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VANCOUVER — Vancouver’s robust economy will outpace that of every other sizable Canadian city over the next few years.

A recent Conference Board of Canada report examining the health of 13 Canadian metropolitan economies credits the region’s strong manufacturing and construction activity for GDP growth that is expected “to hum along,” averaging 3.1 per cent a year between 2015 and 2019.

Vancouver is a whisker behind Toronto this year, with both cities enjoying GDP growth of 3.1 per cent.

But starting next year and over the ensuing four years, Vancouver will leave all other cities behind, with its economy expanding 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.5 per cent in 2017. Toronto’s annual growth over that time period is projected at 2.9 per cent a year.

All of which may help explain Vancouver’s red-hot housing market. People generally attribute the property rush to low interest rates and demand from foreign buyers.

But the fact is, Vancouver’s economy is in high gear, its labour market is expanding, and more Canadians are relocating here from cities with less vibrant economies. People always gravitate to places where prospects are good.

Indeed, the lone risk factor cited by the Conference Board report relates to this region’s housing market. It says, “strong job gains and faster population growth will keep demand for new housing strong.”

But, “A lower Canadian dollar could lead to stronger-than-expected foreign investment, resulting in higher demand for housing this year.”

Average personal income per capita in Vancouver, based on 2009 data, is $42,803 annually, slightly higher than the Canadian average, at $42,345. The disparity is expected to grow wider by 2019.

Within the region, Vancouverites are in fourth spot in terms of income, behind people in West Vancouver, North Vancouver and Delta.

Most regional income — 63 to 76 per cent — derives from employment earnings. West Vancouverites are the exception with less than half their taxable incomes coming from work.

The Vancouver region appears to be benefiting from the diversity that has lately come to characterize its economy, which is surely the result of Vancouver’s minimal reliance on government bureaucracy or on a single major resource industry such as petroleum.

In the manufacturing and construction sectors, Vancouver is poised to benefit from Seaspan’s $8-billion contract to build non-combat ships for the federal government, which will hit full production this year.

Other building projects slated or already underway for the region include: a New Trump International Hotel and Tower; a Telus Garden mixed-use development; a Marine Gateway development; restoration of the old stock exchange building; the addition of a casino at BC Place; a Vancouver International Airport expansion; a Port Mann water supply tunnel; and the Great Northern Way Campus.

And, of course, add to all that two million square feet of new office space and higher housing starts.

Retail trade remains the dominant employer in the region with 145,000 workers. Construction, with 104,000 workers, ranks second, followed by a category described as Food Services and Drinking Places, employing 81,500.

The jobless rate in Vancouver this year is expected to be just 5.6 per cent, against a national rate of 6.8 per cent.

Even better news: The region’s unemployment rate is forecast to dip to just 4.5 per cent by 2019. Full employment is considered to be a 5- to 5.5-per-cent jobless rate.

Consumer bankruptcies in Vancouver have been declining since 2009 when nearly 4,686 were recorded. The number was down to 2,581 last year. Business bankruptcies numbered 110, down from 182 in 2009.

Looking more broadly at the provincial economy, the Conference Board says B.C. will lead Canada this year with three-per-cent GDP growth. “The outlook for next year is bullish as well.”

The bright provincial outlook results from good prospects for mining, strength in the construction industry, and upbeat consumers.

And, “if an LNG terminal project goes ahead in the next two years, B.C.’s economy will see much stronger growth.”

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Barbara Yaffe: Vancouver leading country in economic growth, sparking ever-more demand for housing

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