5 takeaways from German SPD grand coalition vote

Martin Schulz, leader of Germany's social democratic SPD party, seen at his party's extraordinary congress in Bonn, Germany on January 21, 2018, has suffered one setback after another | Sascha Schuermann/AFP via Getty Images

Martin Schulz, leader of Germany's social democratic SPD party, seen at his party's extraordinary congress in Bonn, Germany on January 21, 2018, has suffered one setback after another | Sascha Schuermann/AFP via Getty Images

BONN, Germany — Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) voted Sunday to pursue coalition talks with Angela Merkel’s center-right alliance in a too-close-for-comfort convention ballot that had much of the country (not to mention the EU) on tenterhooks.

The margin of victory — 362 in favor versus 279 against — looked more impressive from afar than it did in the room.

Seasoned convention-goers are used to lopsided votes. A simple show of hands is usually enough to determine a winner. Not Sunday. The first round made it clear the vote was too close to call, requiring a head count. The convention hall in Bonn fell silent for several nervous minutes as party officials tallied the votes.

A leadership initiative supported by less than 90 percent can be considered a rebuke at such a gathering. Sunday’s 56 percent “Yes” vote was more like a slap across the face.

The SPD advertised Sunday’s meeting as a public display of its democratic ideals. It felt more like an awkward, five-hour group therapy session.

Still, there’s no denying the convention will be remembered a key moment in German politics, one with far-reaching repercussions.

Here are five takeaways from the vote:

1. Long live the 'GroKo'

In all likelihood, a new “grand coalition” between the two biggest parties, known as "GroKo" in the German vernacular, will come to pass. At this point, it would take a substantial shock to derail it. Germans have already waited four months since election day to get this far. It will probably take another two months to finalize the deal. A collapse of the talks at this stage would be met with a thrashing at the ballot box for both sides, which are still reeling from historic losses the last time around. Yes, the SPD membership still has to give its OK to a final deal. But it’s worth remembering the average age of the SPD’s 440,000 members is 60. It’s a risk-averse bunch. The GroKo is likely to throw this crowd another welfare bone in the coming weeks to keep them sweet.

2. Angela rises from the ashes

Angela Merkel’s detractors often describe her as a closet socialist so it might be fitting that her political future as chancellor was decided not by her Christian Democrats, but by the SPD. Sunday’s decision was as much a vote on Merkel as it was on the SPD’s future. It would appear they are intertwined. Truth be told, many Social Democrats are quite comfortable with Merkel, despite the fact that she’s coopted many of their policies. Merkel might still be in her political twilight, but her future should be measured in years, not days.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks on during a press conference at the headquarters of her Christian Democratic Party in Berlin on January 21, 2018 | Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images

3. Martin Schulz is the SPD’s tallest dwarf

In the run-up to Sunday’s vote, a leader of the Bavarian wing of Merkel’s bloc called on SPD leader Schulz to bring his party’s “dwarf uprising” under control, a reference to the strong resistance to a GroKo from the party’s rank-and-file. Schulz’s failure to do so further chips away at his credibility. His rambling speech on Sunday landed with a dud. His central message — that a new general election would be even worse than another GroKo — was less than inspiring. The former European Parliament president was styled as his party’s savior when he took over last year. Since then, he’s suffered one setback after another, including leading his party to its worst-ever election result. Many in the SPD now believe the decades Schulz spent toiling in obscurity in Brussels left him ill-prepared for the rough-and-tumble of domestic politics. His days atop the SPD are likely numbered.

4. The SPD is a house divided

Two stars emerged during Sunday’s convention: Andrea Nahles, the party’s parliamentary leader, and Kevin Kühnert, the head the SPD’s youth wing, known as the Jusos. Both delivered impressive speeches that won over the room. Yet they were advocating different sides of the argument. Some observers are convinced the “No” camp would have won, were it not for Nahles’ passionate appeal shortly before the vote. And without Kühnert’s tireless campaign, the “NoGroko” resistance may have never gotten off the ground. The SPD may have come to a decision on Sunday, but they are by no stretch in agreement. If anything, the convention deepened the party’s fissures. Debate in a party might be healthy, civil war less so.

Martin Schulz (first row, center), leader of Germany's social democratic SPD party, and leadership members hold up their voting cards during an SPD party congress in Bonn, Germany, on January 21, 2018 | Kay Nietfeld/AFP via Getty Images

5. Let EU reform begin

Champagne will be flowing in the European Commission’s executive chambers Monday morning. (Even more than usual, that is.) With the EU dream couple of Merkel and Schulz poised to take control in Berlin, they can lock arms with France’s Emmanuel Macron and deliver Europe from its doldrums. Or so the fairy tale goes. What is more certain is that Brussels can return its attention to Brexit, upcoming budget negotiations and, most important, preparing for EU reform. An SPD rejection on Sunday would have threatened all of the above and more.

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Veritas-Semper

Sounds to me like two wounded beasts (Merkel and Schultz) are breathing a sigh of relief and attempting to make things whole again. But, lurking in the wings is now/will be the AfD as the official opposition party and no matter how much the Merkel-Schultz team will want to make Humptydumpty whole again, it will not pass. Sparks will fly. And, whatever comes out of the new GroKo, it will be short-lived, as both parties will continue to shed voters until the next general election.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 1:27 AM CET

Corni

Germans are putting a brave face vis-à-vis this awkward lapse in their internal politics, but their pride is in tatters and do realize that their pride has been seriously dented, thanks to Mutti Merkel.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 1:54 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

Although Mrs Nahles speaking style is not exactly my cup of tea :-), in case you watched live (assuming you did, i switched on phoenix livestream and got up real early because of the importance of the issue), she appeared rather agitated and slightly hysterical. LOL. No doubt though that she made quite an impression, as did IMO Scharping.

@Veritas-Semper & Corni: as the two of you keep bashing on both Merkel’s and Schultz’s ‘weakness’ …. in a continued GroKo (Herr Kartnitschnig explains above why this is going to be the moist likely outcome) they will be anything but weak, and rest assured, they both will not let go of their importance in Brussels. if you count on Germany being ‘weak’ and giving in to the maybot’s pleas for special this and Sonder- that – better forget about it. Won’t happen.

May i remind you that mrs maybot’s political career also depends on a coalition, the DUPers she bought herself with 1 billion of our taxes? As the talks in Brussels proved in December, Miss Foster as master of the puppet-on-a-string called May can derail and crash her ‘decisions’ any given minute …. as they oranges showed in an impressive and well-staged show for all the world to see, they humilated May in front of the entire world. They can pull the maybot’s leash tighter as they please.

As both Merkel’s and Schultz’s careers depend on a successful cooperation, they will cooperate in a sensible and well-balanced manner, be it only out of simple career tactics. If one loses, so does the other one. They both wish to win-win. Merkel and Schultz are operating on similar / same levels.

The maybot and Foster are imbalanced … the maybot depends 101% on the DUPers cooperation, she has an awful lot to lose. The DUPers can play games – they have nothing to little to lose.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 6:06 AM CET

JPM

Oh Prissy, be happy. This news is GOOD for May and BREXIT – the prospects for BREXIT negotiations with German political upheaval in the background would be MUCH worse!

Posted on 1/22/18 | 8:47 AM CET

EUdoublestandards

Honestly, at this point I pretty much think Germans are so brainwashed they’d all jump off a cliff if Mutti told them to.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 9:00 AM CET

EUdoublestandards

Honestly, at this point I pretty much think Germans are so brainwashed they’d all jump off a cliff if Mutti told them to.

OI should know. I am but a filthy brainless brainwashed kipper and i am jumping off the white cliffs of dover even before the maybutt gets in her tracks ….

Posted on 1/22/18 | 9:18 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@JPM
“Oh Prissy, be happy. This news is GOOD for May and BREXIT – the prospects for BREXIT negotiations with German political upheaval in the background would be MUCH worse!”

Tell those brekkies 😀 😀 :-D. These quarterwits won’t get it, though.

brexit for me isn’t but entertainment – and should it actually happen, it will cost me some time during my frequent travels to the continent. Other than that, we made our preparations instantly after ref and moved all our money out of the country. OUR standards in living won’t decline, we shall not need to economize. There are advantages in having 2nd residence in other countries .-D, unlike the brekkies.

Let the brekkies finance the mess of their own making.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 9:27 AM CET

Ratgeber

Meanwhile the crime rate in Germany is going up, up and up. Last week were riots in Cottbus where natives had street fights with new citizens. This will all end up very bloody. The German society has never been so divided.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 10:00 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@Ratgeber
“Meanwhile the crime rate in Germany is going up, up and up”

guilherme

mGuy

“With the EU dream couple of Merkel and Schulz poised to take control in Berlin, they can lock arms with France’s Emmanuel Macron and deliver Europe from its doldrumsEuropean money to German coffers and what’s left of European self-respect to feed French imperial megalomania”
There. I’ve fixed it for you. You’re welcome

Posted on 1/22/18 | 8:17 PM CET

Kyle

This is a desperate move of the elite ruling class in Germany to hang on at all costs. The way their elections are structured it is not really possible for a movement or party to gain control with just one election. But the next one will be worse for the elite than the last. Yes, Brussels can take a sigh a relief this morning, but there are still thousands of “immigrants” that are in old U.S Army barracks that are still being processed and will be released soon. The EU media is worse than the U.S media about lying to the public but they will believe their own eyes. Merkel has giving Europe away in exchange for cheap labor, and she does not even understand what she has done.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 8:42 PM CET

edel

@Ratgeber, it is a complex issue than just saying “crime rate in Germany is going up, up and up”.
Yes, there there has been recently a report on crime by the by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences ordered by the Germany’s Ministry of Family Affairs and concluded a rise of crime between 2015 and 2016 of 10.4% and migrants are indeed the main source of that spike. But then one has to get into the details to see what happens.

1) Vast majority of crime increase is among migrants themselves, not toward Germans.

2) Reports of crime is twice as likely to be reported when a foreigner is involved than a national German.

3) Most crimes are from those original of north Africa, not Afghanistan or Syria. This is relevant because north Africans have very slim chance of being granted asylum so they seen their stay in German soil as short.

4) Well, the German population just increased substantially too.

5) There is a clear link of male migrants vs when in family with crime (another reason on the different crime rates of those of north Africa and those of middle east.)

Migrants are always a challenge to integrate, we should not deny that. However, with good policies on integration there is no doubt brings prosperity to any nation.

By the way, I had opposed Merkel policy on the Syrian migrants, but for very different reason than given by those who oppose it but no need to say why here. Now, when hundreds of thousands are accepted in some less time, Germany has to dedicate the resources to accommodate the integration. In the long term, Germany (and Europe) will benefit for sure.

Posted on 1/22/18 | 11:07 PM CET

Ratgeber

@edel

You should read the official BKA-report and not some interpretations and conclusions from an obscure institute in Zurich. By the way the ETH in Zurich is a credible organisation.

Argysh

Speaking as a German… congrats! Great summary of what happened in Bonn. Haven’t read anything remotely concise and complete in German media.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 3:05 AM CET

edel

@ Ratgeber:

1) QS World University Report rates the University of Zurich among 100 best in the world, and among top 25 in Europe. In my experience, reports conducted by any university among top 200 are equally serious. Don’t confuse prestige names with competency.

2) The conclusions and interpretations are based on collected data, not taken out of the blue. I welcome your interpretation on the data.

3) The latest BKA report is for 2016. This is what says in Crime trends:
“The total number of recorded criminal offences increased by 0.7% compared to the previous year…The total number of recorded criminal offences excluding offences against foreigners law decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous year”.

Now, there are some serious blood crime that has increased severely in 2016. The perpetrators are not the refugees per se but rather two groups; that one instigated by IS (usually using north African people trying to destabilize Germany) and the increasing animosity between Turks and Kurds (It is well known how Erdogan is using Germany as an extension of his aggressive foreign policy too).

All social policies are expensive and have inherited risks, especially in the short term, but does not mean we should keep the doors shut to human desperation. The US had integration problems with (well… the Spanish, the English, the Dutch, the Germans, the Irish, the Italians, the Chinese, the Africans, the Japanese, the Polish, the Arabs and now the Mexicans and with each wave the same arguments over and over… at the end they all here fine. The problem are not migrants, but having policies with either false expectations or, more commonly, that marginalize them from participating fairly in society.

Other than that the user ‘edel’ explained rather well – thanks, edel! – the recent studies which, BTW, also had been a topic in the german morning news ‘Morgenmagazin’ some weeks ago, presented by Christian Pfeiffer. You might consider checking their Mediathek.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 7:52 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@edel
“By the way, I had opposed Merkel policy on the Syrian migrants, but for very different reason than given by those who oppose it but no need to say why here. Now, when hundreds of thousands are accepted in some less time, Germany has to dedicate the resources to accommodate the integration. In the long term, Germany (and Europe) will benefit for sure!

Same here, i also did not share her opinion of the grexit. Methinks they simply should have let greece drop out.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 7:54 AM CET

edel

I understand you @Priscilla du Bleu on grexit.

When Greece joined the EU I remember reading how academics knew even then its government were cooking the books to comply and still it was accepted. Now, once it is a member, I think there is a duty to try to aid if genuine reforms are done (so far did not see much though). Besides the image of a cohesive EU, I presume Merkel was advised that letting Greece go would be a high risk of them forming an economic-political alliance with Moscow, and potentially luring some Balkan countries along too.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 8:49 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@edel:

Again we agree on Greece. I am with you that it made sense to keep them finally in the club, what i despised was their lack of getting their Hintern in die Hoehe and changing anything. I could not see many genuine changes in neither their attitude nor their administration. They simply relied on the EU to pay for their own deficiencies.

What i mainly disagreed on with Merkel was her then statement that if one country leaves, the EU would fall apart (sinngemaess, bin grad zu faul zum googlen, aber Du erinnerst Dich vermutlich eh).. Glad to see she came to her senses in the brexit issue. GB will be leaving, and she makes no efforts in keeping them in the club but insists on her stern stance.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 9:22 AM CET

guilherme

Edel,
“letting Greece go would be a high risk of them forming an economic-political alliance with Moscow, and potentially luring some Balkan countries along too”
Culturally the Balkans are closer to the orthodox Russia than to the catholic/protestant part of Europe. The West insists on the Balkans EU membership primarily on the base of its strategic position relative to Russia.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 10:32 AM CET

Priscilla du Bleu

@guilherme
“The West insists on the Balkans EU membership….”

The ‘west’ does not insist on balkan members membership …. if they wish to leave, they may. However, most of them know very well where their bread is buttered,

Posted on 1/23/18 | 11:02 AM CET

edel

Well @guilherme, in the Balkans culturally only Serbia feels close to Russia; there is a strong history why besides the spiritual believes. What I meant is that Serbia now is fully landlocked and physically and psychologically isolated from Russia, but if Greece were to end up in the Russian sphere of influence, Serbia would see far less isolated than it is now and would be less tempted to join the EU.

Like @Priscilla du Blue mentioned, the EU is not pressing this time around much for Serbia to join; they are just letting the process take its time With the exception of Croatia, UK was usually the country that more pressed for the East European membership expansion (the irony). Serbia, for sure, is institutionally speaking more than ready to join the EU (far more than Greece, Romania and Bulgaria were at their time) but many people are still skeptical at the West and there are some valid reasons for it.

Posted on 1/23/18 | 8:32 PM CET

freddie silver

@ edel,
“…The problem are not migrants, but having policies with either false expectations or, more commonly, that marginalize them from participating fairly in society….”
I continue to be astonished by the extremely naive views conveyed by your comments. Certain migrants, and you know well who they are, are marginalizing themselves. They are not interested in “participating fairly in the society” which can be explained by the fact that back in their own countries they never got involved in their society and did not have the civic education required for such attitudes. The receiving society is foreign to them, they do not feel part of it nor will they ever because their main goal is to bring the host civilization to their own level.