Inner track opens with bang

The opening of the Aqueduct inner track is a highlight for some dedicated New York racing fans. Yes, there are those who view winter racing in New York as the worst we have to offer. Others like the challenge of solving the handicapping puzzle presented by lesser quality horses meeting the harshest weather of the year.

This winter season could prove to be the most demanding in decades. Anyone who follows New York racing knows the caliber of the product, on average, has declined sharply. The upper classes of racing have remained the best in the nation. However, lower claiming classes, now augmented with a myriad of special conditions to assemble larger fields, more resemble Finger Lakes than the NYRA (New York Racing Association) product we used to know.

Plug into that equation the variable of the move from Belmont Park or the main track at Aqueduct to the winterized inner surface. The result is some amazing form reversals. We’ve seen a few already.

After a relatively quiet opening day on Wednesday, all heck broke loose Thursday.

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HUNDRED ACRE WOOD came into the Dec. 12 opener without an in-the-money finish in seven months. Although the filly broke her maiden at Belmont Park, she had run well in three of her four inner track starts last winter.

She was allowed to gallop on the lead, setting a slow pace. The result was a $40 surprise, with the favorites struggling to catch up.

Favorites reasserted themselves in the next three events. INMYFATHERSIMAGE broke that up with an upset in race five. The son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin was the second-longest price in his race.

The real fireworks struck in race six. Ironically, this was an event about which I had posted a Twitter comment Wednesday. It said, “...(morning line) favorite LIVININTHEFASTLANE is pegged at 4-5. If you think that is a good wager you need a trip to the fruitcake factory.”

That turned out to be a correct surmise. She went to post at 75 cents on the dollar and finished fifth. However, the more logical alternatives failed as well.

Winner FRONT COVER DREAM brought the house down at 99-1. That worked out to a $200.00 win mutuel for the two-year-old filly.

Trained by Randi Persaud, the daughter of little-know sire Tippity Tap had made three previous starts. She had faced thirty rivals in those events and beaten just three of them. Her total beaten margin added up to - wait for it — 78 lengths!

Front Cover Dreams was getting a jockey change (to a rider winless in 2013) and she had never raced or trained on the inner track. Logically, her victory can’t be explained by anything other than the surface switch and the poor quality of her competition.

Friday’s results aren’t complete as this is being written. From the 18 races run Wednesday and Thursday, seven produced double-digit winning payoffs.

Expect more of this, at least through the first few weeks of inner track racing. Once these horses get a race or two over the surface, sanity should return.

The inner track season of 2012-2013 showed a trend back toward early speed. That is to say, about 60 percent of sprints were won by horses positioned first or second after one-quarter mile of their race. Routes showed a 50 percent success rate for the same positions.

There was almost no difference between the results whether the track was dry and fast or wet and sloppy.

This was in contrast to the previous few winters. The inner track had settled into a profile of being almost exactly the same as NYRA’s other three dirt surfaces. It was slightly speed-favoring but biased only on certain days. After all, the inner track has the longest home stretch of any NYRA dirt track. There is no reason it should not be fair to all running styles.

Early results from this week have been more about the surface switch than an emerging profile. There has been an almost even distribution of early speed and stalker/closers. Several winners have been positioned inside; several others have raced in the three — or four-path. Keep in mind that long term data shows horses that are wide every step of the way seldom prosper on the inner track.

One of the more perplexing aspects of inner track racing at Aqueduct is the distribution of post position winners. There was a time twenty years ago when you wanted to be closest to the rail if you were the early speed. That’s not so accurate these days.

According to BRIS statistics for last year, middle to outside posts did best at most distances. If I had a choice I would prefer a horse breaking from a middle stall. However, outside posts can win and did so with relative frequency.

Some would suggest the three most important handicapping factors during the winter meet are: 1) Horses with proven form over the inner track, 2) Sharp current form will often trump class, and 3) Trainers.

One of my favorite sayings, which infuriates some folks, is that trainers, not horses, win races. That has been true since the days of Oscar Barrera, Sr., to Pete Ferriola, to Rick Dutrow, to the latest hot man, David Jacobson.

Shrewd operators like Jacobson take underachieving horses and turn them into winners. Those winners become the horses fitting point 2 above, sharp current form.

Finally, if you have narrowed the puzzle down to two or three alternatives, the safest choice is the horse, or horses, that have shown they like the inner track. The winterized surface is unique in American racing.