Investment Strategy Report of China Aviation Industry, H2 2007

Published: June/2007

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Pages: 20

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Enterprisewide

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In 2006, 70 percent of China's FTK came from international and regional cargo and 30 percent was from domestic cargo. During the 11th five-year plan period (2006-2010), China's average annual GDP growth will be expected to reach 9.13%. In the next five years, the average annual growth of China's RTK will hit 15.5%. From 2006 to 2010, the number of airplanes will see an average annual growth of 11.5%. In addition, aircraft movements will continue to maintain a fast-growing trend at an average annual growth rate of 13-14%.

Statistics of China's RTK Growth, 1986-2006

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In 2006, 70 percent of China's FTK came from international and regional cargo and 30 percent was from domestic cargo. During the 11th five-year plan period (2006-2010), China's average annual GDP growth will be expected to reach 9.13%. In the next five years, the average annual growth of China's RTK will hit 15.5%. From 2006 to 2010, the number of airplanes will see an average annual growth of 11.5%. In addition, aircraft movements will continue to maintain a fast-growing trend at an average annual growth rate of 13-14%.

1. Air transportation demand 1.1 Fast growth of aviation industry1.2 Development of air tourism 1.3 Development of air freight 1.4 Forecast of aviation demand, 2006-20101.5 Development of airport business

2. External environment analysis 2.1 Long-term appreciation trend of RMB has been established 2.2 Oil price keeps stable, but has a falling trend

Statistics of China's RTK, 1986-2006 Relativity between GDP growth and RTK growthRelativity between RPK and growth of tourist numberGrowth of residents' incomeGrowth of tourist number after 2002Proportion of RPK to all modes of transportation RPK Growth Yen appreciation promoted growth of Japanese outbound travels Growth of China's RPK and outbound tourists Growth of total number of domestic residents outbound for public and private affairs Growth comparison of passenger and cargo throughput of international routes between domestic airlines and foreign airlines Relativity between foreign trade and air cargo growth Total FTK of three big airlines Forecast of China's RTK growth Forecast of transport capacity growth of China's aviation market Trend of exchange rate of RMB against USD Comparison of trend of domestic aviation oil price, Singapore oil price and TPC Airlines' sensitivity to RMB appreciation, 2007 Forecast of crude oil and retail price of domestic aviation oil Analysis of aviation oil sensitivity (supposed the average price of aviation oil falling RMB100 per ton)Status of airport assets injection