Texas Primary Primer

Texas is the first state to hold 2006 primaries today, kicking off a series of intraparty contests between now and late September.

While Rep. Tom DeLay's (R) legal troubles and battle for a 12th term have dominated the political landscape for much of the last six months, there are three other Texas races of import that could well be decided today: the fight for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination and congressional primaries in the 17th and 28th congressional districts.

The polls in Texas close at 8 p.m. ET tonight. Tune into The Fix this evening for results and additional analysis. Here are the races to watch:

* Democratic Gubernatorial Primary:

This contest pits youth against experience, as two former members of Congress seek the chance to challenge Gov. Rick Perry (R) in November. Bob Gammage, 67, has a long history in elected politics including stints in the Texas state House and Senate as well as the U.S. House and the Texas Supreme Court. Chris Bell, 46, has a shorter resume, having been elected to a single term in the U.S. House in 2002 before losing a Democratic primary in a vastly redrawn seat to now Rep. Al Green in 2004. Gammage jumped into the contest late last year, but Bell has held a financial edge throughout -- although neither man's fundraising comes close to the massive stash collected by Perry ($9.4 million on hand, according to reports filed at the end of last month.)

Because of Perry's massive financial edge and the Republican nature of the state, the governor will start off the general election with a clear edge over the Democratic nominee. This race could be one of the most entertaining in the country, however, assuming state Comptroller Caroline Keeton Strayhorn and musician and author Kinky Friedman qualify for the general election ballot as independents. Each needs to collect more than 45,00 signatures from people who do not vote in today's primaries to qualify.

If both make the general-election ballot, a four-way free-for-all would ensue. A recent independent poll had Perry at 36 percent, Bell at 19 percent, Strayhorn at 16 percent and Friedman at 10 percent. If Gammage is the Democratic nominee, the survey said he would take 17 percent to Perry's 36 percent, Strayhorn's 17 percent and Friedman's 10 percent.

The Republican primary between Iraq war veteran Van Taylor, the chosen candidate of much of the party establishment, and former congressional staffer Tucker Anderson has grown increasingly testy of late as both sides bash each other on the television airwaves. Gov. Perry waded into the fray with an automated phone call to district voters on Taylor's behalf recently, and Rep. Pete Sessions (R) did the same for Anderson, who spent several years on the congressman's staff. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) has also stumped for Taylor. Sessions is one of three candidates seeking to replace Reynolds as NRCC chairman after the 2006 election, a situation that makes his willingness to work actively on the other side of both Perry and Reynolds intriguing.

Rep. Chet Edwards, the only Democrat targeted by Texas Republicans in their 2003 redistricting plan to win in November 2004, has spent most of his time raising campaign cash. As of Feb. 15 he had $943,000 on hand. Nonetheless, Edwards's seat will be one of the toughest holds for Democrats in November as it gave President Bush 70 percent of the vote in 2004. But if Edwards was able to win in a year when a president from Texas was carrying the seat so convincingly, he would seem to have a slight edge in a midterm election with a dramatically less popular president.

This race needs no introduction. Tom DeLay faces three challengers in today's primary -- Tom Campbell, Pat Baig and Mike Fjetland. Campbell is the most serious of the three, having raised enough money to finance campaign commercials questioning DeLay's integrity. DeLay has run a decidedly low-key primary, micro-targeting conservatives most likely to turn out today and staying off the radio and television airwaves.

National Republicans expressed confidence Monday that DeLay would win the primary with better than 50 percent of the vote and, in doing so, avoid an April 11 runoff against the next highest GOP vote-getter. Democrats were privately rooting for DeLay as well, as they believe that without DeLay on the ballot it is much more difficult for them to win this strongly Republican district in the fall. Democrats are set to nominate former Rep. Nick Lampson as their nominee. The X-factor remains former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who is planning to run as an independent in the fall. (For more on this contest, make sure to check out the story Sylvia Moreno and I wrote over the weekend.)

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) are staging a rematch of their 2004 primary race that saw Cuellar defeat Rodriguez, who at that point was the incumbent, by 58 votes after two recounts and a lawsuit questioning the results. Rodriguez immediately announced that he would run again. State Rep. Richard Raymond was also a candidate in the Democratic primary but bowed out last December. School teacher Victor Morales, who was the Democrats' surprise Senate nominee against Phil Gramm (R) in 1996, is also running for the Democratic nod.

Little has changed in the dynamics of the 28th District race from two years ago. Cuellar hopes to again use his base in Webb County (Laredo) to overcome Rodriguez's wide margin in Bexar County (San Antonio). And, again, Cuellar is attacking Rodriguez as a do-nothing member during his eight years in Congress while Rodriguez is painting Cuellar as a wolf in sheep's clothing for his alleged close ties to Republicans. The grumbles among Democrats about Cuellar's GOP ties grew louder when a picture made the rounds of the Internet that showed President George W. Bush embracing Cuellar on the night of this year's State of the Union address. Cuellar also was the first Democrat to be supported by the Club For Growth, a group known for backing particularly conservative Republican candidates across the nation. Nonetheless, Cuellar appears to be a slight favorite at the moment.

Morales could complicate the race by keeping either Cuellar or Rodriguez from cresting the 50 percent mark. If that scenario comes to pass, the two men would compete in an April 11 runoff. No matter how bloody the primary and/or runoff becomes, Democrats will hold it in the fall. No Republican even bothered to file in this district.

Bobby Wightman-Cevantes needs to step up to the plate and fight within Texas.

Perry is a copy of Bush with nothing but a show for the media to deceive the people.

We will continue with high gas & food prices, while people are losing their homes on the variable rate promise of having the American Dream.

Everyone needs to get off their back sides
because the crooks will be taking all of our and the little bit of money everyone has left. This will become like the so called Democracy in Cuba, the rich, the poor and the poorer. Look at Louisana and that is what the White House and the Republicans think of the American people.

Gas is $3.00 per gallon when people are using waste paper baskets as a toliet, children are hungry and most people can't afford a house or a car. Wake up America and smell the coffee, because if the Republican rich have it their way, you won't even have coffee or anything else.

VP says he won't run. This may be the biggest surprise yet.

Start making the Churches pay taxes and that would fund education and aid the poor.

Everyone forgets about the poor!

We get what we deserve and we will have had 8 years of a fool making all the wrong decisions thanks to the conservative religious, who don't care about the porest of the poor. Open your eyes and look around, turn on the news and see the condition of the world and it was Bush that started the fighting. He claims that no one should be killing innocent people. That is what he did isn't?

Bobby Wightman-Cevantes needs to step up to the plate and fight within Texas.

Perry is a copy of Bush with nothing but a show for the media to deceive the people.

We will continue with high gas & food prices, while people are losing their homes on the variable rate promise of having the American Dream.

Everyone needs to get off their back sides
because the crooks will be taking all of our and the little bit of money everyone has left. This will become like the so called Democracy in Cuba, the rich, the poor and the poorer. Look at Louisana and that is what the White House and the Republicans think of the American people.

Gas is $3.00 per gallon when people are using waste paper baskets as a toliet, children are hungry and most people can't afford a house or a car. Wake up America and smell the coffee, because if the Republican rich have it their way, you won't even have coffee or anything else.

VP says he won't run. This may be the biggest surprise yet.

Start making the Churches pay taxes and that would fund education and aid the poor.

Everyone forgets about the poor!

We get what we deserve and we will have had 8 years of a fool making all the wrong decisions thanks to the conservative religious, who don't care about the porest of the poor. Open your eyes and look around, turn on the news and see the condition of the world and it was Bush that started the fighting. He claims that no one should be killing innocent people. That is what he did isn't?

Bobby Wightman-Cevantes needs to step up to the plate and fight within Texas.

Perry is a copy of Bush with nothing but a show for the media to deceive the people.

We will continue with high gas & food prices, while people are losing their homes on the variable rate promise of having the American Dream.

Everyone needs to get off their back sides
because the crooks will be taking all of our and the little bit of money everyone has left. This will become like the so called Democracy in Cuba, the rich, the poor and the poorer. Look at Louisana and that is what the White House and the Republicans think of the American people.

Gas is $3.00 per gallon when people are using waste paper baskets as a toliet, children are hungry and most people can't afford a house or a car. Wake up America and smell the coffee, because if the Republican rich have it their way, you won't even have coffee or anything else.

VP says he won't run. This may be the biggest surprise yet.

Start making the Churches pay taxes and that would fund education and aid the poor.

Everyone forgets about the poor!

We get what we deserve and we will have had 8 years of a fool making all the wrong decisions thanks to the conservative religious, who don't care about the porest of the poor. Open your eyes and look around, turn on the news and see the condition of the world and it was Bush that started the fighting. He claims that no one should be killing innocent people. That is what he did isn't?

I agree that the Texas governors race is an important one. Republicans are not republicans anymore. They dont vote like republicans and they dont put in place legislation like republicans. Texas is the only place were illegals increased! Perry asks for help. I will give you some help. Read the laws comming from colorado, georgia and the mayor of hazleton PA. You dont need the feds if you will stop giving illegals so may benefits!

For you non-Texans, Perry was once taped saying Adios MOFO. I am telling you that in November, the texas will say that to you!

JPS health network, a county hospital in fort worth texas delivers 70% of its babies from illegals (fort worth star telegram). The hospital delivers about 5-6000 babies a year. The county residents pay for the delivery and the care of the siblings who are illegal at their school based clinics while homeless transient people are turned down.

Texans are fed up with Rick Perry. He has done nothing about illegal immigration except come up with a "plan". Its too late for plans, we need action. He put in millions into a victim assistance program which is used by illegals the majority of the time.

Kinky is an interesting hollywood type character but he wont win. THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN TEXAS IS IMMIGRATION. Kinky doesnt list illegal immigration as one of his top 10 reasons on why you should vote for him on his website. He does however list smoking a cigar as a good reason. I am sure the tobacco company will love him.

Carolyn Strayhorn is the only candidate tough on immigration. Go to her "news" section and you will read her bashing Perry.

There is not a chance that Bell will win. 40% of hispanics vote Democrats but there will be too many people voting this time.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes,
I say your full name b/c everyone knows how you burned Barbara for not doing the same. That said, the reason money is going to Barbara instead of Bell is simply credentials. Bell is what the democratic party refers to as a "perennial candidate" not too far removed from the likes of Gene Kelly, who is running for the 10th time for Senate. Also, as a personality Bell is not what you'd consider a "heavyweight." Basically, he don't got it. I'm a dem and i'd rather have bell than perry any day. But I'd rather have Radnofsky than Bell anyday, b/c i'm tired of settling for hum-drum perrenial democratic candidates. Barbara often holds a 30 minute q and a session after her speeches. Do you know why Bell doesn't do this? He's lost w/o the speech notes. Like I said, I will be casting my vote for Bell in the general as I did for him yesterday, but I'm not sending a check and would advise others to think carefully about it too.

My wife and I laugh at the frequency with which athletes start their discussions of what it will take to win by saying, "We have to go out there and..." But they're right--showing up IS a prerequisite. That's why I agree with Mr. Wightman-Cervantes about the importance of the Governor's race. Against an unpopular and inadequate Rick Perry, we can't settle for anything less than an all-out effort, unless we're willing to settle for permanent Red State status for Texas and I am not.
Let's not worry so much about handicapping; let's decide whose side we're on. Thirty-four years later, I don't regret an hour or a dollar I spent on George McGovern. Booting Rick Perry out of the Governor's mansion is the right thing to do; that's all the information we should need.

Some commentators indicated that the Suprme Court was prepared to accept the idea of Texas redistricting every two years - in the first redistricting after 2000 the Repubs thought they did it right -they did not pick up as many seats as they had thought they would so they redistricted a second time - the US Supreme Court could allow them to redistrict a third time which gives them even more seats - this is the danger of Perry winning.

All races are important - I understand that a Dem win in Texas is a long shot and that most people have rightfully written off Texas - that does not mean we should not try and hold our ground and fight back - as you pointed out Red states with Dems as govenors - it is possible -

we will not know until September how the Strayhorn factor will play in the race - the abortion question could hurt both Perry and Strayhorn - Strayhorn needs to come out as a moderate on abortion or loss a large number of the swing vote in Texas -if Perry is forced to support the abortion laws in South Dakota he could lose moderate Repubs., and independents - there is a formula wherein Chris Bell could win -also Chris Bell has promised to introduce legislation calling for a non-partitian commission on redistricting.

As Governor only Bell can call for a special session - so if the Dems can hold up redistricting during the regular session then there will be no redistricting unless Bell calls for the session - remember our state legislature only meets for 120 days every two years unless there is a special session called for by the governor

anyway, Ohio thanks for the exchange - it's what makes these type forums so great - don't write off Texas yet - Texas politics can be like Texas weather - if you do not like it wait a minute and it will change - kind of like Republican values -

you know Republicans who are pro religion and anti-big government until churches start to accept gay marriages and then they oppose churches deciding when a marriage is valid in favor of big government deciding when a marriage is valid

1)"A dem in the TExas Govenor's house means 3-8 new Democratic Seats in the United States HOuse of Representatives"
Wow. Please explain to me how this is true. Before the redistricting (when the lines were gerrymandered by democrats)democrats had 17 reps from texas, you're saying we could have 19 if texas had a dem governor? Give me a break, that is wildly optimistic. Also, dosen't the governor only have partial control over the STATE legislative districts? So even if a dem won the texas governorship, it would be at least 4-6 years before dems could redraw the congressional districts. Winning the gov's race would have almost no effect on 2008 at all. Also, you claim that Rick Perry staying governor would mean even more democratic losses in congress. I don't see any evidence to support this assertion at all. The 11 districts dems now hold with the exception of maybe one (Chet Edwards) are all drawn in a way that pack them with democrats - they are nearly impossible to lose.

2)"A Dem in the Governor's house in 2008 could put Texas into play for the White House ".
Ummm.....no it won't.
Not at all.
Let me repeat - wildly, completely and utterly, dreamingly optimistic.
Texas IS a red state. A democratic governor WOULD NOT put texas in play in 2008. How you could even say that is beyond me. There are many red states in this country that have VERY popular democratic governors, and that did not mean a thing in the 2004 presidential election. NOT A THING. Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Montana, Tennessee, Virginia......they all voted for Bush even though they have VERY popular dem governors, so your statement is just plain wrong.

3) There are many other races that carry as much weight if not more than the texas governor's race. The race in Ohio could also lead to the redrawing of state lines if Strickland wins. Some goes for New York and Florida. The gerrymandering in Texas is NOTHING compared to the situation dems are in in florida - 6 out of 25 seats in a state that is 50/50 democrat/republican. Redistricitng in florida is WAY more important then texas ever will be. Winning back the statehouses in Pennsylvania and Michigan are also very real possibilities, allowing dems to pick up more cngressional seats a few years down the road.

The Democratic party will not be viewed as dead by the media after 2006 b/c we are going to make big gains in the Congress, the Senate, and pick up anywhere from 5-10 governorships. The result of one governor's race in RED RED RED RED texas will not lead anyone to declare us dead.

I stand corrected - I should have known better than to trust several Texas newspaper editorials on this point - Artilce IV of the Texas Constitution is clear - winner takes all and nothing in the election code indicates otherwise

Alan thanks for the clarification - I otherwise stand by my position but now must concede the possibility of a Dem winning Texas just got a lot harder - The key will be from which side will Strayhorn pull her votes - it is way too early for anyone to say with any competency - we should know by September -

Two quick corrections: there will be no November run-off for Governor -- plurality wins.

#2: Please refrain from referring to Chet Edwards as "the only Democrat targeted by Texas Republicans in their 2003 redistricting plan to win in November 2004" -- Lloyd Doggett was targeted,too; his district (mine) dismembered, but he switched districts, ran and won. So that makes two they missed. And Doggett is more likely to remain in office longer than Edwards. So don't lose sight of Lloyd, as he's been a master tactician in many legislative struggles.

Obviously these little posts do not allow for the type evidentiary and historical argument needed to fully defend my position - but let me add this - Cal. and MAss. have something in common - 2 very liberal Dem US Senators in States wherein Republicans can hold statewide office - both states have Republican Govs.

South Texas is the last bastion of the Texas Democratic Party - the Republicans are everywhere and gaining - Cameron COunty, namely Brownsville - the tip of Texas - voted for George W. Bush over Kerry - Cameron county is the 2nd poorest county in the United States - you cannot buy Cameron COunty with foodstamps and welfare.

Cameron County has 2 state reps in Austin - Rene Oliviera (Democrat) who is unchallenged and so pro insurance company that his bill to ban all lawsuits against HMO's was even voted down by the majority of Republicans - the other seat- which could go to Eddie Lucio the 3rd, who has taken 10k from the same man who funded the Swift Boat Veterans, and 50k from the same organization targeting Democratic Judges, would mean two DINOS' representing Cameron County - this is happening statewide to the handful of State House Seats still held by Democrats.

No where else in the country has one political party so systematically destroyed the other - if Texas were Vermont I might not care - Vermont, while it technically could decide a presidential election, is not the same as Texas whose electoral vote is 2nd only to California.

A Dem in the Governor's house in 2008 could put Texas into play for the White House - this changes the entire 2008 electoral map -

A dem in the TExas Govenor's house means 3-8 new Democratic Seats in the United States HOuse of Representatives - this could mean the Dems taking the HOuse away from the Republicans - no other Governor's race in the County carry's such weight .

If the Republicans manage to pull the plug on the life support for the Texas Democratic Party - which state is next?

In 2008 the if the Reps win the White House it will not be with someone tied to the white house - the VP is not running - this is a unique situation - this could easily mean 8-12 more years of Republicans in the White House

Republican Perry in the Governor's House in TExas Could mean the Dems loosing even more seats in the US House of Representatives thereby making any gains in other states voided out?

If you cannot hold office you do not have power - look at how the national media has written off Texas as hopelessly Republican - look at your own view of Texas on this issue - then ask yourself - if the Dems fail to take back the House, and lose the WHite House in 2008 - could the national media then view the Dems as dead in the water? The answer is yes.

I really don't see how the governor's race in texas is so dreadfully important to the democratic party. bobby makes the claim that the race is "life or death" for the whole party. I think that is more than ridiculous. The most important races for democrats in the fall are those in the senate and the house and the governorships of ohio, new york, california and others. I'm sorry but all this ranting about how the democratic party is doomed if we dont win the governorship in texas is complete nonsense. That's like sayng the republican party is doomed and dead if they don't win the senate seat in massachusetts.

Look, I live in the Congressional 22 with the Hammer as my representative. I lost Nick Lampson to the GOP gerrymander. So, I'm voting for GOP Tom Campbell against DeLay in the GOP primary, hoping to hold DeLay below 50% for a runoff in April. DeLay may get Campbell in the runoff, but it'll mobilize those GOP (and crossover Dems, like myself)against DeLay. Come November, we hope Nick will get national Dem support (i.e., $$S)and be able to thrash DeLay, who'll be in the throughs of the DA's criminal prosecution.

It really is amazing with how unpopular Rick Perry has been as a governor that he was re-elected in 2002 and will be re-elected in 2006. What a disgrace the voters are showing there. If you GOPers don't like the Dems, then vote for Strayhorn or someone else. I just don't see how someone who's numbers are consistently as bad as his have been how Texas voters continue to put him in office. Could one of you TX voters enlighten me? (I used to live in Fort Worth for a long time, so spare me I don't know anything about TX politics and give your honest opinion)

Did any of ya'll see that Delay is spending tonight at a fundraiser headed up by a lobbying group.
Does this guy have a political advisor or not? I mean at least put it off until Wednesday. I got the impression that Delay's opponents were using this as much as they could to paint Delay as out of touch.
Just wondered if any of you texas folks had heard anything on this

Thanks for the nice comments - I tend to agree that a win for the Dem's is a long shot - which in part is why I am stupified over all of the money going to Radnofsky in the US Senate Race against Hutchison.

I agree with your position that the Texas Legislature controlled by Dems is a way to control redistricting but the problem is the Republicans are running DINOS (Democrats in name only)all over South TExas.

IN the race for the 38th District Eddie Lucio III (alleged democrat) has accept 80% of his money from Republican organizations including from the same person how funded the Swift Boat veterans. He accepted 50 thousand from the same organization trying to unseat all Democratic judges.

Here is my scoop on the Governor's race - a win for Strayhorn is the worse thing in the long run for the Dems. She will hold on to the Govenors Office for 8 years. In a run-off between Strayhorn and Perry Strayhorn will earn the votes of true independents (the swing vote in Texas), a large number of Democrats will turn out for Strayhorn rather than turn over the Govenor's house to Perry again, and liberal and some moderate Republicans will vote for Strayhorn -

Do not underestimate Strayhorn's ability to win - remember ber son is Scott McClellan - (you know the guy everyone in the press loves to hate in the White House)

If the November run-off is Bell and Perry - angry Strayhorn supporters will vote for Bell - Perry is going to run a nasty compaign and really anger the Strayhorn people - the situation with abortion in places like SOuth Dakota is going to play in Texas - liberal and moderate Republicans are worried that Texas may go the same direction as S. Dakota - true independents and liberal Republicans are going to vote for Bell over Perry.

In a normal year I would say a straight up and down election between Dems and Repubs. the Dems would have 0 chance of winning - but the Strayhorn factor and the abortion factor could deliver a win to Bell.

If Bell wins, as governor, he will control redistricting, assuming the Supreme Court sends it back -

There is very little to no chance that Governor Perry can call a special session this summer for redistricting - he is under court order to fix the education system by June - he will call a special session in April, and then May, and then June, and then July - the Dems have enough power to hold up a resolution until September - then it will be too late for a special session on redistricting.

I admire Bobby Wightman-Cervantes' passion, but I fail to see how electing a Democrat as Governor changes anything about redistricting. Any unbiased observer will admit the Dems have two chances of electing a TX Governot this fall: slim and none. I'd rather put my energy into -- and think they've got a better chance of success at (slim and iffy) -- taking over the Texas House and Senate, where the maps will be drawn if SCOTUS strikes down the current maps.

That should be the focus of Dems whether the congressional maps remain or not. I don't think they'll get there this go-'round, but if they can get rid of a few Rs (like they did in Austin with Todd Baxter) and a few Ds-masquerading-as-Rs (like they're poised to do with Frank Madla), that will be a big step on the road to relevance.

In Texas this morning's papers are reporting low turn-outs in early voting - for those of you who do not know in Texas we start voting several weeks before the actual election day - no reason needed - the speculation in the papers, obviously no one knows for sure, is that people are holding so that they can sign the ballot petitions of the independent candidates.

National Democrats need to pay close attention to the Texas Governor's race - personally I voted for Bell because he has been calling for reform in the Texas Democratic Party for some time - we need reform in the Party if we are to take back the state

This is why the Texas Governor's race is so important - there is a real chance that the United States Supreme Court is going to send Texas back to the drawing board on redistricting - if we have a Democrat in the Governor's house it will mean 3-8 additional seats for Democrats - that means 3-8 more Seats for the Democrats in the United States House of Representatives. It could mean the difference between who controls the House of Representatives - the Democrats or the Republicans.

To my fellow Democrats - tomorrow morning you need to see who won the Texas Democratic Primary for Governor and then send that person money - lots of money -

The Texas Governor's race is as much about the United States House of Representatives as it is about the Texas Governor's House.

Your right that as a democrat I want to see Delay win today so we can make him the poster boy for the next election. However, as an American I want him to get creamed today. I want there to be no possibility that Delay can return to congress EVER.