We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference. Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season. Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial.

Managers are not likely to go with what is considered an optimal line up any time in the near future. They would be crucified by the press, the fans, and by the players if they went with an optimal lineup, because optimal lineups go against conventional thinking. So realistically, we are talking about 5 runs difference at most over the season in making these line up changes.

It is more important to split up lefties, and probably more important for the line up to have some consistency and comfort.

Once again Kimmi proves that she is the Eric Severeid of the forum.She comes here sporadically and says more in three paragraphs than the rest of the forum does in two weeks. Bill James said the same thing also in the past - batting orders are not that important. Of course, forums love to debate the importance of batting orders but in reality they aren't that important.

We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference. Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season. Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial.

Managers are not likely to go with what is considered an optimal line up any time in the near future. They would be crucified by the press, the fans, and by the players if they went with an optimal lineup, because optimal lineups go against conventional thinking. So realistically, we are talking about 5 runs difference at most over the season in making these line up changes.

It is more important to split up lefties, and probably more important for the line up to have some consistency and comfort.

Once again Kimmi proves that she is the Eric Severeid of the forum.She comes here sporadically and says more in three paragraphs than the rest of the forum does in two weeks. Bill James said the same thing also in the past - batting orders are not that important. Of course, forums love to debate the importance of batting orders but in reality they aren't that important.

I have a mother....the only mother in my middle class neighborhood that worked when I grew up. I have four sisters, all of whom would smack me in the head if I patronised them by holding a door open for them BECAUSE they were female......my {extremely polite, IMHO} children have been taught to give no EXTRA respect to the elderly, the female, the pregnant, the handicapped, or the Stiffian.....you either behave well and give respect to all, or you don't....everyone starts with equal, maximum respect and can only lose it through bad behaviour. Being old or pregnant doesn't give you a free pass to be mean.

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Kimmi should be encouraged to be part of the smart, analytical geek community rather than be subjected to smarmy "is she hot" bullsh1t.

On the other hand, every time I see Notin's avatar I can't help but think Moe is looking at me.....

I have a mother....the only mother in my middle class neighborhood that worked when I grew up. I have four sisters, all of whom would smack me in the head if I patronised them by holding a door open for them BECAUSE they were female......my {extremely polite, IMHO} children have been taught to give no EXTRA respect to the elderly, the female, the pregnant, the handicapped, or the Stiffian.....you either behave well and give respect to all, or you don't....everyone starts with equal, maximum respect and can only lose it through bad behaviour. Being old or pregnant doesn't give you a free pass to be mean.

--------------------------------

Kimmi should be encouraged to be part of the smart, analytical geek community rather than be subjected to smarmy "is she hot" bullsh1t.

On the other hand, every time I see Notin's avatar I can't help but think Moe is looking at me.....

;-)

Sorry, I don't believe intelligent and attractive have to be mutually exclusive.

If Kimmi has a problem with what I said and expresses it, I'll gladly apologize.

If not, lighten up, Francis.

FTR Kimmi doesn't have to be "encouraged" to be part of the "smart, analytical geek community".

Moonslav has to become a pessimist, well at least for awhile that is. After all his honesty. sincerity, knowledge, attention to detail, hard work at research, and inventing Softlaw as a foil became boring to most. The Hatfields vs. the McCoys stage show ran its course. It won't play in Peoria any more. He needs a new act and Burrito / Enchilada is counting on it.

I have a mother....the only mother in my middle class neighborhood that worked when I grew up. I have four sisters, all of whom would smack me in the head if I patronised them by holding a door open for them BECAUSE they were female......my {extremely polite, IMHO} children have been taught to give no EXTRA respect to the elderly, the female, the pregnant, the handicapped, or the Stiffian.....you either behave well and give respect to all, or you don't....everyone starts with equal, maximum respect and can only lose it through bad behaviour. Being old or pregnant doesn't give you a free pass to be mean.

--------------------------------

Kimmi should be encouraged to be part of the smart, analytical geek community rather than be subjected to smarmy "is she hot" bullsh1t.

On the other hand, every time I see Notin's avatar I can't help but think Moe is looking at me.....

;-)

Sorry, I don't believe intelligent and attractive have to be mutually exclusive.

If Kimmi has a problem with what I said and expresses it, I'll gladly apologize.

If not, lighten up, Francis.

FTR Kimmi doesn't have to be "encouraged" to be part of the "smart, analytical geek community".

I have a mother....the only mother in my middle class neighborhood that worked when I grew up. I have four sisters, all of whom would smack me in the head if I patronised them by holding a door open for them BECAUSE they were female......my {extremely polite, IMHO} children have been taught to give no EXTRA respect to the elderly, the female, the pregnant, the handicapped, or the Stiffian.....you either behave well and give respect to all, or you don't....everyone starts with equal, maximum respect and can only lose it through bad behaviour. Being old or pregnant doesn't give you a free pass to be mean.

--------------------------------

Kimmi should be encouraged to be part of the smart, analytical geek community rather than be subjected to smarmy "is she hot" bullsh1t.

On the other hand, every time I see Notin's avatar I can't help but think Moe is looking at me.....

;-)

Sorry, I don't believe intelligent and attractive have to be mutually exclusive.

If Kimmi has a problem with what I said and expresses it, I'll gladly apologize.

If not, lighten up, Francis.

FTR Kimmi doesn't have to be "encouraged" to be part of the "smart, analytical geek community".

We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference. Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

That's a mind-blower. So even if you make out your lineup upside-down, with the worst hitters at the top and best hitters at the bottom it won't make much difference? I would think it would make a difference simply because the best hitters would get fewer at-bats over the season.

We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference. Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

But, if even the best hitters make an out over 60% of the time, how impoert are those extra at bats?

That's a mind-blower. So even if you make out your lineup upside-down, with the worst hitters at the top and best hitters at the bottom it won't make much difference? I would think it would make a difference simply because the best hitters would get fewer at-bats over the season.

If even the best hitters fail over 60% of the time, how important are those extra at-bats?

I understand that team want to optimize their chances by giving their best hitters the most at bats, but the difference seems negligible.

The extra at-bats are probably more important to individual stats, than to the team's overall success.

Moonslav has to become a pessimist, well at least for awhile that is. After all his honesty. sincerity, knowledge, attention to detail, hard work at research, and inventing Softlaw as a foil became boring to most. The Hatfields vs. the McCoys stage show ran its course. It won't play in Peoria any more. He needs a new act and Burrito / Enchilada is counting on it.

Funny, I see a baseball thread with nothing but baseball discussion until you came along and did your best to derail it. You accuse everyone else of putting on an act, but you are the biggest troll and pretender here.

Moonslav has to become a pessimist, well at least for awhile that is. After all his honesty. sincerity, knowledge, attention to detail, hard work at research, and inventing Softlaw as a foil became boring to most. The Hatfields vs. the McCoys stage show ran its course. It won't play in Peoria any more. He needs a new act and Burrito / Enchilada is counting on it.

Funny, I see a baseball thread with nothing but baseball discussion until you came along and did your best to derail it. You accuse everyone else of putting on an act, but you are the biggest troll and pretender here.

Moonslav has to become a pessimist, well at least for awhile that is. After all his honesty. sincerity, knowledge, attention to detail, hard work at research, and inventing Softlaw as a foil became boring to most. The Hatfields vs. the McCoys stage show ran its course. It won't play in Peoria any more. He needs a new act and Burrito / Enchilada is counting on it.

Funny, I see a baseball thread with nothing but baseball discussion until you came along and did your best to derail it. You accuse everyone else of putting on an act, but you are the biggest troll and pretender here.

The worst part of it is that he has deluded himself into thinking he is doing this board some good.

If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 season, it would make an immense difference between him hitting 1st or 9th.

The difference between 3rd and 6th was 50 PAs.

However, it is not all about PAs. It is about coming up with runners on base or not, as well as other factors like baserunning skills, hitting for contact and moving runners over, etc...

The Tigers had one of the most set line-ups in 2012. here's how many PAs these hitters got with men on base (most at their normal batting slots listed here):

3) Cabrera 333

4) Fielder 340

5) Young 288

7) Perralta 265

Like I said, it's makes a difference with individual stats, but how did it affect the team's run totals or W/L record?

The accumulation of better individual stats from the 1-8 slots have to make a difference in runs scored, and hence wins.

The question is, is it a big enough diference to warrant the debate that lineups generate.

From Kimmi's post:

"The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season. Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial."

The question is, is it a big enough diference to warrant the debate that lineups generate.

From Kimmi's post:

"The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season. Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial."

OK, I understand this a little better now. Kimmi's statement is only about the difference between a 'traditional' batting order and an optimal batting order. It doesn't mean the difference between the best possible order and the worst possible order.

Anyway, I agree with moon that Victorino should be hitting 2nd against LH starters and probably 7th or 8th against RH starters. And I don't think he would have a problem with that if Farrell talks to him about it at the outset of the year.

The question is, is it a big enough diference to warrant the debate that lineups generate.

From Kimmi's post:

"The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season. Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial."

OK, I understand this a little better now. Kimmi's statement is only about the difference between a 'traditional' batting order and an optimal batting order. It doesn't mean the difference between the best possible order and the worst possible order.

Correct. I don't think anyone would advocate batting Pedey and Ortiz 7 and 8, to start off the season.