Analysis: Boston suspects likely 'lone wolf' terrorists

Apr. 19, 2013
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People cry and react before the funeral convoy carrying the coffins of three French-Israeli children and a Jewish teacher killed in a gun attack in Toulouse in March 2012. / Philippe Desmazes, AFP/Getty Images

BERLIN - Terror analysts in Russia and Europe say the two brothers suspected of bombing the Boston Marathon do not appear to be engaged terrorists but more likely fit the pattern seen in Europe of disaffected young men radicalized by jihadist websites.

The low-tech devices used in the attack and the open parroting on social media of well-known overseas Islamist preachers indicate that the two were not part of a widespread organized terror plot.

"It a bit too early to say, but the similarity between the devices used and the instructions in al-Qaeda's Inspire magazine might suggest they were self-radicalized," said Neil Doyle, a British author and expert in online extremism and radicalization.

The devices that killed three and maimed more than 170 in Boston on Monday appear to be copies of ones that online Islamist radical magazines provide step-by-step instructions for, Doyle said.

And the older brother, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, appears to have referred often online to radical speeches exhorting Muslims to commit jihad. Then there is the gap in regular work and activity, Doye said.

"Tamerlan Tsarnaev had recently taken a year off and there is the possibility that something happened during that period," Doyle said.

Tsarnaev, 26, who was shot dead by police Friday, and his brother, Dzhokhar, 19, who was captured Friday night after an extensive manhunt, hailed from the troubled north Caucasus region, which has been torn apart by violence for more than two decades. What began as a secular independence movement and was brutally suppressed by Russia has become increasingly radicalized toward Islamism.

The Tsarnaev family relocated to the United States 10 years ago and there is no indication the attack was done on behalf of radical Islamist groups in Chechnya, experts said.

Victor Mizin, a senior Russian security analyst and vice president of the Center for Strategic Assessments in Moscow, says terrorist groups in the Caucasus have little to gain from an attack on U.S. soil.

The Tsarnaev brothers "left the Caucasus when they were very young, so I think it's highly improbable that they were planted there," Mizin said.

Given that the family integrated well into America, Mizin suggests the brothers were influenced not only by online material but by non-family mentors who may or may not have been preaching jihad.

"Either they went mad and had personality problems, or they got under the influence of some kind of clandestine jihadist organization that still exists in the U.S.," he said.

"Lone wolf" terrorists as they are known have committed several recent terror attacks in Europe. One example is Mohamed Merah, 23, a French citizen of Algerian heritage who killed three Jewish children, a rabbi and three French soldiers last year.

Men like Merah can be drawn to radical Islamic ideology and inspired to launch attacks that they see as part of a global jihadist movement, and they never come into direct contact with organized terrorist groups, analysts say.

"Self-radicalization seems to be a growing trend, if you measure it by the number of recent cases that have featured al-Qaeda's Inspire magazine," Doyle said. "Syria features in a video on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev's social network page, and there are reports of Chechens fighting there."

Dzhokhar's online presence is also reported to show support of Chechen separatist groups. But analysts following the two-decade conflict in Chechnya say that whether or not the suspects believed they were fighting for Chechen independence, the horrific attack can only damage the cause.

"Whether this attack turns out to be linked to the Chechen independence movement, it is already damaging that that link has been made," said Lilit Gevorgyan, Russia and CIS analysts at IHS Global Insight in London. "It's the last thing the Chechen people would want - with all the hardship they face as a result of the unresolved conflict this won't help attract good will to their cause."

Others say it is still possible that the brothers were right-wing terrorists, which have a presence in Germany and the United Kingdom.

"It is possible that the two young men had some connection with a neo-Nazi group," Simon Bennett, director of the Civil Safety and Security Unit at the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom.