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Blair’s constitution gamble is more political ploy than ‘final settlement’

IT ALL sounds so neat, so democratic: Tony Blair is inviting his citizens to vote on the European constitution. It is almost impolite to criticize such a decision. Who could openly oppose the prospect of a British Agora, where the future of the nation and the future of Europe would be discussed?

On the other hand, academics and politicians across Europe “ring alarm bells”, and warn of a “profound crisis looming on Europe”, as the “constitution risks being killed” by the British.

It is equally hard to contradict those saying Blair’s gambling is dangerous for Europe.

A third respectable argument is that this referendum is the chance to sort out, finally, Britain’s existential doubts about Europe by letting it decide – in or out.

Blair’s melodramatic statement that “it’s time to resolve once and for all whether this country, Britain, wants to be at the centre and heart of decision-making in Europe” is masterfully inducing this idea of a final settlement.

But in fact, I am afraid Blair hasn’t taken into account any of the above arguments when deciding on the referendum. His unbelievable U-turn was generated by an overwhelming desire: that of winning the next elections.

Blair decided to organize a referendum for pragmatic internal political reasons.

He buys one year of peace with an electorate warmed up for the referendum, instigated by the opposition with its all-time best-selling ‘No to a European super-state swallowing Britain’.

He deprives the Tories – whose electoral plans for a probable poll next year are mainly based on Europe-bashing – of their most dangerous weapon, the populist call for a referendum on the constitution.

He can again be offensive in the electoral battle, by fighting for a ‘Yes’ in the referendum, instead of having to defend his corner by countering the enemy’s attacks.

As at present opinion polls indicate that only some 16% of Britons would vote for the constitution, it looks almost impossible for Blair to win this gamble – even though he may win a general election in the meantime.

Is he then prepared to take on his shoulders the responsibility of the UK ‘killing’ the constitution and blocking Europe?

He is probably not. The very clever timing of the referendum (after next year’s likely parliamentary elections in the UK) is supposed to avoid him taking the blame for an eventual crisis in Europe.

That is because Blair wants to give plenty of time to other countries to reject the constitution in a referendum, before the British. After all, if traditional naysayers such as the Danes, or the Irish, or even founding EU members, the Dutch, say ‘No’ to the constitution, would it matter that the British rejected it as well?

Blair is hoping somebody else would open the crisis and some other government leader would face the political reprimand for an eventual defeat.

But is there any chance for Blair to win the referendum?

Opinion polls and front pages of tabloids, the UK’s unelected power, show the constitution is doomed to fall.

In the first place, the Britons do not have a constitution of their own and they don’t think they should. They could say that it is at least unnecessary, if not a bad federalist idea, to have a European constitution.

But at this referendum, Blair’s co-nationals will not vote on a text, drafted by the Convention on the future of the EU and amended by governments’ representatives in Brussels.

It will effectively be a referendum on EU membership. The trouble for the opposition is that they have nothing else to offer: they aggressively oppose the constitution text, but they don’t quite oppose EU membership – not the mainstream Tories, at least.

Their call for a rejection of the constitution risks then being contradicted by them not offering an alternative to it, as they don’t support the real alternative, ie leaving the EU.

It is therefore not impossible – but it would be difficult – for Blair to win the referendum.

But even if he gets (or forces) a ‘Yes’, this is not going to sort out, once and for all, as he said, the UK’s existential problem with Europe.

Britons have already said ‘Yes’ to Europe once, in 1975, when the-then prime minister Harold Wilson called a risky vote on whether the UK should continue being a member of the European Economic Community.

Once cannot say that once they chose to stay in Europe, they were happy and faithful to their choice – far from that. Britain is likely to continue being a thorn in the EU’s side by reluctantly questioning the need for it to go any further and its centuries-long European doubts are sure to persist. But in the event of a ‘Yes’, Blair would win a short peace from the EU’s detractors.

What impact is the decision to hold a referendum in the UK likely to have on the European constitution, as governments’ representatives enter the last phase of negotiations, with a view to adopting it by 17 June?

The poll’s abrupt announcement, on the eve of the final round of talks, is likely to further water down the constitution, as London is set to insist on the “red lines” – tax policy, social policy, foreign policy, on which it wants to keep the national veto.

If any enthusiastic federalist had hoped to introduce more qualified majority voting in the constitution during last-minute negotiations, forget about it. The threat of the British referendum is likely to function as a natural form of self-censorship.

But the announcement is going to stiffen the negotiation position of other member states, as pressure will be mounting on several government leaders to put the constitution to a popular vote.

Jacques Chirac of France must have had a few sleepless nights after Blair’s announcement on Tuesday (20 April). Already in difficulty after calls for a referendum from the Socialist opposition – and even from his prime minister and other prominent party members – the French president will have now less arguments to oppose it.

So forget about anything in the constitution being controversial for France.