Is anybody prepared for a President Trump?

The time has long since passed to start a serious discussion about how Canada should respond to a Trump presidency.

Not long ago, anyone raising this topic would have been met with laughter and eye-rolls. But in a dangerous world, denial is a coping mechanism — not a strategy. Despite recent setbacks, Donald Trump may well become the next leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

Our country has been so closely engaged with the United States for so long that it’s hard to know where to begin, so let’s start with the most urgent question: How should Canada respond to American “refugees” showing up on our doorstep?

If Trump wins, these refugees could begin arriving in three short months — probably on November 9, the day after the 2016 U.S. election. There likely would be a spike two months later, on January 20, 2017, when Trump would officially take office. Trickles of refugees could become waves — even tsunamis — if Trump acts on his promise to target groups he deems undesirable, from Mexican “rapists” to ordinary Muslims.

So let’s take them in. From the Underground Railroad to the Vietnam war, Canada has had a long and proud history of sheltering Americans facing danger at home. We should step up again.

History shows that new Canadians, including those from the United States, contribute mightily to our country. Not long ago, we worried about a southbound ‘brain drain’ from Canada. A northbound brain gain to Canada would enrich us enormously, even under such heartbreaking circumstances.

Uncertainty is the only certainty at the moment. But we have defaulted to an ostrich strategy, and this must come to an end.

We’d need processes and procedures to handle the influx, but, as with the Syrians of today, we’d have an obligation to take in these Americans. And we should get ready for them now.

On the economy, we’d need a Plan B — and quickly. The intertwined Canada-U.S. economy is rooted in NAFTA, which Trump insists on calling “the worst trade deal in history.” He pledges a “total renegotiation” or termination under Article 2205. This would cause vast economic disruption; there is no easy alternative to NAFTA. But now is the time to start looking for new export markets and diversifying our trading partners to ease any coming blow.

In fact, we could expect significant economic disruption even if a President Trump did not withdraw from NAFTA. One of Trump’s few clear policy promises has been to build a wall along the United States/Mexico border. While he’s made no suggestion yet of a second wall along the forty-ninth parallel, a protectionist Trump administration certainly wouldn’t make trade and travel across the world’s longest undefended frontier any easier.

That, of course, assumes that the border will remain undefended. Surely we could imagine the next American Commander-in-Chief placing tanks, missiles and more along our border, even if initially only for show. Trade wars have a tendency to lead to real wars, and sporadic flashpoints surely cannot be ruled out. More than two centuries after the War of 1812, how would we reply if a President Trump inches even briefly across our frontier? The idea is no longer quite so fantastic. (Heck, maybe we should worry about how a capricious Trump would react if the Jays win another World Series.)

All these challenges and many, many more would require us to invest significantly in our foreign service, especially at our embassy in Washington, D.C. This may sound counterintuitive, since Trump would be the most undiplomatic president ever. But Canada would desperately need to build relationships with officials in a Trump administration, with Congress, with other American leaders — and with friends and allies around the world. The victories would be small, but precious.

Uncertainty is the only certainty at the moment. Things could turn out better, or they could turn out even worse. But we have defaulted to an ostrich strategy, and this must come to an end.

The potential challenge we face is like none Canada has ever encountered. We need to prepare for a Trump presidency — and we need to start now.

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