The resurgence of the Congress and its partners is stunning in the more
populous east and north where the swing ratios are as high as 4.17 and
3.38 per cent.

With the emergence of a fiercely competitive bipolar divide (the Congress+allies vs the BJP+allies) across the country, losses for the NDA will end up as gains for the Congress and its allies. The resurgence of the Congress and its partners is stunning in the more populous east and north where the swing ratios are as high as 4.17 and 3.38 per cent. The situation is paradoxical in the west and south where, despite the NDA's increasing popularity, the Congress and its allies are acquiring modest gains.

Turfed out of the Hindi heartland states in the past decade, the Congress comeback appears particularly strong in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Delhi. Ditto in Orissa, Jharkhand, West Bengal, even Kerala. It may be heartening for the Congress that the party is gaining all over the country, mopping up many more of the NDA losses compared even to its allies. In Bihar, for instance, the Congress is gaining while its ally, the RJD, is losing votes.

A damper amid all this good news is that the positive swing for the Congress and its allies is not strong enough to help the alliance form a decisive majority. The poll predicts more than a 40-seat gain for the Congress-led alliance. But unless the party begins courting friends and influencing potential allies, even the best case outcome will result in a hung Parlia-ment. The obvious alliance targets for the Congress are the SP in Uttar Pradesh, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the JMM in Jharkhand, regional parties that are gaining ground in their respective states.

Ajit Kumar JhaAugust 2003

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