- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......

- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.

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- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 30 September 2010

Stalled under 1150 SPX

SPX has just been drifting sideways this week really. I've been looking for anything in the way of short term patterns but haven't found much. We do have a fairly solid looking declining resistance trendline though and that is worth noting. Here it is on the ES 60min chart:

I'm beginning to think that we may see the next significant interim top here rather than in the 1170 - 1180 area. I've a couple of reasons to think so. The first is that we have been stalled here a while, and now that 1130 SPX has broken, this is the last really significant resistance level on SPX below 1200 SPX. Looking at the SPX weekly chart we're also at a significant level on the weekly RSI.

During the October 2007 to March 2009 bear market, RSI on the weekly chart never rose above 55. When it did rise above it in June 2009, to about 58, it was a signal that the bear market was over, and it was also the level of a significant interim top. We may be seeing a similar signal now, on both counts, though the move down over the summer didn't quite make the 20% decline necessary to qualify as a cyclical bear market.

The second reason I'm wondering about a significant interim top here is that while SPX has been stalled below 1150, USD has kept falling, and emerging markets have kept rising. I've been watching a rising wedge on the EEM 60min chart and we are now almost at the next likely reversal level. This is a key chart for overall market direction and you'll note that EEM bottomed in May rather than July, leading the SPX and indicating that the SPX summer decline wasn't likely to last. Also worth noting on this chart is that EEM has now exceeded the April high:

Vix bottomed a while ago and I have a sloppy rising channel on the 30min chart:

Looking at oil, I'm seeing a likely rising channel with the lower trendline of the previous rising channel as the upper trendline of the new channel. If so then the next upside target is in the 79.6 area, though as I write oil is stalling at the previous September high at 78:

Today is the last day of September and of the third quarter. The Stock Trader's Almanac says that this is generally a day of institutional portfolio window dressing and heavy selling, with the Dow down 8 of the last 12 years. There was a 4.7% rally on 30th September in 2008 though, so this isn't necessarily a down day of course.

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