Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 07-12-2010

Many markets are indeed either topping or topped out here over the last day as I forecast in Friday's signal. EUR/USD peaked out a bit and turned lower fairly well and EUR/JPY this evening worked out quite a nice double top at 112.40 resistance, while Stocks, AUD/USD and USD/JPY seem to be working out some final bullish kinks before they top out. Right now I'd be looking to sell EUR/USD on and decent bounce... I'd say a sell in the 1.2630-1.2660 range with an SL at least 10 pips higher than Friday's 1.2722 high should do well for a swing/position trade short.

Stocks may be topping out right in a target band for a retracement rally to the 1070 to 1085 range. If this is a typical retracement rally, we should top out and start heading lower from this resistance area TODAY. The longer we sit up here, the more the odds start to drop that we will see downside trend resumption. If we're still in a bullish mode come tomorrow evening, I'll start discussing other options, but for right now, this is a very good and typical short-on-the-bounce type opportunity (S&P 500 futures now at 1071).

In news Friday, we saw CAD Employment figures come out incredibly high and we saw a very strong reaction that continued to push lower for several hours after the initial release. 65-70 pips in the first minute and a bottom 130 pips from prerelease 3 hours later. Now that's my kinda news move! In news Monday:

0430 UK GDP q/q Final (0.3% expected) - Final revisions of US and UK GDP figures only work as news trades when there's a nice large surprise on them, so we'll need at least 0.2% or possibly even a 0.3% surprise here to produce a reliable trade. Needing that big of a surprise puts the odds of actually catching a tradeable number at only about 20%, but if we get it, the price action should be pretty clear-cut and simple.
If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

I'm not personally in short EUR/JPY, but it looked like a good trade as I mentioned. Just pick something appropriate comparable to your SL. Whatever your SL was, try a 1/2 TP at those same amount of pips, then final TP at twice the amount your risked. That's a good standard to start with and you can tweak it from there.

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