That’s one well endowed weather map if you know what I mean. And I think you do…

We're keeping a close eye on potential tropical or subtropical cyclone activity early next week over the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model indicates up to a 30% chance for the formation of a trop. depression. Nonetheless, this will be a weak storm and heavy rain is the main risk. pic.twitter.com/l8yERH9S5t

Here’s the rundown from Earther, but to be honest, I was just looking for an excuse to post the strangely suggestive weather map tweet…

We’re still a few weeks out from the official start of hurricane season, but tropical cyclones don’t care much for regulation. That’s why there’s a small chance one could spin up off the Florida Panhandle this week.

A large, low pressure area filled with clouds and thunderstorms has developed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it’s marching slowly northward toward the west coast of Florida. As it moves across warm Gulf waters and gathers strength over the next 48 hours, it has about a 30 percent chance of getting organized into a cyclone.

Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson told Earther that in all likelihood, any cyclone that does form would be classified a tropical or subtropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. But, he added, there’s a “small chance” of a named tropical or subtropical storm, one featuring wind speeds of 39—73 mph.

“I wouldn’t rule it out, it’s just on the lower side of the probabilities,” Henson said, noting that water temperatures are a bit marginal right now.

Regardless of how fierce the storm gets, Floridians are going to feel it. The entire Florida Peninsula could be in for heavy rainfall this week, with eastern Florida around Kennedy Space Center expected to see up to seven inches of precipitation. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing—central and South Florida are coming off a particularly dry dry season, with more than 30 percent of the state in moderate to severe drought as of May 8.

https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Adam L Silvermanhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAdam L Silverman2018-03-15 21:38:162018-03-15 21:38:16Mid To Late Evening Open Thread: The Crossdressing Attorneys Of Arendelle To The Rescue!

So, this morning, I’m having my coffee, catching up on the Snarkosphere, etc., when I notice an alert on my iPhone screen:

Never heard of a tsunami hitting the west coast of Florida, but shit, the world quit making sense a while back, so maybe? I clicked through to the Accuweather app, which had the little red exclamation point and the same message on the app screen: tsunami warning for my (low-lying, coastal) area.

I mentally reviewed the location of my husband and daughter (higher ground, both, insofar as there IS higher ground on this accursed peninsula) and started figuring out how to single-handedly catch and crate the chickens and then drag the dog and a crate of chickens up to the roof. Or perhaps chance fleeing in my car with the dog and chickens in the cabin with me? Neither seemed a good option.

But before putting either plan into action, I figured I’d better go straight to the horse’s mouth and make sure this warning wasn’t some Accuweather fuckery and that the U.S. National Weather Service was really predicting a tsunami right here in Cockroach Acres. Turns out, nah:

I appreciate getting severe weather alerts when an actual threat exists, just as I’m sure the folks in Hawaii are glad there’s a way to alert them of incoming ballistic missiles. But maybe we need to take a step back and rethink how these alerts are disseminated.

In Hawaii, perhaps it shouldn’t be possible for one person to fuck up and push the wrong button and send the population into a panic. And maybe the National Weather Service should work more closely with the weather apps that are authorized to push NWS alerts to make sure “this is a test” is part of the alert message when testing the system. Just saying.

https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Betty Crackerhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgBetty Cracker2018-02-06 10:16:422018-02-06 10:17:24This Is Only a Test

My dogs are quietly outraged because I haven’t taken them for a walk in several days. Every time I put on shoes or pull on a sweater, they rush to the door in anticipation. But it’s been too damn cold for walks, and they know it too: When we let them out in the yard, they’re banging on the door to come back inside within five minutes.

Other critters in the state are handling the cold snap in their accustomed ways. Here’s a herd of manatees swarming the entrance to Three Sisters Springs in Crystal River, Florida, which is one of the best places on the planet, IMO:

The water flowing from the springs is around 72 degrees year-round. In the summer, that feels heart-stoppingly cold. But on a cold day like this, jumping into the springs feels like sliding into a warm bath. That warmth is what the manatees are after.

Next week, it’ll warm up, and the manatees will venture out of the canals in search of more plentiful vegetation. And I’ll start walking my dogs again.

Hurricane Maria hammers Puerto Rico with force not seen in ‘modern history’

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Hurricane Maria churned across Puerto Rico Wednesday as the most powerful storm to strike the island in more than 80 years, knocking out power and water to nearly the entire population and leaving people huddled in buildings to ride out powerhouse winds that have already left death and devastation across the Caribbean.

“On the forecast track, [Maria] would be the most destructive hurricane in Puerto Rico history,” tweeted Eric Blake, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center.

The storm first slammed the coast near Yabucoa at 6:15 a.m. as a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds — the first Category 4 storm to directly strike the island since 1932. By midmorning, Maria had fully engulfed the 100-mile-long island as winds snapped palm trees, peeled off rooftops, sent debris skidding across beaches and roads, and cut power to nearly the entire island.

He posted a perfunctory tweet about the imminent hurricane strike last night, similar and in close proximity to the tweet about the Mexico City earthquake. But Trump’s approach to this unfolding disaster is nothing like the multiple tweets he sent out about the hurricanes that hit Florida and Texas and the pains he took to be seen as engaged during those events.

Does he not know Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory? Does he not give a shit because its inhabitants are mostly non-white? Both?

We’re home safe and sound. I drove up and checked the house around 11:00 AM this morning. Power was on – I don’t think it ever went out. And no damage to the house at all. So I went back to my brother’s, loaded everything into the car, got the girls in, and we’re now home chilling.

A huge thank you to my younger brother, sister in law, my nephews, and their German shepherd for providing a port in the storm!

I checked with BettyC this AM when I got up and she said:

Everyone okay but it got pretty bad here. Some structural damage. No sleep for 48 hours. Kinda trapped with no gas, no power, etc. But we’ll be okay. Got food, water, our health!

This is at the place they evacuated too. So the good news is they’re all okay. I can tell you that they’re working both hard and fast to get power back on. So hopefully they’ll be back on the grid shortly.