"Black Friday" marks the traditional start of the festive shopping season. So-called because it's the day retailers hope their accounts will move from the red into the black, the annual shopping bacchanal has even bigger hopes pinned on it this year.

Consumer spending is one of the biggest drivers of the US economy. The recession caused spending to drop in 2008 and 2009, the first fall since the government started collecting shopping figures in the 1960s. Last year consumers took out their wallets once more and sales bounced back, rising 5.2%, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

But those figures were like comparing modest feast with a nasty famine. How will 2011 look now that the recession is officially over?

There were worrying signs on Wednesday when the Commerce Department announced personal consumption expenditures grew just 0.1% in October, following a 0.7% rise in September.

The retailers are certainly giving it their all to entice nervous shoppers. Black Friday is slipping into Thanksgiving itself as the shops compete for business. After the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins have finished their game in Arlington, and before the turkey gets put in the fridge, major department store chains are hoping to lure consumers with "door-buster" bargains. Toys "R" Us is planning its first-ever 9pm holiday season opening; Walmart opens an hour later. At midnight, Best Buy, Kohl's, Macy's and Target throw open their doors.

The demand appears to be there. According to a survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSS), about 40 million Americans are prepared to cut short Thanksgiving for the potential of a shopping bargain. "People are really hunting for bargains this year," said spokesman Jesse Tron.

The battle to win over nervous consumers has begun even earlier than usual. Best Buy, Kmart, Sears and Walmart started leaking details of their upcoming deals a week ahead of the Black Friday frenzy. Even Apple has got in on the act, announcing that its US site and shops will be having a one-day sale on Friday.

"Cyber Monday" – once Black Friday's online rival – has cracked under the pressure. The day after the holiday weekend used to be the big sales day for online stores, but they have started offering discounts a week earlier than usual as their bricks and mortar rivals moved to steal back sales.

Can anyone win in this cut-throat environment? Some of the biggest retailers seem unsure. Last month, Best Buy's chief executive, Brian Dunn, cut full-year earnings forecast for the world's largest consumer-electronics retailer. The company is contending with "volatile and uncertain" consumer spending.

Nor are consumer analysts entirely convinced. There is enormous interest from shoppers in the holiday sales this year, said Marshal Cohen, chief analyst at market research firm NPD Group.

"So much attention has gone into these extended hours," he said. "The problem is: I don't have more money in my pay packet, I don't have more money on my credit card balances."

On top of that, there is no new new. There is nothing truly new about this year's hot items, said Cohen. "Sweaters, costume jewellery, e-readers: they've all been around," he said.

The ICSS's poll of "hot" items this year is led by gift cards, and followed by apparel and toys and games.

Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board in New York, fears "Christmas has come and gone already." He said the latest gross domestic product figures pointed to troubled days ahead for retailers, and a continued weakness in consumer spending.

Consumer spending rose 2.3% in the last quarter, but consumer income rose just 0.2%, according to the latest figures from the Commerce Department.

"If that continues into the fourth quarter, either you will have a very weak start to next year as consumers try to make up for the money they have spent that they don't have – or the figures show that they have done their spending already," Goldstein said.

Retailers were giving smaller discounts this year than last, said Goldstein. "Last year they had high expectations that just didn't materialise," he said. "They got burned."

But thrifty shoppers are used to big sales after years of ever steepening pre-Christmas discounts, so the two sides are likely to be locked in courtship dance that may end in disappointment for everyone.

The NRF is more optimistic. It is predicting holiday shopping will be up another 2.8% this year, to $465.6bn.

"The comparisons were very easy last year, but overall there was a sense that shoppers were tired of being frugal. This year we have had a rough summer. There was the fight over the debt ceiling, the stock market, retail sales stalled," said NRF spokeswoman Kathy Grannis.

But things are looking better. The number of people who are "definitely" shopping this weekend has jumped from 27% in 2010 to 33% this year. That's 152 million planning to go bargain-hunting this weekend – but of that number, 77 million are waiting to see if the bargains are worth braving the crowds.

Cohen says he's expecting slow, steady growth this year, but what amazes him the most is that shoppers are shopping at all. Having weathered a European debt crisis that threatened to wreck the US stock markets, the row over the debt ceiling and an at best lacklustre recovery consumers got hit again last week by the failure of the supercommittee to reach an agreement on the national deficit, he said.

All this uncertainty just holds consumers back, said Cohen.

"Usually it's the Grinch that steals Christmas. This year it could be the government," he said.