What once was the Democrats nightmare, the killing or capture of Osama bin Laden in the closing days of an election campaign, became their dream with a NATO official’s declaration that bin Laden is hiding in Northwest Pakistan. Democrats believe Osama’s capture would be the stunning type of event that could buoy House Democrats in the last week of the 2010 campaign, but it would probably not be enough to save the Democrats’ House majority.

While Democrats see glimmers of hope in stronger than expected Democratic turnout in early voting states and slight polling improvements, the evidence continues to point to Republicans control of the House of Representatives and a smaller Democratic Senate majority. Gallup’s October polling indicates a generic ballot advantage for Republican congressional candidates of 17 points among likely voters, which would likely result in an 80-seat Republican gain in the House, far above the current consensus forecast of a 50-55 seat turnover. If Gallup were right, even Osama’s capture would not turn the tide.

The Senate majority remains less predictable. To win a majority, Republicans would have to prevail in 10 of 11 competitive races for Democratic-held seats and hold their open seat in Kentucky. If the Gallup projection is on the mark, a Republican Senate is more probable that the forecasters’ anticipated Republican gain of 7 to 9 seats and a Democratic majority.

The prospects for post-election compromises to establish tax and spending policies in the Lame Duck or early in the 2011 congressional sessions appeared to dim with House Republican leader Mike Pence declaring, “There will be no compromise on stopping Democrats from growing government and raising taxes.” Without action on appropriations and tax policy in the next few months almost certainly requiring compromise, the government would shut down while every Americans’ taxes would go up &#151 hardly the beginning Republicans would want for their new majority.