The points total needed to keep NUFC up based on the last 10 seasons – can we do it?

It’s amazing how ten minutes or one goal can totally change your outlook as a football fan.

After beating Manchester United and then 2-0 up at Bournemouth with ten minutes to play, I had no doubt were heading to safety. Our late collapse to only take a point isn’t the first time this season we have thrown away leads late in the game; let’s hope we don’t rue them come May.

The draw leaves us on 29 points with ten games to play and just two points from the relegation zone. With that in mind, here’s a look into what’s been required to stay up over recent seasons.

What history says

We all know the magic 40 point rule but often you don’t need that to stay up. If we analyse what was needed to stay up over the last ten years you can, on average, say that 37/38 points would do it. We do have the advantage of a better goal difference against most of the teams down there with us at the moment – and that could prove crucial.

Season

17th placed team

Points to stay up

2016/7

Watford

40

2015/6

Sunderland

39

2014/5

Aston Villa

38

2013/4

West Brom

36

2012/3

Sunderland

39

2011/2

QPR

37

2010/1

Wolves

40

2009/0

West Ham

35

2008/9

Hull

35

2007/8

Fulham

36

AVERAGE

–

37.5

What you say

The Chronicle have a handy Premier League predictor tool where you can predict our remaining games and those of our rivals so can predict the final table come May. Where do you think we will finish? Use the link below to find out for yourself…

What we say

It is always incredibly difficult to predict Newcastle, we all know that. I had a go at looking at our remaining games and have us to pick up 10 points, putting us on 39 in total with a good goal difference. I would hope this would see us over the line and in the table below I have tried to predict our games.

Knowing Newcastle though, we may pick up points at home to the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea but lose to West Brom; but 10 points from those games would stack up to us accruing a point game, which is what we have done all season.

Home/Away

Team

Points

A

Liverpool

0

H

Southampton

1

A

Tottenham

0

H

Huddersfield

3

A

Leicester

1

H

Arsenal

0

A

Everton

1

H

West Brom

3

A

Watford

1

H

Chelsea

0

–

–

10

How are you feeling for the run in? Where do you think we will finish?

(Fancy writing for us? Send any articles/ideas over to us at [email protected] & we’ll get back to you!)

About Simon Riddlesden

Lifelong Newcastle United fan and East Stand season ticket holder. Observations from a supporter who has followed NUFC during Champions League participation and through relegation, taking me from Milan to Scunthorpe.

22 thoughts on “The points total needed to keep NUFC up based on the last 10 seasons – can we do it?”

You went the long way around to arrive at the prediction of about a point a game which is what we have so far 🙂 Glad you showed that usually a team doesn’t always need 40 points to stay up because I am not sure we will get there.

You gave us zero points against Arse and Chelsea but we may buck history there. Of course you are right in predicting we will not get maximum points from Huddersfield, Southampton and West Brom.

It’s coming down to Injurys now and there not looking to good at the moment we are down to the bones Ime hoping Rafa can pull a rabbit out of the hat,but no goal scorer midfield looking sick looking dim at the moment imo

Your stats are incorrect. 2016/17 Watford didn’t need 40 points to stay up. They were 17th, and got 40 points, with goal difference -28. However, 18th and relegated was Hull with only 34 points and a -43 goal difference. So, in fact 34 points with a better GD might have stayed up, 35 points to be certain. Though of course, not if some of those 5 extra points came in 6-pointers against Hull.

2010-11 Huĺl were 17th with 40 points, GD -20. Birmingham and Blackpool were relegated on 39 points, with very similar GDs. So that time 40 points was genuinely required.

2014-15 we went down in 18th with 37 points GD -21. Sunderland had 39 points GD -14. They could have probably stayed up with 37 points. That probably would have taken the decision to the last game of the season, but with the pressure all on us, I doubt we would have hammered Spurs. Our poor GD was always a big factor in the run in.

If you have repeated the same mistake as assuming that the points total for 17th was always required for other seasons (not checked) then the average to stay up would be lower. Probably it is 35-36 points.

We needed the win at the weekend, however as we didn’t I agree with your 38 pts tally.
We need a win against Saints to start with. They are struggling and down there with us. It’s a home fixture and a very winnable game.

Thereafter we have to be looking at Huddersfield, WBA and Watford.
But our record against relegation rivals isn’t great this season, so 3 unexpected points against one of the others would certainly ease the worry.

potski:
Your stats are incorrect.2016/17 Watford didn’t need 40 points to stay up.They were 17th, and got 40 points, with goal difference -28. However, 18th and relegated was Hull with only 34 points and a -43 goal difference.So, in fact 34 points with a better GD might have stayed up, 35 points to be certain.Though of course, not if some of those 5 extra points came in 6-pointers against Hull.

2010-11 Huĺl were 17th with 40 points, GD -20.Birmingham and Blackpool were relegated on 39 points, with very similar GDs.So that time 40 points was genuinely required.

2014-15 we went down in 18th with 37 points GD -21.Sunderland had 39 points GD -14.They could have probably stayed up with 37 points.That probably would have taken the decision to the last game of the season, but with the pressure all on us, I doubt we would have hammered Spurs.Our poor GD was always a big factor in the run in.

If you have repeated the same mistake as assuming that the points total for 17th was always required for other seasons (not checked) then the average to stay up would be lower.Probably it is 35-36 points.

I was going to bring up that point about what you would have needed to stay up and what 17th and 18th actually got and am glad you did.

I have said on here a few times that this mythical and mystical 40 point number doesn’t actually come into the reckoning most years.

potski:
Your stats are incorrect.2016/17 Watford didn’t need 40 points to stay up.They were 17th, and got 40 points, with goal difference -28. However, 18th and relegated was Hull with only 34 points and a -43 goal difference.So, in fact 34 points with a better GD might have stayed up, 35 points to be certain.Though of course, not if some of those 5 extra points came in 6-pointers against Hull.

2010-11 Huĺl were 17th with 40 points, GD -20.Birmingham and Blackpool were relegated on 39 points, with very similar GDs.So that time 40 points was genuinely required.

2014-15 we went down in 18th with 37 points GD -21.Sunderland had 39 points GD -14.They could have probably stayed up with 37 points.That probably would have taken the decision to the last game of the season, but with the pressure all on us, I doubt we would have hammered Spurs.Our poor GD was always a big factor in the run in.

If you have repeated the same mistake as assuming that the points total for
17th was always required for other seasons (not checked) then the average to stay up would be lower.Probably it is 35-36 points.

Also, you have to be careful about averages. Today in Chicago it is 50 degrees. Given the vagaries of the weather here it could be minus 50 degrees tomorrow. Average temperature zero, but I would probably freeze to death if I was out for more than a couple of hours tomorrow.

So, if we get 35-36 points there is still a good chance we could be relegated because teams like Hull on 34 skew the numbers.

Warren Barton just made a great point about VAR and this Spurs game. He said that VAR reversals are for “clear and obvious” mistakes. If it is taking 4 minutes to review a call, then it is not “clear and obvious”, sort of by definition!