I don't know if it's necessary. I guess it depends on necessary for what? I think if Jeremy skates clean no one will beat him even if they have a quad. If Brandon skates clean then probably Armin would need his quad to edge him out. I'm just guessing and part of it is based on reputation, as I think the judges might need a bit more time to figure out what kinds of PCS to give Armin, etc.

But it's great to have new talent show up like that

ETA: Adam is an interesting question. The judges seem to like him and he might just want to go clean. I mean, if he's clean and Brandon or Ryan mess up, Adam's on the podium. He should decide based on his consistency at practice.

I think Nationals goes like this: the key for the Contenders is the Short Program; the key for the non-Contenders is the Free Skate.

Well said. ITA. It will be very exciting!
Although I think it's also important that the newcomers on the cusp of medaling/making the final flight don't bomb the SP as well because if they end up in the penultimate warm up or even lower for the FS, their PCS will likely be quite a bit lower than they will be if they skate in the final flight, regardless of how well they skate. We saw at the JGPF that Christina and Yasmin both got lowballed in PCS in the FS even though they both skated fairly well in that segment after bombing the SP and having to skate in the first warm up. A similar SP at nationals for either girl could make the difference between, say a 4th place finish and an 8th place finish, regardless of how well the FS goes.

Under the NJS, if you are a Contender, you want to build yourself enough of a cushion in the SP so you can afford a mistake or two in the FS and still place well. If you're not, then you should position yourself well in the SP, and then shock everyone in the FS.

You make a good point about program component scores. However, does that or does that not offset the increased jitters that occur due to being in striking distance of a Medal? Increased jitters = less relaxation = less confidence = more mistakes in FS.

I could definitely see Ashley skating well - the last time she was out of the spotlight as a "frontrunner" (2008), she skated two clean programs with triple-triples in both, finishing second in both segments of the competition.

She wasnt totally clean. She made a silly little mistake, stepping out of a double at the end of a combination. She would have probably won the gold without that mistake. As it was she was royally robbed that year IMO. There is no way an almost clean Wagner with a triple lutz-triple loop in both program should have ever finished below Flatt. And Nagasu had too many mistakes in the long so Wagner should have beaten her too.

is that the 3-3 Ashley's been trying to get back this season? I wonder why Ashley lost her 3-3. Her body doesn't seem to have changed at all the much since 2008. Nature has been kind. If anything, she looks better than ever

Ashley's kinda the dark horse in the race. I find myself forgetting to count her in but she could do very well and be the surprise.

is that the 3-3 Ashley's been trying to get back this season? I wonder why Ashley lost her 3-3. Her body doesn't seem to have changed at all the much since 2008. Nature has been kind. If anything, she looks better than ever

Ashley's kinda the dark horse in the race. I find myself forgetting to count her in but she could do very well and be the surprise.

No, the 3-3 Ashley has been trying this season is flip-toe, and she used to do flip-loop (or flutz-loop? ). The one thing I can maybe think of as to why she lost the 3-3 was that didn't she used to be not very flexible? Working on flexibility in spins and spirals can loosen up tight muscles which can make it harder for one to jump. She's also probably grown a couple inches since 2008.

No, the 3-3 Ashley has been trying this season is flip-toe, and she used to do flip-loop (or flutz-loop? ). The one thing I can maybe think of as to why she lost the 3-3 was that didn't she used to be not very flexible? Working on flexibility in spins and spirals can loosen up tight muscles which can make it harder for one to jump. She's also probably grown a couple inches since 2008.

it was the flutz loop. I think she was pretty much as flexible in 08 as she is now. I don't know about that. I was thinking maybe she just kept getting edge calls on it. although she still gets edge calls on her lutz so what's the difference?

She actually attempted and rotated the triple flip-triple toe at COR this year in her SP, but it was two-footed so she had -GOEs. She did, however, land a double axel-triple toe in her LP at that event, so it is possible for her to land it.