Arid Western Asia (Middle East and Arid Asia)

This region includes the predominantly arid and semi-arid areas of the Middle
East and central Asia. The region extends from Turkey in the west to Kazakstan
in the east, and from Yemen in the south to Kazakstan in the north. The eastern
part of the region has a large area dominated by mountains.

Ecosystems: Vegetation models project little change in most arid or
desert vegetation types under climate change projections-i.e., most lands that
are deserts are expected to remain deserts. Greater changes in the composition
and distribution of vegetation types of semi-arid areas-for example, grasslands,
rangelands, and woodlands-are anticipated. Small increases in precipitation
are projected, but these increases are likely to be countered by increased temperature
and evaporation. Improved water-use efficiency by some plants under elevated
CO2 conditions may lead to some improvement in plant productivity and changes
in ecosystem composition. Grasslands, livestock, and water resources are likely
to be the most vulnerable to climate change in this region because they are
located mostly in marginal areas. Appropriate land-use management, including
urban planning, could reduce some of the pressures on land degradation. Management
options, such as better stock management and more integrated agro-ecosystems,
could improve land conditions and counteract pressures arising from climate
change. The region is an important refuge for wild relatives of many important
crop species; with appropriate conservation measures it may continue to provide
a source of genetic material for future climatic conditions.

Hydrology and Water Resources: Water shortage, already a problem in
many countries of this arid region, is unlikely to be reduced, and may be exacerbated,
by climate change. Changes in cropping practices and improved irrigation practices
could significantly improve the efficiency of water use in some countries. Glacial
melt is projected to increase under climate change-leading to increased flows
in some river systems for a few decades, followed by a reduction in flow as
the glaciers disappear.

Food and Fiber Production: Land degradation problems and limited water
supplies restrict present agricultural productivity and threaten the food security
of some countries. There are few projections of the impacts of climate change
on food and fiber production for the region. The adverse impacts that may result
in the region are suggested by the results of studies that estimate that wheat
production in Kazakstan and Pakistan would decline under selected scenarios
of climate change. The studies, however, are too few to draw strong conclusions
regarding agriculture across the entire region. Many of the options available
to combat existing problems would contribute to reducing the anticipated impacts
of climate change. Food and fiber production, concentrated on more intensively
managed land, could lead to greater reliability in food production and reduce
the detrimental impacts of extreme climatic events. Countries of the former
Soviet Union are undergoing major economic changes, particularly in agricultural
systems and management. This transition is likely to provide opportunities to
change crop types and introduce more efficient irrigation-providing significant
win-win options for conservation of resources to offset the projected impacts
of climate change.

Human Health: Heat stress, affecting human comfort levels, and possible
spread in vector-borne diseases are likely to result from changes in climate.
Decreases in water availability and food production would lead to indirect impacts
on human health.

Conclusions: Water is an important limiting factor for ecosystems, food
and fiber production, human settlements, and human health in this arid region
of the world. Climate change is anticipated to alter the hydrological cycle,
and is unlikely to relieve the limitations placed by water scarcity upon the
region. Climate change and human activities may further influence the levels
of the Caspian and Aral Seas, which will affect associated ecosystems, agriculture,
and human health in the surrounding areas. Win-win opportunities exist which
offer the potential to reduce current pressures on resources and human welfare
in the region and also offer the potential to reduce their vulnerability to
adverse impacts from climate change.

Australasia

Australasia includes Australia, New Zealand, and their outlying islands. The
region spans the tropics to mid-latitudes and has varied climates and ecosystems,
ranging from interior deserts to mountain rainforests. The climate is strongly
affected by the oceanic environment and the ENSO phenomenon.

Ecosystems: Some of the region's ecosystems appear to be very vulnerable
to climate change, at least in the long term, because alterations to soils,
plants, and ecosystems are very likely, and there may be increases in fire occurrence
and insect outbreaks. Many species will be able to adapt, but in some instances,
a reduction of species diversity is highly likely. Any changes will occur in
a landscape already fragmented by agricultural and urban development; such changes
will add to existing problems such as land degradation, weeds, and pest infestations.
Impacts on aquatic ecosystems from changes in river flow, flood frequency, and
nutrient and sediment inputs are likely to be greatest in the drier parts of
the region. Coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise
and possible changes in local meteorology. Tropical coral reefs, including the
Great Barrier Reef, may be able to keep pace with sea-level rise-but will be
vulnerable to bleaching and death of corals induced by episodes of higher sea
temperatures and other stresses. Measures to facilitate adaptation include better
rangeland management; plantings along waterways; and research, monitoring, and
prediction. Active manipulation of species generally will not be feasible in
the region's extensive natural and lightly managed ecosystems.

Hydrology and Water Resources: Vulnerability appears to be potentially
high. Any reduction of water availability, especially in Australia's extensive
drought-prone areas, would sharpen competition among uses, including agriculture
and wetland ecosystem needs. Freshwater supplies on low-lying islands are also
vulnerable. More frequent high-rainfall events may enhance groundwater recharge
and dam-filling events, but they also may increase the impacts of flooding,
landslides, and erosion, with flood-prone urban areas being heavily exposed
to financial loss. Reduced snowpack and a shorter snow season appear likely,
and New Zealand's glaciers are likely to shrink further. Some adaptation options
are available, but the cost involved would be high.

Food and Fiber Production: Vulnerability appears to be low, at least
in the next few decades (potentially high sensitivity coupled with high adaptability).
Agriculture in the region is adaptable, and production increases are likely
in some cases. However, there may be a trend toward increased vulnerability
in the longer term-especially in warmer and more water-limited parts of Australia,
where initial gains for some crops are eroded later as the delayed full effects
of climate change (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) tend to outweigh
the more immediate benefits of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Impacts
will vary widely from district to district and crop to crop. There will be changes
in growth and quality of crops and pastures; shifts in the suitability of districts
for particular crops; and possibly increased problems with weeds, pests, and
diseases. Rangeland pastoralism and irrigated agriculture will be especially
affected where rainfall changes occur. Changes in food production elsewhere
in the world, which affect prices, would have major economic impacts on the
region. With regard to forestry, the longer time to maturity results in a relatively
large exposure to financial loss from extreme events, fire, or any locally rapid
change in climate conditions.

Coastal Systems: Parts of the region's coasts and rapidly growing coastal
settlements and infrastructure are very vulnerable to any increase in coastal
flooding and erosion arising from sea-level rise and meteorological changes.
Indigenous coastal and island communities in the Torres Strait and in New Zealand's
Pacific island territories are especially vulnerable. Many adaptation options
exist, although these measures are not easily implemented on low-lying islands.
Moreover, climate change and sea-level rise generally are not well accommodated
in current coastal management planning frameworks.

Human Settlements: In addition to hydrological and coastal risks, moderate
vulnerability is present from a variety of impacts on air quality, drainage,
waste disposal, mining, transport, insurance, and tourism. Overall, these effects
are likely to be small relative to other economic influences, but they still
may represent significant costs for large industries.

Human Health: Some degree of vulnerability is apparent. Indigenous communities
and the economically disadvantaged may be more at risk. Increases are expected
in heat-stress mortality, vector-borne diseases such as dengue, water and sewage-related
diseases, and urban pollution-related respiratory problems. Though small compared
with the total burden of ill health, these impacts have the potential to cause
considerable community impact and cost.

Conclusions: Australia's relatively low latitude makes it particularly
vulnerable to impacts on its scarce water resources and on crops growing near
or above their optimum temperatures, whereas New Zealand's cooler, wetter, mid-latitude
location may lead to some benefit through the ready availability of suitable
crops and likely increases in agricultural production. In both countries, however,
there is a wide range of situations where vulnerability is thought to be moderate
to high-particularly in ecosystems, hydrology, coastal zones, human settlements,
and human health.