Tropical Storm Dorian now has Florida in cone of uncertainty

Monday

Aug 26, 2019 at 10:36 PM

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Dorian is packing 60 mph winds but now has parts of Florida in its projected track, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 5 p.m. EDT advisory Monday, the NHC projects Dorian will be a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds by Wednesday as it passes over or near Puerto Rico. Then the storm is forecast to pass over or near the island of Hispaniola before heading toward the Bahamas and possible track to Florida, according to its latest path of projected movement.

Tropical-storm-force winds could be felt in South Florida as early as Friday and in Central Florida by Saturday, based on the NHC’s forecast.

The storm, however, is still a long way away from the Sunshine State, and a lot can change in the next several days.

“I’ve been doing this 21 years, and I can tell you this track will change many, many times,” said WOFL-TV meteorologist Jayme King. “It’ll scare us, we’ll be relieved, then we’ll be scared again. It’s important just to be ready to go should this come a little bit closer to the region as proposed right now.”

The National Hurricane Center echoed King’s sentiments.

“While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place,” the hurricane center said.

As of 5 p.m. Dorian’s center was located about 60 miles east-southeast of Barbados and 165 miles east-southeast of St. Lucia. The storm was moving west-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts and tropical-storm-force winds extending 45 miles from Dorian’s center.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for St. Lucia. Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines are under a Tropical Storm Warning, while Puerto Rico, Dominica, Saba, St. Eustatius, Grenada and its dependencies are under a Tropical Storm Watch.

The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma. The majority of the environmental conditions support at least steady strengthening, with the main hindrance being the very dry midlevel air surrounding the cyclone and occasionally being entrained into Dorian’s inner-core region.

The small but robust circulation should continue to mix out the brief dry air intrusions, but when an eyewall will form is still uncertain. The intensity forecast still calls for Dorian to be near hurricane strength when it passes through the Windward Islands. Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72 to 96 hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions.

Most of the global models along with the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how much of Dorian’s core will interact with Hispaniola.

“Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola,” forecasters said.

“Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area,” the NHC said Monday. “Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.”

The storm has developed slowly, but conditions favor it to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday, forecasters said.

“Anticipating when an eye will form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Windward Islands,” hurricane center forecasters said.

While several models are used for the hurricane center’s consensus cone of uncertainty, King said he’s been paying close attention to the European model.

“It has very good resolution and has been in the vicinity of this track that NHC is proposing now for the last two or three days,” King said. “I’ve noticed that it kind of brings it in closer range to Florida during that time.”

The exact path will determine how much the storm interacts with the islands in the Caribbean, and whether it will affect the storm’s intensity before potentially restrengthening in the warm waters near the Bahamas.

In Dorian’s immediate path, though, forecasters said the storm is likely to bring 3 to 8 inches of rain from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands.

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