Now, before you draw your conclusion…I would just like to point out, that I don’t consider Russia to be an opposing undemocratic geo-political foe. I believe, like this brilliant article by Dmitri Trenin that some of the fault were definitely on our side. Also, another brilliant piece explains Russia’s foreign policy in a completely different light.

But well…time will speak on which side of history who would be, and if the forces of geo-politics and economics would be too strong to stop a second Cold war. Time to hoist your colours meanwhile!

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5 thoughts on “Battle lines of the future? Pick your side!”

I think the situation is much more complex than the Cold War because it does not come down to idealogical foundations, so the potential relationships between actors are more varied. There’s no iron curtain this time around.

For instance, New Zealand might have signed that agreement to work closely with NATO but we also were the first Western country to sign a free trade agreement with China, while the depth of the US-China economic relationship is well known. I don’t necessarily agree that closer economic ties make for friendlier relations but they definitely make those relations more complex.

I think what will happen in the Asia-Pacific region is that there will 4 major powers (India, China, US, Russia) and each will have influence in certain spheres. Obviously the US has got a few certain allies in the area – Taiwan, Japan, Phillipines etc, but I can imagine a lot of smaller countries (NZ included) effectively playing off the big powers against each other to get the best possible result for themselves. There are so many unknown factors whaich are key to the overall shape of things to come though: how China manages its rise and pressure to democratise; the outcome of the South China Sea dispute; what happens to Pakistan and South-west Asia when NATO leaves Afghanistan; the emergence of Indonesia as a rising power; Myanmar’s moves to open up; and so on. Definitely an interesting phase in history starting now!

Oh yea, absolutely…agreed. Much more fragmented now, much more globalised, various new actors influencing which we have not seen before. I was just being a bit frivolous, as I was not feeling like writing a detailed analysis, lol!. I am interested to observe the potential flashpoints though…most importantly South China sea…

As of the matter of Iron Curtain however, there maybe no ideological blocs balancing, but there are still Great powers and client states. State structure is more Hobbesian and anarchic, with conflict potential considerably higher. “Iron Curtain” and confrontational rhetoric started with a single speech…might as well be a speech by someone in the future, rolling the ball for the formation of blocs.

And, smaller countries effectively playing off the big powers to get the best possible result…lol…you’re a realist, I presume? There is always a possibility of the other way round…with small countries fighting in a big power game!