If history is any guide, Sen. David Vitter should be nervous: Robert Mann

Updated May 10, 2015 at 1:03 AM;Posted May 9, 2015 at 1:11 AM

David Vitter

Sen. David Vitter, R-La., watches before an NFL football game between the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens in New Orleans, Monday, Nov. 24, 2014. (AP Photo/Jonathan Bachman) ORG XMIT: NYOTK
(Jonathan Bachman)

Hardly a day goes by that someone doesn't ask me: "Who's our next governor?" For a while, I would shrug and say, "Too soon to tell." The field wasn't set. We didn't know if New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu or state Treasurer John Kennedy, or others, might jump in.

Now we know. Landrieu won't run, and Kennedy endorsed Sen. David Vitter. That means, with less than six months to go before the Oct. 24 open primary, the major candidates will be three Republicans (Vitter, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle) against Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards of Amite.

The call should now be easy: With more cash than the other three candidates combined (over $4 million, not counting a well-funded super PAC with at least $3.5 million) and with about 35 percent in the polls, the race should be Vitter's to lose. Most everyone assumes there will be a runoff, as no candidate is likely to claim a majority in the October primary.

With Edwards also polling in the 30s, there's limited opportunity for Angelle or Dardenne to shove the Democrat aside to claim a runoff spot. For his part, Vitter certainly wants to face Edwards, as that match-up should be advantageous for him in this increasingly Republican state. If the November 2014 runoff between Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy is any indication, voters are not likely to elect a Democrat to statewide office anytime soon.

That's the conventional wisdom - and over the past 36 years and possibly longer - the conventional wisdom has usually been wrong in contested governor's races. In fact, being the leading candidate in a campaign for an open governor's seat is often a highly perilous position. Conversely, dwelling near or at the back of the pack with about six months to go is sometimes not a bad spot.

Let's start with the 1979 governor's race, which was one of the more exciting and talent-filled contests in Louisiana history. Early in 1979, polls showed then-Lt. Gov. Jimmy Fitzmorris virtually tied with congressmen Gillis Long and Dave Treen. Each polled about 20 percent (Long would not run). Dragging up the rear was Public Service Commissioner Louis Lambert with 5 percent. By mid-October, just weeks before the election, Treen narrowly maintained his lead, virtually tied with Fitzmorris. Secretary of State Paul Hardy was in third place with 12 percent. Lambert remained stuck at 9 percent.

On election night, however, Lambert claimed a runoff spot, only to lose the runoff with Treen by less than one percent.

Next, to 1987, when then-Gov. Edwin Edwards sought a fourth term. As late as August of that year, he and U.S Rep. Bob Livingston, R-Metairie, were virtually tied. Secretary of State Jim Brown and U.S. Rep. Billy Tauzin were in the low teens. Behind the field, with 8 points, was U.S. Rep. Buddy Roemer. By election night, Roemer surged into a runoff with Edwards, who conceded the race that evening.

Eight years later, in 1995, Roemer (who lost his 1991 re-election bid) was a Republican and attempting a comeback against a crowded field. In the spring, he appeared to be confident of a runoff spot. Other major candidates included state Treasurer Mary Landrieu, Lt. Gov. Melinda Schwegmann and U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields. In the cellar, at around 6 percent, was an unknown state Democratic state senator from Franklin, Mike Foster. Foster switched parties the week of qualifying. On election day, Foster led the field and handily beat Fields, his runoff opponent. Roemer, the presumed leader, finished fourth in the primary.

Most recently, in 2003, the field was crowded, much like in 1979, with plenty of top talent. Initially, there was former Gov. Treen (he would not run), Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, former U.S. Rep. Buddy Leach, former Senate President Randy Ewing, Treasurer Kennedy and a 32-year-old candidate who had never been elected to public office, Bobby Jindal (but who had the backing of then-Gov. Foster).

In April, Jindal was polling around 6 percent. On election night, he led with 32.5 percent to Blanco's 18 percent. He would lose the runoff by four points, but would roar back four years later to claim the office he holds today.

The lessons of these competitive races? It's often dangerous to be a frontrunner in a Louisiana governor's race. Voters often make their decisions late and they don't dismiss talented candidates only because they are polling poorly. Long-shot candidates often surprise the experts and surge at the end.

Vitter would certainly not trade places with any other candidate. That, however, doesn't mean that his leadership in this race is secure or that his victory is a foregone conclusion.

It is true, as they say in the financial industry, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results." Even so, history strongly suggests that Vitter - at least in May - should not be overly confident of victory.

Correction: The original version of this column said that Buddy Roemer was the incumbent governor in 1995. He was a former governor at the time. I regret the error.

Robert Mann, an author and former U.S. Senate and gubernatorial staffer, holds the Manship Chair in Journalism at the Manship School of Mass Communication at Louisiana State University. Read more from him at his blog, Something Like the Truth. Follow him on Twitter @RTMannJr or email him at bob.mann@outlook.com.