Saturday, October 20, 2012

Index Style Sports Betting For Fun & Profit

Lately, I've been spending a fair amount of time with single event sports betting.

I'd been looking for a way to create a record of my play when I stumbled across Wagerminds. While you cannot wager real money, it's a pretty clean set-up.

Right away I noticed you could not practice Kelly criterion wagering, which left me disappointed. I also was frustrated with the lack of CFL betting. (They have WNBA for goodness sake!)

Resigned to a flat betting scheme, I experimented with wagering similar to my last trip to Vegas: Picking my spots, looking for lines wavering from my personal models. And pretty much I sucked for the first month. I couldn't hit a total to save my life.

While I was floundering, I scouted the more successful bettors on the site and asked, "What are they doing differently?" First of all, they were betting the max (5 units) on almost every wager. Also, they wagered more often than me.

It became clear that to climb the rankings at Wagerminds, you needed to handicap a HUGE volume of games.

Now I don't mess with markets I know little about (WNBA) or derivative betting (1st half, etc.) My forecast models are all based on full game simulations. And I believe my data brought me an advantage: The ability to handicap many games quickly.

So a few weeks ago I began the grand experiment. I capped the entire NCAA football card.

Now that does NOT mean I bet every game. Some games I made 3 wagers (spread, ML, total). Some games I might have not wagered at all. But I'm certain I had action on 50+ of the 60 games going.

Much to my surprise I finished up +106.5 units on that week. The next two weeks were also winners (65 & 28 units). And I zoomed up the Wagerminds leaderboard.

I'm learning that volume betting diversifies risk (and tilt factor). No single game is make or break for you. If you have a wide variety of markets to bet on, index style wagering might work for you.

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