000
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL