Friday, 27 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from ElectionsETC

1

No change in our polling average this week: it’s still Lab 33%, Con 32%, as it has been since the start of 2015.
Our model therefore still makes the Tories favourites to win the most
votes (with a 67% chance), but Labour very slight favourites to win the
most seats (with a 52% chance). Neither party is likely to win a
majority, though: we give the Tories an 8% chance and Labour a 6% one,
leaving an 87% chance of a hung parliament (up a touch from 86% last week).
So, if parliament does end up hung, who will govern? We’ve given that
question more thought, listened to your input and others’, and changed
our assumptions as to which alliances are most likely – as you can see
from the graphic above.
We now assume that whichever party has the most MPs will do a deal
with the DUP, if that’d yield a majority (either in coalition, or a
confidence-and-supply agreement). If it wouldn’t, we then ask whether an
alliance with the Lib Dems would, or failing that a three-party deal
with both the Lib Dems and the DUP.
If Labour are the largest party but the Lib Dems and DUP aren’t
enough to give them a majority, we then assume they’d call on the
smaller left-wing parties (the SDLP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens), as
well as Lady Hermon if necessary.
That leaves the SNP. What if neither party can get to 323 MPs without them? (Our model gives a 16.5% chance of this.)
First, there’s a 3.5% chance that Labour have the most seats and a
Lab-SNP alliance would yield a majority (without the others). Under
these circumstances, Ed Miliband might well be able to cut a deal with
Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond that would put him into Number 10.
But there’s also a 13% chance the Tories are the largest party, but
can’t reach a majority without the SNP. In that scenario, the SNP would
essentially have three options (having ruled out
actively supporting a Tory-led government): abstain, allowing a Tory PM
to win a confidence motion; back a Labour-led left-wing government; or
refuse either deal. If the SNP choose the third option, neither Cameron
nor Miliband (nor their successors, if they step down) would be able to
win a confidence vote, forcing another election. (Of course, it may not
really be the SNP’s choice. The other parties might be too
uncompromising to enable the SNP to even abstain in confidence votes.)
We therefore call this the “SNP kingmakers or wreckers” scenario.

Acknowledgements: We particularly would like to
thank Richard Coggins, Philip Cowley, John CIain McLean, Petra Schleiter
and Jon Tonge for their comments and advice on these assumptions and
issues. We were able to incorporate some but not all of their
suggestions. Defects are our responsibility.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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