FORGET ALL THE HOUSING COMEBACK TALK: Here's Why The Market Is Still A Disasterhttp://www.businessinsider.com/bearish-housing-thesis-charts-2012-9/comments
en-usWed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500Fri, 09 Dec 2016 12:05:44 -0500Matthew Boesler and Mamta Badkarhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/506f532c69bedd066a000001LiratFri, 05 Oct 2012 17:37:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506f532c69bedd066a000001
Yep, when I saw that chart start to spike in 1982 I passed on a house selling for 55K was really "worth" 40K at most. Ive been waiting for 30 years now, and the price is still 377K, but Im sure I will be vindicated soon.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506dedceecad04343d00001fhammermanThu, 04 Oct 2012 16:13:02 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506dedceecad04343d00001f
mehh...just rent....
Here in chicago people were scared that rents are so high it might push them back to buying again.....nope didnt happen..
People are buying up all these forclosed builidings and renting it out for 30% under goiing rates and still turning a profit on their investment....Under cut = profit....with so much demand it will happen elsewhere....http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506dddfaeab8eaa948000002TomThu, 04 Oct 2012 15:05:30 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506dddfaeab8eaa948000002
Add a comment...Christopher Whalen - a strong middle class is the bulwark of a real republic. It has been concerted attack by the PTB to destroy the middle class. Destroy the family is Marx's demand. Do so by: denigrating men, and making women actually think they are "equal", a bizarre concept if you actually think about it; destroy maturity in children (Dr. Spock was working for "them") so they become adult children (evil, no conscious) by a variety of techiniques, including modern teaching methods that promote feeling over thinking; promote pornography and sex like we are a bunch of perverts, which we are not - Kinsey was, and lied thru his teeth; make the woman think they have to work to fulfill themselves, instead of the critical job of raising the next generation properly; the media - you either know they are totally corrupt social engineers or you are hopeless. And so on. The family was intended to be destroyed, everyb ody dependent on the government.
Why is it ok to be a feminist, but not a rascist, sexist, and other "ist"? Its not - feminism is a cancer. And real women don't fall for it, but its hard. Very few real women anymore.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506d94796bb3f7de75000007John BarnesThu, 04 Oct 2012 09:51:53 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506d94796bb3f7de75000007
There is a fairly easy fix to the housing crisis. Change the bankruptcy laws back to what they were before the last change.Congress made as a result of huge contributions by the banking industry. Before that change, bankruptcy judges had the power to lower loan amounts to the value of the collateral. If that law was still in place, the banks would be making voluntary adjustments much more rapidly, more people would be staying in their homes and be able to afford to stay there, and the inventory would have a lot fewer additions.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506cd24269bedd3b5a000008Christopher WhalenWed, 03 Oct 2012 20:03:14 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506cd24269bedd3b5a000008
With the Bust Tax Cuts expiring, and the excessive new taxes that Obamacare will bring, the middle class will be further eroded.
The Traditional Middle Class does not exist.
The Middle Class, as it was originally defined after World War II, was gone long ago. It is only a business and political ploy that the corporate and political powers keep using that term for most Americans. Traditionally, having households where both parents had to work to subsist was considered Lower Class and Working Poor. Today that is what we mostly have, two parents working double time, saving nothing, and living check to check to pay their basic necessities. That is Middle Class? Of course it is not. That is Lower Class and working poor.
Most people who believe they are Middle Class have become enslaved to our lopsided tax system where only 50% of U.S. Citizens are paying federal income taxes. The “Middle Class” is given the burden of also supporting countless other families through our entitlement-bloated system, which is just a euphemism for coerced charity. No wonder it is almost impossible to truly get ahead today.
The Middle Class has become the workhorse forced to finance entitlement after entitlement, all the while being stripped of the lives that our forebears fought so hard to preserve. They have been forced to finance a liberal version of The American Dream, which does not include them.
The Gap between between the real Upper Class and this Lower Class is enormous. If the "Middle Class" realized that they had truly devolved to Lower Class and Working Poor, they would finally use their majority voice and change our entitlement-bloated tax system. Middle Class was traditionally one wage earner and one parent at home with children. The quality of life of a traditional Middle Class family is what the Upper Class enjoys today only. Things like leisure time, and the ability to have one parent be the main physical daily caregiver to your children, and real pensions awaiting us at a young retirement age, were traditional Middle Class norms.
Again, the traditional Middle Class has shrunken astronomically.
That is the reality. How can two parents who each work 60 hours per week, and have their children in the care of strangers most days, still believe that they are Middle Class? This is a mass rationalization propagated by employers, the government and big business.
The definition of family life has seen a degradation on so many levels compared to just two generations ago. Yet, there is no groundswell of mass outrage from this Middle Class majority.
Parents in Lower Class families have to work a combined 120 hours per week just to survive. If this is your situation, you are NOT Middle Class. Traditional Middle Class families do not have two parents working full time outside the home.
This all at the loss of the quality of their lives and their family's lives. Strangers raise many children in daycare while their parents work all day. Many people have willingly been pushed into a mild slavery, and all the while they believe that they are "getting somewhere." Living check to check is not Middle Class. Two full time wage earners represent lower class and working poor traditionally.
The largest untapped voting block are the Middle Class. They have been anesthetized and disarmed. The first step to change is to awaken this sleeping giant which is the Middle Class constituency to the reality of what the current income tax structure has done to their way of life.
It is difficult enough for us to provide for our own families. Today we are forced to pay for entitlements, which are simply the personal expenses of other citizens, against our will through income and payroll taxes. This entitlement mentality must be changed to preserve the American Way of Life.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c82076bb3f7ee75000001A lot of loveWed, 03 Oct 2012 14:20:55 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c82076bb3f7ee75000001
I'd like to thank you both for being here, i'd like to thank everyone who read this article and everyone who bought a house in the boom.
The best cure for depression is LOVE- and I love you all equally.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c2008eab8eaf04b000006djmidwestWed, 03 Oct 2012 07:22:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c2008eab8eaf04b000006
That should become easier as more people will be living out of their cars.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bdb956bb3f78532000003kingsappraiserWed, 03 Oct 2012 02:30:45 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bdb956bb3f78532000003
I make my living by preparing reports that state an opinion of value of Real Estate.
On the first page of a standard appraisal form there are 3 boxes to check. Ceck one : Values rising, declining or stable.
Thank you BI & you quality posters above, who help me keep it real.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bba74ecad04fa1b00000bsplinterWed, 03 Oct 2012 00:09:24 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bba74ecad04fa1b00000b
Reason No. 546: Obama spent ALL his mandate pushing congress to push through obamacare BEFORE addressing the house market.
Reason No. 547: Obama's focus on housing was to spend resources on folks who could never afford their homes to try to help them keep their homes they couldn't ever afford. Namely, the folks the Democrats say were "tricked" into mortgages they couldn't afford (e.g. no income loans etc.) INSTEAD of helping folks the could afford but needed to re-finance but couldn't since LTV too high since value dropped. These people want to stay in home, can pay, never took out more then can chew, but could have gotten relief and should have gotten relief first since played by the rules.
Reason No. 548: Not letting the market bottom and rebound. Slowing down foreclosures, etc. has just prolonged the pain and increased uncertainty. The President doesn't have any idea of how markets work. ZIP. Nice guy, great a basketball, fantastic speaker and very smart in a lot a ways, but appears utterly clueless about markets. The Nutty Professor.
Reason No. 549 - Jobs. Should have been the No. 1 focus. How to get businesses to want to hire more? He created way too much uncertainty with Obamacare, regulations, lack of any fiscal plan, etc. What is killing this economy is the massive amount of uncertainty.
I could go on and on, but it's late.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bad3e6bb3f74b5f000004TEPTue, 02 Oct 2012 23:13:02 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bad3e6bb3f74b5f000004
I'm over 60 and virtually all the recessions I can remember began with residential real estate, save the mid '70s after Nixon shut the gold exchange window ('71) and the oil-producers retaliated with raising the price of their 'real commodity'.
We have to reject the NAR's version of rez-real estate as a sacrament of the US economy like it was motherhood, apple pie, and baseball. Horseshit, it's just the biggest consumer durable.
We should take a page from the car biz playbook, and have retail real estate "dealers" who can balance out inventory, liquify for cash flow, and get efficient price/value discovery vis-a-vis wholesale auto auctions. RE agents should never get more than 1-2% of the gross, not some obscene 7-10% on a transaction they have zero risk in. If it isn't fundamentally reformed to reflect what the industry truly is, we'll sure enough, have another fucking RE crash leading to something bigger.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba19569bedde265000039WHRTue, 02 Oct 2012 22:23:17 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba19569bedde265000039
I believe you are correct. The problem is that interest rates are so low, people with cash are buying houses with cash with the idea of renting.
I spoke with a friend who practices real estate foreclosure law in the Orlando metro area. Seminole county (suburban Orlando) just received a grant to hire retired judges to clear the backlog of 2009 foreclosures! Her firm currently is represent 29,000 clients in foreclosure or seeking modification.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b9dbeeab8eabc31000002WestcoastliberalTue, 02 Oct 2012 22:06:54 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b9dbeeab8eabc31000002
No one should be paying more than 8 or 9% on credit cards either, but good luck changing that.
BTW there is zero housing recovery; it only takes a minute for any dumbass to figure out the TBTF banksters are holding inventory out of foreclosure..there are lots of stories out about people who haven't paid their mortgage for 3 years and STILL have no foreclosure.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b93566bb3f70129000013TorranceTue, 02 Oct 2012 21:22:30 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b93566bb3f70129000013
There's no reason anyone should be getting a 5.5% interest rate on my house at this point in time, yet even with the programs Obama has put out, HAMP & HARP 2.0, I can't get any relief. Unless they want me to cease making payments on my house further deflating the market price for housing, they need to seriously make refinancing stupid easy. No one should be making 5.5% interest on anyone right now. No one.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8e40eab8ea6c0b00000chstad6Tue, 02 Oct 2012 21:00:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8e40eab8ea6c0b00000c
Thanks, Mathew and Mamta for the alternative view of housing. Out here in California, housing is dead despite the global discussion of increased housing pricies. That's garbage, especially, since most of the houses being purchased in Southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix are all cash buyers (investors) who rent theses properties out. Real buyers are scarce out here and I bet it is similar in other real estate markets. Keep up the good work! Unfortunately, we've become a slave to the MSM's headline grabbing garbage. Thanks for the brief analysis.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8b0ceab8ea1f08000001Fritz PfisterTue, 02 Oct 2012 20:47:08 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8b0ceab8ea1f08000001
Surprised? Shouldn't be. Only Obama pimps in the media have repeated the lie housing was in recovery. Propagandizing Obama's way to the presidency aided and abetted by a complicit media will mean the death of the capitalist economy and probably our Constitutional Republic. The fundamental transformation completed. But he's a nice guy.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8a616bb3f7fb19000010RealistTue, 02 Oct 2012 20:44:17 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b8a616bb3f7fb19000010
Some good charts here although timespan is a bit short on a few. Realestate markets are to some extent local, but in the big picture highly correlated to the overall economy. With high employment sticking, wages not keeping up with inflation, ZIRP policy severly impacting savers and monetary debasement by printing fiat money a real sustained recovery in housing is not going to happen anytime soon. As inflation (due to money printing) ensures that every month prices for all goods increases, even maintaining a house will be more challenging. There is a lot more to housing than mortages, it all comes down to earnings how much can a household afford? The answer is less and less as every dollar buys fever and fever goods.
But while we wait for the recovery, pay attention to other bubbles waiting to burst.
And as the final icing on the cake, US debt is currently 103% of GDP and rising by 1%+ a month. Spain is increasing the debt by 7% a year, US 12%, quite something, recovery anyone?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b85b2ecad04a73d000003MatthewTue, 02 Oct 2012 20:24:18 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b85b2ecad04a73d000003
Only one chart needed:
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/XJtgM.png" target="_blank">http://i.imgur.com/XJtgM.png</a>http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b7cf969bedd3b14000018bubbleTue, 02 Oct 2012 19:47:05 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b7cf969bedd3b14000018
tulip bubble... south sea china bubble.. nasdaq 5000 bubble (pets.com).. in the history of bubbles.. most do not come back to anything like their historic highs in a person's lifetime. do you think this real estate bubble is any different? real estate will continue to decline over the next 15-20 years. all the fed intervention will just prolong the pain. study bubbles and you'll understand why by the time it comes back you'll be dead and buried. there have been periods in US history where real estate has declined for 30 plus years... we are at the start of a major secular decline in real estate ala Japan where real estate is 75% off of peak prices... we're only 30% so far... you do the mathhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b36c4eab8eadc41000001Mamta BadkarTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:47:32 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b36c4eab8eadc41000001
Absolutely, thanks for reading Gary!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b2dbceab8ea1b2b000013Gary AndersonTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:09:00 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b2dbceab8ea1b2b000013
I support Obama. The housing bubble is a total scam. So much for your theory.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b2c9d69bedde648000058Gary AndersonTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:04:13 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b2c9d69bedde648000058
The wealthy are tapping into this. Siegal is the Wall Street bulldog pumper.
The best chart is the mortgage depression chart. Thank you for publishing this, Mamta!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b07a96bb3f7ed23000006MajorTue, 02 Oct 2012 11:26:33 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b07a96bb3f7ed23000006
So much fuss over a market that's for nothing more than yet-another depreciating asset (like cars) and our FED's largest ever contribution to its favorite businesses -- wholly-unproductive, inflation-subsidized, debt-fueled, consumption.
No doubt, much of the FED's silence, and failure to exercise its regulatory authority over the decriminalization of banks securitizing their own mortgage pools -- and, of course the whole "subprime" debacle -- was in its joy at seeing (the upstroke) of this, <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OEHRENWBSHNO?cid=32258" target="_blank">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OEHRENWBSHNO?cid=32258</a>
'Have to admire though, Ben's ingenious solution -- instead of having banks write down bogus loan assets -- from their "Model" value -- he'll keep going with QE4ever until inflation marks down the dollar sufficiently to have current nominal loan valuations equal nominal market values.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b04f2eab8eaf349000007CleteTue, 02 Oct 2012 11:14:58 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b04f2eab8eaf349000007
The "much-touted housing recovery" only exists in the minds and on the websites of the most dedicated Obama-supporting journalists. Like BI, for example. Out here in the real world, housing is still so deflated that it's not only no longer an investment, it's a true expense even with the tax benefits.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506afe0fecad04113e000001Black BobTue, 02 Oct 2012 10:45:35 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506afe0fecad04113e000001
FINALLY...All I hear about is this housing recovery, but I can tell you as a college educated, 6 figure earning 35 yr. old with kids...my generation is tapped and not participating in this. My demo is suppose to be upgrading right now, dumping the starter home and grabbing the big one. And...we're NOT. Why, because most of us bought in at the right age, but the wrong time. Starting a family and becoming "middle class" for a huge chunk of the educated population didn't coincide with proper market conditions. Now, we're stuck.
So, here, at the tail end of Gen X our babyboomer parents aren't gunna lend the dough because they are preparing for retirement. The 40 somethings have liquidity from being old enough to enjoy 2 stock bubbles, but they have college to think about. The 35 and younger crowd *with kids, we are relatively broke.
Write about us please...we're suppose to be the spenders right now? Can't even imagine what 35k / year millenials and Gen-y's are thinking about.
= What housing recovery...HOW!!?!?!?!?!!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506afcbdeab8eae936000008Alternate ViewTue, 02 Oct 2012 10:39:57 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506afcbdeab8eae936000008
The housing market is just a distraction for Ben to point to while he pumps money into the TBTF banks he doesn't regulate. Thank you BI for doing you part to keep the cover story going.