Last Saturday’s launch of the X Factor had the lowest ratings in its 14-year history.
Photograph: Nicky Johnston/Syco/Thames/ITV

Saturday night viewing has long been dominated by the battle between X Factor and Strictly Come Dancing, but with ratings for Simon Cowell’s music show at a record low, and an underwhelming line-up for the latest Strictly, the fight may be turning into one simply for survival.

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Last Saturday’s launch of the X Factor had the lowest ratings for a debut episode since it first aired in 2004, with an average of 6 million viewers and a peak of 6.9 million for the ITV talent contest judged by Cowell, Nicole Scherzinger, Sharon Osbourne and Louis Walsh.

The numbers were slightly better on Sunday with 6.5 million tuning in. But while both episodes made the X Factor the most-watched programme of the night, it continued the downward trend given the 2011 launch show pulled in 10.8 million viewers. Last year’s final was also the least-watched since the one in 2004.

“Contest formats have had remarkable longevity, and it’s natural that they’re going to tail off,” said Tom Harrington, a TV research analyst at Enders. “I wouldn’t say it’s a tired format, but it is becoming less interesting. Audiences had become overexposed to such shows.

“There’s so many variations of the same theme, and there’s probably the feeling that a lot of the talent has already been mined. There’s only so many ‘we found a person who can sing who we didn’t think could sing’ stories you can have.”

Harrington said there had been some noticeable failures in the genre recently, for example, Gary Barlow’s Let it Shine, which the BBC canned after just one season.

“It becomes saturated. There’s a hit and then everybody commissions stuff which is almost identical, and it reaches a tipping point.

“What we call appointment viewing – what people sit down to watch – has moved on to shows like Bake Off and others outside of the musical space.”

While last year’s Strictly was the most popular yet, consistently beating the X Factor in the ratings battle, it was boosted in part by the presence of well-loved contestants such as former shadow chancellor Ed Balls, who became a national talking point.

The new line-up, which includes JLS singer Aston Merrygold, TV chef and presenter Simon Rimmer, one EastEnders cast member and two from Holby City, has failed to garner as much excitement.

“Strictly has been resilient, and a lot of that has to do with the celebrities they get and the personalities of those celebrities – the juxtaposition of people we know from somewhere else dancing,” Harrington said. “Television shows don’t generally increase ratings over the course of a series, so if you don’t have recognisable, exciting names to launch with, there’s a good chance it will open with a smaller initial audience. It’s the 15th series, you’re going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel.”

Boyd Hilton, entertainment director of Heat magazine and TV and film reviewer for BBC Radio 5 live, said: “I’m slightly surprised by the Strictly line up – it definitely didn’t feel as exciting as last year.

“But shows like Strictly and I’m a Celebrity, which also rely on casting, can often surprise you. Someone like Richard Coles, who isn’t as famous now, might end up being engaging and funny and generate a fan base.”

Hilton said the format of Strictly was “almost unimpeachable” and the new series would inevitably do well. “Other reality shows can get someone from Geordie Shore, Towie or Made in Chelsea, whereas Strictly goes for more actors, pop stars and politicians. It’s hard to get a certain calibre of contestant as time goes on. But the audience ranges from eight-year-olds to pensioners, enough people will recognise the contestants for it to be fine.”

ITV said X Factor was still an important part of its schedule as a show that can deliver big audiences every weekend through to December. The channel said the show’s launch won a 32% share of Saturday night’s television audience, rising to a 50% share for the 16 to 34-year-old age bracket. This year’s figures are likely to rise when the official ratings are released next week, which will include viewers who recorded the shows and watched up to seven days afterwards on catch-up.

“The bottom line is the X Factor still makes a huge amount of money for ITV and appeals to young people,” Hilton said. “For a format that’s allegedly dying or needs refreshing, it’s actually the only format they know that works.”

Meanwhile, BBC sources recently told the Sun they failed to sign big names for Strictly because of a so-called “curse” on contestants’ relationships.

“It’s hard for husbands or wives to go on the show because they always run off with the dancer. I reckon that’s a compelling factor on whether people go on the show,” said Harrington.

Two of this year’s Strictly contestants, actor Joe McFadden and Saturdays singer Mollie King, insisted they were not looking for love on the show. “[Not] any more here than I would be on a night out with my girlfriends,” King said.

This article was amended on 9 September 2017 to clarify the comparisons between the ratings of X Factor launch episodes.