Basic Country Statistics and Indicators (2014)

Population

Total Population

Total Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts
all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship - except for refugees not permanently
settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their
country of origin. The values shown are midyear estimates.

Why does it matterPopulation is one core
factor of risk generation as it implies the settlement of people and assets that can lead to an
increase of the exposure and the vulnerability to hazards.

Urban population, Urban Population Growth

Urban Population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national
statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from
the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects.

Why does it matterUrban Population growth
which is often accompanying unmanageable sprawling and unmanaged settlements, can be seen as a
driver of disaster risk, since rapid and unregulated urban development can contribute to the
concentration of people and assets in hazardous locations.

Population density

Population density is midyear population divided by land area in square
kilometres. Land area is a country's total area, excluding area under inland water bodies, national
claims to continental shelf, and exclusive economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland
water bodies includes major rivers and lakes (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterA high population density
can increase the exposure and the vulnerability to disasters, when the people and the assets exposed
are not settled in a planned and sustainable manner; when this is the case, a hazardous event can
lead to increased damage and loss.

Economic indicators

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the value of a country's overall output of goods
and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.
It is calculated at purchaser's prices and is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers
in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the
products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for
depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for
GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few
countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual
foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used (The World Bank Economic
Development Indicator).

Why does it matterGDP generally measures the
economic capacity/vitality of a country for a given year.

GDP per capita

GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the
sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus
any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions
for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data
are in current U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterDividing the GDP by the
number of persons gives an indication of the individuals economic well-being in a country for a
given year.

Capital stock

Capital stock as referred to in GAR15 in the context of risk assessments is the
total value of commercial and residential buildings, schools and hospitals in each country. This
excludes infrastructure such as roads, telecommunications and water supply (UNISDR).

Why does it matterCapital stock as defined in
GAR 15, gives an idea of the value of the exposed assets and can be used to assess a country's
average annual loss or probable maximum loss.

GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)

GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) - formerly gross domestic fixed investment -
includes land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment
purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices,
hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. According to the
1993 SNA, net acquisitions of valuables are also considered capital formation. Data are in current
U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterIn the context of GAR, GFCF
is the total investment of a country in new infrastructure and improvement of existing
infrastructure for a given year. This indicator is compared with Average Annual Loss (AAL ) giving
an idea of how much investment would be needed to cover future losses. GFCF is flow concept of a
given year while capital stock is accumulated stock concept.

Social Expenditure

Social Expenditure relates to government spending on education, health and social
protection (The World Bank Economic Development Indicator).

Why does it matterIn the context of GAR,
social expenditure is compared with Average Annual Loss (AAL )to provide an idea of the implications
of the potential negative impact on the social expenditure and accompanying loss of social welfare
of a country.

Total reserves

Total reserves minus gold comprise special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members
held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange under the control of monetary authorities. Gold
holdings are excluded. Data are in current U.S. dollars (The World Bank Economic Development
Indicator).

Why does it matterTotal reserves suggests an
element of a countries' capacity and ability to finance disaster recovery and reconstruction.

Frequency

Mortality

Economic issues

Probabilistic risk results

Probabilistic Risk

Probabilistic risk assessment uses mathematical models to combine any possible future
hazard scenarios, information about the exposed assets and the vulnerability, to provide results of an
estimate of probable loss levels in a region of interest. Unlike historical estimates, probabilistic
risk assessment takes into account all disasters that can occur in the future, including very intensive
losses with long return periods, and does overcomes the limitations associated with estimated derived
from historical disaster loss data.

Why does it matterProbabilistic risk assessment
gives an overview of estimated losses, which can provide guidance to predict and plan for future losses.
This information can be used to plan and prioritize investments and strategies for managing disaster
risk.

Average Annual Loss (AAL)

The Average Annual Loss is the expected loss per annum associated to the occurrence of
future perils assuming a very long observation timeframe.

Why does it matterIt considers the damage caused
on the exposed elements by small, moderate and extreme events and results a useful and robust metric for
risk ranking and comparisons.

AAL Flood results are provisional. These results give an overview of the risk
associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable
influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards.

Probable Maximum Loss (PML)

The Probable Maximum Loss is a risk metric that represents the maximum loss that could
be expected, on average, within a given number of years.

Why does it matterPML is widely used to establish
limits related to the size of reserves that, for example, insurance companies or a government should
have available to buffer losses: the higher the return period, the higher the expected loss. PML always
have associated a mean return period.

Mean return period of 100, 250, 500, 1000 and 1500 years means the 5%, 2%, 1%, 0.5%
and 0.3% probability respectively of exceeding those losses in 5 years.

Exposure to volcano

INFORM 2015 Risk Index

INFORM 2015 Risk Index

The INFORM model adopts the three aspects of vulnerability reflected in the UNISDR definition. The aspects of physical exposure and physical vulnerability are integrated in the hazard & exposure dimension, the aspect of fragility of the socio-economic system becomes INFORM's vulnerability dimension while lack of resilience to cope and recover is treated under the lack of coping capacity dimension.

SourceIndex for Risk Management 2015 (INFORM 2015) - Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission- http://www.inform-index.org