Julia Gillard should stay where she is. The Labor Party has run out of party tricks. The federal government's perceived unpopularity is a collective effort, an effort that began with Kevin Rudd, who as prime minister was so dysfunctional in his leadership and his megalomania that his own colleagues revolted against him.

Now he's being touted as prime minister again but not by those who removed him. The only people who will never be cured of the disease called ''leadership fever'' are the Canberra press corps and the media commentariat. When I tried to create a database of stories about leadership speculation, there were so many of them - about Howard and Costello, Beazley and Crean, Crean and Latham, Latham and Beazley, Beazley and Rudd, Costello and Turnbull, Nelson and Turnbull, Hockey and Turnbull, Gillard and Rudd, Abbott and Turnbull, and now Gillard and Rudd again and Gillard and Shorten - that I gave up. Let's just say there have been, oh, about 10,000 stories about federal leadership over the past eight years, a period of unprecedented carnage for federal political leaders.

Driving all this public speculation are the opinion polls. Who creates the opinion polls? The media. Who drafts the questions? The media. Who promotes the results? The media. Who acts as if opinion surveys are surrogate elections? The media. Who profits from the publicity and the speculation? The media.

Julia Gillard ... should stay where she is. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

The only group that takes these polls as seriously as the media is the political class, the group of politicians, courtiers, aides, ideologues, lobbyists and power groupies to whom politics is a career and a living.

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Now the Gillard government's primary vote has slumped to 30 per cent according to the latest Fairfax/Nielsen national phone poll, ''leadership fever'' has broken out again with a fury.

This faux news event - a phone poll is a scripted media event that has nothing to do with the electoral process - has prompted the speculative fever to intensify, with a collective titillation and agitation about the prospect of an Ides of March assassination.

The fact that only 30 per cent of Australians surveyed have indicated they intend to vote Labor at the next federal elections suggests Labor's support has fallen back to the rump of the electorate whose perceived self-interest is tied to Labor's fortunes, the public sector workers and unionists who benefit most from having a Labor government in Canberra.

Gillard may be responsible for a series of moral, ethical and policy mistakes but she had nothing to do with the collapse of Labor's credibility in the core electoral battle ground of greater Sydney, where Eddie Obeid, Joe Tripodi, Craig Thomson, Mark Arbib and Anthony Albanese have all left an indelible mark on the electorate's psyche.

Even if Labor were to be spooked and goaded into another leadership change by the media, nothing can remove the stain on Labor's reputation in Sydney and the central coast between now and September 14, the date set by the Prime Minister for the next election.

The entire federal Labor caucus is responsible for protecting and promoting Thomson in the 2010 election even after his troubles had become public knowledge, and the entire party is culpable for protecting him thereafter. The Labor machine tried to bury what this newspaper exposed.

The entire federal caucus is responsible for voting Peter Slipper into the speakership, a collective act of cynicism.

The entire caucus is responsible for deciding to run the campaign of personal attack on the character of the Leader of the Opposition as the government's main election campaign issue.

It was not Gillard, but the famously foul-mouthed Treasurer, Wayne Swan, who carries primary responsibility for the multiple blunders in the budget calculation. The same Treasurer who led the charge in the politics of personal vituperation. The same Treasurer Wayne Swan who was the first and last man standing in peddling the fantasy that this Labor government could ever deliver a budget surplus. The same Wayne Swan who negotiated the mining tax.

Also largely ignored is the stagnation of the Greens, which says a lot about where the electorate is heading. The indicative primary vote for the Greens is lower in this poll, 11 per cent, than it was in the 2010 federal election. The corruption and gold-plated stuff-ups that have afflicted the Gillard government have not translated into any benefit for the Greens.

The great weakness in this latest outbreak of ''leadership fever'' is the widespread assumption Labor could, or even would, snatch victory from defeat if it changed leader simply because the polls indicate that Rudd is more popular than Gillard or Abbott.

It is a facile assumption. It cannot factor in the reaction of the electorate. It assumes voters would not see another leadership pivot by Labor as an act of cynical desperation, no matter who ends up as the shiny new leader.

Let us not forget voters in NSW have already seen Labor pull this trick four times in recent years, have had a gutful of this tactic, and a gutful of Queenslanders shafting NSW on water rights, and would almost certainly see yet another Labor leadership pivot as an act of political bankruptcy.

329 comments

It’s hard to work out how Swan survives. If this was a Coalition government, if it was private industry someone with Swan’s track record – inability to count, forecast, analyse, inspire or accept any personal responsibility – would have been booted out months ago. Although he has proven quite enthusiastic about spending.

But things seem to work differently on the good ship Labor Concordia. If the Captain was slightly shrewder and smarter, and less afraid of mutiny, the bursar would have been jettisoned.

The longer he survives, the less likely the Captain will, and the more baggage the crew will have to remove. Mind you it doesn't help that the Captain is also having her worst week to date.

Commenter

Hacka

Location

Canberra

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 6:41AM

The chief executives of both BHP and Rio Tinto resign when their companies suffer dips in their bottom line. But not our Treasurer.

Commenter

Ray du Monde

Location

nsw

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 8:54AM

ditto for Howard - for his miscalculation on WMDs - which had a far more serious consequence than the underperforming mining tax.

Commenter

Ross

Location

MALLABULA

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 8:54AM

But John Howard was no different, and he was PM for 11 years. Why be so partisan about it, why not share the glory equally where it's deserved?

Commenter

BillR

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:08AM

Hacka your comments on Wayne Swan's lack of accountability are spot on. He would have lasted 3 months as a CEO.

Commenter

goodline

Location

newcastle

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:10AM

In business Swan doesn't have the qualifications to get a job to managing a $1m budget let alone a $300Bn one. No wonder he's out of his depth.

Commenter

nick

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:12AM

@ Ross 8.54am

You're forgetting the lying about children overboard, the Australian Wheat Board scandal (biggest disgrace involving an Aust federal government, IMO), the ritual breaking of "non-core" promises, the "never ever" GST........

Commenter

Big Willie Style

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:16AM

Ross. Told you before to change the record mate- the one about the Iraq war /WMD has worn out. We are all tired of hearing it - and everyone except you realises that Labor would have done exactly the same. Even now you beloved Labor Party has forged closer military links with the US - allowing US marines to be posted to the NT. I know it must be hard for you to face reality - and I know how how much you cherish you most prized possessions - that poster of Gough and your "It's Time" t-shirt.

Commenter

Foxxster

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:24AM

BillR and Ross - your disdain for Howard is noted.

However, he faced the electorate on five occasions (after 1995) and asked for their judgement. On four occasions he was rewarded. Remember, the PM reports to the people.

Labor didn't put up the same person for re-election in 2010 as was voted in 2007, so the electorate could pass judgement. In 2013, it may well be the same story.

In terms of the deputy, Swan, he reports to the boss. When you're not up to the job, you get sacked by the boss. Just ask John Kerin.

Commenter

Hacka

Location

Canberra

Date and time

February 21, 2013, 9:27AM

Ross and BillR - Time to move on fellas - its 2013 and last time i checked Gillard was PM (at least for this week anyway). Howard is old news.

21 Feb
The Gillard government is facing another $1 billion budget shortfall and an embarrassing parliamentary defeat, with the Greens and the Coalition set to block cuts to research and development funding.