Tag Archives: $HCLP

This puts my gains on this positions closing in on 140% since I bought it last August.

Listen: I need you to stop asking me when I’m going to sell. It’s not just a matter of annoyance – you’re sowing doubt in my subconscious. Trust me, I will let you know when I’m going to sell out. It will become apparent… by my selling out.

To be honest with you, there is a very large part of my spirit that demands I sell and “lock in these awesome gains this instant, Cain Thaler.”

With locking in these gains comes tax obligations. That’s about the best of it. And if there is one thing that has become clear to me, looking back at the trail I paved behind, it is that I exit winning positions much too soon. I still make a good profit on them, mind you. But the message of RGR, AWK, ASR, PM, …a half dozen others – is that I am mentally predisposed to take a quick 20-40% gain and walk away, even when my idea is worth far more.

And so I am locked in an epic battle of self restraint. My opponent is a most worthy foe; my emotional self. We are near equally matched, but I have one singular advantage over this knave. I am much smarter than he.

Or at least, I should be, if I take the time to focus and work against him. That is hard enough without tripping on stray rocks being strewn under my feet by the populace.

If you fear of losing your HCLP wins, then take them. Do so silently, and to yourself. Actually, leave a triumphant decree in my comments to let the world know your pleasure with my services. But talk of my selling, no more.

I’ve been keeping up on earnings for my companies as they post, but I haven’t quite had the spare time to translate everything I’m thinking into posts. It’s been a rapid series of reports and not quite enough time to write out my thoughts on the subject.

Rest assured, if there had been any big deviations from the plans, I’d tell you.

As HCLP has been a particularly precious position and given how closely I’m tracking, it merits special consideration.

The company guided in on revenues and missed on earnings (depending on who you ask). But neither of that matters. This is what is actually important:

The company continues to see rapid increases in demand for product. Tonight, in addition to reporting earnings, they also announced another amended contract that, and I quote, “…significantly increases the annual committed volumes under the agreement signed in March and extends the term by two more years.”

No, you’re not seeing things. HCLP just amended this same contract two months ago. I guess realities on the ground have already changed so much that they were afforded the luxury of re-renegotiating.

I look at the last press release from March, where they announced the original amendment to the Weatherford contract, which was to be in place for a further three years, at a specified (then higher) volume of sand, for a higher price.

So two months later, that contract has become a five year contract for even higher volumes.

Yes I do like the sound of that. You can bank on these developments flowing through the natural gas producers and well servicing sectors soon enough. High demand for sand means high demand for gas.

Natural gas inventory is at eleven year lows and there is lingering concern that adverse weather this year could put real pressure on refilling storage. This would translate to pressure on users for higher prices and alleviate much of the residual pessimism surrounding natural gas from 2011.

HCLP announced another 3 year supply agreement after the close yesterday; this time with US Well Services. Like the other, this agreement locks in US Well Services to purchase a minimum amount of frac sand from HCLP each month.

Per the CEO of HCLP:

“We believe that U.S. Well`s commitment underscores the strength of our extensive logistics network of rail-served terminals in the northeast,” said Robert E. Rasmus, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Hi-Crush. “Certainty of supply is critical in today`s market. Our customers need to have access to high-quality frac sand, when and where they need it, and Hi-Crush provides this certainty.”

I spoke with a gentleman in the comments section of another post on this subject just the very day – he had asked why I don’t love SLCA.

Both HCLP and SLCA are laudable enterprises worthy of a look (and probably a buy). But HCLP’s strategy resonates with me. Their insistence on building their business with logistics in mind – as much as supply deposits – is a distinguishing strength which I respond to.

HCLP is up more than 3% today on the news. This is exactly the kind of activity that will lead HCLP to continue to grow revenues at 100% annually. It’s difficult to put a price on this sort of activity – I’m a believer and think a business like HCLP is still advantageously priced for this growth as opposed to, say, a TSLA.

But I’m also sitting on a mid to high- $20’s cost basis, so take that for what it’s worth.

Although my 40% cash position may create the illusion that I am missing out, such a view would be misplaced. Careful allocation and selection on my part is gifting me full participation in today’s excess in spite of recent reservation.

BAS is up 7.29% at the time of this writing, as the natural gas cycle makes full leaps and bounds forward. As I told you it would transpire, this is where your money must be at for the next 10 years. Companies and partnerships like BAS and HCLP will grow at unprecedented rates, facilitating the United States of America back to Her rightful status as Greatest Country and Loan Superpower on planet Earth.

HCLP is also up 2% and taken altogether, my portfolio is up .9%.

As for the excitement about Yellen, I don’t fully understand the sentiment. If you go back and read or listen to anything from Yellen, it’s pretty clear she has been consistently more in favor of Federal Reserve supporting markets and the economy than Bernanke was.

Despite that, there is good reason to believe a deep pullback may come soon enough (first half of 2014). We can’t all be millionaires.

UPDATE If you followed my initial purchase of BAS on 8/16/2012, you are presently up 65% on the position. If you’ve been trading along with me inside The PPT, you are up far more.

Look this is quite straightforward. This partnership is trading at a paltry 14X income and just tripled in size inside of one year.

And a cursory glance immediately revealed another 15% growth just sitting in the pipeline; unaccounted for as of yet. As in, without trying – whammy – have another 15% growth guy.

“Why yes, I believe I will, thank you.”

Just having this trade like the high growth play it is, for 20X income or more, sends it to $50. Add in the 15% growth I’m seeing (and will detail later) and you’re at $59. And that’s before the company even does anything.

This thing is easily going above $60 for a partnership unit. That’s 66% higher from where it’s at right now.

If you’ve been paying attention, I took a position in the partnership HCLP this summer for $24-26, with some adds and trading around the position since then. They sell exactly this sand to well services companies.

A few recent big developments with HCLP include a settlement with Baker Hughes and inclusive six year supply agreement that helped send it to the $32 price it’s at today. Other developments include an almost million share issuance from a parent/sibling company (non-dilutive).

The share price has come under downward pressure (from the million share issuance); however, this exposure is exactly what’s needed to get more money flowing into the position. The partnership is expensive and small, but I love the positioning and think it’s in exactly the right place for major growth over the next decade.

Another position similar to HCLP (and Chuck Bennett honorable mention) is SLCA. They specialize in a similar alternative to the fracking sand HCLP offers.