Markets: Tea Leaves and Wave Counts

Usually, we expect something of a bounce into option expiration, but there are so many forces running contrariwise in this market that it’s worth looking at a list of factors rather than zooming in on one thing or another as a sole cause:

The US Velocity of Money calculations refuse to budge significantly off historical lows.

And if this isn’t enough for you, the latest producer print index numbers are just out:

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.2 percent in November and advanced 0.2 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 1.1 percent in 2014 after rising 1.2 percent in 2013. (See table A.)

In December, the 0.3-percent decline in the final demand index can be traced to a 1.2-percent drop in prices

Not all the news was bad, though. The NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey is just out:

“The January 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index climbed eleven points to 10.0. This month’s survey also showed modest growth in new orders and shipments. Labor market conditions were mixed, with the index for number of employees rising several points to 13.7, while the average workweek index remained negative at -8.4.”

That seems to be all it takes to light off a little buzz on the Street. Oil is up almost 5% and back over $51 on the futures while the Dow is aiming 50 higher.

I must be an old reprobate (is there any other kind?) I don’t understand how the administration can administratively wipe out our border with Mexico and then turn around and hold Russia ever more encircled by NATO. Don’tcha think it would be nice to have the same border concerns for the 700 miles of still-open border in places like Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona that we have for Ukraine? Oh wait, silly me.

Thursday grumpies, I suppose. Telling Bulgaria how to behave is just a bit…oh…rich.

Where’s the DeadHead

3 Comments

kate on January 16, 2015 at 13:33

“Russia Sanctions Work – Or Do They?” I’ve heard from someone in the ‘know’ that Russia/US/Europe are really playing on the same team. So George look at the big picture and see that it’s just a game with us being the pawns.

With multiculturalism being forced upon us Europeans(aka white), looks like we again are the stooge. Staged race wars, open borders, I’m afraid of what the next play will be.

Contentious House – means nothing – even though they “hold the purse strings” – they must use them to be successful at listening and DOING what the people expect. Dictators seldom pay any attention to the legislators.

What – not talk of the French (or the rest of EU or even the US who have opened their borders to very possible Islamic insurgents – who, here, just be ready to put their 2¢ into the fire of a race war)?

The only thing that will ever close the “southern border” bullets – some would call it a WAR with Mexico – again – cept this time – we’d probably lose – cause the US doesn’t know how to fight to win – anything.

Kimberly on January 15, 2015 at 09:03

Just a general note. I am reading more frequent news stories about the things you talk about. More and more, people are catching up to ideas you have been speaking for years; deflation, robotic job jacking, life expectancy and SS. I appreciate the seeds you plant in my thoughts, even if I’m not always sure what they will grow into. Kimberly in MI