Will students show up for college in fall 2020? Community colleges offer a hint. It isn't pretty.

David JesseDetroit Free Press

Monday

Apr 27, 2020 at 7:47 AM

Ask a community college president about what school will look like in the fall and be prepared for an eye roll, lots of shrugging and even a baffled look or two.

They've got no clue, really. That's not their fault. In the coronavirus era of rapidly changing information and restrictions, the presidents have no idea what they'll be allowed to do, much less how they are going to instruct students.

“That will be the million-dollar question. I’m not sure we know yet,” said Martha Parham, the senior vice president for public relations for the American Association of Community Colleges. “A lot depends on how the economy bounces back.”

"The unknown is if we're still in the online [learning] environment in the fall," added Tracy D. Hall, president of Southwest Tennessee Community College in Memphis.

It's not just administrators who are in limbo. Students find themselves wondering how school will work, if they will be safe going back and if they will have enough money to afford school this fall.

Many community college leaders remain hopeful that their schools have the flexibility — and affordability — to play an integral role in the effort to help the country transition from stay-at-home orders to get-back-to-work optimism.

Until then, though, the picture that can be drawn by looking at enrollment for upcoming summer sessions isn't pretty for most schools. A good case study can be found at Washtenaw Community College in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

For several years, its enrollment has remained steady, with only slight losses, even as other community colleges have seen percentage decreases of around double digits.

Washtenaw has been a bit of an anomaly amid an old truism — when the economy is good, as it had been before now, community college enrollment drops. When the economy is bad, enrollment in community colleges grows. That's because community colleges are heavily involved in workforce development and skilled trade training. By those indications, the cratering of the economy should be good for enrollment.

Ummm, not so fast. Mix in a pandemic and everything goes crazy.

Washtenaw will start its summer term on May 8, and all classes will be online only. And even Washtenaw will start with significantly fewer students.

On March 12, registration was down 11% for summer classes compared with the same time last year. At that point, the college was planning to offer face-to-face instruction. On April 3, after the school said it would go online only, registrations were 36.5% behind 2019's number. By April 15, that had clawed back some, leaving enrollment registration down 26%. The percent lost is mirrored in the number of credit hours students are planning to take.

"We're seeing that same trend for the fall," Washtenaw President Rose Bellanca said. "This is unheard of. We're ready for a hurricane, a flood, a tornado. We even did an active shooter drill. We never did a pandemic drill. It's hard to tell what is going to happen."

That unpredictability can be found all across the country.

"We're preparing for an increase in students in the fall. That's just what history tells us about what happens in a downturn," said Paul Feist, the vice chancellor for communications for the California Community Colleges system, which includes 115 schools and 2.1 million students. "I don't know that it will be different this time. We don't have any history with a pandemic."

Students on community college campuses can generally be broken into two groups — those who are working toward transfer to a four-year school and those learning some sort of skilled trade, from culinary to welding. Those latter programs are among the most highly hit by enrollment drops. Some have been outright canceled. It's hard to teach welding online only.

Washtenaw is far from alone. Michigan's Grand Rapids Community College is also looking at a steep decline for the summer, said Bill Pink, its president. The school is waiving fees and pushing workforce-oriented classes into the second seven-week summer session at the end of summer. The fall schedule is up in the air.

"I think any institution would be foolish if they aren't planning for a very irregular delivery of classes this fall," Pink said. "I do think community colleges have a great role to play. As a region and a state, we are going to be asking how do we get people back to work. We have an important role to play in that."

Flexibility has long been a strength of community colleges, which can move more quickly than universities typically can to meet changing employment needs in a region, said Parham with the American Association of Community Colleges.

“By design, community colleges reflect the needs of their local communities,” she said. “That’s not a coincidence.”

Southwest Tennessee's Hall agreed. "That's exactly what we're supposed to be good at: being flexible," she said. "Our populations are diverse and their needs are diverse, so we need to be diverse in our offerings."

The possibility that colleges won't be ready to return to in-person learning by the fall has many educators bracing for enrollment declines. Four-year universities might be particularly vulnerable, Syd Kitson, chairman of the Florida state university system’s board of governors, said Wednesday during a conference call with members of a state panel looking into how to reopen Florida’s schools and colleges.

“Fall semester enrollment may be reduced as returning students, particularly from at-risk populations, decide to stop or postpone work on their degree due to personal hardships or other concerns,” Kitson said.

Community colleges could see the same effect. But they might also benefit by picking up cost-conscious students who balk at paying full price for online-only classes at four-year universities, which are more expensive than community colleges on average by more than one-third, according to data from the American Association of Community Colleges.