Friday, September 19, 2008

With the exception of closer races in Edmonton-Centre and Edmonton-Strathcona, it's a fair bet that Alberta's parliamentary delegation will be draped in various shades of blue after the October 14 vote. Ken Chapman has shared some interesting thoughts on Alberta's political burnout, and I can agree that after the 2006 PC leadership selection, the 2007 municipal elections, and the 2008 provincial election a lot of politically active Albertans are feeling the political overkill (I know I am...).

With the recent political past in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look what the Alberta numbers from the 2006 federal election and 2008 provincial election to see what they can offer.

January 2006 Federal Election - Alberta

PartyConservative

Seats28 seats

Votes930,817

Percentage65%

Liberal

0 seats

219,431

15.3%

NDP

0 seats

167,566

11.7%

Green

0 seats

93,919

6.6%

Independent

0 seats

14,261

1%

March 2008 Provincial Election - Alberta

PC

72 seats

501,028

52.66%

Liberal

9 seats

250,862

26.37%

NDP

2 seats

81,043

8.52%

Green

0 seats

43,563

4.58%

Wildrose Alliance

0 seats

64,370

6.77%

Though it's important to recognize the different contexts in which both these elections occurred, it is intereting to take a look at and compare the numbers.

It seems clear that Albertans were a lot more eager to elect Stephen Harper's Conservatives in 2006 than they were to elect Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives in 2008. This is indicative of many things, but after 37 years in office Alberta's governing Tories aren't exactly energizing and exciting political machine of Peter Lougheed's era. The low voter turnout can be blamed on a lot of thing, but I would gather that it had more to do with institutional mediocrity and predetermined outcomes (which isn't wholly the PCs fault).

The numbers also show that many Albertans differentiate their provincial and federal political ballots, which isn't much of a surprise -- I'm one of those many Albertans (having voted federal NDP in 2006 and Alberta Liberal in 2008). I'm particularly interested to see which party takes the second place spot in Alberta on October 14. Depending on how Elizabeth May and Jack Layton perform during the October 2nd televised debate, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greens and the NDP boost their numbers across Alberta. The Greens have a lot of potential to increase their tally in rural Alberta, where dissatisfied voters seem to have a natural gag reflex to the Liberals and NDP, as witnessed by Joe Anglin and Edwin Erickson's strong second place finishes in Lacombe-Ponoka and Drayton Valley-Calmar in the provincial election.

Also, though I'm willing to be $100 that the Liberals will not elect any MPs from Calgary, it will be interesting to see if the recent Cowtown Liberal gains in the provincial election translate into an increase in the Federal Liberal vote in Calgary-Centre, Calgary-Centre North, Calgary-Northeast, and Calgary-West (which overlap the seats held by Liberal MLAs Harry Chase, Kent Hehr, Darshan Kang, David Swann, and Dave Taylor).

8 comments:

Heck I think we can add the 2006 federal election and the 2006 federal Liberal leadership race to that tally as well. But it isn't so much that there is so many elections, but that there is so little... change is a strong word, but the work doesn't always feel reflected in the results.

Ahhh, it's good to see that my 10,000 votes weren't wasted at least we made a (small) blip in the radar screen.

I still believe that strong, qualified and well funded independents might have a chance to break through one day. In particular it might be an option at the provincial level. The traditional parties haven't been able to make much headway, so why not?

What is most interesting is that it looks as thought most parties vote counts were half of the Fed Election, in the provincial election, except for the Liberals. Maybe because in the provincial election, either people think the Libs have more of a chance of seats than in the Fed election or because Lib voters are hardcore and they show up at the polling booth.

There's a fallacy on your part. Whether or not the federal and provincial ridings overlap, you cannot compare federal Libs and provincial Libs -- two different things (and even more so once Dave Taylor has taken the reins of the party later this year).

So, having a Liberal MLA at the provincial level is by no means an indication, not even a remote one, that the same people would also vote Liberal federally.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see more diversity, because that would certainly make the "political game" more fun and more interesting, but I am also a realist.

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Who is Dave Cournoyer? I am a writer, blogger, communicator, occasional media pundit, political watcher, & proud life-long Albertan. I studied Political Science at the University of Alberta and have served as Vice-President (External) of the U of A Students' Union, Chair of the Council of Alberta University Students, and communications coordinator for Alberta's official opposition party.