Well, I took an unscientific poll of Derek fans. Everyone appears to be voting Riker. Granted, I have 11k followers and only about 30 people responded to the tweet…but only one or two said they were voting Noah. Everyone else said Riker. I have NO idea if this is the best course of action. One minute I think Riker has a better shot, then five seconds later I’m thinking Noah is getting a ton of votes. The fact that they called Riker safe makes me think that he was the one that was only 1.5% ahead of Nastia…then five minutes later I think that he was in first place. I have no idea.

As I preach every week in my “Dancing by the Numbers” post, it’s NOT just the voters, but the judges as well. Their points count for half. Generally, the finale and semi-final can go one of two ways. The judges rank the couples by handing out scores that put someone in 1st, 2nd and 3rd place OR they throw out scores in such a way to create a tie – that’s called throwing it to the audience. Which way will they go?? Well, if they throw it to the audience, I expect that it’s Rumer’s to lose. After all their hard, hard work this season in making sure Val gets a MBT, are they likely to throw it to the audience if she didn’t have it in the bag? Maybe, maybe not. I feel schizophrenic. At the end of the day, if Noah is within three points, I would want to vote for him. However…if all the Derek fans are going with Riker, well then I should go with them, right?? :::sigh::: We’ll discuss this again at the end of round one. 😉

Okay, Noah up first with his AT.

He was pretty unsteady in spots…but a 32 may be the nail in his coffin, depending on how the other two do.

Riker up next with his Paso – which he pretty much killed. If he gets nitpicked, I’ll be pissed.

Standing ovation from Len?? Either Riker is doing horrible in votes or he’s doing amazing. No middle ground.

Aren’t you shocked that Rumer is going last?? I know I am. (end sarcasm)

A bit out of sync…and still rather hard. Bruno mentions “hollywood royalty” and “dancing royalty”. CAI says poetry in motion. Oy veh. Long night.

Difference after round one….Noah needs about 72k more votes per million votes cast to beat either Rumer or Riker. Biggest Margin ever, I think. This will change after the freestyles, but it looks like I’m voting Noah.

Okay, Noah’s freestyle was killer. I loved it. It best be a perfect score. They’ve handicapped him enough.

Dance party in the red room and Erin makes a funny at Redfoo.

Aaannnndd…Noah gets a perfect score. Well deserved but it also seemed pre-planned.

Lot’s of pressure on Rumer and Val because Riker just slayed it with a fun, different, cool free style.

Welp, I’m voting Riker….I hope you do too. 😀

Someone explain to me how that was a freestyle?? And how it was markedly different from anything else she did all season long. Me thinks they missed the whole point of a freestyle.

Gee, where have I heard that bit about stripping it down….oh, that’s right, DEREK.

Okay, with a diferential of about 35k votes, I’m voting Riker. You also have to remember there is a dance that is scored tomorrow. Need to vote to make up for the underscoring that Riker will likely get.

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Sounds like we’re going to get a whole bunch of contemporary, whether we like it or not. I say not, for the most part. It’s so over done now. Geez, I’m not old enough to be whining about the Good ole days, but that’s what I feel like doing. Remember Derek and Jennifer’s freestyle – simple dance, but so nostalgic and tailored perfectly for Jennifer. Half the internet screamed “She carried a watermelon!!” What about Hines Ward? Love it or hate it, that Freestyle was different. As was Amber Riley’s. I could go on, but what’s the point?

Thing is, when you do contemporary, you’re now working against a very strong couple of dances from Derek and his partners. Unless you really go out there, you run the risk of being very derivative. Although that’s not really new for one of our couples. 😉 Anyway, I still have high hopes for Noah and Sharna – theirs looks like it has potential. The rest? Jury is definitely out.

I got this info from the press release via @DWTSGossip. Could have gotten it myself but I can’t find the damn password to the ABC site and the lovely Vogue is taking care of some personal stuff.

In the two-hour Season Finale on TUESDAY, MAY 19 (9:00-11:00 p.m. ET), the show kicks off with a high-energy opening number featuring a reunion of all 12 of this season’s couples in addition to the judges and hosts. Then, one couple will perform an encore of their Freestyle dance as decided on by the judges. The finale will also feature a performance to “Juicy Wiggle,” by RedFoo and encore performances by Charlotte McKinney and Keo Motsepe to “California Girls,” Suzanne Somers and Tony Dovolani to “Copacabana” featuring six additional dancers, Robert Herjavec and Kym Johnson to “Bills,” Chris Soules and Witney Carson to “Footloose,” Willow Shields and Mark Ballas to “Alice’s Theme,” Nastia Liukin and Derek Hough’s Charleston to “Honey, I’m Good” featuring a performance by Andy Grammar and much more. The night will also include a reprise performance from Patti LaBelle and Artem Chigvintsev to “In Da Club,” and the Grammy award winning artist will also perform her hit song “2 Steps Away.” Additionally, fan favorites from past seasons Amy Purdy, Alfonso Ribeiro and Sadie Robertson return to the ballroom for special performances. Sia will perform her hit song “Elastic Heart” with a special dance performance by Derek and Julianne Hough. The star studded night will continue with a performance by Jason Derulo singing his hit song “Want To Want Me.” In the last element of competition, the couples will perform a new routine as part of a “24 Hour Fusion Challenge.” The remaining couples will fuse two contrasting dance styles that they’ve performed this season and they’ll have less than 24 hours to prepare that dance for additional judges’ points. At the end of the night, the winner of the Gold Mirrorball trophy will be announced!

ETA: Good for Riker, redoing the Pirate Paso!! Loved that dance.

ETA2: Be sure to see this link and this link for some fun rehearsal teasers. Lookin’ good!!!

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Okay, we’re now up to three Derek dances on the finale, this one with Julianne, the one with Amy and Noah, and one with Nastia. I sense an attempt at appeasing the masses. Or just using Derek to keep his fans tuned in. BUT, this offers Derek and Julianne a great opportunity to promote MOVE! Derek, at least, is owed that much, IMO.

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Well, there’s only one thing I’m reasonably certain of – Noah will make the finale. He might even win the whole damn thing and I wouldn’t be upset by that. Sharna (and CAI) did some amazing work last night. Just amazing.

As for the rest? Nastia had, by far, the strongest night of the remaining three – not that that means anything with this show. She’s handicapped by Derek…but possibly helped by his injury and that absolutely beautiful, tear jerking V. Waltz with Derek and Len. I cried. A lot. Something about a man Len’s age confessing he can no longer do what he loves. :::sob:::

Riker came in a very close second to Nastia for me. His first dance was absolutely fantastic – just amazing. The judge’s choice was really not that good. Too much Julianne…who couldn’t devote enough time to it to do it justice. Which is a shame, really, because Riker is a good, entertaining dancer.

Rumer had two good, solid dances but they suffered from the over hype (as is typical) by Val. It wasn’t all that, babe. I don’t even remember her first dance. Her second dance was a bit of a letdown. Interesting concept by Bruno, but I don’t think it served them that well. Both were well danced, as usual, but well danced doesn’t cut it in a semi-final where there is so much emotion.

But, all that said, the scores are close enough that anyone (except Noah) could be going home. I was surprised that they actually scored the first round fairly, handing out scores that I would have handed out. Shocking. But the two points that Rumer is down may not be enough to protect Riker or Nastia. It’s too close to call. If the weakest dancer last night went home, it would be Rumer. Not that she’s weak…but I think the other three had it over her. But something tells me that they’ve successfully brainwashed the audience into voting her into the finale. Out of Riker and Nastia, I tend to give Nastia the edge. But who knows? Let’s look at the leader board.

Argh. Annoying that they gave everyone a 30 in the second round, when I think that neither Riker nor Rumer really deserved it. But, as they often do when it’s close, they throw it to the audience to make the decision. Something tells me they won’t make the right one this time around. We’ll see.

So, Noah is at the bottom of the leaderboard. Although I think he did an amazing, truly inspirational job this season, last night was the topper – but all that said, I would rather Rumer, Riker and Nastia go to the finale. That ALSO said, I won’t be upset with whoever goes home tomorrow night. I got Derek for ten weeks regardless….and I have a feeling that maybe the producers have finally pushed him too far, so we might not see him on this stage again.

I digress. What does Noah need to make the finale?? Not much.

That’s really nothing at this stage of the game and I think he makes it easily. I could be wrong. It’s always possible that one fan group or another gets over confident, or another fan group seeing that proposal knows they could be screwed.

Next is Rumer. Rumer is two points ahead of Noah and two points behind Riker and Nastia. Again, not a lot of work required for her to be safe.

For Rumer to be safe tomorrow night, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

Noah fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat her, OR;

Rumer gets 7,300 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Riker or Nastia.

That’s it. And I have no idea what will happen. For me, Rumer was the least memorable last night. She kinda faded into the woodwork. But they have a media machine going for them, in addition to the lion’s share of the actual show last night.

For Nastia or Riker to be safe tomorrow night, they need ONE of the following to happen (same rules apply to each of them since they are tied):

Noah fails to get the 14,600 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;

Rumer fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;

One of them gets ONE MORE vote per million votes cast than the other.

No idea what’s going to happen.

But I have to make a guess. I think that Noah is passing Rumer and Riker for sure. Not so sure about Nastia, as she had the great Len tribute dance at the end of the show. I think Noah is safe.

That leaves me with the other three. Based purely on demographics, I lean toward Nastia getting the one vote needed to beat Riker. Does Rumer get past her? Hard to say, but based on last night I would say no. I *THINK* Nastia might be safe. But the other half of me thinks that Derek is too big a liability these days. I can’t decide.

I tend to think that Nastia gets the one vote over Riker. That would bring us down to Riker and Rumer. Rumer was more consistent last night, but Riker had the more exciting first dance. I kinda feel like the second dance let Riker down a bit. While I wasn’t overly impressed with Rumer’s second dance, I feel like it was better executed that Riker’s.

Honestly, I’m leaning toward Riker going home tonight but it could be ANYONE. I won’t be surprised by whoever it is.

One more week until Heidi can read books and sleep. 😀 Until MOVE Live on Tour starts up, anyway. 😉

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Oy veh, Judges Choice. I think this should be interesting. Also interesting is that only Nastia got two ballroom dances. Handicapping Derek once again – or trying to. I have faith he has come up with great dances – I just want him to do something else already. He’s so above the petty manipulations of this show.

No clue as of this moment who will go home tomorrow night – not overly concerned about it either. I’m still thinking it would be fun to see Riker win – Val gets beaten by a pro with no real Ballroom pedigree?? Be sure to watch the DWM Twitter account. If you thought they were vile after Kellie beat Zendaya, I have a feeling they would reach new lows. 😀

Anyway…T-minus 15 minutes until a judge proclaims that Rumer should win because she’s just all that…

Great opening number!! Loved it.

Should I be timing this package of Rumer’s?? It seems to be going on forever. Feel for her on the bullying though.

Lots of Chmerkovskiy staples. Much walking in the beginning. Much staring in the middle. I feel like the rest of it was pretty good but I wasn’t overly impressed. It was ‘aight.

My favorite thing about Rumer is that she’s well spoken enough and confident enough that she doesn’t leave Val much time to talk. 😀 Oh sure, gotta interview Demi – anything that might help. Don’t know if it actually WILL help though…

Beautiful dance by Noah and Sharna – loved how she creatively mimicked his way of going up the stairs. Very nice touch. And an example of actual creative walking.

And Noah will be going to the finale. He may even win. :::sniff::: Can’t be upset by that.

Michael Vartan, you hottie.

Wow. Really good contemporary from Riker and Allison. That’s why Allison is on this show and I pity the pro going against her in that genre. Except Derek. And wow, Bruno just said he should make the finale. Perhaps he’s in the lead in recent weeks?

Rydell is like a Brittany Spears double. Well deserved perfect score for Riker. Well done, dude.

Yes, Julianne, you have been really hard on her. Nice of you to admit it. Now if we could just get them to admit to pimping….

Okay, two updates – the second dance of the night didn’t get going until about 8:20. The last dance of the night from package to cut away lasted less than 8 minutes. So, Rumer may have gotten the lower score, but she’s certainly hogging the camera time.

Second update. This bloggers opinion is that Rumer was the weakest dance of round 1 and Riker was the strongest dance of Round 1.

Rumer and Val’s Ballet Contemporary Fusion – suffered from overhype. It was a really good dance, but it wasn’t the spectacular spectacular that I was expecting. I mean…really good, but… :::shrug:::

Aaannndddd…Rumer once again gets the lion’s share of the TV Time. Come on, DWTS. This is ridiculous. Nastia gets 14 minutes to Rumer’s 30??

Holeeeee CRAP! Well, done CAI and Sharna and Noah!! Excellent dance. Noah just might win this thing. I did hear Tom say, “How are we going to top this next week?” Good question. But damn – that was excellent.

20 minutes left and still two dances to go. Who still thinks going last in the Semi-final is a good thing, eh??

Oh dear. I think Jules kinda blew that AT for Riker. Too many props, too messy. That’s a shame. If that gets a 30, Nastia should be guaranteed one as well. From the glowing comments…wonder if he’s killing it in votes or if all the judges are just going to do this for each other.

Nastia and Len. :::sob::: Man, heartbreaking to hear Len talk so frankly about not being able to dance anymore. :::sob:::

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Was going to wait to the end of the results show, like normal, to do this post, then figured this would be cleaner. Everyone discussing this show in the same place.

Well, if the beginning of the results show wasn’t enough to put you off dinner, nothing will. It’s not the dancing, the dancing was fine. I’m talking about the overlong glowing crap ass pimp show package for Val and Rumer. Ya’ll are trying to hard – it’s making me suspicious. Plus your agenda is showing.

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Well, like I predicted last week, the judges made a clear difference between the top three and the bottom two, with Noah hovering somewhere in the middle. This should be a slam dunk for the top three, but I heard something that made me wonder. Tom was very clear that everyone should make note of Rumer’s number and make sure they were dialing it right. “Check that number and dial carefully.” Interesting.

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

And this week we have two dances again for each couple, one of which is Judges Pick. How convenient we have Judges pick BEFORE the finale. Let’s see who gets hosed this week.

Clearly not Rumer – the Argentine Tango totally plays into her ONE NOTE. Plays to all her strengths. I fully expect Riker and Nastia to get something exceedingly boring and/or out of character. Read more..

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Theme of the week is America’s Choice. Theoretically. I mean, looking at Rumer’s songs I am skeptical. In my mind, how the judges behave tonight is a strong indicator of what will happen going forward, although we may not know it until tomorrow night ends. What do I mean? Well, sometimes you’re not sure of why they’re behaving in a given way until after an elimination – or after the MBT is handed out. If they continue to score Rumer appropriately, I would say she’s not going to win. If they massively overscore her, though, it doesn’t mean she’s going to win….it could also mean she’s in danger.

And that same rule applies to most of them. I think. It’s possible that they could start lowballing Riker and Nastia in an effort to give Rumer a better shot at getting votes under the theory of “everyone wants to vote for a winner”. That’s dangerous though, because I think both camps could rally and knock Rumer right out of the game. It’s really hard to say – but it will be interesting (and likely very aggravating) to watch.

T-minus 30 minutes…I need food and a nap. NYC is exhausting, ya’ll.

Julianne looks great. Love the dress, love the hair.

Yeah, Noah’s dance was a bit stiff, understandably. I don’t know if he’ll ever top last week.

Gee, guess Rumer is going last since she’s up in AllAccess. Huh.

Hmmm….Chris didn’t suck, but 34 out of 40?? Seems a bit….high. Does that mean they’ve reconciled themselves to him in the final, or that he’s going home?

Riker and Allison’s dance was really too fast and a tad jerky for me.

The judges are raving- except Len of course. I’m thinking the front runners are going to get high scores (whether they deserve it or not) to keep that clear demarcation between upper and lower tier dancers, which increase the odds that we lose Robert and Chris.

Yeah, that was not a 39 dance, ya’ll.

I’m tired. I missed the kiss. And Len was all nice after this dance. Weird. The judges give them a 33….which I think is probably fair.

Nastia is going to get the bad edit. Okay….later she will.

Oooo…nice Paso. Coulda a been a bit tougher in places. Len is going to hose them.

Derek does not look ridiculous, Jules. And I didn’t see out of sync. But I guess Rumer needs to be on top this week.

Hmmm…that dance was better than Riker’s and yet he was overscored. I wonder why?? Yeah, underscored relative to Riker for sure. Waiting for Rumer’s comeback arc and perfect 40. Whether she deserves it or not.

Val has a moment of self awareness. Amazing. Kudos for that. That will get them some votes.

Okay, that was a really good dance, I’m just not sure I saw a lot of Rumba content. That said, I’m generally not a rumba fan so I may not be the one to comment on content.

Oh boy, here comes the narrative about how much it means to Val. Every season. :::rolls eyes::: I don’t actually quibble with the 40. She’s tied for first place with Riker with Nastia only one point back. Perhaps she needs it to be safe from Robert and/or Chris and/or Noah.

Liked the salsa from Noah better than his first dance – little wobbly on the Emma Lift, but overall good choreo from Sharna with nice visuals.

I just burned all your crops. LOL.

I gotta hand it to Chris, He’s trying and he’s stepping it up!

Great dance from Riker. Loved it. I think he might just win this thing, if the producers let him.

Oh come on, Len. That was every bit as good as the rumba from Rumer.

Riker is a full 20 points ahead of Chris right now – this is what I was talking about with the two tiers of scores to try to ensure the good dancers stick around.

Lots of timing issues with Robert, and I think Jenna even lost track of him at one point. She’s not experienced dancing with a celeb. CAI is being VERY kind to Robert.

While I think that the concept and the choreo was AMAZING for Derek/Nastia/Sasha, I feel like she got off time in one or two spots. But it was certainly no worse than Riker’s first dance.

Again, Rumer does a good dance…yet I feel like there wasn’t a lot of content in that dance. It seemed very repetitive in a few spots and there was a spot where Val and Artem were dancing with each other and Rumer didn’t have much to do. And CAI just said “saved the best for last”. I cry bullshit. And of course she gets a 40. She must be in danger.

And Tom just said “Check the number and dial carefully”. Hmmmmm…..

In case you’re wondering, Nastia and Rumer are tied at the top with 117, and Riker is two points back at 115. Interesting how they don’t mention THAT at the end of the night.

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)