FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Repeatability - Running BacksDavid Dorey
July 20, 2005

With running backs flying off the board in drafts this summer, you'd think that they are all no-miss picks with little risk. Ends up that they have been among the more consistent fantasy values in recent years but that is "recent years". The lack of any rookie running backs in the last two seasons seems to coincide with an increased consistency of Top 12 players repeating the next year. 2002 witnessed an unprecedented event - all Top 6 players from that year went on to remain in the Top 12 the following season. Not a dud in the bunch and 2003 was another good year with only Lewis missing time from his legal problems and Green falling. Otherwise, it was a banner season again for repeating. The 2000 and 2001 seasons are far more similar to what historically occurs.

All player listings to follow were created using the standard performance scoring as seen on The Huddle statistics. This awards 1/10 for yardage and six point touchdowns.

2000

Pts

2001

Pts

2002

Pts

2003

Pts

2004

Pts

1

M Faulk

372

M Faulk

337

P Holmes

365

P Holmes

365

S Alexander

297

2

E James

332

P Holmes

269

R Williams

317

A Green

337

T Barber

293

3

E George

284

A Green

256

L Tomlinson

299

L Tomlinson

336

L Tomlinson

282

4

M Anderson

252

S Alexander

255

C Portis

281

J Lewis

303

C Martin

271

5

A Green

246

C Martin

236

S Alexander

267

C Portis

271

D Davis

255

6

F Taylor

240

C Dillon

225

D McAllister

262

S Alexander

262

E James

252

7

R Smith

240

L Tomlinson

212

T Barber

258

D McAllister

257

C Dillon

248

8

R Watters

232

R Williams

211

T Henry

251

F Taylor

228

R Johnson

219

9

C Garner

231

A Smith

208

C Garner

249

R Williams

222

W McGahee

201

10

C Martin

231

S Davis

185

E George

222

E James

214

B Westbrook

199

11

L Smith

224

G Hearst

180

F Taylor

214

T Henry

210

P Holmes

195

12

S Davis

223

D Rhodes

180

A Green

212

S Davis

203

C Portis

194

13

T Barber

218

A Thomas

172

J Lewis

211

T Barber

179

R Droughns

192

14

J Stewart

210

T Barber

164

M Faulk

205

D Davis

179

W Dunn

189

15

W Dunn

201

L Smith

159

D Staley

199

M Williams

178

A Green

188

16

J Lewis

197

S Mack

158

C Dillon

196

M Faulk

172

M Pittman

187

17

C Dillon

194

M Alstott

154

M Bennett

192

K Barlow

167

D McAllister

178

18

R Williams

191

C Garner

152

C Martin

184

C Martin

162

J Bettis

174

19

J Bettis

184

E George

145

G Hearst

179

R Johnson

159

T Jones

174

20

T Wheatley

175

D Staley

141

W Dunn

177

B Westbrook

153

F Taylor

169

21

E Smith

175

J Bettis

136

M Shipp

175

T Duckett

146

K Jones

161

22

J Anderson

171

M Pittman

132

J Stewart

167

E George

142

N Goings

156

23

M Pittman

158

W Dunn

130

A Smith

164

M Pittman

139

E Smith

155

24

J Allen

152

M Smith

129

E James

149

A Thomas

137

C Brown

154

The Following season:

Remained Top 6

Became 7-12

Became 13-24

Not in next Top 24

Top 6 became

Avg.

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Top 6

3

3

2

2

4

2

7 to 12

1

1

0

1

2

2

13 - 24

1

1

1

3

0

1

Duds

1

1

3

0

0

1

7 to 12 became

Avg.

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Top 6

1

0

1

2

1

1

7 to 12

1

3

1

0

2

0

13 - 24

2

2

2

2

2

2

Duds

2

1

2

2

1

3

Top 12 was:

Avg.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Top 6

4

4

2

3

6

4

7 to 12

2

3

2

2

3

1

13 - 24

3

1

2

3

2

5

24+

2

2

4

2

1

2

Rookies

2

2

2

2

0

0

The Top 6 the last two seasons have returned over half to the Top 12 the next year - an aberration considering history that rarely witnesses more than half of any position seeing players repeat great performances. Even more notable - there were no duds from the Top 6 in the last two years which may heighten the confidence people have when drafting tailbacks.

The 7 to 12 range rarely witnesses a player step up into the very top tier and surprisingly, almost none of the players stay in the top 7 to 12 range. They typically split between slipping down to an RB2 range if not to more of a back-up value.

Looking backwards from the Top 12, there were usually six to eight of the Top 12 that turned into a player that still ranked in the Top 24 the next year. Then the last two seasons has seen 11 and 10 players remain in that top 24 bracket the following year - an amazing consistency that has bent the general rule.

Notice too that the Top 12 normally had two players that were rookies each season and yet the recent drought of top caliber tailbacks from college is mirrored in their absence the last two seasons. While the "Big 4" running backs are normally being drafted in the range of 20th or deeper, history indicates that two of them have an excellent shot at ending in the Top 12. The last two years has obscured the typical optimism that rookie runners have historically brought to fantasy drafts, even though this year had three taken in the first five picks - an all-time NFL record.

Repeat Reliability

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1

A Green

5

3

12

2

15

2

P Holmes

2

1

1

11

3

L Tomlinson

7

3

3

3

4

S Alexander

4

5

6

1

5

T Barber

13

14

7

15

2

6

C Martin

10

5

18

18

4

7

M Faulk

1

1

14

16

8

R Williams

18

8

2

9

9

E James

2

24

10

6

10

F Taylor

6

11

8

20

11

C Dillon

17

6

16

7

12

C Portis

4

5

12

13

E George

3

19

10

22

14

D McAllister

6

7

17

15

J Lewis

16

13

4

16

S Davis

12

10

12

17

D Davis

14

5

18

T Henry

8

11

19

W Dunn

15

23

20

14

20

R Johnson

19

8

21

B Westbrook

20

10

22

J Bettis

19

21

19

23

M Pittman

23

22

23

16

24

W McGahee

9

25

D Staley

20

15

26

M Williams

13

27

K Barlow

17

28

M Bennett

17

29

T Jones

18

30

K Jones

21

31

C Brown

24

Finishes that were 25th or deeper each year were not listed.

The table to the right shows the year end ranking for each of the listed players and is sorted in a manner to suggest the most reliable "repeaters" in fantasy drafts over the last five years. Until last year, Ahman Green was money in the bank and over the last four seasons, Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander are in a class of their own for consistently repeating great seasons. Barber comes off a career best year and his reality is that in almost every draft in the last five years he has been taken well below his eventual value.

Top 12
Running Back Repeatability
50% - 33%

While 2003 had nine palyers return to the Top 12, 2004 went back to the standard number - 6 of 12. When you remove Tomlinson, Holmes and Alexander from the equation, it really stands at 33% (3 of 9). That's not a very high number for how coveted running backs are in drafts though the reality is that you'll need two and maybe three as starters compared to the standard one for quarterback. Those backs in the top 12 are perhaps the main difference makers for fantasy teams because no position has the steep decline in total points that running backs do. And yet, the run continues on and on well after the first dozen are drafted.