Thursday, February 03, 2011

Padres vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

On the heels of the Giants/Dodgers and Rockies/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups that didn't look all that good for the Dodgers, I present to you the Padres/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups. This time the good guys come out on top. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).

Padres Starting Lineup

Dodgers Starting Lineup

Padres vs LHP

Padres vs RHP

&nbsp

Dodgers vs LHP

Dodgers vs RHP

Order

Pos

Name

Pos

Name

&nbsp

Pos

Name

Pos

Name

1

SS

J.Bartlett

SS

J.Bartlett

&nbsp

SS

R.Furcal

SS

R.Furcal

2

2B

O.Hudson

2B

O.Hudson

&nbsp

CF

M.Kemp

CF

M.Kemp

3

3B

C.Headley

3B

C.Headley

&nbsp

RF

A.Ethier

RF

A.Ethier

4

RF

R.Ludwick

RF

R.Ludwick

&nbsp

3B

C.Blake

1B

J.Loney

5

1B

J.Cantu

1B

B.Hawpe

&nbsp

2B

J.Uribe

3B

C.Blake

6

LF

C.Denorfia

LF

W.Venable

&nbsp

LF

M.Thames

2B

J.Uribe

7

CF

C.Maybin

CF

C.Maybin

&nbsp

1B

J.Loney

LF

J.Gibbons

8

C

G.Zaun

C

N.Hundley

&nbsp

C

R.Barajas

C

R.Barajas

Padres Rotation

Dodgers Rotation

#1

Mat Latos

#1

Clayton Kershaw

#2

Clayton Richard

#2

Chad Billingsley

#3

Wade LeBlanc

#3

Hiroki Kuroda

#4

Aaron Harang

#4

Ted Lilly

#5

Tim Stauffer

#5

Jon Garland

Simulation Results

Away Starter

Home Starter

Favorite

Win Prob

Mat Latos

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

55.54%

Clayton Kershaw

Mat Latos

Padres

53.87%

Mat Latos

Chad Billingsley

Dodgers

53.87%

Chad Billingsley

Mat Latos

Padres

56.37%

Mat Latos

Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers

52.50%

Hiroki Kuroda

Mat Latos

Padres

58.18%

Mat Latos

Ted Lilly

Padres

52.84%

Ted Lilly

Mat Latos

Padres

61.37%

Mat Latos

Jon Garland

Padres

55.76%

Jon Garland

Mat Latos

Padres

65.06%

Clayton Richard

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

60.58%

Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Richard

Padres

50.86%

Clayton Richard

Chad Billingsley

Dodgers

58.18%

Chad Billingsley

Clayton Richard

Padres

53.01%

Clayton Richard

Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers

54.62%

Hiroki Kuroda

Clayton Richard

Padres

53.81%

Clayton Richard

Ted Lilly

Dodgers

51.41%

Ted Lilly

Clayton Richard

Padres

56.19%

Clayton Richard

Jon Garland

Padres

52.18%

Jon Garland

Clayton Richard

Padres

61.25%

Wade LeBlanc

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

67.23%

Clayton Kershaw

Wade LeBlanc

Dodgers

56.64%

Wade LeBlanc

Chad Billingsley

Dodgers

64.88%

Chad Billingsley

Wade LeBlanc

Dodgers

54.41%

Wade LeBlanc

Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers

62.80%

Hiroki Kuroda

Wade LeBlanc

Dodgers

52.81%

Wade LeBlanc

Ted Lilly

Dodgers

58.72%

Ted Lilly

Wade LeBlanc

Dodgers

50.17%

Wade LeBlanc

Jon Garland

Dodgers

55.13%

Jon Garland

Wade LeBlanc

Padres

54.33%

Aaron Harang

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

67.06%

Clayton Kershaw

Aaron Harang

Dodgers

55.69%

Aaron Harang

Chad Billingsley

Dodgers

64.89%

Chad Billingsley

Aaron Harang

Dodgers

53.94%

Aaron Harang

Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers

61.68%

Hiroki Kuroda

Aaron Harang

Dodgers

53.26%

Aaron Harang

Ted Lilly

Dodgers

58.50%

Ted Lilly

Aaron Harang

Dodgers

50.36%

Aaron Harang

Jon Garland

Dodgers

55.95%

Jon Garland

Aaron Harang

Padres

55.36%

Tim Stauffer

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

60.32%

Clayton Kershaw

Tim Stauffer

Dodgers

50.38%

Tim Stauffer

Chad Billingsley

Dodgers

59.55%

Chad Billingsley

Tim Stauffer

Padres

52.37%

Tim Stauffer

Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers

57.23%

Hiroki Kuroda

Tim Stauffer

Padres

52.45%

Tim Stauffer

Ted Lilly

Dodgers

51.89%

Ted Lilly

Tim Stauffer

Padres

55.39%

Tim Stauffer

Jon Garland

Padres

51.32%

Jon Garland

Tim Stauffer

Padres

60.23%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 51.96%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 84.17 games and the Padres would win 77.83. The simulator is showing the Dodgers as the stronger of the two teams, but it is fairly close.