I cannot speak for all Bogleheads, but IMHO one of the main advantages or reasons that asset allocation works (and IPS or plan) is that it removes all "thought" from the process. Examples of "thoughts" might be: - reaction to market drops - reaction to hot stock tip - reaction to doomsday video - sl...

It occurs to me that this problem is not very different from that faced by many Bogleheads. The main issues being time horizon and investor risk tolerance??? Here is my suggestion. If you can't get board to agree, at least it might push their %stock higher than otherwise. Assumption is that the $5mi...

IMHO HELOCs are almost the free lunch "cash" for this type of purchase... I am amazed banks let you carry a zero balance at no cost, so you only pay interest if you purchase, and you only purchase if you can make $.

Sorry this does not answer your question but I was wondering why you are selling apartment buildings which generate income which you have to replace. Could you not 1031 into more attractive real estate assets and use a manager? I expect my real estate to generate sufficient retirement income AND app...

Your post raises quite a few points, of course the following is IMHO and worth what you paid: * Your friend cannot hurt you, irregardless of his advice (which I don't think is necessarily bad)... only your actions/reactions to his "advice" can hurt you. * For me, part of deciding on portfolio alloca...

Bought 2017 Outback. Still very happy but obviously not long enough to be meaningful. I wanted a specific color, engine, package combo that was not common, unlikely to be in anyone's lot and did not want to buy out of state. First dealer tried some strange games so I did not want to purchase from th...

Hi Incendiary, Unless your commitment to Real Estate increases by an order of magnitude, IMHO you will be happier forgetting adding more Real Estate and use the $$$ for Total Stock Market or add some small cap. I will leave the theory of why RE works great for some to others who are more qualified a...

The simplistic answer is to model the two? scenarios over 20 years :wink: Of course the answer will depend upon easy inputs (interest, insurance, tax, commissions); more difficult ones (investment return), and impossible inputs like appreciation rates. However, I highly recommend you doing the exerc...

Like many other replies, my answer would be neither of your choices: However, I choose to do a combo of alternatives to both (1) 2 stocks - too much risk, I would pick total stock market VTI, small cap VB, REIT VNQ and unfortunately international VXUS/DGS. Low cost, passive and pretty much guarantee...

Hi Swaption, Isn't it a bit early to celebrate victory??? :happy If I line up total stock (VTI) vs say vanguard REIT (VNQ) from day following Dr Bernstein post, I think Morningstar says my REITs are still down by ~15% compared to selling all and buying VTI or S&P500. http://quotes.morningstar.com/ch...

Lots of good points made above. IMHO, Real estate decisions are local, down to your choice of condo, building/HOA and street, so your math might well be accurate, I have no way of knowing. However, you asked what you may be missing: Leverage and capital appreciation (very location and even purchase ...

What has worked for me, has been relationships through local real estate meetups. Finding a flipper with great deal creating skills... then there has been plenty for the flipper and some for the note lender :-) I think you can do second, if second + first is less than your Loan to Valuation criteria...

Sorry did not read all posts. However, agree that if you don't have to sell (due to just wanting to move, job loss) for ~10 years you should be OK through the correction which IMHO will definitely come. A lot of this data is available from FRED site( https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/ but ...

Travellight, You might find this calculator useful: https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/inv04?skn=#results I don't know its source but someone posted link on bigger pockets. The good thing is that in the results section you can double-check how your assumptions evaluate to $$$ and you could do vario...

for those of you who invest in real estate - what volatility do you expect in housing prices? for example, i expect the broad stock market can (and has) fall by ~50% in severe crashes. what about real estate? I ask because I am trying to determine how much leverage i could use to buy real estate an...

Hi, I know almost nothing about NYC real estate and my crystal ball is broken, however I do have properties in areas that have graphs that look kinda like this, so am very conscious of real estate cycles and suspect it would be quite difficult to buy with built-in equity (desirable for investment) o...

Congrats on great career, great saving rate and finding Bogleheads decades earlier than me. As you say, this is very much a lifestyle decision. You probably know the following but just in case this adds any value: * General wisdom is not to buy real estate unless you can keep it for at least 5 years...

Hi, I'm no expert, but you didn't seem to get many replies. Here are some random thoughts: Consider the two extremes: Zero Commercial Real Estate: If I am understanding correctly, you want to generate $100k+ retirement income in your 50s from your expected portfolio of $2.2m (not counting beachfront...

Judging by my non-Cleveland ratios, it would be a definite sell and take advantage of no capital gains. I assume 2009/2010/2011/2012 to now, to be the highest appreciation I am ever likely to see and assume ~25% of that rate going forward: e.g. 12% down to 3% for ROI comparisons to other investments...

My 2c is that of course I can't assess the stupidity or irrationality... as the outcome will all depend upon your execution. Finding out what you don't know that-you-don't-know will be key... so I guess how you internalize the advice you receive will be a good indicator :-) IMHO there were quite a f...

IMHO analysis like this should be done with numbers. The difficulty is that numbers like appreciation rate are more art/skill/judgement than science. Perhaps run your NYT calculator for your prospective investment area as a check of ROI?... and get a local successful real estate investor to check yo...

For what it it worth, I would think Renue74 net cash of $550/month on $50k is a good return, even the $320/month (presumably conservative calc) is an OK cash on cash return, especially when combined with another 4% appreciation. A bit late now, but I hope you estimated appreciation across a couple o...

Hi, Can't comment on (C) or (D) as IMHO they will be driven by job satisfaction and personal growth factors that I cannot possibly value. On first glance it seems wrong to live in a HCOL area and be paid by a relatively LCOL company... leading to my vote for (A). As Hazel-Rah demonstrated, dramatic ...

I have bought ~4 over the last few years. I look for low db (<50 I think) and presence of a short wash cycle. I may be missing a critical criteria but have had no known issues. I don't self install so also had 4 different installers. Normal wash cycles are 1-2 hours and short about 35 min. I have fo...

Hi, I never paid for grades, but then my kids only sporadically managed straight As, so maybe I should have :-) Families are different, but IMHO kids can be very different within the same family. I tend to fall on the side that: ideally, kids should be intrinsically motivated, leading them to choose...

Hi, IMHO the key words in your post are: "If you have enough" I am not sure your example is apples to apples. I think your better approach directs/assumes the necessity of a bigger portfolio ie to use your OP example the portfolio is generating 3% withdrawal rate compared to the 4% "safe???" withdra...

You have had some very wise heads tell you to (1) sell and take the loss. IMHO An ETF or Fund of REITs is a more boglehead thing to own than a single REIT stock. VNQ, VGSLX is probably down too but provides diversification across 144? different equity REIT stocks. (2) Usually, another important part...

Sorry I just scanned the replies, I didn't know until I hit the following problems. * Number of radios.... if you travel overseas my $100 won't work where others do. (Not the plan problem) * Ran out of RAM in 2 months of use (to receive texts)... I am not a heavy app user and previous phone memory w...

+1 for Valuethinker advice on risk. I can't possibly advise you (overall asset %, risk tolerance, Debt to Income, investment experience etc etc are all prob superb and better than mine), but here are some things I would consider: * I would only consider doing this if I could support the mortgage (an...

Hi, Lots of good thoughts. I particularly like Kevin's analogy to high-yield stock. Though with more than 12 properties, it could be more like a sector fund than an individual stock. ie IMHO value won't go to zero but without geographic diversity may be subject to large single risk (for me it is ear...

Thanks for the Fidelity link, I didn't know there were private equity funds available to the masses. I don't think you would get much argument that Palo Alto/SF Bay Area real estate is cyclical and it is heading for a correction. I haven't found better illustrative charts than from http://www.parago...

I am certain it is possible to achieve a higher overall ROI from real estate investing than from a total market index (e.g. use network and leverage to buy off-market, below market apartment building with undermarket rents and raise rents ~30%; buy distressed stock at discount then fix; buy from mot...

Lots of good advice above. My 2c worth is that if you decide to move, please consider quality of school district. In my area this has a huge impact on prices and if you don't understand the impact you may buy a nice house and then later be dissatisfied. Also privacy with light can be addressed with ...

Hi, Since this is the Bogleheads forum, here are a few IMHO Bogleheadish modifiers: Absolutely $265k and renting is sufficient to live a good life. However IMHO, for someone who says: "have to catch up on (retirement) big time". I would be very careful and smart about good life $ allocation to reall...

Some miscellaneous thoughts: IMHO best way to retire at 30 is work really hard, really smart before that and have a good dose of luck. Retirement at 30 by rentals is no easier to achieve than any other work... but may appear easier as e.g. no formal degree/training/license is required, so there is a...

Bonds throw off steady flows of cash just fine, they're just less risky and require less work and thus the cash flows are lower. In the current bond market environment I wouldn't describe yields as "just fine", more like "artificially depressed". ... agree with Noobvestor that real estate has very ...

sharp1aarohead - This is an important point: Does anyone care to show some details on how they calculated their own returns? For me, the most useful real estate return comparison calc I use is 60% of rent (assuming 40% will go to operating and maintenance costs, excluding financing costs) plus appr...

... It was purchased in March 30th for 380k and the "investor" is selling it now in June for 550... . I encourage you to keep questioning... and if you start thinking like the investor who bought at $380k, a lot of your assumptions and math may change. Just guesses, but possibilities for buy price:...

There is too much not to like about REITS Hard to fathom owning REITs at these levels. Think about it: a levered basket of real estate yielding 3%? Would you buy a rental property with a 3% cap rate? Hi, I am not agreeing or disagreeing with your on REIT opinion... but just supplying an example of ...

Hi, IMHO REITs may work in a portfolio because of rebalancing... ie you buy on their large dips. 30% or more returns: Last year it was REIT, year before small cap... IMHO you can't expect sustained returns like that year after year. International and emerging have been relative underperformers in re...

At the time it was received, inheritance was probably 30%-40%, now down to just under 20% and continues to fall. We have definitely benefited from the extra security, but has been 100% invested to provide an extra buffer in retirement and leave to our estate.

Hi, Not sure if you want to hear a different opinion or confirmation of your thinking... The following are some misc comments for your consideration: Yes it would have been far, far better to buy 2009-2012. Although there will likely be a correction when the Tech 2.0 effect diminishes: IMHO Burlinga...

We paid about this, no blended family. Although a DIYer, I opted for specialist estate attorney rather than NOLO or Corporate generalist as I figured I did not know what I didn't know. They answered all my questions and I hope they will still be a good resource for my family as many critical tax pla...

I will second researching Montessori methods and toys/tools. My 4 year old (intelligent but nothing extraordinary) went to a Montessori preschool and could keep doubling... at least to 4096. I thought it was cool but don't remember the exact toys/tools they used for maths. I was even more impressed ...

Just some random thoughts: If there is "nothing affordable to buy" then I would lean to keeping it as this sounds like a decent indicator for rental and at least temporary principal. Need to know expected rent, presumably significantly more than 1 bed condo? I live in a v.HCOL area so 8300 sq ft sou...

Hi, I didn't do a thorough reading so not sure about other contingencies, but IMHO, from the seller's point of view: If you remove all contingencies ASAP then you have "accepted all the risk" and demonstrated your earnest desire to close, so the 21 to 30 day is not a huge deal, just another week of ...

Not sure I have loyalty , but I have repeat brand/product combos that I prefer and will include as the "value to beat" in any future purchase comparisons. Dewalt cordless tools (bit of lock-in due to battery) Brooks brothers non-iron shirts, many of their other styles, don't appeal Trader Joe's: rea...