GIRO 2007 between Horace and a hard place

So, from the charm of Vienna in 2006, the behemoth of general insurance conferences shifted back to the UK. Newport was the destination of GIRO 2007, or more precisely, for those actuarially inclined, the Celtic Manor Resort the destination of the Ryder Cup in 2010. The General Insurance Research Organising (GIRO) convention brings together a wide diversity of general insurance actuaries: pricing, reserving, consultants, scholars, and recruitment consultants to mention but a few. Their combined mass reached 540 delegates, another record attendance. Clamouring for CPD, a twoand- a-half-day actuarial flight of fancy was concocted to cater for all. For those who believe that this translates to ‘death by PowerPoint’ please read on, you may find yourself surprised. Fore! GIRO 2007 teed off on Tuesday 2 October. With three championship golf courses on the venue’s doorstep this was an opportunity for many to take the morning off and spend a few hours ‘relaxing’ on potentially some of the most challenging courses in the UK. The first day preamble finished with drinks in the evening and a buffet dinner. Newcomers were invited and welcomed to a separate drinks reception. There was chatter that it would be akin to the freshers’ ball at university, where the second and third years use any excuse to gatecrash in order to assess what the future may hold. In reality it was a fine opportunity for first-timers to meet and befriend actuaries at similar stages in their careers with common interests. Identity crisis what do I do again? The opening plenary was looked upon with trepidation, a room full of around 500 actuaries is a lot of IQ, and expectations were high. The new chair of the GIRO convention, Darren Michaels, following on from Catherine Barton’s successful tenure, did not disappoint. The crowd was enthused by the GIRO ‘2-double-0-7’ gag, in reference to the forthcoming James Bond casino evening. Duncan Anderson reported on the progress of the General Insurance Premium Rating Issues Working Party, and was the first to plug the powerful use of the Wiki to build and share knowledge through the industry. Greg Taylor reported back on progress of his research into stochastic loss reserving based on a unified model of paid losses and case estimates. This research was aided by funding from the profession. If I had to infer who had drunk the most coffee prior to the morning plenary, my money would be on Jose Vazquez and Linley Ah Chung. They certainly stole the morning show, bubbling with energy and enthusiasm. Their exploration of the role of the actuary speculated across a wide range of disciplines. I found their take on actuaries infiltrating the board level at companies particularly interesting. I expect there to be progress in such avenues within general insurance over the coming years, especially as it is still very much a developing discipline. Following the opening plenary, the first installment of concurrent workshops began. Five concurrent workshop sessions consisting of a total of 55 separate workshops were held over the course of the convention. Delegates were each able to pick their preferred sessions, with a diverse range of subject matter at their disposal. Rating agencies in the dock Wednesday’s plenary sessions included some further discussion on Solvency II. Kathryn Morgan speculated that it could become a worldwide pandemic, with the rest of the world following Europe’s lead. Martin White and Ian Moran discussed the International Accounting Standards Board’s Accounting Proposals and Actuarial Practice. Lunch was followed by a potential banana skin of a session seemingly deliberately set up to invite controversy. Simon Martin discussed potential areas of development needed in the rating agency industry. His analysis and questions challenged the industry’s internal and external practices. This was neatly followed by Damir Bettini, a representative from Fitch. His response was eloquent but precise and gave a confident display of the rating agencies’ selfbelief in their business model. Mark Flower then reported back on the Reinsurance Counterparty Credit Risks Working Party’s achievements over the past year. The working party was later buoyed up by the news that they had won this year’s Brian Hey prize, which is presented to the best paper submitted with practical actuarial application; many congratulations to Mark and the working party. The plenary came to a close as Tony Jones provided some insight into the ongoing work of the General Insurance Reserving Oversight Committee. Tony also announced he will be standing down as chair of the committee, and thanked all those involved. Lis Gibson will be picking up the baton. The first full day closed with concurrent workshops. There were some interesting and hot topics mixed with some potentially ambiguous titles such as ‘Casualty catastrophes how well do you know them?’ (for which my preferred subtitle is ‘I never even touched the shredder honest guv!’) and ‘Up close and personal’. With brains full of all things actuarial, people sped back to their hotel rooms to prepare for the 007 casino evening, held in Liquid nightclub, Cardiff. A throng of delegates was shipped off to enjoy an evening of eating, gambling, drinking, and dancing. Among the notable guests were James Bond himself and his archrival Jaws (who gave me his business card so if you require an evil henchman for an upcoming event or dinner party, please get in contact). What carbon footprint? On Thursday morning there were two sessions of concurrent workshops, with subject matter including ‘Solvency II: QIS 3 and beyond’, ‘Irish issues’, ‘Reserving through the soft market how can actuaries do better?’, ‘Price monitoring for commercial insurers’, and ‘Practical experience with GN12’. These two sessions were bisected by a packed plenary, in which Darren Michaels and Colum D’Auria discussed the future of GIRO. Trevor Maynard and Graham Fulcher reported on the findings of the Climate Change Working Party. Sima Ruparelia informed delegates about the efforts to offset the environmental impact of GIRO. Delegates’ carbon emissions caused by travel to Newport and Sorrento next year will be offset, the delegates’ goody-bags were environmentally friendly, and even the free convention pens were made from cornstarch and treasured free GIRO pen melting in my hand; fortunately I have been assured it should last for another couple of years at least. James Orr and Steve Patfield discussed the Lighthill Risk Network, and Julian Leigh updated delegates on the work of the General Insurance Board. Horace Stick-In-The-Mud Arguably, the highlight of the conference was the final plenary on Thursday. The discussion on the exam structure touched on the new communications exam, practice modules going online, and exam dates being fixed year on year. Neil Hilary then introduced Horace Stick-In- The-Mud (aka Simon Sheaf), an actuary who wasn’t particularly open minded to change. His reaction to having two ST general insurance exams was that it is ‘the end of life as we know it’. He also waxed lyrical on the good old days when ‘actuaries just dealt with people dying’, and he backed up his well rounded judgement with a comment that he was still not convinced about ‘the benefits of electricity’. There were numerous other classic quotes followed by a short presentation on the OHP. Jeff Setter (aka Tom Harris) responded with a similarly amusing take on the exams. However, Jeff was from a more modern school of thought ‘a GI company is a bit like the Starship Enterprise’; and he took a more global approach ‘there are all sorts of exciting insurance places out there: Bermuda, London, New York, Norwich’. The plenary continued with a report from the Enterprise Risk Management Working Party, and an informative presentation by David Hindley on the new Continuing Professional Development regime. Camilla Bennett gave a timely reminder about the EU equality directive, and Julian Leigh informed delegates why they should look forward to ASTIN 2008 (touted as the best general insurance conference in the UK in 2008). The day’s events drew to a close with the final concurrent workshops session and an opportunity for delegates to sign up to working parties for 20078. Does anyone know what gala means? The bad news for those attending the final evening’s events was that the gala dinner was unfortunately cancelled as no one knew what ‘gala’ meant. It was replaced by a less catchy in name but identical in substance ‘drinks reception and convention dinner’. The wine flowed and a fantastic meal was put on. There was no need for a stand-up comic this year as no one could match Horace’s ramblings. Instead an authentic Welsh male voice choir sang the night away. An opportunity for guests to join in with the choir arose, with some eager beavers literally sprinting to get to the microphone. Peter Copeman was deservedly awarded the GIRO lifetime achievement award, one of which has been presented at each of the past six GIRO conventions. Peter’s name had been inadvertently mentioned numerous times during the conference, and it was revealed the presenters had a small wager on who could mention his name most often. Redundancy II and packed lunches The final day saw two plenary sessions to bring GIRO 2007 to a conclusion. There were talks on ‘An inconvenient uncertainty reserve ranges, are you doing the right thing?’, which included an informative stint from Rebecca Driver with her ‘rivers of blood’, which describe the predicted path of inflation, and insight into the Monetary Policy Committee. There were further talks on ‘ICA education and guidance update’, and from the Open Source ICA Model Working Party. The highlight of the first plenary was the presidential address from Institute president Nick Dumbreck. His presentation explored the consequences of removing the words ‘solvency’ and ‘capital’ and replacing them with ‘redundancy’ and ‘actuarial’, with outlandish results for the profession! The final plenary of GIRO 2007 was dominated by ‘ethicability’, run by occupational philosopher Roger Steare. He explored the boundaries of ethics and also put forward a business case for ethics. What would you do if cash machines were paying out ‘double bubble’? It appears the average actuarial answer is to give the money back, of course, unless there is a big queue in the bank. So from Vienna to Newport, and onwards to Sorrento, Italy here’s to another ground- and record-breaking GIRO, see you next year.