James Harden (13) of the Houston Rockets is seen during warmups before the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center on February 20, 2013 in Houston, Texas. / Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Written by

David Walker

Contributing Writer @JDavidWalker

Contributing Writer David Walker is a freshman stuck living in a dorm with no cable, refusing to pay the exorbitant price asked by FSU Housing. So, instead, he purchased an NBA League Pass and spends his nights watching an unreasonable amount of NBA games. Finding no one in his vicinity to share his thoughts with, he asked for a space to speak on the NBA weekly hoping to find a friend who enjoys basketball as much as him. Here's to you, future friend.

One of the biggest appeals and/or drawbacks (depending on your view) of the NBA is almost how predictable its champion is every year. No other sport does a better job at crowning the actual best team in its league than the NBA does. Now, much to sports gamblers’ chagrin, the preseason favorite does not always win and the unpredictability that makes all sports great is still there. But compared to the randomness of other sports’ postseason, professional basketball almost looks like an exact science. The nature of the sport combined with the big enough sample size that comes with seven game series usually means that the best of the best get to the conference finals. This is what appeals most about the NBA—as fun as March Madness and the NFL playoffs are, their inherent randomness usually robs the actual best teams chances of winning it all.

That being said it is undeniable that deep down every sports fan, even me, craves a little bit of randomness. And while there are only four teams that have a “realistic” shot of winning it all (the Heat, Thunder, Spurs, and Clippers) there are more teams than that in the playoffs and with the right amount of luck, anything could happen. Here are the eight teams that have a (very) outside shot of winning it all and what would have to happen to make it a reality.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are currently desperately clinging to the eighth-seed and look about as far from “title contender” as you can be in the playoffs. However they have had the second toughest schedule (by opponents average win percentage) in the league so far and will most likely distance themselves from a fading Portland team. Once in the playoffs, Houston has the benefit of having a legitimate top 15 player in the league in James Harden, someone who is good enough to carry a team through a series. Houston plays at the highest pace in the league (98.7 possessions per game) and their frantic and free-flowing offense has them tied for fifth in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 106.5 points per 100 possessions. As things stand now, they would play the Spurs and the Rocket’s chaotic play could wreak havoc on the Spurs more grounded and structured defense. San Antonio has usually been able to handle these teams in the past, by controlling the tempo of the game, but as we saw against Memphis two years ago they are not infallible. From there, the beauty of the West is that it is so stacked that the elite teams like OKC and LAC will be exhausted from beating each other up, leaving an opening for someone like Houston. The key will be if Houston can play enough respectable defense (22nd in defensive efficiency) not to let teams like the Spurs and OKC beat them at their own game.

Chicago Bulls

In a season that seems more and more meaningless as Derrick Rose’s return looks less and less likely this season, the Bulls keep chugging along. They have rode their 4th ranked defense and elite rebounding to respectability, despite their well below average offense. Joakim Noah has turned into the standout for Defensive Player of the Year and combined with Tom Thibodeau’s genius defensive scheme offensives find it nearly impossible to create the looks they want. The East is very weak and Miami seems the only unbeatable team for these Bulls. However Chicago’s ability to protect the rim and guard against corner threes (Miami’s two favorite shots on offense) makes them a difficult matchup. The problems come in trying to score with the offensively limited players on this team. If, by a miracle, Rose comes back and gives them even just half of what he’s capable of they may have enough offensively to stay with the Heat. And if you can stay with a team and grind them down as Chicago is certainly equip to do, you have a shot.

Boston Celtics

This team seems the most ludicrous of them all, and yet the inexplicable Celtics keep finding ways to play better as their team slowly ages and loses talent. Boston has regained its elite defensive form since a troubling start at the beginning of the season (5th in defensive efficiency) and has somehow pulled their offense up to league average since Rondo left. If this improvement offensively is a trend and not a fluke (still up for debate) then Boston falls into that category with the Bulls as having a shot if they can just get anything more from their offense. Boston can’t exploit the Heat’s biggest weakness, size, as they suffer from the same problems as well but there is something to be said for just being able to play a team tough. For whatever reason Boston relishes the opportunity to play Miami and has shown an uncanny ability to bother them more than almost any other team does. If the Celtics have a big enough cushion in the playoff race to rest up Pierce and Garnett for the playoffs, and Jason Terry continues his success as a floor spreading spot up shooter post-Rondo, then Boston (somehow, someway) still has a shot to get to the finals.

Memphis Grizzlies

The pieces from the Rudy Gay trade are just starting to come into form for Memphis, and the early signs from their offense is good. Tayshaun Prince has done a very good job playing off the ball as a cutter and even a little bit of a spot-up shooter, giving Memphis spacing they desperately needed. The Grizzlies remain one of the few teams in the league that can score in the low post, and even among those handful of teams they are by far the most physically imposing. The size of Gasol and Randolph has remained a terrifying matchup for the Spurs and while it has failed to have much regular season success against the Thunder, still remains a theoretical matchup problem for them as well. Lionel Hollins (Memphis’ head coach) has inexplicably chosen not to play the promising young player out of Toronto, Ed Davis, who would help their offense of the bench. The front office has expressed that this may change in the second half and could make Memphis even more dangerous. The Gay trade may have hurt their chances a bit this season, but their sheer size advantage over most teams still make them a threat.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have a similar case as Houston, as they play at the second fastest pace (97.5 possessions per game) and are tied with them for 5th best offense in the league. However unlike the Rockets Denver’s defense has climbed just above average (13th in the league in defensive efficiency) and can play a structured drive and kick offense as well as a chaotic up and down game. The Nuggets are stacked with good perimeter defenders in Gallinari, Brewer, Chandler and the lock-down Andre Iguodala but their interior defense with the inexperienced Faried and the ever-confounding JaVale McGee is porous at best. The Nuggets’ chances hinge on them getting home court advantage in the first round against Golden State or Memphis (two teams they match up well with) and in the following rounds using their significant advantage of playing in Denver to extend series. The key will be if they can find a way, without a legitimate offensive star, to finish games. This has been their Achilles’ heel the past few years and Lawson or Gallinari are going to have to step up at the end of games for them to have any real hope.

New York Knicks

The beginning of this season had New York blitzing teams, battling Miami for the one seed in the east, and looking like a real title contender for the first time in a decade. Their formula of shooting a ton of threes and switching on defense, however, was unsustainable and they have since fallen off. Their offense remained playing at an elite level (third in the league in offensive efficiency) but their defense has fallen from elite status last year to just at league average now. Tyson Chandler has still been fantastic defensively but he cannot cover up all the holes on this aging team with Jason Kidd trying to guard the athletic point guards and rely on Carmelo Anthony’s defensive energy, which waxes and wanes from game to game. In addition, Mike Woodson’s frantic switching style of defense has had enough tape on it from last year that teams who can make the extra pass (like Miami) will kill them. But any team that can get hot from three as the Knicks can, have a shot in the postseason. Tyson Chandler is already a noted Heat-slayer from his days in Dallas and New York while Melo can create offense when none would be there otherwise. If Chandler can gather himself for another postseason run of elite defense and New York can hit enough of their three pointers, Miami may be in trouble.

Indiana Pacers

Even more than New York, the Pacers are the team that truly scares the Heat. Indiana has used their ridiculous length on defense with Roy Hibbert, David West, Paul George and Lance Stephenson to propel them to number one in the league in defensive efficiency. They bully you for rebounds and slow the pace of the game down to a crawl. However the same problems that plagued them versus the Heat in the playoffs last year have not gone away. Their bench unit still cannot score and as much of a defensive monster as Roy Hibbert is, he has yet to use that elite size to produce any kind of cohesive offensive game, even taking a step back from last year after inking a max contract. However their ability to rebound and completely dominate the pace of the game has bothered Miami enough this regular season and a series in the playoff between these teams may be a long one. If Indiana can just string together four games of any semblance of an offense from their bench and if Hibbert can get back to hitting that un-guardable (especially against Bosh) hook shot then the Heat will have real problems.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors, along with Houston, Denver and Memphis, is what makes the West so ridiculously tough. All these “middle of the pack” teams are going to be very hard outs in a seven game series. Golden State has fallen off recently trying to incorporate Andrew Bogut back into the lineup but if they can figure things out enough to get home-court advantage in the first round they can be dangerous. Their offense has a unique duel threat of two low- and high- post threats in David Lee and Carl Landry and they use Lee’s passing especially to create open shots for Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. Curry, whose paper machete ankles are finally healthy, has turned into the best shooter in the league, someone good enough offensively to carry a team through a series. Defense has been their biggest issue this year but if they get Bogut back to his normal top-5 defensive center self then that may help put them over the top. With the right combination of youth (Curry, Thompson, Barnes) and veteran leadership (Jack, Lee, and Landry) Golden State has the rare capability of knowing what to do with the right amount of youthful talent to actually do it. The Thunder have already found them to be a bad matchup and if they can get enough defensively out of Bogut they may scare the Clippers and Spurs as well.

The League Pass Chronicles: All Star Weekend Sucks Edition

• This is probably an unpopular opinion but I despise All Star Weekend. Friday night is a charade of two basketball games with the laughably bad celebrity game and one full of the falsely named “rising stars” like Tyler Zeller, Brandon Knight, and Dion Waiters. Then Saturday you have the skills competition that no one could care less about, a three-point shooting contest you can catch in highlights five minutes afterwards and a perpetually underwhelming dunk contest. The Sunday game is all right if nothing else because the last three minutes can be fun if it’s a close game. But was that really worth sitting through a screeching Ke$ha performance, Ne-Yo, and Alicia Keys? (Editor’s note: Yes it was. Put down your Hatorade, David.) It’s like the NBA took up the challenge of trying to make it worse than having Pit Bull, which I though was damn near impossible.• On that topic the NBA is clearly confused who their target demographic is based on the musical acts they choose. I mean Mumford and Sons? Really? And then they followed that up with Fall Out Boy (who along with Ne-Yo hadn’t been seen in probably five-plus years) with an inexplicable guest appearance by 2-Chainz. Not only are these terrible bands, they’re terrible bands that people who don’t generally watch the NBA like. The person whose decision it was to pick the live acts needs to be fired. Like immediately.• Perhaps the worst part of the All Star Game is the people who try to draw meaningful conclusions from a meaningless game. Last year, these geniuses tried to use LeBron James’ pass at the end of the game to be a referendum on his career. Now we have the sentiment that Kobe locking up LeBron in the closing minutes of the game last Sunday now means he has successfully “defended his throne.” I can barely begin to explain how moronic this is. Kobe and the Laker’s are fighting for 9th place in the West with a team who has four future Hall of Famers on it. LeBron is the raining MVP, heading for another one, and his team is the favorite to win another title. Even more, a few weeks ago, in a game that actually counted, LeBron torched the Lakers going off for 39-7-8 and shut a heating up Kobe down in the fourth. But yeah those two blocks was Kobe “defending his throne.” What sucks is that was actually great defense by a great player in Kobe and now it becomes impossible to appreciate because people don’t understand how to put things in context.