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We devised a method of estimating population size of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) found in California?s offshore waters. The method involves determining the distribution of birds from the shore outward to 6,000 m offshore. Applying this distribution to data from boat surveys, we derived population estimates and estimates of sampling...

Work over the last decade has documented methods for estimating fluxes between streams and streambeds from time series of temperature at two depths in the streambed. We present substantial extension to the existing theory and practice of using temperature time series to estimate streambed water fluxes and thermal properties, including (1) a new explicit analytical...

We document here a decline of nearly 30% in the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) population of Washington, Oregon, and northern California between 2000 and 2010. The Northwest Forest Plan is an ecosystem-management plan for federal forest lands in the Pacific Northwest of the United States that incorporates monitoring to determine if...

An essential element in the conservation of rare species is the ranking of some aspects of habitat quality. We developed a method to rank the importance of individual habitat patches to Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in 26 old-growth forest stands in northern California, using estimates of stand occupaqcy as an index of nesting activity...

Prevention and estimation of soil erosion from forest roads requires an understanding of how road design and maintenance affect sediment production. Seventy-four plots were installed on forest roads in the Oregon Coast Range to examine the relationship between sediment production and road attributes such as distance between culverts, road slope, soil texture,...

The snow surface temperature is an important quantity in the snow energy balance, since it modulates the exchange of energy between the surface and the atmosphere as well as the conduction of energy into the snowpack. It is therefore important to correctly model snow surface temperatures in energy balance snowmelt models. This paper focuses on the relationship between...

Estimating the thermal response of streams to a warming climate is important for prioritizing native fish conservation efforts. While there are plentiful estimates of air temperature responses to climate change, the sensitivity of streams, particularly small headwater streams, to warming temperatures is less well understood. A substantial body of literature correlates...

The primary objectives of the effectiveness monitoring plan for the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) include mapping baseline nesting habitat (at the start of the Northwest Forest Plan [the Plan]) and estimating changes in that habitat over time. Using vegetation data derived from satellite imagery, we modeled habitat suitability by...

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored...

Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of cold?water fishes in the current era of rapid climate change requires knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for...

The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for federal land in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on marbled murrelet ecology and present the monitoring...

A warming climate could profoundly affect the distribution and abundance of many fishes. Bull trout Salvelinus confluentus may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that spawning and early rearing are constrained by cold water temperatures creating a patchwork of natal headwater habitats across river networks. Because the size and...

We sought to determine the presence or absence of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) within the northern Inner North Coast Ranges of northwestern California. We conducted murrelet surveys and collected environmental data during 1995 and 1996 on national forest lands that were south of the Klamath Mountains Section and within B....

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

Lateral downslope flow in snow during snowmelt and rain-on-snow (ROS) events is a well-known phenomenon, yet its relevance to water redistribution at hillslope and catchment scales is not well understood. We used dye tracers, geophysical methods, and hydrometric measurements to describe the snow properties that promote lateral flow, assess the relative velocities of...

Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important...

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions...

An important first step in managing forest roads for improved water quality and aquatic habitat is the performance of an inventory. The Geomorphic Roads Analysis and Inventory Package (GRAIP) was developed as a tool for making a comprehensive inventory and analysis of the effects of forest roads on watersheds. This manual describes the data analysis and process of a...