Pick Six Weekly: Is Matt Forte a good fantasy football pick?

Tuesday

Aug 24, 2010 at 12:01 AMAug 24, 2010 at 5:26 PM

By now, everyone’s either seen a highlight or read about Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s 89-yard TD run against Oakland last Saturday in preseason. People are probably thinking about jumping back on the bandwagon that so many, including myself, hopped off during last year’s sophomore slump. But should you?

Joey Baskerville

By now, everyone’s either seen a highlight or read about Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte’s 89-yard TD run against Oakland last Saturday in preseason.

People are probably thinking about jumping back on the bandwagon that so many, including myself, hopped off during last year’s sophomore slump.

But should you?

Remember, Forte has never rushed for four yards or more a carry, isn’t much of a goal-line back and last year could only muster up double-digit points against the weakest defenses in the league.

That’s excluding San Francisco in Week 10, when Jay Cutler was in check-down mode after the criticism he took for turnovers (yet somehow still managed to throw five picks in that game).

Forte did show some real burst, and even without that huge run last week, he still averaged five yards a carry (four carries, 20 yards).

There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the third-year back, including his very suspect offensive line, his role with Chester Taylor as a potential handcuff and the fact that offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s system isn’t very run-happy.

CBS’ senior fantasy writer, Dave Richard, has a graphic charting Martz’s passing dependence compared with the rest of the NFL from 1999-2008. Let’s just say, Martz likes the forward pass considerably more than the rest of the NFL.

Also, Forte’s game is predicated on wearing defensives down. He needs carries to do so, and judging by Marshall Faulk (averaged 237.4 carries with Martz from 1999-2003) and Frank Gore (240 carries in one season with Martz), Forte likely won’t sniff the 316 touches as he had in 2008.

Forte hasn’t had a season where he’s had less than 258 carries.

Not to mention, the Raiders were 29th in the NFL in stopping the run last year, so temper your expectations.

I’d still wait until after the third round to consider drafting Forte, and there are probably better options out there for you, depending on what positions haven’t been filled.

Pick Six: Best fantasy schedule

Last year, before Pix Six Weekly had a name, this column has had a common theme: It’s all about the matchups.

You can take a peak at the schedule prior to draft day when thinking of a pick, but most of us don’t take that into account because some players are match-up-proof.

It would be foolish to take a pass on drafting a guy like Chris Johnson because of a tough schedule. The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans are tied for the most difficult schedule, based on 2009 opponents’ records, according to ESPN.

But some of those fringe first-rounders’ and sleepers’ schedules could be the difference this year in taking a player high or letting him be someone else’s headache.

For this week’s Pick Six, I’ll evaluate six fantasy players’ schedule and see if they’re worth the first-round/sleeper attention they’ve been given by experts.

QB

Aaron Rodgers — Anyone not sure if Aaron Rodgers is a late first-rounder, consider the Green Bay Packers' schedule is ranked 22nd in the league for toughest schedule. Two games with the Bears and Detroit Lions and a game against the Atlanta Falcons will do that for you.

Chad Henne — With two games against the Buffalo Bills and one with Detroit, Oakland, Cleveland and Chicago, as well as the addition of Brandon Marshall, Henne’s got a chance to be a nice sleeper this year. Miami’s schedule is tied for 16th, thanks to Minnesota, Baltimore, Cincy and New England and the New York Jets twice.

RB

Michael Turner — The Atlanta Falcons’ schedule is ranked 20th, and this is why I think Turner will return to elite fantasy status. Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland. Like those match-ups? Plus the NFC South’s highest-ranked team in rush defense was the New Orleans Saints, which was 21st in the NFL. Tampa was dead last and Carolina was 22nd. Consider it a gift if Turner drops to you in the first round.

Justin Forsett — The Seattle Seahawk back needs to get his act together with Leon Washington breathing down for the starting spot, because he’d be missing out on a golden opportunity. St. Louis twice, San Diego, Denver, Chicago, Oakland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Carolina, Tampa Bay. That’s 10 games against porous rush defenses. If Seattle can stay in games, Forsett should have a breakout season.

WR

Andre Johnson — Receivers are difficult to evaluate simply because so much has to go well for them to get a reception. As stated above, the Texans have the most difficult schedule. I wouldn’t completely avoid drafting Johnson in the first round though. The Texans haven’t been awful in recent years, and even if they are this year, shootouts are a fantasy owner’s best friend.

Mike Wallace — The Pittsburgh Steelers have some line and quarterback issues. Still the schedule the Steelers have would lead you to believe Wallace will be a decent sleeper.

Having written all this, readers should still be cautious when considering the schedule. With parody, last year’s doormat could be this season’s contender.

Contact Joey Baskerville at jbaskerville@journalstandard.com or @jmark79 on Twitter.

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