WASHINGTON — The map of closed American embassies — and those that remain open — in the Middle East and Africa provides a window into the Obama administration’s concern about a potentially imminent al-Qaeda terrorist attack on overseas U.S. interests.

While diplomatic missions across a broad swath of the Arab world are affected, some, including in capitals that have been targets for extremists in the past, are not. And those chosen for closure in Africa and the Indian Ocean suggest the fear might be as much about the vulnerability of certain embassies and staff and the range of increasingly mobile terrorists as it is about specific threats.

One apparently key factor: How significant is the security that is now in place?

A total of 19 U.S. embassies and consulates in 16 countries have been ordered to close to the public until Saturday. They run along a jagged, east-to-south crescent from Libya through the Persian Gulf to Rwanda and include the island nations of Madagascar and Mauritius. That’s fewer missions in fewer nations than were ordered closed Sunday in the administration’s initial response to intelligence that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was gearing up for an attack.

The changes, coupled with the inclusions and omissions, show how the threat analysis has evolved.

According to the State Department, the closures are all the result of the same intelligence on the threat.

“It is the same stream that we’ve referenced in travel warnings since Sunday,” department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Tuesday, adding: “Obviously, there’s new information.” She would not elaborate.

Clearly, Yemen, where the department ordered most U.S. government employees to leave early Tuesday, is at the center.

Based on their very close proximity to Yemen, U.S. facilities in that country’s closest neighbors — Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Djibouti — could be considered logical targets, as could posts in Egypt, Jordan, Libya and Sudan. But Lebanon, which has been the site of major anti-U.S. terrorist attacks in the past, is not included. And, neither are Morocco and Tunisia, where extremists also have struck previously.

In each of those countries, past terrorism experience has led the U.S. to significantly increase security at its missions.

Thus, it is significant that the State Department deemed it prudent to close its embassies in Rwanda and Burundi, two tiny central African countries known for genocide and brutal tribal clashes. It also shuttered embassies in Madagascar and Mauritius.

Uneven border policing and inconsistent performance by security forces in each of those four countries, coupled with a less intense day-to-day security focus from Washington could make them attractive to would-be attackers.

Dangerous grounds

Based on their very close proximity to Yemen, U.S. facilities in that country’s closest neighbors — Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Djibouti — could be considered logical targets, as could posts in Egypt, Jordan, Libya and Sudan. A total of 19 U.S. embassies and consulates in 16 countries have been ordered to close to the public until Saturday. They run along a jagged, east-to-south crescent from Libya through the Persian Gulf to Rwanda and include the island nations of Madagascar and Mauritius.

Improved security

But Lebanon, which has been the site of major anti-U.S. terrorist attacks in the past, is not included. And, neither are Morocco and Tunisia, where extremists also have struck previously. Missions in Mauritania, Algeria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, where attacks have long been frequent, were covered in the initial closure order but were allowed to reopen on Monday.

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