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NRA ally Pat Toomey’s gun control moment

Showing a pragmatic side on guns could soften Toomey's image among moderates. | AP Photo

“Toomey has, I think, gotten some credit, … but not enough for his willingness to cross the aisle and compromise,” said longtime Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna. “He has reached across the aisle on other occasions with [New York Sen. Chuck] Schumer, with Casey, … and I think overall, he’s shown a willingness to … compromise where he can without compromising his core principles.”

Ultimately, Toomey’s move on background checks isn’t particularly risky politically. While opinions on other gun control measures are mixed in the state, support for universal background checks is nearly unanimous. A Franklin & Marshall poll in February found that 94 percent of Pennsylvania voters favored requiring background checks for all gun sales.

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The Toomey-Manchin compromise would require background checks at gun shows and for online sales but will exempt personal transfers from background checks.

“On this measure, almost every bit of polling evidence in Pennsylvania shows that the position he seems to be lining up behind is very popular,” Borick said. “He’s not going out on a limb with the general electorate in the state.”

“Obviously, there will be some people who are upset about any kind of new regulation, but Sen. Toomey’s argument is one that I happen to believe — this isn’t gun control; this is expanding background checks,” Zaborney said.

Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said this of Toomey: “What I make of it is that different parts of the country have different views on the gun issue. Some states are a little more complicated than others. It’s not too complicated in Texas.”

Still, as Rendell pointed out, it’s unlikely that the NRA will abandon him over the background checks compromise.

“There’s no way the NRA will support a Democrat,” he said. “The NRA can voice its displeasure and disagreement, but in the end, the NRA will stick with Pat Toomey over any Democrat.”

Despite the more challenging electorate he’ll face, there’s no indication at this point that Toomey is in particular trouble for 2016: Polling consistently shows him with decent, if unspectacular, approval ratings.

A March poll from Quinnipiac University found him with a 43 percent approval rating compared with 32 percent who disapprove. A quarter of the state’s voters said they had no opinion, giving Toomey more room to define himself in the coming years.

Past GOP Senate candidates in the Keystone State have managed to run ahead of the presidential nominee despite higher Democratic turnout, Zaborney noted.

“Rick Santorum was reelected for the Senate in a presidential election year,” he said. “If we can reelect Rick Santorum in a presidential year, we can reelect Pat Toomey.”