Climate Change and Political Violence

In this study, Dr. Charles B. Strozier and Kelly Berkell probe the possibilities of significant forms of political violence—terrorism, civil wars, genocides—that could result in vulnerable societies from the disruptions of climate change. The consequences could be severe and dangerous. The four-year drought in Syria from 2006 to 2010 disrupted the infrastructure of a country led by a corrupt dictator in ways – including the mass migration to urban areas – that made the civil war after 2011 a major cause of political chaos. Scientists found the drought far more likely because of the region’s increasing aridity, which is attributable to climate change. ISIS has been able to flourish in the failed state that Syria became by 2014. Bangladesh, which lies only slightly above sea level, could be devastated by a major typhoon strengthened by altered weather patterns. The political institutions in the country are already on the brink of collapse with Jihadis lurking on the fringes. There was already a genocide there at the hands of Pakistanis as recently as the early 1970s, and India has constructed a fence along much of its border with Bangladesh to prevent smuggling but also for the apparent purpose of keeping out climate refugees.

A related facet of the study is to examine the politics of the one solution to the climate crisis that some important environmentalists have embraced, namely nuclear power. A group of scientists, notably including James Hansen of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, feel there is no other choice to prevent a global disaster from unfolding in the course of this century. Others are cautious and feel the risks of expanding nuclear power could well contribute to rapid proliferation and unacceptable radiation risks, and feed newer and apocalyptic forms of terrorism.