NFL picks – week 14

5-0. It finally happened. I would first like to thank the academy….Ok, that’s done with, on to week 14. 39-25-1 now on the season, never had a week worse than 2-3 so I believe that I’m actually doing a good job with these picks this season. However, 1 stretch of 1-9 like I had in college ball and things don’t look too good. I will also say that going into the last 2 weeks I have felt GREAT about my picks. Looking at the games this week I honestly don’t know what to think. But I’m red hot right now, so let’s see if I can keep riding this wave.

Atlanta at Carolina

Carolina +3.5

It’s not like I have all of a sudden jumped on the Cam Newton bandwagon and believe that he will be a franchise player. He could obviously because of his talent, but I am just giving him credit right now the kid is playing better. The Panthers as a team are playing better and actually the defense has played better since Jon Beason went down for the year and Luke Kuechly moved to MLB. The Falcons have a cushy lead both in the division and for home field advantage. Couple that with it being a divisonal game, which was much of the reason for me loving the Panthers getting points the last time these two met, and I just think that 3.5 is a bit too much.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Tennessee +6.5

Indy will win this game, but this is a dangerous matchup for them. Chris Johnson will be able to run the ball against this defense. Another thing to watch for is a big game from Jake Locker. Prior to the 2010 college football season it was a slam dunk that Locker would have a tremendous season and go on to be the number 1 pick in the 2011 NFL draft. Well he had a bad year, and that was the year that Andrew Luck really took over as “the guy” in what was then known as the PAC 10. I expect Locker will be up for this game. Add to that it is a divisonal game just like the Falcons and Panthers, and taking the points here is just the smart bet.

Miami at San Francisco

San Francisco -10

I know it’s a big number but I love it in every way. The Niners are coming off a bad loss. It’s long travel for the Dolphins. I love Ryan Tannehill but it’s a rookie QB against what I believe is the best defense in football. Colin Kaepernick at home is going to be better than Colin Kaepernick on the road. If by some chance Alex Smith starts he will be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. The Dolphins defense is ok, but it’s nothing special that the Niners can’t handle. I believe this could be a blow out for the Niners.

New Orleans at NY Giants

New Orleans +5

I understand the logic here of the Giants being ticked after a Monday night loss to the Redskins and the Saints coming off a potential back breaking loss to the Falcons. But the way I see it is you never know what you will get from the Giants week to week, but you know that Drew Brees isn’t letting the Saints go down without a fight. The Saints will have had 10 days off, and the Giants are on a short week. 5 points is just too many to give to the Saints in this game. I believe it will be a great game, I believe the Giants will win it, but it will be a tight game.

Houston at New England

Houston +3.5

The Texans have played some big road games this season and looked great in playing them. The one that I look at more than any was the win in Chicago. That was against an elite team, prime time game, outdoors, bad weather, and they came out of it with the W. Getting 3.5 in this game is a great bet. I believe the Texans can win this game outright. It’s a bigger game for the Texans than it is for the Pats. The Texans have something to prove in this one. Should be a great game, pretty evenly matched teams here, but the Texans getting points is a nice bet here.