Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Risk

Area (sq. mi.)

Area Pop.

Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

No Risk Areas Forecast

SPC AC 051637
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER CNTRL NOAM AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MO GRADUALLY PHASES WITH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. FARTHER SE...SEPARATE...HIGHER-LEVEL SRN STREAM
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NEWD...GLANCING THE S AND MID
ATLANTIC CSTS.
AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE NOW DEVELOPING OVER NRN AR SHOULD SOMEWHAT
DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NEWD TO NEAR CINCINNATI THIS EVE. BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE FEATURE IS MORE
DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY THE DAKOTAS TROUGH AND THE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR
TORONTO EARLY MON. LOW-LVL WAA WILL APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN OVER A
LARGE REGION E AND N OF THE WAVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VLY AND
MID/N ATLANTIC.
...ERN CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN/TNGT...
SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS...WITHIN
DEEP MOIST/WEAKLY CONFLUENT REGIME ON NWRN FRINGE OF HIGH-LVL
DISTURBANCE GLANCING THE S ATLANTIC CST. THE STRONGEST ZONE OF
ASCENT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE ADJACENT CSTL
WATERS LATER TODAY...AND TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLC REGION BY
EVE/TNGT...AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
MIDWESTERN TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
MOISTENING IN THE LAYER OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /700 TO 850
MB/ MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE FOR SPORADIC OVERLAND
THUNDER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON.
...S FL THIS AFTN...
SSW-NNE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTMS
THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER TO ITS EAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK
AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NNEWD. MODEST DEEP SHEAR ALSO
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION.
...THE OH...LWR MS...AND LWR TN VLYS TODAY...
WHILE AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND
N OF TRACK OF MO UPR IMPULSE...I.E. OVER PARTS OF IL...IND...SRN
MI...AND WRN OH THROUGH EARLY TNGT...LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW
TO SYSTEM WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY LIMITED. COUPLED WITH THE
LARGELY CONFLUENT NATURE OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE OH
VLY...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 10% TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS LOW. FARTHER
S...DEEP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND UPLIFT APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 01/05/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z