On this day, they were all big games

Nov 16, 2013

A familiar sight: Wabash with
the Monon Bell. But that only makes them one of 11 playoff-eligible
at-large candidates with one loss, and there are just five at-large
bids and eight bids that aren't automatic.
Wabash athletics photo by Howard Hewitt

If it seemed like everybody in Division III thought their Week
11 game was a big one, that's because, depending on perspective,
every game was.

The games with playoff bids and conference titles on the line we
all knew about. The oldest and most heated rivalries get talked
about regardless of the quality of the participants. But even in
the brand-new rivalries, or the lukewarm ones, or the games between
sub-.500 teams, much was at stake. Any game where a senior took the
field for the final team in his career, as his team played for the
final time in the 2013 was big to that player, plus his teammates,
fans and family.

"Big" depends on perspective, and who can judge us for being a
little self-absorbed when something we've enjoyed so much, whether
for a career or just a fall full of Saturday's, is winding to its
end.

Yet our D-III experience is sometimes so self absorbed, we're
unaware that there are 29 conferences, 244 teams and in the
neighborhood of 20,000 players. Within that group are more
outstanding accomplishments than most of us can count. So while it
doesn't make an accomplishment any less special -- especially from
a particular perspective -- it might mean that something your team
did this Saturday or this season was repeated several times across
the country. And it sometimes is tough to take a step back to see
the bigger picture and realize it.

Which is a long way of me introducing these facts. There are 32
playoff spots, 24 filled by automatic qualifiers. Three go to teams
that weren't in AQ conferences, and the other five are awarded at
large.

Here are the 14 teams that finished the season with one loss, but
aren't headed to the playoffs as one of the 24 conference's
AQs:

From this (although not all the above teams are playoff eligible),
the selection committee must add only eight teams
to the field of 32 that didn't qualify by winning a conference.

So when the official @d3football twitter feed or I stomp on your
dreams of dancing one more week as an at-large playoff invitee,
please don't take it personally. There's just not much room at the
inn for those who aren't conference champions. That's how the AQ
system works.

D-III football is one giant animal. Even with 32 teams in the
playoffs, some pretty darn good ones are going to get left out.
Say, anybody ever proposed a D-III NIT? Last year's Stagg Bowl
runner up St. Thomas would be a pretty good No. 1 seed.

Week 11's snap judgments
We get so caught up in the playoff talk that those who aren't in
the mix might have their accomplishments overlooked. Here are some
things I noticed in Week 11 (and then we'll get back to playoff
talk):

• Austin is a program so far off the radar that if you Google
"Austin football," it returns results about University of Texas
(which is in Austin). On Saturday, the Kangaroos beat Trinity for
the first time since 1993, and it was a stomping. (Or maybe a
hopping? Eh, never mind). The Tigers managed only 22 yards rushing,
and Austin finished 5-5 after an 0-4 start. I love when a team
doesn't give up.

• Speaking of which, only Wesley had played a tougher
schedule this season than Alma. But the Scots, who lost a couple
heartbreakers along the way, go into the offseason with smiles on
their faces after beating Trine, 31-13. As a reminder, here's the
strength of schedule stats.

• Still speaking of which, Misericordia got the first
win in program history, although it was somewhat expected. After 19
losses in a row, including one by a point earlier this season
against King's, the Cougars scored a 63-40 win over FDU-Florham,
which lost all nine MAC games this season after starting with a win
against TCNJ.

• Albion/Hope and Hampden-Sydney/Randolph-Macon put
forth dramatic finishes worthy of winner-take-all games, and John
Carroll/Mount Union wasn't bad either. The lone dud among the four
AQ-on-the-line games? Endicott's 24-0 win over Salve Regina, in
which Drew Frenette threw three third-quarter touchdown passes, and
the Seahawks couldn't get anything going despite gaining 325 total
yards and only having two turnovers.

• The Dutchman's Shoes game was decided by an RPI
touchdown in the final three minutes. With a 41-yard touchdown pass
with 1:08 left, Cortland State sent Ithaca into the playoffs on a
losing note, winning 28-24. Hampden-Sydney stopped Randolph-Macon
on a one and a half-yard two-point conversion attempt to preserve a
28-26 win. Wabash, Monmouth and Thomas More rolled, sure, but it
was a pretty decent year for the big D-III rivalry games.

• John Carroll gave up 42 to Mount Union and still
finished the season allowing only 75 points in 10 games. Let that
sink in a second. Monster defense UW-Whitewater allowed 80 in 10
games, Linfield 99 in nine and Amherst 94 in eight. And that's it
for your under-100 club. The Blue Streaks' 7.5 points per game is
silly good, since the national average per team per game going into
Week 11 was 26.66 points per game. The ASC had a comical 34.29
average, while the UAA, at 19.29, edged the NESCAC for most
defensively inclined conference.

• Hat tip to Pacific, for finishing 7-3 in its fourth
year, including pushing national No. 2 to the brink in a 28-22
loss.

• Mount Ida scored in the first five minutes and its D
held the rest of the way in a 6-0 win against Husson. Macalaster
scored in the first eight minutes and its D held the rest of the
way in a 7-0 win over Hamline.

• Week 11 is always full of surprises, and this year it
featured St. Norbert losing, 31-3, but backing into a playoff spot
when Illinois College also lost about an hour later, 23-21 to
Carroll. Other teams going into the postseason coming off a loss:
Maryville, (45-38 to Huntingdon), Ithaca (28-24 to Cortland State),
Lebanon Valley (40-25 to Albright), Gallaudet (7-6 to
SUNY-Maritime) and perhaps Millsaps (49-30 to Rhodes). You can
expect all of these teams to be on the road in Round 1. Probably at
home for Round 2, but crazier things have happened.

One last thing ... here are those Pool B and C tables from
midweek, adjusted to reflect today's results and SoS numbers. Also,
at the behest of longtime friend of the site Ron Boerger, I'll mix
the Pool B overflow teams in in Pool C to reflect the reality that
they also have a chance to be discussed as at-large teams if not
taken among the Pool B three:

The Pool B picture

I'll just post the facts here for you to analyze (Pat's also
posting his projections tonight). This is basically so you, the
reader, can look at more or less what the committee is going to
consider. Even if you don't agree with whichever way they
eventually go, you'll understand why.

There are five primary playoff criteria: Record against regional
opponents, strength of schedule, in-region head-to-head,
results against in-region common opponents, and in-region results
against regionally ranked opponents. There are also
seven and a half secondary critieria, which really only come into
play when a decision isn't clear from the primary.

This list is not in order of how I expect teams to be selected,
it's just the data. Also, keep in mind that the committee will have
a fresh set of regional rankings, but all we have to go on right
now are the ones from Wednesday.

Rhodes beating Millsaps really evened the scales in this group,
and to be honest, the cross-play between all these teams went from
a help to what may be a hindrance -- too much data to work with.
Wash. U beat Rhodes, who beat Millsaps, but Millsaps has nine wins
to their eight. Was the loss enough to help Texas Lutheran, even
with that massive outlier of an SoS?

The Pool C picture

The only losses by a Pool C contenders were in head-to-head
games in the OAC and WIAC. John Carroll was 9-0 and remains in the
mix with the loss.

Same disclaimer as above; Pay no mind to the order, just the
data.

Team/criteria

W-L

H2h

CO

RRO

SOS

John Carroll

9-1

1-1

.520

Pacific Lutheran

8-1

UW-EC (W 21-19)

0-1

.549

Illinois Wesleyan

9-1

2-1

.499

UW-Platteville

9-1

1-1

.477

Wabash

9-1

0-1

.503

Thomas More

9-1

W&J (L 45-21)

0-1

.487

St. John Fisher

8-2

W&J (W 42-21)

2-1

.575

St. Thomas

8-2

UW-EC (W 52-7)

1-2

.504

Chapman

8-1

.444

Greenville

9-1

.435

The strength of schedule gap closed between the top contenders
after Week 11. I added the two two-loss teams I think could get
into the discussion -- Wheaton, Concordia-Moorhead and others were
stuck behind too many other teams. Chapman and Greenville are in
the chart not because they have a chance at getting selected, but
to show you that committees are looking at more than just one-loss
records. On the rest of the criteria, everyone else in this chart
stacks up better.

SJFC and UST get a help with their common opponents, but I still
think John Carroll, Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Platteville and Pacific
Lutheran are pretty safe bets. After that, for the fifth spot, you
can make a case for Wabash, St. John Fisher or maybe one of the
others. You decide.

Adam Turer graduated in 2006 from Washington and Lee University, where he was a two-year starter at free safety. He lives in Cincinnati and covers area high school sports in addition to his full-time job as an attorney. Adam has contributed to D3football.com since 2007 and is in his first season writing Around the Nation after spending four seasons writing Around the Mid-Atlantic.