Saudi Arabia’s Game of Thrones: Mohammed bin Salman’s rise to power and its consequences for the region

Following his surprise appointment as crown prince back in June, 32-year-old Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud has been thrust into the spotlight. The events surrounding his rapid rise to power sound like something straight out of Hollywood, involving secretive plots and political intrigue, however, the consequences of his dramatic ascent to power could be very real for Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.

In a flurry of cabinet changes which aimed to consolidate his power, the King appointed his experienced and respected nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, as crown prince and his young, relatively unknown son, Mohammed bin Salman, as his deputy. In Saudi Arabia the crown prince, as well as being the heir to the throne, is incredibly powerful, possessing almost total responsibility for the Kingdom’s economic and security policies.

While these reports haven’t been verified and have been denied by Riyadh, sources close to the king allege events unfolded as follows: During what Mohammed bin Nayef believed was a standard meeting, the King used the pretext of concerns over the crown prince’s rumoured drug addiction, which he allegedly had developed as consequence to injuries sustained from a failed assassination attempt, to force him to relinquish his titles as crown prince and interior minister. This cleared the way for deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman to take over, which was done in a ceremony broadcast on state television where the former crown prince and key members of the royal family publicly pledged their support and allegiance. Since then Mohammed bin Nayef has supposedly been placed under de-facto house arrest.

This move has put Mohammed bin Salman in an incredibly strong position. Keeping his roles as defence minister and president of the Council of Economic and Development affairs, and with no new deputy crown prince appointed, not only is he next in line to the throne, he is now perhaps the most influential man in Saudi Arabia. While Saudi’s system of absolute monarchy means the King is legally the highest authority in the Kingdom, bin Salman has been granted unprecedented control of the state’s domestic and foreign policies by his ailing, octogenarian father, ostensibly making him the real power behind the throne.

These domestic reforms, however, are not without risks. Maintaining a balance between the need for liberal reforms and the demands of the deeply conservative and reactionary forces which exist in the country has long been the backbone of Saudi stability. The rapid nature of bin Salman’s modernisation efforts is likely to upset this balance and may generate a significant backlash. While the crown prince has already shown that he is capable of using his political influence and Saudi Arabia’s extensive security apparatus to stifle any political competitors, the real risk lies in the possibility of a violent reaction.

The Islamic terrorist group, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), already enjoys a degree of sympathy and support from elements of the Saudi population. While they have struggled to maintain a presence in the Kingdom following government crackdown, the Jihadi group has recently benefited from the Saudi led war in neighbouring Yemen. Instability and lawlessness have allowed AQAP to establish strongholds in the south and east of this war-torn state, which could potentially be used to plan and carry out attacks on the Saudi side of the border. Discontent brought about by bin Salman’s reforms may boost their support and increases the risk of further attacks occurring, with potentially disastrous results for the stability of Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.

Whatever happens, the near future is likely to be one of significant change and upheaval. Given Saudi Arabia’s extensive regional influence, the repercussions of its game of thrones will reverberate far beyond the Kingdom’s borders.

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Ian Metzger

Ian Metzger is a final year undergraduate in History and Politics at the University of Liverpool. His main interests include international relations and security, particularly in the middle east, and cold war history