The senior Conservative played down the chances of a victory, even though the Prime Minister and his Cabinet have ploughed huge efforts into visiting the Hampshire constituency to campaign.

Eastleigh is the scene of a bitter by-election battle between the two Coalition parties after Chris Huhne, the former Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary, resigned after pleading guilty to perverting the course of justice. It would be embarrassing for the Liberal Democrats to lose one of their strongest seats and equally humiliating for the Conservatives to be beaten by their junior Coalition partner, which has seen support collapse over the last few years.

Tories have privately being dampening expectations of a Conservative victory for days, but their campaign was buoyed over the weekend by new figures suggesting they are slightly ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday put the Tories on 33 per cent with Lib Dems close behind on 29 per cent, UKIP on 21 per cent and Labour far behind on 13 per cent.

Most surveys have showed the Liberal Democrats are comfortably in the lead, including a Populus poll for The Times on Friday. This put the Liberal Democrats on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent, Ukip on 21 per cent and Labour on 11 per cent.

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However, the Liberal Democrats are currently embroiled in a growing sexual harrassment scandal. The party is facing claims senior figures did not act on allegations that former chief executive Lord Rennard sexually pestered staff - accusations that he strongly denies.

Nick Clegg, the deputy Prime Minister and Liberal Democrat leader, is today (Monday) expected to face questions over what exactly he know as he visits the constituency.

Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats last night claimed the gap between them is still very narrow, with Ukip coming up behind in third place and Labour trailing far behind.

One Liberal Democrat said the battle is as close "now as it's ever been". A Tory party source added: "It is tight - we will fight to the wire."

The source also said that Maria Hutchings was performing well in private polling, while there were suggestions that support for Ukip would squeeze the Labour vote.

Mr Clarke told Sky News's Murnaghan programme that he would not be shocked by a Tory loss given the ﾓdifficult problemsﾔ facing the economy.

ﾓObviously I always prefer to win by-elections. Governments donﾒt usually win by-elections, but this is an odd one because itﾒs the two coalition parties that are obviously in competition with each other, so I hope that we win Eastleigh,ﾔ he said. ﾓYou canﾒt just brush them all off and say thatﾒs just a by-election. On the other hand, if we do lose it, it can hardly be said that it is too surprising given weﾒre in midterm facing a lot of difficult problems and obviously this is regarded essentially as a conservative government. I think the policy is just the one we have to stick to."