Possible Mega Default In China On Jan.31 Could Be Next “Lehman Brothers” Moment – Here’s Why

Did you know that financial institutions all over the world are warning that we could see a mega default on a very prominent high-yield investment product in China on January 31st? We are being told that this could lead to a cascading collapse of the shadow banking system in China which could potentially result in sky-high interest rates and a precipitous plunge in credit. It could be a Lehman Brothers moment for Asia and, since much of that “hot money” has flowed into stocks, bonds and real estate in the United States, that would be very bad news for the U.S. as well. [Let me explain.]

So says Michael Snyder (theeconomiccollapseblog.com) in edited excerpts from his original article** entitled The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – Global Financial Crisis Next?

[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Snyder goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

[First, some edited excerpts from an article by Gordon G. Chang as posted on Forbes.com under the title Mega Default In China Scheduled For January 31 as background on the potential for this mega default:]

“China’s growth since the end of 2008 has been dependent on ultra-loose credit first channeled through state banks, like ICBC and Construction Bank, and then through wealth management products (WMPs), which permitted the state banks to avoid credit risk. Any disruption in the flow of cash from investors to dodgy borrowers through WMPs would rock China with sky-high interest rates or a precipitous plunge in credit, probably both. The result? The best outcome would be decades of misery, what we saw in Japan after its bubble burst in the early 1990s.

Most analysts don’t worry about a WMP default. Their argument is that the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is encouraging a failure of the Zhenfu product to teach investors to appreciate risk and such lesson will improve the allocation of credit nationwide. Furthermore, they reason the central authorities would never allow a default to threaten the system.

Observers make the logical argument that “to have a market meltdown, you have to have a market” and China does not have one. Instead, Beijing technocrats dictate outcomes. That’s correct, but that is also why China is now heading to catastrophic failure.

Because Chinese leaders have the power to prevent corrections, they do so.

Because they do so, the underlying imbalances become larger.

Because the underlying imbalances become larger, the inevitable corrections are severe.

Downturns, which Beijing hates, are essential, allowing adjustments to be made while they are still relatively minor. The last year-on-year contraction in China’s gross domestic product, according to the official National Bureau of Statistics, occurred in 1976, the year Mao Zedong died.

Even if Beijing makes sure there is no default on January 31, we should not feel relief… There may have been 11 trillion yuan in WMPs at the end of last year and, at the same time, China’s money supply and credit are still expanding. Last year, the closely watched M2 increased by only 13.6%, down from 2012’s 13.8% growth. Optimists say China is getting its credit addiction under control, but that’s not correct. In fact, credit expanded by at least 20% last year as money poured into new channels not measured by traditional statistics. That appears to be in excess of credit expansion in 2012.

Even if credit expansion slowed last year, Silvercrest Asset Management’s Patrick Chovanec tells us why we should be concerned. “Looking purely at the decline in the year-on-year rate of credit expansion is kind of like arguing that if I chase my shot of vodka with a pint of beer, I’m actually exercising moderation because the alcohol proof level of my drinks is falling.”

Why will China’s next correction be historic in its severity? Because Chinese leaders will prevent adjustments until they no longer have the ability to do so. When they no longer have that ability, their system will simply fail. Then, there will be nothing they can do to prevent the free-fall. We are almost at that critical point – a WMP default could devastate the Chinese banking system and the larger economy as well…”

Private Debt Bubble In China Is Unlike Anything the World Has Ever Seen

The bubble of private debt that we have seen inflate in China since the Lehman crisis is unlike anything that the world has ever seen. Never before has so much private debt been accumulated in such a short period of time. All of this debt has helped fuel tremendous economic growth in China, but now a whole bunch of Chinese companies are realizing that they have gotten in way, way over their heads…

Will a default event in China on January 31st be the next “Lehman Brothers moment” or will it be something else? In the end, it doesn’t really matter. The truth is that what has been going on in the global financial system is completely and totally unsustainable, and it is inevitable that it is all going to come horribly crashing down at some point during the next few years. It is just a matter of time.

Chinese investors avoided a high-profile trust default on Monday, easing worries that the economy may be about to tip the first domino of shadow banking defaults.

China Credit Trust reached a last-minute deal with investors to repay their investment in the 3 billion yuan (US$500 million) product, deflating concerns that a default would pound investor confidence in shadow banking and trigger a credit crunch.

(Source: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx)

[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

(The articles posted on munKNEE.com deliberately present a diverse perspective on subjects discussed. Below are links, with introductory paragraphs, to a variety of related articles designed to help you become truly informed regarding both sides of the issues so that you can assess the merits of all points of view and come to your own conclusion.)

When it comes to reckless money creation, China is the king. Over the past five years Chinese bank assets have been fueled by the greatest private debt binge that the world has ever seen. Unfortunately for China (and for the rest of us), there are lots of signs that the gigantic debt bubble in China is about to burst, and when that does happen the entire world is going to feel the pain. Let me explain. Read More »

These 5 red flags will give you anywhere from a few days to a few months of warning that things are about to change drastically…and well before those around you grasp the full extent of what is going on. This is hopefully a scenario that never happens as this will truly be the end of the world as you knew it. Read More »

Is there going to be another crisis? Of course there is. The liberalised global financial system remains intact and unregulated, if a little battered…The question therefore becomes one of timing: when will the next crash happen? To that I offer the tentative answer: it may be imminent…[This article puts forth my explanation as to why that will likely be the case.] Read More »

An inevitable economic collapse has been warned about since this website began over four years ago.based on the following 3 key economic points that have been consistent since its beginning. Here they are: Read More »

2 comments

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Despite what happens to China’s market on 01/31/14, sooner or later some event will start an avalanche of sell orders that our super fact computers will be only too happy to execute, while at the same time everyone will be trying to reposition their assets in order to profit from the skyrocketing value of PM’s, causing a global PM shortage which will only make PM’s value rise even higher.

I believe we will also see many market closed for extended periods as Governments and their Central Banks struggle to convince their investors that the issuance of ever more paper money will somehow provide a safe haven until things settle down.

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