Increased fighting between the Burma Army and the Kachin Independence
Army (KIA) since the beginning of December has nothing to do with the
ongoing protests against joint Sino-Burmese copper mine project in
Letpadaung, Sagaing Region, according to well-known Yunnan-based analyst
Aung Kyaw Zaw.

“It is just a psychological warfare to divert attention on the army’s
losses (on the Kachin front),” he said. “They want to create an
impression on the people that the Chinese, being unhappy with how things
are taking place in Letpadaung, have been working up on the Kachins to
step up their operations.”

Other likely reasons, he thought, included:

The failure of the latest round of peace talks on 30 October

Increased and sustained military pressure to fuel division between
the people and the KIA, and between the leadership and its rank and file

The army wants to conduct new negotiations from a superior position

Heavy fighting is reported in Laja Yang, west of Laiza, and Pang Wa,
north of Laiza, the KIA capital. Kachin News Group also reported
hundreds of Burmese troops moving to the Indo-Burmese border in the
west.

The Burma Army has also brought new gadgets into the picture: Mi 24 gunships and Carl Gustaf rocket launchers.

Asked how relations are between the Kachin Independence Organization /
Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA) and China, where the Kachin State
borders with Tengchong, Dehong and Baoshan, he said, “China is not
supporting any group like it did for the Communist Party of Burma (CPB).
With the Kachins, its stand is even clearer. You cannot find any ethnic
Kachins from China in the KIO leadership. They are all Burmese
Kachins.”

Moreover, refugees fleeing into China are being driven back.
“Concerning the Myitsone dam project (that was suspended by President
Thein Sein), the Chinese government is really put out with the KIA,” he
explained. “It was the KIA that lodged the first protest. There was also
a bomb blast at the (Chinese) company headquarters in Myitsone a year
ago.”

On top of that, Beijing don’t trust the Kachins for their connections
with the West which include religious ones, according to him.

With regards to the military situation, Aung Kyaw Zaw sees no sign of
the Burmese government taking any decisive action. “There are an awful
lot of units, but they are all spread out,” he said. “The casualties are
heavy and the soldiers’ fighting spirit is at the lowest ebb. It is
only their superiors who are pushing them to fight on. But the soldiers’
main concern is to return home alive.”

The Kachin conflict began with the Burma Army, citing security for
Chinese operated hydropower project, sent troops into the area
controlled by the KIA on 9 June 2011. The almost 18 month war has
displaced some 100,000 people.