Oct. 3, 2012

Written by

The Associated Press

MADISON — Ever since the recession shook up the Wisconsin economy, being a liberal politician here has been a bit dicey.

Democrats lost a series of elections, from the U.S. Senate where Russ Feingold got toppled by a tea party Republican, to the governor's office where Scott Walker won twice in two years, as anxious voters responded to the conservative message of austerity and smaller government in tough times.

That's what has made the strong showing of Tammy Baldwin in this fall's Senate race all the more surprising.

Baldwin, a Democrat from Madison consistently ranked among the most liberal in Congress over past 14 years, has mounted a competitive campaign against one of the best known names in Wisconsin politics, former four-term Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson. Thompson has been emphasizing the popular conservative themes, but for weeks she has been running ahead.

Now, the question is whether her standing is only temporary, and can withstand an assault on her liberal record in the campaign's final weeks.

A new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday showed Baldwin with a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Thompson, a gap that falls in the poll's 3.3 percentage point margin of error. She held a 9-point lead in the same poll two weeks ago.

The latest poll of 894 likely voters was done Sept. 27 through Sunday.

Baldwin's lead dropped because of a shift in independent voters, said Marquette pollster Charles Franklin. Baldwin held a 12-point edge with independents two weeks ago, but in the latest poll their support is evenly split between the two candidates.

Thompson and his backers like Karl Rove are running millions of dollars in television ads portraying Baldwin as "too extreme" for Wisconsin, a state that twice in the past two years supported conservative darling Walker. The national conservative group Americans for Prosperity as well as the National Republican Senatorial Committee launched new attack ads against Baldwin on Wednesday.

Similar attacks on political liberalism helped weaken Feingold and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett in 2010. It's not clear whether they are still as effective now that the economy has improved somewhat and state voters have not clearly embraced the GOP's presidential candidate, Mitt Romney.

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"What makes the state great is we are unpredictable," said Democrat Tom Nelson, the Outagamie County executive and former state Assembly member.

Three months ago, Baldwin being elected to the Senate seemed far-fetched to some, as the message of frugality trumped the idea of a large and active federal government. Baldwin has long advocated for universal health care and government efforts to address social problems.

But Wisconsin has a long history of veering between the left and right.

In 2006, Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle easily won re-election and Democratic U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl faced only token opposition. Then the recession hit, along with a mood for belt-tightening. Republicans took advantage with Walker's win and Ron Johnson's defeat of Feingold and also took control of the Legislature.

In a troubling sign for Republican candidates like Thompson, the Marquette poll shows independents' view of the economy has improved over the summer.

Independent voters like Jake Westerhof epitomize Democrats' hopes for a shift in their favor.

The 43-year-old attorney from McFarland said he voted for Walker in 2010. "I thought he was going to be the best for the economy at that point," he said. But he said he thinks Republicans have moved too far to the right, and he's voting for Baldwin because of her "progressive policies."

Of the GOP, he said, "It seems like the whole party has been hijacked."

Democratic strategist Sachin Chheda said Thompson's ads that picture Baldwin as scowling, angry and more liberal than former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appeal mostly to the Republican loyalists.

Baldwin's spots, which have portrayed Thompson as someone who cashed in on his government experience by making millions in the private sector in recent years, are appealing to independents, Chheda said.

But Republican strategist Mark Graul said Baldwin's surge was the result of greater spending on television ads and now will give way as more Republican spots hit the airwaves.