Standalone Pages

Monday, June 20, 2011

AUBurgeddon: What does Vegas know that we don’t?

According to Phil Steele, the Golden Nugget Casino has already posted early lines on what it considers marquee games for the upcoming 2011 College Football Season. As is typical with early spreads, a little movement here and there can be expected as money moves to one side or the other.

It’s worth noting early that these lines are NOT predictions by the casino. They’re not picks, they are a means of regulating the flow of betting so that a relatively equal amount of money goes to each side of the book. When money moves in significant amounts, the line follows. It’s a bit more complicated, but explaining how Vegas works is beyond the scope of this post. What I’m interested in finding out is this—why are the lines in Auburn’s so-called marquee games moving against teh fambly?

Steele notes:

Biggest Line Movements

(Bold Moved in their Favor)

Pts Moved

Notre Dame-Michigan

6

Michigan-Northwestern

6

Tennessee-Florida

5.5

TCU-Air Force

5

LSU-Mississippi St

5

Boise St-Georgia

4.5

Mississippi St-Auburn

4.5

Utah-BYU

4.5

Auburn-Clemson

4.5

BYU-TCU

4.5

Auburn-Georgia

4.5

One thing that jumped out to me right away was that defending National Champ Auburn is currently an underdog in EIGHT games for the upcoming season! Also it is interesting to note that several of the big line movements involve the same teams in Michigan, Georgia, BYU and TCU.

What leaps off the screen at me is that virtually every one of Auburn’s marquee games has line movement, and none of the movement favors the 2010 champs. In fact, of the 11 biggest movers listed by Steele, Auburn is one of the teams affected in three matchups, more than any other team on the list. Further, in the Mississippi State game, Auburn has gone from being the favorite to the dog.