The comments follow
Seven West Media
’s surprise announcement on Tuesday that group earnings will fall 15 per cent to 16 per cent for the 2012 financial year.

“There’s a chance that this half might be flat, if not slightly negative," Seven’s chief sales and digital officer, Kurt Burnette, said yesterday about the general metropolitan TV ad ­market.

He said the TV ad market was “incredibly short". “It does make forecasting very difficult."

The metropolitan free-to-air TV ad market fell 5 per cent year on year in the nine months to March, according to media buying agency data compiled by Standard Media Index. The regional TV ad market, by contrast, was virtually flat.

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Ten Network signalled early this year that trading conditions were still tough when its TV division posted an 11 per cent revenue decline in the six months to February.

But Mr Morrison said the market was not experiencing the volatility seen in January and February. He added that April had been soft due to the non-ratings season over Easter.

“Things seemed to have flattened out now that the year has progressed."

At least two of the commercial networks expect the TV ad market to pick up in the December half. Seven’s Mr Burnette expects growth in the low single digits over the 2012 calendar year. Nine’s Mr Wiltshire forecasts 3 per cent growth in the December half, leading to a flat or slightly positive market over the year.

Industry players say the Olympic Games in London in late July and early August could generate 2 percentage points of the total free-to-air TV ad market over the full year, based on historical experience.

Nine has the free-to-air broadcast rights for the Games.

In addition, Nine is expecting to commercialise its current ratings success with The Voice and The Block in the second half of the year.

Seven West Media’s earnings guidance implies its West Australian Newspapers and Pacific Magazines divisions are doing it tough, amid both cyclical and structural challenges for print publishers.

Newspaper advertising revenue fell 12 per cent year on year in the March quarter while magazine ad revenue fell 13 per cent over the same period, Standard Media Index reports.

The general advertising market slumped less than 1 per cent over the quarter, it said.