Sunday, December 20, 2015

Trumped Up Thoughts

I've thought for some time that Trump was finished. I've never seen him as having a legitimate chance, but it strikes me now that his time is all but up. Here's why I think he has no chance.

Here's the thing most people forget about our system: it's all about math. When you add the Northeast/mid-Atlantic moderate states to the moderate West Coast to the big moderate states in the Rustbelt (like Illinois and Minnesota) and the islands (like Puerto Rico), you get 84% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. The track record of every one of these states is to vote for the most respectable candidate. This means the establishment candidate: Romney, W Bush, Dole, Bush Sr. Reagan. Forty-eight percent of the rest of the delegates are at large in one form or another. Most of these are elected officials at the state or federal level, and they vote based on schmoozing.

Now think about what this means.

First, not one of these states is going to vote for Trump. Even someone like Cruz is too fringe for them. Seriously, ask yourself if you can imagine any circumstances where Maryland, California, New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, Vermont or Minnesota are going to vote for Trump. Not happening. And since these states don't vote until later in the process, things will be sorted out among the moderate/establishment types before they vote and they will all vote for the same person, i.e. Bush or Rubio.

That means that Bush/Rubio will only need 16% more of the delegates to win. That can come from states like Florida and New Mexico or the at-large delegates who make up 33% of the rest of the delegates. Bush has been gathering these delegates for four years and seems to have the vast, vast majority of them rounded up. If these people do abandon Bush, his supporters will most likely go to Rubio.

This means that no matter how many of the remaining states Trump or Cruz or whoever wins, the race is already decided. It's only a question of whether or not Bush has blown it and handed the race to Rubio.

What this means is that all the horserace talk you hear about Trump and Cruz and the such is misguided. It is for entertainment purposes only... the race is over. The start of the race may seem like a genuine race, but it isn't. Iowa, a fringe theocracy, starts and will pick Trump or Cruz or Jesus. At that point, the talk radio crowd will crow about their guy winning, but it's an illusion. The front part of the race creates a sense that any candidate can win, but the only two that really matter are New Hampshire and Florida because they decide which establishment candidate will prevail. There just aren't enough delegates to overcome the states I outlined above.

This is why neither Trump nor Cruz nor any other crazy ever had a chance. Bush and Rubio and Christie are the establishment candidates (though Christie has fallen out of favor) and Bush has lined up the vast majority of delegates. Trump and Cruz and Carson and whoever-else have always just been competing for second place.

Now, let me tell you why Trump is done as compared to Cruz or some other anybody-but-the-establishment-candidate candidate. Trump's appeal has been the appeal of a tantrum. He's stupid, uninformed and lacks judgement. If people answer honestly, they would tell you that they wouldn't trust to handle anything that affected them personally. But he's spouting off the insults they want to spout off themselves. He's a catharsis. Unfortunately for him, that only gets you so far, and now that it's getting serious, the fringe is looking for a candidate who they consider serious. That means Cruz, though Cruz has issues.

What's more, Trump is now suffering from the biggest wound that someone in his position can suffer from: he's gotten boring. There is nothing left Trump can do to outrage to anger or to make his supporters feel all giddy. That means he's losing interest. The result has been that Cruz in getting a second look in places like Iowa and the South.

Anthony, Bush did an amazing job in collecting delegates, but he's fallen on his face since. His performance on the campaign trail to date has been likened to a sleepwalker and I think that's rather accurate... he acts like he just doesn't care. So for the past month or so, everything I've seen suggests that the establishment has lost faith in Bush and is switching to Rubio. Obviously, this is hard to say for sure, but I see evidence of it everywhere. In particular, there have been a steady stream of articles mentioning that one donor or another has shifted from Bush to Rubio.

In terms of Trump, there has been a marked shift in all the secondary indicators -- level of press coverage, how intensely his supporters defend him, how much attention he gets from the other candidates, the ability of competing candidates (i.e. Cruz) to get noticed, and even his mood (which has grown tired and sour). All of it suggests that he's become boring, and that is the kiss of death for a candidate/personality based on shock value. In fact, right now, Trump barely gets mentioned anymore whereas all the attention is on Cruz.

And again, all the coverage remains focused wrongly on Iowa, New Hampshire, Carolina, and talk radio land. What really matters are the big "moderate" states, where the establishment is almost unopposed. The rest is just for show.

Kit, Florida still matters because it's the big "moderate" state before other big states. Nevada has largely been ignored in the last few elections. I would expect Florida to be the decider this time, especially given that Rubio and Bush both claim ties to it.

I don't give the polls any credence. They are warped for a number of reasons: (1) too easy to send a message, (2) only small percentage of population is paying attention yet, (3) they are too easily manipulated, (4) they don't accurately get to who will vote, etc. Besides, the polling is focusing on the first handful of states, which really don't matter as they don't represent what will happen... and never have.

For those who prefer tea leaves to brass tacks, another sign that Trump is fading is the insistence from the far right that Trump's poll numbers must be better than reported because reasons, ranging from media suppression to the Bradley effect. Willful blindness doesn't often lead to accurate foresight.

I sure hope you are all right. But after spending countless hours in the echo chamber of the intransigent right-wingers' with their take-no-prisoners, either you with us 100% or ag'in us adherence to their doctrine of every shifting moral outrage over everything....PHEW...I am not comfortable enough yet to assume that Trump won't win the nomination. He is the candidate for the raging outragers with the other candidate for them is Ted Cruz. But at least Ted Cruz has a sense of humor...LINK

About Trump and Putin.... I don't think most 'right-wingers' put as much stock in the Trump comments on Putin like most believe they do. Wasn't it Hillary/Obama that had the "reset" with him? Or W that thought he could do business with him?

I think they all realize that Putin looks out for his country first and foremost and that the 'realpolitick' means we must deal with him. Maybe Trump opened the bidding with Putin by setting the table for future dealings. Just because we had a feckless SoS and President who were constantly rolled by Putin doesn't mean that Trump and/or any Repub would be snookered by him, regardless of any asinine comments.

So, to be honest, his comments on Putin sound similar to all his comments so far. Self-aggrandizing. get the media attention, bring the subject to the table in order for the media to start contrasting Trump's comments with the current admin's approach. So far, their record is not something to be held up as "smart power," their protestations to the contrary.

I think the main reason for the "right-wingers" being enamored of Trump, is that they are sick and tired of Obama and his idiocy that they finally have someone who's not afraid to say outrageous things. Look at MTP yesterday where he called Hillary! a liar. No pushback from the press on that, due to Trump's history of making these type comments.

And BTW, the "fringe" appears to agree with Trump on most of his points, as evidenced by the polls. So if the majority of those polled are just the "fringe" then what is the mainstream beliefs? The Dems position? Hardly.

"I think they all realize that Putin looks out for his country first and foremost and that the 'realpolitick' means we must deal with him. Maybe Trump opened the bidding with Putin by setting the table for future dealings."

With all due respect, that's a load of bullshit.

Trump defended Putin. He defended Putin and made excuses for him.

When it was first pointed out to Trump that Putin had had journalists killed he said, using an argument that has been used by leftists since the early days of the Cold War to defend marxist regimes, "America has killed lots of people, too."

And now is claiming there is no proof. Which is true, in the sense there is no "proof" that the KGB was responsible for creating the "US Government created AIDS" conspiracy but the evidence, though circumstantial, points in a direction.

When journalists, whistleblowers, and dissidents critical of a regime are arrested on vague charges of embezzlement, die mysteriously, or nearly die poisoning, one starts asking serious questions about the regime itself.

Imagine if a Republican candidate in 1980 declared "There is no proof that the USSR has any gulags or forced labor camps" would any one think that he might stand up to the Soviets?

Kit.....I guess it depends on what each of them see as the end game. Will Trump cave to Putin when it comes to US affairs or will he defend our interests? I think he will defend our interests (as will most Reps) immensely stronger than the current idiots.

I don't think Trump will willingly cede power and respect to foreign powers, no matter what he states now.

Now, I could be totally mistaken by the man, but I really don't think he truly believes Putin is blameless. I think he's just trolling the press again so that he can "maintain his ratings" as it were.

And no, I'm not a Trump-lover. He's not my first or even second choice. But would I vote for him if he ends up the Rep nominee? Over 'She who shall not be named?" You're damn right I would. To prevent another Dem from ruining this country...anytime. And I have never voted for a Rep or a Dem for President, and I've voted in every election since 1972.

So, I could really care less what Trump says. He succeeds in getting everyone discussing him, and that I believe is what is driving him. Trump-haters will jump on his ridiculous utterances and he wins that round again.

Who knows....maybe he's trying to set up his "Trump Russia" franchise once this show is over?!

First, I don't think foreign policy issues have ever mattered unless we are in a serious war (i.e. WWII) and the public is looking for a war leader.

Secondly, I suspect the public sees Putin as a mixed bag. On the one hand, he's a turd and he's an obvious problem. On the other hand, he's the only guy who seems willing to drop a massive amount of bombs on the bad guys. That seems to give the public some comfort with him. Not enough to trust him, but enough to want him to continue blowing things up for us.

Kit, Trump really is a dangerous turd. Mostly, he doesn't bother me however, because he's leading a country that is slowly slipping away to irrelevancy. I am worried that his little clowndom has nuclear weapons, but I don't see Putin as crazy so much as irresponsible.

I wish we had someone competent as SOS or President to expose Putin for what he is. Unfortunately, we have Effete le Pew as SOS and Narcissus as President. Neither of which has the gravitas of a used tissue.

My problem w/ Trump is that I have no idea what he will do. In a weird way, he is a bit like Jeb in that regard.

Jeb talks vague touchy-feely platitudes about growth that are intended to sound monkish but seem remarkably light substance-wise while Trump shouts of angry platitudes about MEXICO and CHINA and how WE AREN'T WINNING ANYMORE but never really offers anything substantial.

And Jeb at least seems to know what he's talking about, even if he comes across as George McFly (before he grew a pair). Trump, on the other hand, never seems to have anything like a firm grasp of the issues beyond, "This does well among some conservatives."

That is why I don't trust Trump at all. Now, if it came down to Hillary vs. Trump, I honestly have no idea.

BTW, I think it's hilarious that Hillary was late to the debate because she wouldn't use the bathroom at the same time as a staffer for another campaign. Is that truly someone you can trust to run the country if they can't pee while other people are in the room?

So I am confused. What is it that you all want so badly that you didn't get from Clinton #1, Bush #1, Bush #2? They all managed to work with an opposition Congress very well. We didn't get everything we wanted, but we neither did our opposition.

I leave out Obama because he is NOT like any of the others. He has NEVER been able to even admit there is an opposition party or that he had to work with them in any way. He has uniquely spent his entire administration demeaning, degrading, and demoralizing the American people and at the same time has demeaned the Office of the President of the United States and our Constitution.

So, what IS it that you want in a leader? Damned if I can tell anymore.

Bev, I would like someone who cares about the American public more than the Fortune 500. I want someone who doesn't feel the need to apologize to the rest of the world for our public. I want someone who wants to reshape government to be (1) smaller and cheaper, but (2) more efficient and effective. I want someone who wants people to shoot for the American dream rather than being economic inputs. I want someone who understand that a great America means a great world, rather than someone who thinks America needs to be stand quietly as we find a wold consensus with people who would turn the world to sh*t it they could.