Thursday, April 20, 2017

Trump, GOP will own shutdown, if it happens -- April 20, 2017 column

President Donald Trump took credit for a Democrat’s failure
to win a special election outright in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District,
forcing a run-off in June.

“Glad to be of help!” he tweeted Tuesday night.

But if you want a true gauge of presidential clout, watch
Congress as it wrestles with the prospect of yet another government
shutdown.

Americans have learned not to count on Congress to do much,
but keeping the government open is a modest expectation. That goal, however, challenges
Trump’s and congressional spending priorities.

Democrats have said no to Trump’s $1.4 billion request
to build a border wall. They’re also fighting his proposed $18 billion in cuts
to domestic programs to offset huge increases in defense spending.

Conservative Republicans still want to cut funding to
Planned Parenthood, but saving it is a Democratic priority.

All this matters because Republicans likely will have
to work with Democrats to avoid another government shutdown. Trump should help
make a deal, but, as we know, he’s unpredictable.

We’re here because Congress was unable to get its act
together last December and passed a continuing resolution or temporary spending
measure to avert a government shutdown. That spending authority expires Friday,
the day before Trump’s 100th day in office, which he’d rather spend
talking up his accomplishments than explaining why national parks are closed.

Congress went on a two-week spring break without
dealing with the spending issue. The Senate returns to Washington Monday and the
House on Tuesday, leaving a few days to negotiate.

The last government shutdown, in October 2013, dragged
on for 16 full days, and the one before that lasted 21 full days before it
ended in January 1996. Each cost taxpayers billions of dollars and caused major
disruptions in services.

“There’s not going to be a shutdown,” Senate Majority
Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, assured reporters the other day. These are the same
people who promised to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act on Day One.

Congress could punt again and pass another temporary
extension for a week, pushing the crisis into May, Politico reported.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats are preemptively blaming
each other.

“Our Republican colleagues know that since they
control the House, the Senate, and the White House that a shutdown would fall
on their shoulders, and they don’t want it,” said Senate Minority Leader
Charles Schumer, D-New York.

Republicans need eight Democratic votes to overcome a
Senate filibuster, so Democrats are trying to use their leverage to stop Trump’s
agenda.

“I think Chuck Schumer and the Democrats want a
shutdown,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas and architect of the last shutdown, told
constituents in Texas the other day, the Texas Tribune reported.

This is rich coming from Cruz, who kept the Senate
floor for 21 hours in 2013 in a vain attempt to kill the Affordable Care Act, a
stunt that led to a budget standoff and then to the last shutdown.

Cruz’s antics demonstrated a truth about budget
brinksmanship and government shutdowns: They don’t work. An omnibus spending
bill passed, the ACA still stands, and Congress’ approval rating is a dismal 20
percent.

The cost of paying furloughed federal workers for not
working during the 2013 shutdown was $2 billion, according to the Office of
Management and Budget, which also cited such additional indirect costs as
uncollected fees, halted IRS enforcement measures and additional interest on
payments that were late, due to the shutdown.

No matter how they spin it, Republicans would suffer
political fallout of a shutdown. The stars haven’t misaligned to bring on a
funding gap under single-party rule since the troubled presidency of Jimmy
Carter.

Even if Congress manages to keep the government open
this time, another crisis looms in the fall, when the debt ceiling is reached.

The potential shutdown is a test. Trump could demonstrate
he cares more about governing than electioneering and support a compromise. Congressional
Republicans could show they have more aptitude for governing than squabbling.