Del Mar Picks & Analysis — Saturday, November 18, 2017

The fall meet party continues this Saturday at Del Mar. This card features nine races, headlined by the Desi Arnaz Stakes, for two-year-olds.

We’ve got Robert Criscola (@itsgood2beking) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the action! Robert’s been our main California guy for a while now, and in addition to SoCal handicapping, does a trip notes column for the site every Tuesday! Be sure to check out his work.

Good luck, and take it away, Robert!

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We have another strong nine-race card to consider at Del Mar this Saturday, headlined by the Desi Arnaz Stakes for two-year-old fillies. This is a nice appetizer before Thanksgiving weekend, which will have stakes races galore. Let’s dig in!

Race 1: 2-3-4-11

#2 UNCLE BILLY was a close fifth in his turf debut last month, which came off a long layoff. He should benefit from the cutback and the Miller barn has been scorching-hot at the meet so far (32%). #3 SUNDAY PROPHET stopped when asked to go a mile in his second career start but was a strong second at this course and distance in his August debut. #4 LITTLE JUANITO, third with a wide trip in his turf bow, has made a habit of settling for minor awards (7-0-2-4 career record); must-use underneath. #11 MILHAUD fits with these on speed figures but must draw in off the AE list.

Race 2: 7-3-4

#7 RED CARPET CAT is certainly fast enough to take this based on his last two dirt figs and should find himself in a good stalking position; top preference. #3 THE CRITICAL WAY began his career 2-for-2 before hitting the shelf and finding his comeback spot much too difficult; this is a more realistic assignment. #4 BURN ME TWICE has been off since consecutive August romps over this course against lesser; respect.

Race 3: 3-1-6

#3 HELEN’S TIGER was a no-show from the rail post at Santa Anita last time but was a close fourth in a stake at Los Al and third in a similar spot here last summer; tepid pick in a weak race. #1 DIXIE LASSIE outran her odds in her dirt debut (3rd at 99-1) and sheds weight today; consider. #6 KISS OF DAHPESPE cost just $10k but is bred to be precocious and lures Roman.

Race 4: 8-1-3

#8 JERSEY’S HEAT drew the dreaded rail post going downhill in his turf debut but closed to be a respectable third. He’s bred to handle the added ground, so he gets the call. #1 HARDBOOT had moderate late interest in his unveiling but finished two lengths behind the top choice. He may improve with Lasix and blinkers added. #3 SMART KNOWS SMART transfers to the Miller barn and may take to the turf based on pedigree.

Race 5: 2-3-6

The Desi Arnaz Stakes

#2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR is the one to beat as she’s steadily improved from start to start and finally broke through the maiden ranks last time out. The added 1/16th should be no problem. #6 DREAM TREE and #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU were noses apart in the same maiden heat but DREAM TREE won the bob. Edge to the latter today at a potentially better price with Bejarano representing an upgrade in the saddle.

Race 6: 3-1-6

#3 PAINTING CORNERS wheels back quickly after finishing a troubled fourth last week (http://www.danonymousracing.com/trip-notes-robert-criscola-tuesday-november-14-2017/) and sheds weight with Roman; the pick. #1 LAJATICO misfired in his last try here but is freshened up and has back class to boast. #6 LITTLE VOICE was a solid third in a similar spot here last year but has run two straight duds at Santa Anita, perhaps not caring for the downhill course; watch the board.

Race 7: 4-8-3-1

#4 PARTY HOSTESS lost by just a head despite dueling throughout in similar conditions last time; should atone. #8 PRINCESS DORIAN, a half-length behind the top pick in the same last-out heat, has run just one bad race in her five-start career but it came at Del Mar. #3 RECKLESS CHARM and #1 DEMIGODDESS will be rolling late for minor spoils.

Race 8: 9-8-3

#9 HARBOUR MASTER drops in class after running second in a non-graded stake on opening day. He’s been close on a couple of occasions in spots like this but may finally break through. #8 HOOTIE gets a rider upgrade to Prat off back-to-back thirds at similar levels; respect. #3 FLY TO MARS was a convincing winner in his preliminary turf try, albeit vs. softer.

Race 9: 1-8-6-3-7

#1 BRADDOCK outgamed ML favorite #8 MAKE IT A TRIPLE when they met at Santa Anita on Oct. 14; quite possible that result repeats itself in the nightcap. MAKE IT A TRIPLE might be dressed up after controlling a sensible pace in victory last time out but can’t be excluded based on speed figures. #6 MY MAN CHUCKLES has decent dirt form to run back to as he tries a new low. #3 GENTRIFIED and #7 LINDANTE should be involved late.

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