Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Funny how small changes here and there can make all the difference in the world.

1.) If we don't trade Wheeler, we have a clear cut #3 next year
2.) If the Marlins don't take Christian Yelich one pick ahead of us in '10, we have a starting LF with a ton of potential; instead we got Gary Brown
3.) If the Reds don't take Robert Stephenson two picks ahead of us in '11, we have another SP with HUGE upside waiting in the wings; instead we get Joe Panik
4.) If the Cardinals don't take Michael Wacha (already a major league starter) just ONE pick ahead of us, we have a world-class rotation; instead we got Chris Stratton

We were one bone-headed trade and 3 unlucky picks away from having one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, and a roster that would look like this next year:

Why is everyone giving up on Chris Stratton already? He was drafted in 2012...

The Giants track record with taking SP early in drafts is too good to give up now.

How did you get "giving up on Stratton" from that post? Just saying, Wacha blew through the minors and is already in a major league rotation. He's got a mid-90's FB and a changeup that's already a plus pitch.....sounds like someone we could use right now. I like Stratton a lot, just not as much as Wacha and most people who follow these things would agree.

My point being (since it's slow at work today) how different things might've been if but for a guy dropping just one or two slots from where we picked. We hear a lot about how bad our farm system is (and it's not really) and especially about how few guys are ready to play in the majors (that's legit). But that's not always a function of bad drafting per se; it's sometimes a function of picking what's available after a plus-prospect gets taken just before you pick. More specifically, if guys like Yelich or Wacha go just one pick ahead of you, there isn't anything you can do about it. You pick what remains and hope your scouting pays off.

But if for some crazy reason guys like that last just one more pick (or in Stephenson's case, two more picks) it changes the entire complexion/perception of a system. We not only have 3 big-time prospects joining the big club this year/early next filling critical spots and saving tons of FA money, we'd still have the young pitching depth that is on the way (Escobar, Blackburn, Agosta, Mejia, Flores, Gregorio, Mella, etc....and who knows, maybe we still draft Crick as a project in 2011).

Factor in the Wheeler debacle, and we were oh-so close from having one of the deepest systems in the game.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Funny how small changes here and there can make all the difference in the world.

1.) If we don't trade Wheeler, we have a clear cut #3 next year
2.) If the Marlins don't take Christian Yelich one pick ahead of us in '10, we have a starting LF with a ton of potential; instead we got Gary Brown
3.) If the Reds don't take Robert Stephenson two picks ahead of us in '11, we have another SP with HUGE upside waiting in the wings; instead we get Joe Panik
4.) If the Cardinals don't take Michael Wacha (already a major league starter) just ONE pick ahead of us, we have a world-class rotation; instead we got Chris Stratton

We were one bone-headed trade and 3 unlucky picks away from having one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, and a roster that would look like this next year:

Why is everyone giving up on Chris Stratton already? He was drafted in 2012...

The Giants track record with taking SP early in drafts is too good to give up now.

How did you get "giving up on Stratton" from that post? Just saying, Wacha blew through the minors and is already in a major league rotation. He's got a mid-90's FB and a changeup that's already a plus pitch.....sounds like someone we could use right now. I like Stratton a lot, just not as much as Wacha and most people who follow these things would agree.

My point being (since it's slow at work today) how different things might've been if but for a guy dropping just one or two slots from where we picked. We hear a lot about how bad our farm system is (and it's not really) and especially about how few guys are ready to play in the majors (that's legit). But that's not always a function of bad drafting per se; it's sometimes a function of picking what's available after a plus-prospect gets taken just before you pick. More specifically, if guys like Yelich or Wacha go just one pick ahead of you, there isn't anything you can do about it. You pick what remains and hope your scouting pays off.

But if for some crazy reason guys like that last just one more pick (or in Stephenson's case, two more picks) it changes the entire complexion/perception of a system. We not only have 3 big-time prospects joining the big club this year/early next filling critical spots and saving tons of FA money, we'd still have the young pitching depth that is on the way (Escobar, Blackburn, Agosta, Mejia, Flores, Gregorio, Mella, etc....and who knows, maybe we still draft Crick as a project in 2011).

Factor in the Wheeler debacle, and we were oh-so close from having one of the deepest systems in the game.

I feel you man. But who knows if the Giants would've picked those players. Maybe they wasn't even on the team's radar. But I know the point that you're making.

Speaking of a move, would you guys be opposed of trading Crick + Romo for a LF LIKE Jay Bruce-someone who hasn't even entered his prime yet and he's cost controlled for the next 3 years making a reasonable salary? (10-12 mil annually)

I'm not suggesting that both Bruce and Romo are on the trade market, but in order to finally get that LEGIT LF, Romo may be our best piece to get that player. Plus Romo is entering FA at the end of 2014.

^^ Yup, we don't know if they would've picked those other guys, but it is interesting to speculate especially on Yelich and Wacha. Two positions (SP, LF) that we desperately need to fill and both those guys (who were both a pick away) are already contributing in the majors while the guys we picked just one selection later have been slow to develop by comparison (putting it kindly in Brown's case).

I mention Stephenson also because he's not only a NorCal kid, but I saw him pitch against SJ last month and was absolutely blown away by him (as were the Giants). No joke, he's got Wheeler/Crick-type of stuff with Clayton Blackburn type of command/control. He's the best minor league pitcher I've seen in person in years, so was just musing at how we missed out on him and ended up with Joe Panik instead. And knowing how much we value pitching I can't see a scenario where (if he was still available) we didn't pick a highly-touted, fire-balling, local HS pitcher over a college 2B/SS.

To your question, I'd trade Romo and someone else, but I wouldn't trade Crick for Bruce. IMO, Crick is the kind of kid you give a few years to develop, let him learn how to really pitch then put him in your rotation for the next 10+ years. As important as it is to find a quality LF, I wouldn't trade a prospect like Crick for anyone short of Cabrera, Trout, Machado, Harper, etc. Of course, their teams wouldn't do that deal either...

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
^^ Yup, we don't know if they would've picked those other guys, but it is interesting to speculate especially on Yelich and Wacha. Two positions (SP, LF) that we desperately need to fill and both those guys (who were both a pick away) are already contributing in the majors while the guys we picked just one selection later have been slow to develop by comparison (putting it kindly in Brown's case).

I mention Stephenson also because he's not only a NorCal kid, but I saw him pitch against SJ last month and was absolutely blown away by him (as were the Giants). No joke, he's got Wheeler/Crick-type of stuff with Clayton Blackburn type of command/control. He's the best minor league pitcher I've seen in person in years, so was just musing at how we missed out on him and ended up with Joe Panik instead. And knowing how much we value pitching I can't see a scenario where (if he was still available) we didn't pick a highly-touted, fire-balling, local HS pitcher over a college 2B/SS.

To your question, I'd trade Romo and someone else, but I wouldn't trade Crick for Bruce. IMO, Crick is the kind of kid you give a few years to develop, let him learn how to really pitch then put him in your rotation for the next 10+ years. As important as it is to find a quality LF, I wouldn't trade a prospect like Crick for anyone short of Cabrera, Trout, Machado, Harper, etc. Of course, their teams wouldn't do that deal either...

Nice to speculate but we will never know if the Giants even had Wacha ahead of Stratton or Brown ahead of Yelich. The Giants have had ZERO success ever drafting a high school hitter so I kind of doubt they would have taken Yelich. Plus, he wasnt rated THAT high coming into the draft. Looking back at post draft comments...

19. St. Louis Cardinals (Albert Pujols-LAA) - Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&MA towering 6-foot-6, 200 pounds, Wacha has spent the past three years dominating for the Aggies. He boasts a formidable changeup to go along with a mid-90s heater, but has yet to develop a consistent breaking pitch. Wacha doesn't boast as high of a ceiling as some of the other arms taken this evening, and may never turn into a No. 1 or 2 starter. He's a strong bet to reach the big leagues, however.20.

San Francisco Giants - Chris Stratton RHP Mississippi StateSan Francisco practically sprinted to the podium to get this pick in, as they probably didn't believe they'd have a shot at Stratton when the evening began. Stratton began the season in the bullpen, but quickly became the Bulldogs' ace and led the SEC in strikeouts. He has an ideal frame and a four-pitch arsenal. All of his tools are projected to be between average and above-average at the major league level. Assuming the late-bloomer fulfills that prophecy, the Giants just snagged no worse than a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

John - It was just as much about how these guys turn/turned out. Just so happened that the guy taken before Brown has already developed into a top prospect, and the guy taken just ahead of Stratton has done the same. Definitely pure speculation and as I mentioned to pd, we don't know if we would've picked those guys anyway. Just interesting to see how close we came, if the chips fell a little differently, to having 2 guys we could plug in to key roles.

Like I said earlier, it was a slow day at work, so this old guy had too much time on his hands to muse.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Funny how small changes here and there can make all the difference in the world.

1.) If we don't trade Wheeler, we have a clear cut #3 next year
2.) If the Marlins don't take Christian Yelich one pick ahead of us in '10, we have a starting LF with a ton of potential; instead we got Gary Brown
3.) If the Reds don't take Robert Stephenson two picks ahead of us in '11, we have another SP with HUGE upside waiting in the wings; instead we get Joe Panik
4.) If the Cardinals don't take Michael Wacha (already a major league starter) just ONE pick ahead of us, we have a world-class rotation; instead we got Chris Stratton

We were one bone-headed trade and 3 unlucky picks away from having one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, and a roster that would look like this next year:

Why is everyone giving up on Chris Stratton already? He was drafted in 2012...

The Giants track record with taking SP early in drafts is too good to give up now.

How did you get "giving up on Stratton" from that post? Just saying, Wacha blew through the minors and is already in a major league rotation. He's got a mid-90's FB and a changeup that's already a plus pitch.....sounds like someone we could use right now. I like Stratton a lot, just not as much as Wacha and most people who follow these things would agree.

My point being (since it's slow at work today) how different things might've been if but for a guy dropping just one or two slots from where we picked. We hear a lot about how bad our farm system is (and it's not really) and especially about how few guys are ready to play in the majors (that's legit). But that's not always a function of bad drafting per se; it's sometimes a function of picking what's available after a plus-prospect gets taken just before you pick. More specifically, if guys like Yelich or Wacha go just one pick ahead of you, there isn't anything you can do about it. You pick what remains and hope your scouting pays off.

But if for some crazy reason guys like that last just one more pick (or in Stephenson's case, two more picks) it changes the entire complexion/perception of a system. We not only have 3 big-time prospects joining the big club this year/early next filling critical spots and saving tons of FA money, we'd still have the young pitching depth that is on the way (Escobar, Blackburn, Agosta, Mejia, Flores, Gregorio, Mella, etc....and who knows, maybe we still draft Crick as a project in 2011).

Factor in the Wheeler debacle, and we were oh-so close from having one of the deepest systems in the game.

Not you specifically, just the general opinion among fans seems to be that hes not panning out. I used your comment about "instead, we took Stratton" to point it out.

Wacha beat him to the Majors, but theres no way to tell which pick was better yet.

He hasnt taken the Minor Leagues by storm like Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner did, but theres still time.

I think Stratton will be fine; it was just interesting to me that the guy taken right before him is already part of a major league rotation. Same deal with Christian Yelich and both are at positions of critical need for us while our guys taken a pick later are either a few years off (Stratton) or likely busts (Brown). Draft position, scouting, player development, luck, all of the above...who knows what makes some farm systems great and others crap.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I think Stratton will be fine; it was just interesting to me that the guy taken right before him is already part of a major league rotation. Same deal with Christian Yelich and both are at positions of critical need for us while our guys taken a pick later are either a few years off (Stratton) or likely busts (Brown). Draft position, scouting, player development, luck, all of the above...who knows what makes some farm systems great and others crap.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I think Stratton will be fine; it was just interesting to me that the guy taken right before him is already part of a major league rotation. Same deal with Christian Yelich and both are at positions of critical need for us while our guys taken a pick later are either a few years off (Stratton) or likely busts (Brown). Draft position, scouting, player development, luck, all of the above...who knows what makes some farm systems great and others crap.

I wonder why stratton didnt start off in san jose?

Not sure, but probably had something to do with the rotation SJ already had lined up (Crick, Escobar, Blach, Mejia and Blackburn). I think their hope/expectation was that Stratton would dominate the Sally (like Agosta did) and eventually move to SJ this year when one of their starting 5 got bumped to AA. Escobar did his part and got bumped, but Stratton struggled more than they hoped he would. IMO, Agosta would've gotten the bump to SJ instead, but struggled with nagging injuries.

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