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Know what they need to do? Put the clue under a hidden cover and present it as they do with any other item and leave 'em guessing. Tony probably would have committed seppuku on the spot if somebody like Kass bid $20 and won the clue upon reveal while he, Spencer and Tasha were hoarding their $500s.

Didn't see the episode yet, but I'm very surprised they took out Jefra. She wouldn't have had a snowball's chance in Timbuktu of winning in either a final 2 or a final 3, against any of the people left. I don't see anybody else left who is hated by enough of the others to lose to Jefra in the final.

Tony became mostly worried about a 4 vs. 2, women vs. men situation. Jefra had sort of plotted against Tony last week, which Spencer played up tonight. So, with Tasha being immune, the logical woman (to Tony) to remove was Jefra.

Good on Spencer. He knew how to instill more paranoia in Tony who really did not think it through. If Tasha was so set on a woman's alliance, she would not have agreed to vote for Jefra. And Spencer could beat Tony in challenges and in votes, especially since Tony's alliance really has to be questioning him now (well they should have been for a while now, but still).

Someone needs to tell Tony that you only need to Rob Cesternino the vote if you're at the bottom of the alliance. Even if what sketchy Spencer said was true, worst-case scenario he can idol himself into the Final 4.

If Spencer or Tasha wins this season, it's going down as one of the biggest epic fails in the history of Survivor. Even worse than Vanuatu. We're talking about Guatemala or Gabon levels of fail here.

(Although Sugar was a goat no matter who she went along with, so maybe Guatemala would be a better comparison.)

Tony's best, maybe only, case to present to the jury is that he was always the man at the wheel. If he had let Trish form a female alliance then she beats him in the end even if her coup had failed. (Tony couldn't have used the idol on Trish because of Tasha's presence)

What Tony needed to do was make sure Tasha was voting against Jefra. That would have told him that the women weren't together so he could have gone after Spencer. But Tony's paranoia prevented him from talking directly to Tasha so he delegated. Big mistake.

PS. I think Sugar wins against Crystal and Suzie.

Who else but Kenny votes for Crystal? Randy would have to vote for Suzie (imagine that!)Matty, Corinne, Bob and Charlie are likely to be forced to vote for Sugar.

Of course that would probably constitute the worst F3 ever (not that we had was much better but Bob was a good guy at least.)

You said it. The two people with the best chance of beating Tony at FTC are Spencer and Tasha. He had Spencer right in the crosshairs, a clean kill. But Tony is so caught up in the game Spencer easily derails him, even with two HIIs in his pocket, so he turns on Jefra and leaves his closest ally Trish out of the loop, AGAIN! Too damn funny.

I don't think Tony's leaving any "allies" out of the loop is of too much concern to those "allies", because they all think (incorrectly) that they will be able to make Tony look bad at the final TC if they are up against him.

What Tony needed to do was make sure Tasha was voting against Jefra. That would have told him that the women weren't together so he could have gone after Spencer. But Tony's paranoia prevented him from talking directly to Tasha so he delegated. Big mistake.

That was precisely what was so perplexing about his move. His logic was that the girls were getting together, so to combat this... He was going to have to rope in one of the girls. There isn't anything stopping Tasha from saying, "Screw him, I'm voting for Spencer" if the girl's alliance existed. Once Spencer told him that Tasha was on board, he should've known the lay of the land.

(Although I guess that would start the line of reasoning of trying to figure out if Tasha was just playing Spencer. If there was a girls alliance, then Tasha would've probably "lied" to Tony too.)

I'm actually re-watching Gabon right now and am not sure who exactly would win in a Sugar/Crystal/Susie final. I think most of it would depend on who in the bitter Kota 4 + Randy alliance would pick. I recall Randy calling Susie "the worst person out here" when he was deciding who to idol out of the game, so he actually seems like more of a Sugar vote.

Although given Corinne's hatred of Sugar, I could see her convincing her alliance to begrudgingly give it to Crystal (even though no one likes her). Gabon is probably one of the strangest seasons of Survivor ever, so it's really difficult to tell. Maybe Sugar wasn't a 100% goat but her road to winning would've been really, really specific.

Well, he was worried they had already taken control and would be in total control after Spence left.

The point I made though was that, with Tasha voting against Jefra, it would be enough to show the other three girls that they couldn't trust her. He and Woo could have eliminated Spencer and the two votes against Jefra would have killed the all-girl alliance. The five would have united against Tasha.

I don't see it that way at all. Kass, Trish, and Jefra have not been voting with Tasha all along, so why would it be a trust issue that she didn't vote with them *again*? But with Spencer gone Tasha would have no allies left and would almost certainly gravitate toward a female alliance the *next* time around, and, contrary to not trusting her, the other three would be happy to have her.

>I'm actually re-watching Gabon right now >and am not sure who >exactly would win in a >Sugar/Crystal/Susie final. I think >most of it would depend >on who in the bitter >Kota 4 + Randy alliance >would pick. I recall >Randy calling Susie "the worst >person out here" when he >was deciding who to idol >out of the game, so >he actually seems like more >of a Sugar vote.

Randy facing that F3 would have blown a gasket, but Crystal and Sugar were like his mortal enemies.

>Although given Corinne's hatred of Sugar, >I could see her convincing >her alliance to begrudgingly give >it to Crystal (even though >no one likes her).

Gabon is one of the worst seasons ever because production was its biggest pre-merge player. Having 2 pick 'ems and a "random" draw in one season is simply ridiculous. Crystal and Kenny became in charge because they kept losing.

Gabon is one of the worst seasons ever because production was its biggest pre-merge player. Having 2 pick 'ems and a "random" draw in one season is simply ridiculous. Crystal and Kenny became in charge because they kept losing.

Really? That's strange what you say about production. On my re-watch, I kept trying to find ways that they fixed this season and was having trouble doing it. It's a strange season how they just left a lot of it to the players.

Like, they initially picked the tribes themselves.And then they did the ranking game and had a pick'em from there.Then, after the F10 feast, they just open a box and there's a bag of rocks there, in which the players themselves all drew from. It was kind of weird seeing Randy (or whoever) holding the bag himself while they drew. I'm used to seeing Jeff do it, which always makes me suspicious a little.

Having a second swap is where I'd call foul a little (poor Marcus), but I still can't figure out how production could've fixed it for the Fangs. It could've easily shook out randomly the other way and Kenny is gone there. I think we could also argue the first swap might've been done a round too early to save Crystal and make the challenges more competitive (even though they weren't). But that's not horrible "manipulation," considering the crap the show has done in other seasons.

I don't think Gabon is bad, though. It's just weird. It has one of the strangest juxtapositions of alliances where I think it's an interesting study.

Matty joins up with Randy/Dan/Susie right before the swap.Swap happens, Matty is stuck with Kenny/Crystal/G.C. Randy abandons Dan/Susie when backed into a corner.Matty makes a Matty/Ken/Ace/Sugar deal against Crystal.Kenny lies to Sugar, they vote out Ace. Matty doesn't seem to mind that much afterwards.Another swap. Kenny/Crystal pick up Susie. Matty tells Sugar about the lie.

And somehow this weird Matt/Ken/Crystal/Susie/Sugar alliance now has the numbers. And then somehow Bob ends up winning anyway. It's so... weird.

Back then, when a season had a pick 'em to start, those tribes stayed together for the whole pre-merge. It's seasons where production arranged the tribes that we always saw swaps mid-course.

We had 4 Seasons with Pick 'ems at the start:Thailand = No Swaps.Palau = No SwapsExile Island = No swaps

Gabon not only had a second swap, it had the additional random draw. I'm not saying any of them were fixed but when you roll the dice often enough, you will get the right combination.

That second pick 'em put Crystal and Kenny in a position where winning challenges didn't matter anymore: They had Kota players to throw in the fire: Ace, Jacquie and Kelly at first and then Marcus after the draw. Even if they were so pathetic that they had to vote out GC, the losing streak gave them the numbers. There is only one word for that: ABSURD.

PS. It isn't an accident that we don't see pick 'ems anymore to start a season. Gabon showed them that it almost always leads to one tribe playing "Stupid Survivor" like Charlie said. Only Exile Islands saw balanced tribes come out of it. Chewing Gum was totally overmatched until Suck Job decided to throw a challenge. Ulong picked all the mactors and was pathetic. Caryn picked Willard mostly to protect herself, to have another pathetic player ahead of her in the booting order.

PPS. That fake merge was obviously a last minute production interference. There aren't many tribal challenges that could be won by only one player like Matty did. That challenge was originally designed to be the first individual challenge.

Eh, the pick'em/first swap is perfectly fine. Just because they picked the tribes at the beginning doesn't mean that a swap is inherently unfair or dodgy in any way. Not gonna argue the second shuffle, though. That immunity challenge was clearly individual. It really came down to where the random element shook out (hey Susie!). Turned out it was 3-2 Fang on one side and 3-2 Kota on the other.

That second pick 'em put Crystal and Kenny in a position where winning challenges didn't matter anymore: They had Kota players to throw in the fire: Ace, Jacquie and Kelly at first and then Marcus after the draw. Even if they were so pathetic that they had to vote out GC, the losing streak gave them the numbers. There is only one word for that: ABSURD.

But that's like saying every season that had a swap is ABSURD. -In Africa, it put Ethan/Kim/Clarence in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore. They could pick off Silas and then do Teresa or Frank if they wanted.-In Marquesas, it put the Rotu 4 in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore. They could pick off Rob, Vee, and Sean if they wanted.-In Vanuatu it put Ami/Leann/Scout/Eliza/Lisa in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore.

...And the list goes on. Obviously, every situation will have its stickier elements (which was true in Gabon with G.C.), but the general principle is the same. At some point in every season with a swap, losing immunity isn't a completely bad thing for an alliance. And yes, I realize in these examples that losing wasn't the only thing that gave those alliances the numbers. What I'm arguing is the game theory component of a Survivor swap.

The fact that Fang lost those challenges doesn't change the logical process behind all of these situations. Especially for a clearly-overmatched tribe like Fang, their only basic choice is to stick it to the dominant Kota alliance by whatever means necessary. What else are they supposed to do? It's not like they were throwing the challenges or anything. The fact that they did eventually ditch Kelly says that they weren't all about dumping everyone anyway.

And besides, the real reason why the inner-circle Onions lose that season is because they're too stupid to realize that splitting the vote between Dan/Susie might spook Susie. And all because Corinne was worried about being idol'd out of the game by Dan. They're just another example of an alliance who didn't really know how to play defense.

(I like that we derailed this into a Gabon discussion in the middle of Cagayan. Ah well.)

The thrown challenge is the main flaw in the game of Survivor. Plainly put, it's an abomination that a tribe can win by losing.

In Africa, Ethan was smart to see the flaw in the idea immediately and he got his alliance to throw the challenge so kudos to him. In all the other seasons you mentioned, the swap happened very close to the merge and with a delayed merge in Thailand, the players couldn't count on gaining the advantage by throwing challenges. What if Yasur had eliminated Bubba and Rory only to learn that they weren't merging? After losing one challenge, they couldn't risk throwing the second. The same happened in China where Peih Gee and Jaime threw the first to get rid of Aaron but realized they had to win the next one or it could mean having to vote each other out.

The problem with Gabon's swap was it's timing: There were SIX votes between the first swap and the merge, enough to wipe a whole tribe. The funniest thing was that Fang was too dumb to even think of throwing challenges! Their ineptness saved them from their stupidity.

You asked what Fang could have done. Easy: Pick better players when they had the chance.

Yes, the onions' split vote was dumb but Suzie would have flipped no matter what. The edit put the blame on Corinne and Marcus but it was productions doing just by creating that new situation.

Yeah. I think it's telling how the Onions were able to rope in Randy fairly smoothly but somehow it is so impossible for them to get Susie? I know Randy hated a lot of the old Fangs so he would come more naturally, but surely they can just feed her some Final 3 deal. Alliances do that all the time in Survivor.

Instead they split the vote between her and Dan. C'mon Onions. She's going to run away the first chance she gets now.

I think main crux of the strategy discussion for Gabon lies in what one thinks of Kenny's decision to pick Kelly instead of Bob during the pick'em.

I think it was fine. The cold, bitter truth of tribal shuffles is that if you have the opportunity to secure numbers by screwing over a good player in another alliance (like Jacquie), then you have to do it. You have to pick up the other team's bottom-feeders, even if it's just temporarily. It sucks for Jacquie, but swaps will forever be an unfair component of Survivor.

Thailand had an optional swap, where anyone who wanted to could switch tribes. No one did, but it was there. Would have been damn funny if one entire tribe had decided to switch tribes, leaving them with one big tribe and no opportunity to pull the faux merge.

Actually, I liked Thailand. It had some lousy twists and some off the wall drama, wasn't perfect, but I consider it a good season.

The one I absolutely hated was Africa. Great setting and some wonderful cultural stuff, it had it's good points. First tribal swap, and man they really ambushed them that time. But it amounted to a tribe of embeciles vs. a tribe of dunces, just horrible gameplay. (On the other hand, it was the perfect season to introduce the Gufu Award; most gufu-driven season yet.)

There's a world of difference between a voluntary swap and an imposed one. Anyway, any idiot would have known that the mutiny offer would have failed because the players had no connections on the other side. It's weird that they tried the same lame idea in PI.

They were the better players. Marcus had his onions while Ace had Sugar. Jacquie was playing both sides. I think the season would have been much better if that conflict had erupted like the editing suggested it would.

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