Santa Anita Picks & Analysis — Sunday, October 22, 2017

This Sunday at Santa Anita features a nine-race card, headlined by the Anoakia Stakes. As usual, the first race is scheduled for 12:30 PM PDT, with the featured race scheduled as the third on the card.

We’ve got Spencer Luginbuhl (@handi_capper) providing thoughts for all the action. Spencer’s been our Southern Californian handicapper for a while now, and we thank Spencer for his picks. Be sure to give him a follow on twitter!

Take it away, Spencer!

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Special thanks to John for letting me continue my dream of giving my picks as a public handicapper

Use my top 2 picks in multi-race wagers bottom picks are used in filling out tris and exactas vertical wagers.

Race 1

5-8-1-3

#5 Waldorf: This son of Wilburn doesn’t have the best pedigree but won nicely two back closing from dead last and winning by open lengths. He has improved every race in the Beyer department and split the field last time out at this level.

Trainer Mark Glatt is 22% turning back horses off small layoffs.

#8 Awesome Heights: Dropped and popped at an excellent price to break his maiden in his lastest race. The very strong turf jockey Corey Nakatani stays in the irons as he is 7-18 so far on the turf this meet. It’s always a positive to take horses with wins at this specialty distance and course. Trainer Neil Drysdale, not the best when bringing horses right back second off a layoff after breaking there maiden.

#1 Irish Goodbye: Here is another that has a win on this course. I do not like the last two fields this horse raced against as Run Like Rhett only broke his maiden for 20K and had been hitting the board as this one finished dead last in his latest outing at this level. He has good back races at higher level races. Trainer Keith Desormeaux, not the best with turnbacks as he is 0-6 the last five years.

Race 2

1-2-5

#1 Sky Mesa: Following the same form cycle of last year when he won off the long layoff. Trainer Peter Miller is outstanding with this type of move coming off a long layoff with a win coming before the long layoff he is 43%!!!!!

#2 Hot Sean: This colt seemed to be one of Baffert’s Derby hopefuls, and with the likely progression from two to three I’m expecting this son of Flatter to run a low 90 Beyer. This progress puts him right in the mix and even though its Baffert you might get an excellent price that can make your day.

#5 Edwards Going Left: The Sadler barn is cold so far at the meet which usually can help prices if willing to give horses second chances. Ran in a G1 last time out and was over his head the allowance win two back was excellent, and the bullet in his latest work should have him on his toes.

Race 3

4-5

#4 Just a Smidge: This two-year-old race will run this Baffert runner as they thought well enough to try G1 company over the last two races. A move I don’t see many trainers do well with is the blinkers off, and Baffert is 33% with the move. I believe there will be some pace to run into and this runner fits the stalk and pounce trip style perfectly.

#5 Steph Being Steph: Here is another stalker type runner that can be rated and come with one run. She comes out of a key race in her last where the runner-up and third place finishers came back to win. Trainer Brian Koriner does well with two-year-olds off a small layoff hitting at a 31% clip with 50% ITM and over a 2$ R.O.I. He is also 5 of 6 ITM so far at the meet without a win, so a good board horse to help your exotics.

Race 4

3-1-7-4

#3 Hootie: Nice effort last time out for the level. One of only two horses to win at this one-mile distance doesn’t need to improve much to challenge the top two horses who I feel do have some negatives against them. The winner of the last race came right back to run second in a nongraded stake race.

#1 Ritzy A.P.: This son of English Channel broke his maiden at this distance although there was some cut in the ground that day. I feel he may have leveled off in the low 80’s for his Beyer’s and don’t think he is likely to improve but isn’t facing much today. Nice to see Prat stay in the irons after just missing up less than a length in his latest start.

#7 Kencumin: This morning line favorite is going for his third start in America. He has run the same Beyer in back to back races (83), and Trainer Peter Eurton is not the best when going second off the bench in turf routes 9%. Another negative is he broke his maiden on synthetic not grass.

Race 5

3-2-6-8

Spread Race use all 4 in multi race wagers

#3 Lucky Hand: One of two runners in for Jorge Gutierrez. her first run was a pretty lousy race and second off the layoff is not Gutierrez forte hoping that the two bullet works have this filly on her toes.

#2 In Heat: The Sire Unusual Heat does well on the grass which is why this filly debut there she missed the start which to me makes that race a toss for me and now she switches to dirt. Trainer Eric Kruljac is 0-3 when changing surfaces with second-time starters.

#6 Hailey Rachele: the M.L favorite for this weak MSW field has been running ok with back to back thirds and 58 Beyers. a big negative for me is the 1-36 jockey and 1-20 trainer I just don’t like taking short prices on such cold connections.

Race 6

5-9-2-6

#5 Arrowsphere: 4-4 ITM on this Santa Anita turf course. Drops in for the lowest price ever and when she ran for 75K, she ran second. She also has excellent back numbers three and four back. Trainer Peter Eurton is 24% with a 2 dollar plus R.O.I. off this type of layoff with turf routers.

#9 Miz Tianjin: Another MSW to maiden claimer dropper. This filly has only two starts under her belt, so there is room for Improvement. Trainer Eric Kruljac, not the best with this type of layoff but the three bullet workouts tell me she might be ready for another move forward.

#2 Fast Bid: This daughter of Fast Company has been running consistent mid 60 Beyers, so this is my quintessential horse to hit the board. The excellent price of 5-1 helps make that choice the one big negative is she is 0-3 at Santa Anita unable to hit the board hope that helps my price.

Race 7

2-1-7

#2 Los Borrachos: This son of Pulpit is in razor-sharp form with back to back wins and stays at the same level as the last win after the claim by Mullins. He starts by giving the new bug boy a shot and also had a two-week break in training. If he can run back to his last two Beyers 93-91, he will be super tough to beat.

#1 Papa Turf: He ran well for 20K and now moves up the claiming ladder. Trainer Keith Desormeaux isn’t the best when it comes to winning back to back. Looking for this one to hit the board.

#7 Logan’s Moon: Hasn’t missed the board in his last five starts. The workout pattern since the layoff has been excellent. He ran a good third against our top choice in his latest race.

Race 8

2-8-7-3

#2 Six Point Rack: Nice win for 50K last time out hasn’t done too well in the allowance ranks but if he can build off that nice win last time out. Nice to see Prat stay on and trainer Mike Puype is 23% of these type of layoffs with last out turf winners.

#8 The Lovely Anzi: This Gelding seems to be on the improve finally breaking his maiden last time out with a significant Beyer number. The change that helped him is the barn switch to Richard Baltas, and I’m hoping he can keep on improving this son of Anziyn Royalty.

#7 The Big Train: He has been running very nice races in his last two turf races and now draws top turf jock Corey Nakatani which to me is a big plus. He needs to get over his seconditis with 4 seconds and only one win which is why for me he is a play underneath.

Race 9

10-13-1

#10 Close to Midnight: This son of Midnight Lute has been facing the much tougher company, but the significant drop in class and addition of blinkers might be able to wake this one up at a big price.

#13 Californium: Another dropper but whats interesting is only the one start on the dirt so I’m hoping maybe the switch back to a different surface can get an improved effort out of this three-year-old gelding.

#1 Taste’s Legends: Strictly a use underneath has improving Beyers, and out of the rest of the horses have already run for 20K I do like the three-furlong work on The 16th of October.

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