Saturday, 16 September 2017

If you ask Cronulla Sharks coach Shane Flanagan, the
Sharks were destined to go back-to-back and claim top honours again in 2017,
making them the first side to do so since the Broncos in 1992-93.

But, in his view, a diabolical performance by the
officials cost his side that opportunity.

Did they though?

Every team cops some rough calls through the course of
the season, which means every side will get the rub of the green. Some calls
have a bigger impact than others undoubtedly. But relying even somewhat on
imperfect humans to be perfect so as to get the result you want is essentially
quite lazy. Players make mistakes but they aren’t hauled before the media
post-match and harangued by their coach for such.

If a coach can accept less than perfection from his
players, why do they expect nothing less than perfection from the officials?

The Sharks in 2017 have been a dismal shadow of their
all-conquering outfit in 2016. They averaged 3.2 tries per game, down from the
4 per game last year. They averaged 3 runs less per game this year, but still
managed to average 25 metres more per game.

Cronulla also averaged nearly a whole try assist less in
2017, over 1 offload less per game, and just over 1 line break assist per game.
They were also close to 2 tackle breaks per game worse off in 2017.

Despite making 4 tackles per game more in 2017, they also
missed 5 and a half tackles more per game, which saw them make 90.23% of all
tackles, better than only Wests Tigers (90.12%), Manly (89.55%) and Penrith
(89.45%). The Sharks also had nearly 2 handling errors more per game. Despite
conceding less penalties this year, Cronulla were still the most penalised team
in the competition, not to mention having the worst completion rate.

Only 5 teams were worse than Sharks when it came to
switching off before halftime. The Sharks conceded 24 of their 68 tries in the
final 20 minutes of the first half, with just Penrith (25), Wests Tigers (26),
Souths & Newcastle (28) and Manly (30) worse. This often saw the Sharks
enter the sheds behind on the scoreboard. To their credit they found ways to
win as indicated by their competition best record in the second half.

That’s a lot of numbers that show the Sharks played a
more restricted style in 2017, a style they abandoned somewhat to great effect
in 2016. And sure enough, the return to this style has seen the side return to
an early exit in the finals.

Flanagan’s 2017 roster has an average age of 27.59 years
old, older than other squad. He has 3 men who all brought up their 300 game
milestones this year and just 5 players in his side under the age of 24. His
side is naturally going to be the one showing less improvement, as his squad is
either at their peak or past their peak. Naturally they are still a very
competitive outfit and one of the top teams in the competition, but as the game
continues to improve, his side will slowly start to get left behind.

He needs an injection of youth and some ad-lib footy
needs to creep into their game to break up the predictability of the machine
he has assembled. His side have become easier to compete against in 2017.

Saturday, 15 July 2017

Another year and another State of Origin series falls the
way of the Maroons after such a promising start from the Blues.

But this year surely is the one that hurts the most for
New South Wales.

They played a Queensland side that has begun its
transition from the dynasty to the next young crop of talent. They were without
Darius Boyd, Billy Slater and Johnathan Thurston at times and both Greg Inglis
and Matt Scott failed to play a part in any of the three games.

Queensland stuck with the as much of the team from 2016
in Game 1 and were belted. They rang in the changes for Game 2 and snuck home.
Two more debutants lined up in the decider and Queensland, without Thurston,
Boyd, Scott and Inglis, strolled to an easy win over the Blues.

The pre-series talk for New South Wales was about whether
Mitch Pearce should be recalled, given his woeful form in Origin. He had been
in brilliant form for the Roosters thus far in the season so it seemed a given
he be selected.

Then came the assumptions by former players and
commentators that the reason New South Wales lost with Pearce in the side was
because Farah was too dominant and overcalled Pearce.

So Farah was not picked. Instead the selectors went with
a new option, the talented Nathan Peats.

What transpired though was Peats became nothing more than
a tackling, stand and pass merchant, denied the opportunity to show any
creativity at all. Across all 3 of his Origin games, he ran the ball 6 times,
had 0 line breaks, 0 try assists, 0 offloads and 0 line break assists.

All of this was done so that Pearce could have full
control of the team and be comfortable to play at his best.

Pearce produced 0 line breaks, 0 try assists and 0 line
break assists. He continued to kick the ball directly to Queensland’s back
three. Every time.

He ran the same play, over and over again, slowly and
poorly.

He regularly botched small plays with his team mate from
the Roosters Boyd Cordner.

Many will say that it is hard for a halfback to play at
their peak when their forwards are struggling. And to a degree it’s true. But
if you had a hooker who was either prepared, or perhaps allowed, to make a few
dummy half scoots to try and get the defence back pedalling, more often than
once every half, that would help the halfback.

You can see in Cameron Smith’s stats across the 3 Origin
games how vital it can be to have your rake running the ball. In Game 1 he made
3 runs for just 9 metres. In Game 3 he made 18 runs for 112 metres. Peats made
around 30 metres in his first two games and a miserly 3 metres in Game 3.

Only one player in the Blues spine pulled their weight
and it was Fullback James Tedesco, while James Maloney was passable at best. He
made 3 of their 6 line breaks (Maloney made the other 3), 3 of their 5 try
assists (Maloney had the other 2) and all 3 of their line break assists.

Also, stop picking fullbacks in the centres. Sure Hayne
and Dugan have had some good games there, but they were defensively poor and
more often than not, failed to get their wingers any decent opportunities, on
the rare occasions that they did pass the ball.

Woods was largely useless, even in the opening game,
Fifita was heavily targeted in the second and third games after a barnstorming
Origin opener. Frizell’s NRL form didn’t carry over and he failed to have much
impact while Jackson was great in Game 2, he seems to be lacking in attack.

But one thing that hasn’t changed is the style of play
and the stubbornness to persist with a failed half. Coach Laurie Daley has been
incessantly hammering the large square peg of Pearce into the small round hole
of being an Origin quality halfback.

It’s time for Daley to go. It’s time for Mitchell Pearce
to go. If neither happens soon, Queensland will have replaced the likes of
Smith, Cronk, Thurston, Slater, Boyd, Scott and Inglis and will be embarking on
yet another dynasty, while Laurie Daley continues hammering away trying to make
a squad of 16 work around 1 player who simply isn’t good enough and doesn’t
deserve the opportunity any more.

Wednesday, 17 May 2017

Since the morning after Origin 3 in 2016 it seems the
media has been obsessing about who will be the hooker should be for the New
South Wales side in 2017.

Robbie Farah is the incumbent rake, with plenty of
statements at the start of the year from coach Laurie Daley that he’s inclined
to stick with him. But naturally as the season has rolled on, plenty of others
have put their hand up with strong claims of unseating Farah.

So with plenty of options on the table coupled with Daley
softening his stance on Farah, what’s needed is some facts as opposed to the
usual biased back and forth. This article is working entirely on statistical
data obtained from the official NRL website and with a simple calculation based
on ranking from best to worst in each field, I have been able to calculate who
the most consistent and best candidate is to pull on the sky blue.

Naturally there will be arguments to be made that some
statistical fields are more important than others, but the purpose of this
exercise is to find the most complete and consistent player in all fields.

Added to the list of Blues candidates is Australian and
Maroons hooker Cameron Smith, to show where the Blues options rank in
comparison.

NSW Candidates

Robbie Farah (Souths and incumbent NSW Origin hooker)

Jayden Brailey (Cronulla)

Damian Cook (Souths)

Apisai Koroisau (Manly)

Michael Lichha (Canterbury)

Cameron McInnes (Souths)

Nathan Peats (Gold Coast)

Kaysa Pritchard (Parramatta)

Peter Wallace (Penrith)

Runs and metres

Cameron Smith averages 9 runs per game, which is vastly
higher than all of the Blues. Cook and Koroisau both average 5.4, with Farah at
5.1. Naturally Smith has made more metres, averaging 57.4 per game, however
Koroisau is not far behind, gaining 53.6 per game, which is impressive given he
runs the ball considerably less. Michael Lichha has 4.4 runs for 48.9 metres
per game, making him the only player averaging more than 10 metres per run.
Metres per run is the only field where Cameron Smith is beaten by all the NSW
Players.

Line and Tackle
Breaks

Koroisau leads the field for line breaks, picking up 3 in
his 10 games so far. McInnes has 2 from as many games. Smith, Lichaa, Farah and
Peats have all yet to register a line break yet this year. Koroisau is also top
of the class for tackle breaks, racking up 15 so far, one clear of McInnes and
6 in front of Smith.

Line Break and Try
Assists

Despite playing just 4 games, Nathan Peats averages 0.75
Line break assists per game which is the best of the lot. Second is Smith and
Farah, who both average 0.6 per game. Peats is also the best when it comes to
try assists, averaging a neat 1 per game while Farah and McInnes are second
with 0.5 per game. Smith comes next with 0.3.

Offloads

Cook is well clear of the field in this category,
averaging 1.1 per game, while Farah, Pritchard and Wallace are all tied for
second with 0.6 per game.

Defence

McInnes is the best tackler here, making more tackles and
missing less than everybody else. He has made 437 and missed just 6, at a rate
of 98.65%. Farah is next at 97.21% while Smith runs fourth at 96.21%

Discipline

Koroisau, Farah and Brailey are the least penalised
players on average, giving away 0.4 penalties each per game. Smith averages
0.6. Ball handling is quite good amongst all, with everyone under 1 turnover
per game. McInnes and Cook have had just 1 error each while Smith has had 5.

There are 12 fields all up and each field is converted to
an average per game. The best in each field scores 1 point, second best gets 2
points etc. The player with the lowest total across all twelve ranks is deemed
the best.

There is just three points difference between the top 5
players, which shows just how close this is.

McInnes has ranked first in two fields and never ranked
last, while Koroisau ranked first in three fields and last twice. McInnes
therefore is more consistent and would thus be ranked as the Number 1 hooker
for NSW.