The week at Aqueduct starts off this afternoon with a pair of stakes and a two day carryover of $89,489 in the Pick 6.

The stakes action starts with the third race when a field of five will line up in the $100,000 New York Stallion Series Staten Island for fillies and mares going seven furlongs on the main track.

The John Parisella trained Sunny Desert comes into the race riding a four race win streak, her last outing a gate to wire score in the state bred Judy Soda where she drew off to win by 6 ¼ lengths, earning a career top speed fig in the outing.

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The filly was installed as the 3-5 morning line favorite, with her main rival being Lady On the Run, who was third in the state bred Iroquois in her last start, and is listed as the 2-1 second choice.

We have to contend with another chalk in the fifth race, which is the $100,000 New York Stallion Series Thunder Rumble, as Sportswriter is the 1-4 morning line favorite.

The Rudy Rodriguez trainee is coming off a fourth place finish in the state bred Hudson in which he produced a career top speed figure.

He did catch a strong group of state breds in that race including the runner up Saginaw , who has won 8 of 10 races this year.

With such short odds I am going to try to beat him with Frisky Warrior (6-1), a winner of six of his 11 career starts. The gelding comes into the race having won four in a row at Finger Lakes.

The gelding does have a win at the Big A, taking a first level state bred allowance race back in March at today's seven furlong distance. To win he is going to need a career top or a regression from the chalk, but his 6-1 morning line odds look like a better option that going chalk.

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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

Analysis: Stellaluce returns off a seven week break and makes her first start for the Levine barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The mare has not shown much in four starts this year but her last was her first go off a seven month layoff. She has faced mostly tougher than she catches here and figures to show more than she offered up last out off the bench.

Lady Gracenote made a mild late rally to finish third last out against state bred Alw-2 foes in her first start off the claim by the Servis barn. She was claimed two back out of a restricted $20K claimer where she checked in third behind repeat winner Elusive Jozi, who came back to beat $20K foes again in her next outing on Aug. 12 in the slop by six lengths. The barn is really solid with recent claims and 22% winners with horses coming back off a 46-90 day break.

Analysis: Catinatree drops two conditions here from the Alw-3 level. Last out she dueled for the early lead and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth at Philly, beaten six lengths for the top spot. Her last win came at Philly against Alw-2 foes back in June where she drew clear to win by 7 1/4 lengths. She makes her third start off the claim by the Contessa barn that took her for $50K and she looks well spotted here and the 6-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Magnificent Mia is one of two in here sent out by the Englehart barn and likely the higher price of the duo. Last out she wired the field at Finger Lakes, her seventh win in 14 career starts. Back in April in her lone go on the main track here she beat $30K non winners of three or non-winners of a race in six months. Since coming back off the long layoff she seems headed in the right direction and fits here with her best.

Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup.The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes.Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Aqueduct. Breeders' Cup-->. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!

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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.

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