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My 2018 Oscar predictions

Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: The Best Picture race appears to be wide open this year, though two of the frontrunners, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, are wildly uneven, undeserving messes. I can easily see Get Out or Lady Bird swooping in and winning, but I believe The Shape of Water will do well in several other categories so I’m giving it the edge here.

Should Win: My pick would be Phantom Thread, though it’s inclusion here was a surprise as it is. Of the movies that have an actual shot at winning, I’d pick Lady Bird.

Left out: A pretty solid line up this year, though I would have left out The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Darkest Hour and Dunkirk and nominated A Quiet Passion, Good Time, The Meyerowitz Stories and Nocturama.

Will Win: Frances McDormand is another pretty sure bet, though if the potential Three Billboards backlash reaches far enough into this category, Hawkins could pull an upset.

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan continues to prove herself one of the great actresses of her generation in Lady Bird. She’s by far the most deserving nominee in this category.

Left out: I would leave Ronan and replace the others with Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion, Vicky Krieps in Phantom Thread, Kim Min-hee in On the Beach at Night Alone and Aubrey Plaza in Ingrid Goes West.

Will Win: All of the acting categories seem to be locks, and Janney very well could continue her winning streak. However, I want at least one upset, and the upset I want the most is for Laurie Metcalf, so I’m picking her.

Should Win: Metcalf and Manville would each be very deserving winners.

Left out: Leave Blige, Metcalf and Manville and add in Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! and Tiffany Haddish in Girls Trip.