Watching and Waiting: Rick Perry 2012

One pundit thinks Governor Perry should jump into the ring. A new Gallup Poll shows Perry continues to do well nationally. Perhaps sensing this, the Governor is adding more key electoral state travel to his schedule. At home, however, some of the Governor's opponents are hoping to draw attention to what they say are the bad parts of his record in office.

Rick Perry for…Heavy Weight Champ

Move over Lex Luger. There’s a new "total package" in town, and his name is Rick Perry.

"He has led Texas, which has been one of the leading economies in the nation, and in many ways has been seen as 'recession-proof.' He has lengthy experience as a Chief Executive, having been governor of Texas since George W. Bush departed. He has been a vocal advocate of states’ rights, and opposed the stimulus and Obama-care. He openly blasts other forms of “tyranny” from Washington, dating all the way back to the New Deal. He is a social conservative, enough to satisfy the religious right, but does not seem to take it to the lengths of a Rick Santorum. He is a good speaker and debater, and he also looks Presidential. "In many ways Rick Perry is the total package."

If I were Mitt Romney, I’d be praying I didn’t draw the Gov in a cage match on my conservative values. As for Michelle Bachmann, I might want to hit the gym to brush up on my economic bona fides. And I don’t see Perry being touched by a masked, high-flying Tim Pawlenty or a Herman Cain sleeper hold.

Perry Tied With Romney? Bye-Bye Bachmann?

One June 30, we blogged about a nationwide Fox News poll of GOP primary voters that showed Rick Perry in second place in a field of both declared and undeclared Republican candidates, trailing only Mitt Romney.

A new nationwide poll from Gallup released earlier today shows more of the same: in a field of declared and undeclared Republican presidential candidates, Perry polls second with 15% of the vote trailing only Romney with 17%. Sarah Palin (12%), Rudy Giuliani (11%), and Michelle Bachman (11%), round out the top five.

Given the poll’s 4% margin of error, it is statistically possible to say that Governor Perry is now tied with or possibly even outpolling Mitt Romney.

But, not so fast. If you remove Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani from the survey, Romney’s percentage climbs to 23% while Perry’s climbs as well, only to 18% however. One possible explanation for this gap is that the moderate voters who would support Giuliani will largely shift their support to Romney while the more conservative voters who would support Palin shift their support to a variety of candidates including Michelle Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, and Tim Pawlenty.

The big loser from a Perry candidacy? Bachmann.

In a race without Perry, Bachmann polls at 16-17% to Romney’s 23%. With Perry in the mix, her percentage drops to 13%, while Perry claims 18% of the total.

Perry to Travel to Key Campaign States

Our friends at the Texas Tribune have recently updated their PerryTracker, which is a one-stop shop for information on the Governor’s travels outside the state as well as appearance within Texas before ‘national audiences.”

Between now and early November (which is as far into the future as the PerryTracker goes), the Governor has visits scheduled to New Hampshire, South Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida among other states.

These are important states for anyone campaigning for the presidency to visit. Of course, it is possible that Perry is just going in his capacity as head of the Republican Governors Association and a public figure growing in national prominence.