4. The way
forward

4.1 Orientation of the Chinese
aquaculture policies

4.1.1 Development through market
economy and openness to trade

China is expected to continue the implementation of its
time-tested policies, which started in 1980 and which emphasize and promote
aquaculture as a sustainable system of food production. The Chinese aquaculture
is also expected to become more open to the outside world. The new Fishery Law
emphasizes aquaculture as one of the major components of the countrys
fishery and local economies. The Government will place more emphasis on
aquaculture management at the macro level, with particular attention being given
to regulating expansion and intensification of the industry. With Chinas
entry to membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Government will
ensure that the aquaculture sector, including the production and processing
subsectors, is duly strengthened and maintained. The goal is to increase the
share of the Chinese aquaculture products in international markets.

4.1.2 China as a source of new
aquaculture technologies

China is likely to remain the leader in the development of new
aquaculture technologies in Asia. Through the introduction and extension of new
technologies, and new species and strains, it is expected that per unit yield
will increase considerably. The species combinations for production will also be
managed to optimize production by responding to market demands.

The aquaculture sector will further improve through promoting
better management, implementing "green" certification (eco-certification) and
providing professional training. Further, the continuous development of new
technologies will promote the refinement and advancement of the system of
fisheries research and extension. Possible areas of future scientific research
and development include offshore and deep-water cage culture, intensive farming,
health management, and feeding and nutrition.

4.1.3 Environmental
protection

Currently, all levels of the Government are paying greater
attention to the regulation of agricultural, industrial and manufacturing
processes, and municipal sewage disposal systems, with a view to monitoring
their levels of compliance with government regulations on pollution abatement.
Governmental departments are also closely monitoring farm, industrial and
municipal discharge and waters, as well as other agricultural runoffs and
effluents. The goal is to ensure that they are not being discharged without
prior treatment or entering other waterways, especially in aquaculture
zones.

In the future, aquaculture in China is expected not only to be
environmentally friendly, but also rational, healthy, non-polluting and
sustainable. Aquaculture needs clean water to thrive. With sound management, the
latter can be self-cleaning. However, although marine cage farming and coastal
shrimp farming can cause environmental pollution, to-date there is no specific
plan of action and/or sound management system in place to safeguard the
environment. The Government is working towards establishing such a plan. Steps
have also been made in developing appropriate management strategies through
adoption of the precautionary principle approach, as embodied in the Food and
Agriculture Organizations Code of Conduct for ResponsibleFisheries. In addition, prevention of non-point sources of pollution
affecting aquaculture, mainly resulting from land wastes, is planned. It will be
achieved through suitable awareness building and implementation of regulatory
control programs by the responsible authorities. There are also plans to enforce
remedial actions for environmental restoration applied in the past.

4.2 Future of aquaculture
supply

The future of aquaculture in China looks bright. The
Governments commitment and support of the sector is strong. Fishery and
aquatic resources and, in particular, aquaculture, continue to be of high
priority, and fishery interests take precedence over other sectors of the
national economy. The contribution from capture fisheries to total fish
production is unlikely to increase within the foreseeable future. The demand for
fishery products is growing, both within China and internationally. Policy
initiatives and investments in aquaculture are likely to promote the continued
growth of the sector and the supply of aquatic products, not only to meet the
domestic demand, but also to support the growing international export
market.

The features and achievements of Chinese aquaculture
previously discussed attest to the economic worth of aquaculture, and a strong
aquaculture policy can be invaluable to drive the engine of growth for any
developing country economy. Total output of aquaculture production is expected
to continuously increase until 2005. According to the national 10th
"Five-Year Plan", the total production of fisheries will reach 46 million
mt, of which 65 percent will be from aquaculture, or 29.9 million mt. This
increase will be not only in terms of quantity, but also through quality
improvement. This means that new species or varieties of high quality and high
commercial value will account for such a higher ratio.

On the technical side, there are three main plausible ways of
achieving these expectations: development of freshwater integrated farming and
paddy-fish culture, development of marine aquaculture and implementation of
participatory community extension services. Based on Chinese experiences in
aquaculture, paddy-fish culture is a practical and economic way of increasing
output of both fish and paddy. Paddy cultivation is an ecological model of the
"large agriculture" system of production. With the increase in fish production,
it is possible to decrease the use of pesticides and at the same time, improve
the quality of the land. The net income from the fishery is at least twice that
from paddy alone.

In marine aquaculture, sea ranching techniques, which include
restocking of seed and habitat enhancement and improvement, are excellent ways
to recolonize coastal fishing grounds for the benefit of coastal inhabitants
through participatory community management of the marine protected areas. In
China, several species like shrimp, abalone, scallop, mullet, large yellow
croaker and others have been tried. The results indicate that sea ranching is
suitable to protect natural resources and to increase fishery production with
present management knowledge.

Because most aquaculture systems are in rural areas where
poverty is widespread and endemic and illiteracy high, extension services are a
necessity. Promoting participatory community extension services will create
bridges to the scientific community and provide benefits from research. Such
participatory linkages between the farming and scientific communities will
foster and propagate practical skills and knowledge in both communities, so that
future aquaculture research will not only be relevant, but will directly solve
the problems faced by farmers.

There is increasing resistance to the production of certain
aquaculture species that are destined only to select export markets where the
purchasing power of these consumers is already very high. This is because of
past experiences where, in the pursuit of high profits, the integrity of the
production environment was compromised, with deleterious effects on the
environment and the marginalization and impoverishment of the people living in
surrounding areas.

4.3 Future demand for aquaculture
products

There is good potential of increasing the share of Chinese
aquaculture products in both the domestic and international markets. The
explanation lies in the steady growth of the worlds population, improved
domestic standards of living coupled with a zero growth projection for the
countrys marine capture fishery, an improving marketing system and
network, and distribution infrastructure, advances in fish preservation and
processing technologies, including cold storage transportation, and the opening
of new international markets through membership in the World Trade Organization
(WTO).

With this potential, there is little doubt that the Chinese
aquaculture will continue playing a major role in contributing to future supply
of fish for both the domestic and global markets. As discussed in the previous
section, it is projected in Chinas 10th "Five Year Plan" that,
by 2005, about 65 percent of the countrys total fishery production will
come from aquaculture. This represents an increase of 5 percent from the
sectors contribution in 2000. Aquaculture is more highly developed along
the eastern coastline of China, and these areas are focused on producing
high-value, export-oriented species. In contrast, along the western coast of
China, aquaculture is mainly focused on producing affordable fish for local
consumption. Basic fish-farming activities, such as the culture Chinese carps,
will continue to increase, in order to meet the basic need for fish by the
increasing Chinese population.

Access to international markets that Chinas entry into
the WTO will provide, along with Chinas low production costs and tariffs,
are good market opportunities to its aquaculture products. However, the
challenge will be to positively respond to potential non-tariff trade barriers
which result from non-compliance with various international agreements, such as
agreements on quality and safety standards and quarantine procedures.

In the Year 2000, China exported 1.53 million tonnes of fish
and fishery products valued at US$ 3.83 billion. It is expected that by 2005,
the country will export 2 million tonnes of fish and fishery products
(10th Five Year Plan), valued at US$ 4.5 billion. This increase in
the volume of trade will come from aquaculture and the processed seafood
(capture fishery). It is also expected that the seafood processing industry,
which will also process imported fish and shellfish, will contribute
significantly to the projected increase in future exports.

Besides the species and products currently being exported,
such as shrimp, molluscs, eel, yellow croaker, pearls, seaweed, grouper,
seabass, yellowtail, tilapia, etc., other species that can be developed for
export markets include turbot, trout and sturgeon, which are all popular in
western countries.

However, there appear to be several constraints to realizing
the full potential of Chinese aquaculture in international markets. The main
ones include possible limitations to land use for aquaculture through the
national land use policy and system, possible water use control and resulting
inadequacy of water for aquaculture development as China is increasingly
becoming a water-deficit country, and government policy on aquaculture expansion
in several regions, mainly to maintain a minimum supply to meet the demand for
fish which results from population growth and changes in local eating habits
which are more and more biased towards fish consumption.

4.4. Future role of aquaculture in
Chinese society

As it continues to develop, aquaculture will continue to play
an important role in ensuring food supply and alleviating rural poverty,
especially through job creation and income generation for the rural poor.
Processing, value adding, marketing and the ornamental fish industry will also
be improved. Government special efforts are also planned to assist the seafood
processing industry to produce conveniently packaged and ready-to-eat products
at affordable prices. This will be necessary, as it is expected that the quality
and style of life of Chinas urban and suburban population will gradually
change as a result of the new economic policies of the country.

4.5 Main challenges
ahead

The increase in domestic and international demand for fish,
which results from economic growth and improved living standards, is likely to
be the main determinant of the future of aquaculture in China. The low prices
and quality of some fish products could inhibit the development of the sector.
Some of the preventive measures to these potential constraints could include
refining the quality standards and improving the inspection system for fish
products, strengthening the planning and management of water quality control,
regular monitoring and inspection of the water quality of aquaculture farming
systems, managing production, sales and use of drugs and feeds used in
aquaculture, establishing a system of land and water fallowing, and enforcing
the legislation on responsible aquaculture, including product handling and
processing.