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09/08 21:31 WTNT44KNHC092036

09/08 21:31 WTNT34KNHC092036

09/08 21:31 WTNT24KNHC092043CCA

09/08 21:31 WTNT24KNHC092036

09/08 15:31 WTNT44KNHC091434

09/08 15:31 WTNT34KNHC091433

09/08 15:31 WTNT24KNHC091432

09/08 09:31 WTNT44KNHC090837

09/08 09:31 WTNT34KNHC090836

09/08 09:31 WTNT24KNHC090836

09/08 03:31 WTNT44KNHC090241

09/08 03:31 WTNT34KNHC090239

09/08 03:31 WTNT24KNHC090250CCA

09/08 03:31 WTNT24KNHC090239

08/08 21:31 WTNT44KNHC082033

08/08 21:31 WTNT34KNHC082031

08/08 21:31 WTNT24KNHC082031

08/08 15:35 WTNT44KNHC081436

08/08 15:35 WTNT34KNHC081434

08/08 15:35 WTNT24KNHC081434

08/08 09:31 WTNT44KNHC080834

08/08 09:31 WTNT34KNHC080833

08/08 09:31 WTNT24KNHC080833

08/08 07:31 WTNT44KNHC080231

08/08 07:31 WTNT44KNHC072032

08/08 07:31 WTNT44KNHC071455

08/08 07:31 WTNT34KNHC080230

08/08 07:31 WTNT34KNHC072031

08/08 07:31 WTNT34KNHC071454

08/08 07:31 WTNT24KNHC080230

08/08 07:31 WTNT24KNHC072031

08/08 07:31 WTNT24KNHC071454

2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT44 KNHC 092036
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
Debby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has
become ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized
deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore,
Debby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The
cyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough,
and this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up
into a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal
boundary later tonight.
Debby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast
of its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these
winds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT34 KNHC 092036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
...DEBBY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 40.5W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
was located near latitude 45.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next
few hours until the cyclone dissipates later tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until Debby dissipates later
tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby. Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT24 KNHC 092043 CCA
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018
CORRECTED TO REMOVE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 40.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 40.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 42.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 40.5W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT24 KNHC 092036
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 40.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 40.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 42.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.5N 35.6W...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N 40.5W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-09 15:31

WTNT44 KNHC 091434
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just
south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this
morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream,
and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to
maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass
around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still
near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of
low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically
an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics.
No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity
forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly
northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or
its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a
fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now
crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is
expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows
Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very
possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed
increases.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 44.5N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-09 09:31

WTNT44 KNHC 090837
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
Debby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst
of deep convection having recently developed just south of the
low-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has
deteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there
are no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier
40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial
intensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent
with an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity
estimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB.
Debby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion
estimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected
as Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a
fast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open
up into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster
than 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold
waters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle
of the tightly packed guidance envelope.
Although Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a
tight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and
south of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air
from the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until
dissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly
become extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly
thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 43.6N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 45.4N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-09 09:31

WTNT34 KNHC 090836
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
...DEBBY BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COLD WATERS
OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 45.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion
with a further increase in forward speed is expected until the storm
dissipates in another day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Debby could become an
extratropical cyclone this afternoon or evening before dissipating
on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-09 03:31

WTNT44 KNHC 090241
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
A very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than
previously estimated. The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,
and since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with
a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. Although the relatively compact
tropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the
thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the
center due to about 15 kt of wind shear. Debby is currently over
fairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler
water during the next 24 to 36 hours. These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause
weakening and extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast
shows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating
shortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.
The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13
kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone
opens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 42.8N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 44.4N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 46.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-08-08 21:31

WTNT44 KNHC 082033
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
area of moderate convection. A blend of the satellite intensity
estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
of 35 kt at this time. Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.
Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
or 040 degrees at 13 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
forward speed. The track models continue to be in pretty good
agreement.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 42.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 43.5N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 45.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-08 15:35

WTNT44 KNHC 081436
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a
tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate
convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined
upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still
support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest
that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over
cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the
system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger
trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby
into a trough of low pressure on Thursday.
The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will
continue to move on this general northeastward track with some
increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until
dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this
solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 41.2N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 42.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 44.2N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 46.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT44 KNHC 080834
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
Over the past several hours, deep convection with cloud tops of -55
to -60 deg C has developed in the southeastern semicircle, with
some of the convective tops covering the previously exposed
low-level circulation center. In addition, outer banding
features have dissipated, and an elongated upper-level anticyclone
has developed over the cyclone. These convective- and synoptic-scale
features indicate that Debby has made the transition from a
subtropical to a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 40 kt
is based on a blend of UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates
of 39 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Furthermore, the 34-kt wind radii
and radius of maximum winds (RMW) were decreased significantly on
this advisory based on ASCAT wind data.
The initial motion estimate is now 015/08 kt. Debby has made the
forecast turn toward the north-northeast, and a further turn toward
the northeast is expected later today as the cyclone moves around
the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge and ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough. The latest model guidance remains in
good agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close
to a blend of the track consensus models HCCA and FSSE.
Debby will be moving along a tight sea-surface temperature (SST)
gradient for the next 24-36 hours or so, with the northwestern half
the circulation being over sub-25C SSTs and the southeastern
semicircle being over warmer waters where convection could continue
to develop. Given the relatively low vertical wind shear regime
that the cyclone will be moving through, along with the possibility
of deep convection persisting near the center, the intensity
forecast calls for little change in strength today, followed by
only slight weakening tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night
or early Friday, SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to decrease
to near 20 deg C and the shear is forecast to increase to more than
20 kt, an unfavorable combination that should result in Debby
dissipating over the far north Atlantic by 48 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 40.8N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 41.8N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 43.2N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 44.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT34 KNHC 080833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
...DEBBY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 48.8W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 48.8 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward
the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, and that motion should
continue into Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast today,
with slow weakening expected to begin late tonight or on Thursday.
Debby is forecast to dissipate over the far northern Atlantic by
Thursday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 080231
TCDAT4
Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of
Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a
subtropical cyclone. Most of the convection is in a ragged band
well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.
The global models are in good agreement that the system will open
up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure
system within 48 hours.
The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt. Debby
is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of
a mid-level trough. The official forecast is somewhat faster than
the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the
previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 40.3N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 41.2N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 43.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 072032
TCDAT4
Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective
band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB
provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier
ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is
used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone.
Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during
the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since
Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded
within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so. Debby is
forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
degrees at 13 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this
general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
which will eventually absorb Debby.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 39.7N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 41.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 42.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 44.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 071455
TCDAT4
Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North
Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical
characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status.
The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well
removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are
occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection.
Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no
significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon
be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to
dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this
general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
which will eventually absorb Debby.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 38.9N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila

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