Trudeau would be prime minister if election was held today, poll finds

Justin Trudeau would be prime minister if election was today: poll

OTTAWA — Canadian voters would flock back to the federal Liberals if an election occurred now with Justin Trudeau as party leader — making them contenders to defeat the Conservatives and form government, a new poll has found.

As well, Trudeau is the top choice among voters to be prime minister, surpassing the Conservatives’ Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair of the NDP.

The findings are contained in an exclusive survey conducted for Postmedia News and Global Television by Ipsos Reid.

The next election won’t occur until 2015, but if Canadians went to the polls now, it would be a three-way race.

Thirty-two percent of decided voters would support the Liberals if led by Trudeau — up six points from last November and 14 points since last June.

Meanwhile, 31% would vote for the Conservatives, down three points since November 2012.

The NDP, which stood at 38% last June, has fallen to 27%.

The Bloc Quebecois under Daniel Paille would garner 6% of the vote, while 4% would be split between Elizabeth May’s Green party and various other parties.

Federal Vote Support The Liberals are in contention in three key provincial battlegrounds: In Ontario, they are in a dead heat for top spot with the Tories; in Quebec, they are tied for first place with the NDP; and in British Columbia, they are running a strong third to the NDP and Conservatives.

The Tories maintain a strong lead in Alberta, are slightly ahead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and are in third place in Atlantic Canada.

Ipsos Reid CEO Darrell Bricker said in an interview Thursday the dramatic shift in public opinion comes from three factors: “Progressive” voters are turning to Trudeau as their voice for change; Mulcair’s momentum is “sputtering”; and Harper’s government is “wearing out its welcome.”

“All elections become about either continuity or change and that is the question that will build as we work our way toward the next election,” said Bricker.

“Are Canadians prepared to take the risks associated with change? Or do they want more of the same? And right now I’d say they are flirting with change.”

Are Canadians prepared to take the risks associated with change?

Indeed, the political resurgence of the Liberals — who once held a firm grip on power but have steadily lost support in the last four elections — appears to stem from the popularity of Trudeau.

The 41-year-old Montreal MP, first elected in 2008 and son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, has kept a relatively low profile in Parliament but has travelled the country extensively in recent months for his party’s leadership contest.

He has been criticized by other Liberal leadership contenders for being vague on where he stands. But according to the poll, Canadians appear to like what they see so far.

Trudeau ranks ahead of the other party leaders on a range of key qualities: Trustworthiness, ethics, values, political vision, and representing Canada on the world stage.

Only in one area — managing the economy in tough times — does Harper score best.

Anybody who thinks that Justin Trudeau is a will o’ the wisp doesn’t understand how sympathetic his profile is with how Canadians are feeling right now

“Anybody who thinks that Justin Trudeau is a will o’ the wisp doesn’t understand how sympathetic his profile is with how Canadians are feeling right now,” said Bricker.

“I think what you’re seeing in Trudeau is the visual manifestation of youthful change and hope and opportunity for people on the progressive side of the agenda.”

“The left needs to love. And they need to be inspired by somebody. At that very primal level, Trudeau seems to fill that need, that space, for an inspirational leader who can make the left side of the agenda hope.”

The poll comes as good news to the Liberals, who gather in Toronto this weekend for the final event in a leadership race that is expected to end April 14 with the announcement in Ottawa that Trudeau is leader.

Conversely, the survey is bad news for Mulcair, whose party holds a convention in Montreal next week.

What you’re seeing in Trudeau is the visual manifestation of youthful change and hope and opportunity for people on the progressive side of the agenda

Trudeau’s popularity could also stymie the Tories, who ran effective attack ads against two previous Liberal leaders, Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

The poll found that 41% of Canadians believe Trudeau would make the best prime minister, compared to Harper (36%) and Mulcair (23%).

On virtually every leadership attribute, Trudeau was ahead, including: