10 key races in the battle for the House

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WASHINGTON — This year's congressional elections are turning into the most competitive — and unpredictable — in a generation. One conservative operative recently told reporters that the rest of the campaign is likely to resemble “a 48-day knife fight.”

Because of reapportionment and redistricting, more than three dozen incumbents (of both parties) are fighting for their political survival. Add to that the larger-than-normal number of retirements, which has given each party some good take-over opportunities. And 20 tea party freshmen are trying to prove that their 2010 upset wins were not a once-in-a-political-lifetime aberration.

It'll be tough. Democrats are competitive in 40 Republican-held districts. But the GOP could stake claim to up to 35 seats currently held by Democrats.

Here are 10 tight House races that offer important clues about the direction of the 2012 campaign season.

1. Texas' 23rd District

Both parties (and their allied Super PACs) are investing heavily in this sprawling conglomeration of San Antonio suburbia and rural Southwest Texas. Freshman Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco is the only Mexican American Republican to represent a majority Latino district, and Democrats are hoping to reclaim this swing district two years after Canseco ousted veteran Democrat Ciro Rodriguez. Democrats are touting a poll showing their nominee, Pete Gallego, with a narrow lead. Democrats can't afford to lose races such as this if they are to have any chance to win control of the House.

2. Pennsylvania's 12th District

Another must-win for Democrats is the southwestern Pennsylvania district currently represented by Mark Critz, who won the seat after longtime incumbent Jack Murtha died in office. Critz survived a Republican onslaught in a special election, then defeated fellow Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire in a bruising primary. The general election won't be any easier. Republicans have nominated Keith Rothfus, who narrowly lost in 2010 in a district that was less Republican than this gerrymandered creation of the Republican-dominated Pennsylvania Legislature. The new 12th District, which wraps around Pittsburgh, favored John McCain in 2008 by 54 percent to 45 percent.

3. Oklahoma's 2nd District

Can a Democratic “Blue Dog” survive in the South? During the past four elections, the Southern Blue Dog — a moderate to conservative Democrat — has become an endangered species. This year, it might become extinct. Blue Dog retirements will result in almost-certain Republican pickups in Arkansas and North Carolina. The one place where Democrats have a snowball's chance in Oklahoma is in the Sooner State. Conservative Democrat Dan Boren, son of a legendary Oklahoma Democrat, is retiring. Republicans think that GOP nominee Markwayne Mullin, a businessman and true-red conservative, is well-positioned to seize the historically Democratic seat. But Democrats believe they have a strong candidate in Rob Wallace, a longtime prosecutor who won more votes in the August runoff than the two Republican contenders combined. If Wallace loses, the Southern Blue Dog may be officially declared dead at the federal level.

4. New York's 21st District

Democrat Bill Owens became the first Democrat in a century to represent the old 23rd District when a divided Republican Party allowed him to win a 2009 special election with 49 percent of the vote. With the opposition again divided in 2010, he won a full term with 47.5 percent of the vote. This time, redistricting has united the Adirondack region and most of the North Country in the redrawn 21st District, and the Plattsburgh Democrat is again facing the Republican he defeated two years ago, Watertown businessman Matt Doheny. But this time, Republicans are not divided. And the GOP holds a 15 percentage-point registration edge. Owens is counting on massive Democratic turnout for President Barack Obama to bring him a third straight win — this time with a majority.

5. California's 52nd District

San Diego Republican Brian Bilbray, a six-term incumbent and tough-on-immigration conservative, is trying to hold off Democrat Scott Peters in a newly designed district that is almost evenly divided among Republicans, Democrats and Independents. This area was long represented by disgraced Congressman Randy “Duke” Cunningham, who was imprisoned for a bribery conviction. But redistricting and the growing Mexican American voting population makes it ultra-competitive. Bilbray, a skilled fundraiser with a moderate streak on social issues, has a money edge. Peters, a port commissioner and former San Diego City Council president, has plenty of money of his own. This is a high-cost, high-risk district for both parties.

6. California's 26th District

This new district was cobbled together from three old congressional districts. Most of it has been represented by Republican Elton Gallegly, who retired rather than run in the modified, more Democratic district. Democrats see it as one of their best pickup opportunities, and state Rep. Julia Brownley emerged from the state's “blanket primary” as the Democrats' top choice. The Republican candidate, state Sen. Tony Strickland, is well-known and well-funded. Unless Mitt Romney melts down in the Golden State, this should be a very close race.

7. Iowa's 4th District

A titanic political struggle is taking place in Iowa, where reapportionment eliminated hard-right Republican Steve King's district and redistricting created a swing seat that is highly coveted by Democrats. Christie Vilsack — Iowa's former first lady, the wife of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and a state political power in her own right — is the Democratic standard-bearer. Democrats would looooooove to defeat the Republican who has become the face of anti-immigration rhetoric on Capitol Hill.

8. Minnesota's 8th District.

Chip Cravaack is the definition of a fluke winner in 2010. In the GOP landslide, the tea party favorite ousted powerful Democratic committee chairman Jim Oberstar in a northeastern Minnesota House contest. This is strange because his family lives in New Hampshire. Now he's seeking re-election in a decidedly Democratic district, and 2012 is not shaping up to be a very different kind of political year. Good news for Cravaack: Democrats had a divisive primary before settling on former Duluth City Councilor Jeff Anderson, and independent groups are spending heavily to save the GOP freshman from extinction.

9. New York's 19th District

Chris Gibson's 2010 victory in the Albany-area district was no fluke. He was a solid candidate — a decorated Army veteran and American politics professor at West Point — and he ran a strong race to unseat Democrat Scott Murphy by 10 percentage points. This year, he faces former federal prosecutor Julian Schreibman. More than half the district's voters are new to Gibson. And the district is less Republican than Gibson's old 20th District. Unlike many of the GOP freshmen, Gibson has shown a streak of moderation and bipartisanship. He'll need to attract independent support to win a second term. Republicans expect to hold this seat, but a Schreibman victory would be a sign of a Democratic wave that could return Nancy Pelosi to the speakership.

10. Utah's 4th District

Utah Democrat Jim Matheson is at risk of being the only Democratic incumbent to lose because of Mitt Romney's coattails. Romney is expected to carry Utah by as many as 50 percentage points. Matheson is one of the most conservative Democrats left on Capitol Hill, and he hung on in the 2010 rout. But Republicans think they have a winner in Mia Love, the mayor of Saratoga Springs, who would become the first African American Republican woman (and the first black Mormon) ever elected to the House if she defeats Matheson. Independent polling has the Democratic in the lead, but a massive Romney (and Mormon) turnout could bury the incumbent (who's also a Mormon).