Please don't start with "redefining the game" talk. This is more than likely a temporary offense as Griffin develops. The wild cat and Cam Newton were supposed to 'redefine the game' also and the NFL adapted. If Griffin is still killing the league in 3 years with this same offense then we can talk about its impact. Let's see how defenses react with more time.

I love Luck, guy is fantastic and poised.
And I saw first-hand how he played clutch in the 2nd half to rally his Colts over my Packers back in week 5.

But to me, it seems clear that RG3 is the winner of this award as of now, not close.
I actually think Russell Wilson and Luck are closer.
It isn't all about records either, nor is it all about stats. But stats, for an individual award, should carry a little more weight.

Each team is in playoff position now, except RG3 is a game out at the moment. So team records, not a lot of separation there. Remember the Colts were awful last year, but they have some good WRs there...

Passer Rating for RG3 is 104.4, Wilson is at 95.2., and Luck way down at 76.1, right behind Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Mike Vick, and Christian Ponder.

And the reason he's that low is because Luck has 17 TDs to 16 Ints. That's bad any way you want to twist it. Those are the most 2 important personal stats for a QB.

Wilson is 19-8 (although that should read 18-9).Griffin is 17-4, a better ratio RIGHT now than either Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. Only Brady's is better.

How is Luck even in the discussion here with RG3 for this award?
Does someone here really think as of now, Luck deserves it over RG3?

Delayed gratification hasn't been a part of the Robert Griffin III NFL experience. It was like a Bond flick -- things got crazy before we, the audience, even settled in when RG3 laid waste to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. Thing is, as we finish Week 13, it still hasn't gotten deliberate. The story arc has remained explosive. So in a season where rookie QBs are a huge draw, even Andrew Luck's remarkable plotline hasn't managed to outshine RG3.

But this could contain fuel for critics who believe RG3 won't age well as an NFL quarterback. Certainly not like Luck. Call it a grumpy assessment, a page from Eeyore's Quarterback Projections, but look close and there are moments, throws and hits that make even his biggest fans wonder. They make people think of other athletically gifted QBs. They make people think, "Enjoy this for what it is" because action flicks like this lack substance. And if the critic wanted to confirm those questions, he'd find some numbers to back him up.

• He'd point to Week 1, when RG3 shredded the Saints. The numbers showed dominance -- 19-26, 320 yards, a 138.9 passer rating -- but a critic would note short pass after short pass, many simply across the line of scrimmage, glorified handoffs. A critic could note that 13 weeks later, 74.6 percent of Griffin's completions this season have been less than 10 yards.

• He'd point to Week 6, when Griffin failed to get out of bounds on a scramble, and picked up a new key stat that isn't in the passer rating formula -- his first NFL concussion. What's athleticism if it gets you more involved with linebackers down the field? Is that sustainable?

• He'd then point to Week 7, when RG3 came back from that concussion and ran a season-high 13 times, including an incredible 76-yard TD run. The critic would say, "Great run, kid, but didn't last week teach you anything?" And that critic would then point out lessons not learned, because headed into this week, RG3 led all QBs with 100 run attempts, a total even the 250-plus-pound Cam Newton can't touch.

Add it up, and the critic builds his case: Great passing totals, but a penchant for thriving on the short stuff; great rushing totals, but already with a concussion in hand; a great knack for making plays, but a clear stubbornness to fall back on his legs in a league that will punish QBs who do.

The critic will thus conclude: Sure, RG3 has been incredible, but should I buy into the future?

In a word: Yes.

That's because such a case against RG3 simply doesn't hold up to a more advanced look at the tape, the numbers and the context of the situation Griffin finds himself in. It's why any critic who would claim RG3 is, say, merely a more evolved Michael Vick, is missing a guy who may become something more like Aaron Rodgers -- and isn't far off that level now.

Start with those short throws.

RG3 has thrown a high share of short passes, with 153 of his 205 completions (74.6 percent) thrown fewer than 10 yards. But he's just a tree in an NFL forest of QBs throwing short passes. Consider that Tom Brady, with a passer rating of 105.2, is throwing short at a far higher rate. Brady has thrown fewer than 10 yards on a whopping 222 of his 308 completions entering Week 13, or 81 percent, far ahead of Griffin. Matt Ryan, with perhaps the NFL's best downfield options in Julio Jones and Roddy White (as well as Tony Gonzalez), throws short 73 percent of the time, essentially the same as Griffin. Peyton Manning (74.1), Rodgers (73.4) and even Joe Flacco (70 percent) are all thriving on the short ball at a rate virtually the same as RG3.

If you claim the Redskins have RG3 pedaling in an offense built around the short throw -- quick slants, quick digs, across-the-formation shots -- then you might as well say Brady is being pushed while utilizing training wheels.

Then consider the "running QB" critique.

So far in 2013, of RG3's league-leading 100 carries, a full 63 of them were designed runs. That means through 11 games, and 367 drop backs, Griffin has actually chosen to scramble only 37 times. According to Pro Football Focus, Griffin is pressured at a somewhat scary rate of 35.1 percent of drop backs thanks to Washington's offensive line. Think of it this way: RG3 has seen pressure at an almost identical rate as Luck, and has scrambled on average about one more time per game. (Again: with 4.41 speed.) Given his ridiculous talents as a runner, the stronger case to be made is that RG3 is actually showing restraint as a runner, not too much confidence in his legs. His Run EPA is lower than even Jay Cutler's.

All of those points make the case that RG3's success does stand up to basic critiques. But there is an even greater aspect working in his favor from a long-range standpoint.

Griffin is, without overstating it, an extraordinarily accurate NFL QB. Not for his age, but for a thrower of the football, period. Evaluators will tell you that accuracy is probably the single greatest indicator of a QB's ability to succeed because it encapsulates everything. It's not just ball placement, it's timing; it's the ability to hit the right route by working through reads, throwing to the open man and, when you do, hitting him in a location that allows him to gain yards after the catch. And to even be consistently accurate, you have to do so many other things well, all starting between the ears. In baseball terms, it's the difference between control and command. Good control means you can throw strikes consistently; good command means you're painting corners and with proper depth on the pitches. RG3 has command.

According to PFF, RG3's accuracy percentage (which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and passes where the QB is hit while throwing) is at an NFL-leading 80.5 percent. The lead itself is impressive, but to put that number in context, since PFF began tracking the stat in 2008, only Rodgers has a higher rate -- 80.6 percent. In other words, RG3 through 11 games is as accurate a passer as we've seen in the NFL over a five-year period when virtually every passing record has been torched.Among rookies in that time, Ryan has the best full-season mark, at 74.6 percent. How deterministic is that number? This season, the guys directly trailing RG3 are Rodgers, Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Matt Schaub and Brady. Pretty good company.

And RG3 isn't just accurate because he's throwing short. On throws of more than 20 yards, his accuracy percentage is 52.2 percent, third highest in the NFL. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he's completed 66.7 percent of those 20-plus-yard throws, second highest in the NFL. And RG3 actually throws downfield plenty next to his peers. On intermediate throws (10-20 yards) he's completed 42 passes, more than Brady or Rodgers. This goes back to last season at Baylor, where coaches Art Briles and Phil Montgomery tinkered with his delivery on the deep ball. His 72.4 percent completion percentage last season wasn't just pure college offensive gimmickry -- his 10.7 yards per attempt led the nation.

The accuracy stands up under another level of scrutiny -- pressure. Against five or more rushers, RG3 has completed 67.4 percent of passes, a higher rate than the impossible-to-blitz Peyton Manning. His accuracy percentage under pressure is an obscene 81.9 percent, an NFL high.

Satisfied? If you aren't, remember that this is all being done within an offense not exactly teeming with weapons. We all saw the Redskins add pass-catching help in free agency, an attempt to ease the transition for their rookie, but, as Bill Barnwell notes, "Despite Washington's best efforts to spend money this offseason and procure RG3 some weapons to throw to, their receiving corps has fallen apart this year." And "If Griffin were really struggling this year, we'd be looking at his receiving corps and saying that he didn't have anything to work with."

Critics can question the sustainability of RG3. They can nod to themselves every time he takes a hit when he should have been sliding. They can rightly say he'll need to learn to get out of harm's way. But restraint is there, and short throws are in every QB plot in this league. Ultimately, pointing to RG3's legs or short throws as a potential problem is like pointing to Greg Maddux's velocity as a problem. In both cases, what each guy does best is really the most important aspect to the position: Each is really, really accurate.

Skimmed the article and it's Ok but stats can be construed to your vantage point if you want them to be. This writer was pretty objective and reasonable though so thanks for the article. He did say that RG3 played poorly against top 10 D's (which isn't true) because he played great against the Bengals and his recievers let him down in the Pitt game (ten drops in one game is a season high and one of the highest EVER).

There is so many more aspects that need to be touched upon in this discussion. Like RG3's 138 passer rating against the blitz. Is that just nonsense?

I'm on my phone so I'm not getting lengthy but there are some good discussions on footballsfuture on the topic that blows this place out of the water so I hope some check it out.

What's funny is I had a guy neg rep me because I shared what my life was like with the forum. If my normal life is a brag to you all I completely encourage you to join my pro bowl trip to hawaii fantasy league. All inclusive trip to hawaii to stay with me and my family for the winner.

Watch Luck's throws against Miami and you will see a QB making impressive throw after impressive throw. The difference between Luck and RG3 is the intermediate passing game. RG3, through no fault of his own, throws short passes (screens, slants etc) and goes deep off play action. Hey, it's working now so until someone stops it there is no reason to change. However Andrew Luck is asked to go places with the ball that I haven't seen Griffin do once.

To be as crude as possible this is the basic play the Colts ran with 3.48 left in the first quarter. It's 3rd and 3 from their own 28.

So they line up in empty with trip sets to the right. Reggie Wayne is the far left WR and he is where Luck will eventually go with the ball. There are two clear out routes, one on either side. In an ideal situation Luck will dump it off to Dwayne Allen running a shallow crossing route at the sticks. However due to a good jam and some pressure he has to look elsewhere. Next read is likely the far right WR in the flat, however that isn't there either. So after stepping up to avoid the pressure he throws a dart just over the undercutting CB and hits Wayne for a 10 yard gain.

Notice the jam on Allen as he starts his route

Now there's is pressure all around him and he does a good job of avoiding it while keeping his eyes down the field. RG3 has shown a tendancy where he would have likely turned on himself and ran from the rush.

Now finally, after avoiding pressure, Luck throws an absolute dart to Reggie Wayne on an out pattern over an undercutting CB This whole play is just damn impressive.

Now don't get me wrong, RG3 has had his fair share of impressive plays too, however this is the type of throw the best QBs can and have to make. It was very reminiscent of Roethlisberger which makes sense since the Colts are running the old Pittsburgh offense

That was a difficult throw, but I don't think Luck would have been wrong to run it since it was only three yards.
Actually in that situation I think Kyle is calling RGIII's number to convert that down with a boot keeper towards the sideline.

Congrats to Luck for completing and converting that down, but the actual decision to throw with a corner underneath that route IMO was not the best decision.
Luck tends to lock on to Wayne no matter what and in this case I don't feel like Wayne was the most open WR. I have no idea.
Just saying, I don't know if that's the first read you want your QB making. To me that's your LAST read with no other options.
But hey Luck completed the pass. No harm, no foul.

I'm curious to know how many of Luck's INTs were pass attempts to Reggie Wayne??

That was a difficult throw, but I don't think Luck would have been wrong to run it since it was only three yards.
Actually in that situation I think Kyle is calling RGIII's number to convert that down with a boot keeper towards the sideline.

Congrats to Luck for completing and converting that down, but the actual decision to throw with a corner underneath that route IMO was not the best decision.
Luck tends to lock on to Wayne no matter what and in this case I don't feel like Wayne was the most open WR. I have no idea.
Just saying, I don't know if that's the first read you want your QB making. To me that's you LAST read with no other options.
But hey Luck completed the pass. No harm, no foul.

I'm curious to know how many of Luck's INTs were pass attempts to Reggie Wayne??

I think watching the play Wayne is likely the 3rd read. Ideally it's a quick dump off to the TE crossing, but as I mentioned because of the jam the timing was completely off and the rush got there too quick. Likewise the WR going into the flat had a CB squat there too so that would have been the wrong throw. Luck had a window because Wayne had a little depth behind the CB to make the throw possible. The two streaking WRs were likely decoys, IMO, to keep the safeties occupied. But that's the benefit of being in a 3rd and manageable distance. The whole playbook is open. The safeties can't cheat up to the sticks because they can be beaten deep

Both RG111 and Luck are sure fire top 5 QB's of the future, the best will be determined by Super Bowl count. They will both go to the HOF barring injuries. Forget stats, these guys are both winners and IMO, should tie for the OROY. Picking one over the other is absurd at this point.

of course not, they've just been posting to that effect for several pages. are you not capable of reading basic english, or do you just like asking inane rhetorical questions because you think they make your post look more intelligent than it actually was?

I read about a page worth of crap which was just a back & forth about POSTERS and nothing about the QBs.
You're a mod, you fix that.

I have to ask this question to all of the wise posters here for selfish reasons:

Forget who SHOULD win it. Who WILL the voters vote ultimately choose? Can they deny Luck if/when he takes that team to the playoffs?

And a second part, in an OCD-type-of-way wouldn't it be extremely difficult for the voters to vote for Luck if he ends up with the same # of picks and TDs (or more picks than TDs) considering RGIII will likely end up with easily the greatest rookie statistical season of all time?

If the SKins run the table and finish 10-6, winning the NFCE, Robert will win.
That's unlikely to happen however.
WHat is likely is that the Colts finish with 10 wins which I think cinches the award for Luck.

Any football fan being honest would have told you before the season there was no way Andrew Luck was going to lead the Colts to the playoffs, let alone win 10 games.

If the race is close I think there's a tendency among voters to give it to the guy taken first overall.

As it stands I think this could end up being the closest OROTY vote in years.

Watch Luck's throws against Miami and you will see a QB making impressive throw after impressive throw. The difference between Luck and RG3 is the intermediate passing game. RG3, through no fault of his own, throws short passes (screens, slants etc) and goes deep off play action. Hey, it's working now so until someone stops it there is no reason to change. However Andrew Luck is asked to go places with the ball that I haven't seen Griffin do once.

To be as crude as possible this is the basic play the Colts ran with 3.48 left in the first quarter. It's 3rd and 3 from their own 28.

So they line up in empty with trip sets to the right. Reggie Wayne is the far left WR and he is where Luck will eventually go with the ball. There are two clear out routes, one on either side. In an ideal situation Luck will dump it off to Dwayne Allen running a shallow crossing route at the sticks. However due to a good jam and some pressure he has to look elsewhere. Next read is likely the far right WR in the flat, however that isn't there either. So after stepping up to avoid the pressure he throws a dart just over the undercutting CB and hits Wayne for a 10 yard gain.

Notice the jam on Allen as he starts his route

Now there's is pressure all around him and he does a good job of avoiding it while keeping his eyes down the field. RG3 has shown a tendancy where he would have likely turned on himself and ran from the rush.

Now finally, after avoiding pressure, Luck throws an absolute dart to Reggie Wayne on an out pattern over an undercutting CB This whole play is just damn impressive.

Now don't get me wrong, RG3 has had his fair share of impressive plays too, however this is the type of throw the best QBs can and have to make. It was very reminiscent of Roethlisberger which makes sense since the Colts are running the old Pittsburgh offense

Wait...are you actually watching games and basing your opinion on what you see?

I hope that the voters aren't complete retards and can add the proper context and caveats of each individuals season. I hope they realize that Luck took a completely new team to the playoffs, not last years team. I hope they realise that a lot of those 4th quarter comebacks were because of his inconsistencies. I hope they recognise how clutch RG3 has been and takes the cap hit and injuries and level of competition into consideration. And since we're talking OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR NOT OFFENSIVE TRADITIONAL POCKET PASSER OF THE YEAR I hope they are smart enough to take in all the yards (passing and rushing), TD's, efficiency, and Int's.

Remember this award is not the MVP equivalent, this is the OPOTY equivalent. That's why wins aren't much of a factor. This will boil down to who is the better offensive player not who's the most traditional QB. So with RG3's all time great numbers vs Andrew 'Fck it I'll chuck it' Luck's Romoesque season I can't imagine RG3 not winning.

Wait...are you actually watching games and basing your opinion on what you see?

He's watching one teams games, or at least a few plays and cherry picking which one to show. Notice how he didn't pick the play that he stared down Wayne for the millionth time and the DB jumped the route for the pick 6... You know how many pick 6's RG3 has had this year? You know why RG3 doesn't have a "go to guy" like Luck does Wayne? Because he throws to the open receiver no matter whether they are his first read or his 5th read. We didn't have a top level receiver for most of the season so RG3 had to spread the ball around much more than Luck did. It's no contest.. RG3 right now is better than luck in every facet of the game. The Colts as a team however are better at drawing an easier schedule and beating teams they should.

Dude, stats don't matter, watch the games.. Just don't bring up terrible throws, only the good ones.. And please for the love of god don't bring up TD:INT ratio.. It's not Lucks fault he has to pass 40 times a game... Oh wait... 25 Turnovers doesn't matter as long as you destroy crappy secondaries on your way to a "4th quarter comeback"... One that your team may not have needed if you didn't give the other team points..

Could you imagine if RG3 had a middle of the pack defense? He'd be 9-3 probably..

He's watching one teams games, or at least a few plays and cherry picking which one to show. Notice how he didn't pick the play that he stared down Wayne for the millionth time and the DB jumped the route for the pick 6... You know how many pick 6's RG3 has had this year? You know why RG3 doesn't have a "go to guy" like Luck does Wayne? Because he throws to the open receiver no matter whether they are his first read or his 5th read. We didn't have a top level receiver for most of the season so RG3 had to spread the ball around much more than Luck did. It's no contest.. RG3 right now is better than luck in every facet of the game. The Colts as a team however are better at drawing an easier schedule and beating teams they should.

Eh, I've watched quite a few of the Redskins games as well, and the reason why I picked that throw was because of all the throws I have seen Griffin make none have been as impressive as that. If you want to find one then show it in this thread. I haven't watched every single throw Griffin has made, however I have watched the Saints game, the Bucs game, the Cowboys game and the second Giants game.

And you want to bring up bad throws? RG3 has had plenty of them, but somehow, his absolutely ****** WRs have bailed him out. How about the long TD against the Saints. He threw, guess what? A one read slant, which he threw way too high only for a great catch and run by Garcon (I believe). Likewise, against the Cowboys he hit Garcon again, only this time the ball was WAY behind him, only for that ****** WR to make another great catch and run for a TD.

Oh, and by the way, I also do believe that Garcon was statistically the Colts best WR last year, even with Wayne still playing - STATZZZZZZ

And don't take this as me for some reason hating RG3. I don't have a horse in this race, and as a Pats fan surely I would be more inclined to criticise Luck???

Garcon has only played I think 3 games this season, so his impact on Robert's passing is overstated. Yes IMO Garcon can be a #1 in Shanahan's offense and he's made some great catches in limited playing tome because of injuries, but he's not the reason why RGIII's stats are so impressive.

As for that Saints throw, I give any QB credit for completing a pass just as he's about to get blown up by a rushing Dlineman, which is exactly what happened to Grif on that play.

Below is a play from the SKins preseason game against the Bills, and it's virtually the exact same throw completed by Luck that was discussed earlier.
Granted it's preseason, but it's a demonstration of the repertoire of throws most Skins fans have seen RGIII complete since he was drafted.
So when someone says they've 'never' seen RGIII throw this or that pass in a game with the same level of difficulty that Luck has, IMO it's because they haven't watched virtually all his on field snaps the way many SKins fans have.

The throw is at the 1:21 mark.

Yeah we SKins fans like to hype the guy, but it's not just blind homerism.
Robert is the real deal.

Garcon has only played I think 3 games this season, so his impact on Robert's passing is overstated. Yes IMO Garcon can be a #1 in Shanahan's offense and he's made some great catches in limited playing tome because of injuries, but he's not the reason why RGIII's stats are so impressive.

As for that Saints throw, I give any QB credit for completing a pass just as he's about to get blown up by a rushing Dlineman, which is exactly what happened to Grif on that play.

Below is a play from the SKins preseason game against the Bills, and it's virtually the exact same throw completed by Luck that was discussed earlier.
Granted it's preseason, but it's a demonstration of the repertoire of throws most Skins fans have seen RGIII complete since he was drafted.
So when someone says they've 'never' seen RGIII throw this or that pass in a game with the same level of difficulty that Luck has, IMO it's because they haven't watched virtually all his on field snaps the way many SKins fans have.

The throw is at the 1:21 mark.

Yeah we SKins fans like to hype the guy, but it's not just blind homerism.
Robert is the real deal.

I'm in work at the minute so I'll have to get a look at that later. Look, I have no issue with Redskins fans being excited about RG3, and I have no issue with guys stating a case for him being OROTY. If I was a Redskins fans I would be ridiculously excited about the potential and stability RG3 brings.

I haven't seen him make the type of throw Luck made and makes on a pretty regular basis, however that's not me stating he hasn't made them. However I see Luck make high level NFL throws in every game, whereas Griffin does it at a far lower level.

My whole argument in this thread is that Luck is asked to do more on a consistent basis, whereas to a certain extent the Redskins offense still has it's training wheels on. Bringing up specific throws and examples is a far better argument than some people (or one) spouting off about stats because they aren't created equal.

The way I look at it is like 2 gymnasts who have close to equal scores; where one is executing at a higher level but is at a lower start value, and the other isn't executing at the same level but he is attempting a more difficult routine.

Bull. He even said he threw that ball behind Garcon because that's the only place he could Put it and he trusted his guy to make a play. The Moss Throw was the only one i can recall that was ill advised.

I guarantee u Lucks recievers have bailed him out a crap load more than RG3's have. And the drops the skins make are rediculous. The ratio of passes thrown compared to the number of drops is so far skewed to RG3's favor that it's not even funny. they literally lost games for us with all their drops. I'm fully convinced that half the people on this board are brainwashed. Rg3 is better than him and Everything you are bringing up you could find 10x more mistakes Luck makes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

Eh, I've watched quite a few of the Redskins games as well, and the reason why I picked that throw was because of all the throws I have seen Griffin make none have been as impressive as that. If you want to find one then show it in this thread. I haven't watched every single throw Griffin has made, however I have watched the Saints game, the Bucs game, the Cowboys game and the second Giants game.

And you want to bring up bad throws? RG3 has had plenty of them, but somehow, his absolutely ****** WRs have bailed him out. How about the long TD against the Saints. He threw, guess what? A one read slant, which he threw way too high only for a great catch and run by Garcon (I believe). Likewise, against the Cowboys he hit Garcon again, only this time the ball was WAY behind him, only for that ****** WR to make another great catch and run for a TD.

Oh, and by the way, I also do believe that Garcon was statistically the Colts best WR last year, even with Wayne still playing - STATZZZZZZ

And don't take this as me for some reason hating RG3. I don't have a horse in this race, and as a Pats fan surely I would be more inclined to criticise Luck???