Events

Matthew Duveneck from PSU will present, "Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Declining Resistance and Resilience in the Northern Great Lakes Region."

When: Tuesday, October 15, 3-4pmWhere: Room 204, Urban Center

The most dramatic climate change effects to forests may be a decline in both resistance to chronic change and in resilience to acute disturbances such as fire. I assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and management alternatives of northern Great Lake forests using a simulation modeling approach. I simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting). I assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. I assessed resilience as the recovery of aboveground biomass and species composition following simulated fire. These results were promulgated via a collaborative framework – a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment organized by the US Forest Service - that integrated knowledge from local managers, experts, and scientists. Simulations of the high emission climate scenario resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. My results suggest that differences in management are largely outweighed by the effect of climate. Particularly innovative strategies will be required of management to maintain forest ecosystem services in the face of climate change.

The Forest Ecology and Management (FEM) seminar is a collaborative effort between Portland State University School of the Environment and the US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station. Our goal is to build connections among PSU, USFS, non-profits, timber management companies, etc.