Detailed standings at the all-star break

A couple of times a week, I download a bunch of baseball stats into Excel and generate my own standings table. Since we’re at the official All-Star break thingie, I thought I’d inflict my standings format on you:

Not that big a deal, really. You’ve got your wins and losses, temperature (based on the Bill James formula that measures how hot a team is–room temperature is “normal”), runs scored and allowed, pythagorean wins (based on runs scored and allowed), the team’s record in close games (those decided by one or two runs) and Win Probability Added attributed to the offense, starting pitchers and relievers. Your standard sabermetric stuff, but stuff that isn’t typically listed together.

These are all macro-level numbers, but you can use them to see what’s going on. The Orioles have substantially beat their pythagorean record by winning close games (hence, the outrageous WPA posted by the bullpen). But they’re kind of cold right now, and that particular ship appears to be sinking. The Dodgers are even colder, despite leading the National League West. Their starters haven’t contributed a lot, though they’re still the best in the West.

Can the Pirates keep it up? They’re the hottest team in baseball right now, in first place to boot. But their bullpen has the third-highest total in the majors and they’ve had a fine record in close games. They’re one of the best stories in the league right now, but the signs point to danger ahead.

The Phillies? In last place. Cold, cold. The most dramatic offense in the majors belongs to the Mets (comebacks!) but they also have one of the worst bullpens. The Marlins are about even in close games, but five games ahead of their pythagorean record. That implies that they’ve lost their blowout games. Actually (looking it up), it’s true! The Marlins are 3-13 in games decided by five more more runs.

The Rangers’ bullpen has been wildly good, but Texas hasn’t won more than their share of close games. What’s up with that? Oakland’s starters have contributed more to their WPA than anyone else. The White Sox are solidly in first place, but are the Tigers stirring? Their temperature is higher than it’s been since mid-April. And check out the difference in WPA between the Twins’ starters and relievers.

If you’d like, find your own stories in the numbers. And let’s play ball.

Interesting to me that among teams with 4 or more difference between their pythagorean record and their actual W-L record there isn’t a very strong correlation between that result and the bullpen WPA. I thought that bullpen WPA would explain more of that difference, but it’s really just one component. For a team such as MIA, it’s clutch hitting apparently.