THN.com Blog: Numbers say J-S Giguereâ€™s the best goaltender

J.S. Giguere won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2003 when Anaheim was defeated by N.J. in the Cup final. (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)

Jason Kay
2008-03-09 12:04:48

About a month ago, we closed our Goalie Issue in which we anointed Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo the No. 1 stopper in the game this season in a ranking of the NHL’s Top 30.

The list is highly credible, taking input from NHL scouts, and given shape by senior writer Mike Brophy, a man whose opinions on the game I respect deeply.

That said, I don’t agree with that selection any longer.

I was tweaked earlier this week when a subscriber pointed out Luongo’s numbers this season aren’t top of the field. So I decided to do some research and asked of Fantasy Sports Services to help with an “outside the box” crunch. Granted, stats only tell part of the tale, but with 30 teams playing in four time zones, it’s as close as we get to an objective barometer.

Below is a slew of comparative data and interpretations for five goalies I’ve identified as the leading candidates for the Vezina Trophy, with their NHL rank in parentheses. All stats are as of March 5:

Interpretation: Goalies are the first to say W’s are the most crucial stat, but it’s also a reflection of the teams in front of them and number of games played. Nabokov, for example, led with 64 GP; Giguere was at 52. Slight edge to Nabokov and Brodeur.

Interpretation: A decent indicator of play under pressure, but doesn’t take into account whether a team is winning or trailing by a big margin. It’s interesting to note the top three have a noticeable increase from their overall SP, Luongo’s is about the same, while Nabokov’s dips. Edge to Giguere.

Interpretation: As the numbers indicate, these chances are among the easiest for ‘tenders and may help pad their overall SP. No edge.

Conclusions? If I were deciding today, I’d vote this way:

1. Giguere2. Brodeur3. Luongo4. Leclaire5. Nabokov

Giguere’s numbers compare favorably in all the key categories except wins – and he’d be right there with Brodeur and Nabokov if he’d played in the same number of games. Detractors say he’s the beneficiary of the best defense corps in the NHL, which may be true, but shouldn’t be held against him. The stats clearly show his save percentage is better in the crunch and on higher-percentage chances (except, notably, the PK).

For me, Brodeur is a close second. Leclaire has been a wonderful feel-good story, but if he can’t get his team into the playoffs, that’ll work against him. The same should hold true for Luongo, whose pressure-time and in-close numbers aren’t as impressive as his fellow Quebecers. Nabokov deserves attention for his strong and massive body of work this season, but his stats don’t hold up alongside the top four.

Let the debates continue…

Jason Kay is the editor of The Hockey News and a regular contributor to THN.com. His blog appears every weekend.

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