INDEX BY TITLE

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS PREDICTIONS WEEK 5

Ok, time to get this show on
the road. I’ve got a nearly full slate of conference predictions to look at
this week plus a Notre Dame game. It looks like a good portion of them will
qualify as plays, so here we go.

My
current record: 0-1

CRYSTAL BALL

WEEK OF 10-3-2015

NEBRASKA

42

ILLINOIS

27

OHIO ST

56

INDIANA

21

MICHIGAN

38

MARYLAND

10

MICHIGAN ST

34

PURDUE

21

N'RTHW'STERN

24

MINNESOTA

20

WISCONSIN

24

IOWA

24

OT

NOTRE DAME

35

CLEMSON

32

As I pointed out in previous
posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the
spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any
prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is
considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential,
play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes
out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the
starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach
(health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is
the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of
what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $
Q&A” tab at the top of this post.)

1

2

3

Final

ILLINOIS

10

17

17

27

NEBRASKA

7

21

35

42

The Cornhuskers are 2-2 and
are coming off a tighter than expected victory over a mediocre Southern Miss
team. QB Tommy Armstrong is adapting to new HC Mike Riley’s pass oriented
offense well enough, but is still, and probably always will be, prone to making
poor decisions at critical moments. And the ‘Huskers defense has been subpar.
Illinois has surprised many this season as they are 3-1 at this point. The
record isn’t all that surprising as the three victories were against lower tier
opponents, but the Illini have looked dominating at times in these games,
something that hasn’t happened in the past few seasons under recently dismissed
HC Tim Beckman. Beckman’s firing for off the field incidents one week prior to
the start of the season was a blessing in disguise. His replacement and former
OC, Bill Cubit, is a better HC and that’s showing this season. In fact, I’d
give the coaching edge in this game to Cubit, but not by much. Like Cubit,
Riley is very good at dialing up plays that can move the football. But I give
the talent edge to Nebraska in this one. I look for Illinois to fall behind by
halftime, but hang in there until late in the game. I figure Illinois QB Wes
Lunt to throw a late interception which leads to Nebraska putting the game out
of reach with the final touchdown.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Nebraska by 6 1/2, so there is a good chance that this prediction
will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

INDIANA

7

14

14

21

OHIO ST

14

35

42

56

A battle of unbeatens here.
Indiana fans thought that might be enough to draw College GameDay to the
Hoosiers’ campus. Er… maybe if Indiana’s 4-0 record wasn’t compiled against a slate
full of patsies. The party’s over for the Hoosiers. Ohio St. has been
struggling, but that’s by Ohio St. standards. The Hoosiers would love to have
such struggles. Indiana has been winning, so I’ll give ‘em credit for that. But
the offense, which is Indiana’s only hope under the (HC) Kevin Wilson regime,
has been good, but not as great as usual. And the defense, which is the thorn
in Indiana’s side under the Kevin Wilson regime, has been bad, but not as
terrible as usual. Ohio St. has struggled offensively- again, by Ohio St.
standards - but a game against Indiana is just what the doctor ordered. Indiana
will score, they always do, but Ohio St. will score more. Much more. I look for
Ohio St. QB Cardale Jones to guide the Buckeyes to a four touchdown cushion by
the end of the third quarter and for backup J.T. Barrett to help increase the
lead in the fourth quarter.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Ohio St. by 21, so this prediction will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

MARYLAND

0

3

10

10

MICHIGAN

10

24

31

38

I don’t think Michigan will
be flat for this one. They’re just starting to hit their stride and it’s the
conference opener against a team that beat them last year. In fact, after the
last few seasons, I don’t think Michigan will be flat very often at all this
season. A dominating performance against BYU last Saturday just confirms how
important good coaching is in college football. Michigan is back. Maybe not all
the way back-I’ll need to see more to stand firmly behind that statement- but
so much closer to back than they were under the last regime. And Maryland is
coming off a trouncing at the hands of West Virginia. HC Randy Edsall is
playing spin the bottle at the QB position- which is never a good sign -and not
finding much success. Which, by the way, speaks to the aforementioned importance
of good coaching. Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh had every reason to yank his
starting QB, Jake Rudock, after the first couple of games. But he stuck with
him and even emphatically supported him during press conferences. And it’s now
paying off as Rudock turned in a solid performance against BYU. Maryland’s
defense is porous, Michigan’s offense is “grind it out” methodical and is
playing with attitude. I look for Michigan to grind out a methodical and
convincing road win here.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Michigan by 16, so this prediction will most likely qualify as
a play.

1

2

3

Final

MICHIGAN ST

7

17

24

34

PURDUE

7

7

21

21

The line is coming down now,
but the oddsmakers opened this one at Michigan St by 24 1/2. I dunno, Purdue HC
Darrell Hazell isn’t exactly a genius. In fact, he can make some very
questionable decisions at times. But I keep seeing progress in his team, subtle
as it may be.I didn’t particularly care
for the idea of giving his starting QB, Austin Appleby, the hook. But after
seeing Appleby’s replacement, David Blough, play against Bowling Green I can
see why he went in that direction. Blough did OK for his first start. Purdue
suffered a tough loss against a MAC opponent last Saturday, and they’re far
from the level of Michigan St., which is currently ranked #2 in the nation. But
I’ve got a hunch the Boilermakers hang with the Spartans through three quarters
and keep the final score closer than what Vegas is predicting. For one, I doubt
Michigan St. is gonna be taking the Boilermakers too seriously. And for two,
Michigan St.’s resume doesn’t look as great as their ranking now that Oregon
got trounced last Saturday. The Spartan’s looked weak in the secondary last
Saturday and QB Connor Cook, despite all the accolades, isn’t always an
accurate passer. Not that Purdue is in position to exploit any secondary with a
redshirt freshman QB making his first road start. But still, I don’t think
Purdue is as bad as perceived and I don’t think Michigan St. is as good as perceived.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Michigan St. by 21 1/2, so there is a good chance that this prediction
will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

N'RTHW'STERN

3

10

17

24

MINNESOTA

0

10

17

20

I like this matchup; one of
the two best in this week’s conference slate. It’s hard for me to trust
Northwestern after last season’s up and down performance. But the Wildcats sure
seem to be playing well so far this season. Last Saturday’s game against MAC
opponent Ball St. was more of a nail biter than was expected, leaving me all
that much more apprehensive about the Wildcats. And a freshman QB is certainly
cause for distrust. But the Wildcats are playing good defense and they’re
facing a team that’s struggling on offense. Minnesota likes to run the ball but
they’re having trouble doing so. Part of the problem is that third year
starting QB Mitch Leidner struggles as a passer and defenses are loading the
box as a result. Until Leidner proves capable, Minnesota’s running game is
gonna be outnumbered. The strange think about Leidner is that he’s been
relatively weak as a passer since he won the starting job two seasons ago. Despite
all of the time he’s had to improve, I don’t think he’s any better now than he
was then. But, like Northwestern, Minnesota does have a good defense. At the
beginning of the season I figured Northwestern to win this one, but I also kinda
considered it to be an upset. I don’t feel that way now; an NW win would not be
an upset at all. So far, Minnesota isn’t as good as I thought they’d be, and so
far, Northwestern is better than I thought they’d be. I don’t foresee much
offense in this one and like that Northwestern is at home.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Northwestern by 4 1/2, so there is virtually no chance that
this prediction will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

WISCONSIN

0

7

14

24

IOWA

7

17

17

24

I like this matchup, too.
Both QB’s are playing lights out. Maybe the two best in the conference right
now. I don’t trust Iowa for the same reasons I don’t trust Northwestern—they
were inconsistent last season. In fact, Iowa has been inconsistent the past few
seasons now. Just when I think the Hawkeyes are a decent team, they turn in a
clunker. But so far, Iowa has been above expectations in just about every facet
of the game. Why, I’m not sure. The Hawkeyes were godawful at times last season
so I don’t know what changed. All I know is they’ve been playing well against
not great, but certainly not bad, competition. The win against Pitt is better
than anything Wisconsin can brag about. The Badgers lost their opener to highly
regarded Alabama and then disposed of three cupcakes. Alabama is turning out to
be not as good as usual, and the three victories against the cupcakes weren’t
as convincing as the “run up the score” days of former HC Brett Bielema. Like
Harbaugh at Michigan, Wisconsin has a new HC who is a former QB, and it’s
paying dividends. Badgers QB Joel Stave, who had his confidence shaken last
season, is throwing as well as anyone in the conference and could be considered
the highlight of the Badgers offense. The O-Line is OK, but not the road
graters that Wisconsin’s line is typically known for. Both teams are playing
good defense, and neither team has a big name on offense, although there are
players who are starting to make a name for themselves. If the game was at
Iowa, I’d pick the Hawkeyes to win. But Camp Randall is one the toughest places
to get a road win, so I’ll take seven points either way in this one.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Wisconsin by 7, so it is very possible that this prediction will
qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

CLEMSON

0

7

14

32

NOTRE DAME

7

21

28

35

This is another big test for
the Irish and I’m pretty sure they see it as such. I was incorrect in picking
against Notre Dame the last time they faced an upper echelon ACC team. I wasn’t
sure about QB Deshone Kizer, who got thrown into the fray after Notre Dame’s
starter was lost for the season to injury. Kizer handled himself well in
leading the Irish to victory in that one against Georgia Tech, and played ok
against last Saturday’s mulligan, UMass.Kizer’s not perfect, but he ain’t bad, either. If the Irish are to meet
this season’s lofty expectations, he’ll need to improve, and I expect he will.
But right now he’s still kinda raw. Notre Dame has been struck by the injury
bug but they still have lots of talent taking the field; a solid defense, one
of the better O-lines they’ve had in a while, great wide receivers and a
pleasant surprise at RB in C.J. Prosise. But as usual, they play a brutal
schedule as they head into a stadium where road wins are rare and face a highly
ranked team in Clemson. I don’t have much to go on when evaluating Clemson ‘cuz
unlike Notre Dame, the Tigers played a nonconference schedule that’s downright
embarrassing. They padded their stats and solidified their status against a non
FBS school and a “fresh meat” FBS member (why not just schedule the local high
school team while you’re at it?) before struggling against a Louisville team
that’s now 1-3. So all I really have to go on is the Louisville game and
preseason hype, which mostly highlights QB Deshaun Watson and a solid defense. So
based on the struggles against Louisville, and my overvaluing a high preseason ACC
rating in the the last go around, I’m inclined to think Clemson isn’t as good
as advertised. But as many teams do, the Tigers did schedule a bye last
Saturday to give themselves extra time to prepare for ND. And opposing QB’s
usually play well against the Irish. If the game were at Notre Dame I’d have
the Irish winning by more here. But on the road I look for Notre Dame to take
an early lead and have to fight off a spirited comeback to get a big road win
in this one.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Notre Dame by 1, so it is unlikely that this prediction will
qualify as a play.

ATS

FTC
DOLLARS

In this section I track the
results of my Crystal Ball selections that qualify as “plays” ATS (any
prediction that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve
also included the results of some unsuspecting prognosticators (conference
games only) that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC”
dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section, please refer
to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.

As I mentioned in a previous
post, I’m down to three on-line prognosticators this season, all from BTN.
Worthy competition though, as two of the three were in the money last season
and finished at the top of the standings.

ATSPLAY STANDINGS

LAST SATURDAY

TOTAL

FTC $

W

L

T

W

L

T

FROM THE COUCH

0

0

0

0

0

0

$0

BRENT YARINA (btn)

0

0

0

0

0

0

$0

SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)

0

0

0

0

0

0

$0

TOM DEINHART (btn)

0

0

0

0

0

0

$0

NOTRE DAME

I predict Notre Dame games
along with the Big Ten conference games. Other than the occasions when Notre
Dame plays a Big Ten team, these predictions aren’t included in the
standings/comparisons as my competition doesn’t make predictions for Notre Dame
vs non-Big Ten conference games. Listed below is my stats for Notre Dame games
that aren’t included in the standings.

PLAYS

SPREAD RECORD

CLOSEST

WITHIN 7

STRAIGHT UP

W

L

T

W

L

W

L

W

L

W

L

0

1

0

0

3

0

3

1

2

2

1

SPREAD RECORD-Simply
displays the ATS record.

STRAIGHT UP-
Theoutright winner, disregarding
the spread.

WITHIN 7-This
category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points
of the final score differential. Why does this matter? Because one can never
lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is
about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.

CLOSEST -
It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate as
the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan
wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the
closest category because the spread (7-6=1)
was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into
overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7”
category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.