WootBot

Time again for another march toward t-shirt doom! Discuss this week's life-or-death struggle for sales supremacy as chronicled on the Reckoning page all week long.

Here's how the Reckoning week runs now: every Tuesday at midnight, we retire the previous week's lowest-selling shirts and launch
this here discussion thread. Tuesday around noon we'll post the all-new, all-early Reckoning Recon. On Friday, we'll juice demand and
prime the pump with a little weekend reminder post. Finally, on the following Monday, the Day of Reckoning post sounds the last call
for the Reckoned shirts. All of those posts will be linked below. Monday night (or Tuesday morning), it starts all over again. The
Reckoning, she is a hungry beast...

citizencoyote

Weezknight wrote:Well it has now officially survived 4 years, so now seems like a good time to bow out.

Agreed. If that bird was any moldier we could grow some penicillin. Of course, we've all now violated the First Rule of the Reckoning, thus guaranteeing its survival for at least another couple weeks.

Unrelated, I'm very excited that You Have to Try This Guys is available again for a week! I was always sad I missed this one, and was envious of a friend who owned it. Doubly so since I also procrastinated on Meatatarian and it was Reckoned out from under me.

WootBot

April's here, can you believe it? Seems like just last week we were buying Christmas presents and now the year's a third of the way over already. Yeesh. Speaking of over, some shirts' lives could be over by the end of the week if you don't help 'em out by purchasing one. Here are the Reckoning standings as of when I copied and pasted this:

tecker

Daily Sales Rate. I think it is an approximation of how many shirts per day sold in the last week. A shirt with a high DSR could indicate that it will rise in the ranks as it is selling more this week.

Money can buy happiness. Toys bring joy. It just doesn't last long. That's why we have Woot!

Narfcake

tecker wrote:Daily Sales Rate. I think it is an approximation of how many shirts per day sold in the last week. A shirt with a high DSR could indicate that it will rise in the ranks as it is selling more this week.

Correct. Woot determines the ranking by a shirt's daily sales. However, one can't tell how well a shirt is (or is not) doing by that alone, hence where the numbers, the nightly tracking, and the math comes into play.

citizencoyote

chickypeas wrote:Sad I was hoping my Hang in There kitty would make it a little further. What does the DSR stuff stand for? I'm newish to shirt.woot so I don't know what to make of it.

To expand on what Tecker and Narfcake said, the real-time DSR is a measurement of a shirt's performance up to the time it's posted. The Woot DSR is an estimate of Woot's sales tracking, and includes future days. As the week progresses toward the Monday Reckoning, those two numbers will get closer together.

A high real-time DSR is good, but can be misleading as it only takes into account the days the shirt has been on sale and thus for new shirts is front-loaded from debut day. If a shirt does not sell well in the days following debut, its real-time DSR will plummet. However, since it's the Woot DSR that ultimately matters, borderline shirts will often rise on Sunday/Monday morning as their sales are finally included in the Woot DSR.

Did I confuse you enough? TL;DR version: where your shirt is now is not necessarily indicative of where it will end up on Monday. Based on its sales numbers, however, it will need to pick up the pace to escape. So go promote it!

chickypeas

citizencoyote wrote:To expand on what Tecker and Narfcake said, the real-time DSR is a measurement of a shirt's performance up to the time it's posted. The Woot DSR is an estimate of Woot's sales tracking, and includes future days. As the week progresses toward the Monday Reckoning, those two numbers will get closer together.

A high real-time DSR is good, but can be misleading as it only takes into account the days the shirt has been on sale and thus for new shirts is front-loaded from debut day. If a shirt does not sell well in the days following debut, its real-time DSR will plummet. However, since it's the Woot DSR that ultimately matters, borderline shirts will often rise on Sunday/Monday morning as their sales are finally included in the Woot DSR.

Did I confuse you enough? TL;DR version: where your shirt is now is not necessarily indicative of where it will end up on Monday. Based on its sales numbers, however, it will need to pick up the pace to escape. So go promote it!

Thanks that was helpful! And not too confusing. I need to get a blog or something, I'm new to this game so I'm not good at the whole promoting thing heh. I mostly do freelance graphic design work but really want to start submitting more designs to shirt.woot.

cmillard1

chickypeas wrote:Thanks that was helpful! And not too confusing. I need to get a blog or something, I'm new to this game so I'm not good at the whole promoting thing heh. I mostly do freelance graphic design work but really want to start submitting more designs to shirt.woot.

I'd also like to add that Woot! uses the "Woot! based DSR" to avoid situations where new shirts have high initial DSR's and then plummet (okay, this was mentioned above, but...). People might think a shirt is safe and then not buy it only to see it Reckoned.

bounty42

cmillard1 wrote:I'd also like to add that Woot! uses the "Woot! based DSR" to avoid situations where new shirts have high initial DSR's and then plummet (okay, this was mentioned above, but...). People might think a shirt is safe and then not buy it only to see it Reckoned.

Imma gonna disagree here.

I've been tracking Deltas on and off, that is the CHANGE in the DSR, and Narf's RealTime is Actually really accurate for ending position, barring last minute jockying.

See Narf's RT-DSR doesn't Take into account Opening Day, it only counts sales after midnight on Debut. And while this is a much smaller pool of days for Newbs (less than 14, typically 5-10) the numbers are still PURE. If you've got an RT-DSR of 20.35 your DSR at Close will be about 20.

Here's the Catch -- the shirt keeps selling 2 shirts an hour, so Every time we look at RT-DSR, it's ALWAYS 48, but the Woot will be climbing 25.26, 30.32, 35.67,40.42... until at close (noon monday) both equasions look like:

456/9.5 = 48 DSR

Now, going back to what I initally said "barring last minute jockying" my tests show that my method is accurate 6 days a week. Mondays are HELL on my equasions. This is because people aren't buying in normal patterns, they're buying in frenzy patterns. Also, position on the list is real variable, but it's only felt in a very small range (19-22) and then it's a measurments of single shirts, not big units.

So, tl;dr - Order shirts by RT-DSR and you're looking at closing position for 1-17 and 23-25.

Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

cmillard1

I've been tracking Deltas on and off, that is the CHANGE in the DSR, and Narf's RealTime is Actually really accurate for ending position, barring last minute jockying.

See Narf's RT-DSR doesn't Take into account Opening Day, it only counts sales after midnight on Debut. And while this is a much smaller pool of days for Newbs (less than 14, typically 5-10) the numbers are still PURE. If you've got an RT-DSR of 20.35 your DSR at Close will be about 20. ...

I fully understand how the numbers are calculated, but you didn't fully comprehend my post (admittedly, I was pretty vague). The issue is that shirts debuting on later in the week (generally derby shirts, particularly Saturday and Sunday) will have inflated DSR rates to start due to the power law relationship of sales. Since sales immediately following debut day are heavily inflated and drop off RAPIDLY, their DSR values are NOT necessarily* indicative of where they will end up, so Honest Packaging (e.g.) might have appeared as a likely survivor based on initial DSR (~25), but there is very little chance it actually survives come Monday. People who only check the site 2 or 3 times a week might pass on a shirt that has very little chance of surviving because it appears as though it will survive.

EDIT: Just to be clear, I'd agree with you on Monday-Wednesday debuts, probably Thursday, and to an extent on Friday. Based on the (admittedly limited) numbers I've run, the power law curve "transition" seems to occur around day 4.

*Obviously, when a shirt sells 110 copies a day following debut (i.e. Lucky Pig), it's going to survive regardless. Even still, it only sold 107 copies combined on Tuesday and Wednesday because it's following a power law. Had Honest Packaging debuted on Sunday instead, its original position Tuesday at midnight would've been around 5th--and it's unlikely to survive.

Narfcake

rockymike wrote:My complaint is with the neck hole. I read that it was wide, but we're talking "drive a tractor trailer through it" wide. You shouldn't be able to see chest hair wearing any tee that's not a v-neck.

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