The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Our smallest diving duck, the incredibly cute little Bufflehead, nests only in tree cavities. As a result, it is missing as a breeding bird from areas north of tree line where, according to Audubon's climate model, the climate is otherwise suitable. The model shows a major decrease in available area in boreal forest of west-central Canada, currently the heart of the species’ breeding range; a lack of nesting sites may make it challenging for the Bufflehead to move into new areas farther north. Available winter area is likely to shift considerably northward by 2080, especially in the east.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.