10 years/$240M (2012-21). Signed by LA Angels as a free agent 12/8/11. 12:$12M, 13:$16M, 14:$23M, 15:$24M, 16:$25M, 17:$26M, 18:$27M, 19:$28M, 20:$29M, 21:$30M. Milestone bonuses: $3M for 3,000 hits. $7M for 763 HRs. Full no-trade protection. May earn up to $0.875M annually in award bonuses: $0.5M for MVP ($75,000 each for 2nd or 3rd in vote). $0.1M for WS MVP. $75,000 each for Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, LCS MVP. $50,000 for All-Star. Perks: Suite on road, luxury suite for Pujols charity at 10 homes games each year, right to buy luxury suite between first and third base for all home games. 10-year, $10M personal-services contract begins upon retirement or once player contract expires. (Personal-services agreement is not included in MLB luxury tax calculations.)

BP Chats

Who are your biggest injury concerns heading into the season?(Daniel from Queens, NY)

That's a great question! Obviously, Michael Brantley. We have no idea what's going to happen there. Albert Pujols coming off foot surgery is a huge one for me too, especially at his age. Victor Martinez knees are always terrifying. Oh, and pitchers...All of them... (George Bissell)

How is it possible for the Angels to be putting this horrible of a roster out there despite having a $140 million payroll and emptying out the last of their farm system for Simmons? (Kristen from Canada)

$140 million isn't really a lot in this day and age, and they have such big chunks invested in players like Albert Pujols, who is still solid but not the superstar he was, and C.J. Wilson on the DL. They simply couldn't spend anything this winter on even marginal upgrades like Howie Kendrick over Johnny Giavotella and it shows on the active roster. They overpaid for Andrelton Simmons but even before that trade their farm system was just so bad. They are at the end of a success cycle that didn't offer a lot of success and likely have to consider rebuilding if they can't spend more money. (Mike Gianella)

Probably not. The one I'd consider is Carlos Santana, but for me, the difference between AVG and OBP leagues doesn't move the needle enough to ditch Pujols or Freeman for any of the guys you listed. Plus, it's only been a week and a half. Calm down. It's baseball, not football. You have ~150 games left. (Scooter Hotz)

I was really interested in your column about projection systems being tightly clustered and not all that accurate, all things considered. Do you think this invalidates the projection industry? What do we get out of them, and what do you think we should get out of them in a perfect world? (Jonas from Portland)

To your first question, no, absolutely not-I don't think it invalidates projections at all. Even though they aren't super-accurate and they are all tightly clustered, they are MUCH, MUCH better than guessing league average for every player (or some ad hoc guesses that one might do). In retrospect, I should have been more careful to emphasize this point. I really meant to say that we have a long way to go in terms of improving the projections.

We get out of them decent guesses, seasoned with historical accuracy and a lot of regression to the mean. What we should get out of them are better guesses, and the ability to more quickly determine when a player's ability has truly changed. I am definitely in the camp that player abilities do change on a year-to-year basis, but our systems are only crudely capable of telling when. Albert Pujols is an example of this, as is someone like Michael Brantley. (Rob Arthur)

What's the earliest you'll be drafting Albert Pujols this year? And assuming health isn't an issue, should we expect a major bounce back? (yancyeaton from Fort Myers)

Major bounce back is a bit much, but I think he can produce similarly to how he did in 2012, which is pretty good. He's likely to be undervalued and if you can stomach the risk, he could be a great bargain this year. (Ben Carsley)

Yeah, that's too much. Pujols was the greatest right-handed hitter of his generation, and will probably go down as a top-5-10 all-time RHH. I don't make definitive statements too often, especially in chats, but Bryant isn't going to do that. (Jeff Moore)

I like that trade for you a little bit, although a lot depends on what your needs are, whether or not you're on a competitive footing for 2014, and how deep your league is. In a really deep league, that's a great trade for you; in a shallower league it's close. I like Baez a lot so I think that if Pujols can put up "only" a 25 HR/90 RBI year that you still did the right thing here. I think Cano will be fine in Seattle, but that's still a good deal of value you're getting in return. (Mike Gianella)

Thank you for the chat, Mike. Next year in fantasy baseball, are you more willing to take a chance on Albert Pujols or Josh Hamilton? What kind of performances are you expecting from them? (Pujols looks to be over his plantar fasciitis issues and Hamilton said he would put the 30 pounds he lost prior to this season back on.)(Dennis from LA)

Thanks for coming.

I think I'd be more likely to gamble on Pujols than Hamilton. Even if Pujols doesn't return to an elite level, I would still expect a strong, Top 25-30 hitter at worst if he's 100%. Hamilton has looked completely lost for at least a season and a half now and given that his issues are related to contact and poor pitch selection, I have no faith in him bouncing back. Maybe he will, but he'll never be back in Arlington. I'd guess that Pujols is a 30/100/.290 guy while Hamilton is more of a 23/80/.275 hitter.

We'll see what happens with Hamilton and the weight. I'm skeptical that it will be a cure all, though. (Mike Gianella)

The Red Sox get Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton, contracts included. Fill out the rest of the deal that makes it remotely fair for both teams. (Jasper from Johns Hopkins)

I almost did a column on this but I ran up against this problem: I have no earthly clue. On one hand Trout is incredible and almost defies value. But this is silly money. Put it this way: would you pay $38M, $39M, $48M, $56M, $57M, $28M, $29M, and $30M starting next year through 2021 for the right to pay Mike Trout for his next four seasons and maybe a chance to pay him $350 million over the next 10 seasons?

I'm asking because I honestly don't know. Would you do it? (Matthew Kory)

It's always difficult to answer a full blown roster question without having access to everyone else's roster and teams. Generally speaking, your offense looks strong, although in a shallow league under performing players like Weeks should probably be shown the door. On the pitching side, I think that Lincecum is a weak play for an eight-team mixed format. None of the free agents stand out, but Aoki could arguably be added to your squad. (Mike Gianella)

Without knowing what the rules are regarding how deep your reserve lists are and what your free agent pool looks like it's difficult to offer specific advice. Your roster looks strong, but 8-team mixed probably has a lot of rosters that look like this. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum seem like players that you should be upgrading on. Feel free to drop Carlos Marmol, and as much as I love Kenley Jansen if there's a closer out there, get him; in an 8-team league you shouldn't be speculating on future saves but getting saves here and now. The free agents you list don't look particularly great which - again - makes me wonder how deep your reserve lists are. (Mike Gianella)

What is Pujols' value in a keeper league? Is he still a top 10 value for the next 3 years or should I be concerned about the Anahiem park factors and declining numbers and looks to move him for younger players?(TheCoupons from FL)

There are two conflicting factors when it comes to a player like Albert Pujols. The first is that he is going to decline as he gets older, and the decline has already started. The other side of the coin is that elite players like Pujols are at such a high level to begin with that their declines still can lead to some pretty strong numbers even if they're not elite. My guess is that Pujols can earn in the Top 10 but Top 20-25 might be a safer bet for his Age 33-35 seasons. If you can move Pujols for a Giancarlo Stanton or a Bryce Harper do it, but in recent years more fantasy players gravitate toward the younger stars and this is obviously easier said than done. (Mike Gianella)

Wow, there is a ton of talent on the FA list. I would certainly target Lynn, Anderson, and Miller on the mound, especially since your pitching is hurting with Lincecum, Haren, and Halladay. That would be my #1 priority, no doubt.

Among the hitters, I like Freese, Crisp, and Aoki. But you are pretty solid in the OF and 3B already, so that would be a secondary concern. (Doug Thorburn)

Assuming Cabrera, Trout, and Braun are off the board, who would you take fourth in a OPS league with 4 outfielders and a extra IF slot?
Votto? Cano? Pujols? or even reach on Stanton?(Dylan from Portland,ME)

Hi Dylan. PFM says Albert Pujols, but I'm really high on Joey Votto this year and in an OPS league while I wouldn't go as far to say he's a no brainer he's a strong choice for me. Unlike some of my fantasy colleagues at BP, I think Giancarlo Stanton is a reach here. The BB last year weren't high, and while he may get a few more free passes, the eye doesn't speak to a significant increase in walks. (Mike Gianella)

Hey Ian, what do you expect from Albert Pujols next year? Another sluggish start? Just more of the same? Will his whiff rate continue to climb as his walk rate continues to plummet? PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW.(Brill Hardstank from Lost Wangeles)

Hey Boil!

I think Albert will hit a ton next year. The first half of 2012 looks like a major outlier to me. As he gets more comfortable, the BB rate should climb and the K rate should drop. I mean, it's not like the guy forgot how to hit a baseball or anything. 2013 should look a lot like vintage Pujols.

The last 5 or 6 years of that deal, though? Those are the years I'd be concerned about. (Ian Miller)

I know you can never have too much pitching, but take a look at the Cardinals for a moment if you'd be so kind. What would you do with all those arms?(Jeff from Springfield)

Jeff from Springfield, thanks for the question. Trust me, GM John Mozeliak does not think that he has too much pitching, because those words don't ever come out of a GM's mouth. The great thing it brings them is having options and being able to decide who fits in what role and who they can consider moving in a deal to get better. I don't think the Cardinals have received enough credit for what they have accomplished this year after losing a Hall of Fame manager in Tony LaRussa, the best pitching coach on the planet in Dave Duncan, and one of the great players of our generation in Albert Pujols. Plus, they come off a World Series title and have a rookie manager. That's pretty impressive. Rejoice in having options, Jeff. (Dan Evans)

As of right now, I have the 26th best season(in terms of WAR) of MLB history in my rookie year at 20 yrs old. If Albert Pujols is a machine, what am I? T1000? Have you seen John Connor?(Mike Trout from MLB Universe)

As my friend Craig Burley likes to note, "Baseball is hard." I think the coronation of Mike Trout can afford to wait a while. Also, I think that DRS is pretty significantly overrating Trout's fielding, and that's causing people to apply a lot of hyperbole to a season that doesn't really require any. (Colin Wyers)

I like May, because around May people (probably me, even) start acting like the sample size is big enough that we are learning significant information. But, as Dunn shows, an entire season doesn't really tell you anything close to definitive about a player. I think I remember reading Nate Silver once say that a player's preseason projections are more predictive than their actual stats *even at the end of the season*, which is sort of awesome if I remember it correctly. Entire seasons are too small of a sample. We know nothing, ever.

So Dunn. PECOTA had him going .251/.372/.506 before the 2011 season, and I wouldn't bet all that much against him hitting it this year. Though he's at an age when some steady decline makes sense. He's only a month older than Albert Pujols. Did you know that? That's a reliable mind-blower. (Sam Miller)

Albert Pujols is now enduring the 2nd longest HR drought of his career. The 1st longest being during last season if I remember correctly. Is this an age regression that we are seeing?(Eric Johnson from Costa Rica)

It could be. I think it's important to remember though that when we talk about peak years and age regression we're talking about the whole of baseball history. Albert Pujols is a massive exception. Could he be taking a step down? Maybe, but I think it's still early. If you can trade for him in your fantasy league for cheap, do it now. (Matthew Kory)

Jason,
Ignoring contract, if you were running a team, would you rather have 32 year old Albert Pujols or 22 year old Eric Hosmer? In what year do you think Hosmer will become better than Pujols?(poldytow from Boston, MA)

Contract aside, I'd prefer to have Pujols for the next two or three seasons, and then Hosmer every year after that. If I were running a team and had to build around a player, I'd go Hosmer. He will challenge for an MVP before he leaves Kansas City (Jason Parks)

How soon are the Angels going to regret that contract for Albert Pujols?(scareduck from Temporarily Tempe, AZ)

There are two ways to read the question. One is how soon Albert Pujols will be overpaid, so how soon the Angels will wish they no longer had the contract. The answer to that is probably... year six, when I think he projects to drop below 4 wins, or year seven, when he drops under 3. But the other way is how soon they'll actually regret signing him, and I actually don't know that they will until at least year 9 or 10. He should be good enough that even if he ends up overpaid by the win, everybody around the club will at least be glad to have him in the lineup, and they're a team that can absorb a bad contract or two without feeling much pinch. (Sam Miller)

Let me ask it differently: Is there anyone that comes to mind whose power you'd put in the same class as Hamilton, Stanton and Harper? I've seen Hamilton and Stanton put balls over the fence they didn't come close to hitting squarely, and I assume Harper's the same way. Anyone else?(eliyahu from DC)

Prince Fielder has crazy power. Albert Pujols has crazy power. Nelson Cruz and Joey Bats both have tons of power. Lots of guys have power, but the three guys you mentioned (Harper, Hamilton, Stanton), stand out for me with the utter damage they can do to a baseball. (Jason Parks)

Use your Rick Reilly/Bill Simmons sense and complete this sentence: "Mark Trumbo or Albert Pujols at third base is scarier than ________________________________________(Lerry N. from Toronto)

Reilly: Mark Trumbo at third base is scarier than leaving your kids with their uncle Jerry Sandusky for the weekend.

Simmons: Mark Trumbo at third base is scarier than whatever shady business Mr. Miagi was involved in to be able to afford that huge backyard and half-dozen classic cars on a handyman's salary. I bet if Lestor Freaman got up in his business, he'd find out Mr. Miagi controlled the smack market in Encino AND Reseda. A whole bunch of little ninjas working for him, out on the street hollering "Sweep The Leg! I got that Sweep The Leg!"

Reilly AND Simmons: Mark Trumbo at third base is scarier than a stripper with an Adam's apple.

I personally don't think it's scary, so much as unlikely and not really necessary. It's not like the Angels don't have a third baseman. They have Alberto Callaspo, who has produced 8.3 WARP over the past three years. David Wright has produced 9.0 WARP over the past three years. Everybody acts like the Angels have to do something about a third base problem, but there's no problem. During spring training this year, the Angels should convert Alberto Callaspo to left field, and then convert him BACK to third base, just so it looks like they're being really proactive. (Sam Miller)

So, does the Pujols signing tell us anything about the state of the union/ economics of baseball post-CBA? I fear a two-tier system to some degree. I mean, for years we were lauding teams like the A's and Rays for figuring out ways to compete on a small budget. But now, thanks to teams like the Rangers and Red Sox, there's a road map for teams with resources to play on both the player development and free agent markets. I fear the Rays are doomed to fade as the A's have done as more teams with means figure it out (Jays, Cubs, maybe the Dodgers under new ownership?). I mean, I know FA acquisitions analytically don't give much surplus value, but as you point out that doesn't really matter to a team like the Angels. I'm sure there's a question in here somewhere.(Rob from Alaska)

I don't think there's a really a word in your question that couldn't have been asked at any point over the past 15 or 20 years. It's the way it is, and it's been, and some teams still manage to break through. You cited the Rays as a team we talked about "for years," but that's present tense! They made the playoffs last year. They have almost everybody good on their team locked up with club options until 2025. The Padres will win a division in the next three or four years. The Mariners, if you count them as small market, will at least be interesting for the next three or four years.

The big disadvantage for teams like the Angels is they HAVE to compete every year. They have to trade for Vernon Wells (or whatever), because top-tier teams don't rebuild. That leads to a lot of long-term burdens, one of which could very easily turn out to be Albert Pujols. The Rays, the Padres, the Blue Jays -- they never have to do this. They can be patient and use their resources a lot more efficiently. Smart small-market teams are like gerrymandered political districts, I think. That's a metaphor that just occurred to me. It still needs to be developed. (Sam Miller)

Ok, I get my season ticket invoice in the mail and it's up 4% or so. My favortie team let aramis ramirez and carlos pena go, and have signed david dejesus and trade for ian stewart. No Yu Darvish. No Albert Pujols. Prince Fielder is a pipe dream. Is there any reason I should pay near the highest ticket prices in baseball for a team that's obviously going to be just better than astros awful in 2012?(Look Like I'm 3k Richer from Chicago)

Easy, obvious one to get you started. What's your opinion on Mike Matheny as TLR replacement in St. Louis?(Bill from New Mexico)

Well, I'm not sure if any managerial choice evaluation is easy or obvious, especially for a guy who has zero prior managing experience, but I don't think Matheny is necessarily a bad choice. Yes, there's the experience thing, but he is well-liked within the organization, by fans, and by the players, which is important. He's also a former catcher with a high baseball IQ. Whether or not he'll make the kinds of moves we sabermetric types like to see from a manager is yet to be seen. Former player types generally don't tend to, but it's not as if the MLB managerial bar is set super high in this regard. Mozeliak said he'll talk with him and provide him with important data to help him make decisions, so I think Matheny will be a good enough choice. The one drawback you could maybe point to is that Albert Pujols reportedly would have preferred Oquendo, though making a managerial decision based on one player-especially one you could lose anyway-probably isn't good policy. (Derek Carty)

Please tell my St. Louis brethren that not signing Pujols by the beginning of spring training is not the end of the world. The St. Louis organization frequently does the right thing with respect to its players, and if some team wants to pay Pujols 30 million for 10 years, congrats to Pujols, but the St. Louis Cardinals are not that dumb. (chaneyhey from st. louis)

I'm convinced a $300 million contract would probably overburden the Cardinals in a decade. I'm not sure that's what he will actually get, either. That's determined by how many teams could credibly considered bidders for his services and what their willingness to pay is. But could the Cardinals be a winning baseball team without Albert Pujols? Sure.

Of course, all that is a totally separate consideration from whether they should get a deal done before he reports to spring training. They will still have time after the season, and as I wrote last week, the deadline itself is much softer than it appears. (Tommy Bennett)

So, I've joined a brand spanking new Scoresheet-type league, and we are having our initial player free agent bidding process starting next week. Everyone from Bryce Harper to Albert Pujols is available. So, put on your GM hat for a moment . . . give me some guiding principles for roster construction of an "expansion" team.(dianagramr from NYC)

1) There's a baseball team in your city and you like baseball.
2) You want their current FO to have the time to build them back up, and your money helps encourage ownership to be patient with them.
3) Albert Pujols comes to town nine times this year. (Matt Swartz)

I know it's a slippery slope, but doesn't that make the achievements of someone like Pujols in a neutral hitting or even pitching friendly environment, that much more deserving?(Ben from Colorado Springs)

In a relative sense, yes. Any methodology that spits back "Albert Pujols is really good" is probably doing at least a few things right. Look, Pujols had his worst season probably ever, and he still hit .312/.414/.596. He has won (and will continue to win) lots of MVP awards. This just wasn't his year. But he definitely gets to gain a little ground on Gonzalez and Votto for the park adjustments. (Tommy Bennett)

We may not need to care about what the BBWAA votes on in terms of the MVP, but doesn't it bother you that many of those outside of the BBWAA, who claim to be enlightened due to stats, just misuse advanced statistics in the same way that the more mainstream, old-school camp misuses older, less complicated metrics?
Colin Wyers brought up a very good point in a recent article about how people adhered too strictly to the decimal point on something like WARP or WAR, given that the data contained within them was not perfect. So why is it that so many people sneer when someone says Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols have all basically been the same player in 2010?(Marc from I'm In Your Internets)

It kind of bothers me, but it doesn't keep me up at night (at least, not to the extent that old movies do). It's a little frustrating that a primitive wrong has been replaced by a more advanced wrong, in some circles, but I'd still consider it progress. Things are moving in the right direction, don't you think?

As for your second question--well, people like definitive answers, and WAR(P) seems to offer them, if one doesn't bother to look too hard. Maybe it's a lack of sabermetric education. (Ben Lindbergh)

I'm 2 points out of 1st with a week to go in the season. Who should I pick up for the last week that's going to put me over the top? I need someone who will hit HR's, score and knock in runs.(Swingingbunts from NY)

Hi Marc ... thanks for the chat:
1) Derek Jeter will sign a ___ year contract with the Yanks for an AAV of ___.
2) (True or False) Albert Pujols will one of the two highest-paid players in Majors when he signs his next contract?
3) Worst facial hair in Majors: Jenks, Werth, Garza, other?(dianagramr from NYC)

It's still Votto for me, though if Tulowitzki continues to make up for the month he missed in a single month he's an intriguing candidate for me. I think of it this way--they have very similar lines, and while Tulowitzki is a shortstop and maybe should get some extra credit for that, Votto has played all season. If Tulowitzki hadn't missed a month I would think more of him, but again, it's really close for me even with that, and I'm giving Votto the edge based solely on playing time. (Marc Normandin)

1) Will Haren and Oswalt get traded? 2) What teams will pick them up? 3) Care for a heat peanut?(Heat Peanuts from bag)

It sounds as though at least one of them will get dealt. I have a hard time imagining the Cardinals emerging with either, though, especially if they need take on salary long-term because of their situation with Albert Pujols.

I still think the Phillies come out with Oswalt, and that it's probably not a great idea because that team's ship may have sailed as far as their 2010 chances. (Jay Jaffe)

Sell high on Strasburg now? What are some good trade targets in terms of bats?(800 pound gorilla from In the room)

If you're going to sell on Strasburg, you need to set your sights so unrealistically high that you can giggle about pulling it off. Like Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols high. Just to see what happens. (Marc Normandin)

Is Scott Boras making a short-sided proclamation by encouraging teams to move Bryce Harper out from behind the plate? Assuming his bat develops into anything short of Albert Pujols (seems like a safe bet) wouldn't his value as a catcher earn him much more long-term than if he was a right fielder or third baseman?(David Vines from NYC)

The situation isn't entirely dissimilar from Jesus Montero's. The deal is that they guy can flat rake, and the catching ability is more of a question mark. By moving him, teams can lock in the return earlier, which is a reasonable goal considering most GMs don't spend 10 years with the same team (long enough to see him mature as a catcher).

For Boras, it makes perfect sense to accelerate his development, because it would mean he'd reach free agency in his late 20s and make a gajillion dollars. (Tommy Bennett)

Reading Steven Goldmanīs "super-utility all star lineup" I couldnīt help but notice Albert Pujolsī 2001 season should have been listed. The guy hit 329/403/610 (not even to mention he was a rookie) while splitting time between third base (52g), left field (37g), right field (32g) and first base (32g). Any other super subs to add to the team? (Guillermo from Montevideo)

Good call on Albert. I feel uncomfortable with any super-utility list that doesn't include Brooks Kieschnick -- everyday player or not, that experiment was a hell of a lot of fun. (Shawn Hoffman)

What should be the terms of the Cardinals' opening contract salvo to the agent representing Albert Pujols? Would you front-load/back-load it?(Hammer from Pumps & A Bump)

I'd probably try to front-load it, but the best you're going to get is a straight pro rata deal (a la Mauer). He's going to get at least $200 million, but I'd probably start below there because the Cardinals don't have quite that much money. (Tommy Bennett)

Okay, so in what universe exactly would a Pujols for Howard deal actually happen? Would we all be wearing evil goatees?(Tim from Tampa)

Let's strip away the names Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols for a moment. A team with a view to win now upgrades one of their position players to a nicer model on a shorter-term contract, even despite the fact that he'd be a two-years-and-gone guy. The other team is in some longer-term financial difficulty and realizes they won't be able to sign their really good player. So, they trade for a slight downgrade who's a little more financially manageable for them and can be signed longer-term so that they don't completely lose out if the original guy leaves in two years. These trades happen from time to time, but they're usually among mid-range players. That said, I don't think this particular deal will happen, but I don't think it's illogical, Captain. (Russell A. Carleton)

In the AL: it's predictable and boring, but A-Rod is healthy... in the non-Yankee division? Victor Martinez? I'm trying desperately to come up with names that weren't in the top 7 of last year's ballot so I can appear hip and trendy. The sad truth is that if you want a pre-season top 5, look at the post-season top five from last year. (Russell A. Carleton)

Do the Cards have the depth to withstand an injury to one of their Big 4(Pujols, Carp, Wainwright, Holliday)?(Matt from Chicago)

Does anyone have the depth to withstand losing Albert Pujols? They're still a decent team without one of those four guys, and they play in a division that always seems to come down to "who doesn't want this division title least?" But the Brewers are on the ascent and the Cubs, even with as many problems as they have, are still a force. They get knocked down from favorites to win the division to neck-and-neck fighters for the crown. (Russell A. Carleton)

Hey fellow Twit. Why do you think fewer MLB players, percentage wise, use Twitter than those in the NBA? Are there general inherent personality differences between sports that would lend itself to social media? (Tom Haberstroh from CT)

I think at both levels what you see is a certain degree of reluctance from the league's stars to participate in social media. You don't see LeBron James on Twitter, and you don't see Albert Pujols on Twitter. I think more role players are getting involved in both sports, but to the degree there is a difference I think it's just because any new service will break in by social group, and it just hasn't reached critical mass among baseball players.

(I'll just add that Tom is from HoopData and will be chatting tomorrow over at Basketball Prospectus starting at 3pm 11am, and I recommend you all join him for that) (Tommy Bennett)

That'll only be a problem if the economy doesn't start growing again, or if MLB just doesn't grow over the next few years, for whatever reason. In fact, if I were them I'd be trying to get Albert signed right now, because it's entirely possible that the market will be in much better shape next winter. (Shawn Hoffman)

"but the players you mention have been about as good at what they do as Tiger has at what he does" Really? Tiger is probably the greatest golfer who has ever played. His ten year stretch of dominance is basically unprecedented. I don't see how any of the players mentioned (or for that matter anyone in any sport) have had a 00s that comes even close to that. There have been other great hitters/relievers/pitchers in other decades ya know.(Alex from SF, CA)

Like I said, it's difficult if not impossible to compare team vs. individual sports, but both Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols have shots at breaking Barry Bonds' all-time home run record and winding up as arguably the best player ever at their position. Mariano Rivera already is, without argument, the best at his, and has been so for a stunningly long time and in particular, when the heat was at its hottest (the postseason) -- though it's admittedly a lesser accomplishment than being an everyday player or even a starter. (Jay Jaffe)

Best album of the year:________ ; Best song of the year: _________. Bonus question: Is Kid A the Michael Jordan & Albert Pujols of the decade in music? I say yes. (Jim Clancy from Exhibition Stadium)

I have no idea. I'm so not hip. I used to be the hippest guy in the room. I'm the guy who saw the Pixies at The Rathskeller in Boston with maybe 18 other people. I'm the guys who had bootleg tapes from Pavement before they had a record. At some point, when it comes to music, you kind of shut it down at lock in your tastes. It's part of being 40 I guess, but many of my friends are in the same place. Also, Radiohead tends to get horribly overrated. (Kevin Goldstein)

Do you think the Cardinals would be better off with Holliday or Beltre and a 2nd tier starting pitcher?(jbuofm from Peoria)

Seeing as they are more than capable of turning garbage into 2nd tier starting pitchers, Holliday, as he could provide some protection for Albert Pujols and potentially prevent pitch-arounds to get to a regressed Ryan Ludwick. (Eric Seidman)

I know he's not a free agent this offseason, but what do you see happening with Albert Pujols? Can the Cards sign him to an A-Rod-type deal and still have the money to field a perennial contender that can not only capture the NL Central title, but go deep into the playoffs?(Eric from Denver)

The Cardinals' problem isn't going to be money, but talent. They haven't done a real good job of integrating young players into their roster, and they've been drafting so low in the first round that they haven't had the shot at high-impact talent at the top of the draft. They can afford to pay Pujols $25-30MM/year, and still have $80-90 million for everyone else; the question is can they distribute that $80-90 million optimally, with a number of low-paid producers supporting a few other high-dollar players. (Joe Sheehan)

I know you're really just trying to ask if I think whether or not a) Matt Kemp has gone unnoticed or b) if anyone on the Dodgers deserves the MVP, but I am not a fan of such hypotheticals. I mean, this isn't exactly akin to "Albert Pujols: MVP candidate if Barry Bonds were not in the league?" circa 2001-04. Say Pujols isn't in baseball. The Cardinals aren't going to be nearly as effective, making them one of those easy-to-beat-up-on teams, which could mean the Brewers and Cubs vault to the top of the standings, and then Braun/Fielder/Lee might be in line for MVP consideration. (Eric Seidman)

Odds that Holliay resigns with the Cards in the off-season?(NTubrinski29 from St. Loo)

Sadly, I think they improve by the day. He's been quoted recently as saying Albert Pujols is the greatest player in the history of baseball. I think playing alongside him might be appealing to him. (Marc Normandin)

In all honesty, that's a tough question, because the answer has much to do with how well Reyes and Beltran rebound from their injuries. If they don't, you'd have to think offense is a priority, but we know that the rotation needs serious help as well. I don't know that they have the talent to acquire a Roy Halladay in trade, and the free agent class just isn't terribly appealing either. The bottom line is that it could be a grim winter for Mets fans. (Jay Jaffe)

Oh -- good question. The AP is a document that shows the date of each test and the result. WADA uses it with most Olympic athletes and it has to be presented at some tournaments to show "good standing." Baseball could do the same thing with a document or even a website. Wouldn't it have been better to have the Inquirer ask "hey, some blogger says you might have done steroids" and have Ibanez pull out a document that said "Ibanez, tested 3/23 clean, 5/10 clean" etc. Heck, just put up the negative results on MLB.com. I don't see a valid argument that a negative(clean) test would be an invasion of privacy. How about this -- instead of the crappy PSA's baseball has now, why not have Albert Pujols stand up on camera and show the fifteen or so negative tests he's taken. (Yes, you could say that Manny Ramirez also has a lot of negatives and that one positive ...) (Will Carroll)

"How about this -- instead of the crappy PSA's baseball has now, why not have Albert Pujols stand up on camera and show the fifteen or so negative tests he's taken."
=================
I can see it now, the newest roto category, "percentage of clean tests" ...(dianagramr from Cubehenge)

Well ... that's kind of like saying a NASCAR driver needs a high percentage of left turns. It's that one right one that can screw things up. (Will Carroll)

Is Roy Halladay baseball's best pitcher? It's not like he hasn't been doing it for a long period of time, and I figure he's got to be given some extra credit for the division he pitches in as well as his ability to pitch more innings than any one else.(blaseta from Calgary)

Just got a tweet that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder would like to have a word with you regarding your comments about the Cubs. Why is it more likely that they and their buddies will crater than that the Cubs will continuing being what they've been?(Bill from New Mexico)

In my opinion, the Cardinals need every single start from Chris Carpenter from here on out to have a fighting chance at the playoffs. And as far as the Brewers go, I mentioned earlier that acquiring a top-tier pitcher might actually put them ahead of the Cubs. But I get a bit wary when I see that four of their five rotation spots are filled by the underachieving Dave Bush, back-end extraordinaire Braden Looper, the disappointing Manny Parra, and the hang-it-up-already Jeff Suppan. (Eric Seidman)

Cheerio, I probably have the distinction of being the only Pittsburgh Pirates fan in the UK (began following baseball in 1990.) I thought we'd have to wait until the arrivals of Alvarez and McCutchen to have any hope, but the pitching's been great this year aside from one bad Ian Snell start where he was victimized by Albert Pujols, and the Bucs are already leading their home opener 4-0. Have Maholm and Duke turned the corner? I could see a (barely) winning season with some solid pitching.(Horace Steenblatter from London, England, UK)

Wow, a Bucs fan in the UK? I suppose I can add it to my now-I've-seen-everything list.

Maholm had a pretty decent 2008 season camouflaged by a low win total (9). If I'm a Pirates fan I'd be happy with a repeat of that. The reports regarding Duke out of spring training said he had tweaked his delivery based upon reviewing video of his rookie season. I'd be optimistic for some improvement there. But with the erratic Snell, as well as Ohlendorf and Karstens at the back of the rotation, i'm afraid .500 is a pipe dream at the moment. (Jay Jaffe)

Before I answer, let me acknowledge that (a) Jim Rice was my favorite player growing up, and (b) I'm a "big Hall" kind of guy.

With that context, I disagree with what seems to be the prevailing sabermetric opinion, including here at BP, that Rice was obviously unworthy as a HOF selection. I don't think he's a no-brainer Hall of Famer, but I think he has a legitimate argument.

Rice's case is obviously one built on peak value, not career length. Also, the argument has been that he is less valuable according to sabermetric models than how he was regarded at the time. His OBP, home park, double-play totals, and positional adjustments are counterbalanced by the notion that he was the most "feared" hitter or his day. But how do you actually assess how "feared" he was, and how that reputation played out in his peak value.

I actually did some work on this back when the election was on people's minds. Rice had 6 Top 10 finishes in the MVP voting.

Among players with exactly 6 Top 10 finishes, 11 are in the HOF, 6 are active or too recent, and only 4 are not in the Hall (Vern Stephens, Dave Parker, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff). Even among those with just 5 such finishes, the ratio is 17 HOF, 6 not HOF, 5 active. There's a reasonable case that players with Rice-like peaks get into the Hall about 2/3rd of the time.

Of course, all of Rice's Top 10 finishes were in fact Top 5 finishes. All of the players with 6 such rankings are in the Hall (4) or obviously qualified barring PED-externalities (Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, A-Rod). Of those with exactly 5 Top 5 MVP years, only Pete Rose and Dave Parker aren't in the Hall or active.

Sorry for taking so much time to answer this one, but I think Rice looks better through contemporary views than through a modern analytical lens, and I don't think it's silly to consider that perspective. (Keith Woolner)

Steven -- I know in the past, some have raised the issue of the annual being somewhat sloppy in terms of typographical errors and the like. I know that the writing and editing time is fairly condensed, but what (if anything) have you done this year to address those complaints/concerns?(Matt from Chicago)

Matt, I'm glad you asked that question. Copy-editing is a highly technical skill, and to the extent that Christina and I have expertise in anything, it's not focused in that direction. Our main job is to make sure that the baby is born, not that its hair is combed. We fix what we catch, which is a lot, but given that we're dealing with a 450,000-word (plus numbers) MS that comes together in only a few weeks, there's always more -- but again, our focus is on getting it all assembled and making sure we don't leave out the Cardinals chapter, or leave Albert Pujols out of the Cardinals chapter (times 30), and fishing Nate off the talk show circuit so we can have PECOTAs in the book, and so forth. A copy editor does come in later, but because of the haste with which the book is assembled, they do more of a copy-skim than a full edit.

I think this is always going to be something of a problem, and it frustrates the heck out of me. The trade-off we could make is to start assembling the book earlier, but that would mean a less timely product - and you know that we pride ourselves on being the last of these books to go to press (ours went out on 1/15). All I can ask is that you be patient with us and know that it's not about sloppiness, and not about a lack of care, but simply the result of the way the process takes place. (Steven Goldman)

"It's hard to do an article on 'Pujols was better than everyone else and the writers got it right.'"
Is that why things tend to get a little negative around here? Nobody is willing to write an article that's not critical of the rest of the baseball world?(drewfuss from kc)

That's not it at all. I'm just saying there's nothing interesting to write. It's not exactly breaking news that Pujols is the best player in baseball, is it? Warren Buffett -- still rich! Stacy London -- still hot! Albert Pujols -- still good! (Will Carroll)

If they can keep the rotation healthy for once, this is a team that can do some serious damage. Ricky Nolasco is true ace material, and Josh Johnson's pretty damn good himself. If Anibal Sanchez can at least settle in as a #3, the rotation will be an improvement on this year's mess, one that started with Mark Hendrickson involved. Hanley Ramirez improved on his defense, making him even more valuable, and is one of the top players in the game--possibly #2 in overall production next to the peerless Albert Pujols. I like them more for 2009 than I did for 2008, given the problems and injuries in their rotation. That's the key to the whole team. as their lineup is good enough to be carried by a great set of starters. (Marc Normandin)

Geovany Soto has the best stats for any NL rookie, and he's just called a no hitter and a one hitter in back to back games. Has there been an easier Rookie of the Year choice lately?(Rob from Bloomington, IL)

Who is the youngest guaranteed Hall of Famer in baseball right now? A-Rod?(mattymatty from Philly)

Hmmm... Alex Rodriguez is 33, but Albert Pujols is just 28 and well on his way, though technically he'd need two more seasons to reach the 10 year minimum. Johan Santana is 29 and has two Cy Youngs under his belt; he might even slip in a third this year if the voters can overlook the fact that he's "only" got 13 wins (yeah, surrrrrrre). I don't have my JAWS spreadsheet open at the moment on this wheezing litle laptop but I think both of them have peak WARP scores equivalent to the average Hall of Famer at their positions. That's not a guarantee, but it's some food for thought. (Jay Jaffe)

Word out of St. Louis suggests that the Cardinals may get Albert Pujols back as early as Thursday. First, is the guy human? Second, does he give them a chance to catch the Cubs? I'm with Will: no matter how good you think Pujols is, he's STILL underrated.(Bill from New Mexico)

No, he is not human. I've felt since his rookie season that someone dropped him out of a spaceship because hitting isn't as easy as he makes it look. In fairness, Pujols is one of the hardest workers in the game. He's always either studying video or working out or taking extra hitter before games. Yes, he does give the Cardinals a chance to stay in the race but I still think the Cubs are just too strong in the long haul. (John Perrotto)

What is the long-term prognosis for Albert Pujols. My understanding is that he has a "high grade" tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL). What happens after the rest of the UCL tears? Should happen this season. If TJ surgery, what is the prognosis for 2009? Will surgery gives us a healthy Albert? Thank you.
(Woodman from Northeast)

Have you SEEN him? He's really, really good and has been playing with the UCL tear since ... 2003? 2004? I can remember talking with a Cards official about this at the pre-Katrina New Orleans Winter Meetings. If he has the surgery in say ... August or September, he'd be back for the start of 09. The injury affects his throwing and nothing else. I don't see any reason short of a rupture to do it. (Will Carroll)

Miguel Tejada just got two years older:
http://tinyurl.com/6gfzre
This worsens your (and PECOTA's) opinion of him considerably, yes?(TheDumbSmartGuy from Cambridge, MA)

I'm utterly unsurprised, both based on rumors that had been circulating about him for years and his career track. And I do think it will harm his PECOTA. People ask sometimes: what if Albert Pujols turned out to be two years older? For Pujols, it wouldn't matter very much in the near-term, because he's in the peak of his career, and the age curve for players at the peak of their career is very flat. But for Tejada, it will do some damage. (Nate Silver)

Hi, Will. Really enjoying BP during the off-season. I've got two fantasy drafts on Sunday and am wondering how risky you think it will be to draft Albert Pujols in the first round. I suspect he'll drop to #10 in one of my leagues and I'm feeling lucky. What do you think?(Beau Karch from Manhattan)

I've taken Pujols as high as #7 and would likely take him as high as #5 if I'd had a pick in that area. (I had a #3, where I took Crawford.) Pujols' elbow is no different than it was last year. The change in risk is that the team might be out of it at the break, forcing Pujols to make a decision on surgery for his foot and elbow. In the NL Central, I'll take that risk. (Will Carroll)

PECOTA tends to underestimate playing time for durable players. Is that just the occasional major injury among their comps bringing down the average?(Evan from Vancouver, BC)

This is going to sound awfully combative/defensive, but on what basis does PECOTA underestimate playing time for those players? I would argue that the conventional wisdom tends to overestimate the extent to which playing time even for the more durable players is a certainty. As we see with the Albert Pujols question, for instance -- or as we saw with someone with Derrek Lee a couple of years ago, who was one of the most durable players around, or Derek Jeter in 2003 -- injuries are a fact of life, even for the most durable athlete. And this is especially true once a player enters his 30s. (Nate Silver)

Which player do you think will be the biggest fantasy disappointment this year?(Jessica from NYC)

Albert Pujols if he ends up opting for surgery once the Cardinals realize they aren't going to compete in the Central.

I thought they were better than they ended up playing last year, but injuries and complete busts wiped them out too. I can't see Pujols playing through pain all year if surgery is going to make them a better team in 2009. (Marc Normandin)

Joe, RE: players having a Hall of Fame peak vs. those that are able to sustain it into a Hall of Fame career, my only moment of weakness in denying the former comes when thinking about a player like Albert Pujols. If he began his decline phase in '08 and retired in '13, wouldn't you still FEEL like he should be HOFer based on his dominance through '08, or are you able to eliminate feeling from the process altogether?(Ed D. from Chicago)

Hypotheticals are a slippery slope. If Jim Rice's peak looked like Albert Pujols', then he'd be in already. Pujols is a Hall of Famer as long as he takes the field in two more seasons.

Plenty of guys are in the Hall just for peak performance. Rice's peak simply doesn't rise to that level.

I make this point every year: it is NOT an insult to say that a guy is not one of the 250-odd best players in baseball history. Someone has to be #265. (Joe Sheehan)

How can you possibly believe in the closer myth to the tune of the difference between a backup catcher and Albert Pujols, which is basically the difference between Howard vs LHP and vs. RHP? The decision to let Street pitch there might be the single worst tactical decision you can make. I can't think of a bunt, a lineup call, a pitching change worth that much RE.

If this guy wins manager of the year, I'm quittin' show business.(Joe Sheehan)

David, we have to see how things end. Certainly if the Rays win the World Series you'd have to qualify this year as somewhat historic given how this franchise got itself off the deck. Beyond that, though, we lacked teams that were historically dominant or even historically bad. Nor have we had individual seasons that are likely to stick in history, perhaps with the exception of Albert Pujols, and even then, his 2008 will be just one more great year in his quiver of great years. (Steven Goldman)

Speaking of Pujols, he had surgery today in news that no one seems to be noticing. He had a nerve transposition, not Tommy John, but the surgeries are related. Think about this -- Tommy John, who needed transposition surgery himself, compared the pain he was in from it to being hit on the funny bone constantly.

Albert Pujols is the best player in the league playing through that. (Will Carroll)

Speaking of Mickey Mantle, btw, since he has two spots in the top ten VORP seasons going back to 1954, Albert Pujols' 2008 is the second best season of his career, 23rd best of all time going back to '54 (18th best non-Bonds year, just to throw some red meat out there). Had to believe there's any argument about his MVP-ness. (Steven Goldman)