The Speaker’s Lobby: Midterm Preview

Four points about midterm elections in the House. First, historic norms favor the party opposed to the President by a lot in House contests. The President's party loses an average of 29 House seats in most midterms. Second, the sheer number of open seats which House Republicans must defend this fall is off the chart. More than 40 Republican seats are wide open.

Third, dismiss the old midterm standards. We operate now in the age of President Trump. Mr. Trump rode an inside straight to the White House two years ago. The rules have changed. Most midterm elections are a referendum on the first two years of a new president. Study what happened to President Clinton in 1994 and President Obama in 2010. Voters repudiated both chief executives with historic pickups, flipping control of the House. It's unknown if supporters of President Trump show up just to cast a ballot for someone not named President Trump.

And four, control of the House could be close. Five or six seats in either direction. And because so many contests are tight, it's possible we may not know which party controls the House for a while.