Letter from Africa: Nigeria’s bad luck party?

In our series of letters from African journalists, Sola Odunfa in Lagos looks at how Nigeria’s political elite already have their gaze firmly fixed on 2015.

BBC News Africa

Being the incumbent should, ordinarily, stand President Goodluck Jonathan in good stead in the run-up to next year’s presidential election but at the moment he is not even sure of having a strong, united party behind him.

At the president’s inauguration three years ago, the governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which he heads, had a comfortable majority in both chambers of the National Assembly.

He could have any bill passed into law, notwithstanding opposition parties’ views. That is no longer the situation.

Floor-crossing by its legislators has wiped out the PDP’s majority in one chamber – the House of Representatives.

Although the party retains its dominance in the other chamber – the Senate – the president cannot pass any bill into law without co-operation by opposition party members.

This is one reason why this year’s federal budget is sitting unattended in the assembly.

This time last year the ruling party had 19 of the 36 state governors.

By the end of the year, five of them had formally defected to the main opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), and more may be waiting to do so.

This means that, because the governors control their legislatures, President Jonathan cannot get through any amendments to the constitution – under Nigeria’s federal system, two-thirds of state parliaments must approve any such changes.

It also mean the president will have to work harder for votes in those states next year, should he run for president.

Political bombshell

This leads on to why the ruling party is now in a crisis situation.

The major cause is the president’s undeclared intention to run for another term in office next year.

This is why the tenure of the party’s national chairman, Bamanga Tukur, became a problem for many party leaders, who accused him of arrogance and failure to consult.

He has now resigned after months of pressure; his opponents, angered by his perceived support for President Jonathan’s re-nomination, had been demanding his removal.

While the storm within the party was gaining momentum, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, political benefactor of Mr Jonathan and a strong influence within the party, wrote a damning letter last month cataloging alleged personal shortcomings of the president and his style of governance.

The letter was more devastating than if it had been written by the leader of the main opposition party.