Six Billion Served

You've seen them before, those clocks counting down the minutes
and seconds to Y2K. But what about the lesser-known clock counting
down to WP6B? Like many a stepchild, this one, monitored by the
U.S. Census Bureau, isn't getting the attention it deserves, even
though it will strike 12 long before Dick Clark and his ball take
cover in Times Square.

So just what is WP6B? It's the acronym for World Population 6
Billion, a global milestone that's coming faster than you might
think. On July 17, at approximately 8:45 p.m., the world population
is expected to cross the 6 billion mark. But it isn't likely that
there will be a worldwide party to celebrate.

In the past year, the world population has grown by more than 76
million people. That's just shy of the population of Vietnam, the
14th-most-populated country on the planet. The good news is that
the net increase is on the decrease, and has been since 1989, when
annual growth topped out at more than 86 million. The bad news is
that, at the current rate of growth, even accounting for a
continual decrease in the growth rate, the world population is
headed for double digits within 50 years.

"It's well within the world's reach to stabilize the population
in the foreseeable future. The issue is to not postpone it," says
Joseph Chamie, director of the United Nations population division.
"If you wait 20 more years, the problem will be extremely more
difficult to deal with."

The United Nations predicts that the population of the world
will stabilize at about 11.6 billion some time around the year
2200. But getting to zero population growth will be complicated.
"Population is not just about size," Chamie says.

Age, AIDS, international migration, and health are all aspects
that have a profound effect on the raw numbers. Take age, for
example. Even with a replacement fertility rate of 1, which most of
the industrialized world currently has, the population can still
continue to rise as life spans increase. The opposite is true with
AIDS. As many as 24 million Africans will be HIV-positive by 2000,
according to UNAIDS, a consortium of international health
organizations.

While an Armageddon-like asteroid probably won't cause the
earth's population to stabilize, neither will an ultra-widespread
virus like Ebola or AIDS, Chamie contends. Instead, stabilization
will occur because people make a conscious decision to have fewer
children. The same forces that caused lower fertility rates in
industrialized nations-urbanization, increased education, lower
mortality, the changing status of women in society, and smaller
living quarters-are now present worldwide, regardless of religion
or background. For those who doubt Chamie, he points to the world's
Catholics, who currently have the lowest fertility rates.

Demographers call the process by which a population experiences
a decline in mortality and a subsequent decline in fertility the
"demographic transition." As a country goes through such a
demographic transition (after mortality rates decrease, but before
fertility rates drop), it experiences enormous population growth.
Most countries at least double or triple their numbers before
finally stabilizing. Although it's a silent revolution, Chamie
says, demographic transition has been responsible for the greatest
increase in population in the shortest period of time the earth has
ever seen or probably will ever see again. Five developing
countries today are responsible for more than 50 percent of the
world's increase in population: India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan,
and Nigeria.

While Chamie is optimistic about stabilization, he acknowledges
that major changes will take place as a result of the dramatic rise
in the world population. "America's stability in the world will
become of increasing concern as populations grow abroad," he says.
"National borders are not sufficient to isolate the problem [of
growing populations]." By 2050, demographers predict Africa's
population will be more than three times greater than that of
Europe's, and India will surpass China as the most populated
country on earth. "For demographers this is the most exciting
period to be living-1950 to 2000 is the most dynamic 50-year period
we've ever seen," Chamie adds. "Population is an extremely
important issue that should be on the top of the list of
discussions, irrespective of the country and its level of
development."