Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal or not quite ready to hang up your owner's
hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football may be just the thing you
need to end this season right.

I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.

In addition to owning one NFL.com team, I will be taking part
in several money leagues with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal
over the next four weeks will be to help each of you through your
decision-making process as you attempt to boost your bottom line.

NFL.com

For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Official Rules” link
on the NFL.com entry page. However, much of the content immediately
below is included on the “How to Play” page, so what
I provide here should be more than enough to follow along easily.

The object of the game is to pick the players you think will perform
best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs, two WRs,
one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based
on their on-field performance during their game, and if your player's
team wins, you will have the option to carry that player over
to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to
his score.

For example, if you pick Aaron Rodgers in the Wild Card round
and the Packers win, you can carry him over to the Divisional
Round, and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If Green Bay wins again, you can carry Rodgers into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points and, if the
Packers make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round,
since the player was on the team’s roster for two weekly
scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would also apply
as long as that player’s team continues to advance in the
NFL Playoffs.

NFL.com Scoring System

Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K)

Fantasy Points

Rushing or Receiving Touchdown:

6 fantasy points

Passing Touchdown:

4 fantasy points

Field Goal:

3 fantasy points

Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion:

2 fantasy points

Rushing or Receiving:

1 fantasy point per 10 yards

Passing:

1 fantasy point per 25 yards

Extra Point:

1 fantasy point

Defense/Special Teams (D/ST)

Punt Returned Touchdown:

6 fantasy points

Kickoff Returned Touchdown:

6 fantasy points

Fumble Returned Touchdown:

6 fantasy points

Interception Returned Touchdown:

6 fantasy points

Allowing 0 Points:

10 fantasy points

Allowing 2-6 Points:

7 fantasy points

Allowing 7-13 Points:

4 fantasy points

Allowing 14-17 Points:

1 fantasy points

Allowing 18-21 Points:

0 fantasy points

Allowing 22-27 Points:

-1 fantasy points

Allowing 28-34 Points:

-4 fantasy points

Allowing 35-45 Points:

-7 fantasy points

Allowing 46+ Points:

-10 fantasy points

Team Win:

5 fantasy points

Interception:

2 fantasy points

Fumble Recovery:

2 fantasy points

Blocked Punt:

2 fantasy points

Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point:

2 fantasy points

Safety:

2 fantasy points

Sack:

1 fantasy points

Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are worth four points, so passing yards are valued more highly
here than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later;
2) all field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which
means we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50+; 3) this is a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play
threats; and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a
“winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown and
could be worth as much as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this
week and that team ends up winning the Super Bowl.

Given the bonus point modifier mentioned above, I could understand
an owner making the decision to pass on selecting a defense this
week and electing to get twice as many points from a defense such
as the Patriots or Broncos in the Divisional Round. (I’m
not saying I would do that, just suggesting that it is a strategy
to consider.)

I’ll say this once and once only so I don’t have to
repeat myself. This week, it is advantageous to do the following
(in order): 1) select players who we think will play four games;
2) choose players who will likely be in the Super Bowl, even if
they don’t have the best matchups this week or on a bye
and 3) when deciding between an elite option for one game with
a great matchup or a middling option that could wind up in the
Super Bowl – take Calvin Johnson vs. Deion Branch last season,
for example – go for the elite option and reassess the following
week.

One other nugget: at RB and WR, I won’t evaluate every
option for obvious reasons. I’ll simply reveal my final
few choices and take it from there. Now let’s get to my
picks and my rationale for each position:

Letís quickly eliminate Luck, Flacco, Schaub, Dalton, Ponder
and Ryan. One of the two players between Luck and Flacco are guaranteed
two games, but the upside in taking either one is extremely low
since neither one of their teams will likely play more than two
games. The same could really be said about Schaub and Dalton,
although the former could put together a run if Houston simply
turns it on like it did for the playoffs last season after experiencing
a similar late-season fade. Still, non-running signal-callers
from run-based offenses donít thrill me. Ponder is an absolute
no-go for what should be obvious reasons while the Falcons strike
me as the best bet to be a one-and-out team given the likely matchup
in the divisional round.

Four potential games makes Wilson an intriguing
fantasy playoff QB.

This leaves us with Rodgers, Griffin, Wilson, Manning, Brady
and Kaepernick. As popular as a pick as Rodgers might be, the
Packersí defense really hasnít improved over the course of the
season and the argument could easily be made it has regressed
despite a talent infusion, making a two-plus game run for Rodgers
highly unlikely. A fully healthy RG3 could also be a savvy pick,
but he isnít 100% and, sooner or later, a defense is going to
expose that and the fact he has one receiver he trusts. Wilson,
like RG3, is a rookie in a run-based offense Ė and that alone
makes him difficult to trust Ė but Seattle has certainly proven
to be more than just a running team. Manning and Brady are probably
smart picks, but Iíd just as soon not pick either one in this
format because they are both on a bye and Iím not sure I really
sure I want my success in this competition to boil down to whether
or not I pick the winner between a likely Broncos-Patriots matchup
in the AFC Championship. Finally, Kaepernick is appealing for
the same reasons Wilson is, but San Francisco isnít quite the
force it was last year Ė with the defense being my biggest concern
Ė so I suspect the Niners will be no more than a two-game option
as well.

The call:Russell Wilson. I can
just hear it now: a rookie on a running team? This selection has
very little to do with the score differential the Seahawks managed
in December and more to do with how they are playing. And what
exactly can the remaining NFC teams take away from Seattle –offensively
or defensively? The Seahawks are a bad matchup for just about
every remaining NFC team and the most complete team of the bunch.
If I simply get the kind of game from Wilson that he has provided
with regularity over the last half of the season when OC Darrell
Bevell opened up the offense, I really like my chances of getting
four games out of this pick.

The first wave of cuts will include Grant, Green, Morris, Rice,
Ballard, Green-Ellis, Moreno, Woodhead, Turner, Rodgers, Gore
and James. Of this bunch, the hardest cuts were Moreno and Gore,
since I really don’t believe Washington will play more than
one game – making Morris a non-option. Moreno has been workmanlike
since ascending into the starting lineup, but I don’t think
he’s worth a selection here since an explosion (against
the Ravens, Colts or Bengals) next week is unlikely and a big
game in the AFC Championship (likely against the Patriots) is
also doubtful. Gore could conceivably make a three-game run, but
the Niners haven’t had a Super Bowl “feel” to
me for some time now.

Peterson is an obvious qualifier for condition #2 above, even
if his team is a bad bet to play more than one game. The same
could actually be said about Foster, even if his offense is down
as a whole. Lynch is somewhere in between those two players and
actually has the best chance of the bunch to play 3-4 games. Ridley
is a good bet to play 3-4 games, but isn’t so good or consistent
that I feel like I need to lock in his production this week, especially
if the Pats meet a good run defense like the Niners or Seahawks
in the Super Bowl, so he’s out for now (but an option down
the road).

The call:Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. Since I really only expect one team playing this weekend
to make a significant splash (the Seahawks), I feel like I can
only lock in one running back for now. Seattle is my choice to
be this year’s “it” team (like the Packers and
Giants over the past two years) in the sense that it rises from
the back of the pack to put together a 3-4 game run, so I want
to lock Lynch in right now. Peterson rushed for at least 199 yards
and a score in both of his games against the Packers and there
isn’t any reason to believe he can’t put up another
150 and a TD one week later in Lambeau Field. There’s a
good chance I’ll switch over to Ridley in a week or two
– because Minnesota will likely be eliminated – but
I’d just as soon pencil in about 20 points this week and
maybe as many as 35 the following week (if the Vikings upset the
Packers) and ride the game’s best back as long as I can.

The players that will not receive any further consideration are
Cobb, Jennings, James Jones, Nelson, Garcon, Moss, Rice, Tate,
Boldin, Smith, Wayne, Hilton, Avery, Lloyd, White, Julio Jones
and Crabtree. To get right to the point, I don’t expect
the Packers, Colts, Redskins, Ravens or Falcons to play more than
two games. White and Jones have many of the ingredients necessary
to make the cut, but I can’t seem to buy Atlanta as a Super
Bowl team quite yet. Seattle doesn’t pass enough for me
to use Rice or Tate and Crabtree probably isn’t worth the
risk against a likely matchup against the Seahawks’ top-notch
CBs next week.

Of the remaining players, Johnson has emerged as this season’s
“Megatron” in that he is playing at a level right
now that few other players will ever reach, even if the end zone
has eluded him. Green warrants consideration based simply on talent,
but I don’t expect the Bengals to win in Houston. Thomas
is a strong pick based on his likelihood of playing at least two
games and his obvious talent level while Decker is another great
selection for his red-zone connection with Manning. But have we
forgotten how much better the Patriots were than the Broncos when
they met earlier in the season? Welker is always a good option
in these kinds of formats for many reasons, not the least of which
is his team’s likelihood to play in the Super Bowl. Lloyd
deserves consideration given his late-season production.

The call:Andre Johnson and Wes Welker. Similar to the RB position, this is a matter of locking
up the player that I expect to enjoy a huge week (Johnson) and
another player I expect to be around in the Super Bowl (Welker),
since my expected NFC entrant doesn’t possess a dynamic
passing game. Like Peterson above, Johnson will likely need to
have a huge game whether the Texans win or lose. And of the teams
playing this weekend that could give the bye teams some trouble,
Houston could make a Super Bowl run if it simply finds the execution
on offense that has been lacking for about a month.

The first round of cuts this time includes every one of the tight
ends playing this week, Tamme, Dreessen and Davis. Why eliminate
every TE this week? Is there a single good bet for a big game
this week to miss out on a multiplier next week? My answer is
no. As for the Broncos’ tag team, neither play is a solid
bet for sustained production even if they make it to the Super
Bowl. While Davis hasn’t become quite the afterthought some
have pegged him out to be – he did just miss two long scoring
throws in Week 15 – he has become one in the box score,
which is really all that matters to this competition.

Very quickly, we have trimmed the pool of realistic options down
to three players: Hernandez, Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez. The
case can certainly be made for Hernandez, who did yeoman’s
work filling for Gronk and can realistically be projected for
at least 50 yards each week. Gronkowski is a roll of the dice
to be sure after a long layoff, but there is perhaps no better
bet for a touchdown at any position each week. In this format,
Gonzalez is something of a mix between the two New England TEs
in that he scores with relative frequency (like Gronkowski), but
is more of a high-volume pass catcher (like Hernandez). Still,
I don’t like Atlanta to last more than two games, making
him a good – but not great – option.

The call:Rob Gronkowski. As much
as his long absence might concern some of the owners in this competition,
this non-PPR format favors the players who visit the end zone.
No player does that more consistently than Gronkowski, who seems
to be Brady’s first look in the red zone about 70% of the
time. The fact that he plays for the AFC team most likely to make
the Super Bowl in my opinion is just icing on the cake.

Kickers and defense/special teams units require slightly different
thinking, although the goal is still the same – find the
player/unit that will play the most games and live with peaks
and valleys that come along with those positions. As a result,
I’m letting Graham, Brown, Vinatieri, Tucker, Crosby, Walsh,
Forbath, Akers and Bryant sit.

This leaves us with Hauschka, Gostowski and Prater. The last
two kickers play for recognized top-shelf offenses –which
should guarantee me at least a few points in theory – while
Hauschka probably won’t benefit from the world-beaters the
Seahawks are at home since they will likely be spending their
entire playoff stay on the road. He is, however, the one kicker
of the bunch that can play up to four games, which – when
combined with the fact he may kick the most field goals –
makes him an attractive play.

The call:Steve Hauschka. I’ll
agree that Hauschka is far from an exciting option, but I could
easily see every game the Seahawks play from now on being decided
by a field goal. Prater and Gostowski are probably the better
options each week going forward, but when I weigh the possibility
of Seattle making it to the Super Bowl (allowing all Seahawks
to qualify for the 4x multiplier), I like that option better than
selecting the wrong kicker from the likely Patriots-Broncos showdown
in the AFC Championship.

By now, it should now be fairly obvious who I feel is going to
be in the Super Bowl (as much as I’ve tried to keep it a
mystery). For those of you that need to know now, I am projecting
Seahawks vs. Patriots. That’s right – Pete Carroll’s
old team against his current one…I’m not thrilled
about it either.

While I could justify the use of the Texans against the Bengals
– or vice versa – I’m not sold on either enough
to use either one as a plug-and-play against the other. The Colts-Ravens
and Packers-Vikings games could actually be high-scoring, which
will make me shy away from using their defenses. I think the Seahawks
defeat the Redskins and given how complete their defense –
not to mention their team – is, I feel they are the best
option this week, especially given the “team win”
component. For those owners who think the Falcons and Niners have
a good shot of running the table in the NFC, I’d suggest
using their defenses because I don’t like the potential
matchups for the favorite on the AFC side.

The call: Seahawks. If I am correct
in my assessment of Seattle’s chances of making the big
game, the Seahawks are the best option in my opinion because they
are the only “elite” defense that has a chance to
play four games. They match up well with Atlanta and San Francisco
and would be a difficult opponent for either Denver or New England.
When given the option of choosing between a 3x multiplier for
the Broncos and Patriots or a 4x bonus for the Seahawks, I’ll
take the latter.

Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well,
with the key differences being that Fuzzy’s uses PPR scoring
and there are no bonus point modifiers or team-win points. Kickers
get four points for field goals between 40-49 yards and six points
for 60+ while all TDs are worth six points. Your goal is to pick
the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings attached.
Additionally, each owner is asked to select a tiebreaker every
week which will be used to break any ties following the Super
Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams in a league
whereas most other major sites employ a one-man-against-the-world
approach. As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff
leagues will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with
first through ninth place receiving a nice return on investment
for their troubles. Follow this
link for a complete list of the rules.

Since I will be playing with several teams with Fuzzy’s
this season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present
a brief overview on my overall thought process. (There is a chance
I’ll add a fifth team, so don’t be surprised to see
an additional column below next week.) Depending on how strongly
I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the same lineup
in more than one league. But one mistake I learned last season
and vowed not to make again was trying to “make my move”
in Week 1. The time to separate from the pack is later in the
competition, not now.

Fuzzy Portfolio

Team 1

Team 2

Team 3

Team 4

QB

Rodgers

Rodgers

Rodgers

Rodgers

RB

Peterson

Peterson

Peterson

Peterson

RB

Rice

Foster

Rice

Foster

WR

A. Johnson

A. Johnson

A. Johnson

A. Johnson

WR

Wayne

Wayne

Wayne

Wayne

WR

Green

Green

Cobb

Cobb

TE

Daniels

Daniels

Daniels

Rudolph

K

Walsh

Walsh

Graham

Walsh

DST

Seahawks

Seahawks

Texans

Seahawks

Tie

Wilson

Wilson

Wilson

Flacco

Rodgers has completed 73.3% of his passes, averaged 325.5 yards
and 2.5 touchdowns and accumulated a combined 116.0 QB rating in
two games against Minnesota this season. Perhaps he has another
down game (286 yards, one TD) like he did in Dec. 2 home win against
the Vikings this week, but I think there is a much better chance
he comes closer to repeating his numbers from last week (365 passing
yards, four TDs) than those from the first meeting. Even with meager
rushing totals recently, I don’t see a realistic competitor
to Rodgers at the position this week.

Much like Rodgers, Peterson is a no-brainer selection given his
level of play and success in two games against a below-average
Packers defense. Can Houston get it together in time for Foster
to light up Cincinnati like he did last season? Can Morris overcome
a very stingy run defense with a less-than-100% RG3? Can Lynch
keep it up against a tough Redskins’ run defense? Can we
ever trust Rice’s workload? I think the case could be made
for any of the four players to start along with AD, but it is
in situations like this we must start eliminating players based
on the “little things” in order to get the best possible
lineup. Morris doesn’t see much work in the passing game,
so he misses the cut because Seattle should be able to minimize
his impact as a rusher. Lynch is getting to the point to where
he is almost an automatic start as well, but I don’t see
the potential for a huge game from him this week like I do Foster
and Rice. In other words, I’m splitting the difference this
week.

Andre Johnson may have only scored four touchdowns this season,
but over the last half of the season he has caught 70 balls for
1,036 yards. Again, let me repeat…that is over one half
of a season. He catches ball in the short, intermediate and deep
passing game and no Bengal CB can realistically shut him down.
Some owners may be quick to say Wayne is suffering another late-season
fade, but 10+ targets in three of the last four games says otherwise.
I’m not going to hold it against him that he drew Johnathan
Joseph most of the time in two of those contests.

For my third WR selection, I’m left with the Packers’
receivers and the Bengals’ Green. If I’m rolling the
dice on one player from that group, it is probably Cobb since
it is entirely possible he won’t have to deal with slot
CB Antoine Winfield (broken hand). If he doesn’t play, the
Vikings don’t have another CB that can deal with him and,
if Winfield does go, don’t you think that Rodgers will actually
target him knowing Winfield can’t realistically make a play
on the ball? Nelson is a bit high-risk for my liking and Jones
– despite his obvious scoring potential – is too hit-or-miss
for me. Jennings has been back in the fold long enough now to
warrant at least a start on one of my teams, but my WR3 spot is
likely going to come down to a game-day call between Green and
Cobb.

The options at TE are less than inspiring this week, with a less-than-100%
Daniels on the same level as Pitta, Miller, McCoy and Rudolph.
The main reason why both Seahawks’ tight ends warrant consideration
is because Washington was the friendliest opponent vs. opposing
TEs in the NFL this season. Still, the likelihood either one will
catch a lot of passes is slim. On the other hand, the Colts have
been very stingy against opposing TEs, making Pitta a risky selection.
Cincinnati and Green Bay have both been a bit more middle-of-the
pack, but Daniels makes the most sense since the Packers will
be seeing Rudolph for the third time in six weeks. Furthermore,
HC Gary Kubiak has vowed to get Daniels more involved in the postseason
than he has been recently, so I will roll the dice with him in
most – if not all – of my leagues.

I could see any one of about five kickers have a huge week and,
as such, I may opt to use a different kicker for each team. Walsh
and Graham were the highest-scoring kickers of this group during
the regular season and are probably the best bets. Indianapolis
(sixth) and Baltimore (ninth) possess the best “matchups”
based on fantasy points allowed to kickers this season and it
isn’t hard to imagine either Vinatieri or Tucker kicking
three field goals. As of right now, I’ll probably select
Walsh and his big leg on 2-3 of my teams, Graham on another and
either Vinatieri or Tucker on the fifth one (if enough of the
leagues I want to take part in are created).

Houston reminded us last year that teams don’t need to
be “hot” entering the postseason, but its defense
isn’t where it was last season either. With that said, the
Bengals haven’t done a great job of protecting Andy Dalton
lately (although the QB has something to do with that as well),
so the Texans warrant a start this week. The Bengals finished
tied for second in the league in sacks, but Houston is not a good
fantasy matchup for just about any fantasy defense. I’m
avoiding the Ravens, Colts, Vikings and Packers for reasons I’ve
already discussed. As I stated earlier, the Redskins’ secondary
is ripe for the picking and will be facing the most complete offense
they have faced during their seven-game winning streak. This means
the blitz packages and disguises that have served DC Jim Haslett
so well will be minimized this week against a running game that
will exploit any mistake Washington makes. Seattle, on the other
hand, has the team speed to contain the run and shut down the
Redskins’ passing game, so big points could be had if Washington
is forced to play from behind.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.