White House Finds GOP May Not Be Able to Deliver NAFTA Votes

By Ann Devroy
and Dan Balz

The Washington Post

WASHINGTON

With the House vote on the North American Free Trade Agreement just days
away, the White House and its congressional allies have found that
Republicans may not be able to deliver as many votes as they were counting
on.

As the administration was trying to get a clearer picture of the votes
needed, lobbying on NAFTA shifted Thursday from the Capitol to swing
districts across the country. The administration dispatched Cabinet
officers to Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina, California and
Missouri to help offset an expected onslaught of anti-NAFTA rallies by
organized labor and Ross Perot's United We Stand America.

The lobbying appeared to center around roughly 50 House members, about 30
of them Democrats.

By its count, the White House will have to pickup at least half of these
genuinely undecided members.

But those efforts were complicated when Republicans and Democrats sat down
together Wednesday to compare votes. The White House had assumed
Republicans would produce 120 votes for the pact, and Democrats roughly
100. But during the meeting, Republicans reportedly said they would have
trouble getting to 120 votes.

House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., has said publicly Republicans
would come up with 110 of their 175 House members to vote for NAFTA and the
White House would have to produce an equal number to reach the 218 votes
needed for passage. But both sides understood privately that the White
House would have trouble producing more than 95 to 100 Democratic votes.

"If the Republicans get 110, we're dead," said one of the senior White
House officials lobbying for the pact.

Republicans, in the Wednesday session, told the White House they want the
same thing as many Democrats: as much political cover from President
Clinton as they can get if they vote for the agreement.

Among the GOP suggestions was some formal statement or letter from Clinton
assuring Republicans that NAFTA should not be an issue in congressional
campaigns. The point is that if a Democratic challenger makes the issue of
the NAFTA vote, the GOP incumbent can at least hold up a letter saying the
head of his party and president supported NAFTA.

Some administration officials dismissed the idea. "We take on Perot. We
take on labor. Now they want a letter. It's crazy," said one official.
Nonetheless, another senior official said Thursday night, "We are looking
at it." That the White House would consider the request was an indication
of just how precious every vote is at this point.

A Republican leadership source, reflecting the struggle this bipartisan
effort has been, said, "The White House and the Democrats have been looking
at where they can get to and say the Republicans have to make up the rest
and the Republicans are looking at what they can do and say the Democrats
have to get the rest. It shows you what a rough job getting these last 10
votes is going to be from here."