So take with a pinch of salt the supposed inside information currently being bandied about. In truth, the cabinet that emerges next month – and it's still only speculation that there will actually be a reshuffle – may be different from the one even David Cameron has in mind.

That said, one fixed point is that George Osborne will remain as chancellor. It is not merely that he and the prime minister are joined at the hip; ditching the chancellor, even if Cameron had any inclination to do so (which he doesn't), would destroy the government's economic credibility at a stroke.

There is an assumption that William Hague, too, will remain as foreign secretary, but it's far from inconceivable that he will be asked to plug a gaping hole in the current team: the party chairmanship. Baroness Warsi has strengths – she is a walking rebuttal to the idea of the Conservative party as narrow-minded – but never having been elected, she's simply not up to the specific requirements of the job. Michael Fallon is favourite – he is indefatigable whenever someone is needed to dig the government out of a media hole – but the housing minister, Grant Shapps, is also in the running.

The three main reformers, Andrew Lansley at health, Iain Duncan Smith at work and pensions and Michael Gove at education, are expected to stay put. Cameron loathes the idea of expertise acquired doing a job being squandered and, having survived thus far, Lansley will probably remain in post. IDS's reforms are still incomplete and his own desire to stay probably matches the PM's propensity to let ministers get on with things.

Gove is more tricky. The undoubted star of the government – he has faced down his enemies within the education establishment and his own department – there are many MPs pressing his case for promotion. But that misunderstands Gove. The education secretary sees his current job as something close to the pinnacle of politics – he is being given the chance to effect truly radical change in education and transform millions of lives. What could be a promotion from that? My bet is he will stay.

Kenneth Clarke's time, however, has run out. It was an understandable move to call on his experience when the government took office. But he is not merely out of tune with his party; his soft approach is completely out of step with the country. Whoever replaces him – perhaps Nick Herbert, who shadowed the job in opposition – it would be wrong to paint his replacement as indicating some shift to the right. It's more a case of removing an anachronism.

Others who will probably disappear are the anonymous Welsh secretary, Cheryl Gillan, the leader of the house, Sir George Young, who like Clarke was included primarily for his experience, the environment secretary, Caroline Spelman, who has achieved next to nothing in nearly two and half years, and the chief whip, Patrick McLoughlin, who has failed in the basic task of preventing rebellions.

Ideologically, it's unlikely that the reshuffle will signal any particular shift, although Owen Patterson, the Northern Ireland secretary, may well be given a more frontline job. But that, too, will say more about his talents than his position as one of the leaders of the right.

Cameron's predisposition is to leave well alone, so do not expect too many fireworks. Then again: what do I know?