The wrong numbers on guns

Following the Aurora, Colo., massacre, many pundits trotted out poll data showing that the American public opposes new gun laws. This finding is disingenuous and if swallowed uncritically, as most of the media has, it can endanger Americans.

The poll question used to shut down any debate about new gun laws is Gallup’s question on the sale of firearms. Gallup asks whether the laws covering firearms sales should be made more strict, less strict or kept as they are now. Only 11 percent of Americans believe laws should be less strict – a number rarely discussed, even when the National Rifle Association lobbies to gut laws across the country.

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Nonetheless, Gallup reports that 44 percent of Americans support “more strict” laws and 43 percent support keeping the laws as they are now. Most focus only on the declining share of Americans wanting laws that are “more strict.”

We respect Gallup and consider it a credible research partner. We believe, however, that the question, used since 1991, is outdated and misleading.

Americans are not discussing “less or more strict” laws — they’re discussing the safety of their communities. They are focused on who can get a gun and how easily. They are discussing the types of guns and the size of the ammunition clips. The debate has transformed so much since 1991 that the Gallup question now misses the point.

More recent poll questions indicate that Americans mistakenly believe gun laws are stronger than they actually are. When asked about specifics, most support common-sense gun limits.

First, on behalf of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, Frank Luntz in May polled gun owners and NRA members – those most passionate about gun rights – and found that 57 percent of NRA members believe that “everyone who wants to buy a gun has to pass a background check.”

This is flat-out wrong, since 40 percent of sales are private – conducted at gun shows or over the Internet – and not subject to a federal background check.