China, India

September 18, 2009

Two seemingly unrelated events underscore the inconsistency that marks India's strategy to deal with China. One relates to the upcoming visit of the Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian state bordering Tibet which China would love to incorporate into its territory. And the other is a reported decision to shelve a proposal for an Indian airbase in Mongolia.

New Delhi, which has more often than not treated the Dalai Lama as an appendage from the 1950s and 1960s, seems to have rediscovered some value in him as a subtle ploy against Beijing. In saying that "Arunachal Pradesh is a part of India and the Dalai Lama is free to go anywhere in India," Foreign Minister S M Krishna was a clear signal to China that India would not like to be pushed around over what it considers to be a settled issue of territorial control in Arunachal Pradesh. The sheer symbolism of the Dalai Lama visiting Tawang, a border town, to inaugurate a hospital is powerful and helps reinforce India's control over the region. The strategy seems to be to tell Beijing that not only is New Delhi self-assured in asserting its control over the region, it is equally comfortable in allowing someone whom China considers its nemesis to visit there.

Contrast this with the reported decision to no longer seek an airbase in Mongolia so as not to exacerbate tensions with China. The proposed airbase would have been an effective counter to China's strategy of encirclement around India by helping build ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

One understands that geo-strategy is all about give and take but India betrays diffidence while dealing with China. There is that unspoken reluctance to go the full distance the way China does. In the midst of reported tensions along the border, this may be a good time to reevaluate China policy. In the odd chance that India is deliberately pursuing a seemingly inconsistent policy to confuse China, I can only say wow!

September 15, 2009

China's new Consul-General in Mumbai Wang Donghna says India and China are not just neighbors, but are also brothers. That is indeed a noble thought. The only problem is that India still winces at what happened in 1962, the last time the two neighbors defined their relations in fraternal terms. The ridiculously naïve sloganeering of "Hindi-Chini bhai bhai" nearly five decades ago was followed by a war between China and India, with the latter suffering utter humiliation.

I am sure Wang speaks of fraternal ties with great sincerity and does indeed view the new bilateral equation in those sanguine terms. However, if history is any guide the two are better off pursuing a less familial and more pragmatic relationship. Countries are not siblings. They are merely randomly defined pieces of geography incorporating conflicting cultures which often push against each other for primacy.

Being a senior diplomat Wang must be aware that invocation of brotherly ties does not have an altogether happy resonance within India's foreign policy establishment. Individuals within that establishment may no longer be governed by the memories of 1962 but institutional memory is much longer and more enduring. It may not be the best way to project bilateral ties.