reynolds80 wrote:This really isn't all that different from Morneau's season last year. I would not be suprised to see Gomes resurface as a fantasy force in 2007.

Sure it is, Morneau was always a very talented prospect and always performed better than Gomes. Johnny besides last year was always a .250 - .260 hitter with power that K'd way to much.

I should have clarified. While Morneau's 2005 and Gomes' 2006 have alot of similarities, they're really on a different scale. Morneau obviously has a higher ceiling, and is six months younger.

But let's look at this. Let's not forget that Morneau hit .211 in the 2nd half of 2005, and hit .230 or lower in each and every month except his sizzling April. Similarly, Gomes had a red-hot April and then has hit .240 or lower in each month since, including a .125 July.

Injuries played a big role in both players' performances.

Now, I don't expect Gomes to rebound to Morneau's .320-30 so far in 2006. Like I said, it's on a different scale. Once healthy, I expect Gomes' rebound will be more like .265-35 with a nice OBP.

Speaking of OBP, you'll notice we've only been talking batting average and homers so far. But right now Gomes has had effectively the same amount of at bats as last year:

And everything has remained constant, except he has walked more, struck out a tiny bit less, and his avg is way down. Given that he hit .282 last year while striking out a little more with the same power, I must conclude that he was a little lucky last year and a little unlucky this year.

A lot of guys do chop their K rates around age 26-28. If that happens, expect a higher batting avg and the boost in power that goes with it.

I guess this makes me the resident Gomes defender. I just think, if he's healthy, watch him closely next spring - he could be a great bargain late in a draft.

reynolds80 wrote:And everything has remained constant, except he has walked more, struck out a tiny bit less, and his avg is way down. Given that he hit .282 last year while striking out a little more with the same power, I must conclude that he was a little lucky last year and a little unlucky this year.

.

He was actually quite lucky last year with a BABIP of .360, and this year he is at .244. If he gets his BABIP up to the .280 range or so, I think he could hit around .250 or so for a year.

Even though I was really high on Gomes in the beginning of the season, I did trade him and Brandon Webb for Jason Bay right before Bay's hot streak in May where he hit a HR every day. Now I just got him back very cheaply, as just a throw-in in a trade just in case he does anything in the last 2 months of the season

Gomes should have hung it up for this season long ago. Seriously, he had a hot start but he has been brutal for a long time now. He's hitting .157/.247/.294 over his last 204 at-bats, dating back to the 3rd week of May. The D-Rays need to see the light and get him out of the lineup.

Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'