842
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region? Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning. Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region. Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now. Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.
An extensive fetch of mid and upper levelmoisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwavetrough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area. Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide. As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwavetrough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.
The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it. High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening. The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too. It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front. Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first. Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain. The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening. The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great. Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great. Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday. We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time. High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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