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CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat , Deputy Principal Officer, ,
U.S. Consulate Shanghai.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (C) Summary. During a March 21 lunch with DPO, Pol/Econ
Chief and Poloff, Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies
(SIEAS) Director Zhang Nianchi said Taiwan President Chen
Shui-bian now frequently crossed the Mainland's "red lines"
without penalty, making cross-strait relations more dangerous.
The so-called "status quo" had eroded seriously over the last
few years. The Mainland should not over-react to Chen's
statements, it was also important for both it and the USG to
respond appropriately when warranted. Meanwhile, Chen's
statements helped the PLA to increase its budget. Zhang
expected that an academic paper he would publish in early April
would spark debate by detailing the cumulative results of the
last 20 years of cross-strait relations. Zhang expected
cross-strait relations to be difficult through 2008, but
positive long-term. Ties were strengthening, both economically
and politically, at a high level between the Mainland and
Taiwan. There was no real successor for either Wang Daohan or
Koo Chen-fu, but neither was one needed. SIEAS had edited three
books of Wang Daohan's works, the latest of which was published
in Hong Kong in February. Zhang lamented SIEAS' lack of contact
with U.S. Taiwan scholars, but didn't appear to be taking any
steps to reach out. End Summary.
2. (C) DPO hosted a lunch for SIEAS Director Zhang Nianchi on
March 21 to discuss recent cross-Straits development. SIEAS
Deputy Director Hu Lingwei, SIEAS Department for Cross-Strait
Relationship Director Chen Yinghua, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff
also attended the lunch. Zhang was the assistant of recently
deceased cross-Straits guru Wang Daohan and a prominent Shanghai
Taiwan expert in his own right. See Reftel for a February
discussion on Taiwan with SIEAS.
------------------------------------
Not Reacting Condones Chen's Actions
------------------------------------
3. (C) Zhang was very concerned about the state of
cross-Straits relations. According to Zhang, Chen Shui-bian
appeared to have crossed several of Mainland China's red lines
without penalty. He alluded to Chen's recent "4 Wants, 1 No"
statements, as well as calls for referenda and 2006
announcements to "abolish" the National Unification Council and
the National Unification Guidelines, and the name changes of
Taiwan entities, particularly its postal system. Although, it
was clear that Chen was pushing this agenda for his own reasons
and did not have strong support among the Taiwan people, the
cumulated effect of these actions had eroded the "status quo"
and created a dangerous environment for cross-strait relations.
4. (C) While it was important for Beijing not to overreact to
Chen's statements as it had in the past, thus helping his cause,
the recent muted or lack of response by Beijing and Washington
seemed to condone Chen's actions. Perhaps, opined Zhang, the
Mainland should stop trying to treat Taiwan as a brother and
instead act more like a parent. Zhang expected to spark debate
on the issue with a paper to be published in early April
documenting the effects of the last 20 years of cross-strait
relations. He acknowledged that Chen's statements also had the
result of providing justification for an increase in China's
defense budget.
-------------
Bright Spots?
-------------
5. (C) Turning to the future of cross-strait relations, Zhang
was far less gloomy. The economic relationship continued to be a
bright spot in cross-Straits relations. There had been great
progress on the three-direct links issue; in reality, there were
already direct transportation links between Taiwan and the
Mainland. (Comment: Zhang appeared to be referencing the
periodic cross-Straits charter flights. End comment.) There
continued to be a large number of Taiwan businesses and
investors in the Mainland. In addition, the Mainland's economic
influence on Taiwan has grown significantly a growing mainland
economic presence on the island. This economic relationship
would have a positive effect on the overall relationship. Zhang
SHANGHAI 00000158 002 OF 002
said while he was pessimistic about the near term, he believed
that issues would be resolved in the long term as the economic
relationship grew and both sides become more integrated.
--------------------------------------------
No Wang Daohan Successor Available or Needed
--------------------------------------------
6. (C) When asked whether there was anyone on the Mainland who
would take up Wang Daohan's role in facilitating an unofficial
cross-strait dialogue, Zhang said there was no one who could
replace either the Mainland's Wang or Taiwan's Koo Chen-fu.
Furthermore, there was no need to replace them. High-level
officials were now directly engaged on Taiwan issues. For
example, President Hu Jintao had met with former KMT Chairman
Lian Zhan during his visit to China. Preparations were underway
now for LY Speaker Wang Jing-pyng's April visit to Beijing and
Hu Jintao would probably also be involved. On lower levels,
business associations and technical agencies such as airlines
were in direct contact. Zhang noted that SIEAS had recently
edited and published three books containing collected works on
Wang Daohan, the most recent published in Hong Kong in February.
(Tongji University Professor Peng Yun-O (aka Frank Peng) was
also working on memoirs of Wang, although his perspective dealt
more with domestic economic issues.)
--------------------------------------------- -------
SIEAS Remains Cut Off From Many U.S. Taiwan Scholars
--------------------------------------------- -------
7. (C) Although SIEAS appears to have close ties with academics
in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan, Zhang said it no longer had the
regular contact it once did with U.S. Taiwan scholars. Zhang
had no plans to travel to the United States and didn't seem to
encourage travel there by Hu or Chen. He said previously SIEAS
had met with many U.S. scholars referred by the Shanghai
Institute of International Studies (SIIS), but that had fallen
off in recent years. He hoped that the expected departure of
SIIS President Yu Xintian would change this situation. Zhang,
who said he was three years from the mandatory retirement age of
an academic of 65, appeared to maintain tight control over his
institute; he did not provide any opportunity for his colleagues
to participate in the discussion.
JARRETT

Raw content

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000158
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR WILDER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV, CH, TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI THINK TANK ON CROSS-STRAITS RELATIONS
REF: SHANGHAI 110
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat , Deputy Principal Officer, ,
U.S. Consulate Shanghai.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (C) Summary. During a March 21 lunch with DPO, Pol/Econ
Chief and Poloff, Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies
(SIEAS) Director Zhang Nianchi said Taiwan President Chen
Shui-bian now frequently crossed the Mainland's "red lines"
without penalty, making cross-strait relations more dangerous.
The so-called "status quo" had eroded seriously over the last
few years. The Mainland should not over-react to Chen's
statements, it was also important for both it and the USG to
respond appropriately when warranted. Meanwhile, Chen's
statements helped the PLA to increase its budget. Zhang
expected that an academic paper he would publish in early April
would spark debate by detailing the cumulative results of the
last 20 years of cross-strait relations. Zhang expected
cross-strait relations to be difficult through 2008, but
positive long-term. Ties were strengthening, both economically
and politically, at a high level between the Mainland and
Taiwan. There was no real successor for either Wang Daohan or
Koo Chen-fu, but neither was one needed. SIEAS had edited three
books of Wang Daohan's works, the latest of which was published
in Hong Kong in February. Zhang lamented SIEAS' lack of contact
with U.S. Taiwan scholars, but didn't appear to be taking any
steps to reach out. End Summary.
2. (C) DPO hosted a lunch for SIEAS Director Zhang Nianchi on
March 21 to discuss recent cross-Straits development. SIEAS
Deputy Director Hu Lingwei, SIEAS Department for Cross-Strait
Relationship Director Chen Yinghua, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff
also attended the lunch. Zhang was the assistant of recently
deceased cross-Straits guru Wang Daohan and a prominent Shanghai
Taiwan expert in his own right. See Reftel for a February
discussion on Taiwan with SIEAS.
------------------------------------
Not Reacting Condones Chen's Actions
------------------------------------
3. (C) Zhang was very concerned about the state of
cross-Straits relations. According to Zhang, Chen Shui-bian
appeared to have crossed several of Mainland China's red lines
without penalty. He alluded to Chen's recent "4 Wants, 1 No"
statements, as well as calls for referenda and 2006
announcements to "abolish" the National Unification Council and
the National Unification Guidelines, and the name changes of
Taiwan entities, particularly its postal system. Although, it
was clear that Chen was pushing this agenda for his own reasons
and did not have strong support among the Taiwan people, the
cumulated effect of these actions had eroded the "status quo"
and created a dangerous environment for cross-strait relations.
4. (C) While it was important for Beijing not to overreact to
Chen's statements as it had in the past, thus helping his cause,
the recent muted or lack of response by Beijing and Washington
seemed to condone Chen's actions. Perhaps, opined Zhang, the
Mainland should stop trying to treat Taiwan as a brother and
instead act more like a parent. Zhang expected to spark debate
on the issue with a paper to be published in early April
documenting the effects of the last 20 years of cross-strait
relations. He acknowledged that Chen's statements also had the
result of providing justification for an increase in China's
defense budget.
-------------
Bright Spots?
-------------
5. (C) Turning to the future of cross-strait relations, Zhang
was far less gloomy. The economic relationship continued to be a
bright spot in cross-Straits relations. There had been great
progress on the three-direct links issue; in reality, there were
already direct transportation links between Taiwan and the
Mainland. (Comment: Zhang appeared to be referencing the
periodic cross-Straits charter flights. End comment.) There
continued to be a large number of Taiwan businesses and
investors in the Mainland. In addition, the Mainland's economic
influence on Taiwan has grown significantly a growing mainland
economic presence on the island. This economic relationship
would have a positive effect on the overall relationship. Zhang
SHANGHAI 00000158 002 OF 002
said while he was pessimistic about the near term, he believed
that issues would be resolved in the long term as the economic
relationship grew and both sides become more integrated.
--------------------------------------------
No Wang Daohan Successor Available or Needed
--------------------------------------------
6. (C) When asked whether there was anyone on the Mainland who
would take up Wang Daohan's role in facilitating an unofficial
cross-strait dialogue, Zhang said there was no one who could
replace either the Mainland's Wang or Taiwan's Koo Chen-fu.
Furthermore, there was no need to replace them. High-level
officials were now directly engaged on Taiwan issues. For
example, President Hu Jintao had met with former KMT Chairman
Lian Zhan during his visit to China. Preparations were underway
now for LY Speaker Wang Jing-pyng's April visit to Beijing and
Hu Jintao would probably also be involved. On lower levels,
business associations and technical agencies such as airlines
were in direct contact. Zhang noted that SIEAS had recently
edited and published three books containing collected works on
Wang Daohan, the most recent published in Hong Kong in February.
(Tongji University Professor Peng Yun-O (aka Frank Peng) was
also working on memoirs of Wang, although his perspective dealt
more with domestic economic issues.)
--------------------------------------------- -------
SIEAS Remains Cut Off From Many U.S. Taiwan Scholars
--------------------------------------------- -------
7. (C) Although SIEAS appears to have close ties with academics
in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan, Zhang said it no longer had the
regular contact it once did with U.S. Taiwan scholars. Zhang
had no plans to travel to the United States and didn't seem to
encourage travel there by Hu or Chen. He said previously SIEAS
had met with many U.S. scholars referred by the Shanghai
Institute of International Studies (SIIS), but that had fallen
off in recent years. He hoped that the expected departure of
SIIS President Yu Xintian would change this situation. Zhang,
who said he was three years from the mandatory retirement age of
an academic of 65, appeared to maintain tight control over his
institute; he did not provide any opportunity for his colleagues
to participate in the discussion.
JARRETT