Labour shortage: Is 'Brexodus' finally starting to bite?

The number of people moving to the UK from EU countries has fallen to its lowest level for four years, according to ONS figures. Is the much vaunted Brexodus starting to bite - or is it just a natural decline?

The ONS data showed net long-term migration to the UK from the EU was 101,000 in 2017. Net migration, for the uninitiated, is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK for at least 12 months and those leaving.

Last year, 240,000 EU nationals arrived in the UK - but a record 139,000 left. The Brexit vote seems to be ground zero for the decline in figures.

Net migration from eight Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 - Poland, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia and Latvia - has fallen from 42,000 in the year before the Referendum to 6,000 in 2017. While net migration from member states like Germany, Italy, Spain and France, has almost halved since the vote, falling from 84,000 to 46,000.

The number of EU citizens coming to the UK "looking for work" decreased by a third (33%) from 55,000 in 2016 to 37,000 in the last year. But those coming to the UK with a job lined up remained stable, the ONS said.

“The data suggest that the UK is still an attractive country, but its allure for EU migrants has declined considerably over the past couple of years,” said Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

“Factors like the lower value of the pound and uncertainty about the implications of Brexit may well have contributed. But it’s not all about Brexit: EU net migration was unusually high just before the referendum, and it’s likely that some of the decline would have happened anyway even if the UK had not voted to leave.”

But even if the dip is only a reversion to the mean, what does it mean for employers seeking capable, willing workers. According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), the abrupt fall in EU nationals entering the UK coincides with a drop in the quantity and suitability of job applicants being reported by employers.

The CIPD’s research showed the number of applicants per vacancy had fallen since last year at all skill levels, and said shortages were forcing many companies to raise wages. The Institute of Directors (IOD) also recently warned of a looming labour pinch.

The institute's chief economist, Tej Parikh noted that “skills gaps” were opening up across the economy. “Individuals from abroad play a crucial role in addressing these shortages, in sectors from agriculture right through to financial services,” said Parikh.

The government has stood firm on ending free movement of workers, but spoke in vague terms of “mobility arrangements” last month in its Brexit white paper. “Given the depth of the relationship and close ties between the peoples of the UK and the EU, the UK will make a sovereign choice in a defined number of areas to seek reciprocal mobility arrangements with the EU.”

The IOD’s Parikh welcomed the aim for a post-Brexit labour mobility scheme but added, “we also need to see the government creating a positive overall migration policy later on this year that enables companies to take advantage of opportunities for growth around the world.”

Tell us about your business. Have you found it more difficult to recruit since the Brexit Referendum?

I watched a clip of this question a little while ago where eastern Europeans were saying the home economy had created opportunities for them at home together with a few other factors, family etc made it as attractive than western Europe and this did not only apply to the UK. To back this up my wife is Polish and we were there in Krakow during March. It is less attractive to migrate - simple economics

Our current national problems cannot be blamed on Brexit, we haven't even left the EU yet and if Theresa May stays in power, we never will as she is a hardcore remainer!

We have far too many immigrants coming here for low skilled jobs and there's a problem with the university life being promoted as a must do - lots of kids spending £1000's on courses, up to their eyeballs in debt and then unable to find a job when they graduate. It's time to start promoting apprenticeships and recruiting our own people and improve the current low educational standards in our state schools.

We don't need open borders to be successful, we just need a population who are willing to work hard to make ends meet.

Many of the Eastern Europeans lived in a subsistence culture before joining the EU and any job oversea's was a massive rise in the family income.

This low wage earning situation has been slowly being replaced by higher home incomes after joining the EU and therefore a reluctance to seek employment oversea's where the difference in wages has reduced over time and new employment opportunities opens up with large companies building new factories there to reduce UK overheads

The long term for many of the lost workers will be in Farming and Hotel type industries. The farmers will have to as far as possible have to invest in new technology for picking and the hotel rates vastly increase to pay a except able rate for the low paid workers to gain staff

When I studied Economics we were taught that seeking money without providing value is "Rent Seeking" and wrong.
When a business hires somebody and refuses to pay them enough to live, that may be "Good business" in some eyes. However, when that workers needs social housing paid for you and I or Benefits to top up his income, that is "Rent Seeking".
Why do morons decide to blame the poor guy who is being taken advantage of when the culprits are: The global business refusing to pay an acceptable wage, the politician refusing to represent British workers rights.
Force every employer to pay a legitimate living wage ( decent secure home, food and little more) then there is no incentive to import cheaper workers.
Using the roads and infrastructure while paying no taxes is also rent seeking, it mean you and I are funding their business.
What part of the average brain is missing to be bale to interpret this as caused by Immigrant?
Why do we pay our taxes and ignore wealthy politicians who themselves don't contribute fairly and employers who hardly contribute at all?
Is this old fashioned stupidity or some form of self-delusion? or maybe it's just easier to pick on a hapless immigrant than to tackle the bad guys?