Kentucky Oaks 138: Make Your Pick

2012 has truly been a year blessed with a multitude of
talent among the 3-year-old crops of both fillies and colts in America. Even
with the loss of such standouts as My Miss Aurelia and Algorithms, both the
Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby have compiled two of the most competitive fields
in the last 15 years. An overflow field of 15 fillies were entered for the 138th
running of the Kentucky Oaks tomorrow at Churchill Downs but a maximum of 14
will actually contest the prized race. The Timothy Hills trained Oaks Lilly
currently sits on the outside looking in as the first ever also-eligible to be
entered in the Oaks.

The most solid contenders:

This edition of the Kentucky Oaks is probably the strongest
field entered since the turn of the century. Grace Hall was installed as the 5-2 morning line favorite off the
strength of her 6 ½ length romp in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr.2) which
means that Empire Maker has sired the favorites for both the Oaks and Derby
this year. It’s easy to look at Grace Hall’s most recent work of :52.10 for
four furlongs and think that she might be coming into the race a little less
sharp than she might need to be but I do not believe that is the case. This is
a filly I have been on for the Oaks ever since her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
runner-up effort and she has done little wrong since then. With only two starts
this year and a huge leap forward in performance between her first and second
run of the year, I think she will improve even more on Friday. This is the
filly to beat. She drew post position 2, just to the outside of On Fire Baby
and to the inside of Summer Applause.

Broadway’s Alibi
and On Fire Baby were made co-second favorites, each at odds of 4-1. Broadway’s
Alibi has been flying under the radar surprisingly ever since her Comely Stakes
(gr.3) romp. She easily defeated the highly regarded Millionreasonswhy in the
one mile contest and has since recorded two solid four furlong moves. The only
worry people seem to have about her, including Todd Pletcher, is that she has
the appearance of a one turn runner. On the other hand her pedigree says there
should be little distance limitations, being a granddaughter of Seattle Slew
through her sire Vindication. She has successfully stretched out from six to
seven furlongs and finally one mile. Her last three quarters in the Comely were
slower than each previous quarter which could be cause for concern, but she was
running very easily and could have given much more if asked.

On Fire Baby will
have to run forwardly to escape getting pinned down on the inside by a wall of
horses moving to the rail from the 13 outside posts. She should be one of the
most fit fillies entering the race having posted two good seven furlongs moves at
Churchill Downs. The biggest cause for concern here is her two month wait after
winning the Honeybee Stakes (gr.3) but with two wins over the Churchill Downs
surface last year already she is on familiar ground and hold an advantage over
a majority of the field.

Eden’s Moon is
one of six fillies that could try to contest the Oaks pace along with Broadway’s
Alibi, Sacristy, Believe You Can, Amie’s Dini and Yara. I absolutely love this
filly’s pedigree and I think her third place finish in the Santa Anita Oaks
(gr.1) is a throw-out. She still ran a good race but just didn’t show that
explosive move the uncorked in her two previous starts. Baffert sent her out
for a 1:14.00 six furlong move on Saturday which was easily the fastest move at
the distance. I think there is a lot of upside to this filly. It’s hard to
believe she has only been running since December which means there is a ton of
room for her to still get better.

Summer Applause
stands to benefit in a big way from all the speed horses running in the Oaks
this year. She is one of the few fillies that has consistently made her final
run from well behind the front-running pack. She will break from post three,
right between Grace Hall and Eden’s Moon, which means she’ll have plenty of
room to get to the rail and secure a good running spot into the first turn. She’s
been making a good appearance at Churchill where she has recorded two works,
both in excellent times, but she has been galloping up to the race since her
:59.60 five furlong work on April 20th. Another one with a huge shot
at winning this year, especially with the strong possibility of a hot pace for
her to close into.

Believe You Can
has been working like a monster for Larry Jones who has compared her physical
condition and attitude to that of Proud Spell’s, prior to her win in the 2008
Kentucky Oaks. With three straight bullet five furlong works, and the last two
run in less than a minute, this filly appears to be peaking at just the right
moment. She enters off a victory over Summer Applause in the Fair Grounds Oaks
(gr.2). The only problem she could have is trying to fight for and hold onto
the lead for 1 1/8 miles with fillies like Grace Hall, On Fire Baby and Summer
Applause waiting to pounce from behind.

Middle ground: Fillies
that could go either way, but might not be ready to win the Oaks.

Hard Not to Like
and Karlovy Vary look the best of the remaining seven fillies in the field.
Hard Not to Like ran the first five starts of her career on the turf and most
recently finished a solid second to Karlovy Vary over Keeneland’s synthetic
surface. I love the look of this Hard Spun filly but I have a feeling she’s not
quite ready to win a race of this caliber. Karlovy Vary had a good work over the Churchill Downs dirt surface, running 1:01.20
for the five furlongs and looking good while doing, but she finished 7th
in her only dirt start last year behind On Fire Baby in the Golden Rod Stakes
(gr.2). Turf has been her surface of choice and I think she’ll be at a slight
disadvantage over the dirt.

Remote possibilities:
Fillies without much of a shot.

Sacristy turned
in one of the worst Oaks workouts to date, working seven furlongs in 1:29.00
over the Churchill dirt strip and visibly tiring towards the end. She’s a toss
for me. Jemima’s Pearl is a daughter
of Distored Humor and is trained by Bob Baffert. She finished a decent third
behind Mamma Kimbo in the Fantasy Stakes and has posted two good five furlong
moves at Churchill but she’s another I don’t think will be able to defeat this
quality field. And Why Not looks the
best of this second tier group even though she’s only won a maiden race out of
her five career starts. She turned in a bullet four furlong work on Saturday,
covering the distance in :46.80 for trainer Michael Matz. She could wind up
taking a piece of the action with a favorable trip. Colonial Empress is the second Empire Maker filly in the race after
Grace Hall and began her career in the Martha Washington Stakes, finishing a
decent 4th. She’s probably a little outclassed at this point in her
career but I’d keep an eye on her for the fall races. Amie’s Dini earned the reputation of being a gutsy, tough filly
after winning the Martha Washington Stakes and finishing second in both the
Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes but her latest Churchill work left much to be
desired. She went five furlongs in 1:05.40. She could be eligible for a bounce
after three hard-fought efforts. Yara
upset Grace Hall in her 2012 debut, taking down the top prize by a head after a
furious stretch battle. She threw in a big clunker finishing a distant 5th
in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes. She has only recorded one four furlong move in
:51.00 since finishing 5th at Gulfstream and I don’t think that’s
going to be enough to win the Oaks.

The final picks:

Grace Hall to win with Broadway’s Alibi and Summer Applause to
fill out the trifecta. I’m afraid to leave Eden’s Moon because I think she’s
going to have a terrific year, but I think there’s a danger she could run too
hard on the front end and not have enough left at the end. On Fire Baby wouldn’t
surprise me in the least if she wins, but I just like the top three better than
her. So now it’s time to sound off, who are your Kentucky Oaks selections?

A lot of support for Grace Hall and Summer Applause so far. My sleeper is Hard Not to Like, I don't think she'll win but she looks good enough to pick up a peice of the action if one of the top three falter.

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Thoroughbred Horse Racing is my passion. It started when at the age of 9 I found a book called Come On Seabiscuit by Ralf Moody on my Mother’s shelf. Reading that book was one of the most exciting things I ever did as a kid. I read that book so many times that I had entire chapters committed to memory and the dust jacket worn and ripped beyond recognition from so much use. From that point on I was hopelessly addicted, reading every book on horse racing I could get my hands on, especially racehorse biographies. In 2009 I began my own blog called Rail Runner on wordpress and have continued to blog there to this day.

Curlin is probably my favorite racehorse of all time. Being able to attend six of his races will always be one of the highlights of my life. Whenever I need to re-find some inspiration in my life all I need to do is watch one of his incredible victories and relive the memories. Rachel Alexandra ranks right up there too. As any horse racing fan will tell you it’s almost impossible to choose just one favorite and I am no exception. Phar Lap and Citation are another two of my all time favorites and the list could go on and on.

I was homeschooled my entire life by my parents and graduated High School in 2006 at the age of 17. Currently I am completing my Marketing degree with the hopes of entering the Thoroughbred Horse Racing field as a writer/journalist , or in the marketing/advertising/promotions side of the industry.

It is my dream to someday become a thoroughbred racehorse owner and win major races across the United States. Who wouldn't want that, right? For about 1 ½ years I was part owner in a racehorse, Lord Greystoke raced, and owned by Hibiscus Stables. I was able to attend one of his races at Belmont Park on Kentucky Derby day, May 2, 2009 and it was an incredible experience. While Lord Greystoke finished 7th in the race, being able to stand in an owner’s box not 30 feet away from Penny Chenery’s owner’s box was one of the most amazing feelings in the world.

Later in the year Lord Greystoke was finally able to break through with a 4 ½ length win which made me feel like one of the world’s most accomplished thoroughbred owners and further fueled my appetite. I think it would be rally neat to win the Appleton Stakes (Gr.3) at Gulfstream Park, even though I'm generally a bigger fan of dirt racing I can't help but think it would be neat for me to win a race with the same name as my last name.

That’s me in a nutshell, just a very passionate, driven young guy that wants to be a part of this amazing sport and share the adventure with other fans.