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This week's front-page poll: When, If At All, Do You Think the Switch Will Overtake the Xbox One in Console Sales?

Responses to these sorts of questions several years down the line are often fascinating to read through in hindsight on the forums. So I thought it'd be a good idea to do one as a poll, so we can see when site visitors think the Switch will overtake the Xbox One (if at all) as of July 2018.

I don't think Switch will do 20mm in 2019. Though many systems peak in year 3 or 4, I think the poor performance of the Wii U actually pulled Switch sales earlier into the generation. People were hungry for new Nintendo hardware. Also, they used two of their big guns early - Zelda and 3D Mario (I know Zelda isn't generally a huge system seller, but the incredible reviews of BotW likely helped it move more units). One of the other big guns is being used this year - Smash. There's also that Let's Go Pokemon thing that will bring many of the core Pokemon players into Switch this year, if they're not already owners. That means next year's traditional Pokemon won't have the same system selling power that it otherwise would have. After that, we have Kart 9 and the next 2D Mario. But, fans of those games are probably already owners. With all of this said, I'm thinking 2018 may be the peak sales year.

I should point out that I'm not predicting a massive decline in sales after 2018. But, it may be in the 15-18 million range next year. If so, it won't catch XBone until 2020, possibly late in the year.

I'd say the second half of 2019. Switch isn't going to make 20m this fiscal year, but hardware sales will accelerate in 2019 and beyond. The XB1, on the other hand, will only decline in sales going forward. If I am off then it will be early 2019 instead of late 2019, but I am still leaning toward 2nd half of 2019.