A while back I shared my formula for “assigning blame in a loss” (AKA “who to credit for a win.) Not sure if you remember, but it was the whole concept that a game hinges on a five run benchmark, or as I refer to it in some circles “the greater then or less then five rule”.

Well, I have another rule that I carry, and I am pretty sure that it will meet a round of boos, but I’m gonna share it…..

THE PROSPECT RULE

When a prospect fails to find significant time on the big league club within four years of starting his minor league career in “A” ball, then said prospect probably won’t be a star player.

There are two things we need to define in this rule…..

1) “Significant Time” means a starting position or damn near close. This is not a September call up.

2) I am not including time spent in Rookie ball or any other developmental stage. For our purposes the minor league career starts at low A.

3) A star player is somebody a franchise is built around. An All-Star not once or twice but perennially.

I created this rule because I got sick of hearing about all of the once uber talented prospects now toiling in the minors. The fans wait and wait and wait……well I don’t anymore. You get four years max.

Now for a challenge to the readers……

Find me one star player who spent more then four years in the minors to start their career. I am sure there is one out there somewhere and people love to prove a writer wrong. So fire away!

I thought about this while considering the recent success of Starlin Castro. He shows no signs of sophomore slump, or the evil darkness that smothers young future star ballplayers. Tyler Colvin is fighting the evil darkness as we speak…..one game winning hit at a time. Keep up the good fight Tyler!

Odds and Ends…..

-Mike Leake stole six t-shirts. Rumor is he put all of them on at once and forgot he was wearing them…..walked right out the front door Lohan style. That was joke, I am here all night folks.

-File this away in bizarre minor league nicknames. I am referring to the team that beat the Smokies.

-Randy Wells is playing catch. As long as I don’t see him whipping a towel around I will hold out hope.

-Did anybody know that we actually drafted Tim Lincecum? You learn something new everyday. Apparently he felt going to college and trying to boost his draft status was a better option…….jerk.

- Marlon Byrd is hitting .150 with runners in scoring position. He only has 4 RBI’s. He is our number three hitter……..nuff said…….

LOL at the Montgomery Biscuits. I googled their logo and it is indeed a happy smiling biscuit wearing gloves and cleats.

Mr. David M. Beyer

Hank Sauer. Doesn’t disprove your point — Sauer’s circumstances were pretty special — but I did it! Signed in ’38, he didn’t start until 1948. (See “Johnny Neun” in Bill James’ Guide to Baseball Managers.)

Buddy

Mariano Rivera is the first player who came to mind. I think he spent five or six years in the minors. However, my memory gets worse every year, so you might want to look it up.

http://mytimetowaste.com Rich Beckman

According to Baseball Reference Rivera was signed by the New York Yankees as an amateur free agent in 1990 and made his MLB debut May 23, 1995.

But this does not tell us when he started in A ball or above.

http://swantron.com jswanson

Piazza maybe? I seem to remember something about him getting signed because Lasorda owed his dad a favor.

MJ

I had a Montogmery Biscuits hat years ago. Loved that logo.

http://www.pepicellis.com Tom C

Does everyone have the same anti-spam word today in the comments, because it obviously refers to having Koyie Hill on the roster…its asinine and I kid you not!

Chet

Mariano Rivera started A ball in ’91 He was full time or real damn close in ’95 with a 5-2 record for new york. I think he passes the test at four years exactly.

Sauer is definitely a “different situation”….we call him an outlier. It seems a little war got in his way.

Dragon

Not to talk in the 3rd person but the Dragon mentioned the drafting of Lincecum in the comments section last week.

In terms of stars with at least four years of minor league experience, I think three players that were Rule V draftees (which means at least 4 years in the minors – A ball or higher by my limited research) were: Johan Santana, Dan Uggla and Josh Hamilton (though Hamilton of course had issues that caused the delay between drafting and stardom).

Chet

Dragon, not sure Uggla is a bonafide star player yet. He is a fine 2nd basemen don’t get me wrong, but a star? Would we compare him to Sandberg in his day? Maybe the jury is still out. He may need the rest of his career to be a star.

Santana is tricky because he spent part of 1997 in rookie ball which doesn’t count. He also pitched in 30 games for Minny in 2000 and 15 in 2001. 2002 he was full time for sure. He is close however.

Hamilton is anybodys guess…another outlier in a way.

chris in illinois

Don’t know if I’d go so far as to call Matt Stairs a star, but he does have 265 career homers and he had just shy of 3000 minor league plate appearances before he was up for good…nine seasons…

chris in illinois

Edgar Martinez had six and a half minor league seasons before he came up for good. He a star in my book.

Buddy

How about David Ortiz? If memory serves, he had a lengthy stay in the minors as well.

Chet

Edgar Martinez is legit….barely. He started the minors in 1983 and got called up in 87, and then in 88 he got a full time gig halfway thorugh the season.

Ortiz we will call legit also as he didn’t lock down a starting job until 2000. H actually had a starting job in 98 but lost it the next season. He started his minors in 1993 and bounced between majors and minors in 1997, 98,99. He even played 80 some games in 98. But lets say its legit.

http://www.pepicellis.com Tom C

now the anti-spam word is prior…is this Joe’s idea of a sick joke?

Doc Raker

Don’t tell me we drafter Lincecum the same year we drafted Smarja and gave him a $10M signing bonus. I wonder what kind of signing bonus we offered Lincecum?

Doc Raker

Manny Trillo spent 4+ years in the minors, that blows the doors off your theory.
The Cubs acquired Manny Trillo from the Oakland A’s in 1974, who did the Cubs send to Oakland?

BuckeyeLakerCub

Dragon beat me to it. I was going to say Johan, Uggla, and Hamilton.

So we drafted him in 2003 and he turned us down. Meh. It happens. Not much you can do about it. In 1985, the White Sox could have drafted Barry Bonds. Instead they drafted some guy who was out of baseball in 3 years and is now a department store salesman.

Doc Raker

Lee Smith was signed by the CUbs in 1975 and broke in to the bigs in 1980. He was pretty good.

chet

Raker,

He played his first season in A ball in 1976….rookie league does not count which is what he played in 1975.

Doc Raker

1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979 is 4 years. There is always an exception to a rule, but Manny Trillo can not be argued with. (Sarcasm, joke, tongue in cheek)

Chet

Yah Doc you are correct. But it was close.

Buddy

Manny Trillo to the Cubs in the Billy Williams deal?

Chris in illinois

Edgar had 32 ab’s in 1988 and had 172 in ’89…it was 1990 before he was any sort if regular.

http://swantron.com jswanson

I’m curious how time in the Randy Hudley League factors into this equation. Some of those guys can really rake.

Kris

Am I the only one who isn’t 100% sold on Starlin Castro yet? I still see him as a kid who perhaps got pulled to the bigs a smidge too early. Amazing potential, but he has enough mental errors that I am ready to either cheer or cringe with every play. Wait…that’s how I feel about Ramirez, too.

http://swantron.com jswanson

(yes)

Kris

Seriously…I cannot be the only one. Don’t get me wrong–I think he will be great. I just don’t think he is immune to rookie-ish mistakes.

And this is just cruel–my security word is “zambrano.” True story.

Buddy

I think Moises Alou spent more than four years in the minors as well. Maybe that’s where he learned to urinate on his hands.

Buddy

Reed Johnson just ran into one! Cubs win!

Seymour Butts

I know it may be transient, but….
THE CUBS ARE IN FIRST PLACE.
Take that SANDBERG.

Seymour Butts

Not exactly GOLF weather, but a win makes us all warm ( not sure about BLC in the night cap however).
Sorry to see Garza not get a win, and shaking my head that the Shark gets the win with his 2 innings of near disaster.

Buddy

The best thing about the Shark throwing two innings in game one is that we likely won’t see him in game 2.

Buddy

Well, we’re off to a bad start in game two of the doubleheader. Any chance Russell makes it five innings? Thank God tomorrow is an off day.

http://swantron.com jswanson

I’m with you Buddy. I really hope Grabow has hit the showers and called it a day as well. I’m hoping to see him out in the pen in khakis and a pea coat.
Hope Kid K can give us a few good innings today…

The only good thing about James Russell starting the game is that he’s not available in the bullpen that day.

Buddy

If James Russell is on your big-league roster, you absolutely 100 percent have to minimize the number of RHB he faces.

Doc Raker

You are correct Buddy, Manny Trillo for Billy Williams.

Doc Raker

Russell gave up 4 runs in 4 innings to the weakest offensive team in the bigs. Giving up a crooked number to the Padres should buy Russell a ticket on the 6PM bus to Des Moines. Problem is we have 4 other bullpen guys that should be on the 2PM bus to Des Moines.