Brewers To Non-Tender Chris Carter

The Brewers have decided to non-tender power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). MLBTR had projected Carter to earn $8.1MM in arbitration.

Carter, 29, signed on with Milwaukee after he was non-tendered last winter by the Astros, agreeing to a one-year, $2.5MM pact. He rewarded the club with a .222/.321/.499 batting line and a league-leading 41 home runs over 644 plate appearances.

It’s certainly somewhat unusual to see a forty-homer bat set loose despite ongoing control. In fact, Carter has another year of arb eligibility beyond 2017. But it isn’t as if his prodigious power output came as a surprise; he swatted 37 dingers back in 2014.

The trouble with Carter is that he has never managed to reach base consistently. He also led the National League with 206 strikeouts last year. Then there’s the fact that he’s rather limited in the field. Carter’s days in the outfield are probably numbered, and he drew negative metrics last year at first.

MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently broke down the arbitration decision facing the Brewers, explaining that it was a tougher call than it seemed at first glance. While more than three quarters of MLBTR readers who participated in a poll felt Carter should be tendered, that wasn’t the course pursued by Milwaukee GM David Stearns.

All signs point to a move back to the American League, where Carter can spend time at DH while perhaps occasionally stepping in at first. Beyond the pure home run output, he has managed to maintain a lifetime 112 OPS+, even if it comes with a cringe-worthy batting average (.218) and OBP (.314). Carter owns a career 33.1% strikeout rate, and that probably won’t change, though he has managed to draw walks at a solid 11.6% clip. And it’s worth noting, too, that he has not traditionally carried very pronounced platoon splits.

Milwaukee, it seems, decided against committing that much cash to a one-dimensional player who would’ve been forced onto the field. The team isn’t exactly bristling with replacement options. The Brewers just claimed and then designatedAdam Walker — a younger, cheaper player who carries Carter’s general profile at the plate — and could perhaps give him a chance if he clears waivers. Prospect Jacob Nottingham could also get a look, though perhaps the odds are that the rebuilding club will end up looking outside the organization to fill its needs at first base for 2017.

Slugging .499 with paltry OBP numbers is pretty impressive. It’s not like he was in their long term plans but I’m guessing they try to bring him back. His arb projection definitely makes him too high of a cost.

When the qualifying offer is 17.2, the ridiculous contracts that get signed for bullpen help that isn’t even a closer or Andrew miller type not to mention the billion dollar deals mid market teams are getting the $ is so ridiculous that 8 mill is kinda chump change. That’s a deal even Tampa may look @

Especially when they also post 206 SO’s in 644 PA’s while also fielding at a -1.5 dWAR.

Brewers fans should be reminded that they just signed Carter as a free agent last season for $2.5MM when he was expected to make twice that as a first time arbitration eligible player with the Astros before being non-tendered by the December 1st deadline. None of his negatives on offense or defense have improved, so some other organization will now have an opportunity to get the player he has always been throughout his career…big time power and little else.

Btw-The Brewers will also have another chance to re-sign Carter as a FA, perhaps for significantly less than his $8.1MM projected arbitration salary in 2017…just like last year.

Btw- Carter was a former White Sox draft pick in 2005 (15th round) who never played on the South Side but did fetch Carlos Quentin in a straight up swap with the Diamondbacks in 2007. Two weeks later, Carter was flipped to the A’s in a much bigger trade that also involved big names like OF Carlos (“Cargo”) Gonzalez, right-handed SP Dan Haren and southpaw Brett Anderson. He finally made his big league debut in 2010 with Oakland before being traded once again in 2013 to the Astros in a package deal that netted Oakland infielder Jed Lowrie.

The non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players will be Friday of this week. Carter’s free agency will become official the following day unless he is traded in the meantime, which now appears unlikely. Technically speaking, the Brewers have not made an “official” announcement or release, meaning no waivers have been requested, as the deadline approaches.

Doubt it. The guy was a poor man’s Dave Kingman at the best of times, only Kingman had his dog as a personal bat boy to draw attention sometimes away from the fact he was mostly a 1 trick pony HR hitter, who otherwise had -0- defensive ability, not to mention strikeout machine.

I would rate Chris Carter’s offense between Gorman Thomas and Dave Kingman.
Thomas was a good defensive CF; Kingman was actually a much worse defender…..than anyone.
Kingman bounced around quite abit but became an asset once he became Oakland’s full-time DH, at a time Oakland just needed bodies..

I agree, Chris carter is mark trumbo, yeah he has a lower batting average but both players WAR where hardly above replacement level, as a Yankee fan I would like to see them sign carter as the dh. If it works out and he hits 40 great, if not use the dh as a revolving door to rest players. Don’t give up a draft pick on Edwin, Bautista, or cespedes. Let the kids play and just maybe we might have something special

Well, I didn’t realize how abysmal his defense is. Both B-R and FG say he’s worth less than a win above replacement, due to being almost comically bad with the glove. At that rate, paying a guy $8m is a losing proposition.

I like this move quite a bit. Saving some money a guy that’s not a part of the rebuilding plan. It was fun watching CC hit some bombs this year, but the Brewers can use that money for some mid-tier quality free agents this winter. That or save for next off-season when they plan to compete in 2018.

This guy was making 2.5 million in 2016. Understandable that he has a crappy BA with a high strikeout rate, but that’s pretty much what sluggers are. 94 RBIs isn’t bad either. But now that he’s loose, his name has “Baltimore Orioles” written all over it.

Exactly. Although I would hope it would be more Mark Trumbo/Nelson Cruz than Pedro Alvarez. At 29 and with some arbitration years left, this could be a great pickup for the O’s in hitter friendly Camden yards. Could spell Davis at 1st if they want to rest him during a back to back game.

The brewers don’t have much to draw fans on. An occaisional mammoth home run helps and you would think a 40 hr guy who is only owed about 3 mill the rest of the year would draw interest around the league July 31st. Seems like wasting of resources on the brewers, but then again they got 41 hr for 2.5 mill last year so you can’t dog them too much.

That is because they keep racking up losing seasons. Carter at 5 mil for half a year and trade him for a low level prospect midseason is a good idea. Telling your fan base you are already giving up on this year by declining a proven supply of power on a fair contract is not going to help. I’d be all for it if he was blocking someone but you may as well pay the league leading hr hitter a pretty paltry sum in nowhere’s ville to stick around an extra year to gain some assets. Not like free agents are going to be lining up to sign there the next few years.

Hey any Sabermetrics people be able to answer this. If Carter were purely a DH and there was therefore no fielding component to his WAR. Would that change his calculated WAR? Or would it remain the same?

Yet, the negative hit to his WAR would be based entirely on the DH positional adjustment rather the combined factors of the 1B positional adjustment and his negative defensive numbers at those positions. I believe it depends on just how bad his defense is as to whether or not it would it would make his defensive WAR even worse to move to DH.

In short, his 2016 defensive WAR = 1B positional adjustment + 1B defensive runs above replacement (which is a negative number in Carter’s case), while his likely 2017 defensive WAR will just = DH positional adjustment. The question is are Carter’s defensive numbers bad enough to make up the difference between the 1B and DH positional adjustment numbers?

It honestly depends on how terrible his defense is, which it looks to be truly awful.. WAR figures in positional adjustments and DH is obviously the worst position to play. It’s actually some sort of interesting debate because is it really a negative if a team isn’t even asking you to play defense?

Anyway, his offensive output was a 114 OPS+ last season. That seems reasonable for a DH-only player. Perhaps, like Ortiz or Napoli, he’ll be a slightly better hitter not having to worry about defense anymore. He seems like a good replacement for Napoli, a pretty similar player except better against right-handers than Napoli is.

As an Astros fan I’ve watched Chris Carter play quite a bit and was so happy when the stros let him go. Brewers were smart too. 41 homers is cool…. but when you strikeout 206 times you aren’t good. He can’t play defense even at 1B and he never gets on base. Love the guy as a person and all, but its boom or bust with him and frustrating to watch!

Morales also hit 45 points higher and struck out 86 fewer times while putting up 30 bombs in KC. Not saying Morales is a great signing but he helps move runners when not getting on and is more than bomb or walk.

Carter has more hr power. Gattis can hit doubles triples and homeruns, he was one of the league leaders in triples in 2015. Before you say it’s luck it’s not. It proves that he is a at least decent base runner( Mike Napoli comp) while his defense is also not good, he is considered the backup catcher and outfielder, being a backup catcher proves that he has some defensive ability. Gattis is an all around better player, there’s a reason the astros let him go and kept Gattis and it’s not because of money because they were open to adding more payroll prior to last year, because they’re smarter than you tsolid so pipe down unless you have something worth commenting on and don’t come back with some OBP bulls$@t, it’s not a “tell all” stat

Getting on base is literally the most important skill to have in baseball. Runners on base is what creates runs. Gattis is cheaper and he can squat behind the plate occasionally, although he’s a terrible catcher. And thos triples in 2015 were pure fluke.

11 triples is not luck, it shows that he can read outfielders and knows when to take chances based on the situations. So your saying you would rather have carter than starlin castro just to name one player, Castro hit 50 points higher and had a way LOWER OBP less hrs less RBI, didn’t play very good defense.I guess carter is the better player with your logic

I never said that some weren’t luck, some were but it does show that even with luck he has some knowledge on the bases and isn’t as bad as carter on the bases, it wasn’t to show that he was some sort of triple hitting machine which everyone knows he’s not. But it shows that just because your slow as hell doesn’t mean that you stop at second on a ball in the gap. I can see that he’s never hit more than 1 triple a season, get got lucky where he hit the ball but most guys like him would just stroll into second but with some base running knowledge he knew that if he was aggressive enough he could get to 3rd on well played balls. The not staying at 2nd and knowing you can get to third is not luck. Before you say any player can do that which they could but they don’t

I agree that getting on base is important but what your saying is that you would rather have carter than someone like starlin Castro then, castro pretty much had less of everything other than batting average and he’s a bad second basemen and shortstop but not a single team would want carter over Castro in their lineup and there’s a reason for that

Not sure why you’d bring up Castro. He wasn’t released by the Astros so they could keep Gattis. Going from 11 triples to zero is actually the definition of a fluke. I don’t care about RBIs at all.

But I’ll play along: Castro is slightly more valuable because he can play 2nd and short, albeit not very well. Castro has some baserunning skills. But Castro isn’t much of a hitter. Carter draws walks and hits homers. His skillset tends to age better than that of Castro.

Gattis’ sole value is in his ability to play catcher – even though he’s no good back there. There is a bit of value in being even a bad catcher. But Gattis doesn’t have any ability to get on base, and the swing-and-miss in his game is as profound as Carter’s.

How many of those homeruns over the last two years put the Brewers ahead or tied the game? If he were in the AL and served as a DH, what would his WAR be and what type of salary would he expect to receive based on that WAR?

His WAR would be about the same; his terrible defense would disappear but the positional adjustment for being a full-time DH would probably even that out, unless his defense is truly atrocious, which it appears to be. Even a bad firs baseman is more valuable than a full-time DH, until that bad first baseman gets REALLY bad. Carter appears to be there. Carter only really does two things well – draws walks and hits homers – but that’s the skillset of a useful DH.

I think this could be a sign of keeping Ryan Braun. Rumors have been out there for a couple of years now of him moving to first base. It would definitely help with some of his past health concerns. It would also open up another outfield spot for what is becoming a position of depth for the crew.

I’m not saying a trade is out of the question, I’m just saying that’s what this move could mean for the future. However, the package the Brewers might receive in return for Braun might not be enough to for them to accept. I think Braun is more valuable to the Brewers by staying more than being traded. The Brewers would have to be blown away by a return, and I’m not too sure that will happen. There’s a lot on the table.

Well he’s essentially handcuffed the Brewers to two teams with his approved trade list. That being said if they can’t find what they want there’s really no need to trade him. Sure he can drive the boat but that’s what he’s essentially doing right now.

Wow gone are the days where HR and RBIs were what you were paid for. Brian Kenny is so happy right now. With that said the guy can mash. And strike out. Someone will take a flier on him as dh and tell him to only focus on hitting. And a new role may help.

Jays should take him on the cheap and platoon him with Smoak if they don’t resign EE. His D can’t be any worse than EE. I’ll take the 40 bombs and 90-100 RBI. Why don’t guys like this work their asses off to improve their D? Work all winter prima donnas. Take thousands of ground balls and throws.

He is a switch hitter but this would be an unconventional platoon. I would have Carter play against righties so he gets the bulk of ABs. Smoak against lefties and a late inning defensive replacement. Against lefties Carter becomes an all or nothing bat off the bench. But I sure hope the Jays come up with a better solution at 1B.

The other thing to think about is how big Time power guys have went to Toronto Later in their careers and blossomed Bautista ee he’s got the power if they can work their magic and raise his obp batting average by like 20 points all his other issues mainly defense baserunning could be another great buy low candidate.

I’m disappointed but not a huge shock. His obp was good enough and he played great at 1st. If you are are a brewers fan and want to see competitive ball gonna have to travel to the minors over the next few years. 2020 watch out. We are going to be back but til then garbage on the field besides those few young guys who may or may not be here by 2020

You need to watch for realistic goals. They will be good before 2020, but be patient. There is already young talent coming up, and most of the top prospects will arrive by 2018. Even in 2018 they could get a wild card.

The Brewers have spent the past decade as the example of how not to be a successful, small market team. How do you produce Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Ricky Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and Yovanni Gallardo in a 3 year time frame, still have a stacked enough farm system to trade for CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, and end up with only 1 Division Title and 1 Wild Card when all’s said and done?

They literally have nothing to lose except profit margin. Payroll will be bottom 5 again this year. And if they trade Braun? Pssht. An offseason without any FA signings would be a failure. They can trade him in July or even if they can’t they won’t be giving up any on-field resources.

There’s no telling when they get good again. They were only good enough to win 6 playoff games in 2 appearances over the last 33 years.

I don’t care if Chris Carter plays 1B. I just care that they put MLB players on the field. If Braun’s traded the Brewers should be the pick for 30th place. Probably even if he isn’t. Those SPs haven’t been consistent over multiple seasons and there’s little but A ballers behind them.

I grew up with this team and have followed them for 20 years, but I think I’m one year away from my emotional attachment dwindling to nothing. I probably watched less than 20 baseball games last year and I don’t know if I watched any Brewers games. Usually it was 50 Brewer games and ~30 others. Every Brewer game had the thrill of spring training and literally couldn’t hold my attention for a half inning.

Obviously you haven’t heard about Josh Hader. Only ‘A ball’ players my ass. Do you even realize how good their minors are? Many experts picked the Brewers to lose close 100 games last year, and they exceeded expectations. Since you didn’t watch any Brewers games you probably don’t know how good GM David Stearns has been for this team. Have you heard about Jonathan Villar or Junior Guerra? This is a very young team that is getting better. But, you can sit in a corner and cry that you don’t have a home run to cheer about instead of winning. You don’t deserve an opinion if you don’t even watch.

Hard to believe that Carter’s only 29. This being said, he’s exactly the type of one dimensional player who could head to Japan for a few years, rack up a ton of yen and home runs, and finagle it into a decent big league contract.