6 February @ Non farm payrolls!!!

Market was anticipating the much awaited non farm payroll numbers and the unemployment numbers to confirm that the U.S., is on track in its economic growth recovery.

Wednesday’s ADP number was not encouraging at 213K against forecast of 224k, however, it was mitigated by the upward revision of December’s number from 241K to 253K. This means that there is a possibility that the non farm payroll numbers could surprise on the upside of forecast.

Market was steady at about 9:10pm Singapore time. My hunch told me that the non farm payroll numbers would be better, so I decided to bet on my hunch.

Orders: –

1. GBPUSD – Stop if Offered at 1.5290 when spot was at 1.5323

2. EURUSD – Stop if Bid at 1.1500 when spot was at 1.1486

3. EURUSD – Bought a put option expiring Monday, February 9 with a premium of 36bps, spot at 1.1486 an breakeven at 1.1450

4. USDJPY – Stop if Bid at 117.60 when spot was at 117.28

Of course, all of us knew what happened, the non farm payroll numbers came out at 257K busting forecast of 236K and the highest in the past 6 years.