Devastation in the Yarmouk refugee camp (Haqq, May 20, 2018)

The scene of the terrorist attack (Al-Alam, May 16, 2018)

Photo from the scene of the attack (YouTube, May 19, 2018)

The scene of the attack (Assakina, May 20, 2018)

Main events of the week

After approximately one month of fighting, the Syrian army completed its takeover of the ISIS enclave south of Damascus. As a result, the Syrian regime declared the Damascus area “a terror-free zone.” Previously, around 1,600 ISIS operatives and their families were evacuated from the southern neighborhoods of Damascus to the Syrian Desert, and 600 other families were evacuated to Idlib (following an unofficial evacuation arrangement with the Syrian regime). ISIS issued a laconic statement saying that its operatives had left the southern part of Damascus as “victors and with their heads held high” after fighting for around one month and causing many Syrian army casualties. The Syrian internal security forces are now preparing to finish mopping up the neighborhoods that were under ISIS’s control and to restore the Syrian regime’s control of them.

While ISIS is suffering defeats in Syria, and its operatives in Iraq are under incessant pressure from the Iraqi security forces, ISIS’s provinces and its supporters throughout the world continue to carry out intensive terrorist activity. This week, four ISIS operatives attacked a church in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya (three dead); in Afghanistan, a deadly attack was carried out during a cricket match at a stadium in Jalalabad (at least eight dead; ISIS has not yet claimed responsibility); in the Philippines, ISIS announced that its operatives had killed at least 33 Philippine army soldiers on the island of Sulu, at the southern tip of the Philippines.

In light of the achievements of the Syrian army, and as part of the preparations for the day after, tension is rising between the main centers of power supporting the Syrian regime.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Special Envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev made it clear that in light of the achievements of the Syrian army in its struggle against terror, all foreign forces would have to leave Syria. Alexander Lavrentiev clarified that they were referring to the Americans, the Turks, Hezbollah, and Iran (Russia, of course, is not included in this definition). The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman hastened to respond that Iran was an independent state operating in accordance with its own interests and that it would remain in Syria as long as terrorism posed a danger and as long as the Syrian government wanted it to remain there.

In the ITIC’s assessment, the inclusion of Iran and Hezbollah among the foreign forces that will have to leave Syria reflects a clear Russian interest in remaining a dominant force in Syria at the end of the civil war and political settlement, and not allowing other forces (including Iran) to share its influence on the Syrian regime. This interest runs counter to the Iranian strategy, which strives to influence the Syrian regime, an essential component of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis in the era after the civil war. As long as the Syrian regime’s survival was in danger, the shared interests of Iran and Russia were strong enough to ensure cooperation between them. However, now that the Syrian regime is stabilizing and the future of political settlement in Syria is on the agenda, the need for military support from Iran and Hezbollah is diminishing, and the fundamental conflict of interests between Russia and Iran is rising to the surface.[1]

Russian involvement in Syria

Statements by senior Russian officials to the effect that foreign forces, including Iran and Hezbollah, must withdraw from Syria

On May 17, 2018, Syrian President Bashar Assad made a surprise visit to Sochi, Russia. During his visit, Assad met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Kremlin website, the two discussed the situation in Syria, including the issue of the struggle against terrorism and the reconciliation process in the country. During their meeting, the two reportedly coordinated their joint efforts in the struggle against the terrorist organizations, noted the significant progress made by the Syrian army, and drew the conclusion that the conditions were right for accelerating the political process. After the meeting, Putin made the following statement: “We proceed from the assumption that in view of the significant victories and success achieved by the Syrian Army in its fight against terrorism, and the start of a more active phase of the political process, foreign armed forces will be withdrawing from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic” (Kremlin website, May 17, 2018).

Vladimir Putin and Bashar Assad at their meeting in Sochi (Kremlin website, May 17, 2018)

The Russian President’s Special Envoy to Syria Alexander Lavrentiev (who attended the meeting between Assad and Putin together with the Russian foreign minister and defense minister) said that “all foreign military units whose forces are in Syrian territory” must leave the country. These foreign forces, according to him, include “the Americans, the Turks, Hezbollah, of course, and the Iranians.” He noted that Russia was not included.[2] Lavrentiev stressed that the withdrawal did not have to be carried out immediately, but rather coordinated with other actions. He said that the struggle against terrorism was in its final stages, but remnants of ISIS, the Al-Nusra Front and other organizations still remained in Syria, and therefore the withdrawal of the forces would take some time (RIA in Russian; TASS News Agency, May 18, 2018).

Iran’s response

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi referred to the Russian statements regarding the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria, including Iran, and stressed that Iran is an independent state operating according to its national interests. He made it clear that Iran would remain in Syria as long as there was a danger from terrorist operatives, as long as the Syrian government was interested in it remaining, and as long as its presence was necessary. He claimed that those who entered Syria without the consent of the Syrian regime were the ones who had to leave (a veiled reference to the United States and Turkey) (Tasnim News Agency; ISNA, May 21, 2018).

Syria

The Syrian army took over the ISIS enclave south of Damascus

About a month after the launch of the campaign to take over the southern suburbs of Damascus, the Syrian army announced that its forces had completed the takeover of the ISIS enclave in Damascus’s southern suburbs. The Syrian regime declared the Damascus area a “terror-free zone” (Syrian army’s Military Information; Qasiyoun, May 21, 2018). Before that, about 1,600 ISIS operatives and their families had been evacuated by 32 buses to the Syrian Desert. Additional 600 family members of operatives (women and children) were transferred to Idlib (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, May 21, 22, 2018; Al-Alam, May 22, 2018). The Syrian Internal Security forces are now preparing to enter the Yarmouk refugee camp and the neighborhood of Al-Hajar al-Aswad, two former ISIS strongholds, to mop them up from remaining ISIS operatives and complete their takeover (Syrian News Agency; TASS, May 20, 2018).

Right: Syrian army soldiers celebrating the takeover of the enclave from ISIS (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, May 21, 2018). Left: Syrian soldiers in the Yarmouk refugee camp near a school previously used by Ashbal al-Khilafah, ISIS’s youth movement which turns ISIS’s children into operatives of the organization (FortRussNews@ Twitter account, May 19, 2018)

ISIS’s reaction

ISIS reacted briefly on its defeat. On May 21, 2018, it released a brief announcement that its operatives had left south Damascus “victorious and with their heads held high” after having caused the Syrian forces more than 1,000 fatalities during one month of fighting (Haqq, May 21, 2018).

ISIS released photos documenting the devastation in the Yarmouk refugee camp. The photos, taken by Russian photographers, were released under the title, “See the heavy damage in the Yarmouk camp, where fighters of the Islamic State maintained heroic resistance for over a month” (Haqq, May 20, 2018). In the ITIC’s assessment, the publication was intended to blame the Syrian regime for the devastation and at the same time glorify ISIS for its “heroic” resistance. This was intended as a public response in view of ISIS losing its important enclave in Damascus’s southern suburbs.

The spokesman for the UN secretary-general, who quoted UNRWA, reported that the Yarmouk refugee camp was almost completely destroyed. According to him, this justifies UNRWA’s request to receive urgent funding for dealing with Syria (TASS, May 20, 2018).

Lower Euphrates Valley

Operation Al-Jazeera Storm continues

In the lower Euphrates Valley, clashes continued on the outskirts of the village of Hajin (about 26 km north of Albukamal), ISIS’s outstanding stronghold on the east bank of the Euphrates River. The SDF forces took over a hill overlooking Hajin, and fighting took place on the outskirts of the village. According to reports, the SDF forces were supported by French artillery fire at ISIS targets and International Coalition airstrikes (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, May 20, 2018; SDF Facebook page, May 20, 2018).

Right: Kurdish forces in the area of Hajin. Left: Kurdish forces observing the village of Hajin (SDF Facebook page, May 20, 2018)

Albukamal area

ISIS reported that its snipers had killed two Syrian army soldiers on the outskirts of Albukamal. In addition, ISIS operatives fired mortar shells at the Syrian army in Albukamal (Haqq, May 17, 2018).

On May 21, 2018, Pentagon Spokesman Col. Rob Manning announced that Coalition forces had carried out several airstrikes against ISIS operatives and equipment near Albukamal. According to the report, ISIS tactical units, command and control targets, supply routes and fighting positions were hit (US Department of Defense, May 21, 2018).

Main developments in Iraq

One of the senior ISIS commanders captured was an accomplice to the burning of the Jordanian pilot

The Iraqi National Information Center reported that Saddam Omar Yahya al-Jamal, one of the five senior ISIS commanders who had been captured in the combined Iraqi, American and Turkish intelligence operation, was an accomplice to the burning of the Jordanian pilot Muadh al-Kasasbeh (Al-Dostor, May 13, 2018). Saddam al-Jamal was a senior ISIS commander who was also in charge of security in ISIS’s Furat Province. On February 3, 2015, ISIS released a video showing the burning of the Jordanian pilot, whose plane was downed on December 24, 2014, in the area of Al-Raqqah.

Saddam Omar Yahya al-Jamal, senior ISIS commander who was an accomplice to burning the Jordanian pilot (Al-Dostor, May 13, 2018)

Al-Mutaybijah, north of Baqubah, turning into ISIS’s main stronghold in Iraq

Senior Iraqi official in the Diyala Province reported that ISIS had turned the area of Al-Mutaybijah (about 66 km north of Baqubah) into its main stronghold in Iraq. ISIS operatives from various provinces, including Diyala, had reportedly gathered there and their number still increases (Al-Sumaria News, May 18, 2018).

ISIS reported that eleven people were killed and eight others were wounded as a result of a suicide bombing north of Baghdad on May 15, 2018. An ISIS operative codenamed Abu Khattab al-Samarra’i detonated his explosive vest after he had joined a group of people who had arrived to pay their condolences to Aqid (Col.) Amer Ahmad al-Takah (killed in an ISIS attack on his house on May 14, 2018). The suicide bombing attack took place north of Al-Taji, a large camp of the Iraqi army forces (Haqq, May 17, 2018). According to Iraqi sources, the terrorist was attacked by the security forces, and during the attack, several people were killed and others were wounded (Al-Alam, May 16, 2018).

Iraqi security forces’ activity

Following are the highlights of the Iraqi security forces’ activity against ISIS:

Kirkuk Province:

Eight ISIS operatives, including a commander, were killed in an Iraqi Air Force airstrike about 75 km southwest of Kirkuk. Four additional ISIS operatives were killed and ISIS hideouts were destroyed by the Iraqi Federal Police with Iraqi Air Force support about 45 km southwest of Kirkuk (Al-Sumaria News, May 17, 2018).

Iraqi Federal Police destroyed five ISIS hideouts in the Hawija District, about 55 km west of Kirkuk. In addition, weapons and two motorcycles were found in this area (Iraqi News Agency, May 20, 2018).

Popular Mobilization forces killed five ISIS operatives about 12 km south of Kirkuk. The forces, acting on intelligence, set up ambushes in the area and hit vehicles of ISIS operatives (Iraqi News Agency, May 20, 2018).

Al-Anbar Province: Iraqi security forces reported that three ISIS hideouts were destroyed during searches in several areas in the Al-Anbar Province. In addition, 19 IEDs were found and neutralized (Iraqi News Agency, May 20, 2018).

Nineveh Province: Four ISIS operatives were detained by the Iraqi security forces in Tall Kayf, about 15 km north of Mosul. The detainees admitted carrying out attacks against civilians and Iraqi security forces (Al-Sumaria News, May 18, 2018).

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

Egyptian officers killed and wounded in ISIS attacks

On May 17, 2018, ISIS operatives detonated an IED near an armored vehicle on the Al-Arish ring road. Captain Abdel Majid al-Mahi, an officer in the Egyptian Central Security forces in Sinai, was killed in the explosion (Al-Masry Al-Youm; Al-Bosala, May 18, 2018). According to an Egyptian security source, Liwa (Maj. Gen.) Nasser Hussein, deputy manager of the Central Region security sector in northern Sinai, was wounded (Al-Jazeera, May 18, 2018). ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack (Haqq, May 18, 2018).

Right: Naqib (Captain) Abdel Majid Mostafa al-Mahi, officer of the Central Security Forces in Sinai, killed by an ISIS IED in the area of Al-Arish. Left: The armored vehicle which was hit an ISIS IED in the area of Al-Arish (Haqq, May 18, 2018)

On May 18, 2018, ISIS announced that armed operatives had attacked a staging zone of Egyptian army forces in southern Sheikh Zuweid. Ra’ed (Maj.) Abdel Rahman al-Shinawi and another soldier were killed in the attack (Haqq, May 18, 2018).

Operation Sinai 2018 continues: On May 17, 2018, the Egyptian Armed Forces Spokesman announced (Announcement No. 22) that the Egyptian Air Force had destroyed a vehicle which attempted to penetrate into Egypt from the western border (with Libya). The vehicle contained large quantities of weapons and ammunition. In addition, ten terrorist operatives were killed in clashes with the Egyptian security forces in northern and central Sinai. Weapons, ammunition, and wireless communications devices were found in their possession. Nine other terrorist operatives were killed in clashes with Interior Ministry security guards in the area of Al-Arish. In addition, nine cars and 15 motorcycles which had no license plates were found and destroyed. Egyptian army sappers found and neutralized three IEDs which were planted on the traffic routes used by the Egyptian security forces (Facebook page of the Egyptian Armed Forces Spokesman, May 17, 2018).

Jihadi activity in other countries

Afghanistan

Multi-casualty terrorist attack at a cricket stadium in Jalalabad

On May 19, 2018, at least eight people were killed and at least 55 others were wounded in four explosions during a cricket match at a stadium in Jalalabad, eastern Afghanistan. Two of the explosions took place inside the stadium and two others outside, apparently targeting the spectators who fled after the first two explosions (Afghanistan Times, May 20, 2018). So far, no claim of responsibility by ISIS has been found, but the organization has recently carried out a number of attacks in the city of Jalalabad, and may have been behind this attack as well.

Photo from the scene of the attack (YouTube, May 19, 2018)

ISIS attack against a church in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, Russia

On May 19, 2018, four ISIS operatives attacked the Archangel Michael Church in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, Russia. The attack killed three people. All four operatives were eliminated. The Amaq News Agency issued a statement in which ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. ISIS’s claim of responsibility stated that the operatives used knives, Molotov cocktails, and rifles (Reuters, May 20, 2018).

The scene of the attack (Assakina, May 20, 2018)

ISIS’s Sahara Province added to the list of terrorist organizations of the US Department of State

On May 16, 2018, it was reported that the US Department of State had added ISIS’s Sahara branch (the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara – ISGS) to the list of designated international terrorist organizations. According to the report, the commander of this province is Adnan Abu al-Walid al-Sahrawi, who pledged allegiance to ISIS in October 2016. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, which operates in the border area of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, has claimed responsibility for several attacks carried out in the region (The Long War Journal, May 16, 2018).

Clashes between Philippine army soldiers and ISIS

On May 15, 2018, ISIS’s Amaq News Agency announced that at least 33 Philippine army soldiers have been killed and more than 32 wounded in clashes with ISIS operatives on the island of Sulu, at the southern tip of the Philippines (Haqq, May 16, 2018). Sources in the Philippines did not confirm the reports of the soldiers’ deaths. On May 13, 2018, the Philippine army launched a campaign to take over ISIS positions in the area. On May 17, 2018, according to a security source in Sulu, there were about 300 operatives of the ISIS-affiliated Abu Sayyaf organization on the island (ASG) (Manila Times, May 17, 2018).

Counterterrorism and preventive activity

ISIS operatives detained by Turkish police

The Turkish police reported that it had detained 54 foreigners suspected of belonging to ISIS. The suspects reportedly intended to travel to the battle zones in Syria (Reuters, May 15, 2018). On May 17, 2018, it was reported that the Turkish police had detained nine suspected ISIS operatives in several sites in the Adana Province in southern Turkey. The suspects included two Syrian citizens. One of the detainees was involved in manufacturing missile warheads for ISIS in the Al-Bab Province in Syria (Hürriyet Daily News, May 17, 2018).

ISIS network operatives detained in Brazil

Eleven people were detained in Brazil for attempting to set up an ISIS terrorist network and trying to recruit operatives and send them to Syria. The detainees contacted each other on social networks that were monitored by the Brazilian police, after the Spanish police supplied the Brazilian police with phone numbers found on the mobile phone of a Brazilian ISIS operative detained in Spain. Some of the suspects had contacted each other on a WhatsApp group and planned to carry out a ramming attack at the carnival in Rio de Janeiro or in Salvador (Reuters, May 17, 2018).

The battle for hearts and minds conducted by ISIS

ISIS’s campaign of intimidation in advance of the World Cup

On May 16, 2018, ISIS published a new poster on Telegram and social media showing football players Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo being beheaded by ISIS operatives in a crowded football stadium. The inscription, written in Arabic and Spanish, reads: “The earth will be filled with your blood,” with the words “The Islamic State” in English below it (Site, May 17, 2018). This is yet another expression of the campaign of intimidation that ISIS is conducting in advance of the World Cup in Russia.

The poster with the inscription, “The earth will be filled with your blood,” with the words “The Islamic State” below it (Site, May 17, 2018)