A pub quiz question rarely asked is "How many of the EU's 27 member states were occupied by foreign armies and/or terrorised by dictatorships, domestic and foreign, in the pre-EU 20th century?" The answer is a surprising 25, all but Britain and Sweden.

It may help to explain the contrast between the formerly oppressed EU majority and the cussed scepticism, merging into downright hostility, so evident again in Britain as Gordon Brown sets out this morning for the Lisbon summit. So it is a historical reflex which makes the Sun dress the prime minister up as Churchill for its pro-referendum campaign. The outfit may puzzle younger readers and hurt sales, but it is in the national DNA.

Across the Channel, the majority of EU members are both puzzled and irritated by the insular behaviour of another new British government: so cowed by the Murdoch media, the Telegraph, Mail and their opinion polls, that it dare not even proclaim its negotiating successes in Brussels.

Ireland's former EU commissioner, the business tycoon and Euro-federalist Peter Sutherland, offered a classic specimen of Euro-Grumpy in the Financial Times yesterday, complaining of constant negativism, talk of "no surrender" and of "red lines", combined with exaggerated interpretations of threats posed by the "reform treaty" - the gelded version of the constitution, despite the many concessions to Britain.

"Many" - not him - think Britain does not want to belong to the club and cannot block progress any more. Mr Brown will be given this sort of ticking off if he decides to win easy headlines at home by picking a fight.

One can never be sure with EU summits, but on present evidence everyone wants an aggro-free agreement on the draft today.

Mr Brown, often criticised for day-return EU trips which do not leave time to schmooze, wants his debut summit to focus on practical issues, not on institutional changes to make the enlarged EU work better, which is what the new treaty is all about.

Colleagues will want to help him if he plays ball. French diplomats point out that none of the many unhelpful remarks about the treaty being almost identical to the late constitution has come from them.

Is the sceptics' claim true anyway? Yes and no. The treaty is stripped of supranational symbolism. But the Open Europe no campaign produces excellent briefings to show how Mr Brown's four negotiated "red lines" will crumble in the courts.

The pro-EU Centre for European Reform counters with equal aplomb. No new rights are created; the CBI is now happy. In Brussels they think Britain's opt-outs are far too watertight, it says.

The sceptics hope that a new Lib Dem leader will abandon Sir Ming's hostility to a referendum. Fat chance: both main contenders are ex-MEPs. Mr Brown will muddle through, but pay a political price in Murdochland.