Back in July, I predicted that de Blasio could “rise into the top tier by the middle of August,” and it looks like I was right. Now that we’re in September, de Blasio is starting to pull away from the rest of the field like a doped-up race horse at the Kentucky Derby.

Before the de Blasio folks start popping the champagne, it’s important to point out that this is only the first poll to show him avoiding a runoff. It could be true that later polls will show the same thing, but there is chance this is simply an outlier.

Regardless of whether de Blasio gets to 40% or not, he is the favorite to come out on top a week from today. And all polls show him easily beating every other candidate who could be paired with him the runoff.

It’s not set in stone yet, but right now it’s hard to imagine anyone else but de Blasio winning the Democratic nomination for mayor. The fat lady ain’t singing yet, but she’s warming up backstage.