NL Notes: Dodgers, Kemp, Giants, Bumgarner, Braves, Marlins

The Dodgers’ best chance of moving Matt Kemp may be to package the veteran outfielder (and the $43MM remaining on his contract) along with some good minor league talent to a team with payroll space that is willing to “buy a prospect,” Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. Such moves are becoming increasingly common around baseball, such as the Padres’ acquisition of Chase Headley and Bryan Mitchell from the Yankees earlier this offseason. The Dodgers have a deep enough farm system that they might not necessarily have to offer one of their top-tier prospects to unload Kemp; Sullivan cites righty Wilmer Font as the type of MLB-ready minor leaguer that could step right into the rotation of a rebuilding team. Some creativity may be required to work out a Kemp trade, though the five-player, luxury tax-bending deal with the Braves that brought Kemp back to L.A. was itself pretty unique. If it costs the Dodgers a star prospect to get Kemp off the books, it might be worth it in the long run if the trade frees up enough money for the Dodgers to re-sign Yu Darvish.

Some more from around the National League…

Should the Giants sign Madison Bumgarner to an extension? The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (subscription required) looks at the factors that the team will face in making that decision, such as other future salary commitments, whether the Giants will remain competitive in the coming years, and whether they’ll be wary about another long-term deal for a pitcher going into his 30s when other such recent contracts (i.e. Barry Zito, Matt Cain) didn’t work out. San Francisco isn’t in any immediate rush to decide on the matter, however, as Bumgarner is controlled through 2019 via a $12MM club option. This gives the Giants time to determine if they can extend their window of contention or perhaps if Bumgarner himself is still in his old form after his injury-marred 2017 campaign.

The Braves’ lineup has lost a lot of pop with the departures of Kemp, Matt Adams, and Brandon Phillips, and the team’s primary hope is that its young players emerge as power threats, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Continued development from Ozzie Albies, Rio Ruiz, and Johan Camargo would be a boon for the team, and big things are expected from star prospect Ronald Acuna. There’s also still the potential for another addition, GM Alex Anthopoulos said: “We’ve talked about the loss of power and how to make up for it. I don’t have an answer today. Normally you’d say ’Wow, it’s late January, how do you not have an answer?’ But there’s a lot of free agents still out there and there’s a lot of bodies.”

The Marlins’ fire sale is the largest ever, The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh writes, as only one team in baseball history has traded more WAR in a single offseason than Miami has this winter. That team (the 1899 Louisville Colonels) technically shouldn’t count given the unusual circumstances — Colonels owner Barney Dreyfuss bought a share of the Pirates and then sold much of Louisville’s top talent to Pittsburgh. Lindbergh’s piece chronicles the top 20 biggest talent purges from one season to the next, with some other recent teams (the 2014 Braves, 2014 A’s, and 2012 Marlins) also appearing on the list.

Kemp has value as a DH to an AL team in need of some pop and potentially an injury fill in for a corner OF spot. They would still need to knock it down to around $10M/year though. Doing that would get them down to around $170M+. They could even potentially get a team to eat the whole contract if LA gave up a higher grade prospect.

Teams don’t like wasting spots on the only guys unless they can upgrade the offense more than marginally at best. The spot is used now to rest players for some teams. Think they need to Shell out the prospect.

I wouldn’t mind the Braves adding a guy like Neil Walker. He has a little bit of pop and can play 3rd base and would be a perfect platoon guy with camargo. Wouldn’t hurt to have a veteran hitter like that on a young team.

ATL received Akeel Morris, Rob Whalen and John Gant in those 2 KJ trades. Morris posted really nice RP numbers at the minors and a very small sample size with ATL (9K in 7.1 IP in ’17) — and looks to be a promising RP. Whalen was a trade piece to SEA (Alex Jackson), Gant to STL (Jaime Garcia) — so those KJ trades helped.

But you shouldn’t have to try them exclusively. I think the ideal position player set up for a rebuilding team is 3 older (6+ years experience) vets, 3 younger (2-5 years experience) vets, and 2 rookies for starters, at least at the start of a season. Anything younger than that, you risk turning your fans off with the resemblance of a minor league roster. Any older shows you needed to work on your rebuild a little more.

Everyone wants the draft compensation and teams don’t want to give up draft compensation. Glad to see teams reset the market with the freeze. The repeat tax penalties cost a lot if you don’t win a championship.

A year ago was still the honeymoon phase and he was playing like a man possessed at times, including decent, but still below-avg OF. Combine that with him saying all the right things in the media, and Braves fans thought we’d actually get something for him like we have with other projects before. Now, the difference is that he was paid a hefty sum, but his play also predictably fell off back down. To illustrate he was worth a 1.2 oWAR in 56 games in 2016, while a 0.4 oWAR in 115 games in 2017. His defense went from a -1.5 in 56 games in 2016 to -2.2 in 115 in 2017. He didn’t stay in the condition he said he was going to be in, and the talk about ATL being his childhood team and how he’d be a new player was all talk. No, I didn’t think we’d ever get something decent for him, but I could see how many average ATL fans bought in.

Some value, just not a lot. The surgery on his shoulder wasn’t routine and does not have a predictable outcome. He is set to start a throwing program soon but not off a mound at least through spring training. He has basically become a lottery ticket instead of a top prospect.

No way can you discount him that much. He’s no longer a sure thing but still above average. Also, the dodgers aren’t gonna trade him when his value is this low, his upside makes it worth him being held onto.

More prospects fail to hit expectations then those who reach or succeed them. Otherwise every game would be an all star game. Urias didn’t just have a bad year that your like ok he can fix his mechanics as above mentioned shoulder surgery to his extend can not determine a predictable outcome, and he hasn’t even started throwing yet and pitchers and catchers are due within the month. His value is straight huge risk huge reward. His talent is no longer the main factor as much as his health.

Not sure how much you think I am discounting him, but the reality is his return to the game is highly uncertain. The surgery he required isn’t like TJ. It has ended careers at least as often as it was successful. The somewhat encouraging news from when the surgery was performed was that the damage to his shoulder was less than feared. So that gives him a fighting chance, at least. But I agree, no reason for the Dodgers to trade him. He may be a lottery ticket but for better or worse, he’s their lottery ticket.

Because Kemp’s trade value is so far underwater that that is the only way they will be able to move him! You said last May that the Braves wouldn’t trade him unless they got actual prospect in return and look what happened! What do you have to say for yourself?

Package kemp with grandal, toles and a mid level prospect for Lowrie, Joyce and Hendriks. A’s take on salary but get a catcher who they need as well as a controllable outfielder and prospect and the dodgers get toles replacement a reliever who can go multiple innings with good underlying stats and Lowrie

Made his first MLB starts when he was 19 and blew out his shoulder when he was 20, and already you know he lacks commitment and drive? Wow I didn’t know you could buy a crystal ball at Harbor Freight. Which aisle?

Damn, right I do. You guys need to sign Darvish and I’m assuming the only way you get him is by dumping Kemp. You have to also remember this is Kershaws opt out year, if you guys fail to win now, he’ll be sporting a yankee cap in no time.

Why exactly would the Dodgers want a replacement for Toles when they’re overloaded with established MLB OF’ers and an MLB ready player in Verdugo? Or why would they want Lowrie when they have Forsythe, CT3, and Kike who can all play 2B? Friedman and Co. like pitching depth.

Lol at dodger fans who thought theyd get rid of kemp and his contract without offering a legit prospect or two.

Nobody is taking the money owed to kemp unless the dodgers package talent to offset the cost of acquiring kemp.

A team like the orioles, who could DH kemp, would have interest in pitching and OF

Dodgers could offer verdugo outright for the orioles to take the entire contract given their abundance of OF. Dodger fans may not like that deal, but if im tbe Orioles its verdugo or bust to take kemps contract.

stache1968
January 28, 2018
When the Dodgers inquire about a possible trade all the teams ask for their top prospects then end up giving away the player the Dodgers ask about for nothing…hmmm And give up Buehler?! Lol! Kemp and a couple of #20 somethings or #30 somethings prospects yeah. Especially to an AL team in need of a DH

It’s there. Thats how i was able to copy and paste the comment. Look for my comment and its not too far behind. Have to scroll a bit.

I’d read that already. Maybe you totally know what he meant by “a couple of #20 somethings or #30 somethings prospects,” but I can’t assume that I know. You have to search far and wide and then make assumptions just to come up a very thin justification for your statement. You should know the vast majority of the discussion was about and continues to be about what combination of cash and prospects or which bad contract swap would be required for the Dodgers to unload Kemp.

but there’s still no way they give up one of their top five prospects just to get rid of Kemp salary I think maybe a couple guys in the teens in their system and kick in 13 million is the most they will offer and if no one takes no big deal they’re still the favorites in the nl

To take Kemp’s contract would not involve Verdugo or any of their top 100 prospects. Any rebuilding team would take a solid B level prospect with some upside to take Kemp since most rebuilding teams have a lower level of payroll committed in the future.

Teams dont have to take kemps contract and most rebuilding teams have a good or great farm to where a b level prospect wouldnt be worth taking kemp when you have someone better. Point of taking kemp is to net a prospect they want. Not a prospect the dodgers feel hes worth.

Cross off every NL and that leaves athletics, white sox, tigers, maybe rangers for DH.

Point is, verdugo is blocked at the ML level. Any team thinking of kemp should start by asking for verdugo.

If the dodgers dont meet the price then dodgers keep kemp. Which hurts the dodgers more than the other team not getting the prospect theyd want.

How exactly is Verdugo blocked? Forsythe is a FA after this season and CT3 is a natural 2B/SS. He only went to the OF due to injuries and the fact that LA lost trust in Joc. Verdugo also played all 3 OF positions in the minors. He’s most valuable in CF due to his defense there. But LA could easily have an OF in 2019 of Verdugo LF, Joc CF(if he improves), Puig RF. Verudgo is only blocked for 1 more year. He has nothing left to prove in AAA but LA can easily stash him there until Sept or if an OF gets hurt.

I think you’re greatly overstating the Dodgers need to get rid of them that you’d like to let them be just fine if they don’t. because of that there’s no need to offer someone like four to go or frankly anyone even close to that valuable if no one’s willing to take a mid-tier guy and they just hold on to them and go into the season with the best roster in the NL

Pretty much elaborating on what password said. It’ll take a B prospect to get rid of Kemp because the Dodgers don’t need to get rid of him on a deal they do not like. They traded for him in the first place because it lessened the money they had on the books for this year while adding some money on the books next year. This year is crucial though because they can get under the tax line. If they truly wanted to dump Kemp, they easily could have done that by now by offering a higher prospect to it, but they know they don’t necessarily have to.

That’s just dumb. If I’m the GM of a rebuilding team and I know the Dodgers need/want to move Kemp it is one of your top 3 and all the salary or nothing. I don’t need a B level prospect with you taking some of the money because I don’t need Kemp and that’s not who I’m trading for. I want a top tier prospect or you can keep the salary.

I think the smart play for the Dodgers is just sit on Kemp and hope someone gets a more realistic mind set on it, but I do not see why the rebuilding teams would budge on wanting a top tier prospect to go along with the money.

BAL would probably take Kemp and Ryu if LA also included Buehler. I know nobody wants to hear that, but the O’s most screaming need is in the rotation. Dodgers would get next to nothing back except salary relief, and it would take the inclusion of someone like Buehler to get rid of the albatross.

Yes, a team like the Orioles would be a good match for a trade. Agreed. Kemp is even good friends with Adam Jones.
BUT, they’d have to trade Trumbo first. And the O’s have plenty of good Outfield prospects – they’d want pitching prospects.

I’ve decided to make a point of bashing the “fans” and yinzers less because ultimately they are just swallowing the BS the local media feeds them. It would be nice if read Fangraphs, but they don’t, so….it is what it is.

I believe that the vast majority realizes that the truth lies somewhere in between. Not everything is Nutting’s fault nor is he blameless. The “B Team” and the “Super Genius” are sometimes right, sometimes wrong. This site is not special; precious few who visit it wants to engage in reasoned, thoughtful, nuanced arguments. In that respect , just like local radio.

I don’t think anyone on here thinks that doing that would be smart for the Dodgers unless they’re not giving out much value. also for the record neither of the guys Pirates gave out seem to be any good so maybe it wasn’t such a bad deal

I surely didn’t think that I’d say it, but it has gotten to the point where I think Atlanta could actually sign Todd Frazier to a two year contract. Yes, I am fully aware that Austin Riley could be ready by September, but I’m also fully aware that Riley could struggle too, which would set his time frame back slightly.

Frazier doesn’t cost a draft pick or other penalties, like Moustakas. Frazier also isn’t going to hurt you with his defense at third or first (in case Freddie gets hurt again). It is very possible that even if Riley exceeds expectations that the Braves could deal Frazier away (if his production approaches his career norms) either at the deadline or next off season. I’m just not convinced that the Braves are ready to enter the season with any of Rio Ruiz, Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo regularly playing third.

Well, If the Dodgers want to free up money to sign Darvish maybe the Braves will take back Matt Kemp. How about Matt Kemp, Alex Verdugo, Walker Beuhler and Edwin Rios for Nick Markakis, Jose Ramirez and Sam Freeman. Dodgers move under the luxury cap, save enough to sign Darvish, get one year of Markakis and two solid pre-arb relief pitchers and save $33 Million. Braves return Kemp contract, rookie outfielder, and two other prospects.

This trade would make AA a hero! Three top prospects, each almost or MLB ready, for $33 Million would totally recover from the International Free Agent scandal (That is the way I would sell it to ownership and fans). Now it may not be idea from Dodgers standpoint losing prospects but it does get them where they want to go financially and with Darvish for the coming years. The Braves would give Kemp away or DFA. Could probably get a taker if they paid $39-41MM with Kemp and they save 12 million on the players going West, reducing the cost per prospect to $9MM each. Dodgers move ahead of the Astros.

No rebuilding team is going to trade for kemp and font…yea lets just make up insane stupid ideas and make them “baseball articles” good job fangraphs…they want to get rid of kemp its going to cost them verdugo/buehler…and the farm system is middle of tge pack not “deep” thats almost as insane as that font trade bullsht

The other option for trading Kemp is to take back another bad contract that reduces 2018 payroll but total cost is more over several years. For example, Dodgers send Kemp’s 2 year, $43MM contract to the Royals for Ian Kennedy’s 3 year, $49MM. Dodgers reduce taxable payroll by $5.2MM in 2018 and 2019, but take a $16.5MM hit in 2020, but Hill’s $16MM AAV comes off books in 2020. Dodgers trade Ryu’s $7.9MM contract for prospects and Kennedy becomes Dodgers fifth starter. Dodgers decrease payroll by $13.1MM in 2018. Just one example as there are other bad contracts out there

Something like that might work but then we are only a couple weeks from camp opening and no trade of that kind has yet to materialize. Way back I suggested a straight bad contract swap with the Royals, Kemp for Alex Gordon. It doesn’t buy the Dodgers any real payroll flexibility though.

If the Braves are serious about needing power, then they need to just sign Frazier already. He’s the only guy that makes sense. I’d sign him to a two year deal with year two holding most of the money (since we have already taken on a lot of payroll this season) with incentives for this season. I’d also start Lane Adams over kakis. I don’t see a reason to have Kakis playing everyday. Lane, at this point, is better all round with he exception of not being as disciplined at the plate.

This wouldn’t be a problem if MLB could make it to a point where players were paid for what they do rather than what they did last season. Guaranteed money down to as low as 10-20% of what it is now (Around $5 being the highest guarantee anyone gets) with huge incentive bonuses. Contractual details would rely a lot more on players’ input rather than their agent simply getting them as much money as possible. Would you sign the potential $30m/year deal that would require you to win the triple crown or the potential $20m/year deal with incentive goals that actually line up with the player’s history and trends. It’s obviously a rough idea, but it would do away with this nonsense of teams paying players that can barely compete at a AA level eight digit salaries and transform a GM’s job into legitimately finding the right fit for each position rather than gambling.

Trade him when they are out of contention in July. Trade him 2 weeks before the deadline. That why if he’s traded to an AL team he can rep them. Mad Bum to the Yankees for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield,Chase Adams and one other.

Just for fun of course. They can give him a better chance to win. More money and he’d excel in New York

That would work for both sides only if SF as an organization accepts the reality that rebuilding sooner rather than later is their best course of action. An obstacle that’s just as big is the Giants’ deep attachment to their players. I think Evans would rather die than trade MadBum, Posey, Crawford, Belt, or Panik. I don’t think there are enough psychologists and psychiatrists in San Francisco to treat the fan base for PTSD after such a trade.

The other problem with the Giants starting a rebuild is the contracts they’ve handed out.

Johnny Cueto (4 years, $23.08 AAV), Jeff Samardzija (3, $19.80), Brandon Belt (4, $17.20), Mark Melancon (3, $17.76), and Brandon Crawford (4, $15.20) have little or no surplus value. In order to get solid prospect hauls, they would need to eat quite a bit of cash.

There is no market for Panik (a 1 WAR second baseman). Posey is obviously a highly sought player, but he’s making almost $22 million each of the next four seasons. Bumgarner is the only player who would easily bring back a huge prospect haul.

Plus, Melancon, Posey, and Crawford have full no-trade protection and Samardzija, Crawford, and Belt have limited no-trade protection.

Instead of Kemp and a Dodger prospect, how about Morales and Bo Bichette from the Jays? Seems like a better option to me. Its been reported the Jays are willing to offer Bichette if they take on the Morales contract.

It doesn’t matter who the Braves put on the field. Snitker is an idiot. The Braves haven’t had a decent manager since Joe Torre. Cox and that nutcase that followed him couldn’t manage a 1 pump gas station. J.S gave Cox the best team in baseball for 15 years. If I had that team I could phone in the lineup and go to bed, and they would win 100 games. If they had had a decent manager during all that time they would have won at least 4-5 more pennants and a couple of more W.S. titles.

Snitker uses a 100 pitch count, and then pulls guys after 77 pitches no matter how well he is pitching. The Braves lose 1-0 and use 6 pitchers. Then they complain about the bullpen being overworked. And this year they are going with an 11 man bullpen. That should give us some idea of what to expect.

I kind of agree on Cox. He was given a great team and still managed to squander chances with cockamamie decisions. There were many times when I wondered when the Braves would fire the squirrel. BTW, I’m a longtime Braves fan.

On the subject of Kemp, I thought he did a decent job for the Braves when he was in the lineup. He is now a bigger liability, so the Dodgers won’t be able to do much other than release him. Don’t think that they would waste a valuable bench spot on him and I imagine most other teams are of a like mind.