Next Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame is expected to release the latest ballot for its Modern Baseball Era Committee, which considers players, managers, umpires and executives who made their greatest contribution to the game between 1970 and 1987.

More than likely, a number of good players aren’t even going to make the ballot.

For whatever reason, since 2010 the Hall of Fame’s gone with an era-based approach for considering veteran candidates. Currently, candidates are assigned to one of four eras — Early Days, Golden Days, Modern Baseball or Today’s Game — based on their perceived best years. Candidates then get considered on a rotating basis, with the same era not considered in consecutive years.

Last year, this setup led to an unusually weak Today’s Game Era Committee ballot, because only candidates who’d made their greatest mark since 1988 but had been retired since 2001 were considered. This year, with a number of first-time candidates eligible for the Modern Baseball ballot, it looks stronger than it has in years.

The likely ballot

Generally, the ballot is 10 candidates, with a mix of players, managers, umpires and executives. There’s not a set 50-50 split between players and the other three types of candidates, though one was in place last year on a weak players ballot.

The following assumes this year’s ballot will skew heavily in favor of players but stay with 10 slots. Just three dead players have gotten in the Hall of Fame through the veterans voting system in the past 15 years. The Hall of Fame isn’t exactly in a hurry to put more of these men in.

Steve Garvey, player: The 1974 National League MVP appeared on the first two veterans ballots for which he was eligible, the then-Expansion Era Committee for the 2011 and 2014 elections.

Garvey received fewer than eight votes out of 16 each time he’s been on the veterans ballot thus far, though he remains a popular candidate. He doesn’t lack for confidence. “I think there’s a reason why I’ve been on the ballot,” Garvey told Sporting News in 2016 . “Hopefully the voters will see that and give me the greatest honor of my career and put me in the Hall of Fame.”

Tommy John, player: The 288-game winner and first player to receive ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery has also been a two-time veterans candidate, falling short in 2011 and 2014. Bert Blyleven making the Hall of Fame with 287 wins likely ensures that John will at least make the veterans ballot for the foreseeable future. Jim Kaat would be here as well if so much of his career hadn’t occurred before 1970.

John’s not exactly happy with Hall of Fame purgatory, telling Sporting News in 2016 , “I’m being held back because I didn’t conform to some sportswriter’s idea of what is good and what is not good.”

Billy Martin, manager: Martin has made six veterans ballots. Perhaps he’s the new Leo Durocher, another controversial but effective manager who appeared on the Veterans Committee ballot at least 10 years before finally being enshrined in 1994.

Marvin Miller, executive: The former executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association and the man who helped topple the game’s Reserve Clause in the mid-1970s is eligible for Cooperstown once again, if only so a bunch of aging, baseball establishment committee members can vote him down.

Jack Morris, player, newly eligible: Morris’s candidacy on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s ballot for Cooperstown stoked something of a culture battle between veteran writers and sabermetricians. Another skirmish could be looming. Morris isn’t sweating, telling Sporting News last week , “I just look and I compare myself to the guys that I played with. I could play with any of them. I think my record speaks for itself."

Dale Murphy, player, newly eligible: The only two-time MVP likely to be on the ballot, Murphy declined precipitously in his early 30s and fell far short of Cooperstown with the writers. Like Morris, he could fare better with older voters. But Murphy, known for his niceness during his career, is also concerned with getting other players recognized.

“There’s a lot of guys that I think should be in,” Murphy told Sporting News in 2016 . “There’s a lot of guys that a lot of people think should be in. So it’s not like I’m the only one out there when I talk about it.”

Dave Parker: In his prime, Parker was considered one of the best players in baseball history. Drug abuse cost him some of his greatness and might prevent him from making this year's ballot, though he made the first one for which he was eligible in 2014.

If not Parker, this spot could go to another former Red, Dave Concepcion. Parker could get the edge for sympathy, as he has Parkinson's disease (though the Hall of Fame isn't always the most sentimental institution.)

Luis Tiant, player: The former Boston Red Sox ace has made five veterans' ballots and doesn't appreciate the callousness sometimes on display at Cooperstown. He told Sporting News in April, “I already told my family, ‘They put me after I die, don’t go anywhere. Don’t go to the Hall of Fame, don’t go to Cooperstown, don’t go no god— place.’ Cause I think it’s wrong what they do.”

Alan Trammell, player, newly eligible: In terms of sabermetrics, Trammell might be the strongest candidate on the soon-to-be-released ballot. It will be interesting to see what happens. “There’s nothing else I can do,” Trammell told Sporting News in 2016 . “The numbers are there. As far as my career, I can’t change anything. I’m not going to play anymore. I’ve never been one that would lobby. It’s just not my style.”

Lou Whitaker, player, newly eligible: The Hall of Fame seemingly has groups of veterans voters to review candidates such as Whitkaer, who drew just 2.9 percent of the vote his only year on the writers’ ballot. "I didn't even get daylight," Whitaker told Sporting News earlier this year .

10 good players unlikely to make the ballot

Many of the players below are favorites of the sabermetric community. The thought here is that a tight ballot will skew toward more high-profile players who have less impressive numbers by analytics.

Dave Concepcion: A stalwart of the Big Red Machine Cincinnati teams of the 1970s, Concepcion drew the most votes of any player on the then-Expansion Era Committee ballot in 2011. He slipped in 2014 and wouldn't appear to have better chances on a much more competitive ballot. It's not the greatest injustice, as his sabermetric stats are underwhelming, though Concepcion has his supporters.

Dwight Evans: The former Boston Red Sox outfielder has supporters as high-profile as Bill James touting his case. But Evans is yet to even make a veterans ballot for the Hall of Fame, though he was eligible in 2014. Someone may write that Evans had better numbers than Murphy, when the former Brave makes the ballot. Still, Evans never won any MVPs and that could hurt him in the eyes of the people who make the ballots, the Hall of Fame Overview Committee.

Bobby Grich: A .266 lifetime batting average and fewer than 2,000 hits will likely doom the former Orioles and Angels second baseman, who might be the most underrated player in baseball history.

Ron Guidry: In a 1986 Sporting News poll of MLB managers, the former Yankees ace ranked as one of four active probable Hall of Famers. His career ended not long thereafter, though, with Guidry short of 200 wins. That could doom him here.

Keith Hernandez: Hernandez has a case as the greatest defensive first baseman in baseball history. An early decline and a prominent role in the Pittsburgh Drug Trials of the mid-1980s could doom him, at least from making this ballot.

Thurman Munson: A sentimental favorite, the former New York Yankees' captain who died in a 1979 plane crash has his supporters for Cooperstown. Still, he never did much on the writers' ballot for Cooperstown and hasn't made a veterans ballot since 2007. Don't expect him to make a comeback on a packed ballot.

Al Oliver: Collusion might have cost Oliver a chance at 3,000 hits. James predicted Oliver as a Hall of Famer in "The Politics of Glory," though Oliver's fared poorly both with the writers and the veterans. He didn't make the last veterans ballot for which he was eligible in 2014.

Rick Reuschel: By Wins Above Replacement, Reuschel ranks as a supremely underrated pitcher of the 1970s and '80s. When younger baseball analysts start being part of the veterans committees at the Hall of Fame, Reuschel could gain some traction as a candidate. That could come in 10 or 20 years.

Ted Simmons: The former standout St. Louis Cardinals catcher made the 2011 and 2014 veterans ballots, receiving fewer than eight votes each time, same as Garvey and John. Those other two would appear to have more name recognition and a better chance than Simmons of making this ballot, though he might take either of their places. At his peak, he was one of the best catchers in one of the greatest eras for them in baseball history, though he declined very steeply in his 30s.

Dave Stieb: By sabermetrics, Stieb was a far better pitcher than Morris during the 1980s. He lacked Morris' longevity and heroics in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, though, and seems unlikely to make a tight ballot.

Other unlikely candidates

A Hall of Fame case can be made for many of these players. Some have even been candidates on past veterans ballots. But they have little hope this year.

Buddy Bell, Darrell Evans or Graig Nettles: Variations of the same candidate, Bell, Evans and Nettles were all third basemen with good sabermetric stats. Like Grich, their underwhelming traditional numbers will likely ensure they aren't considered.

Vida Blue: Falls into a similar category as Hernandez or Parker, a great player with a career marred by drug abuse. He doesn't have Hernandez's advanced stats or Parker's sentimental appeal, though Blue's tremendously likable and arguably has better stats than a teammate in Cooperstown, Catfish Hunter. That could help Blue at some point.

Bobby Bonds: In short, he suffers in comparison to his famous son.

Sparky Lyle or Dan Quisenberry: Someone might point out that either man was possibly better at his peak than Lee Smith, though neither Lyle nor Quisenberry ever came remotely close to what Smith was able to do while on the writers' ballot for Cooperstown, where he drew better than 50 percent of the vote.

Willie Randolph: Another supremely underrated player, the former Yankees second baseman has never made a veterans ballot. He's unlikely to start now.

Reggie Smith: Similar things can be said about Smith as Randolph.

Rusty Staub: The former Montreal Expos and New York Mets fan favorite made the then-Expansion Era ballot in 2011, though he fell off in 2014 and seems unlikely to get back on on a tight ballot.

Managers and executives who might make a weaker player’s ballot

All these men were good at what they did, but none would appear to have the clout to unseat name players on a competitive ballot.

Charlie Finley

Bob Howsam

Gene Mauch

Danny Murtaugh

Unlikely to make the ballot because of the years their careers spanned

Dick Allen: Allen's career splits fairly evenly between this era and the Golden Days Era Committee ballot, which covers 1950 through 1969. Allen's supporters mounted a campaign to get him on this ballot but the Hall of Fame Overview Committee ultimately had other thoughts.

Jim Kaat: Similar to Allen, more of Kaat's value is concentrated during the years the Golden Days Era Committee looks at.

Don Mattingly: Mattingly had just four full seasons in the years reviewed by the Modern Baseball Era Committee. Superb as those seasons were, with Mattingly hitting .331 with a 150 OPS+ and MVP in them, it might be unjust if he makes this ballot due to them.

Lee Smith: The Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot looks at players who made their greatest contribution 1970 to 1987. Smith had 62 percent of his saves from 1988 through retirement.

George Steinbrenner: The mercurial, late New York Yankees owner, appeared on the Today’s Game Era Committee ballot last year.

Update, 11/1: Lee Smith was listed as a likely candidate in the initial version of this article. A reader commented that Smith and Don Mattingly might be more likely to make the Today's Game Era Committee ballot, which covers candidates since 1988. Dave Parker replaced Smith as a likely candidate here, with Al Oliver and Ron Guidry moving into the section highlighting good but unlikely candidates.