Synopsis

Everyone deserves a great love story. But for seventeen-year old Simon Spier it’s a little more complicated: he’s yet to tell his family or friends he’s gay and he doesn’t actually know the identity of the anonymous classmate he’s fallen for online. Resolving both issues proves hilarious, terrifying and life-changing.

Pacific Rim: Uprising opened in first place over the weekend. In fact, it opened better than expected with $28.12 million. Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near enough compared to its production budget, so it will need international numbers to thrive. Black Panther was finally removed from top spot, but it also held on better than expected with $17.10 million. As for the rest of the new releases, they ranged from serious disappointments like Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ, to complete bombs like Midnight Sun and Unsane. The overall box office slipped just 2.0% from last week earning $129 million. However, this is 36% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead has completely evaporated and it is now $60 million or $2.1% behind 2017’s pace at $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion. I don’t see that improving this coming weekend.
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As predicted, Black Panther remained in first place on the weekend chart. Tomb Raider had an okay opening in second place, while I Can Only Imagine was the biggest positive surprise of the weekend. Love, Simon had a solid opening, especially compared to its production budget. The less said about 7 Days in Entebbe, the better. Overall, the weekend box office was down 4.8% from last weekend to just $132 million. This is 49% lower than this weekend last year. A 49% decline usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but in this case it’s due to Beauty and the Beast’s debut. 2018 is still ahead of 2017, albeit by a fraction of last week’s lead at just $66 million or 2.8%. In fact, with a margin of just $2.46 billion to $2.39 billion, it is very likely 2018 will lose its lead before the next weekend begins.
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A spirited opening by Tomb Raider won’t be quite enough to knock Black Panther off its perch at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend. The final numbers will be close: Raider is predicted to earn $23.52 million by Warner Bros., while Disney has Panther coming in with $27.024 million. If the numbers hold (and it would be a huge surprise if they don’t), Black Panther will become the first film since Avatar to spend its first five weekends at the top of the chart.
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As expected, Tomb Raider opened in first place with $9.06 million on Friday. However, this won’t be enough to stay ahead of Black Panther for long. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, while it earned just a B from CinemaScore. A $23 million to $24 million opening isn’t a bad start for this time of year, but it is far from impressive for a film that reportedly cost between $90 million and $106 million.
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Tomb Raider started its box office run with $2.1 million during its midnight showings. This is almost exactly what the film needed to earn to match our prediction. In fact, it might be a little on the high side. The film’s reviews are, according to Rotten Tomatoes, the best for a video game adaptation of all time, at least for films that got a theatrical release here. If the film can top $25 million over the weekend, then the studio will be mostly happy. They can’t be completely blown away, as the film reportedly cost $90 million to make and it likely won’t have great legs, due to the Fanboy Effect.
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Another week and another film trying to dethrone Black Panther. This week, it’s Tomb Raider’s chance to finally remove Black Panther from first place on the weekend chart. I don’t like its chances. The only other truly wide release of the week is Love, Simon, which should have a solid, but not spectacular opening. There are two other films with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten: I Can Only Imagine and 7 Days in Entebbe. This weekend last year, Beauty and the Beast opened with nearly $175 million. That’s more than the entire box office is going to earn this weekend. 2018 is going to get crushed.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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Everyone deserves a great love story. But for seventeen-year old Simon Spier it’s a little more complicated: he’s yet to tell his family or friends he’s gay and he doesn’t actually know the identity of the anonymous classmate he’s fallen for online. Resolving both issues proves hilarious, terrifying and life-changing.
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