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Football / Preview / Topline 26 12 2010

Topline (26/12/2010)

Boxing Day's Topline contains five recommendations and includes a selection in Bolton v WBA at 15:00.

League One: Leyton Orient v MK Dons (Sun, 13:00)

There have been at least three goals in 14 of Leyton Orient’s last 25 home games including five of eight this season and in each of their last seven matches home and away. Furthermore, they’ve had +2.5 goals in 12/17 home games against middle-third teams since the start of last season. MK Dons have had over-goals in 18/27 away games (13 +3.5 goals) and in 7/10 trips to bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Paddy Power

Premier League: Blackpool v Liverpool (Sun, 15:00)

Liverpool’s away league form remains poor. They have won just one way game this season and only 1/8 trips to middle-third sides since 2009/10. Blackpool have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. They have scored in all six of their home games so far and they have netted twice on five occasions. With Liverpool keeping just two away clean sheets this season, over 2.5 goals is an attractive option at 1.84 but the Reds have won only 2/19 away matches when conceding and they can be laid at odds on here.

Recommendation: Lay Liverpool Win 1.80, Betfair

Premier League: Bolton v WBA (Sun, 15:00)

Bolton are in great form with 4/6 home wins and just one home loss this season. 7/9 of their games have had +2.5 goals while five have had +3.5 goals. Interestingly, the two games that failed to settle the +2.5 goals market had -1.5 goals. All of the hosts last six home fixtures against middle-third sides have had +2.5 goals as have 7/9 WBA away matches this season (5/9 +3.5 goals). The Premier League new-boys have conceded in all nine away games and they have let in at least two goals in six of the fixtures.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.20, Sportingbet

Championship: Derby v Doncaster (Sun, 15:00)

There have been at least three goals in 9/11 Derby home games this season and in six of their last nine matches hosting middle-third sides. Doncaster have had over-goals in eight of their last 10 away games (six +3.5 goals) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 games. Moreover, they’ve had +2.5 goals in seven of eight trips to middle-third teams this season with six having at least four goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.87, Betfair

Belgium: Gent v Club Brugges (Sun, 17:00)

So far this season both teams have had 7/10 +2.5 goals, home and away respectively, with Gent scoring in all of their last 17 matches (h/a) and the visitors, Club Brugge failing to score in only 4/20 this season (h/a). Based on our analysis the +2.5 goal price should be closer to 1.3 than 1.67 so clearly there is value in the market but our policy with these reports is too look for opportunities at around the even money mark. There is a healthy return of +3.5, especially when Gent have conceded at home or Brugge scored away, but it’s weaker against their respective opposition type which is why we would support +3 goals.