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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Midwest Region Breakdown

1 Louisville 16 vs. Alabama St./Morehead St. - As usual, this will be a blowout by the top seed in the tourney. Anything less will be seen as a weakness. Pitino's guys are a pretty mature bunch

8 Ohio St. vs. 9 Siena - Ohio State just beat Michigan State three days ago, but lost to the Spartans twice during the regular season, along with double losses to Illinois and 2-1 against Purdue. The Buckeyes suffer from size disadvantages often and this will be no different. Siena went 16-2, won their conference and the tournament, winning their last three games by 25, 15 and 7 and have a bunch of double-digit wins. Losses to Tennessee by 14, Pitt by 13 and Kansas by 5 were quality outings. The Saints, getting 3 to 4 is a good deal because they could easily win this. In additon to their height advantage, their starters average one year more than the Buckeyes'.

5 Utah vs. 12 Arizona - This is a very tough draw for both teams in the opening round. This game is even. Arizona has been through the PAC-10 meat grinder and only won three games against ranked foes (Gonzaga, UCLA and Washington), but two of those games were among their highest-scoring outings. Utah has developed into a pretty good defensive team and have a solid big man in Luke Nevill and should prevail.

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Cleveland St. - Cleveland State won the Horizon league tournament to get in, but get a very tough draw in the Demon Deacons, one of the elite teams from the ACC. Wake was #1 for a week this season, and were no lower than 15 all year nationally. They have all the elements to get to the Final Four and have wins over North Carolina, Duke, Florida St. and Clemson, twice. The Dekes should advance, but the Vikings, a talented team, may not fall by as many as the spread, which is 7 1/2.

6 West Virginia vs. 11 Dayton Somewhat of a surprise, West Virginia is an 8 1/2-point favorite. That owes to their run in the Big East tournament, finally falling to Syracuse in OT in the semis. Dayton lost to a solid Duquesne team that should have gotten a bid as well, in the semifinals of the A-10 tourney, but had beaten them reg. season. Also has wins over Marquette and Xavier. The Mountaineers were 1-6 against ranked teams in the Big East, the only win coming against Villanova. Dayton's defense could make this close and they could pull a big upset here.

3 Kansas vs. 14 North Dakota St. - It would be a huge upset for the Bison to upset Bill Self's reigning champion Jayhawks, and the 10-point spread probably isn't a difficulty for this high-quality group with championship experience in Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins.

7 Boston College vs. 10 USC - As hot as USC is, they're only 2-point favs, but, as inconsistent both of these teams have been, a BC win is not out of the question. There's a good probability that both of these teams were mis-seeded, BC too high and USC too low. The Trojans did, after all, win the PAC-10 tourney to get in. Winning a major conference tournament should be worth at least a 5.

2 Michigan St. vs. 15 Robert Morris - The Spartans are likely to make an early exit in the tournament, but probably not here, though it's not out of the question as long as Michigan State keeps shooting at low percentages. The team concentrates so much on defense, they sometimes cannot find a consistent scorer, which cost them only occasionally. Usually, teams have to come up with a huge effort to beat them. Winning a game by 16 1/2, when you're only projected to score in the high 60s, even against a warm-up team like Robert Morris, is a pretty neat trick. Whether the Spartans are up to it will likely be determined by the play of Kalin Lucas, their best player and point guard. Michigan St. has a significant size advantage here as well, which could prove critical.