Logic indicates the Braves, despite a flushed season, will keep Smoltz, which means fantasy owners may want to trade him before the major league deadline July 31.

First, a couple reasons why the Braves won’t trade Smoltz:

He will make $8 million next season. There’s no way the Braves can get equal value for him. His numbers at that price make him one of the biggest bargains in baseball.

Second, the Braves are awful but have no reason to dismantle the team. Next season they will head into the spring with good reason to think they can win the division. They have to believe Jeff Francouer and the other young guys are not this bad. Smoltz will top what will be a solid rotation, though bullpen help is needed.

Which leads to what fantasy owners should do with Smoltz. If he were traded, especially to the Tigers, his value would increase significantly. He would move to a pitcher’s park and a team with an authoritative offense, meaning more wins and better overall numbers.

But he’s not going to be traded, so his win total will remain down.

If someone in your league is willing to take Smoltz now in exchange for an equally strong starter on a winning team, make that trade. Often fantasy trades are more predicated on name recognition than actual numbers. Here the name is strong and the numbers are decent, meaning a throw-in may bring a dominant starter on a winning team, like Roy Halladay or Curt Schilling, which, in turn, helps your fantasy team more.

To read an impassioned extrapolation of why Smoltz is not going anywhere, check out the blog of David O’Brien who works for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution here.