FANTASY FOOTBALL 2011 - RB, WR, QB

Know when to Hold-em', know when to Fold-em'...Week-3

After two-weeks, we are tracking with quite possibly our best season start ever. We made a lot of great calls this week on Robert Meachem, Eric Decker, LeGarrette Blount, David Nelson, etc. As always, there were bad calls (we just want a 70/30 ratio good/bad, or better)...Donald Jones, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew.

There will be bad projections. Much of the time, it is just a weekly blip. Sometimes, the concept is just a few weeks ahead of its time. They can't all work out perfect. We constantly preach to friends and foes -- not to be too rash in Fantasy Football. Don't dump/bench top talent based on one bad week. We like to think of ourselves as very prudent making Fantasy Football evaluations. However, this is still a game...and is very much like the stock market. Situations change, events did unfold as expected. When something seems obvious, sometimes...you have to belly-up and admit a mistake and cut your losses.

There are some early assumptions that we had loaded into our computer analysis, that now has to change going forward. I would like to share a few of them:

1) We were wrong about Cam Newton's start to 2011.

We are anti-rookie QBs for Fantasy Football as a default. We don't care who the rookie QB is. Rookie QBs can be solid, like Sam Bradford last year, or Andy Dalton (who we love) this year. Solid isn't what we want in Fantasy Football, we want video game type numbers from our Fantasy Football QB. Cam Newton is putting up video game type numbers. This is NOT an endorsement of Cam Newton. We still have our doubts on him being top-tier. However, it is an admission...he is not an NFL disaster rookie situation. He's going to hold his own, and then some. We are not seeking Newton for our rosters, but we are changing Fantasy Football scoring projections of team-defenses facing him upcoming. We are also going to upgrade Steve Smith and Greg Olsen higher than where we had them.

We thought Newton would be an early season/all season disaster...that was wrong, time to change projections accordingly.

2) We were wrong about Reggie Bush

Quite frankly, this one p's me-off. This play didn't cost us much in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft, which is what part of the beauty of it was -- the bet that Miami would be crazy not to get Bush 15+ touches per game (air & ground). Furthermore, the bet that Daniel Thomas was not a capable feature RB (the Dolphins thought that too, thus bringing in Larry Johnson).

I'm watching various games today, and I am watching the way the Saints utilize Darren Sproles and the Chargers usage of Mike Tolbert in the passing game...then I am watching Reggie Bush on the sidelines as Chad Henne throws the ball all over the field to no one (18 incomplete passes to 12 completed), as the Dolphins go down in flames. I have no idea what goes through the minds of the Dolphins decision makers. From their bizarre owner, to interviewing Jim Harbaugh while still employing Tony Sparano, to not trading for Kyle Orton...now ultimately, why did you trade for Reggie Bush? Bush is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and yet the Dolphins only get him the ball up-the-middle. Why wouldn't you work in a play or two where you get him out in space? Why not line him up as a 3rd-4th WR on some packages and create miss-matches. Nope...just line Bush up in the backfield and then Henne never look at him, just Henne throwing to open grass.

I could stomp up and down with reasons as to how, and how not, Bush should be used -- but, what do I know is going on behind the scenes? However, I know what (I think) I see, and I can do the math -- bad organizational decision-making for months/years now...why would we expect different now? A kinda do-or-die game this week for the Dolphins franchise, but now two home losses in-a-row. The Dolphins hit the road for two weeks (CLE/SD), a BYE week, then the Jets. The Dolphins will be (1-4) or (0-5) and season over. Regardless, I have no idea how they are going to use Bush for the next few weeks. I hedged that they would try to ride him early, and I was wrong.

Bush cost us little, besides the pride of thinking he could be a cheap feature RB for 2011. Only a 5th-7th Round Fantasy Football Draft pick typically. A nice Week-1, mostly on my clients bench in Week-2. Now going to be jettisoned into waivers or trade in traditional 12-team Fantasy Football leagues.

We have blasted Daniel Thomas, and he looked very good this past week...which aggravates this more. We are definitely not sold on Thomas at all, but right now...we're a disaster calling the Miami RB situation, so I'm out. Maybe, I'll scoop up Larry Johnson, or Lex Hilliard, or Larry Czonka on waivers.

3) Never bet against Kenny Britt

We review tape of Kenny Britt, and nothing seems to grab/excite us. It's always a "lucky" TD, it seems to us. Last week, he had an 80-yard TD...and it was a very fluky/lucky TD. We see an inordinate amount of DBs falling down, or quiet all game and then a late TD, etc. However, the story always ends the same...Britt scores a TD. Britt has a TD in 7 of his last 9 meaningful games (not counting Week-17 of 2010). Britt had lower receptions and targets per game last year, but he is up like 75%+ on targets and receptions year-over-year. No more fighting it with logic...the overriding logic is Britt = TDs.

Part of the Fantasy Football game is adjusting and adapting to situations smartly and swiftly, not holding onto personal bias or fear of being wrong. My old boss used to say -- "fail fast, and move on."

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