Cyber warfare boost in defence plan

Key points

The white paper sets out a 20-year vision for defence spending, making more provision for cyber warfare.

The government is tipped to commit to building a fourth air warfare destroyer to shore up shipbuilding jobs .

The Gillard government will commit to bolstering Australia’s cyber warfare defences in a long-awaited defence white paper to be announced on Friday.

The white paper comes after the US has fingered China over a string of attacks on US business and defence interests.

In Australia Prime Minister Julia Gillard is concerned about the growing menace for business and defence networks, though she has not named China publicly.

The Reserve Bank and the Australian Bureau of Statistics have both acknowledged China-linked cyber attacks, following FOI requests by the AFR.

However the paper, which sets out a 20-year vision for defence, is expected to be far more restrained in its spending ambitions than former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s 2009 defence white paper, which laid out a lavish $275 billion weapons wishlist.

Citing persisting tight economic conditions in the wake of the global financial crisis, the paper is expected to nominate a return to 2 per cent average annual percentage increases in defence funding, but set no timeframe for achieving the target.

Defence subjected to ongoing cuts

In last year’s budget Ms Gillard and Defence Minister Stephen Smith came under fire for imposing a $5.5 billion cut on defence, the biggest cut since 1938 in GDP terms, which brings overall cuts or deferrals since 2009 to almost $25 billion.

The government is tipped to commit to building a fourth air warfare destroyer to shore up shipbuilding jobs in Adelaide, Melbourne and Newcastle as part of a broader naval construction program which includes navy frigates, offshore patrol vessels and refuelling ships.

Plans to buy the developmental US F-35 joint strike fighter will be included but it’s understood Boeing has offered the government a deal to buy a further 24 F/A-18 Super Hornets at a cost of $2 billion, which could see the F-35 buy scaled back from the current 100.

The paper will also pare back the options for building 12 new submarines to replace the ageing Collins class from four to two.

The options include the high-cost Australian design and build ($36 billion), buying a submarine from overseas but modifying it only to meet Australian maritime regulations, an evolved Collins, or an overseas submarine design modified to meet Australian conditions but assembled in Australia.

Focus will shift to regional defence

Although industry may benefit from new innovation funding programs, it will be encouraged to concentrate on the $5 billion-a-year maintenance and sustainment budget, and winning export work given the dearth of new big-ticket domestic projects.

The paper is expected to shy away from characterising China as a threat or ticking Beijing off over its military build-up as the 2009 paper did.

But it will mention the danger of miscalculation over China’s territorial disputes, Taiwan and North Korea, as well as the danger of a flare-up between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.

The paper will refocus Australia’s defence emphasis on the region, given the drawdown from overseas operations.

The Australian Financial Review

BY John Kerin

John writes about defence, national security and foreign
affairs from our Canberra bureau.