Baylor-Iowa State prediction: Will Bears or Cyclones win battle for bowl eligibility?

This Story is About...

Share This Story On...

Baylor head coach Matt Rhule lets out a yell in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Oklahoma State, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018, in Waco, Texas. (Jerry Larson/Waco Tribune-Herald via AP)

What's on the line

Baylor's goal of bowl eligibility is within reach for the Bears. Head coach Matt Rhule set the goal before the season to become bowl eligible, which would be a big improvement after last season's 1-11 campaign. It won't be easy for the Bears against a highly-improved Iowa State team. The Bears are also trying to get their first road win in more than two months. Their last road win came against UTSA on Sept. 8.

Iowa State doesn't have a shot at the College Football Playoff or the Big 12 championship. But with a four-game win streak since freshman quarterback Brock Purdy took over, the Cyclones find themselves also playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday. It would be the second-consecutive bowl appearance for head coach Matt Campbell and the Cyclones.

When Baylor has the ball

5 things Baylor fans need to know about Iowa State, including how freshman QB Brock Purdy has revitalized the Cyclones

Last week, starting quarterback Charlie Brewer proved everything was alright after he went under the concussion protocol the week prior. Backup Jalan McClendon started and played the majority of last week's game against Oklahoma State. But Brewer will likely reclaim his starting spot after some late-game heroics against the Cowboys. This will be Brewer's toughest test.

Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones stop the run better than anyone else in the league and allow just 219.5 passing yards per game, second only to TCU. The Cyclones also allow a league-low 21.2 points per game. What may pose the biggest problem to Brewer and the Bears offense is the nearly three sacks per game Iowa State averages. The Bears offensive line has struggled all season long and Brewer is often running for his life from the snap.

When Iowa State has the ball

Purdy has revived Iowa State on the offensive end, but he's just one of its three major weapons. His favorite target, Hakeem Butler, is one of the best at gaining yards after the catch and averages a conference-high 24 yards per catch thanks to his 6-foot-6, 225-pound frame. He is fourth in the Big 12 with 791 receiving yards and also has eight touchdowns.

Thanks to junior running back David Montgomery, the Cyclones are just as lethal on the ground. Montgomery averages 101.7 rushing yards per game, ranking second only behind Kansas State's Alex Barnes. Montgomery was also a top-3 Big 12 running back last season, averaging 88.2 yards per game. He will pose a problem to Baylor's run defense, which ranks last in the league and gives up 190.3 yards per game.

Prediction

Baylor is still riding high after an impressive win against a talented Oklahoma State team, but the Bears don't have the right defensive makeup to stop a rolling Iowa State offense. Baylor's run defense will struggle with a mobile Purdy and Montgomery in the backfield. It will be the Cyclones celebrating becoming bowl eligible on Saturday. The Bears will have to wait at least another week.