I beg your pardon - You have a 66.666...% chance of getting the direction right the first time, but you will be correct only 33.333...% percent of the time

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I guess you will still have 50% chance to get the direction right. Suppose that you have three wires A B C, that you wire to L1, L2 and L3 terminals of the motor by that order:
- A B C, B C A and C A B will rotate the motor to one direction;
- C B A, A C B and B A C will rotate the motor in the opposite direction.

In reality, you will have more chances to wire it wrong. At least in that part we agree.