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Tuesday, March 11

Written By: Scott HetskoIf I wasn't living it, I'd find it hard to believe! All the data continues to point at a real significant snow storm for Rochester tomorrow. It will be really interesting to watch the temperatures drop between 6am and noon. Heavy snow, combined with NNE wind gusts near 35 mph will cause widespread blowing and drifting of snow.14 to 18" of snow with lake help looks likely although a few town will probably reach 20" by early Thursday. This will be the exception, not the rule. There's little doubt in my mind that this one will end up being the biggest snow storm for the area of the season. What a way to wrap up the worst Winter in at least 10 years!Have fun and more importantly, BE SAFE!

That particular guidance suite is always too high with snowfall amounts. As a rule of thumb, scale it down by two thirds to get something more reasonable. And make sure to discount the outlier-ish looking members.

I am excited and nervous at the same time about this storm. Driving a 10-wheeler with 17' of plow and wing in front of you during ZERO visibility is VERY challenging to say the least. If things come together as they appear they are going to this will be as close to a blizzard as you can get without actually calling it a blizzard. I know it doesn't mater if it is 6' or 20" with that type of wind, visibility will be TRUELY ZERO in open areas.

As long as OBS report 3 or more consecutive hours of 35+ mph gusts we can call it a blizzard, regardless of headlines. The fact that the thumb of Lower Michigan currently has a Wind Advisory despite being well north of the storm track might be a bit telling in regards to future headlines here.

Airport temp is beginning to crash, down 6 degrees over the past hour.

It was VERY windy in Hamlin during the first lake enhanced storm this season that dropped over a foot. That storm was NOT EVEN CLOSE to as intense as this LP is going to be. Winds could make travel IMPOSSIBLE tomorrow evening in northern towns.

If you leave early enough in the morning I imagine you could get yourself far enough east to avoid any major complications on your trip. Things aren't supposed to get too bad until later in the morning.

So I decided to come home a day early. Thankfully. When we got to the airport they had already canceled our original flight for tomorrow. More than 24 hours in advance. So thanks to all of you because its your predictions that convinced me to cut short our trip to Disney by a day!! You guys are awesome!!

If this storm pans out I don't see why we wouldn't go past 100 for the year. I'm sure this isn't the last inch of snow that is coming. I've already resigned myself to the sad fact I won't see a blade of grass until well into April.

And then we have ol' Hammerin' Hank over at Accuweather who rode his beloved GFS and its scrambly chaotic solutions until it caved to the more consistent Euro. Then he went off about how the Euro was all over the place and how the GFS had the best handle the whole time. Not the first time he's done whacko things like this. Makes me wonder what he's doing behind closed doors to remain employed...

The Weatherguy Troll is out again. I have no idea what he is talking about regarding blizzard warnings. I barely follow KW anyway. Since the storm is really starting to get it's act together, probably more accurate to look at radar trends and short term guidance?

I am 35 years old and it is only the second blizzard warning ever issued before the storm was here during my life span. The super storm of 1993 was the other. March of 1999 blizzard was issued after the fact. Pretty cool!!

I don't know about 1966, 1977 under forecasted NO warning, 1999 under forecasted NO warning. 1993 might be the only blizzard forecasted with this lead time. I am NOT I say NOT comparing this potential blizzard to 1993.

It's all relative CCCC. I wouldn't know how to retrieve and read a model.Sure I can analyze climatology data and contribute to this blog... but that's just basic math and statistics for me. But model reading, you're an expert compared to me.

There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City shortly yes! Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't believe this...the NAM keeps spitting out ridiculously high snowfall numbers. The SREFs also hold firm. I think this speaks more to the insanity of these particular models than anything, but their persistence is a bit alarming. They have been known to hang on to high numbers until the bitter end, but the longer this goes on the more it makes me wonder.

John kucko posted a pic on twitter of Penfield wegmans out of bread. Really people you don't not have enough food in your house for a day or two at worst. Yes its a crazy amount of snow and conditions but we are not the south the roads will be clear by Thursday morning and life will go on.

One of the big problems with storms like this (and Scott just mentioned this on TV in fact) is that the plows may not be able to keep up with the rate of snowfall combined with the wind. So we may very well not be all clear by Thursday morning, and some side streets may be left largely untouched for a day or so.

Its not jyst sslt tgat clears the road but a combination of sslt traffic and sun. You don't always need or use salt when it is that cold. As Scott stated the worst of it winds down late tomorrow most roads will be clear and passable by Thurs morning timeframe. You do not need black pavement to have safe roads. And when using salt at that temperature with addition to breaks of sun in the PM roads with decent amounts of traffic a will clear.

"IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK."

I just had to listen to my roommate rant about how this storm is nothing but hype just because it's 44 degrees right now. Said he wouldn't be surprised if we got no snow at all. Usually he's pretty smart, but this was definitely one of his stupider moments -_-

I think the eventual changeover to all snow is going to hold off several hours longer than most forecasts indicate, but this isn't a big deal at all since only light amounts of QPF would be lost to rain. We would lose maybe a half inch of snow as a result.

Still real differences with snow projections and where will get the most. John's numbers 10-15 lower and particularly south while RC at 10 has 16-20 inches with higher possibly south. Interesting with different computer models showing different totals.

This thing is really cranking up to our west in Ohio. I think if we get the lake enhancement help areas north of thruway get at least 20 inches. Plus wind chill values tonight and tomorrow morning will be at least minus 10 degrees brutal!

I'm here. Kids let me sleep in a little which was nice as they are both home today as am i. My wife looked outside and said where is the snow? I told her it will be bad a little later. She is hoping to call in to work. Either way im not letting her drive to Newark at 11!. Even if she took my truck. I'm no weather expert more of a casual observer and level head. I say Mike diesel to live spot on twc around 7. If they r here it is going to be good.

Coating to half inch maybe now in farmington. Snow is picking up. I was hoping copy cat troll would recede back into his cave...if anyone posts with my name u will know its not me because I don't post a stupid things or innapropriate things etc. If anything sees out of character today ignore please. Its too bad cause I like many on here come on for more in depth info etc and these immature trolls are ruining it on a big storm day.