Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: Playoff Rooting Guide

I hate the Lakers. And despite the number of times I’ve been told that Christians should not hate, I can’t find another word to describe how much I loathe “The Lake Show.” The same goes for the Yankees and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pretty much anytime a powerful team is playing, I am probably going to root for the underdog.

On Monday night, I found myself cheering for the Lakers to win.

I felt dirty (though, the lack of Kobe made it a little less bile inducing), but it was important that I offer my karmic will to the defending champs. It was good for the Thunder. You see, they were playing the Spurs who are fighting for one of those coveted (and difficult to earn) Western Conference playoff spots.

Now, as the All Star Break signifies the end of the first half of the season, the last portion is going to be all about the playoffs. If Oklahoma City continues to play wonderfully, the discussion may even turn to how good the team’s seed will be and whether the team can challenge to play in the Finals. (Okay, think about that for a second…awesome, huh?)

First things first, though. John Hollinger may have them as a virtual lock for the “real” season, but there is still a lot of basketball to play and a plethora of teams with better than decent hopes of making it in. So, after the jump, I offer a primer for Thunder fans preparing for the final stretch of season.

What is the Thunder’s best case scenario?

Dream scenario would involve the Thunder completely hitting their stride and building on the six game winning streak they take into the break. Then, Kobe chooses to finally have that hand surgery he has been putting off for years in hopes of making it back in time for the playoffs. After that happens, Pau Gasol misses some games and the Lakers fall to the middle of the pack. Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to struggle on the road, but also become more vulnerable at home. Boom! Your number one seed Oklahoma City Thunder.

That’s all fun to think about, but what is realistic?

While #1 is theoretically possible, the Thunder are probably looking at #3, if a lot of things go their way, as a realistic objective. That’s probably the true “best case scenario.” While Chris Webber projected them as a 4/5 seed, that too is probably overly optimistic at this point. Just making the playoffs is a win by itself, and until some other teams start to fade, there is always the possibility that OKC will be the team to swoon. Remember, that’s what happened in both seasons the Hornets were here.

Who are the contenders for playoff spots?

The Lakers and the Nuggets are as close to a lock as possible. Barring significant injuries, they will probably be the top two seeds. After that, it’s easier to single out who isn’t competing for the playoffs. Those teams are: Clippers, Kings, Warriors, and Timberwolves. As I write this every other team in the Western Conference is better than .500.

That leaves nine teams jockeying for the other six playoff seeds. As of today, the Thunder are in the middle of the pack. They are 2 1/2 games back of usurping Utah as the #3 seed, and also 2 1/2 games back of falling to #9 in the standings and picking in the lottery.

What can the Thunder do to improve their position?

Primarily, they need to stay healthy. Depth isn’t exactly their strong suit, and *knock on wood* until now they have been pretty lucky. For instance, if Kevin Durant were to go down for an extended period of time, the team would really be hurting for scoring, and he doesn’t really have a back up.

Obviously, if one of the top-3 were to go down, it would put a major dent in the teams chances. That’s true with any team. For Oklahoma City, though, the role players are just as significant. If Nick Collison’s gritty post play, James Harden’s bench scoring, or Thabo Sefolosha’s defensive lock down abilities were to go missing, it is hard to figure out where the the Thunder would be able to make up for the loss.

It is possible that a trade could go down between now and February 18th that could shore up some team weaknesses (outside shooting, post rebounding), but so far, no rumors have involved OKC.

Could anything happen at the trading deadline to give one of the competitors a leg up?

Certainly. At this stage, though, it seems fairly unlikely. Most of the trade chatter appears to be coming from the East with contenders trying to get a leg up in that top-heavy conference.

One rumor that could have an impact on the West, though, has Houston shedding Tracy McGrady’s bloated expiring contract to the Bulls for Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons. If that happens, the Rockets (who have slipped lately) are right back in the thick of the playoff chase.

On the flipside, the Suns seem to be a team that appears to be in “sell mode” despite being a bubble playoff team. If they trade Amar’e Stoudemire before the deadline and get mostly cap relief (which their owner Robert Sarver values more than success) they could be a team to fall out of the competition.

So what teams are we worried about?

My order goes like this:

Dallas - The Mavericks are solid, but probably one piece away from being an actual contender for the conference crown. The odds of them making a deal are long as Mark Cuban really has no intention of giving up anything, and unlike Sam Presti, he doesn’t have the kind of assets that allow a team to get something for nothing. Barring an injury to Dirk Nowitzki, however, they will probably be in the top half of the seeding.

Utah – Jazz coach Jerry Sloan is a stud. The team’s roster looks like it should be completely disfunctional and injuries have been a familiar part of their season. Except, as of today, they are the hottest team in the West. While they have tried to pawn off Carlos Boozer all season, they won’t give him away unless it returns something that helps them now–particularly after their recent success–so expect them to be a lock for the playoffs.

San Antonio – Yeah, the Richard Jefferson trade has been a disaster. Yeah, they are older than dirt. Unfortunately: Yeah, they know how to turn it on when it matters. (Note: They do have the toughest strength of schedule of any playoff contender…so that could wear them down, particularly with their age issues.)

Phoenix - If they fail in gutting the team to save money, it would be tough for the Suns not to make the playoffs. Whether the conventional wisdom that their style of ball can’t win a championship is true or not, it is very successful in the regular season, which is how playoff seeding is determined. Also, they have the easiest strength of schedule of any playoff contender from here on out.

Portland – Sure, they’ve been decimated by injuries to their front court, and the Andre Miller signing hasn’t panned out like they hoped, but they just keep rocking. In fact, the loss of Ron Jeremy Oden and Joel Pryzbilla may have actually helped them since they now have to go small more often and play LeMarcus Aldridge at center. When Brandon Roy comes back, expect them to be very tough.

Houston - With or without a trade for reinforcements, the Rockets have a chance because of their ability to overachieve. They have no true star, but they sure have the Thunder’s number.

Memphis – This is a team long overdue for a chemical implosion–their core consists of a ball hogging guard (O.J. Mayo), a shot craving power forward (Zach Randolph), and a small forward playing for a big contract next Summer (Rudy Gay)–but unless that happens they will remain a contender.

New Orleans – I’m not sure how they have managed to stay in the hunt. With the onus being about getting under the luxury tax, the team has shed player after player in return for guys who have no business playing in the NBA. With Chris Paul you could kind of see that he was making it work, but even now that he’s out for the next month, Darren Collison has done an admirable job running the show. Who’s to say they can’t keep it up?

I’m just watching a random game on t.v. Who do I root for?

Are the Thunder involved? If yes, the Thunder. If no…

Are both teams Eastern Conference? If yes, it doesn’t matter. If no…

Is one of the team’s from the Eastern Conference? If yes, root for the Eastern Conference team. Any loss by a Western Conference team helps Oklahoma City’s chances (unless it’s one of those bottom four teams, in which case it doesn’t really matter). If no…

Is one or both of the teams among this group: Minnesota, Golden State, Sacramento, and/or the Clippers? If yes, root for that team. They aren’t about to climb into the playoff chase (Sacramento has an outside, but improbable chance), so them stealing a win from a contender certainly helps. If no…

Is one of the teams Denver or the Lakers? If yes, cheer them on, then take a shower, or three, afterwards. A scenario where the Thunder surpass either of those teams in the standings would be tough to envision. Therefore, they might as well aide Oklahoma City by knocking off the competition. If no…

Both of the teams are Western Conference playoff contenders? Use your free will.

I really don't get the whole attitude problem from Dalembert either. The only negative thing I ever read was that he wanted more playing time (he was avg. around 25 min/game) and I agreed with him at the time. He's a high energy, long defensive C and I think he could really help this team. Plus, he's a relatively low risk.

If the Thunder do hold off on trading anybody and decide to use their cap space in FA, do you guys think that we sign anybody to a contract longer than 3 years?

I am trying to post a comment about who we want to play in the first round of the the playoffs, but everytime I do, the superstitious, reptilian part of my brain-stem starts screaming "DON'T DO IT!!"

I am going to continue to cheer for the Nuggets if they are playing anyone but the Thunder, cheering against the Edmond of the NBA, and neutrally watching any other game that happens to be on while following our Thunder players twitter feeds. It's a simple life I know....

I agree with that, but waiting a year won't kill anybody, to become a championship contender a team has to have its share of playoff games before it becomes serious.

@justin

my post was related more to Amare than Dalembert, I agree that Dalembert is much less of a head case, my problem with him is that I don't regard him as a good player, I hate his offensive game and his defense is overrated.

Dalembert and Amare are exactly the kind of guys the Thunder don't need, really.

The strength of this group is that everyone works his tail off and covers each other, that's why the team plays great team defense some times, and this begins with Durant being the humble guy he is and all the friendships and stuff.

When you put a known whiner like Amare or Dalembert, making much more money than everyone else, taking minutes away from Green / Ibaka, what happens to that chemistry?

I don't think Amare is changing from a bull fighter into a defensive stopper just because Durant is a cool dude.

I'd love to see something done with Harpring's corpse, but you guys are definitely overreacting. This team was 23-59 last year and is on pace to double that easily with a playoff spot, and you're talking about the window closing?

Let's go with the flow, see if a good scenario shows up, and if it doesn't just roll with what we have, there'll be improvements next off-season, Presti is a smart guy and we have absolutely no reasons to doubt him yet.

@justinI'm in agreement with you. The attitude issues I have no way of gauging. I do that trade, but who knows what the hell Presti is thinking. I actually wonder whether the ownership group is committed enough to the team to spend the dollars necessary when it comes time to do so. If we don't deal Harpring's contract, I'll be even more suspicious. The thought of this team being perennially good but missing its window at a championship because of an unwillingness to go over cap is pretty depressing to think about.

@jdstorm1. You're not getting Amare for expirings and crappy picks. Stop thinking that might be the case.

2. Existing cap space is more valuable than potential cap space that's tied up into an expiring salary. Eric Maynor is the perfect example.

3. No team is trading high draft picks for a bit of cap space. That doesn't happen. Low draft picks, yes. High draft picks, no.

4. Everyone knows this team needs a big. Whether Dalembert is the right guy or not is debatable. If the cost is low enough, I think it would be smart to swing a trade for him; some people believe waiting till the summer would be more prudent to make a move. Both opinions are valid. In the end, none of the opinions matter because only Presti and the FO know what the plan is.

though i know this year is about development, the fact is that at some point we need to acquire a good center. and i see a trade for amare or dalembert as a good starting point, if all we have to give up is expiring contracts and Picks that we stole. for contracts of above average Centers that expire next year, then im all for it.

one of these guy's is more likely to be the missing piece then Ethan "i can't believe i get paid 8 million to stare at cheerleaders" Thomas, or Matt "the name on my insurance check doesn't bother me" Harping.

With lots of teams having cap space next year, i feel like the value of it as an asset reduces, but if we keep some of that space and have big expiring contracts, we are in a better position to keep building our team, and possibly finding the big we need in the draft with a higher pick

Personally, I'm not really into a trade at this juncture unless something unbelievable falls from the sky. I'm not interested in Amare or Dalembert. Dalembert because of his terrible attitude (Philly has been trying to trade him for about 3 years), and Amare because of his terrible defense. He's actually a -4 player per 100 possessions. His offense helps the team very slightly, but his defense makes the team almost 5 points worse per 100 possessions. So why do it? Plus, both guys have been habitual complainers in their careers.

1. Thomas, and harping to Philly for Dalembert and Kapono2. The previously mentioned Amare trade3. something involving expiring's and unimportant picks for Caron Butler and Javale Mcgee4. Other Good Players with 2011 expirings, so they come off the books before we have to pay Durant, and the new CBA

thanks for posting that. I was actually looking at scores the other day and trying to remember who was ahead of us in the standings (when we were tied at 8 or 9). It's getting easier to remember who to cheer for as we climb the ladder, though! go thunda!

@jdstormPhoenix will only deal Amare if he returns significant assets for the future. That's why the two hottest rumors surrounding him right now are Dalembert + Iguodala and Beasley + Wright + Q Rich + 1st rounder. Nothing we offer comes close to those packages.

He's also a risk to not opt out, in which case you're on the hook for $17m next year or you're praying you can swing a trade for equal value.

I Also like the idea of a dalembert trade, However back to the Amare situation. He is essentially in a contract year, with a lot of GM's seemingly indifferent to him, he would need to make this work. But there are enough teams that would do a deal this summer for significant return. like chicago, miami, NY, NJ ect.

Also i think that if he didn't buy into the system, brooks would bench him. so we trade a bench watcher, and an injury contract for another bench warmer with more talent

@KBDon't get me wrong, I'd be happy for KD if he got the nod, and everyone knows he's deserving of a start. But I would understand if Williams got the nod, considering he was voted in as a guard and KD wasn't. And it's not like Deron is a scrub or anything.

I'm still skeptical about Memphis, they don't play defense and rely a ton on their offensive rebounding to be effective offensively. Rudy Gay's playing for a contract, so he'll continue to do well, but I'm not sold on the rest of that roster. Especially the bench. Phoenix is a wildcard depending on the moves they make but Portland made them look silly last night.

@jdstormThis season has been all about player development. Getting the players to buy into a system then executing said system flawlessly. Bringing in Amare may allow the Thunder to win one playoff series they might not have otherwise, but at what cost? Amare getting 30-35 min a night means less playoff experience for Green and Ibaka. It means our switching swarming team defense is at risk of being sabotaged. Dalembert, on the other hand...

So Your not even willing to rent him for a playoff push , then trade him for straight capspace and a high 1st round pick over the summer?

because i would trade to non playing bench players a 1st round pick and 2 2nd rounders for a 15 million trade exception, that much cap space and a top 10 pick. for the horror of renting one of the leagues best big men

yup I wouldn't want him. besides his attitude and his ...hmm... running down the court to rest (defense)... If I remember correctly he wasn't all that impressive when Nash wasn't setting him up (though I may be wrong)

I disliked the lakers when Kobe thought he did something when Shaq won those three titles.....and their fans.

@f5alcontwo things. To some extent undercutting could be blocking out ( I don't like Bowen either). I don't like the Spurs due to the fact that Duncan, though effective, is terribly boring to watch.

I wonder if we can petition the League for a rule change that refs can call Flops and add one team foul for each flop of said players team.... the only exception being drawing a charge if the player is smaller than the person trying to take a charge.. ( I mean no way Nate Robinson really knocks Shaq on his backside if shaq tried to draw a charge.)

@morganI know- I am absolutely loving this. Who do we get? How far will we go? How big a load do other NW Division teams need to lay in their pants thinking how good we will be for years to come. Life is mighty good.

@VegaSome people (me)hate San Antonio because Bowen was a very, very dirty player- Steve Nash with blood streaming from his face comes to mind every time I start to warm to the Spurs, and how he and D. Stern screwed an exciting Suns team out of a trip to the finals. That and they have one of the whiniest homer broadcasting crews in the NBA (Boston, Portland and Denver get honorable mention awards). Beyond that, they are the model franchise that the Thunder and every other young team wants to emulate. Pop is one of my favorite coaches in the league, and if God forbid Brooks gets hit by a bus, he's my #1 replacement pick.

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