The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

44 and 1500

Well, that was a fun day, wasn't it? Maybe tomorrow will be even more fun...

Here are some charts you need to review for perspective. First, look at gold on a 30-minute basis. I drew the "swiss stair" lines on this one. Note that time is nearly up for the next move forward.

The only thing stopping it is the psychological barrier of 1500. We printed a few trades above that level today but, not surprisingly, we quickly gave the level back. It is regrouping now, using 1495 as a staging area. If you look at gold from a daily perspective, you see that other than the 1500 psych level, there is absolutely no reason for gold to pause here. So, let's put 1500 away and move on towards Santa's next angel at 1521.

Silver looks great. I would expect another run at 44 on the Globex this afternoon or early evening. Maybe put it in the rearview mirror tomorrow and we're just one, quick, short-covering panic away from $45. As you know, I'm holding May 43s, 44s and 45s. They expire Tuesday so I have to stay pretty nimble. For now, I will sell my 45s only on a move back down through 43.40. IF we do see $45 or so tomorrow, I'll sell my 43s and maybe my 44s. I'll certainly keep you posted.

Anyone hoping for some relief at the pump is not going to like this next chart. Tungstenman succeeded in blasting WTI down to $106. It double-bottomed there overnight last night. IF it can charge higher here and move UP through $109, it looks certain to head back toward $111 and, from there, $114. At least we here in Turd's World can exchange some of our PM profits for fiat and then drive over to the local gas station and trade fiat for unleaded. The uninitiated have no such luxury.

And the POSX is soon going to have a "moment of truth". It will either swing back higher off of the 75 level later this week or the bottom's going to drop out. It will then head to 74 and even 72. Therefore, when the moment arrives, be on the lookout for renewed PIIG concerns etc to be played up in the global financial media. Anything and everything will be done/said to hold on for another day or week.

OK, that's it. Its almost 3:00 EDT and I've got a last in gold of 1495 and silver is 43.78.
Keep the faith! TF

264 comments:

They are sitting on $1,500 like their lives depend on it. In a way, they do. Don't count $44 out yet although if the recent history is any indication, we'll get our Asian pullback and then cross $44 tomorrow.

Ag is solidly above SLW at this point and I'm liking it for contrarian reasons.How much longer can it actually stay below it's underlying asset when it's been leveraged to Ag forever it seems? Not for very long.The key for SLW will be the qtrly. report in the beginning of May.There is no reason to believe that their revenue's/profits won't be eye bulging. I'm eager to see how this plays out.If we're lucky, Ag will just keep going much higher and SLW will respond to that Ag rise before the report comes out. Either way, I'm feeling good about it.

Silver down 2 SEK a coin from yesterday here in Sweden.So good to keep in mind if people tell you, it is due a correction. It´s cheaper here today, so a buying dip opportunity here, albeit small. probably the same in many countries. Us markets are not the only market anymore.Long term, ofc, silver goes up against all fiat crap.

SSK...That would be sweet. It's overdue. I'm counting/hoping my prediction last week happens.If I'm off a week and it takes the qtrly. report to propel it, then so be it. I don't really care, because I know it's going to happen soon.

At some point most of these miners are going to just spring and the wait and anguish will have been worth it.Riding a tired racehorse and waiting for it to catch it's breath will be worth it for all of you out there.

44.06 on the May contract! When do we get our short term blowoff top? I'm looking for that magical six dollar up day. I'll settle for 50 regardless (good place to take some profits and I have faith we will get there on this run).

what did you said SilverisKing about $44?....Turd said about $45, which is true, expect a little correction once $45 is reach, then the run to $50-$54...and then we all are expecting what Bernanke will say on April 27 and debt ceiling...

Your discussions of old coins has been fascinating and enlightening; I wonder if the junk silver will make a come-back? I have used silver quarters and silver dollars as currency - and I'm not talking back when gas or smokes were both at two bits, though that was the cost when I learned to drive. I just bought two new books from a Constitutional scholar: one silver [proof] quarter each... And there's a pro (won't go into it) who is glad to get a dollar an hour. If it's a Morgan or Peace.

Listen to the Turd. Turd is the word.

Ol' Michael"...paper is paper..."

P.S. Think I'll be getting my feet wet again next week. Thanks to all you who clearly realise that the trend is your friend and are willing to share in how to play it. TNX

The end of the Keynesian experiment is near and as dear Santa recently said we should be prepared at all levels, including food and shelter etc. I believe strongly in our ability to recover although there is some tough slugging ahead.

Recently came across a whistle blower, Lauren Moret, geo-scientist who worked in several nuclear facilities and who has some very important information to share about food supply and Fukushima. It's not for the faint of heart. It's for those in the matrix who want the red pill. Sufficient warning but terrific information for those of interest. The second video is the one I recommend, starts off slow, but very long video and well worth the watch.

Has anybody else noticed the action in gold around all option expiration periods this year. Gold puts in a low the day after each option expiration day this year to date. April 27 is the day after May option expiration. That date coincides with Bernanke's speech. I will be buying more if they try anything cute. Thoughts or comments appreciated.

I thought we would cut through $44 earlier today (see previous thread) but it looked like they were protecting $44 (like $1,500) so I began to feel a bit less certain. Either way, my main concern as the week progresses is OPEX next week and people selling positions early on Thursday before the long weekend. Tomorrow should be a good one.

Wow - well that is half of Turd's call done - now on to the other half!

HaveFaith - welcome.

dmon - quick research and a tip of the hat to you and Robert, especially. I don't know why I have been slow to move on this, but just moved another 25k into paper gold from cash, but this time into CEF.A. - Maybe in the nick of time!!!

And Robert - I am trying to convert the young assistant in our broker's office and with the help of your spreadsheet I sounded like a freakin' genius. He was most impressed - never even heard of CEF before, etc. Unbelievable - I don't know what they teach these guys in investment school but it sure doesn't have much to do with precious metals - but I quoted him prices and %premium to nav like I was born to it. Thanks again.

1) With physical silver, NO. Ratio hit 34:1 today. I track the ratio daily on my "spreadsheet of life" and it's fallen from 40:1 to 34:1 VERY quickly. If historical ratio is 16:1, I'm still hanging on to my physical silver in physical silver for now.

2) With "paper silver," NO. Because of the ratio mentioned above, I'm still trading AGQ and the like, but skimming my profits to buy and outift land/prepare for hard times.

When the ratio gets to between 25-20:1, I will start to rapidly exit everything paper into a mix of gold and raw land with resources on it.

Ways to own PMs- Physical Bullion - I prefer accumulating one ounce sovereign coins these days - now that I have a good stash - every so often works for me.- Bullion Storage Equities - Central Fund of Canada (CEF), or Sprott PSLV. Next in security to holding the bullion yourself.- EFT 's- SLV, GLD, - not my favorite allocation - a bit doubtful that there is physical bullion backing these up, but the newbie's congregate here and is paying off so far. - PM Mutual Funds - like TGLD - diversified, holds mostly the big boy PM companies and some physical bullion - slow and steady, although this fund returned 24% last year.- Large Cap Miners - Not too enthused, but have a small allocation in them.- Junior Miners - A large part of my holdings - have about 25-30 companies, some I have had for two years, others 2 weeks. Have several 4-6 baggers and a a few have been gobbled up by the larger ones. Looks like Extorre is the next one to go much higher.Options - I am learning more and starting to dabble in these now.

Most important to me is to have trailing stop losses Good Til Cancelled in place with healthy percentage distance so I do not get whipsawed out on a given one or two day period. Obviously, there is no set formula for your allocation, other than your own comfort level.

Trying to learn as I go along here, hopefully someone can answer my question. I purchased some SLV May $46 call options today, when do these expire. Personally, I thought they would expire on May 21 as of now I'm not sure as of the latest I can sell these calls. Any help appreciated.

If this is a short squeeze....every chart of every other short squeeze I've seen ...the stock falls back down. Should I buy more physical or 'wait for the "stock"...ie. silver" to blow off on this short squeeze and come back down? I mean, we're ridiculously over the moving averages at this point.

Ok. I may sound naive but did anyone know that a person with "US residence" (I am not just talking citizenship or legal permanent residence here, I am talking anyone who resides in US, even illegally) is not allowed to open a brokerage account in Canada ??? I just got off the phone with an agent at one of them and thats what he told me. He said SEC prohibits it. Wow. Speaking of establishing capital controls.

Selfish Man, following your comment, I will ask again: does anyone know, whether there are some restrictions for foreigners in the US to have a trading account with for example forex.Also is the site your broker, sorry, this must be a very basic questions, but I am a first grader in trading.Thanks!

xty, the idea of tracking the NAVs can be useful for trading out when the premium gets high to a different vehicle like gld, if your comfortable with that, and then getting back in when the NAV crumbles again.

Eric, thats not going to work, I'm going to need your social, drivers license, and home address to go along with your portfolio and specific weightings.

On a percentage basis, my math says it is better to hold physical silver, than physical gold. For example, physical silver at $44/oz., if it gets to $50, which seems likely in the near term, then the percentage gain is 13.6%. Gold, on the other hand, at $1,500 needs to gain $204/oz.

So, in the long run, in the next week, am I better off getting another monster box of silver (500 ozs.) or getting 14 gold eagles?

Omfg :). This is much more bullish than even I would have believed. I predicted a (at least a temporary) smackdown for this week, but seeing the trading action I think that could already have been it yesterday.

My 'plan' is to just slowly start to get more physical gold and right the balance that way. I don't foresee ever swapping any physical I already have in my sweaty little hands. Eric has got me fascinated with coins now, so I am going to try to add to my physical in a more fun way, and gold coins are somehow just nicer than silver.

I was thinking about the high premium on PSLV vs SLv issue, and decided that the Sprott price more accurately reflects the true price of silver, just as you pay a premium over spot to get your bars. I think people buy and hold Sprott more, and trade SLV more. just a theory.

"The government today announced that it is changing its emblem from an eagle to a condom because it more accurately reflects the government's political stance. A condom stands up to inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security while you're actually being screwed."

This isn't my quote but it was posted to me today and I found it funny/relevant to the current audience.

"But I am a stay-at-home mum, but 2 of my 3 children are off at university, and I have a serious aversion to actual work apparently. So my only hope of avoiding gainful employment is to make a pile of money managing our money correctly."

Wait xty, were you talking about you? Or about me? Ok, I'm a dad, but I only really "work" for 3 months during tax season. Then I'm stay at home too, and one of my two is in college as well. Spooky parallels.

CA Lawyer...percentage wise, silver. But it's win-win situation you have on your hands.Depends on the ratio your trying to keep between Au and Ag also I guess.Nice problem to have to consider.How about flipping a gold or silver coin and going best out of 7?

I promised myself I would no longer trade in and out of silver, but dang these silver miners are killing me. There’s euphoria galore surrounding silver as it bulls along higher and higher, while my EXK, GPL, and until midday today, SLW take a collective yawn at what happening.

Atlee, DPH, SSK, chin music and others who I failed to realize are astute investors, can you shed light on why this is happening?

It seems I am constantly busy and rarely take time to post anything, but I read nearly every comment. After today I couldn't help myself, I must say it is time for all of us to "Feed The Turd"!! Many of us have been here since the beginning and most since Turd's Bottom.

I'm just an ex-college football player who was dropped on his head as baby and dumber than a box of rocks...yet even I've made a shit load of money since January 21, the day of Turd's Bottom. I am however smart enough to know when it's time to "Feed The Turd".

A little bit from everyone will go a long way towards construction of the new playground Turd is building for us.

@California Lawyer-If you want to buy a monster box, good luck.If you're around my area, you'll be unable to locate a monster box. There are only a few suppliers, and I certainly won't post it here.Good luck getting your ASE's.

his looks worthy of a little study....http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/18_Faros_Trading_-_Weekly_Poll__Bank_Positions_in_Currencies.html

The Faros Weekly Position Poll is the only volume-weighted bank poll of how the market is positioned in a selection of currency pairs. A significant number of both U.S. and international banks participate in the poll. In order for the poll to more accurately reflect the market, each bank’s answers are weighted according to its share of global daily volume, based on the 2010 Euromoney FX survey. The poll is on a scale of -5 to +5, with -5 being very short, +5 very long. The total is weighted 50% macro short term, 25% macro medium term, and 25% real money. The table below reflects the week over week change. One ‘+’ is a change of 0.5 - 1 point, ‘++’ is a change of 1 – 2 points, ‘+++’ is a change of 2 – 3 points, etc.

Robert - yes, I am getting my nerve up to at least move things around, if not exactly trade them. It may sound silly, but I grew up in a debt-free household, and you bought things when you could afford them and hoped they would appreciate. So that was my model, and my few forays into the stock market in the past were not so successful, shall we say. I learned about naked shorting the hard way. But the silver story so to speak was very compelling and luckily my hubby caught on around $18, and then I ran with it. But again. not so much as a trader, more of a hoarder (would explain my house!). But cash doing nothing, etc., has got me finally going. So 25k last week into PHY.U and another 25 today into CEF.A. And now that I see the light, I would certainly trade those to take advantage of the premiums.

If you want to see how the deck is stacked look at the blood sucking bankers at the top. Jovil

Jovil,

The bankers at the top are not pure capitalist,, we here who own PM'S own capital, we invest in pure real capital, real money, and we protect our private property wealth with real money.

The bankers are monopoly capitalist and fascist. They merge with the government by lending it paper debt money and thereby control not only capital but you and I with their socialist legislation to transfer even more wealth to them. The government then invest in the fortune 500 companies including the largest banks using government retirement accounts to conceal their investments . See cafr1.com.

Capitalism, is simply the extension of a people who are sovereign and free with absolute individual rights protected by the government whose sole purpose is to preserve those sovereign rights. In such a system, which we started out being, each individual is literally a king in the fullest meaning of the term. In such a system the wealth is really distributed as well as the power among the most people when gold and silver are the circulating only lawful money.

California, First figure out if it's for the long run or next week : ), For the long run myself I'd rather own the gold at this point, IMO the default/devaluation race goes to gold, the QE race goes to silver so own both but I prefer less volatility. I'm 60au/40ag. Good luck from another helicopter pilot/EMS.

I was becoming concerned that it was not only not staying ahead of Ag but not even staying even. I was thinking the San Dimas strike and the CEO abruptly leaving was having a negative impact on the share price. No doubt they have been a factor. However, I'm more convinced this stock has become a favorite hedge for the big boys. It's a good illustration of owning physical over paper.

Today it looks like it might be breaking loose and hopefully it'll run hard the next few days to catch up with Ag. Meantime I'm holding at least thru earnings, which should be spectacular.

As I understand it, the GPL deal is done. Stock fully diluted. Company now more capitalized. Which is a good thing for a small miner. I don't have an explanation for GPL's performance today. It appears lumped in a basket with other miners like PAAS, NG, TRE, HMY which simply cannot shake their funk. I can assure you that big hedge funds have targeted these laggards and yoked them to their hedging bets. I've given up trying to play junior miners like TRE. They've been beat down so long, they've forgotten how to get up.

You're right, found the SEC filing saying the dilution is completed. So we'll chalk up GPL to the annoying miner-funk. These non-fundamental factors holding down some of these prices can't win forever, right?.......Right???

I'm suspect of SLW until we breakthrough 47 again. I think SLW's chart looks medium shitty at the moment. The CEO's departure doesn't make any sense (unless his hints at hedging silver at $50 got him defenstered from the corporate headquarters in Vancouver). So yeah, that ain't positive. SLW's achilles heel has always been guaranteeing delivery. And while they own no mines, they are beholden to miners all over the planet. Like in Peru where a Chavista is gonna take over. Something tells me this new Peruvian Prez isn't going to take kindly to the sweet deal SLW brokered way back when the silver price was $15. All that said, at $44 silver, SLW ought to be making a goddamn killing.

Orko Silver broke out today (congrats to longer term holders, just jumped in recently), and for the second time in a row my portfolio went green in the last hour. Whether it is the fact that metals are going up un-impeded during this time or people positioning themselves for a potential gap up the next morning, I am not sure. However, I mentioned to my brother I would rather start down and end positive rather than the other way around...

On a side note, made a quick little note about Japan and putting things in perspective.http://thehardrightedge.com/lesson-in-humility/

Okay now seriously to reading...

P.S.GPL Board has a hunch shorts are playing the role of market maker with the share price.http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=gpr&t=list

lol, i have got to be the worst trader on the planet, i've never shorted PMs in this bull market and i've lost 50k in life savings and am now 30k in credit card debt, my brain is upside down, i was told by a psychic I wouldn't be able to make money gambling, even if it was "a sure thing", apparently I'm supposed to do something more useful with my life than sit around in my pants 14 hrs a day watching charts and ignoring my loved ones, well hell to the other side i thought, i'll show them, I can do anything i want, don't dare try and limit me. So now, at the end of my credit limit, I suppose it's time to jump off a rooftop and take it up with the real powers that be... (I'm joking, i'd never take my life over gambling debts, I plan on selling crack to kids and robbing old ladies for the next 10 years)

Well now, we have pierced both the 1500 and 44 levels in gold and silver. How many times will it be beat back before it clears and holds above those levels. Will it be next week or do we have to wait for May? Options Expiry week next week you know. We all will be sitting on the edges of our seats. Surely you don't think Blythe and her monkeys are going to put up with this without a fight?

I hear ya about breaking through 47. I sold Apr 47s last month and will probably do it again after earnings. Call prices are very very favorable to buy right now but not to sell. As I understand it the lefty hasn't actually won the election yet, the runoff is June 5th, though he appears to be the favorite. If he wins, it won't be good that's for sure.

Ben Stein is down on gold. I thought this man was supposed to be smart. Sounds like he's too tied into the elite like Buffet. Said Buffet is down on gold, so he is too. What stupidity. Buffet is so tied to paper he can't promote gold. duh

Silver under 20$ I bought because everyone said under 20 will be a deal. Then everyone said buy under 30 while you still can, so I did. Silver under 40 will look like a bargain looking back I was told once more, so I bought. Nobody is telling me buy before its 50, is steam running out?, has the ship left the dock? I want to add to my physical at least once or twice more...when?

Personally, I think we are on the verge of the biggest moves yet tomorrow and Thursday. This week is not over, but it would be quite logical to expect a precious metal stagflation next week between silver option's expiring and king Bernanke speaking.

However, these are unprecedented times and trends are shifting and new ones are appearing. As Paul B. often points out, the rally on the globex is a new phenomenon that continues to hold.

I am curious how long these comex future option expiration dates keep holding the real price discovery back. Looking at gold's recent option expiration, the low put in was not as drastic as others before. Granted, the time interval was not as long, but the same time interval lies for silver... So maybe silver has just a slight pullback next week (due to the overwhelming bullishness embedded within it), before continuing upwards in the fresh new month of May.

One of these months Comex is going to have serious problems... this will not go away and nor will silver and gold's lofty prices b/c of the mere fact that as Jim Sinclair says...

The damage has already been done.Still going with ~$140 physical silver with ~$2000+ gold by end of 2011.

About the swapping, I totally understand waiting. And I am waiting with the bulk of my silver. But here's a different way of looking at the math.

Say I bought my silver in 2010 around $20 an ounce. If I can swap it today (I know, I know. too early!) for an ounce of gold, that will require 34 ounces. Ignoring any premiums for a second. That's the same AS IF I was buying gold today for $680 an ounce. Which is a helluva lot less than what I actually paid for a lot of gold in 2010. So, still not a bad deal at all, even though we'll do much better in the future at a lower GSR.

Actually, if they let gold/silver run up, they will be able to smack them down next week (as silver will be way over-extended). If they keep them down this week, there will be tremendous upside pressure next week. Pick your poison cartel.

Sometimes letting it run up is part of the strategy, but it seems like that strategy could backfire one day...

Thanks for the reply man, even though i wrote a jesty post, there was some truth in it (the losses part), and yes, massive leverage on a pullback has been my last gasp attempt plan, I've been waiting for one of Turd's "Back Up The Truck" prices to hit, but this runaway market doesn't seem to want to play. I solemnly swear to the real powers that be, let me get out of this hole that I've made for myself and I'll never go near a chart again, instead I'll start a ninja assassin school and cleanse this world of anyone bigger than me who shorted when i bought.

Simple question - if you swap silver for gold and it's not in a self-directed IRA where you might have a 1031 advantage, is it a "taxable event" no matter what or is there a legal way around taking that hit?

Eric - I saw a couple of posts that said we did, but I didn't see it either. BTW, I saw your post about being a stay at home dad - we are becoming redundant and must find some way to justify our pajama-clad lifestyle. But someone has to walk the dog! I have lived the life of Riley, and do not want it to stop.

oh and that Psychic reading bit was true as well (!! I know, major words to be had when i get over there, why couldn't they have been more explicit, as in don't daytrade Silver, rather than all this cryptic "sure thing" nonsense)

Even though we talk Au/Ag all day long, and just today I was talking about measuring my miners vs GDXJ as a performance benchmark, my main benchmark that I try to beat with my overall portfolio is still the S&P 500.

ERIC, thanks for tip I'll dd looks stable.Gpl dilution in my experience,existing share holders get pissed at these private placements. I know I did 4.20 set price when GPL was just hitting sride at 4.45 burns my ass, the out of the blue stuff, me heavily optioned up near front and out. any way takes60 days give or take to clear

I try to justify my off-season lack of productive employment by showing my wife how I've been managing all of our own money, and have beaten the S&P for 7 of the last 9 years. But she's not all that impressed. :(

re: Trader Dan and Jesse silver commentsI agree that today looked more like short covering that long buying. Volume seems to confirm that it's floating.

It seems natural to me that we'll get tomorrow and maybe a bit of Thursday up, and then some flatness or even deflation (neg 3-5%) off this week's highs during FOMC. Thanks afrum! As I'm trading at 50x leverage, I'll look for one or two more cheap scores tomorrow and then go to cash looking to buy a dip on Tues or Weds. If it doesn't happen, then the sun will rise again and I'll trade a new range. But yes, I'm being a bit cautious right now. Not because I have downside risk, but rather I want to have as much ammo as possible w/o drag on it to buy in deep next week.

The problem with leverage is if the price goes down far enough, you go down with it.... by not leveraging, I've ridden out some huge corrections without loosing my position and without loosing (too much) sleep. You don't have to make that 70K back in one trade, if you plan to make it back over the next 5 years, that's only 12K a year, dooable without taking on a huge leveraged position.

@DarkPurpleHaze: silver won the tosses, but I still picked up two gold eagles just to stack on my desk and remind me what is real as I wade through reams of paperwork.

@StrongSideJedi: I am a So Cal native, still here; ended up going with monster box from CMIGS.

Ready for this though? In August, 2010, CMIGS said just call in the order, and wire the money within a day or so. So I did, and the bag of junk silver showed up within a week. In February, 2011, CMIGS said call in the order, but be sure to wire the money the next morning. So I did, and the green monster box showed up in two weeks. In March, I called in an order, and they said be sure to get the money wired asap. I did and the green monster box showed up in 4 WEEKS. Today I called in to CMIGS, same guy from all of the other orders, he said call me back when you are standing in the bank ready to wire the money. So I did. I asked for delivery status, and he said no promises, THERE IS NO SILVER TO DELIVER RIGHT NOW. WE ARE DROP SHIPPING IT DIRECT FROM THE MINT. IT COULD TAKE A MONTH. So I will wait for the monster box to be delivered. It is getting crazy out there.

@SoccerDad: thanks for the insight. I am more of a risk taker in the short term, so my silver positioning is heavy on silver right now. If it does as I suspect, there will be time to transition into gold/farmland. Stay safe up there.

@Scottj88: I believe silver hits $50 before May, then tops $100 before end of 2011. Gold tops out near $2,000 best I can figure. Mid summer is going to be a wild time.

By the way, I finally figured out how to get a photo next to my name: I chose an American Silver Eagle.

Re Dan nad Jesse commentsI have the utmost respect for those 2 guys. They are my heros. That said, this is how it is supposed to feel when you get this kind of run. IF everyone were confident we would not correct, we would. I wouldn't mind a correction here one bit though. Then I wouldnt have to pay up so much for AGQ. It is getting a little expensive. If you stay out of it too long, you can't afford the same position when you have to pay up to get back in. I think it is a forgone conclusion that gold rips through 1500. That will keep us from dropping back to far on silver. Plus EVERYONE is waiting to BTFD. Just about every short position ever put on in PMs is losing money now. I know it has been said before. GLTA

kiwi- I am of your school of thought in general. While it might be nice to be making big gains in leveraged trading, it would make me panic. And when I read about people selling so they can buy back in on a dip that will be higher than the price they sell at, my brain turns into Direct's (just kidding) and I freeze up. I would rather slowly buy in, and ride out the dips than try to time it all. I am hearing what is being said about next week, but my timing usually sucks, so even with clear instructions and forewarning, I would just screw it up. I am ridiculously excited about the two St Gaudens that should be coming my way soon (two so I can jingle them together) and I did move some cash into paper gold and I suppose there is a small chance I would move it back into cash next week, but I strongly doubt it.

xty..you might want to look at the warrants...more leverage..if you don't understand how that works, have a look at the stockhouse bullboard site as they get into it...I will say that the risk with warrants is time decay but these are very long dated ..

Here we are silver five consecutive days UP. I have worked up a chart that goes back 7 1/2 months showing up days and down days. This many up days in a row is rare in the past seven months. We already had a six day run before this one of consecutive days up. This month is only equaled by September of last year. This is clear evidence that Blythe is losing control. If we have two or more up days this week consecutive, it will be a record and indicative of a profound change. I keep very extensive excel spread sheet of correlated data. Tomorrow would be an amazing day if we tacked on enough to keep silver over 44 dollars. Please, all comments welcome.

Fun day? Fun day??? This was the f***ing best trading day I had in a month! I really don't want to brag along, but I had a 400 per cent up this month with my intraday CFDs and I could not be happier.

I have to say, though, that every day I am getting a bit more nervous going long because I'm a bit afraid of a rather significant dip. But then again: We shot through 40 like it was butter melting in the sun and it seems that 50 won't be a big hurdle. Still: We need a pause at some point, don't we?

I would go 75% Gold and 25% Silver for the longer term - not sure the other folks here would agree - mostly Silver oriented posts.

Lots of reasons, take a look historically - last year Gold kicked butt and this year could be Silver's. Fundamentally, over the next few years, I think geopolitical, natural, and/or stupid-ass financial policies will create chaotic times and place more upward pressure on Gold, especially if becomes a part of a basket of currencies to replace the dollar. Check out the site of Jim Sinclair (http://jsmineset.com/) he often speaks about this issue.

Shill ... from earlier ... you do realize the ratio will eventually swing back the other way ... I only say that because I was reading where someone was going to dump all at 16:1 ... the ratio swings back and forth multiple times during a bull market ... just sayin' incase

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SSK ... I wouldn't give up on GPL yet ... check the charts ... it looks like it has formed a bullish wedge ... then check the MACD - setting up near the most recent bottom with good upside ... and last of all the sell volume is in decline (bullish) ...... anybody else have any chart interpretation on GPL ... would love to hear

I'm not sure if gold is going to break $1500 this week. I assume it will, but who knows for sure.

But whenever it happens, people should make sure they have some access to a leveraged vehicle tied tightly to the price of gold. (I.e. I don't mean a mining stock -- you know those things which go down when PMs are making highest-evers day after day.)

There is going to be a big move with (relatively) low risk. (This is MY OPINION. Money lost/gained is YOUR money lost/gained). Actually, that has been the case ever since we passed $1444. It should continue through $1521 up to $1600 in short order.

I'm not saying that gold will be more profitable than silver over the next month. I am saying that the risk/reward is better. For me, that means I can leverage with more confidence.

XTYfor every buyer there is a seller. In Commodity Futures, there is always somebody short the mkt. My pick for Thursday night's close was 45.27 and I am sticking to it. I almost took some trading profits at 44.10 but thought better of it. Maybe I should have but either way I still think $45 this week and the circumstances are perfect to get there in a blink of an eye. as Turd said, "Keep the Faith"

Thanks for the advice, I know in my heart that you are right, I just want to be able to go on holiday with my gf rather than come clean about what a fool I've been, she actually believes in me, arghhh... I thought I'd found salvation when I found Turd's blog, but I now recognise the hole I've dug is far weightier on my mind than any of the sage advice buy/sell-wise given here. A typical day in my trading mind- I see silver going up $1 and I think, that's 1000 points, if I bet $10 a point, that's $10,000 right there! I can do this, i'll be out of debt by Friday! GREED. Flipside of that A) I lose $500 and think, I can't afford to lose this, I'm already in debt and so I close out (usually only to watch it ride up the moment I do) FEAR. Flipside B) I catch a break, watch my balance go up $3000 and think, no $10,000 is my target, I'll wait, then it starts reversing, I deny in my mind, drops some more and I'm at a loss, I deny more, then I get margin call stopped out. GREED AGAIN. I like to call them GREAR & FEED. Anyway, Turd if you're reading this, please can you make a forum dedicated to this subject on your new site? I'm sure many people here have plenty of knowledge gained from painful experience escaping these twin motivators. It's so hard knowing in my heart where something is headed price-wise, only to see my brain get involved and screw the whole thing up, add to that a financially successful life path to date, and all in, a pretty humbling experience. Have even recently been thinking about moving to Manhattan, getting BM to fall in love with me and become a stay at home dad, spending her hard fought personal wealth on theme parks and spaceships, that's the kind of daydream I now find myself having...

I choose 5 pm EDT because on the kitco chart there is no, or supposed to be no trading, so I use this kitco time as my charts closing for the day, and use Net Dania opening quote at precisely 5 pm as my closing number. Comments?

Xty canadian warrants is a great web site. I have 500 slw warrants, you control the under lying shares for under half the share cost.when slw goes up a buck the warrant tracks closely .80 let say.i sold most slw shares as the warrants perform better.downside, not liquid, some warrants exercise early causing you pony up exercise price or sell the warrant

@Direct, been there, done that. Steady as she goes is the only way. When you place that bet you must think both ways. ie if it goes down 'I lose" so place your bets based on your maximum loss rather than how much you may win if it goes up. Play long term rather than winning it all in one bet. Very very high probabililty you will loose it all the way you are playing.

Thanks guys, this site shows market hours so I'm not sure who's right, but its only a small break, I'll live :)

http://www.forexmarkethours.com/

Titus,

After studying the charts for a bit,I sort of took your advice on buying around $1491, but I didn't want to sell to take profits, I'll wait until it establishes itself at 1500 and then pull the trigger or just add another position.

This demo account is seriously limited as I can't adjust my leverage (100x), and my limits and stops have to be min. 140pips!

direct having been in your shoes i can tell you what i did,, go slow don't swing for the fences every trade slowly build up as you do the fear greed will temper because your balls aren't in a sling on every trade

I was taught a lesson recently when I sold the AGQ in my trading account at 267 just before it dropped, thought I'd be brilliant and get back in lower, but because of the 3 days delay to settle, I ended up not buying back in until 282.... ouch! On the other hand, a different account that I filled with AGQ in mid-January is now up over 100%.... I think the lesson is pretty clear....so until this puppy tops, I'm just going to take the rest of my dry powder, buy some AGQ on the dip, and then ride out until the Turd screams "SELL! SELL! SELL!"

Direct-

Yeah, the temptation of big gains makes us forget about the potential big losses...I actually find the more trading I do, the more cautious I'm becoming, the less eager to jump in, the more I'm likely to wait and see if the trend is really going my way.

For a decent retirement account, I need to triple the money I have on hand. With options I guess I could do it in a year, but I could also blow it all. So I figure 3 to 4 years (assuming the world doesn't blow up before then) is an aggressive, but achievable timeframe, using the techniques I have on hand, and lets me sleep at night.

I'm riding my AGQ until the close on Thursday at which time I will probably either dump 100% of it or 75% of it depending on how things look, and then I might just keep the powder dry on those funds until we're through FOMC/OE... next week.

That's the plan for now... sure to be adjusted at least 74 times between now and Thursday, but I'm getting wayyyyy better at just letting AGQ RUN.

JohnnyLaRue and AGApe47 and all, thank you very much, I've been battling with all this internally for the past few months, haven't wanted to own up to anyone out of shame and just having your simple feedback and guidance... well, raindrops in the desert, I'm very grateful. Even though I know what I should be doing, my brain seems to have been stuck in a negative feedback loop, simple communication from the outer is what I've been missing, so thank you again, back to the path, keep the faith, is that a raid?

AvaFX was recommended by someone, so I decided to try it out first. My standing on the interface and features is neutral as I don't know yet how sophisticated of a platform I'll need but for now it's fine. I want to try another something else though just to be able to make comparisons so if any Canadians do FX/Options, would you mind sharing what platforms/brokers you find appealing?

It's true for all of us. Fear and Greed are perched on our shoulders as we trade, whispering into our ears, trying to make us make mistakes. Hopefully, as we get some painful, expensive lessons under our belts, we learn not to listen to them (as much).

Chin,- On GPL in my opinion it looks more like a kind of symmetrical triangle extending way out but the formation comes off a flag pattern with a top at 5.06 and bottom at 2.8 area. And its hugging up against the 50EMA which is still rising and it is bottoming in Histogram and oscillators. It could embrace a 2 pt. pop up if the flag works and say Gold breaks out and the miners go. Who knows? It could also fall down out of the nose of that triangle. I think it all depends on what the GDXJ does and that depends now on a Gold breakout and Oil bouncing big, just my opinion.

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About Me

"Turd Ferguson" has been involved in the securites "industry" for over 20 years. He first received his NASD licenses in June of 1990. Ultimately disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial planning", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent handle on the PM "markets". You can reach The Turd by email at tfmetalsreport@gmail.com. If you are polite and not an AGA, he will probably answer you in short order.

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All content at this website http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice (because it is, most assuredly, not), nor is it at all intended to be taken as such.

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