The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to improving the quality of the debate on the European Union. It is a forum for people with ideas from Britain and across the continent to discuss the many political, economic and social challenges facing Europe. It seeks to work with similar bodies in other European countries, North America and elsewhere in the world.

Monday, July 16, 2012

What Central Europe thinks of Britain and why

Britain's Conservative Party is committed to repatriating
powers from the EU. On July 12th, Foreign Secretary William Hague launched a
review of the EU's competences. This would, he told Parliament, be an
"audit of…where competence lies, how the EU's competences, whether
exclusive, shared or supporting, are used, and what that means for our national
interest." Many Conservatives expect this audit to prepare the ground for
a manifesto commitment to renegotiate the terms of Britain's EU membership.
They hope that Britain can obtain opt-outs in areas such as financial services,
judicial co-operation, employment, migration, regional policy or fisheries.
They argue that Britain's partners will wish to change the EU treaties to cope
with the eurozone crisis, and that Britain can trade off the repatriation of
powers in return for its signature.

However, any British opt-out would require the unanimous agreement of every
other member-state. Conversations with diplomats from Central Europe suggest that
there is very little goodwill towards London, even among its formerly stalwart
allies.

The Central Europeans see the UK as an important partner. When David Cameron
circulated a letter in February 2012 outlining single market reforms that would
revive the European economy, five of the eleven co-signatories came from
Central Europe, with Germany and France the notable absentees. The new
member-states sided with London against Paris and Berlin over the Iraq war, and
the UK shares their desire to bring more Balkan countries into the EU – again,
against much scepticism from many continental countries.

And yet the UK cannot count on all Central Europeans to support its demand for
opt-outs from EU legislation. This is for two reasons: Germany has become the central
focus of the region’s foreign policies, and Britain has come to be seen by
other member-states as taking advantage of the common currency's existential
troubles to defend its narrow interests.

Germany is by far the largest investor in Central Europe, and its economy is
deeply embedded in the wider region. When I asked a former finance minister
from Central Europe to predict his country's growth rate, he replied "take
Germany’s number and add one percentage point". Most Central European governments
also assume that there is a possibility of the eurozone fracturing and losing
some of its member-states. If and when it happens, they want to remain a part
of the Berlin-led economic core. London will be of little help in such a crisis
– it is too far away, has too few investments in Central Europe, and wants to
have less and less to do with the EU in general. So the new member-states (and
others in similar situations such as Denmark or the Netherlands) will have few
reasons for wanting to spend political capital on supporting UK demands for
exemptions from EU legislation, especially if Germany opposes them (and senior
officials in Berlin take a hard line in opposing British attempts to repatriate
powers).

Furthermore, the UK offers
nothing in return (it is not contributing to the eurozone bailout fund) and
Britain’s exemptions may adversely affect other countries’ economies. They
fear, for example, that if the UK relaxes social protection for workers (a key
Conservative demand), businesses elsewhere in Europe will migrate to the UK.
"London is engaging in 'beggar-thy-neighbour' tactics", one official
from Central Europe told me (though France and others say the same of the new
member-states' low corporate tax rate). In December 2011 Britain threatened to
veto the proposed ‘fiscal compact’ to secure an opt-out from rules governing
financial services. But the tactic misfired – the rest of the EU minus the
Czech Republic agreed to form the compact anyway; they did so outside existing
EU treaties and without Britain. Any future banking or fiscal union will almost
certainly be organised in a similar way, a Baltic diplomat told me, because the
UK and the Czech Republic – and possibly others – do not want closer
integration. This leaves London without any good means to pressure others to
secure its opt-outs. "The rest of the EU now knows that it is possible to
isolate Britain, and they are more willing than ever to do so. It is not clear
that Britain realises that", the official said.

Nothing has hurt Britain's image elsewhere in Europe more than the perception
that London is failing to help to end the crisis and – worse – that the UK is
taking advantage of others' woes. A Polish official told me that during the
December 2011 negotiations London lobbied Warsaw to stay out of the fiscal
compact. Its creation is a key part of the member-states’ efforts to stop the
run on their sovereign debt. The fact that Britain not only decided against
joining it but sought to discourage other non-euro countries from doing so – presumably
to avoid being isolated – has been seen by many as an act of remarkable ill
will. According to a senior Baltic official "Britain is a nuisance; it
imposes an additional burden on us of having to go around it, complicating
negotiations". This is not entirely fair: British proposals on how to
stimulate economic growth, which many Central European governments signed, are
among the most thoughtful of such contributions. But European diplomats think
that London puts a lot more energy into demanding special deals for itself than
solving the crisis.

The Central European officials I interviewed sounded genuinely regretful of
Britain's growing estrangement from the EU – there was no sense of 'good
riddance' or gloating. But Britain’s likely demands for opt-outs from EU
policies will have very little support from them (with the possible exception of
the Czech Republic). A dangerous situation has emerged. Even though the
government in London seems likely to attempt to unpick some of its ties, rather
than sever them all, it risks rejection. And would a bruised UK want to remain
in the EU? The Central Europeans fear that Britain may drop out in anger, in
effect leaving the EU by accident rather than by design. But, as one Polish
official acknowledged "as long as the eurozone is a mess, Britain will not
want to be shackled to a sinking ship. We need to sort out our banks and
economies first, thus giving London the reason to stay".

Tomas Valasek is director of foreign policy and defence at the Centre for European Reform.

We are all European. World-level investors see Europe as one so we better stick together rather than follow old-fashioned us-and-we demagogy, especially challenged by other economic blocks, or even individual countries.

It's quite nice to invest in Central Europe (I wouldn't really use Central and Eastern, since the centre of the continent is in eastern Lithuania), so new markets and customers may become available to the rest in the nearest future.

Child allowance- perhaps some,Free dentistry - not really - every single visit is paid at least £12, while in most EU countries, including Central Europe, it is absolutely free.Free NHS - well, Britain isn't the only country to have universal healthcare. In fact it was one of the last ones to have it. It is only thanks to Atlee that Britain's poor don't die like in the US. Education - well, PISA results in Central Europe demonstrate that even without EU funding the Education in Central Europe is generally one of the best in the world.Housing - it's again a European thing - a standard rather than something distinctive to the UK.

I wonder if you travel at all.

I also wonder why Britain is not taking its advantage in the EU. It is a big country that could seek for alliance, like Germany, create its bloc, perhaps with conservatives in other EU countries, like Spain, perhaps the Czech Republic and Hungary...