Scarbinsky: All's not lost if Auburn loses Iron Bowl

Tell Boise State this is what a hostile environment looks like. (The Birmingham News / Mark Almond)

Black Friday is the biggest shopping day of the year, and a lot of college football's talking heads are selling like mad men in anticipation.

They're selling Auburn losing to Alabama and kissing its BCS title hopes good-bye. They're selling Boise State beating Nevada later Friday night and jumping into the second spot in the BCS standings behind Oregon. They're selling Boise State at Nevada as the equivalent of Auburn at Alabama.

Pete Thamel of The New York Times actually described Nevada's Mackay Stadium as "a notoriously hostile place to play."

That's 29,993-seat Mackay Stadium. That's not hostile. That's cute.

This propaganda campaign on Boise's behalf isn't. So I'm not buying it. I'm not buying any of it, not even at half-price at midnight Thursday as a door-buster special, and neither should any of the civilians and coaches who vote in the polls that matter.

For Auburn's sake, it's a good thing computers can't read. Otherwise, they would've digested this nugget from ESPN.com's Ivan Maisel: "Based on 10 games, any championship game without Boise State wouldn't be a championship game at all."

Good thing the final verdict will be based on 12 or 13 games.

Consider. In its last two games, Boise will play at BCS No. 19 Nevada and at home against 4-7 Utah State. In its last two games, Auburn will play at BCS No. 11 Alabama and vs. BCS No. 18 South Carolina on a neutral field in the SEC Championship.

That's not apples and oranges. It's cupcakes and anvils.

Strength of schedule doesn't seem to matter to Frank Burlison of the Long Beach Press-Telegram. He wrote that, if Auburn loses to Alabama, "it almost assuredly means" Boise State will take Auburn's place in the BCS Championship Game.

Really? Last I checked, Auburn was No. 1 in the BCS computer average, and Boise was No. 5. Behind LSU. Which has only one loss. At Auburn.

Brett McMurphy of FanHouse.com has joined the growing legion of doomsayers painting the Iron Bowl as all-or-nothing for the Tigers. He wrote that "a loss would likely end their BCS title hopes."

One question: Why?

Say Auburn loses a close game in Tuscaloosa, then bounces back to handle South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game. The Tigers would be 12-1. They would've played six of their 13 games against teams that, right now, are ranked in the BCS top 25, and they would've won five of those games.

Boise State would be only 12-0 because the WAC doesn't have a championship game. Advantage, Auburn.

The Broncos would've played only two of their 12 games against teams that, at this moment, are ranked in the BCS top 25. Advantage, Auburn.

You can make a case that, on any given Friday, Saturday or Sunday, Boise State can beat anyone in the country, but you should make your case based on who they played as well as how they played.

In that case, there's no comparison. One-loss Auburn - if that loss were a close one at Alabama - still would have a stronger resume than undefeated Boise or undefeated TCU.

But the Tigers can't count on common sense to save them if they can't save the day in the Iron Bowl. They can't count on the precedent of four SEC teams since 2003 reaching the BCS Championship Game with at least one loss.

They can't count on anyone or anything but themselves when they walk inside the most difficult environment any of the title contenders will have faced all year.

About that. If Nevada's Mackay Stadium is notoriously hostile, what does that make Bryant-Denny? The beaches at Normandy?

Sorry for losing perspective. There's a lot of that going around these days.