[This report is issued as a background document for the
benefit of the humanitarian community only. It draws on a wide
range of publicly-available sources and interviews conducted
by IRIN in Ethiopia and Eritrea, but cannot be said to
represent the views of the United Nations. It should not be
directly quoted by media.]

ERITREA-ETHIOPIA:
IRIN Special Background Report
October 26 1998

1. INTRODUCTION

"Senseless". "Appalling". "Completely unexpected". These are
a few of the reactions from senior figures interviewed by IRIN
in Ethiopia and Eritrea as their border war reaches a
six-month stalemate. If they are surprised, their countries'
friends, neighbours and investors are stunned. Profiled as
dedicated strategists of African self-reliance, the two
leaders, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi are now locked in a dangerous military
showdown, anaylsts and diplomats say.

Last ditch diplomatic efforts are underway to avert a renewed
outbreak of hostilities which flared up last May. A key OAU
meeting in Burkina Faso has been shifted back several times to
7 November at the earliest, diplomatic sources say. A news
blackout shrouded an early October mission to both capitals by
US envoy, former US national security official Anthony Lake.

This paper from the IRIN network attempts to place the current
situation in context, as a background report. As tensions
remain high, and both sides reportedly are mobilising for war,
it tries to draw attention to the potential impacts of a
failure to reach a peaceful conclusion to the crisis.

2. BACKGROUND

The armies of Ethiopia and Eritrea clashed on their common
border in May and June this year. The two countries had close
ties, due to their historical links - Eritrea became
officially independent from Ethiopia in 1993 - and the
personal relationship between their two leaders. Isaias and
Meles were fellow rebel leaders, heading two liberation fronts
which in latter years cooperated to overthrow the military
regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Despite periods of
ideological and tactical disagreement, Isaias' Eritrean
People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and Meles' Tigray People's
Liberation Front (TPLF), both formed in the mid-seventies,
were the heart of the forces that defeated sub-Saharan
Africa's then largest army in 1991.

The TPLF is the core of the multi-ethnic Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) which now dominates the
Ethiopian political scene. After Eritrean independence,
overwhelmingly approved by a referendum in 1993, peacetime
relations seemed set to remain firm.

Relations, however, noticeably deteriorated last year, when
Eritrea launched its own currency and Ethiopia responded by
insisting that cross-border trade be conducted in hard
currency. Officials now claim that there had been other minor
economic and political problems between the two sides, while
Eritrea has recently revealed details of a hushed-up 1997
border clash at Bada in July 1997. Other causes of friction
were new maps of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, and an
allegedly enlarged Ethiopian national map on the re-issued
Ethiopian currency, the birr. Ethiopia's spokesperson, Selome
Tadesse, however, dismissed earlier differences between the
two as minor, saying "we had bigger issues to focus on."

Conflict broke out in May this year after disagreements over
several points on the common border worsened, despite the
creation of a joint border commission. Despite intensive peace
efforts led by US and Rwandan facilitators, events escalated
to a peak in early June, at which point land forces clashed
heavily on three fronts (Badme, Zal Anbessa and Bure) and both
sides exchanged air strikes.

Hundreds of soldiers were killed, up to 300,000 civilians have
been displaced, schoolchildren were killed in an Eritrean air
raid on Ethiopia's northern Tigray provincal capital of
Mekelle and economic activity on both sides of the border has
been disrupted. In the lull that has followed the June
clashes, both sides have abided by a US-brokered moritorium on
air strikes. Military clashes on the border have been kept to
occasional artillery exchanges. Diplomatic efforts to broker
an agreement are in a stalemate. The US-Rwanda plan originally
asked the Eritrean forces to withdraw pending a final
settlement, but Eritrea refused, saying it would only withdraw
if the territory were demilitarised and controlled by a third
force.

The mood in both countries is one of apprehension mixed with
considerable anger and bitterness. The conflict-related
migration of tens of thousands of civilians from each side has
raised allegations of widespread human rights abuse and
"ethnic cleansing". Military mobilisation has been accompanied
by antagonistic propaganda from both sides. As the conflict
drags on towards a sixth month, the prospects for peace are
dim. Diplomatic rhetoric about an "African renaissance", led
by younger leaders such as Meles and Isaias, is fatally
undermined by the conflicts in the Horn and the Democratic
Republic of Congo.

3. CURRENT SITUATION

3.1 Humanitarian situation

Several hundred thousand people may already be displaced along
both sides of the border, and official statistics say over
50,000 have migrated between the countries. Hundreds of
thousands are considered affected - caring for or accomodating
relatives displaced by war or conflict-related migration. The
government institutions on each side are seeking a total of
well over US $30 million to cope with the humanitarian impact.
Humanitarian needs on each side have been met by a combination
of local community resources, national, church, NGO and
government institutions, and the efforts of international
NGOs, UN agencies and donors.

Trade between the two countries has come to a halt. Ethiopia
has yet to suffer shortages or significant price rises as a
result of using ports other than Assab for its supplies, but
a transport industry source says that Djibouti is likely to
become "congested" with Ethiopian imports in coming months.
The governor of the Eritrean port of Assab, cut off from the
Ethiopian hinterland, says there is a "general shortage of
supplies in the market", despite supplies arriving by sea.

3.2 Eritrea

The Eritrean Relief and Refugee Commission (ERREC) has
appealed for US $20 million for war-affected Eritreans - about
half of which is a six-month food ration for affected people.
While displaced and directly affected people are numbered at
100,000, a further 160,000 are classified by ERREC as having
"fragile livelihoods worsened by the general state of war". A
4 September ERREC health and water supply appeal for both
migrants and war-affected Eritreans is costed at an additional
$5.6 million. The UN's September appeal for Eritrea amounted
to $8.9 million. The UN's assessment of needs was the result
of field visits by two teams of aid officials, and seeks food
rations for about 100,000 affected people.

An ERREC official told IRIN the priority at present was to
secure cash to supply migrant families with funds and food to
repay borrowings from the Eritrean Grain Board. The three
biggest international donors to the ERREC appeal so far are
the US, the EU and Italy. ERREC is not only seeking to cope
with the needs of the temporarily affected, but also is
allocating land to migrants who are not returning to Ethiopia.
Food distributions within Eritrea have included Ethiopian
beneficiaries. A food distribution under the auspices of ERREC
in Assab helped feed 10,000 Ethiopians and 4,500 Eritreans,
local officials told IRIN.

3.3 Ethiopia

The Ethiopian Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission
(DPPC) reports that a total of 188,690 people are displaced
due to the war in northern and eastern Ethiopia. Its 25
September appeal indicates needs for the next six months -
until February 1999, which include 28,242 mt of food aid.
Non-food needs are costed at 80 million Birr, about US $11.1
million. Following a week-long inter-agency assessment of
needs, the UN agencies in Ethiopia devised a complementary
response to part of the overall need in both food and non-food
sectors. UN agencies are seeking US $4.1 million for emergency
aid, complementary to the DPPC appeal. In Ethiopia, UN
commitments already total $3.1 million.

Contributions from the public at home and abroad have been
important for both countries, but observers say it is not
always clear whether public donations are earmarked for
humanitarian purposes or the more general war effort. The
Ethiopian DPPC said that 71 million birr's worth of cash and
goods had so far been donated - about US $10 million - but
told donors that the breakdown between military and
humanitarian fundraising could not immediately be provided.

3.4 Other humanitarian issues

About 64,000 mt of food aid cargo was in the Eritrean port of
Assab at the start of the conflict in May, UN and diplomatic
sources say. "It is not clear" where that food aid is now, a
diplomat told IRIN. All of the food was destined for Ethiopia,
some four million of whose citizens this year were due to
receive some form of food assistance. WFP alone has 11,000 mt
to account for - valued at US $2.2 million. US officials
confirm 43,000 mt of their shipment was also in the port. So
far, the Eritrean government has not clarified their policy
towards the cargo. In the high temperatures of Assab, WFP is
concerned the food "can't last much longer".

Ethiopia has insisted, through the International Maritime
Organisation and the regional trade grouping COMESA, that
Eritrea release all "import-export" goods that were in the
ports.

3.5 Conflict-related migration

The conflict-related migration of Ethiopians and Eritreans
arriving back in their home countries has become the most
emotive issue of the war. When referring to a variety of
population movements ranging from voluntary departures to
forcible expulsions, IRIN may use in this and other reports
the general term "conflict-related migration".

Both countries host large minorities of the other's citizens.
About 130,000 Eritrean adults were registered in Ethiopia at
the time of the independence referendum in 1993, but estimates
of the total Eritrean population in Ethiopia range from
250,000 up to 500,000. The number of Ethiopians in Eritrea is
estimated at around 100,000.

While the exact figures and the degree of coercion are
disputed on both sides, it is clear that large numbers of
people have been uprooted, repatriated, and are now living in
temporary shelter or with relatives, disorientated and angry.
The ICRC has been involved in "ensuring safe passage" of the
migrants across the front lines on at least 18 occasions, but
a carefully worded statement, issued last week, alluded to
"recurrent humanitarian problems".

The Eritrean foreign ministry has announced that 30,000
Eritreans have come back from Ethiopia as of 21 October while
Ethiopia says 27,000 of its citizens have returned as of 25
September, AP reports.

Human rights groups have criticised both governments for their
treatment of civilians, but Ethiopia has come in for harsher
criticism. Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged both governments to
stop the "harassment and targeting" of civilians in a 17 June
statement. HRW noted that the Ethiopian government had made an
official demand on 14 June for Eritrean members of political
and community organisations to leave. No such formal demand
has been made by the Eritrean authorities on Ethiopians. A
statement from the Eritrean ministry of foreign affairs on 25
September says, "Eritrea has no policy of expulsion of
Ethiopian nationals". Ethiopia retorts that Eritrea makes life
"intolerable for them [Ethiopians] while refusing them
permission to leave". Both sides regard the treatment of
migrants to be violations of human and economic rights,
complaining of arrests, beatings and seizure of money and
assets.

The ICRC also reports that it is able to visit civilian
detainees in both countries, but regularly has access to
prisoners of war only in Ethiopia. Reuniting unaccompanied
minors with their families is part of the ICRC's work, while
700 Red Cross messages have been passed in and between
Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is proposing a human
rights monitoring mission in both countries, perhaps in
conjunction with the OAU, a UNHCHR official in Geneva told
IRIN.

4. POLITICAL/MILITARY

4.1 Mobilisation and arms expenditure

Officials from both countries accept estimates that a minimum
of 200,000 armed soldiers have been mobilised altogether. A
very significant military buildup has been continuing for
months. Neither side denies that a process of rearmament has
begun, with imports of weapons costing tens of millions of
dollars, according to investigations by news organisations and
arms trade lobby groups. Aid officials say it is inevitable
that funds will be diverted from peacetime development
efforts.

The threat of air attacks has raised public fears that the war
will reach Asmara and Addis Ababa. The most notorious incident
involving civilians in the war so far was an Eritrean bombing
of a school in Mekelle. Eritrean spokesman Yemane Ghebre
Meskel told IRIN "it was a mistake ... we regret it."

Particularly controversial has been the agreement, reported by
the 'Jerusalem Post', of the Israeli government to allow Elbit
Systems to supply upgraded MiG-21 fighter jets to the
Ethiopian air force within one year. A 1995 report from
'Military and Arms Transfer News' estimated the cost of
simliar upgrades on Romanian MiG 21 aircraft - which Elbit is
exchanging for Ethiopian aircraft - at about $300 million for
100 aircraft.

Eritrea has been importing weapons from eastern Europe, and a
Sudanese opposition source told IRIN that Eritrea, in any
case, had inherited "mountains and mountains" of arms from the
defeated former Ethiopian forces. "If you need them [arms],
you buy them, that's obvious" said a senior Eritrean official.
The Eritrean air force has six Aermacchi MB-339CD training
jets purchased for $45 million in 1996. The 'Indian Ocean
Newsletter' reporting the deal in 1996, said the MB-339CD "can
easily be transformed into [an] attack aircraft".

4.2 Dangers of propaganda

Another fear of diplomats and observers is related to the
level of propaganda on both sides. Neither side has yet
dropped to the level of Rwanda-style "hate media", but in news
broadcasts, commentary and state-sanctioned illustrations,
both sides "demonise" the other. Three journalists in Ethiopia
were arrested in July after publishing an article in their
paper 'Nishan' warning against encouraging ethnic animosity,
reports a press freedom watchdog, IFEX. Media sources said
the three were recently released on bail. An Ethiopian,
married to an Eritrean, said he and others in similar
circumstances particularly feared the power of propaganda to
"poison the mind".

5. DIPLOMATIC SITUATION

5.1 Shifting regional alliances

"Ethiopia doesn't want surprises on its borders", a diplomat
told IRIN in Addis Ababa. A number of signs have emerged that
Ethiopia is strengthening relations with those it may need
during a war or those it needs to keep at bay. Political
support and alleged military help has gone to Somaliland,
relations with Khartoum are improving, and in Somalia,
Ethiopia's involvement took a new turn when Hussein Aydeed
visited Addis in August.

Keeping potential supporters of the armed Islamic Al-Itahad
movement, known to have harassed Ethiopia from Somalia, is
said by observers to be the motive of the rapprochment with
Aydeed, who was formerly not included in Ethiopian-sponsored
negotiations. Ethiopia has also helped Djibouti with finance
to improve its port operations.

Eritrea too, has been glad to reach agreement with Yemen over
the disputed Red Sea Hanish islands - although its claims were
largely denied. Eritrea has announced new trade deals with
Libya, which had in the 1980s been accused of supporting
anti-EPLF Eritrean groups. An African diplomat in Asmara said
the "permutations are changing". The re-alignments resulting
from the latest rebellion and intervention in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo would also "change the configuration",
the diplomat said.

5.2 My enemy's enemy is my friend?

If conflict or even the current low-level dispute continues,
there is an increased likelihood of each side helping its
neighbour's rebels as part of attempts to undermine and
destabilise the enemy. This has in the past, often involved
the use of neighbouring states as rear bases for the rebels.

Ethiopia's stand-off with Eritrea has warmed relations between
the ruling EPRDF and some "unity"-oriented opposition groups,
but others may take advantage of the current conflict to seek
support from Eritrea or elsewhere, analysts say.
Ethiopia-Sudan relations are coloured by the ability of both
sides to foster rebellion, analysts say.

A Horn of Africa analyst told IRIN that a consolidation within
the splintered Eritrean armed opposition, might also be
encouraged by Addis Ababa. An exiled Ethiopian opposition
figure has told IRIN that Ethiopian officials visited an
Eritrean rebel faction in Germany earlier this year.
Officially, Ethiopia says it has refused to allow Eritrean
opposition groups to open offices in Addis Ababa, while
Eritrea will admit only that the Eritrean rebel group known as
Jihad makes "occasional incursions" into western Eritrea from
time to time.

Ethiopia says Eritrea is supporting rebel movements, one being
the Oromo Liberation Front - a veteran of opposition to Addis
Ababa since 1974. The OLF, briefly in a transitional
government with the EPRDF in 1991-1992, is a "mercenary group
serving the EPLF", according to Ethiopian president Nagasso
Gidada speaking on VOA radio in July. In interviews with
IRIN, spokespersons from both sides will admit the possibility
of giving help and encouragement to each other's rebels only
if the situation worsens. The prospect of dormant internal
disputes breaking into armed conflict could greatly complicate
the political, military and humanitarian situation, aid
workers say.

5.3 Prospects for negotiated settlement

Diplomatic efforts have been deadlocked for months, as the
original 4 June US-Rwanda four-point peace plan remains on the
table (full text available from IRIN on request). Since then
the OAU Council of Ministers (on 5 June) and OAU Assembly of
the Heads of State and Government (on 10 June 10) have to
varying degrees backed the plan. UN Security Council
resolution 1177 (1998) stops short of endorsing the US-Rwanda
plan. The Security Council resolution "notes" the OAU Council
of Ministers resolution and "expresses its strong support" for
the more cautious OAU Heads of State resolution. A team of
OAU-mandated ambassadors after a fact-finding mission agreed
that some areas under dispute had been under Ethiopian
administration before 6 May.

However, an Eritrean government official told IRIN that the
full OAU report was over 80 pages long, and had not been
released. The upcoming OAU meeting in Burkina Faso is to
consider the whole report. Eritrea, according to spokesman
Yemane Ghebre Meskel, does not deny that Eritrean forces
presently occupy locations previously controlled by Ethiopia,
but says the flaws of the US-Rwanda 4 June peace plan, which
most observers say was made public prematurely, were many - it
was "incomplete", he said.

The most serious sticking point for both sides has been the
"re-deployment" - read withdrawal - of troops from contested
areas. Ethiopia demands the unconditional withdrawal of
Eritrean troops and the re-establishment of the status quo
ante, while Eritrea refuses, unless the contested areas are
then patrolled by a neutral force, pending arbitration. Other
parts of the US-Rwanda plan, such as the demarcation of the
border and arbitration mechanisms are held up by the issue of
re-deployment.

About five areas along the common border are disputed. A key
difference in public statements so far has been Eritrea's
emphasis on colonial boundaries, and Ethiopia's repeated
mention of effective administration and historical precedent.
A telltale section of the disputed border is the section
marked (on maps issued by both sides) as a straight line
between the Tekezze and Mareb-Gash rivers. Leaders on both
sides have said they have no broader territorial ambitions,
but analysts and media reports speculate that in the event of
an all-out conflict, Ethiopia would covet Assab, Eritrea's
southern Red Sea port that had served landlocked Ethiopia with
most of its imports. Humera, on Ethiopia's border with Sudan
and Eritrea, is mentioned as a possible strategic target for
Eritrea.

Neither side has substantively modified its negotiating
position since June, while no new diplomatic initiative has
been launched publicly. Ethiopia, satisfied with the US-Rwanda
plan, resists the idea of new "tracks", while an Eritrean
diplomat, contacted by IRIN, suggests that the latest US
mission by Anthony Lake might yet bear fruit and mentions
other low-key efforts by African and European to break the
deadlock. There have been contacts between the two Orthodox
church leaders of each country, and diplomatic sources say a
meeting of Christian and Muslim religious leaders is being
planned in Norway.

6. CONCLUSION

A senior UN official told IRIN that a war between the former
close allies, once started, would be hard to stop, saying
"it's not a fire you can light and put out quickly."
Humanitarian contingency planning is going on in both
countries. A UN official said "it could go either way. But
whether or not there's further fighting, there will have to be
serious thinking about the new relationship between the
countries."

Humanitarian aid, military expenditure and disrupted economic
activity have already cost some US $100 million, but the
historical and cultural links between the countries is a
source of hope for some: "You can't permanently create a wall
between these people", says Yemane Ghebre Meskel. "Both
leaders are looking for a way out", a senior African
commentator said.

A long-term analyst of the Horn of Africa told IRIN that in
Ethiopia there was "very considerable pressure to fight" from
a range of political directions. Emergent Eritrea too, can ill
afford to lose face.

Even if peace is established, it will take time to undo the
damage to civilian livelihoods, patch up damaged
infrastructure and restore trade - politics and bruised pride
permitting. Longer-term damage will be in the fields of
foreign investment and tourism - where confidence has been
badly rattled. However, the conviction on both sides is that
they regard war - if it comes - to be just. Ethiopia's Selome
Tadesse said it would be "as acceptable as war gets". UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan and UN officials in the Horn
point out that the war could be the first interstate conflict
in a decade, and that such an event has not taken place in
Africa since the Ethiopia-Somalia war of 1977-78.

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