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November 05, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 6: New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS It’s
unwise to bet against Tom Brady. Only do so when there are at least three good
reasons to do so. Those (lucky enough to be) predisposed to throwing caution to
the wind may disregard the opening two sentences and if such a nature permeates
your bones, then being able to back the Seahawks as a home underdog (+3.5) will
be right up your alley.

Are
there three reasons to bet against Brady this week? You bet your life there is.Home
field advantage. Conventional wisdom has it that Seattle and Kansas City can
lay claim to being the two toughest cities to play in. It isn’t even close this
season and Patriots coach Bill Belichick has said that he thinks CenturyLink
Field might be the loudest stadium that his team’s been in. It is. He went on
to add, unsurprisingly, that it’s a huge home field advantage for Seattle. It
is.

Statistically,
the Seahawks are the league’s number one ranked defense, giving up just 258.6
yards per game, ranking 4th against the pass and third against the
run. The latter may be tested significantly this week as New England enter town
having put together their first back to back 200 yard rushing performances
since 1978.

Stevan
Ridley is the main man Patriots fans can thank for that and he averages an
extremely healthy 4.8 yards per carry, but that does tail in behind his running
partner in crime, undrafted rookie Brandon Bolden, who averages 5.6 yards a
pop. Bolden’s officially questionable, but is expected to play. In fact, if he
does, he may see his playing time increase as Ridley isn’t averse to coughing
the ball up, an issue that placed him in Belichick’s dog house during the
playoffs last season. Seattle’s opportunistic D will be waiting should Ridley
play flash the fumble.

So,
home field and defense bodes well for the Seahawks. The third reason why it’s
OK to bet against Brady this week? The small matter of strongside linebacker
Dont’a Hightower missing his second straight game. Hightower’s good against the
run and his immediate backup, Tracy White, is also out, making the visitors
vulnerable on that side of the field. It’s the worst kept secret in the NFL
that the Patriots need to key in on stopping Marshall Lynch (and Robert Turbin)
and losing Hightower may have caused some defensive headaches on the cross
country flight.

Not
that it can’t ever be relied upon, but the 12th Man will be needed,
and early, should New England begin as they did last Sunday. Brady ran a quick,
no-huddle offense against the Broncos last week and it does remains to be seen
whether the same tactic will be deployed this week. It would certainly help
limit any defensive adjustments the Seahawks want to make between plays, but
Brady may tire of having to keep barking out orders over a noise he wouldn’t
have heard this season. It’s one thing to play super fast at Gillette, quite
another to attempt to get away with it at the Clink.

As
form covering the spread goes, the Patriots are no slouches this season.
They’re 4-1 ATS with the sole failure to cover being their shocker at home to
Arizona in Week 2. They were favoured by 13.5 points against the Cardinals, but
on the three occasions this season when they’ve been favoured by less than
seven, they’ve covered each time. They’re available -3 this week so that trend
is in their favour.

Assuming
that Hightower’s absence is as relevant as it looks on paper, Lynch’s continued
efforts will help keep the pressure off of Russell Wilson. It’s not as though
he doesn’t look as though he can’t handle the pressure of being an NFL
quarterback, but he’s making mistakes. However, he was always going to. I’m
loath to sledgehammer any points home (particularly on this site), but it’s why
stats in the preseason count for absolutely nothing.

As
electric as Wilson looked then, the learning curve against pro defensive
starters is steep. However, he’s in the perfect system. The coaching staff
aren’t rushing him along, he’s surrounded by the dream supporting cast of both
a running game and a defense to die for and it can be argued that Seattle is
the most perfect fit for him in the entire league. He’s a lucky fella, as are
we to be watching a team such as this. Be careful what you wish for. It’s a
good time to be supporting the Seahawks and, devastating injuries aside, 2013
is looking scarily good.

Wilson
is helped this week by looking over at a Patriots pass defense that ranks 29th
in the league. It really is New England’s Achilles heel and when the time comes
to throw, he just has to forget that Belichick is the brains behind it and how
he simply loves setting schemes to stymie and fool rookie QBs. I wouldn’t be
surprised to see Wilson toss a pick or two, but it won’t anger me. I’ll feel
frustration, but our defense is one that Belichick would love to get his hands
on and the Seahawks should be able to keep this one close until the very end.

This
matchup truly is the case of the irresistible force against the immovable
object: New England’s No. 1 ranked offense against Seattle’s No. 1 ranked
defense. Something’s gotta give and the form book looks favourably on both
teams. I mentioned earlier how the line suits the Patriots, but the same can be
said of the Seahawks. They’re 2-0 ATS at home this season as a 3 or 3.5
underdog. Same line today, folks.

Brace
yourselves. This one promises to be too good. The Seahawks plus the points.