Predicting the nominees: Oscar announcement set for Tuesday

Friday

Jan 29, 2010 at 12:01 AMJan 29, 2010 at 11:20 AM

The Oscars will be bigger than ever this year, as the field for best picture expands from five to 10 nominees. That means fan favorites like “Avatar,” “Star Trek” and “The Hangover” just might make the cut, whereas in past years they would not.

Al Alexander

The Oscars will be bigger than ever this year, as the field for best picture expands from five to 10 nominees. That means fan favorites like “Avatar,” “Star Trek” and “The Hangover” just might make the cut, whereas in past years they would not.

It’s all part of a plan to boost ratings for an Oscar telecast that hit a nadir last year, when not one of the indie-minded best picture nominees crossed the magical $100 million level at the box office. (“Slumdog Millionaire” did eventually achieve that mark after winning best picture.)

That won’t be a problem this year with “Avatar,” history’s biggest money earner, leading the charge. Good thing, too, because without the interest that James Cameron’s mega-blockbuster has created, there would be nothing interesting at all about this year’s ceremony.

Just look at the all-important acting categories, where Jeff Bridges, Mo’Nique and newcomer Christoph Waltz rank as prohibitive favorites to take home the little gold guy.

Only in the best actress category – where the slight favorite, Sandra Bullock, faces a stiff challenge from Meryl Streep – is there a hint of drama.

Still, if you’re like me (and, yes, I’m aware there are fewer and fewer of us), you won’t be able to resist the Hollywood glitz, politics and backstabbing that are so very much a part of the awards.

But who will be nominated? The answer comes Tuesday morning, when all names will be revealed. But why wait until then when my crystal ball is so clear? Well, maybe not perfectly clear, but pretty clear.

So without further ado, let me introduce my predictions on whose names will be called out Tuesday, beginning with:

Locks: Coming off her wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards, Mo’Nique heads into the Oscars as the overwhelming favorite for her haunting portrayal of an angry, abusive mother in “Precious.” She’s a shoo-in, as are “Up in the Air’s” unbeatable tandem of Kendrick and Farmiga.

On the bubble: The remaining two spots are anybody’s guess. But don’t be surprised if voters give a shout-out to the 88-year-old White in tribute to her longevity. The ballot-casters might, however, have a few qualms about honoring someone playing a role as crass as her foul-mouthed granny in “The Proposal.” As for Cruz and Cotillard, they can pretty much figure on watching the Oscars from their couches thanks to “Nine’s” minuscule box office. Which leaves the M&Ms, Moore and Mirren, who I think will fill the remaining spots. Why? Because voters love classy actresses, especially ones with resumes as glowing as theirs.

Locks: Like Mo’Nique, the previously unknown Waltz has won every award there is to be won. And that will surely continue for the rest of the awards season. His closest competition – and it’s really not very close – is Harrelson, who gave perhaps the best performance of his career as the hardened Army officer in the criminally underseen “The Messenger.”

On the bubble: Again, the remaining spots are mere window dressing and a chance to acknowledge lifetime achievements. That’s why I think voters will go for Plummer, Molina and Damon. But if it were up to me, those spots would go to Farrell, showing off his lofty singing talents in “Crazy Heart,” and the two unknowns from across the pond, McKay and Capaldi, who were both larger than life in films almost too small to contain their talents.

Locks: On the strength of her shocking Golden Globe and SAG wins, Bullock can start picking out her gown and writing her Oscar acceptance speech now. Still, don’t count out Streep, also a Golden Globe winner, who was so amazing as Julia Child that I cannot believe voters – when it comes time to cast their final ballots – will overlook work that was superior to Bullock’s in every way. But, hey, she’s Streep; and sadly too many people now take her greatness for granted.

On the bubble: Among the also-rans, Sidibe is the closest to being a shoo-in for her wrenching portrayal of an abused and neglected teen in “Precious.” As for the fourth spot; I think it will go to Mulligan, although I believe her clout is fading now that voters realize “An Education” wasn’t as great as some critics proclaimed. That leaves one spot for Laurent and Blunt to fight over, with Blunt winning, simply because more voters are familiar with her than with Laurent. If it were up to me, though, it would be Laurent, who was amazing as a French resistance leader in “Basterds.”

Locks: It’s starting to sound like a broken record, but yet again, this is a race that is all but over, with Bridges prevailing. Deservedly so, too, because his drunken, washed-up singer in “Crazy Heart” was the finest work of his career, and no one came close to matching it. Joining him in the front row of the Kodak Theatre on March 7 will be Clooney and Renner, two guys who grew out of the slums of TV into charismatic leading men. They also share one other trait: They both dazzled with their heartfelt portrayals of committed loners who get their jollies from their work: Clooney dismantling people’s lives and Renner dismantling bombs.

On the bubble: Firth, who has never been nominated despite many a fine performance, would seem to finally be in line for some well-deserved kudos for his portrayal of a gay man tormented by grief. The fifth spot is not so certain. At one time, it seemed like Freeman would be a lock for his dead-on depiction of South African leader Nelson Mandela, but those hopes may have faded along with the film’s mediocre box office returns. If he falters, look for the unknown but terrific Stuhlbarg to squeeze in.

Locks: Although I hated his movie and what it represents (glitz over substance), the smug and narcissistic Cameron is the early favorite to win the Oscar. Hopefully, voters will wise up in the next couple of weeks and give the prize to the person who truly deserves it, Bigelow. And that’s not just because she’s the ex-wife of Cameron, the self-proclaimed King of the World. No, it’s because in her Iraq war drama, she created some of the best, most gut-churning suspense since Hitchcock in his prime. Although they weren’t quite up to her level, Reitman and Tarantino also deserve to be here; because, unlike Cameron, they are directors who know how to tell compelling, unconventional stories that don’t rip off “Dances With Wolves.”

On the bubble: That leaves one open spot, and who gets it is anybody’s guess. About six weeks ago, it looked like it would be Eastwood, but that was before “Invictus” failed to dazzle audiences and critics. Ditto for Rob Marshall for his DOA “Nine.” Daniels would seem the likely choice, given the amazing work he did in coaxing superb performances out of newcomer Sidibe and former Pepsi pitch woman Mo’Nique. He would be my choice, too. But I have a hunch voters will continue to show their love for the quirky Coen brothers and give them the nod.

Locks: This is the category that has everyone anxious because the field has been expanded from the traditional five to 10. It’s meant to boost TV ratings, which is fine, except it in turn dilutes the strength of the field and opens the door for a movie to win best picture with only minimal support from voters. That means you, “Avatar,” which should win every technical award, as it deserves, but not best director or picture. No, that honor should go to either “Up,” “Up in the Air,” “Inglourious Basterds” or “The Hurt Locker,” all of which are likely nominees.

On the bubble: The other five openings likely will be filled with slightly lesser fare like “Star Trek,” “Distirct 9,” “An Education” and “Precious.” But if there is justice, those spots will go to the smart and sassy “In the Loop,” the ingeniously clever “(500) Days of Summer,” the tremendously well-acted “The Messenger,” the gorgeously animated “Coraline” and either of the year’s two superior documentaries, “The Cove” or “Food, Inc.”

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