I don't know who it will be but I'm picking that it will be none of the above. Normally a short time frame reduces the likelihood of a surprise. They've got a difficult decision not to lose many voters who like John Key. So who has a personality attractive enough to do this?

Next of the rank would be MPs like Simon Bridges. Perhaps he's a real option ... except that he closed down iPredict so I can't see what they would have picked.

I know that Bill has received a lot of praise as finance minister, but some of his performances during the 2002 election were terrible and I don't really believe in the idea of bringing back a failed leader because they have 'learnt a lot since'.

Paula Bennett would be my choice. Yes, a lot of people can't stand her, but they are mostly people who would never vote National anyway and she has that goofy carefree style of personality that has worked well for John Key.

I'm surprised Jonathan Coleman is not being touted. 50 years old, a medical doctor with vast intl experience, current minister of health and doing a good job. He's 10th on the list and seems like a smart guy who is pragmatic and has good rapport with people. Perhaps Coleman and Bennett would be a good team.

I know that Bill has received a lot of praise as finance minister, but some of his performances during the 2002 election were terrible and I don't really believe in the idea of bringing back a failed leader because they have 'learnt a lot since'.

Paula Bennett would be my choice. Yes, a lot of people can't stand her, but they are mostly people who would never vote National anyway and she has that goofy carefree style of personality that has worked well for John Key.

You are talking 15 years ago, and the world is a very different place. Also people change and learn. If that wasn't the case, then you wouldn't allow anyone out of prison.

I think it will be BE as PM, and PB as deputy. I can't really see any other likely possibilities. But BEs time is possibly limited, due to the way politics works, and he will need a successor. Joyce as DPM is a possibility, as he is a solid performer and a steady pair of hands, but it probably is time for someone different and fresher.

I am surprise Brownlie hasn't voted well, as isn't he the third in line, after Key and English?

I'm surprised Jonathan Coleman is not being touted. 50 years old, a medical doctor with vast intl experience, current minister of health and doing a good job. He's 10th on the list and seems like a smart guy who is pragmatic and has good rapport with people. Perhaps Coleman and Bennett would be a good team.

Because the PM requires a lot of charisma, energy and likability. It often isn't the best qualified that gets it. To be honest, I hadn't really even noticed this guy before, which may tell you something.

I'm surprised Jonathan Coleman is not being touted. 50 years old, a medical doctor with vast intl experience, current minister of health and doing a good job. He's 10th on the list and seems like a smart guy who is pragmatic and has good rapport with people. Perhaps Coleman and Bennett would be a good team.

Good point, have seen him speak a few times and could definitely be PM material based on that. Wouldn't be surprised to see Brownlee as deputy.