Political regret you just have to live with

Psychological shift: there are signs of a strong “regret” factor among Leave voters

November 16, 2016

So why did so many political professionals fail to predict both Brexit and the US election result?

Both are political earthquake events. Both seemed to result in counter-intuitive outcomes. In both cases, what seemed to be the safe choice was rejected for the riskier option.

Behavioural scientists have already found a rich source of raw material for their research in the Brexit vote and will undoubtedly find a lot more in Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US presidential election.

Normally, behavioural science would expect the “status quo” factor to be the strongest influence on decisions such as these. They say there is an innate bias in humans to stick with the familiar which, after nearly 50 years of membership of the European Union, should have meant that remaining within the EU would be the majority choice.

But research conducted during the Brexit campaign by the UK’s BrainJuicer research team found that, when asked to give an instant response to the question of whether they favoured leaving or remaining, 54 per cent said Leave and 46 per cent said Remain.

They say that there is clear evidence that some Leave voters are going through what they call “experienced regret”, psychological punishment for a bad decision in the past.

So, why the instinct to “Leave” rather than “Remain”? Why was the status quo effect in favour of remaining not working?

Behavioural scientists suggest a few reasons.

One was that, for older voters who overwhelmingly voted Leave, the familiarity they longed for was the pre-EU days.

A second was that the UK public had never been convinced of the benefits of being in the European Union. The popular press image of the EU had always been intensely negative. With the benefits of membership always under-played, the public’s instinctive sense was that a lot had been lost from membership.

And the most important thing people felt had been lost was “control”.

Tom Ewing, senior director of BrainJuicer Labs, wrote in a blog that the Leave campaign’s “take back control” slogan was the most effective of the campaign because it tapped into a general community feeling of loss of British control to the EU.

“In archetypal terms, this took their strongest story – rebirth, about learning from mistakes and starting over – and turning it into something that felt positive, dynamic, and forward looking (rebirth stories can tend to have a nostalgic component),” he wrote. “With a powerful narrative in play, all Leave needed was the message discipline to continually reinforce it – which they had.”

Chicago University behavioural economist Richard Thaler reinforces this finding. He said in a recent interview with MarketWatch that, financially, leaving the EU didn’t make sense. This was the overwhelming conclusion of standard economic analysis.

But, he said, few voters would be making the kind of calculations that oped writers in the Wall Street Journal or the Economist were doing to reach this conclusion. He said Leave voters were acting instinctively.

“Most voters aren’t really thinking about it in a very analytical way… The people behind the leave campaign were voting with their guts. There’s no spreadsheet. This is much like a divorce without a prenup. You’re voting to leave, and we’ll take care of all the financial details later.”

But behavioural scientists are now also looking at post-Brexit vote psychology.

And they detect something different: They believe that there are signs of a strong “regret” factor among Leave voters.

They found that, in the days immediately after the vote, there was a high level of internet traffic around issues such as the benefits of UK membership of the EU and the potential costs of leaving it – significantly higher than before the referendum vote.

They say that there is clear evidence that some Leave voters are going through what they call “experienced regret”, psychological punishment for a bad decision in the past.

They say that the punishment for this is usually that the individual does not make the same mistake again.

But in the case of the Brexit vote, they are unlikely to get the chance.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15