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UPDATED: Forecasters warn of flooding this weekend

Cody Harris, left, and Mason Sherman catch waves on skimboards Friday at Richard Seltzer Park in Panama City Beach on Friday. "We're just trying to catch as many waves as we can before tomorrow," said Harris, "before the wind picks up." There's a good chance that red flags, or double-red flags, will be posted at the beach by Saturday, local officials say.

Andrew P Johnson | The News Herald

By SCOTT CARROLL | News Herald

Published: Friday, August 16, 2013 at 08:43 AM.

PANAMA CITY – Local and state authorities are preparing for flooding across the Florida Panhandle as a tropical weather system moves north over the Gulf of Mexico and another storm system stalls over northern Florida.

Friday, the Florida Division of Emergency Management issued a flash flood watch for the region and urged residents to use caution. The National Weather Service estimated Friday that Bay County is likely to receive 5-7 inches of rain over the weekend.

“Primary threats from this weather system include flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning,” Emergency Management meteorologist Brad Schaaf said in a news release.

An increasingly moist tropical air mass in the southwest Gulf, a stalled storm front in northern Florida, and a regional upper-level disturbance have created highly favorable conditions for heavy rainfall through Saturday, according to NWS. By Sunday, rainfall totals could reach one foot in some isolated areas of the region. River flooding is expected to begin late tonight and continue into next week.

“There’s a deep hole of tropical moisture that’s encountering the front, and that’s helping to build up the showers,” said NWS meteorologist Mark Wool. “And of course flooding is a risk in Bay County. The water table is pretty high, and that’s basically across the county (because of historic rainfall in July).”

Some local meteorologists are calling for less rain over the weekend than predicted by NWS, but are still urging caution.

“Most of what we’re looking at is at least 3-5 inches of rain. … It’s a very similar setup to what we saw over the Fourth of July and that’s why we’re concerned,” WJHG-TV meteorologist Chris Smith said.

PANAMA CITY – Local and state authorities are preparing for flooding across the Florida Panhandle as a tropical weather system moves north over the Gulf of Mexico and another storm system stalls over northern Florida.

Friday, the Florida Division of Emergency Management issued a flash flood watch for the region and urged residents to use caution. The National Weather Service estimated Friday that Bay County is likely to receive 5-7 inches of rain over the weekend.

“Primary threats from this weather system include flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning,” Emergency Management meteorologist Brad Schaaf said in a news release.

An increasingly moist tropical air mass in the southwest Gulf, a stalled storm front in northern Florida, and a regional upper-level disturbance have created highly favorable conditions for heavy rainfall through Saturday, according to NWS. By Sunday, rainfall totals could reach one foot in some isolated areas of the region. River flooding is expected to begin late tonight and continue into next week.

“There’s a deep hole of tropical moisture that’s encountering the front, and that’s helping to build up the showers,” said NWS meteorologist Mark Wool. “And of course flooding is a risk in Bay County. The water table is pretty high, and that’s basically across the county (because of historic rainfall in July).”

Some local meteorologists are calling for less rain over the weekend than predicted by NWS, but are still urging caution.

“Most of what we’re looking at is at least 3-5 inches of rain. … It’s a very similar setup to what we saw over the Fourth of July and that’s why we’re concerned,” WJHG-TV meteorologist Chris Smith said.

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking the elongated low-pressure system in the Gulf for several days, and now believes it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression. The system weakened after moving from the Caribbean Sea over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. But high moisture from the system streamed north and dumped nearly 2 inches of rain in the Panama City area on Friday. That moisture is expected to continue streaming north, so deputies throughout the county are gearing up for potential flooding over the weekend, said Bay County Sheriff’s Office spokeswoman Ruth Corley.

Members of the beach precinct were anticipating an upgrade in the flag warning system to red or double-red flags, Corley said. Deputies plan to keep a close watch on areas of the zones they patrol known to be prone to flooding, she said.

“That’s really all we can do is watch the problem areas and be ready to take action,” Corley said.

In Jackson County Friday night, the NWS website reported there was water over the road at County162 and Bump Nose Road north of Marianna.

Friday, NHS computer models indicated the low-pressure system in the Gulf will eventually move over Texas, not the Panhandle.

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