Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The more and more I think about this, the more and more I want Dan Haren. And I want him bad.

You can have your Roy Oswalt, but for me Haren is the best pitcher available. His stats might not look super pretty this year (4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but they are significantly higher than his career averages, and there's really no reason for concern. His K-rate and BB-rate have remained basically constant, as have his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio - the only big change has been in his BABIP, which essentially tells us that the only reason his numbers don't look that great is bad luck. Oswalt is a fine pitcher, a damn fine pitcher, but Haren is very similar from a mound standpoint but with more strikeouts, and he's three years younger.

What makes him more interesting than your average trade deadline available starter is he's not just a rental, for one, but also that none of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets are going to be involved, either because they aren't interested (Yanks, Sox) or don't have the horses (Mets), and those two issues bring the Twins in play. Of course, we can't just HAVE Dan Haren, as that's only allowed in basketball (see Gasol, Pau), and there are costs involved; both personnel and actual money.

Let's start with personnel, as in "what would the Twins have to trade to acquire Haren?" Any package discussed for this type of player generally starts with Wilson Ramos, and I don't see why the D-Backs would be an exception. I know they have a relatively young (27) catcher who can hit in Miguel Montero, but he seems to have some trouble staying healthy (although to be fair I'm only basing this on this season), and it doesn't appear there's much organizational depth behind him, so let's assume we start with Ramos as a base. If they don't want him, which would be weird, somebody like Ben Revere would work here as well.

From what I have read, mostly on John Sickels' most excellent blog, the Diamondback's system is pretty thin, particularly on the pitching side. I also read one GM told a reporter that they are currently asking for two starters and relief help. One thing I would guess they'd be interested in one of the Twins' current starters, someone with big league experience who is still young and cheap and can develop. Liriano is untouchable, Pavano makes no sense, Baker is too expensive, and Blackburn has zero trade value, so Slowey it is (and he's under team control for 3 more years). I won't shed any tears.

I'd also guess they'd like a top-ish level starting pitcher prospect. Kyle Gibson should be untouchable, but there is some depth here in the minors for pitchers. David Bromberg is a a guy I see tossed around as the #2 SP prospect for the Twins, and I'd be willing to include him, but he may be too steep a price. Plenty of other guys like Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, or Shooter Hunt could maybe get it done.

As far as relief help, assuming they'd be most interested in a young player with upside, why not Alex Burnett? He was considered one of the best reliever prospects in the system coming into the year, made the jump from AA to the majors and held his own most of the year, and he's just 22. There are a couple of other relievers on a similar tier (Rob Delaney, Carlos Gutierrez) who might fit what Arizona is looking for.

So what about a package of Slowey, Ramos, Bromberg, and Burnett? Might be kind of steep - these are a MLB caliber pitcher (maybe) and three of the team's top 21 prospects going into this year according to Aaron Gleeman, but if I'm Bill Smith I'd be willing to pay that price. I'd, of course, start by offering lower-ranked prospects (maybe Revere/Slowey/Manship/Delaney), but if my bluff got called I'd throw this one down on the table. I want to win, and I want to win now.

We also have to deal wit the real money, and this might end up being the real sticking point. It's true Haren represents a significant financial investment, as he is owed $12.75M next year and in 2011, and has a club option for $15.5 million in 2012 with a $3.5 million buyout. Sounds like a lot, and I suppose it is, but keep in mind Haren is a #1 pitcher-type. We already mentioned Oswalt, whose salary for next season is 28% higher than Haren's, but what about A.J. Burnett at $16.5M, John Lackey at $15.25, Jake Peavy at $17M, or Carlos Zambrano at $18M? There are pitchers all over the place making $12 million. I mean, the Orioles paid just slightly less for Kevin Millwood this year ($12 million). Really, his salary may sound like a lot, but it's a relative bargain compared to a lot of other pitchers.

But can the Twins afford him, is what you're wondering. Mauer's salary jumps next year by over $10 million, and Kubel (assuming they pick up his option), Rauch (ditto), Guerrier, Delmon Young, and others will get decent raises as well. They can drop some payroll back by not resigning Thome, Pavano, Hudson, and Hardy, and not picking up Punto's option. They could also drop $10 million by buying out Cuddyer. I have a feeling they would be able to bring him back cheaper, if they desired. He seems loyal like that. Like a dog.

But overall there's no doubt they would have to be willing to increase payroll to make this happen. It's also the kind of move that could lead to them not being able to keep Jason Kubel or even Liriano down the line, which is clearly not ideal. But don't you sometimes get sick of just fighting to make the playoffs, knowing odds are stacked heavily against them getting beyond the first round? Isn't it sometimes worth sacrificing something in the future for a real, legitimate chance to win now? This is the year they have the lineup to do it, and you know next year they'll be going back to more slap-hitters, so make the gamble now. DO IT.

Looking at the overall portrait here, doesn't it make sense to acquire Haren? A Haren/Liriano/Pavano rotation + whoever emerges from the rest of the mess playoff rotation would be enough to make them a World Series contender, assuming they end up winning the division after making this move (which they would be the favorite to do). Additionally, it's not like this is just a rental player. Getting him would give them a Liriano/Pavano head of the rotation for at least a couple years, which is good enough to keep them at the top of the division contender list at the very least.

We've heard about the new stadium. We've heard about the sell-outs. We've heard about the extra money. We've heard about the commitment to winning. So let's do this. Let's go and get Danny Haren. Come on, Twins. Small Market is really just a state of mind.

Plus, to help out, if you make this trade I will immediately go out and buy a Twins' Dan Haren jersey (ok, more like one of those t-shirt things with the player name on it.)

21 comments:

snacks
said...

You sound like one of those guys ISU games who thought Harrison Barnes would stay in Ames, or one of the gopher holers that thought the Gophers would have been a final 4 team with White and Mbakwe. In a word: delusional. No way the Twins pull off a trade like this. They would never give up the propects and they would never take on the money. That's two problems.

I disagree with Snacks--the Twins are on the precipice of a huge public relations DISASTER if they do nothing...or worse, if they acquire somebody like Jake Westbrook. They are making money hand over fist with the new stadium, they made promises of post season baseball, and if the D-Backs are really looking for pitching (which seems to be the case) the Twins have a million and a half #3-#5 of the rotation type guys milling about in the minor leagues.

The only "untouchables" in this situation should be as follows:

1. Hicks--if you weren't willing to part with him for Lee, it'd be an embarrassment to see him go for Haren.

2. Kyle Gibson

3. Carlos Gutierrez

4. Joe Benson

I'd be willing to part with Bromberg and / or Burnett (reluctantly) and if they have their heart set on Revere I'd be willing to watch him go in this situation.

I do feel however, that the Twins are severely lacking speed and range (especially in the OF) not to mention any kind of a base stealing threat, and Revere (however far down the line) will be able to provide that for them in the near-ish future.

The Slowey, Ramos, Bromberg OR Burnett (if it would get the job done) is, to me, TOTALLY worth it.

I've not been the biggest Haren supporter--but at this point, I'm willing to concede the fact that he practically walks on water in comparison to the other also-rans and re-treads the Twins might otherwise have a shot at acquiring.

I hate to admit it when I'm wrong...and I don't think I'm necessarily wrong YET, but if this actually comes to fruition, I'll be happy to sit in my wrongness and be wrong all the while exalting your baseball trade deadline starting pitching evaluation prowess, DWG.

The buy out for Cruddy was this last off season (2 million), which the Twins declined, meaning his option was picked up for 2011 this last winter. We will be paying, Michael Cuddyer, over 11 million dollars!!!!!

For a guy who has had 2 good years in 9 seasons of play at the MLB level.

He's as clutch as my sphincter, the day after I eat blazing hot wings and drink crappy tap beer.....not good.

"Cruddy" single handedly carried this team for the last month and a half of last season while playing a new position.

Cuddy is streaky. Deal with it.I gurantee he will get hotter then RGHrbek's mud butt again before this year is over. I expect he will end up with around 25 HRS and 95 RBI's. He will also probably finish the year playing at either SS or catcher.

Cruddy was clutch the last month and a half last year (against AL central crap, mind you), and is one of the main reasons we came back, without a doubt.

Single handedly though? That's being a little romantic about it. I would bet my paycheck that he does not cross 20 bombs or 80 rbi this year.

My point is we overpaid for a guy who has had 2 good seasons (06' and 09') and is a defensive liability, no matter where you play him, which all effects us moving forward to get a meaningful starting pitcher.

From ESPN regarding Haren: "I never thought he was getting traded, but now I do," one team's personal pitching shopper told Rumblings. "They're starting to get more reasonable. Before, they were asking for two starting pitchers off your major league roster. Now they're talking prospects, so I think they've gotten realistic. I definitely think he's moving now."

11 mil for 1 year is not going to prevent the Twins from making a move to sign a pitcher.

11 mil for 1 additional year isn't overpaying for a guy that can hit 30 bombs. Had they just signed him to a 5 year deal for 11 mil/yr I would agree with you. However, the cost of replacing Cuddyer with a free agent of equal or similiar production would have probably cost around 60 Mil over 5 years.

They made the right move, even if Cuddy's first half numbers are less then stellar.

No car wash, I replace the urinal cakes out of a bathroom at a low grade strip joint.

I still think Cruddy won't hit those numbers. He has 66 games to hit 10 bombs, and get 35 rbi. Not unachievable, but he won't do it. He's hit over 20 homeruns 2 times in his career. He has hit over 15 homeruns 3 times in his career.

You keep stating that he is worth 9.5 this year and 11 next year cause he hits 30+ bombs. Based on one year? Plus he is good for the DL at least once a year.

Fyi He is batting .182 with the bases juiced (.225 w/RISP and 2 out, and .214 w/RISP and 2 out over the last 3 years). He should be batting 7th on this team.

Negative UZR ratings, no matter where he plays, an erratic arm (except for one year).

I wish I could muster up the love that you have for him, but unlike you, I don't fancy the idea of having his dick in my mouth.

The D’Backs have started exchanging names with teams about possible Dan Haren trades and the Tigers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals and Twins appear to have varying degrees of interest in the righty. That’s just the abbreviated version of what we heard yesterday, but there’s more. The D’Backs’ asking price? High-quality major league-ready pitching. With that in mind, here are today’s Dan Haren rumors, with more to come:

•The YANKEES are actively talking to the D’backs about Haren, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. If the Yanks can acquire Haren for prospects, Stark says THEY ARE POISED to accelerate talks.

•The Tigers and TWINS, who both have interest in Haren, ARE ON HIS NO TRADE LIST, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Haren would also have to approve a trade to the Rays or Reds. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the Twins were on Haren's list.

•A source tells George A. King III of the New York Post that the Royals will listen on all of their players, including Zack Greinke.

This could be an amazing (lack of) talent dump for the Twins. I mean, c'mon, they start Jason Kendall and Yuniesky Betancourt. I'll bet they're interested in Perkins, Casilla and Blackburn. Bahahahaha! I kill me.