Tall orders: where do the ruckmen come from?

When Brodie Grundy slipped to pick 18 in the AFL national draft two years ago not many recruiters could believe he had been left waiting that long, even those who had overlooked him. But many had an admission to make: they find it really hard to justify using their first pick on a ruckman, no matter who he is or what he has shown.

"Unless they're absolutely amazing, absolutely exceptional, you can't do it," said one. "They just take too long to come on. And you can find them in other places. Even if they turn into stars, it could be years until they get there."

The numbers reveal their hesitancy. There are 61 ruckmen on the 18 AFL lists, and another 14 players who have pinch-hit in there but been preferred in the forward line. Of those 75 players, just 17 were chosen as first-round draftees, nine in the top 10 and just three in the first four. That's including five pinch-hitters.

Another 32 were much cheaper buys, joining their clubs via the rookie draft or as alternative talent, zone or scholarship players from NSW or other countries. Of those in their club's top two rucks, 14 started out at another club before being traded or delisted to their current home.

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The drafting of ruckmen raises many questions for recruiters - more than any other player type. How high you should pick them is one, how long you can keep them on your list before making a decision on whether they will cut it or not another.

How many can you carry at one time, given those not in the senior team must develop in the same state league side? Is it best to wait until your team is in contention, then trade for one who can help you make the last step? If so, how much do you give up for the one you want?

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Everyone does things differently. Collingwood drafted Grundy, but had previously traded Darren Jolly into its premiership-bound side. Geelong drafted Shane Mumford as a rookie and got a reasonable pick (used on Mitch Duncan) for him from Sydney. The Swans gave Mumford a huge pay rise, but got a premiership player. Carlton, Essendon and Richmond have also turned former rookies into decent national draft picks.

Agreed by almost everyone is that ruckmen need time, that you're making a four or five-year decision, at least, when you draft one on to your list. Port Adelaide drafted Matthew Lobbe at pick 16 in 2007, and waited a long, long time for him to blossom. Hawthorn chose Luke Lowden as a skinny 17-year-old late in the 2008 draft, he's now in his sixth season and has been waiting longer than anyone to play a first game.

Agreed also is that they are getting bigger, and harder to find. One club followed every ruckman at every TAC Cup and state league club last year, looking for one. Half the clubs were with the AFL in Los Angeles last week, watching the US Combine.

Interestingly, while clubs have been reluctant to use first-round picks on rucks, most of them have either succeeded or survived a long while. Looking through the last 15 drafts just a handful of first-round ruckmen - John Meesen, Laurence Angwin, Adam Pattison, Jason Laycock, James Sellar, Barry Brooks - didn't do what was foreseen for them, for varied reasons. Another thing to note is that three of the highest-picked - Matthew Kreuzer and Nic Naitanui most recently, Matthew Leuenberger for much of his career - have been held back by injury.

The question of how many you can carry is more easily answered. While Gold Coast and the Giants' expanded lists have allowed them to have a look at more than other clubs - the Suns started with five, and got a first-round pick trading Tom Hickey to St Kilda - most clubs have three ruckmen, maybe four, and perhaps one or two other players who can jump in and help out.

Ideally? "In a perfect world you find them later in the draft, develop them the way you want to develop them and get the reward," said one list manager. "That's better than overpaying for one, and better than using a really good pick on one. But they're hard to find, they're really hard to find."