The Legislative List: The summer version

The Oregon legislative candidates are out knocking on doors -- or at least they should be in this glorious weather - and it's time for the latest edition of my Legislative List. For the uninitiated, this is my vainglorious and perhaps foolish attempt to list the Top 10 legislative seats most likely to change partisan hands - in order.

The battleground has shifted some since my last Legislative List came out in March, but the bottom line is still the same: the Democrats are most in peril. Of my Top 10 seats, Democrats are playing defense in seven of them.

In a way, that is no surprise since Democrats won so many swing seats in the last two elections and now have so many marginal seats to defend in a tougher political climate.

What is odd is that much of the action is concentrated geographically. Six of the races on my list include a Senate district in Washington County and another Senate district running from Hood River down the east side of the Portland metropolitan area, as well as the four House districts contained within those two Senate districts.

You still don't find insiders predicting that Democrats will lose their majority in either chamber. But their three-fifths majority in the House and Senate is certainly imperiled.

With that in mind, here's the full list:

1. Freshman Rep. Judy Stiegler, D-Bend, rode the 2008 Democratic surge to victory, but now faces a much more dismal political atmosphere. The latest bad news: Her husband, longtime Deschutes County D.A. Mike Dugan, was ousted by voters in the May primary after he defended the Measure 66 and 67 tax increases. As it happens, the tax measures, which Stiegler supported in the Legislature, lost handily in the county. Republican Jason Conger, an attorney, has so far reported raising about $65,000 while Stiegler has raised less than $14,000. Previous Rating: 2

2. Republicans were dealt a major blow last month when their candidate, mixed martial arts fighter Chael Sonnen, dropped out of the race for the House District 37 seat being vacated by Rep. Scott Bruun, R-West Linn. Bruun, who is running for Congress, and House GOP leaders backed Aaron Crowley to replace Sonnen, but Republican precinct officials instead went with West Linn resident Julie Parrish. She will have to work hard to catch up the Democratic candidate, attorney Will Rasmussen, who handily won a contested primary. Previous Rating: 5

3. Democrats face a similar problem in Washington County's House District 30. Rep. David Edwards, D-Hillsboro, announced last week he was ending his reelection run because of his wife's illness. Democrats quickly replaced him with veteran teacher Doug Ainge, who has name recognition as the father of New York Jets quarterback Erik Ainge and the brother of former NBA star Danny Ainge. But he will be starting at a major disadvantage to the Republican candidate, attorney Shawn Lindsay, who has been working the district hard for months. Previous Rating: 9

4. House District 51, which is centered in east Clackamas County, is a typical battleground between the two parties, and this year is no exception. It has a small Democratic registration edge but is culturally conservative. Freshman Rep. Brent Barton, D-Clackamas, is leaving to run for the state Senate and this open seat might see one of the most competitive races in the state (bear in mind that my list is ranked by the likelihood of a switch in party control, not which ones will be the closest). Patrick Sheehan, who owns a small advertising agency, won a lively contested primary for the GOP nomination to face Democrat Cheryl Myers, a North Clackamas School Board member. Previous Rating: 1

5. While the battle rages for his old House seat, Barton has his hands full in the Senate district being vacated by retiring Sen. Rick Metsger, D-Welches. Barton, an attorney, is a good fundraiser and sharp campaigner, but so is Republican Chuck Thomsen, a Hood River County commissioner who has the deeper community roots. This may be the race that keeps the Senate leadership of both parties up late on election night waiting to see who wins. Previous rating: 4

6. Rep. Suzanne VanOrman, D-Hood River, is the other endangered freshman Democrat on my list. She's also in a once-Republican district facing a tougher political climate and a sharper opponent - Republican Mark Johnson, a contractor and local school board member - than she did in 2008. Previous rank: 3

7. Rep. Chuck Riley, D-Hillsboro, is running for the Senate and his wife, Katie Riley, is hoping to move into his seat. House District 29 leans to the Democrats, and local party activists are known for their strong field operation. But Republicans recruited a sharp candidate in Katie Eyrie Brewer, an accountant and Hillsboro planning commissioner. And local GOPers also claim that they've sharpened their own grassroots efforts and won't be outworked like they have been in recent elections. Previous rating: 6

8. Chuck Riley is taking on Sen. Bruce Starr, R-Hillsboro, in what will be one of the heavyweight legislative races of the year. The business lobby is behind Starr and the conventional wisdom is that he has the edge. But Riley is a good campaigner and is used to being underestimated. Previous rating:

9. House Democrats hope to offset any losses by going hard at two GOP incumbents: Reps. Bill Kennemer of Oregon City and Jim Weidner of Yamhill. You could argue that of the two, Weidner is in a more conservative district. But at this point he seems to have the tougher race. Weidner had a rocky freshman year and he drew something of a celebrity opponent: winemaker Susan Sokol Blosser. She's already raised more than $100,000 and her donor list reads like a Who's Who of Oregon's business and political establishment. Still, as I said, it's a conservative district, Weidner is personable on the doorstep and he has strong community ties. Previous rating: 8

10. In my earlier List, I found no obvious race for this spot. There are still several other races that have the potential of developing but aren't there yet. At this time I think the No. 10 spot ought to go the Senate race centered on Lake Oswego, where Senate Majority Leader Richard Devlin, D-Tualatin, faces a strong challenge from Mary Kremer, a former banker. Her husband, Rob Kremer, is a well-known conservative activist and Republicans would undoubtedly like to make life miserable for Devlin. Democrats are particularly worried that mega-conservative donor Loren Parks has his eye on the race (he gave money before the primary to the Senate GOP caucus, which backed Kremer in her race for the Republican nomination against attorney Steve Griffith). Still, the district has a 7,000-vote Democratic edge in registration and Devlin is an experienced and well-funded campaigner. Previous rating: Unranked