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Hurricane BLANCA

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015
The satellite presentation of Blanca continues to deteriorate, with
the eye no longer visible and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection diminishing. The current intensity is set at 80 kt which
is a blend of Dvorak T and Current Intensity numbers. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a good estimate of the
intensity in a few hours. Under the influence of progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures, southerly vertical shear, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should
continue to weaken quickly. The official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus and calls for the system to
weaken to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours. Blanca will
likely degenerate to a remnant low within a couple of days.
The initial motion estimate, 340/10 kt, is about the same as in the
previous advisory. Blanca should continue to move along the western
periphery of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the dynamical model consensus.
Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.
For more information, please see products from your local National
Weather Service office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 20.5N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.5N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 26.7N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.7N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN