Las Vegas Bowl

Can’t unveil the Hotline’s postseason projections without a quick refresher on the new postseason structure.

The top four teams in the nation, as determined by the 13-member selection committee, will participate in the College Football Playoff. This season, the Rose and Sugar bowls will host the semifinals on Jan. 1, with the title game at Cowboys Stadium.

If the Pac-12 champion doesn’t qualify for a berth in the playoff: It will be placed (by the committee) in one of the three non-contract bowls — the Fiesta, Cotton or Peach — with preference given to geography and matchup.

It’s also possible that a second team from the conference will be deemed worthy of playing in the Dec. 31/Jan. 1 triple-headers. Heck, the league could send three to the festivities. (Unlike the BCS, there’s no cap on the number of participants from a single conference.)

The bowl-eligible teams that aren’t involved in the Big Six bowls will be available, as usual, for the Pac-12’s contracted games.

The parity that produced nine teams with at least six wins — and arguably the deepest, toughest conference in the country — was the same eat-your-own parity that 1) kept the league from generating an undefeated or 1-loss team and 2) limited the league to one team in the Bowl Championship Series.

You could make a fairly strong case that the Pac-12 would be better off with a second team in the BCS and only seven or eight bowl-eligible teams.

Oregon in the Orange/Sugar vs. Oregon State in the Hawaii and/or Arizona in the AdvoCare and/or Washington State in the New Mexico?

That’s probably a pretty good trade.

(No offense to the Beavers, Wildcats and Cougars and their dedicated fans. But the exposure, prestige and cash infusion that accompany a BCS at-large berth are enormously important.)

The muddled middle remains, with five teams bunched together at 4-2/3-3 in league play. But the Rose Bowl race gained clarity after Stanford held off the Ducks.

The Cardinal needs help to reach the national championship: It must win out (USC, Cal, Notre Dame, Pac-12 title game) … and it needs several of undefeated teams to lose … and it needs Utah to start winning.

The Utes haven’t won since the Oct. 12 upset — to be fair: their schedule hasn’t exactly been soft — and are steadily undermining Stanford’s resume.

If the Cardinal gets into a run-off with other one-loss teams for the second spot in NCG and pollsters start comparing losses, it could be problematic. Stanford would need a sizable advance in the computers to offset a likely deficit in the polls.

But there’s a long way to go between here and there, especially given the limited chances for Ohio State and Florida State to lose.

(Alabama has two difficult games remaining: The Iron Bowl, which is on the road, and the SEC championship.

(Then again, Stanford could have an Auburn problem if the Tigers run the table and are involved in a one-loss fight for the second spot in the title game.)

The Pac-12 is wrapping up negotiations with existing and new bowl partners for the cycle of games that begins in ’14 and coincides with the arrival of the College Football Playoff.

Sources told the Hotline that everything should be finalized by the end of the month, with announcements in early June.

The contracts are six years (longer than in the past).

Before we get to specifics of the lineup, let’s address a few big-picture matters relevant to all the major conferences:

*** The commissioners have been more involved than in past negotiations because of the prevailing sentiment that tweak to the bowl system (above and beyond the four-team playoff) are needed.

As one source said: “It’s a good time to re-examine the landscape and the financial model.”

Ticket guarantees will almost certainly be reduced so that schools aren’t on the hook for thousands of tickets they can’t possibly sell, especially at full price (the growth of the secondary market has changed the bowl ticket dynamics).

* Had planned to write and post this Friday morning, then lost my appetite (for everything) with the news of the elementary school shooting in Connecticut. Now here we are, a few hours before the Arizona-Nevada kickoff …

The Pac-12 is participating in eight bowl games, the most in conference history.

(Granted, it’s easier to send eight when you have 12 and everyone beats up on three … well, almost everyone.)

Its teams are substantial favorites in five games (New Mexico, Kraft, Sun, Rose and Fiesta) and substantial underdogs in only one (Las Vegas).

What’s a reasonable expectation?

Based on matchups and circumstances, the conference should win six of the eight. Anything less than five would be considered a major disappointment.

Major developments on top with Oregon and fair-to-middling developments on the bottom with Utah.

The Ducks are big USC fans this week: They need the Barkley-less Trojans to beat Notre Dame and open a spot in the National Championship Game.

But even if Oregon doesn’t reach the NCG, it would be an attractive BCS at-large candidate at 11-1. (More on that below.)

Meanwhile, Utah’s loss (at home) to Arizona eliminated the Utes from the postseason – another reminder that the Pac-12 isn’t the MWC — and means the conference will have eight eligible teams.

That’s eight teams for seven contracted bowls.

The following projections are based on three assumptions (because I have to assume something): Stanford beats UCLA twice and wins the conference; Oregon wins the Civil War; and Arizona wins the Territorial Cup.

UCLA’s situation complicates matters: The Bruins, who have clinched the South, are much more attractive if they beat Stanford on Saturday than if they lose to the Cardinal twice in six days (which is the assumed scenario here: I think Stanford will find a way to win this week and then finish things off at home in the title game).

*** Second in my four-part series on Pac-12 football at the halfway point. All-conference team/awards coming later today, along with an item on the Pac-12 Networks …

The Pac-12, which sent seven teams into the postseason in 2011, should have no trouble equaling that figure and could very well surpass it. Oregon has already qualified, four others are one win away and, ahem, everyone is eligible.

In fact, according to my scientific calculations, the league will have nine bowl-eligible teams.

(Method of calculation: Write down current record; look at upcoming schedule; assess prospects for each game; consider the unexpected; tally up final record; slot into available bowls. Verrrrrrry scientific.)

How can nine teams be bowl-eligible?

Simple. I heaped loss upon loss on WSU, Utah and Colorado, which might have been a mistake in the case of the Utes.