National Energy Policy

Transcription

1 National Energy Policy Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group May 2001

2 Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group America must have an energy policy that plans for the future, but meets the needs of today. I believe we can develop our natural resources and protect our environment. President George W. Bush

5 Members of the National Energy Policy Development Group DICK CHENEY The Vice President COLIN L. POWELL The Secretary of State PAUL O NEILL The Secretary of the Treasury GALE NORTON The Secretary of the Interior ANN M. VENEMAN The Secretary of Agriculture DONALD L. EVANS The Secretary of Commerce NORMAN Y. MINETA The Secretary of Transportation SPENCER ABRAHAM The Secretary of Energy JOE M. ALLBAUGH The Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency CHRISTINE TODD WHITMAN The Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency JOSHUA B. BOLTEN The Assistant to the President and Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy MITCHELL E. DANIELS The Director of the Office of Management and Budget LAWRENCE B. LINDSEY The Assistant to the President for Economic Policy RUBEN BARRALES Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Intergovernmental Affairs Executive Director: Andrew D. Lundquist

6 Contents Taking Stock Energy Challenges Facing the United States Striking Home The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses Protecting America s Environment Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment Using Energy Wisely Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency Energy for a New Century Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies Nature s Power Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy America s Energy Infrastructure A Comprehensive Delivery System 8 Strengthening Global Alliances Enhancing National Energy Security and International Relationships Appendix One Summary of Report Recommendations Appendix Two Glossary

7 Overview Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future (Quadrillion Btus) In his second week in office, President George W. Bush established the National Energy Policy Development Group, directing it to develop a national energy policy designed to help the private sector, and, as necessary and appropriate, State and local governments, promote dependable, affordable, and environmentally sound production and distribution of energy for the future. This Overview sets forth the National Energy Policy Development (NEPD) Group s findings and key recommendations for a National Energy Policy. Figure 1 Growth in U.S. Energy Consumption Is Outpacing Production Energy Consumption Projected Shortfall Energy Production at Growth Rates Over the next 20 years, growth in U.S. energy consumption will increasingly outpace U.S. energy production, if production only grows at the rate of the last 10 years. Sources: Sandia National Laboratories and U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. America in the year 2001 faces the most serious energy shortage since the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The effects are already being felt nationwide. Many families face energy bills two to three times higher than they were a year ago. Millions of Americans find themselves dealing with rolling blackouts or brownouts; some employers must lay off workers or curtail production to absorb the rising cost of energy. Drivers across America are paying higher and higher gasoline prices. Californians have felt these problems most acutely. California actually began the 1990s with a surplus of electricity generating capacity. Yet despite an economic boom, a rapidly growing population, and a corresponding increase in energy needs, California did not add a single new major electric power plant during the 1990s. The result is a demand for electricity that greatly succeeds the amount available. A fundamental imbalance between supply and demand defines our nation s energy crisis. As the chart illustrates, if energy production increases at the same rate as during the last decade our projected energy needs will far outstrip expected levels of production. This imbalance, if allowed to continue, will inevitably undermine our economy, our standard of living, and our national security. But it is not beyond our power to correct. America leads the world in scientific achievement, technical skill, and entrepreneurial drive. Within our country are abundant natural resources, unrivaled technology, and unlimited human creativity. With forward-looking leadership and sensible policies, we can meet our fu- viii NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

8 America s expanding economy, growing population, and rising standard of living will be sustained by our unmatched technological know-how. ture energy demands and promote energy conservation, and do so in environmentally responsible ways that set a standard for the world. The Challenge America s energy challenge begins with our expanding economy, growing population, and rising standard of living. Our prosperity and way of life are sustained by energy use. America has the technological know-how and environmentally sound 21 st century technologies needed to meet the principal energy challenges we face: promoting energy conservation, repairing and modernizing our energy infrastructure, and increasing our energy supplies in ways that protect and improve the environment. Meeting each of these challenges is critical to expanding our economy, meeting the needs of a growing population, and raising the American standard of living. We are already working to meet the first challenge: using energy more wisely. Dramatic technological advances in energy efficiency have enabled us to make great strides in conservation, from the operation of farms and factories to the construction of buildings and automobiles. New technology allows us to go about our lives and work with less cost, less effort, and less burden on the natural environment. While such advances cannot alone solve America s energy problems, they can and will continue to play an important role in our energy future. The second challenge is to repair and expand our energy infrastructure. Our current, outdated network of electric generators, transmission lines, pipelines, and refineries that convert raw materials into usable fuel has been allowed to deteriorate. Oil pipelines and refining capacity are in need of repair and expansion. Not a single major oil refinery has been built in the United States in nearly a generation, causing the kind of bottlenecks that lead to sudden spikes in the price of gasoline. Natural gas distribution, likewise, is hindered by an aging and inadequate network of pipelines. To match supply and demand will require some 38,000 miles of new gas pipelines, along with 255,000 miles of distribution lines. Similarly, an antiquated and inadequate transmission grid prevents us from routing electricity over long distances and thereby avoiding regional blackouts, such as California s. America must have an energy policy that plans for the future, but meets the needs of today. I believe we can develop our natural resources and protect our environment. President George W. Bush Overview Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future ix

9 Increasing energy supplies while protecting the environment is the third challenge. Even with successful conservation efforts, America will need more energy. Renewable and alternative fuels offer hope for America s energy future. But they supply only a small fraction of present energy needs. The day they fulfill the bulk of our needs is still years away. Until that day comes, we must continue meeting the nation s energy requirements by the means available to us. Estimates indicate that over the next 20 years, U.S. oil consumption will increase by 33 percent, natural gas consumption by well over 50 percent, and demand for electricity will rise by 45 percent. If America s energy production grows at the same rate as it did in the 1990s we will face an ever-increasing gap. Increases on this scale will require preparation and action today. Yet America has not been bringing on line the necessary supplies and infrastructure. Extraordinary advances in technology have transformed energy exploration and production. Yet we produce 39 percent less oil today than we did in 1970, leaving us ever more reliant on foreign suppliers. On our present course, America 20 years from now will import nearly two of every three barrels of oil a condition of increased dependency on foreign powers that do not always have America s interests at heart. Our increasing demand for natural gas one of the cleanest forms of energy far exceeds the current rate of production. We should reconsider any regulatory restrictions that do not take technological advances into account. Figure 2 U.S. Oil Consumption Will Continue to Exceed Production (Millions of Barrels per Day) 30 Figure 3 U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Is Outpacing Production (Trillion Cubic Feet) Oil Consumption 35 Natural Gas Consumption Projected Shortfall 15 Projected Shortfall Natural Gas Production at Growth Rates Oil Field Production at Growth Rates Over the next 20 years, U.S. oil consumption will grow by over 6 million barrels per day. If U.S. oil production follows the same historical pattern of the last 10 years, it will decline by 1.5 million barrels per day. To meet U.S. oil demand, oil and product imports would have to grow by a combined 7.5 million barrels per day. In 2020, U.S. oil production would supply less than 30 percent of U.S. oil chart needs. 1 overview Sources: Sandia National Laboratories and U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Over the next 20 years, U.S. natural gas consumption will grow by over 50 percent. At the same time, U.S. natural gas production will grow by only 14 percent, if it grows at the rate of the last 10 years. Sources: Sandia National Laboratories and U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. chart 1 x NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

10 We have a similar opportunity to increase our supplies of electricity. To meet projected demand over the next two decades, America must have in place between 1,300 and 1,900 new electric plants. Much of this new generation will be fueled by natural gas. However, existing and new technologies offer us the opportunity to expand nuclear generation as well. Nuclear power today accounts for 20 percent of our country s electricity. This power source, which causes no greenhouse gas emissions, can play an expanding part in our energy future. The recommendations of this report address the energy challenges facing America. Taken together, they offer the thorough and responsible energy plan our nation has long needed. Components of the National Energy Policy The National Energy Policy we propose follows three basic principles: The Policy is a long-term, comprehensive strategy. Our energy crisis has been years in the making, and will take years to put fully behind us. Modernize Conservation Americans share the goal of energy conservation. The best way of meeting this goal is to increase energy efficiency by applying new technology raising productivity, reducing waste, and trimming costs. In addition, it holds out great hope for improving the quality of the environment. American families, communities, and businesses all depend upon reliable and affordable energy services for their well being and safety. From transportation to communication, from air conditioning to lighting, energy is critical to nearly everything we do in life and work. Public policy can and should encourage energy conservation. Over the past three decades, America has made impressive gains in energy efficiency. Today s automobiles, for example, use about 60 percent of the gasoline they Figure 4 U.S. Economy is More Energy Efficient (Energy Intensity) Primary Energy Use Quadrillion Btus 180 Here we aim to continue a path of uninterrupted progress in many fields New technologies are proving that we can save energy without sacrificing our standard of living. And we re going to encourage it in every way possible. Vice President Richard B. Cheney The Policy will advance new, environmentally friendly technologies to increase energy supplies and encourage cleaner, more efficient energy use Energy Use at Constant 1972 E/GDP The Policy seeks to raise the living standards of the American people, recognizing that to do so our country must fully integrate its energy, environmental, and economic policies Actual Energy Use Applying these principles, we urge action to meet five specific national goals. America must modernize conservation, modernize our energy infrastructure, increase energy supplies, accelerate the protection and improvement of the environment, and increase our nation s energy security Improvements in energy efficiency since the 1970s have had a major impact in meeting national energy needs relative to new supply. If the intensity of U.S. energy use had remained constant since 1972, consumption would have been about 70 quadrillion Btus (74 percent) higher in 1999 than it actually was. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Overview Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future xi

11 For the electricity we need, we must be ambitious. Transmission grids stand in need of repair, upgrading, and expansion.... If we put these connections in place, we ll go a long way toward avoiding future blackouts. Vice President Richard B. Cheney did in 1972, while new refrigerators require just one-third the electricity they did 30 years ago. As a result, since 1973, the U.S. economy has grown by 126 percent, while energy use has increased by only 30 percent. In the 1990s alone, manufacturing output expanded by 41 percent, while industrial electricity consumption grew by only 11 percent. We must build on this progress and strengthen America s commitment to energy efficiency and conservation. The National Energy Policy builds on our nation s successful track record and will promote further improvements in the productive and efficient use of energy. This report includes recommendations to: Direct federal agencies to take appropriate actions to responsibly conserve energy use at their facilities, especially during periods of peak demand in regions where electricity shortages are possible, and to report to the President on actions taken. Increase funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development programs that are performance-based and cost-shared. Create an income tax credit for the purchase of hybrid and fuel cell vehicles to promote fuel-efficient vehicles. Extend the Department of Energy s Energy Star efficiency program to include schools, retail buildings, health care facilities, and homes and extend the Energy Star labeling program to additional products and appliances. Fund the federal government s Intelligent Transportation Systems program, the fuel cell powered transit bus program, and the Clean Buses program. Provide a tax incentive and streamline permitting to accelerate the development of clean Combined Heat and Power technology. Direct the Secretary of Transportation to review and provide recommendations on establishing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards with due consideration to the National Academy of Sciences study of CAFE standards to be released in July, Modernize Our Energy Infrastructure The energy we use passes through a vast nationwide network of generating facilities, transmission lines, pipelines, and refineries that converts raw resources into usable fuel and power. That system is deteriorating, and is now strained to capacity. One reason for this is government regulation, often excessive and redundant. Regulation is needed in such a complex field, but it has become overly burdensome. Regulatory hurdles, delays in issuing permits, and economic uncertainty are limiting investment in new facilities, making our energy markets more vulnerable to transmission bottlenecks, price spikes and supply disruptions. America needs more environmentally-sound energy projects to connect supply sources to growing markets and to deliver energy to homes and business. To reduce the incidence of electricity blackouts, we must greatly enhance our ability to transmit electric power between geographic regions, that is, sending power to where it is needed from where it is produced. Most of America s transmission lines, substations, and transformers were built when utilities were tightly regulated and provided service only within their assigned regions. The system is simply unequipped for large-scale swapping of power in the highly competitive market of the 21 st century. The National Energy Policy will modernize and expand our energy infrastructure in order to ensure that energy supplies can be safely, reliably, and affordably transported to homes and businesses. This report includes recommendations to: Direct agencies to improve pipeline safety and expedite pipeline permitting. Issue an Executive Order directing federal agencies to expedite permits and coordinate federal, state, and local actions necessary for energy-related project approvals on a national basis xii NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

12 in an environmentally sound manner, and establish an interagency task force chaired by the Council on Environmental Quality. The task force will ensure that federal agencies set up appropriate mechanisms to coordinate federal, state and local permitting activity in particular regions where increased activity is expected. Grant authority to obtain rights-ofway for electricity transmission lines with the goal of creating a reliable national transmission grid. Similar authority already exists for natural gas pipelines and highways. Enact comprehensive electricity legislation that promotes competition, encourages new generation, protects consumers, enhances reliability, and promotes renewable energy. Implement administrative and regulatory changes to improve the reliability of the interstate transmission system and enact legislation to provide for enforcement of electricity reliability standards. Expand the Energy Department s research and development on transmission reliability and superconductivity. coal-powered electric plants are now under construction. Research into clean coal technologies may increase the attractiveness of coal as a source for new generation plants. Nuclear power plants serve millions of American homes and businesses, have a dependable record for safety and efficiency, and discharge no greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As noted earlier, these facilities currently generate 20 percent of all electricity in America, and more than 40 percent of electricity generated in 10 states in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. Other nations, such as Japan and France, generate a much higher percentage of their electricity from nuclear power. Yet the number of nuclear plants in America is actually projected to decline in coming years, as old plants close and none are built to replace them. Enormous advances in technology have made oil and natural gas exploration and production both more efficient and more environmentally sound. Better technology means fewer rigs, more accurate drilling, greater resource recovery and envi- As a country, we have demanded more and more energy. But we have not brought on line the supplies needed to meet that demand. We can explore for energy, we can produce energy and use it, and we can do so with a decent regard for the natural environment. Vice President Richard B. Cheney Increase Energy Supplies A primary goal of the National Energy Policy is to add supply from diverse sources. This means domestic oil, gas, and coal. It also means hydropower and nuclear power. And it means making greater use of non-hydro renewable sources now available. One aspect of the present crisis is an increased dependence, not only on foreign oil, but on a narrow range of energy options. For example, about 90 percent of all new electricity plants currently under construction will be fueled by natural gas. While natural gas has many advantages, an over-reliance on any one fuel source leaves consumers vulnerable to price spikes and supply disruptions. There are several other fuel sources available that can help meet our needs. Currently, the U.S. has enough coal to last for another 250 years. Yet very few Figure 5 Fuel Sources for Electricity Generation in 2000 Hydropower 7% Renewables 2% Oil 3% Natural Gas 16% Nuclear 20% Coal 52% Electricity is a secondary source of energy, generated through the consumption of primary sources. Coal and nuclear energy account for nearly 75 percent of U.S. electricity generation. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Overview Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future xiii

13 We will insist on protecting and enhancing the environment, showing consideration for the air and natural lands and watersheds of our country. Vice President Richard B. Cheney ronmentally friendly exploration. Drilling pads are 80 percent smaller than a generation ago. High-tech drilling allows us to access supplies five to six miles away from a single compact drilling site, leaving sensitive wetlands and wildlife habitats undisturbed. Yet the current regulatory structure fails to take sufficient account of these extraordinary advances, excessively restricting the environmentally safe production of energy from many known sources. Our policy will increase and diversify our nation s sources of traditional and alternative fuels in order to furnish families and businesses with reliable and affordable energy, to enhance national security, and to improve the environment. This report includes recommendations to: Issue an Executive Order directing all federal agencies to include in any regulatory action that could significantly and adversely affect energy supplies a detailed statement on the energy impact of the proposed action. Open a small fraction of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to environmentally regulated exploration and production using leading-edge technology. Examine the potential for the regulated increase in oil and natural gas development on other federal lands. Earmark $1.2 billion of bid bonuses from the environmentally responsible leasing of ANWR to fund research into alternative and renewable energy resources including wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Enact legislation to expand existing alternative fuels tax incentives to include landfills that capture methane gas emissions for electricity generation and to electricity produced from wind and biomass. Extend the number of eligible biomass sources to include forest-related sources, agricultural sources, and certain urban sources. Provide $2 billion over 10 years to fund clean coal technology research and a new credit for electricity produced from biomass co-fired with coal. Direct federal agencies to streamline the hydropower relicensing process with proper regard given to environmental factors. Provide for the safe expansion of nuclear energy by establishing a national repository for nuclear waste, and by streamlining the licensing of nuclear power plants. Accelerate Protection and Improvement of the Environment America s commitment to environmental protection runs deep. We are all aware of past excesses in our use of the natural world and its resources. No one wishes to see them repeated. In the 21 st century, the ethic of good stewardship is well established in American life and law. We do not accept the false choice between environmental protection and energy production. An integrated approach to policy can yield a cleaner environment, a stronger economy, and a sufficient supply of energy for our future. The primary reason for that has been steady advances in the technology of locating, producing, and using energy. Since 1970, emissions of key air emissions are down 31 percent. Cars today emit 85 percent less carbon monoxide than 30 years ago. Lead emissions are down 90 percent. Lead levels in ambient air today are 98 percent lower than they were in America is using more, and polluting less. One of the factors harming the environment today is the very lack of a comprehensive, long-term national energy policy. States confronting blackouts must take desperate measures, often at the expense of environmental standards, requesting waivers of environmental rules, and delaying the implementation of anti-pollution efforts. Shortfalls in electricity generating capacity and shortsighted policies have blocked construction of new, cleaner plants, leaving no choice but to rely on older, inefficient plants to meet demand. The increased use of emergency power sources, such as diesel generators, results in greater air pollution. New anti-pollution technologies hold great promise for the environment. The same can be said of 21 st century power generators that must soon replace older models; signifi- xiv NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

14 cant new resources for land conservation efforts; and continued research into renewable energy sources. All have a place in the National Energy Policy. The National Energy Policy will build upon our nation s successful track record and will promote further improvements in the productive and efficient use of energy. This report includes recommendations to: Enact multi-pollutant legislation to establish a flexible, market-based program to significantly reduce and cap emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury from electric power generators. Increase exports of environmentally friendly, market-ready U.S. technologies that generate a clean environment and increase energy efficiency. Establish a new Royalties Conservation Fund and earmark royalties from new, clean oil and gas exploration in ANWR to fund land conservation efforts. Implement new guidelines to reduce truck idling emissions at truck stops. Increase Energy Security. The National Energy Policy seeks to lessen the impact on Americans of energy price volatility and supply uncertainty. Such uncertainty increases as we reduce America s dependence on foreign sources of energy. At the same time, however, we recognize that a significant percentage of our resources will come from overseas. Energy security must be a priority of U.S. trade and foreign policy. We must look beyond our borders and restore America s credibility with overseas suppliers. In addition, we must build strong relationships with energy-producing nations in our own hemisphere, improving the outlook for trade, investment, and reliable supplies. Energy security also requires preparing our nation for supply emergencies, and assisting low-income Americans who are most vulnerable in times of supply disruption, price spikes, and extreme weather. To ensure energy security for our nation and its families, our report includes these recommendations: Dedicate new funds to the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program by funneling a portion of oil and gas royalty payments to LIHEAP when oil and natural gas prices exceed a certain amount. Double funding for the Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program, increasing funding by $1.4 billion over 10 years. Direct the Federal Emergency Management Administration to prepare for potential energy-related emergencies. Support a North American Energy Framework to expand and accelerate cross-border energy investment, oil and gas pipelines, and electricity grid connections by streamlining and expediting permitting procedures with Mexico and Canada. Direct federal agencies to expedite necessary permits for a gas pipeline route from Alaska to the lower 48 states. Looking Toward the Future The President s goal of reliable, affordable, and environmentally sound energy supplies will not be reached overnight. It will call forth innovations in science, research, and engineering. It will require time and the best efforts of leaders in both political parties. It will require also that we deal with the facts as they are, meeting serious problems in a serious way. The complacency of the past decade must now give way to swift but wellconsidered action. Present trends are not encouraging, but they are not immutable. They are among today s most urgent challenges, and well within our power to overcome. Our country has met many great tests. Some have imposed extreme hardship and sacrifice. Others have demanded only resolve, ingenuity, and clarity of purpose. Such is the case with energy today. We submit these recommendations with optimism. We believe that the tasks ahead, while great, are achievable. The energy crisis is a call to put to good use the resources around us, and the talents within us. It summons the best of America, and offers the best of rewards in new jobs, a healthier environment, a stronger economy, and a brighter future for our people. The goals of this strategy are clear: to ensure a steady supply of affordable energy for America s homes and businesses and industries. President George W. Bush Overview Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America s Future xv

15 C H A P T E R O N E Taking Stock Energy Challenges Facing the United States The U.S. economy depends on reliable and affordable energy. In the coming months, we face several serious long-term energy challenges: electricity shortages and disruptions in California and the West, dramatic increases in gasoline prices due to recordlow inventories, a strained supply system, and continued dependence on foreign suppliers. 1-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY America s current energy challenges can be met with rapidly improving technology, dedicated leadership, and a comprehensive approach to our energy needs. Our challenge is clear we must use technology to reduce demand for energy, repair and maintain our energy infrastructure, and increase energy supply. Today, the United States remains the world s undisputed technological leader; but recent events have demonstrated that we have yet to integrate 21st-century technology into an energy plan that is focused on wise energy use, production, efficiency, and conservation. Prices today for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas are dramatically higher than they were only a year ago. In California, homeowners, farmers, and businesses face soaring electricity prices, rolling blackouts, increasing financial turmoil, and an uncertain energy future. Our nation s dependence on foreign sources of oil is at an all-time high and is expected to grow. Current high energy prices and supply shortages are hurting U.S. consumers and businesses, as well as their prospects for continued economic growth. Our national energy policy must be comprehensive in scope. It must protect our environment. It must also increase our supply of domestic oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources. Our failure over the past several years to modernize our energy infrastructure the network of transmission lines, gas pipelines, and oil refineries that transports our energy to consumers and converts raw materials into usable fuels is a result of the lack of careful planning and lack of a comprehensive national energy plan. The United States faces serious energy challenges: electricity shortages and disruptions in California and elsewhere in the West, dramatic increases in gasoline prices due to record-low inventories, a strained supply system, and continued dependence on foreign suppliers. These challenges have developed from years of neglect and can only be addressed with the implementation of sound policy. There are no easy, short-term solutions. Our increased dependence on foreign oil profoundly illustrates our nation s failure to establish an effective energy policy. Between 1991 and 2000, Americans used 17 percent more energy than in the previous decade, while during that same period, domestic energy production rose by only 2.3 percent. While U.S. production of coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy has increased somewhat in recent years, these increases have been largely offset by declines in domestic oil production. As a result, America has met almost all of its increased energy demand over the past ten years with increased imports. U.S. energy consumption is projected to increase by about 32 percent by Unless a comprehensive national energy policy is adopted, Americans will continue to feel the effects of an inadequate electrical transmission grid, a pipeline system stretched to capacity, insufficient domestic energy supply, and a regional imbalance in supply sources. It is important that we meet these challenges with a comprehensive energy plan that takes a long-term approach to meeting our energy needs. PHILADELPHIA CONVENTION & VISITORS BUREAU

16 Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States

17 California s Energy Challenge Recent and looming electricity blackouts in California demonstrate the problem of neglecting energy supply. They also foretell the consequences of failing to implement a long-term energy plan for our nation as a whole. Though weather conditions and design flaws in California s electricity restructuring plan contributed, the California electricity crisis is at heart a supply crisis. Since 1995, California s peak summer demand for electricity has risen by at least 5,500 megawatts (MW), while in-state generation has failed to keep pace. California s generation shortfall did not stem from a lack of interest in building capacity. Since 1997, power producers filed applications to build an additional 14,000 MW of new capacity in California. In addition to a lack of new generation, a crucial transmission bottleneck in the middle of the state called Path 15 prevents power in the south from being shipped to the north during emergencies. This year, reduced hydropower availability due to low rainfall, higher than expected unplanned plant outages, and the financial problems of California s utilities exacerbated this growing supply demand imbalance. As a result, California s supply problem turned into a crisis, resulting in soaring electricity bills for homes and businesses and rolling blackouts. In part due to the interconnected nature of the western electricity grid, California s critical electricity shortages have helped to drive up electricity costs in the West. Unfortunately, there are no short-term solutions to long-term neglect. It can take new power plants and transmission facilities years to site, permit, and construct. Despite expedited federal permitting, California s emergency efforts to increase new generation by 5,000 MW by July appear to be falling short. Less than 2,000 MW of new generation is expected to be in place by summer. Even with aggressive conservation measures, peak demand this summer is projected to outstrip supply by several thousand megawatts. The California grid operator expects more than 30 days of blackouts. California officials have warned that the crisis may last several years. Though California s efforts to increase generation may not suffice to prevent blackouts this summer, if continued and strengthened, they promise to limit the duration of the crisis. Recommendations: The National Energy Policy Development (NEPD) Group recommends that the President issue an Executive Order to direct all federal agencies to include in any regulatory action that could significantly and adversely affect energy supplies, distribution, or use, a detailed statement on (1) the energy impact of the proposed action, (2) any adverse energy effects that cannot be avoided should the proposal be implemented, and (3) alternatives to the proposed action. The agencies would be directed to include this statement in all submissions to the Office of Management and Budget of proposed regulations covered by Executive Order 12866, as well as in all notices of proposed regulations published in the Federal Register. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the executive agencies to work closely with Congress to implement the legislative components of a national energy policy. Conservation and Energy Efficiency Conservation and energy efficiency are crucial components of a national energy plan. Energy efficiency is the ability to use less energy to produce the same amount of useful work or services. Conservation is closely related and is simply using less energy. Improved energy efficiency and conservation reduces energy consumption and energy costs, while maintaining equivalent service in our homes, offices, factories, and automobiles. Greater energy 1-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

18 efficiency helps the United States reduce energy imports, the likelihood of energy shortages, emissions, and the volatility of energy prices. Over the last three decades, the United States has significantly improved its energy efficiency by developing and expanding the use of energy efficient technologies. Although our economy has grown by 126 percent since 1973, our energy use has increased by only 30 percent. Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus. About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy, such as the growth of the service sector. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency. Technological improvements in energy efficiency allow consumers to enjoy more energy services without commensurate increases in energy demand. The rate at which these efficiency improvements are made varies over time, depending on the extent to which factors such as energy policies, research and development, prices, and market regulations encourage the development of new, efficient products and consumer investment in these products. An increased rate of improvement in energy efficiency can have a large impact on energy supply and infrastructure needs, reducing the need for new power plants and other energy resources, along with reduced stress on the energy supply infrastructure. Load management is the ability to adjust energy loads to reflect immediate supply conditions. In the very short term, direct appeals for conservation can ease strained energy supply markets for a time. Over the longer run, the ability to adjust demand on an as-needed basis can be an important source of energy reserves, resulting in lower energy bills for participating customers. The impact that improvements in energy efficiency can have on energy supply markets grows over time. Electricity demand is projected to rise by 1.8 percent a year over the next 20 years, requiring the addition of some 393,000 MW of generation capacity. At the same time, energy efficiency is projected to continue to improve between 2000 and A decrease in demand from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent would reduce the need for new generating capacity next year by about 2,000 MW. Extending that reduction over the next 20 years would reduce the need for new generation by 60,000 to 66,000 MW. While this projection shows that conservation can help ensure the United States has adequate energy supplies for the future, it also shows that conservation alone is not the answer. Even with more conservation, the U.S. will need more energy supplies. Today, new technologies offer new opportunities to enhance our energy efficiency. As these technologies gain market acceptance, they will help ensure a reliable and affordable energy and electric power supply for the nation. Energy Intensity The energy intensity of the U.S. economy is measured by the amount of energy used to produce a dollar s worth of gross domestic product (GDP). It now takes only about 56 percent of the energy required in 1970 to produce a Figure 1-1 U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of GDP: (Index: 1970 = 1) Energy Use per Capita Energy Use per Dollar of GDP The energy intensity of the U.S. economy is measured by the amount of energy used to produce a dollar s worth of gross domestic product (GDP). By that yardstick, U.S. energy intensity declined significantly between 1970 and 1985, and has continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Measures of Electrical Power A watt is a measure of the amount of energy that can be produced during a specific period of time. 1 kilowatt (KW)= 1,000 watts 1 megawatt (MW)=1million watts 1 gigawatt (GW)=1 billion watts 1 terawatt (TW)=1 trillion watts U.S. Energy Efficiency Is Improving New home refrigerators now use about onethird less energy than they did in New commercial fluorescent lighting systems use less than half the energy they did during the 1980s. Federal buildings now use about 20 percent less energy per square foot since Industrial energy use per unit of output declined by 25 percent from 1980 to The chemical industry s energy use per unit of output has declined by roughly 40 percent in the past 25 years. The U.S. government has reduced its energy use in buildings by over 20 percent since The amount of energy required to generate 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity has declined by 10 percent since Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-4

19 What Causes Transmission Constraints? When additional electricity flow from one area exceeds a circuit s capacity to carry that flow to another area, the overloaded circuit becomes congested and blocks a steady flow of power. To prevent transmission bottlenecks, system operators curtail transactions between areas or increase generation on the side of the constraint where the electricity is flowing and reduce generation on the opposite side. Transmission constraints result in price differences between regions that exceed differences due to line losses, because electricity can no longer flow freely to the affected area. A pressing long-term electricity challenge is to build enough new generation and transmission capacity to meet projected growth in demand. dollar of GDP today (Figure 1-1). This reduction is attributable to improved energy efficiency, as well as to structural changes in the economy, particularly the relative decline of energyintensive industries. The decline in the nation s energy intensity accelerated between 1999 and 2000, a period when nonenergy-intensive industries experienced rapid growth. Energy intensity is projected to continue to decline through 2020 at an average rate of 1.6 percent a year. This is a slower rate of decline than experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s, which was characterized by high energy prices and a shift to less energyintensive industries, but is a more rapid rate of decline than experienced on average during the latter part of the 1980s and the 1990s. Challenges Confronting Electricity Supply Our nation s electricity supply has failed to keep pace with growing demand. This imbalance is projected to persist into the future. The adverse consequences have manifested themselves most severely in the West, where supply shortages have led to high prices and even blackouts. In other regions, inadequate supply threatens the reliability and affordability of electric power. Large amounts of new generating capacity are slated for installation around the country from 2001 to However, there is a geographic mismatch between where we will generate energy and where it is needed. For example, little capacity is being added where it is most needed, such as in California and eastern New York. Electricity supply conditions in the Southeast are expected to be tight in the summer of 2001, much as they have been the previous two years. The Northeast may also face supply shortages. If the temperatures of the summer of 2000 had been normal rather than unseasonably cool, New York and New England would most likely have experienced electricity supply shortfalls and price spikes. Critical supply problems could arise if the weather in the summer of 2001 is unusually warm or if plant outages rise above average levels. Our nation s most pressing long-term electricity challenge is to build enough new generation and transmission capacity to meet projected growth in demand. Across the country, we are seeing the same signs that California faced in the mid-1990s: significant economic regulatory uncertainty, which can result in inadequate supply. This level of uncertainty can vary across the country, depending on state and local regulations. Of the approximately 43,000 MW of new generating capacity that power companies planned in 1994 for construction from 1995 to 1999, only about 18,000 MW were actually built. Although plans have been announced to build more capacity than the country will need over the next five to seven years, this new construction assumes market and regulatory conditions that are not yet assured. Over the next twenty years, the United States will need 1,300 to 1,900 new power plants, which is the equivalent of 60 to 90 new power plants a year (Figure 1-2). But even with adequate generating capacity, we do not have the infrastructure to ensure reliable supply of electricity. Investment in new transmission capacity has failed to keep pace with growth in demand and with changes in the industry s structure. Since 1989, electricity sales to consumers have increased by 2.1 percent annually, yet transmission capacity has increased by only 0.8 percent annually. As electricity markets become more regional, transmission constraints are impeding the movement of electricity both within and between regions. The price spikes in the Midwest in the summer of 1998 were in part caused by trans- 1-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

20 Figure 1-2 The U.S. Needs More Power Plants 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 0 High Electricity Demand Case Reference Case Electricity Generating Capaciity Existing Capacity Minus Future Retirements The nation is going to require significant new generation capacity in the next two decades. Depending on demand, the United States will need to build between 1,300 and 1,900 new power plants or about one new power plant a week. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. mission constraints, which limited the region s ability to import electricity from other regions at a time of high demand. Transmission bottlenecks contributed to the blackouts in California over the past year, and have been a persistent cause of price spikes in New York City during peak demand. Constraints on New England s ability to import low-cost power from Canada could raise electricity prices during periods of high demand. Electricity is a secondary source of energy, generated through the consumption of primary sources (Figure 1-3). The largest source of U.S. electricity generation is coal, followed by nuclear energy, natural gas, hydropower, oil, and non-hydropower renewable energy. Coal Coal is America s most abundant fuel source. The United States has a 250-year supply of coal. Over 1 billion tons of coal were produced in 25 states in About 99.7 percent of U.S. coal production is consumed domestically, with electricity generation accounting for about 90 percent of coal consumption. After peaking in 1982, coal prices have generally declined. This trend is projected to continue through 2020, reflecting an expanding shift into lower-cost western coal production and substantial increases in productivity. While coal is expected to remain the dominant fuel in meeting increasing U.S. electricity demand through 2020, energy policy goals must be carefully integrated with environmental policy goals. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and related state regulations require electricity generators to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. Nuclear Energy Nuclear energy is the second-largest source (20 percent) of U.S. electricity generation. Nuclear power is used exclusively to generate electricity. Nuclear power has none of the emissions associated with coal and gas power plants, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury and carbon dioxide. Costs of electricity generation by nuclear plants compare favorably with the costs of generation by other sources. While the number of nuclear plants has declined due to retirements, nuclear electricity generation has steadily increased in recent years. Several factors have created a more favorable environment for nuclear energy: safe, standardized plant designs; an improved licensing process; effective safety oversight by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC); the advent of new technologies; and uncertain, volatile natural gas prices. This more favorable environment has resulted in increased re-licensing of nuclear plants and the consolidation of several plants in the hands of fewer, more experienced operators. Figure 1-3 Fuel Sources for Electricity Generation in 2000 Renewables 2% Oil 3% Hydropower 7% Natural Gas 16% Nuclear 20% Coal 52% Electricity is a secondary source of energy, generated through the consumption of primary sources. Coal and nuclear energy account for over 70 percent of U.S. electricity generation. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-6

21 timely long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel and high- and low-level radioactive waste. Currently, no plans exist to construct any new nuclear plants. However, due to more favorable conditions, the decline in nuclear energy generation has not been as rapid as was predicted only a few years ago, as evidenced by increased re-licensing. Many Americans received high heating bills this winter as a result of sharp increases in natural gas prices. The nuclear industry is closely regulated by the NRC, which provides oversight of the operation and maintenance of these plants. This oversight includes a comprehensive inspection program that focuses on the most significant potential risks of plant operations, and features fulltime resident inspectors at each plant, as well as regional inspectors with specialized expertise. In addition to rigorous inspection criteria, the installation of new design features, improvements in operating experience, nuclear safety research, and operator training have all contributed to the nuclear industry s strong safety record. An important challenge to the use of nuclear energy is the issue of safe and Natural Gas Natural gas is the third-largest source of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for 16 percent of generation in Under existing policy, natural gas generating capacity is expected to constitute about 90 percent of the projected increase in electricity generation between 1999 and Electricity generated by natural gas is expected to grow to 33 percent in 2020 a growth driven by electricity restructuring and the economics of natural gas power plants. Lower capital costs, shorter construction lead times, higher efficiencies, and lower emissions give gas an advantage over coal and other fuels for new generation in most regions of the country. However, natural gas is not just an electricity source. It is used in many different ways, including as vehicle fuel, as industrial fuel, and in our homes. In addition, natural gas is used as a feedstock during the manufacturing process of such products as chemicals, rubber, apparel, furniture, paper, clay, glass, and other petroleum and coal products. Overall, natural gas accounts for 24 percent of total U.S. energy consumed and for all purposes 27 percent of domestic energy produced. Eighty-five percent of total U.S. natural gas consumption is produced domestically. The import share of consumption rose from 5 percent in 1987 to 15 percent in 2000, and net imports have comprised more than 50 percent of the growth in gas demand since Canada, with very large gas supplies and easy pipeline access to the lower 48 states, accounts for nearly all U.S. natural gas imports. Unlike oil, almost all natural gas is produced and sold within the same region. Therefore, prices are determined by regional, rather than global, markets. In 2000, natural gas prices moved 1-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

22 sharply higher after fifteen years of generally flat prices. Futures prices surged by 320 percent in 2000 to an all-time high of $9.98 per million Btus in late December 2000 nearly five times higher than the $2.05 per million Btu average from 1991 to While prices have declined since the beginning of 2001, they remain much higher than recent levels. Between 2000 and 2020, U.S. natural gas demand is projected by the Energy Information Administration to increse by more than 50 percent, from 22.8 to 34.7 trillion cubic feet. Others, such as Cambridge Energy Research Associates, expect gas consumption to increase by about 37 percent over that period. Growth is projected in all sectors industrial, commercial, residential, transportation, and electric generation. More than half of the increase in overall gas consumption will result from rising demand for electricity generation. Although high natural gas prices have negative effects on consumers, businesses, industries, and the economy as a whole, they also promote more rapid development and adoption of new energy efficient technologies, investment in distribution systems, and greater investment in exploration and development. Although these market responses do not occur rapidly enough to prevent nearterm price spikes, over time, they help to hold down prices. As a result of the sharp increase in natural gas prices, many consumers received historically high utility bills this winter. The price spike has had a particularly severe impact on low-income consumers who use natural gas for heating. In recent months, 5 million consumers have applied for federal and state assistance to pay their heating bills an increase of 1 million consumers over last year. The projected rise in domestic natural gas production from 19.3 trillion cubic feet in 2000 to 29.0 trillion cubic feet in 2020 may not be high enough to meet projected demand. In the near term, incremental production of natural gas is expected to come primarily from unconventional sources in the Rocky Mountain, Gulf Coast, and midcontinent regions; the North Slope of Alaska; and the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Onshore federal lands currently contribute about 10 percent of U.S. production, and federal offshore production contributes about 26 percent. The most significant long-term challenge relating to natural gas is whether adequate supplies can be provided to meet sharply increased projected demand at reasonable prices. If supplies are not adequate, the high natural gas prices experienced over the past year could become a continuing problem, with consequent impacts on electricity prices, home heating bills, and the cost of industrial production. These concerns will redouble if policy decisions sharply reduce electricity generation by any other source, since it is doubtful that natural gas electricity generation could expand to the extent necessary to compensate for that loss of generation. To meet this long-term challenge, the United States not only needs to boost production, but also must ensure that the natural gas pipeline network is expanded to the extent necessary. For example, although natural gas electricity generation in New England is projected to increase by 16,000 MW through 2000, bottlenecks may block the transmission of necessary supplies. Unless pipeline constraints are eliminated, they will contribute to supply shortages and high prices, and will impede growth in electricity generation. Hydropower Hydropower is the fourth-largest source of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for about 7 percent of total generation in In some regions of the country, such as the Northwest and New York, hydropower makes a much bigger contribution to electricity generation. Although the United States is second only to Canada in hydropower generation, hydropower generation has remained relatively flat in the United States for years. Hydropower has significant environmental benefits. It is a form of low-cost electricity generation that produces no emissions, and it will continue to be an important source of U.S. energy for the future. Given the potential impacts on fish and wildlife, however, it is important to ef- Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-8

23 demand, especially in the Northwest and the West. Hydropower projects operate with multiple purposes, such as electricity generation, flood control, navigation, and irrigation. Although most potential for hydropower has already been developed, there is some undeveloped hydropower capacity in the United States. Much of this capacity could be expanded without constructing a new dam. The most significant challenge confronting hydropower is regulatory uncertainty regarding the federal licensing process. The process is long and burdensome, and decision-making authority is spread across a range of federal and state agencies charged with promoting different public policy goals. Reforms can improve the hydropower licensing process, ensuring better public participation, ensuring that effective fish and wildlife conditions are adopted, and providing interagency resolution before conflicting mandatory license conditions are presented. The licensing process needs both administrative and legislative reforms. In addition, FERC should be encouraged to adopt appropriate deadlines for its own actions during the process. Hydropower is the fourth-largest source of U.S. electricity generation. The most significant challenge confronting this source of energy is regulatory uncertainty regarding the federal licensing process. ficiently and effectively integrate national interests in both natural resource preservation and environmental protection with energy needs. There are two categories of hydropower projects in the United States: (1) those operated by federal electric utilities, such as the federal power marketing administrations (Bonneville, Western, Southwestern, and Southeastern); and (2) the approximately 2,600 non-federal hydropower dams licensed or exempted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The federal utilities have large hydropower systems operated by the Bureau of Reclamation and Army Corps of Engineers, and play an important role meeting electricity Oil Oil accounts for approximately 3 percent of electricity generation. Oil is used as a primary source to fire electricity generation plants in some regions. Specifically, oil is an important source of electricity in Hawaii, Florida, and some northeastern states. Oil can also be used an additional source of fuel for electricity generation in plants that can use either natural gas or oil. However, electricity generation from oil is projected to decline to about one-half of one percent of total electricity generation by Renewable Energy: A Growing Resource Renewable energy technologies tap natural flows of energy such as water, wind, solar, geological, and biomass sources to produce electricity, fuels, and heat. Non-hydropower renewable electricity generation is projected to grow at a faster rate 1-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

24 than all other generation sources, except natural gas. These sources of energy are continuously renewable, can be very clean, are domestically produced, and can generate income for farmers, landowners, and others. Although its production costs generally remain higher than other sources, renewable energy has not experienced the price volatility of other energy resources. Non-hydropower renewable energy sources currently account for only about 4 percent of total energy consumption and 2 percent of total electricity generation. The sources of non-hydropower renewable electricity generation are biomass (the direct combustion of plant matter and organic residues, such as municipal solid waste use); geothermal (use of naturally occurring steam and hot water); wind; and solar. Biomass and geothermal account for most renewable electricity generation. The most important long-term challenge facing renewable energy remains economic. Renewable energy costs are often greater than those of other energy sources. However, these costs have declined sharply in recent years, due to improved technology. If this trend continues, renewable energy growth will accelerate. By 2020, nonhydropower renewable energy is expected to account for 2.8 percent of total electricity generation. Figure 1-4 U.S. Per Capita Oil Consumption: (Barrels per Year) Per capita oil consumption reached a peak in 1978 of 31 barrels. it has fallen by 20 percent since then to 26 barrels per capita. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Renewable energy technologies tap natural flows of energy to produce electricity, fuels, and heat. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Transportation Energy Needs Oil is the nation s largest source of primary energy, serving almost 40 percent of U.S. energy needs. In 2000, the United States consumed an average of 19.5 million barrels of oil every day. Transportation fuels account for about two-thirds of our oil consumption, and the industrial sector for 25 percent. Residential and commercial uses, such as heating oil and propane important fuels in the Northeast and Midwest account for most of the rest. The share of oil in U.S. energy supply has declined since the early 1970s, the result of growth in other fuels, particularly coal and nuclear. Per capita oil consumption, which reached a peak in 1978, has fallen by 20 percent from that level (Figure 1-4). Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-10

25 Figure 1-5 Dependence on Foreign Sources of Oil (Millions of Barrels a Day) Consumption Net Imports U.S. dependence on oil imports is a serious long-term challenge. The economic security of our nation and our trading partners will remain closely tied to global oil market developments. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. In 2020, oil is projected to account for roughly the same share of U.S. energy consumption as it does today. The United States has been a net importer of energy since the 1950s, and U.S. dependence on imports has grown sharply since 1985 (Figure 1-5). Today, oil accounts for 89 percent of net U.S. energy imports. Net oil imports account for most of the rise in energy imports since the mid-1980s, and have grown from about 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1985 to 10 million bpd in World oil prices have been marked by notable price volatility over the past several years. For example, the average initial purchase price of crude oil rose from $8.03 a barrel in December 1998 to $30.30 a barrel in November Spot prices rose even higher. This dramatic price swing was the product of several events. A series of production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1998 and 1999 sharply curtailed global oil supplies. At the same time, rebounding demand for oil in Asia following roughly two years of economic weakness, and rapid economic growth in the United States boosted oil consumption and squeezed supplies even further. By September 2000, oil prices peaked as markets faced limited supply of crude and petroleum products For Position Only U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Domestic oil supply cannot be increased unless several access and infrastructure challenges are addressed. For example, U.S. refining and pipeline capacity has not kept pace with increasing demand for petroleum products NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

26 ahead of the winter season, when demand is typically higher. In December 2000, oil prices fell after the market absorbed the impact of a series of OPEC production increases. This recent price volatility illustrates the effect of intermittent market power exerted by cartel behavior in a global petroleum market. Moreover, prices are set in a market where supply is geographically concentrated. Almost two-thirds of world proven reserves are in the Middle East. Elsewhere, Central and South America account for 9 percent; Africa, 7 percent; North America, 5 percent; Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, 5 percent; the rest of Asia, 4 percent; and Western Europe, 2 percent. OPEC s huge oil reserves and production capacity and its periodic efforts to influence prices add to volatility in the market. Oil prices are expected to remain high through 2002, affecting the cost of transportation, heating, electricity generation, and industrial production. High oil prices mean high prices for petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, propane, and jet fuel. The summer 2001 base case average gasoline price from the Department of Energy Short-Term Energy Outlook is $1.49 per gallon. However, prices have risen more rapidly than anticipated since the report s release, and a much higher summer average in the range of $1.50 to $1.65 per gallon is likely. Some areas have already experienced gasoline prices above $2.00 per gallon. Gasoline inventories going into the driving season are projected to be lower than last year, which could set the stage for regional supply problems that once again create significant price volatility in gasoline markets. Price Volatility in Gasoline Markets During the early summer of 2000, low inventories set the stage for a gasoline price run-up in the Midwest. Several pipeline and refinery problems sent marketers scrambling for limited supplies of both reformulated gasoline (RFG) and conventional gasoline, driving prices up rapidly. In Chicago, the spot price for blend stock for RFG, excluding ethanol, doubled in about six weeks, from 83 cents per gallon on April 25 to $1.65 on June 7. Spot prices then fell back over the next five weeks to 84 cents on July 12 as extra supply began arriving. Retail regulargrade RFG prices in the Midwest rose from $1.47 on April 24 to just over $2.00 per gallon on June 19, before falling back to $1.43 by July 24, showing the typical tendency of Because the United States is a mature oil-producing region, production costs are often higher than in foreign countries. Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-12

27 retail prices to lag spot price changes. Refiners face additional challenges as a result of various state and local clean fuel requirements for distinct gasoline blends ( boutique fuels ). These different requirements sometimes make it difficult, if not impossible, to draw on gasoline supplies from nearby areas or states to meet local needs when the normal supply is disrupted. In 2000, very low inventories of gasoline and other refined products on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts increased the market s susceptibility to external shocks, such as operating problems in refineries or pipelines, or short-term surges in demand. Last winter, heating oil prices were at nearrecord levels. During 2000, the federal government reduced the vulnerability of the Northeast to heating oil shortages, such as those experienced in January 2000, by creating a 2-million-barrel heating oil reserve in New Jersey and Connecticut. Because the United States is a mature oil-producing region, production costs are often higher than in foreign countries, particularly OPEC countries. In addition, access to promising domestic oil reserves is limited. U.S. oil production in the lower 48 states reached its peak in 1970 at 9.4 million bpd. A surge in Alaskan North Slope oil production beginning in the late 1970s helped postpone the decline in overall U.S. production, but Alaska s production peaked in 1988 at 2 million bpd, and fell to 1 million bpd by By then, U.S. total oil output had fallen to 5.8 million bpd, 39 percent below its peak. By 2020, U.S. oil production is projected to decline from 5.8 to 5.1 million bpd under current policy. However, oil consumption is expected to rise to 25.8 million bpd by 2020, primarily due to growth in consumption of transportation fuels. Given existing law, production from offshore sources, particularly the Gulf of Mexico, is predicted to play an increasingly important role in the future, accounting for a projected high of 40 percent of domestic oil production by 2010, up from 27 percent today. Technological advances can mitigate the decline in U.S. oil production by enhancing recovery from domestic oil reserves and lowering production costs. Our projected growing dependence on oil imports is a serious long-term challenge. U.S. economic security and that of our trading partners will remain closely tied to global oil market developments. Without a change in current policy, the share of U.S. oil demand met by net imports is projected to increase from 52 percent in 2000 to 64 percent in By 2020, the oil for nearly two of every three gallons of our gasoline and heating oil could come from foreign countries. The sources of this imported oil have changed considerably over the last thirty years, with more of our imports coming from the Western Hemisphere. Despite progress in diversifying our oil suppliers over the past two decades, the U.S. and global economies remain vulnerable to a major disruption of oil supplies. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the federal government s major tool for responding to oil supply disruptions, has not kept pace with the growth in imports. The number of days of net oil import protection provided by the Reserve declined from 83 days of imports in 1992 to 54 days of imports today. Net domestic oil imports have increased significantly since 1992, while the SPR s oil inventory actually decreased. Domestic oil supply cannot be increased unless several access and infrastructure challenges are addressed. U.S. refining and pipeline capacity has not kept pace with increasing demand for petroleum products. Unless changes take place, the net effect will likely be increased imports, regionally tight markets, and circumstances in which prices for gasoline, heating oil, and other products rise independently of oil prices. Greater price volatility for gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, propane, and jet fuel is likely to become a larger problem over time, unless additional refining capacity and expanded distribution infrastructure can be developed at the same time cleaner products are required. Increasing domestic oil production and reducing demand, particularly for transportation fuels, will re NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

28 quire adoption of a comprehensive national energy policy. Alternative Transportation Fuels Development of alternative fuels such as ethanol and other biofuels (liquid fuels derived from organic matter, such as crops), natural gas, and electricity, can help diversify the transportation sector that is so reliant on oil. Ethanol, a biofuel based on starch crops such as corn, is already making a significant contribution to U.S. energy security, displacing more oil than any other alternative fuel. Other biofuels, such as biodiesel, which can be made from soybean, canola oils, animal fats, and vegetable oils, are making an increasingly important con- tribution The success of the federal alternative fuels program has been limited, however. The program focuses on mandating that certain fleet operators purchase alternative fueled vehicles. The hope was that this vehicle purchase mandate would lead to expanded use of alternative fuels. That expectation has not been realized, since most fleet operators purchase dual-fueled vehicles that operate on petroleum motor fuels. Reforms to the federal alternative fuels program could promote alternative fuels use, such as expanding the development of an alternative fuels infrastructure. Summary of Recommendations Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States The NEPD Group recommends that the President issue an Executive Order to direct all federal agencies to include in any regulatory action that could significantly and adversely affect energy supplies, distribution, or use, a detailed statement on: (1) the energy impact of the proposed action, (2) any adverse energy effects that cannot be avoided should the proposal be implemented, and (3) alternatives to the proposed action. The agencies would be directed to include this statement in all submissions to the Office of Management and Budget of proposed regulations covered by Executive Order 12866, as well as in all notices of proposed regulations published in the Federal Register. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the executive agencies to work closely with Congress to implement the legislative components of a national energy policy. The NEPD Group recommends to the President that the NEPD Group continue to work and meet on the implementation of the National Energy Policy, and to explore other ways to advance dependable, affordable, and environmentally responsible production and distribution of energy. Note: All recommendations in this report are subject to execution in accordance with applicable law. Legislation would be sought where needed. Also, any recommendations that involve foreign countries would be executed in accordance with the customs of international relations, including appropriate diplomatic consultation. Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-14

29 Regional U.S. Energy Challenges MIDWEST Energy consumption in the Midwest is dominated by the industrial sector, the sector with the fastest-growing consumption rate through The transportation sector has the second-fastest consumption growth rate through States are affected by higher prices for natural gas, propane, and gasoline, and they expect gasoline price spikes this summer. Electricity supplies in some parts of the region may be tight during peak summer demand. High energy prices will drive up farm operating costs, particularly for fertilizer, irrigation, grain drying, and fuel for tractors. Illinois consumers are reeling from high heating and cooling costs. Landlords are forced to pass on these costs in the form of higher rents. Farmers face low commodity prices, high fuel costs, and dramatically higher fertilizer costs. A key refinery is closing in part because of the cost of meeting cleaner-burning gasoline requirements. Minnesota s residential electricity use has increased due to population growth and a healthy economy. Iowa imports over 90 percent of its energy. Farmers are paying twice the 1999 price of fertilizer because of higher prices for natural gas, which is a major component in the fertilizer production. WEST Energy consumption in the West is dominated by the transportation sector, which is followed closely by the industrial sector. The region s drought emergency is exacerbating an already challenging energy picture. California is likely to experience more severe electricity blackouts this summer. The Pacific Northwest faces a major shortage of hydropower generation due to low water levels. Electricity prices will remain high in the West until more supply is added. Gasoline could be in short supply this summer in California and other states. California s energy consumption has grown by about 7 percent a year, while production has remained flat. The point has been reached where demand is occasionally exceeding supply, which has caused rolling blackouts. The situation is likely to worsen this summer when demand will peak. Oregon s lowest snow pack in history will result in the most severe short-term electricity problem in decades. The state will face high spot market prices and reports the highest gasoline prices in the country. Washington businesses are closing down or cutting back on production. Electricity costs of $400 per unit compared to $35 a year ago contributed to the closure of a major paper plant employing 800 employees. Colorado small business are suffering as well. A 169 percent jump in natural gas prices in one year may force small businesses to close. Idaho utilities are offering to pay their irrigation customers to not farm portions of their fields to reduce electricity demand and make that saved power available for other local customers. The low snow pack has reduced water in river systems needed for hydropower generation. Hawaii s geographic isolation contributes to its many energy issues, such as importing 100 percent of its energy, its disproportionately high consumption of jet fuel and heavy reliance on tourism, and its dependence on imported oil for over 90 percent of its primary energy, the majority from sources in the Asia-Pacific region. Electricity is produced mainly from oil, including residuals and distillates from refineries and coal. Because the Islands electric grids are not interconnected, electric utilities must operate with high reserve margins. Nevada is covered in large part by federal lands that require federal approval for permitting new transmission and generation facilities. The permitting process can be protracted and cumbersome, despite efforts by federal agencies to streamline and coordinate. The desert climate requires both heating and cooling, the cost of which can be burdensome. While the desert climate is also conducive to geothermal, wind, and solar technologies, additional work is needed to make these technologies economically competitive NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

30 NORTHEAST Energy consumption in the Northeast is dominated by the transportation sector. Forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration indicate that the transportation sector will also remain the dominant sector with the fastest-growing consumption rate through Northeast states energy challenges include reducing vehicle pollution and interstate transport of power plant emissions. Heavy dependence on heating oil results in disproportionate impacts during cycles of high prices. Energy supplies in the region are limited by electric transmission and gas pipeline bottlenecks. New York is rushing to complete 11 small natural gas turbines to avoid blackouts in New York City this summer, where customers pay market prices. Delaware needs upgraded transmission lines to handle increasing loads. Traditional distributed generation using diesel generators may address these shortfalls, but could raise environmental problems. Connecticut expects no power shortages this summer, but brownouts are possible if there is a prolonged spike in energy use while power plants are shut down for routine maintenance. New Hampshire must conserve power on hot days to avoid summer blackouts. New Jersey regulators have had to allow utilities to raise natural gas rates by 2 percent a month through July 2001 to make up for money lost during the winter due to high fuel prices. SOUTH Energy consumption in the South is dominated by the industrial sector, followed by the transportation sector. The transportation sector, however, is expected to grow faster than the industrial sector through While no state in the region anticipates summer power shortages, electricity supplies in parts of the region may be tight during peak summer demand. Arkansas costs of natural gas and propane have doubled and then tripled, contributing to employee layoffs. Oklahoma s second-largest industry is the oil and gas industry. The volatility of oil and gas markets can severely affect Oklahomans and the state s economy. Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Energy Challenges Facing the United States 1-16

31 C H A P T E R T W O Striking Home The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses Figure 2-1 Income Spent on Energy (Percent) Until recently, the share of disposable household income spent on energy steadily declined, falling to a low of 3.8 percent at the end of Higher prices for oil and other energy products and record cold temperatures in late 2000 bumped this share up to 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Note: Plotted quarterly through the fourth quarter of Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. American families, communities, and businesses all depend on reliable and affordable energy for their health, safety, and livelihood. Energy is a critical component of nearly everything that affects our daily lives, from transportation to communication, from food production to medical services, and from air conditioning to heating. Americans expect these services to enhance our lives, and are keenly aware that each additional, unanticipated energy expense is a decrease in funds available for other needs. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to explore potential opportunities to develop educational programs related to energy development and use. This should include possible legislation to create public education awareness programs about energy. Such programs should be longterm in nature, should be funded and managed by the respective energy industries, and should include information on energy s compatibility with a clean environment. Impacts of High Energy Prices on the Daily Lives of Americans Many American families and businesses have already felt the strain of rising prices and unreliable energy supplies. Every time energy prices rise, American families have fewer dollars available to meet their needs. Low-income households, energy-intensive industries, and farmers generally find it difficult to make rapid adjustments to energy price increases. Rising oil prices act like a tax by foreign oil exporters on Americans. Changing energy prices impose economic costs, such as forcing plants to change schedules, replace machinery, or even shut down. These costs can eventually impact economic growth. So far, increased capital investment by domestic energy producers has offset only a small part of the dampening effects of higher energy costs on consumer spending. Families Energy bills for the 74 million middleclass American households consist primarily of home and transportation related expenses. Heating and cooling expenses represent about 40 percent of household energy costs. Other energy expenses include costs for lighting, hot water, appliances, and transportation. For almost twenty years, the share of household income that Americans spent on their energy needs steadily declined. However, between 1998 and the end of last year, family spending on energy rose by more than 26 percent, from 3.8 to 4.8 percent of after-tax income (Figure 2-1). Last winter, heating bills for many families tripled. Roughly 50 percent of American families heat their homes with natural gas. Because the last two months of 2000 were particularly cold in some parts of the country, heating bills increased significantly relative to the previous winter. Last winter, average natural gas heating costs in the Midwest increased by 73 percent, from $540 to $933. New Englanders heating bills rose by 27 percent, from $760 to $ NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

32 Chapter 2 Striking Home: Home: The The Impacts of of High High Energy Prices Pricess on on Families, Communities, Commubnities, and and Businesses Businesses 17

33 Higher energy prices have forced some energy-intensive manufacturing industries to halt or scale back production and lay off workers. Many working households can usually accommodate such increases in energy by cutting back on other needs. However, lowincome households often have more difficult choices to make. Energy costs for an average low-income household could total 14 percent of family income during the winter of , up from about 11 percent for the previous winter. In contrast, energy costs typically represent only about 4 percent of a middle-class family s household budget. The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is a federal block grant program that helps low-income consumers pay their energy bills. Last winter, 1.2 million more American families applied for LIHEAP assistance to pay their heating bills, bringing the total close to 5 million American families up by 26 percent over last year s 3.9 million applicants. As many as 3.6 million families in eighteen states and the District of Columbia risk being unable to pay their bills and having their energy cut off because of the effects of rapidly increasing energy costs. The low-income elderly are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply. If they keep their homes at a reasonable temperature, the high cost of electricity may make it difficult for them to pay their higher electricity bills. This could further result in an elimination of service. Another summer of very hot weather and high energy bills could cause serious health problems for some Americans, particularly those sensitive to high temperatures. The Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program has reduced the heating and cooling costs of low-income households by weatherizing more than 5 million homes since its inception in The President has requested $1.2 billion in additional funding for this program over ten years, roughly double the current level of spending. Consistent with that commitment, the 2002 budget will include a $120 million increase over The Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program: Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President take steps to mitigate impacts of high energy costs on low-income consumers. These steps would include: Strengthening the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Pro gram by making $1.7 billion available annually. This is an increase of $300 million over the regular FY 2001 appropriation. Directing the Secretaries of Interior and Health and Human Services to propose legislation to bolster LIHEAP funding by using a portion of oil and gas royalty payments. Redirecting royalties above a set trigger price to LIHEAP, whenever crude oil and natural gas prices exceed that trigger price, as determined by the responsible agencies. The NEPD Group recommends that the President increase funding for the Weatherization Assistance Program by $1.2 billion over ten years. This will roughly double the spending during that period on weatherization. Consistent with that commitment, the FY 2002 Budget includes a $120 million increase over The Department of Energy will have the option of using a portion of those funds to test improved implementation approaches for the weatherization program. The NEPD Group recommends that the President support legislation to allow funds dedicated for the Weatherization and State Energy Programs to be transferred to LIHEAP if the Department of Energy deems it appropriate. The energy burden on low-income households, as a proportion of income, is four times greater than for other American households. The Weatherization Program provides grant funding for a network of all states and some 970 local weatherization agencies to provide insulation, duct system improvements, furnace upgrades, and other cost-effective, energy-saving improvements based on the energy needs of each home weatherized. Currently, each dollar spent on home weatherization generates $2.10 worth of energy savings over the life of the home; with additional economic, environmental, health, and safety benefits associated with the installations and resulting home improvements. Typical savings in heating bills, for a natural gas heated home, grew from about 18 percent in 1989 to 33 percent today. Businesses For businesses, higher energy prices and disruptions in energy supply may increase inflation and reduce profits, production, investment, and employment. The im- 2-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

34 pact of higher energy prices takes two forms: the higher costs of paying for the energy to run the business, and the higher costs when raw fuel sources are used in manufacturing. In some energy-intensive industries, rising energy prices have had a significant effect on product prices and operations. For instance, while nonenergy producer prices at the intermediate stage of processing have risen by only 3.6 percent since December 1998, prices of industrial materials and plastic resins, which use petroleum inputs, are up 14 and 23 percent, respectively. DuPont, the leading U.S. producer of plastics, chemicals, and fibers derived from oil and natural gas, faced an increase of $1.3 billion in raw material costs last year, the largest increase in the industry in a decade. The company expects further disruptions this year due to high energy costs. The Federal Reserve has reported that businesses have experienced higher energy costs for a number of months, but have been unable to pass these increases on to customers due to intense foreign and domestic competition and slowing demand. On March 7, 2001, the Federal Reserve reported that businesses across the country experienced higher fuel and other energy costs in February 2001, but most businesses were unwilling or unable to pass these costs on to consumers. This absorption of much of the higher costs of energy has deteriorated the profit margins of many businesses. About onequarter of the increase in total unit costs of nonfinancial, nonenergy corporations in the final quarter of last year reflected a rise in energy costs. A more moderate pace of consumer spending, due in part to higher energy prices (natural gas in particular) also contributed to the margin squeeze. The reduction in businesses purchasing power has also constrained outlays for plants and equipment and most likely intensified the slowdown in business investment that occurred in the last half of Energy-intensive manufacturing industries are very sensitive to changes in energy prices, and adjust their production accordingly. Some companies have been forced to halt or scale back production and lay off workers. Others have deemed it more profitable to sell their energy than to produce their products. In the Pacific Northwest, Georgia-Pacific s paper mill closed down and laid off 800 workers until diesel generators could be installed. In recent months, the company s average power costs soared from $1.2 million to $10 million. For other industries, such as computerdriven service industries, energy is not an important component of the total cost. However, many such businesses require a high-quality, reliable source of power. Even a brief loss of power can impose significant costs on hightechnology firms. Energy supply disruptions also impose costs on firms when products or prod- Disruptions in the supply of energy impose hardships on businesses when products or product inputs are damaged or destroyed, or when production runs are interrupted. Many companies have been unable to pass higher energy costs on to their customers, which has sharply reduced their profit margins. Chapter 2 Striking Home: The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses 2-4

35 Farmers have been hit especially hard by higher fuel and oil prices, which accounted for over a third of the rise in the cost of running their farms. uct inputs are damaged or destroyed, or when production runs are interrupted. For example, a survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business in February, 2001, found that more than half of the firms surveyed that had experienced blackouts this year in California were forced to reduce or shut down business operations altogether during the blackouts. About one-third lost sales, almost 21 percent said materials were damaged or destroyed, and nearly 40 percent had to absorb wage costs for work that was not completed. For businesses that seek to mitigate energy price volatility, an important factor is access to derivatives markets. Both exchangetraded futures and over-the-counter derivative contracts allow firms to substantially reduce their exposure to changes in energy prices. A wide variety of highly liquid futures contracts on energy products such as oil, natural gas, and electricity allow energy users and market participants to reduce or add financial exposure to energy prices. More so- Figure 2-2 Farmers Are Being Squeezed by Energy Prices (Index: = 100) Prices Paid phisticated and customizable products are available in the over-the-counter derivative markets. As these markets become increasingly liquid and efficient, more firms will take advantage of these products, reducing the economy s sensitivity to shifts in energy prices. However, most small businesses currently lack the resources or sophistication to take advantage of these products, and will therefore remain vulnerable to rising energy costs. The U.S. government should continue to support the development of efficient derivatives markets. Agriculture Farmers need ample, affordable energy to run their machinery and equipment. Today, farm production costs are rising sharply, while farm income remains low. Increasing oil prices and interest rates, along with higher prices for other production inputs (including hired labor), boosted farmers production expenses by 4 percent, or $7.6 billion, in The rise in farm production expenses has occurred at a time of continued weakness in the prices farmers receive for their products (Figure 2-2). Higher fuel and oil prices accounted for over one-third of the increase in farm Figure 2-3 Farm Costs Are Increasing (Index: December 1979 = 100) Prices Received Costs for fuel, fertilizer, and electricity have boosted total prices paid by farmers, while prices farmers receive for their products have remained weak. Note: Prices paid are for goods, services, interest, taxes, and wages; prices received are for all farm products. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture Rising energy prices had a significant effect on product prices in some industries that are heavily dependent on energy inputs. The most dramatic example is the 90 percent increase in the price of nitrogenous fertilizer since December Source: U.S. Department of Labor. 2-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

36 production costs. Retail diesel prices this past winter were $1.60 a gallon, compared to about $1.40 a year ago and only $1.00 two years ago. Propane prices were over $1.60 a gallon this winter, compared to $1.10 a year ago. And, natural gas prices hit $10.00 per million Btus in January, after averaging about $2.50 for most of Although natural gas prices have declined, they remain much higher than earlier levels. Natural gas is an important component of farm production costs. For example, it is used to dry grain, heat farm buildings, and run food-processing equipment. Heating costs for poultry producers soared last winter, sharply reducing earnings. Natural gas also is a major component in the production of fertilizers, pesticides, and other farm chemicals. It accounts for 70 to 90 percent of the cost of producing anhydrous ammonia, a key source of nitrogen fertilizer. Surging natural gas prices have boosted the price of nitrogenous fertilizer by 90 percent since 1998 (Figure 2-3). During last December and January, several nitrogen production plants shut down, and capacity utilization fell to 50 percent. Anhydrous ammonia recently sold for $330 a ton in the Midwest, compared to $210 a ton for all of 2000 and $160 to $170 a ton at the start of Depending on the region of the country and type of farming enterprises, energyrelated expenses range from 10 to 30 percent of operating costs for producing major crops. Farm operating costs are highest where fertilizer use is heaviest and natural gas is used for irrigation pumps, such as wheat, cotton, and corn farms in the West and southwestern plains states. Costs are high for greenhouse and nursery crops that use natural gas for heating. Perishable crops also face problems, as energy costs in processing are markedly higher. Most of California s 9.5 million irrigated acres use electricity to pump water. In addition to higher bills, California farmers will likly face rolling blackouts this summer, which may disrupt farming and processing operations. Low stream flows in the West this year may lead to more pumping of ground water, which will add to irrigation costs in the West. As a result, the costs of California s agricultural products may rise significantly. In 2001, farmers total cash production expenses are forecast to increase by an additional $1.5 billion to a record $179.5 billion. Farm production costs are rising sharply, while farmers incomes remain low. Depending on the region of the country and type of farming enterprises, energy-related expenses range from 10 to 30 percent of operating costs for producing major crops Chapter 2 Striking Home: The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses 2-6

37 Even though total planted acreage is expected to fall this year, higher natural gas prices will raise expenses for nitrogen fertilizer. At the same time, net cash farm income is projected to decline from $56.4 billion in 2000 to under $51 billion in 2001, as production expenses continue to rise. Taken together, fertilizer, fuel, and electricity costs for farmers are forecast to reach $24 billion for 2001, up by about 28 percent from $18.7 billion in This increase is about 9 percent of U.S. net cash farm income, and that share could be much higher for many individual commodities. Figure 2-4 Transportation Costs Are on the Rise (Index: 1982 = 100) Jet Fuel Diesel Fuel The recent 140 percent rise in producer prices for intermediate diesel and airline fuels has affected the price of passenger and freight transport. Note: Plotted through February Source: U.S. Department of Labor. A recent study by a San Francisco Bay business group concluded that blackouts could cost California as much as $16 billion annually, and $5 billion in the Bay area alone. Transportation The transportation sector accounts for nearly 30 percent of total U.S. energy consumption. The major transportation fuel sources are petroleum-based gasoline and diesel, jet, and marine-mode bunker fuels. Natural gas pipelines are used for product distribution, and electricity is the primary source of power for rail transit and liquid pipeline transmission and distribution. During 2000, oil prices surged to a nine-year high, and gasoline prices skyrocketed. On average, fuel prices rose by 30 to 40 cents a gallon from 1999 prices, resulting in sharp increases for most modes of transportation, with nearly a 60 percent increase in railroad diesel fuel prices. Price spikes have hit the travel and trucking industries particularly hard and have led to the closure of some operations. Trucking bankruptcies are currently at an all-time high. Over 3,500 motor carrier operations failed in 2000, a dramatic increase over the previous record high of 2,700 motor carrier failures in Producer prices for intermediate diesel fuel and aviation fuel each rose by about 140 percent from a low in December 1998, affecting passenger and freight transport in the highway, airline, rail, and other transportation sectors (Figure 2-4). For most transport operations, energyrelated expenses were 7 to 14 percent of total operating costs in This share was expected to jump to 10 to 25 percent in Excluding private auto travel, U.S. passenger and freight operations in 1999 generated about $600 billion in annual revenue and paid approximately $60 billion for fuel and power. If the volume stayed the same in 2000, the various increases in fuel costs for each mode of transportation would yield a fuel bill of 2-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

38 about $80 billion an increase of one-third over the prior year s bill. Economic Impacts of California s Energy Crunch In California, 43 percent of small businesses surveyed in February, 2001, said the power problem had dimmed their views about California as an attractive place for doing business. When asked whether they agreed with the statement, The electricity problem has forced me to take concrete steps exploring the possibility of moving my business out of California, 18.3 percent of small business respondents said they either agreed or strongly agreed with the statement. More than 31 percent said they will probably or definitely cut back on planned business investment, and almost 20 percent are exploring a move to another state. Half of these small businesses concluded that blackouts would reduce their earnings. The Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group recently estimated that its nearly 200 members lost over $100 million dollars because of one day of rolling blackouts in June Countless more millions of dollars have been lost by interruptible commercial power users. Fontana-based California Steel Industries estimates it lost $2.4 million in a single day after its interruptible power was cut off twice for a total of about 12 hours. A recent study by a San Francisco Bay business group concluded that blackouts could cost California as much as $16 billion annually, and $5 billion in the Bay area alone. The example of California s utilities illustrates the potentially severe negative effects on companies whose business is highly sensitive to energy prices. In this instance, rising energy costs coupled with an inability to pass those costs along to customers has created a sharp increase in short-term liabilities. Pacific Gas & Electric has been forced to file for bankruptcy as a result, and Southern California Edison, while avoiding bankruptcy for the time being, has seen its access to credit markets disappear and the value of its financial assets plummet. Resulting concerns about solvency have led to a withdrawal of banklending facilities and supplier credit. The situation in California is of particular concern because of the major role the state plays in the regional and national economies. California s economy is equivalent to about 13 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), and it has accounted for an even larger share of U.S. GDP growth in recent years. Some businesses and consumers have been affected by production losses, lost wages, and higher energy bills resulting from rolling blackouts and higher natural gas prices. The power supply crunch in California and the West could affect the region s economy, as energy supply uncertainty could reduce investment in the region. California s troubles could also spill over to the national economy: California accounted for 11 percent of U.S. manufacturing output in Sectors in other regions that rely on those products, or that supply inputs to California manufacturers, may share any pain caused by the energy squeeze. Disruptions to California s economy could have negative impacts on our international trade. California accounts for over 16 percent of total U.S. commodity exports; nearly 25 percent of industrial equipment and computers, electronics, and instruments exports; and over 15 percent of farm commodity and food product exports. The credit problems of the California utilities have boosted commercial paper rates for all lower-rated borrowers, and liquidity in the commercial paper market has fallen. This will push some firms to seek other sources of financing, which can be more costly than commercial paper. American consumers and businesses are best served when markets function freely. Free markets allow prices to reflect changes in demand and supply, and avoid subsidies, price caps, and other constraints. Improvements in Energy Efficiency Can Help Improved energy efficiency strengthens energy security. The 42 percent decline in the intensity of U.S. energy use since the energy crisis in 1973 reflects a combination of technological advances, conservation ef- The Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group recently estimated that its nearly 200 members lost over $100 million dollars because of only one day of rolling blackouts in California. Figure 2-5 Conservation Through Higher Efficiency Energy Consumption per Dollar of Real GDP (Thousands of Btus) % decline between 1973 and Energy intensity is the amount of energy used to produce a dollar s worth of gross domestic product (GDP). As a result of the 42 percent decline in energy intensity since the first energy crisis in 1973, the U.S. economy is far better prepared today than it was in the 1970s to adjust to energy price or supply shocks. Note: Real GDP in 1996 chained dollars. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 2 Striking Home: The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses 2-8

39 forts, regulatory action, market response, and a shift toward a service economy (Figure 2-5). Our improvements in energy efficiency have prevented our current energy problems from becoming worse. The macroeconomic effects of a substantial rise in energy prices take two forms. First, to the extent that energy resources are imported, more U.S. dollars must be sent abroad to finance energy consumption, thus reducing funds available for investing in our own country. Second, higher prices cause dislocations among certain sectors of the economy, which could ultimately feed through to lower GDP growth and higher inflation. Reliance on Foreign Energy Between 1973 and 2000, U.S. dependence on foreign oil rose from about 35 percent to more than 52 percent of U.S. consumption (Figure 2-6). During the same period, the import share of natural gas consumption climbed from less than 5 percent to more than 15 percent and continues to rise. Figure 2-6 Dependence on Oil Imports Is Rising (Millions of Barrels per Day) Consumption Net Imports as a Share of U.S. Consumption Domestic Production Net Imports Production 34.8% % Over the past few decades, U.S. consumption of oil and petroleum products has increasingly outpaced domestic production. Today the United States imports over half of the oil it 8 consumes up from about 35 percent in the early 1970s. Note: Petroleum includes both crude oil and petroleum products. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Figure 2-7 Oil Prices Have Risen Sharply Monthly Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (Dollars per Barrel) Nominal Prices Real Prices Despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices since late 1998, real prices still remain lower than at any time from 1974 to Note: Real prices in 2000 dollars. Prices deflated using the Consumer Price Index Urban (CPI U) Research Series for all items linked to CPI U X1 prior to December Sources: Wall Street Journal; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Imports of energy products make up nearly 11 percent of all U.S. imports. By contrast, U.S. energy exports are relatively small. The energy trade deficit relative to our GDP represents the share of U.S. income that must be exported to purchase foreign fuel to meet domestic energy needs. The U.S. energy trade deficit in 2000 was about $120 billion, most of which was spent on oil imports. As a share of GDP, the energy trade deficit had fallen to as low as 0.4 percent at the beginning of 1999, when prices for imported crude oil were less than $10 a barrel. However, by the end of 2000, these prices had tripled to more than $30 a barrel (Figure 2-7). As a result of both the oil price spike and growing U.S. demand, the energy deficit deteriorated significantly to 1.3 percent of GDP by the fourth quarter of last year the largest deficit relative to GDP since the mid-1980s (Figure 2-8). The rise in oil prices alone has added about 0.7 percent of GDP to the U.S. trade deficit, compared to 0.9 percent in the euro currency area, and 0.8 percent in Japan. 2-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

40 Figure 2-8 The U.S.Energy Trade Deficit Has Worsened (Percent) The energy trade deficit relative to GDP represents the share of domestic income that must be exported to support domestic energy needs. For the past several years, the United States has been a net importer of energy products. As a consequence, our energy trade balance has been in deficit. By the fourth quarter of 2000, the energy deficit had deteriorated significantly to 1.3 percent of GDP the largest since the mid-1980s. Note: Plotted quarterly through the fourth quarter of Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Net U.S. oil imports are 4 billion barrels a year, which means that each $1 increase in the price of imported crude oil boosts U.S. expenditures by about $4 billion. Given these guidelines, the $20 per barrel increase from early 1999 to late 2000 translates into an export of roughly $80 billion a year (0.9 percent of GDP) when measured from the low price prevailing at the end of Impacts of Energy Prices on Financial Markets An analysis of the financial impacts of higher energy prices can be divided into two parts: the effects on individual firms whose securities comprise the financial markets, and the macroeconomic impact on inflation and interest rates. Rising energy costs and greater volatility in energy prices can have a negative effect on both individual firms and the broader financial environment, generally producing lower asset prices and higher interest rates. The financial market impact to date of rising energy prices has been limited to firms with high sensitivity to energy costs and to those with significant exposure to the California crisis. The second broad effect of rising energy costs is an increase both in measured inflation Financial markets react to energy costs and the effect those energy costs have on both individual firms and sectors of the market. Chapter 2 Striking Home: The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses 2-10

41 and in expectations for future inflation. Both factors have considerable impact on interest rates and, therefore, on the borrowing costs for businesses and consumers throughout the economy. Inflation Expectations and Interest Rates Measurable inflation, for both producers and consumers, is a primary concern of the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy. Energy costs represent roughly 16 percent of the producer price index for finished goods and 8 percent of the consumer price index. This means that sharply rising energy costs can have a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve s decision-making process. Additional impacts will come from the market s anticipating Federal Reserve actions and pushing short-term interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been. Higher short-term interest rates raise the nominal cost of borrowing for firms and individuals and can slow economic growth. Rising energy prices can also raise the inflation expectations of lenders, which can result in higher interest rates for borrowing at longer maturities. Rising long-term interest rates can reduce long-term investment, limiting future economic growth and productivity gains. Such an outcome would carry negative consequences for growth-sensitive financial sectors, such as equity and high-yield debt markets. More broadly, declining credit fundamentals for certain business sectors could raise borrowing costs for firms not directly affected by higher energy prices. For example, commercial paper rates for all lower-rated borrowers have been affected by the credit problems of the California utilities, and liquidity in the market has fallen. As a result, firms may need to seek other sources of financing, such as bank loans (if obtainable) or asset-backed loans, that can be more costly than traditional commercial paper issuance. Global Financial Markets The upward pressure on interest rates that may result from higher U.S. energy costs also affects markets beyond our borders. U.S. monetary policy and related movements in short-term interest rates can have a significant impact on other countries. While the effect varies from region to region, many emerging market economies, particularly in Latin America, are vulnerable to upward moves in U.S. interest rates. Higher nominal interest rates in the developed countries tend to reduce the amount of capital flowing to emerging markets. To the extent that this reduces investment, economic activity may be further reduced. In addition, borrowing in dollars is a significant source of funding for sovereign and private-sector entities worldwide, particularly in the emerging markets. Rising U.S. interest rates will increase the interest expenses for these borrowers, diverting funds from more productive uses and reducing overall credit quality. The global market for energy is highly fragmented and region-specific, with the exception of oil. Nevertheless, certain nations and regions are net importers of energy and are highly sensitive to changing prices. Japan, a major importer of oil and natural gas, is particularly vulnerable. Europe is a net importer of energy, with certain exceptions, while emerging market nations vary widely in their dependence on foreign energy sources. At the macroeconomic level, rising energy prices will increase the current account deficit of energy-importing nations. Since current account deficits must be financed, these nations will most likely need to pay higher interest rates to attract the necessary capital. As noted, this will tend to reduce domestic investment and lower long-term growth. In some countries, such as the United States or Japan, changes in interest rates and growth expectations can have substantial global impact. Central banks and monetary authorities vary in the degree to which they focus on inflation in setting monetary policy, making some countries more or less likely than others to raise interest rates in an environment of rising energy prices. Although Japan maintains a current account surplus due to manufacturing exports, its role as an international creditor could diminish. This may have additional impacts on the global financial markets, since Japanese financial institutions are generally suppliers of global credit. The impact of rising energy costs on the dollar is likely to be mixed. While slower U.S. growth generally reduces demand for dollars, rising oil prices are likely to increase demand, since oil contracts are usually denominated in dollars NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

42 Summary of Recommendations The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to explore potential opportunities to develop educational programs related to energy development and use. This should include possible legislation to create public education awareness programs about energy. Such programs should be long-term in nature, should be funded and managed by the respective energy industries, and should include information on energy s compatibility with a clean environment. The NEPD Group recommends that the President take steps to mitigate impacts of high energy costs on low-income consumers. These steps would include: Strengthening the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program by making $1.7 billion available annually. This is an increase of $300 million over the regular FY 2001 appropriation. Directing the Secretaries of Interior and Health and Human Services to propose legislation to bolster LIHEAP funding by using a portion of oil and gas royalty payments. Redirecting royalties above a set trigger price to LIHEAP, whenever crude oil and natural gas prices exceed that trigger price, as determined by the responsible agencies. The NEPD Group recommends that the President increase funding for the Weatherization Assistance Program by $1.2 billion over ten years. This will roughly double the spending during that period on weatherization. Consistent with that commitment, the FY 2002 Budget includes a $120 million increase over The Department of Energy will have the option of using a portion of those funds to test improved implementation approaches for the weatherization program. The NEPD Group recommends that the President support legislation to allow funds dedicated for the Weatherization and State Energy Programs to be transferred to LIHEAP if the Department of Energy deems it appropriate. The NEPD Group recommends the President recognize unique regional energy concerns by working with the National Governors Association and regional governor associations to determine how to better serve the needs of diverse areas of the country. The NEPD Group recommends the President direct FEMA to prepare for potential energy emergencies. FEMA should work with states Offices of Emergency Management as they expand existing emergency operations plans to identify potential problems and address consequences of the power shortages. FEMA should use its current Regional Incident Reporting System to identify any situations that might demand immediate attention. Using the structure of the already existing Federal Response Plan, FEMA should conduct Regional Interagency Steering Committee (RISC) meetings for states affected by the energy shortfalls. The RISC is a FEMA-led interagency committee comprised of agencies and departments that support the Federal Response Plan. Either an upcoming, scheduled RISC meeting or a special-focus RISC meeting can be held to identify the short-term energy outlook, as well as any expected consequences, in each of the states during the peak summer season. Chapter 2 Striking Home: The Impacts of High Energy Prices on Families, Communities, and Businesses 2-12

43 C H A P T E R T H R E E Protecting America s Environment Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment Over the last three decades, American ingenuity has led to a reduction in adverse environmental and public health impacts from energy development and use. Americans demand a reliable energy supply and a clean environment, and we can achieve both. Spurred by strong environmental concerns, competitive forces, and environmental regulations, businesses have developed innovative technologies and pollution-prevention techniques to protect the environment. However, more can be done. As our energy needs continue to grow and our production and distribution system is strained to capacity, it is clear that the lack of a comprehensive energy policy has environmental costs. For example, to prevent blackouts, California officials must tolerate a large short-term increase in smogforming nitrogen oxides emissions. In Los Angeles, older, dirtier power plants have had to run longer than expected. California is also rushing to use mid-sized peaker power plants and diesel-fired emergency backup generators to keep the lights on. The short-term cost in increased pollutant emissions of these emergency measures has been stark. Preliminary figures from California s South Coast Air Quality Management District indicate emissions have doubled in the first three months of the year compared with last year. In addition to nitrogen oxides emissions, dieselfired backup generators also emit toxic soot. But with many days of blackouts predicted in California this summer, these generators will most likely run for much longer than expected, and could greatly increase emissions. In the longer term, penalties and technological improvements should offset the impact of these increased emissions. However, California s experience demonstrates the environmental costs of not building an adequate supply of clean energy. Government s Role The federal government has a unique role in facilitating energy development while simultaneously protecting the environment and conserving our country s natural resource legacy. Energy development initiatives will be successful only if they adequately address their impacts on natural resource values. Federal, state, tribal, and local governments have the responsibility of protecting unique natural resources and environmental values. In fact, some environmental protections we enjoy today are often taken for granted. For example, lead levels in ambient air today are 98 percent lower than they were in 1970, largely because government regulations required that lead be removed from gasoline. The reduced number of children with IQs below 70 is attributed to reducing lead in our environment. As U.S. energy needs grow, additional innovations will be necessary to continue improving environmental conditions and to meet new environmental challenges. As we improve the energy production and distribution system, all levels of government must ensure that regulatory systems protecting public health and the environment are rigorous and efficient, and encourage innovation and improvement. 3-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

45 Roughly 30 percent of our nation s electricity supply is now generated by nuclear, hydropower, and renewable sources, all of which have few air emissions. Figure 3-1 Cleaner Air: Energy Consumption Has Risen While Emissions Have Declined (Percent Change Since 1970) Vehicle Miles Traveled +140% Gross Domestic Product +147% U.S. Coal Consumption +100% U.S.Energy Consumption +42% Key Air Emissions 31% Despite a marked increase in U.S. energy consumption, a combination of environmental regulations and technologies has decreased aggregate emissions of key air emissions: SO 2, NOx, mercury, CO, and volatile organic compounds. Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Air Quality Regulatory Programs Advances in technology and environmental regulations have decreased aggregate emissions of key air pollutants over the last three decades, despite a marked increase in energy consumption (Figure 3-1). Roughly 30 percent of our nation s electricity supply is now generated by nuclear, hydropower, and renewable sources, all of which have few air emissions. Nonetheless, fossil fuel-fired power plants, other industrial sources, and vehicles remain significant sources of air pollution (Figure 3-2). These emissions can be associated with significant health problems, including respiratory and cardiopulmonary disease, cancer, and birth defects. In addition, they can be harmful to forests, water bodies, and fish, and can decrease visibility in scenic areas. Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA) Acid Rain Program, enacted as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, is the only program directed primarily at reducing air emissions from electric utilities. Using flexible market-based incentives instead of technology-forcing standards, the program has reduced sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from utilities faster than required by law for a fraction of the initial cost estimates. By 2010, EPA expects the program will reduce annual SO 2 emissions by 10 million tons from 1980 levels, thus avoiding significant health problems and the costs associated with those levels. Federal and state regulatory programs also limit air pollution directly by restricting emissions from cars and trucks, and indirectly by setting criteria for the fuel for these vehicles. An individual car meeting 2004 federal requirements will emit 95 percent less carbon monoxide (CO), 94 percent fewer nitrogen oxides (NOx), and 98 percent fewer hydrocarbons than an average car did before laws limiting such vehicle pollution. Although individual cars and trucks are far cleaner today than they were in 1970, total emissions from the fleet of highway vehicles have remained relatively constant, because Americans drive twice as many miles today (2.5 trillion miles a year) as they did in 1970 (1.1 trillion miles a year). Despite these and other achievements, further air quality improvements can be sought, as well as ways to address new problems identified by recent scientific findings. EPA has recently adopted new, more stringent standards to further reduce ozone and particulate matter. To meet public health and environmental challenges, power plants, industrial sources, and vehicles will need to produce fewer potentially harmful emissions. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to propose multipollutant legislation. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA Administrator to work with Congress to propose legislation that would establish a flexible, market-based program to significantly reduce and cap emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury from electric power generators. Such a program (with appropriate measures to address local concerns) would provide significant public health benefits even as we increase electricity supplies. Establish mandatory reduction targets for emissions of three main pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury. Phase in reductions over a reasonable period of time, similar to the successful acid rain reduction program established by the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act. Provide regulatory certainty to allow utilities to make modifications to their plants without fear of new litigation. Provide market-based incentives, such as emissions-trading credits to help achieve the required reductions. 3-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

46 Cleaner, More Efficient Technologies Emission control technologies and emission prevention not only decrease pollution but can also contribute to economic prosperity. Innovative emission control and prevention technology and increasingly efficient energy systems have developed at a brisk pace, increasing our ability to provide cleaner, cheaper energy. Besides reducing pollution, environmental technologies account for about $21.3 billion in U.S. exports, and support approximately 136,000 U.S. jobs. The need to reduce emissions from cars and trucks has contributed to technological innovations that have transformed the domestic and global automotive industries. U.S. vehicle emission standards were the primary driving force for the original development of innovative technologies, many of which have become standard design features of today s high-tech vehicles: sophisticated three-way catalysts, on-board computers, oxygen sensors, and fuel-injection systems for cars and advanced fuel systems for trucks. Technologies such as these have allowed today s vehicles to be much cleaner, more efficient, higher performing, more reliable, and more durable than their counterparts of the 1960s and 1970s. Manufacturers are now working on developing state-of-the-art pollution control technology to further reduce emissions from motor vehicles. For optimal performance, this technology requires low-sulfur fuel that, consistent with applicable law, will be required in 2004 for gasoline and 2006 for diesel fuel. Some vehicles use alternative fuels (e.g., natural gas, propane, ethanol, and electricity); others operate with a hybrid gasoline and electrical motor; and others are using fuel cells. Cleaner Electricity The source of energy used for power generation significantly affects the amount of air emissions. Clean energy can be generated from nuclear plants, hydropower facilities, wind farms, and solar energy systems with negligible (if any) air emissions. These sources today make up about 30 percent of our electricity supply. Solar and Figure 3-2 Sources of Pollutants from Energy Generation and Use (Percent) Emissions S0 2 NO 2 Mercury CO Fuel Combustion Other Stationary Combustion Industrial Processes Transportation Miscellaneous Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) wind energy systems will continue to improve with advances in short-term weather and climate forecasting. Improved forecasting can also maximize hydropower efficiency. Technology significantly reduces pollution from coal-fired power plants, which generate more electricity in the United States than any other source. For example, scrubbers can remove 95 percent of the SO 2 emissions from a coal-fired power plant. With the innovative, market-based SO 2 reduction requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the estimated cost of using a scrubber on a coal-fired power plant to remove one ton of SO 2 has dropped approximately 40 percent in four years, from $474/ton in a 1993 estimate to $282/ton in a 1997 estimate, and continues to decline. Other existing control technologies for coalfired plants can reduce NOx emissions by more than 90 percent. A recently permitted state-of-the-art coal-fired unit, for example, at a Kansas City Power & Light facility, has 88 percent lower NOx, 99 percent lower particulate matter, and 92 percent lower SO 2 emissions than would an uncontrolled facility. Recent research by the Department of Energy (DOE), EPA, and private companies suggests that existing technologies can also significantly reduce mercury emissions. Technologies for Reducing SO 2 Emissions Many power plants use flue-gas desulfurization, or scrubbers, to reduce SO 2 emissions from burning coal. The most common wet scrubber, the limestone forcedoxidation (LSFO) process, removes SO 2 from the flue gas by sorption and through chemical reactions with the limestone. LSFO technologies can remove up to 98 percent of SO 2 and significant amounts of mercury. The most common dry scrubber, the lime spraydrying process, is used for plants that burn lower-sulfur coals. A lime slurry mixes with the hot flue gas in a spray dryer and reacts with SO 2. By recapturing sorbent at the bottom of the spray dryer removed in a particulate control device, dry scrubbers can remove up to 96 percent of SO 2. Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment 3-4

47 Using flexible market-based incentives, EPA s Acid Rain Program has reduced sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from utilities faster than required by law for a fraction of the initial cost estimates. Clean Coal Technologies New clean coal technologies are showing that air pollution can be reduced, and energy efficiency increased, by using America s abundant supply of coal. Most conventional air emission control technologies installed on coal-fired electric-generating boilers have been designed to remove a specific pollutant from the stack flue gas. Because these technologies may not be the most cost effective means of reducing multiple pollutants, several companies are developing a single-control technology to reduce multiple air pollutants to levels equivalent to those achieved by conventional controls. For example, a First Energy plant in New Hampshire recently pilot-tested stateof-the-art technology that has cut NOx emissions by 76 percent, SO 2 by 44 percent, total particulate matter by percent, and mercury by 81 percent. The process uses electrically charged particles instead of catalysts to oxidize the air pollutants into products that are easily removed and can be converted to gypsum, fertilizer, and concentrated acids. American Electric Power is installing a wet scrubber system that it expects will remove up to 75 percent NOx and 90 percent mercury. It injects a phosphorus mixture into the hot flue gas, causing the release of ozone. The ozone then oxidizes the mercury into ionic mercury and the NOx into N 2, both of which are water-soluble and easily removed. Technologies for Improved Efficiencies Two-thirds of the energy used in a conventional coal-fired power plant is wasted in the production of electricity. These losses can be minimized through a number of innovations, including installing high efficiency steam turbines, reducing steam leaks, and using software to optimize combustion efficiency. New coal-burning power plants can achieve efficiencies of over 40 percent using existing technology, and companies are developing even more efficient technologies. Wasted energy can also be recycled for use in industrial processes or for heating buildings. A family of technologies known as combined heat and power (CHP) can achieve efficiencies of 80 percent or more. In addition to environmental benefits, CHP projects offer efficiency and cost savings in a variety of settings, including industrial boilers, energy systems, and small, buildingscale applications. At industrial facilities alone, there is potential for an additional 124,000 megawatts (MW) of efficient power from gas-fired CHP, which could result in annual emission reductions of 614,000 tons of NOx emissions and 44 million metric tons of carbon equivalent. CHP is also one of a group of clean, highly reliable distributed energy technologies that reduce the amount of electricity lost in transmission while eliminating the need to construct expensive power lines to transmit power from large central power plants. The U.S. Department of Energy, through its Clean Coal Technology Program, is working with utilities and scientists to develop even cleaner, more efficient electricity-generating systems using coal. One of the most promising new approaches to using coal for clean production of electricity is integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) technology. IGCC power plants convert coal to a gaseous fuel, from which most 3-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

48 Clean Coal Technologies Up Close The Wabash River Coal Gasification Project in Terre Haute, Indiana, is one of the cleanest, most efficient coal-burning facilities in the country. Partly funded by the Department of Energy (DOE) as part of its Clean Coal Technology Program, the 262- MW coal gasification facility is owned and operated by PSI Energy and Global Energy, Inc. Instead of being directly burned, the coal is gasified and then combusted in a combined-cycle gas turbine. This allows the coal to burn more efficiently which means it gets more energy than a traditional plant out of the same amount of coal. The Wabash River Facility is over 20 percent more efficient than a typical coal-fired power plant. The gasification process also allows many of the impurities in the coal to be removed before it is combusted to generate electricity. At the Wabash River project, over 99 percent of the sulfur is removed from the coal and marketed to industrial users of sulfur. Slag is also removed and is marketed to the construction industry. The plant s design allows it to burn other fuels, such as petroleum coke. DOE is currently working with Global Energy and other industry partners to see if the plant could also be used to co-produce chemical feedstocks and transportation fuels. Additionally, DOE and its partners are studying lessons learned from the project to design a less expensive, more efficient coal gasification facility that would be ready for commercial deployment by of the impurities are removed prior to combustion, and then use the gaseous fuel in a combustion turbine to produce electricity. Waste heat from the turbine is used to generate steam and drive a steam turbine, to produce more electricity. Coal gasification plants offer the flexibility to burn other fuels, such as petroleum coke, and to make other products in addition to electricity, such as chemical feedstocks and transportation fuels. Hydrogen, which is produced directly in the coal gasifier, can be used in fuel cell-equipped vehicles. Methane, hydrogen, and other gasified coal products can be recombined into more traditional fuels, such as methanol, gasoline, or diesel fuel. Because these fuels would contain essentially no sulfur, they would easily meet EPA s sulfur standards for transportation fuels, and they would be usable in fuel cell-equipped vehicles designed for these fuels. Two plants demonstrating coal gasification technology have already been built in the United States and have achieved over 98 percent SO 2 reduction, 90 percent NOx reduction, particulate emissions below detectable levels, and approximately 38 percent efficiency. EPA believes that lessons learned will enable the next plant of this design to achieve 42 percent efficiency, and the research goal is to achieve 60 percent efficiency for plants introduced after A modern gas-fired power plant has virtually no SO 2 or mercury emissions and emits 97 percent less NOx and 50 percent less carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) than a traditional coal-fired plant. Natural gas as a source of electricity generation is on the rise, in part because it can help generators meet increasingly stringent clean air requirements. Conservation and Environmental Protection Conserving energy minimizes adverse environmental effects. Government partnerships with businesses and consumers are improving the energy efficiency of homes, office buildings, transportation sources, and industrial sites throughout the country. EPA s voluntary conservation and energy efficiency programs include Energy Star products labeling; Energy Star Residential programs for both new homes and home improvement; Energy Star Buildings, principally for commercial buildings; and new Energy Star for Industry, which focuses on manufacturers. In 2000, business participation in EPA s voluntary energy efficiency Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment 3-6

49 Federal and state regulators are working with businesses and communities to mitigate adverse environmental impacts by requiring developers and operators to choose more environmentally friendly sites, infrastructure routes, and operational criteria; fostering the use of technologies that both protect the environment and still meet energy production goals; and requiring reclamation and mitigation of any environmental damage. programs reduced NOx emissions by more than 160,000 tons. Through EPA s and the Department of Transportation s Commuter Choice Leadership Initiative, private-public employers are offering employees a variety of commuting options, which encourage commuting patterns that save fuel and energy while reducing emissions. For example, a 10 percent reduction in the rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled can result in annual savings of 38 million barrels of gasoline (82 million barrels of oil) by 2005, and can remove 45,000 metric tons of NOx, 37,000 metric tons of hydrocarbons, and 4.8 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent emissions. Energy efficiency and conservation in the home are also important factors. Examples include EPA s home improvement program, which involves efficient appliances, duct work to prevent air conditioners from leaking, efficient windows, programmable thermostats, and efficient residential lighting. Water Quality Oil, gas, and coal extraction processes can degrade water quality through their discharges. Energy generation and use can also degrade water quality by directly discharging pollutants into water bodies; changing the temperature, timing, and flow characteristics of water bodies; and emitting pollutants into the air that are ultimately deposited in water. Leaking storage tanks and pipelines release petroleum and fuel additives that can contaminate surface water and ground water, including drinking-water supplies. Federal and state regulators are working with businesses and communities to mitigate these adverse impacts by requiring developers and operators to choose more environmentally friendly sites, infrastructure routes, and operational criteria; fostering the use of technologies that both protect the environment and meet energy production goals; and requiring reclamation and mitigation of any environmental damage. For example, as a result of an analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act of the impacts of a new power plant in California, the company building the plant agreed to change the design to use a dry cooling method. This change reduced ground-water consumption by 95 percent and eliminated both cooling tower blowdown water and particulate emissions, while still achieving the desired energy production. Adverse impacts to aquatic life from cooling-water intakes, thermal discharges, and hydropower intakes can be minimized with proper design and environmental controls. A cooperative government, industry, and community-based approach during project siting and design will help ensure full consideration of the effects upon fish and aquatic resources. Programs to reduce air pollution also help clean up water bodies. For example, reducing electric utilities air emissions of NOx and SO 2 and vehicles NOx emissions reduces eutrophication and acid deposition in estuaries, both of which can harm fish populations and threaten commercial and recreational yields. For example, roughly 25 percent of nitrogen (which contributes to 3-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

50 eutrophication) entering Chesapeake Bay is from air emissions. And by significantly reducing SO 2 air emissions, the Acid Rain Program has helped reduce the acidification of water bodies. Airborne mercury emitted by coalfired power plants has been deposited into thousands of water bodies, and humans can be exposed to toxic methyl mercury when they eat fish from these waters. The Bush Administration will propose legislation adding mercury to the list of pollutant emissions from power plants that will be subject to mandatory limits. Fish, Wildlife, and Their Habitat Ecosystems provide food, shelter, and critical breeding and spawning grounds for fish and wildlife, and support commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, and other activities that contribute billions of dollars to the U.S. economy every year. Oil and gas exploration and production, hydropower dams, power plants, pipelines, and other energy-related projects can potentially affect fish, wildlife, and habitat. However, technological advances, a strong commitment to environmental protection, and the use of appropriate regulatory tools can enable proper energy development to go forward in an environmentally sensitive manner. It is important to recognize and to continue the progress in this area. When energy development is proposed, the federal government has the dual Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to work with Congress to create the Royalties Conservation Fund. This fund will earmark potentially billions of dollars in royalties from new oil and gas prodution in ANWR to fund land conservation efforts. This fund will also be used to eliminate the maintenance and improvements backlog on federal lands. responsibilities of facilitating such energy development and conserving our natural resource legacy. Special efforts are often necessary to ensure that proposed energy projects do not diminish the vitality of these unique resources. Working together, the public, businesses, and federal, state, tribal, and local governments can ensure that environmental impacts are carefully evaluated when considering energy exploration and production activities. For example, such precautions have been important for the exploration and production that is already allowed today in 42 National Wildlife Refuges. Hydropower Generation Hydropower, although a clean energy source, does present environmental challenges. Unless properly designed and operated, hydropower dams can injure or kill fish, such as salmon, by blocking their passage to upstream spawning pools. Innovations in fish ladders, screens, and hatcheries are helping to mitigate these adverse impacts. Ongoing dam relicensing efforts are resulting in community involvement and the industry s application of the latest technologies to ensure the maintenance of downstream flows and the upstream passage of fish. These efforts also have been successful in identifying and removing older, nonfunctioning dams and other impediments to fish movements. Technological advances and a strong commitment to environmental protection are enabling the healthy coexistence of our nation s diverse ecosystems with the development of energy resources. Ecosystems provide food, shelter, and critical breeding and spawning grounds for fish and wildlife, and support commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, enhance our quality of life,and other activities that contribute billions of dollars to the U.S. economy every year. Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment 3-8

51 Some natural resource areas are to be protected from any exploration. In other areas, energy development can proceed using the most advanced designs and technologies to ensure that proposed energy projects do not diminish the vitality and diversity of these unique resources. An example of such successful collaboration involves the Wanapum Dam on the Columbia River. In coordination with the National Marine Fisheries Service, the Grant County Public Utility District No. 2 installed spillway deflectors that effectively reduced concentrations of total dissolved gas that can harm fish and other aquatic life. Furthermore, through the unique collaboration on this project, the cost for the spillway deflectors was a fraction of that for deflectors installed at other hydropower projects. Coal, Oil, and Gas Exploration and Production Certain exploration and production activities can pose environmental impacts to wildlife habitat, unless conducted in a way that protects the environment. In sensitive areas, these effects can often be avoided or minimized by timing exploration and operation activities in light of migration, nesting, and other critical time periods for wildlife. In addition, new technologies designed to lessen these and other impacts can be used, such as double-walled pipes to reduce the risk of oil spills. Surface impacts from coal mining and oil exploration can temporarily damage habitats during the operation phases until reclamation is complete. To mitigate impacts during mining, for example, stormwater runoff and discharge into undisturbed environments are controlled. After mining is complete, reclamation efforts required by the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act restore viable habitats through careful reconstruction of physical and botanical resources. For instance, in the Powder River Basin, as part of reclamation, coal companies strategically place large boulders and other rock material to create wildlife cover and denning habitat. Restoration of wildlife habitat on these reclaimed areas has been quite successful. In Alaska s Arctic home to such animals as polar bears, musk oxen, caribou, wolves, and arctic fox the bitterly cold winters have proven to be beneficial for environmentally responsible energy development. For example, when the North Slope is frozen and snow-covered, seismic trains can travel across it to gather geophysical information. Furthermore, companies have adopted innovative techniques to reduce the possible impacts of exploration and development. In Alaska s National Petroleum Reserve, the footprint from most exploratory wells on federal lands is short-lived and has minimal impact due to the use of ice roads and ice pads that melt with the spring thaw. Advances in extended-reach drilling technologies have also served to minimize environmental effects during energy production activities. A lengthy 1999 Department of Energy study examined the environmental benefits of new exploration and production technologies and concluded that improvements over the past 40 years have dramatically reduced industry s footprint on the fragile tundra, have minimized waste produced, and have protected the land for resident and migrating wildlife. The same study concluded that it is important to tell this remarkable story of environmental progress in E&P [exploration and production] technology. Greater awareness of the industry s achievements in environmental protection will provide the context for effective policy, and for informed decision-making by both the private and public sectors. Waste Management Vigilant management and careful disposal of waste from energy extraction and production can prevent the contamination of our air, land, and water. Federal and state authorities are working to ensure that energy projects maintain sound programs to safely handle wastes from mining, drilling, generation and transmission. Nuclear power plants present waste management challenges unique among energy-generating technologies. They generate spent fuel, as well as other radioactive waste, which must be isolated from ecosystems and human contact for long periods of time. Currently, spent fuel is stored at reactor sites in a number of states, although capacity is limited. Newer technologies have been developed to reduce the volume and 3-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

52 increase the manageability of spent fuel, but such spent fuel will still require safe handling and long-term isolation. While the federal government has the responsibility to address such high-level wastes, states have the responsibility to address low-level wastes from nuclear plants, such as clothing and equipment. Disposal options for this type of radioactive waste are limited, because siting these facilities has been controversial. In fact, there are only three disposal facilities active in the United States. Accidental Releases Since the passage of the Oil Pollution Act in 1990, which, among other things, required double-hulled vessels and improved industry readiness, oil spilled in coastal zone waters has decreased from almost 8 million gallons in 1990 to just over 1 million gallons in Most energy production facilities implement comprehensive risk-management plans, which reduce the potential for accidents and help local officials prepare for accidents that may arise. In contrast, inland oil spills do not appear to be decreasing at the same rate as coastal spills. The federal government receives many more inland oil spill notifications (9,000 notifications a year in the early 1990s versus 10,000 to 12,000 a year in the late 1990s), and many very large inland oil spills occur each year (over 100,000 gallons). The continued problem with inland oil spills may be due to aging pipelines, storage tanks, and other infrastructure components. Since the advent of commercial nuclear power generation, there have been no radiation-related injuries or deaths associated with the operation of a commercial nuclear power plant in the United States. The most significant incident from a nuclear plant in the United States, at Three Mile Island in 1979, prompted improved safety regulation of nuclear plants. New nuclear reactor designs promise even higher safety levels than the reactors currently operating in this country. Radiation exposure from nuclear facilities is extremely rare. In fact, roughly 82 percent of human exposure to radiation comes from natural sources: radon gas; the human body, which contains radioactive elements; outer space; and rocks and soil. Radon accounts for about 55 percent of our exposure to natural sources of radiation; radioactive elements in our own bodies account for 11 percent; rocks and soil account for 11 percent; and outer space, including the sun, accounts for 8 percent. The remaining 18 percent of average human radiation exposure comes from man-made sources, primarily medical and dental X-rays and consumer products. The safety of U.S. nuclear energy plants has improved sharply in recent years. A safe nuclear energy plant is one that runs well, experiences few unplanned outages, and has a well-disciplined work force that follows procedures and avoids accidents. The safety of a U.S. nuclear energy plant is typically gauged by monitoring indicators of its performance in these areas: unplanned automatic reactor shutdowns, the annual percentage of possible power generated, and the industrial safety accident rate for plant workers. In 2000, for the fourth year in a row, the number of unscheduled reactor shutdowns was zero. The industry generated 91.1 percent of its potential maximum output, breaking its 1999 record of 88.7 percent, far better than the typical 80 percent number of ten years ago. Today, U.S. nuclear plants are more efficient and safer than ever. In the increasingly deregulated marketplace, competition has forced improvements in plant operations that have benefited safety performance as much as economic performance. Climate Change Energy-related activities are the primary sources of U.S. man-made greenhouse gas emissions, representing about 85 percent of the U.S. man-made total carbonequivalent emissions in Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment 3-10

53 Forests can absorb carbon dioxide, which accounts for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions. Working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Research, Illinova Generating Company has voluntarily committed to reforesting 100,000 acres of bottomland hardwood forests on National Wildlife Refuges in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Scientists continue to learn more about global climate change, its causes, potential impacts, and possible solutions. The United States recognizes the seriousness of this global issue as scientists attempt to learn more about climate change. The United States is making progress in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Recent data show that the rate of growth in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions has begun to decline, even as the U.S. economy has been growing at an unprecedented rate. For example, historically U.S. CO 2 emissions have grown at roughly half the rate of GDP. In recent years, however, very robust growth in the nation s GDP has been accompanied by a slowdown in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. In both 1998 and 1999, U.S. GDP grew by more than 4 percent a year, while CO 2 emissions grew by less than 1.5 percent a year. In addition, the carbon intensity of the U.S. economy the amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of GDP declined by 15 percent during the 1990s. The United States has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy efficiency and the broader use of renewable energy through a wide range of public-private partnership programs. These programs save energy, cut energy bills, enhance economic growth, and reduce emissions of conventional air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases. The U.S. government, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations are sequestering carbon, at home and abroad. For example, working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Research, Illinova Generating Company has voluntarily committed to reforesting 100,000 acres of bottomland hardwood forests on National Wildlife Refuges in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. It is projected that this project will sequester approximately 13.5 million tons of carbon, improve fish and wildlife populations by restoring the natural forest wetland habitats, and enhance the Gulf of Mexico s near-shore aquatic environment by restoring natural forested wetland filters to the Mississippi River floodplain. Industry and the federal government are researching various new technologies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester those emissions, in geologic formations, oceans, and elsewhere NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

54 Regulatory Structure The United States has adopted many regulatory protections to limit the environmental damage and public health consequences of the exploration, extraction, production, and use of energy. Most environmental controls are implemented through state or federal permitting or review systems, which often require time for agency review and public participation. Facilities may need several different permits or reviews from different agencies, and they may also need to meet local licensing or zoning laws. Businesses have an interest in moving expeditiously to respond to consumers needs. The public also has an interest in participating in the system to ensure that appropriate health and environmental precautions will be taken. Regulatory requirements are not static. New scientific information and new control technologies result in new regulations and modifications to existing regulations over time. However, some level of certainty in the regulatory environment is important for all parties. Businesses can plan more effectively in such an environment, and regulators can focus on ensuring that the desired outcomes are in fact achieved consistently. For example, studies have shown that if electricity generators knew today what their emission requirements for several emissions would be for a defined time period, they would most likely control emissions more cost effectively and sooner than if their emission requirements were decided upon one gas at a time. Traditional permit and regulatory programs may not always be the most effective and efficient way to protect the environment. Increasingly, regulatory programs are considering approaches that include market-based incentives. These types of incentives offer advantages over traditional forms of regulation because they set high performance standards and then allow market forces to determine the most effective way to meet them. While not appropriate for every situation, market-based incentives can control pollution at a lower cost to society than traditional regulation, stimulate technological improvements, and be structured to achieve larger reductions in pollution than would result from traditional regulations. A good example of a U.S. marketbased program is the Acid Rain Program, which has reduced SO 2 air emissions from utilities at a fraction of the initial cost estimates. Other emerging market-based environmental protection mechanisms include effluent trading, wetland mitigation banks, tradable development rights, easement purchases, off-site mitigation, and leasing or purchasing of water rights. These programs can reduce mitigation or pollution control costs, increase business flexibility, and provide transparency and environmental protection for the public. Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment 3-12

55 The environmental review process can also be made more open, understandable, predictable, and coordinated among federal agencies and with state and local agencies. It can be improved by providing greater information to clarify expectations for energy developers, facilitating concurrent reviews by federal agencies by standardizing certain information needs, sharing information received by project applicants, and seeking opportunities to integrate required environmental processes and reviews. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President issue an Executive Order to rationalize permitting for energy production in an environmentally sound manner by directing federal agencies to expedite permits and other federal actions necessary for energy-related project approvals on a national basis. This order would establish an interagency task force chaired by the Council on Environmental Quality to ensure that federal agencies responsible for permitting energy-related facilities are coordinating their efforts. The task force will ensure that federal agencies set up appropriate mechanisms to coordinate federal, state, tribal, and local permitting activity in particular regions where increased activity is expected NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

56 Summary of Recommendations Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to propose multi-pollutant legislation. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA Administrator to work with Congress to propose legislation that would establish a flexible, market-based program to significantly reduce and cap emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury from electric power generators. Such a program (with appropriate measures to address local concerns) would provide significant public health benefits even as we increase electricity supplies. Establish mandatory reduction targets for emissions of three main pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury. Phase in reductions over a reasonable period of time, similar to the successful acid rain reduction program established by the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act. Provide regulatory certainty to allow utilities to make modifications to their plants without fear of new litigation. Provide market-based incentives, such as emissions trading credits to help achieve the required reductions. The NEPD Group recommends the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to work with Congress to create the Royalties Conservation Fund. This fund will earmark potentially billions of dollars in royalties from new oil and gas production in ANWR to fund land conservation efforts. This fund will also be used to eliminate the maintenance and improvements backlog on federal lands. The NEPD Group recommends the President issue an Executive Order to rationalize permitting for energy production in an environmentally sound manner by directing federal agencies to expedite permits and other federal actions necessary for energy-related project approvals on a national basis. This order would establish an interagency task force chaired by the Council on Environmental Quality to ensure that federal agencies responsible for permitting energy-related facilities are coordinating their efforts. The task force will ensure that federal agencies set up appropriate mechanisms to coordinate federal, state, tribal, and local permitting activity in particular regions where increased activity is expected. Chapter 3 Protecting America s Environment: Sustaining the Nation s Health and Environment

57 C H A P T E R F O U R Using Energy Wisely Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency The Department of Energy has installed two low-sulfur light bulbs as a test at its Forrestal Building headquarters in Washington, D.C. The two golf ball-sized bulbs, like those on the opposite page, are at each end of a 240-foot, 10-inch-wide reflective plastic light pipe. U.S. DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY Energy efficiency is the ability to use less energy to produce the same amount of lighting, heating, transportation, and other energy services. For a family or business, conserving energy means lower energy bills. For the country as a whole, greater energy efficiency helps us make the most of U.S. energy resources, reduces energy shortages, lowers our reliance on energy imports, mitigates the impact of high energy prices, and reduces pollution. Improvements in efficiency can be particularly effective in reducing energy demand when energy is most expensive. Conservation and energy efficiency are important elements of a sound energy policy. Improved energy efficiency is the result of many decisions, including those of individual consumers; manufacturers of cars and appliances; home builders; and state, federal, and local government officials. The federal government can promote energy efficiency and conservation by including the dissemination of timely and accurate information regarding the energy use of consumers purchases, setting standards for more energy efficient products, and encouraging industry to develop more efficient products. The federal government can also promote energy efficiency and conservation through programs like the Energy Star program, and search for more innovative technologies that improve efficiency and conservation through research and development. Since 1973, the U.S. economy has grown nearly five times faster than energy use (126 percent versus 26 percent). Had Americans continued to use energy as intensively as in 1970, the U.S. would have consumed about 177 quadrillion Btus of energy last year, compared to about 99 quadrillion Btus actually consumed. U.S. DEPARTMENTOF ENERGY British Thermal Unit (Btu) A British thermal unit is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit at sea level. Put another way, it is approximately the same amount of energy contained in a wooden match head. 4-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

59 Figure 4-1 New Refrigerator-Freezers are Using Less Energy Consumption per Unit for New Shipments (Kilowatt-Hours per Year) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Over the last thirty years, the energy efficiency of refrigerator-freezer appliances has increased by approximately 70 percent. Sources: AHAM 2000 Major Home Industry Fact Book and BTS appliance standard. Figure 4-2 The U.S. Economy Has Become More Energy Efficient (Thousands of Btus) 20 Improving Efficiency through Innovative Technologies One measure of energy efficiency is energy intensity the amount of energy it takes to produce a dollar of gross domestic product (GDP). While about half of the long-term decline in energy intensity can be attributed to changes in the economy, especially the shift from manufacturing to services, the other half reflects improved energy efficiency. Gains in energy efficiency over the last three decades were built on a combination of technological improvements, better management practices, and learning to put these technologies and practices to their best use in automobiles, homes, offices, factories, and farms. In many areas the results have been quite impressive. New home refrigerators use about one-third of the electricity they used in 1972 (Figure 4-1). Compact fluorescent lights use about 25 percent of the electricity of the incandescent bulbs they replace. Automobiles use roughly 60 percent of the gasoline they did in 1972 per mile driven. These individual technological improvements have resulted in significant reductions in energy use (Figure 4-2). Several new and innovative technologies offer expanded opportunities to improve our energy efficiency. For example, advanced sensors and controls enable more efficient operation of buildings and factories, and allow equipment and lights to be turned off or dimmed when not in use. Hybrid vehicles use power electronics and battery storage to get more out of every gallon of gasoline consumed, and provide the ability to double vehicle mileage. Cogeneration of electricity and heat and combined heat and power allow for the productive use of much of the waste heat from electricity production, which accounts for about two-thirds of the energy used to produce electricity. District Energy St. Paul A Combined Heat and Power Plant District Energy St. Paul, Inc., is a combined heat and power plant that can operate on natural gas, oil, or cleanburning coal that is mixed with wood chips. These wood wastes come from downed trees, trimmings, and branches. District Energy has been able to keep its rates stable because it is able to rely on a diverse fuel supply. District Energy serves about 75 percent of all building space in the city. Nearly 150 large buildings and 3,200 residential units use the system. It is the largest system of its kind in the nation The amount of energy used by the United States in relation to its economic output has steadily declined since the early 1970s. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to conduct a review of current funding and historic performance of energy efficiency research and development programs in light of the recommendations of this report. Based on this review, the Secretary of Energy is then directed to propose appropriate funding of those research and development programs that are performance-based and are modeled as public-private partnerships. 4-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

60 Consumer Choices The two most important factors in consumers decisions about purchasing an energy efficient product are price and the life of the product. When energy prices are high, consumers tend to weigh energy efficiency more heavily. Unless consumers are informed about the price of energy, they may not have the incentive to select the most energy efficient product. Consumers do not receive timely signals about rising electricity costs in order to make adjustments to their energy use and efficiency. When consumers peak costs are averaged with off-peak costs, the higher cost of peak electricity supplies is masked. As a result, consumers may not recognize the benefits of investing in technologies that best target peak consumption. Some energy efficiency improvements are easiest and most cost effective to undertake when first building new factories, cars, equipment, appliances, and buildings. Some energy-using equipment, like computers, are used for only a few years before being replaced. Other equipment is used from five to twenty years, such as home appliances, home electronics, and lighting systems. Some capital stock, such as buildings and boilers, can last a half a century or more. The average car now lasts fourteen years, and newer cars have even more longevity. Vehicle efficiency improvements require significant technological changes. Development of new-car production models requires at least three to four years, which limits the rate at which new technologies can enter the market. Making fundamental changes, such as switching to the use of a fuel cell, would take even longer. Once those new vehicles are in the showroom, it then takes several more years before they constitute any sizable percentage of total vehicles. In a typical U.S. home, appliances are responsible for about 20 percent of the energy bills. Refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, dryers, dishwashers, and ranges and ovens are the primary energy-using appliances in most households. Taking steps to save energy while using these appliances, and replacing old inefficient appliances with modern ones can save money. The federal government established a mandatory program in the 1970s requiring that certain types of new appliances bear a label to help consumers compare the energy efficiency of various products. Under this program, all refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, and dishwashers are sold with yellow Energy Guide labels to indicate their energy efficiency. These labels provide an estimated annual operating cost of the appliance, and also indicate the cost of operating the models with the highest annual operating cost and the lowest annual operating cost. By comparing a model s annual operating cost with the operating cost of the most efficient model, you can compare their efficiencies. This labeling program ensures that consumers have the information they need to make the right decisions when they purchase major home appliances. However, Energy Guide labels are not currently required for some products, such as kitchen ranges, microwave ovens, clothes dryers, on demand water heaters, portable space heaters, and lights. The federal government not only ensures consumers have information on the energy efficiency of major home appliances. It also promotes the most energy efficient products through the Energy Star program, a joint program run by the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Some efficiency improvements are easiest and most cost-effective to undertake when first building new factories, cars, equipment, appliances and buildings. Chapter 4 Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency 4-4

61 pliances, and services. Strengthen Department of Energy public education programs relating to energy efficiency. In April 2001, the Sustainable Buildings Industry Council showcased a netzero-energy home featuring passive solar design strategies, an integrated photovoltaic system, domestic solar hot water, high-efficiency lights and appliances, and a host of sustainable, marketready components and systems. SUSTAINABLE BUILDINGS INDUSTRY COUNCIL A 48-story skyscraper at the corner of Broadway and 42nd Street in New York City has a photovoltaic skin that uses thin-film PV panels to replace traditional glass cladding material. The PV curtain wall extends from the 35th to the 48th floors on the south and east walls of the tower, making it a highly visible part of the New York City skyline. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Agency. Energy Star is only awarded to appliances that significantly exceed minimum energy efficiency standards. The Energy Star program does not extend to all products. Energy efficiency would be further promoted if the Energy Star program were expanded to a broader range of products. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to promote greater energy efficiency. Expand the Energy Star program beyond office buildings to include schools, retail buildings, health care facilities, and homes. Extend the Energy Star labeling program to additional products, ap- Energy efficiency can also be improved by the establishment of minimum energy efficiency standards. Congress enacted legislation in 1987 and 1988 to establish minimum energy efficiency standards for many major appliances. These standards apply to manufacturers, not consumers. Appliance manufacturers must produce products that meet the minimum level of energy efficiency. These rules do not affect the marketing of products manufactured before the standards went into effect, and any products made beforehand can be sold. The new standards will stimulate energy savings that benefit the consumer, and reduce fossil fuel consumption, thus reducing air emissions. These laws established minimum energy efficiency standards for many appliances, including refrigerators, refrigeratorfreezers, freezers, room air conditioners, fluorescent lamp ballasts, and incandescent reflector lamps, clothes dryers, clothes washers, dishwashers, kitchen ranges, and ovens, pool heaters, and water heaters. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 added standards for fluorescent and incandescent reflector lamps, plumbing products, electric motors, and commercial water heaters, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. Under current law, the Department of Energy can raise the minimum energy efficiency standards for these appliances if certain criteria are met, such as cost, technological feasibility, and the impact on competition among appliance manufacturers. In addition, the Department can set energy efficiency standards for appliances not covered by these laws. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to take steps to improve the energy efficiency of appliances. 4-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

62 Support appliance standards program for covered products, setting higher standards where technologically feasible and economically justified. Expand the scope of the appliance standard program, setting standards for additional appliances where technologically feasible and economically justified. Energy Efficiency Government Agencies As the largest energy consumer in the nation, the U.S. government s cost- and energy-saving opportunity is enormous. In 1999, the government consumed nearly 1.1 percent of all U.S. energy and spent nearly $8 billion for its vehicles, operations, and its nearly 500,000 buildings. The federal government has reduced its energy use in buildings by about 30 percent from 1990 levels, largely by installing energy efficient technologies (Figure 4-3). It has reduced its energy use for vehicles and equipment by 35 percent. Some of these improvements are attributable to the Department of Energy, whose Federal Energy Management Program helps government agencies reduce their energy and water use, manage their utility costs, and promote renewable energy. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct heads of executive departments and agencies to take appropriate actions to conserve energy use at their facilities to the maximum extent consistent with the effective discharge of public responsibilities. Agencies located in regions where electricity shortages are possible should conserve especially during periods of peak demand. Agencies should report to the President, through the Secretary of Energy, within 30 days of the conservation actions taken. State and local governments have unique opportunities for energy savings in schools, transportation, state buildings, and building codes. For example, the Texas School Energy Management Program could save school districts as much as $100 million in energy costs every year by helping school districts evaluate their energy needs and resources. Similarly, Wisconsin s Energy Initiative is working with utilities to make basic changes to public buildings. By installing new lighting fixtures and taking other steps, Wisconsin estimates that it will save $60 million in state spending on energy over ten years. Residential and Commercial Buildings There are significant opportunities to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and homes through technologies and better practices. For existing homes, immediate options for improving efficiency include reducing air infiltration with caulking and weather stripping, installing modern thermostats, sealing ductwork, and adding insulation. These steps can reduce the 40 percent share of residential energy bills that Figure 4-3 The U.S. Government is Reducing Its Energy Consumption (Trillions of Btus) 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, During the 1990s, energy use in federal buildings decreased by about 30 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 4 Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency 4-6

63 PULTE HOMES Building America Pulte Homes Pulte Homes Southwest Division has used technical assistance from the Department of Energy s Building America program to create what one residential expert calls the best production house in the world, which won the 2001 National Association of Home Builders Energy Value Award. In Tucson, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, Pulte Homes has worked with the Department of Energy to redesign the energy features of its basic models. Using advanced insulation techniques, highly efficient equipment and windows, and right-sized heating and cooling systems, the homes look the same, but perform so well they use half the energy for heating and cooling at virtually no increase in construction costs. The whole building/systems engineering approach used in the Building America program allows builders to add more insulation and more efficient windows while reducing the size of the heating and cooling equipment. The trade-off means no added cost to the builder, better value for the buyer, reduced electric load for the utility, and improved affordability. go toward heating and cooling. Additional savings are possible when efficient appliances are purchased or major home renovations are undertaken. Installing a new, more efficient gas furnace can save up to 20 percent annually on natural gas. New buildings offer the greatest energy efficiency opportunities and can be designed to be both more comfortable and more efficient, cutting heating and cooling costs by close to 50 percent. In commercial buildings, typically the quickest, most cost effective way to increase energy efficiency is to replace the lighting systems. Sensors help to avoid 24- hour operation of lights and equipment that are only used for a portion of the day. As with homes, advances in windows, heating and air conditioning systems, overall building designs, and equipment and appliances present significant energy saving opportunities. Many families and businesses can face obstacles to realizing energy cost reductions. Insufficient Information Monthly energy bills generally report only total electricity or natural gas used, leaving families and businesses unsure about which energy services are most responsible for their energy use, and which investments could best help them reduce their costs. In addition, consumers may be unsure about the credibility of the energysaving claims of individual manufacturers, salesmen, and designers. This incomplete information causes imperfections in the marketplace that hinder purchases of efficient technologies that would actually save families and businesses money. Lack of Availability Frequently, the most energy efficient products cost more and are not widely available, especially in smaller communities. Builders who would like to construct more efficient homes and businesses face the same problem at the wholesale level. For example, to keep costs down, builders are less likely to install top-of-the-line, 4-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

64 highly efficient products. The less expensive and generally less efficient products are heavily stocked and deeply discounted due to volume ordering. The decisions made about the energy efficiency of buildings and homes are not usually made by the consumer who will ultimately pay the energy bills. The incentive is for the builders to choose the material that poses the least cost to the builder, which is not necessarily the most energy efficient choice. Lack of Automation People often walk out of their offices and homes with the lights on and the air conditioner running. Turning off unused appliances, electronics, and lights is not always easy. Lack of automation (e.g., daylight sensors) means that conservation mostly depends on people turning off switches. Some appliances and electronics, such as stereos, video tape players, and televisions, continue to use electricity even after they are turned off. Higher Initial Costs Efficient products often cost more than less efficient versions, especially when they are first introduced to the market. Unless consumers can verify the resulting savings, they may be reluctant to pay the additional costs. Businesses that adopt labeling programs that spell out energy savings may be more successful in selling a more efficient, yet initially more expensive product. Higher initial costs can be particularly difficult for the purchaser or builder of a new home or office building. Industry and Agriculture Six industries consume three-quarters of all industrial energy: lumber and paper; chemicals; petroleum refining; primary metals; food processing; and stone, clay, and glass. Improved energy efficiency in these energy-intensive industries yields even larger improvements in overall productivity, product quality, safety, and pollution prevention. Manufacturing companies generally obtain their largest savings from improved efficiency of motors (motors account for 54 percent of electricity use in manufacturing) and from improved steam and hot-water systems. Many companies can reduce energy needs further by cogenerating their electricity and heat for steam. Energy use for U.S. agriculture grew during the 1960s and 1970s, peaking in High energy prices during the 1970s and early 1980s caused many farmers to find ways to reduce their energy costs, such as by switching from gasoline-powered to more fuel-efficient dieselpowered engines, adopting conservation tillage practices, shifting to larger multiprocessor machines, and using energy saving methods for drying and irrigating crops. These measures helped farmers reduce their energy use by 41 percent from 1978 to 1998, while agricultural output grew by about 40 percent over the same period. Farmers can reap additional energy savings as they replace old machinery with more energy efficient equipment. Furthermore, farmers can adopt more advanced practices, such as precision farming, that optimize the use of machines, chemicals, and fertilizers to achieve energy savings. New seed varieties can also reduce energyintensive chemical requirements. Despite the opportunity for increased energy efficiency, the industrial and agricultural sectors face several obstacles. Because many manufacturing and farming operations are highly specialized, they need specific information on energy-saving opportunities to effectively respond to energy price signals and supply problems. High energy prices during the 1970s and early 1980s caused many farmers to find ways to reduce their energy costs, such as by switching from gasoline-powered to more fuel efficient dieselpowered engines and by adopting conservation tillage practices. Chapter 4 Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency 4-8

65 Cogeneration In 1998, Malden Mills Industries, a textile manufacturer employing 2,300 workers in Lawrence, Massachusetts, installed a state-of-the-art combined heat and power (CHP) facility. The system uses two 4.3 MW industrial gas turbines, retrofitted with ceramic combustion liners, that were developed as part of the Department of Energy s Advanced Turbine Systems program, and that enable higher operating temperatures and lower emissions. The CHP system saves Malden Mills more than $1 million annually. The liners have accumulated more than 9,500 hours of successful operation and have cut emissions of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide to less than 15 parts per million. In order for manufacturing or agriculture to switch to more efficient energy products and practices, significant costs are incurred due to production delays, waste and spoilage, and labor costs. As a result, manufacturers and farmers tend to use readily available and reliable equipment when upgrading, instead of untested, newer products and approaches. Because of their large needs for both heat and electricity, businesses find combined heat and power (CHP) systems particularly attractive. However, replacing old, inefficient boilers with highly efficient CHP systems may add a number of new regulatory requirements (such as air permits), but does not offer the same tax depreciation incentives the tax code grants to power plants. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with the Congress on legislation to encourage increased energy efficiency through combined heat and power (CHP) projects by shortening the depreciation life for CHP projects or providing an investment tax credit. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to work with local and state governments to promote the use of well-designed CHP and other clean power generation at brownfield sites, consistent with the local communities interests. EPA will also work to clarify liability issues if they are raised at a particular site. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA Administrator to promote CHP through flexibility in environmental permitting. Conservation can be improved by car pooling, telecommuting, increasing public transit choices, and pricing highway use during periods of peak demand. Transportation Transportation plays a key role in a growing U.S. economy, comprising 16 percent of GDP in 1998, 10.5 percent of total employment, and 27 percent of total U.S. energy consumption. Trucks and automobiles account for over three-fourths of the sector s petroleum use, with the remainder attributable to rail, ship, air, and pipeline systems. Mass transit ridership has increased by 21 percent since Automobiles today use roughly 60 percent of the gasoline they did in 1972 per mile driven, due in part to new technology, such as better engine and design controls, improved transmission, weight reduction, and improved aerodynamics. Despite the adoption of more efficient transportation technologies, average fuel economy for passenger vehicles has remained relatively flat for ten years and is, in fact, at a twenty-year low, in large part due to the growth and popularity of low-fuel-economy pickup trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles (Figure 4-4). Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Transportation to: Review and provide recommendations on establishing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards with due consideration of the National Academy of Sciences study to be released in July Responsibly crafted CAFE standards should increase efficiency without negatively impacting the U.S. automotive industry. The determination of future fuel economy standards must therefore be addressed analytically and based on sound science. Consider passenger safety, economic concerns, and disparate impact on the U.S. versus foreign fleet of automobiles. Look at other market-based approaches to increasing the national average fuel economy of new motor vehicles. 4-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

66 Opportunities for reducing oil demand in the transportation sector include increasing conservation, vehicle efficiency, and alternative fuels. Conservation can be improved by car pooling, telecommuting, and increasing transit choices. For example, an increase in the average fuel economy of the on-road vehicle fleet by three miles per gallon would save one million barrels of oil a day, or about half of the global shortfall between supply and demand that triggered the oil price increases since In addition, fuel conservation can be further improved by technologies to reduce congestion. A recent analysis indicates that the fuel economy of a typical automobile could be enhanced by 60 percent by increasing engine and transmission efficiency and reducing vehicle mass by about 15 percent. Several promising efficiency technologies are being presented to the U.S. market. For example, some automobile manufacturers have already introduced hybrid vehicles, and others have announced that they will introduce hybrid vehicles within the next several years. Advanced lightweight materials offer up to 6 percent improvement in mileage for each 10 percent reduction in body weight. Although promising, it may be many years before hybrids become a substantial part of the automotive fleet. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Transportation to review and promote congestion mitigation technologies and strategies and to work with the Congress on legislation to implement these strategies. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to increase energy efficiency with a tax credit for fuel-efficient vehicles. The NEPD Group recommends that a temporary, efficiencybased income tax credit be available for purchase of new hybrid or fuel cell vehicles between 2002 and Higher Initial Production Costs Because of the large economies of scale in automobile manufacturing, new technologies with limited early production runs often enter the market at higher initial costs. In this highly competitive international market, higher initial production costs can be a significant impediment to the introduction of new technologies. Unless U.S. automakers can remain competitive with their overseas counterparts, it is unlikely they will invest in new, more efficient technologies. Vehicle efficiency technologies, such as advanced engines, fuel cells, and cutting-edge electronic drive-train technologies, will become widely available only when component costs are reduced or demand is increased. Hybrid Vehicles The engine of a conventional gasoline vehicle is typically sized for the small amount of time the driver spends accelerating to enter the freeway, to pass another car, or to climb a hill. Most of the time it operates at less than 20 percent efficiency. An attractive alternative is to use a hybrid system that allows the engine to operate at peak efficiency, and get a boost from a battery when entering the freeway or climbing a hill. Not only does this system allow improved performance from a smaller engine, but the energy usually lost in stopping the car can be recovered and stored in the battery. What does this mean to the average American? Significantly improved fuel economy and reduced emissions. Figure 4-4 Fuel Efficiency of Light Vehicles Has Remained Flat (Miles per Gallon) New Cars Combined New Trucks Despite the adoption of more efficient transportation technologies, U.S. average fuel economy has been flat for 10 years. In large part, this is due to the growth of low-fueleconomy pickup trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 4 Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency 4-10

67 Summary of Recommendations Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Office of Science and Technology Policy and the President s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology to review and make recommendations on using the nation s energy resources more efficiently. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to conduct a review of current funding and historic performance of energy efficiency research and development programs in light of the recommendations of this report. Based on this review, the Secretary of Energy is then directed to propose appropriate funding of those research and development programs that are performance-based and are modeled as public-private partnerships. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to promote greater energy efficiency. Expand the Energy Star program beyond office buildings to include schools, retail buildings, health care facilities, and homes. Extend the Energy Star labeling program to additional products, appliances, and services. Strengthen Department of Energy public education programs relating to energy efficiency. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to improve the energy efficiency of appliances. Support the appliance standards program for covered products, setting higher standards where technologically feasible and economically justified. Expand the scope of the appliance standards program, setting standards for additional appliances where technologically feasible and economically justified. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct heads of executive departments and agencies to take appropriate actions to conserve energy use at their facilities to the maximum extent consistent with the effective discharge of public responsibilities. Agencies located in regions where electricity shortages are possible should conserve especially during periods of peak demand. Agencies should report to the President, through the Secretary of Energy, within 30 days on the conservation actions taken. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress to encourage increased energy efficiency through combined heat and power (CHP) projects by shortening the depreciation life for CHP projects or providing an investment tax credit. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to work with local and state governments to promote the use of well-designed CHP and other clean power generation at brownfields sites, consistent with the local communities interests. EPA will also work to clarify liability issues if they are raised at a particular site. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA Administrator to promote CHP through flexibility in environmental permitting. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Transportation to: Review and provide recommendations on establishing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards with due consideration of the National Academy of Sciences study to be released in July Responsibly 4-11 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

68 crafted CAFE standards should increase efficiency without negatively impacting the U.S. automotive industry. The determination of future fuel economy standards must therefore be addressed analytically and based on sound science. Consider passenger safety, economic concerns, and disparate impact on the U.S. versus foreign fleet of automobiles. Look at other market-based approaches to increasing the national average fuel economy of new motor vehicles. The new NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Transportation to review and promote congestion mitigation technologies and strategies and work with Congress on legislation to implement these strategies. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to increase energy efficiency with a tax credit for fuel-efficient vehicles. The NEPD Group recommends that a temporary, efficiency-based income tax credit be available for purchase of new hybrid fuel cell vehicles between 2002 and The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct all agencies to use technological advances to better protect our environment. The Administration remains committed to investing in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and encourages the private sector to invest in ITS applications. This Department of Transportation (DOT) program funds the development of improved transportation infrastructure that will reduce congestion, such as traveler information/navigation systems, freeway management, and electronic toll collection. ITS applications reduce fuel associated with travel. The Administration remains committed to the DOT s fuel-cell-powered transit bus program, authored by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). This program demonstrates the viability of fuel-cell power plants for transit bus applications. The Administration remains committed to the Clean Buses program. TEA-21 establishes a new clean fuel formula grant program, which provides an opportunity to accelerate the introduction of advanced bus propulsion technologies into the mainstream of the nation s transit fleet. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA and DOT to develop ways to reduce demand for petroleum transportation fuels by working with the trucking industry to establish a program to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from long-haul trucks at truck stops by implementing alternatives to idling, such as electrification and auxiliary power units at truck stops along interstate highways. EPA and DOT will develop partnership agreements with trucking fleets, truck stops, and manufacturers of idle-reducing technologies (e.g., portable auxiliary packs, electrification) to install and use low-emission-idling technologies. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to establish a national priority for improving energy efficiency. The priority would be to improve the energy intensity of the U.S. economy as measured by the amount of energy required for each dollar of economic productivity. This increased efficiency should be pursued through the combined efforts of industry, consumers, and federal, state, and local governments. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the EPA Administrator to develop and implement a strategy to increase public awareness of the sizable savings that energy efficiency offers to homeowners across the country. Typical homeowners can save about 30 percent (about $400) a year on their home energy bill by using Energy Star-labeled products. Chapter 4 Using Energy Wisely: Increasing Energy Conservation and Efficiency 4-12

69 C H A P T E R F I V E Energy for a New Century Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies America s energy strength lies in the abundance and diversity of its energy resources, and in its technological leadership in de veloping and efficiently using these resources. Our nation has rich deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas. The United Figure 5-1 U.S. Energy Production: (Quadrillion Btus) Hydropower Non-hydro Renewables Coal Production of coal, the nation s most abundant fuel source, exceeded 1 billion tons in Electricity generation accounted for about 90 percent of U.S. coal consumption last year. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Oil Nuclear Natural Gas States is the third-largest oil-producing nation in the world, despite a thirty-year decline in domestic production. While our economy runs primarily on fossil fuels, we also have long experience with hydropower and nuclear energy. We are pursuing the ability to further capture the energy of sunlight, the heat of the earth, and the power of wind. Economic factors will help determine the future development of our nation s energy sources. These factors will be shaped not only by conservation, energy demand, and the cost of energy development, but also by the regulations that federal, state, and local governments put in place to balance energy needs with legitimate competing aims, including the protection of the environment. A number of factors will make it difficult to increase domestic energy production in response to the growing demand for energy: economic and technological factors associated with depletion of the fossil fuel resource base in the U.S.; regulatory uncertainty; limitations on access to federal lands with high potential for new discoveries; infrastructure constraints, such as electricity transmission and gas pipeline bottlenecks; and conflicts with legitimate land use, environmental, and other public policy goals. The United States has significant domestic energy resources, and remains a major energy producer. Between 1986 and 2000, production of coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy increased. However, these increases have been largely offset by declines in oil production (Figure 5-1). U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE 5-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

71 Even with improved energy efficiency, the United States will need more energy supply. U.S. energy demand is projected to rise to 127 quadrillion Btus by 2020, even with significantly improved energy efficiency. However, domestic production is expected to rise to only 86 quadrillion Btus by The shortfall between projected energy supply and demand in 2020 is nearly 50 percent. That shortfall can be made up in only three ways: import more energy; improve energy efficiency even more than expected; and increase domestic energy supply. The challenge for our nation is to use technology to maintain and enhance the diversity of our supplies, thus providing a reliable and affordable source of energy for Americans. These goals can and must be accomplished while maintaining our commitment to environmental protection. Oil and Natural Gas Oil and natural gas are the dominant fuels in the U.S. economy, providing 62 percent of the nation s energy and almost 100 percent of its transportation fuels. By 2020, the Energy Information Administration expects the United States will need about 50 percent more natural gas and one-third more oil to meet demand. U.S. oil production is expected to decline over the next two decades. Over the same period, demand for natural gas will most likely continue to outpace domestic production. As a result, the United States will rely increasingly on imports of both natural gas and oil from Canada, and imports of oil and liquefied natural gas from producers across the globe. Figure 5-2 SOUND WAVES ARE REFLECTED DIFFERENTLY BY EACH MATERIAL MILES LOOKING FOR OIL Images generated by supercomputers allow geologists to locate small pockets of oil or gas. DRILLING TECHNOLOGY Old drills were limited to a single vertical well, but newer wells can drill horizontally or spread in different directions to tap small pockets of oil. Alpine Field National Petroleum Reserve B E Kuparuk River Field A TRANSPORTING THE OIL A 14-inch pipeline connects the Alpine field to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline about 60 miles west of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a site proposed for new drilling. U F O R Trans-Alaska Pipeline POSSIBLE POCKET OF OIL OR GAS T 0 Miles 20 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge DRILL WELL OLD: VERTICAL DRILLI STEERABLE MOTOR Area of detail P O 21 st Century Technology Remaining U.S. oil reserves are becoming increasingly costly to produce because much of the lower-cost oil has already been largely recovered. The remaining resources have higher exploration and production costs and greater technical challenges, because they are located in geologically complex reservoirs, (e.g., deep water TRANSPORTING THE OIL Today s drills are sophisticated, steerable machines with instruments that send information about the exact position of the drill bit and properties of the rock to the drilling team. Sources: Phillips Petroleum Company, Chevron Corporation, BP Amoco, Magic Earth, Arctic Connections. DRILL BIT: MADE OF STEEL AND/OR TUNGSTEN 5-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

72 Using the Latest Drilling Technology to Reduce Environmental Damage Oil drilling sites like those in the Alpine field on Alaska s North Slope are using cutting-edge technology in hopes of reducing environmental damage. Recent advances are lessening the industry s impact on the fragile Arctic ecosystem. BP Amoco PIPELINE TO THE TRANS- ALASKA PIPELINE A PIPELINE ELEVATED 5 FT. ALLOWS THE CROSSING OF CARIBOU ALPINE FIELD, ALASKA MUD/ROCK PUMPING, CRUSHING AND INJECTION GETTING THERE To minimize the project s impact on the environment, temporary ice roads are used in the winter, leaving few traces after they thaw. DRILL NG ermafrost il NEW: DIRECTIONAL AND MULTILATERALDRILLING EXTENDS HORIZONTALLY, TURNING IN DIFERRENT DIRECTIONS TO AVOID DIFFICULT MATERIALS MULTILATERAL DRILLING ALLOWS ONE WELL TO REACH DIFFERENT OIL POCKETS DISPOSING OF OIL FIELD WASTES MUD LAYER OIL LAYER DISPOSING OF WASTES Mud and debris from drilling used to be placed in big reserve pits. Today, rock cuttings are crushed, mixed with the mud, and sent deep into the earth where they originated. This minimizes the size of well pads. W E Sea level Pipeline Permafrost CROSSING A RIVER alaska DIAMOND CUTTING PARTS 13 ACRES 11 ACRES 1985 DRILLSITE SIZE 24 ACRES MILES 5 ACRES M. Although traditional pipelines are built above ground, the pipeline to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline plunges beneath the Colville River, preserving the surface and the river bed environment MILES 5 MILES SUBSURFACE DRILLABLE AREA OCCUPYING LESS OF THE TUNDRA The new drilling technology allows for smaller surface production pads and larger areas explored in the earth. Source: New York Times News Service Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-4

73 21st Century Technology: The Key to Environmental Protection and New Energy Production Producing oil and gas from geologically challenging areas while protecting the environment is important to Americans and to the future of our nation s energy security. New technology and management techniques allow for sophisticated energy production as well as enhanced environmental protection. A technology evolution has occurred in the way oil and natural gas are found. The computer, three dimensional seismic technology, and other technologies have transformed the process from one based on feel, to one highly dependent on the most advanced and sophisticated technology available. These technologies reduce cost and protect the environment. Today s oil and gas exploration technology, for example, is boosting the success rate of pinpointing new resources. The results: fewer dry holes, reduced waste volumes, and a cleaner environment. Smaller, lighter drilling rigs coupled with advances in directional and extended-reach drilling significantly increase protection of the environment. Advanced, more energy efficient drilling and production methods: reduce emissions; practically eliminate spills from offshore platforms; and enhance worker safety, lower risk of blowouts, and provide better protection of groundwater resources. With each improvement in operational performance and efficiency, more oil and gas resources can be recovered with fewer wells drilled, resulting in smaller volumes of: cuttings; drilling muds and fluids; and produced waters. Modular drilling rigs, slimhole drilling, directional drilling, and other advances enable: production of oil and gas with increased protection to wetlands and other sensitive environments; reduced greenhouse gas emissions; and worker safety through the use of innovative best management practices. Other examples of advanced technology include: : 3-D seismic technology that enables geologists to use computers to determine the location of oil and gas before drilling begins, dramati cally improving the exploration success rate; deep-water drilling technology that enables exploration and produc tion of oil and gas at depths over two miles beneath the ocean s sur face; high-powered lasers that may one day be used for drilling for oil and gas; and highly sophisticated directional drilling that enables wells to be drilled long horizontal distances from the drilling site. 5-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

74 and harsh environments). While the resource base that supplies today s natural gas is vast, U.S. conventional production is projected to peak as early as Increasingly, the nation will have to rely on natural gas from unconventional resources, such as tight sands, deep formations, deep water, and gas hydrates. Also, many resources are in environmentally sensitive areas that require use of less intrusive technologies. New technologies are being developed to reduce both the environmental effects and the economic costs of exploration for oil and gas. These exciting new technologies, like horizontal drilling and three-dimensional seismic technology allow for much greater precision and significantly less impact on the environment (Figure 5-2). Small independent businesses account for 50 and 65 percent, respectively, of domestic petroleum and natural gas production in the lower 48 states. However, even when new technology is available, independent producers can lack the investment capital needed to apply the technology and be unable to cope with the increased economic and technical risks associated with harder-to-recover resources. For example, most new gas wells drilled in the United States will require hydraulic fracturing. This is a common procedure used by producers to complete gas wells by stimulating the well s ability to flow increased volumes of gas from the reservoir rock into the wellbore. During a fracture procedure, fluid and a propping agent (usually sand) are pumped into the reservoir rock, widening natural fractures to provide paths for the gas to migrate to the wellbore. In certain formations, it has been demonstrated that the gas flow rate may be increased as much as twenty-fold by hydraulic fracturing. Each year nearly 25,000 oil and gas wells are hydraulically fractured. The use of hydraulic fracturing in natural gas production from coal seams is one of the fastest-growing sources of gas production. This source will most likely face added controls, and costs to ensure that disposal (by re-injection or discharge) of production waters is done in an environmentally sensitive manner. For each of these issues, opportunities exist to better coordinate, improve performance, and meet America s energy, public health, safety and environmental goals. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of Energy and the Interior to promote enhanced oil and gas recovery from existing wells through new technology. Anywhere from 30 to 70 percent of oil, and 10 to 20 percent of natural gas, is not recovered in field development. It is estimated that enhanced oil recovery projects, including development of new recovery techniques, could add about 60 billion barrels of oil nationwide through increased use of existing fields (Figure 5-3). Figure 5-3 Major U.S. Oil and Gas Fields The United States is the most mature oil-producing region in the world, and much of our easy-to-find resource base has been delpeted. Advanced exploration and production technologies of the past two decades have played a key role in recovering additional oil and natural gas from existing fields. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Public Lands Leasing The federal government owns about 31 percent of the nation s land, so it can have a major role in increasing energy production in appropriate places. A large portion of U.S. energy resources are contained in these federal lands and offshore areas. Public lands provide nearly 30 percent of Small independent businesses account for 50 and 65 percent, respectively, of domestic petroleum and natural gas production in the lower 48 states. Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-6

75 annual national energy production, and are estimated to contain a substantial majority of the nation s undiscovered domestic energy resources. Portions of federal onshore and offshore lands are off-limits to oil and gas exploration and development. Access is restricted for a variety of reasons, including administrative land withdrawals for competing land uses, such as national defense or water projects; and stipulations affecting surface occupancy, use, and timing for environmental compatibility. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to examine land status and lease stipulation impediments to federal oil and gas leasing, and review and modify those where opportunities exist (consistent with the law, good environmental practice, and balanced use of other resources). Expedite the ongoing Energy Policy and Conservation Act study of impediments to federal oil and gas exploration and development. Review public lands withdrawals and lease stipulations, with full public consultation, especially with the people in the region, to consider modifications where appropriate. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to consider economic incentives for environmentally sound offshore oil and gas development where warranted by specific circumstances: explore opportunities for royalty reductions, consistent with ensuring a fair return to the public where warranted for enhanced oil and gas recovery; for reduction of risk associated with production in frontier areas or deep gas formations; and for development of small fields that would otherwise be uneconomic. Offshore Congress has designated about 610 million acres off limits to leasing on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), which contains large amounts of recoverable oil and gas resources. These Congressional moratoria have been expanded by Presidential action through 2012, effectively confining the federal OCS leasing program to the central and western Gulf of Mexico, a small portion of the eastern Gulf, existing leases off California s shore, and areas off of Alaska. Concerns over the potential impacts of oil spills have been a major factor behind imposition of the OCS moratoria. For areas that are available for possible development, it is projected that with advanced technology, we could recover 59 billion barrels of oil and 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This type of exploration and production from the OCS has an impressive environmental record. For example, since 1985, OCS operators have produced over 6.3 billion barrels of oil, and have spilled only percent of production. Naturally occurring oil seeps add about 150 times as much oil to the oceans. Additionally, about 62 percent of OCS energy production is natural gas, which poses little risk of pollution. For those areas that are available for potential coastal zone and OCS exploration and production activity, businesses must comply with a variety of federal and state statutes, regulations, and executive orders. Aspects of these, under the Coastal Zone Management Act and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act and their regulations, attempt to provide for responsible development while considering important environmental resources. However, effectiveness is sometimes lost through a lack of clearly defined requirements and information needs from federal and state entities, as well as uncertain deadlines during the process. These delays and uncertainties can hinder proper energy exploration and production projects. The Deep Water Royalty Relief Act of 1995, granting variable royalty reductions for new leases in deep water, contributed to a significant increase in deep-water leasing in the central and western Gulf over the last five years. The opportunities created in deep water help spur the development of new 5-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

76 technologies and infrastructure for this frontier area. However, substantial economic risks remain to investment in deep water and continued incentives could help draw investment in other countries. Similar incentives could spur development in other technological frontiers, such as deep gas, or make possible continued production from both offshore and onshore fields near the end of their economic life. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of Commerce and Interior to re-examine the current federal legal and policy regime (statutes, regulations, and Executive Orders) to determine if changes are needed regarding energy-related activities and the siting of energy facilities in the coastal zone and on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Arctic Outer Continental Shelf It is estimated there are significant undiscovered resources in the two planning areas of the Arctic OCS. Geologists estimate that there are approximately 22.5 billion barrels of oil and 92 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Arctic OCS. The Beaufort Sea Planning Area encompasses approximately 65 million acres. Active leases within the Beaufort Sea Planning Area represent only 0.4 percent of the total acreage, and only 5 percent of the leased acreage is being actively pursued for development and production. The Chukchi Sea Planning Area encompasses approximately 63.7 million acres, none of which is currently leased. Lease offerings totaling 58 million acres over the past twenty years have resulted in 34 exploratory wells. Two oil discoveries are now moving toward production, but economic factors have delayed several others. These discoveries have estimated recoverable reserves of more than 260 million barrels of oil. This is another area where periodic, well-scheduled lease sales can help contribute to national energy production. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior continue OCS oil and gas leasing and approval of exploration and development plans on predictable schedules. Onshore North Slope Oil and Gas The Alaska North Slope is a promising area for discovery of additional reserves to increase our domestic production of oil and natural gas. Currently, state lands on Alaska s North Slope provide about 17 percent of U.S. oil production. Oil and gas development in the Arctic, however, needs to be done in an environmentally responsible manner, using new technology and relying upon on the best available scientific information. Such technology is making it possible to explore and develop oil and gas with significantly less impact on the environment. Areas with potential for oil and gas development are the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPR A), the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf, and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The high-technology oil industry requires an educated, technologically sophisticated work force. Many workers left the industry in the mid-1980s because of job insecurity caused by price volatility. The lack of an experienced work force today may limit the amount and increase the cost of future exploration and production activity. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-8

77 National Petroleum Reserve Alaska The National Petroleum Reserve Alaska lies between the Brooks Range and the Arctic Ocean. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates a high potential for oil and gas resources in the NPR A, with a mean estimate of 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 8.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. A leasing program was designed and initiated in 1999 for the northeast sector of NPR A, resulting in the award of 133 leases covering 900,000 acres. Eight exploratory wells have been completed in the past two years, and additional exploratory wells are expected this coming winter. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to consider additional environmentally responsible oil and gas development, based on sound science and the best available technology, through further lease sales in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Such consideration should include areas not currently leased within the Northeast corner of the Reserve. Arctic National Wildlife Refuge The Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act expanded ANWR from 9 million acres to 19 million acres, and designated 8 million acres as wilderness. Congress specifically left open the question of management of a 1.5-million-acre Arctic Coastal Plain area of ANWR because of the likelihood that it contains significant oil and gas resources. Section 1002 of the Act directed the Department of the Interior to conduct geological and biological studies of the Arctic Coastal Plain, the 1002 Area, and to provide to Congress the results of those studies with recommendations on future management of the area. Section 1003 of the Act prohibits leasing of the 1002 Area until authorized by an act of Congress. In 1987, after more than five years of biological baseline studies, surface geological studies, and two seasons of seismic exploration surveys, the Department of the Interior recommended to Congress that the 1002 Area be leased for oil and gas exploration and production in an environmentally sensitive manner. In 1995, both the Senate and the House passed legislation containing a provision to authorize leasing in the 1002 Area, but the legislation was vetoed. In May 1998, the USGS issued revised estimates of oil and gas resources in the 1002 Area. The 1998 USGS assessment shows an overall increase in estimated oil resources when compared to all previous government estimates. The estimate reaffirms the 1002 Area s potential as the single most promising prospect in the United States. The total quantity of recoverable oil within the entire assessment area is estimated to be between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels (95 percent and 5 percent probability range) with a mean value of 10.4 billion barrels. The mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels is just below the amount produced to date from North America s largest field, Prudhoe Bay, since production began 23 years ago. Peak production from ANWR could to be between 1 and 1.3 million barrels a day and account for more than 20 percent of all U.S. oil production. ANWR production could equal 46 years of current oil imports from Iraq. Technological improvements over the past 40 years have dramatically reduced industry s footprint on the tundra, minimized waste produced, and protected the land for resident and migratory wildlife. These advances include the use of ice roads and drilling pads, low-impact exploration approaches such as winter-only exploration activities, and extended reach and throughtubing rotary drilling. These technologies have significantly reduced the size of production-related facilities on the North Slope. Estimates indicate that no more than 2,000 acres will be disturbed if the 1002 Area of ANWR is developed. For purposes of comparison, ANWR is about the size of the state of South Carolina, whereas the developed area is estimated to be less than one-fifth the size of Washington D.C. s Dulles International Airport. 5-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

78 Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to work with Congress to authorize exploration and, if resources are discovered, development of the 1002 Area of ANWR. Congress should require the use of the best available technology and should require that activities will result in no significant adverse impact to the surrounding environment. Figure 5-4 Restricted Natural Gas Resource Areas in the U.S. Lower TCF 137 TCF 24 TCF 31 TCF Other Onshore Restrictions There is a significant potential for oil and gas resources on federal land in the lower 48 states as well. According to the most recent estimates from the USGS and the Minerals Management Service, oil resources underlying federal lands in the lower 48 states are estimated to be 4.1 billion barrels, and natural gas reserves are estimated to be 167 trillion cubic feet (Figure 5-4). Much of these potential resources have been placed off-limits or are subject to significant restrictions. For example, about 40 percent of the natural gas resources on federal land in the Rocky Mountain region have been placed off-limits. The Department of the Interior initiated a study to examine the energy potential and restrictions on development on federal lands in the lower 48 states. In many cases, limits on oil and gas development are appropriate. However, improved technology has helped to reduce the impact of oil and gas development on the environment. Exploration and Production To meet increased natural gas demand in the coming decades, total wells drilled annually will need to double the 1999 level by Very few new onshore rigs have been built since the mid-1980s, because the oil field supply and service sectors have been hit especially hard by price volatility. Major additions to the offshore rig fleet will also be needed just to develop existing leases. The lack of an experienced work force may limit the speed and increase the cost of exploration and production activity. Much of the nation s oil and gas resource base resides on federal lands or in federal waters. A large portion of this is not open to exploration and development. For example, an estimated 40 percent or 137 trillion cubic feet of potential natural gas resource in the Rockies is either closed to exploration (29 tcf) or is open to development under restrictive provisions (108 tcf). Source: U.S.Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Electricity Electricity is an essential part of modern life. When supply fails to keep pace with demand, costs to consumers and businesses rise and reliability falls. The California experience demonstrates the crippling effect that electricity shortages and blackouts can have on a state or region. This summer, the possibility exists for more intense electricity shortfalls in the West, with additional problems possible in New York City and on Long Island. Electricity demand is projected to grow sharply over the next twenty years. Based on current estimates, the United States will need about 393,000 MW of new generating capacity by 2020 to meet the growing demand. If the U.S. electricity demand continues to grow at the high rate it has recently, we will need even more generating capacity. To meet that future demand, the United States will have to build between 1,300 to 1,900 new power plants; that averages out to be more than 60 to 90 plants a year, or more than one a week. Over the next few years, if the demand for electricity continues to grow as predicted, and if we fail to implement a Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-10

79 Electricity demand is projected to rise sharply over the next twenty years. If we fail to build the 1,300 1,900 new power plants needed to increase generation and transmission capacity, current electricity shortages will become more frequent and more widespread. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY comprehensive energy plan that recognizes the need to increase capacity, we can expect our electricity shortage problems to grow. The result will be higher costs and lower reliability. Electricity Restructuring One of the most important energy issues facing the Administration and Congress is electricity restructuring. The electricity industry is going through a period of dramatic change. To provide ample electricity supplies at reasonable prices, states are opening their retail markets to competition. This is the most recent step in a long transition from reliance on regulation to reliance on competitive forces. Changes in Wholesale Electricity Market This transition from regulation to competition began in 1978 with enactment of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, which promoted independent electricity generation. Open-access transmission policies adopted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the late 1980s further promoted competition in wholesale power markets. Congress largely ratified these policies with enactment of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, which further promoted non-utility generation. FERC took another large step to promote competition with its open-access rule in 1996, which provided greater access to the transmission grid, the highway for interstate commerce in electricity. Changes in the Retail Electricity Market Increased competition in wholesale power markets encourages states to open retail electricity markets. Under current law, FERC has jurisdiction over the wholesale power market, while states have jurisdiction over retail markets. Beginning in 1996, states began opening their retail markets to competition in order to lower electricity prices. Twenty-five states have opted to open their retail electricity markets to competition. Most new electricity generation is being built not by regulated utilities, but by independent power producers. These companies assume the financial risk of investment in new generation, and their success rides on their ability to generate electricity at a low cost. These dramatic changes affecting the industry led to important structural changes. Independent power producers, which were once infant industries, now dwarf many utilities. Utility mergers, which were once rare, are now commonplace. U.S. utilities have been purchased by foreign companies, and U.S. utilities have in turn purchased utilities abroad. While utilities had service areas that were limited to a single state or region, independent power producers are international companies that can build power plants across the globe. Many utilities that were once vertically integrated divested themselves of generation, either voluntarily or because of state law. Pending Congressional Action Since 1995, Congress has been grappling with electricity competition legislation. Initial efforts sought to require states to open their retail markets by a date certain. Subsequent efforts focused on promoting competition in electricity markets and complementing state retail competition plans. Under this 5-11 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

80 approach, federal legislation focused on core federal issues, including: regulation of interstate commerce; assuring open access to the interstate and international transmission system; enhancing reliability of the grid; lowering barriers to entry; reforming outdated federal electricity laws, such as the Public Utility Holding Company Act and Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978; reforming the role of federal electric utilities in competitive markets; protecting consumers; and clarifying federal and state regulatory jurisdictions. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to propose comprehensive electricity legislation that promotes competition, protects consumers, enhances reliability, improves efficiency, promotes renewable energy, repeals the Public Utility Holding Company Act, and reforms the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act. The NEPD Group recommends the President encourage FERC to use its existing statutory authority to promote competition and encourage investment in transmission facilities. California Electricity Crisis The California electricity crisis is not a test of the merits of competition in electricity markets. Instead, it demonstrates that a poorly designed state retail competition plan can have disastrous results if electricity supply does not keep pace with increased demand. At heart, the California electricity crisis is a supply crisis. California allowed demand to outstrip supply, and did little to lower barriers to entry through reform of an inflexible siting process. The risk that the California experience will repeat itself is low, since other states have not modeled their retail competition plans on California s plan. The California crisis also shows that state electricity markets do not stay neatly confined within legal and jurisdictional bounds. Due to regional interconnection, disastrous mistakes made by the State of California have dire effects on the entire West. California s failure to reform flawed regulatory rules affecting the market drove up wholesale prices. Actions such as forcing utilities to purchase all their power through volatile spot markets, imposing a single-price auction system, and barring bilateral contracts all contributed to the problems that California now faces. Lessons Learned from Successful Deregulation As stated previously, 25 states have decided to open their retail electricity markets. A comparison of the different approaches taken by California and other states demonstrates that competition will benefit consumers if implemented effectively. A better gauge of the potential for retail competition to lower prices can be found in Pennsylvania, where electricity prices have fallen significantly as a result of competition. There is also reason to believe that the plan in Texas will have similar success. A major difference between the California experience and the approaches taken by Pennsylvania and Texas is that the latter states ensured they had adequate electricity supplies. Pennsylvania and Texas took steps to ensure that procedures for adding new power plants were efficient. Unlike California, which imports 25 percent of its electricity, Pennsylvania is a net exporter of power, and Texas imports almost no power from other states. For these reasons, Pennsylvania and Texas have ample electricity supply to meet demand, while California is confronting a serious supply shortage. In addition, California required its utilities to divest themselves of much of their generation, unlike Pennsylvania and Texas. This action forced California utilities to rely much more heavily on buying power, at ever-increasing prices, instead of generating power themselves. Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-12

81 Another major difference is that Pennsylvania and Texas did not require their utilities to purchase electricity through volatile spot markets. This requirement, combined with frozen retail rates imposed by the State, forced California utilities to purchase power at much higher costs than could be passed along to the consumer. As a result, the California regulatory plan resulted in unreliable service, destroyed the financial health of the State s utilities, and drove one utility into bankruptcy. The federal government does not site power plants; that is a responsibility of the states. For that reason, delays relating to the construction of new power plants are usually the result of state action. A number of federal agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of the Interior, do issue air and other permits for generation facilities. Some of the concerns about permitting or review delays in other states can be similarly addressed by expediting processes. These agencies, pursuant to President Bush s Executive Order, have expedited permit-processing applications for energy production in California. Some of the concerns about permitting or review delays in other states can be similarly addressed by expediting processes.for example, in , the time for issuing air permits (including the time for public participation) for turbines was reduced to three to four months (compared to the twelve months allowed by the regulations) for the majority of permit applications. Fuels for Electricity Generation Electricity is not a primary source of energy. It is generated by the use of primary energy sources (Figure 5-5). Coal, nuclear energy, natural gas and hydropower account for about 95 percent of total electricity generation, with oil and renewable energy contributing the remainder. Despite this healthy diversity of energy sources, each type of electricity resource is faced with constraints to maintaining or expanding its contribution to electricity production. Coal Coal is used almost exclusively to generate electricity. Coal power plants account for over 50 percent of all U.S. electricity generation, and over 80 percent of generation in twelve states in the Midwest, Southeast, and West. Coal electricity generation costs are low, and coal prices have proved remarkably stable. In 1999, the United States produced 1.1 billion tons of coal. Production of coal from federal and tribal lands, which has increased substantially in the past decade, accounted for 38 percent of this total. Although coal is the nation s most abundant fossil energy source, production and market issues can affect the adequacy of supply. Production issues include the protection of public health, safety, property, and the environment, and the effectiveness of federal and state agencies implementing various laws governing coal mining. These issues have resulted in some coal resources becoming uneconomical to produce. Statutory, regulatory, and administrative difficulties also may limit or prevent the production of some coal resources. However, technological advances in cleaner coal technology have allowed for significant progress toward reducing these barriers. There are also opportunities to protect the environment while lowering costs through further improvements in technology. Over the past decade, greater efficiencies, lower capital costs, fewer emissions and quicker start-up times have made power plants fueled by natural gas a more attractive choice for new coal generation. Recently, however, rising natural gas prices have renewed interest in building coal power plants. Uncertainty about future environmental controls is of particular concern for companies that operate existing coal power plants. Regulations under development include a variety of measures requiring reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, and mercury. In addition, rules related to discharges to streams and coolingwater intake structures, possible regulation of large-volume wastes as hazardous wastes, 5-13 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

82 uncertainty over rules requiring air permits for certain modifications to power plants, and uncertainty over global and domestic efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions also play a role. This regulatory uncertainty discourages power producers from building coal power plants and is one reason the Unites States is relying so heavily on natural gas power generation to meet growing electricity demand. Much of the current uncertainty has resulted because regulators do not weigh the cumulative impacts of their proposals. Compliance decisions by businesses concerning each new regulation must often be made without the benefit of clear information regarding additional requirements that may be imposed. More effective and economical compliance strategies are possible if companies know the full range of requirements with which they must comply. If rising U.S. electricity demand is to be met, then coal must play a significant role. Under current policies, in the next two decades, nuclear electricity generation and hydropower are projected to decline. Natural gas electricity generation is projected to increase from about 16 to 36 percent of total generation, which would require the tripling of natural gas used for electricity generation. Significantly, this projected increase in natural gas genera- Figure 5-5 Electricity Generation by Fuel: Current Trends (Billions of Kilowatt-Hours) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Electricity Demand 1,392 4, Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Oil Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration tion assumes that coal electricity generation will continue to account for about 50 percent of U.S. electricity generation. If policies are adopted that sharply lower coal electricity generation, then the likely result is an even greater dependence on natural gas generation. This creates concern about the adequacy of natural gas supplies and policies. Clean Coal Technology Technology has been and will continue to be a key to achieving our energy, economic, and environmental goals. In recent years, technological advancements through efforts of both the public and private sectors have led to substantial reductions in the cost of controlling sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions, while the effectiveness of control systems increased significantly. The Department of Energy, through its Clean Coal Technology Program, has worked to provide effective control technologies. These nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide control technologies have moved into the utility marketplace and now provide a means to achieve cost effective regulatory compliance. For example, most power plants that can use low nitrogen oxide burners have now installed them, and about 25 percent of all coal power plants have either ordered or installed selective catalytic reduction technology, which reduces nitrogen oxide emissions. Technologies like fluidized-bed combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle have been developed that further reduce emissions. Fluidized-bed combustion is a low-emitting nitrogen oxide combustion technology that allows the use of fuels, such as coal pile washer waste, that were not formerly usable. Integrated gasification combined cycle is a relatively new technology that uses refinery waste as fuel. Future coal electricity generation will need to meet new challenges to reduce emissions even further, especially mercury emissions. The Department of Energy is supporting efforts to develop more cost effective control technology. Indeed, the goal Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-14

83 Clean Coal Technology Clean Coal Technology describes a category of technologies that allow for the use of coal to generate electricity while meeting environmental regulations at low cost. In the short term, the goal of the program is to meet existing and emerging environmental regulations, which will dramatically reduce compliance costs for controlled mercury, NOx, SO 2, and fine particulate at new and existing coal power plants. In the mid-term, the goal of the program is to develop low-cost, superclean coal power plants, with efficiencies 50 percent higher than today s average. The higher efficiencies will reduce emissions at minimal costs. In the long term, the goal of the program is to develop low-cost, zeroemission power plants with efficiencies close to double that of today s fleet. of these research, development, and demonstration programs is to develop and demonstrate coal power systems with near zero environmental emissions, while maintaining low production costs. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recognizes the importance of looking to technology to help us meet the goals of increasing electricity generation while protecting our environment. To that end, the NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Department of Energy to continue to develop advanced clean coal technology by: Investing $2 billion over 10 years to fund research in clean coal technologies. Supporting a permanent extension of the existing R&D tax credit. Directing agencies to explore regulatory approaches that will encourage advancements in environmental technology. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct federal agencies to provide greater regulatory certainty relating to coal electricity generation through clear policies that are easily applied to business decisions. Nuclear Energy Nuclear energy accounts for 20 percent of all U.S. electricity generation, and more than 40 percent of the electricity generation in ten states in the Northeast, the South, and the Midwest. Despite the closure of several less efficient plants during the 1990s, the 103 U.S. nuclear energy plants currently operating produce more electricity today than at any time in history. There are a number of reasons why nuclear energy expansion halted in the 1980s. Regulatory changes implemented after the Three Mile Island incident in 1979 lengthened the licensing period to an average of fourteen years, resulting in large cost overruns. Increased public concern about the safety of nuclear energy after the accident often resulted in active opposition to proposed plants. As a result, the last completed nuclear energy plant in the United States was ordered in Since the 1980s, the performance of nuclear energy plant operations has substantially improved. While U.S. nuclear energy plants once generated electricity only around 70 percent of the time, the average plant today is generating electricity close to 90 percent. This improved performance has lowered the cost of nuclear generation, which is now competitive with other sources of electricity (Figure 5-6). There is potential for even greater generation from existing nuclear energy plants. Experts estimate that 2,000 MW could be added from existing nuclear power plants by increasing operating performance to 92 percent. In addition, about 12,000 MW of additional nuclear electricity generation could be derived from uprating U.S. nuclear power plants, a process that uses new technologies and methods to increase rated power levels without decreasing safety. However, modifications to uprate plants can be expensive and require extensive licensing review and approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Another way to increase nuclear generation from existing plants is through license renewal. Many nuclear utilities are planning to extend the operating license of existing nuclear plants by twenty years, and the licenses of as many as 90 percent of the currently operating nuclear plants may be renewed. The nuclear energy industry is closely regulated by the NRC, which provides rigorous oversight of the operation and maintenance of these plants. This oversight includes a comprehensive inspection program that focuses on the most significant potential risks of plant operations and features full-time resident inspectors at each plant, as well as regional inspectors with specialized expertise. The NRC has made great strides to provide greater regulatory certainty while maintaining high safety standards NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

84 The installation of new design features, improvements in operating experience, nuclear safety research, and operator training have all contributed to the strong safety record of the nuclear energy industry. Since the Three Mile Island incident in 1979, the nuclear industry s safety record has significantly improved. This safety record has been achieved through a defense-in-depth philosophy accomplished by way of engineering design, quality construction, safe operation, and emergency planning. This philosophy provides for diverse and redundant systems to prevent accidents from occurring, as well as multiple safety barriers to mitigate the effects of accidents in the highly unlikely event they do occur. Over the last several years, utilities have begun purchasing nuclear plants from other operators as the industry undergoes consolidation. Several nuclear utilities have merged, creating management teams with extensive expertise in running and maintaining nuclear plants. These mergers are impeded by tax rules relating to the transfer of decommissioning funds. Utilities are also considering nuclear energy as an option for new generation. The NRC Figure 5-6 Nuclear Generation is Competitively Priced (1998 Cents per Kilowatt-Hour) Coal 2 0 Oil Gas Nuclear Note: Fuel costs are included. Source: Utility Data Institute via the Nuclear Energy Institute. has certified three standardized nuclear power plant designs, and Congress enacted legislation in 1992 to reform the nuclear licensing process. Under this process, a utility can apply for a combined construction and operating license for one of these standardized designs in a streamlined process. This reformed licensing process provides for site permits a way to resolve siting issues early in the process. Building new generators on existing sites avoids many complex issues associated with building plants on new sites. Many U.S. nuclear plant sites were designed to host four to six reactors, and most operate only two or three; many sites across the country could host additional plants. Advanced reactor technology promises to improve nuclear safety. One example of an advanced reactor design is the gas-cooled, pebble-bed reactor, which has inherent safety features. The industry has an interest in this and other advanced reactor designs. The federal government must also provide for the safe disposal of nuclear waste. At present, nuclear waste continues to be stored at local plant sites. The Department of Energy is over a decade behind schedule for accepting nuclear waste from utilities, but has made progress toward characterization of the Yucca Mountain, Nevada site. Construction of an exploratory studies facility has been completed, a viability assessment was published, and recently scientists placed their extensive research about Yucca Mountain on the record for public scrutiny. However, key regulatory standards to protect public health and the environment at the repository have not been issued. The Administration will continue to study the science to determine whether to proceed with the consideration of this site as the location for the repository. If the Administration decides to proceed, the Department of Energy must file a license application with the NRC. No waste will be sent to any location until the NRC determines it to be safe. Other countries have developed different approaches for nuclear waste disposal. For example, the French, British and Japanese rely on reprocessing, an in- Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-16

85 Calvert Cliffs is the first U.S. nuclear plant to receive a renewed license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The renewal will allow the plant to continue producing environmentally sound electricity for an additional twenty years. CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP dustrial approach that separates nuclear waste into usable fuel and highly concentrated waste. While this approach does not obviate the need for geologic disposal of nuclear waste, it could significantly optimize the use of a geologic repository. There is growing interest in new technology known as accelerator transmutation, which could be used in combination with reprocessing to reduce the quantity and toxicity of nuclear waste. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President support the expansion of nuclear energy in the United States as a major component of our national energy policy. Following are specific components of the recommendation: Encourage the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to ensure that safety and environmental protection are high priorities as they prepare to evaluate and expedite applications for licensing new advancedtechnology nuclear reactors. Encourage the NRC to facilitate efforts by utilities to expand nuclear energy generation in the United States by uprating existing nuclear plants safely. Encourage the NRC to relicense existing nuclear plants that meet or exceed safety standards. Direct the Secretary of Energy and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to assess the potential of nuclear energy to improve air quality. Increase resources as necessary for nuclear safety enforcement in light of the potential increase in generation. Use the best science to provide a deep geologic repository for nuclear waste. Support legislation clarifying that qualified funds set aside by plant owners for eventual decommissioning will not be taxed as part of the transaction. Support legislation to extend the Price Anderson Act. The NEPD Group recommends that, in the context of developing advanced nuclear fuel cycles and next generation technologies for nuclear energy, the United States should reexamine its policies to allow for research, development and deployment of fuel conditioning methods (such as pyroprocessing) that reduce waste streams and enhance proliferation resistance. In doing so, the United States will continue to discourage the accumulation of separated plutonium, worldwide. The United States should also consider technologies, in collaboration with international partners with highly developed fuel cycles and a record of close cooperation, to develop reprocessing and fuel treatment technologies that are cleaner, more efficient, less waste-intensive, and more proliferationresistant NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

86 Hydropower Although hydropower generation accounts for only about 7 percent of overall U.S. electricity generation, the following states depend heavily on this source of energy: Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Maine, South Dakota, California, Montana, and New York. Hydropower generation has remained relatively flat for years. The most significant constraint on expansion of U.S. hydropower generation is physical; most of the best locations for hydropower generation have already been developed. Potential does remain for some increases in hydropower generation, and capacity can be optimized by adding additional turbines and increasing efficiency at existing facilities. Also, the amount of hydropower generation depends upon the quantity of available water. A drought can have a devastating effect on a region that depends on hydropower. In fact, this year s water availability has been a contributing factor in California s electricity supply shortages. The amount of hydropower generation depends upon the quantity of available water. A drought can have a devastating effect on a region that depends on hydropower. In fact, this year s water availability has been a contributing factor in California s electricity supply shortages. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is required to incorporate mandatory conditions proposed by different state and federal resource agencies into hydropower licenses. Decision-making authority in the licensing process is diffused among a host of federal and state agencies, all of which are pursuing different statutory missions. The hydropower licensing process is prolonged, costly, and poses regulatory uncertainty. The challenge is to efficiently and effectively balance national interests in natural resource and environmental preservation with energy needs. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recognizes there is a need to reduce the time and cost of the hydropower licensing process. The NEPD Group recommends that the President encourage the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and direct federal resource agencies to make the licensing process more clear and efficient, while preserving environmental goals. In addition, the NEPD Group recognizes the importance of optimizing the efficiency and reliability of existing hydropower facilities, and will encourage the Administration to adopt efforts toward that end. Support administrative and legislative reform of the hydropower licensing process. Direct federal resource agencies to reach interagency agreement on conflicting mandatory license conditions before they submit their conditions to FERC for inclusion in a license. Encourage FERC to adopt appropriate deadlines for its own actions during the licensing process. Natural Gas Currently, natural gas provides about 16 percent of U.S. electricity generation. Seven states obtain over one-third of their generation from natural gas (Rhode Island, new York, Delaware, Louisiana, Texas, California, and Alaska). Perhaps more importantly, natural gas-fired electricity is projected to constitute about 90 percent of capacity additions between 1999 and The amount of natural gas used in electricity generation is projected to triple by Ensuring the long-term availability of adequate, reasonably priced natural gas supplies is a challenge. Low gas prices in 1998 and 1999 caused the industry to scale back gas exploration and production activity. Since 2000, the North American natural gas market has remained tight due to strong demand and diminished supplies. Last year, natural gas prices quadrupled, which resulted in substantially higher prices for electricity generated with natural gas. Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-18

87 High-tech power plants, like this combined cycle plant, are signaling a new age in electric power generation. The capability to co-produce electricity and a slate of fuels and chemicals makes the technology economically attractive to a broad range of industrial applications. TAMPA ELECTRIC COMPANY While the largest barriers to expanded natural gas electricity generation relate to production and pipeline constraints, there are several other barriers. Environmental regulations affect the use of gas for electricity generation. Although natural gas electric plants produce fewer emissions than coal-fired power plants, they still emit nitrogen oxides, carbon dioxide and small, amounts of toxic air emissions. Oil While oil fuels only about 3 percent of total U.S. electricity generation, it is the dominant source of electricity generation in Hawaii, and provides over 20 percent of the generation in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, and Florida. Over the next twenty years, market conditions are expected to reduce today s level of oil electricity generation by about 80 percent. Renewable Energy Hydropower is, to date, the most successful form of renewable energy. However, some forms of renewable energy generation wind, geothermal, and biomass have the potential to make more significant contributions in coming years, and the cost of most forms of renewable energy has declined sharply in recent years. The most important barrier to increased renewable energy production remains economic; nonhydropower renewable energy generation costs are greater than other traditional energy sources. The following chapter discusses renewable and alternative energy in greater detail NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

88 Summary of Recommendations Energy for a New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of Energy and the Interior to promote enhanced oil and gas recovery from existing wells through new technology. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to improve oil and gas exploration technology through continued partnership with public and private entities. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to examine land status and lease stipulation impediments to federal oil and gas leasing, and review and modify those where opportunities exist (consistent with the law, good environmental practice, and balanced use of other resources). Expedite the ongoing Energy Policy and Conservation Act study of impediments to federal oil and gas exploration and development. Review public lands withdrawals and lease stipulations, with full public consultation, especially with the people in the region, to consider modifications where appropriate. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to consider economic incentives for environmentally sound offshore oil and gas development where warranted by specific circumstances: explore opportunities for royalty reductions, consistent with ensuring a fair return to the public where warranted for enhanced oil and gas recovery; for reduction of risk associated with production in frontier areas or deep gas formations; and for development of small fields that would otherwise be uneconomic. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of Commerce and Interior to re-examine the current federal legal and policy regime (statutes, regulations, and Executive Orders) to determine if changes are needed regarding energy-related activities and the siting of energy facilities in the coastal zone and on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior continue OCS oil and gas leasing and approval of exploration and development plans on predictable schedules. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to consider additional environmentally responsible oil and gas development, based on sound science and the best available technology, through further lease sales in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Such consideration should include areas not currently leased within the Northeast corner of the Reserve. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior work with Congress to authorize exploration and, if resources are discovered, development of the 1002 Area of ANWR. Congress should require the use of the best available technology and should require that activities will result in no significant adverse impact to the surrounding environment. Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-20

89 The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to work with Congress and the State of Alaska to put in place the most expeditious process for renewal of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System rights-of-way to ensure that Alaskan oil continues to flow uninterrupted to the West Coast of the United States. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to propose comprehensive electricity legislation that promotes competition, protects consumers, enhances reliability, promotes renewable energy, improves efficiency repeals the Public Utility Holding Company Act, and reforms the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act. The NEPD Group recommends that the President encourage FERC to use its existing statutory authority to promote competition and encourage investment in transmission facilities. The NEPD Group recognizes the importance of looking to technology to help us meet the goals of increasing electricity generation while protecting our environment. To that end, the NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Department of Energy to continue to develop advanced clean coal technology by: Investing $2 billion over 10 years to fund research in clean coal technologies. Supporting a permanent extension of the existing research and development tax credit. Directing federal agencies to explore regulatory approaches that will encourage advancements in environmental technology. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct federal agencies to provide greater regulatory certainty relating to coal electricity generation through clear policies that are easily applied to business decisions. The NEPD Group recommends that the President support the expansion of nuclear energy in the United States as a major component of our national energy policy. Following are specific components of the recommendation: Encourage the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to ensure that safety and environmental protection are high priorities as they prepare to evaluate and expedite applications for licensing new advanced-technology nuclear reactors. Encourage the NRC to facilitate efforts by utilities to expand nuclear energy generation in the United States by uprating existing nuclear plants safely. Encourage the NRC to relicense existing nuclear plants that meet or exceed safety standards. Direct the Secretary of Energy and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to assess the potential of nuclear energy to improve air quality. Increase resources as necessary for nuclear safety enforcement in light of the potential increase in generation. Use the best science to provide a deep geologic repository for nuclear waste. Support legislation clarifying that qualified funds set aside by plant owners for eventual decommissioning will not be taxed as part of the transaction. Support legislation to extend the Price Anderson Act NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

90 The NEPD Group recommends that, in the context of developing advanced nuclear fuel cycles and next generation technologies for nuclear energy, the United States should reexamine its policies to allow for research, development and deployment of fuel conditioning methods (such as pyroprocessing) that reduce waste streams and enhance proliferation resistance. In doing so, the United States will continue to discourage the accumulation of separated plutonium, worldwide. The United States should also consider technologies (in collaboration with international partners with highly developed fuel cycles and a record of close cooperation) to develop reprocessing and fuel treatment technologies that are cleaner, more efficient, less waste-intensive, and more proliferation-resistant. The NEPD Group recognizes there is a need to reduce the time and cost of the hydropower licensing process. The NEPD Group recommends that the President encourage the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and direct federal resource agencies to make the licensing process more clear and efficient, while preserving environmental goals. In addition, the NEPD Group recognizes the importance of optimizing the efficiency and reliability of existing hydropower facilities and will encourage the Administration to adopt efforts toward that end. Support administrative and legislative reform of the hydropower licensing process. Direct federal resource agencies to reach interagency agreement on conflicting mandatory license conditions before they submit their conditions to FERC for inclusion in a license. Encourage FERC to adopt appropriate deadlines for its own actions during the licensing process. Chapter 5 Energy for A New Century: Increasing Domestic Energy Supplies 5-22

91 C H A P T E R S I X Nature s Power Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy Renewable hydropower has long provided a significant contribution to the U.S. energy supply. Today, hydropower is competitive with other forms of conventionally generated electricity. Asound national energy policy should encourage a clean and diverse portfolio of domestic energy supplies. Such diversity helps to ensure that future generations of Americans will have access to the energy they need. Renewable energy can help provide for our future needs by harnessing abundant, naturally occurring sources of energy, such as the sun, the wind, geothermal heat, and biomass. Effectively harnessing these renewable resources requires careful planning and advanced technology. Through improved technology, we can ensure that America will lead the world in the development of clean, natural, renewable and alternative energy supplies. Renewable and alternative energy supplies not only help diversify our energy portfolio; they do so with few adverse envi- ronmental impacts. While the current contribution of renewable and alternative energy resources to America s total electricity supply is relatively small only 9 percent the renewable and alternative energy sectors are among the fastest growing in the United States. Non-hydropower only account for 2 percent of our electricity needs. However, electricity generation from nonhydropower renewable energy grew by nearly 30 percent in the 1990s. Continued growth of renewable energy will continue to be important in delivering larger supplies of clean, domestic power for America s growing economy. Renewable energy resources tap naturally occurring flows of energy to produce electricity, fuel, heat, or a combination of these energy types. One type of renewable energy, hydropower, has long provided a significant contribution to the U.S. energy supply and today is competitive with other forms of conventional electricity. However, there is limited growth potential for hydropower. Non-hydropower renewable energy is generated from four sources: biomass, geothermal, wind, and solar (Figure 6-1). The United States has significant potential for renewable resource development. These nondepletable sources of energy are domestically abundant and often have less impact on the environment than conventional sources. They can provide a reliable source of energy at a stable price, and they can also generate income for farmers, landowners, and others who harness them. 6-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

93 Figure 6-1 U.S. Resource Potential for Renewable Energy Biomass and Biofuel Resources Solar Insolation Resources Potential Kilowatts per County greater than 40,000 5,000 40, ,000 Resource Potential 7+ kwh/m 2 /day 6+ kwh/m 2 /day 4+ kwh/m 2 /day 3+ kwh/m 2 /day Geothermal Resources Wind Resources Resource Potential Good Excellent Fair Moderate Resource Potential Moderate Good Excellent Almost every state has the potential for wind energy and for biomass and biofuel production. The Southwest has the greatest potential for solar energy, and geothermal energy resources are most abundant in the West. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of the Interior and Energy to reevaluate access limitations to federal lands in order to increase renewable energy production, such as biomass, wind, geothermal, and solar. Alternative energy includes: alternative fuels that are transportation fuels other than gasoline and diesel, even when the type of energy, such as natural gas, is traditional; the use of traditional energy sources, such as natural gas, in untraditional ways, such as for distributed energy at the point of use through microturbines or fuel cells; and future energy sources, such as hydrogen and fusion. Both renewable and alternative energy resources can be produced centrally or on a distributed basis near their point of use. Providing electricity, light, heat, or mechanical energy at the point of use diminishes the 6-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

94 need for some transmission lines and pipelines, reducing associated energy delivery losses and increasing energy efficiency. Distributed energy resources may be renewable resources, such as biomass cogeneration in the lumber and paper industry or rooftop solar photovoltaic systems on homes, or they may be alternative uses of traditional energy, such as natural gas microturbines. Recommendations: The NEPD Group supports the increase of $39.2 million in the FY 2002 budget amendment for the Department of Energy s Energy Supply account that would provide increased support for research and development of renewable energy resources. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to conduct a review of current funding and historic performance of renewable energy and alternative energy research and development programs in light of the recommendations of this report. Based on this review, the Secretary of Energy is then directed to propose appropriate funding of those research and development programs that are performance-based and are modeled as public-private partnerships. Microturbines Microturbines are small combustion turbines approximately the size of a refrigerator with outputs of 25 to 500 kilowatts. Microturbines can be used to power a home or small business. This technology has evolved largely from automotive and truck turbochargers, auxiliary power units for airplanes, and small jet engines. Compared to other technologies for small-scale power generation, microturbines offer a number of significant advantages, including a small number of moving parts; compact size; lightweight, optimal efficiency; lower emissions and electricity costs; and opportunities to use waste fuels. For these reasons, microturbines could easily capture a significant share of the distributed generation market. Renewable Energy Technologies Biomass Biomass is organic matter that can be used to provide heat, make fuel, and generate electricity. Wood, the largest source of biomass, has been used to provide heat for thousands of years. Many other types of biomass are also used as an energy source, such as plants, residue from agriculture or forestry, and the organic component of municipal and industrial wastes. Landfill gas is also considered a biomass source. Biomass resources can be replenished through cultivation of what are known as energy crops, such as fast-growing trees and grasses. Unlike other renewable energy sources, biomass can be converted directly into liquid fuels, called biofuels, to meet our transportation needs. The two most common biofuels are ethanol and biodiesel. Ethanol is made by fermenting any biomass that is rich in carbohydrates, such as corn. It is mostly used as a fuel additive to reduce a vehicle s emissions. Biodiesel is made using vegetable oils, animal fats, algae, or even recycled cooking greases. It can be used as a diesel additive to reduce emissions or in its pure form to fuel a vehicle. Beyond energy benefits, development of biomass benefits rural economies that produce crops used for biomass, particularly ethanol and biomass electricity generation. Biomass, like corn, that is rich in carbohydrates can be converted directly into biofuels to meet our transportation needs. The biofuel ethanol is mostly used as a fuel additive to reduce vehicles smog-causing emissions. In June 1992, the Greater Peoria Mass Transit District began operating fourteen ethanol-powered buses along regular city routes. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-4

95 The Geysers in northern California is the world s largest producer of renewable geothermal power. The drysteam field has successfully produced power since the early 1960s, when Pacific Gas & Electric installed the first 11-megawatt plant. Today, nearly 2,000 megawatts are on line enough energy to supply the electricity needs of San Francisco and Oakland. PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC Biomass is also used to generate electricity. This is accomplished through the direct combustion of wood, municipal solid waste, and other organic materials; co-firing with coal in high efficiency boilers; or combustion of biomass that has been chemically converted into fuel oil. In the lumber and paper industries, wood scraps are sometimes directly fed into boilers to produce steam for their manufacturing processes or to heat their buildings. For that reason, renewable energy offers a particular advantage to the lumber and paper industry, and many analysts project the industry may soon become a net seller of electricity. Co-firing coal power plants with biomass has environmental benefits, since cofiring can significantly reduce emissions. Biomass accounts for 76 percent of renewable electricity generation and 1.6 percent of total U.S. electricity supply. Even gas for generating electricity can be produced from biomass. Gasification systems use high temperatures to convert biomass into a gas that is used to fuel a turbine. The decay of biomass in landfills also produces methane, a gas that can be captured and burned in a boiler to produce steam for electricity generation or for industrial processes. Using methane emissions increases electricity supplies, reduces pollution from landfills and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. The technologies to collect and use landfill methane to generate electricity are already in the market. However, they have not been successfully integrated at present due to the perceived higher risk of new technologies. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury, to work with Congress on legislation to expand the section 29 tax credit to make it available for new landfill methane projects. The credit could be tiered, depending on whether a landfill is already required by federal law to collect and flare its methane emissions due to local air pollution concerns. Geothermal Geothermal energy is the use of steam and hot water generated by heat from the Earth to perform work. Some geothermal power plants use steam or hot water from a natural underground reservoir to power a generator. Others use hot water to provide direct heat for residential and other buildings, and for other applications. The most readily accessible resources for geothermal power generation in the United States are located in the West, Alaska, and Hawaii. A wide array of hightechnology geological, geochemical, and geophysical techniques are used to locate geothermal resources. In large measure, the technology for developing these resources has been adapted from the oil industry. Improvements in drill bits, drilling techniques, advanced instruments, and other technological advances have made energy production from geothermal resources increasingly efficient. Geothermal accounts for 17 percent of renewable electricity generation and 0.3 percent of total U.S. electricity supply. However, the net installed capacity of U.S. geothermal power plants has increased significantly, from 500 MW in 1973 to 2,800 MW today. Hot water near the surface of the Earth can also be used directly for heat. These direct-use applications include heat- 6-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

96 ing buildings, growing plants in greenhouses, drying crops, heating water at fish farms, and several industrial processes, such as pasteurizing milk. In addition, individual homeowners, farmers, and businesses can tap into geothermal energy through geothermal heat pumps to heat and cool buildings. A geothermal heat pump system consists of a heat pump, an air delivery system, a heat exchanger, and a system of pipes buried in the shallow ground near the building. In the winter, a heat pump removes heat from the heat exchanger and pumps that heat into the indoor air delivery system. In the summer, the process is reversed, and the heat pump moves heat from the indoor air into the heat exchanger. The heat removed from the indoor air during the summer can also be used to provide a free source of hot water. Geothermal heat pumps can be used almost anywhere in the United States, and can significantly increase system efficiencies. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to determine ways to reduce the delays in geothermal lease processing as part of the permitting review process. Wind Energy Wind energy has been used since at least 200 B.C. for grinding grain and pumping water. By 1900, windmills were used on farms and ranches in the United States to pump water and, eventually, to produce electricity. Windmills developed into modern-day wind turbines. Wind turbines are used for several applications. Wind power uses the naturally occurring energy of the wind for practical purposes like generating electricity, charging batteries, or pumping water. Large, modern wind turbines operate together in wind farms to produce electricity for utilities. Small turbines are used by homeowners, farmers, and remote villages to help meet localized energy needs. Wind turbines capture energy by using propeller-like blades that are mounted on a rotor. These blades are placed on top of high towers, in order to take advantage of the stronger winds at 100 feet or more above the ground. The wind causes the propellers to turn, which then turn the attached shaft to generate electricity. Wind can be used as a stand-alone source of energy or in conjunction with other renewable energy systems. Wind and natural gas hybrid systems are a promising approach that offers clean power to consumers. Wind energy accounts for 6 percent of renewable electricity generation and 0.1 percent of total electricity supply. However, advances by research labs, universities, utilities, and wind energy developers have helped cut wind energy s costs by more than 80 percent during the last twenty years. The industry is poised for growth. In some parts of the country, electricity from wind power can be produced at prices that are comparable to other conventional energy technologies. The United States has many areas with abundant wind energy potential, namely in the West, the Great Plains and New England. Solar Sunlight, or solar energy, can be used to generate electricity; heat water; and heat, cool, and light buildings. Photovoltaic (solar cell) systems use semiconductor materials similar to those used in computer chips to capture the energy in sunlight and to convert it directly into electricity. Photovoltaic cells have been used in everything from In 1996, the National Association of Home Builders constructed advanced townhouses featuring standing-seam roofs and other energy efficient materials and systems. The townhouse on the right differs from the others in that it has an integrated photovoltaic standing-seam roof that also produces electricity. TIM ELLISON, ENERGY CONVERSION DEVICES Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-6

97 the solar cells in calculators to the space station Freedom. Another technology for harnessing the sun s energy is a concentrating solar power system, which uses the sun s heat to generate electricity. The sunlight is collected and focused with mirrors to create a high intensity heat source that in turn can be used to generate electricity through a steam turbine or a heat engine. Solar hot water systems use the sun to heat water for domestic or industrial use. Many large commercial buildings also use solar collectors for heat. A solar ventilation system can be used in cold climates to preheat air as it enters a building. The heat from a solar collector can even be used to provide energy for cooling a building. Some architects are using careful design and new optical materials to use sunlight to reduce the need for traditional lighting and to cut down on heating and cooling costs. For example, materials that absorb and store the sun s heat can be built into the sunlit floors and walls. The floors and walls will store heat during the day and slowly release heat at night. While solar energy technologies have undergone technological and cost improvements and are well established in highvalue markets like remote power, satellites, communications, and navigational aids, continued research is needed to reduce costs and improve performance. Solar energy accounts for 1 percent of renewable electricity generation and 0.02 percent of total U.S. electricity supply. Alternative Energy Alternative Transportation Fuels Alternative fuels are any transportation fuels made from a nontraditional source, including ethanol, biodiesel, and other biofuels. These can be made from biomass resources, including liquid fuels (e.g., ethanol, methanol, biodiesel) and gaseous fuels (e.g., hydrogen and methane). Biofuels are primarily used to fuel vehicles, but can also fuel engines or fuel cells for electricity generation. Alternative fuels also Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to develop a new renewable energy partnership program to help companies more easily buy renewable energy, as well as receive recognition for the environmental benefits of their purchase, and help consumers by promoting consumer choice programs that increase their knowledge about the environmental benefits of purchasing renewable energy. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to extend and expand tax credits for electricity produced using renewable technology, such as wind and biomass. The President s budget request extends the present 1.7 cents per kilowatt hour tax credit for electricity produced from wind and biomass; expands eligible biomass sources to include forest-related sources, agricultural sources, and certain urban sources; and allows a credit for electricity produced from biomass co-fired with coal. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to provide a new 15 percent tax credit for residential solar energy property, up to a maximum credit of $2,000. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of the Interior and Energy to work with Congress on legislation to use an estimated $1.2 billion of bid bonuses from the environmentally responsible leasing of ANWR for funding research into alternative and renewable energy resources, including wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass. 6-7 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

98 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can run on methanol, ethanol, compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, propane, hydrogen, electricity, biodiesel, and natural gas. Today, more than 450,000 alternative vehicles are operating in the United States. Some of the barriers to using AFVs include: Cost For example, a Ford Crown Victoria that runs on compressed natural gas costs about $4,000 more than its gasoline counterpart. Refueling Infrastructure Refueling infrastructure is limited, which can make refueling inconvenient and travel options difficult. Travel Distance Ability to travel a long distance on a single volume of fuel. Al ternative fuels have an energy content lower than that of gasoline, which means that AFVs cannot travel as far as traditional vehicles on a single tank of fuel. In the short term, natural gas and propane offer the greatest potential for market growth, especially in niche markets where lower fuel costs make them attractive, such as transit buses, school buses, shuttles, and other heavy-duty vehicles. Ethanol vehicles offer tremendous potential if ethanol production can be expanded. Electric vehicles could reach large numbers in the future if technology breakthroughs help bring costs down and increase driving distance. Fuel cell vehicles operating on compressed hydrogen offer long-term potential. Compressed natural gas offers a distribution stepping-stone to a hydrogen-refueling infrastructure. include traditional energy sources, such as natural gas and liquid propane that are traditionally not used as a transportation fuel. Currently, there are approximately 450,000 alternative fuel vehicles in the United States, and more than 1.5 million flexible-fuel vehicles that can use gasoline or a mixture of ethanol and gasoline. Ethanol is made by converting the carbohydrate portion of biomass into sugar, which is then converted into ethanol through a fermentation process. Ethanol is the most widely used biofuel, and its production has increased sharply since 1980, rising from 200 million gallons a year to 1.9 billion gallons. Today, many states are considering phasing out the use of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether), an oxygenate additive for gasoline. If they do so, that will likely spur greater reliance on ethanol. Each year, approximately 65 percent of the oil consumed in the United States is used for transportation. As a result, vehicle emissions have become the leading source of U.S. air pollution. However, recent advances in fuels and vehicle design are helping increase fuel efficiency and reduce toxic substances discharged into the air. Changes in the composition of transportation fuels, such as gasoline and diesel fuels, are one way to improve vehicle performance while reducing emissions and lowering oil consumption. Reformulated gasoline contains fuel additives such as ethanol to increase oxygen content, which reduces harmful emissions such as carbon monoxide. Low-sulfur gasoline reduces sulfur oxide emissions. New diesel fuels, some of which have lower sulfur contents or are produced from clean-burning natural gas, can help vehicles with diesel engines achieve lower emissions. In addition to advanced transportation fuels, alternative fuels are being developed, such as biodiesel, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, methanol, natural gas, and propane. These alternative fuels not only reduce dependence on petroleum transportation fuels. They reduce or entirely eliminate harmful emissions as well. With the exception of natural gas and propane, these fuels also have the potential of being generated from renewable resources, such as ethanol from corn. The federal government has promoted development of alternative fuels for many years and this program has helped to reduce U.S. reliance on oil-based fuels. The evolution toward more efficient, Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-8

99 environmentally friendly transportation fuels has been mirrored by improvements in vehicle design, components, and materials. Alternative fuel vehicles, which can either switch between two fuels or run on a mixture of two fuels such as gasoline and ethanol, are now available. Recent developments in both alternative fuel vehicles and petroleum-based vehicles, such as advances in engines, drive trains, and emission-control technologies, may double or triple the efficiency of current vehicles. Some of these new technologies include hybrid electric vehicles, which combine an engine with an electric motor, and fuel cells, which produce electricity by converting a fuel, generally hydrogen and oxygen, into water. A number of issues drive the research and marketability of advanced alternative fuel vehicles and petroleum-based vehicles in the United States. The goal of reducing U.S. dependence on imported oil, combined with the link between vehicle emissions and air pollution, have prompted the development of emissions and fuel economy standards for car manufacturers. In addition, federal, state, and local governments have enacted regulations, laws, and incentives designed to reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled and to encourage businesses and individuals to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. The success of the federal alternative fuels program has been limited, however. The current program focuses on mandating certain fleet operators to purchase alternative fueled vehicles. The hope was that this vehicle purchase mandate would lead to expanded use of alternative fuels. That expectation has not been realized, since most fleet operators purchase dual-fueled vehicles that operate on petroleum motor fuels. The Clean Air Act required the use of oxygenates, such as MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) and ethanol in fuel. These oxygenates account for 92 percent of alternative fuel use. Reforms to the federal alternative fuels program could promote alternative fuels use instead of mandating purchase of vehicles that ultimately run on petroleum fuels. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Treasury to work with Congress to continue the ethanol excise tax exemption. Distributed Energy Untapped opportunities for reducing energy demand loads could be realized by better integrating electricity supply systems and customers. Improved integration can produce a variety of benefits for tight energy markets, including reducing peak demand loads, bypassing congested areas of transmission by placing new generating capacity closer to the consumer, and thus achieving greater overall system efficiencies. Current electricity load management efforts are typically limited to cutting off interruptible or nonfirm customers, appeals to the public to conserve, and brownouts. Some utilities are incorporating currentgeneration metering, sensor, and control technologies to take the next step: selective reduction of individual energy-using appliances. In some areas, residents can reduce their monthly bills by allowing the utility to electronically turn off selected appliances, such as water heaters, on a rotating basis. If this option is well managed, consumers are unaware of the temporary loss service, and critical systems continue to run unimpeded. Advanced integrated supply-and-demand load management controls also allow for widespread demand auctions, in which consumers can decide which energy services to forego on which days. Distributed energy resources describe a variety of smaller electricity-generating options well suited for placement in homes, offices, and factories, or near these facilities. Distributed energy systems have the distinct advantage of being brought on line faster than new central power plants. While natural gas microturbines and solar roof panels are the most familiar types of distributed energy, other distributed energy resources include: combined heat and power, stationary fuel cells, generation of 6-9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

100 bioenergy from landfill methane recovery, and small wind systems. Photovoltaic solar distributed energy is a particularly valuable energy generation source during times of peak use of power. Efficiency gains from distributed energy come from three sources. First, transmission and distribution line losses (about 5 percent) are reduced because the energy is generally used near the source. Second, the co-location with consumption makes it more feasible to use waste heat, displacing otherwise needed natural gas or electricity for heating purposes. And, third, the co-location with consumption allows for the integration of on-site energy efficiency and generating capabilities. For example, in the residential market, distributed energy applications can make possible the concept of the net zero energy home, in which the overall level of energy produced at the home equals or exceeds the amount of energy used in the home. Despite these advantages, a number of impediments and competing policy objectives discourage the wider application of integrated electricity supply and demand solutions, many of which reflect the relative newness and lack of familiarity with these technologies. For example, the lack of standards governing interconnection of distributed energy to the grid impedes development. The lack of standards prevents a uniformly effective means of getting excess distributed energy to the grid. In addition, current air quality regulations do not take into account the additional energy savings from many distributed energy technologies. Likewise, distributed energy systems purchased by consumers may receive different tax rates than those purchased by traditional electricity producers. Although distributed energy can alleviate distribution constraints, these systems often cannot be sited and permitted in a timely manner. For instance, land-use zoning codes may not allow generating equipment in association with residential or commercial land uses, and building code officials may not know enough about solar roof systems to provide timely building permits. As with energy efficiency equipment, load management integrating systems, both controls and distributed energy, have higher first costs associated with lower future energy bills. Another barrier to development of distributed energy is the need for net metering, which enables consumers to install a small electricity project at their homes and sell the excess to the local utility, offsetting their purchases from the utility at other times. Net metering can lower the cost to consumers of distributed energy projects. Some consumers are reluctant to install distributed renewable energy resources because many regions do not have the regulatory framework under which consumers can sell energy back to the grid under a net metering system. Future Energy Sources As we look to the long-term future of alternative energy technologies, there is significant promise in these technologies to meet an ever-growing portion of our nation s energy needs. Hydrogen In the long run, alternative energy technologies such as hydrogen show great promise. Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe and can be made from water. Converting hydrogen into energy is compatible with existing energy technologies, such as fuel cells, engines, and combustion turbines. The energy for extracting hydrogen could come from existing, traditional fuels, or it could be derived from renewable energy sources, such as solar, nuclear, and fossil, to achieve the cleanest possible energy cycle. Hydrogen can be converted into useful energy forms efficiently and without detrimental environmental effects. Unlike other energy sources, its production by-product is water. In the future, hydrogen may be able to be used in furnaces and as a transportation fuel for automobiles, buses, trains, ships and airplanes. Hydrogen could also be converted directly into electricity by fuel cells. Combustion of hydrogen with oxygen results in pure steam, which has many appli- Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-10

101 There is a significant promise in renewable technologies to meet an evergrowing portion of our nation s energy needs. Wind power has significant growth potential. The principal challenges to achieving this level of renewable energy generation are cost and market acceptance of renewable power technologies. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY cations in industrial processes and space heating. Moreover, hydrogen is an important industrial gas and raw material in numerous industries, such as computer, metallurgical, chemical, pharmaceutical, fertilizer and food industries. An energy infrastructure that relies on hydrogen could enable much greater use of distributed energy systems. These systems are small, modular electricity generators that can be placed right where they are needed for heating, cooling, and powering offices, factories, and residences. Hydrogen fuel cells are a promising type of distributed energy system that can provide the exacting reliability needed for the high-tech industry. Fuel cells can produce electricity and heat from hydrogen, natural gas, and petroleum fuels, and fuel gases derived from coal and biomass. What makes fuel cells unique is that they can use fuels without combustion, simply by chemical reactions, making them extremely clean and efficient. Fuel cells were developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to generate electricity, heat, and water in space vehicles. The first-generation fuel cells for stationary power applications entered the commercial market in This type of fuel cell is used to generate very high-quality electricity and heat with negligible emissions in commercial and industrial settings. It is most likely to be used in cases where users are willing to pay a premium for cleaner, more reliable power than is available from the commercial grid. The second generation of stationary fuel cells is currently in the demonstration phase, including a combined fuel cell turbine hybrid. These fuel cells are expected to be more efficient and cost less when used in similar distributed energy systems. Smaller fuel cells for residential units are also being developed, and some are in the demonstration phase. Despite technical progress, high costs remain the main deterrent to widespread fuel cell use. Significant cost reductions must be achieved before fuel cells will be competitive with internal combustion engines, and the size and weight of fuel cell systems must be reduced even more to accommodate vehicle packaging requirements. The primary challenge to using more hydrogen in our energy systems is the cost of producing, storing, and transporting it. A serious challenge confronting a move toward distributed energy is the transition away from centralized energy systems of supply and production. These challenges are not expected to be resolved overnight, but progress made in the last few years has already far surpassed the expectations of just a decade ago. A significant amount of promising research and development has already been completed. The automobile industry is aggressively exploring the fuel cell as the future of the industry. Moreover, a new firstgeneration class of distributed energy technologies are already hitting the market. Fusion Fusion the energy source of the sun has the long-range potential to serve as an abundant and clean source of energy. The basic fuels, deuterium (a heavy form of hydrogen) and lithium, are abundantly available to all nations for thousands of years. There are no emissions from fusion, and the radioactive wastes from fusion are shortlived, only requiring burial and oversight for about 100 years. In addition, there is no risk of a melt-down accident because only a small amount of fuel is present in the system at any time. Finally, there is little risk of nuclear proliferation because special nuclear materials, such as uranium and plutonium, are not required for fusion energy. Fusion systems could power an energy supply chain based on hydrogen and fuel cells, as well as provide electricity directly. Although still in its early stages of development, fusion research has made some advances. In the early 1970s, fusion research achieved the milestone of producing 1/10 of one watt of fusion power, for 1/100 of a second. Today the energy produced from fusion is 10 billion times greater, and has been demonstrated in the laboratory at powers over 10 million watts in the range of a second NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

102 Internationally, an effort is underway in Europe, Japan, and Russia to develop plans for constructing a large-scale fusion science and engineering test facility. This test facility may someday be capable of steady operation with fusion power in the range of hundreds of megawatts. Both hydrogen and fusion must make significant progress before they can become viable sources of energy. However, the technological advances experienced over the last decade and the advances yet to come will hopefully transform the energy sources of the distant future. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to develop next-generation technology including hydrogen and fusion. Develop an education campaign that communicates the benefits of alternative forms of energy, including hydrogen and fusion. Focus research and development efforts on integrating current programs regarding hydrogen, fuel cells, and distributed energy. Current Markets for Renewable and Alternative Energy Advances in Technology Non-hydropower renewable energy accounts for about 4 percent of current U.S. energy production, divided evenly between electricity generation and transportation fuels such as ethanol. Between 1990 and 1999, renewable energy generation grew by 29 percent, and renewable energy is projected to continue to grow (Figure 6-1). Renewable fuel consumption, including ethanol for gasoline blending, is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent a year through In 2020, 55 percent of renewables are projected to be used for electricity generation and the rest for dispersed heating, industrial uses, and fuel blending. The success of renewables is, in part, the result of over twenty years of research, development, and demonstration conducted by the public and private sectors. This work has dramatically improved these technologies and has reduced their costs by as much as 90 percent. For example: The Department of Energy (DOE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Alstom Energy Systems jointly created Advanced Direct-Contact Condensers, which improve the efficiency and generating capacity of electric power plants by providing the best surface area for condensing spent steam. This technological advance, tested in geothermal applications in California, can improve the efficiency of electricity production by 5 percent and capacity by 17 percent. United Solar Systems in Michigan pioneered the first commercial use of solar photovoltics as a building material. The triple-junction, thin-film technology is now sold as flexible solar panels, solar shingles for building roofs, and a peel-and-stick-on variety for standing seam metal roofs. United Solar is now building a larger manufacturing plant in Michigan that is five times the size of its existing manufacturing facility. DOE collaborates with United Solar on research and development helping overcome hurdles in manufacturing. As a result, United Solar is able to provide unique solarelectric products using a unique roll-to-roll manufacturing process. In partnership with DOE, NREL, Battelle Lab, Burlington Electric and others, Future Energy Resources Corporation of Norcross, Georgia, was able to build, test, and operate the world s first biomass gasification system. The McNeil Plant, located in Burlington, Vermont, gasifies rather than combusts wood chips to power a gas boiler. The technology has shown itself to be commercially viable, and is being considered worldwide by industries as a way of upgrading existing inefficient and aging boilers. Improved renewable and alternative energy technologies are becoming increasingly attractive to a number of energy companies seeking to build new business opportunities for the future (Figure 6-3). Following are a few examples: Figure 6-1 Increases in U.S. Energy Production: (Quadrillion Btus) Renewables 1.18 Nuclear 1.57 Coal 0.90 Natural Gas 1.12 During the last decade, renewable energy sources contributed substantially to the growth in U.S. energy production, outpacing all fuel sources except for nuclear energy. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-12

103 Table 6-2 Electricity Generated by Renewable Energy Sources: 1999 Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydropower Current net summer capacity (MW) 350 2,600 2,870 6,170 79,130 Annual generation (millions of kwh) 940 4,460 13,070 36, ,000 Expected growth PV: 19.3 in generation (%) Thermal: Cost (cents/kwh) Renewable energy has become a significant source of electric power in the United States. Note: Capacity, generation, and growth data do not include off-grid electricity, thermal, or other nonelectricity energy production, municipal solid waste, or methane from landfills. Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration and Office of Power Technologies. FPL Group announced in January 2001 the construction of two major wind farms: a 300 MW facility on the Washington Oregon border, and a 25.5 MW facility in Wisconsin. The company now has more than 1,000 MW of wind generating capacity in operation or under construction in seven states. CalEnergy Company has made renewable and alternative energy generation a central focus of its power portfolio. The company operates 1,300 MW of geothermal, natural gas, hydropower, and other power facilities in the U.S. and abroad, with another 750 MW currently under construction. General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Texaco, BP/Amoco, and Shell are collectively spending between $500 million and $1 billion dollars a year on fuel cells, hydrogen storage, and infrastructure development for passenger vehicles. Ongoing bus demonstrations in the United States and Europe are expected to commercialize fuel cell power hydrogen buses in the next five years. Because alternative and renewable energy resources can be used in so many different ways throughout the economy to produce so many combinations of energy types, their total use is often difficult to measure precisely. As of 1996, California alone had over 10 MW of installed distributed energy, a large increase in generating capacity during a period of otherwise limited growth in generation (Figure 6-3). In 1999, several types of renewable energy were used to produce electricity (Table 6-2). On the transportation side, there are approximately 450,000 alternative fuel vehicles in the United States. Additionally, there are more than 1.5 million flexible-fuel vehicles that can use gasoline or a high mixture of ethanol and gasoline. These include the Ford Taurus, the DaimlerChrysler Caravan, and the General Motors S10 pickup. Ethanol is the most widely used biofuel, and its production is currently 1.9 billion gallons a year, representing a nearly ten-fold growth from about 200 million gallons a year in Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress to develop legislation to provide for a temporary income tax credit available for the purchase of new hybrid or fuel-cell vehicles. Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) combine the internal combustion engine of a conventional engine with the battery and electric motor of an electric vehicle, resulting in twice the fuel economy of conventional vehicles. This combination offers the extended range and rapid refueling that consumers expect from a conventional vehicle, with a significant portion of the energy and environmental benefits of an electric vehicle. The practical benefits of HEVs include improved fuel economy and lower emissions compared to conventional vehicles. The car s flexibility will mean convenient use for individuals as well as businesses. Removing Barriers to Renewable and Alternative Energy Growth Perhaps the greatest barrier to growth of renewable energy is cost. Currently, the cost of renewable energy generation fre NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

104 quently exceeds the costs of conventional electricity generation. In recent years, though, the costs of renewable energy have declined substantially. For example, the cost of wind energy has declined by more than 80 percent over the past twenty years and is increasingly competitive with conventional electricity generation sources. Wind, biomass, and geothermal are all increasingly competitive with conventional electricity generation. The ability of these technologies to meet specific market needs is another factor in how quickly their market share will grow. These technologies and energy sources provide multiple benefits to the energy producer and the consumer. For example, many of these technologies are modular and can be constructed rapidly, adding an immediate source of new power in areas that otherwise might face a shortfall. Distributed renewable energy resources can enhance the reliability and quality of power. Cogeneration uses of waste products and heat can increase profits by reducing purchased electricity costs, as well as costs for process steam and heating or cooling. Several sectors, including lumber and paper, steel, and chemical manufacturing, are exploring the increased use of cogeneration. With the technological development of biomass gasification, the lumber and paper industry could become a seller of electricity. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to issue guidance to encourage the development of welldesigned combined heat and power (CHP) units that are both highly efficient and have low emissions. The goal of this guidance would be to shorten the time needed to obtain each permit, provide certainty to industry by ensuring consistent implementation across the country, and encourage the use of these cleaner, more efficient technologies. Renewable technologies can help provide insurance against price volatility. In addition, many renewable technologies can help industry achieve compliance with the Clean Air Act and other environmental regulations. In some cases, renewables can be more readily located in urban areas whose air quality does not meet regulatory requirements. With the growth rate for non-hydropower renewable electricity generation more than doubling the expected growth in overall electricity capacity, these energy sources will play a more significant role in electricity markets in the next two decades. However, the extent to which these domestic resources are successfully tapped will depend in large part on continued technological development. For renewable and alternative energy to play a greater role in meeting our energy demands, these sources of generation must be able to integrate into our existing distribution system. The tools that form the necessary interface between distributed energy systems and the grid need to be less expensive, faster, more reliable, and more compact. Promising technologies exist that will improve the transmission, storage, and reliability of renewable energy. An example of recent technological success that will allow for increased access to all forms of energy, including renewable energy, is the high-temperature superconducting underground power transmission cables that the Department of Energy is developing in partnership with industry. These cables will allow a 300 percent increase in capacity without excavation to lay new transmission lines. This summer, Detroit Edison is demonstrating this commercially viable high-temperature superconducting cable system in an application that serves 14,000 customers. Renewable and alternative energy technologies, such as wind energy and combined heat and power could be significantly expanded, given today s technologies. They could be further expanded with added investment in technology. For example, wind energy could be developed that could be adapted to sites with lower wind speeds than is feasible today. Combined heat and Figure 6-3 Growth in California s Renewable Energy Capacity (Thousands of Megawatts) ,497 4,097 4, Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-14

105 While solar energy technologies have undergone technological and cost improvements, and are well established in high value markets like remote power, satellites, communications, and navigational aids continued research is needed to reduce costs and improve performance. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Figure 6-4 Investors Are Betting on Distributed Energy (Millions of Dollars) Less Than $20 Million Annually In the last few years, surging venture capital investments showed strong support for distributed energy technologies. Note: Data for 2000 are projected investments. Source: Nth Power via the Economist, August 5, power in buildings offers great potential for increased system efficiencies and lower costs. New developments in microturbine and fuel cell technologies are also highly promising. Performance improvements of other technologies, such as photovoltaic systems, would facilitate much wider use. In addition to technological performance, attention to several key market and regulatory constraints would accelerate the development and use of renewable and alternative energy in the marketplace. Because many renewable and alternative energy technologies do not fit into traditional regulatory categories, they are often subjected to competing regulatory requirements or to requirements that were never designed to address them. For example, much of the current Clean Air Act does not specifically address the use of new, more efficient renewable energy technologies. Consequently, the Act does not provide significant incentives for the development of such technologies. The lack of interconnection standards or guidelines for electricity supply and loads impedes the use of distributed energy technologies. As a result, developers of small renewable energy projects must negotiate interconnection agreements on a site-by-site basis with local distribution companies that are often opposed to distributed energy projects because of the increased competition. Although a few states have established interconnection standards, there is no national standard to facilitate development of distributed energy (Figure 6-4). New combined heat and power facilities may face air permitting hurdles when they replace marginally dirty boilers. The Clean Air Act does not recognize the pollution prevention benefits of the increased efficiency of combined heat and power units. At the same time, these combined heat and power investments are taxed at the industry s tax rate, not at the rate they would receive if they were considered part of the utility sector for tax purposes. modifi NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

106 In addition, modifications to permitting and siting requirements may be necessary to facilitate the incorporation of these technologies into buildings. The infrastructure needed for increasing the use of renewable and alternative energy varies considerably. In particular, the alternative fuels infrastructure lags far behind the existing infrastructure for conventional fuels. The lack of infrastructure for alternative fuels is a major obstacle to consumer acceptance of alternative fuels and the purchase of alternative fuel vehicles. It is also one of the main reasons why most alternative fuel vehicles actually operate on petroleum fuels, such as gasoline and diesel. In addition, a considerable enlargement of ethanol production and distribution capacity would be required to expand beyond their current base in the Midwest in order to increase use of ethanol-blended fuels. The use of natural gas or electricity for vehicles requires enhancements to these distribution systems, such as compression stations for natural gas. While many alternative fuels can be shipped by pipeline, they may require separation within the pipeline to avoid mixing different energy products. Geographically dispersed renewable energy plants often face significant transmission barriers, including unfavorable grid schedule policies and increased embedded costs. Uncertainty regarding the tax treatment of these technologies and energy sources can discourage long-term investment. Though existing tax credits provide an incentive for investing in some types of renewable energy, the limited scope of the credit and its frequent expiration discourages investment. Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-16

107 Summary of Recommendations Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of the Interior and Energy to re-evaluate access limitations to federal lands in order to increase renewable energy production, such as biomass, wind, geothermal, and solar. The NEPD Group supports the increase of $39.2 million in the FY 2002 budget amendment for the Department of Energy s Energy Supply account that would provide increased support for research and development of renewable energy resources. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to conduct a review of current funding and historic performance of renewable energy and alternative energy research and development programs in light of the recommendations of this report. Based on this review, the Secretary of Energy is then directed to propose appropriate funding of those research and development programs that are performance-based and are modeled as public-private partnerships. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to expand the section 29 tax credit to make it available for new landfill methane projects. The credit could be tiered, depending on whether a landfill is already required by federal law to collect and flare its methane emissions due to local air pollution concerns. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Interior to determine ways to reduce the delays in geothermal lease processing as part of the permitting review process. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to develop a new renewable energy partnership program to help companies more easily buy renewable energy, as well as receive recognition for the environmental benefits of their purchase, and help consumers by promoting consumer choice programs that increase their knowledge about the environmental benefits of purchasing renewable energy. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to extend and expand tax credits for electricity produced using wind and biomass. The President s budget request extends the present 1.7 cents per kilowatt hour tax credit for electricity produced from wind and biomass; expands eligible biomass sources to include forest-related sources, agricultural sources, and certain urban sources; and allows a credit for electricity produced from biomass co-fired with coal. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress on legislation to provide a new 15 percent tax credit for residential solar energy property, up to a maximum credit of $2,000. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretaries of the Interior and Energy to work with Congress on legislation to use an estimated $1.2 billion of bid bonuses from the environmentally responsible leasing of ANWR for funding research into alternative and renewable energy resources, including wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

108 The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress to continue the ethanol excise tax exemption. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to develop next-generation technology including hydrogen and fusion. Develop an education campaign that communicates the benefits of alternative forms of energy, including hydrogen and fusion. Focus research and development efforts on integrating current programs regarding hydrogen, fuel cells, and distributed energy. Support legislation reauthorizing the Hydrogen Energy Act. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of the Treasury to work with Congress to develop legislation to provide for a temporary income tax credit available for the purchase of new hybrid or fuel-cell vehicles between 2002 and The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to issue guidance to encourage the development of well-designed combined heat and power (CHP) units that are both highly efficient and have low emissions. The goal of this guidance would be to shorten the time needed to obtain each permit, provide certainty to industry by ensuring consistent implementation across the country, and encourage the use of these cleaner, more efficient technologies. Chapter 6 Nature s Power: Increasing America s Use of Renewable and Alternative Energy 6-18

109 C H A P T E R S E V E N America s Energy Infrastructure A Comprehensive Delivery System 7-1 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY One of the greatest energy challenges facing America is the need to use 21st- century technology to improve America s aging energy infrastructure. Americans need a comprehensive, long-term solution to deliver energy to industry and consumers in a reliable and safe manner. Our energy infrastructure is comprised of many components, such as the physical network of pipes for oil and natural gas, electricity transmission lines and other means for transporting energy to consumers. This infrastructure also includes facilities that turn raw natural resources into useful energy products. The rail network, truck lines, and marine transportation are also key components of America s energy infrastructure. The energy industry has undergone major changes in the last two decades, and more are expected. These changes affect how our energy infrastructure operates. For example, while the electricity industry was once vertically integrated, it is increasingly separated into three isolated segments: generation, transmission, and distribution. Our energy infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the changing requirements of our energy system. Domestic refining capacity has not matched increases in demand, requiring the United States to import refined products. Natural gas pipelines have not expanded sufficiently to meet demand. The electricity transmission system is constrained by insufficient capacity. Rail capacity was significantly increased during the 1970s when rail facilities were improved to move more coal. Since then, however, few additions to the coal transportation rail network have been built. The United States needs to modernize its energy infrastructure. One sign of a lack of an energy policy in recent years has been the failure to maintain the infrastructure needed to move energy where it is needed most. Electricity The electricity infrastructure includes a nationwide power grid of long-distance transmission lines that move electricity from region to region, as well as the local distribution lines that carry electricity to homes and businesses. Electricity originates at power plants, which are primarily fueled by coal, nuclear, natural gas, water and, to a lesser extent, oil. Coal, natural gas and oil powered plants require a dependable transportation infrastructure to deliver the fuels necessary for the production of electricity. A transportation network for waste disposal is also necessary for power plants that create byproducts. Restructuring The electricity industry has undergone considerable changes in the last two decades. These changes affect how our electricity infrastructure operates. Major industry restructuring has separated once vertically integrated electric utilities that supplied generation, transmission, and distribution services into distinct entities. To facilitate competition at the wholesale level, in 1996, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) required transmission-owning utilities to unbundle their transmission and power marketing functions, and provide nondiscriminatory, open access to their transmission systems by other utilities U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

111 FIGURE 7-1 North American Transmission Lines About 204,000 miles of long-distance transmission lines move power from region to region. The four integrated transmission grids serving North America are the Western Interconnection, Eastern Interconnection, Electric Reliability Council of Texas, and Province of Quebec. Source: PA Consulting Group 7-3 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

113 and independent power producers. At the retail level, some states have required utilities to divest their generation assets as part of restructuring. These utilities currently supply only transmission and distribution services for customers who purchase electricity (i.e., generation services) from other firms. In addition, power marketers who often do not own generation, transmission, or distribution facilities buy and sell power on wholesale markets and market electricity directly to customers. Electricity competition has led to significant changes in the operation of the bulk power grid, which are the power plants and high-voltage transmission facilities that make up the wholesale power market. More electricity is being shipped longer distances over a transmission system that was initially designed only to provide limited power and reserve sharing among neighboring utilities. Electric utilities that were once solely responsible for ensuring that adequate generation was available to meet demand now purchase a substantial amount of the power they need from the wholesale market, relying on independent power producers to build and operate plants. Electricity Generation There are roughly 5,000 power plants in the United States, and they have a total generating capacity of nearly 800,000 megawatts. Over the past few years, there has been an explosion of merchant power plants proposed by independent power producers seeking to sell into wholesale markets. In spite of this interest, a number of regions of the country are experiencing capacity shortages as a result of wholesale market design problems and barriers to siting and building new power plants. Over the next ten years, demand for electric power is expected to increase by about 25 percent, and more than 200,000 megawatts of new capacity will be required. However, under current plans electric transmission capacity will increase by only 4 percent. This shortage could lead to serious transmission congestion and reliability problems. Transmission Grid The United States does not have a national transmission grid. Instead, there are four integrated transmission grids serving North America: the Western Interconnection, Eastern Interconnection, Electric Reliability of Council of Texas, and the Province of Quebec (Figure 7-1). These regional grids themselves are international, encompassing the United States, Canada, and part of Mexico. Transactions between the four integrated transmission grids are very limited because they are interconnected at only a few locations through interties, so for all practical purposes they can be viewed as separate transmission grids. The four integrated transmission grids break down into a series of smaller regions, largely defined by transmission constraints. Altogether, 204,000 miles of transmission lines in North America move power from the point of generation to where electricity is needed. There are 157,810 miles of transmission lines in the United States. Transmission grid expansions are expected to be slow over the next ten years, with additions totaling only 7,000 miles. The transmission system is the highway system for interstate commerce in electricity. Transmission allows the sale of electricity between regions. In a particular region, transmission can be a substitute for generation, allowing that region to import power that otherwise would have to be generated within that region. In some cases, transmission expansion may be more costeffective than generation additions, allowing a region better access to lower-cost generation. Transmission constraints limit these power flows, and result in consumers paying higher prices for electricity. The electricity price spikes in the Midwest in the summer of 1998 were caused in part by transmission constraints limiting the ability of the region to import electricity from other regions of the country that had available electricity. During the summer of 2000, transmission constraints limited the ability to sell low-cost power from the Midwest to the South during a period of peak demand, 7-5 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY

114 resulting in higher prices for consumers. Transmission capacity limits could result in price pressures and reliability problems this summer in California, Long Island, the Great Lakes, the Southeast, and New England (Figure 7-2). Regional shortages of generating capacity and transmission constraints combine to reduce the overall reliability of electric supply in the country and are reducing the quality of power delivered to end users. Power quality is becoming an increasingly important issue as our digital economy continues to grow. One factor limiting reliability is the lack of enforceable reliability standards. Since 1968, the reliability of the U.S. transmission grid has depended entirely on voluntary compliance with reliability standards. There is a broad recognition that voluntary adherence with reliability standards is no longer a viable approach in an increasingly competitive electricity market. There is a need to provide for enforcement of mandatory reliability standards. Broad support has emerged for development of these standards by a self-regulating organization overseen by FERC. Recommendations: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to work with FERC to improve the reliability of the interstate transmission system and to develop legislation providing for enforcement by a self-regulatory organization subject to FERC oversight. The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to expand the Department s research and development on transmission reliability and superconductivity. Transmission constraints were also a primary factor in blackouts in northern California, which imports power from both the Northwest and southern California. When resources are not available in the Northwest, electricity supply must come Figure 7-2 Current Electric Power Bottlenecks Transmission capacity limits could result in price pressures and reliability problems this summer in California, Long Island, the Great Lakes, the Southeast, and New England. The arrows in this figure depict the locations and directions of current transmission congestion. Source: North American Electric Reliability Council. from southern California s Path 15 transmission route. Path 15 does not have sufficient capacity to provide all of the power needed in northern California. Recommendation: The NEPD Group recommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to authorize the Western Area Power Administration to explore relieving the Path 15 bottleneck through transmission expansion financed by nonfederal contributions. Transmission constraints have been a persistent cause of price spikes in New York City in recent years. The New York Independent System Operator (the grid operator in that state) estimates that the city will be short about 400 MW below their desired reserve margin of power during the summer peak. To fill this gap, the New York Power Authority is trying to install additional generation capacity in the city. Market-oriented approaches could also be used to create additional capacity and alleviate some of the potential problems. If transmission constraints are not removed, the result can be higher prices and Chapter 7 America s Energy Infrastructure: A Comprehensive Delivery System 7-6

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