Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model provides two forecasts: the Recorded Vote and the True Vote. Pollsters are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Recorded Vote. But they avoid the fraud factor. The fraudulent Recorded Vote is never the same as the True Vote.

The Election Modelis based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. Clinton led the final 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV). The state party-ID weights were adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey weights. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to tracking national party affiliation.

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation (40I-32D-28R), undecided voters are allocated (UVA) to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) gets approximately 75% of the undecided vote.

The estimated popular vote win probability and corresponding Electoral Vote are calculated for each poll. The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the proportional change from the 2012 party-ID to the Gallup 2016 survey. The state votes are calculated by applying the candidate national poll shares to the state party-ID.

The electoral vote is calculated two ways: 1) the total EV (snapshot) in which the winner of the state wins all of the state electoral votes and 2) the statistically expected EV (state win probability times the state electoral vote).

The Sensitivity Analysis tables show the effect of incremental vote shares on the total vote.

The 2008 and 2012 election models exactly forecast the electoral votes (365 and 332 for Obama). But the True Votes were quite different. The 2008 model forecast that Obama would win 420 votes with a 58% share, exactly matching the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%.