IN A FLASH, MAYOR’S RACE TURNS UPSIDE DOWN

Faulconer appears to have GOP field to himself, while Democrats flood into race

San Diego’s scandal-borne mayoral election has seemingly turned upside down in a week’s time.

Just seven days ago, Republican City Councilman Kevin Faulconer faced the prospect of a difficult race against GOP powerhouse Carl DeMaio while Nathan Fletcher had a chance of clearing the Democratic field.

Now, those roles are largely reversed. Faulconer is the anointed Republican standard-bearer with no intraparty competition while Fletcher so far lacks his new party’s imprimatur and sits squarely in the cross hairs of more liberal Democratic opponents as well as the GOP’s political forces.

UC San Diego political scientist Steve Erie said Fletcher will face a sustained barrage of questions about his switch from Republican to independent to Democrat in a little more than a year’s time. Democrats will questions his true commitment to the party’s core issues, and Republicans will portray him as a political chameleon and opportunist, Erie said.

“He is sort of all things to all people right now,” Erie said. “The key thing for Fletcher is getting the unions to support him.”

While Fletcher has lined up some labor endorsements already, the San Diego and Imperial Counties Labor Council on Friday threw its support to City Councilman David Alvarez.

And Fletcher’s recent endorsement from Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, the former labor council leader, has exposed a rift among union leaders. American Federation of Teachers Local 1931 President Jim Mahler issued a scathing open letter to Gonzalez on Friday saying her endorsement undermines the efforts of the labor council.

Mesa College political-science professor Carl Luna says the two front-runners are clearly Faulconer and Fletcher.

“For Faulconer, it’s all about political affiliation,” he said. “For Fletcher, it’s about personality and having the money to sell his message.”

The week started with a flurry as GOP power brokers got what they wanted in a lone Republican candidate when former City Councilman DeMaio and current county Supervisor Ron Roberts acquiesced to their wishes and declined to run.

On the Democratic side, interim Mayor Todd Gloria said he wouldn’t run, good news for Fletcher that soon soured as former City Attorney Mike Aguirre and Alvarez announced they would run.

Analysts see Faulconer’s path to City Hall’s top job as the least encumbered at least at the outset, despite a relative lack of name familiarity or personal pizazz after seven years on the council. Convincing DeMaio — last November’s mayoral runner-up — to stay out of the Nov. 19 special election and focus on next year’s 52nd Congressional District race was key.

Faulconer picked up the endorsement of the GOP group New Majority on Friday, and the county Republican Party is expected to endorse him Monday night.

County Democrats will consider an endorsement when its central committee meets the evening of Sept. 24. Whether it gives one depends on the sentiments of who attends among the committee’s roughly 60 people, according to party Chairwoman Francine Busby.

Fletcher has locked up the backing of some public employee unions, including the Municipal Employees Association and the San Diego city firefighters.

Former Mayor Bob Filner gained universal backing from unions and received their considerable financial support when he ran for mayor and won last year. He resigned Aug. 30 amid numerous allegations of sexual misconduct.

Fletcher’s path to victory requires that he first clear Aguirre and Alvarez, and possibly former Assemblywoman Lori Saldaña, who took out papers to run Friday and said she will announce her intentions on Monday.

If no one wins a majority — which is highly unlikely — a runoff will be held perhaps in February. The betting is still on Faulconer and Fletcher in the second round, but a primary battle could have consequences.

“He who divides his vote loses,” Luna said of the Democratic field.

Democratic consultant Chris Crotty said Fletcher’s largely anti-labor record while in the Assembly makes it difficult to earn the trust of many rank-and-file Democrats. In recent months, Fletcher has come out in support of labor causes and Thursday touted the endorsement of numerous prominent Latino leaders, including Gonzalez.

“It looks like he is playing it right down the middle with some progressive bona fides as well as some more moderate positions on certain issues, which is where I think a lot of registered voters are,” said Crotty, who is not involved in any campaign.

Adding to Fletcher’s calculus is the question of how many Democratic votes prominent preservationist Bruce Coons will draw. Coons leads the list of about 20 other lesser-known candidates who have said they intend to run.

While character will be a key focus in the wake of the Filner scandal, standard electoral politics — name recognition, personality, issue positions, party and turnout — will decide who wins, according to Luna.

“Alvarez and everybody else play more of a spoiler role, unless there’s a hyperpartisan Democratic turnout, which would benefit Alvarez,” he said.

Erie said Alvarez, who grew up in Barrio Logan and will detail his mayoral aspirations Monday, is a harbinger of the city’s politics in the years ahead.

“He’s kind of an up-and-comer but maybe the least known,” Erie said. “But guys and gals like him are the long-term future of San Diego, reflecting the growing influence of the Latino population.”

Fletcher and Faulconer have put together the most-experienced campaign teams.

For Fletcher, Tim Walsh, a longtime top aide to Rep. Juan Vargas, is managing the effort, while Evan McLaughlin, top lieutenant to Gonzalez in the Legislature and in her former role as head of the labor council, is in charge of field operations. Both men have taken leaves of absence from their jobs to join Fletcher’s campaign.

His top strategist is Obama campaign veteran Doug Herman of The Strategy Group, and the team includes a pollster and fundraiser.

Faulconer’s team is equally adept, led by the consulting firm Revolvis and its principals Jason Roe and Duane Dichiara. Stephen Puetz, Faulconer’s chief of staff, has also taken a leave of absence to manage the campaign, which also includes professional fundraising and polling firms.

Aguirre is just getting his campaign running. Longtime aide Jeff Van Deerlin, from Aguirre’s days as city attorney, is slated to serve as manager.

“What I’m going to do is ask people what they can do for their city, not what their city can do for them,” Aguirre said, evoking President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 inaugural address. “I’m going to focus on four things — streets and sidewalks, a stable water supply and getting electricity prices down.”

Former City Councilwoman Donna Frye, a Democrat, said character will be what matters most.

“There is going to be more emphasis on that because of what we’ve just gone through, and that’s a good thing,” said Frye, who has ruled out running for mayor. “I would like to see someone who cares about the entire community, serves the public and makes sure the public has the chance to participate so that people can trust their government.”

Frye, a former ally of Filner, helped set his downfall in motion in July, saying she was aware of multiple instances of sexual misconduct by the mayor with other women. She said she won’t decide who gets her support until the candidate filing period closes on Sept. 20.

County Registrar Michael Vu is predicting a turnout of close to half of the city’s nearly 673,000 registered voters, 52 percent of whom are registered to vote by mail. The last mayoral special election was in 2005, when 44 percent of the electorate voted in the primary. Mail registration then was about 37 percent.

Whoever wins will serve the roughly three years left on Filner’s unexpired term.