Little appetite for Turkish accession

Turkey’s relations with the EU are complex, close and at times contentious – and are shaped by issues that are determined more by the country’s longstanding links with Europe than by the narrower questions of EU membership.

Until a century ago, Turkey controlled much of the Balkans, a region with which it still feels a great affinity. It was from Europe that Kemal Ataturk drew inspiration for the enlightenment and modernisation ideology that shaped its post-First World War establishment as a nation-state.

Europe is also an important trading partner for Turkey – the world’s fastest-growing economy – and the place where millions of Turks have made their home.

Turkey is a member of NATO, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and the Council of Europe. Amid all of this, the only really significant EU link is the customs union that opens up the EU’s internal market.

At the same time, no other candidate provokes the resistance that Turkey’s bid for EU membership has generated – despite the remoteness of any possible accession. Turkey faces formidable obstacles on its way to the EU; even inveterate optimists dare not predict when it might actually join.

The first, and most obvious, obstacle is Turkey’s continued occupation of one-third of Cyprus. Without a withdrawal, and recognition of the Republic of Cyprus, Turkey will not be able to join the EU – so a settlement on Cyprus is a precondition for Turkey joining the Union.

Religion

Even if the Cyprus problem were settled (a big if, on current trends), Turkey would continue to face resistance from countries such as France, Germany and Austria. French voters will be asked to approve any EU enlargement beyond Croatia, and a positive result for Turkey is at present hard to imagine.

It is not simply that Turkey is Muslim. Christian Democrats across the Union have argued that Islam is not a European religion and that overwhelmingly Muslim Turkey does not qualify as a European country – but no such objections are being raised about the candidate countries in the Western Balkans with a Muslim majority (Albania and Kosovo) or plurality (Bosnia and Herzegovina).

The issue is that Turkey is a big Muslim country, in every sense of the word. It covers an area more than twice the size of Germany. It is an important diplomatic player (unlike any of the Union’s other would-be members). Its interests extend far beyond the EU. And it is a big economy that is at the same time poor by European standards.

Turkey’s Justice and Development (AK) Party, in power since 2002, has been an assertive but generally constructive international player. The AK has delivered core reforms required for closer links with the EU – something that the secular parties which preceded them in government never achieved.

Even so, the party – with its Islamism-tinged agenda, its social conservatism, and the authoritarian tendencies of its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister – has heightened anxieties in the EU about the changes that Turkey’s accession would bring about in the Union itself.

As so often with the EU’s shifting borders, enlarging the EU to Turkey turns out to be about the Union’s identity as much as Turkey’s.