Author
Topic: South Region Fan Poll (Read 219352 times)

DPU3619

I'm honestly a little surprised we're at as much of a consensus as we are. I think the Top 2 or 3 are certainly no-brainers, but I personally think the Top 3 in our poll are no-brainers (maybe Millsaps, need more time for me on that).... and then after that it gets pretty muddy pretty quick.

* With the exception of one voter, there seems to be some consensus that Muhlenberg is one of the top three teams in the South right now. Whether they end up there or not, remains to be seen.

* The one voter who has no love for Muhlenberg has much love for Millsaps. I must say, I was somewhat surprised by the lopsided-ness of the score this weekend--I figured MC would miss Jake Allen, but didn't realize they'd miss him that much. Just goes to show you how talented he really was.

* HSU's quality win over UW-LAX has earned them some love. As in the Olympics, throw out the high and low scores, and they're probably close to where the should be. A brief moment as a fan: I'm extremely encouraged by the way the defense played this weekend. And I have no idea what Major Rev is referring to RE: 2007 Backyard Brawl.

* With the exception of one voter, W&J seems to have shown themselves as to what they'll be this year: great offense, no defense. No offense to Oberlin, but it should never have been that close.

* Salisbury appears to have been extremely lucky to escape their game against Albright with a 'W'. Again, throw out the high and low and they're likely close to where they should be.

* One voter seems to have much love for Trinity. The other four seem to agree as to the Tiger's poll position.

There looks to be a fair amount of consensus amongst the pollsters on the rest of the teams. That's my commentary on this week's poll. Agree or disagree?

Muhlenberg--- They have 17 starters back, including Santagato (QB) and DeLuca (RB) are both players and the defense is always strong. I would think that they'll stay up toward the top of the poll most. It appeared from scoreboard watching that they controlled Wilkes for the most part and responded when they had too. From what I saw last year they deserve their ranking.

Millsaps--- Don't know much about them, but the scoreboard looked impressive.

HSU--- A great comeback win over a traditional power, tough having to take on Linfield but a win here could go along way towards a pool C bid even if they lose to the Crusaders.

W & J --- Haven't been impressed with their last couple outings.

Salisbury--- Not lucky, good. I listened to this whole game (the Albright feed), and I never got the sense that they weren't going to win. They dominated the first half. When Albright made some plays to get close, the Gulls broke off a big play immediately and got back on the board. They may still have some questions on defense, but an inexperienced backfield stepped up.

* With the exception of one voter, there seems to be some consensus that Muhlenberg is one of the top three teams in the South right now. Whether they end up there or not, remains to be seen.

* The one voter who has no love for Muhlenberg has much love for Millsaps. I must say, I was somewhat surprised by the lopsided-ness of the score this weekend--I figured MC would miss Jake Allen, but didn't realize they'd miss him that much. Just goes to show you how talented he really was.

* HSU's quality win over UW-LAX has earned them some love. As in the Olympics, throw out the high and low scores, and they're probably close to where the should be. A brief moment as a fan: I'm extremely encouraged by the way the defense played this weekend. And I have no idea what Major Rev is referring to RE: 2007 Backyard Brawl.

* One voter seems to have much love for Trinity. The other four seem to agree as to the Tiger's poll position.

There looks to be a fair amount of consensus amongst the pollsters on the rest of the teams. That's my commentary on this week's poll. Agree or disagree?

Millsaps--- Don't know much about them, but the scoreboard looked impressive.

HSU--- A great comeback win over a traditional power, tough having to take on Linfield but a win here could go along way towards a pool C bid even if they lose to the Crusaders.

(picking up from another area of the message board)

I truly think the Mississippi College Choctaw team that faced Millsaps on Saturday will get in the film room and will have the chance to straighten out some of their issues before they begin their march into Texas for ASC play. While they didn't look "green", the Choctaws passing D was definitely overmatched by the experience of the Millsaps offense.

Despite questions along the Millsaps O-line, one significant new feature was freshman 6-2, 315 lb. Oliver Galicki who moves well for his size and will mature quickly. I saw a couple of times when he was "taking instruction" from older linemen. If he can listen and learn, he should become a dominating force in a year or so. While QB Joseph was pressured a bit more than last year, he appeared more mobile than in previous years and also played with a calm head and super decision making. The experience of receivers McCarty, Savage, and Epps was ever-apparent in this first game against a good team. Add Menist, Milazzo, Perreira, Galatas, etc., and this offense looks simply FORMIDABLE again - possibly top 10 in production.And while Millsaps has been known as an offense that "uses the pass to set up the next pass", they seemed committed to trying to do more with the run, though their numbers were not high for the night.

There were a lot of changes on defense, but this defense looked not only ready, but hungry to prove themselves. Swapping from a 3-4 to a 4-3 through the night, a lot of players saw action along the line and just behind it all through the game, not just in the fourth quarter. D-linemen Anderson and Dale gave consistent pressure, along with new blood on the line, though the MC QB was well-protected. The Majors played it pretty conservatively I thought, not often commiting to the blitz. The loss of LB Gillenwater was well filled by returners Lee Klein, Colby Langston, Cap White, and by a mix of new faces including Will Hawkins and Nick Dubison. The conservative defensive play may have been because of confidence in what was in the defensive backfield. The Majors held a good quarterback (Schaffer) in check without apparently dropping any assignments as no receiver ever simply "got loose". Defensive backs showed good speed and were step-for-step with MC all night. This show of speed continued to be true deep into the roster. This defense may once again be high in the passing efficiency defense statistics. It will be interesting to see how this team fares against a more balanced attack like Trinity's (all miracles aside) as they're forced to cover more of the field.

Some questions about changes in the coaching staff were also answered, as Coach Dubose seems to have replaced OC Shannon Dawson very competently. The Majors were very effective in conversions all night.

Maybe this sheds a little light on a team working to establish a true tradition as a consistent force to be recksoned with ...

Agreed that the win over LaCrosse may indicate that HSU has "righted the ship." A win this week, and they jump some of these others ahead of them.

Also, who on the Trinity schedule will help them prove themselves? Is Millsaps "the strength" of their schedule? Should they pick up a stronger early game?

This weekend's game (assuming it is played) should give Trinity a much better picture of where they stack up this year (which I believe is their usual spot atop the SCAC standings) and to see how the new pieces fit together, then they have two long road trips to Colorado and Alabama which are always a good measuring stick for discipline, stamina, etc. They should have a very good idea of who they are by the time Depauw and Millsaps come calling.

DPU3619

Also, who on the Trinity schedule will help them prove themselves? Is Millsaps "the strength" of their schedule? Should they pick up a stronger early game?

I fail to see the benefit of playing a tougher non-conference game. Here's the current, best case, and worst case scenarios for Trinity:

Current scenario: Play a couple of cupcakes (relatively speaking), and probably make the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Millsaps game. Then, go to Belton in the first round of the playoffs. The SCAC hasn't ever gotten two teams in, but unless Trinity stumbles at Centre or something like that, it's pretty likely that Trinity is 9-1 if they lose at home against Millsaps. They probably get in regardless of the Millsaps outcome.

Best case: They beat that team, beat Millsaps, win the conference, go 10-0, and go to Belton in the first round of the playoffs.

Worst case: Play a tougher team, lose, lose to Millsaps, and miss the playoffs. (see 2006)

Watch list: DePauwTip of the hat to Bob Gregg for catching my error in the tabulations. I awarded too many 2nd place votes to Muhlenburg. There is no other change in rankings that I can see. Corrections are always appreciated!

Also, who on the Trinity schedule will help them prove themselves? Is Millsaps "the strength" of their schedule? Should they pick up a stronger early game?

I fail to see the benefit of playing a tougher non-conference game. Here's the current, best case, and worst case scenarios for Trinity:

Current scenario: Play a couple of cupcakes (relatively speaking), and probably make the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Millsaps game. Then, go to Belton in the first round of the playoffs. The SCAC hasn't ever gotten two teams in, but unless Trinity stumbles at Centre or something like that, it's pretty likely that Trinity is 9-1 if they lose at home against Millsaps. They probably get in regardless of the Millsaps outcome.

Best case: They beat that team, beat Millsaps, win the conference, go 10-0, and go to Belton in the first round of the playoffs.

Worst case: Play a tougher team, lose, lose to Millsaps, and miss the playoffs. (see 2006)

Honestly, what's the incentive?

Wes,

The only flaw I see in your argument is that a 9-1 Trinity in this scenario will have a pretty mediocre SOS and no quality wins against regionally ranked opponents, both things that factor into the Pool C decision making process.

And I just don't know if the NCAA will ever award the SCAC a pool C based on the fact it's been forever since the conference has won a playoff game. Yes, it doesn't help having to play UMHB in the first round every year. History isn't supposed to factor into the process but if it comes down to the last two teams and the other one is from a conference with some recent post-season success and Trinity, all other things being equal, I think the committee would take the team from the other conference.

That said, the rest of your statement is spot on. The apparent resurgence of Hardin-Simmons certainly throws an interesting monkey wrench into first-round pairings if Trinity gets into the postseason this year.

History isn't supposed to factor into the process but if it comes down to the last two teams and the other one is from a conference with some recent post-season success and Trinity, all other things being equal, I think the committee would take the team from the other conference.

Come on, Ron. You know darned well that history doesn't come in to play. If it comes down to the last two teams as you suggest, the AA is going to pick whichever matchup is cheapest for them to fund! 8)

I think this becomes an incentive for the SCAC over the long term. It seems that if both of the top two teams are playing significant non-conference games (does MC-Millsaps qualify for that - maybe in 2007, maybe not in 2008; would TU-HSU accomplish that - maybe not in 2007, maybe so in 2008), the conference has a better case for a Pool C bid.

In an era when Trinity cannot as easily lay claim to an assumed conference AQ, it seems a stronger non-conference game would be to their advantage and of benefit to the conference as a whole.

DPU3619

I think you're selling the 9-1 SCAC team just a bit short, Ron. This isn't like a 9-1 SLIAC team. I find it very hard to leave a 9-1 SCAC team out.

On top of that, the reason the SCAC has struggled so mightly in the playoffs is because the committee signs Trinity's death warrant by sending them to Belton or Abilene in the first round every single year.

We obviously have no way to know how the committee feels about a 9-1 Pool C team in the SCAC, because there's never been one.

It seems that if both of the top two teams are playing significant non-conference games (does MC-Millsaps qualify for that - maybe in 2007, maybe not in 2008... the conference has a better case for a Pool C bid.

I think it very clearly hurts more than it helps. If Millsaps plays LaGrange or somebody like that in the opener last year, they probably go to the playoffs at 9-1. Furthermore, they don't go to Trinity in the first round. They don't go UMHB and they probably don't go to Wesley, either. The match-up could have potentially set up very nicely.

I firmly believe that in the average year, a 9-1 team in the SCAC gets a Pool C. I'd love to find out, but we can't ever get one. Playing tougher non-conference games gets the top tier teams in the SCAC no closer to accomplishing that goal. In fact, it probably puts them farther away because it makes it increasingly more difficult to get to 9 wins. If somebody in the SCAC could actually GET to 9 wins, and then get left out, then maybe there's a case for that. They can't even get that far right now.

Do keep in mind that the QOWI the AA uses to help select playoff teams takes into consideration only DIII opponents.

Hypothetically, lets say Trinity wins out and Millsaps loses only to Trinity. HSU loses only to UMHB. You've got a 9-1 team for evaluation purposes being judged against an 8-1 team. Both have wins over a common opponent, but HSU has played more DIII competition (and has a win over at least one other potential playoff team in Linfield). That helps the Cowboys resume and hurts the Majors's.

You could say the same thing for UMHB if HSU manages to win that one this year. UMHB only has 8 DIII games, and 7-1 in those wouldn't be as appealing to the committee, I'd think, as an 8-1 Millsaps because the Crusaders would have zero out of conference, DIII wins to factor into their QOWI.

It's admittedly a double-edged sword, but my opinion is that it's always better to schedule the DIII competition than DII or NAIA teams.