Friday, October 6, 2017

Tropical Storm Nate emerged off of Honduras overnight and is beginning to get stronger over the highest oceanic heat content in the Western Caribbean. His center was repositioned by this morning’s recon flight shifting it slightly to the east. Consequently, NHC has shifted their center line track forecast slightly to our east which would be great IF that trend were to continue. A land fall on Gulfport versus a landfall on Port Fouchon/Grand Isle would have very different impacts for us. The latter would bring more surge, winds & rainfall while a storm going farther to our east brings lesser impacts. Let see and hope that trend continues. Even a 30-40 mile shift to our east would make HUGE differences. With the model guidance tightly clustered around the mouth of the river, the next focus becomes the intensity. RIGHT NOW NHC is predicting an 80 mph Cat. 1 at landfall, however, they stress it could be higher. Weatherbell Analytic’s Joe Bastardi believes it will be a strong Cat. 2 or even a Cat. 3 since the upper low currently over the central Gulf quickly pulls to the SW eliminating the wind shear. I like the NHC’s thinking since Nate’s forward speed has increased to 14 mph and that should not allow enough time for him to sit over the warm Gulf eddy north of the Yucatan. Until Nate reaches the Gulf and pulls away from the Yucatan can we see IF rapid intensification begins. I may start the process of closing my shutters later this afternoon IF the next set of model runs keep Nate in our neighborhood. FYI…TWC has Jim Cantore in Gulfport, which means they believe this guidance shift to the east will take the center nearer Gulfport. If you are inside the levee protection (risk reduction) system, I’d hold off on closing up your house since boarding up with plywood is a labor intensive process. We will have time to do that if models shift Nate back to us. Outside the levee protection, you’ll need to take precautions today is rising waters will prevent access on Saturday. For now, we hope the eastern shift continues. Next update around noon. Stay tuned.