Saturday, July 6, 2013

Should the Twins trade Glen Perkins?

The
Twins are doing better than expected in 2013, but after a five game losing
streak they find themselves 36-46 and 9 games out of first place. They hung in there for quite a while this
year and that is commendable as even though nobody with the Twins was willing
to admit it 2013 was always going to be a rebuilding year. The Twins classically overachieved over the
first three months and it left Twins fans wondering can this team be last years
Baltimore and just shock everyone. After
the last week we pretty much know the answer to that question. The Twins aren’t hitting and their bullpen
has imploded from overwork caused by the Starting staff doing so horribly the
first two months. With that being said
the reason for this article is to discuss whether the Twins should trade their
best pitcher Glen Perkins.

Glen Perkins was a 1st round draft pick out of
the University of Minnesota in 2004. He
came up as a starter and had 43 strarts between 2008 and 2009 where he went
18-11 with a 5.15 combined era. He then
got injured and split 2010 between AAA and the disabled list and had problems
with the Twins front office. So when he
came into 2011 most were counting the days until he would get traded as must
felt it would happen either in Spring Training or soon after. Instead he won a job out of the bullpen and
really hasn’t looked back since. Since
opening day 2011 until today Perkins has went 8-5 with a 2.34era in 167 games
along with 38 saves. To now being if not
the best than one of the best left handed closers in the game. He has established himself as likely the
second best player on the Twins behind Joe Mauer. With the Twins having a losing record the
question has to be asked should the Twins consider trading Glen Perkins?

First, let me state the reasons you don’t trade Glen
Perkins because there are many viable reasons why you say thanks, but no
thanks. The Twins are a year or two from
contending for the playoffs again if you believe in the prospects like I do. I believe they are playoff bound as early as
2015 so do you want to have to develop another closer when you have a developed
one already. The next one and likely the
biggest two reasons are first his age as he is only 30 years old and has
another 5-6 years of elite closing still to come. It appears he is just hitting his groove and
right now to be honest he is just about unhittable with a 95mph fastball and a
slider that is just filthy. Then there
is probably the number one reason why you don’t trade him and that is his
contract which is quite possibly the most team friendly contract in baseball. In
2013 he will make 2.5m, then in 2014 he will make 3.75m, In 2015 he will make
the same 3.75m, and finally the Twins have a team option at a robust 4.5m with
a 300,000 buyout. So for you math wizzes
out there he is guaranteed 10.3m the next 4 years, but more likely he will be
paid 14.5m for the next four years.
Compare that the other closer name that is brought up in trade
discussions and that is Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon who is owed 52m over
that same four year stretch if his option vests. I would have a hard time arguing that
Papelbon is better Perkins straight up let alone the difference in salaries and
I would much rather have Glen Perkins.
You may ask with all these reasons why are we even having this
discussion. For all the reasons why the
Twins should not consider trading Perkins I have some compelling reasons why
they should.

At this point you must think I am crazy for even
considering trading Glen Perkins and my reason is simple Law of Averages. I firmly believe that every pitcher only has
so many pitches in his arm before he is going to get hurt. Perkins is 30 years old and has not gotten
hurt in a major way and the Twins have been very lucky. Next, value as Glen Perkins value will never
ever be higher than it is right now. He
is under contract for four years and is a likely all-star and the Twins will
never get as much for him as they can right now. Twins fans are upset that the Twins did not
trade Josh Willingham last winter and now they can’t trade him. Just think for a minute the Twins decide not
to trade Perkins and in August he blows out his shoulder or elbow and the Twins
will be stuck with nothing. Finally,
what is the point of having a close down closer when the Twins are likely going
to lose 90+ games again. The biggest
reason I would trade Glen Perkins is what you could get for him. Buster Olney said if the Twins made Glen
Perkins available he would be the number 1 trade chip on the market. With that in mind the Twins could get a haul
for a team looking for a shutdown closer or a unhittable set-up man. We have heard the Tigers names mentioned and
Reusse and Mackey brought up a package that would get me excited of super power
outfielder Nick Castellanos and power closer Bruce Rondon for Perkins. I don’t know if you can get both for Perkins,
but I would definitely see. You hear
rumblings that the Rangers are letting teams know for the right package that
super prospect Jurickson Profar could possibly be had. You have teams like the Red Sox, Tigers,
Indians, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies that have some
interesting pieces that would look really good in a Twins uniform. I am not saying I would definitely trade Glen
Perkins, but if you can squeeze some of those young players out of a team I
would do it because to me seeing Nick Castellanos playing LF on a daily basis
is more appealing than having a closer sit at the end of the bullpen waiting
for chances that a young team likely can’t give him.

I asked a few baseball experts their
opinions on if I am crazy about trading Perkins and here is what they
said. Brandon Warne of 1500 Espn said, “No, I wouldn't trade
Perkins. And while it's conventional wisdom that a shutdown closer is a luxury
that should only be afforded to contending teams, it would be a PR mess to
trade him. Not only has Perkins turned
into one of the very best closers the Twins have ever had -- this year's 12.5
K/9 is second-best in team history -- but he's signed to an extremely affordable
contract that should allow him to be a part of the next good Twins run, which
should only be a couple years away.”
That is an interesting take as I get what he is saying, but to me PR
should have nothing to do this as I know he is a Minnesota guy and wants to be
here, but sometimes you have to make tough decisions and this is one of those
times you take the PR hit to make the future of the Twins brighter. I then asked the draft expert Jeremy Nygaard
of Twins Daily and he said, “I wouldn’t unless the return was mind
blowing.” I agree with Jeremy as Glen
Perkins is the Twins biggest trade asset so they need to get this right so not
trading him at all is better than trading him for a bad package. Finally, I asked Jim Crikket of Knuckleballs
blog his perspective and he said,” Not many players I’d refuse to trade, but
would take something pretty good to let Perkins go.” Pretty much everyone is in agreement that if
the Twins are going to let Perkins go they need a huge return. That is where we differ though as I feel the
longer they keep Perkins the better the chance of him getting hurt is. So at the end of the day if I am Terry Ryan
and I get an offer that makes me say wow that sounds pretty good he needs to
pull the trigger and worry about the fallout later. Let me know if you agree or disagree with
me. You can leave me a comment on here
or shoot me an email at texastwinsfan@gmail.com. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

1 comment:

I would be on board with trading Perkins for the simple fact that relief pitchers performance can be highly volatile from year to year, just look at Jared Burton's performance this year compared to last year. Another example is the number of closers that get replaced each year.