The Cost of Injury

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INTRODUCTION

It goes without saying that professional football is a high-risk industry in terms of the potential for injury. Research indicates that professional players suffer 25-35 injuries per 1,000 hours of match exposure, giving the game an injury risk factor more than 1,000 times greater than other ‘high-risk’ industries.

As the physical demands and financial stakes continue to increase, those injuries can be difficult to mitigate and often come with a significant cost. According to our research, Premier League clubs paid an estimated £166m to injured players in 2018/19, 14% of total fixed wage expenditure across the division.

Finance is a key consideration when it comes to understanding the cost of injury, but it only tells part of the story. Arguably more important–and yet difficult to measure–is the performance cost of injuries. We know how much a player costs in terms of wages when they are sidelined, but how does their absence affect the on-field performance of their team?

To better understand the cost of injury and highlight the importance of effective injury mitigation processes, we’ve commissioned the football intelligence agency 21st Club to quantify the impact of injuries in elite football in both financial and performance terms.

Part 1: Financial Cost

Premier League players suffered a total of 804 separate injuries during the 2018/19 season, resulting in 18,230 days spent on the sidelines. 21st Club’s research highlights the significant financial cost of those injuries to clubs over the course of the campaign.

On average, players missed 8% of the league campaign (3.04 games) through injury.

The average cost of an injury was £200k in fixed wages.

The two Manchester clubs reportedly spent a combined £43.7m on injured players and more than £6m more than the next biggest spender, Arsenal.

Unsurprisingly, there is a correlation between the financial power of clubs and the total amount spent on injured players. West Ham United were the only team among the top six spenders on injuries that did not finish in the top six in the final standings.

Champions Manchester City paid the most in fixed wages to injured players, with three players combining to miss more than 150 days last season and costing the club an estimated total of £23m.

TOTAL COST OF INJURIES

Wolves enjoyed an excellent injury record on their return to the Premier League. The club spent a league-low £680k on injuries in 2018/19, with their costliest injury being a 27-day layoff for Diogo Jota between December and January.

PROPORTIONAL COST OF INJURIES

Across all teams, the average % of annual wage bill spent on injured players was 14%. West Ham and Tottenham were the only two Premier League clubs to spend more than 20% of their annual wage bill on injured players, while Wolves and Leicester’s low proportional spend helped both clubs to secure top-half finishes.

COSTLIEST INJURIES (WAGES)

In purely financial terms, Alexis Sanchez was the costliest injured player during the season. Sidelined for 128 days and 15 games, the Chilean forward was paid an estimated £6.4m in salary by Manchester United while out of action.

COSTLIEST INJURIES (VALUE)

Having averaged 24.4 Premier League goals per season since 2014/15, Harry Kane’s importance to Tottenham Hotspur is clear. According to 21st Club’s Player Valuation model, Harry Kane represents 19% of Spurs’ total squad value. The striker’s struggles with ankle injuries in 2018/19 meant he missed 33% of the league season, equating to 6% of Tottenham’s squad value on the sidelines during the campaign.

Part 2: PERFORMANCE COST

There are several different elements to consider when assessing the impact of injuries on performance. By attempting to quantify factors such as the quality of sidelined players and the contribution those players would be expected to make, we can start to build a picture of the impact of injury on team performance over the campaign.

HIGHEST QUALITY INJURED PLAYERS

According to 21st Club’s Player Ratings, Tottenham suffered the most key high-quality player injuries during the season, with Erik Lamela, Harry Kane and Dele Alli all missing at least 30% of the season.

Kevin De Bruyne and Alexis Sanchez were two of the highest-quality players to be sidelined for more than 45% of the season.

TEAM PERFORMANCE VS INJURIES

The relationship between injuries and performance is noisy, but there is generally a negative correlation. For example, Tottenham and Manchester United were the second and fourth highest spenders on injured players and both declined in overall performance.

Wolves were the third most improved team in the league after suffering the fewest injuries, although West Ham still improved relative to 2017/18 despite spending the most on injured players as a % of annual wage bill.

A 10% increase in a club’s injured wage bill equates to roughly a point lost over the course of the season.

PERFORMANCE COST OF INJURIES

21st Club’s Player Contribution Model helps us to gauge how the performance of each Premier League team might be affected in points terms if they were to lose their two best players for half of the 2019/20 season.

According to the model, Liverpool are by far the most reliant on their highest quality players (Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane). If both were to miss half the season, the club would expect to be 2.25 points worse off.

Newly promoted sides can be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of injuries, with Aston Villa and Norwich City ranking second and third respectively for expected decline with key injuries.

Manchester City’s strength in depth is evident. The club are the only top six side to rank in the bottom half of impacted teams were they to lose their two best players as rated last season (Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero).

While Liverpool’s figure of 2.25 points may seem low, it is indicative of the strength the best teams have on their bench. At that level, the drop off from a first choice player to a replacement level player is relatively little.

However, it’s worth remembering that two points can make a big difference in the Premier League. In 2018/19 that was the gap between third and fifth places, a difference of £3.9m in prize money and Champions League qualification.

Part 3: Building RTT programs

As we’ve seen, the stakes of injury – in both financial and performance terms – continue to rise. In that context, it has never been more important for teams to implement robust injury risk reduction and return to play processes.

By monitoring athletes and combining data with the expertise of medical staff, clubs can build an enhanced understanding of athlete physiology and benchmark the fitness of individual players. This can enable the identification of early warning signs or underlying injuries and protect against the financial and performance costs of injury.

If you’re interested to learn more about best practice in rehabilitation, download your free copy of Catapult’s ebook Building Effective Return-To-Training Programs: Planning, Delivery & Evaluation for insights from industry experts.

Appendix

Who are Catapult?

Catapult exists to build and improve the performance of athletes and teams at all levels of sport. The business delivers wearable technology, athlete management and video analysis solutions to over 2,900 teams in 39 sports to support crucial performance optimisation, injury risk mitigation and return-to-play operations. PLAYR, Catapult’s consumer wearable technology, brings advanced monitoring devices to amateur football players around the world.

Who are 21st Club?

21st Club’s purpose is to help clients win by thinking differently. Working with over 100 teams, leagues and associations globally, the London-based company advise key decision makers on strategy and future planning, on the principle that success can be achieved without needing to outspend the competition. With world-class predictive intelligence and knowledge of how to apply insight in context, 21st Club helps clients exploit inefficiencies in order to build better futures.

Player Contribution Model

21st Club’s Player Contribution Model rates the performance contribution of over 100,000 players globally. Using a machine-learning algorithm, the model assesses a player’s importance to his team and adjusts for the level at which he is playing, enabling clubs to estimate the points above replacement value of players.

Player Valuation Model

21st Club’s Player Valuation Model assesses every transfer globally to estimate a market rate valuation for any given player, based on his performance and similar players who recently moved clubs.