TORONTO, July 25 (Reuters) - With hungry Canadian shoppersflocking to U.S. outlet malls every weekend in search of deals,it is perhaps no surprise that U.S. developers have plans tobring a dozen or more premium outlets to Canada in the next fewyears.

The strategy is simple: coveted brands at below-retailprices - and no long lines to cross the border.

"What Canadians are looking for is the kind of outletexperience they get in the United States," said Edward Sonshine,chief executive of RioCan REIT, which has partneredwith Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc to bring one ofthe first premium outlet malls north of the border by 2013.

Between RioCan and its competitors, Sonshine expects 10 to15 such malls over the next few years.

But with Canada's once exceptional economy showing signs ofU.S.-like fatigue and a strong Canadian dollar still fuelingcross-border shopping, some experts think the splashy premiummall premise may not live up to the hype.

"The steam is coming out of our economy a little bit, and Ihave maintained for a while that I think a lot of U.S.manufacturers and retailers and developers frankly may bemiscalculating to some extent the voracity of our economy," saidDoug Stephens, president of consultancy firm Retail Prophet.

RIVAL PARTNERSHIPS

The RioCan/Tanger plan to open one mall near Toronto nextyear, and then more near places like Ottawa, Montreal, Edmonton,Calgary and Vancouver, is just half of a retailing juggernautheaded for the relatively untapped Canadian market.

The rival partnership of Calloway REIT and SimonProperty Group Inc is eyeing the Canadian market in part becausethe sluggish U.S. economy has slashed sales at U.S. premiumoutlets, where high-fashion names like Ralph Lauren, Burberryand Saks Fifth Avenue don't draw the spending they once did.

A comparison of income growth also shows why Canadianshoppers may hold more promise than their U.S. cousins. Percapita disposable income has risen 14 percent in the last 10years in Canada, adjusted for inflation, while U.S. disposableincomes are up just 9 percent, says BMO Capital Markets deputychief economist Doug Porter.

Sales at shopping centers in Canada average about $580 persquare foot, compared to $309 in the United States according toa recent report by Colliers International.

Sonshine said there are about 135 premium outlet malls inthe United States - with a population of some 311 million - butnone in Canada, home to 34 million. Canada also lacks the largeluxury malls which are common in the United States and thusseems ripe for expansion.

"Using the usual metric of 1-to-10, I figure there's mayberoom for a dozen of them here, maybe as many as 15, Sonshinesaid. "I will say between Simon and ourselves/Tanger there willbe a half a dozen (premium malls) operating by 2014."

Canadians have proved willing to travel for deals,destination shopping that Sonshine said sets an outlet excursionapart from a regular trip to a regional mall.

"The average visit to an outlet lasts for three and a halfhours by a consumer whereas the average visit to a typicalshopping center is less than an hour. So it's more of anouting," Sonshine explained in an interview.

Even so, not everyone agrees that if developers build themalls, Canadians will necessarily show up.

Retail Prophet's Stephens has crunched a lot of the samenumbers the developers have, with some different conclusions.While Canada has just half as much retail space per person asthe United States, he thinks the lesson may be that Canada isnot as under-retailed as the U.S. is over-retailed.

"I don't view the opportunity in Canada to be as vast and asunbounded as I think a lot of Americans do," said Stephens. "Ipersonally don't think we'll see 10 to 14 of them. I think wemight see half a dozen get built and I think a lot of it isgoing to depend on how our economy performs."

While he admits the premium discount mall format will likelyappeal to the healthy segment of the market that treks south ofthe border for deals - the destination shoppers - Stephens saidconsumers have also become more savvy, realizing that the goodssold in outlet malls are not the same as sold in regular stores.

"If you're going to a premium outlet mall reallyanticipating that you're going to be able to buy high-enddesigner fashions that you would normally get in a full-linestore and you're going to be able to get them at 50 to 70percent off, then you're really deceiving yourself."

PRICE RULES

But not everyone is as skeptical.

"The factory outlet model has been specifically built aroundthe search for the great deal," said Tony Hernandez, director ofthe Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity at RyersonUniversity in Toronto.