Weekly Monitoring: On June 25th, several regions of Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 26th, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Matara district up to 20 mm; and Colombo, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalla districts up to 10 mm. On the 27th, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Ratnapura district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 28th, Galle and Matra districts received up to 40 mm; Hambantota district up to 30 mm; and Ratnapura and Kalutara districts up to 20 mm. On the 29th, Ampara district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Batticaloa district up to 40 mm. On the 30th, Ampara and Badulla districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On July 1st, Anuradhapura district received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya, Mannar, Matale, Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and Kalutara and Galle districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 75-100 mm of total rainfall in Ampara district; up to 50-75 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Batticaloa districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ampara district; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala and Kegalla districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During June - above average rainfall conditions were experienced by the western and south-western regions of the island. Ratnapura district received up to 210 mm above average rainfall; Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Kalutara districts up to 150 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Galle and Matara districts up to 60 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 500 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 300 mm Kegalla, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to ~200 mm Gampaha, Galle and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts.

Predictions14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP Models:

From 3rd – 9th Jul: Total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; between 35-45 mm in Kurunegala district; and 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

From 10th – 16th Jul: Total rainfall between 65-75 mm in Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; and between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast:

5th Jul: Up to 20 mm of rainfall expected in Anuradhapura district.

6th Jul: Up to 80 mm of rainfall expected in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Mullaitivu, Matale, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 3rd – 8th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm expected for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)PACIFIC SEAS STATE : June 19, 2018

In mid-June 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, as did all key atmospheric variables. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average, and this strengthened further during May. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 50% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 65% during winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development during late summer, growing to possibly moderate strength during fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario as the spring barrier is now mostly passed.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE : MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.