Study Finds Room For More Houses

Analysis Attempts To Predict Town's Growth Potential

A new analysis of townwide undeveloped land finds that there is room for at least 1,500 additional houses.

That number does not include 80 homes under construction, plus another 224 scheduled in later phases of the Buckingham and Bridgewater subdivisions.

The analysis attempts to predict when Avon would be ``built out,'' when its population would peak and demand for services would be highest.

Based on the average in Avon of 2.5 people per household, the town could reach 21,000 residents in 15 to 20 years -- compared to today's population of about 16,500 -- if all the available land eventually is built upon.

Town Planner Steve Kushner said the Huckleberry Hill area has the greatest growth potential based on the amount of residentially zoned land that is still available there.

``It's the area where we've seen the greatest amount of growth in the last 10 years and where the potential exists for more,'' Kushner said.

A consultant completed the ``build-out'' study recently using GIS (geographic information systems) technology, in which computer programs can examine the development potential of open lots by considering their zoning, topography, wetlands and other features.

``It's still not a flawless result, but it's better data than we've ever had in the past,'' Kushner said.

The study was presented recently to the town planning and zoning commission, which is updating Avon's comprehensive plan of development.

The analysis assumes that the average family size in Avon will not change significantly, that no new condominium/apartment complexes will be built, and that the town does not purchase and preserve any of the open space.

The analysis found that:

There are 81 open parcels throughout town, each exceeding 5 acres, which could yield a combined total of more than 1,000 new homes if subdivided.

About 300 of those potential homes may never be built, however, because some of the land is owned by Avon Old Farms School. The school has not indicated any desire to sell that land.

About 800 additional homes could be built on other parcels, some of which are scattered around town and some of which were approved but never built as part of older subdivision projects.

The board of education plans to use the build-out analysis to help predict Avon's long-term school enrollment picture. Almost 3,300 students attend Avon schools.

The school board provided town officials with the age and address of each student, which allowed the consultant to create maps that show the density of certain age groups.

For instance, one of the preliminary findings showed that new houses tended to translate into older children entering Avon schools, as established families moved into second and larger homes.

``We're going to definitely do some analyses to see if there's a correlation between the size of house, age of house and age of kids when the people move in,'' school board member Peggy Roell said. ``Anything that can help us with our long-term planning is going to be very welcome.''