In Sept. 1859, the sun unleashed a series of solar flares so powerful that telegraph offices caught fire and auroras were seen as far south as Cuba. Known as the Carrington Event, this iconic solar storm is a touchstone for discussions of extreme space weather.

Could it happen again? In a paper published May 10th, researchers from the University of Birmingham use Extreme Value Theory to estimate the average time between “Carrington-like flares.” Their best answer: ~100 years. In other words, we may be overdue for a really big storm. Read the original research here.