December 31, 2005

Yesterday, I blogged about William Safire's predictions about what the Supreme Court would do in a handful of cases. This led to some more generalized speculation in the comments, and Eli wrote:

Actually, with the four on the right, and with the four on the left, we have a court balanced perfectly around one justice. So, one man will control one third of the government. 2006 will be a year in which Anthony Kennedy will wield a sharper and more powerful sword than George W. Bush.

Even though I've said things like this myself, I think it underestimates the intellectual and charismatic powers of the new Chief Justice. So I want to make a different prediction for what 2006 will be like for the Supreme Court: Kennedy will work with John Roberts to forge a newly coherent moderate-conservative position. The project of creating an articulate moderate position will be so compelling and promise such benefits that Stephen Breyer will contribute his formidable skills, and we will see the era of fragmented, ad hoc decisionmaking come to an end.

Brylin, Ann said nothing about Kennedy surrendering his independence. Working with Roberts would be different than working for Roberts. It implies that Roberts would have to give something back. And for that matter we still don't REALLY know how conservative Roberts will be.

And Ann, I think this is the boldest prediction for 2006 I have read. The end of ad hoc decision making? I'll believe it when I read the history books about it way in the future!

As charismatic as Roberts was in his hearings, what evidence do we have re. how the other justices REALLY feel about working with him, and vice versa? Of course, everyone has been putting the best possible public face on things, but sometimes I wonder.

I think it's too soon to say what the true dynamics of the Roberts court will be. Justices always say it takes a couple of years to hit your stride, and I don't expect the new Chief would be any different in this regard.

I predict 2006 will be the year the legislative and the executive combine forces to wage MASSIVE covert internecine guerilla warfare on the judiciary...and wouldn't rule out a politically-manufactured scandal or two.