The disconnect is that I don't really see how the team can have the sort of improvement that you project for them in years 2 and 3 without contributions from Marner and Nylander that do have them making exceptional showings as rookies and second year players. Absent that it seems like we're talking about a 20-25 point increase from year one to year two almost entirely on the backs of Kadri, Gardiner and Rielly.

If I wanted to get more specific I think that I could see them getting 35-40 points as rookies. I don't think that's crazy for players of their draft position and experience to score on a non-playoff team. I think that having a couple of young and energenic forwards like that replace some of the dead weight that we'll see on this years team would help result in a jump that I mentioned (I had it as 17 points). It would also partially be on the backs of those players mentioned and as a result of some more smart moves from the guys upstairs.

It just doesn't seem like you've allowed for any margin of error here. At all.

That's fair, really. It's a very optimistic plan that I wrote out. Nylander could get hurt and have his progression stunted. Marner's size might keep him out of the NHL entirely. Another losing season could effect Rielly negatively. Babcock might hate Gardiner and Kadri and force them out.

But I also don't think that this is the absolute-best-case-scenario. I don't think Chicago knew that they were getting the Jonathan Toews we know today when they drafted him 3rd overall. They got lucky Johnson and Staal went ahead of him. The next year the lottery bumped them from 5th overall to 1st overall and they picked Kane instead of Karl Alzner. Marner could blow past expectations and become a top-5 centre in the league, we could win the lottery next season and draft Auston Matthews.

But again, sure, I will admit that in terms of a worst-case and best-case scenario my plan there leans towards the latter.

As has been mentioned, I'm concerned that some might automatically assume that a top 10 pick is going to be a good-great player. As I've looked through the draft 2005-2010, there are definitely some "meh" players taken in the top 10.

I'm starting to think this thing is going to take a good 5 years if they don't start getting more multiple first round picks, or alternatively, they draft some diamonds later in the draft.

TMLfans.ca

I've always figured it would take at least 5 years for the Leafs to become Cup contenders if they went for a true rebuild. And that's if they get most of it right along the way.

I would be looking to move players like JVR, Kadri and Gardiner. That just seems to be the best way to potentially acquire elite talent that will be in the desired age range. That's not to say the Leafs can't win by keeping those players, but in my armchair GM role, I'd go for a full teardown and rebuild. The first step is stocking the organization with as many high end prospects as possible, which they finally do have a good start on. It's not just drafting- the whole development system, timely trades, signings etc. all has to function at a high level. But it does start with drafting.

There are many random factors involved in such a process and no guarantees. The Oilers are usually cited as exhibit A for not going this route, but I would do it.

As has been mentioned, I'm concerned that some might automatically assume that a top 10 pick is going to be a good-great player. As I've looked through the draft 2005-2010, there are definitely some "meh" players taken in the top 10.

I'm starting to think this thing is going to take a good 5 years if they don't start getting more multiple first round picks, or alternatively, they draft some diamonds later in the draft.

If they don't get this, there's a good chance they get stuck in Oilers' territory. If you don't hit on quality players outside the top 10, you're not going to progress significantly.

Logged

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

I don't predict anything other than to say that real changes on the ice probably won't be seen until Year 3, on.

Also, a lot depends on how Kadri, Gardner, and JVR are viewed, whether they will be trade bait (to get higher returns) or whether they will be part of the rebuild. And what of Phaneuf, Bernier, Reimer?

The Leafs have young up and coming (but green) goaltenders in their system and it's certain they'll want to have one of them playing with the team eventually. Goaltending is important and shouldn't be overlooked. Even if one has the best defence on earth, and a mediocre netminder, it won't be enough. Goaltending is going to be an issue and hopefully the Leafs will address the long-term of it.

Overall, I don't think the team will show any significant signs of improvement (of challenging or even making the playoffs) until Year 3 onward. To improve in the standings and points totals will be indicative enough that the team will have been going in the proper direction.

2015-16: Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.

Prediction review. Mostly not right

Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back.He IRed in early Feb. Close!

Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks.This one was a gimme.

Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. If the Sharks make the final, then this one becomes true.

Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). JvR injury put a damper on this, but draft/offseason trade was more likely anyway. Kadri played himself into re-signing.

Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Frattin and Panik were moved in packages (sort of... Panik --> Morin --> Stalock + pick), but Robidas and Bozak remain in the mix. We did get salary dump back for the Phanuef package.

Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats.Happy to be wrong on this one. We'll see how happy come April 30th.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.We do have 12 picks! Kadri won't be traded. JvR is worth way more on the market. There should be some sour teams coming out of these playoffs who would move D/picks for premiere scoring.

Quote

2016-17: Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.

This will need adjustment. For one thing, Marner can't play for the Marlies unless he's with the Knights and they end their season early.Rielly did re-up for 6 years! Even cheaper than $6M!I don't think we'll trade Gardiner with Phaneuf out of the picture.Bozak is definitely out once we find a taker.If we play the heck out of our youth, we can still have a promising bottom-5 season and another good kick at the lottery.I believe Kapanen marinates for another year on the Marlies, and Percy gets packaged (what with all our promising but waiver-eligible defencemen). Leipsic and Loov we can probably keep down longer due to the expiring contracts still on the roster. I'm hoping for a lot of movement on that front prior to the season starting to free up space.

Nylander is in. Marner should be in. Brown, Soshnikov, and Hyman push for roles (and probably get them).

Your were not that far off and you may be Herman but you are not the Amazing Kreskin

You don't know that. Wait 'til he reaches for that slip of paper in his pocket... and it says Highlander!!

Logged

“How many people from Ontario play in the National Hockey League? Once we make it safe, they’re coming home. Mark my words, they’ll be coming.”~ Mike Bacock, in an open letter to Steven StamkosDrew Doughty John Tavares

“How many people from Ontario play in the National Hockey League? Once we make it safe, they’re coming home. Mark my words, they’ll be coming.”~ Mike Bacock, in an open letter to Steven StamkosDrew Doughty John Tavares