Saturday, December 10, 2011

Centaures is a new comic book from Eric Loutte (Biggles) and Emmanuel Herzet staring the Rafale fighter jet. The 2 Belgian authors had the opportunity to spend 1 week onboard the Charles De Gaulle Aircraft carrier to gather priceless technical informations, feelings and pictures for their work. They also went to the Landivisiau Rafale simulation center for 3 days.

All the technical details have been checked and approved by 2 French Navy Officers, Commander Fabre and Rafale pilot Captain Guillaume Jacob which is a garanty for high realism.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

In early 2011 we published 2 news related to the Brazilian intention to build a new aircraft carrier. Then we hinted that the aircraft carrier design presented by DCNS at Euronaval 2010 was most probably an answer to a Brazilian request rather than to a French one.

2 days ago, French defense journalist Jean Guisnel published an article confirming that Brazil is indeed seeking an industrial partnership in order to build 2 CATOBAR aircraft carriers. Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim would have tackled the subjet when he came to France on October 18 (19 ?). According to Jean Guisnel article, the Brazilian decision would be expected in 12 or 18 months.

This is of course a very important news as the aircraft selected for those carriers will most probably be the same as the FX-2 winner. If so, this is an advantage for the Rafale and the F/A-18E as they both are carrier capable.

On the other hand, It's been one full month since the opening of the bids on November 4 and the Indian Ministry of Defense had stated then that 3 to 4 for weeks would be necessary to assess both offers and select the best one.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Wednesday December 7, During an interview on LCP TV , French defense Minister Gerard Longuet stated that the Rafale production will be stopped if the Plane is not exported after the French forces have received all their airframes. The claim was immediatly spread out of context in many French and international media giving the impression that the production was about to be stopped which is obviously not the case as it is expected to run at least until 2018 (as reminded by Longuet) and most probably until 2022-25 at the current pace.

Edit december 8 :
To clarify Gerard Longuet statement, the Ministry of Defense has issued an official note stating :
"If Dassault does not export the Rafale, The production for the French army will not end before 2030. The deliveries will spread long after 2020. In the meantime, the aircraft will get upgrades between 2020 and 2030"

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

The Rafale team took note of the choice of Swiss authorities for the
acquisition of their future fighter aircraft. It regrets that the
Federal Council, as officially expressed, has "knowingly decided not to
position Switzerland at the highest European level as regards the
performance of new combat aircrafts."

The capabilities of the Rafale would allow the Helvetic Confederation to
acquire a lesser number of aircraft to meet operational requirements,
at a cost equivalent or less, as shown by the evaluations of the Swiss
Air Force.

The "helvetic" Gripen exists only on paper. Its technical development
and production should increase significantly the financial efforts of
the Swiss authorities for the implementation of this program.

Rafale International thanks the 250 Swiss companies that have joined its
project of Industrial Partnership in the 26 cantons of the Helvetic
Confederation.

So Switzerland has decided not to follow the recomendation of the Armasuisse experts and to go with the less expensive aircraft. So be it. It's worth noting that this is the first export of the Gripen-NG which is not in service anywhere yet. So Switzerland is also taking some risks regarding the development of the aircraft.Eventually, many people in the Swiss Air Force might wonder what was the point of the technical evaluation...

A few days before switzerland makes its final choice, the main operational results of the Armasuisse evaluation have been released.

Armasuisse made a first evaluation of the Gripen, Rafale and Eurofighter in 2008. Several Air to Air and Air to Ground trials were performed by the 3 contenders, in Switzerland, in order to assess their relative efficiency in different roles.
A second Evaluation was done between March and August 2009 to take into account the upgrades and improvements of the 3 fighters in their "2015 form". This evaluation was based on data provided by the manufacturers or simulated flights. This final Armasuisse report, with updated rankings was released in November 2009 and is recommending the Rafale for the Swiss Air Force (confirming the rumors heard during the last 2 years).

In this report, each capability is ranked on 9 points, 6 points being the minimum score to meet the Swiss Air Force requirement (We understand that the 6 points benchmark would be the F/A-18C score)

Basler Zeitung has published the scores for 2 main mission types (see above) : defensive and offencive Air-Air missions. The green scores refer to the 2008 evalaluation while the red scores refer to the final 2009 evaluation including 2015 improvements.

The Rafale is ranked first with 7.28 and 7.41 points,

The Eurofighter second with 6.49 and 6.54 points,

The Gripen is third with 5.68 and 5.62 points. Therefore it does not manage to pass the threshold of 6 points.

"The performance of the Gripen in air-air engagements as well as attack missions was insufficient""The most
limiting factors of the Gripen design were the
operating time, the flight performance and the maximum weapon load""The Rafale is the only
aircraft that has met the requirements of the Air Force in all types of
applications"
So the report is quite clear regarding the capabilities of the 3 aircrafts:
1- The Rafale is the best technical performer and thus recommended as the Tiger replacement.
2- The Rafale was ranked above the Eurofighter in both Air defense and ground attack missions.
3- The Gripen has serious weaknesses and is considered as a step back compared to the F/A-18 operated by the Swiss Air Force.

Monday, November 28, 2011

7 Rafale M of The 12F squadron have left their home base of Landivisiau, (Brittany) and moved to the Hyeres Naval Base in order to perform training with the French Navy ships based in Toulon. they will also work with the "Ile du Levant" facilities (missile tests). The training will take place from November 29 to December 16.

Brazil, Qatar, United Arabe Emirates, Switzerland, Malaisya, Kuwait, Greece, India ... all those countries have shown or are showing interest in the Rafale. According to you which are the most likely to order the French Fighter jet ?
You can answer this question in the pool on the right (multiple choices allowed)

The squadron should open its website soon with high quality pictures (sneak preview below). Meanwhile, you can check their facebook page. All pictures thanks to El Doctor. Also don't miss the superb Mirage F1 pictures on Checksix

Saturday, November 19, 2011

"We're calculating very hard. A lot of work is going on. In
another four weeks, we should be able to wrap it up. No matter how long
it takes, we have to get it right. There are a lot of complicated
figures. But mid-December we should have a good sense of who gets
selected."

French Foreign Minister, Alain Juppe will be in the UAE during the end of this week. He will most probably try to overcome the price issue raised by the UAE authorities during the Dubai Airshow. Back in October, Juppe was personnaly tasked by President Sarkozy to manage the negociations with the UAE about the Rafale. According to the French Paper "Le Point" he would also be in charge of negociating the sale of the 60 Emirate Mirage 2000-9 to ... Libya.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

"Thanks to French President Sarkozy, France could not have done more diplomatically or politically to secure the Rafale deal. Bi-lateral relations have never been stronger and his constant personal intervention in this process has sustained Dassault at the forefront of our considerations. Regrettably Dassault seems unaware that all the diplomatic and political will in the World cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms."

This is how wednesday 16 began for Dassault: a straight and unequivocal declaration by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed reported by WAM the Emirates News Agency
The news, rapidly spread all over the web and media like a shockwave raising one question: does that mean the negociations are over and the deal is as good as dead ?

Well, even if the words are quite direct, they are also very precise : First the role of the French President in the negociations is saluted, meaning that there is no polical issue between France and the UAE. Then Dassault is pointed out for the price they ask for the 60 jets. I interpret that as a direct request from the Crown Prince to the French presidency to put pressure on Dassault in order to lower the price of the whole Rafale package.

So, is the deal dead ? Apparently no, or at least not yet. According to a French source quoted by Reuters, negociations are still ongoing and the Crown Prince declaration would be part of the trading "game". Indeed, the UAE are well aware that Switzerland and India are also about to sign for either the Rafale or the Typhoon in the following weeks. Therefore the Typhoon RFP and the public statement of wednesday morning are puting considerable pressure on Dassault. As a consequense, a Rafale failure in the UAE could put the French manufacturer in a very bad position in India. Clearly, Eurofighter Gmbh RFP announcement was a smart move, executed with a perfect timing. But as a matter of fact, the chess game is not over yet.

Despite all the noise surrounding the RFP sent to Eurofighter Gmbh, French authorities present at the Dubai Airshow seem quite confident about a favorable outcome for the Rafale. Though they probably have been surprised by this announcement whereas they were hopping for a signature during the fair. Nevertheless, several positive statements have been made since the RFP development.

The French Air Force chief, General Palomeros has insisted on the fact that the technical part of the negociations (system upgrades and new weapon loads) have been settled and agreed. The UAE also abandoned their request for a more powerfull M88-2 after several successfull tests in hot temperture condition.

"We would like to achieve a common standard, and invest in new
capabilities" (additional radar
modes, electronic warfare and communications).They [the UAE] are
not buying an aircraft, they are buying a system, and France is a real
partner”
[...]
"The negotiations are now about the cost of maintenance and manpower. The
French defense ministry has also been negotiating a costed, long-term
support contract with Snecma for the M88"

This is also confirmed by UAE's former Air Force chief, Major General Khaled
al-Buainnain who said last Saturday to Xe.com:

"There's no required enhancements.The UAE has always special requirements. I think the
enhancement issue is over, the issue is now financial and contractual.
This is a massive project that needs deliberate study."

Tactical Reportis also pointing out the fact that from the UAE point of view, the Typhoon RFP should not be interpreted as a lower interest for the Rafale.

With 3 highly important contests (UAE, India and Switzerland) involving the Rafale and the Typhoon, expected to be decided before the end of the year, both delta canard jet teams are pushing hard to occupy the mediatic ground and appear in a favourable stance.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

After India and Switzerland, it seems that another battle between the twin European fighters is on the way in the UAE. The Eurofighter consorsotium has confirmed today at the opening of the Dubai AirShow that it was asked by the UAE to make an offer for an unknown Typhoon number in order to replace the Mirage 2000-9 of the country. This comes as a surprise as France was supposed to be in final negociations to sell the Rafale. It's worth noting that it is Britain and BAE which are in charge of exporting the Typhoon in the Middle East. They had a first informative meeting with the UAE authorities about the jet capabilities on October 17.

What does this last minute development mean for the Rafale ? First it is almost certain, now, that no deal can be expected during the Dubai Air Show or even before the end of the year. As a mater of fact, the UAE ar not in a hurry (their Mirage 2000-9 are almost new) and they will take all the time necessary to squeeze the French offer until the last drop. By the way, this situation looks very much like when Saudi Arabia was negociating its Typhoon and put the Rafale in the Balance to get more from BAE and the UK.

Last year, The UAE had already asked Boeing to make a F-18E offer and earlier in 2011, they were also negociating with Lockheed Martin for additional F-16E.

Friday, November 11, 2011

The Dubai Air Show will take place from November 13 to November 17. The French Air Force will send 3 Rafale to the fair: 2 for the static display and 1 for the in flight solo display.
The French Air Force chief, General Palomeros, will be present at the opening ceremony on November 13.

The French authorities are in final negotiations with the UAE for the purchase of 60 Rafale, but it is not known if an announcement will be made during the Air show.

November 5, Mont de marsan Air Base, the French Defense Minister,
Gerard Longuet, has met the men and women of the 3 armed forces who
participated in the operations over Libya.
He notably underlined
the first elint missions as early as February 23, as well as the first
strikes conducted by Rafale and Mirage 2000 crews on March 19, while the
Gaddafi Air defense network was still fully operational. Despite the
risk, the French airmen managed to stop and neutralize the dictator's
tanks a few hours from the Benghazi city.
source : defense.gouv.fr

Back to the nineties ! Here is a very interesting video from the French TV show "Pegase". We are in October 1995 and the Rafale team has moved to Lakehurst, USA, to perform the 4th catapult and arresting cable trial campaign with heavy loads. In the Video, we can see the Rafale M01 captapulted with 2 full 2000L external fuel tanks (total weight: 19.2 metric tons). For safety reasons, those external tanks were filled with water to be droped before landing (as seen at the end of the video)

Lakehurst NAES, New jersey, is the only western facility equiped for land based catapult trials. The Rafale M01 did 4 trial campaigns at Lakehurst (one in 1992, 2 in 1993 and one in 1995). Then the M02 (2nd Rafale M prototype) started the sea trials on the Foch French aircraft carrier (now, Sao Paulo, in service in the Brazilian Navy)

At 1min40, we can see the most famous Eric Gerard, Dassault test pilot and former French Navy pilot who performed, with his collegue Yves Kerhervé, these early Rafale M trials (sweat 90s style pullover BTW :) )

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Following the rumors about the 2 bids that were opened last Friday November 4th, lets speculate a little bit.
It is said that both bids are very close to each other with the Rafale about 5% cheaper. Although this difference may seem insignificant at first glance, it's still a quite large amount of money considering the unit price of a jet and the quantity bought by the IAF.

With a total order of 126 fighters, those 5% represent the price of 6 Rafale. That means that for the same price, you can either get 126 typhoon or 132 Rafale. It's as if Dassault was giving an additional plane for free for each squadron of 20 planes... nice :)

Now, if we estimate that the unit cost of the Typhoon is $100 million and the Rafale $95 millions (5% less), The total cost difference for 126 airframes reaches $630 million which represents no less than 700 mica missiles (given a mica price at $0.85 millions)

In this perspective those 5% start to make sense : Either you get 6 more airframes, or you can get enough BVR missiles to equip your entire MMRCA fleet (6 missiles per aircraft)...for free.

Yet, it also works the other way if the typhoon is the cheapest (as reported by Deccan Herald) ;)

Monday, November 7, 2011

November 4th, 02;00 pm, The last 4 Rafale that were stationed at the Sigonella Air base, Sicily, have returned to their home base of Saint Dizier yesterday, as reported by the French Ministry of defense.
The pilots were welcome by their family and the "Provence" and Gascogne" squadrons staff.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

So, the bids have been unsealed and their content revealed to Dassault, EADS and the Indian Defense Ministry officials.
Then, each company has forwarded the figures to their respective government. The Indian MOD has already stated that the final decision will be anounced in 6 to 8 weeks. Until then, both competitors must respect a non divulgation agreement.
However, some rumors are already leaking...

Rumor N°1 : Dassault bid would be only marginally lower, meaning that it will take some time to find out the best offer including all parameters.

Rumor N°2 : both bids would be above the initial 42,000 Crore ($10 billions) estimate of the Indian MOD stated in 2007. That's not really a surprise but, now, some sources are talking about $20 billions which is a huge increase.

Rumor N°3 : A scheduled meeting, on the sidelines of the G20, between French president Sarkozy and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan have been cancelled and the cause could be related to the MMRCA and the opening of the bids (well, this one sounds very unlikely).

This is it. the Indian Authorities and the Executives from Dassault and EADS will know in a few hours who is the lowest bidder of the MMRCA contest.
Indeed, the procedure imposes to both contender to be present during the opening of the sealed offers.
Theoricaly the lowest bid should win but in fact the process is a bit more complicated as the offset proposals which were submited and approved last month and the maintenance/operating costs have to be taken into account to identify the best overall offer. According to the IAF Air Marshal at least 3 weeks will be necessary to compute the best package.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

48h before the openning of the 2 finalists' bids, the US departement has initiated a last attempt to win the contest by proposing (again) the F-35 to indian authorities.

[...] India has demonstrated its interest in upgrading its inventory of fighter aircraft. It intends topurchase 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft and is working with Russia on the developmentof the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). The U.S. F-16 and F-18competed, but were not down-selected, in the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA)competition in April 2011. Despite this setback, we believe U.S. aircraft, such as the Joint StrikeFighter (JSF), to be the best in the world. Should India indicate interest in the JSF, the UnitedStates would be prepared to provide information on the JSF and its requirements (infrastructure,security, etc.) to support India’s future planning. [...]

Honnestly I don't really understand the meaning or the purpose of such a move. Do they really expect india to cancel the MMRCA process if Dassault and Eurofighter bids are too high ? If so, a F-35 proposal would probably be out of the MMRCA price range too. Besides, India is already involved in a partnership with Russia to develop its own stealth medium and heavy fighters. It this context, it is difficult to imagine the US accepting to provide sensitive F-35 technology to India unless they intend to provide a F-35 "lite" with downgraded stealth capabilities.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Cassidian, EADS military branch, part of the Eurofighter consortium displayed a strange chart during the last Seoul Air Show. According to Cassidian predictions, the Rafale production will end up in 2019 with zero export orders while the Eurofighter will sell until 2035.
Well, we all know that marketing powerpoints always tend to twist a bit the reallity but this one is certainly over optimistic about the export potential of the Typhoon compare to the Rafale.

First, the Tranche 3B of the Eurofighter (124 aircrafts) is in very bad shape and will most probably be cut.
Then, the export prospects of the plane are certainly not as bright as the chart says : the probability to get orders from Japan and Korea is very thin (if not nil), and the risk that India and Switzerland go for the Rafale is quite high. Not to mention the UAE and Brazil where the Typhoon is not even considered at all.

In 2012 we should have a clearer view of the fighter market for the next 15 years and it could be very different from the Cassidian crystal ball forecasts as far as Rafale and Eurofighter are concerned..

Friday, October 21, 2011

The Switzerland Federal council should decide which aircraft to buy (Rafale, Eurofighter or Gripen) before the end of the year on the basis of a proposition submited by the Federal Defense Department (DDPS).

Meanwhile, the 3 contenders (Dassault, EADS and Saab) have been asked to update their proposal, made in 2009 before the end of October.
Since 2009, the exchange rate of the euro vis a vis the Swiss Franc and the Swedish Krona has droped by more than 17 %. The mechanical result is that the Rafale and the Eurofighter are now 17% cheaper than in 2009 whereas the Gripen price has remained more or less the same.

Therefore the principal advantage of the Gripen compare to the Rafale (the price gap) will probably suffer in the new quotations. One could also argue that if the selection process has been accelerated to take advantage of the favourable CHF/Euro exchange rate, the Gripen has already lost.
Furthermore, if the rumors about the Eurofighter being too expensive to match the Swiss budget despite the weak Euro prove to be true, this could mean that the Rafale will be in a very good position when the bids will be assessed.

Switzerland is expected to buy 22 new fighters in 2012 to replace her F-5 Tiger II

Thursday, October 20, 2011

(edited October 21st) Following the liberation of Sirte today, October 20th, an US Predator drone and 2 French Mirage (apparently a 2000D and a F1CR) would have stop a fleeing convoy with Hellfire missiles and GBU-12 bombs.

Colonel Gaddafi, would have took part in this convoy and would have been captured alive by Libyan NTC fighters but would have been killed (executed ?) later during a gun fight. .

The death of the Libyan dictator will probably mark the end of the war for NATO forces. According to the French Ministry of defense, no weapon were fired by the French Rafale and Mirage jets during the last 32 Air to Ground missions because of a lack of targets.... until this afternoon.

Paris, October 17th, when asked by the LCI TV journalist about the probability for a Rafale deal with the UAE, The French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet said "It is very high, It is very, very high" yet, adding that the deal is not done and that negociations are still going on between the manufacturer (Dassault), the UAE and the French state.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Paris, October 13, 2011
In July, the French air force and Naval aviation began operational
deployment of the infrared terminal guidance version (SBU-64) of the
Hammer IR AASM modular air-to-ground weapon.
Developed and produced by Sagem (Safran group), with French defense
procurement agency DGA acting as program manager, the Hammer AASM is a
family of air-to-ground weapons, comprising a guidance kit and range
augmentation kit fitted to standard bombs. This makes the AASM a
high-precision guided weapon with a range exceeding 60 kilometers.
The AASM IR version features a guidance kit with an infrared imager
in the nose cone, along with the standard hybrid GPS / inertial guidance
systems.
Following the initial deployment of the Hammer AASM, the French air
force and navy carried out the first firing tests of this version of the
AASM under combat conditions, all successful.
Adding infrared terminal guidance to the standard hybrid GPS/inertial
version of the AASM, the Hammer IR proved to be particularly well
suited to precision strikes against targets with uncertain coordinates,
offering impact accuracy to within a few meters, even when GPS signals
were unavailable. Missions are planned using Sagem’s own SLPRM mission
planning and restitution system, already in service with the French air
force and Navy.
The AASM has already been deployed in foreign theaters of operation,
demonstrating its reliability and accuracy, including for long-range
missions. Actual operations have shown that it limits collateral damage,
and is able to handle high-value targets, previously reserved to cruise
missiles, while also neutralizing enemy air defenses from safe standoff
distance.
The GPS / inertial version of the AASM guided weapon, with 250 kg
bombs, has been in service with the French air force since 2008, and
with the French naval aviation since 2010.
A new version with laser terminal guidance, capable of engaging
moving targets, is now completing development. Following qualification
by the DGA, it will be delivered to French armed forces in 2012.

-------

Some 225 AASM were fired by the Rafale during the libyan campaign which is about 20% of the bombs used by the french Air Force and Navy

Thursday, October 13, 2011

A nice article by JM Guhl about the last Rafale systems (Damocles, Reco-NG, AASM...) can be read in the September issue of Nation Shield (UAE armed forces Magazine).
The pdf can be downloaded directly on their website

If you don't have done it yet, I recommend a visit to the MBDA image data base where several high res pictures of the Rafale B302 can be found.
They are of course related to the various weapons developed by the
company for the Rafale : Scalp-EG, Meteor, Mica etc. The B302 has been used by the CEAM (French Air Force trial center) to validate several weapon/systems configuations.
.