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In June, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was above zero for the second time this year. The monthly index came in at +0.14, an increase from its upward revised value of
–0.04 in May. After falling to –0.32 in February, the index increased in each of the next four
months, with June at its highest value in two years. The rising values of the monthly index
mean that the three-month moving average index, CFNAI-MA3, has been increasing as
well. In June, the CFNAI-MA3 came in at –0.03, increasing from May’s upward revised
value of –0.17. While this was the second consecutive improvement in the CFNAI-MA3,
it extends the streak of negative values to 23 consecutive months. The recent increase in
the CFNAI-MA3 indicates that the national economy is improving, and its value near zero
suggests that the pace of growth is not far from the long-run historical average. Index values
above zero, if sustained, signal increased inflationary pressures over the coming year.