Photo Gurus Dish on the Camera of the Future

What will cameras look like 10 years from now? That was the topic of discussion at a rousing PhotoPlus East Expo panel this week, which featured Dan Havlik from PDN as moderator, IDC's Chris Chute, Canon's Chuck Westfall, Nikon's Steve Heiner, Sony's Mark Weir, and Photoshop training guru Scott Kelby.

While the representatives from the big three cameramakers were conservative in their estimations, Kelby kept the crowd engaged with a five-point prediction on the changes we'll see.

That includes the end of f-stops as we know it, with lenses and cameras moving to continuously variable apertures, based on a scale that's easier for non-pros to understand. Kelby made the point that anyone can pick up a camera today and get a proper exposure thanks to automatic settings, but many are intimidated by seeing unfamiliar settings like f/4 show up in a viewfinder.

Kelby also wants to see sensors that can capture scenes exactly as the human eye perceives them, and viewfinders that will show the scene as the camera sees it, complete with proper depth of field—without the need to activate depth of field preview.

Meanwhile, he also predicted the demise of accessories like tripods, neutral density filters, polarizing filters, and similar camera add-ons. "I want to shoot a waterfall at 2PM and have a handheld 20-second exposure without any filters," he quipped. This requires serious advancements in image stabilization and sensors that can hit much lower sensitivity settings than are possible today. He also said image noise is going to be a nonissue by 2023; and with the rate that sensor technology is improving, he's likely not far off on that point.

His final prediction was that glass lenses will become a thing of the past. "Why does a 600mm lens have to be so big? There are better ways to capture light." He cited graphene, a carbon compound, that offers superior transmission of light than glass, he said. We won't be completely free of glass in lenses by 2023, but alternatives will be available, according to Kelby.

Heiner, Weir, and Westfall were a bit more conservative, although Weir did point out that Sony recently released cameras with EVFs that show true exposure and depth of field, and has at least one camera in its lineup with a continuously variable aperture. The latter is not a new concept in of itself; some classic photo lenses and most cinema lenses don't require detents at specific aperture settings.

Canon's Westfall predicted that, as electronic viewfinders and on-sensor autofocus systems improve, the mirror box will disappear. Heiner agreed, citing that Nikon had realized that in a small form factor with its 1 camera system, and Weir noted that Sony SLRs already use EVFs, pointing to the Alpha 7 as an example of a full-frame mirrorless camera with on-sensor phase detect autofocus and an EVF. Heiner added that the change from an optical viewfinder to an electronic one is similar to the change from film to digital.

Connected cameras were discussed a bit. Heiner stated that many new photographers are becoming interested in picture taking because of smartphone cameras. Some move to SLRs and more serious cameras because they find that they like the process of capturing photos. He feels that while wearable cameras like Google Glass capture images and video, they don't deliver the same feeling of taking a photo as a camera does.

The final round of discussion pertained to the business of photography: How photographers today will earn money in the next decade. Chute started things off with video, stating that photographers will need to have both skills to survive. This led Westfall to point out the sheer number of HD television networks that are in need of content. It's a gap that photographers who move to video can fill today, and Westfall said that the entire cycle will begin again as 4K encroaches on 1080p. Heiner added that photojournalists today are asked to produce more and more video by their employers and clients, but not all are comfortable in doing so.

Heiner shifted gears and brought up Uncle Bob, the stereotypical family member who rolls into the wedding with a professional D-SLR and attempts to outdo the paid professional who is there solely to capture images from the evening. Weir closed the evening by pointing out by stating that pros will survive by adapting to the needs of their clients and, ultimately, delivering work that's on the level that the typical Uncle Bob is unable to match in quality.

Senior digital camera analyst for the PCMag consumer electronics reviews team, Jim Fisher is a graduate of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, where he concentrated on documentary video production. Jim's interest in photography really took off when he borrowed his father's Hasselblad 500C and light meter in 2007. He honed his writing skills at retailer B&H Photo, where he wrote thousands upon thousands of product descriptions, blog posts, and reviews. Since then he's shot with hundreds of camera models, ranging from pocket point-and-shoots to medium format...
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