The Risk Today EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY USD/CHF

EurUsd Not much change to the outlook for EURUSD at the start of this week; the 2-week uptrend channel is still guiding the pair higher, but there have been no new highs beyond 1.3838 since Friday. Our bias is still bullish, so we note next resistance levels at 1.3861 (2 Feb high) and 1.3896 (61.8% fibonacci retracement of 1.5145 to 1.1876). Overall we remain confident in our medium term view that EURUSD has the support for an eventual challenge on the psychologically important 1.4000 level. First support is 1.3705 (24 Feb low), 1.3635 (last seen late on 22 Feb), 1.3528 (22 Feb low) and 1.3460 (15 & 16 Feb low). Indeed, we still feel that 1.3460 would be a decent area to add to longs, but would start to reconsider our bullish bias on a test of the neighbouring supports at 1.3428 (14 Feb low) and 1.3397 (20 Jan low).

GbpUsd The liquidation of GBPUSD longs at the end of last week sent us tumbling to lows of 1.6031 on Friday; briefly puncturing key 2-month uptrend support. The good news for bulls is that the sell-off did not threaten the crucial 1.6000 support level, and as such we have managed to rebound back above 1.6150 levels. Near term support is still eyed around 1.6070-75 (17 Feb low and lower edge of 2-month uptrend), with further levels around 1.6031 (Friday's low) and the aforementioned 1.6000 level. We would be forced to reconsider our bullish bias if we break below 1.6000 psychological support, but further supports are still eyed at 1.5965 (11 Feb low), 1.5823 (31 Jan low), 1.5751 (which caught the sell-off after the first GDP release), and 1.5718 (13 Jan low). On the topside, first resistance is 1.6060 (25 Feb high), then the longstanding 1.6300 resistance (4 Nov high), but if we can break higher then the route is cleared for a run at 1.6460 (19 Jan 2010 high) and 1.6515 (7 Dec high).

UsdJpy USDJPY continues to trade heavily in the face of ongoing Middle East tensions, testing its 81.62 lows yet again in the early Asian session (having first touched back on the 24 Feb). The low volatility in USDJPY over the past few months has left multiple technical support littering the downside; the next ones of note will be 81.13 (4 Feb low), 80.94 (31 Dec and 2 Jan lows), 80.54 (9 Nov low), 80.24 (31 Oct low) and then the all-time low of 79.75 from 1995. In the meantime, watch for resistance around 82.07 (25 Feb high), 82.85-90 (23 Feb rebound highs), 83.55 (18 & 21 Feb highs), 84.00 (roughly the 16 Feb high) and 84.40. That latter level managed to contain numerous rallies back on 29 Nov, 1 Dec, 2 Dec, 8 Dec, 13 Dec and 16 Dec - so it's likely to be a stubborn barrier.

UsdChf USDCHF experienced a short squeeze at the end of last week, taking the pair off the 0.9234 all-time lows and hitting a high of 0.9320 before relaxing back lower (0.9265 currently). We have gone short on the break below 0.9300 and now wait to see a test of 0.9200 and 0.9100 psychological supports. Really, there is not much discernible support under these conditions, but we hope to see a challenge on 0.9000 in the coming weeks. On the topside, sellers will probably start to precipitate around 0.9320 (Friday's rebound high), 0.9390 (23 Feb high), 0.9505 (22 Feb high), 0.9540 (18 Feb high), and 0.9600 (17 Feb high).

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