Friday, April 15, 2016

Moscow Seen Losing Influence in Central Asia as Older Generation Passes from the Scene

Paul
Goble

Staunton, April 14 – Russia is
losing influence in Central Asia not only because of the actions of the governments
there and of other outside actors but also because of the passing of the generation
that grew up and remembers Soviet times and because of Moscow’s failure to
support “soft power” mechanisms, according to Arkady Dubnov.

In a report on the region to the
Russian Academy of Economics and State Service, the Central Asian specialist
says that “over the last quarter of a century, a large segment of the countries
of Central Asia have returned to those orders which dominated there prior to
the coming of Soviet power” (lenta.ru/articles/2016/04/12/emirates/).

“The region,” he
continues, “has gradually moved toward archaiv forms and to a semi-feudal
system of relations.” That is the case in the first instance in Turkmenistan
and Tajikistan, but both there and elsewhere, “the decisive role” in
determining the direction of the state “has been played by the personality of the
chief of state.”

Many in Russia and the West
mistakenly treat the countries of Central Asia as “something integral and
common and lacking particular distinctions.”But Dubnov argues, the the countries there have not succeeded in
becoming “a single region.” Instead, they have moved and will likely continue
to move in different directions.

The Moscow scholar cites the
conclusions of Muratbek Imanaliyev, the former foreign minister of Kyrgyzstan,
and political scientist Valentin Bogatyrev, that none of the three integration
projects that might have made the region a single whole – the Eurasian Economic
Union, the Chinese Silk Road, and Islamic fundamentalism -- have had much
success.

For his part, Dubnov suggests that
the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty has also failed to promote
unity because many of the Central Asian leaders view it as little more than a
means to protect their personal rule against foreign and domestic challenges.
Moreover, Moscow’s actions in Ukraine have increased Central Asian skepticism
about Russian intentions.

The Russian authorities have
compounded their problems in the region by failing to do everything they can to
shore up influence even with the country most loyal to Moscow – Kyrgyzstan.Moscow provides funding for Bishkek but it
has not taken the practical and symbolic steps necessary to transform
Kyrgyzstan into a real ally, Dubnov says.

Russia stands to lose even more
influence later this year when Kyrgyzstan plans to commemorate the centenary of
the 1916 Central Asian rising against Russian colonialism.The best way for Moscow to counter the
nationalist implications of that is for the country’s leadership to attend
these commemorations, the Russian scholar says.

Dubnov continues that Moscow has
failed to exploit all the possibilities for using “soft power” in Central Asia.
In fact, he characterizes Russia’s role in that regard as “soft impotence,”
pointing out that Russia has stopped funding the Slavic university in Dushanbe
and failed to ensure the supply of Russian literature in Kyrgyzstan.

At the present time, Dubnov
concludes, there are enough people in Central Asia who grew up in Soviet times
and still remember it in positive terms.But he ends by implying that the situation in this regard will be very
different “several years from now” when “the older generation finally passes
from the scene.”