Captain Mainwaring

G152

Winston First is allied to Liebor.
Ignore them.
The greens are without an electorate MP
Ignore them
David Seymour is worth working with (and he has a sense of humour)
Peter Dunn is done.. he isn’t trustworthy
Maori Party appear to get some baubles and be trustworthy..
And no matter what, its always Keys fault 🙂

Boris Piscina

But as we know, polls tend to overestimate our own ratings and those of the Greens while underestimating support for NZF and getting Labour about right. They also make presumptions about various minnows holding on to electorate seats which are unlikely to be valid this time around. That being the case;

National 55
Labour 35
Greens 12
NZF 18
Act 1
Dunne 0
Maori 0
Mana 0

And Peters won’t put the Greens into Government. There could be worse outcomes.

MickMac

Captain Mainwaring

Boris.

1. I can’t see Winnie getting any more than 9% of the vote – you’ve got him at 15.
2. I can’t see Liabore getting any more than 25% – you’ve got them at 29.
3. Act will get at least 2.5%, which will give them 3 seats.
3. I still think Maori will hold on with 1 seat.
4. Agree with you on Greens, Dung and Mana.

mikenmild

Captain Mainwaring

@deadrightkev

Have you watched how Act’s election night score rated against mid-term polls for the last four elections?
And have you factored in?
1. The growing appeal of David Seymour.
2. Where are a big chunk of the former Conservative votes going to go?