The latest New Hampshire Democratic primary poll indicates not only a current reality in that state, but an underlying and far more important national trend, a trend exhibited in N.H. that has bearing more broadly throughout the country, and that shows U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders already well on the road toward locking up the Democratic nomination, barring any future game-changing disclosures about one or both candidates, which are always possibilities in any political contest, and can never be ruled out. The same poll also shows Sanders performing more strongly against any Republican than Hillary Clinton would. This is not the way things looked to most prognosticators back on April 30th when Sanders started his campaign.

On June 1st, I bannered, “My Prediction: Bernie Sanders Will Win the White House,” based upon the early indications being clear, even then, that he would have a higher net-favorability rating from likely Democratic Presidential primary voters than Hillary Clinton. (The same analysis, from many polls, indicated also that Sanders would likely beat any Republican candidate in the general election.) Whereas far more Democrats at that time were familiar with Clinton than with Sanders, and therefore Clinton scored far higher in the national polls then than he did (and so she was presumed to be the contest’s front-runner), the determinant of the future trendlinefor any candidate is net-favorability ratings, especially comparing “strongly approve” versus “strongly disapprove,” which ratios tend to be, especially at such an early stage in a contest, a far better predictor of the contest’s ultimate winner than are the sheer poll-numbers at such a time. What the latest New Hampshire poll, taken now near the end of the contest in N.H., shows, is that the campaign in New Hampshire, as it is nearing its end, is increasingly displaying a strong edge over Clinton that Sanders has on this most crucial of all ratios,which is propelling him toward a substantial margin of victory in this, the first, primary state.

The CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and CNN, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, randomly surveyed New Hampshire adults and found 420 who indicated that they intended to vote in the Democratic Presidential primary on February 9th. Here are the results:

More than nine in ten (91%) likely Democratic Primary voters have a favorable opinion of Sanders, only 7% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 2% are neutral, and 1% don’t know enough about him to say. Sanders’ net favorability rating is an almost unheard of +84%.

Former Secretary of State and 2008 New Hampshire Primary winner Hillary Clinton also continues to be popular in the state – 65% of likely Democratic Primary voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 26% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 9% are neutral, and 1% don’t know enough about her to say. Clinton’s net favorability rating is +39%.

Sanders’ net favorability rating has steadily increased over 2015 from +34% in February to +67% in September to +84% in the most recent poll. Clinton’s has eroded through the same period, from +74% in February to +44% in September, and remaining at +39% in the latest CNN/WMUR poll.

The trendlines are starkly indicated in the following, from this N.H. poll:

“Sanders is the most electable Democrat as measured by net electability, the percentage who support a candidate minus the percentage who would not vote for that candidate under any circumstances. Sanders net electability score is +56%, while Clinton’s net electability score is +19%, and O’Malley’s is -26%. Clinton’s net electability rating has been declining over the past year while Sanders’ has continued to increase.”

What this crucial fact means is: the more that voters get to know about Sanders, the more they approve of him, whereas the more that they get to know about Clinton, the less they approve of her. (As regards O’Malley, voters still can’t see any reason for him to be running, other than self-aggrandizement.)

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who jumped to second place in the latest WMUR/CNN New Hampshire Primary Poll of Republican candidates, trails Sanders, 56 percent to 33 percent, with independents favoring Sanders, 56 percent to 24 percent.

Clinton has a much smaller lead over Cruz, 47 percent to 41 percent, with independents slightly favoring Cruz, 39 percent to 33 percent.

The polls are meaningless predictors of voter behavior if we do not have a system that can accurately count the votes. The political operatives who manipulate voting machines can reliably deliver a desired vote count to a crook rich enough to pay for it. These crooks seem to be largely Republican, given the “red shift” in our elections. Jonathan Simon’s new book, CODE RED, speaks to the rigging of elections through the computerized voting apparatus now used in most states. A “paper trail” is no protection. Listen to Dr Simon speak about vote fraud last year…..then read his new book!

http://bradblog.com/?p=11498
Another Presidential Election Year Featuring Unverified and/or Unverifiable E-Voting GUEST: Election integrity watchdog Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org
(Bev) Harris tells me (Brad Friedman), describing some of the ways election integrity advocates can try to force the issue a bit. Among her suggestions: “You can go [to the polling place at closing time] and snap a picture of what those [computer tabulated] results are with your cell phone and compare it with, at least, what they report” later on.

But now both parties will use a Microsoft smartphone or tablet app to report the results from each precinct caucus back to the state party on election night. In addition, the Democrats will host a tele-caucus for Iowa residents who are out of the country, allowing them to vote via a
conference call system.
snip

In the past, both parties in Iowa have reported individual precinct results via phone, with an automated dial-in system to punch in the vote counts. The Microsoft platform is replacing that process with separate apps for Republicans and Democrats to input their results digitally and another app for each party’s headquarters to receive those figures and validate the results. The
parties can also program their apps to catch potential anomalies or reporting errors. Once the precinct figures are approved by the state party, they’ll be posted online in real time for the public to follow. Kaufman says the state GOP has already held more than 200 training sessions with precinct chairs to go over the new system.Microsoft isn’t charging the parties of the state for the technology. “We’re providing this to the parties because we think it’s an important process the U.S. election process and our democracy,” Stan Freck, the company’s senior director of Campaign Technology Services, told reporters. (my note: How controlling of you, and anti-democracy)
………….

Certainly the outlook for democracy seems pretty bleak—and how could it be otherwise? The surest way to make a problem worse is to pretend it isn’t there, which is exactly what our press and politicians have been doing; and the rest is, unfortunately, history.

But history can be changed, as We the People have continually learned, from our refusal of
colonial subjection, to our (partial) establishment as a democratic republic, to the abolition of slavery, to the enfranchisement of women, to the end of formal segregation and the passage of the Voting Rights Act.

After that, our progress seemed to stop, and it must now resume: for history can be changed, and for the better, but only through our own unbreakable commitment to, and action for, enlightened policies for the renewal of our democracy. Based squarely on America’s first principles, such
policies would not be wholly new, however revolutionary they must sound in these bad, backward times. As it was certain policies that got us into this horrific situation, certain other policies can get us out.

The fact is that We the People are in lousy shape, and must get straight as soon as possible. For we are all addicted to the horse race—and we can’t win, because it’s fixed. And so, before we end up losing everything, we need to pull ourselves together, face the music, and then take all necessary steps to change the tune.

A 12-Step Program to Save US Democracy

1. Repeal the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).
This step will inevitably follow an in-depth investigation of how HAVA came to be.

Out of the DC Hilton, Ritz Carlton, Sheraton Hotels, Little Boys and Girls for Military and Defense Contracts, Congressman, Senators, Media and others Blackmailed
By Stew Webb Federal Whistleblower-Activist

This is a story of the U.S. Shadow Government tied to Organized Crime, Foreign intelligence, current and retired FBI Trolls and stooges and how they have Blackmailed, Imprisoned, Murdered, defamed and tried to destroyed their reputations, those who have exposed their crimes or got in their way.

U.S. senators and congressmen are covering up the Dusty Foggo government lobbyist and military prostitution and pedophilia ring in Washington involving legislators, news reporters, military officers and high government officials. Alberto Gonzales and President Bush fired San Diego U.S. Attorney Carol Lam because she was probing the Dusty Foggo / Jack Abramoff D.C. sex ring.

Is child sex and prostitution in exchange for defense contracts and votes for war too explosive for the American people to hear?

I’m panning a bold and fairly preposterous project to counter the outrageously preposterous establishment media. I’m working around the clock on a new unique media platform- a big one; big in terms of resources, reach, capabilities … It’s a massive media project funded by the people, big and strong enough to challenge & counter the big MSM….)

2. Replace all electronic voting with hand-counted paper ballots (HCPB).
Although politicians and the press dismiss this idea as utopian, the people would support it just as overwhelmingly as national health care, strong environmental measures, US withdrawal from Iraq, and other sane ideas.

3. Get rid of computerized voter rolls.
It isn’t just the e-voting machines that are obstructing our self-government. According to USA Today, thousands of Americans have had their names mysteriously purged from the electronic databases now used nationwide as records of our registration.

4. Keep all private vendors out of our elections.
With their commercial interests, trade secrets and unaccountable proceedings, private companies should have no role in the essential process of republican self-government.

5. Make it illegal for the TV networks to declare who won before the vote-count is complete.
Certainly the corporate press will scream about its First Amendment Rights, but they don’t have the right to interfere with our elections. When they declare a winner when we don’t yet even know if the election was legitimate, they delegitimize all audits, recounts and even first counts of the vote as the mere desperate measures of “sore losers.”

6. Set up an exit polling system, publicly supported, to keep the vote-counts honest.
Only in America are exit poll results not meant to help us gauge the accuracy of the official count. Here they are meant only to allow the media to make its calls.

7. Get rid of voter registration rules, by allowing every citizen to register, at any post office, on his/her 18th birthday.
Either we believe in universal suffrage or we don’t.

8. Ban all state requirements for state-issued ID’s at the polls.
As the Supreme Court smiles on such Jim Crow devices, we need a law, or Constitutional amendment, to forbid them.

10. Have Election Day declared a federal holiday, requiring all employers to allow their workers time to vote.
No citizens of the United States should ever lose the right to vote because they have to go to work.

11. Make it illegal for Secretaries of State to co-chair political campaigns (or otherwise assist or favor them).
Katherine Harris wore both those hats in Florida in 2000, and, four years later, so did Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Jan Brewer in Arizona. Such Republicans should not have been allowed to do it, nor should any Democrats.

12. Make election fraud a major felony, with life imprisonment–and disenfranchisement–for all repeat offenders.
“Three strikes and you’re out” would certainly befit so serious a crime against democracy.

This comes from Loser Take All: Election Fraud and the Subversion of Democracy, 2000-2008, a new collection of writings by the major Election Integrity people, which IG Publishing will be bringing out in early April.

jadan

Great post, Bev! Comprehensive solution!

Bev

Jadan, your video of Jonathan Simon was super too. Thanks.

All of us need an honest election statistician/mathematician such as Richard Charnin.

Charnin proves elections have been stolen by the extreme right, which explains how someone as cruel and stupid as the anti-science, the earth is 6,000 years old, racist Michigan’s Governor would end up in power and choose to poison families, and risk the survival of our species by denying climate change and radiation from Fukushima, and aging nuclear power plants.

Bernie should be alerting his independent voters to change their registration to Democrat if they want to vote for him in the Pennsylvania presidential primary, as well as in other states. The independent voter is a huge group. Nationwide, 43% of all voters consider themselves to be independent according to Gallup –http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx.

Not sure what official registration figures report. Many independents may not understand the limitations of their registration status (depending on their state) and how that affects their right to vote for the candidate of their choice in the primary.

In Pennsylvania, voters must be registered Democratic in order to vote in the Democratic primary.

IN PENNSYLVANIA – Deadline Alert: 03/28/2016 is the last day to register before the 04/26/2016 Democratic Primary Election.

As the Iowa Caucuses approach, Microsoft has partnered with the Republican and Democratic parties in the state to create apps for tabulating results. But the Bernie Sanders campaign is questioning why, exactly, the company is involved at all.

“You’d have to ask yourself why they’d want to give something like that away for free,” Pete D’Alessandro, who’s heading Sanders’ Iowa campaign, said in an interview with MSNBC.

D’Alessandro said the campaign, which has often criticized corporate influence in elections, will be using its own reporting system, as the Clinton campaign has, to double-check the results. He clarified that the issue was not with the Iowa Democratic Party as a whole, but with Microsoft’s involvement specifically. MSNBC also reported that other Sanders aides have raised concerns about Microsoft employees donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Clinton over the years.

A spokesperson for the Iowa Democratic Party told The Verge that the app has been under development for more than a year. “Microsoft and their app partner, InterKnowlogy, are global leaders in the technology industry, and we completely trust the integrity of their staff and the app,” (my note: Just like the Democratic leadership trust convicted criminal lobbyist Jack Abramoff’s HAVA putting those right wing evidence stripping e-voting, e-scanning, e-tabulating machines everywhere through abuse and blackmail ) the spokesperson said in a statement. “The app will help make caucus reporting more efficient, accurate and secure, and we look forward to seeing it in action on caucus night.”

Microsoft, for its part, is disputing that it had any ulterior motive in creating the apps.
………..

Bev

Bernie was correct in his concerns about Microsoft’s app. From report below:And here’s one reason why: Microsoft wrote really bad software that will keep new voters from registering

from: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/02/200pm-water-cooler-212016.html
2:00PM Water Cooler 2/1/2016
By LAMBERT STRETHER
The Trail
The Iowa caucuses start at 7PM today. A blizzard is on the way, but won’t arrive ’til after the caucuses conclude. On the Republican side, I have no idea who will win.
But even if Trump loses, I don’t think it will be by much, and I can’t see him giving up. Why would he? (Although it will be interesting to see how he redefines a loss into not being a loser.) On the Democratic side, I don’t have any idea either, and although the headline is that Clinton is in the lead, in fact, Sanders and Clinton are in a statistical dead heat. It’s worth noting, though, that even if Clinton does win, it took the entire political class acting collectively to heave her over the finish line, and she will have done so at the cost of “never, ever” being seen as “progressive” again. And Sanders can keep going until the FBI indictment convention, with his small donor base. Why wouldn’t he? So I expect the race to remain interesting for some time to come.

“In a somewhat ominous sign for [Trump and Sanders], the registration numbers have not increased much for either party, and although there is same day registration, the Iowa hands all point out that the Obama upset was presaged by very substantial registrations of new Democrats for months ahead of time” [Digby,Salon]. Sketchy sourcing, though…

And here’s one reason why: Microsoft wrote really bad software that will keep new voters from registering

With the potentially pivotal Iowa caucus mere hours away, the Bernie Sanders campaign has found evidence to suggest that Hillary has been “infiltrating the caucuses with out-of-state paid staffers.”
By NATHAN WELLMAN

The alarming controversy began when Sanders supporter Dennis Clifford received a letter from the Clinton campaign urging him to caucus for Clinton. While this isn’t in itself unusual, the letter named a paid staffer from out of state as its precinct captain.

“It’s my job to make sure all of Hillary’s supporters are in attendance on caucus night to ensure Hillary wins,” the out-of-state captain said.

“I think this raises a very serious concern,” Jeff Weaver, national campaign chairman for Sanders, told Yahoo! News. “I would hope that the media will be able to get to this before Monday night.”

Precinct captains are traditionally entirely staffed by Iowans. Weaver calls this a “highly irregular” practice on the part of the Clinton campaign, with some experts worrying that this placement “could easily lead to abuse.”

While Weaver assured Bernie supporters that he’s not concerned specifically about this single out-of-state precinct captain, he did insist that this could be a small link in a larger strategy by the Clinton campaign to have “non-residents attempt to participate and be counted in the caucus.”

Running contrary to what the intercepted letter suggests, the Clinton campaign continues to maintain that all of its precinct captains are Iowans.
…..

This is a very serious accusation especially given the razor thin race in Iowa between Clinton and Sanders. The entire incident was captured on camera by C-SPAN. We have included the full video below.

Reddit user cosmicjesus3 explains:

So basically in the caucus they have to hand count everyone depending on what side they’re sitting on. Well when it came time to do the second count the numbers were off. The first vote breakdown was like this

FIRST VOTE: 215 Sanders 210 Clinton 26 O’Malley 8 Undecided 459 TOTAL

And this is the SECOND Vote: 232 Clinton 224 Sanders 456 Total

So somehow they lost 3 people but Clinton’s vote went up by 14.

So basically what had happened was Hillary’s team didn’t take the time to do a full recount instead she just added the new people who joined the second vote. Which clearly wasn’t an accurate count.

The new television ad that was released by Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) campaign, based on
Simon and Garfunkel’s song “America,” is the most brilliant and appropriate campaign ad of the year so far, and may be the most important campaign ad since President Reagan’s “Morning in America” ad.

The ad perfectly captures the vision and spirit of the Sanders campaign and the mood of an America today that is the stuff of diverse people yearning to come together for common dreams and aspirations, at a time when many voters are hurting and hungering for a better life. The ad
brings together music and video behind the Sanders message in a way that is fun to watch and memorable in substance and tone.In his ad, Sanders, like Simon and Garfunkel in their song, paints a portrait of a people seeking a better and nobler and more hopeful nation. There is a poetry and romance to the ad, as there is a poetry and romance to politics at its best —
snip

The “America” ad is one that voters will want to see many times, unlike most political campaign ads, and it projects a message that is positive, uplifting and unifying, which embodies the spirit that we Americans want in our politics and our country.

Sarastro92

Once past Iowa and NH, does Sanders lead in ANY other Democratic Party primary?

I’m interested in his candidacy… in fact BS is the only candidate I could possibly vote for (though I have several reservations I hope he can address as a voter) …. but in winner take all primaries HRC seems to have a very strong lead.

Libertybellle

Bernie Sanders and Mein Kampf advocate socialism!

cettel

But they define it very differently. For Hitler, it meant racial bonding: the supremacy of the Aryan people, which includes the subordination of the individual to their ‘greater good.’ It was more of a military-cohesion concept. And it had nothing to do with economics, which remained capitalist. And Hitler despised all other types of ‘socialism.’

Rick

Socialism, Communism, Fascism, Capitalism, etc – ALL -ISMS are ALL ROTTEN. Why? Because they are all made of some group of people that think they know what is best for everyone, and because of that, they will always be wrong, and because of that, they will always be blamed, and because of that, the people will never learn to be responsible for their own lives, and because of that, the people will always live in misery. I hope that’s clear. Everything in the universe, material or non-material, is a matter of cause & effect. And nobody is saving anybody better than people can save themselves.

So, in the final analysis, it doesn’t matter who wins. First of all, the winner has already been s-elected, and secondly, the people will continue to be losers that sink ever deeper into poverty and despair, because they are trying to thrive off DEPENDENCY, which is a hole that only digs itself deeper and deeper until complete irreversable failure+annihilation. The only sustainable society is the free+independent society, the generally agrarian landowner-based society. But it is always in danger of failing from overpopulation, invasions, and the deception of evil powers.

Kate

Excellent comment!

All those that cast a Sanders vote are complicit in sedition against the Republic plain and simple. A vote period, for any candidate, R or D, is a vote to acknowledge the criminal cabal posing as the US govt.. None of the candidates running for CEO of the corporation have stood up and told the truth about the condition we as American Nationals are in, such as the bankruptcy, and we being declared enemies of the state. NDAA and the Patriot Act voted on by both parties has declared our Bill of Rights dead. This de facto govt. all of it, has breached the contract which makes all of them in violation, and by voting simply keeps the con going. Not voting sends a greater message than a hand full of people voting.

Army of Addicts

The only “message” not voting sends is that you don’t exist. Vote for Santi Claus, BUT VOTE!!

Army of Addicts

You just answered the question as to why we have, so far, not been able to exist without the -ISMS.

I guess the trick would be to pick the path that keeps all other paths from getting too comfortable in their own shoes, until we find equilibrium somewhere down the road.

todg

Very good comment. I like that Bernie hates Wall Street corruption, but that corruption led to the problem, which is the monetary system. This monetary system as it exists, brought on by Wall Street and other banking entities, creates more debt than there exists money to pay it off, and creates money without limit. This system creates unsustainable debt, which is eating away most at those who can’t afford to pay it off, the poor and lower middle class. Right now total debt (public and private, not including unfunded liabilities) stands at $62.6T dollars, about 4 times estimated M3 supply of $17T. Yes, people should be responsible, and not take on more debt than they should, but its like asking a fish to stop eating when too much food is thrown into the bowl. The one thing we need above all else is an idiot-proof monetary system that will remain balanced. This thing truly went off the rails even more when Bretton Woods was defaulted on in 1971 – that’s when the debt went truly parabolic.

What Bernie offers in response to this is an ineffective Robin Hood-esque band-aid, and when has the government been able to manage all that with frugality and effectiveness? I have voted in the last two elections for the Green Party because they at least made monetary reform a part of their platform. I really hate it when people tell me I am wasting my vote, if I voted for one of the usual CFR-sponsored shills that are always on both sides, I would be throwing away not only my vote, but our future.

Speaking of CFR shills, those are the only ones allowed to be in the final race. Clinton Curtis has stated in court that he was ordered by his bosses to add invisible buttons on voting machine screens for his company, so that those in the know could swing the vote. Of course the oligarchy also has the delegates to filter out the undesired, if they cannot be convinced to pile up their administrations with the usual crop of CFR “advisors”. If one uncooperative candidate filters though the system though, there always is the airplane “accident” that can await them.

The oligarchy should be particularly annoyed at the prospect of a Trump vs. Sanders election, I have not seen any evidence that either of them could be swayed towards all critical positions of the oligarchy. So we’ll see what happens. The only acceptable outcome for them seems to be Hillary. Ewwww,

Michael Daush

What doe is mean for the Bern?

cettel

The type of socialism that’s in the Scandinavian nations. He has said that many times. In other words: democratic socialism, not communism (or dictatorial socialism). He has said that throughout his career. Another difference between the two ideologies is: in communism, private property is virtually prohibited. In democratic socialism, most property is private — “socialism” is then a form of capitalism, but it is democratic capitalism instead of dictatorial capitalism which is otherwise called fascism. What the U.S. now is or has become is fascism. Sanders wants to change that. He doesn’t like fascism.

Michael Daush

Thanks for that response. I’d need a much more detailed answer from him about ownership. For instance, would the BLM give all of their holdings to the American people where it belongs?
Who would decide which kid gets to college because Europe doe snot allow most kids to go to college like we do here.
Having somebody else pay for your expenses sounds good but not at the price of having big government decide who goes to college, or where?
would we all oloive in 800 SF apartments like they do in Europe? Would gas be out the roof because of taxes?
In essence, what price freedom do we give up for security?

Eddie

Someone tell me what the frack is so wrong with producing ID to prove you are who you say you are? The race thing is a canard. Thrill me with your acumen, Clarice.

Rick

I don’t have “ID”, I am “ID”. Why should I be forced to “prove who I am” or provide “confidential information” to others? If I am free and equal in sovereignty to others, then nobody has any right to make demands upon me that I don’t have a right to make upon them. And will anyone in govt, or any other person for that matter, provide me with the information they demand from me? HELL NO! You are lucky if you can even get a first name out of anyone in govt that you must interact with. ID is submission to tyrants, a relinquishment of sovereignty, a promoter of authoritarianism, and encouragement to those who play political games with immigration and visas.

It’s as dumb as asking “why is anyone concerned with privacy? If you got nothing to hide, what’s the problem?” Meanwhile, those who should have no privacy, and those who should have all personal info publically disseminated – those in govt that should be fully accountable: they operate fully in secret, without any mechanisms of accountability. And those that should be able to live privately, the people and inhabitants, are shamelessly stripped of all privacy and sovereignty because of people with the attitude you suggest.

PS: all documentation, in a final analysis, ends up being used for fraud more than fraud-prevention, just as all authority, in a final analysis, ends up being used more for corruption than corruption-prevention. It’s just how human nature works, and there’s no changing it.

Michael Daush

You are free and you are equal, but are you a citizen who has the right to vote.

There millions of people in America who do not have the right to vote because they are not citizens.

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