The GOP primary is now a total 'free-for-all' — and Republicans are getting nervous

Donald
Trump during an interview with Business
Insider.Sam Rega/Business
Insider

Donald Trump looked up from his desk and, at the end of a
45-minute interview, sounded as if he had talked himself into it.

"I'm going to win, I think," he told Business Insider.

Five months after Trump officially entered the presidential race,
that possibility is beginning to set in for a wide swath of the
Republican establishment — and the political-pundit class — that
long assumed Trump would fade from front-running status.

In fact, Trump remains on top, and the only one seriously
challenging his dominating standing in the polls is another
so-called outsider candidate: retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

After seven months of campaigning and four debates, the
Republican presidential primary is a virtual "free-for-all,"
party strategists and political analysts say. Trump and Carson
have climbed to the top. The original establishment front-runner,
former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, has faded. Upstart Sens. Ted
Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida have risen, but it's
unclear whether they can rally enough support from the party's
different wings.

Overall, there's a prevailing sense that numerous candidates in
the robust 15-candidate field could capture the nomination.

"We're definitely going to have a free-for-all over the next few
weeks," said Erick Erickson, a prominent conservative radio host
who is editor-in-chief of the blog RedState.

"That seems about right to me," said Liz Mair, a political
strategist and former aide to the short-lived campaign of Gov.
Scott Walker of Wisconsin, when asked about the free-for-all
sense.

The fourth GOP presidential debate, run last
Tuesday by Fox Business Network and The Wall Street Journal, did
little to change that underlying dynamic. The consensus held that
Cruz and Rubio continued to solidify their rising positions, that
Trump and Carson did little to alter their current status, and
that Bush staved off some of the bleeding from a haphazard debate
performance two weeks earlier.

Meanwhile, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina delivered
strong moments that resonated with conservative viewers. Sen.
Rand Paul of Kentucky finally broke through with a pointed
critique of Trump, and his campaign told Business Insider that
fund-raising had "picked up" over the past few days.

And Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who failed to even make
the main stage on Tuesday night, has seemingly gained momentum
over the past couple of weeks, fueled by a steady performance at
the lower-tier debate Tuesday.

"There are a lot of bends in the river to go," argued Chip
Englander, Paul's campaign manager.

"Voters are just beginning to tune in," he added, "and
Senator Paul wins them over when they learn about his 14.5% flat
tax and that he's the only candidate with a plan to balance the
budget by eliminating hundreds of billions of dollars and
abolishing cabinet departments."

Trump and Ben
Carson.AP Photo/Morry
Gash

The race is unsettled enough, however, that a significant bunch
of the Republican establishment is beginning to worry about the
possibility of Trump or Carson grabbing the nomination.

The success of the pair thus far has flummoxed and flustered
fellow GOP rivals, who have openly question how a
reality-television star has foiled years, and sometimes decades,
of their preparations for the nation's top job.

"On our side, you got the number-two guy — tried to kill somebody
at 14," Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said recently, referring to a story from
Carson's memoir, "Gifted Hands," that recounted a youthful
violent streak. "And the number-one guy is high energy and crazy
as hell. How am I losing to these people?"

And despite Rubio's rise, there has been no consensus
establishment alternative to come into view. Bush, with his
allied super PAC, still has the most resources of anyone in the
field — but he has been unable to latch on as a candidate.

It has gotten to a point at which The Washington Post reported on Thursday
that, again, supporters of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney had begun
plotting a strategy for a late entry into the race. For his part,
Romney has continually insisted that he will not jump into the
field after mulling a third run earlier this year.

"It doesn't surprise me," one veteran GOP strategist told
Business Insider when asked about the Romney speculation.
"Everything is still very unsettled."

"The Romney boomlet is awesome," Erickson, the conservative radio
host, added. "Cruz can really capitalize on this, and it reads
like a damning indictment of Rubio. Rubio is the guy the Romney
people should love."

Ted Cruz, left, and Marco
Rubio.REUTERS/James Lawler
Duggan

In fact, a materializing sense of harmony is starting to form
about the eventualities of the race: Rubio and Cruz are looking
increasingly likely to be the last two men standing in the
crowded field — at least according to those who doubt the
long-term viability of Trump and Carson. Both Rubio and Carson
have shone in each of the four debates, rising steadily in
national and early-state polls.

And each of the two candidates appears to be increasingly aware
of the threat posed by the other. A simmering feud on immigration
this week burst out into the open, with each candidate sniping at
the other's respective position on the issue. The pair's advisers engaged in a furious air war over
Twitter — and in reporters' inboxes — to press their cases.

"We're watching the emergence of two genuine stars, Rubio and
Cruz, in a political process that rewards fresh faces," said Greg
Valliere, the chief global strategist at Horizon Investments.
"The focus increasingly will shift to issues, a potential mine
field for front-runners Carson and Trump."

But judging from Trump's and Carson's post-debate activity, you
wouldn't know it.

They have been engaged in an increasingly nasty feud, with
Trump trying furiously to knock Carson down while Carson has
continued to face questions about stories from his personal
background. On Thursday night, Trump used an approximately
95-minute speech to tear into Carson in every way imaginable,
comparing his "pathological" temper to the supposedly "incurable"
behavior of child molesters.

Trump's outburst Thursday night caused some in the party, again,
to predict the end.

Then again, even as Graham predicted Trump's demise, he
acknowledged this: "I've said that before."