Follow me on Twitter

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

My response to Udayan Mukherjee's post on Moneycontrol

Hi Udayan,

While I appreciate your intention of assuaging the feelings of the Indian Investors whose fingers have been badly burnt, I do not agree with the content of your post.

What 'mistake' did people who are long term investors make who were holding stocks with less than 10 PE or in some cases stocks with even less than 5 PE? You would be right in saying that those who were chasing overpriced and over-hyped stocks like RNRL, RPL, Ispat, Essar Oil, Reliance Energy etc. were overcome by their greed and that's why they had to pay for their 'sins'. It is completely understandable if you were admonishing people who were in such stocks for their 'mistake'.

But what mistake did a person who was holding a JK LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD., for example, make?

*That stock was trading at a PE of 3.7 at the price of 172 just one week ago. It was available at 109 today and the PE shrunk to 2.4!!

*The company has a confirmed annualized EPS of 47 for FY2007-2008.

*It has been posting spectacular results for the last six quarters in a row.

*Capacity enhancement from 3.5 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes on schedule.

The point I'm making here, dear Udayan, is that NOT EVERYBODY WHO WAS INVESTED IN THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET MADE A 'MISTAKE'. IT WAS A SYSTEMIC FAILURE. People were FORCED to sell even their good stocks by their brokers. Why did this forced selling take place? What exactly was wrong with the system of Margin Calls which led to this bloodbath?Instead of just writing off the Indian Investors' intelligence as a 'mistake', you should use your good offices to find out the REAL CULPRITS BEHIND THIS BLOODBATH. To me, this bloodbath reeks of a scam, which should be investigated.

Hi Paul,Aren't stocks like Reliance Engergy, Neyveli Lignite etc. commodity plays too? Yet, Reliance Energy was trading at a PE of 70 recently. What kind of dividend yields do they provide? GRASIM trades at a PE of 15 even after the market mayhem. India Cements trades at a PE of 10. Most peers of JK Lakshmi Cement trade anywhere between a PE of 10 and 15, while JK Lakshmi is today available at a PE of 2.4!!! Surely, it deserves a PE rating of 9-10 too. You can calculate what that means for the price targets if it is given a fair PE rating of 10, which it very much deserves.

Irrespective of govt. intervention in pricing, wouldn't you agree that the future for cement companies is very bright in India due to the amount of Investment scheduled to happen in building Infrastructure in the country. Surely, highways, bridges, housing development etc. cannot happen without Cement. India is going to see massive infrastructure development in the coming years and for all that, you need CEMENT.

The information that they have replaced high cost debt of Rs.325 crores was published alongwith their latest results in all the leading newspapers. You can visit their website www.jklakshmicement.com for more information on the company.

Whether you want to buy it or not is your personal decision. My opinion is that IT IS ONE OF THE BEST BUYS AVAILABLE IN THE MARKET FOR A SOUND LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

But We need not to forget.. STOCK MARKET is very sensitive subject.. It is sensitive to day2day happenings & reacts accordingly.. while

fundamentals won't change day2day..

- Market won't run completly on fundamnetals... there will be always speculation... The person must have eyes to seperate BAD things from

good one.- Normal people don't get everything in terms of - What exactly going on? ... become victims.- There is a common sense.. few valuation was not realistics at 21000+ points. F&O segment became almost like gampling.- When things get worst.. it won't leave anything behind.. no one sees, fundamental (J K LAXMI is one of it..).- We were too much optimistic about Indian Economy (still depends on external factors) & On our calls (Biased - completely bullish).- No one were surprised, when sensex went from 5000 to 21000 in 4-5 years. Now everyone is.- What happened lately... no one even good analyst has not predicted.

I bought it at 168 as per your recommendation on saturday irrespective of my broker warning me selling my shares of InfosysTch...now I got slaughtered in 3 days where Infy fell only 10%....feeling really bad. Will hold it for long term anyway but I dont think it can come back to 170 levels before 3-4 mnths :(

Dear Navin Bhai,I need your suggession in two areas.1> Shall I put a stop Payment on RelPower IPO Chq?2> After one month I need some huge amount for some family maters.In this sudden crash there is sudden loss for me also. Can I expect a good recovery through JK Laxmi cement within march 1st Wk? Or is there any short term suggession?I am not saying that you are GOD. Still I know logically How much strong you are. So give me your advise. Rest will be luck.ThanksSom

Hi Somen,I hear from market sources that a lot of people are giving instructions to their bank to stop payment for Reliance Power IPO cheques. This is because while earlier it was expected that Rel Pow will list around 900 levels on listing day, now people are suggesting that it may open around 500-550 only. How perceptions change in a matter of days.

The recent crash in the markets should make the investors more careful for the future. My advice is to stay away from HIGH PE and OVER-HYPED FNO stocks. This is the time to buy good stocks for delivery. Stocks which present good value for your money like a JK LAKSHMI CEMENT, ALLAHBAD BANK to give a couple of examples.

I would like to know if you are still bullish on Cybermate, I mean when will good stocks start trading positively again?... Others like Godrej industries, Aurobindho Pharma etc, I am not a trader and just a investor in mainly stocks suggested by you

I have purchase JP Hydro 1000sh @ 130 and now it is around 75 , please help me and let me know the fundamentals of this company. Is it worth holding JP hydro for around 1 to 2 yrs will my price of 130 ever come again . please comment if i want to book loss at what price should i exit - thanks

Thanks Navin Bhai. And I am holding Cybermat. If you think to come off or if any negative promoter games happen plz inform us. One thing is very true that you have said.Retail investors cant get proper info on inside games. So retail investors should avoid hypes.

The market conditions are still uncertain, so I had advised a Stop Loss of 14 on Cybermate. Almost every stock has gone down 60-70% from their peaks so everybody is in a loss. Now I can comment on Cybermate only after seeing results. Atul, JP Hydro is fairly/fully valued at current price according to me. You bought at a very high price. After the gigantic fall in the market, nobody can tell you when or if you will see those high prices again.

I repeat, the best course of action right now is to BUILD A LONG TERM PORTFOLIO OF GOOD VALUE STOCKS for delivery. You indulge in leveraged and FNO trading at your own risk.

Hi Navin,I accumulated Cybermate ..Now you are saying it will depend on the results. Does that mean it can end up even lower.Also despite the mkt correction both JK Lakshmi Cement and Unichem havent shown much improvement. When do you see these stocks to go up..

Today I bought 500 shares of Cybermate Infotek at 12.88 - company is making a profit of 3 crore and downside is limited (max loss for me is 6000 ). My target sell for this stock is 50 bucks if I hold for 1 year or 125 bucks if I hold for 2 years (factoring in compound interest).

Do you think company is fundamentally good? How about Aurobindo Pharma ? I've burnt my hands already by buying it at 500+ (did some more purchase today at 310 to bring the average cost down to 459/-)

Could you please give me your views on above two companies for a one year time period?

Hi regenade,Are you talking about JK Lakshmi? If yes, then don't worry about that stock. You can buy more at current levels. You will make handsome profits if you are patient.

Hi Subrata,You bought SA Petro at a very high price. I had recommended it at a price of around 24. Still, I think if you hold it for long term, you will not only recover your cost, but can also make profits in it.

Hi Tapasvi,You are right that there is not much downside left in both your stocks from current levels. If you hold them with a one year view, you will surely see profits.

For Everybody:Today we saw a recovery in the stock markets on the back of the 75 bps rate cut by the US Fed. But one must keep in mind that the market is always led by the Index stocks both on the way down and on the way up. First the Large caps will recover, then the mid-caps and last will be the turn of the small caps. This has been the sequence of things historically.

Dear SuperstarAs per your advice, I am accumulating JK lakhsmi and its taking an upward move already...thanks a lot!In the meantime,NSEMUMBAIBULL suggest the following:-1. West Coast Paper Mills Ltd2. Fiem Industries Ltd3. Berger Paints (India) Ltd4. Alps Industries Ltd5. Elgi Equipments Ltd can you give some inputs for the same? or is their any other you may want to suggest?with you all the way!!!Jonathan

Is it advisable to book losses in cybermate and re-enter at lower levels ? Any news about QIII results. I have brought it around 16.50 worth Rs.1.00 lac and it is going down daily although I can hold it for 3 months.

Hi Somen,You cannot give a MKT order when a stock is on circuit, either upper or lower.You have to give a LIMIT rate order for your order to be accepted.

Hi Manoj,Because of the unforeseen huge crash in the whole market, every stock is down. Cybermate is no exception. It is for such unpredictable circumstances that a Stop Loss of 14 was given for it. But if you haven't sold it yet then it doesn't make much sense to sell it at such low levels. It is better to wait till the results now. I had explained here yesterday also that according to my experience, after such huge crashes in the market, it is always the Large Caps which will recover first. Then comes the turn of Mid Caps. And Small Caps are the last to recover usually. So there is nothing much you can do except keep patience in the small caps for the time being.

PE ratio is Price to Earnings ratio. When you are deciding about which stock to buy, you should know what kind of earnings to expect for the price you are paying. Google to search for more information. I had given some tips from my side about how to choose a good stock in one of my blogs titled 'Guest Tips Here'. Read that. You can find it by clicking on the link OLDER POSTS from the main page of this site.

Hi Regenade,

I would convert GTL Infra and Ashok Leyland into JK Lakshmi.

Hi Experimentor,Welcome to the site. You can go for good value stocks like JK Lakshmi Cement and Allahbad Bank. They'll give you good gains in the medium to long term.

hi, superstar i wanted to know abt the future of few stocks.which r on a LC for more than a weak. blue chip india lloyd finance ikf technologies vishal exports i m facing losses in all these stocks including cybermate infotek but as many people r talking too much abt cybermat so i have confidence on it even a bit conf. on ikf tech too but i want ur recomendation on rest three stocks specially vishal exports which i bought at rs. 6.15 i have seen ur advices they are fantastic, so pleese give me also advice on these stocks whether i should exit or hold them patiently for few months. thanks.

You have said very rightly about Udayan Mukherjee. Sometimes he becomes so unexpected that sometimes it seems he is saying something in influence of somebody. He will just use his position to say things and it becomes nightmare for investors of that stock.

Anyways, I have been seeing your posts for multibaggers and liked them too especially Jayaswal Neco and Cybermate Infotek. Though I am in some losses right now in Cybermate but I will average it out when freeze gets open up. I am also a long term investor and a beliver of multibaggers and they come out only when the stock is already undervalued and it has good business and outlook in pipeline. So I have also become fan of yours as it matches my thinking too. :-) I had been looking for a place where i can suggest you few stocks which you can analyse on these grounds and you may would like to recommend them if you feel potential in them, but I couldn't find a place on your site. Please let me know if there is any provision or You can write to me at kamalranjan@yahoo.com and i can suggest you the same. Looking forward to talk to you. You can also chat with me on yahoo on the same id if you feel it fine.

Hi Vivek,Out of the list of your stocks, I find only Cybermate and IKF Tech worth holding. Rest are all trash stocks which you should never have even touched with a barged pole. Get out of them and buy some good quality stock with that money like JK Lakshmi Cement or other similar good value stocks.

Hi Azziiit,Forget Gufic for the time being. If you want to invest in the Pharma space, then why not invest in blue chip stocks like Aurobindo Pharma, Unichem Labs etc. which are available at dirt cheap levels.

Hi Kamal Ranjan,Welcome to the site and thank you for your appreciation. There is definitely a space for visitors to post their tips and queries. See the topic GUEST TIPS HERE : Part II. It is meant for this purpose only.

Hi Vikas,KEC Infra's fundamentals do not justify its current price. Sell it immediately and enter some good quality stock in its place.

Hi Vap75,Whether you should sell Reliance Power on listing day or whether you should hold for 2 months would depend on the price it opens at. If it opens near 900 then I would certainly book my profit immediately. But if it opens around 500-550 then probably one should hold for a better price to sell at.

Hi Specialist,Your list of stocks is tooooo long for me to comment on them individually. I have often requested people to restrict their queries to a MAXIMUM of TWO STOCKS at a time. Around 60% of your stocks merit an Immediate SELL. Only the rest 40% can be held for long term, say for example Gremach. This is a time to get out of penny stocks and stocks which went up only on rumors. Sell them and enter GOOD VALUE stocks like JK Lakshmi Cement, for example.

Good on you for taking on this Udayan.He is getting too big for his boots and sounding like a al knowing guru.In reality he is just a small,over paid boy singing,"na na na Boo boo, I told u so,I told u so."i lost over 35 lacs of unbooked profit and most of it in solid companies.What was my fault?

Hi Superstar,I hold RNRL,Teledata,Reliance Energy,JK Lakshmi,Mangalam cement,Avon Organics and Punj LLoyd in my PF.Before the crash I was 70% in gain and at one point I was down -4%.Now have recovered back to 10%.What do you suggest that I do in future.Change the scrips,book profits along the way or what...? Which way are we headed in the medium term?

Hi Sivaa,I would book my profits in Bank of Maharashtra and switch to some other bank, say like Allahabad Bank on dips.

Hi Cooknow,Sometimes it becomes a fault even to stay invested in the stock markets, like it happened last week. No matter what the quality of the stocks you were holding, you were badly hit. The big fish behind such scams are never caught.

You can exit RNRL, Reliance Energy around the time of Reliance Power listing. I never liked Punj Lloyd either and had advised a sell on it near its highs. It's way too over priced even now. I would get out of all these stocks even right now and put that money in JK Lakshmi Cement for long term.

Teledata is an enigma. Approx 4 years ago it fell from the highs of 60-65 levels to below 10. Then one year ago, it rose back to levels of 90. Then the management reduced the face value of the stock and announced demerger. After relisting last week at 90, it fell to 25 within a week.

Bottomline is, that company has a rogue management which cannot be trusted. When you buy Teledata, it's like playing the Russian Roulette. I have no clue whether that stock will make you a crorepati or a roadpati in one year. According to me, not worth the risk.

Hi Real,I had advised a sell on IFCI immediately after the Sterlite bid was rejected by the management. IFCI is a stock at the mercy of the moves of the management. I don't know when or whether that stock will move up. If you want to sleep well, switch to JK Lakshmi without hesitation.

Hi superstra,You really spend so much of your time answering everyone's queries...that is admirable.At the moment I feel very dejected ,like a million other investors,because I did everything right and still lost.I will add more JK Lakshmi as you advised and try and get out of many shares I hold,around Rel Power listing.We definitely need a small miracle to keep us sinking furhter into this mess.Thanks and cheers

Dear Superstar, I have purchased Artson ENgg 2000sh @ 110 and now it fell around 62 , I bought this stock because Tata is the major stake,please help me and let me know the fundamentals of this company.

Hold Godrej Ind. You've bought it at a good price.I had advised a Sell on GMR Infra at 250 when every analyst on TV was giving a buy on it. My opinion has not changed. You'd be better off buying JK Lakshmi Cement instead of GMR Infra.

Hi Nirakar,I feel nostalgic about Adlabs when I remember that a few years ago I had given a long term buy call on it when it was only 100. Anil Ambani picked up stake in it just a few months after my buy call. However, at present price it is a HOLD. For fresh buying there are better value stocks available in the market.

Hi Manoj,I had given a Stop Loss of 14 for Cybermate Info well in time. That should have been seriously followed. However, now one should wait to see the Dec qtr results for taking any further decision. The results are expected on 31st Jan.

Hi Ariff,You bought Artson at a very high price. The December qtr results have been disappointing. But since it has fallen a lot you may wait for a bounce to exit. Hold with a Stop Loss of 61.

There is a lot of discussion on cybermate etc, but almost nothing on jayaswal neco. I had started accumulating when the post had gone up so I was not far from the recommended price and my average price is now 77 whereas it is trading at 55. Whats your take from here onwards?

Hi Abhishek,I would suggest you to double check your facts before posting here. Jayaswal Neco was first recommended by me at around 30 levels and that was when the post was first put up. When it achieved my first target of 82, profit booking was advised. There are some fears in the international market of metal prices coming down, which is why you are seeing a current weakness in the metal stocks.

Abhishek, there is nothing wrong with Jayaswal Neco specifically. It is only taking its cues from the rest of the market. The whole market is jittery right now and is far from stable. Jayaswal is at a crucial technical level. It may rebound from here or may go further down. If you can hold for one year or more, then you can hold. If you are a very short term trader, then you can keep a stop loss of 51 in it.

For fresh long term investment with relatively low risk, I am advising a buy on JK Lakshmi Cement.

Jayaswal Neco has reported a Q3/07 PAT of Rs.126 million (EPS of 1.05), up by a whopping 143% yoy. Q3 is generally a weak quarter for auto-ancillaries companies, while Q4 is the one to look for.

For Bharat Forge (Jayaswal's peer), ICICI has come out with a research report, giving a 40% upside to the stock. At present it's trading at 19x FY08E earnings and 14x FY09E earnings, which are considered cheap by ICICI.

If we expect Jayaswal's EPS of 5-6 for 2008 and 9-10 for 2009, this stock should trade at Rs. 95-114, and Rs. 126-140 respectively.

I have started reading this blog very recently. I was impressed with the quality of the content. I have a question for Aurobindo Pharma. I have bought it around Rs. 450. What should I do now as it it below Rs. 400. I can wait for more than a year if needed. I have bought 3i Infortech for Rs. 142. Advice on that also

Dear Navin bhai,Please keep us guided on South Asia Petro Ltd. (as you had done with Gufic Bio previously) as SAPL kept moving up UC continiously and again LC continiously which smells operators playing with this script. If you find anything dangerous please alert/guide us as what we should do whenever you smell these operators playing with SAPL.Thanks & Regards,

Hi Experimentor,Hotel Leela can be bought if it falls another 10% from here with a long term view.Ruchi Soya is a buy for long term.Marico is fairly valued at cmp. I wouldn't advise fresh buying as there are better buys in the market.

Hi Shashank,Zee News doesn't excite me much at current levels. I think its still overvalued. I won't buy it.Com Dis one can start buying in parts.

Hi Abhishek,Hotel Leela : answered above.Fortis has no earnings to show for its price. I will avoid it.Cybermate: Next trigger is the Dec qtr results. One should take a call after seeing the results on 31st Jan.

Hi Murugan,You have bought Aurobindo at a decent price. You could have averaged your cost further down in the mayhem of last week. Hold for a year for making decent profits.You can hold 3iInfo with a stop loss of 120 to exit when your cost price is recovered.

Hi Subrata,SA Petro doesn't have much down side left from here. It is behaving in sync with most other low priced stocks. Although the Dec qtr results have been disappointing, one can hold it for long term with a Stop Loss of 19.50 for short term traders.

hi superstar..I have been quite ipressed with all ur blogs n reccoes but i do find a problem in the methodology of some reccoes..wheh u reccoed cybermate with hefty targets then shouldn't it be a buy at CMP regardless of the Dec qtr results given its projection of a tall target for 2008..why should it all of a sudden because of the downtrend in market be relegated to "buy after Dec qtr results "..just a thought ..would appreciate ur views..regards and kudos for a wonderful service..deepak

Hi Destiny4u,Good question. The best thing about the Stock Markets is that they are so Unpredictable and things change. We are going through a period of uncertainty in the short term. The huge crash of last week has changed the equation for low priced stocks including Cybermate Info, in the short run.Why? You ask.

This is why. The unprecedented crash of last week saw some large & mid cap, good quality stocks lose as much as 50-60% of their value in two days. Yep. In just TWO DAYS!

If you had noticed, the small caps had started running only from the month of December approx. when most of the large and mid caps prices had reached a saturation point. The market was searching for value and they found it in the erstwhile neglected small caps. In the process of looking for value in small caps it so happened that along with the really good value small cap stocks like Cybermate, certain cats and dogs with no value also started to move in upper circuits. Stocks which did not deserve to go up also started to move up just because their price was below 20 rupees. Markets cannot behave in this absurd fashion for long, so the cookie had to crumble. Markets always make excesses both on the way up and on the way down. It is the nature of the markets. So just like cats and dogs were moving up along with the good stocks in the bull rally, good stocks got butchered along with the overpriced, over-hyped stocks when the markets got mauled by the bears.

So, now the situation is that when many of the large and mid cap stocks are available at throwaway prices, who has the time to look at small caps with good value? That's why it makes sense to play absolutely safe now. That's why I would rather wait for the results to come to see if there are any nasty surprises there. You can have a different strategy than mine and go ahead to buy it even now, after all it has corrected a lot from its peak. Maybe it will pay off for you. But I would like to play safe now.

Hi Pints,Allied digital seems to be a good stock. It has posted strong earnings. But it is not exactly cheap trading at a PE more than that of Infosys and TCS. If it continues the pace of its growth, it can be bought for the long term.

I have Jayas Neco, Cybermate and JK Lakshmi cement from your recomended list. I am holding these stocks for 1 year even if the market is volatile for a couple of months.I also have following shares.Can you please provide your views onRashtriya Chemical FertilizersHind MotorsGeojit Financial and Securities.

RCF and HM have some land sale story and Geojit has offer from BNP for 51% stake.

Hi Navin,I agree with the explanation given by you for cybermate..What are your expectations from the results for cybermate.There must be some parameters based on which you might have valued the stock like the expected EPS which again cannot be pure guess work. Since for historic growth we dont have much figures what was the basis of expecting a good growth..Is it the sound management or what..Pls try an clarify my doubts sir.I agree based on previous results the PE and EPS look good and it looks undervalued but I feel there should be some basis of getting to the expected EPS.RegardsShashank

Hi Shashjpn,Although Nelco has shown an improvement in the top line this qtr, it is still posting losses. There are better buys available in the market. Avoid.I had recommended Oswal Chemicals (Bindal agro) around 34-36 levels some months back, after which it had run to 80 plus levels. It has also fallen along with the rest of the market now. It can be picked up if it falls 10-20% from current levels.

Hi Alex,I would stay away from fertilizer stocks at the moment, including RCF. They had run far ahead of their fundamentals.I wouldn't touch Hind Motors either. Geojit can be bought in parts on further dips.

Hi Vishal,FNO trading is always risky business and I don't advise small investors to dabble in it. Mundra Port is a good stock which may go to 1000 levels whenever the market conditions are good. But you can book your profit currently also and switch to JK Lakshmi Cement if you have a long term view (one year).

Dear Navin, I came across your blog about an hour back and boy! it is mind bogglin!How I wished Ihad come across it earlier.I hv picked up cyber at 18+ and and picked up another 5000today to average it to 14. I hv 5000 IFCI bought at 12.5.Is it worth wating for it to get back to 70-80 levels.Keep up the good work and God bless.Regards,Ravi

Dear Navin, Your blog is very informative and instructive for stock market green horners like me.How I wish Ihad come across your blog earlier. I had picked up cyber at 18+ on ur reco and has averaged it to 14 as on today. I do hv ifci-11,mtnl-164,ashok ley-40 shd I knock any of these and get more of jkl.Regards,Ravi

Hi Abhishek,Both Jasc and Pearl eng belong to the low priced shares category which got butchered in the recent crash. I had advised a sell on both earlier on this site. Jasc is better than Pearl.

Hi Chandy,Thanks for your appreciation. Book your profits in IFCI and invest that money in JK Lakshmi Cement. Even MTNL and Ashok Leyland can be converted to JKL.

Hi Tapasvi,According to me Jaiprakash Assoc is an over-hyped, overpriced stock at present levels. I will not buy it at cmp. Incidently, approx 4-5 years ago, I had given a buy on it when it was trading in the 20s. (pre-split, pre-demerger).

Hyderabad based Bartronics India, a smart card solutions provider, announced that it has acquired two companies in the U.S. - Proximities and SRG - for a sum of $50 million. Proximities, develops and markets radio frequency identification (RFID) tags and SRG, an IT solution provider.

With this acquisition Bartronics has entered the U.S. market. The acquisition will bring in an extra Rs 100 crore revenues in the year 2008-09 for the company. It also plans for acquisitions in European and Middle East markets next year.

"We have acquired the assets of Proximities and will get the rights for the company's five approved patents and its related products. Proximities has also filed for 20 more patents and another 122 are in the pipeline. While the company will continue to remain as a separate legal entity, we will gain control over its technology assets," said Sudhir Rao, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer of Bartronics India.

Guys,I was lucky to buy this script at 190 when the market fell. I believe this is a very good and long term investment. Since I am from the IT field and have experience in security applications, I can tell you that this Co. is way up there in the Indian tech companies list. Very professional (you can make out from their website) and great plans of expansion. The space itself that they are in (smart card, barcoding, biometrics) is one of the fasted growing in the world let alone in India.

Superstar, I would appreciate if you can do some (your type) of research on this co. and give us ur findings. My acumen is not as sharp as urs even though I understand this tech space pretty well.

The CMP is 244 and the 52 wk high for this script is 291 which dipped to 182 during the mayhem. A year back it was at 96. Their last 3 yr revenues are 18, 29 and 63 (in crores)and this year uptil Dec 08 they have already clocked 108.95 cr. The new acquisitions should bring in another 100 cr revenue going forward.

In summary - revenues are good, profit margins are decent (they will only improve from here on considering the type of business they are in), business has huge demand especially with retail opening up in India (barcoding & RFID) and security becoming a necessity (biometrics, smart cards). However the PE is 31.5 and only superstar can take a call on the current valuations (which I am still far from learning)

Hi Sumit,You are being modest when you say that I'd be able to throw more light on Bartronics than you. :) You are an IT professional, and you'd understand their business more than me. I can only comment on the stock. The company is very good and in a high growth business. But despite that, at present PE of 30, I think it is fairly valued for the next six months or so. Long term investors can buy on dips.

Hi Vivek,ICSA is a fast growing company and if past performance is any indicator then it is a good buy on dips for long term investors.

Hi AK,I have repeatedly requested here that people should ask a MAXIMUM OF TWO Stocks at a time. The list you've given is too long for me to answer individually on each stock. But off the cuff, I can comment that the majority of your portfolio, barring an odd JK Lakshmi Cement, consists of media-hyped/brokers promoted momentum stocks. And on majority of these stocks I had given a SELL advice. You've seen how they've fared in the recent crash yourself.

Hi Ariff,Allied comp is a new listing and no data is available for it financial history. I cannot comment on it.

Hi Shashank,This is not the first time they have picked up some of my tips. Some time back they put a buy on Alps Industries at a price of 83 (credited to SP Tulsian) after I had given a Buy recommendation on it at 47 levels. Only difference is that here you are getting the tips for free and at Moneycontrol's Powerurtrade site you have to pay for these tips.

I am sure that JK Lakshmi Cement will now receive wider publicity and will gallop from here. BUY AND ACCUMULATE.

Hi Superstar, With Rel Pow refund around 1000 bn Rs back, if we assume atleast half of the money flowing back to the stock market, i assume think there will be a big raise in market in near future. Wats ur view on it :( ?

Hi Destiny4u,The results of Cybermate Infotek are out. And they are good. Net Profit has increased from 2.15cr in Dec qtr 2006 to 4.97cr this year. Nine months EPS has increased from 2.8 to 3.46 (Pre tax).

The company has posted good results three quarters in a row. One can hold this stock and can also buy more if at all there are any dips.

Hi Ariff,Of course, the return of the IPO refunds of Reliance Power will have a positive effect on the market. About Artson, here is the news: Artson Engineering Ltd has informed BSE that February 08, 2008 has been fixed as the Record Date for the purpose of determining the right to entitlement of Equity Shares after reduction of paid-up value of shares from Rs 10/- each to Re 1/- each. This is the reason the scrip has been suspended for the time being.

Hi Vivek,Yes, you can purchase more of JK Lakshmi Cement at current levels. The stock will soon come in the limelight.

Dear Superstar, As you mentioned that artson engg's face value has been reduced from 10 to 1 and thats why its suspended for time being. If the face value is being reduced will they give 10 times more shares. for ex if i have 100 shares in artson will it come to 1000 with the price revised from 67.6 to 6.7. Please explain about this reduction in face value

Hi SuperStar***,I am really following ur advice and having lot of faith in ur analysis. i am holding 5000 Cybermate @ 15.82 . Can you tell me the future of this stock since the results are out and looks good to me!!

Hi Bidhan,I have advised to sell Ispat many times earlier. Pls see my older comments. There are many better stocks in the market.

Hi Vivek,I had advised a buy on Alps at 47. You bought it rather late at 82. One can buy around 55 for long term depending upon overall market conditions.

Hi Pradeep.

Hi Vap75,Both Cybermate Info and JK Lakshmi Cement are holds at current prices. But JK Lakshmi Cement is a much bigger company than Cybermate and at current levels one can add JK Lakshmi for long term. It is available at very attractive levels at present.

Hi Subrata,As you yourself said, it is multi million dollar question...so will you give me multi millions if my answer is correct? ;)Today, the markets are very much intertwined with the global markets and if the US sneezes the whole world markets catch a cold. That said, there is no denying the inherent strength of the Indian markets which have a strong support of a fast growing economy. Whether the Nifty can re-test 4500? Yes, it can. The important level to watch on the downside now is 4800, only if that is broken we can see 4500. But even if that happens, I wouldn't be worried because I know that it will be a great opportunity to pick up good stocks at low levels. I don't buy the index, I buy individual stocks.

Hi Prakash,The results posted by Cybermate are good and one can hold this stock. I'm sure you'll see profits in it once the overall market conditions become more supportive. JK Lakshmi is a much bigger and safe stock to buy at current price. It is a definite buy and accumulate for long term.

Dear Superstar,Now markets are on road to recovery and results of cybermate are also fabulous .Whats your say on cybermate infotek. And in this market scenario according to you which scrip gives good returns in ST. Plz your valuable suggestion and recommendation is highly appreciable.

Hi Ritu,Unichem Labs is certainly a hold. You can buy more at cmp to bring down your avg cost price.

Hi Ariff,Transformers & Recti is a new listing. Not enough historic data is available on it. I think it is fairly valued at cmp. You can hold if you are prepared to hold for long term, but in the short term, I would switch to some better stock.

Hi Suni Mos,I do not like to repeat myself. I have commented on Cybermate in my last post also after the results. Pls read it. In the present scenario I am recommending a buy on JK Lakshmi cement.

hi navin,my question on bhagyanagar and fdc was that can i buy at this levels.i all ready have these stocks in my port folio,do these stocks have any upside left in them.are these stocks good for portfolio

Hi again, Shekhar,You may buy those two stocks if you like for a short term upside, but for long term investments there are many better buys available in the market like JK Lakshmi Cement to name one. You've also asked about PE ratios and stuff, it is better to look at PEG and the quality of management also.

I am currently looking for GMDC(gujrat MInerals). Is it good considering its current price of 400 & that 1:1 bonus issue.Its Q3 profits are more than its annual profit of last year :O....any advise on it :)

He Regenade,GMDC is a good company and a good stock to hold for long term.

Hi Abhishek (Jain),You know, not just two Abhisheks, I was surprised to see another Superstar also here! LOL. I think Jayaswal may settle some where around 60 levels in the short term after the consolidation phase is over. So, if you have a slightly longer term view JK Lakshmi Cement may be a better buy at current levels.

Hi Sandy,Apart from JK Lakshmi Cement, I had given a list of potential winners for this year in a blog some time ago. Till now, three of my stocks have already been picked up by other analysts after my reco. Ashish Chugh has also put multibagger ratings on JK Lakshmi Cement and Shakti Metdor. SP Tulsian had put a buy on Alps Industries after I had recommended it. You can have these three stocks in your portfolio at current prices, for a one year perspective. More winners will emerge from the list I gave earlier.

I learnt about bright prospects of J K Lakshmi from you when it was trading at aroundn 123 something. Unfortunately it took me some time to arrange for investment capital. Finally I was able buy 100 shares of JK Lakshmi today at the price of 140.50 (excluding brokerage). Do you think its a good price to buy at and I've not made a mistake?

Also, How do you rate SYBLY INDS LTD ? I've 150 stocks of Sybly at a price of 11.04 - is it worth a hold ?

Hi Superstar,I had purchased 100 Unichem labs @ 213. At the current price is it a hold or shall I book loss and enter some other stock like JK Lakshmi cement. I can hold Unichem and as well buy JK Lakshmi also.

Hi Tapasvi,You will not regret your decision of buying JK Lakshmi Cement if you hold it for long term. You have made a good investment and can buy more at cmp if you like. Sell Sybly and buy more JKL.

Hi Madhu,If you hold it then you can hold it with a Stop Loss of 189. For fresh buying many better stocks are available.

Hi Rami, If you hold Unichem, you'll certainly recover your cost price in the medium term. For fresh buying you can buy JKL.

Hi Hellraiser,I had recommended HFCL privately to a couple of friends around 20 after which it had a great run till 60. The fall has been equally sharp due to the disappointment of spectrum allocation and non-inclusion in FNO. This is a momentum stock which can cut both ways. You can make money in this stock only if you are a very nimble trader. It cannot be recommended as a sound investment because of its foggy future.

Hi Devang,Textile sector is a beaten down sector and a sector which does not have much hope in the near future, other than govt. dole outs. The downfall of the dollar is a major culprit. I had last advised an exit from Gupta Synth around 75 levels. The latest results are not available on the exchange site so I cannot comment. Winsome Tex, you can hold if you can hold for the long term.

I am silent listner and follower of your multibaggers. i have all of them in my portfolio. i am a medium term invester and want to know about the following to scripts1. Shiva cement2. krishna lifestyle

Shiva cement has given an outstanding result in this quarter. Its 14+ as against 6+ during sep 2007. Also ACC wants to aquire it.Krishna lifestyle is woned by Tayal groups and its the news that they are going to open a chanin of retail malls all over India. its planning to open 50+ malls in comming three years.

Hi Hellraiser,The markets across the globe are currently very volatile and yet to stabilize. So you can stagger your purchase of JK Lakshmi in parts, if you are not comfortable buying in one go. But remember that this is not a trading pick but a long term investment pick. Jayaswal Neco may stabilize around 55-60 range for some time.

Hi Raj,I had advised a sell on Krishna around 6 levels last month on this site and today it is available at 2.79. I have no information about its future plans, but on present earnings, I would not buy it.Neither would I advise to buy Shiva cement, as there are much better cement companies available.

Hi Nagendra,I do not like to answer about more than two stocks at a time, because I cannot devote too much time here. If you hold SAPL for long term, you can make profits. Sunflag Iron, I had advised a buy to some clients around 13-14 levels after which it exceeded its targets. I wouldn't buy it at current levels.

Earlier also, i had posted a query for reliance natural (whether a sell or hold); to which you had replied a hold with stoploss at 200.But now with market scenario changed after the crash, what do you advise now? I am holding 170 RNRL at Rs. 90

thanx superstar for your quick response...One query about Cybermate,now almost every day it has huge volumes mostly built up due to buying and selling seen by 1. Sarfarazkhan Sarvarkhan Pathan2. JMP Securities i am confused to see SS Pathan trades huge quantities on intraday basis often at a loss....why does he do that...whats happening??

regd, cybermate infotek. The revenues and PAT for 9M ending Dec-07 has almost doubled but EPS has increased only by 23%. Last Quarter EPS is almost flat (1.63 vs 1.49 last yr). Is this equity dilution the reason for the stock not moving up? I would also like to know if you looked at this dilution when you did the analysis for this stock. Because i think looking only at growth in Sales and Net profit can be misleading sometimes.

I am a deversified investor and am looking to invest some amount in a stock other then JK laxhmi cement, which already is a good portion of my portfolio. Please recommend a stock that has become an attractive investment due to the current market downfall. Also need your comment on whether to contiunue holding Aurobindo pharma, where I have lost 45%. i am worried not because of the current fall, but because the Dec 07 result seem very poor for this company.

Hi Surbhi,When a stop loss of 200 for RNRL was given by me, you should have sold it at that price. Now it is at 150 odd. In uncertain times, stop losses should be strictly followed to protect your investment. It may go up 10-20% up from here where you should book profit and exit. So you can hold with a strict stop loss of 133 this time.

Hi Hellraiser,There are a couple of more brokerages trading in Cybermate apart from the two named by you. Maybe they could be having some kind of understanding with each other. These people are traders and they exit on very miniscule profits. There is no point in over-analyzing this stock because the entire market is reeling under selling pressure right now. Almost every stock in the market is down 45-55% from its peak. The sentiment is weak in the entire world and not just in India currently.

Hi Madhu,I had looked at the equity dilution and despite it the share looks good for appreciation. There is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of Cybermate and they look promising. It is just that the sentiment in the whole world is weak right now and share markets in the entire world are in a downtrend. Read my above reply to Hellraiser also.

Hi Gaurav,You can go to a thread titled POTENTIAL WINNERS of 2008 by clicking on the Older Posts and there are names of several stocks which have the potential to give good gains. You can pick some of the better companies from that list, on market dips. You can continue to hold JK Lakshmi Cement and Aurobindo Pharma for long term. The market will give them their fair valuation at some point of time and they can surely more than double from the current prices in the long term.

Hi Tapasvi,You mean GIPCL is having good support around 100 levels. This was a stock recommended by me on moneycontrol when it was in the 50s. It ran upto 185 recently. Power stocks ran up quite a lot due to the Reliance Power IPO. I don't think it is a buy at current level. If some one has not booked profits near the highs of 180 then one can use a 10-20% rally to exit the stock in the short term. Only if one is prepared to hold the stock for two years one can take entry in it now.

Deccan Aviation is a stock which went up crazily due to the merger with Kingfisher. It is still a loss making company. I would have exited from it and entered some good value stock like JK Lakshmi.

Hi Nagendra,I would have booked profits in both Aban and JPAssociates long time back. I have been advising a sell on JP Associates even before the crash. It is still not too late to book whatever profits are left. Exit and buy some good value stocks.

I have recently (Dec 2007) entered into the stock mkt after being gullible enuf to see the sensex rise....have lost a bit BUT no sweat as it gives a good adrenelin boost....there is always a cost to learning new things..that's how i look at it..

I saw ur comments on cybermate infotek and followed you here and i am amazed at your insight and great suggestions and such mature demeanor and great brains...

I have bot cybermate, allahbad bank, jk lakshmi, shri lakshmi cotsyn on ur reco and to my great delight they are holding well even at current levels...GR8 job dear..

I would request you to advise on other stocks that i hold...i further REQUEST you to forego your 2 stock rule just once,FOR ME(!!) to bring me upto speed with you and then wont bother you again with a request of this type.

I am sorry for the long ask, i guess 1 post is better than 10 posts bothering you....and hope it may help some of us too on this site

I have become a great fan of yours and though i have learnt a lot about fundas of a company BUT still lot needs to be learnt...its a great feeling when your stocks are validated by a professional and a chance to learn where you went wrong on rejection of your choice...

Another thing i do is look at your blog before the market open for any fresh ideas from you...

I have recently (Dec 2007) entered into the stock mkt after being gullible enuf to see the sensex rise....have lost a bit BUT no sweat as it gives a good adrenelin boost....there is always a cost to learning new things..that's how i look at it..

I saw ur comments on cybermate infotek and followed you here and i am amazed at your insight and great suggestions and such mature demeanor and great brains...

I have bot cybermate, allahbad bank, jk lakshmi, shri lakshmi cotsyn on ur reco and to my great delight they are holding well even at current levels...GR8 job dear..

I would request you to advise on other stocks that i hold...i further REQUEST you to forego your 2 stock rule just once,FOR ME(!!) to bring me upto speed with you and then wont bother you again with a request of this type.

I am sorry for the long ask, i guess 1 post is better than 10 posts bothering you....and hope it may help some of us too on this site

I have become a great fan of yours and though i have learnt a lot about fundas of a company BUT still lot needs to be learnt...its a great feeling when your stocks are validated by a professional and a chance to learn where you went wrong on rejection of your choice...

Another thing i do is look at your blog before the market open for any fresh ideas from you...

Hi Mahesh,If I was in your place, I would have shifted from L&T to JK Lakshmi completely. It presents much better value at cmp.

Hi Rakesh,Thanks for your kind words. You could hold on to most of your portfolio and consider switching from JP Assoc, Suzlon, Welspun Guj, IDFC, ICIC and Bharti Airtel. I would have switched from the above stocks into JK Lakshmi Cement at cmp.I would post my latest views on the market in a new blog soon.

great research by superstar, fundamentally very strong company only beaten by bad sentiments down risk very minimal up side is huge can touch 200 mark as soon as markets recovers. cut your losses on other low fundamental stock and invest in this. as the analysts are talking sensex level of 14000, 12000 or even more if it happens all the stock will drift down including this one, then we still bear more losses but if markets recovers this stocks will definetly has good upside. dont blame superstar or any one who earlier recommended stocks which are now down. bcos these people recommends without any personal profit. no one can guess future of market good job superstarkeep it upthanks for your efforts

About Me

Hi there!
Thanks for visiting my blogspot. I live in India but consider myself a World Citizen. I have varied interests ranging from the Stock Markets, Astrology to Acting/Writing in Movies. Hope we can share our views and interact with each other through this website.
Cheers!
Navin

My Astrology site

Disclaimer

All information posted on this web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Under no circumstances is this an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities discussed on this site. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. I have positions in some of the companies discussed. All data, information and opinions are subject to change without notice. (c) 2007 All Copyrights belong to Superstar