September 18, 2018

Pollsters look at NM congressional races as election approaches

From Albuquerque to New York City, pollsters are watching New Mexico. And, as part of the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives, both national parties are pouring money into television ads for their candidates.

An Albuquerque Journal poll shows Democrat Deb Haaland leads in the race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham in the 1st Congressional District, while Republican Yvette Herrell is leading the race in southern New Mexico to replace Steve Pearce in the 2nd Congressional District.

The 2nd Congressional District is a Republican stronghold that Democrats are targeting this year in an attempt to retake the U.S. House of Representatives.

The Journal poll showed Herrell, a state representative, leading 48 percent to 41 percent over Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, a water lawyer.

Republicans have held the district every year but two since New Mexico gained a 3rd congressional district in the 1980s. That win by Democrats was in 2008, a wave election in favor of Democrats nationwide.

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are spending money in New Mexico on television ads targeting voters.

Meanwhile, a New YorkTimes poll showed Torres Small with a 46 percent to 45 percent lead over Herrell.

Other numbers in the poll, like Trumps even approval ratings in the district and support for a generic Republican candidate, showed the district’s conservative leaning.

The poll was conducted by Siena College and is part of a series of polls conducted in battleground U.S. districts.

Previous polls showed Herrell with a lead in the district as well, though they were conducted just after the primary in June.

1st Congressional District

Democrats hold an eight percent lead in the 1st congressional district according to the Albuquerque Journal poll. Former Democratic Party of New Mexico chair Deb Haaland has the support of 49 percent of likely voters, while Republican former State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones has the support of 41 percent and Libertarian the support of 3 percent.

The district was held by Republicans for decades until 2008, when Martin Heinrich won. Since then, Democrats have held the seat.

The Albuquerque Journal polls were conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. between Sept. 7 and 13. The 1st Congressional District poll was of 405 registered voters who voted in 2014 and 2016 and are very likely to vote in the upcoming elections and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The 2nd Congressional District poll was of registered voters who voted in 2014 and 2016 and are very likely to vote in the upcoming elections and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

The New York Times poll of 503 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 13 and Sept. 18 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

The margin of error means each candidate’s totals can be different from the results by that number in either direction.

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All week, we look for stories that help New Mexicans better understand what’s happening with water, climate, energy, landscapes and communities around the region. Thursday morning, that news goes out via email.

A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor.

Elected in November to represent New Mexico’s First Congressional District, Rep. Deb Haaland is among the first of two Native women to join the U.S. Congress. Focusing on her background, national magazines and television programs profiled her even before she swooped to victory on Election Day, outpacing her nearest opponent by more than 20 points.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains. The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided.

Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.
Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance.

Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.
Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance.

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Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.