The team at Cazana today launched KeyworkerGarages.co.uk to help all those who are on the front line fighting COVID-19 stay mobile during these unprecedented times. This is a free website that contains vital information on the service centres that are still offering motor support services to key workers.

If you are an NHS worker, police, delivery driver etc. in need of vehicle services (maintenance, repair, tyres etc) all you need do is enter your postcode and the website will show you the nearest open service centre including opening hours and contact details to get your vehicle booked in as soon as possible.

Despite many business shutdowns, there are still millions of keyworkers, volunteers and support staff who need their vehicles repaired and there are a number of service centres staying open to support this group and willing to help! The team at Cazana have collated the data of open service centres from their partner dealers that remain open. Cazana encourages any centres not listed to submit their details on the site and help us to keep this website up to date to give keyworkers a definitive list of locations that can help.

Tom Wood at Cazana commented:

“This is a challenging time for both the automotive industry and all those who are on the front line fighting this pandemic and we wanted to do something as a team to help both the nation’s essential keyworkers and the dealer service departments remaining open. I’m massively proud of the team here at Cazana who have been collecting data and have built this new site over the past week with the intention of helping people to stay mobile during this crisis”.

For more information, please visit KeyworkerGarages.co.uk. Please help us get the word out about this website so we can ensure that those who need to be on the road during this pandemic keep mobile.

Over the last 6 months, there has been an array of bad weather conditions including one hurricane (Ophelia) and 21 storms in the UK including the more notable ones such as Storm Brian, Storm Georgina and Storm Aileen. All of this rainfall and harsh weather takes an unfortunate toll on our vehicles. With this in mind, we have searched the extensive Cazana database and highlighted the counties in the UK that have the highest proportion of rusty cars, and identified which are the most rust prone. This was identified by looking at the volume of cars that have rust and corrosion warnings noted on MOT data. It will come as no surprise that 5 of the rustiest counties for car owners in the UK are situated in Scotland where the weather conditions can often be harsher.

Top 10 rustiest counties in the UK for car owners

Here you have it, the worst offending counties for rusty cars.

Another unsurprising fact is that the top 3 counties with the highest proportion of rusty cars are close to the sea. While living close to the ocean may look stunning and have so many wonderful perks, unfortunately, it can be a tougher environment for cars. Certain environmental factors such as salt and fog near the coast can cause rust on a vehicle and accelerate vehicle corrosion.

West Dunbartonshire, Scotland

Fife, Scotland

Northumberland, North East England

Roxburghshire, Scotland

Banffshire, Scotland

Midlothian, Scotland

Herefordshire, West Midlands

Durham, Central England

Lincolnshire, Central England

Yorkshire, Northern England

Other counties that are high on the list include Lanarkshire, West Lothian, Angus and Flintshire. There is a clear pattern of either being close to the sea and somewhere where the weather conditions are tougher.

The counties with the lowest proportion of rusty cars

So in contrast to the list above, the counties with the lowest volume of rusty cars are mostly in the south and Wales.

Antrim, Northern Ireland

Middlesex, South East England

Hampshire, South England

Oxfordshire, South East England

Surrey, South East England

Denbighshire, North East Wales

Kent, South East England

Caernarfonshire, Wales

The top 10 rustiest cars in the UK

It’s surprising to see the nations favourite Ford Fiesta on here and not only that but it is top of the list. With so many on our roads and often older it is possible that they are also less well cared for. Land Rover and Jeep, however, are not as surprising to see on this list as they are often used heavily in off-road conditions where water and dirt are commonplace.

Ford Fiesta

Vauxhall Corsa

Land Rover Range Rover Sport

Ford StreetKa

ToyotaRav-4

Jeep Wrangler

Volkswagen Polo Hatch

MINI Hatchback

Ford Ka

Fiat Grande Punto

What are the main causes of rust in vehicles?

Rust is the reddish-brown/yellow colour that coats iron or steel when exposed to air and moisture. Our vehicles can be a big investment and financial commitment and to ensure we protect them we need to first understand what the main causes of rust are.

Location

As fun as living near the coast is, as we mentioned above, it can take a toll on your car. Both the salt and moisture (water) in the air can cause vehicles to rust. Therefore it is no surprise that 6 out of the top 10 rustiest counties in this list are close to the sea.

Salt

Most road users in colder places will use salt to get rid of ice and snow from their vehicles and it is also used extensively to keep the roads clear. However, lengthy exposure to salt can be harmful to vehicles and make them more susceptible to corrosion as it gets caught in the nooks and crannies of the car.

Weather conditions

As we already mentioned water and moisture is a big cause of rust on and in cars. Rain, snow and fog are big factors in why our cars rust and corrode over time.

Neglect

Like anything in life if we ignore a bad situation it will eventually get worse. Not checking your car regularly and not keeping up with maintenance and more important cleanliness will cause minor instances of rust to flourish and turn into more serious issues.

Top 6 ways to prevent rust in vehicles

Regular maintenance. This may sound obvious but keep up with regular repairs as it can make all the difference when something is caught early.

Inspect your car regularly and act on what you find covering body scratches and dings as quickly as possible

Keep your car in a sheltered area. If you are lucky enough to have a garage or sheltered area to park make sure you use it to help protect your car from harsh weather conditions. If you don’t have a sheltered place to park then consider getting a car cover.

Wax. Get your vehicle waxed twice a year (especially if you live near the seaside) and consider having a body protection treatment added.

Keep the inside of your car clean too. Don’t just wash the outside of the car, keep the interiors clean as well especially during Winter when there is more salt on the roads.

Disruptive AI start-up Cazana.com is delighted to announce they have been chosen as a cohort in Wayra’s Intelligent Mobility Programme 2020. This programme is a partnership between Connected Places Catapult and Wayra UK and is designed to attract disruptive start-ups with high-growth potential into the UK transport supply chain, while helping them grow into world-leading companies.

Cazana’s success at being included in this programme reflects the evolving motor industry, which in the wake of Covid-19 and concerns over manufacturing is looking to the latest technology to boost growth in the near future.

Cazana’s Head of Commercial, Tom Lawrie-Fussey commented:

“This is a time of revolution in the motor industry and we’re incredibly excited to be included in this programme and can’t wait to see what opportunities it’s going to bring. Even in these challenging times we are growing and Covid-19 has allowed us to showcase the importance of working with realtime retail data as opposed to the old school way of opinion and bias!”

2019 was a huge year for Cazana who more than doubled their London team and started the year with a successful crowdfunding campaign. Cazana raised £1.56m on the crowdfunding platform Crowdcube. In the last 6 months, Cazana has also picked up two awards for their SAAS product Cazana Companion winning Best Product or Service in Auto Finance at the International Asset Finance Network Awards 2019 (in December) and receiving the highly commended award for Best New Product or Service at this year’s AM Awards.

The lockdown period has been a very difficult time for the UK automotive industry, and it is important to understand exactly what happened during the closure of retailer premises. Whilst sales levels dropped by around 80% there was still online sales activity and the retail consumer was still there to buy new and used vehicles. This necessitated a new approach to customer interaction which has relied on digital communication, virtual showrooms and online sales processing.

With wholesale activity almost completely halted and auctions halls dormant, the only way to understand what happened is to look at retail driven realtime insight. The chart below looks at the retail price movements by percentage by fuel type from March 23rd through until May 25th:-

Data powered by Cazana

This chart clearly shows that at a high level for all but diesel-powered cars, retail pricing has increased over the lockdown period. Looking at the data more deeply, it is clear that the price decline for diesel product came in the high mileage ex-fleet vehicle profile. When pricing moves upwards like this it can be an indication that there is good consumer demand and perhaps a shortage of stock. Given that transactions have been taking place over the course of the lockdown period it would be wise to acknowledge that generally speaking stock levels have been dropping and on that basis, there will be encouraging wholesale demand as the auctions start to do business again.

The issue lies in the fact that the auction and logistics supply chain could take 4 to 6 weeks to get up to speed. Transporters are out of place and cars are with dealers or customers and all need moving to the right place to be prepared for sale. With so many vehicle movements required and the need for effective safety to be in place and enough PPE to be available, there are many challenges. There are only so many vehicles that can be moved in one day with a higher level of safety requirements in play.

The next chart looks at the market from an age and profile perspective and gives more context to high level market movements over the same period:-

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at data covering the lockdown period from a slightly different angle and it is immediately clear that 5 age and mileage profiles show a positive increase in prices and 4 show a decline. Given that this is a mid-level market view the data requires deeper analysis to identify exactly where the problems lie and the two main areas of concern are the Ex Fleet cars at 3 and 4 years old which have dipped in price during the lockdown period to the tune of -1.6% and -3.2%. The data shows that significant volatility in the low volume of insight for petrol hybrid models is the cause of the % market move which originates from the change in classification of petrol hybrid vehicles to incorporate stop/start models. Excluding that spurious data brings the pricing movement to a decline of -1% and -1.56% respectively which is a far more positive representation of market data and highlights the importance of granularity.

Given that the data highlights that overall there has been an upward pricing trend during the lockdown period both from a pure fuel type perspective and an age and mileage profile point of view, it demonstrates that there is confidence in the market and retail consumer demand. Wholesale vendors and retailers using this insight and combining it with the understanding that stock will be more difficult to come by in the coming weeks, are therefore in the main reacting correctly to the effects of market demand and not letting stock go at low money as there is no need to.

With this level of retail data available it is hard to argue the factual accuracy of the pricing output. In addition, it is hard to comprehend how other valuation data providers can justify downward pricing moves of up to 5% on their monthly output. As their decision process is based on manually editing a pot of data that by their own admission is at best 20% of what it had been in volume terms before lockdown, this is arguably irresponsible and could perhaps be considered misleading. Indeed, a forecast that car prices could be 7% lower at this point next year seems also somewhat random and more subjective than factual given the low levels of wholesale data available and certainly contradictory to the positive outlook expressed by so many dealers and advertising portals.

In conclusion, retail pricing is in good health and there is currently a positive trend across the market. In these circumstances a positive and responsible attitude to remarketing, retailing and reporting is appropriate and the use of whole market retail driven insight essential to maximise on the opportunities currently available.

Yesterday the car retailers opened their doors for a new chapter in car sales. Nobody knows how long the country will take to return to normal or indeed if there will be a second wave of COVID-19 that will result in further lockdown measures. What is clear is that for the moment new procedures will be in place that will aim to make it safe for customers to return to the showroom and deal in person once again. At the same time, online purchasing will continue to evolve and give a better purchasing experience for those wary of visiting sites to buy a new or used car.

For the time being Cazana will continue to provide weekly pricing insight to keep the industry aware of retail driven price movements where traditional data providers are unable to reliably and responsibly do so due to the lack of auction data. Sales levels in the coming days are expected to increase quite swiftly and there is every possibility that the supply chain will not be able to keep up with wholesale demand for cars and this will pose a problem for some weeks to come. Staff are now back in place with many, but not all, having returned from the isolation of furlough and eager to get back to doing what they love best – selling cars.

From a pricing perspective, the chart below looks at price changes as a percentage for petrol-powered cars week on week from May 26th against May 19th.

Data powered by Cazana

Unlike the previous week where retail prices lifted by 2.27%, retail prices for petrol powered cars have shown a minimal increase in pricing of just 0.03%. This is still good news as there have been drops in pricing in just 2 sectors, the largest being -1.34% for the Luxury Car sector which accounts for just 0.23% of all retail advertised cars. However, this drop affects the whole sector average movement.

The biggest increase in pricing has come in the D or Large car sector which at 1.74% represents an increase of £334 per car bringing the average price to £19,202. This is quite a shift for this sector and perhaps suggests a shortage of replacement stock and a good level of consumer enquiry, which are two things that the retailers will see manifest themselves in the coming weeks.

Retail pricing for diesel powered cars has also remained firm, and the overall market uplift in the most recent week has been a minimal 0.1%, but this is still good news as it reinforces the fact that retailers are not dropping prices unnecessarily.

Data powered by Cazana

There has been a more varied performance across the diesel fuel type in the last period although the overall market % movement has been most adversely affected by the A Sector Supermini pricing which fell by -0.97%. This market sector is quite volatile having moved upwards by 2.27% in the previous period. The volume of cars is low and therefore shifts can be quite large week on week and the diesel superminis represent just 0.03% of all retail adverts in today’s retail market.

The largest upward move came for the B Small diesel car sector which at 0.43% represents an increase of £31 per car with this sector taking 1.1% of total retail adverts. For diesel powered cars the largest sector is the J or SUV sector which represents 16.9% of total retail adverts. With a drop of -0.31% the average reduction in price per car was £65.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector was also positive overall in the last 7-day period as shown below.

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows that all but one market sector in the petrol hybrid category showed an increase in retail pricing. The overall sector move was an increase of 0.39% which is good news generally speaking. Interestingly the largest uplift came in the S or Sports market sector where pricing increased by 0.82% which represents an uplift of £473 per car where the average price is now £57,538. This is off the back of the large jump in pricing for Sports cars between weeks 19 and 20.

The only sector to show a decline was the sparsely populated small car sector that represents 0.46% of total retail adverts which incidentally is almost the same as it was at the start of the lockdown period. Now at an average price of £13,066 the drop in price was just £23 per car.

For the first time in a couple of weeks BEV pricing has shown an overall increase of 0.13% across all the market sectors as shown in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

There have been two sectors that have recorded a decrease in retail pricing with the largest move of -4.58% coming from the Supermini sector. Accounting for 0.01% of the market this should not be of great concern, but it does affect the headline whole fuel type average movement, and with this sector removed the average price change moves to an increase of 0.42%.

It is also of note that this is the first fuel type that shows an uplift in retail pricing for the J Sector SUV cars. The SUV sector recorded a drop in retail pricing in all other fuel types, and this is therefore an area to watch in the coming weeks. There has long been concern for pricing of this type of car based on the volumes returning to the used car market. It will be interesting to watch retail prices in the coming weeks.

The next chart shows retail pricing movements by fuel type in 2020 compared to what happened in 2019 as it is crucial to understand the difference in pricing trends between a normal market and this year’s COVID affected trading environment.

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows that in the final week before the reopening of the showrooms, retail pricing has increased slightly which is a positive view given the circumstances. It is a different picture to the pricing trend in 2019 where the shift for BEV drew the trendline downwards, although also important to note that for all other fuel types retail pricing changes were similarly low. However, last year’s retail price trend without BEV’s was still slightly downwards whereas 2020 is on a positive track.

Now the showrooms are open it will be very interesting to understand what will happen to retail pricing. The use of real-time insight will give retailers the opportunity to identify the slightest change in the market and facilitate the chance to make the most of the opportunities that present themselves. At the moment factual insight is so much more valuable than data based on human decisioning and will give the best chance of a higher return on the available stock.

As the country begins to loosen up a bit and become a little more upbeat with the prospect of a return to semi normality beginning to hit home, there remains some concern over what social distancing means to certain demographics. The weather has been kind and people have taken advantage of the opportunity to get out and about although some individuals and groups have not quite grasped the importance of maintaining a social distance and keeping clean.

The automotive industry is just days away from being able to open showroom doors once again and thankfully the vast majority of businesses are making every effort to ensure the safety of both staff and customers. Where confidence has led the population to the parks and beaches to exercise, it has given the retailers the chance to look at their operations functions and ensure that they will be ready for safe trading from June 1st. Market activity is rising and online sales have been further increasing. Although sales levels appear to have been running at about 20% of last years figures in the last couple of weeks, confidence is running high for a positive bounce-back to around 75% of pre lockdown trading levels in a matter of days.

In pricing terms, the chart below looks at petrol retail pricing for week 20, commencing on May 19th against the previous week starting May 12th. The trend in this period builds on the previous weeks results with pricing increasing across almost all market sectors.

Data powered by Cazana

As a sector the overall pricing move for petrol powered cars was an increase of 2.29% although this has been greatly influenced by activity in the Sports Car sector. An increase in the number of high-end vehicles being offered for sale has resulted in an almost 9% increase in price. With the Sports sector excluded the overall average increase was 0.64%.

It is important to highlight that just 2 market sectors recorded a drop in prices with Executive cars moving the most at -0.47% or £134 per car although this sector covers just over 0.5% of total retail adverts. Positive pricing movements for Supermini, Small, Medium and Large cars represent an uplift in pricing across 34.3% of all advertised cars which is as predicted by Cazana some weeks ago.

Diesel prices have also shown similar resilience and during the last week pricing has seen an increase across all but the SUV market sector as shown in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

The total market increase was 0.35% which is somewhat lower than the petrol headline increase figure, although given an average price of £15,393 this represents an increase of £55 per car. The largest increase in price of 2.32% came in the Supermini sector, although this represents just 0.03% of all retail advertised cars.

The J sector or SUVs show a minimal decrease in price at -0.06% which is some ways is surprising. These cars represent just over 17% of all retail advertised cars and the volume of total market share has dropped just shy of 0.5% during the lockdown period. This could suggest that this is a competitive market although supply may be a problem in the coming weeks if demand picks up as expected.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector was also positive overall in the last 7-day period as shown below.

Data powered by Cazana

In the last week the volume of petrol hybrid cars advertised has increased slightly and they now take 4.04% of the total volume. This could be due to new cars being advertised but it is more likely due to the reduction in the number of cars other fuel type cars advertised. The overall fuel type shift in pricing was an increase of 4.68% with an average price of £28,707 which is up by an average of £1342 per car. This has been skewed by the addition of a small number of very high value cars to the retail advertising data set. The S sector or Sports sector shows an increase of 18.82% or £10,739 and this reflects the addition of amongst other things a very high price Hybrid Ferrari.

With the Sports sector removed the overall petrol hybrid fuel type has shown pricing remain at he same level it was in the previous week. The largest variance has been for the C or Medium car sector with an uplift of 0.24% and this sector accounts for 1.05% of total retail adverts.

For the first time in a couple of weeks BEV pricing has shown an overall increase of 0.36% across all the market sectors as shown in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

There has been just one sector that has recorded a minimal decrease in retail pricing with a move of just -0.12% coming from the SUV sector. Accounting for only 0.09% of the market as a whole this should not be of great concern.

It is also of note that this is the first fuel type that shows an uplift in retail pricing for the J Sector SUV cars. All other SUV fuel types recorded a drop in retail pricing, and this is therefore an area to watch in the coming weeks. There has long been concern for pricing of this type of car based on the volumes returning to the used car market. It will be interesting to watch retail prices in the coming weeks.

The final chart looks at the performance of the last 7-day period in comparison with pricing activity during the same period in 2019. This is important to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic may be affecting pricing movement when compared to a normal open marketplace.

Data powered by Cazana

Therefore, it is clear from the chart above the retail pricing in the last week has still been shifting as dealers prepare for the opening of the showroom doors. Generally speaking, the pattern of price changes is not dissimilar to 2019 which is encouraging, and it is interesting to acknowledge that due to the movement of BEV prices the trendlines for both years show a downward trajectory. It is also vital to remember that the headline figure for petrol hybrid pricing reflects the addition of some high value cars in the Sports sector. With the Sports sector excluded the petrol hybrid price movement was static.

With a return to normal used car sales imminent, the importance of real-time data has never been so clear to the automotive industry. However, remember that the detail is key and using real-time data gives an edge over those who are using subjective legacy data for their pricing assumptions.

The used car market is beginning to show signs of greater activity with the increase in the number of dealers transacting car sales online rising by the day. Now that socially distanced delivery has been introduced, both business and consumer confidence is starting to grow, and more dealers are being able to transact the whole purchase process in a more seamless fashion making the customer experience better and facilitating an increase in sales volumes. This means that pricing cars appropriately to attract the consumer is becoming more important, and this is a trend that is likely to continue in the coming months.

Over the next two weeks, preparations for a return to business will gather pace and dealerships are set to open their doors to customers once again on June 1st as part of the relaxation of the COVID lockdown. Businesses are beginning to un-furlough staff nationwide and measures to ensure that consumers can safely return to premises are well underway to facilitate face to face selling once again. Screens are in place to protect both staff and customers and lines drawn on the floor to remind people to stay apart. PPE is also being sourced for use where appropriate, and it will be very interesting to see how this new way of interacting will be received by the consumer.

As far as the used car market is concerned, the first chart looks at the pricing performance of petrol- powered cars and shows some positive news. This chart shows the pricing performance moves by percentage week on week comparing the period starting on May 12th to the previous period starting May 5th.

Data powered by Cazana

Pricing moves for this fuel type have all been positive and this is of note given that petrol cars represent just over 52% of all advertised vehicles. Prices for the Large car sector showed the greatest increase at 2% which represents an uplift of £383 per vehicle and may suggest some confidence in demand for this type of car. The Luxury car sector was not far behind with an improvement of 1.13% or £481 per car although these cars represent 0.3% of the total market.

For the larger volume market sectors such as Small and Medium cars, the increases have been lower at 0.46% and 0.09% upwards representing £42 and £13 per car respectively but considering these sectors account for 13.16% and 12.74% of total retail adverts accordingly this may suggest a balanced increase in pricing based on confidence in the consumer coming back to the market.

This weeks review of the diesel market is more varied although by no means negative overall as shown in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

There were drops in retail pricing across 4 of the 9 different market sectors with the biggest fall coming to the Supermini sector at 1.91%. It is important to note that these represent just 0.03% of all retail adverts. A drop of 0.4% for the Small car sector wipes out the gain from the previous week which is a surprise although perhaps reflecting the consumer demand for diesel city cars is softening.

The increase in retail pricing for Medium and Large cars is more important given that they represent just shy of 15% of retail adverts overall and uplifts of £40 and £66 per car respectively could have quite an impact across a large forecourt. The largest improvement has been for Sports cars at 0.53% or £98 per car.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector was also generally positive in the last 7-day period as shown below.

Data powered by Cazana

Petrol Hybrid cars represent 3.77% of total retail adverts and the largest sector is SUVs which showed a decline in pricing of 0.59% or £164 per car. This is a hard-fought area and as the volume of Petrol Hybrid cars in the market increases during the rest of the year, further drops for this fuel type are likely as the overall residual value percentage falls in line with petrol and diesel products.

The largest increase has been for the Small car sector at 1.79% or £232 per car and suggests that the volume of demand for these cars is improving and the volume in the market decreasing. This is supported by the market share data that shows that the volume of Small Petrol Hybrids has dropped by 15% since Lockdown began.

Uncharacteristically the retail pricing for BEVs showed a minimal decrease of 0.09% in retail prices overall across the period. The chart below shows the performance by sector.

Data powered by Cazana

Overall pricing has been more volatile in the last week for BEV’s than it has been recently. With only 2 sectors showing an increase in prices the largest drops affected the Supermini and Sports car sectors which account for only just over 0.01 % of the total retail adverts. It is the Medium car sector that takes the largest share of retail adverts at the moment with 0.27% and the move here was down by 0.25% or £49 per car.

The positive news is the increase of 1.15% and 0.53% for the Large and SUV sectors respectively. Generally speaking, demand for used BEV’s seems to be increasing and the consumer is more interested in helping drive down pollution. The effect that lockdown has had on air quality has been remarkable and there is a strong possibility that the COVID virus will help with demand for more eco-friendly cars.

The final chart looks at the performance of the last 7-day period in comparison with pricing activity during the same period in 2019. This is important to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic may be affecting pricing movement when compared to a normal open marketplace.

Data powered by Cazana

This chart clearly demonstrates the difference between last year’s retail pricing market moves and those taking place in 2020. In this period the data has shown retail pricing is more stable which is positive considering some of the speculation given by other market pricing providers. If the impetus behind online trading and safe delivery continues, and the UK begins to come out of lockdown in 2 weeks then pricing may become more variable although stock replacement concerns will in all likelihood mean that any initial drops are replaced by stability and increases in pricing for certain power types and market sectors. The detail is key and using realtime data gives an edge over those who are using subjective legacy data for their pricing assumptions.

Retail prices have continued to shift during the last week as a spark of confidence and activity begins to return to the UK automotive sector. There is little doubt that the retail consumer is continuing to look at vehicles online and there are more examples of cars being sold and now actually delivered as well whilst the dealer sector seeks to ensure they are in a position to address the upcoming return to proper market activity as the country prepares to come out of lockdown. Verbal discussions with the larger dealer groups suggest that many, but not all, are capable of ensuring customers can buy online with confidence that their new car will be delivered safely. The increase in the number of dealers now capable of providing the full online journey from enquiry, through remote or socially distanced viewing and the finance process is generally impressive given the current circumstances.

The government is now due to make an announcement on May 10th to reveal how they will begin to bring the UK out of lockdown and this is exciting news for every person in the country. The important thing is to avoid a second wave of infections and for the automotive sector, a U shape dip in the market performance for the year will be the best outcome possible. However, it is worth noting that the original confidence in used car activity experienced in the Chinese and German markets seems to have waned a little and the UK would be wise to learn from the experience of other countries.

With retail pricing still moving and stock beginning to sell, the realisation that vehicles will need to be replaced is beginning to strike home and therefore market wide pricing drops are looking increasingly unlikely. The chart below shows the pricing performance by percentage week on week of petrol-powered cars comparing the period starting on April 29th to the previous period starting April 22nd.

Data powered by Cazana

During the last period, retail pricing for petrol powered cars saw a tiny increase of 0.01% overall which is interesting in the fact that a level of confidence may have deterred dealers from moving prices downwards. The SUV sector saw the biggest shift with pricing dropping by -0.72% reflecting a drop of £133 per car, taking the average price per vehicle to £18,410.

The Executive car sector saw the biggest gain at 0.4% or £115 per car although this sector reflects just 0.63% of the total retail market share. Of note is that retail pricing in the volume Small and Medium petrol car sectors has remained pretty steady. These sectors represent 13.2% and 12.8% of total retail advert share so stability here is both encouraging and important.

The good news continues when looking at diesel powered car performance where the total retail price movement was another small increase of 0.03% just marginally better than the previous weekly insight report.

Data powered by Cazana

The largest drop in retail pricing for diesel cars cam in the SUV sector which somewhat surprisingly saw a decline of -0.8%, which was the primary reason for this fuel type showing such a minimal price increase overall. This sector takes a significant 17.3% of the retail market as a whole and this drop in average pricing reflects a move of £176 per car. The greatest increase in price was for the small car sector which saw an uplift of 0.5% or £34 per car which negates the -0.4% drop seen in the previous period.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector saw a rise in the last 7-day period as shown in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

For the last period the total market sector recorded an increase of 0.39% which is good news given that there was a drop in pricing in the previous period. There a mix of moves for this fuel type although it is important to remember that petrol hybrid cars are still in a growth phase. The biggest mover was the Sports car sector with a 2.45% uplift in prices, but moves for these cars tend to appear to be more volatile due to the low volumes. In this case just they represent 0.07% of the retail market adverts with SUVs taking the largest share at 1.62%, also recording the largest fall in pricing at 0.67 or £187 per car.

The BEV sector showed the greatest retail price increase of all the fuel types at an uplift of 0.8% and this brought the average price for a BEV to £29,660. The chart below highlights the peaks and troughs by sector.

Data powered by Cazana

The good news is that overall, pricing showed the largest increase of all fuel types and the chart demonstrates that this was largely driven by the Large car sector with an increase of 2.4%. Just three of the 8 market sectors recorded a drop in pricing with the most significant being -0.69% for the Small car sector which negates the uplift shown in the previous period.

The last chart looks at the performance of the last 7-day period in comparison with pricing activity during the same period in 2019. This is important to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic may be affecting pricing movement when compared to a normal open marketplace.

Data powered by Cazana

This chart clearly demonstrates the difference between last years market moves and those taking place in 2020, highlighting that retail pricing is more stable which is positive considering some of the speculation given by other market pricing providers. If the impetus behind online trading and safe delivery continues and the country begins to come out of lockdown in the coming weeks then pricing may become more variable although stock replacement concerns will in all likelihood mean that any initial drops are replaced by stability and increases in pricing for certain power types and market sectors. Detail is key and using realtime data gives an edge over those who are using subjective legacy data for their pricing assumptions.

The UK automotive insurance sector has seen significant change during the lockdown period although it is fortunate enough to still be active and operational on most levels. Whilst many other parts of the UK economy are stalled the insurance industry has by its very nature still been providing excellent levels of customer service and maintaining its communication with customers both current and new.

Despite the fact that many cars are parked on driveways right now, the need for insurance has not disappeared and as such requests for renewals and new customer quotations have remained high. There have been a number of initiatives launched to help those on lower income as a result of being furloughed to both stay with their current provider and most importantly for them and other road users, keep their vehicle insured. Equally keyworkers and staff that have to work from a business premises have still been on the road and although the number of accidents and subsequent insurance claims has dropped, the need for vehicles to be assessed and then either repaired or stored has remained. The way in which these assessments have been carried out has had to change and the majority of motor engineers now have the right level of PPE and social distancing measures in place to ensure that when a site visit has to take place, it can be done in a safe way for everyone.

However, it is what comes next that is important and identifying the future issues and planning to meet the challenges of the post lockdown period are imperative. Firstly, it is important to acknowledge that the accident rate is likely to ramp up reasonably swiftly once people return to a more normal life. In fact, in all probability the accident rate is set to increase to pre lockdown levels quite simply because people have not driven for such a long period of time. There is a strong likelihood that there will be more cars on the road going forward as people not only shun public transport but also seek to travel more in the UK rather than going abroad. Concerns over international travel may see more people take to the UK roads for leisure purposes and the new and used car market may be set for increased transactions off the back of the consumer seeking a safer way to travel. Increased transactions means increased demand which may well result in higher car prices and the chart below shows how retail pricing has been moving week on week since lockdown was announced on the evening of March 23rd 2020:-

Data Powered by Cazana

The previous chart clearly shows that prices for all fuel types except petrol hybrid cars have increased over the four-week period covered. What is certain is that with more vehicles on the road, traffic levels will increase and therefore there will be an uplift in the number of road traffic accidents that will need to be dealt with and also an increase in retail consumer demand for cars.

With an increase in the volume of accidents due to more people travelling, and less road sense awareness, the requirement for Motor Engineers might increase. The current claims processes may become clogged with outstanding settlements and resolution of these cases may be delayed by a lack of resource. That said, the accelerated change in technology in the last few weeks has enabled Motor Assessors to be able to work in the field more safely and also look to the driver and their cooperation to make life simpler. For the less serious accidents drivers themselves have been asked to help by using new technology and apps to assess the accident damage on their own, adhering to some strict app-based industry given guidelines to return accident damage information to the Motor Engineers to assess and finalise prior to settlement. Going forward the volume and quality of these apps is set to increase, and assessor and insurance company operational procedures will need to adapt to what could be described as social distance friendly solutions.

One of the other potential pinch areas is around the repair of the cars. As it stands right now some cars are being stored ready for post lockdown repair. This has been necessary due to the low volume of paint repair shops that are able to open. The other issue has been around parts supply and this problem will not be resolved immediately once the lockdown ends. The parts supply chain may take several weeks to return to normal and if the lockdown period persists for too long there is also the possibility that some parts suppliers may not be around to resume business.

One of the final areas set to change in the short term is the number and type of fraud cases that are put in front of the insurance companies. It has already been acknowledged that the number of fraud instances has increased, and this could be either due to the number of cases actually increasing, or that with less overall claims to handle at the moment they are easier to spot and investigate. It has been further suggested that the reason for the uplift in fraud claims is due to the fact that there is a degree of financial squeeze on some of the population that may be inspiring creative claims in a bid to help make ends meet.

Whatever the reason the need to deal with them swiftly and efficiently is imperative and Cazana have noticed a significant upturn in demand for data to help identify current and past vehicle condition and history via data and insight. In addition, from a vehicle pricing perspective the realtime retail based pricing solutions required to settle claims, quickly carefully and most important fairly has also increased notably given that traditional valuation providers have no trade data from the currently dormant auctions on which to base their manually edited monthly output.

In conclusion, the insurance sector has not only remained active but adapted swiftly and effectively to the lockdown period and the challenges and changes it has already brought. It is also clear that the industry has some changes ahead and planning for operational improvement needs to start as soon as possible if it has not done so already to ensure that they remain at the cutting edge of efficiency and profitability and the use of high quality realtime data will be an integral part of that shift.

The last week has seen further retail price movements across the UK automotive market as the dealer sector begins to realise that online sales are beginning to improve. With the recent confirmation that under controlled conditions cars can be handed over to customers, there has been an upturn in enquiries and the number of deposits being taken online. Indicators show that there has been a significant increase in the number of franchised and independent dealers refining their online presence and including the crucial “buy online” feature that so many were missing at the beginning of the lockdown period.

Online transactions will be enhanced by effective messaging and support from the finance sector and Cazana have noted a marked increase in the volume of interest and subsequent confirmed data requests from this part of the automotive sector. Retail driven price data is the only truly effective way of understanding current and future risk at present, especially where traditional data providers have no reliable insight to offer.

The final part of the sales journey is the vehicle handover, which is not an easy task to complete under the current market conditions, but following guidance from the government and shared by the NFDA (National Franchised Dealers Association)and the BVRLA (British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association), many small to mid-size logistics companies are increasing their market services and not only satisfying current demand but preparing for a post lockdown environment where social distancing will be essential to help counter the further spread of COVID-19.

Looking at the retail market price movements, and the data displayed in the first chart looks at average pricing performance for petrol cars by market sector for the whole retail market between the period commencing on April 22nd and the previous period commencing April 15th.

Data powered by Cazana

During the previous week, petrol powered cars experienced a total downward market shift – 0.29% which is marginally more than the 0.2% for the previous week. The biggest pricing move for petrol cars came from the Sports Car sector with a drop of -0.61% when compared to the previous week. This was followed closely by a -0.54% drop in the Luxury Car segment reflecting perhaps the sensitive nature of this higher priced sector where the average cost new is £40,381. The slower depreciating cars come from the smaller car segments and highlight that for petrol powered cars searches and therefore demand may be stronger across the Supermini, Small and Large car sectors.

Diesel prices moved far less in the last 7-day period with an increase of just 0.02% as highlighted in the chart below. This is a return to stability after the drop of -0.9% in the previous period which had come as something of a surprise:-

Data powered by Cazana

The biggest diesel-powered pricing move came for the Small car sector with a price reduction of -0.4% which in real terms is a drop of £27 per unit given that the average price is now £6774. This may be reflecting the apathy towards small diesels in the market as noted in previous weeks. Prices for diesel powered Superminis and Sports cars increased by 0.34% and 0.26% although it is important to note that these sectors account for just 0.03% and 2.65% of the total retail market.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector saw a fall in the last 7-day period as shown in the chart below:-

Data powered by Cazana

Only the Executive and SUV sectors showed a minimal increase in retail pricing where all others recorded a drop. The total sector pricing move was a drop of -0.47% which was greatly influenced a dip of 1.26% for the Sports sector reflecting a drop of £603 per car although this sector only represents 0.06% of the total retail market. SUVs represent the largest total market share for petrol hybrid powered cars at 1.51%. The largest rise in prices at 0.12% came for petrol hybrid Executive cars.

For the BEV propulsion type, there was also a slight drop in retail pricing. The total shift in this fuel type was a decline of -0.34% although this average figure masked some larger shifts emphasizing the need to look deeper into the data. The chart below highlights the peaks and troughs by sector:-

Data powered by Cazana

The most significant uplift in values came in the small car sector which is the keenest area of the BEV market right now perhaps due to the size and usability of this type of vehicle. Prices increased by 0.7% or £96 per vehicle where the average market retail price is currently £13,621. This positive was offset by downward moves for the Executive, SUV and Sports sectors although these do represent a very small part of the total retail market at sub 0.01% each.

The last chart looks at the performance of the last 7-day period in comparison with pricing activity during the same period in 2019. This is important to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic may be affecting pricing movement when compared to a normal active market:-

Data powered by Cazana

Data in this chart clearly shows that in 2019 retail pricing by fuel type was moving downwards whereas in 2020 the decrease in pricing is far lighter and diesel-powered cars have shown a very small increase. Two reasons can be concluded form this. Firstly, there is a perception of greater consumer demand for cars in 2020, which despite lockdown could be true. Secondly, it is possible that dealers are not changing their pricing. Cazana data indicates that whilst there has been a drop in the number of dealers moving prices, between 55% and 60% of dealers are still altering their price position weekly.

To summarise, the UK market is still active from a pricing perspective week on week. With clear guidance on how vehicles may be handed over to both key workers and the retail consumer the volume of sales that can be completed has now increased. Coupled with an uplift in the number of businesses that have improved their sales operations to offer an online buying facility and the industry is beginning to see a glimmer of hope and understand the shape of things to come post lockdown.

There is plenty of concern and discussion around what is happening or perhaps not happening in the UK automotive sector right now. It is difficult to identify the level of current operational review around key issues predominantly keeping staff safe and a shop window to the consumer open and relevant. This is very important though and not surprisingly this type of deep operational review has proven somewhat reactionary to a pandemic nobody expected would happen and the likes of which has severely hampered commerce on a global basis. A couple of week ago the government announced an extension to the lockdown period which was not a complete surprise but at the same time unwelcome. The political opposition are demanding a strategic government plan for post lockdown activity in the UK which is frankly a little ahead of time, and a document that will inevitably need to change along the way and essentially become a stick with which the seemingly supportive political competitors will beat the government.

Looking ahead rather than at where the industry is now, and there will be several key operational challenges coming over the horizon. The future of buying and selling used cars in the retail environment has most assuredly fundamentally altered, and changes put in place either now or in the coming weeks will need to be able to facilitate higher volumes of online sales and safer showroom interaction with a return to face to face sales likely to come in far lower volumes. But the question is how much thought has been given to the reality of restarting frozen operational processes.

From day one there will be cars that have been sold online that will need to be delivered swiftly and safely. Various aspects need to be considered, the most important of which is the safety of both the car and the people involved in the transaction. One of the most important tasks is for dealers to be ready to make sure that every car that is touched in any way can be completely sanitised before it is either test-driven or handed over to the new owner. This is no mean feat, and advice from the members of the VRA (Vehicle Remarketing Association) indicate there are at least 40 different areas of the inside of a car that will need to be cleaned before somebody different gets inside. Whether leaving the car standing for 72 hours after its final valet is sufficient is yet to be agreed upon but it is an important consideration as is the cleanliness of the exterior.

On another note it is critical to remember that stock cars have been sitting idle for over 3 weeks already. This means that from a mechanical point of view some cars will need to have a trip through the workshop to ensure that they are safe and fit to be on sale at all. Standing for periods of time can result in a low battery and the resulting engine management lights, often purely related to low power supply, will need to be addresses. However modern electronics can cause other issues through lack of use too and these need to be checked too. Even when cars are in stock for a period of time whilst on sale, they are inevitably started and left to run and also periodically moved round the forecourt too and the industry must remember with a further period of lockdown it could mean cars that have not been moved for 8 weeks or more.

Other mechanical issues to check for could be brakes sticking and perhaps with tarnished and lightly rusted discs, tyres now at low pressure, air-con systems that may need recharging and nav and infotainment systems that may need to be reprogrammed due to lack of use. Perhaps of a significant note may be the need to check that diesel particulate filters are in good order and some cars may need running to regenerate the filter and keep the system clean and ready for either demonstration or customer delivery.

These mechanical focussed issues will also bring a level of difficulty to the remarketing sector for similar reasons. Remarketing operations and auction houses are used to churning stock as quickly as possible and as such there may be some cars that come to the wholesale market that may be masking issues that will require greater preparation cost when passing through the dealer workshops for their pre-sales inspections. Consideration must also be given to how that new piece of stock, whether a new or used vehicle, will be delivered and left with the dealer.

With internal processes addressed, and to be honest social distancing in a workshop is easier than in a showroom, thought must be given to how the car is then valeted and given its final check by the sales team before it is ready for handover. This is in some ways one of the hardest procedures to quantify as there are so many different variables. By nature of the fact that a car needs to be thoroughly valeted, it means that either one or multiple people will be touching many surfaces in a multitude of different places around the car and particularly the interior. Once complete, where will the vehicle be left, for how long and who will be the first person to touch the car? Sales and handover staff or the customer? What is clear is that the procedure will have to be transparent to the customer and well documented for health and safety reasons and in all likelihood will mean that more storage space will be required to cope with distancing and also safe storage before handover.

Consideration must also be given to the effect that these extra costs will have on vehicle margins. Operational excellence tends to come at a cost and the question is how this can be covered off and the business still can retain a workable margin. There is some belief that once the wholesale market reopens then there will be some cheap cars on offer. Equally, there is a belief with some that the 2020 market has suffered significant price reductions, but the Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight has proven that retail pricing has been stable, and in some cases increased. The 2020 market was also stronger in price terms in the last 7-day period than at the same time in 2019 as demonstrated in the chart below:-

Data powered by Cazana

This chart shows that the average price by fuel type compared with the same period last year has risen across three of the four fuel types. The drop in the average price for petrol hybrid cars reflects the type of car now available in the market rather than the desirability in any way. In addition, it is prudent to remember that it will take time for the remarketing supply chain to ramp up to speed again and some sources are quoting up to 4 weeks before they expect to be at a normal run rate which means that supply of wholesale stock may push retail prices further up for a period of time as supply struggles to meet demand. Unfortunately, this means that with increased operational costs margins may well be squeezed, putting extra pressure on businesses for a while.

To conclude it is evident that a great deal of planning needs to be undertaken to ensure that post lockdown the dealer staff and the retail consumer can be comfortable when transacting either a new or used car. Operational efficiencies are always key but in this instance, the rule book needs to be rewritten for the safety of all concerned and the quicker the better. It will be very interesting to see how the European markets and China cope with this part of post lockdown return to a new type of normality and thereafter what lessons can be learned prior to the UK opening the dealership doors once again.

Retail prices in the last week have continued to shift slightly as the market becomes more accustomed to relying on their online presence and retail consumers reserving and ordering cars online. Sales volumes themselves are a fraction of what they used to be, but it is encouraging to note that there is still a low level of retail sales activity. This perhaps highlights the importance of having both a compelling website and maintaining social media communication.

There are many reports of dealers handing over cars to keyworkers which is both encouraging and slightly worrying. Ensuring a safe transaction has to be paramount at the moment and this is not an easy task. The recent announcement that vehicle movements can start to take place again is also a concern to much of the industry and where the BVRLA (British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association) heralded this as a step forward the VRA (Vehicle Remarketing Association) are more concerned about the safety implications. Whilst beginning to revitalise the supply chain is necessary, a duty of care for the employees and customers is also essential, and this position will be interesting to watch.

Looking at the retail market price movements, the data displayed in the first chart looks at average pricing performance for petrol cars by market sector for the whole retail market between the period commencing on April 15th and the previous period commencing April 8th.

Data powered by Cazana

Throughout the previous 7-day period, retail pricing for petrol-powered cars has moved downwards by a minimal 0.2%. The largest drop was for the Luxury Car sector recording a 0.8% drop which with an average cost new of £40,599 means that prices dipped by around £320. This sector can be a little volatile given the nature of the cars included. Conversely, the highest rise in pricing was for the SUV sector which with a varied profile of models can be pretty competitive. Vehicle volume in this sector is also quite high and it takes just over 10% of the total advertised market share and is, therefore, quite a competitive sector with petrol propulsion.

The diesel market has shifted more noticeably with an average drop of 0.9% for retail pricing. It is worth noting that the largest move came in the Supermini sector which is not known for having a lot of diesel variants in the market and takes just 0.03% of total retail advert content. Although to follow the lead of the 3% downward move in Supermini retail prices, the Small car sector fell by 1.5% and this perhaps highlights a little competition and perceived over supply in this area of the used car market as seen in the next chart: –

Data powered by Cazana

The chart below reflects the activity in the petrol hybrid market which, generally speaking, has seen a positive performance across all but two sectors. As a reminder, this fuel type is not present in all market sectors, and the poorest performing Small and Sports car sectors are represented in lower volumes. However, they have dragged the average retail price move downwards to -0.05% over the period as shown in the chart below:-

Data powered by Cazana

The largest growth in retail pricing has been in the SUV sector and with an average retail asking price of £28,082 retail pricing increased by £480 per car. This was closely followed by an increase of 1.38% for the Large cars sector reflecting £277 per car. This activity may be as a result of increased searches for this type of propulsion and a low level of stock in market.

The good news also extends to BEV retail pricing too with an overall uplift of 0.4% across the sector. Only the Sports and MPV sectors recorded a drop-in pricing which if excluded from the data would have meant the sector would have seen a growth of 1.57% rather than 0.4% as detailed in the chart below.

The biggest increase in retail pricing came in the small car sector which saw an increase of £437 per vehicle based on an average retail price of £13,525. The position in this fuel type sector is likely to be a mirror of the petrol hybrid sector where the retail consumer is beginning to show more interest in the propulsion type and where stock levels in the market are likely to fail to meet demand post lockdown.

The last chart is very relevant and comes as an answer to a number of queries around how the 2020 market is performing in comparison with 2019. There has been a great deal of speculation over how the COVID-19 market may have been heavily negatively affected by the current lockdown as this answers the question:-

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at the retail price movements for the last 7-day period as a comparison as to what happened in 2019. It is encouraging to note that whilst the overall market movement last year across all fuel types was an average increase of 0.33%, the 2020 average figure is an increase of 0.05%. Given the circumstances, this is entirely acceptable if perhaps surprising to some.

In conclusion, retail pricing is still moving, and it is vital to remember that whilst actual sales are largely paused there are still transactions happening and some competition in the market with pricing moving both up and down. This is a healthy place to be for the moment and understanding the market nuances is essential if the automotive, finance, OEM, Leasing and contract hire businesses are to be ready for a post lockdown market.