Luzon may be placed on yellow alert during Malampaya plant shutdown

THE Luzon grid could be placed on
yellow alert for five days during the 20-day shutdown of the Malampaya gas
facility, an official from the Department of Energy (DOE) said on
Wednesday.

“This is the worst-case scenario
based on existing simulation. The best-case scenario is zero yellow alert,”
Energy Undersecretary Felix William B. Fuentebella said after a press briefing.

The yellow alert is expected to be
issued from February 13 to 17.

A yellow alert is issued by the
National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) when the contingency reserve is
less than the capacity of the largest synchronized unit of the grid. In Luzon
this is equivalent to 647 megawatts (MW), or one unit of the Sual power plant.

The worst-case scenario includes a
possible unscheduled shutdown of the Sual plant, according to the agency.

The agency assured that even if the
Sual plant goes offline, Luzon would still not be placed on red alert.

A red alert is issued when there is
severe power deficiency.

The Malampaya gas facility, which
provides around 40 percent of Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) supply
requirements, will undergo a maintenance shutdown from January 28 to
February 16.

Incidentally, there are power plants
that will also undergo maintenance shutdown on some days when the gas facility
is offline. These plants are Calaca 1 (200 MW), QPPL (456 MW) and Ilijan block
1 (600 MW). The total capacity coming from these plants that will be shaved off
from the grid is 1,256 MW.

An additional supply deficit of 414
MW and 180 MW will come from San Gabriel and Ilijan block 2. Both are
utilizing gas from Malampaya.

In all, 1,850 MW of capacity would
be shaved off from the grid during the Malampaya shutdown.

The Luzon grid is dependent on
Malampaya, which fuels three power plants: Santa Rita, 1,000 MW; San Lorenzo,
500 MW; and Ilijan, 1,200 MW. The Santa Rita and San Lorenzo power plants are
owned by Lopez-led First Gen Corp., while Ilijan is owned by Kepco Philippines.

These plants will use more expensive
alternative fuel throughout the shutdown period.

The Santa Rita and San Lorenzo gas
plants will continue to run, but on liquid fuel.

The Ilijan plant will be available,
but its output will be limited up to 420 MW only. One block (600 MW) of Ilijan
will go on scheduled maintenance, while the other block will continue to run on
biodiesel, but only up to 420 MW.

These plants will use more expensive
alternative fuel throughout the shutdown period.

The shutdown will probably result in
an increase of about P1.20 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in power-generation
cost of Meralco.

“It’s an issue of change in fuel
from a cheaper to a more expensive one. Probably from a cheaper P4 per kilowatt
hour [kWh] to P6 to P8 per kWh,” said Fuentebella, who added the P1.20 per kWh
“is still a moving figure.”

“So, we have to adjust our
simulations because it is moving every day,” he said.

The DOE is also closely monitoring
the tasks of industry players involved in the shutdown.

He said the NGCP would need to
revise its demand-supply power outlook during the shutdown.

The NGCP is the country’s grid
operator. “The NGCP projects the power outlook and it needs to revise it
because of ongoing restoration efforts due to the recent typhoon.”

SPEx is the operator of the
Malampaya facility. The DOE wants to make sure the materials needed for the
maintenance work would be fully delivered by January 15 so the
scheduled maintenance won’t go beyond 20 days.

To avert any possible power-supply problem,
the DOE will require Meralco to call on the Interruptible Load Program
participants of Meralco.

“I am not expecting any [power
outage] during the shutdown. We will ask Meralco to include ILP and we are
looking to tapping the demand side management and other renewable-energy
sources,” the DOE official said.