Syracuse's tournament run was the result of several unlikely occurances. At the start of the tournament, they had a 1.60% chance of winning the region. What happened?

The favorite in their region (Michigan State) was upset in the first round by Middle Tennessee (a 4.7% probability). This increased Syracuse's odds of making the final four to 11.6%, which increased to 13.0% after no upsets of significance in the second round.

Syracuse and Gonzaga in the sweet sixteen were a near-even match. My ratings favored Gonzaga slightly (59%), but Syracuse won and increased their chance of reaching the final four to 25.8%.

Syracuse was a heavy underdog to Virginia in the elite eight (25.8% chance of winning) but came back from 16 points down to win.