Saturday, December 02, 2006

How the Opposition Could Win (or Lose) - by Alexandra Beech

December 2, 2006 - by Alexandra Beech

While the international media and some polls have predicted an easy victory for Hugo Chavez on Sunday, many respected analysts believe that Manuel Rosales has a chance of winning, given certain conditions. These would include:

- The abstention rate is high. Rosales has more "hardcore" votersthan Chavez. If the hardcore voters who support Chavez abstain, theirabstention would favor Rosales;

- Chavez supporters feel over-confident. The PDVSA-financed pollswhich gave Chavez a double-digit lead over Rosales may have a"backlash effect,"; leading Chavez supporters to believe he's going towin, and that they don't need to vote;

- Fairness prevails and fear of reprisals diminishes. The "witnesses"at the polling stations serve as a deterrent against fraud, allowingthem to report problems promptly. Enough voters trust that the vote issecret, opting for the candidate of their choice.

Subtle Kinds of Fraud

The most looming issue in the election is fraud. The Chavez governmenthas so efficiently denounced in the international media that theopposition will claim fraud that any actual and legitimate claims offraud will now be scrutinized under pre-established filters ofskepticism and politics.

Because the Chavez government controls the electoral authorities, (ashas been reported by the international media), problems which havealso been documented by international observers in past electionscould re-surface. These include:

- The "relocation" of voters from one voting center to another, astook place in the 2004 referendum, when voters discovered they hadbeen re-registered to vote hundreds of miles away;

- Voting centers may open late at centers located within opposition strongholds;

- Voting materials may arrive late at centers within opposition strongholds;

- The "cotillion" or voting materials may be incomplete. These wouldinclude "cuadernos electorales" or the lists of registered voters foreach center, as well as indelible ink, (without it voting cannot takeplace), and other materials;

- Technical glitches which would slow down voting at centers locatedwithin opposition strongholds, such as malfunctioning fingerprintdetection technology. (During the referendum, Chavez himself tried touse the fdt several times before placing his vote. Eventually, he wasallowed to vote without it, but this may not happen at all centers.);

- Thugs, (well described and photographed in the most recent New YorkTimes article, "As Crime Soars, Chavez Coasts") could intimidate andscare voters outside centers located within opposition strongholds;

- State media, which violated electoral laws in favor of Chavez duringthe campaign, may transmit "exit polls" conducted by Chavezsupporters, (such as one planned by a Tupamaros group and reported bythe same NYT article); these polls would inevitably give Chavez astrong lead, discouraging opposition voters from bothering to vote;

- Chavez supporters, once they've voted, could stand in line again toslow down voting; (Chavez supporters are encouraging this practice inat least one region);

- Mass public transportation could become unavailable; (in Anaco,PDVSA contracted over two hundred buses to transport only Chavistas tovoting centers);

- The use of wireless devices to receive and send vital informationfrom the voting PC's or machines to illegal "parallel servers" to showvoting trends. On Saturday morning, an elections council officialexhorted voters not to use cell phones in areas surrounding votingcenters, while claiming their use was not prohibited. Why?

As Venezuelans decide on their political future on Sunday, theconditions prevail for a fair election. While the international mediahas already given Chavez an easy victory, reputable pollsters, such asPenn, Schoen and Berland, who polled for Bill Clinton and Tony Blair,have claimed that the candidates are in a tight race.

Only Venezuelans will choose their president on Sunday, but theinternational community may need to support their choice. This supportwill begin by denouncing any irregularities observed on Sunday.

About Me

I just would like to make people aware of issues that need to be taken care of to improve and enhance our lives
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I have a Master of Science degree - Management/Human Resources Specialization at the University of Maryland University College.
Bachelor in General Studies degree, major in Liberal Arts with emphasis in French, History of Art, and Photojournalism, University of Kansas, Lawrence. Honor: Recognized by Cambridge Who's Who to be profiled for achievements in civil rights. Recognized by Cambridge Worldwide Who’S Who as VIP on registry of executives, professionals and entrepreneurs 2012-2013 edition.
http://cambridgewhoswho.org/