Krauthammer on North Korea: It’s time for Japan to go nuclear

posted at 9:02 pm on May 26, 2009 by Allahpundit

Food for thought this evening as the NorKs fire yet another missile into the sea. Why would Japan want its own arsenal when it already enjoys the deterrent effect of being under America’s nuclear umbrella? Simple: A Japanese arsenal wouldn’t really be aimed at deterrence. It would be aimed at scaring the hell out of China, where memories of Japanese aggression are long. The thinking, I guess, is that China would be sufficiently cowed by Japanese nukes that they’d have no choice but to try much harder to calm Kim down lest they end up being drawn into a three-way nuclear war with North Korea and Japan. There’s logic to that, but is a logical analysis the best way to approach North Korea’s thinking? Japanese nukes might cause them to flip out and attack; alternatively (or additionally), it might be seen by China as such a provocation by the U.S. and its client state that they’d look to retaliate against Taiwan. At a bare minimum, Sino-American relations would deteriorate. Exit question: Nukes or no nukes? Click the image to watch.

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Same here…but that’s only possible if they still believe we will stop at nothing to protect them. That is clearly no longer true. With that guarantee now gone, I can’t fault them for taking matters into their own hands. If the result doesn’t suit the interests of the US, then we should have voted for a better class of leaders.

You probably wouldn’t advocate for Japanese nukes if you’ve read this, and taken it seriously.

Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction.

Japan barely has a military at the moment, much less the desire for nuclear weapons. It’s no longer political suicide to talk openly about becoming a nuclear power, but the will is not there among most people. For the older voter, it’s unthinkable. They are moving away somewhat from total pacifism to normality, but they are not there yet.

South Korea is still wedded to rapprochement no matter what the reality is between the North and the South. And at the moment, there is little love lost between them and Japan. The Liancourt Rocks, for example, have been a serious source of disagreement. And historically, there are plenty of grievances.

A nuclear Japan would change the entire region and since they are a major proponent of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, that would also be affected. This is much more complicated than it seems for the whole world.

Agreed…but stopping proliferation is only possible when the US guaranteed security with the nuclear umbrella. Those days are now gone with an exclamation point. The Obama regime has made nuclear proliferation a foregone conclusion among our allies and enemies…he has already made the likelihood of nuclear holocaust a probability rather than a remote possibility with his disarmament policies.

N.Korea is blasting away with impunity. Why is the entire GOP silent? Why aren’t they racking up huge fuss over this issue?Why is GOP letting Obama get away with his pathetic response to N.Korea? Since the GOP is already hitting him about nat. security, why are they being so squeamish about N.Korea? The golf pictures will make for some nice ads. The idiot who said they’ve feel no urgency will make for a nice quote (reported in the Bolton article).

Kristol is right. Except for Gingrich and Bolton, nobody else is talking about it. Where are the hearings? What’s Cantor doing about it? What’s the senate GOP doing? Where’s the young brigade?

Sarah has tweeted and released a press release but I think she does need to do a bit more. Obama has successfully distracted everyone with his SC court pick and Sarah’s the only one who can bring back attention to this very grave matter. Since, N.Korea has tested more missiles, its right time to talk up missile defense.

I also hope Liz Cheney will branch out from waterboarding and starting talking N.Korea. The more people do it, the better. The Obama administration will get away with its dont care attitude until more people start using this to beat them up.

i lived in japan for 9 years and i can tell you for certain that the japanese people are all fervently anti-nuke. they will never go for it, period.

i am a big krauthammer fan, but this is a bad idea.

homesickamerican on May 26, 2009 at 9:58 PM

I don’t think it is a bad idea for Japan to become a nuclear power. It could very well increase deterrence against North Korea and China. However, I do agree that it is unlikely that Japan will do it soon. Their attitudes might change as the dangers increase. Hopefully, not before it’s too late.

Common knowledge. It’s a derogatory term.
I care because they’re people.
I didn’t see “#8″. I’ve never heard of that term before, so I don’t know if it’s objectionable.
jgapinoy on May 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM

Then we must run in different circles; the Japs I know chalk it up the same as Yanks, Frenchies, Kiwis, Canucks, Aussies, etc. etc. I guess objectionable must be in the ear of the listener.

Same here…but that’s only possible if they still believe we will stop at nothing to protect them. That is clearly no longer true. With that guarantee now gone, I can’t fault them for taking matters into their own hands. If the result doesn’t suit the interests of the US, then we should have voted for a better class of leaders.

AUINSC on May 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM

Yep. Why would any country feel they are under America’s nuclear umbrella?

Late to the conversation & I probably won’t keep up with it. But I’ll say:

I disagree with CK on specifics. Theoretically a nuclear-armed Japan would be helpful in the region. But it won’t happen – there’s far too much opposition to nuclear weapons in that country for that to be realistic.

However generally I agree with him. The nuclear threat from NK might be countered with a nuclear threat from another nearby power. SK? AUS?

21 May 2009—Japan’s power-generation companies are moving full-speed ahead—again—to start plutonium-thermal power generation this fall, in the face of fierce opposition from antinuclear groups. Japan needs to deal with its growing stockpiles of plutonium, a by-product of the fuel used in its reactors. This fissile material must be disposed of by burying it deep underground. Alternatively, it can be recycled and used again in Japan’s light-water reactors after it is combined with uranium to produce mixed-oxide fuel, or MOX.
…
Tensions rose in Japan on 18 May when two armed ships, the Pacific Pintail and Pacific Heron, arrived from France delivering a cargo of MOX, despite intense opposition from environmental and antinuclear groups at home and along the sea route that took the vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, in South Africa, and through the southwest Pacific Ocean.

If so, the shipments are of processed plutonium for energy production.

Common knowledge. It’s a derogatory term.
I care because they’re people.
jgapinoy on May 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM

Then we must run in different circles; the Japs I know chalk it up the same as Yanks, Frenchies, Kiwis, Canucks, Aussies, etc. etc. I guess objectionable must be in the ear of the listener.

Bishop on May 26, 2009 at 10:16 PM

It’s not common knowledge to me, and I don’t think anyone here meant it that way, but simply as a convenient abbreviation. But I did some searching and all on line references depict the term as derogatory. e.g.

Anyway, not exactly. The 1,800 kilos from us was classified but the U.S. government as not ‘exactly’ weapons grade but the Department of Energy said it was possible to fashion 50 weapons from it. Britian and France have supplied Japan with another 4,500 tons of the metal (MOX 2 and MOX 3). MOX 1 was 1999 (U.S. material).

I don’t think I have ever disagreed with Charles Krauthammer, on anything. I agree with him on everything he said here, as well.

I also believe this is another example of the uselessness of the U.N. I think we should drop out of the U.N. and form a “League of Democracies,” although under Obama, we may not qualify for membership in four years.

I do not believe for one instant that North Korea does not have China’s permission to build atomic warheads and missiles. North Korea is very dependent on China and China could crush North Korea and depose Kim with the greatest of ease.
MB4 on May 26, 2009 at 9:35 PM

To quote LBJ, they [the Chinese] “would rather have them [the North Koreans] inside the tent pissing out rather than outside the tent pissing in.”

Thanks. So, such nuclear material can be used either for bomb making or energy production. But, as near as I can tell, there is no evidence that Japan has any of the facilities needed for nuclear bomb making, or shows any evidence of such activity. So…

Or in this case, the lack of them. The Japanese, same as the Europeans, have fallen below the “lowest-low” fertility rate signifying a free falling population. Unlike the Europeans, they did not import muslems to do their dirty work, unassimilated muslems who breed like rabbits.

So while the native Europeans are doomed to be replaced in a few generations, the Japanese have a chance to survive. But it will take a while, in the meantime they’ll need to protect their territorial integrity. Best way to protect your country without manpower?

Bad idea. (Krauthammer’s.) Arming everyone with nukes is pretty much the opposite of nonproliferation, and portends a world whose problems are guaranteed to only get worse.

Blunting the potential deterrent effect of nuclear missiles with an effective missile defense is the way to go. Naturally, Obama is pursuing the opposite course, reducing funding for missile defense development (and, as HondaV65 pointed out, cancelling a planned missile defense installation in Alaska, an act of mind-blowing idiocy).

The other solid measure to galvanize China, and the other parties to the Six-Party talks, would be a US reevaluation of the security situation on the Korean peninsula, and the Far East in general. My, isn’t that a destabilizing series of actions by the Kim regime. We should probably experiment with having a greater naval and air presence in the region. A major missile defense exercise with Japan seems indicated. What was it Taiwan was asking for only last year — F-16s? We need to revisit that. And gosh, it’s been an awful long time since we had a big antipiracy/counterterrorism exercise in the chokepoints of the South China Sea and Strait of Malacca. We really should invite India into one this time, and get Indonesia to play, as well as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and our good buddies the Aussies.

One of the burdens of being the US of A is carrying our own water. We shouldn’t shrink from that destiny, we just need to approach it imaginatively. You start asking others to carry your water, you lose all control of where it’s going to go.

Wasn’t it recently that the Japanese wanted to buy lots of F-22s from us? You know, the air superiority vehicle made by Lockheed that Japan wanted to buy just in case the Norks pulled stupid crap like shoot off a missile or explode a nuke?

But we wouldn’t let them because the new administration was convinced that Japan would apparently use any F-22s we sold them to invade China or something. Of course, Obama and Gates also knew it was a brilliant move to completely cut the F-22 program.

Will China join in the fun? While we’re messing with North Korea, China takes Taiwan, and the Russian Chinese border erupts like never before, meanwhile Gaza screams for attention with little missiles into Israel, causing a response into Gaza AND Syria, then Iran blows it’s top.

Not far from any of this, thinking nobody will notice or care, Pakistan and India start trading punches again.

And Africa melts.

Here in the USA, Obama is hailed as the muslim prophet who finally brought the apocalypse! Race wars flare in the USA as conservatives and liberals take to shooting each other in the head for giggles.

At very least we should have missile defenses in Japan and S. Korea. Do we. I think it is unimaginable that they don’t have a decent shield by now. I mean it isn’t like Kim was keeping his plans a secret.

I nod to Krauthammer’s brilliance but I’m not convinced that anyone else getting nukes is a good idea. Sure they are our friends today… but how fast loyalties change in today’s world.

We may not always be the Super power they feel a need to please. China could take our place.

I’ve contended for a long time Japan should have nukes. Especially now with Obama in the White House and his penchant for breaking contracts willy nilly, there’s no guarantee the US would be there for Japan.

Unless they want to end up the only country in history to get nuked TWICE, the Japanese better get to steppin’ on building their own arsenal.

Hate to be the one to tell them this, but the guy in The White House? Yeah, not going to use the U.S. nuclear “umbrella”. Arm yourselves or prepare to eat another nuke (or four).

Our current honcho isn’t interested in anybody’s enemies except his own, and all his enemies live right here in the U.S.

In other words: Good luck, you’re on your own.

(BTW, wasn’t 0bama’s “coming” supposed to herald some “hopeful new era of change and peace” where everyone was just going to throw down their weapons and embrace the miracle that IS the first black American president? Yeah, I didn’t buy that BS either but a lot of dopes did. Think they’re getting it yet? Probably going to be “Arma-gettin’ it” soon enough…)

Hey SuperCool:No they ain’t getting it yet,and never will.If they couldn’t see through Obama’s B.S. before they voted for him,they never will.When they see the mushroom clouds,they wil blame it on Boooooooosh.

I generally agree with CK here. Clearly more sanctions won’t work from us work because they don’t get much of anything from America anyway. The six party talks have been a failure. Bilateral talks don’t seem to be promising either. And we don’t want to reward Kim for developing nukes.

The only way to get NK to get rid of their nukes is to force China to put pressure on them to do so. And perhaps the only way China will do that is if they have skin in the game. And that won’t happen unless there are nukes in Japan or South Korea. It would help if it was subtlely implied that in the case of a NK nuclear strike, our (and our allies’s) nukes could find themselves pointed toward Beijing as well as Pyongyang.

The best option of all is to install the sort of nuclear shield in Asia that we were working to put in Eastern Europe. Of course that involves all sort of diplomatic problems as well, including resistance from our own current government.

But there are no easy answers here. NK missiles have to be countered, either by a shield or by nukes.

Hey SuperCool:No they ain’t getting it yet,and never will.If they couldn’t see through Obama’s B.S. before they voted for him,they never will.When they see the mushroom clouds,they wil blame it on Boooooooosh.

DDT on May 27, 2009 at 3:51 AM

Only the regime diehards will stick around if we lose a city.

Most of the suckers normal folks who voted for Big 0 will know EXACTLY where the blame lies when an American city gets vaporized.

I also lived in Japan and my wife is Japanese. Although the Japanese hate the idea of going nuclear, they hate the idea of a nuclear armed North Korea even more. (Better to have atomic bombs in the arsenal as a deterrent than to be nuked again.)Japan will do what it has to do to survive. Example: Technically the Japanese have no Army (built into the constitution) yet they get around that with a Self Defense Force of 750,000-replete with tanks, jet bombers and rockets-one the the largest military forces in Asia.

But South Korea may beat them to it and, with Obama weakening the American military—all the more reason to get the bomb-of course, not without harsh protests and even street riots.

This made me laugh. AP, the NKs are already crazed psychos. I think we need to bomb NKs capital and their reactors with deep bunker busters. Flatten their military. It would take a large sustained run, but their ability to fire anything at anyone would be zero.

China doesn’t have a problem with a Nuclear Neighborhood, so we should just expand it a bit to trustworthy Nations that need a bit of protection in a neighborhood getting rougher by the day.

I trust Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan with nuclear weapons far more than I will ever trust N. Korea… and if you go by the ‘you break it, you own it’ deal, then China pulled N. Korea’s bacon out of the fire in the ’50s and really has to figure out what to do with it as it is their responsibility. And if they are perfectly happy with the Magic Kingdom of Mr. Kim, which goes far beyond nukes to the Super Note trade and narcotics/pharma trade, then they should have zero problem with a Japan able to turn out nuclear devices as fast as, say, it turns out Honda cars. Plus Japan already has missile technology as witness their ability to orbit their own satellites.

Yes, no problem at all with people who have representative democracy in a Republic deciding to defend themselves. And if we can’t summon up the forces to help them, then helping their technical folks get up to snuff is the next best thing. Japan probably doesn’t need that, but offering to help would go a long, long way in this ‘supporting friends and allies’ thing that the President talks so much about and does just the opposite when he finally has to do something.

I don’t trust South Korea as far as I can throw them. Not one bit. Aside from their ungrateful bitching about America at every turn, do you remember how that whole country cheated like crazy during the Seoul Olympics. That was one of the most disgusting displays I had ever seen in my life and, if that’s how low they are with respect to a sporting event, I would never trust them with anything serious. I was just appalled. Some may say that it was a minor event, but to me it said quite a lot about their culture, and nothing good. And then all of their America-bashing just turns my stomach.

Japan I trust, but not with nukes, to be honest.

The key today, though it won’t happen, is to get nukes out of the hands of the savages like Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, … not to empower other countries with nukes. If we don’t have the guts to hit these belligerent regimes and take away their nukes (doing away with decent amounts of the populations in the process) then this game is lost, anyway. Just outsourcing nuke strikes (which is all that empowering others with nukes is) doesn’t work for me. If we aren’t willing to do what needs to be done, then it’s all over.

I have been saying that Japan should be released from the treaty to allow them to have nukes for years. Japan is a good ally of ours. Maybe not the best, but strong enough. Not to mention they aren’t best buds with “Lil’ Kim”