We were reminded in 2008 just how difficult it is to win as a Democrat in Alaska. For the first time in nearly three decades, Mark Begich proved that Democrats really can win there, although we should note it took running against a convicted* felon to pull off the victory(barely).

So, here's what we know: Unless Palin gets in the race (unlikely because Palin has more to lose than she's lost already), Murkowski is on her way to victory..that is unless she commits first-degree murder. Even then, the race would be a coin-flip given what we know about 2008.

Although Berkowitz's name is being tossed around, it's more likely that he'll run for Don Young's House seat after narrowly losing to him in 2008. Young, who's in his mid 70's and growing more and more unpopular, makes for an easier target than Murkowski in the Senate. A Hays Research poll from March '09 shows that 72% of Alaskans view Murkowski favorably, even if she is known as "liberal Lisa" by some right-wingers.