Thursday, May 21, 2009

Equations of the Match tonight

Now that RCB has a very good chance of getting into the semi finals, with the King XI Punjab and Rajasthan Royals losing last night, its worth to look at the mathematics of the whole thing. At the moment, RCB, KXIP and Deccan are all tied at 14 points. If RCB wins it, it is more or less certain that RCB and Deccan go through since Deccan has a significantly higher Net Run Rate than KXIP. But if RCB loses the match, then the NRR equations come into play. RCB is ahead of KXIP at the moment, but lets see what it would take for RCB to get through:

Deccan Chargers Bat first

Deccan Scores

RCB need to score

180

113

150

83

120

53

100

32

RCB Bat first

RCB Scores

Overs in which Deccan gets it

180

8.4 or less

150

11.1 or less

120

11.2 or less

100

10.5 or less

50

10.4 or less

Conclusion: I think it is going to be very hard to keep out RCB from the semi finals here on. Go Kumble Go!!

I am not saying RCB will lose the match, but as they say "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."

ps: All the equations were solved by taking wolfram alpha out for a ride.

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Note on Tech Log

All tech posts have now moved to http://tech.shreeni.info or you may subscribe to its RSS feed.
In due course, I shall be moving it out completely, so if you follow my tech posts, please shift to following that blog.