Alti Camelus
estimated 33% and said “I guess that Vipul’s estimate is likely to be on the low size because people in general are not good at estimating these things”
on 2017-03-12

Michael Dickens
estimated 40% and said “Priors on this are pretty high. I might make a different prediction if I knew more about Vipul, like is he asexual? Is he a hermit? (A hermit with an active internet connection, at least.) Why does he believe he’s so unlikely to get married?”
on 2017-03-13