Bihar: My Projections

It was advantage Modi during the Lok Sabha election last year. It was advantage Nitish during the bypolls that followed. But much has changed since then. Nitish has lost Jitan Majhi and Laloo has lost Pappu Yadav. Not only has Nitish lost Jitan Majhi, he has lost him to the BJP camp.

If it were the BJP, Paswan and Kushwaha one one side, and Nitish, Laloo, Congress, NCP, Left, Jitan, Pappu on the other side, it was a 50-50 contest with a slight advantage to the BJP still. That was the case during the bypolls, but that is no longer the case. Pappu is in neither camp right now.

The BJP has declared a desire to contest 185 seats, Paswan wants 60, Kushwaha 40, Jitan wants 40, Pappu is open to being part of the alliance. Considering there are only 245 seats available, they might go for a 130-35-25-30-25 kind of split.