Friday, May 14, 2010

Perdue's numbers

Bev Perdue's approval numbers hit negative ground for the first time last May when the legislature came to town, and a year later they haven't shown any signs of improvement. 50% of voters in the state disapprove of the job she's doing compared to 29% who give her good marks.

Perdue's numbers with Republicans (13/72) and independents (31/51) are poor but there's really nothing unusual about that. There are very few politicians drawing any crossover support in this highly polarized political climate, and independent voters don't like much of anyone.

Perdue's biggest problem is, as it has always been, a lack of support from voters within her own party. Just 39% of Democrats approve of the job she's doing with 34% disapproving. For sake of comparison Kay Hagan's at a 55/19 spread within her party and Barack Obama's at 78/17. If she wants to get her overall numbers to a respectable level she's somehow going to have to earn the same kind of support from within her party that those other folks are receiving.

If there's something positive Perdue can take from her numbers it's that in the Triangle, where she gets the most exposure, voters are almost evenly divided on her with 38% approving and 41% disapproving. Some of that is because the Triangle is more Democratic than the state as a whole but her comparative popularity there can't all be chalked up to that. Clearly voters who are more aware of what she's up to are more charitable toward her, and the challenge just becomes bringing up that level of visibility.

The state continues to be pretty evenly divided on how it plans to vote for the legislature this year. 44% say they are leaning toward the Republicans while 42% would choose a Democrat if the election was today.

Perdue didn't come across very well to the public in her first legislative session, and she's still paying the price with her approval numbers. The arrival of the short session gives her an opportunity to make voters rethink their initial perceptions of her during a time where she may be in the spotlight to a greater extent than usual.