That's a nice, detailed analysis. I agree with everything you've said about how it's probable some of the key pieces for SF are unlikely to improve this year.

I like to paint with the big brush, and I look at two key points:

1) SF had the best luck with injuries in the league last year, and the Packers had the worst. It is unlikely that SF will be as lucky this year, or that we'll be as unlucky. That, alone, with no other considerations, would point to the Packers closing the gap.

2) The Curse of the Super Bowl Loser. Teams that lose the Super Bowl almost always have a difficult season the following year. They're the conference champs and everybody is gunning for them every week. They've got a serious challenger in their own division in Seattle.

Those are the two big reasons why I think there's an excellent chance the Packers will pass the 49ers up this year.

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To me, it always comes down to the division. Win the division. Now, the Packers have a team in their division that made the playoffs last year, a team that narrowly missed the playoffs and fired their coach, and one of the more talented teams in the league that always seems close to implosion but still has the talent to be considered a playoff contender. We were 5-1 in our division last year and if we can duplicate that we'll be in business again this year.

The Vikings had very good success running the ball against us last year, and IMO, the offseason question isn't "Are we better than the 49ers?", it's "What are we doing about the Vikings?"

Ponder might be better this year. His receiving corps, if healthy, could be better. Peterson is unlikely to be as good as last year but will still probably be pretty good. The Viking defense iimproved from really bad in 2011 to average in 2012 and might actually be better this year.

You don't have to look to SF or the Giants; the challenge for Green Bay this year is taking care of business in our own division. My disdain for the Vikings is well known here, but that doesn't mean that I don't recognize a threat when I see one.

The Vikings had very good success running the ball against us last year, and IMO, the offseason question isn't "Are we better than the 49ers?", it's "What are we doing about the Vikings?"

Ponder might be better this year. His receiving corps, if healthy, could be better. Peterson is unlikely to be as good as last year but will still probably be pretty good. The Viking defense iimproved from really bad in 2011 to average in 2012 and might actually be better this year.

You don't have to look to SF or the Giants; the challenge for Green Bay this year is taking care of business in our own division. My disdain for the Vikings is well known here, but that doesn't mean that I don't recognize a threat when I see one.

Nice point. We have what looks like a brutal schedule. Winning the division is going to be hard. Winning division games is going to be hard._________________
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