Monday, October 04, 2004

Daily Prospect Report 10/4

In his first full professional season, he's made it to AA and will play in the Arizona Fall League. This is one of those situations where the numbers kind of speak for themselves. In 452 at bats between Lancaster (Cal League) and El Paso (Texas League), he hit .332/.437/.549. Of note is that much of the OBP in that came from a record breaking 43 HBP. His walk rate was good, not great with 45 free passes being given to Quentin. He also has a reputation of being a good defensive right fielder, though he had Tommy John surgery in 2003.

The downsides are as follows. Lancaster and El Paso are both very extreme hitters parks, so some of those raw numbers are inflated, and since Tucson is a high altitude bandbox as well, it will be hard to figure out exactly how much of those rate stats will translate to a more neutral setting. The other downside is the potential health impact of those HBP rates. Craig Biggio stayed relatively healthy through most of his career while getting plunked at alarming rates, but Nick Johnson, has been extremely fragile. You have to figure that being hit by 3-4 dozen pitches a season can't be good for you. Some are going to be gentle taps that graze the uniform or bounce off an elbow pad, but some are going to fastballs to the ribs and wrists.