In my N.L.-only league, we have three keepers but only one can be a starting pitcher. I am undecided on whether I should keep Carlos Zambrano or Brandon Webb. Any suggestions?

Joe Eva, Johnston, R.I.

Gardner: You have a nice predicament, but in the end what you want from a pitcher is consistency. That's why Webb is the better choice. His sinker induces a ton of ground balls and that's good for the ERA. Plus, his recent string of consecutive shutout innings shows just how dominant he can be when he's in a groove. If you think of Zambrano as more of a strikeout pitcher, look again. Webb's K/9 rate this season is better than Big Z's.

One final thing to consider. Zambrano just signed a new five-year deal with the Cubs. Some players tend to regress – consciously or subconsciously – once they've hit a big payday. Who knows if that will happen to Zambrano, but it's something to consider.

Pass on Abreu

I am looking at my keepers for year- we get three and I have it narrowed down to four: Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, and Chone Figgins. I also have Feliz Hernandez, but he seems to have faded. Who should I keep?

Richard Bittinger Jr., Albertville, Ala.

Gardner: My theory on keepers is to get as much upside as possible and if that means keeping a guy one year too early, I'd rather do that than hang onto a player one year too long. I'm afraid that would be the situation with Abreu. Manny Ramirez may be in the same boat, but he's still slugging 60 points higher than Abreu. Jeter's numbers a pretty close to Abreu's this season but it's much harder to get those stats from a shortstop than it is from an outfielder.

I'd keep Manny and Jeter for sure. For your final spot, I'd go with King Felix simply because he's so young and his upside is so high. We got a glimpse of just how good he can be earlier this season before he injured his elbow. You'll kick yourself if his true breakout season comes next year and he's on someone else’s roster.

If you have a fantasy question, send an e-mail to sgardner@usatoday.com. Be sure to include your hometown and a daytime phone number for verification purposes.

SIZZLERS AND FIZZLERS

SIZZLERS

Players who have taken an upturn in value in the last week:

Howie Kendrick

2B

Angels

Hitting over .400, scoring plenty of runs since his return from disabled list.

Rafael Soriano

RP

Braves

The favorite for saves in Atlanta following Bob Wickman's abrupt exit.

Tim Wakefield

SP

Red Sox

Has won 9 of his last 11 starts and is riding 22-inning scoreless streak.

Nook Logan

OF

Nationals

Turned his batting average around after abandoning switch-hitting in June.

Chris Young

OF

Diamondbacks

Twenty-plus steals, recent home run binge make it easy to overlook low average.

FIZZLERS

Players who have taken a downturn in the last week:

Mike Mussina

SP

Yankees

Time to cut "Moose" loose now that he's lost his spot in starting rotation.

Luis Gonzalez

OF

Dodgers

Declining power, limited range on defense are liabilities in a playoff race.

Matt Murton

OF

Cubs

Acquisition of Craig Monroe will take away most of his at-bats vs. lefties.

The Baltimore Orioles' doubleheader debacle on Aug. 22 when they were swept 30-3 and 9-7 is an extreme example of what a disastrous outing or two can do to a fantasy team's ratios. Granted, we may not see 30-run game for another 100 years and most fantasy leaguers didn't have Brian Burres, Rob Bell or Paul Shuey active for their respective implosions in that game, but the lesson remains: it doesn't take much to shake up the league standings in ERA and WHIP.

The Orioles' team ERA rose from 4.39 (seventh in the American League) before the doubleheader to 4.66 (11th) afterwards. Likewise, the 40 hits and 16 walks O's pitchers gave up in one day lifted the team WHIP from 1.405 to 1.433. So fantasy owners beware. It's a lot easier to lose ground in those categories down the stretch than it is to gain ground.

That's why starting pitchers who can get the job done consistently in September are such valuable commodities.

With that idea in mind, here are some starters who not only are pitching well now but have demonstrated an ability to stay healthy and remain effective in the regular season's final full month.

Best of the best

•Johan Santana: The undisputed king of the second half flashed his brilliance again with a 17-strikeout performance Aug. 19 against the Texas Rangers. In five September starts last year, Santana went 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA. Over the last three years, he's 10-2 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in September. That's why you pay top dollar for him every year.

•Roy Oswalt: A tweak in his side forced him to miss a start last week, but he's been money in the bank down the stretch in his career. He was 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA last September. Over the last three years: 13-2, 2.61 ERA.

•Orlando Hernandez: El Duque's postseason exploits are well-known, but his September stats aren't bad, either. He had a 2.01 ERA a year ago, and over the last three Septembers, opponents have hit just .222 against him.

•Andy Pettitte: Another proven veteran with an excellent playoff track record, Pettitte has been the ace of the New York Yankees staff this August, winning six consecutive starts. In his last four Septembers (excluding 2004, when his season ended early because of injury), the lefty has gone 14-1 with a 2.59 ERA.

•Rich Hill: He didn't have many major league innings under his belt when he hit his stride late in the year, so it's hard to predict a repeat of his 3-1 record, 1.93 ERA and major league-leading 50 strikeouts in September. Still, he's given up more than three earned runs in a game once (at the Colorado Rockies) since this year's All-Star break, and he's not yet close to the 200-inning mark.

•Ted Lilly: With the Toronto Blue Jays down the stretch last season, Lilly went 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA. (He had a similar run with the Oakland Athletics in 2003 when he was 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA.) From 2003 to 2006, his September record is 13-6 with a 3.64 ERA.

•Bronson Arroyo: The durable right-hander led the majors in September innings a year ago with 51⅓ and was also among the majors' best in ERA at 2.45. Over the last three seasons, he's gone 11-3 with a 3.72 ERA for the month. It's been a down year so far for Arroyo, but he had won three of his last four starts entering the week.

•Woody Williams: He went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA in September with the San Diego Padres a year ago and could still be dealt to a contender this season with the Houston Astros out of the playoff race. He's pitched well lately (3-0, 2.05 ERA in last four starts) and has an 8-2 record and 3.83 ERA over the last three Septembers.

•Jon Garland: Over the last three seasons, September is the only month in which he has a combined losing record.

•Tim Hudson: He's won five of his last six starts but has a 5.18 ERA over the last three Septembers.

•Dan Haren: He seemed to wear down at the end of last season (5.80 ERA in September) as he set a career high for innings pitched in a season. He was on pace to come close to last year's mark (223 innings).

•Chris Capuano: Hit with a double whammy here. Capuano had been sent to the bullpen temporarily and has a history of struggles in September (6.03 ERA over the last two seasons).

With rosters expanding and pitchers' arms being stretched to the limit, September can be the most unpredictable month from a fantasy perspective. Youngsters often run out of gas or are shut down because of the number of innings they've already thrown. But veterans can wear down as well. It might be a smart move for many Roto teams — especially those at the top of the ERA and WHIP categories — to protect themselves by swapping out hit-or-miss starting pitchers for less risky relievers as the season nears its end.

To report corrections and clarifications, contact Reader Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification.

Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez seems to get stronger as the season goes longer, compiling a 12-3 postseason record with a 2.55 ERA.

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