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..SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WILL SAG SWD TOTHE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYERDEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPEIN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTIVEINITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..NRN MS THIS MORNING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN A SMALL AREA OF NW MS THISMORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVINGEWD FROM MO/AR TO WRN TN/NRN MS. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500 MBLAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT15-16Z ACROSS NRN MS...BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGRESSES E OFTHE LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS.

..JUST OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY THIS EVENING/EARLYTONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERTHE MS VALLEY. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORTELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENINGNEAR THE NE SC/SRN NC COAST. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THECONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATIONWILL BE MUCH STRONGER.

.THOMPSON.. 02/24/2008

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&&TOTALS SINCE 6 PM YESTERDAY. SNOTEL ESTIMATES ALL BASED ON A 10 TO 1 RATIO.$$

STACHELSKI

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TWO AND HALF INCHES FELL IN THE PAST TWO HOURS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES. ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED.

&&

$$

BYRD

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SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN IN ARVIN, AS WELL AS A SIGN DOWN AT A SUBWAY RESTAURANT.

&&REPORTS FROM STRONG GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING.$$

STACHELSKI

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AT SFC...CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHWILL MOVE FROM OH VALLEY NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH ASSORTEDOPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ONTRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS STRONGLYFAVORED BY MODEL CONSENSUS. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWDACROSS APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC COAST...AND SEWD ACROSSNRN GULF COAST AND NRN/WRN GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

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