The men in white are always right

And the opposition will be lucky to win even a handful of seats

AND they're off! Parliament was dissolved on April 19th; election day is May 7th. And out on the hustings, campaigners are gearing up. Candidates pile on and off battle-buses. Glossy pamphlets are thrust into reluctant hands. And squealing babies are insistently kissed. It all looks deceptively similar to the Westminster model on which it is based. But in Singapore, opposition politicians know that they can press the flesh until the end of time and come no nearer to breaking the grip that the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) maintains over the government.

This is not for want of dissatisfied voters or impressive opposition candidates. Many Singaporeans are dismayed by the rising cost of food, petrol and other basics in an already expensive city. Opposition politicians talk persuasively about the lot of the working poor. In a state that has little welfare provision, it is not uncommon to see people in their late 70s still working at restaurants or in supermarkets.

Rather, it has much to do with Singapore's singular first-past-the-post system. In particular, the introduction of Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) in 1988 has tilted the ground in the ruling party's favour. Citizens in GRCs vote for a party, not an individual MP. The GRCs can have four, five or six representatives and the party that wins the constituency gets them all. The ostensible reason for introducing GRCs was to ensure ethnic-minority representation in parliament as every contesting party has to field at least one minority candidate on its slate. In practice, however, the party with the deepest pockets and most candidates wins the GRCs, which this time will return 75 of the 87 elected MPs. The opposition has never won a GRC. Such is the PAP's lock that others rarely contest more than half of them. This time, the opposition is likely to contest more, but will do well to win even one.

Instead, the opposition hopes to pick up some of the 12 single-member constituencies (SMC), as it usually does. At the previous election they won two. However, in case the whole system looks a bit unfair (this is a democracy after all) the ruling party regularly stresses its sincere belief in an effective parliamentary opposition, if only to keep its own MPs on their toes. So the government is increasing the number of non-constituency members in the next parliament to nine. These are the most successful losers among the opposition. They may be in parliament, but they cannot vote on constitutional and finance bills. It is, one of their number in the 2001-06 parliament, Steve Chia, argues, “just for show”. Mr Chia, as a leader of the National Solidarity Party, this time has one of the better chances of winning a precious SMC.

There is no sign yet of a fraying of the basic compact between the PAP and Singaporeans, who trade some individual freedoms for the prosperity and stability provided by an efficient ruling party. However, at this election the usual triumph of the PAP will not disguise the fact that many Singaporeans do feel dissatisfied. There is even a possibility, some analysts think, that the PAP's share of the vote could dip below 60%. Although that will not stop it piling up its usual mountain of MPs, at that point “the men in white”, as the PAP are called after their plain attire, may have to revisit some of their longstanding policies. Otherwise the rift between the aspirations of the electorate and the composition of their representatives in parliament may become too wide.