How do you solve a problem like Kejriwal ?

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At the end of this post I had cautioned about the remote possibility of Kejriwal playing spoilsports. Well with the Delhi elections the possibility just got less remote. The surprising turn of events culminating in Arvind Kejriwal taking oath as Chief Minister has dramatically altered the possibilities for Lok Sabha.

In a nutshell Arvind Kejriwal has become the great secular hope. Our sec-lib establishment which is desperate to stop Modi juggernaut has come around to view Kejriwal as its champion. For them such a drastic turnaround in their view has a simple logic, Kejriwal appeals most to urban middle class voters, which used to be core constituency for BJP and more importantly Modi must attract if he hopes to upstage Delhi Sultanate. For the establishment then, the calculation becomes straightforward, more Kejriwal is successful in convincing urban voters, less likely Modi is to be at the helm of the things.

The problem for the BJP in my view is that the assessment of establishment seems correct. Anecdotal evidence suggests that even normally apathetic and apolitical middle class is warming up to Kejriwal. Kejriwal, and his network of highly motivated volunteers can leverage their strong online presence to quickly scale up their political operations at the grassroots and hence convert positive perception for Kejriwal into votes.

Ofcourse this will not convert into many Lok Sabha seats for Kejriwal at such a short notice. But it will undercut BJP votes which is the main aim of establishment and I suspect Kejriwal.

Going forward, strategy for establishment media is going to be simple, wall to wall positive coverage of Kejriwal (accompanied by incessant negative coverage of BJP), similarly expect Kejriwal to reserve and direct his strongest attacks on Modi and BJP.

Which brings us to our main concern, how should BJP tackle Kejriwal. I am afraid that in terms of immediate action, there is hardly anything BJP can do. The reasons behind Kejriwal’s appeal to middle class is his status as political neophyte as well as his open contempt and disdain for political system and process, both of which resonates with middle class. It is clear BJP being on wrong side of both the issues, can not hope to convince the disenchanted middle class.

Luckily though, BJP has a crucial ally, his name is Arvind Kejriwal.

Currently middle class is smitten with him, however as the quotidian reality of governance sinks, the untenable nature of blatantly populist policies of Kejriwal will gradually become clear to middle class and hopefully its fascination with Kejriwal will wear off.

Both Kejriwal and Congress realize this. I am reasonably sure that as a countermeasure they are looking for “martyrdom” of Kejriwal. Congress will withdraw support from Kejriwal on some pretext or other. It will not endear Congress to middle class, however at this point Congress has reconciled itself to middle class voting against it. Crucially for Congress, such a “martyrdom” act by Kejriwal will further boost his popularity among the middle class.

BJP can foil this strategy by deploying “liquid oxygen”. In a famous Ajeet joke, the villains asks his henchman “Raabert” to throw hero in “liquid oxygen”, reasoning, liquid will not let the hero live and oxygen will not let the hero die. This is exactly how BJP should proceed.

First the oxygen, BJP should promise that it will play role of constructive opposition, further it should promise then if Congress withdraws support on any flimsy grounds, it will not vote against Kejriwal government.

Now the liquid part, BJP should do its utmost to keep pressure on Kejriwal, by questioning and exposing the harebrained schemes of Kejriwal and Gang, by subjecting each and every step of Aam Aadmi Party to intense scrutiny, and publicizing every shenanigans to middle class.

Ok. So, now Modi “isn’t perfect”. Yes, that’s one way of saying it. I prefer the direct way – BJP uses the same excuses as Congress to justify its wrong-doings.

Now that you have conceded this (feel free to object if you feel you haven’t), then yes, I’ll be more than happy to talk about why or why not AAP could be an option. I’m happy that at least you understand why BJP isn’t (for people like me).

Treason is a very serious charge that you are accusing them of. Could you please elaborate more on this?

Sarab

“This approach is completely wrong, insensitive and unjust.”

Violation of human rights so-called, does NOT affect all, and if equality and justice are the ideals of law making they are to be debated not for sensitivity but for whether they stand to it. This is why lawmaking cannot be layman discourse.

The line of argument you took about Guj or BJP is BS intoto. If cong is ruling, the benchmark for BJP to do better than, IS cong. If you cannot see this, you deserve cong rule. Because people could not see this much, they kept cong around for six decades. A VP Singh or a Kejriwal comes in – disappoints more because people did NOT see their inherently flawed nature. There is no point evaluating one against rock bottom and evaluating one against some imaginary benchmark merely because the latter is better.

“AAP and other such movements can come and go”

The very fact that such things come and go precisely to roadblock BJP and NOT for anything better, still does not wake you up?

Sarab

” BJP uses the same excuses as Congress to justify its wrong-doings”

This is the suicidal and senseless equivalence idiots used for six decades – hence they deservedly got screwed for six decades. And you seem to like it that way.

In your earlier post, the first link (blogs.times…) doesn’t open a page. And second link is of your own blog which I think, talks about the high-command culture in AAP. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

I was hoping you could give more insight about this “treason” committed by them. It’s important, because I will obviously not support someone who wants to harm the country.

Aditya Jha

Well, the truth is there to see for everyone, isn’t it? Will BJP be ready to end anonymous funding? Will they come under RTI? Will they make CBI independent? Will they ban candidates with serious criminal charges? And how different are there excuses for not doing all this, than those from Congress?

Sarab

The presence of AAP is in itself a deception. It purpose of existence is NOTHING beyond preventing a stable anti-cong and nationalist govt in the country. Seen from that perspective, everything else is trivial.

Besides, its backing from xtians-commies and several other anti-Indian elements is by now too well known – treason is what AAP is all about.

As for socialism, yes the constitution calls the country socialist – an alien addition done by a rogue. And results are to be seen for decades now. Academics, public discourse, social fabric is poisoned with the commie-xtian venom for the same socialist flirtation of the rogue dynasty.

BJP coming or not coming under RTI is no topic at all – in fact RTI itself became a necessity because of opacity created by scamsters and traitors in govt, but for which there is no case for RTI to make. Superficiality is the order of common man’s day, which is why cong-AAP are able to manipulate so much.

Independence of CBI is not in the interests of the nation – it has severe and serious implications. Misuse by a few rogues inside ministry is no reason why it should be made independent and left more vulnerable to rogues in and out of ministry.

“You see, for us, and hopefully for every sane person in India, trusting Congress is out of the equation for a long time”

You seem to live in a fool’s paradise – people said the same for Indira, Rajiv too – cong kept coming back and getting worse at the same rot. That doesn’t tell you about how fundamentally flawed this reasoning is?

Sarab

Why should they? The logic that BJP should be ready to end anonymous funding affects BJP alone – leaving things open for others to keep exploiting and benefiting electorally. How are you doing to solve the basic logical problem? Same with other issues. You can’t even assure a second term for a party that did well in govt, and start making demands as if the voter is responsible. Understand the inherent problem, and look at what logically can solve it. Making fantasy demands is the sign of a scoundrel like Kejriwal, and the nature of gullible masses is to fall for it.

Aditya Jha

I disagree.

The state has no business interfering in the relationship between two consenting adults. How can you justify BJP’s stand on it, is beyond me. By all means, follow them, but please don’t be blind about every stand they take.

The benchmark you call “imaginary” is not so for a lot of people, including me. We see it day-in and day-out in several matured democracies. For instance, why is it imaginary as a standard to ban anonymous funding to political parties and make them answerable via RTI? Most of the democracies already have these standards, don’t they?

I’m saying this again. If BJP wants to be happy by comparing itself only to Congress, then it can do it at its own risk. Our expectations are way beyond that, and if we see someone fulfilling them, then we are going to support them, until they remain true to these expectations.

Sarab

“The state has no business interfering in the relationship between two consenting adults.”

So? The state does a lot that it has no business to do. The question is not whether you justify something. The question is how exactly is law made to meet the ends as laid down by constitution. The problem is articulated wrong, and debated wrong.

“Our expectations are way beyond that, and if we see someone fulfilling them, then we are going to support them, until they remain true to these expectations”

And get screwed as you did in the past several times over. Which is why you deserve cong as I said.

Aditya Jha

How is the articulation of problem wrong?

If you think that by expecting more we get screwed, and hence we should just graciously accept whatever alms BJP is bestowing upon us, then, thanks but no, thanks. I’m willing to take my chances with AAP, rather than choosing BJP at its current status.

Sarab

I mentioned how it is wrong. Twice.

Of course, and get screwed by cong – you will get cong, not AAP. If a voter needs a better party, he should demonstrate it by preferring a better party consistently. If he does not demonstrate the marginally better consistently as a policy and runs after mirages, he is basically defaulting to the marginally worse. I don’t think you are capable of understanding this, and it is precisely voters like you that are responsible for six decades of cong in India.

Aditya Jha

So, let me get this straight.

You are justifying BJP’s stand on these points, because YOU don’t know how to keep track of every paisa, even in this day and age. You are calling voters (apparently only those who make such demands) irresponsible. You are calling your opponent names and people who support them as gullible.

Amazing debate skills, you have!

Sarab

“justifying”? Do you know what that word means and in what context it is used?

Aditya Jha

Yes, I do. And I don’t see you suggesting that perhaps they could start implementing these points. It could be something as simple as raising voice against the Rs. 20,000/- limit, to get it scrapped. What’s stopping them from doing it? You know it is the root of many evils, don’t you?

Aditya Jha

Do you agree that BJP gets its funds from dubious sources? If not, then what’s the problem in opening it up? If yes, then what are we debating for?

Sarab

I am saying it is an IRRELEVANT question – if you don’t understand its how and why, then you better start learning.

Aditya Jha

No, I get it. It is irrelevant until the day BJP decides to do it. Perfect!

Sarab

No, you don’t. And for the way you are arguing, I give up the effort to make you get it.

Aditya Jha

Wise choice. 🙂

Aditya Jha

“Socialist, Commies! How can something be free? Economy will be ruined.”

It compares Congress and BJP’s manifesto from elections in this year. Be warned, some of the decorative adjectives you have used against AAP very well apply to these parties as well, going by their promises.

VeVePe

First link should be OK now, and the second link is by Surajit Dasguta, who is an ex-National Council member of your party.

VeVePe

>”Ok. So, now Modi “isn’t perfect”. … BJP uses the same excuses as Congress to justify its wrong-doings”

When someone takes a personal print-out on a printer in his office, that is also not right.

No human is perfect. But one should look at both the good that someone does as well as the bad.

Also, if person A misuses an office printer and person B embezzled thousands of crores, leaving millions in misery, there is no moral equivalence between the two.

So Modi not being perfect (and who is perfect) does not in any way mean there is any equivalence between Modi and the Congress

maidros

Dear Mr. Jha,
Let us take your points one by one.

1) The Constitution of India, as envisaged by the original authors of the Constitution, only saw fit to put India as a `Sovereign Democratic Republic’. Both the words Socialist and Secular were added in 1976 by the Socialist, Secular Congress. The fact that a crypto Communist regime saw fit to add its ideology into the preamble of the Constitution does not change the basic character of the country. Unfortunately, all it proves is that, when you elect socialist regimes, they will try to insert their ideology into the Constitution.

2) The Socialist model adopted by the various western countries – Please take a look at the graphs of growth of Europe since the 1960s when they started adopting socialism into their lives. The average decadal growth rate dropped from 4.4 in the 50s, to 3.6 in the 60s, to 2.7 in the 70s, to 2.2 in the 80s and 1.7 in the 90s and 2.1 in the 00s. In short, the growth rate has reduced to less than 50% since Europe adopted socialism. And remember, these were countries that started off rich, thanks to colonisation (even Sweden, which had no significant colonies, benefited hugely from the spin off effects of colonisation efforts by neighbourhing countries (specially German colonisation efforts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries had a lot of spin off benefits for Sweden), and Norway’s socialism has been subsidised by oil discoveries in the North Sea. (and now Barents sea). We in India have no such bonanza, and we are starting a very low base compared to Sweden or Norway. Redistribution of wealth by making the middle class and industry pay for freebies will only destroy the only growing segments of our country. The is a return to Indira Gandhi’s `Garibi Hatao andolan’. The only thing that you will achieve spreading poverty and misery far and wide.

3) The Discoms are already running at a huge loss. Accumulated losses were about 11K crore, according to their filings. Can you please link where the DERC admitted that 40% of the meters were running faster? And in any case, since when does replacement of faulty meters require the announcement of subsidies at the expense of the consumers?

4) Plugging loopholes – are you even aware of the problem of your proposed solution? The moment a consumer is subsidised, it will make him try to stay within the limit `officially’, but not really. In other words, you will see a ballooning of fake connections, people paying off the meter reader to falsely state the meter readings, etc. It will not make the the consumers cut off AC in summer, or switching off lamps to preclude reduce power usage. Giving subsidies is an incitement to infringements. These are our experiences in real life.

Let me give you a simple recital of the history of independent India. The earliest Congress leaders embarked on a quest very similar to the AAP model. It failed, not because the Congress leaders were all corrupt – many of the early Congress leaders gave away every bit of their own possessions to the people – but because the system they created really encouraged corruption. The experience of the anti-Congress socialists like Morarji Desai, Chaudhary Charan Singh, and V P Singh was similar. They did not break corruption, not because they were corrupt, clueless, or not committed to breaking corruption, but because the system was hopelessly corrupt and and they did not try to change the system. And now your Kejriwal is trying to change the system by providing more of the same – more subsidies, more freebies, more incitement for corruption! Do you honestly think providing more of the same will make things any better, just because it is done by Arvind Kejriwal?. Remember – even Laloo came to power with a ton of subsidies.

Finally, the Jan Lokpal must be opposed by every right thinking Indian. Have you not had your fill of unelected, unelectable and unaccountable alphabet soup of anti-corruption agencies? How many anti corruption agencies are there already? Kejriwal wants another group of people sitting on top of this corrupt bureaucratic enterprise, and he expects that they will be able to cut down corruption? Curiously, he did not want NGOs under the Jan Lokpal. Can you explain why?

Reducing corruption requires reducing subsidies, and opportunities for corruption, simplification of rules, as well as increasing the number of policemen and judges (by the way, India has a very low ratio of policemen/judges to people).

As for the BJP, you must be aware that the BJP has been thrown out wherever they have proved corrupt, or careless. But, under Narendra Modi, the BJP already has an excellent track record, as opposed to the speculative tripe of Arvind Kejriwal’s economics, which have already proved unworkable, even under very honest and incorruptible Congress leaders of the two decades just post independence. Narendra Modi has provided decent infrastructure in Gujarat, has consistently led the state on a high growth, has provided 24 hours electricity. Also, Gujarat post 2002 has been one of the safest states in India, with no riots that have plagued the rest of the country. Why would you want to replace a model that works (as proven in Gujarat, and is being emulated by others in MP, Goa, etc) with one that has not been tested? Narendra Modi is embarking on wealth creation, as opposed to wealth redistribution – which is the only way for us to grow out way out of poverty. Even starting from a high base as in US or Europe, Kejriwal brand of economics would hamper growth. What do you think it will do to us? It will be another lost decade, another folly in the pursuit of the will of the wisp of working socialism.

And lastly, Arvind Kejriwal is not in a position to form the government in the Centre in 2014. Narendra Modi is. The need of the hour is a strong government that can take steps to further India’s economic growth. Voting for Kejriwal is voting for instability in the centre, as another unworkable coalition takes charge at the centre, and finds all its energies consumed in fire fighting. A long policy paralysis will destroy the viability of the country. Already, thanks to Sonia’s Lady Bountiful economics, India is dangerously perched on a precipice. A strong government under Narendra Modi is vital to taking policy decisions, continuing reforms, and returning the country to the path of growth.

Joe

Big flaw in here. The author assumes that Congress will remove the support.

Congress is too shrewd to not fall into this trap. They will support Kejriwal up until assembly elections.

Adding to your article-

BJP should push AAP to go against all cases of corruption done by Congress in Delhi.

VeVePe

What is this? BJP has already supported RTI being applicable to political parties. A high degree of CBI independence has been achieved through the Lokpal Act which was substantially shaped by the BJP, particularly Arun Jaitley. So I think that takes care of your objections.

There is bitter irony in you mentioning Stasi, when it is Kejriwal who is proposing a Stasi like organisation in the form of Jan Lokpal to take care of corruption. I am sure they will do as great a job as Stasi did.

Berserker

The combined population of all the the Scandinavian countries is less
than that of India’s 4 metros combined. So they are a very poor
comparison. They have extremely high tax rates, some as high as 57 % for
higher income groups. They do have very low poverty rates. But that
does that mean raising taxes and doling out freebies to the poor is THE
solution to reduce poverty?? Add to that all these countries them rank
very highly on the free business environment indices and in that sense
they provide a totally capitalist environment for economic growth. The
other capitalists counties of europe and else where also do very well on
the poverty index with lesser taxation rates. The fundamental flaw in
all such high taxation models is the same as the flaw in the current
electricty tarrif determination policy followed by regulatory
commissions.Burdening the higher consumption consumers to cross
subsidize the so called poorer consumers. Such flawed policies might
work in countries with miniscule populations and uniform ethnicity,
however large countries like India need economic growth and create
employment opportunities much more than freebies for its citizens. As
far as the socialist word in the constitution is concerned it along with
secularism was introduced by Indira Gandhi during the emergency via the 42nd amendment.
Unfortunately
god kejriwal is just another political opportunist who has time and
again compromised with his own self righteous propaganda. The sooner
people see through his deceit the better.

WorriedIndian

Mr Jha, you talk about the Nordic countries but do you even care to realise the basic differences between them and India? No wonder you’re an AAP supporter. Here are my reasons as to why some sort of socialism works there and why it is bound to fail in India:

1. India’s population is massive and there is no way it can become a welfare state. Compare the population with Nordic countries and you will see what I mean.

2. India is ethnically very diverse with hundreds of languages, dialects and tongues. Religiously too, we are very very diverse. It is impossible to bring all of them under the same umbrella.

3. India is not resource rich! This is a key criteria as to why the Nordic countries are successful and India isn’t.

4. Majority of the Indians live below the poverty line while this is not the case with the Nordic Countries. If there isn’t a gulf between the have and the have nots, socialism will flourish. In a country like India where the youth population is amongst the highest in the world, the last thing that we want is freebies.

Please educate yourself about your own country first and then look elsewhere.

ChandraS

why you crib over one statue for Sardar who brought India’s unity, while you have no qualms of having millions of Nehru dynasty statues occupying every nook and corner of the country let alone praising every govt scheme named after them ?

Your intolerance to a man who stood for ‘real’ secularism that most of Indians want and aspire for , just exposes your abrahamic goebells on Hinduism.

Further, statue cost is borne by every wiling Indian, I donated sum and there are millions ready to do so. The material is collect fro every willing villager. Why you crib over this, we have not asked your contribution, except to accept Sardar’s contribution to the land. The plans are in place to make the place a major tourist attraction.

Even if your hallucination ‘operation lotus’ is true, you must remember all those MLAs have resigned their seat, re contested and won with popular mandate.

Learn to respect other paties’ mandate from people, not just paint everybody as dishonest who doesnt support your crappy communism or feudal-dynastic preferences.

Suneeta

Dear Jitendra

Dont forget before delhi election results, there was only Modi Modi everywhere even live telecast on many News TVs.
I beleive TV channels want Hot topics to get trp only so NAMO need to do something that will regain him on TV exposure!!

Jitendra Desai

Thnx Suneeta for writing.You are right about need for NAMO and BJP to respond to this new challenge.But MSM is not merely seeking more TRPs.They have a plan to create AAP/AK wave.Pl refer to today’s [Sunday] Times Of India.On front page they have head lines AAP’s decision to fight LS elections.On inside page there is one more Headline about NRIs joining AAP and then on central page there are three articles [ out of five] devoted to AAP !