Republican Caucus History

In the past four Republican presidential caucuses, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the nomination twice and the presidency once. The main role of the caucuses is seen as an important test of strength that winnows the field. From the start of the modern Iowa caucuses in 1972 through 2004, no candidate who finished worse than third had gone on to win a nomination. In 2008, ultimate nominee John McCain broke the pattern, finishing fourth by a whisker. Besides trimming the field, the caucuses have changed the contours of the race in other ways. In 1988, a disappointing third-place Iowa finish persuaded Vice President George H.W. Bush to change his campaign strategy from an assumption of inevitability to a more aggressive campaign, with more frequent public appearances. In 1996 and 2000, the Iowa caucuses confirmed the front-runner status of Bob Dole and George W. Bush respectively. And in 2008, the caucuses propelled a little-known candidate, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, into national prominence.