Dow stumbled Easter Monday on suspense about the reopening of COVID-19 locked-down U.S. economy; Trump may not be able to reopen the country on 1st May

Trump may not be able to reopen the country before 11-18th May as the current COVID-19 parabolic curve needs minimum 8-weeks to flatten (development of natural herd immunity)

The U.S. stock market (Dow) stumbled Easter Monday in holiday-thinned trade on suspense about the reopening of the U.S. economy as Trump virtually admitted he will not be able to do that 1st May. Dow also came under stress after Trump retweeted a message that said: ‘Fire Fauci’ on Sunday. In an interview over the weekend, Fauci said that the coronavirus situation in the country ‘may have been a little bit different’ if the lockdown procedure had been imposed earlier.

But Dow also got some boost after the White House spokesman Gidley said on Monday that President Trump will not oust Dr. Fauci: This media chatter is ridiculous - President Trump is not firing Dr. Fauci who has been and remains a trusted advisor to President Trump.

For the purpose of creating conflict and confusion, some in the Fake News Media are saying that it is the Governor's decision to open up the states, not that of the President of the United States & the Federal Government. Let it be fully understood that this is incorrect... It is the decision of the President, and for many good reasons. With that being said, the Administration and I are working closely with the Governors, and this will continue. A decision by me, in conjunction with the Governors and input from others, will be made shortly!

But Trump may not be able to reopen the economy in a meaningful way until the COVID-19 active cases flattened significantly. Eventually, Trump has to follow Indian PM Modi to reopen the economy in a staggered manner under stringent social distancing protocols to keep a balance between health and wealth

On 10th Apr, Trump said in his opening remarks on daily media briefing-COVID-19: Relevant texts

Thank you very much, everybody, and good afternoon. Today is Good Friday. And this Sunday, millions of Christians celebrate Easter and the resurrection of Jesus Christ. At this holy time, we pray that God will heal the sick and comfort the heartbroken and bless our heroes. As American families look forward to Easter, we’re reminded that our story ends not in despair, but in triumph and renewal. Very appropriate, isn’t it?

Our experts are monitoring the data from every part of our country having to do with the topic that we’re here to discuss. In the midst of grief and pain, we’re seeing clear signs that our aggressive strategy is saving countless lives. Tremendous progress is being made. Although when you look at some of the numbers — I just spoke with Governor Cuomo; we had a good talk. When you look at those numbers — the numbers of death, people that have died — it’s so horrible.

Now, on the other side, you have the numbers of beds being used, we were just saying, are substantially reduced. That’s usually the sign that it’s heading in the downward curve. So, New York, we know where that is. But in the midst of all this grief and this pain, we’re seeing these signs and we’re seeing them very strongly. And a lot of that has to do with the aggressive strategy in saving so many lives. We’re saving so many lives compared to what it could have been.

So, nobody knows what the number is, but we had a number of 100,000 lives. As many as that is, it’s impossible to even think of it. And that was the low end with a tremendous amount of work and a tremendous amount of — you can call it many different things. Our people had to be extremely strong and brave to be able to put up with what they’ve put up with. But the minimum, if you did this social distancing at every other aspect — and I think I can say 90 percent, maybe even more than that, was able to do it — the minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we’ll be substantially under that number.

Hard to believe that if you had 60,000 — you could never be happy, but that’s a lot fewer than we were originally told and thinking---So they said between 100- and 220,000 lives on the minimum side, and then up to 2.2 million lives if we didn’t do anything. But it showed a just tremendous resolve by the people of this country. So we’ll see what it ends up being, but it looks like we’re headed to a number substantially below the 100,000. That would be the low mark. And I hope that bears out.

The situation in Detroit and New Orleans appears to be stabilizing. Detroit has really started to go up, and now it is stabilizing. And New Orleans is a great place; I have so many friends there. They can’t believe what’s happening, but it’s really stabilized. I spoke with the governor of Louisiana. And, as you know, we’re building them additional beds right now — the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA — and that is going to be done. And I hope they’re not going to be very well used because I think they’ve really — I don’t think they’re going to need them or certainly not very many of them. We built them a big hospital of 1,000 beds and now we’re — we’re in the midst of doing another 1,000. I don’t think they’re going to be using very many of them, and that’s a good thing.

There was a time, two weeks ago, where we said, “That’s not going to be nearly enough. We’re going to have to build more.” But we wanted to wait to see and I’m glad we waited. It just looks like they’re doing really well. Louisiana and the state of Michigan are doing, really, much better than we thought.

In Washington State, we’ve made enough progress that the governor is now able to return an Army field hospital, so we’re going to take that hospital. We don’t think we need any more hospitals. We built thousands of beds all over the country, and we think we’re probably not going to need that hospital anyway. And if we do, we’re ready to move it to a different location.

In New York, we’re seeing hospital admissions declining very substantially, as I said. And nationwide, the number of new cases per day is flattening substantially, suggesting that we are near the peak and our comprehensive strategy is working.

Over time, our guidelines to slow the spread is decreasing the rate of new cases very substantially and will result in fewer hospital admissions. And we’re seeing that; it’s incredible. I think, with no exceptions, it’s looking like it’s lower. And again, that’s because of the people doing what they had to do. Great people. And working with elected representatives and — and the doctors, the nurses, and everybody — I mean, just everybody. Everybody is so, so — has been so amazing.

With the tireless devotion of American doctors and nurses and all of the medical people, we’ve kept our fatality rate very, very low compared to other countries. My administration is closely monitoring the data on the virus’s impact on our cherished African American communities because they’ve been hit hard. And the Surgeon General will be sharing more of that information right after we’re finished here. He’ll be coming up and saying exactly what’s happening because it’s really — it’s very troublesome, I will tell you that.

Yesterday, I directed Secretary of Agriculture Sonny to — Sonny Perdue to expedite aid to American farmers. And Secretary Perdue will be using all of the tools at his disposal to develop a program — and very quickly — of at least $16 billion to provide relief for farmers, ranchers, and producers impacted by the coronavirus.

In this time of crisis, we must keep our supply chains moving from the beginning — right from the beginning to the end. And we’re committed to supporting the amazing men and women who produce supply. I did, last night, a statement on social media, and I said I have directed Secretary Sonny Perdue to expedite help to our farmers, especially to the smaller farmers who are very, very badly hurting right now. I expect Secretary Perdue to use all of the funds and authorities at his disposal to make sure that our food supply is stable and safe, and our great farmers are prosperous and continue to be prosperous.

We’re working very hard to make sure our food supply chain is sound and plentiful, but we all know that that begins with our farmers, cattlemen, ranchers, and producers. So we’re going to be working with the small farmers, the big farmers, the cattlemen, the ranchers — all of the producers. We’re going to take care of them.We’re working with them right now. We have a lot of money that was put there through our use of tariffs and other means, and we’re going to help out our farmers. And I don’t think — I tell you, I’ve been helping our farmers for a couple of years because they were targeted, as you know, by China and others. And I think they’re very grateful to what — for what we’ve done.

---In addition, we passed the largest emergency economic relief package in American history to save the U.S. economy and protect the American worker. As you know, this past week, which was four active days on the stock market — Good Friday today is not — is not included; the markets are closed. In four days, we had the biggest market increase — the stock market increase that we’ve had in 50 years. That tells you that there’s pent-up demand. That tells you they want to get back. There’s something good going to happen. I really believe that. There’s something very good going to happen. We have to get back.

So think of it: In this horrible period, this horrible, dark period where this — this monster came and worked its horrible, horrible spell over the world — 184 countries as of this morning---A hundred and eighty-four countries. We’ve done well, and I guess the market thinks we’ve done well because we hit the biggest stock market increase without one day — we’re talking four days instead of five — that we’ve had in 50 years. Fifty years. Think of that---More than 50 years, actually.

In short, the American people have launched the greatest mobilization of our society since World War Two, deploying every scientific, governmental, medical, and military resource to defeat the virus. So I want to just start then with — we’re going to answer questions later. We’ll have time. I think we have a lot of time today. A lot of people are off, as they should be---Good Friday.

Dr. Brix added:

Thank you, Mr. President, and thank you for outlining how well we are doing in a series of metro areas. What also has been encouraging, for those of you who are watching epidemic curves every day — and I’m sure you are, and lot — watching them in log phase, because that’s how epidemiologists like to look at their curves — you can see for the first time that, in the United States, we’re starting to level on the logarithmic phase, like Italy did about a week ago. And so this gives us great heart on that — not only in specific places, but we’re starting to see that change.

Obviously, a lot of that is driven by the improvement in New York City. Remember, for a long time, they were over 50 percent of our cases and 50 percent of our new cases. That has dramatically changed because of the impact of what the citizens of New York and New Jersey and across Connecticut, and now Rhode Island, are doing to really change the course of this pandemic and really change the trajectory of new cases.

We’re seeing that what many states and metro areas were — experienced as twofold and fourfold — fourfold increases that went to twofold — that now those are going to eight days between the doubling rate. Watching this every day gives us hope across these metro areas, from New York and New Jersey and all through Denver, and of course, through New Orleans.

We still see cases occurring in the Boston area and in Chicago, but their rate of increase seems to be stabilizing. And we really want to call out the work of the mayors of Baltimore and the District and Philadelphia who have really brought all of their health — health experts together and, working with their communities, are starting to really change the curves in those areas.

What we’re seeing is we’re united in social distancing, and that’s been very encouraging to all of us, and it should be encouraging to the healthcare providers that are on the frontline, many of which are serving our Americans with such dignity and respect and ensuring that everybody gets optimal care.

And as the President noted, our mortality in the United States is significantly less than many of the other countries when you correct them for our population. And that is really solely the work of our health — our frontline healthcare providers.

And so working with — you can really — hopefully you get the theme today that we are incredibly proud of our public health leaders at the city level, at the state level, at the federal level who are working together to really change the course of this pandemic, working with their citizens in their communities to make these changes and the American public who has really taken all of this to heart and stayed home. I know, last week, we really asked a lot of people in the Washington and Baltimore area to consolidate, not go out frequently to grocery stores or pharmacies. You can really see that that’s having a huge impact.

So it’s really about the encouraging signs that we see. But as encouraging as they are, we have not reached the peak. And so, every day, we need to continue to do what we did yesterday and the week before and the week before that, because that’s what, in the end, is going to take us up across the peak and down the other side.

We continue to really applaud the work of California and Washington State and Oregon. We’re learning from all three of those states, from their public health officials, about how they were able to keep the virus from ever becoming logarithmic. And I think that’s an important lesson for all of us on how they did that, what the timing was, in case we ever have to face this issue in the future.

Dr. Fauci further explained:

Thank you very much, Mr. President. So again, just keeping on the theme that Dr. Birx had mentioned, this is the end of the week — that famous week that we spoke about last weekend — in which we — what actually was predicted to happen, happened. We’re starting to see the leveling off and the coming down that Dr. Birx had mentioned.

But it’s important to remember that this is not the time to feel that since we have made such important advances in the sense of the success of the mitigation that we need to be pulling back at all. I was actually hearkened [sic] by the fact that we’ve been talking about the New York, New Jersey, New Orleans, and other areas where they have really big spikes, but there are other parts of the country, in the middle parts of the country, where they’re concerned to make sure they don’t get those spikes.

On overall situation about a further extension of corona lockdown or reopening of the economy on 1st May, Trump clarified he will ensure both health & wealth of Americans and may also listen to the doctors if they are against reopening of the U.S. economy on 1st May:

Well, I think we’re going to have it in retreat (on COVID-19)---Will it be today? No---Tomorrow? No. But it will be — at a certain point in the not-too-distant future, it will be gone.Look, I think we’re going to do both (health & wealth). We’re going to go back to work and we’re going to stay healthy. And staying healthy is also a proportion.If you look at what we’re doing, we’re looking at a date — we hope we’re going to be able to fulfill a certain date — but we’re not doing anything until we know that this country is going to be healthy. We don’t want to go back and start doing it over again, even though it would be on a smaller scale.

I listen to them (docs) about everything. I think they’re actually surprised. I have great respect for these people. All of them---You, look —And others that are working with us. I have great respect for this group. In fact, I told Tony Fauci — I said, “Why don’t you move to New York, run against AOC? You will win easily.” But he decided that he’s not going to do that, okay? I kid. By the way —

I can only say this: I have tremendous respect for these people and we’ve done very well. And when you look at us compared to others — we’re a big nation. When you look at us compared to others, when you see how we’ve taken testing from a broken system that I inherited to having the best tests that anyone has made anywhere in the world — and other countries are calling us, wanting to use our technology. I have great respect for these people.I’m never saying bad about these people.

I’m never saying bad about these people (if docs recommend not to open the economy on 1st May)-----There are two sides. Remember, there is — I know — I understand the other side of the argument very well because I look at both sides of an argument. I will listen to them very carefully though.

On the overall economic impact for COVID-19 disruption, Trump clarified he is expecting a ‘tremendous’ recovery in H2-2020, especially in Q4-2020. Trump sees last week’s mammoth rally in Dow (U.S. stock market) as a sign in support of his perception that post-COVID19 economic recovery will be ‘V’ shaped. Trump also hailed corona stimulus and reiterated Boeing/other ailing airlines will be eventually bailed out. Trump is also exploring unexpected business (export) opportunity in COVID-19 adversity (like selling of excess Ventilators, PPE to other nations who need it badly. Trump also indicated he would prefer for universal COVID-19 testing in hotspots before reopening those areas/states:

Trump said:

I think my economic advisors are interested in the third quarter and really in the fourth quarter. And I think we have a chance to do record fourth-quarter numbers because there’s a tremendous pent-up demand. And you see it this week — I mean, what reason would there be, other than faith in us and in this country? Faith in this group — and me, and our Vice President, and everybody. Governors, perhaps. You can add them to it also. What reason would that be for — in a shortened week, four days instead of five — to have the biggest stock market gain in over 50 years? So, I think that — you know, to me, there’s a sign.

Hey, look, with all we’ve been down — I mean, we’ve — we’ve never been hit — I don’t know, has this country ever been hit like this? Probably not---1917, but that was different, and it was a different time, and, frankly, Europe took the brunt of it. We didn’t, but it was a terrible time also. But, probably, never been hit like this, right?

Somebody was saying — in fact, I was speaking with Governor Cuomo about it. Because we were in New York City — a place we love, New York State — with the World Trade Center. And that was approximately 3,000 people. Well, we’ve doubled that. In this same area, we’ve doubled that — more than doubled it, substantially more. And it’s obviously going. You know, we had our highest number yesterday and the day before.

Okay. With all of this news, what would lead you to believe that we’re going to have the best stock market week — shortened week — in 50 years? Almost broke the all-time record. Do you know what that is? That’s pent-up demand. Now, that’s my opinion.

The other thing is we’re doing tremendous stimulus plans. And despite what you’re reading — you know, there’s back and forth, but we are getting along with the Democrats. They want to see something happen. We have to help our workers. We have to help our small businesses. We have to help — we have to help our restaurants. I think deductibility will be great for entertainment, restaurants, all of it.

Look, I think, with the stimulus, with the people, with what we’ve got going, with all of the things — we’re going to be meeting with the airlines over the weekend. We have a great plan for the airlines. We’ve got to keep the airlines going. You know, it’s never been a great business, but it’s a very vital business for the country.

We’re going to be meeting with Boeing. We’re going to be meeting with a lot of companies that are great companies and were great companies a short while ago. I mean, we can’t let anything happen to Boeing. It’s, you know, got so much potential. You talk about potential — can anything have more potential than that? So, we have a lot of very exciting things to take place. We have tremendous plans. We have a tremendous stimulus. And I think we have a chance to do really well.

So this quarter isn’t the quarter I’m looking at. Third-quarter, we start to think about it. And I think the fourth quarter is going to be at a level that, maybe, we haven’t seen before.

I think our country — with the stimulus, with all that we’ve been through — we’ve learned a lot. Don’t forget, we’ve learned about pandemics and epidemics. We’ve learned a tremendous amount. And with all that we’ve learned — as an example, we’re making ventilators. We have thousands of them being delivered in the very near future. We have countries calling us: “Can we have ventilators?” That would have been an unthinkable call. I’d be — I wouldn’t know what to say. They have people dying, but we needed them for ourselves. We have plenty before the surge. In New York, they need far fewer hospital rooms or far fewer hospital beds, in particular, than we thought.

And I have to say, Dr. Birx told me that four weeks ago, six weeks ago. I remember you said, “That number is too high. We don’t need that many.” And based on what she said, and others, we did what we had to do. We actually gave the maximum. We built Javits. We sent the ship in. We then made the ship COVID, because, you know, there weren’t a lot of people on the roads; you didn’t have the accidents that we thought — other unrelated accidents. There’s nobody driving. You know, normally you have a lot of car accidents. You have a lot of motorcycle accidents. You have people going to the hos- — we didn’t have that. We had almost none of it. So, a lot of things have happened.

I think we have a chance to be stronger than before. I really do. I think the stimulus is very important. What we’re doing — I think it’s very, very important.

On controversy over the WHO and a high probability of stoppage of U.S. funding, Trump indicated he may take action after the Easter. Trump also compared the WHO with the WTO and said countries like China and India are taking the advantage of ‘developing nations’ for decades. Trump basically reiterated that China should also contribute the WHO in line with the U.S.; not a mere 10% of the U.S. funding to the WHO. And despite the highest and mammoth funding to the WHO by the U.S. over the decades, the WHO is too much China centric, while ignored U.S. interest. Trump explained:

Well, we’re going to talk about the WHO next week in great detail. I didn’t want to do it today — Good Friday. I didn’t want to do it before Easter. I also didn’t want to do it before we have all the facts. But over the years, many years, we’ve been paying them from 300 to 500, and even more, million dollars a year. China has been paying them less than 40 over the years. So we’re paying them more than 10 times more than China. And they are very, very China-centric, as I said during the week---China-centric.

China always seems the to get the better of the — the argument, and I don’t like that. I really don’t like that. I don’t think that’s appropriate. I don’t think it’s fair to the American people. And, you know, I tell that to President Xi. I tell that to Dr. Tedros. I spoke to him one time. I think he’s a very nice man. I liked him. But we’re going to be talking about that next week in great detail. We’re looking at it very, very closely. We want to make sure money is properly spent.

But again, why is the United States paying $500 million a year? It’s a lot. And why is — okay? That’s a lot. And why is China paying — last year, this year — $42 million? But generally under $40 [million]. So it’s in the 30s. So we’re at 500, 452, 400, 401 — different amounts, different years. And they’re at 40, 38, 36, 35, 32, 31---

No, no. But — but you have to ask yourself that question (why now?)--- And then the answer always turns out to be in China’s favor. Well, I have the same thing with the World Trade. Isn’t it interesting? World Trade---So we have World Health and we have World Trade. So we have the World Trade Organization. And until I came along, we were losing cases — so many cases. It was ridiculous. We were always losing these cases. I mean, almost every case. And now we’re winning cases. We just won $7 billion because they know I’m not going to put up with it.

China has been — unbelievably taken advantage of us and other countries. You know, for instance, they’re considered a developing nation. I said, “Well, then make us a developing nation too.” They get big advantages because they’re a developing nation---India, a developing nation. The United States is the big developed nation. Well, we have plenty of development to do. Okay?

And now we’re winning cases because they know that if we’re not treated fairly, I’m going to pull out. Now, you never heard this before because nobody ever talked about the World Trade Organization. But the World Trade Organization has treated us very unfairly. But they know I’m not going to put up with it because all of these countries are taking advantage of the United States.

Now, in the courts and the court system, we’re not approving new judges over the last year. We’re not going to approve them. And Bob Lighthizer is working very hard on that. But we had always a minority position, meaning numbers of judges. So we’d have a minority number of judges. I said, “How do you win with a minority number of judges?” But all of a sudden, we’re winning. And the reason we’re winning is they know if they don’t treat us properly — and we won $7 billion just this very recently. And the money is pouring in. And we won other cases too. We won a lot of cases. But you know from covering it — I know you know — that the United States was taken advantage of by the World Trade Organization.

And, by the way, speaking of China: If you look at the history of China, it was only since they went into the World Trade Organization that they became a rocket ship with their economy. They were flat-lined for years and years---Frankly, for many, many decades. And it was only when they came into the World Trade Organization that they became a rocket ship because they took advantage of all there is. I’m not even blaming them. I’m saying-- how stupid were the people that stood here and allowed it to happen? But we don’t allow that to happen. And if they don’t treat us fairly, we’ll leave. But now we’re starting to win cases. How about somebody new for a change? Come on.

On the indication by some U.S. governors like in Florida to reopen schools even before 1st May on the perception that most of the kids are not vulnerable to COVID-19, Trump clarified he is the ‘king’ and his executive decision will be final, but to respect the constitution, he would prefer to wait for the actual decision of the governors in this regard and then may act. But Trump clearly indicated he is not for an early opening of kid’s school:

Well, I have a lot of confidence in Ron DeSantis (Florida Governor), a lot of faith in Ron DeSantis to make the right decision. He’s doing a great job as governor. Ron DeSantis, I had read where he’s thinking about opening up the schools earlier than the date — the end of the month. I’d have to look at the numbers.

But again, you know, I like to allow governors to make decisions without overruling them, because from a constitutional standpoint, that’s the way it should be done. If I disagreed, I would overrule a governor, and I have that right to do it. But I’d rather have them — you can call it “federalist,” you can call it “the Constitution,” but I call it “the Constitution.” I would rather have them make their decisions. But he’s made a lot of good decisions. And he hasn’t said he’s going to, but he’s thinking about it. So I’ll take a look at it.

Dr. Fauci also clarified opening schools earlier would be a risk:

Yeah, I mean, from — from pure public health issues is that, if you have a situation in which you don’t have a real good control over an outbreak and you allow children to gather together, they likely will get infected. And if they get infected, the likelihood that they will bring the infection home--So that really is a risk. I don’t know the situation at all in any detail, and I’m not specifically speaking about Florida. I’m just speaking generically about what happens when you have infections in the community, and you have a congregation of people, such as in classrooms, that that’s a risk.

On possible 2nd wave of COVID-19 even after opening up the economy and whether Trump again go for lockdown- Trump said he may do that depending on the actual scale of outbreak:

Depending on the outbreak, yeah---Depending----And that’s happened, as you know, with a couple of countries. You know what I’m doing? I’m watching other countries. In many cases, they’re ahead of us from the standpoint that it attacked them before us. It hit them first. And I’m watching what’s happening with respect to certain other countries — some of them obvious, some of them less obvious — and what they’re doing and the success that they’re having. And that’s going to play a large part of the role.

I’m also — we’re also setting up a council of very, very great doctors and business people. We’re going to be announcing it on Tuesday — of some great people. The —Beyond — this is beyond economic(task force). This is really — I call it, “The Opening Our Country Task Force” or “Opening Our Country Council,” so we don’t get it confused with Mike’s task force, which has done so great. And we’re going to have the great business leaders, great doctors. We’re going to have a great group of people.

We’ll probably do it by teleconference, because we don’t really want them traveling in, for their own purposes. I don’t think it would look good, also. But we don’t want them traveling in. So we’ll do teleconference. We did one the other day with the banks, and it was very successful — the teleconference itself. And we’ll be announcing names on Tuesday, who’s on that. And that’ll play a role. But ultimately, I have to make that decision. And then I’ll have to make a decision: Do we close a little area that’s a hotspot? I do say this, Jim: I want to get it open as soon as possible. This country was meant to be open and vibrant and great, not where people are, you know, staying in.

On corona stimulus-4 and additional $250B credit life line for SMEs, Trump clarified he is in favor of SMEs, payroll tax cut (permanent), infrastructure and healthcare stimulus in the next leg of corona stimulus (phase-4):

Yeah, 250---I’d rather have that (DNC demand of additional money for hospitals, states and cities) be in phase four. I don’t deny it; I think it’s fine. But I think it should be in phase four. And I think we should have infrastructure, and I think we should have a payroll tax moratorium, because that’s something that, over a period of time, the workers get, you know, sort of semi-immediately. It’s over that period of time. It starts immediately, but it’s over a period of time. I mean, there are a lot of people — I’m one of them — that would have liked to have seen the payroll tax cut as a permanent cut. But we should do the double-edged — meaning, business-employee payroll tax cut. So we’re talking about that.

And I’m certainly okay with helping the states and helping the hospitals. I just think — because, look, the hospitals need help; you see what they’ve gone through. And the states need help. Some states in particular need help. They need big help. I’m willing to look at that very strongly. But I like looking at it in phase four.

The 251 is actually — the plan is working out well. The banks are getting started with the distribution. They’ve taken hund- — thousands and thousands of applications. The numbers aren’t even believable, the number of applications. They’re swamped. But Bank of America and Wells Fargo, and, I guess, Citi — Citibank is just now kicking in.

And also what nobody is talking about, the commercial banks — the community banks. Everyone is talking commercial banks. The community banks are doing tremendous volumes. And they’re probably doing them faster, from what I understand. I hear the community banks, frankly, are the easiest ones in terms of getting the money out.

So the money is getting out. The applications are far beyond what we ever anticipated. And that’s what we’re — that’s why we’re going. Because this is money that goes, essentially, to the workers. We want the businesses to hold on to their workers, because once they lose the workers, they’re never opening again. It’s not going to happen.

On proposal to cut U.S. oil output by -0.25 mbps along with Mexican cut of -0.10 mbps, Trump said:

Well, there’s no real cost because we’re agreeing to produce a little bit less. So, number one, it’s staying in the ground. You have it. You have it for another day. It’s actually cheaper than storing it, where you take it out and you deliver it to a massive well, like the Strategic Reserves — our National Strategic Reserves where it has to be brought there. And that’s, you know, an expensive process in itself.

But oil is getting to a point where, I mean, there are some areas — some people would say the water is more valuable than the oil.You never thought you’re going to see that.You never thought having covered — I know you cover it — you never thought you’d be seeing oil at $20 a barrel, but how about $10 a barrel? That, you never thought you’d see.

So we are looking at it very strongly. There is no real cost. I was helping Mex- — I want to help Mexico out. We have a great relationship with Mexico, a great relationship with the President. I really like him a lot. He’s been terrific to us on the border because he stopped — he stopped — you don’t see the caravans coming up anymore. You don’t see all the problems. When I took office, it was unbelievable what was going on.

And they are really — they have been helping us a lot, and we’ve been helping them a lot. You know, they make product for us, they sell it to us, and it’s fine. It’s a good relationship. It’s — and sometimes it’s a great relationship. So, he could not have done any more than that. And I think there were political reasons for that — for him — that other — other nations don’t have. They don’t have that. You know, the nations that we’re talking about — the 22 other nations that we’re talking about — they just don’t have that problem.

So, it doesn’t cost us anything, and yet it’s very valuable. We will be reimbursed in the future — maybe in the near future, maybe in the more distant future. But we’ll be reimbursed by Mexico in a certain way, and it’ll be fine. But we get Mexico over the hump. Now with all of that being said, that doesn’t mean the deal is going to happen anyway, because they still have a lot of different states. But this was one of the stumbling blocks. Okay?

Trump was again asked about China-Trump reiterated:

Well, look, the way I view it is this: China has taken advantage of the United States for 30 years. Okay? I mentioned the World Trade Organization. China has taken advantage of us through that and using rules that are unfair to the United States. And they should have never been allowed — this should have never been allowed to happen.

When China joined and was allowed to join under those circumstances — the World Trade Organization — that was a very bad day for the United States because they had rules and regulations that were far different and far easier than our rules and regulations. Plus, they took advantage of them down to the last — and you know China and you studied China and you know what I mean. They took advantage of them like very few people would even think to take advantage of them. And again, they are considered — right? — a developing nation. We are not considered a developing nation. They’ve given advantages. Okay.

For many years, China has ripped off the United States. And then I came along. And right now, as you know, China is paying 25 percent, and we’ve taken in billions and billions and billions of dollars in tariffs from China. And I know a lot of the people kept saying, “Oh, no. We’re paying.” Well, we’re not paying. You know, countries are different. Not every country is China. But China would devalue their currency, and they’d also pour out money. And they, essentially, were paying most of those tariffs, not us.

And, as you know, we’ve taken in tens of billions of dollars. They targeted our farmers. But we took in so much money that I was able to give back. One year it was $12 billion. One year was $16 billion. I was able to give back our farmers the money that they were targeted — hurt. China bought $12 billion and bought $16 billion — one year, 12; one year, 16. I was able to give them back the 12, and then give them back the 16 — the farmers. And they weren’t targeted, and they’re all in business. Now we’re doing it because they got targeted in a different way.

Now, I’m going to be very interested to see you. So we signed a deal with China. And under that deal, they’re supposed to buy substantially in excess of $200 billion from us. That’s not only a farm product, but it’s also a manufacturing product, it’s lots of different things. They’re going to buy a lot. I just want to see if they live up to that deal. I know President Xi. I would say he would live up to the deal. But remember this: I never took off the tariff. It’s still 25 percent. That’s a big — 25 percent of $250 billion dollars.

So, for the first time — and you saw also — now again, I’m going before the virus hit. Because that’s sort of like — that’s like, “Let’s start all over again.” Okay? I can’t tell you that yet, because that chapter hasn’t been written yet. But go up a few weeks ago, the deficit with the United States and China was coming way down. Nobody has seen that. Nobody has ever seen that before. But the deficit has come way down. So, now we start a new chapter. And I can only tell you if a smart person is standing where I’m standing, we’re going to do very well with China. Okay?

And I think it’s — I have to also say this: I think our relationship, and having the relationship I have with China is a good thing.But for the first time, we’re benefiting instead of being the sucker that could — you know, that got taken advantage of for years---Nobody.

You know, I said to China, “How did this ever happen?” I got to know them very well. I said to the — representatives of China at the top level, you know who I’m talking about — I say, “How did this ever happen?”They looked at me and they said, “But nobody ever called us.” We didn’t have a deal. It’s not like we had a bad deal. We had worse: We didn’t have any deal at all, so they just took advantage.

Think of it: $500-billion-a-year deficit. Not — $500 million is a lot of money, right? It’s not — everyone thinks I’ve made a mistake when I say “$500 trillion.” “No, you mean $500 million.” “No, I said 500-billion-dollar-a-year deficit with China for a long time.” But it was 200. It was 300. It was 400. It was 500 — 556 billion, 507. The five-hundred-billion-dollars-plus-a-year deficit with China---Now I’m charging them tariffs.

And, you know, it’s very interesting. A lot of people that don’t want to do that — they all agreed because China has taken advantage of this country as nobody has ever taken. We have built China with the money we gave them. Now, I give them a lot of credit. Okay? I give them a lot of credit. They did it. But you know what? We made it a hell of a lot easier. We gave them a fortune.

On possible COVID-19 antibodies tests, Trump clarified none of his task force members has taken it still now as this has just developed.

On a report that Boeing is still planning layoffs despite CARES Act relief package-Trump clarified Boeing still not asked about corona relief package, Trump explained Boeing has still not asked for it and in any case, Boeing is too big to fall; it’s a systematically important company the U.S. government will do whatever it takes to save the company. Trump said:

Yeah. Well, the aid hasn’t been given yet. But they will be asking, in my opinion. They haven’t even asked yet. Boeing has not asked for aid yet. But I think they probably will. Now, at the same time, they do have to run a company. You know, this isn’t a great time to sell airplanes. Let’s not kid ourselves, okay? If you’re a businessperson---Boeing makes airplanes. They had a big problem with one, but they make the greatest airplanes. They make the best airplanes in the world. They had a problem with one.They got it too complex. It becomes so complex you have to be number one in your class at MIT to be able to fly it. It’s a mistake. Every two years, they want to make it more and more.

I mean, they had great success with the 737 — the Boeing 737. Then, all of a sudden, they do the Max. And they say, “Let’s make it more complicated. Let’s put on different engines. Let’s do this. Let’s do that.” It was not exactly a good decision---A bad decision---Very, bad — a horrible decision---Number one---human lives. And number two, horrible what’s happened to the company.

Here’s a company — from a business standpoint, it was like probably the greatest company in the world, in my opinion.I think it amounts to 1 percent of GDP. Some people say it’s half. I think it’s 1. But here’s one of the greatest companies anyway in the world---Maybe, the greatest. And boom.

Now, on top of what happened there with the two planes — and they say they have that fixed. That’s good. They say they have it fixed undisputedly.In fact, somebody said — they gave me something — I said, “You should say it that way.” They said, “Sir, this is now the safest airplane in the air.” I said — “That’s what you should say. That’s a very good statement: It’s the safest airplane in the air. That’s a very good statement. You should use it.” I said, “By the way, are you changing the name? But whether you do or not, you should use that.” But he said that. A Boeing person said to me, “It’s the safest airplane in the air.” That’s a great thing.

But we know they’re going to need help. Now, does that mean they’re going to need help, and they should keep people that they absolutely don’t need? That business is a very cyclical business, like many businesses, frankly. So that determination hasn’t been made---They have not spoken to us, yet. I think they will be. Maybe they won’t need help. That’ll be great.

Look, Boeing made so much money — who would’ve — who would’ve thought they could have made all of those planes that are parked all over the place? In many cases, I guess payment is not made. But who would have thought they could do that and they’re still a solvent company, okay? I mean what a tragic thing — happened in numerous ways, but also economically. So, when they see us, making sure that Boeing is strong again is very, very powerful and very important. And we’ll do whatever is necessary to do.

On the requirement of a COVID-19 certification or passport clarification of persons entering the U.S.- Trump said that may be an option as the U.S. would be very careful henceforth who into the country. And Trump also admitted that the world may not be the same again after COVID-19:

Well, I see a lot of — yeah. I see a lot of different things. We’re going — we have to be very careful about who comes into the country. Look, my opposition party wants to have open borders. This is a case where I’m very glad that my position is: I don’t want open borders. I want very strong borders. That includes not only on the southern border — our southern border with Mexico, and you could also say our northern border with Canada — but we want to have strong borders. And, I think, this is maybe one of the learning points. We learned something about borders. We need borders. A country needs borders to be a great country. And this is, I think, this is a great point.

On the development of herd immunity in the affected community (production of natural antibodies in recovered patients), Trump said:

Okay--- So, they have the disease and they’re better and they have the immunity now. They have — supposedly, according to what I am hearing, it could be for a long period. It could be for a lifetime. It could also be for a year or two, I’m hearing, Tony. So nobody has told me yet if it’s for a year, if it’s for two years, or if it’s for a lifetime. Like chickenpox — they say if you have chickenpox, you have immunity, they say, for a lifetime. I hope that’s true. But — but nobody has actually told me with certainty, maybe because they don’t know yet —

DR. FAUCI: We don’t know yet.

Trump: You don’t know yet---Because it’s new. You know, this came upon us. Nobody knew. We just — we’re just — they do know you have it for a period of time and it’s strong for a period of time. They don’t know — and that’s, hence the antibodies that we’re making.

Trump also said plasma therapy may an active option to treat COVID-19 patients:

I saw somebody who was really sick, and he got better — a young person, a relatively young person — 35 and physically fit, you know. And he — he got better. He made it. Barely, but he made it. The first thing that he did when he was better is, “I want to give — I want to give whatever I can give to help other people because nobody should go through it.” It’s tough — it’s a tough thing. So we don’t know yet how long — if you’d like to add anything to that. But we don’t know yet. Is it a year? It will be a year. But is it more than a year?--And only time is going to tell. Okay? Thank you.

On the formation of the ‘Open the country’ task force, Trump clarified he would like to have Governors on both Democrats and Republican states (important for COVID-19) into the task force to reopen the country:

Yeah, I think so. I think we’re going to put some governors. I’ve gained great respect for governors, both Republican and Democrat. I’ve actually become friends with some of the Democrat governors that I wouldn’t have really had the privilege of getting to know.And Governor Murphy of New Jersey is a very liberal guy. I’m not. But we’ve had a great relationship--John Bel, as you know — I call him “John Bel” — John Bel Edwards. People call him “John Bel.” It’s sort of a cool name — from Louisiana. I have a very good relationship with him.

Gavin Newsom. Honestly, I think we’ve fought on every — hey, we’re fighting right now. I want automobiles to be made cheaper and safer and stronger. And — but you save three, four thousand dollars per automobile. And environmentally equal, or better, maybe. And we’re fighting on that. We’re fighting a lot of different things. We fight on the border. He wants open borders. I want — I want people to come into our country legally. But I’ve gotten very friendly with Gavin Newsom. He’s done a very good job here.

I think I’ve gotten very friendly. I mean, he’s been, I think, sort of a friend of mine for a long time. Don’t get to see him much. But Governor Cuomo of New York — we talk all the time. I told you, I spoke to him literally the last call, just before walking in here. I’ve gotten to — I’ve really developed a lot of good friendships with the governors and, including governors of (inaudible.) I think — Mike DeWine, Republican, but I think he’s done a great job in Ohio.

So, yeah, I want to put on both parties. I want to have some governors. I’m not going to have all of the governors, but I’d like to put some representative governors on the council. Yes, I would like to do that. I have. I’ve asked a couple of them. They’ve all said yes. So far, everyone said yes. I think everybody would like to be on that council. That’s a very important council.

On huge unemployment in the U.S. in the last few weeks amid COVID-19 disruptions and their plights- Trump said it’s a terrible thing, but it also makes them stronger than before:

Number one, I love them. Number two, we’re working really hard. It wasn’t their fault, what happened. Sometimes they don’t do a good job and they lose their job. That’s one thing. This is a case where we take the strongest economy in the history of the world, which is what we had. More people working in the United States, Peter, than ever before. Almost — I mean, look at the numbers: 160 million people, almost. Just short of 160.

So, we have the greatest economy we’ve ever had. And, by the way, black unemployment, Hispanic unemployment, Asian unemployment — the best numbers we’ve ever had in virtually every way. And then you get hit like this, and it’s traumatic. People that had great jobs, that went out to dinner, and they didn’t have any problems, they’d take their family, they were making good salaries, all of a sudden — you know, you use the term, “cold turkey.” It’s cold turkey. They go from that to having no money and waiting for their checks, which are being processed very rapidly. But they still — they have to go out and look for money. It’s a terrible thing. All I say is: We love them, we’re working so hard, and they’re going to be back. And I hope they’re going to be back even stronger than before.

There is a controversy, whether U.S. State governors will abide by Trump’s decision about reopening the economy/county or take their own decisions-Trump said:

Yeah. Yeah — no, it’s really — the states can do things if they want. I can override it if I want. But the national stay-at-home — just so you understand, 95 percent of the country is stay-at-home.

Like, as an example, I was speaking with the great governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, the other day. He has a stay-at-home. A lot of people didn’t even know it, but he had a stay-at-home. Some people reported Texas wasn’t. He had a very strong — actually, a very strong stay-at-home. Ninety-five to ninety-six percent in South Carolina, as you know, has it, which at one point, a week ago, they didn’t have. South Carolina — another great governor — McMaster---

No, 95 percent of the country is covered. Now, the states that aren’t---and again, constitutionally, from a federalist standpoint, if I thought there was a problem, if I saw a state with a problem, I would absolutely demand it---But they’re doing great---And the states that aren’t are states that have not had a big problem.

Yeah, I have — I have great authority if I want to use it. I would rather have the states use it. I would rather —And this is so shocking for me. A lot of people are saying, “Wow, he’s really very reasoned, isn’t he?” A lot of people are shocked. They think I do a — I have absolute authority to use it. But, so far, our relationship with governors and the job they’re doing, I haven’t had to do it. Would I do it if I saw a state that was out of control and they didn’t have the stay-at-home policy? I would do it in a heartbeat. It’s a very big decision---I don’t know that I’ve had a bigger decision than that when you think. Right?

I mean, think of that decision. Somebody said, “It’s totally up to the President.” I saw it this morning. It’s totally up — and it is. I don’t know that I’ve had a bigger decision. But I’m going to surround myself with the greatest minds. Not only the greatest minds but the greatest minds in numerous different businesses, including the business of politics and reason. And we’re going to make a decision, and hopefully, it’s going to be the right decision. I will say this: I want to get it open as soon as we can. We have to get our country open, Jeff.

The metrics (for reopening) right here--- (Points to head.) That’s my metric. That’s all I can do. I can listen to 35 people. In the end, I got to make a decision.And I didn’t think of it until yesterday. I said, “You know, this is a big decision.” But I want to be guided. I’m going to be guided by them. I’m going to be guided by our Vice President. I’m going to make a decision based on a lot of different opinions. Some will maybe disagree, and some I’d love to see it where they don’t disagree.

Will there be risks? There’s always going to be a risk that something can flare-up. There’s always going to — look, look at what’s happening where countries are trying to get open and there’s a flare-up and they’ll go. But I’d like the flare-up to be very localized so that we can control it from a local standpoint without having to close. It’s — it’s — there’s always a risk. This is a — this is genius that we’re fighting. You know, we’re fighting this hidden enemy, which is genius. Okay? It’s genius, the way it’s attacked so many countries at so many different angles. And — I mean, you take a look at what’s going on.

And the greatest doctors in the world — I think they’re close, by the way, but they haven’t figured it out yet. Look what it’s done to some people. I mean, some people it’s grabbed, and it’s a — it’s horrible — it’s a horrible way to go if you want to know the truth. It’s a horrible — and then other people, it hardly has an impact on. We talked about it; it’s the sniffles. It’s less. They don’t even know they had anything.

And some people — I looked at New York this morning, and I look at what’s happening and the number of people that are dying and dying — violently dying. It’s — it’s a — it’s a very tough adversary. But we’re going to win, and we’re going to win it — we’re going to win it very decisively. I’m going to have to make a decision, and I only hope to God that it’s the right decision. But I would say, without question, it’s the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make.

Dr. Brix added:Okay, so there are states that didn’t stay-at-home orders but were doing contact tracing from outbreaks. So we’re looking at them and how they have done, and we’re looking at certainly what’s happened in the big metro areas. And we’re integrating all of that data together to make a plan going forward. So I can’t tell you — because of look at how much the model has changed in just a week. Remember, just a week ago it was 80,000. Now it’s 60,000. So — and the curves — I’m sure you’re all watching it — the curves are getting much broader confidence intervals.

There is still the dotted line, but the confidence intervals around the dotted line are getting bigger. When you see that, you know the model has a bit of instability, and so that’s why Tony and I base a lot of our decision and discussion on cases and what physically is happening in that county, in that state, at the same time not ignoring the models but integrating the models as one piece of our thought process.

Trump then added both sides have risks as an early reopen may cause more COVID-19 deaths and also a late reopening would cause suicides; so Trump has to take a balanced decision:

I just want to say that, you know, you talked about, “Couldn’t it lead to death,” meaning, if you open up, it could lead to death. And you’re right.But you know what? Staying at home leads to death also. And it’s very traumatic for this country. But staying at home — if you look at numbers — that leads to a different kind of death, perhaps, but it leads to death also. So it’s a very big decision. As I say, it’s the biggest decision I’ll ever make.

On holding the WHO and China responsible doe the COVID-19 global pandemic, Trump said it’s a sad thing what had happened, but he is in constant touch with China to contain the coronavirus:

Yeah, I understand the question very well. Look, nobody has done to China, or treated China as strongly as I have. I use the word “strongly.” As you know — you’ve reported on it — billions and billions of dollars are flowing into our Treasury, because of what I’ve done with China.

I think it’s a very sad thing that happened.And I think if people knew, including the World Health Organization — and I do believe they knew, but they didn’t want to tell the world. And we’re going to get to the bottom of it. And we’ll have reported on all of this. And we are — we are not happy about it, but I wanted to leave the World Health for later. And I can tell you that we’re constantly in touch with China. We’re talking to China. And we’ve expressed how we felt. We’re not happy about it. We’re not happy about it at all, Kristen.

The WHO is also against an early reopening of the economy/country without visible flattening of the COVID-19 parabolic curve (for active patients).

The WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 13 April 2020

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening. Some countries and communities have now endured several weeks of social and economic restrictions. Some countries are considering when they can lift these restrictions; others are considering whether and when to introduce them. In both cases, these decisions must be based first and foremost on protecting human health and guided by what we know about the virus and how it behaves.

Since the beginning, this has been an area of intense focus for the WHO. As we have said many times before, this is a new virus, and the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus. We’re all learning all the time and adjusting our strategy, based on the latest available evidence. We can only say what we know, and we can only act on what we know. Evidence from several countries is giving us a clearer picture of this virus, how it behaves, how to stop it and how to treat it. We know that COVID-19 spreads fast, and we know that it is deadly – 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic.

We know that the virus can spread more easily in crowded environments like nursing homes. We know that early case-finding, testing, isolating caring for every case and tracing every contact is essential for stopping transmission. We know that in some countries, cases are doubling every 3 to 4 days. However, while COVID-19 accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly. In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up. That means control measures must be lifted slowly, and with control. It cannot happen all at once.

Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including a significant capacity for contact tracing. But while some countries are considering how to ease restrictions, others are considering whether to introduce them – especially many low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In countries with large poor populations, the stay-at-home orders and other restrictions used in some high-income countries may not be practical. Many poor people, migrants and refugees are already living in overcrowded conditions with few resources and little access to health care.

How do you survive a lockdown when you depend on your daily labor to eat? News reports from around the world describe how many people are in danger of being left without access to food. Meanwhile, schools have closed for an estimated 1.4 billion children. This has halted their education, opened some to increased risk of abuse, and deprived many children of their primary source of food.

As I have said many times, physical distancing restrictions are only part of the equation, and there are many other basic public health measures that need to be put in place. We also call on all countries to ensure that where stay-at-home measures are used, they must not be at the expense of human rights. Each government must assess its situation while protecting all its citizens, and especially the most vulnerable. To support countries in making these decisions, the WHO will tomorrow be publishing its updated strategic advice.

The new strategy summarizes what we’ve learned and charts the way forward. It includes six criteria for countries as they consider lifting restrictions: First, that transmission is controlled; Second, that health system capacities are in place to detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact; Third, that outbreak risks are minimized in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes; Fourth, that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other places where it’s essential for people to go; Fifth, that importation risks can be managed; And sixth, that communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the “new norm”.

Conclusions:

Although the U.S. has 15 COVID-19 cases on 15th Feb, due to a lack of adequate mitigation measures and certain other factors, COVID-19 surged to 994 on 10th March. Thus, assuming, 10th March as the COVID-19 starting date (Phase-2), as per the China model, we should see a visible decrease in new cases (tapering) from 11th April (after 4-weeks) and a clear flattening after 8- weeks; i.e. from 11th May.

As per the general rule of NHI; i.e. production of natural antibodies against the virus happens usually after 60-70% infections in a community and after 70-90 days; i.e. it’s a cycle of 10-12 weeks. In brief, the COVID-19 curve should flatten within 8-12 weeks depending upon the severity of the community transmission and development of NHI; immunity power of the affected community and the underlying mitigation measures.

Bottom line:

Although Trump is trying his best to reopen the COVID-19 locked down U.S. economy on 1st May, it may be too early. As per the normal 8-weeks (minimum period) cycle of the development of herd immunity, Trump may need at least 11th May to take a decision to reopen the U.S. economy in a staggered manner without hotspots like NY, NJ metro areas. Thus, instead of 1st May, the U.S. economy may open after 1-more week from 11th May (to observe the actual COVID-19 curve flattening); i.e. on 18th May (Mon) in a staggered manner (except corona hotspots) with stringent social distancing protocols as being prescribed by the WHO. The NY Governor Cuomo also said Trump is not ‘king’ and his decision for an early reopening despite considerable COVID-19 risks can’t be accepted.

Technical Outlook: SPX-500, DJ-30, and NQ-100:

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2525 for a rebound to 2635*/2695-2755*/2810 and further rally to 2895/2955-3000*/3085 and 3125/3155-3185*/3285 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2515-2500, SPX-500 may further fall to 2440/2390*-2315/2275* and 2190/2150*-2040/1980* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, DJ-30 now has to sustain over 21800 for a bounce back to 22500/23500*-23900/24900 and further rally to 25200/25700-26500/26900* and 27300/27900-28300/28600* in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 21750, DJ-30 may fall to 21450/21150*-20500/20300* and 19900/19200*-18200/16900 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, NQ-100 now has to sustain above 7525 for a bounce back to 7615/7915-8000*/8150 and further rally to 8350/8475-8575/8700 and 9000*/9225-9345/9505 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 7500, NQ-100 may further fall to 7350/7245-7100/6940* and 6700/6475*-6350/6250* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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