The Latest

Thursday, April 24, 2014

It's been weeks since the last broadcast series premiere, but all of a sudden tonight we get two of 'em. Late April is not exactly the time of year when the broadcasters are trotting out their very favorite shows, but ABC co-production drama Black Box and CBS single-camera comedy Bad Teacher will at least have good lead-ins going for them. Grey's Anatomy and Two and a Half Men have each been posting mid-2's ratings of late. Can one of these series retain 80% or more of that lead-in tonight? I happen to think one has a much better chance than the other, but I'll include both shows here... just in case!

As with the March 9 game, "Over" wins if EITHER Black Box OR Bad Teacher goes over the line, while "under" wins if NEITHER one goes over.

Grey's lead-outs (before Scandal's spike) have always had low retention, Sandra Oh leving might keep people watching until the end of the season, but I don't see Black Box getting a 2.0 out of a mid 2s GA.

Bad Teacher seems compatible with 2.5 Men (one is painful, the other looks like too) but it is a single cam, single cam + CBS = fail.

I feel Bad Teacher is a big swing for CBS that could surprise or fail. I think, put in the right situation, it's a show that could succeed, but in April on an off-brand network with an incompatible lead-in... But you never know. Shame CBS didn't try it in fall wedged between HIMYM and 2BG rather than We Are Men.

Black Box feels like a bust. Reminds me of Rake and The Assets. That said, who knows what ABC's expectations are for it? They renewed Mistresses after all.

I see 24 doing very well. Rebooting the series provides a jumping on point for new viewers, the limited series format feels like a point in its favour, and DVRs and on-demand should help people keep up with such a serialised show. I never really watched the show when it originally aired but I plan to watch the revival.

I think Black Box will pull Mistresses-esque numbers, and in the summer that's a good not a bad thing. But when it pulls those summer-like numbers during the season with a Grey's Anatomy lead-in, that's not good. Plus ABC took its sweet time getting the concept of the show across during its promotional period. First it was just a generic drama with no date or time. Then they fill in the scheduling. Then they finally allude to the central conceit. If it took them that long to warm up to the show, I doubt viewers will.

Why did CBS make a post-upfronts pick-up for Bad Teacher if this is how they are going to treat it? Feels like Sony made the show too cheap to pass up and/or haggled hard after Rules of Engagement was canceled and Beverly Hills Cop did not get a pick-up. On paper, Bad Teacher does have a lot of things going for it but CBS clearly smells a stinker. It reminds me of How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) from last year more than Family Tools, but neither of those shows got a season 2.

24 is Fox's high-profile commitment to year-round programming, and I think it's going to pay off. If last year's patterns hold, viewing levels are higher on Mondays so it succeed in raw numbers. And its main competition is female-skewing Bachelorette so neither should damage the other.

Of the two, Bad Teacher feels more likely to make this an over: it's a brand name that only has 30 minutes to shed audience as opposed to Black Box's 60 minutes. And the concept of the show has been easy to sell, neatly summarized in its title, whereas the concept of Black Box is....you know what? I'm not even going to finish that sentence.

The biggest drawback to both of these shows is that Thursday viewing levels are lower relative to other days. So while in True I think Bad Teacher can get there that's not what you are asking. But like last time, we only have to be right once. So...

Black Box: I think the trailer look horrible to be honest and I feel it will be a Do No Harm situation all over again. That being said, the GA lead-in will likely mean it doesn't achieve the same kind of flop raw numbers as The Assets, Killer Women, Mind Games et all. But it will still be a flop. A 1.20 during regular season and sub 1.0 in the summer

Bad Teacher: I am still not over The Crazy Ones being cancelled, sniff. I do feel like this one would have had a decent shot at renewal if scheduled differently but as it is, it just sceams burnoff. I really feel that CBS should have simply give it a summer play after TBBT reruns (aka the net's first or second biggest lead-in) and try to make it work for summer permanently, it would have had a better shot than like this. I am not sure why they even bothered picking it up after the upfronts for this. Anyway, a 1.5 and obviously out. I think if any show will sneak up and get that last renewal will be Friends with Better Lives, which I happen to quite like too.

24: Does absence really makes the heart grow founder? I think this will work and there is a loooot of buzz around here but FOX is making it damn hard to be optimistic about them in general so I don't think it will be close to Under the Dome last year. Your War pages say it would have gotten a 2.21 last year. This year it should be some 10% lower and it's also summer, so maybe I should take some other 15% or so from that, but it sounds too low. So I am just sticking with the 2.21 which would make it a big hit for Fox especially summers.

Still thinking about it but I would advise not to get your hopes up. I don't really want to put in the effort for every single unscripted/burn-off crap, and for the interesting shows it feels like I can pretty much say what I want to say in the Question posts. But maybe I can dream up some abbreviated version.

Person best case worst case cheating time! With the knowledge of the first ratings for both I am going repredict it. I had Black Box: 1.73 average with 4 episode and Bad Teacher: 1.88 average with 4 episodes. Bad Teacher is pretty much in line with my predictions. I'll give it an even 1.9 now with 4 episodes. I was 30% off my premiere prediction for Black Box, so I'll lower it accordingly to 1.23 average with it going 1.5, 1.1, 1.0, 1.2 with 4 episodes.

I don't want to lump over 9 million people together, but Two and a Half Men's audience doesn't seem to pick shows based on critical reception. The critics were all raging about the Crazy Ones at the end of the season, but Two and a Half Men audiences didn't really stay for it. I could see Bad Teacher holding better, but I may be wrong. Grey's Anatomy audiences on the other hand seem to be a lot choosier, so Black Box might go your worst case 1.5->1.0->.8->.9