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ROUND II: Marquez has Pac Man again

Mar 11, 2008 6:00 PM

Pulling No Punches by Michael Katz | Brother, there are no moral victories in gambling.

You win, you lose, you push. So even if there was no loser in
the epic third battle between Israel Vazquez and Rafael Marquez earlier this
month, there were plenty who had to tear up tickets on the gallant runnerup.

Brother, here we go again.

There may not be any losers in the ring Saturday night at
Mandalay Bay Arena when Rafael Marquez’s older and bigger brother, Juan
Manuel, tries his hand at Pac Man again. This is another of those easy
prognoses, if all you’re doing is trying to pick how the bout will do on the
excitement-meter.

In their first encounter almost five years ago, Manny Pacquiao
dropped the bigger Marquez three times in the first round, only to have the
classy Mexican counter-puncher remarkably rally to gain a draw. In fact, many of
my ringside colleagues, and others in attendance, believed Marquez virtually
shut out the Pac Man after the opening round and deserved the decision in what
was a bloody brawl of great artistic merit.

I disagree.

I thought Pacquiao should have been given a clear points
decision, the way Jersey judge John Stewart did by a 115-110 margin. Burt
Clements of Reno wound up with a 113-113 card, but gave the Pac Man only a 10-7
first round – not realizing he could and should (as the other
two judges) scored it 10-6.

Guy Jutras of Canada had it 115-110 for Marquez and that
is why there are many in the congregation will look at the odds for the rematch
and do more than pray for the Mexican.

While there is no question this is going to be another
terrific match, I have little doubt that Pacquiao and his backers will be the
only winners. Juan Manuel may fight valiantly again, but I believe in the only
place it counts – our pocketbooks.

Marquez represents the loser here.

Pacquiao is about a 2-1 favorite (-200 at Caesars Palace). The
buy-back rate on Marquez is anywhere from +150 to +170, a rather attractive
temptation for a live underdog. But I believe Pacquiao won the first fight and
should take the second comparatively easily.

Pacquiao is two years better after more work with trainer
Freddie Roach. Marquez is two years older. The Filipino, at 29, is still in his
prime. The first fight was at 126 pounds for Marquez’s featherweight titles.
This is at 130 for Marquez’s junior lightweight belt.

It is the Pac Man who is growing stronger. He started his pro
boxing career, at age 16, as a junior flyweight and won his first world title at
flyweight (weighing 110½ pounds). If he beats Marquez his next fight, says
promoter Bob Arum, will be to challenge David Diaz for one of the 135-pound
trophies.

Pacquiao hasn’t had much trouble, apparently, making weight
for next Saturday because of all the hard work he has done in Roach’s Wild
Card Gym in Los Angeles. For the first time in a while, he has done all his
training in this country, away from his adoring and distracting Filipino fans,
People I trust say he looks extremely sharp in the gym.

He has improved mightily since 2004. The southpaw knocked
Marquez down with left hands all three times in the opening round. He became so
enamored with his power punch that he frequently forgot to set it up.

Since then, Roach has done wonders in molding Pacquiao into a
two-fisted fighter. The right hand is also capable of dropping opponents.

More importantly, Roach has actually been able to entrance the
Pac Man into playing defense. Marquez’s sharp counters will, I believe, be
slipped or ducked more often than not this time.

I don’t believe Marquez is at his peak, but neither do I feel
he will not be at his best Saturday. In the seven fights since Pacquiao, he has
scored only two knockouts. However, I’m sure the great Mexican trainer, Nacho
Beristain, will have him at his best.

It’s just that I think at his best, Marquez is not as good as
this new version of the Pac Man, whom I believe is tops in the game, pound for
pound, with the sole exception of Floyd Mayweather Jr. And, I’m not sure
Mayweather is still in the game.

He might have had a better chance if he had accepted the
$750,000 or so for the immediate rematch. Much has been written about how, under
Beristain’s management (great trainers can be poor managers), he instead took
a pittance and went to Indonesia to lose his featherweight title to hometown
favorite Chris John.

I like Pacquiao a lot in this rematch and would not be at all
surprised if he manages a stoppage in fairly quick order. Either way, he’s the
only winner here, along with his backers.

PULL

(Freddie) Roach has done wonders in molding Pacquiao into a
two-fisted fighter. The right hand is also capable of dropping opponents