Gordon Changhttp://www.businessinsider.com/category/gordon-chang
en-usWed, 13 Dec 2017 22:32:48 -0500Wed, 13 Dec 2017 22:32:48 -0500The latest news on Gordon Chang from Business Insiderhttp://static3.businessinsider.com/assets/images/bilogo-250x36-wide-rev.pngBusiness Insiderhttp://www.businessinsider.com
http://www.businessinsider.com/reform-in-china-will-have-to-wait-2012-11Reform In China Will Have To Waithttp://www.businessinsider.com/reform-in-china-will-have-to-wait-2012-11
Mon, 19 Nov 2012 11:40:05 -0500Lucas Kawa
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/509bccaa69bedd1422000000-900-675/chinese-president-jiang-zemin.jpg?maxX=400" border="0" alt="Chinese President Jiang Zemin" width="400" /></p><p>Broad consensus amongst Western economists maintains that China&rsquo;s era of low-cost, export-driven growth is over. If the nation is to continue to achieve a high level of growth, reforms need to be put in place to liberalize the economy and increase domestic consumption.</p>
<p>However, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-politburo-standing-committee-2012-11">the composition of China&rsquo;s new leadership committee</a> suggests that major reforms are unlikely to take place.</p>
<p>As we&rsquo;ve <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-leadership-transition-chaos-2012-10">mentioned before</a>, there has been a behind-the-scenes power struggle between the outgoing General Secretary <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/hu-jintao">Hu Jintao</a> and former General Secretary Jiang Zemin prior to the leadership transition. Though both ruled as technocrats, Jiang favors a preservation of the status quo <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-expect-reform-from-chinas-new-leaders/2012/11/15/82cd4402-2f47-11e2-9f50-0308e1e75445_story.html">which placates the &ldquo;Iron Quadrangle&rdquo;</a> &ndash; the monopoly interests of state-owned enterprises, the internal security apparatus, the People&rsquo;s Liberation Army and the political interests of the Communist Party. Those special interests are essentially "the powers that be" in China. While they retain primacy, the institution of reforms to liberalize the economy &ndash; and the society &ndash; will remain evasive.</p>
<p><em><a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/forbes">Forbes</a></em> reports that <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/11/18/chinas-anti-reformers-take-over/?utm_campaign=forbestwittersf&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social">between four and six members</a> of the seven-man committee are conservatives &ndash; evidence that Jiang&rsquo;s influence reigns supreme. The <em>South China Morning Post</em> went further with <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1083371/jiang-zemin-faction-wins-chinas-game-thrones">a headline that declares</a> &ldquo;Jiang Zemin Faction Wins in China&rsquo;s Game of Thrones,&rdquo; a reference to the popular <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/hbo">HBO</a> show.</p>
<p>In particular, the two &lsquo;Zhangs&rsquo; on the new committee are staunch Jiang loyalists. Zhang Dejiang, China&rsquo;s No. 3, has been a long-time follower of the former President &ndash; <a href="http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/world/a-look-at-the-new-chinese-communist-party-leaders-zhang-dejiang-315023.html">his name literally means</a> &ldquo;Jiang&rsquo;s virtue.&rdquo; Zhang was educated at Kim Il Sung University in North Korea, making it unlikely that he will break up any of the Chinese state-owned enterprises which operate as monopolies, starving competition and innovation. Zhang Gaoli, who will also handle economic affairs, once <a href="http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/a-look-at-the-new-chinese-communist-party-leaders-zhang-gaoli-315170.html">staged an elaborate ceremony to honor Jiang</a> in which he was carried to Mount Tai in a manner described as &ldquo;the procession of an ancient emperor.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>
<p>A changing of the guard in China may be five years away, when five of the seven committee members <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1083371/jiang-zemin-faction-wins-chinas-game-thrones">reach the mandatory requirement age</a>. Xi Jinping, the incoming General Secretary, and Li Keqiang, the only known reformer on the committee, are the only two expected to remain past 2017.</p>
<p>For now, their ability to reform China&nbsp; &ndash; which the <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-11/18/c_123966991.htm">new leader's rhetoric seems to suggest</a> is on the table &ndash; is severely curbed by the conservative elements that continue to dominate the ruling committee.</p>
<p><strong>SEE ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-leadership-transition-2012-2012-11">China's Tectonic Power Shift - The Complete Guide &gt;</a></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/reform-in-china-will-have-to-wait-2012-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/gordon-chang-chinese-gdp-growth-2012-10GORDON CHANG: Here's Why China's Real Growth Is 0%http://www.businessinsider.com/gordon-chang-chinese-gdp-growth-2012-10
Thu, 25 Oct 2012 12:27:53 -0400Mamta Badkar
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/508958b769beddd42300000c-590-443/gordon-chang.jpg?maxX=400&amp;maxY=300" border="0" alt="gordon chang" width="400" height="300" /></p><p>Chinese <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-q3-gdp-2012-10">GDP grew 7.4 percent year-over-year</a> in the third quarter, a number that many have cast doubt on.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Now famous China bear Gordon Chang has jumped on the band wagon.</p>
<p><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/forget-data-chinese-gdp-actually-near-zero-says-120955029.html">In an interview with Yahoo! Finance</a>, he said that GDP growth is actually closer to plus or even negative one, or even flat:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"GDP is probably zero, maybe plus one, maybe negative one. This number is not consistent with the Chinese economy. By far the most reliable indicator of Chinese economic activity is the production of electricity and in the third quarter the average monthly increase in electricity production was 2.1 percent. And because electricity historically outpaces the growth of GDP, this means China couldn't have been growing much faster than zero."</p>
<p>Chang also said part of China's problem is China's leadership handover, which has distracted policymakers from the economic problems at hand.&nbsp;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Hu Jintao wants to hang around and linger in the limelight and so there's going to be a period of what the Chinese call two suns in the sky, and maybe even three suns because former leader Jiang Zemin in still there as well.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">And what this matters for the economy is that you're not going to have clear authority and that means that the technocrats who should be running the show are going to have one eye out for the political leadership. And I think that's part of the problem that they don't have the political certainty that they really need to have sound economic management."</p>
<p>Overall, Chang argues that China's situation is a lot messier than the headlines would suggest.</p>
<p><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/forget-data-chinese-gdp-actually-near-zero-says-120955029.html"><strong>Watch the entire video at Yahoo! Finance:</strong></a></p>
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<p><strong>SEE ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-china-water-2012-10">Jim Rogers Thinks The China Boom Could All Come Apart Over Water &gt;</a></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gordon-chang-chinese-gdp-growth-2012-10#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p>