Tuesday, June 26, 2012

1. Debby starts to move East...with the frontal boundary that the GFS forecast as being strong days ago....the GFS was right.

2. Look at that moisture left down near the Yucatan for later development, maybe.

3. Look at that strong tropical wave fighting his way west across the Atlantic.

Other things worth noting that I cannot show visually vs waxing poetic as I sit here enjoying cool weather... while watching loops and TWC with a cup of Nespresso...

It's 65 degrees in the Raleigh, RDU area... cool air filtering in through the open windows. Air moving, leaves rustling outside .... something changed. It may be a temporary change, but it's a beautiful change and makes you want to go for long walks ....sing in the shower, open the windows all over the house and eat breakfast on the deck.

Tropical Storm Debby is now slowly moving, forecast to pick up speed and move Eastward (give or take) across Florida. She should come in just south of Cedar Key, but hard to say and if so she has running room as it would have been a faster path to landfall if she had gone north. The Cedar Key area is host to more novels than I can list. Read about it online or in any mystery novel as mystery novels seem to love that particular neck of the wood... mysteries with funky family members I may add.

The GFS has my choice for an award for being a Meteorological Forecasting God this morning. Okay, maybe that's a little sacrilegious, but it definitely needs a little gold statue, a Gatorade bath and possibly a parade down Main Street!!

Great coverage of the problem of damned up rivers and how they hurt beaches that have been eroded by storms which would normally be replenished by the natural action of the sand being replaced as the river flows towards the coast again. Bottom line: We try so hard to control everything and then have to control the problems we generated by trying to control nature to begin with... Originally, water flowed down to the coast from inland rivers... carrying sand, dirt, crystals, various minerals and sentiments down to the beach. We damned up the river in the name of progress and then the natural replenish system of resupplying beaches with sand over time after a tropical storm or hurricane passes doesn't work so we spend more money to replenish the beaches with fresh sand..not native sand mind you either. Every beach in the South used to have it's own character as the sand on the beach was native to it's own ecosystem. Even in the Carolinas some of the beaches have a finer sand, others have a crystalline look to them that makes them shimmer at sunrise... others have broken shells, coral, more dirt, etc..... Once, a long time ago, they thought it was a great idea to blow up the rapids in the Miami River, drain the Everglades so we could plant more orange trees and crops so the Everglades could fulfill their "promise" of being a great farming region able to provide pineapples to Indiana one day... sounded like a great idea at the time............. The problem with doing things in the name of "progress" is that progress is short sighted and never sees the long view down the road or the problems it will cause as they arrive in real time ... like the sand used to work it's way down to the mouth of the river and pile up on the beautiful beach.

Speaking about "progress" it's worth noting thousands, tens of thousands across the region are still without power and Progress Energy in Florida is trying to restore power as soon as possible.

Two people have died so far from deaths attributed to Tropical Storm Debby.

I-10 is closed as well as other major arteries across the NW part of Florida, so check carefully before you insist on going out somewhere if you need to traverse that area today! This changes in live time so check your local weather and online sites as well as Twitter. http://www.fl511.com/

(Oh wow, the leaves are all rustling, feels like Fall suddenly here. An illusion, for sure, but makes me wonder how similar this Debby is to some late summer Tropical Storm crossing Florida slowly waiting for a strong cold front)

Check out the map below often for the exact area that the "center" of Debby's crossing Florida towards the much warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. She is forecast by many to move across the narrowest part of Florida and oddly will exit into an area that helped spawn Alberto and Beryl. Note, her strong rainfall is already raining on Georgia this morning, but the "center" will finally be important if it reforms into a stronger storm after the crossing. Another question yet to be answered. Also, depending on timing... will she zoom off out to sea or stall yet once again?

NOTE... her weather, now moving slowly across Florida in bands will impact areas further to the South. Dog Island will be happy to see her go. Areas around the Cape, Melbourne, Jupiter, etc should all see increased changes of severe weather as she moves east slowly.

More later ...after I take a shower, take a walk, go to the gym and see what she has actually done ...

vs...

what she is forecast to do...

And, when this is all said and done... can we please retire this name now?