Monday

Gov. Rick Scott said he plans to "double-down" on the state’s investment in education — proposing teacher pay hikes as a central part of the 2013 budget he intends to roll out this week.

But with the spending proposal, the Republican governor’s biggest bet may be on a strategy of moving toward the political middle, one that could help his re-election bid next year. Distancing himself from the combative stance that marked his earlier days as governor, Scott’s third budget blueprint will likely reflect an evolving – some say desperate – chief executive, intent on reaching out to old enemies even if it antagonizes his tea party allies.

Scott is expected to include in his full plan a slight boost in public school spending, another modest round of tax breaks, and merit-based pay hikes for state workers who have been mired in a six-year freeze.

The budget, fattened by an improving economy, could spark voters to give Scott a second look – and maybe a second chance at leading Florida.

"In the primaries, run to the right; in the general election, run to the middle," said Senate President Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, summarizing Scott’s emerging tactics.

Scott faces a possible re-election contest with former Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican turned Democrat who campaigned heavily for President Obama last fall.

While Scott may have an edge, with Florida generally leaning Republican in statewide elections, warning signs are there. The GOP last fall lost four congressional seats, five seats in the state House, two seats in the state Senate and failed to oust Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

A governor’s budget proposal is always tinged with politics, but it will be lawmakers who actually craft Florida’s 2013-14 spending plan. Still, House Speaker Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel, said he didn’t think Scott’s teacher pay approach would meet much resistance in a usually more conservative House.

"I don’t know if it’s moving in a direction other than our economy is moving in a positive direction," Weatherford said. "As a result of that, I think the governor wants to prioritize our limited resources in areas where there is the greatest need.

"Everybody is in agreement that teachers need and deserve a pay raise," he said.

But some of Scott’s most conservative allies say they are angered by the governor’s recent moves.

"I think the governor is making a mistake," said Henry Kelley, a leader in the state’s Tea Party Network. "It’s frustrating to see someone who campaigned on accountability now say you should just pump more money into the system. Whether it’s schools or anything else, we should keep doing less in Tallahassee and more at the local level."

Third budget shows shift

Kelley recalled that just weeks after being taking office in 2011, Scott unveiled his first state budget recommendation at a tea party rally 200 miles from the Capitol.

His symbolism, then, coincided with his policies.

Scott proposed cutting $4.6 billion in state spending, slashing almost 9,000 jobs across state agencies, and handing out $1.7 billion in tax reductions.

The biggest budget cuts were in education and corrections, where the state’s teachers’ union and Police Benevolent Association, which represented many prison guards, had campaigned heavily for Scott’s 2010 opponent, Democrat Alex Sink.

But it was around this time Scott’s popularity ratings nosedived.

A stark image of the governor has endured with Floridians. A survey this month by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed only 33 percent of voters approved of Scott’s performance.

While 57 percent of Floridians disapproved of Scott, an alarming sign may be that independent voters rejected Scott by a two-to-one margin in the poll.

"For Scott or anyone to win, you’ve got to get that number with independents up somewhere around 50 percent," said Steve Schale, a Florida Democratic strategist.

"His new budget may help that," Shale added. "You want to at least be able to say, ‘People may not like me personally, but I’m a competent governor.’ "

In announcing his plan to give Florida teachers across-the-board, $2,500 pay hikes, Scott touted Florida’s economic recovery on his watch. Unemployment – now at 8 percent – is down almost three percentage points since Scott was sworn in.

He also said that more than 200,000 private sector jobs have been created.

"We’re doing the right things in our state and we’re going to continue doing the right things," Scott said at a Central Florida middle school, where he was joined by teachers.

Scott added, "Our economy is back on track."

Surplus eases spending decisions

This week’s budget rollout will mark Scott’s first that doesn’t have to take into account a multibillion-dollar shortfall.

Instead, state economists say lawmakers now have a budget surplus of $828.5 million, making spending decisions easier.

Scott is expected to at least meet the 1.1 percent per-student increase in public school spending recommended by the state’s Board of Education, a boost made tougher by projections that 26,746 more students will fill Florida’s classrooms next year at a cost of $172.9 million.

Less certain, however, is whether Scott will embrace a call by educators to pay for $239 million in technology upgrades, $100 million in enhanced security, and a backlog in school maintenance projects.

Universities also expect Scott and lawmakers to endorse replacing a $300 million budget cut last year, while pouring in another $118 million to avoid another round of tuition hikes.

Unlike his first year as governor, Scott is reining-in his demand for tax cuts.

Scott said he wants to continue nibbling away at the state’s corporate income tax – a $2.1 billion levy he has vowed to eliminate. But erasing the tax would prove a big hit to the state treasury.

This week, Scott will ask lawmakers only to expand the current tax exemption on the first $50,000 of income to $75,000 — costing $8 million and removing 2,000 businesses from the corporate tax rolls.

A larger cut he will propose eliminates a requirement that businesses show they have expanded productivity by at least 5 percent to draw a sales-tax exemption on equipment purchases.

Scott wants to exempt manufacturers’ equipment purchases completely from the sales tax. It would remove $57.5 million from the state treasury in its first year on the books.

Gaetz, the Senate president, said he welcomed the more robust revenue picture but cautioned, "There is very little new money."

"Everything is a trade-off," he added. "There are a lot of people in the Capitol who think we have so much more money that they have spent it 12 times."

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