The official sports predictions blog of Joshua Huffman, freelance writer who is publisher of the "NFL Predictions against the Spread" series. Blog specializes in NFL predictions from myself and links to other writers' predictions. Occasionally will do predictions for other sports. Check left side bar for more categorized blogs.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The New England Patriots and Tom Brady had 517 yards of passing offense in Week 1. The San Diego Chargers surrendered 39 passing yards to Donovan McNabb. What gives this week in a potential AFC Championship preview?

The early spread on this game is Patriots (-6.5). Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Cooper's Pick and Injury Reports from covers.com as of September 14, 2011. Always keep yourself updated with injury lines because they'll unexpectedly change throughout the week.

#1: Injuries
The Patriots have a wide range of injuries that include two players on IR, five out indefinitely and five who are questionable. Players include C Dan Koppen, RB Kevin Faulk and DE Brandon Deaderick. Check the injury reports throughout the week for updated information.

The Chargers are also banged up. WRs Vincent Brown and Patrick Crayton are both questionable. They also lost DE Luis Castillo after he suffered a fractured tibia against the Minnesota Vikings.

#2: Preparation and/or Rest
The Chargers had an extra day of preparation and/or rest after the Patriots played on Monday Night Football.

#3: Home-field advantage
The Patriots haven't lost a regular-season home game since 2006. However, they have lost twice during the postseason so they're not invincible.

#4: Norv Turner vs. Bill Belichick
I like Bill here.

#5: Patriots vs. Chargers: 2010
The Chargers fell to 2-5 when the Patriots enjoyed a 23-20 victory in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. The Chargers actually dominated this game as they had a 363-179 advantage in total yardage.
However, the Chargers lost the turnover battle 4-0 and Kris Brown missed a field goal at the end that would have tied it. Neither team could run. They combined for 89 rushing yards on 41 carries in that game. Brady only threw for 159 yards.

Final Predictions:
The Chargers have one of the NFL's most-talented teams. The problem is that they're still making boneheaded mistakes. Percy Harvin had a 103-yard kickoff return to begin the game. The Chargers out-gained the Vikings 407-187 and had 21 more first downs yet needed a late drive to steal the victory.

That's the Chargers under Norv Turner. No. 1 offense and no. 1 in 2010 yet they're barely over .500. They'll keep it close but lose in the end.

Against the Spread:San DiegoChargers (+6.5)Straight: New England Patriots 24, San Diego Chargers 20