Indians' odds being stacked in wrong direction for race to postseason

Friday

CLEVELAND — The Indians have had plenty of stretches in the past few years in which they've seemingly been forced to play against a dealer holding a stacked deck.

And, increasingly, it seems as though the dealer has tucked a few aces up his sleeve as if he were a no-good snake at the town saloon in the old, wild west about to initiate a duel at high noon.

As of a few weeks ago, the Indians were cruising. They held the best record in baseball for the previous couple months and were trending toward a healthier roster as they chased down and momentarily caught the Minnesota Twins.

Since then, their odds have repeatedly been beaten down.

Corey Kluber, the club's ace and a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, was likely within a week of rejoining the rotation before a setback put at least his regular season status, and possibly more, in question.

Jose Ramirez, a back-to-back Most Valuable Player finalist and arguably the hottest hitter in baseball during the previous several weeks before his injury, is expected be out of the lineup until at least early October, that is if the Indians make it that far.

Tyler Naquin had held his own this season in the outfield, hitting .288 with a .792 OPS in 89 games, but on Thursday underwent surgery to reconstruct his knee and will be out for potentially nine months.

And the newest addition to the Indians' list of concerns, All-Star closer Brad Hand hasn't been bouncing back from outings like normal and needs a few days of rest before ramping back up. He hasn't been the same pitcher since the All-Star break. He has 5.68 ERA since that time and has dealt with decreased velocity.

The Indians must win this series with the Twins — if not complete a sweep — to make it a race in the final couple weeks of the regular season. They have been aided by the Twins' loss of Michael Pineda from the rotation after he was suspended 60 games for violating the league's drug policy.

But that will be no easy task. The Twins' remaining schedule following this series in Cleveland becomes brutally easy, with seven games against the Kansas City Royals, three against the Chicago White Sox and three against the Detroit Tigers. That's 13 consecutive games against rebuilding teams with nothing to gain this season (except better draft position).

It's the ideal spot for a contender, on top of their 3.5-game lead entering Friday, in part thanks to the the Twins' hot start that took place as the Indians struggled out of the gate.

“We’ve had a tendency to start slow here for whatever reason," Indians manager Terry Francona said. "I should have a better answer to that because you’d like to be good from start to finish. But if I had a choice, I’d take being good at the end. It took us a while this year to kinda find our footing for a lot of reasons. Some of it was injuries, some of it was lack of performance, but once we got going we seemed to kind of hold it, and we’re gonna have to.”

The Oakland Athletics, who entered Friday with a half-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays and a one-game lead over the Indians for the top wild-card spot, don't play a team with a record better than .500 the rest of the way. The Rays, who entered Friday a half-game ahead of the Indians for the second wild-card spot, still have games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, but finish with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Indians have a mixed bag. After the Twins, the Indians have a series against the Tigers followed by a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies at home before they go on the road to finish the season against the White Sox and against the Washington Nationals. In those final three games in Washington, the Indians won't have a designated hitter.

As of Friday, FanGraphs gives the Indians a 46.8 percent chance to secure one of the wild-card spots (and only a 6.6 percent chance to win the division). The A's are at 84.5 percent and the Rays come in at 63.4 percent chance to take a wild-card spot.

And so the odds continue to fall.

Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Indians blog at www.ohio.com/indians. Follow him on Twitter at @ByRyanLewis.

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