There are three QBs who profile pretty well in comparison to Russell Wilson: Fran Tarkenton, Drew Brees, and Doug Flutie. All three stood 6 foot and change- or less. All three used mobility and smarts to extend plays and avoid injuries. Brees turns 34 next month and is still going strong. Tarkenton played until he was 38. Flutie played until he was 43, and was 39 in his last season as a full time starter.

Russell Wilson has missed just 1 game from injury (week 2 of his freshman year) in five seasons between college and the pros, and hasn't even appeared on an injury report since 2008. In the Bills game he ran the ball 9 times for 92 yards and 3 touchdowns, and was never hit on any of those runs. Clearly this is a QB that knows how to protect himself. He may not be injury proof, but I could see Wilson as being one of the least injured QBs in the NFL during his time in the league.

I think based on the prior history of comparable QBs combined with Wilson's own history and tendencies, there is a very real chance that he could play into his age 38, 39, and 40 seasons. Remember too that he has speed/athleticism to burn, and those kind of players tend to age more gracefully in any sport. He's also a highly intellectual QB- the game slows down for him. Those types tend to play a very long time as well.

The current win leader is Brett Favre, with 186 wins. It's possible that Manning or Brady could last long enough to catch him, but that's where the record stands for now.

Let's say that Wilson has 15 more seasons after this one (16 seasons total). He would retire just a couple months after turning 39. His rookie season could have as few as 9 wins, and as many as 15. Let's split the difference and say he finishes with 12. If Wilson played 16 seasons and had 12 wins in 2012, he'd need 11.6 wins per season to tie Favre when Wilson is age 39.

Given how ridiculously good this current Seahawks team is, how good the front office is and how good the coaching is, that seems like an achievable goal to me. Seattle will probably rank #1 in DVOA whenever Amazon decides to get FO's servers up. Just three years ago they ranked #31 in weighted DVOA (iirc). Even Jim Harbaugh can't boast that big of a statistical swing in his team's fortunes. But I truly believe that we might still yet see this regimes best football yet to come. This team still has issues to iron out. Carroll has been a tremendous fixer and Schneider a virtuoso acquirer of talent. I see a lot of 13 win seasons in our future- with deep playoff runs.

Hell, if winning the Superbowl wasn't so hard to do, I might get cocky and cast hypotheticals on Joe Montana's record too. Wilson will certainly get a lot of chances- and he just seems like the kind of QB who will shine even more in do-or-die moments.

kearly wrote:...This team still has issues to iron out. Carroll has been a tremendous fixer and Schneider a virtuoso acquirer of talent. I see a lot of 13 win seasons in our future- with deep playoff runs...

You have just combined my cappuccino with some well-deserved optimism. Tastes good! It will be fun watching #3 for years to come.

"The problem with the internet is, that one can never trust the authenticity of a source." - Abraham Lincoln

Oh yeah, 186 wins easy. That's totally something we can talk about right now. There are really not very many variables in thinking about how many wins this team is going to get in the 2021 season, so that's totally a prediction we can make right now.

Why stop with Russell? I think we can say at this point with some certainty that next year's first-round draft pick will be a hall-of-famer as well. What has he done to this point that would make you think otherwise? Just because we don't know his name or position doesn't mean we can't project greatness.

LawHawk wrote:Oh yeah, 186 wins easy. That's totally something we can talk about right now. There are really not very many variables in thinking about how many wins this team is going to get in the 2021 season, so that's totally a prediction we can make right now.

Why stop with Russell? I think we can say at this point with some certainty that next year's first-round draft pick will be a hall-of-famer as well. What has he done to this point that would make you think otherwise? Just because we don't know his name or position doesn't mean we can't project greatness.

Well you are certainly a ray of sunshine, thanks for being so positive.

BTW have you forgotten that this is place where people post their opinions? Next time you don't like someone elses post try to remember that just because they don't agree with you does not make them wrong and damn sure doesn't make you right.

Whoaaaaa horsey. Just kidding. I love the optimism, Seattle sports has been without it since 2001, and never have we had it at the QB spot like this. But still, I feel like even in my own head I have to give the guy room to grow. Also, I don't want to think about how old I will be when Russell is 39.

I read some 2013 fantasy football preview (yeah, I know, lame) and the writer was clearly one of those stats dudes who said Russell had a 25 percent chance of improving next year. My immediate response was this dude hasn't actually been watching Russell. Holy shit, the kid gets better every week! Even the greats have bad games, and I keep waiting for one like the St Louis game, but it just hasn't happened.

For the record, Kip, before the FO servers went AWOL, they briefly had the DVOA ratings up, and Seattle was still #2. In fact, the top 8 were all the same, though more closely bunched. Turns out you don't get a big boost for kicking the crap out of a moribund Bills team.

That said, we're going to need a long string of luck when it comes to player health - Wilson's and everyone else's - to achieve that record. Here's hoping it happens that way.

Well we should probably see if he even wins the QB competition next year first. :sarcasm_off:

Hard to really project considering how quickly things can change. After 2005 you would likely predict (based on talent level and coaching) that that crew would likely have a good long run of success but in just a few short years we went from one of the most talented to one of (probably the) the least.

Let's get Wilson to the 50 win mark first, eh? Maybe some time during his 5th season after Seattle puts up a few 12 win seasons.

Also, it looks quite possible that the number won't be 186 by the time Wilson hits 30. Manning needs 34 wins to eclipse the mark (3 more seasons of 12 or 3.5 of 11, age 36), and Brady needs 52 (5 more seasons at 11 wins, age 35).

I love how people read this post and assume I EXPECT Wilson to get to 186 wins. Well maybe I do. But my argument is merely that it's a surprisingly real possibility, when you look at all the factors he's got going for him. This is not something you could say about almost any rookie QB. Ever.

Sarlacc83 wrote:Also, it looks quite possible that the number won't be 186 by the time Wilson hits 30. Manning needs 34 wins to eclipse the mark (3 more seasons of 12 or 3.5 of 11, age 36), and Brady needs 52 (5 more seasons at 11 wins, age 35).

Correct. That's why I mentioned it in the OP. I suspect that by the time Wilson hits 30 he'll be chasing Tom Brady's record, not Brett Favre's. That's why I included the 'for now' caveat.