world trade report 2006

Transcription

1 D Some stated objectives of governments for using subsidies This Section discusses the main objectives governments claim to pursue with subsidies including industrial development, innovation and support for national champions, environment related objectives and redistribution. Under the broad category redistribution, three more specific objectives are examined: the use of subsidies for regional policy purposes, adjustment support for declining industries and universal service obligations. This selection does not pretend to be exhaustive but it covers some of the most important objectives pursued by governments in developing and developed countries. For each objective, the economic rationale for government intervention is discussed. The focus is on efficiency arguments, that is on whether an intervention may increase the size of the pie, which does not mean that efficiency is the only criterion. Even if there is no efficiency argument, interventions might be justified for other reasons, such as to transfer income to certain disadvantaged groups within society or to augment national prestige. Economists have little to say about the weighting of other objectives relative to that of increasing efficiency. In each subsection, the effectiveness of subsidies with respect to the claimed objective is examined. Each subsection discusses the appropriateness of using accompanying and/or alternative measures. Reference is also made to the sectors in which subsidies are used to pursue particular objectives and some specific examples, e.g. of successful projects or failures are presented. The first subsection discusses the use of subsidies for industrial development purposes from a developing country perspective. It considers how ideas and experiences have shaped approaches towards the role of government interventions and subsidies in particular in industrial development policies. The main efficiencybased arguments in favour of industry promotion, which are essentially variants of the infant industry promotion argument, are then analysed in some detail together with the role of subsidies in such policies. Given their importance in the debate on industrial promotion, implementation issues are addressed separately. A brief summary of the literature on the lessons from the Asian experience closes the discussion. The second subsection examines the use of subsidies to support innovation and for strategic purposes. Innovations are an important driver of economic growth and support to innovation is a core component of industrial policies in emerging and developed countries. The discussion focuses on innovations at the global knowledge frontier, and not on the absorption of innovations that has to some extent been dealt with in the previous subsection. High R&D intensity is frequently associated with imperfect competition in the sectors concerned which might induce governments to use subsidies to shift rents or pursue other strategic policies. Subsidization of national champions is therefore also examined in this subsection. The third subsection discusses the use of subsidies for redistribution purposes. A summary of the reasons why societies redistribute income is followed by an examination of the costs involved in transferring income from the rich to the poor. The effectiveness of different forms of subsidies is compared. The subsection then goes on to consider some specific examples of how governments use subsidies to achieve equity goals. While it is typically low-income groups who are the targets of redistribution programmes, subsidies to achieve more balance in regional development will also be discussed. Finally, the use of subsidies to assist declining industries to adjust to economic difficulties will also be considered in this subsection. The fourth subsection compares instruments that can be used to support environmental conservation. The discussion focuses on the economic justification for the use of subsidies to conserve the environment, distinguishing between various causes of environmental degradation. A selective overview of the types of environmental subsidies that have been implemented by different countries is provided. Environmentally harmful subsidies that is, subsidies that support activities that damage the environment fall outside of the scope of this subsection, which addresses environmentally motivated subsidies. The fifth and last subsection covers cases where subsidies to a certain sector are deemed justified on the basis of some specific characteristic of the sector, inherent to its very nature. Examples of this type of subsidies include subsidies to the energy or food sector justified by the specific role of these sectors in relation with national security, subsidies to agriculture justified on the basis of the so-called multifunctional character 65

2 of agriculture or of non-trade concerns, and subsidies to the audiovisual sector motivated by the perceived cultural value of the sector. As in previous subsections, the economic justification for the use of subsidies in these cases and the existence of possible policy alternatives are analysed. 1. Industrial development Policy-makers in developing countries often consider subsidies a useful tool to develop certain industries, with industries in this context referring to activities in the agriculture, manufacturing or services sectors. This objective has often been linked to the infant industry argument, i.e. the view that in the presence of more developed countries, less developed countries cannot develop new industries without state intervention. It has been argued that many of today s industrialized countries successfully applied infant industry promotion policies in early stages of their development. The role of government intervention in East Asia s industrial success has also received a lot of attention in the literature. Critics argue that the most impressive development records are related to a laissez-faire approach, keeping government intervention to the minimum. This subsection will survey the relevant literature and present examples illustrating both sides of the argument. (a) Development strategies, industrial policy and subsidies The approach to government-assisted industrial development and preferences for specific policy instruments have evolved over time as a result of changes in development thinking and the external environment. Ideas regarding the linkages between trade, development and the role of government have changed a good deal in the post-war period, influenced in part by country experiences. 42 In the 1950s and early 1960s, development was equated with industrialization and import substitution was seen as the route to industrialization. The view that a more or less free market would not solve the development problem was widely accepted. Large-scale comprehensive planning was considered to be the appropriate policy instrument despite the fact that necessary data were largely missing and that neither planning nor growth were very well understood. The role of capital formation as the main source of growth was emphasized. As most capital goods had to be imported, overvalued exchange rates were seen as a means to encourage investment. But exchange rate overvaluation induced balance of payments pressures which were countered through a variety of trade restrictions. While protection was typically afforded mainly to consumer goods, in some large countries, domestic production of capital goods was encouraged by keeping out imports and by direct subsidies. 43 The experience of the 1950s and early 1960s, sometimes referred to as the easy stage of import substitution, created considerable hope among economists and country leaders. Compared with the pre-war period, investment and growth rates increased as did the share of manufacturing in GDP. Life expectancy at birth and literacy rates rose and infrastructure developed. During the 1960s however, distortions became increasingly evident. Agriculture was penalized. Exports were penalized. Unemployment prevailed and, surprisingly, capital was underutilized. Two large collections of case studies published around 1970 carefully documented these distortions. 44 At the same time, estimates of total factor productivity growth became available showing very limited improvements, if any, in developing countries. It also became apparent that poverty was not declining at a significant pace. By 1970, economists had started having doubts regarding import substitution as a development strategy. Doubts were not only fed by the facts. Developments of economic theory also contributed. While second-best theory had provided intellectual support to import substitution, the general theory of distortions, which refined it, reinforced the case for trade liberalization. Second-best theory suggested that trade liberalization could not be guaranteed to be advantageous in an otherwise distorted world. The general theory of distortions further developed the argument and showed that trade policy is usually neither first nor second best but rather n-th best. Another attack on the import substitution strategy came from Robert Baldwin s influential paper entitled 42 See Winters (2000), Bruton (1998). 43 See Bruton (1998). 44 See Balassa and associates (1971) and Little et al. (1970). 66

3 The case against infant industry protection published in In his paper, Baldwin showed convincingly that infant-industry duties do not only distort consumption, they may fail to correct the market failures they are intended to address and may even result in a decrease in social welfare. If, for instance, the acquisition of the socially optimal level of knowledge requires some direct outlays, imposing tariffs is no guarantee that these socially optimal outlays will be made. He also explained that what is required to handle the special problems of infant industries is a much more direct and selective policy measure than general import duties. Doubts regarding the import substitution strategy were further fed by the exceptional export and growth performances of the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei in the 1960s. Chinese Taipei and the Republic of Korea had made substantial policy changes in the late 1950s and early 1960s that encouraged firms to export. In both cases, exchange rates were unified, currencies devalued and export incentives put in place. These policies were designed to ensure that producers were no longer rewarded primarily for selling in the domestic market returns to exporting were made at least as attractive through the removal of the anti-export bias inherent in import substitution policies. Initially, these strategies were seen as export promotion with limited government intervention. However, this view was soon disputed. It is now largely acknowledged that governments intensively promoted specific sectors in the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei, as well as in Japan. Whether export promotion and trade policy interventions played a crucial role in the East Asian Miracle is an open question. 45 What is fairly clear, however, is that the circumstances leading to success in the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei were not typical. The policy instruments used were typically the same as those used elsewhere, including import quotas and licenses, export subsidies, public ownership and tax holidays. But the manner of implementing and monitoring trade policies were different. A political leadership fully committed to strong economic performance was firmly in place and government-business relationships were highly unusual. The extent to which government priorities and resources were organized around export performance in the Republic of Korea was striking. 46 The lessons learned from the import substitution experience, and some learned from the export promotion experiences in the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei, contributed to the emergence in the 1980s of a new strategy relying on outward orientation with minimal government involvement. 47 The emphasis on exports as an engine of growth was drawn from the Asian experiences, while the strong scepticism vis-à-vis government interventions was largely inspired by the import substitution experiences. Anne Krueger s work on rent seeking and difficulties associated with the implementation of sophisticated policies supported the view that government failures were more likely than market failures and that an effective market mechanism would naturally emerge if policy-induced distortions were eliminated. Over the 1980s, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund became strong advocates of an outward orientation strategy. In the outward orientation strategy, the suspicion of targeted trade policy interventions was rooted in a general scepticism regarding the capability of governments to deliver appropriate policies. While most supporters of outward orientation would agree that some market failures provide a case for temporary intervention, they would stress difficulties with detecting and quantifying the externality, identifying the appropriate intervention and preventing the capture of policies, as reasons not to intervene. This scepticism was itself largely based on anecdotal evidence and stylized facts. During the 1990s, the outward orientation strategy came increasingly under fire. Disappointing results in Latin America and Africa, unsatisfactory performance in the transitional economies and the financial crisis in Asia raised doubts regarding the capacity of outward orientation to promote development. Empirical work regarding the growth benefits of openness looked more promising initially, but this work has been challenged more recently on methodological grounds. 48 Interest in the linkages between trade reforms, inequality and poverty has also revived, and results have confirmed there can be no simple general conclusion about the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty. 49 The debate on the interpretation and the lessons to 45 See the detailed discussion in Noland and Pack (2003). 46 See Noland and Pack (2003), Bruton (1998) and Rodrik (1993). 47 The outward orientation development strategy is sometimes referred to as the New Orthodoxy or the Washington Consensus. 48 See Hallak and Levinsohn (2004). 49 See Winters et al. (2004). 67

4 be drawn from the East Asian experience has intensified. 50 The presumption that governments typically lack the capacity to implement trade policies has also been questioned. 51 With this background of growing doubts, new strategies have been slow to emerge. A number of trends however can be identified. First, multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements are imposing increasing disciplines on traditional trade-policy instruments. Tariffs are progressively being reduced, quotas are largely prohibited and subsidies are disciplined. Governments make an increasing use of new trade policy tools, in particular export promotion and FDI attraction. 52 Second, attention has progressively shifted from import policies to export policies. The World Bank s focus, for instance, has moved from the incentive framework associated with the tariff regime to removing policy and other obstacles that prevent producers from taking advantage of new market opportunities. This has been reflected in the Integrated Framework Diagnostic Trade Integration Studies. Third, the crucial importance of institutions and learning have been recognized. This has repercussions for the design of industrial development policies. Finally, economists are more nuanced and cautious with policy advice than they were before. Most importantly, the one-size-fits-all approach has been abandoned. A better understanding of the growth and poverty effects of specific trade and industrial policy interventions is warranted. 53 Considerable divergence remains in views on the role of governments in industrial development strategies. Although the need in some instances for pro-active government interventions and industrial policies has been recognized, the World Bank continues to mistrust direct government selection of promising sectors and to favour the use of indirect mechanisms to promote technological upgrading, by means of attracting FDI and developing local technological capabilities. 54 At the same time, a new strand of literature is exploring novel approaches to industrial policy that take into account the traditional arguments against interventions. One approach emphasizes information externalities entailed in discovering the cost structure of an economy, and coordination externalities in the presence of scale economies, and sees industrial policy as a discovery process where firms and the government learn about underlying costs and opportunities and engage in strategic coordination. 55 Another approach emphasizes the role of recent shifts in the institutional mechanism of international trade such as the emergence of production and buyer-led networks and sees negotiations with multinational corporations as the main focus of industrial policy. 56 (b) Arguments for industrial promotion As explained in Section C above, for economists the case for government interventions rests on the existence of market failures. With perfect competition, small firms and well-functioning markets, prices give producers the appropriate signals for efficient resource allocation. Government support causes resources to be used in an industry beyond what is optimal. This is all the more so if part of the subsidized output is exported and contributes to a deterioration of the terms of trade. In the presence of market failures, the general theory of the second best applies. This theory argues that for every market distortion, there is an optimal policy intervention that addresses the distortion most directly and does not create additional distortions. If the optimal remedy is not available to the government for some reason, other measures can be taken which indirectly address the distortion. In general, industry-wide subsidies do not address distortions in a targeted way and would not be optimal. Thus, for each market imperfection, it is necessary to consider whether output or export subsidies would improve efficiency but also whether and which other measures might be available for achieving even greater efficiency See Noland and Pack (2003). 51 See Rodrik (1995). 52 See Melo (2001). 53 See Hallak and Levinsohn (2004). Moreover, given the complex and ambiguous nature of the effects of certain interventions, careful impact assessments are recommended prior to the introduction of trade reforms. Such assessments may help design complementary and compensatory measures. 54 See de Ferranti et al. (2002). 55 See Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) and Rodrik (2004). 56 See Pack and Saggi (2006) 57 See Grossman (1990). 68

5 The main arguments that have been put forward to justify selective government interventions in developing countries involve information and coordination problems. Informational barriers to entry and learning spillovers among producers lie behind the most familiar variant of the classic infant industry argument. This is the case where productivity gains resulting from learning-by-doing accrue partly to firms other than the one that actually undertakes the manufacturing. More recently, spillovers associated with learning about the suitability of local conditions for production have drawn considerable attention in relation to diversification. Information problems faced by consumers have also provided arguments for interventions in support of infant industries. When consumers have imperfect information on foreign products, a firm s investment aimed at building reputation will benefit others. 58 Finally, information problems faced by lenders on capital markets have played a prominent role in the infant industry debate. Because of information asymmetries, equities markets do not finance much new investment. Credit mechanisms then become the primary vehicle for raising capital. But credit markets are often characterized by credit rationing. 59 Coordination problems, which may justify an intervention, could arise in the presence of interdependent investments related to vertical linkages, large-scale economies and restrictions to trade. Entry by a new producer may be inhibited by the lack of a purchaser or of a low-cost producer for an important input. 60 More generally, markets play a central role in coordinating economic activities through the price system. But information is also conveyed to economic agents by various other institutions that are relatively well developed in the rich countries. Institutional arrangements for cooperation and information exchange are typically weaker in developing than in developed countries. Hence there may be a greater role for governments to create institutions and facilitate coordination. 61 Other arguments for selective industrial policy interventions that have been considered but could be seen as less specific to development, relate to situations where research and development generate knowledge spillovers or where imperfect competition allows governments to pursue strategic trade policies. These cases are examined in subsection 2 below. The first infant industry proponents at the end of the eighteenth century stressed that production costs for newly established industries within a country are likely to be initially higher than for well-established foreign producers of the same product, who have greater experience and higher skill levels. That alone, however, would not justify a government intervention for efficiency purposes. If costs are expected to fall sufficiently during the learning period to generate a discounted surplus of revenue over costs after a reasonable period of time, firms should be able to raise the funds they need to cover the losses incurred during the learning period in the capital market. If this is impossible, it is likely to be because of some failure of the capital market, a case that is considered below. The infant industry argument must rest on the existence of knowledge spillovers or externalities associated with the learning process. 62 The theoretical case for government intervention in the presence of knowledge spillovers that arise from learning-by-doing is fairly straightforward. Such spillovers arise when the new producer who incurs costs in order to discover the best way to produce a particular product, cannot appropriate all the productivity gains that are generated. If information becomes freely available to potential competitors, competition will raise factor prices or compress the product s price to a point where the initial firm cannot recover its total costs. Without government intervention, individual entrepreneurs will not have adequate incentive to invest in knowledge acquisition. When private marginal costs of production exceed social marginal costs, because other firms benefit from a given firm s output, then an output subsidy is the policy instrument of choice. Trade policies are next best, as they promote learning but also introduce a negative volume of trade effect See Grossman and Horn (1988) for instance. 59 See World Bank (1993). 60 Lall (2002). 61 See World Bank (1993). 62 See Noland and Pack (2003) for a list of externalities related to the learning process. 63 See Grossman (1990). 69

6 A variant of this argument applies specifically to exports. 64 In the presence of spillovers from learning-byexporting, producers will be reluctant to start exporting in the absence of government interventions. An export subsidy granted to pioneer exporters may improve upon the market outcome. Other than direct export subsidies, this argument has been used to justify programs to subsidize and coordinate the exploration of foreign markets. 65 Some examples of such policies are presented in Box 6. The controversy over this variant of the infant industry argument does not centre on analytical issues but rather on empirical and practical matters. One question relates to the pervasiveness of such situations. While learningby-doing spillovers are often assumed to be pervasive, available evidence is relatively scarce and does not provide a very clear picture. The small existing body of work on the estimation of learning effects suggests that the importance of such spillovers might differ among industries. There is evidence that learning spillovers are present in nuclear power plant construction, wind-turbine production, the production of various memory chips and the chemical processing industry. 66 On the other hand, evidence suggests that there were little or no spillovers in Japanese steel in the 1950s and 1960s and across American shipbuilding yards. 67 Another empirical study, which examined learning-by-doing in the early American rayon industry shows that there can be considerable differences across firms in their ability to benefit from other firms learning-by-doing. 68 Evidence regarding less developed countries is even more difficult to interpret. Based on their review of research in less developed countries, Bell et al. (1984) found little support for the claim that firms entering a new activity can learn costlessly from the experience of others, while Tybout (2000) in a similar but more recent review, notes that the best documented case of spillovers in less-developed countries is the Green Revolution in Indian agriculture. There is some econometric evidence regarding information spillovers from exporting. Aitken et al. (1997) examine whether locating near other exporters increases the probability of exporting, using data on 2,104 Mexican plants over the period between 1986 and They find that the probability that a domestic plant exports is positively correlated with the proximity of other exporters, but only if the latter are multinationals. As a consequence, the authors highlight the importance of the presence of multinational enterprises in export processing zones. Clerides et al. (1998) find that the costs of breaking into foreign markets are negatively related to the number of firms that have already done so. However, Bernard and Jensen (2004) do not find any evidence of spillovers from exporting. They also do not find any effect of state export promotion on exporting. The second matter of controversy relates to the administrative and fiscal feasibility of the policy interventions, their informational requirements, and their political economy consequences. Recent theoretical and empirical research on industrial development policy has focused on a slightly different market failure. It is related to informational externalities in the entrepreneurial process of discovering new profitable investment opportunities. 69 In open economies, new profitable investment opportunities would almost naturally involve export products. Diversification and the discovery of new opportunities for profitable production or export are closely linked to development. Empirical work by Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) shows that the relation between diversification and development has the shape of an inverted U. Diversification first increases with development but there exists a point, relatively late in the development process, where countries start specializing again. It is not clear whether the discovery activity simply occurs with economic growth or if it is a driver of subsequent growth. 70 There is also a considerable body of policy literature that emphasizes the benefits of export diversification See Panagariya (2000). 65 See Rodriguez-Clare (2004). 66 See Zimmerman (1982), Hansen et al. (2003), Neij et al. (2003), Irwin and Klenow (1994), Gruber (1998) and Lieberman (1984). 67 Ohashi (2004) finds little intra-industry knowledge spillovers in Japanese steel in the 1950s and 1960s while Thornton and Thompson (2001) find strong learning effects but small spillovers across shipbuilding yards in the US. 68 See Jarmin (1994). 69 See Hausmann and Rodrik (2003). 70 On this last point, see Klinger and Lederman (2004). 71 See the introduction by G.K Helleiner in Helleiner (2002). 70

7 Box 6: Export assistance in WTO Members Governments provide assistance to exporters by supporting activities dealing with export facilitation, information, image-building and participation in fairs. Export assistance to the business community has been available in industrialized countries for a long time, but availability of support services markedly increased since the 1970s. 1 Institutions responsible for the development and management of export promotion system vary across countries and involve the government, private sector organizations or a mixture of both. Export assistance activities can be divided into two groups: activities providing information on export opportunities to potential domestic exporters and activities providing information on domestic products and producers to potential foreign importers. The need for governments to intervene in export assistance has been justified on the ground of information spillovers from pioneer exporters on other potential exporters. 2 The Table below gives an overview of export promotion activities offered by WTO Member governments according to the information provided in the Trade Policy Review reports from January 2004 to October In the table commercial offices are only those that are explicitly mentioned as being branches of an export promotion agency. Embassies and consulates that fulfil the services of commercial offices abroad are not taken into account. 4 Export promotion policies in WTO Members Information for and assistance to potential exporters on-shore activities: information information centres provision and management of trade data (bank) on-shore activities: assistance quality control, certification etc. on-line business portal training assistance in administrative matters assistance in product design and other advisory services off-shore activities market surveys/ identification of market opportunities commercial offices Information for potential importers abroad on-shore activities organize domestic fairs and exhibitions WTO Members Ecuador, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Switzerland Nigeria, Philippines, Suriname, Tunisia Brazil, Republic of Guinea, Trinidad and Tobago Burkina Faso, Jamaica, Paraguay Brazil, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Jamaica, Nigeria, Tunisia Egypt Japan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Switzerland Belize, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Jamaica, Japan, Mongolia, Nigeria, Paraguay, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia Ecuador, Jamaica, Singapore Belize, Republic of Guinea, Republic of Korea, Suriname, Tunisia off-shore activities support exporters participation in fairs and Belize, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Japan, Nigeria, exhibitions abroad Philippines, Republic of Korea, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago represent exporters in fairs and exhibitions abroad Jamaica, Suriname, Switzerland participation in trade missions Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Republic of Korea advertising abroad/ image building Belize, Brazil, Egypt, Jamaica, Nigeria, Republic of Korea, Suriname, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia 1 Seringhaus and Botschen (1991). 2 See for instance Aitken et al. (1997). 3 See Box 17 for an explanation of the WTO s trade policy review mechanism. Trade Policy Review (TPR) reports use the term export promotion in the context discussed here, rather than export assistance. The term export assistance is chosen in this box in order to differentiate the activities discussed here from the broader term export promotion strategy as used in the rest of this Report. 4 See Rosen (2005). Source: Trade Policy Review reports published between January 2004 and October 2005 and covering the following 29 WTO Members: Belize, Benin, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, European Communities, Egypt, The Gambia, Jamaica, Japan, Liechtenstein, Mali, Mongolia, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Paraguay, Philippines, Republic of Guinea, Republic of Korea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, United States. No explicit export promotion programs have been reported in: European Communities, The Gambia, Mali, Qatar, Sierra Leone and United States. Rwanda has not set up any arrangements for export promotion. 71

8 Diversification of the productive and export structure requires learning what one is good at producing, which itself involves the discovery of an economy s cost structure. Producers must experiment with new product lines. They must discover whether it is cut flowers, soccer balls or computer software that can be produced at low cost. The problem is that this activity has a great social value but that the entrepreneur who makes the discovery can only appropriate a small part of its social value. If the entrepreneur fails in his venture, he bears the full cost of his failure. If he succeeds, others will follow and he will have to share the value of his discovery. It is important to distinguish discoveries as defined in this paragraph from innovation and R&D. What is involved here is not inventing new products or new processes but discovering that a certain product, already well established in world markets, can be produced at home at low cost. 72 This typically involves technological tinkering to adapt foreign technology to domestic conditions. 73 In the presence of informational externalities of the type just described, laissez-faire leads to underprovision of discovery and governments need to play a dual role. They need to encourage entrepreneurship and investment in new activities ex-ante, but impose discipline and stop unproductive activities ex-post. A comparison of various types of interventions suggests that trade protection is not an efficient way of promoting self-discovery, while both export subsidies and government loans and guarantees have benefits and costs. 74 Export subsidies increase the returns to success while government loans and guarantees lower the losses in case of failure. Export subsidies do not discriminate between innovators and copycats, while government loans and guarantees do. But loans and guarantees distort risk assessment. Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) provide indirect empirical evidence in support of the argument that inadequate incentives to invest in learning what one is good at producing hamper the development of non-traditional activities. They provide support from the literature on international trade, technology transfer and economic history for three separate propositions. The first proposition is that there is a large element of uncertainty about what a country will be good at producing, beyond broad aggregates such as labour-intensive manufactures. Second, there are significant difficulties entailed in importing technology off-the-shelf and successful local adaptation requires considerable domestic tinkering. Third, domestic imitation often proceeds rapidly when the first two difficulties are overcome, bidding away the rents of the early incumbents. Information problems faced by consumers have also provided arguments for interventions in support of infant industries. If industry pioneers have already developed their reputations among consumers, potential competitors offering similar quality products at similar or even lower costs may not be able to penetrate the market. The argument that information barriers might preclude efficient entry would seem to have relevance for a number of manufacturing and services industries. 75 Depending on their assumptions, different analyses have strikingly different policy implications. Under the assumption that firms do not choose the level of quality of their products, subsidies can be shown to improve domestic welfare. 76 However, under the assumption that firms can choose their products attributes, output subsidies, which affect only the price that a firm receives for its product, will not solve the market failure. This is because subsidies reward reputable firms and fly-by-nights equally, and do not alter the incentives that firms face in choosing among these strategies. In such a case, policies that provide a differential incentive for firms to produce goods of higher quality such as minimum quality standards would be preferable. Coordination failures have long been seen as an argument for government intervention. 77 Recent research suggests that coordination failures in taking the necessary actions to increase sector-wide productivity may seriously hamper development as they impede the emergence of activities where industry-specific local externalities are important. 78 Because production and investment decisions in the upstream and downstream parts of industry are often 72 See Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) and Hoff (1997). 73 In their survey of technological transfer, Evenson and Westphal (1995) list adaptations such as technological efforts related to raw material control, product and process quality control, production scheduling, repair and maintenance, changes in production mix, etc. 74 See Hausmann and Rodrik (2003). 75 See Grossman and Horn (1988). 76 See Bagwell and Staiger (1988) or Mayer (1984). 77 See World Bank (1993) for instance. 78 See Rodriguez-Clare (2005). 72

9 interdependent, in the absence of coordination, profitable new industries can fail to develop. Building an airport in a region that has no hotels would not lead to any traffic, but hotels without a regional airport may not be profitable either. Similarly, a large scale irrigation project would not be profitable if there are only few farms using modern technologies, but using such technologies is profitable only if there is adequate irrigation. 79 Two conditions are necessary for coordination failures to arise: new industries must exhibit scale economies and some of the inputs must be non-tradable or require geographic proximity. 80 Under certain circumstances, coordination can be achieved without government intervention but a government role may be required in some cases. The most efficient intervention in the presence of coordination failures is not a production subsidy. There is no need for production subsidies because all the investments, if they are made, are profitable. The purpose of the government s intervention is to ensure that all interrelated investments are made. This can be achieved through pure coordination or through ex-ante subsidy schemes. Examples of such ex-ante subsidies include investment guarantees or implicit bail-outs. One problem is that measures like these induce moral hazard and are prone to abuse. 81 Note that because all industries in principle have characteristics that could generate clusters, but at the same time many industries can operate in the absence of clusters, the appropriate policy should not be targeted on particular sectors but rather be targeted at the activity or technology that would contribute to solving the coordination failure. Capital market imperfections are often seen as an obstacle to industrial development. Capital markets take on a critical role in the process of entry into a new industrial activity. They first intervene in one of the versions of the infant industry argument. In the presence of learning-by-doing, so this argument goes, a producer who could make profits in the long run may not enter the market due to higher costs in the early years than those of incumbent firms. Over time, profits would cover the initial losses but in the absence of well-functioning capital markets, the producer would not have access to the funds he needs. Economic theory tells us that the first best solution in this case is to correct the credit market imperfections directly. For instance, equity injections through venture capital firms would be preferable to protection or production subsidies. 82 Capital market imperfections have also been used to justify credit subsidies and subsidized credit insurance, in particular for exports. The process of entry into a new industrial activity can only be efficient if producers can borrow funds at rates that reflect social cost plus a reasonable premium related to the risk associated with the new activity. However, capital markets are among those most affected by information problems. Equity markets are often weak or absent in developing countries, while credit is often rationed and seldom allocated to the highest bidder. The reason for this is that bidders are bidding promises while lenders are interested in the actual rather than the promised return. As a result, capital is allocated by a screening and evaluation process which is quite different from the one that would be associated with perfect markets. If for some reason the private cost of capital is higher than its social cost, the argument goes, governments must subsidize credits. If on the other hand, some information failure prevents a correct evaluation of the risk associated with new activities, the government should provide subsidized credit insurance. In many countries government agencies exist to assist domestic companies in financing the export of domestic goods and services to international markets. These agencies include the Italian SACE, the French COFACE, the US Ex-Im Bank, the Japanese NEXI and the German EULER HERMES. They provide, for instance, working capital guarantees (pre-export financing); export credit insurance; and loan guarantees and direct loans (buyer financing). In many instances these activities result in the provision of subsidized insurance of export credits and/or the provision of credit finance at subsidized interest rates. See Box 7 for a further discussion on export credits. 79 Rodriguez-Clare (2005) provides several other examples of national and sector level coordination failures. 80 See Rodrik (1996). The cluster approach to development is based on a similar idea. See also the discussion of those conditions in Pack and Saggi (2006). 81 Moral hazard is defined as an insurance-induced alteration of behaviour that makes the event insured against more likely to occur. 82 Stiglitz (1993) discusses the role of governments in financial markets. 73

10 Box 7: The OECD Export Credit Arrangement Under the auspices of the OECD, an Export Credit Arrangement came into existence in The Arrangement places limitations on the terms and conditions of officially supported export credits (e.g. minimum interest rates, risk fees and maximum repayment terms) and the provision of tied aid. It includes procedures for prior notification, consultation, information exchange and review for export credit offers that are exceptions to or derogations from the rules as well as tied aid offers. The participants to the Arrangement are: Australia, Canada, the European Community, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and the United States. The OECD regularly collects data on the export credit activities of the members to the Export Credit Arrangement. The Table below gives information on the value of transactions covered by long-term export credits for the years It also gives information on the allocation of export credits across sectors in the mentioned period. Around 40 per cent of total transaction value was allocated to transport and storage in most of the years, while around one-third was dedicated to energy-related activities. The bulk of the former transactions went to the air transport sector. A lot of the energy-related transactions were related to coal-fired, gas-fired or nuclear power plants and to energy manufacturing. Note that separate sector understandings exist on export credits for ships, nuclear power plants, civil aircraft and during a trial period up to June 2007 for renewable energies and water projects. Long-term (over five years) export credits by sector, (Percentages and billion dollars) SECTOR Percentage Agriculture Communications Construction Other services Energy generation and supply Industry of which chemicals of which energy manufacturing Fishing Forestry Mineral resources and mining Transport and storage Water supply and sanitation Others Billion dollars TOTAL Source: OECD (2005b). From a theoretical point of view, this argument is not completely straightforward. Consider first the case for subsidized insurance. The case for intervention would need to rest on potential insurers irrational aversion to risk or their systematic overestimation of the risk associated with new activities. It would also rest on the assumption that the government is better able than the private sector to assess risk. Economists do not see this case as very compelling. 83 Even the more sophisticated arguments, where the absence of an insurance market is explained by moral hazard or adverse selection, are not regarded as compelling because governments are not deemed to have a particular advantage over the market in dealing with those informational problems See Grossman (1990) and Panagariya (2000). 84 See Panagariya (2000). 74

11 Similarly, in the case of credit subsidies, it has been argued that so far no compelling case for such subsidies has been articulated. 85 Grossman (1990) examines the precise market interactions that might give rise to a divergence between private and social discount rates. He shows that it may be difficult if not impossible for the government to know ex ante whether to encourage or discourage investments in some new activity to compensate for the biases stemming from imperfections in private capital markets. His conclusion is that a cautious policy response to alleged capital market imperfections seems advisable. (c) Implementation issues Much of the discussion regarding the merits of industrial development policies has focused on the administrative and fiscal feasibility of government interventions, their informational requirements, and their political economy consequences. Economists typically agree on the theoretical case for government intervention in the presence of market failures, such as those discussed above, although there is some disagreement regarding the empirical relevance of the cases that have been identified. However, as already mentioned, there is a clear divergence of views on the feasibility issue, which is closely related to the divergence in the interpretation of the East Asian success stories and other experiences. This subsection considers the feasibility issue while the next one summarizes the debate on the lessons to draw from existing experiences. Lall (2002) proposes a useful typology of export promotion policies that can be applied to industrial policy interventions. He first distinguishes between two groups of policies according to the nature of the market failure they are supposed to address. The first group includes permissive policies, that is, policies aimed at removing distortions created by policies that deter exporting or more generally the development of new activities. This group includes mainly policy reforms aimed at reducing macro-policy mismanagement and uncertainty, make exporting profitable and minimizing transaction costs to producers. Permissive policies are fairly uncontroversial. The second group comprises positive policies to overcome structural market deficiencies in the creation of new advantages. Positive policies aim mainly at encouraging new activities. They can be subdivided into functional and selective interventions. Functional interventions are market-friendly interventions aimed at addressing market failures without directly modifying resource allocation between specific activities. Examples of functional policies would include improvements in physical infrastructure, human capital or the functioning of capital markets, or the provision of information and technical support to potential exporters. Functional policies are also relatively uncontroversial. 86 Selective interventions are the most controversial. They intend to influence resource allocation, through specific subsidies or protection, credit direction, creation of specific skills or technologies, promoting large firms or attracting specific investors, etc. The mainstream view of development, often termed the market friendly view, would accept the need for permissive and functional interventions but reject the use of selective interventions. 87 In the mainstream view, only the failures that call for functional interventions should be addressed. Failures that require selectivity are either unimportant or cannot be remedied. In other words, either the cost of selective market failures is low enough not to matter, or it is lower than the cost of government failures. This view has been criticized on the one side by those who think that getting the prices right is sufficient for an economy to reach optimality, and that neither functional nor selective measures are justified. On the other side, there are those who think that market failures are important and pervasive, and that effective remedies can be devised. 88 The espousal of this view implies a crucial role for governments, including through selective interventions. Various arguments against selective interventions have been discussed in the literature. Among the main arguments are that developing countries lack the competent bureaucracies to render such interventions effective, that governments cannot pick the winners and that interventions are prone to political capture and corruption. The following paragraphs discuss these arguments in more detail. 85 See Panagariya (2000) and Grossman (1990). 86 Certain functional policies, such as investment in transport infrastructure, may be relatively uncontroversial from an economic perspective, but controversial from an environmental perspective. 87 See Noland and Pack (2003) for a recent restatement of the mainstream market-friendly position. 88 A strong neo-classical position would accept only permissive interventions while a structuralist or revisionist view would support certain selective interventions. 75

12 First, the implementation of selective interventions requires a considerable amount of information and skill. 89 As discussed, domestic market failures should be corrected by domestic policies aimed directly at the source of the problem. Governments thus need to have fairly detailed information about the nature and the location of market failures that need to be addressed. For instance, governments would need to identify industries where domestic producers would have a comparative advantage but where learning spillovers prevent the development of a local industry. However, market failures such as learning spillovers or coordination problems are typically hard to identify precisely, so that it tends to be difficult to be sure about the appropriate policy response. There is no reason to assume that the government is well informed or even that it is better informed than the private sector. Moreover, it has been shown that the administration of export subsidies in particular tends to be organizationally demanding. 90 Technical and administrative skills are needed to understand and design strategies and interventions, to implement and improve them over time, to communicate with the private sector and to ensure that agency problems are overcome. 91 Such skills are often in short supply in developing countries. Various authors consider that information and skills problems should not be exaggerated. In their view, governments have to decide upon which path they set the economy, but they do not need to assess the costs and benefits of different outcomes. More importantly, they believe that even good decision-making by governments necessarily involves errors. 92 According to Rodrik (2004), the key is to make sure that the State and the firms work together. Public officials need to be able to elicit information from the business sector on an ongoing basis about opportunities, constraints, technological and market parameters and local capabilities. The problem is that, as discussed below, with increased proximity between the government and private interests the risk of capture increases. Second, industrial policy is open to political capture, corruption and rent-seeking. The neo-classical politicaleconomy literature on trade policy shows how government intervention is likely to produce inefficiencies. Decision-makers in the public sector are modelled as individuals who maximize their welfare and not necessarily the welfare of society. Several conclusions emerge from this type of analysis. 93 Because discretionary behaviour by government officials comes at a cost, a rules-based policy regime which entails high degrees of precommitment is advantageous. Moreover, policy stability and predictability help coax the desired response from the private sector. Finally, policies that create rents also create rent seekers. Bureaucrats thus have an incentive to create rents. These conclusions lead to an obvious conclusion: policy interventions should be avoided and the role of the government should be minimized, but in any case, private groups should be kept at arms length from the government. The risk of political capture is even higher for selective interventions with all the difficulties associated with their implementation. As regards the infant-industry argument, political economy models suggest that while the infant-industry argument is typically an argument for temporary interventions, policies tend to get captured by special interests and become permanent. While most economists would agree that the results from these public choice models are useful to understand the effect of industrial policies, they would not all agree with the broad policy conclusions that have been derived from those models. The latter argue that government capabilities can be improved, that the degree of selectivity can be adapted to the level of capabilities, and that governments can be helped to intervene efficiently. 94 Rodrik (1993) suggests that academic economists views on state capabilities is superficial and that there is much to be learned by undertaking systematic analytical studies of state capabilities. Rodrik (2004) goes one step further and proposes an institutional framework for redeploying industrial policy in a more effective manner. The principal-agent model, with the government as the principal and the firms as its agent does not work well, notwithstanding the articulation of an optimal policy that aligns the firms behaviour with the government s objectives at least cost. Ideally, one would need a more flexible form of strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors, designed to elicit information about objectives, distribute responsibilities for solutions, and evaluate outcomes as they appear. 89 See Pack and Saggi (2006). 90 See Levy (1993). 91 See Lall (2002). 92 See Stiglitz (1996). 93 See Rodrik (1993) and Shapiro and Taylor (1990). 94 See Lall (2002). 76

13 There are also reasons to believe that from the point of view of implementation, export promotion has some advantages compared with import substitution. Panagariya (2000), while generally in favour of laissez-faire, points to two reasons to prefer export promotion to import substitution on political economy grounds. The first is that chances to pick an industry where the country has a comparative advantage are better and the second is that the costs of subsidies, which show up in budgets, are more transparent than those of tariffs. Along similar lines, Noland and Pack (2003) come to the conclusion that the use of export performance to measure success rather than the provision of open-ended protection for inefficient sectors explains why Asian industrial policies have a better record than import substitution experiences elsewhere. They note that as a purely practical matter, performance in world markets was probably the criterion least amenable to rigging by the firms or their bureaucratic counterparts. Two further points have been raised against the use of selective policies. One is that most interventions, and in particular subsidies, use scarce resources. 95 Yet the opportunity cost of industrial policy interventions and the deadweight loss often imposed on other sectors by taxes used to pay for subsidies are typically not taken into account in policy assessments. This is a very general argument but not necessarily one that would condemn all selective interventions. Clearly, resource costs should be taken into account. The other point, which will be discussed in Section F below, is that multilateral disciplines restrict the use of some selective interventions. And more generally, in the case where interventions have a negative impact on third parties, the risk of retaliation should be taken into account. (d) Export Processing Zones and industrial development Export processing zones (EPZs) have been established over decades and today significant shares of developing countries manufactured exports originate in EPZs. This Section defines EPZs as geographic areas that offer firms established within them more liberal trade conditions and a more liberal regulatory environment than common within the relevant country. 96 Note that this definition therefore does not include maquiladoras that distinguish themselves from other companies purely through their economic activities and not necessarily through their location. Paraguay, for instance, has different legislations for maquiladoras and for EPZs, with maquiladoras being defined as companies that perform value-added activities for foreign companies using the goods and services provided by those foreign companies. Those value-added activities include transformation, elaboration, repair, assembly or industrial processing. The final products of the maquiladoras are expected to be re-exported, but maquiladoras do not need to be located in specific zones. Traditionally, EPZs have been considered to specialize in the export of manufactures, but some of them have increasingly engaged in the exports of services. 97 The incentives provided differ in nature and can change over time. One might consider the bulk of these measures as indirect subsidies, as direct cash payments are typically avoided. In most cases, a special legal infrastructure is provided at the outset. Most EPZs offer a combination of three types of incentives to companies established in the relevant area. First, many EPZs are characterized by a transport and telecommunication infrastructure that is superior to the one generally found in the country. A number of services may also be provided by the government at below cost to firms established in the zone. Second, import and export duties are typically waived on the trade flows between the EPZ and foreign countries. Third, profits from EPZ activities tend to be exempt from income and/or corporate tax for a number of years. In many cases, the aim behind the special incentives provided in EPZs seems to have been to attract foreign companies. The idea was that foreign investment would create jobs and lead to positive spillovers on the rest of the economy, thus stimulating overall growth. 98 More recently, the literature has put stronger emphasis on the role EPZs can play as a transition tool from a closed to an open economy. On the basis of optimal tax theory, it can be argued that taxes should be lower for activities that are more sensitive with respect to the tax rate. To the extent that FDI is more footloose than domestic investment, fiscal incentives 95 See Noland and Pack (2003). 96 In the same context a variety of terminologies, such as industrial free zones, free trade zones and special economic zones have been used in the literature and by policy makers. See Madani (1999) for an overview. 97 See, for instance, WTO (2005a) on the importance of IT exports for Jamaica s EPZs. 98 See Pack and Saggi (2006). 77

14 for foreign investors in EPZs can therefore be justified. In principal, such incentives could have a permanent character, but the literature has stressed that the benefits from such fiscal incentives are likely to be reduced or eroded in the case of tax competition from other countries. 99 Tax incentives, therefore, do not necessarily trigger more FDI. Even if an EPZ manages to attract FDI, the benefits of such FDI for the economy as a whole will largely depend on the linkages that take place between firms based in the EPZ and other domestic firms. 100 EPZs have also been regarded in the literature as a useful stepping stone from a closed economy to a fully open and integrated economy. 101 In particular, they may address two types of challenges countries face when liberalizing their trade regime and in this context could be interpreted as an example of the permissive or functional policy interventions discussed previously. The first challenge is the one society faces due to the change in price signals following liberalization. Such changes may trigger significant and sometimes costly transition processes and may have important impacts on income distribution. Depending on the extent of such changes, they may trigger serious economic hardship for some, and lead to opposition against reform and/or other social conflicts. An attractive feature of EPZs is that they restrict such price changes to certain geographic areas. If companies based in EPZs are exempted from import and export charges, they face correct price incentives. New profit opportunities are thus given at the margin, while the disruption of existing economic activities is minor. The gains from such partial liberalization are likely to be limited, though, and ultimately the authorities should consider extending trade liberalization to the rest of the economy. It has been argued in the literature that the existence of EPZs may create a protectionist bias in the long-run, as companies based in the EPZ have no incentive to lobby for further liberalization. Overall, political pressure in favour of full liberalization would therefore be lower in countries with established EPZs than in countries without EPZs. 102 If this is the case, the effectiveness of EPZs as an adjustment tool would be significantly hampered. The second challenge refers to the introduction of complementary policies necessary for successful trade liberalization that have been emphasized in the recent trade literature. 103 In particular, it has been argued that the lack of appropriate infrastructure can seriously impede countries supply response to trade liberalization. Given limited government resources, especially in developing countries, it would be very difficult to make the necessary investments in infrastructure prior to or in parallel with trade liberalization on an economywide basis. EPZs are often provided with better infrastructure than the rest of the country. Upgrading the infrastructure for companies engaged in exporting then levels the playing field with respect to competitors abroad. The provision of infrastructure in EPZs can thus be seen as a stepping stone towards the provision of high quality infrastructure in the entire economy. The use of this policy tool in EPZs does not create the type of protectionist bias that has been discussed in the previous paragraph. Trade Policy Reviews provide information on the existence and characteristics of export processing zones and other free zones in WTO Members. Among the 29 Members reviewed between January 2004 and October 2005, 17 were reported to have adopted some type of free zone. Japan, Liechtenstein, Norway, the Republic of Guinea and Qatar were reported not to have any EPZs. In Rwanda, Suriname and Sierra Leone, relevant legislation concerning the establishment of EPZs was still under consideration at the time of the report, and in Mongolia such a law had existed since 2002 but no EPZ had been created by March See, for instance Rodríguez-Clare (2004). 100 See the next subsection for evidence of the effect of EPZs on host economies. 101 See Schweinberger (2003) for a general modelling framework for special economic zones. The paper contends that by imposing appropriate employment taxes and/or subsidies in conjunction with the creation of the special economic zone, the special economic zone: (a) results in an increase in government revenue; (b) does not generate conflict among households; and (c) brings about structural change only in the geographic entity declared special economic zone. See also the discussion in Rodrik (2002) on the role of EPZs and special zones in Mauritius and China. 102 Cadot et al. (2003) develop this argument with respect to duty-drawbacks. 103 See for instance WTO (2004). 104 The TPR reports for Burkina Faso and Mali make no reference to Export Processing Zones. The TPR for Switzerland makes reference to the existence of Free Ports that provide warehousing facilities. The trade policies of Liechtenstein and Switzerland are reviewed together in one Trade Policy Review report. See the footnote in Box 6 for the list of Members reviewed in the relevant period. 78

15 Table 1 provides an overview of the characteristics of the free zones in the other 17 surveyed Members. The Table shows that in most free zones established companies benefit from tariff reductions or exemptions on imports and from tax reductions or exemptions related to their revenue. Normally companies established in the zones and taking advantage of those benefits are supposed to export most of their production and limits exists on the amount of goods or services that can be supplied to the territory in which the EPZ is located. In other zones, companies can sell their products or services where they want but the tax and duty benefits only apply to the share of their production that is exported. Ecuador is an exception to this rule, as companies in the free zones do also not appear to be required to pay income tax for their sales to the customs territory of Ecuador. This may explain why around 70 per cent of the free zones exports went to the customs territory of Ecuador between 2000 and Through their tax and duty reductions, companies in the free zones face different price signals than other companies. But in some zones companies also have other cost advantages, in particular relating to infrastructure and regulatory costs. Most zones offer simplified import and export procedures to their users. Setting up a business is also frequently easier within the zones than in the national customs territory. In Jamaica, Nigeria and Tunisia, support is also directed to the development of infrastructure within the free zones or to facilitating access to other services that may be relevant for users. Table 1 Instruments used in export processing zones or other special zones according to TPRs, January 2004-October 2005 Classification of activity 1 Direct Payments Investment Support Reimbursement of transport costs for exports Member Tunisia Tunisia 2 Provision of infrastructure and other services below cost Infrastructure development Nigeria Ware housing facilities European Union, Nigeria, Singapore, United States Preferential land rental Nigeria, Sri Lanka Others Jamaica, Nigeria 3 Tax Breaks Profit/corporate/income/sales tax relief Facilitated repatriation of profits 4 Tariff reductions or exemptions Duty drawbacks/exemptions for imports/ VAT refunds for imports Exemptions from export taxes 5 Other Special regime for labour relations Simplified commercial procedures related to imports (for instance: no import or export licensing required, no quantitative restrictions) Simplified procedures to set up commercial activity Belize, Brazil, Ecuador, Egypt, The Gambia, Jamaica, Republic of Korea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, United States Nigeria Belize, Benin, Brazil, Ecuador, Egypt, European Union, The Gambia, Jamaica, Republic of Korea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, United States Belize Egypt, Nigeria Belize, Ecuador, Egypt, Jamaica, Republic of Korea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago Ecuador, Nigeria Source: Trade Policy Review reports published between January 2004 and October The relevance of EPZs for a country s trade differs significantly across countries. 105 Exports from EPZs represented only 0.3 per cent of Nigeria s merchandise exports in 2003, 1.6 per cent of Trinidad and Tobago s exports in 2004 and 2.1 per cent of US exports in In Sri Lanka, by contrast, exports from EPZs represented 25.1 per cent of total merchandise exports in 2002, while in Jamaica the relevant percentage went down from 21.8 per cent in 1996 to 8.8 per cent in EPZs also play an important role in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, 105 Employment in EPZs is estimated to be around 13 million at the global level (ILO, 2003). 106 Figures based on information provided in relevant Trade Policy Reviews and own calculations. 107 Figures based on information provided in relevant Trade Policy Reviews and own calculations. 79

16 Morocco and Tunisia. Information from national statistics reveals that EPZ exports represented 19 per cent of total merchandise exports in Bangladesh in 2002/03, 76.8 per cent in the Dominican Republic in 2004, 55.3 per cent in El Salvador in 2004, 37 per cent in Morocco in 2003 and 69.3 per cent in Tunisia in (e) Empirical evidence regarding the effects of industrial development subsidies As already mentioned, the experiences of East Asian economies with industrial policy and the issue whether they might teach any lesson to other developing countries figure prominently in the debate about the role of government intervention in development policies. Given the prominent role played by subsidies in East Asian export promotion strategies, these experiences are particularly relevant. This subsection does not survey the wealth of literature on this topic others have done it but rather presents the main arguments in the debate. 108 Some of the principal results in the literature concerning other more recent experiences are also presented. Early explanations of the growth performance of the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei emphasized the importance of getting the fundamentals right and outward orientation with few price distortions. In the 1980s, however, several scholars pointed out that these two economies had also used selective interventions, such as incentives to individual sectors, restrictions on trade and inward FDI and tight control of the financial sector. In 1993, in a Report entitled The East Asian Miracle, the World Bank proposed a compromise interpretation. It acknowledged the important role of both getting the fundamentals right and export-push strategies. The Report suggested that in Japan, the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei, incentives were neutral on average, with export incentives offsetting substantial remaining protection. Firm-specific export targets were also part of the Republic of Korea s export promotion strategy, but actual exports often exceeded the targets. Governments made efforts to promote specific export industries. They also gradually reduced protection, and provided institutional support to exporters and a duty-free regime for inputs used in exports. The World Bank found that... in some instances, government interventions resulted in higher and more equal growth than otherwise would have occurred. However, the prerequisites for success were so rigorous that policymakers seeking to follow similar paths in other developing economies have often met with failure. The Report mentions two prerequisites: institutional mechanisms which allowed the setting of clear performance criteria for selective interventions and to monitor performance, and mechanisms that prevented the costs of interventions becoming excessive. The benefits from using exports as a performance yardstick are strongly emphasized in the Report. Partly catalyzed by the publication of The East Asian Miracle, an enormous amount of empirical research on the effect of selective industrial policy has since been conducted. Noland and Pack (2003) survey this research and conclude that, on balance, the weight of the evidence derived from both econometric and input-output studies indicates that industrial policy made a minor contribution to growth in Asia. Empirical work on Japan, the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei fails to find links between interventions and sectoral productivity growth or trade performance. Available evidence also fails to prove that the rate of productivity growth in neglected sectors was increased indirectly by the growth of the favoured sectors. Evidence suggests, however, that in both Japan and Chinese Taipei the pattern of interventions was driven more by political economy considerations, such as sectoral employment, the presence of large firms, or the degree of sectoral concentration, than by dynamic comparative advantage. The main factors that contributed to the Asian Miracle were good macroeconomic policy, including limited government deficits, low rates of inflation, and very stable real exchange rates. 109 These factors were conducive to high rates of saving and investment, which played a critical role in the growth story. Another critical component was the bias towards exporting. Noland and Pack mention four other reasons why the East Asian experience should not be seen as a justification for selective interventions. First, the policies deployed were exceptionally complex and were implemented under conditions of political stability by highly competent bureaucracies. Second, the financial crisis in the late 1990s should be factored into the assessment of the policies. Third, the tightened rules of the multilateral system would make it more difficult to use some of the instruments that were used by Japan, the Republic of Korea and Chinese Taipei. Fourth, the experiences of Hong-Kong, China and Singapore show that there are alternatives to selective interventions. 108 See Hernandez (2004), Noland and Pack (2003) and Lall (2002). 109 See Noland and Pack (2003). 80

17 Rodrik (2004) has a different interpretation of the East Asian experience. He argues that industrial policies have played a role in most non-traditional export success stories around the world, notably in East Asia. The fact that the literature provides numerous examples of success and failure stories of individual projects fits very well with his argument that even under optimal incentive programmes, some of the investments that are promoted will turn out to be failures. Optimal cost discovery requires equating the social marginal cost of investment funds to the expected returns of projects in new areas. The realized return on some of the projects will necessarily be low or negative, to be compensated by the high return on the successes. Lall (2002) discusses various indicators of the performance of East Asian Tigers and loosely relates them to the policies they pursued. He argues that the export success of the Tigers suggests that they did something right in mounting their selective interventions. However, he also discusses extensively the conditions that made this success possible and notes that selective interventions could work so well only because the institutional setting was appropriate. His conclusion is that when all is said and done, there does remain some scope for the use of selective policies to promote exports, but its exact scope still has to be delineated. Chang (2002) also supports the use of activist industrial policies. He examines the experiences of a range of now developed countries including the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan and considers what kinds of industrial, trade and technology policies they used in the early stages of their development. He shows that almost every one of those countries used infant-industry protection and other activist industrial policies when they were catching-up economies. There was a considerable degree of diversity among those countries in terms of their policy mix. Other tools that were used include export subsidies, tariff rebates on inputs used for exports, conferring of monopoly rights, cartel arrangements, directed credits, and support for R&D. Chang, however, does not provide evidence regarding the effect of activist policies on economic performance. Evidence concerning the effects of export subsidies and other export promotion measures is also mixed. There is evidence that selective governmental intervention in support of particular forms of non-traditional exporting activity both through special incentives and through other types of encouragement and support, including specific training and research, credit, and marketing assistance were important to the development of nontraditional exports in Chile and Costa Rica. 110 In Costa Rica and to a lesser extent in Chile, active policies to encourage FDI into priority sectors played a role. In other regions, export promotion policies were less successful. Ndulu et al. (2002) describes export promotion programmes in Tanzania and assesses their impact. In the post-1984 period, a combination of macro-policy incentives and specific policies led to an initial swift response and general upswing in non-traditional exports. For various reasons related to difficulties with the implementation of the measures and more general supplyside constraints, however, the momentum was not sustained. Implementation problems were also identified in other African countries. Reviewing the system of export incentives in 13 African countries, Hinkle et al. (2003) conclude that no sample country came anywhere close to international best practice for export incentives. Panagariya (2000) reviewed cases of export subsidies in Asia and Latin America where scanty results did not seem to warrant the costs incurred during decades of export subsidization. Conversely, he found that as soon as trade liberalization and sound macroeconomic policies were pursued, good progress on exports was made despite a simultaneous and sharp reduction of export subsidies. Nogues (1989) reviewed a large number of country experiences and concluded that the diversification of exports towards manufactures occurred when policies of more open import regimes and relative stability in real exchange rates were pursued. In contrast, the provision of export subsidies was not a common element among successful countries. He found that subsidizing countries faced large opportunity costs and an additional waste of resources through rent-seeking activities induced in the private sector. While EPZs have triggered a rise in exports, job creation and income generation in some cases, the literature suggests that they have frequently not fulfilled the expected role of engines of industrialization and growth as some proponents had anticipated. 111 Helleiner (2002) notes that in Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe EPZs were not important contributors to non-traditional export success. But EPZs played a critical role in the case of Mauritius. The five studies 110 See the essay by Agosin (2002) on Chile and the essay by Rodriguez (2002) on Costa Rica in Helleiner (2002). 111 See the references in World Bank (2004). 81

18 of African countries in Helleiner s work also show that FDI has not as yet made a particularly important contribution to African non-traditional export expansion. Even in the Mauritius EPZ experience, domestic investment was dominant. Subramanian and Roy (2001) compare the Mauritian success with the failures of EPZs in other countries and link the difference in impact with differences in implementation. Madani (1999) concludes that EPZs can only play a dynamic role in a country s development under certain conditions including an appropriate setup and good management and this only as a transitional step in an integrated movement toward general liberalization of the economy. 2. Innovation and support for national champions Innovations are an important driver of economic growth. They spur growth in the country where innovations take place, at least if the country manages to make use of these innovations in economic terms. They also spur growth in countries that manage to understand, use, produce and commercialize the innovations made elsewhere. In other words, it is not only the creation of innovations that matters for growth but also the absorption of innovations made by others. This subsection will only deal with the first aspect of innovation, i.e. with innovations at the global knowledge frontier, and not with the absorption of innovations that has to some extent been dealt with in the previous subsection. Innovations may be radical, consisting in the invention of completely new processes or products, or incremental, improving upon existing products or processes. Both types of innovations tend to be the outcome of previous efforts and investments in research and development and the required investments are frequently significant. Given the often lucrative returns to the successful introduction of innovation, private entities can be expected to be interested in conducting research and in paying for it. Yet governments around the world have traditionally intervened in R&D activities. They have done so by supporting education and thus human capital formation necessary for R&D activities. But they also sponsor R&D activities directly, both in public establishments, like universities, or in private entities. Economists justify such government intervention on the grounds of two characteristics of research and development that trigger market failures. The first justification is linked to the fact that innovations have public-good characteristics and the second to the size of R&D costs and ensuing economies of scale in R&D intensive industries. The discussion in Section C indicated that both characteristics would lead economists to conclude that the private sector is likely to invest less in R&D activities than would be desirable from the country s point of view. R&D efforts aim at creating knowledge and knowledge has public-good characteristics, making it likely that the benefits of the created knowledge for society exceed those that the creator of the knowledge is able to appropriate. This is so because knowledge generated through an R&D effort may spread and once others have acquired the knowledge they may use it to their own benefit. R&D activities thus give rise to positive externalities that is, benefits for actors that are not involved in the original R&D activities. The fact that private companies do not take those positive spillovers into account when making their investment decision with respect to R&D is likely to result in under-investment in R&D from society s point of view. Governments may therefore want to intervene in order to increase investment in R&D. 112 The relevance of knowledge spillovers was already raised by Marshall in the 1920s and has been discussed in the 1960s by economists like Arrow. While the existence of such spillovers has never really been questioned, economists still only have a partial understanding of their precise nature. Yet it would be necessary to understand how spillovers take place to determine the best type of policy intervention to stimulate R&D. It is generally accepted that intellectual property rights, like patent protection, can help to correct the market failure caused by positive knowledge spillovers to a significant extent. A patent guarantees to its owner the sole use of a patented invention during a specified period of time. During that period the patent owner will be able to reap monopoly benefits from the new product or process and will thus be able to recover the initial investments made in R&D, at least to some extent. Once the patent expires others will be able to use the knowledge contained in the patent and potentially compete with the original inventor in the relevant market. The length of the patent protection will to a large extent determine whether the appropriate balance is struck between encouraging R&D investments on the one hand and allowing society to benefit from knowledge spillovers generated through these investments on the other. In a global set-up, intellectual property right protection needs to be international in order to maintain the incentives for R&D investments. 112 See, for instance, the discussion in Grossman (1990). 82

19 Although appropriate intellectual property right protection helps to encourage R&D, it may not be possible to design it in such a way that spillovers are completely internalized. Private investment in R&D would thus continue to be suboptimal. Besides, intellectual property right protection does not help to overcome the other market failure that may be relevant for R&D activities the one arising due to the high levels of investment needed for R&D. High fixed costs, in terms of high initial R&D investments, give raise to increasing economies of scale. This may lead to situations where a private company would never be able to recover the initial R&D costs (even in the absence of spillovers) and would as a consequence never make the initial investment. From the point of view of the economy, however, the investment may be desirable because it leads to significant consumer gains. 113 Empirical research confirms the relevance of this argument. It has been shown that consumer benefits from major new innovations have been quite large compared with the research costs borne by the innovators. 114 Government support for major new innovations may thus be justified, although it may be difficult for the government to identify the most promising R&D efforts. The weight of R&D in economic activities appears to have increased over time and around the world. At the global level R&D expenditure represented 0.85 per cent of GDP in the 1990s compared with 0.42 per cent in the 1960s. 115 High-income countries invest significantly more in R&D than developing countries. The median level of R&D expenditure in high-income countries reached 1.19 per cent of GDP in the 1960s and 1.73 per cent in the 1990s. 116 The corresponding figures for developing countries are 0.21 per cent in the 1960s and 0.59 per cent in the 1990s. There seems to be some agreement in the economic literature that industrialized countries have a comparative advantage in R&D-intensive activities and that they should therefore allocate more resources to such activities. Developing countries, instead, should put more weight on enhancing their capacity to absorb new innovations than on participating in cutting-edge research. Rodríguez-Clare (2004), for instance, argues that only the more advanced countries should focus on research and development and relates his argument to the recent finding by Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) that growth is associated with increased diversification in production during earlier stages of development and only later on with increasing concentration, i.e. increasing productivity in existing activities. Other authors are more nuanced and acknowledge that distinctions need to be made among different groups of developing countries. Watson et al. (2003) distinguish three types of developing countries: scientificallyproficient countries (e.g. Brazil, China, India and South Africa), scientifically-developing countries (e.g. Colombia, Indonesia and Pakistan) and scientifically-lagging countries (e.g. Nepal, Mali, Ecuador, Libya). The first group contains countries that define their relationships with the scientifically-advanced countries on the basis of equality or near equality, the second group contains countries that have pockets of adequate scientific and technological capacity amidst general scarcity, while such capacity is almost entirely lacking in the third group. For the third group it would be unwise to focus on knowledge advancement or cutting-edge research, in particular when taking into account their resource constraints. A cursory look at expenditure on research and development in a number of developing and developed countries in recent years confirms the idea that more advanced economies invest more in R&D. Table 2 shows that economies like Japan, the United States and, to a lesser extent, the European Union spend a significantly higher share of their GDP for research and development than countries like Brazil, India and China. The Table reflects R&D expenditure from private and public domestic sources and from foreign sources. The role of the business sector and the government in R&D funding differ significantly across countries. The business sector accounted for almost 62 per cent of funding in OECD countries in This value reflects more or less the share of business funding in the United States, whereas Japanese companies participate more in national 113 See, for instance, the example of a monopolist facing high fixed costs as discussed in Grossman (1990). In a case of large fixed costs, it is possible that the price consumers are willing to pay remains below average costs, but that consumer surplus and the firm s revenue together exceed the total cost of production for certain levels of output. In such cases production is not profitable for the company, but may be desirable from a welfare point of view. For more detail, see the discussion of the market failure occurring as a result of so-called economies of scale in Section C of this Report. 114 See for instance Bresnahan (1986) and Trajtenberg (1989). 115 These values refer to median levels and are based on information provided in Lederman and Saenz (2005). The values refer to R&D expenditure financed by the productive sector, the public sector and foreign sources. Separate values for R&D financed by the public sectors are not provided in the article. 116 Country groupings as defined in Lederman and Saenz (2005). 83

20 R&D efforts (74 per cent of total R&D expenditure) and European companies less (55 per cent of total R&D expenditure). In developing countries the role of the private sector in R&D spending tends to be lower. It was, for instance, 40 per cent in Brazil in 2003 and 23 per cent in India in Table 2 R&D expenditure as percentage of GDP, Argentina Brazil China EU (15) EU (25) India Japan Mexico South Africa Tunisia United States Source: RICYT (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), OECD MSTI Database May 2005 (EU(15), Japan, United States). UNESCO, Science and Technology Indicators March 2005 (China, India, Tunisia and South Africa). The values for South Africa represent values for the years 1998 and When concentrating on government expenditure on research and development, 117 the difference between developing and developed countries in our sample is less clear-cut, as illustrated in Table 3. Brazil, the European Union, India and Japan all allocate around 0.6 per cent of their GDP to research and development. Government expenditure on R&D is highest in the United States, and reached 0.81 per cent in In 2005 nearly two-thirds of the US government s R&D budged was devoted to defence. 118 For most countries in Table 3 where data are available, government expenditure on R&D represented a relatively stable share of GDP between 1999 and Table 3 Government financed R&D expenditure as percentage of GDP, Argentina Brazil China EU (25) India Japan Mexico South Africa a Tunisia United States a Data refer to Note: Governmental expenditure represents the sum of direct expenditure by government and expenditure by higher education for the data coming from RICYT and UNESCO. For the relevant countries the values in this table may be overestimated to the extent that higher education R&D is actually financed by the private sector. Source: RICYT (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), OECD MSTI Database May 2005 (EU(15), Japan, United States), UNESCO Science and Technology Indicators March 2005 (China, India, Tunisia and South Africa). 117 Governments use a variety of tools to support R&D other than outright R&D expenditure. R&D tax concessions are, for instance, extensively used by OECD countries as an indirect way of encouraging business R&D expenditure. Special tax treatment for R&D expenditure can take various forms, including immediate write-offs of current R&D expenditures and various types of tax relief such as tax credits or allowances against taxable incomes. Tax subsidies for R&D have increased in 16 out of 24 OECD countries between 1995 and 2004 (OECD, 2005c). In 2004 the rate of tax subsidies was highest in Spain, followed by Mexico and Portugal. Japan ranked nine out of 24 with respect to the use of tax subsidies and the United States ranked 14. Unfortunately, the information available in the OECD database on R&D and innovation does not make it possible to compare the size of such budgetary losses through tax concessions with the size of direct government expenditure on R&D. 118 OECD (2005c). 84

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