To give a sense of Mr. Romney’s challenge: he could win Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia — all carried by Mr. Obama in 2008 — and still fall short without Ohio and its 18 electoral votes.

This is what happens when the bulk of your support is clustered in Southern states and you pursue a “get out the white vote” strategy to victory. It may still work. He’s got the money, obviously. But if I were a Republican right now, doubt would be infecting my faith.