Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

33.New England (via Carolina) – Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
After showing he can play with his hand off the ground at the combine, I’m not sure he makes it this far. I’ve mocked him in the first round and now here to the Pats. This guy is a perfect fit for head coach Bill Belichick.

34.Buffalo – Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
After passing on the position in the first round, the Bills add an athletic quarterback, perfect for Chan Gailey to develop, with the arm strength to cut through the Buffalo winter wind.

35.Cincinnati – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas*
I know he isn’t ideal for new OC Jay Gruden, but if (when) this pick happens, who won’t nod and say, “Yep, that’s about right” and look forward to watching this partnership develop.

36.Denver – Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson
After passing on Dareus in the first round, John Fox addresses the team’s biggest need: defensive tackle. Jenkins played in the shadow of DE Da’Quan Bowers at Clemson, but Jenkins significantly contributed to Bowers’ breakout year. It wouldn’t be a shock to hear Jenkins’ name called tonight.

37.Cleveland – Allen Bailey, DL, Miami
After taking a receiver in the first round, the Browns must address their defense here. A freakish athlete, Bailey has struggled to translate that to success on the field, but he could sneak into the second round on potential alone. New DC Dick Jauron could get the best out of him.

38.Arizona – Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor
As discussed under their first round pick, I think Arizona is all in for going the veteran route at quarterback and staying with their current developmental prospects at the position. I previously mocked OL Marcus Cannon here, but after some conflicting reports about cancer, it now appears he has non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. Although it’s fortunately treatable and he was given an excellent prognosis for full recovery, he is unlikely to get drafted.

39.Tennessee – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA*
Ayers bounced back from a disappointing combine with a solid pro day and his stock was rebounding, but questions of his football IQ could possibly drop him out of the first round again. I see this as his floor, and the Titans will be happy to plug his talent and versatility into a linebacking corps that needs to be more productive.

40.Dallas – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas*
There are some questions as to whether Williams will have to convert to safety at the next level, but Dallas can use help at both spots and will be happy to land him here if they don’t trade up for Patrick Peterson.

41.Washington – Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech**
I’m a lot more comfortable with this pick now after mocking the Redskins to draft a quarterback in the first. Williams reminds me of Clinton Portis, and I bet Mike Shanahan sees the similarities as well.

42.Houston – Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Once considered a first-round pick before injuries derailed his season, Dowling’s value has rebounded. But he is still likely to fall into the second round, where Houston should be ecstatic to find him.

43.Minnesota – James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
The top of tier two among offensive tackle prospects, Carpenter is a nice developmental prospect for a Minnesota O-line that isn’t what it once was.

44.Detroit – Orlando Franklin, OL, Miami*
Franklin hasn’t gotten much recognition, but he’s a tough and versatile lineman. He doesn’t have the upside to work the left tackle position, but he does have excellent guard or right tackle potential.

45.San Francisco – Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
The combine bench press champ does not have the prototypical nose tackle size, but Paea is a true interior player. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is very familiar with him from their days in the PAC-10 together, and current nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin is a free agent.

46.Denver (via Miami) – Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA*
The top-rated safety in a weak class at the position is a nice fit here for the Broncos, who have a glaring need at the position.

47.St. Louis – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh*
I previously mocked Baldwin as the last pick of the first round, so this is quite a drop. But he would make a nice consolation prize for the Rams when they miss out on Julio Jones with their first pick. They should have plenty of good options at the position even if Baldwin is gone.

48.Oakland – Stefan Wisniewski, C, Penn State
Al Davis fooled us in the first round last year with the very non-Al Davis pick of Rolando McClain, which everyone thought was the right pick. McClain didn’t pan out as expected and now Davis will never second-guess himself again. Instead of going for some flashy measurables, Davis could bring Wisniewski (who actually isn’t a bad selection in terms of value and need) into the Oakland fold, where his uncle and long-time Raider, Steven Wisniewski, is an assistant coach.

49.Jacksonville – Brandon Harris, CB, Miami*
Concerns about Harris’ size in a deep cornerback class will push him to the second, where his fall stops with the cornerback-needy Jags.

50.San Diego – Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia*
A positive drug test should see Houston fall at least to the second round after having been strongly considered as a first-round pick.

51.Tampa Bay – Shareece Wright, CB, USC
Rumor is the recent legal problems of star CB Aqib Talib could knock him off the team. Injuries and academic ineligibility prevented Wright from putting together much of a resume, but he has been a riser in the postseason.

52.New York Giants – Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois*
A value pick here for GM Jerry Reese, who would have a new power back to replace Brandon Jacobs.

53.Indianapolis – Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
There’s lots of talk of the Ginger Maestro going in the first. I don’t buy it. If he falls to the second, the Colts, who have looked into him a bit, could finally have a legitimate backup and developmental prospect behind Peyton Manning.

54.Philadelphia – Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois*
After blowing up at the combine, Wilson had a less impressive pro day. Because of concerns about his neck, he falls out of the first round and someone gets a steal with his versatility and athleticism.

55.Kansas City – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland*
Hands will keep the speedy Smith out of the first round, but his speed will help open things up for Dwayne Bowe.

56.New Orleans – Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Expected to be a first-round pick before blowing out his ACL late in the season, Carter could be a steal here.

57.Seattle – Will Rackley, G, Lehigh
The small-school prospect has gotten a lot of buzz since his big Pro Day.

58.Baltimore – Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
If they don’t address the position in the first round, the Ravens will likely hoard. The unheralded Patrick doesn’t get much press, but he is a second-round talent.

59.Atlanta – Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pittsburgh
The Falcons need to address defensive end somewhere early in the draft. Sheard emerged from the shadow of injured teammate Greg Romeus in 2010 to be the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.

61.San Diego (via New York Jets) – Titus Young, WR, Boise State
The wide receiver situation remains a bit uncertain in San Diego.

62.Chicago – Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
Hankerson’s postseason should push him into the second round, and GM Jerry Angelo loves players from The U.

63.Pittsburgh – Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova
The versatile small-school prospect is a nice fit to bolster Pittsburgh’s line. He has the size of a guard, but the arm length to possibly play tackle.

64.Green Bay – Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky*
A strong postseason has the stock of the versatile Cobb rising. He’s a great fit in many roles, and the Packers wide receiver corps could thin quickly with the aging of Donald Driver and James Jones likely leaving via free agency.

As the days left to the NFL draft wind down, the misinformation ramps up. While agents and teams dish out propaganda to serve their purposes, the immense popularity of the draft has everyone from well-regarded journalists of major media outlets to internet draftniks jumping on any rumor, if not just creating their own, in the battle for notoriety in what has become a culturally significant media event. This year is further complicated by the lockout. For legal purposes, teams have their employees’ communications locked down, making it more difficult for pundits to get leaks from their usual sources. Readers should be more skeptical than usual of the “sources” of reports this year. While it’s unethical to assert that a player is seriously injured or to fabricate other negative information to help him fall to you in a draft, if you think that doesn’t occur to a significant extent, this year gives you reason to be a conspiracy theorist. Here are the facts I have found and my opinions on the significant questions coming out of the trending rumors, innuendo, and propaganda out there.

The next Frank Abagnale Jr.?

Is Ryan Mallett the Worst Person in the World?
I can’t remember a prospect more maligned by less factual information. Even in the shady game of draft propaganda, where there is this much smoke, there is usually fire. However, as we are just days before the draft, it’s still seemingly impossible to validate any of the most negative stories associated with Mallett. Take the latest one, for example: Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times reported on National Football Post last week that Mallett missed a meeting with the Carolina Panthers after being “seen out on the town late” following a dinner with team officials that night. Mallett’s agents quickly responded with a complete denial, which the Panthers unequivocally corroborated. Either Mallett is the next Frank Abagnale Jr. and fooling those of us who believe in him, or we’re at the tipping point where the popularity of the NFL draft and the bankruptcy of reliable journalism due to social media make it possible to influence the perception of teams through exerting this much negative information.

Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel did extensive digging into Mallett’s background, and everything else factual I’ve found out about Mallett basically agrees with his findings, so I’ll just direct you to Hyde’s article for a pretty fair and balanced look at Mallett. The conclusion I share is, other than the unsubstantiated drug rumors, Mallett has a few incidents, but no more than a lot of other college kids. It’s definitely nothing significant enough to warrant the tenacity and volume of character concerns being alleged about him. I think talent wins out and Mallett goes in the first round.

Is Tim Tebow Not the QB of the Future in Denver?
One of the maxims of the NFL draft is “new regimes mean new quarterbacks” (which I’ll attribute to Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball.com, who may or may not have coined the phrase but is the first to unfailingly abide by it in his mocks). So this brings us to the parade of quarterback prospects visiting Dove Valley along with some less-than-flattering public comments by the team’s new vice president of football operations, John Elway, about second-year quarterback Tim Tebow. Rumors are running rampant that Tebow is not the quarterback of the future for Elway, nor presumably for new head coach John Fox, and Denver will be selecting a quarterback early in the draft. While the “new regime” principle would seem to apply here, Denver is in a bit of a unique situation. Tebow’s debut last year gave some reason for optimism, even if he was handpicked by the exiled Josh McDaniels, and Kyle Orton is under contract for the season, so the team has the flexibility to spend more time evaluating Tebow while still having a more-than-serviceable starter. Because of that, they could use this draft to address some glaring holes on defense. My opinion is that this is a well-orchestrated smoke screen to encourage one of the teams in love with a top quarterback prospect to trade up for Denver’s second overall pick, or even the 36th pick, which would be early in the expected run on the next tier in the second round.

What is a bit perplexing is that teams are allowed to have only 30 draft-eligible prospects visit their facility prior to the draft, excluding local prospects (defined as anyone who grew up or attended college in the metropolitan area of the team)and the Broncos have had at least five of the top quarterback prospects to Dove Valley—none of which I believe fall under the local exemption. That’s quite an extreme to go to for a misdirection play. However, it would usually be judged as expected due diligence, considering the Broncos have such an early pick. But Elway’s comments on Tebow (which I hope for the sake of their relationship Tebow was in on) helped fuel the rumor mill that the team has done nothing to slow down. Regardless, I don’t think the team is anywhere near giving up on Tebow, even with a new regime.

How Serious Is Da’Quan Bowers’ Knee Problem?
What we know is this: Bowers’ high school coach told the Charlotte Observer that Bowers underwent arthroscopic knee surgery shortly after Clemson’s loss in the Meineke Car Care Bowl on New Year’s Eve. The surgery was for a partially torn meniscus in his right knee that he suffered on a sack against North Carolina State on November 6th. Bowers played through the rest of the season with the injury. Although reported that his productivity tailed off toward the end of the season (i.e. after the injury), it really hadn’t. He had five sacks and an interception in the three games after the injury. However, I did watch him in Clemson’s bowl game and was disappointed by his lack of explosion (he had three solo tackles and three assists in the game, no sacks), so it likely did impair him slightly. But clearly he was having some success playing through it. Note that Bowers missed three games in 2009 for a sprained right knee.

Despite being expected to work out at the Combine, Bowers did not, saying he hadn’t had enough time to prepare after rehabbing his knee. The recovery for this type of surgery is between four and six weeks, and the Combine was held about seven weeks after his surgery. Shortly after the Combine, rumors began that his knee was not healing as well as hoped. He then missed Clemson’s March 10th Pro Day and scheduled an individual workout for April 1st. The reviews were mixed, with most satisfied with his effort. Some of the tests were disappointing, particularly his 40 time, which most had just under 5 seconds. His 9’2” broad jump was also well below the 11+ feet you’d expect. However, the rest of the numbers matched up well against the top defensive end prospects, particularly his sub-7 second three-cone drill, an indicator of explosion. He reportedly performed well in the drills led by Miami pass-rush coach Bryan Cox. The following week it was reported that the Bills’ team doctor had cleared Bowers’ knee during a visit. That weekend, he was back in Indianapolis for an official Combine medical re-check and then the conflicting reports began. Some sources said the knee was in such good condition that he didn’t need further exams; others said he had covered up microfracture surgery in January and the knee showed signs of potential long-term problems. Bowers’ agent wasted no time releasing a statement about the procedure, quoting the surgeon and Dr. James Andrews and confirming the overall health of the knee while emphatically denying any long-term concerns—specifically of an arthritic condition, the likelihood of needing additional surgery, or any degenerative condition. The statement also discussed Bowers’ focus before the Pro Day having been on rehabilitation and not performance and strength improvement, hence explaining some of his disappointing test results. Of course, this position would be expected from an agent, but it normally isn’t broadcast so widely and to this level of specificity, much less directly quoting the surgeon. That seems to lend a bit more credence to the statement and suggests that perhaps some misinformation—unintentional, from poor sources, or otherwise—was dominating the conversation.

Now teams are taking control of the narrative. A couple general managers outside of the top five picks who could be in the market for a defensive end, and hence would stand to gain from Bowers falling and keeping the misinformation out there, are defending the health of his knee. Lions’ general manager Martin Mayhew was reported in the Detroit News as saying that while Bowers was not in “pristine physical condition” after the Lions’ doctors checked him out, which even his agent conceded, they “are not concerned about his health in terms of playing football in the future.” The Browns’ general manager, Tom Heckert, has said his doctors looked at Bowers numerous times and the knee is “going to be all right.”

If this is a serious medical issue, dropping Bowers to the mid-to-late first round isn’t enough. He’d fall to the mid-rounds where teams are willing to take a flyer on a medical risk. My opinion after everything I’ve researched on this is that the long term concerns are likely exaggerated, but you still have a player who is a one-year wonder and tested out with disappointing overall athleticism. Perhaps you can ignore the latter a bit based on his coming off rehab, but it is also all you have to go on. I think 16th to Jacksonville remains the floor for Bowers. And as long he goes in the first round, we can be relatively assured that there aren’t long term concerns about the knee.

How Serious Is Mark Ingram’s Knee Problem?
This hasn’t gotten as much coverage as Bowers, but the bottom line is pretty much the same. NFL Network’s Mike Lombardi has led the charge about unnamed teams allegedly having serious concerns about Ingram’s knee. Dr. James Andrews, among others, have apparently checked in positively on the long-term outlook. While Lombardi has several ties to many teams after a long front office career in the NFL, his longest tenure with one coach was with Bill Belichick for five years when he was in Cleveland. If you are a conspiracy theorist, you may find it interesting that the Patriots are rumored to have serious interest in Ingram, with their first pick landing two picks after the Dolphins, who are widely considered the favorite to select Ingram.

Does TCU O-Lineman Marcus Cannon Have Cancer?
TCU Director of Media Relations Mark Cohen said that rumors of Cannon being diagnosed with cancer were “a false report” and “100 percent inaccurate.” An internet draftnik started a rumor that Cannon had testicular cancer and major media outlets picked up on it.

Which Teams in Need of a QB are Looking at the Draft and Which Will Be Shopping for a Veteran?
The most significant impact of the CBA negotiations on teams so far has been the lack of a free agency period and the ability to trade players before the draft. Usually rosters are fairly sorted by this time of the year, and needs left to address in the draft are defined. Nowhere is this a bigger problem than at the most important position on the roster. Here are my guesses as to the intentions of teams with big question marks at quarterback, now that I’ve eliminated Denver from the conversation in an earlier topic.

Carolna – Despite spending two picks on quarterbacks last year, the “new regime” maxim appears to have won out and it would be an upset at this point if they didn’t draft Newton or Gabbert.

Buffalo – The team seems to have enough faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick to focus on their glaring needs on defense and at offensive tackle instead of quarterback. However, head coach Chan Gailey is known for his success with athletic quarterbacks, and this draft is stacked with them. Many still think Newton will land in Buffalo if Carolina passes on him. Colin Kaepernick or, if he falls, Jake Locker could still be possibilities at the 33rd pick. While not the same athlete as Kaepernick or Locker, Gailey recruited Christian Ponder while at Georgia Tech, so he could also be an option. I expect Buffalo to pass on a quarterback with their first pick, but they will definitely take at least a developmental prospect at some point.

Cincinnati – I could go either way with this one. I do think Carson Palmer is serious about having thrown his last pass for the Bengals, but I think owner Mike Brown is stubborn enough to ignore that and turn this into a mess for everyone. On the other hand, Brown has never been shy about pulling the trigger early on a quarterback. I think we get the answer shortly into the draft (if we don’t know before), as I expect he’ll take Newton or Gabbert with the fourth pick, or not take a quarterback it all. While head coach Marvin Lewis might feel differently, I don’t think Brown wants to plug in a vet. I think he’d rather have Palmer or reboot at the position under a new offensive coordinator.

Arizona – It has become popular to mock Gabbert with the fifth pick, especially if Von Miller isn’t there, but this division is winnable with a serviceable vet. And the Cardinals could risk alienating star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, among other veterans who were disgruntled by the house cleaning after their NFC Championship season, with another rudderless year under a young quarterback. I also think head coach Ken Whisenhunt isn’t ready to give up on John Skeleton and Max Hall as developmental prospects. Marc Bulger is the popular name associated with Arizona, but they can’t afford another disaster like Derek Anderson, and there is no guarantee Bulger do much better. If Ryan Mallett is there in the second round, I could see them taking him, which could be the best of both worlds for Whisenhunt. I have a feeling he might see Roethlisbergeresque potential in Mallett, although it’s mildly interesting to note that Whisenhunt chose to go to Auburn over Arkansas when both had their Pro Day the same day.

San Francisco – I believe head coach Jim Harbaugh would love to get his hands on Blaine Gabbert with his ideal measurables and pedigree. Other than that, I don’t see him pulling the trigger on a quarterback in the first round. I think he is confident (or arrogant) enough to think he can mold any quarterback into a serviceable option for the short-term, including Alex Smith, and spend the pick elsewhere if the perfect guy isn’t there for him.

Tennessee – GM Mike Reinfeldt emerged with the power and is done with Vince Young. New OC Chris Palmer has 20 years of NFL experience and success in developing both young and veteran quarterbacks, so that wouldn’t seem to sway their direction. The two top quarterbacks on the trade market, Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb, are in the NFC. Other than the Titans, most of the demand among those that could be considered playoff contenders, hence possibly more inclined to find a veteran option instead of a rookie, are in the NFC (Arizona, Minnesota, San Francisco, and perhaps Washington—although the McNabb experience seems to indicate Shanahan will go back to a handpicked choice he can mold from day one). So conventional wisdom is that Washington and Philadelphia would prefer to find a trade partner in the Titans instead of with an NFC team. Of course, Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid already gambled and won last year by sending his quarterback to not only another NFC team, but a division rival. However, I don’t know how interested the team is in chasing one of the big name veteran quarterbacks. Their history indicates a preference for building through the draft. I think they will definitely draft a quarterback earlier and look to supplement him with a serviceable veteran. After the Vince Young Experience, we can assume Reinfeldt will put a higher value on leadership and intangibles. While Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton both score well from a leadership perspective, their baggage—no matter how insignificant in reality—could be enough to push the team in another direction. I think they consider Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker with their eighth pick, or Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton with their second round pick.

Washington – The differences are irreconcilable between Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb at this point. Unfortunately for Shanahan, the lockout situation doesn’t allow for a resolution before the draft. The Redskins will be challenged to find a trade partner willing to give much to take on McNabb’s potential $12.75M contract, so Washington will likely end up releasing McNabb. Either way, McNabb will be gone. Rex Grossman was his typical inconsistent self in a limited audition last year, but I can’t picture Shanahan handing him the job for the 2011 season and wasting a year. However, it does give Washington some flexibility to choose more of a developmental option. I also don’t see them being in the market for a veteran option to be the long-term solution, coming off the failure with McNabb. Shanny will want to go back to molding a young, new prospect from scratch. There have been rumors connecting him to almost every top prospect; but recall that when he selected Jay Cutler, he never even met with him, so I’d disregard any rumor attaching Shanahan to a favorite.

Minnesota – After bringing Craig Johnson from Tennessee to be their new quarterbacks coach, there was speculation Vince Young could follow him. While that is still a possibility, I think Johnson is looked at as a bridge to a future quarterback that the Vikings could take in this draft, perhaps one of the many athletic choices that Johnson would be a good fit to work with. New OC Bill Musgrave helped develop a rookie quarterback to quick success with Matt Ryan in Atlanta, which could also signal the move of looking to the draft for a solution. However, this team still has the roster of a contender if they bring in a top veteran quarterback, and the rumor mill is loaded with links of Donovan McNabb to the Vikings, which I agree does make a lot of sense. He’ll need to be released or his contract renegotiated, because no one is going to pick up the $10M option he has for being on the roster after the first game plus his $2.5M base. I would rank Minnesota as the favorite for McNabb right now, although they’ll be certain to add at least a developmental prospect later in the draft.

These teams are wildcards in the quarterback scramble. All have serviceable or better options but have been linked with interest in the top prospects and could throw a wrench in the draft plans of the truly quarterback-needy teams.

Miami – Bill Parcells is gone and GM Jeff Ireland could be anxious to take the team in a new direction with a new offensive coordinator. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall recently expressed his opinion via Twitter that “Ryan Mallett will be an All-Pro Qb,” so the team’s top receiving threat seems to prefer a change at the helm. Miami has been very active in looking at quarterback prospects, but with no second round pick, they would probably need to blown away by a quarterback to neglect addressing other needs the first two days of the draft. However, I’m still getting the feeling that if the pick isn’t Mark Ingram, it could be Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville – David Garrard has rarely been afforded much job security in Jacksonville. The team seems to be perpetually considering a replacement. Last year, after having thrown for the most TDs (23) and highest completion percentage (64.5) of his career, his season ended early with a tendon disruption and ligament rupture in the middle finger of his throwing hand. GM Gene Smith has given the 33-year-old a public vote of confidence, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Jags take a quarterback early.

Seattle – Fans have much less patience for player development than coaches do. Sure, Charlie Whitehurst didn’t look like the long-term solution in his brief audition last year, but the same regime that spent a third-round pick to acquire Whitehurst last year is still in place, and I’d be more upset if I were a Seattle fan if they already have given up on him…What kind of due diligence did they put into that original decision if they already move on? While I previously had been mocking them to select a quarterback in the first round, I’ve now come around to thinking there’s probably very little chance of that happening. I think their interest is a smoke screen to try to get someone to trade up. Trading again for another unproven veteran doesn’t make much sense either, so you can rule out Kevin Kolb. The most logical option for an upgrade, while saving face, would be if an established veteran like Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb were released and signed by Seattle.

Indianapolis – GM Bill Polian usually drafts offense early and often, but he has devoted little energy to finding a mildly respectable backup quarterback. While Peyton Manning has never missed a game in his NFL career, the lack of attention given to the backup spot has been exposed both in the preseason and when Manning sits early in meaningless Week 17 games. Manning is showing no signs of wearing down at 35 and I wouldn’t rule out a Favre-like, mildly venomous, pass-aggressive reaction from him if the Colts added a quarterback early. But I don’t think Polian sweats that eventuality. At some point he needs to think about the future, and it wouldn’t be a total shock if a solid system quarterback like Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder—or even a high upside developmental prospect like Colin Kaepernick—fell to them in the second round and they made the move. Dalton has gained a lot of momentum in being associated with interest from the Colts.

Could Five Quarterbacks go in the First Round?
No. Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are locks. Newton will go in the top three and Gabbert will go in the top ten. After that, I think the only two other candidates are Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett. Locker’s accuracy is the one thing that will scare people off from him in the first round, but it only takes one team to be sold on him. As I said earlier, my opinion is that Mallett is the victim of a massive smear campaign, whether intentional or not, and ultimately his talent won’t let him fall far. The absolute floor for both I think is San Francisco with the 45th pick overall, but the night between the first and second rounds should see a trade up near the top of the second if one or both are still on the board.

I’d be surprised if Christian Ponder goes in the first round. He may be the most NFL-ready, but he lacks ideal arm strength and his injury history makes him a bit risky to lock him in as your franchise signal caller. I’ve been shocked at reports that some teams have Colin Kaepernick as the top quarterback on their board. He’s a nice developmental prospect, but he needs plenty of work to get to a point where any team could make him a starter. Andy Dalton was great in college, but I’m not convinced his ceiling isn’t merely as a quality backup at the next level.

Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

1.Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn*
It appears the Panthers are settling on taking the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s a coin flip between Gabbert and Newton at this point, with Newton getting more buzz currently and having the higher ceiling. This year we won’t be certain of the pick until the contract is signed. CB Patrick Peterson, WR A.J. Green, DL Marcell Dareus, and DE Da’Quan Bowers, a South Carolina native, are the non-QB finalists.

Previous pick: QB Blaine Gabbert

Peterson: Best value for Denver?

2.Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU*
John Fox loves his athletic big-play ends, so I could easily see DE Da’Quan Bowers being the pick here. But Fox will have more to work with on the edges with the return of Elvis Dumervil, and Robert Ayers has the opportunity for a fresh start at his natural position. Defensive tackle is a bigger need, and DL Marcel Dareus is gaining consensus as the pick here. Still, I don’t see a talented corner like Peterson falling far, even though the team re-signed Champ Bailey. Peterson is a unique talent as a big playmaking corner with speed and as a returner in the mold of Charles Woodson. This draft is deep at defensive linemen, which makes Peterson a better value at this spot.

Previous pick: Peterson

3.Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama*
Chan Gailey seems impressed enough with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to instead use this pick to help his struggling defense. If Cam Newton falls here, it could change his mind: otherwise they are probably looking at defense, although WR A.J. Green could go here based on talent. I previously mocked DE Da’Quan Bowers at this spot, and I believe he would be a great fit as the pass rushing threat they lack. While I think the press about his knee is exaggerated and/or a smokescreen, I also believe that if Buffalo doesn’t go with Newton, they will make a safe pick. Between the knee—for right or wrong—and concerns about being a one-year wonder, Bowers isn’t that guy. A lot of people are mocking OLB Von Miller in this spot, and while that makes some sense, a linebacker at three is also a big risk. Peterson and Dareus are the two safest picks on defense. Not only is Peterson not available in this mock, but if he were, the front seven would remain a bigger need than the secondary. The Bills can’t decide if they are a base 3-4 or 4-3, but Dareus is a good fit for either.

Previous pick: DE Da’Quan Bowers

4.Cincinnati Bengals – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri*
Carson Palmer appears to be serious about not returning to Cincinnati, so the Bengals will be in the market for a quarterback. When they have been before, owner Mike Brown has had no problem pulling the trigger early in the draft. Even without the acrimony from Palmer, he has been falling apart the last few years, and it would be a smart move to bring in a potential successor this year. If they wait on a quarterback, WR A.J. Green would be the pick, with Terrell Owens gone and Chad Ochocinco possibly following him…or taking his talents to the soccer pitch.

Previous pick: QB Cam Newton

5.Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
After being limited by an ankle injury early in the season, the 2009 FBS sack leader was back to terrorizing quarterbacks as the year closed. QB Blaine Gabbert has gained a lot of steam in mocks, and he should be here if Cincinnati doesn’t blink at Carson Palmer, but QB Ryan Mallett may remind head coach Ken Whisenhunt of another super-sized QB he helped develop when he was offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. However, this division is winnable if the Cardinals bring in a veteran starter, and Arizona should be high on the list of desired destinations for most of the top free agents and trade targets.

Previous pick: Miller

6.Cleveland Browns – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia*
While some of Cleveland’s young receivers have potential, Green is an elite talent who gives QB Colt McCoy—who the team appears satisfied with—the big-play target he lacks. It would be hard not to address the defensive line, but this draft is deep up front on defense and I can’t see Green getting by Cleveland.

Previous pick: Green

7.San Francisco 49ers – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
New head coach Jim Harbaugh would love to get his hands on QB Blaine Gabbert, but he’ll have to trade up to do it. CB Patrick Peterson is a popular mock choice here, and would be a no-brainer if he were available, but I don’t see him falling this far. Amukamara is being underrated after helping his stock in the post-season and will go in the first half of this round.

Previous pick: DL Marcel Dareus

8.Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Despite the departure of Jeff Fisher, GM Mike Reinfeldt has said the team still plans to follow through with their previously announced intention to trade or cut Vince Young. With Reinfeldt getting an extension, he appears to have emerged from the changes in Tennessee as the man with the most power over personnel decisions. Locker’s valuation differs wildly, but I don’t see him getting out of the first round. Without free agency this year, teams as bare at quarterback as Tennessee will feel additional pressure to address that position earlier in the draft. I think Locker’s intangibles will factor heavily for a team looking for a leader who has proven he can weather tough times. If they chose to leave the first round with Rusty Smith as their only quarterback under contract, this would be the floor for OLB Von Miller. Not likely that he makes it this far, but a stud outside linebacker could be their biggest need. It is popular to mock DT Nick Fairley here, but addressing the edges seems a bigger concern. While they went with DE Derrick Morgan in the first last year, both of last year’s starters (Jason Babin and Dave Ball) are UFAs. Jacob Ford may also be, depending on the results of the new CBA. In this mock, all the 4-3 ends are still on the board, so that could be the Titans’ plan if they decide against a quarterback. Despite Kenny Britt’s latest legal problems, I don’t think they go wide receiver here, although the run blocking of WR Julio Jones would be welcomed by RB Chris Johnson.

Previous pick: Locker

9.Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith, OT, USC*
Three of the Cowboys’ top four ends are free agents, so it will be hard to pass on all the great five-technique ends here. But the offensive line needs help, and keeping Tony Romo off the turf to utilize all their weapons has to be a priority. Smith is raw but an incredible physical specimen who could immediately replace Marc Colombo at right tackle, working his way to the left side in the future. Concerns about his playing weight being well under 300 lbs in college were alleviated when he showed up to the combine at 307. No way CB Patrick Peterson falls this far, but don’t rule out Jerry Jones trading up if he’s in love with Peterson. Other than that, this pick seems a lock to be an offensive tackle or a defensive end.

Previous pick: Smith

10.Washington Redskins – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama*
Rumor was that Mike Shanahan was a big fan of Locker last year, so that pick wouldn’t have been a surprise if he had fallen here, but he didn’t in this mock. However, this year’s rumor is that Washington wants to trade up for Gabbert. Jones has blown everyone away with his athleticism and seems a lock to be a top ten pick. He also fills a big need for this team. Addressing the defensive line is probably smarter, but intelligence never gets in the way of owner Daniel Snyder’s moves.

Previous pick: Jones

11.Houston Texans – Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina*
New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips gets a player with the potential to be another DeMarcus Ware for him. In my last mock, I had this player pegged as Aldon Smith, but Robert Quinn fits the same profile. I think Quinn is best suited as a 4-3 end but talented enough to be a success as a 3-4 outside linebacker. A benign brain tumor he’s dealt with since high school and his missing this past season as part of the agent scandal that rocked the UNC program make Quinn a risky pick. However, his freakish athleticism and pass rush ability make him worth the gamble.

Previous pick: DE/OLB Aldon Smith

12.Minnesota Vikings – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn*
After bringing in Craig Johnson from Tennessee to be their new quarterbacks coach, there was speculation that Vince Young could follow him. I think the Vikings would prefer to start fresh at the position, and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave helped develop a rookie quarterback to quick success with Matt Ryan in Atlanta. However, the only option in this mock would be QB Ryan Mallett. In this scenario, with Fairley falling to them, they have more reason to wait on selecting a quarterback. It appears some of the shine is off the Lombardi Award winner after his MVP performance in Auburn’s national championship victory, but if he falls this far, the Vikings will be sure to sweep Fairley up. With the Williams Wall crumbling, between Pat’s age and Kevin finally about to serve a four-game suspension for the StarCaps mess, addressing defensive tackle will be a big priority this offseason.

Previous pick: Fairley

13.Detroit Lions – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
If CB Prince Amukamara falls here, as he did in my last mock, I think Detroit pulls the trigger on him over an offensive tackle, but this is the other scenario. The order the offensive tackles will come off the board remains highly debatable, but with ideal measurables, four years of quality starting experience, and enough athleticism, most agree Castonzo is the safest pick because he has the highest floor.

Previous pick: CB Prince Amukamara

14.St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri**
It’s a disappointment to not have WR Julio Jones available here, but the Rams move on to address their lack of an elite pass rusher. This could be where the freefall for DE Da’Quan Bowers stops, but I think he is too similar a player to the Rams’ current defensive end, Chris Long. Smith is more of a pure speed pass rusher, better suited at right defensive end. Steve Spanuolo likes flexibility in his defensive line, which also makes ends Cameron Jordan or Adrian Clayborn nice fits here.

Previous pick: DE/OLB Robert Quinn

15.Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama*
Expected to be the strength of the Dolphins offense in 2010, the running game was extremely disappointing behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Both are free agents and past their prime, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both gone and Ingram or Mikel LeShoure as the new face of the Miami backfield. After near unanimous agreement on this pick among draftniks a few weeks ago, most have now strayed from this possibility because of concerns about Ingram’s knee. I feel this is a bit of a smokescreen and still believe in Ingram as a first-round talent. The intriguing alternative I see here is QB Ryan Mallett. I still believe Mallett’s talent will win out over drug rumors and character concerns, and this might be the last spot in the first round that makes sense, barring a trade. I think this spot is too high for any interior line prospects, which seems to be the new mock trend, so if it isn’t Ingram (or LeShoure) or Mallett, I’d expect a defensive pick.

Previous pick: Ingram

16.Jacksonville Jaguars – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson*
While it’s always difficult to predict what GM Gene Smith will do in the draft, he’s been very forthcoming about his intent to focus on improving the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is one possibility, but continuing to try to address the pass rush is another. Bowers’ freefall stops here as the Jaguars add the FBS leader in sacks (with 15.5) and second-ranked in tackles for loss (26). I believe the knee is a bit of smokescreen, but this is probably the floor for Bowers even if some concern comes with it.

Previous pick: DE Ryan Kerrigan

17.New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – Cameron Jordan, DE, California
The versatile and fundamentally-sound Jordan is the ideal Belichick player, but he may not fall this far after an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. If he does, the Patriots use the pick they acquired for Richard Seymour to get his long-term replacement. Tweener Ryan Kerrigan, another classic Belichick type of guy, could have been this pick. I could also easily see this pick and the next flipped.

Previous pick: Jordan

18.San Diego Chargers – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin*
Watt has the prototypical build for a five-technique end and rose up draft boards after showing some surprising ability to penetrate as a pass rusher.

Previous pick: Watt

19.New York Giants – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
GM Jerry Reese is hardcore advocate of drafting the best player available, so this pick could go a number of ways. While the Giants offensive line is aging, it isn’t completely broken down, so Solder has time to develop his freakish athleticism into talent on the field. I’m caving a bit to popular opinion here, as I don’t see Solder as an elite talent; he doesn’t have the footwork to protect the blindside. However, many think he’s a first-round lock—including Mike Mayock, whose opinion I respect—so I’ve fitted him in here, where Solder’s ceiling will be hard for Reese to pass on.

Previous pick: OT Anthony Castonzo

20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
This is a great draft for the Bucs to address their need at defensive end. While this spot could stop the freefall of DE Adrian Clayborn, I think Tampa Bay is looking more for a pure pass rusher. Tweener Justin Houston is also apparently a target here.

Previous pick: DE Adrian Clayborn

21.Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
The increase of 3-4 defenses in the league has put a premium on true nose tackles. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith formed a serviceable tandem during the Chief’s year of transition, but both are free agents, and Taylor has risen up draft boards after an impressive Senior Bowl week—although the expected red flags are now surfacing. Concerns about his feet and workout habits sound like smokescreens and I expect Taylor to remain in the first round.

Previous pick: Taylor

22.Indianapolis Colts – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The need and importance of offensive tackle, along with the quality of candidates who should still be available here, seem to make addressing tackle at this spot a no-brainer. The interest the Colts have displayed in Sherrod and my belief that he’s the next best available at the position make him the pick here.

Previous pick: OT Nate Solder

23.Philadelphia Eagles – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
He might lack the footwork to be a left tackle, but the right side is just as important with a left-handed Michael Vick in Philadelphia. With a nasty attitude and physical similarities to Jon Runyan, Carimi will remind some of the man Winston Justice has been unable to successfully replace at right tackle. Cornerback will be the other strong consideration here.

Previous pick: Carimi

24.New Orleans Saints – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois*
The run defense needs help, and with no playmaking linebacker a good value here, New Orleans will look to strengthen the interior.

Previous pick: DE/OLB Justin Houston

25.Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas*
Pete Carroll has a lot of holes to fill in his second season, despite backing in to the playoffs, and I don’t think he sees Charlie Whitehurst as a franchise quarterback. I still don’t believe rumors and character concerns will push Mallett’s talent out of the first round. If they pass on Mallett, defensive line, corner, and guard are other big priorities.

Previous pick: QB Christian Ponder

26.Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
No one collects passed-over talent better than the Ravens. Concerns about Smith’s personality and off-the-field issues are less important on a team with such outstanding veteran leadership. They only have Lardarius Webb and Domonique Foxworth under contract, with the latter coming off a blown knee. Efforts to plug the position with free agents haven’t been successful and they need an influx of talented youth.

Previous pick: Smith

27.Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame*
The severe hamstring injury that ended Rudolph’s season early will help the Falcons get their eventual replacement for Tony Gonzalez. With the future Hall of Famer around for another year, Rudolph has time to fully recover and be eased in to a feature role as he learns from watching one of the best.

Previous pick: Rudolph

28.New England Patriots – Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia*
The opportunity to improve their pass rush will make the Patriots wait until later picks to address the offensive line. Houston has played as both a 4-3 defensive end and a 3-4 outside linebacker in college—versatily head coach Bill Belichick will appreciate.

Previous pick: OLB/DE Brooks Reed

29.Chicago Bears – Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
While they’d prefer to address offensive tackle, this mock doesn’t provide the value at this pick, and GM Jerry Angelo turns to what he knows best: defense. The loss of Tommie Harris puts an increased priority on the interior line. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli turned supposed character challenges like Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice into consistent studs, so there shouldn’t be much concern about Austin’s baggage.

Previous pick: OT Derek Sherrod

30.New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple*
The biggest strength of this draft may be 3-4 defensive end prospects, so the Jets should find a great value here at a position where age and depth on their squad are a concern. Although he remained under the radar in the MAC, Wilkerson has been a beast at defensive tackle this season. And he has the agility and the ability to penetrate, which should make him a great fit at end for the Jets.

Previous pick: Wilkerson

31.Pittsburgh Steelers – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
While usually adhering to a policy of drafting the best player available over need, the two may converge this year. After season-ending injuries in three of his last four years and having turned 35 this year, the end is near for stalwart DE Aaron Smith. After an up-and-down season for Heyward, a dominating performance in the Sugar Bowl reminded teams of why he was one of the top prospects as a five-technique end at the beginning of 2010. Tommy John surgery in January has prevented him from working out and is hurting his draft stock, but it isn’t a long-term concern.

Previous pick: Heyward

32.Green Bay Packers – Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
The depth of the Packers was highlighted on their way to winning the Super Bowl despite a number of key injuries, so they definitely have the luxury of drafting the best player available. Clay Matthews wore down as the season went on, partly because the team lacked another consistent pass rush threat opposite him, so they fill that gap with a guy who is drawing comparisons to Matthews. Wide receiver could also be more of a need than expected as Donald Driver’s career is coming to an end and James Jones could look to cash in on free agency.

Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

33.New England (via Carolina) – Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor
The 26-year-old Canadian and former firefighter has the versatility and blue-collar work ethic that appeal to Bill Belichick.

34.Buffalo – Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
After passing on the position in the first round, the Bills add an athletic quarterback, perfect for Chan Gailey to develop, with the arm strength to cut through the Buffalo winter wind.

35.Cincinnati – Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Pouncey has benefited from name recognition, but he isn’t the prospect his twin brother was, and I think he falls out of the first round.

36.Denver – Christian Ballard, DT/DE, Iowa
After passing on Dareus in the first round, John Fox addresses the team’s biggest need, defensive tackle.

37.Cleveland – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Although regarded as one of the top overall prospects entering the year, a disappointing season saw Clayborn’s stock drop. He didn’t do himself any favors by not participating in the Senior Bowl. Concerns about the Erb Palsey in his right arm gained some legitimacy with the limited strength he displayed in the bench press despite his short arms. I believe Clayborn will fall out of the first, but his descent stops at Cleveland, where he is a nice value pick as the anchor end who can kick down inside in their new 4-3.

38.Arizona – Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU
I don’t see Arizona looking for a quarterback with any early picks in this draft. I think they are in the market for one of the veterans to compete in a very winnable division. Cannon has shocked people with his athleticism at his size and will bolster an Arizona line that needs help, whether he remains at tackle or slides inside to guard.

39.Tennessee – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA*
Ayers bounced back from a disappointing combine with a solid pro day and his stock was rebounding, but questions of his football IQ could possibly drop him out of the first round again. I see this as his floor, and the Titans will be happy to plug his talent and versatility into a linebacking corps that needs to be more productive.

40.Dallas – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas*
There are some questions as to whether Williams will have to convert to safety at the next level, but Dallas can use help at both spots and will be happy to land him here if they don’t trade up for Patrick Peterson.

41.Washington – Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech**
Jumping at the second tier of quarterbacks seems the natural move here, and I don’t know what Washington will do at quarterback if they don’t address it with one of these picks. However, Williams reminds me of Clinton Portis, and I bet Mike Shannahan sees the similarities as well.

42.Houston – Brandon Harris, CB, Miami*
A borderline first-round pick, it appears concerns about Harris’ size in a deep cornerback class will push him to the second, where the Texans will be ecstatic to find him.

43.Minnesota – Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Like the Cardinals, I believe the Vikings will look for veteran help at quarterback and chose to plug holes elsewhere on a roster that can compete for a playoff spot. The team had already seen plenty of film on Dowling coming into this season after selecting his former collegiate teammate, CB Chris Cook, last year.

44.Detroit – Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois*
After blowing up at the combine, Wilson had a less impressive pro day. Because of concerns about his neck, he likely falls out of the first round. But he could help fill a position in transition for the Lions with his versatility and athleticism.

45.San Francisco – Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
After failing to land a top quarterback with their first pick, I can see Jim Harbaugh looking for an alternative to QB Alex Smith, perhaps getting a bargain with a system quarterback who has some upside, like Ponder or Andy Dalton.

46.Denver (via Miami) – Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA*
The top-rated safety in a weak class at the position is a nice fit here for the Broncos, who have a glaring need at the position.

47.St. Louis – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh*
I previously mocked Baldwin as the last pick of the first round, so this is quite a drop. But he would make a nice consolation prize for the Rams when they miss out on Julio Jones with their first pick. They should have plenty of good options at the position even if Baldwin is gone.

48.Oakland – Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
House has nice measurables that will catch owner Al Davis’ eye as he looks to replace Nnamdi Asomugha.

49.Jacksonville – Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova
The versatile small school prospect is a nice fit to bolster Jacksonville’s offensive line.

50.San Diego – Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh
Sheard emerged from the shadow of injured teammate Greg Romeus in 2010 to be the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. A bit undersized to play with his hand on the ground at the next level, he has intriguing potential to become a 3-4 pass-rushing outside linebacker.

51.Tampa Bay – Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Expected to be a first-round pick before blowing out his ACL late in the season, Carter could be a steal here.

52.New York Giants –Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois*
A value pick here for GM Jerry Reese, who would have a new power back to replace Brandon Jacobs.

54.Philadelphia – Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
If they don’t address the position in the first round, they likely will here—or at least pick the best value between corner and linebacker. The unheralded Patrick doesn’t get much press, but he is a second-round talent.

55.Kansas City – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland*
Hands will keep the speedy Smith out of the first round, but his speed will help open things up for Dwayne Bowe.

56.New Orleans – Quan Sturdivant, ILB, North Carolina
Sturdivant may be a bit of a reach here, but the Saints will be looking to improve their linebacking corps early in the draft.

57.Seattle – Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
Lots of needs could be addressed here, especially if Seattle goes with a quarterback in round one.

58.Baltimore – James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
The top of tier two among pure offensive tackle prospects, Carpenter would be another nice steal for the Ravens.

59.Atlanta – Allen Bailey, DL, Miami
The Falcons need to address defensive end somewhere early in the draft. A freakish athlete, Bailey has struggled to translate that to success on the field, but he could sneak into the second on potential alone.

60.New England – Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky*
A strong post-season has the stock of the versatile Cobb rising. He’s a great fit in many roles, including replacing the aging Kevin Faulk as the Patriots’ check-down option.

61.San Diego (via New York Jets) – Titus Young, WR, Boise State
The wide receiver situation remains a bit uncertain in San Diego.

62.Chicago – Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
Hankerson’s post-season should push him into the second round, and GM Jerry Angelo loves players from The U.

63.Pittsburgh – Jason Pinkston, OL, Pittsburgh
Although a collegiate tackle, Pinkston has more upside as a guard, but his flexibility is a bonus on an offense with a lot of questions up front.

64.Green Bay – DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
Despite their overall success after losing starting back Ryan Grant for the season, the running game was inconsistent and needs some help, even with Grant returning.

Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

1.Carolina Panthers – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri*It appears the Panthers are coming around on taking the opportunity to draft a franchise QB with the first overall pick. It’s a coin flip between Gabbert and Newton at this point. CB Patrick Peterson or DE Da’Quan Bowers would be the non-QB possibilities.

2.Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU*John Fox loves his athletic big-play ends, so I could easily see DE Da’Quan Bowers being the pick here. But Fox will have more to work with on the edge with the return of Elvis Dumervil, and Robert Ayers has the opportunity for a fresh start at his natural position. DT is a bigger need, and DL Marcel Dareus is gaining consensus as the pick here; still, I don’t see a talented corner like Peterson falling far, even though the team re-signed Champ Bailey. Peterson is a unique talent as a big playmaking corner with speed and as a returner in the mold of Charles Woodson. This draft is deep at DT, which makes Peterson a better value at this spot.

3.Buffalo Bills – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson*Chan Gailey seems impressed enough with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to instead use this pick to help his struggling defense. An impressive physical specimen, Bowers finally put it all together on the field, leading all FBS schools with 15.5 sacks and ranking second with 26 tackles for loss. The Bills can’t decide if they are a base 3-4 or 4-3, but Bowers is a good fit for either.

4.Cincinnati Bengals – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn*Carson Palmer appears to be serious about retiring if he isn’t traded, so Cincinnati will be in the market for a QB, and they never shy away from talent, regardless of off-the-field concerns. If they wait on a quarterback, WR A.J. Green would be the pick, with Terrell Owens gone and Chad Ochocinco possibly following him…or taking his talents to the soccer pitch.

5.Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&MAfter being limited by an ankle injury early in the season, the 2009 FBS sack leader was back to terrorizing quarterbacks as the year closed. Ryan Mallett may remind head coach Ken Whisenhunt of another super-sized QB he helped to develop when he was offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, but this division is winnable if the Cardinals bring in a veteran starter.

Green: Perhaps the most talented overall prospect in the draft.

6.Cleveland Browns – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia*While some of Cleveland’s young receivers have potential, Green is an elite talent who can give QB Colt McCoy—who the team appears satisfied with—the big-play target he lacks. It would be hard to pass on DL Marcel Dareus, but I can’t see Green getting by Cleveland.

7.San Francisco 49ers – Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama*New head coach Jim Harbaugh would love to get his hands on QB Blaine Gabbert, but he’ll have to trade up to do it. CB Patrick Peterson is a popular mock choice here, and would be a no-brainer if he were available, but I don’t see him falling this far. Not sure Dareus is the ideal player for them, but I also can’t see him falling much farther than this.

8.Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB, WashingtonDespite the departure of Jeff Fisher, GM Mike Reinfeldt has said the team still plans to follow through with their previously announced intention to trade or cut Vince Young. Locker’s valuation differs wildly, but I don’t see him getting out of the first round. Without free agency this year, teams as bare at quarterback as Tennessee will feel additional pressure to address that position earlier in the draft. I previously had QB Ryan Mallett here, and I still think his talent won’t be overlooked, but I’m temporarily caving to the overwhelming opinions and rumors that have him falling out of the first round.

9.Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith, OT, USC*Three of the Cowboys’ top four ends are free agents, so it’s hard to pass on all the great five-technique ends here, but the offensive line needs help, and keeping Tony Romo off the turf to utilize all their weapons has to be a priority. Smith is raw, but an incredible physical specimen who could immediately replace Marc Colombo at right tackle, working his way to the left side in the future. Concerns about his playing weight being well under 300 lbs in college were alleviated when he showed up to the Combine at 307.

10.Washington Redskins – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama*Rumor was that Mike Shanahan was a big fan of Locker last year, so that pick wouldn’t have been a surprise if he fell here, but he didn’t in this mock. Jones has blown everyone away with his athleticism and seems a lock to be a top ten pick. He also fills a big need for this team.

11.Houston Texans – Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri**New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips gets a player with the potential to be another DeMarcus Ware for him.

12.Minnesota Vikings – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn*After bringing in Craig Johnson from Tennessee to be their new quarterbacks coach, there was speculation that Vince Young would follow him. I think the Vikings would prefer to start fresh at the position, and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave helped develop a rookie QB to quick success with Matt Ryan in Atlanta. However, the only option in this mock would be QB Ryan Mallett, and I already covered my concerns with him early in the first round. In this scenario, with Fairley falling to them, they have more reason to wait on selecting a quarterback. It appears some of the shine is off the Lombardi Award winner after his MVP performance in Auburn’s national championship victory, but if he falls this far, the Vikings will be sure to sweep him up. With the Williams Wall crumbling, between Pat’s age and Kevin finally about to serve a four-game suspension for the StarCaps mess, addressing DT will be a big priority this offseason.

13.Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara, CB, NebraskaCornerback is a strength in this draft class, so the Lions could look in other directions at this pick, but I don’t think they pass up Amukamara if he is available here.

14.St. Louis Rams – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina*It’s a disappointment to not have WR Julio Jones available here, but the Rams move on to address their lack of an elite pass rusher. A brain tumor in high school and missing this past season as part of the agent scandal that rocked the UNC program make Quinn a risky pick. However, his freakish athleticism and ability, reminiscent of another former Tar Heel, Julius Peppers, make the reward high.

15.Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama*Expected to be the strength of the Dolphins offense, the running game was extremely disappointing behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Both are free agents and past their prime, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both gone and Ingram or Mikel LeShoure as the new face of the Miami backfield.

16.Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, PurdueWhile it’s always difficult to predict what GM Gene Smith will do in the draft, he’s been very forthcoming about his intent to focus on improving talent on the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is one possibility, but continuing to address the pass rush is another. With a clean record off the field and a tireless motor on it, Kerrigan is a nice fit for Smith, who values character highly.

17.New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – Cameron Jordan, DE, CaliforniaThe versatile and fundamentally-sound Jordan is the ideal Belichick player, but he may not fall this far after an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. If he does, the Patriots use the pick they acquired for Richard Seymour to get him. Tweener Ryan Kerrigan, another classic Belichick type of guy, could have been the pick here if Jacksonville had let him slip by. I could also easily see this pick and the next flipped.

18.San Diego Chargers – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin*Watt has the prototypical build for a five-technique DE and rose up draft boards after showing some surprising ability to penetrate as a pass rusher.

19.New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston CollegeThe value in this draft looks like it will be at offensive tackle. Despite a number of potential left tackle prospects, none have separated themselves from the pack yet. After the NFL Combine, one or more are likely to be locked in to the top half of the draft because of the importance of the position. With ideal measurables, four years of quality starting experience, and plenty of athleticism, Castonzo is a good bet to be the first off the board.

20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DE, IowaAfter being regarded as one of the top overall prospects entering the year, a disappointing season dropped Clayborn’s stock. He didn’t do himself any favors by not participating in the Senior Bowl. He could be a value pick for the Bucs here, who look to bolster their edge pass rushing after focusing on the interior line in last year’s draft. However, an underwhelming performance at the NFL Combine could have him fall out of the first round.

21.Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor, NT, BaylorThe increase of 3-4 defenses in the league has put a premium on true nose tackles. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith formed a serviceable tandem during the team’s year of transition, but both are free agents, and Taylor has been rising up draft boards after an impressive Senior Bowl week.

22.Indianapolis Colts – Nate Solder, OT, ColoradoHere’s another pick I’m caving a bit to popular opinion on. The position is fine; it’s the player that concerns me. I don’t see elite talent in Solder—lots of potential, but I don’t think he has the footwork to protect the blindside right now. Many think he’s a lock in the first round—including Mike Mayock, whose opinion I respect—so I’ve fitted him in here, where the Colts seem likely to address the position.

23.Philadelphia Eagles – Gabe Carimi, OT, WisconsinHe might lack the footwork to be a left tackle, but the right side is just as important with a left-handed Michael Vick in Philadelphia. With a nasty attitude and some physical similarities to Jon Runyan, Carimi will remind some of the man Winston Justice has been unable to successfully replace at RT.

24.New Orleans Saints – Justin Houston, DE, GeorgiaI think Houston has more potential with his hand on the ground than as a 3-4 OLB, but the versatility doesn’t hurt, as New Orleans also needs help at linebacker.

25.Seattle Seahawks – Christian Ponder, QB, Florida StatePete Carroll has a lot of holes to fill in his second season, despite backing in to the playoffs. Cornerback might be the most immediate concern, but I don’t think he sees Charlie Whitehurst as a franchise QB.

26.Baltimore Ravens – Jimmy Smith, CB, ColoradoNo one collects passed-over talent better than the Ravens. Concerns about Smith’s personality and off-the-field issues are less important on a team with such outstanding veteran leadership. They only have Lardarius Webb and Domonique Foxworth under contract, with the latter coming off a blown knee. Efforts to plug the position with free agents haven’t been successful and they need an influx of talented youth.

27.Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame*The severe hamstring injury that ended Rudolph’s season early will help the Falcons get their eventual replacement for Tony Gonzalez. With the future Hall of Famer around for another year, Rudolph has time to fully recover and be eased in to a feature role as he learns from watching one of the best.

28.New England Patriots – Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona StateAfter a strong Combine that showed he should be able to play with his hand off the ground, Reed has been moving up draft boards. Visions of a poor man’s Clay Matthews force the Patriots to wait on addressing their offensive line.

29.Chicago Bears – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi StateThe only surprise at this pick will be which offensive tackle GM Jerry Angelo selects. He tried but failed to strengthen their protection on the edge the last time the Bears had a first-round pick (2008), with Chris Williams moving to guard this year. This draft sets the Bears up nicely for another opportunity to fill their biggest need, after leading the league in sacks allowed.

30.New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple*The biggest strength of this draft may be 3-4 DE prospects, so the Jets should find a great value here at a position where age and depth on their squad are a concern. Under the radar in the MAC, Wilkerson has been a beast at DT this season, but he has the agility and the ability to penetrate that should make him a great fit at end for the Jets.

31.Pittsburgh Steelers – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio StateWhile usually strictly adhering to a policy of drafting the best player available over need, the two may converge this year. After season-ending injuries in three of the last four years and having turned 35 this year, the end is near for stalwart DE Aaron Smith. After an up-and-down season for Heyward, a dominating performance in the Sugar Bowl reminded teams of why he was one of the top prospects as a five-technique DE at the beginning of 2010. Tommy John surgery in January has prevented him from working out and is hurting his draft stock, but it isn’t a long-term concern.

32.Green Bay Packers – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh*The depth of the Packers was highlighted on their way to winning the Super Bowl despite a number of key injuries, so they definitely have the luxury of drafting the best player available. WR could be more of a need than expected as Donald Driver’s career is coming to an end and James Jones could look to cash in on free agency.

The offense wrapped up their tests and drills at the NFL Scouting Combine over the weekend. Let’s review some of the highlights at the top three fantasy positions.

Quarterbacks
Instead of outright denial regarding the rampant drug allegations, which have yet to remotely demonstrate having a reliable source, Ryan Mallett chose to take the “no comment” route and say that teams “know what they need to know” from him. That righteous indignation unfortunately leaves the door open for the interpretation that he is hiding something, which is what most pundits assumed and then panned him for. However, he put on a clinic with his passing, and he was universally praised for it. I mentioned in my first mock in an earlier blog post, he did nothing but improve on the field last season, and until there proves to be any modicum of truth to these rumors about him, there’s no reason to downgrade him. Jake Locker also threw very well and, as expected, tested brilliantly. In addition to Mallett and Locker doing well, Christian Ponder was excellent in drills and built on a great Senior Bowl, continuing to elevate his stock as the forearm injury that hampered his 2010 season heals. Also impressive throwing was Josh Portis, who I highlighted in the previous blog post. He is shaping up to be the John Skelton of this class—the small-school guy who goes later in the mid-rounds with buzz of being an appealing developmental third-stringer.

As predicted in my Combine Preview, none of the excellent athletes in this quarterback class disappointed in tests. Throwing the ball was another story. After demonstrating great athleticism in the tests, Cam Newton was less impressive spinning the ball in drills. He didn’t necessarily hurt his draft stock, but he also didn’t lock down the case to be a top three pick, which some thought he might do this weekend. Blaine Gabbert tested well athletically but, as expected, did not throw at the Combine and was the only quarterback not to do so. Despite reports of disgruntled team personnel and the competitive questions it raises, this philosophy has proven to be a non-factor for top prospects. Gabbert seems to remain the clubhouse leader as the consensus top quarterback prospect coming out of the Combine. But it’s a close competition, so he’d better impress while throwing at his Pro Day on March 17th.

Running Backs
After a breakout 2008 season with Maryland, Da’Rel Scott was sidelined for most of the 2009 season and ended up in a RBBC in 2010. However, he ended the season with a big performance in the Military Bowl and then had a nice showing at the Senior Bowl as a late addition to replace the injured Daniel Thomas. Scott continued his positive momentum with some great test results at the Combine, including a 4.34 40-yard dash, the fastest official time turned in by any player over the weekend. He isn’t a very elusive runner and he likes to bounce outside despite his good size, but he is a quality receiver and his elite speed will move him up draft boards. Scott has a track background, which makes the results of the second fastest running back, Mario Fannin, even more surprising. Fannin ran a 4.38 despite being, at 231 pounds, one of the biggest backs. He was very athletic and looked good in drills and is now another riser coming out of the combine. Derrick Locke was right up there with a 4.40 time, and he looked very fluid in drills. Unlike some backs, his timed speed translates to his game speed. He is another guy who continues to build on the momentum of a strong Senior Bowl.

DeMarco Murray surprised me with his 4.41 time. He came into Oklahoma as a burner, but after a litany of injuries, his game seemed less about speed and more well-rounded in 2010. Murray showed he still has home-run speed and may have put himself back into the top tier of running back prospects. However, Daniel Thomas remains out of it for me because he chose not to workout, saying that he is still rehabbing the hamstring injury that also kept him out of the Senior Bowl. I have big questions about his speed and athleticism, and he’s one guy I’m not sold yet as a top-tier prospect. The other consensus top prospects slightly disappointed in the speed department: Mark Ingram, Mikel Leshoure, and Ryan Williams all landed right around 4.60. Except for Williams, their times weren’t a surprise, but better ones would have helped. I thought Williams had more speed, but both he and Leshoure showed good athleticism in other tests. Williams looked very good in the drills. Leshoure showed he is what he is—a north-south power runner lacking agility and elusiveness.

We’ll have a better idea of how to interpret 40 times when the 10-yard splits come out on these guys. That measure of burst is just as important. Ingram reportedly clocked an excellent 1.53. Delone Carter, Roy Helu Jr., and Dion Lewis also helped themselves with good tests and performances in drills. Jordan Todman surprised by coming in at just over 200 pounds, but showed no loss of speed (4.40) or athleticism. I was disappointed that Bilal Powell did not work out. I couldn’t find the reason why. He is coming off an impressive Senior Bowl, and he may have torpedoed his momentum if his absence was not related to an injury. The most disappointed guy in this group has to be John Clay. After topping out at 268 coming off ankle surgeries last spring, and reportedly playing around 250, he was down to 230 at the combine in hopes of showing more speed and athleticism. That became an epic fail when he turned in the worst 40 time in the running back group, barely breaking 4.90. He also has surprisingly small hands—a minor issue, but just another negative about a guy who once was thought to be the next Brandon Jacobs.

Wide Receivers
A pair of small school (DII) guys turned in the fastest times over the weekend, with Ricardo Lockette and Edmond Gates both clocking an official time of 4.37 in the 40-yard dash. Gates ran it with a visibly bothersome groin injury that eventually caused him to pull out of some other workouts. In addition to his great 40 time, Lockette looked good catching the ball as well, showing he is clearly not just a track guy playing football. Julio Jones was the only other receiver to post a sub-4.4 and had one of the best all-around performances by anyone over the weekend. His 11’3” broad jump was just shy of a combine record, and he had a very good 38.5” vertical and a solid—for a wideout—17 reps on the bench. In the drills, Jones looked smooth for the most part and caught the ball well. He solidified his status as a first-round pick. A.J. Green also looked good in the drills (although he has some drops) and came away with some nice test results: a solid 4.50 40, 18 reps on the bench, and a 10’6” broad jump were the highlights. Jonathan Baldwin helped himself with fantastic testing and good hands in drills. He’s back in the first-round discussion, if he had ever left it.

Leonard Hankerson, on the other hand, was a mixed bag. He was eaten alive by the gauntlet drill (several throwers firing balls at you from alternating sides every few strides—you catch and drop and then look for the next, running as fast as you can). But he surprised people with an excellent 4.43 time in the 40. I like him a lot at the top of the second tier of wide receiver prospects. The duo from Boise State disappointed a bit, as Titus Young didn’t have the elite speed expected and was average in drills, while Austin Pettis showed less speed than expected, both timed and in drills, although he did look good running routes. Torrey Smith was plenty fast, although not as fast as former teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey, but his hands looked disappointingly similar with some bad drops. Randall Cobb was fast and caught the ball very well. He helped himself a lot and looks like a prototypical slot receiver. Terrence Toliver and Tori Gurley showed great hands but little burst or deep speed. They’re a couple of big possession receivers. Niles Paul had a good combination of test and drill performances, but he’s built more like a running back than a receiver.

The National Invitation Combine (NIC), better known as the NFL Combine, starts this Wednesday (2/23) and runs through the following Tuesday (3/1). 330 NFL prospects eligible to be drafted (276 seniors and 54 underclassmen) will be interviewed, measured, poked, prodded and workout in Indianapolis. North Carolina will be the represented the most, with 12 players receiving invites. The full official list of invitees can be found here. Media are not allowed in the actual workout sessions, so you can see exactly the same coverage they will be writing about on the NFL Network. The complete schedule of the network’s coverage can be found here.

Workouts to Watch
Here are some of the players whose overall workouts, or at least a specific event, will be must-see TV for draftniks.

Dontay Moch, OLB/DE, Nevada – perhaps no event at the Combine, for purely entertainment purposes, is more highly anticipated than Moch’s 40-yard dash. The BLESTO and National report from last spring (for an explanation of those two scouting services, draftdaddy.com has an excellent summary in this article) had the undersized DE (built more like a big RB at just under 6’2” and 230 pounds) with a 4.25 time. The lore already building is that he initially ran a 4.18 and was asked to run again, because no one believed it could be accurate when he posted the “verified” time. However, Nevada is considered a “fast track”, so there is some belief he and their other players are unlikely to live up to some of the high expectations for speed.

Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon – a torn right lateral meniscus at the Senior Bowl should prevent us from seeing his full range of amazing athletic ability, but if he can still bench, that will be another sideshow people are looking forward to. With a personal best of 44 reps of 225 pounds, he is regarded as the best threat to the Combine record of 51.

Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia – after a disappointing season, the outlook isn’t good for the smallest and lightest player in the draft, but he is one of the favorites to turn in the top overall 40-yard dash time.

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – one of the top overall athletes in the draft has a father who is a professional speed coach; think he’ll be prepared?

Allen Bailey, DL, Miami – his chiseled body impressed at the Senior Bowl weigh-in, but he continued to fail to standout on the field. He reportedly power cleans 400 pounds, squats 570 pounds and bench presses 405 with a 39-inch vertical and a 4.65 40-yard dash. When UM strength coach Andreu Swasey calls someone the most freakish athlete he’s seen in his decade on a team that has produced more than a few of them, that is quite a statement.

Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – standing over a verified 6’8”, the converted TE is a man-mountain who is expected to be this year’s Bruce Campbell when he workouts. While still a project, he is rated significantly higher than Campbell (who ended up a fourth-round pick) heading in to the Combine.

Virgil Green, TE, Nevada – Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insiders and Sports Illustrated reports here that Green could come close to turning in the same kind of amazing performance by a TE that Vernon Davis did in 2006.

Tyron Smith, OT, USC – the biggest mistake on most mock drafts I see is no offensive tackle being projected in the first half of the draft. The position is too important. There is a good collection of solid prospects that look like late first through second round picks, and while I agree it is hard to differentiate them now, one or two will inevitably emerge out of the Combine. As an underclassman who hasn’t gotten an opportunity yet for more exposure in the senior all-star games, Smith could be one of the risers. He reportedly is up over 300 pounds (he played at around 285, which was a concern) and supposedly hasn’t lost any athleticism. If true, he’ll gain some separation from the pack coming out of the Combine.

Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland – lost among some of the big names in the draft, the underclassmen is expected to impress with his speed, like former teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey. Unlike DHB, Smith can catch and is looking to sneak in to the late first round for a team looking for a deep threat.

The Quarterbacks – despite the race being wide open to be the first QB selected, it sounds like, as usual, most of the top prospects won’t be throwing (although Jake Locker reportedly will). That’s a bit disappointing, but the good news there is an unusually high number of great all-around athletes in this QB class. Locker, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, Christian Ponder, and Josh Portis could all log some explosion, speed, and agility numbers in tests that look more like they belong to running backs than quarterbacks. Portis is a guy I’m especially interested in. A cousin of Clinton Portis, he was Urban Meyer’s first recruit at Florida, then transferred to Maryland, but was ineligible and ended up at DII California (PA). He didn’t show much in the NFLPA All-Star Game, but he has the size and is supposedly is an excellent runner with a live arm.

Small School Guys – there are always a few small school guys who breakthrough with impressive workouts at the Combine and end up mid-round picks. Nobody follows them like Josh Buchanan, so I’ll just direct you to the article on his website about who to watch out for at the Combine.

Before deciding to return to school, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was considered a lock to be the first player selected in 2011 NFL Draft. A quarterback being selected first would be no surprise, as the prevailing mentality is that the worst team in the league must find a shiny new college quarterback to energize the franchise. In fact, eight of the last ten drafts have begun with one being selected. What would have been unusual, however, was that Luck was just a third-year sophomore.

Players just three years removed for their high school graduation have been eligible to petition to enter the NFL draft only since 1990 (previously the league had required four years). And the only redshirt sophomore drafted first overall was Michael Vick, ten years ago. While Luck won’t be joining the draft this year, the top quarterback prospects jockeying to be first-round picks are still primarily underclassmen. The lone senior prospect is Washington quarterback Jake Locker, who many believed would have challenged Sam Bradford last year as the first overall pick if he had declared early for the 2010 draft. However, after an injury-plagued and inconsistent senior season, Locker is no longer the favorite to be even the first quarterback selected.

Gabbert will be one of the first QBs taken in the 2011 draft.

A trio of underclassmen whose stock ascended through autumn are now in the discussion. Super-sized Arkansas junior Ryan Mallett continued his successful development on the field, and although exaggerated rumors of character concerns have him falling with pundits and draftniks, his potential should keep him from falling very far. With some help from the overhype machine in Bristol, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert became the initial favorite to replace Luck as the first quarterback selected, but the new flavor of the week is Auburn junior Cam Newton after he impressed the media with his workout commercial recently. An undefeated regular season, a Heisman Trophy, a national championship, and a propagandistic, made-for-media workout later, it’s easy to forget that Newton was a JUCO transfer and hardly on the 2011 NFL radar just months ago.

It is unusual for so many underclassmen quarterbacks to be considered top prospects. Only four times in the last 20 years has the first round seen more than one selected at the position. Presumably, much of this can be attributed to the conventional wisdom that a quarterback is already a historically risky proposition to spend a first-round pick on, and underclassmen are even more of a gamble. They have less experience and often lack the mental and emotional maturity to succeed quickly. Legendary coach Bill Parcells had guidelines based on that perspective for evaluating the position. They were broken down into four “rules” for drafting quarterbacks. As explained by K.C. Joyner in an article on ESPN.com last year, Parcells’ picks had to (1) be a three-year starter, (2) lead team to at least 23 victories, (3) be a senior, and (4) be a college graduate. The first three criteria deal with those experience and maturity aspects, but the last goes deeper. Graduation may seem redundant, or possibly unnecessary, in lieu of the rest of the list, but it actually adds another dimension—the dedication and focus to achieve a long-term goal.

Two years ago, another trio of underclassmen quarterbacks were all on their way to being first round picks. Before that draft, Vic Carucci of NFL.com wrote an article analyzing the recent history of underclassmen quarterbacks and demonstrated their higher risk through empirical evidence. Let’s update his chart since then (amending an error in the omission of Aaron Rodgers on his list) and revisit the discussion of drafting an underclassmen quarterback in the first round.

Underclassmen QBs Drafted in 1st Round 1990-2010

Draft

Name

#

Team

School

2009

Matthew Stafford

1

Lions

Georgia

2009

Mark Sanchez

5

Jets

USC

2009

Josh Freeman

17

Buccaneers

Kansas State

2007

JaMarcus Russell

1

Raiders

LSU

2006

Vince Young

3

Titans

Texas

2005

Alex Smith

1

49ers

Utah

2005

Aaron Rodgers

24

Packers

California

2004

Ben Roethlisberger

11

Steelers

Miami (Ohio)

2003

Rex Grossman

22

Bears

Florida

2001

Michael Vick*

1

Falcons

Virginia Tech

1999

Tim Couch

1

Browns

Kentucky

1998

Ryan Leaf

2

Chargers

Washington State

1994

Heath Shuler

3

Redskins

Tennessee

1994

Trent Dilfer

6

Buccaneers

Fresno State

1993

Drew Bledsoe

1

Patriots

Washington State

1992

Tommy Maddox*

25

Broncos

UCLA

1991

Todd Marinovich*

24

Raiders

USC

1990

Jeff George

1

Colts

Illinois

1990

Andre Ware

7

Lions

Houston

* Third-year sophomore

A record three underclassmen quarterbacks drafted in the first round of 2009 ratcheted up the sample set. As this is a copycat league, their progress in the last two years will likely have a proportionally greater influence on the decisions of front offices this year than further back. Injuries have impeded the beginning of Stafford’s career, but the results and leadership when he has played have been promising for an organization beginning to turn things around after years of futility. While Sanchez still shows inconsistency week-to-week, he led a stacked club deep into a conference championship for the second straight season. Finally, Freeman’s progress in his second season has been tremendous, and the future looks brighter as he grows with a young core of promising skill players around him. Going back a few more years, you find Roethlisberger and Rodgers, who have won three of the last six Super Bowls. While cautionary tales like JaMarcus Russell remain out there, limiting the scope of that list to more recent history shows that taking an underclassman at quarterback has produced more beneficial results than in the past. The poster boys for the maturity concern are Michael Vick and Vince Young. Vick initially helped Atlanta and has triumphantly returned playing elsewhere, but was that middling success worth the price of Vick’s transgressions and the lack of long-term return for the Falcons? Similarly for Young, he may ultimately find sustained success, but it won’t be for Tennessee, and his problems contributed to costing a head coach his job.

One thing is obvious, Parcells’ criteria is oversimplified for today’s league. As college football has evolved into a big business, with teams employing complex NFL offenses and the pressure to win being immense, the learning curve and timeline to mature has sped up for these young men. And enough have quickly achieved success in the NFL to dispel at least one notion: An underclassman quarterback is no more of a risk as a first-round pick than a senior graduate.