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Sunday, June 26, 2005

Natural Gas Cliff

Big Gav points to a Reuters article quoting the biggest "put the best face forward" big oil spokesman, CEO Lee Raymond of Exxon/Mobil, who realistically admits "Gas production has peaked in North America".

The USA has gone over a peak once before, specifically pertaining to oil production in the early 70's. However, because of the long tails of oil depletion, e.g. stripper wells producing for years beyond their prime, we can't necessarily depend on the smooth glide path of the last 30 years. (smooth glide path? yes, see the following quote)

I've been wondering that myself. I know we use coal for power, but if I remember correctly, it's not for that large of a precentage. Can coal make up the difference? Coal is so nasty, but since Nuclear (also not so great) is not happening any time soon, it might be our only option for keeping the lights on. I've been trying to put together a post about coal reserves and such in the US. I heard Kunstler in a radio interview saying that his research suggests that there may not be as much coal in the ground as we thought. Does anyone know about this? Is it an industry attempt to raise prices and get environmental concessions or is it the truth?

I've heard Bartlett at CU do a back of the envelope calculation for coal and a moderate growth rate coming up with something like 50 years before production peaks and begins to decline. Nothing like the 500 (250 million sez the idiot!) that keeps getting batted around).

Converting all US transport to electric and assuming neither battery losses nor efficiency gains (might be a wash) would require about 180 GW average, or ~1580 billion kWh per year. That's about 80% of what we get from coal, so we'd have to increase generation by 80% (minus whatever we can offset using wind and the like); if we boosted efficiency by 20% using IGCC, we'd only need 50% more coal.

Climate Primates

"Tell people something they know already and they will thank you for it. Tell them something new and they will hate you for it." - George Monbiot

"In news the rule is that liberals will watch the news, and conservatives will watch conservative news. A liberal will watch to see what you think, the conservative will watch to see how much you agree with him. This is why the headline world is so far to the right even of the content." - Stirling Newberry

"... it is calculable fact, week after week, on show after show -- unless you consider the mere act of reporting itself to be a 'liberal' act, which many movement conservatives do. " - Hunter

"The sneakiest form of literary subtlety, in a corrupt society, is to speak the plain truth. The critics will not understand you; the public will not believe you; your fellow writers will shake
their heads." - Edward Abbey

"The people of ____ have been led in ____ into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honour. They have been tricked into it by a steady withholding of information. The ____ communiques are belated, insincere, incomplete. Things have been far worse than we have been told, our administration more bloody and inefficient that the public knows... We are today not far from a disaster." - TE Lawrence

"My life's the disease that could always change
With comparative ease, just given the chance
My life is the earth, 'twixt muscle and spade
I wait for the worth, digging for just one chance
As prospects diminish, as nightmares swell
Some pray for Heaven while we live in Hell" - E&TB

"The juicy stories keep popping out ... like clowns from a clown car." - James Wolcott"Why don't they talk about the issues?! We're fighting for our LIVES here!!" - Marc Maron"That's it man, game over man, game over, man! Game over!" - Hudson played by Bill Paxton-- Irwin Shaw, The Young Lions