tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74154302017-09-26T14:36:46.681+01:00Technology UpdateCommentary and analysis on advanced products and platforms, by Richard VeryardRichard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.comBlogger247125http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_u-JEi3AfaD0/SYBRf9S9EHI/AAAAAAAAAA0/KKizAcjK0tU/S75/100_0110%2Bcrop.JPGThis is an XML content feed. It is intended to be viewed in a newsreader or syndicated to another site.tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-15288778577275250162017-09-10T11:00:00.000+01:002017-09-26T14:36:46.706+01:00Blockchain and the Edge of Disruption - BrexitIn August 2017, the British government released a position paper on future customs arrangements with the EU following Brexit. Among other things, the paper suggested that new technology would address some of the challenges of maintaining trade "as frictionless as possible". In his report, the BBC technology correspondent mentioned number plate recognition, artificial intelligence, and of course blockchain. This week I met with a couple of our blockchain experts at Reply to brief me on what blockchain can and can't do to address this challenge.<br /><br />First, let's understand the nature of the challenge. When goods cross a customs border, they have to be declared. Some shipments are inspected to check that these declarations are accurate. This process has three objectives.<br /><ul><li>To ensure that the goods don't exceed some import/export quota, and to levy customs duties if necessary</li><li>To ensure that the goods satisfy applicable standards and regulations - for example food safety</li><li>To identify contraband or counterfeit goods </li></ul>Importers should be able to submit customs declarations electronically before the shipment reaches the border. This should enable customs officials (or algorithms working on their behalf) to select shipments for casual or close inspection, thus reducing delays at the border. <br /><br />Note that these processes already exist for goods entering the European single market. But the potential impact of Brexit is a massive increase in the volume of cross-border shipments, and current systems and procedures are not expected to be able to handle these volumes. Goods will be delayed, with implications not only for cost but also the quality of fresh produce. Just-in-time supply chains will be disrupted.&nbsp; <br /><br />The primary contribution of blockchain here is establish a robust and watertight data trail for goods. This means that if goods are properly labelled, the blockchain can deliver a complete history. This doesn't remove the need for customs declarations, but under certain conditions it could reduce the need for inspections at the border. For example, instead of being located at the border, a plain clothes customs inspector might visit retail outlets with a hand-held label reader, verifying the blockchain record associated with the label, with the power to seize goods and instigate prosecutions.<br /><br />The blockchain can tell you about the provenance of the item identified on the label, but what's to stop someone switching labels, reusing old labels or even cloning labels?<br /><br />For some goods the stakes are very high. The lost revenue from the smuggling and counterfeiting of cigarettes alone is estimated at €10bn a year. So a Europe-wide system is being implemented to track cigarettes: by May 2019 all tobacco products within the EU are required to be "marked with a unique identifier" and security stamp. So that's just one high-stakes product, with a relatively small number of manufacturers.<br /><br />For diamonds, the stakes are even higher. The Kimberly Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was introduced in 2003 to control trade in "conflict diamonds", but there are many flaws in the scheme. <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"If a consumer went into almost any jeweller in the UK and asked for the origin of a diamond on display, staff would most be most unlikely to be able confirm which country, let alone the mine, it was sourced from." [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/diamonds-blood-kimberley-process-mines-ethical">Guardian, March 2014</a>]</blockquote><br />My colleagues briefed me on some interesting innovations they are working on for specific high-value products. One possibility is to inscribe a unique identifier into the product itself. For example, diamonds can be etched with a laser, expensive shoes can have the identifier embedded in the heel. And with 3D printing, it may be possible to manufacture each item with its own unique identifier.<br /><br />Another possibility is to create a detailed description of each item. Everledger, which describes itself as a permanent ledger for high-value assets, uses more than 40 features, including colour and clarity, to create a diamond's ID. It is now moving on to other high-value products such as fine wine. In future, such schemes should make it more difficult to pull off the kind of criminal sleight of hand for which Rudy Kurniawan got ten years in prison. <br /><br />To prevent cloning, you need more than blockchain. Just as numberplate recognition fails if people can use false numberplates, so blockchain labelling fails if people such as Kurniawan can easily reuse or copy the labels. At a wine auction in 2006, he offered eight magnums of 1947 Château Lafleur. This immediately aroused suspicion, because only five magnums were ever produced. If he had sold each bottle separately, would anyone have noticed? Yes perhaps, if every sale had to be recorded in the blockchain.<br /><br />If criminals have access to such technologies as etching and 3D printing, they may be able to create exact copies of labels and products that would appear valid when checked against the blockchain. So to guard against this, the blockchain has to have sufficient visibility of the supply chain to detect any duplicates.<br /><br />In other words, to use blockchain properly, it's not enough to maintain a record of the origin of an item. You have to have a complete record of all transactions involving the item, including inspections. This means adding to the blockchain at every link in the supply chain. As the industry body BIFA observes in relation to blockchain generally, <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"this technology ... can only reap its full benefits if all stakeholders/members of the supply chain make use of the technology and can access it"</blockquote><br />Further difficulties arise where goods are processed. For example, when a large animal or fish is cut up into pieces, to be sold to multiple consumers. Blockchain can be used to check that the total weight of the pieces is consistent with the original weight of the whole, but again this assumes that all the pieces are tracked. However, there is considerable interest in getting this kind of scheme to work effectively for products where sustainability is a major issue, such as tuna.<br /><br />Where there are transformation points in the supply chain - such as cutting a rough diamond into jewels or cutting a whole tuna into steaks - these can be subject to special monitoring and certification, and this can itself be written into the blockchain for further reassurance.&nbsp; <br /><br /><br />In summary, my colleagues have convinced me that there are significant opportunities for blockchain in supporting the supply chain for selected high-value or safety-critical products, provided certain assumptions are met. Blockchain is not necessarily the whole solution, but works when appropriately combined with other innovations. <br /><br />But even these schemes will take years to get up to speed. We started with the problem of massive increases in the volume of shipments crossing customs borders. In the examples I've discussed here, customs facilitation is not the primary motive for introducing blockchain, but may be an additional benefit. However, it is hard to see a sufficient number of these schemes being operational in time for Brexit, let alone a universal system for all categories of goods.<br />&nbsp; <br /><br /><hr /><br />Stephen Adams, <a href="https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/blog/brexit-customs-questions">Brexit customs questions</a> (Global Counsel, 16 August 2017)<br /><br />Ian Allison, <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/blockchain-plus-3d-printing-equals-smart-manufacturing-ethereum-you-can-touch-1585747">Blockchain plus 3D printing equals 'smart manufacturing' and Ethereum you can touch</a> (International Business Times, 11 October 2016)<br /><br />Aleya Begum, <a href="https://www.gtreview.com/news/europe/uk-outlines-fantasy-post-brexit-customs-position/">UK outlines "fantasy" post-Brexit customs position</a> (GTR Review, 16 August 2017)<br /><br />British International Freight Association, <a href="http://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2017/feb/blockchain-technology-in-logistics">Blockchain Technology in Logistics</a> (BIFA, Feb 2017)<br /><br />Rory Cellan-Jones, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40939816">Can tech solve the Brexit border puzzle?</a> (BBC News, 16 August 2017) <br /><br />Matthew Lesh, <a href="http://brexitcentral.com/blockchain-innovative-solution-brexit-customs/">Blockchain offers an innovative solution to the Brexit customs puzzle</a> (Brexit Central, 17 August 2017)<br /><br />Natasha Lomas, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/29/everledger/">Everledger Is Using Blockchain To Combat Fraud, Starting With Diamonds</a> (TechCrunch 29 Jun 2015)<br /><br />Paul McClean, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d9dd2a2a-c2ee-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354">EU report backs joint effort to trace illicit cigarettes</a> (FT, 22 December 2016)<br /><br />Adele Peters, <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3063440/tracking-tuna-on-the-blockchain-to-prevent-slavery-and-overfishing">Tracking Tuna On The Blockchain To Prevent Slavery And Overfishing</a> (Fast Company, 8 Sept 2016) <br /><br />Jeff John Roberts, <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/09/21/pharma-blockchain/">Big Pharma Turns to Blockchain to Track Meds</a> (Fortune, 21 Sep 2017)<br /><br />Gian Volpicelli, <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/blockchain-conflict-diamonds-everledger">How the blockchain is helping stop the spread of conflict diamonds</a> (Wired, 15 February 2017)<br /><br />Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberley_Process_Certification_Scheme">Kimberly Process Certification Scheme</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Kurniawan">Rudy Kurniawan</a><br /><br /><br />Related Posts: <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.com/2017/09/blockchain-and-edge-of-disruption-fake.html">Blockchain and the Edge of Disruption - Fake News</a> (September 2017)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 22 September 2017</span> <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/31KNHQZVt-M" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-74092410902843848402017-09-01T22:17:00.000+01:002017-09-10T13:18:54.956+01:00Blockchain and the Edge of Disruption - Fake NewsIn a world where stability and trust are under threat, blockchain may seem to be a good way of holding the line. In the past month, @omribarzi has written several Forbes articles describing various applications of blockchain technology.<br /><br />In this post I want to look at his proposal for addressing the problem of fake news, in which he makes the following claims:<br /><ul><li>Blockchain Tech Seeks to Decentralize News </li><li>Blockchain Tech Can Fix Mainstream Media </li><li>Blockchain Can Also fix Social Media </li><li>Giving Control Back to the Users</li></ul>So let's start with the problem statement. <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"The biggest issue with news sources in the digital age is verifiability. ... During the last American election, accusations of bias were everywhere, and the public has grown sick of the lack of clear and unbiased journalism."</blockquote>&nbsp;One of the things that blockchain can do is provide a clear lineage for a given item. If someone presents you with a dodgy story and claims that it comes from a reputable source such as the BBC, you can (if you choose) inspect the blockchain to verify this claim.<br /><br />Or you could just look on the BBC website. It is not clear that blockchain is any easier or more reliable than other methods of fact-checking.<br /><br />One use case described in the article is that "writers can offer snippets -- concise summaries of news articles". Blockchain may be able to verify that an original news article has a reputable source, but how can Blockchain verify that the summary accurately represents the original news article or articles? Fake news can sometimes contain true snippets taken out of context, and juxtaposed with other material to create a deliberately false impression.<br /><br />A lot of recent fake news has been exposed by simple fact check. For example, the false assertion that President Obama played golf during Hurricane Katrina is refuted by a simple date check (Obama was not president during Katrina) or by looking at contemporary news reports. Is there a way that Blockchain could establish a link from the snippet to the fact-check?<br /><br />And the quality of news is not just dependent on identifying the source. The BBC is a reliable source of news for many topics, but in some areas (e.g. climate change, Brexit economics) a dogmatic notion of "balance" results in its giving the same respect to dubious minority opinions as to expert consensus. <br /><br />Verifiability is ultimately a question of methodology. Where a news story is controversial or politically charged, a good journalist or editor strongly prefers multiple independent sources, and will actively check the most obvious ways in which the story might be refuted (such as reverse image search). How is Blockchain going to help here?<br /><br />Most of the time, fact-checking is relatively easy if you can be bothered. The reason fake news flourishes is that people can't be bothered. Often they can't even be bothered to read the article or view the video before reposting something, so the "like" is based purely on a seductive headline.<br /><br />The article describes a platform called Snip, which will establish a reputation economy, and somehow remain immune to armies of bots. Snip means you never have to read long-form journalism (if you don't want to) and it has a machine learning algorithm "that learns you and your preferences so the end result is highly relevant personalize genuine news feed". Sounds pretty much like Facebook. Is that really "giving control back to the users"?<br /><br /><hr /><br />Omri Barzilay, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/omribarzilay/2017/08/14/why-blockchain-is-the-future-of-the-sharing-economy">Why Blockchain Is The Future Of The Sharing Economy</a> (Forbes, 14 August 2017)<br />Omri Barzilay, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/omribarzilay/2017/08/21/3-ways-blockchain-is-revolutionizing-cybersecurity">3 Ways Blockchain Is Revolutionizing Cybersecurity</a> (Forbes, 21 August 2017) <br />Omri Barzilay, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/omribarzilay/2017/08/28/how-blockchain-is-reinventing-your-news-feed">How Blockchain Is Reinventing Your News Feed</a> (Forbes, 28 August 2017)<br />Omri Barzilay, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/omribarzilay/2017/08/30/will-blockchain-change-the-way-we-invest">Will Blockchain Change The Way We Invest?</a> (Forbes, 30 August 2017)<br /><br />Alexandra Svokos, <a href="http://elitedaily.com/news/politics/barack-obama-actually-visited-hurricane-katrina-victims-haters-get/2059544/">Barack Obama Actually Visited Hurricane Katrina Victims, So Haters Get Out</a> (Elite Daily, 31 August 2017)<br /><br />Related Post: <a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/blockchain-and-edge-of-disruption-brexit.html">Blockchain and the Edge of Disruption - Brexit</a> (September 2017)&nbsp; <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/PmxGQBh7BaM" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-43947376591341622432017-03-01T22:42:00.000+00:002017-03-01T22:45:01.717+00:00The PowerPoint CollectionA collection of blogposts about PowerPoint.<br /><hr /><br /><a href="https://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2005/02/corrupting-evidence.html">Corrupting Evidence</a> (Feb 2005)&nbsp; <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><a href="http://www.edwardtufte.com/">Edward Tufte</a> is writing a book called Beautiful Evidence, about the proper and improper use of modern rhetorical media, such as PowerPoint. </blockquote><br /><a href="https://posiwid.blogspot.co.uk/2006/03/powerpoint.html">What Exactly is PowerPoint For?</a> (March 2006) <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Microsoft is making concerted efforts to improve their own use of PowerPoint, and to encourage others to use it better. Bill Gates spoke without slides in his keynote speech at <a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2006/03/mix06-keynote.html">Mix06</a>. </blockquote><br /><a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2006/05/beyond-bullet-points.html">Beyond Bullet Points</a> (May 2006) <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Some of my friends at Microsoft are excited about Cliff Atkinson and his "new" presentation style, based on the work of psychology professor Richard E. Mayer.</blockquote><br /><a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2006/05/whos-dick-in-winebar.html">Who's the Dick in the Wine Bar</a> (May 2006)<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">If you are accustomed to traditional PowerPoint, beware. You may find these videos disturbing. </blockquote><br /><a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2006/11/powerpoint-slides.html">PowerPoint Slides</a> (Nov 2006)<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">It is not Microsoft's fault if the Pentagon makes inappropriate use of the available tools. Loads of stupid documents have been written in Word, and loads of bad accounts produced in Excel. But it is PowerPoint gets most of the criticism.</blockquote><br /><a href="https://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2009/10/blame-powerpoint.html">Blame PowerPoint</a> (Oct 2009)<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">If different groups or communities use PowerPoint differently, there may be many different PowerPoints-in-use corresponding to a single PowerPoint-as-built.</blockquote><br /><a href="https://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2010/04/visualizing-complexity.html">Visualizing Complexity</a> (April 2010)<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">Lot of people have been mocking a diagram that attempts to visualize the complexity of the situation in Afghanistan using system dynamics, rendered as a PowerPoint slide. (Many people have chosen to blame PowerPoint for the complexity of this diagram.) See also <a href="https://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2010/07/understanding-complexity.html">Understanding Complexity</a> (July 2010)</blockquote><br /><a href="https://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2010/11/visual-cliche-in-architectural.html">Visual Cliché in Architectural Discourse</a> (Nov 2010) <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">The visual language of architectural discourse, from enterprise to software, is surprisingly weak. Many diagrams look as if they may have started as meaningful sentences, but they have been transformed into diagrams by discarding most of the words and putting the remaining words into coloured shapes, arranged artistically on the slide.</blockquote><br /><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/5S7c35iF5SQ" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-88535385684133231072016-04-27T01:24:00.003+01:002017-03-20T12:10:45.479+00:00The Power of TwitterLet's suppose I want to find an intelligent review of a film.<br /><br />If I just put the name of the film into Google, I will get endless repetitions of the synopsis, together with details of cinemas showing the film, or places to buy/download. <br /><br />In my post <a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2008/11/you-don-have-to-be-smart-to-search-here.html">You don't have to be smart to search here ... but it helps</a> (Nov 2008), I outlined one possible trick. If you put the name of the film together with a random cultural icon (my example was Lacan), you will get reviews of the film that name-drop the icon. That immediately filters out all the standard cinema listings. However, you might need to try a number of different cultural icons until you strike lucky.<br /><br />A second option is to subscribe to good magazines. When I watched the film Anomalisa, I didn't immediately make the connection with Schopenhauer. The connection was made for me by a fascinating review by Zadie Smith in the New York Review of Books.<br /><br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><div dir="ltr" lang="en">Zadie Smith on Anomalisa, Schopenhauer, human desire and despair <a href="https://t.co/JQFwM0P5Qz">https://t.co/JQFwM0P5Qz</a></div>— NY Review of Books (@nybooks) <a href="https://twitter.com/nybooks/status/700719523201208320">February 19, 2016</a></blockquote><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br /><br />Once you know that such a connection exists, you can use Google to find it. But Google won't make that connection for you - unless sufficient numbers of other people have already made that connection.<br /><br />So here's a third option. Twitter allows you to have a list of intelligent film critics, and intelligent magazines containing intelligent film reviews. Either you decide for yourself what counts as intelligent, or you adopt someone else's list. Then you can search through the list for seriously intelligent reviews of the latest film. You can't do anything quite like this with Google.<br /><br /><br />When you search for something, Google can give you page after page of practically identical material - for example, hundreds of newspapers all repeating the same press release. What one really wants is a search engine that works out which page represents the original source, which pages represent replications with no added content or value, and which pages offer additional commentary and interpretation. It is possible that Twitter, with its conversational structure, may be closer to providing this kind of navigation. But only if the platform can achieve reasonable commercial viability without being polluted.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/iIY90E2bDNM" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-68756954199294612732016-04-27T00:19:00.001+01:002016-04-27T01:25:27.117+01:00The Force of GooleWhen people talk about Internet Binging, they aren't talking about using the world's fourth most popular internet search engine. According to @<a href="https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/725017307748114432">ruskin147</a>'s BBC Radio Four documentary <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07875zc">The Force of Google</a> this evening, people don't even use the generic phrase "searching the internet". They use the word "Google". I think I heard someone say that the word is now more popular than the word "eggs".<br /><br />Rory discussed several ways that hard-boiled Google poaches Internet business, while scrambling our brains. <br /><br />1.&nbsp; Business is dependent on the caprice of Google ranking. Rory talks to the owner of a fly fishing company, which gets a significant proportion of his business via Google. When Google changed its algorithm in 2013, his webpage dropped from page one to page seven - almost equivalent to a commercial death penalty. Then inexplicably it climbed back again - the death penalty reprieved. Readers with long memories will remember the story of BMW (<a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2006/02/bmw-search-requests.htm">Feb 2006</a>), which was banished from Google for three days in 2006.<br /><div style="text-align: right;">&nbsp; </div>2. In trying to be as helpful as possible to searchers, Google sometimes fails to respect the interests of other information providers. For example, if you search for hotels in Bury, you get Google's automatically curated list before you get lists from rival platforms such as TripAdvisor and Yelp.&nbsp; <br /><br />3. In the past, there has been some evidence that Google is biased towards controversial new technologies, perhaps because the technology vendors spend more on advertising than the technology sceptics. I have noted this apparent bias in relation to Biometrics (<a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2003/11/google-and-spin.html">Nov 2003</a>) and RFID (<a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2005/11/google-and-spin-2.html">Nov 2005</a>). Google now seems to have made some progress on this issue - Rory looked up "fracking" and got a more even-handed view from Google than from Bing.<br /><br />4. Even without any obvious commercial or political agenda on Google's part, it is easy to see how Google's results could appear to show a lack of balance. Note for example the recent controversy about Unprofessional Hair. There have also been suggestions that Google page ranking could influence the public perception of politicians and thus sway elections.<br /><br />5. One of the most dangerous aspects of the Google phenomenon is the widespread illusion that Google gives you Objective Truth. Rory talks to Ben Gomes, who is described as Google's Guru of Search, who talks about the Quest for the Perfect Search.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><br />"The perfect search is giving you what you were looking for. Not just the words you typed - but what you were actually looking for." </blockquote><br />The programme gave the impression that Google is converging on the Perfect Search. Rory himself says he generally finds what he is looking for. My own experience is that it sometimes requires a fair amount of ingenuity to find stuff, especially interesting and original stuff. See my posts <a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2008/11/you-don-have-to-be-smart-to-search-here.html">You don't have to be smart to search here ... but it helps</a> (Nov 2008) and <a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2009/03/thinking-with-majority.html">Thinking with the Majority</a> (March 2009). See also <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-power-of-twitter.html">The Power of Twitter</a> (April 2016).<br /><br /><hr /><br />Wondering about the deliberate spelling mistake in the title of this post? I wanted to pay tribute to a listing from @brightonargus.<br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><div dir="ltr" lang="en">According to the Brighton Argus I've made a documentary about the power of a town in East Yorkshire.... <a href="https://t.co/UGhvcO2Ovv">pic.twitter.com/UGhvcO2Ovv</a></div>— Rory Cellan-Jones (@ruskin147) <a href="https://twitter.com/ruskin147/status/724952829673279488">April 26, 2016</a></blockquote>Which reminded me of the original Argus Panoptes, the giant who would be the mythical ancestor of Google. And also the ARGUS-IS system, a secret rival to Google's Street View.&nbsp; Even Argus may have flawed vision sometimes.<br /><br />Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argus_Panoptes">Argus Panoptes</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARGUS-IS">ARGUS-IS</a>.<br /><hr />Leigh Alexander, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/08/does-google-unprofessional-hair-results-prove-algorithms-racist-">Do Google's 'unprofessional hair' results show it is racist?</a> (Guardian 8 April 2016)<br /><br />Rory Cellan-Jones, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36131495">Six searches that show the power of Google</a> (BBC 26 April 2016)<br /><br />Konrad Krawczyk, <a href="http://www.digitaltrends.com/web/google-baidu-are-the-worlds-most-popular-search-engines/">Google is easily the most popular search engine, but have you heard who’s in second?</a> (Digital Trends, 3 July 2014)<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?a=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?a=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:2mJPEYqXBVI"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?d=2mJPEYqXBVI" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?a=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:7Q72WNTAKBA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?a=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:JEwB19i1-c4"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?i=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:JEwB19i1-c4" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?a=sP7v73NBgLs:f5K8etb_igk:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/IndustryAnalysis?d=dnMXMwOfBR0" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/sP7v73NBgLs" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-35486679373944157222016-04-03T09:30:00.000+01:002016-10-25T22:51:20.117+01:00From Networked BI to Collaborative BIBack in September 2005, I commented on some material by MicroStrategy identifying Five Types of Business Intelligence. I arranged these five types into a 2x2 matrix, and commented on the fact that the top right quadrant was then empty.&nbsp; <br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qacariekOj4/VwBP6CeeDyI/AAAAAAAAAGM/v737S4xP7MI6cDmdLAoNYLPhUhwYh9GeQ/s1600/image003.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qacariekOj4/VwBP6CeeDyI/AAAAAAAAAGM/v737S4xP7MI6cDmdLAoNYLPhUhwYh9GeQ/s320/image003.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />&nbsp; <br />The Cloud BI and analytics vendor Birst has now produced a similar matrix to explain what it is calling Networked BI, placing it in the top right quadrant. Gartner has been talking about Mode&nbsp;1 (conventional) and Mode&nbsp;2 (self-service) approaches to BI, so Birst is calling this Mode&nbsp;3.<br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PF1fDAt0apo/VxkAQvvRf_I/AAAAAAAAAGk/PduvsfOqzXYvKZsTK5vvEatmhatV3qw0wCKgB/s1600/BImatrix2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PF1fDAt0apo/VxkAQvvRf_I/AAAAAAAAAGk/PduvsfOqzXYvKZsTK5vvEatmhatV3qw0wCKgB/s320/BImatrix2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dOwaYru6ogQ/VwBRothTpXI/AAAAAAAAAGU/dknbKlG62k4M4Zfazo6oy28rBQ_YtZ1fA/s1600/image004.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><br />While there are some important technological advances and enablers in the Mode 3 quadrant, I also see it as a move towards Collaborative BI, which is about the collective ability of the organization to design experiments, to generate analytical insight, to interpret results, and to mobilize action and improvement. This means not only sharing the data, but also sharing the insight and the actioning of the insight. Thus we are not only driving data and analytics to the edge of the organization, but also developing the collective intelligence of the organization to use data and analytics in an agile yet joined-up way. <br /><br />I first mentioned Collaborative BI on my blog during 2005, and discussed it further in my article for the CBDI Journal in October 2005. The concept started to gather momentum a few years later, thanks to Gartner, which predicted the development of collaborative decision-making in 2009, as well as some interesting work by Wayne Eckerson. Also around this time, there were some promising developments by a few BI vendors, including arcplan and TIBCO. But internet searches for the concept are dominated by material between 2009 and 2012, and things seem to have gone quiet recently.<br /><br /><hr />Previous posts in this series<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2005/09/service-oriented-business-intelligence_22.htm">Service-Oriented Business Intelligence</a> (September 2005)<br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/from-business-intelligence-to.html">From Business Intelligence to Organizational Intelligence</a> (May 2009)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2011/03/tibco-platform-for-organizational.html">TIBCO Platform for Organizational Intelligence</a> (March 2011)<br /><br /><br />Other sources<br /><br /><a href="http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/856714">Gartner Reveals Five Business Intelligence Predictions for 2009 and Beyond</a> (Gartner, January 2009). Dave Linthicum, <a href="http://www.ebizq.net/blogs/linthicum/2009/05/gartner_reveals_five_business.php">Let's See How Gartner is Doing</a> (ebizQ, May 2009)<br /><br />Chris Middleton, <a href="http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Business-intelligence-Collaborative-decision-making">Business Intelligence: Collaborative Decision-Making</a> (Computer Weekly, July 2009)<br /><br />Ian Bertram, <a href="http://www-07.ibm.com/my/events/isbts/lotusiod/pdf/Collaborative_Decision-Making_Platforms-A_New_Way_to_Make_Decisions_Gartner_Ian_Bertram.pdf">Collaborative Decision-Making Platforms</a> (Gartner 2011)<br /><br />Wayne Eckerson, <a href="http://www.beyeresearch.com/study/15977">Collaborative Business Intelligence: Optimizing the Process of Making Decisions</a> (April 2012)<br /><br />Monique Morgan, <a href="http://www.arcplan.com/en/blog/2012/04/collaborative-bi-today-tomorrow/">Collaborative BI: Today and Tomorrow</a> (arcplan, April 2012)<br />Tiemo Winterkamp, <a href="http://www.arcplan.com/en/blog/2012/04/top-5-collaborative-bi-solution-criteria/">Top 5 Collaborative BI Solution Criteria</a> (arcplan, April 2012)<br /><br />Cliff Saran, <a href="http://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240241926/Prepare-for-two-modes-of-business-intelligence-says-Gartner">Prepare for two modes of business intelligence, says Gartner</a> (Computer Weekly, March 2015) <br /><br /><a href="https://www.birst.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Birst_NetworkedBI_WhitePaper.pdf">The Future of BI is Networked</a> (Birst, March 2016)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 21 April 2016 (image corrected) </span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/kfk7r2_8v70" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-28161906724881668482016-03-24T22:20:00.000+00:002016-03-31T16:14:43.038+01:00Artificial BelligerenceBack in the last century, when I was a postgraduate student in the Department of Computing and Control at Imperial College, some members of the department were involved in building an interactive exhibit for the Science Museum next door.<br /><br />As I recall, the exhibit was designed accept free text from members of the public, and would produce semi-intelligent responses, partly based on the users' input.<br /><br />Anticipating that young visitors might wish to trick the software into repeating rude words, an obscenity filter was programmed into the software. When some of my fellow students managed to hack into the obscenity file, they were taken aback by the sheer quantity and obscurity of the vocabulary that the academic staff (including some innocent-looking female lecturers) were able to blacklist.<br /><br />The chatbot recently launched onto Twitter and other social media platforms by Microsoft appears to be a more sophisticated version of that exhibit at the Science Museum so many years ago. But without the precautions. <br /><br />Within 24 hours, following a series of highly offensive tweets, the chatbot (known as Tay) was taken down. Many of the offensive tweets have been deleted. <br /><br /><br /><b>Before</b><br /><br />Matt Burgess, <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2016-03/23/tay-tweet-microsoft-artificial-intelligence-answers">Microsoft's new chatbot wants to hang out with millennials on Twitter</a> (Wired, 23 March 2016)<br /><br />Hugh Langley, <a href="http://www.techradar.com/news/internet/we-played-would-you-rather-with-tay-microsoft-s-ai-chat-bot-1317683">We played 'Would You Rather' with Tay, Microsoft's AI chat bot</a> (TechRadar, 23 March 2016)<br /><br />Nick Summers, <a href="http://www.engadget.com/2016/03/23/microsofts-tay-ai-chat-bot/">Microsoft's Tay is an AI chat bot with 'zero chill'</a> (Engadget, 23 March 2016)<br /><br /><br /><b>Just After</b><br /><br />Peter Bright, <a href="http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/03/microsoft-terminates-its-tay-ai-chatbot-after-she-turns-into-a-nazi/">Microsoft terminates its Tay AI chatbot after she turns into a Nazi</a> (Ars Technica<br /><br />Andrew Griffin, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/tay-tweets-microsoft-ai-chatbot-posts-racist-messages-about-loving-hitler-and-hating-jews-a6949926.html">Tay Tweets: Microsoft AI chatbot designed to learn from Twitter ends up endorsing Trump and praising Hitler</a> (Independent, 24 March 2016)<br /><br />Alex Hern, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/24/microsoft-scrambles-limit-pr-damage-over-abusive-ai-bot-tay">Microsoft scrambles to limit PR damage over abusive AI bot Tay</a> (Guardian, 24 March 2016)<br /><br />Elle Hunt, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/24/tay-microsofts-ai-chatbot-gets-a-crash-course-in-racism-from-twitter">Tay, Microsoft's AI chatbot, gets a crash course in racism from Twitter</a> (Guardian, 24 March 2016)<br /><br />Jane Wakefield, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35890188">Microsoft chatbot is taught to swear on Twitter</a> (BBC News, 24 March 2016)<br /><br /><br />"So Microsoft created a chat bot that so perfectly emulates a teenager that it went off spouting offensive things just for the sake of getting attention? I would say the engineers in Redmond succeeded beyond their wildest expectations, myself." (<a href="http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/03/microsoft-terminates-its-tay-ai-chatbot-after-she-turns-into-a-nazi/?comments=1&amp;post=30886463">Ars Praetorian</a>)<br /><br /><br />What a difference a day makes!<br /><br /><br /><b>Some Time After</b><br /><br />Peter Lee, <a href="http://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2016/03/25/learning-tays-introduction/">Learning from Tay's Introduction</a> (Official Microsoft Blog, 25 March 2016)<br /><br />Sam Shead, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/microsoft-faces-difficult-challenges-in-ai-design-after-chatbot-tay-2016-3">Microsoft says it faces 'difficult' challenges in AI design after chat bot Tay turned into a genocidal racist</a> (Business Insider, 26 March 2016)<br /><br />Paul Mason, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/microsoft-tay-tweets-antisemitic-racism">The racist hijacking of Microsoft’s chatbot shows how the internet teems with hate</a> (Guardian, 29 March 2016)<br /><br />Dina Bass, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-microsoft-future-ai-chatbots/">Clippy’s Back: The Future of Microsoft Is Chatbots</a> (Bloomberg, 30 March 2016)<br /><br />Rajyasree Sen, <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/HquMJrM4j7BABlA4kzKkyI/Microsofts-chatbot-Tay-is-a-mirror-to-Twitterverse.html">Microsoft’s chatbot Tay is a mirror to Twitterverse</a> (LiveMint, 31 March 2016)<br /><br /><br /><b>Brief Reprise</b><br /><br />Jon Russell, <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2016/03/30/you-are-too-fast-please-take-a-rest/">Microsoft AI bot Tay returns to Twitter, goes on spam tirade, then back to sleep</a> (TechCrunch, 30 March 2016)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 30 March 2016</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/ONeAhCXk-Ss" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-24111449458752393752015-11-28T13:01:00.000+00:002016-10-25T22:51:20.070+01:00Predictive and Real-Time AnalyticsI shall be chairing the @<a href="https://twitter.com/UNICOMSeminars/status/670222050510938112">UNICOMSeminars</a> Data Analytics conference next week. <a href="http://conferences.unicom.co.uk/data-analytics-business-value/">Exploring the Business Value of Predictive and Real-Time Analytics</a> (London, 2 December 2015) <br /><br />A lot of the obvious applications of real-time analytics are in fraud detection and predictive maintenance. I shall be talking about some of the things I’ve been doing recently in the retail and consumer sector, using rich consumer data to drive real-time personalized engagement with the consumer across multiple touchpoints. We have been exploring ways to combine real-time analysis of the consumer’s current state (e.g. current location, what products they are currently looking at, readiness to buy, etc.) with a rich understanding of what one might call the consumer’s “purchasing genes” – for example, do they like to spend a long time reviewing alternative products before purchasing, do they like to wait for a special offer or voucher before buying, or on the other hand do they like to be the first in their social network to have a given product. This is a lot more complex than simply putting them into a fixed number of “consumer segments”. <br /><br />Based on this analysis, it is possible to select an appropriate “next action” – for example, selecting the appropriate banner to display to the consumer when visiting the website, or the right topic of conversation for a human customer services agent.<br /><br />Thus predictive analytics are helping retail as it moves from omnichannel commerce (which joins up the buying transaction between the online and the physical world) to omnichannel engagement (which joins up all aspect of the relationship with the consumer). <br /><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4" style="width: 100%px;"> <tbody><tr> <td style="width: 50%px;" valign="top"><b>Omnichannel Commerce</b><br />(Systems of Record)<br /><br /><i>joins up the buying transaction between the online and the physical world</i> </td> <td style="width: 50%px;" valign="top"><b>Omnichannel Marketing</b><br />(Systems of Engagement)<br /><br /><i>joins up all aspects of the relationship with the consumer</i></td> </tr></tbody></table><br />Given the large volumes of data involved, and the reliance on legacy systems to produce and process the data, we are not yet seeing this analysis being completely done in real-time. However, there are some critical factors that have to be done in real-time. For example, as soon as the consumer buys something, our clients want to stop trying to sell it, and move to a post-sales scenario. (In comparison, even the great Google is still showing me advertisements based on what I was browsing three weeks ago. Fail!) <br /><br />Over the next couple of years, as the technology gets better, the data scientists get even smarter, and the marketing people get more sophisticated, we may expect an increasing proportion of the analysis to be done in real-time, using machine learning as well as more sophisticated analytics tools. <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/EVGjqWNCpnE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-84812151469076401042015-11-14T12:11:00.001+00:002016-10-25T22:51:20.192+01:00Towards the Internet of Underthings<span style="font-size: xx-small;">#WearableTech #InternetOfThings </span>Once upon a time, the wires in an undergarment merely provided structural support. Now, people may have all sorts of wires and wireless devices hidden under their clothing. Here are some interesting examples.<br /><br /><ul><li>The Foxleaf Bra delivers cancer-fighting drugs through the wearer's skin.</li><li>The @<a href="https://twitter.com/tweetingbra/status/453139110077935616">tweetingbra</a> reminds women to examine themselves. (?)</li><li>The Lumo Lift helps improve posture through app-enabled coaching.</li><li>Various manufacturers (including Clothing+, OMsignal and SmartLife) produce health vests and sportswear packed with monitors to track your heart rate, breathing rate and the amount of calories you've burnt. </li></ul><br />We are now encouraged to account for everything we do: footsteps, heartbeats, posture. Until recently this kind of micro-attention to oneself was regarded as slightly obsessional, nowadays it seems to be perfectly normal. And of course these data are collected, and sent to the cloud, and turned into someone else's big data. (Good luck with those privacy settings, by the way.)<br /><br />If a device is classed as a medical device, it will be subject to various forms of accreditation and regulation. For this reason, many device makers will be careful to avoid any specific medical claims, but devices that offer some health advice are considered a borderline area.<br /><br />Another borderline area is hi-tech underpants that protect men from the evil rays allegedly produced by all those wireless devices. Especially the radiation from mobile phones. (Including the Bluetooth that links your underwear to your smartphone.) One brand of underpants that claims to use a mesh of pure silver to create a Faraday cage around the genitals has been banned by the UK Advertising Standards Authority from making any medical claims.<br /><br />Or maybe you could just switch the whole lot off.<br /><br /><br /><hr /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.marketingresearch.org/article/wearable-medical-device-your-future%E2%80%A6is-now">The Wearable Medical Device in Your Future…Is Now!</a> (Marketing Research Association, 28 April 2015) </span><br /><ul></ul><span style="font-size: x-small;">Jennie Agg, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2987245/The-hi-tech-bra-helps-beat-breast-cancer-clothes-treat-prevent-illness.html">The hi-tech bra that helps you beat breast cancer - and other clothes that can treat or prevent illness</a> (Daily Mail, 10 March 2015)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Sarah Blackman, <a href="http://www.lingerieinsight.com/article-5748-student-designs-cancer-fighting-bra/">Student designs cancer-fighting bra</a> (Lingerie Insight, 10 Feb 2015)&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Britta O'Boyle, <a href="http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/133184-smartlife-clothing-claims-to-make-sure-you-never-miss-a-beat">SmartLife clothing claims to make sure you never miss a beat</a> (Pocket-Lint, 12 March 2015)&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Rob Crilly, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11178843/Hi-tech-pants-protect-sperm-from-phone-waves.html">Hi-tech pants "protect sperm from phone waves"</a> (Telegraph 22 October 2014)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Julie Papanek, <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2015/02/19/how-wearable-startups-can-win-big-in-the-medical-industry/">How Wearable Startups Can Win Big In The Medical Industry</a> (TechCrunch, 19 Feb 2015)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hannah Jane Parkinson, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/nov/14/lumo-lift-review-posture-tracking-gadget">Lumo Lift review: posture-tracking gadget is a straight shooter</a> (Guardian, 14 November 2014)&nbsp;</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Helen Popkin, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/tweeting-bra-exposed-genuine-support-or-publicity-lift-8C11467042">Tweeting bra exposed: Genuine support or publicity lift?</a> (NBC News 25 October 2013)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Meera Senthilingam, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/07/tech/smart-clothes-track-your-health/">How a high-tech bra could be your next doctor</a> (CNN, 11 May 2015)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Brendan Seibel, <a href="http://www.wired.com/2010/04/gallery-underwear/">High-Tech Underwear for Adventurous Geeks</a> (21 April 2010)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Mark Sweney, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/aug/13/underwear-brand-ad-banned-wireless-armoursir-richard-branson">Hi-tech underwear advert banned</a> (Guardian 13 August 2014)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Dan Sung, <a href="http://www.wareable.com/wearable-tech/world-cancer-day-foxleaf-real-wonderbra-739">World Cancer Day - The Real Wonderbra</a> (Wearable, 14 Feb 2015)&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">Related Posts <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/have-you-got-big-data-in-your-underwear.html">Have you got big data in your underwear</a> (December 2014)</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/eSKC_rajruk" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-37456981180482495722015-11-13T23:28:00.000+00:002016-10-24T16:38:26.352+01:00Weaving in three dimensionsA garment is essentially a three-dimensional object. And yet the most common way of producing garments is from flat sheets of material - for example cloth or leather - that can be cut into pieces and then sewn into items of clothing. So we have a complex interaction between two patterns - the weaving pattern on the cloth and the cutting pattern for the tailor.<br /><br />Some clothing designers have started to experiment with 3D printers, producing amazing fashion dresses and accessories.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-15K7iHuB1sE/WA4p5rtPmfI/AAAAAAAAAJA/1unJsNYYhQw84C3M1eiRtokKYrbV40ycgCEw/s1600/israeli-fashion-student-danit-peleg-3d-prints-entire-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-15K7iHuB1sE/WA4p5rtPmfI/AAAAAAAAAJA/1unJsNYYhQw84C3M1eiRtokKYrbV40ycgCEw/s320/israeli-fashion-student-danit-peleg-3d-prints-entire-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Designer: Danit Peleg</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rQbtDzYnZog/WA4p3ALdKaI/AAAAAAAAAI4/GrTAquHRJOoNokgDc2bAswpu0Pfhml8-QCEw/s1600/3d-printed-dress-cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rQbtDzYnZog/WA4p3ALdKaI/AAAAAAAAAI4/GrTAquHRJOoNokgDc2bAswpu0Pfhml8-QCEw/s320/3d-printed-dress-cropped.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Designers: Francis Bitonti and Michael Schmidt</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>For more examples, check out designers like <a href="http://www.continuumfashion.com/">Continuum Fashion</a>. <br /><br />But these costumes are mostly monochrome, and made from artificial materials such as nylon. Great for catwalk or party, or even a fashionable beach, but not exactly everyday wear. So instead of 3D printing, what about 3D weaving, using traditional materials? Here's something in linen.<br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L6AaV2kZUXc/WA4p4ZwMBjI/AAAAAAAAAI8/zeGR8RDACsYYbd6liyMxXR4747Z2-7SAQCEw/s1600/fashion-designer-adds-third-dimension-apparel-design-3d-weaving-00010.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L6AaV2kZUXc/WA4p4ZwMBjI/AAAAAAAAAI8/zeGR8RDACsYYbd6liyMxXR4747Z2-7SAQCEw/s320/fashion-designer-adds-third-dimension-apparel-design-3d-weaving-00010.jpg" width="226" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.3ders.org/articles/20150731-fashion-designer-adds-a-third-dimension-to-apparel-design-with-3d-weaving.html">Designer: Chen-Hsiang Hu</a></td></tr></tbody></table>The industrial designer Oluwaseyi Sosanya has developed a new 3D weaving method, which allows not only the exact shape and size of the garment to be varied to the exact requirements of the wearer, but also the qualities of the woven fabric. He has been experimenting with footwear, where the density of the sole can vary from one part of the foot to another.<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"With this [weaving system] you can pre-programme the density. At the ball of your foot, you may want a denser material. Right at the arch of your foot, you might want a softer material. At the heel, you might want a denser material. You can have that in one go." </blockquote><br />Furthermore, Sosanya's system allows the footwear to be customized to the wearer's requirements, from sports to orthopaedics.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"Your foot is completely different to my foot,” said Sosanya. “We walk different, our cadence is different. All of these things are factors which play into the performance of our footwear. Now with 3D printing, you can scan your foot and you can scan an insole or even a whole sole or the whole shoe at some point. The designer and the chiropodist can say that you need to remove some material here and you can correct your walking. You have all of these opportunities now where you can do customisation around footwear."&nbsp; </blockquote><br />Of course, there is some history here. According to Wikipedia, perforated paper tapes were first used to control looms around 1725, but this technology did not become widespread until Jacquard switched to punched cards around 1801.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacquard_loom" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/09/Jacquard.loom.cards.jpg/134px-Jacquard.loom.cards.jpg" width="149" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacquard_loom">Source: Wikipedia</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br />And according to the New Testament, Jesus wore a seamless robe for his crucifixion. One source (repeated around the internet, and now here) argues that this indicates an early Palestinian form of 3D weaving.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span class="inserted"><span class="inserted"><span class="inserted">"Completely seamless garments, like the one Jesus wore, were unique to Palestine. They were woven on upright looms that used two sets of vertical warp threads, one at the front and one at the back of a crossbar. The weaver would alternate his shuttle, which carried the horizontal weft thread, from the front part of the web to the back, 'thus creating a cylindric piece of fabric,' says one reference work. A seamless tunic would likely have been a rare possession, and the soldiers considered it a desirable one." (<a href="http://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/2009486#h=6">Watchtower, 1 July 2009 p22</a>)</span></span></span> </blockquote><br />If we combine these ancient and modern innovations, we can conceive of a very sophisticated form of personalization, in which the pattern on the cloth can be perfectly aligned with the cut of the garment, regardless of the size and shape of the wearer, without wasting material. And the material can be reinforced at elbows and shoulders. And the whole garment can be woven while you wait. No more child tailors in Far Eastern sweatshops then. <br /><br /><br /><hr /><br />Related Posts: <a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/the-new-economics-of-manufacturing.html">New Economics of Manufacturing</a> (November 2015) <br /><br />Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacquard_loom">Jacquard loom</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card">Punched card</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seamless_robe_of_Jesus">Seamless robe of Jesus</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.dezeen.com/2014/04/11/3d-woven-polyester-fabric-radiolaria-lamps-glow-dark-bernoat-co-milan-201/">3D-woven fabric creates organically shaped lamps that glow in the dark</a><br />(de zeen, 11 April 2014)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.dezeen.com/2014/06/23/oluwaseyi-sosanya-invents-3d-weaving-machine-show-rca-2014/">Oluwaseyi Sosanya invents 3D weaving machine</a> (de zeen, 23 June 2014)<br /><br />Alec Buren, <a href="http://www.3ders.org/articles/20150724-danit-peleg-3d-prints-entire-ready-to-wear-fashion-collection-at-home.html">Danit Peleg 3D prints entire ready-to-wear fashion collection at home</a> (3Ders, 24 July 2015)<br /><br />Simon Cosimo, <a href="http://www.3ders.org/articles/20150516-electroloom--the-worlds-first-3d-fabric-printer--launches-on-kickstarter.html">Electroloom - the world's first 3D fabric printer - launches on Kickstarter</a> (3Ders, 16 May 2015)<br /><br />Simon Cosimo, <a href="http://www.3ders.org/articles/20150731-fashion-designer-adds-a-third-dimension-to-apparel-design-with-3d-weaving.html">Fashion designer adds a third dimension to apparel design with '3D weaving'</a> (3Ders, 31 July 31) <br /><br />Shane Hickey, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/03/the-innovators-the-3d-weaving-machine-putting-new-heart-into-soles">The innovators: the 3D weaving machine putting new heart into soles</a> (Guardian 3 May 2015) <br /><br />Tanya Lewis, <a href="http://www.livescience.com/38720-3d-printing-weaves-its-way-into-fashion.html">3D Printing Weaves Its Way into Fashion</a> (LiveScience, 7 August 2013) <br /><br />Robert Sullivan, <a href="http://www.vogue.com/1065465/3-d-printing-fashion-future/">Envisioning the Future of 3-D Fashion: Welcome to the Virtual Dressing Room</a>(Vogue, 3 September 2014)<br /><br /><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/rYORGTS9-G4" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-18780117475168394432015-11-08T00:50:00.002+00:002016-10-25T18:40:51.882+01:00How Soon Might Humans Be Replaced At Work?#<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cipaai">CIPAai</a> An interesting debate on Artificial Intelligence took place at the Science Museum this week, sponsored by the Chartered Institute of Patent Agents. When will humans be replaced by computers in any given job?<br /><br />As this was the professional body for Patent Agents, they decided to pick an example close to their hearts. The specific motion being debated was that a patent would be filed and granted without human intervention within the next 25 years. The motion was passed roughly 80-60.<br /><br />At first sight, this debate appeared to be an exercise in technological forecasting. When would AI be capable of creating new inventions and correctly drafting the patent application? And when would AI be capable of evaluating a patent application, carrying out the necessary searches, and granting a patent. Is this the kind of thing we should expect when the much vaunted Singularity (predicted from around 2040 onwards) occurs?<br /><br />Speaking for the motion, Calum Chase and Chrissie Lightfoot were enthusiastic about the technological opportunities of AI. They pointed out the incredible feats that were already achieved as a result of machine learning, including some surprisingly creative solutions to technical problems.<br /><br />Speaking against the motion, Nigel Hanley and Ilya Kazi acknowledged the great contribution of computer intelligence to support the patent agent and patent examiner, but were sceptical that anyone would trust a computer with such an important task as filing and granting patents. Nigel Hanley pointed out the limitations of internet search, which is of course designed to find things that other people have already found. (As A.A. Milne put it, Thinking With The Majority.)<br /><br />The motion only required that a single patent be filed and granted without human intervention. It didn't need to be a particularly complicated one. But even to grant a single patent without human intervention would require a change in the law, presumably agreed internationally. (As it happens, my late father Kenneth Veryard was involved in the development of European Patent Law around 25 years ago, so I am aware of the time and painstaking effort required to achieve such international agreements.)<br /><br />But this reframes the debate: from a technological one about the future capability of computers, to a sociopolitical one about the possibility of institutional change. Even if some algorithm were good enough to compete with humans, at least for some routine patent matters, the question is whether politicians would be willing to entrust these matters to an algorithm.<br /><br />There are also strange questions of ownership and rights. Examples of computer intelligence always seem to come back to the usual suspects - Google, IBM Watson, and their ilk. If the creativity comes from the large computer networks run by these companies, then the patents will belong to these corporations. When Thomas Watson said, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers", he wasn't talking about billions of laptops or trillions of internet-enabled things, but the very much smaller number of major computer networks capable of controlling everything else.<br /><br />Can we realistically expect AI to take over one small area of patent law without taking over the much larger challenge of cleaning up legislation? After all, a genuine superintelligence might well come up with a much better basis for promoting innovation and protecting the interests of inventors than a few ancient principles of patent law.<br /><br />But perhaps here's the killer argument. As the volume of patent applications increases, the cost of processing them all by hand becomes prohibitive. So governments could be tempted by the cost-savings offered by a clever algorithm. Even though governments have a very bad track record at realising cost savings from IT projects, politicians can often be persuaded to think it will be different this time. <br /><br />So even if AI patent activity turns out not to be as good as when humans do it, and even if it subsequently results in a lot of seriously expensive litigation, it could seem a lot cheaper in the short-term. <br /><br /><hr /><b>References</b><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://news.cipa.org.uk/20CI-3RY2Q-LEC43A-1TX7HR-1/c.aspx" style="color: #002e57; text-decoration: underline;">http://www.cipadebate.org.uk/</a><br /><br />Steven Johnson, <a href="https://howwegettonext.com/superintelligence-now-eb824f57f487#.7gnzmdt66">Superintelligence Now</a> (How We Get To Next, 28 October 2015) <br /><br />James Nurton, <a href="http://www.managingip.com/Blog/3502938/Could-a-computer-do-your-job.html">Could a computer do your job</a> (Managing IP, 3 November 2015) <br /><br />Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity">Technological Singularity</a><br /><br /><br /><b>Related Posts</b><br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2006/06/end-of-google.html">The End of Google</a> (June 2006)<br /><br /><br /><b>Update</b><br /><br />For the potential ramifications of robotic legal assistants, see Remus, Dana and Levy, Frank S., Can Robots Be Lawyers? Computers, Lawyers, and the Practice of Law (December 30, 2015). Available at SSRN: <a class="textlink" href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=2701092" target="_blank">http://ssrn.com/abstract=2701092</a> or <a class="textlink" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2701092" target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2701092</a>. Reported by Aviva Rutkin, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075298-artificial-intelligence-could-make-lawyers-more-risk-averse/">Artificial intelligence could make lawyers more risk averse</a> (New Scientist 27 January 2016).<br /><br />See also Ryan Abbott, <a href="http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3522&amp;context=bclr">I Think, Therefore I Invent: Creative Computers and the Future of Patent Law</a> (Boston College Law Review, Vol 57 Issue 4, September 2016). Reported in Iain Thompson, <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/10/17/ai_computers_to_register_their_own_patents/">AI software should be able to register its own patents, law prof argues</a> (The Register, 17 October 2016)<br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">updated 19 October 2016</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/DmUueTPg0xo" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-5715245527616506692015-10-13T22:17:00.000+01:002017-03-05T11:28:59.839+00:00Defeating the Device ParadigmUntil recently, many people were unfamiliar with the term "defeat device". Following the public disgrace of Volkswagen, it is now believed that a wide range of cars, flat screen TVs and goodness knows what other consumer devices may have been programmed to alter their performance when they detect an official test.<br /><br />There is a fundamental problem with the regulation of embedded software, which can be captured by a maxim from Arthur Weasley (in <i>Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets</i>).<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"Never trust anything that can think for itself if you can't see where it keeps its brain."&nbsp;</blockquote><br />As fans of J.K. Rowling will know, Arthur Weasley is a fictional regulator, working for the Misuse of Muggle Artefacts Office at the Ministry of Magic. (Rowling's portrayal of bureaucrats and regulators often verges on the satirical.) Several writers had cited the Weasley maxim in discussions of the Internet of Things even before the Volkswagen story broke - for example Richard Brooker and Kieron O'Hara. As Brooker asks<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"How do we make an informed assessment of trust and risk when using a device or service, but with little insight or even awareness of the smart, connected actions that it’s performing in the background, and the information it’s sensing from our interaction and where that information is being sent or used?" </blockquote><br />Many people think that regulating the Internet of Things is merely about regulating the devices (the "Things").<br /><br />But this neglects the importance role of background processes and systems. The Things that make up the Internet of Things are connected to a network, which may be run by a commercial organization for its own commercial purposes.<br /><br />Take for example a telemonitoring device in a car, which sends location data to a central controller - perhaps controlled by the car company, or an insurance company, or a contractor working for the prison service. This might be part of a car maintenance scheme or a PayAsYouDrive insurance scheme, or a prisoner release system, or perhaps all of the above, but you can't tell this just from inspecting the monitoring device. You have to look at the central controller (the "Brain"), because this is where the the signals from the device are processed.<br /><br />But how should a regulator approach the challenge of testing and monitoring the central processing unit (the "Brain")? Which (for all we know) may be able to&nbsp;detect whether it is being tested, and repurpose the local devices accordingly.<br /><br />Some writers have argued that Open Source provides the only way to be confident that software is cheat-free. However, two months before the Volkswagen story broke, the US Environment Protection Agency explicitly invoked the Digital Millennium Copyright Act to ban independent experts from testing engine software. As far as I can see, this would prevent the kind of compromise proposed by Kuntal Sampat, which would involve inspecting the interfaces and service calls, as well as full-blown Open Source.<br /><br />The Internet of Things is not a random collection of devices. It is a safety-critical system of systems, and must be understood (and regulated) as such. But it often suits certain commercial interests to focus our attention on the devices and away from the rest of the system. This is related to what Borgmann calls the Device Paradigm.<br /><br /><br /><br /><hr /><br />Ryan Beene, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vw-emissions-defeat-device-isnt-the-first-2015-09-25">VW emissions ‘defeat device’ isn’t the first</a> (MarketWatch 25 Sept 2015) <br /><br />Richard Brooker, <a href="https://letstalk.globalservices.bt.com/en/2014/10/can-we-trust-internet-of-unsecure-things/">Can we trust the Internet of (Unsecure) Things?</a> (BT, 7 October 2014) <br /><br />Alex Davies, <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/09/epa-opposes-rules-couldve-exposed-vws-cheating/">The EPA opposes rules that could've exposed VW's cheating</a> (Wired 18 September 2015)<br /><br />Terry Fagen, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-defeat-software-never-used-medical-devices-terry-fagen">Why Defeat Software Will Never be Used in Medical Devices</a> (Linked-In, 24 September 2015)<br /><br />James Grimmelmann, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/09/volkswagen_s_cheating_emissions_software_and_the_threat_of_black_boxes.html">Harry Potter and the Mysterious Defeat Device</a> (Slate 22 September 2015)<br /><br />Russell Hotten, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34324772">Volkswagen: The scandal explained</a> (BBC News 25 September 2015) <br /><br />Leo Kelion, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34338646">VW: Calls to let car software be examined by experts</a> (BBC News 23 September 2015) <br /><br />Arthur Neslen, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/01/samsung-tvs-appear-more-energy-efficient-in-tests-than-in-real-life">Samsung TVs appear less energy efficient in real life than in tests</a> (Guardian 1 October 2015)<br /><br />Kieron O’Hara, <a href="http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/371686/1/IC-18-06-Digital.pdf">The Fridge’s Brain Sure Ain’t the Icebox</a> (IEEE Internet Computing, Nov/Dec 2014) <br /><br />Kuntal Sampat, <a href="http://ks-dsp.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/defeat-device-and-open-source.html">Defeat Device and Open Source</a> (Blogspot 23 September 2015)<br /><br />Kit Walsh, <a href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2015/09/researchers-could-have-uncovered-volkswagens-emissions-cheat-if-not-hindered-dmca">Researchers Could Have Uncovered Volkswagen’s Emissions Cheat If Not Hindered by the DMCA</a> (Electronic Frontier Foundation, 21 September 2015) <br /><br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21556098">When Code can Kill or Cure</a> (Economist 2 June 2012)<br /><br />Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defeat_device">Defeat Device</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Device_paradigm">Device Paradigm</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-critical_system">Life-Critical System</a><br /><br /><hr />Related Posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/understanding-value-chain-of-internet.html">Understanding the Value Chain of the Internet of Things</a> (June 2015) <br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.com/2017/03/ubers-defeat-device-and-denial-of.html">Uber's Defeat Device and Denial of Service</a> (March 2017)<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/SJ4Prm7jRWw" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-62828105426007777682015-08-21T07:40:00.000+01:002015-08-21T07:40:00.118+01:00Technology Hype Curve 4@<a href="https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/633909746278531072">dgwbirch</a> applies the Gartner Hype Curve (it's not a cycle) to itself. <br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><div dir="ltr" lang="en">Gartner’s Hype Cycle is in the trough of disillusionment and I can’t see any productivity on the horizon <a href="https://t.co/uSAX7G5ZSO">https://t.co/uSAX7G5ZSO</a></div>— Dave Birch (@dgwbirch) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/633909746278531072">August 19, 2015</a></blockquote><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br /><br />Obviously I don't speak for Gartner, but I imagine they might be puzzled at Dave's extension of the notion of technology to something that is essentially a conceptual tool. So where are the limits of the tool, and is Dave just being mischievous?<br /><br />In any case, perhaps different stakeholders are at different stages of the curve. Gartner itself has always been in the Slope of Enlightenment, deploying the Hype Curve for an ever-increasing number of instances of how the tool can benefit Gartner and its clients.<br /><br />Meanwhile, if some people have become disillusioned with the Hype Curve, as Dave claims, there will always be a new generation of CIOs with inflated expectations. So that's alright then.<br /><br /><hr />See previous posts<br /><br /><a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2005/09/technology-hype-curve.html">Technology Hype Curve 1</a> (September 2005)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2009/07/technology-hype-curve-2.html">Technology Hype Curve 2</a> (July 2009)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2009/08/technology-hype-curve-3.html">Technology Hype Curve 3</a> (August 2009)<br />Category: <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/hype">Hype</a> <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/khGqiBg5VZ8" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-24869148984040919922015-06-24T23:35:00.001+01:002016-08-23T23:05:18.404+01:00Understanding the Value Chain of the Internet of Things#<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/internetofthings">InternetOfThings</a> Unfortunately, I shall be unable to use my ticket for the Unicom conference in London next week. (Any reasonable offer considered.) So here are some thoughts in absentia.<br /><br /><br />Many of the popular examples of IoT suggest a fairly conventional data collection and monitoring process, in which internet-enabled "things" send signals to a central point, from where an intelligent response can be mobilized. <br /><br />For example, a car manufacturer installs devices to monitor car performance. Or a warehouse installs temperature monitoring and control devices into every fridge. Or a healthcare provider implants a device to monitor's the patient's blood sugar. <br /><br />In some cases, the devices may be programmed to perform certain actions automatically - for example, to adjust the fuel mix or temperature, or administer a dose of insulin - but these actions are ultimately the responsibility of the provider of the device. <br /><br />Who is the "owner" of this device? Although the driver or the patient may have paid for the device and will want some benefit in return, the device is also serving the purpose of the organization that provided it, which should have a clear business case and cost justification to cover all the direct and indirect costs incurred. <br /><br />Some marketing experts are seeing the Internet of Things as a way of reasserting control over the consumer. J Walker Smith talks enthusiastically about what he calls the Pivot to Passive. <br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"The pivot to passive automates activities that consumers used to do themselves, from monitoring, to researching, to reporting, to deciding. The fundamental nature of this pivot is a shift from screens to sensors. Consumers are better able to tailor their experiences, but they do so through less, not more control, relinquishing influence and authority to technologies. In turn, these are the very same technologies with which marketers are regaining control in the marketplace." </blockquote><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">J Walker Smith, <a href="http://thefuturescompany.com/free-thinking/the-pivot-to-passive/">The Pivot to Passive</a> (<a href="http://tfccontent.com/Freethinking/The_Pivot_to_Passive.pdf">pdf</a>) (Market Leader Q3, June 2014)&nbsp; </span></div><br /><br />More complex situations may introduce greater multi-sidedness. For example, the monitoring devices in the car may also be sending signals to an insurance company, as part of a <a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2006/10/pay-as-you-drive.htm">Pay-As-You-Drive</a> policy. <br /><br />Here's the challenge. In a multi-sided situation, the business case may only turn positive when you aggregate the benefits across multiple purposes. So the innovation requires a new business model to orchestrate the costs and benefits (and risks) between all the stakeholders. A new business model introduces changes to the value network, and typically involves the creation of some kind of commercial platform.<br /><br />Many of the most interesting innovations of recent years have been characterized by radical disruption to the value network. If the Internet of Things proves to be as disruptive as many people expect, I expect it to be the network where the most fundamental disruption will take place.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"In our time, things are not even regarded as objects, because their only important quality has become their readiness for use. Today all things are being swept together into a vast network in which their only meaning lies in their being available to serve some end that will itself also be directed towards getting everything under control."&nbsp;</blockquote><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Heidegger, The Question Concerning Technology </span></div><br /><br /><hr /><a href="http://conferences.unicom.co.uk/internet-of-things-london2015/">Understanding the Value Chain of the Internet of Things</a> was at the London Kensington Hilton on 2<span style="font-size: x-small;">nd</span> July 2015. <br /><br /><br />Related Posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/defeating-device-paradigm.html">Defeating the Device Paradigm</a> (Oct 2015) <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/4CE26A2L05k" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-34725856238611242942015-05-25T00:16:00.000+01:002015-05-25T08:33:39.584+01:00Calculating the Potential of Cloud ComputingA recent Bain and Company report claims a number of insights about the move to cloud computing<br /><ul><li>Enterprises are realizing only 35% of the value from their workloads already in the cloud.&nbsp;</li><li>Leading enterprise cloud adopters have migrated nearly two-thirds of their workloads to the cloud, yet the average company has only 18% there.&nbsp;</li><li>Up to 50% of the value of cloud investments is predicated on streamlining and improving company operations.</li></ul><br />How do they calculate that, asks IanCohen (@<a href="https://twitter.com/coe62/status/594429274389610496">coe62</a>)<br /><br />The Bain report asserts some analysis and shows some graphs, but doesn't explain its calculation. The evidence cited comes from a survey of future intentions, together with a couple of IDC reports on the benefits achieved by an unstated (presumably very small) number of companies from some very specific technological changes (implementing Salesforce, replacing AWS). This doesn't appear to be a vast amount of relevant historical data.<br /><br />Elsewhere, a 2011 survey for the European Commission estimated that, as a result of the adoption of cloud computing, 80% of organisations reduce costs by 10-20%. A similar figure is quoted in a KPMG paper published in 2014. <br /><br />Calculating the potential of cloud computing presumably means projecting forwards from historical data (how much has already been achieved) to estimating the future opportunity (how much remains to be achieved). This kind of calculation typically makes a number of simplifying assumptions.<br /><ul><li>For example, when a typical organization has moved 20% of its workflow to the cloud, it has realised 20% of the potential benefits.&nbsp;</li><li>Furthermore, the 20% of organizations that have moved 20% of workflow to the cloud are assumed to be similar to those that haven't.</li></ul>Based on these assumptions, we could estimate the remaining benefits for the remaining organizations by simple multiplication. <br /><br />However, both of these assumptions are implausible. Obviously the projects that are carried out are not selected at random, but are precisely the ones that have the highest payoff and the highest confidence level, so we shouldn't expect all potential projects to have the same payoff as the actual projects.&nbsp; <br /><br />More importantly, the people making the technology adoption decisions don't have this expectation. Nor are they likely to be persuaded by a graph, however beautifully drawn. However, if they want to adopt Cloud Computing for other (strategic) reasons, a few white papers like this may provide some intellectual cover.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the European Commission sees Cloud Computing as a way of both reducing ICT costs and increasing ICT jobs. I don't see how companies are supposed to employ more people without increasing costs, but then I'm not a politician.<br /><br /><br /><hr />Syed Ali, Steve Berez, Paul Callahan and Vishy Padmanabhan,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/tapping-clouds-full-potential.aspx">Tapping Cloud’s Full Potential</a>. (Bain and Company, 2015) A downloadable version of the study is <a href="http://www.bain.com/Images/BAIN_BRIEF_Tapping_cloud%27s_full_potential.pdf">available here</a> (8 pp, free no opt-in).<br /><br />Jeff Atwood, <a href="http://blog.codinghorror.com/hardware-is-cheap-programmers-are-expensive/">Hardware is Cheap, Programmers are Expensive</a> (December 2008)<br /><br />Louis Columbus, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2015/05/01/tapping-cloud-computings-full-potential/">Tapping Cloud Computing's Full&nbsp;Potential</a> (Forbes, May 2015)<br /><br />European Commission, <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2012:0529:FIN:EN:PDF" target="_blank">Unleashing the Potential of Cloud Computing in Europe</a> (September 2012). See also <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/european-cloud-computing-strategy">European Cloud Computing Strategy</a>.<br /><br />KPMG, <a href="http://www.kpmg-institutes.com/content/dam/kpmg/advisory-institute/pdf/2014/cloud-economics.pdf">Cloud Economics: Making the Business Case for Cloud</a> (2014) <br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 25 May 2015</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/wr359rffzkE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-64142623019748859312014-12-10T08:05:00.003+00:002016-10-25T22:51:20.184+01:00Have you got big data in your underwear?Apparently, women's breasts aren't all the same. (Who knew?) True+Co. uses an algorithm based on customer feedback to recommend comfortable and flattering bras for its customers. A visitor to the website completes a questionnaire, and the website recommends some suitable bras. If the customer orders the bra, she then completes another questionnaire providing feedback on comfort and appearance. To date, over a million women have completed the questionnaire, providing 15 million data points.<br /><br />@<a href="https://twitter.com/tetradian/status/510873284851015682">tetradian</a> reckoned this is a great example of #bizmodel #bigdata for mass-uniqueness. But I didn't see this example the same way: I don't see anything here that turns Mass Customization into what Tom likes to call Mass Uniqueness.<br /><br />Tom's favourite example of "mass uniqueness" is Picasso. I bet the algorithm couldn't find a bra for the breasts of <a href="http://wtfarthistory.com/post/33229596129/breasts-of-picassos-demoiselles">Picasso's Demoiselles</a> (NSFW).<br /><div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">Breasts of Picasso’s Demoiselle (NSFW)…</div><br />A single questionnaire, even from a million women, doesn't get into the big data league. Maybe it would when they start analysing pictures and videos of customer breasts, rather than relying on a simple questionnaire.<br /><br />Or if the company were to fit sensors to its underwear, monitoring stretch during a range of activities, collecting millions of data points every minute via the Internet of Things.<br /><br />Do you think I'm joking? Microsoft is working on a Smart Bra, which will monitor the mood of the wearer and detect stress. The Daily Mail suggests that this will help women to lose weight.<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-size: x-small;">"To stop women reaching for the cookie jar when things hit a low, Microsoft's new prototype bra predicts when the wearer is likely to comfort eat and warns against it. The software company's high-tech undergarment features sensors in the cup pockets and side panels that detect changes in heart rate, skin temperature and stress levels - apparent precursors to overeating. All of the data is then streamed via Bluetooth to a smartphone app providing real-time 'mood-triggered eating' alerts." </span></blockquote><br />Now that's what I call big data. Scary, huh?<br /><br /><br /><hr /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/goodjillian">Jillian Goodman</a>, <a href="http://www.fastcodesign.com/3035228/innovation-by-design-2014/cup-size-isnt-everything">Cup Size Isn’t Everything</a> (Fast Company, October 2014)<br /><br />Tom Graves, <a href="http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/05/23/on-mass-uniqueness/">On Mass Uniqueness</a> (23 May 2014)<br /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/aprjoy">April Joyner</a>, <a href="http://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/where-big-data-fashion-meet/33190.article">Big Data: Coming Soon to Your Bra?</a> (Fast Forward, 6 September 2014)<br /><br />Hayley Krischer, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2015/jun/04/bra-size-fitter-bloomingdales-town-shop">The underappreciated artistry of the professional bra fitter</a> (Guardian 4 June 2015)<br /><br />Sadie Whitelocks, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2515062/Microsofts-prototype-bra-designed-stop-women-comfort-eating.html">Supporting your body in more ways than one! The high-tech bra designed to stop women from comfort eating</a> (Daily Mail, 28 November 2013)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25197917">Microsoft working on a smart bra to measure mood</a> (BBC News, 3 December 2013)<br /><br /><br />See also <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/towards-internet-of-underthings.html">Towards the Internet of Underthings</a> (November 2015), <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/weaving-in-three-dimensions.html">Weaving in three dimensions</a> (November 2015)<br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 15 November 2015</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/9hyd69Ak0j0" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-29147147087895658312014-11-27T22:53:00.002+00:002016-10-25T22:51:20.096+01:00Misunderstanding CRM and Big DataListening to @peter_w_ryan, @markhillary and Alexey Minkevich talking about #CRM and #BigData at the Institute of Directors, sponsored by <a href="http://blog.ibagroupit.com/?p=1090">IBA Group</a>.<br /><br />Peter cites an Ovum survey showing that Customer Satisfaction is now the number one concern of management, and argues for what Ovum calls Intelligent CRM. (CA announced something under this label back in October 2000. Other products are available.)<br /><br />Mark says that CRM and Big Data are widely misunderstood, which is certainly true. My own opinion is the first misunderstanding is to think CRM is about managing THE relationship with THE customer, and I completely agree with Clayton Christensen (via Sloan) that this isn't enough. What we really need to focus on is the job the customers are trying to get done when they use your product or service. <br /><br />Who is good at CRM? Peter cites an example of a professor of marketing who got a personalized service at a certain chain of hotels and has been talking about it ever since. (That's a pretty good coup for the hotel, if we take the story at face value.) Mark cites the video game market, where both the console manufacturers and the large game publishers are able to collect and analyse huge quantities of consumer behaviour.<br /><br />Is CRM with Big Data merely a new way of taking advantage of customers? Although most people seem oblivious to the privacy and trust risks, the Wall Street Journal this week suggested that the consumer is becoming more savvy and less susceptible to exploitative loyalty schemes and promotions. This might help to explain why Tesco, once a master of the science of retail, now seems to be faltering.<br /><br />If there is a sustainable business model based on CRM and Big Data, it must surely involve using these technologies to engage intelligently, authentically and ethically with customers, rather than imagining that these technologies can provide a quick fix for stupid organizations to take advantage of compliant customers.<br /><br /><br /><hr /><b>Related Blogs</b><br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/customer-orientation.html">Customer Orientation</a> (May 2009)<br /><br /><a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/science-of-retail.html">The Science of Retail</a> (April 2012) <br /><br /><b>Other Articles</b><br /><br />Martha Mangelsdorf, <a href="http://sloanreview.mit.edu/improvisations/2009/05/07/understanding-your-customer-isnt-enough/">Understanding your customer isn't enough</a> (Sloan Review May 2009) <br /><br />Shelly Banjo and Sara Germano, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-end-of-the-impulse-shopper-1416872108">The End of the Impulse Shopper</a> (Wall Street Journal 25 November 2014)<br /><br /><b>Intelligent CRM</b><br /><br /><a href="http://ai-crm.sourceforge.net/">AI-CRM</a> "An intelligent CRM system with atuo-learning-tunning engine (sic), Aichain offers the most widely used open source business intelligence software in the world." Last updated March 2013<br /><br /><a href="http://www.computerworld.com/article/2589117/crm/ca-rolling-out-customer-relationship-management-software.html">CA rolling out customer relationship management software</a> (ComputerWorld October 2000)<br /><br /><a href="http://ibagroupit.com/en/about/">IBA Group</a> "maintains its focus on IT outsourcing that has become a strategy for many organizations seeking to improve their business processes"<br /><br /><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/sHQxSgrpJuQ" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-7410197585311455712014-11-05T15:40:00.000+00:002014-11-05T15:40:04.875+00:00Inside the WhaleThe ethics of "pay-to-play" are being explored in the video games market. Some "free" games are funded by optional in-game purchases, such as extra weapons. There are several problems with this. Firstly, the availability of ever-more-powerful weapons might distort the game. Obviously a wealthy player could beat any chess grandmaster in the world, if the game of chess allowed you to buy an extra queen from time to time. In which case, what is the point of playing at all?<br /><br />Secondly, a small minority of players are funding everyone else. In the video game world, these are known as whales. Video games often come out in multiple (overlapping) editions, and some whales can be persuaded to buy every edition. So the game developers and the majority of the players are exploiting the whales. That's fine if they can afford it, but some of the whales may be tempted to spend more than they can afford.<br /><br /><br />Some software vendors have accused industry analysts of operating a "pay-to-play" system, which allegedly favours those vendors who are willing to buy into the latest jargon (hype). And some analyst firms have a tendency to fragment any given technological marketplace into subdivisions in order to sell more "editions" of expensive reports, and to provide more differentiated opportunities for vendors to earn (or allegedly purchase) a good rating.<br /><br />So if one were to produce a 2x2 matrix based on Commercial Ambition and Willingness to Invest, then the top right quadrant could be called Whales.<br /><br /><hr /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">"If you're not familiar with how the analyst industry works, here's a very short summary. Companies brief analysts on their plans, the state of their businesses and the products they are bringing to market. Some companies pay the analyst firms to have a two-way conversation and get advice from the analysts. Then the analysts write up information-rich reports about some important business trend or another, based on all the briefings they've done. They sell those reports for hundreds or thousands of dollars to consumers wanting to benefit from all the research performed by the analysts." (Source <a href="http://readwrite.com/2009/08/21/why_jeremiah_owyang_is_leaving_forrester_research">ReadWrite Web August 2009</a>)</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.influencerrelations.com/2437/is-there-a-pay-to-play-problem-in-the-analyst-industry">Is there a pay to play problem in the analyst industry?</a>, <a href="http://www.influencerrelations.com/2487/you-told-us-which-analyst-firms-were-most-and-least-independent">You told us which analyst firms were most, and least, independent</a> (Influencer Relations, February 2014) <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/zWA4GI_mrqs" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-76660287293565937902014-05-13T09:54:00.000+01:002014-05-23T22:19:27.183+01:00What shape is the internet (continued)?@ironick and I have been arguing about the shape of the internet since my <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.com/2010/09/what-shape-is-internet.html">September 2010</a> post on this subject. Over the past few days, we have returned to this topic on Twitter. Nick has captured the latest tweets in his Storify piece <a href="https://storify.com/ironick/the-shape-of-the-web-database-wars-redux">The Shape of the Web - Database Wars Redux</a>.<br /><br />The argument was triggered by @djbressler's observation that some new browsers (including an experimental build of Chrome) were hiding the URL from the user. This is a reflection of the fact that users increasingly type "Amazon" into the browser rather than "amazon.com" let alone "http://www.amazon.com". Presumably, hiding the URL will further encourage this trend.<br /><br />Google and other search engines appear to benefit from this in two ways. Firstly, it increases the already heavy dependence of the ordinary internet user on the search engine. And secondly, every time an internet user navigates via search rather than via URL or hyperlink, the search engine gets another opportunity to present some advertising, as well as collecting more information about that user.<br /><br />Obviously, Google itself depends on URLs and hyperlinks. As Nick points out, Google still relies on links to construct its index, and still uses a version of the original PageRank algorithm to influence what you see when you search for a given term. But indexing and search ranking are only loosely coupled to one another. <br /><br />And nowadays, the search order is not solely determined by PageRank. Instead, the search order is increasingly influenced by browsing behaviour - of others as well as our own. If you ignore the first two items, click briefly on the third item, and then immediately return to Google to look at the fourth item, Google may conclude that the first three items weren't very relevant to you. In other words, this counts as a "vote" against those items.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Google only had exclusive rights to the original PageRank patent (which belongs to Stanford University) until 2011. <br /><br />Obviously Google is not completely open about these algorithms, because it is perpetually at war with SEO and spammers who want to get some commercial advantage by "gaming" the system. So there is a degree of speculation involved in working out what exactly Google is up to. Sometimes Google merely seems to appeal to the lowest common denominator, as David Auerbach suggests in his review of Metafilter search results ("<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/bitwise/2014/05/metafilter_layoffs_why_has_google_forsaken_the_legendary_internet_forum.html">Deranked</a>"). However, it is beyond speculation that Google's behaviour has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, and that what we see is increasingly "personalized". <br /><br />Nick accuses me of "confusing the use of behavior IN the ranking algorithm itself with using behavior to verify the quality of the algorithm". However, there is some evidence that Google initially trials new factors in parallel with the existing algorithm, before integrating these factors into the algorithm itself. (See for example, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Panda" title="Wikipedia: Google Panda (retrieved 13 May 2014)">Google Panda</a>.) In any case, the total behaviour of Google can be thought of in terms of the collective intelligence of human brains AND algorithmic software, and it may not be possible for outsider observers to be exactly sure where the boundary lies at any point in time. (We can detect "momentum", but not "position".)<br /><br />Obviously URLs are not going to disappear entirely. For my part, I have always made an effort to use links and bookmarks rather than pander to the commercial interests and cognitive distortion of search engines. I don't think this undermines my general point - that the Internet-in-use (based on majority habits) is taking on a different shape. Obviously it is still possible to use the Internet in a disciplined and self-conscious manner, which Nick (always) and I (sometimes) practise, but the fact that this requires effort and intelligence makes it likely that it will never become mainstream.<br /><br />In the long-term, Google may face a paradox. If people stop using URLs, then Google's ability to index and rank pages across the internet might possibly be compromised. But I'm sure that the clever people at Google have thought of this paradox, and already have a cunning plan.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the internet (as experienced by ordinary users) is gradually becoming less web-shaped and more star-shaped, with your favourite search engine or social network at the centre. (Please note the word "gradually".) <br /><br /><hr />Sources<br /><br />David Auerbach, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/bitwise/2014/05/metafilter_layoffs_why_has_google_forsaken_the_legendary_internet_forum.html">Deranked - Why has Google forsaken MetaFilter?</a> (Slate May 2014)<br />Bill Slawski, <a href="http://www.seobythesea.com/2012/03/new-pagerank-same-as-old-pagerank/">The New PageRank, Same as the Old PageRank?</a> (March 2012)<br />Daniel Sour, <a href="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n19/daniel-soar/it-knows">It Knows</a> (LRB October 2011)<br /><br /><br />Related posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2010/09/what-shape-is-internet.html">What shape is the internet</a> (September 2010)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/what-shape-is-your-intranet.html">What shape is your intranet</a> (May 2014)<br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated&nbsp; 17 May 2014</span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/EKJfGBXNuHw" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-31541659623693738012014-05-13T00:20:00.002+01:002014-11-05T22:54:42.287+00:00Bring Your Own ExpectationsOnce upon a time, there was a clear separation between Work and Home. This separation has been undermined by two phenomena.<br /><br />1. Working at Home - in other words, allowing work to invade the home environment<br />2. Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) - in other words, allowing personal devices to invade the work environment<br /><br />In this post, I want to talk about a third phenomenon, perhaps more invisible but no less important. Bring Your Own Expectations means that we have all become accustomed to getting what we want from the Internet, and therefore expect to get the same things (or "affordances") from corporate systems and platforms.<br /><br />One of the most obvious gaps between our expectations and corporate reality is the failure of search. The Internet has an uncanny knack of guessing what we want, and there are strong commercial incentives for Amazon, Facebook, Google and the rest to improve their "mind-reading" capabilities.<br /><br />In comparison, your company intranet is simply not in the same league, and therefore cannot anticipate your needs in the same way. Some people see this as merely a technical lack, to be addressed by some functionality inside the company firewall that roughly resembles the way Google worked ten years ago. But this is far more than a mere technical shortcoming.<br /><br />And search is just one difference. There are also expectations about interoperability. For example, do we expect to use one network for linking with colleagues and customers, and a different network for linking with friends and family? Most people are still learning how to manage these different worlds without getting muddled - for example, people who automatically put kisses onto private messages may find themselves carrying this habit into corporate communications. Maybe sometimes our expectations lead us astray.<br /><br />Some service providers (including notoriously Facebook) insist that you have a single identity for personal and business use. Other service providers accept that people may wish to have two or more accounts, in order to keep personal and business use separate, and are happy to design premium services largely for the business user. A good example of this is DropBox for Business, which allows multiple accounts (e.g. a business account and a personal account) to be synchronized to the same computer. However, people will still expect to have at least as much affordance in the business sphere as in the personal sphere, and will be unhappy if their employer provides (for example) corporate file-sharing services that are not as good as (say) DropBox. (Other file sharing services are available.)<br /><br /><hr />Related Posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/byod-bring-your-own-device.html">BYOD Bring Your Own Device</a> (Feb 2012)<br /><a href="http://businessorganizationmanagement.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/on-working-at-home.html">On Working At Home</a> (March 2014)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/what-shape-is-your-intranet.html">What Shape is Your Intranet</a> (May 2014)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 5 November 2014</span> <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/ARIxhUcvSxY" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-8722393141716612572014-05-10T09:15:00.000+01:002014-05-13T09:54:54.658+01:00What shape is your Intranet?@<a href="https://twitter.com/djbressler/status/464534527034290177">djbressler</a> tells us he is work­ing on a&nbsp;thought-piece about the bifur­ca­tion of the intranets&nbsp;from the Inter­net. In the meantime, in a post called <a href="http://davidbressler.com/2014/05/08/burying-the-url/">Burying the URL</a> (May 2014), he comments on an experimental build of Chrome, which continues the trend of hiding the URL and encouraging people to use search instead. Obviously it benefits Google when people rely exclusively on search. But it's not just Google's Chrome that is doing this; Firefox and Mobile Safari are also going in this direction. <br /><br />In my post <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2010/09/what-shape-is-internet.html">What shape is the internet</a> (September 2010), I said that shifting the emphasis from URL hotlinks to search undermines the idea of the internet's being web-shaped. This point is also made in a post by @<a href="https://twitter.com/apike/status/461684729658740737">apike</a>, referenced by David and also called <a href="http://www.allenpike.com/2014/burying-the-url/">Burying the URL</a> (April 2014). <br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>URLs are the essence. They make hypertext hyper. The term “web” is no accident – it refers to this explicitly.</i></blockquote>See also an excellent Twitter debate following @<a href="https://twitter.com/apike/status/461684729658740737">apike</a>'s tweet.<br /><br /><br />When David talks about bifurcation, he means that "enter­prise <span class="caps">IT</span> is diverg­ing enter­prise tech­nol­ogy from con­sumer tech­nol­ogy in a&nbsp;way that’s&nbsp;cre­at­ing two irrec­on­cil­able branches of tech­nol­ogy". He observes that most company intranets have a pretty lousy search facility.<br /><br />But most company intranets have pretty lousy cross-linking as well. They are mostly just pdf graveyards stuffed with documents of indeterminate pedigree, which people are often reluctant to waste time searching (even if the search facility were better) because they don't expect to find anything of value.<br /><br />Actually, you can't always find what you are looking for on the Internet either, and that has a lot to do with the limitations of search, but there are enough amusing distractions to conceal this fact. Surely we don't want our company intranets to copy the internet too closely?<br /><br />And remember that the data revealing Enron's problems were cheerfully displayed on the Enron website. But nobody important had bothered to look at these documents properly. (Actually, a bunch of students had analysed them years previously and concluded that Enron was bankrupt. They probably got low marks for that assignment!)<br /><br />There is an increasingly common belief that the tech­nol­ogy used inside com­pa­nies should work the same way as outside, should provide the same "affordance". This is not <i><b>Bring Your Own Device</b></i> but <b><i>Bring Your Own <strike>Paradigm</strike> Expectations</i></b>. I guess I should work on a thought piece about this.<br /><br /><hr />Related posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2010/09/what-shape-is-internet.html">What shape is the internet</a> (September 2010)<br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/bring-your-own-expectations.html">Bring Your Own Expectations</a> (May 2014) <br /><br />See also Steven Poole, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/09/pdf-graveyards-never-downloaded-world-wide-web">The pdf graveyards can only expect an increase in their undead populations</a> (Guardian 9 May 2014) <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/UOK0zKzb-s8" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-88657744533252071092014-04-26T11:13:00.001+01:002016-10-25T22:51:20.204+01:00Does Big Data Release Information Energy?@<a href="https://twitter.com/michael_saylor">michael_saylor</a> of #MicroStrategy says that the Information Revolution is about harnessing "information energy" (<a href="http://www2.microstrategy.com/the-mobile-wave/">The Mobile Wave</a>, p 221). He describes information as a kind of fuel that generates "decision motion", driving people - and machines - to make a decision and take a course of action.<br /><br />We already know that putting twice as much fuel into a vehicle doesn't make it twice as fast or twice as reliable. (Indeed, aeroplanes sometimes dump fuel to enable a safer landing.) But Saylor explains that information energy is not the same as physical energy.<br /><br />1. Information energy doesn't follow conservation laws. Information can be created, consumed repeatedly, but never depleted or destroyed. (Unless it is lost or forgotten.)<br /><br />2. Whereas physical energy is additive, the energy content of information is exponential.<br /><br />3. The value of information depends on its use, and who is using it.<br /><br /><br />Let's look at his example.<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"Total wheat production for a single year is valuable information; but total wheat production for ten years, combined ten years of rainfall data and ten years of fertilizer represents thirty times more data droplets, but probably contains one hundred times more information energy, because it shows trends and correlations that will drive a greater number of decisions." (pp 221-2).</blockquote><br />In other words, thirty times as much data produces a hundred times more information. He doesn't say this extra information MAY drive more decisions, he says it WILL drive more decisions. In other words, the Information Revolution (and our increasing reliance on tools such as MicroStrategy's products) is a historical inevitability.<br /><br />But is it really true that more data produces more information in this exponential way? In practice, there is a depreciation effect for historical or remote data, because an accumulation of small changes in working practices and technologies can make direct comparison misleading or impossible. So even if the farmer had twenty years' worth of data, or shared data from thousands of other farmers, it would not necessarily help her to make better decisions. Five years' data might be almost as good as ten years'.<br /><br />Data is moving faster than ever before; we're also storing and processing more and more of it. But that doesn't mean we're just hoarding data, says Duncan Ross, director of data sciences at Teradata, "The pace of change of markets generally is so rapid that it doesn't make sense to retain information for more than a few years." (<a href="https://twitter.com/charlesarthur">Charles Arthur<span id="goog_1280358731"></span></a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/aug/23/tech-giants-data">Tech giants may be huge, but nothing matches big data</a>, Guardian 23 August 2013)<br /><br />According to Saylor, the key to releasing information energy is mobile technology.<br /><br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">"The shocking thing about information is not how much there is, but how inaccessible it is despite the immense value it represents. ... Mobile computing puts information energy in hands of individuals during all waking hours and everywhere they are." (p 224)</blockquote><br />What kind of decisions does Saylor imagine the farmer needs to make while sitting on a tractor or milking the cows? Obvious it would be useful to get an early warning of some emerging problem - for example an outbreak of disease further down the valley, or possible contamination of a batch of feed or fertilizer at the factory. But complex information needs interpretation, and most decisions require serious reflection, not instant reaction.<br /><br />So it is not clear that providing instant access to large quantities of information is going to improve the quality of decision-making. And giving people twice as much information often leads to further procrastination. Surely the challenge for MicroStrategy is to help people deal with information overload, not just add to it?<br /><br />Furthermore, as I said in my post <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/tablets-and-hyperactivity.html">Tablets and Hyperactivity</a> (Feb 2013), being "always on" means that you never have long enough to think through something difficult before you are interrupted by another event. There is always another email to attend to, there is always something happening on Twitter or Facebook, and mobile devices encourage and reinforce this kind of hyperactivity.<br /><br />Saylor concludes that "the acid of technology etches away the unnecessary" (p 237). If only this were true.<br /><br /><hr />Related posts<br /><br /><a href="http://rvsoapbox.blogspot.co.uk/2005/09/service-oriented-business-intelligence_22.htm">Service-Oriented Business Intelligence</a> (September 2005) <br /><a href="http://demandingchange.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/on-true-nature-of-knowledge.html">On The True Nature of Knowledge</a> (April 2014)<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Updated 19 June 2014 </span><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/6q7F3LPdqqg" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-91973349655637266602014-04-24T00:42:00.000+01:002016-10-25T22:51:20.217+01:00Predictive Analytics for the Smart Consumer?<span style="font-size: xx-small;">#CW500 </span>If merchants can use predictive analytics to get more out of the customer, why can't the customer use predictive analytics to get more out of the merchant?<br /><br />In December 2012, I reported on a subscription-based service from <a href="http://decide.com/">decide.com</a>, which predicted future retail price changes (based on retailers' past behaviour) and encouraged its members to use these predictions to optimize the timing of key purchases.<br /><br />Many retailers have fairly regular patterns of seasonal price changes and promotions, which are designed to maximize the lifetime profitability of a product. This is particularly important for fashion goods and high-tech, which tend to have a high initial price and a low clearance price. However, if customers (with the help of advisory services such as decide.com) start to game these price changes, then profit optimization becomes a lot harder to calculate. So this kind of advisory service represents a significant threat to retail profitability.<br /><br />In September 2013, decide.com was acquired by eBay and effectively closed down. “This is an exciting opportunity to bring Decide’s expertise in data and predictive analytics to the worldwide commerce leader and empower over 25 million eBay sellers,” said Mike Fridgen, CEO of Decide.com. “We believe teaming up with eBay allows us to realize our mission of leveling the playing field in commerce.” (<a href="http://blog.ebay.com/ebay-inc-acquires-price-research-firm-decide-com/">eBay 6 September 2013</a>, <a href="http://www.geekwire.com/2013/ebay-acquires-decidecom-shopping-research-site-shut-sept-30/">Geekwire 6 September 2013</a>)<br /><br />In other words, taking the advantage away from the customers and giving it back to the sellers.<br /><br />However, other customer-side predictive services may be still available, including <a href="http://gaspredictor.com/">GasPredictor.com</a> (for Gasoline) and <a href="http://www.kayak.com/">Kayak</a> (for air travel).<br /><hr /><br /><a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/predictive-showrooming.html">Predictive Showrooming Dec 2012</a><br /><br />Tricia Duryee, <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120419/decide-com-says-it-will-accurately-predict-prices-or-your-money-back/">Decide.com Says It Will Accurately Predict Prices or Your Money Back</a> (All Things D, 19 April 2012)<br /><br />Thorin Klosowski, <a href="http://lifehacker.com/5976095/kayak-adds-price-forecasting-to-predict-price-drops-and-increases">Kayak Adds Price Forecasting to Predict Price Drops and Increases</a> (Lifehacker, 15 Jan 2013) <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/YCldciz7GFo" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-36011300969146549742014-02-06T11:10:00.000+00:002014-02-20T13:38:47.088+00:00What's the Most Important Task for Microsoft's New CEO?<i>"Bill Gates’s first day at work in the newly created role of technology adviser got off to a rocky start yesterday as the Microsoft founder struggled for hours to install the Windows 8.1 upgrade"</i> (<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/02/gates-spends-entire-first-day-back-in-office-trying-to-install-windows-81.html">New Yorker, 5 February 2014</a>).<br /><br />Lots of people have expressed amusement or sympathy about this. But the twist comes later in the story.<br /><br /><i>"After failing to install the upgrade by lunchtime, Mr. Gates summoned the new Microsoft C.E.O. Satya Nadella, who attempted to help him with the installation, but with no success."</i><br /><br />What is really going on here? Has Nadella nothing better to do? One wonders whether Gates really didn't know how to install the software or whom to call, or whether he was just making a point about who was really the boss.<br /><br />When someone as clever as Gates asks a stupid question, it may not be a stupid question at all. See my post <a href="http://rvsoftware.blogspot.co.uk/2010/04/whats-difference-between-judges-and.html">On the Difference between Judges and Geeks</a>.<br /><br /><i>A Microsoft spokesman said that Mr. Gates’s first day in his new job had been “a learning experience.” </i>Yes, but for whom?<br /><br />As they say in Italy, <a href="http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/se_non_%C3%A8_vero,_%C3%A8_ben_trovato"><i>se non è vero, è molto ben trovato</i></a>.<br /> <div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/zWEr81sPw8k" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttps://plus.google.com/107891026040206160712noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7415430.post-79836378487322306182013-10-09T19:15:00.000+01:002013-10-09T19:25:50.353+01:00Does this chart prove the tech industry's lack of diversity?Twitter's forthcoming IPO has drawn critical attention to its male-dominated board. Vivek Wadhwa, a fellow at Stanford’s Rock Center for Corporate Governance, recently complained about the lack of women in Twitter’s top ranks. Twitter CEO Dick Costolo responded in childish fashion, tweeting that “Vivek Wadhwa is the Carrot Top of academic sources” and that Wadhwa had a “propensity for silly hyperbole”.<br /><br />Source: <a href="http://nypost.com/2013/10/07/twitter-ceo-hits-back-at-gender-bias-rap/">Twitter CEO hits back at gender bias rap</a> (New York Post, 7 October 2013) <br /><br /><br />Clearly, Twitter is not an isolated case: many commentators have pointed out that this is a more general problem. For example, ValleyWag prints a chart of the corporate boards of the top 17 tech companies, created by Gawker's @<a href="http://twitter.com/jimcookeIII">JimCookeIII</a> and @<a href="http://twitter.com/nitashatiku/status/387670294740996097">NitashaTiku</a>, <a data-id="" href="http://valleywag.gawker.com/the-boards-are-all-white-charting-diversity-among-tech-1442532538">The Boards Are All White: Charting Diversity Among Tech Directors</a> via @<a href="http://twitter.com/HuffPostTech/status/387985072848404480">HuffPostTech</a><br /><br />But hold on. These are not the top 17 tech companies in the world. They are not even the top 17 tech companies in the USA. Notable omissions from Gawker's list are HP and IBM (which happen to have female CEOs), and Intel (which has a female president). Here is Wikipedia's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_information_technology_companies">l</a><span dir="auto"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_information_technology_companies">ist of the largest information technology companies</a> (retrieved 9 October 2013).</span><br /><span dir="auto"><br /></span><span dir="auto">Obviously a few women in high places doesn't make the problem of gender imbalance disappear. But it really doesn't help the cause of diversity to airbrush out those women who have made it to the top of the tech ladder. </span><br /><br /><div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/IndustryAnalysis/~4/L7xBFzkhHBU" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>Richard Veryardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04499123397533975655noreply@blogger.com0