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Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

Originally Posted by tbball10

dontrelle is the hype, not homer.

I like Homer and Willis, but 22 victories last season were not hype. And he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He's clearly pitching well and has shown to be a top-of-the-line major league starter. He already has 52 wins and a career 3.39 ERA at the age of 24. I hope Bailey turns out to be a great pitcher for us, but I'd be shocked if he tops Willis in career victories. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bailey doesn't top the 52 wins that Willis has now. Not the way the we've developed pitchers over the years. Nothing would surprise me. As much as it would hurt to lose Bailey, I would trade him for Willis. Definite #1 starter with a great presence. Tough combo to beat.

"....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

Willis is a #1 starter in the sense that he started on Opening Day only. That doesnt make you a #1 starter though. Dontrelle Willis is a glorified #3. He cant strike anyone out. If you arent striking guys out, you have no shot at being a #1.

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

Originally Posted by Redhook

I like Homer and Willis, but 22 victories last season were not hype. And he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He's clearly pitching well and has shown to be a top-of-the-line major league starter. He already has 52 wins and a career 3.39 ERA at the age of 24. I hope Bailey turns out to be a great pitcher for us, but I'd be shocked if he tops Willis in career victories. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bailey doesn't top the 52 wins that Willis has now. Not the way the we've developed pitchers over the years. Nothing would surprise me. As much as it would hurt to lose Bailey, I would trade him for Willis. Definite #1 starter with a great presence. Tough combo to beat.

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

Originally Posted by RedsIn07

Ahh yes wins, the perfect way too value pitching and performance...

Sorry to make you so upset.

Isn't the overall goal of baseball to win games? More quality starts, a low ERA, and a low WHIP should lead to more wins, but you never know. I know wins are sometimes inflated or sometimes don't represent how well a pitcher has pitched (EZ), but they are important. Willis' 2.63 ERA, 7 complete games, and 5 shutouts last year was outstanding. 22 wins to go with that is also outstanding.

Yes, he got off to a rough start this year, but he's pitched very well his last 10 starts. And he does have 12 quality starts in 18 games this year. He only has 6 wins this year, but could easily have 5 or 6 more. His ceiling might not be as high as Bailey's, but he is a proven major league pitcher. And a really good one at that. I'd love for him to be a Redleg, even if it takes trading Bailey.

"....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

Originally Posted by CaptainHook

For his career, Willis has averaged a very respectable 6.6 K/9IP. Greg Maddux has a career 6.2 K/9IP rate. Does this mean Maddux was a glorified #3 as well?

Outside of his first year, he has never struck out 6.6 per 9. This year he is averaging just 5.55 strikeouts per 9 innings. His rates have dropped 2.4 batters per 9 innings since 2003. That is flat out scary. Greg Maddux had his most dominant seasons between 1992 and 1998. In those years, his k/9 rate was never lower than 6.32 and was as high as 7.77. It was his first few seasons and his last few seasons that have made Madduxs numbers drop, and he wasnt nearly the pitcher during those times as he was when he was striking guys out. Maddux also didnt have a 2-1 k/bb ratio like Willis currently does. Maddux has a 3.36/1 k/bb ratio for his career.

Re: Bailey and Bruce ranked as 10th and 11th best prospects in baseball

One website ranks Bailey #22 and Votto #25(this is from lats month):

22. SP Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: Bailey was the Redsí first round pick in 2003 and it has taken a while for him to put things together. He began the season at high-A ball, where he went 3-5 in 13 starts but had a 3.31 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts in 70.2 innings.

He was then promoted to AA. Bailey has made two starts since his promotion and has thrown twelve scoreless innings and allowed just seven baserunners while striking out 13.

25. 1B Joey Votto, Reds: Votto is tearing up the AA Southern League and is among the league leaders in virtually every offensive category. He is batting .314 with 25 doubles, 15 HR, 48 RBI, and 13 stolen bases. He has a .385 on-base percentage and a .562 slugging percentage. Votto is just 22 years old and was the Redsí second round pick in 2002.

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