After the first week of the 2004 season, Scott Rolen is leading the major leagues in home runs (4), runs (7), and RBI (13). Is this the year Rolen has an MVP-type year and finally gets his due?

Scott Bruce Rolen, who graduated from Jasper (Ind.) High School in 1993, won the state's "Mr. Baseball" honor given to the top high school player. Although Scott received several basketball scholarship offers from Oklahoma State and Georgia (among others), he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies after being drafted in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft.

Rolen progressed through the Philly farm system at a fast pace before emerging as the National League Rookie of the Year in 1997. However, Rolen never quite lived up to being "the next Mike Schmidt" and was traded in July 2002 from the Phillies along with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith. That's right--Polanco, Timlin, and Smith. And don't forget the money that the Phillies threw into the deal to even things out.

Although Rolen has never batted .300 or hit more than 31 HR in a season, he has produced at a consistently high level over the first seven-plus years of his career.

Rolen's adjusted on-base plus slugging average (OPS+) has averaged 128, and it has ranged from 121 to 139 every season. The five-time Gold Glove winner has also averaged 25 Win Shares per year and already has a total of 176 for his career.

The righthanded-hitting Rolen, who has yet to lead the league in any hitting category or play in a World Series, hasn't performed under the limelight in Philadelphia and St. Louis. Nonetheless, the 6'4", 240-pound Rolen has been a productive hitter, an excellent third baseman, and a good baserunner.

Rolen, who turned 29 years old last week, may, in fact, be one of the top ten third basemen in baseball history through age 28.

Rolen slips to 17th under this method but is not far behind many legends of the game. Hmmm...seeing Bob Horner's name on that list reminds me that it's probably time to unload those rookie cards I still own.

Rolen ranks 10th in runs created and 14th in runs created vs. the league average (see below).

Given that Rolen is a superior-fielding third baseman to those players on the above lists (with the exception of Schmidt), it would be fair to conclude that he is definitely one of the top all-round 3B ever through the age of 28.

According to Bill James' similarity scores, Rolen's closest comps from an offensive standpoint are as follows:

The players with similarity scores above 900 are considered to be "truly similar" based on James' definitions. Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, and Dale Murphy are or were top-notch offensive players. What separates Rolen from the pack is his defensive position. He is probably most similar to Jones given that the latter also played third base through the age of 29. Jones has been better with the bat and Rolen has been better with the glove.

So maybe he's Ron Santo instead of Mike Schmidt. The Cardinals aren't complaining. Rolen's excellence in Philly was veiled only by the expectations he shouldered. He's a complete ballplayer and an elite performer. He'll have many more fine seasons like this past one.

There is no question that Schmidt was a better home run slugger than Rolen through age 28. However, Schmidt didn't reach the 40-HR plateau until he turned 29. Could this be the year Rolen steps it up and hits 40? If so, look for the Schmidt comparisons to re-emerge as Michael Jack followed his 45-HR season in 1979 at the age of 29 with 48-31-35-40-36-33-37-35.

Like the authors of Baseball Prospectus, I think Rolen is more like Santo than Schmidt. That said, I think we should leave open the possibility that Rolen could be entering his prime power seasons and may end up being compared once again to the best third baseman in baseball history.

Comments

Great piece on Rolen. The numbers sure show how underrated he is and ouch on that Phillies trade.