Voters falling in love with ANC again, DA and EFF suffering

Despite load shedding and other ills proudly served up for the benefit of South African voters, their support are starting to pivot back the ruling ANC while opposition parties such as the DA and EFF are starting to see a decline voter embracement.

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) latest snap pole of voter preferences shows ANC support has risen to 56%, four percentage points up since September this year.

The IRR says in line with its objective to become an authority on political market research, the Institute has undertaken a snap poll, focusing exclusively on party political support, to supplement the IRR’s first full survey on the electoral landscape, carried out in September 2018.

The snap poll was in the field during the last week of November and the first week of December. It comprised three sets of questions: Voting intention, party favourability (ANC, DA, EFF) and, finally, a question on the strength of support for Patricia de Lille’s proposed new political party, when forced to choose between it and the four biggest political parties.

The IRR will undertake a full political survey every quarter. The next full quarterly survey will be conducted in February 2019, ahead of the May 2019 election.

The banner headline findings of the snap poll are:

• The ANC is on 56%, up four percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 59%;

• The DA is on 18%, down five percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 22%;

• The EFF is on 11%, down two percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 10%;

• That pattern is reflected in the party favourability ratings, which has 54% of respondents somewhat or very favourable towards the ANC (up from 53% in September); 28% somewhat or very favourable towards the DA (down from 34% in September) and 21% somewhat or very favourable towards the EFF (down from 28% in September);

• In Gauteng, no party holds a majority. The ANC comes in with 48%, the DA 25% and the EFF 12%. The ANC has increased by two percentage points from September, the DA declined by three percentage points and the EFF has declined by five percentage points from September. On a projected 73% turnout scenario, the ANC comes in at 50%, the DA at 27% and the EFF at 10%; and

• The potential market for Patricia de Lille’s new party seems to be primarily among undecided voters, some of whom are likely alienated from the DA and the ANC. After that, she draws support directly from respondents who had previously selected the DA or the ANC.