The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The King Rail is the freshwater cousin of the saltwater-loving Clapper Rail. King Rails are at home anywhere there is a large cattail marsh. The biggest existing threat to King Rails is probably the draining of marshes across its breeding range, which extends across much of the eastern U.S. and barely into Ontario. Adding to this threat, Audubon's climate model projects an 87 percent loss of current winter range by 2080, dispersing suitable wintering climate space across the interior of the eastern US. While birds in the U.S. may be forced northward, it remains to be seen how birds currently wintering throughout coastal Mexico and Cuba, outside of the model's analysis, may respond.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.