Carlington wrote:Madge, I guess all I can say is that it's to the benefit of town to keep both town factions alive as long as possible in order to keep the majority from scum. I hope that's clear to you.

I was coming to that way of thinking myself, too, to be honest. Plus my power gets less effective as the game wears on, so on N4 or N5 the kill will almost certainly be more powerful than my actual power. So I will hold off on the kill, with the view to use it at the end of the game on the Other Team.

That said, there's no difference to me whether the Other Team wins or whether Black wins. They both mean I lose. But Black can stop the game earlier than the Other Team can, so Black should be the priority.

I am OK with lynching matt.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Apparently, though, what I claimed may not have been what I meant. According to mafiawiki, normally rolecop just gets the role name, nothing else. Is that the case? Because I get the entire role as a result - name, power, Ajah, wincon, alignment.

Of course I'm pressing. You are fairly confident that bessie is not scum. FMPOV, that would make your decision on who to vote for pretty simple, yet you have not voted. The only way I think you are town is if you and bessie are both in Siuan's faction, which is why you hesitate to reveal results. But that would make both Sabrar and matt96 scum? With Sabrar voting for matt? Doesn't make sense.

Unless we're missing something about mpolo or dim? But no one has counterclaimed dim....unless dim is scum, and Jude killed themselves? (Bit weird, but hey, I'm confused here.) Or mpolo knew that Jude did not send a letter, and claimed one? With no scum chat?

Sabrar wrote:I don't really understand your first point. So there is something that I would have done both as Townie and as Scum and because of that you find me scummy? Is that really your point?

IIRC, the point I was trying to make is that I don't necessarily see the recruiting groups as scummy / contrary to our win condition, so your view to lynch him stood out to me from that perspective. It makes sense IF the recruiter prevents town from winning, but it also makes sense if the recruiter is like a quasi-mason in group, in which case black ajah would definitely want him dead. So that was mostly an observation that I could see you posting it from either angle.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Possible scum teams:...bessie - matt96. Likely. Jude and matt save bessie from a D1 lynching. Lay low during D2 because of all the Elaida business.

Disagree. Scum cannot be so bad as to have both people save bessie last minute. Too much attention in my opinion.

mpolo wrote:I would not object to our vig killing SirGabriel to reduce the probability that I have to worry about getting rid of a weak leader in the future.

I still don't understand where we decided that these recruits are a bigger threat than black ajah. We're just cleaning house for them as far as I see it, for no real good reason.

matt96 wrote:I suppose the idea was that the Black ajah was intended to try to avoid getting exposed while letting the siuan and elaida's factional conflict weaken town.

Yes, this is exactly what I was thinking.

bessie wrote:But I don't think he's [dimochka] a night kill candidate anyway. He claimed his color and power with no counterclaims. If he's telling the truth, he's vanilla.

Yes, I'm vanilla.

And some reads (not in any particular order)- Madge: I don't think she fully caught up on flavor and realized to claim a different recruiting faction that doesn't exist. So as far as I'm concerned she's in Siuan. From my point of view I definitely don't want the recruiting factions to kill one another because that goes against my current wincon of having a strong leader in place.SirG: similar to madge. really doubt he's lyingMatt: I may be reading into it but a double vote in scum's hands is incredibly strong. I know that his content has been lacking but I don't think black ajah would have that (plus a kill and/or whatever else). With that being said I want to see that post he planned to put together.Sabrar: I mentioned the couple of things that look off to me. Otherwise it's a lot of back and forth arguing with GoP which I didn't find that helpful. So either they're both town, or one is scum trying to waste our time and look active (not that either of them needs help looking active after all that)GoP: Same as above. If I had to pick one of them, I'd have sabrar as the more scummy one, but I may be biased from D1/D2 so I'm reviewing.*sidenote - I do not believe that both gop and sabrar are scum together.Bessie: As I mentioned before, her content improved, and while I don't agree with everything, I actually think that she and I are likely in the same situation. But this is gut feeling and I'll have to come back to this. Mpolo: based on the note situation, he's likely town.Carlington: all we have is a rolecop claim, which could swing either way on the town-scum scale. Not very convincing to be honest (of townieness; I can believe the power)

I'd be most comfortable with a carlington lynch at this point, but i should have more time to review in detail tomorrow before the deadline. If anything here doesn't make sense, ask away.

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

Unfortunately I don't have time to go into detail, and this will probably be my last post for the day, but several places in Sabrar's recent content have been pinging me. So, since I think I can trust Madge not to kill me tonight,

Gopher of Pern wrote:FMPOV, that would make your decision on who to vote for pretty simple, yet you have not voted.

Sure, that leaves me with the choice between a lurker with a fairly towny power whose utility to town increases with time and an active contributor who I'm not really reading as scummy. I'd rather not vote frivolously so late in the game, and Matt has promised content so I'm giving him time, but that's likely where my vote would end up.

Carlington has a certainty about bessie being town, whose justification I didn't find

There is most likely scum on the Diemo wagon. I think the double vote is too strong for a starting scum power. Which would point to moody or Sabrar. I still have doubts about bessie due to the save. Though it might be more a misdirect from Alviarin.

Soft deadline is at 7pm UTC, Tuesday 7th February, just over 1 hour from now. I plan on processing night over the course of 2-3 hours. Players have until 2 hours after night is called to submit or change night actions.

matt96 wrote:Just want to confirm I'm reading this correctly before a larger post tonight. Sabrar, are you voting for me obecause you believe me to be Siuan, not a member of the black ajah?

I'm a bit confused, where do you get this from? I voted for you because I think that you're lurking scum. I thought I was clear about that.

I read this sentence

Sabrar wrote: In that case my guess would be matt96 and probably Carlington, with a small possibility of bessie instead.

as continuing the thought of the immediately preceding sentence where you find the two players who had no opportunity to counter claim as unlikely to be Siuan. This caused me to think that you had been recruited by Elaida's faction, which after clarification, no longer appears to be the case.

Full "town"-scum listEffectively confirmed1 mpolo- Confirmed not scum by recieving a note and Jude's flip2 dimochka- Killed Jude, no factional chat as noted in Jude's flip means that this is not part of a coordinated gambit.3 SirGabriel- Elaida, supported by ahippo, who's flip confirmed him to be Elaida's supporter.Opinion4. Sabrar- I don't think scum!Sabrar would save town!bessie, but also don't see scum!Sabrar helping make the wagon on scum!bessie, leaving him as not scum. 5. bessie- I just don't see where the remaining scum mate would have been during day 1, until I voted, it didn't seem possible that bessie would live, Jude's voting for some one else felt more like intentionally distancing himself from bessie's impending lynch than an actual attempt to save her. I do disagree with the statement about the faction leaders deaths bringing about a scum win, for the reasons that the leaders could end up both dead after the black ajah's elimination and the recruit being faction based rather than linked to a single player suggests that the leader's death isn't the end for their faction, and being able to recruit players into a faction which has already lost makes no sense. 6 Madge- Claims to be part of Siuan's faction, backed up by Sabrar. Plans on using the gifted vig to take out SirGabriel, despite his faction already being behind due to losing a member and a recruitment opportunity. Probably not scum, but not really the most helpful to town in general.7 Carlington- easily confirm-able power, if a bit of a waste due to timing last night, only this low due to others being higher.8 GoP- I'm not seeing too much different from Secret Santa, but this time my win isn't tied to keeping him alive.

For now I'll Double Vote: Madgefor being the lowest on my list who I can put ahead of myself in the votals

I'm not causing a tie here. Sabrar is still a bit questionable in my book and I would prefer his lynch over Madge's, but I don't see matt as scum. So I'm keeping things as they are. Plus deadline now...

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

As the group started to reach a conclusion, with arguments for various different individuals, a massive gust blew the window back open. It was almost as if it was targeting one of the assembled Sisters. The others backed away, their clothing only ruffling slightly. The singled out Sister meanwhile was thrown to the floor, and couldn't get up. Quickly gathering their thoughts, a pair of the Sisters weaved a barrier to block the window. The others looked at the Sister lying prone. She was unconscious. The wind had somehow suffocated her. One of the gathering Delved into her. She wasn't dead, but she'd need tending too very carefully.

Day 3 is now over. Madge has been lynched. Role reveal in the morning.

The Amyrlin sat at the side of Talia’s bed. They had been good friends for so long, even after Siuan had been raised to the Amyrlin Seat, it was saddening to see her in this state. It was all too clear that some way, somehow the wind was connected with how the Sisters had been voting. The temporary suffocation of Talia had not killed her, but she had been so weakened by the affair that only a very light Healing weave could be risked to stabilise her and prevent her slipping away. It would be weeks before she was truly well enough again to rejoin the hunt for the Black Ajah. With Moiraine out of the Tower and Leane too busy with the day-to-day business of running the Tower, there were very few others whom she could now rely on in this quest.

Madge was lynched. She was Talia Yusobe, Aes Sedai of the Blue Ajah and a member of Siuan’s supporters. Role Info:

Spoiler:

Her win condition was to eliminate all threats to Siuan’s leadership (unaligned players are not threats). Each night, her faction could recruit an additional member, if a faction member was not lynched. Her faction did not have any chat abilities.

Each night, she could use the One Power to place wards to protect another player. She could either place a ward that protects against One Power-based abilities, or that protects against other abilities. Her target would become immune to the next use of that type of ability to target them, even if it wasn’t that night. Given time though, others could work around her wards, so she could not successfully target the same player more than once with the same type of ward (if she tried to and the first was successful, her ability would have no effect, though it may have used up the ward if it had not already been broken).

As disheartened as she was inwardly, she couldn’t let this show on the outside. Steeling herself, Siuan got up and made her way to her study, ready to hear the latest report from her Keeper.

Leane was waiting for her, arms full of papers as always. She looked almost as tired, as Siuan herself felt. “What do you have for me this morning, Leane?” she asked the Blue Sister.

“Nothing of note, but as always, plenty of the menial items that need your approval,” Leane replied.

“No information about our little circle, then?”

“I checked round them all this morning, and it seems that they are all quite well. Well, except for poor Talia at least.”

“So, it would seem that the Blacks have not yet retaliated after we found out about Alviarin. That does surprise me, but I am not complaining,” Siuan sighed.

“I wouldn’t be so sure, Mother. I have been speaking with the Sisters, and many of them have been trying to ward themselves in, and others have taken to going around in pairs. Who knows whether any of them accidentally foiled the Black’s plans.”

Siuan grunted. It would seem that the investigation would need to continue.

The remaining Sisters assembled themselves once more in the Library.

It is now Day 4. Deadline is 8pm UTC, Monday, 13th February. With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Just as a reminder, in the event of a tied vote at day end, the following rule applies:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:“If the votals are tied, then the player with the most who reached that total first will be lynched, unless all players have voted and exactly 2 people have been voted for. In that special case, there will be no lynch.”

Here are our options:1. Lynch matt - Best case, we lynch a very powerful scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we know who to lynch tomorrow, which puts us at 3 "town" and 1 scum alive at start of D6 if scum is successful in both nightkills.2. Lynch Sabrar - Best case, we lynch scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we mislynch, scum succeeds in their nightkill, then tomorrow scum has enough votes to force a no lynch and guarantee their eventual victory.3. Lynch someone else - Best case, we lynch scum but get no confirmed townies. Worst case, same as worst case for lynching Sabrar. If for some reason we choose this option and it turns out to be a mislynch and scum succeeds in their nightkill, we should kill Sabrar tomorrow: if Sabrar is scum, then that's our best option, and if matt is scum, by that point we've already lost no matter what we do.4. No lynch - Best case, we get information tonight which tells us which of matt/Sabrar is scum. Worst case, we're down to 5 "town" and 2 scum alive tomorrow with no additional information gained overnight, which at first glance isn't much worse than where we already are.

I still think Sabrar is much more likely than matt to be scum, but we should at least consider options 1 and 4, since lynching town!Sabrar could lose us the game.

SirGabriel wrote:2. Lynch Sabrar - Best case, we lynch scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we mislynch, scum succeeds in their nightkill, then tomorrow scum has enough votes to force a no lynch and guarantee their eventual victory.

Not that I'm advocating this option but your math is wrong. Mislynching me and a succesful NK leaves Town at a 4-2 position, even with matt's double vote you can still lynch him next (unless the lurkers forget to vote).

@SirGabriel: would you mind explaining your vote from yesterday?

dimochka wrote:sabrar - something is off in his focus on people. he does not feel townie to me. I mentioned two instances above.

dimochka wrote:So that was mostly an observation that I could see you posting it from either angle.

Snipped the rest but you should know what I'm referring to here. You mention 2 instances that you don't like. You've clarified that one of them was 'just an observation'. You didn't mention my reply to your second point at all. Would be great if you could make actual accusations instead of vaguely implying things.

@all-who-were-not-voting: why do you think letting a double-voter single-handedly decide the lynch is a good idea?

SirGabriel wrote:2. Lynch Sabrar - Best case, we lynch scum and get a confirmed townie. Worst case, we mislynch, scum succeeds in their nightkill, then tomorrow scum has enough votes to force a no lynch and guarantee their eventual victory.

Not that I'm advocating this option but your math is wrong. Mislynching me and a succesful NK leaves Town at a 4-2 position, even with matt's double vote you can still lynch him next (unless the lurkers forget to vote).

Right, for some reason I saw "8 alive" and interpreted it as "8 remaining votes". Well, that makes it easy: there's no reason to No Lynch, and it seems like a terrible idea at the moment to lynch anyone other than Sabrar and matt, so we just lynch whichever of Sabrar and matt we think is more likely to be scum.

Sabrar wrote:@SirGabriel: would you mind explaining your vote from yesterday?

I thought there was more to it than this, but looking back the only thing that stands out is your defensiveness against GoP. Scum tend to be more likely than town to defend against every little accusation against them. If I was in your shoes as town, I probably would have considered GoP's post as not worthy of a response.

So, we have Sabrar who truthfully supported Madge as a member of Siuan's faction. That likely means that either (1) he has the rolecop he says he has or (2) he is himself in Siuan's faction. This makes is slightly more likely that matt is our scum, I think, though having no sign of a Black recruit, his power seems overbearing for a scum start power. Then again the servants of the Dark Lord have a lot of advantages in the books.

FWIW I tried to see who matt96 could have a connection to but it's extremely hard as he was not doing any analysis. He made his only read-list at a point in time where he felt safe from getting lynched due to the deadline and his double-vote, with basically no scum-reads at all just increasing levels of towniness.From the other direction basically everybody just commented how lurky he is and put him as neutral/not able to read. I saw bessie poking him multiple times, Gopher of Pern once or twice as well, Carlington's only comment regarding him was a reluctance to vote because of townie-power.Due to scum not having chat the poke can easily come from a team-mate but I still feel that bessie's interaction with him was genuine and Gopher of Pern voted for matt96 when he couldn't be sure that matt96 would be online before the deadline, so that leaves Carlington as the most likely third scum.

Looking at the win conditions, Siuan's group and Elaida's group can work together to eliminate Black, but then Siuan and Elaida have to turn on each other to meet their conditions. Black just wants to kill everybody. The unaligned just want to kill Black.

I had hoped to be able to get more out of that (I had been thinking that Elaida could be ignoring Black, but that seems not to be the case), but at least I have that clear now.

Sabrar's analysis is pretty convincing, and has me thinking he is likely non-Black Ajah.

In other news, now that nobody's posting, my Internet has gone almost 48 hours without falling out…

I'm not entirely convinced that SirGabriel is telling the truth for the simple reason that if Sabrar and I are both town, getting the two of us mislynched would result in a scum win, unless something else prevents a night kill, assuming the 3 scum suggested by SirGabriel and speculated by confirmed scum JudeMorgan. If anyone has any additional information, now would probably be a good time to reveal it.

I've been also thinking about this possibility because I thought scum would kill SirGabriel as the only investigative power demonstrated, and moody/Madge definitely would not have protected him with the ward (assuming moody targeted Siuan N1 and Madge knew SirGabriel was in the rival faction by N2). If you're Town then he must be lying but I don't see how Elaida could be Black Ajah. The only explanation I can imagine is if scum recruited him N1 but I don't believe it would fit the flavor. Plus I can think of at least 1 other reason why the NK failed so fmpov the most logical explanation is still that you're scum.

It looks like things have slowed down because we already have a lynch candidate for tonight, and possibly tomorrow night. But we still need to keep talking because if SirGabriel is telling the truth, there is still one remaining Black Ajah in [bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, mpolo, SirGabriel].

Carlington and dimochka at least make a post saying you’re here and tell us whether or not you have anything to share from last night.

I’ll respond to today’s content and anything I missed from yesterday when I get home from work tonight.

matt96 wrote:I'm not entirely convinced that SirGabriel is telling the truth for the simple reason that if Sabrar and I are both town, getting the two of us mislynched would result in a scum win, unless something else prevents a night kill, assuming the 3 scum suggested by SirGabriel and speculated by confirmed scum JudeMorgan. If anyone has any additional information, now would probably be a good time to reveal it.

If I'm scum, then explain this post (from a confirmed Elaida supporter, after I claimed to be Elaida):

ahippo wrote:UnvoteVote: Madge

AACH! I was hoping you'd let me take the fall or at least sew enough confusion to give us the possibility to have a last minute vote change or something. After mpolo unvoted me I thought we had a chance to change the narrative. We don't have a night chat, so we have no way of discussing this beforehand. I mean, it seemed pretty obvious I was gonna get lynched anyway today. When it came up I was part of Elaida's faction, you would have been super implicated. Especially if I went along with your story about you being Siuan, and I doubt that story would have saved me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm a pretty bad mafia player.

I'm about to be hammered, so no reason not to come clean. So SirGabriel, real quick, you didn't mean what you said about there being no Black Ajah, right? Like, I'm still 99% sure they're here, and recruiters too. If anyone reading this is still unaligned, you can decide which of us to chose tomorrow. For today, if we don't lynch Black Ajah, we're in big trouble.

I never got a chance to use my power, assuming I'm about to get lynched, so unfortunately I don't have any information I haven't shared. With my last breath I spit in the Dark One's eye. Good luck friends. Don't let the White Tower fall.

I am pretty sure that SirGabriel is telling the truth. Otherwise, too many other things fall apart. bessie's assumption that there is one more scum is based on that as well. (I was about to ask how she "knew" that there was one more scum, then remembered.)