Leaked Report Says War May Be Near in Mideast

New York--A secret Dec 10 report by an
eight-member Republican "Task Force on
Terrorism & Unconventional Warfare" of
the U.S. House of Representatives warns
the Middle East "may well be on the
verge of a major regional war."

The report details an ominous
level of unusual military maneuvers,
deployments and alliances in recent
months by Syria, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan
and other Arab states, in anticipation
of war with Israel.

It also reveals that Iran has
purchased "numerous" nuclear weapons
from "former Soviet Central Asia" and
that Pakistan also has nuclear weapons.
Whether they are operational, as the
report says Tehran is convinced, the
mere threat of their use could offset
Israel's own assumed nuclear deterrent
and thus create an "umbrella" for
conventional war.

The report, titled "Approaching
the New Cycle of Arab-Israeli
Fighting," was posted Jan. 22 on an
internet web site:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/. It
reportedly also has been mentioned in
recent days on Israeli radio.

When asked for comment, a
spokesman for Rep. Jim Saxton of New
Jersey, chairman of the task force,
confirmed the report is authentic but
it is still "secret". Its leak was an
apparent shock. "We were still in the
process of sharing it with the
appropriate agencies," the spokesman
said: "We were not ready to release it
to the public. I've been instructed not
to talk about it."

The report says mounting
frustration with the long-deadlocked
peace talks, rising Islamic
fundamentalism, anti-US sentiment and
waning fear of Israel's military might
all have contributed to this war mood.
The report says this all "makes a
dramatic breakout inevitable".

In recent weeks, various Platt's
sources have noted curious telltale
signs of war-worries in the oil
markets. The most obvious has been the
sharp runup in crude prices since mid-
1996, from $17/bbl to a high of almost
$27. Prices have eased in the past
week. But they remain at least
$1.50/bbl or more higher than warranted
by market fundamentals, according to
Mohammed Abdul Jabbar, senior economist
with Washington-based Petroleum Finance
Co. . . .