Rangers Rumors

11:41am: Lynn will receive a $4MM signing bonus, along with salaries of $8MM, $10MM, and $8MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The deal also includes a one-time $100K assignment bonus in the event that Lynn is shipped out west (to the Angels, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Padres, Athletics, Giants, or Mariners).

DECEMBER 12: The Rangers are nearing a deal with veteran free agent hurler Lance Lynn, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). It’s said to be a rather surprising three-year arrangement with a strong $30MM guarantee, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the financial details on Twitter.

Last winter, Lynn seemed in line for a significant, long-term deal before he settled for a pillow contract with the Twins. After turning in middling results in the ensuing campaign, it did not seem likely he’d get a terribly lengthy arrangement this time around.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM pact. That felt terribly rich to anyone that failed to look beneath his 4.77 ERA from 2018. But Lynn did show some intriguing underlying numbers, particularly after landing with the Yankees in a mid-season swap. To be sure, Lynn continued to post suboptimal bottom-line numbers in New York. But he racked up a 61:14 K/BB ratio in his 54 1/3 innings, a notable improvement in that regard over his career numbers that was perhaps linked to some changes in his pitch usage patterns. Lynn also drew grounders at a career-best 49.7% rate over the course of the season.

There’s also a broader track record to consider. The veteran righty had long turned in impressive campaigns with the Cardinals, never once averaging over four earned per nine in his six seasons in St. Louis and wrapping up his time there with a 3.38 ERA in nearly one thousand frames. Lynn was even typically effective upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2017. But ERA estimators did not buy into that version of the hurler (4.82 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA), which made it somewhat unsurprising to see his market collapse in the ensuing winter.

In any event, the market clearly valued Lynn’s impressive late showing with the Yanks this time around, which helps even things out for the former first overall draft pick. It’s the second consecutive season in which the Rangers have given out a reasonably aggressive three-year contract for a starting pitcher, with last winter’s Mike Minor deal working out well thus far.

Of course, the Texas staff still faces questions, but this move changes the complexion of the unit. In addition to Minor and now Lynn, the Rangers will feature TJ-returnees Drew Smyly and Edinson Volquez. All of those four veterans have had notable successes at times, but each has also endured health issues and performance lapses in the recent past. The Rangers could compete the remaining job among younger pitchers, or might continue dabbling with the utilization of an opener.

The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.

The Rangers announced this morning that they’ve re-signed right-hander Matt Bush and left-hander Zac Curtis to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. Also joining the Rangers organization on minor league deals that include Major League Spring Training invites are right-hander (and MLBTR contributor) Tim Dillard and infielder Chase d’Arnaud. Bush and Curtis were non-tendered by the Rangers on Nov. 30.

Bush, 33, is already known to be out for at least the first half of the 2019 season after undergoing September surgery to repair a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. It should be noted that Bush did not have Tommy John surgery, though the exact nature of the procedure he underwent was never announced. The most notable alternative to Tommy John surgery is “primary repair” surgery, made most famous by former Cardinals and Royals right-hander Seth Maness.

Regardless of the specifics, the Rangers again indicated in today’s release that Bush could be ready to pitch in July 2019. He was a useful reliever for the Texas organization from 2016-17 but struggled to a 4.70 ERA with career-worst K/9 (7.4) and BB/9 (5.5) marks in 23 innings of work this past season.

Curtis, 26, was an August waiver claim by the Rangers out of the Phillies organization but didn’t fare well in his minimal time in Texas. In just 6 2/3 innings, the lefty was tagged for seven earned runs on six hits and a staggering nine walks. Curtis did punch out eight hitters in that time, but control has been a considerable problem for him throughout his Major League tenure. In 38 career innings, he’s issued 34 free passes, hit another six batters and thrown four wild pitches (two in that tiny sample with the Rangers). That said, it’s a small sample of big league innings, and Curtis has thrown quite well in the upper minors, where he’s averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings with much better control in both Double-A and Triple-A.

For the 35-year-old Dillard, today’s announcement marks the end of an era. A former 34th-round draft pick back in 2002, Dillard has spent his entire career in the Brewers system and reached the Majors on four separate occasions. Though he enjoyed solid numbers in 2011-12 (65 2/3 innings, 7.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.25 ERA, 3.51 FIP), he hasn’t been back to the Majors since. That hasn’t stopped Dillard from developing a cult following through his social media antics, his guest writing here on MLBTR and his impressive bilingual lip-syncing abilities.

A veteran of 12 seasons at the Triple-A level, Dillard will join the Rangers in hopes of returning to the Majors after an absence of more than a half decade. His numbers took a turn for the worse after the Brewers’ Triple-A club moved from Nashville to Colorado Springs, but he’ll be back in Nashville once again if he opens the season in Triple-A, following some offseason realignment of Triple-A franchises.

As for d’Arnaud, he’ll turn 32 in January and vie for a utility role in spring — not dissimilar from the one he had with the Giants in 2018. Last season in San Francisco, d’Arnaud hit .215/.253/.366 with three homers in an even 100 trips to the plate. He’s spent parts of seven seasons in the Majors and is a career .222/.273/.316 hitter in 599 plate appearances. The former fourth-round pick has played every position on the diamond except catcher and will give the organization some infield depth — an area of perhaps increased importance as the Rangers near a deal to allow recent waiver claim Carlos Asuajeto play in Korea.

DEC. 16: Asuaje is “expected” to become a member of the Lotte Giants when they finalize a buyout from the Rangers, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.

DEC. 14: Infielder Carlos Asuaje is nearing agreement on a deal that’ll bring him to the Korea Baseball Organization, according to Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link). Terms of the prospective deal are not known.

Presumably, the Rangers are on board with this move. The Texas club paid $50K to claim Asuaje off waivers from the Padres just a few days ago, but it wasn’t entirely clear what role he’d play given the existing slate of roster pieces. Perhaps this move will allow the club to clear a tidy financial profit.

Now 27 years of age, Asuaje has seen action in parts of three MLB campaigns. He’s a cumulative .240/.312/.329 hitter in 586 plate appearances, with significant platoon splits. Asuaje is considered a solid defender at second base, but isn’t an option at short.

Needless to say, that’s not the profile of a regular major league asset, though certainly Asuaje could still carve out a steady role at the game’s highest level. For now, though, he’ll take the bigger payday and steadier work on offer in the KBO.

In the event the Rangers trade left-hander Mike Minor, who has drawn interest from at least one team, they’d “likely have to add another veteran” starter in response, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. The Rangers don’t want to overexpose their young pitchers at the major league level in 2019, per Grant, and losing their 2018 innings leader in Minor without replacing him would make that task more difficult. Texas did sign Lance Lynn this week, but he’d be the only strong bet to eat innings on a Minor-less staff. While Drew Smyly and Edinson Volquez have done it in the past, the former hasn’t taken a major league mound since 2016, and the latter last pitched in MLB in July 2017 – a month before he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Likewise, the Rangers plan to acquire bullpen help prior to spring training, according to general manager Jon Daniels (via Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram). The unit just lost its innings king from last season, Alex Claudio, whom the Rangers traded to the Brewers earlier in the week. Prior to that, the Rangers did reunite with Jesse Chavez via the open market, but they also saw Tony Barnette and the non-tendered Matt Bush become free agents.

SATURDAY: Texas is willing to trade Minor for “at least a couple” of Philadelphia’s top pitching prospects, TR Sullivan of MLB.com hears. If the Phillies were to acquire Minor, they’d likely use him as a starter, per Lauber.

Left-handed pitching has been one of several areas of focus for the Philadelphia organization this winter, with the club reportedly pursuing a variety of southpaw starters and relievers. As Lauber notes, it’s not clear whether the club would view Minor as a rotation or pen piece. Certainly, it’s possible that much of the appeal lies in his ability to occupy either role.

Minor signed on with the Texas organization last winter, wooed in part by the opportunity to return to a starting role after a nice bounceback campaign with the Royals as a reliever. He scored a $28MM deal over three seasons, with $19MM still to go over the coming two campaigns. That contract also includes limited no-trade protection, but it’s not clear if the Phillies are on his 10-team list — or, if so, whether that’d be expected to pose a barrier in talks.

Soon to turn 31 years of age, Minor turned in 157 innings of 4.18 ERA ball last year for the Rangers. That made him a useful asset, but perhaps not one that’d represent a major upgrade to a Phillies rotation that was mostly successful in 2018. Minor was not able to maintain all of the strides he had shown in 2017 when tasked with moving through orders multiple times.

Minor still threw harder (93.2 mph average fastball) than he did in his heyday with the Braves, but didn’t come close to matching the 95 mph heat he delivered in K.C. Meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate dropped from 11.8% in 2017 to 9.9% last year. It’s notable, too, that Minor has been much more effective against left-handed hitters.

The Phillies, who are said to be engaged on both Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, could see Minor as a possible multi-inning reliever and/or high-leverage lefty specialist. That he could always slide into the rotation, thus buttressing the team’s depth, is an appealing aspect that also distinguishes him from those other pitchers. Plus, Minor’s contract won’t hang a big number on the payroll for a lengthy term.

All of those concepts, of course, are also known to the Rangers and other possible suitors. It stands to reason that the Texas organization, which is presently working to re-tool its roster but has continued to invest in veteran pitching, would only be willing to move Minor if it can add truly worthwhile pieces in return.

Free agent starter Mike Fiers is being courted by multiple clubs, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Among those with interest are the Reds, Giants, Rangers and Nationals, none of whom should surprise given their collective desire for more pitching. Fiers, 33, had his best year as a pro in 2018, working to a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 30 starts for Detroit and Oakland. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9. He also threw more sliders, a pitch he has steadily worked into his repertoire since 2015, which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. Park factors for Comerica Park and the Oakland Coliseum definitely worked in his favor, so it’s fair to wonder how his stuff will fare in the bandboxes of Cincinnati, Texas, and Washington, especially considering increased use of his slider corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%). Fiers has been homer prone in the past, though it’s a delicate balancing act for the righty, as he has generally been more effective when keeping the ball in the air – a strategy that obviously holds more water in Oakland than it would in, say, Cincinnati.

The opposite can be said ofAnibal Sanchez, coming off a surprising comeback with the Atlanta Braves driven in part by a return to the wormburning ways of his early career. His groundball rate (45 GB%) returned to career levels after dipping below 40% for a two-year stretch that just so happened to produce career-high ERAs. Atlanta has interest in bringing the righty back for 2019, per Morosi (via Twitter), but they’re not the only club with interest. Given their similar price points, Sanchez and Fiers likely share suitors, though the Reds and Nationals have shown the most interest in Sanchez thus far. A year and a half older than Fiers, Sanchez will be 35 by Opening Day.

It’s a little surprising not to see the Milwaukee Brewers listed as pursuers for the starters above, but a slow burn winter isn’t uncommon for the Brew Crew. They have made one notable move, sending a Competitive Balance draft pick to Texas for funky left-hander Alex Claudio. Interestingly, Claudio’s sidelong delivery may be more than an incidental quirk for the Brewers, per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. The Brewers now boast a relatively substantial stable of minor leaguers who rely on deception and unique throwing motions, enough of a sample to presume an organizational focus, or at least curiosity. Given the stirring ascendancy of Josh Hader, himself a non-traditional thrower, it’s interesting to see the Brewers potentially exploring a system-wide extrapolation of Hader’s success. From a player valuation standpoint, the one-for-one swap with Texas is noteworthy because of what it means about Milwaukee’s evaluation of college hurlers. The pick being sent to Texas likely lands somewhere in the 40s, where advanced college relievers are often available. Meanwhile, Claudio’s price is rising as a first-time arbitration player. One view supposes the cost-conscious Brewers must view the prospects available in that spot as less-than. The other view, of course, is that this deal is not a wholesale denunciation of the draft class, rather Milwaukee just likes Claudio and views his major league experience as present-day value for a team with legitimate pennant aspirations in 2019.

Continuing with the Padres, they’ve reached out to the Rangers regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, but the chances of a deal happening are “faint,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic relays (subscription required). Padres general manager A.J. Preller is a fan of Profar from his days as an executive with the Rangers. However, he’s not having much luck prying the 25-year-old Profar and his two remaining seasons of team control from Texas.

The Brewers have officially struck a deal with the Rangers to acquire lefty Alex Claudio, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitterlinks). Texas will receive Milwaukee’s competitive balance pick in the deal, which will deliver the club a draft choice in the range of the 40th overall selection (with the final order yet to be fixed).

Claudio, 26, has made the most of his arsenal with impeccable command and an uncanny ability to generate groundballs and limit dingers. Over his five seasons of MLB action, the southpaw has averaged 6.2 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a hefty 62.5% groundball rate.

While he never seemed likely to hang onto the closer’s role he briefly occupied in 2017, Claudio has mostly been an effective relief arm. His lifetime 3.20 ERA, though, reflects a string of productive seasons that was followed by a 4.48 mark in 2018.

The Brewers will hope that most recent set of results was unduly influenced by a .366 batting average on balls in play. Claudio did allow more hard contact than usual (36.0%), but Statcast also felt he was unfortunate to carry a .352 wOBA, with the system crediting him with a .315 xwOBA. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Claudio managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate in 2018.

Though the Milwaukee relief corps already features one of the game’s most exciting lefties in Josh Hader, he’s utilized as a high-leverage asset. Claudio will presumably serve in more of a specialist role. He has held opposing lefties to a .191/.220/.278 slash over his career.

It seems the Rangers and Mets have chatted about possible matches over the past few days, with pitching the topic of conversation. MLB.com’s TR Sullivan hints via Twitter that the Texas club would be interested in young hurlers such as David Peterson and Anthony Kay. But the Mets evidently would only be interested in parting with such long-term assets if the Rangers put closer Jose Leclerc on the table. It’s worth noting that, having now already made two significant relief acquisitions, the Mets may be less inclined to do what’d be needed to get the Rangers to cough up the controllable and flame-throwing Leclerc.