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An Iran-Saudi War?

Tensions have been mounting in the Middle East. The “Qatarstrophe”
has cut off Qatar from the rest of the Gulf States, and has sent Qatari
stocks tumbling. It also has pitted Iran and Saudi Arabia on opposing
sides of yet another potential flare up, which could have grave
consequences for the rest of the region.

Tensions
between Saudi Arabia and Iran are not just limited to the attack in
Tehran. The war in Yemen is largely considered to be a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran,
fought between Shia, Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the Sunni,
Saudi-backed rebels. The Syrian civil war can also be considered a proxy
war between the Saudis and Iran, with Iran backing Assad and his Shia
government, while Saudi Arabia backs Sunni rebels.

A direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be absolutely devastating, horrific, and destructive. Iran has nearly twice Saudi Arabia’s manpower,
and has a numerical advantage in most weapon systems. However, Saudi
Arabia has more aircraft, and spends nearly 10 times more on defense
than Iran. The two powers have one country separating them: Iraq-and
with the chaos in Iraq, no country wants to enter Iraq and deal with the
near-anarchic, terror laden war zone that is Iraq. Instead, it would
likely be an amphibious invasion across the Persian Gulf, along with
regular bombings and cruise missile strikes.

Iran, however, would never try to invade Saudi Arabia. After the disastrous Iranian counter-attack in the Iran-Iraq war which killed hundreds of thousands of Iranians,
Iran grew wary of regional conquest. Instead, Iran now funds Shia
groups across the region, such as Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. Saudi
Arabia, meanwhile, does not have the manpower to invade Iran. The
Saudis had a first-hand view of the Iran-Iraq war, and do not want to
repeat the mistake that the Iraqis made.

Instead,
the future of the Middle East is likely going to be more and more proxy
conflicts between Iran and the Saudis. Iran may try and create an
uprising in the majority Shia Bahrain,
or attempt to make Iraq a Shia state by instigating a rebellion among
Iraq’s majority Shiite population. Similarly, Saudi Arabia will continue
its attempt to have its Syrian Sunni rebels overthrow Assad’s Shiite
regime, and keep Sunni power in Bahrain and Yemen.

The
US has a thin line to walk. On one hand, it must honor its alliance
with Saudi Arabia. However, the US must not give the Saudi’s unequivocal
support. If Saudi Arabia is empowered, it could fuel more sectarian
violence. On the other hand, the US must keep Iran’s power in check and
stop Iran from gaining more puppet states, while still maintaining the
ability to negotiate with Iran. Failure to do this will only result in
more wars, bloodshed, and regional chaos.