Friday, November 16, 2012

Israel's latest Gaza attack could spiral out of control

An extreme act, such as Israel's assassination of Hamas military chief, Ahmed Al-Jabari invites extreme consequences. These are now threatened by Gaza militants who vow to resume the suicide bombings that terrorized Israeli cities a decade or more ago.

Israel's most recent conflicts- Operation Cast Lead in Gaza in 2008 and Lebanon in 2006 is pitted with mis calculation about the capabilities of the enemy, has ability to inflict real pain and the length of time needed to subdue him. Cast Lead was dressed up as a victory that entailed sever, lasting political and diplomatic consequences for Israel without achieving its primary military objective, defanging of Hamas.

Ostensibly learning from the past errors, Barak, the Israeli defense minister, defined the operation's aim this time around. He said, sought to strengthen deterrence deplete the Hamas rocket infrastructure, damage Hamas and other terror organizations, and minimize harm to Israel". But looked at closely, these are vague objectives.

Hamas knows that Israel does not want to topple the regime entirely and usher in an era of chaos in Gaza, and Israel knows that it is very difficult to score points against a terror organization reared on ethos of suicide and dispersed among one of the most densely populated civilians in the world.

Netanyahu, who cultivates a strong man image, will seek re-election in January. He is striving to impress Israeli voters with a decisive blow against Hamas, and cannot now desist until such a blow has been demonstrably delivered. Netanyahu's war may actually end up bolstering Hamas in Gaza, or alternatively cause it splinter and loss ground to more Jihadis groups.