Orange juice higher on speculation USDA will show smaller crops

General Comments: Futures were lower on speculative and origin selling. London was higher as trends turned up on Friday and as Vietnam producers are not selling due to the Tet holiday. Prices for Arabica remain in the recent trading range, but price action is weak. Bulls keep talking about the losses from rust in Central America and the bears keep noting that there is more than enough coffee being produced in other countries to cover the losses seen in Central America. For now, it looks like Central America could lose at least 5% of the total crop this year and more next year. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial showers for the developing crop. Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam even though producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.637 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 133.42 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The ICO estimated world 2012-13 Coffee production at 144.5 million bags, up 0.3% from its previous guess.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 140.00 March. Support is at 142.50, 141.00, and 138.00 March, and resistance is at 147.00, 150.00, and 151.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2100 and 2290 March. Support is at 2040, 2020, and 2000 March, and resistance is at 2085, 2110, and 2130 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 176.00 March. Support is at 176.00, 173.00, and 170.00 March, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00, and 184.00 March.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower after trading higher early in the session. It was a disappointing session for the bulls as they were unable to keep the recent strength in the market intact. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market, but Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May. There are ideas that this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing and export pace remain slow. It is possible that the crop size there has been overestimated. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.

Overnight News: Scattered are expected in Brazil through this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1835, and 1830 May, and resistance is at 1875, 1900, and 1920 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 503.00, 500.00, and 498.00 May, and resistance is at 512.00, 517.00, and 521.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher on news that the Harmattan winds were returning to Ivory Coast. Hot and dry winds now could hurt the mid-crop production and also hurt some development of the crops for next year. Ivory Coast also reported less than expected exports. Exports of cocoa were 68,578 tons in December, from 126,098 tons last year. Cocoa products exports were 21,679 tons, from 25,057 tons last year. Speculators seemed to be the best buyers as trends started to turn up on the charts. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress and for the mid-crop and next crop, although hot weather now could increase stress to trees. Demand is still reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production deficit next year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected in coastal areas. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.794 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2270, 2330, and 2360 March. Support is at 2210, 2180, and 2155 March, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1475, 1510, and 1535 March. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1410 March, with resistance at 1465, 1480, and 1500 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.