15th District is a-changing

As he vies for a fifth term against Democrat Rick Daugherty, Republican Congressman Charlie Dent will likely face some friendly territory.

That’s because of redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of the district’s boundaries.

The district still comprises a majority of Democrats. But political pundits like the Cook Political Report have indicated past voting patterns show that the 15th District has grown more red.

At The Morning Call, we’ve crunched some numbers to show how the 15th District, which will stretch from the Delaware to Susquehanna rivers, will change.

The changes aren’t as dramatic as what happened in the 17th District, but more than a quarter – 27 percent -- of the registered voters live in precincts new to the district.

Those regions – in the rural areas of Lebanon, Dauphin and Berks counties – are dominated by Republicans. Lebanon is 57 Republicans and 30 percent Democrats; Dauphin is 54 percent Republicans and 32 percent Democrats. The 15th District also includes more of Berks County – 45 percent Republicans and 41 percent Democrats.

However, the district lost the Republican dominated precincts in Montgomery County, where 53 percent of registered voters were Republican.

Still, the Democrats still dominate the Lehigh Valley portion of the district. Half of the registered voters in Lehigh and Northampton Counties are Democrats. Republicans make up 34 percent of the voters in Northampton and 35 percent in Lehigh.

So, what does that mean overall about the change?

Very little when it comes to registration. In 2010, 44.2 percent – 193,392 -- were registered Democrats and that grew to 45.4 percent – 202,525 -- under the new district boundaries this year. Republicans went from 39.4 percent -- 172, 204 – to 39.3 percent.

The huge changes, pundits say, come not the party under which voters are registered but what all the registered voters – including Independents, third parties and the unaffiliated – have done once they’ve gotten to the polls.