Toward guarded optimism

Friday

Jun 1, 2012 at 2:00 AM

Despite this country’s many challenges, which we don’t seem able to address properly, if we can survive the short term (easier said than done, I’ll admit) I am guardedly optimistic about the long-term outlook.

Stew Goodwin

Despite this country’s many challenges, which we don’t seem able to address properly, if we can survive the short term (easier said than done, I’ll admit) I am guardedly optimistic about the long-term outlook.

Deciphering conservative socioeconomic principles is not always easy. But it is a task worth doing because as this country moves through the next few years an interesting phenomenon will take place. Two of the cornerstone tenets of conservatism will be moving in opposite directions on the political spectrum. One will become a necessity, while the other will gradually, if noisily, fade into the background.

Fiscal conservatism will become a required policy for reasons graphically described in a poem. In 1918 Edna St. Vincent Millay composed a poem titled First Fig. Applied to our economy, it aptly depicts the situation we find ourselves in today.

My candle burns at both ends; It will not last the night;

But oh, my foes, and ah, my friends –

It gives a lovely light.

Even the most ardent advocates of stimulus acknowledge that if we hope to keep our candle burning over the longer term, financial discipline will have to be implemented. Even they realize that sustained growth will not be possible without a significant reduction in debt levels.

All but the most fervent anti-tax ideologues have publicly stated that revenues will have to be enhanced by the closing of at least some loopholes. They recognize that, with taxes at their lowest percentage of Gross Domestic Product since before the Great Depression, unless revenues are supplemented even their favorite programs will be starved for funding.

These imperatives progressively growing more urgent will bring American citizens to the realization that lifestyles considered acceptable in prior years are no longer affordable. Thus they will understand that for this country to live within its means belt tightening is in order. Basic mathematics will compel citizens to conclude that in addition to closing tax loopholes the big-money budget items of defense and entitlements will have to be trimmed.

There is no plausible long-term alternative. Our enduring debts and deficits demand fiscal conservatism. At the same time as this concept is moving into the political mainstream, another will be heading to the sidelines.

Demographics more than any other factor will marginalize social conservatism. The core of its current advocacy is white, over 60, and deeply religious. This group’s brand of Biblical and constitutional fundamentalism will run afoul of population trends that foretell a shrinkage of support.

Before mid-century, non-Hispanic whites will be a minority in this country. In fact, the most recent quarter’s statistics show that they accounted for less than 50 percent of new births. Over the coming decades older, intensely religious whites will constitute a progressively diminishing minority of the total population. Americans who are now under 30, and in time will take over the political system, are much more willing to accept a multi-racial, multi-cultural, and multi-faith society.

They are also much more likely to follow the advice of a twelfth century French scholar, Peter Abelard: “By doubting we come to enquiry, and by enquiring we pursue truth.” Doubt, enquiry, and truth are mortal enemies of fundamentalism. As such these qualities will gradually transform social conservatism from a political hot topic into an afterthought.

What these directionally opposite trends suggest is a change in political focus from the extremes toward the center. This country’s challenges will not disappear. Major reforms, such as taxation, elections, and entitlements, will still have to be undertaken. But the ability to address them rationally should gain momentum. Therefore, if we can manage to squeak through the next few years, the long-term outlook could well become guardedly optimistic.