This week marks the end of term for MPs, and the session closes on something of a high for David Cameron. His Cabinet reshuffle waved goodbye to some respected names, such as Owen Paterson, who writes for us today, and welcomed aboard fresh new talent. A poll commissioned by The Telegraph finds that six in 10 voters think the reshuffle was a step in the right direction for the Tories: even 45 per cent of Labour voters say it was a good thing. Mr Cameron’s goal was plainly to build an election-winning team, and it looks to be the making of one.

It is hardly a surprise to discover that so many voters have an increasingly favourable impression of Mr Cameron’s leadership. The economy is doing well. Unemployment is falling and employment is at record levels. Welfare and tax have been reformed to encourage self-improvement and place a cap on how much money individuals can receive from the state. Michael Gove’s removal may have been driven in part by a perception that he is controversial and divisive, but he leaves behind an extraordinary and very substantial record of reform – free schools, a more rigorous curriculum, tougher exams. Since 2010, some 250,000 fewer pupils are in failing schools.

Crucially, the Tories have proven that conservatism, applied carefully but boldly, can be popular. The voters want public-sector reform, fiscal restraint and a welfare system that is fair but not absurdly generous. They also want to revisit our relationship with the EU, which means that the appointment of Philip Hammond as Foreign Secretary may turn out to be a smart move indeed. Having committed himself to a renegotiation of the terms of our membership, promised an in/out referendum, and tried to resist the rise of arch‑federalist Jean-Claude Juncker, Mr Cameron has united his party behind a rational platform of EU reform – a platform that our poll indicates is winning over Ukip voters.

If many Britons might be inclined to give Mr Cameron an “A” in his end-of-term report, his Coalition partner would probably merit closer to a “C”. Nick Clegg deserves applause for his decision to do the right thing and enter government with the Tories. This required him to jettison some of the unaffordable populist policies typical of a perennial party of opposition – a mature decision that took genuine courage.

Now that the election is approaching, however, he is slipping back into angry opposition mode, as evidenced by his U‑turn last week on the so-called bedroom tax. According to our poll, he is regarded as the least prime-ministerial leader after Nigel Farage. This comes even as Ukip’s numbers continue to fall – apparently confirming the sceptics’ view that they were a momentary rebellious spasm, not a long-term political prospect.

But the lowest grade must surely go to Ed Miliband. It is not just Mr Miliband’s bursts of old-fashioned socialism that have convinced so many that he does not have what it takes, as he floats such growth-killing ideas as a mansion tax, the return of the 50p higher rate, energy price-fixing or rent controls. What also appals is the lazy cynicism of presuming that Labour can cruise to victory thanks to its in-built advantage in the distribution of constituencies. Mr Miliband has chosen not to reach out to the Centre or even to offer serious alternatives to the Government’s policies: better, he thinks, to let the electorate come to him.

Nevertheless, Labour does have a mathematical advantage, which means that it still has a good chance of returning to No 10 at the general election. And Mr Cameron must confront a number of challenges in the coming months: crises in Ukraine and the Middle East that grow worse by the day (touched upon by Michael Fallon, the new Defence Secretary, in these pages), and a referendum battle in Scotland yet to be lost or won. There may not be much legislating to do between now and May 2015, but 10 months is an age in politics and much could happen to change those poll figures.

To win with a majority next year, Mr Cameron has to continue to show strong leadership and clear evidence of his convictions. Voters will reward success – in the form of economic recovery, progress on welfare reform and achieving change in the EU. They will also reward signs that a majority Conservative government will cut their taxes and help to raise their standard of living.

If this month is the end of a parliamentary term, the election next year is the final exam towards which Mr Cameron has been working so very hard. Scraping a pass will not be enough: he needs to beat everyone else handsomely. The reward will be a chance to govern in his own right, his political strategy having been vindicated by the people. Failure will result in a Labour victory and five years of socialism – a fate that Britain can ill afford.