Longtime Congressman Ed Royce will retire at the end of his current term in 2018. This announcement follows his wife accepting a role at the state department as well as a controversial taxation vote last month.

Who will emerge from the GOP ranks to compete in a heavily contested primary is anyone’s guess– but what’s certain is that this mid-term election will be exciting.

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VERN: The distinguished COOK Report has just marked this already competitive seat to “LEANS DEM.” WHO WILL IT BE?

This guy has been representing the RICH, in particular WALL STREET, in Congress since 1993. We already thought he was a pretty vulnerable candidate in this anti-Trump year. Now the incumbent is gone. Will they try to install Young Kim? (First thought.) That would mean her leaving her Supervisor race. Who’d pick up the GOP banner there? So many pieces just went a-flying. Let me see who-all Dems have gone (unsuccessfully) against Royce in recent years…

I predict: Young Kim (Royce’s second fiddle) to go for this seat and Tim Shaw (Huff’s third fiddle) to take Kim’s place in the supe race while Ling Ling (Huff’s second fiddle) continues to try to retrieve Josh’s senate seat.

He’s my bud, but he’s somewhat lazy as even his best friends say, and he doesn’t have the money to run for Congress or the support from the GOP – too much of a maverick!

Greg Diamond

Posted January 9, 2018 at 9:32 AM

The problem for Whitaker is that wherever he goes he’s going to find another establishment Reep there before him, so the question is where can he get into a runoff where he can conceivably pick off Dem votes to win?

The recall is a terrible choice for him because at the end of the day there will be several Reeps wanting to get into that coveted seat, but only one Dem will run. (It will be the first and only time that we’ll show party discipline.) So Dems will likely hold the seat regardless.

Supe is the best choice — it has a runoff if no one gets 50%, as seems likely — but I don’t see him running against Tim Shaw. Maybe I’m just out of the loop there regarding affiliations..

So that leaves Congress, where if we still have 104 Dems in the race two Reeps will make the runoff. (If there are three or more, only one will likely go forward.)

Then again, Ryan just mentioned that you forgot Fullerton, which I thought was a reference to Whittaker. The bigger threat to run and win is that blonde Pringle thrall on Council. (Her name has temporarily been lost to me in the stroke, so please let me enjoy her absence from my universe for a while and don’t mention it here; let’s just refer to her as “The Thrall.”)

Soon I’ll put up an Orange Juice Fondly Remembering Ed Royce post, and I’ll be wanting the help of Ryan, Bushala et al. I’m glad we still have this chickenhawk image of him from ten years ago, when the 1951-born Vietnam-war avoider was a huge supporter of Bush’s unnecessary and illegal wars while, typically, not voting for the services returning veterans needed… (Royce on right; Rohrabacher diminutive in front; also pictured Gary Miller and John Campbell)

Scott Lay lists the following GOP possibilities today (remembering that residency is not a requirement for Congress):

Scott Baugh is a former state assemblyman and former chair of the Orange County Republican Party. He lives in Huntington Beach, but district residency is not required for the U.S. House of Representatives. He’s been raising money in the event Dana Rohrabacher doesn’t run for re-election and had $545,403 on hand as of September 30.

Ling-Ling Chang is a former state assemblywoman from Fullerton in AD55 who is currently a candidate in the recall election of Democratic Senator Josh Newman (D-SD29), which is expected to be on June 5.

Phillip Chen is a first-term assemblyman representing the eastern part of CA39. He came to the Assembly as a board member of the Walnut Valley Unified School District, a former aide to LA supervisor Michael Antonovich, and a reserve sheriff’s deputy.

Bob Huff is a former state assemblymember and senator from Diamond Bar and served as the Senate Republican Leader before being termed-out and was then succeeded by Ling-Ling Chang.

Young Kim is a former state assemblywoman from Fullerton in AD65 and a longtime aide to Congressman Royce. She is currently running for the Fourth District on the Orange County Board of Supervisors in the June 5 election.

Shawn Nelson is a ending his time as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors (Young Kim is running for his seat) and is a former Fullerton City Councilmember.

Janet Nguyen is a state senator from Fountain Valley who has served as a county supervisor and previously served on the Garden Grove City Council. Like Baugh, she lives out of CA39.

Tim Shaw is mayor of La Habra and a former district director for Senator Bob Huff, policy advisor for then-supervisor Janet Nguyen, and policy assistant to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. He is currently government affairs director for the Pacific West Association of Realtors and is an adjunct professor at Rio Hondo College.

Young Kim will likely make the Top Two; the question is whether the Republicans will play it safe or try to take the second slot. My guess (without knowing his current status) is that Bob Huff will run — what else is he going to do with his time? — and take on the Royce machine. Royce could retaliate by running someone against Huff’s guy Tim Shaw for Supe 4, but I don’t think that Huff likely cares enough for a threat against Shaw to make him stay his hand, which means that Royce may not bother. The real questions are whether a candidate like Pringle’s Fullerton Thrall (still not going to use her name!) may run for either the 39th or the 4th; and whether the new generation of leaders in the area (such as Placentia’s Chad Wanke (the “W” is pronounced as a “V”), Brea’s Cecilia Hupp, or (in the 39th, as they live in the 3rd Supe) Yorba Linda’s Peggy Huang or (gulp!) even Kris Murray in Anaheim Hills might decide not to let an earlier generation of outgoing leaders will major posts within their area to their designated heirs. (I’m discounting Art Brown of Buena Park solely because I don’t think he wants to go to DC and I think he’d be satisfied with Joe Kerr in 4th Supe.)

The more I look at this, the worse CA-39 looks for Democrats. We’d likely have been better off running against Royce!

*Dr. D., the realities are always so boring. Good Grief, do we have to recycle the waste from the Titanic at every election cycle in “The OC”? Mom said it best: “Something NEW called STEW!” No rising stars in Community Activism out there? Heck, even DZ is starting to look like a viable candidate….

“He and his wife Mei-Mei have been married for 18 years and currently own Huff Strategies, a consulting firm in Diamond Bar with expertise in transportation, education, water, agriculture and general government.”

So the psychology major from Westmont College is an “expert” in all that stuff? Nooooo. He’s an expert at trying to lobby for people who want influence peddled in their direction.

Yes, it’s true (even if you’re exaggerating): real unemployment in Orange County, as in the rest of the Southland, does remain too high — especially among vulnerable youth and minority communities. I presume that that’s what you’re talking about. Don’t worry, though — Ed Royce will probably land on his feet. In fact, probably with them crushing someone’s throat!

*Hey, Diane invited us to the phone seminar on the implications of Federal Tax changes to CA back in July or August of last year. Inviting comments, which of course she dodgeballed….but….you have to admit…..she was open to HEARING the questions. It was thought provoking and brought about the thought that without our International Trade Agreements being finalized, no one will ever know which Global Companies are going to win, lose or be left out. 2ndly, that by reducing the Mortgage Tax Deduction from $1 million ot $500,000……foreign investment in Commercial and Residential Real Estate is going to fall greatly. The biggies of course were that by dusting our State Tax write offs (reduced to $10,000 a year NOW – big Republican Compromise?) and taking away the personal exemptions…$7200 each…. and …..and
well – of course taking away the business and sub-contractor expenses is really going to kill small business……eh? So, in answer to Chairman Vern – we must say….Diane lets us know….at least. What we do with that info of course is up to all of us.