This is a good definition of market timing: Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements . You can clearly see that rebalancing according to a investment policy statement is quite different. Th...

Most investors nearing retirement want to reduce portfolio volatility to minimize big swings in asset value so they can make reliable decisions. Those with lots of financial ability may not worry about it so much.

An interesting Vanguard study on rebalancing. July/2010. This study is not new, but I could not find reference to it. Anyway, I'm sure there are lots of newer readers who have not seen it. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwifsdDs6uTQAh...

desiderium wrote: Possible justification of fees (I am looking at 0.5-0.85% range) through use of more clever factor-based vehicles and better management overall. I'm not sure what better management actually means. If you have a rather simple 3-6 fund portfolio it just isn't hard to manage. A clever...

In my opinion your desired asset allocation of 70/30 stocks/bonds is very aggressive at age 70. In my opinion at age 70 something the range of 60/40 to 40/60 stocks/bonds would be within reason. That would be across all accounts, viewing all accounts together as a single unified portfolio. A 50/50 ...

Thanks everyone. I like the beer analogy. I was wondering if there was some specific advantage to ETF besides small initial investments of which I was unaware. Other than what you mention, there is no advantage. Vanguard ETFs are different jackets for the corresponding funds. Some, including John B...

What split do you recommend? I'm most concerned about 20 years from now. My only other account is 100k savings at a local credit union. I would like to invest most of that after changing the IRAs, perhaps in a municipal bond fund that's tax free. Is that a good option? Thank you all for your helpfu...

You're right, it's terrible. I noticed they have a 0.74% 12b-1 fee, which is really upping the ER. It's so bad I really wonder if it's in compliance. American has already dropped the front-end load, and I'm surprised the high 12-1 is still used. I think the employees would win a law suit if they dec...

tomyoneto, To review, you have two accounts at Fidelity, one is a rollover and now in an IRA, and the other is a 401k plan. Then you have, or want to open, another taxable account to save for 3-5 years. Is this correct? Also, what is your current tax bracket? For the IRA rollover, (# I) I would sugg...

Here's a really nice calculator for RMD. At 70-1/2, spouse <10 years younger, initial withdrawal is 3.6%. At age 73, it is 4%. Play with the Rate of Return slide and watch the chart at the bottom chance shape.

As I recall, Merriman's website has papers on how his portfolios have been developed. I would recommend that those curious investigate that resource. Such as this? http://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-retirement-portfolio/ He is a little schizophrenic. He has some good indexing papers. Then he also...

I sometimes want to post a M* chart and I get the response that the image is too large or dimensions are unknown. I would like to know how to resize smaller. Photo editor, or is there something I can do at M*?

Here's a very simple answer: If you have to ask, then it's not a good idea. There are also clues in your post that are troubling-- It consistently gets 10% real returns No, it has gotten... I see no reason it wouldn't work in the future Something in me feels it's too good to be true I'm scared of a ...

If you haven't used M* fund data page, look here. Input the ticker symbol in the quote box at the top of the page and you will see star rating and medal rating. However, even M* says the have no predictive value. What is it you are trying to do? http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-re...

You are not going to lose it. It may take a dip, but if it does, it will come back. Relax, you did the right thing. Later, or maybe sooner, the market may take a dip and you will be glad you followed your plan.

We are getting off track here, so I suggest we open a new post on what risk really is. As far as this statement goes past performance does not guarantee future results; isn't it simply a truism? Two good definitions of risk: Risk is the possibility that a sound strategy may lead to a poor outcome. R...

dlong wrote: Other than Vanguard funds, the Expense Ratio for the rest seems really high. You don't need anything other than the Vanguard options, at least for stocks. Note, if your 401k total fees are really 0.3%, they would be considered very low. The Vanguard options are also extremely low, S&amp...

Park wrote: Paul, you mention that If I did a considerable amount of research, you can't see how I would choose 100% SV. It sounds like the basis of that statement is that I don't mention bonds or large value. You did say you intended to go 100% SV. That means nothing else but SV. No bonds or cash. ...

Thanks, you seem to have done considerable research on this subject, but if you did I can't see how you would choose 100% SV. You also seem to have concerns for current market valuations, so are you going to ignore that and implement 100% small value now? While I agree that value investing is good, ...

What interests me more is avoiding prolonged negative returns. And from what I've seen, the risk of prolonged negative returns is greater with market cap indexing than value investing. I don't believe that's always true, but it might depend on how you define value investing. I'm sure you now realiz...

Lack_ey makes some good points, but overall I think TM balanced is a decent fund, and it's tax-efficiency is high--in the range of total market. A balanced fund like this does not need to be a problem because when you consider the whole portfolio as you should, you can rebalance or change allocation...

There is somewhat of a disconnect here. The article Turn on a Paradigm is all about market cap vs fundamental weighting while Merriman is arguing for small caps and value as part of a fully diversified portfolio. He does not argue the point of market cap weighting except for the idea of overweightin...

If you use factor investing you must be attempting to beat the market. If it does always beat the market, then it will become the market. I think this is a trap for most folks when considering factor investing - that it should yield superior, above-market returns. It is a shame that it is marketed ...

It gets easier as you approach retirement. I would hope that to be the case, but at least in my situation I doubt it. Even at retirement age, I may have some kids in college, be supporting others with special needs, and possibly having to assist with grandkids. Life does not always work out as simp...

Marge, since you are not in the accumulation phase and seem to have a low withdrawal rate, your decision isn't going to cause a problem. Or is that your withdrawal rate is too high and you have to protect yourself from loss? You have also mentioned that you have held through some market drops becaus...

It's not clear, but maybe the OP is saying he cannot contribute to a Roth because income is too high. Saphomd, please clarify what you would like to do. Is the problem high tax for selling, or income is too high to make Roth contribution?

You are showing about 80% stocks at age 60 (5 years before retirement) and that could be risky unless you are able to use a 2.5% withdrawal rate. If 4% is needed, then a 40% loss would cause big problem. If you retire at ~70 you will be about 60% equity, but again, if this is realistic depends on o...

kehyler, I think your plan is good, with the clause that it may be necessary to modify it along the way. Having said that, I would not use your aggressive path nor livesoft's suggestion of no more than 25% bonds. But these are personal decisions and obviously the charts can be tailored to an individ...

park, if I've read you right, your option would be active growth, equal weighted, and maybe minus large caps? Value and growth rotate in periods of outperformance. It is not easy to beat an index of either value of growth over time using active funds, or individual stocks, right? How are you going t...

Peter, here are historical returns for S&P500. You should look at geometric returns at bottom of page. From 1928 through 2015 geometric average has been 9.5%. Current calculations (predictions) for next 10 years is much lower than that average, but who really knows. In 2008, the S&P500 lost ...

Zig, just to be sure you've got it right, VTI (total market) contains 19% mid and 9% small, that is market weight. Your mix above is simply less mid/small compared to market (VTI). The volatility of VTI is currently about 10.9 vs 10.7 for S&P500, so you really don't get higher volatility with VT...

Welcome to the forum, Hey guys, I am a new investor here. I have about 40K cash on hand to invest (for general savings, not retirement, If you aren't planning to keep this until retirement, you don't want to use an IRA because you will get penalized for taking the money out. You have to have taxabl...

jimt, your interest in small caps wouldn't have anything to do with recent performance, would it? Small cap performance is very streaky and unpredictable. Small caps are very difficult to hold for investors who don't thoroughly understand them, and even that is not enough. Investors must also have t...

Welcome to the forum, Hi, all. I am a 26 year old currently looking for advice on how to divide up my roth, rollover, 401K, & taxable account money. I am confused as to what & how many share I should buy for each. Here are my current stats. My AA is 48% US stocks, 32% Intnl stocks, 14% US b...

This discussion is about bailing out of the market, not politics. Something, and it could be any number of things, has spooked the OP and she is considering getting out. That is not a good idea no matter what the envisioned scary thing is. The answer is always the same--don't do it.

Welcome tomyoneto, If you will be needing all the money you've saved in 3 to 5 years, then even with 35% equity you run the risk of 15-20% of it not being there when you need it. That is a very short time to use much equity unless you can do with somewhat less. I would suggest no more than 20% in eq...

marge wrote: My hypothesis is that there in a period of uncertainty coming within the next year, which will lead to a market decline The real fact is every period carries uncertainty, whether you think you see it or not. I agree, the market looks overvalued and there will be an adjustment, which mig...