Left Early yesterday and got to the farm just in time because it appears a couple of inches of snow fell overnight...

Perfect excuse to not do anything and watch football... (NFL Wildcard games Saturday & Sunday - BCS Championship Monday)... I'm getting a late start on this post so I'm going to be adding pieces to it all afternoon to recap all the various "calls" I've made throughout the season and what that all means...

The bottom line is (and this is why I do this on this blog)... Sports wagering is VERY MUCH like portfolio management... You have winners and losers... The idea is to stay ahead of the margin you pay for your losses (which is 10%)... So you basically have to be "right" on 53 out of every 100 chances to BREAK EVEN... It's not as easy as it sounds...

You must also consider that there is oftentimes a "herd" mentality in sports... The fans and public like to latch on to, and support "winners"... Nobody wants to be sitting in a rabid sports bar and be the only one rooting for the "other" team to cover a line... Not AT ALL unlike the "bull-bear" mentality on Wall St...

Vegas is basically the JPM or Goldman Sachs in this game... They will do everything in their power (psychological trickery), to get you to side with the wrong team, or get you to lay more points than you should which will favor them marginally, over time, when booking all bets...

I'm going to do more complete game writeups this afternoon... But I'm leaning on taking the points with the SEAHAWKS, JETS, & PACKERS, and laying the points with the RAVENS...

The amount of "units" is yet to be determined because I have to wait to see the final tally on where the public is coming down... As always, I'm not really betting pointspreads, I'm betting the publics reaction to the pointspread...

As always - in this thread you can talk about anything you want... I couldn't believe an article this morning that the US Justice Department is going after "private tweets" from a member of Icelandic Parliament...

Big Brother bitchez!

(CV is doing his part to help "Big Brother" by getting you all conditioned to just sit on your couches all day and enjoy the spectacle of BREAD & CIRCUSES)... Soon - I'll be moving into commentary on the daily soaps & talk shows... Or maybe I can get you all to hang on my every word when I marvel you with my tales of eating Surströmming on one of my many visits to Sweden... Bon apetit!

---

NFC Wildcard

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (4:00 EST)

Line: Saints by 10

For those who lay double digit lines without thinking (in the regular season), understand that this is not the regular season... Playoffs mean "elimination" from contention to the losing side... Nobody is doing any "learning", ot "looking forward" to next weeks game... They've forgotton about what they did last week (and, perhaps all season)... It's important to understand that psychological mindset... One should also try to understand the pressure of being a favorite, or a "dog" in a playoff game... There is added pressure for a team who is "supposed" to win over a team that considers themselves just lucky to be there... Nowhere is this more evident in the Saints vs. the Seahawks... The Saints are defending Super Bowl Champions, and the seahawks are much maligned as the "7-9" team that backed into the playoffs because they happen to play in a week division...

Since the "wildcard" system has been in play, there has NEVER been a ROAD team laying double digits to an opponent... The most points ever laid were the Rams laying points (6) on the road to these same Saints in 2000... Ironically, the Saints won that game knocking the Rams out of contention...

Seahawk detractors will point out here that they have lost games by over 15 points 6 times this year (including a 34-19 loss to the Saints at the Superdome earlier in the year)...

I'd remind everyone that Matt Hasslebeck had his most passing yards of any game this season on that day, and that the score was 27-16 at halftime... The Saints were playing the week AFTER their bye week so were fully rested and prepared... They also had the services of Chris Ivory, and Marques Colston (both of which are out for this game)... The Saints, atre also down to 3rd string tight ends (which was a huge sorespot in their loss to Tampa Bay last week)... The Saints have backed into the playoffs losing 2 out of their past 3 games, and are without a solid tight end/running game package to "grind it out" against Seattle like they were able to do in the second half of the first game (while they were playing in the friendly confines of the superdome)...

I'm not trying to make a huge case for playing the Seahawks here, but if they manage to take care of the ball and not committ turnovers, I think they can stay in this game... I'll go with the SEAHAWKS for (2 units)...

AFC Wildcard

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (8:05 EST)

Line: Colts by 2.5

The Jets cone back to Lucas Oil Stadium in a re-match of last years AFC Championship game... Don't forget that the Jets jumped out to a lead (and were leading at halftime), until Peyton Manning opened up on them in the 2nd half...

I remember watching that game that the Jets were attacking Manning with blitz schemes the entire first half, but then went to simple zone coverages in the 2nd half... I reallt think that cost them the game... The "analysts" like to tell you that Manning is so smart, and he'll eventually figure out the blitz... Some of that is true, but it really takes a team that can "man-up" against receivers that are inferior route runners, and have reliable hands... That's the dynamic you have with the Jets (with Revis & Cromartie on the corners), coupled with the fact that, on this occasion, Mannings weapons are NOT named "Wayne", "Clark", "Harrison", or "Collie"... But instead, are named "Wayne", "Garcon", "White" & "Tamme"... Only "Wayne" has any big game experience...

I'm sure Manning will find a way to get these fellows the ball, but I'm guessing a few drops may occur as well... or worse, "tipped balls" (which, when you're talking about a Rex Ryan defense, often wind up as interceptions - not the fault of the QB, but of jittery WR's)...

Oftentimes, there's also something ELSE in a game (which never quite makes it into the betting lines)... Which is why the public simply automatically puts it's $$ on the arm of Peyton Manning to the tune of 70%...

This past week, a little 11 year old kid died of cancer that the Jets (and especially Mark Sanchez) had forged a bond with... Over the past month, Sanchez & this kid had basically become BFF's, texting back and forth, etc... The kid lost his battle this past week... Don't be surprised to see Sanchez come up with some kind of herculean performance... I don't like to go AGAINST that type of voodoo...

Maybe in the end, this game will come down to the sure foot of Adam Vinateiri, and the vanilla Colts will move on as they always seem to do... Maybe Manning will beat Rex Ryan again... But I'm going to side with the JETS for (1 unit) here...

SUNDAY NFL PLAYOFF GAMES

AFC Wildcard

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 3

I am very thrilled that both of my picks came in yesterday (Seahawks & Jets)... NOT for the reason anyone might suspect (the winnings - which were both only mild unit plays)... I'd be "beating my chest" if they were 5 unit picks and/or "called" an upset (although for all intents & purposes - I was calling a Jets upset with a short line)... With the Seahawks - I was only calling for a "cover" (which pays just as much though if you're not on the Money Line)...

Anyway, aside from all that background, the real reason I was happy with yesterday is because Goldman Sachs, JPM, Vegas WON BOTH GAMES (at pretty decent spreads to the public)... When you're getting 65% - 70% of the money on one side, and that side loses and has to pay you the 10% vig... Then you're having a good day... Vegas had a good day yesterday...

That's why it's "easier" to be able to side with a team (Ravens), where more than 80% of the $$ is going their way... Believe it or not... I CALCULATED THAT POSSIBILITY yesterday (which is a big reason I ended up siding with the Jets & Seahawks)... Not that I was sure that either or BOTH were going to come in... Only that I KNEW that if the SAINTS, COLTS, RAVENS, & PACKERS all won & covered this weekend, Vegas would be shutting down)...

Ironically now... Vegas is "playing with the houses money"... lol

I've found over the passage of time that things tend to even themselves out (always with Vegas catching the vig)... And oftentimes, the book is closed and ledgers adjusted at the end of each week)... During the regular season, the Sunday Night Football & Monday Night Football games are the great equalizers (and sometimes the 4:00 games themselves)... But in the postseason, it all comes down to one or two shots... I don't know how or why, but vegas ALWAYS gets paid... What you have going this week is the fact that the BCS National Championship is on Monday Night... That will be a heavily wagered upon event... 65% of the money is on the auburn Tigers laying points (and the SEC is 5-1 in Bowls)... You can bet that Vegas is a HUGE FAN of the Oregon Ducks...

But a "scenario" needs to be created in order for the Ducks to be a MUST WIN... That scenario took a little dent yesterday when the public paid Vegas on both the Saints & Colts folding up... The "sheeple" (just like on Wall Street), need to be lured back to the betting window...

I'm hoping the way that turns out is that BOTH the Ravens & Packers win and cover today... BOTH THESE teams were my "preseason picks" to go to the Superbowl and represent their conferences... If these games go the other way (Chiefs cover - eagles cover)... The public will be broke on Monday and Vegas will fail to have lured in pigs for the biggest slaughterhouse of them all...

If the Chiefs win, people are going to be like "F*** THIS!", Seahawks & Chiefs moving forward? WTFF?

Anyway, I just wanted to present the "dynamics" of the entire SPORTS BETTING WALL, before getting in to "X"'s & "O's...

The Chiefs are clearly an inferior team to the Ravens... The Ravens (this must be said) have to be as happy as can be to be playing the Chiefs in this first round... It "could have been" the Colts (until the Chiefs got blown out at home by the Raiders in the last game of the season)... The Colts have had the Ravens number for many years now... And while I doubt the Ravens think they CAN'T beat the Colts, it's just a relief to dodge that bullet again... Put it this way, the Ravens are 3 point FAVORITES at KC... They would have probably been 2.5 "dogs" at Indy (same as Jets)...

Now that presents a different dynamic... YOU'RE NOW A FAVORITE ON THE ROAD (as the Saints were)... That puts added pressure on a team... As the "dog" team can just play loose and hope for the best...

I'm telling you, as a Ravens fan, that "psychology" doesn't work on the Ravens... They're a team that knows how to take care of business on the road... they have the best POSTSEASON ROAD record, by far, of any team in the NFL over the past decade... They even went in to Foxboro, Mass last year and manhandled the Patriots (the only "home" game that the Patriots have lost in the past 4 seasons)... Year before, they beat the Titans in Nashville (when the Titans were 14-2 with the best record in the NFL)...

The Chiefs are a little "suspect"... They have "no wins" against any teams that are in the playoffs this year... In fact, they've only PLAYED one team that made the playoffs this year (the Colts) where they poured their guts out using all kinds of trick plays & gadgets and still lost by 9 points...

So while the "expert" announcers will tell you all about their #1 ranked rushing offense, and Matt Cassel's "career year"... Remember, this was all done against teams like the Broncos (twice), Jaguars (missing their starting QB), Texans (worst defense in NFL), etc.

Ravens, OTOH... Ended the season with a 12-4 record... The losses were... Overtime loss to Patriots (on the road), in a game they had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter (Patriots were #1 seed in AFC)... Loss to Falcons (on the road), in a Thursday Night game on 3 days rest... Raven had the lead with 50 seconds to go before the referees started throwing flags all over the place allowing the Falcons to score a final TD on a pass to Roddy white in which HE HIMSELF admitted that he's committed an offensive foul on (Falcons were #1 seed in the NFC)... The Steelers... In which the Ravens had the lead with 2 minutes to go until huge play by Troy Polamalu forced a fumble and set up the Steelers with a game winning TD... And a loss to the Bengals in week 2 where the Ravens just didn't show up to play after wiping themselves out on the first MNF game of the season vs. the much hyped Jets...

Of course it always sounds like I'm touting the Ravens (which is true)... But it is NOT without merit...

What I want to point out here is that it would be a HUGE upset if KC beat the Ravens here (perhaps even more than the Seahawks beating the Saints)... The Saints were "backing in" to the playoffs... They'd lost 2 of their last 3 games (one to the Ravens), and were really coming unglued anyway... The Ravens, OTOH, won their last 4 games in "business like" fashion... They'd gotten it together after the emotional Steelers loss and just went about winning football games...

Nobody really knew why the Chiefs fell apart in the last week of the season against the Raiders... It's not like they weren't playing for something... A win would have made them #3 seed, and instead, they dropped a position to #4...

The Ravens, finding themselves in this spot, aren't thinking ("oh, I hope we can compete in an NFL playoff road game")... They're thinking "Been here - done that - we're EXPECTED to win - let's get it done"... The KC "mojo" is that their NFL statistical rankings aren't that bad, but they've compiled all of them against inferior opponents with no pressure... Their "stats" vs. quality teams aren't so great... Their defensive coordinator is Romeo Crennel (who the Ravens used to beat up on a regular basis twice per year when he was head coach in Cleveland)...

They ALSO know now (with the Jets having beat the Colts)... That a win here, books them a ticket to visit their ARCH RIVAL Pittsburgh Steelers next week... Think the Ravens want to pass up that chance? The Steelers were the team that knocked off the Ravens in the AFC Championship 2 years ago when the Steelers went on to beat the Cardinals...

The only thing I DON'T like about siding with the Ravens is laying points (anytime) on the road, and the fact that they're supported by the public... Normally - I wouldn't lay any "units" on a game like this, but the SPECIAL thing is is that it's a PLAYOFF game (single elimination)... AND that Vegas had a good day vs. the public yesterday... So I'm going to lay (3 units) on the game with the RAVENS...

My $$ management is as follows: Yesterday I won 3 units (2 on Seahawks, 1 on Jets)... So I'll put those same units on the line...

- If that comes in, I'll have 6 units in pocket... (and probably go "light" on the Packers... 1 unit)

- If the Chiefs "cover"... I'll be back to even (owing the $30 juice)... But in that scenario, Vegas would have WIPED OUT the public in 3 consecutive games... I'd then GO LARGE on the Packers (probably 4 units)...

- If it's a PUSH (which is possible, with a 3 point spread)... Then I still have $300 in pocket and would probably go about 2 units on the Packers...

Got all that? :-)

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Dog Killers (4:30 EST)

Line: Eagles by 2.5

I've already given away (in the previous write-up) which way I'm siding in this game... As always, it's not all about "X"'s & "O"'s, it's about invisible things...

For whatever reason, the public still seems to be in love with a "dog killing" quarterback, and a President of the United States who likes to call him up from time to time to say how PROUD he is of his dog killing skills that he is a role model in todays society...

I've said enough about it... And at this point, I'm happy to let WHATEVER WILL BE... BE... If I live in a country that wants to turn dog torturers into heros, and honor Chicago mobsters who want to enact a totalitarian government police state while people cheer him on, and award him Nobel Peace Prizes... So be it!

As always... I like to create "scenarios" in my mind... Oftentimes, STRANGE SEQUENCES OF EVENTS come jelling together to create that scenario...

I remember quite vividly this past football season (it was just AFTER the game where Vick exploded on the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football), and the Falcons were quietly winning games, that I said to myself...

"Oh no... here we go... It's going to be the Eagles playing the Falcons (in the Georgia Dome) for the NFC Championship game... You could just see it coming... The DOG KILLER IN CHIEF going in to "stick it to" the team that released him from the organization (and was able to tear up the $100 million contract on misconduct clauses)...

I don't believe for ONE MINUTE that Vick is not still vindictive towards Arthur Blank (Falcons owner)... In fact, when the Falcons traveled to Philly this year, Vick specifically asked permission to be able to show up to the stadium late so he wouldn't have to meet Blank before the game (that was while Vick was still rehabbing an injury)...

What does that tell you? If I were to tell you that I thought it's because Vick has not changed ONE IOTA (except that he no longer kills dogs because, as "Pavlov's Dog" would dictate, killing dogs gets you 18 months in Leavenworth and takes away $100 million dollars)... Maybe you would tell me that, "No - I'm sure he's a model citizen now, and that all his words have nothing to do with the fact that it's the only way he'll be able to score another lucrative million dollar contract, or get to pal around with the "celebrity ass kisser in chief"...

Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle (but never foreget that the key word there is "lies")...

Anyway, back to "scenarios"... The "scenario" now here (with the Seahawks having defeated the Saints, is that the Seahawks will travel to play the Falcons next week [where the clock will strike midnight], and Atlanta WILL, IN FACT, be hosting the NFC Championship in the Georgia Dome...

Now - the Eagles just have to "make it there" (meaning they'll have to beat the Packers here, then beat the Bears next week on the road)...

Can that happen? Sure! (if for no other reason than to bring CV's mid season premonition into existence)... You gotta know that sportswriters would be splooging themselves to get to cover that outcome...

But I'm hoping that will NOT occur...

Another interesting dynamic that has come into play is that the next round of playoffs is shaping up to be DIVISION rivalries...

- Yesterday, by the Jets winning, now it's AUTOMATIC that they go play the Patriots for ther 3rd time this year...

- If the Ravens win, they'll book a ticket to play arch rival Steelers next week

- & if the Packers win, they'll go play arch rival Bears next week

Is that how the dynamics are shaping up? I hope so!

I'd be happy to put this Vick chapter to a close... Not that I'm against him quietly moving forward and repairing his life.. I'm actually FOR that... But I HATE THE MEDIA SPOTLIGHT on it... I feel like I have to take a shower everytime I see some sportswriter piece on Michael Vick... Why? Because nobody is willing to risk "political incorrectness"... The first sportswriter that come out on the OTHER side (especially now that Obama is in on the gig), will be sure to be facing a press conference by Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton...

The Packers are a team that quietly emerged after a slew of decimating injuries this season... They may be one of the teams that is actually playing their best football coming in... I'd picked them PRESEASON to go to the Superbowl (and stood by that pick even when they were injured and losing games)... Only now are sportswriters starting to get on their bandwagon (which is the main thing that makes ne nervous about supporting them)...

But, you dance with who brought ya, right?

Technically... In this matchup vs. the Eagles (which is a rematch of Week 1 where the Packers beat the Eagles in Philly)... I think the Packers pass rush matches up very well against the eagles front line 9which sucks)... Vick has been able to extend plays with his feet, but it is apparent to me that he is wearing down... The Vikings were able to get to him numerous times (in an embarassing loss), and remember that the Packers know the Vikings schemes very well... Dom Capers, I'm sure studied that film a lot...

The only thing that would make me nervous about supporting the Packers here would be things that you can never control... What if Aaron Rodgers suffers another concussion... Matt Flynn did well vs. the Patriots, but that was when he was taking snaps all week... I just don't know...

Nevertheless, I'm backing thje PACKERS here no matter what... The "units" will be based on what happend in the earlier game... (Which are described in the previous write up)...

VIXSpinning top day (didn't confirm bullish piercing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Concluded that there might be no escaping the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.

GOLDSpinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Well below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) and again tested the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1378.80). Must have the precious.

EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3395). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.

JNKBearish long day (confirmed taker). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Back below SMA(21) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47). It was working on closing that huge gap BUT may have run out of steam…yup.

CRBDoji day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 332.80). Back below 23.6% retrace and weekly 3LB mid.

XLFBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.01).

XRTDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below SMA(21) and held SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.84). December gains are history. JBTFD...

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Imaginary Bond Report 1.7.11

Not too difficult today. It was risk-off all day after the usual NFP non-confirmation of ADP pantomime (look out, the recession is behind you!) so Treasuries and IG were bid and HY was sold across the curve.

We sold a chunk of TIP today, mainly to raise cash that we will put to work after the 10y/30y auctions. Ahead of that we are short the long end by 16% of our portfolio. We continue to hold 22% HYG, 3% LQD and now 10% TIP. So we are moderately hedged against rate risk for now. (In a strictly delusional kind of way, obviously...) Looking forward, we will plod along until we see outstanding opportunities to get into Treasuries if things continue to get exceptionally frothy in equities and high yield in the face of the recoveryless recovery.

So let me get this straight, Ritzy makes the supreme effort to bleat about this fancy new stable of Arabian horses, and the first line penned tells me...

- what stocks did yesterday
- how that compares to the weekly performance

(both of which I could have easily figured out on my own if I'd just have sat & watched "The View" or "Oprah" with a tape ticker passing by underneath, and passed the time adding or subtracting droplets of water into an Erlenmeyer flask to reflect an up or down tick)...

Actually - I like Jack McHugh (so it's nothing against him)... It's just this seemingly non-stop campaign for everything on the planet to wind up as a hyperbole ...

For fun, I actually decided to Google... "the most important in history"... Nothing scientific here, I just clicked on the first page that came up in the search for that one... It's a hoot (or "Hoot-Smalley" as Michelle Bachmann might call it)...

The signing of the Constitution was the most important event in history (according to this site)... Yeah - tell that to a Latvian Milk Farmer... Anyway, it becomes insufferable if you go in and read the things that were nominated (and more specifically - the explanations why)...

It's clear that whoever wrote that crap was getting paid by the job, not the thought, or man-hours... Here were some of my favorites...

#9 Death of Jesus - "Jesus was the founder of Christianity"... Yeah, he "founded" it... Sat down right there in a room and said "Hey guys - let's FOUND a religion"... We'll name it after... ME!... Yeah, that would be good, I like my name... It'll go DOWN IN HISTORY forevermore (the way that Mondays & Thursdays will never be the same again since the two recently anointed great prophets put their eternal stamp on those days)...

God created the world in 6 days... On the 7th day he rested saying "this day is reserved for ME"... (but nowadays 2 out of those other 6 have been weaseled away from the great God Almighty himself!)... Hallelujah! Can I get a witness?!?!

People will drink wine and eat little wafers in my honor... They'll pass along stale fruitcakes, and tie bows onto Lexuses in December... & they'll paint eggs and eat chocolate bunnies in the spring... Hey! I like this FOUNDING business..."

Anyway - go take a look at this page for kicks... At minimum, it'll relieve the nervous tension you have building up inside you while you're waiting for the MOST IMPORTANT NFP NUMBER IN HISTORY to be released... Here it is again... Observing "car wrecks" is very inspirational...

What could this kid possibly be talking about on the phone at a moment like this?

The Most Important Cab Ride from the Airport in the History of the World

The Most Important Souvenir Shop in the History of the World

"What? You mean to tell me you're out of the little "pissing King Tut" statues?

I had my heart set on one of those!"

Oh wait... Time Out!... Another "whopper of a revelation" yesterday from TWSW(redesigns his)B (which, by the way, was the Most Important blog re-design in the History of the World)... Anyway, says TWSW(RH)B"One last item: I am debating bringing on a researcher/intern. I am not sure about the position"...

Not sure??? (says CV)... Why not start by dialing up the intern responsible for:

The Most Important...Ummm... "Book Signing"... In the History of the World

The Most Important 80's Tune in the History of the World

The Most Important Teleprompter in the History of the World

I'm going to cut it off right here and go eat the Most Important Breakfast Feast in the History of the World!

Go make your own history today... Or don't!... I doubt anyone will really notice what you do unless you shove it right in their face and halfway down their throat...

VIXBullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Concluded that there might be no escaping the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

GOLDSpinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Well below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) and again tested the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1421.40). Must have the precious.

It is quite clear that the selected articles are juxtaposed against each other in order to provide contrast for the never ending "inflation-deflation" debate... What annoys me most of the time is that the argument oftentimes devolves too rapidly into one of semantics (prices, values, definitions, etc.)...

As always, CV is interested in "practical" matters... How things play out and actually impact your actual life... NOT how they look on some chart, graph, or ledger... I have a lot of direct expeience in that subject area having been involved in fitness all my life... I spend 99.9% of my "professional contact hours" with people, trying to get them to actually FEEL what they're doing (IOW - not how it's changing their body - but instead, how it's changing their thoughts - and more importantly, if that is having a positive effect on their life & outlook on things)... That's why I've never been a real fan of workout videos (even though I did some early on)... I quickly moved out of that business because I realized that they were one dimensional... It's a snake oil business... Hey - but I guess it's a "job", right?

I'm more interested in peoples "emotional" attachment to activity... Why? Because that's the thing that's going to live on (activism - the act of getting up and "doing things" - is transferrable)... That's the thing that's going to bring quality to life... It's the thing that's going to make you believe that you can replicate the process... Because you CAN... In the process, the things that don't bring quality to your life are going to eventually be discarded...

To jump rails for a moment here... In the case of Americans (and western society), a strong attachment to "consumerism" has evolved over the past century or more... What has fed that beast, have been breathtaking advances in:

The question remains, however... "Has everything you've accumulated over all this time really brought QUALITY to your life"?... It's probably hard to argue that it hasn't brought CONVENIENCE, but has it brought QUALITY?

That's at the center of the INFLATION-DEFLATION debate to this author... Technically - here is a sampling of things I see going forward... We are on a path that there will continue to be INFLATION in things we want and need & DEFLATION in things that we don't require, or, have adequate substitutes...

ON THE INFLATION SIDE

- Food is already inflating... If you don't see it "price wise", it's because they've managed to stuff inferior products into smaller boxes... Most Americans hardly notice, because they've been conditioned to eat dogfood for many years now... It will cost you quite dearly to eat well in the future...

- Safety will continue to inflate... Safety in everything (wealth preservation [whatever the FLAV of the day is in that], home security, procurement, etc.)...

- Entertainment... I'm not talking about the devices you watch to be entertained... I'm talking about the "artists" themselves... The athletes, celebrities, politicians, actors, etc... Remember, the term "INFLATION" has less to do with "prices", but rather the idea that these are high value targets, and will do better than the mean...

- Accomodations... Home heating & air conditioning... The cost of electricity to power the devices you deem convenient... Most have only experienced the "build up" process in obtaining these things... There is an incredible amount of WASTE (which is money lost forever), in abusing these things... As electricity bills go higher and higher, certain people will have to begin to make choices... And with that will come lifestyle changes... I'm actually waiting for the day that people actually begin to roll-over their attitudes about hand held device usage...

- There are many other things, but that was just a starter sample

ON THE DEFLATION SIDE

- Jobs... Jobs are the ultimate deflation... The joblessness numbers say little else than "your services are not required", "I can manage just fine without you"... Now, if you would agree to work for free, or basically work for peanuts, then things might change... But until then, you'd better hope that your services are so unique that they cannot be replaced... Otherwise, you're living in a delusional state...

- Entitlements... These will deflate on account of dilution... We've already passed the psychological point that we realize that the promises made can & will not be honored... Since most were not prepared for that... a small bone will be tossed to lessen the blow... ANYBODY, though, who can sit back and try to make a seemingly "intellectual" argument such as... "Well look - SOCIALISM works in Denmark (we just need to do it better)", or, "Look at the Chinese... They would have NEVER made it this far if it had not been for all that wonderful central planning"... ANYBODY making, or agreeing with those statements is a TOTAL RETARD...

Again... Though... It's largely a SEMANTIC argument... Why? Because SOCIALISM can and DOES work... How do I know that?... Just look at a basic "family unit"... Nobody really works for pay... Let's say you have a mother & a father and a few kids... (I suppose you could toss gay couples into that mix as well - but to my knowledge, the "traditional" way of procreation is by way of sexual intercourse)... Maybe I'm behind on my science regarding those matters... In any case, a FAMILY, working together as a unit, & a team has brought civilization forward for a long time (& in the process, weathered many catastrophes)...

But that's not to say that ALL families work... In some cases, the figurehead of the family might be some bitchy old hag mother (who has totalitarian instincts)... Who is motivated by selfish control rather than the actual functioning of the family... That type will eventually succeed only to break apart a family (causing it to cease to function)...

In the case of FUNCTIONING families...

You can expand that definition to small "collections" of families (co-ops, Amish, even Mormon groups, are probably the best "root" examples of this)... That's SOCIALISM, by definition (and it works like a charm)... Ironically then, it is a cooperative effort of INDIVIDUALISTIC LIBERTARIANS, working for a common purpose, that provides the best chance of success for a SOCIALISTIC construct... It works because the individuals have a fierce devotion to the process... As such, in practice, it's NOT something that can be duplicated by some AD HOC governmental formation or legislation... Anyone who thinks it can is probably a retard... A horse is a free animal... Over many centuries and millenia, the horse has forged a relationship with man... But a wild horse WILL NOT automatically submit to a bridle... It's not in their DNA...

Personally, I would not want to enter a battle for survival with one of these types who had such a dearth of understanding of the practicality of the situation... I'd rather take my chances on my own, with my own sword in hand, than carry this person, who was chained to my foot and tossing flower petals here and there, while I'm trying to battle the enemy...

- Non-Essentiality... Of course, nominating this seems obvious and redundant... But the reason I mention it anyway is because a lot of the things that will eventually fall into this category have yet to be defined... They WILL be defined based on what's "left over" after procurement of the ESSENTIAL things...

Americans have still not been faced with large scale "non-essentiality" yet... "What do I mean?" You ask... Well - put it this way... Despite more than a decade of a campaign on "global warming" (which is something that you may or may not wish to attribute to fossil fuels), people have barely made a dent in consumption along those lines... The Department of Energy was established in 1977 to wean us off foreign oil, yet we import more than ever now and continue to fight imperialistic wars in order to assure an adequate (relatively cheap) supply...

Only PRICE & AVAILABILITY will ever change behavior on this because we have failed numerous times to make choices on our own... So getting back to "non-essentiality"... My guess is that we'll begin to see what those things are, as we start to give up our cars... That may still be a ways off... But it will happen...

---

I could go on for days on this subject... But it's a subject that's worth prying into from time to time because it's a fundamental aspect of survival... And this is SURVIVOR CAPITAL, after all...

And remember, "surviving" isn't the only aspect of living... "Living" is what living is all about... Otherwise we're all just zombies or vampires...

---

GERRY RAFFERTY (1947-2011) - R.I.P.

MisterBlue55 says:

"I originally posted this video last year and it received a couple of hundred hits. Youtube then saw﻿ fit to take my account down. However, I recently started up again and, as providence would have it, I reposted this video two days before this tragic event - and pow! 20,730 hits in three days! I think the moral of the story here is we don't appreciate talented people like Gerry until they are taken from us..."

CV concurs... We don't appreciate things until they are taken from us...

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: The fake ADP didn't work as well as I hoped.

SPXBullish long day (confirmed bearish thrusting). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1258.84). QE2infinity. MSM tried to talk market down after ADP but failed (or was that their intention?).

DXYBullish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Heading for the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.83).

VIXBearish long day (denied inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Concluded that there might be no escaping the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.

GOLDSpinning top day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Now below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) and tested the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1422.90). Must have the precious.

EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121 (barely). Back below SMA(21) and SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3001).

CRBBullish long day (ruh roh it formed a bullish thrusting). Midpoint below EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 333.02). Back below trendline of current move.

XLFBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.01).

We thought we would add a little colour to the report today. So instead of the usual jargon like THE COMPRESSOR and THE STEEPENER, we would simply describe the day for each ETF. In a nutshell, it was RISK ON across the curve, and Timmay's offerings were spurned for more seductive higher yielding paper.

TLT - taken to the woodshed, given a sound spanking, no dinner.IEI - spanked and sent to bed, not allowed to watch Cramer.LQD - had to shovel Bruce's driveway. It is half a mile long.AGG - made to sit in the corner all day facing the wall.TIP - ignored all afternoon and given Brussels sprouts to eat.

On the plus side:HYG - well behaved all day and rewarded with candy at 3.45JNK - put in a good day and enjoys a 6-pack of Natty Boh

and on the short side:TBT - was fed grapes and wine by Karen wearing flimsy lingerie

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."