Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Economic recovery may look anaemic, especially against the backdrop of the Eurozone crisis, but measured in CO2 the downturn is over. After falling by 1.3% in 2009, global emissions are set to bounce 3% this year. Worse, the emissions cuts pledged at Copenhagen last year fall 40% short of what's needed to limit warming to 2 degrees and avoid runaway climate change, according to a report called The Emissions Gap, published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). Few hold much hope of a major improvement at next week's talks in Cancun.

If that isn't frightening enough it should be remembered that the Copenhagen pledges aren't binding and that many scientists, including NASA's James Hansen, now believe that the atmospheric concentration of 455ppm targeted by the climate talks is far too high. In their view we need to get back to 350ppm — fast.

And what of the UK? According to WWFs Climate Policy Tracker for the European Union, Britain trails behind Germany, Denmark, Ireland and Sweden in its efforts to cut emissions, and Europe as a whole is doing only a third of what's needed to deliver an 80-95% reduction by 2050. Worse, reports suggest the government may be about to relax the terms of its promised "emissions performance standard" (EPS) for coal plants. If so it would be awful news for the climate.

It may also be economically foolish, in light of an article by Richard Heinberg and David Fridley published in Nature magazine. They argue the days of cheap coal are numbered due to a combination of overstated global reserves data, and ballooning demand. The piece coincided with reports that China's coal imports in November will hit a record high, and that the country is considering capping domestic coal output to avoid running reserves down too rapidly.

Meanwhile James Fallow, writing in The Atlantic, argues that the only way to mitigate the climate impact of coal demand in the developing world is through carbon capture or clean coal, and that Chinese and US cooperation could develop this technology. He points out however that clean-up comes at a cost of 30% of power output. But if coal prices rise, will the political will be there to pay this price?

Confirmation of growing demand for fossil fuel energy came this week from BP Chief Economist Christof Ruehl, who forecasts that floating storage inventories of oil will be used up by Q2 of 2011; and from Paddy Padmanathan, Chief Executive Officer of the Saudi Company ACWA Power, who anticipates that the kingdom will need to double its domestic oil use by 2023 to meet rising electricity demand.

Oil fell from near a one-week high amid concern Ireland's debt crisis will spread to Portugal and Spain, limiting economic growth and diminishing fuel demand.

Futures slipped as the euro dropped toward a two-month against the dollar, curbing investor demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency. Crude rose the most in four months on Nov. 24, jumping 3.2 percent, after U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest since 2008, bolstering optimism economic growth will accelerate in the biggest oil-consuming nation...

Saudi Arabia may double domestic oil use by 2023 as energy demand increases, cutting the amount of crude for export to less than half pumped volumes in two decades, the head of generator ACWA Power International said.

The kingdom consumes about 1.2 million barrels a day of oil and refined products for power generation and about the same amount of crude for processing, ACWA Power Chief Executive Officer Paddy Padmanathan said today at a conference in Abu Dhabi...

China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia will likely rise 11 percent next year to hit one million barrels per day, a pace slightly faster than 2010 but off the heady increases in previous years, industry officials told Reuters.

China's refining expansion is expected to moderate next year and rising competition of mostly Russian oil via a Siberian pipeline means import growth for the high-sulphur Saudi oil would be limited, they said...

Coal

Economic global coal reserves will run out faster than expected because of overly optimistic estimates and accelerating demand, leading to a surge in prices, Nature magazine reported in its Nov. 18 issue.

"The inevitable result of soaring demand and dwindling supply will be rising coal prices globally, even in nations that are currently self-sufficient in the resources," Richard Heinberg and David Fridley, fellows at the Post-Carbon Institute in Santa Rosa, California wrote in an article in the magazine. "Energy policies relying on cheap coal have no future."...

THROUGH THE PAST four years I've often suggested that China's vaunted achievements are less impressive, or at least more complicated, seen up close. Yes, Chinese factories make nearly all of the world's consumer electronic equipment. But the brand names, designs, and most of the profits usually belong to companies and people outside China. Yes, China's accumulated trade surpluses have made it the creditor for America and much of the world. But the huge share of its own wealth that China has sunk into foreign economies ties its fate to theirs. Yes, more and more Chinese people are very rich. But hundreds of millions of Chinese people are still very poor. Yes, Chinese factories lead the world in output of windmills and solar-power panels. But China's environmental situation is still so dire as to pose the main threat not just to the country's public health and political stability but also to its own economic expansion...

Even as developed countries close or limit the construction of coal-fired power plants out of concern over pollution and climate-warming emissions, coal has found a rapidly expanding market elsewhere: Asia, particularly China.

At ports in Canada, Australia, Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa, ships are lining up to load coal for furnaces in China, which has evolved virtually overnight from a coal exporter to one of the world's leading purchasers...

The Obama administration on Tuesday unveiled plans to begin issuing new offshore wind energy leases as soon as next year under an accelerated approval process.

The U.S. Interior Department said it will work to identify high priority areas off the Atlantic coast for offshore wind energy development, as well as revise regulations to simplify the leasing process as part of its new initiative...

China

China used 3 percent less energy for every economic unit produced in the first nine months compared with a year earlier, China Daily reported, citing Xie Zhenhua, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The world's fastest-growing major economy is on track to meet its year-end energy conservation goal, the state-run daily cited Xie as saying at a Beijing conference Nov. 24, days before the start of global climate change talks in Cancun, Mexico...

Feeling the pain of soaring fuel bills, trawler captain Liang Liming is thrilled to hear that in a few years his diesel-guzzling 400-horsepower boat may shift to natural gas, a cleaner fuel about a third cheaper.

Independent firms supplying retail volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) around China are targeting hundreds of thousands of users such as Liang, gunning for as much as 10 percent of China's roughly 1.6 million barrels per day diesel market for transport use by 2015...

A Chinese dairy farm is installing the world's largest system to turn steaming cow pats into enough electricity to power thousands of homes, it was reported Tuesday.

The device at the Huishan Dairy is 10 times bigger than similar systems and will take the excrement from 60,000 cows and capture methane from the fermenting pats, according to Technology Review magazine...

When Chris Huhne, the UK energy secretary, announced last month that he was cancelling public funding for the Severn barrage - the massive tidal power project which was due to provide around 5 per cent of the UK's electricity needs - it initially looked like the project was dead in the water.

But the government had left itself some wriggle room. As Sylvia Pfeifer reported at the time (italics mine):

Mr Huhne also confirmed there would be no state funding for the Severn tidal power project, saying the government did not see "a strategic case at this time for public funding"....

Power bosses from RWE and E.ON have warned that the threat of green restrictions on gas could stop new plants being built, potentially endangering Britain's energy supply.

Concerns were sparked as ministers announced that they are prepared to fund a £1bn trial project looking at "carbon capture and storage" for gas, where emissions are siphoned off and stored underground. The funding had previously only been available for coal, which is twice as pollutive...

Climate

The world is now firmly on the path for dangerous climate change in the coming century, a major new assessment reveals today on the eve of the forthcoming UN climate conference which opens next week in Mexico.

All the pledges of the nations which have agreed to cut or limit their emissions of greenhouse gases, when added together, still leave the world far short of what is needed to halt the coming rise in global average temperatures to 2C, generally regarded as the danger threshold, according to the study from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)...

Emissions of man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are roaring ahead again after a smaller-than-expected dip due to the worldwide recession. Scientists are forecasting that CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil and gas will reach their highest in history this year.

Levels of the man-made greenhouse gas being dumped into the atmosphere have never been higher and are once again accelerating. Scientists have revised their figures on global CO2 emissions, showing that levels fell by just 1.3 per cent in 2009 — less than half of what was expected. This year they are likely to increase by more than 3 per cent, greater than the average annual increase for the last decade...

The UK needs to triple its efforts towards cutting emissions and moving to a low-carbon economy by 2050, a report has warned.

The Climate Policy Tracker for the European Union (EU) by wildlife charity WWF and innovation company Ecofys revealed that EU countries, on average, are doing only a third of what is needed to cut emissions by between 80% and 95% by mid-century...

A coalition of leading US climate scientists this week launched a new rapid response website aimed at closing the gap between scientific knowledge and public opinion on climate change. For those who have become exasperated rebutting the endless stream of disinformation that frustratingly still characterises the climate change debate, it seems like an idea that is long overdue.

Fronted by the embattled Prof John Abraham, the website will provide direct access to climate science expertise through a network of scientists. But the premise underlying the initiative — that climate change scepticism will be reduced through a clearer presentation of the facts — is problematic. Why? Because climate change scepticism is only superficially about science...

China acknowledged on Tuesday it is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases stoking global warming, confirming what scientists have said for years but defending its right to keep growing emissions.

China's chief negotiator in international climate change talks, Xie Zhenhua, made the comment while spelling out his government's position ahead of negotiations in Cancun, Mexico, from Nov. 29 over a new global pact to fight global warming...

Mayors from around the world signed a voluntary pact Sunday in Mexico City to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a meeting meant as a precursor to UN-sponsored climate talks in Cancun opening next week.

The gathering in one of the world's most polluted cities assembled thousands of local and regional leaders to discuss a wide range of economic and social issues, including climate change...