Wintry, Wet, or Both: Breakdown of NJ’s Messy Coastal Storm

Ready or not, here it comes! As I type this, the first band of our coastal storm (nor'easter) is lapping up against southwestern New Jersey. It will slowly but steadily spread northward through the state, producing a wintry mix for most. While snow and ice accumulation remains likely for northwestern New Jersey, it's still looking like just rain along the coast.

I've decided not to update the snow map I posted Thursday night. I am comfortable with forecast — 3-6" for NW NJ and nothing for the coast. Confidence remains admittedly shaky as temperatures will hover precariously close to the magical freezing mark for the duration of this storm.

The bottom line of the storm forecast remains the same. No matter what falls from the sky, travel conditions will get quite sloppy by Thursday evening's commute.

Given the wide variety of advisories, expected weather conditions, and forecast accumulations, I've decided to breakdown the storm's timeline and impacts by county (and sometimes by partial county, based on geography and elevation). Find your county and check your specific forecast — hopefully this level of details helps you plan your day! Just keep in mind, there is an inherent margin of error (approximation) in every forecast I give. Please "blur your eyes" a little bit as you're reading the totals and time. (I've never tried this kind of update before — let me know what you think in the comments section below!)

Atlantic County

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 1 p.m. to 11 p.m. Thursday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

No snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Bergen County (eastern)

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then rain is expected by around 9 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 2 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and eventually rain is expected by around 10 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 3 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Burlington County (northwestern)

Wintry mix will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 3 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

Burlington County (southeastern)

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 p.m. Thursday to 3 a.m. Friday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow accumulation is accumulation here, although a light glaze of ice is possible.

Camden County

Snow and wintry mix will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 3 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow accumulation is accumulation here, although a light glaze of ice is possible.

Cape May County

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 1 p.m. to 11 p.m. Thursday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain will arrive by around 9 a.m. Thursday. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

No snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Cumberland County

A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain (perhaps with some snowflakes mixed in) will arrive by around 9 a.m. Thursday. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 7 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

Essex County (eastern)

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then all rain is expected by around 7 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 1 inch is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Essex County (western)

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then all rain is expected by around 9 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 3 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Gloucester County

Wintry will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday. A transition to rain is expected by around 3 a.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 7 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow accumulation is accumulation here, although a light glaze of ice is possible.

Hudson County

No advisories are in effect for Hudson County!

Wintry mix or snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 7 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about an inch is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Hunterdon County

Snow will arrive by around Noon Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then rain is expected by around 9 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 3 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

Mercer County

Wintry mix will arrive by around Noon Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 4 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain (or maybe some snow) is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about an inch is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

Middlesex County

Snow and wintry mix will arrive by around Noon Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 7 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain (maybe with some snow) is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 2 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Monmouth County (eastern)

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 p.m. Thursday to 3 a.m. Friday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain will arrive by around 11 a.m. Thursday. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

No snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Monmouth County (western)

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 p.m. Thursday to 3 a.m. Friday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

Snow and wintry will arrive by around 11 a.m. Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 4 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix is expected by around 10 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 4 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Ocean County

A Wind Advisory has been issued from 3 p.m. Thursday to 3 a.m. Friday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph may cause power outages, driving difficulties, and biting cold.
A Flood Watch is posted from 10 a.m. to Midnight. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may cause ponding and flash flooding issues, especially during heavier downpours.

This storm will deliver almost all wet (not wintry) weather for New Jersey's coastal counties. Rain will arrive by around 10 a.m. Thursday, with some mixing possible in the far western area of the county. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

No snow or ice accumulation is expected here.

In addition to the messy weather, we're keeping our eye on the coast. Upwards of 2 feet of storm surge may cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. High tide occurs on the oceanfront around 1 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Passaic County (eastern)

Snow will arrive by around 2 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and eventually rain is expected by around 9 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 3 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and/or rain may not fully occur before the storm ends. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 5 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

Salem County

Wintry will arrive by around 9 a.m. Thursday. A transition to all rain is expected by around 3 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 7 a.m. on Friday.

Little to no snow accumulation is accumulation here, although a light glaze of ice is possible.

Somerset County

Snow will arrive by around Noon Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then all rain is expected by around 7 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow and/or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 2 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A light glaze of ice is possible too.

Sussex County

Snow will arrive by around 2 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix is expected at some point, but precipitation may not change over to rain before the storm ends. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 6 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Union County

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then all rain is expected by around 7 p.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow and/or rain is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 9 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 2 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Snow will arrive by around 1 p.m. Thursday. A transition to wintry mix and then rain is expected by around 1 a.m. The evening commute looks pretty messy. Then the storm will taper off substantially overnight, although one more quick hit of snow is expected Friday morning. Dry weather, clearing skies, and calming winds are expected after about 8 a.m. on Friday.

Total snow accumulation of about 4 inches is expected here (although it might be hard to measure since it will be so slushy and then wet). A glaze of ice is possible too.

Wrapping Up

It's the first winter storm of the season, but certainly not the last. It's not a major storm, but certainly worth taking seriously. Be smart, stay safe!