January 20, 2012

Republicans have advantage in Texas Senate contest

Raleigh, N.C. – The Texas Senate race remains largely unformed with voters barely able to render an opinion on any of the six candidates tested. Republican Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is the only candidate on either side that a majority of voters have an opinion about, with 29% holding a favorable opinion, 31% unfavorable and 40% not sure.

Even Dewhurst doesn’t have a net favorable rating, and neither do any of the other candidates – Republican former Solicitor General Ted Cruz is at 12/19 with 69% unknown, Democrat Sean Hubbard is at 6/18 with 75% unknown, Republican Craig James comes in at 9/24 with 67% unknown, Republican former Mayor of Dallas Tom Leppert clocks in at 17/20 with 63% unknown, and Democratic former State Rep. Paul Sadler’s at 7/18 with 75% unknown.

Looking at head to head matchups, Dewhurst fares the strongest, perhaps not surprisingly due to his higher name recognition. He leads Hubbard 48-31 and leads Sadler 49-31 – nearly identical leads against both potential challengers we tested. The other Republicans beat their Democratic challengers by around 10 points each time, reflecting the party ID in the state and essentially becoming de facto “Generic Republican v. Generic Democrat” contests.

“Republicans are strongly favored to hold onto Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Senate seat,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point it looks like the chances of Barack Obama winning Texas are a lot better than the chances of Democrats picking up a Senate seat there.”

PPP surveyed 700 Texas voters from January 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof David Dewhurst?Favorable........................................................ 29%Unfavorable .................................................... 31%Not sure .......................................................... 40%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican David Dewhurst and DemocratSean Hubbard, who would you vote for?David Dewhurst .............................................. 48%Sean Hubbard................................................. 31%Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican Craig James and Democrat SeanHubbard, who would you vote for?Craig James.................................................... 40%Sean Hubbard................................................. 32%Not sure .......................................................... 27%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican Tom Leppert and Democrat SeanHubbard, who would you vote for?Tom Leppert.................................................... 43%Sean Hubbard................................................. 32%Not sure .......................................................... 26%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican David Dewhurst and DemocratPaul Sadler, who would you vote for?David Dewhurst .............................................. 49%Paul Sadler ..................................................... 31%Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereRepublican Craig James and Democrat PaulSadler, who would you vote for?Craig James.................................................... 42%Paul Sadler ..................................................... 32%Not sure .......................................................... 26%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 51%Barack Obama................................................ 40%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 9%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 56%Man................................................................. 44%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 34%Republican...................................................... 40%Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 26%46 to 65........................................................... 39%Older than 65.................................................. 23%

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