Monday, November 9, 2015

BIRTHDAY PRESENTS

Great stuff from my friends in Portugal and Greece guaranteed to make this old man's life a lot easier!

The Portuguese decided to throw their present government out and the Communists and the Socialists got together to form a new one later this week. The thought of the copy that could spring out from this lame-brain decision boggles the mind. On top of watching a Communist government operating within the EU just think of the nonsense that spew forth from Little Paulie Krugman's future columns in the Times, no doubt beginning with how austerity is now dead, the people have spoken and the future is with us. Let's dig up Keynes and in celebration float him down the Tagus on a golden barge!

Of course the real question is whether anyone is going to care. Probably not as on the big Peninsular more important things are going on such as plans being drawn up for the secession of Catalonia from Spain which IS a big deal in more ways that the issue of whether Barca will be allowed to stay in La Liga or not. This, as we have said before is a real country; unfortunately in the great scheme of things Portugal is not--to an even greater extent than Greece which is in hot water again.

The Greeks have been anxious to receive a second tranche of their bail-out money totalling some 2 Billion Euros to shore up their domestic institutions but according to the Euros they have not fulfilled their obligations as to a solution for those in arrears on their home mortgages. What! say you. Euros concerned with the well-being of individual Greeks? Well, of course not, sillies. The Euros are concerned with the well-being of the Greek banks to whom the mortgages are owed and who owe the Euros. Therefore, let's figure out how we are going to get paid before we pay them the money that will in part be used to pay us. Got it? It really isn't so hard to understand if you simply keep in mind the simple rule; institutions count, people don't. Will it be resolved? Sure. There will be some harsh language and some tooing and froing, but no big deal. Most importantly, I'll get a few stories out of this...I hope.

The third thing that is beginning to bubble up is the renewed concern that the Brits are serious about canning the Euro thing altogether. Early days, but shots are being fired across bows with some serious folks laying some very big guns in anticipation of this show-down. I mean, with all of this coming into play on my birthday what could possibly be in my Christmas stocking? This could really be a year to remember. We start exploring the prospects tomorrow.

The ten year closed at 2.34% today. All questions have been answered as to whether the Fed "tightens" in December from the market's standpoint. I guess all's right with the world except in the mind of the OECD who just cut it's economic forecast today. Then again a 1/4 point as we have said means nothing but I would sure like to see something out there as supposedly encouraging as last month's job report and a bit more believable. Let's hope we get it.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Follow by Email

About Me

Charles James is the nom de plume of an international banker who has more than 30 years of experience in both the lending and risk management fields. He has been involved in a number of international crises extending as far back as the Latin American crisis of 1982.