October 28, 2010

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As polls continue show Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid fighting for his political life in Nevada, the sense that Sen. Chuck Schumer has the edge to become the next majority leader is hardening in New York and Washington.

These types of races - determined by the votes of Senate members, and by secret ballot - are notoriously hard to predict. They also tend to be free-flowing up until the last minute, what with horse-trading and last-minute pledges.

And right now, no senator is willing to give up where their allegiance lies - or profess anything other than confidence in a Reid victory on Tuesday.

That said, Schumer, the Senate's No. 3, is viewed as the favorite right now over Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2, for a range of reasons.

Both Durbin and Schumer have, like their colleagues, insisted they see a Reid victory.

"I told Harry I would not even speculate or speak to one senator in the caucus about this… I’m for Harry," Durbin told POLITICO's Ben Smith at the Alexi Giannoulias-Mark Kirk debate in Illinois on Wednesday night.

Schumer went further in his own debate earlier this week, answering a question about possibly becoming majority leader by simply saying he expects Reid - one of his closest Senate allies and actual friends - will win, and that he's working hard for him.

"There is nobody rooting for Harry Reid to be elected in the senate more than Chuck Schumer," said longtime Schumer adviser Phil Singer. "He's lent both his verbal support, (and) significant financial support" toward that goal, he added.

"That's as much a result of his personal respect for Reid as leader, as his personal affection for him as a friend," he said. Several people who've spoken with Schumer seconded that sentiment, saying he truly does not want to see Reid lose.

Among the factors working in Schumer's favor are that he has developed respect among his colleagues as a political practitioner, who, as one Democrat who's dealt with him for years put it, "if he wants something, he knows what he has to do to go out and get it. He's going to be able to outsmart or outpolitick" anyone.

"People have a tremendous amount of respect for...his abilities as a political practitioner," another longtime Schumer-watcher said.

Another Democratic insider suggested what is needed for the Democrats in the Senate now is a "war-time consigliere," and that that an asset in Schumer's column.

As my colleague Manu Raju reported recently, Schumer has given about $4 million to his colleagues this cycle, money that boosts them in their own races and which could be remembered down the road in a leadership fight. Among that cash has been several hundred thousand dollars to the Nevada State Democratic Party and to Reid, who, even if he loses, will remain majority leader for two months as the battle for his replacement was waged.

That giving, Raju reported, has stepped up just as the speculation is growing about the future of the Senate Democrats, although Schumer has insisted he's trying to help his party.

Other Washington insiders argued that the edges had been softened on Schumer's well-known reputation as a self-promoter - something that served him well in New York in his initial election to the Senate and his re-election six years later - and that he's seen as having grown into a more leaderly role.

Schumer was also head of the DSCC during two cycles of major gains and strong fund-raising - and there are some 14 senators who got elected during those years, who might feel allegiance to him.

Durbin, meanwhile, is close with the White House - a fact that has its benefits but also its negatives, especially given that Tuesday is widely going to be interpreted as a referendum on President Obama.

"The Senate is going to want more distance from the White House, not less," predicted one veteran Democratic strategist.

Durbin and Obama are from the same state, and Schumer's re-election wouldn't be for another six years, compared to Durbin's four years - a small issue but the Democrats may want to buy time.

There are, however, the flip-side arguments, and Durbin does have strengths of his own, one of which is personal popularity, and the fact that he's personally liked by many of his colleagues.

He's also seen as a hard worker, one who is constantly on the Senate floor and active in floor fights, something that matters greatly in the insular body.

Most significantly, Durbin is seen as the more liberal of the two men, and Senate members may simply decide that at this juncture for the Democratic party, he would make sense for ideological reasons.

On the other hand, Reid, who's pulled off rabbit-out-of-a-hat victories before, may win on Tuesday.

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Schumer is going to have to answer a lot of questions regarding his "BRAIN" Hank Morris, Steven Rattner, Alan Hevesi, DiNapoli, and all the others mentioned in PensionGate.
JUST say NO to the Democ"RAT"ic Cover Up Gang
of Schumer, Cuomo, DiNapoli, and the "WATACHDOG AG" Eric Schneiderman Ruff Ruff
Before there was the “Oracle at Delphi” there was Count Vampire J. Machiavelli