Why Mexico’s New President Is Playing Nice With Trump

It would be easy to assume that Mexico’s new president is going to tear down his country’s relationship with the United States. After all, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador—who was elected Sunday with a stunning 53 percent of the vote—has called President Donald Trump “erratic and arrogant” and has even published a book titled “Listen up, Trump!” in which he rejects the U.S. president’s attacks on Mexico and his repeated calls for a border wall.

AMLO is an unapologetic leftist, and his Morena party, which he founded in 2013 and has built through sheer force of will, dominates the new Congress (although early numbers suggest his coalition may not quite get a majority in the Chamber of Deputies). The party also won five out of nine governorships that were put up for grabs in Sunday’s election. AMLO and his party therefore appear to have an almost obstacle-free path for a radical agenda of change.

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And yet there is still a great deal of confusion and doubt about what this means for Mexico and for its relations with the U.S. What is likely is that AMLO will be much less radical than many fear, and that he will pursue stability in place of revolution. For foreign relations, he has already indicated that he is willing to work with Trump and recognizes the importance of NAFTA to Mexican prosperity.

On the domestic front, AMLO has promised a profound transformation of the Mexican system and society, one whose impact will equal that of the three most important transformations in Mexican history: independence, the reform period and the revolution. Except this time AMLO is promising a systemic shift without bloodshed or violence, effected by the ballot box and by the arrival of a new, honest and effective political class. He has promised to remove what he calls the “mafia in power” and the established political elites—Mexico’s version of Trump’s “drain the swamp.” Likewise, in their place will appear a highly centralized power structure built on the personality and dynamism of one man.

Throughout his career, AMLO has pledged his commitment to sweeping change. He has railed against the establishment, business and the political institutions of the country. He has refused to accept the decisions of electoral institutions when they ruled against him. He has remained committed to the vision of change despite two election defeats, heart problems, accusations of illegal activities and rejection by Mexico’s dominant political parties.

He has won this time around by abandoning the traditional party system and creating his own political Movement for National Regeneration (Morena), which has since seen a spectacular rise since its founding just five years ago. Morena is by design an umbrella party, one that was built out of a grass-roots movement driven and held together by AMLO’s personality and energy.

In his victory speech Sunday night from Mexico City’s historic city square, the Zocalo, AMLO called for unity and reconciliation among Mexicans and their political parties, promising economic and financial stability to markets and to fulfill his campaign promises on issues such as corruption, security and economic development. His speech to more than 100,000 jubilant supporters was energized and passionate, although still lacking in detail.

In essence, AMLO’s project is more than anything about putting in place new governance structures, reminiscent of the system under the formerly hegemonic PRI party, which ruled Mexico from the 1930s to 2000, where power and decision-making were highly centralized in the Mexican president. He envisions a system in which the Congress and governors bend to the will of the executive branch, focusing all attention on the president and allowing for a more efficient and, he hopes, effective policy environment.

But the true test, of course, begins now. During Mexico’s lengthy five-month transition period, AMLO’s team must learn the ropes of government and work on strategies and plans for a dizzying number of challenges facing the economy, public security, the energy sector, the fight against corruption and foreign policy—especially with regard to Trump and the NAFTA negotiations.

His first challenge is to calm international markets, and on the morning after the election his pick for finance secretary, Carlos Urzua, held a conference call for investors and analysts to send a message of stability and continuity. This was vitally important to avoid volatility—and it suggests that AMLO is painfully aware of the potential for punishment from financial and currency markets if he adopts less than orthodox economic policies.

The other challenges he faces will prove much more difficult. Mexico has been embroiled for years in a fight with organized crime, with hundreds of thousands of lives lost along the way, as well as a generalized breakdown of law and order and widespread impunity. Successive administrations have failed to bring down violence levels, despite spending more than $100 billion over 12 years and arresting or eliminating hundreds of organized crime bosses and operatives. AMLO has presented few details of his strategy to address the problem, beyond offering amnesty to small drug producers.

And so it goes in other areas. On energy, AMLO wants to unmake the 2013 reform that allowed private and foreign investment in the hydrocarbons sector, but cannot afford to jeopardize the contracts that have already been signed and will produce significant new oil production. On corruption, AMLO says his example of honesty will be enough to bring others into line. With Trump, AMLO must tread lightly and also resist the temptation to fight fire with fire. If he rises to the bait so frequently cast out on Twitter, we could imagine a rapid and dramatic deterioration of the relationship. Trump’s congratulatory tweet to AMLO may offer the slightest opportunity for a reset in the relationship.

The tone of AMLO’s victory speeches, the conciliatory concession speeches of AMLO's rivals, as well as the respectful speech given by President Enrique Peña Nieto, suggest that there will likely be cooperation and collaboration between the transition team, the government and rival parties. AMLO met with Peña Nieto on Tuesday to discuss and plan that transition process and will begin to be able to add detail to his policy ideas.

In the Zocalo, AMLO promised his supporters that he will be a “good president” and that he has learned the lessons of history. He is clearly thinking of his legacy, and he began working this week to change Mexico for the better. Mexico has a new president, a new administration and another opportunity to fix the problems that have plagued it for so long. The task is huge, and challenges many, but AMLO is in a strong position that gives him the chance to construct an audacious future for the country. If he can achieve this while providing political and economic stability, and without jeopardizing vital international relationships, then he just might succeed.