How will the Sox offense function without Ellsbury

Friday

Mar 28, 2014 at 12:01 AMMar 31, 2014 at 11:47 AM

The first Red Sox hitter of the 2014 season will be Daniel Nava when he steps into the box to face Orioles starter Chris Tillman on Monday afternoon at 3:05. From a personal accomplishment perspective, Nava’s journey to this point is nothing short of amazing – for Boston the significance of having Nava batting lead-off will be the club’s need to figure out a way to compensate for the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury.

The 2013 World Champions lead the majors in runs scored with 853 (57 more than the second highest total – which belonged to the Tigers) and no small contributor to the success of Boston’s offense was their ability to steal bases – which started with Ellsbury. Boston stole 123 bags in 2013 with an impressive 87% success rate. The Yankees’ new centerfielder had an on-base percentage of .355 with a league-leading 52 stolen bases and was caught stealing only 4 times. By contrast, while Nava’s 2013 on-base percentage of .385 was near the top of the league and there is little doubt that he should be able to run up a pitch count with his selective eye, he was on base close to 200 times last season and did not have a single stolen base.

Statistics aside, we all realize that replacing Ellsbury’s production on the bases is not going to be an easy task – the concern that I have is that the Sox will lose the ability to play small ball and pick up a run here and there because they are missing that rare element of speed. In that regard the 2014 Red Sox look to be built more in the image of some of their forefathers in that they may need to rely more on the long ball to score runs. This was a team that hit 176 homeruns last year and it will be interesting to see how many more they hit this year if Will Middlebrooks is locked in from the beginning of the season, Xander Bogaerts has the break-out season that many expect, and Dustin Pedroia rebounds from the thumb injury he sustained last April; however, while the Sox may have the potential to hit more homeruns you have to wonder if they are going to morph into an Earl Weaver dream team – relying on pitching and a three-run long ball to carry them to victory. Unfortunately, this philosophy reminds me of last year’s Tigers team. It is this type of club that always seems to struggle in the post season – when pitching and defense rule the day and scratching out a run every once in a while can lead to a Duck Boat Parade (or whatever parades they put on in other cities).

Naturally, from a financial savings stand-point (Nava will make less than $1M in 2014, Ellsbury will make more than $20M) only, the Sox make this trade every time. Nava can reach base at an advanced level. The question I have is whether or not he’ll jumpstart the Red Sox offense and give them that early 1- 0 lead that takes a little heat off their pitching staff and puts a strain on the opposing pitcher. It will be interesting to see where the Sox rank in total runs in 2014 – one thing is certain, they will not lead the league in steals without Ellsbury.

The first Red Sox hitter of the 2014 season will be Daniel Nava when he steps into the box to face Orioles starter Chris Tillman on Monday afternoon at 3:05. From a personal accomplishment perspective, Nava’s journey to this point is nothing short of amazing – for Boston the significance of having Nava batting lead-off will be the club’s need to figure out a way to compensate for the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury.
The 2013 World Champions lead the majors in runs scored with 853 (57 more than the second highest total – which belonged to the Tigers) and no small contributor to the success of Boston’s offense was their ability to steal bases – which started with Ellsbury. Boston stole 123 bags in 2013 with an impressive 87% success rate. The Yankees’ new centerfielder had an on-base percentage of .355 with a league-leading 52 stolen bases and was caught stealing only 4 times. By contrast, while Nava’s 2013 on-base percentage of .385 was near the top of the league and there is little doubt that he should be able to run up a pitch count with his selective eye, he was on base close to 200 times last season and did not have a single stolen base.
Statistics aside, we all realize that replacing Ellsbury’s production on the bases is not going to be an easy task – the concern that I have is that the Sox will lose the ability to play small ball and pick up a run here and there because they are missing that rare element of speed. In that regard the 2014 Red Sox look to be built more in the image of some of their forefathers in that they may need to rely more on the long ball to score runs. This was a team that hit 176 homeruns last year and it will be interesting to see how many more they hit this year if Will Middlebrooks is locked in from the beginning of the season, Xander Bogaerts has the break-out season that many expect, and Dustin Pedroia rebounds from the thumb injury he sustained last April; however, while the Sox may have the potential to hit more homeruns you have to wonder if they are going to morph into an Earl Weaver dream team – relying on pitching and a three-run long ball to carry them to victory. Unfortunately, this philosophy reminds me of last year’s Tigers team. It is this type of club that always seems to struggle in the post season – when pitching and defense rule the day and scratching out a run every once in a while can lead to a Duck Boat Parade (or whatever parades they put on in other cities).
Naturally, from a financial savings stand-point (Nava will make less than $1M in 2014, Ellsbury will make more than $20M) only, the Sox make this trade every time. Nava can reach base at an advanced level. The question I have is whether or not he’ll jumpstart the Red Sox offense and give them that early 1- 0 lead that takes a little heat off their pitching staff and puts a strain on the opposing pitcher. It will be interesting to see where the Sox rank in total runs in 2014 – one thing is certain, they will not lead the league in steals without Ellsbury.