Jon Couture: Two best settle to battle it out in the World Series

For the first time since 1995, baseball's two best teams in the regular season will stage the World Series. First to win four gets to be the first three-time world champions of the new millennium.

JON COUTURE

The Red Sox are facing themselves.

Not literally, of course. That would have needed to involve the Dodgers, not a St. Louis Cardinals team without a single former Red Sox. But a team that doesn't win with a collection of high-price, high-talent mercenaries. A team here behind its pitching and timely offensive heroics.

A team sitting on an MLB-best 104 victories for the year. A team backed by a fan base with a case for the best of the game (even if they can be a bit eager to tell you they are.)

How deep does it go? Consider this quote from earlier this week:

"It is about people, and the bond that forges professional and personal relationships. €» I've covered professional sports since the late 1970s, and I've never seen a team like (this). I've never seen a team of players so close, so unselfish, so enthusiastic about reaching out."

Sounds an awful lot like the bearded Red Sox, a group growing tighter knit by the day. But it was written by Bernie Miklasz, a nearly 25-year veteran of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, about the Cardinals. And it's hard to argue.

For the first time since 1995, baseball's two best teams in the regular season will stage the World Series. First to win four gets to be the first three-time world champions of the new millennium. Sure, the Dodgers would have been fun. Exhausting, but fun.

But how could we ask for anything more?

St. Louis doesn't come into this series with the offensive pedigree of Detroit, especially not with a .210 batting average in the postseason. (Remember what I said about pitching getting them here?) But they were the top-scoring team in the National League, and are similar to the Tigers in that they don't steal bases — 48 total including postseason, ahead of only Detroit.

So how do they beat you? To put it simply, the opposite way the Red Sox do.

While Boston was second in pitches seen per plate appearance in the regular season, owing to their "tire the starter, draw walks, get in the bullpen" strategy, the Cardinals were 27th of the 30 teams. Their 259 hits on first pitches were second most in the majors, while the Red Sox ranked last in rate swinging at the first pitch, and rate swinging overall.

Pete Kozma, speaking before clinching Game 6 against the Dodgers, described the approach as "selective aggression." A fancier way of saying attacking your pitch, but it's worked.

And situationally, they've been tough to top. That aforementioned .210 batting average in ninth of the 10 playoff teams, but it jumps to .286 with runners in scoring position. (Tied with the Tigers, oddly enough, for best in the postseason.) Fastball mashing Carlos Beltran, 6-for-8 with 10 RBI. Matt Holliday, 3-for-10. Matt Adams, 3-for-8. Kosma, just 5-for-25 in October, is 2-for-3 in the big spots.

The lineup goes deeper than them. (Second baseman Matt Carpenter, who hit .292 on off-speed stuff in the regular season, had 55 doubles.) But there are questions with some big pieces. Yadier Molina is struggling, but is the heart-and-soul (and hit .352 on fastballs per Inside Edge). David Freese has struggled all year, but in a short series remains patient and dangerous. The returning Allen Craig as well, who could solve St. Louis' need for a designated hitter far better than most NL teams do.

They didn't do well against lefties in the regular season, but just pounded Clayton Kershaw for 10 hits and seven runs to cap the NLCS. With both Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy looking iffy against the Tigers, I'm going with the aggressors, prior stats or not.

Edge: St. Louis.

Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn were just shy of strikeout-per-inning pitchers this season, each topping 200 innings. Michael Wacha, the rookie who's had great success with his curveball in the postseason, is better than a strikeout per inning in his limited time.

I'm tempted to call that a section and give the Cardinals the edge, but that wouldn't be any fun.

Everything said above about Cardinal hitters taking advantage with men on base doubles for the Red Sox, but with a caveat. David Ortiz, Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia were a combined 3-for-25 with runners in scoring position against the Tigers. Thankfully, two grand slams were enough.

They struggled when the great Tiger staff attacked them with breaking stuff. Opponents have hit .154 on Wacha's curve. They've hit .173 this season on Wainwright's, his favorite putaway pitch to lefties and righties. There's a dropoff to Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, but there's nothing that says fastball/sinker guys can't have success against Boston.

The Sox will lose either Mike Napoli or Ortiz for the three games at New Busch, which could be an issue if Victorino's struggles continue from the ALCS. For a lineup billed as so deep, with Jacoby Ellsbury playing so well, there's been a shocking amount of holes in October.

Does St. Louis have as imposing a 1-2-3 as the Tigers did? No. Are the Red Sox stronger 1-9? I think so. But a staff of attack-the-zone pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff, one the Red Sox have seen little off, is the formula to beat them. That's good enough for me.

Edge: St. Louis

Twenty-one innings. Twenty-two strikeouts. Two runs. Around here, the work of Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Craig Breslow in October need no introduction. The heart of a bullpen that's allowed three earned runs in 32 postseason innings.

The statistics at the top of the Cardinal relief corps are somewhat less impressive, but they pop elsewhere. The catcher's mitt.

Carlos Martinez: Average fastball of 97.5 mph, to go with a nasty slider that's gotten all but one of his October strikeouts.

Closer Trevor Rosenthal: Average fastball of 96.4 mph that's been missed on a third of the swings at it this month, plus a even more elusive changeup.

John Axford: Average fastball of 96.1 mph, on which hitters are 1-for-10 in the playoffs.

Kevin Siegrist: Average fastball of 95 mph on which hitters have batted .151 this season, plus an effective curveball for the lefties.

Lefty Randy Choate and righty Seth Maness don't throw with near the heat, but they've chipped in 5 1/3 scoreless innings. Even Edward Mujica and Shelby Miller have contributed at the end, certainly more than Boston's final options have.

And yet, I'll still take the Sox corps. Impressive as St. Louis has been, the Sox are fastball hitters, first and foremost. They could certainly be kept off balance, but I'll take my chances.

Edge: Red Sox

Boston's edge stealing bases has already been mentioned, but it should come with a couple caveats. Molina's thrown out 42 percent of potential basestealers across the past five seasons, and that's considering that teams try stealing fewer bags against the Cardinals because he's so good. It will be very interesting to see if the Sox — whose 11 steals this month are equal to all nine other postseason teams combined — dial back their aggressiveness with him lurking.

"We're still trying to get our arms around it, trying to maybe be opportunistic in certain situations," John Farrell said on Tuesday. "We don't know when they're going to be yet. But he's certainly a force to be reckoned with back there."

Also, the Cardinals' refusal to steal doesn't mean they're a station-to-station team. Only six teams took the extra base on a hit more frequently than the Cardinals. (The Sox ranked 18th.)

The Sox do have a significant edge defensively, with St. Louis having some notable problems in the middle of the infield with Matt Carpenter at second and (if he's forced into the field) Daniel Descalso. To say nothing of Matt Holliday in left.

"I think our team has improved very much this year," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said, asked about defense right out of the blocks. "Outfield-wise, I think guys are better than what they're given credit for. There's always room for improvement."

It's hard to imagine any team riding higher than the cardiac Red Sox, but the Cardinals get a good, long look. In recent years, no team can match their October pedigree, nor how they've risen to the occasion in the biggest games. But Boston's simply pulled too many games from the fire to not have the 'advantage,' such as it's called.

Edge: Red Sox

So little to choose between the two, it will come down to execution €» all the caveats of predictions. Of course.

I like St. Louis.

I think the Cardinals have starting pitching good enough to keep the Red Sox hitters off balance, and the relievers that Detroit didn't. I think their offense is deeper than people think, and that the return of Craig — if he's anywhere near 100 percent — solves the DH issue that National Leaguers struggle with. On top of that, I think they annually find a way to win when it counts.

That's not to take anything away from the Sox, or discount their chances. The way they manufacture runs, the way they can slug €» a third World Series title in the past decade would hardly be a surprise. I just think at some point, a year of overachievement has to catch up with them. I don't like the starters after Jon Lester, and I worry that underbelly of the bullpen will be called upon to do too much.

The 2013 Red Sox have been spectacular. They'll never be forgotten by anyone who watched them.

I just think they're going to run one round short.

Cardinals in 6.

Jon Couture covers the Red Sox for The Standard-Times. Contact him at jon.couture@bostonherald.com, or through 'Better Red Than Dead' at Blogs.SouthCoastToday.com/red-sox

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