Well this month looks like being cool throughout. No real warm up in the second half. In fact the next two days will see the highest positive temperature anomalies of the month and even those are not very impressive and are mainly due to high minimums.

Now looking at potentially a sub 11C month. Current May CET estimate is 10.96C. That would be the coolest May since 2015 and only the fourth time the May CET has been below 11C since 1996.

Expect a significant downward adjustment again this month. Hadley is currently running 0.43C above my estimate.

Crikey! So the current CET is even worse than it looks! I am surprised because we really have had some lovely weather this month, although a few frosty nights early on and low night temps all month, so I suspect the minima have kept it down. Of course this is in my bit of the world and not in a CET area.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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The strongest late-spring stratospheric warming of the polar vortex on record really made a mess of signal-based long-range estimations this month. Only as we head into June does the resulting high-latitude blocking pattern look to relax sufficiently for the UK to start seeing some appreciably warm temps. Though mainly the blocking just focuses on the Pacific side and so 'leaves room' for ridges across the UK with LP systems moving slowly by to the north.

The patterns therefore look to remain very stagnant, with little sign of the typical resurgence of westerlies in response to the rapidly increasing thermal gradient between the low-mid latitudes and the high latitudes.

This raises some very interesting possibilities for June.

For example, the stagnated plume of the GFS 00z is not at all unrealistic, and gives me a rough CET estimate for the opening 9 days of June that's in the low 17s. As far as I'm aware, while that would not be exceptional for July or August, it's near record territory for June - which really shows how much the 'thermal lag' plus typical return of westerlies tends to peg back the temps in the UK.

As the Arctic latitudes warm faster than the lower latitudes, with increasingly early onset of spring heating via snow cover loss, I can see this thermal lag becoming increasingly weak in the decades to come, and as such June could be the summer month that sees the greatest warming trend in the UK and N. Europe generally.

Given that the days are at their longest, the potential is there for June to become seriously toasty. I'd not be surprised to see (at least) one June CET in the 18s within the next two decades.

Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago.

Good to see the figure at least holding steady. The cooler weather for this week doesn't seem to be as potent/prolonged as was once forecast. In addition there should be some very mild (even warm) nights coming up which should help nudge the figure higher, despite daytime maxes in the low 20s being hardly notable for late May. It's just a pity May doesn't have 32 days so it could include the very warm/hot temps for Saturday. But then of course we have the downgrade. It helped me out in April but won't in May. Why does there always seem to be a downgrade, is it simply the correction for the urban heat island effect?

Very interesting to see how this one pans out; tonight and tomorrow night look pretty warm for the time of year right across the CET region; tomorrow and Friday could potentially see some warm days too. Remember it only takes a 20C max and 12C min to give us a 16C CET day- but with only two days to play with, that would give an excess over the current figure of <10, so about .3 in overall terms. IF HadCET is correct (and remember GW suspects it's too high at the moment and will be downjusted) then we'd perhaps end on 11.5-11.6. Still too low for my own bet, but a smaller gap than I'd feared say a week ago.

Average now seems cool after so many warm Mays... out of interest does anyone have the highest temp for the month so far and is it the lowest for May for some time as I am kind of thinking it must be given that even 1996 managed to go above 25c at the end ?

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