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Beginning with Week 1 today, WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.
The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win).
Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 1 (9/5/09).>

Game of the Week: #5 Alabama 20 vs. #12 Virginia Tech 12
Two of our top 12 teams open the season in primetime at the Georgia Dome. With great defenses on both teams, do not expect much scoring. Alabama returns nine starters from a defense that only allowed 14.3 points-per-game in 2008, while Virginia Tech brings back seven starters from a defense that gave up just 16.7 points-per-game. The Crimson Tide is just a little bit better than the Hokies are at each position on defense. Virginia Tech sophomore running back Darren Evans may have been enough to neutralize that advantage, but he was just lost for the year due to a torn ACL. As even and as tough as these teams look, it may take a special teams or defensive touchdown to score enough points to decide victory. Alabama gets what it needs to pull off the victory, winning 79.4% of the 10,000 simulations and by an average score of 20-12.

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

Citadel @ North Carolina

95.0

5-35

Jacksonville State @ Georgia Tech

95.0

5-50

Middle Tennessee @ Clemson

95.0

7-27

Richmond @ Duke

93.4

7-26

William & Mary @ Virginia

92.0

9-23

Northeastern @ Boston College

90.7

9-24

South Carolina @ North Carolina State

81.1

10-21

Miami (FL) @ Florida State

70.4

13-21

Baylor @ Wake Forest

23.9

26-18

Alabama @ Virginia Tech

20.6

20-12

Brigham Young @ Oklahoma

95.0

19-44

Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska

95.0

13-38

Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas

95.0

4-67

North Dakota @ Texas Tech

95.0

9-47

Northern Colorado @ Kansas

95.0

9-46

Massachusetts @ Kansas State

86.7

8-24

North Dakota State @ Iowa State

84.4

13-29

Georgia @ Oklahoma State

83.1

27-42

New Mexico @ Texas A&M

48.2

20-21

Colorado State @ Colorado

44.5

20-20

Indiana State @ Louisville

95.0

8-34

Liberty @ West Virginia

95.0

5-51

Wofford @ South Florida

95.0

8-39

Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh

95.0

6-37

Cincinnati @ Rutgers

64.5

21-29

Minnesota @ Syracuse

10.0

24-12

Akron @ Penn State

95.0

9-43

Montana State @ Michigan State

95.0

6-32

Navy @ Ohio State

95.0

8-32

Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin

95.0

11-40

Northern Iowa @ Iowa

95.0

5-44

Towson @ Northwestern

93.7

7-26

Eastern Kentucky @ Indiana

85.0

10-24

Missouri @ Illinois

72.1

26-34

Toledo @ Purdue

56.8

13-16

Western Michigan @ Michigan

41.5

21-20

Alcorn State @ Southern Miss

95.0

8-43

Appalachian State @ East Carolina

95.0

7-34

Northwestern State @ Houston

95.0

7-51

Southern Illinois @ Marshall

91.7

8-28

Samford @ UCF

82.4

8-19

Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Methodist

73.8

12-21

Buffalo @ UTEP

67.8

17-26

Rice @ UAB

46.8

26-28

Tulsa @ Tulane

7.0

36-17

Mississippi @ Memphis

5.0

48-10

Nevada @ Notre Dame

60.5

23-28

Villanova @ Temple

85.7

8-22

North Texas @ Ball State

84.1

12-28

Coastal Carolina @ Kent State

80.7

11-26

Army @ Eastern Michigan

38.5

15-14

Troy @ Bowling Green

36.5

22-18

Connecticut @ Ohio

24.3

18-12

Kentucky @ Miami (OH)

13.6

18-7

Nicholls State @ Air Force

95.0

6-40

Utah State @ Utah

95.0

6-36

Sacramento State @ UNLV

93.7

10-30

Weber State @ Wyoming

82.7

9-21

Idaho State @ Arizona State

95.0

8-32

Maryland @ California

95.0

8-33

Portland State @ Oregon State

95.0

7-44

San Jose State @ USC

95.0

4-55

Central Michigan @ Arizona

85.0

14-28

San Diego State @ UCLA

78.1

11-24

LSU @ Washington

5.0

48-8

Stanford @ Washington State

5.0

39-9

Charleston Southern @ Florida

95.0

3-74

Missouri State @ Arkansas

95.0

7-38

Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt

95.0

6-30

Western Kentucky @ Tennessee

95.0

4-40

Jackson State @ Mississippi State

88.7

7-24

Louisiana Tech @ Auburn

22.9

23-15

Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State

95.0

6-33

Southern University @ Louisiana-Lafayette

87.7

10-28

California-Davis @ Fresno State

95.0

6-32

Central Arkansas @ Hawaii

79.4

13-26

Idaho @ New Mexico State

74.1

11-22

Oregon @ Boise State

48.2

25-26

Week 1 Standings

Conference

Team

Abs Record

Exp Record

Atlantic Coast

Boston College

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Clemson

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Duke

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Florida State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Georgia Tech

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Virginia

1 - 0

1 - 0

Atlantic Coast

Maryland

0 - 1

0 - 1

Atlantic Coast

Miami (FL)

0 - 1

0 - 1

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

0 - 1

0 - 1

Atlantic Coast

Wake Forest

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big 12

Baylor

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Iowa State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Kansas State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Kansas

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Nebraska

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Oklahoma State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Oklahoma

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Texas Tech

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Texas

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big 12

Colorado

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big 12

Missouri

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big 12

Texas A&M

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big East

Connecticut

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

Louisville

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

Pittsburgh

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

Rutgers

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

South Florida

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

West Virginia

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big East

Cincinnati

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big East

Syracuse

0 - 1

0 - 1

Big Ten

Illinois

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Indiana

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Iowa

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Michigan State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Minnesota

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Northwestern

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Ohio State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Penn State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Purdue

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Wisconsin

1 - 0

1 - 0

Big Ten

Michigan

0 - 1

0 - 1

Conference USA

East Carolina

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Houston

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Marshall

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Rice

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Southern Methodist

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Southern Miss

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Tulsa

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

UCF

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

UTEP

1 - 0

1 - 0

Conference USA

Memphis

0 - 1

0 - 1

Conference USA

Tulane

0 - 1

0 - 1

Conference USA

UAB

0 - 1

0 - 1

Independents (FBS)

Army

1 - 0

1 - 0

Independents (FBS)

Notre Dame

1 - 0

1 - 0

Independents (FBS)

Navy

0 - 1

0 - 1

Independents (FBS)

Western Kentucky

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Ball State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mid-American

Kent State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mid-American

Temple

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mid-American

Western Michigan

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mid-American

Akron

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Bowling Green

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Buffalo

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Central Michigan

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Eastern Michigan

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Miami (OH)

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Northern Illinois

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Ohio

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mid-American

Toledo

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mountain West

Air Force

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

Colorado State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

New Mexico

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

UNLV

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

Utah

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

Wyoming

1 - 0

1 - 0

Mountain West

Brigham Young

0 - 1

0 - 1

Mountain West

San Diego State

0 - 1

0 - 1

Pacific-10

Arizona State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

Arizona

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

California

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

Oregon State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

Oregon

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

Stanford

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

UCLA

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

USC

1 - 0

1 - 0

Pacific-10

Washington State

0 - 1

0 - 1

Pacific-10

Washington

0 - 1

0 - 1

Southeastern

Alabama

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Arkansas

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Florida

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Kentucky

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

LSU

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Mississippi State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Mississippi

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Tennessee

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Vanderbilt

1 - 0

1 - 0

Southeastern

Auburn

0 - 1

0 - 1

Southeastern

Georgia

0 - 1

0 - 1

Southeastern

South Carolina

0 - 1

0 - 1

Sun Belt

Arkansas State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette

1 - 0

1 - 0

Sun Belt

Troy

1 - 0

1 - 0

Sun Belt

Florida Atlantic

0 - 1

0 - 1

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Monroe

0 - 1

0 - 1

Sun Belt

Middle Tennessee

0 - 1

0 - 1

Sun Belt

North Texas

0 - 1

0 - 1

Western Athletic

Fresno State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Western Athletic

Hawaii

1 - 0

1 - 0

Western Athletic

Louisiana Tech

1 - 0

1 - 0

Western Athletic

New Mexico State

1 - 0

1 - 0

Western Athletic

Boise State

0 - 1

0 - 1

Western Athletic

Idaho

0 - 1

0 - 1

Western Athletic

Nevada

0 - 1

0 - 1

Western Athletic

San Jose State

0 - 1

0 - 1

Western Athletic

Utah State

0 - 1

0 - 1

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!