South Florida`s Future Gets Vote Of Confidence

South Florida`s long-term economic outlook was given a vote of confidence in the most recent regional economic forecast by Citicorp`s Economic Forecast Service.

The long-term outlook for Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood and West Palm Beach/ Boca Raton was termed ``above average,`` while Miami`s future is forecast as merely ``average`` in the projection for the ``longer haul`` through 1987 and the rest of the `80s.

The project surveyed 25 U.S. metropolitan areas according to six indicators: population growth, growth of total personal income, growth of total employment, industrial growth, unemployment rate and building permits.

The West Palm Beach/Boca Raton area`s population was forecast to rise at close to four times the national rate, compared to Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood`s three times the U.S. average and Miami`s under-average population growth, according to the survey.

The Palm Beach County area`s real personal income is expected to grow 7 to 8 percent and then slow to 6 percent by 1987. Broward`s projection trails its northern neighbor`s by a percentage point in both cases, and Miami picks up the rear with a projected 3 to 5 percent growth rate before it`s forecast to decline to 2 percent with the expected `87 national slowdown.

West Palm/Boca`s residential construction is projected to remain strong as population and income growth stimulate housing demand, with continuing strong construction levels, and a projected slowdown during the latter 1980s. The Broward areas are projected to add 12,000 to 15,000 residential units per year while ``non-residential building should continue to be strong as Fort Lauderdale`s rapid-growth economy stimulates demand for new commercial space.`` And Miami is forecast to add 10,000 to 14,000 new units per year as ``Miami will continue to benefit with increasing ties to Latin America.``

``Further population inflows and increased tourism will provide vitality to the South Florida area,`` the report predicts through 1987. Miami`s job growth is predicted to rise 1.5 percent next year before easing due to an anticipated recession. But Miami housing starts are forecast to decline by 10 percent to about 12,000 by the end of next year, and fall still further in 1987.

It`s a brighter picture for Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood, with a 3 percent average employment growth forecast in 1986 before the expected `87 slowdown, and a slower -- but still better than `82 -- housing start and commercial construction picture by 1987.

And -- as pointed out in this space in past weeks -- everything`s coming up roses for Palm Beach County. ``The continued influx of retirees and tourists will continue to stimulate the area,`` the report says. Long-term job growth is forecast to rise at 3 percent and real personal income to increase by 6.5 percent -- outpacing the U.S. average by more than three percentage points. Next year and the following are forecast to be rough for housing starts and commercial construction, but they`re expected to at least match those of recent past years.

(BU)

Weekly Business -- responding to requests from readers and financial instutions alike -- has expanded its Data Bank listings on pages 30 and 31.

Where we formerly ran the money market and CD rates of just 30 banks and S&Ls, we have expanded that to 38 institutions. And we`ve expanded -- and enlarged the type -- of our mortgage listings.

A note in the Data Bank section explains the new listings. Hope you like our new look.