Opponent Dossier - Radek Stepanek

For my next article, I thought I'd write an opponent dossier. Basically it's a very detailed scouting report, similar to what I've prepared about Joao Sousa, Aljaz Bedene and Annika Beck.

This time I look at Radek Stepanek, with some very interesting observations about the Czech veteran.

Radek Stepanek has great issues with declining levels as the set progresses...

Name: Radek Stepanek

Age: 35

Plays: Right Handed

Current Rank: 39

Best Rank: 8 (2006)

Basic 12 Month Statistics:-

Win/Loss

Service

Break

Combined

Record

Hold
%

Opponent
%

%

Hard

7-11

75.5

24.1

99.6

Indoor
Hard

2-2

72.3

22.4

94.7

Clay

4-5

73.9

25.4

99.3

Grass

5-2

91.8

12.1

103.9

Overall

18-20

78.1

21.9

100

It can be seen that
Stepanek is a very average player (100% combined overall percentage and
also hold and break statistics close to the ATP average) with no huge preference for surface. He should
perform to a fairly consistent level across all surfaces and his statistics indicate he is slightly flattered by his ranking.

As Stepanek has aged, his
statistics have altered significantly.
For example, in 2008, when he was 29, he held 86.1% and broke 22.2%, so
it is clear that his serve has significantly deteriorated as he has got older.

12 Month Best of 3 Set Statistics:-

1st
Set

2nd
Set

3rd
Set

15-15

17-13

6-8

Again, there is little
deviation from average here. Stepanek has
a fairly consistent win percentage throughout the sets. However, with a 23-27 record in his last 50
deciding sets, it would seem there would be a slight trend towards his level
dropping in deciding sets. On that
basis, a player would have a slightly better chance in deciding sets against
him than any other set, and even when a break down in a decider, is far from
being out of the match.

14 out of Stepanek’s 30
matches (46.7%) went to three sets and this percentage is very high (ATP mean
36.4%). In combination with a very poor 12-month
73.3% record when he wins the first set and this dropping slightly to 72.0% in
his last 50 matches, it is clear that Stepanek lacks the killer instinct, or
physical ability to keep his level high, to win in straight sets as much as
would be expected.

12 Month In-Set Statistics:-

First
Two

Late

Service
Games

Service
Games

Service
Hold %

77.2

65.4

Break
Opponent %

29.1

28.1

Combined
%

106.3

93.5

It’s evident from the above
stats that Stepanek starts sets fast, with an impressive 106.3% combined
hold/break percentage. This is also
indicative of his fitness issues, with his late game (any game after at least
one player has reached four games in a set) service hold percentage 11.9% lower
than in his first two service games. His
opponents would be well advised to keep as focused as possible early in the match
and the basic goal must be to avoid being broken in their first two service
games. If an opponent can get to 2-2 or
better at that stage, they have a very strong chance of taking the set.

However, if Stepanek does
manage to break opponents early in the set, all hope is not lost. He loses a break lead so the set goes back on
serve 43.9% in the last 12 months, which is much worse than the ATP average of
28.6%. This also indicates a declining
level as sets progress, and it is vital that opponents do not give up when a
break down, because he has a high propensity to give breaks back to opponents.

Overall, it is recommended
that opponents try to play solid tennis by keeping as many balls in play as
possible in late games of the set and allow Stepanek to make mistakes. Also
recommended is trying to make him run, and use as much energy, as possible.

Also indicative of his
declining level throughout sets is his break deficit recovery percentage of
20.4%, also worse than the ATP mean. To
put this statistic into context, it is similar to ‘big servers’ with limited
return games. Opponents should be
confident that Stepanek will produce less of a challenge when a break down than
the average ATP player.

Other Statistics of Note:-

Stepanek produces
statistics very close to ATP mean in almost every area. However his break point won percentage is low
at 57.4% compared to his service points won percentage of 63.5%, and that is a very poor 3.3% below expectation. This would
indicate some mental strength issues when facing break points (also something
that could contribute to the declining statistics in the late games of sets).

Summary:-

Solid across all surfaces

Serve has deteriorated with age

Has issues keeping level
high, and loses too many 2nd sets when he won the 1st

The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!