Monday, March 04, 2013

Anonymous Source: Cano, Granderson, A-Rod and Braun will all be suspended for failing PED test this season.

— Joe Bisceglie (@joebisceglie) March 4, 2013

You’d be inclined to be skeptical, and for fair reason — Bisceglie doesn’t name his source. This kind of story is explosive, and deserves tender care before people start going on witch hunts and throwing names out there with no rationale. But consider this: Bisceglie correctly prognosticated that Melky Cabrera would be suspended last season for a failed PED test almost a month before his suspension came.

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C'mon Yankees - lets see you set a record for most suspended players in a season. Ichiro could be suspended if he wanted to be. Jeter tried but came up just short. Rivera was just doing it to get better so he could help the team. And so on.

This is pretty crazy, and I think MLB must really be panicking as to the where to go from here. As a fan, I think its pretty sad that we might have 4 superstars under suspension at the same time. I don't think giving up on testing would ever be considered, so what do you have to do? Suspend a guy for 162 games the first offense, and void his contract? I certainly don't have a clue.

Not a big fan of printing rumors like this but there would certainly be some justice in seeing Braun and Arod suspended.

As for Cano, it's been virtually expected for a long time now.

To me, Granderson will be a surprise and pretty sad. Not that taking PED's necessarily makes you any worse a person than those that don't, but I would bet that he is above this. Hopefully this part is wrong.

Not that taking PED's necessarily makes you any worse a person than those that don't, but I would bet that he is above this. Hopefully this part is wrong.

This sounds like double-talk to me. Either you think PEDs are OK and so Granderson doing them doesn't change your mind about him any or you DON'T think they're OK and so his image is now damaged in your eyes. You can't say that they don't matter to you but you would hope he was above doing them.

Odd that this coincides with the Yankees front office being singularly quiescent this past off-season. I wonder if they knew this was going to go down and decided to just give up on this year and keep their powder dry for the next.

Edinson Volquez, Padres SP, was suspended in 2010 for 50 games but was on the DL anyway. He did lose 50 games of pay, which A-Rod would notice more.

Freddie Galvis served his suspension for the Phillies on the DL last year.

Yes, but that's Edinson and Freddie, who don't matter. Can you imagine the high-pitched wailing if Arod is allowed to serve a roids suspension while on the DL. The columns demanding MLB get rid of the Rodriguez Loophole will be too numerous to count, and will really put a strain on poor Repoz.

Why would there need to be panic or an increase of penalties? What pct. of MLB (and milb) players got caught in the last 12 months? MLB can't help that the general public are a bunch of screaming ninnies, inflammed by the national media.

You are NEVER going to be able to stop the use of PEDs....I mean, maybe, life in prison. But I doubt it.

By the time all this plays out, the only upside for the Yankees is that they might actually be able to position themselves as "scrappy underdogs" for the first time since the days of Elliott Maddox and Larry Gura.

Odd that this coincides with the Yankees front office being singularly quiescent this past off-season. I wonder if they knew this was going to go down and decided to just give up on this year and keep their powder dry for the next.

It would make sense. But what's the turnaround time on these tests? The Yanks would have had to know about this early on to formulate an offseason strategy around it.

That is, of course, assuming that this isn't all just rumormongering bullshit.

Hypnotist: You will beat Shelbyville.
Team: We will beat Shelbyville.
Hypnotist: You will give 110%.
Team: That's impossible. No one can give more than 100%. By definition, that is the most anyone can give.

It's not showing up anywhere else. And this type of thing tends to show up other places.

Now, if it's like the Melky thing, I guess we find out in a month. For now, I'm very skeptical (not that they couldn't possibly be using, but of the sourcing).

Click through to read what they write about that. The guy breaking the rumor was, indeed, 100% right about Melky and long before everyone else. And he says to people "look, I get it if you want to write me off again, but just remember you read it here first when ESPN acts like it's 'breaking' this story in four weeks."

So I guess we've got four weeks to go to test the validity of this rumor!

If I was MLB and wanted to find out who was leaking this stuff then sending out this rumour via one group would sure make it obvious who the leak was.

Still, with appeals and the like odds are the tests are known a month or so before they are announced which gives a big opening for people to leak info to the press. Did anyone else leak Cabrera's test last year before it was announced?

This shouldn't have been posted. Even given that this guy has gotten one thing right in the past, it's still a completely unsubstantiated rumor at this point. If and when this is actually proven, then we can have a talk about what it means. But this? This isn't smoke. It's not even steam.

Did anyone else leak Cabrera's test last year before it was announced?

Um...yeah. This guy. A month before it was officially announced. Which is why people are paying attention to what he's saying now, and why this is being given more credit than the standard BS rumor would.

By the time all this plays out, the only upside for the Yankees is that they might actually be able to position themselves as "scrappy underdogs" for the first time since the days of Elliott Maddox and Larry Gura.

Melido Perez, Oscar Azocar, and Alvaro Espinoza may or may not fit your definition of scrappy, but they sure were underdogs. Definitely hard to look back with any affection for some of those guys though, like drunk driving killer Jim Leyritz and sex offenders Mel Hall and Luis Polonia. Certainly nobody had any illusions about that group contending for anything.

The most common response other than “wow” was something along the lines of “why should we listen to you, you have no credibility?” You guys are all right, I have no credibility. I can’t even name my source for you. One of the worst things about the internet is that any idiot can write any nonsense and post it as “news”. I wouldn’t have even read my own story unless it got picked up by ESPN or Yahoo or some other reputable sports website. I’m not a journalist. I’m not fuckin’ Peter Gammons, or Buster Olney. I’m a guy who took one journalism class 100 years ago in college...The most popular feature I write includes a picture of an attractive woman at the end so that people will actually read it.

To people questioning him on Twitter, the guy 1.) is standing by the story (i.e. the source who told him about Melky is telling him this too); 2.) welcomes being doubted. ("Dude, you SHOULD question me. Everyone should question every thing otherwise we get Manti Te'o or Lance all over again.")

Gotta say, if he's just a nutjob spuriously inventing BS he's doing a sociopathically great job of building confidence in his audience.

Still, with appeals and the like odds are the tests are known a month or so before they are announced which gives a big opening for people to leak info to the press. Did anyone else leak Cabrera's test last year before it was announced?

If this report is true, I would expect these players to challenge their test results. Just to provide an example of how these things might play out in terms of timing if a player challenges a positive test result -- i.e., how long before the player is informed of a positive test and he is suspended if he challenges and loses -- Rafael Palmeiro was notified that he had tested positive on May 19, 2005. It was not until August 1, 2005 that he was suspended and the positive test result was publicly disclosed.

The timeline in Palmeiro's case:

March 17, 2005: Palmeiro testifies before Congress; says he has never used steroids.
May 4, 2005: Palmeiro takes a random drug test.
May 19, 2005: The MLBPA informs Palmeiro that he has tested positive for steroids.
<The grievance/arbitration process takes place>
August 1, 2005: Palmeiro's grievance is denied and Selig announces his suspension.

So, everything took about 10 weeks in that case.

If I was MLB and wanted to find out who was leaking this stuff then sending out this rumour via one group would sure make it obvious who the leak was.

It's difficult to figure out where these leaks are without conducting an investigation. The parties involved in Palmeiro's case included:

The comment about the Yankees' offseason strategy is interesting. It's possible that the tests were right after the season ended and the players have been in the appeals process all winter. If the Yankees got the test results in November, they could have decided to punt on FAs and major trades.

The comment about the Yankees' offseason strategy is interesting. It's possible that the tests were right after the season ended and the players have been in the appeals process all winter. If the Yankees got the test results in November, they could have decided to punt on FAs and major trades.

Well, let's examine. They didn't move to re-sign either Swisher or Martin, and so they currently are short a corner OF and a C. What else?

Braun was tested in September (I think) and the appeal was finalized in February.

Huh. Took that long. Anyone know when Melky tested positive? If he was finally suspended in August that would mean he likely got nicked sometime in April, right?

As Yeaaarrgghhh (hey, way to have a nearly un-citable username, bro) points out, that sort of delay between "positive" and final results really does fit in with the idea that the Yankees punted this offseason precisely because they realized they were going to be in a terrible position.

Question: IF THIS IS ALL TRUE, what does one make of the recent report that the Yanks made a "substantial" offer to Cano last month? Does that story tend to make this rumor less likely to be true?

Yes, rumormongering is of questionable taste, but man this is fun to talk about.

As Yeaaarrgghhh (hey, way to have a nearly un-citable username, bro) points out, that sort of delay between "positive" and final results really does fit in with the idea that the Yankees punted this offseason precisely because they realized they were going to be in a terrible position.

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

I don't think so. Whether steroid should be banned or not is one issue and whether a player breaks the agreed upon rules is another. The players are culpable for ruining the Yankees' season (if this rumor is true) not MLB.

On the bright side, the Yanks would save a crap-ton of cash if this rumor is true, no? Hot dogs are free this year at NYS!

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

I'm generally a PED apologist, but this can easily be spun back the other way. If the Yankees were at the top of the success cycle because three of their star players were using banned performance-enhancing substances, then they had no business being at the "top of the success cycle" to begin with.

It would suck for Yankee fans to have to suffer through a punted season, but they have enjoyed (potentially) illicit success in the years prior to this coming season. The rules permit the Yankees to outspend everyone in baseball, the rules explicitly prohibit the Yankees from running out a lineup that is 33% filled out by PED users.

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

... This is probably antithetical to MLB's line of thinking. This story plays as "exactly the sort of incentive necessary to get clubs to crack down on use." If anything, I think that something like this goes to show how "serious" MLB is about correcting its PED problem. It'll lead to stories about how a 95 win team was built on juicers, but it'll also "prove" that MLB's testing is working and being conducted in good faith.

The only trouble is the continued PED black eye, but given the pervasiveness of the story through every major sport except the NBA (for some weird reason), I think the league's doggedness mitigates that.

This is a victory for the collective bargaining process and league-wide order, if anything.

If the Yankees were really punting 2013, why would they spend a lot of money on Kuroda and Youkilis for one-year deals?

Hedging their bets. The appeals might be successful, and they need at least a few supporting guys to field a decent team. And if the appeals aren't successful, Youkilis and Kuroda might keep them around .500 and the fans from revolting. Plus, it isn't that much money to the Yankees.

This story plays as "exactly the sort of incentive necessary to get clubs to crack down on use." If anything, I think that something like this goes to show how "serious" MLB is about correcting its PED problem.

I could see MLB suspending them for exactly this reason. "See, we're willing to suspend some of our biggest stars!"

This will be ugly if confirmed. Of course, as a Jays fan I'd like it to hold off until Granderson heals so the maximum number of games missed by him could occur :)

One does wonder what Cashman will do though. If he knows that he is likely to lose 2 top players for 50 games each on top of the time he knew A-Rod would be gone for then how to handle it? Do you trade for quality guys to fill in, do you 'ride it out' and try to find out if any kids in AAA are ready, do you sign a few vets and see if lightning in a bottle can be found? Probably a mix, sign a few vets, hope a kid or two works out, and try to make a trade but don't mortgage the future on it. 2013 was going to be hard for the Yankees anyways so this just makes it more interesting.

So AL East - Jays have to be the heavy favorites now, Rays up there too, then Yankees while the Orioles & Red Sox hope for some luck in 2013 (to the level the O's had it last year).

Have to say, the idea he would continue to shamelessly use after being caught once already (and escaping on a technicality) is breathtakingly arrogant.

Right now I'm thinking more how this would affect the teams in a hypothetical way. This story needs a confirmation before I'll start LOLing at the players. They should be warned that I am sharpening my snark, though...

Sigh. I could give a #### about Braun and A-Rod, but I really hope this guy is wrong. Cano, to me, has the most beautiful swing since Will Clark. Granderson isn't an elite player, but he's a gamer, fun to watch, and by all accounts a truly good guy who genuinely cares about giving back to the community.

Eso, do you want the players to be guilty? Even from a complete anti-steroid perspective, I don't get that.

Esoteric's entire m.o. on this issue has been to look down upon acused players with scorn - after concluding that they're guilty because the accusation alone suffices as evidence for him. Most people save their scorn for criminals, rapists, child molestors, murderers... those sorts of people. Not Esoteric. A heavy dose of his scorn is proudly set aside for baseball players accused of using steroids. He must be such a better person than them.

Maybe we can start a new fantasy dead pool league but, instead of choosing people you think might pass away, you choose players you think will get busted for PEDs. Winner gets a 1987 Topps Rafael Palmeiro rookie card...

Eso, do you want the players to be guilty? Even from a complete anti-steroid perspective, I don't get that.

I don't actually have any brief against Cano, Granderson, or even A-Rod (who I just pity at this point). But Braun was already caught once and failed to serve any suspension because he escaped on a true technicality. So if this latest rumor is true -- a mighty big "if"! -- then yes, from my perspective it is a bit of just desserts. Furthermore, my comment was also intended in a more observational sense of "what is a guy like that thinking?" I mean, Braun isn't a marginal player hanging on by his teeth to a job. Wouldn't prudence have dictated that, after his narrow escape last year, that he give it a rest for awhile?

I do understand I'm edging out onto a limb here because all of these questions are predicated on rather risky assumption that this story is correct. So if you want to smack me for that, I'll take the hits deservedly.

I posted the article late last night because I think it's a) incredibly newsworthy and b) although nothing more than one man's anonymous source -- this man has been right before wrt to Melky's test.

It's a twitter and anonymous sourced world right now and this guy has had the goods before, however obtained. I think it's worth watching and talking about. And for anyone that doesn't want BTF to print rumors -- come on! BTF is rarely a primary source (with the expectations that go with that) and BTF readers should have the capability to parse this out among themselves rather than on disparate places around the Internet.

In my corner of the Internet (michigan, white sox and bulls message boards) this is big news. I'd assume it's big news in most people's corners of the 'net.

If the Yankees actually punted a season, not because they were in a rebuilding phase, but because the drug testing left them without a chance to compete despite being at the top of the success cycle, it is a horrid result for MLB that has done a thousand times more damage than the entire steroids issue ever did.

That's silly. As a Yankee fan, if the three guys cheated, they deserve the suspension, and the Yankees deserve a shitty year.

Esoteric's entire m.o. on this issue has been to look down upon acused players with scorn - after concluding that they're guilty because the accusation alone suffices as evidence for him. Most people save their scorn for criminals, rapists, child molestors, murderers... those sorts of people. Not Esoteric. A heavy dose of his scorn is proudly set aside for baseball players accused of using steroids. He must be such a better person than them.

Really, Ray? Really?

1.) I reserve something far greater than mere "scorn" for rapists, child molestors, and murderers. I sure hope you do too. "Scorn" is a rather gentle form of disapproval, all things considered.

2.) The idea that my scorn for PED users somehow crowds out my ability to feel outrage about more important things is just silly; it's an entry-level internet arguing tactic.

3.) The question of whether I'm a "better person" than PED users is strangely orthogonal to this entire debate. I don't recall ever having even thought about the issue in those terms. Interestingly enough, what I DO know is that I have gone out of my way in past Primer PED discussions to state that I don't think I'm 'better' or morally superior to people who sit on the other side of this debate (like you, or a majority of Primates for that matter). How ironic for you to write this, given the pains I've shown in the past to stipulate my respect for people who disagree with me.

But Braun was already caught once and failed to serve any suspension because he escaped on a true technicality.

A "true" technicality. Uh-huh.

What do you think the point of "technicalities" are? "Technicalities" are rules designed to protect the accused from abuses and errors and bring integrity, propriety, and fairness to the process.

Braun's case was of course not a criminal matter, but the same concepts apply. If you are ever accused of a crime, can we throw the laws away and just wing it in order to prosecute you? You don't care whether you get 4th Amendment protections, for example? The police can conduct illegal searches on you without repercussion? We can just use the evidence? It's hard to believe a noted right-winger such as yourself would thumb your nose at due process and sneer at people for making the proper arguments in their defense, but you do it in Braun's case, which is curious to me.

Eso, do you want the players to be guilty? Even from a complete anti-steroid perspective, I don't get that.

I'm not Esoteric, and I don't subscribe to his steroid views. But I want it to be true. It would be fun! It's too bad Braun's name is in there as well, since I like him, but having three Yankees get suspended sounds like a blast. What's not to love?

3.) The question of whether I'm a "better person" than PED users is strangely orthogonal to this entire debate. I don't recall ever having even thought about the issue in those terms. Interestingly enough, what I DO know is that I have gone out of my way in past Primer PED discussions to state that I don't think I'm 'better' or morally superior to people who sit on the other side of this debate (like you, or a majority of Primates for that matter). How ironic for you to write this, given the pains I've shown in the past to stipulate my respect for people who disagree with me.

On the issue of steroids, Ryan Braun has more honor than you ever will.