The approach adopted in this section contrasts with the
farm-based analysis and proposed solution of land-management
problems in the Kumaun Himalaya of Uttar Pradesh. It considers
Nepal as a whole, with emphasis on the Middle Mountains and the
Terai. These are the most densely populated regions where
relatively good accessibility, at least in some areas, provides a
better opportunity for much larger-scale technological
intervention. Hrabovszky and Miyan (1987) undertook their study
of land-use and food-production problems from the standpoint that
there are causal linkages in both directions between population
growth and land use. They discuss the effects of the former on
the latter and, more specifically, on adaptation patterns in
local land use and in ruralto-rural and rural-to-urban migration.
The particular problems of Nepal are analysed using data
originating from three perspective studies carried out by APROSC
(Agricultural Projects Services Centre) on request from the
National Planning Commission of Nepal. These studies analyse most
population and landuse problems within a framework which
disaggregates Nepal into fifteen subregions, that is, the three
main ecological zones of High Himalaya, Middle Mountains, and
Terai, themselves divided into the five Development Regions of
the country. These studies cover the recent past, from 1971/72 to
1984/85 and extend into the future, to 2005.

Some historical settlement patterns

There is growing evidence that pressure of population on the
land has become the most intractable problem facing three types
of situation in Developing Countries where demand for food
exceeds the local ability to produce food from the available land
and with the available technology. The first of these situations
is the low-rainfall savannah lands of the world, which have
become known as the 'dramatic drought areas.' The second type of
situation where population pressure often exceeds local food
production capacity is represented by the rice-bowls of Asia.
Here the evolution of intensive rice cultivation under some form
of water control has permitted very high population densities
which now, in many locations, have exceeded the maximum possible
productivity of the land, given the technologies presently being
used. This situation is best exemplified by two countries of the
Indian subcontinent, Bangladesh and India, where there is heavy
reliance on monsoonfed rice culture and which contain about 60
percent of the hungry of the world.

The third situation is the mountain areas. As with the
savannahs, mentioned above, middle-mountain settlement also has
been an early tendency in human history, as it provided a
relatively disease-free environment, a climate permitting an
active life, usually highly fertile soils, and in general a
reliable, often high, rainfall. They were also relatively safe
places against intrusion. In the case of Nepal, history relates
that many of the past population explosions have been the result
of immigration into the mountains from lowland areas. This
movement has since been reversed as the population growth of the
Nepalese mountains has not been matched by the subsistence
farmers" ability to produce food, and for about the past
hundred years there has been an accelerating migration from the
hills to the plains. Hrabovszky and Miyan (1987) have referred to
this as the 'Greet Turnabout.' The reason for this has been a
rapid growth in population within the confines of limited
availability of potentially cultivable land. This pattern of
migration is certainly not restricted to Nepal, nor to the
Himalaya; it is displayed in many mountain regions, including the
Andes, and has been a popular political and research topic in
mountainous areas of Europe.

The drastic changes in the population - land equilibruium

As long as the Nepalese population grew at or below I percent
per annum and as long as there were reasonable-quality land
reserves available for conversion from forest or grassland use
into arable land, Nepal could both feed its population and export
small surpluses of agricultural products to the neighbouring
countries.

Under the impact of improved health care, annual mortality
figures were reduced substantially from 38 to 16.6 per thousand
of population between 1951 and 1985. At the same time fertility
has remained high and thus population growth is now running at
about 2.7 percent per annum, and it is expected to accelerate
further to about 3 percent per annum by 2005. Nepal's population
grew from 8.3 million in 1951 to 16.7 million in 1985 and the
projected population for 2005 is about 30 million.

Given the slow economic transformation process in Nepal, the
overwhelming majority of the increases in population have to be
accommodated within the agricultural sector. As has been
emphasized already (Chapter 1) for the country as a whole, in
1985, 83 percent of the households were dependent upon
agriculture.

There are signs that fertility has actually increased as
modern communications and the welfare goals of the government
have led to a lowering of local pressures on people in poorly
endowed areas to control fertility.

Two fundamental land-resource use issues

Nepal is facing two fundamental land-resource issues. One of
them is that the final limit of land suitability for cultivation
is being approached rapidly, and the other is the speed at which
land can be brought into cultivation, or its intensity of use can
be increased, in order to match the growth in demand for the
products of land.

Taking only the criterion of suitability of land for
cultivation, Nepal still has about 730,000 ha, in addition to the
2,410,000 ha presently under cultivation, that could be converted
to arable land. This would mean conversion from forest land,
nearly all of which is in the Terai. There are some important
considerations, however, why not all the above potential should
be brought under cultivation. First, in specific locations,
demand for fuelwood exceeds the supply and some lands which
ultimately would be suitable for cultivation (in the Middle
Mountains, often only after terracing) need to be left under
forest cover. The second consideration relates to the functions
of the forest in support of cultivation through its production of
fodder and also forest litter for the supply of organic matter to
the arable lands. These issues have also been discussed in the
Kumaun Himalayan context. In the Nepalese case Hrabovszky and
Miyan (1987) stipulate that, in areas with limited access to
inorganic fertilizers, each hectare of cultivated land needs to
be supported by 1 4 ha of forest land if soil fertility, and thus
agricultural output, is to be maintained.

In view of the above constraints and of the need to take some
unterraced and terraced lands out of cultivation, and also
allowing for the increased area of settlements and roads, the
Perspective Land-Use Plan estimated that only about 160,000 ha
could be added to the total cultivated land, equal to only 7
percent of the presently cultivated area. This clearly points to
land-use intensification as the main means for raising
agricultural output. Table 8.3 shows that between 1965 and 1985
the estimated area under cultivation increased by 31 percent and
the annually cropped area by 100 percent. This indicates that the
cropping intensity (C.l. = annually cropped area/cultivated area
x 100) had risen from 108 percent in 1965 to 166 percent by 1985,
a major feat accomplished by the Nepalese farmers. At the same
time, the price for this increase in cropping intensity has been
a stagnant or declining yield.

Table 8.3 Increase in area under cultivation in Nepal
between 196566 and 1985-86 in thousands of hectares (after
Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987).

Years

Cultivated land

Cropped area

Cropping intensity

1965 66

1,840

1,995

108

1970-71

2,030

2,231

110

1975-76

2,161

2,410

112

1980-81*

2,272

2,459

108

1985-86

2,410

4,002

166

*drought year

While the Land Resources Mapping Project,' together with the
new cadastral survey, have provided a major improvement in
land-use information in Nepal, time-series information is still
weak. Orderly release of Class I and Class 11 lands from forest
to cropping use is still hampered by some of the existing landuse
policies.

Adaptive patterns in response to growing population
pressures

Experience in extending the cultivated land and increasing
cropping intensities, and of the limits on extension of
cultivated land, have been discussed above; here the constraints
and opportunities for intensification and migration are analysed.

The traditional method for maintaining the fertility of the
land is running into resource constraints, not only because of
the declining forest/cultivated land ratio, but also because the
supply of farmyard manure is rather inelastic. There are some
opportunities to increase the share of manure which is available
for cropland, for instance, by zero grazing, stall-feeding
systems, but there is a consensus that Nepal should avoid
increasing the number of animals because of the shortage of
fodder and the resultant damage done to forests and grasslands.

Thus the ultimate resource for increasing production is
technological change, which includes some imports of manufactured
products, though this is not without its own problems. Other
technological advances include improved, more disease- and
pest-resistant plant varieties, more use of labour, and, above
all, more irrigation where possible. As yet the impact of such
interventions has been small, as it is estimated that use of
inorganic fertilizer represents only 4 percent of total plant
nutrient replacements and that improved crop varieties cover at
present only 10 percent of the cropped area.

When land resources are constrained and technological change
does not provide sufficient relief from the pressure of
population on food resources, most societies adapt the pattern of
distribution of the limited resources, and/or establish rules
about sharing labour and thus the total product of society. Nepal
shows some of these signs, but also a growing landlessness among
the agricultural population.

Given the limits on all the above means of adaptation, when
possible, the reaction of farming populations to a declining per
capita land base is to migrate. In Nepal, just as in many other
highland regions, this means 'going down the mountain into the
surrounding plains areas, both in the form of rural-to-rural and
rural-to-urban migration. In Nepal there has been major migration
to the main inter-mountain valleys, and especially to the Terai
plains. While in the Eastern Terai there is little remaining
opportunity to settle new land, in the Western Terai regions
malaria control has permitted a movement into hitherto
predominantly forested areas. In the Terai, the development of
irrigation will also permit much higher population densities in
the future, and the current man/land ratio is already higher than
that of much of the Middle Mountains.

Rural-to-urban migration is important but, because of the
small nonagricultural sector in Nepal's economy, it offers as yet
little relief. Given the present proportion of 83 percent of
total population dependent upon agriculture, even a large
differential in growth rates between the agricultural and
non-agricultural sectors, of, for instance, 5 percent for
non-agricultural and 2.2 percent for agricultural, for a total
population growth of 2.7 percent, this would raise the share of
non-agricultural employment in twenty years from 17 to 25.8
percent of the total. This implies that of the total additional
population of 12.3 million, 7.7 million would need to be
supported by agriculture and there would be an addition of 5.3
million persons to the existing 7.6 million labour force in
agriculture.

Both rural-to-rural and rural-to-urban migration in Nepal
shows many different forms including seasonal, temporary, single
person versus family, and organized versus spontaneous movements.
In addition, Nepal has to carry the burden of Indian immigration
both into the Terai and into urban areas. The latter is a new
development; in comparison, in the longer-term past, there has
been more temporary migration by Nepalese into India in search of
employment than vice versa, notwithstanding the very large
movements and permanent settlement in Sikkim, the Darjeeling
Himalaya, and parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh over the past
hundred years. An interesting parallel can also be drawn between
the Swiss and Tyrolean highlanders and the Gurkhas finding
outside employment as soldiers.

Looking into the future

As the limits on extensive land use have been reached, or even
exceeded, in many parts of Nepal, looking into the future can
provide a view of the even sharper problems and conflicts which
may arise as the pressure of population on the land continues to
mount. Let us first consider the development objectives of His
Majesty's Government of Nepal:

1. increased food production to provide a satisfactory
diet for Nepal's population;

2. income (both cash and auto-consumption) to rise per
capita so as to reduce the proportion of the population below
the poverty line;

3. improved regional balance in development and incomes;

4. conservation of natural resources, above all, land and
forests;

5. contribution to the overall development of the economy,
through income generation, export earnings, and release of
labour to other sectors.

In light of these objectives and, given projected population
growth and projected developments in other parts of the economy,
the three APROSC perspective studies have identified a number of
main lines of policies and programmes which could bring Nepal
closer to those goals. The discussion below, however, presents
only those which are relevant to land use.

The need for inrensification of land use

Of overwhelming importance is the need to intensify land use,
not only in crop agriculture, but also in the other main land-use
forms, namely grasslands and forest use. Within crop agriculture
a two-pronged approach may be necessary, differentiating between
areas of high and low productive potential and with good or poor
access. In areas of poor access primary reliance will have to be
placed on local inputs, but even here the efforts for
intensification should be on responsive, non-degrading types of
land. While the main goal will be food for local use, some
limited cash crops of high value for weight, such as spices and
tea, would need to be part of the production pattern.

In areas of good access, especially those with good irrigation
facilities, highintensity land use must be pursued, often using
cash-input crops, to provide high cropping intensities and high
yields. This will involve major technological change in terms of
production methods and in terms of supporting services for both
inputs and extension advice, as well as credit and marketing. It
is these areas that will have to produce a marketable surplus to
feed the urban populations, to meet the raw material demands of
the agricultural-processing industries, and to provide exports.
The bulk of this activity is likely to be in the Terai, as is the
case today. With rising urbanization and incomes, however, the
role of the Middle Mountains as potential producers of fruit and
vegetables could become more fully realized. Such an effort could
help to release pressure on marginal areas which then can be used
for less degrading types of land uses, such as, permanent
tree-crops, cut-and-carry grass production, or intensive
forestry.

Grasslands are used at present mainly under uncontrolled
grazing systems. While there is a great scarcity of information
on the use of these lands, and it is necessary to differentiate
grazing adjacent to the local village, more distant forest
grazing, as well as 'alpine' grazing (that is, grazing above the
upper timberline), grassland overgrazing is widespread even
though the actual control of the land may be rigid. The end
result, common throughout the Himalaya and also illustrated in
the preceding section on the Kumaun region, is low productivity
by animals whose productivity is also kept low by disease and
poor feeding. To improve grassland use there will need to be both
more cut-andcarry stall-feeding systems, and a much improved
stock. This will require improvement in the feed base through
better utilization of agricultural byproducts, such as straw
treatment for increased digestibility and the use of short-term
leguminous fodder crops to help with soil fertility maintenance
as well. Given the heavy demands for food, however, the scope for
a large-scale increase in the latter may be limited. Indirect
means for the better utilization of the limited feed resources
will also have to come from more productive animals, a larger
share of productive animals in the herds, and increased feed use
efficiency from reduced morbidity and mortality through improved
health support. At the same time, these measures will have to be
counterbalanced by policies aimed at reducing the growth in
animal numbers to the absolute minimum. This takes us back to the
problem of balance between forest area available to provide
livestock fodder and bedding. The growing role of the buffaloes
in the Terai offers some opportunities here, but a meaningful and
acceptable control system for cattle populations in the Middle
Mountains has yet to be developed.

Major policy and programme proposals have been formulated in
recent years for the forestry sector. The central theme is to
preserve forests which have protection functions, utilize
optimally commercial forest areas and help community forestry to
gain maximum sustainable output from forest area reflecting the
diversity of rural people's needs. Both in commercial and in
community forestry this means turning increasingly to plantation
forestry and forestry management practices which reflect better
the output mix demanded, namely a much larger share for fuel,
fodder, and litter as compared to timber output. Technologies to
reach these goals are known but need improvement, and successful
pilot programmes point to the new institutional forms which are
needed (but see the discussion based upon Mahat et al., 1986a and
b, 1987a and b, pp. 75-8).

In summary, intensification has to be achieved in all three
major land-use types - cropped land, grazing land, and forests.
Land must be allocated to uses which are not degrading and which,
at the same time, represent the best and most productive use of
that land. Within each of the main categories there must be a
drive to use the most productive and least degradation-prone
lands most intensively, so as to reduce the pressure on marginal
lands, which then can be put to appropriate non-degrading uses.

Linkages between the major land-using sectors

The above arguments point to the necessity to plan and to
implement land-use facilities in a manner which takes cognizance
of the strong inter-relationships that exist between the three
main land-use types which make up the overall agricultural
land-use system. Crop agriculture depends largely on animals for
its motive power and for its plant nutrients, thus on grasslands
and on forest. In turn, livestock receives a large part of its
feed base from crops. It also influences forest regeneration,
negatively, through grazing and lopping in forest areas. Forests
are the final 'givers' in this chain of inter-linkages. They
provide new land for cultivation and grazing, fodder, litter, and
their two wood products, fuelwood and timber. It seems that the
combined production functions for these various products are as
yet not well enough known to make optimal production decisions in
the face of the product-mix demanded. Also of great importance is
the nurturing and management of trees on private land. One of the
recent trends in some areas of the Middle Mountains (Gilmour,
personal communication, October 1987) is the significant increase
in trees on private land over the past five to ten years. This is
believed to be an auto-response to the growing pressures on
communal forests (see also Gilmour, 1988).

The other over-arching consideration for improved land-use
systems is the need to utilize technologies in each of the
land-use types which can provide substantial protection against
land degradation. The quantitative data provided by the Land
Resources Mapping Project survey has shown that while there is
widespread damage, its order of magnitude is much less than what
is popularly stated. This, in turn, concurs with our earlier
discussion of the exaggerated claims concerning landsliding, soil
erosion, and downstream impacts (Chapters 4-6). There are
technologies (not necessarily modern or western) for land use in
each of the main types of uses that can provide substantial
protection against land degradation. Their application, however,
under conditions of growing population pressure requires
concerted effort by all, including government and farmers,
herders and foresters. It also requires that the interests of
future generations be harmonized with the interests of the
present one.

Timing of land-use changes

Many of the major land-use changes which will be necessary are
closely tied to decisions on their timing. Little doubt exists,
for example, that all good, Class I and Class II lands in the
country should be under cultivation, but it is still hotly
debated how fast that transfer should occur, who should settle
the land, and under what conditions. In the view of some, it
should happen as fast as meaningful settlement programmes can
manage to implement it; others maintain that all other
agricultural production options need to be exhausted before the
best commercial forests in the Terai are given up for
cultivation. It is also questionable whether there is enough
police power in the country to prevent unorganized settlement of
good land. The past indicates that there is only limited control
possible on the side of government, and the so-called 'illegal
encroachment' of forest lands will continue and result in an
unplanned and often sub-optimal release of land from forestry.

The importance of irrigation

Irrigation is a key element in raising agricultural output
and, given the natural resource endowments, the bulk of its
development will be in the Terai. This creates further
distortions in regional income distribution, unless
counterbalanced by migration. Groundwater development is likely
to be crucial, but it is predicated on the wide availability of
electricity in rural areas, implying major hydroelectric
development.

Estimates indicate that about 45 percent of the final total
cultivated land in Nepal could be irrigated. The present area
irrigated, at 587,800 ha, represents only one-third of the
potential. Under Nepalese conditions irrigation adds to yields
directly, enables much higher use of other inputs, such as
inorganic fertilizers and high-yielding varieties of crops to be
used for substantial increases in production, and above all it
permits at high yields much higher cropping intensities to be
reached, thus increasing total cropped area.

An overview of some major quantitative changes

There will be some substantial changes in the regional
distribution of population in Nepal, with the Terai gaining in
its share of the total (Table 8.4). When compared with land-use
changes, the resulting figures on land per capita indicate a very
tight situation with cultivated area per capita projected to
decline from 0.17 ha in 1985 to 0.09 ha by 2005. Even though
cropping intensities would rise, the annually cropped area per
person would decline from 0.28 to 0.16 during the period. The
components underlying output growth show that yield increases
would contribute over 90 percent of the increases in output.
Table 8.6 provides the orders of magnitudes for predicted
increases in cropping intensities and in yields (for cereals).
The balances between production and requirements of food by
ecological regions are shown in Table 8.7. They provide a warning
that some of the Middle Mountain and High Himalayan subregions
will have to import large volumes of their food, and while Terai
surpluses could cover these, the actual transfers may be
extremely difficult. For livestock the crucial issue is whether
enough feed will be available for an animal population that will
grow very little in numbers beyond the 1985 total, but would have
higher productivity and therefore higher feed requirements. Table
8.8 shows that a close balance could be achieved at the national
level, but there will be major shortages in the mountain regions.
Production demand and balances for fuelwood and timber are
presented in Table 8.9. These show major surpluses of timber and
frightening shortages of fuelwood as the figures emerge from
calculations using present official shares of timber and fuelwood
under existing forestry practices. They point to the serious need
to re-orient forest production to cover local requirements.

To be able to achieve these attractive results, the share of
current inputs in the total value output of agriculture would
have to rise from about 12 to 14 percent in 1985 to 20 percent by
2005, and parallel to it, investments in agriculture would have
to grow from 10.6 percent of agricultural output to 16.8 percent.
The value of agricultural output would represent only about 35
percent of total output in the economy, as compared to 52 percent
in 1985.

Table 8.5 Projected changes in per capita availability of
cultivated and cropped area by ecological zones in Nepal,
1985-2005 (after Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987).

1985

2005

Particulars

Mountain

Hills

Terai

Nepal

Mountain

Hills

Terai

Nepal

Population (millions)

1.4

7.8

7.5

16.7

2.4

13.5

14.1

30.00

Cultivated area (millions /
ha)

0.21

0.90

1.3

2.44

0.19

0.82

1.61

2.62

Cropped area (millions/ ha)

0.28

1.53

2.12

3.93

0.27

1.44

3.06

4.77

Cultivated area (ha/ cap)

0.15

0.12

0.17

0.14

0.08

0.06

0.11

0.09

Cropped area (ha/ cap)

0.25

0.20

0.28

0.24

0.11

0.11

0.22

0.16

Table 8.6 Predicted increases in land-use intensity and
yields per hectare of cropped area for Nepal, 1985-2005 (after
Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987).

1985

2005

Cropping Intensity (%)

Yield (mt/ha of cropped
area)

Cropping Intensity (%)

Yield (mt/ha of cropped
area)

Mountain

135

1.07

140

1.62

Hills

170

1.30

175

2.33

Terai

163

2.00

190

3.02

Nepal

163

1.62

182

2.86

Notes: Yields represent weighted average of main
cereals (paddy, maize, wheat, millet, barley) and potato in
metric tonnes (mt). Yield of potato has been adjusted into cereal
terms by using conversion factor: 3.5 kg of potato = I kg of
cereal. Cropping Intensity = area cropped * number of crops per
year.

But Nepal also needs major changes in its institutions
supporting agriculture. These institutions are young and are
often undergoing major metamorphoses in the experimentation for
finding the most suitable solutions for Nepal's needs.
Agricultural research, education, and training have all made huge
forward strides in the past decades, but much further growth and
improvement is needed. But if these improvements are to be
meaningful they must be balanced with a much better understanding
of the local environments and land-use systems.

Note: Potato has been converted into cereal terms by
using conversion factor: 3.5 kg Of potato = I kg of cereal.

Perhaps the single most important insight observed from the
three APROSC studies (Hrabovszky and Miyan, 1987) is that the
dominant factor in land-use issues in Nepal (and elsewhere in the
Himalaya) is the extreme variability, both of natural conditions
and of human adaptations to them. This calls for wellidentified
and locally tested prescriptions for highly specific local
problems. By now it should go without reiteration that this
presupposes the identification of local felt needs and direct
input of local people into all levels of policy implementations
as a condition for success.