Visual shot of Cyclone "Ward" shows that the system has moved slightly to east.
And It's huge core cloud mass is strong from early morning to till now and it's growing as well.
Cyclone ward - past 12 hrs satellite loop, till 8:30pm IST.
Practically it has not moved anywhere.
JTWC and IMD predicted that the system will move west and cross the north-east coast of Srilanka around 6pm IST.. but this did not happen.
In fact visual evidence shows that it has slightly moved in North-east direction.
Will Cyclone Ward survive over open seas till 14-Dec-09, 6pm ??
OR will it move west? north-west? or North-east?
COLA model suggests that it'll move north-west to come near Tamilnadu and then move north-east.
EFS model suggests a west movement, skirting northern tip of Srilanka and dissipating over central TN coast.
?????

JTWC: warning 8:30pm IST.
---------------------------------
Almost same as previous warning.
131500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. A 131144Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND
CONVECTION DISPLACED 60 NM TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC WARD IS STILL LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU
24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 83.00 E, about 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of tomorrow, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around afternoon of 15th December, 2009. The system moved very slowly during past 12 hours and is also expected to move slowly for some more time.

Cyclone "Ward" is now a Depression.
With Huge cloud mass around its core.
Still its a very slow mover in south-west direction.
We still didn't believe that this system will die over Srilanka as suggested by both IMD and JTWC.

Very interesting GFS model prediction---------------------------------------------In fact COLA gfs model suggests that the system will weaken over the same place as it is now (2:30pm IST) and it'll emerge near the North Tamilnadu Coast on wednesday, 16-Dec-09.

According COLA GFS, that this system will never make landfall whether its over Srilanka on 13-Dec-09 or over North TN coast on 17-Dec-09... but it'll move North-east into Bay and then Die around 20-Dec-09.

IMD: warning 2:30pm IST
-----------------------------
Sub: Deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal.
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved southward and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 83.00 E, about 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around early morning of tomorrow, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around early morning of 15th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over south coastal Tamil nadu during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu for the subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours . Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures
Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea.

JTWC: warning 2:30pm IST
------------------------------
130900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING CONVECTION.
A 130057Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
WARD IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS
DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET

Yesterday's deep depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 83.00 E, about 320 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 360 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east-northeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around evening of today, the 13th December, 2009. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around noon of 14th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu during same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours . Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures

Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea.

As simple as that
Cyclone Warning for Next 12 Hours
[ Issued at 0815 hours on 13th December 2009 ]

WW 12-08 Signal Colour: Orange

(Issued by Early Warning Centre of the Department of Meteorology)

According to the zig-zag path of the tropical cyclone (WARD) in the Bay of Bengal has taken so far, there is a high possibility for that the system may move crossing or skirting the northern most eastern coast of Sri-Lanka by tonight or early tomorrow. (14th December)
As a result intermittent showers with very heavy rainfalls associated with strong revolving winds up to 80 Km/hr will occur in the Northern, North Central, North western, Eastern and Uva provinces
Showers may spread to the other areas too.
Fairly strong winds are also expected over the island.

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sset said...
What caused/causes cyclone to loose steam? Is it due to (a)opposing westerlies? (b)unfavorable sea temperatures? (c)lack of trees/deforestation/global warming? (d) Can this be reversed just like man can induce rain using seeding, weak cyclone can be forced to make landfall into water starved Tamil Nadu? It is quite interesting to note that all weather models predicted vigorous rains for TN during December (EL NINO, wet MOJO) but nature seems to defy all predictions. Last year we had cyclone NISHA, which provided strong rain for TN, but this year TN missed 2 cyclones - ALIYA and WARD. What explanation can be given for above?

7:16 PM
Anonymous said...
Dear isszet,
[1] As such the upper westerlies will not hamper (much) the growth of a cyclone, instead it will make it to recurve in NEly direction.
[2] Unfavourable sea surface temperature may be one of the reasons that it loses its moisture flux.
[3] Deforestation or felling of trees - NOTHING to do with the formation development of a cyclone.
However one must be bit cautious in answering global warming.
[4] Weather Modification has not been attempted any where in the world: that too on cyclones. Technology has not so much developed to capture a desired weather modification.
If we ruthlessly rupture the weather then it will become a WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION [WMD].
[5]Tropical weather is too tricky to be accureately modeled. However this will be over come very soon.

Will this Cyclone or Deep-Depression move in its predicted path?? So far it's history is bad.
It's a slow mover, so we can wait till 12pm IST for results.
Chennai and some area along Tamilnadu coast received some good long showers until early morning of 13-Dec-09.

JTWC: warning 5:30am IST
---------------------------
POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION, THE TRACK FOR TC
05S HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE TRACK SPEED HAS
BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ORGANIZATION TO TC 05B HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TO LLCC IS SLIGHTLY DIS-
PLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER OF THIS CONVECTION DUE TO A
LOW AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF TC 05B. LANDFALL WITH SRI LANKA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24,
WITH THE LLCC TRACKING INTO THE PALK STRAIT BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THERE IS NOT A GREAT
EXPECTATION FOR THE LLCC TO MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS SRI LANKA. THE REMNANTS OF THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA, AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET

JTWC: predicted path
---------------------------

IMD: warning & path, 2:30am IST
----------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a deep depression:
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest Bay of Bengal moved southwards and weakened into a deep depression over the same region. It lay centred at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, 12th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 83.50 E, about 350 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 450 km east-northeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of today, the 13th December, 2009. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around night of 13th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu during same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours . Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures
Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea.