Saturday, January 5, 2013

2012-2013 NFL Playoff Predictions

Ok, so my projections didn’t exactly pan out. Green Bay lost
to the Minnesota
which got the Vikings in and cost the Packers their bye. Houston
lost to Indy which cost the Texans home field advantage and a first round bye. Washington
capped off the week by beating the Cowboys and winning the NFC East. Where do we stand now?

AFCNFC

1) Denver Broncos 1) Atlanta Falcons

2) New England Patriots 2)
San Francisco
49ers

3) Houston Texans 3) Green Bay Packers

4) Baltimore Ravens 4) Washington Redskins

5) Indianapolis Colts 5) Seattle Seahawks

6) Cincinnati Bengals 6) Minnesota Vikings

Looking at the brackets, a couple of teams stand out on each
side. In the AFC the Broncos are the
hottest team in football, winning their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in 9 of
those games and holding opponents under 20 in 7 of them. Peyton looks poised for a deep playoff
run. Conversely, the Texans stumble into
the playoffs having lost 3 of their last 4 regular season games. Granted, each of those losses (@NE, vMIN,
@IND) came to teams in the playoffs, but Houston
was visibly outplayed in all three of those games.

The Redskins may have been the last team to punch a
postseason ticket, but they own the game’s second longest current wining streak
at 7. Everyone’s in love with Seattle,
and while I’m not saying I won’t necessarily pick Seattle to win that matchup,
I’m certainly not going to ignore what RGIII and Alfred Morris have been doing
offensively and what Jim Haslett has been scheming defensively. The Falcons have been doing their best Rodney
Dangerfield impression, getting no respect from the football world during their
13-3 season. Lots of names are being
tossed around as potential champions in this wide open race, but it usually takes
a while to get to the Falcons. Will they
pull another disappearing act, or is this their year?

Wild Card Predictions

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)

Saturday (4:30, NBC)

No other playoff matchup pits teams going in such polar
opposite directions as does this one. I
already mentioned the Texans’ slide.
Their opponent Sunday has won 7 of their last 8 games including three in
a row (@PHI, @PIT, vBAL). The Texans
look horribly out of synch on offense and all of a sudden aren’t the ground
game juggernauts we’re used to seeing.

Houston
has the better defensive reputation, but they’re struggling to stop the
opposition and aren’t getting big plays from their linebackers. JJ Watt is likely going to be the NFL’s
Defensive POY, but he can’t do it alone.
Cincinnati
on the other hand is keeping their opponents off the scoreboard, not allowing a
single team to score more than 20 during their last 8 games. That’s not what a Houston team that scored 16, 6, and 14 in
those three recent losses wants to see.

This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Wild Card round; same
teams, same place. Houston won that game 31-10 with a dominant
second half defensive effort. When I
think about the word “dominant” and how it applies to these two teams right
now, I’d say the Bengals defensive line is the unit playing at the highest
level. Will a struggling Texans run game
be able to get back on track against Geno Atkins and company? The Texans must be able to run the football
if they’re going to make a run in the playoffs.

Momentum means a lot this time of year, and I’m simply going
with the team that’s playing the best football.
There are no bad teams in the playoffs, and there’s no reason to think
the stage will be too large for the Bengals.
They’ve been playing playoff football for over a month. I’m also trusting that Andy Dalton will
perform better in his second playoff appearance. I don’t think the Texans will be able to flip
the switch. Houston’s season comes to a crashing halt.

Bengals 23

Texans 17

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Saturday (8:00, NBC)

Does Adrian Peterson have your attention Packers? The freak of nature tallied 409 rushing yards
and three total TDs in his two games against Green Bay this season. Last week’s win in Minnesota was huge for both teams. The Packers lost the game and both the #2
seed and bye week, while the Vikings needed the win to get the NFC’s last
spot.

The keys for both teams are obvious. The Packers will want to get out to an early
multi-score lead and reduce how much the Vikings are able to lean on
Peterson. That’s the best way to take
him out of the game. Conversely, the
Vikings are going to need their defense to travel and allow them to feed
Peterson repeatedly on offense. For me,
it’s about Christian Ponder. Will he
repeat his week 17 masterpiece, or will he struggle badly like he did a month
ago in Green Bay? I really don’t see him being nearly as
efficient with the ball as he was in last week’s upset.

Green Bay
must do a better job of controlling the edges of the line of scrimmage on both
sides of the ball. In my mind that’s the
biggest reason they lost to the Vikings last week. I don’t see the Packers falling into another
early 13-0 hole at home this week, and I don’t see the sledding being as easy
for Ponder and the Vikings as it was last week.

Charles Woodson and Randall Cobb will be back. The Packers are fielding their full arsenal
of receivers for the first time since week 4.
With Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, and
Cobb all in the mix you’ve really got your hands full. Talk about picking your poison.

Colder temperatures generally means slower offense, which I
think will hurt the Vikings more so than the Packers, despite the Vikings being
the run-heavy team. Ponder’s play action
mid-range passing game won’t be as efficient in the projected frigid
conditions. Rodgers is Rodgers. He’s used to this. The Packers can’t have the defensive lapses
they had in the Metrodome or the Vikings will take them out for the second week
in a row.

You’ve got to appreciate what Adrian Peterson has done this
season. He’s the best running back in
the game and is poised to possibly win both the MVP and Comeback POY
awards. How insane was the year he had
coming off a torn ACL? He’s the epitome
of “you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him”.

I think Peterson gets his, but I don’t see the Packers going
one and done for the second year in a row.
I’m going with the big game team to win a big game.

Packers 34

Vikings 23

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Sunday (1:00, CBS)

This is the emotional game of the week. In one corner you’ve got Andrew Luck’s
storybook season of taking a 2-14 football team from worst of 2012, to
projected poor 2012 squad, to an 11-5 playoff team. Then you’ve got Colts coach Chuck Pagano’s
battle with leukemia and how that has inspired his football team to play above
their heads for much of the season.

Baltimore
isn’t without inspiration. Future HOFer
Ray Lewis announced this week that this will be his last season. Lewis will be back on the field this week,
returning from a torn triceps that has sidelined him since October. This is a guy that gets amped up every game
of his life. Imagine how much harder
those veteran Ravens, especially on the defensive side of the ball, are going
to play for Ray this week, not wanting to see their teammate’s career come to a
close.

Indy has won 9 of 11 with their only losses coming to the
conference’s #2 and #3 seeds. It’s not
pretty, but they have been doing what it takes to win games. They rank 22nd in rushing offense,
29th in rushing defense, and 21st in passing
defense. Luck may not be as flashy as
RGIII, but he’s my Offensive ROY. RGIII
has Alfred Morris and a solid offensive line.
Russell Wilson has Marshawn Lynch and a beast of a defense. Luck was maestro on offense, chugging out
yards, extending drives, and putting up points; all this while being sacked 41
times on the season (4th most in football).

You really don’t know what you’re going to get from the
Ravens right now. Even if you take away
last week’s meaningless game against the Bengals when they sat everyone, the
had lost 3 of 4 before that. They made
the Giants look bad in week 16, but the Giants also got spanked the week before
by Atlanta. Baltimore
lost huge momentum with that week 13 loss v. the Benless Steelers. They lost a late lead the next week at Washington and
eventually lost the game in OT. The
Broncos then smacked them around at home.
Was that Giant game an aberration?

Joe Flacco is as flaky as they come, but he does have a
winning (5-4) playoff record. They won’t
be able to go deep in the playoffs against the likes of New England and Denver with Flacco
playing schizophrenic football. Ray Rice
is unquestionably the best player on offense for Baltimore, and he’s the key to the game in my
opinion. The Ravens must feed him the
football and pound away at this sieve-like Colts run defense. I believe we’ll see the Ravens do just that
early and often, dictating the tempo and wearing down Indy’s defense in order
to control the latter half of the game.

I have great appreciation for what Indy has done this year,
but Baltimore’s
veteran show up and play a very Ravens-like game.

Ravens 31

Colts 17

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)

Sunday (4:30, FOX)

Now this one should be entertaining. You’ve got the rallying Redskins, led by the
zone read combo of RGIII and Alfred Morris, and the Seahawks, led by the zone
read combo of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Both teams are red hot. As I mentioned earlier, the Redskins 7 game
streak is second best to the Broncos 11, and the Seahawks have won 7 of 8,
including several dominating efforts.

Seattle
heads into this one as the only road favorite in wild card round. Does that mean anything? They’re a much better home team than road
team, but given the way they’re executing on both sides of the ball, does it
really matter where they’re playing?

If you watched RGIII against the Cowboys on SNF, he’s
clearly not 100%. Unless he’s gotten a
lot more stability and confidence in the knee this week, I don’t think he’ll be
as effective against Seattle’s defense as he was
against Dallas. Seattle
is big and quick, and the ability of the guys in their secondary will allow
them to commit more defenders to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to slow
RGIII and Morris. I expect Seattle to stack against
the run and force RGIII to make plays in the passing game with his limited
weapons.

I don’t think Seattle will be
forced to make as many adjustments on offense as Washington will. That’s where I think the Seahawks will have
the key edge. They’ll be able to do what
they do best more often than the Redskins.
Washington’s QB gets more of the rookie
QB spotlight, but I trust Wilson
with the football more than RGIII. He
has veteran focus already and doesn’t make mistakes that put his defense in bad
spots or his offense in catch up mode.
In his last 8 games, Wilson
has a 16-2 TD to INT ratio. Are you
kidding me?!

Seattle
was the league’s only team to go undefeated at home. That doesn’t help them a bit, as they’ll be
on the road throughout the playoffs unless the Vikings make an unlikely deep
run. Their biggest flaw is their lack of
positive consistency on the road. This
season they lost at Arizona, St.
Louis, San Francisco, Detroit, and Miami. Only San
Francisco made the playoffs, and the other teams
combined for 23 wins. So this is going
to be the same old story right?

When picking this game, I ask – who do I trust more? In my mind it’s no question. I love the way Seattle is winning football games right
now. They’re peaking at the absolute
right time in every phase of the game. I
think this elite defense will be too much for a limited RGIII and that their
offense will handle Haslett’s incessant blitzes. Seattle
marches on.

Seahawks 27

Redskins 20

Remaining Games

Bye Week Teams

Here’s my take on the chances of the four teams on a bye:

Broncos – sitting pretty; road to New Orleans goes through a tough home field.

Patriots – will be even more dangerous with Gronk back; I like
their chances.

Falcons – show me; likely to draw tough Seattle defense in second round.

49ers – appreciating the bye more than anyone; they need
Justin Smith.

If these results hold true, that would set up the following
matchups next week:

AFCNFC

Bengals @ Broncos Seahawks
@ Falcons

Ravens @ Patriots Packers
@ 49ers

My predictions for the rest of the way (that I’m sure I’ll
have to adjust next week):