You know something guys? i feel like just about everyone who posts on here knows more than me but didn't JB also have Frances going into the Carolinas at one time? In my opinion, When you place your forecast above that of the NHC's then that is pretty arrogant. That is my opinion and I will stand by it. Anyhow, we will just have to see what happens...in the mean time, this pretty much sucks!.

It just seems that this year has more systems forming but there really isn't. Last year we were up to Peter but that year it was pretty much active all season. This year it had only started getting active in August, so it has to make up for it. I wouldn't be surprised if we did get up to p again but then again the wave train and the waters are losing their energy, at least there's one thing good about the tropics!

That's the argument Accuweather is making... one other note on this the TPC discussion references the FSU superensemble models also doing this. during Ivan I can remember at least one reference by the NHC/TPC that remarked on how reliable that model had performed in forecasting Ivan.
The main argument is that many of the models sample from the tropical and subtropical regions only and do not register well at all what the temperate regions are doing.
With the gales from Ivan for example...those result from an interaction of Ivan and a high pressure area in the temperate zone.. It is this high that is supposed to block Ivan and push it back to the wsw on the weekend. It is this factor he says is not being properly weighed in the usual model runs that TPC is relying upon.
I don;t know but it makes good discussion fodder.
Don't be to harsh on Accuweather...I'm sure if they did not actually believe what they wrote, they certainly would not publically isswue such an outlook just to scare people.

Looking at the IR pics, Jeanne is very interesting to look at right now. To the right of her is a large area of convection that is not getting wrapped around Jeanne. Seems like if she was stronger, the convection would be pulled around the circulation. Even if Jeanne gets eaten by the mountains in the Dominican Republic, I wonder if this other area of convection will then develop.

The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.

Yep, and so did I...long tracking CV storms have a history of scaring the s--t out of Florida before pummelling Hattaras...(think Floyd & Isabel). This year is changing A LOT of those preconceived notions...that's for damn sure.

As far as JB, he nailed Alex & Gaston way before anyone...he likes going out on a limb and when he's on he's DEAD SOLID PERFECT. Unfortunately, he hasn't been that spot on with the biggies!

That can happen, the energy breaks off from the intial system and acts as the shortwave trough, this happened with Frances but it didn't really develop because of an unfavorable enviorment. That's a very good observation!

JB did argue for two days that Frances would go up the coast.
He is admittedly competing with NHC/TPC. Accuweather is after all a for profit corporation I think, contrasted with the NHC, There is money to be made in having a good track record of forecasting catastrophic weather event accurately I think

I think that, for whatever reason, the GFS has had a hard time this year forecasting the intensity of ridges and movement of troughs with relation to the tropical systems. This is in turn skews some of the other models because they use the GFS outlook as part of their forecasting. I'm pretty sure the European and Canadian models do not do this. With that said the forecasts have trended to bring systems too far north too soon. Charley never made it near as far north as was forecasted(though the trough that pulled him across the state was incredibly strong and rare for that time of year). Frances had been forecast for a while to make landfall around Daytona Beach-Cocoa Beach. When in reality she never made it that far north. Ivan had been forecast to pass over Jamaica and in between the Caymans and Cuba. That too did not materialize. I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems. Right now it appears that there is a wide open space off the coast of Florida for her to take, but she needs to get to there before the ridge inches back in. The last couple sat loops I checked it looked like the ridge has crept down as far south as about 22n and as far west as about 72w. This will change over the next few days, and how much it does depends on exactly where Ivan goes and how strong he is while he's travelling there.

Quote:
The NHC lost all credibility with me when they predicted a landfall of Tampa Bay area with Charley and stood by that prediction even when Charley was heading into Charlotte Harbour. The NHC even had SW Florida in fits over Ivan for a few days while there were people on this board who had the foresight to predict landfall in the Biloxi or Mobile area. Geesh.

I think you're confusing NHC with the news media talking heads. NHC had been warning SW Florida all along about Charley, with hurricane warnings in place right up until landfall. It was the news media which focused on Tampa Bay.
NHC didn't have anyone in fits over Ivan - only the TV/radio talkers, EOC folks, and rumor mongers who built everyone up into a frenzy over gasoline rationing and evacuation. What business do EOC and school boards have closing schools for the possibility of a hurricane 3 or more days away? NHC didn't cause any of that!

--------------------"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

I understand totally what you're saying but don't you think that the NHC is really getting all the information they have at their disposal and then putting out what they think is their best forecast at that given time? They warn that their projections can have large margins of errors and to not pay attention to one specific spot for landfall. Did they ever actually come out and say " It's hitting Tampa bay on the nose?' I know with Frances they never gave a specific landfall point until the final hours and they didn't with Ivan either. I know they had thier little line drawn through the cone area but the whole time the local forecasters here were saying" it's coming in at Vero Beach" the NHC was saying "its to early to speculate on an exact landfall point." I know cuz I was reading those NHC updates every six hours. People on this board did pick the right point of landfall for Ivan but In my opinion they are still making very educated guesses(sp). i don't mean to take anything away from anyone on here because I have heaps of respect for the people who post on here. I learn so much reading them but even with that being said in the end I''m sticking with the NHC. I feel on average you will always do better that way.

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!

One other idea about the models....the FSU Super hadn't even picked up on the MS/AL targetting until about 3 or 4 days out. I distinctly remember Clark on here hinting (cauz he can't say due to nondisclosures, etc) that the FSU Super was NOT forecasting anything west of Pensacola, despite what people were rumoring on the boards. Up until about 4 days out, it was still aiming around the Big Bend area, just like all the other models.

I think, in retrospect, none of the models handled how far west Ivan made it without making its northward turn. Many excellent Mets also didn't see the far westward movement. Once Ivan skated past Grand Cayman, with the eyewall mostly missing it, most of the models began to initialize aiming at MS/AL, and they verified pretty well.

The models are definitely getting better than they were in the past. The human factor, well, that's a different story than the models. I know more than a few people who kept swearing that Ivan was going to come through the Yucatan Gap and turn right into Tampa, or points just slightly north.

Now, Jeanne, well, that's another pickle....I'm going to keep the plywood handy, because I just get this feeling (Jeanne or not) that we're not done in Central Florida yet. Swear this has got something to do with my college graduation. Finally graduate and try to get a job, and all the hurricanes start coming at us....figures....

I don't have a real problem with Accuweather coming up with their own track. Using the models, I could probably come up with a forecast track that is nearly as accurate most of the time 5 days out. When it gets within the 48-72 hour window, the NHC has gotten very good. Anyway, I believe the Accuweather should clearly indicate that this is not the official track of the National Hurricane Center. Most people believe it is, then get confused when they see two different ones. This is more of an issue for local stations that use the Accuweather track, and don't tell the locals watching on TV. I'm not sure, but I think the Orlando Accuweather station (Channel 6?) went back to using the NHC track after Charley. I suspect they got complaints.

RevUp: The forecast path of Ivan on WEd-Fri had the 5 day line consistenly over the west central florida coast or adjacent waters,,,so we were all real jittery. I had to make business decisions on Friday after the 1:00 update and based on that I canceled my trip to Ft. Myers Monday and Pt.St Lucie Tuesday. Schools and Gov. Offices announced they were closed Monday and Tuesday. Turned out that all was well good for us bad for others...but I think you see the point

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