January 12, 2018

Analysts see NM as likely to flip in next gubernatorial race

Two election analysts say that New Mexico’s gubernatorial election is among the most-likely in the nation to switch parties.

Politicoand The Washington Post each recently highlighted the top ten gubernatorial races to watch. New Mexico ranked second for Politico and first for the Post.

Incumbent governor Susana Martinez, a Republican, is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term. She leaves office with low popularity and her party faces a headwind in the first general elections after the election of Donald Trump.

The Post noted that New Mexico voters favored Hillary Clinton by nearly 10 points. The race, the paper says, could very well come down to two U.S. Representatives—Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Steve Pearce.

Pearce faces no competition in the Republican primary as of yet, while Lujan Grisham is joined by three other announced candidates.

Politico says the state is “trending blue with a large Hispanic population.” The paper also mentions Lujan Girsham as a “front-runner” in the Democratic primary.

The online outlet says Democrats consider the seat “one of their best gubernatorial pickup opportunities in 2018.”

Each of New Mexico’s last three governors have served two terms, and alternated parties, from Republican Gary Johnson to Democrat Bill Richardson and then back to the Republican Party with Martinez.

Republicans have had a lot of electoral success when it comes to governors in the last eight years.

Nationwide, Republicans hold 26 seats that are up for election this year, while Democrats hold just nine. Last year, Democrats held the governor’s mansion in Virginia, while flipping it in New Jersey, perhaps presaging a better 2018 for the party.

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Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.