This is accounted as what the polls expect. 4% of Democrats voting for Trump, and 3% of Republicans voting for Hillary. As well as last election's numbers of 45% of Independents voting Democratic and 50% voting Republican.

Eh, most polls show both parties losing about the same amount to the other, as is typical.

IBD has both picking up 6% of the other party.ABC Trump picking up 88% of Reps which is higher than IBD so probably.Fox has Clinton picking up 5% of Reps while Trump picks up 8% of DemsReuters has Clinton picking up 6% of Reps with Trump Picking up 7% of Dems

Those are just the first ones I grabbed off RCP but looks like basically the same to me

Yes, Nate had a good record in Obama's election years. Not so good of 2014 or primary year. The main problem for 538 this election cycle is the bifurcation of the polls. In 2012, every major poll was within 4 points of each other. Today, it's over 16 point spread. 7 polls have the race +-2, 5 have it C +3-6 and another 4 have C +9-14%. You didn't see those types of outlier polls, especially of any quantity, in 2008 or 2012. You did in the 2016 primary though and Brexit.

How do you know who turned in what? Michigan doesn't have early voting. Absentee, yes. Those ballots are sealed when turned in and aren't counted till day of election. Nothing on the outside of the envelope indicates what party. I just turned mine in to the Kalamazoo County Clerk so I know of what I say.