Chelsea in 2009/10 were the best shots team of the enlightened era and it doesn't feel like a team will top their dominance for a while.

TSR and SoTR are pretty good indicators of team strength. 4 of the 5 title winners are in the top 10 all time (2009-2014) in SoTR. 9 of the bottom 20 in TSR were relegated, the others came close.

Wigan stayed up with a 81 PDO. I kinda think it must be a bug but I can't find one. Wigan posted a 50% SoTR and a 50% TSR that season and had a -42 goal difference. Somehow they survived.

Manchester United, the champions in 2012/13, posted a 53.4% TSR, which has confused many an analyst over the years.. That same year Manchester United posted a 59% SoTR which is the 22nd best on record. 66% of the goals scored on 59% of the shots on target.

Thursday, 18 December 2014

You have to sing the title of this post to to the tune of this bizarre classic by Paula Cole:

Killer chorus.
A question: Where have all the set piece goals gone?

Through 160 games this season we have seen 72 set piece goals (if the numbers are out lemme know). Through 160 games of the 13/14 season we had already seen 96 goals.

So what gives: are teams taking less set piece shots or has shooting% from set piece shots dropped off? In fact, both of these things have happened.

Set Piece Data In 14/15

S 14/15

SP Shots F

SP Shots A

SP Goals F

SP Goals A

Shooting%

Arsenal

56

38

3

6

5.4

Aston Villa

39

52

2

5

5.1

Burnley

39

67

1

6

2.6

Chelsea

54

31

7

2

13.0

Crystal Palace

41

58

6

7

14.6

Everton

41

47

6

2

14.6

Hull

28

65

2

2

7.1

Leicester

37

78

1

6

2.7

Liverpool

52

44

2

6

3.8

Man City

46

45

1

2.2

Man United

51

53

6

4

11.8

Newcastle

62

44

2

2

3.2

QPR

66

53

5

4

7.6

Southampton

52

42

3

1

5.8

Stoke

63

60

2

4

3.2

Sunderland

57

31

3

1

5.3

Swansea

33

52

1

4

3.0

Tottenham

52

43

5

1

9.6

West Brom

48

46

5

5

10.4

West Ham

72

40

9

4

12.5

Total

989

989

72

72

7.3

72 goals on 989 shots for a shooting% of 7.3% from set pieces.

Set Piece Data In 13/14

S 13/14

SP Shots F

SP SHots A

SP Goals F

SP Goals A

Shooting%

Arsenal

41

50

4

4

9.8

Aston Villa

39

50

3

4

7.7

Cardiff

59

67

5

2

8.5

Chelsea

57

42

7

5

12.3

Palace

55

41

4

6

7.3

Everton

56

43

8

3

14.3

Fulham

38

75

6

8

15.8

Hull

57

64

2

4

3.5

Liverpool

61

47

10

5

16.4

Man City

65

28

10

5

15.4

Man United

51

44

6

6

11.8

Newcastle

46

57

4

6

8.7

Norwich

48

60

2

5

4.2

Southampton

68

50

5

3

7.4

Stoke

42

62

3

8

7.1

Sunderland

52

50

5

6

9.6

Swansea

39

57

4

3

10.3

Tottenham

64

54

3

2

4.7

West Brom

48

43

4

4

8.3

West Ham

55

57

1

7

1.8

1041

1041

96

96

9.2

96 goals on 1041 shots for a 9.2% shooting%.

We should know by know that shooting% fluctuates over small samples and a drop from 9.2% to 7.3% can probably be filed under 'shit happens'. The shooting% may well regress so let's not worry too much about percentages. But I do wonder why shots from set pieces are down by 152 from this point last year, -152 shots is almost a shot per game.

Anyone have any ideas? Data issues; a change in tactics; fewer shots from corners; fewer direct free kicks being given; better defending from set piece situations?

As always I want you guys to do some of the work, so let me in the comments if you can think of any reasons for the drop off in both shots and shooting% from set pieces.

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

By one-sided game I mean one-sided shots count. And I am just guessing at the IN PREMIER LEAGUE HISTORY bit, although Manchester City's title winning game, where the home side outshot QPR 44-3, is likely to be the most one side game on record.

Manchester City took a shot against QPR's goal every 131 seconds during this game. The then soon-to-be-champions were shooting at a ferocious pace in this game and as the chart below illustrates score effects and the sheer urgency of the situation led to ever more frequent shooting from the home side.

The second half of the game on that title-winning day saw Manchester City take a shot every 90 seconds. Staggering stuff. It very nearly ended in tragicomic farce but for that goal

Monday, 15 December 2014

I have taken the height and weight of every player to have played in the league (as of November the 12th, so a few players will be missing). I then split those players into three buckets: Defenders, Midfielders and Forwards. Goalkeepers are removed from this data.

This table lists the average height (cm) and weight (k) of each bucket of positional players for each and every Premier League team.

Table
As always, I publish the data for everyone to use, sort or scrape.

Sunday, 14 December 2014

This is a pretty straightforward post really. The only rule I put in place in terms of eligibility was had a player actually played in the Premier League this season (14/15). Some guys have been injured all season, some guys just haven't played yet. Tough luck.

54 nationalities, 463 players.

42.1% are from the UK. 48.1% are from the UK & Ireland. 77.5% are from Europe.

Wednesday, 10 December 2014

A quick post here on some of the underlying numbers posted in the UEFA Youth League groups stages.It is worth considering the relative quality of each group and the yawning gap in talent between some of these teams. Shots on target numbers are way up and I don't think it has anything to do with the data. Young teams just tend to give up shots on target at a higher rate (here's looking at you Eredivisie). The better teams will be able to take high quality shots on net at this level due to the skill disparity between the teams. Scoring and save percentages may remain high due to this skill disparity. Plus, you know, 6 games only and all that.

Tuesday, 2 December 2014

During this cold and rainy evening in what is normally the mild and bright month of December in Barcelona, I decided to clean up a couple of tired and messy databases that I am in possession of. During this clean up I realized a couple of things: I only watch sports so I have an excuse to use a spreadsheet and I have data on all worlds of weird and wonderful topics.

One of the interesting topics was a database titled 'The History Of Premier League Title Winners'. This database was opened and there on the page in front of me was every Premier League title winner in the 38 game era and each teams cumulative points total over the course of the season.

So, anyone see anything interesting there? I have highlighted Chelsea over the first 13 games to make it easier for you. Still nothing? Well, much to my astonishment I realized that there have been teams that secured more points over the first 13 games of a season than Chelsea have this year (33).

Three teams have achieved this feat: Manchester City in 11/12, Manchester United in 06/07 and Chelsea in 05/06. It is also worth noting that 2 other teams have matched Chelsea's haul of 33 points over the course of the first 13 games: Chelsea in 09/10 and Arsenal in 03/04.

The 5 teams mentioned were all darn good. The points totals for this gang of five range from 86 to 91 come the end of the season. We could just leave this mini-investigation here and say 'hey, teams with 33 points from their first 13 games are all really good teams and end up winning the league in that given year'. Yet this statement would ignore the teams who had 33 points or more from the same number of games who didn't win the league.

So I dredged through some old Premier League tables and found 8 teams who had 33 points or more from the first 13 games. Why did I go to such trouble? I wanted to see how those teams performed over the remainder of their respective schedules after they had gotten off to such hot starts.

Here are those 8 teams with their points totals in the first 13 games and their points totals over the remaining 25 games.

Points

First 13 Games

Next 25 Games

PPG

First 13 Games

Next 25 Games

Arsenal 03/04

33

57

Arsenal 03/04

2.54

2.28

Chelsea 05/06

34

57

Chelsea 05/06

2.62

2.28

Man United 06/07

34

55

Man United 06/07

2.62

2.20

Chelsea 09/10

33

53

Chelsea 09/10

2.54

2.12

Man City 11/12

35

54

Man City 11/12

2.69

2.16

Man United 09/10

34

57

Man United 09/10

2.62

2.28

Arsenal 07/08

33

50

Arsenal 07/08

2.54

2.00

Newcastle 95/96

34

47

Newcastle 95/96

2.62

1.88

Average

33.8

53.8

Average

2.60

2.15

The average points haul over the next 25 games is ~54. This number is dragged down by a single point by Newcastle's famous collapse in the 95/96 season. If we look across the table we can see that every single team saw a drop off in points per game in the next 25 games of the season.

Why did this happen? 13 games is a short span where luck can run hot, injuries haven't yet taken their toll, "form" is excellent, the schedule is soft and forgiving and all these things may have contributed to a points pace that was likely unsustainable over the remainder of the season. Injuries, fatigue, cooling off of some hot luck and a stiffer schedule may have led to a drop-off of the points pace.

The average points per game pace of this group fell by 0.45 points per game over the remaining 25 games of this season. In real terms this is a drop off of 11 points from any points projections that may have been made at the 13 game mark.

11 points is a significant number: Chelsea are on course for 96 points as it stands. The above table, while not concrete evidence, at least hints at some form of regression in terms of points per game pace.

Let's say Chelsea win 54 points from their remaining 25 games to finish on a total of 87 points from 38 games. Does that sound reasonable? It feels a touch low but if true then Chelsea's record over the next 25 games would look something like this:

ChelseaWin 16Drawn 6Lost 3

Right now it seems impossible that Chelsea would drop points in 9 of their next 25 games but 54 points is the ball park figure for a team who recorded 33 points in their first 13 games. But you know, as much as that W/D/L line looks a little crooked it still results in Chelsea recording 87 points. 87 points is a lot of darn points and good enough to win the Premier League in 13 of the last 20 seasons.

You know what else 87 points is? Almost impossible for Manchester City to match.

Manchester City currently sit on 27 points from their first 13 games. It's a decent haul but it's a ways behind where Chelsea currently sit. This is the record Manchester City would have to post to get to the 87 points I have projected for Chelsea:

Manchester CityWin 19Drawn 3Lost 3

Now that is a difficult ask my friends. How on earth could Manchester City pull that off? I could find only six teams in the last 20 seasons who had 60 points or more from their last 25 games. Do you want to know who one of those teams was? Manchester City in 13/14: 61 points with a W 19 D 4 L 2 record.

With Manchester City's soft schedule over the next seven or so games I'd expect the papers/media to begin talking up Manchester City and chipping away at premature bullshit like this:

Chelsea struggle to beat QPR at home, Keown #motd analysis? "This is maybe the best team we've ever seen in PL. Almost perfection."

Martin Keown on MOTD: "This Chelsea team is one of the best teams we've ever seen in the Premier League. Almost perfection." #CFC
— ChelsTransferGossip (@ChelsTransfer) November 1, 2014