Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Palin State by State

Over the last 5 months we've polled on Sarah Palin's favorability in 27 different states. She has negative favorability numbers in all 27. Here are some more facts on Palin's numbers:

-A majority of voters in 26 of the 27 states have a negative opinion of Palin- the only exception is West Virginia where just 47% rate her unfavorably to 41% with a position opinion.

-Palin's favorability spread is -20 or worse in 19 of the 27 states we've polled.

-There are only three states where Palin's favorability spread is better than -10: in addition to West Virginia they are Nebraska and Montana.

-There are eight states where her spread is -30 or worse: in addition to typically blue states like New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island that includes swing states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

Bottom line Palin is not a serious general election candidate for President- but she would have a serious chance at the GOP nomination if she ran and that's why we keep polling her.

12 comments:

The public is finally coming around to seeing the true Sarah Palin. Instead of smiling and nodding while talking about murders and national tragedies, she should show some humility. I was compelled to create a visual commentary of her political rhetoric and its effects on my artist's blog at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2011/01/sarah-palin-made-me-do-it.html Drop by and let me know what you think.

Very interesting data. I'll be interested to see a full set, if you ever get there. If you add up the projected electoral vote totals for each of those states, the total is 343 electoral votes. Unless, of course, Obama is doing worse in most of those states, he would crush her.

this result is without the other GOP candidates mocking and tearing into her during the primaries. She can whine about the Dems and the media now, but in the primary it is fellow GOPers ripping her inanity apart.

The limits of the polling are apparent because this is general election. Asking for her chances as Republican nominee against President Obama might swing some more support her way (The Head-of-Cabbage theory that a head of cabbage would receive support from a party's supporters). Also, I would try to poll and organize results according to order of the GOP primary elections, because the sequencing matters enormously in primary elections.

I'm trying to keep the dream of a Sarah Palin nomination alive... but it seems unlikely that the GOP machine will let it happen (supposing they have any control over the lunatics that make up the GOP base at this point...)

Obama's hope is to pressure GOP candidates as far to the right as possible so that he can seem the centrist and garner all of those independent votes. Palin is useful in this manner, not because she will win the nomination, but because her positions will force other candidates to the right to compete. Then, in the general, Obama can make the nominee own his words.

Can we *please* stop pretending Palin is a legitimate politician now? Please? The idea that she could be the GOP's nominee isn't funny, at this point; it's depressing. I mean, her unfavorables in Texas -- TEXAS -- are 11 points higher than her favorables. Palin loses all of the ten biggest states in the Union in terms of electoral votes (including Texas, a state that hasn't gone Democrat since Jimmy Carter won in '76). If the Republican Party loses all of the 10 biggest states, that puts Obama 16 votes short of a victory. And that's not even counting liberal bastions like Massachusetts and Oregon, the two of which would put Obama over the top. It is electorally infeasible for her to win the presidency.

"The limits of the polling are apparent because this is general election. Asking for her chances as Republican nominee against President Obama might swing some more support her way"

That's the whole point of Tom's post, as he said:

"Bottom line Palin is not a serious general election candidate for President- but she would have a serious chance at the GOP nomination if she ran and that's why we keep polling her."

We keep finding that she's very disliked by the general electorate but the best liked or second-best liked by Republican primary voters in most states. Of course, that personal favor isn't translating to actual votes in most states.

When the election for who will represent the GOP to be President, droves of liberals need to cross over and vote in Palin.

If she wins somehow, anyone that can breath with an inkling of common sense will cross over and vote Democratic. Not that Obama will need this help but if more indies and Dems come out to vote against this dangerous know nothing, hopefully the Democrats can flip more state legislatures and possibly the House of Representatives.