Monday, February 22, 2016

Forum: What's Your Reaction To This Weeks' Primary Results?

Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher's Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week's question: What's Your Reaction To This Week's Primary Results?

GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD: First off, Americans are not hot for dynasty action. Jeb seems a nice enough guy, tons of gubernatorial accomplishments, yet by lecturing Americans that illegal immigration is an act of love Jeb essentially blew his own foot off and he never recovered.

Since SEN Cruz lost in South Cackalackey - can he win anywhere else? Seriously, yet the radio guy w/half his brain tied behind his back and the "Get off the phone ya big dope" cat all tell us what we already know - that the Senator is a conservative with a capital C, SC was the place where Cruz should have blitzed. If he can't win SC - where can he win?

SEN Rubio may benefit from Jeb's escape hatch maneuver - unlocking donors, cash, staff and expertise. Winning FLA, coaxing GOV Kasich to bail out and toss Rubio the support in Ohio and winning Ohio is doable - yet a long shot.

GOV Kasich and Dr Carson could still influence the race in some aspects, yet both cats are about done...

Laura Rambeau Lee,Right Reason : As had been predicted Trump handily won the South Carolina primary, with Rubio and Cruz nearly tied for second place. The Trump momentum continues to build although we still have not heard any substance to his platform. His attraction is his populist appeal, saying what many Americans want to hear. What is surprising is the number of people who profess to be constitutional conservatives that support him. No matter how vulgar or contradictory his statements Trump’s appeal seems to be increasing.

Early on he pledged to not run on a third party ticket even if he is not the GOP nominee, but now he is beginning to speak about the “unfairness” of his treatment by the GOP. It is highly likely he will run as a third party candidate if he does not win the nomination. With the SC primary signaling the end of Jeb Bush’s campaign it appears this is a three man race. Rubio will benefit the most by being the GOP establishment choice.

Cruz has strong support from true constitutional conservatives. The question is will he get enough support to force the RNC to nominate him over Rubio. That doesn’t seem likely. The competition will get uglier going forward and I believe we are witnessing the end of the Republican party as we have known it. The establishment within the party no longer stand for the principles upon which it was founded. True conservatism is being vilified not only by the left but also by the progressive right. Progressives are working in both parties to retain or win the presidency.

How this will all play out at this point is uncertain. We have to remember this is about power and control. The only candidate standing for a return to smaller government of, by, and for the people is Ted Cruz. And with the death of Justice Antonin Scalia the only one of the three we can be confident would nominate a conservative justice to replace him is Ted Cruz.

JoshuaPundit: Nevada first. Bernie just found out that as I predicted, New Hampshire was the highlight and it's all down hill for him from there. The Clinton Machine will eat him alive and even more to the point, many blacks and the vast majority of Muslims won't vote for a Jew, even an irreligious anti-Israel commie like Bernie. South Carolina will be an even bigger rout for him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pack it in after the SEC primary.

South Carolina was supposed to be Ted Cruz's big win, the place where the Cruz Crusade was going to march on the shoulders of the Evangelicals to shut down Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, move on to win the SEC primary and seal the deal for the nomination. He spent millions on ads, imported thousands of campaign workers and campaigned hard across the state. There were even polls showing Cruz ahead of Donald Trump, which have now of course vanished into the memory hole. Even if the Cruz Crusade didn't quite pull off a win, at the very least he was supposed to finish a strong second and split delegates with Donald Trump.

Instead, he got decisively defeated and defeated badly, finishing third behind Marco Rubio by a hair. In his own way, so did Marco Rubio, who had likewise courted Evangelicals and was hoping for a stronger finish, but the big plus for Rubio was that Jeb Bush suspended his campaign and Senator Rubio has solidified his position as the GOP Establishment champion, the anti-Trump. He will likely get a chunk, but not all of Jeb's votes. Neither Cruz or Rubio got any of South Carolina's 50 delegates.

I found the exit polls interesting. Donald Trump carried every demographic handily except those whom self identified themselves as 'very conservative' in which he placed second by 5% or so. He won every county easily with the exception of Charleston (which Rubio won by less than a thousand votes) and Richland, where the state capitol Columbia is located. Both areas are a bit more 'cosmopolitan' and moderate than the state as a whole, although Donald Trump also won handily across the state in those whom characterized themselves as 'moderate.' Go figure.

My personal opinion for what little it's worth is that a lot of the Evangelicals deserted Ted Cruz for two reasons; first, the anger they they share at Washington is a greater force than someone pandering to them on a faith based basis and two, they perceived a huge gap between Ted Cruz's professed values and the way his campaign has been conducted thus far. I actually heard as much from two long time correspondents whom live in the Palmetto State. People might forget what you say, but they never forget how you make them feel.

I know this is going to upset some people, but from a sheer horse race perspective it's difficult to see Ted Cruz getting the nomination at this point. The delegate math is against him. And he's not only competing with Marco Rubio for the title of 'anti-Trump' but for millions of dollars from the pro-amnesty, pro unlimited immigration, and pro continued H1b abuse Club For Growth. They've been funding both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio quite lavishly up to now, as well as spending millions on attack ads aimed at Donald Trump. That kind of funding only happens if you embrace the Club For Growth's agenda. And both Rubio and Cruz have not only accepted the money but have been avidly chasing it. Ted Cruz's problem is that Rubio isn't going anywhere and he's likely going to be considered a better investment by the amnesty lobby now than Ted Cruz is. Another problem is that as this stuff becomes more commonly known ( few of Ted Cruz's supporters are probably aware of it), people may perceive Ted Cruz as untrue to the principals he espouses, a problem Marco Rubio isn't going to have. But both of them probably have enough momentum to keep the fight going on for quite some time.

I doubt John Kasich is going anywhere for awhile either. There's no percentage in his doing so. He likely has the ability to deliver Ohio and might very well trade that for a place on the ticket.

Well, there you have it!

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