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Friday, February 28

Good Friday everyone! Yes, it's very cold out there, but at least we have the sun! Highs will range from 10 to 15 here in Rochester, & the record low high of 12 set back in 1875 will probably stand, as it looks like we will likely sneak up to 13 or 14 later this afternoon. Thankfully, there is not much wind today, but still a bit of brisk breeze out of the west will keep our wind chill factor down around 0 for the remainder of this Friday.

The first day of March will be mainly quiet, brisk & much milder with sun fading behind increasing clouds & a little snow possible late in advance of a strong cold front. Highs should have no problem making it well into the 30s Saturday afternoon, which will feel so nice compared to what we've endured much of this week!

Saturday night should be pretty snowy, especially late into Sunday with snows likely tapering to lighter flurries off the lake during the afternoon. Between the cold front, lake enhancement & effect, I believe at least a few inches, if not a little more, especially up closer to the lake, will occur Saturday night & Sunday.

At this time, the storm Sunday night into Monday to the south looks like will leave us alone, but snow lovers I would not totally give up on it yet. Let's see how far south Saturday night/early Sunday's cold front makes it to the south. The further north it is the better our chances of seeing measurable snow from the storm. Again, though, as of now it looks like there's a better chance of us not seeing any snow than getting some, but it's still 2 to 3 days out. Stay tuned through the weekend for updates. Either way, it will turn unseasonably cold again Sunday through the majority of next week with a little lake snow possible, but much of next week looks quiet right now.

Have a great rest of your Friday & weekend bloggers!

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News 8 Weather

83 comments:

12Z EURO way south we get nothing. I agree with Snowdog who has been saying under 100 inches and the winter besides the cold is done. Snowdog is accurate that it has been a cold, cold winter but synoptic snow storms have been poor. LES areas did well as usual the majority not good.

None of the ensemble means show the cold going away anytime soon. It'll moderate for sure, but there are no signs whatsoever of any extended warmup.

I don't know where people keep getting the idea that we've done poorly on synoptic storms. We've had four over 6 inches and two over 10 inches, that is fairly typical if not a bit better than average. Look it up.

Those are the folks that unless we get 3-4 feet of snow in one storm, schools and businesses close, cars abandoned on 390, 490, and Thurway then we have done poorly. As I have said the measurement of snow at the airport has been incorrect, and we need to take into account the snow that others have received such as in Greece we have had over 100 inches of snow thus far, and more came last night and this morning. But the replied back was who cares about those who live outside of the City of Rochester.

CCCC you have to admit you held on far to long that this would come north. Come on admit that you are surprised it did not? Plus you call out RMA by saying he been to aggressive with his early calls. He has won this battle along with Snowdag. Maybe we will have another snow storm track challenge before winter is over. But looks like nothing there for at least a week.

I held on to it MAYBE coming north. Perhaps it was for a bit too long but I'm a patient person by nature. I did favor a more northern set of tracks at one point, but that died some time ago. Scott has definitely been too aggressive at times, he was with the Thanksgiving storm (twice, first he said it would be an out-to-seaster and then he said it would drop over 10 inches of snow) and again with the mid-month storm (he said it was done for sure and we got 2-4 inches of snow instead). I'm not trying to be overly critical here, just pointing out some examples. Obviously being a scientific guy he had sound reasoning for these calls, but IMHO he should've been a fair bit less convictive. Just my opinion though.

I don't care much for any "snow storm track challenge." I don't play this game to win, I play because I enjoy the ins and outs of meteorology. But it gets difficult to do so when people try to call the match before the final horn, which seems to happen way too much around here. That's when ol' FourNames McAllister starts to get cranky.

Anyone thinking we will end up below 100" is really shooting for an outlier.

We average 18" in March and April and the cold air will be around for at least 2-3 weeks. So odds are we will be at least average for March and April, which would put us over 100"

In 73 winters, we've only exited Feb 3 times with this much snow and ended up with less than 100". Two of those three years were when snow was well below Feb normals, so I don't see them looking like this year. The annual average when we exit Feb with between 81"-87" is 105".

This year looks a lot like 06-07 where we had 107", 07-08 whee we had 106", 89-90 where we had 106", 55-56 where we had 121".

Oh boy. I am going to get in trouble again. Yes, we have had some synoptic storms this year but we are still only at 82" officially, Whether that is accurate or not we will never know. The lake effect for Monroe county this year has not ben very impressive other wise we would be well over 100" officially like North of 104. We need 18" more inches to hit 100" and there looks to be nothing for at least 7 days after we miss this one this weekend. We will see but I am still saying less than 100".

Don't forget, we'll probably get at least a few inches later Saturday so it'll be more like 16 inches to go if that. True that the following week or so won't have very much activity, but it's not like our snow chances are suddenly nil after that point. This still has the look of a persistently cold month, and with our climatology it wouldn't take much to gain those 16 inches during that time. You can stick to your less than 100 call if you want, but I don't think it holds very much merit at the moment.

Blending the QPF outputs from all of the models and assuming 18:1 snow-water ratios on average yields a general 3-5 inch snowfall over the course of the weekend, with the majority occurring via the frontal passage. Ratios may end up different depending on the depth and location of the dendritic growth zone. As John mentioned, lake enhancement may play a role for some areas.

Skimming through the latest NWS discussion on my phone on the way back from class made me want to punt a human infant. Holy moly what an atrocious piece of garbage. It's like "let's mention 'light snow' for Saturday night and just leave it at that." One day away. Their very own automated QPF forecast supports at least 3 and a half inches of snow even with 10:1 ratios, so that's worth mentioning one would think. Even if it was less than that it should definitely go beyond the maddeningly vague "light snow." And speaking of ratios, I have no idea where such low snowfall amounts in the graphical forecast are coming from. For that much QPF to produce that little snow the ratios would have to be impossibly small, something on the order of 6:1 on average and 4:1 at minimum. Makes even less sense when one considers that not long ago they said snow growth should be "efficient." I could see small flakes being a problem if the dendritic growth zone turns out to be poor after all, but even then the ratios should be at least 8:1. That still supports 3 inches based on their QPF numbers. So either the QPF is overdone or the snowfall amounts are underdone, but the disconnect there is just baffling. So thank you, NWS, for getting me unreasonably annoyed about a largely inconsequential snow event.

Hilariously enough, if the 18z NAM verified we would see almost as much snow as the bulk of the Mid Atlantic region. Even closer on the 12z run with very little difference in our amounts between runs. Meanwhile the 18z GFS indicates much less snow for the Mid Atlantic than the 12z run, while keeping us about the same. Other models have experienced similar shifts. I am now solidly in schadenfreude mode.

CCCC have you seen the water vapor images for this storm that is off the pacific coast? This thing is huge! You think maybe models are having a hard with it because of its size? If the PV moves back or weakens will that not allow it to move north?

I'm sure we will still get very little from this storm but it is nice to see some don't give up that easy. At least there is still something to talk about. If I have to read snowdogg complain about getting less than 100 inches this year one more time I think I'm going to puke or go crazy.

Yes Farmington you are probably right we will get a few inches but you never know. Stranger things have happened in the past with storms. We have been not in the favorable track days before then bang we get smacked. This storm off the pacific coast is huge if you look at the water vapor think 975mb. Who knows maybe Titan can live up to his name and knock that PV back up north and the storm track goes through central Pa.

Definitely 4th and long. Coach CCCC should we go for it? I'm still in it even if it is just 2-3 inches. Maybe we score a safety instead of a TD. Points r points but snowdogg wants to run back a kickoff for a TD or nothing are all. Keep the faith dogg! Its all we have left.

Well we are only a little over 10 days away from the 21st anniversary of what I think is the mother of all storms "Superstorm 93". Man was that a monster and I believe it was as low as 960mb. Huge impact from Florida to Maine. In Syracuse 43 inches in 24 hours that is unreal! Never going to see one like that again in my lifetime.

I really wish I could've been old enough to remember that one, but sadly I was just a toddler. Truly the gold standard for eastern US cyclones, it has no equal and probably never will. Getting even a partial triple phase is like pulling teeth, but this one was fully phased. There have certainly been worse storms for certain areas, but this was the only one to have ever impacted so many people so substantially in one blow. Only an extraordinarily rare and unique meteorological setup could have led to such an outcome, and indeed it did.

It was incredible! I was in Syracuse and out during its peak and first time I experienced thunder and lightning snow. I mean that happening for 15 mins while I was shoveling. By the time you shoveled there was 3 inches back on the ground an hour later at its peak. People on this blog would go bonkers if we got something like that. But as you said CCCC this will not happen again a triple phase monster that had hurricane strength.

The storm being way south is old news now. Whether it misses by 40 miles or 150 miles, the result is the same for us. We still look good for at least a few inches from the front, which I will gladly take. I don't much care for the NAM QPF outputs because they've been bouncing around like crazy. We won't be seeing any crazy cold arctic outbreaks beyond next week, but spring will not be truly sprung for awhile.

I will say hats off to Snowdog as you did call the storm going S and E. Looks to be quiet for a few days but I'm seeing signs of a prolonged stretch of clipper-type LP's visiting our neck of the woods. I have a feeling that some of these are either going to phase with energy on the coast or push a little further south and grab some moisture and become more robust. I truly think we are going to get 1 or 2 more significant snowfalls before mid-March. This is based on more of a gut feeling with some model support. Time will tell!

We picked up a Quick 6+ inches in Hamlin last night through this morning. The LES was in high gear between 8 and 10, time for some lunch before back to plowing. This winter has been VERY SNOWY in Hamlin.

The upcoming week will probably have a similar look and feel as last week, maybe a bit less cold overall and with the lowest temps occurring earlier. Also more of a variable wind direction as opposed to a near constant westerly flow. One of those clippers could be enhanced but it feels like pulling teeth to get one of those to produce this season. I like the look of the following week for better precipitation chances simply due to the coldest air retreating, and also some model support. Right now there is really nothing specific to hone in on since that time frame is still in the typical model waffling phase.

That was a very weak front as expected. Barely picked up an inch in Western Wayne county. Not sure how Hamlin picked up 6" but hats off to someone picking up some snow. He is in the minority. The upcoming week looks very quite, just cold. Sorry I keep hearing week after week that the next week looks more active and that week comes and still nothing. I think March will be a quite month and storm chances minimal. We will see.

"Sorry I keep hearing week after week that the next week looks more active and that week comes and still nothing."

That's because the infernal polar vortex keeps coming back and giving us the screws. Now that it's finally beginning to yield we can see precipitation events inching closer to our region. Awfully bold call to say the entire month will be quiet just two days in. Not surprising at all coming from you though lol :P

Areas south and west of Rochester did much better with the front than areas north and east. My yard looked like it had about an inch and a half of new snow, maybe two inches, before limited sunshine began torching it away. Appeared to be a bit windswept as well so that number is probably off. John did say in the OP that lake enhancement could factor in, so it wouldn't surprise me if some lakeshore communities reached 6 or 7 inches.

The sun has disrupted the LES in Hamlin for now. It is still squalling with the sun shinning through heavy snow at times in North Hamlin. The sun has finally burnt the remaining snow off the roads, I should get a few hour break for now. I would not be surprised if the lakeshore gets a few more inches of snow tonight into the morning. It could also be snowy later in the week for lakeshore areas.

HP we are happy you are rolling in the dough with plowing every 3 inches that fall. Most of us have not received the amount you have but we are extremely happy for you to make tons of money and OT. Thanks for letting us know. By the way many can call Snowdog a complainer but he is absolutely right in regards to snowfall this winter. Disappointing for most. It has taught me that extreme cold hurts badly your chances for snowfall. The storms get stunted south and east. Also, I agree with Snowdog people get on here and talk about the pattern changes coming, the teleconnectics favoring a big storm, and all these phase changes. It is all mumbo jumbo. No one knows! So I wish people would stop saying next week, then next week, then next week because before you know it winter is over and those people say the pattern looked favorable. Look at this last storm there were areas for 8 straight runs going to get over a foot in Pa and NY and now a dusting. Please get on here when a storm is 2 days away and has potential. No more of the 5 ,7 ,10 and some of us 14 day projections it is annoying. I do not care if it is a blog and that is what blogs do. Sick of it not coming to fruition. I remember decades past where we got monster storms of 18-24 inches but not lately. That is where we live so get use to it! Hail to the Snowdog who actually has been right more than the great CCCC however it is all a guessing game. It amazes me that we have all these new weather instruments and models yet forecasts and predictions have seemed to get worse the last decade? Am I wrong? Except for RMA still on top of his game. Well enough for now and I will check and get excited when two days out someone probably CCCC says we are in line for a BIG storm.

"...but he is absolutely right in regards to snowfall this winter. Disappointing for most."Not if you were expecting average snowfall. Only weenies and bittercasters would expect anything else.

"It is all mumbo jumbo. No one knows!"No one is clairvoyant, but it goes way beyond "mumbo jumbo." We can use science and technology to arrive upon likely outcomes. Key word: LIKELY

"So I wish people would stop saying next week, then next week, then next week because before you know it winter is over and those people say the pattern looked favorable."Sometimes it has panned out (early February), other times not (early March). This isn't an exact science, and errors are made.

"Please get on here when a storm is 2 days away and has potential."I seriously doubt anyone will actually wait that long to come here and post about a storm potential. This is a weather blog and people will talk about any weather they can.

"No more of the 5 ,7 ,10 and some of us 14 day projections it is annoying."I haven't seen any 14 days projections, and very few 10 day projections. Besides, incessant whining is many times more annoying and somewhat more prevalent here.

"Sick of it not coming to fruition."Then stop getting your hopes up. This is strictly a "you" problem.

"I remember decades past where we got monster storms of 18-24 inches but not lately."February 2007 was seven years ago...

"...the great CCCC..."lol okay -_-

"...however it is all a guessing game."Educated guesses based on logic and evidence. Much different than throwing a dart blindfolded and dizzy.

"It amazes me that we have all these new weather instruments and models yet forecasts and predictions have seemed to get worse the last decade?"Things aren't always what they seem...

"I will check and get excited when two days out someone probably CCCC says we are in line for a BIG storm."You won't wait that long. And yes, it will probably be me lol. Please differentiate between "we are in line for" and "we have the potential for" as they have vastly different implications. You've see me use something in the neighborhood of the second phrase an awful lot, hint hint.

Wow for someone who is annoyed etc that post definitely sounded like complaining to me. Cry me a river. Invent something that changes the weather otherwise deal with it. We r passing the time and even if something doesn't pan out I'd rather listen to quad C about some possibilities than you and snowdogg crying on here like kids at the check out...I want I want I want a storm mommy!

Snowdog - you need to move into one of the classic snowbelts, otherwise you will never be happy.....as I've said before, come on out to Wayne County and I think you'll be crying a different tune. This has been the worst winter in ten years for me in Ontario - quantified by snow totals, brutal cold and wind.....

And global warming deniers. I almost can't believe how they're shoving this winter in everyone's faces like it's the beginning of the end for AGW. Meanwhile many other parts of the world are having a very mild winter...

CCCC, I really enjoy your posts as your knowledge is awesome. I do have say though that with all due respect, when we were having mild winters, and Europe and Asia were having brutal winters global warming alarmists were saying our mild winters were due to global warm. One such quote came from Robert Kennedy Jr. who said he remembered sledding as a kid, but climate change has all but wiped out snowy east coast winters. That came several years before snowmaggaden and other snowstorms since. I also want to clarify the global warming denier quote. I and most others don't deny the earth is warming and co2 plays some role in it. We are just skeptical of the alarmist stance, some of which has already been proven wrong, such as an ice free summer arctic in 2013, and also the 18 year hiatus in warming even though co2 concentrations have increased at the rate it always had. What I, and others deny is the statement made that the science is settled. Science is always ongoing and is never satisfied.

Snowdog, I'm not mad, and you're not right. You guys r looking for someone to blame. In reality u set yourself up like quad c said. You know our winters lately have sucked and with this one actually being cold u thought it would be awesome. So did I but I'm not on here every twelve hours whining to violin music. If we r going to talk isn't there other things we could discuss? The idea of this winter being over/underperforming/under 100 is pretty played out that's all.

A guy can only shake his head in amazement when someone says this hasn't been a snowy winter. Lets review the facts. We are currently nearly 4" above seasonal norms. By all accounts the average Rochester winter is considered snowy and this has been an above average winter. Other evidence of this being a snowy winter is that ski resorts are going to have at or near record long seasons, those that plow have plowed more than they have in years, salt supplies are low--- so I really don't understand how this can't be a snowy winter!

I will concede several disappointing things. The trend was for much snowier and we had too many melts and rain that killed the potential for some record snow pack (global warming at work in my opinion).

I get the impression that some of you just don't understand statistics and the standard normal curve, because it seems you have the expectation that any winter that isn't to the far right of the curve is somehow a failure. Then that is to say, the normal winter to you is a disappointment, and perhaps you should move someplace more suited to your snowfall expectations because you will spend most of your life disappointed.

Thanks for clarifying and acknowledging that areas around KROC have received far more snow; like Greece over 100+ inches, including the 6-7 inches received overnight Saturday into mid-afternoon on Sunday. Just don't like it when folks make the generate statement/assumption that we have not gotten much snow this winter.

All indications are that we will experience some kind of weather pattern within the next month. I believe there is a very high chance of some combination of wind, precipitation, clouds and sunshine. Amounts may or may not be significant.

Now to serious stuff...GFS and GGEM both want to send a weak wave of low pressure close to our region by the end of the week, bringing a moderate snowfall. The Euro wants to keep us primarily dry, with light snow sliding by to our south. The UKMET has high pressure for all, but at the very end of its run. The various GFS ensemble members are at odds with each other, but nearly all of them have some sort of feature. I don't have access to individual members of any other ensemble, but the means all appear to favor a storm track close enough to give us a chance. The polar vortex looks to engage in a retreat from its current position in Quebec back to the northern Hudson Bay region, so suppression might not be as much of an issue here if such a feature does develop. Regardless, it will not be anything major. In the meantime, I hope everyone can squeeze some joy out of this cold and largely dry week.

While I'd be happier with a snow storm, if the winds are light then the cold won't be so bad to enjoy. If we can get some sun thrown in then it would be a great bonus. Looking nice and sunny right now.

If we don't get a storm in the next 2-3 weeks, then I'm going to have to give up on my 110" target. However I still say 100" should not be an issue.Andy

Stop already CCCC! We are done with this winter. The cold is going. The snow has already gone. Spring 17 days away and coming earlier. Please stop as you said "It will not be anything major". Snowdog has been saying under 100 for a long time. We have to give him is due. The man is simply a genius. Who would of thought this a month ago? No one except The Dog!!!! Look even Andy is slowly conceding his 110 prediction. It is slowly going down the toilet. Andy was adamant this was a given a few weeks back. Sit back chill on the model reads and get the barbecue out.

I regret to inform you that we have rejected your pitch for the role of Blog Troll. While your effort was admirable, it was sadly not on par with the standard we here at the News 8 Weather Blog have established for our cast of trolls. We wish you much good fortune in your future endeavors.

How many snow storms have there really been in March for Rochester? 93 big one but besides that. Have not most of ours been ice storms in March. Hard to get cold for a snow storm with the sun angle? Just asking not saying it is so. Please do not construe I am complaining just asking.

I can think of several big March snowstorms off the top of my head besides '93. There was one in 1992, the double blizzard of 1999, a little known storm in 1900 that dropped 40 inches, a 5 day storm in 1984 that brought over 30 inches (partially in February), and the infamous Blizzard of 1960 that was one of the worst winter storms in US history. I also determined that March has the most daily snowfall records of 10+ inches out of any month. This is a prime month for big storms (but not every year).

Except the average temperature for March has actually DECREASED during the last decade, so global warming has zippo to do with it. And we've gone much longer than 15 years in the past without having a big March storm.

That so-called "big storm" people were freaking out over has turned out to be a major underachiever just about everywhere, including the Mid Atlantic who have been this season's "rich get richer" zone. I will make zero effort to hide my delight over this fact.

I thought "bust" was that word people can shout indiscriminately every time the snowfall gets lighter. Or if a dry slot appears. Or if the flakes look too small. Or if the forecast calls for 8-12 inches and we get 7.99 inches instead. Or if the 18z NAM shifts the heaviest snowfall a few pixels south.

I'd hate to imagine the carnage we might witness here after a real bona-fide bust. It would be like five simultaneous train wrecks plus a plane crash and an angry horde of rabid wolverines. And the wolverines are on fire. And immortal.