The US value chain is sliced up globally, which limits possibilities for protectionist policies without hurting domestic US firms. US firms are especially involved in three Mexican industries, with the motor vehicle industry being the most prominent one.

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Like the rest of the eurozone, the Dutch economy will grow faster in 2015 than it did in the year just past. But growth will remain low, and unemployment high. Low inflation puts the ECB under increasing pressure to start large scale quantitative easing.