Fresh water is not just an economic resource; it is vital for life. With less than one per cent of the world’s total water supply available for human consumption, water has emerged as a valuable and often contentious economic resource in many parts of the world. Growing water shortages affecting 40 per cent of the world’s population, and an increasing demand, present a looming crisis and have increased the scope for "water wars." Professor Diane K. Mauzy’s proposed research project investigates the history of water negotiations and arrangements between Singapore and Malaysia. A small, urbanized and affluent Southeast Asian island, Singapore lacks natural resources and depends on neighbouring Malaysia for half of its water. Malaysia has used water as leverage in many of the chronic bilateral disputes between the once-joined states.

Malaya (now peninsular Malaysia) and the Straits Settlements, with Singapore as its hub, were under coordinated British colonial rule from the early nineteenth century until Malaya became independent in 1957 and Singapore in 1965. In 1963, Singapore joined Malaya and two Borneo states to form Malaysia. It was a turbulent union between the governing Malay majority of Malaysia and the primarily Chinese population of Singapore, and in 1965, after two race riots, Kuala Lumpur expelled Singapore from Malaysia. Two vital water agreements, signed in 1961 and 1962, were confirmed and guaranteed in the 1965 Separation Agreement. Singapore built and maintains the waterworks in Johor (dams, pipelines, reservoirs) and has "the sole and absolute right" to a fixed amount of raw water until 2011 and 2061, respectively. The price of this water is very low (three Malaysian cents per 1,000 gallons), and the treated water that Singapore is obligated to sell back to Johor is well below cost. Over the years Malaysia has used the water issue to solicit concessions from Singapore in other bilateral disputes. At times this has led to much sabre-rattling and threats to "turn off the taps" by Malaysian officials and the media but never by the Malaysian Prime Minister. The caution at the top was in recognition of Singapore’s military strength and its repeated statement that if Malaysia reneged on its water treaty obligations there would be "consequences" — widely believed in both countries to mean immediate military action to restore its water access.

With the expiry date for one of the agreements drawing near in 2011, Singapore has initiated talks with Malaysia about extending the treaty. This seems to have opened the floodgates in Malaysia about historical injustices and accusations of Singapore "profiteering" — Malaysia insists that talks focus solely on renegotiating the pricing formula of the current water treaties, which Singapore rejects. Kuala Lumpur has drummed up considerable nationalist fervor, including "loose talk of war" in January 2003, diverting attention from thorny domestic issues in advance of an upcoming general election. Bilateral relations have now soured markedly. In response, calling the water disputes the "Damocles sword hanging over our heads," Singapore’s Prime Minister says his country needs a different approach to lessen its dependence on Malaysia. The new strategy calls for desalination of sea water, the purification of waste water and an enlarged water catchment area.

These recent developments have the potential to change relations significantly between the two bickering neighbours, away from an older brother/younger brother mentality where Singapore was often expected to make the concessions, to a more equal bargaining position. Professor Mauzy will investigate the history of water negotiations and arrangements between these two nations since their first agreement in 1927, but particularly since Separation in 1965. She plans to collect data through interviews with politicians and experts (university colleagues, journalists, diplomats, civil servants) in Singapore and Malaysia, building on years of contacts in the two states, and also plans to wants to look at a number of government documents and archival materials.

In the last 50 years, there have been 37 violent conflicts between states involving water rights and access to water, according to the United Nations. International law has provided little help in the prevention or permanent resolution of these conflicts, although 200 other water-sharing treaties have been signed globally. This research hopes to contribute to the broader international research being done about conflict over water, water agreements, and control of water resources used as a political tool. Professor Mauzy believes Singapore may offer a model for developing alternative sources of water, from the sea, extracted from moist air, and from sewage. This project will continue long-time research into politics in Singapore and Malaysia and their bilateral relations. - http://www.politics.ubc.ca/index.php?id=3436

DESPITE SMALL SIZEPEACE AND PROSPERITYSINGAPORE IS HEAVILY ARMED

For decades, this small city-state has been an oasis of peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia, a region known for its poverty and instability.

A string of Western corporations opened regional headquarters here, knowing its free-market economy, modern infrastructure, shopping malls and top-flight health care would make executives and their families feel right at home.

Yet, despite that calm, Singapore spends more on defense than many of its much bigger neighbors. Its multibillion-dollar defense budget pays for modern tanks, warplanes and submarines for its military and nuclear fallout shelters for civilians.

By any measure, its defense capabilities are huge for a country that is one-15,000th the size of the United States.

Its military "is quite substantial and out of proportion to the military threat" in the region, says Robert Karniol, the Asia-Pacific editor for Jane's Defense Weekly, a respected journal.

Nearly 10 percent of its 3.2 million people are in the military - 50,000 as full-time professionals and 250,000 on standby as reservists. By comparison, neighboring Malaysia has a military estimated at 115,000 men and Indonesia has about 300,000.

Singapore's strong emphasis on defense through deterrence is the result of its turbulent history.

The island still has bad memories from World War II, when Japanese troops invaded the then British colony from Malaya. In 1965, two years have being cut loose by London, it was expelled from the Malaysian federation, with which it has had periodic disputes.

Since then, Singapore has kept a wary eye on the region, which has seen major wars in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, political instability in Thailand and ethnic and political unrest in Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar.

As a state with an ethnic Chinese majority, it sits nervously between its two much bigger direct neighbors, Malaysia and Indonesia, which have large Muslim majorities.

Despite its limited resources, space and manpower, Singapore has made defense a key pillar of its national agenda. A Defense Ministry manual titled "Defending Singapore in the 21st Century" clearly defines the goal: total defense that encompasses all aspects of society.

Constitutionally, the government can spend up to 6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense each year. For the current financial year, the defense budget totals $4.3 billion, or within the 4 percent-5 percent range of recent years.

By comparison, Thailand's current military spending is 1.5 percent of GDP, Malaysia's is 2.1 percent and Indonesia's 1.7 percent, according to official reports and estimates.

Singapore keeps its military up to strength with the draft, while most countries in the region, including Malaysia and Indonesia, do not have compulsory military service.

Every able-bodied Singaporean male must do 2 or 21/2 years of full-time military duty. Afterward, he undergoes annual training for 13 years. Warrant officers and specialists remain liable for service until age 40 and officers until age 50.

Military service is tough, Jason Ng, a 26-year-old who now works in sales and marketing, says of his army stint that began six years ago. "They really push you to the limit," he says.

Singapore's current focus is on boosting military technology and strengthening defense ties with other countries to better cope with future conflicts as well as unconventional threats such as terrorism and cyber-crime.

The island has military ties with many other countries and with alliances such as the Five Power Defense Arrangement -- which includes Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Britain -- and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Singapore also has agreements that allow it to train its servicemen in other countries and store some of its military equipment there.- AP Report Aug 22, 2000

Since the 1980s, Huxley wrote, the military balance moved decisively in the favour of Singapore, making an offensive strategy - the so-called pre-emptive strike - a realistic option for the island republic.

By the 1990s, Singapore's Armed Forces (SAF) quantative and qualitative strength over the Malaysia Armed Forces (MAF) became well-entrenched.

In 2000, the potential mobilised strength of the SAF stood at 350,000 personnel. By comparison, the MAF totalled only about 145,000 personnel, although 105,000 of these were regulars.

Singapore's army formations, most importantly, the three combined arms divisions - each with integral armour and artillery, and a rapid deployment division - are coherent and highly offensively-oriented, in contrast to their Malaysian equivalents, which during the 1990s remained dispersed thinly throughout the peninsular and were only beginning to develop combined arms capabilities.

Huxley (in"Defending the Lion City") said the SAF's crucial strength lies in its armoured force and air force.

The Singapore Army operates some 120 upgraded Centurion main battle tanks and some 350 AMX-13SMI light tanks. It's air force has more combat aircraft than Malaysia and Indonesia combined.

Together with tanker and airborne early warning aircraft, the Singaporean combat aircraft could wreck havoc in a conflict.

Huxley stated that the SAF with it highly educated soldiers, high-techology equipment and synergistic relations among the three services yielded important military advantages over Malaysia or any other potential adversaries.

He said the economic recession in Malaysia in 1986-1987 and 1997-1998 was an obstacle for its armed forces modernisation and re-equipment.

He said the plans to build major bases in Johor, one each in Gemas and Mersing, would probably strengthen the defences in the south.

What if war broke out between Malaysia and Singapore: Bombs away! [Following scenario is quoted from Pg 58, A Scenario of War with Malaysia.]

IT'S 4am.

The early morning calm is suddenly shattered by the deafening screams of low-flying jets.

Seconds later, Kuantan air base is rocked by multiple explosions, followed by "secondaries" as Malaysia's air assets in aircraft shelters and revetments are obliterated.

Klaxons blaring, pilots are scrambled to whichever aircraft that are still air-worthy, but it's useless. The runways had been cratered.

In the ensuing confusion, reports start streaming in. It seems that this is not an isolated case.

Butterworth checks in and reports that its entire complement of F/A-18D Hornets are now smoking, twisted hulks out on the tarmac.

And the entire Third Division which has overall command over Johor and Malacca had also been annihilated.

The National Power Grid had not been spared, plunging the entire country in darkness, adding to the chaos and confusion.

Reports also indicated that the Ministry of Defence building in Jalan Padang Tembak, Kuala Lumpur, had been hit by at least six GBU-31 1,000-pound JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions).

Even the KLCC had been struck with such ferocity that only the Maxis Tower was left standing.

On Bukit Nanas, only a blackened stump is left of what used to be the Kuala Lumpur Tower.

Down in Johor and Malacca, the situation is much worse. A torrent of armoured vehicles, including tanks, are hogging all the roads linking Johor Baru to Muar and Kota Tinggi, disgorging armed soldiers who took over all the towns.

Senai airport, captured in a pre-dawn attack was being used by the helicopters and planes taking part in the on-going offensive.

On the North-South Expressway, main battle tanks and armoured fighting vehicles together with towed artillery with fighter jets and attack helicopters providing close support were going north, destination unknown.

Reports of troops landing from helicopters were coming in from all over Johor, from Mersing to Muar.

By noon, Johoreans find themselves under Singapore military rule.

If you think the scenario described above are wild imaginings of The Malay Mail writers, think again.

The scenario, in less graphic form, was written by a British scholar, Tim Huxley, in his book Defending the Lion City: The Armed Forces of Singapore.

It was published in 2000 as part of a series which examine the military capabilities of Asian countries by Australian publishing company Allen & Urwin.

Huxley's book, which is available at local bookstores, offers a fascinating look at a little-known but effective military organisation.

Among others, it brought up issues that were almost never discussed - including sensitive questions of war plans with Singapore's neighbours.

Drawing on Israeli and other foreign experts and using only their country's limited resources, the Singaporeans have moulded a technologically sophisticated and large military that is capable of striking far from the island State.

Given the country's absence of natural resources and lack of strategic depth, said Huxley, it's a remarkable achievement.

He said while the Singapore military has not yet been tested in real combat, few observers doubt its professional ability.

In the second chapter of his book, Huxley points out that Malaysia was the most likely adversary to Singapore, with Indonesia second.

He gave a detailed picture of how the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) capabilities were tailored to meet such adversaries.

Huxley wrote: "While it is clear that the SAF is sufficiently flexible in terms of its organisation, equipment and doctrines to be useful in wide national security contingencies, its capabilities have been refined with specific contingencies in mind - above all, the possibility of war with or in Malaysia."

Singapore defence planners have also planned a war with or in Indonesia.

Huxley said such plans have been played in SAF staff college exercises since the 1960s.He said that from the Singapore viewpoint, a war with Malaysia could be triggered due to communal conflict in Malaysia which resulted in the disruption of water supply from Johor.

Singapore, according to Huxley, have not dropped plans for a pre-emptive strike.Huxley further states: "To make intervention possible, the SAF would need to disable the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) with a brutal and fearless pre-emptive offensive or at least retain such capability as to execute such an attack after absorbing an initial(Malaysian) onslaught.

"Probably in conjunction with electronic attacks on the MAF's communication and sensors (such as radars), the SAF would first attempt to establish air superiority by devastating the Malaysian air force - in the first few hours of any conflict - before mounting further air strikes against other military targets.

"Singapore's army would then seize the initiative on the ground with commandos - infiltrated by air and sea - and helimobile Guards unit securing the Malaysian side of the Causeway in Johor Baru and the Second Link bridge in Gelang Patah.

"Combined armed forces, most importantly, armoured battle groups equipped with tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, would then cross into Johor and rapidly advance into the Peninsula.

"They would be supported by Guards battalions and transport helicopters, strike aircraft and attack helicopters."

The Singaporean Navy will also play a vital role by landing troops on Johor's coast while keeping the sea-lanes around the island from any blockage by the Malaysian navy. - Tabloid Malay Mail report on Tim Huxley's book following Malaysian ministers' rejection of author's tipping easy victory for Singapore in a war.Jan 14, 2003http://www.littlespeck.com/content/security/CTrendsSecurity-030114.htm

WATER ISSUE COULD SPARKMALAYSIA-SINGAPOREMILITARY CONFLICT: REPORT

KUALA LUMPUR: A MALAYSIAN ex-army general warned that if the issue of water supply between Singapore and Malaysia is not resolved properly, it may ignite a military conflict, a report said Sunday (Feb 3).

Zaini Mohamad Said, an ex-lieutenant-general said the close ties of the people of the two members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was insufficient to prevent a military conflict.

"In this context, it is crucial the issue of water is addressed with caution by the leaders and the governments of the two countries."A military conflict must be avoided because it will only hurt both countries," he was quoted as saying in the Mingguan Malaysia Malay-language daily.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on January 28 said that Singapore had been delaying negotiations and that "the longer talks are prolonged, the more money Malaysia will lose."

The outspoken premier also said that Malaysia had long been underpaid for water supplied to Singapore, and that Kuala Lumpur now wanted a reasonable price but that Singapore has refused.

Singapore on Saturday rejected allegations by Malaysia that the city-state has been underpaying for the water it gets from its neighbour.

Zaini said military strength was in favour of the tiny republic whose army was equipped with advanced gadgets.

"Its (Singapore's) structure and (war) doctrine is offensive in nature," he said.

Singapore, which is lacking in natural resources, obtains half of its daily water needs from Malaysia's neighbouring Johor state at three sendollars) per 1000 gallons. Its two water agreements with Malaysia expire in 2011 and 2061.

Water supply has been one of a number of issues which have created friction between the two neighbours since Singapore became independent from the Malaysian Federation in 1965. - Agence France Presse.February 3. 2002http://www.singapore-window.org/sw02/020203af.htm

THE ASIANBALANCE OF POWER

Singapore has been an active proponent of continued U.S. military presence in Asia to ensure a regional balance of power. Since the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Subic Bay, Singapore has worked actively to facilitate the dispersal of U.S. forces and spread the political responsibility of hosting the American military presence. It has now offered the U.S. access to its long planned new pier facility at Changi that can accommodate a U.S. aircraft carrier.http://www.india-seminar.com/2000/487/487%20raja%20mohan.htm