how confident were you about your future at 17? I'm sure he thinks he's going to UCLA, will dominate then go number 1 over all in two years

And if he has an agent, I'm sure that agent is telling him the same thing. On the other hand, his agent is probably showing him Matt Purke scouting reports ...

If this guy is as talented as some are saying, he will be the kind of pitcher coming out of college that you'd draft number 1 and be willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign.

But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

And if he has an agent, I'm sure that agent is telling him the same thing. On the other hand, his agent is probably showing him Matt Purke scouting reports ...

If this guy is as talented as some are saying, he will be the kind of pitcher coming out of college that you'd draft number 1 and be willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign.

But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

Just look at the highschool pitchers taken first in every draft- the overwhelming majority are busts- since 2000, 2006 is the only big success

Karsten Whitson and Dylan Covery didn't sign in 2010 and the next highest drafted HS arm (Mike Foltynewicz) is 10-2 with a 2.59 ERA this year.

Hobgood has been ruined by injuries but Zack Wheeler (taken one pick after him in '09) looks promising.

Ethan Martin is still a good prospect and Gerrite Cole was the 2nd HS arm taken in '08.

Jarrod Parker & Bumgarner were the first two HS arms in '07.

And like you mentioned, Kershaw was in '06.

How is that an overwhelming majority of busts?

Regardless, none of those prospects were considered as good as Giolito (pre-arm injury) coming out of HS.

I missed Parker going through the list- that changes it to a little under 1/2 success rate (Parker Kershaw Floyd)- I think you have to cut it off at 08/09- some guys (Bundy) look good, but until they play in the majors I don't think you can call them successes

Which I really dont think you can dispute. 6'6, consistently mid to high 90's, reaching 100, with a knockout curveball?

There is definite risk with pitchers, not just HSers. But in terms of pure talent, Giolito is a cut above. Even Kershaw. Doesn't mean he'll have the big league success of Kershaw, just means he's got more talent. I dont think anyone would say Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the league.

I missed Parker going through the list- that changes it to a little under 1/2 success rate (Parker Kershaw Floyd)- I think you have to cut it off at 08/09- some guys (Bundy) look good, but until they play in the majors I don't think you can call them successes

Which I really dont think you can dispute. 6'6, consistently mid to high 90's, reaching 100, with a knockout curveball?

There is definite risk with pitchers, not just HSers. But in terms of pure talent, Giolito is a cut above. Even Kershaw. Doesn't mean he'll have the big league success of Kershaw, just means he's got more talent. I dont think anyone would say Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the league.

Exactly.

No sane human being would claim Lucas Giolito is better than Clayton Kershaw on July 12th, 2012.

Just look at the highschool pitchers taken first in every draft- the overwhelming majority are busts- since 2000, 2006 is the only big success

2002 was a very big success for HS pitchers. Cain, Greinke, Hamels, Saunders, Kazmir. Of course in that draft of talented HS arms, it was the O's and Nats/Expos who failed to pick up a stud HS arm. Typical.

I think its ridiculous to look down on HS pitchers or write them off because of a high bust rate.

EVERY position, from every level has a long list of busts.

College pitchers are just as risky as HS arms. Look at the list of college arms that have been complete busts ...2001 - Dewon Brazelton, Josh Karp, Chris Smith2002 - Bryan Bullington btw, Zach Greinke was a top ten pick this year.2003 - Kyle Sleeth2004 - Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers, Wade Townsend, Thomas Diamond2005 - Wade Townsend2006 - Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller. This was Kershaw's year.2007 - Daniel Moskos, Casey Weathers. This year also had Bumgarner and Jarrod Parker taken in the top 10.

I stopped there, because some guys still could develop. That list of names doenst include names like Detwiler, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Prior, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm, or Jeff Francis who have all made the bigs at least, and had some level of success. Although none of them have lived up to their billing to date.

Certainly there are the David Prices, Verlanders, even Ricky Romero's in there. But there are FAR more busts among the college arm than their are successes.

Should we eliminate college arms from consideration as well? Should we write off their potential?

All that matters is who you think has the most talent and the ability to make the biggest impact at the big league level. There is risk involved with every single kid you select. College kids have injury risks as well. This list is just the top ten, because stretching it further would take forever. This list shows just how high bust rates are among arms, period. Its not exclusive to HSers. Discrediting Giolito's talent or potential because he's a high schooler is ridiculous.

I think its ridiculous to look down on HS pitchers or write them off because of a high bust rate.

EVERY position, from every level has a long list of busts.

College pitchers are just as risky as HS arms. Look at the list of college arms that have been complete busts ...2001 - Dewon Brazelton, Josh Karp, Chris Smith2002 - Bryan Bullington btw, Zach Greinke was a top ten pick this year.2003 - Kyle Sleeth2004 - Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers, Wade Townsend, Thomas Diamond2005 - Wade Townsend2006 - Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller. This was Kershaw's year.2007 - Daniel Moskos, Casey Weathers. This year also had Bumgarner and Jarrod Parker taken in the top 10.

I stopped there, because some guys still could develop. That list of names doenst include names like Detwiler, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Prior, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm, or Jeff Francis who have all made the bigs at least, and had some level of success. Although none of them have lived up to their billing to date.

Certainly there are the David Prices, Verlanders, even Ricky Romero's in there. But there are FAR more busts among the college arm than their are successes.

Should we eliminate college arms from consideration as well? Should we write off their potential?

All that matters is who you think has the most talent and the ability to make the biggest impact at the big league level. There is risk involved with every single kid you select. College kids have injury risks as well. This list is just the top ten, because stretching it further would take forever. This list shows just how high bust rates are among arms, period. Its not exclusive to HSers. Discrediting Giolito's talent or potential because he's a high schooler is ridiculous.

Obviously, none of them had Giolito's talent though. You have to sign him and hope that the Nats can finally cash in on a HS pitcher. I didn't count Peacock because he was a draft and follow and attended JUCO.