Online auctions show more early demand for PS4 over Xbox One

eBay bidders driving higher markups, more auctions for Sony’s system.

When it comes to picking early winners or losers in the console wars, holiday season sales (or pre-sales) data is of limited use. There’s enough demand for both Sony and Microsoft’s new consoles that both companies will likely sell through whatever inventory they manage to put on store shelves before Christmas, as healthy pre-order data suggests. The company that pulls out to an early sales lead this year will likely be the one with better production and distribution capacity, not the one with any inherent long-term advantage in the marketplace.

But amid these inevitable sellouts, there is one way to get an idea of which console actually has more early demand behind it: the online resale market. There, Sony’s PlayStation 4 is seeing a slightly higher markup for launch-day pre-orders than the Xbox One, both in real dollar and percentage terms.

To figure out just how much demand was driving value for both systems, I headed over to eBay and started compiling sales price figures for completed auctions. To make sure it was an apples-to-apples comparison, I omitted any auctions that included additional bundled software or hardware past the core package and any systems that were not launch-day pre-orders. I looked at data for auctions finishing between October 20 and 26, inclusive, to smooth out any day-to-day variations stemming from when auctions were listed. I also ignored auctions that didn’t meet a reserve or Buy It Now price.

As you can see in the charts above, the results show that while pre-orders for both systems are seeing a healthy markup over MSRP, bidders are generally driving prices up more for the PS4 than the Xbox One. The median price for a PS4 pre-order on the site was $619.34, about 55 percent and $220 higher than Sony’s $400 asking price. An Xbox One pre-order, on the other hand, went for a median eBay price of $699.99, a 40 percent/$200 increase over Microsoft’s $500 MSRP.

Sony’s slight advantage in eBay markups was consistent across the distribution of eBay prices paid, both in dollar and percentage terms. The maximum auction price paid for both systems was $600 above the retail price, amounting to a 250 percent markup for the PS4 and a 210 percent markup for the Xbox One.

Higher eBay markups could suggest that there’s a bit more pent-up demand for the PS4 than the Xbox One, but it’s not the only explanation. Customers could also be responding to a smaller supply of secondhand pre-orders for the PS4 when compared to the Xbox One. The auctions I looked at don’t suggest that’s the case, though. On the contrary: the week I looked at had 521 successful PS4 auctions, compared with only 330 for the Xbox One. Both systems saw about 17 bids on each non-Buy-It-Now auction on average, suggesting that neither is driving substantially more frenzied bidding than the other.

It should be noted that despite the higher markups, eBayers ended up generally paying significantly less for a PS4 than an Xbox One, mainly thanks to the former system’s lower MSRP. It’s very possible that this initial pricing disparity explains some of the difference in eBay markups, as bidders might get more reluctant to buy as prices reach a certain threshold. It’s also important not to overstate the size of Sony’s “advantage” in aftermarket sales thus far, which only amounts to tens of dollars and a few percentage points on average.

Still, if you’re looking to read some early console-preference tea leaves, this is probably as close to hard data as you’re going to get. We’ll see if Sony’s apparent, slight advantage lasts into next year, when post-holiday sales numbers will show more concretely which company is attracting more interest from consumers once the launch-window hype passes.

75 Reader Comments

Why would you buy either over what retailers are selling for? I've never gotten that point....every console release this happens and people still buy them. that impulsive that you can't wait for retailers to restock up? I know...off topic a bit. And to the re-sellers equally, this seems like it would be a pain in the butt to do for a measly $200~ profit. I guess its all perspective.

Why would you buy either over what retailers are selling for? I've never gotten that point....every console release this happens and people still buy them. that impulsive that you can't wait for retailers to restock up? I know...off topic a bit. And to the re-sellers equally, this seems like it would be a pain in the butt to do for a measly $200~ profit. I guess its all perspective.

The best thing with some of these pre-orders and paying more for them is when you pay much more than street and get it later than someone who walks into the store and walks right out.

I pre ordered a release day ps4 when they were first available and I don't know why. Maybe its because I've had playstations since they first came out.

However, even with me buying them 'just because' I would NEVER buy em at more than retail price. If someone wanted one bad enough to pay double the price, why didn't they just order one earlier?

Do I need to craft financial scenarios wherein the buyer didn't have $400 several months ago, but has (and is willing to pay) $600 or $800 today? It's not hard.

Also, parents. It's possible these are being bought for people, and the purchaser didn't realize they "needed" to order months ago to get the launch day stock. If I make six figures, and my kid wants it at/near launch day, an extra couple hundred might be worth it to me.

My god, I didn't realize prices were that high. If anyone wants to buy my XB1 for $1000 they can have it!

While the % increase of msrp is significantly higher for the PS4, when you look at the actual $ Over MSRP the difference isn't quite so severe. I'm not really sure exactly what this means, but from a seller perspective you can make a slightly higher profit selling a PS4 over an XB1, although not a terribly significant amount.

I'm also curious to see if these numbers will even out by the end, as the PS4 release is closer people may be more interested now, but XB1 interest may come a week or two later.

Why would you buy either over what retailers are selling for? I've never gotten that point....every console release this happens and people still buy them. that impulsive that you can't wait for retailers to restock up? I know...off topic a bit. And to the re-sellers equally, this seems like it would be a pain in the butt to do for a measly $200~ profit. I guess its all perspective.

College kids with lots of time buy from store, sell to a rich family whose kid "really really wants the XBox One/PS4!", because there's a very real chance that none of them will be available on store shelves before Christmas.

And even if they were, hell if a parent with more money than time could be convinced to call every store in the city for three weeks straight to see if they can secure an XBox One/PS4, only to be told either, "We can't reserve one for you" or "First come, first serve, if you can make it down here in the next 10 minutes you might be able to get one."

Personally, I'd rather wait, but I'm old, grizzled, and jaded. And cheap.

I pre ordered a release day ps4 when they were first available and I don't know why. Maybe its because I've had playstations since they first came out.

However, even with me buying them 'just because' I would NEVER buy em at more than retail price. If someone wanted one bad enough to pay double the price, why didn't they just order one earlier?

Obviously they weren't paying enough attention. Pre-orders sold out very quickly across most retailers, so if you weren't on the ball, this is pretty much your only launch-day option, at this point.

Maybe there were more XB1 units available for Pre-Order than PS4 overall, which makes the PS4 harder to get at this point? This doesn't exactly prove more demand for one or the other at any place except for eBay. Garbage in = Garbage out.

Actually the interesting result here is that in % of MSRP the PS4 has higher auction values, but in real dollars the XB1 has higher auction values.

What this suggests is that people going through eBay have a limit on what they are willing to pay irrespective of the MSRP of the device. So while the PS4 is cheaper, people willing to pay an inflated price to get it as soon as possible are willing to pay about the same for either one.

If we really wanted to make comments on demand it would be necessary to look at the number of auctions (supply), and the number of bids, as well as the pricing.

Two problems with this: 1) The Xbox costs $100 more than the PS4, so that inherently skews any percentage-based comparison in Sony's favor.2) No numbers have been given as far as how many of each system were part of the "initial launch run".

Hopefully both Microsoft and Sony were smart enough to not have their entire initial run open to pre-orders, because many locations sold out of pre-orders in hours, if not days.

I pre ordered a release day ps4 when they were first available and I don't know why. Maybe its because I've had playstations since they first came out.

However, even with me buying them 'just because' I would NEVER buy em at more than retail price. If someone wanted one bad enough to pay double the price, why didn't they just order one earlier?

Do I need to craft financial scenarios wherein the buyer didn't have $400 several months ago, but has (and is willing to pay) $600 or $800 today? It's not hard.

Also, parents. It's possible these are being bought for people, and the purchaser didn't realize they "needed" to order months ago to get the launch day stock. If I make six figures, and my kid wants it at/near launch day, an extra couple hundred might be worth it to me.

And obviously some subset are just dumb.

No, that financial scenario doesn't work. If these people really have a money problem, then waiting for the lower price in the store a few weeks later makes much more sense.

People who buy this on eBay are seriously determined to get this before anyone else they know. Perhaps they couldn't get one in pre order, or didn't know they were offered there. Who knows?

I'd make a bet that the people buying these things on eBay aren't making six figures, trying to buy them for their kids. They're people who are obsessed with gaming, and who must have it NOW! Who knows what their income is, but they're likely male, and single.

Wow, you guys looked at these two charts and said "clearly there's more demand for PS4 over XB1"? There are so many economic factors missing from this analysis. All that can be safely said from these numbers is "there is demand for both the PS4 and XB1." Anything beyond that is just guessing.

I'm torn. PS4 is clearly the better device at the better price, but the games aren't really jumping out at me. Meanwhile Xbox One is a flawed box with some good ammunition.

Think about it though, the games issue is really only temporary. I was in the same boat in that I have maybe one game to play but I would prefer to have the better system and wait a couple months for games than pay more just to feed the instant gratification you will get by getting the Xbox 1.

Do I need to craft financial scenarios wherein the buyer didn't have $400 several months ago, but has (and is willing to pay) $600 or $800 today? It's not hard.

You don't pay for a pre-order until you get the console, and you can always cancel it. If you thought there was a chance you would want one pre-ordering as soon as orders were opened was the way to go.

Quote:

Also, parents.

Brand new consoles are not for kids. The prices are not aimed at kids and the games are not aimed at kids. These consoles will be aimed squarely at the core gaming demographic (adults aged 20-40) for a year at the least. More likely two years until the first price drop. It's been a long time since kids were the primary market for a non-Nintendo gaming console.

Two problems with this: 1) The Xbox costs $100 more than the PS4, so that inherently skews any percentage-based comparison in Sony's favor.2) No numbers have been given as far as how many of each system were part of the "initial launch run".

Hopefully both Microsoft and Sony were smart enough to not have their entire initial run open to pre-orders, because many locations sold out of pre-orders in hours, if not days.

I pre ordered a release day ps4 when they were first available and I don't know why. Maybe its because I've had playstations since they first came out.

However, even with me buying them 'just because' I would NEVER buy em at more than retail price. If someone wanted one bad enough to pay double the price, why didn't they just order one earlier?

Do I need to craft financial scenarios wherein the buyer didn't have $400 several months ago, but has (and is willing to pay) $600 or $800 today? It's not hard.

Also, parents. It's possible these are being bought for people, and the purchaser didn't realize they "needed" to order months ago to get the launch day stock. If I make six figures, and my kid wants it at/near launch day, an extra couple hundred might be worth it to me.

It's pretty obvious why the pre-order sales are so strong. People are looking to flip these on eBay. I expect the eBay price to crash pretty hard after release unless one or both of them screws up the supply chain like Nintendo did with the Wii.

All this shows is that the "demand" for the PS4 (in economist speak) is higher, pushing the relative value of the console higher than the market value at a greater rate than the Xbox.

It does not show demand for the PS4 is higher. It only shows that the customer value of a PS4 is higher than the customer value for a Xbox, relative to its MSRP. There's a lot of reasons this could be, either the number of listings or total preorders, or because the Xbox price effectively "pushes up" the ceiling on what people are willing to pay for a console though auction, etc.

I would have preferred a chart showing % over MSRP / total number of auctions, Price over MSRP / total number of auctions, along with a comparison between total number of ebay auctions. The higher the price people are paying over and the total number of sales could give us a good number to compare. Then, even though you don't have it, compare this to the total number of preorders for both consoles. Unless you have all that data... I'm not sure what good this article does.

Edit: Just to clarify that I'm really not trying to defend either console, and from what I've seen everywhere else, the PS4 does have higher demand, but some additional numbers in this analysis would have gone further toward making that conclusion, rather than just comparing auction prices.

I'm torn. PS4 is clearly the better device at the better price, but the games aren't really jumping out at me. Meanwhile Xbox One is a flawed box with some good ammunition.

If I were forced to make a prediction I think I'd be safe saying that, in the long run, it'll be the games that decide which console sells better.

I have always subscribed to that philosophy myself. But the move to x86 has me leaning the other way for the first time. I would argue that Microsoft's missteps, coupled with a perception Sony has become more friendly to gamers, will lead buyers toward Sony's camp this round. The games will be mostly the same on both platforms, and exclusives like Halo don't seem to have the same drawing power they once did. If anything, popular recent exclusives, like "The Last of Us", have been mostly in the Sony camp.

Sony has the more powerful hardware, costs less, and enables many online features for free. For instance, users don't have to pay Microsoft if all they want to do online is watch Netflix.

How much will that influence things? Well, as an example, I am not tied to Sony this round because the games aren't backward compatible. I am interested in purchasing a next gen console, and the cheaper PlayStation with the more powerful hardware, plus the fact I never game online but will likely use the console for services like Netflix, means the only solution I will consider is the PlayStation 4.

The chart would be more informative if it divided the bar values for each system by the relevant MSRP value, as that would be showing the price markup of both systems scaled to the correct frame of reference.

This was an interesting article. While I suspect that the author is right, there's really no way to know whether that's the case, or whether the demand curve for the PS4 is just steeper around the equilibrium price/quantity at launch. Sony may just not have as many PS4 as Microsoft does XBox, which may be generating higher bids on Ebay because there will be a higher ratio of consumers demanding the PS4 at any price relative to the number of PS4s available.

I will never ever understand the Must Have On Launch Day impulse for a new platform, much less the iron resolve that pays a 150% premium to satisfy said impulse. You get first-generation hardware with all the attendant bugs, and you only get to choose from a scattering of games, many of them rushed to be out exactly on launch day and all of them sold at the maximum retail price. All that and a price tag in the high three digits? Sign me up for something else.

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in Pittsburgh, PA.