The World; Just Try to Imagine A Palestinian Democracy

By JAMES BENNET

Published: May 19, 2002

Correction Appended

JERUSALEM—
REFORM of Yasir Arafat's Palestinian Authority is suddenly dominating the diplomacy for Middle East peace, and as is so often true of this suffocating conflict, the debate is already narrowing to self-serving questions: Is Mr. Arafat speaking of reform simply to sustain his power? Is Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, calling for reform just to postpone peace talks? Will the Bush administration settle for cosmetic change to appease Arab states?

Reform, in short, is turning into a political football. But consider if it were a grail instead.

True democratic reform would be a gamble for everyone, but one with a potentially impressive payoff: it could create a model for ending not only the crisis over Israel's legitimate borders and even its right to exist, but also the similar, simmering doubts about Arab nations arbitrarily sketched out by Europeans on the map of the dying Ottoman Empire 80 years ago.

The Palestinian Authority is being asked to do something that American administrations have not asked of any established Arab state: to create a true democracy, with civil protections, separation of powers, direct accountability of officials, freedom of the press and speech, and transparency of governing institutions.

Many Palestinian officials and citizens are eager to take up the challenge -- perhaps a higher proportion of the elite and the average citizenry than elsewhere in the Arab Middle East. The ache for civic change was captured last week by the speed with which members of the Palestinian Legislative Council, the oft-sidelined legislature of the Palestinian Authority, responded to Mr. Arafat's invitation for proposals.

But doubts about the prospect for real change were also fanned, by the way Mr. Arafat reversed course and suggested that elections had to await the end of Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Though it is far from clear they will stand up to Mr. Arafat, many Palestinians are yearning for democracy. ''Working on the constitution, being a member of the first Palestinian parliament and being part of creating a parliamentary and democratic tradition in our society is all interesting and exciting,'' said Nabil Abu Amr, a Palestinian legislator. ''But the frustrations are even greater, because I don't want to wait forever.''

It is perhaps Pollyannaish even to conjure the scenario, at such a dark moment in Israeli-Palestinian relations. But imagine the effect on Israeli fears about Palestinian intentions, and on Arab-Israeli diplomacy, if a democratic Palestinian government sought a peace accord guaranteeing a two-state solution with Israel. Imagine the effect on Palestinian life.

To play Pollyanna for a moment, there are reasons to think this could happen, with enough work by other nations and daring by leaders on both sides here.

Among the Arabs, Palestinians are uniquely suited for such a democratic experiment, because of their bitter, close relationship with Israel, their stateless years and the intense international focus on their cause.

Nader Said, a sociologist at Bir Zeit University in Ramallah, said that the Israeli occupation had instilled in Palestinians ''their defiance of authority in general, and this sort of tendency for freedom -- wanting personal freedom, and to not be controlled.'' At the same time, he said, ''even under the worst of circumstances, Palestinians have admired Israeli democracy.'' These are experiences that Mr. Arafat and his closest associates, in exile for so many years, did not have.

Palestinians have traveled the world, and many have lived in the United States. As agriculture floundered here, the importance of education grew, partly as a path to jobs overseas. Particularly in the West Bank, Palestinians are relatively wealthy, not because of the oil that sustains elites elsewhere, but because of their own efforts and foreign assistance. The aid has led to corruption within Mr. Arafat's administration, but it also has helped develop a strong middle class outside it.

Foreign aid has helped spawn a network of civic organizations, from advocacy groups for women's rights to programs that grapple with juvenile delinquency. Labor and student unions put down roots long before Islamic organizations like Hamas.

The gamble is that elections might benefit extremists. Recent polling has shown Mr. Arafat's more secular Fatah movement and Islamist groups like Hamas each supported by a quarter to a third of Palestinians, leaving 40 to 50 percent in play.

Until now, the Bush administration has resisted European calls for Palestinian elections partly out of fear that in the present, venomous environment candidates would compete to be the most militant. At this low point for peace efforts, it might be impossible for a Palestinian to campaign in favor of a peace agreement.

In its time, so long ago now, the Clinton administration also compromised on its stated values, resisting Palestinian reform in the belief that only a strong Mr. Arafat could reach a peace agreement.

THE advocates of secular democracy have watched the current conflict with growing despair, marking the steady march of Islamic fundamentalism as more young women began covering their heads and Islamic groups scored a smashing victory in student elections at Al Najah University in Nablus. Few Palestinian leaders spoke up against suicide attacks against Israeli civilians, as they became more frequent.

Dr. Said said he used to walk on the Tel Aviv beach with Israelis, while younger Palestinians now encounter them at checkpoints. ''Palestinians 40 and above are more liberal than Palestinians below 40,'' he said.

Members of nongovernmental organizations, along with civil servants, medical workers and others have been meeting recently in Ramallah in hopes of rallying liberal, democratic forces.

The most senior Palestinian leader arrested recently by Israel was Marwan Barghouti, an official of Mr. Arafat's Fatah movement whom Palestinians regard as a potential democratic leader. Before this conflict, Israelis thought of him that way too.

Maybe the Israeli government truly regards Mr. Barghouti as a terrorist now. It says he has admitted under interrogation to being one. Maybe, as many Palestinians believe, Israel is trying to discredit and silence a popular reform-minded leader. Other Palestinians say that maybe, by imprisoning Mr. Barghouti, Israel is trying to enhance his standing in the Palestinian street, in hopes of boosting prospects for Palestinian democracy and a diplomatic settlement some day.

In 1947, Arabs rejected the United Nations plan to partition Palestine into Jewish and Arab states, and when Israel declared its independence in 1948, five Arab nations attacked. The new Israelis drove them back beyond the allotted borders, and some 700,000 Palestinian Arabs fled or were forced from their homes. Last week, Palestinians marked the day Israel declared its independence, a day they call the Nakba, or catastrophe.

As David Fromkin concluded in ''A Peace to End All Peace,'' his study of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, ''In the Middle East, there is no sense of legitimacy -- no agreement on rules of the game -- and no belief, universally shared in the region, that within whatever boundaries, the entities that call themselves countries or the men who claim to be rulers are entitled to recognition as such.''

Perhaps real democracy in the Palestinian Authority would only backfire, and would not put Nakba day to rest by easing doubts of the legitimacy of Israel's borders. Perhaps Palestinian democracy would not point the way to easing similar doubts about the borders of nations like Jordan and Iraq. Given the political and diplomatic games being played now with reform, the world may never know.

Photo: At the Jenin refugee camp, a banner honoring Yasir Arafat came down when Mr. Arafat didn't speak there. (Rina Castelnuovo for The New York Times)

Correction: May 26, 2002, Sunday An article last Sunday about the possibilities of reform in the Palestinian Authority misidentified a reform-minded Palestinian legislator. He is Ziad Abu Amr; Nabil Amr is another Palestinian reformer.