(092112)

Climate Change

Climate Change Topics

Many
scientists say time is growing short. You
do not escape this reality by ignorance.
Everyone must pause to seriously consider
the nature and magnitude of recent or imminent
climate changes. This change is something
to which you are a part! Your daily activity
defines a personal connection to this problem!

I
am emotionally moved as I watch conservative
members of science speak passionately about
change. The facts make their voices quiver.
Humans now live in a most unusual time. For
the present, I ask you to examine the vista
of change in our physical world. Let us briefly
examine present day change in relation to
the Earth’s climate. Later on, many
of these topics reappear and contribute to
another aspect of the window’s concluding
panoramic historical view.

• Greenhouse
Effect

When sunlight enters
the atmosphere, solar energy hitting Earth is either absorbed or reflected.
Some atmospheric gases—called greenhouse gases—absorb reflected
energy (trapped as heat) that would otherwise escape to outer space. The
process works like panes of glass that trap heat within the enclosure of
a greenhouse. In this age of information, the public readily associates
increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration with global warming.
Combustion of wood and fossil fuels—coal, oil, or natural gas—for
industry, transportation, electricity, heat, etc., creates the CO2 that
is a major force altering the world’s atmospheric composition (see
Figure 1). The projected result of this change is demonstrated by computer
models of the enhanced greenhouse effect that anticipate a significant net
increase in the average global temperature, from 1.5 to 4.5°C, by the
year 2050.

Many in the present
generation will live to see consequences ascribed to global warming. For
example, little change in CO2 levels occurred prior to the industrial revolution,
but present change is dramatic, with a 30% increase from 1850 to 1980. Figure 1
illustrates there is an unmistakable steady upward trend ('Average’
Value). Remarkably this process has a momentum of its own and CO2 levels
continued to increase even when fossil fuel use was curtailed in the 80s
(compare Figures 1 & 4). Conceivably, fires related to deforestation
and processes other than fossil fuel use also contribute to CO2 rise. Here,
human activity causes global change due to one specific factor. Atmospheric
methane also acts as a highly efficient greenhouse gas by trapping 25% of
the atmosphere’s heat energy. Sources for this gas include termites,
cows, wetlands, garbage dumps, and industrial operations. Overall, the longer
extra CO2 resides in the atmosphere the more heat is gained by Earth. The
increased CO2 represents a driving force because, over time, the
greenhouse effect alters weather patterns, rainfall distribution, growing
seasons, and threatens to melt glaciers and polar ice caps—resulting
in sea level rise and other shocks to the environment and Earth’s inhabitants.

Figure 1: Global
Carbon Dioxide Concentration. Seasonal measurements, made at Hawaii’s
Mauna Loa observatory, vary throughout the year as represented by the
short segment labeled 'Seasonal Variation’ (e.g. 1964 through
1966). The variation corresponds to absorption of carbon dioxide by
plants during growing seasons and net increases during the remainder
of the year. Overall, the global trend is a steady upward rise in atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration, which is represented by the line labeled
'Average’ Value.

At this point some
statistics help to paint a larger picture. For example, the US. population
represents only 4.5% of the world’s total, yet this one nation produces
25% of the global CO2 emissions. Each year, for every person in the US.,
over 13,227.6 pounds of CO2 are put in the atmosphere because of affluent
life styles. Every time I turn on a light, start the car, touch the thermostat,
I contribute to a global problem. Citizens of the world’s industrial
countries use the most fossil fuel and produce the highest emissions of
greenhouse gases. According to 1987 estimates, each year the world community
liberates over 6 billion metric tons of CO2 to the atmosphere (over 13,000,000,000,000
or—in scientific notation—1.3 x 1011 pounds).

The numbers only
grow because consumption of fossil fuel and CO2 emissions rise further as
other peoples—especially the multitudes in developing regions—strive
to obtain the US. standard of living. Population growth means driving forces
increase, not lessen, with time. Future global projections indicate an additional
75% increase in CO2 occurs as humanity approaches the middle of the next
century, 50 to 60 years away. Earth’s atmospheric CO2 levels will be
two-fold greater in 2050 compared to 1850. Undeniably humanity has changed
conditions on Earth—and this doubling of CO2 appears within the brief
span of several human life times—since the days when Mr. Thoreau wrote
of his experience at Walden Pond.

• Ozone Depletion

Scientific journals
and newspapers describe how chloro-fluro-carbon (CFC) compounds degrade
the naturally occurring ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. There, ozone
serves as a solar filter absorbing harmful ultraviolet light (UV). The scientific
community was first alarmed by enlarging ozone holes over Antarctica and
Australia, but now global concerns grow with evidence for holes appearing
over the northern hemisphere.

Will this problem
go away soon? One alarming possibility, a warning raised by concerned scientists,
indicates present amounts of atmospheric CFCs are sufficient to degrade stratospheric ozone for the next 100 years (SXi 90). Simply banning
use of CFCs does not end the immediate problem.

Without the ozone
barrier humans face increased rates of eye damage, skin cancers, animal
immune disorders, and damage to agricultural crops. The consequence of high
UV exposure for all of Earth’s life forms, from the simplest marine
life to human beings, is a topic scientists continue to explore. This theme
resurfaces later, in Part Four, along with other environmental penalties humanity is destined to see—especially in light of the prospect that
one day soon any exposure to the Sun may present a severe health risk.

• Air Pollution;

Atmospheric chemistry
mirrors change through perplexing relationships. While ozone is lost to
the upper atmosphere, human activity causes increased ozone production in
the lower atmosphere. On the Earth’s surface, automobile and industrial
pollutants cause formation of ozone, nitrous oxide, and hydrocarbons producing
pollution called smog (smoke + fog). While beneficial up above,
down below ozone is harmful to native plants and agricultural crops. This
degrades natural ecosystems and reduces farm yields. City smog poses a hazard
to human health and by its chemical activity damages architectural structures.

Less obvious are
emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, released from power plant and industrial
smoke stacks, that are the source of acid rain. This acid deposition has
a long reach. Pollutants released to the atmosphere move with clouds producing
rain which later falls on distant cities and forests. The acidity flushes
nutrients from soils, diminishes or eliminates native fish and water fowl
populations, and slowly weakens trees and plant life which eventually die
from disease or soil infertility. And this is part of the global change
I see near my summer home.

As coal and automobile
use increases, the effects of acid rain spread over larger geographic areas.
For example, increasing coal combustion to generate electricity for China’s
expanding industrial base correspondingly produces more acid rain—and
coincidentally dramatic increases in CO2 emissions, too. China has made
an effort to use coal efficiently, but China’s immense work force needs
electric power. Economically, alternate fuels are difficult to justify when
China holds the world’s largest known coal deposits.

• Consequences
of Climate Change

Models and data used
to predict climate change differ—model to model, lab to lab—leading
to general conclusions about the Earth’s future temperatures, light
quality, and rainfall distribution. No one expects totally uniform change.
Thus, global warming may manifest itself as generally warmer night temperatures
in some places and extreme local cooling elsewhere. Change will appear in
regional episodes—much like hurricane intensities that in the mid-90s
rose to historic heights or as in 1993 when massive floods covered the US.
Midwest and simultaneously drought dried the southeast. To our thinking,
the severest, most graphic evidence for climate change appears after crops
fail, when food prices fluctuate, and as live stock inventories dwindle.
When does climate change become a personal reality? I can imagine your reaction
if daily food expenses threaten to exceed one's daily wage. Is this possible?
Yes—for this is one of a number of global circumstances documented
in this book’s timeline conclusion.

Figure 2: Global
Temperature Change. This plot of temperature over time represents a
world-wide summary. Raw temperature data, collected on a regional basis,
only indicates seasonal change in a single geographic area A net change
in global surface temperature is shown here relative to a zero-base
line. This model, among others, argues in favor of a net increase in
global temperatures over recent time.

Not all change is
negative. Loss of favorable conditions in one locality suggest improvement
elsewhere. My concern lies in the pace of change. As indicated by Figure 2,
real temperature change occurred during the 1900s. The expected alteration
in global weather patterns may already contribute to expansion of deserts
and deforestation. Elsewhere, rain-forest destruction in the Amazon brings
drought to the affected area. In the balance, waste regions on the planet
turning hospitable to vegetation take decades or centuries to form stable
grasslands and forests. Humans can plant trees for reforestation, but thereafter
must hope for success and prolonged stable climatic conditions. There is
no quick fix for these global issues. The scientific community calls for
measures to slow rates of change in hopes of reaching some new level of
environmental stability. Critics of this approach recognize most humans
fail to perceive a problem, day to day, and many affluent beings are unwilling
to alter their life style to achieve these objectives.

How are you to understand
seemingly imperceptible—year to year—climate changes? Figure 2
gives some clues. While the debate about global models rages on, I watch
climate change follow a timeline. The graph describes the meandering nature
of yearly average surface temperatures on Earth. Overall there is a net
increase in temperature. From 1850 to the present, the change in temperature
is a rise of approximately 0.8 °C. Walden Pond is a warmer place
now than in Henry’s day. If the trend is upward, increased CO2 represents
a catalyst for a dramatic increase in global temperature. At no previous
time have humans lived with such high levels of CO2. If the Earth and atmosphere
hit some unforeseen threshold for dramatic climate change, events that follow
will be absolutely beyond human control.

I have only mentioned
several aspects of climate change. Pollution, temperature, cloud patterns,
acidity, quality of light, distribution of rain and related factors influence
the quality of life on Earth. My appreciation for a larger process at work
recognizes that human-driven change influences the world’s plant and
animal life—especially where native habitats are altered beyond existence.
Where does one live without their house? Where would humanity be without
a habitable planet?

This
is just one of many panes in the WindowView. This is a fraction of the
process identified earlier within the section entitled 'Convergence.'
Keep exploring the view, visit our page titled 'Experience
WindowView' to see how global changes are part of a larger holistic
paradigm which is the reason behind assembling this cyber-place. Putting
the picture together helps to envision humanity's direction along the
dimension of time.

A
copy of this text with footnotes and a complete listing of references
used in writing this text can be obtained by downloading the chapters
and reference list for the Creator's
Window. References that appear as ''(SXi #)'' signify the page number
from Sigma Xi's publication related to a 1991 forum on global change
(see reference list for the Creator's Window for a complete citation
of this work).

The importance to global change is in looking at how social, biological, and physical sciences all reveal data and signs for more ominous changes in the near future. This is change in every aspect of human and earthly affairs ... globally. The Window looks further to see change as a backdrop to a biblical timeline. Driving forces for change force us to ask the most important questions about our true origin, who we are, why we are here, and what the Scriptures tell us about the future. Change forces us to look deeper to face choice or crisis. Life is an opportunity to look for the answers.

For a general listing of books, visit the WindowView Book Page for: Science and Scripture .

Step Up To Life

Time spent looking ... through a window on life and choice ... brings the opportunity to see in a new light. The offer for you to Step Up To Life is presented on many of the web pages at WindowView. Without further explanation we offer you the steps here ... knowing that depending on what you have seen or may yet explore in the window ... these steps will be the most important of your life ...