Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2011.

In 2010, the Reds took advantage of one of the weakest divisions in baseball to earn their first playoff appearance in 15 years. But after an offseason in which it stood pat and their two top competitors improved, Cincinnati found itself back in a familiar position—third place, with a record four games under .500.

For the 10th time in 11 years, the Reds finished with a losing record. That disappointing performance left Cincinnati with a difficult question to ponder throughout the winter:

Was it just a setback, or is this a team that's best work already is behind it?

The Reds have little choice but to believe that 2011 was the fluke. The core of their team is under contract for 2012 and they once again will have little salary flexibility to make significant additions. If they're to compete with the Brewers and Cardinals, they'll have to make trades or improve from within.

The main culprit for the downturn was the pitching staff. Cincinnati finished second in the National League in scoring but dropped to 12th in runs allowed after ranking seventh in 2010. Bronson Arroyo allowed a club-record 46 homers, while Edinson Volquez (acquired in a 2009 trade for Josh Hamilton) ranked last among NL pitchers with at least 100 innings with a 5.71 ERA.

While the Reds have one of baseball's better farm systems, they don't have pitching reinforcements available to step in. Their best mound prospect, Daniel Corcino, hasn't pitched above low Class A. Their second-best, 2011 first-round choice Robert Stephenson, is a teenager who has yet to make his pro debut.

By contrast, Cincinnati has more big league-ready position prospects than it has open spots in the lineup. Devin Mesoraco is ready to take over as the team's primary catcher with Ramon Hernandez departing via free agency, but Yonder Alonso may still be on the outside looking in despite posting a .943 OPS in 88 late-season at-bats. His best position is first base, currently occupied by 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto, and Alonso has yet to prove he could handle left field or third base.

If Zack Cozart is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he should be the Reds' starting shortstop—though they waited three months to call him up in 2011 despite having problems at the position. Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco have nothing left to prove in Triple-A but once again will serve as backups to oft-injured Scott Rolen at third base, with Frazier possibly getting time in left field as well.

Mesoraco (2007) and Alonso (2008) continue a strong run of Cincinnati first-round picks that's even more impressive considering the team usually heeds MLB's bonus recommendations. The Reds' other first-rounders form 2004 through 2009 (Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Mike Leake) already are fixtures on the big league club, and catcher Yasmani Grandal (2010) is progressing nicely in the minors.

Cincinnati has been more aggressive in the last two drafts, further fortifying its strong system. The Reds gave Grandal a $3.2 million major league contract as the No. 12 pick and Stephenson a $2 million bonus at No. 27. They also went over slot for several intriguing later-round selections, most notably third baseman Gabriel Rosa, lefthander Amir Garrett and outfielder Kyle Waldrop.

Background: It's not often that a Pennsylvania prospect turns into a first-round pick. There have been just four in the last 10 years: Chris Lubanski (2003), Neil Walker (2004), Mesoraco (2007) and Jesse Biddle (2010). Mesoraco was difficult to scout, because he didn't catch much in high school or on the showcase circuit in 2006 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. The short Pennsylvania high school season didn't help either, but he was willing to take extra batting practice or go to workouts whenever teams asked. Much like Walker, another catching prospect, Mesoraco got off to a slow start in the minors before putting it together. The Reds signed him for $1.4 million as the 15th overall pick, then watched him struggle with hand and finger injuries while batting .240/.311/.368 through his first three years as a pro. Over the last two seasons, Mesoraco has improved his condition and blossomed into one of the more productive catchers in the minors. He hit 26 homers in 2010 and ranked as the Triple-A International League's top position prospect in 2011. Called to Cincinnati in September, he hit his first two big league homers and started for much of the final three weeks.

Scouting Report: Mesoraco is the rare catcher who has the potential to be an above-average hitter with above-average power. He has an uppercut swing with a lot of bat speed, plus the ability to turn on a pitch and park it over the fence. He does a better job of using the whole field then he did early in his career, but his power still comes almost solely to his pull side—not one of his homers in 2011 went to right field. Mesoraco has developed the ability to take a pitch on the outer half and line it up the middle, which allows him to hit for average. His selectiveness enables him to work counts to get pitches he can drive. Like most catchers, he has below-average speed, though he runs the bases with intelligence. Behind the plate, Mesoraco is an average receiver. He had problems when he wore down at the end of 2010 and struggles occasionally with velocity. He led IL catchers with 10 errors. He's relatively agile and consistently displays average 2.0-second pop times on throws to second base. He threw out 28 percent of basestealers in 2011, down from 41 percent the year before. Mesoraco's biggest impediment has been a series of nagging injuries. Finger and hand injuries have dogged him, but he's not one to beg out of the lineup. The Reds have been thrilled with his makeup, one of the reasons they kept promoting him when he struggled early in his career. He responded to his difficulties by just working harder.

The Future: Mesoraco is ready to take over as Cincinnati's everyday catcher and has no obstacles in his path. Ramon Hernandez departed as a free agent, and Ryan Hanigan, signed to a modest long-term deal, is better suited as a backup. A potential all-star, Mesoraco will get time to lay claim to a starting job before 2010 first-round pick Yasmani Grandal (ticketed for Triple-A Louisville) is ready. No team has a better pair of catching prospects in the upper levels of the minor leagues.

Background: Hamilton became the first minor leaguer in a decade to top 100 steals in 2011. The former Mississippi State wide receiver recruit recovered from hitting .195 through late May to bat .316 afterward, and he moved to shortstop after playing second base in 2010.

Scouting Report: Hamilton's speed is one of the easiest 80 grades a scout will ever hand out. He regularly outruns pitchouts, slide steps and pickoff throws. He still has plenty of work to do on the rest of his game, however. He's a raw hitter with little power, and he needs to improve his bunting and plate discipline. At the Reds' insistence, he has stuck with switch-hitting and ended up hitting better as a lefty (.721 OPS) than from his natural right side (.648 OPS) in 2011. Hamilton shows excellent range at shortstop, but his hands aren't soft and he lacks the arm strength to make plays deep in the hole. His low arm slot makes many of his throws tail, costing him accuracy. Some scouts believe he'll eventually move to second or center field.

The Future: Hamilton is an off-the-charts athlete who made significant improvements in the second half of 2011. He'll move up to high Class A Bakersfield and will need at least a couple of more years to develop before he's ready to unleash his speed on the majors.

Year

Team

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

'09

Reds (R)

166

19

34

6

3

0

11

11

47

14

3

.205

.253

.277

'10

Billings (R)

283

61

90

13

10

2

24

28

56

48

9

.318

.383

.456

'11

Dayton (LoA)

550

99

153

18

9

3

50

52

133

103

20

.278

.340

.360

Minor League Totals

999

179

277

37

22

5

85

91

236

165

32

.277

.338

.373

3.

Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF

Born: Apr 08, 1987

B-T: L-R

Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 240

Drafted: Miami, 2008 (1st round). Signed by: Tony Arias

Background: An emigree from Cuba, where his father Luis played for the Havana Industriales, Alonso established himself as one of college baseball's best hitters while at Miami. The seventh overall pick in the 2008 draft, he received the most lucrative draft deal in franchise history, a $4.55 million big league contract that included a $2 million bonus. His climb to the majors was slower than the Reds expected, but that's largely because he's blocked by 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto.

Scouting Report: Alonso is an above-average hitter with a good sense of the strike zone and the ability to hit to all fields. Cincinnati always has believed that he has plus power, which he showed in his limited big league trial in the second half of 2011. While hitting comes easy for Alonso, defense has been an issue. He's adequate at first base, which is really his only viable option. He has some arm strength, but his well below-average speed doesn't play well in left field and he has looked overmatched at third base.

The Future: After hitting .330/.398/.545 in 88 big league at-bats, Alonso is ready for regular playing time with the Reds. They need to find a spot for him to play, either via a trade or by enduring his defensive deficiencies in left field.

Year

Team

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

'08

Sarasota (HiA)

19

1

6

1

0

0

2

5

5

0

0

.316

.440

.368

'09

Reds (R)

15

0

2

0

0

0

0

3

1

0

0

.133

.278

.133

'09

Sarasota (HiA)

175

21

53

13

0

7

38

24

30

0

1

.303

.383

.497

'09

Carolina (AA)

105

12

31

11

0

2

14

14

15

1

0

.295

.372

.457

'10

Carolina (AA)

101

19

27

5

0

3

13

19

16

4

2

.267

.388

.406

'10

Louisville (AAA)

406

50

120

31

2

12

56

37

76

9

1

.296

.355

.470

'10

Cincinnati (MAJ)

29

2

6

2

0

0

3

0

10

0

0

.207

.207

.276

'11

Louisville (AAA)

358

46

106

24

4

12

56

46

60

6

5

.296

.374

.486

'11

Cincinnati (MAJ)

88

9

29

4

0

5

15

10

21

0

0

.330

.398

.545

Major League Totals

117

11

35

6

0

5

18

10

31

0

0

.299

.354

.479

Minor League Totals

1179

149

345

85

6

36

179

148

203

20

9

.293

.370

.466

4.

Yasmani Grandal, C

Born: Nov 08, 1988

B-T: B-R

Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 205

Drafted: Miami, 2010 (1st round). Signed by: Tony Arias

Background: Heading into 2007, Grandal was rated the nation's top high school catching prospect, though Devin Mesoraco eventually moved ahead of him on most draft boards. Signed to a $3.2 million big league contract as the 12th overall pick in 2010, he zoomed from high Class A Bakersfield to Triple-A in his first full pro season.

Scouting Report: There are a lot of similarities between Grandal and Mesoraco. Both project as catchers who will provide above-average offense and solid defense. Mesoraco is a better athlete and has a tick more power, but Grandal projects to hit for a higher average and has the advantage of being a switch-hitter. He has a balanced approach, controls the strike zone and uses the entire field. Though Grandal racked up 19 passed balls in 90 games in 2011, the Reds still think he'll be an average receiver. He has an average arm and threw out 34 percent of basestealers. He has well below-average speed.

The Future: Grandal still has work to do on his receiving and could use a full year in Triple-A. By then Mesoraco may be fully entrenched in Cincinnati, and backup Ryan Hanigan is signed through 2013, which may lead to a trade.

Year

Team

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

'10

Reds (R)

28

4

8

1

0

0

1

4

4

0

1

.286

.394

.321

'11

Bakersfield (HiA)

206

47

61

14

0

10

40

41

57

0

0

.296

.410

.510

'11

Carolina (AA)

156

20

47

15

0

4

26

13

39

0

1

.301

.360

.474

'11

Louisville (AAA)

12

2

6

2

0

0

2

5

1

0

0

.500

.667

.667

Minor League Totals

402

73

122

32

0

14

69

63

101

0

2

.303

.401

.488

5.

Zack Cozart, SS

Born: Aug 12, 1985

B-T: R-R

Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 195

Drafted: Mississippi, 2007 (2nd round). Signed by: Jerry Flowers

Background: When the Reds made Cozart a second-round pick in 2007, many scouts thought his pull-heavy approach wouldn't translate to wood bats. The Reds always believed he had potential at the plate, and he put up the best offensive numbers of his career at Triple-A in 2011, then hit well in two weeks in Cincinnati before injuring his left elbow while applying a tag. He had to have Tommy John surgery, but should be ready to go by spring training because it was his non-throwing elbow.

Scouting Report: Cozart has solid tools across the board. He's an average hitter with average power who sprays line drives all over the field, and he could fit in the No. 2 spot in the lineup if he drew more walks. He has average speed with the instincts to pick his spots to steal bases. Cozart doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but it's strong enough to make all the plays at shortstop. He also has soft hands and a tick above-average range.

The Future: Cozart may be the safest bet in the system, as he would have spent the second half of 2011 as the Reds' starting shortstop if not for his elbow injury. Scouts differ on whether he's a first-division regular, but he should get the job done defensively while producing more-than-adequate offense for his position.

Year

Team

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

'07

Dayton (LoA)

184

28

44

7

2

2

18

11

36

3

1

.239

.288

.332

'08

Dayton (LoA)

418

57

117

20

6

14

49

24

77

3

3

.280

.330

.457

'09

Carolina (AA)

462

72

121

29

2

10

59

63

87

10

2

.262

.360

.398

'10

Louisville (AAA)

553

91

141

30

4

17

67

40

107

30

4

.255

.310

.416

'11

Louisville (AAA)

323

57

100

26

2

7

32

23

51

9

2

.310

.357

.467

'11

Cincinnati (MAJ)

37

6

12

0

0

2

3

0

6

0

0

.324

.324

.486

Major League Totals

37

6

12

0

0

2

3

0

6

0

0

.324

.324

.486

Minor League Totals

1940

305

523

112

16

50

225

161

358

55

12

.270

.332

.421

6.

Daniel Corcino, RHP

Born: Aug 26, 1990

B-T: R-R

Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 165

Signed:Dominican Republic '08 Signed by:Richard Jimenez.

Background: The Reds announced they were making a big push into the international market in 2008 by signing Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran to $4.5 million in bonuses. But it's Corcino who has proven to be the best Latin American they signed that year, a steal at $25,000.

Scouting Report: Corcino elicits frequent comparisons to Johnny Cueto for his stature, appearance, delivery and stuff. WIth a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96, he throws harder than Cueto did at the same point in his career. Corcino doesn't generate much downward plane with his fastball, because he lacks height and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. He has tightened his slider, making it an average pitch, and his 84-85 mph changeup is just as effective. He has a very quick arm and throws strikes, but his delivery involves some effort as he spins off the mound after bringing his arm across his body.

The Future: Some scouts believe Corcino's stuff and feel for pitching will allow him to become a No. 3 starter, while others point to his small stature and his effort-filled delivery and envision him as a back-of-the-rotation option or set-up man. Cueto has become a frontline starter, though he has a better slider. Corcino will make the jump to high Class A in 2012.

Year

Team

W

L

ERA

G

GS

SV

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

AVG

'08

Reds (R)

6

2

5.29

23

0

0

34

37

28

20

2

14

26

.266

'09

Reds (R)

0

1

0.00

2

0

0

3

5

2

0

0

1

2

.385

'09

Billings (R)

1

4

4.91

20

0

3

26

23

16

14

2

15

30

.230

'10

Billings (R)

1

3

3.40

9

9

0

40

38

18

15

2

17

31

.242

'10

Dayton (LoA)

1

1

4.31

6

6

0

31

31

16

15

1

15

29

.248

'11

Dayton (LoA)

11

7

3.42

26

26

0

139

128

61

53

10

34

156

.234

Minor League Totals

20

18

3.86

86

41

3

273

262

262

117

17

96

274

.242

7.

Robert Stephenson, RHP

Born: Dec 28, 1986

B-T: -

Ht.: 0-0 Wt.:

Signed:HS—Martinez, Calif., 2011 (1st round). Signed by: Rich Bordi.

Background: It didn't take long for Stephenson to make his pitch for a spot in the first round of the 2011 draft. He threw back-to-back no-hitters in his first two starts of the high school season, striking out 20 in the second game. After the Reds selected him 27th overall, the Washington recruit waited until the Aug. 15 signing deadline, like many of his fellow first-round picks, before agreeing to a $2 million bonus.

Scouting Report: Thanks to his California pedigree, Stephenson is relatively polished for a high school righthander. His fastball made him a first-round pick, as he sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97 mph. His clean delivery allows him to command his fastball and maintain his velocity. He shows the ability to spin a curveball and an understanding of how to throw a changeup, but neither is a consistently effective pitch yet. He also threw a splitter in high school, but Cincinnati has taken it away because of concerns it could lead to elbow problems.

The Future: Because he's advanced for his age, Stephenson has a chance to make his pro debut at low Class A Dayton. If he starts the year in extended spring training and reports to Rookie-level Billings in June, he'd still be on a normal pace for a high school draftee. He has the upside of a frontline starter but will need time to develop.

Year

Team

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

Did Not Play

8.

Didi Gregorius, SS

Born: Feb 18, 1990

B-T: L-R

Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 175

Signed: Curacao '07. Signed by:Jim Stoeckel.

Background: Signed for $50,000 out of Curacao in 2007, Gregorius looks like quite a bargain. He reached Double-A in 2011, then started at shortstop for the Dutch national team that won the World Cup in Panama. His father Didi and brother Johnny played professionally in Holland and Curacao.

Scouting Report: Gregorius is a quality athlete whose best attribute is his arm, which rates a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale thanks to its strength and accuracy. He's a plus defender with good range and a quick first step. His hands are his biggest drawback defensively and contributed to his 21 errors in 80 games in 2011. Being a lefthanded-hitting shortstop is another positive in Gregorius' favor, though he has struggled against lefties throughout his career. His combination of solid bat control, good pitch recognition and plus speed lead some scouts to project him as an above-average hitter. He has below-average power and has yet to show a knack for stealing bases.

The Future: Because of his solid makeup, the Reds have been comfortable with aggressively promoting Gregorius. He could begin 2011 in Triple-A at age 22, though it's more likely he'll start off at Cincinnati's new Double-A Pensacola affiliate. He has a higher ceiling but more risk than Zack Cozart, whom he'll eventually battle for a big league job.

Background: The star of the 1998 Little League World Series championship team from Toms River, N.J., Frazier followed his brothers Charles and Jeff into pro ball. Signed for $875,000 as the 34th overall pick in 2007, he has spent most of the past two seasons in Triple-A because of the presence of Scott Rolen in Cincinnati. Frazier's best position is third base, but the Reds have tried him all over the infield and outfield in an attempt to find a spot for his bat.

Scouting Report: Frazier's most attractive tool is his plus power to all fields. He may never hit for a high average, though, because he has a pronounced arm bar in his swing and is too aggressive at the plate. He has a tick below-average speed but runs the bases well. While Frazier's feel for the game means he can play almost anywhere on the field—he played five different positions in 41 big league games—he profiles best at third base. His actions fit better at the hot corner than in the middle infield, and he has an average, accurate arm.

The Future: After logging nearly 2,000 minor league at-bats, he's more than ready for the majors. With Rolen still under contract, Frazier still doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, so for now he'll be a corner utilityman.

Background: Rod Boxberger was the College World Series MVP and a first-round pick in 1978, and his son nearly matched his draft status 21 years later. Signed for $857,000 as the 43rd overall pick in 2009, Brad fell apart after a midseason promotion and move to the bullpen in 2010. Once he stopped overthrowing in an attempt to rush to the big leagues, he progressed to Triple-A in 2011.

Scouting Report: Boxberger has learned that when he throws with less effort, his stuff is crisper and he can find the strike zone more consistently. It also helps him maintain his release point, which he lost in 2010. Boxberger's success depends mostly on a 92-95 mph fastball that has sharp cutting action. His average slider is effective when he throws it for strikes. He also throws a fringy changeup but doesn't need it much in his relief role. He also threw a spike curveball as a starter, but he has junked it since moving to the bullpen.

The Future: Boxberger's struggled with walks in Triple-A and has been an issue during his two years in pro ball. If he can throw strikes like he did in the Arizona Fall League, he has a good chance to earn a big league bullpen job in spring training. He profiles as a set-up man who could close in the right situation.