Analysis: 201,000 in Florida didn't vote because of long lines
By Scott Powers and David Damron, Orlando Sentinel
January 23, 2013

Analyzing data compiled by the Orlando Sentinel, Ohio State University professor Theodore Allen estimated last week that at least 201,000 voters likely gave up in frustration on Nov. 6, based on research Allen has been doing on voter behavior.

His preliminary conclusion was based on the Sentinel's analysis of voter patterns and precinct-closing times in Florida's 25 largest counties, home to 86 percent of the state's 11.9 million registered voters.

"My gut is telling me that the real number [of voters] deterred is likely higher," Allen said. "You make people wait longer, they are less likely to vote."

Around the state, nearly 2 million registered voters live in precincts that stayed open at least 90 minutes past the scheduled 7 p.m. closing time, according to Sentinel analysis of voting data obtained from county elections supervisors. Of those, 561,000 voters live in precincts that stayed open three extra hours or longer.

And two of the five counties with the worst lines were in Central Florida. In Orange and Osceola counties, as many as 48 percent of those who cast votes on Election Day live in precincts that closed at least 90 minutes late, the analysis showed.

Elections supervisors have blamed the long lines and delays on the cutback of early-voting days from 14 to eight that was ordered by the 2011 Legislature, a record-long ballot that included 11 lengthy constitutional amendments and a 71 percent turnout for a hotly contested presidential election. Indeed, Gov. Rick Scott said last week he'd back legislation restoring the early-voting days and restricting ballot length.

But the Sentinel analysis also showed that — even in the worst-performing counties — long lines were the exception rather than the rule. In Orange and Miami-Dade, for example, more than half the precincts, including many large ones, closed before 8 p.m.

And some of the state's largest counties — notably Duval (Jacksonville) and Pinellas (St. Petersburg) — reported almost all precincts were closed by 8:30 p.m.

"As a whole and totality, with 8.5 million voters, I have to say Florida did a good election," said Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner. "But in isolated areas, I think we find there were some management issues that could have been improved upon."

Still, according to Allen's analysis of the data, the lengthy lines lowered actual turnout by roughly 2.3 percent per hour of delay.

Said Jennifer Bitz, who said she waited more than five hours to vote at her Cape Coral precinct, "I must have seen 15 people, at least, just give up and leave off the line. I was absolutely livid. People [in line] were saying it was some sort of conspiracy."

Lee County, where she lives, ranked worst in the Sentinel analysis. Its last precinct didn't close until 2:54 a.m. Wednesday — nearly eight hours late. In all, 54 percent of the county's voters were in precincts that stayed open past 8:30 p.m — and half, or 27 percent, voted in precincts still open at 10 p.m.

"It was clear we didn't have enough scanners," said Virginia Jones, a Sanibel Democrat who spent eight hours in line and didn't vote until 11:20 p.m.

In documents provided to the state, Lee elections officials conceded its resources were inadequate, and "what we deployed on [Nov. 6] turned out not to be sufficient." Despite a 70,000 increase in registered voters since 2008, the county slashed its number of polling places from 136 to 88 and dispatched fewer ballot-scanning machines.

"The biggest surprise is that people waited so long," Allen said of his review, saying he would have expected the length of the lines to discourage even more voters. Overall, the 201,000 voters he indicated gave up equaled 2.3 percent of the Election Day turnout.

In Florida, he concluded, the lost voters appeared to favor President Barack Obama. Of the 201,000 "missing" votes, 108,000 likely would have voted for Obama and 93,000 for Republican Mitt Romney, he said.

This suggests that Obama's margin over Romney in Florida could have been roughly 15,000 votes higher than it was. Obama carried the state by 74,309 votes out of more than 8.4 million cast.

Allen's first analysis of the impact of long lines at the polls was done in 2004, when he estimated that long lines in Ohio's Franklin County, where Ohio State is located, discouraged at least 20,000 voters from casting ballots in the razor-close contest between President George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry. He has continued his research in every election since.

People sacrifice their lives so you have the right to vote and you're crying about sacrificing a few hours of work?????

To his defense, opening more polling locations or instituting early voting shouldn't be that difficult and it would better meet the voting demand. Supply and demand....but in this case the suppliers are not meeting the demand.

To his defense, opening more polling locations or instituting early voting shouldn't be that difficult and it would better meet the voting demand. Supply and demand....but in this case the suppliers are not meeting the demand.

Wow, the government is not efficient at doing something. Color me shocked and what not.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by |Zach|

All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.

I definitely agree. Early voting was awesome for me here in Texas. I just went on one of my off Fridays (I get every other Friday off). The polling place was less than 1 mile from my house and there was NO line. From the time I left my house to the time I returned was 15 minutes.

It's just common sense but we know why they tried to limit voting places and hours, which was to try to suppress the vote because they knew they were going to lose.

It's just common sense but we know why they tried to limit voting places and hours, which was to try to suppress the vote because they knew they were going to lose.

JFC.....

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Quote:

Originally Posted by |Zach|

All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.

The University of Florida report says the cutback of early voting days disproportionately affected African Americans, who tend to vote early. Politics professor Daniel Smith says that led to long lines "disproportionately filled with racial and ethnic minorities" on Election Day.

Attorney Lee Rowland of New York University's Brennan Center for Justice also thought the new law was more political than practical.

"The incredibly long lines we saw in Florida were part of the legacy of the movement to restrict voting," she said.

Rowland says Florida lawmakers now have the chance to turn the page. "The Florida legislature's actions didn't just harm the voters of Florida, but distinctly made Florida a national laughing stock," she said.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott originally defended the GOP-backed law, but lines on Election Day gave ammunition to critics and comedians.

Now, Scott says he wants to restore those early voting days. He also wants more flexibility and a shorter ballot, which is what his opponents have demanded all along.

JFC..that is why for example in Ohio they tried to restrict voting hours and places in Democratic counties and didn't try to do the same thing for heavy Republican counties.

And this..

I swear to freaking God you Lefties cry about everything during every election even when you win

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Quote:

Originally Posted by |Zach|

All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.

It's an unjust, unnecessary inconvenience that hurts our democracy, is it not.

Whew! It's a good thing we're not a democracy. And if you notice, there is no explicit right to vote in the Constitution, like the right to speech. It states ways voting cannot be denied. States decide qualifications for voters and so long as these do not conflict with anything in the Constitution, it's something that can be withheld.

You guys have an obsession with one man, one vote being vital. People who need way too much assistance to vote are not publically minded enough to do so, imo. Nearly a whole month to vote is ridiculous and it does increase shenanigans because there's always some. This allows more time for them.