or 2) an optimistic balls-to-the-wall scenario where demand for calls surges as what's better than being long stocks... being long stocks levered!

In fact, this regime shift is now extremely notable, the usual negative correlation regime of VIX and Stocks has been abolished in the last two months. The correlation between S&P and VIX is now +0.25 - the highest since 1998...

We have only seen this regime shift a few times in the last decade or two and typically it has signalled an exuberant top (suggesting the driver is more scenario 2 above).

1998 - Stocks dropped 22% a month after correlation peaked

2000 - Stocks tanked 39% in the next 18 months

2007 - Stocks collapsed 57% in the next 18 months

2011 - Stocks tumbled 22% a month after correlation peaked

But it's not perfect, in April 2017 there was no drop at all.

We wonder which regime shift will occur this time?

A glimpse at today's market suggests the levered long S&P Calls are being unwound (VIX down as stocks sink)...

Comments

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Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!
HST

I,m ready,locked and loaded. if i'm wrong,you can find me at the "Lucky Dice" trailer park in Barstow,Ca. However,contemplating the odds,i think i will soon start to select furnishings for my estate on the Costa Brava. i have one in sight,just not sure about the Russian neighbors,that fucking Yacht is a eyesore,just tacky! anyway,i may finally have time to search for the Metall bars i lost in a boating accident a while back. remember Kids,don't drink while boating!