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NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football Pick: Saints vs. Falcons

The Falcons, losers of four straight, will host Drew Brees
and the surging Saints on Thursday Night Football. Where's the NFL betting
value for this one?

Odds Overview

The NFL odds vary quite a bit depending on the book, with
Atlanta getting anywhere from 7.5 to 9.5 points from sportsbooks. The Falcons
have been a total mess this season and their 2-8 ATS record is no shock.
Meanwhile, the Saints come in with 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS marks.

Think a lot of points are in order on Thursday? The O/U is
right around 53 points, with the OVER hitting in four of New Orleans' past five
matchups and in six of Atlanta's previous seven home games.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are looking good right now, but the Panthers are
breathing down their necks in the NFC South. Only one game separates those two
teams, so this road battle with Atlanta is of the utmost importance.

The 49ers were leading practically the entire second half,
but the Saints tied things up at 20 with two minutes to go and then Garrett
Hartley hit a game-winning field goal as time expired to give New Orleans the win.

A terrific team balance has been key to the Saints' reversed
fortunes this season. In the past we've seen New Orleans struggle mightily
defensively, but they're currently ranked fourth in total defense. As usual,
they're near the top (#2) in total offense.

Much of that credit has to go to Rob Ryan, who was brought
in as the defensive coordinator and has been influential to put it mildly. What
will he have cooked up for Matt Ryan and the Falcons?

Atlanta Falcons

Sure, the season has been terrible as a whole, but the past
month has been even more depressing than usual if you're a Falcons fan.

Atlanta has dropped four consecutive games, all of which
have come by double figures. They lost by 14 in Arizona, by 24 in Carolina and
by 13 in Tampa Bay, and also were crushed 33-10 at home by Seattle.

[gameodds]16/227030/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

The performance against the Buccaneers was perhaps the worst
though. They let rookie QB mike Glennon and little-known running back Bobby
Rainey stomp all over them, with the defense allowing at least 27 points for
the fourth straight week.

QB Matt Ryan finished 19-of-36 for 254 yards, while
recording two touchdowns and two interceptions. Harry Douglas caught six balls
for 134 yards and a score, while Steven Jackson finished with 65 total yards.

About the only positive news to come lately has been the
return of some key guys. Roddy White and Steven Jackson are back in the fold,
so maybe we'll start to see the Falcons of old as we near the end of the
regular season.

Are we really going to recommend a play on this struggling
Atlanta team? Are we crazy?

Maybe a little bit. Here's why: for one, the Saints aren't
nearly as dominating on the road. While they're a perfect 6-0 at home with some
huge blowout wins, they've gone 2-2 on the road, with losses to the Patriots
and Jets and close wins over Chicago and Tampa Bay.

It's certainly a messy situation in Atlanta, but they always
seem to get up for these divisional clashes with New Orleans. Back in Week 1,
the Falcons only lost by six to the Saints at the Superdome.

Injuries have plagued Atlanta throughout the year, but
they're starting to get healthier and we believe they'll really battle hard
with New Orleans on Thursday night. Take the home underdogs as your NFL pick.