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US Government Debt
in Recent Decades

Government debt has been getting bigger.

Debt Steadily Increasing

Government debt in the United States has steadily increased
from $2 trillion in the mid 1980s to over $19 trillion today. But as a percent of
GDP it has grown from 55 percent to over 100 percent of GDP today.

Government debt, including gross federal, state, and local, reached $3 trillion in 1987, and then breached
$4 trillion in the recession year of 1990. In the 1990s debt reached $5 trillion in 1992,
and $7 trillion at the peak of the business cycle in 2000. Debt breached $10 trillion in
2006 and $15 trillion in 2010. Gross debt, including all levels of government, exceeded
$20 trillion in 2014 and is expected to break $25 trillion in 2019.

Viewed as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) government debt shows a different aspect. At 55 percent of GDP in 1985, debt increased as a percent of GDP until
the mid 1990s when it peaked at 78.7 percent of GDP in 1995. Then a steady decline
in debt as a percent of GDP set in for the rest of the 1990s, declining to 68.8 percent
of GDP in 2000. But debt resumed a climb in the 2000s reaching 78 percent of GDP at the
peak of the business cycle in 2007.

In the Crash of 2008 government debt increased sharply to bail out the banks and to
provide “stimulus” to the economy. Debt reached 101 percent of GDP in 2009, and is estimated
at 122 percent GDP in 2015.
But debt is expected to decline slightly as a percent of GDP through the end of the 2010s.

Recent Debt by Government Level

Federal debt stood at 42 percent of GDP in 1985. State government
debt was 4.9 percent of GDP and local debt was 8.1 percent of GDP.
By the mid 1990s federal debt had increased to 64 percent of GDP. State debt
had increased to 5.6 percent of GDP and local debt had increased to 9.1 percent of GDP.

By 2000 federal debt had decreased to 55 percent of GDP, state debt
was essentially level at 5.3 percent of GDP and local debt declined modestly to 8.8 percent of GDP. In the 2000s debt started to climb again, with federal debt reaching 62 percent of GDP
by 2007. State debt was 6.5 percent of GDP and local debt was 10.2 percent of GDP in 2007.

Chart Key: - Federal debt - Local debt - State debt

Then came the Crash of 2008. By 2011 federal debt had exploded to 95 percent of GDP,
state debt stood at 7.3 percent of GDP and local debt increased modestly to
11.5 percent of GDP.

In 2015, federal debt stands at 100.5 percent of GDP, state
debt at 6.4 percent of GDP, and local debt at 10.1 percent of GDP.

Gross vs. Net Debt

The difference between gross and net is the amount of debt held
by the federal government

As reported by the federal government in Historical Table 7.1 of the federal budget, the gross debt
of the general government is composed of three items: debt held by the Federal Reserve System
and therefore monetized, debt owed to government agencies (e.g., Social Security), and debt held by the public, including foreign governments.

In 1990, the Federal Reserve System held debt amounting to 3.9 percent of GDP. Federal debt
held by the federal government amounted to 13.3 percent of GDP and debt held by the public
amounted to 36.4 percent of GDP.

Chart Key: - Debt held by public - Debt held by federal gov. - Debt held by Federal Reserve

Federal debt monetized by the Federal Reserve System increased to over 5 percent of GDP in 1998 and
slowly increased, reaching 5.7 percent of GDP before declining in 2008 to 3.4 percent of GDP.
In 2009, after the Crash of 2008, the debt held by the Federal Reserve System had increased back to 5.5 percent, and
then, following a policy of “quantitative easing” and “zero interest rates,” increased to 14.1 percent of GDP in 2014. It declined to 13.4 percent GDP by 2016.

Federal debt held by the government, principally IOUs to the Social Security system, has climbed
steadily, 15 percent of GDP in 1992, and 20 percent in 1999.
Debt held by the government exceeded 25 percent of GDP in 2005 and 30 percent of GDP in 2009.
Debt held by the government is expected to decline very slightly in the future as a percent of GDP.

Federal debt held by the public (excluding the Federal Reserve System) amounted to 36.4 percent of GDP in 1990. It reached 41 percent of GDP in 1992 and peaked at 42.5 percent of GDP in 1993.
Debt held by the public declined to 28.2 percent of GDP by 2000 before settling at about 29
percent of GDP till 2007. with the Crash of 2008 debt held by the public started increasing
sharply, reaching 59.7 percent of GDP by 2012, and is budgeted to exceed 64 percent GDP in 2017.

Recent Interest Payments

The burden of interest rates has declined in recent decades. Running at a little under
4 percent of GDP in the mid 1980s, the cost of interest payments began an historic decline
that extended throughout the boom of the late 1990s and the recession of 2000-01. The cost
of interest payments increased in the recovery of the mid 2000s, then declined below 2
percent of GDP after the Crash of 2008.

Interest payments as a percent of GDP are expected
to increase in the future, as the Federal Reserve unwinds its
current “quantitative easing” and “zero interest rate policy.”

Data Source

On December 7, 2018 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2018. On January 7, 2019 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows: