Actually, I'm with perry on this. The odds of flipping a coin 100 times and it being heads for every one is astronomical. But after 99 flips being heads, the chance of it being heads again is still 50%- and the odds of it being tails are 50%. Likewise, your chance of being mafia this game is just as likely as it was last game. As such...

In my defense, any sane man would have gone mad with that kinda power. And I like to think that I, despite my powertrip last game, remain a well leveled and calm individual.

If you heard a thunderclap at the end of that sentence, I assure you it is merely the weather.

And this cat I am stroking isn't mine, its a friend's

And oh wauw, if that martini over there is shaken we may have to seriously consider switching themes......

All joking aside I am going to toss in with the vote for Raya. She is way to good at getting your trust then stabbing you in the vitals....especially in the final hours of the game.....like a stupid sexy assassin.

I am going to change my vote to Req, Raya seems to be just as good as a random vote while Req seems like the first actual bandwagon vote. And while that does not really mean he is scum. It is certainly better than a random vote.

There are varied levels of chance in play that you're not taking into account. You're taking only the direct base of what's coming into play, this particular situation, which is in itself incredibly rare concerning forum mafia. We have the exact same players, same numbers. You're assuming that chance is static. Unchanging, but that isn't chance after that point, is it? It's all calculated. Chance is by it's nature, random and changing. We're not talking about a situational occurrence. I can your coin ten times and have it stay the same or changed, but a coin is only two sided. We have a game with 20-something players. Combine the random occurrence of getting a mafia role with the random occurrence of getting a mafia role twice with the same group and it multiplies the unlikelihood considerably.

We're not talking about which door the car is behind. That is stable. Unchanging and predetermined. We are talking about the random occurrence of getting a role of mafian twice in a row in the same game with the same players. It is not something that was predetermined, but chosen at random. I don't remember my math very well, but let's take a 20 sided dice. What are the odds of rolling a 15? 1 in 20 right? What if you want to roll a 15 again? It is statistically more difficult to do. Why? Because chance doesn't work with each individual roll. It takes everything in. Whether or not you choose to accept that is your choice. I do understand chance, that's why my RP character is so in tune with it. Accepting and recognizing chance is something I know. I also know that if you lynch me, you'll regret it. When you do, I'll laugh. I'll laugh and laugh and laugh, because I warned you. And no, this isn't a threat, or some attempt to get you to let me go. It's a prediction.

You see, I know you all. I knew the risks of suggesting the concept of chance and accepted them. I've seen you all discuss it in skype. I also know that mentioning that my role is a nice one will only make you more suspicious, but I don't mind. I've given you the facts, and that is all I can do. So go ahead and lynch me, and watch me die. Just remember that when I die, I warned you, and it was your closedmindedness to the very basic mechanics of chance that prevented your from seeing the truth, and I will laugh. When you kill me, two will die, though only one will be shown. Have fun!

Heheheh... The best part is that Viero didn't actually change his vote

Ehhh... I disagree with Req's reasoning, mostly because it doesn't apply to this game.

See, the chances you were mafia in the last game sits at 100% because you were. Now, with a new game we can disregard it. You can't take a long view in these cases. The odds of you being mafia this game are more or less the same as they were the first time around. I'm pretty sure someone here was townie... 8 times in a row? Something like that. I remember it being an ongoing things, or something like it. Anyway, every game they played they had the same chance as the last time (Based on number of players)

When we talk about the odds of who's townie and who's not it is very important to note *previous games don't matter*. We're not trying to find out if you rolled mafian twice in a row, we only care if you rolled it THIS time. Essentially the best you can say is that you're not mafian because it's slightly more likely you're a townie.

Now, from what you're saying about "Two will die" I'm thinking either lover bond or a bomb. Either way, the... "I know what you guys don't but soon you'll all learn!" approach is NOT doing you any favours in the townie soft claim (could be 3rd party)

This is fun, or was fun. And it's all about longterm reasoning. Also, how did I break my own defense? You're not making any sense! Or perhaps I'm not making any sense. I haven't decided yet. Also, I do believe that I stated that my stating that my role was nice was likely to be looked down upon didn't I? And look! Behold! It's being looked down upon! See the wonders of my beliefs!

In all seriousness though guys, if you lynch me, you're kind of only screwing yourselves. Also, if I do get lynched, I really will laugh.

But seriously, I don't see how you don't see this. Yes, for the sake of argument the odds of you rolling mafia twice in a row are lower.

BUT!

It doesn't matter what you rolled last game.

If you rolled townie last game you have the same odds to roll mafian this game as a mafian would.

I think where your getting mixed up is the fact that the odds of a townie rolling mafian this game is higher than a mafian doing so, but only because there are more of them.

If you're going to go by trend technically more townies will become mafians than mafians. But that doesn't hold true to the individual!

(Kinda made your argument against me up there)

I've got it! Imagine a roulette wheel with 23 spaces on it. Now, 12 of these spaces are green (For Townies) 6 are Red (For mafians) and 5 are Blue (For other). These apply to the last game's roles. Now imagine someone rolls 6 times to determine the new mafians. The arguments WE'RE making is that the odds of any ONE PERSON is the same, 1/23. The argument YOU'RE making is that the odds of it being a mafian (6/23) is less than the rest of the board. While both statements are true only one of them matters when it somes to the individual.

I was saying WRONG in regards to what people thought my role was. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion after all when it comes to the concept of chance. Also, I don't like roulette. That aside, there is more to it than that. You have to go longer than just one game. You have to look at all the previous games. The energy from the previous games makes an imprint on the flow of time and energy in the universe which subtly impacts the way things go in regards to where your roulette ball falls. The issue we're having is that we're looking at two opposing systems that are both in effect accurate. It's a wonderful thing, isn't it?