Friday, June 20, 2014

The end of El Exilio?

El exilio is not going away, either as a state of mind or as a
voting bloc never forgets the pain, loss, and grievances of 1959 and its
aftermath.

But as the Cuban-American
community is increasingly populated by younger generations and immigrants who
departed Cuba after the 1970’s, it is no longer defined solely by the exile
experience. It is turning instead into an immigrant community with diverse
outlooks and political preferences.

To see that this is the case, one
need only to observe the flights going to Cuba and to talk to the Cuban
Americans on them. They visit and support their families, have their kids stay
with their aunt in Cuba for the summer, and think of buying a family home in
Cuba in a relative’s name. For them, getting on the plane is not a political
act.

Elites are changing too, increasingly
looking at Cuba and figuring out ways they can engage in a positive way. The Fanjuls
are interested in investing. And Facundo Bacardi has given an interview to Cigar Aficionado, a magazine that
offends many in the community because it treats Cuba as a luxury tourism
destination. Bacardi reveals that his family is divided about the embargo
question. In contrast to the hard-liners’ typical dismissal of Cuba’s changes
as “cosmetic,” he has this
view: “The society is slowly
opening up a bit, and there are reforms. So long as the reforms continue, the
people who benefit the most are the Cuban people. Every country does things at
its own pace, and Cuba is no different. It’s doing things at its own pace. I
can understand that the Cuban government doesn’t want to run the risk of a
revolution, so they’re implementing these changes in piecemeal fashion over a
period of time. The question is, will Raúl go all the way, or will he not?”

And now, there’s a new poll from Florida
International University’s Cuban Research Institute, which has been surveying
Cuban American attitudes since 1991.

For the first time, a majority of Cuban Americans, 52 percent, wants to
end the embargo. By contrast, in the five polls conducted during the
1990's, support for the embargo averaged 85 percent.

The poll shows that support for hard-line policies is concentrated in the
over-65 age bracket, which means that this is a trend, not a fluke.

Examples:

Support for lifting the embargo is 52 percent overall: 62 percent of those
18-29, 55 percent age 30-44, 55 percent age 45-64, and 40 percent age 65 and
higher.

Support for re-establishing diplomatic relations is 68 percent overall: 88
percent of those 18-29, 78 percent age 30-44, 68 percent age 45-64, and 41 percent
age 65 and higher.

It’s no wonder that politicians –
so far, only Democrats – are taking notice. Charlie Crist and Hillary Clinton
are not simply questioning the policy but opposing the embargo head-on; they
are, respectively, the first significant Florida statewide candidate and the
first (presumptive) major Presidential candidate to do so. The electoral
penalty once attached to that position no longer exists.

And President Obama, the first
candidate to really figure out the new Miami-Dade math, continues to think about it.