Here is how I rank the Top 20 head coaches in the NFL headed into 2013

Gary Kubiak, right, has the potential to be one of the league’s top five coaches. (Karen Warren/Chronicle)

After watching the unveiling of NFL.com’s Top 100 list, I started thinking about which picks I agree with and which ones I thought were way off. The problem you run into when trying to put together a list like that is that a comparison of offensive tackles to quarterbacks is apples to oranges. Another area that I struggled with when thinking about how I would rate the top players in the NFL was how much to weigh a player’s age. Do I ignore what the player did last year just because he’s in his 30s? Do I ignore a player’s age and expect him to continue to play at the same level when age almost always wins in the end?

Forget all that nonsense. Instead, I’ll take a shot at rating the top 20 coaches in the league. How did I come up with my rankings? That isn’t easy to explain. This may sound strange, but my criteria for how I rated coaches had to be fluid since there are many unique filters to look through. While past performance was definitely heavily-weighted, I was still trying to come up with a list of who I believed were the best coaches headed into 2013. Some of these coaches were coming off of strong 2012 seasons while some weren’t. I tried to stay as open-minded as possible and judge each coach based upon his own strengths, weaknesses and potential.

And let me get this out of the way right now — this was not a resume’ contest. I didn’t let a coach’s past success or lack thereof deter me from being honest with my own personal assessment of a coach. I have Super Bowl winning coaches who are behind other coaches who haven’t won a Super Bowl. I understand that having a great QB is key to being a winning coach in most cases and that is beyond the head coach’s control in many cases. Some of these coaches are on the come while I think others may start to fade.

I eliminated Chip Kelly and Doug Marrone from consideration since they’ve come straight from college.

Feel free to leave your own rankings at the bottom of the page. You will find out how hard this task is.

s

The Z-Report Top 20 NFL Head Coaches

1. Jim Harbaugh, 49ers - We first saw what Harbaugh was capable of when he turned the Stanford program around. Harbaugh may rub people the wrong way, but his commitment to his team and winning is obvious to everyone and he has been able to get the most out of his team. The 49ers are one of those rare teams who play with a smash-mouth mindset but integrate innovation in what they are doing on both sides of the ball. In college, Harbaugh brought a pro-style attack to a wide-open conference and has blended elements of the college game inside his power attack on offense. To me, Harbaugh is the best coach in the league.

2. Bill Belichick, Patriots - We all know that Belichick is the most respected coach in the league and it is a title he deserves. When it comes to preparation and the psychological part of game planning, there may not be anyone better in the NFL. Belichick will absolutely exploit opposing players who lack physical talent or mental toughness. It may seem simple, but he’s a master at it. I have a hard time separating the head coach from the personnel man though. I think Belichick the GM has been very average for a little while now and I’m not sure that Tom Brady isn’t saving his ass at least a little bit over the last few years. Don’t get me wrong, however, as I definitely believe in Belichick the head coach.

3. Mike Smith, Falcons - Smith first caught my eye when I noticed how disciplined his Jaguar defenses were playing against the Texans play-action passing attack. Defenders rarely found themselves out of position against the run or the pass which is the sign of good coaching. Smith hasn’t quite had the dominant offensive or defensive lines that he would like, but his team wins with what he has which is talent at QB, WR and LB. In Atlanta, I see a team that is growing up and playing to its potential. And that discipline I talked about a second ago? In 2 of the last 3 years the Falcons have been the least penalized team in football and they’ve never been outside of the 7th fewest penalized teams in any of the five years that Smith has been the head coach there. Atlanta still has some pieces to add in order to get to the Super Bowl, but the coach isn’t one of them.

4. Sean Payton, Saints - Here is the part where you might point out the fact that Payton has only been a good head coach thanks to the success of Drew Brees and here is the part where I laugh at you. Payton, whose background is on the offensive side of the ball, has shown a terrific understanding of how the running game fits in with his high-flying passing attack. The Saints have always paid attention to their offensive line and Payton was instrumental in helping TE Jimmy Graham to reach his potential. The Saints went from winning 13, 11 and 13 games in the previous three seasons to just 7 last year while he sat out due to the bounty suspension. The Saints looked completely directionless and unfocused in Payton’s absence and I expect to see them bounce back this season with Payton back.

5. Mike McCarthy, Packers - McCarthy has the good fortune of having Aaron Rodgers as his QB, but we might also be able to say that Rodgers has the good fortune of having McCarthy as his head coach and offensive play-caller. McCarthy has had double-digit wins at Green Bay in 5 of 7 seasons as head coach and he’s been able to win with a sub par offensive line and a lack of continuity on the defensive front over the last couple of years. McCarthy shows a healthy balance of understanding when to churn out the yardage and when to go for the jugular. I could see arguing for McCarthy inside the top 3.

6. Tom Coughlin, Giants - It doesn’t matter whether you like him or not, Coughlin can coach. He can really coach. In fact, if you talk to some coaches (which I did for this list), they will tell you that I have Coughlin too low on this list. Coughlin turned things around at Boston College, took Jacksonville from an expansion team to the AFC Championship game the second year of their existence and he’s won two rings with the Giants. I think Coughlin’s style is tough for some players to swallow, but he’s old school in his approach and in his expectations from his players. Tom Coughlin is football. That is who he is.

7. Andy Reid, Chiefs - Don’t let the last couple of years fool you. Andy Reid’s career has featured only 3 losing season in 14 years as a head coach and he’s won division championships six times. Reid knows what it takes to succeed and is one hell of an offensive mind, but I do have a problem with his unwillingness to let his running backs handle more of the heavy lifting. Reid understands what it takes to win which is probably why the Chiefs were as aggressive as they were in landing Alex Smith. Reid wants to try to start winning games and changing the culture of the Chiefs locker room right away.

8. John Harbaugh, Ravens - Harbaugh is a tricky one because I can’t point to his defense or his offense since he doesn’t run either side of the ball. And while there is no doubt that Harbaugh benefited from having outstanding leadership from veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, Harbaugh has still done an his job of getting his teams ready to play when the games count the most. Harbaugh made an unprecedented move by firing his offensive coordinator late in the year in a season where Baltimore was likely headed to the playoffs. That took guts, but he knew that Cam Cameron wasn’t the right guy for Joe Flacco so he took a chance and he ended up winning a Super Bowl. I would rather have a coach that is proactive in an attempt to win than one who sits by and just lets the inevitable wash over him as Harbaugh could have done.

9. Mike Shanahan, Redskins - Shanahan was considered a great head coach and then John Elway retired and things got tougher. Making matters worse, I thought Shanahan did a really poor job with personnel decisions in Denver over the last few years of his run there as head coach. Shanahan looked like he was potentially on his way out in Washington after a poor start there and then the Redskins took a shot in moving up for RG3 and Shanahan was reborn. I like the fact that Shanny made changes to his offense that allowed RG3 to shine while still staying true to his offensive concepts. I still think there is a good chance that John Elway’s success was largely responsible for Shanahan’s label as a “great coach”, but Shanahan certainly showed that he still has something left once he has a QB he can work with.

10. Jeff Fisher, Rams - I know Fisher’s career won/loss percentage is pretty average, but I think he’s better than his win percentage might indicate. Fisher is from the old school of power football and aggressive defense which didn’t always serve him well. I think Fisher’s desire to grind helped to artificially limit the potential of the Titans offense when Steve McNair was under center, but Fisher has a history of getting his teams to play hard even if they lacked upper echelon talent at times. I’m a fan of what Fisher did with the Rams. The Rams more than held their own against the physical 49′ers and Seahawks and there is no reason to believe the Rams won’t be fighting for a playoff spot this year in Fisher’s second year as boss.

11. John Fox, Denver - Broncos fans believe that Fox’s conservative nature hurt the Broncos in their playoff loss to the Ravens and maybe they are right. Fox has a defensive background and those guys are usually more conservative head coaches. And maybe it is true that Fox is only rated this highly due to the unlikely MVP season from Peyton Manning. Fox’s head coaching career has mostly featured average QB play with a couple of above average years from Jake Delhomme and some horrific play from Delhomme and others mixed in. I really like the future of the Broncos defense and we already know that the offense should be lethal. Fox has to prove he can manage this team into a Super Bowl.

12. Mike Tomlin, Steelers - I really wrestled with where to stack Tomlin within this list and, ultimately, it came down to taking a broad view of Tomlin’s potential as a head coach moving forward rather than what he’s done in the past. I think coaches like Shanahan and Reid have more than established what they are capable of. With Tomlin, I think we’ll finally get a chance to see where he stands amongst others in the league. Tomlin fell into a great spot with Dick LeBeau running a defense full of stars when he came aboard. Those defensive stars are either fading or have faded so things will get tougher moving forward. I don’t like the fact that Tomlin didn’t impose his will on the offensive side of the ball and force the running game as he said he wanted to, but he was also still learning as a head coach. Last year the Steelers faded completely out of the playoffs when they shouldn’t have, they lost to Tim Tebow in Pittsburgh in the playoffs the year before and they had a five game losing streak in 2009 that cost them a playoff spot. Tomlin doesn’t run the offense or the defense so his job is to have guys focused and ready in the biggest games. We will see how he does moving forward.

13. Gary Kubiak, Texans - In my honest assessment, Gary Kubiak is one of the best offensive minds out there. He understands how to use personnel groupings and formations as well as just about anyone out there and his offenses have been potent despite not having a tier 1 QB. Kubiak runs his team exactly the way a head coach should. He is fair but expects his players to be professional and to play with discipline. Kubiak’s rosters haven’t been loaded with talent and once they added more talent, he started winning. My biggest problem with Kubiak is that I simply don’t see him take the chances that head coaches have to take to be great. From afar, it seems as though sometimes he gets a little more tight as the season progresses and his nature appears to be to err on the side of caution when all things are equal. Until Kubiak is able to get outside of his comfort zone a little bit, I don’t think he’ll be able to reach his true potential as a head coach. I honestly believe his potential is to be one of the top 5 coaches in this league.

14. Pete Carroll, Seahawks - My gut tells me that Carroll should be sitting around #11 on this list, but I want to see how he responds to be the hunted this year. While Carroll’s success at USC really shouldn’t sway me much in regards to his positioning amongst his NFL brethren, it seems as though Carroll’s time at USC was important in terms of what he has become as a coach. Carroll has a winning record as an NFL coach despite the perception that he was a massive failure previously as an NFL coach and he has instilled an aggressive, college-like demeanor in Seattle. Carroll seems to worry less about what his team can’t do than what they can do. I think the time is right for Carroll’s enthusiasm as his style fits the NFL much better now than he did previously.

15. Marvin Lewis, Bengals - Lewis has made the playoffs in 3 of his last 4 seasons and has finished inside the top 2 of the AFC North in 6 of his 10 seasons as head coach in Cincinnati. It is worth noting that Lewis has never won in a playoff game (0-4). While there is nothing that gets you excited about Lewis’ stint as head coach with the Bengals, I’m not going to just dismiss the fact that he’s been in a division with the Steelers and Ravens and has tried to get the job done despite coaching for a cheap organization that has barely put any resources into scouting and player evaluation. Lewis has done a good job of putting together solid staffs over the years and he deserves to be rated in the top half of the league’s head coaches.

16. Rex Ryan, Jets - There was a time that I would have had Rex Ryan inside the top 6 or 7 coaches in the league, but those days have passed. There is no questioning his credentials as a defensive mind and I think his personality as a head coach is one that veterans can certainly rally around. Has Ryan been doomed by poor QB play? Sure, to an extent. However, he’s also brought many of the Jets offensive problems upon himself. The Jets inability to define themselves and execute on the offensive side has been their undoing, but it doesn’t help that Ryan hasn’t been able to find the right edge rushers to fit into his defense over the years. Ultimately, Ryan’s personality has been a distraction over the last few years and it has overshadowed the type of coach that he once was. I think Rex can still coach at a high level, but it might be time for him to get a fresh start with a new team after 2013 is over.

17. Greg Schiano, Bucs - Rutgers was an absolute mess when Greg Schiano took over there and he was able to turn the program around after years of building and stocking the program with NFL caliber talent. He was 5-1 in bowl games during his time at Rutgers as well. Schiano took over a Tampa Bay Bucs teams that put out some of the most disgraceful performances I had witnessed in quite a while at the end of the 2011 campaign as they completely quit on then head coach Raheem Morris. Schiano was able to get the Bucs to play harder more consistently and they went from being the 5th most penalized team in 2011 to the 22nd most penalized team. His brand of discipline is working.

18. Bruce Arians, Cardinals - I think Arians faces some long odds this season in his first stint as a full-time head coach, but then again, he faced long odds last season as well after taking over for Chuck Pagano and Arians passed with flying colors. While Arians finds himself in the toughest division in pro football and with a roster of sub par talent, I still can’t ignore what he was able to get from the Colts on a weekly basis. Sure, the Colts had Andrew Luck, but the entire team played hard and with spirit and Arians was able to get them up week after week. Things may not click for Arians right away in Arizona, but last year spoke very highly of his ability to get his team up for battle each week despite having an average to below average roster.

19. Joe Philbin, Dolphins - I’m doing some guess-work here, but I really liked the way that Philbin’s team fought against teams like Seattle, San Francisco and the Patriots over the second half of the season. Let’s remember that Philbin had a rookie QB who had little to no WR targets he could rely on and yet the Dolphins still finished with 7 wins after looking like the team could be in trouble headed into the season. Philbin came off poorly on the HBO reality show Hard Knocks, but then again, he was also a first time head coach who isn’t exactly Mr. Personality. Rex Ryan was awesome on Hard Knocks a few years back and look where that has gotten him. Philbin comes from a winning organization in Green Bay and he knows what he needs to do to win. With Ryan Tannehill showing growth and with the addition of Mike Wallace, look for Philbin’s team to be a tough out for opponents in 2013.

20. Gus Bradley, Jaguars - This is purely a gut reaction based on what his defenses did during his tenure in Seattle and how he has approached this offseason. Bradley was able to get the Seahawks to attack up the field and he saw players like Earl Thomas, Brandon Mebane, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman take big steps forward under his watch. I have no more background to rank Bradley over Mike McCoy (1st year coach) in San Diego since both are first time head coaches who are coming off of stints as coordinators, but I expect to see good things from Bradley.

Ineligible due to first year in NFL from college:Chip Kelly (Eagles) and Doug Marrone (Bills)

d

Follow Me

I’ll be leaving the Houston Chronicle at the end of this month so continue to follow me here:

46 Responses

Lance,
Totally agree with your assesment on Kubiak, bummed that you are leaving chron.com.
One question….do you believe it is all in time for the Texans??? We honestly only have a couple of years with AJ/Watt playing together…why are the Texans not trying to fill the gapping holes at RT and ILB next to Cush. I mean there have been guys available that you don’t have to break the bank for to fill these spots..(Winston/Clabo RT and Bishop/Dansby/Smith LB).
Or are the Texans just that much smarter than everyone else????
Once again hate to see you go, not a twitter guy but that may soon change. Best of luck.

Lance, This is the best analogy on the NFL I’ve seen. Although I reside in another state, I’m happy I can still follow you on line at 790 am. I’m looking forward to your thoughts on football and wish you success on the radio.

I’m not sold on Arians. The Colts played with a lot of emotion last season. Chuck Pagano dealing with his illness I felt factored into their play. I think Pagano and Arians made a good team and now seperated the Colts will come back down to earth this year and the Cardinals will be average at best.

Overall, I think your list is pretty fair, and mostly spot on, especially at the top. There are a couple places I disagree. First of all, I think Mike Smith is way too high. He’s had some nice regular seasons for a team that has been historically terrible (I think he’s the first Atlanta coach to have two winning seasons in a row, much less 5), but his 1-4 playoff record hurts. I’d flip him and Coughlin at least, and maybe put him behind Reid and Harbaugh (East).

Everybody else I’d say is pretty close to where I’d rank them. I might move a couple guys one or two spots. Mostly I’ll see a guy that I want to move down, then I look at the guys behind him and I’m not sure I want to move them up. Bottom line, a good coach has success in the regular season and building a team, but a great coach has success in the post season and building a champion. If a coach doesn’t build anything (I’m thinking of Tomlin inheriting the Steelers here), you can’t really tell if he is good or not until he does something on his own.

Final thoughts on the local guy. Kubiak is absolutely a good coach, based on the improvements he has made in the Texans. He needs a few more playoff wins before he can be called a great coach. Is 13 the right place for him now? You could move him one or two, but the best thing he can do about it is to win a couple more postseason games to break into the top ten, or grab a championship to get into the top 5. Until then, he’s probably about right where he is.

I would rank Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians and Marvin Lewis above Gary Kubiak. Seattle gave San Francisco all it could handle during the regular season, nearly winning the division and beat Atlanta on the road during the first round of the playoffs. Bruce Arians did an outstanding job with a rookie QB leading the Colts to the playoffs. Cincinnati made the playoffs for the second year in a row coming out of the tough AFC North: Baltimore, Pittsburg and Cleveland compared to the Texans’ softer division: Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville.

I agree that a HC can only do so much when it comes to having a great QB, but when that HC has so much experience as a QB coach & an offensive coordinator, shouldn’t we expect to see our QB improve somewhat in his areas of weakness? If the HC has these abilities then maybe that indicates that the QB himself has nothing more to offer. Kubiak remarked before the 2nd NE meeting that “Matt has to play better”. He made the same statement before training camp began. This seems to be a very hot topic among more than just we fans. Schaub will never be elite & he doesn’t have to be for this team to win the division. But he must be more than ‘serviceable’ if they expect to win the conference.

With a winning record over past couple of years, how hard would it be to make the top 20? And Kube at 13, okay that’s about right, he’s a good coach but not an “elite” coach. But Shanahan and Fisher in top 10 NFL coaches … have you lost your effing mind?

My feeling with Kubiack is that he knows Matt Schaub’s limits and runs the offense to limit the damage. He is over conservative and I think if he broke that mold a time or two this season, he would catch teams so off guard they would still be wondering what happened at the year end meeting.

How do you figure? This is a clear sign that discipline is expected from the players and that they are delivering. Glanville’s teams were heavily penalized and showed no discipline. In a way, that is what we are seeing with the Detroit Lions. They are very undisciplined.

With Kubiak, I think you’re conflating his ability to design plays with his ability to coach an entire football team. The defense was a mess before Wade Phillips. Kubiak still struggles at clock management. As you noted, he is also ultra conservative, earning the nickname Conserviak. Even the vaunted offense has struggled with consistency for most of Kubiak’s tenure, playing awesome second halves after being down big at halftime.

Conserviak Lol, I have to agree Larry the offense has been basically playing one half of football but the funny thing is if they get behind they can’t win. True Kubiak still does struggle with clock management and play calling the last I checked ESPN rated him as the 32nd best coach available only two years ago so how does he climb the charts so fast and we still are a mediocre football team? Please explain Lance?

I understand the key for winning in most cases is having a tier one quarterback but in most cases its out of the coaches control. Lance I agree but how do you explain that in regards to Kubiak whom hand pick Schaub who we both know is not a franchise or a tier one quarterback. Kubiak has not had talent like other coaches true but what does that say about the organization when he has been the coach for six seasons its either they are cheap, don’t know talent, or chose to take a certain type of player because he will help sell tickets and have awesome character traits its one of the three Lance. Kubiak is a excellent offensive mind but the offense is outdated similar to the run and shoot and he becomes very predictable due to play calling and Schaubs limitations. Honestly after this season we are going to have to make a decision on Schaub and Kubiak because they will be no better than 10-6 if not worse but as much as everyone want to see Watt get paid is he that great to pay him a 100 million dollars when clearly you have holes every where else including quarterback, because the last I checked you win the Super Bowl by paying a franchise quarterback 100 million dollars and not a defensive end. BTW, we need to wait before we make a decision on Cushing to see how he is going to play after coming off of injury otherwise he should be franchised sort of like we did with Dunta Robinson after his injury or is Cushing the exception regardless of pass performance please share your thoughts Lance.

“I would rather have a coach that is proactive in an attempt to win than one who sits by and just lets the inevitable wash over him as Harbaugh could have done.”

Yep, can’t agree with you more!

Speaking of which, it’s exactly what Kubiak does with his special teams coordinator! Joe Marciano let two probowl-caliber kickoff returners go when they were with the team. Once Marciano released them, both became superstar special-teams players!

This shows a lack of skills and knowledge on Marciano’s part, but the dude is still with the team!

I’m willing to bet if the Texans bring on a different special teams coach, we will see such improvements on special teams that the Texans will be among the very best, not the worst.

Marciano doesn’t have the talent to be a special teams coach, it makes you wonder why is he still the special teams coach?

Technically Pittsburgh lost to Tebow in Denver, without Ryan Clark because apparently he could die playing at Mile High and Roethlisomething was severly hobbled to say the least. I don’t know that this changes the score for Tomlin but I’d give him a baby bump to 9.