How the ruling could affect political players

Congress
The old guard in the ruling party may still believe in the power of Ram Janmabhoomi to polarise polity on communal lines and help the BJP. But the architect of the

Congress

The old guard in the ruling party may still believe in the power of Ram Janmabhoomi to polarise polity on communal lines and help the BJP. But the architect of the Congress revival in the Hindi heartland, Rahul Gandhi, has convinced the Congress that issues of economic empowerment and development have taken precedence over politics of 'Mandal' and 'Kamandal' and the party need not worry about Ayodhya helping the BJP all over again.

Despite the newfound belief in the pull of development-oriented politics versus emotional issues, the Congress is still wary of the Muslim electorate watching the party's responses carefully.

The Congress lost credibility with the Muslims by dabbling in soft Hindutva and inaction during the demolition of the Babri mosque in 1992.

After almost two decades, the Muslims have softened towards the Congress in the Hindi heartland which will help the party revive in the politically-crucial states of UP and Bihar. The Congress' political response to a verdict on the Ayodhya title suit has to be carefully balanced so as to avoid accusations of pandering to soft-Hindutva elements.

While the Congress keeps the Muslims happy, it cannot afford to take any stand that annoys the majority by supporting the removal of the Ram Lalla idols in case of a verdict in favour of the Muslims.

BJP

While the Congress has to keep the Muslims and the Hindus happy, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will struggle to appease its core ideological voter and also appeal to the moderates. In the pursuit, the BJP will be vertically divided between the "modernisers" such as Arun Jaitley and the "hardliners" such as Rajnath Singh, Vinay Katiyar et al.

L. K. Advani will try to achieve the impossible by siding with the modernisers even in his position as the main accused in the Babri mosque demolition case. It will be near impossible for the BJP to resist the temptation of reaping in the rewards of a communal polarisation. For the purpose, the likes of Vinay Katiyar will join the VHP chorus for building a temple at the disputed site.

The BJP will try to appeal to the moderates by a subdued response to the verdict and appease the hardliners by deputing its chief spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad to defend the Hindu cause in the Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court on the day of the verdict.

Bahujan Samaj Party

Mayawati came to power in Uttar Pradesh on the promise of good governance. She would like to preserve that image by not letting any riot or communal tension to flare up in the state.

Communal polarisation does not help the BSP as it got support both from the upper castes as well as Muslims in the last assembly elections. The UP chief minister, therefore, is not taking any chances with the security arrangements.

Samajwadi Party

Mulayam Singh Yadav's graph is down as he senses one part of his core supporters - the Muslims - drifting away to the Congress. A communal polarisation helps the Samajwadi Party consolidate its vote in UP.

For the purpose of consolidation, Mulayam has accused the UP CM of creating a "fear psychosis" by asking for heavy deployment of security forces. The SP might provoke fundamentalists within the Muslim community to respond aggressively to the verdict.

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