Energy Market Analysis - 24-03-2017

Near-curve gas prices moved down yesterday afternoon as demand levels are expected to fall in the coming days and systems across Europe were comfortable. A rise in coal prices restricted downward movement on the far-curve with further bullish pressure provided by a strengthening Pound.

A weaker demand outlook for next week helped prompt power contracts shed from their price on Thursday. A rise in coal did little to push contracts on the far-curve higher, although a short term drop in wind generation limited the bearish movement on the Day-Ahead contract.

Market Open

Market Open

Gas contracts have recorded further losses this morning as Norwegian flows have jumped to 340mcm, compared to the 328mcm average at the start of the week. Warmer temperatures will also weigh on demand levels next week and the LNG outlook remains comfortable with 6 deliveries expected to arrive in the UK next month.

Milder weather and an expected rise in renewable generation has contributed to small losses at the front of the power curve this morning, although the downward movement is not as significant as that displayed by gas. Further out, prices are generally stable with increases on the coal market providing some support.

Brent 1st-nearby prices have posted a small loss and trade around $50.7/b. The market is rather stable at present ahead of the meeting in Kuwait between OPEC and non-OPEC member, with investors optimistic in regards to output cut renewals.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 42.63ppt and £42.33/MWh, respectively.

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