All posts tagged OBR

The U.K.’s official forecasting body doesn’t expect a recession, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne declared in his autumn statement Tuesday.

That’s true. But it came very, very close.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in its twice-yearly forecast said output will contract in the fourth quarter by 0.1%. The economy will then rebound by a staggering 0.1% in the first quarter, and grow by another 0.1% in the second quarter, it said.

As a recession, technically, is described by two straight quarters of falling output, the forecast suggests we’re not facing one. But clearly it wouldn’t take much for that “growth” forecast to turn into a longer contraction.