The x-prize cup should be for the teams that failed to get the X-prize, so that they can show off thier hardware, teams effort, and so that thoasands of people can be amazed at the sight of teams competing when thier rockets lauch. whilst the x-prize cup is a great idea, i think that a higher goal should also be set, alongside with the X-cup, for the teams willing to go for it

i think the next logical step, if we are following the mercury astronauts for example, would be an orbital flight path. Getting humans into orbit is 'pretty' hard.

I agree, an intercontinental hop prize would be awesome, but I think the ship should be required to carry at least 10 passengers. That seems like a good start to what would be a high-speed shuttle service for those who need or can easily afford it (hopefully there will be lots of people who can). I haven't done the math, but you can get from California to Japan in like 1 1/2 hours or so at Mach 10.

I think that the next logical step up from the X-Prize would be a cheap to-orbit vehicle.

The reason that the X-Prize only requres a small sub-orbital hop is because it would be unreasonable to expect a tiny start-up company to go to orbit in the first place, let alone cheaply. Now granted, you can do some things on a sub-orbital flight, like launch micro-satelites or get somplace very quickly, but overall they are not as versitle as an orbital flight would be. You can't go to a space station, you only have about three minutes of weightlesness, and there's only so much that can be done in a 15-minute time frame.

Now that some of the serious X-Prize competitors have the sounding rocket infrastructure in place, let's go to the next step. By a reasonable date (2012 perhaps), launch a three-person space vehicle into orbit, return it, and fly it again within 14 days without changing more than 10% of the non-propellant mass; no government support, either. This would be the next logical level, going from Mercury Redstone to Mercury Atlas.

After that? Next in line would be something along the lines of Gemini/Vokshod. Build a vehicle that can go into space, change its orbital plane, dock with a station, and allow EVA activity. Private space stations, here we come! After that, how does Apollo/Zond sound? Build a vehicle that can, upon entering space, go for TLI, enter lunar orbit, close to within about 6 miles of the surface, and get back home. Next comes a lander! Of course, this final Apollo-equivalent would/could not be achived until around 2025, but with the right motivation, who knows?

Where to go from there? Who knows, sky's the limit!

_________________"Yes, that series of words I just said made perfect sense!"
-Professor Hubert Farnsworth

i fully agree with senior von braun, it seems to me that a orbital flight path would be the next logical step, i think that a controlled orbital "hop" as it was so called is a great idea but i think the teams are already doing that...

orbital flight is the way to go, if anyone here has seen "from earth to the moon" by tom hanks it was NASA's next logical step. The teams would have already made an reusable launch vechicle, now all they have to do is addd an orbiter to the vechicle and poof! however i believe that they should be able to replace up to 35 % of the vehicle's non propellant mass (due to current technology's thermal protection system's limitation)

The date 2025 sounds reasonible IF interest in this field of cheap space flight continues, i in all honestly HOPE that it damn well does, cause im damn tired of sitting here on Terre firma.

oops, that guest post was mine, must have forgotten to log in. after the moon, i say a ship to mars, or a permanent base/colony on the moon for either private mining or as a celestial amusement park. just imagine a roller coaster at 1/6 gravity...

I still maintain that the interchangeable non-propellant mass should be kept to at most 20%. The whole point of that rule is to encourage the vehicle to be totally or almost totally reusable, and therefore the makers should be encoraged to recycle the heat shield, definately a challenge.

If the contest were started in 2004, I'd give 'em untill 2020 to get a vehicle ready, plenty of time, especially if the reward were jacked up to around $15 million. Unfortunately, I won't recive my Ph.D untill 2017, so I suppose I'd have to compete in the next Gemini-like prize.

Once the commercial operators conquer the suborbital market, it shouldn't be that much more of an obsticle to get to orbit. Well, there's still a lot of hurdles actually, but I'm confident in these guys' ability.

_________________"Yes, that series of words I just said made perfect sense!"
-Professor Hubert Farnsworth