The Arizona Republic's NFL mock draft 2011 - third edition

2011 NFL draft scheduled for April 28-30

by Bob McManamanThe Arizona Republic | azcentral.com

Pick

Team

Player

Pos.Ht.Wt.

College

1

Carolina Panthers

Blaine Gabbert

QB6-5240

Missouri

Comment: Three Mock Drafts, three different guesses as to who is going No. 1 overall. In my last version, I had the Panthers taking Auburn DT Nick Fairley. In my original, I had them taking Georgia WR A.J. Green. But quarterbacks have a way of moving up the draft table awfully quick and there are two at the top of this year's class - Gabbert and Auburn's Cam Newton. Either could be Carolina's pick here, but I'm going with Gabbert simply because I've been told he's the most NFL-ready at the moment. I don't see the Panthers sticking with Jimmy Clausen. Not with a new regime in place. It may be a bold pick, but isn't that what some of us thought last year about Sam Bradford?

2

Denver Broncos

Marcell Dareus

DT6-4303

Alabama

Comment: This is where it gets really interesting. The Broncos, in my estimation, will either take Dareus or Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, whom I had them selecting in my last Mock Draft. New head coach John Fox loves to get huge, athletic guys like these two and either one would certainly help Denver's awful sack total last season (23). Elvis Dumervil will be back next season to help, but I can't see Fox passing on Dareus or Bowers. The Broncos also will be tempted to take LSU CB Patrick Peterson, the best shut-down defensive back in the draft.

3

Buffalo Bills

Patrick Peterson

CB6-1211

LSU

Comment: No change. Peterson is the real deal. He ran a 4.32 at the combine and he just might be the best overall talent available. The Bills have other pressing needs, but cornerback is a position where they immediately improve if they take Peterson. There's been talk that Buffalo is keen on Cam Newton - and I have him available at this point - but I sense that Patrick is a much safer pick and Bills fans, I'm sure, would end up loving this selection.

4

Cincinnati Bengals

Cam Newton

QB6-5 1/2250

Auburn

Comment: Now I know why the Bengals, despite all the losing, decided to keep head coach Marvin Lewis: So he could convince the team to draft Newton and keep his job for an extra five years. In all seriousness, this pick actually makes some sense. Carson Palmer wants out of Cincinnati in the worst way and is threatening to retire if he doesn't get traded. What's a team to do? Draft Newton and hope that all that star potential materializes before your eyes. I've had them taking Georgia WR A.J. Green, which would help shore up a position they need to address, but with Gabbert off the board and no security at QB, Newton could easily be the guy. Then again, they might wait until the second round and snare Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett.

5

Arizona Cardinals

Von Miller

OLB6-3238

Texas A&M

Comment: No change. Now that the top two quarterbacks are gone, the Cardinals have no choice but to go defense here and take the player I truly think they've wanted all along in Miller. Cardinals fans, rejoice. Miller dominated the Senior Bowl and blew away the competition at the combine, running a 4.46 40 with a 37-inch vertical leap. Arizona will find its quarterback through free agency or a trade, and if it ends up being Kevin Kolb, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb or my least favorite of the mix, Marc Bulger, the Cardinals will be just fine. Drafting Miller means they pass on the likes of Auburn DT Nick Fairley and Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, but they need a playmaking outside linebacker more than they need another defensive lineman.

6

Cleveland Browns

A.J. Green

WR6-4208

Georgia

Comment: Last time out, I had the Browns taking Marcell Dareus. But I also wrote at the time that Cleveland would love to get its hands on A.J. Green if he were available and in this Mock Draft, he is. Green is a sure-fire weapon and now that Colt McCoy seems to have entrenched himself as the franchise quarterback, this pick just makes perfect sense. The Browns will pass on defense and give McCoy a No. 1 target that can make all the plays.

7

San Francisco 49ers

Da'Quan Bowers

DE6-4280

Clemson

Comment: They could use a quarterback and a cornerback more than anything, but given the way this Mock Draft is processing, the 49ers' options change. Though they aren't hurting too much up front, they might find it hard to pass on Bowers - or even Auburn's Fairley - and get some help for the left side of their defensive line. Bowers' stock is slipping some, though, and the 49ers could turn to the pick I had them with last time out in Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara, a Glendale Apollo product.

8

Tennessee Titans

Nick Fairley

DT6-41/2300

Auburn

Comment: They need a quarterback, but with Gabbert and Newton gone, they have little choice but taking the best available player, and to me, that's Fairley. He's a warrior who isn't afraid to play after the whistle. That could get him into a lot of hot water in the NFL, but make no mistake, Fairley is a gamer. The Titans don't seem to mind playing a little dirty, anyway.

9

Dallas Cowboys

Prince Amukamara

CB6-0204

Nebraska

Comment: I have to caution this by saying once again you just never know what Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is going to do. But he usually is pretty smart on draft day and I don't expect anything less this year. Amukamara not only fills a need, he would shine with the Cowboys. The former Glendale standout at Apollo High isn't that far behind Patrick Peterson in terms of sheer talent. I still think Dallas needs to find a reliable offensive tackle - Colorado's Nate Solder could be it - but Amukamara at No. 9 is the way to go.

10

Washington Redskins

Julio Jones

WR6-4211

Alabama

Comment: In my first two Mock Drafts, I had the Redskins rolling the dice on Cam Newton. Now that he's long gone to Cincinnati at No. 4, I think they'd be more than happy to take Jones, who soared at the combine. Despite a fractured foot, he ran a 4.39 40 and had an 11-foot-3 broad jump. Jones won't fall below No. 14 overall, guaranteed. As for the quarterback position in Washington, well, good luck with that, Mike Shanahan.

11

Houston Texans

Robert Quinn

DE6-5254

North Carolina

Comment: Quinn missed the 2010 season due to an NCAA suspension for accepting gifts from an agent, but he's paid his dues and any NFL team would love to have him. He can play outside linebacker in Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense and should be a beast at the next level. The Texans have a stable full of very good defensive players and this pick might just help get them over the hump in their quest to reach the playoffs.

12

Minnesota Vikings

J.J. Watt

DE6-51/2279

Wisconsin

Comment: The Vikings could go in a multitude of ways with this pick, but the word is they are targeting one of the many quality defensive ends in this draft. Watt is a player I really like and his stock has been rising. If the Vikings look elsewhere, however, the pick could be California's Cameron Jordan, Missouri's Aldon Smith, Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan or Ohio State's Cameron Hayward.

13

Detroit Lions

Gabe Carimi

OT6-6 1/2318

Wisconsin

Comment: No change. The Lions will feel the need to draft the best player available and at No. 13, they will have plenty of options. There are several stud defensive players left on the board and they might be tempted to go that route. But Lions management also has acknowledged that protecting quarterback Matthew Stafford needs to be a top priority. Carimi can help do that. Ditto with Colorado's Nate Solder, my favorite tackle in this year's draft.

14

St. Louis Rams

Cameron Jordan

DE6-4283

California

Comment: They can only hope Julio Jones falls to them at No. 14, but I no longer see that happening. As bad as they want a wide receiver, the Rams will be happy to have another elite pass rusher like Chris Long, and Jordan, who's moving up everybody's list, could be the answer. He was a stud at the combine and was a beast at the Senior Bowl.

15

Miami Dolphins

Mark Ingram

RB5-10215

Alabama

Comment: No change here. However, Ingram didn't have a great combine and now there are some concerns. The Dolphins do need an upgrade over Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown and there is still a sense that Ingram can be their new featured back. Don't be surprised if Miami does some wheeling and dealing, though. Owner Stephen Ross is unpredictable and unafraid to make a splash, even if it's not always in his team's best interest.

16

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ryan Kerrigan

DE6-4259

Purdue

Comment: If the Jaguars don't go with the best available defensive end remaining, I'll be shocked. I'm guessing it will be Kerrigan, who is as smart as he is strong. The guy is a natural leader and the Jaguars need as many of those as they can get. Aaron Kampman has had knee problems and there isn't enough proven pass rushers elsewhere on the defense.

17

New England Patriots

Anthony Castonzo

OT6-7297

Boston College

Comment: No change, although as I stated before, Colorado's Nate Solder would be my pick. But I can see New England going after the local college talent and Castonzo performed wonderfully at the combine. He is massive and immovable and would fit perfectly here, helping to protect Tom Brady. Again, it's important to remember that the Patriots love to wheel and deal so they move out of this spot with something else in mind. They always seem to make out nicely in the draft, though, whatever they do.

18

San Diego Chargers

Aldon Smith

LB6-5260

Missouri

Comment: No change. As I've said before, the Chargers need to find a replacement for Shawne Merriman and Smith continues to rise on everyone's draft board. He could go to Minnesota at No. 12, in fact. Smith missed some time last season, but he's a safe pick here. The Chargers are also in need of an offensive tackle and they might pick my man, Nate Solder, but they've neglected to go that route seemingly every year.

19

New York Giants

Nate Solder

OT6-8313

Colorado

Comment: Solder finally comes off the board at No. 19, although there's a chance he could go to the Lions at 13 or the Patriots at 17. Regardless, I've had the Giants taking an offensive lineman in all three of my Mock Draft editions and this time, they get the one I see as the best in the entire draft. New York still might go after the best outside linebacker left on the board, which would be UCLA's Akeem Ayers.

20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adrian Clayborn

DE6-3285

Iowa

Comment: There is speculation the Bucs might be coveting an offensive lineman with their first pick and there are some very good ones available. However, the defensive ends are going fast and Clayborn is an intriguing pick. He may have some character issues, but if he can get the coaching he needs he could become an NFL star in short order.

21

Kansas City Chiefs

Corey Liuget

DT6-3300

Illinois

Comment: No change. As I've stated before, this could be a steal of a pick for the Chiefs, who need to improve their defensive front. They wouldn't mind adding an offensive lineman, either, and USC's Tyron Smith would be my choice if they go that route. The Chiefs also might consider UCLA's OLB Akeem Ayers.

22

Indianapolis Colts

Tyron Smith

OT6-5291

USC

Comment: It would be a surprise if the Colts don't pick an offensive lineman here, even with so many great players at other positions still available at No. 22. Smith might not be here at that pick, but if he's gone, the Colts can't go wrong with either Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod or Florida's Mike Pouncey. Keeping Peyton Manning on his feet is paramount as the gifted quarterback begins to enter his golden years in the league.

23

Philadelphia Eagles

Derek Sherrod

OT6-6305

Mississippi State

Comment: Honestly, this is one of the tougher picks in the entire first round. The Eagles are interested in finding a pass rusher, a cornerback and an offensive lineman. Given how my Mock Draft is shaking out, Sherrod might not rate as the best player available, but he'd be extremely valuable in helping to protect a vulnerable Michael Vick. The Eagles hated watching Vick take so many hits last season and can't afford to keep letting that happen.

24

New Orleans Saints

Cameron Heyward

DE6-5278

Ohio State

Comment: I'm not completely sold on Heyward, but he projects here for a few different reasons. He's one of the best remaining pass rushers left on the board, he can fit into the Saints' defensive scheme, and he's got very good upside. That being said, the Saints don't have too many major holes to fill so they can go in numerous directions here, including running back (perhaps Illinois' Mikel Lashoure). They might also look at a safety, a linebacker or an offensive lineman.

25

Seattle Seahawks

Jake Locker

QB6-3226

Washington

Comment: I hate this pick, but something tells me it actually could happen. Forget that the Seahawks need help on pass defense and a capable pass rusher. There are plenty to choose from there. But let's not forget who's in charge in Seattle. Pete Carroll knows what he wants and as much as I'd like him to address those other two areas of concern, I can see him rolling the dice on Locker, even if most scouts don't see him as a first-round pick.

26

Baltimore Ravens

Torrey Smith

WR6-1205

Maryland

Comment: This pick might be considered a reach, but it's no secret the Ravens need a receiver that can stretch the field. Joe Flacco needs a target like Smith in the worst way. But the Ravens also would like to shore up their secondary and they could be looking at Miami CB Brandon Harris, Colorado CB Jimmy Smith or even UCLA S Rahim Moore. Smith, however, is an electrifying talent who ran a 4.37 40 at the combine and recorded a 41-inch vertical leap.

27

Atlanta Falcons

Justin Houston

DE/OLB6-3254

Georgia

Comment: Houston declared himself draft-eligible at the last moment and there is a good chance he could climb up multiple draft boards before April. He might not be available at this slot because of that. If that's the case, the Falcons might be targeting a defensive end here or even an offensive lineman.

28

New England Patriots

Akeem Ayers

OLB6-4249

UCLA

Comment: No change. Now that they've snatched their offensive lineman at No. 17, the Patriots will address their pass-rushing needs and Ayers is the second-best outside linebacker in the draft behind Von Miller. He's a playmaker and has the film to back it up. In fact, Ayers may not even last this long. If the Patriots have to go a different route, they likely will look for a defensive end and might consider a running back.

29

Chicago Bears

Danny Watkins

OG6-4312

Baylor

Comment: It's no secret the Bears need to rebuild their offensive line. It allowed the most sacks (60) in the league last season and nearly got Jay Cutler killed. Something, though, tells me the Bears will make a bonehead mistake and draft a player none of us were expecting. But trust me, it needs to be an offensive lineman and if the pick isn't Watkins, it should be Florida's Mike Pouncey.

30

New York Jets

Stephen Paea

DT6-2305

Oregon State

Comment: I think Rex Ryan will fall in love with this kid, who set a combine record by bench-pressing 225 pounds a staggering 49 times. The Jets had problems stopping the run at times last season, especially in the playoffs against the Steelers, and Paea could be the answer. That being said, the Jets may prefer to go with a linebacker here. If Ayers is still available, he will be the pick.

31

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Pouncey

C/G6-5310

Florida

Comment: Well, what do you know? The Steelers hit the jackpot here and draft the twin brother of starting center Maurkice Pouncey. It couldn't be a better scenario. Pittsburgh might prefer to draft a tackle, but I just can't see them passing on another Pouncey. The Steelers could use help in the secondary, however, which means they could go after UCLA S Rahim Moore, Colorado CB Jimmy Smith or Miami CB Brandon Harris.

32

Green Bay Packers

Jonathan Baldwin

WR6-5225

Pittsburgh

Comment: In my last Mock Draft, I had the Super Bowl champions selecting Maryland WR Torrey Smith, but now that I have him going to the Ravens at No. 26, Baldwin would be the next logical pick. They're going to have to replace Donald Driver at some point and why not give Aaron Rodgers another weapon? Baldwin is a big target who can dwarf most cornerbacks and he could score a ton of touchdowns, especially when the Packers get into the red zone.