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Thursday, February 14, 2013

Time is running for March elections

UPDATEDAccording a February 7 post if elections are to be celebrated March 17 for a new president the end of the Chavez era must be announced this week, say, tomorrow at the latest.... Announcement next week almost pushes elections to sometime in April with a cumbersome Easter Week holiday in between not propitious for campaigning for the regime who needs all on duty to distribute the stuff to buy votes. In other words, May 5. Stay tuned for the next 48 HOURS!!!!!Update. Maybe I dashed this note a tad too fast. Of course this prediction as explained earlier is based on the presumption that chavismo will 1) stick to a minimum of legalese to make the election believable and 2) that their internal succession problems are sorted out.

Unfortunately for them (I hope for us), the devaluation of last Friday may mean that they need money to buy votes. That implies that until the devaluation effects take place and that they can pay off some of the internal debts to keep people happy and vote for them, it will require at least a couple of months. Then May 5 would be the earliest date that they are contemplating (assuming they can keep Chavez alive). If they indeed use the devaluation to pay off wages and related public sector debt then it makes sense to try to wait until May for a vote but no latter because the economic problems linked to inflation will start to be noted by the populace as soon as late April....

At any rate, considering that municipal elections are called for July the only thing we can be sure is that presidential elections will be mid June at the latest. So this is the current calendar

March 17: Chavez era ends this week [This is my rational first pick because that date they are still certain to win]

Late April or May 5: at least three weeks of campaign after Easter week holiday. They have sorted their shit and remove Chavez mid March while paying all their debts then increasing minimal wage and old age pensions. The early April primaries would be a test run for the general election.

Late May to mid June: they are in trouble and need to gain time. The PSUV primaries become all important because they could decide whether Maduro will be the candidate. [This is my second pick because I think that the internal trouble is getting worse by the day and they are nowhere close to solve it, not at least until that devaluation fresh cash flows in and primaries settle scores. But by then the opposition chances start to grow]

From various tweets, based on media transmissions and comments, principally from Alberto Ravell, Esteban Gerbasi (whom I take with a grain of salt), Marquina,et al, I put together the below-noted and arrived at a logical conclusion:

****My lay opinion is that Ch is dying by slow asphyxiation, undergoing a tremendous amount of pain in the process, including in the bones which is the worst.

Though I want this now 69-day chapter in Havana to end, so that the Vz public can gain the clarity, to which we are entitled, I cannot in all human conscience wish Ch to feel the deep, physical pain of his dying moments. Sorry to disapoint the Mesdames Defarges, knitting before the guillotine.

Miguel Octavio has reported Marquina's comments in his Feb 14th post. Personally and definitely as a layperson with a gut feel, I think Ch.'s death could be days away.

I wonder if that's the feeling shared by the Brazilian vidente, Reinaldo Dos Santos, when he recently issues tweets to Leopoldo and Capriles, suggesting that they take advantage of their golden hour -- now. http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/02/13/los-misteriosos-tweets-del-profeta-reinaldo-a-leopoldo-y-capriles/

(It is sad to see that in the political history of a nation, it takes a vidente to motivate two oppo politicians.)

If we could do the inventory of how many major political decisions have been taken in Venezuela after astrological consultation a lot of people would be surprised.... I guess only India coudlk beat Venezuela on this regard :)

well, let's not forget that on the other hand that they pushed an ex-tempore devaluation may also mean that they want cash next months to buy votes through april and may. so they may daring to think about a post may date which i think could be fatal for them....

I think you are overestimating the electability of Maduro. The Chavistas were loyal to Chavez, not to his party nor his ideology, and certainly not to any of the pantheon of lackluster and incompetant PSUV officials that he has surrounded himself with. Without Chavez, I don't think they can win an election, now or at anytime in the forseeable future. Why else would they have waited as long as they have?

Having said that, you are assuming that they will hold elections. I don't think they will risk it. I think they will just declare that Maduro as the titular president was Chavez's wish, and they will find a way to declare it "Constitutional". And even then, the system will still collapse this year.

A freshly deceased Chavez, or even, a resigned and zombified Chavez sort of alive until election days could operate miracles and even elect Maduro. What is doing Maduro in faster than his own personal flaws is the "indice de escasez" as in circa 2007.

I think these are old photos to push the timing farther out, this gives the ploters oxygen on the issue of chavez's status. Now they can keep him "alive" for a little longer. you gotto to give credit to the cubans, they seem to be always a step ahead.

Let's not push conspiracy theory beyond what is necessary. there are several pictures and it is unlikely that they would photoshop that many Granmas in them. Read my next entry and you will see that no photoshopping could make any picture of Chavez look good, physically or politically.

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