Evidence Synthesis by Building a Case (Workshop 2): Amalgamation and the Principle of Total Evidence

IAS Theme 2015/16: Evidence

Organised by Professor Julian Reiss (Durham University)

The Principle of Total Evidence is the recommendation to use all the available evidence when estimating the probability of a hypothesis (Carnap 1947). While seemingly uncontroversial, upon reflection the principle is more problematic than at first sight. On the one hand, it is, at least implicitly, denied by proponents of evidence-based approaches in the sciences: they recommend instead only to use evidence that has passed a certain quality threshold. On the other, what the principle really entails depends greatly on how to interpret ‘available’. Does it mean ‘known by the agent who makes the probability estimate’ or ‘known by the community of researchers’ or ‘knowable after a suitable search period’? Might it entail a demand to make new observations and experiments?