‘Indonesia’s economy is hurting and the very public spectacle of the executions in April hasn’t helped.’
Photograph: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

On the night of 28 April, much of the world’s media was trained on a prison island off central Java where eight prisoners, including two Australians, were executed at midnight.

The lead up to the executions and the diplomatic repercussions that followed dominated much of the Australian news agenda for the first four months of this year.

Yet after so much sound and fury, debate about the death penalty and engagement with Indonesia on the issue seems to have dropped away.

Sixty people convicted of drug offences were due to be executed this year. So far, 14 have been killed. Why haven’t any other executions been held since that night in April when Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, and six others, were killed?

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Anti-death penalty activists – including myself – have been holding our breath, waiting with dread for further killings to be announced, but the year is racing to a close and the state’s lethal urges appear to be spent.

Indonesia’s so-called drugs emergency, which was the reason given for the rush to the gallows in the first place, has not suddenly gone away. Nor has there been a sudden surge of humanity. But Indonesia’s economy is hurting and the very public spectacle of the executions in April hasn’t helped.

The cost of the executions is being picked over by local press. The last two rounds of executions cost around AU$206,000. For the April executions, Indonesia allocated around AU$20,000 for each prisoner in its “execution budget” and chose Nusakambangan Island for the venue because it was cheaper than other locations. According to local media reports in May, Indonesia’s attorney general wanted to further save costs in the third round of executions.

It’s not just the cost of the actual executions that is putting Indonesians off. A bad economy, a tanking rupiah, slowing growth and the desire to attract foreign investment have meant the “third round” has not gone ahead.

Dr Vannessa Hearman, a lecturer in Indonesian studies at the University of Sydney, told Guardian Australia that the Indonesian government has not yet named when the next batch of executions would take place. “After talk about the third wave, there doesn’t seem to be any further developments,” she said.

Hearman says that while there have been reports about a move away from carrying out executions “because they cost a lot of money and the focus is on growth ... this stalling is more a response to the international outcry to the executions.”

Indonesia has a lot on its plate at the moment. As well as the economy spluttering, there’s massive environmental problems with the fires causing enormous haze, health problems and disruption to trade across large swathes of the country.

Local human rights activists are also busy with other issues, such as the 281 Indonesians facing execution abroad, sex trafficking and corruption. The death penalty, particularly the execution of foreigners, is further down the list of priorities.

Todung Mulya Lubis, lead Indonesian lawyer for Chan and Sukumaran, appeared at the Ubud Writers Festival in Bali last weekend. He spoke of his disappointment with Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo:

When I was involved in the campaign to elect Jokowi, human rights was on the agenda. We’d like more civil society, we’d like abolishment of the death penalty but that hasn’t happened.

The Bali Nine executions has been very damaging for Indonesia ... Our constitution guarantees human rights, and we also have a lot of Indonesians facing death penalty overseas. What morality do we have if this is the double standard that we have?

The mere existence of a double standard was not a cause for pausing the executions earlier this year. Nor was the plea for mercy, or the well-documented rehabilitation of the prisoners.

But perhaps the best hope for abolition of the death penalty is to reframe it in an economic context. Trading partners – both at a government and private level – can take the lead and let it be known that they are uncomfortable doing business in an environment where executions occur, particularly when the justice system is so flawed.

Death row prisoners in Indonesia are routinely denied access to lawyers and are coerced into ‘confessions’ through severe beatings, while foreign nationals facing the death penalty had to deal with a judicial system they hardly understand.

Speaking to the ABC in September, Todung Mulya Lubis said he had seen nervousness among the business community about government policies.

“Jokowi realises, he understands, new investment is not coming to Indonesia,” he said. “Even the existing investment cannot be maintained. They may go any time. And I as a lawyer come across that. I know some of the companies ... are considering leaving, so that is not very good.”

This pause is great news for those on death row who may have thought they’d be killed by now. But Hearman would like to see more certainty.

“Currently no one in the government is moving towards it (more executions). But to me, the danger of keeping quiet is that the death penalty can still be used at some time. It’s not sustainable for the government to have this arrangement.”

Right now, business concerns may be the best hope abolitionists have in stopping the executions.