Fantasy football “expert” Steve McDaniel has dealt with spectacular waiver-wire failures and a few successes over the years. Seems like the failures always hurt more than the successes help, but that could be the product of a faltering memory.

Andre Brown has feasted during Ahmad Bradshaw's injury. But what happens when Bradshaw is back?

As the National Football League continues its inexorable transformation into Arena Football League V. 2.0, offenses across the land are rewriting records faster than the ink can dry.

Week 1 was the highest-scoring season opener in league history, and better than 70 percent of those record 791 points came through the air. Offenses aren’t even taking the trouble to huddle; no sense wasting time calling a play when you’re just going to sling the ball 30 yards downfield.

What would seem to be a boon to fantasy teams everywhere might not be exactly that. For every Arian Foster touchdown run, there’s one for a career fourth-stringer like Andre Brown. Julio Jones hauls in a TD pass at the same rate as Brandon Gibson, while Carson Palmer matches Drew Brees passing yard for passing yard.

In other words, the wealth is being spread far and wide. This offensive surge across the NFL is as unprecedented as it is magnanimous, so it becomes nearly impossible to pinpoint who will get what when.

The danger in that uncertainty is that fantasy owners are notorious for chasing trends. Owners rush to claim Christian Ponder off the waiver wire after he channels Joe Montana, then he reverts to his normal role as the new Trent Dilfer. Take a flyer on Dennis Pitta after an eight-catch game, and he will surely total 25 percent of that when you put him in your lineup.

This wild unpredictability leads to a lot of tail-chasing, especially when trying to strengthen the weak links in your roster. If you’re lucky, you’ve got plenty of solid starters you can trust. But many owners are already casting about desperately trying to plug a leak that’s threatening to scuttle a season, and the stabs in the dark will only leave them in a deeper hole.

It makes a difficult situation nearly impossible. If you pass on a player that shows some promise, however fleeting, another equally desperate owner will grab him. Take him yourself, and you run the risk of starting a largely unproven commodity.

If sports in general, and fantasy football specifically, have ever shown any consistency, it is in the wholesale unpredictability of what will happen. The NFL’s offensive explosion even has Las Vegas trying to figure out how to set over/unders in this new landscape of 40-point games, so good luck trying to figure out who’s going to catch Tom Brady’s next TD pass.

This doesn’t mean you should avoid claiming those undrafted surprises. Being aggressive on the waiver wire is a

great way to help your fantasy team. Unknown and unheralded players arise every season to become solid contributors, and one or two usually end up as top-tier fantasy producers.

Just remember to use common sense with these potential stars. Start them if you must, but if you find yourself depending on them for fantasy victories, then learn to live with some disappointment.

THREE TO WATCH

CJ2K? He's barely CJ2X right now.

Week 3 is here and some would-be fantasy thoroughbreds have stumbled out of the gate. Three to Watch looks at Titans running back Chris Johnson, whose 2012 start is looking an awful lot like 2011, as well as the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and the Falcons’ Michael Turner.

CHRIS JOHNSON, RB, TITANS: The mess that is the Tennessee offense isn’t just one player’s fault, but it certainly starts with the former East Carolina star. He has looked hesitant at the line of scrimmage and has shown little of the burst that created the CJ2K nickname during that magical 2009 season. Some of that is on a Titans offensive line that has been woefully unable to open even a crack in the defense, but 21 yards on 19 carries is beyond bad, especially for a player who signed a $53 million extension a year ago. Fantasy owners who bit on Johnson’s strong finish in 2011 are cursing themselves right now, and it won’t get any better this week with the Titans likely playing catch-up to the Lions all afternoon. The finger-pointing has already begun in Nashville, with Johnson trying to deflect the blame to his blockers, so expect the situation to deteriorate.

AARON RODGERS, QB, PACKERS: Normally a lock for top-five QB numbers every week, Rodgers and the Packers have not looked like the offensive machine they have been for past four seasons with him under center. His passer rating is south of 90 and games against two solid defenses give an indication of Rodgers’ comparative struggles, especially in light of the fact that QB numbers across the league are surging like Apple stock. Two games do not a trend make, and you have to figure Monday night’s matchup with the Seahawks defense will help Rodgers get right. If that’s the case, then his owners who spent a top-five pick to claim him can start breathing a little easier. If Green Bay struggles again, we might have a whole different conversation.

MICHAEL TURNER, RB, FALCONS: Anyone who watched Turner against the Broncos on Monday night, then read about his DUI/speeding arrest the next morning probably wondered the same thing I did: Why can’t he run the way he drives, with his foot a little harder on the pedal? Turner has been on the downhill side of the RB curve for a while now, and the drop seems to be accelerating. The Burner’s yards-per-attempt average is a laughable 2.6, he’s 30 years old, and the Falcons are full-fledged members of the rapidly growing pass-first club. Sunday’s game against the Chargers promises to feature a whole lot of passing yards and not much for Turner again; any fantasy owner clinging to the hope that he can help them right now is fooling themselves.

Submit Your Comments

Name

Required

Mail

Required, will not be published

Website

Comment

Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive. For more information, please see our Comments FAQ.

About This Blog

Howdy. I’m sports editor Dan Spears, and I keep everything straightened up around here — with thoughts on pretty much anything to do with sports, both locally and nationally. I’ve been with the StarNews since August 2006, and sports editor since September 2008. I’m a big college basketball fan and have been to the first weekend of the NCAAs every year since 1997, either as a fan or a writer. I attempt to play golf, run marathons and play volleyball here in town at Capt’n Bill’s on Market Street. Enjoy reading, and let me know what you’re thinking … Dan