Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

By garylezak, on October 7th, 2018

Good morning bloggers,

The fourth band of rain and thunderstorms from this current set up and storm moved through overnight into early this morning. The rainfall total at KCI Airport is now up to close to 3″ of rain already and there there are three more days left for the main storm system to produce more bands of rain.

As you can see, as I was preparing to head to the airport, there was a well defined break in the rain. Now, this is a moving target, so let’s see how the morning goes. There will likely be a break by around peak tailgating time. New bands of rain are to the south, however. And, how many times did we say that in the past year. NONE! Welcome to the new LRC.

The main storm comes out Tuesday, and this is when there is a severe weather risk in our area:

Tropical Storm Michael is forming in the northern Caribbean Sea this morning. Michael is now caught in the new LRC, as it began organizing in the past few days in the old LRC. This system will be fascinating to watch as it tracks into the hot spot predicted by Weather2020 for this hurricane season. Weather2020 put a press release out in May with the main point being that Florida has a 90% chance of a land falling hurricane this season. It came close to verifying when Gordon formed, as predicted 8 months in advance, and fell just 4 miles per hour short of being a hurricane tracking just west of the Florida Panhandle. The Florida Panhandle still had the largest impacts from that system. Fort Walton Beach was our target city for a land falling hurricane, based on our proprietary weather prediction system, and it will be interesting to see how close this system comes to our target specific location. Michael likely will become a strengthening hurricane and it is targeting Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast.

The above map shows the latest GFS model showing the Florida Panhandle landfall. While this is going on, take a look at the bigger picture:

This map above shows Michael, now inland by Thursday morning, and Sergio approaching Baja. Sergio needs to be monitored closely as well, as it may interact with a storm moving across the western United States and have impacts on the southern and central plains. It now appears that the two systems will not join forces, and we just need to keep monitoring closely. Here is the latest:

GFS Model Valid Friday Morning:

In the past two years, the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index) has not been a factor, since storm systems have not targeted KC for a very long time. Well, I am leaving this morning for Vegas, arriving in time for the Chiefs game. I come back later in the week, and it does look like I will miss three days of thunderstorms. Of course, you know I will be monitoring closely. Have a great Sunday. Go Chiefs. And, thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

1 comment to Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

I guess the current issue with the models is how slow or fast it gets to the panhandle. If it doesn’t run up there quickly, some think it could approach 100 mph at landfall. Probably a tall order, but you never know.