Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.

Friday, January 04, 2008

By Populist Demand

So does anyone care yet? The second derivative talking head analysis isn't even amusing. Huckabee has no legs. Clinton and Romney are wounded? GMAFB. They are both marathon campaigners. Clinton/Edwards v Romney/McCain in Nov.

73 comments:

I tell you, other than FIRST! It must be noted that the Clintons looked aghast that they lost. It had to have taken some wind out of their sails.

Second, the Clintons rely on smear campaigns and attacks to win elections. They can't do that this time, Obama rails against those tactics and Hillary apologizes. I don't think that sets an easy win for her.

Clinton may have been nicked in Iowa, but she is still the next president. Barack has a very slim chance to beat her if he runs a better than flawless campaign thru Tsunami Tuesday. The Republicans would need to invent a time machine, Assassinate Bush a couple of years ago and head off the recession. Even then it would be close.

The youth vote almost never works except when it isn't a deciding factor. Kennedy beat Nixon with dead people in Illinois not 21 year olds in California.

Clinton still seems the likely Dem candidate but I think the Ds are seriously underestimating her negatives. I've never seen such a large "no way no how" contingent like she garners. I'd consider actually donating to the opposition if necessary and that's really huge. I don't give money to politicians except at the point of a gun. The Ds cannot win with Clinton on the ticket. middle America won't stand for it even if the Rs screw up the smear campaign. The Clinton's remarkable luck investing and in real estate etc. is going to really hurt them in a general election where the MSM is no longer able to contain the damage.

The coasts will not accept a Republican ticket. The "no way no how" contingent against them is as big as it is against her. One of the reasons she is leading is people believe she will be as good at smearing as the Republicans are.

If the Dems have to fight for California they lose. Doesn't matter whether they ultimately win California or not the effort to fight here will be fatal nationally. How can California become competitive? Well with Obama never but with Clinton and a bad economy... Look, the last Clinton admin screwed CA but right with his military non-policies. Don't think people have forgotten. And her tax positions won't win her any friends. A moderate cut taxes Rep could court the State. Make no mistake, the electoral mathematics makes it all but impossible for the Ds to win without California while the Reps are already working their numbers assuming California is not viable.

The Dem race is Obama's to lose. He has run a slick if vapid campaign, and people are starting to see him as a winner over any possible GOP opposition. Rob is spot on with the "no way no how" for Clinton, especially in the South. The Dems are in for a very tough campaign if she wins the nom. Edwards is a joke. A zillionaire trial lawyer and hedge fund partner, and we're supposed to believe he's on the side of the working man? Please. No way he prevails in the general election.

At first I didn't understand Huckabee's surge. He really came out of nowhere. I couldn't understand why anyone, after 8 years of Dubya, would want another hayseed in the White House. But I've figured it out.

The MSM have run all sorts of fawning articles on Huck over the last month, peaking with the "Huck is so great because he'll show us this negative ad but he won't run it" story. Their wet dream is that Huck somehow wins the GOP nom, and they can portray the main event as the black JFK against the preacher who doesn't believe in dinosaurs. Obama trounces him with 60% of the vote, claims a mandate, and with the Dems running Congress, we get universal health care and all the other garbage.

Too many people think that Bush's negatives will terribly hurt the GOP in this election. However the party candidates are all from well outside the Bush camp. The Democrat establishment candidates Clinton and Edwards don't exactly have anything good to show for any 'opposition' during the last 8 years.

Change is the order of the day, so Obama and the GOP candidates are in the stronger position.

Among the rest, he took on 18%.He is going to get whacked on Tuesday up here in New Hampshire as there are about as many fundelmentalists are there are Muslims.

I am going drinking at the watering hole most the staffers and MMM hang in Manchester this weekend. Gonna see if we can get someone important hammered and take them over to Mark's Showplace for beers/blondes/boobjobs and fishnets.

If we pull it off, I will give you a couple shots for your web site Rob. You will see your traffic explode faster than KC in a perp walk..

The pictures are creepy. Hot chicks would get us looking at the pictures more.

Bushes negatives will hurt the party. Look where all the independants are going in Iowa and New Hampshire. Look where the money is going. Democrats are not going to take the south anyway so Hillary hatred there does not matter. Democrats are going to take California so Hillary hatred does not affect anything here either.

The Republican candidates are running to the right because moderates and independants have been driven from the party.

Obama is a candidate that has a chance for change and is probably the best candidate for America. Hillary is the very odds on favorite.

Simi, You can have my job. Spot on. It is also why the MSM is so nasty to Romney and Paul. Each for different reasons represent a candidate that they cannot effectively manipulate.

It is Obama's to lose on the D side. He can still lose it with a little dirty like the house/land deal or a stupid that resonates. The Clinto machine is just waiting for one of those to get traction.

What people have yet to grasp is Romney national. This guy has his national campaign almost solid. He isn't doubling down on every win to get lucky at the end. When we were at his last fund raiser last month there weren't "sign up sheets" or any of that crap there were unhosted tours of the aboretiums and for you worriers; yes there was beer and wine. It didn't hurt that he had one of my favorite Cajun/American chefs carving the roast beef sandwiches. I thank our host Mr. David Murdoch for his hospitality. Weirdest lawn in North America.

No, the wining and dining hasn't swayed my choice, just my betting on the outcome. I was deeply troubled to find out my views on several popular issues aligned me closest to Ron Paul. As excuse it was only by 2% over two others (70% v 66%,65%) and even Hillary had a supposed 54% similarity.

For the other 309.9 million people in this nation; St. Anselm is a college in the area. The kids who don't go there are forced to settle for Harvard or Yale or god forbid Berkeley. Usually, rather than settle for those lower tier schools these kids "spend a year" and try again.

Anyway, the campus is an excellent national bellwether in an early state. They glommed on Clinton, heck they glommed on Carter. Two unlikely ultimate winners at the time of the NH primaries.

I think the main problem with Hillary is that I can’t really envision her in a Bollywood film – also she's stuck with Barbra Streisand while Obama has Scarlett Johansson on the campaign trail with him.

BTW, how is the storm treating other Californians here? My fence blew over and has created quite a mess in the garden. At least I have power.

Giuliani/Thompson or Thompson/Giuliani nice balance, and a lot to be said for either combination.

vs.

HillObam/Edwards

(Ponyboy is assured a Veep slot because the Dems do not want, and cannot afford to be perceived as totally abandoning the Caucasian Male constituency...this of course is assuming that Ponyboy will be perceived by the electorate as truly a Caucasian Male, which is a debate we will have for another 10 months or so).

@waiting_for_the_fall,I hope you're kidding. Are you saying that a Catholic isn't a "Christian" and we've never had a Catholic president? Did you forget about JFK? In addition, there's no evidence that Obama is a Muslim either. Whatever the case might be, I don't believe religion has any place in American politics - and when it has played a role as in our current W-tard it has been disastrous.Now back to uploading a sweet fishnets video for ZB's fishnet Friday.

I am into high tech.When we talk schools, it is engineering schools like MIT, RIT, Wentworth, the other MIT etc.All my neighbors are engineers too, so St A's does not get a lot of notice when we are scouting schools.

You are correct about their political bent. No different from BC or Holy Cross. But liberal locals push their kids to:A: Smith in North Hampton Ma if female (I think Hillary went there).B: HavardC: Yale/Dartmouth.D: Brown/Princeton

At this level, it is the long term social connections and not the degree that counts.

A couple things to remember:

1 NH historically expects people to swim or drown on their own. Charity rates are low, as is welfare. They band together in an emergency (eg we dealt with the floods of 06 before the Feds established a command center), but there is no free cheese for whiners. 2. NH is the opposite of its neighbors to the south, the west,or east, where they lean left politically a great deal more.3. The majority of the population is within 20 miles of the Southern border with Mass. Most residents are fiscally conservative, as it contains people fed up with views/tax structures in Mass and to a lesser extent, CT and NJ. The northern & western borders are more liberal (the eastern side is not because of the way they get hosed on Maine income taxes),but they don't have enough votes to matter.

ok, geography lesson is over. time for the punch line.

So St Anselmns is in S. NH which is conservative. As such, there is little press as the local paper is very conservative (Manchester Union Leader) and the more liberal papers in Concord and Nashua are not in the same league.

And like Holy Cross 60 miles South, they are not the type to be in the spotlight like a Harvard Professor.

a good school focused on education instead of football/basketball.

by the way, keep an eye on Holy Cross. It is quietly making a name for itself.

All you left coasters enjoy the storm. We just finished 4 of them in 7 days. Got 3' of the white stuff for some super skiing. The last 3 days have shown a high temp of 13 degrees and the flags were straight out from the wind.

"In addition, there's no evidence that Obama is a Muslim either. Whatever the case might be, I don't believe religion has any place in American politics - and when it has played a role as in our current W-tard it has been disastrous."

Really?

So you'd vote for the Taliban candidate then, since religion has no place in politics n'all?

"Now back to uploading a sweet fishnets video for ZB's fishnet Friday."

No...that has been forbidden by the candidate you voted for, who not only believes that his religion DOES have a role in politics, but that that his religion IS his politics.

I like you, Akubi, but you'd better get your head out of your ass before you get it put into a burkha...

bilgeman said...Giuliani/Thompson or Thompson/Giuliani nice balance, and a lot to be said for either combination.

vs.

HillObam/Edwards

(Ponyboy is assured a Veep slot because the Dems do not want, and cannot afford to be perceived as totally abandoning the Caucasian Male constituency...this of course is assuming that Ponyboy will be perceived by the electorate as truly a Caucasian Male, which is a debate we will have for another 10 months or so).

Holy christ! I only thought you were full of shit, but now, I know. Thompson and Guilliani as running mates! Holy christ! Your finger upon the pulse of the nation, is, well, a sad delusion. Not sure why you Birchers are going for Saint 911, but hell I hope you continue. It will comedy in a grand sense when the Birchers get exactly what they want, then say, 'huh' upon another Waco, or Ruby Ridge.

Bush has been a godsend for al-Qaeda and for a candidate they would definitely prefer a Republican. There favorite would probably be Rudy. The Taliban would prefer either Ron Paul or Jon Edwards because both of them are talking about leaving Afganistan.

Bush may be a nutcase, but I haven't seen him talk about needing to do honor killings.

A brief period of xenophobic isolationism and the rest of the world would be begging us to resume our responsibilities as a superpower. Nationalist Russia sweating Europe, Central American socialism on the rise. ChiComm reasserting old territorial claims. India and Pakistan left to their own "devices."

We don't have a drought and this one storm means we won't have a drought for at least two more years. Strangely my microclimate has gotten bypassed by this storm so far. Started late, ended early, 1.3 inches is nothing but a shower. Now, Truckee and Mammoth are getting hit big and that is where the water comes from.

@Bilgeman,I’m not sure I get your point about the Taliban because I see them as a perfect – if extreme - example of exactly what goes wrong when one mixes religious ideology into politics. I was pissed off at the Taliban before most people even knew who they were and was angry at the Bush Admin for not doing anything to intervene when they planned to blow up the Bamiyan Buddhas – irreplaceable cultural loss for future generations.BTW, according to Wikipedia, Obama is a Christian.

As far as the weather here, I’ve been hit pretty hard by the storms. Even worse my parents lost their electricity so my Hillary fanatic stepdad wants to watch the debates at my place tonight.

"I’m not sure I get your point about the Taliban because I see them as a perfect – if extreme - example of exactly what goes wrong when one mixes religious ideology into politics."

You are assuming that you can totally isolate religion from politics. I say you cannot totally do this.

So the choice that is left is to choose those whose religious beliefs, (and how they practice or don't practice them), is what you can most comfortably live with.

I'd say given a choice between Mike Huckabee and Mullah Omar, most Americans would chhose Huck.

Between Mitt Romney and Josef Stalin, most folks would vote for Mitt.

Blanket statements like:

"I don't believe religion has any place in American politics"

though, display an absolute position.

And one which, BTW, would have disqualified some of the Presidents past that you might revere.

" I was pissed off at the Taliban before most people even knew who they were and was angry at the Bush Admin for not doing anything to intervene when they planned to blow up the Bamiyan Buddhas – irreplaceable cultural loss for future generations."

You were pissed at Bush because he didn't intervene to save someone's religious idols? Wouldn't that have been mixing politics into religion?

And sweet leapin' Jesus, Akubi, while undoubtedly incomparable works of art, they're just piles of stone, y'know. They can be rebuilt. Bigger and Better.(A lesson Trump,of all people, gets about the World Trade Center...build another Twin Towers, 111 stories each this time).

Now the shit the Taliban did to women and children...THAT was what was truly obscene.

As well as giving aid and succour to Pig-Fucker Bin-Laden and his buddies.

I don't recognize her but from the looks of her tongue and mouth she might be one of those a Palestian women doing that braying an uvular mourning chant- the weird one that NPR and the BBC like to use as background sound whenever they do a sympathy stories on those losers.

@bilgeman,The Bamiyan Buddhas were not just piles of stone but a World Heritage Site that - had we been at war at the time - would have been considered a war crime to destroy. The buddhas and the frescoes inside weren’t just "someone’s religious idols" but represented a very interesting period in world history when there was an unusual intersection of Asian, European and Middle Eastern ideas. A number of the caves that hadn’t yet been fully excavated before they were blown up can never be replaced because we don’t know exactly what was in them. Replacing something like this would be like putting the Parthenon back together in its entirety. It would not be built with the same hands and limited technology of the time. Personally, I would prefer that they not be rebuilt and instead remain as they are as a reminder of the stupid, thoughtless things people do. In my concern over the Bamiyan Buddhas I’m not downplaying the many other horrible crimes the Taliban committed, I just happen to have an interest in cultural history and find the Greco-Buddhist art of the 6th Century very intriguing.

In the local hardware store this am. Evidently there was a big event just down the street at the Hampshire Hills Sports Club last night. 3500 people and they took every spare cop and firefighter in the area, not to mention bulldozing in a couple spare exits roads so nobody would be inconvienced (permits? who needs permits?).

Anyways, this old buck who works at the store (i would sayhe is 75) starts this story that some lady comes in just before closing with a full fur coat, heels, black cocktail dress and askes where the Hamphire Hills Club is.

The old buck proceeds to tell her to go to next intersection, turn left, go a quarter mile and turn left at the light.

the ladys says "No that cannot be right" and walks away.Some local listening to this discussion says "Democrat eh?"

A third says "Ahup" as the old man smiles. the rest of us laugh and go back to shopping.

Up in New Hampshire you can tell the out of town Democrats. They discard the facts if it disagrees with their perception... :>)

"The buddhas and the frescoes inside weren’t just "someone’s religious idols" but represented a very interesting period in world history when there was an unusual intersection of Asian, European and Middle Eastern ideas."

They were destroyed precisely BECAUSE they were someone's religious idols, not as an art critique.

I’m not sure I get your point about the Taliban because I see them as a perfect – if extreme - example of exactly what goes wrong when one mixes religious ideology into politics.

You mean like when Democrats (Hillary, Gore, Clinton, etc.) go to southern Baptist churches and pretend to be black preachers? You seem to be equating Al Gore with the Taliban. And why aren't the "progressives" denouncing "Reverend" Jackson, who constantly mixed politics with religion?

I don't want religion mixed with politics either, but I find it a stretch (and that's being very polite) to equate politicians who court the evangelical vote with the Taliban. And I say this as a flaming agnostic.

This is why I try to stay out of political arguments. Too often it ends up with people misinterpreting each others' points and attacking strawmen.

IMO when a politician believes that government should impose their on others, those beliefs cease to be a purely religious matter and enter the realm of politics. Opposing such a person is perfectly consistent with supporting the separation of church and state.

Ogg, I don't think we need fewer political arguments, I think we need more *civil* political arguments.

Anyway, for what it's worth, I think Huckabee has done Romney a tremendous favor by taking over the evangelical vote with a shamelessly Christian angle. It will cost Romney votes, but Romney has gone from being compared with the Taleban (and he has to have been wondering, "why doesn't Harry Reid ever have to deal with this?") to looking like a Unitarian by comparison.

But it's still a very close race for the Republicans. I think Huckabee will hit some serious speed bumps in the non-evangelical states (New Hampshire coming right up), and Romney and McCain will get on the scoreboard (Romney's already there after Wyoming), while Giuliani and Thompson sweat it out while waiting for Super Tuesday. Ron Paul needs an early upset to get into the race in a serious way (Duncan Hunter, we never knew thee.)

Obama's victory, however, was critical, because it seriously hurt Clinton's momentum. Clinton had been doing well because of the perception that she was going to win, which produces a self-reinforcing cycle of special interest groups supporting her in exchange for later political favors. Now that it's not 100% clear that she's going to win, the fair weather fans are running for shelter and the level of her support is in serious question. Obama is popular, good-looking, articulate, and represents youth and change. Hillary does not. And Edwards has too many internal contradictions to really gain traction--the super-rich trial lawyer looking out for the little guy may work in inner-city courtrooms, but not in the polls.

For what it's worth, there is one easy prediction: Richardson for the VP slot. He doesn't have enough strength for the prime position, but he would be a critical ally in the battle for the Southwest, especially Arizona and Nevada (both big swing states), and what's more, the other candidates don't hate him like they hate each other. Right now I'd say he's running for VP, and doing a right fine job.

DId anyone happen to watch the NH focus group last night? Former Hil supporters who turned on her like wounded prey. My God, there were 4 timid women supporters in the back, almost afraid to raise their hands. There was not only blood in the water, there were body parts on the floor. Those NH women EVISCERATED Hil. It was a sight to behold. It stricly in response to the debate. "Same old, same old" "Too defensive when she didn't have to be." I wonder how many other women in NH will swing this way. As an old yellow dog Dem, forced out due to the sad, sald lack of talent and vision in the Dem party, I am hoping beyond hope that Thompson is playing some smart southern boy strategy here. I guess I can live with anyone but Hil and Huck. After all, I lived through Nixon, Carter, Ford, Reagan, HillBill and the Bushes. If Carter didn't take us down, I doubt anyone else can. Well, maybe Hil. She kinda scares me.

anyone know how to switch one's phone number to route through some 3rd world shithole @$18 a minute and get half the proceeds. I could pay off the note on the house by tuesdays vote. Sweet!

The phones here in NH are jumping off the hook. This morning I got backed up in traffic for all the hillary folks heading for the command bunker via a rotary.

These fools do not get it. To get elected in NH, you have to press the flesh, and more importantly, show you want to help the people.This means come to the town landfill and help unload cars while pressing the flesh. I could have used some help as I was cleaning out the basement.

I do wonder who Casey would be supporting for President. I'll bet he's currently a big Huckabee fan. Ending income tax--that's some sweet™ cash-back™! And besides that, he's got that income tax form that he's been intending to™ get around to filling out soon™--but if Huckabee gets elected, maybe he wouldn't have to fill it out! Sweet™.

2 akubi,On the Koi-boy's (thats a type of fish) "Don't hate Casey Serin" blog, there is a loony-tunes scenario going on where someone who was in love with Casey, from afar, is headed for Sacremento to save Casey's wife from a 650 lb Zombified admirer.I guess even Zombies know that Casey has no Brain to eat.

TK - Don't know if it will be the Dean Scream or not. I have to think it was scripted and a desparate attempt to soften the image. As was the scripted phone call to Bill during "his" campaigning. I have to admit, though, it would be fun to watch Bill continuously take over the microphone during a Hillary presidency. But gawd, I loathe her. I'm capable of voting for anyone but her. I'd even go back to my lifelong Dem voting pattern if I saw an actual thought or talent in the pool. Haven't seen it yet.

Ginormous post a'brewin'. many things happening. i'm having trouble finding verification of everything i 'know' but cannot tell yet. Gee, just like old times. near as I can tell Arnold is trying to do a secret deal with the teachers union before the really bad news and they aren't buying. scuttlebutt is prop 91 is still doing okay in the polls and that really screws about 6 billion more out of their plans.