The Daily Lard 10-17-11

Douglas LeeOct 17, 2011 7:20 AM

Good Morning, Broncos fans! More information is finally leaking out regarding the Broncos' near trade of Kyle Orton to the Dolphins. Apparently, it was Miami owner Stephen Ross who nixed the deal, because he is set upon having a clear franchise QB in place for the 2012 season, and well, you know... Ross also intends to hire someone with the stature of Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher to either run his team or coach it. In case you care about these things for some odd reason, Cowher was TJ's first coaching choice for the Broncos post-Shanahan, while I was hoping for Fisher earlier this year.

Further, Chris Mortensen says the deal was so close to fruition that Kyle's transportation to the Sunshine State had been arranged. In other words, the Broncos were more than prepared to ship Orton off, as we've figured since about nine months ago. But you know, continue to blame John Fox or John Elway for Orton not being moved. We don't need no stinking facts when we have our sights set on someone, right?

UPDATE 9:43AM ET - Links to Peter King, Mike Silver and Jonathan Comey's columns have been added, as well as Klis' updated article on the Lloyd trade talks.

Broncos

Mike Klis has updated his Lloyd trade talk article to say that the team offered Brandon a two-year deal with no signing bonus. It cannot be stated strongly enough how underwhelming such a proposal sounds. Klis also say the Broncos would indeed be willing to trade Orton to the Raiders, should Oakland be interested.

Andrew Mason thinks it would make no sense for Denver to deal Orton at this point, and he says part of the motivation for seeking a trade of Brandon Lloyd is that the team wants to find out what it has in Demaryius Thomas. Plus, Mason says that Eddie Royal (assuming he's not traded), Demaryius and Julius Thomas are all expected to have full weeks of practice leading up to the Miami game.

Andrew Carter profiles QB Matt Moore as he prepares for his first start for the Dolphins. Plus, what Carter says to expect from tonight's game.

Trimmings

Oakland took down the Browns 24-17 on the day they honored Al Davis, but they lost Jason Campbell for the season with a broken collarbone. According to Jason Cole, the Raiders are trying hard to acquire Carson Palmer in response to the loss of Campbell, but he writes that Bengals owner Mike Brown is highly unlikely to budge on dealing his "retired" QB away. Meanwhile, Chuck Norris Peyton Hillis missed most of the second half with a hamstring injury.

Atlanta got two TDs from Michael Turner, scored 17 fourth-quarter points, and picked off Cam Newton three times to beat the Panthers 31-17.

Cincy needed some big, late plays on special teams (blocked FG) and defense (fumble return TD) to get by the winless Colts 27-17.

The Niners moved to 5-1 and handed Detroit their first loss of the season 25-19 as Alex Smith threw a six-yard TD pass on fourth down to go ahead in the closing minutes. Matt Bowen is rather impressed by the Niners. But hilariously, the story of the game was Jim Harbaugh celebrating a bit too exuberantly, pissing off the apparently short-tempered Jim Schwartz and sparking a mini-brawl. And, this all may have started with Schwartz strangely taunting Harbaugh after the Niners coach threw a challenge flag on a scoring play and received a 15-yard penalty.

Green Bay cruised to a 24-3 victory over the hapless Rams as Aaron Rodgers threw another three TD passes, including a 93-yarder to Jordy Nelson.

The G-Men squeaked by the Bills 27-24 on three rushing TDs from Ahmad Bradshaw and a late Lawrence Tynes field goal.

Pittsburgh finally got their running game working as Rashard Mendenhall gave them 146 yards and a score to lead them to a 17-13 victory over Jacksonville. CHFF's Zachary Pierpoint breaks down the Steelers' performance.

Philly defeated Washington 20-13 as Shanny yanked Rex Grossman for John Beck after the pudgy QB was picked four times.

New England scored the game-winning TD on a pass from Tom Brady to Aaron Hernandez with just 22 seconds to go as the Pats beat the Cowboys 20-16 in the shootout that turned out to be a game dominated by turnovers (six of them). After the game, Jerry Jones said that RB Tashard Choice is available via trade.

Tampa Bay beat the visiting Saints 26-20 thanks to two Josh Freeman TD passes, while Saints TE Jimmy Graham ran into Sean Payton on the sideline and broke the HC's knee and tibia, and tore his MCL. Incredibly, Payton continued coaching and calling plays the rest of the day - first on the sideline and then from the team's locker room.

Chicago walloped Minnesota 39-10 on the strength of two Devin Hester scores - a 48-yard reception and a 98-yard kick return, surprisingly the longest of his career. However, Hester left with a chest injury. Christmas Ape bids Donovan McNabb and his mom adieu.

Scrapple

Pat Kirwan, Andy Benoit, Brian Burke, Matt Bowen, Jonathan Comey, Nolan Nawrocki, Eric Edholm analyze the day's action, plus its most and least valuable players according to MJD. Kirwan thinks the Raiders should call Denver regarding Orton's availability if they can't first strike a deal with either David Garrard or Mark Bulger, but he figures the Broncos wouldn't want to send Orton to a rival. Wow, really? Why not? Because he's going to light us up or something? If The Crypt Keeper were still around, perhaps there'd be no chance of a Denver-Oakland trade, especially one of such significance. Actually, now that I think of it, there would be something twistedly funny about all of us having to watch Orton in the playoffs for the freaking Raiders...

Peter King, Mike Silver, Don Banks, John Clayton and Clark Judge wrap up Sunday's games. Clayton thinks that the Rams' decision to inactivate Mike Sims-Walker for yesterday's game suggests they'll make a play for Brandon Lloyd, and Clayton suggests that St. Loo should give up a third- or fourth-rounder to do so. Banks agrees, writing that the Rams should do whatever it takes to reunite Lloyd with Josh McDaniels.

Meanwhile, Ernie Accorsi told PK that Andrew Luck is in the same class of prospects as was John Elway, and that three first-round picks including a top-10 choice in 2012 would be an appropriate price for the top overall pick. Plus, King thinks the compensatory pick the Broncos (or any other team they trade him to) would receive for the free agency loss of Brandon Lloyd would be a fifth-rounder. So, unless Denver gets a higher pick than that, all they'll be doing is saving about a million bucks if they ship him off.

Among PFW's latest Insider quotes, one coach/evaluator says teams would never tank it, even for a player of Andrew Luck's caliber.

In honor of Schwartz/Harbaugh, Doug Farrar revisits some of the more entertaining coach confrontations from over the years, including McDaniels and Handshake Haley, of course.

Christmas Ape revisits the most entertaining moments from yesterday, including LeSean McCoy punching the biggest target available to him while celebrating a TD.

Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe thinks the NFL has turned the game into flag football and would like to see a dialing back of the rules which permit wideouts to run free. (via FO)

Over the years of failed drafts 1999-2005 and then again in 07 we struggled to get and keep quality players and had to dig deep to pay for these failures in FA signees.

Even then we go some real toads. That basically showed up enough to keep getting paychecks. But certainly not worth the price we had to pay.

It might surprise some to know that of all the day one picks shanny made that was Picks 1-3 for most of those years then 1-2 and just this past few #1. IIRC out of 45 or so picks only 5 signed a second contract after their rookie contract was up.

Price, Mobely, greise , Wilson and DJ.

I firmly believe you build Your foundation out of those picks 1-3. And if you do yor going to be consistently in the playoffs.

Hit on those top picks means it will take us 3-5 years to make this team something special. Long term.

Posted by lonestar on 2011-10-18 08:30:19

Lloyd&#8217s deal is for a &#8216conditional mid-round pick&#8217 according to Elway&#8217s tweet. My initial thought is that a &#8216mid-round pick&#8217 in a 7 round draft should be a 3rd or a 4th, depending probably on performance. Of course, in FO-speak, &#8216mid&#8217 could even be a 5th or 6th, but if Elway&#8217s more or less accurate, Denver should at least get a 4th for him. Sad to see him go, but it&#8217s life in the No Fun League

Apparently, Royal requested his trade some time ago, and Denver hasn&#8217t honored that request. He&#8217s suffered with injuries each year - I tend to think it&#8217s mostly due to the return as well as the WR duties, and they brought in Quan Cosby as a returner, so perhaps Royal&#8217s role will change for the better. With Lloyd and Orton gone (Orton is there for the moment, but with no new contract&#8230.), Eddie should see more receptions.

I have to wonder if, last winter when he first brought up the trade (according to the reports, which can be inaccurate), Royal was looking at playing for his 4th HC in just 3 years - Shanny, McD, Studes and now Fox and just didn&#8217t want the drama or the issues of changing systems yet again. Maybe he&#8217d like to play for a somewhat less troubled franchise, sad as that is to say. It should be a tough negotiation if they want to keep him - there hasn&#8217t been much interest reported in him, but he&#8217s a UFA after the season and can do as he pleases. He&#8217ll make 555,000 dollars this season, and then he&#8217s a free agent.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-10-17 19:37:21

For those who keep grumbling about the Broncos&#8217 current cap situation and how cheap they are, please consider the following:

1. Look at how many current Broncos are set to become free agents.

2. Look at how many players on other teams are set to become free agents.

3. Look at the positions where the Broncos have the greatest needs.

4. Put the three things together and then you will likely have a good idea as to what the Broncos intend to use that cap space for.

That is what is called the long-term picture, folks. The more you look at long-term stuff, the more you will understand why the Broncos are making certain moves.

And if I sound like I&#8217m being blunt, well, I am. I just think too many people focus too much on &#8220now&#8221 and not enough on the long term.

Posted by Bob Morris on 2011-10-17 18:38:58

Yeah, Cody - somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million. Ugh.

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2011-10-17 16:55:39

Doug-

Do you know our current cap numbers for this year and next?aren&#8217t we well under? Bowlen/Ellis cheaping out on us? Tough pill to swallow.

Posted by codygras on 2011-10-17 16:52:37

When people talk about teams with deep receiving corps, it&#8217s interesting to look at one of those teams. New Orleans has such a corps, but the Saints have one guy, Marques Colston is set to become a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Saints will re-sign him&#8230 he&#8217s 29 years old, has battled injuries and the Saints have other players set to become free agents (Drew Brees, Carl Nicks and Tracy Porter are among the most notable) and thus the team will have to determine how much of a priority it is to bring back Colston.

So what do the Broncos do when they have not just Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal set to become free agents, but also the likes of Matt Prater, Joe Mays, Wesley Woodyard, Brodrick Bunkley and quite a few others. Remember, for each player you choose to re-sign, that decreases the chance you will re-sign another player.

Ted raises an excellent point about compensatory picks. The real issue to ask is if the Broncos believe they will get good value in return for any players traded. If they believe they do, the trade will be made. If not, then it won&#8217t happen.

Regardless, the big picture fans need to remember is that the Broncos have a LOT of players set to become free agents and need to look closely not just at who makes the most headlines, but who really adds value to the team in the long term. Here at IAOFM, you will get plenty of insight about Bunkley, Mays and Woodyard, but who at the Denver Post, ESPN or Sports Illustrated is talking about these guys? The reason they talk more about Lloyd is not just because Lloyd&#8217s on the trading block, but because Lloyd makes the highlight reel plays.

Posted by Bob Morris on 2011-10-17 15:50:54

A couple of thoughts about draft picks&#8230

Compensatory picks for free agents lost after this year won&#8217t come until 2013, and that&#8217s a key thing to keep in mind. If I can get a 4 in 2012, that&#8217s a lot better than a 5 in 2013, which is generally considered to be worth a 6 in 2012. (The NFL rule of thumb is that you have to discount picks one round per year into the future.)

Also, compensatory picks aren&#8217t as valuable as normal picks, because they can&#8217t be traded. Acquiring the pick of another team has the added value of flexibility.

Finally, there&#8217s no guarantee that a pick for Lloyd would be a #5, because the NFL doesn&#8217t share their methodology on awarding compensatory picks. PK&#8217s guess is definitely of rectal origin. The Broncos may lose Lloyd, and then sign somebody else who the NFL deems to be of greater or equal value, and there could be no compensatory pick awarded. You never know.

I like Lloyd a good deal as a player, and Royal has tried hard and been a good citizen. Since I have rebuilding fever, though, I&#8217m cool with trading both in the next couple days, if we get some 2012 picks for them. Kyle Orton and DJ Williams can join them too.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2011-10-17 15:19:09

I hope the FO can get as much as possible for anyone on the team. I realize there will be compensatory picks if these guys walk at the end of the year, so they shouldn&#8217t just take anything. However, getting these guys out of the building&#8212lockerroom issues, or no lockerroom issues&#8212and giving the younger players a shot to learn how to play together makes some sense.

I want to see if a Decker-Thomas-Willis WR trio could work. I want to see how Julius Thomas and Virgil Green play together. How do they all respond to Tebow? On defense, the big one is safety. Can Moore and Carter make enough plays to make up for the surely numerous mental errors that they will commit as they learn? Same goes for Von&#8212how long will it be before he learns to drop and start making picks?

Like it or not, the players mentioned above will comprise the young nucleus of the team over the next three years&#8212even if a fire sale double-dip rebuild occurs. We need to see what they have as much as we need to see what Tim has.

Posted by ButteBronco on 2011-10-17 15:05:03

CB, it was mentioned in yesterday&#8217s Lard that Royal requested a trade as did Lloyd.

Doug, I&#8217ve been out of the loop and see no links relating to an Eddie Royal trade. There&#8217s talk of an Eddie Royal trade?

Posted by Chibronx on 2011-10-17 13:49:24

I have a feeling there is a lot going on inside of dove Valley right now. I understand the Lloyd trade if you know you aren&#8217t going to resign him. I don&#8217t understand the Royal trade, unless they also know they aren&#8217t going to resign him.

In the case of Royal, I always felt that it was a scheme problem for why he dropped off so dramatically. But who knows. Something is happening in Dove Valley&#8230.

Posted by SpaceCowboy on 2011-10-17 13:16:57

You know, I just find myself more and more worrying that there is some undivuldged issue running underneath all these issues that keep popping up in Denver over the last 5 years. Why would we trade Lloyd for a MID round pick? The odds of a mid round draft pick becoming more then a part time special teams contributor are slim at best. But with Lloyd you have a known commodity. He is a helluva WR. Even if Denver is going more conservative, why in the world would you not want a reciever who led the league last year? Even if you want to see what D.Thomas has, you don&#8217t NEED to get. Rid of anyone. So why trade your best WR, who was a league leader last year, for an unknown commodity who will sit in a pool of players and get passed over for other players ATLEAST 64 times? That is an obviously risky trade at best, and more likely just an outright fail. The only causes that makes sense are Lloyd being a HUGE distraction (which have seen 0 signs of and, as doug pointed out recently, quite the opposite) or Denver is trying to save $ and not pay a vet who has earned a big payday. Particularly if the rumors that Denver offered him an almost insultingly low contract offer are accurate, then the cause for this supposed trade is $.

Denver has never been the Giants or the Redskins in terms of net income, but we&#8217ve always been able to pay our vets properly and have had an issue with OVER paying some of our FAs. So what&#8217s changed? I just don&#8217t feel like I can see the bigger picture in Denver anymore. I don&#8217t think we are an attractive landing spot for players anymore between booing fans and a FO that seems to not pay its best contributors. This isn&#8217t the Denver I knew and loved.

I&#8217m a Broncos fan. Always have been, always will be. But I have some serious concerns these days that I never would have imagined possible just a few years ago. Takes a bit of the luster away.

Maybe Tebow will carry us all to the promiseland 100 QB draws at a time and all this will go away in 11 games time. Who knows. <img alt="wink" height="19" src="http://www.singernet.com/images/smileys/wink.gif" style="border:0;" width="19">

Posted by EastCoastBronco on 2011-10-17 13:06:27

Like sand thru the hour glass, these are the days of our Broncos. It&#8217s amazing how many soap-opera-ish moments we&#8217ve had in the last 3 yrs (orton near trade sparked thought).

Trade Lloyd to the Patriots along with our 3rd or 4th rd pick and take one of their 1st rd draft picks in the upcoming draft.

How does Oakland plan to trade with Cincy? Do they have any 2014 picks left? Anyone notice how Aaron Curry played for Oakland?

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-10-17 12:51:23

I don&#8217t buy Mason&#8217s logic about seeing what they have in DT. Setting aside the fact that all evidence points to DT never being able to stay healthly, why can&#8217t you see what you have in DT even with the other recievers still here? The reciever position is not the QB position. Look at the last two SB champs. They both have an abundance of weapons.