With the Rugby World Cup about to begin, we thought it would be interesting to find out who is most likely to win the tournament, as well as the key games that will impact who reaches the knockout stage.

Who is most likely to win?

The table below uses data from theroar.com.au to give a prediction of which country is most likely to win the Rugby World Cup. It predicts New Zealand are most probable to win the tournament, but there is still over a 50% chance another team will triumph. Out of the home nations, it is England that are most likely to be victorious, with a 21.3% chance of being crowned champions.

It is worth noting that while statistical based predictions can be accurate, they are by no means a certainty. With that being said, let’s have a look at the key games, which have been organised by group.

Pool

Country

Quarter Finalist

Semi Finalist

Finalist

Champion

A

England

85.3%

78.3%

44.1%

21.3%

A

Australia

71.3%

47.0%

23.4%

8.4%

A

Wales

42.7%

20.6%

7.6%

2.1%

A

Fiji

0.7%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

A

Uruguay

<0.1%

<0.1%

<01%

<0.1%

B

South Africa

99.3%

52.8%

19.3%

9.9%

B

Scotland

67%

9.2%

1.2%

0.3%

B

Samoa

29.7%

1.9%

1.2%

<0.1%

B

Japan

3.3%

0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

B

U.S.A

0.6%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

C

New Zealand

99.9%

86.7%

64.1%

47.8%

C

Argentina

85.5%

24.7%

5.1%

0.7%

C

Tonga

13.9%

1.0%

<0.1%

<0.1%

C

Georgia

0.7%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

C

Nambia

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

D

Ireland

98.7%

58.6%

25.2%

7.4%

D

France

95.2%

28.7%

8.6%

2.2%

D

Italy

6.0%

0.3%

<0.1%

<0.1%

D

Canada

0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

D

Romania

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

The key games

Pool A: Key Games

Pool A has been tipped as the group of death, as only two teams out of Wales, Australia and England will go through. If Wales can get a victory against England or Australia, they can massively increase their chances of progression to the knockout stage. The main games to look out for in pool A are:

England V Wales – Sat September 26th KO 20:00

England V Australia – Sat Oct 3rd KO 16:45

Australia V Wales – Sat Oct 10th KO 16:45

Pool B: Key Games

South Africa and Scotland are favourites to take first and second place in pool B, but with Japan taking points of South Africa, the group is completely open. The runner up and winner of this group, will play the winner and runner up from pool A. This means that England and Scotland, could meet in the quarter final. The main games from pool B are:

South Africa V Samoa – Sat Sep 26th KO 16:45

South Africa V Scotland – Sat Oct 3rd KO 16:45

Samoa V Scotland – Sat Oct 10th KO 14:30

Pool C: Key Game

In pool C, New Zealand and Argentina are huge favourites to go through. If Ireland advance from pool D, they will play either the runner up or winner from this pool. The game below is most likely to decide the overall group winner.

New Zealand V Argentina – Sun Sep 20th KO 16:45

Pool D: Key Games

Pool D is another close group, with France, Ireland and Italy battling for the top two spots. The team that finishes top is likely to avoid New Zealand in the quarter final. With Ireland being eliminated at the quarter final stage in the last five tournaments, they would benefit by evading New Zealand. The main games in pool D are:

France V Italy – Sat Sep 19th KO 20:00

Ireland V Italy – Sun Oct 4th KO 16:45

France V Ireland – Sun Oct 11th KO 16:45

It will be very interesting to see if there will be a New Zealand, England final as predicted. The great thing about Rugby is shocks are always possible, as shown by the Japan, South Africa game. The Rugby World Cup kicked off on the 18th of September, and the final will take place on 31st October 2015.

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