According
Gravity
Model
(Matias,
2004;
Dubarry,
2000)
and
latter
linnemann
(1966),
the demand
between two
countries
for tourism
depends
on
three
categories of
factors;
driving
factors (
of the origin),
attractive
(of the
destination) and
the
resistance
factors
(individually
between
an
origin
and
a
specific
destination)

Push factors,
sometimes called
“diffusers”
factors,
are
the
characteristics
of a
population in
a
market
that
encourages
origin
travel.

Push
factors
(the
origin)

Size of
population

GDP
(gross
domestic)
and
revenue
trends

Distribution
of income

Distribution of
education

Distribution of
age

Time for
fun

Family
structure

Momentum
(inertia)

Pull
factors (destination)

Friends
/ relatives

Climate
/
weather

Commercial
links

The
social
/
cultural

Destination
marketing
programs

Distribution
channels

Attractive
destination

Special
events

Additional
destinations

Habits

Resistant
factorsa.
Prices

The
price of the
product
(products)

Prices of
substitutes

Prices
of
participants

Needs
prices

Exchange rate

Taxes and fees

b.
Actions
of
competitors

c. Supply
capacity

d. Distance

e. Travel
time

f. Place
of origin
where exchange
shall be
carried
out

g.
Border
controls,
customs and
other
border
formalities

h. Taxes
arrival
/ departure
and
terminal
fees

i. War
/
terrorism
/ crime
/
social
unrest

j. Natural
and
man-made
disasters

k. Physical obstacles

Figure
I.Potentialexplanatoryvariablesinaregressionmodelto
forecasttourismdemandsFor
example, if everything
else is
equal, a
large
population of
a
region
will
generate
more trips
than
a
smaller
population.
Momentum-boost,
push, “mobility”
force,refers
to
the
effects
of
custom,
recommendations
of
friends
or relatives,
institutional
relations
and
other factors
that may
trigger
the
requirements of a
certain
origin.

Pull
factors
are those
factors that
attract
visitors
to a
destination
to impose.
Visits to
friends and
relatives
is a
primary
motivation
for
visiting
that has for purpose entertainment,
and
cities
that
have
mostly
ethnic
populations
may
especially
benefit
from
this
type
of
travel.
Commercial
include
presence of
major offices
of large corporate in
destination, or
having a
concentration of
financial
or
manufacturing firms.
The
social
/
cultural
ties might
include
ethnic
neighborhood
or
particular
institutions,
cultural
centers,
religious
sites,
museums and
monuments.
Religious
similarities
between
the
two
countries
may also be
a
strong
influence
to carry
travel
between them.
Such
other
factors
include the
similarity
of language
and presence
in
a state
(country) in
a population
with
residents of
another
state
(country)

Stable
factors(resistance)
include those
factors that
bind
to
travel
between
the
country
of
origin i
and
a
destination
j.
For example
price
is
a modifier
of
resistance,
because
more
powerful
travelers
have
limited
incomes,
especially
in
relation to
their
everyday and
long-term needs.
From this
point of view
we will try
to
explain
tourism
flows
originating
from the
Bulgaria
addressed
to
Albania.

Methodology

The
methodology
is
based
on
secondary
data
collection and processing. There are
assembled
time series
of
annual
arrivals
during
1999-2010
period and
quarterly
arrivals
series
during
2005-2010
period. The
market share
is calculated
as the ratio
of
total annual
Bulgarian
arrivals.
The growth
rate is
calculated
as
a
percentage
of
current arrivals
to an
earlier
period.
While
the growth
trend
is calculated as
a simple
regression
equation
coefficient
depending on
time
period.
Seasonality
coefficient
is
calculated
as
a
component
of
seasonality,
in the decomposition
model.

Bulgariantouristicdemand

Graph
of the demand
for Bulgaria
is showing a
decline
until
2003,
following
from a growth.
Average
tourist
arrivals from
the year 1999 to 2010
is
7,849
tourists /
year in
2010 compared
with
7305
tourists
/ year
for the period from
1999 to 2009.
The average
number of
arrivals
per capita
is
0.001
tourists.

Graphic I. The number
of Bulgarian tourists coming in Albania during 1999-2000

Graphic II. The share
of Bulgarian touristic demand from the total of touristic demand

Growth chart, shows
a decrease in
2000
(-20%)
and
in
2002
(-10%),
the maximum
increase
in
2003
by 50%,
growing
smaller
below.
Feature is
the regular
cycle
of
ups and downs
of growth
pattern.
In the 2010
it is noticed
a decreased
(-0.4%).
Average
/ year
of growth
during the period of 1999-2010
were
12.9%,
with a
deviation of
±
3.9%,
an increase
comparable to
France.

Graphic III. The
growth rate of Bulgarian touristic demand between the period
1999-2010

Bulgaria has a
growing
rhythm
that
changes
almost
in a cyclical
way.
There is a
positive
trend
and the
growth
rate is
0.011.

Graphic IV. Trend of
long-term growth
of touristic demand for the period 1999-2010

Bulgaria has a peak period
during July-September,
with the
coefficient
of 1.3,
the period from
April to June
it has a
1.1
coefficient,
October-December
period
it has
the coefficient of 0.9,
and the
period from
January to March
(the period
of decline)
with the coefficient of
0.7.
Bulgarian
touristic demand is not
seasonal.
This means
that it
is
mainly
a
business
tourism, and
other
minor
fluctuations
are
due
to
reasons
such as
extreme
sports
tourism,
transit,
(the
tourists
who
go
to
Greece
but
who want to
travel
to
see
all
Riviera
(Mediterranean
coast), as
well as
tourism
remains
attributed
to
friends and
family. Bulgarian
demand
is more
seasonal
compared
to
Turkey. This
is because the
Turkish
request
is
made
only for
business
and
family
relationships.
While in
the case of
Bulgaria it
is
a small part
coming
for tourism
genuine.
This
is
because
Bulgaria
is
closer,
and those
who
love
special
interest
tourism
can
use Albania
as a
destination.
Also
take
advantage
from
transit
flows to
Greece.
Average
three
monthly
demand is
2896
tourists/quarterly,
and
the tendency
of
demand
is
83.5(the
rhythm of growth of the growth).

Graphic
V. 3-months
demand of Bulgarian tourists for Albania. The period belongs to
January 2005-june2011

Bulgaria
ranks
13
on
average
arrivals
/ year,
and
10th
place
for
the
number
of
tourists
/
residents.

Ranking
of countriesaccordingtothecoefficientofthetendencyofgrowthfortheperiod1999-2010

COUNTRY

b0

Kosovo

0.655368

Malta

0.177994

Ukraine

0.056018

Croatia

0.046224

Israel

0.045317

Russian
Federation

0.037313

Japan

0.024288

Romania

0.021588

Greece

0.020935

Serbia

0.020935

France

0.02061

Bosnia
and Herzegovina

0.01902

Denmark

0.016717

Turkey

0.016561

Germany

0.016429

Slovenia

0.015092

Spain

0.014692

Italy

0.012576

Korea,
Republic of

0.011517

Bulgaria

0.011137

Switzerland

0.010515

Norway

0.009613

TFYR
of Macedonia

0.001611

Sweden

-0.00673

Austria

-0.00741

United
States of America

-0.01125

Ireland

-0.01765

Belgium

-0.01791

Finland

-0.01889

United
Kingdom

-0.01894

Australia

-0.01941

Netherlands

-0.01993

Canada

-0.02324

Hungary

-0.02363

Poland

-0.04619

China

-0.05297

Czech
Republic

-0.05867

Montenegro

-0.08692

Slovakia

-0.10925

This
in terms of
arrivals
in
Albania
but
let's
see
what
type
of
tourists
are
Bulgarians;
following
conclusions
have
emerged
from the
study "Flash
EB No 291– Survey on the attitudes of Europeans towards
tourism, wave 2”

Table
III

European
CommunitycountriesaspotentialdemandfortourismoutsidetheEuropeancommunity

nr

COUNTRY

EU

NON
EU

Potencial

1

GERMANY

81802257

EU

26994745

NON
EU

6544181

2

POLONI

38167329

EU

5725099

NON
EU

1526693

3

SPAIN

45989016

EU

6438462

NON
EU

1379670

4

CHECK
REPUBLIK

10506813

EU

3782453

NON
EU

1260818

5

NETHERLANDS

16574989

EU

6795745

NON
EU

1160249

6

FRANCE

64716310

EU

7765957

NON
EU

970744.7

7

SLOVAKIA

5424925

EU

1790225

NON
EU

922237.3

8

TURKY

72561312

EU

2902452

NON
EU

725613.1

9

SLOVENIA

2046976

EU

184227.8

NON
EU

655032.3

10

BELGIUM

10839905

EU

4769558

NON
EU

650394.3

11

HUNGARY

10143324

EU

1521499

NON
EU

608599.4

12

SWEDEN

9340682

EU

2241764

NON
EU

560440.9

13

NORWAY

4858199

EU

1457460

NON
EU

437237.9

14

ROMANIA

21461186

EU

4721461

NON
EU

429223.7

15

BULGARY

10839905

EU

975591.5

NON
EU

325197.2

16

FINLAND

5351427

EU

1070285

NON
EU

321085.6

17

DENMARK

5529449

EU

2101191

NON
EU

276472.5

18

UNITED
KINGDOM

62026962

EU

NON
EU

248107.8

19

PORTUGALY

10637713

EU

1276526

NON
EU

212754.3

20

LITHUANI

3329039

EU

1797681

NON
EU

199742.3

21

CROATIA

4415747

EU

44157.47

NON
EU

176629.9

22

IRELAND

4467854

EU

1965856

NON
EU

134035.6

23

AUSTRI

8375290

EU

2763846

NON
EU

83752.9

24

ESTONI

1340127

EU

415439.4

NON
EU

80407.62

25

ITALY

60340328

EU

NON
EU

60340.33

26

MACEDONIA

2052722

NON
EU

32843.55

27

LUKSEMBURG

502066

EU

276136.3

NON
EU

30123.96

28

MALTA

414372

EU

240335.8

NON
EU

16574.88

29

CYPRO

803147

EU

401573.5

NON
EU

16062.94

30

ISLAND

317630

EU

85760.1

NON
EU

15881.5

31

GREECE

11305118

NON
EU

11305.12

Bulgarians
traveltrends

Top
of Form

Bulgarians
make more short trips than the European average.

Only
63% of Bulgarians do long vacation. They make long trips, less than
an average European. Bulgarians like mostly passive vacations (more
than the average for Europe), the sea and sun holidays also, like
keeping themselves. But they like a few visits to cities, sports,
getting acquainted with the culture of the country they visit. They
are natural tourists 2 times more than an average European.

They
do not travel a lot by plane (far less than the European average).
This is for two major reasons; because it is expensive for them and
they do not travel very far (2 major international destinations for
Bulgaria are Turkey and Greece). Bulgarian tourists do not use at
all water transport, but use a lot the railway transport, bus (3
times the European average), as well as they use a lot the car mode.
They use bike mode, relatively a lot compared to Europeans.
Bulgarians are trying to use cheaper forms of transport. Proximity
addressed to Albania enables catching of this destination, with
these forms of transportation.

77% of Bulgarians organize
the journey by themselves (much more than the European average).
While elements of travel or the entire journey, booked by travel
agencies or on the internet, is made, far less than the European
average. Unfortunately Bulgarian small percentage of the total
population that has visited Albania makes it difficult for
Bulgarians to capture it with this form. But an advantage for
Albania is the fact that with Bulgaria has old historical connection
(the common period in the communist bloc, as well as strong cultural
exchanges of that period). Another element that should be mentioned
are the exchange of students of that time, especially Albanian
student who went to Bulgaria and some of them get married with
Bulgarian girls, have created a specific market called 'visiting
friends and family. "

49% of Bulgarians prefer
traditional destinations, only 25% prefer emerging destinations
(Albanian case), while 22% does not see this fact as an important
fact. Approximately 50% of Bulgarians can see as a potential
destination Albanian country.

Approximately 70% of
Bulgarians are value oriented a value that is considerable. Albanian
country can compete with Bulgarian country as a destination, only
looking to provide a good product with good quality, which remains a
challenge for Albania.

Approximately 70% of
Bulgarians rely on personal sources and the recommendations of
friends and companions searching information about the destinations.
We cannot compete with the recently price with Turkey or Greece. But
an important source, media, remains apparently high in
decision-making weight (greater than the European average tourist).
This means that we need to be present with reports on Albania
country in the Bulgarian media. Bulgarians and Albanians have
confidence in the media.

Attractions; Mainly want
to perform outdoor activities you like entertainment (more than
European average), they like cultural attractions (less than the
European average).

This
summer trips
to other
countries
rose
by
50
percent.
Bulgarian
tourists
prefer
charter
flights
and
all-inclusive
vacations.
Increased
market
demand
for
vacation
need much
cheaper
packets. This
caused
a significant
decline in
prices. Also
began
purchasing
sites
massive
boom,
where
tour
operators and
hoteliers
speculate
with
very cheap
packages
for marketing
purpose.

Bulgaria has 2
main
advantages
in comparison
with Albania.
The first
is the fact
that Bulgaria
itself has
access to the
sea, Black
sea, with
a
beautiful
coastline
and
very low
prices, the
lowest to Balkans.
However
a portion
of the
population
travels
outside
Bulgaria,
driven by
the
trend
of
change,
to see something
different.

Conclusions

On
my opinion there are many strong and weak points of Albania against
Bulgaria as origin: Bulgaria has a relatively large market for
Albania, but with lower incomes than Western European countries. It
has a bipolar distribution of income, but it has a new age
population, and a great desire to rest, travel and entertain.

Albania
on the other hand, is a destination for Bulgaria with many
fascinating attractions, new places to be seen, natural resources,
cultural and historical sites, with a warm Mediterranean climate,
suitable for travel from April-November, with a very interesting
story (with common period, Ottoman occupation and communist periods,
but different in various forms) and a culture that arouse interest,
similar in some respects to that of Bulgaria, but also very different
in many other aspects. Unfortunately we have problems with the
quality of our product (an infrastructure that leaves much to be
desired, a not good quality service), distribution (Albania has not
entered on the agenda of any major tour operator, and it cannot
compete with the price to travel agencies in Bulgaria).

Prices
are our biggest problem, because are high for a given quality. Our
neighbors are our direct competitors, with a superior offer. An
advantage for Albania is the short distance, but since travel is done
mainly by car or bus it returns in a long journey. One possibility is
that to extenuate the registration procedures and customs control at
the border line. From my perspective Bulgarian interest market
segments for Albania must be.

1.
Youth and studentMarket.
Young people require new experiences and tries to expand them
borders. Albania appears a good alternative to prove himself, facing
a challenge in a unknown place, but close and that does not require a
high cost to capture.

2. The
business market.
It is currently the largest market that comes to Albania from
Bulgaria. It is much important to convince the businessmen to return
together with families and friends, this time for tourism.

3
.Visiting friends and relatives. For
the reasons we mentioned above it is an important market for Albania.
It is important to have a specific strategy to attract this market.

4. Transit
market,
that transit in Greece. They must return next time to visit Albania,
or at least to stay a few days in the country.

For
every each of this markets
must be
designed
specific
objectives
and
strategies in
view of what
we
want
to achieve.