What poor Nevada turnout means for Heller

2/8/12 5:54 PM EST

By now, you've read about the turnout drop in Nevada's GOP caucuses and the speculation about what it means for the eventual GOP presidential nominee.

But do the same results offer similar warnings for Sen. Dean Heller?

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who works for Rep. Shelley Berkley, not surprisingly thinks so -- seizing on the 26 percent drop in participation from 2008 in a memo released to POLITICO:

Republicans missed a key opportunity to organize and grow their base. In part because of historic turnout in the 2008 Democratic caucus, Democrats transformed what was a nearly 6,000 person registration disadvantage in late 2006 into an advantage of almost 35,000 after the caucus. That momentum carried through to Election Day, by which time Democrats amassed a 100,000 person registration advantage. By comparison, Republicans have actually lost ground in the run up to their Caucus, as GOP registration declined by some 18,000 between November 2010 and January 2012. While the Democratic edge has eroded somewhat since 2010, the central fact is that there are vast voter registration efforts underway in the state which will pay dividends for Democrats in coming months, while the Republicans missed their best opportunity to add to their rolls.

Saturday’s bumbling disorder also underlines the vast organizational gap between the Nevada Republican Party, which oversaw the Caucus, and state Democrats. There were hints of difficulties early as GOP officials stumbled around publicly searching for a date for the event. Organization at the Caucuses themselves was judged a near nightmare by observers across the board. Voters who arrived late to vote due to Sabbath observance were forced to sign affidavits confirming their delay was due to religious beliefs, while those who refused to sign were turned away, creating significant ill will. Tallying the total votes, a process that took less than a day for both parties to complete in 2008, took the Nevada GOP two full days—twice as long—despite the fact there were 26% fewer votes to count. The bumbling and stumbling Nevada Republicans stand in stark contrast to the well-oiled, highly focused and extremely efficient Democratic organization ready to boost
Shelley’s campaign.

Heller's campaign consultant Mike Slanker calls the memo a "triple bank shot off the wall in the side pocket."

First, the placement of President Obama on the ballot in November will provide all the juice Nevada Republicans need to show up.

But secondly, Slanker said Mellman is "comparing apples to couch cushions."

"A Saturday morning caucus held in places no one had ever been will have absolutely no correlation to turnout in an general election where folks can vote at the grocery store for two weeks leading up to election day," he said.

A Nevada Democratic Party official replies that they are in agreement that there will be larger turnout come November -- but that the constituencies making up an even larger share of the voting pie aren't favorable to Republicans.

"Chief among these will be Hispanic voters who not only voted overwhelmingly for Harry Reid but also voted overwhelmingly against Hispanic Republican Brian Sandoval," said the party official.

Slanker could only shrug.

"Let the Berkley camp go to bed tonight believing this memo," he said.