Wall Street wowed by Apple's iPhone sales, cautious on iPad

Apple's record-breaking quarterly results -- particularly a surge in iPhone sales -- impressed analysts on Wall Street this week, even though gross margins and iPad sales did not meet expectations.

Apple on Monday reported record revenue of more than $20 billion, thanks to its highest-ever iPhone sales, hitting 14.1 million for the quarter. Apple also sold its most Macs ever in a three-month span: 3.89 million.

But initial Wall Street reaction to Apple's earnings was negative, with investors apparently disappointed by lower-than-expected iPad sales of 4.19 million, and gross margins of 36.9 percent. The immediate after-hours trading action sent the stock plummeting more than 6 percent.

Despite those number missing expectations, Apple still blew away analyst expectations with $4.31 billion in net quarterly profit, and $4.64 earnings per share. Profits increased more than 70 percent year over year.

Analysts on Wall Street said Tuesday they remain positive regarding Apple stock, citing the strength of the iPhone 4, particularly going into the holiday season.

Oppenheimer

Analyst Yair Reiner said the fact that Apple's strong quarter "came almost exclusively on the strength of the iPhone 4" was "disappointing." Still, he sees the stock as attractive as ever, and recommends that investors take advantage of the buying opportunity.

"Disappointment, thy name is expectation," he said.

Reiner noted that the iPad had a strong quarter, outselling the Mac. But that wasn't enough, as Wall Street analysts expected Apple to hit around 4.8 million sales for the three-month span.

"Notwithstanding the short-term vicissitudes of the expectations game, Apple clearly has a winner on its hands," Reiner wrote. "We continue to expect an extremely strong December quarter from the devices thanks to a combination of holiday seasonality; channel expansion in the US (Walmart, Target, AT&T, Verizon), and international distribution beyond its current 27-country footprint."

He sees Apple achieving $24.2 billion in revenue in the first fiscal quarter of 2011, with $5.42 in earnings per share. For all of fiscal 2011, Reiner has estimated $86.5 billion in revenue and $19.01 earnings per share.

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster said AAPL stock may pull back on Tuesday, but he believes people should buy the stock because investors will gain optimism over the next three months as Apple's growth continues. Piper Jaffray has increased its price target to $429, from $390.

"Apple reported sales of 14.1m iPhones but indicated that it ended the quarter with a "sizable backlog," 3.3m units (~3 wks) of inventory," Munster wrote. "If the company had been at 4-5 weeks of inventory (normal) the incremental 1.65m units would imply sales of 15.5-16m iPhones."

Looking ahead, he sees Mac unit growth increasing 15 percent to 20 percent in fiscal year 2011. An anticipated launch of the iPhone on Verizon would also add another $2 billion in revenue per quarter, he said.

JP Morgan

Though shares of AAPL may drop Tuesday, analyst Mark Moskowitz expects the "phenomenon" to "pass quickly." He noted that the iPad's 4.19 million sales disappointed, but only due to "elevated" investor expectations after the device had such a strong debut.

JP Morgan had forecast iPad sales of 4.7 million units, while Wall Street consensus was about 4.5 million. Moskowitz said he thinks Apple should have stronger sales next quarter, with wider distribution.

He also said that the iPhone momentum is "likely just getting started," as Apple struggled to meet consumer demand during the quarter. The 14.1 million sales blew away his estimate of 11 million units, as well as Wall Street consensus of 11.3 million handsets.

Morgan Stanley

Though gross margins decreased from 41.8 percent in the year-ago quarter, the drop was more than offset by iPhone sales, analyst Katy Huberty said. She has increased her price target to $375, up from $346.

"The combination of the free bumper program (100-200 bps) and product ramp/yields hit iPhone gross margins sequentially," she wrote. "Both were considered in guidance but not fully baked into consensus expectations. Importantly, iPhone 4 maintains a gross margin profile well above corporate average and we expect iPhone margins to return to the low 50% range as these headwinds are mitigated over the next few quarters."

Needham & Company

Like other analysts, Charlie Wolf has expressed concern that his 2011 forecast for iPad shipments could be too aggressive. He has called for sales of 18 million units next year, but noted the iPad could miss that target if the tablet market grows slower than expected.

Still, he said Monday's reported iPad sales are not a cause for concern.

"The one disappointment, if it can be called that, was iPad shipments," he said. "These came in at 4.2 million, up from 3.3 million in June. While the Street was expecting a higher number, it's instructive to note that iPad shipments have exceeded Mac shipments in just two quarters."

Kaufman Bros.

Apple's strong quarter came with caveats, analyst Shaw Wu said Tuesday. The company again beat Wall Street's expectations, but the way it arrived at the numbers was not expected.

Wu said Wall Street's overzealous iPad forecasts reminds him of overestimated iPhone assessments based on initial demand of each product launch. He said forecasters relied too strongly on overseas supply chain production capacity data.

"We continue to believe in the long-term potential for iPad and are modeling 23 million units for [calendar] 2011 (from 26 million)," Wu wrote. "So far, it doesn't appear to be cannibalizing Mac sales but as Steve Jobs said, it represents a new paradigm for computing and is likely to impact notebook PC sales longer term."

Gleacher & Company

Analyst Brian Marshall said the initial 6 percent drop in AAPL stock is a knee-jerk reaction to investors who are "getting caught up in the details and tied around the axle." He said investors should take a more "holistic" approach to the company.

"For example, if the company's overall top-line and bottom-line results surpass whisper expectations, we believe the stock should trend higher (not lower) as is the case this quarter," he said.

Gleacher & Company has raised its price target for AAPL stock to $355, up from $345. He sees big things on the horizon, including a Verizon-compatible CDMA iPhone, as well as continued expansion of the iPad.

RBC Capital Markets

Analyst Mike Abramsky sees Apple's gross margins improving, particularly as scale of the iPhone 4 continues to expand. He noted that estimated margins on the iPhone 4 are about 45 percent, compared with margins of between 55 percent and 60 percent with its predecessor, the iPhone 3GS.

Given Monday's results and future product cycles anticipated from Apple, Abramsky has lowered his forecast for gross margins in fiscal year 2012 to 40.1 percent, down from 40.8 percent.

As for the iPad, even though Apple's touchscreen tablet didn't meet his expectations of 5 million sales in the quarter, Abramsky noted that the device is still far outselling the initial iPhone launch in 2007 after its first six months.

He has increased his price target for AAPL stock to $365, up from the previous prediction of $350.

Comments

That's insane - I remember that when iPad started earlier this year, people thought apple would sell 2-3 million in 2010. They sold over 7 million already and will probably sell around 10 million by the end of the year. How can this be something called not meeting the expectations!!

As soon as any other company can do (or better) what Apple has done in the past 10 years, AND when these 6 or so analysts ? to hell with these analysts - Apple is a wonderful company with numbers to match!

If not for saying junk, these folks won't have a job. I think we could all go back just a short time, and most of these analyst had Apple at $45.00 per share. They are only smart enough to get some folks attention when they open their months, allowing them to stay employed - somehow?

Many years ago, (God, maybe 12, 15) I spoke at a small conference and said Apple would overtake MS and that they would be HUGE ? I was right then and I'm right now. This is just the start for Apple, they will get BIGGER folks.

That's insane - I remember that when iPad started earlier this year, people thought apple would sell 2-3 million in 2010. They sold over 7 million already and will probably sell around 10 million by the end of the year. How can this be something called not meeting the expectations!!

If they sold about 1.3M per month before the holiday quarter and in a non-launch quarter, so I would think 1.5M to 2.25M per quarter for the rest of calendar year 2010 isn?t out of the question. That would be 4.5M to 6.75M more for their 7+ Million, or at least 11.5M for the year.

For a new product that only went on sale in April that is great. I think that trumps the original iPhone, and is probably more than all tablets that have ever been sold before it.

If they sold about 1.3M per month before the holiday quarter and in a non-launch quarter, so I would think 1.5M to 2.25M per quarter for the rest of calendar year 2010 isn?t out of the question. That would be 4.5M to 6.75M more for their 7+ Million, or at least 11.5M for the year.

For a new product that only went on sale in April that is great. I think that trumps the original iPhone, and is probably more than all tablets that have ever been sold before it.

The iPad is the only tablet computer on the market currently, it has no competition. The iPad numbers are solid, no other company will sell their tablets if and when they ever come to the market. These analysts are expected to have something negative to say about AAPL at all times. I hear Microsoft keeps losing high profile executives while Ballmer is running that ship into the ground

That's insane - I remember that when iPad started earlier this year, people thought apple would sell 2-3 million in 2010. They sold over 7 million already and will probably sell around 10 million by the end of the year. How can this be something called not meeting the expectations!!

They're idiots. They make predictions, then go on about how Apple's sales didn't meet their expectations. Then they expect people who do real work for a living to buy and sell based on whether or not the numbers match their guesses. What a messed up system.

Something none of these douche bags have taken into consideration is the huge number of people holding out for a non-AT&T iPhone and the second gen. iPad with cameras (like me).

But of course, you can't quantify that on a spreadsheet and make pretty calculations that make you look smart, can you?

Cautious on iPad? Really?? Come on, this thing is a complete success. Sales have far exceeded initial expectations and it's currently the only viable "tablet" out there. 7 million sold already.

i think the question is were sales lower than anticipated due to production or have most people that will get an ipad already got them? christmas should be good because ipads are priced right for gifts. next year will be telling if ipad will be ongoing success or not.

I don't get where the iPad expectations came from. They were building 1 million/month, in early sept it was reported that they just expanded production to 2 million/month. How were they expected to have sold significantly more than 4 million?

They sold 4.1 million mostly selling them just in the apple store and select best buys. They have been expanding to the rest of best buy, walmart, target, AT&T, Verizon, etc. It was also reported in september that Apple was going to further increase production to 3 million/month this month. how does that kind of growth get spun into a negative?

Did you remove the quotes from the article or post this in multiple places? Either way, that guy is just pandering to an anti-Apple crowd. He should work for politicians who want to run smear campaigns.

I don't get where the iPad expectations came from. They were building 1 million/month, in early sept it was reported that they just expanded production to 2 million/month. How were they expected to have sold significantly more than 4 million?

They sold 4.1 million mostly selling them just in the apple store and select best buys. They have been expanding to the rest of best buy, walmart, target, AT&T, Verizon, etc. It was also reported in september that Apple was going to further increase production to 3 million/month this month. how does that kind of growth get spun into a negative?

Yeah, I don't get that either. Actually, I do. It comes from Wall Street. The analysts know absolutely nothing. You have a company that has ramped up manufacturing and supply chain management extensively over the past ten years, and they STILL cannot make enough iPhones and iPads. How in the heck can that be "not meeting expectations?"

Obviously I don't know what's going to happen today or over the next few days, but keep in mind that the "big drop" overnight did nothing except erase the gains in stock price over the past two days. That's right, AAPL surged 6% in the two days before the announcement. So falling back to a price of 300 (an all time high, reached for the first time last week) isn't exactly a crash. Wall Street adjusts expectations very quickly, so their "disappointment" is relative to their expectations yesterday, not their expectations from two months ago.

In other words, don't sweat it. If Apple continues to perform, the investment will continue to pay off.

Obviously I don't know what's going to happen today or over the next few days, but keep in mind that the "big drop" overnight did nothing except erase the gains in stock price over the past two days. That's right, AAPL surged 6% in the two days before the announcement. So falling back to a price of 300 (an all time high, reached for the first time last week) isn't exactly a crash. Wall Street adjusts expectations very quickly, so their "disappointment" is relative to their expectations yesterday, not their expectations from two months ago.

In other words, don't sweat it. If Apple continues to perform, the investment will continue to pay off.

That?s a good point. It?ll open up over $300 and likely rise today do the after hours drop. For long term investors it?s a non-issue, and if you are short term investor you should have accounted for this very likely eventuality.

Oh, me too. It's a prime example of a headline being the only thing a person needs to "know." it just provides grist for the mills of that slew of Apple haters who take it as proof the iPad is a failure, to be downed by that mythical slew of tablets about to descend at any moment.

Wow these so-called "analysts" sure have short-term memories... 6 months ago they were the same ones saying the iPad would only sell 2 ~ 5 million units total in 2010, while most of us here were saying "No way! 10 million easy, if they can produce them…"

Now 4.2 million sold in ONE quarter is a "disappointment"?? (Seriously, 1.4 MILLION units a MONTH only a few months after releasing them? They should be saying WOW, not "awwww")….. And with the stock having increased by $60 a share (over 25%) or so in the same period…. I'm sorry, I'm trying really hard to see the "disappointment" in all that, and I'm just…. not.

Record Mac sales, record (and totally unexpected) iPhone sales, a NEW product selling over a million units a month and climbing, record overall revenue ($20 BILLION in three months!!) and record profits…… hell, even their new "hobby" device, the Apple TV sold a 1/4 million in its first month or so... what do these people need to say "yeah, cool, it's all good!" ???

I stopped paying much attention to their noise a long time ago… Apple is probably one of the best stocks on the market today, if you can afford to buy in now.

That?s a good point. It?ll open up over $300 and likely rise today do the after hours drop. For long term investors it?s a non-issue, and if you are short term investor you should have accounted for this very likely eventuality.

I'm not sure what it opened it, but the early low was 300.0 and it's already back up to 305.32 after 5 minutes, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it end up closing up for the day.

Wow these so-called "analysts" sure have short-term memories... 6 months ago they were the same ones saying the iPad would only sell 2 ~ 5 million units total in 2010, while most of us here were saying "No way! 10 million easy, if they can produce them?"

Now 4.2 million sold in ONE quarter is a "disappointment"?? (Seriously, 1.4 MILLION units a MONTH only a few months after releasing them? They should be saying WOW, not "awwww")?..