Monday, February 27, 2006

Smoke And Fire, Now I'm Choking

The Washington Nationals are believed to be eyeing the Red Sox for a potential deal for a starting pitcher...

Matt Clement, who is owed $9.5 million each of the next two seasons, is probably out of Washington’s price range, but Bronson Arroyo, who inked a three-year deal worth $10.5 million in January, certainly would be appealing.

To acquire Arroyo, the Nationals may have to part with a package including first baseman Nick Johnson or outfielder Ryan Church.

Lest you think it's just one of those high-falutin' Boston papers (where they drink their coffee with pinkies extended), our own Dave Sheinin notes the Nats interest. Sheinin didn't mention any potential Nats. And it's important to note that the Boston paper uses weasel language to indicate what the Nats MIGHT have to give up without indicating that that's his conjecture, as opposed to something from the team. (Even if those seem like reasonable guesses) Bill Ladson, for what it's worth, didn't mention either Arroyo or Clement, just David Wells.

Would you trade Nick Johnson (the team's best offensive player when healthy -- a big 'when', I know) for Bronson Arroyo (stats)? If you would, do you have anything else you could sell me?

Sheinin's article notes that the Nationals are bumping up agains the $60 million payoroll they've established. That jives with my estimates. Interestingly, Arroyo is due to make about $3.5 million this season -- roughly the same as Nick Johnson. Take that for whatever you think it's worth.

I suppose that giving up Church wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I like the guy, and am intrigued by his potential (especially at his low cost), but he's on the old side of prospecthood, and the team really doesn't seem like they're going to give him a fair shake -- or at least they're doing everything in their power to make it look like they're not going to.

Whatever happens, don't let it be for Nick Johnson.

If Nick were to go, would they slide Vidro to first? Let Fick/Lecroy duke it out there? Would Daryle Ward come up? There are plenty of options. But they all taste like poo.

I'd be shocked (SHOCKED!) if the deal isn't for Vidro and Church or Johnson and Church. Bowden wants this to be his team. It must kill him that he settled with Schneider in arbitration, when he might have been able to get Bengie Molina...

Just thinking more about the Lawrence situation, and it can't get any fishier. He's 5 minutes into his first bullpen of the Spring, and he feels pain! He must have known something about this before coming to camp. I mean, did he pick up a baseball at all during the offseason? Assuming he tossing at 50% for his first bullpen, that's only small step above tossing.

A team with pitching like the Nats would do very well to get a pitcher like Arroyo. His stats are on par with most 4/5 starters. He's no Rocket or Randy Johnson - but he can hold his own. He has a rubber arm (no stints on the DL in his MLB career), he had 20 quality starts last year and can pitch both as a starter and from the 'pen. Granted it was in the minors - but did you all know he pitched a perfect game for the Paw Sox in 2003?? Don't be so quick to dismiss him...

I don't hear anybody dismissing Arroyo or arguing we shouldn't try and get him. The issue is what you give up. Nick Johnson and Ryan Church would be a heck of lot to give up for a decent #3. Four months ago, those guys could have gotten you a heck of a lot more than Bronson Arroyo.

I'm rationalizing that Johnson wouldn't be involved because the Red Sox really like OBP-machine Youklis and also just picked up JT Snow.