Good News on Korea Talks

Lots of good news on Korea talks! This week President Trump revealed he had sent Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo to North Korea to meet with President Kim Jung-Un to prepare for a Trump-Kim summit. Pompeo confirmed the earlier Chinese information that North Korea is willing to negotiate about its nuclear program, dates and locations were discussed, and Trump expressed enthusiasm about the progress made.

South Korean papers have also reported that North and South Korea will use their summit meeting next week to announce their shared intentions “to ease military tensions and end a military confrontation”. Kim Jung-Un and Moon Jae-In seem to be moving forward skillfully to create a path for the US and China, the signatories to the 1953 armistice agreement, to join them in formally ending ongoing military hostilities – seen so clearly in the potentially disastrous nuclear confrontation between Trump and Kim just a few months ago.

The mutual Korean interest in ending military confrontation of course goes back to the division of the peninsula itself in 1945. Since then, both sides of the dividing line have lived with the threat of military conflict hanging over them – and both have felt the need to devote huge amounts to military preparedness. The Korean leaders, North and South, seem clear that what they want now is a non-aggression commitment, by each other and by the US and China, to prevent both nuclear and conventional conflicts on their soil.

A peace treaty to finally officially end the Korean War hostilities, committed to by the US, China and both Koreas seems like the needed first step. The US and South Korea also want a clear commitment from the North to end its nuclear program, and fortunately there are many bargaining chips the US can use to encourage the North’s agreement to a rapid, verifiable process: ending the provocative US-South Korean huge annual war games, removing US nuclear-capable bombers and naval vessels from and around the Korean peninsula and ending sanctions against the North.

The key to success will be Trump’s recognition that negotiations must be a win for both parties. Also critical will be Trump’s willingness to stay committed to the talks. Already, the same day he praised the Pompeo meeting with Kim Jung-Un and welcomed the North-South progress toward a peace agreement, by evening Trump had announced a threat to boycott a meeting with Kim or walk out of it if he wasn’t satisfied – hardly conducive to building North Korea’s confidence in the negotiations process.

The other critical question is who will be advising Trump during this process. It is somewhat ironic to see Pompeo playing a meeting-preparation role, since just last summer he advocated the need for regime change in North Korea.

Pompeo is playing the productive diplomat now – while he hopes to dispel opposition in the Senate to his nomination as Secretary of State. Senators are concerned not only about his record as a foreign policy hawk, but also about his repeated hostile and inflammatory comments about Muslims and his opposition to the fruits of previous diplomacy – including the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran Nuclear Agreement. I fear that if the Senate did confirm him, he would shed his role supporting a Trump-Kim meeting and revert to his hawkish self, advising Trump to make unrealistic demands of the North Koreans.

The Trump-Kim meeting is on track for now to take place in late May or early June. A successful agreement would be a major foreign policy coup for Trump at a time he surely needs a distraction from escalating legal problems. Let’s hope that keeps the president focused on making the negotiations a win for all parties!