Oregon & Auburn: Spread the Spread

Because of the SEC’s monster TV deal, I’ve been able to see Auburn several times this year, probably more than any other team in the country outside of Washington, actually. As such, I feel like I have a pretty good feel for who they are–and they are great. Unquestionably so.

Auburn is big, physical, and fast at certain positions. Auburn has Cam Newton who is fast and has size at 6’6 250. While a lot of guys have size, not many use their size as well as he does–and he does so willingly. Auburn’s defensive front is big and fantastic. With good reason, Nick Fairley has been the talk of the town. The guy is a monster and even with all of the attention offenses pay to him, he still destroys people. I have no doubt that he’s going to knife through or flatback Oregon’s line more than once.

Auburn also has the stink of destiny on them what with their improbable come-from-behind 28-27 victory over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and their string of one-score victories: Mississippi State (17-14), Clemson (27-24 OT), South Carolina (35-27), Kentucky (37-34), and LSU (24-17). Every national title team has at least one game that they’ve won where it looked for all the world that they would lose–and Auburn has several. Their ability to pull these games out speaks to the character of their team. Winning close games is not a sign of weakness; it’s a sign of heart, toughness, and ability. Auburn’s attitude is personified in Newton; they are nowhere near the title game if he’s not involved. He makes them go. Everyone knows that. I don’t see Oregon necessarily stopping Newton, Ontario McCaleb, and the rest of the Auburn offense, but I do see some issues for Auburn. For one, while Oregon’s offense is simplistic, Auburn’s offense is even more so. Put it this way, if Oregon’s offense is Connect Four, then Auburn’s is tic-tac-toe. It’s not a matter of figuring out where the ball is going to go so much as it is stopping it once you do know–and that is going to be a challenge for Oregon because Newton and Auburn’s running backs are exceptional. Not to mention their outstanding tight end, Philip Lutzenkirchen (aka “Touchdown Lu”–I just gave him that name, like it?). But that’s not the issue here, I think Auburn’s going to score, probably anywhere from 28-35 points, which would be just about right for them. Oregon had only one such destiny game, their 15-13 win over Cal, which fits the mold a little better…

Which leads me to the image I can’t get out of my head: close ups on Auburn’s defense with their hands on their hips, their eyes squinting, and mouth breathing. Deeply. I can’t shake the thought that Oregon’s offense is simply going to run Auburn ragged. It’s very clear to me that Auburn has far more NFL talent than Oregon does, a few exceptions aside. But this is not the NFL. We all know that Oregon’s offense plays at an extremely fast pace, but I think that they are going to exaggerate it even more for this game, especially early. I see Chip Kelly deploying a “shock and awe” campaign on the Tigers because he wants to get in their head right away. He wants them to think, “Oh s**t, is it going to be like this the whole game?” No matter how talented you are, if someone gets in your head and you mentally start to question yourself, it’s over. Furthermore, when Oregon does decide to throw the ball, I don’t think Auburn’s going to get to Darron Thomas. Oregon is ranked No. 5 in the country in sacks allowed (Auburn is ranked No. 20 in sacks–so clearly they can get to the QB, but just not this one). When Oregon throws the ball, it’s not as if Thomas is dropping back five steps and surveying the field. He gets the ball out quick, and Thomas is no statue, he’s going to move around and get the ball out. Additionally, Thomas’s mobility becomes more of a concern because Auburn’s defense is going to be gassed, making him more dangerous.

So, while Newton is going to make his share of outstanding plays and Oregon is going to have trouble containing him, the bottom line is that Oregon is going to make more plays and will be more explosive and simply score more. I see this game being close for three quarters and then Oregon is going to run away with it.

Sorry, UW fans, but Oregon is going to bring home the national title. Hopefully this victory will mean that some of Oregon’s insufferable fans (No, not you, G, and not all of of you are this way, but many, many, many of you are, and you know it–and yes, several dorky UW fans are this way too, we all know this… but just because someone else is annoying doesn’t mean you should be too) can drop the massive insecurity and inferiority complex and just pipe down. You won; congratulations.

Prediction: 45-31 Oregon (and no, this is not a jinx, I truly believe this, as far as you know).