Monday, 31 December 2012

Today I was made aware of this video posted on the pro-opposition news24deiralzour Youtube channel, apparently showing a man being executed titled "execution of a Shabih who tampered with the Quran and likened Bashar to Allah almighty"

Having searched for earlier versions of this video it appears it was first posted on the KatibatAhfadAlrasool Harem Youtube channel, titled "one of Assad's dogs executed in Harem". Harem is a small town in the Idlib region, located here, and the Ahfad al-Rasul [Grandchildren of the Prophet] brigade are believed to be a Jihadist/Salafist brigade operating outside of the FSA, who have been previously been involved with attacks on the Syrian military and security apparatus, including bombings in Damascus in co-operation with the Jihadist/Salafist group Ansar al-Islam

According to the description on the video, and discussion on various pro-opposition forums (for example here) the executed man was a officer in the Syrian Army (variously described as a sergeant major, sergeant, and lieutenant) who was apparently executed for writing pro-Assad slogans that transposed the word "God" with "Assad", which distorted a Koranic verse, committing heresy.

One translator I spoke to said he believed at one point in the video one of the men says "this is the dog who wrote [what sounds like] 'it all belongs to Bashar al-Assad'", and believes it might relate to a popular Jihadist verse "fight them until there is no more strife in the land, and faith belongs entirely to God", with "God" being replaced with "Assad". As of yet it's unclear if any other circumstances surround the execution, but it may relate to this video posted on the same day showing a large number of men arrested by Ahfad al-Rasul in the same region

Update December 31st Something else pointed out to me is that at the end of the video someone says "whoever shot from here, you hit the boy, whoever shot from here, you shot the boy, look!", and a poster on this forum berates the execution, stating a man nearby was shot accidentally during the execution.

Over the past months we've seen an escalation in the air war in Syria, with helicopters being joined by L-39 and MiG jets, and an increasing variety of weapons being deployed by the Syrian Air Force. By examining the various UXO (Unexploded ordnance) filmed by opposition activists in Syria we can see which weapons are being used by the Syrian Air Force, and get an idea of the quantities being used.

They have a very distinctive long thin body, usually a light metallic colour, with black stabliser fins at the rear. The actual explosive charge it only at the very end of the missile, the rest of the body being used to hold propellant. As the above videos demonstrates large numbers of rockets have been used across Syria.

AT-2 Swatters

AT-2 Swatter/3M11 Fleyta anti-tank missile have made rare appearances, the above example being from December 2012, around the same time their was a significant rise in the use of armour by the Syrian opposition. Unlike the other bombs and missiles on this page the AT-2 has an in-built guidance system, the remains of which can be seen in the above video.

OFABs

OFABs are Russian made general purpose bombs (classified as fragmentation/blast bombs in Russia) designed for attacking lightly armoured vehicles, non-fortified structures, and personnel in the field. The first OFABs to be identified as UXO in Syria were the larger OFAB 250-270 bombs

In August, around the same time as L-39s started being used in Aleppo and elsewhere, we began to see evidence of OFAB 100-120 bombs

It's interesting to note that since L-39s were first spotted in Aleppo I've collected around 30 examples of unexploded or partly exploded OFAB 100-120 bombs, compared to a handful of all other bomb types in the same period. This strongly suggests that OFAB 100-120 bombs are the bomb of choice for the Syrian Air Force, and were very likely introduced alongside the use of L-39 jets in Aleppo.

FABs

In October 2012 Russian FAB M62 high explosive bombs first made an appearance. These are simply large high explosive bombs, and while they haven't been used as widely as OFAB bombs they are far larger and much more powerful. Unexploded FAB bombs have been spotted making up part of a massive truck bomb used by Jabhat al-Nusra.

RBK Cluster Bombs

RBK 250/250-275 cluster bomb dispensers and their associated cluster bomblets first made their appearance in the conflict aroundJuly 10th 2012 in the Jabal Shehshebo region in the Hama, later confirmed by Human Rights Watch. Evidence of only one cluster bomb was found at that time, carrying AO-1 SCH fragmentation bomblets, designed to attack lightly armoured targets and ground personnel. Here activists took the incredible risk of lining them up for a Youtube video

Cluster bombs are rather unique as they will nearly always leave behind evidence of their use, namely the dispenser part of the bomb which opens up when deployed to scatter the bomblets, rather than exploding like a traditional bomb. This means that each bomb dropped can be reasonably expected to leave behind a casing.

Until August 2012 there were no more videos of cluster bombs or bomblets until activists in Abu Kamal posted this video

Again, they take a huge risk moving these bomblets to make a Youtube video, and what they are showing here are PTAB 2.5m cluster bomblets, primarily used as anti-armour weapons, but equally deadly to anything else in the area.

There were virtually no other reports of cluster bomb use until around October 10th, when shortly after the opposition captured a major highway in the Idlib region there was a sudden and massive increase in reports of cluster bomb use across the entire country. Later, in late November, we saw the first images of incendiary cluster bombs loaded with thermite based ZAB incendiary bomblets. This escalation in the air war appeared to occur shortly after a series of military bases were captured in the Aleppo region.

ZAB-100-105s

Around the same time ZAB incendiary cluster bombs made their first appearance in the conflict we also saw the first use of ZAB-100-105 incendiary bombs, containing both a napalm style mixture and 9 thermite cartridges designed to scatter on impact. More details of the contents of these bombs can be found here.

ODABs

ODABs are fuel-air bombs which create huge explosive fireballs that are capable of much more destruction against buildings than an OFAB bomb. It's believed by some people these bombs were used in Azaz in an incident where it appears only two bombs flattened houses in "an area of approximately 70-by-70 meters – more than half a football field" killing over 40 civilians. Judging by UXO evidence it appears these bombs have only been used since August 2012, and not in huge quantities. More examples can be found here.

BETABs

So far only a few examples of BETAB penetration bombs have been recorded since their first appearance in September 2012, specifically the BETAB-500M62 free-fall 500kg model. Designed to penetrate and destroy reinforced structures it's unclear why one would be used in a village outside of Aleppo, as the above example was. While these bombs are cleared for use on the various jets used by the Syrian Air Force it's unclear if they can be dropped by helicopters. More examples can be found here.

ADIEDs

From August 2012 there were multiple reports of ADIEDs (Air Deployed Improvised Explosive Devices) dropped across Syria. To begin with multiple examples of what appears to be DIY bombs, barrels filled with explosives and piece of shrapnel were reportedly dropped from helicopters in locations across Syria, followed by an increasing number of reports of "TNT barrel" being dropped.

What appears to have happened is activists have begun to use the term "barrel bomb" or "TNT barrel" to describe pretty much any cylinder shape bomb they see being dropped, something that's reflected in the increasing number of videos being uploaded to Youtube described as showing "barrel bombs" or "TNT barrels" that in fact clearly are OFABs or one of the other bombs shown above.

In late October 2012 videos were posted online that showed members of the Syrian air force dropping these devices from the back of a helicopter, seemingly confirming that these improvised devices were being used by the Syrian Air Force. More examples of ADIEDs can be found here.

Naval Mines

In December 2012 we saw the first sighting of naval mines dropped from helicopters in two locations in Syria. It's unclear how effective these have been as weapons, or whether this reflects supply issues for the Syrian Air Force.

Thursday, 27 December 2012

Now I'm back from my Christmas break I'd thought I'd take a quick look at some of the more unusual videos sent to me by various people over the last week or so. First of all we have a reappearance of another air dropped sea mine that made a much derided appearance earlier in December:

This video was posted online with claims that this was an Israeli provided weapon used by Assad's forces, proving Israeli support for the Syrian government. Rather being Israeli in origin Nic R. Jenzen-Jones of the excellent Rogue Adventurer blog noted that it was a Bulgarian ZH-40 propelling charge, and the star was likely a factory mark

The below video had people scratching their heads, and after some research I managed to identify this as the tail end of a AT-2 Swatter/3M11 Fleyta anti-tank missile, capable of being launched from the ground and from aircraft. While it's impossible to draw reliable conclusion from one example, it is interesting to see this missile around the same time the Syrian opposition is beginning to use heavy armour more widely

I also received a number of queries about this video, which with the help of Nic R. Jenzen-Jones and others I've managed to identify as part of a cluster bomb, with the red markings possibly indicating it's from an incendiary cluster bomb

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Shortly before reports of Richard Engel escape from his Syrian captors made it to the press a video was posted online, with the title "صحفيين كلاب في المصيدة", roughly Google Translated as "Journalists dogs in the trap", to this Youtube channel. The video was swiftly deleted by Youtube for violating it's terms of use, but Twitter user Guardian_Mario, who has been cataloging interesting videos from Syria, managed to download a copy and reuploaded it to his own account

Unlike virtually every Youtube account that reuploads videos from Syrian Guardian Mario carefully records the original information that comes along with the original upload, and helpfully provides further information

Video shows the NBC crew before their release. In the clip the six-man crew -- a German, two Britons, two Americans and a Turk -- plead with their respective governments to help secure their freedom. Speaking to a script prepared by his captors, NBC's Richard Engel said:

"My name is Richard Engel, I'm a correspondent with NBC News. I would like to urged the United States government to do what it can to secure our release and to cease its activities in Syria."

The graffiti on the right wall has a Shia slogan. It says "There is no chivalrous man except 'Ali [a figure revered in Shiaism], and there is no sword except Dhu l-Fiqar ['Ali's mythical sword]."
Graffiti on the left wall is a well-known pro-Assad slogan, and reads: "Assad, or we burn the whole country!"

Guardian Mario also puts together handy panoramas stitched together from video stills, as he's done for the Richard Engel and crew video

As regular visitors to the blog will know in recent weeks there's been a number of videos surfacing that showed partial SA-16 MANPADS in the possession of the Syrian opposition (see here, here, and here for examples). MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems) are shoulder mounted surface to air missile systems, with a number of examples of the more dated SA-7reportedly in use by the Syrian opposition in recent months.

Previous examples of SA-16 sightings in Syria have shown incomplete systems, missing the grip-stock component, which along with the missile tube and battery pack makes up the complete MANPADS system. Missile tubes come preloaded, and battery packs generally have enough charge for one use, with the grip-stock being the only reusable part. This means having a thousand missile tubes and battery packs without a grip-stock is worthless, but one grip-stock would make all of those missile tubes and battery packs usable.

As far as I am aware this is the first example of a complete SA-16 MANPADS system in the possession of the Syrian opposition, and would be a vast improvement on the SA-7 systems seen so far. The main question is how many missiles and battery packs do they have access to?

Update December 18th Peter Bouckaert of Human Rights Watch has just reminded me there was one sighting of a complete SA-16 system before.

Sunday, 16 December 2012

Update December 17th Thanks to the many people who made a variety of suggestions for the identity of the missile, and I believe we now know what this is. It appears to be part of a S-200 surface to air missile, specifically the "PRD-81/5S25/5S28 solid propellant booster using RAM-10K filler with 3-5 sec burn duration". How it got into that field is still a mystery, but it seems we can exclude this video from examples of surface to surface missile in Syria.

Update December 19th Thanks to @massdall for this video which gives a clear view of the booster described above.

In the past week there's been numerous reports in the press of claims by US and NATO officials of Scud missiles being fired at opposition forces in Syria. Since then a number of videos have been posted online claiming to show Scud missile launches, but none have been clear enough to make a positive ID, for example

The Syrian military has a variety of tactical ballistic missiles including Soviet, North Korean, and Iranian missiles, so it cannot be assumed these launches are Scud missiles.

Today two videos were posted online showing the remains of a large missile, possibly the first example of tactical ballistic missile remains being filmed in Syria

The missile is covered with Russian text, but the markings don't give much useful information, with most of it appearing to be basic technical information and information about the correct method of transport, none of which provides enough detail to make a positive ID. As the text is in Russian it means the following missiles used by the Syrian military are the most likely suspects

From what I can tell the missile in the video is too thin to be a Scud, and the OTR-21/KN-02 doesn't appear to have tail fins in the same position, so that would leave the FROG-7. However, due to the damage on the missile it's difficult to find matching features, so for now I'll have to leave this one as an unidentified missile.

The SAKR Factory for
Developed Industries produces two types of 122mm surface-to-surface rockets:
the SAKR-18 and SAKR-36, containing 72 and 98 M42D submunitions, respectively.

So this brings us to the items shown later on in the video

The image quality isn't great, but you get a sense of what they look they, a small munition with what's known as a "drag ribbon" attached, which unfurls when the bomblet is deployed and acts to stablise and arm the bomblet. One problem with this is it also results in the bomblet getting caught up in trees and bushes, presenting an UXO hazard. Unfortunately I've been unable to find a reference image for a M42D bomblet, but here's a couple of example of other very similar bomblets via the Cluster Munition Coalition

You'll note the US made M42 submunition looks very similar, which, based off the designation, makes me wonder if the M42D is a copy of that munition.

In lieu of a reference image for the M42D I cannot say for certain
that the submunitions in the video are M42Ds, but based off the type of
rocket pictured in the video it seems highly likely we have the first
evidence pointing towards a new type of cluster munition being used in
Syria by the Syrian army.

Update December 16th Thanks to Mark Hiznay for pointing me to this reference image of a M42D cluster bomblet, which appears to match the submunition shown in the video

Update January 3rd 2013 This new video has been posted showing a much clearer shot of the submunitions, which appears to match with the above pictured M42D

Update January 7th Thanks to Nic Jenzen-Jones of the Rogue Adventurer blog for providing me with this video of a sales video for these rockets, with good cutaway models showing how the bomblets are held inside the rocket

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Note both the presence of the Free Syrian Army logo, and a version of the Islamic State of Iraq flag modified to include the name of the brigade, taken from the name of one of Mohammad's companions, itself not too unusual. They've operated in the region for several months, and yesterday this video was posted online, from the village of Zarzur

At around 1:15 we see the mosque (marked here) has been set alight, and among the commotion someone says "destroying the dens of the Rejectionists (a term for derogatory of Shiites) and the Shabbiha" and "God is great, all glory to God. The banner of Islam is being raised [over the mosque]", and later flags being burnt.

We also see graffiti that reads "No, 1,001 times to Sectarian strife!", which in the circumstances seems unlikely to have been written by the men in the video

So is this a sign of sectarian violence rearing it's ugly head in Syria? Other motivations for burning the mosque appear unclear, and as the group involved associates itself with the Islamic State of Iraq, an organisation that "aims to establish a caliphate in the Sunni dominated regions of Iraq", it seems there's a strong possibility of sectarianism playing a significant part of the events shown in the video.

BM-21 Grad's can be loaded with 40 rockets, which can be fired of ranges between 20-40km depending on the rocket, and while they've made the occasional rare appearance in the conflict it seems they are being used on an increasing basis, with a couple of examples of missile remnants from the Idlib and Aleppo regions pictured below

A number of more recent videos have been posted showing unexploded missiles, giving us a clear look at what they look like

It's been claimed in some of these videos that these are Iranian Saqr rockets, but the below logo present in each video suggests another source

- The Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) is one of the largest industrial organizations in Egypt.
- It is State-owned and enjoys an international status that gives it complete flexibility in decision-making.
- AOI strategies are drawn by a Supreme Committee whose Chairman is the President of Egypt and whose membership comprises several Cabinet ministers.

On this link you see some of the military products it creates, including 122mm rocket systems.

In Human Rights Watch's April 2011 report on the use of Grad rockets on civilian areas in the Libyan Civil War Peter Bouckaert, the emergencies director at Human Rights Watch states that "the Soviet-made Grad in particular is one of the world's most inaccurate rocket systems and should never be fired in areas with civilians" and goes on to say "firing indiscriminately into civilian areas is a clear violation of the laws of war", something there appears to be increasing evidence of in Syria.

Monday, 10 December 2012

A number of people have sent me this video, which claims to show a complete SA-24/9K338 Igla-S MANPADS

The SA-24 is one of the most advanced shoulder fired surface-to-air missiles in the world, so capturing complete systems would be a massive boon to the rebels, but in this example there's actually nothing much to get excited about. What we are seeing here is a training model, and how do we know that? First of all the entire system is painted silver, indicating it's a training version, but even if a Syrian soldier had got carried away with some silver paint on a working model we also have this rather important word written on the missile tube and grip-stock: