There's a chance Long remains the better pick when their careers are over

Clearly one of the games elite left tackles, but there has to be concern that… (Robert Duyos/Sun Sentinel )

December 9, 2012|By Chris Perkins

We’re going to play a game called “Jake Long or…”.

But first, some background.

I admit it, I’m a fan of Dolphins left tackle Jake Long. And I still think the Dolphins did the right thing selecting him No. 1 overall in the 2008 draft.

I look at it like this: until Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, the No. 3 pick that year, leads the Falcons to the Super Bowl, or until Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, the No. 18 pick, leads the Ravens to the Super Bowl, Long, a four-time Pro Bowl selection in four years, remains a good No. 1 pick.

A quarterback’s No. 1 job is to lead his team to the Super Bowl. If Ryan or Flacco doesn’t ever do that, can you really say he’s been more productive than Long, who you’d have to say right now is a borderline Hall of Famer?

I understand it’s a quarterback’s league. I understand no left tackle has ever led his team to the Super Bowl. But we’re talking about a possible Hall of Famer in Long.

It raises an interesting question in a broader sense. Can a Hall of Fame offensive lineman be more valuable, over the long term, than a quarterback who never leads his team to a Super Bowl?

I think in many cases the answer is yes. San Diego quarterback Dan Fouts immediately comes to mind as an exception. He’s a legend and a Hall of Famer. He never led his team to a Super Bowl, but I’d rather have him than any Hall of Fame offensive lineman. But go through history, mix eras if you’d like, and the choice gets tougher.

My conclusion is there are eight quarterbacks I’d definitely take instead of Long, seven quarterbacks I could go either way, and 17 quarterbacks, more than half of the starters in the 32-team NFL, that don’t measure up to Long, and probably won’t over the next few years.

Does Long deserve quarterback money? You decide. His body seems to be breaking down. There’s no telling if he’ll still be playing at a (borderline) Hall of Fame level in four or five years.

My colleague, Omar Kelly, raises another more important question: would the Dolphins be better off if they had selected Ryan instead of Long? I’d have to say yes, because they’d have their franchise quarterback.

However, we’ll have to look again when their careers are over. I go back to my original point: if Ryan doesn’t lead the Falcons to the Super Bowl, and Long is a Hall of Fame-caliber player, I’d say the Dolphins are justified in their choice.

I’m not sure how much money Long deserves. But he remains an elite player. He was a good No. 1 pick in 2008. And right now I’d rather have Long than most starting quarterbacks in the NFL.