The Handicapper v5 Manual

The adjustable settings is the core feature of The Handicapper. By configuring the settings to match your believes of whats important and what's not (which stats and ratings to use etc.), you can turn your believes into a number (probability).

Offense/defense statsBy configuring the settings you can give more/less impact to stats or ratings you believe should have a high/low impact on projection the game outcome.

Run environment / home advantageYou can also set the default run environment (average runs/points/goals per game) or adjust league average home team advantage.

Exponential smoothingThe exponential smoothing factor is a tool to adjust the impact of trends in player performance. The higher the factor the more importance recent data is given in calculating player ratings. Even with the max factor (100) the most recent data point is not given a "too high importance" (to keep things statistically significant).

Moving averageMoving average is also a tool to adjust the importance of trends in player performance. The shorter the period the faster trends impact player value.