Perfect Labor Storm 2.0 is a blog that highlights workforce trends, demographic shifts, and human resources changes that will change the way employers do business.

August 08, 2011

A recession, outsourcing, and foreign competition aren't the only reasons we're losing jobs. Dramatic advancements in technology and movements like lean manufacturing and 6 Sigma have more than doubled worker productivity since 1970.

Our manufacturing industry has progressed from making simple household appliances, cars and textiles to producing cutting-edge medical technologies, life-saving medicines and light-speed computer processors with worldwide demand.The result is an economy that has become leaner and meaner in order to become more competitive and efficient. Cutbacks and downsizings have been painful for millions of people. Unfortunately the pain will continue for the foreseeable future, especially for workers in 10 middle class jobs. These middle-class professions may soon face the fate of the milk man, the telegraph operator, the stagecoach driver and the switchboard operator, joining them in obsolete-job heaven.

Machinists: Job vacancies for machinists will shrink by 5% but they will likely still exist, because they require a very specialized skillset to fill the position.

Front-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production and Operators: Without assembly line workers, there are fewer workers to supervise.

Farmers and Ranchers: Farmers and ranchers will see the largest total number of job losses of any profession by 2018.

Computer Operators: Nearly one in five of the computer operators that are around today will move out of the profession in the next seven years.

Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders: Expect one in five of these workers to find another profession in the next few years.

Desktop Publishers: Only 20,400 desktop publishers are expected to remain employed in 2018, a precipitous drop of 23%.

Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers: Expect wages to decline by a whopping 48% in this industry and the number of patternmakers dwindling to a mere 6,000 in the next few years, a decline of 27%.

Wellhead pumpers: Only 13,300 wellhead pumpers will be pumping oil by 2018, a decline of 28%.

Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors and Processing Machine Operators: Nearly one-third of the current Postal Mail Sorters, Processors, and PM Operators in today’s work force will not be working in that profession by 2018, a decline of 30%.

Semiconductors Processors: One in three semiconductor processors will be obsolete by 2018, a decline of 32%, the fastest decline of any position on the list.

If you are unemployeed but looking to get hired in one of these 10 jobs, good luck. You will have lots of competition and opportunities will be less. If you are employed, be careful. Keep your eyes and ears open for future trends and job opportunities. All indicators point to further cutbacks in these positions with several jobs being eliminated altogether.

August 02, 2011

The first thing that comes to mind when you hear unemployment rates like 2.6%, 2.8%, and 3.8% must be memories of the good-old-days - pre-2007 recession. Well think again.

While we continue to hear a lot of depressing stories these days about the loss of jobs and slow job creation, demand for executive and management level talent remains high. According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for chief executives, including chief financial officers, is 2.6 percent, followed by HR managers at 2.8 percent, accountants and auditors at 3.5 percent, and financial analysts at 3.8 percent. In fact, the unemployment rate for adults 25 years and over with a bachelor’s degree and higher remains constant at 4.4%, below the baseline of full employment.

That’s not to say we don’t have a problem. Actually we have a colossal crisis. Other segments of the population are undeniably in trouble. For adults over 25 with less than a high school education, the unemployment rate is 14.3; with only a high school diploma, the rate is 10% with not much light at the end of the tunnel. For teenagers between 16 and 19 years old, the rate nears 25%.

But while net new job growth will undoubtedly remain slow for quite some time, the job creation engine has not stopped – new job creation just gets lost in all the bad news.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) still projects that the U.S. will add 15.3 million new jobs between 2008 and 2018. What’s more, a whopping 15 out of 30 jobs with the most openings and vacancies will pay wages that are above the national median wage for all workers in the United States.

Here's a list of 10 in-demand careers in arm’s length of many unemployed or underemployed workers that will offer plenty of growth and pay well by 2018. That doesn’t mean the jobs will be offered in return for completing a few years of schooling or just completing an application. The bar has been raised: what qualified an individual to fill these positions just a few years might not meet the minimum requirements today. But with a little motivation, a positive attitude, and the right skills, there are employers ready to hire, especially in these areas.

Carpenters

Population growth, the retirement of older carpenters and the demand for new energy-efficient buildings will stimulate a great need for carpenters in the future. But those with the most training and ability to do more than just the simple tasks will have the steadiest workload. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 165,400

Computer Software Engineer, Applications

Computer software engineers will be in high demand as computer networking among businesses continues to grow. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 175,100

Management Analysts

Management Analysts, sometimes called "management consultants" are specialized masterminds who help organizations rearrange corporate structure or improve operations to increase efficiency and profits. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 178,300

Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

As highly skilled and communicatively tactful executive secretaries and administrative assistants are promoted or move on to even more professional jobs, there will be a significant demand for those who can fill their roles. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 204,400

Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks

Because many of the current bookkeepers, accountants and auditing clerks are likely to retire or be promoted to higher levels of financial management, the amount of vacancies in this job in the next few years will be immense. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 212,400

Truck Drivers (Heavy and Tractor-Trailer)

Truck drivers who drive the big rigs will be in high demand to ship everyday products to businesses and keep a stocked inventory. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 232,900

Elementary School Teachers (Non-Special Education)

If you enjoy science, math, or foreign languages and think you have a knack for teaching kids, you are likely to find good opportunities upon your certification. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 244,200

Postsecondary Teachers

Postsecondary education enrollment is expected to grow exponentially. Many of the professors hired in the 1960s and 1970s that taught baby-boomers are expected to retire soon, leaving those with Ph.Ds a great opportunity for employment. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 256,900

Accountants and Auditors

Plenty of accountants and auditors will be needed to fill positions in new businesses, keep up with ever changing financial laws and protecting an organization's shareholders through increased transparency in financial reporting. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 279,400

Registered Nurses

With nearly twice as many projected job vacancies in the next seven years as accountants, registered nurses will be in very high demand as the immense baby boomer population ages and as experienced nurses retire. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 581,500

Because these middle-class jobs will be in such high demand, they will be lucrative and secure for years to come. You may have to go back to school and get a certification once you've decided on a job that you're interested in, but it may be worth it if these projections are correct.

July 19, 2011

More articles about rising salaries and the cost of employee turnover seem to be surfacing again, concurrent with attrition trends pointing upward. While many organizations consider cost of turnover just another cost of doing business that practice has increasingly serious implications for the bottom line. The costs are particularly troubling when the loss involves a top performing employee.

The recent KPMG 2011 U.S. Hospital Nursing Labor Costs Study identifies several trends and benchmarks in relation to hospital nursing labor costs in the United States. Other businesses could learn quite a bit from the results as well, particularly the when it comes to “hidden” labor costs.

Respondents to the survey indicated it is not easy to quantify all labor costs related to full-time direct care registered hospital nurses and mentioned various “hidden” costs. These hidden costs may be significant and are the result of nonproductive labor hours and associated opportunity costs, attrition, and time required to fill a permanent direct care RN position.

On average, 13 percent of hours are believed to be nonproductive hours. This suggests that additional costs can be attributed to nonproductivity e.g., due to training, education, and personal internet use. These costs may be even higher if the nonproductive hours are made up during overtime at an average 1.5x base pay. It is recommended when calculating the “all-in” payroll cost of a registered nurse that 13 percent of payroll costs should be added.

Respondents stated base wages of full-time registered hospital nurses are on average $56 thousand per year (or $26 per hour). Respondents further indicated that base wages on average 57 percent of all-in fully loaded cost ($98 thousand per year or $45 per hour).

The average attrition rate for registered nurses was 14 percent. Respondents stated it takes on average 37 days, or over seven work weeks, to fill a permanent RN position. Taking into the account the 233 hours, or 28 work days, that are on average spent on new hire orientation and training, it appears attrition could have an impact of almost 65 work days, or 13 work weeks, on productivity related to the affected position.

During that time, contingent staff was required to fill the open position or overtime hours were offered to existing staff. In some cases, services may be curtailed for lack of critical support. In addition, managers and human resources are diverting attention to recruitment and replacement rather than retention and engagement of the current workforce.

In addition to base wages, insurance costs, and non-productive time, recruitment costs added another 2 percent to all-in payroll costs.

Quite a few lessons could be learned from this study. The most significant story is the impact of hidden payroll costs on the bottom line. To lower and control payroll costs:

Don’t be penny-wise, pound foolish. Assign a dollar amount to time-to-fill open positions. That extra dollar your experienced employee is demanding may be a drop in the bucket compared to finding his or her replacement.

Track rate of turnover. Find out why employees leave, then do something about it. In addition to higher levels of employee engagement and customer satisfaction, employee retention saves lots of dollars on recruitment costs and lowers hidden payroll costs.

June 02, 2011

Whether we like it or not, Baby Boomers are tapering off in the workforce. It’s leaving a skills and employee gap that needs to be filled. Millennials, also referred to as Generation Y, will help fill in the gap. They will also bring fresh ideas and an enthusiasm and motivation not seen in years.

But recruiting and retaining these young workers won’t be a piece of cake. Many employers argue that young workers lack loyalty and have a poor work ethic. That’s only one part of a bigger story.

But rather than debate the shortcomings of Generation Y or how business and economy have fallen short, let’s take a look at the solutions for the impending recruitment climate change employers face moving forward.

Millennials will take a job because they want to work there, not because they have to. The decision to take a position or not involves many factors. A good job is no longer defined by money alone. A recent Corporate Executive Board study revealed that 80 percent of Millennials will stay with the organization if future career opportunities are available; 70 percent will stay for development opportunities. Only 61 percent selected compensation as the most important factor.

In other words, what young people are looking for is making a difference in the world, or the company. “Millennials are far less likely than Boomers at the same age to agree with statements like “the most important things that happen in my life involve work,” and “life is worth living only when people get absorbed in work.” (Collegiate Employment Research Institute, 2007)

Success will come from differentiating your business from the rest of the competition. “Get them interested early on”, says Neil Howe bestselling author of Millennials in the Workplace. Offering internship possibilities is a great way to catch their attention. That’s a good thing because according to NACE’s 2011 Internship & Co-op Survey, internships are an integral and ever-important part of the college recruiting scene. The survey finds that employers expect to increase internship hiring by about 7 percent this year and co-op positions by nearly 9 percent. Furthermore, they will draw approximately 40 percent of their new college hires for 2011 from their internship and co-op programs.

The Class of 2011 Study released by iloverewards.com states some of the best ideas as they come straight from the horse’s mouth: Millennials spoke out about will interest them in a particular company and how to keep them there:

I’d like to hear more about corporate culture in job descriptions.

I’d like to see companies recruit more via local job fairs at off-campus school locations, along with on-line virtual career fairs.

If a company makes a recruit feel like they would be valued at the company, recruits would be more likely to work for them.

If I were given the choice of picking my own employer, some of the things that I would consider would be how established the company has been over the course of its life, the moral values by which the company is guided and operates under and last but not least the work environment.

It is also well worth noting that 88% of new recruits will seek you out directly if your company branding strategy speaks to the values of Millennials. Seventy-two percent say they will use an on campus career service while more than one third will find their next employer through social media – (7% Facebook, 28% LinkedIn, and 2% Twitter.) Only 28%, down 6% from the year prior, search for a job using newspaper ads.

The survey also revealed what terms young recruits use when searching for a job. they use for seeking a job: 25% Position Title, 23% Entry level jobs, 19% Entry level careers, 15% Industry Title, and 18% Company Name.

It is also recognized that parents are well involved with their up and coming Millennials in searching for an employment opportunity. The Collegiate Employment Research Institute reports that, “Nearly a quarter of all employers have “sometimes” or “very often” seen parents involved in the recruitment and employment of recent college graduates. Forty percent of employers report that parents have called them requesting information about the company; 4 percent report parents actually attending the interview.

Although there is a fine line with this topic, Neil Howe recommends offering a constructive environment, rather than trying to block the parents. “Keep the parents of young hires in the loop with parent newsletters or a parent section of your website. Allow them to engage personally with their children’s work environ¬ment through visiting days or special events.”

When all is said and done, Generation Y isn’t asking for things that are so different from any other generation: they want to be respected and recognized for their workplace contributions. They are however much more vocal about it. And with social media forcing transparency and exposing deep dark secrets, companies need to take heed of the changing workforce climate. Understanding and being sensitive to the needs of Gen Y workers, as well as Gen X and Baby Boomers, will be the key factor in recruiting and retaining them. If you want employees to care about your company, show them that you care about them first.

May 31, 2011

I can’t decide if it’s complacency, lack of urgency, or arrogance. But there seems to be a business-as-usual attitude running rampant among small business owners when it comes to recruiting and retaining employees. As I’ve been forecasting for over a decade, that attitude will eventually cause great harm to the competitiveness and bottom line of formerly great businesses.

A recent report by Deloitte, "Human Capital Trends 2011: Revolution/Evolution" identifies several critical 'game changing' trends that “will sweep through the field at an accelerated pace.”

Three of the trends highlighted in the report articulated with acute clarity the impact that demographics, technology, and globalization will have on even the smallest businesses regardless of the industry or region.

The corporate ladder is folding: Today's workplace isn't what it used to be. (How many times have you heard me say that?) Work will be more virtual, collaborative and project-based. The workforce isn't what it used to be either. Workers' needs, expectations and definitions of success now vary widely, rendering obsolete a one-size-fits-all approach to talent management. The Corporate Lattice is emerging.

Next generation leadership: Meeting emerging business challenges requires new skills and different qualities - and fresh models for finding, developing and engaging the next generation leaders. Given the demands of convergence, globalization, technology and the pace of change, organizations must rethink their approaches to developing next generation leaders.

While the report admittedly speaks to large, global organizations, small businesses can benefit a great deal about hiring and retaining employees by acknowledging and understanding these trends and observing how they approach solving them.

The report identified twelve trends: six revolution and six evolution categories. Five additional trends that I believe will have the greatest impact on small business are listed below. Or you can read the complete report on Human Capital Trends here.

Revolution

Workforce analytics: It’s about time but HR is finally being held accountable for what it does. Moving forward, HR will be asked to justify, not rationalize, important decisions. It will be required to produce more data, more information, and fresh thinking.

Chief Operating Officers for HR: The creation of a chief operating officer (COO) role for HR is an emerging approach given the scale and complexity of HR operations and programs. The HR COO is the leader who focuses on how HR services are delivered, as well as the design, development and implementation of those HR services globally.

Contingent workforce: Companies that understand the issues associated with contractors and manage them well, can benefit from improved operational performance, lower labor costs, smarter staffing decisions and stronger HR alignment with business objectives.

May 23, 2011

Would you hire a candidate if he agreed with the following statements during the interview?

I am usually satisfied with work that is "good enough.”

It is not necessary to do more than enough work to get by.

My anger frightens other people.

Sometime you have to lie a little to protect yourself.

Would it surprise you to find out that many managers do say yes. If so, you wouldn’t be alone. Thousands of managers make that decision every day; ignoring the results of pre-employment tests and allowing their egos and gut instinct to rationalize very clear signs of employee behavior danger.

Pre employment tests enjoy a love-hate relationship with managers. Some managers live and die by the results of a pre employment assessment test in screening out candidates. Others despise the notion that a simple questionnaire might second guess a hiring manager’s gut feeling about how well a candidate might fit into a job. The fact is that both approaches are flawed.

First of all, both parties must consider moderation when using pre-employment tests. The die-hard advocates must put the results of these tests in context. No test should be used as the sole determinant in screening out or selecting a candidate. The best formula for hiring is one-third interview and experience, one –third reference and background checks, and one-third pre employment assessment tests.

Alternatively, ignoring employment tests as part of the employee selection process ignores a powerful ally in the search for the right fit candidate. A validated assessment offers an objective third party view of a candidate, often exposing character flaws as well as unidentified potential.

Then we have situations where the assessment results paint a clear picture of a risky hire and the manager’s opinion is called into question.

For instance, I received a phone call just the other day from a manager questioning the results of candidate’s honesty and integrity report. A candidate revealed during the interview that he had been picked up twice during the last year for driving without a valid license. The candidate explained this away by saying he had a mortgage to pay and a family to support. “I couldn’t afford to lose my job,” he said.

The employer interpreted that commitment to his family as a positive value. He questioned why the pre employment test would raise red flags about this individual’s character when he was such a good father and husband. He rationalized away that driving despite a suspended license was still illegal no matter what the reason. He ignored how this candidate might respond again if he lacked the money to pay his mortgage, to put food on his family’s table, or to purchase medications for his children. Would he resort to stealing from his employer? What lies would he be willing to tell to protect his family? If you think I'm exaggerating, consider what lengths one employee working for a Wisconsin business went "to keep her husband happy." (Hint: she had systematically stolen more than $600,000 from the business over five years.)

While not absolute, the pre-employment test prompts red flags in areas of conscientiousness, hostility, and honesty. The responses on a validated assessment clearly indicate how a potential candidate like the one described above might react if given a choice between family and the law. And yet employers choose to doubt what they read in the candidate’s report despite numerous confirming statements about questionable integrity.

Pre-employment tests can offer valuable insight into a candidate’s integrity, work attitude, and job fit. They are effective and reliable indicators of job fit and future performance. Ignorance is not bliss when hiring employees and pre employment assessment tests can help managers hire smarter.

May 07, 2011

When it comes to hiring, employers and candidates insist that first impressions still matter. But apparently the brain hasn’t gotten the message when the lips are moving and fingers are typing. Quite a few candidates are doing some pretty stupid things these days regarding finding a job.

Let’s start with what is the possibly the very first point of contact between a candidate and a company – the email address. The just released HR Magazine (May 2011) included an interesting article about how a cutesy, clever, or freaky email address might create a bad first impression with the employer. For example, a few of my favorite inappropriate email addresses submitted by candidates applying for jobs at my clients included “sexylady@XXX.com, Joelovessex@XXX.com, hitemhardordie@XXX.com, partygirl1267@XXX.com, moneymotivatesme@XXX.com ... and that’s just scratching the surface. With high unemployment and employers practicing very selective hiring practices, turning an employer off with a provocative email address might not be the best way to get the hiring manager’s attention.

A recent study took this one step further. Researchers rated the email addresses of30,000 job seekers applying for entry-level, non management jobs in the U.S. What they found was a potential link between crazy sounding email addresses and low scores on pre-employment tests.

For example:

Cutesy and inspirational addresses and those with a money them scored slightly lower on pre employments assessment tests.

I’m not suggesting – nor did the article – that employers should use email addresses as a screening tool. But when combined with a pre-employment test assessing a candidate’s honesty, integrity, and work attitudes, the email might trigger greater scrutiny during the interview and subsequent background checks.

The study should prompt candidates to think twice about the email address they attach to the resume they attach to the job application.

Obviously there are some jobs too, especially in healthcare, hospitality and construction, that just can’t be done “long-distance.” But many jobs can be performed completely or to a significant degree from an offsite or remote location.

Most interoffice communications are already handled via phone, email, and text messaging. Meetings, trainings or seminars can be conducted remotely via the internet using meeting software as long as attendees have an internet connection and a phone. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and tablets, attending a web-based meeting has also never been easier. For those companies with deeper pockets and more complex requirements, video conferencing is also an option.

Documents and data can all be stored and accessed “in the cloud” – a workspace accessible via the internet, which allows for project collaboration by co-workers and a centralized repository for frequently accessed information including documents and schedules. Google Apps and Microsoft Sharepoint are just too efficient but inexpensive solutions for small business.

There are also a number of advantages to the employer and the employee.

The employer might avoid leasing a larger workspace to accommodate a growing workforce. Some businesses might even be able downsize. (Success Performance Solutions is a perfect example of how a small business can go virtual.)

Utility and other overhead costs may also be reduced. In addition to eliminating our lease costs, our phone costs were cut by one-third. Electric and heating costs went to zero.

Storing and sending documents and memos in electronic versions only can reduce office supply costs.

If the employer provides paid parking or reimburses for using public transportation, they may be able to cut back on the number of spaces they supply.

Time previously lost in long commutes to and from the office, traffic, or bad weather can be used for work increasing efficiency, or for employees to enjoy a little more balance in their lives.

Going virtual however isn’t without its problems. There are a few logistical items to consider:

Will the employer need to provide equipment to the remote employees or reimburse them for phone, utility, and internet services?

Will the employer provide insurance to cover that equipment since it is not located at the brick-and-mortar office?

Virtual employees don’t excuse an employer from paying taxes. In fact, there is another layer of complexity added if the employee is a resident of a state different from that of the employer. Workers Compensation policies and Business Operating Policies may need to be secured for each state where the employee resides.

Income taxes differ from state to state and reconciling the taxes at the end of the year for more than one state can be a daunting task even for the accounting-minded. Using a knowledgeable accounting or bookkeeping service to handle payroll can save employers a lot of trouble and minimize risk.

Health insurance may also be affected if the employees are residents of another state.

And I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention hiring the right people. Working virtually requires discipline, trust, accountability, ability to work independently, and a strong work ethic. The candidate or current employee must have the right personality to work offsite, unsupervised, and with limited contact to other people.

For some positions, for some employees, and for some companies, the virtual office is a viable solution to hiring the right people with the right skills.

April 20, 2011

Communities hungry for work turn out at McDonald's in force for its National Hiring Day. The chain is looking to hire 50, 000 across the U.S. At this uniquely American institution, they came hoping to claim or reclaim the American dream.

A first job. A new job. A second chance.

Across the midstate Tuesday, hundreds of people poured into their local McDonald's restaurants to fill out applications as part of the chain's National Hiring Day event.

Kamika Banks, 38, and her fiance, Christopher Williams, 32, have been out of work for more than a year.

They heard about the hiring day on the news and spent the day driving to different locations, filling out applications.

"It's been hard for us to get jobs," Banks said. "There's a lot of us out here that need jobs, and that's why I'm here." The hiring blitz comes on the back of a banner year for the Oak Brook, Ill.-based chain.

It's reach again grew, marking eight straight years of growth, according to the company's 2010 annual report. In the U.S. alone, sales increased 38 percent and customer visits were at an all-time high.

The salaries for the positions vary, from at or just above the $7.25 an hour minimum wage for teens seeking their first jobs, to managerial jobs with higher salaries and benefits.

Ira Wolfe, owner of Success Performance Solutions, a pre-employment testing firm with offices in Lancaster and Maryland, said there is a disconnect between jobs being offered and skills proffered by the jobless.

While it might seem odd that a nation of 15 million unemployed or underemployed people needs a nudge to fill any position, it's not that simple, Wolfe said.

There are a lot of jobs available, but the job market we had going into the recession is not the same as it is going out of it. A lot of people who are unemployed don't have skills to work in the service industry." A company like McDonald's, which has a good reputation for employee development and talent retention, is likely not only on the lookout for the fry cooks and counter help of today with this hiring push, Wolfe said. It's also sizing up the next generations of store and even corporate leaders.

At the Kline Village location across from Harrisburg High School, more than 100 people applied in four hours, said Peter Ballantine, owner/operator of Ballantine Restaurants.

The company, which owns stores in Harrisburg, Hershey and Lebanon - including the Kline Village location - was also taking applications online, he said. In all, Ballantine said he needs 50 people. McDonald's is looking to hire a thousand times that many nationwide.

Sisters Mariam and Ifrah Mohamud, ages 17 and 15, and their cousin, 17-year-old Hamdi Farah, all of Harrisburg, are hoping they are among those chosen.

Their families came as refugees from Somalia about five years ago. The restaurant is steps from their school, and with one car to share, they're hoping to get the same shifts, too.

"We want to help our families and get experience for life," Ifrah said.

Kim Feehrer of South Hanover Twp. started as a clerk behind the counter at the Hershey McDonald's when she was 15.

Now 38, she runs that restaurant and supervises another. She spent the better part of Tuesday standing near the soda machine, interviewing candidates and taking notes.

Feehrer said she came to the restaurant because it seemed a better alternative than sweeping up at Hersheypark that long-ago summer.

She stayed because not only did she discover her talent for talking to people and working as a team, she found an employer willing to invest in her success, she said.

"They flew me to Chicago to attend Hamburger U - all expenses paid. To Las Vegas; I'm going to Florida," Feehrer said. "It's more than just burgers and fries. I get to direct input into a multibilliondollar company."