Ethanol

by Debra Fiakas, CFA
The Trump Administration is using tariffs on China goods as a trade war tactic to pressure China into relenting to U.S. trade policy demands. Unfortunately, the fallout has been heavy and widespread. Farmers have taken the heaviest hits as China has dropped orders for corn and soybeans. Ethanol producers have been ensnared in the trade war skirmish as well and in recent weeks have been caught an uncomfortable ‘pincer-like’ squeeze by the Trump Administration.
Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency has continued its practice of granting waivers to oil and gas refiners, eliminating the requirement to blend biofuel with the refiners’ petroleum...

by Jim Lane
Wandering the halls at the BIO World Congress and later to be seen again at ABLC NEXT this November, we ran across one of the most interesting technologies relating to ethanol production and markets we have seen in a month of Sundays, perhaps two months’ worth.
The problem
First, let’s revisit the problem. There’s simply too much ethanol being produced for the markets to absorb, given the Trump Administration’s massive cutbacks in US ethanol targets —In the resulting massively oversupplied market, the inevitable has happened, ethanol producers, growers and the Midwestern economies are being crushed. And they thought they...

by Jim Lane
Three big product announcements just in…
DSM (e) breaks through on yield, efficiency with new yeast, enzyme offerings for corn fiber conversion.
Novozymes (Copenhagen:NZYM-B; OTC:NVZMY) launches breakthrough techs “Fortiva” and “Innova Force”.
DuPont (DD) extends with corn oil extraction tech.
In Indiana, DSM leads the news out of the Fuel Ethanol Workshops with their latest yeast and enzyme offerings, eBOOST GT and eBREAK 1000F.
Up to 60 percent GA reduction
We’ve seen the eBOOST brand over the past year — so here’s a significant cost savings opportunity in the form of a line extension. eBOOST GT, which has been tested and qualified at commercial...

Prelude to a spin-off?
by Jim Lane
The Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is breaking news of breaking off their ethanol unit…and a tumbling 40% decline in profit.
In Chicago, Archer Daniels Midland Company reported their financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2019, but most interesting to us, they are looking at separating their ethanol business with the option of spinning it off completely. They are also taking other actions to restructure and deal with challenges they say include weather issues and trade pressures.
ADM announced a “series of measures to continue to underpin long-term-value creation” which included:
“First, to meet growing customer...

by Jim Lane
What a whirlwind weekend after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced their final renewable volume obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard program for 2019. “It’s just numbers,” some say, but oh no, not in the biofuels world. It’s never just numbers. This time it’s about waivers, fixing the damage done, and ensuring a bright future for biofuels. It’s about hollow chocolate bunnies and two steps back for some.
French mathematician Rene Descartes is best known for “I think, therefore I am,” but he also said “Perfect numbers, like perfect men, are rare.” So true in this case as not...

by Jim Lane
In Washington, researchers for a report published by the Urban Air Initiative contend that “technical data that shows the nation has been exposed to decades of flawed test fuels and flawed driving tests, which in turn means flawed emissions results and mileage claims”. The complete Beyond a Reasonable Doubt series from UAI is available here.
Further, EPA emails obtained under the Freedom of Information Act reveal that, according to a report from Boyden Grey & Associates, the Agency appears to have directly solicited financial contributions and technical input, “especially on the fuel matrix,” from an oil industry controlled research organization.
Of the...

Ethanol and isobutanol producer Gevo, Inc. (GEVO: Nasdaq) is installing equipment in its Luverne, Minnesota plant to improve efficiency in corn processing. The company is leasing a proprietary corn fractionation or slicing process developed Shockwave, LLC based in DesMoines, Iowa. The new equipment is intended to increase by-product output, including feed protein products and food-grade corn oil. With sales of more valuable by-products Gevo expects to improve overall profit margins. Shareholders can expect to see results after the first quarter 2019, when the equipment installation is expected to be complete.
Shockwave keeps a low profile with no corporate website and no one to answer phone calls. However,...

The 2019 proposed US Renewable Fuel Standard proposed volumes attracted a major raspberry from the ethanol industry.
As the American Coalition for Ethanol noted:
“Unfortunately, EPA continues to take actions which undermine the letter and spirit of the statute and harm the rural economy. While refiners are reporting double-digit profits, the heart of America is being left behind. Farmers are losing money while refiners have the best of both worlds: fat profit margins and minimal RFS compliance costs. EPA needs to discard its refiner-win-at-all-costs mentality and get the RFS back on track.”
“While the proposed rule purports to maintain the 15-billion-gallon conventional...

by Jim Lane
The Top Line. In California, Aemetis (AMTX) reported that Q2 revenues increased $4.3 million and gross margins increased by $1.1 million compared to the second quarter of 2017. Similarly, during the first half of 2018, revenues increased $15.7 million and gross margins increased by $3.5 million compared to the first half of 2017.
Revenues were $45.0 million for the second quarter of 2018 compared to $40.8 million for the second quarter of 2017, driven by an increase in ethanol sales volumes from 15.6 million gallons to 16.4 million gallons and by stronger wet distillers grain and glycerin demand and pricing.
Operating loss...

Last week ethanol producer Green Plains (GPRE: Nasdaq) reported financial results for the quarter ending June 2018. As expected the company reported a net loss, but actual results were far better than expected. The news gave traders a reason to celebrate with bids that led to a gap higher at the opening on the first day of trading following the announcement. Cooler heads came into the market as the day wore on and the stock closed below the open on heavy volume. Nonetheless, the stock finished the week higher and appears prepared to challenge lines of volume-related price resistance in the trading sessions ahead.
There may...

by Jim Lane
As most know by now, the US and China have fired opening salvos in a trade war, with the US targeting a range of commodities including steel and aluminum, and China retaliating with, to date, stiff tariffs on a range of agricultural products, but primarily hitting soybeans and corn because of the volume of trade in those agricultural goods. Overall, China imports $24 billion of agricultural goods from the US and is a leading export market for the US.
The trade wars prompted North Dakota farmer Kevin Skunes, president of the National Corn Growers Association, to state:
“Farmers are...

by Jim LaneIn Washington, new evidence has appeared that a Trump Administration shift on US low carbon fuel policy may have cost US corn growers an estimated $3.65 billion.
The mechanism? A secretive effort by Administration officials installed at the US Environmental Protection Agency that destroyed an estimated 1.37 billion gallons of annual demand for low-carbon renewable fuels, in favor of fossil fuels.
Officials at the agency exploited a loophole in US low carbon fuel legislation that allows small oil refineries to gain hardship waivers in cases of severe distress from complying in full with US low carbon fuel laws. Now, evidence...

by Jim Lane
In Washington, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has resigned.
US President Donald Trump announced the exit on Twitter, commenting, “President Donald Trump announced Pruitt’s exit, saying on Twitter “I have accepted the resignation of Scott Pruitt as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Within the Agency Scott has done an outstanding job, and I will always be thankful to him for this.”
Deputy Administrator Andrew Wheeler becomes acting administrator.
The Digest’s Take
Elsewhere in the media, it is widely reported that Pruitt was undone by a growing number of controversies and investigations relating to his conduct as EPA Administrator, particularly relating...

Trump in a pickle: support his beleaguered EPA Administrator over oil refinery bailouts, or rally his Midwestern farm-state base?
In Washington, Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa tweeted:
“I’ve supported Pruitt but if he pushes changes to RFS that permanently cut ethanol by billions of gallons he will have broken Trump promise & he should step down & let someone else do the job of implementing Trump agenda if he refuses.”
Grassley explicitly called on Pruitt to back a key campaign pledge from 2016 that helped unlock farm state support and propel Trump into the White House.
1/19/16 Trump at IA Renewable fuels summit: EPA...

by Jim Lane
The ethanol signals from Washington DC are more inexplicably mixed than cocktails with names like Sex on the Beach. Let’s parse through the wigwagging over the future of American biofuels supply and demand — ethanol and otherwise.
Fortunately: Trump backs year-round E15 ethanol blends
In Washington, President Trump endorsed year-round E15 ethanol availability as an emerging compromise between oil refiners and US farm sector.
The Renewable Fuel Standard is a federal program that requires transportation fuel sold in the United States to contain a minimum volume of renewable fuels. The RFS originated in a bi-partisan Congress with the Energy Policy Act...

Ethanol stocks are publicly traded companies whose business involves producing ethanol alcohol (C2H5OH) made from biomass for use as a fuel in gasoline blends. Common feedstocks include corn and sugar cane. Ethanol is the most widely produced and used biofuel, and all ethanol stocks are also biofuel stocks.
Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX)
Andersons Inc (ANDE)
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Bluefire Renewables (BFRE)
Cosan Ltd (CZZ)
Green Plains Partners LP (GPP)
Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE)
MGP Ingredients (MGPI)
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
REX American Resources Corp. (REX)
SunOpta (STKL)
If you know of any ethanol stock that is not listed here and should be, please let us know by leaving a comment. Also for stocks...