Hot Air Candidate Survey Results: August

posted at 9:25 am on August 2, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

Sarah Palin hits a new high. Hot Air wants Marco Rubio for Vice President. Rick Perry is the top second-choice for President. And among those actually running for the job? Michele Bachmann takes the top prize. Questions? You can find me here.

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I’m not ready to go all Hillary on this, but I participated in a straw poll this past weekend and Palin was not on the ballot. I was told they would not accept write-ins, so I wrote her in anyway knowing my vote wouldn’t count.

That’s a lot of effort wasted on two people not even running for the job.

Sarah Palin hits a new high. Hot Air wants Marco Rubio for Vice President. Rick Perry is the top second-choice for President. And among those actually running for the job? Michele Bachmann takes the top prize.

Online polls may provide some measure of the intensity of support (which is why Lon Raul does so well), but they are not scientific polls.

Y-not on August 2, 2011 at 11:01 AM

So what? Anthropogenic Global Warming is “scientific” too, and we all know that’s a bunch of hogwash. Anybody who will decide on a candidate based on polls in whole or in part deserves another four years of Obama.

Interesting numbers this month. “Unexpectedly”, Gov. Palin holds a substantial and growing margin. Now for some analysis to make a few heads explode…

The remaining support for Bachmann, and the growing support for Perry, are primarily found from among those who have already staked out their ground as ABP diehards. The reason for Perry’s surge is twofold: a) Bachmann has, unfortunately, gotten shaky in how she addresses a few issues, costing her some ABP backing b) Perry has been making the most Tea Party-ish statements of late (other than Palin, or Rubio)

This analysis is further supported by Rubio’s position as VP favorite, because he is the most vocal, concise, clearcut voice in Congress on the issues favored by strong Conservatives.

As for the “who did you formerly support” question, it is unfortunate that it is subject to fraudulent application. The suggestion that many who have changed their vote from one ABP choice to another, but who always mark Palin as the choice they have left, is hard to deny given the broader numbers.

Bottom line. Perry is the “next best thing” this month for the ABP crowd, since Bachmann has managed to (unwisely) distance herself from Gov. Palin in a number of ways. As soon as more of Perry’s real position on issues emerges, he will settle back into the pack with the rest who are “ABP”.

And yet, being an anonymous survey, there are enough folks who are honest in spite of their comments to the contrary, and stick with who they know is the strongest voice matching their own values, beliefs, and constitutional principles. So unless someone else emerges who can articulate those things better, Gov. Palin will remain where she is in these polls.

And yet, being an anonymous survey, there are enough folks who are honest in spite of their comments to the contrary, and stick with who they know is the strongest voice matching their own values, beliefs, and constitutional principles. So unless someone else emerges who can articulate those things better, Gov. Palin will remain where she is in these polls.

Otherwise, Palin still seems pretty popular here. Perry is surging, and Bachmann is still the preferred conservative in the running.

MeatHeadinCA on August 2, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Same people vote, you’re going to get roughly the same results. I don’t think that necessarily speaks to the accuracy of these polls as compared to nationwide numbers, but it does tell me there are some diehards here — whatever that means.

Same people vote, you’re going to get roughly the same results. I don’t think that necessarily speaks to the accuracy of these polls as compared to nationwide numbers, but it does tell me there are some diehards here — whatever that means.

gryphon202 on August 2, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Well, I’ve been trying to do a little soul-searching, if you will. I think Bachmann is a good conservative and Perry could be a compromise candidate; however, I still end up believing Palin is the most electable, most conservative (potential) candidate. I figured other people might be doing the same thinking. It’s interesting to see the results.

why can’t the candidates said to be certain to run beat the candidate who is said not to be running…but she is running away with it anyway?

Is it political eros?

Being popular is a plus. Who knew?

jimw on August 2, 2011 at 11:17 AM

Well that rates a big fat DUH. So the question remains, why is said candidate so popular and why do the others have such a hard time catching up to her in these polls? If you can figure that out, you may have a career in political advising ahead of you.

I think it’s getting less and less interesting every time the results come back (basically) the same, with maybe a couple of names flipped here and there. Things won’t start getting interesting for me until the primaries start.

I think it’s getting less and less interesting every time the results come back (basically) the same, with maybe a couple of names flipped here and there. Things won’t start getting interesting for me until the primaries start.

Well that rates a big fat DUH. So the question remains, why is said candidate so popular and why do the others have such a hard time catching up to her in these polls? If you can figure that out, you may have a career in political advising ahead of you.

gryphon202 on August 2, 2011 at 11:19 AM

Not interested in the job, but here goes. An individual has a conscience, beliefs, a set of principles and values, and a lifestyle. They also have self-image, self-perceived other-image, and peer pressure.

If they are politically engaged, even in the intellectual sense, they will gravitate toward whoever matches up with the majority of the above. If those image-related parts of their being are more dominant, they may suppress all or part of the others to match an internally determined expectation. If they have become strongly interested in a particular single issue, they will also suppress any of the above which don’t coincide with their stance on that issue.

But alone in the dark, the conscience and principles tend to become more dominant in spite of all pressures in opposition. Gov. Palin’s presence, presentation, unambiguous declarations, personal and family life most closely resonate with the conscience and principles at the core of most conservatives. That fact will not go away, and every attempt to subvert it (24,000 emails anyone?) will not put a dent in it.

To yank out the anecdotals, so far I think it sounds like Bachmann is the #1 choice of Palin supporters among declared candidates. Speaking only for myself, that could change if circumstances warrant.

gryphon202 on August 2, 2011 at 11:52 AM

I didn’t appreciate that the question was mandatory, or lacked a “none of the above” option. They’re all mediocrities as far as I’m concerned — good people perhaps but unequal to the task. I picked Cain but only as a least objectionable option and to allow my ballot to be submitted. I didn’t really mean it.

I didn’t appreciate that the question was mandatory, or lacked a “none of the above” option. They’re all mediocrities as far as I’m concerned — good people perhaps but unequal to the task. I picked Cain but only as a least objectionable option and to allow my ballot to be submitted. I didn’t really mean it.

rrpjr on August 2, 2011 at 12:13 PM

A sentiment with which I am strongly inclined to agree. But that’s reality in politics. Sometimes the person you’re hoping will make it all the way doesn’t even make it past the primaries. That’s life in the gritty city. I would hope that Palin supporters and others would have a backup plan; it’s just common sense.

You know, I know nothing about where Perry stands on social and fiscal issues, but have come to know a lot about where Palin stands and trust that consistancy.

One observation though, it would seem that the Perry camp constantly keeps putting out the “I am going to make a decision real soon” theme, but keeps delaying it. Yet he builds org in Iowa.

On the other hand, Palin does not feel the need to do that…..i.e., the pundits are either all but sure she will not run, (Krauthammer et al), or are sure she will. Yet she has little if any org in Iowa.

Whomever declares by September, (probably both), the compare and contrast will be swift and obvious.

Interesting numbers this month. “Unexpectedly”, Gov. Palin holds a substantial and growing margin. Now for some analysis to make a few heads explode…
The remaining support for Bachmann, and the growing support for Perry, are primarily found from among those who have already staked out their ground as ABP diehards. The reason for Perry’s surge is twofold: a) Bachmann has, unfortunately, gotten shaky in how she addresses a few issues, costing her some ABP backing b) Perry has been making the most Tea Party-ish statements of late (other than Palin, or Rubio)
This analysis is further supported by Rubio’s position as VP favorite, because he is the most vocal, concise, clearcut voice in Congress on the issues favored by strong Conservatives.
As for the “who did you formerly support” question, it is unfortunate that it is subject to fraudulent application. The suggestion that many who have changed their vote from one ABP choice to another, but who always mark Palin as the choice they have left, is hard to deny given the broader numbers.
Bottom line. Perry is the “next best thing” this month for the ABP crowd, since Bachmann has managed to (unwisely) distance herself from Gov. Palin in a number of ways. As soon as more of Perry’s real position on issues emerges, he will settle back into the pack with the rest who are “ABP”.
And yet, being an anonymous survey, there are enough folks who are honest in spite of their comments to the contrary, and stick with who they know is the strongest voice matching their own values, beliefs, and constitutional principles. So unless someone else emerges who can articulate those things better, Gov. Palin will remain where she is in these polls.
Freelancer on August 2, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Excellent and spot on analysis.

I think Patrick highlights the up and coming flavor of the month not because be doesn’t like Palin but to keep the poll from becoming stale. Unless Palin definitively states she’s not running, her support among true conservatives will remain high and she will continue to win this poll. She has true conviction and her beliefs are part of her genetic make up so she is not prone to gaffes.

If they are politically engaged, even in the intellectual sense, they will gravitate toward whoever matches up with the majority of the above. If those image-related parts of their being are more dominant, they may suppress all or part of the others to match an internally determined expectation. If they have become strongly interested in a particular single issue, they will also suppress any of the above which don’t coincide with their stance on that issue.

But alone in the dark, the conscience and principles tend to become more dominant in spite of all pressures in opposition. Gov. Palin’s presence, presentation, unambiguous declarations, personal and family life most closely resonate with the conscience and principles at the core of most conservatives. That fact will not go away, and every attempt to subvert it (24,000 emails anyone?) will not put a dent in it.

On the other hand, Palin does not feel the need to do that…..i.e., the pundits are either all but sure she will not run, (Krauthammer et al), or are sure she will. Yet she has little if any org in Iowa.

…

Starlink on August 2, 2011 at 12:43 PM

…little if any org in Iowa? Apparently you haven’t been paying attention.

Ten years as governor of Texas and you don’t know where he stands on the issues? I think that says more about you than him.

Y-not on August 2, 2011 at 1:28 PM

Now that you mention it, I do seem to recall something about Governor Gardasil requiring minor children to be vaccinated with or without the consent of their parents. I know where he stands on at least one issue.

You’re right. There was no opt out for that vaccine. In fact, I believe Perry ordered the Texas Rangers to go seat to seat in school buses and jab girls in the arm. To this day, millions of Texas school girls have been force to receive that vaccine.

You’re right. There was no opt out for that vaccine. In fact, I believe Perry ordered the Texas Rangers to go seat to seat in school buses and jab girls in the arm. To this day, millions of Texas school girls have been force to receive that vaccine.

You are really well-informed.

Y-not on August 2, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Link to the specifics of the executive order he used to go over the heads of the legislature, and I might actually think you know what you’re talking about.

But alone in the dark, the conscience and principles tend to become more dominant in spite of all pressures in opposition. Gov. Palin’s presence, presentation, unambiguous declarations, personal and family life most closely resonate with the conscience and principles at the core of most conservatives. That fact will not go away, and every attempt to subvert it (24,000 emails anyone?) will not put a dent in it.

If Palin and/or Perry doesn’t get in the race, I’ll go for Pawlenty, no more newbies in the White House. Being a talking head for the Tea Party is NOT executive experience Michelle Bachmann.

Perry isn’t perfect, none of them are, but I like his 10th Amendment stance on most issues. I wish the social conservatives hadn’t pressured him to change his statement on gay marriage, he was correct.

The Feds should stick to their responsibilities as stated in the Constitution and leave the rest to the states.

Isn’t Perry a liberal on illegal immigration? His positions on this issue need to be hashed out before conservatives looking for the promised land candidate get carried away.

DaMav on August 2, 2011 at 2:37 PM

All the candidates have their blemishes. However, it does appear that the ABP crowd is coalescing around Perry. At least they are choosing someone who can win this time. As with Trump, Cain, and Bachmann before him, his support will peak and then wane, but he is the best alternative to Palin that has been suggested so far.

I would guess the difference between Perry’s base and Palin’s is that Palin’s base is almost exclusively pro-Palin whereas I get the feeling that Perry’s base contains a lot of people who are there because they want someone who is “Not Mitt and not Palin” more than a big groundswell of people who think Perry is the best thing since sliced bread.

Bottom line: Palin is the only prospective candidate who has been through general presidential election level scrutiny. That being the case, her support is not going to fluctuate nearly as much as the flavor of the month people whose warts all haven’t driven a few news cycles yet.

Looks like Bachmann hiring Big Ed Rollins to trash Sarah Palin has really paid off well — for everyone but Bachmann :-)

DaMav on August 2, 2011 at 2:31 PM

Yep, and if Sarah Announces, I suspect that Michelle will make a serious mistake going after her -since Michelle has been more of a Palin place holder than anything.

The thing to watch is how much and how far the inner circle GOP red-guards (Krauthammer, Couter, Rove etc.) might be willing to go in taking her down for their guy Romney. If they do take her down, the GOP will go down with her, is my prediction.It simply can’t survive another rejection of the base desires

Perry is a non starter. I will not support in the primaries someone who helped Al Gore rise to power. It sounds like he has a lot of other liberal tendencies as well.

scotash on August 2, 2011 at 4:37 PM

If we really want change, we can’t get it going all ga ga over someone who sounds good, talks good, and has a recent record of being good. Conversions to conservatism by professional politians are mostly sheer opportunism and the source of great regret after they’re elected.

Sarah has been solid in her conservative values from day one -that’s why they hate her so much -that’s why I love her so much.

Not interested in the job, but here goes. An individual has a conscience, beliefs, a set of principles and values, and a lifestyle. They also have self-image, self-perceived other-image, and peer pressure.

If they are politically engaged, even in the intellectual sense, they will gravitate toward whoever matches up with the majority of the above. If those image-related parts of their being are more dominant, they may suppress all or part of the others to match an internally determined expectation. If they have become strongly interested in a particular single issue, they will also suppress any of the above which don’t coincide with their stance on that issue.

But alone in the dark, the conscience and principles tend to become more dominant in spite of all pressures in opposition. Gov. Palin’s presence, presentation, unambiguous declarations, personal and family life most closely resonate with the conscience and principles at the core of most conservatives. That fact will not go away, and every attempt to subvert it (24,000 emails anyone?) will not put a dent in it.

Freelancer on August 2, 2011 at 11:52 AM
I like your comments very much – and I suspect that is the way many of us feel. Also we trust her. That’s why the
false narrative that others spin doesn’t affect our support. We know
how she thinks, have researched her record, watched her
speeches and read her op eds and facebook postings. We
supporters know where she stands. If others are confused,
we will wait until they figure it out. If others take their support away from her because of a supposed flub, etc. we know that they are just skittish because we are used to politicians betraying us; it is understandable to be cautious. But, at the end of the day there is no other
politician like her. She leads.

How can people want Rubio who I really like for VP when he is not a natural born citizen? What I am missing here — his parents were not naturalized citizens when he was born or has the Constitution changed? If we have gone after Obama for not being a natural born citizen (which he is not), why would we choose Rubio to be VP?

lol Which just so happens to be the evidence that confirms that Palins support is brought about by her status as a victim. She plays to that with all the complaining about how meanly the LSM treats her.

A sentiment with which I am strongly inclined to agree. But that’s reality in politics. Sometimes the person you’re hoping will make it all the way doesn’t even make it past the primaries. That’s life in the gritty city. I would hope that Palin supporters and others would have a backup plan; it’s just common sense.

gryphon202 on August 2, 2011 at 12:37 PM

I agree, heck 2008 I wanted Duncan Hunter. My vote changed when he did not go anywhere. Palin is why I was excited in any way to vote for the GOP. Otherwise my vote would have been a vote against Obama. Because of Palin the GOP got more then just my vote. If Romney wins, all he gets is my vote, the anti-Obama vote.