Spending on the successor to Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent will take up
to a third of the defence budget within the next decade, defence experts are
warning.

The Royal United Services Institute forecast “submarine and deterrent spending” is set to account for around 35 per cent of the total core procurement budget by 2021/22.

In the paper, Mid-Term Blues? Defence and the 2013 Spending Review, Prof Malcolm Chalmers, RUSI’s research director, said there was “no prospect of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats agreeing before the next general election” on the successor to Trident which will need to be decommissioned in 2024.

He said that from 2016/17 onwards – when a final decision on Trident will be taken - spending on the successor to Trident will rise sharply, .

This level is due to rise further, as successor submarine production gathers pace, and is likely to sustain this level through to the end of the 2020s.

Prof Chalmers, said the current Spending Review, due to conclude by June 2013, is also “widely expected to lead to further reductions in the budget for 2015/16”.

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He said that “procurement spending on combat air, air support, helicopters and surface ships is due to fall significantly after 2015/16”.

He said: “Nevertheless, if the 2013 Spending Review leads to further defence spending cuts, the extent of the prospective gap between planned spending and available resources could still be significant.

“The MoD may need to find around £11 billion in savings over ten years as a result of the decisions taken in Autumn Statement 2012 and Spending Review 2013.”

Prof Chalmers added that if the 2015 spending review makes a further 2.5 per cent cut in the MoD resource budget “the requirement for ten-year savings (in the decade up to 2025/26) could increase to around £17 billion”.

Last month defence secretary Philip Hammond claimed to have balanced the budget for defence equipment over the ten years to 2022, outlining plans to spend almost £160billion on new vehicles and kit.

The programme includes £35.8billion for submarines, including a replacement for the Trident nuclear system; £18.5billion on warplanes and drones; and £17.4billion for surface ships, including new aircraft carriers.

Another £8 billion has been left unallocated to cover the risks of cost overruns. The programme meant that “for the first time in a generation the Armed Forces will have a sustainable equipment plan," Mr Hammond said.