A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation.

EPA (Expected Points Added)

Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play.

EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession)

Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession.

Adjusted for Competition

We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition

Impact

see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent.

Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance.

Pass <=0

Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain

Pass >=10

Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards

Pass >=25

Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0

%Sacks

Ratio of sacks to pass plays

Bad INTs

Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half

Includes the top 240 players by carries

YPC1stD

Yards per carry on 1st down

CPCs

Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown

%Team Run

Player's carries as a percent of team's carries

%Team RunS

Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations

Run <=0

Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain

Run >=10

Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards

Run >=25

Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0

Includes the top 300 players by targets

Conv/T 3rd

Conversions per target on 3rd Downs

Conv/T PZ

Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline

%Team PZ

Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline

Rec <=0

Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain

Rec >=10

Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards

Rec >=25

Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards

10 to 0

Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0

Includes the top 300 players by targets

xxxx

xxxx

...

Includes players with a significant number of attempts

NEPA

"Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot

NEPA/PP

Average NEPA per play

Max/Min

Single game high and low

Includes players with a significant number of attempts

NEPA

"Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot

NEPA/PP

Average NEPA per play

Max/Min

Single game high and low

Adjusted

Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule.

Defensive Possession Stats

Points/Poss

Offensive points per possession

EP3

Effective Points per Possession

EP3+

Effective Points per Possession impact

Plays/Poss

Plays per possession

Yards/Poss

Yards per possession

Start Spot

Average starting field position

Time of Poss

Average time of possession (in seconds)

TD/Poss

Touchdowns per possession

TO/Poss

Turnovers per possession

FGA/Poss

Attempted field goals per possession

%RZ

Red zone trips per possession

Points/RZ

Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points.

TD/RZ

Touchdowns per red zone trip

FGA/RZ

Field goal attempt per red zone trip

Downs/RZ

Turnover on downs per red zone trip

Defensive Play-by-Play Stats

EPA/Pass

Expected Points Added per pass attempt

EPA/Rush

Expected Points Added per rush attempt

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact

Yards/Pass

Yards per pass

Yards/Rush

Yards per rush

Yards/Pass+

Yards per pass impact

Yards/Rush+

Yards per rush impact

Exp/Pass

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass

Exp/Rush

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush

Exp/Pass+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact

Exp/Rush+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact

Comp%

Completion percentage

Comp%+

Completion percentage impact

Yards/Comp

Yards per completion

Sack/Pass

Sacks per pass

Sack/Pass+

Sacks per pass impact

Sack/Pass*

Sacks per pass on passing downs

INT/Pass

Interceptions per pass

Neg/Rush

Negative plays (<=0) per rush

Neg/Run+

Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact

Run Short

% Runs in short yardage situations

Convert%

3rd/4th down conversions

Conv%*

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance

Conv%+

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact

Offensive Play-by-Play Stats

Plays

Number of offensive plays

%Pass

Percent pass plays

EPA/Pass

Expected Points Added per pass attempt

EPA/Rush

Expected Points Added per rush attempt

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition

Yards/Pass

Yards per pass

Yards/Rush

Yards per rush

Yards/Pass+

Yards per pass adjusted for competition

Yards/Rush+

Yards per rush adjusted for competition

Exp Pass

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass

Exp Run

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush

Exp Pass+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition

Exp Run+

Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition

Comp%

Completion percentage

Comp%+

Completion percentage adjusted for competition

Sack/Pass

Sacks per pass

Sack/Pass+

Sacks per pass adjusted for competition

Sack/Pass*

Sacks per pass on passing downs

Int/Pass

Interceptions per pass

Neg/Run

Negative plays (<=0) per rush

Neg/Run+

Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition

Run Short

% Runs in short yardage situations

Convert%

3rd/4th down conversions

Conv%*

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance

Conv%+

3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition

Offensive Possession Stats

Points/Poss

Offensive points per possession

EP3

Effective Points per Possession

EP3+

Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition

Plays/Poss

Plays per possession

Yards/Poss

Yards per possession

Start Spot

Average starting field position

Time of Poss

Average time of possession (in seconds)

TD/Poss

Touchdowns per possession

TO/Poss

Turnovers per possession

FGA/Poss

Attempted field goals per possession

Poss/Game

Possessions per game

%RZ

Red zone trips per possession

Points/RZ

Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points.

TD/RZ

Touchdowns per red zone trip

FGA/RZ

Field goal attempt per red zone trip

Downs/RZ

Turnover on downs per red zone trip

PPP

Points per Possession

aPPP

Points per Possession allowed

PPE

Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP)

EP3+

Expected Points per Possession

aEP3+

Expected Points per Possession allowed

EP2E+

Expected Points per Exchange

EPA/Pass+

Expected Points Added per Pass

EPA/Rush+

Expected Points Added per Rush

aEPA/Pass+

Expected Points Allowed per Pass

aEPA/Rush+

Expected Points Allowed per Rush

Exp/Pass

Explosive Plays per Pass

Exp/Rush

Explosive Plays per Rush

aExp/Pass

Explosive Plays per Pass allowed

aExp/Rush

Explosive Plays per Rush allowed

BPR

A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation.

Power

A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference

P-Top

The power ranking of the top teams in the conference

P-Mid

The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference

P-Bot

The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference

SOS-Und

Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference

SOS-BE

Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference

Hybrid

A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences

Player Game LogUse the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.

EPA

Expected points added (see glossary)

oEPA

Defense-independent performance

Team Game LogUse the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.

It's a pretty simple process to slip these values in a model and reverse engineer power ratings. And it turns out the Golden Nugget spreads are pretty consistent with the power ratings I've estimated. The chart below compares the reported point spreads with the points spreads generated by my model using the reverse engineered power ratings. The average difference between the Nugget's spreads and the model's is just under a point.

Shockingly, according to the reversed engineered power rankings, the best team in college football in 2013 is . . . . Alabama. Gasp. What is actually surprising is that Oregon is just a field goal below Alabama and Texas A&M just a touchdown from the Tide (though the 6.5 points they're getting in Kyle Field suggests a bigger gap). The Aggies are followed by Ohio State, Georgia, a run of Big 12 teams with LSU thrown in the middle to finish out the top 10.

Ole Miss at 14 is notable. There are four SEC West teams in the top 14, and then there's a huge jump before we get to Mississippi State, Auburn and Arkansas.

By my estimates, Notre Dame would be around 11th/12th if Golson were still on campus.

Oregon is almost ten points better than Stanford. That seems fair.

Staying in the Pac, the Golden Nugget doesn't seem to think much of Sonny Dykes. Only 13 teams have lower power ratings than Cal.

Texas at 6 sets alarms off in my head. Then again, there's no reason they can't be there (outside of the terrible, terrible coaching staff).

Michigan and TCU are two teams that I would put higher, and both for the same reason: very good quarterback play.

Then there's Louisville. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Louisville is getting hyped because they beat a flawed Florida team by 10 points a month after any other games. In the three games before that they lost to Syracuse by 19, UConn by 3 and beat Rutgers by 3. Teddy Bridgewater is good, and may have a great NFL future ahead of him, but he was the 16th most efficient passer last year - behind, among others, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Connor Shaw, Tajh Boyd, and Collin Klein, guys that were asked do to a lot more than sit in the pocket and sling while playing against much better competition. The only thing Bridgewater did better than Michigan's Devin Gardner and Oklahoma State's JW Walsh is take more snaps. The Golden Nugget spreads place Louisville 24th among the 83 teams with data. I think anything above 30th is optimistic.

There are some notable exclusions: Utah State finished last year's power rankings at 14 and San Jose State is one more team with a better college quarterback than Louisville.