This election will be the first one in which
candidate-centric rhetoric will be much more than just calculated distraction
from substantive policy debate because Donald Trump broke the GOP presidential
nominating system. An angry, ignorant demagogue without a clue about the job he
seeks successfully hijacked the GOP nomination.
The simple truth is that nobody can predict what Donald Trump would do
as president. No one can count on him to champion any coherent policy agenda. His
rhetoric is literally insane. His promises and boasts are indistinguishable
from what one would expect from a mental patient.

Hillary Clinton is the presumptive Democratic nominee. On the one hand, to borrow loosely from Joe, it’s a really big, er, deal. On the other hand, ambivalence reigns amongst Democrats and Secretary Clinton is deeply unpopular for a major party nominee. The history of women in politics suggests it had to be this way.

James Carville put a note up on the wall of his campaign headquarters for Bill Clinton in 1992, “The economy, stupid.” It was a reminder of one of the key elements of Democratic campaign and an effort to say on message.

For any third party candidate with dreams of the White House, I suggest something similar: “It’s the electoral college!” Don't ever forget that this constitutional arrangement controls your destiny.

Obviously, Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination would be a terrible
turn of events for the Republican Party and the modern conservative movement. The
Republicans are serious under dogs in the presidential election this year regardless
of who they nominate.The electoral math,
turnout in presidential years, the state of the economy and foreign affairs,
all favor the Democratic nominee, though these advantages only tell part of the
2016 story and can
be over-valued. The real ace-in-the-hole for the Democratic nominee is the
clarity of the institutional partisan stakes in 2016, and the persistent power
of “party identity,” which remains
the principle driver of voters’ political and electoral calculations.

For Trump, political interests and principles are just variables in a market analysis. He jumped into presidential politics this year because he saw very friendly market conditions. He recognized the timing was good for responding to the pent up political demands of a certain type of voter, and that in 2016 at least he is more well positioned to exploit that demand in the short run than are the professional pols on the national stage.

More than anything else right now President Obama wants to insure that his successor is a Democrat. If the next president is a Republican, everything President Obama was able to achieve via executive order would be undone post-haste, and his most important legislative accomplishments would undoubtedly be scaled back or reversed. The negative consequences of GOP control of both Congress and the White House would be catastrophic.Until the untimely death of Antonin Scalia, Obama’s 2016 electoral calculations were even simpler.

The editors of the New York Times, citing
recent Gallup data and analysis, have suggested that because more than 40% of
Americans in 2015 identified themselves as “independents,” rather than
Democrats or Republicans the 2016 presidential election may turn more on
candidate-centric factors. They quote Gallup’s analysis as follows: “[T]he lack of strong attachment to the parties could make
candidate-specific factors, as opposed to party loyalty, a greater
consideration for voters in choosing a president in this year’s election than
they have been in past elections.”

This analysis reminds
me of the line from the movie “My Cousin Vinny” when the judge denies Vincent’s
objection. It is cogent, logical, and reasonable, but wrong.

As he surveyed the landscape of emerging political campaigns in the 1840s, former President John Quincy Adams denounced the “fearful extent [of] itinerant speechmaking” and the “revolution in the habits in the manners of people” that it brought about.

Adams wondered where this all might lead. Now we know: it leads to presidential candidates like Donald Trump and there will be plenty more in future.