Why the Texans won’t draft your favorite wide receiver

Angry bird! Or maybe a ninja. This is a male hooded warbler. He showed up on my patio right next to my desk and hung out with me for 20 minutes. A tiny migratory bird. He likely won't like the Texans wide receiver pick(s) either.

11 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 1 Tennessee Jr 6-2 216 1 – Gone by the time the Texans pick, they won’t trade up for him, and if he is available where the Texans pick, they will pass on him too just to make you furious.

18 Tavon Austin WR 2 West Virginia Sr 5-9 174 1 – Short. All the above comments. Way too exciting of a player. Texans are looking for workmanlike for their offense.

27 DeAndre Hopkins WR 3 Clemson Jr 6-1 214 1-2 – Productive wide receiver in college. Was not one of the top combine performers in anything. When was the last time the Texans drafted someone in the first round that didn’t excel in the combine underwear olympics?

32 Keenan Allen WR 4 California Jr 6-2 206 1-2 – College productive. You want to draft a guy high who is coming off of injury? Also, his hands are too big for the Texans to draft him as a wide receiver. /Jacoby’d!

88 Ryan Swope WR 12 Texas A&M rSr 6-0 205 3 - White, try-hard Aggie? A faster, bigger, more productive David Anderson? FIRST ROUND PICK! Actually, non-traditional wide receiver size due to how thick he is so he is OFF the board.

This is sort of an April Fools post but not. The Texans will be drafting wide receiver. It is likely going to be a choice that is unconventional and few like because the Texans often make draft choices that are different than conventional views, sometimes to their benefit. No matter who the Texans choose, there’s going to be someone complaining because that is what fans do, so the above list is a list of some pre-emptive complaints. So this is and is not a joke–this will be a reality after the draft.

Though most mock drafts have the Texans picking wide receiver in the first, I’m not sure that is where the value is going to be for wide receiver in this draft. Ideally, they might like to move down, but you have to find a trade partner for that.

In addition, I think the Texans have enough belief in their offensive system to not think they have to draft a wide receiver in the low first. That the ones available there would not be so much better than the ones available lower in the draft, such that you pass up a more premium position that has more salary value, and gets more impactful reps earlier in their career. In recent years, linemen on both the offense and defense tend to be picked early because 1. premium position that has a lot of salary value, 2. often the ones available there are so much better than the ones available lower; 3. good ones are good for a long time and don’t have a limited shelf life.

Wide receiver is a hard position for a rookie player as the learning curve is steep and the opportunities limited, so do the Texans want to spend first round pick on that if they want to win now?

On the other hand, they have to pick someone in the first. There may not be ideal value for a position of need at that spot. Why not be a position of critical need, especially if they can put an experienced, productive, non-developmental player in that spot?

And as much as people complain about the Texans continuously drafting defense early in the draft because they were bad for so many years, the Texans defense still has key needs due to exiting players, the future of the defense and injury uncertainty of returning players and depth.

McNair has said that the Texans are looking for speed across from Andre. Typically, in all of Kubiak’s coaching spots, they’ve particularly valued wide receivers with college production, who are smart, hard workers, great route runners, with great hands. The Texans use the short pass sort of like a run, so no drops are at a premium. Bigger is handy for the blocking thing which is more of an emphasis now that the Texans running game is better, and typically they’ve gone after tall wide receivers other than that Trindon Holliday special teams experiment.

What do you think of CBS’s ranking of the wide receivers? So which wide receivers do you want the Texans to draft that they won’t? Or maybe you should pretend to like certain players you don’t like, so that the Texans don’t draft them. Or are the Texans super sneaky and figure your strategy out just to annoy you personally.

89 Responses

You had me going there for a while. This started off so much like a typical Jerome Solomon article that I almost stopped reading it. Luckily, I scrolled down to find it was a quasi April fool’s joke. Good one!

IMHO, I feel the Texans NEED to draft a WR regardless of past logic. The main reason being that they really need to think about the future at the position. It’d be great to get someone who can take up snaps immediately, but even if a WR will take a few years to develop to achieve their optimal production level, that process needs to start now. AJ has maybe 2 good, possibly elite, years left.. and potentially an additional 1 or 2 serviceable years. By that time, I’m hoping the Texans have groomed his successor.

This is a fairly deep draft at WR, but I still think they need to pick up the best one available at their draft position, rather than settling for available in a later round. (Unless they trade down to the early 2nd round (still draft WR) and pick up an additional 3rd or 4th round pick). If not this year, it’ll be just that much more apparent next year. Barring any crazy meltdown, the Texans are likely to pick at around the same draft range next year as well, so we’ll be discussing this all over again 12 months from now. Even if some elite level WR was entering the draft in the next year or two, we’d have no chance to draft him, unless there’s some huge collapse (ala Colts). I don’t believe that’s happening any time soon, and even if it did, WR would be the least of our worries at that point.

Anyway, this was just a drawn out way to say that the Texans front office need to shy away from their conventional way of thinking when it comes to this first pick and go offense. None of us are pushing them to do something extremely crazy like pick up a QB. We just need a WR.

There will be no true successor to Andre Johnson. We are spoiled. He is one of a kind. I believe that there’s a number of wide receivers who could be very good in this offense to develop however.

With the draft, the Texans look to the ideal for each position, and then sort of work backward to figure out how close that player goes to the ideal. So in some ways, this article is tongue-in-cheek, in some ways not. The Texans have their list of what they want in a wide receiver, and then figuring out strengths, weaknesses of each player based on their ideals. None of these guys are Andre Johnson, none of them will likely replace Andre Johnson, but which one from both a skills and disposition standpoint can help the Texans win? That guy might be a first round guy, might not.

I was in a love affair with Cordarelle Patterson when he was mocked to be a 2nd round pick at best, bet then I guess everybody started watching the same YouTube videos I did. Dude is magical with the ball in his hands and would have been great with the Texans short game, but he will be gone.

DeAndre Hopkins is a good candidate at #27…I mean you can’t argue with 18 TDs, but his level of athleticsm (as determined by the combine and ProDay) may not be 1st round calibur. And in that case, I don’t think the Texans will even draft the WR in the 1st Round. They might go Oline as you stated if a ggod one falls and look to the 2nd or 3rd round to get a WR. I like Justin Hunter, but the Texans may need to trade up in the 2nd to get him(ala Brandon Harris)

If the Texans are in “Win Now” mode as they should be, then the first pick (at 27 or later if the trade down) should be a day 1 starter. There are enough holes (ILB, NT, RT, SS, Rush OLB, WR) that they should be able to find a player to plug one of those holes. I’m not convinced that a rookie WR from this draft class will have a better season that Posey or Martin did last year. At WR, I prefer they sign a veteran who can come in and be productive immediately (like a D. Heyward-Bey).

Stephanie: Thanks for your tongue-in-cheek April Fool’s Day column. Some comments from me: Terrence Williams – how can a receiver this tall have such small hands – sounds like an e e cummings poem. I like Ryan Swope and hope we draft him – didn’t he have the second fastest 40 time at the Combine? Conner Vernon – his name, he sounds either like a Texan or a weatherman on TV.
I hope we get a productive wide-reciever. I remember when we needed a running back and drafted Ben Tate – who we assumed was our savior at RB, but then also signed two undrafted RBs – Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson. I pulled for Johnson because I liked his name, but was happy to be surprised by Foster. Maybe we can get lucky again. Hook Em’ Horn, BTW. Dan (Finley) in Panama City, Florida

I think for a while, the Texans have been chasing the next Arian Foster or Rod Smith at the wide receiver position. They’ve tried to get someone from that spot to step up, and maybe if Lestar Jean can stay healthy, he could help. Hard for inexperienced wide receivers to be consistent.

Well after watching this braintrust destroy a cohesive veteran rarely injured Oline and trading for Tyler Cutts in response to losing BOTH ILBs i fully expect the Texans to finally give the mob exactly what they clamour for this year – that First round WO – who will promply get lost in what the rest of the 21st century livivng world refers to as ‘Boola Boola Ball”.
After all, i believe this years PR programme is called “One Playmaker Away”

Hardly. Give me that 2011 edition anyday-shoot they were so good- at least at something called ‘effort”- i even thought we were going places last year-NOT.
The answer is as easy as what everyone but the oblivious saw last year – ILB. BOTH ours are coming off of Major Injuries and anyone giving me that lame ‘they only play 30% tripe obviously did not see what a real coach (see Belechick) will do with that stat. Besides we traded our defoacto ILB Quinn away for an aging HOFer. Great Jersey move granted. Never mind that guy QUin was second in run stuffs behind JJ and actually LEAD the entire NFL in tackles for a safety inside the LB zone.
Still bitter after that six game end of season JV performance am I? – Yep.
And back to reality after giving fair due TO A GREAT GREAT 2011 season.
Defense got this outdated offensive system in in 2011 and actually got them the redo/NE- with ALL the Big Three playing i might add.
Only this time we had a coach who saw we had NO Middle.
This offense needs a great defense. But Odds are pretty good the happy billionaire senses it is time- for reasons well beyond good football decision making – to feed the mob.
I smell that WO coming.

Hoping to get Keenan Allen. If he’s not there and Tyler Eifert falls, I’d take him instead. We need more receiving weapons. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a WR. In fact a two TE set would help disguise the offense better.

It really depends on what you want from a receiver, or rather what the Texans want. They don’t really consider what the average fan wants (this is a good thing. The average fan isn’t an NFL personnel professional who consults with the coaches on the right fit for the system). So what do the Texans want? Do they want a guy to step into Andre Johnson’s shoes as he gets older? Do they want a guy to fill Walter’s position as #2? Do they want a slot receiver? And regardless of what they really want, what is actually available?

The next Andre Johnson is going to be difficult, if not impossible, to find. If an Andre Johnson type is available, he’s probably gone way before Houston picks. They would have to get a steal to find that. A slot receiver is a part time player in the Houston offense, and probably not worth the first round pick, or even the second. Plus the Texans have a void at the #2 WR spot, so that is where they should look first. What kind of player they want there is up for debate. Well, they want someone big, tall, and fast, with great hands, good leadership, and the ability to get yards after the catch. If that guy exists, he’s long gone by the time Houston picks. So what are they willing to give up in order to get a solid guy that fits their system?

For the last few seasons, they have had Kevin Walter starting, so they must like a Walter type. Tall, good blocker, good hands & route running, not a burner. However, they let him go, and the last couple guys they drafted were shorter and faster, so maybe they want something different. I think the Texans still favor size over speed in a #2 wideout, and want a guy who can block and minimize drops. The guys I would expect them to look at early are Allen, Hopkins, Hunter, and maybe Williams, but it wouldn’t shock me if they went in another direction in the first round. When was the last time they picked the guy we expected?

TS, as much as I like what Cushing brings to the Texans, I think Matthews would have been better – if the Texans had known then that they would go to a 3-4 defense. The Packers use Matthews more as a pass rusher than a true linebacker, so I don’t know if his skills would have worked as well in the Houston 4-3 defense year one. If Houston had used him like they use Cushing, they would have missed out on Matthews greatest strength – his ability as an edge rusher. Still, it’s scary to think how good the Texans pass rush could be if they had Matthews and Watt.

I think you missed the boat on this blog entry. By process of elimination I figure there are only two or three positions the Texans take wr, cb, or a rt. I have real doubts they would draft a rt in the first round so that leaves corner or wr.

So you thought the Texans would take DE JJ Watt’s drafted year with Mario Williams already on the roster? The Texans say they don’t draft for need. OTOH, they often shop the draft like a grocery list. Even so, they often don’t pick in the order that fans think they should pick, particularly if there isn’t a no-brainer guy at that spot. And they often don’t just have a current view year in mind. Last year’s 1st round pick a good example of that. It’s a wide open draft with no consensus as to draft order at all. Without us seeing medicals and a lot of interpersonal stuff, very hard for fans to identify which guys that they will be particularly in love with in the first round. A lot of fans didn’t care for the Duane Brown pick but he was the guy they wanted out of a strong LT class.

Steph, I think you confused my post as a response to the deadcoach. It was not. However I did think they might take JJ. I thought for sure Aldon Smith if he was available but he wasn’t. The Texans were switching to a 3-4 and Mario really didn’t have a position. And according to Mayock JJ was the very best 5 tech. he had ever scouted. There were also a few mock drafts that had The Texans taking Watt. The problem is most fans get there information from talk radio. Which for the most part talk radio host are nothing more than fans with a mike. Sure there are a few inform and dialed into what is really going on but most couldn’t tell you the what makes the difference in skill set and body type between a 3 tech. and a 5 tech. or simply put why those players need different set of skills.
Back to JJ he was expected to go early in the first round. The problem for fans is that a 5 tech. from Wisconsin is not a sexy pick. If anything the Texsns value substance over 40 times. That’s why I think they will take the best available wr on their board. Which will make the pick seem ho hum or boring or over reaching. But in the end more than likely prove to be a solid pick.

Forgot it was April Fools day. You had me thinking you had soured on Texans management with the sarcastic comments. Good job. I hope the Texans don’t draft a wide receiver that they need to “develop”. They haven’t had any success with that philosophy yet. Andre came ready to play…..I cannot think of another receiver that they have successfully developed.

Small sample size as far as wide receiver development. You have Jacoby Jones. Drafted in the 3rd round. And then last year’s guys who had limited targets. WR, even with a top quality pick, rarely is an instant impact guy because of opportunity, learning curve, particularly on successful teams who have a great deal of interest in winning now. Little patience with mistakes, compared to a team that has few expectations.

With all the emphasis on new talent, have the Texans decided that the Lestar project has failed or they have no one on the roster to fill Walter’s role? If Kubiak is not going to throw more than 40 or 50 passes a season to the position why bother with all the analysis? He might as well line up a speedy tight end at 2nd WR as a perpetual blocker and be done with it.

Numbers-wise, you just need more guys. Maybe one of the current players has a spectacular camp. But you can’t count on that. For all positions of weakness, you keep throwing bodies at it until you have success.

First of all, the Texans try to get cute in every draft and usually end up looking like boobs for it. They’re the McGuire of drafters- they strike out way too much but they hit some homeruns that make people forget about all their misses.

Secondly, the Texans have a bunch of wide receivers, but also a quarterback who can’t throw it to them when he’s under pressure. Schaub can make plays if he’s not hassled, but he’s become too gun-shy to be effective without an excessively solid offensive line. They weren’t terrible last year and Schaub was chucking-and-ducking by the end of the season. What the Texans need to get in the first round is a stud right tackle, which means trading up, not down. Of course they won’t do it because they’re convinced their previous selections are up to the task, so it doesn’t matter what they need. They’ll intentionally draft the last person anyone expects so we’ll all just have to cross our fingers.

Several comments – You must be talking about some other team, as the Texans have drafted overall very well compared to most teams. You can look at any teams historical draft and there are more misses than hits. I would say getting the best defensive player in the whole league at #11 and the best LT in the league at #26 are not exactly “looking like boobs”. You don’t win 12 games by drafting poorly. If you want poor drafts, go see the Jags, Chiefs, Raiders, etc.

The Texans have conditioned me to be less than fired up around draft time.

It’s not like I don’t like the draft talk, it’s more like the feeling you get when opening your spouses’ Christmas present. It could be awesome, but it could be something that you have to grin and fain a positive reaction to.

I grew up like most. The draft went from reading about it in the newspaper the next day, to today’s,

“He ate a snickers before he came into studio.”, status updates.

But for the Texans those reports don’t matter. They pick according to their own devices. As long as Smithiak holds the controls they will continue to do so.

And even after 2 division titles, they still get no air time on the 4 letter network or any other national media anyway.

(I actually got excited because the NFL network did a really long segment on Greg Jones)

I put odds at better than 50/50 that the Texans make a pick and we all say,

“Who?”

I think history has shown us this is going to happen and to be fair, the ones they have surprised us with in the past, like Dwayne Brown, have proved good picks.

So instead of vesting too much into the hype, I just sit back relax, and enjoy the over analysis.

That is a perfectly sensible position to take. Given that all of us, even the best drafting has less information than the teams do, and the teams still get it wrong, why should we get anxious about a pick before they even step out on the field?

For me, I spend more time after the draft figure out the picks they got and seeing if there are logical reasons for them, then coveting particularly players that the Texans likely can’t get.

Our greatest need is still at WR. Why? Because we have but one & he commands all the attention. We have other receivers, but with no time to make reads or throws, it always comes down to AJ on 3rd & 10. I’m sick of this scenario. 3rd & long because zilch takes place on 1st & 2nd. Whomever Smith & Kubiak pick, I hope he is 6′+ & has hands the size of Andre the Giant. The wrestler, not #80, although his are quite large. 2 threats in our passing game will be better than just the one & only, Johnson. I love the guy, but he needs help. AJ had so few TD’s in 2012 eventhough he was targeted, made receptions & gained yardage. It just did not equate to points other than FG’s. When a returner puts your ‘O’ on the 9 yard line & your ‘high powered’ offense has 4 shots at the end zone & your QB winds up on his back on 3rd down after going backwards, then you have no business mentioning a Superbowl in this team’s future. Even Rob Baronas can’t get a team to a SB on his foot alone.

We are allowed to have our own opinions. My opinion is that is rare that the Texans do the conventional thing. And even when they do the conventional thing, it is often done unconventionally. See e.g. Duane Brown pick the LT year. Kareem Jackson the CB year. I am not convinced that this is The Wide Receiver Year. Yes, the Texans need WR. Are they so hearts and roses over the wide receiver available at 27 that they don’t go after other positions of need? OTOH, are they hearts and roses over anybody available at 27? If you have no trade partner to trade down, you have to pick somebody and you could do worse than a productive college wide receiver. And who knows, maybe this is the year they trade up in the 1st? They haven’t done it under Kubiak, so maybe that’s the thing that will cause folks to fall out of their chairs.

Ryan Swope should be the first WR drafted by the Texans. He is a bigger stronger version of Wes Welker. He catches everything and makes big plays after catch. Just look at the Alabama game and what he caught against Dee Milliner.

i’m afraid the Texans are pre-destined to draft a train wreck. Instead of stepping into dog poo as usual a couple of years ago, we stumbled into dumb luck by getting JJ, so the law of averages for incompetence like Kubaik’s and Smith’s (Stumblin’ and Bumblin’) would dictate another epic fail like Mario. (And before the minions start telling me how great Mario was, just remember that the first time he suffered an actual injury and was actually off the field, the defense practically shot from worst to first.)

“Like i’ve said before, JJ is to truffles what Kubiak and Smith (Stumblin’ and Bumblin’) are to blind pigs.”

Like I’ve said before, pigs find truffles by scent, not sight. If you believe that animals compensate for losing one sense by further developing the others, a blind pig would be better at finding truffles. I realize you aren’t the first to use this analogy incorrectly, but that doesn’t make it any better. It just detracts from your larger point, especially if you claim to be right more often than not.

I am not sure how you can say “i’ve been right more often than the koolaid drinkers” since the team did win 75% of its regular season games last year with the players picked by Smith and Kubiak…..and by the way NOBODY won 100% of their games. It might be time to for you enter the REAL WORLD.

@Dead Coach, i’ll help you out with the concept of “old sayings”. Historically, about this adage, “It means that anyone can accedently (sic) stumble onto something”. This is copied and pasted from Yahoo Answers posted seven years ago and is universally understood by everybody in the world except you. So i pretty much used the analogy correctly, i guess your loss of sense hasn’t compensated yet.

Yes, blind pigs can find truffles by smell, but they must be led to the field before they can hunt. Their survival rate in the wild is not too promising, but if they’re protected, coddled, spoiled, and not too much is expected of them like Kubiak and Smith (Stumblin’ and Bumblin’), once in a while, BOOM! A truffle.

I understand what you are trying to say, I’m just saying the analogy is stupid. Even seems more stupid when you copy the definition from someone who can’t spell. Blind squirrels finding acorns or broken watches being right twice a day make more sense. Maybe I’m being too literal, but the truffle analogy has always bothered me.

Anyway, truffle pigs aren’t really the topic of discussion here. We’re talking draft picks. You are entitled to your opinion on each pick, just like everybody else, but if you just look at facts:

Williams: Has started every year, twice been named All-Pro, and was made the highest paid defensive player in NFL history by the Bills. Seems like a few people besisdes me disagree with you there.
Okoye: First name is actually Amobi. Four year starter on an admittedly bad defense. Picked up by Chicago after leaving Houston, a traditionally solid defensive team.
Brown: Starter from day 1, 2 time All-Pro.
Cushing: Starter from day 1, defensive rookie of the year, All-Pro, pregnancy or steriod use never proven.
Jackson: Started all but 3 games in 3 years, has been a part of much improved Houston defense.
Watt: Even you can’t find anything bad to say about him.
Mercilus: Four starts in his rookie season, appears to be ready to start in year 2.

In summary, four All-Pro performers, a defensive player of the year, a defensive rookie of the year, the highest paid defensive player ever, and every one a starter. Show me another team that can match that kind of production from their first round picks from the last 7 years. One last thing: If all of these draft picks are so bad, how did the Texans manage to go from the worst in the league to a top contender? They must have a hell of a coach.

Truffles are under ground and to harvest them they use animals who can smell. Mostly dogs because they are easy to care for and train. But any animal that can be trained with a good sense of smell would work. The Texans draft record has been outstanding. They have had two drafts where almost every player picked made contribution to the team by either starting or getting a good amount of playing time. There sure seems like a whole lot of players getting picked off the Texans.

You lost any credibility you may have had when you went all Aggie draft.

Hey TS: still not over the snub the Texans gave to your guy VY in ’06? How’s that working out for everyone? Texans are winning and VY? well what else can be said. You are a bitter bitter man. You need to find another team to root for but you can’t because VY HAS NO TEAM? lol
Mario – Epic fail, reasons listed above. What does that amke VY? lol
Amobe – Another epic fail, no arguments accepted.
Duane – Finally starting to pay dividends after four years. Has beed SOLID for 4years and now a perennial pro bowler
Cushing – Pregnant and ‘rhoided, but shows up on game day. The comments are a stretch on your part. Cushing has nver been “‘roided”. one questionable failed drug test prover nothing, moron.
Kareem – One of the most epickest fails of all. How so? He is one of the better CB’s in the league right now. Case of too much expectations too soon.
JJ – Powerball jackpot chosen by QuickPick. GREAT draft choice. You build champions with these kind of draft picks.
Mercilus – Nothing yet. How so? 6 sacks in limited playing time? I believe this one warrants a retraction until AFTER he has played a full season as the STARTER.
You “sound” a lot like joasis. wouldn’t be surprised if you are one in the same. must be difficult to be proven wrong as far as the Texans are concerned but really – you need to get a life.

Good call Randy, i am joasis. i’ve never denied it, it’s just that the Texan Supporter avatar is genius. And if you’ll notice, the AFC South’s drop from one of the strongest divisions to the weakest coincided with VY’s departure (and Peyton). The Texans stumbled into the division title by keeping the same mediocre progression we’ve always been on while the three other teams’ natural cycle dipped at the same time. The Texans have never beaten VY, and lucky for Kubiak, it looks like we won’t ever have to face him again since Fisher’s revenge for USC’s defeat seems to be complete.

And just because ol’ Stumblin’ Kubiak often makes his first rounders start doesn’t mean they’re good. i re-iterate the point about the defensive improvement caused by Mario’s absence and the total embarassment named Kreemed Jackson.

I know that you have explained to me before that they wont draft a Q/B,..but if any one of the top three Q/Bs are available we need to get one. I like Matt and he is ok ,..what with his numbers as far as production and that , but he is not the guy that is the LONG term answer. The game has really changed as far as how offenses use the skills of Q/Bs now. Q/Bs NOW have to be more mobile and Shaub just cant move his feet at all. If Barkley is there when we pick i would take him,..if not id pick defense again because taking a top receiver is not going to make the team or Matt any better of a Q/B than he already is. Im thinking linebacker whether inside or outside or a safety or a corner. What do you think Steph?

If you want to know what I REALLY think, here goes 1. If you are going to criticize him, spell his name correctly: “Schaub.” 2. Not impressed with QBs in this draft. Even if I were, they wouldn’t be a short term answer; 3. Whoever your quarterback is, you need a wide receiver just from a numbers perspective + Andre Johnson is not getting younger. The Next Andre is not in this draft, but there are a number of WRs who could contribute to winning. Those guys don’t necessarily have to be chosen in the 1st round, but neither do the rest of the positions.

In sum, I want the best guy they can draft for this team now and in the future with some sense of need but not that dictating everything. Or in other words, what Jaguars fans say all the time: “We picked Blaine Gabbert one pick before JJ Watt???!!!!” You don’t want to be that team.

Well..anyway,..thanks for answering me. I didnt really criticize him that bad ,..not as bad as i could have. We do need a receiver so it would be a good choice, but Matt(since i cant spell his name correctly) wont throw to the guy,..we already had Jacoby and Matt just cant throw the ball deep enough to get it to him. Matt is serviceable but he will not get us to the big dance.It would be nice if i believed other wise but what ive seen out him doesnt inspire any realistic chance of him taking the team all the way. Thanx for your thoughts.

I don’t want the Texans thinking “long term” right now. There is no QB available better than Schaub and the window for the team winning the Superbowl NOW is closing. They need to fill some major holes at other positions (middle linebacker and wide receiver to name two) to have a chance to win it all NOW.

My upcoming mock for Bleacher Report will not have the Texans drafting a WR, LB, CB, S, DL, OL, or QB in the first round. This is my counterpart to your mock April Fools prank. Would you like to hazard a guess at my prediction?

I stopped reading the bleacher report when they asked me to write an article for them. Every swinging richard with a computer can write for them. Which leads me to think less of the bleacher report. That and most of the articles are just plan bad.

The rest will be busts? Nah. You know what makes a good to great receiver? A good match between fit, coaching, team. Some teams will have an easier time incorporating wide receiver because they have a better scheme.

Only three wr in the whole draft will be good? There will be one or two that become good receivers that weren’t on the top 5 list. And T. Williams has average to ok written all over him. To me he is just another Jacoby Jones. Who wants that?

Exactly Scott! Now the only difference between Jones and the top Wrs in this league I believe is in between his ears. I think Terrence Williams is a clone physically but mentally he appears to have more fundamentals in place. A fundamentally sound Jacobe Jones would be dangerous with Matt Shaub. Exactly what I want. Jones but superior mentally. Jerry Rice had that superior skill too. Terrence Williams fits that bill to me.

Lestar Jean is our most experience WR behind Andre. LESTAR JEAN we can’t go into training camp with Jean as our #2 receiver without some competition. according to Smith 1st rounder contribute so we are drafting a WR or ILB depending on the value. The only ILB that could drop far enough to us is Arthur Brown, Patterson might and Allen might fall to us.

Why could there not be competition for Lestar Jean from a WR drafted in the 2nd round, or 3rd round? In particular, this draft is considered deep at WR. Maybe no Andre Johnson but many WRs who could contribute in right circumstance. Or what if there is a DT who is a unique talent? Or a CB? Do you reach for need so much that you miss out on a guy that you evaluate as a special talent? There’s plenty of people who think that after the top players in the draft, it is pretty wide open who will go where, and you see evaluations all over the place for a number of the first round guys. Maybe the only surprising Texans draft would be the predictable names.

I think the question should be what receiver should The Texans draft based on Schaubs strength and weaknesses. Regardless of us predicting the Texans won’t draft who we want what ever receiver they draft should fit in with they way they are trying to use Schaub so a receiver that gets deep wouldn’t be ideal for this team to due Schaubs lack of arm strengh but at the same rate the Texans using the short pass as an extension of the run game is just utterly conservative and shows they don’t trust Schaub. Every team has strong beliefs in their offensive system thats why they run that scheme so to say they trust there scheme as a reason not to draft a receiver after we seen what defensive done to stop them is just crazy. Cornerback is a hard position to learn out of college as from the evidence of Kareem Jackson but they still drafted him so that doesn’t matter if you do your homework you will get a receiver that can produce but if your quarterback is not good its going to look as if he is not its no other way to put it so lets stop the coach speak and excuses for the Texans failures at drafting and developing the position. True there may or may not be someone that is the second coming of Andre put how can we accurately gauge that with the performance of Schaub of late but at the same rate you don’t let Andre retire to try to find his replacement. I thought the team should have traded for Colt Mccoy or Kevin Kolb to create some competion so on that note adding Ed Reed won’t necessarily put this team over the top coaching and quarterback play so it doesn’t matter who we draft although we have to many spots that rookies are going to have to fill in a must win now for the organization. I still believe the Texans should draft Mathieu but I don’t think it will happen so alot of times I believe the Texans want to draft average guys to keep them from having to pay them in three years hence the revolving door we have been seeing lately but the proofs in the pudding but at best we will be a wildcard team.

I enjoy your work so much you deserve a preview of my Wednesday publication. Because this is my third mock the latest edition will be different by design.

The Texans will trade out of the first with the Dolphins, whose has two second-round picks. Houston will package their first and fourth picks (27 and 124) for Miami’s extra second (54 from Indy) and third (82 from Chicago).

Rick Smith loves to trade down and he’ll have two seconds and three thirds, where there will still be lots of value. This draft is like the D-line of the 2000 Ravens with Sam Adams and Tony Siragusa: heavy in the middle. I’ll tweet the link after it’s up.

Thanks Jeff. Trade down would make sense for Texans, but makes sense for a number of teams. Hard to predict much of that because you have to find a trade partner. Actually, now with the new CBA, less risk at the top of the 1st with bad expensive contracts with unproven guys if you really like a player. Not sure this is the ideal draft for that given the value in the 2nd round of players that aren’t much of a drop off from the first. Maybe positions that don’t make sense in the first or aren’t usually drafted there. Feel free to send link.

Da’Rick Rogers may be the best WR talent in this draft. I know he’s had “character issues,” but he’s big, fast, tough, he’s willing to take big hits, he’s very explosive and he plays with passion. As long as he’s not another Terrell Owens (or even close), I’d take him in a heartbeat with our first pick. He’s be one of my first choices. He may be available by our 2nd pick, but I don’t want us to take that chance. An ideal situation would be to trade out of the 1st round about 12 or 15 spots and pick up an early or mid 3rd rounder in the process. That would give us two 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders (with the compensatory pick). Our draft COULD look something like this:

Every one of those first 4 picks has elite potential IMO…and I wouldn’t expect Lattimore to play this year (of course), but from 2014 on, we could have ourselves another franchise back.

I would love to get Tyrann Mathieu, too…I’d even use our 1st pick to get him. Getting him and DJ Hayden in the same draft would make our secondary a likely force to be reckoned with for years to come. You shouldn’t pass up on elite talent…even if it’s *a little* riskier of a pick…to settle and perhaps reach for a lesser talent at a position of “need” IMO. I would say that our biggest “needs” are RT, OLB (I’m not sold on Mercilus and Reed at this point) and WR, but you take elite talent when it’s available. Here is another “dream scenario” IMO:

If either of those draft scenarios I just laid out actually happened, I’d be estatic! The Texans would still likely need a WR and a pass rusher next year…and possibly a QB (Tajh Boyd???), but 1) you can’t fill every need with a premium pick this offseason, 2) we may be more flexible next year to make a good move in free agency or the draft and 3) we most likely would’t need a free safety/punt returner for a long time in the event that we get Mathieu.

You got a lot of stuff going on in your comment, but the one I want to mention is Mathieu. I don’t think he goes in the 1st round. Maybe not the 2nd either. Size/speed + character + time off + questions about his game I’m not sure equals first round.

I hope you’re right, Stephanie. The lower he falls, the better the value for whoever gets Mathieu. I could see one of the “smart” teams like NE, Baltimore or SF pick him up with their first pick (SF also has the 2nd pick of the 2nd round, and they need a safety)…and just about anyone who needs a DB after the first round. Those are just two possible scenarios…there are several other players I would love for us to get also at different positions. I really hope we trade back out of the first round and pick up another 3rd rounder.

I just see Mathieu and Da’Rick Rogers as being the best available players at their positions by the time we come up at 27…and either one of them could be the best player in this draft IMO. A lot of guys have “character” issues in college (especially with marijuana)…but I don’t like the idea of letting the ones who have ELITE talent slip away unless their issues are Terrell Owens-esque or worse…and even so, a lot of teams would still have loved to have had TO during most of career.

EVERYONE has “questions” going into the league…even Andrew Luck. Mathieu’s talent shouldn’t, and may not be ignored by the time our 2nd pick comes up at 57 IMO.

I could see the off the radar pick of Justin Hunter. Fits measurables they like (see Devier Poey plus 2 inches). I could see them taking him in the 2nd or even the 1st and fan apoplexy ensuing. Not endorsing it, not rejecting it, just seems like the kind of Kareem pick they might make. If DeAndre Hopkins was on the board and they passed on him for Hunter, it would be Deja Vu all over again.

I’d rather have Da’Rick Rogers than Hopkins or Hunter…he may not be quite as polished as them, but he has excellent size, speed, toughness and rare body positioning ability to shield off defenders (some of the best I’ve ever seen). He also runs good routes, he’s a good blocker, and he plays with passion and fire. He’s the best *pure* WR prospect in this draft IMO, and that’s saying a lot. If it wasn’t for his character issues (mostly the 3 failed drug tests with marijuana, although he has supposedly passed 10 drug tests since then…he also supposedly had a few “clashes” with his coaches when he was at Tennessee, but nothing major), he’s be a top-15 or 20 pick IMO. The reward would likely be WELL worth the risk…especially if we can trade back and pick up an extra 3rd rounder and still get him early in the 2nd round.

I would love for us to get Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) in the 2nd round and Barrett Jones (OL, Alabama) in the 3rd, too…but I don’t see them being available by then (especially Jones in the 3rd). I think they are both worthy of being 1st or 2nd round picks.

Also, Justice Cunningham, (TE, South Carolina) could be an excellent sleeper pick in the later rounds.

Enjoyed your comments on each of the receivers, and there’s sad truth among the humor. If we don’t trade back, I see the value/need being NT – with Hankins, Williams, or Short. I like the idea of trading back with SF (27 for 61, 74, and 93). We’d have 57, 61, 74, 89, 93, and 95 to address NT, ILB, WR, RT, TE, and S. I think we could get solid players at each of those positions with those picks, and 4th through 7th would just be more depth and BPA. I honestly think our biggest need is NT. My fear is that teams will just gut us up the middle. With Quin and Cody gone, and Cushing recovering, teams could really kill us up the gut. I’m looking forward to seeing Reed cover and maybe help us against NE, but I do not want him stuffing the run like Quin and ending up hurt by the time we play NE. Loved the Jones pick up. Maybe we go back to more smash mouth lead blocking, and let Arian do his thing. Keep the articles coming. Only 3 more weeks!

This is a decent article. I expect more from you though Steph. You have to give a better reason to knock a guy other than he is from a small school. I would prefer you to say his route running needs work or his route running is limited. Being from a small school only means he needs to be coached up and developed more, he might be a year or two away. IF Larry Kirksey is the WR coach then he might never get developed.
I would like to see you research the last decade of rookie WRs per round, post their rookie season production and compare it to the standard NFL #2 WR numbers of 60 receptions, 800 or more yards with 6 or more TDS. This will give fans a more realistic perspective on why the Texans should NOT draft a WR at 27. You cannot add a rookie WR with Gary Kubiak and Larry Kirksey then stir to be successfull. I learned that from the mishandling of Keyshawn Martin and Lestar Jean in 2012. Kubiak and Kirksey have not developed a WR in 7 seasons so why expect it to change now.
The Texans would be better served by taking TCU WR Josh Boyce in the 4th round since Posey is out for all of 2013, sign a veteran WR to be the #2 and draft Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews in the 2014 NFL draft.
Again, nice article but I expected you to go a alot deeper. Kinda like that Matt Schaub propaganda I mean sales pitch you tried a few weeks ago.
Remember, Luv ya blue steel but I have to keep it real.

I am not knocking any of these guys. I’ve only watched a few. This is a rhetorical device to suggest that no matter who the Texans pick, somebody will complain because they always do. Can always find stuff to nitpick. None of these guys are Andre Johnson. Have get beyond that, also recognize learning curve of position. Kubiak/Kirksey have limited number of rookies they’ve picked, none above 3rd rd. Small sample size. How were Martin/ Jean mishandled. Limited catches because weren’t making best of them…low catch rates.

If you want to do rook research, go for it. I’m busy. So many factors involved with rookie production…QB, scheme, opportunity, team expectations, complexity….so no point in it really.

@Steph…Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. Rookie WR drafted outside the top 15 until the 3rd round take 1 to 2 years to develop. Regardless of the round, Kubiak and Kirksey should have been able to develop atleast 1 WR by now but they have not so our system for player development on the offensive side of the football is broken.
I did the research on rookie wrs drafted in the last decade and no one picked at or below 27 had more than 60 receptions as a rookie except Anquan Boldin in 2003 for the Cardinals.
Signing a veteran will give the Texans a productive #2 this season as Martin and Jean continue to develop. Drafting TCU WR Josh Boyce in the 4th round would give the offense a solid replacement for Devier Posey. In the 2014 NFL draft, the Texans should go all in on Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews as he is a capable replacement to Andre Johnson as the #1 WR in Houston plus he will be a great #2 WR.

WR is a lot about opportunity. Lower round WR often don’t get many targets, and Texans haven’t put big priority in developing WR before lat year because thy spent high draft picks trying to fix defense and they had vets getting targets. May not have a choice this year then to give inexperienced guys a lot of reps.

There are a ton of WR in this draft that I really like, and I think we can get one in the 2nd-4th rounds that will be servicable this year with the potential of developing. The number one quality anyone we draft to play WR needs is the ability to catch in traffic. I also wouldn’t mind copying NE and just using the slot and the TE more. Improve the RT spot and maybe Arian gets more involved in the screens again. Of all the positions we need to fill in this draft, NT and ILB just don’t seem to have that many players that I like or would fit.

I think you might enjoy this highlight reel of Da’Rick Rogers. I would LOVE to get him in the 2nd round, but I don’t think he’ll be there by the 57th pick…and he may not make it to the 2nd round. His ability to catch in traffic is what separates him from the others in this draft IMO. That and his combination of size, speed, toughness, etc….

Of course there are other receivers in this draft that can help the Texans immediately, but I really like Rogers and think that he can not only be our “#2 WR,” he could very well be our #1 WR in the near future IMO.

I agree with you on the RT spot, too. Our offense was VERY good in 2011 w/ Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones as our #2 and #3 wide receivers because we had a great, cohesive OL…and we SERIOUSLY need to address that RT position BY the end of the 3rd round this year.

I’m also with you on ILB for the most part, although if Teo can get his act together mentally, I think he can be a VERY good player in the league. That said, I would address other positions of need before ILB, and try to find a diamond in the rough in the later rounds there. Cushing’s return and a good DT can really mask that deficiency better than some of our other needs IMO. We can’t address every need we have with a premium draft pick this year.

As far as DT’s are concerned, I really want us to get Jesse Williams. I think he would be a PERFECT fit for the Texans at NT…and although I wouldn’t mind if we used our 1st round pick to get him, I’d prefer we trade back out of the first round and pick up at least another 3rd rounder.

IMHO, the reason some teams take the best player available in the top 32 that the fans are looking to get drafted is it appeases the fans and that’s essentially the easy way out.

The Texans always seem to draft the unexpected player in the early rounds and do more movement and trades than some other teams. That’s probably because they prepare more towards maximizing their return on player value than some other teams. That’s been the case on a lot of players with of course the occasional complete air ball on some guys like Amobe Okoye, and some others I’m forgetting.

Since fans don’t and cannot prepare for the draft the way the Texans scouting department does, and already have a hoped for best wish player on their list, naturally the result is the unexpected Joseph Studly from Ballyhooed University on the Texans rookie roster.

It strikes me that the NFL draft is a truly unpredictable human creation; therefore I ignore mock drafts and, as I’ve claimed before, the gaming mathematics of modeling such an activity might be interesting, or completely intractable.

I think people liked the Amobe Okoye pick because he was young. I did not like it. Dont like the DT position to be picked in the first round. They rarely have that sort of impact unless teams draft the next Suh which is rare. TE and WR has become the league trend because of the way the rules are set up to help them. I think the Texans should follow that trend by getting multiple Wr at all three positions strong and at TE like New England, New York, SF, Ravens. Then position the defense to be strong against the pass. Preferably a ILB or OLB that can also cover a little or rush the QB. Its the NFL of today they should keep in mind.

Nah, Okoye was projected higher than when the Texans picked by pretty much the consensus and not because he was young. The youth actually was a knock on him.

Check out what one service said about him at the time as the internet doesn’t always tell the truth but boy howdy it can be a brutal time machine: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/436548 “Compares To: REGGIE WHITE-ex-Philadelphia/Green Bay … To compare a player to White is something that can not be done without much consideration. But the more you see Okoye on game films, the more convinced you become that he will not only have a long, fruitful career, but will continue to grow both physically and mentally. He has such great fire and plays with the relentless pace that made White the measuring stick for all other defensive linemen. He has the low center of gravity to play over the head of the center, the speed and explosion to shoot the gaps and the quickness to even move out and attack on the edge. Okoye is The NFL Draft Report’s top-rated player for the 2007 draft.”

My first opinion of drafting Amobi Okoye was that Mario Williams desired and approved of the choice.

He was drafted in the basement of GM Rick’s learning curve. So basically, Amobi Okoye was a product of the group think drafting Rick Smith and the Texans have grown out of, before the current personnel collection organization boiled to full steam.

You are correct, sir. The immediate review of the pick was that Mario was very excited to get more line help.

That being said, that was a lot of youngness on a line–defensive line is usually a grownass man position. Normally, it is a position that players don’t have an immediate impact. Players like Andre Johnson and JJ Watt are unique talents at their positions.

I wasn’t trying to be correct, I was simply offering one possible reason why the Texans now draft the unexpected. They may not even draft a wide receiver until round 4.

Sometimes on draft day I round up links to a lot of mock drafts just to see how deep those are but after 2 years of most of those being wrong by pick 5 I’m going to pursue a better waste of time, well at least one I think is better. As a matter of fact, I don’t know when the draft is and it might sneak right past me unobserved. I don’t feel compelled to have the last word, it just looks that way.

I keep reading about ‘development’ or the ‘learning curve’ for a wide receiver. The one thing that distinguishes an elite receiver is the ability to come into the league and catch a pass while being hit by someone running full speed. NFL defenses will take one or two ‘defenseless receiver’ or ‘illegal blow to the head’ calls every game. Look at the pass Welker dropped in the AFC championship game after getting the roughing call against the Ravens…I don’t believe years of development can make a receiver crazy tough. Crazy tough AND talent is hard to find.