Wednesday, November 03, 2010

How well did I handicap?

So, a couple days ago I posted my election predictions, both on base numbers, and on key races.

Lets see how I did shall we?

First, the total numbers

+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate

+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house

I'm looking pretty good here actually. Not brilliant, but not bad.

As of this moment, it's +5 to the Republicans for senate, but could still end up +8. Colorado and Washington's senate races are exactly tied up, and it could be three weeks (not including law suits) before they are resolved. Also it will be at least two weeks before all the write in votes for Alaska are processed, but it looks like Lisa Murkowski will easily retain her seat.

These races are crucial. Murkowski was a republican in the last session and has been one her entire career, but she ran this race as an independent, and has indicated that she MAY choose to caucus with the democrats. If the dems retain the other two seats, I think it's possible. If they lose those seats I think Murkowski will stick with the Republicans. That would put things officially at 49-49-2 (the "independents" Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). In that circumstance, its entirely possible some democrats may defect and move to the Republican side of the chamber, throwing them control of the senate.

If it ends up 49-49 look for Manchin as a potential conversion either to Republican or to "independent". He's going to want to vote against Reid and Obama most of the time, and with Reid in control, that could get him punished.

On the house side, I was also pretty close; currently standing a +61 to the Republicans, with 11 races left to resolve, 9 of them most likely to go Republican. So I'm almost certainly going to make my +63, and it could go as high as +72 (though +69 or +70 is more likely).

Ok, specific predictions, how did I do?

I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:

Arkansas - Boozman

*California - Fiorina

*Colorado - Buck

*Connecticut - McMahon

Illinois - Kirk

Indiana - Coats

*Nevada - Angle

North Dakota - Hoeven

Penn - Toomey

* Washington - Rossi

West VA - Raese

Wisconsin - Johnson

Damn, missed one.... There were no real Republican losses, unless you count Murkowski, who is currently sitting as a republican, and may continue to do so. I'm counting CO and WA as wins for now, but as you'll note, I had them asterisked for a reason. The three I was pretty sure the Reps wouldn't get, they didn't.

The one thing I was surprised about was Manchin vs. Raese, but frankly I count him more as a push than a loss given theres a very good chance he's going to go "independent" or even switch parties entirely.

Onto the house... again I'll code the Republican pickups as red, the democratic retains as blue, and any dem pickups I'll code green.

First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:

Delaware AL - Carney

Louisiana 2nd - Richmond

I don't see either as iffy right now; but I'm pretty sure those are the only losses.

Got it in one.

Now, the iffys...

* Alabama 2 - Roby

* Arizona 7 - McClung

* California 47 - Tran

* Colorado 7 - Frazier

* Conn 5 - Caligiuri

* Idaho 1 - Labrador

* Indiana 2 - Walorski

* Kentucky 6 - Barr

* Minnesota 8 - Cravaack

* Missouri 4 - Hartzler

* North Carolina 2 - Ellmers

* North Carolina 7 - Pantano

* Penn 12 - Burns

* Rhode Island 1 - Loughlin

* Virginia 11 - Fimian

* Washington 2 - Koster

The iffys were, iffy. KY6, VA11, and WA2 are still 50/50 tossups (though I expect KY6 and WA2 to go Rep); but overall, the Republicans picked seven of the iffys.

And the likely pickups:

Arizona 1 - Gosar

Arizona 5 - Schweikert

Arizona 8 - Kelly

Arkansas 1 - Crawford

Arkansas 2 - Griffin

California 11 - Harmer

California 20 - Vidak

Colorado 3 - Tipton

Colorado 4 - Gardner

Connecticut 4 - Debicella

Florida 2 - Southerland

Florida 8 - Webster

Florida 22 - West

Florida 24 - Adams

Georgia 2 - Keown

Georgia 8 - Scott

Illinois 11 - Kinzinger

Illinois 14 - Hultgren

Illinois 17 - Schilling

Indiana 8 - Buchson

Indiana 9 - Young

Kansas 3 - Yoder

Louisiana 3 - Landry

Maryland 1 - Harris

Mass 10 - Perry

Michigan 1 - Benishek

Michigan 7 - Walberg

Mississippi 1 - Nunnelee

Mississippi 4 - Palazzo

Nevada 3 - Heck

New Hampshire 1 - Guinta

New Hampshire 2 - Bass

New Jersey 3 - Runyan

New Mexico 1 - Barela

New Mexico 2 - Pearce

New York 19 - Hayworth

New York 20 - Gibson

New York 23 - Doheny

North Carolina 8 - Johnson

North Dakota AL - Berg

Ohio 1 - Chabot

Ohio 6 - Johnson

Ohio 15 - Stivers

Ohio 16 - Renacci

Ohio 18 - Gibbs

Oregon 5 - Bruun

Penn 3 - Kelly

Penn 7 - Meehan

Penn 8 - Fitzpatrick

Penn 10 - Marino

Penn 11 - Barletta

S. Carolina 5 - Mulvaney

S. Dakota AL - Noem

Tenn 4 - DesJarlais

Tenn 6 - Black

Tenn 8 - Fincher

Texas 17 - Flores

Texas 23 - Canseco

Virginia 2 - Rigel

Virginia 5 - Hurt

Virginia 9 - Griffith

Washington 3 - Herrero

W. Virginia 1 - McKinley

Wisconsin 7 - Duffy

Wisconsin 8 - Ribble

If Harmer and Debicalla pull it out (they're 50/50) will only have missed six out of 65... not bad. In addition, NY state added 13, 24, and 29 as unexpected pickups.

It really looks like a 67 seat minimum, and maybe up to a 72... amazing.

Oh and a couple interesting factoids. There are now only seven states with all democratic House contingents: Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, and Maine... Coincidentally, excluding Maine, those are six of the eight smallest states (New Jersey and New Hampshire are the other two, Main is 11th). There are nine with all Republican house members, and all but New Hampshire are in the 20 largest.

Of course that's geographic area, not population... but look at that map above.

Eight of the top ten states in population, are now also represented by a HUGE geographic majority, AND either a popular majority or very close to it, AND either a district majority or very close to it (CA and NY, have a few very small geographic but high population districts that skew it) of Republicans.

If you exclude the LA basin (which has more than 20 districts) CA is by far majority Republican, even leaving in San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco. If you take out those four metropolitan areas (geographically less than 10% of the state), California is ENTIRELY Republican with the exception of one District (around Santa Cruz). Democrats in California are pretty much limited to 50 miles from the coast, in cities with populations over a million.

In New York state, right about half the land area went red. So did just under half the population as a whole. If it weren't for 2 points (3500 votes), NY23, which itself is about 1/4 the land area of the state, would have gone red.

In Florida, only six of 25 districts are Blue.

In NJ, half the districts went red (well, 6 of 13) more than 3/4 of the land area, and about half the population, went red.

In Ohio, only six of 18 districts stayed blue, and now more than 2/3 the population are represented by Republicans.

In Michigan, only Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint stayed blue.

In Illinois, 11 of 19 districts comprising 80% of the states land area went red. Outside of the immediate Chicago metropolitan area, only 1 district is still Dem.

In Minnesota only 4 out of 8 districts are still blue.

In Oregon, 2/3 the land area is red, though that's only 1 district... I've mentioned before, if it isn't along I5 the pols in Oregon don't know it exists.

This is one that tickles me the most... Washington State, 5 out of 9 districts representing more than 3/4 the land area and almost 1/2 the population, are now Republican

In fact, of the top 20 states in population, only California, New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland don't now have either a majority, parity, or plurality of Republican representation. In the top 30, only Oregon and Connecticut get added to that list.

In all,. 39 states have majority, parity, or plurality Republican representation. Of the remaining 11, states, only CA, NY and MA are individually electorally significant; and together those 11 states don't have sufficient electoral votes to elect a president (just about half actually) and most of them are going to be losing at least one electoral vote each, some will lose two votes.

That's going to make the upcoming redistricting very interesting... and then, 2012