India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /03_Dec_2010

By IBT Staff Reporter On 12/03/10 AT 3:14 AM

Dear Reader,

Global Markets:

The Dollar was under pressure on strong risk appetite in market. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 436k vs. 407k previously but the market was focused on strong performance of European bonds and US home sales data. October Pending Home Sale jumped 10.4% m/m. Looking ahead, November NonFarm Payrolls are forecasted at 140k vs. 151k and Unemployment Rate at 9.6% vs. 9.6%. The Euro was strong after talk in the market that the ECB was buying Portuguese bonds aggressively. ECB announced it was delaying his exit from emergency liquidity and continued to keep providing unlimited liquidity to the market through 1Q11 and left main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. The Yen top out again and fell back below Y84 after the USD broadly weakened. The Aussies hovered at around $0.9755. Australian trade surplus widened more than expected to AUD 2.63b in October but retail sales disappointed and contracted by -1.1%.

Technical Highlights:

EUR/USD: The Euro is currently trading at 1.3204. Euro was strong over night after talk in the market that the ECB was buying Portuguese bond. Immediate support comes near 1.3140 levels (21Days 4hourly EMA) then next support at 1.2970 levels, while immediate resistance comes near 1.3340 (200 days daily EMA). EURINR (59.59) -Importers cover partially near term exposure near 59.30 levels. Exporters are suggested to book near term exposure in 59.80 - 60.00 regions. Short term and Medium term: Bearish.

GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5592. Immediate resistance comes near 1.5620 levels (200 days daily EMA), while support is expected around 1.5485 levels. Exporters are suggested to book Dec month's exposure on spikes near 70.60 - 70.80 levels while Importers can cover partially on dips (70.30) levels. Short Term: Bearish; Medium Term: Neutral.

USD/JPY: USD/JPY (83.69) had plunged from an intraday peak of 84.46 to 83.47 yesterday, led by risk appetite. The market will now wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls due to release today. Immediate Support is seen at 83.20(21 Daily EMA) while immediate resistance is at 84.40 (21 Weekly EMA) levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book Dec and Jan month's exposure near 82.50 levels and Yen Importers can cover their exposure towards 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 0.9750 levels. AIG Services Index was at 46.2, lower than previous at 50.7. Immediate support comes at 0.9570(100 Daily EMA) levels while immediate resistance comes at 0.9780(21 Daily EMA) levels. Exporters are suggested to book partial Dec and Jan months exposure on spike towards 0.96 to 0.97 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish

GOLD: Gold (1389.15) tested $ 1398 yesterday but failed to sustain and reversed sharply. Overall it made a low of $1382 and high of $1398 before closing at $1389. Immediate resistance comes near 1400 levels which once broken should push the yellow metal to 1410 levels. On the downside 1330-40 is a very important support .Buying on dips for target of 1400 is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 80.27 levels after mixed economic data and is heading towards the next level of resistance at 82.10. US initial jobless claims jumped 26k to 436k, compared to previous at 410K while Pending Home Sales m/m jumped 10.4% in Oct, compared to previous at -1.8%. Immediate support comes near 79.80 levels.

For more details on Currency and Commodity futures call 022-65280677 or sms at 9920095265.

DISCLAIMER These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.