2005: year of the Rooster and of dark horses

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Barry O'Farrell is one of the few genuine wits in the NSW
Parliament. His is often a self-deprecating humour, one which helps
soften the image of one of the Liberal Party's most able political
operatives.

As Deputy Leader, he's often had to defuse leadership
speculation, doing so in his own style. In 1999, when Kerry
Chikarovski began to attract criticism, the hirsute and rotund
O'Farrell provided a dual pledge of allegiance: "When I lose weight
and shave off the beard, then you'll know I'm after the
Liberal leadership." A year later, asked to repeat his vows, he
said: "When I'm at the supermarket, I keep going past the shaving
cream and straight to the ice-cream."

And so it was that when he finally did shave off his beard
during the school holidays in mid-2000, O'Farrell's bare-faced
"disloyalty" made headlines.

Last year almost as much was made of his dramatic weight loss.
He has taken to the treadmill in the parliamentary gym and the man
is now a healthy shadow of himself. Predictably, the Government has
made much of this transformation, stirring the leadership pot and
attempting to spook his leader, John Brogden. But could there be
more to this than mere mischief-making?

The reality is that inside the NSW Liberals there is no momentum
- or heart - for another last-minute leadership switch. But
internal unease about Brogden's ability to connect with the
electorate is rife. The Prime Minister, John Howard, has clearly
signalled he has NSW in his sights, and he is not a great fan of
Brogden's either. O'Farrell, on the other hand, has been one of his
most senior, trusted staffers and strategists and is still on the
right side of 45. A loss for Brogden might just see the PM's newly
svelte and smooth-cheeked man get up. In spite of his
protestations.

While we're on the subject of leadership, there is increasing
talk around Macquarie Street of an imminent reshuffle of Bob Carr's
cabinet, potentially after the finalisation of the Independent
Commission Against Corruption's Orange Grove report. There are a
number of newer ministers - and a handful of the more seasoned lot
- who have scored one too many Fs on their report cards, and the
ALP caucus is unsettled.

Carr's electoral majority is enormous and the swag of key
marginal seats pushed onto the safe side of the electoral pendulum
in the 2003 poll will act as a massive buffer even under the
expected big swing against the Government. It will be a gargantuan
task for the Coalition to win power despite Labor's current woes.
The debate now, however, is whether Labor's best chances are with
Carr at the helm or with an entirely new face in the hot seat.

The problem is: who is up to it? While the leadership aspirants
who control the numbers remain the same (Carl Scully, perhaps,
Craig Knowles ...), in the end, when it comes to the ALP caucus, it
will always back the horse called self-interest. If Carr should
pack his bags before 2007, factional allegiances will have to take
a back seat.

The Health Minister, Morris Iemma, has proved himself a strong
performer and good minister. But is he a potential premier? Ditto
John Della Bosca, who has never quite mastered the art of talking
to a TV camera. Michael Costa's recent performance has dimmed his
chances, and the Police Minister from Central Casting, John
Watkins, hasn't quite cut it either (and he'd have to switch
factions).

Snort all you like, but that leaves Frank Sartor. There were
many who pooh-poohed his ability to wear the Lord Mayor's mantle -
and later, a minister's crown - and they were proved wrong. This
column will stick its neck out and suggest that at the very least,
Cranky Franky should move into a more senior, key portfolio. And
who knows what might happen if he makes the trains run on time.