One of the key elements in the recent success of the Edmonton Oilers at the draft table: reducing risk.

IMMINENT DANGER

Back in the olden days, the Edmonton Oilers treated the first round like a crapshoot. Jesse Niinimaki was taken in the middle of round one despite being ranked #50 on the European list (making him a probable 4th rder). After the draft, we were told that the organization had heard New Jersey planned to take him so they were forced into the selection. A cynic might suggest that a team like NJD (run by honest Lou) might make up stuff and leak the rumor in hopes that someone bought it.

The problem with this kind of thing is that if your reach pick (that's what I call them, reach picks) falls down the stairs or hurts his arm or finds women, God, liquor or ganja then you're s.o.l. I believe Kevin Prendergast lost his job because of Niinimaki, the Pouliot/Jacques 2003 draft and the Alex Plante 2007 selection. All of them had their careers impacted by injury. Doesn't matter. It's on the scouting team and their leader (KP) is no longer employed as a scouting director.

GETTIN' IT?

The Oilers made some changes during the latter portion of last decade, and one of those changes involved elevating Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor to the position of scouting director. MacGregor has been in the position for the last three drafts and this weekend will be number four.

MBS is risk averse. His selections of Taylor Hall, Magnum PS and Jordan Eberle were all in the range of expectation, and he's rarely gone outside the norm during the first 75 picks (Abney, Hesketh being examples). His 2010 second round is already being compared to KP's 2002 (Stoll, Greene and JDD) after the club plucked Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin and Curtis Hamilton in the second round a year ago.

A list like Bob McKenzie's is a very valuable tool for the organization that can get past it's own ego and recognize that these are in fact the consensus best player's available. In fact, if a player is rated highly and your scouts are telling you to stay away, wouldn't you like a very good reason for it? Wouldn't you hope that scout had a really good reason?

You could take Bob McKenzie's top 60 to the draft, follow it exactly and come out on top of some teams on draft weekend. Scouting can help, but it can also hinder. What if you "saw him good" on the way day he was "beyond his best?" Should one of your scouts get stubborn on a fellow (say, Kenta Nilsson on Alexei Mikhnov) then you end up with a Traktor boy instead of an NHL player.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Here is Bob McKenzie's top 60 list. I'd guess that Oilers picks 1, 19, 31 and maybe 61 could be on that list, and there are probably a couple more Edmonton selections on the NHL combine invite list.

NORTH AMERICAN SKATERS

NAME

TEAM

LEAGUE

POS.

HT

WT

Seth Ambroz

Omaha

USHL

RW

6-foot-2

211

Olivier Archambault

Val d'Or

QMJHL

LW

5-foot-11

170

Sven Baertschi

Portland

WHL

LW

5-foot-10

181

Nathan Beaulieu

Saint John

QMJHL

D

6-foot-2

174

Myles Bell

Regina

WHL

D

6-foot

214

Tyler Biggs

USA U-18

USHL

RW

6-foot-2

210

Austen Brassard

Belleville

OHL

RW

6-foot-2

191

Daniel Catenacci

Sault Ste. Marie

OHL

C

5-foot-10

183

Adam Clendening

Boston University

HE

D

5-foot-11`

190

Nick Cousins

Sault Ste. Marie

OHL

C

5-foot-11

166

Sean Couturier

Drummondville

QMJHL

C

6-foot-4

197

Joseph Cramarossa

Mississauga St. Michael's

OHL

C

6-foot

188

Phillip Danault

Victoriaville

QMJHL

LW

6-foot

170

Joel Edmundson

Moose Jaw

WHL

D

6-foot-5

191

Travis Ewanyk

Edmonton

WHL

LW

6-foot-1

178

Rocco Grimaldi

USA U-18

USHL

C

5-foot-6

163

Dougie Hamilton

Niagara

OHL

D

6-foot-4

187

Jonathan Huberdeau

Saint John

QMJHL

C

6-foot-1

170

Philippe Hudon

Choate-Rosemary

HIGH-CT

C/RW

6-foot

190

Colin Jacobs

Seattle

WHL

C

6-foot-1

197

Boone Jenner

Oshawa

OHL

C

6-foot-1

204

Nicklas Jensen

Oshawa

OHL

LW/RW

6-foot-2

187

Tomas Jurco

Saint John

QMJHL

RW

6-foot-2

187

Alexander Khokhlachev

Windsor

OHL

C/LW

5-foot-10

188

Patrick Koudys

Rensselaer

ECAC

D

6-foot-2

190

Sean Kuraly

Indiana

USHL

C

6-foot-2

192

Joseph Labate

Holy Angels

HIGH-MN

C

6-foot-4

180

Gabriel Landeskog

Kitchener

OHL

LW

6-foot-1

207

Zac Larraza

USA U-18

USHL

LW

6-foot-2

192

Maximilien LeSieur

Shawinigan

QMJHL

RW

6-foot-2

203

Lucas Lessio

Oshawa

OHL

LW

6-foot-1

197

Luke Lockhart

Seattle

WHL

RW

5-foot-10

180

Adam Lowry

Swift Current

WHL

LW

6-foot-4

186

Mario Lucia

Wayzata

HIGH-MN

LW

6-foot-2

183

Scott Mayfield

Youngstown

USHL

D

6-foot-4

197

Mark McNeill

Prince Albert

WHL

C

6-foot-2

201

Jonathan Miller

USA U-18

USHL

C

6-foot-1

198

Joseph Morrow

Portland

WHL

D

6-foot

197

Connor Murphy

USA U-18

USHL

D

6-foot-3

185

Ryan Murphy

Kitchener

OHL

D

5-foot-11

166

David Musil

Vancouver

WHL

D

6-foot-3

198

Vladislav Namestnikov

London

OHL

C

6-foot

166

Matthew Nieto

Boston University

HE

LW

5-foot-11

175

Marcel Noebels

Seattle

WHL

LW

6-foot-3

195

Stefan Noesen

Plymouth

OHL

RW

6-foot

195

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Red Deer

WHL

C

6-foot-1

164

Scott Oke

Saint John

QMJHL

LW

6-foot-3

185

Jamieson Oleksiak

Northeastern

HE

D

6-foot-7

244

Xavier Ouellet

Montreal

QMJHL

D

6-foot

174

Stuart Percy

Mississauga St. Michael's

OHL

D

6-foot-1

186

Zack Phillips

Saint John

QMJHL

C

6-foot-1

178

Shane Prince

Ottawa

OHL

C

5-foot-10

174

Matt Puempel

Peterborough

OHL

LW

6-foot

196

Alan Quine

Peterborough

OHL

C

5-foot-11

178

Jonathan Racine

Shawinigan

QMJHL

D

6-foot-1

182

Rickard Rakell

Plymouth

OHL

RW

6-foot

191

Ty Rattie

Portland

WHL

RW

5-foot-11

163

Mike Reilly

Shattuck-St. Mary's

HIGH-MN

D

5-foot-11

150

Tobias Rieder

Kitchener

OHL

C

5-foot-11

173

Brett Ritchie

Sarnia

OHL

RW

6-foot-3

210

Robbie Russo

USA U-18

USHL

D

6-foot

189

Brandon Saad

Saginaw

OHL

LW

6-foot-1

208

Reece Scarlett

Swift Current

WHL

D

6-foot-1

164

Mark Scheifele

Barrie

OHL

C

6-foot-2

182

Logan Shaw

Cape Breton

QMJHL

RW

6-foot-3

197

Nicholas Shore

Denver

WCHA

C

6-foot

195

Duncan Siemens

Saskatoon

WHL

D

6-foot-3

192

Ryan Sproul

Sault Ste. Marie

OHL

D

6-foot-3

175

Michael St. Croix

Edmotnon

WHL

C

5-foot-11

176

Ryan Strome

Niagara

OHL

C

6-foot

175

Colin Sullivan

Avon Old Farms

HIGH-CT

D

6-foot-1

190

Ryan Tesink

Saint John

QMJHL

C

5-foot-11

157

Vincent Trocheck

Saginaw

OHL

C

5-foot-10

184

Andy Welinski

Green Bay

USHL

D

6-foot

188

Tyler Wotherspoon

Portland

WHL

D

6-foot-1

203

Zachary Yuen

Tri-City

WHL

D

6-foot

205

NORTH AMERICAN GOALTENDERS

Jordan Binnington

Owen Sound

OHL

6-foot-1

156

Laurent Brossoit

Edmonton

WHL

6-foot-3

193

Christopher Gibson

Chicoutimi

QMJHL

6-foot-1

193

John Gibson

USA U-18

USHL

6-foot-3

205

Matt Mahalak

Plymouth

OHL

6-foot-2

183

Matt McNeely

USA U-18

USHL

6-foot-2

205

Stephen Michalek

Loomis Chaffee

HIGH-CT

6-foot-2

183

Michael Morrison

Kitchener

OHL

6-foot

177

EUROPEAN SKATERS

Joel Armia

Assat

FIN

RW

6-foot-3

191

Rasmus Bengtsson

Rogle

SWE-2

D

6-foot-3

189

Jeremy Boyce Rotevall

Timra

SWE

LW

6-foot

169

Jonas Brodin

Farjestad

SWE

D

6-foot-1

169

Max Friberg

Skovde

SWE-3

LW

5-foot-11

185

Markus Granlund

HIFK

FIN-JR

C

5-foot-10

169

Gregory Hofmann

Ambri

SWISS

C

6-foot

177

Dmitri Jaskin

Slavia

CZE

RW

6-foot-1

196

Karl Johansson

Brynas

SWE-JR

D

5-foot-9

167

Oscar Klefbom

Farjestad

SWE

D

6-foot-4

200

Nikita Kucherov

CSKA

RUS-JR

W

5-foot-10

163

Adam Larsson

Skelleftea

SWE

D

6-foot-3

200

Joachim Nermark

Linkoping

SWE-JR

C

6-foot-1

187

Victor Rask

Leskand

SWE-2

C

6-foot-2

194

Alexander Ruuttu

Jokerit

FIN-JR

C

6-foot-1

183

Miikka Salomaki

Karpat

FIN

RW

5-foot-11

198

Mika Zibanejad

Djurgarden

SWE

C

6-foot-2

191

EUROPEAN GOALTENDER

Samu Perhonen

JYP

FIN-JR

6-foot-4

172

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

RE: Pierre McGuire. When you make predictions, you win some and you lose some. Although some of his recent ones haven't looked to good, as mentioned by commentors above, let's not forget he was blasting every team for not drafting Parise as Parise slipped deeper into the '03 draft and the Oilers gave up their chance to draft him.

And then did the exact same thing the following year when teams let Lauri Tukonen drop all the way to 11.

I agree with most of the posts about McGuire, he is a absolute tool! He was going off about how stocked the Oilers are at forward naming Hall, Eberle, MP but if you don't have a center to play with them how well are the going to do? Does anyone remember the center who played with Anaheim in between Kariya and Selanne? Anyone? Imagine how good they could have been with a top center between them.

Oddly enough most wingers see their production stay the same or even go down with Crosby ;)

The whole theory is a myth.

I know, the center makes no difference. Look at how good Jonathan Cheechoo is doing for the AHL's Worchester Sharks. He lit the lamp for an amazing 18 goals in 55 games! People attributed his good seasons to Thornton but that's such bs. Hes able to keep producing without him.

I dont think it proves that the linemate is irrelevant, but it definitely pokes holes in the "He makes guys better" statement.

I still think linemates can make a difference, I'm just not so sure as to the how and why of it all. Point producers get their points no matter what, so maybe the linemate makes an impact in other areas.

The Nashville Predators are a good example of a team that chose to build from the blueline out. In 15 yrs they've done very little despite having arguably the best 1-2 in the league. Pittsburgh (Crosby and Malkin), Chicago (Toews and Kane), Washington (Ovy and Backstrom) and Detroit (Yzerman,Datsyuk,Zetterberg) have had much greater success to date. If you're into that infinity rebuild thing then by all means, start with your blueliners. Larsson isn't even considered a generational defenceman, he's not even top 5 worthy, Hamilton is already better i feel.

Enough of this larsson nonsense. Analysts always talk about anahiems big top line being one of the best in the NHL. In three years, edmontons top line will be in that conversation. Rnh is our man. Let's drop next year too. Might as well score yakupov. Fail 4 nail!

/offtopic
David Staples just posted an update on ReKhabby:http://blog.scottsdalearizonanews.com/2011/06/nikolai-khabibulin-non-compliance-with.html

That's very interesting. Why on Earth would Khabi go looking for trouble on this? You would think he would be rigidly following everything that the courts had outlined for him to do; if he played his cards right, it was rumoured that he might have been able to shorten his 30-day sentence to a mere 10 days and then simply had some period of probation tacked on. Now, by (allegedly) breaching the terms outlined in Arizona last summer, he may be in jeopardy of not only serving the entire 30 days but possibly having additional time tacked on as well.

I don't know what exactly he did or didn't do, but whatever it was it sounds like exactly the kind of drama he should have been trying to avoid.

@ Tron

While I love the catchy slogan, I'm afraid I cannot endorse the Fail 4 Nail movement. If we want additional talent at this point, we should maybe try something we haven't done in a decade or so; win something, and then buy some decent free agents who want to come play with winners. Hall and RNH were necessary acquisitions; it's now time to move to Stage 2: the winning years.

*Breaks out the dust covered "Void Khabi's contract" argument from the attic*

I was wondering how long that would take. If it ends up that Khabby receives further punishment as a result of his neglect to follow the courts' decision, that may give the Oil the opportunity to cut ties with him all together.

I think the league would have to suspend him before the Oil could request the contract be scrapped, but I may be wrong.

Peter Kosednar of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews tells The Cult: “The Scottsdale City Court told me that it has to do with the Alcohol Screening Classes. No arrest warrant has been issued. No new court date set – yet.”

I know, the center makes no difference. Look at how good Jonathan Cheechoo is doing for the AHL's Worchester Sharks. He lit the lamp for an amazing 18 goals in 55 games! People attributed his good seasons to Thornton but that's such bs. Hes able to keep producing without him.

Hey theirs the odd exception no doubt. Thorton seems to have had some affect a couple times, and the half year Malkin ripped the league a new one, Sykora and Malone seen a slight boost in their numbers.

That said though, don't you think Cheechoo would still be riding shotgun with Thorton if anything approaching 55 goals was going to be the outcome.... after all, no on else on the sharks has come close to those numbers, even proven elite goal scorers.

I'm pretty confident that Cheechoo's drop in production has alot more to do with Cheechoo (injuries) then it does to missing Thorton.

I dont think it proves that the linemate is irrelevant, but it definitely pokes holes in the "He makes guys better" statement.

I still think linemates can make a difference, I'm just not so sure as to the how and why of it all. Point producers get their points no matter what, so maybe the linemate makes an impact in other areas.

I'm just not ready to say linemates dont matter though.

This is the way I look at it:

For the vast majority of players in the NHL, you'll put up roughly the same amount of points with almost any top 6 forward.

IE Kunitz is roughly a 45 - 55 point guy whether his best linemate is Crosby, Kopitar, Krejci or Gagner.

It's when your best linemate is Fraser or Stortini that your production is probably in trouble.

Peter Kosednar isn't of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews, he is the ScottsdaleArizonaNews. It's the name of his blog. Not that that fact changes the news, but in interests of complete disclosure, I thought it should be mentioned. (And I'm sure Staples must have provided that info elsewhere).

Peter Kosednar isn't of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews, he is the ScottsdaleArizonaNews. It's the name of his blog. Not that that fact changes the news, but in interests of complete disclosure, I thought it should be mentioned. (And I'm sure Staples must have provided that info elsewhere).

Taylor Hall will be a stud and get his points regardless of who his linemate is but wouldn't it be nice to have the right guy in the middle to get the most out of him. Fact is that teams who have success in this league are deep and talented down the middle, something that the Oilers are not right now. You can find good dmen. #1 centers, not so much.

I dont think it proves that the linemate is irrelevant, but it definitely pokes holes in the "He makes guys better" statement.

I still think linemates can make a difference, I'm just not so sure as to the how and why of it all. Point producers get their points no matter what, so maybe the linemate makes an impact in other areas.

I'm just not ready to say linemates dont matter though.

I have to say there is something to a linemate.
A Karma, a Zen.. OK.. It's the "Force"!