Belize Weather Forecast: October 17, 2015

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS:
We're in the middle of it this morning.... Moist and unstable conditions persist across the country.
Advisories:
**Small craft caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms** 24-hour forecast:
Cloudy to overcast with some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain mainly over northern areas and some coastal areas.
Winds:
East at 10-20 knots, becoming gusty near heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Marine Forecast: Today:
Winds: East 10-20 kt with occnl higher gusts ; seas: Moderate - rough ; waves: 4-7 ft ; some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of light rain, mainly north.
Tomorrow:
Winds: East 10-20 kt with occnl higher gusts ; seas: Moderate - rough ; waves: 4-7 ft ; some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of light rain mainly north.
Marine Outlook:
(Sunday night) winds: East 10-20 kt with occnl higher gusts ; seas: Moderate - rough ; waves: 4-7 ft ; some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of light rain mainly north.
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 85
General Outlook:
For Sunday and Sunday night is for continuing cloudy with some showers, a few thunderstorms and perids of rain mainly over the north.

Tropical Weather Outlook:
A broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent land areas is producing a large area of cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms. This system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as as it mpves across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, but will continue to produce heavy rainfall during the weekend.

I agree Diane and looking at the www.nhc.noaa.gov there is a chance of development..... We are certainly keeping an eye on it..... The break in the reef on our end of the island looks like Niagara Falls..... Admittedly I'm enjoying the rain a little..... Not the wild wind or lurking power outage, just the rain....

I took my boat in this morning and would suggest not trying it. The whiteouts from hard rain make navigation a little scary. Hard driving rain and rough seas with 30 mph winds this morning on Ambergris Caye.

Well ...... My cistern overflowed. Disconnected all downspouts a little while ago.

Caretaker at RBR got up at 3 AM to start draining pool so it would not overflow and drown/kill landscaping. He said the rain filled it faster than it could drain and he had to put a sump-pump to work to keep the water-level down!

I went down to water's edge to check conditions and noted that there is no saragassum on shoreline in our area.

Watching Weather Channel and there is no mention at all of this system. Go figure.

Good advice Elbert. And to those newbies who trust auto bilges .... Don't.

Wet and wild

It's been a long time since I posted weather from Ambergris Caye. With a broken arm, a crashed computer and basically great weather this season, I have neglected reporting from beautiful Belize. Today is a bit different, and worth a brief post.

Big blob of weather came together over the sea east of us and turned into an event. Winds are strong from the southeast, seas are angry inside the reef. Rains are constant, but I can see out to the reef so it's not quite a whiteout at this moment.

The intrepid Coastal Express's 5:30 run just passed, a bit late but braving the weather for those souls who need to get to and from work up the island.

Would expect some sunken boats at docks this morning. Even a good auto-bilge might not keep up with this storm.

I also expect the saragassum was swept away elsewhere .... That could be nice.

Forecasters say this system will continue to move over land today and tomorrow and perhaps emerge in the Bay of Campeche where it could give birth to an official tropical storm.

Rain, rain, rain. This is not the weather for Thunderstorms, just rain due to a lot of wet air over us and low pressure, squeezing the moisture out of the clouds. The centre of rotation appears to be almost over Belmopan, so no wind with this sort of rain. However, most rain is now north of a line near Belmopan and Belize City. Just when you need it, the American weather sites screw up, NOAA can't be bothered to put the NCEP details on this morning and the Navy can't even be bothered to put anything on any web site. Southern Belize is now clear of rain.

I am expecting this rain area to move slowly northwards, so rain reducing during the day, from the south upwards, there may be a little sun occasionally, but mainly overcast.