Wednesday, 15 April 2015

2015 UK General Election Forecast by ElectionsETC.com

Labour stay 1 point ahead of the Tories in our polling average
(34%–33%), but both UKIP and the Lib Dems are down a point to 13% and 8%
respectively. (In the Lib Dems’ case, that’s just a reversal of the 1
point gain they made last week.)
Our central forecast therefore still has the Conservatives winning
34% of the vote to Labour’s 32%, but UKIP down to 12% (from 13% last
week) and the Lib Dems on 10%.The latest Scotland poll from TNS
is very good for the SNP, moving them up a point in our Scotland
forecast. Our central forecast now has them winning 47% of the Scottish
vote and 51 seats (up from 46% and 49 seats last week).
With time running out to pull ahead, the Conservatives’ chances of a
majority are down to 8% (from 10% last week) while Labour’s are still
just 1%. The chances of a hung parliament are therefore up again, to
91%.
Our central forecast has the Conservatives winning the most seats,
with 286 to Labour’s 265, but falling well short of a majority. In this
scenario, even the Lib Dems and the DUP would not be enough to give them
323 MPs. This would put us in the “Con largest,but Lab+SNP+others
maj” segment on the pie chart above – an outcome our model gives a 20%
chance of occurring.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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