The context — before you listen to the clip — is that
Europe feels as if it is in thrall to Russia: Troops from Russia
are meddling in Ukraine; Putin is threatening to cut off gas
supplies to the West; and the other European countries have
imposed sanctions on Russia in an attempt to get Putin to back
off.

At the same time, Russia is in a state of economic
collapse. It has rampant inflation, and its oil economy is in
tatters as the price per barrel is far below what Russia needs to
drive growth. Russian banks are on state life support.

So Russia is both roaring louder than it has in years and
becoming more enfeebled than it has been in years.

I see Russia as a country in
decline. It's a one-crop economy; two-thirds of its exports are
energy. It has a terrible demographic problem; the number of
Russians is shrinking. It has a huge health problem; the average
Russian male dies at about age 61. And it's got such enormous
corruption that it can't reform itself. So I think it's a country
that's seriously in decline.

Putin's adventurism, such as we've seen in Ukraine, which has led
to Western sanctions, cuts him off from the sources of Western
technology that they really need for modernisation and he's
turning Russia into China's gas station. So I'm very pessimistic
about the future of Russia.

But before you breathe a sigh of relief, consider Nye's caveat:

... sometimes declining countries are more risk-accepting and
dangerous. Look at Austria and Hungary a century ago.

He's referring to the brink of World War I, which was triggered
by Austria-Hungary's invasion of Serbia following the
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. The
conflict killed 16 million people.