Top contenders for the first College Football Playoff

This catch by Florida State wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin won the 2014 BCS National Championship. The Seminols are among the teams are most likely to make the playoff and have a similar shot next season.(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports)

The Bowl Championship Series had its flaws, but the postseason format never lost its flair for the dramatic. After 16 years of existence, the BCS went out with a bang: Florida State topped Auburn, 34-31, to secure a winning season and the 2013 national championship.

Come next fall, the Football Bowl Subdivision will trade in the BCS for the College Football Playoff. Come January 2015, a selection committee will select the nation's four best teams and settle the title on the field, with a pair of national semifinals feeding into a championship game. It's a nice step forward.

It's not too early to think about which four teams will be set meet at the Rose Bowl and the Superdome in the first semifinals of the College Football Playoff era – the Football Four. In announcing its initial members, the selection committee listed many of its criteria, including conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparing common opponents and injuries.

Here's USA TODAY Sports' best guess as to the final foursome come next January:

1. Florida State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Ohio State

In this 2014 projection, Florida State again ends the regular season undefeated and is picked as the top national seed by the College Football Playoff selection committee. With a healthy Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Oregon takes the Pac-12 and is picked second.

After a sour close to this past season, Alabama takes back the SEC crown from rival Auburn. A loss during the regular season keeps the Crimson Tide outside the top two, however. Rounding out the quartet is Ohio State, which takes the Big Ten.

2. Oregon (2013 record: 11-2). Why No. 2? Because the Ducks could have gone undefeated this season had quarterback Marcus Mariota not been slowed by a knee injury in November. (Photo: Scott Olmos, USA TODAY Sports)

3. Alabama (2013 record: 11-2). Why No. 3? Because a disappointing close to 2013 could be all the motivation a still-deep Alabama roster needs to reclaim the national championship. (Photo: John Reed, USA TODAY Sports)

4. Ohio State (2013 record: 12-2). Why No. 4? Because coach Urban Meyer and his staff have recruited at such a level as to offset a number of losses to graduation and the NFL. (Photo: Raj Mehta, USA TODAY Sports)

No. 5 Auburn (2013 record: 12-2). Why No. 5? Because if Auburn was this good in 2013, next season could be special. Consider this idea: Gus Malzahn's team will be even stronger on offense due to another offseason spent working in his system. (Photo: Daniel Shirey, USA TODAY Sports)

10. UCLA (2013 record: 10-3). Why No. 10? Two-way threat Myles Jack for one. But with QB Brett Hundley returning, the Bruins have a triggerman for an offense and team inches away from a major breakthrough. (Photo: Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY Sports)

21. Central Florida (2013 record: 12-1). Why No. 21? Because it's going to be tough to match this year's success without quarterback Blake Bortles, who opted for a potential spot among the top 10 in April's draft rather than returning for his senior season with the Knights (Photo: Rob Foldy Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports)