"We are now in the later, or middle, stage of the cycle," so surprises are less likely, said Christopher Low, chief economist of FTN Financial, who is the chairman this year of the ABA's economic advisory committee, at a briefing for reporters on the outlook.

There is "remarkable agreement" among the economists about the forecast, said Low.

The recovery is now six years old and "things have played out mostly as expected," Low added.

Economic growth over the next 18 months is expected to pick up to a 3% rate, inflation is expected to move higher towards the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target, and the central bank won't get an itchy trigger finger, the ABA panel said.

Eleven out of the 14 bank economists who participated in the survey agree: the first hike in short-term interest rates will come in the second half of 2015.

Only two economists think the Fed might be forced to move before the summer of 2015 and only one thinks the central bank will wait until 2016.

Lending should increase as banks now have a "better sense" of the regulatory environment, Lowe said.

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