Arabica Coffee Prices are Stable

Posted on: 2017-04-07 9:55 AM

Arabica coffee prices were trading with slight upside bias on Thursday, with light trading volumes and a lack of fresh fundamental drivers leaving traders reluctant to bid the commodity in either direction. Recently, arabica coffee futures were fractionally higher, up 0.3% at $1.375 per lb.

Overall; however, downside pressures are winning when it comes to the arabica market on the expectations for a bumper crop in Brazil. The arabica market has gone through a volatile few years, with prices first soaring amid a big drop in production after a drought had a major, negative impact on plants in top producer Brazil. This situation reversed after the weather improved in Brazil and then arabica futures saw a rapid unwinding of their gains as crop prospects improved. From a technical perspective, the downside is also winning. Technical indicators have arabica rated as a strong sell. The near-term trading range is narrow, with support at $1.374 and resistance at $1.3802

For robusta, we have the opposite situation. Dry conditions in Brazil’s robusta growing region as well as a drought in top robusta producer Vietnam have dimmed crop prospects and caused a rapid rally in prices. On Thursday; however, robusta futures retreated, losing 0.37% to reach $2,145 per ton. The downside came following the release of data showing that robusta coffee bean exports from Indonesia’s top growing region Lampung climbed by 28% in March, year-over-year. The supply situation for robusta has become so tight that it is expected that it will take years for the market to recover.