Monday, December 12, 2011

2012 Sasquatch Headliner Predictions

"Where is our headliner?" As previously mentioned, just because they announced a headliner early the last two years, doesn't mean they will this year. Since tickets have been on sale for a couple weeks, the organizer now know how many people will attend Sasquatch regardless of the lineup or a headliner. That's pretty powerful information moving forward. Because there isn't much to talk about right now, and you are all getting the fever, I'll offer my 2012 Sasquatch headliner predictions, otherwise known as the likelihood the likeliest headliners will likely headline Sasquatch 2012. I did correctly predict the four headliners (and top subheadliner) last year before the lineup was announced, one being a band I predicted over a year before the festival (Wilco). Believe what you will, but my predictions are at least better than randomly throwing darts at a list of possibilities.

Bon Iver (83.2%) - A Sasquatch vet who has blown up recently. Singer/songwriters rarely reach headliner status with a couple good albums and fantastic live shows. They need to crossover into "popular" music to reach this lofty status. I don't care what anyone thinks about Bon Iver's lack of popularity, or how much any of you hate Kanye West. Fact is, Kanye West made Bon Iver a star by introducing him to a new crowd, the 19-23 year olds who spend a lot of time listening to the radio, and who make up half of the Sasquatch attendees. His most recent album spent time in the top 40, which shows how popular he is. I don't base my opinions on who I like, most of what you are reading is based on ticket sales. Bon Iver was recently selling out 3,000 capacity venues in a day. He's much bigger than you think, is still up and coming, and is my most likely choice for Sasquatch 2012 headliner. Sasquatch has recently landed the soon to be headliners at larger festivals, so this is a perfect match.

Deadmau5 (31.4%) - I'm not sure he'll ever stop touring, but he does have upcoming dates, including Europe in June, so he's available. He's about as much of a Sasquatch vet as there is, being a relative unknown in the dance tent in 2009, then playing the late night second stage slot in 2010. It seems like a natural progression to make headlining the main stage the next stop. He's already headlined Lollapalooza, although their split headliner formula made him more like a subheadliner. A real headlining gig which doesn't end at 10 p.m. has to be tempting. I predicted an EDM headlining act earlier this summer, and the mouse is the most likely. Plus, Sasquatch has had a mouse band on their lineup four years straight. The streak cannot end now.

Mumford & Sons (24.5%) - Another Sasquatch vet who has blown up recently, and that is an understatement. They went from playing the second stage at Sasquatch 2010 early in the day to selling out 1,500 capacity venues in minutes a couple months later. They were a sub/sub at Coachella 2011, had a huge crowd, and put on a solid show. They are now playing arenas, and are still gaining popularity. It's amazing to me a band with one album would blow up like this, but they have, and you are kidding yourself if you think they are not big enough to headline Sasquatch. They are not yet big enough to headline the biggest U.S. Festivals, so again, they fit the recent Sasquatch headliner trend.

Primus (15.4%) - They played the NW in 2010, but ended their 2011 tour in California without making it back up north. They have a couple shows in California at the end of the month, and shows in Europe in March/April. They've never played Sasquatch, so I'll give the Black Keys warning I offered earlier. The only reason their percentage is so low is because they really aren't big enough to headline Sasquatch. They might be huge in California, but they aren't a huge draw in the NW. It could happen, but a subheadliner slot on loud Friday seems more fitting.

Portishead (15.3%) - They played in Seattle this fall. Does this make them more likely or less likely to headline Sasquatch? In this case, much more likely. They rarely tour, and have a hell of a light/monitor show they obviously spent a lot of time and money on. It would look great on the main stage at Sasquatch, similar to Massive Attack's headlining set two years ago.

Sigur Ros (8.2%) - Sigur Ros might be active in 2012, which is why they are included here. They fit the sub-headliner mold of the biggest festivals, which is about right for a Sasquatch headliner. Bands want to be headliners. If Sigur Ros has to choose between a headliner set at Sasquatch, or a subheadliner set at a different large festival, Sasquatch would be more lucrative and attractive. I don't think they will be on the lineup, but as far as, "wow, I never thought they would be there," bands go, Sigur Ros would surprise me the least. Yes, I just said the most likely of the least likely. That's still something.

Skrillex (7.7%)- Like him or not, he is gigantic these days, and has a pretty amazing light show in tote. He is touring through June of 2012 with a giant gap in May, so he is also available. Remember when he used to open for Deadmau5? Wouldn't that be an interesting headliner/sub. EDM Friday anyone?

Red Hot Chili Peppers (3.6%) - RHCP will be everyone in 2012. They have also announced tour dates excluding the NW. Headliners year to year can be a small pool to choose from. It's not like every band big enough to headline is available every year. The Peppers will play major festivals in the United States and Europe. With the chances of them headlining Coachella appearing less likely, that only makes their chances of headlining Sasquatch more likely. They are the Foo Fighters of last year, and will help guarantee another sell out in 2012. Remember Jane's Addiction's first U.S. festival headlining set was Sasquatch, even though Perry Farrell founded Lollapalooza, and often plays Coachella in some form. Sasquatch isn't too small for the Hots. UPDATE: Recently recent tour dates put the Peppers in the midwest during Sasquatch with dates booked on three of the four days of the festival. They drop from a 30.1% chance.

Black Keys (1.4%) - They have been the most obvious choice since the conclusion of Sasquatch 2011. They finally reached the masses with the crossover success of their 2010 album Brothers. They also aren't big enough to headline the biggest festivals, but the pending success of their newest album released last week should change that. The Black Keys are on the verge of being the biggest non-Legend rock band in the world. Their possibility is strengthened by the fact they recently announced tour dates with the NW missing. Knowing the Sasquatch headliners are likely aleady booked, 2012 is the best chance Sasquatch has to land them. However, the only reason I don't think they are a lock is because they have been rumored every year recently, but are never on the lineup. Some bands are less likely because of behind the scene interactions we don't know about. Sasquatch is practically run by Ticketmaster, so there are a lot of reasons huge bands would turn their nose. UPDATE: Recently released NW tour dates indicates the Black Keys are highly unlikely. They drop from a 68.2% chance.

Radiohead (1.3%) - I discussed the Radiohead possibilities last month. They are on tour next spring, and still have no NW dates. I still give them a 1/10 chance of being there, which is much higher than I have ever given them, and likely much higher than I will ever get them. If you're going to blow a huge chunk of change on the Red Hots, why not up the ante and get Radiohead instead? UPDATE: Recently released NW tour dates indicates Radiohead is highly unlikely. They drop from a 9.6% chance.

Pearl Jam (0.1%) - As mentioned in the comments section, Pearl Jam is back. They have a couple festival gigs booked in Europe in June, so there is no reason to believe they won't be ready for Sasquatch. Is this finally the year for Pearl Jam? Probably not. I'll keep wishing. Again, if you're going to spend the bank on the Hot Chilies, why not pay more for Pearl Jam instead? UPDATE: I created the dots last night, but didn't connect them until this morning. Pearl Jam hates Ticketmaster. They've been involved in a lawsuit in the past. Since Ticketmaster is tight with Livenation (who runs Sasquatch) you'll probably never see them on the lineup. I'm downgrading them from a 4.3% chance to a 0.1% chance.

Fleet Foxes (0.1%) - The are only rated so low because they are the perfect subheadliner for Bon Iver (or Mumford & Sons). Their Sasquatch probability is much higher, but I'm not convinced they are headliner status unless a large chunk of the budget is spent on Radiohead or Pearl Jam. They have the local love, and have played the festival twice, so that might push them over the edge. UPDATE: Per Robin Pecknold's twitter, the band has no upcoming shows booked. They drop from a 14.1% chance.

If you agree, or think other headliner predictions are missing, let me know in the comments section. If you think my predictions are synonymous to a Sasquatch campground honey bucket which hasn't been emptied in four days, you are welcome to state that as well.

Black Keys played in 2004 according to Wikipedia. I'd be shocked if they weren't a headliner. I don't see Mumford & Sons as a headliner. Though they are on par in terms of popularity with past headliners, pretty much every band in the past few years have a renowned reputation for a great live show (MMJ/Massive Attack/Ween/Foos/Janes and NIN), and/or some sort of longevity/paid their dues (Modest Mouse/Death Cab/Wilco). I don't even think they're comparable to Kings of Leon, who'd just released heir fourth (massively popular) album, and had headlined everywhere over seas. I don't think Mumford & Sons have the rep or longevity. Fleet Foxes and Bon Iver are more likely imo, but I also see them more in the Flaming Lips/Pavemet co-headliner spot.

I'm committed to going to sassy already, and I've bought tickets pre linuep for the last 3 years...if the headliners are The Black Keys, RHCP, Deadmau5, and Bon Iver I'd be really stoked as it would be one of my favorite group of sassy headliners yet! Maybe THE favorite.

Even thought that group isn't HUGE (with the exception of RHCP) I really enjoy all of those artists. I hope you're right.

Especially if The Shins and Fleet Foxes are sprinkled in there as well.

Drunk bros liking Animal Collective is a hilarious notion. Have you ever seen Animal Collective at a festival? Most people do not get it, period. They don't leave thinking, "I don't think I get it," they leave saying, "That was the worst shit I've ever seen in my life."

Black keys are a lock . They fit the we are now big enough to headline mold that Sasquatch likes(KOL and death cab)

Sigur ros fits the off the Radar act(Massive attack)

RHCP Fit the friday Rock headliner ( Foo Fighters and NIN)

And the last headliner would be a Pacific NW favorite.( flaming lips) I am going out on a limb and say The Pixies.

Friday-RHCPSaturday-Sigur RosSunday- Black KeysMonday - the Pixies

I think that is Possible, Radiohead has to stick around for a long time after Coachella to be at Sasquatch. Have alot of Dates in March. They are probably going to another more west coast dates in late March and Early April. So i think they are out.

NIN has a farewell tour a few years ago. Sasquatch was apart of the tour. You link was for something from 2009. I hope that RHCP don't ruin Sasquatch. Would love to see the Pixies, Michael Franti & Spearhead, The Shins....The Cure...

even though its not Sasquatch's strong suit, it would be great to see a few solid Hip-Hop or R&B acts this year... The Weeknd hasn't done a festival yet, they would be pretty smart to get that guy booked.

otherwise i think youre right on target with predicted headliners... hopefully miike snow, and bring back Rodrigo y Gabriela - they were incredible.

you can pretty much rule out anybody who played last year. squatch has an unofficial bands can't come back year after year rule. yes it's been broke a few times but i've only seen it done with local acts covering for last minute cancellations (think the gossip played 2 years in a row). Skrillex won't be there this year.

deadmau5 just retired the cube and has said he is creating an even crazier light show for festival season 2012sasqautch 2010 was one of the first cube shows he had so it seems fitting he would be back this year to release even more madness!!

radiohead, pixies, the black keys and mgmt.. would be amazing if 2 out of the 4 would be there, andBAND OF HORSES!! please...............

Kelly, bands with a significant increase in popularity since the festival have been invited back the following year, and bumped to a larger stage. For example, Deadmau5 in 2009, Passion Pit in 2010, and Local Natives in 2011. Skrillex's popularity has increased enormously since his dance tent set earlier this year, which is why he appears as a possibility.

@Pearl Jam fans: Pearl Jam "making up" with Ticketmaster is pretty funny. Pearl Jam spent a lot of time and paid a lot of money to sue Ticketmaster. Ticketmaster runs a huge portion of venue ticket sales across the nation. It is impossible to escape it. Pearl Jam is required to use Ticketmaster for many of their shows, or skip regions filled with their fans entirely. Saying, "they now support Ticketmaster because they play Ticketmaster venues," doesn't mean all is good. Who actually voluntarily supports ticketmaster?

@breoon: Nice catch.

@anon 12/17: I haven't heard the Beastie Boys are doing anything anytime soon. Chances for Sasquatch, maybe 1.1%, only because they would be returning headliners. That percent would go way up if they started touring again, or announced intentions to.

This is a shot in the dark, but possibly the band Phoenix? They're pretty big, but have been very quiet without any recent tours or album releases. They announced last year (Feb 2011) that they were working on an experimental album, which could be due out early this year. If released in time, I think they would be a big headliner at Sasquatch

Re MGMT: If I was a betting man, I would throw a small wager that MGMT will be on the lineup. I speculated earlier they might be headliner worthy, but it feels like their popularity has dropped because their second album wasn't nearly as catchy. I see them as a logical subheadliner, but a disappointing headliner. If a subheadliner is on the verge of being large enough to headline, I would hope they put on amazing shows. MGMT doesn't (nor do the Shins), which is why I think they are better suited for subheadlining slots.

Re Phoenix: Sure, Phoenix has a big enough following to headline. Their nearly complete silence is the only reason I didn't mention them.

RHCP, Radiohead, Foster the People, and Black Keys/or Bon Iver. That would be Amazing. I also want to see some of those suggested headliners in the place that Flaming Lips were last year. That would make sense.

It has just been confirmed that Soundgaren and Bruce Springsteen will play at Pinkpop 2012. As this beautiful Dutch festival takes place on the same weekend as Sasquatch! (26-28 May), I thought this might interest you guys. Cheers!

If Soundgarden is in Europe during Sasquatch, that means Pearl Jam will not be at Sasquatch either (for sure). Matt Cameron is the drummer in both bands (HE ROCKS) and neither will perform without him. :( I really really really want to see Pearl Jam at the Gorge :(

Is F***ed Up a realistic possibility (not sure on site's cursing policy)? They've blown up quite substantially and I realize punk/hardcore isn't really Sasquatch's scene, but they do have the crossover appeal.

For other Canadian acts, if the Black Keys are there, I assume The Sheepdogs will be as well, considering Patrick Carney is producing their next record. The Rural Alberta Advantage would be a nice pick. Don't know what Destroyer is doing in 2012. Maybe Feist?

Portishead would be fantastic. I wish PJ Harvey or Nick Cave could stop by one of these years. NC and the Bad Seeds are recording this year with Grinderman finished, don't know if they'll be ready for end of May.

Not a big act, but The Rapture could be a possibility, they will have been in Europe the previous month but should be done there. Would get the crowd moving.

Looking at other 2011 buzz acts: Real Estate seems like a no go with dates on different continents before and after, The War On Drugs are through the Pac NW as an opener in March, Girls seem to be a possibility, though.

i have a strong feeling in my gut that the shins will be there. new album, not many tour dates announced. the last one is at the end of april in reno. not to mention they're based out of portland and they did sasquatch in 2006.

I think you should rethink your Black Keys percentage. They are playing coachella and shows in Oakland and Sac-town. Based on their tour pattern they certainly could do a few early summer festivals after finishing their tour up in Canada and the northern midwest

I don't know ticketmaster's involvement with venues outside of the NW, but I know they basically own the Gorge. It also seems sketchy Pearl Jam chose Wisonsin for their 20th anniversary show. They are a NW band who defined the Seattle grunge scene in the 90s. Why not the Gorge?

If I see the following on ANOTHER Sasquatch line up I will boycott forever:

Local NativesFleet FoxesThe Flaming LipsNada SurfMichael Franti

Why hope for bands that have played almost every year??

RHCP headlining the festival will do to Sasquatch what Tragically Hip headlining did to Pemberton. Attract a bunch of dorks. Chemical Brothers would be awesome and worthy. Sigur Ros would be awesomer. Radiohead would be most awesome. If the Horrors didn't hate touring in the US that would be a supremely awesome headliner. Mangum is Lord.

yeah Death Cab played in Bend, then the next day drove up for Sasquatch. I personally want to see Grace Potter & the Nocturnals at Sasquatch. She has a little Sharon Jones & the Dap Kings vibe and is great live! Shes playing Coachella, but has from early may to early june off. I wouldn't be too surprised if they went

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