In another year and a half there won't be any more Apple desktop computers. There will only be powerful tablets that communicate to the Apple TV screens. The tablets will have wireless remote keyboards for those that need to type.

Data will be stored in the cloud instead of within the iPads.

My Predictions;

Apple will announce Apple TV sets in May.

By the end of 2013 Apple will sell iPads that are as powerful as their laptops.

You have no idea the poor quality of contrarianism we have had to put up with while you've been preoccupied elsewhere!!

Whew, now back on topic. And of course, we have to address the obvious elephant in the room, let in by our dear beloved curmudgeon - marketshare.

While marketshare obviously is an important part of the equation it is just one part, and the other is....wait for it... profitability.

Yes, I used the p word slapppy. I know that upsets you. But let's take this back to elementary school my dear Slapson!

If a fruit vendor is selling oranges to his customers at 10 cents a bushel (50 oranges on average in a bushel, just in case you had no idea), but the oranges could be old, diseased, smaller than average, as well as decent sized and healthy, and another vendor sells his oranges for 10 cents a half bushel, but ensures that his suppliers give him first pick and A grade oranges, that means his customers are going to be happier with their fewer but better quality oranges. He sells fewer oranges, but has happy, regular customers and a slowly increasing group of customers. The other vendor sells more oranges, but his customers are less happy and see less value in what they are getting and he doesn't make as much money from his sales.

So while the first vendor is selling more oranges per purchase, and his volume of oranges sold is greater, the second is making more money per purchase, which gives him the ability to improve his shop, and diversify into kumquats because he thinks the customers will enjoy them as well. Meanwhile the first vendor finds that while he is slowly losing customers to the other one, he has discovered that he can sell his lower quality, cheaper oranges for animal feed, which keeps his sales up and the animals are less fussy about the oranges.

Between my wife & kids, we have 3 iMacs, and 3 MacBooks (one doesn't get used extensively anymore).

We also have 3 iPads, 6 iPhones, 2 iTouches, 3 iPods and 4 Nanos.

So thats 6 MacOS machines, and 18 iOS devices.

While it is true that some of each group are eliminating themselves through redundancies, thats happening more in the iOS category so far. I really couldn't see eliminating either category anytime soon, if given a choice.

To continue your naval analogy, in any fleet, there are capital ships, and far more numerous support vessels. iOS devices, by their nature and intent, will be the more numerous.

All very much to Jobs' vision, and Apple's grand design...

Hey... Any chance you'd like to sell me that not used very much MacBook? I am very much interested in buying a used MacBook but find it hard to afford. Please let me know!

There will always be desktop computers. There will be desktop computers in 2050.

Not if I have anything to say about that.

ARM can't hope to match Intel's laptop chips, much less its desktops.

You can argue there will be desktop computers - just like there will always be some kind of mainframe computer - there's a need for that sort of thing.

But if you are arguing that every consumer will need a desktop computer - I suggest that you are already wrong.

only 80% of US households have at least one home computer according to the Census Bureau - which leaves over 61 million people without. These numbers rise and fall percentage-wise as you move from country to country - better in parts of Europe, worse in other countries of course.

"Smart" mobile devices are rapidly replacing the basic functions of the desktop computer world-wide - especially in lower economic strata countries where the mobile devices are much cheaper than regular computers, and yet deliver the majority of needs that are required for average consumer use: internet access, email, filesharing, music, photography and some kind of video.

ARM doesn't need to "match" Intel's chipsets they just have to supply chipsets that deliver to the majority average needs. And that's what they do.

So yes - there will always be desktop computers - just not taking up space in every household, sucking energy and requiring the user to manage it with an esoteric and rapidly aging interface.

Anecdotally, I was visiting my local Apple Store recently, it was the busiest store in the mall, and they were doing an iPad workshop - that looked like an AARP meeting with a couple of younger folks thrown in for good measure. People who are by virtue of age and and inclination less likely to embrace new technology were lively, chattering away about their favorite apps with each other and the workshop leader - and there were 12-14 packed around the table for the workshop. A number of them (as I listened in, waiting for my Genius appointment) were actually replacing their desktop PC with an iPad, and apparently delighted to do so.

In another year and a half there won't be any more Apple desktop computers. There will only be powerful tablets that communicate to the Apple TV screens. The tablets will have wireless remote keyboards for those that need to type.

Data will be stored in the cloud instead of within the iPads.

My Predictions;

Apple will announce Apple TV sets in May.

By the end of 2013 Apple will sell iPads that are as powerful as their laptops.

You don't think Dell or HP wouldn't kill for the fat profits Apple gets off their Macs?

That doesn't matter at all. All that matters is the number sold. And when Apple surpasses everyone else in number sold, all that will matter is how many there are being used, regardless of if they're still running Windows 95.

Official slapppy color (#514999 for 'slappp') and everything, so you know it's right.

Seriously some of us have followed Apple since the Apple I days when Byte magazine was real paper. This is truly amazing. It is even more amazing that an iPhone or iPad can run circles around most computers I've ever owned. Apples resurrection has been nothing less than a shock.

I was reading this on MacRumors yesterday. It is amazing and the Mac sales are going to trend up now in iOS coat tails I am sure. Just watch that iPad line go higher than them all soon. All good for AAPL in 2012. Come on Tim a 5:1 split ... Psychological inducement ...

Many Apple people have said that they expected the iPad to be a success, but had no idea at all that it would sell in the numbers it has. It is nice to be surprised like that.

It should come as no surprise that sales volume (number of products) of devices costing hundreds of dollars exceed those which cost thousands of dollars. Likewise, it should come as no surprise that price is a factor in sales in general. Perhaps Apple will take a lesson from this and price their computers more in line with hardware of similar capability running other operating systems. It just could come as a surprise to them that they would sell more of them and making a greater profit, even if the margins per product sold were not as great. Greater market share would also allow the amortizing of R&D costs across more products, thereby reducing the R&D cost component per unit sold which does positively contribute to margins.

Any potential implication gleaned from this post is meaningless because of one simple thing:

Tim Cook loves the Mac.

I'd say it's meaningless because of the fact you could also say that the Mac sold more in its latest 3 years than it did in the first 20 years.

There's also the points covered about relative product costs (Apple didn't make a $500 Mac until the Mini in 2007, notice the uptick at the 23 mark).

Also, more people buy phones than computers, the relative market sizes are about 5:1 (1.5b phones vs 300m computers) so if you get the same share in both, the phones should far outnumber the computers.

It doesn't matter, they are all on very steep climbing trajectories so no worries from any product line.

In one fell swoop Apple would instantly make all the other PC makers look more stodgy, antiquated and pedantic than they already do! I mean really, cables are so 1992,

And, only Apple has the "b*lls" to do it, too!

Best

P.S. "Anyone who uses the word, 'pedantic....' is pedantic....". I got that from someone on these boards! Made me laugh!

Christopher,

I don't know what you are thinking, but there is no one in the rest of the market in a hurry to kill off the tower. Sure, laptop sales are the market leader and will continue to grow relative to tower sales, but there will be a market for towers, without regard to the installed OS, for the foreseeable future.

If you apply the "logic" that Mac Pros only represent a small percentage of Apple revenue and kill them off, the next step is "iMacs only represent a small portion of Apple revenue" and so on. I don't think that makes a great deal of sense, but you may be of a different opinion.

It would be a shame if Apple were to drop the Mac Pro.

This is not a "Nikon is slow delivering what I want, I'm going to switch to Canon" type of discussion. If Apple kills the Mac Pro there will be people who will have to turn elsewhere, but not out of choice.