When Fifa decided to expand the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams in a 16-group tournament on Tuesday, the worry from many soccer associations was not the World Cup itself – but, rather, how they’d get there.

Money makes the World Cup go round: more teams means more cash | David Conn

Read more

With 211 nations going for 48 spots, how can Fifa implement a qualifying system that will distribute a fair number of places for one confederation body without alienating another? More, in this case, may not necessarily mean better: an increase in berth allocation will also start a bidding war among continents.

It’s a monumental task that will forever change the nature of the World Cup qualifying process – and when it comes to the Americas and its 45 members, the stakes could not be higher.

South America currently has four-and-a-half World Cup places, while Concacaf, which represents North and Central America as well as the Caribbean, has only three-and-a-half from 35 members. Europe’s Uefa currently has 13 places for 55 teams, plus the additional spot for Russia, who will host 2018’s tournament.

As a result of Tuesday’s decision and the increase in teams, it is estimated that Concacaf and Conmebol would receive six and six-and-a-half places for 2026, but the official decision will not be made until May.

Martyn Ziegler (@martynziegler)

Fifa members close to consensus on distribution of new World Cup places - final decision on that likely in May pic.twitter.com/h4MhRpIpQZ

“There is a proposal from Gianni Infantino to merge the Conmebol and Concacaf qualifiers,” said Laureano Gonzalez, president of the Venezuelan Football Association, talking to sports daily Meridiano last week. “This can work if they gave us more places. Right now, between the two confederations we have seven, plus two half places,” said Gonzalez, who is also Conmebol’s vice-president. “If this went up to 14, similar to what Europe has for more or less the same number of teams, the idea would catch on the continent.”

Late on Tuesday evening, Victor Montagliani, Concacaf president and Fifa’s vice president contradicted Gonzalez’s statement by declaring the merger might not be a realistic solution. “Conmebol and Concacaf will maintain separate qualifiers,” he told Spanish-speaking radio Futbol de Primera. “Conmebol is Conmebol and Concacaf is Concacaf. We have other events that will allow for both confederations to come together but it won’t be for the qualifiers.”

Montagliani appeared confident but his responsibilities lie solely within Concacaf and not with South America, therefore the possibility of a merger could still be a real option if Conmebol believes it can benefit their members.

There is a strong possibility that the 2026 World Cup will be hosted in North America: Concacaf nations are preparing to launch a two-nation bid out of Mexico, Canada and the United States. The idea to merge Conmebol and Concacaf could be supported by the notion that in 2026, Fifa would want to have as many members from those two confederations in the tournament as possible.

So what are the advantages and disadvantages of a merger? Who benefits and who suffers? First, we need to assume that Conmebol and Concacaf will combine for 14 berths, and if this is the case then South American nations have an overwhelming advantage.

If we look at the top teams from each body, and use last year’s Copa America Centenario as a barometer, we can see the major difference in quality. Argentina, Colombia and champions Chile clearly showed the gap between them and their Concacaf counterparts, USA, Mexico and Costa Rica. USA were embarrassed by Messi and Argentina in the semi-finals and lost 4-0, while Chile demolished Mexico 7-0 in their quarter-final match. Brazil and Uruguay, meanwhile, who did not enter last summer’s tournament with their strongest squads and were knocked out early, are currently first and second for Russia qualifiers.

Do South American World Cup qualifiers put the Champions League to shame?

Read more

In addition, South American teams at the lower end of the spectrum such as Peru, Venezuela and Bolivia have much more international experience than nations like Guatemala, El Salvador and Haiti. These countries could find an easier path to the World Cup.

Aesthetically, we would also lose something. South American matches have always been the most exciting qualifiers, a perfect mix between skill and passion. From Peru’s tumultuous relationship with Chile in the Pacific classic, to one of the most exciting rivalries in world soccer when Brazil faces Argentina, Conmebol has always given fans an entertaining show. A merger would banish all of that.

But the quality of South America’s teams are exactly why Concacaf might see the merge as a pro. By combining with Conmebol, Central American and Caribbean nations can improve and develop the quality of their game by playing against tougher opposition. It may take longer to raise standards, but at least the quality of competition within the qualifiers will improve.

Using European countries like Iceland and Albania as an example and their performances at the European Championship, raising the level of competition as well as a busier calendar (teams like Bahamas and the US Virgin Islands haven’t played a competitive match since March 2015) can help certain teams become a stronger squad.

Bigger countries like Mexico and the United States could benefit from regular matches against South American teams who can help them prepare them better for the bigger stage. In 2006, Australia left Oceania and joined the Asian Football Confederation for better competition. They soon became a top four member alongside Japan, South Korea and Iran. All qualified to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Additionally, the popularity of World Cup qualifiers in the US could also increase, thanks to new and attractive opposition in American territory. There is something rather appealing about Gabriel Jesus playing in Columbus on a cold night in November.

The argument for or against the merger depends on its structure and how the berths will be allocated, but until then, not much can be done. Will Conmebol-Concacaf be divided into mini-groups, or will it be one giant table? Will some skip the first round, and will we have a playoff system? How will Caribbean teams or weaker South American nations take advantage of the format?

Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain. The merge will revolutionize the competitive nature in the Americas. For better or worse.