AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 25

6 July 1998

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new
members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations
of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of
the WIN Editor.

SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

CIA EXPANDING CLANDESTINE CAPABILITIES - CIA has sharply
increased its recruitment of case officers as part of a strategic
plan to repair damaged US espionage services by 2005, supported by
increased Congressional funding. CIA plans to hire more than five
times as many potential case officers than in 1995, when the agency
hit its post-Cold-War low, and to reopen a number of posts which had
been closed. Stations in the developing nations had been closed
because the necessity to recruit Soviet KGB and political personnel
was gone, but now there is renewed appreciation for the importance of
these stations to produce intelligence on terrorists and other
international criminals.

Intelligence officials have been cited for some time as
complaining that CIA's Directorate of Operations had lost much of its
effectiveness in recent years, suffering a drain of talent -
including many officers who complained about low morale, heavy-handed
bureaucracy and risk-averse policies. The scandals involving Aldrich
Ames and Harold Nicholson, both DO officers, also had a negative
impact. In addition, a number of CIA operatives have been embroiled
in public accusations of spying by France, Germany and other nations,
producing allegations of possible shortcomings in tradecraft .

The program to expand CIA's clandestine services has strong
support in the House, where Speaker Newt Gingrich pushed through
supplemental financing to enable the increased recruitment and
expansion of stations.

The Chairman of the Senate Select Committee, Senator Richard
Shelby, is leary of the budget increases proposed by the House,
reportedly stating that problems cannot be fixed by simply throwing
money at the agency, and that he is more concerned about "quality,
not quantity, at the CIA." (NYT 27 Jun p. A9) (Editor)

HOUSE CONCERNED WITH INTELLIGENCE SPENDING CONTROLS - The
HPSCI had critical words for several "players" in the 1999
intelligence proposed budget, which the full House approved in early
May.

"Fences have been placed on portions of the NSA budget with the
prospect that a considerable amount of money could be programmed for
other intelligence community needs if NSA does not develop strategic
and business planning," the HPSCI said in its authorization report.
The committee indicated its frustration with the 25,000 person
agency, saying that budget and staff cuts ordered by Congress last
year "all have met resistance and have been deflected from their
intended purpose." Although the committee gave NSA more funds to deal
with the explosion in telecommunications technology in the coming
years, the panel was unhappy that similar funds from last year were
"minimized" and that NSA officials "cannot track allocations for
critical functions that cross the old program and bureaucratic
lines."

The HPSCI also called on the DCI to take a more active role in
managing the intelligence community budget and pointed to NRO
programs as needing more diligent oversight. The increasing costs of
several major NRO programs incurred committee concern. NIMA financial
management was questioned by the committee, citing numerous instances
in which the imagery & mapping agency reported conflicting
information on some of its programs. The committee still ended up
voting slightly more money for intelligence than the administration
had asked for, including an increase in HUMINT funding. (Harvey)

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPOINTMENTS - DCI George Tenet
announced two appointments to implement the recommendations by
Admiral David E. Jeremiah, whose inquiry into the failure of the
Intelligence Community to provide tactical warning on the Indian
nuclear test included a critique of intelligence management (see WIN
#24). Appointed as Assistant Director of Central Intelligence (ADCI)
for Collection, coordinating the entire intelligence community
intelligence collection system, was Charles Allen, a thirty year
veteran operations officer. He will oversee the decisions of the
various committees deciding the targets of national systems. He
allegedly was chosen on the basis of his reputation for holding
contrarian views and willingness to challenge the system.

In addition, the DCI appointed John Gannon, the current Chairman
of the National Intelligence Council, to be the new ADCI for
Analysis and Production, coordinating analysis and reporting for all
community agencies.

The DCI also announced the impending departure of Dr Ruth David,
CIA's Deputy Director for Science & Technology (DDS&T), who
will move in September to become the President and CEO of ANSER, a
not-for-profit public service research institute.

(NYT 5 June 98; CIA PA release No 06-98, 22 June 98) (Editor)

DIA ESTIMATES CUBA IS NO THREAT - A recent estimate by DIA,
prepared in consultation with CIA and other intelligence agencies,
elicited considerable press reporting, not because the conclusions
were surprising, but because of the political maneuvering
accompanying the release of the report to Congress. DIA concluded
that Cuba "does not pose a significant military threat to the U.S. or
to other countries in the region." The report describes an army with
mothballed equipment, incapable of mounting effective operations
above the battalion level, a navy with no functioning submarines; and
an air force with fewer than two dozen operational MIG fighter jets.

When advance press accounts of this finding led to objections by
Florida lawmakers, SECDEF sent the report back to DIA for a "second
look." Five weeks later Secretary Cohen forwarded the estimate with
his personal views that "While the assessment notes that the direct
conventional threat by the Cuban military has decreased, I remain
concerned about the use of Cuba as a base for intelligence activities
against the United States, the potential threat Cuba may pose to
neighboring islands, Castro's continuing dictatorship. . ., and the
potential instability that could accompany the end of his regime."

This dust-up illustrates the continuing need for the intelligence
community to remain resolute in its resistance to politicize
intelligence reporting. (Harvey)

IRAQ'S BLAME US URANIUM SHELLS FOR INCREASED CANCER RATES
- Iraqi sources attribute a marked increase in cancer patients to US
use of uranium-tipped shells and the resultant low-level radio-active
toxic dust that followed the explosions. During the 1990/91 Gulf War
more than 600,000 pounds of depleted-uranium armor-piercing shells
were released by US tanks and aircraft, producing toxic dust that
covered the ground and water supplies. The Iraqi Health Ministry has
been quiet about the depleted uranium impact, and criticism is
emanating principally from various Western anti-war groups. A cancer
specialist in Basra stated there is no clear proof of any single
cause for the increase in cancer cases in his area, but noted an
unusual and marked increase in leukemia and lymphatic cancer, often
related to radiation, as well as rare cancers such as pancreatic
cancer. Pentagon officials stated there is no basis for the Iraqi
assertions and that no adverse effects have been noted, but has
issued instructions for US soldiers to avoid contact with targets of
the uranium shells on ranges, exercises or war. The Nuclear
Regulatory Commission treats depleted uranium as hazardous material.
(Wpost 5 Jul 98, page A17) (editor)

SECTION II - BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS

- THE PENTIUM MISSION, by Joe Fontana, Orchises
Press, Alexandria Va 1998 (ISBN 0-914061-72-0) . A novelist's view
of the shadowy war being waged to prevent "weapons of mass
destruction" from falling into the hands of states designated as
"rogue states." A rollicking good tale featuring Russian Mafia
assassins, international intrigue and "special operations" supported
by intelligence. Fiction which, if occasional media articles are to
believed, contains an image of truth - and much easier to digest.
This novel by a veteran international lawyer and current professor is
recommended reading.

For Washington area members, books will be autographed at Barnes
& Noble, 4801 Bethesda Ave, Maryland on Thursday 9 July 1998 at
7:30-8:30 pm. (editor)

- THE ATTACHES, by Major General (ret) "Chuck"
Scanlon (1997), IM Press Inc, Virginia (ISBN 0-9660137-0-0). The
general turned novelist provides a view of the life of military
attaches set in the mid-1980's Cold War, regional wars, terrorism,
illegal drugs and espionage. This is fiction inspired by real life.
Very little has been written about attaches, and this novel is an
easy way to get an idea of some of the ways the Defense Atttache
Service - a quiet player of real importance - operates. (Editor)

- COMMUNISM, THE COLD WAR AND THE FBI CONNECTION -
by Herman Bly, Huntington House Publishers, 1998 (ISBN
1-56834-149-5). This book by AFIO member Herman Bly covers his
experience with investigations of subversive elements during his 23
years with the Bureau and his assessment of the communist threat. He
was the chief of the special FBI Counter-Intelligence operation
(COINTELPRO) directed against the Communist Party USA in the 1950's.
Just off the press! (Editor)

SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD

TAPS - James O'Donnell wrote: " It is with great sorrow
that I note the passing of one of the greatest cryptographers of all
time, Frank Rowlett. I am reminded of him every time a present day
comic refers to military intelligence as an oxymoron. How futile an
exercise it would be to explain it at alI. I wish I had the
knowledge he had consumed in one day.
(<jod2061@worldnet.att.net>

MONTANA CHAPTER - The Montana Chapter, under the
leadership President Charlie Crookshanks (<reddog@bigsky.net>),
took issue with a severely biased and slanted editorial on US
Intelligence in a local newspaper by a former Congressman. Rather
than just letting it go by, the Chapter challenged the article in the
media, and gained a good deal of favorable publicity in the process
of bringing some balance and common sense into the argument. To be
successful in its educational mission, AFIO needs to be "pro-active"
like the Chapter - taking initiatives, especially in seeking rational
media coverage of the role and contributions of intelligence. Well
done, and congratulations to the Chapter! (RJ)

MEDIA PROGRAM WORKSHOPS - AFIO San Francisco members
participated in three workshops that critiques a three-part
television series on the Discovery Channel entitled "CIA: Secret
Warriors." Peter Karlow, one of the Bay chapter's distinguished
members, was interviewed on the program itself. The TV program itself
focused almost entirely on covert action, and did not clarify CIA's
basic mandate of all-source analysis. The AFIO effort was publicized
in a magazine entitled MILITARY (<military@ns.net>), further
accomplishing the AFIO mission. (RJ)

CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY - A member of AFIO's Seattle
Chapter, Brian Fairchild, a veteran of nineteen years in the CIA's
Directorate of Operations, and currently running his own
investigative consulting company, testified before the Joint Economic
Committee of Congress as an expert on intelligence matters on 20 May,
testifying to the need for legal protection of US industries against
economic espionage and the need to enhance DO capabilities to serve
as a "first line of defense." His insightful testimony outlined a
number of areas in which the DO needs to improve, and will be further
covered in AFIO's hardcopy publications. (RJ)

JOB OPPORTUNITY - Associate Director - Employee Safety and
Facility Security National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD).
This new position, based in Rockville, MD, would develop coordinated
strategies and policies for all NASD locations addressing general and
site specific requirements.

Requirements: College degree and minimum of 10 years experience in
management level organization/corporate security, access control and
physical surveillance administration. AFIO members interested send
email for further information. (RJ)

ANNOUNCEMENT: EUGENE TIGHE MEMORIAL SCHOLARSHIP - The San
Diego Chapter has decided on a topic for the 1999 Tighe Memorial
Scholarship and will begin application packages to students in
August. The 1999 topic is: How should US intelligence assets be used
to fight illegal drug trafficking within, or into the US?

Since there are stipulations on essay format and an application to
complete, interested students at the post-secondary or graduate level
should write for a Tighe Scholarship package. A self-addressed
stamped envelope must accompany the request. Write to: Scholarship
Administrator, 1142 Miramonte Glen, Escondido, CA 92026. For further
info <www.fastweb.com> ref. scholarship ID#13999. (RJ)