I certainly am hoping that this bodes better times. But, for the moment, the lower unemployment number looks like a pretty mixed bag, Along with hirings in the past month, the previous two months' hiring figures were revised upward, so this means, as far as good news goes, that hiring in the last quarter has been consistently better than earlier in the year. And I suppose some will take it as a marginally good sign that private employers are hiring while governments are laying off workers. But many of the newest jobs could be transient holiday ones, since the biggest gains were among retailers, and this may especially be the case without continued growth and if the European crisis gets out of hand. The worst thing of all about the lower unemployment number is the degree to which it's a mathematical result of 315,000 people dropping out of the labor force because of long-term unemployment, so the lower number doesn't really represent strong and significant gains in the labor market overall.

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"Viewed from the genuine abolition ground, Mr. Lincoln seemed tardy, cold, dull, and indifferent; but measuring him by the sentiment of his country, a sentiment he was bound as a statesman to consult, he was swift, zealous, radical, and determined." Frederick Douglass

Any gov't number is nonsense. What's the real unemployment right (i.e. that includes those that are structurally unemployed, have given up looking or who don't work 40 hrs per week?)

It's probably 20-25%. Disgusting.

Let's keep outsourcing jobs though to save $$$.

It's about 16% according to the Fed, Yahoo and Breitbart (yes I know, shut up) reported on it awhile ago. Anyway, it's beyond obvious the number fell because people just stopped being counted given that you need 150,000 new jobs per month just to break even.

« Last Edit: December 02, 2011, 09:49:00 am by inoculate the innocuous »

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market. They have all the power and all the chips. They dictate everything. They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours. That's the new norm folks.

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service.

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market. They have all the power and all the chips. They dictate everything. They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours. That's the new norm folks.

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service.

Those "real" unemployment rates are just circlejerk lies. Unemployment is not about 10%. I live in a dirt poor area and 1 in 4 people I meet here are not unemployed. 1 in 10? Very likely, but "people who gave up" is not double people still trying. You don't just "give up" on having a livelihood.

One question is, has the economy turned the corner? Improving numbers through June (and I'd include the misery index in those numbers) would be very good political news for Obama. A slump in the same period, or even static numbers would not.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." - Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy. There is a $h*tload of cash on the sidelines, and to the degree confidence improves, some of this capital may reenter the economy.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created more or less equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.

I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (and vica versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)

An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

« Last Edit: December 02, 2011, 12:36:39 pm by The Vorlon »

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No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market. They have all the power and all the chips. They dictate everything. They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours. That's the new norm folks.

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service.

This is what it is folks. Read that. Very scary.

Is this country doomed permanently? I fear so. Service economy- hah! Here is your service economy.

What will happen if a hen impregnates an asteroid? Certainly, this will result in a snow storm over the Canary Islands, which will guarantee an FDP landslide in the next Nigerian election. Do you get me?

I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.

I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (an visa versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)

An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

Underground economy? That's a good guess. Although, police have reported less crime. Perhaps its a negative feedback loop that's going on. The less legitimate money being made, the lower the tax revenues, the lower the tax revenues, the less cops investigate whores, drugs and tax evaders....or people getting beat up or robbed for that matter. I mean, one of my sister in laws got arrested for being a whore and pimp in Casper a couple of months ago while she was completely under the radar almost everywhere else. The economy in Wyoming is still being propped up by those who make 60 or 70 large a year toiling for Dick Cheney in the oil and coal fields. Its a great way to get and stay in shape and it keeps the local economy very strong.

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession. And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama. In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt. So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

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Do not fight with one another over my banning. I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave. It is what I want.

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

Isn't that what Reagan said too?

how would you know, you're 19 years old?! And if someone has told you the Reagan recovery was fake, they you really are to be pittied. The recovery during the Reagan and Clinton administrations was an absolute gold mine for anyone with markable skills. Both were very real and broad based, though the IT bubble of 90's made follow through in the 00's tough.

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Do not fight with one another over my banning. I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave. It is what I want.

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession. And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama. In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt. So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

Wow.. and I thought I was a pessimist... - I am thinking flat gdp will 2013.....

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No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession. And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama. In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt. So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?