Thursday, 3 May 2018

As
China reaches out to seize business opportunities, its Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) has expanded to include everything from ports in the Indian Ocean to
icebreakers traveling the Northern Sea Route. However, BRI is essentially an
attempt to recreate the fabled Silk Road. Central Asia was the heart of the
ancient Silk Road — and Uzbekistan lies at the heart of Central Asia. It is the
region’s most populous country, and the only one that shares borders with all
of the others. Uzbekistan also has the greatest potential for industrial
development, based on its past as host for Soviet technological research and
its large, young labor force.

Under the cantankerous President Islam
Karimov, Uzbekistan was an impediment to the integration of the Central Asian
states, the resuscitation of their economies, and the realization of China’s
BRI. For example, Tajikistan’s largest company and main export earner, the
aluminum smelter Talco, is dependent on the import of ore by rail via
Uzbekistan, which was repeatedly blocked by Karimov. His foreign policy
included meddling in the affairs of neighboring countries, shutting off their
gas supplies, closing border posts and flights, and having herders who followed
stray livestock across the border shot on sight.

When Karimov died in September 2016
after ruling Uzbekistan with an iron fist for 27 years, few people inside or
outside the country knew what to expect. There was no heir apparent or clear
mechanism for selecting a successor, and pundits had long been warning about the
risk of instability following the death of Central Asia’s one-man-show
presidents. Karimov’s once-favorite daughter, Gulnara Karimova, was already
under house arrest for her involvement in large-scale corruption, and it was
feared that a protracted power struggle might ensue.

However, the reins were quickly seized
by Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev, a figure about whom little was known in
the West. Among the few available pieces of information were unsubstantiated
accounts that he, in a past position as regional governor, personally beat up a
math professor whose students were being used as forced labor in the cotton harvest
and were not picking fast enough. Some therefore expected Mirziyoyev to be a
more energetic and even more brutal version of Karimov, under whom hundreds of
protesters, including women and children, were shot in the town of Andijan in
2005.

Yet Mirziyoyev now increasingly appears
as an Uzbek Deng Xiaoping. He swiftly kickstarted a series of large-scale
reforms, lashed out at corruption, and made unprecedented friendly overtures to
all of Uzbekistan’s estranged neighbors. Initiatives during his first year in
power included currency conversion reform, trade liberalization, improvement of
the business climate, reform of the cotton industry, simplified entry for
foreign nationals, and welcoming the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development back to Uzbekistan. Along with North Korea, Uzbekistan has been one
of the few countries in the world to maintain an exit visa regime for its own
citizens, but in 2019 this too will be scrapped.

In the first year of his presidency,
Mirziyoyev visited Kazakhstan four times, Turkmenistan three times, and Russia
twice, as well as China, Kyrgyzstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United
States. Noteworthy effects of this charm offensive have concerned relations
with neighboring Tajikistan, which Mitziyoyev visited in March. Freight trains
carrying ore for Talco’s aluminum production now roll unhindered through
Uzbekistan; direct passenger flights between the two countries have been
permitted for the first time in 25 years; a 30-day visa-free regime has been
established; and 10 of the 16 border checkpoints that had been closed have been
reopened, with the remainder under discussion.

Given Uzbekistan’s new foreign policy
outlook, solving regional squabbles over shared water resources now appears
more feasible than at any time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In
2012, Karimov threatened to go to war over water issues. Above all, he was
opposed to the construction of the 3,600 MW Rogun hydropower dam in Tajikistan,
which the Uzbeks fear could disrupt the supply of water for their main export:
cotton. But in March 2018, Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov
unexpectedly declared that Tajikistan could go ahead with the dam, as long as
long as Uzbekistan’s interests were taken into account and it is built in
accordance with the relevant international conventions to which Tajikistan is
party.

Uzbekistan’s newfound openness will
benefit China’s Belt and Road Initiative both directly and indirectly. It will
have a direct positive impact by making it easier and more
secure for the Chinese and others to invest in transport infrastructure
crisscrossing Central Asia. It will have an indirect positive
impact by facilitating economic growth in Central Asia — rendering the Belt and
Road less of a road to nowhere, and more economically meaningful for the
Chinese.

As Central Asia’s Uzbek capstone slides
into place, the Chinese can look forward to reaping the fruits of all that they
have quietly being sowing across the region, including investments in oil, gas,
railways, roads, dry ports, agriculture and the electricity sector. The
currency of Chinese soft-power investments is also likely to rise, including
the 11 Confucius Institutes across Central Asia and the education of 23,000
students from the region at Chinese universities.

Of course, Karimov was not the sole obstacle
to Central Asian integration. It takes five to tango, Central-Asian style, and
most of the other countries in the region frequently engaged in tit-for-tats
with Karimov’s Uzbekistan while their Soviet-trained leaders busied themselves
building national identities to set them apart from their neighbors. However,
when it came to interstate relations, Karimov was the worst of the lot and his
replacement by Mirziyoyev may tip the balance towards greater regional
integration.

The impact on BRI of Uzbekistan’s new
foreign policy stance also does not hinge on the country aligning with China
per se. It is not unlikely that Mirziyoyev — like Karimov before him, and like
Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow in neighboring
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — will do everything possible to maintain the
independence of his country from major outside powers. Fears of China (and
especially Chinese migrants), though less palpable than in Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan, are also evident among the Uzbek population. However, although
China behaves intrusively and coercively in contexts like the South China Sea
or the Doklam Plateau, the logic of BRI in Central Asia is one of connectivity,
cooperation, and large-scale investment. All China needs to make BRI work in
Central Asia is open borders and receptivity to Chinese capital.

As yet, Mirziyoyev does not appear set
on any major program of democratization, beyond a slight loosening of the reins
on religion and civil society. Like Deng Xiaoping, his focus appears to be on
the economy, security and foreign affairs. He is certainly no democratic
reformer along the lines of Mikhail Gorbachev. This too should fit Chinese
purposes nicely.

About Me

Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.

Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.

Political Achievements

Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.

Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.

Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.

Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.

.

At present, he is:

·Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;

·Spokesman for International KashmirAlliance;

·Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;

Previously

·A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.

·Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.

·Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.

·Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.

·Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.

·Addressed at CambridgeUniversity as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.

·In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was:“Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.

·Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.

·Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.

·Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.

·Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.

·Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.

·Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.

·Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.

·Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and

Publications

·Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.

·Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.

·Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.

·Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'

·Apart from that has twenty books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.

·Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it

·Different perspective on Kashmir

·JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir

·Kashmir Needs Change of Heart

·If not self - determination then what?

·Emma Nicholson report- who has won?

·Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)

·

Future publications

Following books were completed some time ago and shall be published in near future:

In Search of Freedom - My visit to Srinagar and Islamabad

Kashmir and Partition of India

A brief background

Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shimali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.

In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.

He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.

Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.