How Delaware County managed to skirt the worst from Hurricane Sandy

When Hurricane Sandy went about 100 miles north of the Delaware Bay when it decided to take a left turn into the New Jersey coast, it did the residents of Delaware County a big favor.

Photos and videos of what the Jersey Shore looks like now bring about reactions of shock and dismay. And while it might be a stretch to say parts of Delaware County could have suffered similar destruction, there's no question the county avoided the worst of the storm this time.

"The track that Sandy took, although a very bad track for us, was not the worst case scenario," said Kevin Reilly, a long-time Delaware County resident who has written for liveweatherblogs.com since 2000. "A lot of winds had to traverse over land and that was good for us. It was a worst-case scenario for the Jersey Shore. If Sandy were to have been a little closer to Delaware coast, that's the worst case scenario for Delaware County because we would have been in that northwest quadrant of the storm."

Just how bad the results could have been for Delaware County, no one knows for sure. But you can be sure that no one wants to find out. Steve Giancristoforo, the Delaware County System Communications Manager for the Delaware County Emergency Services and the Emergency Management Director for Tinicum Township, is one person who has to be prepared for that dreaded worst-case scenario.

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"There would have been considerably more damage," Giancristoforo said if Sandy's path had been in line with Delaware Bay. "We tried to prepare for that. If you listen to what everybody was saying, we were in the direct path."

Reilly, an elementary school teacher in his day job, was one of the first to predict that Delaware County would not be in the direct path of the storm. He made his call of the storm's track on Oct. 22, a week before it hit.

"The model I went with was the EURO," he said of the storm tracking systems. "In my opinion it was probably the more reliable of the big seven models that were out there. You look at the models and players on the field for the storm. There was really no other direction that storm could go."

Tinicum Township officials always pay attention to storm direction as the municipality is surrounded by the Delaware River and Darby Creek and is the low point of the county. So, obviously large amounts of rain and heavy winds are always a concern there. Giancristoforo said a storm surge of three feet or more in the Delaware River would put Tinicum Township residents in danger.

"We've been through this for four or five times and every time we go through this scenario, we learn a little bit more about what to do to keep us from flooding," Giancristoforo said. "Tinicum is surrounded by water all the way around. We had pumps running night and day to try and keep waters down. Where we were impacted this time was Delaware River.

"We had a little flooding and some water in basements, but nothing too bad this time. The eye passed right over us and while we had some very heavy wind, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. I think it was luck of the draw, the fact that the storm turned where it did, saved us."

Part of that worst-case scenario that did not happen with Hurricane Sandy that often does with hurricanes is that they spawn tornadoes once the weather system hits inland. The cooler temperatures on the ground and in the air kept that from happening this time.

"It could happen in any hurricane and in most hurricanes, it does," said Dr. Jeff Masters, who founded the weather website wunderground.com in 1995, of the potential for tornadoes. "You tend to see that more in the warmer months though. In this case, there was not enough instability, where it's very warm near the surface and very cold up high."

While this was the second hurricane to hit the northeast in as many years, weather experts say there's not enough evidence to predict if hurricanes will strike the northeast yearly. The last time hurricanes came ashore in the northeast in back-to-back years was in 1954 and 55, when there were two hurricanes in each of those years.

"As far as steering goes, there is no way of telling," Masters said of trying to predict if more hurricanes would make it up the coast in the near future. "Someone once said hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches."

But Masters did point out that there are some factors in play that will increase the odds of hurricanes finding places like the Jersey Shore late in the hurricane season, which generally is considered to be from June 1 through Nov. 1.

"The one thing we know, is that the average sea level has gone up seven inches in the past century," Masters said. "And global warming has warmed up the ocean. The chances of a hurricane increase by five percent for every 1.8 degrees of ocean warmth. It enables hurricanes to get further north and exist longer in the year.

"The fact that we had a late October hurricane, I don't think would have happened without global warming. It changes the probabilities. It's just a shift in the odds."

Just where Hurricane Sandy ranks in storms to hit the northeast can cause a bit of debate. But there's no doubt, it was one of the top ones.

"It depends how you measure them," Masters said. "As far as impact on most number of people it would rank No. 1. There have been storms almost as big. In 1815, that storm was more severe and in 1938 there were stronger winds on Long Island that killed 600 people."

The one advantage forecasters and the public have now is the knowledge that a hurricane or large storms exist and an increasing likelihood of knowing where it's going to go.

"In the last 20 years, forecasts of hurricane tracks have doubled in accuracy," Masters said. "In 1938, they didn't know about it until the water first started rising. They did do hurricane warnings back then, but they missed that one."

And even now, forecasters are already at work looking at the next storm to hit the northeast, possibly a nor'easter sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. Reilly said Friday it was a bit early to project the wind gusts and rain amounts. But whatever the case, it won't be anything like Sandy.

"That will be a baby," he said, "compared to what we just went through with Sandy."