Tuesday Storm Update (8:10 pm)

I thought I would give you all a quick update on Tuesday’s storms. I’ve had some questions about the timing of the storms. That’s actually quite difficult to nail down and that’s why you see so many of us, including the NWS, advise to just be weather aware all day. There’s a reason for that.

First of all, this isn’t just a cut and dry severe weather forecast. We have two main culprits that will be instigating severe weather. The first is a warm front that will be moving in during the morning hours. That front will carry the risk of large hail, as warm fronts are known to do in this kind of environment. I don’t expect widespread severe weather, but some of us could see some good-sized hail and gusty winds. The threat from this front looks highest between 10:00 am to 1:00 pm.

Then, we will get a break in the action. Let’s hope the sun doesn’t come out, because that would warm us up even more and destabilize the atmosphere more than it will already be. Let’s hope the warm front keeps us cloudy and rainy and more stable.

The cold front will come through in the evening and bring another risk for severe storms. This time, we have to worry about damaging straight-line winds and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest risk from this looks to be from about 5:00 to 9:00 pm, but that could change.

Please stay weather-aware tomorrow. The main thing for me to watch tomorrow is where that warm front gets to in the morning. That front will be the main focus for the highest tornado threat. Right now, that looks to be across southern Middle TN but that could easily shift northward. Need less to say, let’s just all keep our guard up tomorrow. The tornado threat is not high, but it only takes one for it to matter to you.

Be sure and check the blog regularly tomorrow. Better yet, “follow” the blog and get an email every time I update the blog.