Weather Blog: Snow Exits And Weather Pattern Check

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! A fast moving, but intense band of snow delivered a fresh blanket of white to southeastern Wisconsin Friday morning. In today's blog we discuss how long snow showers linger, and look ahead using the LRC to another system early next week.

Let's start with area snow totals thru Friday morning. The total in Milwaukee of 3.8" was measured at Mitchell International Airport. This brings the season total to 26.2".

Here are a few additional snow totals reported by viewers and the NWS.

3 mi S La Grange(Walworth Co) 4.0"

Grafton 3.7"

Pleasant Prairie 3.5"

Racine 3.5"

Sheboygan 3.2"

Pewaukee 3.0"

Jackson 2.8"

West Bend 2.5"

If you have a snow total to share please post it to the Wisconsin Weather Updates Facebook page, just click here.

The center of low pressure will meander across Wisconsin through Friday afternoon. With the low nearby snow showers will be possible into late afternoon or early evening. The HPC surface forecast map below is valid at 6pm Friday. The green line near Milwaukee is the forecast area for possible snow showers.

The snow showers will add to our current snow totals, but most locations will see additional snow accumulations of 1" or less. Final snow totals should fall in the 3 to 5 inch range.

This weekend may be perfect to play in the snow -- how about some cross country skiing, snow shoeing, or downhill skiing? Outside of some flurries Saturday, the weekend looks dry.

We are keeping tabs on another storm system for early next week. The weather pattern early next week can be traced back to previous parts of our cycling weather pattern or the LRC. The LRC is a weather pattern theory we use to help make forecasts days, weeks, or months in advance. The very basic principle of the theory states that the weather pattern sets-up in the fall and then cycles or repeats. The cycle duration as stated back in late October for this pattern is around 51-53 days.

Knowing this information let's us do a quick LRC pattern check. The 500mb(or middle of the atmosphere) forecast map shown below is valid early Monday morning. This forecast map shows an upper level low pressure area over the Plains, a general trough or low pressure area over eastern Canada, and another trough about to enter the Pacific Northwest.

The upper low in the Plains is the feature of note on this map for Wisconsin. Tracing this feature back 52 days in our cycling weather pattern lands us on January 5, 2013. The archived 500mb map from January 5 has the feature in the Plains, and our two troughs mentioned above as well. This is just a quick example to show you where we are at in the LRC, and remember these maps represent the large scale flow in the middle of the atmosphere.

The current medium range computer models that we use point to this system at the surface bringing a chance of a wintry mix or snow to southeastern Wisconsin sometime Monday or early Tuesday. At least one model keeps the bulk of the snow to the south. We will continue to monitor the trends as new data arrives.

Before we arrive at next week it's time to dig out from our current snow event. Again on and off snow showers will be possible through Friday evening.

For the latest weather information watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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