Posted by gbakker on 3/20/2013 8:28:00 PM (view original):Here's what I see as the fault in your logic, pinotfan: I already know that one child is a girl, but that doesn't matter, it could be a boy. All I know about the other child is that it is either a girl or a boy, a population of two, either g or b. odds are 50-50 either way. If the child is a girl , the possible combinations are not gb,bg, gg, they are gb, gg.

It's 50-50 only if you're trying to predict a future event. That is not the case here as you are looking at results.

If you play craps, perhaps this will help. When you roll two dice, there are eleven different possible numbers you can roll, anywhere from two to twelve. However, there are 36 different outcomes:
Die 1 Die 2
1 1
1 2
1 3
1 4
1 5
1 6
2 1
2 2
2 3
2 4 etc.

So let's say I tell you I rolled a four. There are three ways to do that: 1-3, 3-1, and 2-2 - two possible combinations, but three ways to roll them. So, the odds of the combination being a one and a three, regardless of order, are 2-1. However, if I tell you one of the die rolled was a one, there is a 100% chance that the other number is a three. Knowing part of the existing data set has a direct impact, just as knowing the sex of one of the children.

So the RL stats have been pretty good at predicting their performance so far.

I put Wolf in at 2B, a secondary position for him, to replace Hub Collins who after 135 PA was hitting .225 with a .296 OBP. So this permitted me to put them both in the lineup.

The team overall is 57-57 .500 3 games behind the division leader. The Browns as a team are hitting .272 with an OBP of .327 but that means third from the bottom of MLB relative to other teams, which is disappointing. The pitching is around the ML average.

Posted by gbakker on 3/20/2013 8:28:00 PM (view original):Here's what I see as the fault in your logic, pinotfan: I already know that one child is a girl, but that doesn't matter, it could be a boy. All I know about the other child is that it is either a girl or a boy, a population of two, either g or b. odds are 50-50 either way. If the child is a girl , the possible combinations are not gb,bg, gg, they are gb, gg.

It's 50-50 only if you're trying to predict a future event. That is not the case here as you are looking at results.

If you play craps, perhaps this will help. When you roll two dice, there are eleven different possible numbers you can roll, anywhere from two to twelve. However, there are 36 different outcomes:
Die 1 Die 2
1 1
1 2
1 3
1 4
1 5
1 6
2 1
2 2
2 3
2 4 etc.

So let's say I tell you I rolled a four. There are three ways to do that: 1-3, 3-1, and 2-2 - two possible combinations, but three ways to roll them. So, the odds of the combination being a one and a three, regardless of order, are 2-1. However, if I tell you one of the die rolled was a one, there is a 100% chance that the other number is a three. Knowing part of the existing data set has a direct impact, just as knowing the sex of one of the children.

The league is a dual season 1889/1919 - so while one half is on the verge of leaving the deadball era, the other half is firmly in it (even in that weird 500 IP and more phase.

I have Wally Pipp at first. I would be willing to replace him at 1B if ...well you know. But I don't want to replace him with either of the OFs.

I was leaning toward the .290 hitter, but your collective wisdom have me reconsidering. A good OBP guy at the top of the order would be nice before Baby Doll Jacobson, Bug Holliday, Pipp and King Kelly. For a deadball era team it has a sluggers lineup.

The SLG difference is notable, not overwhelming: Chicken Wolf (mr. .290) is at .377, Jack Graney at .323.

I will take a quick look at walks/100 around the league. I can, of course, always decide that whichever one I go with is underperforming and switch.

Technically I could also platoon them, though I am not sure that does much in this case.

Thanks everyone.

You'd be willing to replace Wally Pipp....if you had Lou Gehrig?

A 54-point slugging percentage isn't a big difference, considering they have a 56-point batting average differential. Essentially one guy hits more singles, the other guy draws more walks...I'd be inclined to play Mr. .380.

No teaparty, Graney is left handed and Wolf RH which is why I started out platooning them to see how they each performed. But when my 2B Hub Collins underperformed by a lot, I put Wolf in at 2B which is a secondary position for him and have been playing them both, with the results that I posted just above so far.

The team is at 60-58 so far, 2 games behind the div. leader. Bug Holliday hit two HRs in last night's a.m. game.

Here is how they ended up - 76-86, ten games under .500 in third place. Graney's OBP at .384 was 128 points above his batting average. Wolf hit .283. And in the growing tradition of me having weirdo teams - see the thread on my 73-90 team that made it to the World Series and is now in a TOC (against brianjw, so we won't last long), this team had three 20 game winners despite a team losing record - and three 20 game losers !