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Last Week French Officials Stood Up for Offensive Speech. This Week They’re Arresting People for It.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/14/dieudonn_last_week_french_officials_stood_up_for_offensive_speech_this_week.html
<p>The French comedian Dieudonn&eacute; <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/14/dieudonne-arrest-facebook-post-charlie-coulibaly-paris-gunman?CMP=share_btn_tw">has been arrested</a> for a Facebook post from Monday in which he wrote, “Tonight, as far as I’m concerned, I feel like Charlie Coulibaly,” mashing up the popular “Je suis Charlie” slogan with a reference to the gunman who took hostages at a kosher grocery store in Paris last Friday. In part the arrest could be seen as part of the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/13/charlie_hebdo_no_one_in_europe_is_tougher_on_terror_than_france_that_didn.html">beefed-up security measures</a> France has put in place in the wake of last week’s violence. But it’s also not the first time Dieudonn&eacute; has fallen afoul of the law.</p>
<p>The comedian has been convicted of <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-case-of-dieudonn-a-french-comedians-hate">inciting racial hatred</a> multiple times for comments disparaging Jews and denying the Holocaust. The biracial comedian—his father is from Cameroon—<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/movies/dieudonne-french-comic-behind-the-anti-semite.html?pagewanted=all">was once part of</a> a comedy duo with the Jewish comedian &Eacute;lie S&eacute;moun, known for edgy but popular bits mocking cultural differences. But he split with S&eacute;moun in the late 1990s, and his comedy has since veered from Borat-style mockery to outright anti-Semitism.</p>
<p>Dieudonn&eacute; has befriended former National Front leader and Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen and appeared onstage with the Holocaust-denying historian Robert Faurisson. In 2012 he released a widely panned film, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2397489/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1"><em>L’Antisemit</em>&eacute;</a>, which includes an extended segment mocking Auschwitz.</p>
<p>The comedian has also become known for his signature gesture, the <em>quenelle</em>, which critics say is an inverted Nazi salute but which he says is a nonracist symbol of nonconformity. If Americans have heard of Dieudonn&eacute;, it’s likely through the French San Antonio Spurs star Tony Parker, who <a href="http://www.si.com/nba/point-forward/2013/12/30/tony-parker-apologizes-quenelle-gesture-france-nazi-salute-spurs">apologized in 2013</a> for doing the gesture with the comedian in a photo. (Parker said he wasn’t aware of its significance.) The French Premier League star Nicolas Anelka was suspended for five games last year for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/apr/04/nicolas-anelka-quenelle-defence-not-racist">doing the <em>quenelle</em></a> as a celebration after a goal. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Loathsome as many of Dieudonn&eacute;’s remarks are, there’s something ironic in the fact that a government whose leaders were marching last week in defense of the right to offensive expression are this week arresting people for it.</p>
<p>Freedom of speech is protected under French law, but as in several other European countries, there are a few more exceptions to that freedom than in the United States. France’s main piece of <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/01/14/de-charlie-a-dieudonne-jusqu-ou-va-la-liberte-d-expression_4555180_4355770.html">hate-speech legislation</a> prohibits incitement to discrimination, hatred, or violence based on race, ethnicity, religion, nationality, or sexual orientation. Additionally, a <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/09/france-counterterrorism-bill-threatens-rights">controversial terrorism law</a> passed last year bans material that incites or glorifies terrorism. (As the Dieudonn&eacute; case shows, authorities are taking that rule pretty seriously this week.)</p>
<p>A number of high-profile figures have been charged under the law, including Le Pen, who has been fined multiple times for remarks about Muslims and the Roma. His daughter, current National Front leader and presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/02/marine-le-pen-immunity-lifted">may also face</a> charges over remarks comparing Muslim street prayers to the Nazi occupation of France.</p>
<p>Fashion designer John Galliano <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/galliano-found-guilty-over-hate-speech-claims.html">was fined</a> for a drunken anti-Semitic rant in 2011. Actress and animal rights activist Brigitte Bardot <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/15/us-france-bardot-muslims-idUSL1584799120080415">has been fined</a> for insulting Muslims while criticizing halal slaughtering practices. Charges <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20140415-france-bob-dylan-charges-inciting-hatred-dismissed-paris-court/">were filed</a> against Bob Dylan last year for a typically Dylanesque tangent in a <em>Rolling Stone</em> interview in which he (sort of) compared Croatians to Nazis. The case was dismissed on the grounds that he hadn’t intended for the remarks to be published in France. Charges were also <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_and_michel_houellebecq_the_proud_provocateurs_at_the_center.html">filed and then dismissed</a> in 2001 against author Michel Houellebecq, who appeared on the last issue of <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>before the attack, for an interview in which he called Islam “the most stupid religion.”</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the provocateurs at <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> have themselves been targeted under the law. In 2006, Muslim groups tried filed racism charges against the paper for republishing the Danish Mohammed cartoons. Then-President and noted <em>Charlie</em> critic Jacques Chirac <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-2007-op-ed-from-charlie-hebdos-editor-1420655166">offered the groups the services</a> of his personal lawyer, but the charges were eventually dropped. Cartoonist Sin&eacute; was also <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/4351672/French-cartoonist-Sine-on-trial-on-charges-of-anti-Semitism-over-Sarkozy-jibe.html">charged in 2009</a> for a cartoon implying that Nicolas Sarkozy’s son was converting to Judaism for financial reasons. He was eventually fired from the magazine after saying “I’d rather cut my balls off” than apologize for the cartoon.</p>
<p>Sensitivities are understandably high after last week’s attack, and certainly Dieudonn&eacute;’s comments are worthy of denunciation. But it would be unfortunate if the byproduct of an attack on free speech was further legal restrictions on it.</p>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 16:30:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/14/dieudonn_last_week_french_officials_stood_up_for_offensive_speech_this_week.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-14T16:30:00ZNews and PoliticsLast Week French Officials Stood Up for Offensive Speech. This Week They’re Arresting People for It.236150114001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/14/dieudonn_last_week_french_officials_stood_up_for_offensive_speech_this_week.htmlfalsefalsefalseLast Week French Officials Stood Up for Offensive Speech. This Week They’re Arresting People for It.Last Week French Officials Stood Up for Offensive Speech. This Week They’re Arresting People for It.Photo by Guillaume Souvant/AFP/Getty ImagesDieudonn&eacute; posters hang in Tours, France, on Jan. 10, 2014.ISIS and al-Qaida Are Enemies. How Can They&nbsp;​Both Have Been Involved in the Paris Attacks?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/isis_and_al_qaida_are_enemies_how_can_they_both_have_been_involved_in_the.html
<p>In <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/11/amedy_coulibaly_video_kosher_supermarket_gunman_ppedges_allegiance_to_islamic.html">a video that surfaced over the weekend</a>, Amedy Coulibaly, the now-dead suspect in the attack on a kosher market in Paris last Friday, declared his allegiance to “the Caliph of the Muslims, [ISIS leader] Abu Bakr al Baghdadi,&quot; and also claimed to be “with the team who did <em>Charlie Hebdo.”</em></p>
<p>Those two claims seem somewhat contradictory.Before he was killed on Friday, Cherif Kouachi, one of the brothers who carried out the attack on <em>Charlie Hebdo,</em> <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-attackers-gave-interview-to-french-tv-station-we-are-defenders-of-the-prophet-we-took-vengeance-said-cherif-kouachi-9969749.html">claimed</a> to have been “financed by Imam Anwar al-Awlaki,” the late U.S.-born cleric and propagandist for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Kouachi is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/09/us-france-shooting-yemen-idUSKBN0KI0PW20150109">believed to have spent time training</a> with the group.</p>
<p>Both ISIS and AQAP have praised the attacks, but they are definitely not on the same team. Al-Qaida and its affiliates have been at odds with ISIS since<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/03/isis_al_qaida_disavows_syrian_rebel_group.html"> early last year</a> and have fought against each other on the battlefields of Syria. ISIS leader al-Baghdadi declaring himself caliph, as referenced by Coulibaly, was widely seen as a direct challenge to al-Qaida honcho Ayman al-Zawahiri’s leadership of the global jihadist movement. In November, AQAP issued a statement <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/21/world/meast/al-qaeda-yemen-isis/">directly rebuking</a> ISIS’s caliphate claim. There have been some reports that ISIS is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/what_will_change_if_isis_and_al_qaida_patch_things_up.html">patching things up</a> with al-Qaida’s official Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, but worldwide, the two groups are still generally seen as being in direct competition.</p>
<p>So the fact that adherents of both groups seemed to be working together in Paris last week is notable. As Clint Watts of the Foreign Policy Research Institute <a href="http://warontherocks.com/2015/01/inspired-networked-directed-the-muddled-jihad-of-isis-al-qaeda-post-hebdo/?singlepage=1">notes</a>, in the days following the attack, the big question was whether ISIS or al-Qaida was involved. “The answer likely seems to be ‘neither of them’ and ‘both,’” he writes. Watts breaks terrorist attacks into three types: “directed” attacks, like 9/11 or AQAP’s bombing plots, fully orchestrated by groups like al-Qaida; “inspired” attacks, like the lone wolf actions recently seen in Canada and Australia; and an intermediate category he calls “networked” attacks, in which individuals who have spent time with groups like al-Qaida and ISIS organize their own cells with minimal supervision from the larger organizations. The Kouachi brothers and Coulibaly were likely operating along these lines.</p>
<p>While ISIS and al-Qaida, as centralized organizations, may be sworn enemies, things may be more fluid for their adherents around the world, who share a common ideology and common goals. As the counterterrorism researcher Thomas Hegghammer wrote on Twitter today, the dual claims in Paris <a href="https://twitter.com/Hegghammer/status/554625415168655361">suggest</a> that “some jihadis relate to IS/AQ like football teams. You can support different clubs and still watch game together.” Certainly, supporters of the two groups online seem to be <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.636340">reacting to the events</a> in Paris with common enthusiasm.</p>
<p>It might seem somewhat incoherent that these two groups are fighting against each other in the Middle East while their adherents work together in the west. But frankly, they’re not the only ones who’ve been forced into <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/16/iran_and_the_u_s_are_allies_against_isis_but_aren_t_ready_to_admit_it_yet.html">uncomfortable political contortions</a> by the multidimensional civil war in Syria.</p>Mon, 12 Jan 2015 19:41:41 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/isis_and_al_qaida_are_enemies_how_can_they_both_have_been_involved_in_the.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-12T19:41:41ZNews and PoliticsISIS and al-Qaida Are Enemies. How Can They&nbsp;​Both Have Been Involved in the Paris Attacks?236150112002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/isis_and_al_qaida_are_enemies_how_can_they_both_have_been_involved_in_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseISIS and al-Qaida Are Enemies. How Can They&nbsp;​Both Have Been Involved in the Paris Attacks?ISIS and al-Qaida Are Enemies. How Can They&nbsp;​Both Have Been Involved in the Paris Attacks?Photo by Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP/Getty ImagesA French police officer guards a kosher grocery store in Porte de Vincennes, eastern Paris, on Jan. 10, 2015.The Biggest Free-Speech Hypocrites at the Paris Rallyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/the_biggest_free_speech_hypocrites_at_the_paris_rally.html
<p>Sunday’s massive rally may have been intended to demonstrate political unity, but, with 40 world leaders marching, it highlighted some bitter divisions as well, from <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/01/12/top-obama-administration-officials-criticized-for-not-appearing-at-paris-march/">American partisan politics</a>, to the <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/France-did-not-want-Netanyahu-Abbas-at-Paris-rally/articleshow/45854845.cms">Israeli-Palestinian conflict</a>, to the French political establishment’s agonized reaction to the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/frances-national-front-marches-alone-defend-liberty-201059795.html">growing power of the far right</a>. But there was also this: For an event held to support freedom of expression, there were an awful lot of leaders in attendance who curtail that very freedom in their own countries.</p>
<p><a href="http://en.rsf.org/rwb-condemns-presence-of-predators-11-01-2015,47472.html">Reporters Without Borders highlighted</a> a list of free-speech “predators” who traveled to Paris for the event, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, which was the world’s worst jailer of journalists in 2012 and 2013, and President Ali Bongo of Gabon, a country where <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press/2014/gabon#.VLQKvCegTFK">press criticism of the government is discouraged</a> by expansive libel laws and physical attacks against journalists.</p>
<p>Also in attendance were the foreign ministers of Egypt, Russia, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates—all of which rank near the bottom of RWB’s press freedom index. The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_charlie_hebdo_shooting_was_a_violent_attack_against_blasphemy_governments.html">ambassador from Saudi Arabia</a>, where a blogger just began a sentence of 1,000 lashes for blasphemy, was also in attendance.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/23/cpj-report-journalist-deaths-rising-syria">past three years</a> have been the deadliest for journalists around the world since the Committee to Project Journalists began keeping records in 1992. <a href="http://cpj.org/imprisoned/2014.php">More than 200</a> were arrested last year, including both local reporters and an increasing number of foreign correspondents.</p>
<p>Condemnation is usually swift and universal when the perpetrators of attacks on the media are nonstate actors like the Paris gunmen or the ISIS fighters who beheaded two American reporters in the Syrian desert last year. But it’s much rarer for governments to be held accountable for either attacks on or intimidation of the press, or creating an atmosphere that makes such attacks more likely. It’s unfortunate that a rally decrying extreme intolerance gave feel-good cover to some governments that are among the leading perpetrators of it.&nbsp;</p>Mon, 12 Jan 2015 19:33:32 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/the_biggest_free_speech_hypocrites_at_the_paris_rally.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-12T19:33:32ZNews and PoliticsThe Biggest Free-Speech Hypocrites at the Paris Rally236150112001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/12/the_biggest_free_speech_hypocrites_at_the_paris_rally.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Biggest Free-Speech Hypocrites at the Paris RallyThe Biggest Free-Speech Hypocrites at the Paris RallyPhoto by David Ramos/Getty ImagesDemonstrators make their way along Place de la R&eacute;publique during a mass rally following the Paris terrorist attacks, on Jan. 11, 2015.&nbsp;Are Paris-Style Attacks the Future of Terrorism?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/charlie_hebdo_are_paris_style_attacks_the_future_of_terrorism.html
<p>This week’s assault on Paris does not fit into the mold of what we typically think of as a terrorist attack. The attackers employed guns, rather than bombs, fled the scene of the initial attack rather than martyring themselves, and displayed some level of tactical acumen without it being clear that they were trained professionals.</p>
<p>It’s not that commando-style raids have never happened. They just receive less attention than suicide bombings because they more often take place in war zones, where there’s less media coverage than in major international cities. A <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/09/u_n_it_s_been_a_rough_year_for_afghans_especially_women_and_children.html">U.N. report</a> released last July, in fact, found that the Taliban had shifted their tactics from improvised explosive devices to gun battles in heavily populated areas. This is one major reason for the recent increase in civilian casualties in Afghanistan. And this week <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30728158">hundreds are believed to have been killed</a> in a series of shooting raids by Boko Haram on a town in northern Nigeria.</p>
<p>“I would place [the Paris attack] into the ‘urban warfare’ model of attacks,” said Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and co-author of a <a href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/content/uploads/documents/Small_arms_Report.pdf">2012 report</a> commissioned by the U.S. Congress on the use of small arms by terrorists. “First, it’s an attack that’s designed to make use of a broader urban area as a battleground. Second, the attackers intend to survive long enough to extend this out over a couple of days, thus to prolong the terror and keep a place feeling skittish. Urban warfare attacks also often involve taking hostages in one place or another.”</p>
<p>The first example of such an attack on a city at peace was Mumbai in 2008, when about two dozen militants from the Pakistani group Lashkar-e-Taiba attacked multiple locations in the Indian city, firing on civilians, setting off explosives, and taking hostages. The attacks “were perceived as being hugely successful, and al-Qaida has been talking about how to emulate this for some time,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a terrorism analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. In 2010, intelligence services of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany claimed to have disrupted a plan to carry out <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/29/terror-attack-plot-europe-foiled">“Mumbai-style” attacks</a> on several European cities.</p>
<p>Last year’s al-Shabab attack on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westgate_shopping_mall_attack">Westgate shopping mall</a> in Nairobi also fit the mold, involving multiple shooters, hostages, large numbers of casualties, and unfolding over the course of several days.</p>
<p>In the case of the Paris attacks, attention has focused on <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.html">the possible role of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula</a>, the networks’ Yemen-based affiliate. According to a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/09/us-france-shooting-yemen-idUSKBN0KI0PW20150109">Reuters report Friday</a>, intelligence officials believe that one of the two brothers who carried out the shootings, Said Kouachi, met with the U.S.-born AQAP cleric Anwar al-Awlaki during a visit to Yemen in 2011 and may have spent time training with the group.</p>
<p>Pantucci says that in terms of its international operations, AQAP “has mainly been focused on getting very <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/uk-usa-security-plot-idUKLNE84700Q20120508">complicated and sophisticated bombs</a> onto planes.” But, he says, that doesn’t mean it’s surprising that the group would be involved in something like this. “These guys don’t have one methodology and that’s it. They’re flexible and out to make the maximum impact,” he says. The group’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/stephane_charbonnier_the_editor_of_charlie_hebdo_was_on_an_al_qaida_magazine.html">English-language magazine, <em>Inspire</em></a><em>,</em> has suggested a plethora of potential attack methods, and Awlaki had also <a href="http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/20/hasans-e-mail-exchange-with-al-awlaki-islam-money-and-matchmaking/">been in touch</a> with Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan.</p>
<p>The appeal of this kind of attack is obvious. As Pantucci puts it, “The marauding-shooter scenario has maximum effect and only really requires people with guns.” Commando-style attackers need some training—the Indian government <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120503746.html">has long alleged</a> that members of Pakistan’s intelligence services played a role in training and coordinating the Mumbai attackers—but not necessarily a whole lot. The Paris shooters clearly were well-equipped and weren’t complete amateurs, but also made some major tactical mistakes. Military experts interviewed by the <em>Washington Post</em> have said the Kouachis’ shooting stance betrayed a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/01/07/assailants-in-paris-appear-heavily-armed-with-military-style-equipment/">lack of professional training</a>. Plus, they initially <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/paris-killers-got-wrong-address-before-decapitating-magazine.html?utm_source=nextdraft&amp;utm_medium=email">got <em>Charlie Hebdo’</em>s<em> </em>address wrong</a>.</p>
<p>Given the amount of damage the Paris attack caused and the international attention it has garnered, the natural question is whether we’ll see more attacks of this type in the future. The director of MI5 warned Thursday that Britain is at risk of what are now being called “Paris-style” attacks. (It’s worth noting intelligence agencies have a habit of hyping threats to justify their own activities and budgets.) As for the United States, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394113/Al-Qaeda-spokesman-Adam-Gadahn-calls-Americans-buy-guns-shoot-people.html">al-Qaida has been suggesting for years</a> that the country is “awash with easily obtainable firearms” that could be used in a jihadist attack.</p>
<p>The good news is that in order for urban-warfare-style attacks to be really effective, they require multiple participants and some amount of coordination. That means they’re easier to catch before they happen. “It requires plotters, not just a plotter, and Western intelligence services are better at stopping groups,” says Gartenstein-Ross.</p>
<p>“Lone wolf” attacks, like those seen in Canada and Australia in recent weeks, are much harder to detect ahead of time but also usually less effective. Though as numerous non-jihadist American shooters have demonstrated in recent years, a lone gunman can also cause a frightening amount of damage under the right circumstances.&nbsp;</p>Fri, 09 Jan 2015 22:41:38 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/charlie_hebdo_are_paris_style_attacks_the_future_of_terrorism.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-09T22:41:38ZNews and PoliticsAre Paris-Style Attacks the Future of Terrorism?236150109003Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/charlie_hebdo_are_paris_style_attacks_the_future_of_terrorism.htmlfalsefalsefalseAre Paris-Style Attacks the Future of Terrorism?Are Paris-Style Attacks the Future of Terrorism?AFP photo/French PoliceCherif Kouachi, 32, and his brother Said Kouachi, 34.The Kosher Grocery Shooting Follows a String of Anti-Semitic Attacks in Francehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_kosher_grocery_shooting_follows_a_string_of_anti_semitic_attacks_in.html
<p>It is unclear if the grocery store where a hostage situation unfolded earlier Friday was targeted because it is kosher, but the siege there follows a string of attacks on Jewish businesses and synagogues in France, the country with the third-largest Jewish population in the world, after the United States and Israel, as well as the largest Muslim population in Western Europe. Last month, <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20141207-france-fight-anti-semitism-national-cause-cazeneuve-creteil/">speaking at a rally</a> against anti-Semitism in the Paris suburb of Cr&eacute;teil,&nbsp; the country’s interior minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, said that anti-Semitic acts and threats had more than doubled in the past 10 months, and he promised to make the issue a “national cause.”</p>
<p>The rally was prompted by a particularly shocking crime in Cr&eacute;teil &nbsp;in which a couple was robbed and the woman raped in their apartment by armed assailants who told them they had been targeted because “you Jews, you have money.” Tensions reached a high point during last summer’s war in Gaza, when demonstrations turned violent with pro-Palestinian youths <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/french-youth-go-rampage-anti-israeli-protest">attacking Jewish businesses</a> in a neighborhood known for its large Jewish population. Several synagogues were also firebombed. Demonstrators at some rallies <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jewish-world-news/1.604813">chanted slogans</a> like “death to the Jews” and “slaughter the Jews.” These incidents followed an attack in May on the Jewish Museum of Belgium in Brussels, where a French former ISIS fighter <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/01/french-suspect-brussels-jewish-museum-attack-syria">killed four people</a>.</p>
<p>These attacks have added to the growing unease of a community still reeling from the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-17426313">2012 shooting</a> at a Jewish school in Toulouse, which killed three children and a teacher, as well as the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/05/international/europe/05france.html?pagewanted=all">grisly torture and murder</a> of&nbsp; a young Jewish man named Ilan Halimi in 2006. While these dramatic incidents have garnered the most international attention, smaller anti-Semitic crimes have become depressingly commonplace. On New Year’s Day of this year, for instance, a <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/anti-semitic-arson-suspected-in-france-synagogue-attack/">fire was started</a> and a swastika drawn on the wall of a synagogue in a Paris suburb.</p>
<p>While not all the perpetrators of these crimes have been Muslims—police also arrested five men believed to be “far-right” activists for making <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Five-arrested-for-threats-to-attack-French-synagogue-384191">threats against a synagogue</a> last month—the vast majority of them have been, and they have contributed to the increasing public unease about the country’s growing immigrant population.</p>
<p>Notably, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/01/marine_le_pen_and_the_national_front_on_the_rise_france_s_far_right_party.html">anti-immigration National Front party</a>, has taken steps to distance herself from the overt anti-Semitism and Holocaust denialism of her father, the party’s founder, and focused the party’s rhetoric on immigrants from the Muslim world.</p>
<p>Debates over anti-Semitism have spilled over into the country’s cultural conversation as well. Dieudonn&eacute;, one of the country’s most popular comedians, has <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-case-of-dieudonn-a-french-comedians-hate">sparked outrage</a> and hate-speech charges with jokes about the Holocaust and the all-powerful Jewish lobby, as well as his patented gesture, known as the <a href="http://www.si.com/nba/point-forward/2013/12/30/tony-parker-apologizes-quenelle-gesture-france-nazi-salute-spurs"><em>quenelle</em></a>, which resembles an inverted Nazi salute. And in 2009, <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/4351672/French-cartoonist-Sine-on-trial-on-charges-of-anti-Semitism-over-Sarkozy-jibe.html">fired a cartoonist known</a> as Sine for a cartoon the implied that Nicolas Sarkozy’s son was planning to convert to Judaism for financial reasons.</p>
<p>The distinction between anti-Israel and anti-Jewish sentiment can often get pretty hazy, but it seems apparent that Mideast politics are often used as cover for plain old anti-Semitism. While French leaders have vowed to combat this problem, and have recently taken responsibility for past moments in the country’s history of anti-Semitism (in December, France <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/France-to-pay-Holocaust-deportees-60-million-383776">agreed to pay compensation</a> to victims who had been deported to the camps on French railways), the country has seen a dramatic <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/21/world/europe/number-of-french-jews-emigrating-to-israel-rises-sharply.html">increase in Jewish emigration to Israel</a>. The vast majority of the country’s 500,000-strong Jewish community is staying put, but Friday’s events will only increase a growing sense of unease.&nbsp;</p>Fri, 09 Jan 2015 16:57:51 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_kosher_grocery_shooting_follows_a_string_of_anti_semitic_attacks_in.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-09T16:57:51ZNews and PoliticsThe Kosher Grocery Shooting Follows a String of Anti-Semitic Attacks in France236150109002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_kosher_grocery_shooting_follows_a_string_of_anti_semitic_attacks_in.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Kosher Grocery Shooting Follows a String of Anti-Semitic Attacks in FranceThe Kosher Grocery Shooting Follows a String of Anti-Semitic Attacks in FrancePhoto by Johanna Leguerre/AFP/Getty ImagesSwastikas painted on gravestones at the Jewish Cronenbourg cemetery in Strasbourg on Jan. 27, 2010.The&nbsp;Charlie Hebdo&nbsp;Shooting Was a Violent Attack Against Blasphemy. Governments Do This All the Time.&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_charlie_hebdo_shooting_was_a_violent_attack_against_blasphemy_governments.html
<p>The <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>attack in Paris this week was uniquely horrific. But in one way, it was not that unusual: Violent acts in response to “blasphemy” are unfortunately pretty common. They’re just usually perpetrated by governments.</p>
<p>In December, Mauritanian blogger Mohamed Cheikh Ould Mohamed was <a href="https://cpj.org/2014/12/in-mauritania-blogger-sentenced-to-death-for-apost.php">sentenced to death for apostasy</a> for a post he wrote that argued against the religious legitimacy of the country’s rigid caste system, which often <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/18/biram_dah_abeid_an_interview_with_a_modern_day_abolitionist.html">takes the form of chattel slavery</a>. Raif Badawi, a Saudi blogger, won’t be killed for perceived insults to Islam, but this Friday <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/08/saudi-arabia-blogger-raif-badawi-public-flogging">he will receive</a> the first of 20 weekly public floggings. Badawi was sentenced to 1,000 lashes along with 10 years in prison and a $26,666 fine last May on charges that he had insulted his religion on his website, Free Saudi Liberals. As <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jan-08/283419-saudi-arabia-to-flog-activist-for-blasphemy-on-friday-amnesty.ashx">Reuters notes</a>, the government of Saudi Arabia, where judges are trained as religious scholars and have wide latitude to interpret Islamic law, condemned the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> attack but has also called for an international law against insulting religion.</p>
<p>In a recent essay in <em>Foreign Affairs, </em>UCLA law professor Amjad Mahmood Khan <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142711/amjad-mahmood-khan/pakistans-dark-days">argues</a> that Pakistan’s absurdly broad blasphemy laws—under which any “imputation, innuendo, or insinuation” that “directly or indirectly defiles the sacred name of Prophet Muhammad” is outlawed and in some cases punishable by death—have not only led to the arrest of thousands of individuals for crimes as trivial as wearing an Islamic slogan on a T-shirt, but “provide legal cover for terrorists to commit atrocities in the name of protecting Islam’s integrity based on their warped view of the faith.” This includes <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2010/jun/07/ahmadi-massacre-silence-pakistan">the mass killings</a> of members of minority sects like the Ahmadis, who are forbidden by law from calling themselves Muslims and frequently charged under blasphemy laws, <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/11/05/361740085/christian-couple-killed-by-mob-in-latest-pakistan-blasphemy-case">as well as attacks on Christians</a>.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Just this week a Pakistani man who had been arrested in 2011 for blasphemy after declaring himself a prophet but was recently released after being deemed mentally unstable, was <a href="http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2025409573_apxpakistanblasphemy.html">found murdered</a> by gunmen outside of Islamabad.</p>
<p>Blasphemy laws are harshest and most common in the Muslim world, but aren’t exclusive to it. In the wake of Pussy Riot’s church performance, Russia’s parliament passed a new law <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22090308">mandating jail terms</a> for insults to religion. <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/05/28/which-countries-still-outlaw-apostasy-and-blasphemy/">Nearly a quarter of the world’s countries</a> have blasphemy laws on their books, according to Pew, and one out of 10 bans apostasy. The <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> killings have already prompted some Western governments, notably <a href="http://www.newstalk.com/Ireland-needs-to-drop--blasphemy-law-defence-minister">Ireland</a> and <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2015/01/08/charlie-hebdo-attack-spurs-effort-to-abolish-canadas-blasphemy-law/">Canada</a>, to announce that they will reconsider the blasphemy laws on their books. But in much of the world, governments, not terrorists, will continue to be the biggest threat to freedom of and from religion.</p>
<p><em>This post has been updated for clarity.</em></p>Fri, 09 Jan 2015 13:30:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_charlie_hebdo_shooting_was_a_violent_attack_against_blasphemy_governments.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-09T13:30:00ZNews and PoliticsThe
<em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Shooting Was a Violent Attack Against Blasphemy. Governments Do This All the Time.&nbsp;236150109001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/09/the_charlie_hebdo_shooting_was_a_violent_attack_against_blasphemy_governments.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Shooting Was a Violent Attack Against Blasphemy. Governments Do This All the Time.&nbsp;The <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Shooting Was a Violent Attack Against Blasphemy. Governments Do This All the Time.&nbsp;Photo by Arif Ali/AFP/GettyImagesPakistani Christians protest against the country’s blasphemy laws on Aug. 30, 2012.&nbsp;Will Anyone Claim Credit for the Charlie Hebdo Attack?&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/claiming_credit_why_we_shouldn_t_be_surprised_the_no_one_has_taken_responsibility.html
<p>While officials and analysts seem to be leaning toward the theory that the perpetrators of Wednesday’s attack on <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> had help <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.html">from a larger terrorist organization</a>, no group has yet claimed credit. Does this make it more likely that that the shooters were lone wolves, operating independently?</p>
<p>Not at all. First, we’re still in the early days. The shooters remain at large, and it’s not unusual for groups to wait before claiming credit for major operations. As <em>Foreign Policy’s </em>John Hudson <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/16/how-long-does-it-take-terrorist-groups-to-claim-responsibility/">pointed out</a> in the aftermath of the 2013 Boston bombing, Osama Bin Laden <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/1362113/Bin-Laden-Yes-I-did-it.html">took almost two months</a> to claim credit for the 9/11 attacks. And as my colleague <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2014/03/malaysia_airlines_flight_370_do_terrorists_claim_responsibility_for_their.html">Brian Palmer noted</a> during the speculation that surrounded the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, only about 14 percent of terrorist attacks get claimed at all.</p>
<p>Islamist groups, the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/19/more_than_half_of_the_world_s_terrorist_attacks_happen_in_just_three_countries.html">leading perpetrators</a> of terrorist attacks around the world in recent times, are generally less likely to claim credit than nationalist or extreme right- or left-wing groups, as they’re often less interested in winning concessions from their enemies than in simply destroying them. “Anonymous attacks are often taken to indicate that groups are disinterested in building grass-roots support for their movements and closed to efforts at political compromise,” <a href="http://www.aaronmhoffman.com/uploads/1/9/4/7/19478265/jpr_voice_and_silence.pdf">wrote the political scientist Aaron Hoffman</a> in a 2010 paper published in the <em>Journal of Peace Research.</em></p>
<p>Still, if an international group was behind this attack, it does seem likely that we will eventually hear from it. In <a href="http://ericmin.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Min-Taking-Responsibility-APSA.pdf">research presented</a> at the American Political Science Association’s annual meeting last year, the Stanford political scientist Eric Min identified several factors that make terrorist groups more likely to claim credit for an attack. Claims, he argued, are more likely “for attacks that involve high costs (suicide and casualties), institutionally constrained states (democracy), and competitive environments.”</p>
<p>France is a democracy and the attack was large, but the last factor is probably the most important. Terrorists groups are more likely to claim responsibility for attacks when they’re in competition with other terrorist groups. In some cases this can even lead to multiple organizations claiming credit for the same attack. At least three Pakistani jihadist groups <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29871077">tried to take credit</a> for a bombing that killed about 60 people near the Pakistan-India border in November.</p>
<p>At the moment, al-Qaida is competing with its rivals in ISIS on the battlefields of Syria for the loyalty of smaller jihadist groups around the world, and for recruits—including young disaffected Muslims in Western countries like the suspects in the <em>Charlie </em>shooting. And the delay in claiming credit would fit the pattern of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the offshoot that French and U.S. officials have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.html">pointed to</a> as the most likely perpetrator. AQAP <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/16/how-long-does-it-take-terrorist-groups-to-claim-responsibility/">waited several days</a> before praising and claiming involvement in both the Fort Hood shooting and the attempted Christmas Day shoe bombing of 2009, the group’s most high-profile operations in the west.</p>
<p>If al-Qaida is indeed involved in such a successful operation against a long-hated enemy, it seems likely that it eventually will want to make sure that al-Qaida—not ISIS, not anyone else—gets the credit.&nbsp;</p>Thu, 08 Jan 2015 19:40:37 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/claiming_credit_why_we_shouldn_t_be_surprised_the_no_one_has_taken_responsibility.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-08T19:40:37ZNews and PoliticsWill Anyone Claim Credit for the
<em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Attack?&nbsp;236150108002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/claiming_credit_why_we_shouldn_t_be_surprised_the_no_one_has_taken_responsibility.htmlfalsefalsefalseWill Anyone Claim Credit for the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Attack?&nbsp;Will Anyone Claim Credit for the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Attack?&nbsp;Photo illustration by Antoine Antoniol/Getty ImagesFrench newspapers in the wake of the <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>attack.&nbsp;What We Know About the Terror Group Thought to Be Behind the Paris Attackhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.html
<p>Following eyewitness testimony <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_attack_al_qaida_staffer_says_terrorists_id_d_selves.html">reported Wednesday</a> that the gunmen in the <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>massacre claimed to be from “al-Qaida in Yemen,” a French police official tells the AP on Thursday that the suspects, French brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi, are believed to be linked to a Yemeni terrorist network.</p>
<p>If it’s true that al-Qaida’s Yemeni offshoot, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, was involved in the attack, Wednesday was quite a day for the group. In Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/officials-say-suicide-bomber-kills-at-least-15-in-yemen/2015/01/07/fa10c54c-962f-11e4-8385-866293322c2f_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost">suicide bomber killed</a> at least 37 people when he rammed a bus rigged to explode into a gathering of recruits outside a police academy. No one has yet claimed responsibility for that attack, but it fits a pattern of recent al-Qaida assaults in the country.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/terrorists_or_rebels_what_do_groups_like_isis_and_al_qaida_actually_spend.html">Most al-Qaida affiliates today function</a> as both militia movements in local conflicts like Yemen’s and part of an international network supporting attacks abroad. And AQAP has certainly had its hands in a number of major international plots over the years. Anwar al-Awlaki, the New Mexico-born cleric and AQAP propagandist who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011, <a href="http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/20/hasans-e-mail-exchange-with-al-awlaki-islam-money-and-matchmaking/">communicated with and encouraged</a> Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan for months before the U.S. Army officer went on a shooting rampage, killing 13 people in 2009. Al-Awlaki <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/al-awlaki-directed-christmas-underwear-bomber-plot-justice-department-memo-says/2012/02/10/gIQArDOt4Q_story.html">was also in touch</a> with Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the “underwear bomber,” before his failed attempt to blow up an airplane on Christmas Day 2009. Awlaki is also thought to have come up with the idea for <em>Inspire,</em> al-Qaida’s English-language magazine, which aims to provide aspiring jihadists with ideas for attacks and potential targets, including, chillingly, <em>Charlie Hebdo’s </em><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/stephane_charbonnier_the_editor_of_charlie_hebdo_was_on_an_al_qaida_magazine.html">now-slain editor</a>.</p>
<p>AQAP’s international goals haven’t diminished since Awlaki’s death. In 2012 the Obama administration said it <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/uk-usa-security-plot-idUKLNE84700Q20120508">had disrupted</a> another plot by the group to blow up an airliner bound for the U.S. or another Western country with a new and improved underwear bomb. And with the operational control of al-Qaida’s global leader and Osama Bin Laden’s direct successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, diminished, AQAP is thought to be playing a much larger role in the network’s global operations. AQAP’s current leader, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, <a href="http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/08/03/analysts-terror-warning-may-be-linked-to-choice-of-al-qaeda-chief-deputy/">now serves</a> as global al-Qaida’s “No. 2” and general manager. A former personal aide to Bin Laden known for his organizing and propaganda savvy, Wuhayshi <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/16/al_qaida_meeting_video_is_al_qaida_general_manager_nasir_al_wuhayshi_confident.html">brazenly held an open-air meeting</a> with more than 100 fighters in Yemen last year. This was a sign of considerable confidence given that his three predecessors were all killed in drone strikes.</p>
<p>If AQAP was involved, even indirectly, in Wednesday’s attack, it would be the group’s biggest success outside the Middle East in quite a while. And coming at a time when international attention has shifted to al-Qaida’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/25/what_the_treatment_of_two_american_prisoners_tells_us_about_the_isis_al.html">hostile erstwhile allies ISIS</a>—with that group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/06/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-isis?CMP=twt_gu">directly challenging</a> Zawahiri’s leadership of the international jihadist movement—it’s a sign that al-Qaida is still far from contained.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/c/charlie_hebdo.html"><strong><em>Read more of Slate’s coverage of the</em> Charlie Hebdo <em>attacks</em>.</strong></a></p>Thu, 08 Jan 2015 15:34:22 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-08T15:34:22ZNews and PoliticsWhat We Know About the Terror Group Thought to Be Behind the Paris Attack236150108001charlie hebdoJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/08/al_qaida_in_the_arabian_peninsula_what_we_know_about_the_terror_group_thought.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhat we know about the terror group thought to be behind the Charlie Hebdo attack.What We Know About the Terror Group Thought to Be Behind the Paris Attack1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3975657518001Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty ImagesA woman holds a sign that translates “I Am Charlie” at a gathering in front of the French Embassy in Madrid. &nbsp;The Editor of Charlie Hebdo Was on an al-Qaida Magazine Hit Listhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/stephane_charbonnier_the_editor_of_charlie_hebdo_was_on_an_al_qaida_magazine.html
<p>It’s still early going, but the sophistication of Wednesday’s attack on the French satirical magazine <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>is, as the <em>New York Times</em> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/08/world/europe/experts-assessing-parisian-assault-see-footprints-of-al-qaeda-in-video-clips.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;smid=tw-nytimes">reports</a>, leading experts to suspect the involvement of al-Qaida or one of its affiliates. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_attack_al_qaida_staffer_says_terrorists_id_d_selves.html">According to one eyewitness</a>, one of the gunmen yelled, “Tell the media that this is al-Qaida in Yemen” as he was fleeing.</p>
<p>Another clue: In a recent issue of <em>Inspire</em>, the English-language magazine published by the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>editor St&eacute;phane Charbonnier, one of the 12 people killed Wednesday, was featured on a <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/al-qaeda-mag-publishes-wanted-dead-or-alive-list_704904.html">hit list</a> under the caption “A Bullet a Day Keeps the Infidel Away.”</p>
<p>The other figures on the list, with their photos displayed under the headline “Wanted Dead or Alive for Crimes Against Islam,” are Kurt Westergaard and Lars Vilks, two cartoonists who have already survived assassination attempts after drawing cartoons of Mohammad; Carsten Juste and Flemming Rose, editors at <em>Jyllands-Posten,</em> the Danish newspaper that caused an international scandal by publishing Westergaard’s cartoons in 2005; Terry Jones, the Florida preacher best known for attempting to publicly burn the Quran in 2010; Geert Wilders, the leader of the right-wing Dutch Party for Freedom, known for his outspoken criticism of Islam; Morris Sadek, an Egyptian Christian activist based in Virginia, best known for promoting the anti-Mohammad film <em>The Innocence of Muslims</em>; and Salman Rushdie, the celebrated author who spent years in hiding after being threatened by Islamic fundamentalists over his book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0812976711/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>The Satanic Verses</em></a>. (Several of the names are misspelled in <em>Inspire</em>’s graphic.)</p>
<p>The page also separately lists two women, though it does not include their photos: Ayaan Hirsi Ali, the Somali-American activist and critic of Islam, and Molly Norris, the American cartoonist who promoted “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day” in 2010 to protest the censoring of a Mohammad-themed episode of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000GDC4YQ/?tag=slatmaga-20">South Park</a>.&nbsp;</em></p>
<p><em>Inspire, </em>which has distinguished itself through its slick graphic design and cheeky headlines like “How to Build a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” was the brainchild of the American AQAP members Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan, but has continued to publish intermittently since they were killed by U.S. drone strikes in 2011.</p>
<p>Terrorism analysts <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/23/inspiration-inflation/">have criticized</a> English-speaking reporters for attributing too much importance to the publication, which often seems aimed as much at the media as at potential jihadists. Which is why it’s a mistake to read too much into the list. It’s highly unlikely that the French-speaking perpetrators of Wednesday’s attacks got the idea from the magazine. But it certainly gives an indication of the mindset that led to Wednesday’s events, not to mention the strange but very real focus on writers and cartoonists.&nbsp;</p>Wed, 07 Jan 2015 22:22:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/stephane_charbonnier_the_editor_of_charlie_hebdo_was_on_an_al_qaida_magazine.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-07T22:22:00ZNews and PoliticsThe Editor of
<em>Charlie Hebdo </em>Was on an al-Qaida Magazine Hit List.&nbsp;Here’s Who Else Is On It.236150107003Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/stephane_charbonnier_the_editor_of_charlie_hebdo_was_on_an_al_qaida_magazine.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Editor of <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>Was on an al-Qaida Magazine Hit List.&nbsp;Here’s Who Else Is On It.The Editor of <em>Charlie Hebdo </em>Was on an al-Qaida Magazine Hit List.&nbsp;Here’s Who Else Is On It.From <em>Inspire</em>’s May 2013 issue.France Was on Edge Over Terrorism Even Before the Charlie Hebdo Attackhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/france_was_on_edge_over_terrorism_even_before_the_charlie_hebdo_attack.html
<p>We still don’t know much about the attackers <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/07/paris_terror_attack_terrorists_attack_charlie_hebdo_killing_at_least_12.html">who killed 12 people</a> at the offices of the satirical newspaper <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> in Paris on Wednesday, though the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_and_michel_houellebecq_the_proud_provocateurs_at_the_center.html">paper’s track record</a> on poking at Islamic extremists and the <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2e6vh3_video-des-images-de-l-attaque-au-siege-de-charlie-hebdo_news">video</a> of the black-clad gunmen chanting “Allahu Akbar” as they made their escape makes their motivation pretty apparent.</p>
<p>France hasn’t seen an attack on this scale since seven people were killed in a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toulouse_and_Montauban_shootings">shooting rampage</a> against a Jewish school and French soldiers in 2012. And it comes at a time when the country is on high alert over French extremists fighting in Syria. (Though it’s worth keeping in mind that <em>Hebdo</em>’s offices had been bombed before and the paper had been a target of extremists long before the war in Syria started.)</p>
<p>France, a member of the international coalition fighting ISIS, is also one of the <a href="http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/infographics/26584940.html">leading suppliers</a> of foreign fighters to ISIS and other Islamic extremist groups. The French interior ministry stated in September that about <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20140914-france-jihad-islamic-state-citizen/">930 of its citizens</a> are fighting with jihadist groups, including ISIS and the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, in Iraq and Syria. France is one of a number of European nations that instituted policies last year aimed at <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/us-syria-crisis-france-idUSBREA3L0YJ20140422">preventing young people</a> from traveling to the Middle East to take up arms, motivated in part by fears that these fighters could return to France to carry out attacks at home.</p>
<p>The concern is legitimate. Senior ISIS leaders have <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/isis-threatens-west/">specifically called</a> for attacks against citizens of France, as well as other countries involved in the coalition. Last May, Mehdi Nemmouche, a French jihadist of Algerian origin who had spent time fighting with ISIS in Syria, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/01/french-suspect-brussels-jewish-museum-attack-syria">shot and killed four people</a> in an attack on the Jewish Museum of Belgium in Brussels. A French journalist who was held captive by ISIS later recalled being <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brussels-jewish-museum-massacre-suspect-mehdinemmouche-is-syrian-captor-claims-kidnapped-journalist-9716473.html">beaten by Nemmouche</a>. And in November the French government confirmed <a href="http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/francois-hollande-confirms-two-frenchmen-in-islamic-state-video-622803">that two Frenchmen</a> had appeared in the video depicting the beheading of American aid worker Peter Kassig as well as 18 Syrian prisoners.</p>
<p>Recent days have also seen a series of smaller attacks in France. On Dec. 20, French police <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/20/us-france-shooting-idUSKBN0JY0KI20141220">shot dead</a> a man who had shouted “Allahu Akbar” while stabbing three officers in a police station near the city of Tours. Just before Christmas, the country <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/12/23/second-car-attack-on-pedestrians-in-as-many-days-injures-11-in-france/">saw two attacks</a>, one in Nantes and another in Dijon, involving cars hitting pedestrians, which fit a pattern of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/05/car_attack_in_jerusalem_why_are_terrorists_ramming_vehicles_into_crowds.html">similar recent attacks</a> around the world. In the car attacks, prosecutors <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20141222-dijon-attack-not-act-terrorism-says-prosecutor/">specifically said</a> the men were mentally unbalanced and that these were not instances of political or religious terrorism, though that definition seems a little hard to parse given that the Dijon driver was a recent convert to Islam who was reportedly <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20141222-dijon-attack-not-act-terrorism-says-prosecutor/">upset over the treatment of Chechen children</a>.</p>
<p>It is fair to say that these earlier attacks were almost certainly the work of self-motivated lone actors who may have been inspired by jihadist propaganda but weren’t acting under direct orders from anyone. These kinds of attacks are extremely hard to prevent—lone wolves leave less of a paper trail than organized terror cells—but tend not to be all that effective.</p>
<p>Wednesday’s attack was several orders of magnitude more sophisticated and deadly than these earlier efforts. One early eyewitness account suggests that Wednesday’s gunmen identified themselves as members of “al-Qaida in Yemen,” which is likely a reference to the Yemen-based chapter more commonly known as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP isn’t linked to ISIS, though its compatriots in Jabhat al-Nusra have also been targeted by Western airstrikes in recent months. Whether or not it turns out that the gunmen were under orders from AQAP or another group, this was an attack that likely took extensive planning and coordination.</p>
<p>Last month Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned that France was facing an “<a href="http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Attaques-de-Joue-les-Tours-Dijon-et-Nantes-Valls-Nous-ne-minimisons-pas-ces-actes-676456">unprecedented</a>” threat from terrorism. At the time it seemed a bit of an overstatement in a country that has sadly known its share of terror over the years. Judging by the fact that the perpetrators were able to carry out such a well-executed attack in a major European city, escape the scene, and reportedly did it speaking perfect French, he may have been right.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/c/charlie_hebdo.html"><strong><em>Read more of Slate’s coverage of the</em>&nbsp;Charlie Hebdo</strong><em><strong>&nbsp;attack</strong></em></a><em><strong>.</strong></em></p>Wed, 07 Jan 2015 19:35:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/france_was_on_edge_over_terrorism_even_before_the_charlie_hebdo_attack.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-07T19:35:00ZNews and PoliticsFrance Was on Edge Over Terrorism Even Before the
<em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Attack236150107002charlie hebdoJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/france_was_on_edge_over_terrorism_even_before_the_charlie_hebdo_attack.htmlfalsefalsefalseFrance Was on Edge Over Terrorism Even Before the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> AttackFrance Was on Edge Over Terrorism Even Before the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> Attack1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3975657518001Photo by Thierry Zoccolan/AFP/Getty ImagesPeople rally in support of the victims of the attack on the offices of the satirical weekly <em>Charlie Hebdo</em>, in Clermont-Ferrand, on Jan. 7, 2015.&nbsp;The Proud Provocateurs at the Center of Today’s Paris Terror Attackhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_and_michel_houellebecq_the_proud_provocateurs_at_the_center.html
<p><em>Charlie Hebdo</em>, the French publication that was the victim of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/01/07/paris_terror_attack_terrorists_attack_charlie_hebdo_killing_at_least_12.html">a horrific terrorist attack</a> Wednesday, is no stranger to courting controversy and even danger with its no-holds-barred satire.</p>
<p>Formerly known as <em>Hara-Kiri</em>, the paper <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-15551998">first gained national notoriety</a> in 1970 with a headline mocking the death of former President Charles de Gaulle—“Tragic dance at Colombey [de Gaulle’s home] - one dead”—that led to it being shut down by the government. Undeterred, the paper quickly reconstituted under its current name and has been taking shots at sacred cows ever since.</p>
<p>In the last decade or so, <em>Hebdo </em>has been needling the delicate sensibilities of Islamic extremists, with often tragic consequences. In 2006 it <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6479673.stm">reprinted the cartoons</a> of the Prophet Muhammad that had been originally published in a Danish newspaper several months earlier and had provoked rioting and attacks on Danish and European facilities throughout the Muslim world. The paper’s editors were charged with inciting racial hatred, which is illegal in France, but eventually acquitted.</p>
<p>In 2011 it published “Charia Hebdo,” a special issue “guest-edited by Mohammad,” whose cover promised readers “100 lashes if you don’t die laughing.” The paper’s offices <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/world/europe/charlie-hebdo-magazine-in-paris-is-firebombed.html?action=click&amp;contentCollection=Europe&amp;module=RelatedCoverage&amp;region=Marginalia&amp;pgtype=article">were firebombed</a> and its website hacked in response. &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>The following year, at the height of the controversy over the YouTube video <em>The Innocence of Muslims,</em>&nbsp;it <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-charlie-hebdo-affair-laughing-at-blasphemy">again published cartoons of Muhammad</a>, this time naked in mock advertisements for a film guaranteed to “set the Muslim world ablaze.” (Hebdo’s cartoonists are equal-opportunity offenders: One faced <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/4351672/French-cartoonist-Sine-on-trial-on-charges-of-anti-Semitism-over-Sarkozy-jibe.html">charges of anti-Semitism</a> in 2009 for a cartoon suggesting that Nicolas Sarkozy’s son was converting to Judaism for financial reasons.)</p>
<p>Reactions to Hebdo’s provocations from other French media outlets and the political establishment <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-19660785">has been mixed</a>. In 2011, some newspapers stood up for the publication’s right to free speech, but others, including the conservative <em>Le Figaro</em>, criticized its “silly provocations,”&nbsp; saying that they play into the hands of extremists. During that controversy, France’s prime minister and foreign minister criticized the decision to run the cartoons at a time when tensions were already running high and lives could be in danger. The paper’s editor <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-charlie-hebdo-affair-laughing-at-blasphemy">told <em>Le Monde</em></a> at the time, “I’m not putting lives at risk. When activists need a pretext to justify their violence, they always find it.”</p>
<p>That appears to remain true. It’s unclear at the moment whether Wednesday’s attack was a reaction to <em>Charlie Hebdo</em>’s past actions or whether it was linked to the newspaper’s latest issue, which features the satirical novelist Michel Houellebecq, whose newest book, according to the <em>New York Times,</em> imagines “a future France run by Muslims, in which women forsake Western dress and polygamy is introduced.” The issue’s cover features a picture of a cigarette-smoking Houellebecq with the caption: “In 2022, I will do Ramadan.” Like <em>Charlie Hebdo, </em>Houellebecq also does not shy away from controversy, particularly when it comes to Islam.</p>
<p>Houellebecq, probably the best internationally known French writer working today, first rose to prominence with his 1994 novel <em>Extension du domaine de la lutte, </em>translated into English as <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1846687845/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>Whatever</em></a>, a kind of updated French existentialist anomie for the digital age. In 2001, shortly before the 9/11 attacks, he released <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1400030269/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>Platform</em></a><em></em>, in which the protagonists open a profitable sex tourism business in Thailand before being gunned down at the end in a massacre by men in turbans. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In an interview surrounding the release of that book, Houellebecq <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/sep/18/booksnews.islam">described Islam</a> as “the most stupid religion,” prompting legal charges of inciting hatred by Muslim groups in France that were eventually dropped. The affair inspired then-President Jacques Chirac to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/8796739/The-Michel-Houellebecq-Phenomenon.html">remark that</a> “sometimes we should have these intellectuals spanked bare-arsed in the streets.”</p>
<p>While Houellebecq, whose feelings about Islam are more than matched by his publicly voiced disdain for his home country, is France’s most successful literary export in years, reaction to him is more mixed back home, where his books,<em> Platform </em>in particular, are often derided by critics as misogynistic and juvenile. In 2010 he was somewhat vindicated by winning the Prix Goncourt, France’s most prestigious literary prize, though it was a bit of a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/nov/08/michel-houellebecq-prix-goncourt">backhanded compliment</a> since the awarded work, <em>The Map and the Territory, </em>depicts the brutal murder of a character named Houellebecq.*</p>
<p>Invariably fearless, sometimes excessively so, both <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> and Houellebecq are leading examples of an intellectual tradition that holds giving offense and provocation as both a right and a duty, even in the face of fanatical acts of violence like the one seen today.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Jan. 7, 2015:</strong> This post originally misstated the title of Michel Houellebecq’s novel </em>The Map and the Territory<em> as </em>The Map of the Territory.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/c/charlie_hebdo.html"><strong><em>Read more of Slate’s coverage of the</em> Charlie Hebdo</strong><em><strong> attack</strong></em></a><em><strong>.</strong></em></p>Wed, 07 Jan 2015 16:11:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_and_michel_houellebecq_the_proud_provocateurs_at_the_center.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-07T16:11:00ZNews and PoliticsCharlie Hebdo and Michel Houellebecq:&nbsp;The Proud Provocateurs at the Center of Today’s Paris Terror Attack236150107001charlie hebdoJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/07/charlie_hebdo_and_michel_houellebecq_the_proud_provocateurs_at_the_center.htmlfalsefalsefalseCharlie Hebdo and Michel Houellebecq:&nbsp;The Proud Provocateurs at the Center of Today’s Paris Terror AttackCharlie Hebdo and Michel Houellebecq:&nbsp;The Proud Provocateurs at the Center of Today’s Paris Terror Attack1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39756575180011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3975657518001Photo by Marc Piasecki/Getty ImagesA reader peruses the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> newspaper in a Parisian cafe on Jan. 7, 2015.Xenophobia Is Going Mainstream in Germanyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/pegida_marches_xenophobia_is_going_mainstream_in_germany.html
<p>For the past several weeks, the East German city of Dresden has been the site of weekly <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/08/world/in-german-city-rich-with-history-and-tragedy-tide-rises-against-immigration.html">demonstrations</a> organized by a recently formed group called PEGIDA, the German acronym for Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West. Yesterday’s rally <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/1/5/german-anti-muslimprotestersrallydespitemerkelplea.html">was the largest yet</a>, drawing 18,000 people.&nbsp;</p>
<p>PEGIDA’s presence is significant enough that it drew a denunciation from Chancellor Angela Merkel as well as from dozens of politicians and celebrities who <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30694406">published a petition</a> in the country’s most popular tabloid, <em>Bild</em>, criticizing the rallies<em>.</em> PEGIDA’s supporters might be a minority, but they’re clearly effective at driving the conversation.</p>
<p>Why has this movement, founded by a previously unknown former publicity agent with several burglary convictions named Lutz Bachmann, caught on? Far-right anti-immigrant groups have long been a factor in German politics, despite laws preventing Nazi imagery or incitement of “hatred against segments of the population.” Authorities have been unsuccessful in attempts to ban the extremist NPD party, often described as a neo-Nazi organization, but despite some electoral successes, the group has been pretty adept at sabotaging itself. &nbsp;</p>
<p>So far, PEGIDA has been smarter. They are taking the same ideas that traditionally were only voiced by scary guys with shaved heads and armbands—the anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiments—and packaging them in a way that normal middle-class Germans can embrace.&nbsp; PEGIDA has banned neo-Nazi symbols at its rallies and declared itself non-xenophobic and against &quot;preachers of hate, regardless of what religion.&quot; It’s platform supports the right to &quot;sexual self-determination,&quot; and a speaker at one rally in December <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/anti-muslim-pegida-movement-rattles-germany-a-1009245.html">even quoted Martin Luther King</a>. While a number of the demonstrators have been members of the NPD or far-right football hooligan groups, press accounts describe most of the marchers as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/08/world/in-german-city-rich-with-history-and-tragedy-tide-rises-against-immigration.html">ordinary citizens</a> alarmed by what they see as an uncontrolled foreign influx. The movement has appropriated the chant “Wir sind das Volk!” (“We are the people”), a rallying cry of the opposition movement under East German Communism, much to the irritation of the East German-raised Merkel. The protests have also <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/04/dresden-germany-far-right-pegida">attracted those</a> angry about seemingly unrelated causes ranging from factory farming to NATO’s “aggression” toward Russia.</p>
<p>The <em>Guardian</em>’s Kate Connolly has noted that PEGIDA members<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2015/jan/06/pegida-what-does-german-far-right-movement-actually-stand-for"> have a habit</a> of beginning their sentences with variants of “I’m not racist, but…” Though it's been packaged for the widest appeal, much of the group’s rhetoric, from inveighing &quot;cultural foreign domination of our country&quot; to the &quot;protection of Judeo-Christian culture&quot; isn’t all that different from other far-right groups. And its got a captive audience.</p>
<p>Germany has one of the most liberal asylum policies in Europe and last year, around 200,000 refugees entered the country, many fleeing the war in Syria. The Syrian situation has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/us-mideast-crisis-germany-idUSKBN0IH0PL20141028">prompted some legitimate security concerns</a> in Germany, due to both the potential for pro-ISIS attacks like those seen recently in Canada and Australia, and the recent clashes between Kurds and ultrareligious Salafist groups in several German cities. All this has left the public primed for the emergence of a phenomenon like PEGIDA.</p>
<p>But even after successive waves of immigration from Muslim countries, Turkey in particular, dating back half a century, only <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22727898">1.9 percent of Germans</a> self-identified as Muslims in the 2013 census. The real number is thought to be higher than that—respondents aren’t required to state a religion—but it’s still a small minority and only a tiny fraction of Germany’s Muslims are religious extremists. In Dresden, the epicenter of the PEGIDA movement, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/04/dresden-germany-far-right-pegida">Muslims are only .1 percent</a> of the population. Foreigners as a whole are only 2.8 percent, compared to 14 percent in Berlin. Conditions are not exactly ripe for the emergence of a Dresden caliphate.</p>
<p>The German media has mocked the protesters’ <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30694673">chants of</a> “potatoes not doner kebabs” and their <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/anti-muslim-pegida-movement-rattles-germany-a-1009245-2.html">fears that</a> their daughters will soon be required to wear headscarves, but the marches clearly represent more than just an extremist fringe. One recent poll found that <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/anti-muslim-pegida-movement-rattles-germany-a-1009245.html">34 percent</a> of Germans share the view that Germany is becoming increasingly Islamicized and another found that one in eight people <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30685842">would join a PEGIDA</a> march if it took place near their home. (Judging by the attendance numbers in offshoot rallies yesterday, which were not as strong in Berlin and Cologne as they were at the main demonstration in Dresden, a lot of these people weren’t quite willing to walk the walk.)</p>
<p>PEGIDA’s opponents so far have been trying to dismiss it as part and parcel of a movement that includes people who wave swastikas and try to <a href="http://www.thelocal.de/20140828/police-suspect-arson-in-berlin-mosque-fire">burn down mosques</a>. “They are clearly Nazis,” one observer in Dresden <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/08/world/in-german-city-rich-with-history-and-tragedy-tide-rises-against-immigration.html">commented to the <em>New York Times</em></a>. But to a lot of Germans, that’s not so clear. &nbsp;PEGIDA has appeal beyond the traditional far-right fringe, and it would be a mistake for German leaders and the media to simply dismiss it. &nbsp;</p>Tue, 06 Jan 2015 22:31:36 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/pegida_marches_xenophobia_is_going_mainstream_in_germany.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-06T22:31:36ZNews and PoliticsXenophobia Is Going Mainstream in Germany236150106002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/pegida_marches_xenophobia_is_going_mainstream_in_germany.htmlfalsefalsefalseXenophobia Is Going Mainstream in GermanyXenophobia Is Going Mainstream in GermanyPhoto by Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesPEGIDA's January 5 rally in Dresden.Will Obama Press Mexico’s President for Answers on the Disappearance&nbsp;of 43 Students?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/enrique_pe_a_nieto_will_obama_press_mexico_s_president_for_answers_on_the.html
<p>Mexican President Enrique Pe&ntilde;a Nieto is meeting with President Obama at the White House on Tuesday. Even under normal circumstances, trade, energy, and immigration issues would give the two leaders more than enough to talk about, and these are certainly the subjects Pe&ntilde;a Nieto would prefer to have on the agenda.</p>
<p>But the big question going into the meeting is whether and how the presidents will address the ongoing controversy over the Mexican government’s handling of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/ayotzinapa_could_the_disappearance_of_43_students_bring_down_the_mexican.html">the disappearance of 43 students from Ayotzinapa</a>, in the southwestern state of Guerrero. The suspected involvement of local authorities along with drug cartels in the students’ disappearance last September—as well as the Mexican government’s ineffectual response—has prompted massive protests across Mexico, as well as <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/11/17/mexico-strike-protest.html">some in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>The case has deeply affected <a href="http://mexico.cnn.com/adnpolitico/2014/12/01/pena-tiene-su-nivel-de-aprobacion-mas-bajo-en-dos-anos-de-mandato">Pe&ntilde;a Nieto’s public approval, which is at its lowest in his two-year presidency</a>–lower than that of his predecesors, Vicente Fox and Felipe Calder&oacute;n, and the lowest for any Mexican president in nearly 20 years. The U.S. government—the primary foreign backer of the Mexican government’s drug war— has been generally hesitant to weigh in on the case, though the State Department <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2014/12/234657.htm#MEXICO">has faced questions</a> over whether it will review Mexico’s human rights standing.</p>
<p>But what could be the most damaging blow to Pe&ntilde;a Nieto’s administration came last month. <a href="http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=390560">An investigation conducted by the Mexican magazine <em>Proceso</em></a> with support from the Investigative Reporting Program at the University of California at Berkeley claimed to confirm the Mexican military’s and federal government’s direct involvement in the disappearance of the 43 students.</p>
<p>The investigation from <em>Proceso</em> is based on more than 900 pages of official documents, on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYzy0TRNirE">recently uncovered video from the attack</a> and on student testimonies. It contradicts the government’s version of events, that this was a strictly local issue of corruption and collusion with drug gangs. According to the official version, on the night of Sept. 26, Iguala and Cocula police, without the federal government’s knowledge and under orders from the mayor of Iguala, attacked the students, killing three of them and delivering the other 43 to the local drug gang, Guerreros Unidos, who murdered them before incinerating their bodies at a nearby dump.</p>
<p>It took the <a href="http://noticias.univision.com/article/2152369/2014-12-06/mexico/noticias/cronologia-de-la-desaparicion-de-los-43-estudiantes-de-ayotzinapa">attorney general’s office eight days to agree to investigate the case</a>, after multiple requests from the students’ families and the press, and it only did so when it became known that organized crime, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29669115">Guerreros Unidos</a>, had been involved. But according to a previously unpublished report from the state of Guerrero dating back to October and that was delivered to the Ministry of Interior more than a month ago, federal forces not only already knew what had happened—they had been monitoring the students’ movements since they left Ayotzinapa that night and were waiting for them when they arrived at Iguala, where they participated in the attack. In cellphone videos of the attack, someone can be heard saying, “The police are leaving, the Feds are going to stay and try to bother us.”</p>
<p>Then, after more than a month of being involved in the investigation, Attorney General Jes&uacute;s Murillo Karam announced at a press conference on Nov. 7 that three members from Guerreros Unidos had confessed to murdering and burning the students and had testified against the mayor of Iguala, Jos&eacute; Luis Abarca, and against the Iguala and Cocula police. But according to documents from the attorney general’s office obtained by <em>Proceso</em>, at least five of these gang members had been tortured by marines and federal police putting their testimonies in question.</p>
<p>Federal Police Commissioner Enrique Galindo <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2014/12/16/politica/003n1pol">denied any involvement from federal authorities</a>, as did Murillo Karam during <a href="http://www.cnnmexico.com/nacional/2014/12/16/no-hubo-actuacion-de-la-pf-en-la-agresion-a-normalistas-de-ayotzinapa-pgr">an interview with CNN en Espa&ntilde;ol</a> on Dec. 16. He stated federal police did know the students were traveling to Iguala, but denied any participation in the attack or having received a report from the government of Guerrero on allegations of torture, even though <em>Proceso</em> found medical opinions carried out by the attorney general’s office where the abuses are thoroughly documented. Only after the <em>Proceso</em> investigation was published did Murillo Karam admit there had been federal officers present in Iguala, contradicting his earlier statements from November.</p>
<p>But perhaps the most unequivocal and damaging evidence against the government’s narrative comes from scientists at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, or UNAM, who put together a <a href="http://www.cencos.org/comunicacion/cientificos-desmienten-a-pgr">report</a> that <a href="http://noticias.univision.com/article/2187673/2014-12-12/mexico/noticias/cientificos-desmienten-version-de-la-pgr-sobre-caso-ayotzinapa">claims the government’s official narrative “has no basis in scientific fact</a>.” To cremate 43 bodies, a space 10 times as large as the Cocula dump would’ve been necessary, as well as 33 tons of tree trunks 4 inches wide, equivalent to two trailer trucks full of wood. If they had used fuel, 117 pounds of fuel per body would’ve been needed, burning for eight days straight. If tires had been used, they would’ve needed 995 passenger car tires, burned at least 2,597 degrees, which would’ve left behind two and a half tons of steel wire and a column of smoke visible for several miles.</p>
<p>Jos&eacute; Antonio Montemayor, head researcher at the Physics Institute at UNAM, <a href="http://noticias.univision.com/article/2187673/2014-12-12/mexico/noticias/cientificos-desmienten-version-de-la-pgr-sobre-caso-ayotzinapa">told Univision that government officials are mocking the country</a> by “creating a fantasy.”</p>
<p>“When we say it’s impossible, we’re not playing around,” <a href="http://www.wradio.com.mx/noticias/actualidad/sin-sustento-cientifico-version-de-pgr-sobre-caso-ayotzinapa-especialistas/20141211/nota/2547618.aspx">Montemayor said</a>, “We’re aware of the seriousness of the situation.”</p>
<p>This opens up a lot of questions regarding the entire investigation (<a href="https://es.noticias.yahoo.com/agentes-fbi-colaboraron-investigaci%C3%B3n-crimen-iguala-185632028.html">on which the FBI has collaborated</a>), and particularly about the only body that has been identified so far. One of the 43 students’ identities was confirmed by DNA tests run by Argentinian forensic experts. But they stressed they can’t confirm if the body comes from the Cocula mass grave since they weren’t present when that body bag was recovered, a statement that has helped stoke the controversy.</p>
<p>Pe&ntilde;a Nieto’s handling of the case has only made matters worse. The Mexican president warned several times ahead of the Nov. 20 protests in Mexico City that the authorities would be well within their rights to use force against any attempts to “destabilize, generate social disorder and above all, in attacking the national project we’ve been constructing.” Seemingly acting on those warnings, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/mexicos-infrarrealista-revolution">federal police arbitrarily arrested and brutally beat 20 protesters</a> and bystanders during the protests. Detainees were charged with criminal conduct, rioting, and manslaughter, held in isolation, and transferred to maximum-security federal prisons with abhorrent human rights records. They were released 10 days later with no charges for a lack of evidence. According to some of those detained, the police abused them and threatened to burn them alive—a clear reference to the Ayotzinapa students.</p>
<p>In light of all of these compounded events, and after a violent clash last month <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/1512/mexico/dos-imagenes-de-guerrero-policias-arrollados-manifestantes-pisoteados/">between federal police and teachers and family members</a> of the Ayotzinapa students who were protesting in Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero, the students’ parents <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/1612/mexico/padres-de-ayotzinapa-suspenden-dialogo-con-el-gobierno-federal/">suspended dialogue with the government</a>. &nbsp;Though the government is maintaining its version of the events, their credibility has all but vanished.</p>
<p>What precisely was the government’s role on the night the 43 students disappeared is still&nbsp; unknown. President Obama should take Pe&ntilde;a Nieto’s visit as an opportunity to ask.&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Special thanks to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/humbertobeck">Humberto Beck</a>&nbsp;for assistance on this post.</em></p>Tue, 06 Jan 2015 13:30:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/enrique_pe_a_nieto_will_obama_press_mexico_s_president_for_answers_on_the.htmlJuliana Jiménez Jaramillo2015-01-06T13:30:00ZNews and PoliticsWill Obama Press Mexico’s President for Answers on the Disappearance&nbsp;of 43 Students?236150106001Juliana Jiménez JaramilloThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/06/enrique_pe_a_nieto_will_obama_press_mexico_s_president_for_answers_on_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseWill Obama Press Mexico’s President for Answers on the Disappearance&nbsp;of 43 Students?Will Obama Press Mexico’s President for Answers on the Disappearance&nbsp;of 43 Students?Photo by Daniel Becerril/ReutersA demonstrator burns a photo of Mexican President Enrique Pe&ntilde;a Nieto during a protest in support of the 43 missing Ayotzinapa students, in Monterrey on Nov. 20, 2014.Two Americans Charged in Ill-Conceived Plot to Overthrow the Dictator of the Gambiahttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/two_americans_charged_in_ill_conceived_plot_to_overthrow_the_dictator_of.html
<p>When Yahya Jammeh, the Gambian dictator best known internationally for calling gay people “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2014/02/24/gambian_president_calls_gays_ungodly_vermin_how_america_should_respond.html">ungodly vermin</a>,” promoting his own <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/17244005/ns/health-aids/t/gambias-president-claims-he-has-cure-aids/#.VKsCxmTF_38">herbal cure for AIDS</a>, and promising to rule for “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-16148458">one billion years</a>,” blamed an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/02/dozens-arrested-and-weapons-cache-found-after-failed-gambia-coup">attempted coup d’&eacute;tat</a> last week on “dissidents based in the U.S., Germany and U.K.,” it was easy to dismiss it as the ramblings of a paranoid strongman. The leader of one of the <a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/gambia/report-2013">world’s most repressive countries</a>, presumably, has more than enough enemies at home.</p>
<p>But for once, “his Excellency Sheikh Professor Alhaji Dr. Yahya,” as he <a href="http://www.statehouse.gm/president.html">prefers to be identified</a>, may have gotten it right.</p>
<p>The U.S. Justice Department on Monday <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-gambia-security-usa-idUSKBN0KE17C20150105">filed charges</a> against two Gambian-American men with conspiring to overthrow Jammeh’s government. Cherno Njie, a Texas businessman, allegedly bankrolled the plot involving about 10 to 12 people, most of them British. (There’s no mention of Germans in today’s press reports.) He planned to lead the country after Jammeh was overthrown. Papa Faal, a Minnesota resident and dual citizen who served in the U.S. Army in Afghanistan, allegedly joined the plot in August, angry over vote-rigging and repression in his home country.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1389956-gambia-complaint.html">criminal complaint</a> filed in a court in Minnesota on Monday (<a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/01/05/375141211/u-s-charges-two-americans-over-attempted-coup-in-gambia">via NPR</a>) documents an almost comical lack of preparation. Njie and Faal had originally planned to ambush Jammeh while he was traveling across the Gambia. When they found out he was out of the country, they elected to attack the presidential palace in the capital, Banjul, instead. According to the suit, the conspirators believed the president’s troops would surrender rather than die for him, but instead the troops fired back, killing most of the attackers and sending the rest fleeing.</p>
<p>Faal, codenamed “Fox” during the operation, escaped to Senegal, where he turned himself in at the U.S. embassy. Njie returned to the United States and was arrested upon arrival at Washington’s Dulles airport. At Faal’s house, FBI agents found a manila folder with “top secret” written in black marker on it, containing Google Earth images of Banjul. Njie’s house contained a handwritten document laying out his vision for the Gambia’s political future, including such questions as “Do you have a budget?” “How many troops do you have?” and “what is your plan after takeover?”</p>
<p>Coup plots against brutal West African dictators tend to attract a certain kind of overambitious adventurer. Most memorable was the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3597450.stm">misbegotten 2004 “wonga coup” attempt</a> against Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, a tangled mess involving British and South African mercenaries and—allegedly—<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1583116/Equatorial-Guinea-seeks-to-extradite-Sir-Mark-Thatcher-over-attempted-coup.html">Margaret Thatcher’s son</a>. Faal, at least according to his statements, appears to have been a bit more idealistic than the wonga plotters, motivated by concern over the dire state of affairs in his country, even if he didn’t really think through the consequences of what he was getting involved in.</p>
<p>In case you’re wondering, it’s legal in many cases for U.S. citizens to <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/09/02/is-it-legal-for-americans-to-fight-in-another-countrys-army/">fight in another country’s war</a>, but plotting aggression against a nation “with whom the United States is at peace” from U.S. soil is prohibited under the Neutrality Act, which dates back to George Washington’s presidency.</p>
<p>America is “at peace” with the Gambia—here’s <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/9364837@N06/14653774228">Jammeh with the Obamas</a> at the White House during the U.S.-Africa summit last summer—but relations are pretty strained at the moment. The U.S. has been <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/12/yahya-jammeh-thegambiahumanrightsdemocracy.html">slower than some other countries</a> to impose consequences on the Gambian government for its human rights abuses, which include a recent law imposing life sentences for “aggravated homosexuality,” but in late December, the U.S. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-usa-africa-trade-idUSKBN0K11RH20141223">dropped the Gambia</a>, along with South Sudan, from a program giving African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets. After the coup attempt, a State Department spokesman made clear that the U.S. “strongly condemns any attempt to seize power through extra-constitutional means,” but even with these two in jail, Jammeh probably won’t be convinced.</p>
<p>He also probably won't appreciate the historical irony in a former U.S. Army soldier trying to overthrow him. Jammeh himself took power in a coup led by junior army officers in 1994, <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/28/trained-in-the-u-s-a/">shortly after he attended a training course</a> at Fort McClellan in Alabama. &nbsp;</p>Mon, 05 Jan 2015 23:13:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/two_americans_charged_in_ill_conceived_plot_to_overthrow_the_dictator_of.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-05T23:13:11ZNews and PoliticsTwo Americans Charged in Ill-Conceived Plot to Overthrow the Dictator of the Gambia236150105002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/two_americans_charged_in_ill_conceived_plot_to_overthrow_the_dictator_of.htmlfalsefalsefalseTwo Americans Charged in Ill-Conceived Plot to Overthrow the Dictator of the GambiaTwo Americans Charged in Ill-Conceived Plot to Overthrow the Dictator of the GambiaPhoto by Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty ImagesGambian President Yahya Jammeh arrives at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 6, 2013.Saudi Arabia’s Succession Time Bombhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/saudi_king_abdullah_hospitalized_the_king_is_very_old_his_successors_are.html
<p>On Monday, Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz al-Saud <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/saudi-crown-prince-assures-cabinet-on-king-abdullah-s-health.html">reassured the country’s Cabinet</a> about the health of King Abdullah, who has been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/03/world/middleeast/saudi-king-abdullah-is-hospitalized-with-pneumonia.html?_r=0">hospitalized for almost a week</a> and diagnosed with pneumonia, but rumors that the 90-year-old king is on his deathbed are still swirling online.</p>
<p>Rumors of Abdullah’s death have been greatly exaggerated before, and I know nothing more than that he is old and ill, but one thing is certain: Saudi Arabia is an increasingly creaky gerontocracy.</p>
<p>Since the first king of modern Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz, died in 1953, the country has been ruled by five of his sons in roughly descending age order. There were quite a few options available: Abdulaziz, who cemented alliances with tribal leaders by marrying their daughters, fathered <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saud/tree/">45 sons by at least 22 wives</a> as well as an unknown number of daughters.</p>
<p>But the first generation of sons is getting up there in years. Salman, who is next in line for the throne and is thought to be Abdulaziz’s 25<sup>th</sup> son, is 79. In May, Abdullah <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/saudi-arabia-appoints-prince-muqrin-as-second-crown-prince.html">took the unprecedented step</a> of naming his youngest brother, Prince Muqrin, as deputy heir, making him second in line for the throne. The choice, which leapfrogged some older brothers, reportedly <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/appointment-of-deputy-heir-to-throne-stirs-controversy-in-saudi-arabia/2014/05/26/1397be64-53cd-4a9c-b3f9-78c904abee92_story.html">prompted some grumbling</a> among palace insiders over the fact that Muqrin’s mother was a Yemeni concubine who was never formally married to Abdulaziz. But he’s a close adviser to Abdullah, has diplomatic experience, and at 69, is a spring chicken by House of Saud standards.</p>
<p>Sooner or later, of course, the crown will have to move to the next generation. At that point, things may get a little dicey. Under Saudi succession law, the king has to be a male descendant of Abdulaziz, but beyond that, the incumbent king has wide latitude to determine his successor. Given that many of the brothers took after Dad or even exceeded him—King Saud, the second king, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saud/tree/">had 53 sons</a>—there are now thousands of these descendants, many of whom have senior government positions, and the potential for palace intrigue is high.</p>
<p>In the meantime, whoever sits on the throne will have his hands full, as the coming years have the potential to be among the most transformative in the nation’s history. The country’s longtime dominance of global oil markets is being challenged by new projects in Africa, the United States, and the Arctic, and the government is now pursuing a risky strategy of <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-23/oil-saudi-arabias-risky-price-play">keeping oil prices low</a> to discourage new exploration and preserve its market share. (This has the added benefit of making life miserable for petrostates Russia and Iran, opponents of Saudi Arabia in the proxy war over Syria, which has those governments smelling a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.html">Washington-Riyadh conspiracy</a>.)&nbsp;</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia’s traditionally rock-solid relationship with the United States has also been tested by disagreements over Egypt, Syria, and the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran. The Saudis, skeptical that their Iranian rivals will adhere to a nuclear deal and wary of the prospect of a U.S.-Iranian rapproachment, have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/11/25/iran_nuclear_deal_will_saudi_arabia_now_seek_a_nuclear_program_of_its_own.html">dropped vague hints</a> about pursuing a nuclear program of their own.</p>
<p>There’s more: Saudi Arabia avoided the popular uprisings of the Arab Spring, for the most part, though the authorities have been <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/11/18/sectarianism-comes-back-to-bite-saudi-arabia/">cracking down hard</a> on the slightest hints of political organizing among the country’s Shiite minority. There are also growing fears that Saudi Arabia, one of the leading backers of the rebellion against Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, could <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudis-fighting-to-stop-the-spread-of-isis-across-their-border/">become a target</a> of that rebellion’s unwelcome offshoot, ISIS. Just Monday, three Saudi border guards were <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-mideast-crisis-saudi-idUSKBN0KE0G420150105">killed by militants</a> on the Iraqi border. No group has yet claimed responsibility, but one analyst told Reuters that it was likely “the first attack by Islamic State itself against&nbsp;Saudi Arabia and is a clear message after&nbsp;Saudi Arabia&nbsp;entered the international coalition against it.&quot;</p>
<p>Salman is thought of as a conservative, which is saying something in Saudi Arabia, and Muqrin is an Abdullah loyalist, so neither man is likely to rock the boat too much when it comes to domestic reforms if they take the throne, particularly when it comes to the kingdom’s notoriously repressive gender laws. Under Abdullah, Saudi Arabia <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/flash-of-purple-reveals-saudi-progress-on-women-s-rights.html">instituted some tentative reforms</a>, such as allowing women to work in a greater number of jobs, including retail positions, and vote and run in municipal elections.&nbsp; But as demonstrated by the news last week that two women arrested for driving would be <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/saudi-women-arrested-driving-be-sent-terror-court-295611">tried in a special terrorism court</a>, change only goes so far. Saudi Arabia is the only country on Earth where women are prohibited from driving.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether Saudis—both women and men—will continue to put up with the glacial pace of political reform. And whether a monarchy, facing unprecedented challenges from abroad and uncertain about its own plans and leadership for the future, will continue to be able to keep the situation under control. Once the torch is finally passed to a new generation, things will get much more uncertain.</p>Mon, 05 Jan 2015 19:19:36 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/saudi_king_abdullah_hospitalized_the_king_is_very_old_his_successors_are.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-05T19:19:36ZNews and PoliticsKing Abdullah Is Very Old. His Successors Are Also Very Old. What Will Happen When the Next Generation Takes Over Saudi Arabia?236150105001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/05/saudi_king_abdullah_hospitalized_the_king_is_very_old_his_successors_are.htmlfalsefalsefalseKing Abdullah Is Very Old. His Successors Are Also Very Old. What Will Happen When the Next Generation Takes Over Saudi Arabia?King Abdullah Is Very Old. His Successors Are Also Very Old. What Will Happen When the Next Generation Takes Over Saudi Arabia?Photo by -/AFP/Getty ImagesSaudi King Abdullah with his brother and designated successor, Prince Salman.Uncle Xi’s Astonishing Power Grabhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/02/uncle_xi_s_power_grab_how_the_chinese_president_is_cultivating_his_image.html
<p>Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-12/31/c_133890353.htm">second annual televised New Year’s Eve address</a> two days ago, establishing what seems to be a new tradition. The content of the speeches—this year, Xi told viewers that over the past 12 months, China had “pressed ahead with reform, cracked many hard nuts and introduced important reforms close to the interests of our citizens”—may be less interesting than the location: Xi’s office.</p>
<p>The public doesn’t usually get to peek inside the president’s workspace. It’s so unusual that, as <em>Shanghaiist</em> <a href="http://shanghaiist.com/2014/12/31/president-xi-office-2015-new-year-speech.php">reports</a>, Chinese media outlets and Internet users have been analyzing the d&eacute;cor of the tidy, computerless office, paying particularly close attention to the photos of family members and of his meetings with ordinary citizens placed behind him, some of which have changed since last year.</p>
<p>None of this seems particularly illuminating—stunningly, for a politician, Xi wants you to know he loves his family and cares about people like you—but these touches of humanity are notable in a Chinese politician. Since the personality cult excesses of the Mao era, the Chinese government has tended to emphasize the collective leadership of the party rather than individual leaders. A 1980 directive from the party’s central committee explicitly called for “less propaganda on individuals.” The emphasis on uniformity is such that former Premier Zhu Rongji was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-21738733">praised for his bravery</a> last year when he appeared at a party congress with gray hair. Most of his compatriots dye theirs jet-black. For up-and-coming Chinese leaders, <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-09-22/news/sns-rt-us-china-politics-bo-princeling-20130921_1_bo-xilai-wang-and-gu-gu-kailai">having a word like <em>flamboyant</em> attached to your name</a> has tended to be a liability. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>In contrast to his predecessors—the famously inexpressive Hu Jintao’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-20216496">fondness for table tennis and ballroom dancing</a> was erased from his official biography after he took over as party chief—Xi seems intent on demonstrating that he’s a real person with something of a personality. He likes to <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/china/21618882-cult-personality-growing-around-chinas-president-what-will-he-do-his-political">joke around with reporters</a> and even engages in some (mild) self-deprecation. Last year he caused <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/12/xi-jinping-eats-some-dumplings-at-a-restaurant/282719/">something of a sensation</a> by visiting a Beijing lunch counter, waiting online, and paying for his humble lunch of pork dumplings himself. He’s been depicted in an <a href="http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/chinese-leader-gets-a-cartoon-makeover/">unexpectedly playful cartoon</a>. He’s often referred to on China’s tightly controlled Internet as “Uncle Xi” or “Xi Dada.” He’s comparatively relaxed in speeches, and his aspirational catchphrase, the “<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9935609/Xi-Jinping-calls-for-a-Chinese-Dream.html">Chinese dream</a>,” is a departure from Hu’s inscrutable public pronouncements.</p>
<p>Xi’s wife, folk singer Peng Liyuan, was <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/02/13/peng-liyuan-meet-chinas-folk-song-singing-first-lady-in-waiting/">already a celebrity</a> before she became first lady and has become <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/31/peng-liyuan-best-dressed-vanity-fair-photos_n_3682344.html">something of a fashion icon</a>. Their marriage <a href="http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/25/musical-ode-to-xi-jinping-and-his-wife-goes-viral/">inspired a viral tribute song</a>, titled, “Xi Dada Loves Peng Mama.”</p>
<p>This is still pretty mild stuff compared with some other-world leaders. Don’t expect Xi to starting <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-20/golf-world-mourns-kim-jong-il/3739452">playing miraculous golf games</a> like Kim Jong-il or <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/12/worl-photo-caption-contest-shirtless-putin_n_3263512.html">posing shirtless</a> like Vladimir Putin. (For one thing, the censors <a href="http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2014/12/minitrue-lose-weight-daddy-xi/">seem a bit sensitive</a> when it comes to his weight.) The Xi appeal is also a long way from Mao badges and little red books. But a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/state-media-promoting-chinas-leader-xi-with-intensity-unseen-since-mao-era/2014/07/24/f5517d88-1247-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html">study published over the summer</a> by researchers at the University of Hong Kong found that China’s state media has mentioned Xi’s name more than twice as frequently as his predecessors during the first 18 months of their respective presidencies. According to the study, Xi has been the subject of more personalized attention than any leader since Mao and his immediate successor Hua Guofeng.</p>
<p>The emphasis on Xi as an individual is also noteworthy at a time when he is consolidating power on an unprecedented scale. <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1609789/75000-party-cadres-probed-graft-more-big-tigers-unlikely-says-analyst">As of October</a>, nearly 75,000 Communist Party members had been investigated as part of Xi’s ongoing anti-corruption probe, according to the <em>People’s Daily, </em>with 27 percent of them receiving punishment. The <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/secretive-agency-leads-most-intense-anti-corruption-effort-in-modern-chinese-history/2014/07/02/48aff932-cf68-11e3-937f-d3026234b51c_story.html">worst punishment</a> the party’s anti-corruption commission can mete out is expulsion, but if, as often happens, cases are transferred to the judicial branch, officials can receive a range of sentences&nbsp; including the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29655466">death penalty</a>.</p>
<p>Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has targeted both “flies”—low-ranking local and provincial officials who allegedly took bribes—and high-ranking “tigers.” The biggest tiger so far has been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/01/with_china_cracking_down_on_corrupt_officials_communist_party_membership.html">Zhou Yongkang</a>, a former domestic security chief thought to be untouchable until he was placed under investigation last summer. Today, Zhang Kunsheng, an assistant foreign minister, became the latest “tiger” brought down by the probe when he was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-30654253">removed from his position</a> on suspicion of having “violated discipline,&quot; a euphemism for corruption. Two <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1673033/two-chinas-princeling-generals-retire-part-president-xi-jinpings">influential generals also</a> resigned in what analysts say is a sign of Xi’s increasing control over the military.</p>
<p>Opinion among China watchers <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2014-year-in-review/analysis-chinas-xi-jinping-amasses-power-huge-corruption-crackdown-n270001">is divided</a> as to whether the campaign is motivated by a genuine concern about corruption and its impact on China’s economic growth or is cover for an old-fashioned party purge meant to consolidate power for Xi and his <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/01/30%20xi%20jinping%20inner%20circle%20li/xi%20jinping%20inner%20circle">small inner circle</a>.</p>
<p>It could very well be both. Amid the probe, Xi has also <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10444176/Chinas-Third-Plenum-Xi-Jinping-consolidates-power.html">taken steps to increase his control</a> over China’s vast foreign-policy and domestic security bureaucracies. State control over the Internet <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/china-tightens-control-over-mobile-internet-105537182.html">has been tightened</a>, including most recently, the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/12/29/gmail-blocked-china/20996633/">blocking of Gmail</a>. Foreign news organizations, including Bloomberg, which ran an investigation on Xi’s personal wealth in 2012, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/11/11/bloomberg_and_reuters_fall_afoul_of_china_the_deep_insecurity_behind_beijing.html">have been punished</a>.</p>
<p>Nearing the end of the second year of his presidency, it’s clear that Xi doesn’t plan on being an anonymous suit. He’s harnessed widespread public anger over corruption to consolidate control while carefully cultivating a public profile to match. Working in a system that normally prioritizes collective leadership, he seems intent on emphasizing personal influence. But with serious <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/china-industrial-output-slows-as-factory-halt-compounds-slowdown.html">economic</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/china-building-base-near-isles-disputed-with-japan-kyodo-says.html">military</a>, and <a href="http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-environmental-crisis/p12608">environmental</a> challenges looming, what’s less clear is what he plans on doing with it.</p>Fri, 02 Jan 2015 20:20:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/02/uncle_xi_s_power_grab_how_the_chinese_president_is_cultivating_his_image.htmlJoshua Keating2015-01-02T20:20:00ZNews and PoliticsChinese Presidents Never Show Off Their Human Sides.&nbsp;Why Is Xi?236150102001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2015/01/02/uncle_xi_s_power_grab_how_the_chinese_president_is_cultivating_his_image.htmlfalsefalsefalseChinese Presidents Never Show Off Their Human Sides.&nbsp;Why Is Xi?Chinese Presidents Never Show Off Their Human Sides.&nbsp;Why Is Xi?Photo by Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty ImagesChinese President Xi Jinping stands by national flags at the Schloss Bellevue presidential residency in Berlin on March 28, 2014.&nbsp;Palestinians Continue to Pursue Statehood. Israel Continues to Rely on the U.S. to Stop Them. &nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/31/u_n_security_council_vote_palestinians_continue_to_pursue_statehood_israel.html
<p>Back in October, when U.S. officials were literally <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/_chickenshit_u_s_officials_tells_us_what_they_really_thinking_about_benjamin.html">talking “shit</a>” about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in off-the-record quotes, there was much speculation about the future of Israel’s crucial relationship with the United States. “There is a crisis with the U.S. and we should treat it as a crisis,” <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Israel-US-ties-have-reached-crisis-point-Lapid-says-379788">fretted</a> then-Finance Minister Yair Lapid, who has since been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/02/netanyahu_israel_elections_prime_minister_wants_new_government.html">booted from Netanyahu’s Cabinet</a>.</p>
<p>But for now, regardless of what is said behind closed doors, U.S. officials still have Israel’s back in public. On Tuesday, Palestinians submitted a draft resolution to the U.N. Security Council that would have set a tight deadline for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. It <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/world/middleeast/resolution-for-palestinian-state-fails-in-security-council.html?_r=0">was defeated</a>, receiving support from only eight out of 15 members.</p>
<p>U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power, whose past criticisms of Israel were <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/17/history-controversial-comments-made-by-obama-pick-to-us-likely-in-spotlight/">a source of controversy</a> during her confirmation hearings last year, cast the U.S. vote against what she called a “deeply imbalanced” resolution. Secretary of State John Kerry, an extremely unpopular figure in Tel Aviv whose attempted intervention in last summer’s conflict in Gaza was described by a senior Israeli official as a “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/28/israel-gaza-us-ceasefire-diplomacy-criticism-kerry">strategic terror attack</a>,” <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/us-israel-un-reject-palestinian-resolution-nigeria-security-council?CMP=ema_565">worked the phones</a>, reportedly convincing Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan at the last minute to switch from supporting the resolution to abstaining, denying it the nine votes needed for passage.</p>
<p>This isn’t the first time the U.S. has gone out on a limb at the U.N. for Israel. In 2011 the U.S. cut off funding to the cultural body UNESCO after it <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/unesco-votes-to-admit-palestine-over-us-objections/2011/10/31/gIQAMleYZM_story.html">admitted Palestine</a> as a member. In 2012, 138 nations in the U.N. General Assembly voted to accord Palestine “non-member observer state” status, with just Israel, the U.S. and seven other countries voting against.</p>
<p>Tuesday’s vote total didn’t actually matter—as a permanent member of the council, the U.S. holds veto power—but getting nine votes would have been a symbolic victory for the Palestinian Authority, which in the absence of progress in negotiations, has been pursuing a strategy of confronting Israel in international organizations and seeking unilateral recognition from foreign governments. Following the vote, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas today<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/01/world/middleeast/palestinians-to-join-international-criminal-court-defying-israeli-us-warnings.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news"> signed the Rome Statute</a>, making the Palestinians members of the International Criminal Court, where they plan to charge Israel with war crimes. Israel, which is not a signatory to the statute, is extremely unlikely to cooperate with prosecutions launched in the court, and the ICC doesn’t try people in absentia. And the move could <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/jerusalem-babylon/1.591596">very well backfire</a> for the Palestinians as Palestinian officials could also face charges over attacks on Israeli civilians. Compared with the ongoing push for U.N. membership, which seems to only have upsides for the Palestinians at this point, joining the ICC is a risk.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4609884,00.html">This latest Security Council vote</a> was hardly an unambiguous victory for Israel. The U.S. and Australia were the only countries to vote against the resolution. (Australia <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-faces-palestine-vote-in-the-united-nations-security-council-20141223-12cohc.html">abstained on the 2012</a> Assembly vote, but has been <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-quietly-shifts-un-position-to-support-israeli-settlements-upsetting-palestinians-20131124-2y434.html">more vocally pro-Israel</a> since the election of Prime Minister Tony Abbott last year.) Three of the five permanent members—Russia, China, and France—voted for it. Britain, whose parliament passed a non-binding resolution in support of Palestinian statehood in October, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/world/europe/british-parliament-palestinian-state.html">abstained</a>. None of the four EU countries on the council supported Israel’s position (Luxembourg voted for the resolution, and Lithuania abstained), reflecting growing impatience in Europe with Netanyahu’s government.</p>
<p>In addition to the U.S. and Australia, Netanyahu expressed his appreciation to the governments of Nigeria and Rwanda, which had promised to abstain. “They stood by their words, and this is what tipped the scales,” he said. As Israel’s <em>YNet</em> reports, this will be seen as a vindication of a major diplomatic push by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4609884,00.html">improve Israel’s ties</a> with African governments. But all the same, this was a close one. It was unclear how Nigeria would vote until the last day. Going forward, if the composition of the council is slightly different or the U.S. is slightly less enthusiastic about lobbying on Israel’s behalf, things could easily go very differently and Israel and its primary backer could find themselves <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/what_will_the_u_s_and_israel_do_once_every_other_country_recognizes_palestine.html">even more isolated</a>. Its hardly the optimal course of action for Palestinian statehood, but it’s not as if there are many better options at the moment.&nbsp;</p>Wed, 31 Dec 2014 18:58:23 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/31/u_n_security_council_vote_palestinians_continue_to_pursue_statehood_israel.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-31T18:58:23ZNews and PoliticsPalestinians Continue to Pursue Statehood. Israel Continues to Rely on the U.S. to Stop Them. &nbsp;236141231001israelIsrael PalestineJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/31/u_n_security_council_vote_palestinians_continue_to_pursue_statehood_israel.htmlfalsefalsefalsePalestinians Continue to Pursue Statehood. Israel Continues to Rely on the U.S. to Stop Them.
&nbsp;Palestinians Continue to Pursue Statehood. Israel Continues to Rely on the U.S. to Stop Them.
&nbsp;Photo by Don Emmert/AFP/Getty ImagesMore friend than foe to Israel: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power.Who’s Afraid of Alexei Navalny?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/30/alexey_navalny_re_arrested_in_moscow_can_putin_silence_russia_s_most_prominent.html
<p>Vladimir Putin’s government, often praised by both its defenders and its <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/07/nation/la-na-tt-conservatives-admiration-for-putin-20140306">enemies</a> for its toughness and decisiveness, rarely seems more vexed and uncertain than when dealing with opposition leader Alexei Navalny.</p>
<p>Monday, in a surprising move, a Moscow court <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/world/europe/aleksei-navalny-convicted.html">suspended</a> Navalny’s three-and-a-half-year sentence on fraud charges that were widely seen as a laughably trumped-up pretext to punish him for his outspoken opposition to the Russian government. This isn’t the first time Navalny had gotten off with a warning: In July 2013 he was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23370623">freed on bail</a> after receiving a five-year sentence for embezzlement that prompted massive street protests by his supporters in Moscow. This time, however, the court didn’t just let Navalny go; it jailed his brother Oleg, a former postal worker, instead. Not only is the Russian criminal justice system blatantly being used to punish the Kremlin’s critics; courts are now apparently willing to take family members as hostages to get the point across. (The brothers are alleged to have masterminded a plot to overcharge a subsidiary of the cosmetics brand Yves Rocher for its shipping to Russia, though the French company never issued a complaint.)</p>
<p>If the intent in letting Navalny out but jailing his brother was to keep Navalny under control without turning him into a martyr, it appears to have backfired. Hundreds of demonstrators gathered despite freezing temperatures to protest Oleg’s fate in Moscow’s Manezh Square, including Navalny himself, who <a href="https://twitter.com/navalny/status/549947650490253313">showed up</a> in violation of his house arrest from his earlier conviction, apparently <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/549977891652784130">still wearing</a> his court-ordered ankle bracelet, and was quickly rearrested along with more than 100 others. The demonstrators were also met by a large crowd of counterdemonstrators, who accused Navalny’s supporters of trying to turn Manezh into a “Maidan”—a reference to the “Euromaidan” protests that toppled Ukraine’s Russian-backed government in February. Even dissident performance artists Pussy Riot, who seem to have given up their DIY punk rock aesthetic for perfume-commercial glam, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/dec/30/pussy-riot-song-protest-alexei-navalny-sentencing-video">released a new video</a> for the occasion in support of Navalny.&nbsp;</p>
<p>What is it about this 38-year-old lawyer that has given Russia’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/22/russian_peace_march_scenes_from_the_protest_and_counterprotest_in_moscow.html">recently lackluster protest movement</a> a spark, and Russia’s leaders, normally master manipulators of public opinion, such a headache? Navalny <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/04/04/net-impact">first gained a following</a> as an online muckraker, exposing corrupt officials and business leaders on his popular LiveJournal blog. In addition to his painstaking probes into powerful interests including major oil companies and ministries, he distinguished himself by being blunt. (<a href="http://seansrussiablog.org/2013/05/03/the-party-of-crooks-and-thieves/">His description</a> of the ruling United Russia party as the “party of crooks and thieves” in 2010 became a rallying cry for the anti-Putin opposition.) When major street protests broke out in late 2011 after disputed parliamentary elections, Navalny emerged as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/25/world/europe/tens-of-thousands-of-protesters-gather-in-moscow-russia.html">the most visible head of the movement</a>, organizing the marches and earning rapturous applause for speeches blasting Putin.</p>
<p>In 2012 the Russian opposition overwhelmingly <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20037209">elected him leader</a> in an informal online poll. Last year he ran against a Kremlin-backed candidate for mayor of Moscow, earning an <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kremlin-critic-alexei-navalny-has-strong-showing-in-moscow-mayoral-race-despite-loss/2013/09/09/dc9504e4-1924-11e3-a628-7e6dde8f889d_story.html">impressive 27 percent</a> of the vote. A poll last year showed him with a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/us-russia-navalny-idUSBRE93G05U20130417">nationwide name recognition</a> of 37 percent, huge given the government’s tight control over the news media.</p>
<p>Navalny describes himself as a nationalist democrat, and his ideology can be a bit difficult to place, beyond being anti-Putin. Though he has earned comparisons in the international media to figures ranging from <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/04/04/net-impact">Julian Assange</a> to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23348735">Nelson Mandela</a>, there’s a bit of Pat Buchanan mixed in there as well. Navalny has called for Russia’s liberal opposition to unite with far-left and far-right groups who share an antipathy to Putin but have very different ideas about who or what should replace him. He has unapologetically <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/aleksie_navalny_russia_nationalism_opposition/24380766.html">appeared at rallies</a> with ultranationalist, xenophobic groups. He was expelled from Russia’s largest liberal party, Yabloko, over his nationalist ties in 2007. Fellow members of the opposition have also <a href="http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/07/25/ethnic-slurs-haunt-alexey-navalny/">accused him</a> of intolerance to criticism and compared his occasionally hectoring, macho tone to that of Putin himself.&nbsp;</p>
<p>But the fact that Navalny is difficult to pigeonhole is probably a large part of his appeal: He’s a street activist and a savvy political campaigner at the same time and is just as comfortable talking to Russian nationalists as with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/opinion/how-to-punish-putin.html?_r=0">readers of the <em>New York Times</em></a><em>. </em>He’s certainly a far more dynamic figure than most of the intellectuals, spurned ex-politicians, and oligarchs who have dominated the leadership of the marginalized Russian opposition in the Putin era.</p>
<p>Still, Navalny has a long way to go if he hopes to grab more than headlines. Navalny’s case has rallied his base—mainly educated, middle-class urbanites—to come out in the cold, but opposition to Putin is still a niche issue for most Russians and despite this month’s currency collapse, the president is <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/poll-80-percent-back-putin-even-ruble-falls-050558854--finance.html">still overwhelmingly</a> popular nationwide. Navalny’s following is an irritation for the government, and it will be interesting to see what they do with him now that it’s clear he’s not going to stay quiet to protect himself and his brother. But the government has survived rounds of Moscow street protests before and will likely weather this storm as well.</p>
<p>The bigger question going forward is whether Russians will begin to blame Putin’s policies for the slumping economy and rising consumer prices. Based on recent experience, it’s far from clear <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/ruble_crash_we_overestimated_putin_before_let_s_not_underestimate_him_now.html">that they will</a>. But if Russians do start to turn on Putin, Navalny is certainly the opposition figure in the best position to capitalize. And so far, the authorities have been surprisingly incapable of shutting him down. Monday’s arrest did not help that cause. &nbsp;</p>Tue, 30 Dec 2014 21:03:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/30/alexey_navalny_re_arrested_in_moscow_can_putin_silence_russia_s_most_prominent.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-30T21:03:00ZNews and PoliticsPutin’s Strategy Backfires: The Re-Arrest of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny Only Makes Him Stronger236141230001russiademocracyJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/30/alexey_navalny_re_arrested_in_moscow_can_putin_silence_russia_s_most_prominent.htmlfalsefalsefalsePutin’s Strategy Backfires: The Re-Arrest of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny Only Makes Him StrongerPutin’s Strategy Backfires: The Re-Arrest of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny Only Makes Him Stronger1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO39660303460011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3966030346001Photo by Dmitry Serebryakov/AFP/Getty ImagesAlexei Navalny, left, gestures next to his brother and co-defendant Oleg as they attend the verdict announcement of their fraud trial at a court in Moscow on Dec. 30, 2014.&nbsp;Is America’s Longest War Really Over?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/29/u_s_combat_mission_in_afghanistan_ends_is_america_s_longest_war_really_over.html
<p>Americans have been trained not to expect triumphant treaty signings on the decks of aircraft carriers or ticker-tape parades at the end of wars anymore. But even by the diminished standards of 21<sup>st</sup>-century warfare, the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/28/the_longest_war_in_american_history_is_officially_over.html">conclusion of combat operations</a> in Afghanistan on Sunday feels awfully anticlimactic.</p>
<p>For one thing, while the president may have <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2014/12/28/obama-afghanistan-combat-operations-end-statement/20969021/">assured the public Sunday</a> that “the longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion,” that verdict comes with considerable caveats. About 13,500 international troops, 9,800 of them Americans, will remain in the country thanks to a deal reached with Afghanistan’s new government in September. These troops will serve in non-combat roles, including training Afghan security forces and assisting in counterterrorism missions. A full pullout isn’t scheduled until the end of 2016.</p>
<p>Iraq saw a similar “noncombat” transitional period in 2010 and 2011, but the line between combat and noncombat <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/08/03/whats-the-difference-between-combat-and-noncombat-troops/">isn’t always entirely clear</a>. The Taliban certainly don’t recognize the distinction, and whatever U.S. troops may intend, they can sometimes find themselves under fire. As defense scholar Andrew Krepinevich <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/washington/22combat.html">told the <em>New York Times</em></a> in 2008, “If you’re in combat, it doesn’t make any difference whether you’re an adviser: you’re risking your life. The bullets don’t have ‘adviser’ stenciled on some and ‘combat unit’ on another.”</p>
<p>That potential is very real in Afghanistan, where recent weeks have seen a growing number of increasingly brazen Taliban attacks <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-afghanistan-taliban-fighters-attack-foreign-compound-in-capital/2014/11/29/f0aef902-77d4-11e4-a755-e32227229e7b_story.html">near Kabul</a>, many of them targeting foreigners. Two <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/13/world/asia/afghanistan-violence/">American soldiers were killed</a> just two weeks ago when a NATO convoy was bombed in eastern Afghanistan. An American general was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/06/world/asia/afghanistan-attack.html">killed in an attack</a> on a U.S. base in August, the first time that has happened since the Vietnam War. He was shot by an Afghan soldier while making a routine visit to a military academy, one of a number of recent “insider” attacks against U.S. trainers.</p>
<p>It’s also not entirely clear that American soldiers are finished with more traditional combat. While Americans won’t be going out on regular patrols, a White House order issued in November <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/22/us/politics/in-secret-obama-extends-us-role-in-afghan-combat.html">authorized them</a> to carry out attacks on the Taliban in response to threats against the U.S. military or Afghan government.</p>
<p>Recent events in Iraq, where the U.S. is once again carrying out airstrikes, are also an indication that the U.S. could still return to a more obvious combat role if the situation gets out of hand and local security forces turn out not to be up to the task. The Pentagon’s own recent assessments of the preparedness of these forces <a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/us/study-current-plans-for-afghan-security-forces-risk-failure-1.268976">aren’t exactly reassuring</a>.</p>
<p>As I discussed in a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/12/the_forever_war_when_will_we_stop_using_a_september_2001_authorization_of.html">recent article</a>, the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Terrorists, the legal basis for the war in Afghanistan, is still in effect and Congress doesn’t appear to be in much hurry to rescind it or put limits on where or when the president can attack terrorists.</p>
<p>It’s not that hard to imagine a scenario in which American firepower is once again committed to fighting the Taliban in defense of a beleaguered Afghan government. Given the precedents of Syria and Iraq, it’s hard to imagine this aid taking the form of ground troops under the Obama administration, but who’s to say what approach his successor may take?</p>
<p>The only people who seem particularly enthused by this week’s milestone are the Taliban, who today <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/29/us-afghanistan-war-idUSKBN0K70UC20141229">issued a statement</a> proclaiming the “defeat” of the U.S. and its allies, saying, “ISAF rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.” Neither they, nor the American public, should be so sure that America’s longest war is really over.</p>Mon, 29 Dec 2014 20:21:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/29/u_s_combat_mission_in_afghanistan_ends_is_america_s_longest_war_really_over.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-29T20:21:00ZNews and PoliticsIs the U.S. Really Done Fighting in Afghanistan?236141229001afghanistanmilitaryinternationlJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/29/u_s_combat_mission_in_afghanistan_ends_is_america_s_longest_war_really_over.htmlfalsefalsefalseIs the U.S. Really Done Fighting in Afghanistan?Is the U.S. Really Done Fighting in Afghanistan?Photo by Shah Marai/AFP/Getty ImagesGen. John Campbell rolls up the flag of the International Security Assistance Force during a ceremony marking the end of the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan on Dec. 28, 2014.&nbsp;Colombia May Finally Be on the Verge of Peacehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/22/farc_cease_fire_announcement_will_the_rebel_group_finally_lay_down_its_arms.html
<p>In news that was slightly overshadowed by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/world/americas/us-cuba-relations.html">developments</a> in another decades-old Latin American conflict last week, Colombia’s largest guerrilla group announced a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/17/us-colombia-rebels-ceasefire-idUSKBN0JV2MC20141217">unilateral and indefinite cease-fire</a> on Wednesday, a historic step in resolving a devastating guerilla war that began in the 1960s. Coincidentally, that cease-fire resulted from a round of peace talks in Havana, and came on the same day President Obama and Raul Castro announced the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Cuba.</p>
<p>Though the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have made <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-25294482">similar announcements in the past</a>, often around Christmas or elections, only to see violence resume, this feels different. The announcement comes after the FARC’s fifth and last meeting with a <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Second-Group-of-Victims-Joins-Colombias-Peace-Talks-20140909-0047.html">delegation of representative victims</a> in Cuba, the last stage of a five-point conflict resolution plan that included agrarian reform, political participation for the FARC, ending the conflict and eradication of illicit crops. <a href="http://www.pazfarc-ep.org/index.php/noticias-comunicados-documentos-farc-ep/estado-mayor-central-emc/2338-farc-ep-decara-cese-unilateral-al-fuego-y-a-las-hostilidades-por-tiempo-indefinido">In their statement online</a>, the FARC say they believe they have “begun a definitive journey toward peace,” and that the cease-fire could turn into an armistice. It is set to start Dec. 20, so long as the the Colombian military also ceases all attacks, and that international organizations including the UN, European Union, and the Red Cross, as well as Pope Francis, ratify the agreement<a></a>.</p>
<p>President Juan Manuel Santos, who came into office in 2010 pledging to bring the nation’s long conflict with the revolutionary Marxist group to a close through negotiations, said he <a href="http://www.wradio.com.co/noticias/actualidad/santos-califico-anuncio-de-cese-el-fuego-como-rosa-con-tallo-de-espinas/20141218/nota/2557356.aspx">did not accept</a> the conditions, and that the military will continue as usual in its offensive against the guerrillas. He did call the gesture “a good first step,” comparing it to receiving a thorned rose. In the past, he has rejected calls for a bilateral cease-fire, saying these become an excuse for rebel groups to rearm and regroup, as indeed happened in the late 1990s when former president Andr&eacute;s Pastrana <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/1009029?zid=309&amp;ah=80dcf288b8561b012f603b9fd9577f0e">gave the FARC</a> a 26,000 square mile demilitarized zone in southwest Colombia.</p>
<p>A major challenge for both parties will be to keep rogue attacks from the FARC from sabotaging the cease-fire. But if the FARC keep their word, it would add credibility to their stated intentions to end the five-decade-long conflict. Skepticism about the peace talks, which first began in 2012, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/18/world/americas/president-of-colombia-halts-peace-talks-with-rebels-after-general-is-seized.html?_r=0">has been growing</a> since the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-colombia-farc-20141119-story.html">kidnapping</a> of a general by the FARC last month. The government suspended the peace talks until he was released two weeks later, and negotiations had been stalled until this week’s announcement.</p>
<p>The most <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/20/juan_manuel_santos_s_second_term_can_colombia_s_president_finally_end_the.html">difficult and controversial steps</a> in the peace process might be still to come, particularly the tricky issue of immunity for FARC members and how they will be reintegrated into Colombia’s civil and political life. &nbsp;Santos will also face strong public opposition to any major concessions to the group. Nonetheless, after half a century and more than 220,000 deaths, Wednesday’s announcement was a rare and clear sign of progress.</p>Mon, 22 Dec 2014 15:27:26 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/22/farc_cease_fire_announcement_will_the_rebel_group_finally_lay_down_its_arms.htmlJuliana Jiménez Jaramillo2014-12-22T15:27:26ZNews and PoliticsColombia May Finally Be on the Verge of Peace236141222001Juliana Jiménez JaramilloThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/22/farc_cease_fire_announcement_will_the_rebel_group_finally_lay_down_its_arms.htmlfalsefalsefalseColombia May Finally Be on the Verge of PeaceColombia May Finally Be on the Verge of PeacePhoto by GUILLERMO LEGARIA/AFP/Getty ImagesA group of soldiers observe some of the 9,517 weapons seized from the FARC and ELN guerrillas they are melted in furnaces on November 25, 2014 in Sogamoso, Colombia.&nbsp;What the Cuba Embargo Teaches Us About Sanctionshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/19/what_the_cuba_embargo_teaches_us_about_sanctions.html
<p>Defenders of the U.S. embargo on Cuba sometimes sound like the communist ideologues they’re targeting, promising that despite decades of failure, the worker’s paradise is just around the corner.</p>
<p>The <em>Washington Post</em>, for instance, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-obama-administration-extends-the-castro-regime-in-cuba-a-bailout-it-doesnt-deserve/2014/12/17/a25a15d4-860c-11e4-9534-f79a23c40e6c_story.html">argued</a> in a surprising editorial that this week’s moves by the White House to lift some of the restrictions on commerce with Cuba were an “underserved bailout” for the Castro regime. The argument is that “the outlook for the Castro regime in Cuba was growing steadily darker” due to economic distress and a growing opposition movement, and then the Obama administration gave the Castros an undeserved shot in the arm.</p>
<p>The embargo has clearly hamstrung the Cuban economy for decades, a situation likely to be worsened by the impending economic collapse of the regime’s main benefactor, Venezuela. But the goal of the embargo wasn’t to make Cuba poor. It was to topple the Castro regime. After 53 years and 10 U.S. presidents, we’ve seen enough evidence to declare that goal a failure.</p>
<p>Obama’s Cuba move provides an opportunity to reflect on the utility of U.S. economic sanctions shortly after another major international story: the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518">dramatic crash</a> of the Russian ruble.</p>
<p>The sanctions aren’t the main reason, or even one of the main reasons, for the Russian crash. Years of economic mismanagement and the dramatic fall in oil prices over the last few months are much more important factors. But that hasn’t stopped administration officials from doing <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/barack-obama-vladimir-putin-russian-economy-113626.html?ml=tb">some off-the-record gloating</a> about their role in wrecking the Russian economy. There’s some justification for this—as Michael Crowley of <em>Politico </em>writes, “key Russian lenders find themselves cut off from foreign financing at a moment of stress for major Russian businesses.” In a press conference yesterday, Vladimir Putin himself <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/reports-jailed-russian-tycoon-leaves-house-arrest-080447007.html">blamed sanctions</a> for about 25 percent of the ruble’s fall.</p>
<p>But the end of the Cuba embargo, with a Castro still in power in Havana, ought to be the source of some humility for the United States as we consider using economic pressure on another rival. Putin is still <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/poll-80-percent-back-putin-even-ruble-falls-050558854--finance.html">overwhelmingly popular</a> and continues to portray Russia as the victim of a <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/reports-jailed-russian-tycoon-leaves-house-arrest-080447007.html">Western plot to limit its power</a>. As I wrote on Tuesday, he <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/ruble_crash_we_overestimated_putin_before_let_s_not_underestimate_him_now.html">doesn’t seem like</a> he’s in a hurry to de-escalate tensions, no matter how much inflation and a stagnant economy hurt ordinary Russians.</p>
<p>The U.S. is clearly capable of inflicting economic pain on other countries, but its record of actually getting those countries to do what it wants is more mixed. According to <a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/briefs/sanctions4075.pdf">one estimate</a> from the Peterson Institute for Economics, which looked at 174 instances of U.S. sanctions between World War I and 2006, those sanctions at least partially accomplished their political goals just 34 percent of the times.</p>
<p>There are cases when sanctions are effective, but circumstances are important. Sanctions like the Cuba embargo, which aimed to foment a revolution or topple a regime, aren’t successful very often.</p>
<p>“When they do have a better track record is when you’re asking for more tangible concessions,” Daniel Drezner, a political scientist at Tufts, prolific foreign-policy blogger, and author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0521644151/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>The Sanctions Paradox</em></a>, told me<em>.</em> He points to the U.S. sanctions on Iran, which have clearly played a role in pushing Tehran to the nuclear negotiating table, and are likely more effective because it’s “clear [the Obama administration] isn’t looking for regime change.”</p>
<p>Sanctions are also more likely to work when imposed on countries that have a large and active opposition movement, such as <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/06/opponents_of_sanctions_on_south_africa_were_wrong_but_that_doesn_t_mean.html">South Africa during apartheid</a>. Otherwise, it’s easy enough for a an autocratic leader to use sanctions for propaganda purposes—to blame poor economic conditions on foreign powers, as Putin is doing today and Saddam Hussein did in the years leading up to the Gulf War.</p>
<p>Even when sanctions “work,” the effects can be fleeting. Myanmar, another go-to example of sanctions success, now <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.html">appears to be backsliding</a> on many of the human rights commitments it made during its political opening a few years ago.</p>
<p>Going forward, it could be even more difficult to impose effective sanctions given the ongoing impasse between the White House and Congress. If Obama lifts sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions, he will likely have to do so by making an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/20/us/politics/obama-sees-an-iran-deal-that-could-avoid-congress-.html?ref=world">elaborate legal end run around</a> Capitol Hill. Congressional Republicans will almost certainly <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/17/politics/us-cuba-2016-reax/">try to stymie</a> Obama’s new Cuba policy. It’s hard for sanctions to be effective if no one believes the leader who’s negotiating with them has the power to lift them.</p>
<p>Despite their limitations, sanctions remain a popular policy option. Just this week, even as he was chipping away at the half-century old embargo, Obama signed into law <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-signs-bill-sanction-venezuelan-officials-27699257">new sanctions</a> on Venezuelan officials and is expected to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102273636#.">authorize new sanctions</a> on Russia.</p>
<p>It’s possible to make the case that the Cuba embargo <em>is </em>finally working: With his political biological clock ticking, Ra&uacute;l Castro wants to put his country on <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/cuba_embargo_obama_s_motives_are_clear_but_why_does_raul_castro_want_to.html">more secure economic footing</a> ahead of what’s sure to be a fraught political transition. This will require ending Cuba’s international isolation and could push him toward further economic and political reforms.</p>
<p>But 53 years of stagnation followed by modest market reforms isn’t what John F. Kennedy had in mind in 1961. It’s time we started to be a little more realistic about what American economic pressure can achieve.</p>Fri, 19 Dec 2014 22:53:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/19/what_the_cuba_embargo_teaches_us_about_sanctions.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-19T22:53:00ZNews and PoliticsSanctions Rarely Work. Why Does America Keep Using Them?236141219001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/19/what_the_cuba_embargo_teaches_us_about_sanctions.htmlfalsefalsefalseSanctions Rarely Work. Why Does America Keep Using Them?Sanctions Rarely Work. Why Does America Keep Using Them?Photo by Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty ImagesFidel and Ra&uacute;l Castro attend the final session of the sixth Cuban Communist Party Congress, on April 19, 2011, at the Convention Palace in Havana.&nbsp;Don’t Expect Flags and Champagne in Havanahttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/18/yoani_sanchez_i_ve_been_fighting_to_end_cuba_s_isolation_for_years_this.html
<p><em>Yoani Sanchez is one of Cuba’s best-known independent journalists and director of the news site <a href="http://www.14ymedio.com/">14ymedio</a>, on which this post was <a href="http://www.14ymedio.com/englishversion/Has-D-Day-Arrived-Yoani-Sanchez_0_1690031002.html">originally published</a>. She is also the author of the book </em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1935554255/?tag=slatmaga-20">Havana Real: One Woman Fights to Tell the Truth About Cuba Today</a><em>, and received the World Press Freedom Hero award from the International Press Institute in 2010.</em></p>
<p>Wednesday was one of those days we had imagined a thousand ways, but never as it actually finally happened. We were prepared for a date on which we could celebrate the end, hug our friends who returned home, and wave a flag in the middle of the street. But D-Day is late. Instead, the events arrive in fragments, an advance here, a loss there. With no cries of “Long live free Cuba,” nor uncorked bottles. Life obscures from us this turning point that we would mark forever on our calendars.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/world/americas/us-cuba-relations.html">The announcement</a> by the governments of Cuba and the United States of the reestablishment of diplomatic relations surprised us in the midst of exhausted hopes and signs that pointed in the opposite direction. Ra&uacute;l Castro had just postponed the third round of talks with the European Union, scheduled for next month, and this Dec. 10, International Human Rights day, fell heavily on activists, as it does every year.</p>
<p>The first surprise was that, in the midst of all the official bluster and calls by the government to redouble our guard against the enemy, the Plaza of the Revolution and the White House had been in talks for 18 months–clear evidence that all this intransigence was just for show. At the same time they were telling the island’s citizens that even crossing the threshold of the U.S. Interest Section in Havana would make someone a traitor to the homeland, the leaders in their olive-green uniforms were working out agreements with Uncle Sam. The deceits of politics!</p>
<p>Both Obama’s statements, as well as Castro’s, had a hint of capitulation. The U.S. president announced a long list of moderating measures to bring the two nations closer. But he did so before the coveted and greatly demanded goals of democratization and political opening in our country have been achieved. The question of what would come first, a gesture from Havana or flexibility from Washington, has just been answered. The fig leaf of the American embargo remains, preventing the resignation from being complete.</p>
<p>Raul Castro, for his part, limited himself to announcing the new gestures from Obama and referring to the exchange of Alan Gross and an American spy for the long-awaited return of three Cuban agents held in U.S. custody. However, in <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/full-text-speech-by-cuban-president-raul-castro-on-re-establishing-us-cuba-relations/2014/12/17/45bc2f88-8616-11e4-b9b7-b8632ae73d25_story.html">his addres</a>s before the national television cameras, he gave no evidence of any agreement or compromise from the Cuban side, aside from the reestablishment of diplomatic relations. The agenda on the far side of the Florida Straits we know in detail, but the internal one remains, as it so often does, hidden and secret.</p>
<p>Still, despite the absence of public commitments on the part of Cuba, today was a political defeat for the government. Under the leadership of Fidel Castro we would have never even reached an outline of an agreement of this nature. Because the Cuban system is supported by–as one of its main pillars–the existence of a permanent rival. David can’t live without Goliath and the ideological apparatus has depended too long on this dispute.</p>
<p><strong>Do I listen to speeches or buy fish?</strong></p>
<p>In the Carlos III market in central Havana, customers were surprised midday that the big TVs were not broadcasting soccer or videoclips, but Castro’s speech and later Obama’s. The first statement caused a certain astonishment, but the second was accompanied by kisses launched toward the face of the U.S. president, particularly when he mentioned relaxing the regulations for sending remittances to Cuba and the delicate topic of telecommunications. Now and again the cry of “I LOVE…” (in English!) could be heard.</p>
<p>It is important to also say that the news had fierce competition—the arrival of fish to the rationed market, after years of absence. However, by mid-afternoon almost everyone was aware of the big news and the shared feelings were of joy, relief, hope.</p>
<p>This, however, is just the beginning. What we have yet to hear is a public timeline that commits the Cuban government to a series of gestures in support of democratization and respect for differences. We must take advantage of these announcements to extract a public promise from the government, which must include, at a minimum&nbsp;&nbsp;four consensus points&nbsp;that civil society has been developing in recent months: The release of all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience; the end of political repression; the ratification of the United Nations covenants on Civil, Political, Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and the consequent adjustment of domestic laws; and the recognition of Cuban civil society within and outside the island.</p>
<p>Extracting these commitments would begin the dismantling of totalitarianism.</p>
<p>As long as steps of this magnitude are not taken, many of us will continue to believe that the day we have longed for is still far off. So, we will keep the flags tucked away, keep the corks in the bottles, and continue to press for the final coming of D-Day.</p>
<p><em>-This post was translated by Mary Jo Porter and lightly edited for publication on </em>Slate<em>.</em></p>Thu, 18 Dec 2014 20:41:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/18/yoani_sanchez_i_ve_been_fighting_to_end_cuba_s_isolation_for_years_this.htmlYoani Sanchez2014-12-18T20:41:00ZNews and PoliticsThis Is Not How We Imagined Cuba’s Isolation Would End &nbsp;&nbsp;236141218001Yoani SanchezThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/18/yoani_sanchez_i_ve_been_fighting_to_end_cuba_s_isolation_for_years_this.htmlfalsefalsefalseThis Is Not How We Imagined Cuba’s Isolation Would End &nbsp;&nbsp;This Is Not How We Imagined Cuba’s Isolation Would End &nbsp;&nbsp;Photo by Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty ImagesLocals sit next to a poster of&nbsp;former Cuban President Fidel Castro in Havana on Dec. 18, 2014.&nbsp;Why Does Cuba Want to Re-establish Relations With the U.S.?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/cuba_embargo_obama_s_motives_are_clear_but_why_does_raul_castro_want_to.html
<p>For the Obama administration, the motivation for today’s moves to normalize relations with Cuba is clear. The embargo against Cuba is increasingly unpopular, even in parts of the Cuban-American community that long supported it, and the president has been eager to find areas of both foreign and domestic policy where he can act without cooperation from Congress. But what’s driving this move on the Cuban side?</p>
<p>For one thing, Wednesday’s prisoner exchange, involving three of the five intelligence officers convicted of espionage in Florida in 2001, was a major propaganda victory. “Getting the rest of the Cuban Five back has been a huge priority for Ra&uacute;l Castro,” Julia Sweig, director of Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told <strong><em>Slate</em></strong>. Underlining the iconic status the Cuban Five have taken on during their captivity, Castro referred to the men by their first names <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/full-text-speech-by-cuban-president-raul-castro-on-re-establishing-us-cuba-relations/2014/12/17/45bc2f88-8616-11e4-b9b7-b8632ae73d25_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost">during his speech</a> Wednesday, saying, “As Fidel promised on June 2001, when he said, ‘They shall return!’ Gerardo, Ramon, and Antonio have arrived today to our homeland.”</p>
<p>There are two more looming factors guiding Ra&uacute;l Castro’s thinking. One is that the 83-year-old leader <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/db2de628-7ed5-11e2-a792-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3MBKTQ52l">plans to step down in</a> 2018, meaning the country will not be governed by a Castro brother for the first time since 1959. This is likely to be a fraught transition for Cuba’s Communist Party. As part of what he calls the “systematic rejuvenation” of a party long led by aging veterans of the revolution, Castro <a href="http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/24/17077928-raul-castro-announces-retirement-in-2018?lite">last year replaced</a> his 82-year-old first vice president with 52-year-old Miguel D&iacute;az-Canel, making him the most likely successor. D&iacute;az-Canel, though, is a relative unknown and won’t come into power with much credibility if the party can’t deliver economic growth. The modest economic reforms made thus far, including the loosening of restrictions on private property and independent businesses, haven’t done enough, delivering just <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-06-23/cuba-downgrades-2014-gdp-forecast-to-1-dot-4-percent">1.4 percent GDP growth</a> this year due to what the country’s economy minister called “internal insufficiencies.” As Sweig put it, more dramatic steps “need to be implemented, and fast,” if Castro’s chosen successors are going to manage the transition.</p>
<p>“I do think that they’re trying to lay the groundwork for a process of change in which they can keep their scalps and guide the country toward a more sustainable political system,” Christopher Sabatini, senior policy director and chairman of the Cuba Working Group at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, told <strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em>.</em></p>
<p>The other big factor at play here is the turmoil in Venezuela. The South American nation threw the tottering Cuban economy a lifeline during the regime of Hugo Ch<em>&aacute;</em>vez, providing the island with 100,000 barrels of oil per day. Today, in the aftermath of Ch<em>&aacute;</em>vez’s death and bruised by political turmoil and the plummeting price of oil, Venezuela’s economy is in chaos and the government is on <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2014/11/12/counting-pennies-in-venezuela/">the verge of defaulting</a> on its debt. “You don’t need to be a capitalist to realize that Venezuela’s economy is in very dire straits,” said Sabatini. “It’s getting worse literally by the day. So they’re going to lose that benefactor.”</p>
<p>Add the Venezuela situation to the Castros’ advancing years and you can understand what’s driving Ra&uacute;l toward a more accommodating stance. “It would be the height of poor planning to think that those two things could happen and the country would be OK,” Sabatini said.</p>
<p>Another factor may be Fidel’s gradual retreat from politics. The 88-year-old, who is formally retired but thought to still be influential, makes <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/09/fidel-castro-public-appearance_n_4569686.html">only rare public appearances</a> these days. (Fidel, or someone writing under his name, does still <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/fidel-castro-says-mossad-behind-islamic-state/">regularly weigh in on global affairs</a> in columns for Cuba’s state newspaper.) While the official line from Havana is that there’s no daylight between the political positions of the two brothers, it does seem like the father of the revolution is either less of a factor than he used to be or has mellowed somewhat with age.</p>
<p>“I don’t see today’s version of Fidel Castro opposing this,” said Sweig. “But if we were having this conversation when Fidel was still in power—the 1998 version of Fidel Castro—it might be different.”</p>
<p>Another X factor is presumed successor D&iacute;az-Canel, who wasn’t even born at the time of the Cuban Revolution and kept pretty quiet since rising to his current position last year. “D&iacute;az-Canel is somewhat of a mystery, but there is an element of a new generation that recognizes that the country has to change,” said Sabatini. All the same, speculation about massive political transformations is probably premature. “We haven’t even gone from Stalin to Khrushchev yet,” Sabatini said, comparing such speculation to Cold War-era “Kremlinology.” And in any case, D&iacute;az-Canel certainly wouldn’t have been given his current position if Ra&uacute;l didn’t see him as a loyal communist.</p>
<p>Assuming the seemingly spry Ra&uacute;l remains healthy, he has three more years to manage the transition. Sweig said that while Cuba is unlikely to democratize anytime soon, Wednesday’s developments mean the government will take a more pragmatic approach. “I’m not talking about multiparty democracy, but I am talking about the pulling back of the Communist Party from government, the receding of ideology, the creation of a well-functioning economy and more open society,” she said. “All of that will happen better with a normal relationship with the United States.”</p>Wed, 17 Dec 2014 22:29:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/cuba_embargo_obama_s_motives_are_clear_but_why_does_raul_castro_want_to.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-17T22:29:00ZNews and PoliticsObama’s Motives Are Clear, but Why Does Cuba Want to Re-establish Relations With the U.S.?236141217002cubaforeignerspoliticsJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/cuba_embargo_obama_s_motives_are_clear_but_why_does_raul_castro_want_to.htmlfalsefalsefalseObama’s Motives Are Clear, but Why Does Cuba Want to Re-establish Relations With the U.S.?Obama’s Motives Are Clear, but Why Does Cuba Want to Re-establish Relations With the U.S.?Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesReuniting and it feels so good.The Beginning of the End of the Embargo?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/u_s_cuba_prisoner_exchange_this_could_be_the_beginning_of_the_end_of_the.html
<p>In what one longtime Cuba watcher <a href="https://twitter.com/JuliaSweig/status/545224839137878016">is calling</a> “the biggest day for U.S.-Cuban relations in 50 years,” the two governments <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ap-source-cuba-releases-us-prisoner-alan-gross/2014/12/17/e1373b5a-85f4-11e4-abcf-5a3d7b3b20b8_story.html?wpisrc=al_national">announced a prisoner exchange</a> today that removes some of the largest impediments to full diplomatic relations between the longtime adversaries. Both President Obama and Cuban President Ra&uacute;l Castro are due to make statements later today, and according to ABC News, “The White House is indicating the beginning of new talks on everything from travel restrictions to eventual lifting of the Cuban embargo in place since John F. Kennedy was president.”</p>
<p>Alan Gross, an American who was arrested and charged with “acts against the independence and territorial integrity of the state” in 2009 while attempting to deliver communications equipment to religious groups on the island as a subcontractor for USAID, has been released and is now en route back to the U.S. Gross was reportedly in poor health, and Obama had suggested earlier this month that his release would “remove an impediment to more constructive relations.”</p>
<p>(In an <a href="https://twitter.com/twIgoe/status/545222914677952512">interesting coincidence</a>, this development coincides with USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/16/usaid-administrator-rajiv-shah-to-step-down/">stepping down</a>. In addition to the Gross affair, Shah’s agency has recently been involved in a number of Keystone Kops-ish democracy-promotion efforts in Cuba, including the creation of a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/03/zunzuneo_the_u_s_government_s_bizarre_and_ill_advised_plan_to_build_a_fake.html">Twitter-like social network</a> and a campaign to <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ce2a878ea7a941fb93fe718ee6d46e9e/us-co-opted-cubas-hip-hop-scene-spark-change">infiltrate the island’s hip-hop community</a>.)</p>
<p>The U.S., meanwhile, is releasing three members of the so-called Cuban Five—a group of men convicted in 2001 for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/g2/story/0,3604,447054,00.html">attempting to spy</a> on exile groups in Miami and who have become a cause c&eacute;l&egrave;bre back home. Two of the five have already been released after serving their sentences.</p>
<p>There’s been <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21635523-barack-obama-could-ease-embargo-congress-may-slap-sanctions-venezuela-cuban">speculation for a long time now</a> that Obama, who has already eased travel restrictions on Cuban families and rules on remittances and memorably <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/10/obama_shakes_hands_with_raul_castro_let_s_all_freak_out.html">shook hands with Castro</a> at Nelson Mandela’s memorial service last year, would do something dramatic on Cuba in the remaining years of his presidency. His Democratic predecessors, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both attempted unsuccessfully to improve U.S.-Cuban relations, but there’s reason to think Obama will be more successful.</p>
<p>For one thing, support for the embargo, even among Florida voters and voters of Cuban descent, has <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/12/it_s_getting_safer_for_politicians_to_oppose_the_cuba_embargo.html">never been lower</a>. Prominent political figures, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/united-states/hillary-rodham-clinton-strategic-interests-values-hard-choices/p33101">including Hillary Clinton</a>, are feeling a lot more comfortable going on record against the embargo.</p>
<p>And while we certainly can’t say that Cuba is on the path toward democracy, Ra&uacute;l Castro’s government has carried out some meaningful reforms, including loosening rules on travel and private property. Even the country’s <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/03/19/yoani-sanchez-on-why-its-time-to-end-the-embargo/">best-known anti-Castro dissident</a>, Yoani Sanchez, thinks the embargo is now counterproductive.</p>
<p>One thing that isn’t going to change is Congress, and that will limit just how much Obama can do on Cuba. Republicans, as well as Democrats like Cuban-American <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/opinion/time-to-end-the-embargo-on-cuba.html">Sen. Robert Menendez</a>, don’t seem likely to shift on their support for the embargo anytime soon.</p>
<p>The 1996 <a href="http://www.coha.org/helms-burton-act-resurrecting-the-iron-curtain/">Helms-Burton Act</a> enshrined the embargo as U.S. law—prior to that, it had been maintained through a series of executive orders. Rep. Dan Burton, one of the sponsors of that bill, predicted it would be the “the last nail in [Castro’s] coffin.” Almost two decades later, Castro is still alive while the bill constrains U.S. foreign policy.</p>
<p>There are, though, a number of things that Obama—who is increasingly conducting his foreign policy as if <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.html">Congress doesn’t exist</a>—can do on his own.</p>
<p>As a recent <em>Economist</em> <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21635523-barack-obama-could-ease-embargo-congress-may-slap-sanctions-venezuela-cuban">column suggested</a>, Obama could instruct the State Department to remove Cuba from the state sponsors of terrorism list, on which it <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/international/302609-cuba-remains-a-state-sponsor-of-terror-despite-some-improvements">still anachronistically sits</a>. An <a href="http://www.as-coa.org/articles/seven-steps-us-president-can-take-promote-change-cuba-adapting-embargo">Americas Society/Council of the Americas report</a> from last year listed a number of other executive actions the White House could take under existing laws, including allowing U.S. businesses to buy products from non-state-controlled Cuban firms, expanding travel licenses to Cuba to include business travel, allowing American travelers to Cuba to have access to U.S. financial services, allowing the sale of telecommunications hardware to Cuba, and allowing Cuba to request assistance from the IMF and the World Bank. (Helms-Burton requires the U.S. to prevent Cuba from joining these organizations.)</p>
<p>(<strong>Update, 12:38 p.m.&nbsp;</strong>The <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/12/17/fact-sheet-charting-new-course-cuba">measures announced</a> by the White House on Wednesday include many of the steps mentioned above, including more travel licenses, allowing the export of goods to private Cuban enterprises, and the sale of communications equipment and authorizing U.S. credit and debit card use by U.S. travelers to Cuba. The State Department will also be reviewing Cuba’s state terrorism designation. More dramatically, the U.S. is re-establishing an embassy in Havana in the next few months and beginning talks on restoring full diplomatic relations. This was a lot faster and more sweeping than expected.)&nbsp;</p>
<p>After today, it’s clear that Cuba is on Obama’s agenda. The effort could still be derailed, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/10/the-1996-incident-that-made-it-nearly-impossible-to-repeal-the-cuba-embargo/381107/">as Bill Clinton’s overtures were</a> after Cuba shot down two U.S. planes in 1996. But more than likely, we’re witnessing the beginning of the end of one of the least effective foreign policy initiatives in American history.</p>Wed, 17 Dec 2014 16:19:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/u_s_cuba_prisoner_exchange_this_could_be_the_beginning_of_the_end_of_the.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-17T16:19:11ZNews and PoliticsThe Cuban Embargo Is One of the Least Effective Foreign Policy Initiatives in U.S. History236141217001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/17/u_s_cuba_prisoner_exchange_this_could_be_the_beginning_of_the_end_of_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Cuban Embargo Is One of the Least Effective Foreign Policy Initiatives in U.S. HistoryThe Cuban Embargo Is One of the Least Effective Foreign Policy Initiatives in U.S. HistoryPhoto by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images&nbsp;U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with Cuban President Raul Castro during the official memorial service for former South African President Nelson Mandela at FNB Stadium December 10, 2013 in Johannesburg, South Africa.&nbsp;Why We Need the Gory Details About Torturehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/why_we_need_the_gory_details_about_torture.html
<p>Since last week’s release of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report on the CIA’s treatment of detainees, there’s been a renewed debate over the use of the word <em>torture</em> as opposed to Orwellian euphemisms like <em>enhanced interrogation</em>. The report itself wasn’t shy about the T-word, deploying it <a href="https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/542367236787560448">more than 130 times</a>. President Obama has <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/09/obama-cia-torture-report_n_6295336.html">used it as well</a>, although his CIA director avoided it. The architects of the program were certainly concerned about the word. As I <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/what_america_learned_about_torture_from_israel_and_britain.html">noted yesterday</a>, a 2002 Justice Department memo approvingly cited a European court decision that found that techniques like stress positions and sleep deprivation were “inhuman and degrading,” but not actually torture.</p>
<p>One new poll suggests this fixation on torture semantics may be misplaced. Forty-nine percent of the respondents to a <em>Washington Post</em>-ABC poll released today agreed that “CIA treatment of suspected terrorists amounted to torture,” while 38 percent disagreed and the rest had no opinion. However, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/12/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_15085.xml?uuid=x5xKAIUYEeSrz1o9ezsguA">59 percent believe</a> that “CIA treatment of suspected terrorists was justified” with just 31 percent opposed. The only subgroups that opposed the CIA’s treatment of suspected terrorists: liberal democrats and atheists.</p>
<p>Does it matter if you include the word <em>torture</em> in the question itself? While <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/12/16/wsjnbc-poll-americans-say-cia-harsh-interrogation-acceptable/">other recent polls</a> haven’t mentioned the word at all, a recent <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/09/americans-views-on-use-of-torture-in-fighting-terrorism-have-been-mixed/">Pew survey</a> that asks flat-out whether “torture to gain important information from suspected terrorists can be justified” found a lower but still significant level of support. Americans have only grown more supportive of torture over time, with support increasing since Pew started asking this question in 2004.</p>
<p>Whether you use the word or not, Americans are OK with torture because they believe it’s effective at gaining information that couldn’t be obtained by any other means. The fact that the Senate report knocked down that argument doesn’t seem to have gotten much traction.</p>
<p>If not torture, what do Americans oppose? Things start to change when you get <em>really </em>specific. A <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/12/11/no-americans-arent-fine-with-torture-they-strongly-reject-it/">recent post</a> on the <em>Washington Post’</em>s Post Everything site by three political scientists notes that when you ask specifically about techniques like “waterboarding,” “sexual humiliation,” and “exposure to extreme heat/cold,” most Americans do oppose them. They’re less bothered by “stress positions” or “sleep deprivation,” which I would imagine is a function of the fact that people don’t understand what they are.</p>
<p>I haven’t seen polling on forced rectal feeding, the most startling interrogation technique discussed in the report, but my guess is that most people would be opposed to that as well. This is how you make the case against torture: Describe exactly what’s being done to detainees in as clear language as possible.</p>
<p>One other intriguing finding in the <em>Post</em>/ABC poll: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/12/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_15080.xml?uuid=tsvSSoUYEeSrz1o9ezsguA">Fifty-four percent</a> of Americans believe the CIA intentionally misled the White House, Congress, and the public about its activities. Despite this, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/12/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_15083.xml?uuid=wP7xtoUYEeSrz1o9ezsguA">52 percent</a> of respondents believe it was wrong to release the report. As with the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/01/21/pew_research_poll_americans_don_t_like_the_nsa_or_snowden.html">Edward Snowden revelations</a>, Americans don’t like their intelligence services lying to them, but they also don’t like being told the truth.</p>Tue, 16 Dec 2014 20:46:56 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/why_we_need_the_gory_details_about_torture.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-16T20:46:56ZNews and PoliticsAmericans Don’t Care about Torture, But They Are Against Waterboarding. Why?236141216002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/why_we_need_the_gory_details_about_torture.htmlfalsefalsefalseAmericans Don’t Care about Torture, But They Are Against Waterboarding. Why?Americans Don’t Care about Torture, But They Are Against Waterboarding. Why?Photo by Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images“Waterboarding” by artist Steve Lazarides is pictured during a photocall for the exhibition <em>Brutal</em> at the Lazarides Gallery in London, on Oct. 14, 2013.&nbsp;So Maybe Putin Wasn’t an Omnipotent Supergeniushttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/ruble_crash_we_overestimated_putin_before_let_s_not_underestimate_him_now.html
<p>Earlier this year, when Russian President Vladimir Putin was racking up an impressive run of geopolitical victories, the conventional wisdom among American pundits was that the president was a shrewd and calculating strategist, outwitting his Western rivals at every turn. This view was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/24/putin_s_setback_in_ukraine_the_russian_leader_is_not_all_powerful.html">always flawed</a>. Putin’s biggest political victory, the now seemingly irreversible seizure of Crimea, was made possible by the chaos following the overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government, which should be counted as a much more significant defeat.</p>
<p>Now that the ruble has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518">gone into a free fall</a>, losing 22 percent of its value against the dollar this month and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/?tid=pm_pop">11 percent Monday alone</a> despite the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/to-halt-crisis-russia-central-bank-hikes-interest-rates-as-ruble-falls/2014/12/16/9ebb1610-4c9e-45bd-9297-475b0d3878cc_story.html">government hiking interest rates</a>, a <a href="https://twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/544636658453606400">number</a> of <a href="https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/544672582356975617">commentators</a> are <a href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/544720356884246529">pointing</a> out that Putin isn’t looking so smart today.</p>
<p>Russia <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/to-halt-crisis-russia-central-bank-hikes-interest-rates-as-ruble-falls/2014/12/16/9ebb1610-4c9e-45bd-9297-475b0d3878cc_story.html">now expects</a> a recession and 10 percent inflation this year, and the country’s deputy prime minister said Tuesday that poverty will “inevitably rise” as a result. Putin’s gamble, that Russia could weather the impact of Western sanctions resulting from its military incursions into Ukraine, now doesn’t appear very shrewd. “Talk of a new cold war, comparisons between Putin’s Russia and the USSR, look a bit silly now, don’t they?” <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/putin-on-the-fritz/?smid=tw-share">writes</a> the <em>New York Times’ </em>Paul Krugman.</p>
<p>But just as Putin’s strategic acumen was overestimated before, there’s a danger of underestimating it now. Putin’s foreign policy strength has never been has ability to look three steps ahead like some sort of geopolitical chessmaster. It’s been his ruthlessness in moving quickly to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves: snatching a territorial consolation prize from the jaws of defeat in Ukraine, swooping in to negotiate a deal over Syria’s chemical weapons when the Obama administration was looking for any excuse not to launch airstrikes, and taking full propaganda advantage of Edward Snowden when he literally appeared on Russia’s doorstep. It’s unlikely that Putin anticipated any of these situations, but he did a great job playing the cards he was dealt.</p>
<p>This time, Putin’s luck ran out. The fundamentals of the Russian economy <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/08/andrei_nechayev_interview_the_russian_economy_is_in_big_trouble_and_it_s.html">weren’t strong to begin with</a> and Western sanctions were always going to pose a challenge. But even the almighty Putin couldn’t have anticipated that all of this would coincide with a 40 percent drop in the price of oil, which, along with gas, the Russian government depends on for about half of its budget.</p>
<p>But Putin has survived crises before. So far, the economic crisis <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/17/russia_s_economy_s_in_trouble_but_that_doesn_t_mean_russians_will_turn_on.html">hasn’t put too much of a dent</a> in the president’s popularity. His <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/putin_describes_crimea_as_russia_s_temple_mount_in_annual_address.html">recent annual televised address</a> to the national assembly was heavy on the nationalist themes that have served him well throughout the Ukraine crisis and placed blame for inflation vaguely on “speculators.” With Russia’s state-controlled media <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.html">taking it as a given</a> that low oil prices are the result of a U.S.-Saudi plot to weaken Russia and Iran, it remains to be seen whether Russians will blame the government for the economic turmoil ahead.</p>
<p>Now that international sanctions—with a big assist from the oil markets—are having the desired effect, Western governments may be hoping that Russia will become more compliant, particularly in Ukraine, which just had its <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/16/us-ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-idUSKBN0JU1CC20141216">first night without a shooting</a> in months.</p>
<p>This may not be the case. Putin can’t do much of anything about oil prices,and any steps to cooperate with NATO to secure sanctions relief will make him look weak. There’s a fair chance, then, that he may actually escalate tensions to get back the rally-round-the-flag effect that has sustained his popularity through the Ukraine crisis. Russian jets continue to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/why_do_russian_jets_keep_buzzing_european_countries.html">buzz the airspace</a> of NATO countries, and the military recently <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/russia-carried-snap-military-drills-kaliningrad-region-071257252.html">carried out snap drills</a> in Russia’s westernmost region, Kaliningrad. This doesn’t look like a leader on the verge of de-escalating.</p>Tue, 16 Dec 2014 16:22:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/ruble_crash_we_overestimated_putin_before_let_s_not_underestimate_him_now.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-16T16:22:00ZNews and PoliticsWe Overestimated Putin Before. Let’s Not Underestimate Him Now.&nbsp;236141216001russiaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/16/ruble_crash_we_overestimated_putin_before_let_s_not_underestimate_him_now.htmlfalsefalsefalseWe Overestimated Putin Before. Let’s Not Underestimate Him Now.&nbsp;We Overestimated Putin Before. Let’s Not Underestimate Him Now.&nbsp;Photo by Findlay Kember/AFP/Getty ImagesDo I look concerned?What America Learned About Torture From Israel and Britainhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/what_america_learned_about_torture_from_israel_and_britain.html
<p>One striking aspect of the debate over Bush-era interrogation methods has been the willingness of the program’s defenders to support methods that are routinely described as torture when employed by other countries. “In [Dick] Cheney’s world, nothing Americans do can be called torture, because we are not al-Qaida and we are not the Japanese in the Second World War (whom we prosecuted for waterboarding) and we are not ISIS,” <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/torture-dick-cheney-minute">writes the <em>New Yorker</em>’s Amy Davidson</a>. She continues: “[I]t was not really the Justice Department that ‘blessed,’ or rather transubstantiated, torture; it was our American-ness.”</p>
<p>The United States, though, is not the only democracy to have tortured. In fact, in justifying the interrogation program, its architects drew on the experiences of two of America’s closest allies.</p>
<p>As was widely reported in the Israeli media, last week’s Senate report notes that the CIA used Israel as a precedent to justify its use of coercive interrogation tactics. The <em>Jerusalem Post </em><a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/US-Senate-Report-CIA-used-Israeli-courts-as-precedent-to-justify-torture-384237">reports</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
On November 26, 2001, soon after the September 11 attacks on the U.S., the CIA general counsel wrote that “the Israeli example” could serve as “a possible basis for arguing ... regarding terrorist detainees that ‘torture was necessary to prevent imminent, significant, physical harm to persons, where there is no other available means to prevent the harm.’ ” The internal memorandum also said that “states may be very unwilling to call the U.S. to task for torture when it resulted in saving thousands of lives.”
</blockquote>
<p>The use of torture in fighting terrorism has been a recurring subject of debate in Israel. In 1987, following the deaths of two Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli government commission led by former Supreme Court justice Moshe Landau found that in some extraordinary cases “the exertion of a moderate degree of physical pressure cannot be avoided.”&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.btselem.org/torture/background">According to the human rights group B’Tselem,</a> Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, used physical force against at least 850 persons per year in the years following the Landau Commission, usually not in the “ticking bomb” scenarios the report had used to justify such methods. These methods include depriving prisoners of sleep, forcing them into “stress positions,” threatening them, subjecting them to extreme temperatures, and blasting them with loud music—all methods that would later become commonplace in CIA interrogations.</p>
<p>In 1999, the Israeli Supreme Court <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/439554.stm">banned the Shin Bet</a> from using Landau-approved techniques, but still allowed interrogators to invoke the “defense of necessity” if they were later faced with prosecution. The agency <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44664-2004Jun15_2.html">returned to coercive interrogations</a> soon after, when the Second Intifada broke out. While such tactics are routinely condemned by human rights groups, most Israelis, like <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-torture-report-public-opinion/">most Americans</a>, believe they are justified to prevent terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>But even some who defend Israel’s interrogation practices argue that the U.S. drew the wrong lessons from the country's experience. John Schindler, a former NSA employee and historian whose take on the Senate report was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/10/senate_report_critique_intelligence_commentator_torture_opponent_argues.html">cited by my colleague</a> Ben Mathis-Lilley last week, <a href="http://20committee.com/2014/12/10/cia-torture-an-insiders-view/">argues</a> that while Shin Bet employs “what outsiders would term torture on occasion, those conditions are tightly controlled by legal authorities.” Interrogators are also highly trained and fluent in Arabic.</p>
<p>In contrast, Schindler writes, the U.S. intelligence community “opted for an ad hoc, somewhat fly-by-night interrogation program, lacking in expertise or language skills, and botched the job—to the surprise only of those who have never seen U.S. intelligence in action.”</p>
<p>Israel isn’t the only country whose experience was examined by the Bush administration’s lawyers. In <a href="http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/12/09/paper-trail-from-northern-irelands-hooded-men-to-cias-global-torture/">a post</a> on the Irish political blog <em>Slugger O’Toole</em>, Patrick Corrigan, Northern Ireland program director for Amnesty International, writes that in the now infamous 2002 “torture memos” which advised the CIA and the administration on the legality of “enhanced” interrogation, assistant attorney general Jay Bybee quoted from a European Court of Human Rights decision on Britain’s treatment of prisoners in Northern Ireland during the 1970s.</p>
<p>During the Troubles, British security forces developed what became known as the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_techniques">five techniques</a>” for interrogations of IRA suspects: hooding, “wall-standing” (a kind of stress position), subjection to noise, sleep deprivation, and denial of food and water. When the techniques were made public in 1972, they were banned for future interrogations by Prime Minister Edward Heath. Shortly afterward, the Irish government filed a case against Britain in international court against Britain alleging torture in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights. In 1978, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that the interrogation methods amounted to “inhuman and degrading” treatment, but not torture.</p>
<p>Following a recent Irish TV documentary which alleged that the British government had misled the investigation, the Irish government recently announced plans to ask the European Court of Human Rights to <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-asks-european-court-to-revise-hooded-men-ruling-1.2022790">revise its judgment</a>.</p>
<p>The 2002 memos used this case to bolster the argument that U.S. interrogations did not constitute torture. Variations on all of the five techniques were employed by the CIA during the period covered by the Senate’s report. Bybee apparently ignored the fact that though the British government denied “torture,” it still found the techniques illegal under British law.</p>
<p>Proponents of the U.S. interrogation program took from these examples that government can get away with an awful lot of mistreatment without having to call it “torture.” Israel’s experience is also a reminder that security forces will find ways to exploit the loopholes left open in legal judgments. This is concerning given that the Obama administration is reluctant to launch any prosecutions program and that its legal position on torture leaves <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/obama_administration_clarifies_stance_on_convention_against_torture_is_the.html">some troubling ambiguity</a> on the topic of “black site” prisons. And the British interrogations, still being argued in court four decades later, suggest that even if the U.S. is completely finished with torture, the controversy over&nbsp;the program is far from over.</p>Mon, 15 Dec 2014 20:48:53 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/what_america_learned_about_torture_from_israel_and_britain.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-15T20:48:53ZNews and PoliticsWhat America Learned About Torture From Israel and Britain236141215002TortureisraelbritainJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/what_america_learned_about_torture_from_israel_and_britain.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhat America Learned About Torture From Israel and BritainWhat America Learned About Torture From Israel and BritainPhoto by TAL COHEN/AFP/Getty ImagesAn Israeli activist demonstrates one of the techniques used to extract information from inmates in Israeli prisons to mark Saturday's international day for victims of torture in Tel Aviv, 26 June 2004.&nbsp;Australia’s Terrorism Problemhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/sydney_hostage_crisis_how_serious_is_australi_s_terrorism_problem.html
<p>Police have now stormed the downtown Sydney caf&eacute; where a lone gunman <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/us-australia-security-idUSKBN0JS0WX20141215">took more than a dozen hostages</a>. We still don’t know much about the identities or motivations of the attacker beyond the fact that he forced his hostages to display a black flag with white Arabic script resembling those used by al-Qaida and ISIS.</p>
<p>Given the prominent role Australians have played in the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria, it seems reasonable to speculate that there may be a link. In June it was reported that there were <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/150-australians-fighting-with-extremists-in-iraq-and-syria/5535018">150 Australians</a> fighting with extremist groups in Iraq and Syria, making it the largest per-capita contributor of foreign fighters. In August an Australian jihadist in Syria with a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australian-jihadist-who-tweeted-gruesome-photo-has-long-history-of-mental-illness/2014/08/29/94efff84-2d70-11e4-994d-202962a9150c_story.html">history of mental illness</a> received international attention for posting a photo online showing his <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/12/world/asia/australia-boy-severed-head-syria/">7-year-old son holding a severed head</a>.</p>
<p>Australia has already seen two instances of confirmed ISIS-related violence—one attempted, one successful. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/150-australians-fighting-with-extremists-in-iraq-and-syria/5535018">In September</a>, Mohammad Ali Baryalei, a former nightclub bouncer from Sydney who had moved to Syria to fight with the Islamic State, phoned a friend back home asking him to carry out a beheading on camera as a “demonstration.” The call was intercepted, and the friend was arrested. Several days later, an 18-year-old “known terror suspect” who had been spotted carrying the ISIS flag at a shopping center stabbed two counterterrorism officers in Melbourne before he was shot and killed. Following the latter attack, hundreds of police officers raided dozens of homes in Sydney and Brisbane, arresting 15 people in <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/09/18/15-arrested-one-charged-terror-raids">the largest counterterrorism raids in</a> the country’s history. Allegations of police abuses during the raids lead to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/muslim-community-apprehension-after-raids-leads-to-snap-protest-20140918-10iupz.html">protests in the Muslim community</a>.</p>
<p>Australia has been a part of the international military coalition fighting ISIS since October, and federal police have <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/14867955/stay-out-of-syria-war-say-police/">warned the country’s citizens</a> to stay out of the conflict. Echoing the concerns other Western governments, Australian officials <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/150-australians-fighting-with-extremists-in-iraq-and-syria/5535018">have warned</a> of radicalized fighters returning home from Syria to carry out attacks in their own country. So far, though, we haven’t seen many signs of this. The Baryalei plot, which never got very far, was an exception to the rule in that someone in Syria was in contact with a potential attacker back home. The Melbourne stabber, the two men who <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.html">carried out attacks</a> in Canada in October, and Mehdi Nemmouche, the ISIS vet who shot three people at the Jewish museum in Brussels last May, are all believed to have acted on their own with little to no coordination from ISIS central.</p>
<p>The suspect in this case was an Iranian-born self-styled cleric and “spiritual healer” named <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30484419">Man Haron Monis</a> who was apparently well-known to police for having sent offensive letters to the families of soldiers killed in Afghanistan. He was on bail for being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife and was facing multiple sexual assault charges. Monis, who according to his website used to be Shia but converted, had no known ties to terrorist groups and seems to have acted alone.</p>
<p>Adam Dolnik, a terrorism researcher at the University of Wollongong in New South Wales, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/world/asia/sydney-australia-hostages.html?_r=0">speculated</a> to the <em>New York Times </em>that the attacker is likely “a lone wolf sympathetic to the issues of the Islamic State and the goal of jihad more generally” or represents a case of “psychopathology in search of a cause.”</p>
<p>A reasonable case could be made that this describes most terrorists, but the point here is that this appears to be a solo effort and not a very well-planned one. The good news is that these lone-wolf attackers are generally much less effective that organized plots. The bad news is that they are much harder to suss out and prevent in advance.</p>Mon, 15 Dec 2014 18:26:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/sydney_hostage_crisis_how_serious_is_australi_s_terrorism_problem.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-15T18:26:00ZNews and PoliticsHow Serious Is Australia’s Terrorism Problem?236141215001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/15/sydney_hostage_crisis_how_serious_is_australi_s_terrorism_problem.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow Serious Is Australia’s Terrorism Problem?How Serious Is Australia’s Terrorism Problem?Photo by Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty ImagesA hostage runs toward police from a caf&eacute; in the central business district of Sydney on Dec. 15, 2014.&nbsp;Al-Qaida Is No Longer the Worldwide Leader in Terrorhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/al_qaida_is_no_longer_the_worldwide_leader_in_terror.html
<p>There were 664 lethal jihadist terrorist attacks resulting in 5,042 deaths this November. That’s according to a <a href="http://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/ICSR-REPORT-The-New-Jihadism-A-Global-Snapshot.pdf">report released today</a> by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at King’s College London, in conjunction with the BBC.</p>
<p>Confirming the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/does_the_world_have_a_terrorism_problem_or_a_civil_war_problem.html">findings of other surveys</a>, the report found that the vast majority of attacks take place in just a handful countries—namely Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Pakistan. A little more than half the victims are civilians. The vast majority of those civilians are Muslims.</p>
<p>The report doesn’t provide much context regarding whether November was an unusual month—the choice was “determined by convenience and BBC scheduling.” Rather, it aims to provide a “global snapshot” of the current level of jihadist activity.</p>
<p>Just as terrorism is concentrated in a few countries, a very small number of groups are responsible for the vast majority of these deaths. Only 17 groups out of the 50 the authors were monitoring had any activity during this period, and just eight of them carried out 97 percent of the attacks.</p>
<p>One of the report’s key findings is that, as the report's author, Peter Neumann of ICSR, puts it, “al-Qaida and jihadism are no longer synonymous (if they ever were).” Attacks by the two deadliest groups during this period, ISIS and Nigeria’s Boko Haram, accounted for 44 and 16 percent of all deaths respectively. This means that 60 percent of the deaths (and 51 percent of the attacks) were the work of groups with no formal ties to al-Qaida. Neumann writes, “They represent a new breed of jihadist groups which thrive on religious and sectarian fault lines, are state builders, and seem to have fewer restraints in using excessive forms of violence.”</p>
<p>The Taliban, allied with al-Qaida but separate from it, was third on the list. Al-Qaida’s affiliates aren’t out of the picture entirely—al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, al-Shabaab, and Jabhat al-Nusra accounted for a fifth of the deaths—but they don’t have the central role in international terrorism that they once did.</p>
<p>This ought to be another indication that a 13-year-old document aimed at punishing the perpetrators of 9/11 is <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/12/the_forever_war_when_will_we_stop_using_a_september_2001_authorization_of.html">no longer the best framework</a> for America’s global counterterrorism efforts. Back in 2001, it made sense to think of al-Qaida as the central hub of global terrorism. That’s not the case in 2014.</p>Thu, 11 Dec 2014 21:09:09 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/al_qaida_is_no_longer_the_worldwide_leader_in_terror.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-11T21:09:09ZNews and PoliticsAl-Qaida Is No Longer the Worldwide Leader in Terror236141211002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/al_qaida_is_no_longer_the_worldwide_leader_in_terror.htmlfalsefalsefalseAl-Qaida Is No Longer the Worldwide Leader in TerrorAl-Qaida Is No Longer the Worldwide Leader in TerrorPhoto by RAMI AL-SAYED/AFP/Getty ImagesA fighter from the al-Qaida' affiliate in Syra, Jabhat al-Nusra, carries the group's flag on September 22, 2014.&nbsp;Why Hasn’t the Torture Report Sparked Anti-American Protests?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/why_hasn_t_the_torture_report_sparked_anti_american_protests.html
<p>Prior to the release of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s CIA torture report this week, there were widespread fears that it would incite violence. “Foreign leaders have approached the government and said, ‘You do this, this will cause violence and deaths.’ Our own intelligence community has assessed that this will cause violence and deaths,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/08/house-intelligence-chairman-rogers-report-will-spur-attacks/">said on CNN</a>. Embassies around the world <a href="http://www.dawn.com/news/1149962/americans-in-pakistan-afghanistan-warned-after-cia-torture-report">warned U.S. citizens</a> to prepare for anti-American protests.</p>
<p>But two days after the report’s release, the anticipated violent <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11286376/Torture-report-Jihadists-call-for-retaliation-but-no-sign-of-feared-protests.html">protests across the Muslim world don’t seem to have materialized</a>. It may be, as the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/us/politics/white-house-and-gop-clash-over-torture-report.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news">Obama administration argued</a> prior to the report’s release, that deadly protests like those seen after <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12949975">the burning of a Koran</a> in Florida in 2011 or upon the release of the “<a href="http://theweek.com/article/index/233439/the-worldwide-protests-against-anti-islam-film-innocence-of-muslims-by-the-numbers">Innocence of Muslims” video</a> in 2012 “tend to be fueled more by perceived attacks against Islam as a religion than by violence against individual Muslims.”</p>
<p>Or, coming after a decade of revelations about Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, and the CIA’s black sites, it may be that nothing in the report was really that surprising. As Brookings scholar Shadi Hamid <a href="http://www.concordmonitor.com/news/politics/14763484-95/bitter-mideast-greets-us-torture-report-with-shrug">tells the Associated Press</a>, discussing reaction in the Middle East, “Arabs were angry about U.S. torture in Iraq 10 years ago, so if anything this seems rather quaint, that the Americans are having a real public debate about this 10 years after the fact. … This seems like run-of-the-mill stuff in the sense that this is what people expect of the U.S. They would be surprised if it wasn’t the case, and that’s a product of years of deep anti-American sentiment.”</p>
<p>Jihadist message boards have apparently lit up with <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11286376/Torture-report-Jihadists-call-for-retaliation-but-no-sign-of-feared-protests.html">calls for retaliation</a> against the United States, but ISIS and al-Qaida sympathizers didn’t lack for anti-American grievances before Tuesday.</p>
<p>As I <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/10/senate_torture_report_the_u_s_isn_t_prosecuting_anyone_for_enhanced_interrogation.html">noted yesterday</a>, a number of governments, particularly those usually on the receiving end of human rights complaints, have been playing up the news. The Russian government and media, who were surprisingly quiet in the immediate wake of the report, have since joined in to condemn the “gross, systemic human rights violations by the American authorities.”</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/maxboot/status/543038176429109248">Some critics</a> have used these denunciations by Russia, China, and other countries to accuse the committee of handing America’s rivals a propaganda victory. But again, it’s not as if the Russian media would be playing footsie with the U.S. if the report hadn’t come out.</p>
<p>While there are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/09/world/cia-torture-report-key-points.html">some new revelations</a> in the report, the specific information it revealed is less important than what it signified: a government coming to grips with its past conduct. One big reason that the charges of hypocrisy coming from the world’s dictatorships don’t stick is that unlike those governments, the U.S.—albeit grudgingly—admits its past misdeeds.</p>Thu, 11 Dec 2014 17:13:54 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/why_hasn_t_the_torture_report_sparked_anti_american_protests.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-11T17:13:54ZNews and PoliticsWhy Hasn’t the Torture Report Sparked Anti-American Protests?236141211001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/11/why_hasn_t_the_torture_report_sparked_anti_american_protests.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Hasn’t the Torture Report Sparked Anti-American Protests?Why Hasn’t the Torture Report Sparked Anti-American Protests?Photo by RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty ImagesProtesters in Karachi, Pakistan set fire to an American flag during a protest over burning of Korans in Afghanistan on March 2, 2012.&nbsp;The World Reacts to the Torture Reporthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/10/senate_torture_report_the_u_s_isn_t_prosecuting_anyone_for_enhanced_interrogation.html
<p>Following Tuesday’s release of a long-awaited Senate report on Bush-era interrogation practices, countries that are usually on the receiving end of human rights criticism were quick to pounce.</p>
<p>“China has consistently opposed torture. We think the U.S. should reflect on that and correct related practices, to earnestly abide by and honor the regulations of international conventions,” <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-12-09/u-dot-s-dot-torture-report-just-the-start-of-justice-rights-groups-say">said</a> foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei. There are <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/tibet/torture-12072014192110.html">frequent allegations</a> of torture in Chinese jails and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/asia/china-amnesty-torture-tools/">according to Amnesty International</a>, the country is one of the leading manufacturers and exporters of torture devices.</p>
<p>KCNA, the official news agency of the North Korean government, which was accused of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26223180">systematic crimes against humanity</a> earlier this year, <a href="http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm">asked</a> “why the UNSC is turning its face from the inhuman torture practiced by the CIA.”</p>
<p>The English-language <a href="https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir">Twitter account</a> of Iran’s Supreme Leader has also been active, featuring a stream of criticism of the “corrupt capitalist regime” using both the #torturereport and #ferguson hashtags:</p>
<p>One exception to this parade of criticism: The <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/10/cia-torture-report-global-reaction-roundup"><em>Guardian</em> notes</a> that Russia’s state-sponsored media, which normally jumps on opportunities to highlight American hypocrisy, has been unexpectedly quiet.</p>
<p>Leaders of allied governments, including Britain and Germany, <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-12-09/u-dot-s-dot-torture-report-just-the-start-of-justice-rights-groups-say">also condemned</a> the activities in the report but praised the U.S. for releasing it.</p>
<p>The most interesting countries to watch are those whose governments hosted the “black site” facilities where the torture took place—most significantly, Afghanistan, Poland, and Thailand. The <a href="http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/study2014/sscistudy1.pdf">500-page summary</a> of the 6,000 page document that was released on Tuesday redacts the names of these countries, but there’s enough information in the document when combined with previously published reports to piece together which countries are being discussed (and media outlets <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/10/world/senate-intelligence-committee-cia-torture-report.html">haven’t been shy</a> about reporting on them by name). U.S. embassies <a href="http://www.dawn.com/news/1149962/americans-in-pakistan-afghanistan-warned-after-cia-torture-report">have warned U.S. citizens</a> in Afghanistan, Thailand, and Pakistan to beware of anti-American protests and violence, which so far don’t seem to have broken out.</p>
<p>Afghanistan hosted the facility referred to in the report as COBALT, described by one interrogator as a “dungeon,” where one detainee died in custody. At this facility, according to the Senate report, detainees were “kept in complete darkness and constantly shackled in isolated cells with loud noise or music and only a bucket to use for human waste.” “COBALT was itself an enhanced interrogation technique,” said one CIA officer.</p>
<p>Afghanistan’s recently elected President Ashraf Ghani <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/usa-cia-torture-ghani-idUSL3N0TU42U20141210">delivered a televised address</a> to respond to the report, saying that the practices described violate “all accepted norms of human rights in the world.” He vowed to investigate the practices and reminded viewers that starting next year, when the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan formally ends, Americans will no longer be handling detainees in the country. Afghanistan has also been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/world/asia/us-still-sending-detainees-to-afghan-jails-rights-groups-say.html">accused of torture</a> at its own prisons.</p>
<p>Thailand was the country where the CIA “enhanced interrogation” program began with the waterboarding of detainee Abu Zubaydah. In one session, according to cables cited in the report, Zubaydah became “completely unresponsive, with bubbles rising through his open, full mouth.” Some of the interrogators themselves were “profoundly affected … some to the point of tears and choking up.”</p>
<p>Why Thailand? According to <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/448563/details-still-secret-on-thailand-role-in-cia-torture">the <em>Bangkok Post</em></a>, the “ U.S. Senate's unedited report claims the CIA chose Thailand as the site of its safe house because of the close ties between the U.S. agency and Thai intelligence officers.” The report also claims that then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was informed of the facility only after it began operating. But according to the <em>Post</em>,<em> </em>the report has been met with public disappointment in Thailand as it “blanked out all information about the country's role in waterboarding, housing terrorist suspects from around the world, and the exact involvement of [the] Thaksin Shinawatra government, National Security Agency, and Royal Thai Army.” In any event, Shinawatra is currently in exile, facing a variety of criminal charges back home, and his sister Yingluck was overthrown in a military coup earlier this year. If any prominent members of the military junta that is now ruling the country were complicit in CIA torture, the report isn’t providing many answers.</p>
<p>Then there’s Poland, which from 2002 to 2003 hosted Stare Kiejkuty, the most important of the CIA’s black sites, where prisoners including Zubaydah, U.S.S. Cole bombing suspect Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, and 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Muhammed were held and subject to brutal interrogations including waterboarding.</p>
<p>It was here that, according to the report, Nashiri was threatened with a gun and a drill, left in uncomfortable stress positions for days, and told that “his mother would be brought before him and sexually abused.”</p>
<p>Following the report’s release, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and former Prime Minister Leszek Miller <a>admitted for the first time</a> that they had been aware of the facility’s existence, though both say they were not aware that torture was taking place there. Polish prosecutors have been <a href="http://www.startribune.com/world/285262721.html">conducting an investigation</a> into the program and prosecutors say the report could be used as evidence. Human rights groups have accused the Polish government of dragging its feet with the investigation.</p>
<p>The European Court of Human Rights <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/7/poland-cia-blacksiteeuropeancourthumanrightstorture.html">ruled in July</a> that Poland had been complicit in the program and awarded hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages to Nashiri and Zubaydah, both of whom are now being held at Guantanamo Bay.</p>
<p>While it’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2014/12/senate_torture_report_why_obama_won_t_prosecute_cia_and_bush_administration.html">extremely unlikely</a> that any of the perpetrators of the acts described in the report will ever be prosecuted in the United States, there’s still a question of whether they could face consequences overseas. In 2009, for instance, an Italian court <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/33620676/ns/world_news-europe#.VIiUVWTF_39">found 23 Americans</a> and two Italians guilty in the kidnapping of an Egyptian terror suspect in Milan as part of the CIA’s extraordinary renditions program. The Americans were tried in absentia but the decision could put them at risk of arrest if they travel to Europe.</p>
<p>While the activities described in the Senate report were mostly already known, the graphic detail in which they were described—as well as the fact that they were acknowledged in a U.S. government document—could add to calls for the prosecution of the officials involved. This could happen either in the countries where the torture took place—the CIA also ran black sites in Romania and Lithuania—or elsewhere under the principle of universal jurisdiction, which courts in some countries have used to try individuals for serious crimes, even if they took place abroad. (Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, who was arrested in London in 1998 on a Spanish warrant, is the most famous example of this principle being carried out.) One Amnesty International official <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/10/cia-report-prosecutions-international-law-icc">told the <em>Guardian</em></a>, “If I was one of those people, I would hesitate before making any travel arrangements.”</p>Wed, 10 Dec 2014 20:46:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/10/senate_torture_report_the_u_s_isn_t_prosecuting_anyone_for_enhanced_interrogation.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-10T20:46:00ZNews and PoliticsThe U.S. Isn’t Prosecuting Anyone for CIA Torture. But What About Other Countries?&nbsp;236141210001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/10/senate_torture_report_the_u_s_isn_t_prosecuting_anyone_for_enhanced_interrogation.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe U.S. Isn’t Prosecuting Anyone for CIA Torture. But What About Other Countries?&nbsp;The U.S. Isn’t Prosecuting Anyone for CIA Torture. But What About Other Countries?&nbsp;Photo by Shah Marai/AFP/Getty ImagesAfghan President Ashraf Ghani speaks during a press conference at the Presidential Palace in Kabul on Dec. 10, 2014.&nbsp;Syria Is Breaking the Planet’s Bankhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/09/u_n_humanitarian_appeal_syria_is_breaking_the_planet_s_bank.html
<p>The U.N. appealed Monday for <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/un-16-4-billion-needed-aid-most-vulnerable-140137168.html?utm_content=buffer174db&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">$16.4 billion in donations</a> to meet global humanitarian needs in 2015, the largest annual appeal in history. &nbsp;Last year, the U.N. asked for $12.9 billion, a figure that eventually grew to $17.9 billion on account of an unexpectedly large number of people in need due to conflicts around the world. Donors, though, coughed up only $9.4 billion. The remainder has been rolled over into this year’s appeal.</p>
<p>According to the appeal, the funds are required to help 57.5 million people in 22 countries, most of them experiencing war or conflict. Syria is by far the biggest problem, accounting for 40 percent of the appeal. Combine that figure with the <a href="http://www.unocha.org/2015appeal/">appeals for Iraq</a>, and the Middle East’s worst war in decades accounts for more than half of next year’s humanitarian needs.</p>
<p>The appeal, on behalf of 455 aid organizations, comes during a month when the World Food Program, a U.N. agency, suspended electronic food vouchers for Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt due to a lack of funds. It was announced Tuesday that the program <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/syrian-rocket-kills-3-men-crew-opposition-tv-110648655.html">will be reinstated</a> following a successful social media appeal to individual donors, but more resources will be needed with more than 9.5 million people displaced by the conflict both within Syria and abroad.</p>
<p>A consortium of NGOs also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/middleeast/rich-nations-urged-to-take-in-syrian-refugees.html">called</a> on Monday for wealthy nations to pledge to take in more Syrian refugees, as the resources of the country’s neighbors have been strained past the breaking point. There have been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/world/middleeast/syrian-refugees-jordan-border-united-nations.html">recent reports</a> that Jordan, which at one point was taking in more than 2,000 Syrians per day, is now refusing to let refugees cross its border, though the Jordanian government denies this.</p>
<p>All in all, the world’s humanitarian needs are concentrated in relatively few places. Seventy percent of the U.N.’s appeal is for just four countries: Syria, Iraq, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan. But the needs of those places, particularly Syria, seem to be greater than what the world is equipped to handle.</p>Tue, 09 Dec 2014 20:23:21 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/09/u_n_humanitarian_appeal_syria_is_breaking_the_planet_s_bank.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-09T20:23:21ZNews and PoliticsSyria Is Breaking the Planet’s Bank236141209001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/09/u_n_humanitarian_appeal_syria_is_breaking_the_planet_s_bank.htmlfalsefalsefalseSyria Is Breaking the Planet’s BankSyria Is Breaking the Planet’s BankPhoto by Maya Hautefeuille/AFP/Getty ImagesA young Syrian refugee walks past tents at the Al-Nihaya camp in the eastern Lebanese town of Arsal on Oct. 23, 2014.&nbsp;The Weirdest Finalist for Time’s Person of the Year. (It’s Not Taylor Swift.)http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/time_person_of_the_year_masoud_barzani_is_a_cop_out_isis_leader_abu_bakr.html
<p><em>Time</em> magazine on Monday unveiled its 2014 “<a href="http://time.com/3623703/time-person-of-the-year-2014-shortlist/">Person of the Year</a>” finalists: the “Ferguson protesters,” the “Ebola caregivers,” Russian President Vladimir Putin, singer Taylor Swift, Alibaba CEO Jack Ma, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Kurdish President Masoud Barzani, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. For once, the participants in the magazine’s online poll had better instincts than the editors, <a href="http://time.com/3623165/narendra-modi-india-time-person-of-the-year-poll/">choosing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi</a>, a more interesting and important world figure than anyone on the list.</p>
<p>I’ve seen some snark online about the culturally omnipresent Swift’s place on the list. She can <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWlot6h_JM">handle it</a>. But for me, Barzani, the president of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, is the most surprising inclusion. According to <em>Time</em>, he is being recognized for having “deftly threaded the region’s push for independence with the ongoing fight against” ISIS.</p>
<p>It has, indeed, been a big year for the Kurds. The collapse of the Iraqi government’s authority in the face of the ISIS invasion has <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/13/kurdish_forces_capture_kirkuk_could_iraq_s_chaos_lead_to_an_independent.html">brought the region closer</a> to its goal of full independence than ever before. Kurdish forces have also been at the forefront of the fight against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, particularly in the defense of the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/08/the_fall_of_the_small_syrian_city_could_anger_kurds_draw_turkey_further.html">besieged city of Kobani</a>. More recently, the KRG finalized <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/12/iraq-government-reaches-oil-deal-with-kurds-2014122161914107109.html">an economically crucial deal</a> with Baghdad that brought an end to a longs-tanding dispute over oil revenues. Last year the Kurdish government <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323716304578483102209858858">forced an unlikely oil deal</a> with longtime nemesis Turkey.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the region looked surprisingly vulnerable when ISIS pushed into Kurdistan in August. ISIS fighters overwhelmed the defenses put up by the much-vaunted Kurdish <em>peshmerga </em>forces, taking over the country’s largest hydroelectric dam and nearing the regional capital of Erbil. ISIS was eventually pushed back, but only with the help of Western airstrikes. Foreign powers also aren’t in a rush to recognize an independent Kurdistan, and most of the international community is still committed to maintaining a cohesive Iraqi state within its existing borders. As for Barzani, as detailed in a <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/29/fight-lives">recent profile</a> by the <em>New Yorker</em>’s Dexter Filkins, it’s fair to say he has more invested in the fight against ISIS than virtually any other world leader. But there’s also growing dissatisfaction with him from some parts of Kurdish society, which sees him as too reticent and also has concerns about corruption in the distribution of oil revenue.</p>
<p>My guess is that Barzani isn’t listed here because <em>Time</em> has much interest in him specifically. Rather, the magazine wants to somehow recognize the ISIS situation—one of the year’s biggest news stories—without having to declare ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a candidate for person of the year.</p>
<p>This is a cop-out. Baghdadi is obviously the most important person of 2014. A figure who few outside the region had heard of a year and a half ago has attracted thousands of supporters from around the world to his cause, wantonly slaughtered thousands of enemies, challenged al-Qaida as the world’s foremost jihadi group, set up a pseudo-state that threatens century-old regional boundaries, drawn an extremely reluctant U.S. government into yet another Middle Eastern war, and maintained control for months in the face of opposition from nearly every government on Earth. The man had quite a year.</p>
<p>It’s not like <em>Time</em> has been hesitant to award its annual honor to very bad people in the past. Adolf Hitler (1938) and Josef Stalin (1939 and 1942) are both past persons of the year. In recent years, though, <em>Time </em>has shied away from crediting universally acknowledged evildoers for their newsworthiness. The choice of Vladimir Putin was <a href="http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB119828977548646431?mg=reno64-wsj&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB119828977548646431.html">criticized by the Russian opposition</a> in 2007. (I wouldn’t expect him to be picked this year.) The outrage-storm that would have resulted from choosing Baghdadi would have been worse.</p>
<p>I fully understand that “person of the year” is meant to prompt a news cycle of second-guessing and that I’m taking the bait. Well done, <em>Time</em>! And in the magazine’s defense, while Barzani’s not an inspiring choice, when looking at the other government and Syrian rebel leaders who’ve led the fight against ISIS, it’s hard to come up with a better one. The fact that he’s the best non-Baghdadi candidate <em>Time </em>could come up with gives you some indication of why ISIS has been so hard to eliminate.</p>Mon, 08 Dec 2014 23:20:10 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/time_person_of_the_year_masoud_barzani_is_a_cop_out_isis_leader_abu_bakr.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-08T23:20:10ZNews and PoliticsYes, He’s Evil, But ISIS’s Mysterious Leader Should Still Be&nbsp;
<em>Time</em>’s Person of the Year236141208002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/time_person_of_the_year_masoud_barzani_is_a_cop_out_isis_leader_abu_bakr.htmlfalsefalsefalseYes, He’s Evil, But ISIS’s Mysterious Leader Should Still Be&nbsp;<em>Time</em>’s Person of the YearYes, He’s Evil, But ISIS’s Mysterious Leader Should Still Be&nbsp;<em>Time</em>’s Person of the YearISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, seen here in images released by Iraq’s interior ministry, is the real person of the year.Why Is Modern Warfare So Deadly for Children?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/18/why_is_modern_warfare_so_deadly_for_children.html
<p><em>A new report from UNICEF describes 2014 as one of the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/unicef-calls-2014-one-of-worst-years-on-record-for-worlds-children.html">worst years on record</a>&nbsp;for the world’s children, with millions impacted by conflicts in the&nbsp;Central African Republic, Gaza, Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, and Ukraine. “Never in recent memory have so many children been subjected to such unspeakable brutality,” the U.N. agency’s director, Anthony Lake, told the&nbsp;New York Times. The following post, originally published last July, looked at why modern warfare has become so deadly for kids.&nbsp;​</em></p>
<p>It’s striking how many of the recent crises that have received international attention prominently involve violence against children.</p>
<p>More than 40 children have already been killed in Israel’s strikes against Gaza, a crisis that of course began with the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/world/middleeast/gaza-strip-beach-explosion-kills-children.html">kidnapping and murder</a> of three Israeli teenagers. The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/world/middleeast/gaza-strip-beach-explosion-kills-children.html">killing of four Palestinian boys</a> on a Gaza beach, as the <em>New York Times</em>’ Anne Barnard put it, “came quickly to symbolize how the Israeli aerial assaults in Gaza are inevitably killing innocents in this crowded, impoverished sliver of land along the Mediterranean Sea.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile on America’s southern border, we’re <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/11/should_the_u_s_have_seen_the_border_crisis_coming.html">seeing the consequences</a> of an escalating drug war in Central America in which children increasingly find themselves on the front lines. In El Salvador, murders of children <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/world/americas/fleeing-gangs-children-head-to-us-border.html?ref=world">have increased</a> even as the overall homicide rate dropped following a gang truce. (Unfortunately, as my colleague David Weigel notes, this is attracting <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/congress_and_border_control_immigrant_kids_can_t_spur_politicians_to_action.html">depressingly little sympathy</a> in Washington.)</p>
<p>Then of course, there’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28374679">Boko Haram’s ongoing campaign of terror</a> in northern Nigeria, which attracted international attention after the abduction of 223 girls in April. Most of the girls are still missing.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=a/68/878">new annual report</a> from the U.N. secretary general looks at trends in violence against children in 2013, finding “a significant spike in the killing and maiming of children in several situations, including in Afghanistan and Iraq.” The U.N. also documented more than 4,000 cases of children being recruited and coerced into combat.</p>
<p>Why do today’s wars seem deadlier than ever for children? The<em> New Yorker’</em>s Robin Wright <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/07/the-new-way-of-war-killing-the-kids.html?mobify=0">reflects on the issue</a>, writing, “today’s wars are increasingly within countries rather than between them; the fighting has moved to city streets, invading the playrooms of homes and kindergartens.”</p>
<p>This corresponds with the findings of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/09/u_n_it_s_been_a_rough_year_for_afghans_especially_women_and_children.html">another recent U.N. report</a>, this one looking specifically at Afghanistan, which found that casualties among women and children rose much more quickly than for adult men last year due to a shift from improvised explosive devices to gun battles in heavily populated areas as the most prominent form of violence.</p>
<p>Of course, not all violence against children is incidental, the inevitable result of shifting patters of warfare. There are <a href="http://www.unhcrwashington.org/sites/default/files/1_UAC_Children%20On%20the%20Run_Executive%20Summary.pdf">extensive reports</a> of Central American criminal organizations targeting children for recruitment or as a means of punishing or extorting their parents. Boko Haram’s massive abduction got it exactly the kind of international publicity it craves. The three Israeli teenagers who were killed last month were <a href="http://www.unhcrwashington.org/sites/default/files/1_UAC_Children%20On%20the%20Run_Executive%20Summary.pdf">clearly intentionally targeted</a>, as was the Palestinian teenager <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/05/palestinian-boy-mohammed-abu-khdeir-burned-alive">killed in retaliation</a>. ISIS has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27726035">deliberately targeted families with children</a> in Iraq as part of its clash with Kurdish forces. Syrian forces <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-17532966">have been accused</a> of deliberately targeting children for detention and torture.</p>
<p>In a world where violence is shifting from battles between state-sponsored militaries to clashes involving nonstate groups fought in communities, children aren’t just often the victims, they’re often the targets.</p>Mon, 08 Dec 2014 21:30:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/18/why_is_modern_warfare_so_deadly_for_children.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-08T21:30:00ZNews and PoliticsWhy Is Modern Warfare So Deadly for Children?236140718001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/18/why_is_modern_warfare_so_deadly_for_children.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Is Modern Warfare So Deadly for Children?Why Is Modern Warfare So Deadly for Children?Photo by Omar al-Khani/AFP/Getty ImagesA Syrian girl rides her bicycle in an almost deserted street in the Teshrin neighborhood of the Qabun area in Damascus on Jan. 3, 2013.&nbsp;Could Natural Disasters Threaten Asia’s Economic Miracle?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/typhoon_hagupit_could_natural_disasters_threaten_asia_s_economic_miracle.html
<p>The death toll from Typhoon Hagupit, which made landfall in the Philippines on Saturday night, <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/typhoon-hammered-philippines-in-fight-for-our-survival/">has risen to 21</a>. Hagupit hit as delegates from 190 countries are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/03/lima-climate-talks-developing-nations-urge-rich-to-aim-for-zero-emissions">meeting in Lima</a> to hammer out the elements of a global climate deal that is due to be agreed upon in Paris next year. And this isn’t the first time that a typhoon swept through the Philippines during a major climate change conference. In 2012, Typhoon Bopha hit the country at the same time as a <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/doha_nov_2012/meeting/6815.php">major meeting in Doha</a>. Last year’s Typhoon Haiyan, the strongest typhoon ever recorded, devastated the country as delegates were meeting for a U.N. climate change conference in Warsaw, <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-17/typhoon-fuels-call-for-global-warming-payouts-carbon-and-climate">galvanizing calls</a> for wealthy countries to help the developing world cope with its effects, including more severe storms.</p>
<p>“Every year since 2008, typhoons have become the backdrop of the climate change conference,” Mary Ann Lucille Sering, secretary of the Philippines climate change commission,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/typhoon-hammered-philippines-in-fight-for-our-survival/">told this year’s conference</a>. Philippine NGOs taking part in the Lima meeting are using the storm to make the case that more urgency is needed. “To us in the Philippines, we are not any more debating on whether or not the impacts of climate change are here,” one activist <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1657223/filipino-activists-call-urgency-climate-change-lima-conference">told the AFP</a>.</p>
<p>While it’s <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/did-climate-change-cause-typhoon-haiyan-1.14139">impossible to pin responsibility</a> for any one weather event on climate change, catastrophic typhoons do appear to be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-14/climate-change-making-super-typhoons-worse/5090724">getting more frequent</a> and rising sea levels are contributing to worsening storm surges and flooding. If storms continue to worsen, Asian countries like the Philippines may bear the brunt of the damage. A <a href="http://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/climate-extremes-could-stop-asian-growth-in-its-tracks-oxfam/">recent report from Oxfam</a> found that 78 percent of people killed by natural disasters lived in Asia even though just 43 percent of disasters occurred there. (Asia accounts for about 60 percent of the world population.) Asia has also borne about half the economic cost of these disasters over the last 20 years.</p>
<p>This isn’t all because of climate change. Much of it is due to increasingly large populations living in vulnerable areas like Tacloban, the rapidly growing regional capital devastated by storm surges during Haiyan and again during the most recent storm. The large cities of Asia are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2010/oct/21/asian-cities-natural-disasters-risk">particularly vulnerable</a> to floods and storms, and according to Oxfam, “the number of people exposed to coastal flooding in Asia is expected to increase by 50 percent by 2030.” These include major agricultural areas in South and Southeast Asia. Haiyan alone may have done <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/19/typhoon-haiyan-caused-225-million-in-agricultural-damage/">more than $225 million</a> in damage to the Philippine agricultural sector.</p>
<p>Natural disasters are already costing the world’s second-largest economy, China, an estimated <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/24/us-china-disasters-idUSBREA1N0JW20140224">$69 billion per year</a>, and these costs are growing along with the severity of droughts and floods.</p>
<p>What chance is there that a climate deal could help Asia deal with catastrophic weather events? There’s a bit more momentum than usual heading into this year’s meetings following last November’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/12/china_u_s_emissions_deal_terrifying_air_pollution_forced_chinese_leaders.html">U.S.-China emissions deal</a> and <a href="http://www.news24.com/Green/News/Green-Climate-Fund-whos-pledged-20141206">several recent pledges</a> from wealthy countries that have raised the U.N. Green Climate Fund, meant to help poor countries adapt to the effects of climate change, to more than $10 billion. But there are still <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ambitions-meet-wariness-as-u-n-climate-change-talks-begin-in-lima-1417622504">major rifts</a> between already-rich countries and developing countries over who bears responsibility for emissions cuts. Asia’s economic growth and reductions in poverty have been one of the great positive transformations of modern times, but going forward the weather’s going to be a problem, especially if the rest of the world doesn’t chip in to help out.</p>Mon, 08 Dec 2014 20:54:46 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/typhoon_hagupit_could_natural_disasters_threaten_asia_s_economic_miracle.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-08T20:54:46ZNews and PoliticsCould Natural Disasters Threaten Asia’s Economic Miracle?236141208001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/08/typhoon_hagupit_could_natural_disasters_threaten_asia_s_economic_miracle.htmlfalsefalsefalseCould Natural Disasters Threaten Asia’s Economic Miracle?Could Natural Disasters Threaten Asia’s Economic Miracle?Photo by Marlon Tano/AFP/Getty ImagesA man crawls on top of his damaged house in Tacloban, central Philippines, on Dec. 7, 2014.&nbsp;Don’t Assume Benjamin Netanyahu’s Job Is Safehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/05/israeli_election_don_t_assume_benjamin_netanyahu_s_job_is_safe.html
<p>When Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/02/netanyahu_israel_elections_prime_minister_wants_new_government.html">fired his finance and justice ministers</a> this week and called for early elections to be held in three months, it seemed like the Israeli prime minister would likely retain his position and expand the power of his right-wing coalition. But some more recent developments suggest it may not be the slam dunk he was anticipating.</p>
<p>A new <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Post-poll-60-percent-of-Israelis-dont-want-Netanyahu-anymore-383724"><em>Jerusalem Post/Ma’ariv </em>story</a> finds that 60 percent of Israelis don’t want Netanyahu, the second-longest serving Israeli prime minister after David Ben-Gurion, to remain in that position. Respondents also chose former social services minister Moshe Kahlon and former interior minister Gideon Sa’ar over the prime minister in head-to-head comparisons. An earlier <em>Haaretz</em> poll had <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/popularity-crashing-but-netanyahu-still-leading-political-pack-poll/#ixzz3KlaT594a">given Netanyahu the edge</a> over his potential rivals, though also found that his approval rating had dropped to 38 percent, down dramatically from the 77 percent support he enjoyed during the August war in Gaza, with voters pessimistic about the state of the economy and feeling gloomy about political paralysis and continuing violence.</p>
<p>There are also now reports that an unlikely “anyone but Bibi” alliance could be in the works. That alliance could include Kahlon, a <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-slams-old-party-plans-political-comeback/">former Likudnik</a> who argues that his old party is being taken over by the far right; Yair Lapid, the finance minister and former TV personality who Netanyahu fired from his cabinet earlier this week; and Avigdor Lieberman, the foreign minister and advocate for West Bank settlers who loathes Netanyahu and has been one of his most persistent critics from the right.</p>
<p>It’s a weird combination, though not actually much weirder than the government that collapsed this week. At times, it seemed like the main thing uniting Netanyahu’s ministers was that they were all trying to undermine him. That coalition included moderates like Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni to go along with Lieberman and economy minister Naftali Bennett, both of whom would have been considered fringe right-wingers until a few years ago. (Those to the right of Netanhayu tend not to even give lip service to the two-state solution, oppose most negotiations with Palestinian leaders, and favor conservative social policies within Israel itself.)</p>
<p>With small samples sizes and a plethora of candidates, polls in Israel are notoriously unreliable—last year’s election, for instance, was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/23/us-israel-election-netanyahu-idUSBRE90M0UM20130123">much closer than anticipated</a>. Polls only tell part of the story anyway, since the next government will almost certainly involve a multi-party coalition that comes together only after the votes are counted. The fact that parties seem increasingly willing to form coalitions with ideological foes only makes the outcome harder to predict.</p>
<p>With Israel’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/04/us-israel-election-economy-idUSKCN0JI1E620141204">economy slowing</a>, bread and butter issues will probably dominate the run-up to the election. A January or February surprise, though, could bring security issues back to the forefront, and terrorist attacks <a href="http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/50/6/899.short">have tended to lead to electoral victories</a> for the Israeli right.</p>
<p>As Michael Koplow <a href="http://ottomansandzionists.com/2014/12/03/netanyahu-is-going-to-trade-one-headache-for-another/">notes</a>, even if Netanyahu comes out of the election with a larger right-wing coalition and sheds his nemesis Lapid in the process, that won’t necessarily give him more room for maneuver. It <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/16/believe_it_or_not_netanyahu_looks_like_a_peacenik_compared_to_his_cabinet.html">became obvious</a> during the Gaza War that Netanyahu doesn’t have a lot of friends to his right, and hawks like Lieberman and Bennett were more effective at countering him than moderates like Lapid and Livni.</p>
<p>The overall trend lines in Israeli public opinion are also difficult to discern. The country often looks like its drifting inexorably to the right, leading to the rise of settler and Orthodox-linked parties that make Netanyahu’s Likud look moderate. But as Gershom Gorenberg <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.629961">points out</a>, the right actually lost support in last year’s election, forcing Netanyahu into an unworkable coalition that clashed on everything from the economy to the U.S.-led peace negotiations.</p>
<p>As for America’s stake in this, even if Netanyahu is ousted, things <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/02/better-off-with-bibi-israel-politics-elections/">won’t necessarily get easier if Lieberman or Bennett</a> increase their influence in the next election. On the other hand, the White House at least would probably relish <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/29/politics/obama-netanyahu-relationship/">not having to talk to Bibi anymore</a>.&nbsp;</p>Fri, 05 Dec 2014 23:16:01 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/05/israeli_election_don_t_assume_benjamin_netanyahu_s_job_is_safe.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-05T23:16:01ZNews and PoliticsDon’t Assume Benjamin Netanyahu’s Job Is Safe236141205001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/05/israeli_election_don_t_assume_benjamin_netanyahu_s_job_is_safe.htmlfalsefalsefalseDon’t Assume Benjamin Netanyahu’s Job Is SafeDon’t Assume Benjamin Netanyahu’s Job Is SafePhoto by GIL COHEN MAGEN/AFP/Getty ImagesIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Jerusalem on November 18, 2014.&nbsp;China Says It Will Stop Harvesting Organs From Executed Prisonershttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/china_says_it_will_stop_harvesting_organs_from_executed_prisoners.html
<p>Human rights groups believe China is <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/china_considers_death_penalty_cutbacks_the_people_s_republic_may_be_souring.html">reducing the number of people</a> it executes, though firm numbers are still hard to come by. Starting next month, it’s also ending one of the more gruesome aspects of the process, the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/04/china-stop-using-executed-prisoners-organs-transplant-demand-donations">use of executed prisoners</a> as a source of organs for transplants. The move, which has been promised for some time, is a welcome human rights development. It’s also going to contribute to an acute shortage of organs.</p>
<p>With its massive and aging population, China has an obvious need for organs, but it also has one of the world’s lowest transplant rates. According to Chinese customs, bodies are traditionally buried intact and family members are often reluctant to allow organs to be removed. Only <a href="http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/organ-donation-struggles-to-take-hold-in-china/">130 people signed</a> up to be organ donors in China between 2003 and 2009.</p>
<p>Organs from executed prisoners have often found their way beyond the country’s borders. In 2007, when China reduced the number of executions in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics, the price of kidneys <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/china-prepares-for-olympics-drop-in-executions-leads-to-organ-shortage-a-474396.html">skyrocketed in South Korea</a>. That same year, China officially banned the practice of selling organs from Chinese prisoners to foreigners, though a robust black market <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/01/world/asia/china-organs/">still exists</a>.</p>
<p>This didn’t address the domestic issue, though. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8222732.stm">China admitted in 2009</a> that 65 percent of the country’s organ donations were obtained from executed prisoners. It’s down to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/world/asia/china-organ-transplant-program-will-phase-out-executed-inmates.html?_r=0">about 54 percent</a> today, according to official statistics.</p>
<p>While it’s good that a gruesome practice is coming to an end, it’s also true that only an estimated 10,000 patients receive transplants each year in China out of the 300,000 who need them.&nbsp;<strong></strong>The government has been working to increase donation rates, but public distrust of the health system is high. Stories of local Red Cross officials <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/09/will-chinas-organ-transplant-reforms-really-work/279567/">threatening to pull the plug</a> on patients if their families don’t sign over their organs probably aren’t going to encourage cooperation.</p>
<p>As a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/04/world/asia/chronic-diseases-are-killing-more-in-poorer-countries.html?smid=tw-share">report today</a> indicates, chronic conditions like heart disease and cancer are making up a much larger portion of the death toll in developing countries as life expectancies increase and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_polio_free_africa.html">once-devastating infectious diseases</a> are brought under control. This is good news, but providing long-term care for these conditions in places with limited resources will lead to some major ethical issues, of which China’s organ harvest is just a particularly extreme example.</p>Thu, 04 Dec 2014 23:17:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/china_says_it_will_stop_harvesting_organs_from_executed_prisoners.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-04T23:17:00ZNews and PoliticsChina’s New Execution Rules Could Lead to an Organ Shortage236141204002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/china_says_it_will_stop_harvesting_organs_from_executed_prisoners.htmlfalsefalsefalseChina’s New Execution Rules Could Lead to an Organ ShortageChina’s New Execution Rules Could Lead to an Organ ShortagePutin Says Crimea Is Russia’s “Temple Mount”http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/putin_describes_crimea_as_russia_s_temple_mount_in_annual_address.html
<p>In his <a href="http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/23341">annual address</a> to Russia’s Federal Assembly—the rough equivalent of the U.S. State of the Union address—President Vladimir Putin used a striking analogy when discussing the annexation, or “reunification” as he puts it, of Crimea. In today’s speech, he described it as having “invaluable civilizational and even sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism.”</p>
<p>The Temple Mount comparison is a provocative one in light of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/four_rabbis_killed_in_jerusalem_attack_what_s_really_behind_the_explosion.html">recent violent conflicts over the site</a>. It’s also a somewhat confusing one. The defining political characteristic of the Temple Mount is that more than one group has a long-standing cultural and religious claim to it, which seems like the opposite of what Putin is suggesting in the case of Crimea.</p>
<p>Though this specific comparison is new, the general tenor of Putin’s remarks is not. As I discussed in a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/11/russia_orthodox_church_will_vladimir_putin_eradicate_all_boundaries_between.html">recent article</a>, the president has often used religious rhetoric to cast his foreign policy in terms of a historical struggle to defend Russian civilization. In his speech, Putin referred to events which took place in the 980s, when Prince Vladimir of Kiev was baptized in Crimea and converted his subjects to Christianity, an event often considered the birth of the Russian Orthodox Church. He also called Crimea “the spiritual source of the development of a multifaceted but solid Russian nation and a centralized Russian state.” By contrast, church leaders, including Patriarch Kirill, leader of the church, have been more circumspect on the Ukraine issue, caught between their loyalty to Putin and a desire not to alienate their adherents in Ukraine, some of whom support the Kiev government.</p>
<p>Most of the rest of the speech was fairly standard Putin rhetoric. He condemned Western sanctions and the “coup” in Ukraine as part of a long-standing effort to contain and divide Russia.</p>
<p>The elephant in the room is the dire state of the Russian economy. He promised more investment in infrastructure, particularly in the east, and a crackdown on currency speculation. Addressing the concerns of businesses that have pulled out of the country, he promised “full amnesty for capital returning to Russia,” meaning that for business leaders, there will be “legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not ‘put the squeeze’ on him.”</p>
<p>Putin suggested Western sanctions were an opportunity for the development of Russian industry and for building ties to Asia, South America, and the Middle East. He didn’t discuss the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.html">impact of plummeting oil prices</a>. (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-13/russia-at-risk-from-dwindling-oil-reserves-european-bank-says.html">Oil and gas account for about half</a> of the government’s revenue.)</p>
<p>Overall, the speech felt like that of a leader confident that his citizens <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/17/russia_s_economy_s_in_trouble_but_that_doesn_t_mean_russians_will_turn_on.html">still have faith in him</a>, despite what is almost certain to be a long and painful economic downturn. With his popularity <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-to-give-annual-address-as-his-popularity-declines/512216.html">still above 80 percent</a> despite the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/08/andrei_nechayev_interview_the_russian_economy_is_in_big_trouble_and_it_s.html">gloomy forecasts</a>, he’s probably right.</p>Thu, 04 Dec 2014 18:27:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/putin_describes_crimea_as_russia_s_temple_mount_in_annual_address.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-04T18:27:00ZNews and PoliticsPutin Says Crimea Is Russia’s “Temple Mount”236141204001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/04/putin_describes_crimea_as_russia_s_temple_mount_in_annual_address.htmlfalsefalsefalsePutin Says Crimea Is Russia’s “Temple Mount”Putin Says Crimea Is Russia’s “Temple Mount”Photo by Sasha Mordovets/Getty ImagesRussian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address to the National Assembly in Grand Kremlin Palace on Dec. 4, 2014, in Moscow.If It Happened There: Courts Sanction Killings by U.S. Security Forceshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/eric_garner_grand_jury_how_would_we_cover_the_decision_not_to_indict_a_police.html
<p><em>The latest installment in a&nbsp;</em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/i/if_it_happened_there.html"><strong><em>continuing series</em></strong></a><em>&nbsp;in which American events are described using the tropes and tone normally employed by the American media to describe events in other countries.</em></p>
<p>NEW YORK CITY, United States—The heavily armed security forces in this large and highly militarized country have long walked the streets with impunity, rarely if ever held accountable for violence committed against civilians. In recent weeks, however, several such incidents have ignited public anger and threatened to open new fault lines in a nation with a long and tragic history of sectarian violence.</p>
<p>In America’s largest city, the judicial branch <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/04/nyregion/grand-jury-said-to-bring-no-charges-in-staten-island-chokehold-death-of-eric-garner.html">declined to pursue charges</a> against a security officer who was videotaped in broad daylight choking a man to death. This came less than two weeks after courts in the nation’s often overlooked central region reached a similar decision in the shooting of an unarmed teenager. Both victims were members of the country’s largest minority group, and the killings have set off nationwide protests that have often escalated into clashes between dissidents and the security forces.</p>
<p>While lower than that of other countries in the Western Hemisphere, America’s violent crime rate is high by the standards of developed nations, a situation experts blame on a variety of factors, including skyrocketing income inequality and easy access to firearms. In response, the country’s recent ruling regimes have broadly expanded the policing and surveillance powers of the domestic security forces and instituted draconian sentences for even minor criminal offenses. As a result of this campaign, the world’s second-largest democracy has the highest percentage of its population behind bars—a virtual prison state of 2.3 million people housed in an archipelago of often poorly maintained facilities throughout the nation.</p>
<p>Information provided by human rights groups shows that the state’s crackdown has disproportionately targeted members of the country’s ethnic minority groups, who have been historically marginalized and subject to severe discrimination. The election of the country’s first minority president, it was once hoped, would help bring these disparities to an end, but experts say they have persisted and in some cases even worsened.</p>
<p>Domestic critics also say the state has grown increasingly intolerant of dissent. Security forces have been outfitted with the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-12-01/after-ferguson-five-takeaways-from-obamas-police-militarization-report">latest in military hardware</a>, often battle-tested on the fields of the country’s multiple foreign wars. The use of tear gas and rubber bullets against domestic protesters is reminiscent of the state’s tactics during protests against the system of legally enforced apartheid, which was in place in the country’s southern region until the middle of the last century.</p>
<p>With calls for sweeping democratic reforms mounting, the state has been slow to respond. Thus far, the ruling party has announced only <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/01/obama_police_body_cameras_white_house_says_it_will_help_fund_purchases.html">limited measures</a>, including new training programs and cameras to be worn by members of the security forces—an odd choice given that one of the killings in question was already videotaped.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/u_n_torture_committee_blasts_u_s_over_police_shootings_and_gitmo.html">United Nations Committee Against Torture</a> and global NGOs including <a href="http://www.amnestyusa.org/research/reports/on-the-streets-of-america-human-rights-abuses-in-ferguson">Amnesty International</a> have condemned the U.S. in recent days, though as yet there’s been little discussion of sanctions. With many of the country’s political leaders and media outlets casting aspersions on both the victims of violence and the protesters, it’s unclear if the events of the past few weeks will mark a turning point, or if this is just another periodic eruption of the country’s long-simmering internal tensions.</p>Wed, 03 Dec 2014 23:11:33 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/eric_garner_grand_jury_how_would_we_cover_the_decision_not_to_indict_a_police.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-03T23:11:33ZNews and PoliticsHow Would the U.S. Media Cover the Eric Garner Case If It Happened in Another Country?236141203003if it happened thereJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/eric_garner_grand_jury_how_would_we_cover_the_decision_not_to_indict_a_police.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow Would the U.S. Media Cover the Eric Garner Case If It Happened in Another Country?How Would the U.S. Media Cover the Eric Garner Case If It Happened in Another Country?Photo by STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty ImagesProtesters take to the streets.So Long as Everyone Thinks China Is Corrupt, It Still Needs Hong Konghttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/transparency_international_index_as_long_as_everyone_thinks_china_is_corrupt.html
<p><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/crackdown-on-government-corruption-in-china/">More than 80,000 members of the Communist Party</a>, from obscure local officials to <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/01/with_china_cracking_down_on_corrupt_officials_communist_party_membership.html">some of the most powerful people</a> in China, have been investigated as part of President Xi Jinping’s ongoing corruption crackdown. Many believe these investigations are the explanation for a recent wave of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/10/what_s_driving_chinese_officials_to_suicide.html">officials committing suicide</a>. But what about the supposed purpose of these inquiries: Are they doing anything to cut down on the widespread belief that Chinese officials are corrupt?</p>
<p>Not really. China has <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/03/world/asia/china-transparency-international-corruption-2014/index.html">fallen 20 places</a> in Transparency International’s <a href="http://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results">Corruption Perception Index</a>, dropping from 80<sup>th</sup> in 2013 to a tie for 100<sup>th</sup> place with Algeria and Suriname. The heavily cited index measures perceptions of public-sector corruption based <a href="http://www.transparency.org/files/content/pressrelease/2013_CPISourceDescription_EN.pdf">on a number of assessments</a> of governance and business climate. This year, Denmark was perceived as the least corrupt (<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/29/will_everyone_shut_up_already_about_how_the_nordic_countries_top_every_global.html">surprise, surprise</a>), with Somalia and North Korea coming in last.</p>
<p>Not all of China is perceived so negatively. Hong Kong, which is rated separately from the rest of the People’s Republic, came in at 17<sup>th</sup>, tying it with a motley grouping of Barbados, Ireland, and the United States. The disparity is worth considering in light of the ongoing anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong, which have raised the question of how much longer China will keep the “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/29/hong_kong_protests_is_the_one_country_two_systems_arrangement_on_the_ropes.html">one country, two systems</a>” arrangement that allows the city to maintain an independent legal and political system.</p>
<p>Hong Kong makes up a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102043499#.">much smaller portion</a> of the overall Chinese economy than it used to, and it’s lost some of its luster thanks to the emergence of free-trade zones on the mainland. But what it does have, as reflected by the index, is a solid international reputation. As <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/09/economist-explains-22">the <em>Economist</em> noted</a> in September, “foreign companies also use the city as their staging post for investing in China as it offers them something that no mainland city does: a stable investment environment, protected by fair, transparent courts that enforce long-established rule of law.” The Chinese government has taken advantage of this environment as well, using Hong Kong as a testing ground for a number of financial reforms.</p>
<p>But if Hong Kong’s reputation as a safe and stable place to do business is the key to its relevance, stories involving <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-polices-use-of-tear-gas-during-protests-hurts-reputation-of-asias-finest-1412398431">police crackdowns</a> and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102083358">triad gangsters</a> haven’t been helpful.</p>
<p>Judging by recent reports, the resolve of the Occupy Central protesters <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hong-kong-protests-waver-student-leader-starts-hunger-strike-288538">appears to be waning</a>. Student leader Joshua Wong has now launched a hunger strike in a bid to keep the momentum going. But the aftereffects of the turmoil will be felt for some time. In their bid to keep Hong Kong under control, Chinese authorities may be undermining the benefits of maintaining it as an independent entity at all.</p>Wed, 03 Dec 2014 19:08:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/transparency_international_index_as_long_as_everyone_thinks_china_is_corrupt.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-03T19:08:11ZNews and PoliticsSo Long as Everyone Thinks China Is Corrupt, It Still Needs Hong Kong236141203002chinaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/transparency_international_index_as_long_as_everyone_thinks_china_is_corrupt.htmlfalsefalsefalseSo Long as Everyone Thinks China Is Corrupt, It Still Needs Hong KongSo Long as Everyone Thinks China Is Corrupt, It Still Needs Hong KongPhoto by Lam Yik Fei/Getty ImagesPro-democracy protesters hold umbrellas to support the three co-founders of the Occupy Central movement, who surrendered themselves to police on Dec. 3, 2014, in Hong Kong.Iran Vigorously Denies U.S. Claims That It’s Cooperating With the U.S. Against ISIShttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/iran_vigorously_denies_u_s_claims_that_it_s_cooperating_with_the_u_s_against.html
<p>Iran’s role in the new U.S.-led coalition of the willing against ISIS has been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/05/could_iran_be_part_of_america_s_new_coalition_of_the_willing.html">something of a mystery</a> since the group came together in the fall. Iran clearly agrees with the U.S. and its allies on the need to confront ISIS and maintain the integrity of what’s left of the Iraqi state, but given the ongoing dispute over Iran’s nuclear program and the deep disagreement over what to do about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, neither side is going to talk openly about cooperation.</p>
<p>There have been <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/06/26/iran-reportedly-sent-military-advisers-head-quds-force-to-iraq/">reports for months</a> of Iranian advisers helping coordinate anti-ISIS efforts on the ground in Iraq. Tehran has also been supporting the Syrian government since the beginning of the civil war, but the Iranian military doesn’t appear to have taken direct action against ISIS. Until now … maybe.</p>
<p>U.S. officials said today <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/03/us-mideast-crisis-iran-idUSKCN0JH0WY20141203">that they believe</a> Iran carried out airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq 10 days ago, near the Iranian border. Iranian officials are denying that the strikes took place.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/12/reports-iranian-jets-action-against-isil-20141235279681455.html">Footage from Al-Jazeera</a> shows what experts say is an F-4 fighter jet attacking the targets in Iraq’s Diyala province. Iran and Turkey are the only countries in the region that use F-4s, and given the proximity to Iranian territory and Turkey’s reluctance to get involved in the fight against ISIS, Iran is the most likely culprit. Nonetheless, the Iranian government is sticking with its story. A senior official tells Reuters, “Iran has never been involved in any air strikes against Daesh [the preferred term for ISIS in the region] targets in&nbsp;Iraq. Any cooperation in such strikes with America is also out of question for Iran.”</p>
<p>As the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30306106">BBC explains</a>, the F-4 is an American-made plane, and several hundred were sold to Iran before the 1979 revolution. The planes saw frequent combat during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, but in recent years, U.S. sanctions have made it hard to find spare parts for the aging planes. A <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_16/02/2014_537424">story in the Greek media</a> earlier this year suggested that Israeli arms dealers may have been illegally supplying Iran with spare F-4 parts.</p>
<p>So in case you’re keeping score at home, Iran, America’s sworn enemy, is denying American accusations that it is cooperating with America to attack their common enemy using American planes, which, thanks to American sanctions, are being illegally maintained, possibly with the assistance&nbsp;possibly with the assistance of Israelis. Got that?</p>Wed, 03 Dec 2014 17:13:59 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/iran_vigorously_denies_u_s_claims_that_it_s_cooperating_with_the_u_s_against.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-03T17:13:59ZNews and PoliticsIran Vigorously Denies U.S. Claims That It’s Cooperating With the U.S. Against ISIS236141203001iranJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/03/iran_vigorously_denies_u_s_claims_that_it_s_cooperating_with_the_u_s_against.htmlfalsefalsefalseIran Vigorously Denies U.S. Claims That It’s Cooperating With the U.S. Against ISISIran Vigorously Denies U.S. Claims That It’s Cooperating With the U.S. Against ISISPhoto by Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty ImagesF-4 fighter jets fly during the annual Army Day military parade on April 18, 2014, in Tehran.Is It Now Legal for Cuban Ballplayers to Leave Their Country and Join the Major Leagues?&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/yoan_moncada_is_it_now_legal_for_cuban_ballplayers_to_leave_their_country.html
<p>Baseball’s next great Cuban prospect, Yoan Moncada, is currently cooling his heels in Guatemala waiting to be cleared by the U.S. government’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. Once he does get that clearance, Moncada can start receiving offers from major-league teams, which are expected to range between $30 and $40 million.</p>
<p>What the 19-year-old switch-hitter can do behind the plate or at third base is less intriguing than how he got out of Cuba. Dozens of the nation’s baseball stars, from <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-marlins-el-duque-1101-20141101-story.html">Orlando Hernandez</a> to <a href="http://www.lamag.com/longform/escape-from-cuba-yasiel-puigs-untold-journey-to-the-dodgers/">Yasiel Puig </a>have made their way to America, often via harrowing escapes involving dangerous boat rides and predatory human traffickers. Even when the escape is less dramatic—pitcher Aroldis Chapman, now of the Cincinnati Reds, simply <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4302422">walked out of his hotel room</a> in the Netherlands where the Cuban national team was participating in the World Baseball Classic—defection usually means a player is permanently exiled from homeland and family.</p>
<p>Moncada, by contrast, seems to have just showed up. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/meet-the-latest-cuban-sensation-who-could-change-the-game-003916654.html">reports</a> that “he did so on what his handlers say is a legal Cuban passport, meaning the government OK’d his departure, something never before done for a high-level ballplayer.” Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yoan-moncada-the-most-fascinating-piece-of-the-offseason/">adds</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
I was told by Moncada’s agent last week that he was allowed by the Cuban government to leave the country, that Moncada has a Cuban passport and can fly back to the country whenever he wants to. I haven’t been able to formally confirm this, but there’s no reason for the agent to lie about it, and multiple high-ranking club executives told me this is how they understand the situation at this point as well.
</blockquote>
<p>If true, this represents a recent change in policy. As recently as last June, Yasmany Tomas escaped to Haiti under circumstances that, according to MLB.com, “<a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/95297102/cubas-next-big-thing-yasmany-tomas-ready-to-impress-scouts">remain mysterious</a>.” Tomas has since signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.</p>
<p>So, what’s going on here? In 2012, as part of a package of liberalizing reforms, Raul Castro’s government <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/uk-cuba-reform-immigration-idUSLNE89F01T20121017">eased travel restrictions</a> for the country’s citizens. Previously, to travel abroad Cubans had needed an exit visa from the government and an invitation from someone in the destination country. Under the new system, only a passport is required.</p>
<p>In September 2013, Cuba also <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/cuban-national-signs-first-million-dollar-baseball-contract-n87526">dropped its longstanding policy</a> prohibiting baseball players from signing with professional teams. The era of legally sanctioned Cuban pro ballplayers has already begun in other countries. In April, outfielder Frederich Cepeda&nbsp;signed with the Yoimuri Giants of Japan, becoming the first player to take advantage of the new rules. He will get to keep 80 percent of his $1.5 million earnings. That’s not quite Yankees money, but it’s a lot more than the $100 to $450 a month he would earn in Cuba, and he’ll get to come back home to see his family at the end of the season.</p>
<p>The U.S. embargo still makes the journey to the big show difficult for Cubans, and even if the Castro regime has turned a blind eye to Moncada’s actions so far, it’s unlikely that he’ll still be welcome back home after he signs to an American team. But with Cuba gradually loosening its restrictions and support for the embargo <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/12/it_s_getting_safer_for_politicians_to_oppose_the_cuba_embargo.html">dropping</a> in the U.S., it’s probably only a matter of time before the gates open entirely. &nbsp;</p>Tue, 02 Dec 2014 20:48:04 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/yoan_moncada_is_it_now_legal_for_cuban_ballplayers_to_leave_their_country.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-02T20:48:04ZNews and PoliticsIs It Now Legal for Cuban Ballplayers to Leave Their Country and Join the Major Leagues?&nbsp;236141202002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/yoan_moncada_is_it_now_legal_for_cuban_ballplayers_to_leave_their_country.htmlfalsefalsefalseIs It Now Legal for Cuban Ballplayers to Leave Their Country and Join the Major Leagues?&nbsp;Is It Now Legal for Cuban Ballplayers to Leave Their Country and Join the Major Leagues?&nbsp;Photo by Koji Watanabe/Getty ImagesOutfielder Yasmany Tomas of Cuba celebrates with team-mates during the 2013 World Baseball Classic in Tokyo.Nobody Buys the Environmentalist Case Against Immigrationhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/switzerland_s_ecopop_referendum_and_the_sierra_club_s_flirtations_with_nativism.html
<p>Over the weekend, Swiss voters <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30267042">overwhelmingly rejected</a> a proposal that would have cut the country’s net immigration to no more than 0.2 percent of the population. In practice, this would have meant a reduction from 80,000 to 16,000 immigrants each year. But while Swiss voters <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/10/world/europe/swiss-voters-narrowly-approve-curbs-on-immigration.html?hp">approved other restrictions</a> to the country’s previously liberal immigration laws earlier this year, this measure apparently went too far.</p>
<p>What’s fascinating about the latest referendum is that was sponsored not by a far-right nationalist party, as the one approved earlier this year was, but by an environmentalist group. (Under Swiss law, citizens can force a vote on a referendum if they gather enough signatures.) That group, called Ecopop, argues that increased immigration will put a strain on the country’s natural resources. “Switzerland grew over the past seven years about 50 percent faster than the UK for example, and about five times faster than the European community as a whole,” the referendum’s author, Benno Buehler, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30195633">told the BBC</a>. “At this speed we are basically on the level of India. This is not sustainable.”&nbsp;The referendum also called for devoting 10 percent of Switzerland’s foreign aid budget to supporting family planning in developing countries.</p>
<p>Green nativism is fairly unusual in Europe, where opposition to immigration tends to be rooted in economic and cultural concerns. It has more of a history in the United States. The Sierra Club, one of America’s largest and oldest environmental groups, now <a href="http://colorlines.com/archives/2013/05/how_sierra_club_learned_to_stop_worrying_and_grew_to_love_immigration.html">supports reforms</a> that would create a pathway to citizenship for the country’s undocumented immigrants, and environmental groups including Greenpeace and 350.org have similarly liberal views on immigration, but this wasn’t always the case.</p>
<p>As recounted in a detailed timeline by the <a href="http://www.splcenter.org/greenwash-nativists-environmentalism-and-the-hypocrisy-of-hate/greenwashing-a-timeline#.UYL26KVWIWY">Southern Poverty Law Center</a>, the Sierra Club’s nativist streak dates back to at least 1968, when it published Paul Ehrlich’s bestseller <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1568495870/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>The Population Bomb</em></a>, which warned that overpopulation would lead to mass starvation. The Sierra Club never explicitly called for new laws restricting immigration, but throughout the 1970s and 1980s it urged the government to study the issue as part of broader efforts to stabilize population groups.</p>
<p>In 1989, the Sierra Club issued a statement urging that immigration be “no greater than that which will permit achievement of population stabilization in the United States.” In 1993, it stated that levels should be “reduced so that their levels are consistent with the U.S. and Canadian population policies.” That stance was the subject of intense internal debate, and in 1996 Sierra declared its neutrality on the immigration question. In 1998, its members rejected a referendum that would have declared the group opposed to immigration. Six years after that, the subject of immigration <a href="http://grist.org/article/nijhuis-sierra/">dominated the Sierra Club’s</a> leadership elections, but the anti-restrictionists won out.</p>
<p>The club’s gradual abandonment of its anti-immigration sentiments coincided with efforts to expand the appeal of the U.S. environmental movement beyond its traditional affluent white base. This old line of thinking, though, lives on in the network of organizations founded by John Tanton, the retired Michigan ophthalmologist and amateur naturalist who led the Sierra Club’s Population Committee in the 1970s. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Tanton, one of the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/us/17immig.html?pagewanted=all">ideological godfathers</a> of the modern anti-immigration movement, has helped found groups including Numbers USA, which led the opposition to George W. Bush’s immigration reform plans, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), which helped draft Arizona’s controversial immigration law, and the Center for Immigration Studies, a leading non-profit anti-immigrant research organization. Tanton has also pushed, with limited success, for the anti-immigration movement to expand its outreach to traditionally liberal constituencies like environmental groups and supporters of Planned Parenthood.</p>
<p>Green nativists most recently made noise last Earth Day, when a group called Californians for Population Stabilization <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/17/immigration-earth-day-ad_n_5170900.html">produced an ad</a> accusing illegal immigrants of worsening the state’s drought.</p>
<p>There may have been some logic to the green nativist position in the days when wilderness conservation was the primary concern of the environmental movement. Immigration will increase the U.S. population and all those new people will use more resources and take up more space. But it makes less sense in the era of climate change. People will contribute to global warming wherever they are, and it would seem to be a wiser idea to move more of them to countries that are better equipped to handle the impacts.</p>
<p>And while it’s true, as restrictionists often note, that immigrants have children at a faster rate than native-born Americans, their birth rates are also <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/11/29/u-s-birth-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-decline-is-greatest-among-immigrants/">falling at a faster rate</a>. Leaving people in places with less economic opportunity and less access to healthcare and family planning is a poor way to slow population growth.</p>
<p>From a political perspective, it makes sense that advocates like Tanton want to attract more liberals to the cause, but associating immigration concerns with the environment is an odd choice. In a recent <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx">Gallup poll</a>, 15 percent of Americans said immigration was the country’s most important problem, more than unemployment or healthcare. Only 1 percent were most concerned about the environment, so using the environment to make the case for border security seems tactically dubious. And given that 74 percent of Swiss rejected Ecopop’s referendum, which was also strongly opposed by the country’s Green Party, the argument doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction abroad either.</p>Tue, 02 Dec 2014 19:43:46 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/switzerland_s_ecopop_referendum_and_the_sierra_club_s_flirtations_with_nativism.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-02T19:43:46ZNews and PoliticsNobody Buys the Environmentalist Case Against Immigration236141202001immigrationenvironmentJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/02/switzerland_s_ecopop_referendum_and_the_sierra_club_s_flirtations_with_nativism.htmlfalsefalsefalseNobody Buys the Environmentalist Case Against ImmigrationNobody Buys the Environmentalist Case Against ImmigrationPhoto by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty ImagesPeople stand next to a banner reading 'False ecology, real xenophobia, Ecopop no!' during a demonstration on November 30, 2014 in Lausanne.&nbsp;U.N. Torture Committee Blasts U.S. Over Police Shootings and Gitmohttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/u_n_torture_committee_blasts_u_s_over_police_shootings_and_gitmo.html
<p>Six years after Barack Obama was elected, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-on-economic-crisis-transition/">pledging to</a> “make sure that we don't torture” as “part and parcel of an effort to regain America’s moral stature in the world,” the U.S. still isn’t in full compliance with the international convention against torture. That’s <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/guantanamo/article4198431.html">according to a U.N. committee</a>, citing both ongoing issues surrounding U.S. treatment of terrorism detainees and concerns about civilian law enforcement practices that are particularly salient given the recent events in Ferguson, Missouri.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/guantanamo/article4198431.html">The report</a> is the U.N. Committee Against Torture’s first review of the U.S. since 2006. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/obama_administration_clarifies_stance_on_convention_against_torture_is_the.html">There was controversy</a> in the lead-up to the U.S. testimony to the Geneva-based committee about how expansively the Obama administration would interpret the treaty, which the Bush administration had controversially argued did not apply to the U.S. military or to CIA prisons overseas. In the end, officials told the committee that the treaty’s prohibitions on torture apply “wherever the United States exercises governmental authority,” a definition that includes military facilities but not necessarily the kind of “black site” prisons the CIA operated on the sovereign territory of other nations during the Bush years. U.S. officials argue that this doesn’t mean the there’s wiggle room on torture, which in any case is prohibited under laws passed by Congress. Rather, they’re just concerned about setting a precedent for the scope of other treaties with similar jurisdictional language.</p>
<p>The committee didn’t buy it. The U.N. group was “dismayed” by the U.S. position, which, in the future, could “permit interpretations incompatible with the absolute prohibition of torture and ill-treatment.” While the U.S. is no longer using Bush-era techniques like waterboarding on detainees, the committee lamented “the ongoing failure to fully investigate allegations of torture and ill-treatment” as part of the war on terror, as well as the failure to provide more information about the now-shuttered network of secret interrogation facilities.</p>
<p>The committee also expressed concern about “physical separation,” an interrogation technique permitted by the U.S. Army Field Manual, which involves preventing a prisoner from communicating with other detainees. The <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/05/bagram-what-appendix-m-says-about-interrogation/56772/">manual stresses</a> that this&nbsp;“must not preclude the detainee getting four hours of continuous sleep every 24 hours.” Some members of the committee <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/world/europe/un-commission-presses-us-on-torture.html">argued</a> that this constitutes sleep deprivation, though the testifying U.S. officials argued that four hours of sleep should be read as an absolute minimum rather than a recommendation.</p>
<p>The report also raps the U.S. for continuing to hold detainees without charge at Guantanamo. Just last week, the U.S. <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/guantanamo/article4063399.html">finally released</a> Saudi detainee Muhammad Zahrani, the “forever prisoner,” who had been held without charge since 2002. That leaves 142 people still in custody at the facility.</p>
<p>While U.S. compliance with the treaty is usually discussed in terms of counterterrorism practices, a large part of the report concerns civilian law enforcement issues. Those include prison rape, the treatment of asylum seekers, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2014/04/clayton_lockett_s_botched_execution_the_grim_but_predictable_result_of_oklahoma.html">capital punishment methods</a> that cause prolonged suffering, life sentences for juvenile offenders, solitary confinement in prisons, as well as “numerous reports of police brutality and excessive use of force by law enforcement officials, in particular against persons belonging to certain racial and ethnic groups, immigrants and LGBTI individuals, racial profiling by police and immigration offices, and growing militarization of policing activities.”</p>
<p>Last month, the parents of Michael Brown <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/11/us/ferguson-brown-parents-u-n-/">traveled to Geneva</a> to testify before the committee. While the report doesn’t mention Brown’s case specifically, it does express “deep concern at the frequent and recurrent police shootings or fatal pursuits of unarmed black individuals” and the “alleged difficulties to hold police officers and their employers accountable for abuses.”</p>
<p>How much will this report matter? International concerns about U.S. law enforcement have had some real world effects. For instance, many European drug companies are prohibited by law from shipping chemicals used in lethal injections to the United States, a policy that may perversely have led to several <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/30/clayton_lockett_execution_are_the_eu_export_controls_on_death_penalty_drugs.html">painful, botched executions</a>. A number of countries, including <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-01-17-Extradition_N.htm">Mexico</a> and <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/french-demand-deal-extradite-u-s-vows-death-penalty-article-1.910311">France</a>, also won’t extradite murder suspects to the United States unless they receive assurances that they won’t receive the death penalty.</p>
<p>U.S. lawmakers have made it <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/obama_s_new_international_climate_change_strategy_how_do_you_negotiate_treaties.html">abundantly clear</a> that they’re not that concerned about how other countries view our human rights practices, and it’s not ridiculous to say we shouldn’t worry about being judged according to the standards of a torture treaty to which Uzbekistan and Sudan are signatories. But if you’re making a case for “moral stature,” as President-elect Obama once put it, America’s treatment of prisoners isn’t the place to start.</p>Mon, 01 Dec 2014 20:57:43 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/u_n_torture_committee_blasts_u_s_over_police_shootings_and_gitmo.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-01T20:57:43ZNews and PoliticsU.N. Torture Committee Blasts U.S. Over Police Shootings and Gitmo236141201002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/u_n_torture_committee_blasts_u_s_over_police_shootings_and_gitmo.htmlfalsefalsefalseU.N. Torture Committee Blasts U.S. Over Police Shootings and GitmoU.N. Torture Committee Blasts U.S. Over Police Shootings and GitmoPhoto by Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesNot quite there yet.&nbsp;The U.S. Is Now Beating Europe as a Destination for Immigrantshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/oecd_for_the_first_time_in_a_decade_the_u_s_is_beating_europe_as_a_destination.html
<p>According to a new analysis by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the EU has fallen behind the U.S. as a destination for immigrants for the first time in more than a decade. The <em>Financial Times </em><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/616da3e6-792e-11e4-a57d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3KejvrRA1">reports</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
According to the OECD’s annual International Migration Outlook, released on Monday, the U.S. had 1.03 million permanent migrants in 2012 against the 948,200 who arrived in the EU’s 28 member countries.
</blockquote>
<p>Opponents of immigration in Europe may applaud this, but it should be a cause for long-term concern in a continent with both high levels of out-migration and continuously falling birthrates.</p>
<p>After-effects of the Eurozone crisis are almost certainly the reason for this trend. The countries hit worst, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, all saw major drops in immigration. Ireland, which had become a net importer of people during the “Celtic Tiger” years of the late 1990s and early 2000s, saw an astounding 73 percent drop in the number of new arrivals between 2007 and 2012. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/26/the_stories_you_missed_in_2012">emigration from Ireland hit</a> its highest level since the 19<sup>th</sup> century.&nbsp; On the other hand, <a href="http://www.dw.de/oecd-asylum-seekers-and-migrants-increasing-in-germany/a-18103723">the still robust German economy</a> has led to increased immigration every year for the past four years.</p>
<p>While economics are the main culprit here, the political climate around immigration in Europe, which has seen anti-immigrant right-wing parties <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/27/euroskeptics_gain_in_eu_parliament_elections_the_real_threat_to_europe_isn.html">gain unprecedented influence</a> in both national and EU political institutions, is also surely a contributing factor. Not that America’s immigration debated has been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.html">particularly rational or enlightened</a> over the past few years, but for now, relative economic strength seems to be making America the more attractive destination for foreigners. It would be nice if American politicians thought of that as something to be proud of.&nbsp;</p>Mon, 01 Dec 2014 20:22:37 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/oecd_for_the_first_time_in_a_decade_the_u_s_is_beating_europe_as_a_destination.htmlJoshua Keating2014-12-01T20:22:37ZNews and PoliticsThe U.S. Is Now Beating Europe as a Destination for Immigrants236141201001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/12/01/oecd_for_the_first_time_in_a_decade_the_u_s_is_beating_europe_as_a_destination.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe U.S. Is Now Beating Europe as a Destination for ImmigrantsThe U.S. Is Now Beating Europe as a Destination for ImmigrantsPhoto by John Moore/Getty ImagesImmigrants take oath of citizenship to the United States on Nov. 20, 2014 in Newark, New Jersey.From Russia With Cashhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/26/from_russia_with_cash.html
<p>French President Francois Hollande <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30190069">announced on Tuesday</a> that, due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, France is indefinitely suspending the planned shipment of two Mistral-class helicopter carrier ships to Russia. The decision could be a costly one—Russia <a href="http://sputniknews.com/military/20141126/1015202452.html">will likely sue</a> over the breach of the $1.6 billion contract for the ships—but it still seems like a no-brainer that a European country shouldn’t be selling military hardware to Russia at the same time that Russia is under EU sanction for military activities.</p>
<p>Not everyone saw it that way. Marine Le Pen, whose far-right, anti-immigrant National Front party has had a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/28/front-national-wins-seats-french-senate-first-time">remarkable run</a> of electoral success lately, has <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2014/09/04/marine-le-pen-criticises-frances-decision-to-halt-mistral-warship-sale-to-russia/">staunchly opposed</a> suspending the Mistral deal. Like a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/19/europe_s_far_right_and_putin_how_the_continent_s_extremist_parties_fell.html">number of other</a> far-right European leaders, she’s been a vocal supporter of Russia throughout the Ukraine crisis and blamed the EU for starting a “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/12/us-ukraine-crisis-le-pen-russia-idUSBREA3B09I20140412">new Cold War</a>.” She has also traveled to Moscow multiple times since taking over the party from her father in 2011.</p>
<p>Supporting Russia may have been good business for Le Pen’s party. The National Front is <a href="http://euobserver.com/foreign/126638">now facing criticism</a> for a 9 million euro ($11.3 million) loan it received from the First Czech Russian Bank, an obscure Moscow institution owned by Roman Popov, described by EUObserver as a “financier with close ties to the Russian political establishment.”* The party denies that the loan came with any strings attached. It says it <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20141123-france-far-right-turns-russian-lender-national-front-marine-le-pen/">needs the money</a> to cover its campaigning expenses for upcoming national elections in 2017 and it was refused loans from French and European banks. The National Front has only about a tenth of the annual cash inflows of the ruling Socialist Party.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the whole thing looks pretty fishy given Le Pen’s cozy relationship with Russia, and it’s an odd investment for a financial institution with no ties to France that as of last year had assets of just $771 million.</p>
<p>There’s a history of this sort of thing in French politics. In 2013, prosecutors opened an investigation into reports that Muammar al-Qaddafi’s government <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign">had funded former</a> President Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign. That year, Sarkozy <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/11/world/europe/11france.html">invited the Libyan leader</a> to Paris for a high-profile official visit, a move the prompted criticism, including within his own government. The investigation is still ongoing. Sarkozy has strongly denied the charge and the investigation, which at one point involved the former president's <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/us-france-sarkozy-idUSBREA2B0ED20140312">phone being tapped</a>, is still ongoing.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Le Pen, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/08/le-pen-tops-presidential-poll-for-first-time-ever">who is leading</a> in some recent presidential polls—as previously stated, the next election isn’t until 2017—probably won’t suffer too much from this. As Leonid Bershidsky of Bloomberg <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-24/russias-big-bet-on-the-french-far-right">points out</a>, “She has never made a secret of her support for Putin, and her voters won't be scandalized.” But coming on the <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/far-right-mep-accused-acting-russian-spy-273444">heels of accusations</a> that an MEP from Hungary’s Jobbik party accepted money from Russian intelligence services, it will add to suspicions that the surging European far right is acting as the Kremlin’s mouthpiece within the EU.</p>
<p>Remarkably, the alleged National Front loan isn’t the most embarrassing story about a right-wing European party in the past few weeks. Britain’s UKIP has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping">formed an alliance</a> in the European Parliament with an MEP whose party leader uses racial slurs, justifies rape, and denies the Holocaust. His support will give UKIP’s grouping within the parliament the numbers it needs—25 MEPs from seven countries—to receive taxpayer funding. The alliance-of-convenience doesn’t seem to have bothered British voters, who gave UKIP its <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/ukips-mark-reckless-wins-rochester-by-election/">second member of parliament</a> in a by-election.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Nov. 26, 2014:</strong> This post originally misstated that the First Czech Russian Bank lent the National Front 9 billion euros. The bank lent the party 9 million euros.</em></p>Wed, 26 Nov 2014 20:05:47 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/26/from_russia_with_cash.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-26T20:05:47ZNews and PoliticsIs Russia Bankrolling France’s Far Right?&nbsp;236141126001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/26/from_russia_with_cash.htmlfalsefalsefalseIs Russia Bankrolling France’s Far Right?&nbsp;Is Russia Bankrolling France’s Far Right?&nbsp;Photo by KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty ImagesFrance's National Front leader Marine Le Pen smiles before a meeting with the speaker of the Russian parliament Sergei Naryshkin during their meeting in Moscow on June 19, 2013.&nbsp;What Will the U.S. and Israel Do Once Every Other Country Recognizes Palestine?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/what_will_the_u_s_and_israel_do_once_every_other_country_recognizes_palestine.html
<p>The European Parliament today postponed a vote on whether to recognize a Palestinian state, but the vote will likely come in mid-December. The <em>Jerusalem Post </em><a href="http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Divided-EU-Parliament-postpones-vote-on-Palestine-recognition-382807">reports that</a> Israeli officials say such a move would be purely symbolic and not reflective of public opinion, though Israeli diplomats also lobbied hard for the postponement.</p>
<p>The move comes after Sweden <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/10/30/sweden_recognizes_palestine_biggest_country_in_western_europe_to_do_so.html">formally recognized</a> Palestine in October, becoming just the second Western European country after Iceland to do so. All that official recognition means, really, is that it’s the official position of the Swedish government that Palestine is a country. But in a situation this politically fraught, that means a lot. “The purpose of Sweden's recognition is to contribute to a future in which Israel and Palestine can live side by side in peace and security,” Sweden’s minister for foreign affairs <a href="http://www.government.se/sb/d/19375/a/249204">explained in a press release</a> that also touts “a five-year aid strategy including substantially increased support to Palestinian state-building.” U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, for his part, <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2509c604a7b64d23a2535b17c07f59c1/un-chief-palestinian-recognition-gains-momentum">said on Monday</a> that these unilateral recognitions are a sign of “a collective [international] failure” to make progress in the peace talks.</p>
<p>Elsewhere in Europe, the parliaments of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/world/europe/british-parliament-palestinian-state.html">Britain</a>, <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/irish-parliament-calls-on-government-to-recognize-palestine/">Ireland</a>, and <a href="http://www.jpost.com/International/Spanish-lawmakers-pass-symbolic-motion-on-eventual-recognition-of-Palestine-382189">Spain</a> have all passed resolutions urging their governments to recognize a Palestinian state, and France <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20141123-france-palestine-netanyahu-state-recognise/">will vote on a similar resolution</a> next week, though there’s a bit more opposition there. These are non-binding measures that urge recognition as part of a negotiated settlement, and unlike Sweden’s move, don’t actually change government policy. They are nonetheless seen as the first step toward full recognition, and were strongly opposed by the Israeli government.</p>
<p>Europe is behind the curve here. The bulk of U.N. member states—135 out of 192—<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine#mediaviewer/File:Palestine_recognition_only.svg">already recognize Palestine</a>, including the majority of countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. These things have a way of gathering momentum. Most of the countries in South America flipped positions to <a href="http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/05/why_are_so_many_south_american_countires_recognizing_palestine">recognize Palestine in rapid succession</a> in 2011. For now, the European votes, with the exception of Sweden, have all been non-binding parliamentary measures, but if a large European power decides to recognize, the others could follow suit quickly.</p>
<p>The Palestinian Authority has actively courted recognition from these governments, but how much does it really matter? As long as the U.S. has a veto on the Security Council, Palestine isn’t getting full U.N. membership, the gold standard of international statehood. The Palestinian Authority announced yesterday that it was <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/PA-delays-Palestinian-statehood-bid-at-UN-382663">delaying its planned U.N. bid</a> due in part to U.S. pressure.</p>
<p>But recognition is still important. It matters with regards to legitimacy that, for instance, Kosovo—not likely to become a U.N. member thanks to Russia’s veto—boasts recognition from <a href="http://www.kosovothanksyou.com/">110 countries</a> while <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/16/world/europe/16georgia.html">Abkhazia is bragging about its relations with Nauru</a>. (Pacific Islands are the very buyable swing voters of international recognition disputes. See China and Taiwan’s <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2004/nov/13/world/fg-vanuatu13">completely ridiculous wooing</a> of Vanuatu for just one example.)</p>
<p>The risk here, for the United States and Israel, is the Cuban-ization of Palestinian statehood. Every year for the past 23 years, the U.N. General Assembly has voted to condemn the U.S. embargo on Cuba, and every time the U.S. has looked increasingly isolated and ridiculous. This year, only Israel voted with the U.S. against the condemnation, with Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Micronesia abstaining. (Those islands again.)</p>
<p>The majority of countries worldwide might recognize Palestine, but non-recognition is still the mainstream position among rich Western countries. As the Cuba example shows, the U.S. is more than willing to stick to an unpopular position even if it’s opposed by virtually every other government on earth. But Israel doesn’t want to get to the point where it’s standing alongside the U.S., Micronesia, and no one else.</p>Tue, 25 Nov 2014 21:57:01 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/what_will_the_u_s_and_israel_do_once_every_other_country_recognizes_palestine.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-25T21:57:01ZNews and PoliticsWhat Will the U.S. and Israel Do Once Every Other Country Recognizes Palestine?236141125002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/what_will_the_u_s_and_israel_do_once_every_other_country_recognizes_palestine.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhat Will the U.S. and Israel Do Once Every Other Country Recognizes Palestine?What Will the U.S. and Israel Do Once Every Other Country Recognizes Palestine?Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP/Getty ImagesA Palestinian flag on display outside the Palestinian Representative Office in Stockholm on Oct. 30, 2014.China on Ferguson: Hey, Nobody’s Perfecthttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/china_and_russia_react_to_ferguson.html
<p>As <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/19/the_world_s_dictators_love_the_unrest_in_ferguson.html">they have</a> since the beginning of the crisis, countries that frequently find themselves on the receiving end of criticism from the U.S. government over their treatment of protesters and ethnic minorities are taking the opportunity to put in their 2 cents on Ferguson.</p>
<p>As the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>’s <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/11/25/china-on-ferguson-violence-theres-no-such-thing-as-perfection/">Charles Hutzler notes</a>, China’s ministry of foreign affairs almost never comments on the internal politics of other countries, but spokeswoman Hua Chunying made and exception when asked about Ferguson by an American reporter:</p>
<blockquote>
“The case you mention is a U.S. internal affair. As the spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry I will make no comment on that,” she told reporters. Then, she went further.
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
“But I would like to say that there’s no such thing as perfection when it comes to human rights regardless of whatever country you’re in,” said Ms. Hua. “We have to improve the record of human rights and promote the cause of human rights. We can learn from each other in this area.”
</blockquote>
<p><em>BuzzFeed</em>’s Max Seddon <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/russia-is-trolling-the-us-over-ferguson-yet-again">rounds up some reactions</a> from Russian state media to the latest events from the “<a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/8/19/ferguson-foreignmediaviews.html">Afromaidan</a>,” a reference to the “Euromaidan” protests that led to the overthrow Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, earlier this year. Seddon notes that coverage of Ferguson led every news broadcast on Tuesday, and that RT, the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda network, <a href="http://rt.com/usa/">reported live</a> from the scene. Sergei Naryshkin, chairman of the State Duma, said the United States had brought the events on itself by “plunging the world into the chaos of its one-sided diktat.” The pro-Kremlin website Lenta.Ru, with the Russian media’s characteristic racial sensitivity, <a href="http://lenta.ru/onlines/2014/11/25/ferguson/">describes</a> the unrest in Missouri as a “colored” revolution, a reference to the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colour_revolution">color</a>” revolutions that broke out in several post-communist countries in the early 2000s and have been a consistent object of derision from the Russian government.</p>
<p>Iran’s Press TV has been <a href="http://www.presstv.com/section/351020306.html">devoting heavy</a> coverage to Ferguson as well. So far, though, the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei—who has <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/24/ferguson-china-russia-world-media/14524517/">used the Ferguson Twitter hashtag</a> to blast the U.S. for its hypocrisy on human rights—hasn’t weighed in yet.&nbsp;</p>Tue, 25 Nov 2014 16:17:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/china_and_russia_react_to_ferguson.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-25T16:17:00ZNews and PoliticsChinese Government on Ferguson: Hey, Nobody’s Perfect236141125001fergusonJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/25/china_and_russia_react_to_ferguson.htmlfalsefalsefalseChinese Government on Ferguson: Hey, Nobody’s PerfectChinese Government on Ferguson: Hey, Nobody’s PerfectPhoto by Michael B. Thomas/AFP/Getty ImagesPolice officers breaks up a protest on West Florissant Road in Ferguson, Missouri, on Aug. 17, 2014.The Chinese Government’s Salt Monopoly Has Lasted for 2,600 Years. It’s About to End.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/the_chinese_government_s_salt_monopoly_has_lasted_for_2_600_years_it_s_about.html
<p>The Chinese government’s complete control over the sale of table salt, a policy that predates Confucius and the Great Wall, will soon be <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-11/20/content_18948526.htm">coming to an end</a>. The salt monopoly began during in the Qi state on the Shandong peninsula around the seventh<sup></sup> century BC and may have been the <a href="http://www.lasalle.edu/~mcinneshin/wk07/salt.htm">first ever state-controlled monopoly</a>. During the third<sup></sup> century BC, the Chinese imperial state sold salt at a markup, effectively levying a tax used to pay troops and, perhaps, the early stages of the Great Wall of China.</p>
<p>Several centuries, dynasties, and revolutions later, the world’s oldest monopoly is still in place. Under the policy’s <a href="http://qz.com/300264/the-worlds-oldest-monopoly-is-finally-coming-to-an-end/">current incarnation</a>, the China National Salt Industry Corp. designates who is authorized to produce salt and is the only entity allowed to sell it to consumers. These consumers often pay three to four times more than what the CNSIC does. The new plan will liberalize the industry and scrap price controls starting in 2016.</p>
<p>Despite the steep markup, Chinese consumers have <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/11/20/thank_you_china_salt_monopoly_food_safety">generally opposed</a> breaking up the monopoly, fearing it could lead to more food scandals, a problem that has <a href="http://www.scmp.com/topics/china-food-scandals">plagued the country</a> repeatedly in recent years. The worst of these, an incident in 2008 involving tainted milk powder, led to hundreds of thousands of babies being sickened. On the other hand, the salt monopoly has also contributed to a vast black-market trade, so it may be a bit of a wash as far as food safety goes.</p>
<p>China is the world’s largest salt consumer, accounting for about of a quarter of global demand thanks both to its population of 1.4 billion and its growing chemical industry.</p>
<p>Thanks to growing demand and the ongoing liberalization of the Chinese economy, it seemed inevitable that the salt monopoly would bite the dust sooner or later. But old habits die hard, and this habit was older than most.</p>Mon, 24 Nov 2014 20:13:54 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/the_chinese_government_s_salt_monopoly_has_lasted_for_2_600_years_it_s_about.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-24T20:13:54ZNews and PoliticsThe Chinese Government’s Salt Monopoly Has Lasted for 2,600 Years. It’s About to End.236141124002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/the_chinese_government_s_salt_monopoly_has_lasted_for_2_600_years_it_s_about.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Chinese Government’s Salt Monopoly Has Lasted for 2,600 Years. It’s About to End.The Chinese Government’s Salt Monopoly Has Lasted for 2,600 Years. It’s About to End.Photo by AFP/AFP/Getty ImagesA worker carves a statue of Chairman Mao out of sea salt on April 24, 2013.How Long Will the Iran Window Stay Open?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/iran_talks_extended_it_s_good_that_they_re_still_talking_but_it_ll_be_very.html
<p>With <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/11/at-iran-nuke-talks-optimism-fades-to-hope/">Monday’s news</a> that negotiators have agreed to extend talks over Iran’s nuclear program for seven more months, expect everyone to feel that their positions have been vindicated. Yes, there was no deal in place by Monday’s deadline, but supporters of an agreement will say that progress is progress, jaw-jaw is always better than war-war, and continued negotiations, however frustrating, are worth it if there’s even a sliver of a chance of a deal. Or there’s the reaction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-nods-in-approval-as-iran-nuke-talks-extended/?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter">he approved of the extension</a> since “the deal that Iran was pushing for was terrible.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, conservative critics in both Washington and Tehran will see this as a sign that the other side was never serious about compromising, and will decry the negotiators for failing to reach an agreement that they would probably have opposed anyway.</p>
<p>The sides still seem far apart on the number of centrifuges Iran will be allowed to maintain, when sanctions will end, and how long and intrusive international inspections will be. Even so, it counts as progress that all parties, including Israel, find the current status quo better than the state of affairs before last November, when an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/24/iran-nuclear-deal-west-sanctions-relief">interim accord was reached</a> and this negotiating process began. It hasn’t been that long since airstrikes on Iran seemed like a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/308186/">real and imminent possibility</a>.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the economic pressure on Iran <a href="http://time.com/3601302/iran-economic-future/">will continue to grow</a>, while the country’s nuclear program—at least, as far as we know—remains frozen. (An IAEA report issued Monday found that Iran is in compliance with the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/24/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0J81A620141124?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=Iran&amp;virtualBrandChannel=10209&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter&amp;dlvrit=59365">interim agreement</a> reached last year.)</p>
<p>On the other hand, the window for a real agreement won’t stay open forever and the longer the talks last, the more opportunities their opponents will have to derail them. Obama’s ability to promise Iran sanctions relief without the support of Congress was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.html">slightly dubious</a> even before Republicans retook the Senate. Earlier this month, Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bob Corker <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/us-iran-nuclear-congress-idUSKCN0IX2SC20141113">tried unsuccessfully</a> to force a vote on a bill that would impose new sanctions on Iran if an agreement wasn’t reached by today. More such measures from Congress can be expected next year, and it’s going to be tough for the White House to continue deflecting them without demonstrable progress from the talks.</p>
<p>Over in Iran, President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Javad Zarif, have already been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/04/hassan-rouhani-iran-nuclear-talks">under pressure from hard-liners</a> who charge them with trying to sell out the country’s interests for sanctions relief. It’s also still an open question whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would approve a final deal.</p>
<p>Rouhani came into office promising to bolster the country’s economy by improving relations with the West. Despite last year’s agreement, he has little to show for that promise. In 2016, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/how-irans-upcoming-election-drives-nuclear-diplomacy/">elections will be held</a> for both the country’s parliament and the assembly of experts that will choose the 78-year-old Supreme Leader’s successor. It seems likely that both contests will bring more conservative hard-liners into power, which could limit Rouhani’s room to maneuver even before they take place.&nbsp;</p>
<p>It’s a good thing, then, that the clock continues to tick on negotiations, but it’s not going to continue forever. And things could get very scary very quickly when time finally does run out.</p>Mon, 24 Nov 2014 19:40:14 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/iran_talks_extended_it_s_good_that_they_re_still_talking_but_it_ll_be_very.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-24T19:40:14ZNews and PoliticsIt’s Good That the Iran Talks Are Continuing, But It’ll Be Very Bad If There’s No Deal Soon236141124001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/24/iran_talks_extended_it_s_good_that_they_re_still_talking_but_it_ll_be_very.htmlfalsefalsefalseIt’s Good That the Iran Talks Are Continuing, But It’ll Be Very Bad If There’s No Deal SoonIt’s Good That the Iran Talks Are Continuing, But It’ll Be Very Bad If There’s No Deal SoonPhoto by Ronald Zak/AFP/Getty ImagesLet’s not do this again in seven months.&nbsp;Can Obama Get a Climate Commitment Out of India?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/obama_heading_to_india_can_the_u_s_get_a_climate_commitment_out_of_narendra.html
<p>The White House <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/21/statement-press-secretary-president-s-travel-india">announced Friday</a> that President Obama will visit India in January to serve as “chief guest” at the country’s Republic Day celebrations. A foreign head of state is typically invited to the celebration, and as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pointed out in a <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/535794981332459521">chummy tweet</a>, he’ll be the first U.S. president ever to receive the honor. The visit will also make Obama the first U.S. president ever to visit <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-president-obama-to-return-to-india-this-time-as-chief-guest-at-republic-day/articleshow/45233606.cms">India twice while</a> in office. Remarkably, there have been only <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/09/26-us-india-relations-in-14-charts-madan">six U.S. presidential visits</a> to the country ever.</p>
<p>Relations between the two countries were at a nadir at the end of last year, when India was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/17/devyani_khobragade_the_nanny_scandal_tearing_the_u_s_and_india_apart.html">vowing retaliation</a> for the arrest of an Indian diplomat in New York. Things have improved since Modi took office in May, which is pretty ironic given that he was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/11/narendra_modi_the_man_most_likely_to_be_india_s_next_prime_minister_is_banned.html">barred from even entering</a> the United States until this year. Earlier this month, the two countries <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/business/international/us-india-agreement-clears-way-for-global-trade-deal.html">reached a deal</a> a major deal on trade and food subsidies.</p>
<p>That news was understandably overshadowed by the U.S.-China climate pact but capped off Obama’s surprisingly productive Asia trip. This India visit is also worth watching on the climate front, coming at the beginning of a year when a new U.N. climate treaty is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference">due to be negotiated</a>. The U.S.-China deal has now put the spotlight on India, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter.</p>
<p>Obama and Modi <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-obama-india-20141001-story.html">agreed to</a> “consult and cooperate closely” on climate change during the Indian premier’s visit to Washington last month, which is pretty vague but still an improvement after years of clashes between the two governments on the issue.</p>
<p>It’s extremely unlikely that India will agree to the kind of emissions cap China signed on to during Obama’s visit. It lags well behind China on both emissions per capita and level of economic development. As <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-climate-deal-puts-india-in-spotlight-1416265911">just one example</a>, 99.8 percent of Chinese people have access to electricity, versus just 70 percent for India, and the government has made electrification a major priority. Indian officials have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/world/asia/25climate.html">said flat out</a> that they expect the country’s emissions to continue increasing.</p>
<p>But there’s still room for cooperation, perhaps on renewable energy investment, where Modi’s government has been making <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/09/india-eyes-100-billion-investment-renewable-energy/">some major commitments</a>. India, along with China, has also signaled that it will <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/india-china-said-to-drop-opposition-to-limits-on-hfcs-in-talks.html">drop its opposition</a> to expanding an exiting treaty to cut the use of hydrofluorocarbons, chemicals used in refrigeration that are even more potent in their greenhouse impact than carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>It would be a shock to see anything as major as the U.S.-China deal announced, but it will still be interesting to see if these two leaders can take advantage of the current era of good feelings to make some progress.</p>Fri, 21 Nov 2014 21:55:07 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/obama_heading_to_india_can_the_u_s_get_a_climate_commitment_out_of_narendra.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-21T21:55:07ZNews and PoliticsCan Obama Get a Climate Commitment Out of India?236141121002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/obama_heading_to_india_can_the_u_s_get_a_climate_commitment_out_of_narendra.htmlfalsefalsefalseCan Obama Get a Climate Commitment Out of India?Can Obama Get a Climate Commitment Out of India?Photo by Alex Wong/Getty ImagesPresident Obama meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office on Sept. 30, 2014.Can Putin Turn the ISIS Mess to Russia’s Advantage?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/can_putin_turn_the_isis_mess_to_russia_s_advantage.html
<p>Sputnik News, the <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/11/10/kremlin-launches-news-agency-sputnik/">slick new-media rebranding</a> of the venerable Russian news wire RIA-Novosti, <a href="http://sputniknews.com/business/20141121/1015000522.html">reports</a> that Russia has called on the U.N. Security Council to ban purchases of oil from terrorist-controlled regions, including the territory held by ISIS. This isn’t a surprising position, but it does draw some attention to Russia’s interesting outsider role in the international anti-ISIS effort.</p>
<p>While the U.S. and Russia have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/world/europe/us-and-russia-agree-to-share-more-intelligence-on-isis.html">pledged to share intelligence</a> on the group, Russia—one of the main international backers of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian government—is not a member of the U.S.-led “<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lawmakers-weigh-giving-obama-authority-to-wage-war-against-islamic-state/2014/09/10/59f057b0-38fd-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html">broad coalition</a>” against ISIS announced last month. As one Russian foreign ministry official recently <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/putin-considers-throwing-russia-isis-fight-report-n208776">put it</a>, “We do not expect any invitations and we are not going to buy entry tickets.”</p>
<p>Russia has taken the position that airstrikes against ISIS in Syria <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/11/syrian_government_go_ahead_bomb_our_country.html">ought to have been debated</a> in the U.N. Security Council, where Moscow enjoys veto power. Russia has also relished the opportunity to say <em>I told you so</em>, with Foreign Minister <a href="http://rt.com/news/190200-lavrov-isis-west-miscalculation/">Sergei Lavrov arguing</a> that ISIS is made up of the same rebels that the U.S. and other Western countries were supporting against Assad. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/reset-u-s-russian-relations-impossible-medvedev-says-n226126">made much of his umbrage</a> at President Obama’s <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/24/remarks-president-obama-address-united-nations-general-assembly">speech to the U.N. General Assembly</a> in September, which listed Russian aggression in Ukraine (along with ISIS and the Ebola virus) as major international threats. Discussing the diplomatic puzzle presented by Syria, a senior U.S. administration official <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/12/politics/obama-syria-strategy-review/index.html?c=&amp;page=0">recently told CNN</a>, “The Russians are not our friend here.”&nbsp;</p>
<p>So there’s little reason to think Russia will formally join the U.S.-led coalition. But there are some ways that this all could work to Moscow’s advantage.</p>
<p>For one thing, the fight against ISIS could provide a pretext for why countries in Russia’s backyard need its “protection.” Edward Lemon writes at EurasiaNet that Russian officials seem to be <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/70866">playing up the potential threat</a> that Central Asian ISIS fighters could pose to their home countries. Estimates vary wildly, but there are almost certainly <a href="http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/infographics/26584940.html">dozens to hundreds</a> of fighters from Central Asian countries as well as Russia fighting with ISIS in Syria. Russia has military assets in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but would like to expand that presence. As Lemon writes, “Russian officials have often stressed that the threat to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which do not host Russian troops, is particularly acute.” These governments have, for years, been fighting the al-Qaida-linked militant group <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Movement_of_Uzbekistan">Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan</a>.</p>
<p>(Ironically, some of the Central Asians fighting in Syria appear to have been radicalized in Russia rather than on the battlefield. Olim Yusuf, a Tajik ISIS member captured in September, says he was recruited while working on a building site in Russia. Many Central Asians travel to Russia for low-wage work, and often face discrimination and xenophobia.)</p>
<p>It also seems conceivable that Syria could once again provide the venue for a Russian diplomatic victory. (<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/09/09/russia_suggests_syria_give_up_chemical_weapons_after_kerry_statement_is.html">Remember when</a> a John Kerry gaffe and a last-minute intervention from Russia led to a deal to remove Assad’s chemical weapons and forestall U.S. airstrikes? I know, that seems like four wars ago.) It <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.html">seems sadly inevitable</a> that the U.S. will eventually come to terms with Assad remaining in power and go back to trying to push for a peace deal in Syria among the various anti-ISIS forces in the country. If that happens, U.S. diplomats may, much to their chagrin, need to call on Russia to help get Assad on board.</p>
<p>And generally speaking, a leader like Putin who tends to see great-power competition in zero-sum terms, presumably appreciates the fact that U.S. attention and resources continue to be tied down in the Middle East.</p>Fri, 21 Nov 2014 20:40:01 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/can_putin_turn_the_isis_mess_to_russia_s_advantage.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-21T20:40:01ZNews and PoliticsCan Putin Turn the ISIS Mess to Russia’s Advantage?236141121001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/21/can_putin_turn_the_isis_mess_to_russia_s_advantage.htmlfalsefalsefalseCan Putin Turn the ISIS Mess to Russia’s Advantage?Can Putin Turn the ISIS Mess to Russia’s Advantage?Photo by Andrey Smirnov/AFP/Getty ImagesA man holds pictures of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a rally in support of Syrian regime in front of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, on Oct. 19, 2012.Are We on the Verge of a Polio-Free Africa?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_polio_free_africa.html
<p>With all of the news about Ebola’s rapid, dispiriting spread through West Africa, you may have missed an encouraging public health development: The continent appears tantalizingly close to fully eradicating polio, once one of the world’s most feared and destructive diseases.</p>
<p>A U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6346a5.htm?s_cid=mm6346a5_x">progress report</a> on Nigeria released Thursday notes that just six cases of wild poliovirus have been diagnosed in the country this year, compared with 49 during the same period last year. Nigeria is considered particularly critical since, as the report notes, the country’s northern region has served as “a reservoir for WPV reintroduction into 26 previously polio-free countries.” Nigeria now <a href="http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx">hasn’t seen a case</a> of polio since July and the African region as a whole hasn’t seen one since a case in Somalia in August.</p>
<p>The good news follows some other positive developments, including reports that two of the three strains of wild poliovirus have <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6211/795.full">likely been eradicated</a> and India being declared <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/27/health/india-polio-3-years/">officially polio-free</a> by the WHO. This is all welcome news given the concerns <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/05/who_warns_of_new_global_polio_crisis_how_terrorists_dictators_and_the_cia.html">earlier this year</a> that the disease was making a global comeback, including in several countries in Africa. Cameroon, for instance, saw a re-emergence of polio due in part to fears of vaccines and the disruption to the country’s health infrastructure caused by refugees fleeing conflict in the Central African Republic.</p>
<p>The most dramatic progress has come in Somalia, which saw 183 cases of polio last year and just six so far this year. This is likely due to a <a href="http://www.who.int/hac/crises/som/sitreps/somalia_sitrep_may_july2013.pdf">ramped-up vaccination effort</a> in the country in 2014, and the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/world/africa/shabab-somalia-fighters-leave-terror-group-behind.html">weakening</a> of the militant group al-Shabab, which was <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/somalia-parents-no-polio-vaccine-153121999.html">violently opposed to vaccination campaigns</a>.</p>
<p>We’re not quite out of the woods yet. It takes three years without a new case for the WHO to declare a country or region polio-free, and armed conflict in places like northern Nigeria and Somalia could continue to disrupt vaccination efforts. Nigeria’s Boko Haram has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/08/polio-workers-nigeria-shot-dead">gunned down polio workers</a> in the past.</p>
<p>The Ebola virus has also strained health resources and made vaccination against other diseases, including polio, far more complicated in the countries where it’s raging. On the bright side, the CDC report notes that the staff and infrastructure set up to address polio in Nigeria were critical in helping the country organize its <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.html">successful Ebola response</a>.</p>
<p>Now, with only the African and eastern Mediterranean regions (the latter of which includes the Middle East and Western Asia) waiting to be declared polio-free, we do seem to be inching closer to wiping the disease off the planet. That would make it only the second human disease, after smallpox, to be eliminated through vaccination.*</p>
<p>If the trends in Africa continue, it seems likely that polio will make its last stand in either Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the Taliban have waged a <a href="https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-pakistani-talibans-campaign-against-polio-vaccination">campaign of terror</a> against health workers, or in Syria and Iraq, where the civil war is helping the disease make a comeback.</p>
<p><strong><em>*Correction,&nbsp;Nov. 20, 2014:&nbsp;</em></strong><em>This post originally misstated that polio could be the second disease eradicated through vaccination. It could be the second&nbsp;human&nbsp;disease. Rinderpest, a viral infection affecting cattle, was formally declared eradicated in 2011.&nbsp;</em></p>Thu, 20 Nov 2014 21:57:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_polio_free_africa.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-20T21:57:00ZNews and PoliticsPolio Could Soon Be the Second Human Disease Eradicated by Vaccines236141120002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_polio_free_africa.htmlfalsefalsefalsePolio Could Soon Be the Second Human Disease Eradicated by VaccinesPolio Could Soon Be the Second Human Disease Eradicated by VaccinesPhoto by Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty ImagesA Somali baby is given a polio vaccination at a medical clinic in Mogadishu on April 24, 2013.&nbsp;Listen to the Ebola Charity Single That Isn’t Condescending Schlockhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/africa_stop_ebola_the_charity_single_that_isn_t_condescending_schlock.html
<p>My colleague Aisha Harris does a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2014/11/17/do_they_know_it_s_christmas_2014_remake_is_about_ebola_featuring_bono_sam.html">great job explaining</a> why Band Aid 30’s star-studded, Ebola-themed update of the 30-year-old charity single “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” is as cringe-inducing as its predecessors. Its lyrics are both condescending—perpetuating an image of Africa as an undifferentiated mass of suffering where there is “no peace and joy”—and borderline nonsensical: Liberia is predominantly Christian, as is Ethiopia, the subject of the original 1984 version of the song, so people there are presumably aware that it is Christmas. Guinea and Sierra Leone are predominantly Muslim, so the majority of people there probably don’t care.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w7jyVHocTk">This year’s video</a>, which features footage of a dying woman before transitioning to pop stars like Bono, Ed Sheeran, and One Direction dodging paparazzi on their way to the studio, has also been criticized as exploitative.</p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s hard to argue with success. Band Aid 30 is currently sitting at No. 10 on iTunes and has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/20/-sp-africa-stop-ebola-band-aid-alternative">already raised millions of dollars</a> for Ebola-related charities. As organizer Bob Geldof put it, “I don’t care if you like it, just buy it.”</p>
<p>Of course, there’s a way to support the fight against Ebola without endorsing Geldof’s schlock. Just <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/health/how-to-help-in-efforts-to-stem-ebolas-tide.html">give money directly</a> to one of any number of organizations doing difficult work on the ground in West Africa. But if you absolutely must have a musical accompaniment for your charitable donation, let me suggest the single “<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/fr/album/africa-stop-ebola-single/id935875876?ign-mpt=uo%3D4">Africa Stop Ebola</a>,” released last month by an organization of the same name.</p>
<p>Aside from being more pleasing to the ear, it’s a very different beast from “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” The artists are all West African, including the superstar Malian duo <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amadou_%26_Mariam">Amadou &amp; Mariam</a>, Malian chanteuse Oumou Sangare, and Ivorian reggae star Tiken Jah Fakoly. Only one African artist, Benin’s Angelique Kidjo, participated in Band Aid 30. The British-Ghanaian Afrobeat star Fuse ODG <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/19/turn-down-band-aid-bob-geldof-africa-fuse-odg">explained in the <em>Guardian</em> Wednesday</a> why he turned down Geldof’s invitation to participate after being “shocked and appalled” by the lyrics.</p>
<p>Unlike Band Aid’s platitudes, the lyrics, in French and several West African languages, are practical and aimed at people in the countries affected. Fakoly’s verse, for instance, tells listeners to trust doctors to help them if they feel sick. It’s one of a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/how-to-make-a-hit-ebola-song/378980/">number of pop songs</a> by local artists giving advice about the disease in recent months.</p>
<p>“Africa Stop Ebola” is <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/fr/album/africa-stop-ebola-single/id935875876?ign-mpt=uo%3D4">available on iTunes</a>, and all proceeds go to Medecins Sans Frontieres. No Bono involved.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html">Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</a></em></strong></p>Thu, 20 Nov 2014 17:36:07 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/africa_stop_ebola_the_charity_single_that_isn_t_condescending_schlock.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-20T17:36:07ZNews and PoliticsListen to the Ebola Charity Single That Isn’t Condescending Schlock236141120001ebolaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/20/africa_stop_ebola_the_charity_single_that_isn_t_condescending_schlock.htmlfalsefalsefalseListen to the Ebola Charity Single That Isn’t Condescending SchlockListen to the Ebola Charity Single That Isn’t Condescending SchlockKuwait’s Novel Solution for Undocumented Residents: Buy Them Citizenship in Some Other Countryhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/kuwait_s_novel_solution_for_undocumented_residents_buy_them_citizenship.html
<p>Later this week, President Obama will <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/11/19/obama-to-speak-friday-in-las-vegas-as-he-readies-new-immigration-policy/?wpisrc=al_comboPN">announce an executive action</a> meant to provide legal protections for up to 5 million undocumented migrants now living in the United States. Of course, the United States isn’t the only country with a large population of undocumented immigrants. Kuwait also announced a major new initiative this week, one that deals with the problem very differently.</p>
<p>More than 100,000 people in Kuwait belong to a group <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/06/13/kuwait-stateless-bidun-denied-rights">known as the “Bidun.”</a> The Bidun are mainly descended from nomadic Bedouin tribes who, for various reasons, failed to complete the application procedures for citizenship after Kuwait became an independent nation in 1961. Today, they are formally stateless.</p>
<p>Though many have lived in the country their entire lives, they are considered illegal migrants by the Kuwaiti government and have been repeatedly rebuffed in their subsequent requests for citizenship. As noncitizens, they are barred from holding most jobs in Kuwait and are denied access to health care and education, as well as many legal protections.</p>
<p>This month, however, the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/11/biduns-kuwait-offered-comoros-citizenship-2014111023324916726.html">Kuwaiti interior ministry announced</a> that the Bidun would soon be eligible for citizenship … but not in Kuwait. Rather, the government plans to bulk purchase “economic citizenship” for the Bidun from the East African island nation of Comoros, hundreds of miles away. Comoros, a member of the Arab League, has already provided passports to some stateless residents of the United Arab Emirates under a similar scheme. Before the program gets up and running, Comoros has to establish an embassy in Kuwait.</p>
<p>The Bidun wouldn’t actually live on the tiny islands, which have a population of just 800,000. Comoros is one of a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/11/13/you_can_now_be_maltese_for_865_000_which_countries_let_you_buy_citizenship.html">growing number of countries</a> that sell citizenship to foreigners in legally precarious situations, though this would be on an unprecedented scale. Kuwait argues that Comoran citizenship would formalize the status of the Bidun, allowing them access to jobs and social services.</p>
<p>This is <a href="http://opiniojuris.org/2014/11/13/kuwait-bulk-orders-comoros-citizenship-stateless-bidoons/">probably legal</a> under international law, but, as <em>Al Jazeera</em> reports, human rights groups <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/11/10/kuwait-statelesscitizenshipcomoros.html">are not impressed</a>. The scheme stops short of the full Kuwaiti citizenship that the Bidun have been demanding and, they argue, would effectively formalize their status as second-class citizens.</p>
<p>In reality, citizenship could indeed make the Bidun less secure. Countries are <a href="http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/10/stateless_in_the_united_states">prohibited by U.N. convention</a> from expelling stateless people, of whom there are an <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c155.html">estimated 10 million</a> around the world. But the treaty doesn’t cover citizens of other countries.</p>
<p>Legal niceties inside, the Bidun aren’t thrilled with the notion that their country is trying to make them citizens of someplace else. As one Bidun <a href="https://twitter.com/monakareem/status/531492369397731330">activist put it on Twitter</a>, “I went to bed West Asian, &amp; woke up east african. These are the miracles of arab regimes.”</p>Wed, 19 Nov 2014 21:25:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/kuwait_s_novel_solution_for_undocumented_residents_buy_them_citizenship.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-19T21:25:00ZNews and PoliticsKuwait’s Novel Solution for Undocumented Residents: Buy Them Citizenship in Some Other Country236141119002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/kuwait_s_novel_solution_for_undocumented_residents_buy_them_citizenship.htmlfalsefalsefalseKuwait’s Novel Solution for Undocumented Residents: Buy Them Citizenship in Some Other CountryKuwait’s Novel Solution for Undocumented Residents: Buy Them Citizenship in Some Other CountryPhoto by Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty ImagesComoros: nice beaches, cheap passports.Saudi Arabia Is Fighting an Oil War. But Who’s the Enemy?&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.html
<p>As my colleague Jordan Weissmann <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/11/18/_3_gasoline_drilling_for_oil_brought_down_prices.html">wrote Tuesday</a>, there are a number of factors behind the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/markets-oil-idUSL3N0T81XP20141118">continuing global slide</a> in oil prices, including North American production, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/07/energy_efficiency_vs_demand_destruction_the_big_problem_facing_america_s.html">increased energy efficiency</a>, Europe’s economic stagnation, and China’s slowing growth. But a big one is Saudi Arabia, which, to the dismay of fellow oil-producing nations, has <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/2693545-saudis-are-unlikely-to-cut-oil-production-at-the-opec-meeting-in-november">resisted pressure</a> to cut production in order to stabilize prices.</p>
<p>Ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna next week, there are some contradictory theories about why Saudi Arabia is content to keep oil cheap for the time being. One is that the Saudis <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/us-shale-north-dakota-saudi-kemp-idUSKCN0IX29J20141113">want to nip</a> the U.S. oil boom in the bud. American shale oil is more expensive to produce and needs high prices to remain competitive. As one analyst put it when the kingdom <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102148210">cut prices</a> for U.S. customers earlier this month, “the Saudis have basically declared war on the U.S. oil producers.”</p>
<p>But there’s a competing narrative, or “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/opec-idUSL6N0T73VG20141118">conspiracy theory</a>” if you prefer, that the Saudis are waging war <em>in cooperation </em>with the United States, against their mutual enemies Russia and Iran. “Saudi Arabia, which intends to manage OPEC, serves the interests of the G20 group,” a former Iranian oil minister told Reuters. Venezuelan President Nicol&aacute;s Maduro, whose government is collateral damage in this war, also aired this view recently, saying, “What is the reason for the United States and some U.S. allies wanting to drive down the price of oil? To harm Russia.”</p>
<p>The U.S.-Saudi oil alliance is basically taken as a given in the Iranian and Russian media, and the idea got a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/opinion/thomas-friedman-a-pump-war.html">recent endorsement</a> from <em>New York Times</em> columnist Thomas Friedman as well. Saudi Arabia may indeed want to punish Russia for its support of Bashar al-Assad’s government, and will take any leverage it can get over regional archrival Iran. The U.S., meanwhile, wants to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine and to pressure Iran into agreeing to a nuclear deal.</p>
<p>To be clear, there’s no proof of any deal, and Saudi Arabia denies its policies are motivated by geopolitical interests. Moreover, U.S.-Saudi relations <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/11/25/iran_nuclear_deal_will_saudi_arabia_now_seek_a_nuclear_program_of_its_own.html">aren’t at their best</a> at the moment, and the kingdom&nbsp;is extremely skeptical of America’s latest opening to Iran. But even if there isn’t explicit collusion going on, Saudi Arabia’s move certainly benefits some key U.S. foreign policy interests, if not the bank accounts of North Dakota oil drillers.</p>
<p>For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the conspiracy theory is real, and that there is an agreement in place between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices down. Is it working?</p>
<p>Low oil prices are having an impact on both the Russian and Iranian economies. In <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/08/andrei_nechayev_interview_the_russian_economy_is_in_big_trouble_and_it_s.html">Russia’s case</a>, that impact is probably greater than that of the recently imposed Western sanctions. But as Dan Drezner <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/11/18/dawn-of-the-authoritarian-living-dead/">points out</a>, if economic performance were a reliable guide to the future prospects of authoritarian governments, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and North Korea’s Kim family would have been deposed by angry mobs decades ago. For now, the dire state of the Russian economy doesn’t appear to be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/17/russia_s_economy_s_in_trouble_but_that_doesn_t_mean_russians_will_turn_on.html">having much of an effect</a> on Vladimir Putin’s popularity, and actions that anger the West only seem to make his position stronger at home.</p>
<p>In Iran, the situation is a little murkier. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/world/middleeast/iranians-hope-for-nuclear-deal-with-west-to-kick-start-economy.html">Some experts estimate</a> the country needs $140-a-barrel oil to balance its budget. The price is currently about $80 per barrel. The Islamic Republic’s economic distress is likely one reason why President Hassan Rouhani’s government has been more cooperative on the nuclear issue. The government can’t do much about oil prices, but better relations with the West could bring sanctions relief and investment. But ultimately, the success of the talks will hinge on the views of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, who as the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/world/middleeast/iranians-hope-for-nuclear-deal-with-west-to-kick-start-economy.html"><em>Times </em>notes</a>, “has been less focused on Iran’s economic future than on its status as a regional and world player.”</p>
<p>The oil war may be making life difficult for these countries, then, but there’s no guarantee it will change the behavior of their regimes.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there is one regime whose behavior is likely being affected by the world of cheap oil. Senate Democrats narrowly <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/11/18/senate_defeats_keystone_pipeline_bill.html">defeated the Keystone XL pipeline</a> on Tuesday, in part because President Obama was expected to veto it even if it did pass. He likely feels more comfortable about that stance than he would if oil were priced at more than $100 a barrel right now.</p>Wed, 19 Nov 2014 17:37:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-19T17:37:00ZNews and PoliticsAre the United States and Saudi Arabia Conspiring to Keep Oil Prices Down?236141119001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/19/are_the_united_states_and_saudi_arabia_conspiring_to_keep_oil_prices_down.htmlfalsefalsefalseAre the United States and Saudi Arabia Conspiring to Keep Oil Prices Down?Are the United States and Saudi Arabia Conspiring to Keep Oil Prices Down?Photo by Marwan Naamani/AFP/Getty ImagesA flame from a Saudi Aramco oil installation known as Pump 3 burns brightly during sunset in the desert near the oil-rich area Al-Khurais on June 23, 2008.&nbsp;Does the World Have a Terrorism Problem or a Civil War Problem?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/does_the_world_have_a_terrorism_problem_or_a_civil_war_problem.html
<p>The Institute for Economics and Peace has released its <a href="http://www.visionofhumanity.org/#/page/our-gti-findings">annual Global Terrorism Index</a>, and the main headline, as <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-30086435">reported by the BBC</a> and several other outlets,&nbsp; is that the number of deaths from terrorism increased 61 percent between 2012 and 2013. The number of attacks increased 44 percent to nearly 10,000.The news is all the more dispiriting since, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-20588238">just two years ago</a>, the index reported that global terrorist violence had flatlined between 2007 and 2011. The big reason why it’s picking up again is pretty simple: Syria.</p>
<p>Iraq has led the world in nine of the last 10 years, but things took a turn for the worse last year, with the number of deaths rising 162 percent, thanks largely to the destabilizing effect of the war in neighboring Syria and the emergence of ISIS. Iraq accounted for more than a third of all terrorism deaths last year. Syria itself recorded zero deaths from terrorism for the two years before the war began in 2011 but now has the fifth-most in the world with more than 1,000 last year. Obviously, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/22/united-nations-syria-death-toll/14429549/">many more people than that</a> died as a result of violence in Syria, but the index classifies most of these deaths as the result of conventional warfare rather than terrorism.</p>
<p>That distinction gets into a tricky question about this data. As <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/19/more_than_half_of_the_world_s_terrorist_attacks_happen_in_just_three_countries.html">I’ve discussed</a> on this blog before, terrorism is a global problem but also a relatively localized one. Last year, 82 percent of terrorist attacks counted by the GTI occurred in just five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Syria. In all of these countries, there are large regions where the government is fighting with militant groups for political control. These attacks were primarily carried out by four groups: the Taliban,&nbsp;Boko Haram,&nbsp;ISIS, and various affiliates of al-Qaida. All of these could be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/terrorists_or_rebels_what_do_groups_like_isis_and_al_qaida_actually_spend.html">described as “part-time” terrorist groups</a>, organizations that employ terrorist tactics but often act more like insurgent or guerilla groups. In other words, when ISIS is fighting with the Iraqi army or the Kurdish Peshmerga for control of towns, it’s not engaging in what’s traditionally considered terrorism. But when it executes its American hostages or sets off <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/isis-claim-responsibility-car-bomb-baghdad-airport">bombs at the Baghdad airport</a>, it is.&nbsp;</p>
<p>While these five countries dominate global terrorism, the report also notes that there were nine additional countries last year that had more than 50 terrorism deaths, bringing the total number to 24—the highest in 14 years. These were: Algeria, Central African Republic, China, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Sudan, and South Sudan.</p>
<p>Algeria is on that list largely because of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Amenas_hostage_crisis">one horrific incident</a>. Lebanon’s terrorism is closely tied to Syria’s. CAR, Libya, Mali, Sudan, and South Sudan are all experiencing various states of intrastate warfare.</p>
<p>So the issue here may be less a global increase in terrorism than a set of worsening civil wars (one war in particular) in which the traditional tactics of terrorism—kidnappings, suicide bombings, etc.—are employed by the combatants.</p>
<p>This is more than just a semantic issue. Developed countries are often drawn into costly military interventions in the name <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/are_isis_western_fighters_a_terrifying_security_threat_or_bumbling_tweeting.html">of preventing terrorism against themselves</a>, though they experience only a tiny percentage of terrorist violence. Not counting Turkey and Mexico, only 16 people were killed by terrorism in OECD countries in 2013, the year of the Boston Marathon bombing. (The 2014 numbers are sadly going to be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/four_rabbis_killed_in_jerusalem_attack_what_s_really_behind_the_explosion.html">higher because of recent events in Israel</a>.)</p>
<p>In the popular imagination, we tend to think of “terrorism” in terms of decentralized radical groups targeting the citizens of wealthy and powerful countries. But around the world, the vast majority of it occurs in the context of battles over territory in some of the most unstable places on Earth. And the strategies being employed to stop it obviously aren’t working. &nbsp;</p>Tue, 18 Nov 2014 19:32:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/does_the_world_have_a_terrorism_problem_or_a_civil_war_problem.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-18T19:32:00ZNews and PoliticsDeaths From Terrorism Increased by 60 Percent Last Year236141118002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/does_the_world_have_a_terrorism_problem_or_a_civil_war_problem.htmlfalsefalsefalseDeaths From Terrorism Increased by 60 Percent Last YearDeaths From Terrorism Increased by 60 Percent Last YearPhoto by Rami al-Sayed/AFP/Getty ImagesA Jabhat Al-Nusra fighter waves the movement’s flag at the Yarmuk Palestinian refugee camp, south of Damascus, on July 28, 2014.&nbsp;What’s Really Behind Jerusalem’s Explosion of Violence?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/four_rabbis_killed_in_jerusalem_attack_what_s_really_behind_the_explosion.html
<p>Tuesday morning’s attack on an Orthodox synagogue complex in Jerusalem, which left four rabbis—three U.S. citizens and one Briton—dead during morning prayers is the worst act of violence suffered by Israeli civilians in years. (<em><strong>Update, Nov. 18, 2014:&nbsp;</strong></em>A fifth victim, a Druze police officer injured in the attack, <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.627084">died on Tuesday night</a>.)&nbsp;In <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/world/middleeast/killings-in-jerusalem-synagogue-complex.html">the <em>New York Times</em></a>, the leader of a religious emergency response team compared the carnage at the site to “scenes from the Holocaust.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to respond with a “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/18/world/meast/jerusalem-violence/">heavy hand</a>,” and the incident will add to the growing perception that the recent unrest in the city resembles something close to a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/will_israel_s_closure_of_the_al_aqsa_mosque_lead_to_a_third_intifada.html">new intifada</a>, albeit one characterized more by sporadic uncoordinated attacks than a mass organized uprising.</p>
<p>The <em>Times</em> reports that the attackers were “described as being motivated by what they saw as threats to the revered plateau that contains Al Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.” Hamas <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Hamas-Jerusalem-synagogue-attack-in-response-to-death-of-Palestinian-bus-driver-found-hanged-382106">has also stated</a> that the attack was in retaliation for an incident involving the death of a Palestinian bus driver whose body was found in Jerusalem yesterday.</p>
<p>At the moment, Jews are allowed to visit, but not pray, at the complex, the third-holiest site in the world for Muslims. Netanyahu has promised to keep it that way, most recently <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/11/jordan-gets-netanyahu-assurance-jerusalem-2014116171428236335.html">in a conversation</a> earlier this month with King Abdullah II of Jordan, the complex’s official custodian.</p>
<p>However, hard-line Jewish religious activists have been pushing for the right to pray at the site, which Jews refer to as the Temple Mount, and a number of lawmakers, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/01/us-mideast-palestinians-israel-idUSKBN0IL39120141101">including members</a> of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, support the movement. One of the leaders of the campaign, U.S.-born settler and activist Yehuda Glick, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-mideast-palestinians-israel-shooting-idUSKBN0IJ0FX20141030">was shot</a> last month, prompting Israel to take the rare step of closing off access to al-Aqsa entirely. Israel has frequently placed restrictions on entry to the site or barred specific groups, such as young men, from praying, but the full closure was described by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as an “act of war.”</p>
<p>Both Netanyahu and Secretary of State John Kerry said that Tuesday’s attack was the direct result of “incitement” by Palestinian leaders. This was referring not only to the “act of war” remark but also a speech last week in which Abbas accused Israel of waging a “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/11/abbas-israel-jerusalem-holy-site">religious war</a>” by allowing “settlers and extremists” to pray at the site. “We will not allow our holy places to be contaminated,” <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-israel-sparking-devastating-religious-war/">he said</a> at a ceremony in Ramallah to honor the 10<sup>th</sup> anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s death. Abbas condemned Tuesday’s attack, though there were reportedly celebrations in parts of Gaza and the West Bank.</p>
<p>Amid all of this, the violence has been growing. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-mideast-jerusalem-driver-idUSKCN0J10O220141117">Over the past month</a>, Reuters reports, “five Israelis and a foreign visitor have been deliberately run over and killed or stabbed to death by Palestinians. About a dozen Palestinians have been killed, including those accused of carrying out the attacks.” These also included a Palestinian man <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/middleeast/israeli-palestinian-west-bank.html">fatally shot</a> by Israeli security forces during a demonstration in the West Bank last week.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The most recent incident involves 32-year-old bus driver Yussuf al-Ramuni, whose body was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-mideast-jerusalem-driver-idUSKCN0J10O220141117">found hanged</a> in his vehicle on Monday morning. Police say it appears to be a suicide but his family has rejected this explanation and reports have circulated in the Palestinian media that he was murdered by settlers.</p>
<p>Going forward, it seems unlikely that Netanyahu will change the policy at al-Aqsa. But the voices in favor of doing so, including within his own coalition, are strong enough that it at least seems plausible to Palestinians that this could happen.</p>
<p>Likewise, while Abbas’ comments certainly haven’t calmed the situation, neither his Fatah movement nor Hamas <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/middleeast/a-leaderless-palestinian-revolt-proves-more-difficult-to-curb-.html">actually appears</a> to be orchestrating the violence. Abbas almost certainly doesn’t want another devastating intifada, which, if it comes, could potentially be driven as much by frustration with the Palestinian Authority as with Israel.</p>
<p>While important for understanding the recent outbreak of violence, the al-Aqsa question may ultimately be secondary to the lasting anger from last summer’s Gaza war and overall frustration with the lack of political progress. If al-Aqsa weren’t the flashpoint right now, it seems likely that something else would be.&nbsp;</p>Tue, 18 Nov 2014 16:54:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/four_rabbis_killed_in_jerusalem_attack_what_s_really_behind_the_explosion.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-18T16:54:00ZNews and PoliticsWhat’s Really Behind Jerusalem’s Explosion of Violence?236141118001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/18/four_rabbis_killed_in_jerusalem_attack_what_s_really_behind_the_explosion.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhat’s Really Behind Jerusalem’s Explosion of Violence?What’s Really Behind Jerusalem’s Explosion of Violence?1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38971464300011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38971464300011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38971464300011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38971464300011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38971464300011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3897146430001Photo by Lior Mizrahi/Getty ImagesUltra-Orthodox Jewish men are seen during the funeral of Rabbi Moshe Twersky on Nov. 18, 2014, in Jerusalem.The Mystery of ISIS’ Foreign Fightershttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/are_isis_western_fighters_a_terrifying_security_threat_or_bumbling_tweeting.html
<p>The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/11/16/isis_video_shows_execution_of_american_kassig.html">video released</a> over the weekend showing the execution of American aid worker Peter Kassig is going to focus new attention on the role played the Westerners fighting for ISIS. In addition to the British fighter referred to in the U.K. media as “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/25/is_british_rapper_l_jinny_the_man_who_beheaded_james_foley.html">Jihadi John</a>,” the video also features men <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/islamic-state-british-french-suspects-in-execution-video/26696187.html">suspected to be</a> a British medical student from Cardiff and a French national and recent convert to Islam who traveled to Syria last year.</p>
<p>ISIS’s potential threat to Western countries is an important, <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/islamic-state-british-french-suspects-in-execution-video/26696187.html">if a little misguided</a>, reason why the public supports military intervention in Syria and Iraq to counter the group. And concern that fighters could return from the Middle East to their countries of origin to carry out attacks has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/middleeast/isis-recruits-prompt-laws-against-foreign-fighters.html?_r=0">prompted governments</a> throughout the world, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/attorney-general-eric-holder-warns-syria-terror-threat-n150451">including the United States</a>, to raise the alarm about ISIS recruitment.&nbsp; As President Obama has said, “Trained and battle-hardened, these fighters could try to return to their home countries and carry out deadly attacks.”</p>
<p>But is the foreign fighter threat overstated?</p>
<p>Estimates vary, but both <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/middleeast/isis-recruits-prompt-laws-against-foreign-fighters.html?_r=0">U.S. intelligence services</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/foreign-jihadist-iraq-syria-unprecedented-un-isis">the U.N.</a> say that about 15,000 foreigners have traveled to Syria and Iraq to fight for the Islamic State from 80 countries—a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/12/world/meast/isis-numbers/">large portion</a> of the group’s total manpower.</p>
<p>About 2,000 of those are from Western countries, including, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/foreign-fighters-pouring-syria-faster-ever-say-officials-n236546">according to</a> one adviser to the U.S. director of national intelligence, “at least 500 from the U.K, 700 from France, 400 from Germany, and more than 100 Americans [who] have traveled, or tried to travel into Syria.” Australia could actually have the highest <a href="http://time.com/2911040/australia-isis-syria-iraq-terrorism/">number of fighters</a> per capita.</p>
<p>Recruitment methods for these volunteers vary. <a href="http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/15000-plus-for-fighting-the-return-of-the-foreign-fighters/#_">Some anecdotal evidence</a> suggests that European ISIS fighters are more likely to be recruited in person while Americans are more likely to self-radicalize after encountering online material.</p>
<p>There’s good reason to wonder just how useful these angry young Western men—and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/29/schoolgirl-jihadis-female-islamists-leaving-home-join-isis-iraq-syria">occasionally women</a>—are on the battlefield. The anonymous social networking site Ask.fm has emerged as a <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/want-to-chat-with-a-western-jihadist-try-askfm">popular venue</a> for potential Western recruits to ask questions to English-speaking ISIS fighters. Some of their questions, as <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/islamic-state-questions-askfm-western-militant-wannabes/26686817.html">reported by</a> Radio Free Europe, include “how easy is it to get contact lenses there? are they expensive?”; “Do you think in the future they will improve wi-fi and stuff?”; “Do u have to cook for yourself and clean everyday?”; and “Could you take captured woman as slaves?&quot;</p>
<p>Despite the reassuring answers they received from their allegedly Syria-based interlocutors, none of these exactly sounds like the queries of battle-ready fighters.</p>
<p>As journalist Graeme Wood <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119395/isiss-three-types-fighters">writes</a>, based on an interview with former CIA case officer Patrick Skinner, “As men without significant military training—like most jihadis from Western or upper-class backgrounds—their main purpose is to create grotesque propaganda and, perhaps, to perform the low-skill role of blowing themselves up.”</p>
<p>The fighters who appeared in the Kassig video exemplified the first function. Moner Mohammad Abusalha, the Florida man <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/iraq-war-on-terror/losing-iraq/why-are-so-many-westerners-joining-isis/">who blew himself up</a> at a mountaintop restaurant in Syria in May, exemplified both, recording a video in which he burned his U.S. passport before <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-video-purports-show-american-suicide-bomber-moner-mohammad-abusalha-n169651">carrying out the attack</a>.</p>
<p>Daniel Byman and Jeremy Shapiro of the Brookings Institution <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2014/09/30-syria-foreign-fighters-byman-shapiro">have argued</a> that the foreign-fighter threat is real but exaggerated, writing:</p>
<blockquote>
[T]he vast majority of Western Muslims who set out to fight in the Middle East today will not come back as terrorists. Many of them will never go home at all, instead dying in combat or joining new military campaigns elsewhere, or they will return disillusioned and not interested in bringing the violence with them. Even among the rare individuals who do harbor such intentions, most will be less dangerous than they are feared to be because they will attract the attention of authorities before they can strike.&nbsp;
</blockquote>
<p>And as Byman has <a href="http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/10/the-foreign-policy-essay-the-arab-worlds-foreign-fighter-problem/">pointed out elsewhere</a>, “the foreign volunteers’&nbsp;propensity to use social media&nbsp;to broadcast every detail of their jihadist lives makes them even more likely to be caught.”</p>
<p>So far, while a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.html">number of terrorist plots</a> in North America, Australia, and Europe have been linked to ISIS sympathizers, only one—the shooting at a Jewish Museum in Brussels in May—has been carried out by someone with actual experience in Syria.</p>
<p>Still, it seems unlikely that ISIS has recruited all of these Westerners just to make propaganda—they actually seem to be <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/bang-whimper-isis-propaganda-withers-us-strikes/story?id=25943974">making less of it</a> lately—or blow themselves up. And it’s also hard to imagine that a group of 20,000 to 30,000 fighters is spending its time baby-sitting a group of 2,000 incompetents.</p>
<p>ISIS’ Western volunteers are clearly playing a role on the ground for the Islamic State, but whether they can really take the fight home is still a mystery.</p>Mon, 17 Nov 2014 21:24:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/are_isis_western_fighters_a_terrifying_security_threat_or_bumbling_tweeting.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-17T21:24:00ZNews and PoliticsAre ISIS’ Western Fighters a Terrifying Security Threat or Bumbling, Tweeting Morons?236141117002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/are_isis_western_fighters_a_terrifying_security_threat_or_bumbling_tweeting.htmlfalsefalsefalseAre ISIS’ Western Fighters a Terrifying Security Threat or Bumbling, Tweeting Morons?Are ISIS’ Western Fighters a Terrifying Security Threat or Bumbling, Tweeting Morons?Boris Johnson’s Churchillhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/boris_johnson_london_s_mayor_on_why_he_wrote_a_book_about_winston_churchill.html
<p>Boris Johnson doesn’t compare himself to Winston Churchill. When the London mayor describes his political hero, though, it sounds just a little bit like he’s talking about himself—or at least, the best possible version of himself. “In his politics, he was much more consistent that we often think. He was an imperialist, socially progressive free trader with elements of bohemianism, and he never really deviated from that,” says the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10552336/Germany-started-the-Great-War-but-the-Left-cant-bear-to-say-so.html">staunch conservative</a> Johnson, who is also known for his support for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/bike-blog/2013/dec/09/boris-johnson-london-cycling-revolution">bike lanes</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1902743/Boris-Johnson-Legalise-cannabis-for-pain-relief.html">medical marijuana</a>, and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/boris-johnson-im-in-favour-of-gay-marriage-and-i-cant-see-what-all-the-fuss-is-about-8205338.html">gay marriage</a>.</p>
<p>Asked what surprised him about the prime minister when researching his new book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1594633029/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>The Churchill Factor</em></a>, Johnson—famous for his iconic disheveled haircut—notes how Churchill transcended his physical appearance. “He was a runty guy: 5-foot-6 1/2, 31-inch chest. But he manages to present himself to the world as this bisonlike figure. How he became that is fascinating.”</p>
<p>He was also stunned by Churchill’s “sheer intellectual energy,” as exemplified by his ability to “write after drinking an awful lot at dinner, a skill not known even to the most hard-bitten British journalist. Nowadays, we’re a much softer bunch. We think we can do it, but we can’t. We can do it after lunch but not after dinner.”</p>
<p>Johnson, who spoke with <strong><em>Slate</em></strong><em> </em>during a D.C. stop on his U.S. book tour, doesn’t lack for energy either. The former journalist, who was first elected mayor in 2008, has made himself into an internationally known figure and, according to one recent poll, the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-06-15/boris-johnson-most-popular-politician/">most popular politician</a> in Britain, through his ubiquitous media presence, memorable one-liners, and penchant for not taking himself seriously. (It is a little hard to imagine Churchill finding <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/aug/01/boris-johnson-zip-wire">himself stuck on a zip-line</a>, as Johnson did during the 2012 Olympics.)</p>
<p>Johnson, who’s <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB123094404164150567">been called</a> a “a walking Bartlett’s of political incorrectness” for statements like joking that voters’ wives would grow bigger breasts if they voted Tory, or suggesting that economic inequality can be largely explained by <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/28/boris-johnson-iq-comments">variations in IQ</a>, says he also wanted to defend Churchill from the slings and arrows of the modern press. “He’s getting a bit further from us in time and like a great constellation, some of his stars are losing their luminescence,” Johnson says. “I wanted to defend him from a lot of the carping and the sniping we hear today, that he was a racist and a sexist and so on.”</p>
<p>The New York-born Johnson also reflected on America’s own <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/9451741/Winston-Churchill-Americas-enduring-love-for-Winnie-and-his-words.html">longstanding love</a> of Churchill, which can be more fulsome than Britain’s affection for its own wartime leader. “I think Americans see him, in some ways, more clearly,” he says. “They appreciate aspects of his personality and his achievement that Brits don’t. He is about freedom. He is about standing up for what you believe in. The political correctness stuff has been much more corrosive of Churchill’s legacy in Britain than it has been in America.”</p>
<p>But despite Churchill’s iconic status for American hawks, Johnson notes, “He wasn’t a neocon in any means. I don’t think he would have wanted to put boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria.” Churchill, who played a key role in the creation of the modern state of Iraq after World War I, also famously described it as an “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/opinion/sunday/the-lost-art-of-the-unsent-angry-letter.html">ungrateful volcano</a>.”</p>
<p>Johnson, who is often mentioned as a possible future candidate for prime minister but <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/11/13/london-mayor-boris-johnson-new-york-britain-winston-churchill/18870873/">has been coy</a> about his plans, says Churchill would feel right at home in today’s politics. “I think a lot of the debates we’re having today would be very familiar to him,” he says.</p>
<p>Among the biggest of those debates is the one over Britain’s role in Europe, which could dominate British politics for the next few years if the country goes ahead with a proposed yes-or-no referendum on EU membership in 2017. This will almost definitely take place if the Tories win next year’s general election.</p>
<p>Churchill was a <a href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/eu-history/founding-fathers/pdf/winston_churchill_en.pdf">strong supporter</a> of a united Europe following the second war. His most recent biographer, by contrast, has been a skeptic, saying <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28672286">Britain shouldn’t be afraid</a> to pull out of the union if it can’t get the reforms and concessions it wants and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11157890/Boris-Johnson-calls-for-quotas-on-EU-migrants.html">calling for quotas</a> on EU migrants.</p>
<p><strong>“</strong>The destiny of Britain, as Churchill saw, was to be allied with America when we possibly can be, allied with our friends in the former empire and the commonwealth, but also being a key European player,” Johnson says. “We may want to change our relationship a bit, but fundamentally we will remain within the European common market.”</p>
<p>Johnson says he will be heavily involved the campaign to push for Britain to have more “control over borders and to restrain costly regulations from Brussels,” but he contrasts his approach with some of the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/06/ukip_and_the_national_front_could_far_right_parties_ever_actually_end_up.html">public anger</a> provoked by issues of immigration and sovereignty, saying, “We need to approach this whole thing with a spirit of openness and cheerfulness.”&nbsp;</p>Mon, 17 Nov 2014 21:06:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/boris_johnson_london_s_mayor_on_why_he_wrote_a_book_about_winston_churchill.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-17T21:06:00ZNews and PoliticsLondon Mayor Boris Johnson Wants You to Know That Churchill Was Not Racist or Sexist236141117001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/17/boris_johnson_london_s_mayor_on_why_he_wrote_a_book_about_winston_churchill.htmlfalsefalsefalseLondon Mayor Boris Johnson Wants You to Know That Churchill Was Not Racist or SexistLondon Mayor Boris Johnson Wants You to Know That Churchill Was Not Racist or SexistPhoto by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty ImagesChurchill redux? Boris Johnson is surrounded by reporters as he arrives at Ruislip High School on Sept. 12, 2014, in Uxbridge, England.Mexico’s Breaking Pointhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/ayotzinapa_could_the_disappearance_of_43_students_bring_down_the_mexican.html
<p>On Sept. 26, in the rural town of Iguala, in the state of Guerrero in southwest Mexico, a bus carrying student teachers was stopped by police and gunmen believed to belong to a local cartel. The students, who attend the Normal University in Ayotzinapa, were traveling to Iguala to protest education reforms and raise funds. They <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/parents-43-missing-protest-tour-mexico-204237866.html">also stole four buses</a> to return home. Six people were killed at the scene, and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/10/06/mexican_student_protestor_massacre_cartels_and_law_enforcement_may_have.html">43 went missing</a>.</p>
<p>Authorities believe the police delivered the students to the local drug cartel, Guerreros Unidos. The mayor of the town, Jos&eacute; Luis Abarca, and his wife, Mar&iacute;a de los &Aacute;ngeles Pineda, were later arrested and charged with ordering the police to capture the students out of fear that they would cause a disturbance.</p>
<p>Three of the <a href="http://aristeguinoticias.com/0411/mexico/integrantes-de-guerreros-unidos-confiesan-ejecucion-de-normalistas/">gang members confessed this week to murdering the students</a>, burning them, and throwing the remains in plastic bags in a nearby river and garbage dump. The remains are so badly charred that local forensics investigators haven’t been able to confirm their identities. An outside commission from Argentina had to be called to perform further tests.</p>
<p>This is not the first, biggest, or most gruesome mass disappearance during Mexico’s past eight years of brutal drug violence. More than <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2012/11/83-mil-muertos-por-el-narco-en-sexenio-de-calderon-semanario-zeta/">106,000 have died</a> in what government data term “executions,” “confrontations,” and “homicide-aggressions” since <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/01/world/la-fg-wn-mexico-calderon-cartels-20121130">former President Felipe Calderon informally declared his war on drugs in 2006</a>. But the tragedy of Ayotzinapa is different. Rarely has the collusion between local authorities and the cartels been so obvious and the consequences so dire. Unsurprisingly, the events surrounding the case have captivated Mexico and the international community for weeks.</p>
<p>Since coming to power in 2012, President Enrique Pe&ntilde;a Nieto has sought to keep his focus on economic growth rather than the violence that the country has become known for internationally. In the aftermath of this incident, Pe&ntilde;a Nieto’s approval ratings have sunk to the <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/10/9/thousands-march-inmexicotodemandactionovermassacre.html">lowest point of his presidency</a> amid criticism of the government’s sluggish response. He has <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/mexico-student-massacre-delicate-moment-enrique-pena-nieto-1703258">decried the incident</a> as “outrageous, painful, and unacceptable” but human rights groups say his short statements about the case have been vague and lacking in specific plans for action. He has also been criticized for taking more than a month to meet with the families of victims and for traveling to the APEC summit in China this week as the crisis simmered. <a href="http://noticias.univision.com/article/2146946/2014-11-03/impresiones/la-renuncia-de-pena-nieto">Calls for his resignation</a> are getting louder and more widespread.</p>
<p>From the time the war on drugs started, and its massive, hemorrhaging failure became apparent, there have been protests, marches, and calls for action. This time around, the protests’ significance has moved beyond a dull weariness and discontent to raw expressions of pain. This has happened in part because of who the victims are, students from a poor rural town and a university with a strong tradition of activism for social justice (and a strong tradition of having <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2014/10/04/la-criminalizacion-de-los-normalistas-rurales-tanalis-padilla-7283.html">this activism criminalized by the government</a>). This reputation appears to be why the mayor sent police forces to detain them in the first place. According to Mexican media, citing documents from the investigation, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/world/americas/Iguala-mayor-wife-missing-students-mexico.html?_r=0">Jos&eacute; Luis Abarca ordered the police to “teach them a lesson.”</a></p>
<p>Federal law enforcement officials describe Abarca and his wife as themselves the embodiment of a corrupt political class, allegedly running illegal activities from city hall. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/world/americas/Iguala-mayor-wife-missing-students-mexico.html">The <em>New York Times</em> reports</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
Federal officials said Guerreros Unidos regularly paid off the mayor for his cooperation and that of the police force, which acted as muscle for the gang. The mayor received up to $220,000 every few weeks, the officials have said, while his wife was described as a top operative of the gang. It is an offshoot of the larger, better-known Beltr&aacute;n Leyva crime group in which Ms. Pineda Villa’s brothers—two of whom were killed in 2009—have acted as leaders.
</blockquote>
<p>And then there are the national politicians. Pe&ntilde;a Nieto isn’t the only one under fire. After meeting with the students’ families, Attorney General Jes&uacute;s Murillo Karam fended off questions from reporters at a press conference on Nov. 7, saying, “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/09/protests-flare-in-mexico-after-attorney-generals-enough-im-tired-remarks">Enough, I’m tired</a>.” This moment, ironically, provided the perfect hashtag and rallying cry <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23YaMeCanse&amp;src=typd">#YaMeCanse</a> (#EnoughI’mTired) to channel Mexico’s frustration.</p>
<p>Murillo Karam explained himself on Monday, saying that he “was also tired of this brutal violence,” had been sleeping four hours a day for the past month, and at the time of the conference had been awake for 40 hours. But it was too late. The protesters on the street have adopted the poor turn of phrase as a rallying cry.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/photography/2014/11/mexico_s_days_of_rage_gripping_photos_of_the_protests_sweeping_a_nation.html">Protests against narcoviolence and against the government’s ineptitude and dishonesty have never been so heated or widespread.</a> They’ve also never had such a strong presence internationally, including in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152776637360071&amp;set=a.66438220070.103853.668375070&amp;type=1&amp;theater">New York</a> and Paris, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TodosSomosAyotzinapa%20&amp;src=typd">aided by social media</a>. In Mexico, the anger is spreading quickly. Last Thursday protesters blocked access to the attorney general’s office. On Saturday, they set fire to the doors of the National Palace in Mexico City. On Monday they blocked access to the Acapulco airport. On Wednesday they set fire to the state congress building in Guerrero.</p>
<p>With the protests focused on the victims—the names and faces of “the 43”—the families of the disappeared students have become a political force with unprecedented agency. <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-president-families-20141029-story.html">The students’ families met with Pe&ntilde;a Nieto</a> on Oct. 30—what was supposed to be a short, symbolic gesture but turned into a six-hour ordeal. They took control of the meeting and made explicit political demands of the president, who agreed to better support for the families of the missing, renewed search efforts, and to create a panel of officials and parents to keep the investigations into the case honest and on track.</p>
<p>Some precedent for these events was established in March 2011, when gang members murdered Juan Francisco Sicilia, son of renowned Mexican writer Javier Sicilia. Sicilia led demonstrations in more than 40 Mexican cities where <a href="http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2101745_2102138_2102238,00.html">hundreds of thousands protested the rampant violence and corruption</a>, providing a venue for victims and victims’ families to voice their pain publically, with intention and direction. Now, Ayotzinapa has taken what Sicilia built and put it at the service of the parents of the 43 students—members of the poor masses who suffer the brunt of Mexico’s violence rather than the cultural elite.</p>
<p>The violence in Mexico—a disturbingly bland phrase—is reaching the limits of normal human experience and of the language we use to describe it. <em>The violence in Mexico </em>cannot tell you that in Mexico every day is the day of the dead, and the day of the disappeared, and the day of the mutilated, and the day of the bereaved. <em>Ayotzinapa</em> and its unique convergence of events, actors, timing, and place speak to this. Mexico is tired—exhausted, even. Now is precisely when its people will<strong> </strong>fight back the hardest.</p>
<p><em>Special thanks to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/humbertobeck">Humberto Beck</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/lorenamarron">Lorena Marr&oacute;n</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/lemuslemuslemus">Rafael Lemus</a>&nbsp;for assistance on this post.</em></p>
<p><em>See more <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/photography/2014/11/mexico_s_days_of_rage_gripping_photos_of_the_protests_sweeping_a_nation.html">photos of the protests in Mexico here</a>.</em>&nbsp;</p>Fri, 14 Nov 2014 19:38:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/ayotzinapa_could_the_disappearance_of_43_students_bring_down_the_mexican.htmlJuliana Jiménez Jaramillo2014-11-14T19:38:00ZNews and PoliticsCould the Disappearance of 43 Students Bring Down the Mexican Government?236141114003Juliana Jiménez JaramilloThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/ayotzinapa_could_the_disappearance_of_43_students_bring_down_the_mexican.htmlfalsefalsefalseCould the Disappearance of 43 Students Bring Down the Mexican Government?Could the Disappearance of 43 Students Bring Down the Mexican Government?Photo by Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty ImagesDemonstrators clash with the riot police near the Acapulco airport on Nov. 10, 2014.Will Australia’s Anti-Green Prime Minister Push the Country Into International Isolation?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/will_australia_s_anti_green_prime_minister_push_the_country_into_international.html
<p>Environmentalist protesters may be mocking him by <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/11/13/heads-in-sand-protest-bondi/">sticking their heads</a> in the sand of Bondi Beach, but it’s going to be tough for Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott—leader of perhaps the world’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/09/australia_s_environmental_movement_has_been_overthrown.html">least green government</a>—to ignore the topic of climate change as he welcomes his fellow world leaders to the G20 summit in Brisbane this weekend.</p>
<p>China and the United States surprised the other attendees earlier this week by announcing a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/asia/china-us-xi-obama-apec.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0">major new climate accord</a> on the eve of the summit. The White House has now <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/14/barack-obama-to-pledge-at-least-25bn-to-help-poor-countries-fight-climate-change?CMP=ema_565">followed up by announcing</a> that President Obama will pledge between $2.5 billion and $3 billion over the next four years to the Green Climate Fund, an international effort to help poor countries address climate change. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also expected to pledge an additional $1.5 billion to the fund, an outlay that will likely be crucial in getting developed countries to sign on to an international climate treaty next year.</p>
<p>The <em>Guardian </em>reports that the pledges could “embarrass the G20 host country, Australia, which has been fiercely resisting climate change discussions” and “arguing against behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts for G20 leaders to promise to make contributions to the fund.” Abbott, who has in the past questioned the science of climate change, has insisted that Australia will make no contributions to the fund, though Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says no final decision has been made.</p>
<p>Going forward from this weekend’s meeting, it will be interesting to watch the degree to which the Australian government’s environmental policies, which are at odds with most of the rest of the developed world, will isolate the country.</p>
<p>International climate diplomacy moves at a glacial pace—and unfortunately not as quickly as glacial melt—but the overall trend is toward a consensus that global warming is a major problem and steps should be taken to reduce emissions. In other words, Australia is drifting away from the pack.</p>
<p>Abbott’s government was <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/eu-regrets-australias-carbon-tax-repeal/story-fn3dxiwe-1226992642300">criticized by fellow major economies</a> after scrapping its pioneering carbon tax last July. Analysts say the country’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/04/us-australia-carbon-idUSKBN0GZ09820140904">emissions rose</a> significantly in the two months after the repeal, after a six-year trend of decline. The head of the U.K. Committee on Climate Change was particularly harsh, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-government-is-recklessly-endangering-the-future-on-climate-says-uk-chief-20140708-zszx4.html">accusing Abbott</a> of “recklessly endangering our future.”</p>
<p>While Abbott claimed at the time that emissions-trading schemes were being <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-09/tony-abbott-emissions-trading-around-the-world-fact-check/5559430">discarded left and right</a> around the world, they are actually now in place in the EU, New Zealand, and large parts of the U.S., Canada, Japan, and China. South Korea <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/southkorea-carbontrading-idINL4N0QK2Y620140814">plans to introduce</a> one next year. The idea went mainstream just as Australia abandoned it.</p>
<p>Of course, Abbott probably isn’t sweating the criticism of European environmental ministers. And even if an international agreement is reached next year, it definitely won’t be tough enough to punish countries that don’t reduce their emissions.</p>
<p>But Abbott’s environmental policies have also committed Australia to an economic path that may not play out the way he anticipates. Moves like <a href="http://theconversation.com/approval-of-australias-largest-coal-mine-ignores-climate-and-water-29780">approving the world’s largest coal mine</a> are predicated on the assumption that Asia’s booming economies will continue to have a voracious appetite for coal. That seemed like a reasonable assumption until recently, but China’s coal consumption <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/12/china_u_s_emissions_deal_terrifying_air_pollution_forced_chinese_leaders.html">may already be dropping</a> and the country’s government seems increasingly serious about curtailing it. India, which could soon overtake China as the world’s largest coal importer, seemed like another reliable customer. But the country’s power and coal minister <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goyal-says-possible-stop-imports-063427738.html">said this week</a> that between ramped-up local coal mining and investments in alternative energy, India may phase out coal imports in two to three years.</p>
<p>That seems absurdly ambitious, and as my colleague Jordan Weissmann <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/11/12/u_s_and_china_climate_change_agreement_why_are_coal_stocks_rising.html">pointed out</a>, coal markets didn’t seem too rattled by this week’s U.S.-China treaty. But being the world’s <a href="http://www.mining-technology.com/features/featurecoal-giants-the-worlds-biggest-coal-producing-countries-4186363/">second-largest coal exporter</a> doesn’t seem like the sure bet it used to be.</p>
<p>Abbott’s environmental policies, then, could lead Australia to greater isolation as other governments start taking climate change more seriously. Then again, depending on who is elected president of the United States in two years, he could quickly find himself back in the mainstream.</p>Fri, 14 Nov 2014 18:37:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/will_australia_s_anti_green_prime_minister_push_the_country_into_international.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-14T18:37:00ZNews and PoliticsWill Australia’s Anti-Green Prime Minister Push the Country Into International Isolation?236141114002climate changeenviromentaustraliaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/will_australia_s_anti_green_prime_minister_push_the_country_into_international.htmlfalsefalsefalseWill Australia’s Anti-Green Prime Minister Push the Country Into International Isolation?Will Australia’s Anti-Green Prime Minister Push the Country Into International Isolation?Photo by Dan Himbrechts - Pool/Getty ImagesPrime Minister Tony Abbott addresses an infrastructure business breakfast at the Barangaroo Delivery Authority on Nov. 14, 2014, in Sydney.&nbsp;Is the U.S. Leaving Itself Wiggle Room on Torture?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/obama_administration_clarifies_stance_on_convention_against_torture_is_the.html
<p>A few weeks ago, the <em>New York Times</em>’ Charlie Savage reported that the Obama administration was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/us/politics/obama-could-reaffirm-a-bush-era-reading-of-a-treaty-on-torture.html">considering reaffirming</a> the Bush administration’s interpretation of the U.N. treaty banning “cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment”&nbsp;of prisoners. The previous White House had held that the treaty applied within the United States but not to military or CIA prisons overseas.</p>
<p>A U.S. delegation was due to appear this week before the U.N. Committee Against Torture in Geneva and, Savage reported, military and intelligence lawyers had been pushing back against the State Department, which wanted to revise the U.S. stance on the treaty to apply to overseas facilities as well.</p>
<p>The story prompted an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/27/us/politics/peace-prize-laureates-urge-disclosure-on-us-torture.html">immediate backlash</a> from human rights groups, and the State Department side seems to have won out—for the most part. Administration officials <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/us/us-to-revise-bush-policy-on-treatment-of-prisoners.html">told the committee</a> on Wednesday that the ban on torture applied to “wherever the United States exercises governmental authority,” including the detention center at Guant&aacute;namo Bay and U.S. military ships in international waters.</p>
<p>However, there are still some ambiguities. The administration’s new definition seems to exclude places like the “black site” prisons run by the CIA during the Bush administration, which were technically on the sovereign territory of other countries. (For me, one of the most surreal stories of this period, as recounted in Jane Mayer’s book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0307456293/?tag=slatmaga-20"><em>The Dark Side</em></a>, came when 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed learned what country he was being held in by seeing the Polish writing on a water bottle.)</p>
<p>U.S. officials argue that this does not mean that torture <em>is</em> allowed at these places. That would be banned, in any case, by a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detainee_Treatment_Act">2005 law</a> passed by Congress. But they’re hesitant to accept that the treaty applies to these places because, as Savage puts it, “changing the jurisdictional scope could have unintended consequences, like increasing the risk of lawsuits by overseas detainees or making it harder to say that unrelated treaties with similar jurisdictional language did not apply in the same places.”</p>
<p>Jack Goldsmith, who served as assistant attorney general under Bush and was a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/09/magazine/09rosen.html?_r=0">noted internal critic</a> of the administration’s legal rationale on interrogations, agrees that the administration’s position probably doesn’t mean it’s looking for ways to weasel out of the torture ban. “<em>Many&nbsp;</em>other treaties besides the Torture Convention include the phrase ‘territory under its jurisdiction’ or a similar phrase,” <a href="http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/10/the-debate-about-the-extraterritorial-scope-of-the-torture-conventions-provisions-on-cruelty-is-almost-certainly-not-about-usg-interrogation-policy/">he writes on the Lawfare blog</a>. “If the United States interprets this phrase to have broad extraterritorial reach in the Torture Convention, it might be committing itself to similar constructions in most if not all of those other contexts.”</p>
<p>The Obama administration has found ways to exploit extraterritoriality in its own counterterrorism policies. A number of prominent terrorist <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/17/ahmed_abu_khattala_the_benghazi_arrest_shows_obama_s_non_gitmo_non_drone.html">suspects captured abroad</a>, including Benghazi attack planner Abu Khattala, Libyan al-Qaida operative Abu Anas al-Libi, and Somali militant Ahmed Abdulkadir Warsame, were interrogated aboard U.S. Navy ships for intelligence purposes before being read their Miranda rights and turned over to the civilian justice system. Osama Bin Laden’s son-in-law, Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, captured in Jordan in 2013, was <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/ahmed-abu-khattala-the-miranda-rights-question-10828">likely interrogated</a> by CIA and FBI personnel while in Turkish custody before being handed over to the FBI. That doesn’t mean these suspects were tortured, but even as the Obama administration has sought to bring terror interrogations in line with U.S. international laws, it has also exploited the loopholes provided by ambiguous national jurisdiction.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the U.N. commission continues to press the United States on other matters. The panel yesterday <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/world/europe/un-commission-presses-us-on-torture.html">pressed U.S. officials</a> to explain a section of the U.S.&nbsp;Army field manual that stipulates detainees be allowed at least four hours of sleep, an amount members of the commission said could be considered sleep deprivation.&nbsp;</p>Fri, 14 Nov 2014 16:13:18 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/obama_administration_clarifies_stance_on_convention_against_torture_is_the.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-14T16:13:18ZNews and PoliticsIs the U.S. Leaving Itself Wiggle Room on Torture?236141114001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/14/obama_administration_clarifies_stance_on_convention_against_torture_is_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseIs the U.S. Leaving Itself Wiggle Room on Torture?Is the U.S. Leaving Itself Wiggle Room on Torture?Photo by John Moore/Getty ImagesA group of detainees pray at the U.S. military prison in Guant&aacute;namo Bay, Cuba.What Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/what_will_change_if_isis_and_al_qaida_patch_things_up.html
<p>Syrian opposition officials say ISIS has <a href="http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_306481/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=ZgdTLCoZ">reached a truce</a> with its erstwhile partners in al-Qaida. The accord apparently took place at a meeting in northern Syria last week that involved members of ISIS, al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and members of the Khorasan Group, a group of al-Qaida veterans from Pakistan and Afghanistan who have embedded with Nusra.</p>
<p>According to the AP, these opposition officials say the jihadi groups “agreed to work to destroy the Syrian Revolutionaries Front, a prominent rebel faction armed and trained by the United States and led by a fighter named Jamal Maarouf.”</p>
<p>Some details of the meeting had been <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/11/al-qaeda-s-killer-new-alliance-with-isis.html">reported earlier this week</a> by the <em>Daily Beast</em>’s Jamie Dettmer, who wrote that moderate Syrian rebel groups “accuse the Obama administration of fostering jihadi rapprochement” through the airstrikes it <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/24/khorasan_group_obama_launches_u_s_airstrikes_against_isis_but_also_its_enemy.html">launched against Nusra</a> in the early days of the intervention. Those strikes were billed as a bid to take out the members of Khorasan—a group that few fighters on the ground in Syria seemed to have heard of until recently.</p>
<p>U.S. officials haven’t confirmed the report of a merger and tell the AP they’ve seen no shifts in the two groups’ strategies.</p>
<p>If it’s real, the merger will shift the dynamics of the very complex battlefield in Syria. Up until now, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html">ISIS didn’t really have any friends</a> in the region, even among groups that largely share its ideology. Between this and Egyptian militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis’ <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/world/middleeast/egyptian-militant-group-pledges-loyalty-to-isis.html">pledge of support</a> this week, it’s possible that ISIS is starting to get more respect from fellow jihadi groups. It would also be quite a reversal for al-Qaida leaders, who <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/03/isis_al_qaida_disavows_syrian_rebel_group.html">disavowed their renegade Iraqi faction</a> months ago.</p>
<p>The AP’s Deb Riechmann writes that the accord would “present new difficulties for Washington's strategy,” which is true, though in some ways it would make things simpler. The line between the U.S.-backed “moderate” rebels and the anti-ISIS Jihadist groups was always more fluid than anyone wanted to admit.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In his <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/magazine/theo-padnos-american-journalist-on-being-kidnapped-tortured-and-released-in-syria.html">recent account</a> of his months of captivity in Syria, journalist Theo Padnos recalls a conversation he had after running into a group of Free Syrian Army troops while he was still a captive of al-Nusra.</p>
<blockquote>
One told me that his unit had recently traveled to Jordan to receive training from American forces in fighting groups like the Nusra Front.
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
“Really?” I said. “The Americans? I hope it was good training.”
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
“Certainly, very,” he replied.
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
The fighters stared at me. I stared at them
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
After a few moments, I asked, “About this business of fighting Jebhat al-Nusra?”
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
“Oh, that,” one said. “We lied to the Americans about that.”
</blockquote>
<p>The White House never bought the “enemy of my enemy” logic when it came to ISIS and Nusra—it’s been bombing both of them, after all. This merger, along with&nbsp;<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.html">growing signs</a>&nbsp;that Washington is resigning itself to Bashar al-Assad’s long-term presence, could be an indication that the overlapping and intersecting battle lines in Syria are starting to clarify themselves. At the moment, the U.S., the Kurds, Iraqi Shiites, and—whether the Obama administration will admit it or not—the Syrian government are on one side, and ISIS and al-Qaida are on the other.</p>
<p>The big loser in all of this is likely to be the U.S.-backed rebels. In addition to ISIS and Nusra finding common cause, there are reports this week that the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/12/politics/obama-syria-strategy-review/index.html?c=&amp;page=0">White House is considering</a> revamping a Syria strategy many senior officials have come to see as unworkable. That strategy, which involved focusing primarily on rolling back ISIS in Iraq and didn’t involve strikes against Assad, never sat well with the rebels. A new one, which could involve a new diplomatic push for a cease-fire deal whose terms would likely be very disadvantageous to the Syrian opposition, would be even worse.</p>
<p>At the moment, as they wait to see how things play out, America’s friends in Syria are finding themselves stuck in a very uncomfortable middle.</p>Thu, 13 Nov 2014 22:05:33 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/what_will_change_if_isis_and_al_qaida_patch_things_up.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-13T22:05:33ZNews and PoliticsWhat Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?236141113002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/what_will_change_if_isis_and_al_qaida_patch_things_up.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhat Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?What Will Change if ISIS and al-Qaida Patch Things Up?Photo by Fadi al-Halabi/AFP/Getty ImagesSupporters of the al-Nusra Front protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the international coalition in Aleppo on Sept. 26, 2014.The Latest From Ukraine: A Cease-Fire No One Is Observing in a War No One Is Fightinghttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/the_latest_from_ukraine_a_cease_fire_no_one_is_observing_in_a_war_no_one.html
<p>I’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/vladimir_putin_ramps_up_his_postmodern_non_invasion_invasion_of_ukraine.html">written before</a> about Russia’s impressive feat of launching what appeared to the rest of the world to be an invasion of Ukraine without ever acknowledging that it was doing anything of the sort. So it’s not exactly surprising that the cease-fire declared in this war a few weeks ago doesn’t appear to have ceased any firing. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Officials in recent days have frequently described the peace in eastern Ukraine as “<a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49322#.VGTdaFfF9lw">under strain</a>.” Media reports say it’s “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/world/europe/in-ukraine-shelling-and-convoys-of-armed-trucks-threaten-cease-fire.html">threatened</a>.” The Russian government says its collapse “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/us-ukraine-crisis-military-idUSKCN0IX18C20141113">must not be allowed</a>.”</p>
<p>But what exactly is being protected here? Ukraine’s representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe says the agreement has been violated<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/cease-fire-eastern-ukraine-violated-2-400-times-osce-official-n247611"> more than 2,400 times</a> by militant groups since a truce was signed in Minsk on Sept. 5. And that’s not even counting shots that the Ukrainian military, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30019333">currently besieging</a> the rebel capital of Donetsk, has fired. The two sides repeatedly trade accusations over which one is primarily responsible for violations of the truce.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Recent days have seen some of the heaviest fighting in months around Donetsk, where the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/world/europe/rebel-backed-elections-in-eastern-ukraine.html">rebels held elections</a> in defiance of the Ukrainian government and its Western backers at the beginning of this month.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, NATO says Russian troops and weapons, including tanks, artillery, and air defense systems, are <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nato-says-russian-military-definitely-moving-into-ukraine/2014/11/12/aa89ebca-6a88-11e4-bafd-6598192a448d_story.html">once again moving</a> into eastern Ukraine.</p>
<p>The intensity of violence in the conflict seems to wax and wane, but it’s becoming apparent that conditions on the ground in eastern Ukraine do not in any way resemble a truce. It’s only fitting that this virtual war should have a virtual cease-fire as well. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>Thu, 13 Nov 2014 17:21:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/the_latest_from_ukraine_a_cease_fire_no_one_is_observing_in_a_war_no_one.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-13T17:21:00ZNews and PoliticsThe Latest From Ukraine: A Cease-Fire No One Is Observing in a War No One Is Fighting236141113001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/13/the_latest_from_ukraine_a_cease_fire_no_one_is_observing_in_a_war_no_one.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Latest From Ukraine: A Cease-Fire No One Is Observing in a War No One Is FightingThe Latest From Ukraine: A Cease-Fire No One Is Observing in a War No One Is FightingPhoto by Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty ImagesA Pro-Russian gunman gestures in front of damaged houses in the North West suburban of Donetsk on Nov. 13, 2014.The Upside of the Airpocalypsehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/12/china_u_s_emissions_deal_terrifying_air_pollution_forced_chinese_leaders.html
<p>For an administration that doesn’t have a lot of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.html">recent foreign policy wins</a> to point to, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/world/asia/china-us-xi-obama-apec.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0">climate accord between the United States and China</a> could be a very big one. In this case, the administration’s strategy of seeking international diplomatic opportunities that <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/obama_s_new_international_climate_change_strategy_how_do_you_negotiate_treaties.html">don’t require buy-in</a> from Congress seems to have worked out quite well for President Obama, though Republicans can still undermine the deal by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/us/politics/republicans-vow-to-fight-epa-and-approve-keystone-pipeline.html">scuttling America’s own emissions reduction policies</a>. But no matter the obstacles down the road, between this historic deal and the reduction targets <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/world/europe/european-leaders-agree-on-targets-to-fight-climate-change-.html">agreed to by the EU last month</a>, it’s been a rare productive couple of weeks for climate diplomacy.</p>
<p>Under the Beijing deal, the U.S. promises to emit 26 to 28 percent less carbon in 2025 than it did in 2005, double the previously pledged pace of reductions. More importantly, China has promised to reduce its carbon emissions after 2030.</p>
<p>This might seem disappointing at first—the world’s largest emitter gets to keep upping the pollution ante for 15 more years, and skeptics of the agreement point out that China was <a href="http://qz.com/295274/a-new-china-us-emissions-pledge-mostly-confirms-what-china-was-going-to-do-anyway/">already on the path</a> to doing this anyway—but this is the first time China has agreed to any absolute reduction in emissions. Beijing, which maintains that major emitters have “common but differentiated responsibilities” for addressing global warming due to their levels of economic development and historic pollution levels, has until now only agreed to limit its “carbon intensity”—the amount it emits per unit of GDP growth.</p>
<p>This accord, along with a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-china-agree-to-work-on-phasing-out-hydrofluorocarbons/2013/09/06/9037e072-170c-11e3-a2ec-b47e45e6f8ef_story.html">less heralded bilateral agreement last year</a> to phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons, the potent greenhouse gases used in many refrigerators and air conditioners, shows that the two countries that account for a third of global emissions have at last found some common ground. Given that the conventional wisdom has always been that China would never sacrifice economic growth for the environment, the pledge is a signal to other developing countries that nobody should get a pass when it comes to reducing emissions. It will be interesting, in particular, to watch the response from India’s Narendra Modi, whose government <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/30/-sp-narendra-modi-india-solar-renewables-energy">talks a big game</a> on renewable energy but has been skeptical about reduction targets.</p>
<p>Chinese officials have been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/03/china-pledges-limit-carbon-emissions">dropping hints</a> that they were considering an announcement like this for some time. China has also quietly been taking steps to <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/peak_coal_why_the_industrys_dominance_may_soon_be_over/2777/">address its coal consumption</a>, a factor that <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/Global/eastasia/publications/reports/climate-energy/2014/The-End-of-Chinas-Coal-Boom-Briefing.pdf">Greenpeace calls</a> the “single most significant determinant for the future of the world’s climate.” Not so long ago, China was adding <a href="http://www.wired.com/2008/02/chinas-2030-co2/">one or two coal plants</a> to its grid every week, and its increased coal burning accounted for nearly half of global CO2 emissions growth between 2002 and 2012.</p>
<p>But Chinese coal use may have <a href="http://www.rtcc.org/2014/10/23/chinas-coal-consumption-drops-for-first-time-this-century/">actually dropped this year</a>, and a number of regions have announced ambitious coal reduction targets. The city of Beijing plans to be <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/china-ban-all-coal-use-beijing-2020">entirely coal-free by 2020</a>. An <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/Global/eastasia/publications/reports/climate-energy/2014/The-End-of-Chinas-Coal-Boom-Briefing.pdf">uncharacteristically upbeat Greenpeace analysis</a> from last spring suggested that the current coal reduction targets would bring “China’s projected CO2 emissions in 2020 close to a trajectory that the International Energy Agency says would be in line with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.” (To sound a more pessimistic note, making that a reality would require other emitters to accomplish their reduction goals, which is an awfully big if.)</p>
<p>What spurred China to kick its coal habit? There are a number of factors, from cheap natural gas to falling prices for alternative energy sources. In addition to being Earth’s biggest polluter, China invests more in green energy than any country in the world. Under this new agreement, it has pledged that renewables will account for 20 percent of its energy production by 2030. The Chinese government also wants to reduce the country’s reliance on carbon-intensive heavy industry for its future economic growth.</p>
<p>But a big factor that can’t be ignored is pollution, particularly the infamous blankets of smog that regularly waft over Chinese cities. Air pollution and emissions aren’t the same thing, and there are even fears that some of the country’s smog reduction efforts <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/china-smog-reduction-water-stress">may increase emissions</a>. There is, though, a common primary culprit behind China’s air pollution and emissions problems: coal. By cutting down on coal consumption, the country will take a major step toward solving both problems at once.</p>
<p>As I <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/energy_around_the_world/2013/11/china_air_pollution_smog_in_beijing_can_t_be_censored.html">wrote last year</a>, air pollution differs from other political issues in China in that it’s essentially impossible for the government to hide it. It’s literally right in citizens’ faces. As the Greenpeace report puts it, air pollution was once “considered by most urban Chinese as an inevitable side effect of economic growth. … But in October 2011 an air pollution episode or ‘haze’ which lasted for weeks prompted Web commentators to question official air quality data for the first time.” Shortly thereafter, the government agreed to publish official measurements of particle pollution and set targets for reducing it.</p>
<p>The next major event was Beijing’s January 2013 “airpocalypse,” a period of pollution more than 40 times what the World Health Organization considers safe. The <em>Economist </em>has <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21583245-china-worlds-worst-polluter-largest-investor-green-energy-its-rise-will-have">called the event</a> a national environmental tipping point on par with Cleveland’s Cuyahoga River catching fire in 1969. The Environmental Protection Agency was established the next year. The magazine wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
The “airpocalypse” injected a new urgency into local debate about the environment—and produced a green-policy frenzy a few months later. In three weeks from the middle of June, the government unveiled a series of reforms to restrict air pollution. It started the country’s first carbon market, made prosecuting environmental crimes easier, and made local officials more accountable for air-quality problems in their areas. It also said China—meaning companies as well as government—would spend $275 billion over the next five years cleaning up the air.
</blockquote>
<p>China released its <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/13/world/asia/china-releases-plan-to-reduce-air-pollution.html">air pollution action plan</a> in September 2013. The airpocalypse, in short, likely spurred Chinese leaders to start thinking pollution as a <a href="http://phys.org/news/2014-03-health-china-polluted-air-bn.html">threat to growth</a> rather than an unfortunate byproduct of it.</p>
<p>We’re a long way from out of the woods on global warming, and have probably waited too long to avert many of its catastrophic effects. But harm reduction is still worthwhile, and it’s in the world’s best interest for the planet’s largest emitter to take this issue seriously. If the airpocalypse was the moment China got religion on coal and emissions, it may turn out to be one of the best things to ever happen in the fight against climate change.</p>Wed, 12 Nov 2014 16:48:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/12/china_u_s_emissions_deal_terrifying_air_pollution_forced_chinese_leaders.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-12T16:48:00ZNews and PoliticsCould China’s Terrifying 2013 “Airpocalypse” Have Helped Save the Planet?236141112001chinaglobal warmingJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/12/china_u_s_emissions_deal_terrifying_air_pollution_forced_chinese_leaders.htmlfalsefalsefalseCould China’s Terrifying 2013 “Airpocalypse” Have Helped Save the Planet?Could China’s Terrifying 2013 “Airpocalypse” Have Helped Save the Planet?Photo by ChinaFotoPress/Getty ImagesBuildings are shrouded in smog on Dec. 8, 2013, in Lianyungang, China.&nbsp;​Ebola Isn’t That Hard to Contain. So How Did It Get So Out of Control in the First Place?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/_ebola_isn_t_that_hard_to_contain_so_how_did_it_get_so_out_of_control_in.html
<p>The last American Ebola patient, Craig Spencer, has been given a clean bill of health and discharged from New York’s Bellevue Hospital. A number of people are still being monitored because of possible exposure to the disease, but assuming that no new cases are reported by early December—42 days after Spencer was diagnosed—the U.S. will join Nigeria and Senegal as countries that have beaten the disease this year. Spencer’s recovery also means that of the nine people treated in the United States for the disease, which has a <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-death-rate-70-percent-142131045.html">70 percent mortality rate</a> in West Africa, only one has died.</p>
<p>There’s also good news from Mali, which saw its first Ebola case—a 2-year-old girl who arrived from Guinea and died shortly after—in late October. The <em>New York Times </em><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/health/quick-response-and-old-fashioned-detective-work-thwart-ebola-in-mali.html?ref=world">reports that</a> a “21-day quarantine since the little girl’s death on Oct. 24 is almost over, and 41 of the 108 Malians in quarantine are due to be released Tuesday, and the remainder by Friday.” It’s looking increasingly like the Malian outbreak will be limited to one.</p>
<p>Malian authorities deserve credit for a quick response to prevent a catastrophic outbreak, but as the <em>Times</em> notes, the case also “illustrates how even people in close contact with victims do not necessarily get the disease, which spreads when infectious fluids get into an open cut, or a nose, eye, or mouth.” None of the people who touched the girl, including the three family members who traveled with her from Guinea and the dozens of doctors, nurses, and traditional healers who treated her, appear to have been affected.</p>
<p>A number of Nigerian readers were offended by a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.html">post I wrote a few weeks ago</a> that suggested that the country’s success in containing its outbreak tells us more about the characteristics of Ebola itself than the effectiveness of the Nigerian government’s response. My intention was certainly not to pick on Nigeria in particular. And certainly, politicians in my own country haven’t distinguished themselves in responding to the disease.</p>
<p>But the experiences of Nigeria, Senegal, Mali, and the United States—the countries outside the “hot zone” to which the disease has spread—do suggest that the conventional wisdom about Ebola before this very unusual outbreak was correct. While dangerous, the disease is difficult to spread, and with quick action to isolate patients and quarantine potential exposures, it should be possible to contain pretty quickly. This is true not only in wealthy countries like the United States but in poor and relatively unstable ones like Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/15/ebola-outbreak-central-africa-contained">mostly managed to contain</a> a separate outbreak that killed about 40 people this year—a story barely noticed by the international media.</p>
<p>All of this should raise tough questions for the governments of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—the countries where the virus is still raging—as well as <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/who_ebola_response_the_politics_and_economics_of_why_the_organization_was.html">international health organizations</a>, about how things got so out of hand when this outbreak might still have been containable. The fact that Sierra Leone this week <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/05/ebola-journalist-arrested-over-criticism-sierra-leone-government-response">arrested a journalist</a> who had criticized its response to the disease doesn’t suggest this is a conversation they’re looking forward to having.</p>Tue, 11 Nov 2014 20:44:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/_ebola_isn_t_that_hard_to_contain_so_how_did_it_get_so_out_of_control_in.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-11T20:44:00ZNews and Politics​Ebola Isn’t That Hard to Contain. So How Did It Get So Out of Control in the First Place?236141111002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/_ebola_isn_t_that_hard_to_contain_so_how_did_it_get_so_out_of_control_in.htmlfalsefalsefalse​Ebola Isn’t That Hard to Contain. So How Did It Get So Out of Control in the First Place?​Ebola Isn’t That Hard to Contain. So How Did It Get So Out of Control in the First Place?Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesDr. Craig Spencer, who was diagnosed with Ebola in New York City last month, hugs New York Mayor Bill de Blasio at a news conference at New York’s Bellevue Hospital after being declared free of the disease on Nov. 11, 2014, in New York City.The Obama Administration’s Biggest Human Rights Success Story Isn’t Looking So Great Nowhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.html
<p>It’s getting harder for the Obama administration to point to concrete foreign policy successes. (Not doing “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/world/americas/in-obamas-speeches-a-shifting-tone-on-terror.html">stupid shit</a>,” in the words of the president, may indeed be an accomplishment, but it’s hard to take credit for things you didn’t do.) And many of the potential successes it can point to—the ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations, the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons, the promising early days of the Russia “reset” before that took a very unfortunate turn—involved looking the other way on some pretty <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/iran_executions_and_acid_attacks_do_we_have_to_sell_out_human_rights_in.html">egregious human rights abuses</a>. During this week’s summit in Beijing, the White House’s previous efforts to reach out to the Chinese public have, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/world/asia/obama-apec-china-hong-kong.html">the <em>New York Times </em>reports</a>, been abandoned in favor of a more leader-centric approach.</p>
<p>When it comes to democracy and rights-promotion success stories, the White House could until recently point to Myanmar, also known as Burma, where the president will arrive tomorrow. Obama’s last visit to the country, in 2012, was indeed a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/world/asia/obama-heads-to-myanmar-as-it-promises-more-reforms.html?pagewanted=all">historic opening</a> to a place that had spent years as a North Korea-like pariah. In exchange <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-to-ease-some-sanctions-on-burma/2012/04/04/gIQAOCxOwS_story.html">for some sanctions relief</a>, Myanmar’s military leaders allowed landmark elections in 2012 in which longtime democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was elected to parliament. The government also agreed to review the status of a number of political prisoners and <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/myanmar-to-sign-new-nuclear-safeguards/story-fn3dxix6-1226519238353">agreed to nuclear inspections</a>.</p>
<p>In a speech at West Point last May, Obama <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/05/28/remarks-president-united-states-military-academy-commencement-ceremony">touted the country’s progress</a>, saying, “Thanks to the enormous courage of the people in that country, and because we took the diplomatic initiative, American leadership, we have seen political reforms opening a once closed society.” If Myanmar’s reforms succeed, he concluded, “We will have gained a new partner without having fired a shot.”</p>
<p>Things look a bit different now. Tens of thousands of Rohingya Muslims in the country’s west are being held in camps where a U.N. official recently described conditions as containing an “<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-wanted-burma-to-model-democratic-change-but-its-not-turning-out-that-way/2014/07/06/78321986-367b-4422-a896-69342e8874ac_story.html">element of genocide</a>,” and the country’s parliament is considering new restrictions on freedom of religion. Myanmar has fallen short on a number of <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/11/11/myanmar-falls-short-on-key-reform-pledges-made-to-obama-2-years-ago/">the key reforms</a> that were promised during Obama’s last visit. Despite promises to open up competition for the presidency, a parliamentary committee last June voted against <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/world/asia/myanmar-opposition-is-dealt-a-blow.html">changing a law</a> that bars Aung San Suu Kyi from running.</p>
<p>And even she, the Nobel Prize laureate and world-famous activist whom Obama will once again meet with on his trip, has <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/15/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-rohingya-disappointment/">disappointed many of her international admirers</a> with her silence on the plight of the Rohingya. “The lady” is, after all, a politician now, and one whose grasp on power is looking ever more tenuous.</p>
<p>Given that Washington is already pivoting to 2016 politics, Myanmar’s backsliding also <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/27/hillary_s_burma_problem">doesn’t look great for Hillary Clinton</a>, who, in 2011, was the first senior U.S. official to visit Myanmar in 50 years. The “<a href="http://www.washingtonian.com/articles/people/looking-ahead-to-2016-hillary-clintons-state-problem/">one clear-cut triumph</a>” of her tenure as secretary of state doesn’t look so clear-cut anymore.</p>
<p>Of course, the story isn’t over. Myanmar’s path to reform was inevitably going to be bumpy, and Obama will no doubt address its recent backsliding during his visit (as he’s being <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/opinion/mr-obamas-message-to-myanmar.html">widely urged to do</a>). And even if the process is a disappointment, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth trying.</p>
<p>But one of this White House’s signature foreign policy success stories—and one of the very few involving democracy or human rights—is looking pretty shaky at the moment.</p>Tue, 11 Nov 2014 18:36:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-11T18:36:00ZNews and PoliticsThe Obama Administration’s One Human Rights Success Story Isn’t Looking So Great Now236141111001BurmaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Obama Administration’s One Human Rights Success Story Isn’t Looking So Great NowThe Obama Administration’s One Human Rights Success Story Isn’t Looking So Great NowPhoto by Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty ImagesObama hugs Aung San Suu Kyi after speaking to the press following their meeting at her residence in Yangon on Nov. 19, 2012.&nbsp;How Much Does ISIS Really Need al-Baghdadi?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/isis_abu_bakr_al_baghdadi_may_have_been_injured_how_much_does_the_group.html
<p>A senior aide to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/09/isis-leader-baghdadi-fate-unclear-air-strike">reportedly killed in</a> a U.S. airstrike over the weekend. There are also some <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/09/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-baiji-idUSKBN0IT0AP20141109">sketchy and unconfirmed reports</a> that Baghdadi himself was injured.</p>
<p>The news is striking, in part, because of how rarely we hear anything about al-Baghdadi. When ISIS first swept across Iraq last summer, there were <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/16/abu_bakr_al_baghdadi_how_did_isis_s_leader_go_from_total_unknown_to_the.html">few available photos</a> of him and the scant available biographical information was often contradictory. Now, even after months of intense media scrutiny on the Islamic State, its leader still remains very much the “<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-abu-dua-invisible-sheikh-awwad-ibrahim-ali-al-badri-al-282939">invisible sheikh</a>.” For a man who considers himself the leader of <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/06/29/ISIS-jihadists-declare-caliphate-.html">the entire Muslim world</a>, he keeps an awfully low profile.</p>
<p>This raises the question of just how much ISIS, a group that has gone through four leaders in the last decade, really needs al-Baghdadi and how much it would miss him if he were gone.</p>
<p>He certainly isn’t serving as the face of the operation. With the notable exception of the ceremony in Mosul in July when he declared himself caliph, Baghdadi almost never appears in public and many of his own fighters have reportedly <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27801676">never seen him face to face</a>. Unlike al-Qaida’s Osama Bin Laden, for instance, he rarely appears in the group’s slickly produced propaganda videos. His official biography, which emphasizes his credentials as a religious scholar, is likely <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/11/how-isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-became-the-worlds-most-powerful-jihadi-leader/">at least partly fabricated</a>. From a PR standpoint—and this is more important than it sounds given how important it is for ISIS to continue to appeal to prospective foreign fighters—it doesn’t seem like all that much would change if he were taken out of the picture.</p>
<p>He also doesn’t seem to enjoy much standing with other jihadist groups, most of whom have rebuffed his proposals for cooperation and dismissed his self-identification as caliph. However, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/world/middleeast/egyptian-militant-group-pledges-loyalty-to-isis.html">the announcement today</a> that Egypt’s largest militant group has pledged its allegiance to ISIS may suggest that this is about to change.</p>
<p>Early features on al-Baghdadi emphasized his <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/02/iraq-isis-baghdadi-mystery.html">fundraising prowess</a> and his ability to tap into the network of wealthy donors who had originally funded his rivals in al-Qaida. But the amount of these donations may have been exaggerated to begin with and doesn’t appear to be a large part of the group’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/24/where_does_isis_get_its_money_and_how_much_does_it_have_left.html">cash flow today</a>. Oil revenues, taxes, tolls, and loot from the areas the group controls, not to mention prisoner ransoms, are probably a lot more important.</p>
<p>It also seems unlikely that al-Baghdadi is distinguishing himself through battlefield prowess. According to a <a href="http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/TSG-The-Islamic-State-Nov14.pdf">recent detailed analysis</a> of ISIS leadership by the Soufan Group, al-Baghdadi likely has “no military background or experience” and probably doesn’t&nbsp;directly take part in operations. The group’s military structure is decentralized, and al-Baghdadi doesn’t seem to micromanage his commanders. A “local commander will know what he has to achieve, and even where to attack, but the exact timing and method may be left to his discretion,” the report notes.</p>
<p>But while al-Baghdadi may not be a charismatic leader or a skilled military tactician, his skills as a politician appear formidable. The Soufan Group notes that his appointment as head of the organization in 2010 despite his lack of a “track record either as a fighter or as a leader” was a surprise to many ISIS members. But the report says that he has since “enhanced and consolidated his authority and control. He has had rivals killed and senior positions filled with his supporters.”</p>
<p>He has also, needless to say, built a massive pseudostate despite the opposition of <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html">every government in the region</a>, challenged century-old borders, and taken on Osama Bin Laden’s successor in a battle for control of the international jihadist movement. The man does not lack for audacity.</p>
<p>That ISIS hasn’t fallen apart yet is something of a marvel. The group’s fighters are a combination of locals and untrained international volunteers. Its leaders are a mix of lifelong jihadists and born-again ex-Baathists. Its resources are stretched thin across a territory it barely controls. The man who is keeping this all together through sheer willpower, audacity, and ruthlessness probably shouldn’t be underestimated.</p>
<p>Al-Baghdadi is certainly no Bin Laden. But another leader with his skill set would be hard to find.</p>Mon, 10 Nov 2014 21:00:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/isis_abu_bakr_al_baghdadi_may_have_been_injured_how_much_does_the_group.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-10T21:00:00ZNews and PoliticsWould ISIS Fall Apart If Its Reclusive Leader Were Killed?236141110002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/isis_abu_bakr_al_baghdadi_may_have_been_injured_how_much_does_the_group.htmlfalsefalsefalseWould ISIS Fall Apart If Its Reclusive Leader Were Killed?Would ISIS Fall Apart If Its Reclusive Leader Were Killed?Photo by Al-Furqan Media/Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesAbu Bakr al-Baghdadi preaches in Mosul, Iraq, on July 5, 2014.&nbsp;Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping Share One of History’s Most Awkward Handshakeshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/japan_s_shinzo_abe_and_china_s_xi_jinping_share_one_of_history_s_most_awkward.html
<p>As you can see in the video above, warmth and good will weren’t exactly radiating from Monday’s meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting was the two leaders’ first since they each took office, and took place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing.</p>
<p>The meeting was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-china-japan-idUSKCN0IU08420141110">reportedly the result</a> of months of backdoor talks between the two governments, which are locked in bitter disputes over control of islands in the East China Sea as well as long-simmering anger over World War II.</p>
<p>While the talks were hailed as a breakthrough, Xi in particular seemed intent on demonstrating to the Chinese public that this wasn’t a friendly get-together. In contrast to normal diplomatic protocol, the visiting Abe waited for Xi to show up at the Great Hall of the People rather than the other way around. Xi also doesn’t seem to respond to Abe’s greeting.</p>
<p>The two reportedly discussed maritime crisis management and what the Chinese foreign ministry called “historical issues” that “concern the feelings of more than 1.3 billion Chinese people.” While Japan’s chief Cabinet secretary said the two leaders “exchanged views frankly,” there was apparently no specific mention of either the islands or Abe’s <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304483804579281103015121712">controversial visit</a> to the Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates Japan’s war dead but also contains the remains of convicted war criminals.</p>
<p>The Xi-Abe love-fest wasn’t the only awkward encounter at the summit. Presidents Obama and Putin reportedly “<a href="http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/758974">greeted each other</a>” today but have not yet had a substantial conversation. Just last week, Russia announced <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/06/world/europe/russia-plans-to-boycott-2016-nuclear-meeting-hosted-by-obama-.html">plans to boycott</a> a 2016 nuclear summit that will be hosted by Obama.</p>Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:48:26 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/japan_s_shinzo_abe_and_china_s_xi_jinping_share_one_of_history_s_most_awkward.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-10T17:48:26ZNews and PoliticsThe Leaders of Japan and China Just Shared One of History’s Most Awkward Handshakes236141110001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/10/japan_s_shinzo_abe_and_china_s_xi_jinping_share_one_of_history_s_most_awkward.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Leaders of Japan and China Just Shared One of History’s Most Awkward HandshakesThe Leaders of Japan and China Just Shared One of History’s Most Awkward Handshakes1519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38843694520011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38843694520011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38843694520011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38843694520011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO38843694520011519028538001AQ~~,AAAAAASoY90~,_gW1ZHvKG_1U0LqDiRqg6y9siD7-Z_bO3884369452001Can You Create a Formula to Predict Mass Murder?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/early_warning_project_can_you_create_a_formula_to_predict_genocides_and.html
<p>“Genocide can destroy a culture instantly, like fire can destroy a building in an hour,&quot; <a href="http://www.pbs.org/pov/discoveringdominga/special_excerpt.php">wrote</a> Raphael Lemkin, the Polish-Jewish attorney who coined the term <em>genocide</em> and led the campaign to have it banned under international law after World War II.</p>
<p>While mass atrocities and genocides can occur quickly, they don’t come out of nowhere, with warning signs often evident years in advance. How predictable are these warning signs? Is it possible to discern where the next Nazis, Khmer Rouge, and Hutu Power will emerge?</p>
<p>A new initiative from the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum is looking to answer that question. The Early Warning Project, a collaboration between the D.C.-based museum and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth, is now rating countries on the likelihood of state-orchestrated mass atrocities. “The U.S. government has had estimates like this for a while, but they haven’t made them public. So part of this is to democratize this information and put it in the hands of public advocates, journalists, and others,” says Cameron Hudson, director of the Holocaust Museum’s <a href="http://www.ushmm.org/confront-genocide/about">Center for the Prevention of Genocide</a>.</p>
<p>The organizers say the full site will be operational in a few weeks. For now, you can check out the project, including <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/2014/07/31/2014-statistical-risk-assessments/">country ratings for 2014</a>, on a <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/">WordPress blog</a>.</p>
<p>The ratings combine assessments from a <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/2014/01/22/a-new-statistical-approach-to-assessing-risks-of-state-led-mass-killing/">number of statistical models</a>, rating political instability, the likelihood of civil wars and coups—mass atrocities are often preceded by violent changes of government—as well as economic factors and the ethnic composition of a country’s leaders. The site will combine these rankings with aggregated polls of experts to highlight countries where mass killings may occur. A <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/why-isnt-state-led-mass-killing-occurring-in-russias-north-caucasus/">recent expert roundup</a>, for instance, examined the likelihood of a mass killing in Russia’s restive North Caucasus region.</p>
<p>The 2014 list is led by a few predictable countries. The gray dots show the scores from the different statistical models that are being combined. The red dot is the average. The X axis shows the probability of an event taking place, so 0.15 equals 15 percent:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/23/burma-investigate-new-killings-rohingya">Myanmar (aka Burma)</a>, <a href="http://www.enoughproject.org/blogs/heiban-bible-school-nuba-mountains-bombed-second-time">Sudan</a>, and the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0CB4QFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slate.com%2Fblogs%2Fthe_world_%2F2014%2F05%2F12%2Fcentral_african_republic_the_world_s_most_ignored_conflict_could_soon_become.html&amp;ei=pnFZVJjnKvWTsQScm4GIBA&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3h-kZIUK3T78pHYBRq_rS-sOZ3A&amp;sig2=xILwrzJt7sK-4wtGLGWOWg&amp;bvm=bv.78677474,d.cWc">Central African Republic</a> are all places where atrocities against civilians have taken place recently. It’s not a stretch to think such events could happen again. Jay Ulfelder, a political scientist who helped develop the model, says this is a feature, not a bug. “Most of the time, the countries at the top of the list are not going to be surprising,” he says. “That’s good. If it were totally counterintuitive, we’d probably have a bad model.” Ulfelder, who’s also known for developing a <a href="http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/coup-forecasts-for-2014/">model for predicting the likelihood of military coups</a>, says “the value comes from the small number of cases that are counterintuitive.” Guinea, for instance, ranked just above Afghanistan, is “one that people in the atrocity prevention community aren’t talking about.”</p>
<p>Guinea’s inclusion makes some sense when you look at the underlying explanations. The country experienced a military coup in 2008 and has some <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/08/201386154259622267.html">ongoing ethnic violence</a>. (The 2014 Ebola outbreak does not factor into Guinea’s ranking, as most of the data the Early Warning Project are using at this point comes from 2012 and 2013.)</p>
<p>Rwanda’s high ranking is <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/2014/04/18/the-rwanda-enigma/">another surprise</a>. Though the country obviously has a history of mass atrocity, it’s been relatively stable and prosperous under Paul Kagame’s increasingly authoritarian but <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/08/magazine/paul-kagame-rwanda.html?pagewanted=all">internationally lauded</a> government. Nonetheless, the ethnic divides that led to the country’s genocide are still present, and <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/rwanda-deadly-fight-among-ruling-elite">fractures in the ruling elite</a> or discontent from the population could reignite them. As Ulfelder puts it, “Rwanda has taped over those issues but hasn’t really resolved them.”</p>
<p>It’s also interesting to see democratic India near the top of the list given recently elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/26/narendra_modi_can_india_s_prime_minister_ever_escape_his_controversial_past.html">controversial role </a>in Gujarat’s religious riots in 2002. Modi, once a hard-line Hindu nationalist, was chief minister of the state during riots that caused the deaths of hundreds, mainly Muslims. He is blamed by some for not doing enough to stop the violence, or even encouraging it, though he has denied these charges and has been cleared of any wrongdoing in court. Ulfelder says the score isn’t driven by Modi but has more to do with the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-20624798">conflict over Kashmir</a>, where “the historical model we’re using sees state-led mass killing until fairly recently.”</p>
<p>On the flip side, Zimbabwe, which saw mass killings during the <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/03/08/zimbabwe-no-justice-rampant-killings-torture">disputed election</a> of 2008 and where tension and uncertainty surround the question of who will succeed 90-year-old dictator Robert Mugabe, the world’s oldest president, gets a surprisingly low rating using the model. According to <a href="http://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/zimbabwe-simmers/">Ulfelder’s analysis</a>, Zimbabwe’s simmering political tensions could push it higher in a future assessment, but for now, it doesn’t have the overt crises that have pushed up the scores of other countries. The risk is there but it is not as imminent.</p>
<p>The model only measures the likelihood of mass atrocities perpetrated by governments. Iraq is high on the list not because of the massacres of civilians, particularly ethnic minorities, perpetrated by ISIS this year. Rather, it’s because of the high likelihood of atrocities by Iraqi government forces and associated Shiite militias—atrocities that are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-un-debate-on-iraq-hears-of-atrocities-committed-by-both-sides-2014-9">likely already taking place</a>.</p>
<p>Hudson says part of the goal of the project is educational, in keeping with the Holocaust Museum’s mission. “Education isn’t just about the Holocaust, it’s about what causes genocides to begin with,” he says. “What happened in the years from the 1920s to 1942 is much more useful for historical analysis than just the three years of mass killing. It’s a much more powerful story to tell in terms of how these events happen and how to prevent them.”</p>
<p>He also hopes the site will help human rights groups flag potential trouble spots before killings begin. “What we’re trying to do is move the conversation away from genocide <em>response</em>, which is all we talk about in Iraq, Syria, and Sudan, you name it, to start to have thoughtful conversations about a whole host of countries that are not in conflict but could begin to experience this kind of crisis,” he says. Hudson adds, “Avoiding a heart attack is better than going in for open heart surgery.”</p>
<p>The creators don’t claim that the model has anywhere near pinpoint accuracy. It can’t tell you when a potential Hitler or Pol Pot will translate words into actions. But it is a way of more empirically assessing an atmosphere of potential violence. This isn’t the first effort at data-driven atrocity prediction—a project from the Canada-based Sentinel Project that I <a href="http://ideas.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/04/01/mapping_hate_speech_to_predict_ethnic_violence">wrote about last year</a>, for instance, employs user-provided data to map the amount of hate speech in a country’s media. The advantage of the Early Warning Project is that it combines a number of factors. To return to Hudson’s medical metaphor, it can’t tell you that the patient is about to have a heart attack, but it can give you a pretty accurate measure of his cholesterol, weight, and stress level.</p>
<p>Any discussion of the international response to genocide is going to raise the controversial issue of humanitarian military intervention. The Obama administration, which has generally favored limited strikes against terrorists via drones or special forces over large-scale military interventions, has made exceptions in cases where genocide appeared likely. Obama <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/28/remarks-president-address-nation-libya">justified airstrikes</a> against Libya in 2011 on the grounds that they prevented an imminent “massacre” in Benghazi. The <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/07/yazidis_stranded_in_northern_iraq_will_the_u_s_being_airstrikes_to_stop.html">plight of Yazidi civilians</a> surrounded in northern Iraq helped prompt the ongoing military operation against ISIS that began last summer.</p>
<p>The U.S. isn’t the only country making these judgment calls. France, for instance, has in recent years <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-25183377">deployed peacekeeping troops</a> to bloody conflicts in its former colonies the Ivory Coast, Mali, and the Central African Republic.</p>
<p>There is no single algorithm that can tell governments when and how to step in to prevent bloodshed. But the Early Warning Project’s designers do see it as part of a toolkit to help make those calls. “We’re not in the business of making explicit policy recommendations, but we hope to inform those decisions,” Ulfelder says. “On balance, having better information available should make those decisions better.”</p>Thu, 06 Nov 2014 21:11:47 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/early_warning_project_can_you_create_a_formula_to_predict_genocides_and.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-06T21:11:47ZNews and PoliticsCan You Create a Formula to Predict Genocide?236141106002wargenocidehuman rightsdataJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/early_warning_project_can_you_create_a_formula_to_predict_genocides_and.htmlfalsefalsefalseCan You Create a Formula to Predict Genocide?Can You Create a Formula to Predict Genocide?Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesGuard towers and barbed wire at Auschwitz on Jan. 25, 2005.How Do America’s Abortion Laws Compare to the Rest of the World’s?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/how_do_america_s_abortion_laws_compare_to_the_rest_of_the_world.html
<p>The results of this week’s midterm elections in the United States were ambiguous when it comes to the question of abortion access. The Republican wave brought a swath of new anti-abortion lawmakers into Congress, governor’s mansions, and state legislatures, but voters—even in some pretty <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/health/2014/11/05/3589112/voters-reject-personhood/">conservative states</a>—by and large rejected controversial “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/04/personhood-colorado_n_6104120.html">fetal personhood</a>” amendments.</p>
<p>But how do American abortion laws compare to those in other countries? The map above, from a <a href="http://reproductiverights.org/sites/crr.civicactions.net/files/documents/20Years_Reform_Report.pdf">new report</a> from the Center for Reproductive Rights (<a href="http://reproductiverights.org/sites/crr.civicactions.net/files/documents/AbortionMap2014.PDF">full size here</a>), gives a simplified but useful snapshot.</p>
<p>In red countries, abortion is completely banned or only allowed to save the mother’s life. In orange, it’s allowed to preserve the mother’s health. In tan, exceptions can be made based on socioeconomic status. In green, access to abortion is not restricted by reason.</p>
<p>The divide is fairly obvious. With a few glaring exceptions like Ireland and Poland, wealthy industrialized countries and formerly communist nations—the First and Second worlds, to use the outdated Cold War terminology—have liberal abortion laws. Developing countries do not. (Another exception to that broad trend: Russia has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/15/world/europe/15iht-russia15.html">added a slew</a> of new restrictions on abortion, justified in part by concerns about the country’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/13/russia_birth_rate_did_vladimir_putin_really_boost_the_country_s_fertility.html">low birthrate</a>.)</p>
<p>The overall global trend has been toward liberalization. In Africa, for instance, several countries including Kenya, Ethiopia, and Rwanda have in recent years amended or clarified their laws to allow access to abortion in cases where the mother’s health may be in danger.</p>
<p>This hasn’t been the case in Latin America, which CRR says is “the only region in the world in which more than one country has amended its penal code to further restrict access to abortion services” in the past 20 years. Some of these restrictions are extremely draconian. In 1998, El Salvador eliminated all exceptions to its abortion laws, including in cases of rape and when the mother’s life is in danger. Nicaragua did the same in 2006. El Salvador and the Dominican Republic have both adopted constitutional measures that recognize conception as the beginning of life.</p>
<p>The exception is Uruguay, which in 2012 <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19986107">legalized abortion</a> during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. This was one of a number of liberal reforms, including the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana, pushed through by President Jose Mujica.*</p>
<p>First-trimester abortion is legal for any reason in Mexico City, but 16 other Mexican states have passed constitutional amendments banning it. Despite two recent <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29441299">highly publicized cases</a> of women dying in illegal abortion in Brazil, the topic was barely discussed in the recent presidential election.</p>
<p>The region’s lack of liberalization around abortion access—and further restrictions in some cases—is interesting to consider given its <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/07/voices-gomez-supreme-court-gay-marriage-latin-america/16863639/">relatively rapid pace</a> of transformation on gay rights. That discrepancy, as my colleague Mark Joseph Stern recently <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2014/07/07/feminism_loses_while_gay_equality_wins_and_it_s_all_about_sex.html">pointed out</a>, mirrors what’s happening in the United States.&nbsp;</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Nov. 6, 2014:</strong> This post originally misstated that&nbsp;Uruguayan President Jose Mujica is running for re-election. He is constitutionally barred from seeking another term.</em></p>Thu, 06 Nov 2014 20:01:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/how_do_america_s_abortion_laws_compare_to_the_rest_of_the_world.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-06T20:01:00ZNews and PoliticsHow Do America’s Abortion Laws Compare to the Rest of the World’s?236141106001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/06/how_do_america_s_abortion_laws_compare_to_the_rest_of_the_world.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow Do America’s Abortion Laws Compare to the Rest of the World’s?How Do America’s Abortion Laws Compare to the Rest of the World’s?Center for Reproductive RightsWhy Terrorists Use Vehicles as Weaponshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/05/car_attack_in_jerusalem_why_are_terrorists_ramming_vehicles_into_crowds.html
<p>Earlier today a Palestinian man who Israeli police say had connections to Hamas <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/06/world/middleeast/jerusalem-driver-plows-into-pedestrians.html?ref=world&amp;_r=0">drove a car</a> into a crowd near a light rail station in Jerusalem, killing one person and injuring a dozen others. It followed a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/world/middleeast/2-israeli-soldiers-wounded-near-egypt.html">strikingly similar attack</a> in the same area two weeks ago that killed a 3-month-old Israeli. In both cases, the driver was killed by police at the scene.</p>
<p>These attacks are the latest manifestations of the current <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/will_israel_s_closure_of_the_al_aqsa_mosque_lead_to_a_third_intifada.html">atmosphere of violence</a> and tension in Jerusalem. They are also the latest examples of a terrorist tactic that gets less discussion than many others but seems increasingly common, particularly in Israel.</p>
<p>Ramming attacks have been a weapon in the arsenal of Palestinian terrorists for some time now. During last summer’s fighting in Gaza, for instance, a <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/construction-vehicle-slams-jerusalem-bus-suspected-attack-police-110812447.html">construction excavator was</a> used to attack a bus in Jerusalem, earning the praise of a Hamas spokesman.</p>
<p>In 2011, when a stolen taxi rammed into a police roadblock outside a club in Tel Aviv, injuring seven, the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Background-Ramming-terror-attacks-in-recent-years"><em>Jerusalem Post</em> reported</a> that it was the fifth attack of its kind in the past three years. The worst of these was the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7485022.stm">2008 bulldozer attack</a> in Jerusalem that killed three people and injured dozens of others.</p>
<p>“It’s obviously an inferior tactic to bombings,” Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a counterterrorism researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told me, noting that one attacker died for every victim in both of the recent incidents. “In Israel, part of the reason you’re seeing it adopted is that the security barrier is fairly effective, which makes it hard to get bombs into the country.”</p>
<p>While the tactic may be most common in Israel, it’s appeared elsewhere as well. Two weeks ago a Canadian man believed to be an ISIS sympathizer <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/man-who-killed-soldier-car-was-radical-muslim-authorities-say-n230526">drove his car</a> into two soldiers in a parking lot in Quebec. In Beijing last year, three Uighurs <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/30/world/asia/china---tiananmen---arrests/">drove a jeep</a> into Beijing’s crowded Tiananmen Square, killing two and injuring about 40. In 2006, Mohammed Reza Taheri-Azar, a recent University of North Carolina graduate, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/11660817/#.VFpd9fTF9lw">drove an SUV</a> into “The Pit,” a popular campus gathering spot, injuring nine people. He told police after his arrest that he had wanted to “avenge the deaths or murders of Muslims around the world.”</p>
<p>A variation on ramming attacks is also recommended in the fall 2010 issue of <em>Inspire, </em>the English-language online magazine published by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. The magazine, which was <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jun/27/nation/la-na-nn-boston-marathon-bombing-suspect-indictment-20130627">read by the Tsarnaev brothers</a> and is known for advice columns like “Build a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” suggests that jihadis attach sharp steel blades or butcher’s knives to the front of a 4-by-4 pickup truck to create “a mowing machine, not to mow grass but mow down the enemies of Allah.”</p>
<p>The article recommends that practitioners take care to gather enough speed to “achieve maximum carnage” once crowds begin to scatter, and to choose their targets carefully. “If you can get through to ‘pedestrian only’ locations that exist in some downtown (city center) areas, that would be fabulous,” the author, editor-in-chief Yahya Ibrahim, writes. He also suggests a number of countries where such an attack could take place, including the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Denmark, and Holland. So far, thankfully, no one seems to have attempted an attack along these lines.</p>
<p>What ramming lacks in effectiveness, it makes up for in ease of preparation. It’s not hard to get your hands on a car, and driving one at high speeds into a crowd is a lot easier than building a bomb. <em>Inspire </em>notes that it is “a simple idea and there is not much involved in its preparation.” In a 2010 advisory, the FBI <a href="https://info.publicintelligence.net/DHS-TerroristRamming.pdf">suggested that</a> it “offers terrorists with limited access to explosives or weapons an opportunity to conduct a Homeland attack with minimal prior training or experience.”</p>
<p>Its crude simplicity makes it a tactic more likely to be employed by relatively unskilled “lone wolves” than organized and trained terrorist operatives. But like with many amateur terrorist tactics, the effect is as much psychological as physical. It sends the message that objects we take for granted can be transformed into weapons at the blink of an eye.</p>Wed, 05 Nov 2014 21:16:43 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/05/car_attack_in_jerusalem_why_are_terrorists_ramming_vehicles_into_crowds.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-05T21:16:43ZNews and PoliticsDisturbing New Terrorism Trend: Ramming a Vehicle into a Crowd of People236141105001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/05/car_attack_in_jerusalem_why_are_terrorists_ramming_vehicles_into_crowds.htmlfalsefalsefalseDisturbing New Terrorism Trend: Ramming a Vehicle into a Crowd of PeopleDisturbing New Terrorism Trend: Ramming a Vehicle into a Crowd of PeoplePhoto by MARINA PASSOS/AFP/Getty ImagesBystanders watch a Palestinian man drive a bulldozer along Jaffa Road in Jerusalem after ramming and overturning a bus on July 2, 2008.War and Basketballhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/mike_krzyzewski_says_keeping_ground_troops_out_of_syria_is_like_keeping.html
<p>It’s bad enough when coaches <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=5741408">employ questionable metaphors</a> to compare sports to war. But questionable metaphors comparing war to sports are so much worse.</p>
<p>The <em>Daily Beast</em>’s Josh Rogin <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/coach-k-obama-is-a-bad-coach-in-the-isis-war.html">reports that</a> while accepting an award from the Association of the U.S. Army&nbsp;last month, Duke and Team USA basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski took the opportunity to question President Obama’s “coaching” of the war against ISIS.</p>
<p>Discussing Obama’s pledge not to use U.S. ground troops against ISIS, Krzyzewski said, “It’s about letting your opponent know we are going to use our best players. And whether we use them or not, that’s up to the coach. You never tell your opponent you are not going to use [them], like I’m not going to play Grant Hill, J.J. Redick, [Christian] Laettner.” He also argued that America’s willingness to employ ground troops in foreign wars is the reason “we are a free country and we don’t play home games here.”</p>
<p>Committing ground overseas is a <em>bit</em> like playing Christian Laettner in a big game against UNC, but we need to add a few more variables to really make the analogy work. It would be more accurate to say that in advance of this big game, Laettner would have put in heroic but draining performances against conference opponents in back-to-back double-overtime games. Coach K would also have been hired as Duke’s coach based largely on a pledge not to make Laettner play in any more basketball games.</p>
<p>Duke would have to schedule the game unilaterally, because it would be unclear whether it was allowed under NCAA rules. Duke would have to play UNC not once, but in two games taking place simultaneously at Madison Square Garden and the Georgia Dome. In one of those games, players from Michigan would be playing on Coach K’s team; in the other, they would be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/13/can_iran_and_the_u_s_fight_with_each_other_in_iraq_and_against_each_other.html">working to actively undermine him</a>. Victory in either game would require convincing <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21625798-amid-fallout-iss-continuing-siege-kurdish-forces-kobane-turkish-government">Kentucky and Louisville</a> to join forces.</p>
<p>In both arenas, fans would be rioting, setting fire to concession stands, and flinging projectiles at the teams. The best-case scenario would require kowtowing to a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.html">tyrannical, criminal commissioner</a>. The worst case would involve a <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/10/24/sykes-picot-drew-lines-in-the-middle-easts-sand-that-blood-is-washing-away/">dramatic realignment of the ACC</a> that would throw the entire sport into chaos. No matter what, it would cost billions of dollars. Also, the game would probably end in a draw and Christian Laettner might die.</p>
<p>Though Krzyzewski doesn’t agree with Obama’s foreign policy, the two leaders of men do share a taste in terrible basketball metaphors. Back in January, <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/sep/07/barack-obama/what-obama-said-about-islamic-state-jv-team/">Obama told David Remnick</a>, in response to a question about ISIS, that “if a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.” What do you get when Christian Laettner sits the bench in a game against JV players dressed like Kobe Bryant? Either the worst basketball game ever or a foreign policy conversation that makes you do this:</p>Tue, 04 Nov 2014 20:00:08 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/mike_krzyzewski_says_keeping_ground_troops_out_of_syria_is_like_keeping.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-04T20:00:08ZNews and PoliticsCoach K’s Incredibly Dumb Comparison of ISIS to Basketball236141104003Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/mike_krzyzewski_says_keeping_ground_troops_out_of_syria_is_like_keeping.htmlfalsefalsefalseCoach K’s Incredibly Dumb Comparison of ISIS to BasketballCoach K’s Incredibly Dumb Comparison of ISIS to BasketballPhoto by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty ImagesMike Krzyzewski presents President Obama with a copy of the NCAA bracket on May 27, 2010.Americans Don’t Know Anything About African Geography, and That’s a Problemhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/ebola_confusion_americans_don_t_know_anything_about_african_geography_and.html
<p>The map above has been making the Internet rounds this week for obvious reasons.</p>
<p>One could quibble with the details. Congo recently had a <a href="http://time.com/3511101/ebola-congo-contained-spread/">now-contained outbreak</a> of a different strain of Ebola. A number of people are being <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/us-health-ebola-mali-idUSKBN0IN1HT20141103">monitored for possible exposure</a> in Mali. But the basic point is valid. The 2014 Ebola outbreak has provided abundant evidence that non-Africans’ understanding of the size and geographical diversity of the African continent is pretty appalling.</p>
<p>The tourism industry is apparently hurting in South Africa because travelers are nervous that “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/west_africans_aren_t_the_only_ones_who_are_ignorant_about_ebola.html">Ebola is in Africa</a>.” A teacher in Kentucky who performed mission work in Kenya has been <a href="http://www.wlky.com/news/local-school-teacher-resigns-in-midst-of-ebola-scare/29490276">forced to resign</a>. A <a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2014/10/24/council-bluffs-mission-trip-uganda-ebola-isolation/17825995/">teenager in Iowa</a> has agreed to self-isolate due to concerns about his recent travel to Uganda. A school in New Jersey <a href="http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Ebola-Fears-and-Arrival-of-2-African-Students-Prompt-Parents-to-Keep-Kids-Home-From-Local-School--279718882.html">forced two students</a> from Rwanda to stay home for 21 days. As <a href="http://www.africanbudgetsafaris.com/blog/is-safari-travel-safe-during-the-ebola-outbreak/#gallery/http://d2g6byanrj0o4m.cloudfront.net/images/3164/ebola-outbreak-proximity-to-safari-travel-destinations.jpg/">this other map</a> shows, these places are father away from the Ebola infection zone than several western European capitals. (None of this is to imply that the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/west-africans-in-washington-say-they-are-being-stigmatized-because-of-ebola-fear/2014/10/16/39442d18-54c6-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html?hpid=z2">needless stigmatization</a> of who <em>are</em> from Ebola-infected countries is justified.)&nbsp;</p>
<p>Geographical literacy is not a high point of the American education system. A <a href="http://education.nationalgeographic.com/media/file/NGS_RoadMapConcept_GERC_07.pdf">2010 survey</a> found that fewer than 30 percent of American students are proficient at geography by the standards of their grade level. These scores, as measured by the National Center for Education Statistics, <a href="http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/high-school-notes/2011/07/20/high-school-seniors-geography-scores-dont-improve">have been declining</a> since the 1990s.</p>
<p>The topic of Americans’ geographical literacy, or lack thereof, tends to come up when a previously under-discussed country is suddenly in the news. Last year, a <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/jtes/can-you-find-damascus-on-a-map">popular online quiz</a> demonstrated that very few people, including <a href="http://usvsth3m.com/post/59778656173/the-us-department-of-defense-isnt-sure-where-damascus">Department of Defense employees</a>, were able to find Damascus on a map at a time when the U.S. was seriously considering launching airstrikes against the country that city is located in.</p>
<p>At the time, Ezra Klein, then of the <em>Washington Post</em>, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/03/most-americans-cant-find-syria-on-a-map-so-what/">pushed back</a> against the meme, arguing that “where Syria sits on a globe has basically nothing to do with the wisdom of a punitive strike meant to uphold international norms against the use of chemical weapons.”</p>
<p>Maybe so, though I’d argue that the Syrian civil war’s subsequent spillover into Iraq, and the fact that the <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/10/24/sykes-picot-drew-lines-in-the-middle-easts-sand-that-blood-is-washing-away/">Middle East’s current borders</a> are very much at issue in that conflict, show that knowing where Syria is and what’s around it are necessary to understand the situation there.</p>
<p>If basic geographic knowledge is important for understanding violence in the Middle East, it’s <em>really </em>important for understanding the spread of a virus in West Africa. And if anything, people are probably even less informed about Africa than about the Middle East. We can all do a little better.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html"><em><strong><u>Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</u></strong></em></a></p>Tue, 04 Nov 2014 17:15:10 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/ebola_confusion_americans_don_t_know_anything_about_african_geography_and.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-04T17:15:10ZNews and PoliticsAmericans Don’t Know Anything About African Geography, and That’s a Problem236141104002ebolaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/ebola_confusion_americans_don_t_know_anything_about_african_geography_and.htmlfalsefalsefalseAmericans Don’t Know Anything About African Geography, and That’s a ProblemAmericans Don’t Know Anything About African Geography, and That’s a ProblemWhen Is the U.S. Going to Admit That Bashar al-Assad Is Going to Stay in Power?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.html
<p><em>Foreign Policy’s </em>Colum Lynch <a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/11/03/exclusive_washington_cuts_funds_for_investigating_bashar_al_assads_war_crimes">reports that</a> the State Department is cutting its funding for the Commission for International Justice and Accountability, a group that’s gathering information in Syria about war crimes perpetrated by Bashar al-Assad’s forces. The program was meant to collect evidence that could eventually be used to prosecute the Syrian president after he’s overthrown.</p>
<p>Assad has almost certainly committed war crimes, and is almost certainly continuing to do so. Just last week, an army helicopter <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/syria-barrel-bombs-idlib-2014102916136576544.html">dropped a barrel bomb</a>—one of the most <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/18/barrel_bombs_what_makes_syria_s_brutally_crude_new_weapon_so_effective.html">deadly and indiscriminate weapons</a> in the regime’s arsenal—on a displaced persons camp, reportedly killing at least 10 civilians.</p>
<p>There’s not much point in collecting documentation on Assad’s crimes, though, if the U.S. doesn’t anticipate him being overthrown. And it’s starting to look more and more like that’s what’s going on here.</p>
<p>The Obama administration may still insist that its Syria strategy rests on supporting moderate rebels against ISIS. But it’s getting harder to take this seriously. U.S. officials say they will <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/08/world/meast/isis-threat/index.html">turn their full attention</a> to Syria only after the Islamic State has been beaten back in Iraq, whenever that is, by which time the rebels will be in a better position to fight. But Washington has apparently <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/oct/06/pentagon-isis-syrian-rebel-offensive">yet to decide</a> who to get behind out of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/world/middleeast/us-pins-hope-on-syrian-rebels-with-loyalties-all-over-the-map.html">the hundreds of militias</a> that’s fighting Assad, many of whom are increasingly aligned with extremist factions the U.S. finds unacceptable.. In another discouraging sign, U.S.-backed rebels were <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-backed-syria-rebels-routed-by-fighters-linked-to-al-qaeda/2014/11/02/7a8b1351-8fb7-4f7e-a477-66ec0a0aaf34_story.html">routed from their northern strongholds</a> by the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra last weekend.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding the lack of suitable U.S. partners on the ground in Syria, if the U.S. really wanted to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, it would have overthrown Bashar al-Assad. Washington could have intervened against the Syrian government in the early days of the Syrian civil war, or last year when the Obama administration actively considered airstrikes against Damascus.</p>
<p>It seems to be more acceptable now for mainstream foreign policy voices in Washington to suggest that a resolution to the crisis might require Assad staying in power. In the <em>New York Review of Books, </em>Jessica Matthews, outgoing president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/nov/06/there-answer-syria/">writes that</a> the U.S. should take advantage of a rare moment of agreement with both Saudi Arabia and Iran and lead an international push for a peace deal that would allow Assad to remain in power but with “most of his power dispersed to regional governors, the prime minister, the parliament, and the military.”</p>
<p>“Though he is a war criminal, Assad’s personal fate matters less at this point than his country’s,” she writes.</p>
<p>The prospect of Assad remaining in power after the carnage of the last three years is grim, but it appears to be an idea that American leaders are coming around to. They’re just not ready to admit it publicly.</p>Tue, 04 Nov 2014 17:07:42 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-04T17:07:42ZNews and PoliticsWhen Is the U.S. Going to Admit That Bashar al-Assad Is Going to Stay in Power?236141104001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/04/u_s_suspends_funds_to_investigate_assad_s_war_crimes_when_will_the_obama.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhen Is the U.S. Going to Admit That Bashar al-Assad Is Going to Stay in Power?When Is the U.S. Going to Admit That Bashar al-Assad Is Going to Stay in Power?Photo by LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty ImagesSyrian children living in Athens take part in a demonstration against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Athens on March 15, 2012.If It Happened There: Americans to Elect Legislature&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/03/if_it_happened_there_how_would_we_cover_the_midterm_elections_if_they_happened.html
<p><em>The latest installment in a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/i/if_it_happened_there.html">continuing series</a>&nbsp;in which American events are described using the tropes and tone normally employed by the American media to describe events in other countries.</em></p>
<p>WASHINGTON, United States—On Tuesday, voters in this country of 300 million, the world’s second-largest democracy and most populous Christian nation, will head to the polls for elections that will determine control of the upper house of the legislature and serve as a referendum on the country’s embattled ruling regime.</p>
<p>While international monitors expect a mostly free and fair contest, questions have been raised about why the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/01/politics/4-billion-expensive-election/">equivalent of the GDP of Montenegro</a> is being spent on a contest to determine the membership of a body expected to accomplish little over the next two years. Human rights observers have also noted a troubling rise in anti-immigrant rhetoric stoked by far-right nationalist candidates.</p>
<p>President Barack Obama’s ruling party will almost certainly lose seats, but whether or not the opposition is able to take over the upper house will be determined by closely fought races in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/us/senate-control-may-be-decided-by-runoff-votes-in-louisiana-and-georgia.html?ref=politics">nation’s torrid southeastern swamps</a>, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/iowa-2014-elections-bruce-braley-joni-ernst-112449.html">central agricultural region</a>, and even <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2014/1102/Senate-elections-101-In-remote-Alaska-remotest-places-could-be-crucial">frigid Arctic villages</a> thousands of miles from the capital.</p>
<p>There is no shortage of pressing issues, from a sluggish economic recovery to multiple foreign wars, facing this large and diverse society. Still, elections in this vast nation can often be characterized by idiosyncratic local rituals. In this campaign season, feats of strength involving dominating animals have been popular. One opposition candidate for national office has boasted of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/03/joni-ernst-pig-castrator-iowa-win-senate-republicans?CMP=ema_565">castrating pigs</a>, another of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBNQBx6JOcw">wrestling alligators</a>. While the country’s citizens have migrated en masse to large cities in search of greater economic opportunity, specialists in American folkways say people here still value these demonstrations of rural aptitude. Not to be outdone, government loyalists have boasted of their <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7Pa16JPUlY">marksmanship</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6LXyj62FVQ">snowmobiling</a> skills.</p>
<p>Appealing to nationalist sentiment, the opposition has accused the government of allowing too many immigrants to make their way across the country’s southern border, tying this issue to fears of deadly <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.html">viruses and terrorism</a>. There have also been disturbing unconfirmed reports of a “<a href="http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26598933/colorados-war-women-and-u-s-senate-race">war on women</a>” being waged by religious extremists in the country’s Western mountains.</p>
<p>In this deeply traditional society, where great import is accorded to family ties, powerful clans build patronage networks, and political office is often passed between relatives. Remarkably, one race pits the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Perdue">cousin of a former governor</a> against the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Nunn">daughter of a former senator</a>.</p>
<p>With control of the upper house coming down to just a few key races, the election has been bitter, combative, and expensive. In one coastal state, the ruling party and its supporters have spent <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/22/these-10-candidates-have-faced-163-million-in-negative-ads-and-thats-a-low-estimate/">more than $26 million</a> attacking a single opposition candidate. Not surprisingly, the election has also become a contest for influence among America’s <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/05/tom-steyer-vs-the-koch-brothers-2014s-battle-of-the-billionaires/">politically powerful oligarchs</a>, who often seek to control elections by employing a complex form of legally sanctioned slush funds.</p>
<p>The vast fortunes spent and passions aroused are particularly noteworthy given that few expect the legislature to pass much in the way of meaningful legislation. America is still governed under an <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2013/10/juan_linz_dies_yale_political_scientist_explains_why_government_by_crisis.html">unwieldy 18<sup>th</sup>-century political model</a> employed by few other functioning democracies. With the executive mansion and legislature controlled by two different parties, there’s little hope of large-scale reforms.</p>
<p>While 2014 has seen a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/06/05/should_we_always_oppose_military_coups.html">rash of military coups</a> and America boasts both a staggering level of income inequality and the world’s most heavily armed populace, political forecasters say a violent uprising is still unlikely. While few are satisfied with the political process as it exists, most Americans are either apathetic about the state of affairs or deeply invested in the current system. Most are already gearing up for the all-important presidential election coming in two years. Not surprisingly, many expect it to be another brutal contest between the country’s two top political dynasties.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>Mon, 03 Nov 2014 23:01:49 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/03/if_it_happened_there_how_would_we_cover_the_midterm_elections_if_they_happened.htmlJoshua Keating2014-11-03T23:01:49ZNews and PoliticsHow Would the U.S. Media Cover the Midterm Elections if They Happened in Another Country?236141103001if it happened thereJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/03/if_it_happened_there_how_would_we_cover_the_midterm_elections_if_they_happened.htmlfalsefalsefalseHow Would the U.S. Media Cover the Midterm Elections if They Happened in Another Country?How Would the U.S. Media Cover the Midterm Elections if They Happened in Another Country?Photo by Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty ImagesSpeakers at an opposition rally in Kentucky.&nbsp;Russia Buzzes the Towerhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/why_do_russian_jets_keep_buzzing_european_countries.html
<p>According to NATO, jets from its member states <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/nato-jets-intercept-russian-warplanes?CMP=ema_565">scrambled earlier this week</a> to intercept four different groups of Russian aircraft in the space of 24 hours. In the largest incident, four Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers and a refueling tanker were tracked by Norwegian, Portuguese, and British fighters over the Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. In another case, two Tu-95s were tracked by Turkish aircraft over the Black Sea. Other incidents involved planes from Germany as well as non-NATO members Sweden and Finland.</p>
<p>These types of events aren’t that unusual—there have been about 100 intercepts this year—but the frequency of them is. None of these cases involved Russian military planes actually entering another country’s airspace, though that did reportedly happen last week when an Ilyushin-20 spy plane <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29736481">entered Estonian territory</a> for about a minute according to that country’s government. That followed a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/24/estonia-border-incidents-russia-new-divide/17845141/">still-unresolved incident</a> in September when an Estonian intelligence agent was seized in a cross-border raid and taken to Moscow.</p>
<p>There was also a bizarre case earlier this month in which Sweden launched a multi-day hunt for a foreign submarine that it believed had entered its waters. The “Hunt for Reds in October” quickly <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9bd892c2-5b7c-11e4-b68a-00144feab7de.html#axzz3HdqF8xFW">descended into farce</a> with a local fisherman being mistaken for a Russian <em>spetsnaz</em> commando and the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces describing the situation as “plainly and simply fucked up.” The hunt was eventually <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/985f9c900ed447309399dcce29307919/sweden-calls-search-submarine">called off</a>, but many felt it exposed the Swedish military as not all that prepared to counter potential threats.</p>
<p>Putting aside the Swedish submarine situation, which very well might have been a false alarm, Russia’s military does seem to be testing the defense of its neighbors in Europe and occasionally <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/19/us/russian-plane-incidents/">across the Arctic Circle in North America</a>. This is <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140607/DEFREG01/306070013/Russian-NATO-Arms-Race-Takes-Shape">happening at a time</a> when the region is becoming increasingly militarized as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.</p>
<p>This doesn’t necessarily mean Russia is preparing for war, and open conflict between Russia and NATO countries still seems pretty unlikely. It probably has more to do with Russia seeing how much it can get away with, and making it clear that it disapproves of Europe’s pro-Ukraine stance. But as <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/why_the_mh17_crash_might_change_nothing_at_all_in_ukraine.html">June’s shootdown</a> of a Malaysian airliner demonstrated, tragedies can happen when there are itchy fingers on the triggers of anti-aircraft missiles.</p>Thu, 30 Oct 2014 20:54:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/why_do_russian_jets_keep_buzzing_european_countries.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-30T20:54:00ZNews and PoliticsWhy Do Russian Jets Keep Buzzing European Countries?236141030002russiamilitaryJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/why_do_russian_jets_keep_buzzing_european_countries.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Do Russian Jets Keep Buzzing European Countries?Why Do Russian Jets Keep Buzzing European Countries?Photo by YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty ImagesTupolev Tu-95 bombers fly above the Kremlin on May 7, 2014.Will Israel’s Closure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque Lead to a Third Intifada?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/will_israel_s_closure_of_the_al_aqsa_mosque_lead_to_a_third_intifada.html
<p>There’s some depressing d&eacute;j&agrave; vu in Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.623602">statement</a> that Israel’s closure of the al-Aqsa mosque on Thursday constitutes an “act of war.” The phrase gets <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09/28/benjamin-netanyahu-defends-nations-moral-army-after-palestinian-leader-accuses-israel-of-war-crimes/">bandied about</a> an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/24/netanyahu-peace-outline-palestinians_n_866318.html">awful lot</a> in this conflict, including in reference to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8950791/Israel-closure-of-al-Aqsa-mosque-ramp-a-declaration-of-war.html">previous occasions</a> when access to the mosque was restricted. This is in large part because the two sides frequently are in a state of war or something close to it. But the constant fever pitch rhetoric can also make it difficult to isolate the perpetual conflict’s real turning points.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-mideast-palestinians-israel-shooting-idUSKBN0IJ0FX20141030">current outbreak of violence</a> in Jerusalem is in response to the police killing of a suspect in the attempted assassination of far-right religious activist Yehuda Glick. The U.S.-born Glick is a leader of the campaign for Jews to be allowed to pray at the al-Aqsa compound—one of the city’s main religious flashpoints.</p>
<p>It’s not unusual for Israel to restrict access to the mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam. The <em>New York</em> <em>Times</em> reports, citing the Israeli interior ministry, that “Israel had restricted Muslim access, usually barring men under 50, on 40 occasions this year, up from eight days in 2013.” But this is believed to be the first time that the Temple Mount complex has been closed off entirely since Ariel Sharon paid it a controversial visit in 2000, the precipitating event behind the <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/intifada2.htm">Second Intifada</a> in which more than 1,000 Israelis and 3,000 Palestinians were killed.</p>
<p>Could something similar happen now? Some observers say that with historically high levels of rioting in recent days, Jerusalem already is experiencing a “<a href="http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Jerusalems-silent-intifada-is-anything-but-silent-380001">silent intifada</a>,” though the city’s police <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/jerusalem-violence-isnt-new-intifada-says-senior-cop/">dismiss the idea</a>, saying the situation is under control.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Abbas’s Fatah party has called for a “day of rage” tomorrow, a <a href="http://www.vox.com/2014/7/25/5936655/days-of-rage-the-strange-history-of-the-term-palestinians-use-for">common term</a> for Palestinian demonstrations, but the president has been adamant that he is not calling for another Intifada. “If we were calling for an intifada, we would have done so during the 50 days of Operation Protective Edge,” <a href="http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/186771#.VFJsjfTF9lw">he said</a> this week, referring to the summer’s war in Gaza.</p>
<p>At that time, too, there were fears of a third intifada, and Hamas explicitly <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.598627">called for one</a>. But while there were several “days of rage” on the West Bank in solidarity with Gaza, these <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/middle-east-unrest/analysis-who-will-heed-hamas-call-third-intifada-n165961">never turned into</a> the widespread uprising that many were expecting. &nbsp;</p>
<p>There are a number of reasons for this. The Palestinian leadership <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/10/another-intifada-works-20141025379983698.html">isn’t as united</a> and the populace is less well armed than in 2000. Other Arab governments, distracted by a myriad of other crises, aren’t as focused on the Palestinian issue as they used to be. (Though the al-Aqsa closure is likely to irritate the government of Jordan, the <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Mar-31/212103-jordan-king-abbas-ink-deal-to-defend-jerusalem.ashx#ixzz2PF0GUDFF">official custodian</a> of Jerusalem’s Muslim holy sites, which has been coming under increasing pressure over its relations with Israel.) There has also not been much enthusiasm among Palestinian leaders for another intifada given that the violence of the previous two <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2014/Jul-09/263175-palestinians-wont-launch-a-new-intifada.ashx#axzz370Bqc7Zm">didn’t do much</a> to advance the cause.</p>
<p>Another big difference is that Abbas is president today, not Yasser Arafat. The Palestinian foreign minister has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/20/us-palestinian-israel-uprising-idUSKBN0EV19M20140620">gone on record</a> saying, “as long as [Abbas] is in charge, there will be no third Intifada.” One possible reason for Abbas’s reluctance: a mass uprising could potentially be directed against the president’s Palestine Liberation Organization as well as Israel.</p>
<p>Things are likely to get uglier, with Friday in particular likely to see more violence. A lot will depend on how long Israel will keep the Temple Mount closed, and how far the Palestinian government will go in supporting mass demonstrations. Given the incentives here, there’s a good chance things might settle back down very quickly to the status quo—which is to say, a baseline level of sporadic violence and seething tension.</p>Thu, 30 Oct 2014 20:50:41 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/will_israel_s_closure_of_the_al_aqsa_mosque_lead_to_a_third_intifada.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-30T20:50:41ZNews and PoliticsWill Israel’s Closure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque Lead to a Third Intifada?236141030001israelIsrael PalestineJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/30/will_israel_s_closure_of_the_al_aqsa_mosque_lead_to_a_third_intifada.htmlfalsefalsefalseWill Israel’s Closure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque Lead to a Third Intifada?Will Israel’s Closure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque Lead to a Third Intifada?Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP/Getty ImagesA masked Palestinian youth throws a rock during clashes with Israeli security forces in east Jerusalem on October 30, 2014.&nbsp;The Slow-Motion Dismemberment of Ukraine Continueshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/elections_in_donetsk_and_luhansk_the_slow_motion_dismemberment_of_ukraine.html
<p>Pro-Western parties <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/10/27/359280290/pro-western-parties-sweep-ukraines-parliamentary-elections">swept Ukraine’s parliamentary elections</a> on Sunday, which isn’t a great surprise given that not that many people in the more pro-Russian eastern part of the country voted. <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-ukraines-east-low-voter-turnout-in-election-signals-kievs-challenges-1414358482">Turnout was low</a> in areas of Eastern Ukraine that are under Kiev’s control and didn’t happen at all in the self-declared independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.</p>
<p>Those places are holding <a href="http://en.itar-tass.com/world/752348">their own elections</a> this Sunday, with Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/28/russia-backs-separatist-vote-donbass-ukraine-sergei-lavrov">saying on Tuesday</a>, “We will of course recognize the results.” The announcement was condemned by the government in Kiev, as well <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-ukraine-crisis-elections-criticism-idUSKBN0II24Y20141029">as the EU and UN</a>, who accused Moscow of undermining the terms of a peace deal it supported in September.</p>
<p>This is a bit of a change of tack for the Russian government, which has previously stopped short of recognizing the “republics” as independent. For instance, after separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk held secession referendums in May, the foreign ministry <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/world/europe/ukraine.html">didn’t respond</a> to requests for Russia to absorb the regions as they had with Crimea earlier this year.</p>
<p>The Putin government’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/28/dozens_killed_in_ukrainian_operation_to_retake_east_is_putin_selling_out.html">on-again, off-again relationship</a> with the separatists makes some sense if the end goal is not actually to create new states in Eastern Ukraine or to absorb new territory into Russia, but to keep the pro-Western government in Kiev permanently destabilized and unable to control large portions of its territory.</p>
<p>Under the Minsk Protocol, the agreement hammed out by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the separatists, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29290246">last month</a>, Kiev agreed to cede power to the regions so long as they stayed part of Ukraine. Separate unrecognized parliamentary elections certainly seem to undermine that goal, as does <a href="http://www.dw.de/heavy-shelling-breaks-out-near-donetsk-after-ukraine-poll/a-18022896">continued shelling</a>.</p>
<p>With voters in Eastern Ukraine either cut out of the process entirely or ambivalent about it, the polls did indeed give “strong and irreversible backing to Ukraine's path to Europe,&quot; as President Petro Proshenko put it. But the country’s de facto dismemberment also seems to be accelerating.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>Wed, 29 Oct 2014 22:14:42 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/elections_in_donetsk_and_luhansk_the_slow_motion_dismemberment_of_ukraine.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-29T22:14:42ZNews and PoliticsThe Slow-Motion Dismemberment of Ukraine Continues236141029003ukrainerussiaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/elections_in_donetsk_and_luhansk_the_slow_motion_dismemberment_of_ukraine.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Slow-Motion Dismemberment of Ukraine ContinuesThe Slow-Motion Dismemberment of Ukraine ContinuesPhoto by DMITRY SEREBRYAKOV/AFP/Getty ImagesPeople hold Russian flags, flags of nationalist movements and flags of the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Donetsk' and 'People's Republic of Luhansk' in eastern Ukraine as they take part in a rally in support of the self-proclaimed 'People's Republics', in Moscow on October 18, 2014.&nbsp;Why Do So Many African Presidents Die in Office?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/zambia_s_michael_sata_dies_why_do_so_many_african_presidents_die_in_office.html
<p>Michael Sata, the president of Zambia, has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/world/africa/michael-sata-sharp-tongued-president-of-zambia-dies-at-77.html?ref=world&amp;_r=0">died in a London hospital</a> after suffering for months from an undisclosed illness. This is notable for a couple of reasons.</p>
<p>For one, Guy Scott, Sata’s vice president, has now become Africa’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-zambia-sata-idUSKBN0II06S20141029">first white president</a> since 1994. That’s when South Africa’s last apartheid president, F.W. de Klerk, was defeated by Nelson Mandela. He won’t be around for long—elections are due to be held in three months and Scott, whose parents were not born in Zambia, is ineligible to run for the office.</p>
<p>For another thing, Sata, whose aggressive political style—including the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zambia/8777317/Zambian-election-a-referendum-on-China.html">sharp anti-Chinese rhetoric</a> that got him elected in 2011—earned him the nickname Cobra, is the second Zambian president to die in office in less than a decade. Levy Mwanawasa, who passed away in 2008, <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2008/0729/p04s01-woaf.html">also spent the last few months of his life suffering</a> from a mysterious and undisclosed illness, absent for weeks at a time while receiving treatment abroad.</p>
<p>Sata mocked reports that he was suffering from a terminal illness before departing for the UN General Assembly last month, saying,&nbsp;“I am not dead yet.” He then missed his appearance at the assembly amid reports that he had taken ill in his New York hotel room.</p>
<p>The phenomenon isn’t limited to African leaders. Hugo Ch&aacute;vez kept the true state of his health under wraps and experienced a number of miraculous recoveries before finally succumbing to cancer last year. Mysterious, possibly health-related disappearances are also a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/09/kim_jong_un_hasn_t_been_seen_for_37_days_where_could_the_north_korean_leader.html">longstanding tradition</a> in North Korea’s Kim family, and the king of Saudi Arabia, who’s still kicking, has <a href="http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/saudi-king-holds-audience-dismissing-health-rumours-1.1237444">also downplayed rumors</a> of his impending demise.</p>
<p>Presidential deaths, though, do seem to be more common in Africa. According to a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-19356410">2012 BBC article</a>, 10 African leaders died in office between 2008 and 2012 compared to only three in the rest of the world. Two of those African leaders, Guinea-Bissau’s <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7918061.stm">Joao Bernardo Vieira</a> and Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi, died under not so peaceful circumstances. But in 2012 alone, the presidents of Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Guinea-Bissau (a different president, Malam Bacai Sanh&aacute;) died in office of natural causes. All had suffered from mysterious ailments and had denied rumors about their ill health prior to their deaths.</p>
<p>There are a few possible reasons for this. African heads of state tend to be a bit older than counterparts in the rest of the world while their countries’ overall life expectancies are a bit shorter. The continent also has its share of long-term autocrats and presidents for life, though Zambia’s Sata and Ghana’s John Atta Mills were both democratically elected just a few years before their deaths.</p>
<p>It’s a small sample size and some of this is probably just a coincidence. But Sata’s death may focus some new attention on his ally, the world’s oldest president, Robert Mugabe of neighboring Zimbabwe. (That Sata was a staunch Mugabe supporter while also appointing a white vice president is one of the more intriguing aspects of his political career.) The 90-year-old Mugabe has <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2010/0915/Zimbabwe-President-Mugabe-dismisses-rumors-of-poor-health">long disputed rumors</a> he’s in poor health and he’s outlasted most of his enemies, but he’s almost certain to die in office. There’s reportedly already a succession battle going on in Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-27/mugabe-s-wife-gucci-grace-said-to-spark-zimbabwe-party-split.html">involving a number of figures</a>, including his wife Grace and his vice-president Joice Mujuru. It’s likely to get messy as soon as Mugabe dies, whenever that is.</p>Wed, 29 Oct 2014 19:49:43 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/zambia_s_michael_sata_dies_why_do_so_many_african_presidents_die_in_office.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-29T19:49:43ZNews and PoliticsWhy Do So Many African Presidents Die in Office?236141029002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/zambia_s_michael_sata_dies_why_do_so_many_african_presidents_die_in_office.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Do So Many African Presidents Die in Office?Why Do So Many African Presidents Die in Office?Photo by STRINGER/AFP/Getty ImagesMichael Sata in September.&nbsp;Why the Obama Administration Is Calling Benjamin Netanyahu “Chickenshit” Behind Closed Doorshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/_chickenshit_u_s_officials_tells_us_what_they_really_thinking_about_benjamin.html
<p>The big diplomatic story of the day is an anonymous Obama administration official’s claim, in an <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/10/the-crisis-in-us-israel-relations-is-officially-here/382031/"><em>Atlantic </em>feature</a> by Jeffrey Goldberg, that Benjamin Netanyahu is a “chickenshit.” Why is the Israeli prime minister a chickenshit? Because “he won’t do anything to reach an accommodation with the Palestinians or with the Sunni Arab states. The only thing he’s interested in is protecting himself from political defeat. He’s not [Yitzhak] Rabin, he’s not [Ariel] Sharon, he’s certainly no [Menachem] Begin. He’s got no guts.” In the same story, another official concurs that Netanyahu is a “chickenshit” and adds that he’s a “coward” with regards to launching a possible preemptive strike to forestall Iran’s nuclear capabilities.</p>
<p>Let’s put aside for a moment the inherent irony of using an anonymous quote to call someone a coward while the Obama administration publicly issues paeans to the frank and productive partnership between Israel and U.S. Instead, I’ll note that this is the second notable anonymous scatological description of the Israeli government by an anonymous American to hit the Internet this week. Discussing the Obama administration’s snub of Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon—he was denied meetings with both Vice President Joe Biden and National Security Advisor Susan Rice during a recent trip to Washington—a “pro-Israel congressional aide” <a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/10/27/white_house_undermines_top_israeli_official_at_home_netanyahu_Israel">told <em>Foreign Policy’s </em>John Hudson</a>, “There is a limit to how much you can shit all over the White House and expect to get every meeting you want.”</p>
<p>Yaalon had <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.568577">previously described</a> Secretary of State John Kerry as “obsessive and messianic.” That was fairly mild compared to the anonymous Israeli officials who described one of Kerry’s peace proposals during last summer’s Gaza War as a “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/28/israel-gaza-us-ceasefire-diplomacy-criticism-kerry">strategic terrorist attack</a>” against Israel.</p>
<p>So, everyone seems to be in basic agreement on just how shitty relations have become between the U.S. and Israeli governments. Following Yaalon’s snub, Israel’s Finance Minister Yair Lapid <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Israel-US-ties-have-reached-crisis-point-Lapid-says-379788">fretted</a>, “There is a crisis with the U.S. and we should treat it as a crisis.”</p>
<p>The question is, what are the actual implications of this crisis? The two sides may be trading insults because, politically, it’s about all they can do. Despite all the sniping, there hasn’t been much material change in the U.S.-Israel relationship. The Obama administration has continued the longstanding U.S. practice of running interference for Israel at the UN, threatening to veto&nbsp;<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/us-palestinians-israel-mitchell-idUSTRE78771O20110908">repeated Palestinian statehood bids</a> and, more recently, casting the sole vote against <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global/2014/jul/23/un-high-commissioner-navi-pillay-war-crimes-israel">launching an inquiry</a> into potential human rights violations during the Israeli incursion into Gaza.* Unlike Great Britain and Spain, the United States—Israel’s primary military backer—<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/in-deaths-of-civilians-in-gaza-us-weapons-sales-to-israel-come-under-scrutiny/2014/08/23/4f6565e7-da0f-4ecb-b005-5b2202463d1f_story.html">announced no plans</a> to review or suspend arms shipments to the country as a result of the war in Gaza. I wouldn’t expect this behavior to change significantly, whatever senior U.S. officials are saying behind closed doors and with the veil of anonymity.</p>
<p>It doesn’t matter that much to Netanyahu if American officials insult him in the media or won’t meet with his cabinet ministers as long as Israel still derives most of the benefits of its security partnership with the U.S. The tension with the Obama administration may even help the prime minister with his right-wing base, who were never huge fans of the president to begin with.</p>
<p>Naftali Bennett, the economics minister of the far-right Jewish Home party, is already playing up the victimhood, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/29/binyamin-netanyahu-a-chickenshit-say-us-officials-in-explosive-interview">writing on Facebook</a>, “If what was written [in <em>The Atlantic</em>] is true, then it appears the current administration plans to throw Israel under the bus. The prime minister is not a private person but the leader of the Jewish state and the whole Jewish world.” (The latter part of that statement was news to me, and I’m assuming many other members of “the whole Jewish world.”)</p>
<p>Netanyahu seems, for the most part, to have written off the White House, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sway-over-israel-on-gaza-at-a-low-1407979365">preferring to deal instead with Congress</a>, where his support is stronger. Unfortunately for him, Congress is increasingly <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.html"><em>not</em> where U.S. foreign policy</a> is made on issues ranging from the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program to the fight against ISIS. He may figure he can just run out the clock on the Obama administration until a Republican or a <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/hillary-clinton-israel-gaza-109210.html">more amenable Democrat like Hillary Clinton</a> gets into office.</p>
<p>This is a risky long-term strategy. U.S. support for Israel may be mostly secure in the short term, but there are signs of change. U.S. media coverage of the most recent war in Gaza was <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/21/twitter_is_changing_how_the_media_covers_the_israeli_palestinian_conflict.html">notably more critical</a> than during similar incidents in the past. <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2014/07/28/hamas-seen-as-more-to-blame-than-israel-for-current-violence/">Young Americans</a> are more critical of Israel than their parents, and <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/rand-paul-israel-109730.html">tomorrow’s Republican leaders</a> may not be quite as ironclad in their support of the Jewish state as today’s are. In the years to come, then, anonymous sniping could feel quaint—a reminder of when the two countries cared enough about their relationship not to insult each other openly.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Oct. 31, 2014:&nbsp;</strong>This post originally originally stated that the Obama administration had vetoed a Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations. The 2011 statehood bid <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/11/world/meast/un-palestinians/">actually stalled </a>after the U.S. declared its intention to veto.&nbsp;</em></p>Wed, 29 Oct 2014 19:26:19 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/_chickenshit_u_s_officials_tells_us_what_they_really_thinking_about_benjamin.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-29T19:26:19ZNews and PoliticsWhy the Obama Administration Is Calling Benjamin Netanyahu “Chickenshit” Behind Closed Doors236141029001israelJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/29/_chickenshit_u_s_officials_tells_us_what_they_really_thinking_about_benjamin.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy the Obama Administration Is Calling Benjamin Netanyahu “Chickenshit” Behind Closed DoorsWhy the Obama Administration Is Calling Benjamin Netanyahu “Chickenshit” Behind Closed DoorsPhoto by JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty ImagesSmile for the cameras.Do We Have to Sell Out Human Rights to Get a Nuclear Deal With Iran?&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/iran_executions_and_acid_attacks_do_we_have_to_sell_out_human_rights_in.html
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/10/26/reyhaneh_jabbari_hanged_iranian_woman_leaves_heartbreaking_last_message.html">The execution last Saturday</a> of Reyhaneh Jabbari, a 26-year-old Iranian woman who killed a man she said was trying to rape her, appears to be more of a trend than a deviation from the norm. According to the latest findings from the UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, executions have surged in the country while conditions for women have worsened. Shaheed says 852 people were executed in Iran between July 2013 and June 2014. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/middleeast/human-rights-in-iran-have-worsened-un-investigator-says.html?ref=world">The <em>New York Times</em>’ write-up of the report</a> notes that the “death penalty can be applied in Iran for adultery, recidivist alcohol use, drug possession and trafficking, as well as crimes in which a person ‘points a weapon at members of the public to kill, frighten and coerce them.’ ”</p>
<p>Iran has also seen a recent spate of attacks in which assailants fling acid in women’s faces they feel aren’t properly veiled. These attacks have prompted public outrage, and the government has vowed to crack down on them. But as the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iran-acid-attacks-20141027-story.html"><em>L.A. Times</em> reports,</a> some activists “believe that the government helped set the stage for attacks against those deemed immodest in some way by enacting a parliamentary measure providing protection to citizens who act on their own to help enforce the country’s strict social mores.” Iranian officials have also accused the international media of exaggerating the attacks and have <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-acid-attacks-media/26660203.html">muzzled domestic media coverage</a> of them. Meanwhile, <em>Washington Post </em>reporter Jason Rezaian is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/world/middleeast/yeganeh-salehi-release-iran-washington-post.html">still in jail</a> without any formal charges.</p>
<p>All of this is happening at the same time as ongoing talks over Iran’s nuclear program. While there’s reportedly <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/16/world/middleeast/substantial-work-said-to-remain-in-iran-nuclear-talks.html">still a lot of work</a> to be done for a comprehensive agreement to be reached before the Nov. 24 deadline, the talks have thus far exceeded expectations. At the very least, a military confrontation over Iran’s nukes, which seemed like a possibility just a few years ago, now seems very unlikely. The rise of ISIS has also <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/05/could_iran_be_part_of_america_s_new_coalition_of_the_willing.html">brought the U.S. and Iran together, albeit tentatively</a>, in the hope of stopping a common enemy.</p>
<p>All of this confirms what’s been <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/10/iran_s_moderate_government_not_as_moderate_for_iranians.html">evident for some time now</a>: President Hassan Rouhani, who took over from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last year, has lived up to his billing as a “moderate” in terms of Iran’s diplomatic relations with Western countries, but this hasn’t translated into more moderate domestic policies.</p>
<p>Early in his term, Rouhani <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-president-hassan-rouhani-delivers-optimistic-100-day-progress-report/2013/11/26/2905107a-56c0-11e3-bdbf-097ab2a3dc2b_story.html">tried to link</a> the two issues, arguing that political reforms and human rights measures would accompany better relations with the West. But so far, the opposite seems to be happening. Ahmed Shaheed, the UN’s special rapporteur, suggests that Rouhani has only “limited authority” over the country’s judiciary. The president was unsuccessful in his efforts to rescind Jabbari’s death sentence.</p>
<p>U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay, among others, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/us-iran-nuclear-un-idUSKBN0F812020140703">has said</a> that the human rights situation in Iran should be tied in some way to the nuclear talks. For what it’s worth, though, Iranian civil society activists seem to, by and large, <a href="http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2014/07/voices-iran/">support the negotiations</a>.</p>
<p>There aren’t any signs that the U.S. has backed off its criticism of Iran’s human rights record—the State Department was <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/25/execution-of-iranian-woman/17907371/">quick to condemn</a> Jabbari’s execution, for instance—but the UN’s Shaheed <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2014/10/27/un-investigator-banned-by-iran-not-fazed">expressed worry</a> this week that Iran “would use the nuclear issue as a ‘positive front’ while allowing human rights to become a ‘backwater.’ ”</p>
<p>It seems possible at this point that a major part of the legacy of the Obama and Rouhani administrations could be friendlier relations between Iran and the U.S. But it’s looking a lot less likely that this will result in Iran being a significantly freer society.</p>Tue, 28 Oct 2014 18:45:45 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/iran_executions_and_acid_attacks_do_we_have_to_sell_out_human_rights_in.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-28T18:45:45ZNews and PoliticsDo We Have to Sell Out Human Rights to Get a Nuclear Deal With Iran?&nbsp;236141028002iranhuman rightsdiplomacyJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/iran_executions_and_acid_attacks_do_we_have_to_sell_out_human_rights_in.htmlfalsefalsefalseDo We Have to Sell Out Human Rights to Get a Nuclear Deal With Iran?&nbsp;Do We Have to Sell Out Human Rights to Get a Nuclear Deal With Iran?&nbsp;Photo by ARYA JAFARI/AFP/Getty ImagesAn Iranian woman raises a placard during a protest against acid attacks on October 22, 2014 in Isfahan.&nbsp;Is the Tide Turning Against Ebola in Liberia?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/reports_indicate_that_ebola_infections_are_down_in_parts_of_liberia_is_the.html
<p>The politically heated debate over how to contain the Ebola virus in the United States is mostly a sideshow to the much more important question of how to contain the outbreak in West Africa. Without a cure, the only way to stop the disease is to break chains of infection. Thankfully, most countries where the disease has been introduced have had relatively few chains to break. That’s a big reason why Nigeria, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.html">despite some early missteps</a>, was eventually able to contain it and why the United States, despite its own public health screw-ups, will most likely be able to do so as well. But as long as thousands are still sick in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the number of chains will continue to grow and—in a globalized economy—more sick people will continue to travel to more countries.</p>
<p>This is one big reason why quarantine measures that discourage health workers from traveling to West Africa are <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/10/new_york_and_new_jersey_s_mandatory_ebola_quarantine_is_about_politics_not.html">so short-sighted</a>. The only way to keep the U.S.—and every other country, for that matter—safe from Ebola, is to stop it at its source. And that, as Paul Farmer <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/paul_farmer_says_up_to_ninety_percent_of_those_infected_should_survive_ebola.html">puts it</a>, will require a lot more “staff, stuff, space, and systems.”</p>
<p>Recently, though, there have been some cautiously optimistic reports that the tide may be turning in one of Ebola’s epicenters. <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/could-liberia-ebola-cases-be-on-the-decline/2489305.html">Local reports suggest</a> that there have been fewer new infections and fewer deaths from Ebola in Liberia than in August and September.</p>
<p>Public health researcher Helen Epstein <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/oct/27/hidden-truth-about-ebola/">writes for the <em>New York Review of Books</em></a>:</p>
<blockquote>
In August, the streets of Monrovia were strewn with bodies and emergency Ebola clinics were turning away patients. Today, nearly half of the beds in those treatment units are empty. I’ve been here a week and have yet to see a single body in the street. Funeral directors say business is off by half.
</blockquote>
<p>Northern Lofa County, which borders Sierra Leone and was one of the hardest-hit areas, has seen <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022">three consecutive weeks</a> of declines in the number of cases observed, according to the WHO.</p>
<p>As Jina Moore, reporting from Liberia for <em>Buzzfeed</em>, <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/ebola-cases-in-liberia-are-dropping">notes</a>, the promising news is tempered somewhat by the fact that there aren’t very good numbers available on how many people had Ebola in Liberia to begin with, making it difficult to get more than an anecdotal sense of whether the disease is on the decline.</p>
<p>It’s also possible that some patients are being hidden from healthcare workers by their families. But Epstein points out some evidence that Liberians are better informed about the dangers of the disease than they were in the early days of the outbreak. “In Monrovia, health workers travel from house to house in the slums checking on people who had contact with those who are already sick or have died,” she writes. “In July, nearly half of those contacts went on to succumb to the disease themselves. Today, fewer than 20 percent of them do.”</p>
<p>All the same, we’re far from out of the woods in the fight against the disease that has already killed in the neighborhood of 5,000 people around the world. There have been no similar reports of drops in the other countries affected by Ebola. In fact, the number of cases has <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ebola-cases-rise-sharply-western-sierra-leone-26339140">risen sharply</a> in Western Sierra Leone this month. The disease also may have spread to yet another country—82 people in Mali who came in contact with a toddler who died of Ebola last week are <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/us-health-ebola-who-mali-idUSKBN0IH0SW20141028">currently being monitored</a> for signs of the disease. The collateral damage from the outbreak—including the impact on the economies and political institutions of some of the world’s most fragile states and the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29756066">setback in the fight against</a> diseases like malaria—will continue to mount.</p>
<p>As Epstein writes, it “seems that this simple set of interventions, which has worked in the past to contain 25 previous known Ebola outbreaks in Africa since 1976, is belatedly working [in Liberia] too.” Let’s hope she’s right. Let’s also hope that the political conversation in developed countries around this disease shifts toward measures that could actually do something to stop it.</p>
<p> <a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html"><em>Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</em></a></p>Tue, 28 Oct 2014 15:24:17 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/reports_indicate_that_ebola_infections_are_down_in_parts_of_liberia_is_the.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-28T15:24:17ZNews and PoliticsFinally, Some Good News About Ebola in West Africa: Infections May Be Dropping in Liberia236141028001ebolaliberiaafricaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/28/reports_indicate_that_ebola_infections_are_down_in_parts_of_liberia_is_the.htmlfalsefalsefalseFinally, Some Good News About Ebola in West Africa: Infections May Be Dropping in LiberiaFinally, Some Good News About Ebola in West Africa: Infections May Be Dropping in LiberiaPhoto by ZOOM DOSSO/AFP/Getty ImagesLiberian health workers at the Medecins Sans Frontieres Ebola treatment center in Monrovia on October 18, 2014.China May Be Souring on the Death Penalty While the Rest of the World Embraces Ithttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/china_considers_death_penalty_cutbacks_the_people_s_republic_may_be_souring.html
<p>Amnesty International <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/04/gang_rapists_sentenced_to_death_in_india_is_capital_punishment_starting.html">doesn’t even count China</a> in its annual report on the death penalty, as the number of executions the country carries out each year—thought to be in the thousands—is officially a state secret.</p>
<p>But as <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/10/27/china-death-penalty.html">Al Jazeera reports</a>, there’s some evidence that the country’s gallows aren’t as busy as they used to be:</p>
<blockquote>
<a href="http://duihua.org/wp/?page_id=9270">The Dui Hua Foundation has reviewed the decisions</a>&nbsp;made by the Supreme People’s Court (SPC) and found the number of executions has fallen in recent years, citing the 2007 return of “the power of final review” to the court.
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
“Since then, the number of executions nationwide may have dropped by more than a third with declines of nearly 50 percent in some locales,” the group said, citing a report in the
<em>Southern Weekly</em>, a mainland magazine based in the southern industrial city of Guangzhou.
</blockquote>
<p>This is all relative, of course. The foundation believes that 2,400 people were executed in China in 2013, more than twice the number in the rest of the world combined. But official attitudes about the practice may be slowly shifting with the ruling Communist party considering dropping nine crimes, including counterfeiting and prostitution, from the list of capital offenses.</p>
<p>At the very least, China appears to have shifted from the days of <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-06-14-death-van_x.htm">mobile death vans</a> roaming the countryside. In one grisly indicator, China’s lower number of executions <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/02/us-china-organs-idUSBRE9A011N20131102">may be having an impact</a> on the international market for harvested organs. It’s also interesting that this is happening at the same time as a corruption crackdown so widespread and draconian it seems to be <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/10/what_s_driving_chinese_officials_to_suicide.html">driving many officials to suicide</a>.</p>
<p>China’s potential death penalty rethink also comes at a time when the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/03/daily-chart-19?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/gravepunishment">total number of executions</a> around the world is on the rise, and a number of countries that had appeared to be moving away from the practice—including India, Japan, Nigeria, and Indonesia—seem to <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/03/daily-chart-19?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/gravepunishment">be going back to it</a>.</p>
<p>South Korean prosecutors announced today that they would <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/27/world/asia/south-korea-sewol-ferry-disaster/index.html">seek the death penalty</a> for Lee Joon-seok, the ferry captain blamed for the deaths of nearly 300 people when his ship capsized in April. South Korea hasn’t executed anyone since 1997, but evidently the public outrage surrounding this case is pushing the courts toward drastic measures.</p>Mon, 27 Oct 2014 19:02:48 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/china_considers_death_penalty_cutbacks_the_people_s_republic_may_be_souring.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-27T19:02:48ZNews and PoliticsChina May Be Souring on the Death Penalty While the Rest of the World Embraces It236141027002death penaltychinaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/china_considers_death_penalty_cutbacks_the_people_s_republic_may_be_souring.htmlfalsefalsefalseChina May Be Souring on the Death Penalty While the Rest of the World Embraces ItChina May Be Souring on the Death Penalty While the Rest of the World Embraces ItPhoto by STR/AFP/Getty ImagesChinese police parade a group of defendants, most of whom will face the death penalty if convicted, at a public rally in Xian on Nov. 15, 2004.ISIS Is a Part-Time Terrorist Grouphttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/terrorists_or_rebels_what_do_groups_like_isis_and_al_qaida_actually_spend.html
<p>Even if it’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/09/11/obama_s_awkward_case_for_war_the_president_downplays_danger_isis_poses_to.html">not the actual reason</a> why the U.S. and its allies have launched a campaign of airstrikes against ISIS, most Americans support the operation due to fear that the group could carry out terrorist attacks here at home. (Rightly or wrongly, those fears will only increase after<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.html"> last week’s events</a> in Canada.) Public awareness of ISIS also grew here thanks to the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/20/james_foley_killing_the_strangely_modern_production_values_of_isis_propaganda.html">videotaped beheadings</a> of American journalists—indisputably acts of terrorism.</p>
<p>At the same time, most of what ISIS does is not traditionally considered terrorism. (Before you skip straight to the comments, this is a discussion of tactics, not morality. Let’s stipulate that ISIS is an abominable organization.) Most of the violence it commits is in the context of fights for territory with rival national militaries and militia groups, though civilians are often<a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/iraq/141016/think-the-islamic-state-bad-check-out-the-good-guys"> targeted by both sides</a>. Its primary goal is to expand and administer its territory. Purely terrorist groups don’t run <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/the-isis-guide-to-building-an-islamic-state/372769/">consumer protection bureaus</a>.</p>
<p>This distinction is discussed in a <a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/374/745">recent article</a> in the journal <em>Perspectives on Terrorism</em>. That article categorizes ISIS, along with Hezbollah and Hamas, as organizations classified as terrorist groups by the United States and its allies but that spend most of their time and resources on activities other than terrorism. The authors, Assaf Moghadam, a counterterrorism researcher at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel (whose work I’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/11/how_al_qaida_gets_its_ideas_bin_laden_s_secret_weapon_was_that_he_listened.html">previously written about here</a>), Ronit Berger, a Ph.D. candidate at Syracuse University, and Polina Blieakova, an M.A. student at IDC, go further, arguing that most groups we consider to be terrorist organizations only spend part of their time on terrorism.</p>
<p>Even al-Qaida, which undoubtedly made its reputation with acts of international terrorism, spends most of its time as a militia group fighting in various civil conflicts around the world. It “conducts terrorism on the side—almost certainly its least-resourced component,” as the counterterrorism researcher J.M. Berger <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/02/04/war_on_error_al_qaeda_terrorism">puts it</a>.</p>
<p>The authors looked at the data on terrorist attacks between 2002 and 2012 in the <a href="http://www.start.umd.edu/news">START database</a> at the University of Maryland, the most comprehensive listing of terrorist activity around the world. The 119 active groups in the Maryland data set target civilians 32.33 percent of the time—the rest are a combination of military, government, and police targets.</p>
<p>Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula both targeted the military more than any other target. Interestingly, the most active non-Islamist movements—including Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army and the Fatah-linked Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade—target civilians more often than the Islamists.</p>
<p>The only group in the database that exclusively attacked civilians was Angola’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNITA">UNITA</a>, which attacked six civilian targets during the period. For what it’s worth, UNITA was once a major recipient of U.S. military aid during the Cold War and today is a major political party.</p>
<p>Obviously, many attacks on government targets would still be considered acts of terrorism by most people. But this data, combined with the fact that the vast majority of acts of “terrorism” <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/12/19/more_than_half_of_the_world_s_terrorist_attacks_happen_in_just_three_countries.html">take place in the context of civil wars and insurgencies</a>, makes it clear that the distinction between terrorists and rebels or guerilla fighters is a blurry one. Many of the enemies in the U.S.-led war on terror may be worthy targets, but they’re only part-time terrorists.</p>
<p>The authors argue that “by conceiving of its opponents as insurgent groups [rather than simply as terrorists], governments can also widen the scope of their policy efforts. Besides aiming at the tactical defeat of the adversary using military means, the insurgency framework highlights the necessity of simultaneously focusing on reestablishing governmental credibility and gaining popular support in problematic areas. In this regard, addressing the social grievances upon which the insurgents' political agenda is based should move to the top of the policy agenda.”</p>
<p>They argue that governments use the label terrorism less for descriptive specificity than for “emotional satisfaction.” They write: “Terrorism evokes repugnance and fear, thereby stoking an unequivocal rejection of terrorism’s means and agents alike. Populations have been trained to reject compromise with terrorists, and want to believe that terrorists are unique in their ‘evilness,’ therefore deserving a category of their own.”</p>
<p>For this reason, they argue, governments fighting these groups should continue to use the T-word in public statements to galvanize public opinion, even while understanding internally that it’s not the most accurate framing.</p>
<p>I’m not sure I’d go that far. The fear of terrorism may sometimes be used by governments to build support for reasonable public policy goals. But just as often, if not more often, it leads to restrictions of civil liberties and some <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.html">seriously dumb ideas</a> about, say, terrorists attacking the United States with the Ebola virus.</p>Mon, 27 Oct 2014 17:32:11 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/terrorists_or_rebels_what_do_groups_like_isis_and_al_qaida_actually_spend.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-27T17:32:11ZNews and PoliticsISIS Is a Part-Time Terrorist Group. Does That Mean We Should Call Them Insurgents? Rebels?236141027001terrorismisissyriairaqal-qaidaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/27/terrorists_or_rebels_what_do_groups_like_isis_and_al_qaida_actually_spend.htmlfalsefalsefalseISIS Is a Part-Time Terrorist Group. Does That Mean We Should Call Them Insurgents? Rebels?ISIS Is a Part-Time Terrorist Group. Does That Mean We Should Call Them Insurgents? Rebels?Photo by Gokhan Sahin/Getty ImagesSmoke rises after a reported suicide car bomb attack by ISIS in Kobani, Syria of Oct. 20, 2014.Does ISIS Have a Cash Flow Problem?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/24/where_does_isis_get_its_money_and_how_much_does_it_have_left.html
<p>David Cohen, the top counterterrorism official at the U.S. Treasury Department, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/world/middleeast/us-strikes-cut-into-isis-oil-revenues-treasury-official-says.html">argues</a> that the U.S. military campaign against ISIS is beginning to cut into the group’s revenues.</p>
<p>Discussions of how the group funds itself necessarily rely on speculation and guesswork, but researchers are starting to get a better idea about the terror group’s finances. Eckart Woertz, a fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, provides a useful summary of what’s known about the Islamic State’s <a href="http://www.cidob.org/es/publicaciones/notes_internacionals/n1_98/how_long_will_isis_last_economically">financial lifelines</a>. The groups revenues are likely somewhere between $1 million to $5 million per day. A U.S. intelligence official <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/iraq-isis-arrest-jihadists-wealth-power">told the <em>Guardian </em>earlier</a> this year that the groups assets swelled from around $875 million to over $2 billion after the fall of Mosul.</p>
<p>The biggest chunk of that comes from oil. ISIS is believed to control roughly six out of Syria’s 10 oil fields as well as several in Iraq. The group relies on smuggling networks, some of which date back to the days of the U.N. embargo against Saddam Hussein in the 1990s, to get the oil out of the country. A recent <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/34e874ac-3dad-11e4-b782-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3FfGlccp6"><em>Financial Times </em>article</a> suggested that the black market oil is often refined at plants in Iraqi Kurdistan, meaning that ISIS is shipping its oil out through enemy territory.</p>
<p>Another chunk comes from looting and pillaging newly conquered areas—though the extent of this has <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0378d4f4-0c28-11e4-9080-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3H5sqraqf">sometimes been exaggerated</a>—and from extracting funds from people in the territories ISIS controls in the form of taxes, extortion, and <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2014/10/estate-terrorists-property.html">real estate</a>. (Fleeing refugees leave behind property that can be rented out.) Then, of course, there are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/21/isis_demanded_ransom_for_james_foley_why_was_the_u_s_willing_to_make_a_deal.html">ransom payments from the governments</a> willing to pay for the return of their hostages.</p>
<p>ISIS has also received funding from wealthy donors, many in Gulf countries, particularly early in its rise, though according to Woertz this never brought in as money as was commonly believed.</p>
<p>Some of these revenue streams may not be sustainable. ISIS continues to <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/militants-advance-despite-airstrikes-1413157551">make territorial gains</a>, but more slowly and at a much higher cost than it did a few months ago when it swept nearly unopposed across swathes of Iraq. Nowhere is this more evident than in the closely fought and bloody battle in Kobane, Syria, whose defenders have taken to referring to it as “<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/24/kobane-diary-four-days-inside-city-keeping-incredible-and-unprecedented-resistance-277509.html">Stalingrad</a>.”</p>
<p>ISIS can still exploit those living in areas under its control, but are likely wary of the lessons of their predecessor organization, al-Qaida in Iraq, which faced a popular uprising in the middle of the last decade when locals grew fed up with its rule.</p>
<p>ISIS still holds <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/isiss-forgotten-hostages-islamic-state-still-holds-thousands-272353">thousands of hostages</a>, but the grisly fate of James Foley, Steven Sotloff, and Alan Henning may result in fewer citizens of Western countries—whose governments will pay higher ransoms—heading to the region.</p>
<p>There’s also evidence that some of ISIS’s former backers in the Gulf <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/1013/Rise-of-IS-elicits-soul-searching-in-Arab-Gulf-a-source-of-funds-and-fighters">are starting to reconsider</a> as the group expands.</p>
<p>This makes ISIS’s oil all the more critical. Given that it <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/isis-hit-hard-iraq-offensive-year/story?id=26420221">may be up to a year before the</a> Iraqi military is ready to launch a major counterattack against ISIS and the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/01/syria_airstrikes_bashar_al_assad_is_the_u_s_losing_the_country_s_moderate.html">lack of coordination</a> between Syria’s “moderate” rebels and their international backers, disrupting ISIS’s oil money may be the most productive thing the U.S. and its allies can do to halt the group.</p>
<p>Airstrikes, targeted sanctions, and crackdowns on smuggling routes are part of this effort. It’s also helpful that Washington’s Saudi allies seem <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/oil-glut-keeps-prices-depressed-1412157930">willing to tolerate</a> low oil prices. All of this could change if ISIS is able to capture more oil fields in Iraq, but many of these are in Kurdish territories in the North and Shiite areas in the South—not exactly a cakewalk.</p>
<p>Woertz notes that ISIS’s revenues, even if reduced from their current levels, are “a&nbsp;lot for a terror group, but not for someone who intends to run a state and rule over an extended territory.” <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/hayesbrown/us-official-theres-no-way-isis-can-pay-its-bills">As Hayes Brown points out</a>, if you classify ISIS as the “state” it claims to be, its estimated $875 million in assets put it put it “roughly in the range&nbsp;of the budgets of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Afghanistan, two countries not known for their massive expenditures.”</p>
<p>In other words, if ISIS plans to keep acting like a state, it may develop a pretty serious cash flow problem in the near future. If it switches tactics and acts more like a traditional terrorist network, more concerned with inflicting damage on enemies than building local institutions, it may be able to live off its nest egg for a while.</p>Fri, 24 Oct 2014 21:52:59 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/24/where_does_isis_get_its_money_and_how_much_does_it_have_left.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-24T21:52:59ZNews and PoliticsWhere Does ISIS Get Its Money? And How Much Does it Have Left?236141024001isisterrorismeconomicsJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/24/where_does_isis_get_its_money_and_how_much_does_it_have_left.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhere Does ISIS Get Its Money? And How Much Does it Have Left?Where Does ISIS Get Its Money? And How Much Does it Have Left?Is This the ISIS Backlash We've Been Waiting For?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.html
<p>We’re quickly learning more about Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, the suspected killer of a soldier in Ottawa on Wednesday, who was himself shot dead after a rampage through the Canadian National War Memorial and Parliament.</p>
<p>Zehaf-Bibeau is <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/suspected-killer-in-ottawa-shootings-had-a-disturbing-side/article21252419/">described by the <em>Globe and Mail</em></a> as a “laborer and small-time criminal—a man who had had a religious awakening and seemed to have become mentally unstable.” His father, a “Quebec businessman … appears to have fought in 2011 in Libya.”</p>
<p>Zehaf-Bibeau’s passport had reportedly been <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/22/world/americas/canada-ottawa-shooting/index.html">confiscated by authorities</a> when they learned he had planned to travel somewhere overseas to fight. He told friends that he just wanted to go to Libya, where he had lived several years earlier, to study Islam and Arabic. He also, apparently, “knew Hasibullah Yusufzai, a Vancouver-area resident who was charged in July by the [Royal Canadian Mounted Police] with travelling to Syria with the intent of joining a deadly terrorist group.”</p>
<p>The attack came just two days after Martin Couture-Rouleau <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/man-who-killed-soldier-car-was-radical-muslim-authorities-say-n230526">drove his car</a> into two Canadian soldiers in a Quebec parking lot, killing one. According to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Rouleau was a recent convert to Islam and ISIS sympathizer who had his passport revoked for similar reasons.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Stephen Harper <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29735163">has described</a> the Ottawa shooting as an act of terrorism and called the Quebec incident “ISIL-inspired,” using an alternate acronym for ISIS. It’s not clear whether there was any direct connection between the Zehaf-Bibeau and Couture-Rouleau incidents.</p>
<p>The Canadian parliament voted <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/08/canada-parliament-votes-join-anti-isis-strikes-iraq">earlier this month</a> to join in the U.S.-led airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. ISIS has <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09/21/isis-urges-jihadists-to-attack-canadians-you-will-not-feel-secure-in-your-bedrooms/">directly called for attacks</a> on Canadian citizens, along with those of other countries participating in the coalition.</p>
<p>Even if the attacks were ISIS-inspired, that probably doesn’t mean ISIS commanders in Syria or Iraq actually ordered them. ISIS has specifically <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/isis-threatens-west/">called for “lone-wolf”</a> attacks against Western countries, and it seems entirely possible that Zehaf-Bibeau and Couture-Rouleau , both <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/22/how-big-is-the-canadian-terrorists-network.html">reportedly active</a> in jihadist web forums, could have hatched these not-particularly-sophisticated plots on their own.</p>
<p>This certainly isn’t cause for comfort, though. Self-starting terrorists are a lot more difficult to track than those with direct ties to international networks. The incidents will also raise questions about the seriousness of Canada’s radicalization problem.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/isis-threat-to-canada-not-imminent-but-real-csis-director-warns-1.2792121">A recent report from the the Canadian Security Intelligence Services</a>, as described by CBC News, found “130 Canadians who had travelled abroad to join in alleged terrorist activities and 80 individuals ‘who have returned to Canada after travel abroad for a variety of suspected terrorism-related purposes.’” The Canadian government estimates that <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09/20/canadian-government-revoking-passports-of-citizens-trying-to-join-extremist-groups/">about 30 of the country’s citizens</a> are believed to be fighting with extremist groups in Syria, including ISIS. According to the RCMP, Rouleau was one of 90 individuals with suspected radical ties under government monitoring. Again, we don’t yet know for sure whether Zehaf-Bibeau had any links to Syria or ISIS.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/fear-canada-not-mexico-111919.html#.VEknMIvF9lw"><em>Politico Magazine </em>article</a> written last week, before either of these incidents, noted that U.S. politicians have <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/25/rick_perry_says_isis_could_sneak_into_the_u_s_from_mexico_the_el_qaida_meme.html">been raising the alarm</a> about terrorists entering the U.S. from Mexico despite little to no evidence of recent jihadist activity in that country. Meanwhile, politicians say little if anything about Canada, which does have such activity and <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/trail/etc/canada.html">has actually been the origin</a> of attempted attacks on U.S. soil. Counterterrorism officials, though, do seem to pay attention to our northern neighbor: Canadian <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/10/interview_john_baird">officials have complained for years</a> about the “thickening” of the U.S.-Canadian border due to security concerns and I’d imagine it’s only going to get thicker now.</p>
<p>While preventing attacks in Western countries was part of the justification for the international campaign against ISIS, <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/21/did_the_united_states_make_itself_a_target_by_bombing_isis.html">it’s long been clear</a> that the airstrikes would make such an attack more likely. Before the U.S., Canada, and their allies got involved, ISIS was mainly concerned with expanding its territory in Iraq and the Levant. Now, it’s behaving more like it’s erstwhile ally, al-Qaida.</p>
<p>So far, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/world/americas/in-the-west-a-growing-list-of-attacks-linked-to-extremism.html?contentCollection=world&amp;action=click&amp;module=NextInCollection&amp;region=Footer&amp;pgtype=article">ISIS-related violence</a> outside the Middle East has been rare. Australia has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/27/world/asia/isis-australia-mohammad-ali-baryalei.html">seen two incidents</a>. In September, an Afghan-Australian ISIS lieutenant in Syria called a friend in Sydney asking him to carry out a beheading on camera—the call was intercepted and the Australian friend arrested. Two days later, a “known terror suspect” who had been seen carrying an ISIS flag in public stabbed two counterterrorism officers in Melbourne before he was shot and killed. There was also Mehdi Nemmouche, the Frenchman who had spent time fighting with ISIS in Syria, who <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27654505">shot three people dead</a> at the Jewish Museum in Brussels back in May, well before the airstrikes against the Islamic State began.</p>
<p>Without minimizing the seriousness of these incidents or downplaying the tragedy of the lives lost, it’s fair to say that homegrown terrorists haven’t yet been able to mount the kind of catastrophic attacks we’ve feared. It remains to be seen whether this is all they are capable of, whether something much worse is in store.</p>Thu, 23 Oct 2014 17:51:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-23T17:51:00ZNews and PoliticsAre This Week's Attacks in Canada a Sign that ISIS Is on the Rise in the West?236141023001ottawa attackterrorismisiscanadaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/23/ottawa_shooting_is_this_the_isis_backlash_we_ve_been_waiting_for.htmlfalsefalsefalseAre This Week's Attacks in Canada a Sign that ISIS Is on the Rise in the West?Are This Week's Attacks in Canada a Sign that ISIS Is on the Rise in the West?Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty ImagesFlowers are left in memorial for Cpl. Nathan Cirillo of the Canadian Army Reserves on October 23, 2014 in Ottawa, Canada.&nbsp;The Tragedies That Have Shaped Canada's Gun Politicshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/ottawa_shooting_the_mass_shooting_incidents_that_have_shaped_canada_s_gun.html
<p>As noted in much of the coverage of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-canada-attacks-shooting-idUSKCN0IB1PY20141022">today’s shooting</a> at the Canadian Parliament in Ottawa, which left one military officer dead, such incidents are relatively rare in Canada compared to the United States. But “active shooter” events aren’t entirely unheard of there, and often provoke <a href="http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/25/no_its_not_just_america">similar contentious political debates</a> to those here in the U.S.</p>
<p>The worst such incident in the country’s history was the 1989 <a href="http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/24-years-later-montrealers-remember-victims-of-ecole-polytechnique-massacre-1.1577940">Ecole Polytechnique massacre</a>, in which a 25-year-old man who had expressed a hatred of feminists and women working in non-traditional jobs entered an engineering school in Montreal with a legally purchased semi-automatic rifle and killed 14 women. Ten women and four men were also injured. The anniversary of the event, Dec. 6, is today commemorated as Canada’s National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women.</p>
<p>The event also prompted the crafting of tighter gun laws, including a national registry for long guns that was established in 1995. Perennially unpopular with hunters and gun rights activists, the registry <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/15/conservatives-and-enthusiasts-cheer-the-end-of-the-long-gun-registry/">was scrapped</a> by Stephen Harper’s Conservative government in 2012.</p>
<p>Canada’s gun laws are still strict compared with America’s—gun owners must <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2014/1022/Ottawa-parliament-shooting-What-are-Canada-s-gun-laws">get a license</a> from the federal government which requires a gun safety course, and there are more stringent restrictions for more powerful weapons—but by international standards the country is relatively gun-friendly.</p>
<p>Canada has the <a href="http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/A-Yearbook/2007/en/Small-Arms-Survey-2007-Chapter-02-annexe-4-EN.pdf">13<sup>th</sup>-largest civilian firearms arsenal</a> in the world according to the 2007 Small Arms Survey, with 30.8 firearms per 100 people. (The U.S. is first with 88.8 per 100.) It suffers about 0.51 firearm homicides per 100,000 people compared to 2.97 in the United States. While safe by the standards of the U.S. or Latin America, Canada does have significantly more gun violence than countries like Germany, France, and Australia.</p>
<p>As in the United States, large headline-grabbing incidents tend to galvanize public interest in gun politics. A <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5350042.stm">2006 shooting</a> at a junior college in Montreal prompted an <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/dawson-shooting-victim-launches-national-gun-control-campaign-1.599519">ultimately unsuccessful</a> campaign to get Harper to keep the gun registry. A <a href="http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/murder-charges-laid-in-toronto-bbq-mass-shooting-1.1029580">mass shooting</a> at a Toronto barbecue in 2012 that killed two people and injured 23 others led Harper to call for <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/07/25/toronto-shootings-underscore-why-tough-gun-sentences-are-essential-stephen-harper-after-meeting-with-mayor/">tougher sentences</a> for gun crimes, as well as some <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rob-ford-s-ex-con-banishment-plan-won-t-fly-says-minister-1.1294351">characteristically incoherent</a> calls for new laws from Mayor Rob Ford.</p>
<p>Canada’s most recent major gun tragedy occurred in June when 24-year-old Justin Bourque, armed with a semi-automatic rifle, shotgun, and crossbow, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/moncton-shootings-3-rcmp-officers-dead-2-wounded-1.2665359">shot five Royal Canadian Mounted Police officers</a> in Moncton, New Brunswick, killing three. The <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/moncton-shooting-justin-bourque-was-armed-with-rifle-shotgun-1.2666548">RCMP said</a> that Bourque was better armed than many of the Mounties called to the scene, though Canada’s National Firearms Association said the incident was proof that Canada’s gun rules aren’t effective at stopping homicides and should be scrapped.</p>
<p>Today’s incident, involving a shooter armed with a <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-shooting-cpl-nathan-cirillo-dies-of-wounds-gunman-also-shot-dead-1.2808710">double-barreled shotgun</a>, may prompt another round of soul searching. Ironically, what the Conservative government calls a “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/07/23/common-sense-firearms-licensing-act_n_5614345.html">common sense</a>” package of gun control reforms that would “ease restrictions on transporting firearms, make firearms-safety courses mandatory for first-time gun owners and prevent people convicted of spousal assault from legally owning guns,” was <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/politics/inside-politics-blog/2014/10/malala-yousafzai-to-join-pm-for-qa-at-toronto-high-school.html">on the docket</a> to be debated in the House of Commons today, before the shooting started.</p>Wed, 22 Oct 2014 22:30:15 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/ottawa_shooting_the_mass_shooting_incidents_that_have_shaped_canada_s_gun.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-22T22:30:15ZNews and PoliticsThe Tragedies That Have Shaped Canada's Gun Politics236141022003ottawa shootingcanada gunsJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/ottawa_shooting_the_mass_shooting_incidents_that_have_shaped_canada_s_gun.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe Tragedies That Have Shaped Canada's Gun PoliticsThe Tragedies That Have Shaped Canada's Gun PoliticsPhoto by Mike Carroccetto/Getty ImagesPolice tape blocks Wellington St. at Sussex near the National War Memorial where a soldier was shot earlier in the day, just blocks away from Parliament Hill, on October 22, 2014 in Ottawa, Canada.&nbsp;Paul Farmer Says Up to Ninety Percent of Those Infected Should Survive Ebola. Is He Right?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/paul_farmer_says_up_to_ninety_percent_of_those_infected_should_survive_ebola.html
<p>There are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/west_africans_aren_t_the_only_ones_who_are_ignorant_about_ebola.html">many misperceptions</a> about the Ebola virus, but the one thing everyone typically agrees on is that its mortality rate is extremely high—between 50 to 90 percent. If you get Ebola, there’s a very good chance you will die.</p>
<p>But in a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/west_africans_aren_t_the_only_ones_who_are_ignorant_about_ebola.html">provocative essay</a> for the <em>London Review of Books</em>, renowned anthropologist and physician Paul Farmer, who has recently returned from Liberia, argues that this is not—or rather, shouldn’t necessarily be—the case:</p>
<blockquote>
An Ebola diagnosis need not be a death sentence. Here’s my assertion as an infectious disease specialist: If patients are promptly diagnosed and receive aggressive supportive care—including fluid resuscitation, electrolyte replacement and blood products—the great majority, as many as 90 percent, should survive.
</blockquote>
<p>The survival rate for the disease in the U.S. is likely to be close to that. Including Thomas Eric Duncan and the two nurses infected by him, as well as those who were intentionally brought back to the U.S. for treatment, there have been <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-health-ebola-usa-factbox-idUSKCN0IA1XM20141021">eight Ebola patients</a> in the U.S. so far. Only Duncan has died. With cameraman Ashoka Mukpo now <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/21/health/ebola-outbreak/index.html">declared Ebola-free</a>, five of them have recovered. Nurses Nina Pham and Amber Vinson are both reportedly improving. Assuming they do recover, that’s an 87.5 percent survival rate, albeit with an incredibly small sample size.</p>
<p>This doesn’t quite prove Farmer’s point. Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol, the two missionaries who were the first Americans to recover from the disease, were treated not just with conventional means but <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/04/health/experimental-ebola-serum/">with an experimental drug</a> that’s not yet available in West Africa, though the extent to which this aided their recovery more than rehydration <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/what-cured-ebola-patients-kent-brantly-nancy-writebol-n186131">isn’t yet clear</a>. (Not everyone <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/12/priest-ebola-dies/13939545/">treated with ZMapp has lived</a>.) Other patients were treated with a serum made from the blood of recovered patients, which should <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29707393">hopefully be widely available</a> in a few weeks.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it’s pretty clear that experimental drugs don’t account for the difference in mortality between the U.S. and the three countries where the disease is concentrated, where it <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/10/ebola-outbreak-killing-70-percent-victims-20141014132345720164.html">may soon be as high as 70 percent</a>. It’s a question of resources: “staff, stuff, space and systems,” as Farmer, who is best known for his pioneering public health work in Haiti, puts it. Whether or not Ebola is a death sentence still depends largely on where you’re treated for it.&nbsp;</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html">Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</a></em></strong></p>Wed, 22 Oct 2014 18:05:46 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/paul_farmer_says_up_to_ninety_percent_of_those_infected_should_survive_ebola.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-22T18:05:46ZNews and PoliticsPaul Farmer Says Up to Ninety Percent of Those Infected Should Survive Ebola. Is He Right?236141022002ebolaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/paul_farmer_says_up_to_ninety_percent_of_those_infected_should_survive_ebola.htmlfalsefalsefalsePaul Farmer Says Up to Ninety Percent of Those Infected Should Survive Ebola. Is He Right?Paul Farmer Says Up to Ninety Percent of Those Infected Should Survive Ebola. Is He Right?Photo by Jessica McGowan/Getty ImagesKent Brantly: Ebola survivorWhy Wasn't the WHO Ready for Ebola?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/who_ebola_response_the_politics_and_economics_of_why_the_organization_was.html
<p>The World Health Organization’s emergency committee is now meeting for the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29721853">third time</a> to discuss the Ebola crisis amid widespread criticism over what has been seen as a sluggish response to the virus.</p>
<p>Mariano Lugli, a M&eacute;decins Sans Fronti&egrave;res deputy director who was on the ground in Guinea setting up clinics during the early days of the outbreak, recently <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/06/who-poor-response-ebola_n_5933866.html">told Reuters</a> that he saw no signs that the U.N. agency was playing a coordinating role as Ebola spread. “In all the meetings I attended, even in [Guinea capital] Conakry, I never saw a representative of the WHO,” he said. “The coordination role that WHO should be playing, we just didn’t see it. I didn’t see it the first three weeks and we didn't see it afterwards.”</p>
<p>The agency’s officials, including its director-general, Margaret Chan, have publicly defended the organization’s response. But an internal WHO review, <a href="http://time.com/3516777/u-n-we-botched-response-to-the-ebola-outbreak/">obtained last week by the AP</a>, confirmed what many critics have been arguing: “Nearly everyone involved in the outbreak response failed to see some fairly plain writing on the wall,”&nbsp;the report said. Via the BBC, those <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29668603">problems included</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
A failure of WHO experts in the field to send reports to WHO headquarters in Geneva
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Bureaucratic hurdles preventing $500,000 reaching the response effort in Guinea
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Doctors unable to gain access because visas had not been obtained
</blockquote>
<p>In April, Ebola was already present in three countries and was spreading in major cities, not just in isolated rural areas where previous outbreaks had struck. The MSF and other groups were also warning that the disease was starting to spin out of control. The WHO, meanwhile, <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/who-downplays-ebola-outbreak-1.1669810#.VEbU34vF9lw">downplayed these concerns</a>, calling the outbreak “relatively small still.”</p>
<p>What was it that left the world’s leading public health body so unprepared for the most serious public health crisis in a generation? According to Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for public health at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/0140250913/?tag=slatmaga-20">The Coming Plague</a></em>, the economic and political factors that led to the botched response have been building for years.</p>
<p>The WHO is governed by the 194-nation World Health Assembly, in which, as Garrett put it, “Vanuatu and China” have equal voting power. Throughout the early 2000s, the member states consistently failed to vote to raise their own membership dues, “so in 2013 they were paying the same dues based on per capita GDP that they were in the 1980s. The core budget, adjusted for inflation, was going steadily downhill.”</p>
<p>This meant that donations from rich countries and private entities like the Gates Foundation had to fill the gap. But these donors can earmark their donations for specific issues—say, HIV/AIDS or smoking prevention. As former WHO assistant director-general Jack Chow <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/08/is_the_who_becoming_irrelevant">put it in 2010</a>, this means the budget is “increasingly divvied up before it ever reaches the WHO.” Margaret Chan herself acknowledged this problem in a recent interview, saying, “My budget [is] highly earmarked, so it is driven by what I call donor interests. When there’s an event, we have money. Then after that, the money stops coming in, then all the staff you recruited to do the response, you have to terminate their contracts.”</p>
<p>This cash flow problem was compounded by the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Eurozone crisis, which saw European nations redirecting their foreign aid priorities toward bailing out struggling European Union member countries like Greece and Portugal. In 2011, the WHO <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-who-idUSTRE74I5I320110519">cut its budget</a> by nearly $1 billion and laid off 300 staff at its Geneva headquarters. Today, its <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/06/who-poor-response-ebola_n_5933866.html">$2 billion</a> annual spending is less than that of many U.S. hospitals.</p>
<p>In addition to those stark numbers, recent years have also seen a shift in public health priorities among member nations. In short, diseases of the poor like Ebola were no longer on the agenda, even among developing nations.</p>
<p>“There was more and more of a sense that if you’re part of the developing world, if you’ve left the ranks of the impoverished world, you no longer think that infectious diseases are part of your agenda,” says Garrett. “You become part of the rich club when you start worrying about cancer and heart disease. So there was a lot of pressure to shift the priorities of the organization away from disease identification and rapid response and toward normalizing programs for treatment and prevention of cancer, heart disease, diabetes, obesity, etc.”</p>
<p>This makes some sense. Non-communicable disease is an increasing and underappreciated problem, with more <a href="http://ideas.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/04/04/while_focusing_on_aids_and_malaria_are_we_missing_cancer_and_diabetes">than 80 percent</a> of the deaths from these conditions now occurring in the developing world. But the current Ebola outbreak starkly demonstrates the dangers of neglecting deadly viruses. For instance, the member states voted down a 2011 proposal to establish a $100 million epidemic task force.</p>
<p>The timing was also not favorable for a rapid response to this crisis. Garrett, who covered the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Zaire as a journalist, noted that last spring, when the extent of the emergency was becoming clear, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/05/mers-cases-double-saudi-arabia-201452141153288410.html">attention was focused</a> on the spread of the MERS virus in Saudi Arabia. “What exists of the WHO’s very small rapid disease response capacity was almost completely directed to the Saudi situation,” she said.</p>
<p>As many have tritely put it, the Ebola crisis has been a wakeup call which will prompt calls for reform. Governments and foundations may have picked up some of the funding slack, but only a multilateral body like the WHO can provide the coordination necessary for a global disease outbreak. There will hopefully be some soul-searching and concrete measures taken before the next crisis, though we still have a long way to go until we’re out of this one.</p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html">Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</a></em></strong></p>Wed, 22 Oct 2014 15:57:03 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/who_ebola_response_the_politics_and_economics_of_why_the_organization_was.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-22T15:57:03ZNews and PoliticsWhy Has the World Health Organization Done Such a Bad Job Responding to the Ebola Crisis?236141022001ebolaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/22/who_ebola_response_the_politics_and_economics_of_why_the_organization_was.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Has the World Health Organization Done Such a Bad Job Responding to the Ebola Crisis?Why Has the World Health Organization Done Such a Bad Job Responding to the Ebola Crisis?Photo by DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty ImagesMedical workers of the John Fitzgerald Kennedy hospital in Monrovia, Liberia put on protective suits prior to carrying bodies of Ebola virus victims on September 6, 2014.&nbsp;Why Countries Make Human Rights Pledges They Have No Intention of Honoringhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/why_countries_make_human_rights_pledges_they_have_no_intention_of_honoring.html
<p>Syria, which <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/05/syria-children-maim-torture-assad-forces-un">tortures children</a>, is a signatory to the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>. Uzbekistan, which has reportedly <a href="http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64442">boiled prisoners alive</a>, is a party to the <a href="https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&amp;mtdsg_no=IV-9&amp;chapter=4&amp;lang=en">Convention Against Torture</a>. Saudi Arabia, the only country in the world that prohibits women from driving, has signed on to the <a href="http://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/cedaw/states.htm">Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women</a>.</p>
<p>These cases cast doubt on the effectiveness of these treaties. They also raise the question of why countries bother signing such deals at all. Why bother making international commitments you have no intention of meeting?</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.mit.edu/~rnielsen/Rewards%20for%20Ratification_18jan2014.pdf">recent paper</a> by Richard Nielsen of MIT and Beth Simmons of Harvard and published in <a href="http://www.mit.edu/~rnielsen/Rewards%20for%20Ratification_18jan2014.pdf"><em>International Studies Quarterly</em></a> takes a look at this question. According to the authors, the conventional wisdom has been “that governments ratify human rights agreements because they expect some kind of material rewards, whether official aid, liberalized trade, or private investment.” There may also be a less tangible desire to be a “member in good standing” in the international community of “modern” nations.</p>
<p>But it turns out to be very hard to demonstrate this empirically. Looking at signatories and non-signatories to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights as well as the Convention Against Torture, the authors found “practically no support” for the notion that signing on carries material benefits for countries in the form of trade agreements, bilateral investment treaties, or increases in foreign aid.</p>
<p>For non-tangible benefits, the authors used statements by the EU, the U.S. government, and Amnesty International as a proxy for Western opinion. Aside from some perfunctory EU statements praising countries for acceding to treaties—the U.S. usually ignores these entirely—there was no measurable difference in the positive or negative tone of statements about these countries.</p>
<p>So why do they do it? It may have less to do with international validation than domestic politics. The authors say it’s possible “that governments sometimes see ratification as a small concession to their domestic political opponents” or, in a darker scenario, that “treaty ratification is a signal to domestic opponents that officials are willing to torture, despite such commitments.”</p>
<p>It also seems possible that even if the benefits are negligible, there’s little cost to countries for signing on. Why not take a public stand against torture if, in practice, doing so doesn’t preclude you from torturing?</p>
<p>After all, countries rarely try to withdraw from these agreements once they’ve signed, even if they’re subsequently in violation of them. One exception is North Korea, which <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&amp;mtdsg_no=IV-4&amp;chapter=4&amp;lang=en">tried to withdraw</a> from the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in 1997 but was denied permission by the U.N. secretary general because no mechanism for withdrawal existed.</p>
<p>The finding is also interesting when considering America’s attitude toward these treaties. If domestic considerations lead autocratic countries to sign on to treaties they have no intention of honoring, American domestic politics <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/obama_s_new_international_climate_change_strategy_how_do_you_negotiate_treaties.html">keep us from ratifying</a> treaties we are functionally in compliance with. One big reason why the U.S. Congress hasn’t signed on to the rights of the child or disability treaties, for instance, is the <a href="http://www.hslda.org/landingpages/crpd/default.aspx">vocal opposition</a> of the U.S. homeschooling movement. For U.S. senators, the downside of offending this constituency outweighs whatever marginal benefits the country would receive for approving a treaty that guarantees conditions that largely already exist.</p>Tue, 21 Oct 2014 19:13:32 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/why_countries_make_human_rights_pledges_they_have_no_intention_of_honoring.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-21T19:13:32ZNews and PoliticsWhy Countries Make Human Rights Pledges They Have No Intention of Honoring236141021002Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/why_countries_make_human_rights_pledges_they_have_no_intention_of_honoring.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy Countries Make Human Rights Pledges They Have No Intention of HonoringWhy Countries Make Human Rights Pledges They Have No Intention of HonoringPhoto by Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty ImagesThe permanent representative of Syria at the U.N. Human Rights Council, Faysal Khabbaz Hamoui, prepares for a debate in Geneva on May 29, 2013.The U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked.&nbsp;http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/the_u_s_has_spent_7_billion_fighting_the_war_on_drugs_in_afghanistan_poppy.html
<p>The <a href="http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/Special%20Projects/SIGAR-15-10-SP.pdf">latest report</a> from the U.S. government’s Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, gets right to the depressing point: “After a decade of reconstruction and over $7 billion in counternarcotics efforts, poppy cultivation levels are at an all-time high.” To get specific, that outlay is actually about $7.6 billion from a number of departments including State, Defense, the DEA, and USAID.</p>
<p>Ironically, the rise in poppy cultivation, and presumably opium production, is due in large part to some promising development trends. The report notes that “affordable deep-well technology” has turned about 200,000 hectares (almost 500,000 acres) of Afghan desert into arable farmland. With opium prices high and labor costs low, much of that land is now devoted to poppy farming.</p>
<p>According to SIGAR’s report, “The UNODC estimates that the value of the opium and its derivative products produced in Afghanistan was nearly $3 billion in 2013, up from $2 billion in 2012. This represents an increase of 50 percent in a single year.”</p>
<p>Poppy cultivation actually fell dramatically from 2007 to 2009, and has been climbing steadily ever since. Around 2009, the U.S. mostly&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/world/asia/24poppy.html">abandoned its previous strategy</a> of poppy eradication, which was felt to be turning farmers against the government, in favor of one that focuses on targeting the links between drug traffickers and the Taliban while giving farmers economic encouragement to grow other crops. That encouragement, evidently, hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>The drop in cultivation prior to 2009 probably had less to do with military efforts than with economic factors. Thanks to <a href="http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/opium-cultivation-in-afghanistan-down-by-a-fifth.html">drought and a global spike in food prices</a> during that period, the gross income ratio of poppies relative to wheat fell from 10-to-1 in 2007 to 3-to-1 in 2008. Since then, global wheat prices have eased—they’re <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-wheat-prices-pushed-to-four-year-low-1411348615">pretty low</a> at the moment—and the price of poppies has increased, and farmers have gone back to the harder stuff. Eastern Nangahar province, which was declared opium-free and touted as a counternarcotics success story in 2008, saw a fourfold increase in cultivation last year.</p>
<p>Farmers may also be hedging their bets in anticipation of the departure of NATO forces—<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29415170">the majority are pulling out</a> at the end of this year, leaving behind a smaller contingent of U.S. troops to train Afghan security forces. The majority of Afghanistan’s poppies are still grown in the Taliban-dominated Kandahar and Helmand provinces, but cultivation <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/13/world/la-fg-afghanistan-opium-20131114">has been increasing</a>&nbsp;around government-controlled Kabul as well.</p>Tue, 21 Oct 2014 15:40:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/the_u_s_has_spent_7_billion_fighting_the_war_on_drugs_in_afghanistan_poppy.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-21T15:40:00ZNews and PoliticsThe U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked.&nbsp;236141021001drugsafghansitanmilitarywarJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/21/the_u_s_has_spent_7_billion_fighting_the_war_on_drugs_in_afghanistan_poppy.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked.&nbsp;The U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked.&nbsp;Photo by Noorullah Shirzada/AFP/Getty ImagesAn Afghan farmer stands in a blooming poppy field on the outskirts of Jalalabad in Nangarhar province on April 12, 2014.Why We Shouldn’t Be Too Sure About the Supposed Deal to Return the Abducted Nigerian Schoolgirlshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/why_we_shouldn_t_be_too_sure_about_the_supposed_deal_to_return_the_abducted.html
<p>Last Friday, there seemed to be cause for cautious optimism <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/10/17/boko_haram_missing_girls_return_possible_report_says.html">in reports</a> that the Nigerian government was on the verge of a cease-fire with Boko Haram. That deal supposedly would have seen the release of the roughly 200 schoolgirls abducted from the town of Chibok in April, an act that provoked international outrage.</p>
<p>But things <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/18/chibok-schoolgirls-may-free-tuesday-nigeria-boko-haram">appear a bit more uncertain</a> today. Suspected Boko Haram fighters carried out two attacks on villages in northern Nigeria over the weekend, killing several people.</p>
<p>The government says these may not have been actual Boko Haram attacks, just criminal groups exploiting the chaos. But this uncertainty points to one of the reasons for being cautious about news of a deal: It’s getting harder to figure out who, exactly, Boko Haram is.</p>
<p>As one government official involved in the negotiation <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/18/uk-nigeria-violence-idUKKCN0I70GJ20141018">puts it</a>, “Boko Haram has grown into such an amorphous entity that any splinter group could come up disowning the deal. [But] we believe we are talking to the right people.”</p>
<p>One reason to be suspicious: The talks are being held with a previously unknown militant who <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/1018/Boko-Haram-suspected-in-two-fresh-Nigerian-attacks">describes himself</a> as the group’s “secretary general.” Boko Haram’s known leader, Abubakar Shekau, has not yet commented. The Nigerian military recently claimed that it killed Shekau, or at least a man who was posing as Shekau in a series of videos. Shekau himself has been <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29461095">rumored to be dead</a> a number of times, though earlier this month someone claiming to be the Boko Haram leader <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/10/02/dead-boko-haram-leader-tells-nigeria-im-still-alive/">appeared on video</a> saying, “Here I am, alive.” So, who knows—at this point, Shekau is essentially <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat">Schr&ouml;dinger’s terrorist</a>.</p>
<p>Given the criticism Goodluck Jonathan’s government has already faced over the abduction, it seems like it would be in Boko Haram’s interests to once again embarrass the government. This wouldn’t be the first time that a cease-fire had been declared only for Boko Haram to deny it later. After a deal was reached with the group’s “deputy leader” in July 2013, Shekau <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-13/nigeria-s-boko-haram-denies-cease-fire.html">quickly released</a> a video message saying, “Let me assure you that we will not enter into any truce with these infidels.”&nbsp;</p>
<p>We should probably know more by Tuesday, when Nigerian government sources say they aim to have the deal finalized. No matter the outcome, this weekend’s attacks are an indication that it probably won’t mean an end to northern Nigeria’s violence. For one thing, Boko Haram <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/world/africa/in-nigeria-ansaru-militant-group-poses-new-threat.html?pagewanted=all">isn’t the only game</a> in town. And there are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/13/boko_haram_offers_to_return_girls_in_exchange_for_prisoner_releases_should.html">bound to be questions</a> about what exactly the government gave up to get the schoolgirls back. But at least there’s a little bit more hope that the ordeal for the girls of Chibok will soon be coming to an end.&nbsp;</p>Mon, 20 Oct 2014 17:50:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/why_we_shouldn_t_be_too_sure_about_the_supposed_deal_to_return_the_abducted.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-20T17:50:00ZNews and PoliticsWhy We Shouldn’t Be Too Sure About the Supposed Deal to Return the Abducted Nigerian Schoolgirls236141020002nigeriaafricaboko haramterrorismJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/why_we_shouldn_t_be_too_sure_about_the_supposed_deal_to_return_the_abducted.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhy We Shouldn’t Be Too Sure About the Supposed Deal to Return the Abducted Nigerian SchoolgirlsWhy We Shouldn’t Be Too Sure About the Supposed Deal to Return the Abducted Nigerian SchoolgirlsPhoto by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty ImagesA man attends a Bring Back Our Girls rally in Abuja, Nigeria, on Oct. 14, 2014.Obama’s Post-Congressional Foreign Policyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.html
<p>An international deal with Iran over its nuclear program still doesn’t <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/iran-powers-resume-expert-level-nuclear-talks-wednesday-141912683.html">look like a slam dunk</a> at this point. Nevertheless, in a <em>New York Times</em> article today, the Obama administration makes clear that if an agreement is eventually reached, they have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/20/us/politics/obama-sees-an-iran-deal-that-could-avoid-congress-.html?ref=world">no plans to involve Congress</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
Even while negotiators argue over the number of centrifuges Iran would be allowed to spin and where inspectors could roam, the Iranians have signaled that they would accept, at least temporarily, a “suspension” of the stringent sanctions that have drastically cut their oil revenues and terminated their banking relationships with the West, according to American and Iranian officials. The Treasury Department, in a detailed study it declined to make public, has concluded Mr. Obama has the authority to suspend the vast majority of those sanctions without seeking a vote by Congress, officials say.
</blockquote>
<p>Only Congress can permanently lift the sanctions—which it’s unlikely to do even if Democrats hold on to the Senate—but the deal could be structured in such a way that this wouldn’t happen until Iran meets certain internationally verified benchmarks. In other words, it could be years.</p>
<p>It’s not unusual for presidents to look abroad in search of monsters to destroy late in their terms, as they have more authority to conduct foreign as opposed to domestic policy independently of Congress. But even by historical standards, the Obama administration seems to be particularly interested in freezing Congress out.</p>
<p>Given that it’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/28/obama_s_new_international_climate_change_strategy_how_do_you_negotiate_treaties.html">virtually impossible to get any multilateral treaty ratified by the Senate</a>—some obscure fishing regulations are the exception that proves the rule—the administration’s plan for a long-awaited climate change deal will involve “politically binding” commitments rather than legally binding ones, which Congress would have to approve.</p>
<p>In the case of what’s been dubbed “Operation Inherent Resolve,” the campaign of airstrikes to counter ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the administration <a href="http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/09/10/obama_86_d_the_war_powers_resolution">never sought congressional approval</a>. The 60-day deadline, after which Congress must authorize military action under the War Powers Resolution, has long passed. (Obama did issue a letter to Congress in September informing them of the operation and noting, somewhat vaguely, “I appreciate the support of the Congress in this action.”)</p>
<p>Yale Law professor and constitutional scholar Bruce Ackerman <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/obamas-betrayal-of-the-constitution.html">has described</a> the operation against ISIS as “a decisive break in the American constitutional tradition” that outdoes anything attempted by the Bush administration. But interestingly, congressional Republicans who normally jump on any chance to accuse the administration of imperial overreach, have been fairly blas&eacute; about these strikes. House Speaker <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2014/09/25/?entry=685">John Boehner says</a> that Congress should debate the use of military force against ISIS but only after the newly elected legislative body convenes in January—a lifetime in terms of a fast-moving military operation like this one.</p>
<p>There are several reasons for this trend toward post-Congressional foreign policy. One, obviously, is the dysfunction and gridlock in Congress, a situation that other governments are well aware of. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has mused that Obama will have a “a harder job”&nbsp;negotiating with Congress than he will with Iran. Chinese officials love to point out that they’re being lectured on their emissions commitments by a country in which a large number of legislators don’t even believe climate change is occurring.</p>
<p>Given the <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/25/the_senate_s_ambassador_backlog_is_getting_ridiculous.html">herculean effort</a> it evidently requires to get an ambassador to Palau confirmed in today’s Congress, it’s not a surprise that the administration is looking for workarounds on key issues like climate change, Iran’s nuclear program, and fighting ISIS.</p>
<p>In terms of war powers, President Obama has also gotten an ironic assist from his predecessor. <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/can-obama-start-war-without-consent-congress">As justification for the current operation</a>, the administration is relying on the 13-year-old Authorization for the Use of Military Force against terrorism, which the <a href="http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2014/08/obama-facing-war-powers-choice-over-iraq/92264/">president himself said</a> ought to be reexamined and reined in by Congress in a speech last year. (The administration is also now <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/us/politics/obama-could-reaffirm-a-bush-era-reading-of-a-treaty-on-torture.html">reportedly considering</a> whether to reaffirm the Bush administration’s reading of the U.N. Convention Against Torture.)</p>
<p>There are also larger global dynamics at work. <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/29/barack_obama_defends_his_foreign_policy_record_is_he_a_wartime_president.html">Today’s American wars</a> are typically open-ended campaigns against non-state actors, not fixed periods of combat between nations like those envisioned in the Constitution or the 1973 War Powers Act. Threats like climate change and nuclear proliferation also require swift global action of a kind that our current system seems ill-equipped to handle.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean the president should have unchecked powers to send troops into battle or commit the nation to major international agreements. For that to change, the White House will have to stop pushing to expand its power to act unilaterally at every opportunity, and Congress will have to start taking its oversight role seriously. At the moment, neither seems very likely.</p>Mon, 20 Oct 2014 17:13:05 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-20T17:13:05ZNews and PoliticsWhen It Comes to Foreign Policy, President Obama Is Acting Like Congress Doesn’t Exist236141020001foreign policyiranisiscongressJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/20/when_it_comes_to_foreign_policy_president_obama_is_acting_like_congress.htmlfalsefalsefalseWhen It Comes to Foreign Policy, President Obama Is Acting Like Congress Doesn’t ExistWhen It Comes to Foreign Policy, President Obama Is Acting Like Congress Doesn’t ExistPhoto by Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty ImagesOut on his own.America’s Fears of Immigration, Terrorism, and Ebola Are Combining Into a Supercluster of Anxietyhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.html
<p>There’s been a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/08/25/rick_perry_says_isis_could_sneak_into_the_u_s_from_mexico_the_el_qaida_meme.html">persistent and mostly baseless claim</a> in American politics over the last few years that Islamist terrorist have been actively attempting to enter the country through the U.S.-Mexico border. There’s also a long tradition of suggesting that immigrants crossing the border pose a serious public health risk. Ebola was <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/immigrant_scaremongering_and_hate_conservatives_stoke_fears_of_diseased.html">roped into this</a> months before anyone in the U.S. contracted the disease, but the fear mongering has ramped up dramatically more recently.</p>
<p>So, this being campaign season, it was only a matter of time before fears about immigrants, terrorism, and Ebola were combined into one rhetorical supercluster of anxiety.</p>
<p>When <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/10/14/scott-brown-anyone-with-ebola-can-walk-across-our-porous-border/">asked in a radio interview</a> this week whether he favored travel restrictions on countries in West Africa, Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator now running for Senate in New Hampshire argued that we have a border that’s so porous that anyone can walk across it” and “it’s naive to think that people aren’t going to be walking through here who have those types of diseases and/or other types of intent, criminal or terrorist.”</p>
<p>To be fair, this is a little ambiguous as to whether the people with terrorist intent are the same ones who have the diseases. More explicit was Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/gop-congressman-says-american-jihadis-might-return-to-us-wit#3bwif0g">who suggested</a> that U.S. citizens who travel abroad to join jihadist groups, could intentionally infect themselves with Ebola. “Think about the job they could do, the harm they could inflict on the American people by bring this deadly disease into our cities, into schools, into our towns, and into our homes,” he said.</p>
<p>But it took Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina to really bring things full circle by suggesting that closing the border to keep out <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/gop-congressman-hamas-might-infected-themselves-with-ebola-a#3bwif0g">Ebola-infected Hamas fighters</a>: “Part of their creed would be to bring persons who have Ebola into our country. It would promote their creed. And all this could be avoided by sealing the border, thoroughly. C’mon, this is the 21st century.”</p>
<p>This would all be quite funny if <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/10/politics/ebola-fears-spark-backlash-latinos/">real people</a> weren’t being <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/west-africans-in-washington-say-they-are-being-stigmatized-because-of-ebola-fear/2014/10/16/39442d18-54c6-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html?hpid=z2">unfairly stigmatized.</a></p>
<p>Ebola, first of all, is <em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/ebola_and_bioterrorism_the_virus_is_not_a_bioweapon_despite_media_myths.html">not a very potentially effective bioweapon</a></em>. And even if willing recruits were somehow recruited into the Ebola jihad, there are probably easier ways for them to get into the country than by sneaking across the border.</p>
<p>Something also seems fundamentally absurd about a country where Ebola already <em>is </em>present walling itself off out of fear from a country where it isn’t. There haven’t yet been any confirmed Ebola cases in Mexico or anywhere in Latin America. Meanwhile, a Dallas healthcare worker being monitored for signs of the disease boarded a cruise and <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2014/10/17/monitors-health-care-worker-aboard-cruise-for-ebola/hKJaDpMq7y1UHSTvg1XI1M/story.html?hootPostID=0fd058b720f73ff6633accdf72f67aec">nearly disembarked</a> in Mexico and Belize this week. </p>
<p>If Ebola does jump the U.S.-Mexico border at some point, I’m not sure why we’re assuming it’s going to be heading north.</p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html">Read more of Slate’s coverage of Ebola.</a></em></strong></p>Fri, 17 Oct 2014 21:36:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-17T21:36:00ZNews and PoliticsAmerica’s Fears of Immigration, Terrorism, and Ebola Are Combining Into a Supercluster of Anxiety236141017002ebolaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/america_s_fears_of_immigration_terrorism_and_ebola_are_combining_into_a.htmlfalsefalsefalseAmerica’s Fears of Immigration, Terrorism, and Ebola Are Combining Into a Supercluster of AnxietyAmerica’s Fears of Immigration, Terrorism, and Ebola Are Combining Into a Supercluster of AnxietyPhoto by Darren McCollester/Getty ImagesScott BrownWould the U.N. Ever Have Authorized Airstrikes Against ISIS?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/new_members_elected_to_the_u_n_security_council_the_body_has_looked_pretty.html
<p>Angola, Malaysia, New Zealand, Venezuela, and Spain, were elected as<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29654003"> non-permanent members</a> of the U.N. Security Council yesterday. Venezuela is likely to frequently join Russia and China—the so-called “sovereignty caucus” on the council—in opposing U.S. initiatives. The U.S. opposed Venezuela’s bid to join the council in 2006, but this time only registered its objections after the fact, with Amb. Samantha Power saying that the country’s “conduct at the UN has run counter to the spirit of the UN Charter.”</p>
<p>But the bigger story may be that Turkey, which had also put in a bid for membership, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/turkey-loses-out-un-security-council-seat-20141016185125847941.html">narrowly lost out</a> on a spot to New Zealand and Spain in the “Western Europe and Others” group. This comes at a time when Turkey’s NATO allies are <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/08/the_fall_of_the_small_syrian_city_could_anger_kurds_draw_turkey_further.html">extremely frustrated</a> with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government’s reluctance to participate more actively in the fight against ISIS militants across the border in Syria. (This week Turkish warplanes <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/turkish-warplanes-bomb-kurdish-pkk-in-turkey-1413296160">bombed camps of the Kurdish PKK</a> movement in Turkey in the first major offensive since peace talks began two years ago. Given that Kurdish fighters have been on the frontlines against ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, Turkey could be seen as actively hampering the coalition.)</p>
<p>Turkey’s foreign minister <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/world/americas/venezuela-gets-security-council-seat-turkey-fails.html">said after the vote</a> that “there may be some countries disturbed by our principled stance” and that “we could not abandon our principles for the sake of getting more votes.”</p>
<p>The vote was also a reminder of just how irrelevant the Security Council—and international law, generally—has seemed during the latest military intervention in the Middle East. While chaired by Obama, the Council <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/09/24/obama-led-un-security-council-unanimously-passes-anti-isis-resolution">did pass an anti-ISIS resolution</a> in late September, but it doesn’t seem like going to the U.N., as the U.S. did during the 2011 intervention in Libya, for authorization for the strikes within Syria was every seriously considered.</p>
<p>Rather, the administration is relying on the vague and <a href="http://justsecurity.org/14414/international-law-airstrikes-isis-syria/">controversial notion</a> that the use of force is authorized when a local actor is “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-syria-crisis-un-usa-exclusive-idUSKCN0HI22120140923">unwilling or unable</a>” to contain a growing security threat. The lack of interest in the topic here is in stark contrast to Britain, where the opposition Labour party has <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/23/labour-resolution-security-council-isis-air-strikes">balked at supporting</a> airstrikes in Syria without a U.N. resolution. (They did <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/26/world/europe/uk-parliament-iraq-isis/">support strikes</a> in Iraq.)</p>
<p>The reason why going to the Security Council on Syria airstrikes was never seriously considered may seem obvious: Permanent member Russia would never support it. But as Jennifer Trahan notes, it’s not actually entirely out of the question that Moscow might have come around.</p>
<p>The Russian government, perhaps Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest international ally, <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/lavrov-u-s-should-back-syria-s-assad-in-fighting-islamic-state/505840.html">has objected to</a> the U.S. bombing Syrian territory without the Syrian government’s permission. But Syria’s foreign minister says his government <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-syria-ok-us-airstrikes-174740021.html">is actually “OK”</a> with the strikes “as long as they are aiming at ISIS locations.”</p>
<p>It’s possible to imagine a scenario under which the U.S. would promise to limit its airstrikes to ISIS, rather than Syrian government targets—as it is actually doing in practice—and get the Russian government’s buy-in. (China already seems <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/11/world/asia/china-us-isis/">quietly on board.</a>)</p>
<p>However, this would involve admitting that the U.S. and Assad governments are increasingly becoming—if not allies—at least partners against a common enemy, something the administration maintains is not the case. It would also allow Russia to gloat that it <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-27/world-knows-terror-bigger-threat-than-assad-lavrov-says.html">knew all along</a> that Assad wasn’t the real danger in the region.</p>
<p>Given that option, it’s not much surprise that Obama seems to be moving closer to his <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/03/26/why_did_obama_just_defend_the_iraq_war.html">predecessor’s view</a> on the necessity of working within the international system.</p>Fri, 17 Oct 2014 18:02:03 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/new_members_elected_to_the_u_n_security_council_the_body_has_looked_pretty.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-17T18:02:03ZNews and PoliticsHas America Stopped Even Pretending to Care About the U.N. Security Council?236141017001Joshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/17/new_members_elected_to_the_u_n_security_council_the_body_has_looked_pretty.htmlfalsefalsefalseHas America Stopped Even Pretending to Care About the U.N. Security Council?Has America Stopped Even Pretending to Care About the U.N. Security Council?Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesUN representatives for Venezuela celebrate after being elected to a two-year term as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.&nbsp;Does Arming Rebels Ever Work?http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/classified_cia_report_finds_that_arming_rebels_rarely_works_so_where_does.html
<p>The <em>New York Times</em> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/us/politics/cia-study-says-arming-rebels-seldom-works.html?ref=world">reports today</a> on a still-classified CIA report, commissioned by the Obama administration during the debate in 2012 and 2013 over whether to increase U.S. support for the anti-Assad rebels in Syria. Senior officials tell the <em>Times </em>that the report “concluded that many past attempts by the agency to arm foreign forces covertly had a minimal impact on the long-term outcome of a conflict. They were even less effective, the report found, when the militias fought without any direct American support on the ground.”</p>
<p>Obama referred to this report in <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/27/going-the-distance-2">an interview with the <em>New Yorker</em>’s David Remnick</a> last year, saying, “Very early in this process, I actually asked the CIA to analyze examples of America financing and supplying arms to an insurgency in a country that actually worked out well. And they couldn’t come up with much.”</p>
<p>The best example they found was the support for the anti-Soviet mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s, which eventually forced a Soviet withdrawal from the country. But Afghanistan’s subsequent experience doesn’t exactly make that an encouraging case study.</p>
<p>The fact that the president and his advisers are talking about the unreleased document may be part of a plan to counter a line of criticism voiced by, among others, former Secretary of State <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton-failure-to-help-syrian-rebels-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/375832/">Hillary Clinton</a> and former Secretary of Defense <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/politics/panetta-splits-with-obama/">Leon Panetta</a>. That criticism—that the situation in Syria wouldn’t have spiraled out of control if the U.S. had provided more aid to the “moderate” rebels sooner—is contradicted by the CIA’s report.</p>
<p>The CIA’s assessment jibes with the academic literature on the topic, as George Washington University political scientist Marc Lynch <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/08/11/would-arming-syrias-rebels-have-stopped-the-islamic-state/">recently wrote</a> on the <em>Washington Post</em>’s <em>Monkey Cage</em> blog:</p>
<blockquote>
In general,&nbsp;
<a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&amp;aid=8399076&amp;fulltextType=RA&amp;fileId=S0020818311000233">external support</a>&nbsp;for rebels almost always make wars longer, bloodier, and harder to resolve. … Worse, as the University of Maryland’s David Cunningham has
<a href="http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/47/2/115.short">shown</a>, Syria had most of the characteristics of the type of civil war in which external support for rebels is&nbsp;
<em>least</em>&nbsp;effective. The University of Colorado’s Aysegul Aydin and Binghamton University’s Patrick Regan have
<a href="http://ejt.sagepub.com/content/18/3/573.abstract">suggested</a>&nbsp;that external support for a rebel group could help when all the external powers backing a rebel group are on the same page and effectively cooperate in directing resources to a common end. Unfortunately, Syria was never that type of civil war.
</blockquote>
<p>The U.S. occasionally aided anti-communist rebel groups throughout the Cold War—the Bay of Pigs invasion was a notable example—but it really ramped up its support with the “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/05/28/_the_obama_doctrine_which_other_presidents_have_had_doctrines_named_after.html">Reagan doctrine</a>” of the 1980s, which involved countering Soviet support for leftist governments in the developing world by funding anti-Communist rebel groups. In addition to Afghanistan, the CIA funneled arms and money to anti-Communist rebels in Nicaragua and Afghanistan.</p>
<p>In the context of the Cold War, there’s an argument to be made that this strategy worked—the Soviet Union collapsed, after all—but in the actual conflicts, the outcomes were ambiguous and the wars longer and bloodier than they might have been otherwise. (Angola’s civil war lasted 27 years.)</p>
<p>The study of history might have led to the White House’s reluctance to have the CIA provide direct aid to the rebels. The agency, though, was involved <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html?pagewanted=all">in facilitating aid</a> from others, Arab governments and Turkey in particular, who may have been less discriminating about the recipients of that support than the U.S. might have been. When future historians ponder the lessons of this engagement, they may conclude that historical examples led the U.S. away from one set of mistakes and toward a whole different set of errors.</p>Wed, 15 Oct 2014 18:26:00 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/classified_cia_report_finds_that_arming_rebels_rarely_works_so_where_does.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-15T18:26:00ZNews and PoliticsThe CIA Finally Admits That Arming Rebels Doesn’t Work236141015002militaryinternationalsyriaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/classified_cia_report_finds_that_arming_rebels_rarely_works_so_where_does.htmlfalsefalsefalseThe CIA Finally Admits That Arming Rebels Doesn’t WorkThe CIA Finally Admits That Arming Rebels Doesn’t WorkPhoto by Patrick David/AFP/Getty ImagesAfghan Mujahedeen fighters pose with a captured Soviet soldier in 1986.What Can We Learn From How Nigeria Contained Ebola? Not That Much.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.html
<p>Nigeria and Senegal <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN0I40J920141015?utm_content=buffer88f6f&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">could be declared</a> Ebola-free by the World Health Organization in a few days, after clearing the requisite 42-day period with no new cases. In all, 20 people were infected in Nigeria with eight fatalities. Only one person in Senegal became infected, but that victim has recovered.</p>
<p>The news is cause for a cautious sigh of relief, if not total celebration. Though the global outbreak is still far from contained, the prospect of it getting loose in Lagos—Africa’s largest city and a major international commercial center—was one of the more terrifying scenarios we’ve had to contemplate over the last few weeks.</p>
<p>The success these countries had in containing the outbreak is going to prompt some discussion of what lessons can be learned for other places fighting Ebola. The <em>Financial Times</em> <a>attributes</a> Nigeria’s achievement to a “rare national effort that saw the Lagos state government, federal institutions, the private sector, and global non-governmental organizations all pulling in the same direction to defeat the disease.” That national effort included a presidential decree that gave officials access to phone records and a strict system to monitor potential cases, one that involved tracking down more than 800 people who may have had contact with the infected.</p>
<p>But arguably, Nigeria didn’t actually do a very impressive job. A single Liberian man, who traveled to Nigeria in July, infected 11 hospital staff in the time between his admission to a hospital and when his test results were received. There might have been more infections if not for a doctors’ strike that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/11/world/africa/ebola-in-nigeria.html">reduced the number of people</a> who came in contact with him. One doctor told the <em>New York Times</em>, “At the time, nobody was prepared for it.”</p>
<p>The advantage Nigeria had was that its outbreak began with this one man, who was immediately taken from the airport to a clinic, at a time when Ebola was already a crisis. By contrast, international agencies and authorities in the three countries at the epicenter of the outbreak—Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—didn’t wake up to the severity of the disease until dozens were already infected.</p>
<p>Rather than demonstrating the effectiveness of any particular method of Ebola control, the case of Nigeria, and the less severe case of Senegal, confirm what we’ve <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/25/west_africa_s_ebola_outbreak_is_spiraling_out_of_control.html">known about the disease from the beginning</a>. Despite its high mortality rate, Ebola is relatively difficult to transmit from person to person, and under normal circumstances, it’s relatively easy to contain with common-sense public health measures: isolating those infected, limiting the exposure of health care workers, and tracking those who may have come in contact with them. For a variety of reasons, this was not done in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea until it was too late.</p>
<p>Despite early lapses, Nigeria—a country that’s not known for reliable public institutions or health care infrastructure—was able to get the outbreak under control. And despite the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/14/ebola-dallas-hospital-mistakes/17204527/">early lapses in Dallas</a>, the U.S. should be able to do the same.</p>
<p>Of course, that's not much comfort if you live in one of the countries where it’s already out of control.&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/topics/e/ebola.html"><strong><em>Read more of Slate’s coverage of&nbsp;Ebola</em></strong></a><em><strong>.</strong></em></p>Wed, 15 Oct 2014 18:12:13 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-15T18:12:13ZNews and PoliticsNigeria Didn’t Actually Do an Amazing Job Containing Ebola236141015001ebolaafricapublic healthinternationalnigeriaJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/15/nigeria_and_senegal_on_the_verge_of_being_declared_ebola_free_can_we_learn.htmlfalsefalsefalseNigeria Didn’t Actually Do an Amazing Job Containing EbolaNigeria Didn’t Actually Do an Amazing Job Containing EbolaPhoto by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty ImagesA teacher demonstrates to pupils washing procedures to prevent the spread of the Ebola virus at a school in Lagos on Oct. 8, 2014.Vladimir Putin’s Tiger Is Lost in Chinahttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/13/vladimir_putin_s_tiger_kuzya_is_lost_in_china.html
<p>If you happen to be traipsing about China’s Heilongjiang province and come across a lost-looking Siberian tiger, the Kremlin would like it back.</p>
<p>Kuzya, a tiger that was personally released back into the wild by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has caused something of an international incident by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/world/asia/putins-tiger-crosses-into-china-prompting-a-diplomatic-rush.html">wading across</a> the Amur River that separates Russia from China.* Russian authorities, who have tracked Kuzya’s 300-mile wanderings by radio transmitter, are worried about his safety in China, where poached tiger carcasses can fetch up to $10,000 on the black market. There are also concerns that he won’t make it back into Russia before winter turns the river into impassable icy slush.</p>
<p>There are only about <a href="http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/siberian-tiger/">400 to 500</a> Siberian tigers left in the wild, and their protection has been a passion project for Putin. (It’s a cause that dovetails nicely with the president’s penchant for manly outdoor photo ops.) Kuzya was part of a group of cubs that were rescued after their mother was killed by a poacher. Putin presided over their release into the wild at an event in May.</p>
<p>The Siberian tiger is particularly endangered in China, where there are thought to be only a few dozen left. At a time when <a href="http://rt.com/news/159804-putin-china-visit-interview/">the two countries are emphasizing</a> close ties amid strained relations between Russia and the West, it would be extremely embarrassing for China if anything were to happen to “Putin’s tiger.” Chinese authorities have <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/11/putin-tiger-china/17094597/">set up more than 60 cameras</a> in hopes of spotting him, and may have gotten their first lead in the case on Saturday, when hair, feces, and tracks were spotted in far northeastern Heilongjiang. But there are now also worries that Kuzya’s sister, Ilona, may be headed for the border in an area more heavily inhabited by people.</p>
<p>Despite all the jokes about <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2784978/Putin-s-tiger-cub-defects-CHINA-Satellite-tracking-shows-endangered-beast-collared-Russian-president-trip-border.html">Kuzya defecting</a> or attempting to annex northern China on Putin’s behalf, the tigers, of course, don’t realize what country they’re in. It’s not unusual for them to move back and forth across the river in search of food.</p>
<p>But, as <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/border_control">I wrote for <em>Foreign Policy</em></a> back in 2010, animals are sometimes aware of international borders. The most famous case is probably that of <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB125729481234926717">the Ahornia deer</a>, the last Europeans still living inside the Iron Curtain. The deer live in the forests along the German-Czech border, now a nature preserve. During the Cold War, though, an electrified fence demarcated the border between what was then West Germany and Czechoslovakia. The fence is long gone, but more than 20 years later, the deer still won’t cross where it once stood.</p>
<p>Animals can establish a kind of national identity as well. Researchers at the University of Haifa <a href="http://newmedia-eng.haifa.ac.il/?p=1622">have observed</a> that Israeli gerbils behave far more cautiously than their counterparts who live just a few miles away in Jordan. This is likely due to the more industrialized agriculture on the Israeli side of the border.</p>
<p>Hopefully Kuzya, then, can make it back to friendlier environs before experiencing too much in the way of physical danger or culture shock.</p>
<p><em><strong>*Correction, Oct. 13, 2014: </strong>This post originally misspelled Amur River.</em></p>Mon, 13 Oct 2014 19:10:30 GMThttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/13/vladimir_putin_s_tiger_kuzya_is_lost_in_china.htmlJoshua Keating2014-10-13T19:10:30ZNews and PoliticsVladimir Putin’s Tiger Is Lost in China236141013002animalsrussiachinavladimir putinJoshua KeatingThe WorldThe Worldhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/13/vladimir_putin_s_tiger_kuzya_is_lost_in_china.htmlfalsefalsefalseVladimir Putin’s Tiger Is Lost in ChinaVladimir Putin’s Tiger Is Lost in ChinaPhoto by Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty ImagesPutin attaches a satellite transmitter to a (different) tiger on Aug. 31, 2008.