3. Environmental Trends

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Last modified 29 Jul 2009, 03:10 PM

3.1 Progress towards 5EAP Targets

The analysis of current status and trends and their relationship to
targets set for each of the key environmental themes leads to the
following conclusions:

The 5EAP environmental targets for 1994/95
are expected to be reached for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons,
nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and
heavy metals.

The European Union is set to meet
5EAP targets for the year 2000 in the following key areas (see
Table 3.1.1):

Sulphur dioxide (SO2)
emissions;

production of Ozone Depleting
Substances;

carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,
where - despite considerable uncertainties - the achievements for 2000
can be seen as a first step towards further reductions.

In a number of other areas, the EU
is heading in the right direction, but meeting targets in the following
areas is far from assured:

acidification, where widespread
exceedance of critical loads will continue;

VOCs, emissions of which are
clearly reduced, but due to time lags in the implementation of
directives, meeting targets by 2000 is not assured;

waste management, where (despite
current prevention policies) waste generation shows a steady increase
and further improvements in recycling will be constrained by recycling
costs and the lack of markets of secondary materials;

nitrates, where standards for
drinking water will be exceeded less often due to substantial
reductions in the use of nitrogen in agriculture, but due to the
longevity of nitrates in groundwater, the targets will not be met
without denitrification of groundwater;

urban environment, where
environmental pressures (such as particulates emitted from vehicles,
and wider problems in some cities), particularly those related to
traffic continue to worsen in most cities;

conservation and protection of
biodiversity, though an increasing number of areas are protected
for nature conservation objectives and impacts from agriculture will be
reduced as a result of changes in CAP and due to the agri-environment
measures, impacts from transport and tourism will worsen.

Current policies are not
sufficient to tackle a few key issues. These include:

CO2 emissions after
2000;

traffic related issues eg, NOx
emissions and noise;

water abstraction and the quality of marine
water and groundwater (the latter particularly in respect of
pesticides);

3.2 Findings for each environmental theme

Global scale

The continuing and rapid increase in the
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases can cause climate
change. There is a considerable time delay between a reduction of
the emissions of these gases and stabilisation of atmospheric
concentrations. After a period of steady increase, total emissions of
CO2 (the most important greenhouse gas) fell between 1990
and 1993, partly due to the economic recession during these years.
Although CO2 emissions from industry have decreased,
emissions from the transport sector show an increase.

Achieving the target of stabilisation of EU
CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by 2000 seems to be the
cornerstone of EU environmental policy. There is, however, great
uncertainty about whether the EU will meet this target (see Figure
3.2.1). The main causes of
uncertainty are: continuous transport growth, continuing low energy
prices, the slow improvement of energy efficiency and the fact that
many of the measures in national programmes will not be completed
before 2000. Current measures are insufficient to prevent a further
increase in CO2 emissions after 2000 as a result of the
expected growth of production, consumption and transport. To achieve
the global quality objective, reductions in emissions by 1-2% per year
are necessary, to which the industrialised countries are expected to
make a reasonable contribution.

The ozone layer has been considerably
depleted worldwide, caused by emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons,
such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons. At present, the problem
is universally recognised and international negotiations on the
tightening of limitations (eg, of CFC production as proposed in the
Montreal protocol) have accelerated. In this regard, the European Union
is playing a pioneering role. Since the publication of the 5EAP, the
been tightened.

The production and consumption of CFCs show a
decreasing trend: an 80% reduction between 1986 and 1994 (see Figure
3.2.2). The 1994 target for
halons has been reached. It is uncertain whether the production of CFCs
will be stopped in 1995 as planned. The production of HCFCs (targeted
for complete phase out by 2015) has increased during the period
1986-1994 as a result of the substitution for previous uses of CFCs.
Despite current policy measures to phase out CFCs and other ozone
depleting substances, the ozone layer will continue to be depleted
until late into the 21st Century due to the long lifetime of chlorine
compounds in the atmosphere.

European andtransboundary scale

Acidification, combined with other forms of
environmental stress, increase the chances of damage to ecosystems by
devitalising forests and undermining the quality of water resources.
This process will continue due to deposition of sulphur and nitrogen
compounds. Sulphur emissions have been reduced considerably. Meanwhile,
NOx and ammonia (NH3) emissions have
stabilised.

The European Union has undertaken considerable action to reduce
emissions from various sources (eg, large combustion plants, vehicles,
etc). The effectiveness of these actions can be observed, although full
implementation is still underway. It is expected that SO2
emissions will continue to decrease and that the 5EAP will be achieved.
This is also true for the more stringent target agreed in the revised
UNECE Sulphur Protocol. Due to the introduction of the catalytic
converter for vehicles, NOx emissions will start to decline.
However, it is uncertain if the 2000 target will be met. Current
reduction plans of EU Member States will lead to a 20% reduction by
2000 (compared to 1985 levels) instead of the 30% target mentioned in
the 5EAP. The positive effects of end-of-pipe techniques will be
partially offset by traffic growth (passenger and freight).

Even though overall acid deposition levels have decreased (and this
will continue in the future, mainly due to sulphur reduction), critical
loads will still be exceeded in the more sensitive regions. In 1993,
deposition exceeded the 'critical acid loads' for ecosystems
in 34% of the total European area (for the EU this proportion is even
higher). Based on the current reduction plans of Member States, this
will decrease to 25% in 2000 (see Map
3.2.1).

The two main air quality problems - which occur throughout the EU -
are summertime and wintertime smog. Considerable improvements in recent
decades have been achieved. However, the current concentrations of
pollutants still significantly exceed health standards. Due to the
concentration of population and economic activity, major urban areas
experience the highest levels of pollution and exposure to health
risks. For example, it is estimated that in nearly three quarters of
major EU cities, WHO Air Quality Guidelines for SO2 and
particulate matter (PM) were exceeded at least once in a typical year,
giving rise to winter smog episodes (see Table 3.2.1) . PM
pollution, as emitted by vehicles, has been identified as one of the
key environment-health issues.

Table 3.2.1: Exceedances of WHO-Air Quality Guidelines on
city background locations in EU15 cities in 1990

Pollution
Type

Indicator

AQG
(ug m3)

Cities with observed exceedances
(%)

Effects

Short term effects

Summer Smog

O3

150 - 200 (hour)

84

Lung function decrements,
respiratory symptons

Winter Smog

SO2+PM

125+125(day)

74

Decreased lung function;
increased medicine use for susceptible children

Although overall emissions of air pollutants are declining, the
increase in emissions from road transport - which is a key sector for
air quality - will partially offset improvements. Despite the
implementation of policy measures, it is unlikely that the EU will meet
the VOC for 2000.

Due to a lack of information, it is difficult to assess progress
towards two other air pollution problems, dioxins and heavy metals.
Meeting the dioxin target is heavily dependent on progress in the
implementation of adequate abatement measures at a time when waste
incineration capacity (a key source of dioxins) is growing
significantly. There is considerable progress in the reduction of heavy
metals by the so-called North Sea countries. The reduction target for
1995 will be achieved by most countries, although copper, zinc and
chromium still require attention.

Regional scale

Waste management is important for several reasons. Sustainable use
of raw materials involves increased recycling of secondary materials.
Effective management, especially of hazardous wastes, prevents soil
pollution and reduces risks to human health. Energy recovery from waste
contributes to primary energy conservation. Waste prevention proved to
be difficult to tackle. Municipal waste generation per capita - one of
the key 5EAP target indicators - has shown a steady increase of about
20% between 1985-1993. However, considerable success has been achieved
in recycling of paper and glass - current recycling rates are almost
50%. The majority of municipal waste is disposed by landfill, although
this is declining and is being replaced by incineration (current
disposal rates are 57% and 23% respectively). Lack of data prevents a
full assessment of the hazardous waste situation, although this waste
category has higher risks for the environment.

Due to further economic growth and a lack of effective prevention
measures, municipal waste per capita will continue to grow (see Figure 3.2.3).
It will increase by 30% by 2000 compared with the 1985 level (the 5EAP
target is to maintain the 1985 level in 2000). Despite the Packaging
Directive, further improvements in recycling will be constrained by
recycling costs and the lack of markets for secondary materials. It is
expected that disposal by landfill will continue to decrease and
incineration will increase. This may have positive impacts on soil and
water pollution, but to prevent knock-on effects in terms of air
emissions, adequate legislation for emission control is a
prerequisite.

Urban environment problems do not have a Transboundary character,
but are ubiquitous throughout Europe. Many regional and global
environmental problems originate in cities. More than two-thirds of the
EU's population now live in urban areas. Environmental problems in
concentration areas tend to increase. Apart from traffic congestion and
air pollution - which are discussed above - the major urban
environmental stress is noise. A lack of open and green space, a lack
of infrastructure (eg, sewage treatment), disintegration of
infrastructure and housing stock, crime and other social problems are
also associated with large, poorly planned cities.

In large cities, the proportion of the population exposed to
unacceptable levels of noise is two to three times higher than the
national average. Transport, the main source of noise disturbance, is
currently exposing some 17% of the population in most EU countries to
noise levels higher than 65 dB(A). Due to accelerated traffic growth,
it is expected that this will increase, while policies aim to stabilise
present levels. Only with concerted local action, can the target be
reached.

The main threats to ground and surface water resources are
deterioration of the water quality and over-exploitation of water
reserves. On average, 17% of renewable water resources in the EU are
abstracted each year. Water abstraction rates increased by 35% between
1970 and 1985 and are predicted to continue to increase, in particular
within the agricultural sector in southern regions of Europe.

The majority of Europeans (65%) rely on groundwater for drinking
water purposes. This leads in many places to over exploitation of
aquifers, which results in the lowering of the watertable and
associated effects such as: salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers,
decreasing river flow and drying out of wetlands. The use of
groundwater for drinking water is threatened by the leaching of
pesticides (see Map 3.2.2) and
nitrates from agriculture. Nitrate and pesticide concentrations in
groundwater are increasing and are estimated to exceed the target in
more than 85% (of all Europe) and 75% (of EU) of agricultural land
respectively.

Due to significant investments in sewage treatment, most large
European rivers have shown signs of improved conditions over the last
decade. Emissions of oxygen-depleting substances and phosphorus have
decreased markedly (see Figure 3.2.4),
leading to improved oxygen levels and better conditions for aquatic
animals; the improvement has been greatest in north-western regions of
the EU. Despite a reduction in phosphorus emissions to surface waters,
eutrophication remains an issue of concern. As for groundwater, the
great majority of EU rivers (75%) show continuing increases in nitrate
concentrations due to intensification of agriculture. This raises the
potential for eutrophication in receiving seas.

Many current policy initiatives will require a significant
investment by Member States, but are expected to result in a
significant payback in terms of environmental quality by the year 2000.
Up to that time, it is likely that the quality of surface waters will
either remain at the present level or show a gradual improvement. With
regard to groundwaters, the impact of the Nitrates Directive and the
expected reduction in the use of pesticides may take longer to become
visible.

The degradation of coastal zones is caused by the accumulation of
pollutants from river catchment areas, direct pollution to seas, oil
spills, atmospheric deposition and coastal erosion and stress due to
tourism and fishing. The main pollutants affecting coastal zones
include: nutrients, heavy metals, chemicals, oil and hazardous waste
(Baltic and Mediterranean). Coastal zones also face eutrophication
caused by discharges of nutrients via rivers (Baltic and North Sea).
Most North Sea States have reduced phosphorus and heavy metals by about
50% between 1985 and 1995.

Environmental risks predominantly arise from industrial and nuclear
accidents, chemicals and natural hazards. Environmental damages from
accidents and natural disasters have risen consistently over the last
thirty years. The overall aims of policy in all fields of risk is to
reduce exposure to risk based on the precautionary principle. This has
been addressed through, for example: the reduction of the amount of
toxic substances in the environment, the prevention of major industrial
accidents ('Seveso' Directive), risk management of genetically modified
organisms (GMOs) and the implementation of safety standards to reduce
the risk of nuclear accidents. Concerns also arise from the number of
existing chemicals already in use (approximately 100,000 chemicals are
marketed in the EU), about which little is so far known about their
environmental impact and synergistic effects.

The main soil quality problems in Europe are erosion and pollution.
Soil as a natural resource has degraded and is causing concern in many
parts of the EU. Degradation might continue in the future, in spite of
Member States' programmes. Environmental policy and measures concerning
soil are limited, as is the available information on which to develop
policy. Apart from measures, EU policies are absent due to subsidiarity
considerations.

Soil erosion - especially in the Mediterranean zone - is caused by
deforestation and inadequate agricultural practices. Soil pollution can
have different origins: airborne acidification, excessive utilisation
of fertilisers and pesticides in agriculture, storage and disposal of
materials in industrial sites, disposal of domestic and industrial
wastes and mining operations.

Impacts on nature and biodiversity

Conservation of nature and biodiversity is
traditionally pursued by protecting areas and species. The Habitat
Directive, through the creation of a coherent European network of
natural and semi-natural sites (the NATURA 2000network), provides a potential mechanism for
increasing the total area of protected sites in the Union, as well as
for improving management and monitoring systems for these designated
areas. The current challenge for the Union and Member States is to
designate sites reflecting the variety of Europe's natural habitats,
and to show a willingness to contribute significantly to facilitating
the process.

Biodiversity in Europe is under stress from human impacts
from all sectors. The change of biodiversity leads to: a depletion of
natural genetic sources, disappearance of species, an increasing
vulnerability of ecosystems. A decrease in biodiversity also imposes
the possibility of long-term risks to food security. Natural habitats
such as hedgerows, open, natural and semi-natural grasslands and
wetlands are specifically under pressure and change continually. Many
plant and animal species are currently declining and threatened with
extinction (see Figure
3.2.5). Although Europe's area under
forest is increasing, this does not mean that forest as an ecosystem is
not to be considered as vulnerable. Patches of old forest are under
pressure from the forestry industry. Air pollution (which influences
all habitats) is also seriously damaging forests. In the southern part
of Europe, forest fires are a major problem. The composition of
habitats, especially forests, has changed due to the introduction of
non-indigenous species. In many areas, forests are no longer natural
ecosystems due to afforestation practices.

Figure 3.2.5: Average percentage
of threatened plants and animals

Source: Eurostat, 1995

Land use and habitat fragmentation are the major factors directly
affecting nature and biodiversity; however, pollution and other human
activities also give rise to multiple stresses (eg, acidification,
chemicals in the environment, disturbances in water availability and
nutrient cycles and introduction of new species). In spite of the
reductions in pressure that have been achieved, exceedances are still
above critical levels of ecosystems.

3.3 Environmental expenditures

Total environmental expenditure in the EU12 was about 63 billion ECU
in 1992. Expenditure on environmental protection has been increasing
steadily since 1985 at a rate of about 4% per annum, although since
1990 growth has been slower at 1% per annum (see Figure
3.3.1). Expenditure on wastewater
treatment measures accounts for the largest share of total
environmental expenditure (about 50%). Waste management is the next
most significant area of environmental spending (33%). Environmental
expenditure is expected to increase by about 50% between 1992 and 2000
as a result of stricter environmental policies, but also due to general
economic growth.

The overall impact of environmental policies on economic development
can be considered as minimal. OECD concluded that the current costs of
pollution control are only a small part of total costs in most sectors
and that nearly all Member States have introduced similar environmental
measures at roughly the same time. Environmental measures are not a
source of significant cost differentials among major competitors and
have marginal effects on overall trade between countries.

The potential effect of environmental regulation on the environment
industry (the provision of goods and services for environmental
protection activities) and on job creation is significant and shows an
upward trend. The implementation of clean (process-integrated)
technologies and energy and resource conservation measures (due to
climate change and waste recycling programmes respectively), can also
lead to financial savings.