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Van Brimmer: Conservative conundrum ahead for Super Tuesday voters

Republicans will congregate this afternoon to quietly toast what they believe is the last Presidents Day with Barack Obama holding the office.

Those imbibing in something other than spiked Kool-Aid will no doubt ponder an all-too-familiar presidential primary conundrum: Heart versus head.

When voters go to the polls on Super Tuesday, March 6, the ballot will list the candidates’ names. But for many, the choice will be between voting for the man they believe has the best chance to defeat Obama in November or for the man who best personifies their ideals.

The problem is not specific to the Republicans. Presidential elections are often decided by American voters who consider themselves either Independents or party moderates — the so-called “swing voters” — not by the loud-and-proud conservatives and liberals.

The Independent ranks range in size from 20 percent of registered voters to 40 percent, depending on the survey. So the wisdom of picking a nominee who appeals to those less interested in ideology than Sheen-ology (“Winning”), especially in a race against an incumbent, is sound.

Yet choosing pragmatism over principles seems as difficult for Republicans as shopping at the outlets versus the mall is for a budget-conscious fashionista.

“A lot of Republicans feel they’d be better off in November with Mitt Romney as the nominee, but they’re not ready to fall in line behind him and are holding out for a conservative champion,” said Kerwin Swint, a political science professor at Kennesaw State University. “It’s a real oddity. I struggle to remember the last time a major party was running this far away from its frontrunner.”

Election or referendum?

The current Romney vs. “conservative champion” contest puts the GOPs in an overripe pickle.

They make the label “Massachusetts Moderate” sound like a mama insult.

They make fun of his pressed blue jeans.

So will the party loyalists hold their noses and vote along party lines if Romney is the nominee?

Or will they stay in bed come Nov. 6, blankets pulled over their heads, effectively negating the votes gained in nominating a candidate more palatable with the Independents and swing voters?

“History shows more often than not they will come out and vote for their candidate even if it’s not their first choice,” said Eisinger, a political science professor at SCAD. “And among conservatives, the ‘Anybody is better than Obama’ attitude is strong.”

The election-as-referendum-against-Obama is as familiar a refrain right now as the Pledge of Allegiance. Obama is far from beloved. He’s short-armed his fiscal campaign promises, a big no-no with the 25-to-40 percenters, and his approach to the War on Terror has left his own base disenchanted.

Yet voters aren’t as spittin’ mad at Obama as the Rush Limbaughs and Sean Hannitys of the world would have their listeners believe. The politics have become so partisan, the non-partisans tune out.

“And Americans want to re-elect an incumbent,” Kennesaw’s Swint said. “If there is not an overriding reason to get rid of an incumbent, we won’t.”

It’s the economy, silly

Most one-term presidents get derailed by the same problem – economic weakness.

Consider the list of losing incuments since World War I: George Bush the elder (savings and loan crisis); Jimmy Carter (inflationary recession); and Gerald Ford (energy crisis).

The inchworm’s pace of the current economic recovery accounts for much of the angst directed toward Obama. His approval rating will track with the economy between now and Election Day.

A continuation of the economy's current upward creep — whether because of his policies or in spite of them — bodes poorly for Republicans regardless of the nominee’s identity.

One could argue the general election often isn’t about the candidate. Go back four years. The economy tanks in September 2008. Two months later, an inexperienced liberal hammers the veteran moderate.

Coincidence?

“Candidates matter. Campaigns matter. But there is something to the notion of who wins and who loses not merely being a product of who the candidate is,” SCAD’s Eisinger said. “If unemployment gets down to 7 percent and the stock market is up around 14,000, even the Republicans will tell you it’s going to be hard to beat Obama. But if unemployment ticks back up and the market slips again and we have some foreign policy snafu, it become an ‘as long as it’s not Obama’ deal.”

Happy Presidents Day all. But you may want to hold off a few months on that toast.

Adam Van Brimmer’s column runs each Monday. He blogs most weekdays at www.savannahnow.com and also is a social media regular @avanbrimmer on Twitter and Daddy Warbucks on Facebook.