What I would tell Mr. Boudjenane (and Scott) is: there are more effective ways for the Liberals to oppose this and other Tory proposals than by forcing an election they would (most probably) lose. Kady "The Blogging Wonderbabe" O'Malley talks of some of the possible stratagems here. In brief, they involve a copious use of the fact that the Libs and other opposition parties have a majority on the various committees, including the Finance Committee where these proposals are (apparently) likely to wind-up. Once in committee, who knows what might be done to change, delay, or discredit them?

And of course in other cases the Libs Senate majority can be used to defuse dangerous legislation.

Now, people might argue that its better to win these things in a stand-up fight, but my opinion is that, at the end of the day, if some piece of junk law disappears in the Senate or is modified beyond recognition and then handed back to the ruling party, that's fine. Victory is Victory.

Because, no matter what you may have heard, Stephen Harper does not have a majority and is not governing as though he did. The Tory agenda as it has developed over the past couple of years is intensely minimalist, and is only about two-thirds accomplished. You want to see what a Tory majority looks like? Then rush into an election for which the Libs are ill-prepared and you may well get a chance.

My bet is it will look like Mike Harris writ large. Who wants that? Anyone? ANYONE???

You make it sound like I'm the only one out there that's calling for or urging this to happen.

It's not a completely unreasonable position to take but have a look around at the powerful interests jockeying for position...they're in complete disarray...who knows what they'll do right now if they see an opportunity for power?

Nothing is going to change substantively for the next year even if the Liberals won and a bit more time is needed for reality to assert itself for people to realise that all the posturing and grandiosity is irrelevant.

The Conservatives did a good job of turning-off Ontarians in the last few weeks...they'll find others to irritate because that's all they can do. I say, let them, for the next while.

It's fine to call for patience, but I would like someone to articulate how you achieve the winning conditions within this environment? Seems mostly to be about waiting for the unknown, but nobody seems to recognize the hard reality of reinforcing a negative impression. The new La Presse poll found Dion has lost another 3 points on the leadership question, going from abysmal to unheard of.

All I'm asking, tell me how it gets better? And, nobody should grab the "inside the beltway" security blanket, because the Conservatives 16% drop in Ontario over the past month proves that, yes, egads, people do notice things.

I don't think the Liberals can do anything much to improve their conditions all on their own.

Surely you must have noticed that Dion has been framed in a particular way and that the Conservatives will engage in any degree of churlish attacks and lying to maintain that frame. Dion and the Liberals have obviously decided to rise above that kind of thing, so we are not going to get much of a change in that direction.

You have to acknowledge that the Conservatives are not able to address the real issues with relation to governance (the only reason they've persisted this long is that conditions have been relatively advantageous for them...thanks to over a decade of Liberal governance and thanks to a base of hate-filled, idiotic rage-filled Conservative supporters), and are descending into a panic that is being manifested by increasing levels of shrillness and beligerence.

Looks good on them, and I think we should let them continue for a while longer. Many more people are simply becoming exhausted by the dreariness of the whole thing.

Again, waiting for the unknown, which is debatable. Our economy keeps surprising the pundits, just look at retail sales the past month, which was jaw dropping, or job growth, which baffled everyone. Some argue we have already hit bottom in Ontario, others say it may get worse, but what you say is just wishful thinking, nothing concrete moving forward.

A Liberal government with Dion cannot ever win.The problem is that there will likely be a lot of Liberal MPs who will also lose their job after the next election so the Grits are between a rock and a hard place. There is no mechanism to remove Dion until after an election.

"They used to say that elections are referendums on the state of the business cycle. I say let the Tories wear the business cycle for awhile."

Which will be cancelled out by our wearing egg on our face. The argument isn't logical, Harper will hang himself, but those same voters who turn, aren't paying attention to anything that casts us in a bad light. It's an inherent contradiction, you don't get it both ways. Voters never move to perceived weakness.

Prime Minister Harper is busy getting an island in Northern Quebec named after him, and welcoming more immigrants to Canada than Martin, Chretien, or Trudeau ever did, and is not available at this time for comment.

"But the Cons are gaining in both rural Ontario, the small cities, like Thunder Bay, and in the coveted 905 belt.

The internals show that. The larger sample press polls show that."

Um, no they don't. As a matter of fact, the Cons are below their 06 numbers. You're delusional at the moment my friend. There is no breakthrough in Ontario when you are down to your core 30% number, in fact there are LOSES.

and letting the public "get to know" Dion a little better, you may wish to consider the fact that those who know him best appear to like him least. He's hated in his native province, and he wasn't well liked among the MP caucus during the convention, as per the voting.

Every polling outfit has shown the Cons fading in Ontario, in fact we are talking core support now. Their momentum has evaporated, which is why I believe things never get better than right now. Sure, the economy might go south, the degree debatable, but measuring the effect of that is hard, whereas we have a concrete situation right now, the Flah-Harp clusterfuck that blew up in their faces. I honestly believe this is a golden opportunity, because it's real, as opposed to might be's.

All this said, I've resigned myself to no election anytime soon, if it happens I'll be pleasantly surprised.

In times when general party affiliation is closely tied to voter intention they aren't bad. In times when there's significant voter apathy within a party (like the Conservative downfall under Kim Cambell - where the polls showed her down, but nowhere near the dismal results), press polls over count party support.

The reason being press polls don't drill down to voter intention, which is expensive.

Currently there is deep discontent/apathy within the Liberal party, and particularily for Dion himself. The Liberals are also concentrated in several urban ridings (in the Toronto area).

Keep telling yourself that, with NO PROOF to back it up. Here's the deal, which should be able to pierce your Con mind. If, internals were so positive, why did Harper come out and start praising McGuinty??? Harper never does anything, that isn't part of a strategy, in this case clearly damage control. And, you will notice, not one peep from Flaherty, Poll, anyone, since that press release. It's called backtracking Biff, and your intuitive powers should see that ;)

You're just spouting off, "sorry Steve, but the internals show". You've got nothing. I just heard yesterday that the Con candidate in Guelph, which is the next by-election, the "swing" seat, can't raise any money locally, the party is being forced to pour in money. If that doesn't tell there is a lack of momentum, I don't know what does.

You notice the registered "Biff" shows up just after BCL shuts off the anonymous commenting. You can pretty much guess who was doing all the sock-puppeting and trolling.

Given the disruption he's caused on so many progressive blogs, I don't think he should be allowed to comment on progressive blogs at all. I don't think Blogger permits you to ban registered users (does it?) but it should be something to think about.

I like the Biff nic, it really fits the visual. I guess Beavis was taken.

It's not amusing, Steve. He's a disruptive sock-puppet who alternates between reasonably sensible and ignorant and distracting (which is in fact his natural condition) just to prevent progressive discussions from going anywhere. He may think this all in fun, but it's not.

One thing he is is a liar: he'll pull facts straight out of his arse and fabricate any assertion he thinks will support whatever he's argument he's making.

I think it's been a disgrace that, as a whole, progressive bloggers have been willing to entertain that level of disruption for as long as they have.

On topic: Flanagan lays the bricks to comically inept push-poller Michael Adams in the Globe:To start with, Mr. Adams's facts are shaky. He claims the Conservatives were shut out of Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver in the last election. That may be true for the first two cities, but it applies only to the legally defined city of Vancouver, which makes up less than 30 per cent of the greater Vancouver area. In fact, the Tories won seven of 20 seats there, compared to eight for the Liberals and five for the NDP.

Moreover, the Conservatives won every seat in Calgary and Edmonton, seven of eight in Regina and Saskatoon, half of the seats in Winnipeg and Ottawa, all but two in Quebec City, and both seats in St. John's. These are important Canadian cities, not rural villages. [...]...The Liberals were dominant in Toronto, English-speaking Montreal, and downtown Vancouver - not because these are urban areas, but because they are heavily populated by ethnic groups who are Liberal core supporters. If the Liberals were truly the party of urban Canada, they would also sweep Calgary, Edmonton, Quebec City, etc. - but they aren't, and they don't.

[...]

Urbanites, in Mr. Adams's portrayal, are younger, see themselves as global citizens and feel connected to other countries, experience "greater comfort with change and complexity," love "seizing on new technologies," and are big on diversity. Needless to say, he depicts rural people as deficient in all these wonderful characteristics.

Mr. Adams's not-so-subtle subtext is that Conservatives aren't cool because they're not urban...

That's what I meant...Flanagan's work was embarrassing. Glad you agree.

Does Tom Flanagan give exceptionally good head or something? Every time he opens his mouth, the Conserva-boys go all gushy and weak in the knees.

Anyway, Albertans better nuke the University of Calgary soon before the rest of Canada decides to do it for them. It is a nest of Big Oil money and intellectual/moral corruption that needs to be obliterated.

No need to let your jealousy turn you all Wiebo Ludwig, try to channel it into something more positive, such reading one of Flanagan's many excellent books.

Did you know more people are leaving Alberta than moving there, for the first time since 1994?

"Alberta, which has led the provinces in population growth for the last few years, has started to lose more people to other regions than it has received.

Over the third quarter, Alberta recorded a net interprovincial migration outflow estimated at 3,300 people. The last time the province recorded a net outflow to other jurisdictions occurred in the fourth quarter of 1994."

"The Tory agenda as it has developed over the past couple of years is intensely minimalist..."

Really, BCL? Minimalist?

I see more years of misguided war. More years of inaction on global warming. Nearly $190-billion lost to tax cuts over six years. A permanent loss of $15-billion per year after that -- hobbling any future government's capacity to invest in social programs. All rubber-stamped by this Liberal caucus.

Turtling to wait for "winning conditions" is certainly a strategy. Folks like Scott and Steve have made a good case that it's a bad one -- and as a Dipper, I've found their integrity heartening. But if you still want to promote turtling as better for the long-term, it's hard to take you seriously until you admit and own the COSTS, which have already been punishing and permanent.

I don't know what characterises Flanagan more accurately ; the ahistorical and deceptive interpretation of reality that is typical of the neoconservative or the sheer dullness and solipsism that characterises American "head up yer arse" Republicanism.

It appears that BCL has confirmed it. Given that I would be the only person who would know about it (since BCL deleted it so fast).

I called the last by elections to within half a percentage point.

Both ridings - bang on.

I don't believe its my credibility that has some here so bothered, but precisely the opposite.

Ti-guy, you shouldn't fear me the way you do. I can't affect the election. Well not that much.

But as is now evident I do have information that you don't like very much, and for that I have been castigated by you (and Steve).

BTW, BCL I don't really feel that I need any lesson learned. At the time you had anon comments open, and so I passed on some information.

It is your readers who were denied, what is belatedly obvious, superior information about an upcoming election.

You deleted it. I suspect for the same reason ti-guy lashes out. I'm telling you something you don't want to hear.

You should listen to your colleague Scott.

If one were to plot the "likely liberal vote" on a graph since the inception of Dion's reign, it would look like a ski slope.

And the fundamentals are showing that it will only get worse.

Lucky for you all, Iggy's people are not about to let Rae get a foothold and are currently putting the finishing touches on a move to vote down Harper. Iggy's finally got Dion on side, and it appears all but inevitable this spring.

The only problem now is the Bloc and the NDP may want to wait it out till 09.

S/he always trolls, mostly lies, and really only posts in order to derail discussions.

If things were so rosey for the cons right now there would be an election. There is no way Harper would not call one if he honestly believed he could win a majority.

My personal opinion is that Harper is posturing for an election, not because he thinks he can win a majority, but because he knows the cons can afford to have another election in a few months, when the liberals clearly cannot.

If there were an election now there would be another minority government. Even if the libs formed that minority government, they would be forced back into an election long before they could afford one.

Gayle, quite honestly, I don't think Harper knows what the hell he's doing anymore. Remember, this guy has only had to fool Conservatives, who, let's face it, can support and maintain any illusions about reality as long as the economy allows that reality to be ignored. I really don't think he can pull that off much longer and Canadians do need to see neoconservatism fail on its own merits in order for it to be removed permanently from the politics of this country.