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Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

The preseason isn't the regular season. It happens every year - severla players look really good in October and then struggle during the regular season when teams prepare for players, when veterans play harder.

I hope Hibbert is great - but it is way to early to know what he will become

To my knowledge, no one has based any of this on preseason results. To me it's not even an issue of this year. I have a much longer view. It's an issue of risk/reward.

There is little risk to giving the rookies a good dose of PT, and since neither Foster or Nesterovic have their best days ahead of them, there aren't many reasons to give Hibbert as much time. The only reason I would put Nesterovic in a position to get major minutes is to feature him for a contending team in need of a back-up center. Otherwise, let his contract expire and reap the cap space.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

I think the pace of the regular season will be too much for Hibbert if he starts. I think having Rasho playing and having Foster and Hibbert coming off of the bench together would be beneficial. Hibbert still struggles to command the boards. Murphy struggles to command them at times. Granger is drifting farther away from the lane to help cause he has to guard the top perimeter player.

I think the best person for Roy to be next to is Foster. But that does not work in JOB's system.

Listen the preseason is a mirage. If Roy continues to progress throughout the season and his conditioning continues to improve then he may be ready to come in and get more minutes. But that still does not guarantee he will start.

Centers in this league are faster than the Aaron Grays Hibbert has faced in the preseason.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Here is what worries me about Rosho, what in the number of times he's been tabbed as a starter has he done which makes him a starter over Foster who has done much more on a per minute basis?

Centers in this league are faster than Nesterovic. Again, none of this has anything to do with the preseason performances.

One thing you don't have to question is Rasho's value to a team. His contributions often don't show up in the box score, but he's a very solid player. In comparing him to Foster, I'd say Rasho's post defense is slightly better, and while he may not shoot much or demand the ball much, he has some slight post game, and he's a threat to hit a 15 foot jumper consistently, which Foster isn't. Having Rasho in there opens driving lanes and makes it harder to double, which makes the game much easier for the scorers in this offense. If he's good enough to start for Popovich, he's good enough for me.

As for the rookies, I'm really encouraged by their play, but I'd rather see them get backup rotation minutes this year. There's so much that they're adjusting to right now, from the actual level of competition and NBA officiating to being on the road for months at a time and getting home from a place like Portland at 3am and having to play a game the next night. Money, groupies, etc., the NBA rookie has a lot to contend with, so I think it's a good thing to let take it slow at first.

For reference, neither Reggie Miller nor Danny Granger started their rookie year, and they turned out ok. Also, neither of them is a Center, which is the slowest position to develop a player at.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Show me a team which won a championship without a true low post presence in the last 50 years, and I'll show you a team which played great defense. Not to say those teams with a low post presence didn't also play great defense, but Pistons teams and Bulls teams were great defensive teams. In the case of the Bulls, they had Jordan.

I'm not sure the Pacers have any of those ingredients right now. I would mold this team after the Pacers' teams which made the finals or even the conference finals. A low post threat is pretty appealing, and as exciting as JOB's offense is, the last I checked the Phoenix just scrapped the entire system with much talent than the Pacers have had in the last four years.

Well......I agree with you on the notion that the way this offense is run that I feel that it could get us back to the Playoffs but won't really sustain us for a deep Playoff run....but that's something that you would have to take up with Bird and JO'B. Given the likelihood of having JO'B around for another season or two....my guess is that we won't be seeing a change of offense/defense to the half-court offense that I'm guessing that you are suggesting.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

While I don't like the Larry Brown rookies-ride-the-pine method, I'm not so sure you build a rookie's confidence by throwing them into the deep end against starters and letting them get taken apart. I mean, we're not talking Shaq/LeBron/Wade level guys here.

Seems to me that getting the bulk of the bench minutes at their positions will do plenty to develop their contributions and confidence.

This may be a year destined for mediocrity, but we need to win some games in order to rebuild the confidence of the fan base. That probably means at least winning more games than last year, probably a first-round-and-out, but it is a visible improvement to the community.

BillS

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Jim R,

Execellent points. I agree 100% with your original comments and your arguments in support of this.

What happens this season can have a huge impact on the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. Getting Hibbert and Rush into the starting lineup - letting them learn to play the NBA game during actual games against first-string competition is vital. This is not a win-now team and the team is unlikely to make the playoffs, no matter who plays the most minutes. Therefore, the viewpoint MUST be long-term, even if Roy and Brandon hit a few bumps in the road this season they need a coach committed to keeping them on the court, learning, and developing.

If these are not the two young men to add to Granger to build around, then we need to determine that immediately and try again next summer.

It seems to me that both young men are mature enough to handle whatever adversity might be coming thier way. I wouldn't want to take this strategy with an early-entry guy that only played one season of college ball and is supremely immature.

This season in isolation (like it or not) is a throw-away. But it can be the foundation of bigger things to come and I believe the fan base will recognize the small steps of improvement and gradually get on board.

EDIT - by the way, if you shelter a rookie from the 'rookie wall' by limiting thier minutes, then you just postpone that situation until the following year. We call it the "sophomore slump". The 'rookie wall' isn't something you back away from, it is a necessary part of a young player's learning curve.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

If this season is inded a "throw-away" season, then I would state that the primary goal is to be as good as we are capable of being at the end of the season.

If that is the case, then I would agree that an important part of the Pacer future would be in evaluating and developing our youngsters as much as possible.

However, I think that we are forced to also look at our season from a different perspective. Bird has made significant strides in ridding the roster of players that have been percieved as "driving fans away". One more trade, and in my book he will have achieved perfection in that department.

This has been primarily to put fans back into the seats. But bringing back fans, as we know, goes further than that. We must be consistently competitive, and of course winning more games would also be nice.

The foremost thing to remember is that the Pacers are a business. Their profit is determined in large part by player salaries and by the number of fans that are the seats.

So, there is a pretty delicate balance between preparing young players for the future and possibly sacrificing a few wins, and doing whatever is necessary to maximize the number of wins this season.

From my perspective, I believe that the Pacers present situation with their fans is such that maximizing competitiveness and number of wins is of primary important now that the roster has been overhauled.

For that reason, barring injuries, I don't see any of our youngsters getting significant minutes in the first couple of months of the season.

Through Christmas, I believe Hibbert might average 12-15 minutes and Rush maybe as much as 15-18 minutes per game.

Starting in January, it might then be possible to find more minutes for them.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

While I don't like the Larry Brown rookies-ride-the-pine method, I'm not so sure you build a rookie's confidence by throwing them into the deep end against starters and letting them get taken apart. I mean, we're not talking Shaq/LeBron/Wade level guys here.

Seems to me that getting the bulk of the bench minutes at their positions will do plenty to develop their contributions and confidence.

This may be a year destined for mediocrity, but we need to win some games in order to rebuild the confidence of the fan base. That probably means at least winning more games than last year, probably a first-round-and-out, but it is a visible improvement to the community.

This is an excellent point. Not every player develops best in the same way. It does seem likely that Rush and Hibbert have the temperament to deal with the certain failures associated with the experiment proposed, but this is definitely not a wise approach in all cases. Some players should be brought along slowly. I would wonder if Jamaal Tinsley had been spoon fed early in his career, made to apprentice for a year or two, if he wouldn't have been a different player.

While I ardently hope that Rush and Hibbert see regular, sustained playing time, and would be thrilled if one of the two ended up in the starting lineup by year's end, I would prefer that they earn it. The problem I have with the OP's thrust is that I consider it to be a different vein of the same "confusing activity with accomplishment" type strategies that had been employed up until this offseason.

Since the brawl, the Pacers have kept doing things in hopes that it would make things better: trade Artest for Peja, let Peja walk, but snare a TE, use the TE & a first for Al, Trade Al & Jax for Murphleavy & Ike, Fire Carlisle, Hire O'Brien, all peppered with small AJ/Austin type deals. There was no coherence to the approach, and the team lurched around like a drunk who couldn't remember where he put his keys.

While this proposal does at least have an eye towards the future, and therefore, some sense of direction, I still think that it may be shortcutting things too much for my taste. I do believe that Bird does view Brandon Rush as the future starting 2, and Roy as the future starting 5. However, I would prefer that we figure out the best way to get there from where we are now rather than just plugging them in and letting them sink or swim.

The other thing that I find troublesome in this thread is the idea of using assets to get a "stud PF". While I agree that there are holes in the structure of this team, and I recognize that we will probably have to part with some valued assets to fill them, I get heartburn when I see this idea thrown around so cavalierly. It's kind of the "then a miracle occurs" strategy. We talk about what we need in broad terms, but we never identify who can fill that role, or how practical it is to get them.

I consider this summer to be a good start because of the following:

- We significantly improved our financial flexibility and position.
- We added four young players (Ford, Rush, Hibbert, and Jack) that can reasonably be considered to likely pieces of the future foundation.
- We are in the process of severing the ties (at least symbolically) to the past few years with the trades of JO and Shawne, and whatever upcoming Tinsley deal occurs.

This is going to be an evolution, not a revolution. I would certainly consider a year where Rush and Hibbert ride the pine in favor of short rotations including Rasho, Croshere, Foster, & Daniels a disappointment and alarming failure. However, I cannot say definitively that throwing Rush & Hibbert out there would be the right thing to do.

I would consider it to be an unqualified success if Hibbert could play the same kind of role Reggie did as a rookie: 20+min per game as THE backup, clearly being groomed to replace the veteran starter. Rush is more difficult to judge because of the presence of Granger, Dunleavy, and Jack, but I am hopeful he can average 15-20 minutes a night, occasionally playing down the stretch as the guy with the hot hand.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

This may be a year destined for mediocrity, but we need to win some games in order to rebuild the confidence of the fan base. That probably means at least winning more games than last year, probably a first-round-and-out, but it is a visible improvement to the community.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

While I ardently hope that Rush and Hibbert see regular, sustained playing time, and would be thrilled if one of the two ended up in the starting lineup by year's end, I would prefer that they earn it.

Absolutely. We complain about an entitlement mentality, but that's what you get if you start an inferior player over a superior one.

If Hibby wants to start over Rasho he needs to be a better player than Rasho.

Absolutely. We complain about an entitlement mentality, but that's what you get if you start an inferior player over a superior one.

If Hibby wants to start over Rasho he needs to be a better player than Rasho.

Never let a vision for the future get in the way of the almighty "play 0.500 and hope for a #8 spot" approach.

- - - - - - - - - -

You guys realize that Donnie Walsh is running the Knicks now, right? All of Donnie's strategy can be thrown out the window.

Bird may or may not be smart enough to do the job, but he doesn't strike me as being interested in having a 0.500 team barely make the playoffs unless it is a team on the rise.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Never let a vision for the future get in the way of the almight "play 0.500 and hope for a #8 spot" approach.

I think that is what we should expect. To expand on what beast23 alluded to.....Bird is on a mission to bring the fans back to Conseco Fieldhouse by focusing on winning now and returning to the Playoffs. My wish is that we can win games by playing Hibbert and Rush as much as possible.....but realistically, my guess is that more often then not.....winning games will mean that they won't be getting as many minutes as we hope.

Right now, Bird thinks that winning games....despite the liklihood that we would still end up in 8th place in the East....is far more important then trying to develop Hibbert and Rush. Although this mentality is only looking down the road for 1-2 seasons.......if we can't bring in the fans by winning now....there won't be a reason to look to the future.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

I think Bird the salesman is trying to get fans back in any way possible. I think Bird the Team President cares far less about this seasons' W/L record and more about making progress with his new players.

He clearly can't come out and say, "we're gonna suck this year, but buy tickets anyway."

I think some people are putting too much stock in Bird-in-the-role-of-season-ticket-saleman's words. I think he hates mediocrity far more than he hates losing-with-a-plan.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Execellent points. I agree 100% with your original comments and your arguments in support of this.

What happens this season can have a huge impact on the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. Getting Hibbert and Rush into the starting lineup - letting them learn to play the NBA game during actual games against first-string competition is vital. This is not a win-now team and the team is unlikely to make the playoffs, no matter who plays the most minutes. Therefore, the viewpoint MUST be long-term, even if Roy and Brandon hit a few bumps in the road this season they need a coach committed to keeping them on the court, learning, and developing.

If these are not the two young men to add to Granger to build around, then we need to determine that immediately and try again next summer.

It seems to me that both young men are mature enough to handle whatever adversity might be coming thier way. I wouldn't want to take this strategy with an early-entry guy that only played one season of college ball and is supremely immature.

This season in isolation (like it or not) is a throw-away. But it can be the foundation of bigger things to come and I believe the fan base will recognize the small steps of improvement and gradually get on board.

EDIT - by the way, if you shelter a rookie from the 'rookie wall' by limiting thier minutes, then you just postpone that situation until the following year. We call it the "sophomore slump". The 'rookie wall' isn't something you back away from, it is a necessary part of a young player's learning curve.

Amazingly I mostly agree with you. I'm trying to figure when the last time that happened was. As far as Hibbert starting, I don't think it necessarily makes a difference if he starts, but rather the playing time he gets. And certinaly, he needs playing time against the starters of the opposing team.

Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Because Pacer Nation has a severe case of myopia, the best thing that could happen to this franchise is for the anticipated lineup of Ford-Dun-Granger-Murphy/Foster-Rasho to lay a rotten egg during November so that the fans get restless to see Rush and Hibbert. I believe that by April the lineup of PG-Rush-Granger-Murphy-Hibbert will be best lineup we can put on the court and the best chance of winning 30+ games this season.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Because Pacer Nation has a severe case of myopia, the best thing that could happen to this franchise is for the anticipated lineup of Ford-Dun-Granger-Murphy/Foster-Rasho to lay a rotten egg during November so that the fans get restless to see Rush and Hibbert. I believe that by April the lineup of PG-Rush-Granger-Murphy-Hibbert will be best lineup we can put on the court and the best chance of winning 30+ games this season.

I still disagree. I think it would be best for both of our rookies to come off the bench. Someone stated before that they aren't ready to take on other starters. I feel that maybe that for the remaining preseason games we try that approach, and see where it gets us. Obviously, without our core we cannot get far, but I really feel that we need to re-think this whole starting the rookies thing for now.

Never let a vision for the future get in the way of the almighty "play 0.500 and hope for a #8 spot" approach.

- - - - - - - - - -

You guys realize that Donnie Walsh is running the Knicks now, right? All of Donnie's strategy can be thrown out the window.

Bird may or may not be smart enough to do the job, but he doesn't strike me as being interested in having a 0.500 team barely make the playoffs unless it is a team on the rise.

That's not what either of us are saying. We are not talking about wins or losses, but a player actually proving that he belongs on the floor. The question is "does this player deserve playing time?", not "Can this player help me win today?" The first question should always be asked. The second question should only be asked when the team is at a sufficiently high level of competitiveness/competition.

Taking it further, I also have concerns about putting the player on the floor with at least the opportunity to succeed. Yes, the player can learn from failure, but failure without the chance of success will be costly, and I'm talking about the player, not the team.

I cannot speak for Anthem, but I would tend to factor a player's development into whether I consider him to be inferior/superior. As an example, I might consider Marquis a better NBA player than Brandon today. However, if I look at the two, and I can see how Brandon is currently closing the gap and will eventually overtake him, then I would consider Brandon the "superior" player, despite fact that it might not be true today.

This came up in the conversation I had with rexnom...we should start and maintain a meritocracy, but, as you note, it should involve the "vision" of what the players will be. It is not a strict interpretation of the narrow world of "today".

My objection to the "throw 'em in" plan is two-fold: 1st - the negatives of entitlement, and 2nd - the question as to whether that approach is the best way to maximize the development of that particular player. Overall, I'm less concerned with what this would do to our Win/Loss record, and more concerned with what this could do to both the player and the culture of the team.

I think Bird the salesman is trying to get fans back in any way possible. I think Bird the Team President cares far less about this seasons' W/L record and more about making progress with his new players.

He clearly can't come out and say, "we're gonna suck this year, but buy tickets anyway."

I think some people are putting too much stock in Bird-in-the-role-of-season-ticket-saleman's words. I think he hates mediocrity far more than he hates losing-with-a-plan.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

You guys act like no rookie has ever started an NBA game before. Hell, Chuck Person took a team with more holes than a block of swiss cheese to the playoffs as a rookie, playing 36 mpg.

I see no reason these guys aren't ready. We're not talking about 20 y/o's with immaturity and incomplete games (like Shawne Williams, for example.)

Will it be bumpy? Yes. So what? The alternatives don't exactly scream PLAYOFF CONTENDER!, do they?

Stipo played 30 mpg as a rookie and Smits played 25 mpg as rookie. Both were staters. Smits struggled with foul difficulty or he would have played more mpg.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Count,

That's fair. In my imaginary I've-never-actually-had-a-conversation-with-any-of-these-guys world, I'm convinced that Rush and Hibbert are mentally tough enough to handle playing time and responsibility right now.

To me, they both are oozing maturity.

Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
And life itself, rushing over me
Life itself, the wind in black elms,
Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Hibbert and Rush are challenging for my most favorite Pacers...but IMO whoever earns the spot should get to start. What a novel idea.

All Hibbert and Rush need is enough time during the regular season to prove themselves. I do not favor a rookie starting until he has proven he's equal or better. Yes, that means I favor a rook over a 8 year vet of course.

Hibbert, who I am sky high on, has yet to play a regular season game against good competition. He has looked good against a couple of the weakest front lines in the NBA. No telling what happens when he is consistently up against the likes of Yao, Howard...and of course the great JO....lol.

Rush, who I am also sky high on, has played one good game out of three in the preseason. The other two I don't consider real impressive. In fact, I think supplanting Dunleavy will be harder for Rush than supplanting Rasho will be for Hibbert.

Re: Hibbert needs to start, and Rush needs lots of PT...

Since money has been mentioned I will ask:
Is it better (financially) to throw the kitchen sink at each individual game hoping for a few more wins and a spot in the playoffs in order to maximize butts in the seats in any one season... or is it better to allow some losses in the short term to (hopefully) build a better team for the long run?

Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."