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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

I can buy the suit on Wednesday using my credit card and pay interest on the charge.

I can buy the suit on Friday and pay the higher price.

Liquidity:

I saved money from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

I buy the suit for the lower price.I pay no interest.I earn interest on the money I saved from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

As Eloi Papillon, a character in the novel St. Lawrence Blues (Un Joualonais sa Joualonie) by the gifted French Canadian author Marie-Claire Blais, said, "Credit is the poor man's illusion of wealth" (C'est le pauvre homme de crédit l'illusion de la richesse.)

It began with flash mobs. Then came the Arab Spring. Now OWS. In addition, only a few years ago, President Obama used social media to enhance his campaign and to attract younger voters. John McCain? He lost.

They decided to talk about doing what they should have done in the first place.

These are the leaders. Oh, boy!

Further reports: The ECB has thus far refused to intervene. Why? Jean-Claude Trichet had a deep concern for his legacy. Too late!

With the new arrangement, if it is implemented—but more on that later—will give Madame Lagarde a larger role. Now, perhaps Madame will not feel the pressure to ingratiate her self with Angela Merkel.

The ECB is now considering the larger efforts; some members anyway. Perhaps this means that some have more intelligence than a 5 lb bag of store brand cheese doodles. (2.27kg)

Sarkozy is eager for the new deal among the EuroCrats to be implemented. However, Angela Merkel wants to drag the process out—still unrepentant. Desolé. Remember what I said before? “…if it is implemented…”

Chancellor Merkel embraces the pretext of seeking consensus. Mind you, the inability to seek consensus in any reasonable time-frame is almost impossible. That is one of the causes of the problem in the first place.

Chancellor Merkel is concerned that non-Euro members don’t feel marginalised. This is the EuroZone—not a Nursery School. I am only going to imagine The Chancellor has been schooled by experts in American Marketing Strategies in advance of her attending

the meeting with President Obama.“Oh, yes, Mr. President.I don’t want the other nations to feel marginalised and low self-esteem.”

Thank you, Angela Merkel.

Now, what has brought Germany around to everyone else’s way of thinking? Is it the fact that the EuroZone is on the Brink of Disaster? No. It is the fact that the disaster is now washing up onto German Shores. That woke the DeutscheCrats real fast. Now maybe they will ask Chancellor Merkel to resign.

The euphemism has not effected Europe alone. The Wall Street Journal says “Berlin” when in means “Merkel”.

Monti takes over Italy. Borrowing costs rise. People blame Monti and not the 50% discount Merkel granted to Bond investors.

Of course, no disaster would be complete without the Economists.

Economists say the ECB can do more legally. Okay. We agree.

“But wait, there’s more.”

Economists have said:

Large Bond buys by the U.S. Federal Reserve and The Bank of England haven’t eroded their political independence. Here goes:

U.S. Federal Reserve. Operative Word(s): U.S.

The Bank of England. Operative Word: England.

The ECB. Operative Word: European.

If I caught that, everyone caught that. Why bother engaging in the pretext, pretense, and, well, academic flummery? You may be correct. However, how will we know?

“But wait, there’s more.”

“ECB loath to take actions that could spark a political backlash against it in Germany, the Euro’s most powerful member.” Maybe too powerful, eh?

New EuroPact Idea: Ask Merkel to leave office or ask Germany to leave the EuroUnion.

“Nothing for nothing,” as my Mom used to say. In other words, “The Price of Germany is too high a Price for German Participation.

If the EuroCrats threaten to kick Germany out, what are they going to do? Take their ball and go join another EuroUnion? Can I seriously suggest that? No; but the EuroCrats can—and should. What would that cause? Don’t worry. It won’t get that far. Germany will ask Chancellor Merkel to step down and go home. Nicely, of course.

The best part of all this is the question, why is Germany willing to work with the ROE? (Rest of Europe) Because the Crisis Hit Berlin.

Papandreou stepped down.

Berlusconi stepped down.

Now, perhaps, it is time for Merkel to step down.

The headline: Time Runs Short for Solution to EuroCrisis. Someone tell Chancellor Merkel…after time runs out!

Sunday, November 20, 2011

China has an army. Over the years estimates have ranged from 100 million soldiers to 250 million soldiers. This is not a public jobs programme. However, this may not be for attacking other nations. This army may be for civil defence and preserving civilian order in a time of crisis. Why?

Take a look at a recent news item. A cyber attack on a Springfield, Ill. public water utility resulted in the destruction of one of its pumps, according to a security expert.

Experts reported that several ip numbers on the computers files originated in Russia. This is not an accusation by the Security Forces. Hacking may well have been the activity of a teenager somewhere in the US or anywhere else in the world. Consideration was also given to the possibility that this was a "test run".

However, the most telling statement was that the facility computers were not designed for security. That speaks volumes. Our schools are not designed for security. Our airports were not designed for security. All were designed on the assumption of civility. The civility that existed then. That was then. This is now. Back to China.

Throughout China, people are capable of surviving on rice and burning candles for light. A bicycle is adequate transportation. Then there are the big cities.

The Large Military, despite all the marching in formation, more likely is being prepared to keep cities functioning and the population fed in the event of a global crisis. Food, Water, Fuel.

Now the question is why? Is it the old Slim Fairview canard, "It's better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it?" China, with 6,000 years of history and the revered wisdom of the wise throughout their history, has NOT been waiting for me to come along.

In the event of a technological cataclysm, China is better prepared to endure greater hardships for greater lengths of time than people in the West. They are quite prepared to return to "analogue" until "digital" returns.

Are we as prepared?

We are trying to bolster security. We may have "disaster control" however, how well prepared are we to live in a powered-down society?

Friday, November 11, 2011

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats. Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury. Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics: You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution. Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth.

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity. However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal. Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.) Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme. Go to China for investors. Go to Brazil for investors. Go to the Petrostates for investors. That is a Ponzi Scheme. I don't hear that being talked about anymore. Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news. Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole.

Still, I am most optimistic. And I believe I should be optimistic. Why? Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on. Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing. In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?Did it work?No?Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned. Berlusconi resigned. Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory." I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.

The latest reports out are that back in the mists of time, the fact that Greek debt was higher than reported and that prognosticators were saying this could lead to a default at some time in the future, were met with vehement denials and great acrimony.

"You show me disrespect. I got empowerment and dignity. I got an entitlement. Gimme something." [sic]

"Positive reinforcement of negative behaviour is a disincentive to improve." Slim Faiview. The time for stern measures was then. The EuroCrats failed. They were bullied.

Now that disaster has befallen Greece, Europe, Asia, The World, The EuroCrats are attempting to save face by taking stern measures.

Ineffective, ineffectual, but stern. And, too, they are clutching retentively to their ideologies like a two year old with his hands down his nappy.

You cannot have a solution that does not include economic development.

You cannot have a solution that does not increase the middle-class.

"The rise or fall of the middle class is a leading indicator of a nations future." [Success or Failure] The Quotations of Slim Fairview.

Still, the EuroCrats will not budge. This may be trite but it is true: They are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Berlusconi to resign. Markets up. Denial. Market down. When € 500 billion, tell you to go, you go. However, first there must be talk. Rumours. Denials. Pledges. Indignation. (Righteous or otherwise.) Accusations. Recriminations. Finally, a Sanctimonious Submitting of his Resignation--with deep regret. And a nasty insinuation about his critics and the opposition. I apologise if this seems harsh. However, we've seen it before--all too often.

Meanwhile, the Greek Parliament (Critical of the US) is emulating the US Congress in handling serious debt crisis matters. To assuage their bruised egos, the EuroCrats are comparing themselves (Contrasting) favourably to the US. That must offer some satisfaction. No solutions but some satisfaction nonetheless.

The only new visions the EuroCrats have embraced is to move from a failed policy and procedure of pursuing austerity with celerity and no mechanism for growth (rather stifling growth) and repeated larger doses of a medication that harms more than it hurts the patient.

There are some people who, when confronted by the consequences of their actions, will coagulate like white corpuscles to defend the body against the medication designed to heal the illness.” –Slim Fairview

That is what the EuroCrats are doing. Fighting the medication that will heal the illness.

The next step the EuroCrats are in the midst of taking: A Ponzi Scheme. Now that investors have lost half their investment, the EuroCrats are going to China for investors; to Brazil for investors; to the Petrostates for investors. Call it what you will. Define it any way you choose. This is a Ponzi Scheme.

If you are not laughing I will assume you understand the severity of the situation.

Instead of describing my blog as Commentary, let me say that it is more prescriptive than descriptive. But don't bother listening to me. Everybody always doesn't listen to me.

That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to someone who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.

Greek is suffering an economic crisis. Italy is looking to cut spending. There seems to be an epidemic of austere proportions.

Germany is suggesting that private sector investors bear some of the burden of their speculation. The scolds are everywhere but we don’t see much in standard practices when it comes to analysis. We have experts galore, but few agree.

In the US, rising energy costs are seen as a problem that can be solved by summer. Only a few months ago, the doomsayers were predicting $5 a gallon gas by summer. Gas prices are declining. For now.

China is feeling the impact of growth. The Arab spring is turning into a very hot summer.

All agree that there are difficulties. All agree that the problems may be around for a while. Some have solutions. None seem viable, practicable, or sustainable and most of what we read and hear is descriptive not prescriptive.

Hence:

The world can no longer afford to play a zero sum game. For a while, this was the joint policy of US – Soviet relations. (First strike capability, SALT treaties, détente.) NATO, as evidenced by the Libyan Operation, seems more like a Maginot Line.

Therefore, a global initiative is mandatory. It is compulsory.

It is intuitively obvious to the casual observer that an energy crisis is coming. Increased competition for oil is what is causing prices to go up at the pump. Not our failure to drive hybrids or use mercury vapor bulbs rather than incandescent bulbs.

Nuclear power can no longer be seen as a plan for the future. Not unless you are planning for a disasters. Such plans are intended to prevent disasters, not cause them. You can have, tsunamis at the coast, floods along the rivers, fires in the forests, and if all else fails—earthquakes.

On my blog, I wrote Memo to Big Oil. I also wrote; Nuclear Energy has lost its lustre but not its glow. These are admonitions and cautionary tales. Read them. Heed them. The latter is a definite scolding of the US failure to embrace and pursue solar power over the past 50 years, and a seeming refusal to embrace and pursue it over the next 50 years.

At http://slideshare.net/slimfairview I posted two PowerPoint Presentations. Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America and The Future of the G 20 in Good Times and Bad.

Each is a moderately concise vision of a.) How companies around the world can do a better job of going global and b.) A scenario for global disaster and the means to prevent it. Take the time to review each.

On my blog, http://slimviews.blogspot.com/ I have posted numerous monographs explaining the fallacies and failures of Western Diplomacy in the Middle East. No sooner than I make a case, my point becomes evident by way of the unfolding events.

The EuroCrats are quibbling while the Greek debt crisis grows larger. There seems to be no strategic planning—or non-strategic planning for that matter. It would almost seem that Economic Development is something for discussion among the volunteers at a small town Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Committee.

The 21st Century seems to be carrying forward the lust for symbolic gestures over substantive gains that hearken not to the last decade but to previous centuries.

Corporate business leaders have given precedence to the process after coming up with a plan. The one thing they’ve forgotten is The Project. That too has been covered in my writing.

If we are serious about the future—serious about having a future—we should get started rather quickly.

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About Me

Armed only with an analytical mind and the ability to speak in metaphors, I attempt to explain the events of the day as I view them through the magic glasses my parents gave me over 50 years ago. Regards, Slim