Eagerness among Central Government employees and pensioners regarding their DA revision appears to be waning out gradually. DA is given on a semi-annual basis to enable government employees put up with the hike in prices of essential commodities. Taking cognizance of rise in prices of 180 essential commodities, Central Government publishes AICPIN (All India Consumer Price Index Number) every month which constitutes the basis for DA computation.

Since eight years we have been forecasting the quantum of hike in DA well in advance. Our experience shows a declining interest among Central Government employees in knowing about their DA revision. Hike in DA percentage is calculated on the basis of the basic salary of an employee. If the basic salary of an employee is Rs.7000, he well get a 5% DA of Rs.350. But if the basic salary is Rs.20000, he will get a 1% DA of Rs.200.

Seventh Pay Commission recommendations have been implemented from January 2016 for all Central Government employees, pensioners and military personnel. The Commission has clearly stated that DA computation as recommended by the Sixth Pay Commission will continue.

DA granted on the basis of Sixth Pay Commission went up by 125% over a period of ten years from January 2006 to December 2015. It should be noted that there was a hike of 10% thrice during this period. The schedule given below clearly gives the semi-annual hike of DA. After the implementation of Seventh Pay Commission, the increase in DA has been meager which explains the declining interest among employees regarding this.

There was no DA for the first half of 2016. For the second half, namely July to December 2016, a paltry sum of 2% DA was granted. Though initially disappointed, things were expected to improve in future.

But the first installment hike of 1% in DA during 2017 sent shock waves across. The Central Government attributed it to the declining AICPIN resulting from reigning in of prices of essential commodities.

Now the question arises regarding the rise in DA for the second half of 2017, namely July to December. In all probability the hike is going to be only 2%. It is our deducement that the present DA will go up from 5% to 7%.