Election Day GL's/MW Storm System

Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 03:15 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

After some mid range inconsistencies, the models are now beginning to target another favorable "cutter" storm track for our MW/GL's posters. The month of November is opening up tremendously busy, with systems each and every other day, but the 3rd, in a series of systems is likely to pack the biggest punch. Overnight 00z EPS actually shifted a tad SE with its ensemble members and takes the mean track right across IL/IN/MN. 00z GEFS take the mean across W IL/S WI. Are we going to see the November Gales prevail??? Could some members see their first snowfall??? Let's discuss....

I'm encouraged to see systems this season digging into the deep southern Plains and cutting up towards the GL's putting a lot of us near the active storm track which has been setting up this Autumn. Some of the 00z GEFS members are showing some backwash snow across the MW. If the trends continue to show a deepening storm, I wouldn't doubt seeing more wintry precip in future runs.

jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 08:55 AM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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5198 posts

LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@ GEFS loop

Certainly looks like it wants to go bigly on pressure falls & geography coverage when it arrives in the UP. Will be nice to get some wind headlines and a great sign for the Nov/Jan correlation I posted on earlier.

jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 01:11 PM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

Members

5198 posts

LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@ GEFS loop

Certainly looks like it wants to go bigly on pressure falls & geography coverage when it arrives in the UP. Will be nice to get some wind headlines and a great sign for the Nov/Jan correlation I posted on earlier.

I wish I could plan an intercept somewhere along the Superior shoreline or Huron Mtn's. Back in early Dec '07 I did such a chase and wasn't disappointed. It wasn't forecast to be a huge system but I did catch near blizzard conditions just across the Big Mack bridge. It's amazing how intense those winds were in the Straights area. These were actually SE winds as a WF plowed eastward into stubborn cold dome in Ontario. We got 7" in about 6 or 7 hrs iirc. Gaylord in the highlands had a solid 10" with about 14" OTG as I passed thru coming home that weekend.

That and my Nov '89 deer camp bliz bomb are my two early season rendezvous in NMI. That one chased me, lol, as I was in no way expecting a snowstorm, let alone a full-on blizzard. Back then, we hadn't a clue of the potential. It was 70F a couple days before across SMI. Little did I know that 0F air was lurking just north of Superior. Ma Nature decided to mix it up and the rest is legendary for those of us who experienced it firsthand.

Tom

Posted 03 November 2018 - 02:57 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

Even though this system doesn't look like it will produce much wintry precip, I'm still very interested where this storm tracks, intensifies, begins going neg tilt, how the models handle the blocking, etc as we continue to figure out this overwhelmingly exciting pattern. FWIW, the 00z EPS ticked SE and now the model is taking the mean SLP track thru S IL/C IN/S MI.

jaster220

Posted 03 November 2018 - 05:13 PM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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5198 posts

LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Quieter than a morgue in here. Have we been dealt our first model "now you see it, now you don't" tease, or did we just run afoul of the marginal cold season. Haha, maybe the models forgot to check which month it was, and then suddenly spread the word that it's only first week of November! Most have tampered every single potential they were flashing yesterday - sigh..

Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 03:37 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

This system has been quite a severe wx threat down near the Gulf states. Numerous storm reports and a few isolated tornadoes ripped through AL & MS. It's to bad this system couldn't phase early enough to produce a stronger storm around here, but nonetheless, its another large scale storm system impacting the MW/GL's region as the cyclical pattern continues to show promising signs going forward. On a side note, I like how this storm has slowed down and is pivoting across the GL's. Nice looking radar both yesterday and today.

jcwxguy

Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 06:50 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

Wrong map link

It’s the right one but I noticed when you copy and paste the graphic, it will automatically update itself when it updates on the website you took it from. I should have saved the image and then uploaded.

1115 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 /1015 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018/ ...Strong Winds Today... West winds will gust to around 35 to 40 mph through mid afternoon, with occasional gusts to 45 mph. Winds this strong may result in difficult travel for high profile vehicles, especially on north to south oriented roads. Lightweight objects may blow around if not secured. Use caution if traveling today and secure any outdoor objects. Winds will gradually subside after 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/. $$

jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 07:15 PM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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5198 posts

LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Wow, another LERn streamer along 94 corridor. The low baro combined with good winds and lots of RH. This would've been a dream scenario for W Michigan. I've zero doubt many counties would've scored bliz conditions and/or warnings in winter. They would be continuing into the night or at least Storm Warnings would be. can't wait to see this re-visit later on. This is not unlike the Feb '86 system that brought 24" to Battle Creek.