802, look at the weekly charts for the CRB index, or for some of the commodity indexes / ETFs (mainly oil, coal, agriculture), and see if you agree with my observations below:

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My first observation is that prices have been consolidating for 3 to 6 months, depending on what you’re looking at.Â

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Using IKH, it seems that prices have cut the Tenkan sen (but still far from the Kijun sen), and the Chikou Span is close (maybe a month away) from crossing historical price action as well. We may see some whipsaw action unless we see a 10~15% bump to current prices to take the Chikou clear from the historical price. If it happens, we may get a few months’ upward movement until we hit the next big kumo. A flat Senkou Span (ie. cloud top/bottom) is supposedly a price attractor though, and I’m seeing this flat border in the upcoming clouds. So, there could be more in store yet after that.

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Using MACD, there’s actually a bullish crossover (9d vs 26d) from Jan~Mar onwards (depending on which chart you look at). It’s still far from horizontal line, so this is still a weak bullish crossover, but at least that’s a start.

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Volume-wise, it’s mixed. Depending on which chart you’re looking at, you could see slowed down distribution, or a bit of accumulation, etc.

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Interestingly, the semicon sector seems to have the same trajectory as the commodities where consolidation is concerned. Look at the SMH ETF (Semiconductors Holders). In fact, SMH is very close to challenging the Kijun.Â

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Of the charts of the ETFs I looked at above, I prefer these (not necessarily in order of merit):

I’d like to see a good 10% ~ 15% bump on current price levels in the next month or so to get a good signal. This is mainly just based off price/Tenkan crossover + Chikou confirmation though, which is supposedly weaker than the longer-term price/Kijun or Tenkan/Kijun crossover with Chikou confirmation.