THE LOWDOWN: A month ago, “Babel” had a Golden Globe for best dramatic picture and looked like the kind of serious movie Oscar voters traditionally embrace. But it’s mostly come up empty ever since, and in a year with no obvious, overwhelming favorite – like, say, “The Aviator” and “Brokeback Mountain” were the past two years – I’m climbing aboard the yellow microbus. People say a comedy can’t win best picture, but people always say something can’t happen until it does. Also, as comedies go, “Little Miss Sunshine” is loaded with moments that teeter on the edge of tragedy.

WILL WIN: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”

THE LOWDOWN: The strongest field in this category in years, and yet Mirren has utterly dominated the distribution of awards. My preference for Streep (the only American) is not provincial. I felt Mirren’s real queen came a little closer to impersonation than Streep’s creation of a fashion queen from whole cloth of a fashion queen.

WILL WIN:Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”

SHOULD WIN: Peter O’Toole, “Venus”

THE LOWDOWN: I don’t think anybody’s very excited about Ryan Gosling or Will Smith, and Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated for the wrong movie. (He’s sensational in “The Departed.”) That leaves Whitaker’s impersonation of Idi Amin, which isn’t really very interesting, and O’Toole’s ancient lothario, which is. But O’Toole has already been given the honorary Oscar that goes to legends who never managed to win one on their own, and I don’t think the academy is into do-overs.

WILL WIN: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”

SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”

THE LOWDOWN: A pretty compelling case could be made for every other nominee in this category, and it could even be argued that Hudson has dominated the field in earlier awards because of her singing, more than her acting, which probably wouldn’t blow people away without the powerful pipes. But the award is for a performance – which includes singing – and with that great gust of a voice, Hudson blows the rest of the field away.

WILL WIN: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”

SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”

THE LOWDOWN: This would be a major upset, but if “Sunshine” is going to have a big night, an Arkin win could be an early predictor of it. Eddie Murphy’s soulful singer in “Dreamgirls” has been the favored performance since his Globes win, and certainly giving him this award would represent both overdue career recognition, and a way of showing the movie some love after leaving it out of the best picture category. I don’t think “Norbit” coming out in the thick of the voting season helped Murphy, while at 72, Arkin is the lovably gruff grandpa Hollywood wishes it had.

WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”

SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”

THE LOWDOWN: In a category in which the virtues of gravitas and modesty have been valued since James Cameron’s “I’m king of the world!” victory howl, Scorsese had the misfortune to have Oscar hype-meister Harvey Weinstein putting on the hard sell following “Gangs of New York” and “The Aviator.” And though Clint Eastwood, who snatched this award from Scorsese once before with “Million Dollar Baby,” is a strong contender, look for Marty to finally get over the hump.

WILL WIN: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

SHOULD WIN: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

THE LOWDOWN: You can usually discard three nominees in this category because not enough voters have bothered to even see them. This year, that leaves “The Lives of Others,” a complex and at times ponderous story of political disintegration, and “Pan’s Labyrinth,” a violent fairy tale. Both are excellent, but “Pan’s Labyrinth” is more accessible, which is important in a town that does not like subtitles.

WILL WIN: “Happy Feet”

SHOULD WIN: “Happy Feet”

THE LOWDOWN: After last year’s win by “The March of the Penguins” in the feature documentary category, this is the second consecutive box office hit about penguins. If “An Inconvenient Truth” wins the doc award this year, expect to see Al Gore tap dancing across the melting glaciers of Antarctica in a tuxedo, coming soon to an overheated theater near you.

WILL WIN: “The Departed,” William Monahan.

SHOULD WIN: “Notes On a Scandal,” Patrick Marber.

THE LOWDOWN: Tempted as I am to believe Oscar voters will give this award to “Borat” as a way to acknowledge it as the funniest movie of the year, anything adapted from a TV show carries that “Dukes of Hazzard” taint. “Children of Men” was far more beloved by critics and industry insiders than my favorite, but I doubt either has the oomph to topple Monahan’s brawling adaptation of the Hong Kong favorite, “Infernal Affairs.”

WILL WIN: “The Queen,” Peter Morgan.

SHOULD WIN: “Letters From Iwo Jima,” Iris Yamashita, story by Yamashita and Paul Haggis.

THE LOWDOWN: This would be a good place to give an award to something deserving that didn’t win anything else, and this year that could be Eastwood’s “Letters” or “Babel.” But Morgan has not only crafted the literate, witty script for “The Queen,” he wrote what could be Whitaker’s winning performance in his script for “The Last King of Scotland.” Between the “King” and “The Queen,” it seems like his year to wear the crown.

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