Turbulence and institutional changes within the international Society:
an historical perspective
Our inquiry has its origins in the acknowledgement that the current international society appears, more than ever, deficient and lacking legitimacy in its management of emerging threats which affect its security. This dissertation aims to verify whether the present difficulties to manage the interstate order are precursors of a period of systemic turbulences.
We propose as our principal research hypothesis that a loss of legitimacy within the law and order mechanisms of a Westphalian society will generate a rather long period of systemic turbulences, creating a return to an antihegemonic system characterized by the establishment of a new a new system of societal law and order.
To test this hypothesis, we have joined the theoretical framework of the English School which observes the interstate relations by assessing the character of the order that governs them. Its followers succeed in studying the forces that create the maintenance of an antihegemonic international environment, and the nature of the interstate reciprocities that emerge from it. Then, by observing the institutions created to manage the law and order, they are in a position to better understand the evolution, the diffusion and the perpetuation of a society of States. This approach allows us to construct an explanatory model of our societal dynamic.
In order to answer our initial query, we propose to analyse the status of various international societies from different epochs, each one containing a period of systemic turbulences followed by the return of societal regime. We intend to establish if any analogies can be drawn between their transformative processes, and thus determine whether these processes can be applied to the transformations taking place within the current international society. An historical comparative analysis proves to be an appropriate tool for our type of research. The periods selected for this research are the Thirty Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, and the First World War including the ‘inter-war’ period.
The antihegemonic nature of a society of States, in addition to maintaining an anarchic environment, creates a climate of rivalries which generate transformation within the law and order dynamic. This transformative factor was introduced under the concept of societal progress, which generates, within the societal law and order mechanisms, institutional obsolescence that can create a period of systemic turbulences. To observe this phenomenon, we have adopted institutions as analytical tools. Institutions will allow us to be more critical, and will facilitate comparisons between them, considering their longevity.
Our findings indicate the existence of a lasting dynamic of transformation within Westphalian societies, generating levels of societal turbulences, which vary according to their intensity.
We also observed that despite the legal equality that sovereignty provides in a society of States, the Great powers remain the principal architects of their society. Their innate aptitude toward unilateralism was often associated with the emergence of systemic turbulence. Our research shows that interstate interdependence and cooperation were also fuelled by the expansion of a liberal economy. In a societal environment, as interdependence and multilateralism intensify, the propensity for societal progress is more inclined to take the aspect of a progressive type of systemic transformation than of a period of violent revolutionary systemic turbulence.
Our international society of States has always been under the influence of societal progress since its inception. Stability of its future is tied to its ability to counter external threats and that of the Great powers’ capacity to limit their propensity to unilateralism. Law and order mechanisms must then be able to integrate societal progress to allow the maintenance of legitimacy and the avoidance of a revolutionary systemic transformation period.