In tournaments, I play lots of hands. I'll put my money in with all kinds of connected cards, especially when in position. I might limp, I might min-raise or raise a little more than the minimum, depending on the circumstances. I'm looking to keep my table off balance so they don't know where I'm coming from.

My overall goal is to pick up a lot of small pots without a lot of resistance. I might raise in position and hope for a call from one of the blinds. If I raise pre-flop with something like 6-7, I might miss the flop entirely, but the raise puts me in control of the hand. On the flop, I'll likely bet if checked to, even if I miss. That small bet on the flop will usually win me a small, but helpful pot.

Of course, sometimes it won't work out. I'll bet and get check-raised on occasions. But that's okay, because I actually don't lose much in the hands that I have to surrender. Overall, I get to gradually add to my chip stack by chopping at small pot after small pot.

The other major advantage to my style is that, occasionally, I will hit a flop hard. If I do happen to flop a straight, it's difficult for other players to put me on something like 5-7 or 6-8. If one of my opponents also gets a piece of the flop, I'll get paid off in a big way.

By adding to my stack early, I have a real advantage over players who play a cautious, tight game. The extra chips that I accumulate allow me to survive some tough spots. So, if I happen to get involved in a race with A-K or a pair of Tens, I can withstand a loss. An opponent who's playing tight will likely be on the rail after losing a single race.

New players often ask me how they can learn to play more pots. I always suggest that they drop down significantly in stakes and practice. If you're playing $2-$4 no-limit, drop down to $.50-$1 - a level where some losses won't hurt you.

Once you're at that table, try to play eight hands out of 10. Play everything but 2-8 or 3-9 - hands that are entirely unconnected. When you get yourself involved with this kind of frequency, you'll have to concentrate more on your opponents than on your own cards. You'll have to be on the lookout for opportunities to take down pots with well-timed stabs. You'll also learn how to proceed in situations where you flop a good, but dangerous hand.

By dropping down and playing a lot of hands, you're going to learn a lot about poker. You're also going to have a lot of fun. Lord knows, playing 50% of the hands is a whole lot more entertaining than sitting around waiting for Aces.

If you look at the success that Gavin Smith, Daniel Negreanu and myself have had over the last couple of years, you'll see that being active can be an excellent way to score big in tournaments. It takes practice to play this style, but it can lead to great results and be a lot of fun.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

This is very questionable activity by the Hulk himself, lathering his (attractive) daughter down with sun tan lotion. This is the same guy that had a GPS device installed in her car so that he could track her on her date. Hmm...

You know what I noticed when I watched this? Stevenson commits the flagrant foul via the right hook to the side of King James' noggin and then falls on his ass from the impact. King James on the other hand is unfazed from the blow and lands on his feet. No Boy-King this. This is the real deal. I wonder when Deshawn Stevenson will learn his lesson. He took your best shot and is still standing. Forget about being Soulja Boy to his Jay-Z, you're more like Milli Vanilli to his Tupac.

Monday, April 28, 2008

*Disclaimer: I am not using "hoe" as a derogatory term. She really is a hoe.*

Apparently the prositute that cost the NY Governor his job and pretty much his life, is suing "Girls Gone Wild" because they plan to release footage of her flashing for the cameras. Maybe she thinks it's morallay wrong for them to expose such girls. However, she will join you for a night of sex for $2k. Joe Francis' quote is a classic:

"But I think it's ironic that she charged Gov. Spitzer $2,000 for sex and she wants to charge me 10 million for taking some naked pictures of her," Francis told CNN. "I feel like I'm getting a raw deal."

University of Buffalo guard Andy Robinson was having trouble completing one of his papers. So instead of getting help from one of the free tutors that the University pays to help the student athletes, he placed this ad on facebook under his name:

"I am paying anybody who have read the book 'there are no children here' by Alex Kotlowitz $30-40 which in some classes you have to read at UB (even more money if you have to read the book a little more!!) to write a 3-4 page paper, on a couple of questions which was assigned."

One of the great things about John Hollinger's analyses is that they're not predicated on opinion. There are quantifiable variables in his conclusions. Tangible premises. Corporeal facts. They're about observing what has already happened to determine what might happen in the future. It's statistics, not opinion which is good because everyone knows what opinions have in common with assholes; they often stink. I will now proceed to use Hollinger's own statistical analysis against him.

In his latest ESPN article, Hollinger explains that he believed that the wiser choice for the Suns in game 1 would have been for them to foul Ginobili at the end of the game rather than allowing him to kick it out to Duncan for the game-tying 3. I dispute this claim using the same premises as Hollinger's "Hack-a-Ben" theory and his "expected points return" concept from earlier in the article.

Now disregarding the possibility that Ginobili would have shot the ball while being fouled, which he is more than capable of, and would have been awarded an and-1, the expected points return from fouling Ginobili would have worked out like this:

He's approx. an 89% free-throw shooter so the expected return on his first shot is:0.889 x 1 = 0.889

Since there was practically no time left on the clock I'm assuming that he would have intentionally missed the second free throw.

The Spurs had 12 of the total 44 rebounds that came off the Suns hoop which equates to them rebounding approx 27.3% of their missed shots. Since they were also shooting 50.5% from the field for the game, the expected point return is:0.273 x 0.505 x 2 = 0.276

Therefore, the expected point return total is:0.889 + 0.276 = 1.165

Since Duncan had not shot a 3-pointer the entire season I am using his career numbers for 3-pt shooting, which is 19%. Therefore, the expected point return total on Tim Duncan shooting a 3-pt shot is:0.19 x 3 = 0.57

So, as you can see, the expected point return total for letting Duncan shoot the three was just a little over half the expected point total for fouling Ginobili and that is without taking into account the possibility that Ginobili would have attempted and made a shot on being fouled. This confirms that in this particular instance, intuition, tradition and the mathematician can all happily concur that the Suns did the right thing. The fates had other ideas though.

This all goes to show that in sports, as in life, the best you can ever do is play the percentages. It's the safest bet, but it isn't perfect, not by a long-shot. It's also usually less fun than doing the crazy thing.

On a lighter note, can you imagine playing pick-up ball with Hollinger and his calculator? That's probably a completely unique experience.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Somehow this movie snuck up on me and it's coming out tomorrow. Basically it looks like some kid is a natural at poker and takes his act to Vegas as an amateur, where Burt Reynolds aka the poker legend starts staking him in the biggest games and tournaments. Doesn't look bad and it appears to be a continuation of "Rounders" after Mikey went to Vegas. The wack part looks like the prodigy kid's relationship with Shannon Elizabeth, who apparently turns out to be a hooker. Lol. Mikey would never fall for a hooker. His reads are too good for that.

With all the hoopla this year about the Western Conference race(s) and the amazing MVP resumes, I think we could finally put together a team that rivals the original Dream Team. Obviously you can never compare any team to a squad that featured Jordan, Magic, Bird, Stockton, Barkley and others, but let's consider the squad we could put together right now, if everyone showed up:

While some people still debate whether or not the "Kobe jumping an Aston Martin" commercial is real, Kenny Smith and the TNT crew debuted their new spot for Kenny's shoes last night during the playoffs.

You know those times when a coach or team leader (i.e. Kobe all the time) will go after the ref and draw a technical just to get the team fired up? In game 1 against the Hornets, Dirk managed to do the exact opposite.

Looks like there is going to be some serious gambling going on this summer. This is from Patrik Antonius' blog.

I was enjoying my first few days back in Vegas when all of a sudden I received a ton of phone calls and emails all asking me about a golf match with Doyle Brunson. I had no idea what they were talking about until I read Doyle's blog, and saw he challenged me to a $100,000 per hole golf match. First of all, when the hell did Doyle Brunson start writing a blog, is it even legal for a man that old to blog? Pretty amazing for a guy that was around before TV's and telephones. And second, what is the gambling world coming to when a 108 year old man can challenge a young man in the prime of his life to a $100,000 a hole golf match.

Keak and Prodigy are two of my favs. If they could have thrown Devin or someone on the third verse it'd be a five star track. Never heard Alchemist rap before and wouldn't mind if I never do again but he does deserve to do his thing since he's produced half a thousand classics in the last ten years.

Alright DeShawn. I know you're not a member of Mensa, but even you should know where to draw the line. It's one thing to say Lebron is overrated. I mean, despite the fact that he's averaged 30, 8 and 7 for the season, is the possible MVP and is a shoe-in for first team All-NBA, All-World and All-Universe, while your season highs were 33, 7 and 7 and you're the 4th best player on a 3-man team that finished 14th in the league, you're still entitled to your opinion. It's a free country. But then you had to go and do this.

There are just some things you should never do. High on that list is going into the house of the best basketball player of his generation and possibly the best ever and disrespecting him to his face when your team is down 1-0 in the series and 16 in the game. Some people call that ballsy. I call it stupidity. Despite the fact that you've posted your credit card number and offered a 10k reward to anyone who can hook you up with Lindsay Lohan on your myspace page and gotten this tattoo, you've just outdone yourself. Congratulations on ensuring that you will never make the NBA finals as long as King James is in the same conference as you.

Larry always seems to be forgotten when people talk about the great NBA dunkers, maybe because a 6'10 cat dunking isn't as impressive. But he possessed estraordinary grace for his size, and if you aren't even slightly amazed at seeing a man jump high enough to get his bicep on level with the rim, then I feel sorry for you.

Ever since they traded for A.I., the Denver Nuggets have perplexed me. This year they have two of the top five scorers in the league (Melo, A.I.), they have a good low-post presence in Cambe with a a solid partner in crime in Kenyon Martin and they have Kleiza and J.R. Smith to fill the holes.

So I always wondered, how do they suck so bad? Iverson was once known for his quick defense and Camby has led the league in rebounding and blocks.

Well I finally discovered why they suck so bad after watching this clip of the coaching staff: