Future Unclear for U.S. Interests in Asia

Published 7:00 pm, Tuesday, February 25, 2003

Throughout Secretary of State Colin Powell's three-day East Asia swing, the cloud cover was low, limiting visibility. For Powell, the future of U.S. security interests in the region is no less foggy.

With Powell in attendance, an untested president, Roh Moo-hyun, was inaugurated Tuesday in South Korea. He faces a steep learning curve, holding down a big job in a volatile region.

Early next month, the Chinese legislature is expected to choose as the country's next president Hu Jintao, a veteran Communist Party functionary who keeps his views on national and international issues to himself. How he will lead is a matter of guesswork, even for seasoned observers.

The biggest East Asian imponderable for Powell is North Korea, which was the No. 1 agenda item during his tour through Japan, China and South Korea.

In contrast to the new blood rising to leadership positions in China and South Korea, North Korea remains, as it has for more than half century, in the hands of the Kim family dynasty. The mystery lies in whether Chairman Kim Jong Il will add, as is feared, several nuclear weapons to the one or two he is believed to have already. If he does, the consequences will be hard to predict.

Would he use them for blackmail? For export? To deter what he sees as a potential attack from the United States? Would he test one? And what would Pyongyang's neighbors do? The concern is that others in the region, particularly Japan, could go the nuclear route as well.

A pre-emptive strike by the United States apparently is not in the cards because the North has deployed near the demilitarized zone massive amounts of artillery and rockets, and Seoul, one of the world's largest population centers, is within easy striking distance.

Many South Koreans worry that Washington may respond in a provocative way toward the North, triggering yet another devastating Korean War. During his 24-hour visit to Seoul, Powell did his best to dispel those fears.

The Bush administration has been groping for ways to encourage Pyongyang to curb its nuclear ambitions. Powell is mindful that a 1994 U.S.-North Korean agreement on denuclearization collapsed last year as a result of Pyongyang's violations. He wants to return to the bargaining table, this time as part of a broad international negotiating effort.

Japan favors this approach. So does Roh, South Korea's new president, according to Powell.

China, however, is siding with North Korea's call for one-on-one talks with the United States leading to a nonaggression pact. Powell says the United States got burned in the last bilateral negotiation; he is not about to repeat the mistake.

"We simply will not, because North Korea demands something, yield to that something," Powell told reporters Tuesday on the flight back to Washington. "It is their actions that have caused this problem and they cannot be the 'demander' as to the manner in which it's going to be resolved."

Powell said he recognizes that there could be danger if the bickering over the modalities of a negotiation drags on, giving North Korea more time to pursue its weapons programs. "We won't allow time to be used as a weapon against us," he said.

He added that the United States is watching to see if North Korea starts its reprocessing facility at Yongbyon and takes other steps that clearly indicate it is on the path to building more nuclear weapons. Right now, the North's intentions are unclear.

Powell is hoping Kim will agree to walk away from his nuclear program in exchange for the promise of economic benefits from outside donors that would afford his beleaguered countrymen the decent life that has been denied them. Japan, as one example, is ready to chip in $10 billion, Powell noted.

Would Kim be willing to cut such a deal? Only he knows.

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EDITOR'S NOTE _ George Gedda has covered foreign affairs for The Associated Press since 1968.