Even David Cameron doesn't believe David Cameron's threat that leaving the EU would mean war

We probably shouldn't get too excited about politicians saying exciting things during election periods. This is what they do, after all, and voters are by and large clever enough to take all political utterances with several doses of salt.

I do not believe that Mr Cameron believes that leaving the EU would significantly increase the chances of war in Europe.

I do not say this out of this disrespect for the Prime Minister or in order to question his integrity or honesty. Quite the contrary.

What ever else is true of Mr Cameron, whatever hard words can be said about him (and some of them have been said by me) he is a man deeply conscious of his duty to the country he leads. When he eventually goes out of office the legacy he most craves is one where people say of him that he did his duty by Britain. As long as that is how history remembers him he will not mind one bit anything else that is said about him

Do remember that the only reason we are even talking about a possible Brexit and its potential consequences is the referendum that Mr Cameron chose to hold. I stress that this was a matter of choice. He did not have to call this vote. Yes ,a failure to do so would have caused him further difficulties within his own party and with Ukip. But it remains a matter of choice, a discretionary piece of policy

And this is also the reason that if British exit would indeed increase the chances of conflict in Europe, he would have actively and deliberately chosen a policy one consequence of which could be war on this continent. The sort of role that a generation of Britons suffered and died and killed to prevent happening ever again.

And frankly I do not believe Mr Cameron would do such a thing. Like any prime minister he is painfully aware that his first duty is the security of the nation. That sense of duty to the country is bone deep in him, bred into him over generations.

The only explanation for today's threat is that Mr Cameron does not believe what he is saying. After all, the alternative explanation. is far far worse than a politician exaggerating things to win votes.