This paper uses open sources to examine any topic with the potential to
cause threats to public safety or national security.

INTRODUCTION

1. The 22nd of July, 1999, may have marked the thirty-first anniversary of
modern international terrorism. On that date in 1968, three members of the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) hijacked an El Al Boeing
707, en route from Rome to Tel Aviv, carrying ten crew and 38 passengers. The
aircraft was flown to Algiers' Dar al-Bayda Airport, where lengthy negotiations
were undertaken for the eventual release of passengers, crew, aircraft and
hijackers. The incident is widely regarded as a principal initiator of the
deadly continuum of international terrorist attacks which have exerted
significant political influence during the past three decades.

2. An early and ongoing victim of terrorism, the commercial airlines industry
has been a focus of domestic and international incidents. Initially, attacks
against aircraft demonstrated publicity value, often achieved their aim, and
proved attractive to state sponsors. The industry responded in a positive and
responsible manner by implementing security improvements and fostering
international protective cooperation. Hijacking and armed attacks occur less
frequently in today's world -- a measure of improved defensive awareness -- although
still posing a risk in locations where preventive measures are not stringently
observed. A greater danger today lies in the sabotage or bombing of commercial
aircraft, a menace which will only diminish in the face of constantly improving
security precautions.

3. The changing threat to the airlines industry underscores the dynamic
nature of terrorism. Motivations, targeting, strategy, tactics -- even
logistics -- continue to evolve, in keeping with efforts on the part of security
agencies to meet the challenges and to stay ahead of the dangers. Terrorist
atrocities in Algeria, characterized by the horrific slaughter of women and
children; bombs hidden aboard a train in Pakistan which claimed 23 lives and
injured 75 others; and the deaths of more than 260 persons as the result of
truck-bomb explosions at the US Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar-es-Salaam,
Tanzania, are reminders that terrorists retain the determination and ability to
strike ruthlessly at a broad range of targets in many locations.

4. A multifaceted phenomenon, terrorism demands extraordinary
domestic and international collaboration to combat the hazards it presents. Over
the past 10 years, improved intergovernmental cooperation has contributed to a
notable drop in the number of international terrorist incidents.1
Despite the reduction in incidents, terrorist violence in many parts of the
world will continue to promote an uncertain security environment, and will
remain an ongoing threat to international and domestic stability and to the
lives and livelihood of hundreds of innocents.

DISCUSSION

5. Motivation. Originally reflecting a largely left-wing
ideological foundation, today's terrorists are increasingly likely to be
motivated by campaigns of ethnic nationalism or religious extremism. Often the
two go hand in hand, such as the aspirations of Sikh militants for an
independent state of Khalistan or the fundamentalist Egyptian Islamic Jihad
(EIJ), which seeks to establish an Islamic state in Egypt.

6. Religious Extremism. Islamic extremists literally pose the
largest danger in terms of religious terrorism. In part an outcome of magnitude
of numbers and Islam's global reach, it is also because, unlike the cohesive
grouping of the past, many militant Islamists are individuals who do not owe
allegiance to any particular organization, making identification and trace
checks very difficult. Sunni terrorists, such as Ramzi Yousef, convicted in the
New York Trade Center bombing, tend to be representative of this trend, whereas
Shi'a terrorists continue to pursue their goals in a more collective fashion,
obtaining direction and support from Iran. Although the Sunni-Shi'a schism
remains, some cooperation between members of the two branches of Islam has been
evident.

7. Muslim terrorists are often Mujahadeen, devoted to Islam and committed to
Jihad, ("Holy War"), possessing combat experience of such locations as
Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Chechnya. Well-schooled in handling weapons, explosives
and communications equipment, they know the value of the Internet, fax machines,
cellular telephones and encryption. Increasingly sophisticated and willing
travellers, they have access to excellent false documentation and international
contacts, and can blend easily into a local émigré community, where they can
plan and execute attacks without being readily identified. It is their nebulous,
unstructured characteristics, combined with zealous dedication, which contribute
in large measure to the menace they present. Osama bin Laden is one such
extraordinary example, made several times more dangerous by virtue of his
immense wealth, personal capabilities, and charisma.

8. Extremist militants of other faiths also have an involvement in terrorist
violence and must not be ignored. Christian religious groups, such as the Aryan
Nations, are active in North America, and are becoming more closely associated
with the Militia Movement. The Jewish Defence League maintains a presence in
North America as well, but it is in Israel and the Occupied Territories where
the combination of nationalism and religious fervour manifests itself in acts of
Jewish terrorism.

9. Nationalism. Ethnic nationalism continues to be a
significant motivational factor in a number of terrorism campaigns, some of
which are long-standing (Northern Ireland, Basques, Palestinians, Kurds) and
others which are relatively recent (Uighers, Timorese, Achenese). Individually
or in combinations, nationalism-separatism-irridentism have demonstrated a
notable resurgence since the collapse of the former Soviet Union (FSU); several
states currently experiencing politically motivated violence were previously
members of the FSU or communist entities. Ideology does play a role in some
nationalist movements, but the more usual accompaniment is religious
fundamentalism. Strong religious beliefs and nationalist-separatist goals
represent a particularly effective motivational combination.

10. Ideology. The role of ideology has not been completely
overtaken by the influence of religion. A number of left-wing movements continue
to exist, such as the Turkish Revolutionary People's Liberation Party - Front
(DHKP-C), the Peruvian Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), and the Naxalites of
India. Animal-Rights supporters and Environmentalists -- the Issue Groups -- tend to
be found on the left of the political spectrum, as well. Right-wing motivation
is much more prevalent, however. Racist groups, typified by the Ku Klux Klan,
the UK's Combat- 18 (C-18) and various skinhead aggregations (the latter
especially prevalent in Germany) form the core of the right-wing movement. Many
of the Christian extremist movements are strongly right-wing in nature, as are
groups which form the Militia Movement in North America.

11. State sponsorship. State sponsorship of terrorism remains a
significant concern. Support by state sponsors through funding, safe haven,
weapons and logistics is important to the operation of many terrorist
organizations. The US State Department continues to list the governments of
Iran, Cuba, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and North Korea as state sponsors of
terrorism. International cooperation against terrorism, however, in conjunction
with political realities and economic difficulties, has been successful in
reducing the global level of state sponsorship. Notwithstanding the positive
gains, the curtailment of state support in some cases has induced terrorists to
turn to purely criminal enterprises for fundraising purposes, including
involvement with narcotics trafficking.

12. Targeting and Methodology. Improved international cooperation
against terrorism and strengthened security for diplomatic and military
facilities have prompted a shift in terrorist targeting and methodology:

random attacks on tourists and the deliberate killing of foreign-aid and
NGO workers are disturbing trends;

incidents of kidnapping and hostage-taking have become frequent
occurrences in South America and the former Soviet Union;

terrorist attacks focused on economic infrastructures can be expected to
continue, including those related to energy distribution, transportation,
banking and tourism;

hoaxes, particularly bomb threats, have been employed on occasion to
seriously disrupt transportation and tourism, causing significant local
impact;

the Internet is becoming a resource more frequently used by terrorists as
a means to access information, spread propaganda, raise funds, communicate,
and plan operations; and

the possibility of a terrorist threat involving government and commercial
computer-driven applications is a growing concern.2

13. The gun and the bomb retain the lead as favoured methods of terrorist
assault, as witnessed by the shooting death of former provincial governor Hakim
Said in Pakistan and the grenade attack against an Israeli bus stop in
Beersheba. Vehicle bombs have proven a particularly attractive medium for
terrorists, in part because the trend in recent years has been toward high
casualty, indiscriminate targeting, and in part because of ease of manufacture,
delivery, capacity, and lethality, with instructions on the Internet and
components widely available. Threats and incidents of suicide attacks have
increased in some regions, such as the Middle East and Sri Lanka, and are likely
to be repeated.

14. One of the first uses of a chemical nerve agent in a terrorist attack, by
the Aum Shinri Kyo cult in Tokyo in 1995, has been widely viewed as the crossing
of a threshold. It is a theory reinforced by evidence uncovered recently to the
effect that Osama bin Laden is interested in chemical and biological weaponry.
The Tokyo attack has evoked a number of serious concerns, among which are fears
that:

some terrorists may now consider public indifference to be such that a
more spectacular incident involving a higher casualty rate is necessary to
attract attention;

the effectiveness of improved security measures may prompt terrorists to
seek a different method of conducting an attack; and

a group may have reached a stage of frustration and sense of impotence
such that it will pursue any avenue in attempts to achieve its goal.

The approach of the Millennium is considered to raise the potential for
independent action by individuals with extreme beliefs, especially those
associated with cults, increasing the possible resort to a chemical, biological
or nuclear radiation device.

15. The use of a nuclear weapon remains the least likely scenario, given
current levels of security surrounding nuclear weapons and the undoubted
reluctance of any state to support the use of such a weapon for terroristic
purposes. The dispersal of a radioactive substance in a terrorist incident does
remain a possibility. Nonetheless, despite the seemingly advantageous potential
of nuclear, chemical or biological methodology, conventional weapons are still
considered to be favoured by terrorists, principally because of familiarity and
ease of use.

16. Future casualty rates associated with domestic and international
terrorist incidents will vary. Generally more frequent, domestic incidents are
usually the result of a shooting or bombing attack directed against security
forces or specific civilian opponents; such incidents produce smaller numbers of
casualties. Occasionally the numbers of casualties are higher, such as an
incident aboard commercial transportation, or one involving a car-bomb or an
explosive device placed in a crowded area, as was the case in the bombing of the
Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. International incidents are characterized by
large-scale casualties because the incidents, although less frequent, are
designed to achieve maximum publicity and shock effect.

GLOBAL REVIEW

17. The United States will continue to be the major target of international
terrorist activity. Despite Canada's relatively high-profile military
involvement in the former Yugoslavia and in the Gulf, Canada and Canadians
remain fortunate in recently not having been targeted by terrorists. Canadians
abroad, however, must recognize the risk of being in the wrong place at the
wrong time and, because of physical similarities, of being mistaken for
Americans.

18. Activities associated with the historic Northern Ireland peace agreement,
signed in May 1998, at first made encouraging progress, but then encountered
difficulties. Elections of the new, 108-seat power-sharing legislative assembly
were completed, with David Trimble, a Protestant unionist, elected
First-Minister, and Seamus Mallon, a Catholic nationalist, Deputy First-
Minister. Contentious issues remain, including disarmament, but participants
have indicated their determination to make the peace agreement a success.

19. Rogue elements such as the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), the
Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA), and the Real Irish Republican Army
(RIRA) still pose a deadly security threat. The RIRA claimed responsibility for
the 15 August 1998 car-bomb in Omagh, which claimed 29 lives and wounded 330,
making it the worst single attack in Northern Ireland since 1969. However, INLA
called a truce in late August and RIRA declared a complete cessation of military
activity in September; both the major loyalist groups, the Ulster Defence
Association (UDA) and the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) announced a joint
ceasefire in 1994. The CIRA remains the only group not to have indicated a
cessation of hostilities.

20. Across the Channel in France, risks remain from the spillover of the
Algerian strife. In an unfortunate example of being in the wrong place at the
wrong time, a Montreal woman was one of four people killed and her husband one
of dozens injured when a bomb believed planted by Algerian extremists exploded
in December 1996 on the Paris Metro.

21. Although its ranks have been drastically thinned as a consequence of
cooperative efforts between the Spanish and French security forces, the Basque
separatist group ETA continues to pose a serious threat in Spain. Popular
support for the terrorist group has waned, however, especially in the wake of a
series of killings of municipal officials; ETA murdered three representatives of
Partido Popular, Spain's ruling party, during the first two months of 1998. A
particularly brutal and horrific incident was the slaying of municipal
councillor Alberto Jimenez Becerril and his wife as they returned from a dinner
party in Seville.

22. ETA declared a ceasefire in mid-September 1998, but announced recently
that the ceasefire would end in December, 1999. Earlier in the year, three small
bomb attacks in Madrid were claimed by the October First Anti-Fascist Resistance
Group (GRAPO), a radical Marxist group which had been inactive for several
years.

24. The shadowy 17 November terrorist organization, which surfaces with
attacks in Athens from time to time, continues to elude authorities.
Anti-government, anti-NATO, anti-Turkish, and anti-American, the group has
murdered a number of American diplomatic personnel and Greek officials over the
past twenty years.

25. Despite the arrest of Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) leader, Abdullah "Apo"
Ocalan, Turkish security forces remain concerned with an ongoing threat of
terrorist violence from the PKK, as well as from several smaller left-wing
groups such as the Communist DHKP-C. Bombings have occurred sporadically in
Istanbul and Ankara, frequently intended to adversely influence the tourist
trade.

26. Across the Mediterranean, in North Africa, the Algerian Armed Islamic
Group (GIA) continues its anti-regime campaign of bombings within major cities,
especially Algiers, as well as conducting horrific attacks against villagers,
often characterized by the slitting of throats or decapitation. Women and
children are not spared in the attacks.

27. In Egypt, incidents involving security forces and domestic terrorists in
the Upper Nile Valley occur intermittently -- also partly designed to have an
adverse impact on the tourist trade with the intent of damaging the Egyptian
economy. As well, occasional attacks are directed toward Coptic Christians in an
attempt to introduce a split between the two religious communities.

28. The threat and reality of terrorist attacks, as evidenced by the suicide
bombings in Jerusalem, continue in Israel and the Occupied Territories and are
conducted by groups such as Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad that oppose
the peace proposals. Unless some remarkable progress is achieved in the peace
process, the situation is unlikely to change for the better.

29. Ongoing factional rivalry between Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim groups is
characteristic of terrorist incidents in Pakistan, most of which feature
drive-by shootings conducted from the back of motorcycles. The totals, however,
are substantively down from last year. Associated from a regional perspective,
the activities of Osama bin Laden, emanating from Afghanistan, threaten Western
(principally US) individuals and interests throughout the Sub-Continent, the
Middle East, and Africa. He will continue his efforts to strike Western targets
wherever and whenever opportunity permits.

30. Several recent bombing incidents aboard buses and trains in India suggest
an attempt to revive the spectre of Sikh terrorism, while others are related to
the ongoing separatist-inspired strife in Kashmir or that of the Bodo tribes in
Assam.

31. Evidence of Uigher separatist aspirations and unrest surfaced in Western
China, with at least three bomb explosions on buses in Xinjiang and Beijing
which reportedly killed nine people and injured eight others.

32. Overall, extremist unrest in Latin America has lessened markedly. The
majority of incidents are confined to Colombia and Peru. A high risk exists in
Colombia associated with the kidnapping of Westerners, especially businessmen.
In Peru, both the Tupac Amaru and the Shining Path retain their highly dangerous
status, despite extraordinary successes by the security forces such as the
storming of the Japanese Ambassador's residence in Lima to free the hostages
held by the MRTA.

NORTH AMERICAN INTERESTS

33. Like other democratic nations in the developed world, Canada is
inherently vulnerable to acts of terrorism. Incidents associated with conflicts
abroad and transferred to the Canadian environment are termed homeland
issues, and underlie the major concerns about terrorism affecting Canada
today.

34. For a number of reasons, Canada is an attractive venue for terrorists.
Long borders and coastlines offer many points of entry which can facilitate
movement to and from various sites around the world, particularly the United
States. As a wealthy industrial society, Canada is an excellent location in
which to raise money in the name of causes abroad. The nation accepts large
numbers of immigrants and refugees, and consequently has significant émigré
communities which can be a source of haven and support.

35. Many of the world's terrorist groups have a presence in Canada, where
they engage in a variety of activities in support of terrorism, including:

logistical support for offshore terrorism through efforts to obtain
weapons and equipment to be shipped abroad, such as electrical detonators for
explosives, or remote-control devices that can be adapted for use in the
remote detonation of bombs. In one case, a Canadian was involved in an attempt
to purchase a Stinger missile for PIRA;

attempts to establish an operational support base in Canada, to enable
groups to send in hit teams for attacks on targets of opportunity;

fundraising, advocacy, propaganda. For example, not long ago members of
the Kurdish PKK tried to enter Canada illegally to carry out a leadership,
propaganda and fundraising role;

intimidation and manipulation of Canadian citizens in émigré communities
to support activities for homeland issues;

a safe haven for terrorists. The recent case of the Saudi Arabian, Hani
al-Sayegh, implicated in the Al Khobar bombing, provides one example of this
trend;

use of Canada as a base to arrange and direct terrorist activities in
other countries. This is a particular problem with some members of Sikh
terrorist groups whose leaders continue to endeavour to use Canada as their
headquarters; and

raising money through illegal activities. Tamil Tiger supporters have been
accused of raising money through intimidation and the manufacture and sale of
false passports and documentation.

36. Authorities have been reasonably successful in thwarting the growth of
right-wing extremism across the North American continent, but the activities of
some groups continue to pose a substantial threat. The Militia Movement, for
example, while not established in Canada, has endeavoured to expand northward -- a
cache of weapons and equipment belonging to an American group was discovered in
British Columbia.

37. The extreme right -- the racist skinheads and neo-Nazis -- comprises a number
of different factions without a central leadership, which in itself contributes
to their unpredictability. Overall, the security concerns stem not so much from
their numbers as from the few unpredictable ones willing to commit extreme acts
of violence for their cause. Use of the Internet facilitates communication,
coordination and recruiting, and both individuals and groups are beginning to
become aware of the benefits of encrypting their messages.

38. Aligned in somewhat the same fashion, but with a rather more left-wing
approach, are the Single Issue extremists who include environmentalists and
animal-rights groups. Although a small element in Canada, they can be dangerous
and destructive. Among their activities have been:

tree-spiking, equipment damage, and the spraying of noxious substances in
public buildings in attempts to forestall logging operations; and

the mailing of pipe bombs and letters containing razor blades, allegedly
tainted with poisonous substances, to scientists, taxidermists and hunting
outfitters, as well as the extremely costly release of furbearing animals from
commercial premises and threats of poisoned turkeys in supermarkets during
major holidays, all in support of the animal-rights movement.

Close links exist among environmentalists and animal-rights extremists around
the world. The movements use the Internet for communication and publicity, as
well as publishing newsletters and handbooks which contain instructions on how
to conduct civil disobedience, vandalism and sabotage, ("ecotage", as it is
known to environmentalists), some of which is extremely dangerous.

CONCLUSION

39. The foregoing reasons, alone, require that Canada remain alert to, and
cognizant of, the threat of terrorism both from the domestic and the global
perspective. The downward trend in the number of international incidents of
terrorism as noted in recent years has resulted, in part, from the combination
of:

much improved international cooperation to combat terrorism, such as the
sharing of intelligence;

a decrease in the level of state sponsorship;

improved security arrangements in some countries; and,

positive changes within a number of political and economic climates.

However, an optimistic long-term projection should not be entertained -- the
utility and attraction of terrorism as a political and foreign policy tool, as
well other issues such as irrational behaviour on the part of some individuals,
cultural factors, and the desire for revenge could bring about a renewal of
attacks. The influence of the Millennium and Y2K-related events may also
contribute to an increase in the frequency and nature of terrorist attacks,
especially in Western countries with highly sophisticated infrastructures.

40. A significant portion of Canada's response to the threat of terrorism has
been to foster, and to participate in, international cooperative efforts. Canada
has hosted and attended many conferences devoted to the problem of terrorism:
the Halifax G-7, the Ottawa ministerial meeting, the extraordinary Sharm
el-Sheikh Heads of Government meeting, as well as others in Lima, the
Philippines, Tokyo, Paris, and recently, Denver, Colorado. Bilateral and
multilateral cooperation is growing rapidly among our respective security
agencies.

41. International cooperation is one important avenue to be followed in the
battle against terrorism. The dynamic nature of the phenomenon, and the
increasing technical and practical experience of those who embrace the use of
political violence, however, demand a broad and sophisticated response on the
part of counterterrorism forces. The role of intelligence is a major factor in
combatting terrorism and one which is beginning to produce impressive results.
Increased collaboration within the intelligence community is an outcome of
bilateral and multilateral arrangements. A fostering of such mutually beneficial
activities is an effective means of responding to the diverse threats posed by
terrorism.

42. Canada has a history of spillover effects from conflicts based in other
countries -- the "homeland issue" influence. Research indicates that ethnopolitical
violence remains at historically high levels. Although the numbers of
international terrorist incidents were down in 1997/98, they can rise again
without warning in any given year. Incidents of domestic terrorism will remain
at high levels as well. Canadians must remain alert to these indicators,
continuing to encourage efforts to combat terrorism both internationally and
domestically, and taking precautions when working or travelling abroad.

Anti-immigrant violence peaked in Europe in early 90s; Largely US
threat but with recent incidents in the UK

Single Issue

Animal rights; environmentalist; anti- abortion extremists

Sabotage, mail bombs

Significant threat in oil industry

State & State- Sponsored

Oppressive regimes

Sabotage and use of chemical weapons

1Patterns of Global Terrorism, the US State
Department publication, acknowledges that the number of incidents for 1998
represented the lowest annual totals recorded since 1971. On the other hand,
over 700 killed and around 6,000 wounded in 1998 represented a record high
number of casualties in one year.[Return]

2Adequate security to protect against hacker-type
inroads and cyberattacks remains a never-ending battle of technology. A
concerted terrorist assault on computer networks could bring down communications
and power grids in a manner reminiscent of the North American winter ice-storm
of 1998, and could create havoc in the business community. Similarly, the
physical destruction of critical computer networks could seriously cripple key
global commercial infrastructures such as air transport, stock markets and
exchanges, and international banking.[Return]

Perspectives is a publication of the Requirements, Analysis and
Production Branch of CSIS. Comments concerning publications may be made to
the Director General, Requirements, Analysis and Production Branch at the
following address: Box 9732, Stn. "T", Ottawa, Ont., K1G 4G4, or by fax at
(613) 842-1312.