2013 Bold Predictions

Some day, we’ll make sense of why a site called You Can’t Predict Baseball does predictions, but today is not that day. At any rate, for the past two years, we have made bold predictions before the season (2011, 2012). Some have been spot on, and some have been juuust a little off. At any rate, here’s to teams surprising us in ways we never saw coming this year.

Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts plays at least 75 games.Boston Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia is not their most valuable position player.New York Yankees: Despite missing April, Curtis Granderson still leads the team in home runs.Tampa Bay Rays: At some point this season, Fernando Rodney loses the closer job.Toronto Blue Jays: They use fewer than 10 starting pitchers this season.

Chicago White Sox: Paul Konerko hits 35 home runs.Cleveland Indians: Michael Bourn steals fewer than 40 bases.Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera has a better season than last year, but he doesn’t lead the AL in any Triple Crown categories.Kansas City Royals: James Shields has an ERA+ under 100.Minnesota Twins: They don’t have the worst starting pitching in the AL.

Houston Astros: They won’t lose 100 games.Los Angeles Angels: Josh Hamilton hits 45 home runs.Oakland Athletics: They win the division again.Seattle Mariners: Jason Bay hits more home runs than he did with the Mets.Texas Rangers: Joakim Soria has more saves than Joe Nathan.

Atlanta Braves: Their regular third baseman will have an OPS+ within 10 points of Chipper Jones’ from last year.Miami Marlins: They have an All-Star other than Giancarlo Stanton.New York Mets: Ike Davis hits 40 home runs.Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Halladay’s ERA is over 4.Washington Nationals: Their outfield leads the NL East in homers.

Chicago Cubs: Carlos Marmol’s K/BB is higher than 2.50.Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos has his best season yet.Milwaukee Brewers: Norichika Aoki hits more triples than home runs.Pittsburgh Pirates: Neil Walker is the best second baseman in the NL.St Louis Cardinals: David Freese and Allen Craig outhomer Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Gerardo Parra and Eric Hinske are regular outfielders by the end of the season.Colorado Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin qualifies for rate stats, and has an ERA under 4.Los Angeles Dodgers: Josh Beckett leads the team in wins.San Diego Padres: Chase Headley doesn’t lead the team in RBIs.San Francisco Giants: The three main outfielders (which we’re counting as Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, and Gregor Blanco) won’t combine to hit 40 home runs.

So just to be clear, the prediction is that a group of players who combined to hit 37 home runs last year (17 of which came for the Phillies, whose park is the polar opposite of San Francisco) will hit less than 40 in 2013. That’s an incredibly bold prediction.

On the other hand, predicting that the Nationals’ outfield will outpace the Braves’ in home runs is genuinely bold, unless you’re pegging Harper for a solid 50. (Which would be pretty bold in itself, I suppose.)

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