A review of London’s updated BRT master plan makes it clear that if the proposed BRT plan is implemented it will have a profound impact on the city’s future.

The $500-million BRT proposal rests on the belief that by making modest improvements in public transit service while significantly increasing traffic congestion along London’s major arterial corridors, particularly on routes heading to the city’s core, Londoners will abandon their vehicles in favour of taking the bus.

The BRT plan acknowledges that the removal of traffic lanes on portions of Richmond Street, Dundas Street and Wellington Road will result in increased traffic congestion in these corridors. The plan also makes it clear that traffic congestion will worsen at most of the signalized intersections along the BRT routes including Oxford Street because of transit-priority measures and because left-turns will be restricted to signalized intersections, requiring that additional turning time be allowed to accommodate vehicles making U-turns.

How will Londoners react to a significant reduction in private vehicle access to downtown and destinations along the BRT corridor at the same time that roadway access is being improved on the city’s periphery? BRT proponents hope that the increased traffic congestion created by the BRT plan will convince Londoners to abandon their vehicles in favour of public transit, but it is far more likely that businesses and residents will instead elect to switch from areas with reduced private vehicle access to areas with greater access, accelerating sprawl.

A major fault with the updated BRT plan is that it looks primarily at two possible future transportation scenarios for London: a business as usual model that would include some road widenings largely on the city’s periphery along with maintaining the city’s conventional bus transit service or by proceeding with the proposed BRT system along with further road widenings. The updated plan anticipates that transit ridership will continue to increase under either scenario. Yet if the BRT system is fully implemented, the plan anticipates that by 2035, public transit use in London will only be 10 percent higher than if the city sticks with its current conventional public transit system.

Are those the only two options or would it be preferable to instead choose a regional transportation plan that would improve mobility for all Londoners, rather than making modest improvements in transit service at the expense of private vehicle users?

The BRT plan suggests an initial step to implementation would be to immediately provide enhanced transit service along some of the proposed BRT corridors. It’s likely that these far less disruptive transit improvements would provide many of the benefits attributed to a BRT system without reducing mobility for private vehicle users.

Instead of proceeding with the highly disruptive BRT system, London would be better served by adopting a transportation plan that improves transit service throughout the city, including the proposed BRT corridors, improves traffic and transit flow on its major arterials by adding turn lanes at intersections and bus bays at transit stops, completes selected road widenings, embraces emerging vehicle and ride-sharing technologies and accelerates improvements for bicyclists and pedestrians.

Londoners are supportive of improved mobility in the city, including improved public transit, but are rightly skeptical of making improvements to transit at the expense of those who travel in private vehicles. Instead, the city needs a transportation plan that improves mobility for everyone. Moving forward with a BRT plan that lacks significant public support is politically perilous. At the very least, any transportation plan that will significantly change how London functions should be put to the voters.

— Rocky Moretti is a transportation policy analyst who lives in London.

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