Author Archives: Charles de Trenck

The Division of Global Cop Labor

To keep a long story short: Apart from having messed up big time in Iraq, Afghanistan (who hasn’t?), and Vietnam, the US has generally acted as global cop over the last 70+ years. We all know Pax Americana has had its pros and cons. We also know that the US is pulling back somewhat from the global cop role, but staying in the game, while “allowing” China to ease in a little, while also allowing other countries to assume more regional cop roles. Perhaps Saudi Arabia’s recent Yemen action is a bit of a symbol for the current order. A lot of what the US has done since WW II is its own version of trying to clean up behind the disintegration of British, French, European colonization of the rest of the world … In other words, let’s not just blame the US.

The PLA’s Decadent Western Enemy Distraction Corps standing at attention. Should there ever be war with China, getting attacked by this division might actually make if a bit more bearable (“yeah baby, it hurts so good…”)

Catching Themes

China Merchants has a knack for catching themes. China Merchants Holdings has been a decently managed company in the China context, holding decent port assets. But investors, mainland and foreign, always seem to get taken away by some idea of golden returns. In the late ‘00s there was all this fanfare about its Vietnam investment with billions of HK$ market cap added pretty much on the back of the concept.

Having Shanghai Port Group shares take off in the late ‘00s also helped propel the shares into the stratosphere for awhile, as owning a stake in a Shanghai listed company offered investors participation in China rallies.

Does the Dollar Hold Enough Attraction to Break Out and Hold at Higher Levels?

Now is the time to begin looking at the US dollar’s re-ascendance in a different light as we approach 1:1 against the euro. Shorter term we have to expect some possible panics around flat global growth in the face of a strong dollar. Historically, as we saw in the 1980s in Latin America, US dollar rebounds lead to blow-ups among the weaker global credits, just at the point where the dollar begins a breakout not seen in decades. But, times have also changed and we should expect this round of the dollar beating up some countries to slow earlier than perhaps what we saw in the days of the symbolic Reagan induced fall of the Berlin Wall.

A Den of Corruption

A ruling class, no matter its spots or stripes, is everywhere given to over-privileging its own. And the stronger its hold on power, the greater is its accumulation of wealth relative to those outside the power circles.

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members as major beneficiaries of this massive waste, and therefore also the continued need for Xi Jinping to keep cleaning up the more blatant instances of corruption and wealth transfer.

The commodities boom of the 2000ds proved to be backed by a massive wave of over-production, waste and a social movement to self-enrichment by the privileged class of China. President Xi Jinping in many ways is now contributing to lowering commodity prices as a byproduct of his crackdown.

The Cost of High Property Prices … You Can’t Hide Volatility under a Rug!

A good piece on high retail product costs in China appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 4 September 2013, with the article focussing on the high price of a “pro forma” cup of coffee in China – driven by high rental costs.

The same analysis could be done for HK retail given HK$150 psf averages in Central and a recent record of HK$1,200 psf. Most of us know how hard we have to hunt for good food at a reasonable price, or simply rely on a 7-Eleven, a Maxim’s or a Starbucks for a quick snack in Central. And the insult comes when the Economist dares, despite a noble but outdated attempt, to throw the Big Mac Index low-end HK cost indicator out there to tease us.

The Vikram Pandit Exit … And What Came Before It

Working at Citi for 10 years up to 2008 really drained me. The constant politics and uphill battles really got to me – to the point where I was having nightmares of Citi after I left. I finally got rid of the nightmares when I gained more distance and recognized I had done my best as an analyst on behalf of my clients with money generating or value preservation ideas.

Upon Vikram Pandit's resignation, I sent out a quick comment and reference to Sheila Bair's trenchant and generally correct analysis of Pandit.

Most read in the last 20 days:

Effects of Monetary Pumping on the Real World
As long time readers know, we are looking at the economy through the lens of Austrian capital and monetary theory (see here for a backgrounder on capital theory and the production structure). In a nutshell: Monetary pumping falsifies interest rate signals by pushing gross market rates below the rate that reflects society-wide time preferences; this distorts relative prices in the economy and sets a boom into motion – which is characterized by...

“Literally On Fire”
This week brought forward more evidence that we are living in a fabricated world. The popular story-line presents a world of pure awesomeness. The common experience, however, falls grossly short.
There are many degrees of awesomeness, up to total awesomeness – which is where we are these days, in the age of total awesomeness, just a short skip away from the Nirvana era. What is Nirvana, you may wonder? We only know for sure that Nirvana is what...

A Useful Public Service
There are nooks and corners in every city where talk is cheap and scandal is honorable. The Alley, in Downtown Los Angeles, is a magical place where shrewd entrepreneurs, shameless salesmen, and downright hucksters coexist in symbiotic disharmony. Fakes, fugazis, and knock-offs galore, pack the roll-up storefronts with sparkle and shimmer.
The Alley in LA – in places such as this, consumers are as a rule well served by applying a little bit of...

Moribund Meandering
Earlier this week, the USD gold price was pushed rather unceremoniously off its perch above the $1300 level, where it had been comfortably ensconced all year after its usual seasonal rally around the turn of the year. For a while it seemed as though the $1,300 level may actually hold, but persistent US dollar strength nixed that idea. Previously many observers (too many?) expected gold to finally break out from its lengthy consolidation pattern, but evidently the...

A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect?
There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad monetary aggregate M2, because the component of TMS-2 responsible for the jump is not included in M2. Let us begin by looking at a chart of the TMS-2 growth rate and its 12-month moving average.
The y/y growth rate of TMS-2...

Waiting for Permanent Backwardation
The price of gold dropped 9 bucks, while that of silver rose 3 cents. Readers often ask us if permanent backwardation (when gold withdraws its bid on the dollar) is still coming. We say it is certain (unless we can avert it by offering interest on gold at large scale). They ask is it imminent, and we think this is with a mixture of fear and longing for a higher gold price.
Lettuce hope this treasure is not cursed... but it probably is....

Shill Alarm
One well-known commentator this week opined about the US health care industry:
“...the system is designed the churn and burn... to push people through the clinics as quickly as possible.
The standard of care now is to prescribe some medication (usually antibiotics) and send people on their way without taking the time to conduct a comprehensive examination.”
From the annals of modern health care... [PT]
Nope. That is not the standard...

In Other Global Markets the “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Generates Even Bigger Returns than in the US
The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors.
Good vs. bad seasonal timing... [PT]
The effect has been studied...

Tightening Credit Markets
Daylight extends a little further into the evening with each passing day. Moods ease. Contentment rises. These are some of the many delights the northern hemisphere has to offer this time of year. As summer approaches, and dispositions loosen, something less amiable is happening. Credit markets are tightening. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note has exceeded 3.12 percent.
A change in pace: yields are actually going somewhere. There is...

Voting with their Feet
A couple of recent articles have once more made the case, at least implicitly, for political decentralization as the only viable path which will begin to solve the seemingly insurmountable political, economic, and social crises which the Western world now faces.
Fracture lines – tax and regulatory competition allows people to “vote with their feet” - and they certainly do. [PT]
In the last few months, over 3,000 millionaires have...

Gold Lending and Arbitrage
There was no rise in the purchasing power of gold this week. The price of gold fell $22, and that of silver $0.19. One question that comes up is why is the fundamental price so far above the market price? Starting in January, the fundamental price began to move up sharply, and the move sustained through the end of April.
1-month LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate – the rate at which banks lend euro-dollars to each other). LIBOR and GOFO...

A Truism that is Demonstrably True
Most people are probably aware of the adage “sell in May and go away”. This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market's performance is far worse in the six summer months than in the six winter months. Numerous studies have been undertaken in this context particularly with respect to US stock markets, and they confirm that the stock market on average exhibits relative weakness in the summer.
Look at the part we...