The previous high for research budget authority came in FY 2009 at $82.6 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars, according to historical agency data. That year, in the midst of the financial crisis, Congress adopted the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the stimulus package that added an extra $15.6 billion to research appropriations.

The year-over-year increase for basic and applied research would amount to an estimated 2.4 percent, with larger increases for basic. Discretionary spending overall is slated to rise by three percent, under the terms of the budget deal earlier this year.

Research as a share of GDP in FY 2019 would slip slightly to 0.41 percent under the Senate proposals, on par with pre-sequestration estimates. The 40-year average for basic and applied research as a share of GDP is 0.39 percent (see graph above right).

DOD basic research programs would fare particularly well with a 19.4 percent or $455 million increase to $2.8 billion total, $529 million above the Pentagon’s budget request. The bulk of the increase would be devoted to the Defense Research Sciences program elements, which form the core of the military’s intramural and extramural research, and which would receive a 21.1 percent increase. University initiatives would receive a 4.1 percent boost.

As can be seen in the above graph, House appropriators have been somewhat less generous than the Senate. The House figures will tick up slightly once House appropriators release their final outstanding bill next week, funding the Department of Homeland Security.

Still Work To Do

While the appropriations committees have made clear progress, the process has a ways to go yet. To date, no spending legislation has been signed into law, and only a handful have been adopted on the floor in either chamber (see progress). Of those, legislators had planned to meet this week to negotiate the final versions of a subset of bills covering energy, veterans, and the legislative branch, but those negotiations were abruptly postponed.

While those initial bills may prove easier to resolve, legislators could face bigger challenges finalizing the bills funding major healthcare programs and environmental programs, which tend to be more divisive and subject to controversial policy riders.

Congressional leaders remain committed to finishing appropriations on time by October 1 for the first time since 1996. But with the midterm elections on the horizon and a Supreme Court fight looming in the Senate, legislators will likely have to adopt a stopgap continuing resolution for at least some agencies to avoid a partial government shutdown. And, of course, the biggest X-factor may be President Trump and his veto pen, should the Administration decide to take a more aggressive stance on their spending priorities.