In my previous publishment I went bearish doubtlessly. Despite the fact that I'm still bearish I wanna show you both scenarios and my thoughts on it.

Let's jump in!

Going back to the late november/early december when the hype started everybody started to talk about bitcoin . When you went out with your friends to your favourite pub and after a few drinks you were all talking about bitcoin . But you heard about it in the school, in the university, in your workplace...literally everywhere. Few of you started to put a little money not even knowing what is was, guys with bigger balls put a lot of money also not knowing what it was. The price started to go up and in media every NEWS was about bitcoin . The price started to move higher even faster and faster and you told your mom your dad your friend to even your grandma to buy bitcoin . Everybody loves quick fast money, hah?

And it was too good to be true...FOMO (fear of missing out) came in. A lot of people missed the opportunity to buy at low price. People saw that the price was rising, but every time the price made a new ATH (all time high) it was said to be the TOP. But bitcoin was keeping to make ATH's and it seemed that nothing can stop it.

At this point people who hadn't invested started to think about it: what if bitcoin keeps moving up?...I can make a quick money, it is not late yet! Sadly the media was also trying to encourage people to jump in and invest money, a lot of famous people predicted that at the end of 2k17 it is likely to go 30k 40k 50k...so people thought why not jump in at 14k USD at 16k USD at 18k USD at even 20k USD. If the price goes up 50k why not buy at 20k?...I can still double my money,...they thought....

The problem was that people who bought at the start of the year or at 5-8-10k started to realize their profits. And the price started to go down. People who bought at the very top held the money for a short time thinking that it is another little pullback then TO THE MOON again. We also had a cute little bulltrap when the price fall back to 10k then went up to 17k. But the price just kept going down. And grandmams, moms, fathers and other newbie investors started to quit the game and PANIC SELL. It was so obvious that it is gonna happen. Everyone who said it was not a bubble is just ridiculous. Bubbles always happen and bubbles are good if you know how to ride them. But newbie investors have no clue about bubbles. All the whales who bought in early benefited from the pump that media created. And of course whales own and lead media...

Another reason that was it so obvious that is was just a bubble? Just think about it: Why did you buy bitcoin? Because it is a new technology, it is awesome, it is gonna change the world? Or you wanna buy or sell things with it? Of course not, hahaha stop kidding me guys, of course not. The reason is simple: you wanted to MAKE QUCIK FAST MONEY. The amount of people who actually bought bitcoin to use it as a store of value or beliving in the technology or wanted to be part of a revolution is very little...I mean very very little. Of course who bought in early wanted to realize profits. And of course newbie people who bought late panic sold when they saw the price falling because they couldn't handle it psychologically.

In my opinion longterm the price surely gonna go up. Slowly but surely cryptocurrency gonna take over fiat, but I think it is gonna take a very long time. The biggest problem now as I mentioned that people now don't buy bitcoing or other cryptocurrencies to buy or sell things with it. The reason is only money making. When people can overcome this barrier that's gonna be the time for cryptos. And it cannot happen without stablizing the price.

Technical analysis will be in the comment because the number of character I can use is limited.

評論:
So about TA for now:

Bitcoin is touching the mid-term bearish resistance and also testing the 0.618 fibonacci. If it. breaks it might gonna test the 0.5 or to 0.382 fibonacci. The 0.382 I think is unlikely, because I don't feel that much buying power and since
the interest in bitcoin decreased, bulls I think can't push the price that high.

The daily stoch RSI is crossing which is a bearish sign. And the simple RSI is getting close to the overbought level. In my previous publisment I wrote about the hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and the Stoch RSI. As we know it is a
trend continuation sign. But if we make a new high which means going above 12.3k then this hidden bearish divergence sign will be irrelevant, because the price makes a new high and the RSI and the Stoch RSI also makes a new high.

If we bounce back from the resitance (0.618 fibbo and the mid-term bearish trendline) we likely gonna hit the longterm bullish trendline at around 6.5k. Previously I predicted the price to fall back to 5k, but I think that just will not
happen, because if we hit the longterm bullish trendline there surely gonna be a huge buying power. The other possible scenacrio is to hit the 0.618 fibbo (13k USD) which is also the target level of the reversed head and shoulders pattern
that you surely saw on other publishments.

This is it for today guys. This publishment takes a little more time to read, but I hope that you found these informations helpful.

***This is not a financial advie. I'm not telling anyone to buy or sell bitcoin, it is only my opinion.***

評論:
Please leave a comment below if you think it was helpful or you have any questions. And like if you agree. Thanks!