With most of Wall Street on vacation, those few traders manning their desks are taking advantage of the low volume to push the market sharply higher. This, combined with a large move up by the Euro has pulled the entire risk trade up forcing the US Dollar lower.

This move was to be expected on some levels. Since 2002, there has been a rally from just before Thanksgiving until the second week of December. This year is shaping up to replay this move. Stocks and other risk assets were certainly oversold from the preceding week and needed a breather.

However, from a larger perspective there is no shortage of truly horrible developments in the world. EU budget talks failed to accomplish anything. This comes on the heels of failed Greece debt talks from last week (there is another meeting next week on this).

Meanwhile, France has lost its AAA credit rating, Spain’s bad bank plan has been dropped due to lack of interest. And then there is Cyprus Portugal and soon to be Italy’s issues to deal with.

At the end of the day, the whole issue in the EU boils down to whether or not Germany will foot the bill for everything. The fact of the matter is that it won’t. If Germany were to agree to fund things as they are (assuming nothing worsens in the EU), it would amount of over 30% of its GDP.

Never in history has one country issued a transfer of that amount to another. The single largest transfer in history (on a GDP basis) was the German Marshall Plan, which represented only slightly over 6% of US GDP.

So forget about Germany writing the check. There will be political machinations and games played to maintain the house of cards that is the EU… but when push comes to shove, Germany will leave before it foots the bill for everything.

And then of course there is the fiscal cliff in the US: the single largest tax hike increase in US history (on a % of GDP basis). Ignore the media’s spin on this, no one has a clue how to fix the problem, largely because math is not partisan and we’ve been living beyond our means for far too long to fix this with one deal.

The reality is that what we are witness today is the collapse of the welfare states of the developed world. The real solutions (defaults both sovereign and on social spending plans) are completely unsavory from a political perspective, so politicians will do all they can to avoid what actually needs to happen.

In simple terms, the great debt implosion has begun. It will likely take several years to complete, but what’s coming will make the 2008 debacle will seem like a picnic.

This is why I’ve been warning that 2008 was just the warm-up. What is coming will be far far worse.

Propark America to lay off 186 employees in New Haven The New Haven Register ^ | November 26, 2012 | Luther Turmelle

Posted on Monday, November 26, 2012 3:11:22 PM by 2ndDivisionVet

Propark America, which operates 31 parking garages and lots around New Haven, is laying off 186 employees in January.

The Hartford-based company filed a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) notice Nov. 20 with the Connecticut Department of Labor. The notice indicates that the layoffs are scheduled to begin on Jan. 20 and does not indicate whether all of the employees are being laid off at once.

The WARN Act is a federal law requiring employers of 100 or more full-time workers to give 60 days advance notice of a plant closing or mass layoff...

Stunning new research from a New York University economics professor reveals just how wide the chasm between the rich and everyone else has grown over the past few decades.

In 2010 median net worth in the U.S. hit its lowest point since 1969 at $57,000, according to a recent study by NYU Professor Edward Wolff, who studied Americans' net worth from 1983 - 2010.

During the same period, income inequality skyrocketed in the U.S., Wolff found, largely thanks to the housing bust, which took a significant bite out of middle-class Americans' assets. Wolff found that while middle income earners lost 18 percent of their net worth, those in the top 1 percent increased their wealth by 71 percent over the same time period, according to Wolff's report.

The findings bring into sharper relief existing evidence that average Americans are getting squeezed ever tighter, while the country's wealthiest watch their fortunes explode. In 2010, the annual median wage fell to $26,364, its lowest level since 1999, according to a separate study. The decline in wages may have, in part, contributed to growing wealth inequality, resulting in a member of the 1 percent's worth equaling 288 times that of the median U.S. household, the Economic Policy Institute found in a report released in September.

The Great Recession is responsible for much of that disparity with the wealth of the median family declining a record 38.8 percent between 2007 and 2010. Those between the ages of 35 and 44 were hit particularly hard. Partly as a result, half of American households now possess just 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Big money managers are warning investors. They’re now citing the Bible: “Seven lean years.” No recovery till 2016. That was Jeremy Grantham back a few years ago. His GMO firm manages $104 billion.

Now Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, the co-CEOs at the $2 trillion Pimco money managers, are citing the same biblical warning to jar investors awake and prepare for the coming lean years of slow, low growth and austerity. Except in Pimco’s new warning, the future just got much, much darker for investors — no recovery until 2022.

Earlier in the summer — back when most investors were totally distracted by campaign drama and betting heavily on a new president, anticipating a post-election bull market — many were expecting Corporate America would unleash trillions in hoarded reserves, stimulate a recovery and new bull. Back then, Reuters, Forbes, CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and rest of the obsessed media simply yawned at Gross and El-Erian’s warning that equities hit a “dead end in terms of significant appreciation.”

“Dead end?” No recovery till after the 2020 elections? Yes, one angry headline even said Gross was “faithless” with stocks. Why? Conventional wisdom tells us markets run in cycles. So investors believe it’s now time for a new bull. Gross and El-Erian disagree.

Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle first mentioned a “new normal” with slow, low growth back in 2002. It fell on deaf ears. Since the 2008 meltdown the same warnings are coming from gurus like Grantham, Gross, El-Erian and others. Ignore their warnings at your peril.

California´s largest for-profit health insurer, Anthem Blue Cross, is seeking to raise rates an average of 18% for more than 630,000 individual policyholders, drawing scrutiny from regulators and the ire of consumers already struggling with soaring premiums. Some Anthem customers may see rates rise as much as 25% in February under the company´s proposal at a time when medical inflation is running at historic lows nationwide. The increases are among several others proposed by California insurers, including Aetna Inc. and Health Net Inc. California insurance regulators will take the next month to review whether these rate increases are warranted,

While any and every bad data point recently has been summarily dismissed by the 'transitory' effects of Hurricane Sandy, it appears in the deepest darkest reality that there is more of a structural trend to this shift than simply a 'blip'. Claims missed expectations and prior data was revised higher leaving the four-week-average at its highest since October 2011 jumping back over 400k.

The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing activity index is out, and it's a big miss.

The headline number unexpectedly fell to -6 from -4 in October. Economists were expecting an improvement to -1.

From the Kansas City Fed's report:

Tenth District manufacturing activity eased further in November, while producers' expectations were unchanged from last month at modestly positive levels. Several contacts noted uncertainties about the upcoming fiscal cliff, and a few producers cited delayed deliveries and reduced orders from the East Coast as a result of the Hurricane Sandy. Price indexes moderated slightly.

The month-over-month composite index was -6 in November, down from -4 in October and 2 in September (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. This marked the first time the composite index has been negative for two straight months since mid-2009. Manufacturing slowed at durable goods- producing plants, while nondurable factories reported a slight uptick in activity, particularly for food and plastics products. Other month-over- month indexes were mixed in November. The production index was unchanged at -6, while the new orders and order backlog indexes declined for the third straight month to their lowest levels in three years. In contrast, the employment index increased from -6 to 0, and the shipments and new orders for exports indexes were less negative. The raw materials inventory index decreased further from 2 to -7, while the finished goods inventory index rose from 3 to 9.

Most year-over-year factory indexes decreased slightly from last month but remained positive. The composite year-over-year index eased from 11 to 9, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also fell. On the other hand, the employment index rose from 12 to 22, and the capital expenditures index edged slightly higher. Both inventory indexes increased somewhat.

Most future factory indexes were unchanged in November, and remained modestly positive. The future composite index was stable at 3, and the future production, shipments, and new orders indexes also recorded little or no change. On the other hand, the employment index dropped somewhat, the future capital expenditures index fell after increasing last month, and the future new orders for exports index eased slightly. The future raw materials inventory index rose from -5 to 2, and the future finished goods inventory index also increased.

The U.S. birth rate plummeted in 2011 to the lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression, led by a drop among immigrants.

The U.S. birth rate dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression, led by a drop among immigrants, according to a report data released Thursday by the Pew Research Center.

In 2011, the overall birth rate was 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age, the lowest since at least 1920, Pew reported, citing numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics. The birth rate reached 122.7 in 1957, the peak of the Baby Boom. After the mid-1970s, the birth rate stabilized at about 65 to 70 births per 1,000 women annually, until the beginning of the Great Recession.

Since 2007, both the U.S. birth rate (the number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15-44) and the number of births have dropped significantly, according to the report.

Overall, the birth rate declined 8 percent from 2007 to 2010. Among U.S.-born women, the birth rate dropped 6 percent. The decline among foreign-born women was 14 percent. Among Mexican women, the birth rate fell even more, to 23 percent.

(RELATED: State Education Data Reveal Large Racial Achievement Gaps)

Despite the recent decline, foreign-born moms continue to give birth to a disproportionate share of the country’s babies, the report said. In 2010, immigrants represented about 13 percent of the U.S. population while foreign-born mothers accounted for 23 percent of all births.

After 2007, the number of U.S. births, which had been rising since 2002, fell abruptly, according to the report. This decrease was also led by immigrant women. Overall the number of births between 2007 and 2010 dropped 7 percent, pulled down by a 13-percent drop in births to immigrants. By comparison, births to U.S.-born women dropped only 5 percent.

The Pew researchers attributed that drop to a change in behavior (the falling birth rates) rather than a change in the number of women (those born in the U.S. or immigrants) of childbearing age.

An earlier Pew report attributed the recent fertility decline to “economic distress.” The study showed that states with the largest economic declines between 2007 and 2008 were most likely to experience relatively large fertility declines the following year.

Hispanic women - both those born in and those born outside the U.S. - experienced larger birth-rate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups. They also experienced greater percentage declines in household wealth than white, black, or Asian households between 2005 and 2009, according to the report. Latinos also experienced a greater rise in poverty and unemployment than non-Latinos after the Great Recession began.

The recent decline in births to foreign-born moms reversed a trend in which immigrant women accounted for a rising share of the country’s births, according to the report. In 2007, immigrant mothers accounted for a quarter of all U.S. births, compared to 16 percent in 1990. By 2010, foreign-born moms accounted for 23 percent of all births.

Despite the drop-off among the foreign-born, Pew population projections indicate that immigrants who arrived since 2005 and their descendants will account for 82 percent of U.S. population growth by 2050. Even taking the recent decline in immigration into account, new immigrants and their descendants are still expected to lead most of the nation’s population increase by mid-century, according to the report.

Other findings:

The majority of births (66 percent) to U.S.-born women were to white mothers. That share has dropped since 1990 when it was 72 percent. The majority of births to foreign-born mothers were to Hispanic moms.

Teen mothers make up a greater share of births among U.S.-born women (11 percent in 2010) than foreign-born mothers (5 percent). Mothers ages 35 and older make up a higher share of births to immigrants (21 percent in 2010) than to moms born in the U.S. (13 percent). Mothers born outside the country accounted for more than a third of births to women ages 35 and older that year.

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The index reading came in at 49.5, well below estimates of 51.4 and last month's reading of 51.7.

Click here for updates >

The number indicates that American manufacturing has passed from expansion mode into a contraction phase, which seems to conflict with an earlier report from Markit that indicated a pickup in manufacturing activity.

The Production sub-component was perhaps the lone bright spot, rising 1.3 percent to a reading of 53.7 from 52.4 last month.

The Prices Paid index also fell below expectation of 53.3 to 52.5, from 55.0 last month.

Below is a complete breakdown of the sub-components of the index:

ISM

Below are quotations from respondents to the ISM survey on business conditions: "Conditions still appear to be positive for continued growth in sales." (Machinery) "Business is steady, but not much more than that. We are in a lull." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) "The principle business conditions that will affect the company over the next three or four quarters will be the U.S. federal government tax and budgetary policies; the impact of those policies is not yet clear." (Petroleum & Coal Products) "Differences between first half of year and remaining half are very dramatic, growing to a peak in the middle of the year with a gradual decline since." (Plastics & Rubber Products) "Seeing a slowdown in request for quote activity." (Computer & Electronic Products) "The fiscal cliff is the big worry right now. We will not look toward any type of expansion until this is addressed; if the program that is put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts — which will push us toward recession — forget it." (Fabricated Metal Products) "Seeing a slowdown in demand across markets." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components) "Economy is very sluggish. Production is down and orders have slowed considerably from Q1." (Transportation Equipment) "East Coast storms delayed some shipments." (Primary Metals) "Global economic uncertainty still seems to be sticking around which is not necessarily making things worse, but it is also not making things better from a demand standpoint." (Chemical Products)

Collecting Disability Becomes A Career Choice For Men (welcome to the Obama economy!) Investors Business Daily ^ | December 3 2012 | By Michael Barone

Posted on Monday, December 03, 2012 5:54:35 PM

"It is exceptionally difficult — for all practical purposes, impossible," writes Eberstadt, "for a medical professional to disprove a patient's claim that he or she is suffering from sad feelings or back pain."

In other words, many people are gaming or defrauding the system. This includes not only disability recipients but health care professionals, lawyers and others who run ads promising to get you disability benefits.

Between 1996 and 2011, the private sector generated 8.8 million new jobs, and 4.1 million people entered the disability rolls.

In 1960, some 455,000 workers were receiving disability payments. In 2011, the number was 8,600,000. In 1960, the percentage of the economically active 18-to-64 population receiving disability benefits was 0.65%. In 2010, it was 5.6%.

Some four decades ago, when I was a law clerk to a federal judge, I had occasion to read briefs in cases appealing denial of disability benefits. The Social Security Administration then seemed pretty strict in denying benefits in dubious cases. The courts were not much more openhanded.

Things have changed. Americans have grown healthier, and significantly lower numbers die before 65 than was the case a half-century ago. Nevertheless, the disability rolls have ballooned.

One reason is that the government seems to have gotten more openhanded with those claiming vague ailments. Eberstadt points out that in 1960, only one-fifth of disability benefits went to those with "mood disorders" and "musculoskeletal" problems. In 2011, nearly half of those on disability voiced such complaints.

Nearly 6.5 million U.S. teens and young adults are neither in school nor working, according to a new report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation. The report warns of a future of chronic unemployment due to a continuing failure to educate and train America's youth in needed skills.

The most recent "Kids Count" report, one of the most widely cited surveys of how youth fare in the United States, found that young people aged 16 to 24 are facing serious barriers to successful careers as youth unemployment has reached its highest level since World War II. Only about half of young people in that age group held jobs in 2011, according to the report, titled "Youth and Work: Restoring Teen and Young Adult Connections to Opportunity."

The employment rate for teens between the ages of 16 and 19 has fallen 42 percent over the last decade: 2.2 million teens and 4.3 million young adults aged 20 to 24 are neither working nor in school. Of those without school or work, 21 percent -- or 1.4 million -- are young parents.

North Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota had the highest rates of employment among 20- to 24-year-olds. Laura Speer, one report's authors, told Minnesota Public Radio that early employment is key to future success.

"The thing that you got and I got from our very first job is mostly about how to work," Speer said. "How to be on a team, how to have a boss, how to show up on time. And those -- what are termed as 'soft skills' -- are things that are really critically important going forward."

Young adults are facing more competition from older workers for increasingly scarce entry-level jobs. Many lack the skill set required for available jobs. Still others face obstacles beyond their control, such as low-performing schools, a lack of working-adult role models and impoverished upbringings.

The report shows that lack of education, opportunity and connection to school or work has long-term implications for both the affected youth and society as a whole.The 1.4 million young adults who are not in school, are unemployed and have children can "perpetuate an intergenerational cycle of poverty" as they continue to fail to find work, the report states. (An earlier "Kids Count" report, released this summer and based on U.S. Census data, already showed that the portion of children living in poverty increased by nearly a third between 2000 and 2010.)

Described as disconnected youth, those who lack both jobs and a high school education are less likely to achieve financial independence and stability, and they can become a cost to taxpayers.

Of the 3.8 million students that start high school this year, a quarter won't receive a diploma, according to NPR. Those who don't finish school will earn $200,000 less than those who do over their lifetime, and $1 million less than a college graduate.

High school dropouts are not eligible for 90 percent of the jobs in the U.S. economy, according to Education Database, and a student drops out of high school every 26 seconds in the U.S., contributing to a rising unemployment rate. Dropouts cost taxpayers between $320 billion and $350 billion a year in lost wages, taxable income, health, welfare and incarceration costs, among others.

The "Kids Count" report stresses a need to offer multiple, flexible pathways to success for disconnected youth, and to find ways to reengage high school dropouts. Among the report's recommendations:

•National policymakers developing a youth employment strategy "that mobilizes public and private institutions together to tackle this issue." •Greater coordination among financial supporters for youth assistance programs. •Replication of successful efforts such as the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe in Battle Creek. •Employers stepping up to offer "career pathways and jobs for young people."

The report is published by the Annie E. Casey Foundation, one of the largest private charitable organizations in the U.S. devoted to improving the lives of children.

“All young people need opportunities to gain work experience and build the skills that are essential to being successful as an adult,” Patrick McCarthy, president and CEO of the foundation, said in a statement Monday. “Ensuring youth are prepared for the high-skilled jobs available in today’s economy must be a national priority, for the sake of their future roles as citizens and parents, the future of our workforce and the strength of our nation as a whole.”

•CITI TO CUT OVER 11,000 JOBS, TAKE PRETAX CHARGE $1B IN 4Q "Sandy's fault?" or better yet, "Vikram's fault." Or maybe the economy is collapsing despite all the propaganda one is spoonfed. Considering the recent termination of over 50,000 by UBS we think we know the answer. And while C stock may jump on the news, the end result is that New York and the US have both just lost 11,000 less key taxpayers most of whom are almost certainly in the $250,000+ bucket. That said we can't wait for the BLS to take this data as somehow beneficial for the unemployment rate.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October's rate.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.

It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.

Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October. The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work. Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.

Unemployment Lowest for College Grads, Whites, Men, and Older Workers

Unemployment rates continue to be lowest for college grads (4.0%), Americans aged 50 to 65 (5.5%), whites (6.5%), and men (6.6%). At the other end of the spectrum, unemployment remains higher than 10% for blacks (12.4%), 18- to 29-year-olds (12.0%), people with a high school education or less (11.4%), and Hispanics (10.6%).

Regionally, Americans living in the South face the highest unemployment rates, while Midwesterners have the lowest levels of unemployment. The Labor Department recently reported that superstorm Sandy produced a large uptick in the number of underemployment claims being filed in the East, especially from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Gallup's data found that unemployment rose 1.2 points in the East between October and November. However, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate rose by the same amount in the Midwest and went up a similar 0.8 points in the South -- indicating that Sandy isn't entirely to blame. Unemployment declined 0.2 points in the West.

Implications

Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate -- the closest comparison it has to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -- increased in November, suggesting that the BLS will report another increase when it releases its numbers Friday. It is possible that some of the November increase in unemployment is the result of scaled-back holiday hiring, in which case the BLS may apply a smaller adjustment factor than it has in the past.

Although the employment situation has improved over the past year for Americans as a whole, it is apparent that more must be done to improve job opportunities for many specific groups, especially young Americans and blacks, who continue to experience the highest unemployment levels.

The increase in unemployment in November is a change from the positive momentum seen in recent months. However, it is also possible that October's dramatic improvement was temporary, and November's reading is a continuation of the earlier trend. The trend in future months will be an important indicator of the true momentum of the job climate.

Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out) TBI ^ | 12-5-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on Wednesday, December 05, 2012 12:48:16 PM by blam

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July

Sam RoDecember 5, 2012

When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:

EATING OUT IS OUT

Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.

I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%). As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.