An analysis of the demand for primary care physicians in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, medical service area

An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Rural Development
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
Oklahoma State University
Oklahoma Office of Rural Health
Rural Health Policy & Research Center
Oklahoma State University
May 2010 AE-10010
An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Brian E. Whitacre, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083; FAX 405-744-9835
Lara Brooks, Assistant Extension State Specialist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083
Gerald A. Doeksen, Regents Professor and Extension Economist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083
Aubie Keesee - Hughes County Extension Director, Holdenville
(405) 379-5470
Jack Frye - District Rural Development Specialist, Ada
(580) 332-4100
Corie Kaiser, Health Consultant, Oklahoma Center for Rural Health, Oklahoma City
405-840-6505
Val Schott - Director, Oklahoma Center for Rural Health, Oklahoma City
405-840-6505
Rural Development
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
Oklahoma State University
Oklahoma Office of Rural Health
Center for Rural Health
Oklahoma State University
May 20101
An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Introduction
This report will examine the need for primary care physicians in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area. Primary care physicians include internal medicine physicians, family practitioners, obstetrics-gynecologists, and pediatricians. Specifically, the study will:
1. Determine the medical service area and population;
2. Estimate primary care physician office visits; and
3. Estimate the total demand for primary care physicians in the medical service area.
No recommendations will be made. The information included in this report is designed to assist local decision-makers in assessing the need and potential for primary care physician services.
Determining Need for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
In order to estimate the number of visits to primary care physicians in Wetumka, the medical service area was delineated as shown in Figure 1. To determine the medical service area, a number of factors were taken into consideration, including the proximity of physician practices in nearby cities and the travel distances faced by residents of nearby communities. In particular, existing physician practices in the surrounding communities, (Holdenville, Seminole, Ada, McAlester, and Okemah) likely draw residents of those nearby communities. Therefore, the primary medical service area for Wetumka includes Wetumka, Dustin, and Lamar while the secondary medical service area is comprised of Holdenville, Okemah, and Weleetka, since there is the possibility that some individuals in these towns will choose to go to Wetumka for their physician needs. The 2009 estimated population of the primary medical service area was 3,094 2
as shown in Table 1. The 2009 estimated secondary medical area population totals to 15,828. This yields a total population of 18,922 for both the primary and secondary
service areas.
Hospital
County
Number of Beds
Holdenville General Hospital
Hughes
25
Prague Community Hospital
Lincoln
25
EPIC Medical Center
McIntosh
33
Creek Nation Community Hospital
Okfuskee
25
Henryetta Medical Center
Okmulgee
41
Okmulgee Memorial Hospital
Okmulgee
66
McAlester Regional Health Center
Pittsburg
171
Valley View Regional Hospital
Pontotoc
156
Solara Hospital Shawnee
Pottawatomie
34
Unity Health Center
Pottawatomie
114
Figure 1
Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Area
Secondary Service Area
Primary Service Area 3
Table 1
Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Area Population by Zip Code
Estimated 2009 Population
Totals
Primary Medical Service Area
74883, Wetumka
2,001
74839, Dustin
832
74850, Lamar
261
3,094
Secondary Medical Service Area
74848, Holdenville
8,232
74859, Okemah
5,421
74880, Weleetka
2,175
15,828
Medical Service Area Total
18,922
Source: ESRI 2009 Community Sourcebook of Zip Code Demographics, 23rd ed., ESRI Business Solutions
The number of physician office visits generated in the Wetumka, Oklahoma service area was estimated using the service area population data and research on the number of annual physician office visits for a specified age group [1, 2, 3]. Age group breakouts (by gender) and their corresponding number of annual physician office visits are presented in Table 2. For instance, for males under age 15, the average number of physician office visits is 2.6 visits per year [3]. Similar estimates are applied to other age groups to derive the total number of 4
physician office visits occurring in the Wetumka medical service area. Residents in the primary medical service area were estimated to make 9,760 total physician office visits per year, while residents of the secondary medical service area were estimated to visit physicians 50,724 times annually (Table 2). Of these total physician office visits, recent data indicates that 58.3 percent will be made to physicians active in primary patient care while the remainder will be made to specialists [3]. Using the data presented in Table 2, the primary medical service area will generate 5,690 primary care physician visits (58.3% x 9,760), and the secondary medical service area will generate 29,572 visits (58.3% x 50,724) yielding a total of 35,262 local primary care physician visits per year for the total medical service area.
The total number of primary care physician office visits given various usage rates is presented in Table 3 for the Wetumka medical service area. If there is a 90 percent usage of Wetumka primary care physicians by residents of the primary medical service area and a 15 to 20 percent usage rate from residents in the secondary service area, an estimated 9,557 to 11,035 primary care physician office visits will be made annually in the Wetumka medical service area. The national average for the number of annual office visits to each primary care physician is 4,870 [4]. Therefore, Wetumka needs an estimated 1.96 primary care physicians at a 90 percent primary medical service area usage rate coupled with a 15 percent usage rate from the secondary medical service area (9,557/4,870 = 1.9624). By expanding the secondary usage rate to 20 percent, the need becomes 2.3 total primary care physicians (11,035/4,870 = 2.266). Higher usage levels would indicate that more physicians could be supported, while lower usage levels would indicate fewer physicians could be supported.
All assumptions and local conditions, including the actual usage levels in the primary and secondary medical service areas must be taken into consideration by decision-makers before determining if additional physicians could successfully locate in Wetumka, Oklahoma. Some 5
Wetumka residents may be hesitant to leave their current physician, even if they are in another town. Further, the current number of existing primary care physicians is not included in this analysis. Any evaluation of the relative shortage or surplus of primary care physicians must include details about the current levels of practicing physicians. Again, primary care physicians include the physician practices of internal medicine, pediatrics, family medicine, and OB-GYN. All of these types of physicians should be considered when analyzing the usage levels in the medical service area.
Summary
The analysis above presented the methodology and results of estimating the demand for primary care physicians in Wetumka, Oklahoma. The results suggest that, given a 90% primary service area usage rate and a 20% secondary service area usage rate, an estimated 2.3 primary care physicians can be supported in the Wetumka area. The actual number of physicians that the Wetumka medical service area can support will vary based on the usage rates depicted in Table 3. Estimates of these usage rates should be used in conjunction with the current status of the primary care industry in Wetumka to determine the next steps for the community.
Many assumptions have been made in this analysis. These include items that may change, such as the population of the service area or service area delineation. For example, the service area depicted here may change due to the exit or entry of physicians from nearby communities. If this does occur, revised estimates of physician office visits should be made. The number of existing primary care physicians is not addressed in this study. A close examination of current practicing primary care physicians will be imperative to accurately assess whether or not the current population base can in fact support additional primary care physicians. 6
All assumptions should be closely examined by local decision-makers to verify that they reflect local conditions. If additional local data are available, they should be included to derive the most realistic conclusion possible for the current situation. If further analysis is needed, contact your county extension office listed on the title page of this document.7
Table 2
Annual Primary Care Physician Office Visits Generated in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Areas
PRIMARY MEDICAL SERVICE AREA
Male
Female
2009
Visit
2009
Visit
Total
Age
Population
Rate1
Visits
Population
Rate1
Visits
Visits
Under 15
326
2.6
847
313
2.6
815
1,661
15-24
238
1.1
262
213
2.4
512
773
25-44
405
1.6
648
402
3.2
1,285
1,933
45-64
381
3
1,142
400
3.9
1,560
2,702
65-74
102
5.5
563
120
6.0
721
1,284
75+
74
7.1
523
121
7.3
885
1,407
Total
1,525
3,983
1,569
5,777
9,760
Primary Medical Service Area - Local Primary Care Physician Office Visits Per Year:
5,690
SECONDARY MEDICAL SERVICE AREA
Male
Female
2009
Visit
2009
Visit
Total
Age
Population
Rate1
Visits
Population
Rate1
Visits
Visits
Under 15
1,666
2.6
4,331
1,603
2.6
4,167
8,498
15-24
1,216
1.1
1,338
1,090
2.4
2,617
3,955
25-44
2,070
1.6
3,313
2,054
3.2
6,574
9,887
45-64
1,947
3
5,841
2,046
3.9
7,979
13,820
65-74
524
6.2
3,246
615
6.7
4,119
7,365
75+
377
7.1
2,674
620
7.3
4,525
7,199
Total
7,800
20,743
8,028
29,982
50,724
Secondary Medical Service Area - Local Primary Care Physician Office Visits Per Year:
29,572
Source: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center of Health Statistics, "National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2006 Summary," No. 3, August, 2008
8
Primary Care Physician Office Visits Given Usage
By Local Residents in Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Areas
Usage by Residents of Primary Service Area
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Usage by Residents of Secondary Service Area
5%
5,462
5,746
6,031
6,315
6,600
6,884
7,168
10%
6,940
7,225
7,509
7,794
8,078
8,363
8,647
15%
8,419
8,703
8,988
9,272
9,557
9,841
10,126
20%
9,897
10,182
10,466
10,751
11,035
11,320
11,604
25%
11,376
11,660
11,945
12,229
12,514
12,798
13,083
30%
12,855
13,139
13,424
13,708
13,993
14,277
14,562
35%
14,333
14,618
14,902
15,187
15,471
15,756
16,040
40%
15,812
16,096
16,381
16,665
16,950
17,234
17,519
45%
17,290
17,575
17,859
18,144
18,428
18,713
18,997
50%
18,769
19,054
19,338
19,623
19,907
20,192
20,476
If 90% primary medical service area and 15 to 20% secondary medical service area, then the usage would be:
9,557 to 11,035 total primary care physician office visits
for an estimated 1.776 to 2.103 Total Primary Care Physicians
Based on 4,870 average annual primary care office visits per physician practice in Oklahoma [4] 9
References
[1] “Family Medicine – A Systematic Approach to the Planning and Development of a Community Practice,” Doeksen, G., Miller, K.A., Shelton, P.J., and Miller, D.A., University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 1990.
[2] "Internal Medicine - A Systematic Approach to the Planning and Development of a Community Practice - A Step-by-Step Guide," Miller, K.A., Doeksen, G., Miller, D., Campbell, J., and Shelton, P.J., University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 1993.
[3] U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center of Health Statistics, "National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2006 Summary," No. 3, August, 2008.
[4] Physician Socioeconomic Statistics. American Medical Association, Center for Health Policy Research. Eds Wassenaar, JD, and SL Thran. 2003. American Medical Association: United States.
[4] ESRI 2009 Community Sourcebook of Zip Code Demographics, 23rd ed., ESRI Business Solutions.

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An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Rural Development
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
Oklahoma State University
Oklahoma Office of Rural Health
Rural Health Policy & Research Center
Oklahoma State University
May 2010 AE-10010
An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Brian E. Whitacre, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083; FAX 405-744-9835
Lara Brooks, Assistant Extension State Specialist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083
Gerald A. Doeksen, Regents Professor and Extension Economist, OSU, Stillwater
405-744-6083
Aubie Keesee - Hughes County Extension Director, Holdenville
(405) 379-5470
Jack Frye - District Rural Development Specialist, Ada
(580) 332-4100
Corie Kaiser, Health Consultant, Oklahoma Center for Rural Health, Oklahoma City
405-840-6505
Val Schott - Director, Oklahoma Center for Rural Health, Oklahoma City
405-840-6505
Rural Development
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
Oklahoma State University
Oklahoma Office of Rural Health
Center for Rural Health
Oklahoma State University
May 20101
An Analysis of the Demand for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
Introduction
This report will examine the need for primary care physicians in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area. Primary care physicians include internal medicine physicians, family practitioners, obstetrics-gynecologists, and pediatricians. Specifically, the study will:
1. Determine the medical service area and population;
2. Estimate primary care physician office visits; and
3. Estimate the total demand for primary care physicians in the medical service area.
No recommendations will be made. The information included in this report is designed to assist local decision-makers in assessing the need and potential for primary care physician services.
Determining Need for Primary Care Physicians
in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Area
In order to estimate the number of visits to primary care physicians in Wetumka, the medical service area was delineated as shown in Figure 1. To determine the medical service area, a number of factors were taken into consideration, including the proximity of physician practices in nearby cities and the travel distances faced by residents of nearby communities. In particular, existing physician practices in the surrounding communities, (Holdenville, Seminole, Ada, McAlester, and Okemah) likely draw residents of those nearby communities. Therefore, the primary medical service area for Wetumka includes Wetumka, Dustin, and Lamar while the secondary medical service area is comprised of Holdenville, Okemah, and Weleetka, since there is the possibility that some individuals in these towns will choose to go to Wetumka for their physician needs. The 2009 estimated population of the primary medical service area was 3,094 2
as shown in Table 1. The 2009 estimated secondary medical area population totals to 15,828. This yields a total population of 18,922 for both the primary and secondary
service areas.
Hospital
County
Number of Beds
Holdenville General Hospital
Hughes
25
Prague Community Hospital
Lincoln
25
EPIC Medical Center
McIntosh
33
Creek Nation Community Hospital
Okfuskee
25
Henryetta Medical Center
Okmulgee
41
Okmulgee Memorial Hospital
Okmulgee
66
McAlester Regional Health Center
Pittsburg
171
Valley View Regional Hospital
Pontotoc
156
Solara Hospital Shawnee
Pottawatomie
34
Unity Health Center
Pottawatomie
114
Figure 1
Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Area
Secondary Service Area
Primary Service Area 3
Table 1
Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Area Population by Zip Code
Estimated 2009 Population
Totals
Primary Medical Service Area
74883, Wetumka
2,001
74839, Dustin
832
74850, Lamar
261
3,094
Secondary Medical Service Area
74848, Holdenville
8,232
74859, Okemah
5,421
74880, Weleetka
2,175
15,828
Medical Service Area Total
18,922
Source: ESRI 2009 Community Sourcebook of Zip Code Demographics, 23rd ed., ESRI Business Solutions
The number of physician office visits generated in the Wetumka, Oklahoma service area was estimated using the service area population data and research on the number of annual physician office visits for a specified age group [1, 2, 3]. Age group breakouts (by gender) and their corresponding number of annual physician office visits are presented in Table 2. For instance, for males under age 15, the average number of physician office visits is 2.6 visits per year [3]. Similar estimates are applied to other age groups to derive the total number of 4
physician office visits occurring in the Wetumka medical service area. Residents in the primary medical service area were estimated to make 9,760 total physician office visits per year, while residents of the secondary medical service area were estimated to visit physicians 50,724 times annually (Table 2). Of these total physician office visits, recent data indicates that 58.3 percent will be made to physicians active in primary patient care while the remainder will be made to specialists [3]. Using the data presented in Table 2, the primary medical service area will generate 5,690 primary care physician visits (58.3% x 9,760), and the secondary medical service area will generate 29,572 visits (58.3% x 50,724) yielding a total of 35,262 local primary care physician visits per year for the total medical service area.
The total number of primary care physician office visits given various usage rates is presented in Table 3 for the Wetumka medical service area. If there is a 90 percent usage of Wetumka primary care physicians by residents of the primary medical service area and a 15 to 20 percent usage rate from residents in the secondary service area, an estimated 9,557 to 11,035 primary care physician office visits will be made annually in the Wetumka medical service area. The national average for the number of annual office visits to each primary care physician is 4,870 [4]. Therefore, Wetumka needs an estimated 1.96 primary care physicians at a 90 percent primary medical service area usage rate coupled with a 15 percent usage rate from the secondary medical service area (9,557/4,870 = 1.9624). By expanding the secondary usage rate to 20 percent, the need becomes 2.3 total primary care physicians (11,035/4,870 = 2.266). Higher usage levels would indicate that more physicians could be supported, while lower usage levels would indicate fewer physicians could be supported.
All assumptions and local conditions, including the actual usage levels in the primary and secondary medical service areas must be taken into consideration by decision-makers before determining if additional physicians could successfully locate in Wetumka, Oklahoma. Some 5
Wetumka residents may be hesitant to leave their current physician, even if they are in another town. Further, the current number of existing primary care physicians is not included in this analysis. Any evaluation of the relative shortage or surplus of primary care physicians must include details about the current levels of practicing physicians. Again, primary care physicians include the physician practices of internal medicine, pediatrics, family medicine, and OB-GYN. All of these types of physicians should be considered when analyzing the usage levels in the medical service area.
Summary
The analysis above presented the methodology and results of estimating the demand for primary care physicians in Wetumka, Oklahoma. The results suggest that, given a 90% primary service area usage rate and a 20% secondary service area usage rate, an estimated 2.3 primary care physicians can be supported in the Wetumka area. The actual number of physicians that the Wetumka medical service area can support will vary based on the usage rates depicted in Table 3. Estimates of these usage rates should be used in conjunction with the current status of the primary care industry in Wetumka to determine the next steps for the community.
Many assumptions have been made in this analysis. These include items that may change, such as the population of the service area or service area delineation. For example, the service area depicted here may change due to the exit or entry of physicians from nearby communities. If this does occur, revised estimates of physician office visits should be made. The number of existing primary care physicians is not addressed in this study. A close examination of current practicing primary care physicians will be imperative to accurately assess whether or not the current population base can in fact support additional primary care physicians. 6
All assumptions should be closely examined by local decision-makers to verify that they reflect local conditions. If additional local data are available, they should be included to derive the most realistic conclusion possible for the current situation. If further analysis is needed, contact your county extension office listed on the title page of this document.7
Table 2
Annual Primary Care Physician Office Visits Generated in the Wetumka, Oklahoma, Medical Service Areas
PRIMARY MEDICAL SERVICE AREA
Male
Female
2009
Visit
2009
Visit
Total
Age
Population
Rate1
Visits
Population
Rate1
Visits
Visits
Under 15
326
2.6
847
313
2.6
815
1,661
15-24
238
1.1
262
213
2.4
512
773
25-44
405
1.6
648
402
3.2
1,285
1,933
45-64
381
3
1,142
400
3.9
1,560
2,702
65-74
102
5.5
563
120
6.0
721
1,284
75+
74
7.1
523
121
7.3
885
1,407
Total
1,525
3,983
1,569
5,777
9,760
Primary Medical Service Area - Local Primary Care Physician Office Visits Per Year:
5,690
SECONDARY MEDICAL SERVICE AREA
Male
Female
2009
Visit
2009
Visit
Total
Age
Population
Rate1
Visits
Population
Rate1
Visits
Visits
Under 15
1,666
2.6
4,331
1,603
2.6
4,167
8,498
15-24
1,216
1.1
1,338
1,090
2.4
2,617
3,955
25-44
2,070
1.6
3,313
2,054
3.2
6,574
9,887
45-64
1,947
3
5,841
2,046
3.9
7,979
13,820
65-74
524
6.2
3,246
615
6.7
4,119
7,365
75+
377
7.1
2,674
620
7.3
4,525
7,199
Total
7,800
20,743
8,028
29,982
50,724
Secondary Medical Service Area - Local Primary Care Physician Office Visits Per Year:
29,572
Source: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center of Health Statistics, "National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2006 Summary," No. 3, August, 2008
8
Primary Care Physician Office Visits Given Usage
By Local Residents in Wetumka, Oklahoma Medical Service Areas
Usage by Residents of Primary Service Area
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Usage by Residents of Secondary Service Area
5%
5,462
5,746
6,031
6,315
6,600
6,884
7,168
10%
6,940
7,225
7,509
7,794
8,078
8,363
8,647
15%
8,419
8,703
8,988
9,272
9,557
9,841
10,126
20%
9,897
10,182
10,466
10,751
11,035
11,320
11,604
25%
11,376
11,660
11,945
12,229
12,514
12,798
13,083
30%
12,855
13,139
13,424
13,708
13,993
14,277
14,562
35%
14,333
14,618
14,902
15,187
15,471
15,756
16,040
40%
15,812
16,096
16,381
16,665
16,950
17,234
17,519
45%
17,290
17,575
17,859
18,144
18,428
18,713
18,997
50%
18,769
19,054
19,338
19,623
19,907
20,192
20,476
If 90% primary medical service area and 15 to 20% secondary medical service area, then the usage would be:
9,557 to 11,035 total primary care physician office visits
for an estimated 1.776 to 2.103 Total Primary Care Physicians
Based on 4,870 average annual primary care office visits per physician practice in Oklahoma [4] 9
References
[1] “Family Medicine – A Systematic Approach to the Planning and Development of a Community Practice,” Doeksen, G., Miller, K.A., Shelton, P.J., and Miller, D.A., University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 1990.
[2] "Internal Medicine - A Systematic Approach to the Planning and Development of a Community Practice - A Step-by-Step Guide," Miller, K.A., Doeksen, G., Miller, D., Campbell, J., and Shelton, P.J., University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 1993.
[3] U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center of Health Statistics, "National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2006 Summary," No. 3, August, 2008.
[4] Physician Socioeconomic Statistics. American Medical Association, Center for Health Policy Research. Eds Wassenaar, JD, and SL Thran. 2003. American Medical Association: United States.
[4] ESRI 2009 Community Sourcebook of Zip Code Demographics, 23rd ed., ESRI Business Solutions.