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Next big snowstorm will mostly miss Michigan, but have big impact if you are driving south

snow-forecast.jpg

This graphic shows how the main area of moisture is expected to pass mostly south of Michigan. If you are driving south Sunday through Tuesday be prepared for dangerous driving conditions.
(www.farmerweather.com)

In the last few days most of our facebook pages have had someone share a weather image of "the storm of the century" coming our way. At the present time it does not look like Michigan is in line for a super huge snowstorm this weekend and early next week. But it is likely there will be a large snowstorm track just south of Michigan. This type of track is always the track we have to watch, in case the storm starts tracking farther north than expected.

The top graphic shows the precipitation forecast for now through next Tuesday. It shows you the path of the heaviest precipitation. This forecast is from one of the models that does pretty good that far out in the future. Our better short term model only forecasts out to Sunday right now, and has slightly higher snowfall for Michigan for this weekend. By slightly higher, I mean two to four inches instead of under two inches. That kind of discrepancy we won't sweat in this winter!

The storm will likely track out of the southern Plains Saturday and pass just to the south of Michigan Sunday into Monday.

Here in Michigan there will be two periods of snow. One period Friday night and Saturday morning will drop an inch or two of snow across the Lower Peninsula. A second period of snow sometime Sunday could also produce an inch or two of snow.

Then the main area of heavy precipitation will move across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If you are driving anywhere south Sunday through Tuesday, you are going to have a slow and dangerous drive. Snowfall amounts could easily amount to over six inches in the states just south of Michigan. There will also likely be a swath of significant freezing rain south of the heavy snow band.

If you are trying to escape to Florida by car, my recommendation is to get to Tennessee by late Saturday, or you may want to wait until Tuesday to leave.

The storm still bears watching for a change to a little more northerly track. If that is the case, the southern border of Michigan could get a few more inches of snow.

I'll keep you posted on any significant changes. For now, if you are driving to Florida, start packing and get on the road.