To put that in perspective, the show still won the night with 13.5 million viewers compared to Modern Family's 10.6 million viewers, according to TV By The Numbers. But it's still not a great sign for the show, especially considering Fox shelled out an estimated $54 million on judges and Ryan Seacrest this year with a large chunk of that going to new judges Mariah Carey and Nicki Minaj.

The show has been on a steady decline in rating but getting beat by Modern Family is a new low. Plus the show is no longer churning out major stars. My colleague Zack O'Malley Greenburg recently looked at the top-earning Idol contestants. While Scott McCreery, who won in 2011, ranked 4th with $4 million, the top of the list was dominated by winners from much earlier seasons like Kelly Clarkson ($8 million), Carrie Underwood ($5 million) and Daughtry ($5 million).

Despite the periodic influx of new judges, the show, which debuted in 2002, feels stale compared to competitors like The Voice. Fox really has two choices: Accept that the show is past its prime and be happy with lower (but still huge) ratings or go for a total revamp.

A revamp would risk alienating the slew of fans who have come to love the triumph and heartbreak of Idol.

If I was advising Fox, I'd suggest making small tweaks but cutting back on the expensive talent. Things like the Carey/Minaj fight are only interesting for so long. Find up-and-coming singers who really need the exposure and won't demand eight-figure salaries to appear on the show. It would freshen things up without upsetting the die-hard fans.