WASHINGTON — It's the political cure-all for high gas prices: Drill here, drill now. But more U.S. drilling has not changed how deeply the gas pump drills into your wallet, math and history show.

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.

The author is a dimwit. Drilling and prices will be positively correlated any time higher prices elicit more drilling. The price decline will occur with a lag as the results of the drilling come online and increase supply

"Yet it was during the last few months of Bush's term in 2008 that gas prices hit their highest: $4.27 when adjusted for inflation.

What, specifically, does this mean? Are they saying that it would be $4.27/gallon at today's prices? What a POS way of trying to make the price under Bush seem higher than the price under Obama. Sheesh....

In other news: Gravity is not an attractive force. Increased supply doesn't reduce costs. Summer is actually colder than winter. Water isn't wet. Dogs don't bark. 0bama is a competent President. Communism has never really been given a chance to succeed. The moon is made of green cheese.

Yeah. Sure. Great story bro!

15
posted on 03/21/2012 2:45:59 PM PDT
by allmendream
(Tea Party did not send GOP to DC to negotiate the terms of our surrender to socialism)

Science Writer at The Associated Press member at Society of Environmental Journalists

By Seth Borenstein, Raphael Satter and Malcolm Ritter, Dec 12, 2009

E-mails stolen from climate scientists show they stonewalled skeptics and discussed hiding data  but the messages dont support claims that the science of global warming was faked, according to an exhaustive review by The Associated Press.

How Will AP's Borenstein Respond to Peter Gleick's Admission That He Stole Documents From Heartland?

Peter Gleick, described in a related UK Guardian story as "a water scientist and president of the Pacific Institute," said last week that he "obtained" documents from the Heartland Institute about its strategy to, in part and in Borenstein's words (from his 1,000-word dispatch), "teach schoolchildren skepticism about global warming." Now, Gleick has admitted that he stole them (Gleick's description: "I solicited and received additional materials directly ... under someone elses name"). Oops. It get worse for Borenstein and the wire service on at least two levels.

If you think about it, there should be some correlation between prices and drilling but with a time lag. As oil prices rise, the incentive to drill will increase. But it takes time to start drilling. Once prices peak and start to drop, then drilling will start to drop. But it takes time to stop drilling.

This would take a bit more sophistication than what AP appears to provide.

Oh, OK, lets just stop drilling then, since it won’t have any negative effects.

China and the rest of the world drive demand now and therefore prices. Also, the dollar is becoming cheapened, which drives gas prices up. The better reason for us to drill here is jobs plus the $$$ we make from exports. If we hadn’t increased production, we’d be paying $6/gallon now.

But Obama, who has seen gas prices go up 73 percent since he took office, was singing a different tune last week in his weekly radio address: "The truth is: The price of gas depends on a lot of factors that are often beyond our control. Unrest in the Middle East can tighten global oil supply. Growing nations like China or India adding cars to the road increases demand. But one thing we should control is fraud and manipulation that can cause prices to spike even further."

The Moron in Chief thanks the AP for this 'FACT Check'. We could Drill here and keep it for our (and Canada's use). We don't need to export it to China...China is not a friend!!

22
posted on 03/21/2012 2:53:31 PM PDT
by ExCTCitizen
(If we stay home in November '12, don't blame 0 for tearing up the CONSTITUTION!!)

“Yet it was during the last few months of Bush’s term in 2008 that gas prices hit their highest: $4.27 when adjusted for inflation.” this last line from the article is BS and why are they adjusting it for inflation so they can make the price look higher at the end of bush’s term.

In June of 2008 the price for regular gas was high
around $4.079 per gallon but then it started going down and 7/28 it was $3.955 per gallon 8/25 it was $3.685 and 9/22 was $3.718 10/ 27 was $2.656, 11/24 it was $1.892 and 12/22/2008 it was $1.653. It has pretty much gone up since 2009 when Obama took office. I guess if we add inflation to Obamas prices it would be 1 trilion dollars per gallon

Who has said we ship more oil out? I know that we ship some gasoline out, but it is a very small amount compared to the amount of oil shipped in. During the period before the 2008 crash we were even shipping in gasoline because our refineries couldn't produce all we needed, but since then our demand has dropped below the refineries' production limits.

26
posted on 03/21/2012 2:55:42 PM PDT
by KarlInOhio
(You only have three billion heartbeats in a lifetime.How many does the government claim as its own?)

Question: What do President Barack Obama and ex-President Jimmy Carter have in common?

Answer: Both presided over strong increases in domestic oil production that were a result of decisions made before they took office.

The reason oil production rose under Jimmy Carter was because in 1973 President Nixon pushed through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Authorization Act which cleared away legal challenges from environmentalists seeking to stop construction of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. That pipeline started production in 1977, during President Carters first year in office, and as a result oil production rose for the first 2 years of his term.

Likewise, the reason that oil production has risen under President Obama is due to events that happened years earlier. In this case, it wasnt some grand initiative that President Bush passed, rather it was years of steadily increasing oil prices that caused oil companies to approve a number of new projects that had marginal economics at lower oil prices. But these projects take some years to build, and as in the case of the Alaska Pipeline, decisions that were made 4-6 years earlier benefited President Obama with increased domestic oil production.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. Part of that drop was also the economy beginning to fall off a cliff. It wasn't just drilling. It was the drop in demand.

As much as I want this to be Obama's fault...a lot of it isn't. Freepers are funny when it comes to gas prices. They fail to realize the same thing that drove oil prices up under Bush are driving it up now: SPECULATORS.

I believe what obowma and geithner and bernanke have given us is not rampant speculation they are “helpless” to confront ... but a weak dollar and a market that can no longer rely on the good faith of the US government that is printing all those debt notes masquerading as money

and obowma bears direct responsibility for that decision and the results, ala $4 + gasoline, in an economy that is at least as weak or worse than when Bush had his final 3 months in office

now this makes me wonder if that economic terrorist attack on the US banking system that occurred in September 2008 had anything to do with Bush’s willingness to play tough with the energy markets and speculators...

38
posted on 03/21/2012 3:10:17 PM PDT
by silverleaf
(Funny how all the people who are for abortion are already born)

>"even if the U.S. were to increase its oil production by 50 percent  that is more than drilling in the Arctic, increased public-lands and offshore drilling, and the Canadian pipeline would provide  it would at most cut gas prices by 10 percent. "

Sold!!! We'll Take It!!!!

Drill Baby Drill!!!

39
posted on 03/21/2012 3:10:44 PM PDT
by rawcatslyentist
(Mohammedan law every woman must belong to a man will delay the end of slavery until Islam has ceased)

A textbook illustration of why economics cannot be explained by or derived from statistics. More supply must cause prices to drop unless other factors intervene. The fact-checker would have us believe that American production is the only factor affecting oil prices.

Now, truth be known, Gingrich has claimed it to be true, too. He's even mentioned a price his drilling program would attain. That's foolishness.

Nonetheless, more American oil will be a good thing.

40
posted on 03/21/2012 3:34:09 PM PDT
by BfloGuy
(The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)

“.... Suppose we could drill all we want ..... but until we create more refineries ... the output will remain stagnant.”

And with Obama’s EPA sitting in the offices of the PRIVATE oil refineries (never happened before) waiting for them to do something ‘wrong’ (in their opinion) so they can SHUT THEM DOWN. We have a refinery here and they are all over the place like a bunch of roaches in the dark!

******

EPA’s Planned Pollution Controls on Power Plants and Refineries Called ‘Costly and Unworkable’

In an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it will decide which pollution-reduction technologies work best for power plants and refineries. It plans to issue regulations over the next two years requiring power plants and refineries to implement those pollution-reduction technologies.

The EPA will issue regulations for fossil fuel power plants in July 2011 and final regulations are expected to be set by May 2012. For refineries, the regulations will start in December 2011 and then final regulations are expected to be in place by November 2012.

The standards for reducing emissions will apply to new and existing power plants and refineries that, according to McCarthy, account for 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. These man-made gaseous emissions allegedly contribute to global warming.

We set the standards and the industries themselves figure out the most cost-effective way to achieve those standards, she said.

We have a lot of experience working with utilities as well as refineries, understanding the technologies that might be available to them for reductions, said McCarthy.

In a statement on Dec. 23, the American Petroleum Institute, which represents more than 450 oil and natural gas companies, said, EPA is cramming too much in too short of a time. The administrations focus should be job creation and economic recovery, not unnecessary and burdensome regulations that will threaten jobs and create a drag on business efforts to invest, expand and put people back to work.”

API hopes that EPA will reconsider its costly and unworkable greenhouse gas regulations,” said the institute. “The Clean Air Act was never intended to be used to regulate stationary source greenhouse gas emissions, and elected members of Congress should chart U.S. climate change policy.

The critical point to consider about producing more oil in the USA, even if it is at global prices, is that the profits stay in the USA. And, it produces more jobs in the USA. Neither of which are important to 0dumbo.

Also, a lot of the current price spike is tied to the Fed dumping Obama bucks into the economy:

“One particular segment where Fed policy is directly resulting in skyrocketing prices is at the gas pump. From the first day that the Fed began engaging in quantitative easing back in early 2008, the impact on gas prices has been profound.

Gasoline prices have followed a predictable trend since the first days of Fed stimulus. During QE1, gasoline prices skyrocketed by +118%. Once QE1 ended in April 2010, gasoline prices immediately dropped by -27% in a matter of months, and this occurred during what is typically the strong summer driving season. Once QE2 was delivered to the market in August 2010, gasoline prices jumped another 92% by the end of this stimulus program in June 2011. Once again, the moment QE2 ended, gasoline prices retreated another -28% in a matter of months. Finally, since the latest Fed stimulus program along with the European Central Banks own LTRO program, weve seen gasoline prices skyrocket another +30%. What is even more irksome is that much of this rise in gasoline prices has occurred during a time when gasoline consumption has been falling. Have the laws of supply and demand been repealed? No, theyve just been severely distorted by policy action.”

Drilling for oil and refining gasoline obviously needs lagging factors before someone can judge whether or not a correlation exists. In addition, correlation is neither cause, nor proof of cause. Correlation is statistical. Cause is deterministic.

There are several factors that influence prices. One is demand. When your economy collapses, you have fewer people commuting and fewer trucks hauling goods. Prices tend to go down.

When the economy picks up, then demand picks up. The elephant in the room is Asia; if demand picks up there, it doesn’t matter how little demand there is here, supplies are going to tighten.

So don’t look for a direct link between US drilling and US prices.

Still, if prices are high, then what oil you do drill brings more money into the US economy, and more money into the US treasury. Thats usually considered a good thing. That, plus, if you drill in the US then Americans go back to work. They buy cars and houses, and that puts other Americans back to work.

High oil prices are not automatically a bad thing, if its the result of an economy that is humming and the money is flowing to Americans. And low prices aren’t automatically good, if its the result of an economic meltdown and high unemployment.

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.