In every election contest, there are always signs hinting at the electorate's mood. For Labor hardheads who tried in vain to reclaim the seat of Melbourne, there were several.

First came the street stalls and doorknocking, when many voters had already made up their minds not to back Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd.

Then came the last few days of the campaign, when ALP research showed Greens MP Adam Bandt was on track to beat Labor candidate Cath Bowtell - even with Liberal preferences directed against him.

And finally, election day. Political parties often sense how they're faring by the rate at which constituents pick up how-to-vote cards. As one Labor insider told The Sunday Age: "It was grim."

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In the end, Bandt defied the odds and held on to his seat, even as support for the Greens fell nationally. While Labor's primary vote in Melbourne dropped to a devastating 27 per cent, Bandt's increased to 42 per cent - up from 36 per cent at the last election.

Back at Spring Street, both parties are still pondering the result, and what it could mean for the inner city at next year's state election.

For years, the Greens have eyed off the Victorian lower house seats of Richmond, Melbourne, Brunswick and Northcote, all of which are held by Labor. And for years, despite a lot of hype and rhetoric, their candidates have fallen short.

Bandt is hopeful this time could be different. "People have now seen us in action," he said shortly after claiming victory last weekend. "They've judged us well in Melbourne, and I think that bodes well for the state election."

Others might call it wishful thinking. There's no doubt Bandt ran a clever, high-profile, and occasionally negative campaign, painting the major parties as "old" and "the same" while pitching himself as a progressive voice "standing up for what matters".

But that campaign was based on several factors unlikely to play out in a state contest: asylum seekers, university cuts, the carbon tax, and leadership ructions, to name but a few.

Also, the Greens in Melbourne were cashed-up and well-resourced, outspending Labor by at least four-to-one. By the time polling booths opened last Saturday, Bandt reckons his supporters had doorknocked more than 46,000 homes and made more than 23,000 phone calls. It is estimated the Greens spent between $600,000 and $1 million buying front-page advertisements, prime-time television space and massive billboards across the city. Unknown candidates running for the Victorian Parliament won't be getting the same kind of financial support.

And therein lies another factor: the value of incumbency. To Labor's chagrin, the shotgun marriage with the Gillard government gave legitimacy to the Greens' 2010 election slogan: "your vote is powerful". Indeed, much of the financial backing Bandt enjoyed came from unions and supporters who donated because of what the Greens achieved by having a seat at the table. Now, as the sole Green MP in a lower house controlled by Tony Abbott, his power has diminished.

The Greens are nonetheless an optimistic bunch, and plan to campaign for the Victorian election with a three-pronged strategy centred on the Napthine government's $8 billion east-west link. The first step will involve using the power of the Senate to try to force the production of business case documents through Infrastructure Australia. The second step is to execute another "people-powered" campaign based on the Melbourne model, which worked so well federally. The third step? Urging voters to give the Greens the balance of power in the lower house so it can block the east-west tunnel in favour of a rail line to Doncaster.

You can almost hear the collective outrage from Labor MPs, sick of the Greens promising the world because they are unlikely to form government, and therefore won't have to deliver on their plans. As ALP vice-president and Brunswick MP Jane Garrett puts it: "They've spent the last few years claiming credit for Labor's achievements and hacking into us for not doing enough. Their aim is not to destroy the conservatives, but to destroy us, which only hurts the implementation of good, progressive policies."

Clearly, Victorian Labor is fed up, and MPs are already bracing themselves for a bare-knuckled street fight. In federal Melbourne, Cath Bowtell was a strong candidate, but her message was drowned out by Rudd's lurch to the right, unpopular cuts, and leadership paralysis. There was also a broader view within the party that tackling the Greens too aggressively could alienate many voters. State Labor won't be hamstrung in the same way.

Instead, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews will follow the template set at the Melbourne byelection last year, which painted the Greens as "commentators on the sidelines" and urged voters: "If you want to get rid of the government, vote for Labor." The Liberals didn't run a candidate in that contest, but Andrews still framed it as a choice between the ALP and the Coalition, based on fundamental issues such as education, health and social justice. Despite a swing to the Greens, Labor narrowly won. Progressive inner-city voters can expect another bruising battle in November 2014. As one senior strategist put it: "We'll effectively run the Melbourne byelection campaign - on steroids."