Sam Bradford and the Rams

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by Mike Horn, Staff Writer

Published, 4/1/14

I'll get back to my strength of schedule series soon, and I want to follow up on a few issues in this article. But with the Rams signing Kenny Britt, it got me thinking about Sam Bradford. I've read a lot of people think he still has potential to be a fantasy starting QB and a healthy, head-on-straight Britt could help Bradford meet that potential.

Let's review: As a rookie in 2010, he ranked 28th in fantasy points per game (FPG), per the site's default scoring system. In 2011, he was injury-plagued and fell to 38th in FPG. He stayed healthy in 2012 and climbed to 21st. And this past year, he was 17th in FPG when he went down for the year after Week Seven. Leaving aside 2011, that's 28th, 21st, and 15th. So I could argue that he's on an upward path and that 2014 is the season he finally will be worth starting.

But I won't.

First, I'm not entirely willing to overlook 2011.

Second, Bradford's 2013 ranking was fueled in part by an easy strength of schedule, as noted here. Yes, he did face two tough defenses in SF and CAR. The SF game was his worst outing and the CAR game was a so-so showing for him. He also played 3 of the 5 worst defenses for FPG (Dal, Atl, and Jac and had a mediocre game vs. the Cowboys). On balance, Bradford got to face the easier part of the 2013 Rams’ schedule. Bradford got hurt before having to face Sea twice or SF on the road. Even if he stays healthy for all of 2014, he's going to have to play those defenses again.

So I'm not convinced about the upward trend. But even if I’m wrong about those two points, three factors are working against Bradford: coaching, the Rams’ poor history of building a WR corps, and their poor record in assembling an offensive line.

Coaching

Now Bradford has suffered from coaching staff turnover, which has included some uninspiring offensive coordinators. This could be hindering his development and fantasy production. No one is confusing Brian Schottenheimer or Pat Shurmur with Mike Martz in his heyday. Schottenheimer did coax a #11 FPG ranking out of Mark Sanchez in 2011, but that's the best any QB has performed in his offense and was fueled in part by Sanchez scoring six times on the ground. Sanchez's 3rd year in the system was his best, so that could be a point in Bradford’s favor as this will be his 3rd year with Schottenheimer.

But that’s part of the problem. Schottenheimer is still the OC in Stl this year. I'd consider that a negative for Bradford's fantasy prospects. You may differ.

Also, Jeff Fisher seems committed to a system that counts on the defense and running the ball to win football games. Probably Schottenheimer’s familiarity with that approach with the Jets is what got him the job in the first place. Fisher has been a head coach for 19 seasons and his teams have ranked in the top 10 in pass attempts only three times – 2nd in 2004, 5th in 2005, and 10th in 1994. Not coincidentally, those were the three worst teams he coached measured by winning percentage: They won 5, 4, and 2 games, respectively. For his career, his teams have averaged 21st in passing attempts, and 27th since 2005, the last time he went pass happy. I think it’s safe to say Jeff Fisher teams will not chuck the ball around a lot except in desperation.

I think the Rams will again be a mediocre team, winning between 7 and 9 games. That means I do not think they will throw the ball enough times to make Bradford a fantasy starter on quantity alone. If the Rams were more likely to throw the ball in the red zone, they might get enough passing TDs, that might help. But Schottenheimer’s offenses from 2006 to 2013 have run the ball 587 times in the red zone while passing it 581. Over that period, NFL offenses have passed more than run inside the 20, so typically Schottenheimer offenses as less likely than average to throw in that situation. He has evolved a bit, with 56% passing attempt on all red zone plays since moving to Stl (NFL average, 53% those seasons). Even so, that doesn’t seem like it will generate a high number of TD passes for Bradford.

I have a hard time talking myself into a story that either the quality or the quantity of the passing game will justify Sam Bradford as a starting QB for fantasy.

Wide Receivers

It is often pointed out that Bradford has had a weak supporting receiver corps, particularly at WR. Well, Stl spent FA money on a new TE in 2013 plus two high draft picks (a 1st and a 3rd) on WRs. That did boost Bradford a bit, as we've seen.

But let's not ignore that Stl had already invested a pretty good amount in WRs in recent years. And those players are the ones who constituted the "weak supporting cast."

Let's look at the draft investments the Rams made in WRs from 2009 to 2013 (starting the year before they picked Bradford). I'll use two methods of calculating those investments: the "Jimmy Johnson" draft chart and a similar effort by Chase Stuart at Football Perspective that uses Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) statistic to value draft picks. This graph shows those two methods:

The blue diamonds are the AV method and the red triangles reflect the Johnson draft pick chart. The x-axis is the draft pick number. The left hand y-axis shows the value of a draft pick as calculated with the AV method. So the #1 pick in the AV method is worth just under 35 points, the 2nd pick about 30, etc. down the graph. The y-axis on the right side of the graph refers to Johnson's valuations, so if you find the red triangle for the #1 pick and read all the way to the right you'll see it's worth 3000 points in Johnson's system. The #2 choice is about 2600, etc.

Both systems generate similar-shaped curves, so they are consistent in some respects. But the AV system gives more relative weight to the picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and levels off much later in the draft. The Johnson system puts more relative weight on the very first few picks although both systems make the #1 pick extremely valuable relative to other draft slots.

So when I used those two systems to assign values to all the WRs drafted by the Rams in the last five drafts here's what I come up with:

Value of Draft Picks Used on WRs, 2009-2013

TEAM

AV System

Johnson System

Rank AV

Rank Johnson

STL

64

2629

1

1

TEN

48

2247

2

2

CIN

45

2223

4

3

JAX

45

2016

3

4

SFO

39

1992

5

5

OAK

36

1692

8

6

ATL

25

1625

18

7

MIN

37

1531

7

8

CLE

37

1371

6

9

KAN

32

1343

10

10

ARI

26

1323

16

11

NYG

34

1256

9

12

DET

28

1024

12

13

BUF

30

1015

11

14

DAL

26

1014

17

15

HOU

28

1010

13

16

DEN

26

998

14

17

PHI

20

930

22

18

NWE

26

721

15

19

TAM

17

608

25

20

CHI

19

593

23

21

PIT

22

577

21

22

SEA

23

565

19

23

NYJ

13

504

28

24

CAR

22

483

20

25

BAL

16

412

26

26

SDG

14

392

27

27

MIA

17

325

24

28

GNB

9

277

31

29

WAS

11

250

29

30

IND

10

186

30

31

NOR

7

84

32

32

The first column (Team) is self-explanatory. The 2nd column is the total draft value each team used on WRs according to the AV draft pick value system. The 3rd column is the total using the Johnson system. The 4th and 5th columns are the ranks in each system from 1-32 for each team with #1 meaning the team spent the most draft value on WRs in this period and #32 being the least value spent.

And the Rams are #1 in both methods. In case you've forgotten, here are those picks:

Year

Rnd

Pick

Player

Rec

Yds

TD

AV

JJ

2013

1

8

Tavon Austin

40

418

4

21.4

1400

2012

2

33

Brian Quick

29

458

4

12.3

580

2011

3

78

Austin Pettis

95

916

8

6.9

200

2013

3

92

Stedman Bailey

17

226

0

5.8

132

2012

4

96

Chris Givens

76

1267

3

5.5

116

2010

4

99

Mardy Gilyard

8

78

0

5.3

104

2011

4

112

Greg Salas

35

407

0

4.6

70

2009

5

160

Brooks Foster

2.3

27.4

The stats reflect the WRs career totals. The last two columns are the AV and Johnson (JJ) values of the picks spent on each player. Now look at all the players with at least 10 receptions total for the Rams from 2009-2013:

Player

From

To

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Y/G

Danny Amendola

2009

2012

196

1726

8.81

7

41.1

Steven Jackson

2009

2012

177

1359

7.68

1

21.9

Brandon Gibson

2009

2012

174

2090

12.01

9

38.7

Lance Kendricks

2011

2013

102

1129

11.07

8

24.5

Austin Pettis

2011

2013

95

916

9.64

8

21.8

Chris Givens

2012

2013

76

1267

16.67

3

40.9

Daniel Fells

2009

2010

62

664

10.71

5

22.1

Jared Cook

2013

2013

51

671

13.16

5

41.9

Brandon Lloyd

2011

2011

51

683

13.39

5

62.1

Donnie Avery

2009

2009

47

589

12.53

5

36.8

Laurent Robinson

2009

2010

47

511

10.87

3

30.1

Danario Alexander

2010

2011

46

737

16.02

3

40.9

Tavon Austin

2013

2013

40

418

10.45

4

32.2

Daryl Richardson

2012

2013

38

284

7.47

0

12.3

Randy McMichael

2009

2009

34

332

9.76

1

20.8

Billy Bajema

2009

2011

31

310

10

2

6.9

Brian Quick

2012

2013

29

458

15.79

4

14.8

Kenneth Darby

2009

2010

28

157

5.61

1

5.2

Greg Salas

2011

2011

27

264

9.78

0

44

Mark Clayton

2010

2011

26

332

12.77

2

47.4

Zac Stacy

2013

2013

26

141

5.42

1

10.1

Keenan Burton

2009

2009

25

253

10.12

0

28.1

Michael Hoomanawanui

2010

2011

20

229

11.45

3

14.3

Stedman Bailey

2013

2013

17

226

13.29

0

14.1

Cory Harkey

2012

2013

14

134

9.57

2

6.7

Isaiah Pead

2012

2013

14

94

6.71

0

3.8

Steve Smith

2012

2012

14

131

9.36

0

14.6

Cadillac Williams

2011

2011

14

93

6.64

0

8.5

Mike Karney

2009

2010

11

30

2.73

0

1.2

Mike Sims-Walker

2011

2011

11

139

12.64

0

34.8

The "From" and "To" columns reflect the years those players were with the Rams. There are 30 names; that is tied for the most players with at least 10 receptions for a franchise in this period. It's a good indicator of how badly the Rams have struggled to find decent pass catchers, especially WRs, in this period.

Of the top 10, only 5 are WRs and only 3 were originally drafted by the Rams. The top pass catcher, Danny Amendola, was an undrafted rookie free agent who was with the Cowboys and Eagles before the Rams and who the Rams didn't choose to keep out of free agency. The #3 player (Brandon Gibson) was another former Eagle the Rams traded for and who also is gone from the franchise. The list is so poor that #7 (Daniel Fells) was a UDFA TE with the Falcons that the Rams picked up in free agency. Jared Cook at #8 was another FA TE – his 2013 season was so good that it made the top 10 totals for five years.Brandon Lloyd in 2011 didn't even play a full season in Stl and he still made it to 9th place for the entire time period. Donnie Avery was the first WR drafted in 2008 and returned next to nothing on the Rams’ investment (#33 pick overall).

So when I see the Rams investing heavily in WRs in the draft and getting diddly out of it, I start to think the team hasn't got a clue about evaluating WR talent (or blame the coaches, see above). Yes, I know Jeff Fisher (and GM Les Snead) took over the franchise only in 2012 and can't be blamed for everything that went before him. But the WR picks of the last two years haven't paid immediate dividends.

For example, Austin was the 1st WR taken in 2013 and he managed just 40 receptions – 6 other rookies WRs had as many. Austin was hurt of course – shocking for a 5’9”, 174 pound player, I know. Austin’s 40 receptions ranked 9th out of 14 WRs taken in the top-10 picks over the last 10 seasons. He seems to be on the break point for future performance. The WRS who had more than 40 rookie catches (AJ Green, Justin Blackmon, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree, and Calvin Johnson) were a pretty strong group. Those with less than 40 (Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, “Big” Mike Williams, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson, and Darrius Heyward-Bey) generally went on to be busts, although there were a few flashes in there. I think Austin’s skill set and size are closer to the 2nd group than the 1st,so I’m not counting on him to be the player who breaks the trend of Stl WR draftees underperforming. But I could be wrong.

It’s possible that the 3rd year will be the charm for Brian Quick or that Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey will get it together this season. Of course, if the team believes that, why did they sign Kenny Britt? I’m still convinced that this group is not going to help Bradford.

Offensive line:

Another argument for Bradford is that he has had a weak OL. This also is not for lack of draft investment:

Value of Draft Picks Used on OL, 2009-2013

TEAM

AV System

Johnson System

Rank AV

Rank Johnson

PIT

58.4

2496.3

1

3

SEA

54.2

2945

2

2

CIN

49.6

2490.7

3

4

BUF

46.1

1685.2

4

10

STL

45.2

3211.4

5

1

SFO

43.4

2299.66

6

5

MIN

41

2233.8

7

6

JAX

39.7

2120

8

7

WAS

38

2093.34

9

8

KAN

37.7

1316.5

10

16

GNB

37.6

1497.78

11

13

CLE

37.6

1520.8

12

12

DEN

37

1216.2

13

18

MIA

37

1774

13

9

BAL

35.9

1346.8

15

15

NWE

35.7

1397

16

14

DAL

34.1

1659.94

17

11

OAK

33.8

999

18

19

IND

29

1241.2

19

17

ATL

27.7

690.4

20

22

PHI

23.4

866.2

21

20

HOU

21.9

554.8

22

24

NYG

20

444.6

23

26

DET

18.9

811.8

24

21

CAR

14.2

537.86

25

25

SDG

14

284.48

26

29

CHI

13.5

644.2

27

23

NOR

12.2

319.86

28

27

NYJ

10.3

316.4

29

28

ARI

9.5

128.6

30

30

TEN

5.1

59.9

31

31

TAM

2.5

29.4

32

32

The Rams had the 5th-most draft value invested in OL from 2009-2013 – or the most, depending on which system you believe in. Unfortunately, a lot of that was on Jason Smith who was a huge bust at 1.02 in 2009. They had more success with Roger Saffold in 2010 at 2.01. The only other pick they used on the OL in this span was a 5th rounder on Rokevious Watkins in 2012.

The Rams have tried to fix their line with trades, free agents, and picking up released players. They added Jake Long at LT last year and Scott Wells at C the year before. They also added Barry Richardson at RT in 2012 but let him go after a year (he’s played one game since). They did trade Jason Smith for Wayne Hunter; that didn’t help. Other pickups included former first-rounder Chris Williams and 3rd round pick Joe Barksdale after they’d been released.

The line has gotten better. Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams 26th in 2010, 28th the following year, and 26th again in 2012, but pegged them at 13th in 2013. Those ranks are similar to Football Outsiders numbers, except FO rated the line higher in 2012. Overall, the line hurt Bradford in his first few years, and the improvement may have contributed to his uptick in 2013.

The problem is that the starting center is going to be 33 unless Scott Wells is replaced and he’s played only 19 games the last two years. Long is coming back from a bad injury (ACL and MCL) suffered late in the season. Saffold tested free agency, was signed by the Raiders, and then failed a physical. The Rams claim to be unconcerned with Saffold’s shoulder and re-signed him, but it does raise some questions. Chris Williams is gone and it may be “good riddance,” but he has to be replaced.

That’s a lot of red flags for 2014, so I’d say the Rams OL isn’t projecting to be a strength right now. They do have some valuable picks that could change my assessment, but they’ve sort of committed to Long and Saffold at the tackles, so I’d be a little surprised to see a high pick on one this year.

Conclusion

For a long time, I think the Rams were terrible at talent evaluation. It’s possible when Jeff Fisher took over the franchise in 2012 that changed, but I think the jury is still out. If he can put a better cast around Bradford, that could help. But if you think the Rams prior to 2012 were poor at identifying good players, why would you think Bradford is the exception to that rule?

When I think of the three factors often blamed for keeping Bradford from being a fantasy-worthy QB – coaching, receiving corps, and offensive line – none look like they’ll be better in 2014 unless Britt has a major revival. Therefore, I have a hard time buying into him. It could be that more than those factors. It’s been injuries that have held him back. If so, a year of good health could make all the difference, but I’m not going to bet on that either. For me to own Bradford this year, he’s going to have to be awfully cheap, and I’m going to need a backup QB very badly.