Australian Prime Minister-Elect Tony Abbott is likely to keep market-based carbon program after scrapping the current fixed-price system, similar to a plan by outgoing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, according to Daniel Rossetto, managing director of Climate Mundial in an interview in London today with Bloomberg News.

People forecasting repeal of Clean Energy Act 2011 overlook the difficulty of Abbott’s coalition government getting Senate support to introduce its Direct Action policy. If the coalition repeals the Clean Energy Act 2011, Australia may end up in the highly spurious position of having a climate target of a 5% cut by 2020 but no policy to achieve that goal for several years if at all, said Rossetto, a member of Australian National Emissions Trading Taskforce from 2004-06.

Rudd pledged to remove nation’s fixed carbon price a year ahead of schedule as part of move to market system. According to Rossetto: “Coalition repeal of existing law before introducing new program will fuel speculation that Abbott doubts need for climate-protection policy. This fact alone will be enough to dissuade the public from supporting repeal. I see repeal as becoming quite improbable”.