This chart shows how painful the shift to cloud computing is for IBM and Oracle

AlphaWise/Morgan Stanley
As more and more companies transition to the cloud, Oracle and IBM may find themselves in a fight for the bottom.

The two technology vendors are set to lose out considerably in IT budgets over the next three years as the result of the shift to cloud, according to the June AlphaWise/Morgan Stanley CIO report. CIOs expect that 46% of their workloads will be in the cloud by the end of 2020, while only 34% will be on-premise.

Between now and then, the 100 US and European CIOs surveyed expect to decrease spending on IBM by 13%, and to decrease spending on Oracle by 11%.

This is to the benefit of two of the biggest players in cloud services, Amazon and Microsoft, which topped the list of companies getting the most spend in the coming years. CIOs expect to increase their spending at those companies by 27% and 12%, respectively.

AlphaWise/Morgan Stanley
In the more immediate future, Amazon and Microsoft are expected to be the big winners of all digital transformations in 2017. Despite the longterm decline, Oracle and IBM trail just a little behind in popularity.

When the CIOs were asked to list up to three vendors that they expect to gain the largest incremental percentage of their IT budget in 2017, Amazon got 15% of the responses and Microsoft got 14.6%. IBM and Oracle got 5.2% and 4.3%, respectively.

Not so bad, considering 37 of the 55 vendors asked about didn't even make the chart.