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Can ‘Idol’ Still Churn Out Stars? Time Will Tell

With a rush of publicity over the departure of Simon Cowell, “American Idol” returned this week for a ninth season, promising once again to introduce the next batch of fresh-faced pop stars.

But when it comes to how well those winners and finalists will ultimately fare in the music marketplace, stardom is far from a sure thing, as sales figures from Nielsen SoundScan show.

Take for example Katharine McPhee, who came in second place on Season 5. Her first, self-titled record came out three years ago on RCA, and opened at No. 2 on the Billboard album chart. But a year later she was dropped by RCA, and last week she released her second album, “Unbroken,” on Verve, an imprint of Universal Music Group. (Sony Music Entertainment, RCA’s parent, has the contractual option to release music by “Idol” contestants.) “Unbroken” opened at No. 27 with 15,000 sales, and to date both albums have sold a combined 380,000 copies, a modest number for any aspiring pop star.

Granted, Ms. McPhee has not been one of the show’s biggest success stories. But even for its most famous names, who must learn to build a musical career that relies on more than their association with the show, “Idol” has shown a pattern of diminishing returns.

Kelly Clarkson, the first winner and one of the franchise’s most familiar faces, has released four albums since 2003, with combined sales of 10.5 million. But only 819,000 of that is for her latest, “All I Ever Wanted,” which came out in March. Chris Daughtry (fourth place in Season 5), who records simply as Daughtry, sold 4.6 million copies of his first album, but his latest, “Leave This Town,” released last summer, hasn’t been as popular, selling 890,000.

Carrie Underwood, the Season 4 winner, has felt the same effect, but less severely. Her “Some Hearts,” from 2005, has sold a whopping 6.9 million copies, and its follow-up, “Carnival Ride,” 3.1 million. Her latest, “Play On,” has been out for 10 weeks and moved a healthy 1.2 million copies.

For retailers, radio programmers and music industry observers, there is no clear answer to the question of whether “American Idol” has lost its ability to mint big stars, or whether these sliding numbers are simply a function of the larger pattern of declining album sales as consumers shift from buying CDs to downloading single songs.

“I still think that ‘Idol,’ even the most recent seasons, is such a great platform for the winners to work with superstar writers and producers,” said Sharon Dastur, program director for the New York Top 40 station Z100 (WHTZ, 100.3 FM). “They wouldn’t have gotten the chance to do that if they were just another singer starting out.”

Photo

Katharine McPhee, who came in second on Season 5 of “American Idol,” performing with the winner, Taylor Hicks. Ms. McPhee's first record opened at No. 2 on the Billboard album chart.Credit
Vince Bucci/Getty Images

Although the ratings for “American Idol,” which is on Fox, have been declining since their peak in 2006, it is still by far the most popular series on television. But the music industry has changed dramatically in the last nine years, and the novelty of an “Idol” win may no longer be enough to propel a winner’s album sales, let alone sustain a career.

Adam Lambert, who came in second on Season 8 last year, enjoyed about as much attention as a new pop star could possibly hope for. He ended up on the cover of Rolling Stone and with a big controversy — usually good for sales — over his performance at the “American Music Awards” in November, right before his album “For Your Entertainment” was released.

But “For Your Entertainment” has failed to catch fire, peaking at No. 3 on the chart and selling 445,000 copies to date. That’s nothing to sniff at, but in the same span of time Susan Boyle — introduced on another television talent show last year — has moved more than seven times as many.

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While their album sales may have suffered, many ‘Idol’ singers have found success with downloads of single songs. “Battlefield,” the second album by Jordin Sparks, who won Season 6, has sold only 158,000 copies. (Her first, “Jordin Sparks,” has sold one million.) But its title track has been a big hit on the radio — Ms. Dastur said that Z100 had played it 1,578 times since last May, while most songs do not make it past 1,200 spins — and been downloaded 1.3 million times.

Kris Allen, who beat Mr. Lambert for the title last year, has had a slow start in terms of album sales: his self-titled release has sold 233,000 copies since it was released in November. But his song “Live Like We’re Dying” has had 551,000 downloads.

Tom Corson, general manager of the RCA Music Group, dismissed a suggestion that the “Idol” buzz has cooled off.

“It’s reflective of the overall market,” he said. “With most artists, the physical sales have eroded but the digital side has grown.”

At least one part of the music industry, however, is not happy about the shift to digital music: retailers. Joe Nardone Jr., an owner of Gallery of Sound, a six-store chain in Pennsylvania, believes that digital sales come at the expense of CDs, particularly when it comes to “Idol” singers, whose performances on the show are often sold as downloads while the contest is still going on.

“Since they’ve driven everybody online with that promotion, and with all the voting, the physical side is taken out of the mix,” Mr. Nardone said. “When somebody has to wait for the album, six months later, they’re less interested.”

A version of this article appears in print on January 15, 2010, on Page C2 of the New York edition with the headline: Can ‘Idol’ Still Churn Out Stars? Time Will Tell. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe