Election 2014: Arkansas Governor’s Race Rated As ‘Leans Republican’

LITTLE ROCK — The Arkansas governor’s race has been rated as “leans Republican” by a noted campaign handicapper.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia this week moved the race from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” Sabato did not identify a specific event but said Arkansas has been trending Republican at the federal level, the GOP has made major gains at the state level, and Republican Asa Hutchinson appears to have a lead over Democrat Mike Ross.

Five out of six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation are Republicans. In November 2012, the GOP won majorities in the state House and Senate for the first time since Reconstruction.

Sabato cited an NBC-Marist poll conducted in late April and early May in which 49 percent of respondents supported Hutchinson and 42 percent supported Ross. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percent.

Hutchinson and Ross, both former congressmen, are vying with Green Party candidate Joshua Drake and Libertarian candidate Frank Gilbert to succeed Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, who is term-limited.

Sabato had rated the race as “leans Republican” last year, but in August he changed the rating to “toss-up,” citing strong fundraising by Ross, former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter’s decision to abandon a bid for the Democratic nomination after Ross entered the race, and previous unsuccessful campaigns by Hutchinson for U.S. Senate in 1986, attorney general in 1990 and governor in 2006.

Hutchinson said Thursday in an email, “My vision of job creation and economic growth in Arkansas is why we’re ahead in contrast to Congressman Mike Ross, who is behind in this race because he voted for a liberal healthcare takeover that included a public option, an individual mandate and an employer mandate.”

“Mike Ross tries to avoid talking about his vote on H.R.3200 because he realized how deeply unpopular his first choice of healthcare reform was. Arkansans want more and better jobs, not top-down, heavy handed policies from Washington, D.C.,” Hutchinson said.

H.R. 3200 was an early health care reform bill that Ross voted for in the House Energy and Commerce Committee on July 31, 2009. That bill never came up for a vote in the House, and Ross later voted against the health care bill that became law, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

The Hutchinson campaign, the state Republican Party and the Republican Governors Association all issued news releases Thursday noting the five-year anniversary of Ross’ voted on H.R. 3200.

Ross spokesman Brad Howard said Thursday that Sabato’s rating was based on a single poll that was conducted before Hutchinson’s appearance last week before the Arkansas Farm Bureau, during which Hutchinson admitted he was not a member, and before this week’s revelation that Hutchinson improperly claimed homestead tax credits on two homes between 2008 and 2011.

Hutchinson reported the double tax credits to Pulaski County officials in 2012 and repaid the county $1,050 at that time. After questions were raised about whether penalties should have been imposed, he voluntarily gave the county an additional $1,750 on Wednesday.

Regarding H.R. 3200, Howard said, “The bill referenced by Congressman Hutchinson died and never became law. The truth is simple and clear: Mike Ross has consistently voted against Obamacare.”

Howard said an April 2006 report by The Associated Press quoted Hutchinson as saying Arkansas could learn from Massachusetts’ approach to combining universal health care with personal responsibility.

“The irony of Congressman Hutchinson’s false attacks is that he himself supported the Massachusetts system that is the basis for Obamacare. It is just the latest example of Congressman Hutchinson doing one thing to help his pals in Washington, and saying the exact opposite to the voters here in Arkansas,” Howard said.