Boundary changes: Major. The old Regent`s Park and Kensington North seat loses all of its Kensington wards as part of the re-organisation of seats in west central London, instead gaining Lancaster Gate and Bayswater from Cities of London and Westminster.

Profile: A recreation of the Westminster North seat that existed between 1983 and 1997, replacing the old Regent`s Park and Kensington North seat. While Westminster is popularly associated with highly expensive residential areas like Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Belgravia, this seat contains the far more deprived areas from the north of the Borough, as well as some more desirable and deeply Conservative areas that between them make it a key marginal. While the Westminster wards that make up Cities of London and Westminster to the south all return full slates of Tory coucillors, all four Labour wards on Westminster borough council are found in this seat.

The Conservative parts of Westminster North include Regent`s Park in the east, which contains London Zoo and the London Central Mosque, the wealthy spacious properties in St John`s Wood near Lord`s cricket ground and in Little Venice, the expensive flats and apartments of Bayswater, with its Arab, Brazilian and Greek communities. Labour strength is in the council estates and social housing projects, for as well as the elegant terraces and squares, there are also tower blocks and deprivation, homelessness and sub-standard private rental housing. Labour`s strength lies in the Lisson Grove estate and and in the more cosmopolitan areas towards the north-west of the sea like West Kilburn, Paddington and Westbourne Green.

Current MP: Karen Buck(Labour) born 1958, Castlederg, County Tyrone. Educated at Chelmsford High School and the LSE. Former charity, local government and Labour party officer. Westminster councillor from 1990-1997. First elected as MP for Regent`s Park and Kensington North in 1997. Rejected an appointment as a government whip in 2001, but joined the government as a junior transport minister between 2005-2007 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates: Joanne Cash (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister, specialising in defamation, employment, contempt, copyright and privacy. Karen Buck(Labour) born 1958, Castlederg, County Tyrone. Educated at Chelmsford High School and the LSE. Former charity, local government and Labour party officer. Westminster councillor from 1990-1997. First elected as MP for Regent`s Park and Kensington North in 1997. Rejected an appointment as a government whip in 2001, but joined the government as a junior transport minister between 2005-2007 (more information at They work for you)Mark Blackburn (Liberal Democrat) Educated at the LSE. Small businessman who sold his show retail business in 2007.Tristan James Law Smith (Green) born 1975. Educated at Dulwich College and the School of Oriental and African Studies. Contested the Cities of London and Westminster in 2005. Jasna Badzak (UKIP) Stephen Curry (BNP)Edward Roseman (English Democrat) Gabriela Fajardo (Christian Party) Abby Dharamsey (Independent)Ali Bahaijoub (Independent)

I’d have thought it more likely that Labour would have been closest in Maida Vale out of the Tory held wards. I can’t imagine where in Regent’s Park Labour would have a decent amount of support although they do win the Regent’s Park ward in Camden quite easily.

“I was wondering which wards voted Tory locally and for Labour in the general election.”

Why do you assume that any wards must have done so? I don’t think any did although AKMD is right that Maida Vale would have been closest. The Conservatives most likely carrried all six wards that they carry locally but by only a few hundred in the case of Little Venice, Maida Vale and Bayswater while Labour were leading by 1500-2000 in Queens Park, Harrow Road and Westbourne. Also turnout was higher in the Labour wards.

Labour were able to hold this seat primarily by running up high turnouts and high vote shares of 60-70% in their four safe wards.

There will have been some voters in those wards who voted Tory in the local elections and Labour for the general election, as there will have been in the Tory wards too. But nowhere near enough that Little Venice, Regents Park, Bayswater or Lancaster Gate could have voted Labour. Maida Vale would have been close as AKMD says, but I expect the Tories were still ahead there too.

The Tories have 2 wards (Abbey Road and Regents Park) where they get 50-60% of the vote and 4 where they get 40-50% (Maida Vale, Bayswater, Lancaster Gate and Little Venice). Mathematically that means Labour can still win if it gets 60-70% in its 4 wards even if it doesn’t win any of the others.

I thought at first that Karen Buck had been ahead in Maida Vale but I then realised Pete was right (in 2010, as he still is now). There was ticket-splitting, but not enough to make a Tory ward vote Labour. The desperation of Labour voters in the 4 safe wards to beat the Tory candidate was enough to engender a turnout which allowed Labour to win