Quoting GetReal:Good evening to you Drak... I have been lurking with nothing much to add to any tropical discussion... IMO, with the ITCZ finally lifting north, and westerly shear also slacking off, I do believe that there will be some REAL activity to follow in the next ten days.

Keep up the excellent work!!!

Yes it is possible although nothing is imminent as we head deeper into August we really gotta watch think as conditions overall become more favorable. Thanks for stopping by!

Good evening to you Drak... I have been lurking with nothing much to add to any tropical discussion... IMO, with the ITCZ finally lifting north, and westerly shear also slacking off, I do believe that there will be some REAL activity to follow in the next ten days.

Correct. When we look at the Quicksat we see winds coming west and winds coming from east that meet up creating a convergence axis. This axis is where the lift occurs. The disturbance is very entangle within the ITCZ.

What causes perturbation's that are dependent on the ITCZ to spin off?

Thanks, and the lift from the convergence at 1000MB causes lift thus creating convection.

Looking at satellite imagery it looks like the disturbance entangled in the ITCZ. Do you agree?

Correct. When we look at the Quicksat we see winds coming west and winds coming from east that meet up creating a convergence axis. This axis is where the lift occurs. The disturbance is very entangle within the ITCZ.