Articles

The organization of research for physical planning in Poland has had a long tradition reaching back to the inter-war period of later twenties. However, its full development has taken place only after the war. In the last thirty years in Poland such applied research has played an important role in the progress of physical planning on all three basic, i.e.: national, regional and local levels, as well as in the development of various sciences, in particular: of geography. Nevertheless, the subject and the scope of such research were constantly chang-ing. Such changes were connected on one hand with the arising needs of plan-ning and planners, and on the other with readiness and possibilities of undertak-ing the proposed themes by scientific institutions and scientists. Their effec-tiveness was always rather closely connected with organizational forms prevail-ing at the given moment and current methodology of scientific research plan-ning. For these reasons a more detailed description of research carried out in these years, its character and achievements to be presented here should be di-vided into several parts, each connected with successive stages in organizational transformations of physical planning and scientific research. The following pha-ses shall be taken into account: years 1944-1953, the time when the integrated institutions of physical planning were organized, and when their relations to the institutions of economic planning were defined and developed, and when the research institutions at the universities were being reestablished after war de-struction; years 1954-1958, when the national and regional planning was inclu-ded in the long-term or "perspective" economic planning and the central re-search institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences were founded; years 1959-1970, when the long-term research was organized and coordinated by the Com-mittee for Space Economy and Regional Planning of the Polish Academy of Sciences; and, finally years since 1971 when the first draft of the national plan for physical development till 1990 was being prepared and most of the research studies were concentrated within the framework of a very ambitious programme of the so-called "nodal" problem: scientific bases for the physical development of the country. To introduce the whole process a short information en the re-search carried out earlier, in the thirties, i.e., before the Second World War is given. Without this information the post-war situation cannot be understood fully.

In the study, which has served as the basis for this paper, tendencies in transformations in the spatial organization of agriculture were investigated by established by means of the method of extrapolation of the past tendencies and the rate of development. The results of the extrapolation were then revised on the basis of information as to the tasks set before Polish agriculture for the de-cades 1970-1980 and 1980-1990 and means to be allotted for their implementation by the State Planning Commission. The trends of transformation in the spatial organization of agriculture were also determined by the use of the analogy method, i.e., by drawing conclusions from experiences gathered by other coun-tries or regions where the level of agricultural development is higher, whereas the conditions of development are comparable.

The fuel and power economy has become so popular in recent years, espe-cially in view of the world crisis of energy, that there is no need to give the reasons for the significance of power industry all over the world.There are bilateral relations between the national economy development and the development of widely understood power industry: on the one hand indus-try, transportation, agriculture, and household demands for fuel and energy sti-mulate the growth of power plants and systems, and on the other hand, both the amount of power supplied to the end-users and power quality and forms affect technology development, economy development, labour productivity, and stand-ard of living to a great extent.The appropriate furnishing of the nation with power industry facilities, or power industry infrastructure, has become one of more important factors of physical planning under these conditions. Interacting relations can also be seen in this case: on the one hand, the physical planning game is the basis of the planning and designing of power industry systems, on the other hand, the im-plementation of flexible power systems and availability of energy nearly all - over the country can facilitate the physical planning, enable the centralization of industry, equalize the standard of people's living, etc.However, fuel winning and energy conversion, transmission and utilization pose new economical, technical, sociological, ecological, and other problems.The uncontrolled environmental side effects of energy utilization becomes more and more alarming; there is a little doubt that these effects will be more and more significant.Such countries as Poland, whose power economy relies on coal, encounter a particularly difficult task; and this is especially true if the available coal con-tains sulphur compounds whose economical removal from fuel itself or fuel ga-ses has not been successful yet.

The settlement network is the key element of the physical structure of a country. It represents the distribution of the population and thereby determines the utlization of the geographical environment by man.Nowadays when the system of forecasting is being extensively developed as a ba-sis for planning, it is important to visualize the future picture of the settlement network.Bearing this in mind, two possible approaches can be differentiated. The first consists in forecasting in the strict sense of the word, that is, in foreseeing future possible changes in the settlement network based on the extrapolation of phenomena observed today and on the possible changes of these trends depending on the adop-ted assumptions for development. The second approach is more subjective. It con-sists in presenting the probable future picture of the settlement network of the count-ry as it seems to fulfill justified social goals.I wish to present in this article, the methodological premises and the reasoning, which lead to the construction of objective prognoses as regards the settlement net-work of the country. At the same time I should like to make use of these same pre-mises for the construction of one version of the future settlement pattern of Poland which — on the basis of available information — I believe to be the most probable and the most desirable.It has to be mentioned that the version of prognosis presented here for the settle-ment network of Poland is in essence an attempt to expand earlier ideas on this subjecti. This new version seems to be more comprehensive and much better sub-stantiated.I further wish to explain, still as an introductory remark, that I have adopted the year 2000 as the time horizon of forecasting. I do not, however, attach any partic-ular importance to this date for I think that in forecasting for the distant future es-pecially concerning the physical structure, the setting up of a definite time limit is less important than thinking in terms of so-called "open" models which contain in themselves a considerable degree of flexibility and can be harmoniously developed in conditions of changing circumstances.