Eloise knew, for sure, that she was sending Daniel into a terrible, probably fatal, situation.

But I wonder if she knew, specifically, that her younger self would shoot him? Or did she think that something else would happen — say, that he would sacrifice himself to save her and the other island inhabitants by setting off the atomic bomb?

If the past can be changed, then maybe she thought that one thing would happen to him, but didn’t foresee that something else would happen to him instead.