editorNPR Digital Services RSS Generator 0.94Ron Elving is Senior Editor and Correspondent on the Washington Desk for NPR News, where he is frequently heard as a news analyst and writes regularly for NPR.org.He was previously the political editor for USA Today and for Congressional Quarterly. He has been a Distinguished Visiting Professional in Residence at American University, where he is now an adjunct professor. In this role, Elving received American University's 2016 University Faculty Award for Outstanding Teaching in an Adjunct Appointment. He has also taught at George Mason and Georgetown University.He has been published by the Brookings Institution and the American Political Science Association. He has contributed chapters on Obama and the media and on the media role in Congress to the academic studies Obama in Office 2011, and Rivals for Power, 2013. Ron's earlier book, Conflict and Compromise: How Congress Makes the Law, was published by Simon & Schuster and is also a Touchstone paperback.During his tenure as theNPR Digital Services RSS Generator 0.94Ron ElvingSat, 26 Nov 2016 12:33:49 +0000Ron Elvinghttp://kios.org
Ron ElvingWe are all in transition these days. Washington is getting used to the idea of a new and very different president, who is getting used to the idea of Washington.One thing we are learning about the mind of President-elect Donald Trump is that his train of thought rarely runs on a single track.Consider the Cabinet announcements this week, dramatically at odds with those of the previous week. Trump named South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as United Nations ambassador and school choice advocate Betsy DeVos as secretary of education.Critics will no doubt dissect these choices, including the curious fit between the resumes and the new duties of Haley and Ben Carson, who has been discussed as secretary of housing and urban development. DeVos will displease teacher unions, among others. But all are mainstream GOP picks who might have been named by any new Republican president, or by the party's national chairman, Reince Priebus, who happens to be the new White House chief of staff.And all standA Washington Transition For Trump, And For The Rest Of Ushttp://kios.org/post/washington-transition-trump-and-rest-us
86714 as http://kios.orgFri, 25 Nov 2016 11:00:00 +0000A Washington Transition For Trump, And For The Rest Of UsRon ElvingWith the defeat of Hillary Clinton and the election of Donald Trump, Democrats may feel they have hit bottom.The new power structure in Washington will combine a Republican president and a Republican Congress for the first time since 2006. Throw in pending and prospective vacancies on the Supreme Court, and you can see why many progressives consider this the worst-case scenario.But it is not.Consider what would have happened if the split decision last Tuesday had been reversed, with Trump winning the popular vote and Clinton the Electoral College (instead of the other way around). Would Trump have accepted the outcome? Would his core supporters have accepted it? That was the nightmare conjured by Trump's refusal, in the final debate, to commit to accepting the Election Day results.But there is another scenario that was always more likely, and it, too, would augur even harsher circumstances for Democrats in the years ahead.Let's say Clinton had won both the popular and the electoralWas Clinton Loss The Worst-Case Scenario For Democrats? No, Probably Nothttp://kios.org/post/was-clinton-loss-worst-case-scenario-democrats-no-probably-not
86364 as http://kios.orgTue, 15 Nov 2016 15:46:00 +0000Was Clinton Loss The Worst-Case Scenario For Democrats? No, Probably NotRon ElvingWhen American voters must choose a new president, reaction tends to rule. Given a choice between continuity and contrast, we favor contrast — even when the retiring incumbent leaves office with relatively high public approval.This sometimes is called the pendulum effect: The farther the pendulum swings in one direction, the farther it is likely to swing back. In physics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction; in politics, the pushback sometimes can be disproportionate.The rule has obvious applications to candidate personalities and political parties, but it also relates to the long waves of history, and the most profound changes in our national life.Thus we have Barack Obama, elected in 2008 largely because he offered such a dramatic divergence from two terms of George W. Bush — who himself had been a stark contrast to Bill Clinton.This is more than just a habit — it is closer to being our nature. The country chooses more than a person or a party to occupy the Oval Office, itTrump Is Another Republican Striking A Blow For The Way Things Used To Behttp://kios.org/post/trump-another-republican-striking-blow-way-things-used-be
86177 as http://kios.orgThu, 10 Nov 2016 09:40:00 +0000Trump Is Another Republican Striking A Blow For The Way Things Used To BeRon ElvingWhen Donald Trump came down the escalator in June of 2015 in the tower he named for himself in Manhattan, few of us who do politics for a living took his off-the-cuff announcement for president seriously.But the past 17 months have been a lesson to all of us who flattered ourselves — as campaign pros, polling pros and media pros — that we knew more about politics than he did.What have we learned? That Trump was being taken very seriously, indeed, by the people who ultimately mattered: voters.Not all the voters, surely. It is not yet clear that he even won the popular vote, as counting continues in some states and Hillary Clinton might still win that metric. Much of the country woke up the day after in disbelief at the news of his election, even as financial markets were reeling from a night of selloffs around the world.Yet Trump racked up a clear majority in the Electoral College. And he did it by winning the Anglo white vote (58 percent of it, according to the exit polls). AmongTrump Confounds The Pros, Connects With Just The Right Votershttp://kios.org/post/trump-confounds-pros-connects-just-right-voters
86139 as http://kios.orgWed, 09 Nov 2016 12:56:00 +0000Trump Confounds The Pros, Connects With Just The Right VotersRon ElvingPolls are not the only place people look to for guidance to Election Day outcomes. Lots of people believe in bellwethers.The first two things to know about bellwethers is that there's no letter "a" in the word, and bellwethers don't have anything to do with predicting the weather. The name refers to the neutered rams that shepherds use to guide flocks in the right direction. The wether trots along when the shepherd calls, the bell at his neck jangles, and the other sheep come ambling after him.In the political usage, the bellwether is a state that signals the direction of the whole flock. Folks once said "as Maine goes, so goes the nation." That nostrum was quite popular until 1936, when Maine was one of just two states voting against incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt, who joked: "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont."Missouri had a near-perfect record in the 20th century, voting with the winner every time with the exception of 1956. Lately, however, the Show Me State has moved ratherOmens, Harbingers And Bellwethers — A Guide To The Election 'Guides'http://kios.org/post/omens-harbingers-and-bellwethers-guide-election-guides
86097 as http://kios.orgTue, 08 Nov 2016 14:29:00 +0000Omens, Harbingers And Bellwethers — A Guide To The Election 'Guides'Ron ElvingCopyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit MARTIN, HOST: We mentioned that we've been collecting songs from you that sum up how you've been feeling about this election, and there is one song that has been submitted more than any others. In fact, more than all the others combined. And I guess it's fitting coming out of that conversation about election anxiety. (SOUNDBITE OF SONG, "IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD") R.E.M.: (Singing) It's the end of the world, as we know it. It's the end of the world as we know it. It's the end of the world as we know, and I feel fine. Six o'clock TV hour, don't get caught in foreign towers, slash... MARTIN: I didn't pick this. You did. That's "The End Of The World As We Know It" by R.E.M. And Ron Elving still with us. Thanks so much. Here's hoping that we will feel fine by Wednesday. RON ELVING, BYLINE: Some people will, some finer than others no doubt. MARTIN: That's right. So we've been talking a lot this hour about the unique features of this election. I wantedFinal Thoughts As Voters Prepare To Head To The Pollshttp://kios.org/post/final-thoughts-voters-prepare-head-polls
86030 as http://kios.orgSun, 06 Nov 2016 22:19:00 +0000Final Thoughts As Voters Prepare To Head To The PollsRon ElvingCopyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit MARTIN, HOST: Let's go back to NPR's Ron Elving, still with us in studio here in Washington, D.C. Ron, briefly, what is the biggest issue for the campaigns now? RON ELVING, BYLINE: The biggest issue for the campaigns now is turnout. We have had months of talking about issues such as immigration and trade and national security. But at this point, with all the arguments having been made in the debates in the past - three of them between the two presidential candidates - with all of that, it comes down to turnout. You've got to get your people to the polls. You've got to make sure that everyone who might be for you has the opportunity to make their voice heard. MARTIN: And what about early voting? Early voting has been going on for some time now. Is there any info that we can glean from that? ELVING: We know that more people are voting early than ever before. Thirty-seven states provide for it, plus the District of Columbia. We know that more than 25The Final 48 Hours Before Election Dayhttp://kios.org/post/final-48-hours-election-day
86037 as http://kios.orgSun, 06 Nov 2016 22:19:00 +0000The Final 48 Hours Before Election DayRon ElvingHere's a little information that Americans have usually been able to ignore.It's about the Electoral College, a uniquely American institution that's been with us from the beginning and that's occasionally given us fits.Typically, the Electoral College meets and does its thing a month or so after the election, and few people even notice or care. Once in a while, though, people do notice and do care — a lot.Will 2016 be one of those years?It's not something reasonable people would hope for, but it cannot be ruled out.First, the basics.How It WorksDespite popular belief, the U.S. Constitution does not provide for the popular election of the American president. It provides for popular election of presidential electors. Each candidate who qualifies for a given state's ballot must designate certain individuals who will serve as his or her electors if that candidate wins the popular vote in that state.When each state certifies a winner of its overall popular vote, that winner is entitled toHow Does The Electoral College Work, And Is It Fair?http://kios.org/post/how-does-electoral-college-work-and-it-fair
86002 as http://kios.orgSun, 06 Nov 2016 10:00:00 +0000How Does The Electoral College Work, And Is It Fair?Ron ElvingRepublican presidential nominee Donald Trump had one job in his third and final debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton: break out.He needed to break out from the narrative that is fast enveloping his campaign — the way evening overtakes the late afternoon.He needed a breakout performance showing himself to be disciplined and knowledgeable enough to be president.And he needed to break through the lid that has settled atop his sizable base of strong supporters, containing that bloc at or below 40 percent in virtually all scientific polls done since the last debate on Oct. 9.The great majority of Trump's supporters have been steadfast through a series of campaign shocks that would have scuttled more conventional candidacies. That includes his videotaped talk about his sexual forays and the accusations of multiple women who say it was not all just talk.But even as the Trump rank and file has held the line, by and large, its numbers in recent months have not grown. And the electionTrump's Attempt To Refocus Campaign Gets Obscured By One Blinding Final Debate Momenthttp://kios.org/post/trumps-attempt-refocus-campaign-gets-obscured-one-blinding-final-debate-moment
85359 as http://kios.orgThu, 20 Oct 2016 08:50:00 +0000Trump's Attempt To Refocus Campaign Gets Obscured By One Blinding Final Debate MomentRon ElvingTraditionally, candidates do not complain about an election being rigged until they have actually lost. But 2016 is not a traditional year, and Donald Trump is no traditional candidate.Allegations of media conspiracy, partisan collusion and Election Day shenanigans have become a staple of Trump's rally speeches and Twitter blasts. In his widely quoted tweet on Sunday, he was characteristically blunt: "The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary — but also at many polling places — SAD."Doubling down on Monday, Trump tweeted: "Of course there is large scale voter fraud happening on and before election day."Suggestions of dark doings at the ballot box, hinted at in earlier phases of the campaign, have become a central theme for Trump in October — especially since accusations of sexual assault threatened to overwhelm his campaign. Surrogates such as Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich thumped that tub over the weekend; and after runningDark Talk Of A Rigged Election Signals New Emphasis For Trump Campaignhttp://kios.org/post/dark-talk-rigged-election-signals-new-emphasis-trump-campaign
85277 as http://kios.orgTue, 18 Oct 2016 09:01:00 +0000Dark Talk Of A Rigged Election Signals New Emphasis For Trump CampaignRon ElvingThe second debate between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton promised a great deal and managed to deliver on much of it. But those expecting either to see Trump knocked out of the race or to see him dramatically reverse the current campaign momentum went away disappointed.It could be said this meeting had the highest stakes ever for any single debate, even as it set new lows for the level of personal attacks.Many questions hovered over the proceedings at Washington University in St. Louis: How would Trump deal with the fallout from a videotape released Friday in which he brags about treating women in ways that amount to sexual assault? Would he denounce the dozens of notable Republicans who have deserted his cause in the past two days? Would he be contrite and seek the voters' forgiveness?Or would Trump fight back with allusions to the sex scandals of Clinton's husband, Bill Clinton, when he was president? Just before debate time, Trump held an impromptu newsRound 2 Of Clinton-Trump Proves Combative — But Provides No Knockouthttp://kios.org/post/round-2-clinton-trump-proves-combative-provides-no-knockout
85002 as http://kios.orgMon, 10 Oct 2016 09:47:00 +0000Round 2 Of Clinton-Trump Proves Combative — But Provides No KnockoutRon ElvingLittle has gone as expected in this extraordinary presidential cycle, so we should have known Tuesday's vice presidential debate would have a twist or two in it, too.Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence each represented three clients in their 90-minute debate from Farmville, Va. The two former attorneys pleaded the case for their respective principals (Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump), to be sure, but also for their respective parties and for themselves.It may be said that both succeeded in all three pursuits, with perhaps the clearest success on behalf of their own cases. One of the two will soon be vice president, placing him the proverbial heartbeat away. The other will automatically enter the conversation the next time his party needs a presidential nominee.It is not entirely clear which of these prospects might be the most desirable at this moment in history.In this regard, Pence, whose job of defending Trump on Tuesday night was both complex and thankless, mayVP Debate Throws Another Curve Into 2016's Long And Winding Roadhttp://kios.org/post/vp-debate-throws-another-curve-2016s-long-and-winding-road
84827 as http://kios.orgWed, 05 Oct 2016 09:01:00 +0000VP Debate Throws Another Curve Into 2016's Long And Winding RoadRon ElvingAmid the clamor of the battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, two much lower-key fellows who are also nominees for national office will take the stage Tuesday night in rural Virginia and try to be heard.Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence will talk about policy and their competing visions for America. They will almost surely offer more substance on issues than we heard in the first debate between the presidential nominees a week earlier.But any news that comes from Tuesday's Battle of the Twos will most likely be something one or the other says about Trump or Clinton. We can expect both running mates to arrive bearing briefing books full of accusations on emails, taxes, foundations, beauty queens, White House infidelities and foreign entanglements.How much of all that ammo gets unloaded may depend on which campaign wants to fire first. But going after the ticket's headliner has been "mission critical" for running mates since long before these TV debates began. Not aVice Presidential Debates Have Mattered Before. Here's A Look Backhttp://kios.org/post/vice-presidential-debates-have-mattered-heres-look-back
84795 as http://kios.orgTue, 04 Oct 2016 10:41:00 +0000Vice Presidential Debates Have Mattered Before. Here's A Look BackRon ElvingYou could see the contrast in the eyes of the respective candidates' spokespersons, surrogates and family members after the first presidential debate of 2016 had wrapped.As always, earnest efforts were made on both sides to claim victory — even insist on it — after the nationally televised clash between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump."Trump was especially strong on the issues in the first 45 minutes," said former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski on CNN.Yet a general and clear consensus formed quickly among the snap pollsters, focus groups, reporters, commentators and TV panelists. And it did not favor Trump.In sum: Clinton projected more of what she wanted than Trump, who did not strike the contrast or meet the expectations set up by his own campaign.What was less clear was whether the voters got what they wanted from the debate. Did they learn what they lacked about the candidates? Did the undecided gain some guidance in their decisionWho Got What They Wanted From The First Clinton-Trump Debate?http://kios.org/post/who-got-what-they-wanted-first-clinton-trump-debate
84523 as http://kios.orgTue, 27 Sep 2016 09:00:00 +0000Who Got What They Wanted From The First Clinton-Trump Debate?Ron ElvingDonald Trump has provided the political world with many moving moments over the past year, but none quite like the whiplash mood swing between his daytime and nighttime performances in Mexico City and Phoenix on Wednesday.In the daylight hours, Trump struck his most presidential pose to date with a solemn (if somewhat grumpy) reading of prepared remarks at a news conference alongside Mexico's President Enrique Peña Nieto. That somber event, inside the Mexican presidential residence, epitomized the more moderate image Trump has pursued on immigration issues over the past 10 days.But as night fell in Phoenix, back in the U.S.A., Trump mounted the stage in prime time and quickly caught fire. He poured forth an hourlong harangue against all things alien, highlighting the lurid crimes of a handful of illegal immigrants as if to define the character of millions. He also promised to build "a beautiful wall" across the entire U.S.-Mexico border and create a "deportation task force" that wouldTrump Makes Nice In Mexico, Talks Tougher Than Ever Just Hours Later In Phoenixhttp://kios.org/post/trump-makes-nice-mexico-talks-tougher-ever-just-hours-later-phoenix
83650 as http://kios.orgThu, 01 Sep 2016 11:40:00 +0000Trump Makes Nice In Mexico, Talks Tougher Than Ever Just Hours Later In PhoenixRon ElvingThe current presidential campaign may seem unlike any in recent memory, but most of the techniques and strategies we have seen so far hearken back to the politics of the past.For example, few would dispute that the past week has been dominated by "mudslinging," the practice of tossing accusations and epithets at one's opponent. Mudslinging is always regretted and decried, yet it invariably returns with each election cycle.The idea of throwing dirt at a rival is ancient, if not prehistoric. There is even a Latin phrase for it — Fortiter calumniari, aliquia adhaerebit – which means if you throw enough, stuff some will stick.But most of the political language we use now is far more recent in origin and has its roots in the American experience.Take for example our love for the unlovely word "stump." We all talk about "stump speaking" and going "on the stump" and "stumping" around the country.This one goes back to a missionary's account of life among the American Indians in the early 18thWhat Should We Call This Kind of Presidential Campaign, Anyway?http://kios.org/post/what-should-we-call-kind-presidential-campaign-anyway
83467 as http://kios.orgSun, 28 Aug 2016 10:00:00 +0000What Should We Call This Kind of Presidential Campaign, Anyway?Ron ElvingWhen Donald Trump started a national conversation about his regrets the other day, he notably neglected to say just what he regretted."Sometimes in the heat of debate and speaking on a multitude of issues, you don't choose the right words or you say the wrong thing. I have done that. And believe it or not, I regret it — and I do regret it — particularly where it may have caused personal pain."Since Trump read these words from a prepared text in North Carolina, much has been made of his new tone and willingness to soften his message — even though he never actually apologized to anyone or said he was sorry for any particular statement.Many have seen these few sentences as signaling a new phase in the Trump phenomenon. But they may as easily be heard as a slight variation on the theme Trump has sounded from the beginning. In other words: same song, different verse.And the song, of course, is the 1969 Frank Sinatra classic "My Way," which sends an unmistakable message of defiance with theChanneling Sinatra? Trump Says He Has Regrets, But Too Few To Mentionhttp://kios.org/post/channeling-sinatra-trump-says-he-has-regrets-too-few-mention
83313 as http://kios.orgWed, 24 Aug 2016 09:00:00 +0000Channeling Sinatra? Trump Says He Has Regrets, But Too Few To MentionRon Elving Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit NPR.A Pivotal For Week For Donald Trumphttp://kios.org/post/pivotal-week-donald-trump
82627 as http://kios.orgSat, 06 Aug 2016 21:09:00 +0000A Pivotal For Week For Donald TrumpRon ElvingLet's take a step back from the news of the past few days and ask a fundamental question: Why does everything suddenly seem different?Donald Trump, the unsinkable candidate who seemed immune to political consequences while winning Republican presidential primaries month after month, now finds himself with an ailing campaign and a bad case of personal toxicity.Cable TV and other news media are obsessed with fallout within Team Trump and dissension in the Republican Party. When Trump holds a rally or takes to Twitter, half the nation seems to hold its breath — waiting for him to insult someone, snarl at a baby or maybe punt a puppy off the podium.Why? Because the contest has changed, the media context has changed — and Trump has been caught in a confluence of damaging stories.Not the primary anymoreFirst, the contest has changed from a one-party affair to a national test. The long months of partisan infighting, debates, primaries and caucuses — culminating in the nominating convention —Donald Trump Might Be In Real Trouble This Timehttp://kios.org/post/donald-trump-might-be-real-trouble-time
82516 as http://kios.orgThu, 04 Aug 2016 13:37:00 +0000Donald Trump Might Be In Real Trouble This TimeRon ElvingWhen all was said and done, Team Hillary had to be pretty happy. Their four nights in Philadelphia turned out better than almost anyone expected.Thursday night featured an orchestrated symphony of praise for Hillary Clinton and a precision-bombing of her opponent, Donald Trump.Clinton's own remarks at the conclusion will not enter the pantheon of great American prose or political rhetoric. But no one had been reserving a place there. More importantly, she provided a fitting conclusion to the proceedings, meeting her own mark and cutting a convincing figure as the nation's first female president.Think of it this way: She got it done. No, she didn't seem to be having fun doing it. Not half as much as Barack Obama did when setting the table for her the night before (and not to mention her husband, Bill, on Tuesday night). She did not have the magic Michelle Obama flashed on Monday night, when she moved the delegates and set the tone for a winning week.Yet Hillary Clinton's moment was theClinton And The DNC: A Crisis Not Merely Survived, But Transcendedhttp://kios.org/post/clinton-makes-history-clearing-multiple-hurdles-philly-convention
82272 as http://kios.orgFri, 29 Jul 2016 11:28:00 +0000Clinton And The DNC: A Crisis Not Merely Survived, But Transcended