Category: el nino

“Scientists noted that emissions tend to rise more quickly during an El Niño weather pattern. The El Niño phenomenon, which was unusually strong in 2015-16, warms the Pacific Ocean, bringing heavy rains and droughts to different parts of the world. Scientists say the increase in sea surface temperatures that occurs during an El Niño causes less carbon dioxide to be dissolved in the oceans and, as a result, more accumulates in the atmosphere. […]

Stephen A. Montzka, a NOAA research chemist who worked on the index, said the spike between 2015 and 2016 — the largest incremental increase in greenhouse gases since 1988 — was largely caused by El Niño. The jump between 1987 and 1988, which came in at a slightly higher 2.8 percent, was also linked to an El Niño.”

I was quite sure NASA knew exactly what was going to happen. Don’t they model the climate? Don’t they use those models to ask for big grants. Now they are saying that literally anything could happen. Then what use are they?

‘If past events help predict future ones, then we have probably reached the peak of the 2015–2016 El Niño,’ the space agency said.

‘Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean should start to cool off and shift westward.

‘By summer, the tropical Pacific might be back in a neutral state or La Niña cooling could kick in, as it did after major El Niños of the past.

‘But will the ocean respond in 2016 the way it did in 1998 and 1983? Given that the planet is hotter than at any time in the past 135 years, there are no guarantees.’