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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GIL IS CONTINUING TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING
AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 55
KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THERE IS
VERY GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. GIL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...AND THUS STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR TO
BE WEAK. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTS...
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...WITH THE BAM MODELS AND GFDL
CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...AND NHC91 AND NHC91UK
CALLING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. A POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS
INTERACTION WITH T.D. NINE-E LOCATED 750 NM EAST-NORTHEAST. THE
MOST LIKELY RESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION ON GIL WOULD BE A SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO...BUT
SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH T.D. NINE-E.
FORECASTER BEVEN/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 15.4N 124.8W 55 KTS
12HR VT 05/1200Z 15.4N 125.4W 60 KTS
24HR VT 06/0000Z 15.4N 126.2W 65 KTS
36HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W 70 KTS
48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 80 KTS
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