I am not sure if this was already posted on the thread, but a small Detroit based company which breaks down vehicles for analysis has done so for the Model 3, and "it ain't pretty." Not all bad news by any means, though.

"Tesla Model 3 impresses German automaker after being reverse-engineered"

They shared insights from the engineers:

“Each sub-assembly system was put to the test, but the testers were especially impressed by the power electronics. Compact, expandable, fully integrated, modular, easily accessible, well-protected, reasonably priced and astonishingly clever in many details – that was the verdict of the experts, to which colleagues from other manufacturers also agreed.”

Aside from the engineering, they were also impressed by the design. They went as far as saying that Tesla “perfected the minimalist design” – referring to the Model 3’s interior.

But they see the minimalist spreading to the powertrain:

“This minimalism runs through the entire vehicle. There is initially only one engine, only one forward and reverse gear, only one driven pair of wheels, only one cooling circuit for the entire system.”

I would think that once the tax incentive is gone, the number is going to drop like a rock.

During my decision making to order or wait for base model, I did a savings estimate for a long trip.
From Atlanta to detroit, for a Model S 100D (Range of 335 miles), the savings given were $96 with 4 stops totaling 145 mins (2 hours 25 mins).
For Model 3 (330 miles), it is showing gas savings of $17 with 5 stops totaling 165 mins (2 hrs 45 mins)

Would that $17 savings be good enough for those like me (love to have the car with rebate but cant afford in a boglehead way of putting 50K)?
Definitely not. I would rather use my highlander for these long drives since i will be paying for the charging.

I would definitely be interested in base model with a 7500 credit and keeping my fingers crossed for the delivery numbers for second qtr.

I just cancelled my reservation. When I made the reservation on 4/1/16 (April Fools' Day) the M3 was expected to replace my DW's 2002 C240 no later than 1st quarter 2018, and we expected to want few if any options above the base model. I cancelled for the obvious reasons:

don't want a M3 with $12-14k of unwanted options
looking likely that the Fed rebate will be smaller or zero in a year, and don't want to wait & see
the 2002 C240 runs fine but is a bit ragged, and DW doesn't not want to drive it another year
I've decided I don't want to take the chance on having to adapt to an EV with little local support

So now we plan to look for a late model used BMW 5-series or MB E-class.

On tesla survival and need to raise funds.
They say and might well be just around the bend from selling 5,000 cars a week.
@minimum $35,000 a car, that is 175M a week revenue, 700 M month revenue, and that would be more than 9B/yr revenue.
And they might have 2yrs worth of orders.

On tesla survival and need to raise funds.
They say and might well be just around the bend from selling 5,000 cars a week.
@minimum $35,000 a car, that is 175M a week revenue, 700 M month revenue, and that would be more than 9B/yr revenue.
And they might have 2yrs worth of orders.

The earnings call was fascinating. I encourage interested parties to read the shareholder letter because it is extremely well written and approachable. Highlights:

About 1/3 market share in April for this car segment. Wow! And that is at current production volumes. Once other automakers start introducing EVs, they actually won’t compete with Tesla, instead they will compete with their own ICE vehicles, expanding the size of the EV market even that much more.

They are doubling capacity by July to 5k/mo. I know a lot of us are dying to have the car and want them to scale ASAP, but they are taking their time to pause production on a regular basis, monthly, to address bottlenecks. First bottleneck was battery packs, but that is largely solved and will be enhanced even further when they install the German enhancements, followed by modest ongoing sw improvements. Next, general assembly is the current bottleneck they are working on. Next up after that will be paint. There was some discussion about production speed at burst, vs over a longer time. Tesla might have already proved 5k/wk at burst, but they are still only hitting about 2-3k.

I was entertained to hear Elon comment on the crowd sourced data that already exists showing real time production rates etc, saying this data is available weeks before Tesla makes announcements. And he railed against the capricious nature of the media giving false sound bytes. This really seemed to drive his comments to the analyst who asked about reservation cancel rates. It was a stupid question because any analyst worth his mettle would know that reservations are being delayed only to either wait for AWD or to wait for short range - both coming in July. Honestly, the question seemed intended to bait Elon. Imagine the headlines: “Only 1/3 of reservoirs are actually buying!” This is true but disingenouos, because the orders are not being cancelled, they are deferred and because the total number of backlogs are growing beyond 450k. Finally, this leads to a discussion as to whether Tesla will game US deliveries to hit the 200kth sale on July 1, which seems like a possibility as they ship to Canada, China or to service centers for demo cars. Can’t really Telegraph that. It will be tough because US consumers will not see an effective ramp over the next two months if this is true, but everyone will love an extra quarter of the full 7500 in Q4, especially considering a production level at maximum rate by then. Fingers crossed!

Speaking of China, Model Y will be built in China, with production targeted for May 2020, with both Gigi and Car factory colocated. They are heavily in planning mode now but won’t commit capex until Q3 or Q4. He answered this twice and got tired of the 3rd time this was asked.

He seemed conciliatory at one point, saying how important quarterly metrics were for Wall Street and wants to be laser focused on hitting the Model 3 ramps before asking time on the earnings call to talk about the Semi, but it was exciting to see the progress in the semi reservations (and we have seen them using the semis for battery shipment runs between Reno and Fremont). Cool stuff!

He railed against the day traders, but it was encouraging to get the updates, specifically the shareholder letter.

I am getting more excited about EVs as I follow all these developments. (I might have to buy one!) I will make a game time decision if/when our current car craps out. I might want to rent one on Turo for the next roadtrip(?)

I would think that once the tax incentive is gone, the number is going to drop like a rock.

During my decision making to order or wait for base model, I did a savings estimate for a long trip.
From Atlanta to detroit, for a Model S 100D (Range of 335 miles), the savings given were $96 with 4 stops totaling 145 mins (2 hours 25 mins).
For Model 3 (330 miles), it is showing gas savings of $17 with 5 stops totaling 165 mins (2 hrs 45 mins)

Would that $17 savings be good enough for those like me (love to have the car with rebate but cant afford in a boglehead way of putting 50K)?
Definitely not. I would rather use my highlander for these long drives since i will be paying for the charging.

I would definitely be interested in base model with a 7500 credit and keeping my fingers crossed for the delivery numbers for second qtr.

That’s a great question and hard to say. Numerically it might not be a big deal, but I am really looking for a 2nd set of active eyes when I’m driving on long road trips. Any new car should have all the lane centering and auto adjusting cruise control and various warning sensors. If we get a highlander hybrid, we would get an xle and add those safety features.

During my decision making to order or wait for base model, I did a savings estimate for a long trip.
From Atlanta to detroit, for a Model S 100D (Range of 335 miles), the savings given were $96 with 4 stops totaling 145 mins (2 hours 25 mins).
For Model 3 (330 miles), it is showing gas savings of $17 with 5 stops totaling 165 mins (2 hrs 45 mins)

wait, does this mean the Model S gets better mileage than the 3? That's not what I would expect.

During my decision making to order or wait for base model, I did a savings estimate for a long trip.
From Atlanta to detroit, for a Model S 100D (Range of 335 miles), the savings given were $96 with 4 stops totaling 145 mins (2 hours 25 mins).
For Model 3 (330 miles), it is showing gas savings of $17 with 5 stops totaling 165 mins (2 hrs 45 mins)

wait, does this mean the Model S gets better mileage than the 3? That's not what I would expect.

NO; supercharger is free for S/X owners but needs to be paid for Model 3 charging.

During my decision making to order or wait for base model, I did a savings estimate for a long trip.
From Atlanta to detroit, for a Model S 100D (Range of 335 miles), the savings given were $96 with 4 stops totaling 145 mins (2 hours 25 mins).
For Model 3 (330 miles), it is showing gas savings of $17 with 5 stops totaling 165 mins (2 hrs 45 mins)

wait, does this mean the Model S gets better mileage than the 3? That's not what I would expect.

NO; supercharger is free for S/X owners but needs to be paid for Model 3 charging.

The base Model S that can go 335 miles is $95k though, $88,5k after the tax credit (the base model S goes 259 miles). You can get a fully loaded 3 (including FSD) for $60k, $52,5 after credits. I know the S is a nicer car but how long is it going to take you to make up the extra $36k you're spending? If you waited for a base model, even assuming no credits remain, you're now at about a $50k difference in price.

I thought the interview with Sandy Munro about the Tesla 3 teardown was fascinating. He also discusses robotic assembly, design considerations for such assembly, and where Tesla falls short in design and manufacturing. He credits Tesla with a fabulous "skateboard", i.e. the floorpan, motor, drivetrain, battery, and suspension, electronic circuit boards that are a generation beyond anything in automobiles today, and dings them on design errors (a body that's too heavy but provides no additional structural integrity, an aluminum part that has numerous welded panels that should be simply molded fiberglass), and fit and finish errors that are atrociously bad. All in all, a most interesting hour and thirty minutes on youtube: https://youtu.be/CpCrkO1x-Qo?t=2s . As an aside, he rates the BMW i3 not pretty to look at but probably the highest quality car you can buy today from a design and fit/finish assembly standpoint. Interesting stuff.

And he railed against the capricious nature of the media giving false sound bytes. This really seemed to drive his comments to the analyst who asked about reservation cancel rates. It was a stupid question because any analyst worth his mettle would know that reservations are being delayed only to either wait for AWD or to wait for short range - both coming in July. Honestly, the question seemed intended to bait Elon. Imagine the headlines: “Only 1/3 of reservoirs are actually buying!” This is true but disingenouos, because the orders are not being cancelled, they are deferred and because the total number of backlogs are growing beyond 450k.

And he railed against the capricious nature of the media giving false sound bytes. This really seemed to drive his comments to the analyst who asked about reservation cancel rates. It was a stupid question because any analyst worth his mettle would know that reservations are being delayed only to either wait for AWD or to wait for short range - both coming in July. Honestly, the question seemed intended to bait Elon. Imagine the headlines: “Only 1/3 of reservoirs are actually buying!” This is true but disingenouos, because the orders are not being cancelled, they are deferred and because the total number of backlogs are growing beyond 450k.

And I don’t think neilpilot was the only one, in this thread and otherwise. I will probably cancel my 4/1/2016 reservation in the next few days when we finalize our EV purchase decision.

So I don’t think it was a stupid question. If the number is insignificant, Musk could have just answered it. I am sure they are tracking it.

Neilpilot lives in the Memphis area, which is 200miles from the nearest Tesla service center, which seems to be his #1 or #2 concern. He was clear that he wanted to purchase the stripped down version. So, if anything, he *wants* the car, but just doesn't want to wait for it. I would argue that there is nothing else out in the market like it today. Other EV makers are hurting, so I'm sure he'll get a good deal if he wants to buy something else now. Take alook at market share estimates.

Just about everyone except Honda is seeing big drop-offs from March to April Month-over-Month sales, except Tesla's Model 3. So, there are good deals to be had right now from the other providers.

To answer your other point, the deferral rate is absolutely tracked via crowd sourced information. Here is the config v deferring ratio: 18.7% are deferring and 81.3% are configuring. In fact, you can see the reasons for deferrals. #1 is AWD. #2 & #4 are due to buyers wanting to wait for the $35k version (no options). Both of those will ship in July. This is based on a ~4% sample size of an estimated 450k reservations, and we can assume that Day1 reservers will be more likely to engage in online crowdsharing than Day 2+ online reservers, so your mileage may vary.

The point is, who cares what the cancellation rate is? 450k+ reservations. #1 market share in EVs. 1/3 market share in its segment. Deferrals only because they want a more expensive version or a less expensive version. Really not a lot of cancellations and it doesn't really matter anyway at these numbers.

In my humble opinion, rather than cancelling, I suggest you just leave the deposit there and defer, thereby leaving yourself the optionality of buying if you want later.

One more point that is relevant during the call, it is very clear that Tesla has an advantage in its Supercharger network. This is a roadtrip car. No other car has that. The youtuber called it a "moat" against competition. Elon responded by saying that he would let 3rd party autos use the supercharger network if they paid a proportional cost from it, so thats a nice upside. [ When will Costco install superchargers? :-p ]

You can see a list of new superchargers coming soon here: https://supercharge.info/ and plugshare shows other 3rd party chargers, too.

TravelGeek, what other EV are you considering? I was close to getting an i3 or Bolt in December, but at this point, I've realized I'm in no hurry until the next big repair bill.

One more point that is relevant during the call, it is very clear that Tesla has an advantage in its Supercharger network. This is a roadtrip car. No other car has that.

Gas cars are far superior as roadtrip cars. There's no way I'm stopping for 45 minutes every few hours to recharge my car on a road-trip. And that's assuming there's always a open charger. Half of my road-trips aren't even on super highways. There are zero convenient superchargers on the back-roads on the shortest and quickest path to the lake.

But Tesla is the best roadtrip car of all the other EV cars, sure.

But that's not saying much. Maybe someday.

EVs have huge advantages and huge benefits, but let's not go overboard praising them for things they can't yet do very well. Sure, Telsa will work for some specific road-trips down certain highways for certain people who like to drive long distance casually.

I was early on the list and decided to pass. Early models are riddled with build quality issues. I'll wait until all the kinks are worked out and Tesla has made the complete transition from designer to manufacturer.

One more point that is relevant during the call, it is very clear that Tesla has an advantage in its Supercharger network. This is a roadtrip car. No other car has that.

Gas cars are far superior as roadtrip cars. There's no way I'm stopping for 45 minutes every few hours to recharge my car on a road-trip. And that's assuming there's always a open charger. Half of my road-trips aren't even on super highways. There are zero convenient superchargers on the back-roads on the shortest and quickest path to the lake.

But Tesla is the best roadtrip car of all the other EV cars, sure.

But that's not saying much. Maybe someday.

EVs have huge advantages and huge benefits, but let's not go overboard praising them for things they can't yet do very well. Sure, Telsa will work for some specific road-trips down certain highways for certain people who like to drive long distance casually.

But it's not yet a "road-trip" car.

I shared the two maps, so if those don't fit for your routes, I get it. I wouldn't think twice about heading to Yosemite, Zions, Moab, Yellowstone. I'd need to map out my route if I wanted to hit southeast Oregon or Glacier National Park. Your point about how long it takes to charge is fair, but most people I speak with and from practical experience, I tend to think that we usually spend more time stopping for abreak over and above the amount of time to fill up. Lots of pee breaks, get some coffee, stretch the legs, etc. But I can see where you are coming from and why it might not work for you.

I was early on the list and decided to pass. Early models are riddled with build quality issues. I'll wait until all the kinks are worked out and Tesla has made the complete transition from designer to manufacturer.

For a $60k car, I can understand the concern. I personally want Toyota quality, not BMW quality. So, when they stop production each month to sharpen the pencil, to work out the kinks, I'm glad.

I was early on the list and decided to pass. Early models are riddled with build quality issues. I'll wait until all the kinks are worked out and Tesla has made the complete transition from designer to manufacturer.

For a $60k car, I can understand the concern. I personally want Toyota quality, not BMW quality. So, when they stop production each month to sharpen the pencil, to work out the kinks, I'm glad.

I expect Toyota quality too. I don't think they are close yet. I'll wait until they have perfected their manufacturing process. My wife's brother works up at the NV gigafactory. From what I hear its a work in progress. I love Tesla's cars, great designs. I just think they need to mature as a manufacturing company before I'll drop over 50 grand with them.

I was early on the list and decided to pass. Early models are riddled with build quality issues. I'll wait until all the kinks are worked out and Tesla has made the complete transition from designer to manufacturer.

For a $60k car, I can understand the concern. I personally want Toyota quality, not BMW quality. So, when they stop production each month to sharpen the pencil, to work out the kinks, I'm glad.

I expect Toyota quality too. I don't think they are close yet. I'll wait until they have perfected their manufacturing process. My wife's brother works up at the NV gigafactory. From what I hear its a work in progress. I love Tesla's cars, great designs. I just think they need to mature as a manufacturing company before I'll drop over 50 grand with them.

They just shut down the NV Gigafactory two weeks ago for 3 days or so. Elon mentioned that there was a layer of film on the batteries that was not needed and so they removed it. He said that there will be further improvements once the new German equipment arrives. Well, PM me when your bro-in-law says the coast is clear! hah!

If you listen to many on this thread, it seems the predominant use case is a 600+ mile trip with the pedal to the metal, with a 90 second fuel stop or two along the way. That's not my style of car use, but for those who travel this way, a Tesla is not a good choice.

I am on the East Coast, my BIL is on the West Coast, and we have never had any issues with charging. His employer has chargers at his work parking lot; I have one at home. We find Superchargers as we need them. I don't know what the situation is off the Coasts; perhaps I wouldn't have a Tesla (without an ICE vehicle) if I lived in Montana and wanted to take frequent 500 mile trips.

The question to Elon about how many reservations have been cancelled was absolutely NOT stupid. When reservations were opened and oversubscribed, Tesla touted that as faith in their company. The question was not "how many reservations were deferred?", which would understandably include those who want all wheel drive or a stripped down car. The question was "How many reservations were cancelled?". This would be simple to figure out because it would include the return of the $1k deposit.

Why didn't Musk want to answer the question? Why did it send him off the edge? I would submit that the number of orders cancelled is embarrassingly high. The reasons can be varied. Perhaps some couldn't wait the 3 years to get a car. Some just bought an S. Some did the math and figured out that an Audi S4 was a better option in the long run.

I thought the interview with Sandy Munro about the Tesla 3 teardown was fascinating. He also discusses robotic assembly, design considerations for such assembly, and where Tesla falls short in design and manufacturing. He credits Tesla with a fabulous "skateboard", i.e. the floorpan, motor, drivetrain, battery, and suspension, electronic circuit boards that are a generation beyond anything in automobiles today, and dings them on design errors (a body that's too heavy but provides no additional structural integrity, an aluminum part that has numerous welded panels that should be simply molded fiberglass), and fit and finish errors that are atrociously bad. All in all, a most interesting hour and thirty minutes on youtube: https://youtu.be/CpCrkO1x-Qo?t=2s . As an aside, he rates the BMW i3 not pretty to look at but probably the highest quality car you can buy today from a design and fit/finish assembly standpoint. Interesting stuff.

If you are serious in above posting, please read the review of BMW i3 done by Doug Demuro which came out day before yesterday. He shows you the "quality" of i3 panel gaps. Please come back here and then tell us if you still agree with Sandy Munro's assertion of i3 having the highest quality. I wil not even get in to how Sandy Munro gets paid and who provides for his living. Hint: Tesla did NOT but BMW DID.

A behavioral scientist could have a field day studying the information in this thread.

Appeal to Pity:When pity is envoked to support a statement |
Appeal to Popular Sentiment:Appealing to unrelated prejudices and attitudes |
Hasty Generalization:Too little evidence to support the conclusion

If you are serious in above posting, please read the review of BMW i3 done by Doug Demuro which came out day before yesterday. He shows you the "quality" of i3 panel gaps. Please come back here and then tell us if you still agree with Sandy Munro's assertion of i3 having the highest quality. I wil not even get in to how Sandy Munro gets paid and who provides for his living. Hint: Tesla did NOT but BMW DID.

A "serious" person wouldn't compare a Doug Demuro toss off youtube video of a 4-5 year old in-service car to a full tear down of a pristine car by an engineering firm that specializes in that stuff. You are joking right? Moreover, Demuro even admitted that the gap he was discussing was purposeful. That i3 "gap" is a design element (that is matching on both sides of the car) and far different from door gaps being wide or different from door to door etc. Laughably, the body panel/part he is pushing on and claims feels cheap is designed that way purposefully and one of the interesting things about an i3. It has plastic thermoplast cladding that doesn't rust or dent easily. Perfect for city commuting.

I just cancelled my reservation. When I made the reservation on 4/1/16 (April Fools' Day) the M3 was expected to replace my DW's 2002 C240 no later than 1st quarter 2018, and we expected to want few if any options above the base model. I cancelled for the obvious reasons:

don't want a M3 with $12-14k of unwanted options
looking likely that the Fed rebate will be smaller or zero in a year, and don't want to wait & see
the 2002 C240 runs fine but is a bit ragged, and DW doesn't not want to drive it another year
I've decided I don't want to take the chance on having to adapt to an EV with little local support

So now we plan to look for a late model used BMW 5-series or MB E-class.

Followup to above post.....for those that have reported up to a 1 month wait in receiving their $1k refund, Tesla deposited the refund into my checking account less than 24 hours after requested. If only they had been able to deliver my M3 in a timely fashion, I'd be driving a Tesla now....

Neilpilot lives in the Memphis area, which is 200miles from the nearest Tesla service center, which seems to be his #1 or #2 concern. He was clear that he wanted to purchase the stripped down version. So, if anything, he *wants* the car, but just doesn't want to wait for it.

...

To answer your other point, the deferral rate is absolutely tracked via crowd sourced information. Here is the config v deferring ratio: 18.7% are deferring and 81.3% are configuring. In fact, you can see the reasons for deferrals. #1 is AWD. #2 & #4 are due to buyers wanting to wait for the $35k version (no options). Both of those will ship in July. This is based on a ~4% sample size of an estimated 450k reservations, and we can assume that Day1 reservers will be more likely to engage in online crowdsharing than Day 2+ online reservers, so your mileage may vary.

It doesn’t really matter why neilpilot or I cancel. The question as I understand it was simply how many cancel. I also don’t know if neilpilot included his information in the crowdsourcing; I personally wasn’t aware of this activity and wouldn’t have (now might).

The point is, who cares what the cancellation rate is?

The analyst who asked the question, apparently. I continue to think it is a reasonable question to ask and could be answered politely.

In my humble opinion, rather than cancelling, I suggest you just leave the deposit there and defer, thereby leaving yourself the optionality of buying if you want later.

Once I buy or more likely lease another vehicle, I won’t be in the market again for a while.

One more point that is relevant during the call, it is very clear that Tesla has an advantage in its Supercharger network. This is a roadtrip car. No other car has that.

I agree with that.

But as mentioned upthread, our 2nd vehicle is a 2 year old Subaru Forester and a perfectly suitable road trip vehicle. In fact, I would argue that for our specific needs it is a better road trip vehicle than the Tesla.

Here is an example of an upcoming road trip I am planning. Eugene, OR to Boise, ID. With my Subaru I will drive the straight line through central Oregon (Bend, Burns). The Tesla would apparently send me on a nice detour because the distance between the Bend supercharger and Boise exceeds the range of the Model 3.

And I would apparently save $13 on that trip using a Tesla. I wonder if that calculation uses the same route for the Tesla and ICE vehicle; the more direct route is a lot shorter.

Obviously, if and when Tesla puts a supercharger into Burns OR, this route example would change. I am honestly amazed by their build-out of the supercharger network and look forward to its further expansion.

But I also wouldn’t have the long distance Tesla (I don’t want to pay thousands of dollars for a larger battery at this time), so more stops, more restrictions on direct routing and reduced savings compared to ICE vehicles.

TravelGeek, what other EV are you considering? I was close to getting an i3 or Bolt in December, but at this point, I've realized I'm in no hurry until the next big repair bill.

I am looking at the 2018 LEAF. As explained in earlier messages, I think at this time it meets our needs better than the Tesla. I realize and want to point out that our location and our needs are different from others here, so a better choice for us isn’t necessarily the right choice for others. If we still lived in the Bay Area, the Model 3 would likely replace our Prius and there would be no Forester in the garage.

Last edited by TravelGeek on Fri May 04, 2018 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

This sounds a lot like Elon's recent temper tantrum. I doubt that analysts will drop it. The Shelby 427 Cobra was oversubscribed until it wasn't. Then it sat with no buyers because it was too expensive for what it was vs the competition. The result was that 1966 model year cars were returned to the factory and re-issued as 1967 cars (no new cars were started in 1967)....most as S/C cars. Then they went out of business.

This sounds a lot like Elon's recent temper tantrum. I doubt that analysts will drop it. The Shelby 427 Cobra was oversubscribed until it wasn't. Then it sat with no buyers because it was too expensive for what it was vs the competition. The result was that 1966 model year cars were returned to the factory and re-issued as 1967 cars (no new cars were started in 1967)....most as S/C cars. Then they went out of business.

Today, they are making 2-3k/wk with a 450k backlog, deferrals are for the less expensive version or the even more expensive version. (True cancellations seem to be about not being able to wait an extra 6 months. )

At 3k/week, that’s 2.8 years of backlog

At 5k/week, that’s 1.7 years of backlog

At 10k/week, that’s 10 months of backlog

From everything I’ve read about investing, you value a stock by taking net present value of cash flows.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

Neilpilot lives in the Memphis area, which is 200miles from the nearest Tesla service center, which seems to be his #1 or #2 concern. He was clear that he wanted to purchase the stripped down version. So, if anything, he *wants* the car, but just doesn't want to wait for it.

...

To answer your other point, the deferral rate is absolutely tracked via crowd sourced information. Here is the config v deferring ratio: 18.7% are deferring and 81.3% are configuring. In fact, you can see the reasons for deferrals. #1 is AWD. #2 & #4 are due to buyers wanting to wait for the $35k version (no options). Both of those will ship in July. This is based on a ~4% sample size of an estimated 450k reservations, and we can assume that Day1 reservers will be more likely to engage in online crowdsharing than Day 2+ online reservers, so your mileage may vary.

It doesn’t really matter why neilpilot or I cancel. The question as I understand it was simply how many cancel. I also don’t know if neilpilot included his information in the crowdsourcing; I personally wasn’t aware of this activity and wouldn’t have (now might).

The point is, who cares what the cancellation rate is?

The analyst who asked the question, apparently. I continue to think it is a reasonable question to ask and could be answered politely.

In my humble opinion, rather than cancelling, I suggest you just leave the deposit there and defer, thereby leaving yourself the optionality of buying if you want later.

Once I buy or more likely lease another vehicle, I won’t be in the market again for a while.

One more point that is relevant during the call, it is very clear that Tesla has an advantage in its Supercharger network. This is a roadtrip car. No other car has that.

I agree with that.

But as mentioned upthread, our 2nd vehicle is a 2 year old Subaru Forester and a perfectly suitable road trip vehicle. In fact, I would argue that for our specific needs it is a better road trip vehicle than the Tesla.

Here is an example of an upcoming road trip I am planning. Eugene, OR to Boise, ID. With my Subaru I will drive the straight line through central Oregon (Bend, Burns). The Tesla would apparently send me on a nice detour because the distance between the Bend supercharger and Boise exceeds the range of the Model 3.

And I would apparently save $13 on that trip using a Tesla. I wonder if that calculation uses the same route for the Tesla and ICE vehicle; the more direct route is a lot shorter.

Obviously, if and when Tesla puts a supercharger into Burns OR, this route example would change. I am honestly amazed by their build-out of the supercharger network and look forward to its further expansion.

But I also wouldn’t have the long distance Tesla (I don’t want to pay thousands of dollars for a larger battery at this time), so more stops, more restrictions on direct routing and reduced savings compared to ICE vehicles.

TravelGeek, what other EV are you considering? I was close to getting an i3 or Bolt in December, but at this point, I've realized I'm in no hurry until the next big repair bill.

I am looking at the 2018 LEAF. As explained in earlier messages, I think at this time it meets our needs better than the Tesla. I realize and want to point out that our location and our needs are different from others here, so a better choice for us isn’t necessarily the right choice for others. If we still lived in the Bay Area, the Model 3 would likely replace our Prius and there would be no Forester in the garage.

Thanks for sharing the trip planning URL. It shows a 10hr trio vs a straight through of about 5hrs. In fact, it seemed like a 312 mile trip which is just about maximum range requiring no stops. Not sure if I’m reading that right. But range anxiety due would be a real factor and warrant at least a nominal stop.

You can try playing with evtripplanner or plugshare. Certainly a nice stop along the way with a plug would help tremendously, even at a regular charger (not super charger). One would always need to find hotels with at least 110v outlets.

But I get it, it is not a road trip car for some. Or it complements having another road trip vehicle. We certainly would consider a highlander hybrid for road trips

Today, they are making 2-3k/wk with a 450k backlog, deferrals are for the less expensive version or the even more expensive version. (True cancellations seem to be about not being able to wait an extra 6 months. )

I cancelled because, on 2/8/18, Tesla's delivery outlook was for "early 2019". Based on how they have previously outlooked, I judged my wait to likely be in excess of 12 months. Certainly not 6 months, even if they actually delivered on their outlook.

Today, they are making 2-3k/wk with a 450k backlog, deferrals are for the less expensive version or the even more expensive version. (True cancellations seem to be about not being able to wait an extra 6 months. )

I cancelled because, on 2/8/18, Tesla's delivery outlook was for "early 2019". Based on how they have previously outlooked, I judged my wait to likely be in excess of 12 months. Certainly not 6 months, even if they actually delivered on their outlook.

I’m not trying to be judgemental. If you need a car now, you need t now. In my case, I can wait. I have friends are a couple months away and are looking for ways to extend their current leases or do short term leases or lease swaps. All that is a pain and at some point you just pull the trigger on whatever works for you.

Today, they are making 2-3k/wk with a 450k backlog, deferrals are for the less expensive version or the even more expensive version. (True cancellations seem to be about not being able to wait an extra 6 months. )

I cancelled because, on 2/8/18, Tesla's delivery outlook was for "early 2019". Based on how they have previously outlooked, I judged my wait to likely be in excess of 12 months. Certainly not 6 months, even if they actually delivered on their outlook.

I’m not trying to be judgemental. If you need a car now, you need t now. In my case, I can wait. I have friends are a couple months away and are looking for ways to extend their current leases or do short term leases or lease swaps. All that is a pain and at some point you just pull the trigger on whatever works for you.

Simply pointing out that your "wait an extra 6 months" is highly optimistic, even unrealistic, for most of the early reservation holders who plan to hold out for the elusive $35k M3.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

Ah, we have gone from making fun of the shorts to blaming them. Good indicator of what comes next.

Perhaps Elon should try answering questions about capital needs and take rates on Tesla's signature product. Why did Elon take Tesla public if he didn’t want scrutiny from... the public?

A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

This sounds a lot like Elon's recent temper tantrum. I doubt that analysts will drop it. The Shelby 427 Cobra was oversubscribed until it wasn't. Then it sat with no buyers because it was too expensive for what it was vs the competition. The result was that 1966 model year cars were returned to the factory and re-issued as 1967 cars (no new cars were started in 1967)....most as S/C cars. Then they went out of business.

Today, they are making 2-3k/wk with a 450k backlog, deferrals are for the less expensive version or the even more expensive version. (True cancellations seem to be about not being able to wait an extra 6 months. )

At 3k/week, that’s 2.8 years of backlog

At 5k/week, that’s 1.7 years of backlog

At 10k/week, that’s 10 months of backlog

From everything I’ve read about investing, you value a stock by taking net present value of cash flows.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

Not to mention that the current market is that 3's are selling anywhere from $1k-4K over retail, and that's with the 2nd buyer NOT getting the tax credit. Basically, people are paying double taxes (theirs plus the original buyer) and foregoing the tax credit. That market has slowed some, as have the number of 3's that I see available, but it will be a while before Tesla has a demand problem.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

Ah, we have gone from making fun of the shorts to blaming them. Good indicator of what comes next.

Perhaps Elon should try answering questions about capital needs and take rates on Tesla's signature product. Why did Elon take Tesla public if he didn’t want scrutiny from... the public?

Admittedly, he could have answered, “Right now we are supply constrained, and are working diligently to scale production. Next question”. Again, I do think it’s a trap question answered any other way. Elon called him on it. I did hear Elon answer capital requirements questions twice. Answers as clear as any earnings call before a big announcement.

Last edited by FoolStreet on Fri May 04, 2018 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

Not to mention that the current market is that 3's are selling anywhere from $1k-4K over retail, and that's with the 2nd buyer NOT getting the tax credit. Basically, people are paying double taxes (theirs plus the original buyer) and foregoing the tax credit. That market has slowed some, as have the number of 3's that I see available, but it will be a while before Tesla has a demand problem.

If there is such a demand for someone to buy my model 3, they can contact me to select the options to design.

Gas cars are far superior as roadtrip cars. There's no way I'm stopping for 45 minutes every few hours to recharge my car on a road-trip. And that's assuming there's always a open charger. Half of my road-trips aren't even on super highways. There are zero convenient superchargers on the back-roads on the shortest and quickest path to the lake.

I don't really care about needing to stop on occasion to charge. My Model S maximum range is around 300 miles. But the practical range is around 250 miles. At 70 mph that is good for 3+ hours. After that time I want to take a break. The superchargers are normally placed near spots with multiple food choices.

I fully expect that battery technology will improve quickly. If that happens my next EV may well be a 500+ mile car (probably in 5+ years) with even faster charging then today. The Tesla supercharges charge at 120 KW. The newer chargers being planned are at 350 KW hours. That is nearly 3 times the power. But that is peak power and batteries do not charge at peak power throughout. But, if it can charge in 1/2 the time that would be nice, but not that useful. Why? At least for me the charging mostly occurs in my garage over night. Each morning I have a full battery.

Last edited by Leif on Fri May 04, 2018 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

I thought the interview with Sandy Munro about the Tesla 3 teardown was fascinating. He also discusses robotic assembly, design considerations for such assembly, and where Tesla falls short in design and manufacturing. He credits Tesla with a fabulous "skateboard", i.e. the floorpan, motor, drivetrain, battery, and suspension, electronic circuit boards that are a generation beyond anything in automobiles today, and dings them on design errors (a body that's too heavy but provides no additional structural integrity, an aluminum part that has numerous welded panels that should be simply molded fiberglass), and fit and finish errors that are atrociously bad. All in all, a most interesting hour and thirty minutes on youtube: https://youtu.be/CpCrkO1x-Qo?t=2s . As an aside, he rates the BMW i3 not pretty to look at but probably the highest quality car you can buy today from a design and fit/finish assembly standpoint. Interesting stuff.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

If you (they) use the huge number of pre-orders as a marketing tool for your company, you should also be prepared to answer questions about it. And if the cancellation rate is really tiny, then that answer is easy and painless and should not give anyone fodder for flaming Tesla. By NOT answering the question, especially in a snotty way, you (Elon) do give critics fodder.

The fact that they are currently capacity constrained and cannot deliver pre-orders as quickly as they thought and their prospective customers hoped is a completely separate issue and presumably not in dispute.

If you (they) use the huge number of pre-orders as a marketing tool for your company, you should also be prepared to answer questions about it. And if the cancellation rate is really tiny, then that answer is easy and painless and should not give anyone fodder for flaming Tesla. By NOT answering the question, especially in a snotty way, you (Elon) do give critics fodder.

The fact that they are currently capacity constrained and cannot deliver pre-orders as quickly as they thought and their prospective customers hoped is a completely separate issue and presumably not in dispute.

I agree. The analyst job is to make projections. Part of that process is to determine the real demand for the product. That has an impact once they are no longer production constrained. It was not a good look for Elon and Tesla. Their stock took a hit. Elon is an amazing guy. But, hopefully they (Tesla/Elon) learned something.

Secondly, here's how Musk responded on Twitter re: blowing off the analysts' questions:

First, it's important to know that Tesla is the most shorted stock on the market and has been for a while.

The two questions I ignored on the Q1 call are sell-side analysts who represent a short seller thesis, not investors.

The reason the Bernstein question about CapEx was boneheaded was that it had already been answered in the headline of the Q1 newsletter he received beforehand, along with details in the body of the letter.

Reason RBC question about Model 3 demand is absurd is that Tesla has roughly half a million reservations, despite no advertising and no cars in showrooms. Even after reaching 5K/week production, it would take two years just to satisfy existing demand even if new sales dropped to zero.

Thirdly, you can see a map here showing existing and planned Supercharger stations:https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
If you prefer driving for ten hours straight on your road trips, which is a great way to get deep vein thrombosis, a Tesla is not yet for you. If taking a break after every three or four hours of driving is more your speed, you'll have no problem at all taking road trips in a long-range Model 3.

Finally, I actually own a Model 3 and my wife and I are absolutely thrilled with it. That's also been the reaction of everyone who's ridden along with us.

I just don’t see how the analyst’s question can do anything but be used to flame Tesla. It is not constructive. At best, it shows the analyst hasn’t done his homework and hasn’t thought about how the answer will help him model cash flows. At worst, it is pejorative.

If you (they) use the huge number of pre-orders as a marketing tool for your company, you should also be prepared to answer questions about it. And if the cancellation rate is really tiny, then that answer is easy and painless and should not give anyone fodder for flaming Tesla. By NOT answering the question, especially in a snotty way, you (Elon) do give critics fodder.

The fact that they are currently capacity constrained and cannot deliver pre-orders as quickly as they thought and their prospective customers hoped is a completely separate issue and presumably not in dispute.

Ha ha. The point is that Tesla has not done any marketing. What I am really looking for is when Any of the other automakers do marketing. When GM says, come check out our Bolt, I think it will hurt GM more than others. And Bolt is a good car! Ford has even conceded the sedan market.

But the best example of answering a no win question, is if you asked your husband, “how fat do these jeans make my butt look?”

“Oh, don’t worry, honey, only a little. Not enough to make a big difference. I love you no matter how fat your butt looks in those jeans!” LOL

Not to mention that the current market is that 3's are selling anywhere from $1k-4K over retail, and that's with the 2nd buyer NOT getting the tax credit. Basically, people are paying double taxes (theirs plus the original buyer) and foregoing the tax credit. That market has slowed some, as have the number of 3's that I see available, but it will be a while before Tesla has a demand problem.

If there is such a demand for someone to buy my model 3, they can contact me to select the options to design.

Then put it up for sale. It's a complex process if you're only selling your reservation. You're not supposed to do this but A LOT of people are. Personally, I wouldn't give anyone access to my Tesla account, which is what you have to do. The reservations are only going for about $1k-2k, so the person you're selling the reservation to would get the tax credit.

Secondly, here's how Musk responded on Twitter re: blowing off the analysts' questions:

First, it's important to know that Tesla is the most shorted stock on the market and has been for a while.

The two questions I ignored on the Q1 call are sell-side analysts who represent a short seller thesis, not investors.

The reason the Bernstein question about CapEx was boneheaded was that it had already been answered in the headline of the Q1 newsletter he received beforehand, along with details in the body of the letter.

Reason RBC question about Model 3 demand is absurd is that Tesla has roughly half a million reservations, despite no advertising and no cars in showrooms. Even after reaching 5K/week production, it would take two years just to satisfy existing demand even if new sales dropped to zero.

Thirdly, you can see a map here showing existing and planned Supercharger stations:https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
If you prefer driving for ten hours straight on your road trips, which is a great way to get deep vein thrombosis, a Tesla is not yet for you. If taking a break after every three or four hours of driving is more your speed, you'll have no problem at all taking road trips in a long-range Model 3.

Finally, I actually own a Model 3 and my wife and I are absolutely thrilled with it. That's also been the reaction of everyone who's ridden along with us.

Strummer, great stuff. I had not realized Elon responded and I totally see where he's coming from.

I had a question about roadtrips.... I am enthusiastic about going on roadtrips and have 2 questions:

1. Have you used plugshare to route. It seems like there are a ton of plugs all over the place. Lots of NEMA 14-50s at RV spots, for example. Do you know how fast they charge and/or do you have any real world examples? In a previous post, I expressed concern about roadtripping to Glacier National Park, but looking on plugshare, there are a ton right along the route. Nice place to stop for dinner while charging. And I have to believe there will be an explosion of new chargers (Tesla branded vs just regular old plugs) all over the place in the next 6-18mo.

2. My hypothesis is that having EAP would give me a 2nd set of eyes while on long road trips where there is just a lot of long monotonous highway miles. Real world experience? I am hearing it gets better every few months, so I'm hoping it will be really useful by the end of the year.

This sounds a lot like Elon's recent temper tantrum. I doubt that analysts will drop it. The Shelby 427 Cobra was oversubscribed until it wasn't. Then it sat with no buyers because it was too expensive for what it was vs the competition. The result was that 1966 model year cars were returned to the factory and re-issued as 1967 cars (no new cars were started in 1967)....most as S/C cars. Then they went out of business.

OK; let us get to the bottom of this one.

1) Are you on the waiting list to purchase M3?
2) Are you TSLA stock holder?
3) Have you shorted TSLA?
4) Do you know much 1966 mint Shelby 427 Cobra will go for today?
5) You really are keeping straight face and telling me that Tesla will have trouble selling their meager model 3 output but at the same time berating them because they are not making them fast enough?
6) OH REALLY?

1. Have you used plugshare to route. It seems like there are a ton of plugs all over the place. Lots of NEMA 14-50s at RV spots, for example. Do you know how fast they charge and/or do you have any real world examples?
In a previous post, I expressed concern about roadtripping to Glacier National Park, but looking on plugshare, there are a ton right along the route. Nice place to stop for dinner while charging.

Better eat often and/or slowly. NEMA 14-50 will apparently get you about 30 miles per hour.

Incidentally I just had such an outlet installed in my garage a few days ago (the 40 amp circuit had been there since we built the house a few years ago, in anticipation of an EV occupant for the parking spot).

And I have to believe there will be an explosion of new chargers (Tesla branded vs just regular old plugs) all over the place in the next 6-18mo.

Absolutely, but hopefully faster chargers than level 2 (like NEMA 14-50 above), which are great for overnight charging at at home, but not really suitable for quick road trip refills. More hotel chargers (even just level 2) would be good, too. Somewhere upthread someone mentioned the $$$ that VW has to plow into charging infrastructure. I’d also be happy to pay Tesla for juice at Superchargers with a non-Tesla vehicle.