Daily Financial Value Of Magic 2015 (6/23)

Hello everyone, and welcome to the start of a new spoiler season! Spoilers for the Magic 2015 Core Set are coming fast and furious right from the start! There are a lot of cards to cover today, but first I want to talk a bunch about this year's core set.

This set is going to be a very strong Core set, probably the best since M11 (the first set where Titans debuted).

In addition, I'm trying to be very aggressive in pricing the cards in this set so that there is very little drop-off between the presale period and right afterwards. It's a feel-bad for people when we put a card for presale at $5 and it drops to $2 the week after release. For M15, I'm starting low and raising based on demand, versus starting medium/high. I bring this up because there will be a lot fewer cards that have a dropping value past the initial release, compared to previous releases.

How I review:

Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.

The drawback (not being able to play lands) on this card is pretty harsh, but essentially drawing seven cards in two turns (Play Aggressive Mining, sacrifice a land - 2 cards total. On your opponent's turn, sacrifice a land - 4 cards total. On your next turn, sacrifice a land - 6 cards total, draw your normal card for the turn - 7 cards total) is an amount of drawing power that shouldn't be ignored without proper testing. I think that, in the end, the cost (both in mana and lands) is too much for this card to be playable, but I also think that drawing six extra cards over the course of one full turn for four mana is a huge amount of card drawing.

Designed for Commander play. Totally casual, and not particularly powerful.

Chasm Skulker

Starting Price: $2

Current Price: $2

Future Price (Short Term): $2.50

Future Price (Medium Term): $2

Future Price (Long Term): $2

Aggressively costed, though ultimately fragile as a 1/1 for three mana. In older formats (Legacy anyone?), this turns into an absolute beast backed by a Brainstorm. Great anti-wrath tech for blue, a color that does not typically get anti-wrath tech. I think that Chasm Skulker is pushed hard enough to see Standard play, and possibly Modern and Legacy play (though fringe play in Legacy – see Wake Thrasher).

At one mana, this is an attractive option if there's an aggressive black deck in Standard. However, the second ability (removing counters to deal damage) isn't as attractive (three mana is a lot), which will limit its potential for Standard play.

The first reprint on this list. As a common (and as a Duel Deck reprint), Darksteel Citadel hit $3. There's going to be a fresh supply of M15 cards out there, which will suppress the value of Darksteel Citadel in the short term. However, there is usually a lot less Core set opened than any individual expansion set (see: all of Theros block), so prices on good reprints rebound quickly on M-set cards. Add to the fact that this is now an Uncommon, and we have our first $1-$2 Uncommon of M15!

Hydras are popular, and this is pushing the edge of playability in ramp decks. Unfortunately, A) it can't get lands, and B) There are already better ramp creatures spoiled in M15 that aren't Genesis Hydra. Should see some play, but will not be a staple like Mistcutter Hydra.

This is a total skill-testing card. This is also the type of card that is initially ignored because the ability looks like a casual one, but in reality it's the exact type of card that really caters to skilled players in a competitive setting. If you are good at bluffing or playing mind games with your opponent, Master of Predicaments will be a Tier One or Tier Two finisher for you. The problem is that not everybody is good at bluffing, so your skill (or lack thereof) will greatly increase or decrease the playability of Master of Predicaments. This is one of the rare cards that will be a lot more powerful in the hands of Pro Tour players than in the hands of FNM players.

Awesome flavor, a popular returning character, and a great card to hose players in Commander play. Six for a 4/4 flying trampler is not exactly where Constructed wants to be, but it still can get bigger once you kill opposing creatures. In short, I think Ob Nixilis v 2.0 will trade in on name, flavor, and casual appeal. I expect the foils to trade for a premium.

Hey look, convoke is back! There have been eighteen convoke cards in Magic's history (prior to M15) and exactly one has been a success – Chord of Calling. The problem with Convoke (and it's the same problem it had back in Ravnica Block) is that you need creatures to get the best mana cost, which lends to board over-commitment and thus vulnerability to Wrath effects.

When the Convoke effect is one that's tied to an effect that counters getting hosed by a Wrath effect, then the card starts looking a lot more attractive. The problem here is that let's say you've lost all your creatures to a Wrath. In order to bring back one creature, you're looking at a three-mana investment. I suppose that as a one- or two-of for the late game, getting 3+ creatures back at once is worth looking at, but that's a very situational use for a card.

I'm a huge fan of the earlier Ultima games (the first RPG I really got into was Ultima IV for my Commodore 64. Yes, I'm dating myself here). I love that this card really ties into Richard Garriott's (aka Lord British's) vision of his own game.

I also think that Shield of the Avatar has a low enough mana and equip cost that it could see some fringe play. I think that fringe play will be in Commander, though, because with one creature in play, you're getting a (slightly different) equivalent to paying three mana to give a creature +0/+1. Yes, I understand that there's times when this will be better (being blocked by multiple creatures/surviving small pings like Pestilence), and there's times this will be worse (toughness-reducing effects). But for all intents and purposes – it doesn't do enough, even though the cost is pushed pretty hard.

This is not only a good card, but one that can be played in any deck that wants to run a huge monster with all upsides. Being able to activate from the graveyard is a very relevant effect, in case either Soul of New Phyrexia is dealt with or you pitch it for some reason and just want to use the effect. The playable titans hit $30-$40 in Standard when they were at the height of their popularity/playability (see: Primeval Titan in 2012). That's the ceiling for Soul of New Phyrexia, and I could very well see it hitting that point sometime over the next six months.

There were two Souls that were spoiled as the Duels of the Planeswalker promos for the 2015 DOTP – Soul of Ravnica and Soul of Zendikar. This will seriously affect their value. Mythic rares are the rarest non-foil cards from each set release, so putting tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of additional copies into circulation will decimate the value of these cards.

It doesn't help that Soul of Ravnica is (so far) the weakest of this cycle of creatures. I have high hopes for the other Souls in this cycle, but not Ravnica.

Soul of Shandalar

Starting Price: $10

Current Price: $10

Future Price (Short Term): $15

Future Price (Medium Term): $15

Future Price (Long Term): $10

A great ramp creature, and one that can just absolutely dominate the board once it gets into play. The turn it comes down, it can take down practically any other creature (6/6 first strikers tend to do that). Untap with it and you're Bolting a creature a turn (or multiple creatures, if you're ramp and you hit ten mana). This is the type of finisher that Ramp wants, and it should see a lot of Standard and Commander play.

This type of effect usually settles in the $1.50-$2.50 range. (Launch the Fleet, Militia's Pride, etc). Spirit Bonds is better than most of the other ones (having a secondary effect for the tokens is huge!), but suffers from needing board overcomitment and the fact that it generally doesn't do anything on its own.

This card was spoiled a long time ago (since it was the You Make the Card winner), so people have had a long time to think about the uses for Waste Not. I tend to think that this card is objectively really powerful (pushed on mana cost, and works well with cards that are already getting played, like Thoughtseize, Cabal Therapy, Pox, etc). The Mono-Black discard deck in Modern will love this. This reminds me of another You Make the Card – Crucible of Worlds. It's not powerful in every deck, but it will dominate the game in the decks that are designed around the theme (discard).

See Hibernation's End (just short of playable) or Birthing Pod. This effect is really powerful, and at instant speed is pushed harder than usual. Worth taking a look at in Standard, but we need more information about the early drops in the set in order to see if this will have an effect on the metagame.

Wow, that's a lot of cards. I'll see you tomorrow with more M15 spoilers to discuss, along with the breakdown of booster pack value for Magic 2015!

About Ben Bleiweiss

Ben has been involved for over 20 years with Magic, including two tenures as a weekly columnist for WotC, eight Pro Tour appearances, providing coverage for the Pro Tour, and being a financial expert on Magic values. Ben started as an employee at SCG in 2003 as a card buyer and is now the General Manager.