Obama's Census Choice Unsettles Republicans

By DAVID STOUT

Published: April 3, 2009

Robert M. Groves, a former census official and now a sociology professor at the University of Michigan, was nominated Thursday by President Obama to run the Census Bureau, a choice that instantly made Republicans nervous.

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke described Mr. Grove as ''a respected social scientist who will run the Census Bureau with integrity and independence.''

Even before the official White House announcement, rumors about the choice drew criticism on Thursday from Republicans already anxious about the 2010 census, a multibillion-dollar enterprise that will determine which states gains seats in Congress and which ones lose them, as well as the allocation of federal dollars to states and cities based on population.

Mr. Groves, 60, was not available for comment on Thursday. He faces confirmation by the Senate but, given the Democrats' 58-to-41 advantage, would appear to have an excellent chance.

Republicans expressed alarm because of one of Mr. Groves's specialties, statistical sampling -- roughly speaking, the process of extrapolating from the numbers of people actually counted to arrive at estimates of those uncounted and, presumably, arriving at a realistic total.

If minorities, immigrants, the poor and the homeless are those most likely to be missed in an actual head count, and if political stereotypes hold true, then statistical sampling would presumably benefit the Democrats.

Republicans have generally argued that statistical sampling is not as reliable as its devotees insist. ''Conducting the census is a vital constitutional obligation,'' Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House minority leader, said Thursday. ''It should be as solid, reliable and accurate as possible in every respect. That is why I am concerned about the White House decision to select Robert Groves as director of the Census Bureau.''

Representative Darrell Issa of California, the ranking Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, also issued a statement of dismay. ''This is an incredibly troubling selection that contradicts the administration's assurances that the census process would not be used to advance an ulterior political agenda,'' Mr. Issa said.

The Census Bureau is part of the Department of Commerce, whose secretary, Mr. Locke, said during his recent confirmation hearings that ''there are no plans to use any type of statistical sampling with respect to population count.''

In 1999, the Supreme Court ruled that an actual count must be used to apportion seats among the states in the House of Representatives, the only purpose for the once-a-decade census spelled out in the Constitution. But the 5-to-4 ruling left open the possibility that statistical adjustments could be used to redraw Congressional districts within the states, and for other purposes, like the distribution of federal money.

When he was associate director of statistical design at the Census Bureau in the early 1990s, Mr. Groves pushed for statistically adjusting the 1990 census to make up for an undercount widely believed to have been several million people. But Robert A. Mosbacher Sr., the commerce secretary in the administration of President George Bush, torpedoed the idea, calling it an attempt at ''political tampering.''

Mr. Boehner, recalling that controversy, said Thursday that ''we will have to watch closely to ensure the 2010 census is conducted without attempting similar statistical sleight of hand.''

Even before the news about Mr. Groves, Republicans were uneasy about the census, given a White House statement several weeks ago that the new census director would ''work closely with White House senior management,'' as well as with the commerce secretary.

Republicans envisioned the census chief consulting with Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff, a former congressman who is known as a combative partisan and once headed the campaign committee that helped Democrats take over Congress in 2006.

The Republicans have apparently not been soothed by White House assurances that there will be no effort to politicize the census. And the sudden withdrawal of Senator Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, as President Obama's nominee for commerce secretary did not help. How the census would unfold was reportedly a factor in Mr. Gregg's decision.

Mr. Groves graduated summa cum laude from Dartmouth College with a degree in sociology in 1970. He earned master's degrees in statistics and sociology from the University of Michigan and a doctorate in sociology there. His r?m?ncludes many posts in academic life, in the United States and abroad. His first job, in 1968, was as a guard in the Vermont state prison.