ANALYSIS: Primary challenge real for NKY's Massie

Dec. 26, 2013

Chamber of Commerce President Steve Stevens is considering a primary run. / Provided

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U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Vanceburg, is a tea party favorite.

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When the top business leader in the most populated part of your district says he might run against you, you’ve got a problem.

That’s the situation in which Republican Congressman Thomas Massie now finds himself. On Wednesday, longtime Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce President Steve Stevens said he’s exploring a run against Massie in the May primary.

In an even more troubling sign for the first-term congressman, the announcement was met with a standing ovation from more than 100 business and political leaders, mostly fellow Republicans, at the Chamber’s annual end-of-year luncheon.

“He wants to make a real difference for the community, and we want him to,” said one business leader in attendance.

None of the business leaders interviewed for this column wanted to speak on the record, since Stevens has not officially entered the race.

The Taylor Mill resident is only testing the waters: Over the next month, he’ll gauge his support and see how much money he can raise not only in Northern Kentucky, but across the 24-county 4th Congressional District.

But exploratory campaigns often result in actual campaigns. And Stevens is nothing if not cautious; he would not have made such an announcement without a fair amount of support – and money – lined up.

An executive at the 1,700-member NKY Chamber for 20 years, Stevens is also plugged into the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, where he’s served on committees over the years.

Following the tea party-engineered government shutdown in October, the U.S. Chamber said it plans to play a “vigorous” role in electing more moderate candidates to Congress in the 2014 midterm elections.

Business community feeling slighted by Massie

It isn’t unusual for a first-term public official to draw opposition: incumbents are generally the most vulnerable their first time out.

But there is an unusual – and widespread – amount of dissatisfaction with Massie that’s been brewing among the Northern Kentucky business community since he was elected in November 2012.

He got off on the wrong foot right away by moving his local field office out of the Chamber building in Fort Mitchell and across Buttermilk Pike to a building owned by developer Matth Toebben, a big backer of tea party candidates. Massie might have gotten a better deal on rent, but it cost him goodwill with the Chamber.

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His predecessor, Geoff Davis, kept an office in the Chamber building, and he or his top staffers met monthly with Chamber leaders to discuss issues important to the region. Those meetings don’t happen with Massie or his staff, business leaders say.

Massie was already something of an outsider to begin with: He’s the first person from outside Boone, Campbell or Kenton Counties to represent the 4th Congressional District in 25 years. He lives in Lewis County, southeast of Maysville.

The Northern Kentucky business community has grown accustomed to having a close relationship with its congressman, but business leaders say Massie hasn’t worked to build relationships here and doesn’t seek the region’s input.

Nor does he work the political circuit the way his predecessors did: Jim Bunning and Geoff Davis were fixtures at every political event of consequence, but a Massie sighting is much more rare.

“He’s showed up to a few Chamber things, but I don’t feel like he truly represents us,” one Chamber leader told me.

Massie is something of a contrarian, which earned him the support of the tea party movement in 2012. But when it comes to governing, business leaders believe that approach is holding the region back on major issues such as the Brent Spence Bridge replacement.

After just a few months in office, Politico dubbed Massie “Mr. No” for the number of bills he voted against. He’s also alienated House Speaker John Boehner: Three months after Boehner held a campaign fundraiser for him, Massie helped orchestrate an unsuccessful attempt to oust the West Chester Republican from leadership.

But the very things that raise eyebrows among the Northern Kentucky business community make Massie a hero in the eyes of the tea party movement, which remains a potent force in Northern Kentucky politics and elsewhere across the district.

In a far-flung district, money will matter a lot

And ultimately, the only thing that matters is votes.

Massie had a considerable amount of support from Northern Kentucky in the May 2012 Republican primary: He garnered 10,676 votes in Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties, more than half the 19,689 votes he won across the 24-county district. He had broad support from the tea party movement here.

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Republicans Alecia Webb-Edgington of Kenton County and Gary Moore of Boone County split the GOP establishment vote, winning a combined 12,520 votes in Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties.

The three counties account for more than half of the 230,000 registered Republicans in the 24-county 4th District.

Northern Kentucky might be the most populated part of the 4th District – but it isn’t the only part.

Massie has spent the past year traveling across the entire 24-county district, building a base of support outside Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties. A big question mark about Stevens is whether he can also build support elsewhere in the district.

The district has half a million registered voters and covers five media markets: Cincinnati, Louisville, Lexington and Huntington, W.Va. It’s the most expensive congressional district in the state in which to run a campaign.

In the 2012 primary, Massie raised $309,000 – but super PACs spent more than $600,000 on his behalf.

As of Sept. 30, Massie had raised $261,000 for his re-election. If his last race is any indication, however, dollars can be expected to pour in from outside the region and the state.

Should Stevens ultimately run against Massie, the race could become a test of whether the power in the 4th District has shifted outside of Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties.

One thing is certain, however: The business community here is not likely to concede that without a fight. ⬛