INSIGHT – Iranian/HZ activity in LATAM

PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source monitors Iranian and HZ activity in LATAM
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
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IRGC and Hizbullah are increasing their activity in Nicaragua. About 20
IRGC men have recently arrived into the Iranian embassy in Managua. They
have been admitted into Nicaragua without travel documents. IRGC/HZ
activity in Nicaragua resembles HZ activity in Argentina prior to the
attack on the Israeli embassy and Jewish center in Buenos Aires.
Iranian intrusion into Central America is more alarming than elsewhere in
Latin America thanks to the former’s proximity to the USA. The US has
reasons to be concerned about possible attempts by Iranian agents to
sabotage Mexico’s huge petroleum and gas infrastructure in the event of a
US military attack against Iran. The Iranians are not wasting time drawing
contingency plans to deter the USA from considering military action
against the Islamic Republic.
Iran, contrary to what some may think, does not want to establish itself
as a power in the Western Hemisphere and compete with the USA there. Iran
simply wants to harass Washington there. Iran has given up on its efforts
to establish itself as an economic partner in the area. All Iran wants it
to secure reception facilities for HZ and the IRGC personnel and promote
narcotics trade there to aid the financially beleaguered HZ. Iranian
ambassador in Managua Akbar Esmaeil Pour performs essentially security
functions for the sole purpose of spying on Mexico and reminding the
Americans that they are very close to their back door. Apart from that,
the Iranians have little interest in this country, which they consider
inhospitable.
COMMENT: It might be possible to draw an analogy between Iranian incursion
into Latin America and the former Soviet Union’s penetration of the Middle
East during the 1950s-60s. The Soviets knew very well that the ME was an
area of Western influence and never wanted to control it; just to harass
the USA. Iran appears to be doing the same in Latin America; its financial
problems are not making it easy for Tehran to secure its security presence
there.