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Friday, 30 October 2015

With the Kharif sowing season almost on the verge of completion and early harvest arriving in the market, we at NBHC are releasing our Final Kharif Crop Estimate - 2015-16. As per our analysis and industry’s feedback on the crop progress and the status of the current crop harvest, the total Kharif Cereals production is likely to decline by 3.72 per cent. The reason for the shortfall is very much evident. The current season the monsoon had arrived and spread all over India almost a month ahead of the scheduled time, but with the backdrop of El Nino (one of the strongest since 1997) and unusual warming of the Indian Ocean Dipole the monsoon fell short by 14 per cent on the seasonal basis with increased inequitable distribution. A situation of meteorological drought in regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana had taken a big toll on the Kharif crops in these regions. Based on the above conditions we have come to a conclusion that the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2015-16 would be on the lower side compared to 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Our first report was released on 22nd August 2015. In our first report we had estimated a drop in the acreage for Maize, Bajra, Pulses, Cotton and Sugarcane. We stick to our estimate of lower acreage on the above crops with mild adjustments.

As per our estimates, the overall cereals production for the 2015-16 is expected to be marginally down about 3.72 per cent over 2014-15 (116.35 million MT against 120.68 million MT). Amongst the cereals, Maize is expected to decline by 25.88 per cent to 13.02 million MT and Bajra is expected to decline by 14.24 per cent to 7.92 million MT. For Rice, we are estimating a marginal drop in the production by about 6.72 per cent owing to decline in the productivity in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and prevalence of dry weather in major growing areas.

In the pulses sector, amidst extreme dry conditions and lack of rains, there was a significant drop in the acreage by 10.29 per cent. The most suffered crop in terms of growth was Moong followed by Urad and Tur (Pigeon pea) whose area declined by 9.78 per cent, 8.78 per cent and 4.26 per cent respectively. As per our estimate, Tur production for the year 2015-16 is expected to decline by 26.56 per cent to 2.20 million MT over 2014-15 whereas the production of Urad and Moong is likely to decline marginally by 44.12 per cent and 45.98 per cent to 0.88 million MT and 0.58 million MT respectively. Overall, the total Kharif pulses production is likely to decline marginally by 22.90 per cent over last year.

We stand by our earlier estimate of drop in the overall oil seed production with further reduction in crop size. Maximum decline of 27.76 per cent is expected in case of soybean and 9.07 per cent in case of groundnut.

In the current cropping season, we continue with our negative outlook in terms of area and production. In sugarcane, the production is likely to decline marginally by 5.53 per cent and in cotton the production is likely to decline by 21.78 per cent over last year.