General Events

Month: August 2016

With the rise of populist Republican Donald Trump, who’s hard-line views on immigration, squishy views on conservative issues such as abortion, free trade and national security has caused some moderate Republicans–mostly Republican suburban voters in the Philadelphia, Pa. suburbs, the Atlanta suburbs, the Chicago suburbs, and swing states such as Ohio, Iowa, etc. disillusionment.

With that, some moderate Republicans have voiced their support for Hillary Clinton, which would have been seen as unlikely 15 months ago. Hillary Clinton had to move leftward politically on some issues, such as $15/hr minimum wage, opposition to free trade deals such as the Trans Pacific Partnership by democratic socialist Bernie Sanders, who transformed Democratic voting-millennials with their love of socialism.

With such prominent Republicans like Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman of California, retiring New York Rep. Richard Hanna, and others endorsing and fundraising for Clinton, the question remains whether they will deliver votes in these suburban areas for Clinton and Kaine. Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s running mate, is a centrist Democrat from Virginia who won his 2005 gubernatorial race and his 2012 Senate race by appealing to: moderate suburban Republicans who were worried about his conservative opponents: Jerry Kilgore and George Allen.

Those moderate Republicans-white collar, high income, educated, suburbanites could pull the lever for Clinton/Kaine in November and could cause Donald Trump to lose in a epic landslide.

Right now, the Republican Party is at a crossroads. The conservative establishment led by Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, former C.I.A. director Michael Hayden and others have been disgusted and perplexed by Donald Trump’s ascendant rise in what is seen as a nationalist, strongman, average everyday person campaign coming out of the woodwork.

With the GOP division deep after the Republican convention in July, which failed to show the “so-called unity” that Trump and his hard-right core wanted to see. That deep divisions inside the GOP has only caused problems for the Trump campaign-which some criticism is his fault-after all, this is the same candidate who attacked a Gold Star military family-who is Muslim. He has a outlandish personality.

Trump’s right wing campaign may actually damage the GOP in states like South Carolina and Georgia-yes those two states. Red states. Recent polls show this month Democrat Hillary Clinton closely trailing-or beating Trump in those two red states. If Trump loses those two states to Clinton, who is hardly liked based on the polls after the FBI recommended no charges on her mishandling of a private email server–then the Trump Train will officially be over.

Despite the demographic advantage for Democrats (South Carolina and Georgia has a growing urban educated white population, along with African Americans who are part of the Democratic Party constituency), for the GOP to lose prominent Southern States–would be a disaster in the making. If Trump loses the Charleston suburbs in SC, and the Atlanta suburbs in Ga. (a lot of moderate suburban Republican women voters there), it would be a disaster in the making.

It looks like Georgia, a ruby red state, is on it’s way of turning into a purple state–a battleground state in 2016.

With Republican businessman Donald Trump tanking in the polls after the Republican National Convention, which was not attended by key top named Republicans due to Trump’s bombastic, tough language and rhetoric. He is tanking against Hillary Clinton, who had her own flawed campaign retool after the Democratic Nat’l Convention in Philadelphia.

A new poll released last week by the Atlanta Journal Constitution, the city’s newspaper, showed Clinton beating Trump 44% to 40% and with third party candidates Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein Clinton leading 41% to Trump’s 38%, to Johnson’s 11% and Stein’s 2%. Questions remain whether Johnson or Stein would have ballot access. Most third party candidates have a hard time receiving ballot access, media recognition and money.

Another poll released by JMC enterprises on Monday showed Clinton leading Trump 44% to Trump’s 37%. It is clear: Georgia is a swing state. Why?

First, the demographic changes in Georgia. The black population in the state is growing rapidly and has been a key constituency for the Democratic Party. Hispanic voters are growing in the state and they have been moving to the Democrats, due to the Republicans’ language and rhetoric on immigration. Also, college educated white voters have replaced the rural, older conservative leaning voters that Democrats have been courting.

Before the 2000’s, Democrats had to rely on suburban conservative-leaning voters. They helped Zell Miller, and Roy Barnes win the governorship in their reigns. After 2002, however, those voters started to move to the Republican Party, especially on issues such as same sex marriage, abortion, and other culturally conservative issues.

Since then, Democrats have tried to win Georgia at the state and federal level. In 2014, Democrats tried to appeal to Georgia voters by selecting Jason Carter, the grandson of the former President Jimmy Carter, for governor, and Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former conservative Democrat Sen. Sam Nunn, who from 1984 to 2008 was a perennial vice presidential shortlist finalist.

Carter and Nunn lost, but they appealed to minority voters and educated voters-but not enough white rural voters to win.

If the GOP loses Georgia, it would be because of a presidential year, demographics, and even some suburban conservatives who fear Trump is too toxic for the party and the country.

If the GOP loses Georgia to Hillary Clinton, they would be absolutely doomed.