1.1 Energy and Society

Industrialized societies run on energy, a tautological statement or an
oxymoron in the sense that it is obvious. Population, gross domestic
product (GDP), consumption and production of energy, and production of
pollution for the world and the United States are interrelated. The
United States has less than 5% of the world population, however it
generates around 25% of the gross production, 22% of the carbon dioxide
emissions and is at 22% for energy consumption (Fig. 1.1). Notice that
the countries listed in Figure 1.1 consume around 75% of the energy and
produce 75% the world GDP and carbon dioxide emission. Because
population has increased and the amount of energy per person has also
increased in the developed countries, the developed countries consume
the most energy and produce the most pollution. On a per person basis,
the United States is the worst for energy consumption and carbon
dioxide emitted.

The energy consumption in the United States increased from 32 Quads in
1950 to 101 Quads in 2008. One Quad = 1015 British Thermal Units
(discussed in Ch. 2). There was an increase in efficiency in the
industrial sector, primarily due to the shock of the oil crisis of
1973. However you must remember that correlation between gross domestic
production (GDP) and energy consumption does not mean cause and effect.
The oil crisis of 1973 showed that efficiency is a major component in
gross national product and the use of energy.

It is enlightening to consider how the United States has changed in
terms of energy since World War II. Ask your grandparents about their
lives in the year 1950 and then compare with your family today.

A thought on energy and GDP:
A solar clothes drying (a clothes line) does not add to the GNP, but
every electric and gas dryer does. They both do the same function. We
may need to think in terms of results and efficient ways to accomplish
that function or process. Why do we need heavy cars or SUVs that
accelerate rapidly to transport people?

Now
the underdeveloped part of the world, primarily the two largest
countries in term of population (China 1.3 * 109
and India 1.1 * 109),
is beginning to emulate the developed countries in terms of energy,
material resources, and emissions. One dilemma in the developing world
is that a large number of villages and others in rural areas do not
have electricity.

1.2 Types of Energy

There are many different types of energy. Kinetic energy is energy
available in the motion of particles, for example wind or moving water.
Potential energy is the energy available because of the position
between particles, for example water stored in a dam, the energy in a
coiled spring, and energy stored in molecules (gasoline). There are
many examples of energy; mechanical, electrical, thermal (heat),
chemical, magnetic, nuclear, biological, tidal, geothermal, and so on.

In reality there are only four interactions (forces between particles)
in the universe; nuclear, electromagnetic, weak, and gravitational [1].
In other words all the different types of energy in the universe can be
traced back to one of these four interactions. This interaction or
force is transmitted by an exchange particle. The exchange particles
for electromagnetic and gravitational interactions have zero rest mass
and with this comes the speed limit of light, 3*108 m/s (186,000
miles/second) for transfer of energy and information. Even though the
gravitational interaction is very very very weak, it is noticeable when
there are large masses. The four interactions are a great example of
how a scientific principle covers an immense amount of phenomena.

The source of solar energy is the nuclear interactions at the core of
the sun, where the energy comes from the conversion of hydrogen nuclei
into helium nuclei. This energy is primarily transmitted to the earth
by electromagnetic waves, which can also be represented by particles
(photons). In this course we will be dealing primarily with the
electromagnetic interaction, although hydro and tides are energy due to
the gravitational interaction and geothermal energy is due to
gravitational and nuclear decay.

1.3 Renewable Energy

Solar energy is referred to as renewable and/or sustainable energy
because it will be available as long as the sun continues to shine.
Estimates for the life of the main stage of the sun are another 4 to 5
billion years. The energy from the sun, electromagnetic radiation, is
referred to as insolation. The other main renewable energies are wind,
biomass, tides, waves, geothermal and hydro. Wind energy is derived
from the uneven heating of the earth's surface due to more heat input
at the equator with the accompanying transfer of water by evaporation
and rain. In this sense, rivers and dams for hydro energy are stored
solar energy. The third major aspect of solar energy is the conversion
of solar energy into biomass by photosynthesis. Animal products such as
oil from fat and biogas from manure are derived from solar energy.
Tidal energy is primarily due to the gravitational interaction of the
earth and the moon. Another renewable energy is geothermal, due to heat
from the earth from decay of radioactive particles. Volcanoes are fiery
examples of geothermal energy reaching the surface from the interior,
which is hotter than the surface.

Overall 14%
of the world's energy comes from biomass, primarily wood and charcoal,
but also crop residue and even animal dung for cooking and some
heating. This contributes to deforestation and the loss of topsoil in
developing countries. Production of ethanol from biomass is now a
contributor to liquid fuels for transportation, especially in Brazil.

In contrast, fossil fuels are stored solar energy from past geological
ages. Even though the quantities of oil, natural gas, and coal are
large, they are finite and for the long term of 100s of years they are
not sustainable.

1.4
Advantages/Disadvantages

The advantages of renewable energy are: sustainable (non depletable),
ubiquitous (found everywhere across the world in contrast to fossil
fuels and minerals) and essentially non-polluting. Note that wind
turbines and photovoltaic panels do not need water for the generation
of electricity, in contrast to steam plants fired by fossil fuels and
nuclear power.

The disadvantages of renewable
energy are: variability and low density. In general this results in
higher initial cost. For different forms of renewable energy, other
disadvantages or perceived problems are visual pollution, odor from
biomass, avian and bat mortality with wind plants, and brine from
geothermal. I am sure that wherever a large renewable facility is to be
located there will be perceived and real problems to the local people.
For conventional power plants using fossil fuels, for nuclear energy,
and even for renewable energy there is the problem of not in my
backyard.

1.5
Economics

Business entities always couch their concerns in terms of economics. We
cannot have a clean environment because it is uneconomical. Renewable
energy is not economical in comparison to coal, oil and natural gas. We
must be allowed to continue our operations as in the past, because if
we have to install new equipment, we cannot compete with other energy
sources. We will have to reduce employment, jobs will go overseas, etc.

The different types of economics to consider are pecuniary, social, and
physical. Pecuniary is what everybody thinks of as economics, DOLLARS.
On that note, we should be looking at life cycle costs, rather than our
ordinary way of doing business, low initial costs. Life cycle costs
refer to all costs over the lifetime of the system.

Social economics are those borne by everybody and many businesses want
the general public to pay for their environmental costs. A good example
is the use of coal in China, as they have laws (social) for clean air,
but they are not enforced. The cost will be paid in the future in terms
of health problems, especially for the children today. If environmental
problem(s) affect(s) someone else today or in the future, who pays? The
estimates of the pollution costs for generation of electricity by coal
range from $0.005 to 0.10/kWh

Physical
economics is the energy cost and the efficiency of the process. There
are fundamental limitations in nature due to physical laws. In the end Mother Nature always
wins
or the corollary, pay now or probably pay more in the future.
Energetics, which is the energy input versus energy produced for any
source, should be positive. For example production of ethanol from
irrigated corn has close to zero energetics.

Finally, we should look at incentives and penalties for the energy
entities. What each entity wants are subsidies for themselves and
penalties for their competitors. Penalties come in the form of taxes,
environmental and other regulations, while incentives come in the form
of subsidies, break on taxes, do not have to pay social costs on their
product, and the government pays for research and development. How much
should we subsidize businesses for exporting overseas? It is estimated
that we use energy sources in direct proportion to the incentives that
source has received in the past. There are many examples of incentives
and penalties for all types of energy production and use.

1.6
Global Warming

Global warming is a good example that physical phenomena do not react
to political or economic statements. Global warming is primarily due to
human activity. “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human
activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values
determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years
(see
Figure SPM.1). The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are
due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of
methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.” [2, 3]
Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Fig. 1.2) are
projected to double with future energy use based on today’s trend [4]
and will still increase, even if nations reduce their emissions to 1990
levels because of population growth and underdeveloped world increase
in energy use. As the Arctic thaws, then methane, a more potent
greenhouse gas than CO2, would further increase global warming [5].

Figure 1.2 Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of the earth.

The Kyoto Protocol of 1996 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions became
effective in 2005 as Russia became the 55th country to ratify the
agreement. The goal was for the participants collectively to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% below the emission levels of 1990
by 2012. While the 5.2% figure was a collective one, individual
countries were assigned higher or lower targets and some countries were
permitted increases. For example, the United States was expected to
reduce emissions by 7%. However this did not happen, as the U.S. did
not ratify the treaty because the United States position was that the
economic costs were too large and there were not enough provisions for
developing countries, especially China, to reduce future emissions. In
December 2009, Copenhagen meeting, the world is trying to set new
protocols.

If participant countries continue
with emissions above the targets, then they are required to engage in
emissions trading. Notable, participating countries in Europe are using
different methods for carbon dioxide trading, including wind farms and
planting forests in other countries.

Increased temperatures and the effect on weather and sea level rise are
the major consequences. Overall the increased temperature will have
negative effects compared to the climate of 1900-2000. By
2100
sea levels are projected to increase by 0.2 to 1 m, however 2 m is
unlikely, but physically possible. With positive feedback due to less
sea ice and continued increase in carbon dioxide emissions, then
melting of the Greenland ice sheets would increase the sea level by
over 7 m and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would add another 5 m. The
large cities on the oceans will have to be relocated or build massive
infrastructures to keep out the ocean.

1.7
Order of Magnitude Estimates

We will use exponents to indicate large and small numbers. The exponent
indicates how many times the number is multiplied by itself, or how
many places the decimal point needs to be moved. Powers of ten will be
very useful in order of magnitude problems, which are rough estimates.

103 = 10*10*10
=1000

10-3 = 1/103
= 0.001

Note there is a discrepancy between the use of billions in the U.S.
(109) and England (1012). If there is a doubt, we will use exponents or
the following notation for prefixes.

Nano

10-9

Giga

109

Micro

10-6

Tera

1012

Milli

10-3

Peta

1015

Exa

1018

Kilo

103

Mega

106

Quad (Quadrillion BTU)

1015 BTU

1 Quad = 1.055 exajoules

In
terms of energy consumption, production, supply and demand and design
for heating and cooling, estimates are needed and an order of magnitude
estimate will suffice. By order of magnitude, we mean an answer of 1 to
2 significate digits with a power of ten.

Example:
How many seconds in a year. With a calculator it is easy

365 days
* 24 hr/day * 60 min/hr * 60 sec/hr = 31,536,000

When you
round to one significant digit, this becomes 3 * 107
seconds.

Order
of magnitude estimate. For the above multiplication round each number
with a power of ten, then multiply numbers and add the powers of ten

4 *102
* 2 *101 * 6 *101 * 6 * 101
= 4 * 2 * 6 * 6 *105

= 288 * 105
= 3 * 102 * 105 = 3 * 107
seconds.

1.8
Growth (Exponential)

Our
energy dilemma can be analyzed in terms of fundamental principles. It
is a physical impossibility to have exponential growth of any product
or exponential consumption of any physical resource in a finite system.
As an example, suppose Mary started employment with $1/yr, however her
salary is doubled every year, a 100% increase (Table 1.1, Fig. 1.3).
Notice that after 30 years, her salary is one billion dollars. Also
notice that for any year, the amount needed for the next period is
equal to the total sum for all the previous periods plus one. The
mathematics of exponential growth is given in Appendix 1.

Figure 1.3 Growth with doubling time of 1 year.

Table 1.1 Exponential growth with a doubling time of 1
year.

Year

Salary, $

Amount = 2t

Cumulative, $

0

1

20

1

1

2

21

3

2

4

22

7

3

8

23

15

4

16

24

31

5

32

25

63

t

2t

2t+1-1

30

1* 109

230

231-1

Another useful idea is doubling time,
T2, for exponential growth, which can be calculated by

T2 = 69/R

1.1

where R is the % growth per unit time,
generally one year. Doubling times for some different year rates are
given in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Doubling times for different rates of growth.

Growth (%/Year)

Doubling Time (Years)

1

69

2

35

3

23

4

18

5

14

6

12

7

10

8

8

9

8

10

7

15

5

There
are numerous historical examples of growth; population, 2-3%/yr;
gasoline consumption, 3%/yr; world production of oil, 5-7%/yr;
electrical consumption, 7%/yr. If we plotted the value per year for
smaller rates of growth (Fig. 1.4), the curve would be the same as
Figure 1.3, only the time scale along the bottom would be different.
The United Nations projects over 9 billion people (Fig. 1.5) by 2050
[6], with the assumption that the growth rate will decrease from 1.18%
in 2008 to 0.34% in 2050.

Figure 1.4 World population to 2010

Figure 1.5 World population with project to 2050 under
medium variant.

HOWEVER
EVEN WITH DIFFERENT RATES OF GROWTH, THE FINAL RESULT IS STILL THE
SAME. WHEN CONSUMPTION GROWS EXPONENTIALLY, ENORMOUS RESOURCES DO NOT
LAST VERY LONG.

This is the fundamental flaw in term of
ordinary economics ($) and announcing growth in terms of percentages.
How long do they want those growth rates to continue? Nobody wants to
discuss how much is enough. The theme since President Reagan is that
all we need is economic development and the world's problems will be
solved. However the global economic crisis of 2008 and environmental
problems have made some economists have second thoughts on continued
growth. Now there are lots of books on the problems of fossil fuels,
other resources such as minerals and water and environmental effects.

1.9 Solutions

We
do not have an energy crisis, since you will learn energy cannot be
created or destroyed. We have an energy dilemma because of the finite
amount of readily available fossil fuels, which are our main energy
source today. The problem is twofold: population is 6.8 * 109 and
growing toward 11 * 109 and developing countries want the same standard
of living as developed countries. The world population is so large that
we are doing an uncontrolled experiment on the earth's environment.
However the developed countries were the major contributors to this
uncontrolled experiment, and now consumption in China and India is
adding to the problem.

The solution depends on
world, national and local policies and what policies do we implement
and even individual actions. In my opinion it is obvious what needs to
be done for the world; reduce consumption, zero population growth,
shift to renewable energy, reduce greenhouse gas emission, reduce
environmental pollution and reduce military expenditures. What do you
do as an individual? I have done things in the past to save energy and
have future plans. What are yours?

Links

This
site contains a lot of information on U.S. and international energy
resources and production. International energy outlook,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Data files can be downloaded, PDF and
spreadsheets.

Problems

What was the population of the world in 1950, 2000, this
year, projected for 2050?

What was the population of your country in 1950, 2000, this
year, projected for 2050?

List two advantages of renewable energy.

List two disadvantage of renewable energy.

Besides large hydro, what are the two most important
renewable energy
sources for your country? Do not count solar for food production.

For a sustainable society in your country, what would be
the two most important policy issues?

What are the largest two sources in the world for carbon
dioxide emissions?

Besides the United States, what country consumes the most
energy?

What country emits the most carbon dioxide? How much per
year (latest year data are available)?

The size of the European Union has increased over the
years. Estimate
the percentage increase in GDP and energy consumption by the addition
of these new blocks of countries.

When is gravity considered a source for renewable energy?

Global warming is primarily due to what factor?

What is the predicted amount of carbon dioxide, ppm, in the
atmosphere for 2050?

What three nations emit the most carbon dioxide per year?
What percent is that of the world total?

What percent of the world total of carbon dioxide emission
per year is
due to combustion of coal, combustion of oil, combustion of natural gas?

What is your carbon footprint?
www.carbonify.com/carbon-calculator.htm
or from BP,
www.bp.com/iframe.do?categoryId=9023118&contentId=7045317&nicam=USCSEnergy_LabQ109&nisrc=Google&nigrp=Energy_Lab_Calculator&niadv=Carbon_Dioxide_Calculator&nipkw=co2_calculate

Under the Kyoto Protocol, list 3 participating countries
and what are
their emission levels of carbon dioxide (latest year available)
compared with their levels of 1990. Remember the target levels are
below 1990 levels.

The local business people want the city to grow. What rate
do they want, %/year? What is that doubling time?

Suppose world population grows at 0.5% per year, what is
the doubling
time? After that period of time, what is the projected world population?