Sunday, February 25, 2007

The Breakdown The Big East has gone from being a relatively easy conference to try and predict to being very messy. Villanova continues to hover around .500 in conference which is not a great place to be in the Big East. They have had probably the hardest conference schedule in the Big East, so they have a good excuse. They are still fairly safe for now, and with the games they have left (@UConn, Syracuse), they have a good opportunity to get to 9-7 which would make them a virtual lock for a bid. West Virginia was one of the last teams to make it into the field this week. They were unable to pick up what would have been a nice road win at Providence last week, so now they have little room for error. Their home win over UCLA got them back into the bracket a few weeks ago and is keeping them there for the time being. They have a solid record but a borderline RPI (57). They have a great chance this week to get a resume making road win at Pitt, but should they be unable to win that, all they need is to take care of Cinci at home to get to 9-7. All they would need after that is one Big East Tourney win. Syracuse has won four in a row and already has 9 Big East wins. They are in a similar situation to WVU in that they have a gaudy record with a mediocre RPI (53). They finish up with Georgetown and @'Nova, so we expect them to end up 9-7. Without any marquee OOC wins that won't be enough to send them dancing.

Michigan State moved back into the bracket in a big way. After home wins against Wisconsin and Indiana, they were able to move up to a 6 seed. Illinois took care of business this week and if they can pick up a win in their last conference regular season game @Iowa this week then they can feel a bit more comfortable at 10-6. Purdue was unable to take some pressure off after losing @Iowa this week. They have 2 winnable home games left (Minnesota, Northwestern) which they must have and then one win in the conference tourney should be enough to stamp their ticket.

We went with two teams out of the Horizon for the first time this season. Wright State and Butler ended up tied for first in conference but Wright State won the tie-breaker so they will now have the opportunity to play on their home floor. They just recently beat Butler at home so we like their chances to do it again. Our other conference where we still like a bid to be stolen is the WAC. New Mexico State dropped their first home game of the season to Fresno State but we still like them to come out on top on their home floor next week in the conference tourney.

The Colonial conference wrapped up its regular season this week. The CAA conference tourney is wide open and should be very entertaining. We still like it to be a one bid league with ODU coming out on top, but there are definitely some scenarios that could develop to give the conference two bids. The VCU-Drexel semifinal game (if it happens) would determine who has the best chance to be the second CAA team in if they were to lose in the final to ODU. In the MWC, SDSU continued its home dominance with a blowout win over BYU. Their overall profile is mediocre, but their recent home blowouts of BYU, UNLV, and Air Force have been impressive. They now have an opportunity to finish at least tied for third with Air Force in conference and that, coupled with a MWC tourney championship appearance, would give them an outside shot at an at-large.

We will post another bracket on Thursday or Friday and starting next week we will update the bracket daily if needed.

46 comments:

Hey Bracketology 101 guys (and anyone else that would like to leave a response to this): Consider the following: If after the ACC reg. season is over, and FSU / Clemson / Ga. Tech all end up at 7-9 ( I know the ACC tourney will have some impact on the decision), who would you take? Would you automatically take Clemson and GT over FSU since both teams swept FSU, or would the fact that FSU's 2nd leading scorer Toney Douglas has been out for the last 6 games or so make any difference to the committee? Just trying to see what thoughts might be out there.. really would like to see FSU get in if they finish 7-9.. I think their 2 wins over UF and Duke, plus wins over Providence and Maryland should be enough (not to mention a top 10 SOS in the country)... what does everyone else think?? Thanks for taking the time to read this and give your opinions!! Keep up the great work everyone!

First we will take Clemson out of the discussion. For them to get to 7-9 they will have to win their last 2 which would include a game @VT which is a longshot with the way they are playing. Both FSU and GT have a good chance to get to 7-9 and we expect it.

From there FSU would likely play Clemson in the conference tourney and GT would be playing an ACC bottom feeder. GT's wins are just as impressive as FSU's and they beat the 'Noles twice so FSU would have to win at least one more game then the Yellow Jackets to move ahead of them. But should FSU win their game against Clemson and then lose their next game they will be right on the top of the bubble and either one of the last teams in or last teams out.

Honestly, I think you guys drank the KU kool-aid this week. There is no question they are a good team, but they are NOT a #1 seed. At least not yet. I understand why you moved UNC & Wisconsin down, they have had a bunch of losses recently. However, the SOS for both teams is well ahead of KU. Kansas has 1 TOP 25 win. 1 (at home). UNC has 5. Even Wisconsin has 2.

Don't get me wrong, if KU wins out, they may be a #1 seed, but they are not today.

Profile wise, I think KU is the 4th #2 seed, behind A&M and Georgetown. The three teams have virtually identical RPIs. Georgetown has one extra loss, but the lowest is RPI 33 (ODU). A&M and KU both have a loss around 100 RPI. (LSU and ORU, respectively). RPI top-25 win wise, Georgetown has two RPI top 25 wins (@ Nova, v. Pitt), A&M has @ KU, KU has v. Florida (in November). Again KU has the worst of the group. A&M has the head to head win over KU, and two of KU's losses came to teams Georgetown beat (ORU, DePaul).

If you are saying you think KU will win out and win the Big 12 tourney, giving them a big win streak, A&M could do the same thing, and so could Georgetown in the BE,

Feel free to make a case, but as I see it KU is the 4th #2 seed, and definitely not a #1.

If Kansas State gets 10 conference wins, it would be very surprising if they are left out. Bob Huggins carries a lot of weight. Plus wins over USC & at Texas can't hurt a thing. Why do you guys have K State on the outside of the bracket now?

Arizona's resume makes the PAC 10 look really good. Zona beat several good teams out of conference(Louisville, UNLV, Illinois, Memphis, New Mexico State) but are only 9-7 in conference. East coast fans hate to hear this but the PAC 10 is for real this year. Heck even the last place team Arizona State is very competitive. It is also an indictment of how mediocre the Big 10 is. ASU beat Iowa who has a winning record in the Big 10. Do you guys really think the Big 10 deserves 6 bids? That would be a joke.

Kansas as the #3 overall seed really jumped out at me. They play in the 6th-best conference according to the RPI and they're the #2 team on the weaker side of the conference - they played A&M (loss) and will play Texas at home with no return.

This is a projection/prediction site, so KU might have a case for a 1-seed should they steamroll their remaining opponents, getting revenge against A&M in the process. I just don't think they will do that.

Our thought process on Kansas was as follows. With two straight losses - albeit the last one being by one on the road to the top ranked team in the country - Wisconsin had to fall to the two line. We also couldn't move UNC up to a one with their loss at Maryland. We debated Kansas, Texas A&M, and Georgetown for the last one seed, and went with the Jayhawks for a couple of reasons. Their road to a conference tourney title is easier that Georgetown's. KU probably only has A&M to worry about (a big threat, but it's still just one other team), while Georgtown has a handful of Big East teams that are talented enough (Pitt, Marquette, a hot Louisville team) to take them out. We projected a Kansas win as the most likely scenario and therefore they got the bid. Their profile on paper might not be as strong, but the Fla win is huge, and a Big 12 win over A&M should be enough for them to sneak in as the last one (provided, of course, that UNC doesn't win the ACC title).

Kansas State was discussed long and hard Sunday night, but were ultimately left out because their predicted 10-6 final conference record (we'll say an L at Ok St and a W vs. Oklahoma) would be very inflated. Their only big conference win is Texas (at home), and their OOC resume is weak as well (only one big win vs. USC, losses to New Mexico and Colorado State). Nine of their 10 league wins would have come against non-tourney teams, and that's not good enough for a bid. The only way K State has a good chance at a bid is to win out and to win a game in the Big XII tourney.

Like most people, we are uncomforatble with six bids out of the Big Ten, but right now if things break right, it has a pretty good chance of happening. Illinois and Purdue have almost identical profiles, especially in conference, and for that reason they both got bids this week. Purdue should easily win out to get to 9-7, and if they then win a game (or maybe two) in the Big Ten tourney, they're safe. Illinois obviously has a tough game at Iowa Saturday, but a win would get them to 10-6. They would still need a Big Ten tourney win to feel safe too, but they would look pretty solid. The whole scenario would be the perfect storm for the Big Ten, and other conference tourney upsets could throw off the plan, but six teams is definitely possible. Right now, at least, we like the chances of everything breaking that way.

Georgia Tech is done if they finish 6-10. They could still sneak it at 7-9 if they win a game or two in the ACC tourney, but 6-10 won't get it done.

Syracuse has to split its last two games to have a shot. Both would be huge wins (vs. Georgetown and at Nova) and would help boost a resume that is void of any big OOC wins (their biggest OOC win is Hofstra). They also must win their first round Big East tourney game, which likely will be against St. John's.

Great work as usual. If you aren't too busy could you do a breakdown of resumes comparing Texas Tech and Purdue to FSU and why you chose them over the Noles (with a bunch of teams in between!). FSU and Texas Tech's resumes are almost identical except Texas Tech has the bad losses that FSU doesn't.

As for Purdue... FSU has 3 wins better than Purdue's BEST win (Michigan St.) and another that is pretty much equivalent (Virginia Tech). We also have a marquee road win @Duke, while their best road win came @#167 Northwestern. I could be wrong but I think you're putting too much merit in their likely 9-7 finish in the Big 10. Considering they will play 6 CONFERENCE games against teams ranked #167 or lower , is that really that impressive? They also have a loss against MVC bottom feeder Indiana St. to go along with their loss to #178 Minnesota.

FSU may finish 7-9 in conference but with only 4 games against teams outside of the RPI top 51! Not to mention 4 of the losses came without Toney Douglas, the 2004-2005 SEC rookie of the year, and by far our 2nd most important player. He is expected back by the ACC Tournament if not this weekend @Miami.

Both teams even had a recent 5 game losing streak. Assuming FSU doesn't lose to Miami Saturday I can't see any reason Texas Tech would be ahead of FSU in the pecking order. Is 9-7 in the 6th best conference really better than 7-9 in the BEST conference?

Firstly, Purdue's best wins are Virginia and Indiana, not Michigan State, but I do agree FSU should be in ahead of them, as well as Texas Tech who is 7-7 in the Big 12, which has the #7 conference RPI, and if FSU wins at Miami like they should, they will be 7-9 in the conference with the #1 RPI which, I think, is better. The win over Florida is hardly 'depleted' and at Duke is impressive. Second, I can't rationalize moving Maryland up to a #4 seed from a #9 seed, especially over UVA who swept them. Sure UVA lost at Miami and Maryland beat UNC, but nonetheless UVA is still tied atop the ACC. I think VT at UVA is this week's game to watch, 2 of the 3 teams tied for first in the ACC match up and UVA (15-1 at home, with the only loss by one point to Stanford) looks for revenge for the thrashing they got in Blacksburg.

I was going by the RPI since none of the 3 are even ranked in the AP Top 25, but I guess you could make a case for Indiana or UVA being better wins than Michigan St. The fact that Purdue hasn't beaten a currently ranked team all year is yet another reason they should not even be close to in the field.

A couple things on the FSU-Purdue-Texas Tech debate. There are a million numbers to look at here, and Samenole did a nice job of breaking things down - except for a couple of categories. TT (not FSU) deserves the Top 50 win category edge. Just looking at it seed-wise, TT beat a 2 seed twice (A&M) and a 1 seed once (Kansas). FSU's wins seed-wise are against a 1 (Florida), a 3 (Duke) and the last four (Maryland). TT also deserves the edge for best road win (not a "wash" as Samenole had it). Other than that, the profiles are very similar and FSU is by no means done. As posted earlier, if the Noles win their likely first round ACC tourney game against Clemson and then lose their next game, they will be right on the top of the bubble and either one of the last teams in or last teams out.

The Purdue comparison is also a close one. In Purdue's defense, their R/N record at the moment is 4-9, only slightly worse than FSU's (4-8 with @ Miami left).

If UVA beats VA Tech and Wake this week, will they move up to a 3 seed? The Hoos will be looking for revenge, this time at home, vs. Tech and I see them winning that. Beating Wake isn't unlikely either so they have a good chance. Do you think the Cavs could possibly make a 3 seed if they won those 2 games, as long as they don't blow the ACC tourney?

question for you regarding the missouri valley. If a team like Bradley gets hot and wins it, do they become the fourth team representing the valley? or would creighton/mo state get shafted? is anyone besides so illinois a lock? also, if bradley gets to the championship game of the valley tourney, and loses... do they have a shot at an at-large?

I'm sorry but K State's win at Texas really is not that impressive, as much as we all love Kevin Durant, Texas is truly overated. They had 0 big wins OOC. Their 1 point win against LSU turned out to not be that impressive and they only beat St. John's by 1. Yes, they're 11-3 in conference, but a majority of that comes against the bottom of the conference.

As for Bracketology's logic of TT having more impressive top 50 wins and road wins than FSU is a freakin' joke. Texas A&M is another team who is drastically overated, their best OOC win is against freakin' Auburn, yes they swept Kansas which is impressive, but their record is very inflated considering most of their wins are against drastically inferior opponents...a win at Duke is more impressive than a win at Texas A&M....i'm sorry but winning at Cameron is one of the hardest things to do in the country. Lets face it, Texas A&M will be one of those 2 seeds that just benefits from a extremely weak schedule and ends up losing in the second round, kind of like Ohio St from last year. Texas Tech has 0 big OOC wins, the exact reason that FSU was left out last year.....how can you tell FSU that the reason they didn't get in last year was b/c their OOC schedule was too weak, now this year they go out and play Florida, at Wisc and at Pitt, but now all of a sudden thats not good enough. Its very hypocritical....FSU definitely has an edge simply based on those 3 games, TT plays in a far inferior conference w/0 big OOC wins.....that right there should be the deciding factor until we get to conference tourneys

Corrections:- A&M's best OOC win was against a solid Winthrop team.- A&M didn't sweep Kansas. They won at Kansas though.- Statistically, this season (the committee looks at this year rather than the folklore of Cameron), winning at Cameron is much easier than winning in College Station. They've lost two other games at home besides FSU.- Subjectively speaking, FSU won the Maryland and Duke games when both of those teams were on down-swings.

A&M may be that 2-seed that loses to a 15, you never know, but based on what most people have seen, they are a better team than Duke this season.

Brian Butch's injury - even before it was known that he would miss 4-6 weeks - was on our mind as we figured out the 1 seeds for this past bracket. It was part of the reason we ultimately went with Kansas and Florida over Wisconsin.

Butch or no Butch, though, it's hard to see Wisconsin falling below the 2 line come tourney time (unless they lose to MSU and then lose their first Big Ten tourney game). Their season-long resume up to this point is just too strong.

If Michigan beats OSU, are they in? They really havent beaten anyone good on the road plus their non-conference performance was dreadful. That home loss to bubble team Iowa won't help at all. I am just wondering what you guys think about Michigan's chances.

K State losing at OK State is no surprise. I expected that to happen. But if they beat OU, they will finish at 10-6. I wouldn't be shocked if they got in just because of their high profile coach. Of course, the best thing for K State may be if Texas Tech loses a game or 2 down the stretch to back out of the big dance. Cause we all know that a BCS conference like the Big 12 will get at least 4 teams in. This loss at Ok State doesn't "vindicate" anyone.

1) How much of a joke is it that some people think the big east could get 8 or 9 teams in. That is just ludacris in my mind. They really only have 2 powerhouse teams this year w/Pitt and G-town...so teams are just benefiting from mediocrity across the board, along with the bottom 5 teams that are just awful. Do you agree that 16 teams is way too many for one conference?? It'll be hard to rationalize more teams from the Big East than the ACC or Pac 10....Also, people think 6 will get in from the Big Ten...how is it that the ACC completely dominates the ACC-Big Ten Challenge every year, but the Big Ten consistantly gets the same or more bids than the ACC...I believe the ACC should do away with that challenge, and play the Big East to settle who's the best once and for all.

2) If the Terps are able to win at Cameron tonight and then win at home against N.C. St to finish winning 7 in a row in the conference and then have a very good showing in the ACC Tourney...how high could their seed be and are they a legitimate contender to get to the Final Four??......

Michigan wuld be a very interesting case if they beat OSU. Logic would say you have to put them in the field, but thanks to a pathetic OOC resume (best win was Davidson) and poor road record (3-8), they would still need to avoid a first round Big Ten tourney loss to feel good about their chances.

A scenario where 8 Big East teams gets in seems unlikely right now, and the most likely candidate to find themselves on the outside looking in is West Virginia. The Mountaineers' best conferense win (and only good conference win) is against Villanova and they only have three road wins (Rutgers, Hall, and Duquesne. Their UCLA win is keeping them barely in at the moment, but the way they have played of late, it wouldn't be shocking if they lost their first round Big East tourney game and were left out.

If Maryland wins out, and makes the semis or finals of the ACC tourney (which is very possible), they would crack the 3 line. Calling them a Final Four contender may be premature until the bracket is released and it's known what other top seeds are in their region. They've certianly played well enough, though, to get excited if you're a Terp fan.

First, I agree with the guys here in that I think it's very tough for the Big East to get 8 this year unless West Virginia gets on a roll (but they should have had 9 last year). However, 8 from the Big East (percentage wise) is the same as 6 from the ACC or Big 12. I will give you that the conference isn't as strong as last year, but that's difficult since UConn and Nova were pretty much in the top 3 last year all year long.

Also, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the committee looked at individual teams and didn't give out bids per conference. Does the committee sit down and say the Pac-10 is the best conference this year, they get the most bids?

I'm glad to see that you guys are given the Big 10 its due respect. I think 6 teams will get in, but if Purdue/Illinois square off in the big ten tourney i think the loser may be left out.

Other sites have recently included Drexel (over Purdue) in the bracket and i dont understand it. Drexel has 2 nice wins at Nova and Syracuse. But they lost twice to OD, lost to VCU and split with Hofstra. For a second or third team to come out of a smaller conference i think they must beat the top team in the confererence atleast once. Or have some massive non-conference wins.

Xavier has an excellent chance to get an at-large if they were to fall in the A-10 tournament. The A-10 is down, and on the surface doesn't look like a two-bid league, but Xavier's OOC wins (VCU, Nova, Illinois, Kansas State) are solid and should be enough get them in the field. An outright A-10 title would help their case too, and with UMass playing at St. Joe's Saturday, that outright title is a real possibility.

Anonymous make a great point about Drexel's lack of CAA sucess, and that's part of the reason that ODU has been the lone Colonial team in our bracket for a while. That said, with some other big conference bubble teams sporting less-than impressive resumes and facing possible elimination games against fellow bubble boys in the second round of their conference tournaments, it's very possible that the winner of the potential VCU-Drexel semifinal game gets a bid. With VCU playing the game in its own backyard and not having lost a conference home game all year, they would go into that game as the favorite.

I have to agree with GO TERPS, I find it strange how the ACC is the top conference in the nation but there are three or four other conferences that people talk about receiving more bids.

Someone made the comment about the Big East having 16 teams, and that is why I do not have a problem with them receiving six-seven bids. The fact is though, that it's bulky at the middle. Normally the conference is alot better, but remember, this year UCONN is below their average, DePaul is below their average, Cincinnati who is normally very good is horrible! I don't care how many teams a conference has, that does not make up for having 10-12 teams that are just 'average' or below average.

In addition, a few other things bug me, specifically that the Horizon League might receive two bids and that Purdue is placed above FSU. I won't get into that arguement too much since it has already been brought up (and this is my first post), and I know that this doesn't influence this year, but I would like to remind everyone who FSU was paired up with last year in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Not to mention, FSU has been on the bubble for the past two years, if anything, this should give FSU 'seniority', if that sort of thing really mattered (although it seems to with some teams like Arizona and Texas Tech which are almost always locks just because they have a 'history'; tell that to UCONN!). Finally, the fact of the matter is, if Butler wins the HL tourney 1 team is in from the HL, if Wright State wins there probably still is 1 team. Looking at Butler's schedule, they beat five good teams (4 in the first 2 weeks of the season), played mostly a bunch of chumps, and lost to four teams that are the equivalent to North Florida. Is this really better than a Florida State, a Clemson, a Georgia Tech, a Purdue, or a Texas Tech? It seems to me this is a big waste of a most important seed.

First, the only conference that has a chance to have more bids than the ACC is the Big East, not 3 or 4 other ones.

Second, I'm not sure the ACC is the best conference in the nation.

Butler is in no matter what it does in its conference tourney. You may not like it, but it's true.

It sounds like you do not like bad losses which is understandable. But, I'd like to point out that Virginia and Virginia Tech, who lead the conference that you believe is the best in the country, have lost to Western Michigan, George Washington, Marshall, App State, and Utah.

The Big East, Big Ten, and Big Twelve all have arguments for seven or more bids. I'd also like to mention that Butler, alone, had unfavorable losses to Loyola (Ill), Wright State, Illinois-Chicago, and Indiana State.

Butler's not as safe as everyone seems to think. I know they're 4-1 against the RPI top 50, but their marquee win is against Tennessee on a neutral court. The other 3 were at home. Not to mention, they were all in 2006.

Here are the road/neutral records of the Top 50 teams that they beat at home.Tennessee 5-9Indiana 5-9Notre Dame 4-6Purdue 5-9

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