Yahoo! Games

Chris Wesseling

Draft Analysis

The Upside Index

You want to make ESPN’s Matthew Berry feel old? Tell him, as I did this week, that you have been reading his material since he began his fantasy football writing career at Rotoworld nearly 15 years ago.

The league that first introduced me to fantasy football -- complete with Monday morning USA Today box-score tabulations and results that were sent via snail mail each week -- limped into its 20th anniversary draft Tuesday night.

Out of 12 high school buddies, I am the only one still unmarried and childless. Real life has trumped fantasy for the other 11 members of the Backyard All-Stars FF League, taking with it the rivalries, barbs and even draft preparation of yesteryear. How fun can a fantasy draft possibly be if half the league is consulting the Rotoworld Draft Guide for each selection?

As dinosaurs of the industry, however, Berry and I have learned valuable lessons along the way. Three of the core tenets of my philosophy are especially applicable to this column:

A). Go with your gut. It’s your team; draft the players you like. You will be surprised how often your gut steers you toward the right decision. Particularly in the first round, do not ask Chris Wesseling, Matthew Berry or Evan Silva which player you should draft. The next step is asking us to wine and dine your wife for you. Don’t be a fantasy football cuckold.

One of the maxims of legendary ex-Packers GM Ron Wolf is relevant: “It’s better to draft a player you like a round too early than miss him a round too late.” This applies to fantasy football as well. If you don’t want to kick yourself for missing out on Julio Jones’ coming out party, don’t worry about reaching for him. You’ve done your homework. It’s your hobby. Trust your instincts.

B). Exploit the industry-wide tendency toward consensus revolving around an over-emphasis on last year’s statistics. For some inexplicable reason, we have to re-learn every September that the previous year’s numbers don’t carry over.

We have two years of data on Michael Vick as the Eagles’ starting QB. In one of those years, he was the runaway fantasy MVP, putting trophies on mantles across America. The other year brought a disappointing 12th-place finish (sixth in points per-game). Since that one is the most recent of the two (click here for more insight on “recency bias”), it’s the one upon which the industry bases Vick’s expected 2012 value. Don’t fall for this trap.

C). In an offseason interview with Footballguys.com, I was asked, “What is the biggest mistake you see fantasy players make?” The answer was easy: “Drafting established mediocrities over high-risk players with major upside.”

The key to fantasy football is collecting difference-makers that give you an advantage over your opponent on a weekly basis. In the game of resource scarcity, the risk often associated with drafting these talents is worth the payoff. If you want to collect mediocrities, wait for the in-season waiver wire for a chance to pluck players on par with the ones your opponent drafted in Rounds 6-12.

Truth be told, this philosophy has long driven Rotoworld’s projections, rankings and even news bias. More so than other fantasy sites, Rotoworld has preached from the “swing for the fences” pulpit. That said, we are still obligated to perform the risk versus reward calculation on each player.

But how would a draft look if we devalued safety and mediocrity and eliminated factors such as injury risk, usage question marks and the over-emphasis on last year’s statistics? What if we drafted without regard for floor, with eyes only on the best-case scenario ceiling? Let’s give it a stab.

1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders - Not only was McFadden No. 1 in fantasy points when he went down in Week 7 last year, he also finished second only to Arian Foster in points per game two years ago. You could make the argument -- and then-coach Hue Jackson did -- that McFadden had already stolen Adrian Peterson’s tailback crown before their respective mid-season injuries. If you want to fall in love with McFadden, check out 2011 NFL Game Rewind clips of him and Chris Johnson back-to-back.

Any prospective McFadden owner still waffling over his injury history should pore over Frank DuPont’s polemic on “injury prone” as well as Footballguys’ Jene Bramel’s medical breakdown (podcast link, 55-60 minute mark) of the star back’s injury history.

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - I loathe fantasy football projections. They limit possibilities, stifle the imagination and are slave to the past at the expense of the future. The same people who failed to envision nearly 1,700 yards for Megatron last season will tell you that he can’t repeat the feat. Poppycock. The 200-yard performances in three of his last four games to close out the season suggest the sky is the limit.

3. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - See introduction for explanation. Vick was the landslide fantasy MVP two years ago. Loaded with weapons and coming off the most scrimmage yards in Eagles history (for the second time in two seasons), Vick’s ceiling is the record-breaking 49 standard-scoring fantasy points dropped on the Redskins in November of 2010.

4. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - CJ2K boasts a 2,500-yard ceiling, hasn’t missed a game in three years and appears to have recaptured pre-holdout form this summer. The question is whether the offensive line can block at a level commensurate with the 2008-09 seasons.

5. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots - Buoyed by the arrival of the second-greatest wide receiver in NFL history, Brady topped 50 touchdowns in a legendary fantasy season five years ago. Brandon Lloyd isn’t quite Randy Moss as a vertical weapon, but he doesn’t need to be. Brady is now equipped with a traditional inline tight end, slot receiver and joker tight end that may all rank among the best at their positions by the end of their respective careers.

You want to make ESPN’s Matthew Berry feel old? Tell him, as I did this week, that you have been reading his material since he began his fantasy football writing career at Rotoworld nearly 15 years ago.

The league that first introduced me to fantasy football -- complete with Monday morning USA Today box-score tabulations and results that were sent via snail mail each week -- limped into its 20th anniversary draft Tuesday night.

Out of 12 high school buddies, I am the only one still unmarried and childless. Real life has trumped fantasy for the other 11 members of the Backyard All-Stars FF League, taking with it the rivalries, barbs and even draft preparation of yesteryear. How fun can a fantasy draft possibly be if half the league is consulting the Rotoworld Draft Guide for each selection?

As dinosaurs of the industry, however, Berry and I have learned valuable lessons along the way. Three of the core tenets of my philosophy are especially applicable to this column:

A). Go with your gut. It’s your team; draft the players you like. You will be surprised how often your gut steers you toward the right decision. Particularly in the first round, do not ask Chris Wesseling, Matthew Berry or Evan Silva which player you should draft. The next step is asking us to wine and dine your wife for you. Don’t be a fantasy football cuckold.

One of the maxims of legendary ex-Packers GM Ron Wolf is relevant: “It’s better to draft a player you like a round too early than miss him a round too late.” This applies to fantasy football as well. If you don’t want to kick yourself for missing out on Julio Jones’ coming out party, don’t worry about reaching for him. You’ve done your homework. It’s your hobby. Trust your instincts.

B). Exploit the industry-wide tendency toward consensus revolving around an over-emphasis on last year’s statistics. For some inexplicable reason, we have to re-learn every September that the previous year’s numbers don’t carry over.

We have two years of data on Michael Vick as the Eagles’ starting QB. In one of those years, he was the runaway fantasy MVP, putting trophies on mantles across America. The other year brought a disappointing 12th-place finish (sixth in points per-game). Since that one is the most recent of the two (click here for more insight on “recency bias”), it’s the one upon which the industry bases Vick’s expected 2012 value. Don’t fall for this trap.

C). In an offseason interview with Footballguys.com, I was asked, “What is the biggest mistake you see fantasy players make?” The answer was easy: “Drafting established mediocrities over high-risk players with major upside.”

The key to fantasy football is collecting difference-makers that give you an advantage over your opponent on a weekly basis. In the game of resource scarcity, the risk often associated with drafting these talents is worth the payoff. If you want to collect mediocrities, wait for the in-season waiver wire for a chance to pluck players on par with the ones your opponent drafted in Rounds 6-12.

Truth be told, this philosophy has long driven Rotoworld’s projections, rankings and even news bias. More so than other fantasy sites, Rotoworld has preached from the “swing for the fences” pulpit. That said, we are still obligated to perform the risk versus reward calculation on each player.

But how would a draft look if we devalued safety and mediocrity and eliminated factors such as injury risk, usage question marks and the over-emphasis on last year’s statistics? What if we drafted without regard for floor, with eyes only on the best-case scenario ceiling? Let’s give it a stab.

1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders - Not only was McFadden No. 1 in fantasy points when he went down in Week 7 last year, he also finished second only to Arian Foster in points per game two years ago. You could make the argument -- and then-coach Hue Jackson did -- that McFadden had already stolen Adrian Peterson’s tailback crown before their respective mid-season injuries. If you want to fall in love with McFadden, check out 2011 NFL Game Rewind clips of him and Chris Johnson back-to-back.

Any prospective McFadden owner still waffling over his injury history should pore over Frank DuPont’s polemic on “injury prone” as well as Footballguys’ Jene Bramel’s medical breakdown (podcast link, 55-60 minute mark) of the star back’s injury history.

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - I loathe fantasy football projections. They limit possibilities, stifle the imagination and are slave to the past at the expense of the future. The same people who failed to envision nearly 1,700 yards for Megatron last season will tell you that he can’t repeat the feat. Poppycock. The 200-yard performances in three of his last four games to close out the season suggest the sky is the limit.

3. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - See introduction for explanation. Vick was the landslide fantasy MVP two years ago. Loaded with weapons and coming off the most scrimmage yards in Eagles history (for the second time in two seasons), Vick’s ceiling is the record-breaking 49 standard-scoring fantasy points dropped on the Redskins in November of 2010.

4. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - CJ2K boasts a 2,500-yard ceiling, hasn’t missed a game in three years and appears to have recaptured pre-holdout form this summer. The question is whether the offensive line can block at a level commensurate with the 2008-09 seasons.

5. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots - Buoyed by the arrival of the second-greatest wide receiver in NFL history, Brady topped 50 touchdowns in a legendary fantasy season five years ago. Brandon Lloyd isn’t quite Randy Moss as a vertical weapon, but he doesn’t need to be. Brady is now equipped with a traditional inline tight end, slot receiver and joker tight end that may all rank among the best at their positions by the end of their respective careers.

6. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - If Brady’s 2007 season isn’t statistically the best ever by a quarterback, it’s because Rogers was even more lethal on a per-play basis a year ago. Brady and Peyton Manning were unable to repeat their outlier seasons, but they weren’t blessed with as many talented young offensive weapons entering the prime of their careers. Not to be overlooked is Rodgers’ scrambling ability, good for an extra 40-50 fantasy points.

7. Arian Foster, RB, Texans - Can Foster really go up from here? He’s one of just five tailbacks in history with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving. He’s also finished first in fantasy points per game in consecutive seasons. Even with a new right side of the offensive line, Foster has one of the highest floors in fantasy. We may have already witnessed his ceiling, however.

8. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Jones tops the list of impressive players witnessed by CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco in his extensive training camp tour. “If he doesn’t catch 85 passes for 1,500 yards, I will be shocked,” writes Prisco. I feel the same way. Julio is a mirror image of a young Terrell Owens, without the accompanying drama.

9. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - Even if we expect improvement as a passer this season, it’s quite possible that Newton hit his fantasy ceiling as a rookie. In addition to shattering the rushing touchdowns record, Newton became the first quarterback in history to pass for 4,000+ yards and rush for 500+ yards. He’s not going to start this season with back-to-back 400-yard games.

10. Drew Brees, QB, Saints - If you believe in bad voodoo, the Saints certainly seem cursed in 2012. Brees may be without offensive mastermind Sean Payton this year, but he averaged 438 passing yards in the final three games of last season with OC Pete Carmichael Jr. calling the shots. Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles are arguably the most unguardable players at their respective positions and old reliable Marques Colston still sports one of the game’s most impressive catch radii.

11. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots - As I alluded to in the Tom Brady comments, Gronk has bypassed Hall of Famer Mike Ditka for the best tight-end start in NFL history. In the first 34 games of Gronkowski’s career (including the playoffs), he piled up 31 touchdowns. He’s the league’s premier red-zone weapon.

12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - Finally over a November finger injury on his throwing hand, Stafford closed out the season with a per-game average of 416 yards and 3.75 touchdowns over the final month. Those numbers are so funny they hardly seem believable.

13. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles - Shady has emerged as perhaps the best all-around talent at his position, but he’s not going to repeat last year’s franchise record-breaking total of 20 touchdowns.

14. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers - The most efficient per-play starting running back in the NFL last season, Mathews’ counting stats are set to spike with Mike Tolbert out of the picture. Coach Norv Turner spent the offseason dropping hints that Mathews would break out behind the league’s heaviest workload. Remember: Turner’s primary back finished in the top-five in touches 11 times from 1991-2008.

15. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys - Offensive line and injury questions aside, we caught a glimpse of Murray’s potential with a seven-game average of 136.1 scrimmage yards at nearly six yards per rush before a fractured right ankle ended his season in Week 14.

16. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints - Why send a skinny slot receiver over the middle to get pulverized when Graham can’t be guarded by a linebacker or a safety? Although the college hoopster still has room to grow, Gronkowski has a decisive 31-19 touchdown advantage through two seasons.

17. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens - Including the playoffs, Rice has averaged 400+ touches over the past three seasons. Those numbers aren’t going to go up as the Ravens put more responsibilities in Joe Flacco’s hands via the no-huddle attack.

19. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings - From Week 7 -- when Christian Ponder took over as the starter -- to the end of the season, Harvin racked up 100 touches. The next closest receiver didn’t even top 75 over that span. Harvin finished as the No. 7 fantasy receiver even though his coordinator didn’t figure out how to use him until November. Over the final eight games, Harvin averaged 103.3 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per week.

20. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys - Barring debilitating injury or harebrained arrest, Bryant is a lock for a breakout season. He’s a darkhorse candidate to overtake Calvin Johnson for the most touchdowns among wideouts.

22. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans - Johnson isn’t going to pace the NFL in receiving yards per game as he did in three of four seasons from 2007-2010. The Texans are now a run-oriented offense.

23. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals - Give him back Kurt Warner and I wouldn’t rule out a run at a 2,000-yard season. As it now, though, Fitz’s upside is handicapped by the league’s worst offensive and quarterback situations.

24. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - Lynch isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, and his monster nine-game stretch to close out last season was volume-driven and unrepeatable.

25. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers - After decisively outplaying LeGarrette Blount, Martin is poised to enter the season as an every-down back in Greg Schiano’s run-heavy offense.

27. Matt Forte, RB, Bears - Jackson and Forte were neck-and-neck for the NFL lead in scrimmage yards until injuries ended their seasons prematurely in November. Both could end up losing value to talented backups, though F-Jax remains his team’s red-zone weapon of choice. Forte is a lock to be pulled for Michael Bush at the goal line.

28. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals - Green is a bonafide top-five receiver on talent alone, but Andy Dalton hasn’t moved this offense consistently since before Thanksgiving.

29. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots - There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but Lloyd finished as fantasy’s top receiver the last time he played a full season with Josh McDaniels calling the plays.

30. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - Charles will enter the season in a 50-50 timeshare with Peyton Hillis. His ceiling in that scenario may be limited to borderline RB1 production, but it skyrockets if Hillis goes down with an injury.

36. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers - Is it debilitating for an uber-talented receiver to miss training camp practices under a new coordinator? A hamstring injury kept Kenny Britt off the field for roughly four weeks last August while Chris Palmer was installing his offense. Playing under a snap-count, Britt exploded for 14 receptions, 271 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games of the regular season.

38. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos - With Peyton Manning as his quarterback, Austin Collie was fantasy’s No. 1 receiver through six weeks before undergoing thumb surgery back in 2010. Decker is a souped-up Collie. Extrapolated over a full season, Thomas’ final seven games would have left him as the No. 2 fantasy receiver in 2011. Never let it be said that Tim Tebow’s first read doesn’t produce fantasy numbers.

40. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots - The historic seasons of Gronkowski and Graham obscure the fact that Hernandez averaged more points per game than Jason Witten did while leading all tight ends in fantasy points two years ago.

41. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants - Eli Manning loves throwing to the receiver lining up in the slot, and Cruz finished with the third-most yards after the catch. The breakout season wasn’t a fluke, but Cruz’s five scores over 65 yards were the second-most in a season in NFL history. One-third of his fantasy value came on those five plays.

43. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - Ryan is this year’s best bet to go Matthew Stafford on the league in Dirk Koetter’s up-tempo offense. It’s Julio Jones, not White, who will be the offensive focal point, however. Look for White’s reception numbers to fall in line with his 2007-09 average of 85.3 as opposed to the 107.5 over the past two years while leading the NFL in targets.

44. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens - @RotoPat has been conducting the Torrey Train all offseason, but it was Silva who first compared Smith to an early-career Roddy White, type-cast as a drop-prone deep threat but still creating “cavities of separation.” Silva suggested this week that Smith has top-10 fantasy upside if coordinator Cam Cameron sticks with the no-huddle attack used heavily in preseason action.

45. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles - Maclin was on pace for 90 receptions and over 1,200 yards before shoulder and hamstring injuries limited him to 19 catches and 253 yards in the second half of last season. Beat writers and teammates spent the offseason issuing “breakout alerts” for Maclin.

46. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears - Combing through the fawning Windy City newspaper coverage all offseason, I’m left pondering the following question: Should we play out the season or just hand the Bears the Lombardi Trophy right now?

47. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars - There’s a sentiment in Jacksonville that the new coaching staff had planned to increase Rashad Jennings’ role in an effort to keep Jones-Drew’s legs fresh even before the protracted holdout. After witnessing Chris Johnson’s collapse last year, I have a hard time finding the upside in drafting Jones-Drew this summer.

49. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers - Stewart has been one of the handful of most talented backs since he entered the league in 2008. He’s an every-week stud if an injury forces DeAngelo to sit out multiple weeks for the third time in four seasons.

51. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots - Welker failed to crack 60 yards in seven of the Patriots’ final 11 games last season while Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez took over the passing game. I’m not expecting a bounce-back to early-season production for Welker now that Brandon Lloyd is also in the picture.

59. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers - Benson’s workload won’t be heavy enough to match the late-career renaissance seasons of Stephen Davis with the Panthers in 2003 and Corey Dillon with the Patriots in 2004, but he could have that kind of rejuvenation in Green Bay.

60. Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs - Hillis is just as good of a bet for double-digit touchdowns as Ridley. A better comparison would be LenDale White, who derived a good portion of his 2008 value from Chris Johnson’s ability to move the ball efficiently before giving way at the goal line.

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling