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Wake County, N.C., which includes Raleigh, is well-positioned to draw a new influx of migrants, writes Joel Kotkin. In this map, blue lines indicate counties that send more migrants to Raleigh than they take; red lines indicate counties that take more than they send. Click the image to visit the interactive migration map.

Much has been made, particularly by urban boosters, of the generally slowing rate of migration out from dense urban areas such as Chicago, New York or Los Angeles to generally less dense, largely sunbelt oriented areas. Yet there is good reason to regard this as more of a hiccup caused by the depth of the recession than the emergence of a new, long-term trend.

For one thing, despite the economic slowdown, the migration patterns of the large urban centers remain negative, albeit less so. Los Angeles, where I live, continues to lose migrants from all but a handful of places, such as Chicago. Out-migration remains the rule, albeit less pronounced, for both New York and the Windy City. Overall, despite the hosannas about “back to the city” growth, suburbs and less dense cities gained more in the last decade than in the 1990s.

The key question now is whether the slowing of out-migration will continue. Looking backward, the first decade of the 21st Century can be divided into three periods. The first, in the early 2000s, saw considerable out-bound migration from the major cities, particularly the large urban cores. The second, the period of the housing bubble, saw that trend accelerate, in part because of soaring prices and robust growth in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas and the major Texas metros.

The third period, which coincides with the bursting of the housing bubble and the Great Recession, showed slowing in migration in many sunbelt metros and in some, in hard-hit bubble economies such as Las Vegas and in Florida, actual out migration.

Is this reversal of fortune permanent, as urban-centric density lobby suggest? Not likely. As the economy, albeit slowly recovers, people will start to sell their houses again, and young people will migrate to places where housing is affordable and jobs more plentiful; particularly well positioned will be affordable, economically vibrant low-density communities such as Nashville and Raleigh. This latest trend is already evident in the 2010 American Community Survey, which shows a remarkable reversal in migration back toward the bubble-centric economies in Arizona and Florida. Rather than the much hyped, always delayed “back to the city” trend, we may be returning instead back to the future.