Colonel Pat Lang's Outpost - "A Committee of Correspondence"

19 April 2017

My thoughts on Korea - Chapter 1 - 19 April, 2017

"It was supposed to be steaming towards North Korea more than a week ago, an “armada” signaling American resolve. Then it wasn’t.

Now, it seems the USS Carl Vinson may finally be heading north.

“Our deployment has been extended 30 days to provide a persistent presence in the waters off the Korean Peninsula,” Rear Admiral Jim Kilby, the commander of Carrier Strike Group One, said in a message posted on the Carl Vinson’s Facebook page addressed to “families and loved ones” of the personnel on board.

The Carl Vinson, accompanied by a carrier air wing, two guided-missile destroyers and a cruiser, was supposed to have been ordered to sail north after leaving Singapore on April 8. But a week later, the Navy published photos showing it was actually sailing the opposite direction through the Sunda Strait between the Indonesia islands of Sumatra and Java, more than 3,000 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula — and more than 500 miles southeast of Singapore." Washpost

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What! You mean the US Navy did not inform the Washpostian snowflakes of the correct location of the Carl Vinson battle group? For shame Navy! For shame! The self-obsession and self-importance of the journos continues to spiral upward toward Olympos. Ho hum.

On a more serious subject - what is it that the old turcopolier thinks is likely to be in the prospect for a new Korean War?

Well, pilgrims, close observation of Trump and Pence leads me to believe that nothing that goes BOOM will happen very soon. It seems to me that they are going to wait for a bit to see if China will solve the nuclear weapons/ballistic missile dilemma that will soon face the US. How long will they wait? Holding my finger in the air to catch the direction of the breeze I would say - at least until late May. How's that for a SWAG?

Why? Well, they want to "give peace a chance," i.e., see if they can finesse this actual problem without having to fight. If that does not prove possible, and I think it will not be possible, they will take military action.

Why won't a negotiated solution work? !- China is not terrible interested in negotiating on our behalf . The North Koreans under their fat kid boss are still Asian Communists. Why would the Chinese relish the idea of helping us against the Koreans? Why? 2 - The spoiled brat fat kid does not really understand just how much devastation the US can wreak upon his "honey bucket" of a country if it sets itself on that path. 3 - Neither do Trump and Pence. Trump has watched a lot of movies and Pence has a son who is a USMC junior aviator. Great military thinkers they probably are not.

So, what is the probable future (60% maybe?) IMO by the end of May we have the possibility of three aircraft carrier battle groups being in the Sea of Japan. That would make available the carriers' three embarked air wings with all the various ordnance on board as well as on board replenishment ships. There would also be the assets provided by the ships of the aircraft carriers' screens. These would be some combination of cruisers, destroyers and frigates, all of whom would be missile shooters. Further surrounding these surface ships would be a number of submarines. This truly would be an "armada." To this could be added the weight of US strategic assets, i.e. heavy bombers; B-52s, B-1s and B-2s. These can fly from anywhere in the world directly to their targets. Like the cherry on an ice cream sundae there would also be the artillery and tactical air assets of US/ROK forces in the peninsula.

On the other side of the DMZ we would face the forces of the PDRK. These are considerable. A million men under arms, indoctrinated with anti-ROK feeling, 6,000+ tanks of varying vintage, about the same number of artillery weapons including the fearsome 170 mm rifle nicknamed the Koksan gun. Built in the PDRK, this descendant of the German 88 mm multi-purpose gun was specifically designed to range Seoul from present positions north of the DMZ.

IMO, a general US/ROK onslaught by air and artillery would be unable to neutralize all the PDRK artillery that can range Seoul. A bombardment of the ROK capital might well be accompanied by a general PDRK ground attack across the DMZ.

The result would be general war in and around the Korean peninsula. The casualties and destruction ensuing would probably be the political end of Trumpismo. pl

Comments

"It was supposed to be steaming towards North Korea more than a week ago, an “armada” signaling American resolve. Then it wasn’t.

Now, it seems the USS Carl Vinson may finally be heading north.

“Our deployment has been extended 30 days to provide a persistent presence in the waters off the Korean Peninsula,” Rear Admiral Jim Kilby, the commander of Carrier Strike Group One, said in a message posted on the Carl Vinson’s Facebook page addressed to “families and loved ones” of the personnel on board.

The Carl Vinson, accompanied by a carrier air wing, two guided-missile destroyers and a cruiser, was supposed to have been ordered to sail north after leaving Singapore on April 8. But a week later, the Navy published photos showing it was actually sailing the opposite direction through the Sunda Strait between the Indonesia islands of Sumatra and Java, more than 3,000 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula — and more than 500 miles southeast of Singapore." Washpost

---------------

What! You mean the US Navy did not inform the Washpostian snowflakes of the correct location of the Carl Vinson battle group? For shame Navy! For shame! The self-obsession and self-importance of the journos continues to spiral upward toward Olympos. Ho hum.

On a more serious subject - what is it that the old turcopolier thinks is likely to be in the prospect for a new Korean War?

Well, pilgrims, close observation of Trump and Pence leads me to believe that nothing that goes BOOM will happen very soon. It seems to me that they are going to wait for a bit to see if China will solve the nuclear weapons/ballistic missile dilemma that will soon face the US. How long will they wait? Holding my finger in the air to catch the direction of the breeze I would say - at least until late May. How's that for a SWAG?

Why? Well, they want to "give peace a chance," i.e., see if they can finesse this actual problem without having to fight. If that does not prove possible, and I think it will not be possible, they will take military action.

Why won't a negotiated solution work? !- China is not terrible interested in negotiating on our behalf . The North Koreans under their fat kid boss are still Asian Communists. Why would the Chinese relish the idea of helping us against the Koreans? Why? 2 - The spoiled brat fat kid does not really understand just how much devastation the US can wreak upon his "honey bucket" of a country if it sets itself on that path. 3 - Neither do Trump and Pence. Trump has watched a lot of movies and Pence has a son who is a USMC junior aviator. Great military thinkers they probably are not.

So, what is the probable future (60% maybe?) IMO by the end of May we have the possibility of three aircraft carrier battle groups being in the Sea of Japan. That would make available the carriers' three embarked air wings with all the various ordnance on board as well as on board replenishment ships. There would also be the assets provided by the ships of the aircraft carriers' screens. These would be some combination of cruisers, destroyers and frigates, all of whom would be missile shooters. Further surrounding these surface ships would be a number of submarines. This truly would be an "armada." To this could be added the weight of US strategic assets, i.e. heavy bombers; B-52s, B-1s and B-2s. These can fly from anywhere in the world directly to their targets. Like the cherry on an ice cream sundae there would also be the artillery and tactical air assets of US/ROK forces in the peninsula.

On the other side of the DMZ we would face the forces of the PDRK. These are considerable. A million men under arms, indoctrinated with anti-ROK feeling, 6,000+ tanks of varying vintage, about the same number of artillery weapons including the fearsome 170 mm rifle nicknamed the Koksan gun. Built in the PDRK, this descendant of the German 88 mm multi-purpose gun was specifically designed to range Seoul from present positions north of the DMZ.

IMO, a general US/ROK onslaught by air and artillery would be unable to neutralize all the PDRK artillery that can range Seoul. A bombardment of the ROK capital might well be accompanied by a general PDRK ground attack across the DMZ.

The result would be general war in and around the Korean peninsula. The casualties and destruction ensuing would probably be the political end of Trumpismo. pl