Monday, December 19, 2005

The most recent MORI poll published in the Observer this weekend puts the Conservatives ahead by 9%.

The result puts my party on 40% with Labour at 31% and the Lib Dems down a bit on 21%.

The really good news is not this poll (which I think looks on the hight side) but that MORI is the last of the big polling organisations to publish a poll that now shows the Conservatives in the lead.

Although we have had small poll leads on past occasions the last time all the main polling firms gave us a consistant lead over Labour like this was in 1989.

Nobody is getting too excited, because even if these numbers were sustained for the four years until the next election they would still not translate into an overall Conservative majority, which might be one reason that David Cameron is appealing to Liberal Democrats for support.

Believe it or not in order to wrestle control of the House of Commons the Conservatives would need about 44% of the vote with Labour on less than 31% and the Lib Dems below 20%. Exact figures are hard because much depends on tactical voting and the effective campaigns in target seats like Torbay.

But the polling numbers support the anecdotal evidence all around us which is that sentiment is moving our way and that momentum for change is growing.

11 comments:

Anonymous
said...

"Mr Wood, I was very interested to read the article published in the Herald Express on the 28th of November which was laced with self-pity and emotional blackmail demanding to be told whether or not you would be reselected or you would go elsewhere Funny that, because you promised to stay in the bay whatever the result in the General Election because you weren't a 'career politician' you were actually in it to help the people of the bay! Make up your mind! You've just exposed yourself for what you really are, a man without principles who just wants to make a name for himself If you are the future of the Conservative Party in the south-west then god help us!"

I couldn't agree more with this piece. The Torbay Conservatives are foolish to select you. The election of Cameron does offer hope to the Tories, a candidate like you is a classic example of everything that is bad with the Tories and why they will always struggle to get re-elected. You couldn't win Torbay last time - a Conservative heart land full of old and right wing people and a poor Lib Dem MP. It is sad to see people like you trying to get to parliament, throwing down ultimatiums everywhere. People like you show just what is wrong with politics and how a man like Blair has stayed in power for so long.

I presume you can delete/moderate or censor any comment you want to. You are to be commended for not doing so.

The bitterness of some of the posts which are clearly from your opponents (from both sides of the political divide?!) probably says more about your impact on the Torbay political scene than anything else.

This kind of personal abuse has poisoned debate in Torbay for too long.

You have shaken up the status quo, on both sides, which in my view has long been needed.

If your new leader David Cameron backs up what he says he will do with actions, your party you will win back lost voters like myself quite easily.

Right choice for Mayor Tim ? Elizabeth Raikes is the most important person at the Town Hall. Bye has no vision, no policies and offers no political leadership.

Marcus Wood is a worthy political adversary, but Bye is a nonentity. Can you tell me what his policies are then ? Likewise, Cameron's Blair-ite lite politics is going to offer a differing challenge to us non-Tories. He's played a blinder so far, aided by a sympathetic press. If Cameron moves to the centre though he'll alienate the Tory membership.

But it's POLICIES, he'll be judged on just like Bye locally. What has Bye achieved ? The Crem Cross issue was determined by the last Lib Dem executive and he has won a reprieve, nothing more at this stage, for Upton St. James School.

Having watched him in action at the first full council meeting since he took over, it is clear he is out of his depth. Watch what he says and does rather than accept the Herald's fawning over him !

Oh, before you fail to answer my points and go on about the Lib Dems , I don't accept everyhing they've done either. They DID however move the council - as judged by the Audit Commission, from POOR UNDER THE TORIES to fair.

I am glad you pointed out Nick Bye's predecessors failings before I had to!

My reservations about the Audit Commission are already well documented, their judgement criteria are set by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (Prescott) - so Torbay Councils actions over the last three years may have pleased him but they haven't pleased the voters (and tax payers) of Torbay.

Councils should be judged by their customers via the ballot box; not by a bunch of 'political correctness' obsessed penpushers appointed by the Government and answerable to no-one.

Nothing has changed with the Tories, the new guy says almost the same as the old just a newer version. Its a great shame because we need better opposition. The subject that matters the most is being hushed up. Cant talk about the EU it may loose us votes. You people are so obsessed with votes that you cant see the wood for the trees. Enjoy opposition.

So do I take it you are happy with Nick Bye's start as Mayor ? As Alan Faulkener says it today's 'Herald' and as I've said before, he wants to act in the same fashion as a ceremonial mayor. Where is the political leadership ? Mrs Raikes, an unelected and publicly unaccountable figure, is running the council and Bye is offering no political leadership at all.

The 10% cuts across the board seem arbitary to say the least. Pity Bye seems to prefer to talk to the Herald rather than other councillors. Pity too he seems so thin-skinned and sees all probing questions as 'negative'. Face it Marcus, he isn't up to it, although I know you can't admit it publicly !

Bye is good as a self-pulicist and not much more.

If he is so talented it was not noticed by the Tory group he was a member of. They didn't elect him to a group leadership position and they saw him at closest quarters !