Comey: Patriots no lock to win AFC East:

Wednesday

Sep 25, 2013 at 2:00 AM

It's been the same way for a decade-plus: If the Patriots started off 3-0, you could pretty much pencil them in as AFC East champions. For that matter, you could count on it somewhere in mid-August — the Patriots were just that much better than the competition.

Jonathan Comey

It's been the same way for a decade-plus: If the Patriots started off 3-0, you could pretty much pencil them in as AFC East champions. For that matter, you could count on it somewhere in mid-August — the Patriots were just that much better than the competition.

But times have changed.

Not only are the 3-0 Patriots no lock to win the East, it'd actually be a mild upset based off early play and talent levels if 3-0 Miami doesn't end up winning the division. And with the way the AFC is shaping up — surprisingly deep, with 10 winning teams — the Patriots aren't going to breeze into the postseason the way everyone assumed they would

History is on the Patriots' side in many ways, including this comforting nugget: Since 1990, 75.4 percent of teams (86 of 114) that started 3-0 made the playoffs. That, plus the probability that this team isn't close to where it will be in November, is probably enough to cut the concern a bit.

Then you look at the schedule, where only three of New England's final 13 games qualify as easy: home vs. Pittsburgh in Week 9, home vs. Cleveland in Week 15, home vs. Buffalo in Week 17. Add that to the three wins in hand, and you're at six, which probably means the Pats have to go 5-5 or better in the following collection of games to win the East: at ATL, at CIN, vs. NO, at NYJ, vs. MIA, at CAR, vs. DEN, at HOU, at BAL, at MIA.

If they're playing the way they are now, I can't see them winning more than five of those games, which would leave them at 11-5 in a crowded AFC — and almost certainly behind Miami.

The offensive improvement in Miami's passing game isn't a huge surprise. Everywhere you turned in the summer, you heard talk that quarterback Ryan Tannehill had "made the leap," and sure enough, he has.

Two of his three games were against above-average pass defenses (Indianapolis and Cleveland), and his completion percentage is at 66.4, up from 58.3 last year. Sacks are a problem (14 so far, most in the league), and so is the running game (3.2 YPC), but Tannehill is doing his job and that's the most important one out there.

The Miami pass defense, though, has also made a big leap forward, from average to world class. Considering that No. 3 overall pick Dion Jordan is still finding his way as a pass rusher, and starting corner Sean Smith left for free agency in the offseason, that's a surprise.

But Smith was replaced by a rejuvenated Brent Grimes, who is back to a Pro Bowl level next to Chris Clemons. And the Dolphins quietly upgraded their linebacking corps with Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler, which is making a difference in the back end as well. The health of Cameron Wake is a concern, but in general this looks like a team with all of the pieces in place.

Meanwhile, New England — if you remove the names on the jersey and the pedigree — looks like the type of 3-0 team that is lucky to be there and primed for disappointment. The Pats don't look like perennial monarchs, but rather scrappy serfs and those are the teams that eventually fade back into oblivion.

So, if you had to pick one of the two teams based on their play so far, it's a no-brainer: the Dolphins.

Still, with all of that said, I'm a firm believer that there's been a real philosophy shift in New England, a return to a more blue-collar ethic that they hope will pay dividends later in the season.

Add Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen to this offense by the time Week 10 rolls around — to go with Julian Edelman, who has pretty much seamlessly replaced the Wes Welker role — and it's a different team. Now, imagine that the defense (which still has something to prove, but looks sharp) has been carrying that team for two months.

In that scenario, the Patriots would have a completely different feel than in years past heading down the stretch — and they need to have a different feel. The offense-first teams didn't have what it took to get it done, and it was time to see if the more balanced approach can pay off in the playoffs.

Assuming they get there.

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for the Standard-Times and can be reached at jcomey@s-t.com.

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