Multilateral negotiation as a counter-terrorism strategy; a case study of AI-Shabaab

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Abstract

The specific objectives of this study were to examine the effectiveness of counterterrorism
strategies in Somalia and to investigate whether multilateral negotiation as
a counter-terrorism strategy would work with AI-Shabaab in Somalia.
The findings show that the existing counter-terrorism strategies have not been
effective against terrorism in Somalia due to the fact that these measures address
symptoms rather than root causes of terrorism in Somalia. Strong international
engagement to bring peace internally and to reconstruct the failed state in Somalia
is required if longer-term counter-terrorism objectives are to be achieved. The failed
externally driven counter-terrorism strategies of the last few years have not only
produced the opposite of the desired results but have also sown the seeds of homegrown
terrorism.
The findings from this study show that negotiation with AI-Shabaab produces mixed
results with the overall leadership and foreign foreigners opposed to negotiations.
The regional leaders and members are amenable to multilateral negotiation. AIShabaab
has the hallmarks of a rational political actor constrained by clan politics and negative public opinion. Ordinary Somalia youth that join AI-Shabaab do not
necessarily share the terrorist ideology of th group. They join the group for
immediate and specific reasons such as a charismatic clan leader, economic
reasons or as an opportunity to further political aspirations.