Monday, August 23, 2010

SUMMARY:- A quiet expiration Friday overcomes a very weak start as SP500 recovers to hold 1070, and importantly, stay inside the range.- Initial bias was lower with the Friday news vacuum, but once again stocks recover. More than end of the week short covering?- Bonds surging again, dollar ready to rally further, but LIBOR is falling quickly. If not the US, then what country in Europe?- Plenty of gloom, but think with your head, not your guts: look at leadership and the patterns. They are still bullish.

Lots of gloom, surging bonds, rallying dollar, economic weakness, but stocks hold the line at support.

Lots of gloom, surging bonds, rallying dollar, economic weakness, but stocks hold the line at support.

It is going to be a bit different tonight. I will pull from many different areas to give a picture of what is happening with the markets in the world right now. I want to show how they dovetail together and foreshadow what is coming down the road. It may not be what you expect, and it is definitely not what the mainstream is reporting with respect to the world economies and markets.

I will start by just going over the basics. Today was a quiet Friday expiration. A very weak start, but then a recovery as SP500 held the 1070 level. Stocks started weak and sold into mid-morning bottoming right before lunch once again. SP500 undercut the 1070 level. Indeed, it tested it as it tried to bounce in the morning but failed twice. It held 1064 and then started to work its way back up with something of an intraday inverted head and shoulders. It broke through 1070 and managed to hold on into the close by the skin of its teeth at 1071-1072. NASDAQ turned slightly positive. The Dow came back to a -0.5% loss after impressive triple-digit losses earlier. SP500 closed negative, but with only a -0.37% decline, it was not nearly as bad as it had been. SOX finished positive with almost a +0.5% gain. The small caps were basically flat. It was a mixed market. Growth was in the lead versus the SP500, which really has the best-looking pattern of the group right now. Even after Friday when it was lagging, it still has positives to it. It reached down intraday, but it again found buyers and rallied back to hold 1070. That was important, but it is extremely important that it is still holding in its trading range.

There has been a lot of bad news in the last couple of weeks. The market has sold off on that news, but it has not broken down. There was significantly bad news (like the Philly Fed on Thursday) that could have broken the market's back, but it did not break through intermediate support at 1070. It is still well off the bottom of the range, including the February low as well as the May and June lows and not to mention the July selloff that was a false breakdown and reversed the SP500 and the rest of the market.

The other indices are showing the same kind of fortitude, although they may not be in as good a position as SP500. Nonetheless, they are holding within their range. Again, that is significant given all of the negatives impacting the market over the past few weeks. Even with all the negatives that hit, we did have the rally on earnings that brought stocks back into the top of the range. Now they are having their downside move on a bout of some bad news, but it did not sink the market.

I am making a big deal out of the SP500 rallying back to hold 1070 on Friday. You may ask if that was just short covering after a week that saw a bloody Thursday. No doubt there was some short covering. No doubt some of the people who sold on Thursday and saw their positions slide further on Friday morning banked some profit. That helped drive things back up as they bought stocks to cover their short positions, but that is not the end of the story. I will go into this more when I discuss leadership. For now, remember that SP500 it did hold 1070 on the day, but that it is within an overall larger trading range. Indeed, it is well off the bottom of its trading range.

OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. There has been the selloff, a hold at support a very logical level for it to hold and an oversold bounce. There has been a pullback this week to test that bounce. It held the near term support at the 10 day EMA and 18 day EMA, showing doji on both Wednesday and Thursday. Friday there was sharp break to the upside, and the dollar traded below 1.27 Euro at one point. It was down to 1.269 (and less) on the session. By the close, it could not hold off all of the gain (1.2711 Euro versus 1.2819 Thursday). Off its peak, but it closed above the 50 day EMA. It had a very solid bounce after this short flag pattern that consolidated the initial break off the February and March support level and it came back to test that.

Dollars are acting as a safe haven again. We last saw that in April and May when Europe was falling off the table. The dollar then sold June to mid August when it was decided that the European woes were overblown. Indeed, Germany is showing good GDP growth. You would think those fear were overblown and the dollar was artificially inflated by those fears. Now the dollar is moving back up. Could it be on some the weaker US data? It could, but why would people buy US dollars if they thought the problem was with the US economy? If the US economy goes downhill, the Fed will do everything it can to keep the money supply plentiful and growing and that works adversely to the value of the dollar. The dollar should be going down if we are worried about the US economy, but it is going back up. Indeed, it started to break higher out of its own inverted head and shoulders pattern after the selloff.

How many times have we seen this pattern in plays in this market? We have many plays on the report with this pattern, and now the dollar is showing it. AMZN formed an inverted head and shoulders and broke higher. Now it is testing and ready to move again. BEN had a selloff, an inverted head and shoulders, and now a break to the upside. GMCR is not as clear, but you can see the selloff, the formation of the head and shoulders, and the break higher. JOYG: Shoulder, head, shoulders, and the break higher. NTGR shows a very clear inverted head and shoulders, a breakout, and now it is testing. SCHN has the inverted head and shoulders, a break to the upside, and you could even say it is forming a new shoulder now. WEBMD: inverted head and shoulders, test, and then a break to the upside.

There are more than this, but I am just giving an idea what is out there. You cannot swing a dead cat without hitting a stock that is in either an inverted head and shoulders pattern or, more recently, forming ABCD consolidations. There are also flag consolidations, double bottoms, double bottoms with handles, cup with handles, and there have been trading ranges. These are not selloff patterns; they are accumulation patterns. They are not topping patterns. There are buyers slowly working into stocks, and they are working into them when there is a lot of gloom in the market.

Bonds. Bonds have been on fire. There was a gap higher this week, clearing this consolidation range, and surging to the upside. The 10 year was off on Friday after a tremendous run (2.61% off from the 2.57% on Thursday), but it was trading at 2.55% premarket. We made a lot of money off the TLT as it surged to the upside.

Gold. Gold rallied off of the low that was hit as Europe recovered. Higher through May, and then it turned over when it looked like Europe would recover. It has been rallying back up over the past three weeks. If the economies are better than we thought, then there is a concern about inflation. There was also a play on gold we saw during the May issues with the EU it was a safe haven out of fear. Even though gold tends to rise when there are worries of inflation and will fall with worries of deflation, it was nonetheless rising. People are flat-out scared, and they are buying gold, US bonds, and US dollars even though the US economic data has been poor and people are suggesting a double dip recession.

Oil. Oil has been falling, and that is expected if the US economy is falling. It had a sharp plunge and was down again on Friday ($73.46, -0.97). This has been quite a tumble from over $82 almost 10 points in two weeks. It hit resistance and fell. That made some sense, but now it is just tumbling further. Is it just the US, or is there something more out there?

Volume. Volume was lower at 1.9B shares on the NASDAQ. Volume was up to 1.1B on SP500. A little expiration volume came in on the NYSE.

Breadth. The A/D was flat on NASDAQ, and they held a slight 1.5:1 lead on the NYSE. Nothing major here.

CHARTS

SP500. SP500 undercut the 1070 on the low and recovered it on the close. It is maintaining its range. Volume was elevated again, but this is expiration week, so you would expect volume to be a bit higher. It was still below average. Some sellers were taking advantage, but you could say the opposite on Friday as the market bounced back on elevated volume. The buyers stepped in to support it.

NASDAQ. Similar action on the NASDAQ. It sold off but rallied back, turning slightly positive. It, too, held an interim level in its trading range, holding over the May and June lows. Not the prettiest picture, but it remains inside of its trading range with something of an inverted head and shoulders. It is the same as the SP500.

SP600. Not pretty either. It sold, undercut the recent low, and reversed. It did not quite make it positive, but it closed flat. It is trying to hold these prior lows from July and June. Small caps are struggling. Economic data has not been kind to the small caps because their bread and butter is the US economy, and it is not doing that well. Nonetheless, they are still above the February low. They never touched it on the last selling, and they remain inside their trading range.

SOX. The SOX was up on the day almost 0.5%. It is still below its trading range. It is in the lower reaches where it was testing intraday and recovering in May through July. It is not out of the woods, but looking at the SMH (the ETF for the semiconductors a broader group) it is still inside of its range. It did not get much of the bounce, but it is trying to move up again. As with all of the indices, they holding inside their four-month trading range, and that is important.

LEADERSHIP

Tonight I will look at leadership a bit differently, and I want to examine certain patterns to demonstrate a point. BEN sold off and formed the inverted head and shoulders and broke out. It is now consolidating that move with an ABCD pattern that is a consolidation pattern. What is the import of this? There is the strong move to the upside as there was in July. These are not perfect because there is this hitch in late July before the peak, but it is still the same type of move. A strong move up to the "A" point, and then it sells off and makes a lower low. There is a lower high, a lower low, and then people get worried and say the momentum is gone. The gloom rises and things do not look good. Sound familiar? That is what is happening now.

What about other stocks? BIDU was in a trading range. It broke out and surged on the news in July on the earnings runs, and then it pulled back. It pulled back, made a lower high, and it is in the process of making a lower low. Things do not look good as BIDU, one of the market leaders, falls to the wayside. Everything else looks strong. You have to recognize that this is a type of ABCD pattern. BWLD has not surged to a high like the others yet it is in the process of recovering. It did make a solid surge off the July low, and now it is making an ABCD pattern. Indeed, it broke upside and is now testing back after that initial move. It could make a break up into the gap point.

CNMD has not rallied yet either. It has made its selloff, and it is working on an inverted head and shoulders. As it is doing this, it is setting up an ABCD pattern. It is a consolidation of the July to August move, and that is setting up the shoulder for a break to the upside. Do you want more? CTSH made a nice breakout, a gap, and formed the X-to-A point. The ABCD pattern is not huge, but there it is. It started to break higher off of that this week. Now it is testing, making a higher low, and looks ready to move up as well. RIG is setting up an ABCD pattern off the breakout of this consolidation. It is not a huge runner like some of them. NTGR has a nice, inverted head and shoulders, a nice breakout, and now it is setting up an ABCD pattern. It broke higher, tested, and looks like it will be ready to make a run again. There are many of these. SID broke higher, showing an ABCD pattern.

These are consolidations. They do not mean it is an automatic run to the upside, but when you see so many of these forming, that can sit in the back of your mind. When you compile it with all the gloom in the market and the fact that the indices are holding their trading ranges (and are up inside of their trading ranges), you start to wonder what is going on. SP500 is not a perfect example, but it had its little inverted head and shoulders and a break higher. Now there is an ABCD setting up. Note where this is setting up: right at support, and right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this July to August move. Indeed, it has a little double bottom that looks to be forming at this level. I love to see those double bottoms. Note that each time it has touched it the buyers have popped it back up.

Don't Forget the Sentiment.

Another piece of data to look at is the put/call ratio in the 'Market Sentiment' section. It moved back over 1. That is showing there are more puts being bought than calls. That is not definitive in and of itself, but when leaned up with all the other indications, it suggests the gloom level is high and could be getting to the point of a turn. The market had not sold off that hard it is still in the middle of its range. The SP500 is trying to hold in the lower third of its range, and it keeps finding support at 1070. High gloom. Leaders are in accumulation patterns, and SP500 is in an accumulation pattern with a reverse head and shoulders plus the ABCD pattern.

Investors are negative on the market even when stocks are showing relatively bullish accumulation patterns. Many leaders are holding very nice gains. There are others in the industrial sector CAT, JOYG, CMI trading well up into the tops of their ranges, but they are not showing any weakness. They are not ready to roll over; indeed, they are forming the ABCD patterns I have been talking about. That is a good consolidation. It is not a lock, but when so many of these are forming and you couple that with the gloom and the indices not wanting to break down in their range, you get the idea that the stock market does not want to fall. Why does it not want to fall given the bad economic news out there?

Pulling It All Together.

This is where I try to pull it all together. US stocks are not that worried about what is going on in the US. The economic news has been worsening the entire time, and the fact that the stocks are maintaining a trading range and holding support is indicative that the market as factored in this bad news for the most part. It will knock the market around for the day of the release, but overall it has not taken the market down to new lows. With the bullish patterns you see on many of the leadership stocks, that would make you more inclined to believe that stocks may be ready to rally despite the gloom (or BECAUSE of a lot of the gloom). They may not rally from where they are right now they may test lower in the range. SP500 may come down to the May and June lows and then bounce back up. There are a lot of patterns that look about ready to go however, so it may not get much lower before it tries to rally back.

The US stock market may not break out of its base, but it wants to rally back up. It is continuing to consolidate even in the face of bad news. Given that, what is going on with bonds? Bonds are surging higher, and the dollar is rallying. What is driving people to those markets? A lot of investors were burned on stocks and do not want to go back into stocks. At the first sign of trouble, they are running into bonds. Surely some of the buying has to do with US investors being a bit jaded with the US stock market and seeking a safe place in bonds. That is great. The stock market may not be the best market. Bonds are the best market to determine the future, but the stock market is not selling off it had its selling and is trying to recover.

What else could be driving bonds? We do not know what the yield curve is because the Fed has been keeping that tamped down on the low end for a long time. It has not had a chance to invert because the Fed has already been in the game for so long, holding the short end down. It has been selling more at the short end of late, but the long end is selling more quickly. That is leading to the flatter curve, but it is not leading to an inverted curve right now. If it inverts, the US economy looks like it would be heading toward another recession, or maybe a depression this time. But it is not doing that. US bonds are rallying, and the dollar is rallying as well.

What does all this mean? It does not necessarily mean great things for the US economy, but not horrible things either. It does not mean we are going to surge higher, but it could mean the worst is over for now (although I hate to go out on THAT limb). Everyone is predicting a double dip, except the stock market is not diving lower even on bad news. With the US stock market holding in its range despite bad news, and with plenty of leadership in the market forming accumulation patterns, why are bonds rallying? Why is the dollar rallying and setting up for an even bigger rally? Looking at the chart of the TLT, back in 2008 there was a massive surge with the financial crisis. Then there was the fall off as things cooled off, and now we are seeing another rally. Indeed, we gapped through a serious resistance point this week on strong volume, and bonds were running higher. This is troubling to say the least. At the same time, LIBOR rates fell to a new low for this cycle at 0.33%. They have been dropping steadily all week about a click a day, and they are well off the peak. During this period, the LIBOR ratings were not measured in points at all. They were hugely inflated. The cost of insuring credit default swaps exploded higher to unheard-of levels, and LIBOR surged over 4% as well. A tremendous surge. This time, LIBOR is heading lower as bonds are moving higher.

That means this time it is not a financial issue. It is not a problem with banks not trusting one another and not lending. Those links in the chain have been repaired. Something else is going on here. I could be wrong, but I believe the problem lies back in Europe. I think the market in the US is probably anticipating some kind of change in the fall elections that would help combat some of what the market feels are anti-business and thus anti-US economy policies. Thus the market is consolidating but not breaking down on the economic news. As for Europe, even though Germany is strong, I think a sovereign debt issue is still ready to explode. Germany may be in great shape, but it has done things that other EU countries have not done. It has gone through its austerity program it had to absorb East Germany, after all, and get its house in order. It has done so and is doing fabulously, but Germany is not Europe. I think there is a country or two on the verge of imploding, and it will be a sovereign debt issue. It could be Spain, Italy, or Greece. Greece and Spain are considered real problems. Is there a dark horse in Portugal? The UK could flip back over as well.

I do not know which one it could be, but something a story is being told in the currency markets. The dollar is rallying again when it should be falling against the Euro. If the EU is so strong and the US is heading to a double dip, then the dollar should be falling. But it has a good bullish pattern going. I could be totally wrong, but it looks like there is a sovereign debt issue being factored in that could hit the markets by surprise given the belief Europe is in the clear. You can bet that will affect the US market. If that kind of news comes out, it is not good, but it is hard to plan on when it will come. We will have to watch the bond market and the currency markets and see how rapidly they accelerate. If they accelerate too rapidly, that is a concern and you prepare by lightening up and hedging.

With respect to the US currency, it also could mean that it has factored in all the bad news and feels like we will not have the double dip. It may feel there is a change coming in the fall with the elections that will rectify a lot of these issues. When you look at the action in US stocks you can see that it could be factoring that in and the two dovetail. That could explain the currency rally, but it still does not explain the bonds issue. We have to be cautious moving ahead. I will keep my eye on currency and bonds rates. If there is too big of a spike, we have to be cautious with our stock plays.

THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 25.49; -0.95VXN: 25.76; -1.14VXO: 25.45; -0.65

VIX. The VIX has been moving in a range, more or less holding at the 200 day EMA that is coincident with the January and February peaks. There is enough gloom in the market to keep it at a slightly elevated level. It rallied even as the market put in a bit of a gain. There are worries about just how valid any market move is. When you listen to the financial stations, you can feel the gloom out there; it is very depressing. Everyone seems convinced that the market is in trouble and we are headed for a double dip. Yet the market is holding in its range. Volatility is holding at a semi-elevated level, but there are no cracks in either.

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; +0.07

Bulls versus Bears:

Back to more bulls than bears, the 'normal' state of affairs for the market. This after a crossover and then a tie. A rare crossover a month back and it was, as s typical, a bullish scenario.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 36.7% versus 41.7%. Tumbling back down toward the 35% range, moving closer to the 35.6% hit a month back when the bulls and bears crossed over. They are starting to merge again, a good sign. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 31.1% versus 27.5%. A nice jump as the bears head for the bulls once more, no longer endangered. Moving back toward the 35.6% level hit just a few weeks before. Hit 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: +0.81 points (+0.04%) to close at 2179.76Volume: 1.936B (-3.45%)

Up Volume: 1.032B (+682.334M) Down Volume: 837.629M (-915.863M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.02 to 1Previous Session: Decliners led 4.14 to 1

There will be some important economic data with existing home sales coming out and new home sales on Wednesday. Durable goods are always important and, as always, the initial jobless claims come out on Thursday. Then we will get the second look at the GDP for Q2. It is expected to drop down to 1.4% as things have softened in the US. That is what is expected, but what can we expect from stocks? You may know where I am going with this because I have already discussed a lot of good leaders in accumulation patterns (not distribution patterns). I will be watching for the market to hold. I think the SP500 could make a stand where it is now and continue higher given its pattern as well as the pattern shown by many of the strong stocks that are not breaking down. Indeed, they are setting up accumulation of their own.

The gloom is very high. Many people think we are going into another recession, or maybe even a depression and we may. Who knows? It can happen if the shocks are bad enough. The stocks are telling us that things are not as gloomy as the financial stations would lead you to believe, however. Think with your head and not with your guts. With this market, if you always thought with our guts, you would spend a lot of time puking. You have to step back and recognize leadership patterns. You have to recognize the trading ranges, the ABCD patterns, the inverted head and shoulders, the cup with handles, and the flag patterns that have formed after good surges to the upside. These are not selloff patterns these are profit taking and accumulation patterns. They are still bullish. I will try to think with my head even though my guts may be asking if I am sure about all this. Play the percentages and good risk/reward levels. These patterns are providing that. You have good risk/reward levels in these patterns if we move in at the right time. As they set up, we want to be ready to make the moves. We have been playing these, and some of them that we are playing now have pulled back in these accumulation/consolidation patterns. We will be looking to pick up more of these leaders.

It is a wild market out there. All the markets are going in different directions, and it is leading people astray. They get overwhelmed when thinking with their guts and not their heads. Trust in the patterns that you are seeing, and trust in the fact that the market has not broken down despite bad news. We have to be cautious with respect to what bonds are doing. Maybe not as much as currency, but we need to watch it. There are issues out there we have to be cautious about. They may come from overseas surprise, surprise and not the US where everyone expects it to come from given our weakening economic data. Again, we have seen the bad data. The market has been hit with lackluster guidance, worse-than-expected leading indicators, regional manufacturing falling down, housing sales still in the toilet, and jobless claims rising to 500K on a weekly basis. This is bad, bad news, but the market is holding inside of its range. Not only that, but it is up off the bottom of the range.

That means we will continue to look for bullish patterns. We will look for opportunity to move in, and we will not forget the downside you have to be ready in case things implode. We have to go with our heads and use what we know about the market versus what our guts are telling us. Go with what you know rather than listening to the opinions of people on the financial stations who are only messing with your head. Think about it, have a great weekend, and I will see you on Monday.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2179.76

Resistance:2184 is the June gap bottom side.2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)2221 is the gap down upside point from June.The 50 day EMA at 22402245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005. The 200 day SMA at 22712275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak2292 is a low from January 20082319 from the September 2008 peak2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high2341 is the June 2010 peak2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 20082382-2395 from 2008

Support:2177 is a low from March 20082169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak 2167 from the July 2008 intraday low2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low2140 from the May and June 2010 lows2100 is the February 2010 low2061 is the July 2010 low2024 from November 20092020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks

S&P 500: Closed at 1071.69Resistance:1078 is the October range low1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)The 50 day EMA at 10961101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks1106 is the September 2008 low1114 is the November 2009 peakThe 200 day SMA at 11161119 is the early December intraday high1131 is the June 2010 peakBottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 11361133 from a September 2008 intraday low1151 is the January 2010 peak1156 is the Sept 2008 low1170 is the prior March 2010 high1174 is the May 2010 high1181 is the April selloff low1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low1040 is the May and June 2010 low1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation946 from June 2009

Dow: Closed at 10,213.62Resistance:10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks10,285 is the late December consolidation peak10,365 is the late September 2008 lowThe 50 day EMA at 10,374The 200 day SMA at 10,45310,496 is the November 2009 high10,594 is the June 2010 peak10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low10,730 is the January 2010 peak10,920 is the recent May high10,963 is the July 2008 low11,100 from the 7-08 low11,205 is the April closing high11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:10,209 is recent August 2010 low10,120 is the October 2009 peak9829 is the September 2008 closing high9918 is the September 2008 peak9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low9774 is the May 2010 intraday low9325 is a late 2008 interim peak9034 from early 2009 peaks

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.