The good, the bad and the complicated in the Cubs’ minors early this season

Par Rob Huff14 mai 20183

Despite the​​ high rate of prospect turnover, Cubs fans can take solace in appreciating that the front office has identified and the minor league instructors have developed a bunch of major league talent. Eloy Jiménez is knocking on the door. Jeimer Candelario has starred in Detroit. Isaac Paredes has morphed into a premium prospect. And while Pedro Araujo is serving up gopher balls for the Orioles — it seems that two innings above High-A didn’t adequately prepare him to evade major league power — he’s also striking out over 11 batters per nine through 13 major league appearances.

So even if you don’t recognize the names below as premium talents, there’s a pretty good chance that the Cubs’ player development system is going to turn a few of these prospects into real players. Below is a look at the Cubs’ minor leagues through the first quarter of the season (May 10).

The good

While David Bote or even Jeffrey Baez earned their fair share of recognition, one player stood above the rest — Kutztown University product and 19th-round draft pick (2016) Matt Swarmer. The 6-foot-5 righty is already 24 and just at High-A with a clunky delivery where his leg kick reaches near his shoulder height and an arsenal that fails to stand out (low-90s straight fastball, low-80s curve and a new low-80s changeup). But after keeping his walk rate below two per nine last year and his strikeout rate north of nine per nine, his first 27 1/3 innings at High-A have featured elite per nine rates: 10.87 strikeouts, 0.99 walks, and no homers, yielding a 1.32 ERA supported fully by a 1.49 FIP.

Some other impressive early-season performances from the farm:

Aforementioned outfielder Jeffrey Baez consistently produced with the bat in the lower levels of the minors from 2011-2015, showing above-average power and solid on-base skills, but that production vanished in 2016-17 as he combined below-average offense with below-average defense. But so far, Baez has clicked at Double-A. Despite an elevated 28.3 percent strikeout rate, Baez has smashed his way to a .337/.408/.593 line, complete with four homers and a truly impressive nine stolen bases.

Third baseman David Bote made his way to Chicago already on the heels of a scorching start at Iowa, where his 89 plate appearances produced a .333/.393/.605 line with strong outcomes when he didn’t put the ball in play (9 percent walk rate, 18 percent strikeout rate) and more over-the-fence power than he has previously shown (five homers). His emergence continues to be one of the great storylines on the farm, fueled further by the appearance that he belongs during his brief stints in Chicago.

Triple-A outfielder Mark Zagunis continues to own each plate appearance, as evidenced by his .298/.412/.436 line over 115 plate appearances, including a ludicrous 14.8 percent walk rate against a 15.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s done developing offensively in the minors.

After floundering at Double-A for nearly 200 innings as a result of numerous walks, former second-rounder Duane Underwood has reemerged at Triple-A, earning a 3.10 FIP over 27 2/3 innings thanks to 8.78 strikeouts per nine against just 1.30 walks. If Underwood has really turned a corner with regard to his free passes, he’s going to find his way to the majors soon.

To be noticed as a Double-A reliever, something really needs to stand out. For Craig Brooks, 22 strikeouts in 15 innings has done the trick.

A trio of recent high, but not elite, starting pitching draft picks have ridden high-strikeout/low-walk starts to success thus far. Tyson Miller (fourth round, 2016) has succeeded at High-A over 32 innings with 9.28 strikeouts per nine and 2.53 walks, and in spite of a hilariously low 23.5 percent ground ball rate, Miller’s 3.38 ERA looks good. Tyler Thomas (seventh round, 2017) has a similar profile at South Bend — 9.00 strikeouts per nine and 1.93 walks over 28 innings — to yield a 3.39 FIP. And the arm with the strongest profile, Cory Abbott (67th overall in 2017) has the lowest walk rate of the trio, walking just 1.78 per nine over 25 1/3 innings while striking out 9.24 per nine to fuel his 3.20 ERA despite some trouble with the long ball.

Top prospect, right-hander Jose Albertos, has not only struggled at South Bend, but has barely been able to record any outs, retiring just 26 batters over four starts and two relief appearances. His strong strikeout rate, 10.38 strikeouts per nine, masks a complete inability to throw strikes: Albertos has a whopping 20.77 per nine walk rate. His matching 20.77 ERA makes plenty of sense in that context. Albertos still has the arsenal of a major league starter, but he looks much further from that future now than he did a year or two ago.

Albertos wasn’t the only prospect with name recognition to struggle in the opening month-plus:

After his bat disappeared in 2017, the Cubs had to hope that a return to Triple-A for Chesny Young would reignite his hit tool. Thus far, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Young’s dreadful .221/.269/.267 start includes a confounding 31.9 percent strikeout rate after posting a 14.7 percent rate in a full season at Triple-A last year.

Also returning to Triple-A after a cup of coffee with the Mariners last year, outfielder Jacob Hannemann is sitting at .200/.273/.250 over 89 plate appearances. He still has five steals, but hitting .200 with no power won’t work.

Righty Jen-Ho Tseng got another spot start for the Cubs in which he allowed three runs while recording six outs before heading back to Triple-A. When he got back, he had an 8.04 ERA waiting for him, and 3.73 walks and 1.72 homers per nine won’t work for Tseng as it directly contradicts his recipe for success at the lower levels of the minors. He’s still just 23, but he needs a strong stretch to get back on track.

The young left side of the infield at High-A Myrtle Beach has struggled in similar ways. Shortstop Aramis Ademan‘s strikeout rate has soared over 10 points from last year up to 27.4 percent. Unsurprisingly, his .228/.314/.315 batting line has underwhelmed. Joining him is third baseman Wladimir Galindo, who’s seen his strikeout rate climb 11 points to 33.7 percent, along with a poor .221/.284/.337 line for the bat-first corner infielder. Both players need to find more contact going forward, though both are young enough to have time to adjust.

Last year’s first-round pick lefty Brendon Little has seen his professional career continue its rocky start — over 18 innings at South Bend, Little has issued 10 walks and allowed three homers, resulting in an unsightly 6.50 ERA. He could be more of a project than previously anticipated.

The complicated

While every player is an incomplete project, this group features players who have really stood out without fitting snugly into one of the groups above.

There’s no better place to start than with 2016 10th-round pick, right-handed reliever Dakota Mekkes. In 13 1/3 innings, Mekkes has allowed just two hits, struck out 17, and hasn’t surrendered a homer. But his eight walks are a concern. Nobody can hit Mekkes, but he has to be able to cut down his walks to continue progressing.

After just 32 2/3 innings at Double-A last year, the club aggressively promoted top prospect Adbert Alzolay to Triple-A. Thus far, Alzolay’s performance has been solid (3.94 FIP, 2.91 walks per nine) but unspectacular (just 7.06 strikeouts per nine). Plenty of eyes will be on Alzolay throughout the year, especially if there’s an opening in the Chicago rotation.

After disappearing from the prospect radar a few years ago, reliever Dillon Maples zoomed back to relevance in 2017 on the strength of a ton of strikeouts despite more walks. For his encore, Maples’ 10 1/3 innings have featured an astonishing number of strikeouts (20) and walks (10).

Infielder Zack Short posted an excellent .427 on-base percentage in his first half-season of professional baseball in 2016, but he garnered more attention last season when he kicked up his isolated power from .082 to .169 despite climbing two levels. In 2018, Short has further pushed his ISO to .233. However, his 18 percent strikeout rate from 2016 has ballooned to 30.2 percent this year. Short keeps drawing walks at an elite clip (16.7 percent), but the strikeouts are preventing him from making a huge leap.

After a rough 2017, righty Trevor Clifton is repeating Double-A with very similar strikeout (7.39 per nine) and walk (4.55 per nine) rates as last year. But he has surrendered just 19 hits in 31 2/3 innings, so it’s working for now. Clifton needs to cut the walks and pick up more strikeouts to really move.

South Bend catcher Miguel Amaya — the recipient of a $1.25 million bonus in 2015 — is showing game power in full-season ball as a 19-year-old. His four homers and .214 ISO over 108 plate appearances stand out, especially considering that his first 486 career plate appearances yielded just four homers. His .296 on-base percentage needs to climb, but baby steps are OK with teenagers in the Midwest League.

Despite having missed time each year due to injury, outfielder D.J. Wilson took the step to High-A this year. Wilson’s 20.8 percent walk rate and .404 on-base percentage help balance out his 30.2 percent strikeout rate, .244 batting average and .317 slugging percentage. Wilson hasn’t found a way to harness his solid raw power or plus-plus speed with enough in-game consistency to be considered a plus prospect, but he does continue to show in-game skills, when he’s healthy.