John Edwards is ending his presidential race today. How it affects the Democratic race is anyone's guess -- though it's likely not to have a major impact. The truth is that Edwards didn't have a lot of support left in the Super Tuesday states, except, perhaps, in the south, and even there it was only around 15% or even less. So, while this could help Obama (which is the common assumption), that's hardly a sure thing.

Barack Obama has won a huge victory tonight
over Hillary Clinton -- so much so that he apparently will go
over 50% and Clinton will finish far closer to Edwards than the winner.
Assuming Clinton holds second, no matter how far back she is, tonight's victory for
Obama will likely not hurt her momentum much heading into Florida on Tuesday
-- a primary the media should actually not report both because it's
only a "beauty contest" and no Democratic candidates campaigned there (see our post from yesterday).

With about two thirds of the precincts counted, Clinton has a narrow 50%-45% lead over Obama, with Edwards way back at 5%. The CNN entrance poll, if accurate, also indicates that Clinton is headed to a single-digit win. If the lead holds up, she gets bragging rights for now, but as we wrote earlier, the delegate haul from Nevada will be roughly even and this result is likely to have little or no effect on the key Super Tuesday primaries to come on February 5th.

With 96 hours to go, the Democratic race in Iowa is obviously very tight. What are the factors that could break it open for any of the top three?

Clinton: In the final stretch run, last-minute voters decide to go with experience and electability and women who have never been to a caucus before turn out in record numbers.Obama: The buzz translates into a massive increase in turnout, bolstered by a record youth vote.

A new MSNBC Iowa poll, if accurate,
contains a new development. In the Democratic race, the three top
contenders are virtually even, according to the poll. But, when the second choices of
Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson voters are factored in -- and
these are the candidates unlikely to reach the 15% threshhold virtually
anywhere -- Edwards jumps to a ten-point lead -- 36% to 26% for the other
two.

"There's a rhetoric gap with Obama," executive director Peggy Huppert
told ABC News. "He told me personally: 'Trust me. Ideologically, I'm
with you.' But people have told him to be afraid of being pushed too
far to the left.

There will undoubtedly be plenty
of analysis in the morning. And, as we noted before the debate, this
event should be judged in tandem with the next debate in mid-November,
with an eye towards seeing which Democrat emerges in Iowa and New
Hampshire as Hillary's principal challenger.
Nevertheless, some quick reactions: Edwards helped
himself the most in this encounter by reinforcing his image as the
leading liberal populist challenger to Clinton.