Strategie Grains in its report this month left virtually unchanged its forecast for the 2012/13 EU barley output, at 54.8 mln tonnes, of which 12.2 mln tonnes of potentially malting grade.

Expectations for EU barley exports are stable at 4.6 mln tonnes vs. 2.5 mln tonnes in 2011/12. The ending stocks forecast has been revised upwards by 0.2 mln tonnes to 6.5 mln tonnes. Barley supply in the EU is ample, thus old crop barley prices should not increase, but the situation may change if unfavourable weather conditions delay wheat harvest or ending stocks of maize turn out to be very low.

The surplus of malting-grade barley has either been used for feed or exported as feed or malting barley as the malting premiums have been very low at the beginning of the 2012/13 marketing year.

In 2013/14, the EU is forecast to harvest a smaller barley crop of 54.2 mln tonnes, of which 11.7 mln tonnes may be of potentially malting quality (vs. 12.2 mln in 2012/13). Domestic barley consumption is forecast to increase, whereas barley trade within the Union is expected to reach 8.5 mln tonnes, similar to 2012/13.