SpaceX launch poll 2013-03-01

Will the SpaceX CRS-2 mission to the ISS be successful?Poll ended at Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:47 pm

Launch is delayed beyond March 3rd.

20%

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99 seconds after lift-off, all nine first stage engines explode in flight. Backup antigravity drive kicks in smoothly and delivers Dragon to the station. SpaceX promises to investigate "off-nominal sensor readings" while emphasising the mission's success.

0%

[ 0 ]

Second stage shuts down prematurely, then restarts, then shuts down and restarts a few more times, just to show that it can do it. Unfortunately, this causes Dragon to miss the ISS.

0%

[ 0 ]

Dragon is captured successfully, but docking fails as the docking ring doesn't fit. Once back in Hawthorne, a shame-faced Dragon admits that it hasn't been able to stand up to the American economy's developing coal habit, and "apparently put its solar panels into the coal bucket once too many". It's checked into a ritzy rehab clinic in nearby Beverly Hills to shape up for another try.

0%

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Dragon burns up on re-entry. Mishap investigation board puts blame on new "green" heat shield, which is made out of recycled oven mitts.

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[ 0 ]

All on schedule, nominal, and boring. NASA press chief makes heroic attempt at saving the press conference, but can't stop it from being aborted halfway through due to everyone present having fallen asleep.

Okay everyone, here we go again. On March 1st, SpaceX is scheduled to launch another Dragon to the ISS on the Falcon 9 carrier rocket. Will they succeed?

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Fun fact that I've only realized a few minutes ago:If this launch (and berthing) is successful, then SpaceX will have done as many ISS resupply flights in just one year, as ESA's ATV accomplished in four years!

True, but ATV carries more than twice as much cargo as Dragon. That thing is big. On the other hand, Dragon has return capability, which ATV doesn't, so we can already say that it's returned more cargo than ATV ever has...

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Thruster pods one through four are now operating nominally. Preparing to raise orbit. All systems green.

To recap for those of us who couldn't follow the story: it seems that for whatever reasons only one out of four thruster pods were initially pressurized. Allegedly a software issue that prevented valve(s) to open. This in turn put the spacship into passive abort mode, in which it didn't proceed with usual actions (most noticeably deploying solar panels). Overriding commands were sent to Dragon before first orbit finished allowing for activation of one additional thruster pod and deployment of panels. NASA procedures however demand three thruster pods to be functional for approach to ISS, so any maneouvers were postponed until this state could be achieved. This seem to just have happened.

On a side note: Dragon was scheduled to arrive to ISS within 18h from launch - a new record for US launched ship. Unfortunately the record will be unbeaten on this flight.

SpaceX seem to be balancing on the edge of failure an awful lot. On the other hand, so far they've managed to stay on the right side pretty well. Conclusion: they've perfected not spending too much on unnecessary reliability?

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus

Well, they managed to shake loose the stuck valves and fly to the station, where they are now safely berthed. Pretty awesome. Incidentally, I put some numbers together recently and it seems that SpaceX can fail 80% of their CRS missions and still match Orbital's Antares/Cygnus package on price/kg to the ISS. Quite impressive...

_________________Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhereWhat is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphereMachinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus