Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Quinnipiac: Guess what - Ted is still in the low 40s.

This Quinnipiac poll simply asks the straight up questions about support and favorables, so we don't get to see how anyone's mind has changed on the issues, but what's the point? We're a week out.

So what were we able to learn? They confirm what we saw in the Ohio Poll - partisans have largely decided and are leaning strongly to their respective candidates.

Strickland has surprisingly shrunk his deficit among Independents from the last poll, but considering the saturation of the airwaves thanks to Our Future Ohio, I guess I shouldn't be that shocked. His lead among Indies mirrors what we saw in the Ohio Poll, which is a good thing - up between 5 or 6.

If you look at the CNN exit poll in 2008, where Obama won Ohio 52-47 under a Democratic wave, percentage-wise we saw partisan results much like what we see today, but with Obama winning Independents by 8. If Kasich can keep even half of his lead among Independents, we should be in good shape. Considering Strickland's favorables among Independents are still absolutely awful - only 38% have a favorable opinion - it's hard to see how he can pull enough away from Kasich in the last week.

Overall, if we combine Quinnipiac with the most recent Ohio Poll we get a Kasich lead of about 4 points and the incumbent sitting at 45%. With a week to go, and what the Ohio Poll said is a 12 point enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans, that isn't good news for the Governor. Nor is early voting that shows Democrats not getting near the support they need to hold onto the Governor's mansion.

Or think about it this way.

Would you want to be in the Governor's position? He's an incumbent Governor with underwater approval numbers who is stuck at 45 in the RCP average with 7 days to go and the enthusiasm gap massively against him.

Make no mistake. Any optimism you see from the left is simply a fabrication or sheer ignorance of the reality of their situation.

2 comments:

Here's you in the last Quinny poll post you wrote:"Will Independents change their mind in these last two weeks? Well, considering only 16% of them think the economy is getting better I think the chances are slim to none.

One week later, Quinny shows an OVER TWENTY POINT SWING among Independents. So what do you say? Essentially the same thing you said last week! Amazing.

You don't cherry pick?"Overall, if we combine Quinnipiac with the most recent Ohio Poll we get a Kasich lead of about 4 points and the incumbent sitting at 45%."

So, we're just going to ignore the CNN/Time Poll last week? Of course you are, because if you include that Strickland's average is up to 46%. Kasich's 48%.

You whistle past the fact that ever since they went to a likely voter model, Quinnipiac has been a constant outlier, but even it still shows Kasich losing 11 points of his lead in a little over a month. It also is using a likely voter turnout model used once by the Ohio Poll, and then quickly rejected.

And even under their revised model, the Ohio Poll is predicting a general election turnout of sef-identified Republicans at 47%? That's unprecedented for ANY Party in Ohio in ANY wave. And pretty hard to imagine happening given, again, that registered Democrats make up 10% more of the early vote than Republicans.

You whistle past that Kasich is now under 50% in the only poll that's had him at or above it consistently. You ignore Brown's comments about Strickland clearly having momentum going into the election since September.

You are in denial. Stuck at 45 in RCP? He's been going up, not stuck. Geez, do you even LOOK at RCP's graph anymore? A WEEK AGO, you said he was STUCK at 42%! LOL.u

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