Paynents to genel,dno and gkp by the Kurddish regional government to be announced in the morning.
This news will hopefully provide gkp and genel with some well needed stability and may help form a base for the sp.

if you recall I had 75 and then 64 as key supports. A break of 75 pointed to 64, being the 50% fib of the rise from 42.25. This happened last week as expected. We now also have a lower low on the daily, so the short term uptrend is broken. MA50 is also at 64 and that helped stop the fall on Friday.

So, daily breakout of downtrend failed and weekly resistance held on price and RSI (this was the key chart IMO).

I think GKP got off lightly with the E&P Co falls last week after OPEC - it usually excels in both directions so maybe more to come.

Next stop/support is 58.50 on daily, being the next swing low of 5/11 and the 61.8 fib. If that goes then we might retest the low of recent months. 58.50 needs to hold. First support below that is 50.

Trendline support on the weekly is in the 40 area but the monthly trendline support is right at 64, where we are now.

However you look at it, it doesn't look good and for me, 58.50 is a certainty now. If that breaks I will wait for 42. Hope none of the bulls here bought that false breakout .

GL
F4T

psyurmh wrote:

Hi F4T

I hope you are enjoying your new tools!

Do you still think that 59p should be tested and maybe even the 50p area?

Calculation: This indicator measures momentum of the 5 last barsand subtracts from it the the momentum of the 34 last bars.

Notes: A histogram view is best for this indicator.

Interpretation:
"Saucer" Buy signals:
Generated when the histogram which is above the zero line changes its direction from falling to rising.

The most recent saucer signal cancels all previous ones (do not forget to delete pending orders after the signal is cancelled).

"Saucer" Sell Signals:
This signal is generated when the histogram that is below the zero line changes its direction from rising to falling:This signal is generated when the histogram that is below the zero line changes its direction from rising to falling.

"Cross" signals:
A buy (sell) signal is generated when the histogram crosses the zero line from below (above).

"Twin Peaks" signal:
A buy (sell) signal is generated when the histogram is lower (higher) than the zero line, and the last indicator's bottom is higher (last indicator's top is lower) than the preceding one. Between these two bottoms (tops) the histogram can never be higher (lower) than zero.

*I should add, it doesn't have to have a complete red saucer/trough to confirm the count as I mentioned in last post, if the upward trend is strong, the tips of the histogram can turn red, above the zero line and it can still reverse. Thought it was worth adding as nothing HAS to happen*

KK,, playing around with GKP on PRT last night and after many attempts I could not find the Chaos Awesome Oscillator anywhere in the Add Indicator section or elsewhere if it comes to that so would you be as kind to direct me,,

Now mine is set up slightly different - someone very kindly gave me the script to copy and paste it in to PRT (Thanks Stevie!). Set up like this and in conjunction with elliot wave it helps pick out/confirm counts.

As for my MACD settings - these were also recommended, as you can see it's peaks and troughs look similar to awesome oscillator, just quicker timeframes.

If you want to try out the Awesome oscillator - I can send you the script to copy and paste into PRT.

I always thought 12 26 9 were the standard MACD settings....dohhh am I wrong?, which have already gone red.
Bounced off low of 65 so far today, which is very close to MA50 (currently 64.4) and an oblique minor support (~63.75).

Here's the chart I posted on the 11th November, I did think the resilience of the shareprice may take it a little higher to 92p area (shoulda stuck to this view!!!(remember cautiously bullish, doh!)), which would have made things easier moving forward - knowing it had taken out 89.75p - it didn't, so I feel this count is right and v waves up completed.

So my views are with this count and this chart - we have retraced pretty much to 50% fib but odds on we retrace to 61.8% fib around 58/59p for correction and end of wave 2 as I would like to see indicator turn red to confirm count - this is all assuming that the bottom is in and this is not a larger ABC correction in prevailing downtrend, as opposed to waiting for an impulse 3 upwards. Absolute confirmation though is not breaching low in the 40's! Law - wave 2 cannot go below 1, just can't see it though.

Psst! Now, if I could just get everyone to post images at least 1800px x 1112px, so they expand when we click on them, that would be great. They can be larger if you like cos Remo's software will automatically reduce them to a manageable size no worries. It just means the detail in the posts are so much easier to read - especially for those of us who are optically challenged

Daily:
Breakout downtrend resistance but not at equivalent RSI resistance yet (RSI usually leads). SP retreated below short term trendline (light blue) and RSI is retesting the equivalent short term resistance. IT did gap up nicely on Friday but failed. A gap down Monday would not be positive.

So, a mix really but generally technicals tell me that this should have experienced a sharper technical breakout on the daily on volume, but volume was poor last week. I will be watching the weekly next week to see what happens there.

As noted in an earlier post, one has to consider fundamentals alongside technicals when there is conflict. Why hasn't this exploded out of the downtrend as the technicals say it should have done?
For me, valuation is the big issue here for the reasons I noted before. Even the brokers agree lol. Am not sure which ones are being paid by GKP these days: probably Cantor Fitzgerald

If you want to save charts to your own drive go to the very bottom left of your chart screen and hover over the icon on the extreme left; this gives the option to 'Email; Print; Save; Facebook; Twitter'. Opt to save and you can even specify what size you want to save. This is the best way to save and have access to your charts whenever you like.

Libero/Monkeyz, that's the best chart pattern I've ever seen! You should copyright that as it's obviously the most powerful pattern known to man!!!

Here we go.....

The Middle Finger Reversal Pattern

The Middle Finger (reversal) Pattern : The Middle Finger reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a massive trend reversal. The pattern contains one almighty peak with the middle finger saying F00k U! The reaction lows at the base of the peak (known as the fist) can be connected to form support, It's better known as a clenched fist.

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be the mother of all reversal patterns. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Middle finger reversal pattern.

The Fistline (or clenched fist): The fistline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the thumb and index finger and the beginning of the middle finger. Low point 2 marks the end of the middle finger and the beginning of the left two fingers of the clenched fist known as the ring finger and baby finger, sometimes known as 'pinky'. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the 'fistline' can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the fistline will not affect the pattern's degree of bearishness - the outcome will always scare the sh1t out of shareholders and traders alike.

Volume: As the middle finger pattern unfolds, even volume plays no role in confirmation. Forget volume indicators (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) chuck 'em out the window.

Fist Break: The middle finger pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until fistline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, you will know how convincing it is by how pale your skin turns if you are 'locked in' or have forgotten to place a stop as you will literally be scared sh1tless.

Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is not common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Only sometimes, but mostly never, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell, if not it is really, really saying f00k u!

Price Target: After breaking fistline support, the projected price decline is usually around 90% and you can forget Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages as this pattern is the biggest F00k u pattern ever to be seen. It is considered darker than a "Black Swan'event, and is known in some circles as 'The Black Bear.'

You're very welcome, it costs a fortune for a subscription for live prices etc, but what you get for free I find is unbelievable and end of day is good enough for me. Like I said if you're doing more than 2 trades a month, even if only a penny per trade, you get it free with IG otherwise they charge you about £30 quid a month, I think, from memory, just for the privilege. You can get it free for a month's trial though first to see if you benefit from the live charts and prices on the shorter time frames 5 minute, 10 minute, hourlies etc.

You can also save different templates/page layouts etc - I think you'll love it.

The close and the open are the only two reliable price points and are confirmed by the relevant exchange.
Most amateurs use the shadow for trendlines, and they do have some relevance, but secondary.

I went through all this before, so won't repeat. Each to their own.

TF, it is quite normal to be bullish on one time frame and bearish in another. If you remember I called the bottom correctly some weeks ago. Peaks and troughs. Peak at 89.50, trough at 42/43, peak at 73.75 (missed there but hey ho). No one is right all the time as this is an inexact science, we can only use our judgement. I have no holdings above the current levels or below, so I have nothing to lose be being short term bearish here.

Trendfriend - Absolutely - Whatever works best, there is no wrong or right. I always start on the wick of a a swing high or low and plot the line to the most touches. But that's just the way I've been taught.

Hi folks, interesting reading today's views on GKP, nothing good old GKP debate to start the day

Anyway surprised to see some still bearish here, the time for being bearish (and off course, i could be totally wrong) has now gone, its time to be bullish, the setup is bullish, but anyway i wish everyone the best of luck, whichever your trading this.

With regards to trendlines, the normal way to draw trendlines is using the tops of the Candles(price), imho.
Any other way requires use of ones imagination.

Closing prices can be used, but this way has a problem, in that the close is not always where it should, use yesterdays GKP close for example, it was trading at around 76p at 4.30pm, the UT and closing price was actually 79.5p!!
Which was approx where the trading kicked of today.

Sometimes the close is the other way, so its trading higher and closes lower,for no real apparent reason. this is the problem with using end of day prices in charts imho. In any case i guess, the way that works best for you, is the best way to draw your charts.

All this talk of trendlines and PRT/ADFN got me looking a little deeper into PRT optional views and I found something I'd not seen before, namely 'Three Line Break' charts. The above shows daily activity for GKP going back to Sept 2004 on one page! These charts use closing prices, and continue to plot in the same direction until the closing price exceeds the high or low of the previous three days, hence drastically reducing noise and providing a much better indication of the trend. This also provides very clear indication of significant supports/resistances.

My apologies if I'm preaching to the converted here and everyone, bar me, is well aware of these charts; but I found them very useful.

I think 465 was an anomaly. Using the closing prices for trendlines takes out such problems with odd trades that give different traders different results, but it does provide problems with plotting fibs etc when different providers use different data. I will look a prorealtime and let you know how I get on.

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