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Sports betting with ‘The Philly Godfather’: Take your chances on the Raiders and Broncos in Week 6

Each Friday for
PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his
gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro
and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s
hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his
own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.

NFL Week 6

Baltimore Ravens at
Tennessee Titans, 4:25 p.m. Sunday

(Games 273 & 274
on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Titans
minus-2.5/Total: 42

What is the line
telling you: The oddsmakers and offshore books opened with the Titans being
a pick’em. We immediately saw the wise guys attack the soft early betting
limits. The overall money wager has been a 50-50 split. The Ravens have a
little revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans last year, even after
out-gaining the Titans by 84 yards. They have identical 3-2 records going into
this matchup. Looking at the point differential, the Titans are a plus-1, while
the Ravens come into this game with the largest point differential in the AFC
(plus-55) and the second-best behind the Los Angeles Rams (plus-75). Looking at
the metrics, the Ravens rank eight spots higher in overall defensive efficiency
and 21 spots higher in defending the run and rank first in the league in
opponent-yards-per-play. The Ravens have only given up nine points in the
fourth quarter all year. On the offensive side, both teams are having problems
moving the ball. Ravens come in ranked 27th and the Titans 29th in
yards-per-play.

Bottom line: The
smart money likes the Ravens plus-3 or better and the under.

Los Angeles Rams at
Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. Sunday

(Games 269 & 270
on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Rams
minus-7/Total: 52

What is the line
telling you: Oddsmakers and offshore books opened with the Rams being a
7-point road favorite with a combined total of 53. The oddsmakers and Vegas
sportsbooks have been unwilling to come off that key number of seven. The early
market reports are showing a ton of love for the Rams, who started off the
season 3-0 vs. the Vegas spread. Since then, the market seems to have caught up
to them. They got a push against the Vikings and almost lost outright as a
7-point favorite to Seattle. Vegas is beginning to get a pulse on how good this
team really is. They were undervalued going into the season, and now Vegas has
pretty much pegged them. Most pro bettors like this game at 4, 4.5 points,
which tells you the oddsmakers are making the recreational bettor pay a premium
on an inflated price. The Rams have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL,
ranked 25th in sack rate, Denver’s offense which is Top 10 in yards-per-play,
can keep up with the Rams at home.

Bottom line: The
smart money likes the Broncos plus-7.

Kansas City Chiefs at
New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m. Sunday

(Games 275 & 276
on the sports betting screen)

The Line:
Patriots minus-3.5/Total: 60

What is the line
telling you: The oddsmakers and offshore opened this line as the Patriots
being a 3-point favorite. The total currently sits at 60. Kansas City is 5-0
vs. the spread. The early market reports had 60-percent of the money being
placed on Kansas City. Most of the recreational money is on Kansas City, but
the sharp money and offshore bigger bets like the Patriots.Anytime you see that, you have to be really leery. Usually, the market catches up to teams like Kansas City.

Bottom line: The
smart money likes the Patriots minus-3.5 and the under. Wait until game time to
bet the under.