1) Germany ▲4

Will Germany be the team who time their run to perfection? The win over France was not without scares but they wrested control as the game went on and suggested that, with an iota of fluidity sacrificed, they may have come across a balance that clears the hurdles they have fallen at since 1990. Germany should score more than they do – their delivery from crosses and set plays has been excellent throughout the tournament but has been under-exploited since the rout of Portugal – but they look a more comfortable unit with Sami Khedira and Bastian Schweinsteiger back in tandem and, for all his polymath excellence, Philipp Lahm looks a better fit for this team at full-back. If Joachim Löw finds the right formula in Belo Horizonte on Tuesday – does he chance Miroslav Klose again with Brazil shorn of Thiago Silva? Is Per Mertesacker worth recalling to combat the hosts’ set-piece prowess? – then his side should be in the driving seat. Another early goal might just be enough.

2) Argentina ▲5

The comparisons with Brazil persist, even if Argentina lack their strength in depth outside the front three. Ángel di María is not quite a miss on the Neymar scale, but his absence for the tournament’s remainder will vigorously test the theory that Alejandro Sabella’s side are grafting all the way to the Maracanã. There were encouraging signs against Belgium, though: Argentina started the game at speed, deserved a goal that will have done Gonzalo Higuaín plenty of good, and managed the game expertly thereafter. The Belgians were kept at arm’s length and more goals could have come on the counter; their outstanding support in Brasília will have been heartened by a sharper, snappier midfield performance than they witnessed against Switzerland, too. If Sabella can cover the gap left by Di María – it will be difficult and Enzo Pérez, who replaced him on Saturday, is inexperienced at this level – then Argentina may find that another proactive opening period does for the Dutch.

3) Brazil ▲1

Until the extent of Neymar’s injury was confirmed, the conclusion that Brazil were going to see this through to the bitter end seemed inescapable. Few neutrals like them and they don’t care, but the picture is more complicated now and the suspended Thiago Silva, who has had an excellent World Cup, will arguably be missed just as much as the Seleção’s darling – as the CBF’s surely frivolous appeal against his ban indicates. Intense emotion has been a cornerstone of Brazil’s campaign so far and that will only be ramped up now, with Neymar’s plight already having moved a television studio audience to tears. The scrutiny under which their rotational fouling against the Colombians has been placed might not work in their favour against Germany – after controversy raged in the group stage against Croatia, they were sometimes harshly done by in the subsequent meeting with Mexico – but it would not be a shock if, by hook or by crook, they hauled themselves to within one match of what still feels as if it could be their destiny.

4) Holland ▼1

What to make of this enduringly curious Dutch side? Although their shootout win over Costa Rica was just reward for the final 40 minutes’ thrilling bombardment of their opponents’ goal, few would claim Louis van Gaal’s side look particularly coherent – and, as we saw in the second period of extra time, they will always give you a chance. Van Gaal has deserved credit for his tactical changes thus far – with or without that Tim Krul substitution – and there is certainly a feeling that he is having to do things on the fly with a slightly lop-sided squad of stars and learners. Arjen Robben continues to step up irresistibly; there have strong signs in the last two games that Wesley Sneijder is doing that too. The worry is that Argentina will prove just too practised in São Paulo: the Dutch will need to rediscover the clinical edge that blitzed Spain all those days ago, and will hope that Robin van Persie used up his month’s quota of fluffed lines on Saturday night.

5) Colombia ▼4

Brazil did a job on José Pékerman’s side and, whatever your thoughts on how it was achieved, the impression deep down was that Colombia showed themselves to be a notch short of the tournament’s best. There was always the fear that clinical opponents might highlight some defensive shortcomings and, while nothing could be done about David Luiz’s free-kick, Carlos Sánchez’s early inattentiveness from Neymar’s corner would cost them dearly. The tight offside decision that went against them at the other end shortly before Luiz’s goal was another turning point, but Colombia did not quite show the boldness and good sense on the ball that they had exhibited in previous games – numerous counterattacks were stymied by canny defending or a poor final pass, Juan Cuadrado looking short of his incisive best. Colombia deserved their status as the neutrals’ favourites and the tournament is poorer for their and James Rodríguez’s departure; they are not the first team, though, to feel they missed an opportunity against one of their South American rivals.

6) France ▼4

It was good to see France dispense with the rancour and play some genuinely entertaining football in Brazil but cries that they could win the thing seemed slightly excitable and so it proved. Germany concentrated on winning the midfield battle in Rio and, for all their dynamism, Paul Pogba and company were far more subdued than against Nigeria. They were bested by opponents who had seen it all before, but the match was still decided by fine margins that may have been erased if Les Bleus had capitalised during a purple patch either side of half time. Didier Deschamps can wonder whether a defence containing Mamadou Sakho stood much chance of building effectively from the back, but he comes out of this tournament in credit, his uncompromising approach in its run-up having paid dividends. France are young and have enviable speed and width, Antoine Griezmann and Mathieu Valbuena making light of Franck Ribéry’s injury; they are on the way back, and a European Championship on home soil in two years’ time looks ideally timed to confirm the fact.

7) Costa Rica ▲1

It would have been too good to be true if Marco Ureña had put a little bit more on the extra-time shot that Jasper Cillessen thwarted with his legs. It would also have been unfair on Holland, in all honesty, and Costa Rica’s fortune eventually expired at the hands of Tim Krul. But Jorge Luis Pinto’s side were still more good than lucky over their five games. The Colombian devised a structure and style suited perfectly to tournament football, a fluid counter-attacking approach ensuring that a correspondingly deep defensive block never risked appearing stodgy. The result was the World Cup finals’ best underdog story in years, and it will be interesting to see what the future holds for Pinto’s players now. Will the likes of Celso Borges, Giancarlo González, Cristian Gamboa and Óscar Duarte step up effortlessly to stronger leagues, or were they simply horses that perfectly fitted their manager’s meticulously plotted course?

8) Belgium ▼2

Marc Wilmots’ post-match comments were well and good, but he will know that his Belgium side blinked when the biggest hype-justifying opportunity of all presented itself. True, Argentina slowed things up (and as a side note, the “ball in play” statistics for this competition’s knockout stage will not be flattering) but his team were pretty laboured, too, as they had been during their three group fixtures. Ponderousness in moving the ball through midfield was a theme in Belgium’s performances – perhaps more sightings of Steven Defour would have been useful – as was the subduing of Eden Hazard, who Wilmots chose to dispense with for his final assault on the Argentinians. There was a lack of presence and balance further forwards; surprisingly, for a team that has developed steadily and organically, Belgium lacked cohesion. They will improve for Euro 2016, aided by Christian Benteke’s return, but perhaps Wilmots’ sour grapes betrayed a concern as to whether he is the man to continue the process.