Looking at QBs for the draft, Luck, Griffin are not close in talent

Dave Martin/Associated PressStanford quarterback Andrew Luck, the expected top pick in the NFL Draft, runs a sprint at the NFL Scouting Combine. Some NFL personnel people think Luck isn't in the same class as Robert Griffin III.

Third in a series of columns previewing the 2012 NFL Draft.

Today: quarterbacks

For the first time since 1999, the first two picks in the NFL draft will be quarterbacks, and like that 1999 draft, the first three picks may be quarterbacks as well.

Is there much difference between expected No. 1 pick Andrew Luck of Stanford, who will join Indianapolis, and expected No. 2 pick, Robert Griffin III of Baylor, who Washington traded away its immediate future to acquire?

Luck, 6-foot-4, 234, would have been the No. 1 pick if he came out last draft, but shocked the league when he went back to school. A three-year starter, his quarterback rating based on the NFL system would be 111.9.

Griffin (6-2 ½, 223) started for four years at Baylor, but had his 2009 season cut short by a knee injury. His quarterback rating over that time was 110.1.

According to one long-time personnel man the two are not even in the same conversation.

“They’re not even comparable,’’ he said. “It’s not close at all.

“Luck is the best guy I’ve ever scouted. The best I’ve ever done. Whatever you want a quarterback to do, he can do. However it is that you tests quarterbacks, he passes. He’s a hell of an athlete. He’s smart. He can do it all. I mean you look at what he had in college (at Stanford) which wasn’t much and what he accomplished. There are just no negatives on this guy.’’

All right, what about the man who beat out Luck for the Heisman this past fall, RG III?

“He’s exciting,’’ the personnel man said. “No doubt about that. But is he ever going to win a Super Bowl for you? I don’t know. I don’t see him winning one. He can win games. I mean if Mike Vick can win games and Tim Tebow can win games, than he can win games.

“That’s what he is; he’s the new Mike Vick. He’s probably smarter, and off the field he’s a great kid, but he’s the new Vick.’’

Not the new Cam Newton?

“Hell no,’’ the personnel man said. “He’s nowhere near Cam.’’

There have been exceptions, of course, but in most drafts when two quarterbacks are highly touted one succeeds and the other fails.

Think about Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf or Drew Bledsoe/Rick Mirer or even Aaron Rodgers/Alex Smith. And there’s more years such as 2007 when No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell and later first-round pick Brady Quinn were both busts, then years such as 2004 when Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger have all been successful.

“Go back to that ’99 draft with (Donovan) McNabb,’’ the personnel man said. “What did you have, five quarterbacks that year? How did that turn out?’’

In 1999, Cleveland took Tim Couch with the No. 1 pick, the Eagles followed with McNabb at No. 2 and Cincinnati made Akili Smith No. 3.

Two more, Daunte Culpepper to Minnesota at No. 11 and Cade McNown to Chicago at No. 12, made it five quarterbacks in the top dozen picks.

Only McNabb lived up to his billing, although Culpepper had some good years, too. Couch, Smith and McNown were busts.

“Look around the league,’’ the personnel man said. “How many real franchise quarterbacks are there, guys who can win the Super Bowl? Maybe eight? And guys want there to be three or four coming out of college every year. It’s just not going to happen. They build these guys up to be so much more than they really are.’’

That might be happening with the third ranked quarterback in this draft, Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M. Early on he was projected as a mid-to-late first round pick. Now there’s talk of teams trading up to No. 3 to select him.

“He’s pretty good,’’ the personnel man said. “He’s big (6-4, 221), he can throw. He can do a little bit of everything. The one thing that bothers me is he had a bunch of chances, like five, to win games at the end and didn’t win any. In my opinion, he’s not the No. 3 player in the draft, but I sure hope he goes there.’’

There’s not much after the top three quarterbacks. Here’s a quick look at some later picks at the position.

Brock Osweiler, Arizona State, 6-7, 240: “He’s real raw, but he has size and a good arm. You might try with him.’’

B.J. Coleman, Chattanooga, 6-3 ½, 225: “Again, he’s a project, but you might be able to work with him. There’s something there.’’

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, 6-3, 202: “He’s smart and has all the intangibles you want. He just doesn’t play that well.’’