IMD forecasts 97% normal monsoon for 2018

Monsoon rains, the lifeblood of the country's $2 trillion economy, are expected to be 97 percent of a long-term average, K.J. Ramesh, director general of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a news conference. The IMD predicted 97 per cent chance of near-normal showers. India receives 89 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, which is nearly 75 per cent of its annual rainfall.

The date of onset of monsoon will be announced in the middle of May.

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A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson. Forecast on distribution of rainfall and prediction on monthly rains for July, August and September will be made by the IMD in early June.

The IMD, which released its initial forecast for the four-month monsoon season, also said preliminary indications showed this year's rains would evenly distributed.

According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2018 is likely to be normal at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

The average rainfall over the past 50 years, or the long-period average (LPA), is 89cm.

In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 per cent, in central India 106 per cent, in southern peninsula 92 per cent and in northeast India 89 per cent.

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.