Why Obama Cannot Win in 2012

The smart money in a presidential election is on the incumbent. But in a down economy, or when the public perceives the incumbent as feckless, dithering or simply not up to the task—can you say Jimmy Carter or George H.W. Bush?—the conventional wisdom can go out the window.

That’s pretty much where we are with President Obama. Several factors, when taken together, make it almost impossible for him to win reelection.

“It’s the Economy, Stupid.” We have former Bill Clinton advisor James Carville—who knows a little something about beating an incumbent president, Bush 41—to thank for that important insight. Maybe Carville was anticipating Obama.

A new Washington Post poll claims that 57 percent of the public disapproves of Obama’s handling of the economy. Those kinds of numbers can create electoral landslides—for the opponent.

Since 1940 no incumbent president has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.5 percent (i.e., Reagan’s rate in 1984). It’s currently 8.8 percent. Of course, many states have significantly higher unemployment rates; California, Nevada, Michigan, Oregon and Florida, among others, remain above 10 percent. Those states are essential for Obama’s reelection. While California and Oregon will remain blue, economically struggling Michigan, Nevada and Florida could express their discontent by voting Republican.

The economy will likely pick up over the next 18 months, but very slowly. And that means millions of struggling families will head to the polls on election day and vindicate Carville's political insight .

Consumers Are “Fueling” the Pain. High gas prices create immediate and visceral economic pain. A new ABC/Washington Post poll says that seven out of 10 respondents claim that high gas prices are “causing financial hardship.”

When those prices get high enough, the public starts demanding solutions—and holding politicians responsible.

Followed by an even bigger spike when Jimmy Carter occupied the Oval Office; and

2008, when oil exceeded $100 a barrel between January and September, ending just before the presidential election.

Incumbent Gerald Ford lost his reelection bid, as did Jimmy Carter. Of course, John McCain wasn’t running for reelection in 2008, but the Republican Party (with Bush in the White House) was—and the party lost. Even though prices had started to decline by September, it wasn’t enough to stem the summer of our discontent.

Barack Obama has never proposed a serious energy policy. Indeed, he has either directly or indirectly opposed virtually all efforts to develop domestic energy sources, including offshore drilling and in Alaska. Rather, his energy policy seems to be to put everyone in a (Government Motors) Chevy Volt.