EKOS poll: Liberal lead halved; Harper sees security bump

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives had shrunk in half during the week following the shooting on Parliament Hill, according to the latest polling by EKOS.

The NDP’s support has also suffered since Michael Zehaf-Bibeau killed Cpl. Nathan Cirillo at the National War Memorial and entered Parliament’s Centre block, putting a spotlight on terrorism in Canada and the security response to the event.

The Conservatives, who had 26.5 per cent support in mid-October, have moved up to 27.8 per cent in a bump that EKOS believes could be slightly higher.

“We’ve seen the horse race go from a commanding 12 point lead for the Liberals to a considerably less comfortable 6.5 point lead,” said EKOS president Frank Graves.

“What looked like a very inhospitable political landscape for Stephen Harper now looks a lot more auspicious,” said Graves. “It’s certainly not positive. But it’s certainly moved from ‘I don’t see how he would be successful in the next election if the current numbers persist’ to ‘Now there’s a plausible route to power.'”

The polls were taken after Liberal leader Justin Trudeau made a joke about Canada’s CF-18s and later apologized, as well as after the House of Commons voted on sending the planes to fight ISIS militants in Iraq.

“There’s no question that the events of the past couple of weeks have had a significant effect on the political landscape,” said Graves.”It’s extremely difficult to say this is due to anything else other than the rise of concerns around security.”

The NDP, for their part, dropped to 21.4 per cent from 25 per cent of support in the last poll. The latest survey was done between October 27 and 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

“Both centre-left parties have come out of this in an inferior position than they were going in,” said Graves.

Before the Ottawa shooting, the Liberals were steadily gaining support in what proved to be more than just a honeymoon period with Trudeau at the helm.

While Graves said the shift in the latest poll might not be be long-lasting and that the earlier trend lines could return, the “security bump” afforded to the Conservatives may be perceived as a window of opportunity by party operatives.

“You’ve got to think that if those numbers were to continue, and we’ll look at them again next week, some people might be going ‘Well, maybe the time is right,’ even if you can’t imagine a pre-Christmas election,” said Graves. “Stranger things have happened.”

The poll asked some specific questions on security and enforcement to study the impacts of the Ottawa shooting on voting intentions.

Canadians polled on whether they believe protecting public security or guaranteeing civil liberties should receive greater emphasis changed their minds in this poll after a decade of slowly preferring the latter.

In this poll, 41 per cent chose protecting public security and 35 per cent sided with guaranteeing civil liberties.

There’s a similar dynamic on the question of law enforcement.

Asked whether police and intelligence agencies should be given more powers to ensure security, 40 per cent disagreed while 32 agreed, while over 60 per cent had said they disagreed as recently as early this year.

Graves also noted a shift in public approval ratings.

Both NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and Trudeau have lost the edge they had in previous polls, while Harper hasn’t moved, said Graves.

“A lot of people who said two weeks ago they disapprove of (Harper) now say ‘I don’t know,'” said Graves. “So he’s seen some positive movement.”

Trudeau has a 36 per cent approval rating, Mulcair stands at 35 per cent and Harper at 28 per cent.

The approval numbers should be taken with a grain of salt because the methodology on this poll and the last vary in their probity, said Graves.

Regionally, Harper now appears to be leading in British Columbia and Manitoba, said Graves.

“But really importantly, he’s pulled into a much more competitive position in vote-rich Ontario, where he was really out of the race,” he said.

Hey, it worked it “Wag the Dog.” If there’s no hope of re-election, start a phoney war, create a hero in the studio, and get elected before the public wises up. Of course then they killed off the PR flacks who created it…

I guess Harper somehow managed to convince 60 countries to “start a phony war” against ISIS/ISIL. I guess those Kurds, Christians and Muslims that don’t adhere to their fanatical version of Islam are just play acting at getting mass executed. All so Harper can get re-elected. You conspiracy nutters crack me up.

That is so absurd. If it rains where you are, does Harper control that too? Your derangement syndrome needs to seen to before you post any more opinions. The PM did not start a war nor did he encourage terrorism against our soldiers to get votes.

I suppose it is possible that Canadians have been persuaded to change their minds by recent events. But news of Harper preferring the closet to his caucus members when the bullets were flying only came out last Sunday (a day before the 3-day period of polling). In addition, news of his apology to his caucus for his vanishing act only came out yesterday, a day after the polling had ended.

Thus I suspect any uptick Harper might get from the initial shock of the attack would be temporary and would be tempered by his apparent “closetphilia”. Be interesting to see what next week’s numbers would be.

Some leadership. Hide in a closet but don’t hesistate to send Canadians to a dangerous foreign country for a war that is unwinnable! He also wanted to send Canadians to their grave in Iraq back in 2003 for another/or the same war that was/is unwinnable.

Why do conservatives lie all the time. Because they have to to look good. He got in there himself. Even the rest of his caucus didn’t know he was there and they would have if there had been security people standing guard in front of it.

When things have settled down a bit and we have some truth telling about the massive security failures, the
deep deep cuts to our security agencies which Harper has made, and the full stories are revealed, one has to believe that the public will be engaged and shocked.
So far it is not surprising at all that there would be a blip of support.
Harper fully intends to campaign on our fears and his dishonest efforts to diminish his opponents.
It will not work Mr. Harper.
And please, stop looking so damned pleased with yourself in these days when we are all still
in sorrow and mourning. Never have you seemed so happy….it’s quite sick and disturbing to say nothing of
transparent as Hell.