Damage surveys continue in the Plains in the wake of Saturday's major tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 110 preliminary tornado reports, with an additional 10 reports from Sunday. At least one tornado was a violent EF-4, which hit mostly unpopulated areas in Ellsworth County, Kansas. The only fatalities from the outbreak occurred in Woodward, Oklahoma, where an EF-3 tornado hit at night after lightning knocked out the town's tornado sirens. Six people were killed, three of them children. A preliminary rating of EF-3 has also been given to a tornado that hit the south and southeast portions of Wichita, Kansas near 10:30 pm CDT Saturday night. The tornado did significant damage to McConnell AFB and to a nearby trailer park. All of the residents of the trailer park were in the trail park's tornado shelter, which undoubtedly saved many lives. Two residents required hospitalization. Damage from the Wichita tornado has been estimated at $283 million.

Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the EF-3 tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage estimated at $283 million.

Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas. At about the 3 minute mark, you'll see what appear to be cows moving very fast in a mighty tail wind.

New dire language in tornado warningsNational Weather Service offices in several states in the Plains are experimenting this year with new wording in public advisories when a particularly dangerous tornado has touched down. If spotters confirm that a large and damaging tornado is on the ground, the NWS has the option of including some rather dire wording to get the public to take action. About 3/4 of all tornado warnings are false alarms. This primarily occurs because the NWS will issue a warning for a rotating thunderstorm spotted on radar, and these thunderstorms don't always have funnel clouds that reach to the ground. But when spotters actually verify that a tornado is on the ground, and that tornado has a long history of causing damage, issuance of one the new direly-worded advisories may help give the public the message that this tornado is not going to be a false alarm and they better take it seriously. Such an advisory was issued for Saturday's Wichita, Kansas tornado, which turned out to be an EF-3 that caused major but not catastrophic damage. The dire wording of the advisory predicted the type of damage associated with a violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, "with complete devastation likely." The damage from this tornado fell short of that mark, but I believe it was a reasonable usage of the new type of advisory:

AT 1031 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELLBUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLETO SURVIVORS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION LIKELY. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. DO NOT DELAY...SEEK SHELTER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STRUCTURE...OR IF TIME ALLOWS...CONSIDER MOVING TO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER ELSEWHERE. MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO.

A thunderstorm passes through Houston early Monday morning with lots of amazing lightning. I'm probably going to regret getting up to take this photo later today. :).
For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here.
For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.

Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.

I think this has been a good start. We've watched him come up with other shapes on maps, for other events. I've watched this evolve, it's getting more detailed. The way that was done with the tornado out break was interesting cause I could scroll through & see it move & plumes explode within boundaries already outlined by rectangles. It's natural math & physics in shapes. It's partly what I've always imagined when forecasting...things tend toward patterns, like three cyclones in a row. Some people can see & do math on a way higher level with shapes & colors. I glimpse it, but far from fully grasp it. But what if one of these geniuses that fully gets it taught it to computers to use the big picture shapes & colors to simplify the runs so they could run that much more info for each model run? Even the text of the tutorial ends with questions. This is in no way trying to even sound like a peer reviewed idea. In the past here we've come up with ideas that have gone on to be others thesis or peer reviewed papers. It could be the next great thing in models or not.. I'd like to see it run it's course, he's not making any claims, not really trolling, they have all been done on maps where the lat/log are curved & I'm partial to the rainbow maps. There's getting to be a trend toward bashing people seeing things in clouds..shapes, demons, numbers..some of us will never be convinced that just because you don't see them that Sky ponies don't exist:)

The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.

I am about 20-25 miles from the San Andreas fault. The San Bernardino part of it. (Southern Calif) I always cringe when people mention that we haven't had one lately. Thank you for saying the opposite (wishing nothing). So ya doing well there? Have you got your web pages behaving?

MUCH warmer than in 2009 and for that matter, 2006. GOMEX is warmer than any year too, which leads me to believe that we're going to see a few more named storms than what we saw in 2009. Don't be surprised though if most of the 10 or 11 named this year happens before the peak of hurricane season.

Quoting Jedkins01:What I would like to see is a thunderstorm that would look like this:

and would bring 5 to 6 inches of rain in a couple hours turning my yard into this:

Yes that thunderstorm happened last year and caused that flooding, it dumped roughly 5 to 6 inches within 2 hours, it also was tornado warned and produced 60 mph winds here and incredible lightning that caused a fire about a mile away, and that's me standing in the flood waters afterward.

I would really like to see some of this above return instead of all this drought :)

I saw a thunderstorm like that once and I don't want to see another!Black, almost like night, lightning every few seconds, incredible noise and worst of all the roar of the rivers with boulders in them.14 inches of rain in 5 hours, everything except big rocks washed away, devastation that can't be imagined unless you lived through it! 1999 I think.I wish I could have stood in the floodwater's but they were 14 feet deep and moving at about 40 miles an hour.

Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/paraOne would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:We also had a 7.0 in Papua New Guinea... Thankfully it was deep though

Morning everyone.

After my time by the hands of your clocks, I was on a roof, fixing it when that happened but this outbreak of "quakeisums" is a bit unusual, they are scattered all over the pacific ring and we have had a few in the Med. area as well, thought less intense.The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.Sun streaming down here in Southern Europe and we also had tornado's in Jaen north of Granada and Tarragona south of Barcelona on Saturday, not to be left out of the action. Nothing remotely like what the central states had though.Oh! Happy Tuesday for some reason!

nrtiwlnvragn,do you have the link to the GFS Parallel site? Thanks in advance.

Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/paraOne would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.

Quoting biff4ugo:Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.

Rain's a coming but so is also the severe wx potential. Lots of shear across FL on Sunday.

Quoting Levi32:You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.

Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIEDUPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONTTHROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THESYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTEDTO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCEPOPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENTMOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. MOS GUIDANCE ISCONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPSUP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCEEXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIESOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWNINTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.

Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.

Quoting StormTracker2K:Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD

Quoting StormTracker2K:Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD

we will have to watch this develop carefully, but we need all the rain we can get

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIEDUPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONTTHROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THESYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTEDTO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCEPOPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENTMOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. MOS GUIDANCE ISCONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPSUP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCEEXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIESOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWNINTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERMPERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TOMOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARENOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERNGULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTINGOUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURESHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EASTACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERNATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURECOMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOMEINSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THEDEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGINGA DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIREFORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THESYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOMESCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLANDAREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILLEXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENTSHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.yESSSSSSSSSS

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERMPERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TOMOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARENOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERNGULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTINGOUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURESHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EASTACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERNATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURECOMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOMEINSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THEDEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGINGA DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIREFORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THESYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOMESCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLANDAREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILLEXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENTSHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.

Being April & how MJO should be nearing & passing through null the next 2 weeks or so, climo would suggest the best chance for invest being the area of 99S to the other side of the Hemisphere in that region. There is that 1 in 27 shot something off the east coast.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-180945-SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITYLA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM20 TO 60 NM-445 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTGULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS LOW DEVELOPSOFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THISWEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WE MAY BE CALLING UPON RIGS TO REPORT SEVERE CONDITIONS LATE THISWEEK.

snipped this from YoloHub site............Does it seem to you like there has been an unusual amount of seismic activity around the world lately? Well, it isn’t just your imagination. The Ring of Fire is roaring to life and that is really bad news for the west coast of the United States. Approximately 90 percent of all earthquakes and approximately 75 percent of all volcanic eruptions occur along the Ring of Fire. Considering the fact that the entire west coast of the United States lies along the Ring of Fire, we should be very concerned that the Ring of Fire is becoming more active. On Wednesday, the most powerful strike-slip earthquake ever recorded happened along the Ring of Fire. If that earthquake had happened in a major U.S. city along the west coast, the city would have been entirely destroyed. Scientists tell us that there is nearly a 100% certainty that the “Big One” will hit California at some point. In recent years we have seen Japan, Chile, Indonesia and New Zealand all get hit by historic earthquakes. It is inevitable that there will be earthquakes of historic importance on the west coast of the United States as well. So far we have been very fortunate, but that good fortune will not last indefinitely.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEASTWIND TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.BEACH VISITORS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONSBEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. NEVER SWIM ALONE... ESPECIALLY AT UNGUARDEDBEACHES.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILLCREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTCENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADINGQUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAYDURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.