“Danielle Smith has been ahead of her party in terms of approval ratings -- she’s at 46% now. Once you get into the 40% zone, you just get a flood of seats that you’re likely to win,” he said.

Despite passing a record $40 billion budget that promised something for everyone -- and an ad campaign explaining it all to Albertans at a cost that approached $425,000, Redford’s PCs have taken it on the chin recently over issues like MLA pay, the no-meet committee, and the multi-million dollar golden handshake for retiring MLAs, Bozinoff said.

“We didn’t see any lift in the polls from the budget. It didn’t give them any boost. Flatness during a budget is remarkable,” he said.

“One of their problems is that they have 40 years of baggage -- generally in an election, it’s the governing party that loses support. The optics are bad because they’re always on the defensive.”

With strong rural roots, Wildrose is way ahead in the rural south -- 46 to 29 south of Red Deer -- and ahead 41 to 36 in the rural north.

In urban centers, the party is surging, blitzing the Tories in Calgary, he said.

“That looks like a disaster for the Tories down in Calgary. The real toss-up area is Edmonton. Wildrose is at 31 to the Tories 30...statistically speaking, it’s an exact tie. We’re going to see some three-way and four-way fights there,” he said.

In a province dominated by PC politics for four decades, an electorate leaning further to the right could say something about the Tory legacy, Bozinoff said.

“It may be that the premier has taken the Tories a little too far towards centre. They’re kind of in the middle, and that makes them vulnerable to either side,” he said.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1069 randomly selected residents of Alberta aged 18 or older.

The poll was conducted on March 26. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.