November 2015 Archive

Monday, November 30, 2015

Just to annoy the landlords more

Listening to Wave 105 while driving to and from work I keep hearing adverts for this.
Personally I think this and the landlord stamp duty increases are a very shrewd attempt to repeat the popularity Thatcher gained with selling council houses off cheaply. For each landlord vote they loose they could gain ten votes from people who think the Government is finally on their side.
What next. Right to buy for private tenants ?

Friday, November 27, 2015

"But the most telling point is that there is no such vilification of corporate buy-to-let."
I'm like a broken record here but no one in their right mind would prefer to rent from an amateur instead of a professionally run company. And since UK renters get the worst value for money in the world, can this guy seriously be surprised that BTL is despised? If our bread cost more than anywhere in the world and was stale, people would not be pleased with the UK's bakers...

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Who else are landlords going to vote for? Excellent point from John Stepek

"Better yet  who else are these disenfranchised landlords going to vote for? Anyone think theyll get a fairer hearing from Jeremy Corbyn, and his wee red book?
Didnt think so.
In short, you can whack them all you want at very little cost to your own base, and with the potential of big gains from others who might not traditionally have voted for you. Its brutal political calculus."
Will be fascinating to see how this all pans out.
I used to think that BTL wasn't too bad - renters use housing more efficiently than owner occupiers and BTL is taxed a bit. But the latter is not true in my opinion - tax collected from BTL is less than Housing Benefit paid to the industry... And everyone needs incentives to use housing efficiently, not just renters

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Squeeze those evil property tycoons

I think they had got the air quotes in the wrong place. Maybe it should read.
Priced out tenants reacted jubilently to the change, saying it would choke off "investment" in rented properties.
After all most of the "investment" comes from their savings deposits in the banks and building societies.

A welcome change in policy

George Osborne is to set out government spending plans up to 2020 later, which will include billions of pounds in cuts but also new money for housebuilding. The Autumn Statement and Spending Review will detail £20bn of cuts to Whitehall budgets and £12bn to welfare. But the chancellor will pledge almost £7bn to make housebuilding a priority, with more than 400,000 "affordable homes" to be built in England.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Interest-only a ticking debt timebomb

>> "The Citizens Advice Bureau warned that 934,000 UK home owners have no plan for payong off the principal on their interest only mortgage. Britain could encounter the first round of these problem owners in 2017."
Interest-only loans fuelled the 80s housing bubble, allowing borrowers to bid up prices more an the high interest rates would otherwise have allowed. While most of these price excesses were cleansed by 1996, the underlying debt is still out there, waiting to catch up with generation debt, most of whom are approaching retirement.
Should be interesting. Maybe lenders will extend their loan terms?

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Tory think-tank wants to shut stable door after horse is long gone

It is a dramatic repudiation of decades of thinking in the Conservative party. These are the people who have, until now, equated rising house prices with wealth and prosperity, and who have profited enormously from buy-to-let and billions in foreign cash. But the Bow Group now recognises that Britains housing market is broken  and its prescription for reform may stagger traditional Tory supporters.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

From the horses mouth

Straight talk from a leading lender....this bubble is now so huge that when it bursts all hell will break loose.
Don't forget London has over 25% of mortgage money held there add south east and I suspect near 50% of
All mortgage money is held in a monster property bubble...and nationwide and other banks have been lending into it.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Mortgage manipulation

Shaun Richards discusses the overall effect of MMR and the Funding for Lending Scheme. It's hard to see any sense or purpose in simultaneously trying to cool the mortgage market by MMR while at the same time, the "Bank of England still has its foot on the mortgage market pedal via the Funding for Lending Scheme." In the closing paragraph, Richards asserts that the UK financial regulators haven't really tried to control the mortgage market at all.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Then like my dreams they fade and die...

Now, 36 percent of all properties currently on the market across prime central London are being marketed at a lower price than they were originally listed at, with the average reduction in price being 8.5 percent.
A good start, and plenty further to fall in the big smoke?

Chinese capital controls put pressure on London Housing

''...in the aftermath of Beijing's crack down on capital controls following its August currency devaluation, that "new Chinese 'regulations' may just kill Australia's golden goose of 'weath creation' as Aussie's largest trade partner sees its economy collapse."

Thursday, November 12, 2015

The elephant in the room for housing, the low wage or no-wage automated economy

Automation threatens of all existing jobs in the UK and the third machine age will hollow out the labour market as never before, widening the gap between rich and poor. The third industrial evolution will intensify the trends seen in the first two and widen the distribution of wages thus resulting in a disproportionate share of labours income, the space remaining for uniquely human skills could shrink further. Labours share of the pie could fall even more dramatically and faster than in the past. On this view, the tree would be so thoroughly hollowed-out that it may no longer be able to support itself. Haldane suggests that increasing automation may already be depressing wage growth, explaining why inflation has consistently undershot the governments 2% target.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

House price crash not looking likely

"Britain's jobs-rich recovery gathered momentum in the quarter to September as unemployment fell to a seven year low and the number of people in work hit a fresh high. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3pc in the three months to September. This is down from 5.6pc in the quarter to June and represents the lowest rate since April 2008. Economists had expected unemployment to remain unchanged from 5.4pc in August." Long time readers may recall some analysis of a correlation between unemployment rates and house price changes. It's hard to see how we can have a crash with such strong employment numbers even if they do include more low pay jobs for renters.

Some sense

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish landlords will only be allowed to increase residential rents every two years under a government plan set to be announced shortly to temporarily control soaring rents, two government sources said on Friday.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

"Airbnb reducing availability of rental space"

Critics of Airbnb want to limit and further regulate its operations because they say it reduces the amount of residential space to rent, especially in overheated and tourist areas like San Francisco, 'disrupts neighbourhoods' and jeopardises the jobs of hotel workers. Cities and other critics are hindered by lack of information, which Airbnb isn't too keen to share. The company spent nearly $9million to defeat a 'greater regulation' proposal in SF - with perhaps more cities taking up the cudgel against it.

"November 2015 we'll be millionaires" "Lovely Jubbly!

A pre-fabricated property dubbed a "shed" in south-east London has been auctioned off for just under £1m. The 1950s bungalow situated on 0.6 acres of land in Peckham contains three rooms, a kitchen and unfitted bathroom. Described as "dilapidated", Southwark Council said it was "extremely pleased" it sold for £950,000. The property is not thought to have been lived in since 2002.

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

The real housing

Amazingly the article ends "The council ruled that Zuo Jun He, who had not responded to a request for comment by the time of publication, can remain a landlord but will not gain a future HMO licence. He has since evicted all the tenants."