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Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

I'm a train transport observer, myself. I've never seen so many empty railcars, trainloads of them, parked on sidings in the middle of nowhere, out of sight out of mind of general public. Been seeing that since back in October/November.

"life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by alevin

I'm a train transport observer, myself. I've never seen so many empty railcars, trainloads of them, parked on sidings in the middle of nowhere, out of sight out of mind of general public. Been seeing that since back in October/November.

I've got tracks back at the end of my property and there is train movement a couple times a day lately. I can't tell if the various cars are empty or full, but at times they have 3 engines in front. Once in awhile I see one in the middle of the line.

Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by alevin

I'm a train transport observer, myself. I've never seen so many empty railcars, trainloads of them, parked on sidings in the middle of nowhere, out of sight out of mind of general public. Been seeing that since back in October/November.

How do we find actual data on how railroads are performing? Are there charts anywhere that track train cars loaded, or perhaps income streams of actual railroads? How do I find actual railraod shipping hard data?

If trains are being sidelined, like we are seeing trucking taking a hit, those could also be very good indicators that the tide is turning.

The biggest railroad play, Union Pacific, is expected to report Thursday morning that it suffered a 10% drop in freight volumes in the quarter ended in December and lower earnings. Investors are fine with that. The stock (ticker: UNP) hit an all-time high last week of $185.

Wall Street has been enamored of freight trains lately, as the industry has widened profit margins with the cost-cutting programs espoused by the late leader of CSX (CSX), Hunter Harrison. So even as shipping volumes tanked last year, investors cheered announcements like last week’s earnings report by CSX, in which it said that revenue for the past quarter dropped 8% but costs reached a new low as a percentage of revenue.Across the board, railroad stocks are trading at record prices this month and above-market earnings multiples of at least 20-times this year’s expected earnings.

Freight traffic at Union Pacific fell even more than expected in the quarter ended in December, dropping 11% from the prior-year period, but the railroad’s fierce cost cuts brought in earnings only slightly below Wall Street’s forecasts. That may be enough for train fans to keep their faith in the country’s biggest rail stock, which hit an all time high this month despite its industry’s traffic funk.

In premarket trading Thursday, Union Pacific stock (ticker: UNP) was up 1.7% at $184, a bit below its record of $185.

Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by nasa1974

How are we shipping all these goods around the country then? Rail traffic down and the truck companies are hurting as well.

We aren't. that's the whole point.

Sales appear to be falling now with less goods being shipped- and therefore less goods being sold. We know that prices are not climbing- at least very little inflation showing anywhere. Just lower shipments of goods all around.

That's gotta show up in the market someplace very soon.

We have to have been working off inventory the last couple of months.

I don't know. I just took a look at a whole lot of statistics over at the St. Louis FRED site- that there ISN'T any data showing significant falling retail sales-it's mostly flat.

Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

Don't think anyone saying goods are not moving, just much lower volumes moving. consumers subsisting on debt getting tapped out on their cc's. I made a train traffic comment back years ago, circa recession or early post-recession, Birchtree of longtime tsptalk fame said noting abnormally low volumes of train traffic is a good indicator of the economy, even if anecdotal. My observation opportunities are along the UNP lines and the B&N lines. southern and eastern rail lines are different rrs, maybe different regional economies.

"life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard