2013-12-18 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day (!)2013-12-18 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2013-12-18 16:00:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great thx. Nice call on the merchandising 2013-12-18 16:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it was there for the taking 2013-12-18 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always the little nuances that stand you apart from the crowd2013-12-18 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be fair2013-12-18 16:02:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: SO true2013-12-18 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kinda underestimated the short covering2013-12-18 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls did control 2013-12-18 16:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: me too!2013-12-18 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we'll see if this is a classic "B" wave or not2013-12-18 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without looking...it probably is2013-12-18 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2013-12-18 16:05:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth was strong2013-12-18 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check2013-12-18 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2460/684 for the NYSE2013-12-18 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1841/747 for the NASDAQ2013-12-18 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much within the framework of a short covering rally2013-12-18 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key now is if there's going to be any near term follow through2013-12-18 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what today did with an exclamation point2013-12-18 16:07:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: any follow through will put a new high on SPX2013-12-18 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it took all of the spec puts to worthless2013-12-18 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we closed at all time highs today on both the SPX and Dow?2013-12-18 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look2013-12-18 16:08:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep2013-12-18 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after providing a small point change on Tuesday2013-12-18 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today2013-12-18 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both above the zero line2013-12-18 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above the late November double top highs2013-12-18 16:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now secures a price floor below us in the NYA especially if the Composite was able to do the same2013-12-18 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO components2013-12-18 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both are now back above their zero lines2013-12-18 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND2013-12-18 16:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generated a cross over buy signal today2013-12-18 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in both cases2013-12-18 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke above the declining tops lines of both the MCO and the components today2013-12-18 16:11:06 [Message] orange -> Chat: would it make sense to get a snapback to the zero line here?2013-12-18 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for the common stocks to be strong enough to where the NYA index will be able to move to higher highs2013-12-18 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see this MCO move above the early November highs2013-12-18 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could Matt2013-12-18 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a reasonable expectation2013-12-18 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the velocity of the move today2013-12-18 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with those who did not climb on board prior2013-12-18 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see some follow through at the open on Thursday2013-12-18 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then stall out2013-12-18 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is to be a snapback2013-12-18 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might not happen now until Monday of next week because of Friday being OPEX2013-12-18 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the other MCO's did today...that should help us answer that question2013-12-18 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved sharply higher today 2013-12-18 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving above the zero line with relative ease2013-12-18 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stalling just perceptively above the last reaction high point in the MCO2013-12-18 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need a clean break above these levels2013-12-18 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally above the +25 level2013-12-18 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to secure the recent price lows at the 9950 level as being important support2013-12-18 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here too2013-12-18 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both the 10% and 5% Trends moved above their zero lines today2013-12-18 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have a crossover buy in place2013-12-18 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that our original expectation of seeing our first chance of a tradable low was within this time frame2013-12-18 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do get further strength here2013-12-18 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have to look back as last week as one of those rogue wave events 2013-12-18 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that just so happened to coincide with WWW2013-12-18 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was good enough to move both the willing and unwilling sellers out of the market2013-12-18 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again2013-12-18 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a bit early to take this leap2013-12-18 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the lesser issues did today2013-12-18 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today2013-12-18 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a crossover buy with the components2013-12-18 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we mentioned yesterday2013-12-18 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be finding pattern support right at the downward slanted series of bottoms that we see on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM2013-12-18 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good strength as well in the NDX breadth MCO2013-12-18 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we barely finished the day above the zero line with a +7 reading2013-12-18 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but taking ruler to monitor2013-12-18 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did close above the short term declining tops line seen on the NDX MCO2013-12-18 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then2013-12-18 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's intraday lows have now set a price floor for the market2013-12-18 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we don't get the desired follow through to break free of the bear market default2013-12-18 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the keystone has now been placed2013-12-18 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a large upside move in the SPX breadth MCO2013-12-18 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't enough to take out the reaction highs seen at the end of November2013-12-18 16:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our going too far and too fast price wise today2013-12-18 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the divergence we're seeing between the NYA and the SPX MCO's2013-12-18 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a characteristic of a classic Elliott Wave "B" wave2013-12-18 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one in which meets this far and fast description without money flow leading the way2013-12-18 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words2013-12-18 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rally today smelled bad2013-12-18 16:24:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if the SPX makes new highs, though, won't it have to be an irregular?2013-12-18 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is one of those easy ways to tell that days like today were short covering affairs with little, if any, fresh money moving in2013-12-18 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can still be a flat2013-12-18 16:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the irregular Fib retracments are...2013-12-18 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wave "B" is 1.382 times the length of wave "A"2013-12-18 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Wave "C" is 1.618 times the length of wave "A" from the "B" wave top2013-12-18 16:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple flat would stall in and around this area2013-12-18 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is a simple flat2013-12-18 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would further fit our trading range expectation2013-12-18 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what we already knew going into today2013-12-18 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market was compressed2013-12-18 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were seeing underlying strength coming into the up volume area2013-12-18 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested stronger hands were supporting the market2013-12-18 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger frame work of the correctional process is2013-12-18 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were likely to see a consolidation that would take the look of either a trading range or triangle2013-12-18 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it would be choppy and volatile2013-12-18 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now2013-12-18 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything has been met about as precisely as you're going to see2013-12-18 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now...the next couple of days will finalize what the finished product will look like2013-12-18 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: examples2013-12-18 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's an irregular flat, then we will see the breadth MCO's take out their needed high points to provide the momentum thrust to reach these 1.382 targets2013-12-18 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if prices move a bit more higher without the benefit of underlying strength2013-12-18 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're either have a classic flat2013-12-18 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (in that case a close in the SPX 1812 should not be expected)2013-12-18 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could be a "B" wave in a triangle2013-12-18 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can move to around 18162013-12-18 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let me do a little math for the fun of it...one moment2013-12-18 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm....2013-12-18 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's something of interest2013-12-18 16:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the daily volume today on this outside range day2013-12-18 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 billion shares on the SPX2013-12-18 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's well above average2013-12-18 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and could be classified as a hard reversal initiation day2013-12-18 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, we would still need both volume and breadth to support this2013-12-18 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the math2013-12-18 16:33:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1830.95 is irregular B2013-12-18 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have 1829.31 intraday2013-12-18 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close enough to 1825, huh?2013-12-18 16:33:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool2013-12-18 16:34:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I thought that before, too funny2013-12-18 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we may have run out of steam at the end of November2013-12-18 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might still reach the overall target given a couple months ago anyway2013-12-18 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again2013-12-18 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another great example of the dynamics that the MCSUM provides us2013-12-18 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as when we see the MCSUM top out and start to move lower2013-12-18 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that prices are finished with the momentum of the move2013-12-18 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what fools those who are still learning how to work with these tools2013-12-18 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they see the MCSUM turn higher or lower and then assume that prices will have no more opportunity to move beyond the point of this same MCSUM turning point2013-12-18 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's anything that anyone takes away from these chats that will always make you a better trader, this is it2013-12-18 16:36:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: boy, an irregular here would give the boys some great play...2013-12-18 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who play the game otherwise are green to say the least2013-12-18 16:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would Lew2013-12-18 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...2013-12-18 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the math one step further2013-12-18 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets say it's 18292013-12-18 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "C" wave decline would take you back to 17612013-12-18 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be 11 points above our downside price targets given a week or two ago2013-12-18 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember2013-12-18 16:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of all of the corrective Elliott patterns out there2013-12-18 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the irregular flat only takes place within trends of exceptional strength2013-12-18 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once it concludes2013-12-18 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be early January2013-12-18 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch out2013-12-18 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this is just fun stuff for now2013-12-18 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how things are going with the rest of the indices2013-12-18 16:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the OEX breadth MCO with a +1 reading2013-12-18 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that we're attempting to gain support at the +250 level on the OEX breadth MCSUM2013-12-18 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the Dow breadth MCO2013-12-18 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Dow breadth MCSUM plays tag of its own at around the +500 level2013-12-18 16:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what do we have here with the OEX and Dow?2013-12-18 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have new price pattern highs with little in the way of control by the bulls2013-12-18 16:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're at the zero line where there is now trading balance between both sides 2013-12-18 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can now take control once the momentum of today's move wanes2013-12-18 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smells like a "B" to me2013-12-18 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would help in confirming this as a counter corrective move today2013-12-18 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to see those who were shouting that the top was in over the last 3 weeks now suddenly taking a bullish stance2013-12-18 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens...2013-12-18 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a cinch that today's rally will fail2013-12-18 16:44:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: an irregular would probably leave a fishhook there-and we already had a ledge-just for fun2013-12-18 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be2013-12-18 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we don't have too much to work with as far as the large caps are concerned2013-12-18 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might form ledges there2013-12-18 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then fall off2013-12-18 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far2013-12-18 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not so much in favor of the irregular for the simple reason that we're not likely to do so without the large caps showing better strength in this reflex2013-12-18 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what I'm saying?2013-12-18 16:45:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely2013-12-18 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were in better sync here across the board2013-12-18 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then maybe2013-12-18 16:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing though that's probably a pretty good bet here is that2013-12-18 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see a continuation to the upside before we have another pause to refresh2013-12-18 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...2013-12-18 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected on Tuesday2013-12-18 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did have a good technical day today2013-12-18 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still needs to move above both the +25 level and the reaction highs of mid November before we can call it "in the clear"2013-12-18 16:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our closing at the all time highs at the top of the range today2013-12-18 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the buyers pick up the pace2013-12-18 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have momentum divergence in place2013-12-18 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's probably good for another week or two of back and fill2013-12-18 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again2013-12-18 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far2013-12-18 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still look like we're not going to do much more than churn here until after the first of the year2013-12-18 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it is nice to see that the today's rally timed itself nicely to what was our original time framework was before of what we were likely to get a tradable bottom2013-12-18 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this increases the likelihood then that our current blue print is the right one2013-12-18 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO2013-12-18 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that were also successful here in being able to move back above the zero line and above the reaction highs of early December2013-12-18 16:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is still not quite enough for us to take more of an offensive position 2013-12-18 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, it does lessen our being that much more defensive2013-12-18 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure sounds like a trading range, doesn't it?2013-12-18 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a nice day as well for the TM breadth MCO2013-12-18 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we see here2013-12-18 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a lot of work to do here before we can say that a successful trading low is behind us2013-12-18 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 21 day close up chart of the TM breadth MCSUM2013-12-18 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that we do have some gap resistance above current levels that will need to be taken out before today's turn in the MCSUM is one that can be traded2013-12-18 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....2013-12-18 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we found technical support where we should had2013-12-18 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and short covering did the rest2013-12-18 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market MCO's are showing a bit more strength than the derivatives2013-12-18 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the large caps that seem to be the problem right now for any chance of seeing today's big day to be the start of something more longer lasting2013-12-18 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would change our minds?2013-12-18 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the volume McClellan's did...2013-12-18 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a look at that2013-12-18 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's had a nice day 2013-12-18 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both were able to move above last weeks high point2013-12-18 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can see that there still more hurdles to overcome before we can feel comfortable 2013-12-18 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now2013-12-18 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price lows of last week will likely provide strong support for the next couple of weeks2013-12-18 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO showed much better strength today than the NYSE2013-12-18 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so did the NDX volume MCO2013-12-18 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls go about in trying to hold their horizontal support levels of the last year in their respective MCSUM's2013-12-18 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback also complete on the SPX volume MCO 2013-12-18 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX volume MCO is lagging here2013-12-18 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO has completed a simple zero line snapback2013-12-18 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while both the MID and SML breadth MCO's have traveled back above their zero lines2013-12-18 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both have no texture to their advance from their "oversold" levels of last week2013-12-18 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's not likely to hold without some back and fill first2013-12-18 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw good overall strength in the TM breadth MCO2013-12-18 17:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too2013-12-18 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see how this support has come rushing in a timely matter as the pattern attempts to hold its 1 year horizontal support level on the TM breadth MCSUM2013-12-18 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-12-18 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between breadth and volume here2013-12-18 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a classic short covering rally2013-12-18 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have now shook the tree of both the willing and unwilling in both directions2013-12-18 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the expectation from here is for another trip to challenge the price floor of this same range2013-12-18 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the McClellan breadth sector charts2013-12-18 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our expected pop to what looks like new price highs in the XLY2013-12-18 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLY breadth MCO still needs to overcome the highs of late November2013-12-18 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a relatively poor performance by the XLP breadth MCO2013-12-18 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on our experience here of the last couple of years2013-12-18 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market hasn't provided us with an advancing trend until we saw money move into this defensive sector first2013-12-18 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wouldn't reasonable to believe that this will change because of how we, as humans, tend to slowly embrace our being long than we are being short2013-12-18 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...the lack of money moving into Consumer Staples here today is suspect to an upcoming rally failure2013-12-18 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE did indeed find price pattern support at the 85 level2013-12-18 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the XLE breadth MCO is supporting a textural advance to the upside2013-12-18 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could get a test of the upper range of this high level consolidation now2013-12-18 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good character day for the XLF2013-12-18 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw new recovery high close today2013-12-18 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF breadth MCO moving above both its zero line and the recent reaction highs today2013-12-18 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO was pulled up by its bootstraps today2013-12-18 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains negative at this time2013-12-18 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLI2013-12-18 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we only got a zero line snapback in the XLI breadth MCO2013-12-18 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only perceptively broke above the declining tops line in the pattern2013-12-18 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a so so day2013-12-18 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but having new highs is a good thing nonetheless2013-12-18 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is probably has the best construction going for it right now2013-12-18 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a higher low2013-12-18 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a thrust2013-12-18 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break above pattern resistance2013-12-18 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not supporting the new all time price highs made today in the index2013-12-18 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for a rally failure there 2013-12-18 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good momentum move to the upside today in the XLK breadth MCO2013-12-18 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give us another week or two of this kind of action2013-12-18 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're likely to see good things happen to this basket of stocks in January2013-12-18 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now have bull divergence in place with the XLU breadth MCO2013-12-18 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this will now put any chance of a SOB trigger on the back burner for now2013-12-18 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we hold here2013-12-18 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then have a third point of a bottom above a bottom2013-12-18 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where the pattern can then be referenced as a right angle triangle2013-12-18 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a rising trend of bottoms2013-12-18 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a flat top2013-12-18 17:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall though2013-12-18 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable that we're still stuck in a larger consolidation pattern going back to the May top 2013-12-18 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soo...2013-12-18 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a real mixed bag with the sectors helps us in acknowledging that it's not likely that we're going to see much more upside here2013-12-18 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our expectation of playing hit and run with both the long and short side from last week is still the preferred method of trading right now until we get more to work with2013-12-18 17:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators2013-12-18 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic2013-12-18 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for a price top in the next two trading sessions2013-12-18 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected from Tuesday2013-12-18 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now neutral across the board2013-12-18 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see the VTO's make their trek toward their zero lines over the next couple of days2013-12-18 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (except the NDX which will bounce off this same zero line)2013-12-18 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit surprising2013-12-18 17:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE TRIN was only .722013-12-18 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would had thought it would had been below .502013-12-18 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .962013-12-18 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprising again2013-12-18 17:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ TRIN is at .802013-12-18 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92 - neutral2013-12-18 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .822013-12-18 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .932013-12-18 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no help there from yesterday2013-12-18 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooooo...2013-12-18 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had one of those classic news related short covering rallies today2013-12-18 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have gone too far and too fast for it to hold all of today's gains2013-12-18 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less2013-12-18 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the opportunity to see higher price targets that might be generated by Fibonacci targets2013-12-18 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how the BETS came out today...one sec2013-12-18 17:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the NAUD line2013-12-18 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +252013-12-18 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of note2013-12-18 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NAAD and the NYAD moved back to bullish configurations today2013-12-18 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you remember that inverted symmetrical triangle that I drew on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM chart a couple of weeks ago2013-12-18 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we precisely bounced off the lower line today 2013-12-18 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line for tonight for the buyers: show me2013-12-18 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get good follow through on Thursday2013-12-18 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be in good enough shape then to maybe have a tradable low before the end of the year2013-12-18 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point2013-12-18 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with OPEX beginning tomorrow2013-12-18 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and holiday's coming up2013-12-18 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem doubtful2013-12-18 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again2013-12-18 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have learned ohhh so many times over the last 4 years2013-12-18 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should NEVER underestimate the potential power of this market base2013-12-18 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should have enough information after tomorrow to make a solid plan for the rest of the year2013-12-18 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2013-12-18 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to find a way to keep Lew from being booted from the room 2013-12-18 17:32:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx2013-12-18 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I have the time over the next couple of weeks, I'l look around to see what other chat software is available2013-12-18 17:33:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll try and work on my end too..2013-12-18 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything was fine with this one until Sun started messing around with their Java program2013-12-18 17:33:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I hate sun2013-12-18 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was version 6, build 232013-12-18 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..2013-12-18 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their heart is in the right place2013-12-18 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a shame that every browser finds it difficult to work with them2013-12-18 17:34:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, but everyone tries to fix unbroken things2013-12-18 17:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amen to that2013-12-18 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again2013-12-18 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how else are they to make money for your shareholders?2013-12-18 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at MSFT2013-12-18 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they finally got it right with XP2013-12-18 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then they looked at the future and said...if we don't change it, we'll drown2013-12-18 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a heads up2013-12-18 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be out of town the week of January 13th2013-12-18 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there won't be any chats that week2013-12-18 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will make up the two sessions the week before and the week after2013-12-18 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll put up the January schedule sometime next week2013-12-18 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2013-12-18 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off2013-12-18 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening2013-12-18 17:37:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, good chat2013-12-18 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again in less than 22 hours2013-12-18 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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