There were some shots of him in the other thread where he looked very dry. Not as bad as normal, but he can't rely on size to get him past Alvarado. I think he looks weak in some pictures and Alvarado looks like an absolute tank. I wouldn't bet on Rios looking good on the scales.

He doesn't look as bad, but the fact he has that sweat suit on leads me to think he still has a ways to go or he's just looking to keep that weight off.
That coupled with the fact he was layered at media day