Do people want a second referendum now?

Yesterday’s local by-elections were – to put it mildly – an interesting bunch, including a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives on a 38.2% swing, a Green gain from an independent, and a rerun of a December by-election in Blackburn, which itself may have to be rerun after (according to unconfirmed reports) the Labour candidate turned out to be a council employee and therefore ineligible. So one of Higher Croft’s three seats may end up having four councillors in six months…

This week’s Polling Matters includes an Opinium poll on a potential second EU referendum, one e terms of the terms of the Brexit deal are known. They last asked this question back in December, and the results (and changes since then) are 38 (+5) in favour and 52 (=) against. So a slight increase in support for a second referendum at the expense of undecided. This might be interesting to track as negotiations take place, but the chances of a second referendum actually happening seem remote.

Related

About The Author

NCP founder Matt Singh is the elections and polling analyst that publicly predicted the 2015 industry-wide polling failure the day before. He is based in London and tweets at @MattSingh_. For further information and media inquiries, please see About NCP.

Number Cruncher Politics

Number Cruncher Politics is the non-partisan UK polling and psephology site that predicted the 2015 opinion polling disaster. For more information please see the 'about' page or connect via social media.

RSS Feeds

Disclaimer The information on this site is believed to be correct but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy. NO RESPONSIBILITY WILL BE ACCEPTED FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM YOUR USE OF THIS SITE.

Our website uses cookies which are pieces of information that is stored on your computer's hard drive and which records how you move your way around a website so that, when you revisit that website, it can present tailored options based on the information stored about your last visit. Cookies can also be used to analyse traffic and for advertising and marketing purposes. Read more about the cookies we use by clicking here. By clicking CONTINUE you agree to cookies being used in accordance with our Cookie Policy. If you don’t agree you can disable cookies – see the Cookie Policy for more details.Continue