Opinion Contributor

Why Todd Akin could win

As I predicted when Rep. Todd Akin’s ignorant comments first broke, the anti-gambling zealot was going to call the party’s bluff. And despite the fact that the Republican Party’s reversal is an embarrassing sign of the party’s captivity to its lunatic fringe, yes, East Coast establishment, he could actually win.

Before explaining why, it’s worth noting that the NRSC’s about-face is also a story of personal ambition: Sen. John Cornyn understands that he’ll never become Whip (or ultimately, Majority Leader) if he blows his second chance to retake the chamber. With Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Connecticut especially difficult in a presidential year; North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana unexpectedly difficult in a presidential year; and Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada all trending poorly, Cornyn realizes that any Senate majority goes through Missouri And given the specter of Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, and Christine O’Donnell, Cornyn also knows that there won’t be much forgiveness in his caucus if he blows it again courtesy of a nominee who could’ve been avoided had the primary field been limited to two.

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So, how could Akin win? Since 2008, Missouri has swung as hard to the right as has any state in the country. First there are long term demographic shifts at play - not exactly a new trend, but an accelerating one. In a nutshell, ascendant conservative Republican legislators have repelled gays, immigrants, and young, mobile progressives, just as the continuing growth of Branson, Mo. (the live music capital of the world) and the conservative Springfield metro area have attracted hordes of conservative evangelicals and retirees. It was a vicious cycle: the more retrograde the political debate, the more progressives left Missouri or avoided it in the first place. And the more progressives disappeared, the more conservative the electorate became, and the more reactionary the debate. The burgeoning strength of grassroots conservatives in Missouri became apparent in 2010 when Republicans rode the wave to legislative majorities of 106-57 and 26-8 in the state House and Senate, respectively.

Not only is Southern Missouri strongly evangelical, but much of the heavily Catholic St. Louis metro area is strongly pro-life as well. And socio-political life in much of the region - especially the conservative areas of South St. Louis city and County - revolves around the parish church. This gives the anti-abortion movement a rare one-two. rural-urban punch, something it lacks in most states outside the South, and explains how Rick Santorum walloped Mitt Romney 55 percent to 25 percent in the Missouri presidential primary. It also explains how someone with Akin’s primitive views could possibly remain competitive.

That’s left Missouri in a place where the Democrats who succeed statewide are those like Governor Jay Nixon, who spoke out against the “Obamacare” mandate and steadfastly distance themselves from ideological national politics. Despite her smarts, rural roots, and down-home candor, Claire McCaskill - the first woman senator to support candidate Obama in 2007 - has had a much tougher time getting the distance necessary to remain popular among independent voters.

It's true and so sad about Missouri as far as I am concerned. I live in KC and this town was so Democratic when we had the hub of Truck Lines and Teamsters in our town. We had the Communicatons industry here also with SWBT and Western Electric, AT&T, all Union and Democratic strong. Then Reagan was President and deregulation hit and that all went away from KC. Now the state is run by Republicans who put that evil Limbaugh's statue in our Capitol building. It will be a sad day for Missouri if Akin wins.

Anyone who would vote for this guy must be in need of a mental evaluation! As a woman I'm astounded that any woman could vote for such a ridiculous out of touch man as Todd Akin. Something must be in the water in Missouri is all I can say!

The author is wrong. MO demographics havent changed. In fact MO today is 83% white, 13% black and 4% other, much like it was in 1980 and what the USA looked like in 1980. The sharp demographic changes that have occurred since 1990, have passed MO by. As the DEM party has moved left, MO dems have dumped the party at the national level and started voting GOP. It is the USA that has changed, MO has remained the same.

Without the demographic changes, Obama would never have won in 2008 even with Iraq and the Economic Meltdown. MO 's results show that McCain likely would have won by about 1%.

"This post was deleted for profanity. (?) I've quoted the Bible. When did the Bible become profane??? Politico...hey, are you serious??? You found something profane in....the BIBLE???? I've been looking, and I really can't find anything profane here. Are you actually suggesting that quoting the Bible is off limits???

Here's one of their rules: 6. "Stay on topic. We don't mind slight conversational drift, but don't hijack a thread altogether. For example, a post about Obama's recent foreign policy proposals doesn't belong in a story about Joe Biden's latest gaffe. If you want to talk about the upcoming football game or your favorite recipe, please start a new thread."

This Double-Standard is GLARING...

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Spam has NOTHING TO DO WITH FREE SPEECH, infact it is the complete opposite and POLITICO should be ASSHAMED.

The only good thing about Todd Akin would be if he could win this election. Just about any Republican is better than just about every democrat.

As for being embarrassed, the democrats have a whole slew of morons who they continuously vote for and they don't seem to be embarrassed. Maxine Waters, Al "Steward Smalley" Frankin and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are three that spring to mind.

As long as Todd Akin is willing to be fiscally responsible I don't care what he thinks about abortion, because abortion is not going to be outlawed any time soon.

I remember visiting a gay friend who lived in the Cherry Hills (I think) district of Denver back in the mid-90s. Nice area round the university. At dinner that night Jim said that while this area was liberal and gay-friendly, he had to be careful in other parts of town. As for a lot of the Colorado country side - forget it!

Sounds like Colorado has changed quite a bit, but Missouri remains the same- or gets worse.

Look who he is running against. Claire McCrackhead is stupid and incompetent. If you put McCrackhead, Squaw Liawatha from the Land of Teddy the Swimmer, Babs Boxer, Diane Frankenstein, Patty Murray and Nancy Pelosi in a room - there would not be enough brain energy to light a one watt light bulb. There women are all fortunate to have been born to wealthy families. Had they not been born to wealthy families, all would be waiting tables in a truck stop. They would only be doing the waitress gig because the are all too butt ugly to dance on a stripper pole.

All the comments in favor of Atkins go like this...we forgive you. Really? How does one debate with someone who is totally wrong, in denial, thinks that the year is 1812 and not 2012. How does one compete with a bunch of people who hold others in contempt but they never do anything wrong. Last I checked greed was a sin. But it's only a sin if it's someone else that does it. Evangelicals...you do realize that your all going to hell right? I agree with the post that all of you people should stay in MO. You can have all the racist people in Wisconsin too...take them please they are a burden on the rest of us. Take Walker too he can join you in hell.