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NFL Picks

Week 9 Props: Who Ya Got – A-Rod or Tom Terrific

There are several intriguing games on tap in Week 9 but none more than the Packers vs. the Patriots and their respective future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks Rodgers vs. Brady. Let’s analyze a few of the prop bets on the greatest gunslingers in the game.

Who Will Record More Pass Completions in Week 9?

Aaron Rodgers (-120)

Tom Brady (-120)

If you’re wondering why the NFL odds board is showing this prop as a coin flip between two of the greatest passers to ever grace the gridiron, then get a load of this. Both Rodgers and Brady are completing an average of 24.8 passes per game. So, trying to choose one over the other will take more than just a glance at what they’ve done up until to this point in the season. This has an awful lot to do with the opposing defenses and which quarterback is more likely to have an easier go at it.

Well, the verdict is in, particularly after the Packers traded away Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to the Washington Redskins for a fourth-round pick. Say what?! Clinton-Dix is a former first-rounder who morphed into a Pro Bowler in 2016 and has three interceptions under his belt this season. Yes, he’s a free agent at the end of the season but…. Okay, we’re not here to bemoan the errors of the Packers’ ways but rather why this turn of events can only help the Patriots, and Tom Brady to be specific. Green Bay will thrust cornerback Tramon Williams into Clinton-Dix’s safety slot which is a bit of a gamble, as the first offense he will face from his new vantage point will be New England’s.

On the other hand, the Patriots have long used the Belichickian defensive philosophy of bend-but-don’t-break which goes a long way to explaining why New England owns the 12th ranked defense in points allowed but is way down the bottom at No. 27 in passing yards allowed per game. Conversely, Green Bay’s pass defense ranks near the top at No. 5 but without Ha Ha, it could be the Pats that have the last laugh!

Nevertheless, the critical factor is that Green Bay has the luxury of a running game that is beginning to take shape under Aaron Jones while New England is so depleted in their backfield that they employed a wideout, Cordarrelle Patterson, as their lead tailback last week. Due to a heavily undermanned backfield, we see Tom Brady more likely to throw more often than Rodgers as TB12 will be without an effective ground game and will likely toss plenty of short stuff just to slowly move up the field like any other team would with an effective ground-and-pound attack.

Free NFL Pick: Bet Tom Brady (-120) to have more completions than Rodgers in Week 9 at Bovada in your NFL picks.

Passing yards and pass completions are correlated but not inextricably linked. Now if we were talking yards per pass average, well that would be a slam dunk for Rodgers because he’s more apt to go deep because that’s his bread and butter. However, Brady has made his bones off the blood, sweat, and tears of slot receivers like Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and big target Rob Gronkowski. Of the four only Gronk and Edelman remain but coupled with Josh Gordon, Brady still has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Running back James White is also another outlet receiver and for the same reasons listed above, we believe that Brady is an underdog worth betting here with more completions that will ultimately add up to more yardage.

Free NFL Pick: Bet Tom Brady (+110) to have more passing yards than Rodgers in Week 9 at Bovada.