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Nomura’s heat-map of high-frequency data suggest that non-agricultural GDP growth continues to recover, led mainly by investment and external demand, while consumption demand has been mixed, possibly due to weak monsoon rains and higher fuel costs, explains the research team at Nomura. Key Quotes “We see the recovery concentrated on the demand side, while supply

Kiwi stoops as risk aversion sends Dollar higher. The contraction in Credit Card Spending limited upside potential. NZD/USD is still trading to the downside, heading into the European session near Wednesday’s low of 0.7316. The Kiwi seems to have halted the slide the followed the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which saw bond yields jump and the

Analysts at TDS suggest that for Eurozone data today we get the German IFO survey for February and they’re just slightly above consensus for current sentiment, looking for a small fall to 127.4 (mkt 127.9), but are more pessimistic for expectations, looking for a decline 107.2 (mkt 107.9). Key Quotes “This leaves us exactly on

Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, the central bank’s supervision chief, is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making his scheduled speech titled “10 years after the Global Financial Crisis: How has the world economy changed and where will it go?” at the International Financial Symposium, in Tokyo. Key Headlines: US monetary policy remains

The Japanese currency stole the limelight across the fx space in Asia this Thursday, despite the FOMC minutes-induced rally in Treasury yields, as risk-aversion emerged the key theme after the Asian equities joined the Wall Street sell-off. Rising expectations of a faster pace of the US tightening pushed the Treasury yields higher across the curve,

In its Q4 2017 monetary policy report, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reiterates its “prudent and neutral” monetary policy stance and continues to highlight financial stability as its top priority, notes the research team at Nomura. Key Quotes “We read this as a sign that financial deleveraging and the deepening of market reforms will

Crude oil was unable to hold itself up following Wednesday trading and has slid further with WTI testing 61.00 per barrel after dipping to 60.74. API crude oil inventories provided temporary solace for oil prices after showing a surprise contraction in oil stores of 900,000 barrels, a welcome miss from the anticipated million barrel

Justin Smirk, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that while we have seen the removal of some of the excess slack in the labour market, as measured by the broader measures of labour market utilisation, they still observe on-going weakness in wage outcomes. Key Quotes “Total hourly wages ex bonuses increased 0.6% in Q4, just slightly

Germany’s trade surplus with the US widened in 2017, according to the German Federal Statistical Office. Germany exported goods worth €111.5 billion and imported goods worth €61 billion in 2017, resulting in a surplus of €50.5 billion. The data is unlikely to go down well with the officials in Washington. Germany has been criticized in the recent

Analysts at Nomura note that the US existing home sales fell 3.2% m-o-m to an annualized pace of 5.38mn in January, below expectations (Nomura: +1.6% to 5.66mn, Consensus: +0.5% to 5.60mn). Key Quotes “The prior month’s sales were revised down to 5.56mn from 5.57mn. Singlefamily home sales fell 3.8% m-o-m with broad-based slowing across regions,

Sterling declines as bond yields drive USD higher. Brexit continues to bog down GBP/USD buying potential. GBP/USD is heading into Thursday trading on its backfoot, testing Wednesday’s low of 1.3905. Sterling bulls have worked hard to push the pair up with nothing to show for it except for brief volatility spikes, as GBP/USD has continued

AUD/USD remains depressed around 0.78. The 10Y AU-US yield spread has turned negative. The overnight sell-off in the AUD/USD seems to have stalled just below 0.78, however, buyers are in no mood to step in, given the 10-year AU-US yield spread has turned negative. As of writing, the yield on the US 10-year treasury note

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