Since 1987, Brinker Capital has provided investment solutions based on ideas generated from listening to the needs of advisors. From being a pioneer of multi-asset class investments to using behavioral finance to manage the emotions of investing, our disciplined investment approach is the key to helping investors achieve better outcomes.

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Brinker Capital’s Global Investment Strategist, Tim Holland, asks and answers those questions we think will be top of mind for clients as they open their quarterly statements and think back on the quarter that was:

Can this record bull market continue to run?

Will weakness in emerging market equities spark a bear market here at home?

Will the Fed continue to raise rates and what might that mean for the economy?

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

This past week has been a very unsettling time for markets and investors. To help inform conversations, Jeff Raupp, CFA, Brinker Capital’s CIO, recorded a podcast that examines the recent market correction, including the catalyst for the sell-off and where we see the market heading into 2019.

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 24, 2018), Andrew discusses the probability of future Fed rate hikes and the potential impact of the yield curve.

Quick hits:

The more highly anticipated event will be the release of the Beige Book following this weeks meetings, which covers everything discussed and includes the widely followed dot plot.

We’ve been dealing with a very flat yield curve for much of this year.

Everyone is watching closely for the dreaded yield curve inversion, which has been an ominous sign for impending recessions historically.

While the curve remains flat, but positively sloped, and with the weight of the evidence leaning positive, our portfolios remain overweight to equities.

For Andrew’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

This is not a recommendation for Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. These securities are shown for illustrative purposes only.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Just over 10 years ago on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy shocking the global financial markets. In retrospect, the collapse trajectory was there for all to see with the shock being more attributed to people’s reliance on things staying the same than any new data. This clinging to the past was so strong that a postmortem analysis showed that Lehman Brothers employees, the very people who were the insiders to see the company’s problems, were shown to have kept buying stock. Many believed, both insiders and the public, that the stock was a compelling value as they anchored their valuation toward the stock high of $86.18 in February 2007. When the end finally did come for Lehman it was a long time coming based on the data stream but felt abrupt based on our ability to process the new reality. When a character in Ernest Hemingway’s novel “The Sun Also Rises” was asked how he went bankrupt he said, “Two ways, gradually and then suddenly.”

Not all individual stock downturns lead to a rapid collapse or even a permanent lower price range. Still, this anchoring to past prices is prevalent enough for investors to frequently be told to fear “value traps.” A value trap is a stock which looks cheap based on previous stock prices, but an analysis of future prospects show that the underlying stock’s fortunes have significantly and potentially permanently changed for the worse.

The fact that companies’ future prospects are always changing is a sign of a dynamic economy that through creative destruction increasingly improves the products for the consumers of an economy. Much has been made of the disruptive Amazon effect that through making the purchasing of products easier as the one-stop shop for online shopping has crushed traditional brick and mortar businesses and other smaller online retailers. It is bad for those businesses left behind but the consumers win.

This lesson of unreasonably expecting things to remain the same holds meaning outside of just the financial markets. In George Friedman’s 2009 book “The Next 100 Years” he opens by taking a quick survey of the way of things at 20-year intervals starting at 1900. He notes that in 1900, London was the capital of the world and Europe was at peace with great prosperity, in 1920 Europe was torn apart by an agonizing war, in 1940 Germany had reemerged to dominate Europe, in 1960 Germany was crushed and the United States and the Soviet Union were the superpowers, in 1980 the United States had been defeated in war by tiny communist nation North Vietnam showing communism was on the rise, and finally in 2000 the Soviet Union had collapsed with a United States hegemony being the state of the world. If I would take license to write his 2020 view, it would talk of the global uneasiness of a China on the rise to legitimately challenge the United States as an economic and political power.

What is clear is that things change and failing to try to at least look around the next corner is akin to walking backward. Just because you have not walked into a wall yet is a poor reason to expect an unending clear path. Our role as the investors of capital attributes special importance to forward thinking but it is a lesson for all to learn.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

Tim Holland, Brinker Capital’s Global Investment Strategist, discusses the upcoming Congressional mid-term elections, specifically what party will win the House and the Senate, and how markets might respond once the votes are counted.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

The Center for Outcomes, powered by Brinker Capital, has prepared a system to help advisors employ the value of behavioral alpha across all aspects of their work – from business development to client service and retention. To learn more about The Center for Outcomes and Brinker Capital, call us at 800.333.4573.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 30, 2018), Chris discusses the seven bricks that Strategas considers to be the largest in their “wall of worry”.

Quick hits:

Many believe we are witness to one of the most unloved bull markets of all time.

It is important to try and set aside emotion and gut feeling, and instead focus on fundamentals to help guide your decision-making process.

Are there plenty of bricks in the wall to worry about? Yes, but fundamentals remain strong and reinforce our belief that markets still have room to move higher.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

Passwords are like potato chips. You can’t (and shouldn’t) have just one.

A new trend is developing in phishing and email extortion tactics. Attackers are including the potential victims’ passwords in the messages sent. Why would they do this?

If you’re the target of this attack, you’ll typically receive a message from someone claiming they’ve compromised your computer and have obtained a list of your website usernames and passwords. The message will contain a set of credentials to a site you’ve used, which were valid at some point. You’ll also be threatened with some sort of undesirable consequence unless an online payment is made. By including valid credentials in the extortion message, the attacker is hoping to instill fear and doubt in your mind, prompting you to take immediate action.

But how did the attacker obtain your credentials?

When a website is compromised, the attacker typically mines the site for useful information, including the login credentials of the site’s users. The attacker knows that people tend to be lazy when it comes to passwords, and there’s a good chance one site’s credentials will work for other sites the user visits. These collections of stolen usernames and passwords are constantly being bought and sold online, and eventually, make their way into the hands of an extortionist. It’s likely the credentials in the email you receive will have been stolen quite some time ago, and in many cases are no longer valid. If you use the same password for more than one website, it will be impossible for you to determine which of the sites you visit was compromised.

This is why it’s so important to maintain unique passwords for each account you have. Yes, it takes a bit more effort to maintain separate passwords, but the additional protection is well worth the effort.

Tips to protect yourself:

Never use the same password for more than one website. To keep track of multiple passwords, consider storing them in a password-protected spreadsheet.

Change your passwords from time to time. Especially for email accounts, or other accounts which don’t employ multi-factor authentication.

Never use public computers to access sensitive accounts. Even if you direct the browser to not save your credentials, the machine could be compromised in other ways designed to capture your credentials regardless.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor

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Brinker Capital provides this communication as a matter of general information. Portfolio managers at Brinker Capital make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.