Hurricane pre-season prediction wrap-up

In this final week before the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters of all stripes have been scrambling to get their bets on the table. Long-range forecasting is tough enough when you’re trying to predict the weather two weeks, or a month in advance.

But trying to peer into the future for a season that runs roughly from now until after Thanksgiving is a science that is really still in its infancy, and the success rate is low.

Many respected forecasters were thrown for a loop last year when a predicted El Nino in the Pacific Ocean — which keeps a lid on tropical storm development in the Atlantic — never materialized. Predictions for a normal- to below-normal year were way off as the season tied for the third-busiest on record with 19 named storms.

On Thursday, NOAA — the parent organization of the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center — weighed in with a forecast for between 13-20 named storms; 7-11 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.

On Friday, the UK-based forecasting service Tropical Storm Risk published an updated forecast (they also publish one in April) calling for 15 named storms; eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes. TSR predicts four tropical storms and two hurricanes will make landfall in the U.S.

Other researchers have gotten into the hurricane guessing game although their forecasts haven’t attracted much media attention. For example, Penn State University’s Earth System Science Center issued a forecast this month for 16 named storms. The researchers do not break that down into hurricanes and intense hurricanes.

Going back to the UK, Britain’s Met Office released a forecast this month calling for 10-18 named storms, which if you take the median number gives you a prediction of 14. The Met Office predicts nine hurricanes but doesn’t forecast major hurricanes.

The Weather Channel also issues hurricane forecasts and weighed in this year with 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes. This was almost identical to AccuWeather’s 16/8/4.

Weather hobbyists also make pre-season predictions because … well, because they can. At the Central Florida Hurricane Center (no affiliation with the National Hurricane Center), 14 readers weighed in with an average forecast of 17 storms, nine hurricanes and four majors.

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Friday’s high temperature at Miami International Airport was 94 degrees, which tied the record for the date set in 1989. The high at Palm Beach International Airport was 88 degrees, and it was 89 in Palm Beach.

Drier air moved through the area around 6 a.m. this morning. The dew point dropped from 69 degrees at 6 a.m. to 62 degrees at 9 a.m. By noon, the dew point had only climbed to 64 degrees with a relative humidity of only 53 percent.

The air was even drier in Central Florida with a relative humidity in DeLand of 43 percent; 42 percent in New Smyrna Beach.

Northeast winds were gusting to 23 mph at the airport with slightly stronger gusts at the beach. Cooler air enters the picture on Sunday with a forecast high in Palm Beach of 81, 6 degrees off the normal high of 87.

But tropical moisture begins streaming back into South Florida on Tuesday as rain chance jump to 40 percent. Rain chances remain between 30-40 percent into next weekend.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.