Fantasy Alarm Post Week 11: Fantasy Football Pass Targets

Post Week 11: Fantasy Football Pass Targets Winners and Losers

Welcome to another week of our Pass Target Winners and Losers, and although “Losers” may be a harsh word, we do not have time for underperformers as the Fantasy Playoffs are fast approaching. Every week, every game, every matchup, every player could mean the difference between getting in the playoffs, or having to call you doctor for help in dealing with the depression that may set in if you end up on the outside looking in come playoff time. The winter is already too long, dark, and cold with Fantasy Football, so let’s see who this week’s Target Winners and Losers are, what some of their performance mean going forward, with the hopes that you can give Old Man winter the finger for a few more weeks.

One thing that may jump out to many of you is that many of the top targeted receivers had a catch percentage around or below 50%, which can be attributed to the first main weekend where poor weather conditions heavily influenced the overall Fantasy production, or lack there of. While you are likely starting most of the receivers on this list, in season long leagues, it now becomes even more important than ever to check the weather conditions in any format, but arguably even more so in your Daily League contests. If you do not feel like playing weather man each week you can always join our Fantasy Alarm Sunday Morning Live Start/Sit Chat from 10am till game time here: “Ask the Experts” and we will do it for you. In the meantime, here is a deeper look at some of this week’s target winners:

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RECEIVERS

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Andre Johnson

17

10

Josh Gordon

15

5

Dwayne Bowe

14

4

Calvin Johnson

13

6

Brian Hartline

13

5

Demaryius Thomas

13

5

Antonio Brown

13

7

Kendall Wright

12

9

Vincent Jackson

11

10

Victor Cruz

11

8

Michael Floyd

11

6

Alshon Jeffery

11

7

* Andre Johnson is averaging about 20 yards per reception with all five of his touchdowns this season coming with Case Keenum at the helm. So, although the Texans are struggling, Fantasy Owners of Dre’s should be fine going forward.

* Bowe’s day almost went up in smoke if it weren’t for him reaching the end zone for the first time since Week 4. Bowe has now been targeted 25 times over his last two games, which accounts for more than a third of his total targets on the season. The increase in targets alone make Bowe worth rolling out there again in Week 12, despite having caught only 44% of his targets, with three drops, that past two games, and no I’m not stoned, just hopeful, but then again every time I buy into Bowe all I get is bunk. So, in this theme, you might like this hippity hop song by RBL Posse, which has a catchy tune that you can sing to Bowe as you hit submit while placing him in your lineup in Week 12.

* In two games versus the Falcons this season Vincent Jackson has totaled 20 catches for 303 yards and three touchdowns. For how great those numbers are ,Jackson has seemingly become a matchup play each week, which could be expected with a rookie quarterback passing him the ball. Jackson has struggled mightily against some of the better defenses, but has shined when matched up against subpar pass defenses, and fourtunately for his owners he and the Bucs will play a Lions pass defense that is allowing the second most Fantasy Points to the wide receiver position this season.

* Kendall Wright has emerged as a decent PPR option, even with the season-ending injury to Jake Locker and having scored just one touchdown this season back in Week 2, as he has at least nine targets and seven receptions in three of his last four games, with 69 or more yards receiving in all four of those games, including Sunday’s nine catches for 80 yards. Over the last four weeks Wright is near a top 40 ranked receiver in PPR formats and he and the Titans have a favorable schedule for receivers going forward with Oakland this week followed by the Colts, Broncos, and if you make it to your Fantasy Super Bowl the Jags in Week 16.

* Michael Floyd has more upside than Kendall Wright, and will face the Colts and Eagles the next two weeks, so his short-term value is looking great, but after Week 13 he and the Cardinals get the Rams, Titans, and Seahawks, which would make it highly unlikely you would start Floyd in those weeks.

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RUNNING BACK

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Chris Ogbonnaya

12

6

Shane Vereen

11

8

Jamaal Charles

8

2

Ben Tate

7

4

Matt Forte

6

5

10 players with 5 targets

* Not much to gain from looking at this week’s running back targets other than the return of Shane Vereen who led all Patriots in targets, catches, and receiving yards in his first game back.

* One player not on the list that may be worth mentioning is Pierre Thomas, who was one of the 10 players with five targets. Thomas has reached double-digit Fantasy Points in each of his last four weeks and has 11 or more carries in three of the last four weeks if you are desperate for a running back in PPR formats.

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TIGHT END

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Garrett Graham

12

7

Jimmy Graham

11

6

Heath Miller

10

8

Delanie Walker

10

10

Coby Fleener

10

8

Tony Gonzalez

9

7

Rob Housler

9

6

Greg Olsen

8

5

* Not the Graham you expected to top this list, but Garrett’s production was due in large part because rookie wide out DeAndre Hopkins got benched Sunday (two targets, one reception), so expecting anything near his seven catches for 136 yards and a touchdown is wishful thinking going forward.

* I have been waiting, and waiting for Heath Miller’s production to increase and it finally did, to a certain extent, in Week 11 as he finished with eight catches for 67 yards, but no touchdown. Miller has seen limited opportunities lately, in part due to the resurrection Jerico Cotchery. There is a chance that Miller could see similar targets in Week 12 though if Emmanuel Sanders sits out this week as he is battling a foot injury, at which point Miller would then be worth considering starting, at least for one week.

* The two players to take the most note of this list are Titans Delanie Walker and Colts Coby Fleener. Walker has at least 60 or more receiving yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games and has what appears to be one of the most favorable, it not the most, of any tight end on this list.

* Coby Fleener set career game-highs in receptions and yards with eight catches for 107 yards in the win against the Titans, who he will see again in two weeks. In the meantime, he will face a Cardinals defense this week whom have allowed the most Fantasy Points to tight ends this season. Could not come at a better time right?

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Week 11 Target Losers

For this portion of the target report I am going to take a little different approach than you may be used to. The criteria going forward is that each player eligible to land in this "Land of Let Down" must have been on the field for 60% or more of their team's snaps (50% for running backs), had fewer than 60 yards receiving, and did not reach the end zone. For example, Doug Baldwin saw only two targets (two receptions), which was tied for the second fewest among receivers who saw 60% of their team's snap, but he did have 63 yards receiving and a touchdown, so he did not make our list of losers. So, I think we would agree that Baldwin over performed despite a limited number of targets. Get it? Got it? Good, Let's Go...

RECEIVERS

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Tiquan Underwood

1

1

DeAndre Hopkins

2

1

Donnie Avery

3

1

Jeremy Ross

3

1

DeVier Posey

3

1

David Nelson

3

1

Eddie Royal

3

2

Jason Avant

3

1

Nate Washington

3

2

* DeAndre Hopkins had more in common with Trent Richardson than a player would like to as he supposedly posted an obscene video on Instagram earlier in the week, then proceeded to turn his back on Fantasy Owners, just as Trent Richardson has done, on the field. Unlike Richardson, Hopkins at least has an excuse for the egg he laid as he was benched in Sunday's game due to making multiple mental errors. (As if he did not make enough of them prior to the game). The positive is that Hopkins will likely learn from his mistakes, and like his teammate Andre Johnson, has seen an increase in yards per reception. So I would not bail on the rookie after this one rough week, and one look at the Texans upcoming schedule should give you even more confidence to consider starting him at a WR 3 spot.

* Donnie Avery has been a huge disappoint after his three catch, 91 yard performance back in Week 5. Since then, Avery has not tallied more than three receptions or 33 yards receiving, not to mention he has not seen the end zone since Week 1, so if you have not already cut Avery, do it now.

* Eddie was not Royal this week, but there is a possibility that his stock could rise this week if he plays and rookie phenomenon Keenan Allen does not.

* All of Nate Washington's Fantasy Value washed away a long time ago, like seven weeks ago. Send him packing if you have not already done so.

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RUNNING BACKS

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Knowshon Moreno

0

0

Alfred Morris

0

0

Chris Johnson

1

1

Lamar Miller

2

2

Rashad Jennings

2

2

* Knowshon Moreno had a respectable rushing game versus one of the most dominating defenses this season in the Kansas City Chiefs with 27 carries for 79 yards, but it was the first game he went without a target or a reception and things do not necessarily get much easier the next two weeks as the Broncos goes on the road against a Pats team that has allowed only three rushing touchdowns and than the have a rematch with the Chiefs Week 13 in Arrowhead Stadium. I am not suggesting you bench Moreno, rather lower your expectations some, and consider an alternative option in DFS play until Week 14 when he gets a Titans that is tied with Washington for the most rushing touchdowns allowed in the NFL this season with 13.

* Again, no surprise to see Alfred Morris on this list, has he has not been targeted since Week 6 and has not caught a pass since Week 2.

* It boggles my mind how infrequent the Titans have used Johnson in the passing game the last two seasons. After having over 43 receptions in his first 4 seasons in the league, (two seasons over 50 catches), he had just 36 last season and is on pace for a similar total this season.

* Rashad Jennings has been almost non-existent in the passing the last two weeks with a combined four targets, four receptions, for 17 yards. Fortunately, he has been getting it down on the ground the last three weeks with 88 or more yards rushing, including two games over 100 yards, and two touchdowns. So don't sweat the small stuff.

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TIGHT END

TARGETS

RECEPTIONS

Martellus Bennett

2

2

Lee Smith

2

1

Ed Dickson

3

1

Logan Paulsen

3

0

Brandon Myers

4

3

* The Me Me above says it all, as it appears it you would be more likely to see a black unicorn than you would Martellus Bennett with a respectable Fantasy Stat line.

* Brandon Myers has been even worse than his predecssor Bennett, hopefully you figured that out weeks ago.

And on that note, it is time for me to do my best Myers/Bennett impersonation and disappear, but before I go be sure to:

Hopefully, you found my first edition of the Fantasy Football Pass Targets report both helpful and enjoyable. As always, you can leave a comment in the comments section below.