England boss Stuart Lancaster has been keen to lower expectation, pointing out that over the last four games home and away, the winning margin between the two sides has only averaged four points.

But Scotland have not won in London since 1983 and have lost their last three games at Twickenham by an average of 16 points.

Everyone will be telling England "this should be a comfortable win" but none of the Scottish boys are going to be thinking of either the history books or that victory over the All Blacks - they won't be intimidated.

Key confrontation?

I look at Scotland's front five, especially that second row of Richie Gray (see graphic at top) and Jim Hamilton, and that pairing is a match for anybody. The 6ft 8in Gray is enormous, in every sense, for the Scots.

I think the tricky conditions they're expecting on Saturday may have played a part - big is beautiful in that situation and he's 6ft 3in and 16 or so stone.

Twelvetrees seems to have developed from a fairly gangly young man into Tarzan, and it's impressive. His move from Leicester to Gloucester, where he's teamed up well with Freddie Burns
and learnt a lot off Mike Tindall,
has certainly paid off.

The man nicknamed '36'
is a good all-round footballer - his passing game is good and his kicking game is great - but he's in there to use his weight, size and speed, as well as his footballing skills.

He'll want to get hold of the ball and have a peg at Ruaridh Jackson and
Matt Scott
in the Scottish midfield.

I think a key game for him came against Leicester. Gloucester lost, but after the match England assistant coach Andy Farrell said Twelvetrees had put in a "monumental" performance in defence.

Before that game his tackling percentage was not even in the high 80s, whereas Brad Barritt's was much higher, but the Tigers game lifted him into the 90s (although it's subsequently fallen back to 87%).

The England selectors had been looking at his defence and he knew what he needed to do to impress them.

Does he have any weaknesses?

One issue - aside from his international inexperience - is the number of turnovers he's conceded in the Premiership. He's good at winning turnovers - indeed he's the most successful this season with 13 - but he's conceded 19 and he can't afford to do that at international level.

He's directly opposite Scott at inside centre and they're similar in size. Neither is quite world class yet in defence but both like to attack.

In the Pro12 Scott's made an impressive number of clean breaks and off-loads and has beaten plenty of defenders, given he's only played eight games compared to Twelvetrees' 13 - and Twelvetrees has played every minute of those matches.

Territorial warfare

The international game has moved from possession being the most important factor to territory being king in the modern game - the key with possession is where you have it, preferably in your opponent's 22.

Saracens centre Barritt punished New Zealand after a wayward kick gave England good field position

This means the kicking game will be vital, especially if we get the conditions predicted, because it is a quick way of making ground.

At the same time though, you can be punished if you kick badly. Barritt's try against New Zealand came a couple of phases after a poor Dan Carter kick, and Ben Foden's try against France in last year's Six Nations came after Morgan ran a poor France kick back - kicking is only as good as the chasing.

You have got to execute your kicking strategy well and there's no doubt Twelvetrees adds to that for England, while Mike Brown is fantastic both in defence and attack in that area.

Who's going to win then?

England are clearly favourites but Scotland look a decent side.

Their back three of Stuart Hogg, Tim Visser and
intriguing debutant Sean Maitland
could be lethal and Sean Lamont, who had the most carries in the entire tournament in 2012 (see graphic at top), gives them plenty of experience.

The Scottish pack is incredibly strong and they will examine England thoroughly, but
I expect the hosts to win by about nine points.

Jerry was talking to BBC Sport's James Standley

* How were the stats worked out? Each direct involvement - eg try, tackle, turnover etc - by a player was recorded and given a points value and weighted against various criteria including position on the pitch and score at the time.

All scores are then added up to give player a match score. Note that centres, flankers etc are considered interchangeable.

The players in the XV were the leading cumulative points scorers in their positions, the stat included on the graphic is their "high point".

Comments

Re 155 I was watching BBC Scotland and you were just as poor and the commentators just as honest. Self pity is not an attractive trait in a country. England whether you like it or not were at least 20pts better. Scotland.'s tries were fortuitous though you played with spirit.

I would simply like to highlight to Jeremy and John and the rest of the production team involved in today's coverage...BBC 1 is being broadcast to the whole of the UK. It is not BBC England. It would do good to remember that.

@151 Agreed. How many times have we let ourselves down in the redzone through a dropped pass, knock on etc.... Yes we can play, but when try to play above our capabilities, then we just look foolish. Been screaming for year.... Back to Basics!

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