Friday, 27 November 2015

Amid the turmoil in the Labour Party, it seems rather
appropriate that this year’s John Lewis Christmas commercial features a
confused old man who lives on another planet. If you’ve seen the ad, you’ll
know that the gentleman in question is rather out of touch with what’s happening
on Earth, although he still hopes to retain some kind of connection with the
people who inhabit the place.

On the TV, there’s a happy ending. For Jeremy Corbyn,
there most certainly won’t be. The issue is not so much what happens to the MP
for Islington North and his sidekick, Chairman Mao. They are destined for
political oblivion – perhaps sooner than many people originally imagined. The real
question is whether they will manage to destroy the Labour Party in the
meantime.

There will undoubtedly be some kind of attempt at a coup
in 2016. Some MPs are already opening calling for Corbyn’s resignation just two
months after he was elected, so the pressure is only going to become more and
more intense. But there’s a big obstacle, as we all know. The Labour electoral
system was rightly changed to give members the ultimate say over the
leadership.

So, we have a conundrum. MPs can force a contest, but
Jeremy will probably win again. Why? Because the membership is hopelessly and
catastrophically divorced from the interests, aspirations and political views
of the wider electorate. Common sense is off the agenda because of a combination
of long-term ‘sleepers’ (left-wingers who kept their heads down during the
Blair and Brown era) and an influx of new people who’ve spent the past 10 years
slagging the Labour Party off.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a lot of
confusion in terms of data and organisation. I ended up unable to vote in the
summer, despite having been a member of the party since the 1980s. Some people
receive emails requesting their views on Syria and others don’t. I’m not
suggesting this division is a reflection of political manipulation. It is,
however, a sign that plebiscites and informal surveys have little validity. Are
you a three-quid member or a proper member or just someone who signed up to
something or other online? Everything is a blur.

While some MPs have been talking to lawyers about the
possibility of excluding Jez from any re-run ballot, this would be a perilous
route and would rightly lead to accusations that the contest was undemocratic.

Another option is that Corbyn is paid a visit by the men
in grey suits. Perhaps the boilersuited men of the trade unions. They have a
conversation in which they tell him the game is up. Although they backed him
because of his strong stance against austerity and in favour of trade union
rights, they could tell him that his sheer incompetence and lack of popularity
is proving a disaster for their members.

I do think it’s conceivable there’s a scenario in which
Corbyn throws in the towel. But the pressure will have to be relentless and the
ultimatum very direct.

But if the Labour Party can’t be rescued from itself, there’s
only one other option left. A new party must inevitably be formed.

Of course, there is a reluctance to countenance the idea
right now, because our first-past-the-post electoral system argues strongly
against it. In reality though, the
schism needn’t necessarily prove catastrophic in the long term. It is arguable that
the formation of the SDP in 1981 exposed the lack of support for Michael Foot’s
left-wing agenda and led to a reformist era under Neil Kinnock. Ultimately, it
paved the way for Labour to become electable once again.

Let’s imagine a situation in which Jeremy Corbyn remains
leader of something which is notionally called The Labour Party. A shell of its
historic former self, it pursues the 1980s leftist agenda beloved of Corbyn and
his friends Ken Livingstone, Diane Abbott, John McDonnell et al. If left to its
own devices, I would see a party of this type perhaps attracting 20% of the
popular vote in a general election.

Meanwhile, a mainstream social democratic alternative under
the leadership of, say, Chuka Umunna or David Miliband starts to provide a
credible and coherent alternative. It speaks up effectively against the
ideological agenda of the Tory government, but sounds credible on security, the
economy and welfare.

In 2020, I have no doubt that such a split in the Labour
Party would lead to a Conservative victory under the current electoral system.
But sadly, we have to recognise that a Conservative victory is coming anyway. The
question is how the left successfully rebuilds in time for 2025.

The formation of the new party would leave Corbyn
vulnerable and ideologically exposed. He’d be left with the name ‘Labour’, but
it would now be a label associated only with the Bennite tradition he
represents.

It’s difficult to know for certain how events will
unfold. But it’s certainly worth getting our telescopes out and looking beyond
the next general election.