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The William Hill chain of sports books in Nevada have opened Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski as 11-to-2 (+550) co-favorites to win Sunday’s GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono Raceway, the second and final event of the season on the 2.5-mile “Tricky Triangle’. The winner of the first event, Dale Earnhardt Jr., has been set as the fifth choice to win at 8-to-1 odds.

The great thing about handicapping this race is that there are two really good pieces of data to use that will help determine who has the best chances of winning. You can begin by referring back to the June 6 race at Pocono, then layer those results with Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis. Both tracks are very similar because they feature the longest straigtaways in the series.

Four drivers had top-10 finishes at both 2.5-mile tracks -- which is a lower than usual number between the two tracks heading into the second Pocono race --, but it’s still a good starting point. Surprisingly, Johnson, who is tied with Keselowski with a series-leading three wins on the season, isn’t one of the four. The three-time Pocono winner was sixth in June and 14th last week at Indy. He has an 8.7 average finish over his career at Pocono and is using the same chassis from June.

Keselowski has a 12.3 average finish in nine career starts at Pocono, winning in 2011 and finishing runner-up to Earnhardt Jr. in June when he led a race-high 95 laps. He’ll be using his 10th-place Charlotte chassis from May.

Jeff Gordon is fresh off his Brickyard win and comes in at 7-to-1 odds along with Kevin Harvick, who is looking for his first career Pocono win. Gordon is a six-time winner at Pocono with the last coming in 2012. He was second in this race last season and eighth in June. He’ll be using his same chassis from June, which also won at Kansas and was sixth at Kentucky. On the basis of his win last week and having a car the team feels very confident with, Gordon is one of the better choices to win on Sunday.

The only driver to finish in the top-five at both Pocono and Indy races this season is Denny Hamlin, and after his crew chief and car chief each got handed a six-race suspension and the team was fined 75 points for their creative engineering following their failed Indy post-race inspection, you have to wonder how valid the first Pocono run was. The team had been struggling all season to find speed on the big horsepower tracks. You have to do what you can to push the envelope to find speed, and they pushed a little too far. Of course, it’s only cheating if you get caught.

Even with the suspensions, Hamlin should still get around the track well like he’s done over his entire career there. He’s a four-time winner at Pocono, including sweeping the first two races of his rookie 2006 season. His natural driving ability helps him get in and out of the flat turn 3 better than most. It’s the trickiest of all the turns, and Hamlin has handled it well. Hamlin is 10-to-1 to win this week, along with two-time Pocono winner Kasey Kahne and 2012 winner Joey Logano.

Kurt Busch is 15-to-1 to win on Sunday, lower odds than usual for the driver of the No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. He won at Pocono is 2005 and has finished third or better in four of his past six starts there. Since NASCAR began compiling loop data in 2005 (19 races), Busch is the third highest rated (105.5) at Pocono behind Hamlin (109.0) and Johnson (108.7). He’ll be using his same chassis from June that started second and finished third.

The driver with the longest odds that presents to best opportunity to cash is rookie Kyle Larson, who was fifth at Pocono in June and seventh Sunday at the Brickyard. William Hill has posted him at 20-to-1 odds.