Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Take Ryan Off Ice

It's too early to say that Chris Johnson's season has officially turned a corner, but there's little doubt it's headed in that direction. CJ2K made a dangerously sharp cut to juke Browns WLB Chris Gocong on an early 25-yard run, and finished Week 4 with 11 gains of five or more yards against a Cleveland defense that entered the game permitting just 3.98 YPC. (Johnson's was 4.39.) Johnson entered the game with just 13 plays of five or more yards on the season. His previous game-high was six five-plus plays. A beat-up, underperforming Pittsburgh defense is next on the slate. In the past two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Joseph Addai, Arian Foster, and Ben Tate to pile up two rushing scores and 261 yards on 49 carries (5.33 average). They'll also be without LE Aaron Smith (foot) and OLB James Harrison (fractured orbital bone). Meanwhile, Johnson gets back FB Ahmard Hall from suspension to replace fill-in Quinn Johnson, whom Pro Football Focus rated as the league's worst lead blocker in the first four games. Still yet to hit a truly long run -- the aforementioned 25-yarder is Johnson's best of the season to date -- CJ2K should confidently be in lineups this week.

Jared Cook turned a short pass into an 80-yard touchdown in Week 4 at Cleveland, but his game was discouraging long term. Despite Kenny Britt's year-ending injury, Cook played a season-low 22 snaps (44%), seeing six targets and securing two. I'd love to see what Cook could do as a full-time player, but Titans OC Chris Palmer refuses to make him one. Cook is averaging an unbearable 3.25 targets per game. .... The Steelers used usual RCB Ike Taylor as a true shadow corner on Andre Johnson last week, and Taylor maintained good coverage until Johnson's game-ending hamstring tear. Look for Nate Washington to get similar treatment from Pittsburgh. The Titans don't have another established receiver threat. ... As expected, Damian Williams started over Lavelle Hawkins in Week 4, although they each finished with four targets. Washington remains the best receiver bet in Tennessee. Williams is a distant second, just ahead of Hawkins. ... Matt Hasselbeck deserves heaps of credit for starting the season in such fine form; he's currently the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback. But Hasselbeck is going to come crashing back to earth in a hurry, and it's a good bet that the fall will begin Sunday against Pittsburgh's No. 1 pass defense. Four of Hasselbeck's next five opponents are top-ten teams against the pass. Sell him high now.

The Steelers' O-Line isn't giving its skill players a prayer, which makes third-and-long situations common and impossible, and prevents Ben Roethlisberger from finding an in-game rhythm. Now battling a sprained left foot in addition to his previously cracked right foot, Big Ben is hard to trust even as bye-week filler against a Tennessee defense stifling passing games. The Titans have surrendered the league's second lowest yards-per-pass attempt average, racking up eight sacks in the last three weeks. LE Derrick Morgan has been an absolute nightmare for offensive lines. I wouldn't recommend starting Roethlisberger, but one stat does suggest he'll pick it up: Big Ben's 2.2 "touchdown rate" (TDs/Pass Attempts) is easily a career low and worst in the NFL. It's also prime for regression. Roethlisberger will finish better than his current No. 25 fantasy quarterback ranking suggests. ... Stay far away from Hines Ward. He played 92.1% of the Week 4 offensive snaps, but was targeted four times. Roethlisberger knows Ward isn't worth throwing to anymore. He had an ugly drop against the Texans, is on pace for 544 yards without a touchdown, and will square off with Titans shutdown slot cornerback Cortland Finnegan for large chunks of this game.

Isaac Redman is the Flavor of the Week 5, and it's hard to beat a 20-25 touch projection when you need a flex starter. Redman obviously lacks homerun speed (4.76 forty), but runs with good pad level and keeps his feet moving, both factors that help behind an embattled O-Line. He also can play on passing downs as a blocker and receiver. The question is whether the Steelers will move the football on Tennessee's top-seven defense, a unit that ranks No. 8 versus the run and is allowing 3.22 YPC. Redman probably won't hit long runs, but the possibility of a goal-line carry or two makes him intriguing. Be sure Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) is inactive Sunday morning, and start Redman as an RB2/flex with more upside than might meet the eye. ... I'm not worried about Finnegan shutting down Mike Wallace because Finnegan lines up at right cornerback on early downs and slot corner in the nickel. He's got a set role. Wallace plays both outside spots and should see more of RCB Alterraun Verner and LCB Jason McCourty. ... Antonio Brown is playing more snaps and getting more targets than Emmanuel Sanders, making the former a better fantasy option. It's just hard to rely on situational players in fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Titans 17

Arizona @ Minnesota

The Chiefs sold out wholeheartedly to stop the Vikings' run game in Week 4, stacking the box with eight defenders and leaving back one single-high safety on the vast majority of snaps. Donovan McNabb just barely capitalized for his best game of the year (202 yards, two touchdowns), which obviously isn't saying much. While Arizona fields a bottom-seven pass defense, McNabb must now worry about an in-game benching after an 0-4 start. He's not a standard-league option and carries risk in two-QB formats. ... After catching a 20-yard pass at Kansas City, Bernard Berrian is "up" to two receptions on 16 targets this year. The Vikings would be better off handing split end duties to Devin Aromashodu, who made an incredible diving grab for a 34-yard score in Week 4. Unfortunately, Aromashodu hasn't topped 16 snaps in any game this season. ... The Cardinals typically present a favorable matchup for tight ends, but Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph are canceling each other out in fantasy terms. They're both on pace for under 400 receiving yards.

Adrian Peterson's yards-per-carry average has dipped from 6.1 in the opener, to 4.8 in Week 2, to 4.6, and a season-low 3.5 last week. An easy-to-defend offense is curtailing his production, even if Peterson remains an elite RB1 versus Arizona. Defenses are swarming the line of scrimmage, daring McNabb, Molasses Michael Jenkins, and Wide Deceiver Berrian to beat them. The good news is "All Day" has operated as a legit every-down back (89.1% snap rate in Week 4), and Minnesota should move the ball on Arizona, setting up scoring chances. The Vikings' personnel decisions and usage are the biggest reasons why Peterson isn't a top-15 fantasy scorer through the first month. ... Percy Harvin played 42-of-64 snaps (65.6%) in Week 4, which isn't nearly enough. Harvin hasn't scored a touchdown on offense, but is averaging 97 total yards per game since Week 1. He's a solid WR3 against the Cardinals' stiff-hipped secondary. ... Jenkins' playing time is in decline (54.7 snap percentage in Week 4), and he's coming off a one-target game.

The Vikings play a ton of two-deep safety coverage, a scheme designed to limit big plays. It's not quite double teaming, however, and Minnesota was exposed for 198 yards and a score on nine catches by Chiefs outside receivers in Week 4 -- most of it via Dwayne Bowe. RCB Cedric Griffin got absolutely torched on Bowe's 52-yard touchdown, even rallying back to catch Bowe after Matt Cassel's underthrown pass, and promptly blowing the tackle. Larry Fitzgerald sees mostly right corners in coverage, so he'll face Griffin often in this game. In four career meetings with the Vikes, Fitz is averaging eight catches for 119 yards. ... Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield primarily covers the slot, so his expected absence due to a painful neck injury isn't much of a matchup boost to Fitzgerald. It does make slot receiver Early Doucet slightly more intriguing as a bye-week WR3. The Vikings' backup nickel back is burnable third-year pro Asher Allen. The problem with starting Doucet is that he's only a 45.9% player, though in Week 4 Doucet did see six targets to starter Andre Roberts' zero. The Cards need to think long and hard about replacing Roberts with Doucet.

I'd love to recommend Kevin Kolb as a sneaky QB1 because Winfield isn't expected to play, and two Cardinals wideouts have very good matchups. I just don't have faith that Kolb will have even a semi-clean pocket. LT Levi Brown is a sieve in pass protection and will face off with Vikings RE Jared Allen, who ranks second in the NFL in sacks (6.5). RT Brandon Keith aggravated a knee injury last week. Perhaps the Cardinals will stick TE Todd Heap on Brown's side to help block Allen? Whatever the case, it's hard to trust Kolb. His pocket presence remains a big issue, and Kolb only ranks 22nd in fantasy quarterback scoring. ... While the Vikings present a very difficult run defense matchup, Beanie Wells has officially entered RB1, every-week starter territory with a 5.44 yards-per-carry average and 20-touchdown pace. The Giants were supposed to be tough against the run last week, too, but Wells bum-rushed them for career highs in carries (27), rushing yards (138) and scores (3). When Wells is healthy, there aren't ten more dangerous backs in football.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Cardinals 20

4:05PM ET Game

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Playing on a short week, the Bucs transition from a home game against Indianapolis' soft front seven to a cross-country away matchup with perhaps the best defense no one is talking about. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell recently described San Francisco's front seven as a top-five unit in the league, and the stats reinforce that notion. The 49ers rank fourth against the run, surrendering just 3.52 yards per carry, and the Eagles showed their respect by calling 53 pass plays versus 13 designed runs in Week 4. The Niners are the only team left that hasn't surrendered a solitary rushing score. It's probably safe to expect a big step back from LeGarrette Blount, who will run into a brick wall more often than not Sunday. ... The Niners have held opposing starting tight ends out of the end zone altogether through four games, and to a 43.5-yard average. Kellen Winslow hasn't shown enough to qualify as a recommended bye-week fantasy play, ranking a miserable 25th in points at his position. ... Arrelious Benn had a long catch-and-run touchdown called back by penalty in Week 4, but that doesn't help fantasy owners much. Nor does his 456-yard pace.

Cover-2 defenses willing to surrender short catches underneath have brought Bucs slot receiver Preston Parker onto the fantasy radar, unfairly. Parker has preyed on soft zones, working against freelancing nickel linebackers over the middle. Unfortunately, the 49ers play man in the secondary and will have a defender actually covering Parker. Parker basically went unguarded at Minnesota in Week 2 (6-98) and versus Indy in Week 4 (5-70-1). I would not start him, and Chris Wesseling says he wouldn't, either. ... Whereas the Niners are fourth against the run, they're 27th in pass defense. The Bucs will likely have many more pass than rushing attempts on Sunday, so consider Josh Freeman a reasonable desperation, bye-week QB1 and must-start in two-QB leagues. ... The 49ers are willing to take chances deep in their back end, evidenced by DeSean Jackson's 171-yard breakout in Week 4. San Francisco also served up nine catches for 143 yards and three TDs to Miles Austin in Week 2. With the Bucs making it more of a priority to get Mike Williams the rock on drag routes and underneath stuff, plug-and-play the sophomore receiver as a WR2/3.

Entering Week 4 without a game over 24 yards, Michael Crabtree showed signs of life by beating Nnamdi Asomugha for a 38-yard catch and breaking a tackle to add seven yards to the play. He was otherwise quiet, hauling in four more passes for 30 yards and failing to find pay dirt. Crabtree is the 49ers' best fantasy receiver again, at least until Braylon Edwards comes back. But his upside is limited as the No. 2 passing-game option in a conservative offense. ... Vernon Davis has really picked it up with an eight-catch, 114-yard Week 3 game followed by 45 yards and a score at Philly. The Bucs have been stout in tight end coverage, but haven't faced one of Davis' caliber. If Aqib Talib takes Crabtree out of this game, Davis could set a new targets season-high. ... Frank Gore awoke from his slumber against a bad Eagles run defense in Week 4. This week's matchup is tougher with an improved, 11th-ranked Bucs unit on the slate, but Gore should resume his full workload after a healthier week of practice. ... Alex Smith has gotten darkhorse love in fantasy circles, but the story hasn't changed other than a renewed emphasis on limiting turnovers. His Week 4 stats were largely attributable to come-from-behind mode after San Francisco got down 26-3 early in the second half. In closer games Smith will be purely a game manager. He's a QB2.

Score Prediction: Bucs 17, 49ers 13

1:00PM ET Games

Oakland @ Houston

Owners that had the cojones to pick Arian Foster in fantasy drafts (and secure Ben Tate as mid-round insurance) when a bad hamstring was torpedoing Foster's stock in late August should pat themselves on the back. A healthy Foster burned an annually run-tough Steelers defense for eight gains of five-plus yards on his first 12 touches in Week 4, unloading with his usual acceleration and speed to go the distance. Foster busted a Troy Polamalu tackle on a second-quarter 18-yard explosion, showing incredible balance to stay upright after being hit behind the line. The icing on the cake was a 42-yard touchdown early in the fourth, with Foster hammering a cutback lane on a play that demonstrated why he's a superior, more dangerous runner than Tate. Understandably, Foster petered out late, managing a two-yard average on his final eight touches in a game that saw him receive 33 -- Foster's most since Week 17 of last season. The damage was already done, and coach Gary Kubiak confirmed this week that the Texans will "lean on" Foster with Andre Johnson (hamstring) out indefinitely. Oakland ranks 29th against the run and dead last in yards-per-rushing attempt allowed (5.91). Foster is the No. 1 running back in fantasy football again.

Even with Tate (groin) and Derrick Ward (ankle) iffy for Week 5, Houston is returning to a ground-and-pound offensive approach that could easily result in 30 more touches for Foster. Owners need to cling tightly to Tate, as Foster may remain susceptible to setbacks on monster workloads. ... Matt Schaub's start-ability outside of two-QB leagues is shaky at best without Andre Johnson. Only Wes Welker and Mike Thomas have commanded a higher percentage of their team's pass targets than Johnson. Ranked 14th in quarterback scoring, Schaub is a fantasy reserve. ... Jacoby Jones will take Andre's place at X receiver, lining up most often against right cornerbacks. This means he should avoid Raiders top CB Stanford Routt for the majority of Sunday's game. Jones will square off primarily with rookie Chimdi Chekwa, giving him an edge on Kevin Walter if you're dying to start a Texans wideout. ... The main beneficiary of Johnson's absence is likely to be Owen Daniels. Daniels has scored in three straight games, is the Texans' most reliable pass catcher left, and will be a solid bet to lead Houston in targets on Sunday. ... Perhaps the Texans will game plan to get TE/FB James Casey re-involved after he followed up his 137-total yard Week 3 "breakout" with a one-catch, eight-yard Week 4. But that's just guesswork.

Darrius Heyward-Bey's 115-yard Week 4 against New England will in all likelihood prove a mirage. The Pats have been torched by the pass, anyway, and the last time DHB had a 100-yard game he went catch-less in his next two. ... Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips confirmed this week that the Texans are using Johnathan Joseph to shadow No. 1 wideouts. “He’s the guy we put on the other team’s best receiver every week,” Phillips said. “(Mike) Wallace is a heck of a receiver. We knew that, so we put Joseph on him.” Wallace was held to 77 scoreless yards in Week 4, 60 Minutes' lowest output in his last nine games. It remains to be seen whom the Texans will deem Oakland's No. 1 wideout. Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford are candidates for Joseph's coverage. ... Houston is a legit top-10 team against the pass, racking up the fifth most sacks in football and allowing bottom-ten numbers in completion rate (55.6), yards per attempt (6.35), and passing scores (5 in 4 games). Ranked 17th in fantasy scoring at his position, Jason Campbell is a low-end QB2. ... Darren McFadden leads the NFL in rushing and all running backs in fantasy points. The Texans have been far more susceptible to the run than the pass, giving up 4.94 yards a carry.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Raiders 23

Philadelphia @ Buffalo

The Eagles' run defense is an unfixable disaster, and long-term injuries to hulking DT Antonio Dixon (triceps) and top DE Trent Cole (calf strain) are nails in the coffin. Philly is small and slow at linebacker, which causes major problems behind DL coach Jim Washburn's Wide-9 scheme. Washburn's approach spreads the front four thin, sacrificing gap control for up-field pass rush. Linebackers must get off and elude blocks on run plays, but the Eagles' are engulfed snap in, snap out. It's not an exaggeration to call Cole and Dixon the team's top two run stuffers, either. Fred Jackson is off to a hot start, and there's every reason to think he'll keep it up against a Philadelphia defense that was dismantled for 254 yards and a touchdown by the 49ers' struggling backfield in Week 4. ... The Bengals rank No. 1 in defense and effectively slowed down the pace of last week's game against Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick finished with year-lows in completion rate (58.8), passing yards (199), and touchdowns (0). Philly's aggressive defense will likely bring heavy pressure against a Bills offense without LT Demetrius Bell (shoulder), but Fitz can counter with a quick release and gunslinger's mentality. The Eagles have allowed a league-high 10 TD passes through four games and NFC-high 106.7 QB rating against. On paper at least, it's still a plus matchup for Fitzpatrick.

David Nelson has been a favorite in this space because he is a physical, every-down slot receiver playing in the NFL's truest spread. His skill set and position are natural fits for Fitzpatrick's popgun arm. Nelson let down owners with a two-catch, 18-yard Week 4, as the Bills tried attacking the edges of Cincinnati's defense as opposed to the middle. Nelson played 53-of-57 snaps (93%), but saw just three targets in Fitzpatrick's worst game of the season. This week, Nelson will match up often with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who's covering the slot for the first time in his career. No one could be blamed for benching Nelson after last Sunday's clunker, but he has a favorable matchup. Rather than take five-step drops and target deep threat Donald Jones downfield, Fitz will need to get rid of the football quickly against an Eagles defense that leads the NFL in sacks (15). Stevie Johnson, at flanker, and Nelson, inside, are Buffalo's top possession receivers. ... The Eagles notoriously struggle against tight ends, but Scott Chandler remains a part-time player whose yardage totals have dropped every week this season. He needs a touchdown to matter.

Michael Vick got his season on track in Week 4, playing all four quarters and racking up 30.1 standard-league fantasy points against San Francisco, which quietly fields one of the NFL's top defenses. Buffalo lacks edge pass rushers to capitalize on LT Jason Peters' (hamstring) absence, as well as outside linebackers with enough speed to keep Vick contained in the pocket. The Bills rank 24th against the pass and dead last in sacks (4). Last week was just the start of Vick's forthcoming tear. ... Seemingly bereft of confidence, Bills RCB Leodis McKelvin has been a turnstile for big passing plays this season. Jeremy Maclin lines up most often against right corners. Clearly 100 percent, Maclin is on pace for a career-high 104 receptions. ... DeSean Jackson got off the snide with a 171-yard explosion in Week 4, and it could've been even bigger had D-Jax not dropped a wide-open, would-be 40-yard bomb in the first quarter. Promisingly, Vick kept throwing to him for the rest of the game, and Jackson's nine targets were his most since Week 1. He should remain a staple in fantasy lineups going forward.

The Bills rank 25th against the run and are surrendering 4.89 yards per carry, which is going to be problematic for them with No. 2 fantasy back LeSean McCoy on the slate. The Eagles resisted running against San Francisco's immovable front seven last week, and McCoy showed his fantasy "floor" with 11.2 standard-league points. Shady's passing-game dominance rescues him even in down weeks, however, and this won't be one of those. I can’t find a statistical category in which McCoy isn’t on pace to shatter his previous career high. ... Brent Celek is so irrelevant that he has fewer receiving yards on the season than his backup, Clay Harbor. ... Backup slot receiver Steve Smith's snap count has now fallen in three straight games, going from 19 plays in Week 2 to 14 in Week 3 and 10 last week. Smith needs at least one Eagles wideout injury to make an impact, and maybe two. ... First-string slot receiver Jason Avant has yet to find the end zone and is on pace for under 700 yards. It should say something that Avant’s 684-yard pace would be his best ever.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Bills 28

Seattle @ NY Giants

Eli Manning has overcome a dreadful August and season opener to go on a tear in his last three games. Favorable matchups have certainly helped, but they continue this week. Eli has completed 66.7% of his passes since Week 1, with eight touchdowns compared to two picks and a sterling 8.58 yards-per-attempt average. Seattle's defense stuffs the run but struggles against the pass, so consider Manning a rock-solid bye-week QB1. ... It was only a matter of time. Finally over a swollen knee, Hakeem Nicks blasted Arizona's secondary for 10 catches, 162 yards, and a TD in Week 4, narrowly missing out on two more scores. Nicks squares off with right cornerbacks most often, so he projects to see quite a bit of Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner in this game. A weekly whipping boy for pass games, Browner served up catch after catch to Julio Jones in Week 4 and will now see an even more talented receiver in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Browner has allowed 24-of-29 passes (82.8%) to be completed against him this year, for 342 yards (11.8 YPA).

OC Kevin Gilbride assured Thursday that Mario Manningham remains a starter, but the Giants may continue to have a quick hook. Mario was yanked from two-wide sets for Victor Cruz in the first half of Week 4, and the pair finished with similar snap counts. Cruz was far more productive, hauling in 6-of-9 targets for 98 yards. Running incorrect routes and failing to secure his first four targets, Manningham caught one pass for 10 yards. Cruz is getting more balls and outplaying Manningham, and it isn't realistic to say there's a noticeable talent gap between the two. They're both dicey WR3s. Cruz wins the Done-For-Me-Lately tiebreaker. ... Yards-per-carry averages allowed by Seattle to opposing feature backs this year: Michael Turner -- 2.69; Alfonso Smith (subbing for Beanie Wells) -- 3.18; Rashard Mendenhall -- 3.47; Frank Gore -- 2.68. They're at 2.96 combined. The Seahawks stifle run games with a wide-bodied, powerful front four, creating a poor matchup for "big back" Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw has a significant edge in elusiveness, and he's also averaging 17.5 touches a game to Jacobs' 10.5. A sprained MCL and missed practice time make this one a no-brainer: Jacobs isn't a Week 5 fantasy option. Bradshaw could get the rock 30 times.

Tarvaris Jackson posted a career-high 319 yards in Week 4, throwing three touchdown passes and finally seeming comfortable in the pocket against a lifeless Falcons pass rush that hasn't registered a solitary sack since Week 1. T-Jack will have a much tougher go of it on the road versus LE Jason Pierre-Paul (18-sack pace) and RE Osi Umenyiora, who sacked Kevin Kolb twice last week and forced a fumble in his 2011 debut. Jackson is a two-QB league option at best. ... For as many defensive back injuries as the G-Men have suffered, you wouldn't think they'd be allowing the fewest touchdown passes in the NFC. New York has made do with Corey Webster and an improving Aaron Ross on the corners, supplemented by one of the league's better pass rushes. This is still a quality defense. The Giants haven't allowed an opposing No. 1 receiver to find the end zone yet this season, holding them to an average of five catches for 58.3 yards. Sidney Rice is easy to double team out of Seattle's offense because there are no alternative threats, particularly with Big Mike Williams (concussion) set to be inactive. Rice is a risky WR3. ... Marshawn Lynch is averaging a career-low 3.07 yards per carry and 13.3 touches per game.

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Seahawks 14

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

After a Monday night loss in Tampa, the Colts are playing on a short week with three key offensive line injuries. RG Ryan Diem is nursing a high ankle sprain, while promising rookie tackles Anthony Castonzo (ankle) and Ben Ijalana (ACL tear) both have significant, long-term maladies. It's a major concern against a Chiefs defense that pressured Donovan McNabb relentlessly in Week 4. OLB Tamba Hali piled up a whopping 13 hurries and two sacks, putting Hali on pace for 16 in the latter category. Dallas Clark will go to work as a blocker again this week. Clark hasn't topped 46 yards in any game yet, and is a bottom-barrel TE2. ... Curtis Painter's Week 4 stat line doesn't look bad, but he was awful against the Bucs. Consistently missing open wideouts, Painter benefited from a Tampa defense that simply didn't tackle. Per Pro Football Focus, Pierre Garcon alone accounted for 128 of Painter's 281 yards after the catch (46%). With a battered offensive line, make Painter "prove it" before plugging him into two-QB league lineups.

With natural guard Jeff Linkenbach and street free agent pickup Michael Toudouze likely to start at left and right tackle, respectively, it's hard to imagine Painter having time to throw. Painter was either pressured or sacked on virtually every snap against the Bucs after Castonzo, and then Ijalana went down. Tampa left Reggie Wayne singled up with RCB E.J. Biggers, but the declining wideout managed just four catches and 59 scoreless yards on eight targets. Wayne remains the Colts' best bet for receiving production, but fantasy leaguers need to capitalize on his next halfway decent game and trade Wayne to a less-informed owner. He isn't turning the corner. ... Garcon had the best run-after-catch performance of his life in Tampa Bay, but most NFL secondaries know how to tackle better than the Bucs'. Particularly in a matchup with Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers (zero catches allowed last week), to start Garcon is to chase points. ... Austin Collie is a part-time player and has yet to hit 30 yards in a game. He was droppable several weeks back. ... Delone Carter continues to make a weak case for more work with a 3.55 YPC average, including 2.91 in his last two games. Joseph Addai's clips are 4.60 and 4.53 over the same spans. Addai is a low-upside RB2, but has plenty of job security.

The Chiefs started Dexter McCluster against the Vikings, but it's not a great sign that his snap percentage fell (from 54.4 to 43.8) in a close game. McCluster still played more than Thomas Jones and Jackie Battle, and remains the only K.C. back worth flex consideration. You just can't ever expect a feature back workload. ... The Chiefs talked up Battle this week, which is much more an indictment of Jones than a hint at fantasy relevance for the career special teamer. Perhaps Battle will punch in a goal-line carry at some point, but he's a plodding back averaging 3.04 yards on 51 career attempts. Battle didn't get drafted because he has no short-area burst. Pick him up to see what happens, but don't expect much. ... Here's some decent news for Dwayne Bowe, who I'd still sell high after back-to-back games with a touchdown: No. 1 receivers are averaging five catches for 88 yards with two scores against Indy this season. ... Steve Breaston's 91 yards in Week 4 helped open up the field for Bowe, but don't take them as a sign of things to come independently. Breaston hasn't found the end zone in his last 14 games and is averaging 33.1 yards in his last eight.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Colts 13

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

Bengals-Jaguars has this week's lowest over-under at a paltry 37 points. Avoid where possible. ... A.J. Green has swapped clunkers with 100-yard games through four weeks, but it's time to give Green's talent its due and lock him into lineups. The payoff is likely to be greater if you use Green every week than try to predict his big games in spot-start fashion. Green leads his team in targets, catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns, and even in a weak passing offense that's a formula for fantasy success. Expectations should probably be checked this week, though, against a Jags Cover 2 squelching big plays. ... Andre Caldwell is getting more targets than Jerome Simpson, despite Simpson's starting job and higher snap percentage. I wouldn't bother owning either. ... The Jaguars have a solid all-around defense, ranking No. 14 against the pass and 16 versus the run. Cedric Benson is averaging over 20 touches a game, keeping him afloat as a respectable RB2. Andy Dalton is an incredibly inconsistent rookie with a tough matchup on the road. ... The fantasy start of the week on Cincinnati's side may be Jermaine Gresham. The Jaguars' zone defense is extremely susceptible over the middle, and opposing tight ends are averaging an eye-popping 10 catches for 110 yards with three touchdowns against them in the past three weeks.

After a relatively solid first half in his second career start (12-of-24 for 165 yards, one touchdown), Blaine Gabbert imploded in the final two quarters of last week's loss to the Saints. Constantly missing open receivers, Gabbert closed out 4-of-18 for a pathetic 31 yards with an interception. It's scary to think how poorly he might perform against a Bengals team that leads the league in defense and ranks No. 3 against the pass, coming off its near-total shutdown of a previously red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bengals' defense is a recommended streamer play. ... Mike Thomas is the lone Jags pass catcher worth considering in fantasy leagues, as his 19 targets in Gabbert's two starts easily lead the team. (Next closest is Jason Hill with 12, and Hill has caught three for 39 yards.) Thomas is a weak WR3, but he's at least an option. ... Marcedes Lewis finally had more pass routes than blocking plays in Week 4, but it translated to 38 yards on three catches. Telling is that those were both season-highs for Lewis. ... Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 21 touches a game and ranks 12th in fantasy running back scoring. Jones-Drew has a very tough matchup with a Bengals defense yielding a league-low 3.10 yards per carry, but it's hard to imagine ever sitting MJD. Jones-Drew's own yards-per-rushing attempt average has risen in four consecutive weeks.

Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Jaguars 10

New Orleans @ Carolina

Among Week 5 over-unders, only the Sunday Nighter has more projected scoring than Saints-Panthers. Start 'em. ... Drew Brees is the No. 3 fantasy QB through four games, behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Carolina is surrendering an NFC-high 8.55 yards per pass attempt. ... Jimmy Graham has seven touchdowns in his last seven games, and his yardage total has jumped every week this year. No NFL tight end has more 20-plus yard plays. Start him every chance you get. ... Returning from a collarbone fracture, Marques Colston played just 20-of-81 snaps (24.7%) against the Jaguars in Week 4. With that rate certain to rise, the rest of the Saints' receivers will become less predictable in fantasy. ... Lance Moore's playing time was most affected by Colston's return. A 56.9% player with Colston out in Week 3, Moore dipped to 40.7% at Jacksonville as he played only on passing downs. That doesn't make him waiver wire fodder, but Moore is going to be inconsistent. ... Devery Henderson is back to WR5/6 status after a one-target, no-catch Week 4 game. ... Robert Meachem (76.5 snap percentage, 6 targets, 4 catches, 59 yards) can maintain WR3 value despite Colston's return. Meachem's been a borderline every-down player all season.

Darren Sproles is averaging just 10.25 touches per game, but it's notable when he's on pace for 1,432 total yards and 12 TDs. Coach Sean Payton game plans for Sproles to be in space virtually every time he handles the football. He's a strong flex play, particularly in PPR. ... Mark Ingram still leads the Saints in red-zone touches (14), but Sproles had three last week to bring his season total to nine, and Pierre Thomas got two, including a carry at the Jags' two-yard line. Thomas now has four on the year. It's worth noting that Ingram -- not Sproles or Thomas -- was in the game during FB Jed Collins' surprise one-yard score on New Orleans' opening Week 4 possession. Ingram motioned out of the backfield, lining up in the slot and watching as Collins punched it in. (Collins played extensively only because No. 2 TE David Thomas was inactive with a concussion.) Ingram remains Payton's clock-killing back of choice, and the first-rounder has led the backfield in touches every game this season. Despite Ingram's slow start, it's hard to imagine benching him against a Panthers defense that ranks 31st versus the run and is permitting 5.18 yards per carry.

Continuing to defy logic, Cam Newton scored 32.5 standard-league fantasy points at Soldier Field in Week 4 and is locked in as a top-ten QB1. Matchups go out the window when he's averaging 34 rushing yards and a rushing score per game, on top of the third most passing yards in football. Newton is Carolina's goal-line back, having scored all four of his TDs inside opposing five-yard lines. Neither Jonathan Stewart nor DeAngelo Williams has found the end zone. ... It's early to call Stewart the Panthers' designated passing-down back when he and Williams have combined for just one third-down touch in the past two weeks. But there's little doubt that Newton is more comfortable throwing to Stewart. J-Stew has 15 catches for 159 yards (10.6 average) in the last three games, compared to D-Will's 40 yards on six receptions (6.7). Stewart is averaging 4.56 yards per carry to Williams' 3.86. The two rotate evenly and don't get scoring chances. Stewart is the preferred fantasy "hold" because he's such a better player.

Steve Smith tore the lid off the Bears' Cover 2 and currently ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (530, 132.5 per-game average), first in yards per reception (22.1), and first in 20-plus yard catches (12). Don't bet on the Saints' 19th-ranked pass defense stopping him. ... I love starting tight ends against the Saints because DC Gregg Williams' scheme puts linebackers and coverage liability SS Roman Harper on them. In the last two weeks, New Orleans has allowed Jaguars and Texans tight ends to combine for 14 receptions, 254 yards, and three touchdowns. Jeremy Shockey (concussion) appears unlikely to play and may be strictly a blocker if he does because of a broken finger. Greg Olsen is shaping up as a top-five tight end start. He's currently eighth at the position in fantasy points. ... Brandon LaFell played a season-best 55.7 snap percentage in Week 4, but saw just six targets compared to starter Legedu Naanee's 11. Both had four scoreless catches. LaFell needs to formally pass Naanee on the depth chart to be a reliable fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Saints 27

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

It's too early to say that Chris Johnson's season has officially turned a corner, but there's little doubt it's headed in that direction. CJ2K made a dangerously sharp cut to juke Browns WLB Chris Gocong on an early 25-yard run, and finished Week 4 with 11 gains of five or more yards against a Cleveland defense that entered the game permitting just 3.98 YPC. (Johnson's was 4.39.) Johnson entered the game with just 13 plays of five or more yards on the season. His previous game-high was six five-plus plays. A beat-up, underperforming Pittsburgh defense is next on the slate. In the past two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Joseph Addai, Arian Foster, and Ben Tate to pile up two rushing scores and 261 yards on 49 carries (5.33 average). They'll also be without LE Aaron Smith (foot) and OLB James Harrison (fractured orbital bone). Meanwhile, Johnson gets back FB Ahmard Hall from suspension to replace fill-in Quinn Johnson, whom Pro Football Focus rated as the league's worst lead blocker in the first four games. Still yet to hit a truly long run -- the aforementioned 25-yarder is Johnson's best of the season to date -- CJ2K should confidently be in lineups this week.

Jared Cook turned a short pass into an 80-yard touchdown in Week 4 at Cleveland, but his game was discouraging long term. Despite Kenny Britt's year-ending injury, Cook played a season-low 22 snaps (44%), seeing six targets and securing two. I'd love to see what Cook could do as a full-time player, but Titans OC Chris Palmer refuses to make him one. Cook is averaging an unbearable 3.25 targets per game. .... The Steelers used usual RCB Ike Taylor as a true shadow corner on Andre Johnson last week, and Taylor maintained good coverage until Johnson's game-ending hamstring tear. Look for Nate Washington to get similar treatment from Pittsburgh. The Titans don't have another established receiver threat. ... As expected, Damian Williams started over Lavelle Hawkins in Week 4, although they each finished with four targets. Washington remains the best receiver bet in Tennessee. Williams is a distant second, just ahead of Hawkins. ... Matt Hasselbeck deserves heaps of credit for starting the season in such fine form; he's currently the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback. But Hasselbeck is going to come crashing back to earth in a hurry, and it's a good bet that the fall will begin Sunday against Pittsburgh's No. 1 pass defense. Four of Hasselbeck's next five opponents are top-ten teams against the pass. Sell him high now.

The Steelers' O-Line isn't giving its skill players a prayer, which makes third-and-long situations common and impossible, and prevents Ben Roethlisberger from finding an in-game rhythm. Now battling a sprained left foot in addition to his previously cracked right foot, Big Ben is hard to trust even as bye-week filler against a Tennessee defense stifling passing games. The Titans have surrendered the league's second lowest yards-per-pass attempt average, racking up eight sacks in the last three weeks. LE Derrick Morgan has been an absolute nightmare for offensive lines. I wouldn't recommend starting Roethlisberger, but one stat does suggest he'll pick it up: Big Ben's 2.2 "touchdown rate" (TDs/Pass Attempts) is easily a career low and worst in the NFL. It's also prime for regression. Roethlisberger will finish better than his current No. 25 fantasy quarterback ranking suggests. ... Stay far away from Hines Ward. He played 92.1% of the Week 4 offensive snaps, but was targeted four times. Roethlisberger knows Ward isn't worth throwing to anymore. He had an ugly drop against the Texans, is on pace for 544 yards without a touchdown, and will square off with Titans shutdown slot cornerback Cortland Finnegan for large chunks of this game.

Isaac Redman is the Flavor of the Week 5, and it's hard to beat a 20-25 touch projection when you need a flex starter. Redman obviously lacks homerun speed (4.76 forty), but runs with good pad level and keeps his feet moving, both factors that help behind an embattled O-Line. He also can play on passing downs as a blocker and receiver. The question is whether the Steelers will move the football on Tennessee's top-seven defense, a unit that ranks No. 8 versus the run and is allowing 3.22 YPC. Redman probably won't hit long runs, but the possibility of a goal-line carry or two makes him intriguing. Be sure Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) is inactive Sunday morning, and start Redman as an RB2/flex with more upside than might meet the eye. ... I'm not worried about Finnegan shutting down Mike Wallace because Finnegan lines up at right cornerback on early downs and slot corner in the nickel. He's got a set role. Wallace plays both outside spots and should see more of RCB Alterraun Verner and LCB Jason McCourty. ... Antonio Brown is playing more snaps and getting more targets than Emmanuel Sanders, making the former a better fantasy option. It's just hard to rely on situational players in fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Titans 17

Arizona @ Minnesota

The Chiefs sold out wholeheartedly to stop the Vikings' run game in Week 4, stacking the box with eight defenders and leaving back one single-high safety on the vast majority of snaps. Donovan McNabb just barely capitalized for his best game of the year (202 yards, two touchdowns), which obviously isn't saying much. While Arizona fields a bottom-seven pass defense, McNabb must now worry about an in-game benching after an 0-4 start. He's not a standard-league option and carries risk in two-QB formats. ... After catching a 20-yard pass at Kansas City, Bernard Berrian is "up" to two receptions on 16 targets this year. The Vikings would be better off handing split end duties to Devin Aromashodu, who made an incredible diving grab for a 34-yard score in Week 4. Unfortunately, Aromashodu hasn't topped 16 snaps in any game this season. ... The Cardinals typically present a favorable matchup for tight ends, but Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph are canceling each other out in fantasy terms. They're both on pace for under 400 receiving yards.

Adrian Peterson's yards-per-carry average has dipped from 6.1 in the opener, to 4.8 in Week 2, to 4.6, and a season-low 3.5 last week. An easy-to-defend offense is curtailing his production, even if Peterson remains an elite RB1 versus Arizona. Defenses are swarming the line of scrimmage, daring McNabb, Molasses Michael Jenkins, and Wide Deceiver Berrian to beat them. The good news is "All Day" has operated as a legit every-down back (89.1% snap rate in Week 4), and Minnesota should move the ball on Arizona, setting up scoring chances. The Vikings' personnel decisions and usage are the biggest reasons why Peterson isn't a top-15 fantasy scorer through the first month. ... Percy Harvin played 42-of-64 snaps (65.6%) in Week 4, which isn't nearly enough. Harvin hasn't scored a touchdown on offense, but is averaging 97 total yards per game since Week 1. He's a solid WR3 against the Cardinals' stiff-hipped secondary. ... Jenkins' playing time is in decline (54.7 snap percentage in Week 4), and he's coming off a one-target game.

The Vikings play a ton of two-deep safety coverage, a scheme designed to limit big plays. It's not quite double teaming, however, and Minnesota was exposed for 198 yards and a score on nine catches by Chiefs outside receivers in Week 4 -- most of it via Dwayne Bowe. RCB Cedric Griffin got absolutely torched on Bowe's 52-yard touchdown, even rallying back to catch Bowe after Matt Cassel's underthrown pass, and promptly blowing the tackle. Larry Fitzgerald sees mostly right corners in coverage, so he'll face Griffin often in this game. In four career meetings with the Vikes, Fitz is averaging eight catches for 119 yards. ... Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield primarily covers the slot, so his expected absence due to a painful neck injury isn't much of a matchup boost to Fitzgerald. It does make slot receiver Early Doucet slightly more intriguing as a bye-week WR3. The Vikings' backup nickel back is burnable third-year pro Asher Allen. The problem with starting Doucet is that he's only a 45.9% player, though in Week 4 Doucet did see six targets to starter Andre Roberts' zero. The Cards need to think long and hard about replacing Roberts with Doucet.

I'd love to recommend Kevin Kolb as a sneaky QB1 because Winfield isn't expected to play, and two Cardinals wideouts have very good matchups. I just don't have faith that Kolb will have even a semi-clean pocket. LT Levi Brown is a sieve in pass protection and will face off with Vikings RE Jared Allen, who ranks second in the NFL in sacks (6.5). RT Brandon Keith aggravated a knee injury last week. Perhaps the Cardinals will stick TE Todd Heap on Brown's side to help block Allen? Whatever the case, it's hard to trust Kolb. His pocket presence remains a big issue, and Kolb only ranks 22nd in fantasy quarterback scoring. ... While the Vikings present a very difficult run defense matchup, Beanie Wells has officially entered RB1, every-week starter territory with a 5.44 yards-per-carry average and 20-touchdown pace. The Giants were supposed to be tough against the run last week, too, but Wells bum-rushed them for career highs in carries (27), rushing yards (138) and scores (3). When Wells is healthy, there aren't ten more dangerous backs in football.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Cardinals 20

4:05PM ET Game

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Playing on a short week, the Bucs transition from a home game against Indianapolis' soft front seven to a cross-country away matchup with perhaps the best defense no one is talking about. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell recently described San Francisco's front seven as a top-five unit in the league, and the stats reinforce that notion. The 49ers rank fourth against the run, surrendering just 3.52 yards per carry, and the Eagles showed their respect by calling 53 pass plays versus 13 designed runs in Week 4. The Niners are the only team left that hasn't surrendered a solitary rushing score. It's probably safe to expect a big step back from LeGarrette Blount, who will run into a brick wall more often than not Sunday. ... The Niners have held opposing starting tight ends out of the end zone altogether through four games, and to a 43.5-yard average. Kellen Winslow hasn't shown enough to qualify as a recommended bye-week fantasy play, ranking a miserable 25th in points at his position. ... Arrelious Benn had a long catch-and-run touchdown called back by penalty in Week 4, but that doesn't help fantasy owners much. Nor does his 456-yard pace.

Cover-2 defenses willing to surrender short catches underneath have brought Bucs slot receiver Preston Parker onto the fantasy radar, unfairly. Parker has preyed on soft zones, working against freelancing nickel linebackers over the middle. Unfortunately, the 49ers play man in the secondary and will have a defender actually covering Parker. Parker basically went unguarded at Minnesota in Week 2 (6-98) and versus Indy in Week 4 (5-70-1). I would not start him, and Chris Wesseling says he wouldn't, either. ... Whereas the Niners are fourth against the run, they're 27th in pass defense. The Bucs will likely have many more pass than rushing attempts on Sunday, so consider Josh Freeman a reasonable desperation, bye-week QB1 and must-start in two-QB leagues. ... The 49ers are willing to take chances deep in their back end, evidenced by DeSean Jackson's 171-yard breakout in Week 4. San Francisco also served up nine catches for 143 yards and three TDs to Miles Austin in Week 2. With the Bucs making it more of a priority to get Mike Williams the rock on drag routes and underneath stuff, plug-and-play the sophomore receiver as a WR2/3.

Entering Week 4 without a game over 24 yards, Michael Crabtree showed signs of life by beating Nnamdi Asomugha for a 38-yard catch and breaking a tackle to add seven yards to the play. He was otherwise quiet, hauling in four more passes for 30 yards and failing to find pay dirt. Crabtree is the 49ers' best fantasy receiver again, at least until Braylon Edwards comes back. But his upside is limited as the No. 2 passing-game option in a conservative offense. ... Vernon Davis has really picked it up with an eight-catch, 114-yard Week 3 game followed by 45 yards and a score at Philly. The Bucs have been stout in tight end coverage, but haven't faced one of Davis' caliber. If Aqib Talib takes Crabtree out of this game, Davis could set a new targets season-high. ... Frank Gore awoke from his slumber against a bad Eagles run defense in Week 4. This week's matchup is tougher with an improved, 11th-ranked Bucs unit on the slate, but Gore should resume his full workload after a healthier week of practice. ... Alex Smith has gotten darkhorse love in fantasy circles, but the story hasn't changed other than a renewed emphasis on limiting turnovers. His Week 4 stats were largely attributable to come-from-behind mode after San Francisco got down 26-3 early in the second half. In closer games Smith will be purely a game manager. He's a QB2.

Score Prediction: Bucs 17, 49ers 13

4:15PM ET Games

NY Jets @ New England

The Patriots' backfield is likely to have success against the softest Jets defense we've seen since Eric Mangini, particularly after it lost OLB Bryan Thomas to an Achilles' tear. Opposing backs have exposed New York for four TDs and a 186-total yard average over the past three weeks, including 4.7 YPC. So the question really isn't if BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Stevan Ridley will be effective. It's whether one of them will get the rock enough to truly capitalize. Game watchers by now know that Ridley is the Patriots' most talented, versatile back, while Green-Ellis is a pedestrian runner who moves the pile but doesn't outrun or make defenders miss, and offers zip in the passing game. Ridley's workload and snaps played have increased every week this season, and his yards-per-touch average (7.95) dwarfs those of "Law Firm" (4.06) and Danny Woodhead (4.88). Especially if you're in a bye-week crunch, Ridley needs to be in your fantasy lineup. Green-Ellis is shaping up as a dicey, if still reasonable flex play. Coming off an injured left ankle, Woodhead isn't an option.

The Jets are expected to assign Darrelle Revis to Wes Welker situationally, perhaps on all third downs. Keep in mind that Welker rolled through the Jets with a healthy Revis for 80 yards and a touchdown on seven catches early last December. The potential return of Aaron Hernandez (knee) will make Welker and all of the Patriots' receivers that much more difficult to defend. You can't sit the No. 1 fantasy wideout, regardless of matchup. ... Hernandez owners should be excited about his improving health, but he needs to prove he's a regular player in the offense again before being thought of as a bankable fantasy play. ... Rob Gronkowski's 2010 numbers against the Jets don't look great, though he did have 65 yards on four catches against them in the playoffs. Gronkowski leads the NFL in tight end scoring and can only be "stopped" by blocking. The Bryan Thomas injury should translate to a few more pass routes for Gronk. ... In his last two games against the Jets, Tom Brady has a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio and at least 299 passing yards. He's good to go every week. ... Deion Branch scored a touchdown in both of his 2010 games against Rex Ryan's defense, but it's obviously not crazy to sit him with one catch for four yards in his last two games. Branch is probably just as good a bet to see Revis in coverage as Welker.

Ryan's rekindling of the "ground and pound" approach seems swell in theory, but it's difficult to envision how it's going to work. Even with All-Pro C Nick Mangold (ankle) back, New York's O-Line isn't the mauling unit it once was. RT Wayne Hunter has been a massive downgrade from Damien Woody, LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson has always been more agile pass blocker than road-grader, and RG Brandon Moore seems to have lost his fastball after offseason hip surgery. The Jets rank 30th in yards-per-rushing attempt (3.09), and supposed feature back Shonn Greene is 50th in YPC (3.08) among players with at least 15 carries. The per-play ineffectiveness suggests the Jets are kidding themselves with the new philosophy, which changed only because the passing game didn't work, either. Be cautious about thinking Greene is suddenly a strong fantasy option. The Jets are well aware of Greene's struggles, and have spoken openly of increasing Joe McKnight's role. 32-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson (2.95 YPC) certainly won't save the offense.

The decrease in sheer attempts will quickly dump Mark Sanchez into clear-cut QB2 territory, particularly if his 6.8 YPA doesn't improve. At that rate, Sanchez will fall from 300-yard candidate on 37 attempts per game to a 170-200 yard quarterback on the 25-29 passes Ryan would surely prefer. Despite a favorable matchup with New England's 32nd-ranked pass defense, Sanchez is a two-QB league option only. The Jets want to take the air out of the ball. ... It's certainly fair to be frustrated with Santonio Holmes, and at first glance the revamped offense would seem to make him even less desirable. But defenses will begin dropping an eighth defender into the box if the Jets stress running the ball down by down. It should lead to a more efficient passing game, even if it doesn't light up secondaries. For now, it's reasonable to consider Holmes a risky WR3 as opposed to the WR2 you thought you drafted. It's been said before in this space, but Holmes does have a plus matchup. He'll face off mostly with Patriots LCB Devin McCourty, who according to Pro Football Focus is on pace to surrender 1,592 passing yards. No NFL cornerback allowed more than 1,000 from 2008-2010. ... Dustin Keller gave New England fits in Week 2 last season (7-115-1), but they shut him down in Week 13 (3-27) and the playoffs (3-15). Keller is back to risky TE1. ... Plaxico Burress is on pace for 40 catches. He's still only a TD-heavy league option.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 17

San Diego @ Denver

The Chargers are dealing with numerous injuries in their pass-catching corps, including Antonio Gates' multi-week foot ailment and Vincent Jackson's hamstring and abdominal injuries. It makes plenty of sense, then, that coach Norv Turner would lean heavily on his run game and increase Ryan Mathews' workload. "He got what 16 carries, 18 carries (last week)?" Turner said in his post-practice interview Wednesday. "If we can get him 24, 25 carries, it's gonna help him." Mathews has certainly earned it, ranking fourth in the league in total yardage and averaging 4.72 yards per carry to Mike Tolbert's 2.61. If you didn't trade for Mathews prior to Week 3, do it while his market value is still reasonable. Currently the No. 6 fantasy running back, Mathews will easily secure a top-five finish if Turner follows through on his plan. ... Tolbert hasn't hit double-digit touches or exceeded 2.9 YPC since the opener. While spotty red-zone touchdowns should keep him afloat, Tolbert is just a risky flex option even in bye-week crunches. He's also fumbled twice.

Champ Bailey (hamstring) practiced fully all week, targeting this division game for his return. V-Jax hasn't topped 54 yards in four straight meetings with Denver, and Bailey's coverage has a lot to do with it. We'll have more info on Jackson by Friday evening, but for now he's shaping up as a game-time decision. Because this game has a late start, it's reasonable to err on the side of caution if you don't know Jackson's status on Sunday morning. ... Gates won't play, giving Randy McMichael the start. McMike caught three passes for 25 yards on six targets last week and will hurt you if he doesn't score. ... V-Jax owners would be smart to pick up Malcom Floyd if he's on the waiver wire. Healthy again, Floyd practiced without limitations this week and could be a sneaky fall-back WR3 as the Chargers' No. 1 passing game option if Jackson is inactive. ... I'd rather play Cam Newton, for instance, than Philip Rivers this week, primarily because San Diego projects to lean heavily on the run. It's still hard to forget Rivers' four-TD Week 11 effort against Denver last year. Bailey played; Jackson and Gates didn't. ... Patrick Crayton and rookie Vincent Brown are the receivers behind V-Jax and Floyd on the depth chart. Neither has exceeded 47 yards in a week this year, and it's just a guessing game as to whom would be more productive.

Willis McGahee earned John Fox's nomination as the Broncos' feature back with a 15-carry, 103-yard burst against Green Bay's then-No. 1 run defense. San Diego is 12th against the run and yields 4.06 YPC. The matchup isn't prohibitive, so McGahee owners can comfortably use the 30-year-old back as a low-end RB2/flex. Just don't be surprised when he doesn't break four yards a carry in a game the rest of the way. ... A year after leading the NFL in pass defense, the Chargers are once again top-five and get LCB Quentin Jammer back from injury this week. Jammer will line up across from possession threat Eric Decker most of the day, while Brandon Lloyd gets Antoine Cason. The Denver wideouts don't change sides much, and Decker will see impressive rookie Marcus Gilchrist when he kicks to the slot. So far at least, Cason has been San Diego's weakest corner. ... A similar-looking Chargers secondary (with not as much pass rush as they've benefited from this year) held Kyle Orton to 217 yards and one touchdown last December. This isn't a good matchup for him. ... Knowshon Moreno has fallen well behind McGahee, playing only 16-of-59 snaps (27.1%) at Green Bay. Moreno touched the ball three times, compared to McGahee's 17.

Score Prediction: Chargers 28, Broncos 20

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Packers-Falcons has this week's highest over-under at a whopping 53 points. Fire up your guys. ... Aaron Rodgers leapfrogged his way to the No. 1 spot among fantasy QBs with a six-touchdown effort against Denver in Week 4. Atlanta's 24th-ranked pass defense is fresh off allowing three scores and a career-high 319 yards to Tarvaris Jackson. ... Jennings squares off with RCB Dunta Robinson when the Packers play the Falcons, so it shouldn't surprise that Jennings dropped over 100 yards in each of his two 2010 games against Atlanta. Robinson is severely overrated. ... It's hard to imagine sitting Jordy Nelson in a shootout like this, but he does have the tougher matchup among Green Bay wideouts. Nelson will get LCB Brent Grimes for the majority of Sunday night. ... The Falcons have seen Jermichael Finley on tape, but they've never actually played against him. He's a lot bigger in real life than he looks in the film room. Finley is currently the No. 5 tight end in fantasy football. ... Donald Driver is expected to play through a knee injury, but has been totally ineffective. He'll probably continue to share slot receiver playing time with rookie Randall Cobb.

On the ground, it's more of a wait-and-see week for the Packers' backfield. Ryan Grant's return muddles things, reverting the committee to an unpredictable, hot-hand situation. The Falcons rank tenth against the run, although that isn't fully indicative of their stoutness. They've played the last several games without SLB Stephen Nicholas (calf) and DT Jonathan Babineaux (knee), and both of the impact defenders will return this week. As Atlanta allowed just 3.60 YPC even without Nicholas and Babs, Grant and Starks would ideally be left on fantasy benches. Starks is coming off an 18-touch, 101-yard game and is the pick if you're deciding between the two. ... James Jones caught his first touchdown of the season in Week 4, though it occurred essentially in garbage time. The Packers were up by 18 points. Jones still only played 54.2% of the snaps.

In his last seven home games, Matt Ryan has led Atlanta to a 6-1 record with a 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 66.5 completion rate. The Packers rank last in the NFC in pass defense, have lost FS Nick Collins (neck) for the season, and are clearly scuffling to replace their "centerfield" safety. Only New England has allowed more completions of 20-plus yards. Ryan owners may be displeased with his somewhat spotty start, but he's going to explode soon, quite possibly this week. Ryan is currently the No. 10 fantasy quarterback. He has 290-plus passing yards in 3-of-4 games. ... Ryan might be the best buy-low candidate in fantasy football, but Julio Jones has already arrived. Coming off back-to-back games of 115 or more yards, Jones is out-producing Roddy White and hasn't even found the end zone yet. Jones is a must-start on Sunday night as he prepares to square off with Packers RCB Tramon Williams, who's been shaky this season. Williams gave up a Week 1 touchdown to Robert Meachem and was consistently beaten deep by Brandon Lloyd in Week 4. Lloyd finished with season highs in receptions (8) and yards (136).

White is the No. 24 fantasy receiver through four games, way down from yesteryear's top-three finish. The biggest drop-off has been White's scoring; he only has one touchdown after reaching pay dirt ten times last season. Still on pace for over 100 catches and 1,200 yards, White has been a consistent scorer, and TDs often follow naturally. Tony Gonzalez has hogged touchdowns, but isn't going to hit the 20 for which he's on pace. ... In fairness to Gonzo, he too is an absolute must-start versus Green Bay. A tight end has scored in 3-of-4 games against the Collins-less Packers, who've played their last two against tight end-unfriendly offenses of Chicago and Denver. Gonzo is third in fantasy scoring at his position, behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. ... The Packers' run defense is far better than it showed against Willis McGahee last week. Still second in the league against the run, Green Bay forces its opponents to air it out; no team has fewer rushing attempts against. Michael Turner is plodding along at 2.43 YPC in his last two games. It's just difficult to sit workhorse backs in projected shootouts. Turner is averaging 18.5 touches a week.

Score Prediction: Packers 37, Falcons 31

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ Detroit

Is the Bears' defense overrated?. Since what's shaping up as a fluky Week 1 domination of the Falcons, Chicago has been touched up for an average of 314 passing yards per week, seven touchdowns and two interceptions, while coming up with only three sacks. Opposing backs are averaging 4.66 yards per carry. There's nothing intimidating about those numbers. Use your Lions skill players. ... In Calvin Johnson's last five meetings with the Bears, he's scored three TDs and averaged six catches for 87 yards. At age 26, Megatron is a better receiver than he's ever been. Look for Johnson to dog-walk diminutive LCB Tim Jennings and aging RCB Charles Tillman all over the field Monday night. ... The last time Matthew Stafford made it through a full game against the Bears was during his rookie year, and he racked up 296 passing yards. Like Johnson, Stafford is a way better player now. He's the No. 4 overall fantasy quarterback, and appears incapable of being stopped. ... Lions slot receiver Nate Burleson has four catches for 28 scoreless yards in his last two games, combined. I'd want to see Burleson pick it up before using him in fantasy football.

Jahvid Best is a top-nine PPR back, but much more an RB2 in standard leagues. Whereas his 3.2 YPC is identical to last year's, Best ranks fifth in the NFL in receptions among tailbacks, and sixth in receiving yards. ... The Lions may have to explore using Brandon Pettigrew as a "help" blocker for Jeff Backus soon, because Detroit's blind-side tackle is getting ransacked in protection. While Backus was lucky Stafford escaped countless Week 4 left tackle pressures to take no sacks, Backus was just as ineffective as the previous game, when Jared Allen pinned three quarterback takedowns on him. Backus was facing DeMarcus Ware, of course, but he'll have his hands full again with Julius Peppers on Monday night. To be sure, the stats say Pettigrew is in line for a productive day. Chicago has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in four games, and a 6.5-catch, 82-yard weekly average. Just don't be surprised when Pettigrew slows down and starts blocking more. He's on pace for career highs in receptions (88) and yards (960). ... The Bears defend designated deep threats well because of their scheme. It isn't good news for Titus Young.

Playing on the road against the aggressive Lions, the Bears will likely try to keep Stafford off the field with heavy doses of Matt Forte. Reintroducing a lead blocker to their rushing attack (FB Tyler Clutts), the Bears skewed toward the run in Week 4, racking up 31 rushing attempts to 17 passes. The revised game plan worked, as Matt Forte averaged 8.2 yards per carry en route to a career-high 205 yards. The Lions rank 20th against the run, allowing 4.76 YPC. ... Jay Cutler is barely on the QB2 radar coming off his fewest pass attempts in a full game since 2009. Detroit is also significantly better in pass than run defense. Cutler is a lowly 24th in fantasy quarterback scoring, so here's to hoping you didn't consider him anyway. The Bears have lost faith in their passing game. ... Dane Sanzenbacher and Johnny Knox are the only Chicago wideouts worth Week 5 consideration, and neither is an inviting option. Sanzenbacher was on the field for just 13 snaps last week. Knox would need Chicago to fall behind early and start winging it to be worthwhile.