Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Not convinced that market had even a short term turning point today, my guess after running multiple methods of signals search and not finding long awaited confirmation of reversal ( short or long term ) I'd day:

XLF, SPY, XHB, RKH will have to undergo some kind of consolidation ( likely after additional pop tomorrow morning due to "overnight surprised shorts covering" )

QQQQ, SMH still don't look good long ( they are not short now, but not long as well )

And I think it is because everyone is trying to figure out if OIL is done - if it is - money will flow into qqqq and xlf, but if oil resumes uptrend after tom. mor. extra drop - then only XLF will get inflows.

I am kind of thinking alowd now, but anyhow IF long side has to be taken it'll be

1. PPH

2. XLF ( after at least some consolidation) and may be even XHB, I think those are starting to put in "the" bottom. Everything else will be dependent on KOL, USO, OIH action - why I am saying it? because I ( with my limited ways of doing so ) don't see any NEW money coming into the market now, so whatever happen wil be rotation.

downtrend has not been broken...yet .. if I would have to open any new positions tomorrow, log or short - I just would not...way too much risk ( since I am heavily long calls XLF, XHB, PPH I hope for more upside, but truly I am really confused by what I see. Hope it'll be clear withing this or next week at the longest.

Except for 1 thing - "stampede selling" is over, most of beaten down sectors are back into acceleration channel, it is still descending, but slope might start decreasing.

Damn, I am like economist, confused myself with "on one hand, but on another hand" - I guess it is "wait and see" time next few days. ===============================================

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Disclaimer: This website may include stock and market analysis. Any opinions, ideas, views and statements expressed here are opinion only, subject to change without notice and for informational purposes only. Trading stocks carries a high degree of risk. It is possible that an investor may lose part or all of their investment. Accuracy and timeliness of any information is not guaranteed and should only be used as a starting point for doing independent additional research allowing the investors to come to his or her own opinion. Nothing on this blog is to be considered a buy, hold or sell recommendation. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the opinions, ideas, and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein are committed solely at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Results are dependent on market conditions, timing and trading style. This blog is not affiliated with Tom DeMark in any way and does not claim to represent his estate or personal views. Any references to Tom DeMark or any of his indicators are for educational use only. Comments posted on Disqus Threads are not moderated and are not representative of opinions of authors of this site.

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