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Ed EspinozaWestern states Democratic consultant; former DNC official :

Mis-Observations on Texas Latino Voters

The April edition of the Texas Observer includes a story entitled “Demographics No Longer Destiny for Democrats,” in which blame is pinned on the inability of Democrats to increase voter participation among Texas Latinos. While it’s true that Latinos in Texas do underperform in elections, it’s also true that Republicans have kept their thumb on the scales to keep Latino voter participation low. This is an important topic to address, but it’s also important not to over simplify the reasons behind the issue.

The Latino vote in Texas is often referred to as “The Sleeping Giant,” a rapidly growing population which has the potential to wield tremendous political influence if the community becomes politically engaged. Seeing as Latino voters typically vote Democratic by a 2-to-1 margin, this coming wave will change the stranglehold that Republicans have had on Texas for two decades.

But the Sleeping Giant won’t wake up on its own. Republicans know this, so it has been in the interest of that party to let the giant sleep as long as possible.

Let us count the ways they have done this:

Divide and Conquer. Among the more egregious efforts to stifle participation, Republicans have used the power of redistricting to water down the effect of the Latino vote, or in some cases eliminate it all together. After the last census, Texas was allotted four new congressional seats – more than any other state in the nation – based largely on the growth of the Latino and African American communities. But the resulting congressional maps generated only one minority opportunity district and three new Republican districts. To justify these maps, they utilized a method called “Optimal Hispanic Republican Voting Strength,” a process that involves taking Latino voters with the worst voter participation rates and putting them in the same district. Thus, you have created a majority Latino district where the Latinos don’t really vote – eliminating them from the electoral equation. So that 30% of voters who support Republicans can effectively become 60% of the votes on Election Day. Thus, a Republican Latino district is one in which the Latinos don’t actually vote.

Hostile rhetoric. Another way to suppress turnout is to disengage the community as a whole from government. Legislative initiatives such as Voter ID and Sanctuary Cities (a Texas version of the Arizona anti-immigration law) are offered up as solutions, but the problems they portend to solve don’t really exist. However, the inflammatory rhetoric around them galvanizes Republican base voters and turns off Latino voters. So in a way, they do offer a solution – but it’s an electoral one benefitting Republicans.

Disengage the community. Once the watered-down congressional and legislative districts are in place and the hostile rhetoric has ratcheted-up, it’s hard to see why any Latino would be motivated to show up and cast ballots. Politics is built on relationships, and when there is no relationship with government or leaders, voters disengage. Thus Republicans win on a third front: a psychological impact of a person not caring enough to vote, or – worse – that their vote just doesn’t matter.

It’s true that Democrats – and the progressive community as a whole – need a stronger and more robust effort in mobilizing Texas Latinos. But it’s a tall order when attempting to organize a community that has had institutional barriers layered onto it for years by Texas Republicans.

In examining the weakness of the Latino vote, the Texas Observer takes aim at those who are trying to fix the problem, when it should be aiming its guns at the Republican culprits who built the problem in the first place.

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