Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Giannoulias has a small lead

In a race pitting two of the weakest Senate candidates in the country Alexi Giannoulias continues to hold a small lead over Mark Kirk, 37-35, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones pulling 9%. Voters in the heavily Democratic state it seems would narrowly prefer a Democratic candidate they don't like to a Republican candidate they don't like.

Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can't win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn't doing that right now. He's getting only 5%. Kirk's getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it's going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.

Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.

These polls results are premised on an extremely depressed Democratic electorate. Those surveyed report having voted for Barack Obama by only 9 points, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state in 2008. That's a dropoff even worse than what Democrats saw in Virginia last year and the fact that Kirk is behind even when that's the case does not bode well if Democratic interest in this election gets any better over the next three months. And it's not as if Illinois voters just don't know Giannoulias yet- they know him and they know they don't like him and they still give him a small lead.

In Kirk Republicans got the candidate they wanted in this race. But it looks more and more like they might have wanted the wrong candidate. There's no way with everything that's happened to Giannoulias since the last couple weeks before the primary that he should be ahead in this race. But he's hanging on...

10 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I think this race is bound to be shaped by the fact that Kirk just hasn't excited his base. 66% of self-identified conservatives are not going to cross him over his necessary threshold to win. Actually, the majority of the undecided in this poll are self-identified moderates and conservatives, not liberals. I have a hard time believing in Illinois, that despite all of the corruption, that the conservative/moderate electorate in the state will sit this race out in November, when it is the 1st competitive senate election in the state in 12 years, and in a year of national energy on the right political flank.

Eh why your analysis has some truth, I think it spins a little too much for Giannoulias. Yes Kirk should be ahead, but at the same time there are many ominous signs for Giannoulias. The fact that Democratic interest in this race is low despite the fact that the President campaigned for him a few weeks ago is not a good sign. I'd say their bad press in the last few weeks has been equal. Kirk had the motorboat lie (not a big deal but reminds people of his other lie), flip flopped on the state bailout bill within 24 hours and the whole x-wife thing. At the same time Giannoulias has had Resko and pulling out of the Israel forum with no real good reason. I'd say they've had an equally bad week, so it should be a tie, which it essentially is. If Democrats aren't fired up about this race after President Obama campaigned for Giannoulias, that is not a good sign for turnout in November.

If all things stay the same, Kirk will win because its a republican year. Voters are very disenfranchised with the party in control will vote for candidates they still might not even like.

If this was a slightly conservative year or neutral year, I wouldn't like Kirk's chances. Because its a conservative tidal wave type year, you have to put your money on him unless another huge blunder happens.

If you would have polled me, I would have been among the undecided voters even though I KNOW I will be voting for Randy Stufflebeam. Kirk is way too far to the left on many of the issues important to me. I was part of the record breaking write-in campaign for Randy when he ran against Democratic Blagojevich and Republican Topinka for the same reason. I will be voting for Republican Bill Brady in the gubernatorial race.

Please include Randy on your next poll. Check out his website at www.runrandyrun.com to see that he has been working hard to challenge the Republican objections to adding his name to the ballot. It looks like he has been successful in fighting their signature objections.

"If all things stay the same, Kirk will win because its a republican year."

Two things: One, IL is a strongly Dem state, so you'd have to give the edge to Giannoulias if he's still winning now among likely voters with an electorate that's way more Republican than in 2008. Two, the wave is not uniform, as we see in this week's polls and comparing them to our previous polls of occasional voters, rather than likely voters. IL actually became more Republican than PA did when compared to our previous surveys of those races, yet Giannoulias is hanging onto the same lead (actually, one point bigger) as he had in June. Meanwhile, the narrower PA electorate moved less to the right than did IL, but Toomey now has a 9-point lead, versus a tie in June. And then there are states like CO, which aren't looking much worse at all for Dems than they did in the last two cycles. Hickenlooper is romping in the gov. race, and Bennet is hanging onto a slim lead over Buck in the Senate race, at least among registered voters.

Just the fact that the race has stabilized is good for Kirk. He's bottomed out after several rough months. From here he can focus and run a much more solid campaign that won't be on the defensive.

The trouble with Giannoulias is that the bad stuff keeps dribbling out about him. There's no enthusiasm gain to be had in the next three months. Not even Obama in his home state can rally the numbers. This is Kirk's race as long Randy Stuflebeam(??) doesn't ruin it for him.

"And then there are states like CO, which aren't looking much worse at all for Dems than they did in the last two cycles. Hickenlooper is romping in the gov. race, and Bennet is hanging onto a slim lead over Buck in the Senate race, at least among registered voters."

I don't think this has anything to do with there being any less of wave in Colorado, it has more to do with the GOP candidates imploding. Buck is up in likely voter polls and despite the media labeling him a tea party person like angle, he really is not. He's competent and will probably win.