Daniel Kaluuya from “Get Out” is a legitimate Oscar contender. Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis are not as invincible as we think. And the Oscar winner for Best Picture will be “The Big Sick,” “Lady Bird,” “Get Out,” “Mudbound” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Those are among the conclusions that you could reach based on Wednesday morning’s Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, which dealt a blow to a few presumed frontrunners and just might have put a handful of smaller films in the driver’s seat at the Oscars.

Remember, last year at this time lots of pundits (including this one) dismissed the warning sign that Oscar favorite “La La Land” had failed to secure a SAG nomination in the Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture category. Even though no film had won Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination since “Braveheart” in 1995, we were sure that this would be the second exception in the category’s 22-year history.

But it wasn’t: “Moonlight,” which did have an ensemble nod, scored a big Oscar upset instead.

So if the SAG ensemble category is as reliable a precursor as the statistics suggest, that should make Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird,” Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” and Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” the three films most likely to win Best Picture, and it should put Steven Spielberg’s “The Post,” Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” and Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” in tough positions.

The two other SAG ensemble nominees, “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound,” are less likely to truly contend for the top Oscar – at least one of them is likely to wind up alongside “Captain Fantastic,” “Straight Outta Compton,” “The Butler” and “Bridesmaids” among the recent films that have received SAG ensemble nods, but missed out on Oscar Best Picture nominations. (Most years, there’s at least one of those.)

In the individual film categories, meanwhile, the 2,000-plus randomly chosen members of the SAG nominating committee bypassed some truly formidable names, with “The Post” stars Hanks and Streep and “Phantom Thread” star Day-Lewis failing to land the lead-actor nods that had seemed all but inevitable. (Nom-com members did receive the all-important screeners to both of those films, though their late arrival on the scene no doubt hurt.)

The SAG snub is unlikely to be repeated at the Oscars, though Hanks was bypassed by both SAG and then the Oscars in 2013 when he was a presumed lock for “Saving Mr. Banks.” So he probably has more to worry about than Streep, who has more SAG film nominations than anybody else, or Day-Lewis, who holds the record for the most Best Actor Oscar wins.

The lead actor and actress nominations gave a significant boost to Kaluuya (“Get Out”), James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”) and Judi Dench (“Victoria & Abdul”), all of whom now enter the Oscar race with noms from both SAG and the Golden Globes.

They were less kind to Jake Gyllenhaal and Jessica Chastain, who could have used a SAG boost to their candidacies for “Stronger” and “Molly’s Game,” respectively.

In the supporting categories, the big surprises were two comic performances, Hong Chau in “Downsizing” and Steve Carell in “Battle of the Sexes,” whose nominations came at the expense of Octavia Spencer in “The Shape of Water,” Melissa Leo in “Novitiate,” Ben Mendelsohn in “Darkest Hour” and particularly Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg in “Call Me by Your Name.”

SAG voters had seemed likely to choose at least one of the actors from that rapturous, critically acclaimed coming-of-age story – but instead, they opted to honor only the film’s lead, Timothee Chalamet, and to give supporting nods to a pair of “Three Billboards” stars, Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson.

Mind you, this doesn’t deal a death blow to anybody’s chances. While slightly more than 75 percent of SAG acting nominees in the movie categories typically go on to receive Oscar nominations, it’s rare for an Oscar acting category to match up completely with the equivalent SAG category. A five-for-five match has only happened 11 times in the last 10 years in the four acting categories, and only four perfect matches have happened in the last five years.

The odds are that every SAG Award category contains one actor or actress who will not repeat when Oscar nominations are announced on January 23.

That ensemble category, though, has to come as disquieting news for “The Post,” “The Shape of Water” and “Dunkirk.” Yes, you can win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination – but as “La La Land” learned last year, it’s a lot harder than it looks.

The 2018 Golden Glob nominations were announced on Monday and among the many shoo-ins and usual suspects were some serious upsets and players that came out of left field. Here are the biggest snubs and surprises this season.

“The Big Sick” -- Snub

Kumail Nanjiani and and Emily V. Gordon's’s warm-hearted yet heartbreaking film was completely snubbed in this year’s nominations, although it had the potential to be nominated in several categories. The film stole critics’ and fans’ hearts, but maybe the summer release wasn't fresh in voters' minds?

Much ink has been spilled over this sumptuous Italian gay romance from Sony Pictures Classics. Some people say Best Supporting Actor Globes nominee Armie Hammer is too old for Best Actor nominee Timothee Chalamet. Some say the film is not gay enough, or the parents are too supportive. But pretty much everyone agrees Guadagnino delivered a dazzling and transcendent love story. If only there were Golden Globe nominations for dancing gifs.

Denzel Washington, "Roman J. Israel, Esq." -- Surprise

Proving yet again how much the Globes care about star power, Washington was nominated for his performance in “Roman J. Israel, Esq,” despite mixed reviews for the film. Maybe this is the start of something.

Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird" -- Snub

While Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird” snagged nominations in the Best Screenplay, Best Actress and Best Picture categories, the director herself was shut out. In fact, not a single woman was nominated in the director category. Do Golden Globes voters think "Lady Bird" directed itself?

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" -- Surprise

This Amazon original series from Amy Sherman-Palladino has definitely been a treat for fans and critics hoping to see something new and different from the "Gilmore Girls" showrunner. But being ranked among “Black-ish,” ” “Master of None,” “SMILF” and the returned “Will & Grace" for top TV comedy/musical is a pretty big shock for a brand-new series.

"SMILF" -- Surprise

Speaking of new shows: this freshman comedy snuck up on voters thanks to the charm of Frankie Shaw as a Boston single mom.

"Veep" -- Snub

Where the heck was "Veep"? The Globes treated the awards-show darling like a second-in-command.

“Get Out” -- Snub

It received two nominations for Best Actor and Best Picture — Comedy or Musical, but nothing for Jordan Peele's directing or screenplay.

Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver” -- Surprise

Despite big box-office success and unexpected summer magic, no one thought Edgar Wright’s heist film had the gas to make it to awards season — even the iPod wearing, street-dancing, mostly mute titular character played by Ansel Elgort. But he may be singing a winners tune in January.

"The Leisure Seeker"/Helen Mirren -- Surprise

HUH?

“Call Me by Your Name” -- Snub

Once again, “Call Me by Your Name” was a sure bet for a Best Screenplay Nomination along with “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards,” but “The Post” and “Molly’s Game” slid in instead. The screenplay has received acclaim since it premiered at the 2017 Sundance Film Festival and has enchanted people all over the world, which is why it’s such a surprise that it received no nomination.

Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why” -- Surprise

This endearing and occasionally controversial series about teen suicide has an incredibly strong ensemble (don’t get us started on Michele Selene Ang as the Type A Courtney Crimsen), but it’s mostly a showcase for its terribly troubled protagonist Clay, played by Dylan Minnette. Imagine our pleasant surprise, then, to see Katherine Langford — the show’s posthumous narrator and subsequent suicide victim — get recognized for her strong seres guidance and flashback work.

Tiffany Haddish, "Girls Trip" -- Snub

Who isn’t rooting for this magical underdog? Haddish slayed her “SNL” turn and won over the New York Film Critics to take their best supporting actress prize for “Girls Trip.” It’s disappointing not to see her run-up to Academy Award nominations extended, but we always have Oscars and SAG.

Carrie Coon, “The Leftovers” -- Snub

Damon Lindelof and Tom Perrota’s beautiful three-season meditation on life, purgatory and abandonment was criminally underrated during its run, so snubbing Coon doesn’t exactly surprise us. But the work she did in the final season, particularly the final episode, felt like a deserved reckoning to her talents. Clearly not. This is one she’ll have to win in the hereafter.

Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World” -- Surprise

Not many have seen the film, which booted Kevin Spacey and replaced Christopher Plummer — but director Ridley Scott still promised to finish it in time for its Christmas release. It’s not too surprising Michelle Williams received a nomination for the movie — it’s just surprising she received one for this one over her role in “The Greatest Showman.”

Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick” -- Snub

Michael Showalter’s charming romantic, um, medical drama accomplishes a lot: boy meets girl, arranged Pakistani marriages get In the way, mystery illness and comas do as well, standup comedy is somehow a major thread. All of the hat-wearing seemed balanced, though, by the sure-footed Souther grit of Hunter’s concerned mom. More like The Big Snub.

Hong Chau, "Downsizing" -- Surprise

Hong Chau may have been the best part of “Downsizing,” but it’s still a surprise that the movie got any kind of nomination. Especially because she took the place of Holly Hunter in “The Big Sick,” which was an obvious prediction for most.

Julia Louis-Dryfus, "Veep" -- Snub

Julia, Julia. Where for art thou, Julia? Not only was "Veep" knocked out of the game this year, but its beloved leading lady didn't get the attention she usually does for her one-of-a-kind comedic chops

Frankie Shaw, "SMILF" -- Surprise

Hey, if "SMILF" itself is in, then Frankie Shaw deserves to be in too. But since the show's addition to the line-up was out of left field, then Shaw's was definitely a shocker.

Winona Ryder, "Stranger Things" -- Snub

Winona Ryder's performance in the sophomore season of the Netflix hit was totally stirring. But stranger things have happened than electrifying acting being ignored by an award show. Even if the actress was up for the same statue the previous year.

Joseph Fiennes, "The Handmaid's Tale" -- Snub

There's no denying Elisabeth Moss was the absolute best part of the first season of Hulu's thrilling drama. But that doesn't mean Joseph Fiennes didn't deserve a nod for the part he played in amping up the creepy factor in the series' dystopian future.

Freddie Highmore, "The Good Doctor" -- Surprise

"The Good Doctor" has dominated Nielsen ratings in the key demo since it premiered this fall. But it was surprising to see the drama has also struck enough of a cord with HFPA to earn leading actor Freddie Highmore some Globes love. Enjoy your very first nom, Highmore.

“Transparent” -- Snub

"Transparent" has been a reliable at the Globes since earning a win for the series and its star, Jeffrey Tambor, in its first season, and has been included in the noms every season since. This year, things took a turn and the snub might be related to the sexual misconduct accusations posed against Tambor.

Geoffrey Rush, "Genius" -- Surprise

Geoffrey Rush grabbed a nod for his performance in Nat Geo’s anthology series "Genius," which is a pretty big shock, considering the allegations of “inappropriate behavior” during an Australian play back in 2015 that recently emerged against the actor.

1 of 26

The Globes keep it weird, again

The 2018 Golden Glob nominations were announced on Monday and among the many shoo-ins and usual suspects were some serious upsets and players that came out of left field. Here are the biggest snubs and surprises this season.

Steve Pond, awards editor at TheWrap, is also author of the L.A. Times bestseller The Big Show. He has been covering entertainment for more than two decades, and is the industry's most knowledgeable Academy Awards prognosticator.