Posted by cydrych on 9/20/2012 12:02:00 PM (view original):I think Crave might be right. Somehow I overlooked the Gators' and their schedule (maybe it was their bad season last year that made me forget them). I think Virginia Tech is down this year and Miami has been for awhile, but Florida has 2 cupcakes before the Florida State game. If the Seminoles deal with Clemson, they'll still have to handle the Gators. And losing a game that late in the season is death to a NC game bid.

Moosep: Oklahoma? There are a lot of good teams that Oklahoma has to deal with before they can consider themselves out of the woods. Kansas St this weekend, Texas in a few weeks, Notre Dame, TCU, West Virginia!!! Even OK State might have a say. I think we are long way to saying Oklahoma will be anywhere near the NC game.

We will see how many OU goes thru at the end of the season.

Florida State took care of their business. Oklahoma did not. I'm inclined to pencil in Alabama and Florida State for late January.

Fair or not, I think it's unlikely FSU will get to play in the NC game, even if they run the table. While it wouldn't be their fault, I think they need some help to get into it.

I see all 3 of the following scenarios as more likely than FSU getting in the NC game:
a) 3 undefeated teams & one is from the SEC--FSU gets left out.
b) 2 undefeated teams (one is FSU, the other is NOT from the SEC) - FSU watches while the other undefeated team plays a 1-loss SEC champ.
c) If the SEC championship is between 2 undefeated teams, they play each other (again) for the NC (even if FSU goes undefeated)

It's pretty much a given that the SEC Champ will play in the NC game, barring some sort of freak scenario where "everybody beats each other."

If FSU goes undefeated, they'll likely have four "quality" wins (quality in this sense means teams we can reasonably expect to be pretty good all year): Clemson, VT, Florida, ACC Championship. Yes, Miami is a great rivalry game they would have to win, but Miami isn't all that good.

If a PAc-10 team runs the table, I think they'd get the nod over FSU. I'm not saying that fair, but given media bias toward the Pac12 & the general suckitude of the ACC of late, I think it would happen. Oregon is the most plausible team to do that, but Stanford hasn't lost yet, either (I don't think Stanford is a top team, but let's consider both ORE/STA for the sake of argument). If Oregon runs the table, they'd have "quality" wins over: Arizona (maybe), USC, Stanford, Oregon State (well... I doubt it, but they're 2-0 right now, bith wins against ranked teams), PAC12 Championship. If Stanford runs the table, they'd have quality wins over: USC, Arizona (maybe), Notre Dame, Oregon State (see above), Oregon, PAC12 Championship.

Now look at the Big 12. Can someone run the table? Probably not, but the most likely candidates are WV, TCU, Texas, or K-State. They all play each other, so one of them running the table would mean QW over the three others. Furthermore, they all play Oklahoma, so that would be another QW.

Again, fair or not, if you're not in the SEC, you basically need to show that you're the best undefeated team in the country to get into the NC game-against the SEC champ, of course. I see combinations of media bias and strength of schedule etc putting any undefeated Pac12 or Big12 champ ahead of an undefeated FSU, and think an undefeated ND would also leapfrog them. Furthermore, I also think FSU being the only undefeated team outside the SEC is not necessarily enough to get them in; for example, Bama does not play Georgia/SC this year, so an undefeated vs undefeated is not out of the question in the SEC title game. LSU/Georgia also do not play, so there's another possible undefeated matchup. Would the loser still come out ahead of FSU in the BCS rankings? Possibly...

Addendum: The only way I see FSU getting in, fair or not, requires both of the following:

a) After the dust settles, they're the only undefeated team outside the SEC, and
b) The loser of the SEC title game has (at least) one loss entering the game, making that loss (at least) their 2nd loss.

I agree that if a Pac-10 team runs the table, they could edge an undefeated Florida State (but probably not an undefeated SEC-team)... but I don't think there will be an undefeated Pac-10 team. I think the Pac-10 is up this year and that could mean an unexpected upset somewhere along the way. Even if you set aside the expected upset (USC over Oregon), the league is playing so well that if any top ranked team has a bad day, they could end up losing.

I don't believe in any Big-12 teams this year (and they don't have a conference championship anymore to help boost their attractiveness), the Big-10 has already played themselves out of contention, and Notre Dame has too tough a schedule to go all the way unscathed.

And since I don't believe there is a chance in hell the voters will ever let #2 happen again... I am left with just one. If Florida State loses a game anywhere down the line, I think that opens it up for all 1 loss teams, including USC.

Right now it is looking like the winner of the SEC (1 lost or not) and the winner of the PAC 10 (1 lost or not). KSU and WVU will lose along the way and neither team will have a chance to get back in there.

USC, Oregon, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and LSU will all have the chances needed