Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Electability…

A certain Eric from Des Moines sent this bitch an e-mail requesting my thoughts on the question of electability.

Okay Eric...you asked for it!

Step away from that polling data now.

Go on...do it!Polls asking general election electability questions before any real general election campaigning are the very definition of bullshit. Just look at all the ig’nant shit Democrats managed to cram into the space between New Hampshire and Super Duper Tuesday…ain’t no telling what people will get done by November (wince).

Anyhoo, it is true that the Dems are being über vetted in this contest whilst Senator McCain is enjoying the fruits of his labor. That’s the benefit of closing the party nomination deal while the other side re-configures the rules of the game. But people really need to stop fretting about McCain getting a pass…all fuck ups are being fully documented and will be dusted and polished for reintroduction after Denver.

Cough.

Electability isn’t about polling or stale ass questions asking who a voter trusts more or likes more or would like to have a beer with.

Politics is war and electability is about the conditions on the ground in late October 2008.

If violence in Iraq is contained and McCain can spin that…If the economy is fubar and the Democratic nominee has ideas…

If either nominee picks a Vice President who can’t debate worth a shit…

If we have a harsh summer or a mild fall…

If Congress fucks something up or the Bush administration continues to fuck up….

If a sex/drugs/trade negotiation that doesn’t jive with campaign rhetoric/memo/video/nanny scandal breaks in just the right way at just the right time…

If third party activists are able to uncover/manufacture a sorta-scandal and spin it until you want to hunt them down and shove a swift boat where the sun don’t shine…

Electability is about the ifs and whether a candidate has enough solid enthusiastic support to combat them.

As a crystal ball, this bitch can only look at how each candidate still standing has run their primary campaign. I’m reminded of an incident from my youth when a wee bitch used to play tennis. I lost a match in the third set after winning the second in a cool ass comeback-esque fashion. There I sat, full of drama, trying to get my sulk on by bitching about tie-breakers in general. My coach sat down beside me and told me that if tie-breakers decided tennis matches she’d quit the game. I blinked at her in confusion and she added… “You had three sets to win that match and so did she…there’s nothing to learn from bitching about the tiebreaker and lot you need to improve on from the match.”

I’ve heard the same said of baseball and hockey…and truer words have never been said of politics.

Candidates must achieve their nomination…winners win and there ain’t no Superdelegate way around that shit…but the only electability poll worth shit is the one voters will deal out this November.

6 comments:

In a number of previous posts, you indicate a love of the political process and forwarding ideals and ideas. This post seems to mark a bit of a change:

"Politics is war and electability is about the conditions on the ground in late October 2008."

That said, I agree. Sadly, so. How do you reconcile the cynicism and the idealism when teaching citizenship classes? And, is it even possible to elevate politics in this country after two stolen elections? Moreover, given the past two presidential election cycles, how can we even maintain any of the ideals you teach?

a very nice perspective change from your coach. i still don't understand the importance of polls, if they are bullshit - for the spin? and i've nver been polled about anything, so who are these people who get to say their peice.

Wow, you are so right, there are a lot of factors coming up that we're not dealing with yet. Your post reminds me to step back from the campaign's daily details and take a breather. Thanks, the long view is a relief in some ways.