jmundie wrote:If you think all the models are missing a giant area of -20 C 850s, then by all means, think that.

I didnt say that...Ive told you several times that I dont think it will be as cold as 85 but yet you keep suggesting that I am saying it will. My thoughts are clearly stated and they were clearly stated with the last system and we all know how that turned out. If you want to take the models verbatim on temps at a week out be my guest...but they will more than likely be too warm if the setup that most models are showing verifies. Also let me say that I am also in the camp of even a more severe blast of colder air towards the end of January.

snowdog wrote:Whatever happened to a good ol fashioned clipper? When is the last time we saw a good clipper in this area?

I think clippers are pretty much non existant with a raging positive NAO. They seem to me to be a fixture of blocking. But I could be wrong about that.

Used to it seemed any time we would get a good arctic outbreak a piece of energy would slide down from the northwest and spark a good 1-2" quick hit clipper type system. Maybe it is more of a feature in Nino's.

I still like the apps runner transitioning into a great lakes fetched North to NW flow event....The models have definately waffled on this but its what makes sense. I also think the ULL will need to be watched for the cold core also.

hey toot, or anyone out there, whats yalls thoughts on todays euro showing a clipper on steroids effecting much of the state late this week? it looks pretty interesting. depending pn ratios, could see some nice accumulations.

tennessee storm09 wrote:hey toot, or anyone out there, whats yalls thoughts on todays euro showing a clipper on steroids effecting much of the state late this week? it looks pretty interesting. depending pn ratios, could see some nice accumulations.

Hey Bruce...im not really seeing a clipper... it looks like a north to northwest flow event with help from the polar vortex spinning spokes of energy through the area.

tennessee storm09 wrote:hey toot, or anyone out there, whats yalls thoughts on todays euro showing a clipper on steroids effecting much of the state late this week? it looks pretty interesting. depending pn ratios, could see some nice accumulations.

Hey Bruce...im not really seeing a clipper... it looks like a north to northwest flow event with help from the polar vortex spinning spokes of energy through the area.

At least thats what im seeing on the 12z euro

so actually this could produce more than a clipper type system, it looks very interesting to say the least toot... looks pretty wide spread also... effecting parts of arkansas all way to the carolinas...

tennessee storm09 wrote:so actually this could produce more than a clipper type system, it looks very interesting to say the least toot... looks pretty wide spread also... effecting parts of arkansas all way to the carolinas...

Models just seem to be trending back to what they showed a few days ago which is arctic air ushered in by the PV and the Apps running storm which combine to produce a nice fetch of moisture from the great lakes down into the TN valley which could totally equal sexy snowsqualls

The PV feature looks to become a very important precip making machine the next couple of weeks and im starting to think places in Tennessee will get as low as the single digits to below zero in the mountains during this shot of Arctic air.

I just hope that is as cold as it gets this month.

Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2012-01-08, 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

I'm not so certain we're looking at the right solution with the cold air phasing with the ULL

Looking at the ensembles, you can see there is pretty good support for a gulf low forming along the front. Most of the members have the trough digging further west, likely because they don't have much interaction between the ull and the trough. This leads to a moist wave coming out of the gulf. and likely synoptic snow for most of tennessee.

I don't think we'll truthfully know what will happen until almost now casting time or even now casting time itself. Just seems like there is so many potential options for this thing that it won't be easy to discern what will happen until much closer. I mean, we're talking possible NW flow snow showers, gulf low phasing with cold air, and even just last night/yesterday a clipper.

jmundie wrote:I'm not so certain we're looking at the right solution with the cold air phasing with the ULL

Looking at the ensembles, you can see there is pretty good support for a gulf low forming along the front. Most of the members have the trough digging further west, likely because they don't have much interaction between the ull and the trough. This leads to a moist wave coming out of the gulf. and likely synoptic snow for most of tennessee.

It ain't over til its over, apparently.

Your totally right, I mean the models have been all over the place with this.

Well, I now know why nobody has any snow. Cordova, Alaska has been hogging it up. Good morning America just showed pictures of the 175 inches (14 1/2 feet) of snow they have gotten between Dec 17-Jan 6.

We're getting into the nam's range now and it is completely different from the rest of the models...its holding back the ULL in TX. The Nogaps continues to be consitent with a nice NW flow event with extreme fetch...if anybody has been watching the nogaps you would know that it has showed this solution for several days now and has only waffled slightly.

I personally think it has the best hold on things. The Navy upgraded the nogaps a few months back and it has definately been one of the better models so far this winter.

jmundie wrote:I'm not so certain we're looking at the right solution with the cold air phasing with the ULL

Looking at the ensembles, you can see there is pretty good support for a gulf low forming along the front. Most of the members have the trough digging further west, likely because they don't have much interaction between the ull and the trough. This leads to a moist wave coming out of the gulf. and likely synoptic snow for most of tennessee.

It ain't over til its over, apparently.

I noticed just that this morning when looking over last nights model runs. Honestly is all depends on when and where the ULL goes preceding this possible event. Ensembles show about a 50% chance of there being a Miller A type scenario. I would say that is probably about right. We probably won't know much more than that until the models come to a consensus on the ULL track/strength.