International Futures Help System

Incorporating Proximate Drivers

Overview

Although the distal driver approach serves us well in forecasting health, thinking about intervention and leverage points in order to achieve alternate health futures necessarily involves the inclusion of proximate health drivers into the model. Therefore we need to have an approach that can layer specific risk analysis onto the underlying distal driver specifications. We need to discuss our general approach to doing that, which uses population attributable fraction or PAF formulations, and we need to provide equations of the models used to forecast proximate drivers in IFs and to build the relative risk estimates we used in the model.[1]