Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Comments

Liz

Hmmm. My two favorite people up top and in the right order.

Jacosta

Politifact.com has just released some interesting details about some of Bachmann’s recent statements/claims and out of 24 important news-making “facts”, it was discovered that 17 of them were false, while only one was actually true. While I love her being in the race, and see her being a serious Conservative contender – she needs to get her facts straight or else she’s doomed quickly!

But, we’re trying to get Obama OUT! Do we want to try to put someone up against him on the Conservative side that either matches him or is worse on blunders, missteps, and outright falsehoods? Don’t get me wrong, I love Michele Bachmann – but, now I’m having serious doubts about her effectiveness! I think that she could be better groomed as a VPOTUS rather than a POTUS! The liberal MSM would have a field-day with her mouth and play it all up….giving Obama a better chance to get re-elected. I believe that a Romney/Bachmann or a (Jeb) Bush/Bachmann ticket would work the best…even though J.B. won’t run.

Whodat

The last two Bush presidents had great legacies: One gave us Clinton, after only 4 “Read My Lips” years and the other’s legacy was Obomb, the socialist, big spending, super-liberal, Wright-worshiping, apologizing-for-America scum bag. So, what do you think a third Bush would leave as his legacy and do you really think anyone is ever going to give a Bush another try? Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeze. We are stupid, but even monkeys can learn some things!

Alaina

I’m not advocating that we elect a liar, exaggerator or whatever term you want to use. My point is that most people don’t follow politics as closely as we do and they tend to vote on what sounds good… hence why Obama was elected.

I’m not particularly thrilled about our options… I’m worried that this is just another 1996. The only candidate in the mix that I even remotely like is Cain, but I’m still not 100% sold on him.

Romney – As I’ve said many times, his record doesn’t match his rhetoric. There’s not a chance that I’ll vote for him in the primaries.

Bachmann – I really irritated me when she did her rebuttal to the rebutral of the State of the Union. Doing your own thing is fine, but she takes it to the extreme and, although we need someone who is strong enough to make changes, they still have to play the game of politics to get anything accomplished.

Gingrich – The guy can’t even manage a campaign team… not to mention his personal history… I was disgusted by Clinton and I’m not going to be hypocritical and let it slide with him. Although, I would pay top dollar to see him debate Obama.

Santorum – The guy lost his last Senate race by a landslide. How egotistical do you have to be to think you could be elected President when your own district won’t even vote for you. Plus, he was kind of a jerk during a Q&A at CPAC 2009.

Paul – I like some of his ideas, but he’s a little too extreme for me.

Pawlenty – Just not memorable… the first time I heard he speak, he literally put the guy sitting next to me asleep and we were sitting in the front row. I like him and would vote for him, but he’s just not charismatic enough to stand a chance against Obama.

Huntsman – Don’t know enough about him, but I keep hearing “liberal lite” associated with his name so that’s quite a turn off.

Cain – I’m 110% convinced that he has the “Executive” experience to do a good job, but I need to be convinced that he can play the political game. I know people say that he doesn’t have a shot becuase he’s never been in politics, but I haven’t bought into that yet. Plus, I think he could hold his own in a debate with Obama.

Jacosta

Alaina – “Romney – As I’ve said many times, his record doesn’t match his rhetoric.” Let’s see, he governed “pro-life” in every instance…and always came down on the side of traditional marriage between one man and one woman as well. The only issue that some people (Conservatives) are having with Romney is the State health care thingy.

But, for those deep-hearted Conservatives (like myself who were once not happy with what seemed to appear as the model for ObamaCare) who have studied what he tried to accomplish vs what the final outcome of the law became, are now content that Romney is a well-qualified Conservative to take back our Country away from the Liberal one in the Oval Office!

Whodat

Were you ever out on a date with someone, but secretly wishing you were going out with someone else?

Even at this date, I believe that most of us are not too pleased with anyone we’ve met so far, but we’ve got our eye on a few others and just hoping we get their phone number.

The Iowa poll was a poll-on-hold, pending more potential dance partners of higher interest.

Huntsman already up to 2%? Oh boy!

And, Ron Paul at 7%? Evidently, they only let his supporters vote once…

Promise Kept

Whodat, evidently you’ve only read the article and NOT the detailed question portion of the poll.

With only 14% decided at this point, I’m not sure what kind of bragging right this gives to the front-runners:

Is your mind made up to support [candidate named as first choice] or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?
–
14 Mind is made up
–
69 Could be persuaded
–
3 Not sure
14 No first choice candidate

Check out Paul’s standings among the favorable/unfavorable columns, where he beat Romney. And when you can, watch Ron Paul’s appeal to his supporters for a better understanding of how he perceives his position in this race: http://youtu.be/HHybC0feMLM

http://deleted JoeW

Long way to go boys, Romney still has time to get 1 or 2 more flip flops in before the primary vote.

David Kaiser, Editor

Oh, I agree Joe, but trying to predict the course of events in a political campaign is like trying to keep track of Bill Clinton mistresses.

There are too many variables, and a lot of them go unseen!

Alaina

Now that’s funny.

pdiddy

if bachmann wins the nomination we are guaranteed four more years of obama, she has no resume and no shot

David Kaiser, Editor

Starting in 1980, there have been eight Iowa Caucuses.

In three of them, the winner ran unopposed on the Republican side.

Of the five remaining contested GOP caucuses, only twice has the winner gone one to take the nomination.

In the other three, the eventual nominee winner finished second, third, and fourth.

On the Democratic side, there have been seven contested Iowa races starting in 1980, and the winner of Iowa has secured the Democratic nomination five of those seven times.

My take is that Iowa is not all its cracked up to be for Republican candidates, especially with the wild card that is New Hampshire that follows right behind it.

Alaina

I completely agree

Brian H

So what will people say if Romney wins Iowa? He can make numerous excuses if he loses Iowa to her but she is probably finished if she loses to him in Iowa. As you have said, Kaiser, she has numerous advantages for this state. Yet, Romney is still ahead of her in the poll. Kinda hard to knock a guy for being first in the poll, is it not?

David Kaiser, Editor

If Romney wins Iowa, I think he sweeps to the nomination.

Alaina

Rudy was ahead in almost every (if not every) poll by a comfortable margin this time 4 years ago and look what happened to him.

Not that I’m inclined to vote for her, but if she continues to do well in debates and effectively gets her name out there, I think she has Iowa in the bag.

Anyone know what the stats are for NH.

David Kaiser, Editor

I found this poll from the New Hampshire Journal published June 11 for the 2012 primary:

Despite Romney being the leader this time 4 years ago, he lost NH to McCain.

To further the point that polls at this point don’t mean much, Giuliani was tied for second and we all know how he ended up…

David Kaiser, Editor

Right, but look at his number in that poll – 28% – and look at his final number in the primary in 2008. It was 30%.

So while he lost, his numbers stayed relatively stable. Romney was known in New Hampshire because he was a New England governor. This time around he’s more well known.

Alaina

True, but I think there are so many candidates that are unknown at this point that it could change as the people of NH get to know them.

Romney was well known in 2008, but McCain won the NH primary 2000 and Giuliani was well known too. Huckabee was an unknown (until he won Iowa) and came in third.

I just think it’s way too early to tell with this particular field.

David Kaiser, Editor

I agree that its early, but Huckabee finished a distant third in 2008 and Giuliani made only a late, furtive effort to run in New Hampshire.

I just don’t see anyone like McCain in the race that would take from Romney, especially if Romney runs from the economy side and less so the social side. Romney was at his best in 2008 when he stopped trying to look like a social conservative and pushed his business acumen.

Alaina

I’m trying to be optimistic about Romney NOT winning the nomination…

http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

Romney isn’t really leading the poll. The margin of error is 4.9%. He and Bachmann are basically tied.

Troy La Mana

Romney doesn’t have a chance in Iowa. If he loses New Hampshire he is finished.

David Kaiser, Editor

And he knows it, which is why he won’t run hard there.

In 2008, Huckabee won Iowa and got shellacked in New Hampshire. Romney finished a competitive second to John McCain. Tell me, who beats Romney in New Hampshire this time around?

Troy La Mana

Without knowing the dance card with certainty, I would say he should win. The only way that doesn’t happen is if a true Conservative catches fire. I’m thinking, as of now, Romney 1st (but the margin of victory will be a lot closer then expected), Bachmann second, Cain third and Pawlenty comes in fourth. The rest of the pack will be trailing far behind with a few early withdrawals within a week of the primary.

Alaina

Is it any shocker that someone born in Iowa and living in a neighboring state would be in a dead heat with a guy from Massachusetts?

Troy La Mana

What does that say about Romney’s campaign when a new candidate to the race is tied with him?

I guess all that time raising money is doing squat for him.

Maybe Romney got Wallace to call her a flake?

David Kaiser, Editor

Once again, Troy swings and misses.

Mitt Romney hasn’t started running ads in Iowa yet, and Michelle Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty have just started running ads. And, as Alaina points out, Bachmann was born in Iowa.

Combine that with the fact that Iowa leans towards conservative candidates (see Huckabee in 2008), with the fact that most people would view Bachmann as more conservative than Romney, and you have a pretty clear reason for the poll.

In truth, I don’t even know it makes sense for Romney to make an effort in Iowa for two reasons:

The first reason is that he spent *millions* in Iowa in 2008 and lost to Mike Huckabee by nearly 10 points.

The second is laid out in my comment below in regards to Iowa and how poorly it’s performed as an indicator of who eventually win the GOP nomination.

There are several articles online that speculate that Romney will either go small in Iowa, or not go at all.

So in a sense I guess you are right Troy, the fundraising is doing him squat in Iowa. Because he’s not really spending much of it there!

Troy La Mana

Any sane person would view Bachmann as more conservative than Romney. People from Iowa know a fake when they see one.

Jacosta

Troy = You also might as well be saying…”Any sane person would view Bachmann as more conservative than Reagan or Bush I. People from Iowa know a fake when they see one.” After all, Troy, ANYONE who changes their mind from liberal to conservative principles is always fake in your mind, right? And, check out which companies/organizations received earmarks while Bachmann has been serving!!! Uhm – Tony…she also has some not too conservative standards! HELLO? Guess they view Romney a Conservative since he hasn’t done any commercials!

Personally, a Romney/Bachmann ticket will be the best!!!

David Kaiser, Editor

Troy, thanks for repeating what I said.

Care to defend your first statement, or are you just ignoring that?

Troy La Mana

Which view is in opposition?

David Kaiser, Editor

“What does that say about Romney’s campaign when a new candidate to the race is tied with him?