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Friday, 10 June 2016

POWER SECTOR REFORM: PROBING THE HIATUS IN FASHOLA’S ROADMAP

Barrister Babatunde Fashola, SAN

The minister
with responsibility for Nigeria’s pivotal power sector, Barrister Babatunde Fashola (SAN), has recently released what he
calls “a roadmap for change” in the
sector. It is commendable that his effort in this arena will be underscored by
planning and more so that he has chosen to share this plan with the public.
This conveys a sense of mission.

Fashola’s
roadmap is not different in any material way from the August 2010 “Roadmap for Power Sector Reform” the
robust roadmap that was developed by the previous government. Incidentally,
despite the lofty agenda of that apparently painstakingly-crafted plan, six
years later, Nigeria still totters on circa 5000MW of power-generating and
-transmission capacity respectively.

While such
factors as corruption and insincerity of purpose can be listed among the causes
of the failure of that otherwise meticulous plan, there is no doubt that hordes
of genuine problems many of which hallmark the famed difficulty of doing
business in Nigeria are also contributors. One of the most instructive but
least recognised of these problems, in my view, has been citizen disinterest,
arising from an inability or unwillingness of government to carry citizens
along on its implementation journey. Not unexpectedly, therefore, initial
public excitement soon gave way first to apathy and thereafter, sheer derision.
If Fashola’s roadmap is not to go the way of its predecessor, it is pertinent
that it is ardently confronted and interrogated by the average citizen.

Even without
expressly stating it, Fashola may have tactically reduced Nigeria’s power
target over the next five years by half. While the original roadmap set a
target of 40000MW by 2020, Fashola has cut this to 20000MW, stating that the
Transmission Company of Nigeria, “TCN, has expressed a desire” to increase
transmission in a stepwise manner from today’s 5000MW through to 20000MW over
the next five years.

What is the
basis of the “desire” by the TCN to increase transmission capacity to 20000MW?
Was it sequel to a proper feasibility study that articulated the technical,
manpower, financial and other considerations?

In the face
of the paucity of information regarding investment in the power sector, the
40000MW target by 2020 has long been unrealistic. But is there anything to
suggest that this new target is realistic? How does the government intend to
catalyze developments in the power sector to achieve a 400 per cent rise in
power generating and transmitting capacity in a mere five years?

Fashola’s
roadmap is silent on the level of funding (including private-sector-led and
other direct foreign investment) that the power sector has so far attracted. Is
this data unavailable or is this a case of inability or unwillingness to gather
and process data? For such vital information is a critical compass of sorts
with which an interested public monitors progress in an industry.

In the same
vein, government needs to let Nigerians know how it intends to plug the gaps in
the areas of capital inflows into the industry. It needs to explain more
tactically, for instance, the imperative of jacking up electricity tariffs.

Government
ministries, departments and agencies have historically been notorious
defaulters in the area of paying electricity bills. What is Fashola’s plan to
redress this? Are there specific incentives with which the power ministry is
enticing investors for instance? Given the challenges that the distribution
companies are facing with installing electricity meters in consumers’ abodes,
why are they not being incentivised to patronise local manufacturers or
assemblers of electricity meters?

What is
government doing with regard to drastically minimizing the nightmare that
conducting business in Nigeria has become for every legitimate business? What
is being done to rid the country of the hordes of rent-seeking roadblocks from
sundry agencies of all levels of government and even local communities?

Incidentally,
Fashola mentions the crucial case of 907 abandoned equipment-bearing containers
at the Lagos ports, but fails to address the more critical issue of the
underlying causes. Would any company deliberately import container loads of
equipment and abandon them at the ports? What is government doing about
reforming the ports and its processes? Should we be realistically talking about
revving up a logistic-intensive power sector and unveiling power targets from
time-to-time when we have an evidently dysfunctional port regime?

Fashola
states that Nigeria’s power generating companies are sub-optimised. For
instance, of their installed 140 turbines which can generate up to 12000MW,
only about 78 which can generate a peak of some 5000MW are operational. Given
that these plants have either been long concessioned or sold to private
investors, what has caused the delay in bringing the plants to full
functionality? Have the plants been so damaged by irregular maintenance over
the years that it is impossible to replace or repair the damaged turbines? Are
the generating companies unable to access the capital to finance these repairs
or replacements? Or is it a case of unavailability of expertise? Fashola merely
gives the impression that the overhaul is currently ongoing which will
guarantee “incremental power.”

Fashola also
talks about an imperative to enrich the power mix by embracing other means of
power generation than water and gas, but does not support this with evidence to
show that anything significant is truly happening in this arena. Is there a blueprint
with which the government intends to tackle this issue for instance? Are there
offshore partners providing the relevant technical support? Is there a timeline
for delivery?

The 2010
roadmap gave a December 2013 deadline for the completion of NIPP projects upon
which they would deliver some 5000MW to the national grid. As this target was
obviously not achieved, what are the remedial plans to help ensure these plants
are finalised? What is the timeline for this?

Fashola has
a big task to rekindle public interest in the power sector. Such interest will
be critical at helping to mobilise social support including oversight for the
activities in the sector. Social oversight will help the industry strive to
achieve set targets even while availing it of the moral and other support with
which to overcome such problems as tariff collection and others.

In
rekindling public interest, Fashola would need to discard the politician garb
and step into the SMART mode of the private sector. He would need to underscore
his objectives with benchmarks that are Specific, Measurable, Actionable,
Result-oriented and Timely. This way, stakeholders can have tangible aspects of
the overall power roadmap on which to demand accountability from the
government. (Guardian)

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