Source Magazine Statistics - Analysis Summary

Source Magazine Analysis - Summary

As part of my ongoing project of compiling and analyzing Scientology's
statistics, I am collecting statistics from Source magazine, the magazine
of the Church of Scientology's Flag Service Organization in Clearwater,
Florida.

The data show that Flag's stats peaked in the late 80s and have never
recovered since.

The following analysis was done in September, 2004.
An updated version, including complete statistics for 2004, is available
at the Source 2004 Analysis page.

Note: Because some of my source material consisted of pages torn from copies of Source, it's possible that, for some earlier issues, I'm missing some data - in other words, I may have gotten two pages torn from a particular issue when there were, perhaps, three or four pages of completions. Note that this would simply amplify the results I'm reporting here - the results from the late 80s are already the highest numbers we have over the lifespan of Flag. If some of those numbers are actually higher, the discrepancy between that period and the current dropoff is even greater.

The above numbers are, in fact, a little on the high side, since no attempt has yet been made to account for variations or misspellings (in other words, "Mike Mouse" and "Michael Mouse" would be counted as two separate individuals, even if they were actually the same person).

Clears

Flag is not exactly cranking out Clears these days. While Flag may prefer to concentrate on expensive services like the Ls, it does seem that Scientology's headquarters should be able to show the rest of the world how to make Clears. Flag, it seems, should be setting an example. Indeed, one issue of Source leads off its completions page with the headline, "Flag makes Clears and OTs!" Flag doesn't make a whole lot of them, though, it appears.

PTS/SP Courses

This section is a good illustration of issues where data may be missing. While we know there were no completions of any kind reported in 1984, it seems odd that there were so few PTS/SP completions reported during the entire period from 1979-1986. It's possible that this reflects data that I am missing, rather than an actual dearth of PTS/SP completions. In any case, though, there are far fewer completions in the early 2000s than in the late 1980s.

OT Eligibility

The following figures reflect OT Eligibility completions.

I had thought this was a service that individuals completed over and over again. To my surprise, I found that the 1392 total completions were ascribed to 1339 individuals - in other words, very few individuals showed up in this service more than once.

Solo Auditor Completions

The following figures reflect Solo Auditor Courses - anything labeled as any of the following:

SOLO AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE

SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART I

SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART II

SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE

SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART I

SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART II

NEW OT VI HUBBARD SOLO NOTS AUDITING COURSE

... with or without the "Hubbard" or "New Hubbard" prefix.

Again, the low numbers in the early 80s may reflect data that I am missing, rather than an actual lack of Solo Auditor completions. Whatever the situation in the early 80s, though, it seems clear that there was a huge spike in 1997, followed by a fast decline with a small bump in 2002.

I hope to do a more thorough analysis before the end of September 2004 and to revisit these numbers in early 2005 when we have more complete numbers for 2004.

Although I'm dismayed to find that I may be missing some data from the 80s lists that I have, I think there is no question that Flag's stats are way down from the late 80s; additional data from that era will only magnify that downtrend.