2014 promises to be the year when Stephen Harper’s energy policies will make or break him politically.

The prime minister has bet heavily on Alberta’s tarsands as key to Canada’s future prosperity; he has promoted proposed pipeline projects as essential if we are going to get bitumen from the tarsands to customers who want to buy it; and he and some of his cabinet ministers have implied that anyone who opposes these plans is close to treasonous.

But despite Harper’s best efforts, things aren’t going smoothly. And given what is on the horizon over the next year when it comes to energy projects, things could get even stickier for him.

There is quite a list: cabinet will soon have to make a decision on Enbridge’s contentious Northern Gateway pipeline in British Columbia; Barack Obama is likely to make a decision on TransCanada’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline which would deliver bitumen from Alberta to refineries in the Texas Gulf and has been stalled for six years; several First Nations are gearing up for court battles to stop proposed energy developments on their land; and opposition is heating up to TransCanada’s proposed West-East pipeline that would deliver oil from Alberta to Canada’s east coast.

All in all it looks like a politically volatile mix that could produce an explosion or two.

The most pressing problem for Harper is the Northern Gateway pipeline. Just before Christmas, the National Energy Board’s Joint Review Panel released its finding after six months of public hearings in small communities and cities in northern British Columbia and Alberta.

The NEB panel recommended approval as long as 209 conditions, most of which related to Aboriginal and environmental issues, are met. It is now up to the federal cabinet to accept or reject that recommendation. And given the strong opposition to this project in BC it is going to be fascinating to watch how Harper and company deal with this one.

Harper is also going to have to face a decision by President Obama on Keystone XL. Even if Obama approves it, there will likely be conditions attached and some of those conditions might have to do with reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the tarsands — something Harper has been loath to legislate ever since he became prime minister mainly because the oil industry doesn’t want him to.

Another decision regarding the oilsands was also delivered just before Christmas (a good time if you don’t want anyone to notice). Environment Canada gave the green light to a proposed expansion by Shell Canada of its Jackpine bitumen mine, 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray, despite serious reservations about environmental impacts.

But that didn’t deter Environment Minister Leona Aglukkaq and the rest of the federal cabinet from concluding that economic priorities trumped environmental concerns.

This project had received prior approval from a provincial/federal review panel despite findings that it would “likely have significant adverse environmental effects on wetlands, traditional plant potential areas, wetland-reliant species at risk, migratory birds that are wetland-reliant … and biodiversity.”

Soon after the decision was made public, the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, a community downstream from oilsands developments, announced it is going to court to fight the decision.

And then classic rocker Neil Young and jazz singer Diana Krall dove in announced benefit concerts in Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg and Toronto to raise money for the cause. The Calgary and Toronto concerts slated for mid-January are already sold out.

In northern BC Aboriginal groups have also let it be known that they are preparing to go to court in an effort to stop the Northern Gateway project from proceeding through their territories.

The stakes are high for the Harper government and the oilsands industry. And while the politics and economics of these projects are still seen by most Canadians as “western” issues, they are driving Harper’s national agenda.

Whether he can keep the show on the road, or not, will be the defining test of his time in the prime minister’s office.

Gillian Steward is a Calgary writer and journalist and former managing editor of the Calgary Herald. Her column usually appears on every other Tuesday.

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