A roadmap toward energy independence released last week by the European Commission acknowledged a sobering reality: in the short term, there is little alternative to Russian gas for much of the European continent.

The roadmap was requested by member state leaders in March at an emergency summit on the crisis in Ukraine. The Commission was asked to determine exactly where the European Union’s energy was coming from and how the amount imported from Russia could be reduced. Russia accounts for around 40% of the EU’s gas supply and the EU’s dependence is affecting its ability to respond to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

But the report will provide little comfort for member state leaders. Six EU countries import 100% of their gas from Russia: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Bulgaria. There are few obvious alternative sources of supply before next winter, but, nonetheless, the Commission called for stress tests to be carried out to determine exactly what the effect would be of a sudden shortfall in gas imports.

The Commission says that the tests should be conducted at regional or EU level by simulating a disruption of the gas supply. The aim is to check how the energy system can cope with a risk to security of supply and, on that basis, to develop emergency plans and back-up options. One option is to increase gas stocks, another is to develop emergency infrastructure to allow fuel supplies to be switched. A third is to pool parts of the existing energy security stocks held nationally.

Russia has threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine if the country does not pay bills for gas already delivered, but the Ukrainian government disputes the price it is being charged. The fear in parts of the EU is that, if Russia cuts off its supply to Ukraine, then several EU countries will be affected, as happened in 2009.

“We want strong and stable partnerships with important suppliers, but must avoid falling victim to political and commercial blackmail,” said Günther Oettinger, the European commissioner for energy, as he unveiled the roadmap. “Collectively, we need to reinforce our solidarity with more vulnerable member states.”

In the long term, the Commission recommends completion of the EU’s internal energy market and increasing gas purchases from Norway as a means of increasing the stability of energy supply. Norwegian gas company Statoil currently provides 33% of the EU’s gas needs (132 billion cubic metres). Oettinger said the EU could increase its imports from Norway by 10 billion cubic metres per year. The document also stresses the building of increased interconnections between member states and developing greater capacity for reverse gas flows through pipelines.

Environmentalists criticised the plan. Rebecca Harms, the leader of the Green group in the European Parliament, said that the EU had to roll out energy-saving and efficiency measures. Combined with home-grown renewable energy, such measures could deliver security, she suggested. Ambitious, binding EU targets were needed. “Oettinger is instead proposing to repackage the old, stuttering energy mix of gas, coal and nuclear power, with a side-dish of shale gas,” she said.

Ingrid Holmes of environmental think-tank E3G said: “Building more gas interconnectors and pipelines may look like an attractive energy security solution, but if the gas – once it arrives – is wasted in powering inefficient industrial processes or heating draughty homes, the logic starts to fall apart.”

Eurelectric, the electricity industry association, welcomed the roadmap. “An integrated EU market combined with improved interconnection is the single most important guarantee for security of supply,” said Hans ten Berge, its secretary-general. “The faster we achieve this market-based solidarity the better.”

Although there may be little the EU can do about its dependence on imported energy in the short term, there is still hope for the future. National leaders will discuss the roadmap when they meet for the European Council summit on 26 June.