I know it sounds nice to think Deutsche bank will have to pay $14 billon, but that is just what the DOJ is requesting, not what the bank will have to pay. Both sides will negotiate a settlement. At the moment, Deutsche could not pay that kind of fine anyway.

Deutsche only has reserves ranging from $5.5 billion to $7.2 billion by estimates. So the $14 billion would be reaching. Citi Bank was hit for $12 billion and ended up paying $7 billion after negotiations. So Deutsche is at the refusal stage, and will enter negotiations soon to find an actual settlement number.

I find the number $14 billion curious. It’s the same amount the European Union is asking Apple to pay in back taxes…. Maybe a coincidence, but my alien self says no way!!! It is no coincidence that Deutsche is a German bank, Germany is one of the main decision makers for the EU. Could this be a veiled message from the U.S.? You tax our corporations, we tax yours? Sounds like it to me.

Germany cannot allow Deutsche to fail, the Global Financial System cannot allow Deutsche to fail. So would Germany bailout Deutsche? Absolutely! They would have no choice, Deutsche failing would be 100 times worse than Lehman Brothers. Eight years later and we are still facing the possibility of, and the same reason for the 2008 meltdown, and it’s only grown much larger.

My guess, Apple’s fine will be reduced, and Deutsche will settle for much less. In this game of global financial chicken, it depends on who blinks first, the US or EU…..