They’re doing their best to put on a brave face, but it’s clear Malcolm Turnbull, Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison survived the backpacker tax fiasco by the skin of his teeth yesterday. Picture: Mick Tsikas / AAPSource:AAP

ANALYSIS

HE TURNED up in triumph, but today Malcolm Turnbull has only survival to celebrate after his first full parliamentary year as Prime Minister.

And even that was a close run thing, right up until final business last night.

The forced and feeble conviviality among natural political enemies of the night highlighted how close Malcolm Turnbull came to a catastrophic year’s end.

The Nationals thanked the Greens while the Liberals cheered One Nation, as the Prime Minister wiped the sweat from his brow, troubled by his close backpacker tax shave.

People Malcolm Turnbull ordinarily wouldn’t take to a rock fight were glowingly name checked. That’s how much danger he was in late yesterday.

Most of Malcolm Turnbull’s achievements this year have been close shaves.

His leadership was nearly smothered by a chaotic tax debate early in 2016; he only won his double dissolution election by one seat; he met his legislative KPIs but had to trade so much in the Senate, laws he passed had scant resemblance to the original models.

However, survival is a form of victory, and that will be the basis for any Turnbull claim of a victory in 2016.

He survived the crude prodding of his predecessor Tony Abbott and related fan club. He lived through the so-called Killing Season when his opinion polling was in a major slump. He managed to harness enough of the Senate cross benchers keen to use their leverage to prevent major disruption — just.

And he took delivery of a clever, last-minute package from the Greens to get through the farcical backpacker tax.

That’s why he and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce last night seemed close to renaming their firstborns Richard and Pauline: Pauline Hanson and Richard Di Natale had saved their backpacker bacon.

The Prime Minister and his deputy attempted to argue it was all a product of routine, grown-up consultation, but it wasn’t. It was a rushed rescue.

This is the look of a man who has survived the year. Just. Picture: Lukas Coch / AAPSource:AAP

There will be more potential narrow scrapes ahead for Mr Turnbull.

Here are a few:

BUDGET

Revenue is dragging and the options for cost cutting are shrinking. Treasurer Scott Morrison has yet to legislate his company tax cuts worth $50 billion over 10 years while dealing with a deficit of about $40 million. A prominent debate will be over the threshold for small business. The political task will be as delicate as the economic one. Remember the promise of balanced books by 2020. More will be known after the mid year Budget report.

STATE ELECTIONS

Contests in Queensland and Western Australia will be seen as tests of the federal Coalition’s standing, and the potency of One Nation to knock off the big parties. In Queensland it will be taken as a measure of the Liberal National Party (LNP), described by Attorney-General George Brandis as “very, very mediocre”.

ELECTION REPORT

A high power panel is reviewing the Liberal campaign for the July 2 election and will report early-ish in 2017. It would be unusual, if not unprecedented for the leader to be criticised in such a document. However, it’s mere evidence will revive questions, such as ‘why wasn’t Bill Shorten belted with his trade union career in a campaign based on laws to restrain trades unions?’

MINISTRY

So far it is just gossip and too close to the last reshuffle, but the speculation about a new executive has been strong enough for Tony Abbott to renew his application for a cabinet gig. And there is constant, unconfirmed speculation Attorney-General will seek new horizons to conqueror.

SAME SEX MARRIAGE

It’s not going away like some type of fashion theme and Mr Turnbull will have to chose between legislating Marriage Act changes or having another go at pushing through a plebiscite. Does he upset a significant slice of the electorate or a significant slice of the Coalition backbench?

Should he miss on any of these matters, survival might not entitle Malcolm Turnbull to claim victory in 2017 as vigorously as he is for 2016.