Late Mail AFL Powered by Ladbrokes - 2019 Round 23:06

The Crows are short favourites to win this year’s AFLW premiership. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images)Source:Getty Images

AFL

If you followed the betting advice for AFL Round 1 on this page last week you’d be a very

happy punter.

A steer into the Hawks and Lions as outsiders proved profitable. The three-leg multi at

33-1, which tacked on the Suns as well, missed by two points.

After the opening five games of the season four favourites had been defeated and the

round finished 5-4 in favour of the underdogs.

This week we ask ourselves, “How much do we read into the opening week and whose poor

performance has them over the odds and ready to rebound?”

Sydney finished fairly strongly last week but looked old and slow for much of the contest

against the young Bulldogs.

Adelaide was sub-par against the Hawks but looks more likely to bounce back and represents good value as a road outsider.

GWS looks like another team worth a flutter on the road.

The road trip to Perth is never easy and the Eagles will have the added hoopla of the flag

unveiling but — given their final three-quarters last week against the Lions — the $1.45 for a

West Coast win doesn’t appeal.

The line in the Bulldogs-Hawks clash looks like an over-reaction to Hawthorn’s win and doesn’t give enough credit to the Doggies for their win over Sydney.

AFLW

Erin Phillips of the Adelaide Crows marks in front of Jordan Ivey of the Cats. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

One theory is that the conference system has worked — given the top two teams from

each made it through to the AFLW decider — but the Ladbrokes bookies don’t agree.

You won’t see too many grand finals — or even finals for that matter — with a market as

lopsided Sunday’s grand final.

The Crows have been in the premiership market since it opened and assumed

outright favouritism by the midpoint of the season following a big victory over the

Kangaroos.

As they head into a home grand final at the Adelaide Oval the Crows have been

crunched into $1.14 in the head-to-head with a line edging toward four goals, which is a

significant margin in the women’s league.

Carlton, last year’s wooden-spooners, must be commended for its effort in making it this far

and have continued to defy the odds of the market.

But beating Adelaide in Adelaide for the most unlikely of premierships? That’s a bridge to

far.

$1.14 is better than bank interest, as is the $1.32 for the Crows/Crows, Half Time/Full Time

double.

NRL

North Queensland’s Jason Taumalolo after the Cowboys loss to the Broncos. Picture: Alix SweeneySource:News Corp Australia

Can the North Queensland Cowboys win without Jason Taumalolo?

Ladbrokes punters say no.

The Cowboys have blown out from $11 to $19 with Ladbrokes since their star forward was ruled out for 10 weeks with a knee injury and punters don’t want a bar of them against the Sharks this weekend.

Despite having home-ground advantage the Cowboys are $2.05 outsiders and there has been four times as much money for the Sharks at the price of $1.77.

Another side that has been well-backed this weekend are the Canberra Raiders.

They are $1.70 to bounce back to winning form against the Newcastle Knights ($2.14).

Punters have been quick to desert the Knights after their loss to Penrith last weekend but they did win four of their 10 games as away underdogs last season for a clear profit.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.22) will start their Sunday afternoon match against the Gold Coast Titans as the shortest-priced favourites of the season and the line has been set at a hefty 12.5 points.

The Titans have had a shocking start to the season but are a team that can produce when they aren’t expected and they were a profitable betting play as away underdogs last season.

The upset win over the Crusaders last weekend suggests it but they remain at $21 in Super Rugby betting.

Punters are much more confident they will beat the Sunwolves tonight and the Waratahs are $1.14 to make it two wins on the trot.

Punters taking that price must have short memories as the Sunwolves almost beat the

Waratahs a little more than a month ago and have been far from disgraced in any of their games this season.

The highlight of the weekend is set to be an intriguing Australian derby between the Reds and the Rebels.

The Rebels are $1.67 favourites but the home side has won five of the past seven games played between the two sides and the Reds have an excellent record as home underdogs over the past 12 months.

BEST BETS

HORSE RACING

Nakeeta Jane to win the Vinery Stud Stakes @ $6.50

Nakeeta Jane returned to the races with a fast-finishing win in the Light Fingers Stakes and proved that was no fluke with an impressive victory in the Surround Stakes. She was far from disgraced when finishing third behind The Autumn Sun and Fundamentalist and the step up to 2000 metres should not be an issue.

NRL

Manly Sea Eagles to beat New Zealand Warriors @ $2.28

The Manly Sea Eagles showed some promising signs against the Sydney Roosters last week and take on a New Zealand Warriors side that was poor against the Wests Tigers. Manly has won seven of the past eight games between these two sides and the Warriors have lost three of their past five games as away favourites.

AFL

James Worpel celebrates a goal with Jack Gunston of the Hawks during the Round 1 win over the Adelaide Crows. Picture: AAP Image/David MariuzSource:AAP

Western Bulldogs to beat Hawthorn @ $2.90

The market has overreacted to Hawthorn’s Round 1 win and the Bulldogs are

great value at $2.90. The Bulldogs played well to beat Sydney last weekend and take on a team that was a losing betting proposition as favourites last season.

A-LEAGUE

Wellington Phoenix to beat Newcastle Jets @ $2.05

The Phoenix continues to be an outstanding side from a betting perspective and they looks like a safe bet against the Jets. The Phoenix has won all five of its games as home favourites. The Jets have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs.