Thaksin's political predictions from Beijing

While in Beijing, ousted and fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra recently made a number of political predictions and comments worth considering.

The caretaker Yingluck Shinawatra government is fighting a difficult battle but the international community sees what the government is doing as correct.

l Thaksin said the numerous legal cases with independent organisations were having a negative impact on the administration and the international community was closely watching whether there would be a repeat of the September 19, 2006 coup.

l Thaksin believes there will be no repetition of the military coup because the top brass has learnt from the negative repercussions which accompanied the 2006 coup, chiefly the political upheaval that followed in 2009-10 and today. In fact, he claimed the armed forces were secretly brokering dialogue between both sides but no deal had been struck yet due to their inability to resolve some contentious issues.

l Thaksin said the February 2 election would likely be annulled and the Democrat Party would compete in a fresh election, with the ruling Pheu Thai Party winning.

On this matter, at least, Thaksin is quite accurate, as a source close to Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva says the party will definitely take part if there's a new election (Election law stipulates that any political party not competing in two consecutive elections shall be banned).

What's more, the Democrat Party can also use the national reform momentum as a way to push who ever wins to commit themselves to some form of reform after the election.

Thaksin sees the old elite, the armed forces and independent organisations as fully supportive of the Democrat Party and believes if the Democrats take part in the election, conflict will be resolved through the ballot box.

Even though Thaksin believes the Pheu Thai Party will lose some seats as a result, they will still win enough seats in the North and the Northeast to form the next government.

l Thaksin said Yingluck rejected his choice of advisers and aides and those she chose were not experienced enough and were outmanoeuvred by her opponents.

Yingluck wishes to have her own team although she accepted the recommendations of her older brother's advisers at the beginning, but her team is undeniably less experienced than that of her elder brother's or her opponents.

l Thaksin acknowledged that there are a few people who are sincere toward him, while some others have acted out of their own interests and sabotaged him. Some of these people, he said, used his name to carry out some activities for their own gain and caused a negative impact on his name while Yingluck failed to rein in these people as she was not experienced enough.

l Thaksin said people with a good reputation were not coming out in public to help the Pheu Thai Party while those coming out did not have a good reputation.

Some of these "good" people are not speaking out because they claim that Yingluck's aides have prevented them from airing their views.

On the other hand, Thaksin said, there were people who wanted to become popular and please him but are making the wrong moves in public.

Thaksin concluded by saying that the most important duty of the caretaker administration was to keep the government afloat until a new election or until a government was formed from the February 2 election.