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A Non-Haters Guide to NYK 13' Pessimism

There is a lot of optimism flying around, as our front office has been flying around at warp speed with many, many signings this off-season. Many of which have been marquee names, or longtime (past time?) NYK heros.

Indeed, a return of Camby and Thomas -- two NYK let go under *disastrous* circumstances, and proceeded to belt out many quality, supremely effective years -- makes me feel like we are right there with MIA, signing aged yet effective admirals to small contracts in a process of continual refinement to a sturdy core.

Lin was a fiasco. But this off-season, otherwise, has been as good as it could get.

Lin will haunt us, though, barring a miracle year from Felton. And I feel justified pessimism in all other facet of our franchise being an actual contender.

Let me preface this with my summary of the NBA today, and the necessary steps (and lucky breaks) needed to truly contend.

As we are built, the realities of cour cap situation (vs other top teams, namely MIA), dictate that our only logical chance of contending is to have one or more all-star like players......not getting paid like all-stars, and having them locked into reasonable, multi-year contracts.

Shumpert is an example of this type of player; and why his injury was so supremely horrible in my eyes.

Lin represented this, as well (forgetting about any worth to MSG, and worth to team chemistry aside).

If you look at BOS, eg, their sweetheart deal with Rondo is the underlying mechanism that has let them do what they have done to date. That, and NBA-leading team chemistry.

MIA has the #1 player in the world (by far), and had their max FA's take pay cuts. This is an advantage which gives them an inherent edge over literally every other team in the league, barring another team getting players to replicate that model. This is not talked about enough.

OKC has had once in a generation good fortune with drafting -- I can't think of a franchise striking consecutive 1st round gold on the magnitude of:

Durant
Westbrook
Harden
Ibaka

Again, this has given them a window and inherent (albeit more temporary edge) like MIA, where they have players essentially performing at a level that exceeds their contracts in a profound way.

On issues of our players themselves, and with one final Lin follow-up:

I fear for TyChan regressing offensively -- he may well suffer the most from not having Lin, whom he had growing, surprisingly good chemistry with, particularly offensively. In turn, and the screening bonanza I see him taking part in this season, I also feel a legitimate fear of us injury bug returning

I think we have major and potentially crippling question marks at both guard slots. Potential with our guards? Yes. But I see several breaks having to break our way.

On top of this, we have an undeniable issue of chemistry between our studs, which to date simply hasn't been resolved or proven to be an issue of the past. Literally, there has been zero tangible examples born from the high court of reality that can soothe this concern.

Underlying injury issues for Amare still (always?) lurking.

I just need to call it like I see it.

Can't wait for the season to start, can't wait to watch and root for the Knicks.....Can't wait to watch some potential magic......but, I see a lot having to go right just to get us in position at having an outside puncher's chance at taking down MIA.

Admittedly, the above could spell a Doomsday/Worst Case situation; I'd be more than happy to see it's foil.

There's a reason last year was plagued by injury, loads of players were out of shape due to the lockout. The start of the season was rushed, barely any training camp or pre-season, and games were strung so closely together. As we all know from fantasy, the injuries last season were freak and constant.

I wouldn't like to comment too deeply on the Lin situation but given your own assessment of the financial situation, matching Lin's offer from Houston would have just further compounded the issue.

The season really hinges on our backcourt if you ask me. We had Felton before and he was pretty damn good as a Knick (albeit under MDA, a PG's coach). Kidd, IDK how much he has left in the tank but as he'll be a 25 minute player it shouldn't be too bad.

Really, things hinge on Felton being able to play up to his potential and build chemistry with Melo and Tyson.

I have to say our roster on paper looks even better than last year, the only serious ? being our SG spot.

A lot this season rides on felton. I feel like there are so many better PGs we could have gotten but whatever. I honestly think Pablo and Kidd are good enough to start and be effective. So if felton implodes, from either pressure in the playoffs or too many cupcakes, we will still be good.

The problem with looking at the contracts and judging the roster based on cap space and flexibility is that you lose focus of the here and now.

This roster is full on talent and experience. We don't need significant contributions (ala. all-star performance) from anything other then our "All-Star" paid players(STAT & Melo). If we get our money's worth out of everyone on this team we are championship caliber. It will just be a bonus if we get 2010-Felton or Shump comes back with tenacity and dedication. This team seems very similar to the Dallas team that just won the chip 2 years ago. But instead of Dirk we have STAT & Melo, which I feel makes us a better team.

You can choose to be a pessimist. Certainly your tenure as a Knicks fan should be all the experience that you need to justify your stance. But I feel that for the first time since the early 90's we have a real chance at contending for the title. That's just me choosing to be an optimist and my justifications have been started all over the forums.

I just believe that judging teams by their cap room and flexibility is more of a bad/mediocre team practice, especially when rebuilding. But this is no longer a rebuild project.

This is a contending, playoff bound, high seed capable team. We have a strong coach, solid starting 5, deep bench, a focus on defense, a full training camp and pre-season, 2 players in the Olympics and the best fan's and home court in the world.

If the only things we have to complain about is not paying a mediocre player more money then he's worth (Lin, Fields) and that we are locked into no-contract flexibility for the next 2-3 years while we are contending for a title, then sign me up!!!

I looked a little closer at it and doesn't this team look like it's built to stop the heat?
I mean the heat are small inside and we got tyson and camby.
Brewer and shump to defend wade and lebron. Plus felton and kidd are decent defenders.

The problem with looking at the contracts and judging the roster based on cap space and flexibility is that you lose focus of the here and now.

This roster is full on talent and experience. We don't need significant contributions (ala. all-star performance) from anything other then our "All-Star" paid players(STAT & Melo). If we get our money's worth out of everyone on this team we are championship caliber. It will just be a bonus if we get 2010-Felton or Shump comes back with tenacity and dedication. This team seems very similar to the Dallas team that just won the chip 2 years ago. But instead of Dirk we have STAT & Melo, which I feel makes us a better team.

You can choose to be a pessimist. Certainly your tenure as a Knicks fan should be all the experience that you need to justify your stance. But I feel that for the first time since the early 90's we have a real chance at contending for the title. That's just me choosing to be an optimist and my justifications have been started all over the forums.

I just believe that judging teams by their cap room and flexibility is more of a bad/mediocre team practice, especially when rebuilding. But this is no longer a rebuild project.

This is a contending, playoff bound, high seed capable team. We have a strong coach, solid starting 5, deep bench, a focus on defense, a full training camp and pre-season, 2 players in the Olympics and the best fan's and home court in the world.

If the only things we have to complain about is not paying a mediocre player more money then he's worth (Lin, Fields) and that we are locked into no-contract flexibility for the next 2-3 years while we are contending for a title, then sign me up!!!

* To contend for a title, Melo & Stat have to want to lead a team, not be the star scorers and say like "we're all working hard man".

Grtting to second round is a nice first step for knicks fans. Melo approaching his 30s where hopefully true maturity happens. Miami? Prrhaps wade declines a lot with bad knees if so knicks must take advantage.

I think Chandler will be fine without Lin, to say that Kidd (who he won a championship with), Prigioni and Felton can't replace Lin is kinda ridiculous. Other than that, I agree with everything. We do need to catch some breaks this year on the injuries, but considering it's a normal schedule unlike last year and the guys are SUPPOSEDLY coming in in shape, I think we will be fine. Forget second round, go for everything and take out miami in the semi finals. Oh and I do agree with the post about this team might be built to stop miami, maybe that's what Grunwald had in mind from the get.

I looked a little closer at it and doesn't this team look like it's built to stop the heat?
I mean the heat are small inside and we got tyson and camby.
Brewer and shump to defend wade and lebron. Plus felton and kidd are decent defenders.

Just a thought lol

The fact that they are small has nothing to do with why tyson, camby, and KT will be so important. Lebron and wade are streak shooters at best, they score from attacking the basket..Which is exactly why we have our big guys to sponge fouls and protect the paint. Guys like Lin or Rondo are real small, but you want to have a big man in the paint without a doubt or that is layup after layup for those dudes..

Logic .. Optimist .. Pessimist

Pessimist or Optimist or Logic .. pickem

Jordan & Pippin average close to 40 points per in the regular season from their athletic speed by beating oponents on fastbreaks.
Lebron & Wade average close to 30+ points per in the regular season from their athletic speed and their lock-on lob-pass fastbreaks.

The Knicks offseason pickups wouldve been a breath-taking addition to the Knicks roster lastseason on the trading deadline .. mainly for their veteran-experience at communication with teammates and coaches plan.

How next season will turnout is more of a mystery then being a pessimist or optimist of the regular season or postseason.
A fresh training-camp is a good thang, but the Knicks format in over a decade has kept the Knicks at being the top 1 team with the majority of injuries in training-camp. It will be a blessing and a first time in a long long time for the Knicks to get pass training-camp & preseason without any injuries other then Shump .. there is no CBA lockout excuse or justification for coming to training-camp unprepared for a 82 game season.

So far the Knicks are very dependent on a healthy Kidd/Brewer/Tyson for the first 41 games of the season to bring discipline & direction to a roster of teammates who want to do things their way, rather than for the sake of the team.

Raymond Felton may not know it, but Felton is coach Woody's success this season at the SG spot in a backcourt lineup with Kidd or Pablo.
Felton's denial at being a combo-guard in the NBA has been holding back his own success (every team scout knows Felton's every move at the point). Something to be PESSIMISTIC about.
Felton has to work on his poor pick n roll by adding a left-side n right-side of the foul-line pick n roll, plus stop favoring his one hand dribble.
The Knicks now have 4 strong bigmen in Amare/K.Thomas/Camby/and Melo who average above 50% FG in any pick n roll play, which could be a big advantage for us in winning a postseason series. Something to be OPTIMISTIC about.

After watching Shump's injury in the first postseason game several times, and the progress Shump has made 2 months after surgery, I can not include the athletic-defensive Shump in the 2012-13 season rotation .. that is being overly OPTIMISTIC.
After watching the USA team this offseason, it is hard to imagine Melo giving a consistant defensive-effort in the postseason games .. that is being overly OPTIMISTIC.

its all comes dowmn to which teams stay healthy...Last year all i heard all year was the heat and Bulls are the best in the east. Then the Bulls lose Rose, and then they are just another quality oppenent, but no comp to the heat. What happens to the heat if LeBron really got hurt last year in game 3 of the finals. If he doesn't play do the heat beat OKC. I don't think so. LBJ is the game changer. WE need to stay healthy. Hey maybe by mid season Pablo becomes our starter, and another Lin story in the works. Amar'e needs to find his shots and Anthony needs to play more Team ball, and we are a dangerous team healthy