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Posted at May 21, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Listen to John Hulsman on Narendra Modi’s landslide

Listen to Alex Hickman in conversation with geopolitical analyst Dr John Hulsman on what Narendra Modi’s victory means for India, its economic outlook and the Asia-Pacific region. John explains why he believes Modi’s victory is “the single most important thing” that will happen in 2014; and discusses the consequences of rising nationalism in Asia Pacific.

For information on how to book John for your conference or client event, please contact Alex Hickman at alex@chartwellspeakers.com, or call +44 (0) 20 7792 8004.

Gurcharan Das, an expert keynote speaker on Indian economic development, recently wrote in the Financial Times that Modi needs to give India its Thatcher moment and initiate institutional reforms.

Gurcharan guides the reader through his own reasons for why he voted for Modi. After weighing the risks of choosing a “sectarian leader who might undermine secularism,” and who has also been argued to be “authoritarian,” Gurcharan “concluded that there was a greater risk in eschewing Mr Modi than in voting for him.” This follows the promises Modi made to change the way India is run, “by investing in infrastructure and skills training; cutting red tape to encourage private investment; eliminating unproductive subsidies; and tackling corruption.”

Gurcharan goes on to argue that India “is a discontented and politically troubled nation, similar in some ways to Britain in the late 1970s with high inflation, declining growth, high fiscal deficits and a government in denial. Britain yearned for a strong leader then, and in Mrs Thatcher it got one. In Mr Modi Indians, too, have chosen a strong leader.”

Posted at May 19, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Modi’s election “most significant event of 2014” argues John Hulsman

Writing for City A.M., Dr John Hulsman, a prolific foreign affairs commentator, analyses why Modi’s election is the most important political event of the year, and what this means for investors.

Having predicted Modi’s huge win and importance for over a year, John notes that Modi will be the first Indian leader to be able to form a single party government since 1984. Consequently this “amounts to nothing less than a revolution, a political sea change for the most populous democracy on earth, with huge promise for the world’s investors.”

John goes on to outline Modi’s to-do list:

Crack down on corruption, and quickly.

Renew the link of the governing with the governed.

Tame the dragon of inflation.

Most importantly, reignite India’s world-beating growth rates of the past.

As India looks to Modi to bring about economic revival, John suggests that “investors should look at India in this fashion: even given the corrupt, inefficient government of the past decade, India still managed to grow at 4.5 per cent. Imagine what it can do with more efficient, honest, pro-business people in charge?”

Posted at , by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on James Crabtree: “India looks to Modi for economic revival”

James Crabtree, Mumbai Bureau Chief of The Financial Times, warns that now comes the hard part, as a landslide win puts pressure on Modi as Indians seek economic revival.

With Modi on course to win around 336 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s parliament, and now “unencumbered by the limitations of coalition government, India now has a rare opportunity to shed its status as the laggard of major developing economies.”

James noted that progress will be awaited with particular interest among India’s heavily indebted industrial conglomerates, many of whom contributed generously to Mr Modi’s election, and will want something in return.

He goes on to argue that Modi will want to amend India’s reputation abroad too, as “anxious foreign investors want reassurances… notably on tax policy, where a spate of global businesses have become entangled in rows with revenue officials.”

Posted at May 9, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Swapan Dasgupta: “Modi is changing the nature of campaigning”

Writing in today’s Telegraph India, Swapan Dasgupta, a political columnist and public policy analyst, discussed how Narendra Modi, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate, is rewriting many of the rules governing politics, and how the nature of campaigning in India is changing.

Swapan argues that the age of mass meetings drawing lakhs (hundreds of thousands) of people was coming to an end, and that “with rising media exposure, electioneering would have to be done primarily through television.” However, Modi seems to be proving this an inaccurate trend.

Ever since Modi was anointed a candidate on September 13th 2013, he has spoken at mass rallies at over 450 places in India with average attendance approaching a lakh of people. Moreover, those who physically attended the rallies constitute a small chunk of the audience: live broadcasts have ensured that Modi actually spoke to a far larger audience. As such, Swapan contends that he is effectively combining the best of both campaigning methods.

Swapan notes that it is this use of the media as a force multiplier which has ensured that in just eight months the Gujarat chief minister has become a recognisable name all over India, including places where the BJP has no worthwhile presence. Consequently, the “2014 election will be remembered as an election where Modi rewrote many of the rules governing politics”

Posted at April 8, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on James Crabtree: “India’s BJP woos investors”

Election day #1 passed mostly without incident yesterday in India, though it is going to be a long process. James Crabtree, Mumbai Bureau Chief of the Financial Times, has written a general polling overview, focussing on the launch of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election manifesto in New Delhi yesterday.

James notes that the leader of the BJP, Narendra Modi, promised to revive Indian growth and boost foreign investment, creating the impression of being more business-friendly than the left-leaning Congress. Backed by big Indian and foreign investors, the prospect of a Modi victory has sent shares to record highs and strengthened the rupee.

Key elements of the BJP’s manifesto includes the commitment to protect the interest of small and medium retailers, promising to invest in power and transport infrastructure and the development of manufacturing, and review the country’s “outdated, complicated and even contradictory” labour laws.