And I have doubts about the Gilberts. I doubt Q-Ball even knows where they are. He will land right in your face with overwhelming quantity and quality where it hurts most.

No pressure.

Ok, where it could be this landing site so? The way i see it, it's too early for a direct drive to the Mariannas. His Carriers are now strong, can't deny that, but he will have to rely only on them for such a move, and with Wake and Marcus in my hands, full of Mavis/Emilies, there's no way such an invasion army could slip through without being seen. I'll have the time to get there in force and fight him back. Sumatra is another possibility, but, then again, i think it's quite early for such a move. I have some decent garrisons there and 3/4 divisions are ready as a mobile reserve in Java/singapore. The Kuriles? They are decently garrisoned and, with the winter season already in place, i can't see how he can risk to land there now.

What do you have in mind ?

I honnestly think he won't go for a super bold move. It is still early and I think he has a sense of how you play as well : You have been surprised by his way of nimbling you everywhere but you have shown that you are overexposed nowhere and have planned for a conservative defense...

His situation is good enough that he won't risk everything with a too bold move. he will i think rather keep pushing everywhere ie get you rolling back in Burma, finding a few small bases in DEI where he can land by coup de main and start building up for a big drive and hit the Marshalls, without massive investment, because it keeps you busy too.

And I have doubts about the Gilberts. I doubt Q-Ball even knows where they are. He will land right in your face with overwhelming quantity and quality where it hurts most.

No pressure.

Ok, where it could be this landing site so? The way i see it, it's too early for a direct drive to the Mariannas. His Carriers are now strong, can't deny that, but he will have to rely only on them for such a move, and with Wake and Marcus in my hands, full of Mavis/Emilies, there's no way such an invasion army could slip through without being seen. I'll have the time to get there in force and fight him back. Sumatra is another possibility, but, then again, i think it's quite early for such a move. I have some decent garrisons there and 3/4 divisions are ready as a mobile reserve in Java/singapore. The Kuriles? They are decently garrisoned and, with the winter season already in place, i can't see how he can risk to land there now.

What do you have in mind ?

I honnestly think he won't go for a super bold move. It is still early and I think he has a sense of how you play as well : You have been surprised by his way of nimbling you everywhere but you have shown that you are overexposed nowhere and have planned for a conservative defense...

His situation is good enough that he won't risk everything with a too bold move. he will i think rather keep pushing everywhere ie get you rolling back in Burma, finding a few small bases in DEI where he can land by coup de main and start building up for a big drive and hit the Marshalls, without massive investment, because it keeps you busy too.

I agree with your analysis mate. Brad, till now, has been very smart but also very cautious. He never risked his CVs, nor his main assets. Going extremely bold would mean expose himself to a possible decisive battle...which can go both sides - as we all knows . Why should he risk now? He's in a very good position and he barely lost anything important so far. He doesn't need to risk.

His milky runs over Mytikina went on for over 2 weeks now. Every day 100 2Es arrived over Mitikyna and over Wazrup, supporting the positioning of his troops (more units are now spotted flowing down towards Wazrup). I 've never tried to stop them. But today, we prepared a small ambush. And it worked. 3 Zero Daitais, 3 Tojo Sentais and 1 Nick Sentai were ordered to fly LRCAP over Mitikina. The enemy arrived in 2 well coordinated waves, escorted by more than 50 Hurricanes and Martlets. Our Tojos didn't do such a great job (too far away for my shortlegged Tojos - remember that we never use droptanks in Burma to save supplies) but the zeros shown that, even in nov 1942, they can still hold their own if flown by good pilots. We lost 6 zeros (0 KIA, 3 WIA) and 1 Tojo (pilots safe) for a total of more than 38 enemy planes.

Not a game changer obviously, but these ambushes should force Brad to be more cautious with his air attacks and should buy me some more days. What do i do with the time bought? Simply: i need to reinforce Burma. It's a clear fact. Cannot wait any longer. I have too few units there and Brad is really sending a strong army against 3 different sectors....dividing my defences. The 16th Division is now ordered to recombine and march towards Mitykina. Cannot risk to lose that front. 2 Brigades are re-directed from southern DEI to Rangoon. This is a tough call but Burma is too important.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Myitkyina , at 64,42

Overall i'm leading steadly the A2A kill ratio by 2 to 1. Lost very few good pilots (a part from those during the first bloody stages of war) and most of my front line units are equipped with what can be considered the real cream of the Empire.

Burma: the enemy swept Mitikyna with 130 Fighters! His numbers are rising everywhere... he found empty skies cause i couldn't leave central Burma uncovered so our ambushes can take place just once in a while. Then the usual 100 bombers bombed Mitikyna and Wazarup, while his armies are closing in and we're rushing to send there some tiny reinforcements. He probably hoped to find Central Burma empty, cause he sent a raid against Magwe... I had moved back my Tojos and Nicks from yesterday ambush so we were ready. our guys did a great job, shooting down 47 enemy planes for no losses 4 Mitchells were even shot down by my flak which, in DBB, really works fine for both sides! A good day in Burma. We're buying time for the supplies to flow to the front. It's hard cause only a tiny number arrives to our brave guys in the jungle, but something arrives all the same. And every day adds a sip...which is good.

China: the 23rd Army breaks again the enemy front west of Kweyang, while the 11th Army arrives and cuts the main road that leads from Kunming to the central plains. The tanks are on march and tomorrow we'll attack again with a division supported by a huge artillery pack. Things are developing well. Now my main goal is to keep up the pace of advance. Cannot give him time to dig in again.

CENTPAC: it's confirmed. Tabiutea is the target. A large enemy fleet is arriving from Baker. We don't have much to defend this area at the moment. Only some 4 CLs and 7 DDs which are dispatched by Rabaul....but they won't get there in time....

SOPAC: a huge air raid against Terapo today. Liberators and Flying Fortresses. Spotted more than 400 aircrafts between Portland Roads and Cairns.... not a good sign. The southern front seems quiet, with Ndeni and Lungaville stripped from their air assets...he's concentrating his planes in NE and NW Oz....

DEI: we're slowly building up our wall. Troops are flowing but supplies remain a problem. We're, none the less, creating our defensive perimeter from Sebang to Timor... takes time but the air HQs are in places and garrisons are arriving...once again the main concern is related to supplies. I've managed to create some decent fuel reserves for the fleet at Kendari (100k), Makassar (80k), Koepang (70k) and Java (150k).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

The americans landed at Attu and Amichtika with not less than 3 divisions (2/3 RCTs plus 2 full divisions), using not less than 30 AP/AKs and the whole carrier fleet. Then they landed at Baker with some indipendent regiments. Ok, nothing wrong with that. But then, their next amphib push towards Port Hedland and then Broome was carried on by some old RN BBs, some Australian cruisers and not a single AP/AK...only xAPs and xAKs. He used an american division and the 6th Aus Div (a division which is supposed to be devoted to the SEAC theatre). Not a single CV or CVE. Nothing at all. Only LBA. We have spotted in the whole allied burma offensive only the 18th UK Div which can be considered an elite unit. The 2nd UK is vanished. I reconned every single base from Calcutta to Ledo, down to Cox Bazar and Dimampur...nothing...only Indian units and some armoured Bdes.

Where are the three marine divisions? Where is the 2nd UK? Where is the other Aus division that starts at Aden? Where's the Americal division? Where are his CVs? Where are his AP/AKs????

They are not at Perth, Exmouth or Port Hedland. I have glens and Mavis covering all those areas and if a mighty fleet was there i should have seen it. I'm pretty sure his RN BBs are still between Perth and Exmouth and some cruisers too, but not the CVs.

The invasion fleet that is sailing to Tabiutea from Baker doesn't seem "mighty"... probably some cruisers, destroyers and some transports...but not anything like 4/5 big Divisions....

Where are they? What Brad is aiming at?

5 Divisions, with this map with stacking limits, cannot be used everywhere. CENTPAC, in this view, isnt' the right place to use them. Tabiutea can hold 40k troops, true, but he doesn't need all those units to do that job...Tabiutea is almost empty with only a SNLF unit defending it.... no, this must be another of his smoke&mirrors....

Let's consider the possibilities:

KURILES: It's now november and the season is not ideal for this kind of operations. I guess he could grasp a couple of islands...but not those garrisoned properly...would be crazy, imho.

MARIANNAS: yes, those divisions could be used for that. All those islands have a stacking limit of 35,000 men, so something like 2 divisions each + some support troops... but there's no way he could get there without being spotted. I have Mavis/Emilies covering the whole ocean from Shimushiri Jiima (Kuriles) to Marcus to Wake and to Makin...and by the time he gets there i'd be able to send the whole Combined fleet to meet him. Moreover he would be far away from everything he holds...too exposed. No, it's not possible at the moment...not without taking Wake or Marcus first.

CENTPAC: again, it would be uselessy risky, imho, to invade anything big and deep here without having built first the southern Marshalls (Tabiutea and such). I'd be glad if he come here... but Brad's too smart

SOLOMONS: this is a possibility. He has been reconning Munda (our main air base in the area) for weeks now. Tulagi and Lunga are garrisoned, but nothing that those crack divisions cannot conquer and, with Ndeni in his hands, he could have the support of his LBA. Doable, but he'll be facing my air defence system which, for this area, is pretty decent. I have several AFs in range of Air HQs and got some decent mobile reserves in the Rabaul area.

NG: Milne Bay, Terapo or Buna are all possible targets. But i think would be a waste to use those elite divisions for these targets...which are, once again, in range of my main base in the whole pacific (Rabaul)...and he knows it cause he's been reconning Rabaul every day for more than 4 months now. He knows i'm strong in this area.

SOUTHERN DEI: Here's where he could try a "coup de main". He has huge bases in NW Oz, from where he could sail unmolested and land several divisions between Timor and Java, cutting my defences in two. This is my best guess. This is a very possible target. His only problem will be that he'll be facing both my LBA and my KB, along with several SCTFs based at Sosarbaja and Timor...

Christmas Island: This is a juicy target for him imho. If he gets here, i'm toasted....but a single island can also be a trap...no, he needs bases that can easily develops into an interconnected air defensive system. This can't be a main target. A side show, maybe, but not the main one. However i've sent 200 AVs there behind 4 forts...enough to prevent any easy landing.

WESTERN SUMATRA: this is where i'd land if i was him. Several possible bases with great developing potentials where all those divisions could be used easily. I'm preparing my defences here. Sebang has been garrisoned with a Division, 2 Artillery Units and an Air HQ. Around Palembang i'm building 5 interconnected AFs supported by an Air Division HQ. Bankoleng and Padang are being garrisoned and am rushing to send something to Siberoet...but can't cover everything so i have to be ready to face the threat of a massive landing. A cruiser TF is being moved to Sebang, while a BB TF will be stationing at Merak. 200 Bombers are being moved to Singapore and 180 Fighters to Palembang. The KB will wait and see where the REAL threat will deveolp. How can you stop 3 USMC Divisions? You cannot, i know...but i have to try

DEI looks like a good option for him, but it's still early. Is it possible to get a sub line with Glens spaced out every 8-10 hexes 15-20 hexes out from Sumatra? At least this could give you some warning.

It's nearly impossible to stop a landing, but you can make it ineffectual. If you have enough in area or a day's flight away, you can surely disrupt and cause injury to the troops coming ashore. It does seem very risky for him to mass and try to land with only CV support while the KB is so strong, now. Maybe in several months, but a combo of KB and LBA in the DEI is pretty potent. The best defense for you now, with the compressed territory you have to defend, is to make sure the KB is hidden. If he doesn't know, it's a huge chance to take predicting where it might be lurking.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

DEI looks like a good option for him, but it's still early. Is it possible to get a sub line with Glens spaced out every 8-10 hexes 15-20 hexes out from Sumatra? At least this could give you some warning.

It's nearly impossible to stop a landing, but you can make it ineffectual. If you have enough in area or a day's flight away, you can surely disrupt and cause injury to the troops coming ashore. It does seem very risky for him to mass and try to land with only CV support while the KB is so strong, now. Maybe in several months, but a combo of KB and LBA in the DEI is pretty potent. The best defense for you now, with the compressed territory you have to defend, is to make sure the KB is hidden. If he doesn't know, it's a huge chance to take predicting where it might be lurking.

Agree. Unfortunately Erik, this turn my KB TF got its detection level raise to 1/1...which probably means a radio transmission has been intercepted and now he may know where my CVs are. I'm however trying to use all the smoke&mirrors i have to puzzle him...hopefully he won't see my Mini-KB assembling north of Timor...still undetected. This TF will be positioning around Makassar so to be able to cover fast any possible approach to Western and Southern DEI, while the KB sprints in from Babeldolap.

I also agree that a DEI landing in 1942 in a risky solution... probably i've been so shocked by Nemo's warnings and suggestions during my last game that now i see ghosts everywhere

If I were him i would look for places in the DEI but only go for it with a big landing if I can have very high hopes of getting at least 2, better 3 interlocking bases that I can than build up.. At this stage of the game it can still be a death trap for allies to overreach. you just have to show your strenght in the DEI, with a few heavily garrisonned bases and others at least occupied. south west New Guinea is always a good place for coup the mains for the allies : You land for cheap, build those bases up so that they can provide LBA fighter cover and when you have 2 or 3 of them you can start going for bigger things like Ambon and the celebes...

Again If I were him I'd probe but if reconned showed you have enough defense + likely a couple of reaction forces hub like Kendari, I would probably only go for cheap fast APD like coups de main that don't cost much if they fail.

If I were him i would look for places in the DEI but only go for it with a big landing if I can have very high hopes of getting at least 2, better 3 interlocking bases that I can than build up.. At this stage of the game it can still be a death trap for allies to overreach. you just have to show your strenght in the DEI, with a few heavily garrisonned bases and others at least occupied. south west New Guinea is always a good place for coup the mains for the allies : You land for cheap, build those bases up so that they can provide LBA fighter cover and when you have 2 or 3 of them you can start going for bigger things like Ambon and the celebes...

Again If I were him I'd probe but if reconned showed you have enough defense + likely a couple of reaction forces hub like Kendari, I would probably only go for cheap fast APD like coups de main that don't cost much if they fail.

I am trying to do exactly that. Taberfane already has a base force and 7 engineers units are arriving in the area. The bases between Timor and Ambon are getting their planned garrisons: cannot have much, obviously, but we're doing our best to cover this side of the map. However he doesn't need his CVs here. He doesn't need 3 marines divisions neither! ....

well guys, i think i've really done everything i could to defend my perimeter given the assets i have at my disposal.... now it's just time to sit and see what he has planned for me.

If I were him i would look for places in the DEI but only go for it with a big landing if I can have very high hopes of getting at least 2, better 3 interlocking bases that I can than build up.. At this stage of the game it can still be a death trap for allies to overreach. you just have to show your strenght in the DEI, with a few heavily garrisonned bases and others at least occupied. south west New Guinea is always a good place for coup the mains for the allies : You land for cheap, build those bases up so that they can provide LBA fighter cover and when you have 2 or 3 of them you can start going for bigger things like Ambon and the celebes...

Again If I were him I'd probe but if reconned showed you have enough defense + likely a couple of reaction forces hub like Kendari, I would probably only go for cheap fast APD like coups de main that don't cost much if they fail.

I am trying to do exactly that. Taberfane already has a base force and 7 engineers units are arriving in the area. The bases between Timor and Ambon are getting their planned garrisons: cannot have much, obviously, but we're doing our best to cover this side of the map. However he doesn't need his CVs here. He doesn't need 3 marines divisions neither! ....

well guys, i think i've really done everything i could to defend my perimeter given the assets i have at my disposal.... now it's just time to sit and see what he has planned for me.

Fortuna Audaces Iuvat

Look a bold move in the DEI can always succeed and get his timetable going forward a year ahead of time, but if he has to land with a division (plus the supporting troops and engineers to developp the base) to be able to take it, the risk is big for him...

The problem in AE compared with WITP for the Japs is that there are lots more bases to cover and therefore you probably can't prevent him landing somewhere in a daring raid and taking a base.

What you need to do though is : - have no base that can be developped to AF4 or more uncovered. even a tiny garrison means he needs to bring more guys. - Show enough strength in the area in a few bases to make him think you are anticipating such a move. Ie even go for a few psy ops in the emails exchange saying you welcome a battle in the DEI or whatever. - Have enough AFs ready so that if he takes a base you could bring you LBA to bear and suppress it forcing him to either keep CVs on station for longer time or abandon air supremacy while you counterattack. - Have a counterattack hub where you have 2 divisions and a couple support troops you could bring in to retake a base you have suppressed if he doesn't land with overwhelming force. - I am not an expert on the efficiency of air transport to quickly reinforce a base that is being sieged ? than having a couple of transport units ready so that you can get a few 10s of AVs more it could help.

The conclusion I suppose is that you must prevent him from getting mutually supportin bases...

The best way of doing it is putting yourself in his shoes : what would you try to do with your Divs and CVs ? where would you try to land. Do you go for a big operation near Java to land on 2 or 3 bases with 5 divs + supporting troops and all your CVS, near a potentially strong defense, or do you go for a softer underbelly in southern PNG ? do you go for big landing or try a quicker raid to grab a base and try to develop it or failing that at least forcing the japs to use their LBA to suppress it and therefore show some of their hands?

I think the difficult part of the mobile defence idea is going to be gathering enough ships to transport the mobile reserve troops. You have been struggling to get the shipping needed for the economy set up and moving in convoys, so I expect they are scattered between the DEI and Japan, with a few devoted to feeding the garrisons elsewhere.

You cannot afford to reserve xAKs to move two divisions. You must be prepared to use fast transport via CL/DD to supplement whatever xAPs/APDs you can assemble. This will leave behind most of the heavy equipment but move a lot of AV in a hurry. The heavy stuff can come later when you pull together an xAK convoy and cover it all the way to target.

_____________________________

I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

Brad's CVs suddenly appeared south of Tabiutea, escorting a convoy composed of several APs and xAPs. Our Marshalls air garrison took off in the afternoon from Makin, targetting the juicy APs... the Wildcats of the VF-2, VF-6, VF-42, VF-3 and VF-8 shot down not less than 45 of my planes for no losses...but some Nells managed to get through, sinking 1 AP, 1 APD and 1 xAP full of troops. Not bad. Expensive but finally something.

The enemy started a HUGE bombing campaign against NG. PM, Terapo, Buna and Lae are targetted by something like 200 4Es and 200 2Es, escorted by 50 P-38s and 24 Beaufghters... My Zeros and Tojos did what they could over Lae, bringing to hell some 15 enemies... but they were too many...and they couldn't prevent the bombing run.

In Burma another day of heavy bombing over Mitikyna. 230 Fighters swept first, followed by 100 2Es... God his numbers are really becoming fearsome!

In China we won another battle. Now we hold the main road from Kunming to Chungking. My two armies are already marching in the two opposite directions. The enemy front now is cut in two pieces.

Later i'll post the combat report... at least we now know where his CVs are (didn't spot them directly but the presence of those squadrons make me think they are there somewhere...)

CAP engaged: 752 Ku S-1 with A6M3a Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling) 7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact. Group patrol altitude is 25000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 16000. Time for all group planes to reach interception is 55 minutes 203rd Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 3 scrambling) 17 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact. Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 15000. Time for all group planes to reach interception is 45 minutes

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Arorae at 138,137

yes they come with the CVs... but one can move them... but I think it's a safe bet that the CVs are there....

oh... and now that their fighting General's ship is sunk - what do you have to worry about? :D

:-P

Yes, i thought the same about moving the squadrons out...but all of them? Don't even thing by this date the Americans have enough CVEs to guest all those squadrons... no, the CVs are there...let's see if i can get a lucky hit...

I read all the AAR's ( a man's gotta have a hobby) so I don't say much. I can say it's a little over 2 weeks from where his carriers are, to where you think they may be. And that includes a pit stop in port to shore up any minor damage before going into a major operation.

I read all the AAR's ( a man's gotta have a hobby) so I don't say much. I can say it's a little over 2 weeks from where his carriers are, to where you think they may be. And that includes a pit stop in port to shore up any minor damage before going into a major operation.

Who knows indeed, but recall that Q was a follower of Canoerebel's AARs, reading up on their game after it ended and contributing to CR's game against PJH. CR's Sumatra invasion plan may appeal to Q and he has certainly been exposed to it. Then again, at this point it's anybody's guess what his Alpha Plan is...

I always have an army hq when i attack, with top leaders everywhere, plenty of artillery etc. But that terrain is a wooden rough so it gets a +3 bonus, plus all the internal forts they have built. I've always supported my attacks there with more than 130 bombers....but i only got a couple of 1-1 shocking... A bloody affair so far

Who knows indeed, but recall that Q was a follower of Canoerebel's AARs, reading up on their game after it ended and contributing to CR's game against PJH. CR's Sumatra invasion plan may appeal to Q and he has certainly been exposed to it. Then again, at this point it's anybody's guess what his Alpha Plan is...

I agree, but with his CVs being positioned south of Tabiutea, i can't see how he could do anything really bold like a DEI invasion now....without air support is not doable imho....so i may have enough time to reinforce the western perimeter...moreover, if his APs (his best ships) are there too, i think it's pretty safe to say that nothing major is happening in western DEI right now. Sebang already has a division, 2 artillery units, an air hq and 2 base forces. Padang, Siberoet and Bandoleng will have a strong garrison ( at least 200 AVs with 4 forts and artillery). 2 divisions will be kept in reserve at Batavia with 18 xAPs and 15 AKs, ready to be moved.

In burma the real battleground seems to be Warzup. He's massing his left side against it and we're reinforcing the place with another division...hope to be able to hold cause i'm very exposed on that flank and a defeat would be strategically a disaster

Now at Makin the 2 Nells squadrons, who suffered 31 losses in today battle, are replaced by 2 fresh Betty squadron, backec by the Genzan daiatai (27 zeros) coming from shortlands. The air search has been intensified and 2 i-boats are getting closer to the area.

I'm also keeping an eye on the enemy convoy spotted at Townsville, where are also spotted 65,000 men, 550 guns and some 390 tanks...a bit too much for a garrison, right? But again, without the CVs, no major threat could come from there for the time being