Australia's 'uncomfortable months' will pass, US Asia expert says

Australia can expect "an uncomfortable few months" in its relations with Indonesia amid revelations it spied on president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's phone calls, says former US diplomat Kurt Campbell.

Dr Campbell, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia until this year and widely credited as driving the Obama administration's pivot to Asia, has described the spying claims and subsequent sharp reaction from Indonesia's political leaders as partly "ritual" but also "significant".

"I'm afraid you're in for a few uncomfortable months in your bilateral relationship," said Dr Campbell, now chairman and CEO of the Asia Group and an international fellow at the Lowy Institute.

"As you've seen, the [Indonesian] foreign minister has been out, some of the prime minister's key aides have castigated Australia.

"I think it will be particularly difficult given how much [Prime Minister Tony] Abbott has made of how much he wants to refashion the relationship with Indonesia.

"You're going to get through this and the relationship will be strong again, but there is a ritual quality that I'm afraid will you have to go through, and very little you can say now or do is going to ease the next couple of months."

Dr Campbell, however, rejected suggestions that friendly countries did not spy on each other, going as far as to say that "the way Australia has played it to date is exactly right".

He said spying was a form of statecraft that allowed allies to better understand what each other was thinking.

I can tell you that some of the most sensitive spying is done by allies and friends.

Asia expert Kurt Campbell

"I can tell you that some of the most sensitive spying is done by allies and friends," he said.

"I travelled to a number of allied countries and we had to be incredibly careful. I think you just have to assume that it's a modern fact of statecraft, and you can't be naive about it and have to appreciate that some of it is actually stabilising - knowing more about how friend and others are thinking about problems is important.

"I would say also, as you think about Australia, some of the most difficult foreign policy changes - terrorist attacks - actually emanated in Indonesia.

"Australia has good cause to understand the delicate dynamics that play out behind the scenes with regard to how Indonesia's thinking about some of those movements and some of the actors inside its country."

'Ritual' outrage 'will pass'

Dr Campbell urged the Australian Government to stay "on message" despite the diplomatic discomfort caused by leaks from former US National Security Agency employee turned whistleblower Edward Snowden.

"I know a bit about this. The United States is going through this on almost a weekly basis lately," he said.

"We will a recent experience with Germany. I think there will be more revelations to come associated with Mr Snowden.

"And so I think the allies just have to expect that this is going to be the order of the day for a substantial period of time ahead."

He pointed to the example of WikiLeaks' release of US diplomatic cables.

"Over the course of the last several years, we've had several examples of these kinds of leaks," he said.

"The truth is, some would say that in a democracy, it's more important how you deal with issues that come into the open than keeping secrets.

"I don't know if I would go that far, but the fact of the matter remains that it is the case that what is going to come out and what has come out is deeply uncomfortable for the United States and for many of our allies that we work closely with."

He said the Indonesia's outrage was unsurprising and that the long-term future of Australian-Indonesian relations would be likely be unaffected.

Their public in a way expects, almost demands, a certain approach publicly, and also expects Australia and the United States and other countries to be sufficiently publicly contrite," he said.

"There is, as I said, a little bit of a ritual quality to this. I think it will be difficult but it will pass."

He continued: "I think there is substantial scope for increasing ties in Defence, in intelligence, an elsewhere. I know that's where the Abbott Government want wants to go. Some of that information is so sensitive you have to have confidence that it won't be used improperly. But ultimately, I think the trajectory for the relationship of Australia and Indonesia is positive."

Dr Campbell is in Australia to deliver the institute's inaugural Owen Harries Lecture.