FEINBERG FORECAST: The Oscar Landscape After Telluride, Before Toronto and New York

THR's awards analyst has just returned from the Telluride Film Festival, where he saw 13 films over 5 days, and will soon head off to the Toronto Int'l Film Festival.

Benedict Cumberbatch and Chiwetel Ejiofor in '12 Years a Slave'

Every week through the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated); precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others); and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).