Gary Doran

Advanced Stats Report: Oregon

As we continue our Advanced Stats Report series, we look at the following graphs exhibiting how the Devils and their first Pac-12 North foe, the Oregon Ducks (the Sun Devils eighth opponent on the 2015 schedule), match-up by the numbers.

Offensive Production

In the 2014 season, Oregon was pretty consistent in scoring points each month as the season wore on, however, in 2013 the Ducks averaged over 55 points per game in their first eight games and less than 30 points per game in their final four games that season

The 238 points the Ducks scored in the second quarter of their games in 2014 was more than 13 FBS teams scored in all the quarters in all their games in the 2014 season

The 42 rushing touchdown the Oregon Ducks scored in the 2014 season was the most in the conference, and nearly matched the total of the next two highest teams, (UCLA-26 and Utah-21)

In the 2014 season, the Duck offense threw 18 touchdown passes in five games against North Division foes and only 13 touchdown passes in five games against South Division foes.

In the 2012 season, the Ducks averaged 81.5 offensive plays per game, in the 2013 season the average was 74.8 plays per game and last year the average was 74.5 per game

Even with the importance of Marcus Mariota’s passing and running for the Duck’s offense in the 2014 season, he was only involved in roughly half of the offensive plays, ( 580/1118)

In the three championship games the Ducks play during the 2014 season, they averaged 577 yards per game, while averaging 540 yards per game in the regular season.

In the 2014 season, the Ducks average over 520 yards per game against seven ranked opponents

The Ducks only lost two games in the 2014 season, but in those games, they averaged only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, whereas they averaged 5.7 yards per carry in the 13 games they won

In the first half of the games for the Ducks in the 2014 season, they averaged 6.0 yards per carry, while in the second half they averaged only 4.9 yards per carry

In the 2014 season, the Ducks averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt in the first half of their games and 10.9 yards per attempt in the second half

In the five games against North Division foes in the 2014 season, the Ducks averaged 11.2 yards per pass attempt and only 8.5 yards per attempt in five games against South Division foes

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Duck offense completed over 75 percent of their passes, then 66 percent the rest of the season

In the 2014 season, the Ducks completed 66 percent of their passes in the first half of their games and 73 percent in the second half

In the regular 2104 season, the Duck offense only threw two interceptions in 360 pass attempts in twelve games, whereas in the three championship games the Ducks also threw two interceptions in only 114 pass attempts

In the two games Oregon lost during the 2014 season, they averaged converting only 23.0 percent of their third down opportunities compared to 53.5 percent of their opportunities in the 13 games they won

In the 2014 season, the Duck offense converted 56.3 percent of their third down opportunities in Aug/Sep, 50.0 percent of their chances in Oct., 48.1 percent of their chances in Nov., and 42.9 percent after the regular season

In the 2014 season, the Oregon offense converted 59.4 percent of their third down chances against eight unranked opponents and only 38.0 percent of their chances against seven ranked opponents

In the 2014 season, the Oregon offense scored red zone touchdowns 76.5 percent of their chances in games at home and only 56.5 percent of their chances on the road

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Oregon offense scored a red zone touchdown in 76.2 percent of their red zone chances, in next four games they scored in 66.7 percent of their chances, in the last four games of the regular season they scored in 60.9 percent of their chances, in the three championship games after the regular season, they scored in 55.6 percent of their chances

Defensive Output

In the regular season in 2014, the Oregon defense averaged giving up just over 23 points per game, while in the three championship games that season, they still averaged giving up about the same amount of points at 25 per game.

In the 2014 season, Oregon and ASU mirrored each other in when they gave up points in their games, as both teams allowed the fewest points in the first quarter, the second fewest in the third quarter, then in the second and fourth quarters they were still very close in what they gave up

Almost 70 percent of the rushing touchdowns the Duck defense allowed in the 2014 season happened in road games

In the 2014 season, the Oregon defense allowed eight touchdown passes in the first four games, six touchdown passes in the next four games and only four touchdown passes in the final four games of the regular season

In the 2014 season, the Oregon defense faced nearly a 50-50 split of running and passing plays

The Oregon defense faced 25 fewer plays against the Arizona Wildcats in the championship game than in the regular season game in October in the 2014 season

In the 2014 season, the Duck defense averaged giving up 429.7 yards per game in the regular season and almost the same amount in the three championship games at 430.0 yards per game

In the 15 games the Ducks played in the 2014 season, they gave up an average of 468.2 yards per game to the five non-conference foes, an average of 432.2 yards per game to five North Division foes and an average of only 387.6 yards per game to five South Division foes

In the 2014 season, the Duck defense gave up an average of about 4.5 yards per carry in the first half of their games and less than 4.0 yards per game in the second half

Although they weren’t behind that often in the 2014 season, when they were behind, the Duck defense only allowed an average of 3.7 yards per carry, while when they were ahead or tied, they allowed an average of 4.3 yards per carry

In the first four games of the regular 2104 season, the Duck defense allowed an average of 7.1 yards per pass attempt, the next four regular season games the defense allowed an average of 6.6 yards per pass attempt and in the last four games of the regular season, the defense allowed 6.5 yards per pass attempt

Although the Oregon defense only faced 45 pass attempts when they were trailing in a game in the 2014 season, they allowed an average of 10 yards per pass attempt

In the three championship games in the 2104 season, the Duck defense only allowed 55.7 percent of opponents passes to be completed, while they allowed 61.3 percent to be completed in the regular season

When their opponents faced a fourth down situation in the 2014 season, the Oregon defense allowed their opponents to complete over 70 percent of their pass attempts

In the three championships games in the 2014 season, the Duck defense only allowed 37.0 percent of opponent third down opportunities to be converted, while it allowed 43.4 percent of opponents opportunities in the regular season to be converted

In home game in the 2012 season, the Duck defense allowed 32.1 percent of opponent third down chances to be converted for a first down, in the 2013 season, the average was 38.0 percent and in the 2014 season the average was 44.7 percent

In the two games the Ducks lost in the 2014 season, the defense allowed it opponents to score eight red zone touchdowns in ten tries for an 80 percent conversion rate and in the games they won, the red zone touchdown conversion rate was only 59 percent

In the game against California last year, the Bears entered Oregon’s red zone six times and scored a touchdown every time. In the Pac-12 Championship game against Arizona, the Wildcats never entered the Oregon red zone.

In the first four games in the 2014 season, the Duck defense registered an average of 7.75 TFLs per game, in the next four games the defense registered 6.75 TFLs per game and in the last four games of the regular season they registered only 5.00 TFLs per game

In the 2014 season, the Ducks and the Sun Devils had about the same number of TFLs, however, 58 percent of the TFLs for the Ducks came from their linebackers, while only 41 percent of the Devils TFLs came from their linebackers. The big difference came from the defensive backs, where 29 percent of the TFLs for ASU came from this group and only 15 percent for the Ducks

In the 2014 season, the Duck defense registered over 35 percent of their sacks against two teams; Wyoming and Arizona.

With the exception of Oct. 2013, the Duck defense averages fewer and fewer sacks per game each month over the past three years as the season wears on.

In the nine regular season games in 2014, the Duck defense picked off an opponent pass once every 56.6 passes, while in the three championship games they picked off a pass once every 32.3 passes

In the 2014 season, the Duck defense intercepted a pass against a ranked opponent an average of once every 27.3 passes, but intercepted a pass against an unranked opponents an average of only once every 83.8 passes

What the Numbers Say

The Oregon offense appears to be clicking on all cylinders. From a statistical viewpoint, the offense is fairly consistent in the different offensive categories under many different situations. Additionally, the offensive numbers weren’t hampered too much the past season by playing three championship games, especially in the playoff series.

The defense as with the offense appeared fairly consistent, especially against some solid opponents towards the end of the 2014 season. As with any team when looking at it from a statistical standpoint, there are always clinks here and there, but most of the defensive clinks do not seem to be major issues.

The big question the rest of the conference is asking: can the Ducks maintain their elite offense with the changeover at quarterback and their somewhat steady defense with the loss of some defensive standouts. Only time will tell, but at the present time, things do look lush in Oregon.

About Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!