Saturday, March 31, 2007

Below is the latest in a series of articles by the British author Paul Weston. It concerns the demographic future of Europe and the civilizational conflict that seems likely to occur sooner than one might have thought.

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Is European Civil War Inevitable by 2025?Part Oneby Paul Weston

If I were to tell you that within twenty years Europe could find itself engaged in a civil war so bloody it made WWII look like a bun fight, you might logically consider me a candidate for the men in white coats. You would be wrong, however. Based on the demographic evidence collated for this article, such a scenario looks not merely possible, but inevitable. In 2005 European males aged 20-40 outnumbered Muslim males of a similar age by 18:1. By 2025 this ratio could drop to a mere 2:1.

There is a common misconception that a significant erosion of our present 95% non-Muslim European majority could not possibly occur for many decades to come. People such as historian Bernard Lewis, a man whose views on Islam are held in high esteem, exacerbate this. When he made his prediction in 2004 that Europe would be Islamic by the end of the century, he did so on the basis of an overall Muslim majority.

Although such a dire prediction is shocking, it does not force us into a position where urgent steps need to be taken to alleviate such a future. We will not be here at such a distant point and can therefore presently reject as overly extreme the actions necessary to prevent it. Suppose though, that contrary to Professor Lewis’s benign view of a “democratically Islamic Europe”, Europe’s Muslims felt unwilling to wait another 80 years to expand their caliphate via the voting booth, and decided instead to take Europe through force.

In this scenario our majority is rapidly eroded due to a number of factors. In 2005, European males aged 0-19 (those capable of fighting in twenty years time) accounted for only 10% of their total population. Muslim males in the same age bracket accounted for 23% of theirs. These figures can be seen in this table and are extracted from the population pyramids compiled by the US Census Bureau 2005. (These figures represent all the countries in continental Europe, rather than EU member states alone).

In addition, the Muslim population, with its birth rate of 3.5 children per women effectively doubles its next generation, whilst the European birth rate of 1.5 children per woman ensures the next generation is 25% smaller than that of its parents.

This loss of almost one third of tomorrow’s generation necessitates massive immigration in order to prop up our welfare states, the majority of which is set to come from Muslim countries. According to the Daily Telegraph, the UN predicts Europe will need to take in 2.2 million immigrants per year, through to 2050.

Once the Muslim population climbs over 3% of the population in Western countries, native Europeans start to emigrate. The Dutch, French, Germans and British are leaving in unprecedented numbers, as noted in a Daniel Pipes article entitled “Europeans Fleeing Eurabia” which should be read in conjunction with this article.

If it is really true that up to 40% of Muslims wish to see Europe operating under Sharia Law, then the ingredients for a Europe V Islamic civil war are already in place, save for the Muslim weight of numbers; an issue being rapidly resolved. By 2025 the combination of factors mentioned above will lead to such a massive transformation in Europe’s demographic makeup that Islam may well have sufficient numbers to confront us.- - - - - - - - - -I first read Pat Buchanan’s book Death of The West three years ago, which opened my eyes to the demographic imbalance between the birth rates of native Europeans and Muslim immigrants. Although full of doom and gloom, Buchanan never ventured a particular opinion on the likelihood of a full-blown war, perhaps due to the likely backlash from Muslims in America.

This omission was partly rectified by Mark Steyn in America Alone where he does mention war as a possible scenario, but neglects to predict any particular decade. Indeed, he seems to be of the opinion that Europe will acquiesce without any resistance at all. Much as I respect Mr Steyn, I believe he is utterly wrong about this. Europeans have a history of warfare; it is unlikely we will roll over without a fight.

If a Europe V Islam civil war is a possibility, then it is clearly prudent to look at the demographics of the particular section of our population who will actually fight it: Males aged between 18-40. The ratio of these potential combatants in 2005 was 18:1 in our favour.

Now, 18:1 appears to be a number that we can cope with, albeit with a certain amount of low-level violence, but what happens when that ratio becomes 10:1 or 5:1? What would be the likely result, for example, if twenty-five European chartered accountants were confronted by five machete wielding Jihadists? The answer is fairly predictable; they would run away, to file tax returns another day.

Suppose, though, that inside each accountant’s briefcase, lurking alongside their blackberries and slide rules was a machete twice the size of the Jihadists preferred tools of trade? Same answer, they will still seek to escape. Knife fighting to the death is not on the curriculum at the East Midlands College of Accountancy and Equality, nor is it in the temperament of average European males, be they football hooligans with a penchant for fisticuffs, let alone accountants.

Conversely, when a solitary but fully armed US Marine finds himself confronted by five machete wielding Jihadists, it’s fairly safe to say he will recount the ensuing events to his comrades the following morning. The Jihadists, on the other hand, are more likely to have had an up close and personal chat with Allah, prior to salaciously indulging themselves amongst their newly acquired harem of celestial virgins.

Which brings me to the point of this article. 5:1 is no guarantee that the majority will win and 5:1 is where we will find ourselves long before 2025. When I started looking at these figures, I anticipated that the numbers necessary for a civil war — based on today’s 18:1 — would not be in place until well into the second half of this century, but I was wrong. By 2025 Europe could find itself with a potential combatant ratio of 2:1 as shown in the following extrapolated figures, with the ratio figure rounded up or down:

Year 2005 - Overall Population.

Total Population:

519 million

Non-Muslim European population:

494 Million.

Muslim population:

26 Million.

Ratio:

19:1

Year 2005 - Males Aged 20-40

Non-Muslim European population:

70.3 Million.

Muslim population:

3.9 Million 1

Ratio:

18:1

Year 2025 - Males Aged 20-40

Non-Muslim European Population:

53.4Million

Muslim Population:

5.9 Million

Ratio:

9:1

This ratio of 9:1 is not hypothetical; the people it represents are already here in our maternity wards and schools. It does not however, represent the true picture of 2025. Europe’s welfare states need a constant ratio of workers to dependents, a situation that requires immigration due to feminism’s legacy of career before children. The aforementioned UN report suggests that Europe will require 2.2 million immigrants per year, with the majority coming from Muslim countries. When these extra 28 million immigrants are taken into account the figures look as follows.

Year 2025 - Males Aged 20-40

Non-Muslim European Population:

53.4 Million

Muslim Population:

10.1 Million 2

Ratio:

5:1

As these numbers slowly change the character of Europe, many Europeans will simply pack up and leave, a situation occurring already in unprecedented numbers in countries such as Holland which has a 6% Muslim population, one of the highest in Western Europe. According to the Telegraaf an estimated 121,000 native Dutch emigrated in 2006 compared to only 30,000 in 1999. The demographic profile of these emigrants was well educated, 35-44 with good incomes. Their exodus represents a massive 4.5% of their entire age group. In one year.

In Britain, with a lower Muslim percentage but a higher incidence of terrorist activity, more than one in two wish to emigrate. So, to take an overly conservative figure of emigration amongst 20-40 year olds running at a mere 1% per annum, the figures would look as follows.

Year 2025 - Males Aged 20-40

Non-Muslim European Population:

44.6 Million

Muslim Population:

10.1 Million

Ratio:

4:1

In the event of civil war erupting, does anyone seriously think that Turkey would remain on the sidelines? By 2025 there will be some 12 millionTurkish males of fighting age. They will probably be part of the European Union well before then, but, if not, it is unlikely that the necessity of a visa will stop them from crossing the border in aid of their fellow Muslims. Should this transpire, the figures are as follows:

Year 2025 - Males Aged 20-40

Non-Muslim Population:

44.6 million

Muslim population:

22.1 million

Ratio:

2:1

Third world immigration into Europe is quite possibly an issue that politically correct Europeans will grudgingly accept; the Islamification of Europe is another matter entirely and I have seen nothing in the rhetoric or physical actions of European Muslims to suggest this is not their aim. Europeans will not allow this to happen, the politicians in suits will find themselves usurped by the men in the streets. This is why these numbers are so important.

And these numbers are probably worse than I suggest here. As events unfold, the 1% trickle of European emigration I cite could well turn into a flood. Daniel Pipes considers an exodus of the bourgeoisie to be a distinct possibility. Also, I am not a demographer3, so I have no idea how to factor in the children of the millions of immigrants predicted to arrive year on year through to 2050. In addition, the majority of immigration is likely to be made up 20-40 year olds, so the 15% figure of their total between now and 2025 could be only half of the true number.

Finally, what statistical advantage do fanatics prepared to die for their cause have over post-Christian Europeans? Unless things change, Europe will find itself with a mere 2:1 advantage within 18 years, and a 5:1 advantage within the next ten. I wouldn’t like odds of 5:1 let alone 2:1, and the argument that moderate Muslims will not become involved is specious; once a few tit for tat atrocities are committed, everybody will be forced to take sides.

The ramifications of these figures will deeply affect Europe over the next ten years, which I will discuss in part two of this article.

Note 1: The US Census population pyramids suggest countries with high birth rates — i.e. Muslim — are made up of 23% male 0-19 year olds, and 15% male 20-39 year olds. These are the percentages used for this article in the regrettable absence of census figures.

Note 2: I have taken the immigration rate as being 70% Islamic, and used 15% of this figure to arrive at the number of males aged 20-40.

Note 3: I am neither a demographer nor mathematician. Due to this, there are slight inconsistencies in the table accompanying this article, although they do not affect the overall figures. One example is my use of 20-40 year olds rather than 18-40 year olds, purely as an ease of projection. Should there be any professional demographers reading this, perhaps they could build a spreadsheet acceptable to scholars. These figures need to be in the public domain and discussed at the highest level.

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comments:

I have a theory that when the percentage of Peace Loving Muslims per population reaches 10%, they cease to be peace loving and begin to campaign for change to society to meet the requirements of their faith.I haven't calculated yet at what percentage of the total population is required before outright confrontation and civil war occur but your statistics are frightening.

An Islamic terrorist in the Netherlands kills one well-known Dutchman (Theo Van Gogh) in a grotesque and bloody fashion, on the streets of Amsterdam, and a 121,000 Dutch people leave the country -per year- shortly thereafter.

Now that's an effective jihadist technique.

Kill 191 Spaniards and the country capitulates from fighting in Iraq.

Kill 50 some Brits in London and they let Iran kidnap their sailors on the high seas with impunity.

THis is a good article. The only thing I'll disput with at the moment is the bit about Turkey. Given the glacial speed of the accession talks it's unlikely Turkey will have entered the EU before 2030. In fact 2025 was the posted date for their entry when things were moving nice and speedily, and that was about three years ago. They're on the verge of changing their minds now. When polled, the majority in almost every european country has said no to Turkey joining because they can see how bad immigration problems are now, and they can se what would happen in millions of turks were allowed to freely cross our borders. A lot of Turks don't want it either. They see the EU as a threat to their culture, which is ironic in a way.

The EU wants turkey in because they'll supply the grunts in their new European Army. With no other reason for them to tjoin it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify their entry, and the process has completely stalled. They'll be outsiders when and if this "civil" war happens.

I believe that the EUropean Government is already lost to us. If her people are as thoroughly disarmed as the Brits, there will be no war, only a bloodbath.The Black Dog is indeed alive and well in my mind on the matter.

If one believes in karma or divine justice/retribution, then a bloody civil war is what Europe has earned for exterminating its Jews and continuing to push for the extermination of Jews outside its borders, who are descended from those who fled their extermination.

I freely admit that, probably like many Jews, I will shed no tears for Europe should this civil war happen.

The "good" Europeans? If they know what's good for them, let them leave now. But not to America. People who leave failed policies still end up taking their beliefs in those policies with them (like the way liberal Bay Staters turned New Hampshire into a blue state, or hippy New Yorkers turned Vermont into basically a Marxist one). We don't need millions of left-wing (and even those on the European right are liberal/left by American standards) Europeans fleeing failed socialist and multiculturalist policies and then implementing their failed ideas here, turning America hopelessly Democratic and leftist.

I'm European. I'm English. I seem to recall that we fought the people who exterminated the Jews tooth and nail between '39 and '45. Has that slipped your memory?

I am not sure I agree with Paul Weston's analysis. First, he admits he's not a demographer.

Secondly he doesn't take into account the possibility of Islamic integration into society. I don't think all muslim immigrants will remain muslim. I especially don't think this is the case if they come under societal pressure to secularize and as the islamic proportion of the population rises this will happen.

Thirdly, Mr Weston makes an example of the number of Dutch folk leaving that country. Is it not possible that quite a lot of them were settling elsewhere in Europe?

Fourthly, Paul Weston makes the mistake of aggregating all muslims together and assuming they represent a coherent force. They do not. The UK has a large number of muslims from Pakistan and a large number from Bangladesh. They don't get on. Neither group has much in common with Somalis and UK Arabs are a again totally different.

So, what do I think will happen? Well, I don't know but I suspect continual, sporadic terrorism. I also suspect the EU will collapse and certain nations will impose very tough rules on immigration. An absolute tipping-point for the fracture of the EU is Turkey joining. Why? Because the list of reasons why Turkey joining is not a good idea would cover a ream of paper. Quite simply everyone has a reason to object. Yes, even many European muslims...

Nick, to take your second point, I've seen articles in the christian press that have covered certain demographic changes simply not noted by other media. In france, more muslims convert way from Islam than are joining it - by birth, immigration or conversion. While the number of immigrants with muslim heritage is growing, the number of muslims isn't necessarily growing with it.

The article was interesting in that it didn't claim all these muslims were converting to christianity. Most christian media I read tend to try and portray everything as "a victory for christ" but this article was more realistic about it, pointing out that they were joining a myriad of other faitsh, or simply becoming athiest like like Ayaan Hirs Ali.

it is true, however, that countries with a large and rapidly increasing number of immigrants experience increasing emmigration. Where they go isn't important, the fact that they feel it necessary to leave is, and I expect that at least part of the reason is the wider problem of "multiculturalism" being imposed by those in power.

Yes it does matter where they go. If they are moving within Europe then this aspect of Mr Weston's argument about the demographics of Europe as a whole is void.

I don't think they're becoming Christian or joining other faiths as much as just becoming apathetic. They may retain many aspects of their culture (including some rather unpleasant ones) but they are happy to chat-up (western) girls and drink beer. There is a very interesting social shift occurring in the UK's inner cities which seems to involve a synergy between a semi-secular Islam and Trotskyite politics. I think it's way to early to predict where that's actually going.

Islam has always been a political religion par excellence and it seems to be becoming more politicized by the day. If you actually look at the demands Islamists tend to make they are almost exclusively politico-economic and rarely have a significant spiritual dimension even if they are expressed in the language of religion.

What really worries me is that by nailing their colours to the left-wing mast and the politics of resentment these immigrants will never leave the ghetto. There is a standard pattern for immigrants to ghetto-ize and then break out into main-stream society. In the UK this has happened with the French Hugeonots, Irish, Jews, Hindus, Sikhs, Carribeans... But what if this doesn't happen with muslim immigrants? What if they remain marginalized by their left-wing political views?

Well, this is what I fear, I call it the multiplier. This behaviour will fuel resentment with the inner-city whites (and not just the whites - believe it or not in parts of London in the mid 90s the racist BNP formed a tactical alliance with Sikhs because they both hated the Pakistanis) and this will fuel neo-nazi style parties. This will further fuel the Trotskyite/(soft)Islamic groups and so on and on and on.

Why do I call them "soft Islamic"? Because they are. A real out and out Islamists like the Taliban would never go along with Trotskyite's views on homosexuality, feminism, abortion etc. These people just want a free ride and are not interested in working their way out of the ghetto as generations of migrants to these shores have so assidiously done.

Of course there's also the real nutters but they are a very small minority. Our biggest threat are those muslims who just want more benefits etc. and align themselves with the nutters for tactical, political rather than ideological, religious reasons.

I'm European. I'm English. I seem to recall that we fought the people who exterminated the Jews tooth and nail between '39 and '45. Has that slipped your memory?

Has it slipped your mind that Britain listened to the Arabs, especially the Haj Amin al-Husseini, and shut the doors of Palestine to European Jews, (not to mention her own borders) condemning hundreds of thousands, perhaps more than a million to death?

Has it slipped your mind that Hitler offered to Britain to save the Jews of Hungary in late 1943, in exchange for putting them ANYYWHERE on British soil, and they refused, condemning 400,000 Hungarian Jews to the gas chambers?

Has it also slipped your mind that even AFTER the Holocaust, Britain did everything in its power to keep the concentration camp survivors in DP camps and out of Palestine? And then armed Jordan when Israel finally became independent?

Just because Britain fought the Nazis does not mean it was not complicit in the Shoah. It was complicit, and enthusiastically so. Brits helped to round up and deport Jews in Jersey and Guernsey, which were occupied by the Nazis.

And it is complicit today, primarily through the BBC and Channel 4, in vilifying and dehumanizing the Jews as monsters that deserve to be exterminated. Their crime? Daring to defend themselves. Europeans, including Brits, LOVE dead Jews, but there is nothing they hate more on this planet than live Jews who resist death.

And when Britain stood alone against Nazi Germany, what was America doing?

Sweet FA.

Back then, just like today, we had our alliance of Marxist "pacifists" and America-First xenophobes (like today's Buchananites) to overcome. And like today, the far left "pacifists" dominated academia, the news media, and the Democratic Party.

If they are moving within Europe then this aspect of Mr Weston's argument about the demographics of Europe as a whole is void.

You know, you're right. I was still thinking in terms of outside the continent. A lot of migrants are moving to places like Morocco, the middle east and the far east these days, but there's still a lot of movement within the continent as a whole that I hadn't considered. I guess it doesn't really count in the stats because they aren't officially registered in the same way.

I'm not sure how important martial comparisons of European chartered accountants with knife-wielding Jihadists are. The main question may be, would the national armed forces or NATO enter the fight, and on which side?

There is no choice but the war. It is not one that the West asked for, but it war IS the answer. Unfortunately, they didn't ask the question first.

Barbarians rap on the gate, and no one can rouse themselves to answer. Christian children are roasted and served on rice, and silence meets the crime. Jews face another devastation, and the West is passive. Her Majesty's Navy is humiliated, and the answer is talk.

No matter when this war is fought, Europe will lose it. The Muslims believe in something for which they are willing to die (unfortunately, that something is the enslavement and extermination of everyone else). The Europeans don't believe there is anything worth dying for.

Combine that with the inevitable demography, and I honestly can't see how the non-Muslims in Europe can win.

From their perspective, the best they can do is retreat to nations in Eastern Europe where the Islamification is not so advanced, and make their last stand -- Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Baltic States, and maybe Greece.

But flanked by an increasingly Islamic Western Europe and (let's not forget) an increasingly Islamic Russia -- which means being surrounded by Islamic nukes, even for Eastern Europe, the surrender to Islam is inevitable.

Profitsbeard - your comment triggered a memory of this article:http://awesternheart.blogspot.com/2006/12/london-worse-than-baghdad.htmlQuote: "As bad as the big, bad "civil war" in Iraq is, more people want to get the hell out of London to secure their future, than want to leave Baghdad"

Earlier this week, a comment on another blog mentioned the ultimate outcome of the demographic surge in France:

Quote: "France is the ONLY country in Western Europe that has a sustainable population birth rate--and that's only due to non-ethnic French births. Just whom do you think will wear a French uniform (police or military) in 10 or 20 years? end Quote

It will become a country of aging and helpless pensioners in a wretched few more years subject to the vote of youthful hoards coming of age in a 'democratic' country.

***From a book titled: called "JIHAD in the West". A prescient work by Paul Fregosi as it was published pre 9/11 in 1998.

One paragraph found midway down page 22 is haunting . . .

The Jihad originates in the Koranic teaching and was practiced by Muhammad in his lifetime against Jewish and pagan tribes in the Arabian peninsula, and soon after his death against the Persians and against the Christian peoples of the Byzantine empire, Syria, and Palestine. Hundreds of years later it terrified Europe. "From the fury of the Mahommedan, spare us, O Lord" was a prayer heard for centuries in all the churches of central and southern Europe.

I freely admit that, probably like many Jews, I will shed no tears for Europe should this civil war happen.So we're supposed to be deeply concerned about Jews, but you are under no obligation to be concerned for us? That's interesting.

The "good" Europeans? If they know what's good for them, let them leave now.Everyone knows how inexpensive and simple it is to move to another country when you work a low-paying, relatively unskilled job. In general, leaving behind your country is the easiest thing ever. We should just all move, like right now.

But not to America. People who leave failed policies still end up taking their beliefs in those policies with them (like the way liberal Bay Staters turned New Hampshire into a blue state, or hippy New Yorkers turned Vermont into basically a Marxist one). We don't need millions of left-wing (and even those on the European right are liberal/left by American standards) Europeans fleeing failed socialist and multiculturalist policies and then implementing their failed ideas here, turning America hopelessly Democratic and leftist.So now you're basically saying that Europeans are exactly like Muslims, and will import their failed culture into the US and destroy it in the process. Nothing is more retarded than moral equivalency.

Also, the kind of people who pre-emptively flee the impending civil war are not exactly the kind of people who support multiculturalism and Islam, but I guess that must have been too complicated for you to figure out.

Jesus Christ Supercop said...Also, the kind of people who pre-emptively flee the impending civil war are not exactly the kind of people who support multiculturalism and Islam

Well, there would be two kinds. The first is people who value Western civilization and human freedom, and who leave because they can see it being destroyed in their countries. Those Europeans would make their way to America to mount a last stand against Islam, and I would welcome them as countrymen and allies.

The other group would be frightened pansy Eurosocialists just running away and trying to save their own necks. I can't see any possible benefit to allowing them in America, and plenty of drawbacks.

Has it slipped your mind that Britain listened to the Arabs, especially the Haj Amin al-Husseini, and shut the doors of Palestine to European Jews

Haj Amin al-Huseini was appointed Grand Mufti of Jerusalem by the first Jewish Governor of Palestine since Roman times, a man named Herbert Samuel, Leader of the Liberal Party. It was he who appointed Al-Husseini against the advice of his officials.

THe British are the Puppetmasters of the World, behind every conspiracy, and all other peoples are glove puppets for the brilliant English to make them dance and act like fools but that is simply because the English are genetically and intellectually superior to all other peoples and were given dominion over them

THe British are the Puppetmasters of the World, behind every conspiracy, and all other peoples are glove puppets for the brilliant English to make them dance and act like fools but that is simply because the English are genetically and intellectually superior to all other peoples and were given dominion over them

The last I looked, the saying did not go "The Sun Never Set on the Zionist Empire."

The British didn't need a clandestine conspiracy to dominate much of the world at one time. They did so quite openly.

So we're supposed to be deeply concerned about Jews, but you are under no obligation to be concerned for us? That's interesting.

I tell you what. When Jews gather up 40% of Europeans, herd them in cattle cars, seize their property, and then gas and incinerate them,, you'll have an argument on that one. You have the nerve to accuse ME of moral equivalency when you equate Jews hating Europe for exterminating us with Europe hating Jews because we exist?

Everyone knows how inexpensive and simple it is to move to another country when you work a low-paying, relatively unskilled job. In general, leaving behind your country is the easiest thing ever. We should just all move, like right now.

Let's put it this way -- Europeans can make arrangements to move now, and minimize the inconvenience to themselves (as French Jews are doing), or they can wait until you know what hits the fan, and have to leave in a hurry and lose everything. The choice is yours.

So now you're basically saying that Europeans are exactly like Muslims, and will import their failed culture into the US and destroy it in the process. Nothing is more retarded than moral equivalency.

I am saying that Europeans will bring their belief in Socialism/statism, their hatred of organized religion, and their unshakable anti-Semitism with them, and it will ruin us - yes, absolutely I'm saying it. And even most Europeans on the right (by European standards) probably believe in things like socialized medicine and are hostile to religion and the notion of self-responsibility.

With all due respect, sir, I cannot agree that Europeans are just ready to turn over their belly and submit to Islam. Yes, this is true about the elites, definitely.

But the elites are increasingly isolated from the people. And there is a lot of indignation and, in some instances, wrath, among the Europeans against Islam being stuffed down their throats. And this is developing quite fast; for example, when I compare the "Comment" sections of The Daily Telegraph, there is a torrent of anger directed at Islam from average British readers, and no one even tries to censor it anymore. This would be unthinkable 2 years ago.

Also, native Europeans are quite capable of creating physical havoc. At every major soccer match, police is confronted with a violent mob. Levels of violence in the street are not exactly low, and this is not exclusively work of Muslims. From what I've heard, infidel British underclass is more than capable of confronting Pakistani gangsters in the street, though BBC whitewashes it every day.

And the last thing to keep in mind is that a victorious war takes more than only wielding of machettes. For example, the Germans are really really systematic, industrious and cold-blooded people. If they elect a "tough leader" one day, their problem with Islam will be solved in a way that makes me shiver only thinking about.

The Netherlands are really crowded place. Most people can't imagine how much.

A lot of Dutch leave the Netherlands because of the crowded nature of the place. They are quite rich and they can buy real estates in much of the Europe cheaper than in the Netherlands. There is already a visible Dutch population in Czechia, for example - and some older Dutch people actually settle in the Czech mountains, because the terrain is so different from their lowlands.

Also, I have read (cannot provide the link) that more than a few Dutch Moroccans return back from Netherlands for various reasons.

While non-Muslim European youths might be capable of being violent and racist, they face several problems:

1) Their numbers are declining every year, while the number of young Muslims is growing rapidly. Mob violence is almost always the work of urban youth, and it is in that demogrpahic that Muslims are most highly proportionally represented.

2) They simply do not have the fanaticism of Muslims. Even the most fanatic neo-Nazi skinhead will not strap a bomb to himself and blow himself up to take out a bunch of Muslims. In a war, the desire to win is a big part of the battle, and the Muslims have this hands down.

3) The Muslim youths will have outside nations from the Islamic world giving them aid -- bombs, guns, intelligence, etc. What Western nation is going to aid the European nationalists?

About the only way any nation can stop Islam, and only in the next 3-5 years tops, would be a military coup, enforced internment and deportation of Muslims -- and a willingness for thousands of their countrymen to die in the inevitable revenge bombings that Muslims will inflict. I don't see any nation in Europe having the will to withstand daily bombings against schools, train stations, hospitals, etc. Thus, even a coup would probably fail.

Zerosum: from my experience, it is always hard to predict the future on a scale of 5, let alone 20 years. Too many incalculable events happen.

1) and 2) Here it should be taken into account that not everyone who is born into an Arabic family is a Muslim. For example, about 1,5 million Iranian expatriates live in Europe. Most of them actually fled the Iranian Islamic Republic, because they were secular. These people will not give support to another Islamic revolution.

2) If European nations tolerate fanatic preachers, they may end up with a population of Islamic fanatics. This is case of Great Blind Britain. But this situation is different in different countries. For example, the French "youths" are not the devout Muslims of the British type. They are rather gangsters - violent, drug-trafficking, and not willing to sacrifice their lives. Many of them abuse drugs or even alcohol, which does not exactly make one a good fighter.

3) If anything "hits the fan", it will be hard for the Muslim nations to provide material supplies over the Mediterranean. You can't easily smuggle a shipload of weapons over such a big sea, IF it is guarded from the air. The Balkan route is even more problematic.

While your analysis of European and American prospects is generally accurate, your vituperative hatred of all thing European is self defeating to say the least. Your own Jews are themselves responsible for the most reliable leftist voting block in America and in Europe. Leftist policies which, as you have accurately pointed out, are leading to the demise of the West.

Even Israel appears to be yielding to indigenous leftist pressures and loosing its own will, and one need look any further than the recent "war" with Hezbollah.

You could ennumerate any number of "crimes" commited by Europeans against the Jews and smugly rest assured of your own moral superiority. But in the end, the Jews fate lies with those of European extraction - like it or not. I would suggest you come to grips with that fact sooner rather than later since we need those of your particular stripe in this long war against Islam.

I would also suggest that you resist your obvious penchant for despair.

Your own Jews are themselves responsible for the most reliable leftist voting block in America and in Europe.

Actually, blacks are the most reliably left-wing voting block, but I too must admit a fair amount of aggravation with my fellow Jews for their continued adherence to leftist principles. They had a certain logic when the enemies were the Nazis or the Slavofascists of Czarist Russia; they have no place today, when the Marxist left has basically adopted Nazi rhetoric.

Even Israel appears to be yielding to indigenous leftist pressures and loosing its own will, and one need look any further than the recent "war" with Hezbollah.

Olmert has very little support in Israel; it is the fractious, multiparty parliamentary system, and the divided Likud, that keeps him in power, not the softness of the Israeli Jews.

But in the end, the Jews fate lies with those of European extraction - like it or not. I would suggest you come to grips with that fact sooner rather than later since we need those of your particular stripe in this long war against Islam.

Here we more or less disagree. Israel must look to non-European nations, first and foremost among them the USA, which for the most part has culturally and spiritually broken with Europe, and demographically is becoming less European all the time. I think the same is increasingly true of Australia. Further, Israel will have to look to non-European nations for help who also face problems with Islam -- Thailand and India come to mind -- and that might actually stand up to the Jihadis.

A second point on this matter -- when we talk of European civilization, we talk of Christianity. And it is dying in Europe, but flourishing elsewhere, especially its more conservative forms -- Evangelical Protestantism is growing in the USA and Latin America, and even among the left-wing, anti-Israel churches of the WCC, the more conservative groups are increasingly ascendant, and located outside of the industrialized West -- just note the rift in the Anglican/Epsicopal church, with Africans leading the revolt against the leftist leadership.

I would also suggest that you resist your obvious penchant for despair.

People with far greater academic and journalistic credentials than me share this pessimism -- with Mark Steyn heading the list.

Zerosumgame: it is relatively easy to be a pessimist from the other side of the ocean.

For us, European patriots, this is too big luxury. We must think of every possible way how to fight for our heritage.

Today, it is mainly question of countering the multiculti propaganda. And I think that the Americans could learn this too, because political correctness is totally rampant in the US (and UK), while not so much in many of the European countries. Aside from Tom Tancredo and perhaps Rick Santorum, I cannot think of an American politician who would make a stand against Islam itself: while Philippe de Villiers, Geert Wilders or Carl Hagen are mainstream politicians in their countries.

Tomorrow, it might mean physical fight. And in this phase, pessimism from our potential allies would be a lethal gift. It will be rather the "Praise Lord and pass the ammo" moment.

What caused the fall of British Singapore to Japanese Imperial Army? Pessimism alone.

The Jihadist crowd is far from being a killer machine like the Wehrmacht was. They are fractured by personal infighting, unskilled in war except occasional terror. They speak different languages (Urdu, Farsi, Arabic), which is enough to hinder their efficiency. And no, religious zeal is no match against a technically skilled enemy, as the SS found out (and the Red Army too, for example in 1940 Finland).

The victory in an eventual war will be a question of the morale from at least 50%. Getting depressed ahead = shooting oneself in a foot.

Thanks for your excellent, though depressing, though lucid article.I would like to add that the numbers of Muslims in European countries today is grossely underestimated. In France for example, where I live, there is a huge amount of illigal immigrents who don't get counted as such even though everyone knows about them. most of them, if not all, come from muslim countries.The second point is that no body counts as immigrent in France a person born in France holding french nationality- he is counted as French. In many cases these are immigrents' children who don't adhere more then their parents to any eurpoean value or norme. So the point is - the numbers you mentioned, which I suppose are the official figures are way underestimated.

Another issue is that even without war, the European culture is getting wiped out by the influence of the arab mentality on the original european people. Unfortunately, in a group of people, it's often the more agressive and opressive who give the tone, and thus many european children who have to go to school with children of other mentalities change their behavior and even their language to a point where they sometime negate their culture of origine just to please, or out of fear. Thus goes down the enlightment of european history. I've seen more then one youngster coming from a good french family expressing himself through the typical 100 word vocabulary with the agressive and blunt accent of our newcomers. God save Europe ! (and not just any god, I mean...)

While it is true that Islamists will be fighting among themselves, they will quite often ally together against the kaffir (unbelieving Westerner), for the good of the Muslim umma.

Secularists - that is, most modern Western Europeans - see Christians as a vicious threat against their own way of life and freedom. Therefore, the Muslim today remains an ally against the vicious Christians, because the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This explains the virulent hatred of Jews and of America, and of generic Christians as well, who also come in for great mockery and hidden spite.

Do not take comfort in the infighting among Islamists, for they are united in their belief in their umma. The Western secularists will be fighting too, among themselves. Appeasement to-save-us vs confrontation-to-save-us will drive this internal conflict. In addition, the 'restoration of society' via a return to traditional values vs a strengthening of secularism as the only real hope, will also be a tremendous dividing point. There will be no unification, just a vast seething cauldron of hatred.

Leave while you can, though be assured this shadow of despair will eventually fall upon everyone, everywhere. It is falling over Europe now already. In the slowly deepening European twilight, there is an echoing sound of far running footsteps and distant screams and shouts of outrage; there is an increasing odor of char and smoke. In the slowly deepening European twilight, the townspeople shutter their windows, bar their doors, and light their lanterns with wide and confident - but fake - smiles. They have ceded the broad wilderness and huddle now in isolated towns. They deny this, and they deny the existence of evil and curse the religious, in the same breath. A nearby sudden, loud noise brings a burst of adrenaline - again - and then the usual collapse into its continuous aftereffect of exhaustion, and this physical and spiritual exhaustion too is denied. In the slowly deepening European twilight, night is drawing near.

Muslims do not conform to european demographic norms . Each female imports a breeding partner and each male between 1 and 4 by divorcing each in turn and dumping them and their offspring on the welfare state.This increases their rate of increase by a factor of between 2 and 5.

How to get the Taxpayer to buy your house for you: 1 Buy a house on mortgage or cash loan and put in wife's name.

2 Get brother to do same.

3 Rent brothers house and move in.

4 Brother ditto.

5 Both claim housing benefit and use it to pay off loans.

Housing benefit officers know about it but do NOT check to see if wives own property.

Zerosumgame, if you are still there: You appear to anticipate that the State of Israel will survive after Western Europe has been defeated. But if Europe is defeated this leaves Israel surrounded by Muslim countries and a couple of Muslim-controlled seas. The Muslims would then merely have to put together an economic blockade and Israel would be doomed. Unless you are putting your faith in Turkey or Egypt....

Although I am alarmed by the rise in articles such as this, it signals a rise in awareness so I should be grateful. No pain no gain as they say.

Today I received an email from a friend who dislikes my political views. She told me she worked at a school in Bradford in which almost all pupils were muslim. 90% of the mothers wore the full face veil which she said she initially found intimidating. She eventually grew used to it but 'learnt how much she relied on reading people's lips to hear'.

How infuriating it is to hear someone say they have nothing against the Islamification of Britain, but at the same time have them acknowledge it hampers their ability to communicate.

When are average Britons going to stop being so god damn nice about it?

When is it going to change?

I regret to say it will take a few more terrorist attacks to finally wake the masses from their slumber. I ashamedly admit I am hoping they will happen sooner rather than later, especially given your data showing mushrooming muslim populations.

there is going to be a lot of traitors to the west. From people who are just too cowardly to think of resistance, to people who are really convinced about the inferiority of the west. We can't rely on support of the whole population.

What we need to do is to create "cells" of resistance, few people in the beginning, but convinced about their mission.

The first thing to start with is probably dismantling of the welfare state, which now gives the muslims so big opportunity to breed at our expense. Given the development of public finances in Western countries, this dismantling is inevitable anyway, and that idea is much less controversial than anti-Islam thoughts - it can gain a widespread support.

It is not in internal nature of Muslims to "breed like mosquitos", as Mullah Krekar says. In Syria or Iran, the fertility per woman is about 2 babies, which is about the sustainability level. If our Muslim communities are pressed into normal urban working process and burdened with the same taxes as we are, their appetite for large families (= current cash cows) will swiftly subside.

Zerosumgame:I tell you what. When Jews gather up 40% of Europeans, herd them in cattle cars, seize their property, and then gas and incinerate them,, you'll have an argument on that one. You have the nerve to accuse ME of moral equivalency when you equate Jews hating Europe for exterminating us with Europe hating Jews because we exist?I'm pretty sure that I had nothing to do with the Holocaust, seeing as how I'm in the wrong time and place.

Enough with the victimhood. Nazi Germany is long gone. Point is, you can't except Europeans to be deeply concerned for your welfare with an attitude like that.

Another subtle, yet interesting sign of an impending European exodus: Those of you who follow English soccer may have noticed that there are more and more clubs that are being partly or completely bought up by foreigners, particularly Americans. Arsenal of London has become the latest to announce such a deal. If it goes through, three out of the top four clubs in England's Premier League (Manchester United, Liverpool FC and Arsenal) will be owned by Americans.

Why is this significant? Well, these clubs will be in a position to "temporarily" shift their operations Stateside while their UK- and European-owned rivals are stuck in their respective disintegrating and war-torn lands. No doubt the transition would still be rough, but it would at least still give those clubs a fighting chance at survival. It helps that the Americans who have bought the aforementioned Premiership clubs already own various American sports franchises. (It also gives clues as to where these clubs might end up if indeed they head to America to avoid the civil war. Tampa Bay United, anyone? How about the Dallas Reds, or the Denver Arsenal?)

Really? I guess you missed the part about Ahmedinejad explicitly saying he is going to exterminate the Jews, while Europe runs interference for him and continues to trade with him.

Point is, you can't except Europeans to be deeply concerned for your welfare with an attitude like that.

Europe has never been concerned with the welfare of the Jews except to kill us, beat us, steal our property from us, or exile us. And looking at their attitude toward Israel, and the rampant anti-Semitism in Europe, and not just among Muslims, I can see that nothing has changed since Hitler.

I have long written Europe off when it comes to ever sticking up for Jews. How can they give up a hate that, as Yitzhak Shamir said, they drink from their mother's milk?

Zerosumgame, in the words of the inimitable Ronald Reagan, "There you go again!"

Europe has never been concerned with the welfare of the Jews except to kill us, beat us, steal our property from us, or exile us. And looking at their attitude toward Israel, and the rampant anti-Semitism in Europe, and not just among Muslims, I can see that nothing has changed since Hitler.

And the Jews would be well advised to recognize that the only support they are likely to garner in Europe (or in the United States for that matter) is from the dormant, possibly nearly extinct, Conservatives. And no, Hitler was not a Conservative, but rather a radical socialist totalitarian.

Your failure to see others as individuals and to appreciate the differences among various subsets of individuals rather than lumping them together is characteristic of the leftist intellectual. Your persistent harboring of real and imagined historical slights is also reminiscent of leftist faux thought. The world is MUCH more complex than "Europe has never been concerned with the welfare of the Jews except to kill us, beat us, steal our property from us, or exile us."

I have long written Europe off when it comes to ever sticking up for Jews. How can they give up a hate that, as Yitzhak Shamir said, they drink from their mother's milk?

This is a grotesque and insulting generalization. The groups that internalize hatred from their mother's milk are the Islamic savages and the left. Your wholesale indictment of Europe is offensive to those on the continent who still value liberty. And make no mistake they still exist though in dwindling numbers.

Yes the Jews must fend for themselves - you got that right! But they persist in fiddling while the fire roars in Iran.

I must say this:As a jew, I would be deeply concerned for the Europeans.Most Europeans are not Nazis or Socialists.Most of them are naive people with good intentions that have been fed up too long by political correctness.

The same faith might spread.In Israel, the media started to censor reader comments on internet news sites.I did an experiment.I wrote one message about how bad the occupation is and how peaceful Islam is -> it was published.Another message was about facts about the Koran and a question about why tibetian occupation did not cause terrorism, and what occupation cause the Thailand terrorism -> censored.

If Israeli neo-marxists do it here, imagine what goes on in Europe.

Actually, I know.I lived in scandinavia at the time of the park hotel bombing.You'd assume the head line would say "tens of Israelis dead in a passover dinner due to palestinian bomber".It said something like "worries in the palestinian authority about the Israeli army possible retribution for attack in a hotel" then quated a palestinian woman telling her children to stay home.

We need Europe, and we need India, and we need everyone if we ever get out of this shit.

The first is that when I lived in scandinavia I met a few "muslims" who were as secular as you can get.pro-gay rights, live normal lives...many Iranians and some Turks were even supporters of Israel, which was surprising.I think the point made here that Iranians in Europe will not fall for another Islamic revolution is correct.Also, many turks despise arabs much more than anything else.

The second comment, is that you stillo need to face fanatical Islam FAST!I can see a very close day where the terrorists have nuclear weapons.Or at least Iran has and can threaten you with it.How would this change the dynamics?Would it make poeple to scared to act?

I admit this would scare me.I don't know what to think of it.It is one thing in the hands of communists like the USSR, which were shitty still...But what when it is in the hands of those who feel god calls them to use it?

From the Heartland of the USA:I am not optimistic. We will be the last to go. My hope is in Christ and the sheer unpredicability of history. Europe is finished because they are completely emasculated.

I do not recall the war,(fairly ancient)but a foreign commander faced Greek forces and concluded the Greek population must have been supplanted because the terrible army he faced could not have come from that heroic stock. There will not be another Whermact (SP), the tradition is gone. There is no Fatherland. There are Euros.

The collapse of Christianity in Europe guarantees its end, if for no other reason that the decadence that ensues mirrors the decline of Rome. Bread and Circuses.

Who knows what will really happen, but it appears the modern she-men of Europe will sell out their children to Sharia. The strange feeling I have has been echoed by some others, namely, that the people who will one day give in to Sharia see Christianity as the greater evil. This self loathing perspective, beyond any logic, holds that dealing death to Western Christian values is the greater imperative, even if it means Sharia. How else (for example) can feminists be silent when they must know what awaits women in an islamic culture?

I do not mean to insult my brothers and sister Europeans. Strangely, I still consider my family (after 350 years in the USA) English. I really, really, really want to be wrong about this.

I never, ever thought I would say this, but I personally prefer nuclear holocaust to Sharia for me and mine. I believe many here would fight with the ferocity of any muslim.

I just hope that Europeans have enough love for their countries to fight. Rightly or wrongly, I see them as soft, weak, self absorbed,and decadent. The Poles, and some of New Europe will hokd for awhile. Like Hitler in the Bunker, they will party til the lights go out.

I for one would like to point out that Europe has for the past millennia (and the past century), quite adequately demonstrated its capacity for (organized) violence. Impassively analyzed, it took combined forces of US, USSR and almost all European countries to quell the European civil war, (WWII), that is, to defeat a single European nation (i.e. Germany), whose creative energies were harnessed to wage war 'contra omnes'.

Which is why there is no doubt that Europe will survive the worst, but the question is, what will become of it - as Bruce Bawer puts it, 'the pendulum may swing too far to the right'... so, it is better to act now, while there is (I hope) still a chance that by curbing immigration, welfare reform, unrestrained free speech, unwavering defiance to the dhimmitude, etc. etc., the situation may be resolved without all-out war.

this blog is all too real. the moslems have never forgotten the Crusades, they dream of a moslem caliphate stretching from Bali to Barcelona, and are waging war while we sit, fat, stupid and bloated. the West better wake up, coz WW3 is upon us. its being fought along religius, cultural lines. while some NATO members fight and die, others, like Germany hide behind the sins of WW2. that is past. Europe is in danger of collapsing from within. the lax immigration policies, political correctness, and the catering to a hostile moslem populace will be Europe's undoing. it may be too late already. while the US, UK, CANADA, & Dutch fight, Germany does nothing, the FRENCH do some, but should and could do more. our way of life, our freedoms our forefathers fought for are being given away. inaction, ambivalence, and pacification will kill us. they see us as infidels, they believe its thier duty to kill us. why do we not fight back? we will regret our stepping in during the ethnic cleansing of Bosnia, Kosovo. these same people we saved, are trying to kill us. pull out of the Balkans ASAP, deny Turkey EU membership, and pull together. the US should become fast friends with India, coz we will need them when the islamo-facsists seize power in pakistan. they have nukes, and radical islam and nuclear weapons=WAR. do not sell p-stan any F-16's, stop the 1 billion per year we give, and KILL HAMID GUL!!

Muslims believe that a mehdi will come on earth as Jesus comes.In christian belief antichrist will come too. In Islam they call it deccal who will come to earth at the same time. And its said that Jesus never died. So he wanted to die as a muslim. It is said that one day when mehdi is praying in fromt of muslims, Jesus will be at the same mosque and mehdi will ask him to take his place in that praying session but he will refuse and pray along the people. After that many christians and even jews will convert to Islam.Together theyll kill deccal and restore peace. Now that the dark days are coming we are expecting them by 2019.Sad but true, there are no christians and jews left. All left is pacifist,secularist, liberalist and semitist crackheads.Dont forget there is no evolution. Accepting that your ancestors are monkey doesnt make it right!

Zerosumgame and All: "Europe" did not exterminate almost all its Jews, the Nazis did. Not all Europeans were Nazis at the time. Many Europeans helped save Jews from the Nazis. Aside from that, even if European governments support the sworn enemies of Israel--the "Palestinians" (heirs of Amalek)--at this time, we, all non-Moslems, must not wish one or the other faction of us ill, because we are all are in a life-and-death-struggle with Islam. As to how to stop Islamic takeover, and at what percentage Moslems become unbearable, see How to Stop Islamization--Drastic Times Call for Drastic Measures and elaborated at Even More Drastic Times Call for Even More Drastic Measures

An American here. I read the essay and about half the thread, so sorry if this has been said already. While I agree that Europe has a very serious problem, I don't think any civil war with jihadists is a foregone conclusion by any means.

The example of the jihadists versus the accountants is analogous to the classic question: In a war between file clerks and convicts, who wins?

The answer is the file clerks, but only in the long run. It's not just physical toughness and fanaticism that wins wars. It's organization, strategy and logistics.

And not only that, Europeans are not somehow a bunch of pansies now. That's just a stereotype, and a wrongheaded one.

What's happened is their continent was the front lines of three major wars from 1914 to 1989 -- not to mention lots of colonial wars -- they're a little tired and need a breather. They're not quite ready to get involved in a fourth war. If it comes, we'll see. My money's on the Europeans, though.

Plus, this entire essay assumes Europeans will have no cultural influence on Muslims, and that Muslims will remain exactly as they are and will become even more unified.

WHEN THE CHILREN AND GRAND-CHILDREN OF THE JUDGES WHO SET ALL THESE IDIOTS FREE IN THE US AND THE EUROPEAN UNION ARE HUNTED DOWN BY THE MUSLIMS THEY THEY THEMSELVES FREED ... SOME SENSE WILL COME TO THEM. THE MUSLIM POX IS WORSE THAN SMALL POX.... GET READY .... IT'S AMONGST ALL OF US ....WE'RE ALL SCREWED ... AND OUR CHILDREN TOO.... THE MUSLIMS SHOULD HUNT FOR THE JUDGES ...HOWLING AALAAAHUUU AKKKKHHBAAR....WHICH BY THE WAY MEANS ALLAH (THE IDIOT :) IS GREATER....ONLY THEN THE CHANGE WILL COME ...

Zerosumgame said: " They simply do not have the fanaticism of Muslims. Even the most fanatic neo-Nazi skinhead will not strap a bomb to himself and blow "

That is the sort of stupid fanaticism that has kept Islam losing wars for over a thousand years.

Western warriors aren't interested in dying for the cause. We are interested in making the opponent die for his cause. And that coldblooded ferocity that is still in European working class people, for now unroused, is what will see Europeans, well, get rid of Muslims if a war ever starts, regardless of ratios.