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People’s Bank of China publishes the detailed tables for monetary
statistics, which contain (as usual) the numbers for working out
a rough estimate for capital flow.

To our surprise, the latest numbers suggest that by such measure,
money outflow continues in October, and it is almost back to the
rate we saw in summer despite improvement in September. In other
words, the reduction of outflow for September turns out to be a
blip.

Position in forex purchases increases by RMB22 billion in
October. Trade surplus for October was about US$32 billion, which
translates into about RMB200 billion. As a result, the money
outflow is estimated to be at RMB178.86 billion. Since October
last year, money outflow is recorded by this measure for 11 out
of 13 months.