A Healthy Ace Is a Tradable One

By

Jared Diamond

Feb. 12, 2013 8:56 p.m. ET

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla.—The Mets' future rests on Johan Santana's fragile left shoulder. And his elbow. And his right ankle. And his lower back. And any other part of the body that has kept—or could keep—Santana off the mound.

But when it comes to the Mets these days, the word "future" rarely refers to the next eight months. After all, the Mets probably won't contend for the playoffs this season, even if their ace makes all of his starts.

ENLARGE

Johan Santana will be a valuable trade commodity, if he can stay healthy.
Getty Images

So why do the Mets need a healthy Santana? Because a healthy Santana means a tradable Santana.

Unless the Mets exercise their $25 million option for 2014 (and they won't), Santana will become a free agent at the season's end. That makes Santana a valuable commodity on the trade market, and the Mets could command a package of top prospects for his services before the July 31 deadline.

Of course, that strategy hinges on one crucial factor—whether Santana can stay healthy.

"I'm more about my health than anything," said Santana, whose contract includes a no-trade clause. "What's going to happen in the future, I don't really know. I've just got to stay healthy and see what the future will bring."

Santana proved last season that when his body allows it, he can still dominate. He had a 2.38 earned-run average through his first 11 starts, culminating in his much-dissected 134-pitch no-hitter.

Unfortunately, that body hasn't cooperated much lately. Santana missed all of 2011 after undergoing shoulder surgery and then spent 2012 battling various injuries.

Following the no-hitter in June, his performance and health crumbled. The Mets eventually cut short Santana's season in mid-August, after he put up an 8.27 ERA over his final 10 outings. On Tuesday, Santana revealed that the Mets had planned to shut him down early all along. They didn't deem him equipped to handle a full workload.

"It ended up in a way that I didn't want it to," Santana said. "But at the same time, I knew at that point I needed a rest."

Santana insists that he feels healthy, that he will go through a typical spring training with no restrictions. For the first time in years, he didn't spend the off-season rehabbing an injury. The Mets maintain that all of the extra work last winter to recover from the shoulder procedure ultimately led to Santana breaking down.

Still, the Mets likely will take precautions with their brittle left-hander. Though manager Terry Collins said Tuesday he intends to start the 33-year-old Santana on opening day, Santana likely can't throw 215-plus innings anymore, like he did for five straight seasons from 2004 through 2008, the prime of his career.

And though Santana wants to pitch for his native Venezuela in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, the Mets probably will ask him not to.

"Johan's the ultimate pro," Collins said. "One of the things that he said is that the rest did him good."

Assuming Santana stays healthy, the Mets will spend the next six months trying to figure out how to handle the trade deadline. They went through a similar situation in 2011 with outfielder Carlos Beltran, and then managed to swing him to the San Francisco Giants for right-hander Zack Wheeler, a top pitching prospect.

Considering the current state of the Mets' outfield—both in the majors and minors—they probably could use some reinforcements. Of course, if the Mets make a surprise run at the postseason, they could benefit from a healthy ace.

Santana, meanwhile, understands the Mets' plight. It doesn't appear to bother him. He just wants to stay healthy, for a change. Everything else will work itself out.

"There are a lot of things in this game you can't control," Santana said of his future. "That's one of them."

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