Facebook's IPO lockout has ended and now it's trading at about half of it's IPO. It's around $19 a share right now. There are other lockouts that are ending in the coming months.

I'm not an investor and have a very elementary understanding of how this all works. Most of what I know I learned by watching Trading Places about 1,000 times. I have nothing invested right now other than a few bucks in a few mutual funds.

I'm not exactly sure why Facebook's stock is such shit. I have a feeling that they haven't quite figured out how to monetize it yet, or something. But, I'm fairly certain that Facebook is not going to go away and is only going to continue to get bigger and more popular. (Google + got stomped, is that still even a thing?)

Can someone explain to me like I'm Eddie Murphy why I shouldn't take a shitload of money and invest in Facebook right now?

motherscratcher wrote:Facebook's IPO lockout has ended and now it's trading at about half of it's IPO. It's around $19 a share right now. There are other lockouts that are ending in the coming months.

I'm not an investor and have a very elementary understanding of how this all works. Most of what I know I learned by watching Trading Places about 1,000 times. I have nothing invested right now other than a few bucks in a few mutual funds.

I'm not exactly sure why Facebook's stock is such shit. I have a feeling that they haven't quite figured out how to monetize it yet, or something. But, I'm fairly certain that Facebook is not going to go away and is only going to continue to get bigger and more popular. (Google + got stomped, is that still even a thing?)

Can someone explain to me like I'm Eddie Murphy why I shouldn't take a shitload of money and invest in Facebook right now?

Way I see it, they gotta figure out how to make $ off people who access FB from mobile devices. No one plays games, buys shit, or clicks on ads from mobile devices. And mobile device use continues to become more and more prevalent.

They can't figure that out, it will be hard to make $ buying the stock at $19 a share IMO.

"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

motherscratcher wrote:Facebook's IPO lockout has ended and now it's trading at about half of it's IPO. It's around $19 a share right now. There are other lockouts that are ending in the coming months.

I'm not an investor and have a very elementary understanding of how this all works. Most of what I know I learned by watching Trading Places about 1,000 times. I have nothing invested right now other than a few bucks in a few mutual funds.

I'm not exactly sure why Facebook's stock is such shit. I have a feeling that they haven't quite figured out how to monetize it yet, or something. But, I'm fairly certain that Facebook is not going to go away and is only going to continue to get bigger and more popular. (Google + got stomped, is that still even a thing?)

Can someone explain to me like I'm Eddie Murphy why I shouldn't take a shitload of money and invest in Facebook right now?

Ask someone who invested in MySpace.

It just seems different. Facebook has 900 mil users. Myspace never even came close to that. Facebook isn't going away.

swerb wrote:Way I see it, they gotta figure out how to make $ off people who access FB from mobile devices. No one plays games, buys shit, or clicks on ads from mobile devices. And mobile device use continues to become more and more prevalent.

They can't figure that out, it will be hard to make $ buying the stock at $19 a share IMO.

But that's just it. Facebook is so monsterously huge that I don't see anyone ever taking over their role in social media. It's inevitable that they eventually figure it out.

swerb wrote:Way I see it, they gotta figure out how to make $ off people who access FB from mobile devices. No one plays games, buys shit, or clicks on ads from mobile devices. And mobile device use continues to become more and more prevalent.

They can't figure that out, it will be hard to make $ buying the stock at $19 a share IMO.

But that's just it. Facebook is so monsterously huge that I don't see anyone ever taking over their role in social media. It's inevitable that they eventually figure it out.

Right?

It can get margianialized, chipped away at. Twitter will continue to steal people like me that never even visit FB cause I like the feel of Twitter better. Google will eventually figure out social networking. Others will emerge. And FB is not making gobs of $ now ... and how much bigger can it get? I see it at almost near peak popularity currently.

"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:FB has 900 million users -- I'll bet half of them are fake, and another third are unused.

I'd take that bet...

One word:

Businesses

don't think so - businesses that want to embrace social media will develop their own platforms/tools. FB would need to fundamentally change their business model. Not saying they won't, but I'd bet against it.

I don't need to be patient, they're going to be shit forever. - CDT, discussing my favorite NFL team

IMO social media is still in its adolescence relative to where it will be as a "finished" product.

Which hardly makes a good investment. Someone should dig up the "old" investment thread and look how MO and PM have fared...

How do they turn users into revenue, and how does that revenue eclips costs. Buffet may be a liberal loon, but he knows that he must know how a company works before he invests. Poor saps in Facebook and Groupon...

Long HAL, VZ, FTR, MO, and PM :)

"When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience."

They were too ambitious with their initial evaluation, but their most valuable asset is their mountains of data. They know everything about everybody. You can not put a price on that, even if they haven't figured out how to monetize it yet. Personally I'm not touching the stock, but I'm very curious to see how it plays out.

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:FB has 900 million users -- I'll bet half of them are fake, and another third are unused.

I've had MO since before KFT and PM split off. Cashed outta KFT, but the other two just do not disappoint. They have pricing power and market share to absorb declining smoking rates in addition to a broad product base. MO's wine business and Miller stake also help even things out, plus the massive yeilds... I'm happy!

I'm really liking HAL right now. I know its run up a bit, but its so undervalued compared to historical P/E. I had a nice gain in late Feb, but moving my Dad to his new office f'd my timing, and being greedy I let missing a big gain cause me to lose a small gain. Currently treading water, but thinking it hits just north of 40 before YE.

Also lost track of SIRI and it popped. FTR finally stabalized after buying Verizon's landline bidness, its cureently the stock I am pouring my monthly money into...

"When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience."

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:They were too ambitious with their initial evaluation, but their most valuable asset is their mountains of data. They know everything about everybody. You can not put a price on that, even if they haven't figured out how to monetize it yet. Personally I'm not touching the stock, but I'm very curious to see how it plays out.

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:FB has 900 million users -- I'll bet half of them are fake, and another third are unused.

Orenthal wrote:Which hardly makes a good investment. Someone should dig up the "old" investment thread and look how MO and PM have fared...

Have I ever told you how much I love you?

Next time someone says not to invest based on message board chatter, I'll show them my portfolio with the bright green PM and MO. "There's this guy named Orenthal...".

They've also been gobbling up tech companies for the proprietary tech. At first, I hated the stock because I knew (being a user) that, aside from charging a monthly fee which would kill the user base, there is no way to monetize the customer base. The ads are worthless and there are whispers that FB pays services to click on the ads so they can raise the rates on the advertisers. The value is in, as you said, the petabytes of data and the proprietary tech they've bought.

That being said, there are worse stocks to buy and hold for 20 years than Facebook.