Tim Collard is a retired British diplomat who spent most of his career in China and Germany. He is an active member of the Labour Party.

Thailand could be falling apart

The growing unrest in Thailand is giving rise to apprehension that the good days – and very good they were – may finally be drawing to a close.

It isn’t the sort of place popularly associated with large-scale political conflict, though in fact they’ve had their share. But it’s looking like the vast social inequalities in the country are beginning to take their toll on the set of complex social contracts which govern this intricately intertwined society, with Lord Buddha and King Bhumibol reigning benevolently over all.

Apologies for over-simplification, but the problems came with former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and his realisation a few years back that a rich man with the right approach could achieve hegemony by establishing a lockdown on the poor vote. When the urban and military establishment got rid of him on corruption charges – corruption is illegal in Thailand in the way prostitution is (it really is) – he went into exile but continued to pull the strings. His supporters are called “red shirts” and tend to be peasants from the poor North-East.

Meanwhile the better-connected urbanites (who donned yellow shirts) got back to power in late 2008 by occupying and closing down the international airports, dealing a terrible blow to the tourism industry which is the real mainstay of the economy. You may ask why the representatives of the urban elites were so casual about damaging their own economy in such a way. The answer is that the employees of the tourism industry would be the hardest hit; and they, including the scantily-clad lovelies in the go-go bars, are almost exclusively from the North-East, Thaksin’s power base.

Now Thaksin’s reds are marching on Bangkok claiming it’s their turn again, and demanding the overthrow of the government. But a more ominous factor is beginning to emerge: the monarchy is beginning to get caught up in the turmoil. Until now the monarchy, along with Buddhism, has been the country’s main unifying factor. But, first of all, King Bhumibol at 82 is only a year younger than our own Queen, and his family hasn’t quite the same record of longevity. No-one mentions this, but they’re not stupid. Secondly, the yellow shirts have been so noisy and hyperbolic in their expressions of loyalty to the monarchy (the King himself, with 60 years’ experience of ruling the Thais, has had the sense to keep quiet) that strains of open republicanism are beginning to appear on the red side. In a land where severe penalties are imposed for lèse-majesté, this could get serious. Lord Buddha has so far been unavailable for comment.