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Does anyone think Little Carmine's retaliation for the Lorraine and Jason hit will be a be succsess. I think that Little Carmine is weak and that he might try to retaliate but I don't think it will work. Like it has been said Johnny Sack is a snaky f--- and I think he will get to Little Carmine before he makes a move. I was just wondering I know this isn't the first thread about this but after seeing the way Little Carmine reacted after the call he just seemed weak and almost afraid of Phil and Johnny.

yes, Lil Carmine didnt look too confident when Angelo told him Lorraine got whacked. Tony has pointed out that Sack will probably be on top and after seeing Carmine's reaction, it would seem so. I don't think Carmine has enough to be able to hit Sacks directly right now, but I can see him going after one of Sack's good earners, since Loraine was just a bookie and didn't seem to have any rank. Once the heavy hitters start to fall, like captains and their crew, then the war has started and things in the NY family will clearly have a leader in the end, Johnny Sack.

Johnny Sack is far more well established since he was the underboss and I think has more respect from the majority in NY.

Little Carmine obviously has some support too as we have seen, his supporters are only loyal to him because of his father and there seems to be less of them.

So far Johnny Sack always seems to be one step ahead of Little Carmine, I don't really see this changing. Sack knows the game and how to get things done, Carmine is weak and hasn't even been around NY for a while so I think he is more out of the loop.

At first this season I thought for sure that Johnny would take over, and to tell you the truth, I still think that he probably will. But, it seems that Little Carmine has just as many followers on his side as Johnny. Johnny having Phil, and his little crew, and Little Carmine having Angelo Garepe, and Rusty on his side. These are all the NY guys we are really introduced to. As of right now it seems that there is potential for a fair fight. And they both seem to be determined.

I agree cipriani, however if he is asked for help from either of the two, and he turns them down it could be very bad. Especially if the one that asks him ends up on top. And if it is Johnny this would be two times he turned down Sack. I could see that being really bad for NJ/NY relations.

I disagree Ciprianni, I think it would be in the best interest of the Soprano family to take a side. Although Tony has admitted to taking a more Sun Tzu-oriented approach to situations than a Machiavellian one, there is a whole section in "The Prince" that addresses situations exactly like the one facing NJ:

"A prince is further esteemed when he is a true friend or a true enemy, when, that is, he declaes himself without reserve in favour of some one or against another. This policy is always more useful than remaining neutral. For if two neighbouring powers come to blows, they are either such that if one wins, you will have to fear the victor, or else not. In either of these two cases it will be better for you to declare yourself openly and make war, because in the first case if you do not declare yourself, you will fall a prey to the victor, to the pleasure and satisfaction of the one who has been defeated, and you will have no reason nor anything to defend you and nobody to receive you. For, whoever wins will not desire freinds whom he suspects and who do not help him when in trouble, and whoever loses will not receive you as you did not take up arms to venture yourself in his cause.
And it will always happen that the one who is not your friend will want you to remain neutral, and the one who is your friend will require you to declare yourself by taking arms. Irresolute princes, to avoid present dangers, usually follow the way of neutrality and are mostly ruined by it."

He goes on to note:

"And here it should be noted that a prince ought never to make common cause with one more powerful than himself to injure another, unless necessity forces him to it, as before said; for if he wins you rest in his power, and princes must avoid as much as possible being under the will and pleasure of others."

With Sack in control of the Lupertazzi family, the Soprano family will continue to have to share profits on the lucrative Esplanade projects. In addition, Johnny frequently sticks his beak into NJ business despite claims to the contrary. Also, Sack has mentioned twice now his resentment with Tony for refusing him help last year and this resentment could turn turn sour if left unchecked (knowing Johnny's capacity to hold a grude; look how close Ralph came).
If Little Carmine were to come out on top on the other hand, it would be just barely and he would be in no position to make any demands whatsoever on the Soprano family. He could only do this with Tony's help however, and would therefore be indebted and with continued reliance on the Soprano family. Little Carmine would in this position, be easy to influence by Tony and unable to stop him from sticking his beak in NY business.

I'm not saying Tony will take sides, just explaining why I think it's the wisest course of action for him to take.

Very good points; I repeatedly point out that deep down, Tony wants Lil' Carmine to be the victor of this power struggle. The best bet Tony has right now is to stay neutral; there is no way he can oppose Johnny Sack and not feel his wrath later on, and since Johnny isnt really asking for any help from Tony, he should stay out as long as he can. Remember, war is a last resort for these people; it is the worst possible thing that can happen from a business point of view. After 12 people got whacked in (a very similiar situation) the Colombo war of the early 90's, about 80 people were indicted and sent to prison.