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The Bloomberg Equation

New York City Mayor, Michael Bloomberg has come out and said that if Bernie Sanders looks to be taking the lead over Hillary Clinton, he’s prepared to enter the race for president as an independent. Now, on the surface, you’d have to ask why in hell would he want to do that. The Democrats have to know that at best, with the two candidates they have vying for the nomination; it’s a long-shot that they’re going to win in November anyway. By Bloomberg getting into the race, he basically shuts down the whole convention process and political process. He hands the election over to the Republicans. It’d be just like if Donald Trump actually did decide to run an independent campaign. I think both are rather spurious suggestions and just floated balloons.

But what would happen if Bloomberg decided to get in. First of all, I think he’d probably take New York state, if anyone but Trump is the nominee from the Republicans but that would be about it. Michael Bloomberg has a rather inflated view of how the rest of America feels about him. Most people in America don’t know who the hell he is anyway, and fewer probably even care. If he actually did get into the race as an independent to thwart a Bernie Sanders run, I doubt it would have much of an effect. Oh, it would probably cost Sanders a few million votes, and certainly if Bloomberg won the state of New York, it would cost Sanders enough electoral votes to guarantee that he wouldn’t be elected. Democrats NEED to have both New York and California to win any presidential election these days. Without those two states backing them, you could run FDR and it wouldn’t matter.

And therein lies the crux for Michael Bloomberg. Nobody knows him, less care, and nobody outside of his home state in any appreciable numbers would vote for him. The Governor of Arizona is Doug Ducey, a nice guy who’s doing a pretty good job after just a year in office. You may know Doug as the guy that started Coldstone Creamery. But Doug isn’t presidential material any more than Rick Snyder of Michigan is…or….hmmm….I was trying to think of a rather famous Democrat governor, but I think they’ve all been defeated…OH! Jerry Brown…sure. Jerry Brown has as much chance of winning the White House as Doug Ducey or Michael Bloomberg.

Look, it’s simple. The odds are not in Democrats favor this year. History is against them. The quality of their candidates is against them, and the fact you’ve got two people that are really tied into mainstream politics, even though Sanders likes to think of himself as an outsider, it’s going to hurt them. Americans are apparently looking for new leadership. The key word in that last sentence by the way is “leadership”. Neither Sanders nor Clinton have successfully led anything in their lives. They aren’t leaders. That’s why either one of them will be defeated in November (and trust me…there are plenty on the GOP side that aren’t leaders either!).