Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Of course, they may not be aware of that. The electors of Paris, Marseilles and Lyons probably thought that as they cast their votes yesterday they were sending Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy into a presidential run-off in a fortnight’s time. But what do they know. These Frenchies are so bloody insular after all.

What we are witnessing across the Channel is no distant campaign. Apparently it's nothing less than resurgence of the European Left. “Faced with a lost decade of austerity-induced economic stagnation and social unrest, the fightback needs to start, and the French elections will offer a clear indication of whether the European left is bouncing back or in possibly terminal decline,” wrote the New Statesman last week. “The stakes are high. If Hollande and the Parti Socialiste cannot win when the political odds are stacked in their favour, then the prospects for their sister-parties here and elsewhere will look increasingly bleak.”

Phew. Well then let’s raise a glass to Comrade Hollande. Labour may lose Glasgow, and Ken Livingstone the nation’s capital, but so long as there’s a moderate socialist sleeping in the Elysée, the British Left can relax. We’re back boys.

The nervous excitement – somewhat tempered by the gains for Marine Le Pen’s Front National and the complexities of the two-legged French voting system – accompanying last night’s narrow first-round victory for Hollande was both predictable and understandable. Over the past couple of years Europe’s progressives have been taking a hiding, with Britain, Spain and Portugal all ejecting centre-Left administrations. No one should begrudge us a few rousing choruses of La Marseillaise and the Internationale.

But when it comes to learning lessons, you can bet your bottom euro the Left will pick the wrong ones. And so it will be in a fortnight’s time.

The temptation is just too great; the parallels too neat. Clever but unflamboyant former political adviser challenges family member and wins contentious leadership election. Standing against a slick but arrogant conservative who is seen to be on the side of a wealthy elite, he runs on a ticket of investment in public services, a high top rate of taxation and stimulus over deficit reduction. And triumphs.

“It’s going to be a nightmare,” one shadow cabinet insider told me last week, “Hollande is going to win, the nutters are going to scream 'we told you so' and we’re going to be right back where we started”.

The fears are well grounded. Sunday’s result was “a reaction against austerity", Hollande's campaign manager told the press last night. It’s a cry that will be echoed again and again by the hardline deficit deniers over the coming weeks, as the Flat Earthers morph into French Earthers.

Nor will the clamour be confined to fresh demands for a more aggressive push for "un projet B" on the economy. Labour’s taxation hawks will seize on Hollande’s controversial, not to say staggering, 75 per cent top rate on earnings over £800,000, and attempt to lock in Ed Miliband and Ed Balls on retention of 50p. His pledge to recruit 60,000 new teachers will also test their commitment to “touch choices” over public spending.

Meanwhile, those elements of Hollande’s victory that do not fit the narrative will be conveniently ignored. The most significant of which is, of course, that the French voters are punishing the party they blame for running their economy onto the rocks. In France that was the UMP; in Britain it remains Labour. Then there is the presidential nature of the contest. Some aides close to the Labour leader are said to be taking comfort from the manner in which the understated Hollande has come through this gladiatorial contest. Substance can trump style, they are whispering. Which is of course true, but David Cameron, for all his faults, is no Nicolas Sarkozy. And I suspect it is unlikely we’ll be treated to a revealing video of Samantha Cameron whispering to her “little cauliflower” this side of 2015.

And there is one other small but significant difference. The French presidential election is actually being held in France. Paris is not Pinner. Basildon, sadly, is not Bordeaux. There are thousands of social, cultural, economic and political differences which have influenced, and will influence, the voters of France over the next two weeks, and that will have absolutely no bearing at all on how we cast out votes here in three years time.

But comparisons will be drawn all the same. The "read across" will still be read. No Left-winger is an island. Not after the kicking we’ve been getting over the past few years. Vive la similitude! Vive la France!