Now that samsung released the source code for nx300, many photogrphers with coding skills could be interested in adding functions to it (ala chdk, but with a much more powerful hardware). So the situation could change and samsung could become a big player in the mirrorless market.

Camera holders are always pretty snobby about cameras. I mean which camera manufacturer in the world sells the most cameras? The answer (I am 90% certain) is Samsung. In 1Q while compacts/DSLRs/mirroless were declining 43%/23%/18.5%, smartphone sales increased 63m units yoy to 210m units. So 210m units compared to 603k units for mirrorless. Samsung sells something like 50% more units than Apple, so I assume it is the biggest player.

One rather suspects that Samsung doesnt market its mirrorless offering aggressively because it knows better than anyone there is absolutely no point. I mean I suspect the nearest that Samsung is going to come to a serious camera launch is the Samsung S4 Zoom which is essentially an S4 with a 10x optical zoom camera builtin - it will probably sell more than any other compact in the world and we will happily ignore it because it has a phone attached.

Olympus and Panasonic are being battered for being optimistic about growth in mirrorless when there isnt any. Nikon is forecasting 10% sales growth this year and its markets are in much sharper decline. It seems that ALL camera manufacturers are determined to be rigidly optimistic rather than face up to the market reality. I cant help but feel 2012 will be looked back as a bumper year for cameras - when M43 came into its own with the Sony sensor and OMD, when FF became vaguely affordable 6D/D600 and when a virtually medium format FF was introduced. There seems very little pushing the envelope this year.

I mean the signs are that 'digital cameras' in there entirety are going to be a small niche at the edge of the smartphone camera market.

2012 saw....

78m compact sales

20m ILC sales

How big exactly will the market be in 5 years time? Will compact sales exceed 10m units? Will ILC sales exceed 20m units (maybe those that have them will not upgrade nearly as much.)

So to some extent it looks like mirrorless is doing better than other areas of the business while all that is actually happening is that everyone is having a frantic race to the bottom.