Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently. There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers. So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Salafists have been flocking to Fotouh in order to block the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi, apparently. There's a lot of bad blood between the Salafists and the Brothers. So Moussa for the secularists, Morsi for the Brotherhood, and Fotouh for Islamists that aren't in the Brotherhood.

Right, but Fotouh also seems to be making a hard push for more secular voters (like the Tahrir Square youths) who just really really hate the ruling generals and are suspicious of Moussa because he used to serve in Mubarak's government. It just seems like Fotouh is in a position where he'd have a good chance in a runoff against Moussa, and a good chance in a runoff against Morsi.

So the Salafists who are backing Fotouh are doing it because he's not Morsi. And the secular/Tahrir types are backing him because he's not Moussa. Interesting. I'd probably be for Khaled Ali if I were Egyptian, but he doesn't have a chance at all. Is he expected at least to make a strong showing?

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

Apparently, there's a new poll showing Moussa winning in a landslide against any conceivable challenger in the second round. But I don't think anyone considers the Egyptian polls reliable, so I don't know if it's worth putting any stock into.

Bold prediction: I *think* Fotouh should be able to win this on the strength of his second round coalition of voters. Though I understand first round polls are all close enough that there could be some major surprise in who goes trough to the run-off.

I think Belgian's right. If it's Fotouh v. Morsi, all the anti-Islamic Brotherhood secular vote goes to Fotouh. If it's Fotouh v. Moussa, all of the Islamic Brotherhood people reluctantly vote for the splittist Fotouh over the secular Moussa.

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

Morsi is, I gather, a very weak candidate and him getting into the second round would be surprising. Even Shafik would have a better chance, I think.

Things in Egypt don't quite work this way. Over the internet sources (Facebook, Twitter..etc) you may find that Fotouh or Hamdeen having higher chances. Although, a large portion of the electors actually don't even log onto the internet (almost 60% of Egyptian people are illiterates). And in reality, the most group that work really well to reach almost every hamlet are the MB. So while Morsi's chances don't seem that high over the internet, he is, in reality, one of the strongest candidates.

My guesses are that it will be either Morsi and Moussa or Morsi and Fotouh in the second round.

Obviously being on the ground you'll have a much sharper image of what's going on than any of us. Can I ask where in Egypt you are?

It's great to have you here. You're certainly our first Egyptian poster!

First Arab poster, too.

Heck, if Australia/NZ (duh), South America, Russia, people living in the west of immigrant ancestry, and people posting on vacation to say India or Morocco all do not count... first non-western poster.

Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally

"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya