Having been cut back in 1983, and expanded in 1995, in 2010 East
Belfast lost two Castlereagh wards to South Belfast (essentially
shifting that part of the boundary a mile and a half north),
and gained five Castlereagh wards from Strangford (essentially the
town and surroundings of Dundonald). This made the new
constituency 2.3% less Catholic, and 2.4% more Protestant, than
the old.

East Belfast's population (on the old boundaries) in the 2001 census was
79,621 (lowest of the 18 constituencies).

The average age was 39.988 (highest of the 18 constituencies).

7.49% described themselves as Catholic (lowest of the 18
constituencies); 29.98% as Presbyterian (6th highest), 21.79% as
Church of Ireland (4th highest), 9.16% as Methodist (highest in
Northern Ireland) and 10.69% as members of other Christian
denominations (also highest in Northern Ireland). 21.59% were
"no religion or religion not stated" (2nd highest).

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections
onto the new boundaries. Figures for the old boundaries can be
found at the bottom of this page.
NB also that the Conservatives got 1.4% in both 2007 and 2005, and
supported the UUP candidate(s) in 2010 and 2011.

This was an impressive comeback from the DUP and also impressive
consolidation for Alliance, who won two seats in one constituency
for the first time since 1982, having of course taken the
Westminster seat here from Peter Robinson in 2010. Alliance gained
from the PUP's former leader Dawn Purvis, who lost out in her bid to
get returned as an independent by 934 votes to the UUP's Michael
Copeland. With 11 parties and two independents, this was the most
politically diverse choice of candidates for any constituency in the
2011 election.

2011 local government election

My projection of the votes cast in Victoria, four Pottinger wards,
Castlereagh East and most of Castlereagh Central is as follows:

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

The surprise result of the election, and the only seat to change
both party and MP. In a generally duff year for the DUP, Robinson
did particularly badly; Long doubled her vote from the 2007
Assembly election, and more than tripled it from Alliance's 2005
total. These votes, if cast in an Assembly election, would give
Alliance and the DUP two seats, and the UUP one, with the last
seat between a third Alliance candidate and a second UUP
candidate.

The UUP's disastrous
failure to balance their candidates here cost them a seat, with the
DUP picking it up despite a decline in their own votes. The PUP's
successful defence of the seat held by their late leader, David
Ervine, took many by surprise (including me). Outgoing MLA Michael
Copeland (UUP) was 517 votes behind the DUP's Robin Newton on the
final count.

East Belfast is made up of 11 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 7 wards in the Victoria DEA,
and 4 of the 6 wards in the Pottinger DEA [Ballymacarrett,
Bloomfield, Orangefield, and The Mount]), and 9 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (all 6 wards in the
Castlereagh Central DEA, 2 of the 7 wards in the Castlereagh East
DEA: [Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet], and 1 of the 5 wards in the
Castlereagh West DEA: [Hillfoot]).

Extrapolating from the local government elections is very
difficult because the East Belfast constituency breaches three
local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable
adjustments, we get these figures for the whole constituency. The
DUP would have won three seats on these votes, the UUP two, and
Alliance one.

Analysis: Better balancing from the DUP here would certainly
have seen them win an extra seat, probably from Alliance; as it was,
Robinson's 4830 surplus went 2943 to Newton, electing him, but only
1230 to Toan, dooming him to elimination. Rodgers managed to halve
the gap between his own tally and that of running mate Michael
Copeland from 789 to 354 by the final count, but it was not enough.

East Belfast had lost 11.53% of its electorate in the great
electoral
register shake-out, varying from 17.28% in The Mount ward of
Belfast to 6.86% in the Hillfoot ward of Castlereagh. 12
constituencies lost fewer voters, 5 lost more.

Not a very surprising result, indeed quite a close reproduction
of 1997. Even a single pro-Agreement candidate running against
Robinson would have had difficulties. If this had been a six-seat
Assembly election, the DUP would have won three, and Alliance and
the UUP one each, with the PUP probably beating the UUP for the
last seat.

This page has been developed with the support of a
project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the
Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this
page or, in particular, other pages of this website are
those of the author and not necessarily shared by The
Electoral Commission.