Nov. 3: Great day in the morning or great day of mourning

If the polls are accurate and if the people who make a living predicting political outcomes are correct, national Democrats will awake on the morning on Nov. 3 and gaze at a pile of smoking rubble that was once their party.

They will have lost control of the House of Representatives and their margin in the Senate will have been shaved to as few as two seats.

As news accounts repeatedly depicted Democrats as bracing for the worst mid term result in many years, party strategists suggested its Congressional candidates position themselves as outsiders who understand that government hasn’t adequately addressed the ills --- particularly the economic ones --- which afflict the country.

They didn’t overtly recommend that candidates run against their own party and President, but the clear message was to avoid fully running too closely with them, either.

The strategy has shifted, however, as insurgents, once given little chance of success, achieved a string of stunning victories, defeating establishment-backed candidates in Republican primary contests.

The new Democratic message is one of portraying Republican candidates as extreme, fringe, radical captives of the political phenomenon known as the Tea Party.

Initially dismissed and underestimated as a loose knit band of malcontents and right wing ideologues, the Tea Party has gained significant momentum and become a national movement. It is as scornful of the media as segments of the media are scornful of it.

Democrats have seized upon some of the more outlandish public comments by candidates associated with the Tea Party or who won contested primaries with its support to convince voters their ideas are dangerous and represent a narrow, destructive political philosophy.

The problem for the Democrats, though, is that --- at this stage at least --- the strategy has had minimal impact.

Polls and predictions by academics and long time operatives of both parties continue to foretell significant Republican gains, with some forecasting that as many as 50 seats could change hands. Republican control of the House is virtually assured, they contend, while the current Democratic margin in the Senate will be considerably narrowed, but likely to remain in the majority.

The widespread discontent and restiveness that helped Barack Obama achieve victory nearly two years ago has escalated into a boiling anger as the distressed economy lingers, unemployment continues to hover near 10 per cent, home foreclosures have become a tidal wave, and the national debt has been driven to an unprecedented level.

The perception is that little has improved while government spending has soared and economic recovery remains elusive.

In this environment, the party in power is held accountable.

The President has pleaded for understanding and patience, but the American people don’t seem inclined to give him either one. With some 20 months in office, the Administration can no longer blame its predecessor and it hasn’t yet been able to deliver on the “hope and change” promise that was the centerpiece of the Obama campaign.

Even its signature achievement --- the overhaul of the nation’s health care system --- has become so enmeshed in controversy and sharply conflicting interpretations of its impact that some 60 per cent of Americans now think it was a bad idea.

The Tea Party message of less spending, lower taxes and less intrusive government has resonance. To the surprise of most and the chagrin of many, the Party has attained traction, drawing strength from disaffected voters frightened about their futures and concerned about the direction the country is following.

If little changes in poll results, it is likely campaigns will turn increasingly harsh and outright ugly. Discussion of issues will be perfunctory at best, the focus will be on personal flaws and shortcomings, and the emphasis on dark warnings about placing in positions of power those who hold dangerous and extreme views.

To his credit, President Obama has placed himself on the front lines of his party’s effort to retain control of the Congress, arguing that while his policies have not yet fully taken hold, the nation will be better off when they do. The problems the country faces did not develop overnight and they will not be solved overnight, he has said repeatedly, charging that the Republican history is one of obstructionism and that progress can only occur if Democrats remain in the majority.

It’s a hard sell to convince deeply unhappy people that the party in power --- the presumed source of the unhappiness --- should be given the opportunity to continue in power. Instant gratification is always present in politics and is always difficult to deal with. This year, though, it seems more pronounced.

There can be no doubt that in 2010 change is in the air, just as it was in 2008. How deeply the desire for it runs remains to be seen.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Carl Golden is a senior contributing analyst with the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton College.