Given that one Conservative MP (currently John Bercow) must
serve as speaker, and that Sinn Fein do not take up their seats in the House of
Commons, any party or coalition needs 323 seats to govern.

Nate Silver, the pollster who correctly predicted the last
two US presidential elections has forecast the
following 2015 election result on the basis of the latest opinion polls,
historical elections results and census data:

What is most striking here is how different the make-up
might be if the UK used a system of proportional representation. The latest opinion polls have
Conservatives (34%), Labour (33%), UKIP (14%), Lib Dem (8%), Green (5%).

So whilst UKIP has 14% of popular support, almost twice that
of the Lib Dems, they are predicted to win only one seat against the Lib Dem’s
28. 'Is that really fair?', some might ask.

But, that aside, the most notable changes between 2010 and
now, apart from the rise of Labour and the fall of the Conservatives, are the
dramatic rise of the SNP, the latter mainly at the expense of Labour (see interactive
map of constituencies) and the equally dramatic fall of the Lib Dems.

Clearly, if this result is repeated on Election Day, no one
party will be able to form a majority government. But also, if the SNP does not go into
coalition, then no party will be able to form a majority coalition government either.

A right of centre coalition of Conservative, Lib Dem, DUP
and UKIP would have only 316 seats, 7 short of that needed.

But a left of centre coalition of Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid
Cymru, SDLP and Green would have only 306, a shortfall of 17.

But Plaid Cymru, DUP and UKIP have already signalled they will not be entering coalition and the Lib Dems are suggesting that they will drive a much harder bargain than last time. This makes the possibility of a majority coalition even more remote.

This would mean that it would only be possible for either
the Conservatives or Labour to pass the Queen’s speech on 27 May with the
support of the SNP.

But the SNP has already ruled out a coalition (or any other
arrangement) with the Tories, and Labour has ruled out a coalition or a
‘confidence and supply’ arrangement (ie. support in vote of confidence and for
budget) with the SNP.

So, the only possibility of Labour continuing in government would
be by some kind of vote by vote agreement with the SNP. This would leave Labour
at the mercy of the SNP over specific policies like defence (especially Trident
which the SNP wants to scrap), the economy and the constitution.

The SNP is strongly opposed to austerity and would push Labour to tax, borrow and spend much more than it would otherwise. It would
undoubtedly also push for an early second referendum on Scottish independence.

So it appears that we may have a serious constitutional crisis.

Charles Moore suggested two weeks ago that the Scottish
National Party (SNP) is seeking to engineer a reverse take-over of the Labour Party.
In reality, they are intent on staging the Scots’ first attempt to capture
their bigger neighbour since Bonnie Prince Charlie led his Jacobite army as far
as Derby in 1745.

Mr Cameron could challenge the Commons to vote him down (in
a vote of no confidence) when it next meets on 27 May or go to the Queen and
tender his resignation (which would be curtains for him personally).

This would leave Ed Miliband trying to form a government
which he will only be able to do with the support of the SNP. But a minority
government does not need a formal pact to sustain it in office, just the votes,
and Nicola Sturgeon has all but guaranteed them to Labour.

‘It provides for a
dissolution of Parliament only when there is a specific vote of no confidence
in the government or if two thirds of all MPs vote for an election. This makes
the prospect of another early general election less likely. In any case, the
parties may have little appetite for one given the expense and the prospect of
losing support in a fresh contest.

Without a dissolution
we would have a legislature but no government, a bit like Belgium, where the
prime minister resigned in April 2010 and no new parliamentary majority could
be established for almost two years. The country was run by a former prime
minister brought out of retirement and a caretaker administration.’

As Johnston concludes, ‘One thing is clear: a minority
Labour government, with fewer seats than the Tories, running the country while
in thrall to a nationalist party that has only 2 or 3 per cent of the total UK
vote, would test our constitutional structures to breaking point, and maybe
beyond. More than that, it could test our creaking, centuries-old Union to
destruction.’

One thing is abundantly clear. The UK’s days as a two party
state where one party has an absolute majority are over. In the 1950s 97% of
people voted Tory or Labour. Now barely 67% do.

This is a new era of coalition and shared power. But
coalitions in a multi-party democracy can only rule effectively when they have
an overall majority. And that may not happen without a shift to some form of proportional
representation – like that or Italy, Israel or Greece.

Perhaps that is the direction in which we are inexorably
drifting; either that, or Scottish independence, or both.

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Kiwi, Christian and Medical

This blog deals mainly with matters at the interface of Christianity and Medicine. But I do also diverge into other subjects - especially New Zealand, rugby, economics, developing world, politics and topics of general Christian and/or medical interest. The opinions expressed here are mine and may not necessarily reflect the views of my employer or anyone else associated with me.

About Me

I am CEO of Christian Medical Fellowship, a UK-based organisation with 4,500 UK doctors and 1,000 medical students as members. The opinions expressed here however are mine, and may not necessarily reflect the views of CMF or anyone else associated with me.