Russian forces exercised attack on Svalbard

INVASION OF SVALBARD: An invasion of the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard was one of the scenarios Russian military forces trained on during the extensive military exercise Zapad 2017 in September. This picture is from the Zapad exercise in 2013. Photo: MIL.RU

Russian military forces exercised in September 2017 how to invade Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago in the Barents Sea. Behind closed doors, NATO has expressed discontent and concern over the lack of intelligence from Norway providing a pre warning of the simulated invasion, which was a part of the Russian military exercise «Zapad 2017» in the High North.

By KJETIL STORMARK / kjetil@aldrimer.no

Six different sources from the Norwegian defense establishment as well as within the NATO command structure independently confirm the dramatic events to Aldrimer.no. Neither NATO nor Norway have publicly acknowledged that Russian naval and air capabilities in September carried out a simulated invasion of Svalbard.

Crisis meetings

The events in the north has also lead to several crisis meetings between NATO and Norwegian military authorities. The Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) was able to provide no or little warning of the simulated Russian attack, carried out by Russian bomber jets and an extensive naval fleet.

Many of the operational orders to the Russian military forces before «Zapad 2017» seems to have been communicated through ground based communication systems, making it more difficult for NIS and other western intelligence services to intercept the messages. The NIS spy ship MS «Marjata» was also unavailable or at reduced capacity. The same has long also been the case for the Norwegian P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircrafts (MPA) from the 333 Squadron, based at Andøya air base in the north of Norway, causing a significant dive in Norway’s anti submarine warfare (ASW) capacity.

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UNDER HEAVY CRITICISM: The Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) was unable to provide enough intelligence to provide a satisfactory situational awareness for NATO in the north, according to a number of sources. The picture shows the NIS headquarter at Lutvann, north of Oslo in Norway. Photo: TORGEIR HAUGAARD/NORWEGIAN DEFENSE

— The agenda of the crisis meetings have been the complete loss of situational awareness in the north. NATO believes there was a complete failure in the Norwegian military capacity and response during this last Russian exercise, a Norwegian senior military officer said. Or phrased less diplomatically: Norway and NATO was close to being blind and completely unprepared when the Russian simulation of an attack on Svalbard occured.

Two waves of bombers

When Norwegian military radar systems detected a wave of Russian Tupolev bomber planes in the Barents Sea, Norwegian F-16 fighter jets were scrambled to identify the planes.

«When the F-16s had to return to base to refuel, the Russians launched their second wave of bombers. Then we had no available air power in the area of operations», a Norwegian military officer admitted, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The Norwegian Joint Military Headquarter (FOH) at Reitan outside of Bodø refused to comment.

«FOH chooses not to comment on the events you are describing, since this would compromize classified information», spokesman and liutenant colonel Ivar Moen stated in a written statement to Aldrimer.no.

«Norwegian authorities do not want to speculate what scenarios Russian forces use for their exercises. We monitor closely the activity close to Norway in general. That was also the case during the exercise «Zapad», deputy defense minister Øystein Bø said to Aldrimer.no.

However, the head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS), ltn. gen. Morten Haga Lunde, stated in a comment when this story first broke that the NIS had not seen any signs of a simulated Russian attack on Svalbard as part of the exercise «Zapad 2017» in September. Other analysts disagree with this assessment.

Haga Lunde also said that he strongly disagreed with the claim that NIS did a poor job in monitoring Russian troop and fleet movements in September, as many sources claim to Aldrimer.no.

Only eight F-16s

NATO sources, also speaking on the condition of anonymity since they are not authorized to discuss these matters in public. state that they are shocked that Norway, which on paper claims to still have 56 F-16 fighter planes, only was able to muster eight F-16s before and during the Russian military exercise «Zapad 2017». Even if Norway will receive its first three F-35s for operational use in Norway early next month, it is still several years before the new fighter plane system will be fully operational in the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF).

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ONLY EIGHT: Only eight Norwegian F-16 fighter planes were available in September, providing what NATO deems to be an inadequate air power capability in the High North. The picture shows a Norwegian F-16 before taxing during the exercise ACE17 at Bodø air base earlier this year. Photo: JULIE HELENE GÜNTHER/NORWEGIAN DFENSE

Due to the poor performance and lack of air power capabilities on Norway’s part, the Norwegian Joint Military Headquarter (FOH) at Reitan outside of Bodø decided to temporarily move the forwarded QRA base (Quick Reaction Alert, a 15 minute NATO response mechanism) to the Banak Air Field in Finnmark. This was done to ensure the remaining and available F-16s were located much closer and could increase their level of operability in the Area of operations (AO). This temporary QRA base was upheld at least in the period of 14 to 18 September. «Zapad 2017» formally lasted from 14 to 20 September. However, the Russian Northern Fleet started operating large naval maneuvers well ahead of these dates.

A NATO official, responding officially on behalf of the defence alliance, declined to comment on the specifics of this news story.

«ZAPAD was clearly exercising a large scale state-on-state conflict. The nature of the forces and capabilities involved bears this out», the NATO official stated in a written email statement to Aldrimer.no.

50 naval vessels

According to the Northern Fleet press office, 50 vessels took part in the large scale Russian naval operations in the Barents Sea in September. 40 of these were surface vessels, of which 20 battle vessels and 20 support vessels. 10 submarines also took part. The flag ship of the fleet was the battle cruiser «Pyotr Velikyi» (Peter the Great), where the commander of the Northern Fleet, vice admiral Nikolay Yemenov was present. In addition at least 30 military aircrafts participated, together with more than 5.000 servicemen and more than 300 weapons systems and other pieces of military equipment.

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FLAG SHIP: The Russian battle cruiser «Pyotr Velikiy» was the flag ship of the large naval fleet exercising in the Barents Sea, training how to invade Svalbard. Photo: MIL.RU

Long before the naval exercise started, Russian troops used aerosol spray and smoke machines to make it harder for surveillance planes and satelites to monitor what was happening in Russian military ports in the Kola peninsula.

Amphibious assault forces

Already on Sunday 3 September, a company of paratroopers from the Russian air mobile forces from Vozdushno-desantnye voyska Rossii (VDV) entered an amphibious assault vessel from the Northern Fleet to take part in an alarm exercise «somewhere in the Arctic». Infantrymen from the 80. Motorized Rifle Brigade in Alarkurtti (the Arctic Brigade) also took part in the alarm exercise. According to previously published information, this Arctic Brigade has earlier trained on carrying out an assault against Svalbard, or more oftenfly refered to as Spitsbergen in some of the Russian media.

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LARGE AMPHIBIOUS FORCE: Russia mobilized a large amphibious assault force on at least three different amphibious assault vessels from the Northern Fleet during the Zapad exercise in September. This picture is from the Zapad exercise in 2009. Foto: KREMLIN.RU

Only three days later, around 7 September, Norwegian pilots started reporting anomalies and loss of GPS signals in the county of Finnmark, bordering Russia. Further investigation from Norwegian authorities revelead that the signals were intentionally jammed, and only targeted signals from the US NAVSTAR GPS network. The jamming was traced back to Russia.

On 12 September another large amphibious assault ship was sent to sea, the «Alexander Otrakovskyi», from its home port of Severomorsk. In a statement from the Northern Fleet, spokesman Captain First Rank Vadim Serga claimed the ship had «set out on a long mission to the Atlantic Ocean to fight pirates and terrorists», according to the Russian news agency Tass.

The archipelago of Svalbard has been under Norwegian control since 1925. The Svalbard Treaty of 9 February 1920 is, however, not universally accepted by the international community. Many countries have not ratified the treaty. The group of islands are today considered to be a demilitarized area.

If Russia decides to launch an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) operation in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic, such an operation will be significantly simplified if Russia gains full territorial control over the archipelago. The same is the case for the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.

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DISPUTED STATUS: Svalbard has been under Norwegian territorial control since 1925.The picture shows Longyearbyen on Svalbard during daytime in the winter. Foto: TORBJØRN KJOSVOLD/FORSVARET

From Svalbard, Russian naval and air capabilities can easily deny NATO access to the Barents Sea (or to the Baltic Sea, using Gotland), more effectively protecting Russian naval and air military resources in general, and – in the High North also protecting the strategically important Russian nuclear ballistic missile submarines. These submarines are considered to be a crucial part of Russias second strike capability and an integral part of the country’s military strategy.

Jammed GPS signals

The Russian exercise on how to invade Svalbard was immediately followed by not only jamming of GPS signals but also other elements normally affiliated with denial of access operations. Through the last few years, Russia has systematically built and enhanced its electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, which now far outnumbers the EW capacity and systems of NATO.

— Russia has already succeeded in establishing its «denial bubble» in the High North, a high ranking Norwegian military officer stated. The officer is concerned.

— NATO has no control in the Atlantic and the High North. That’s a fact, the officer said. Top ranking NATO officers are worried what will happen if Russia decides to activate its «bubble» in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic.

— Most or all of our command and control systems will be severely hurt. Also civilian communication systems will go down. We fear we will loose contact also with our weapons systems, a Norwegian defense source said. The source is initimately familiar with NATO assessments in the EW domain.

Testet the nuclear triad

On Wednesday 20 September, the last day of «Zapad 2017», Russia flexed its nuclear muscles and tested its nuclear triad, both land, air, surface and sub surface naval missile platforms.

Ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads were fired from both from land, from one of the nuclear ballistic submarines of the Northern Fleet, as well as from the battle cruiser «Pyotr Velikyi» in the Barents Sea.

Six Russian Tupolev TU-95 og TU-22m3 bomber planes also trained how to carry out nuclear attacks in the Barents Sea, in the Norwegian sea and in the Baltic Sea.

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NUCLEAR TRIAD: On Wednesday 20 September two Russian Tupolev TU-22m3 bomber planes flew along the Norwegian coast as a part of a large scale test of the Russian nuclear triad. The picture shows a Russian Tupolev TU-22m3 bomber during take off. Photo: DMITRI PISJUGIN/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Two Norwegian F-16s were scrambled by NATO to follow two Russian Tupolev TU-22m3 which flew along the entire Norwegian coastline, all the way down to Iceland, before the bombers turned north and returned home. NATO also scrambled American F-15s stationed on Iceland as a part of the NATO Air Policing assignment.

Russian threats

Only two weeks after «Zapad 2017» ended, a classiefied report from the Russian ministry of defense was leaked to the Russian newspaper Kommersant. On 4 October the newspaper stated that the report, which assessed future hot spots for possible military conflict between Russia and NATO, said a conflict over Svalbard could lead to all-out war with Norway and NATO. The leak has been interpreted as a warning, a stratcom message to either Norway or NATO or both.

— Secret defense documents in Russia, they don’t get leaked by coincidence, Øystein Bogen, a long time Russia correspondent for Norwegian TV 2 said. Bogen has also authored the book «Putin and I», which was published in Norway in 2016.

The leak of the Russian defense report is not the first time Russia or somebody on Russia’s behalf implies a possible military conflict over Svalbard.

On 6 february last year, the website Southfront.org published a video were the site claimed the new Arctic brigade in Alakurtti was training how to carry out special forces operations behind enemy lines and how to invade Svalbard. Southfront is by experts considered to be a part of the extensive Russian hybrid warfare and information war against the west. This particular website seems to have a western military audience as the target group.

NATO is currently investigating the full scope of the «Zapad 2017» exercise.

«While a full assessment of ZAPAD will take weeks, early indications are that the scale and geographical scope of ZAPAD 2017 significantly exceeded those previously announced by Russia. Prior to the exercise, Russia said that ZAPAD would involve forces engaged in a ‘counter-terrorism’ scenario in Belarus, Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea region and around Saint Petersburg. But during the course of the exercise there have also been substantial concurrent Russian military drills in the Arctic and Far East, the Black Sea, close to Ukraine’s borders and in the Abkhazia region of Georgia, some of which have been officially linked by the Russian authorities to ZAPAD», a NATO official states in an email to Aldrimer.no.

And added: «In effect, these activities together constituted a single strategic exercise, involving the full spectrum of Russian and Belarusian military – including warships, strategic submarines, fighter jets, helicopters, tanks and artillery, air defences, anti-ship missiles, special forces, and short-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.»

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