Top 100 Prospects: AL Hitters
published December 25, 2004
by David Luciani

I've published top prospect lists every year and this year will be no
exception as we start a four part series covering the best of the prospects in
both leagues, separated into hitters and pitchers. As we begin this
series, I'll try not to repeat everything I've said in previous years but I do
need to give the reader a bit of background, especially new readers who haven't
seen one of my top prospect lists before.

The prospect lists are ranked in order of where I think the player is,
relative to other players, in terms of the overall big league career he's
projected to have. It doesn't mean that his best season will be better
than an inferior prospect's best season. It means that in terms of
longevity and the long run, I believe that the higher prospect is more likely to
have a "better" career than the lower-ranked prospect, even though
admittedly the idea of a better career can be arbitrary at best and certainly
open to debate, even if we had perfect ability to see into the future, which we
obviously don't.

The most common feedback/question I get every time I publish one of these
lists is "Where the heck is Player X?" or "How can you rank
so-and-so ahead of this other guy?" I'll give you my response in
advance to save both of us time: If a player is missing, it's possible
they weren't eligible for the list and I'll lay out the criteria below.
For example, Joe Mauer doesn't qualify for these lists anymore because of the at
bat rule, which is listed below. If a player qualifies, then what you're
getting is my assessment of the long term and it's based on lengthy studies of
thresholds and performances at different ages that seem to project eventual
success in the majors. We've had many contentious names appearing among
the top few here before (such as Jason Kubel a few years ago showing up in the
top five when no one else had him in their top 100 or Dontrelle Willis making
our top ten when he was still pitching at Single-A) and though we know our
methods will miss someone, this is the way we really see the future. It
doesn't do much good to send me a note arguing that your favorite prospect
should be ranked higher and then send me the reasons because I have access to
the same data and this is the way the list comes out. If you think a
prospect is better than I've ranked him or if your favorite fails to make the
list, then by all means put him at or near the top of your own list. As I
often say, everything we do here should supplement your knowledge - there is no
replacement for your own thinking.

In fact, I've written a lengthy answer to the question of why a top prospect
may be ranked lower than you'd expect or be missing completely. If you'd
like to see my answer, check out The
Best of Ask David: Volume 1 and then advance to the question about Jesse
Foppert and Gavin Floyd. There, you'll get my complete answer about why
sometimes a so-called top prospect misses the cut on my lists.

One other point of clarification is needed. Just because a player seems
to "drop" on this list compared to a year ago doesn't mean I think
less of him than I did last year. Sometimes, a player can be exactly the
same in my mind, in terms of his long term ability, but other players have moved
ahead of him or emerged from nowhere to take new, higher places on the
rankings. Certainly an injury or a subpar year in the minors can cause me
to think less of a player's long-term potential, even though I'm looking at much
more than just how the player performed in 2004. No doubt, a terrible year
can make me re-think a player's status as a top prospect, such as what happened
with Jeff Mathis this past season and whose performance in 2004 dropped him from
#37 a year ago to off the top 100 this year. Of course, the list should be
dynamic as players in their late teens and early twenties are constantly
acquiring new skills that even with the best of analysis, I couldn't see and
others are not developing the way they should or as quickly as expected.
In fact, I've considered that an annual list isn't enough to keep up with the
changing direction of the minors and I may have to start publishing two or more
lists like this each year.

Just in terms of the criteria to even qualify for these lists:

A player must have at least 50 "translated" innings (using our
minor league translation methods) or 200 "translated" at bats in
2004 at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A combined. It is allowed for a
player to have played in the majors in 2004, even substantially, but his
eligibility for this list must still be met by meeting this criteria in the
minors. Remember, that means that many or most draft picks form late
2004 will not qualify for the list as they haven't played enough in the
minors for us to get a good sense of their skill.

A player will have to be younger than 26 years old on July 1st, 2005 to
show up on these lists, without exception.

Because these lists are compiled over many months, a player will be listed
with whatever organization he finished the 2004 season playing with, even if
he's changed organizations since, though we try to highlight players who moved,
where applicable.

Without further ado, let's start with the AL Hitters. It's been
quite a few years since I separated AL and NL prospects but this seems to be a
better method and this year, I'm going to list double the number of prospects
than in past years, giving 400 over this four part series, up from the 200 of a
year ago. As this first part in the series was scheduled to go up on the
site on Christmas Day, I extend my best wishes to all of you during this holiday
season!

TOP 100 AL HITTING PROSPECTS

1. DELMON YOUNG, OF, TAMPA BAY: He's actually ready for
the majors now but the Devil Rays have openly said that he's not going to start
2005 in the big leagues, especially since he's so young (19) and inexperienced,
having spent last year playing for Single-A Charleston-SC. His translation
was for a .264 hitter with 23 home runs, 9 steals and 58 RBI, so it doesn't look
as exciting as the raw numbers that saw him top 100 RBI and 20 steals but he
projects as an eventual .300 big league hitter with 35-40 home run power, an
ability to walk 75 times in a season combined with 10-15 stolen base
ability. I believe we'll see Young in the majors by the end of this season
and you should expect immediate success when he arrives, though not performance
in this territory just yet.

2. CASEY KOTCHMAN, 1B, ANAHEIM: Like Young, Kotchman is
ready for the majors now, though I don't think he's going to be a big time power
hitter. I'm putting him #2 this year because he projects like an eventual
perennial batting title contender who should have a long and productive career
with big-time gap ability (think 50 doubles a season). His projected
eventual prime looks like Wade Boggs.

3. BRANDON MOSS, OF, BOSTON: A former second baseman, Moss
exploded in 2004 to hit .339 with 13 home runs and 101 RBI at Single-A Augusta
and then followed it up by dominating at the more competitive Single-A Sarasota,
hitting .422 with 2 home runs over just 83 at bats at that level. Unlike
Young and Kotchman, it's unlikely that Moss will appear in the majors this
season but like Kotchman, he projects as an eventual annual batting title
contender with better home run power but fewer doubles. His individual
seasons may not be as exciting as some prospects ranked lower than him but his
overall career will be superior.

4. JASON KUBEL, OF, MINNESOTA: Once again Kubel makes our
lists and unlike when we listed him in the top five overall in baseball a few
years ago, now he's on everyone's radar. Unfortunately, he suffered a
serious injury in the Arizona Fall League this off-season and he's expected to
miss all of the 2005 season, which pushes back his arrival as a full-timer to at
least 2006. Up until the injury, he was the favorite to be the right
fielder for Minnesota next year. He looks to me to be a hitter who will
one day consistently hit better than .300 with 20 home runs, 10 steals and 55-60
walks, over a full season.

5. IAN KINSLER, SS, TEXAS: The highest-ranked shortstop
that I'm going to list on either the AL or NL lists, I'm not sure where he's
going to play by the time he reaches the majors because the Texas infield is
blocked right now. He destroyed Single-A pitching last year, hitting .402
over 224 at bats before moving up to the more competitive Double-A level, where
he still hit .299 over 70 games. Even his translated average was .290
which is rare for such a young and inexperienced player and while you're
unlikely to see him in the majors before even late 2006, he projects as an
eventual .290s type with 20 home run power and 40 double ability, which should
get him plenty of RBI opportunities. He looks to me to be an eventual #3
hitter in the majors.

6. B.J. UPTON, SS, TAMPA BAY: If we're to believe the
reports, he may not be a shortstop for long as there's been talk that Upton
could end up at third base in 2005, though there's also discussion that he could
go back to the minors for more experience. I suspect that a Devil Rays
team as thin as this one won't be too patient with him and while I'm not
projecting huge things in 2005, except maybe for his speed (he's a good bet to
steal at least 15-20 bases even if he only plays 90 games in the majors), I look
down the road at a player who should be a .290-20-20 type who will be able to
take 85-90 walks in a season. Compare that to the rest of the league at
this position and you have a top prospect.

7. WES BANKSTON, 1B, TAMPA BAY: He had off-season surgery
on his wrist this winter so whether that will impact his long-term performance
remains unclear. He hit .289 with 23 home runs and 101 RBI for Single-A
Charleston-SC in 2004 and while I expect he's actually going to be a notch below
the top power hitters by the time he develops, he's going to be a quietly
productive 30 home run type big league first baseman for many years.

8. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B, MINNESOTA: I'm not sure there's
much more that can be said about him that hasn't been already, especially
because we got to see him so much last season. He's got the job at first
base going into 2005 and while he shouldn't be expected to immediately have the
best seasons of his career, I expect he's going to show immediate power and
while not winning a batting title typically, hit for a respectable average.

9. JOSE LOPEZ, SS, SEATTLE: He's got the job heading into
this season and I believe one day, several years from now, he's going to be a
consistent 25 home run hitter per season, in his best years.

10. RYAN GARKO, C, CLEVELAND: There are maybe three
catching prospects in the National League I would rank ahead of him and he's the
best in the AL as of the end of 2004. Like Ian Kinsler with Texas, Garko
plays a position that looks to be filled in the majors so I'm not sure whether
Cleveland will move him or bring him along slowly. I'm not expecting him
to be a .300 hitter but an average in the .270s with 20-25 home run power by the
time he's in his prime are both reasonable.

The best of the rest...

11. MICHAEL AUBREY, 1B, CLEVELAND:

12. HOWIE KENDRICK, 2B, ANAHEIM: The best second base
prospect I'm ranking in either league, Kendrick had a dynamite season for
Single-A Cedar Rapids in 2004, hitting .367 with 10 home runs and 15 steals in
just 75 games. While I'm not projecting the entire average to translate to
the majors, he is going to be a big-time batting average hitter but just as
importantly, I believe he's going to develop 20-25 home run power mixed with
35-40 doubles ability and an ability to add 10-15 stolen bases for good measure,
which would make him quite a prospect. My only criticism of him is that I
expect him to be an aggressive hitter who will rarely take walks, even once he's
gained experience.

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