March 04, 2002

So what's your draft strategy?: Do you try to move up to the first round and get that stud quarterback you'll build the franchise around (Peyton Manning) or do you take advantage of that star struck owner who's willing to give up his lower round picks for a higher choice? Then you could end up with the next Terrell Davis at a lower round cost. Or a really good "special teams" player.

I tend to have the mindset that players aren't in the first round for a reason: they're not very good. So i'm usually in favor of grabbing first rounders over a bunch of low-rounders who may or may not work out.

But, on the other hand, owillis, if a team needs some bodies for the team (Jags, Ravens, others in salary cap disorder), you need all the picks you can get. Every pick is another player coming to you cheap, and who knows how they'll actually perform in the pros? Take the best available player (not necessarily the best available athlete), and go with it.

I think it depends on who is available in the first round. If you have a decent shot at getting a stud skills player (QB, RB, WR) then my advice would be to not trade down. But if the draft isn't deemed to be stocked with such players, then trading down for more picks could really help, especially if you need linemen or tight ends or even linebackers. The Ravens jettisoned a good deal of talent, but they can't replace that with a bunch of fifth-round picks and expect to win immediately.

owillis: if they aren't in the first round, it is often because (gasp) most NFL GMs aren't very good judges of talent. Jimmy Johnson beat the Redskins a whole bunch, mainly with guys who were low-round picks. And lots of those first round studs fail, and eat salary cap room while they're at it. [See: Leaf, Ryan, who everybody thought was a sure-fire winner.] Obviously, not all first round picks are busts, and not all low-round picks are diamonds in the rough. But if you've got a skilled judge of talent doing the picking, they are at least as high a hit ratio as first-round picks, and at a lot lower impact if they're not.

If I am the Texans I trade the pick to the Patriots for Drew Bledsoe, then I sign Terry Glenn to an incentive laden contract. I then draft defense in the latter rounds, there are always sleepers on D in the late rounds.

If the Texans traded their #1 pick to the Patriots, would that be the first time the Super Bowl champs had the first pick in the draft the next year? Wouldn't that guarantee Julius Peppers as the first pick then? They obviously don't need another quarterback...