Peter Turchin, a professor at the University of Connecticut’s department of ecology and evolutionary biology, warns in a Phys.Org article published this week that society could risk implosion within the decade because of increasing social unrest.

“We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020s,” the cultural evolution researcher writes.

“This is a science-based forecast, not a ‘prophecy. It’s based on solid social science.”

Turchin is a leader in cliodynamics, an interdisciplinary field of study that sees historical events such as the collapse of empires as following predictable mathematical models based on historical data.

The professor has tracked 40 factors in society that hit some kind of turning point in the 1970s. They include such aspects as wealth inequality, stagnating well-being, growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction.

This seems Azo, very reminiscent of the Limits to Growth study which also used different variables and ran them through computer modeling. They tried to forecast different scenarios given different criteria of economic growth, population growth, waste accumulation and resource depletion. So your link to this mathematical approach is similar in that it tries to distinguish different stresses on society and at what level collapse could occur. In fidelity to this thread, it bears pointing out that we do appear to be reaching critical threshold limits on various fronts. Most likely a combination of factors will finally create havoc in our current modern industrial world wide civilization

Accumulation of financial capital into less productive elites is a drag on long term growth.

That said the real risks are the black and gray swans. Things like trade wars or real wars breaking out of the increasingly fractious and chauvinistic international environment.

Once upon a time people talked of the "convergent catastrophes". The data continues to accumulate on everything from the demographic time bomb ticking under the western pensions systems to the evisceration on western "middle classes" by low paid out sources and automation.

We might get through it all intact and with better material wealth, we might not. The just keep rising with every spin of the wheel.

Lucky for us all that pesky peak oil thingamy was proven to be all a load of hot air. Well by a "load of hot air" I mean over sold and predicted too early by the "enthusiasts". Data says shes a coming.

Good post EC and welcome to the forums. Especially this "Once upon a time people talked of the "convergent catastrophes". The data continues to accumulate on everything from the demographic time bomb ticking under the western pensions systems to the evisceration on western "middle classes" by low paid out sources and automation. " Absolutely, but even though this thread is about economics, I think we are all quite aware unlike Economists that the Economy is a subset of the Environment. Well, we all surely know that the Environment is in bad shape. Ecosystems have been degraded and are not now so abundant and giving like the Ocean for example. We also know the toll this huge human population is taking on finite resources. Water comes to mind. So we are depleting non renewable resources at a alarming rate and taxing renewable ones beyond regeneration capacity, soil comes to mind So given now the mismatch between the huge population and scarcity of resources that is bound to affect all economic matters given the basic law of supply and demand. So, that with the combination of overinflated asset prices, less net energy , we can expect serious deflation. On top of that with so much liquidity we can also expect inflation to rear its head. In fact you can say we already have it via debt and an oversupply of currency. So, at some point our currencies will not be worth much at all. That is when we enter into the dreaded Stagflation, a slowing of the economy characterized by deflated asset prices and less economic activity and a currency that is worth alot less characterized as a form of inflation with the consequent raising of prices of some commodities. And a violent lurching from one end of the spectrum to the other.

Or is it a sign that competition from Russia, China and India are producing more equipment locally and don't need to buy as much American equipment?

II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/107 ... al-bubblesBasically, how we forestalled economic catastrophe so far. It seems that that the big money players are all in on an intentional or unintentional collusion to pretend everything is okay. At some point this entire fabricated bubble will stray too far from reality and a run for the exists stampede will occur or the worsening fundamentals ie. the oil situation or passing a debt threshold will simply collapse this whole house of cards ponzi scheme.

Those analysis are interesting, but without some definite time frame they don't help much.

What is also critical is understanding HOW things will unravel.

I've come to believe that the disruption of food shipments will be critical. The USA/Canada is in a better than average place to deal with that. But unless handled quickly there will short term shortages. That could easily cause the cities to unhinge into civil chaos.

Elsewhere the situation will likely be much worse. We will likely have to assist Europe. There will be cries for assistance everywhere. There are few net food exporters and they will have little chance of recouping their costs.

Newfie, I am seeing more and more pressure on economic systems around the world. The finance sector is completely dysfunctional and corrupt with little bearing on the productive Economy. Given that trade relies on finance and certain transparency, I am seeing much aversion to and mistrust of globalization now and specifically of the finance system. Combined with the pressures of flailing oil industries and unmanageable debt, I see critical systems failure of the Global Industrial System within two years at best. That includes food supplies

It is foolish to attempt to generate economic models when human behavior is involved. One can never model human behavior. In any system where human behavior plays a part, there can never be a forecast that will provide any useful warning of an event, even when that "event" is the years-long decline of mechanized agriculture.

For example, the USA is a net food exporter. With a dwindling oil supply, the food produced will decline over time. Are Americans likely to panic when food exports are simply reduced? Will they panic when food exports equal imports, and the country is at the break-even point? Will they panic when disadvantaged US citizens begin to starve? Will they panic when the major cities rapidly become uninhabitable and one can only eat in the countryside adjacent to food production?

Certainly, one or more of these scenarios must apply. Who knows which one(s) and when? Nobody at all, because one variable is human behavior which cannot be modelled.

The answer is simple. Before any kind of panic, you need to either be producing your own food, or a member of a food co-op which is collectively feeding it's members. But NOBODY, nobody at all, can give you a good believable deadline before this must have happened. Which means you must have acted before the panic ensues. Or your kids or grandkids must have acted before it happens to them, as we might be talking about some ongoing crisis (the "Long Emergency" for devotees of Kunstler) that happens to them, and never to us.

KaiserJeep wrote: One can never model human behavior. In any system where human behavior plays a part, there can never be a forecast that will provide any useful warning of an event, even when that "event" is the years-long decline of mechanized agriculture.

The trigger points may not be predictable but trends are useful indicators. And we can see some unfolding.

Trust in all major institutions down. Trust in public sector down. Trust in private sector down. Collusion among those in power to preserve their privilege, looking out for their own interests and not their constituents. There are perception being embraced more and more by the masses. These are trends which cause a society to no longer believe, trust or respect the macro institutions that used to define the common good. This breeds a cynicism, it breeds a desire to no longer tow the line, to no longer contribute to the common good whatever that means. It used to mean something say 40 years ago when citizens felt a certain civic duty. Today this is close to dead. The trend of polarized tribal binary fighting, tearing apart the fabric that holds a society together, no more respecting differences. IT's either black or white, grey is no longer in fashion. Kind of like an evangelical charismatic christian raising their child and saying, you are either with christ or satan, there are no other choices.

Where do these trends lead a culture?

Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Apeblog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/website: http://www.mounttotumas.com

Another thing to look at, in terms of catalysts, is the attitude of the US toward Russia. A little while ago I posted something about this on some other thread and it got me to thinking about how the current situation under Trump may indicate things are changing. When the Caspian Sea didn't pan out as the place the world would be able to extract oil from at a rate that would ensure oil supply as was throughout the 21st Century that changed things. It especially changed things regarding how the West thought about Russia. It became important that Russia welcome free market oil trade along the lines that the West understood it, no more using natural gas supplies to Europe to bully. In addition to knocking Iran, Iraq and various other important oil states about, Russia was going to need addressing. Ok, so the West got into it with Russia over the Ukraine. There has been a lot of terrorism in Russia's southern territory. Russia invaded Georgia a while back, and carved off a piece of it. Things have happened. Currently they seem to be happening over Syria. They are also happening politically, as Trump seems amenable to rapprochement with Russia. Does this signal a new attitude concerning the very idea of peak oil that could lead to collapse if either of two things happen; the policy reverses too suddenly, or peak oil, being so officially discredited, now sneaks up on us rather than comes through the front door?