Seahawks' schedule guarantees losses, cash

Thursday

Nov 15, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Men's basketball team will make cash, but losses dampen fans' hopes

By Brian MullBrian.Mull@StarNewsOnline.com

The UNCW men's basketball team will travel roughly 5,800 miles to play nonconference games this season.According to statistician Ken Pomeroy, who uses possession-based statistics to forecast the margin of victory and a team's probability of winning, the Seahawks are double-digit underdogs in their first six road games, beginning with the 43-point thrashing they took Tuesday night at Richmond. All six of those road foes are ranked in the top 100 of the Pomeroy Ratings, four are in the top 50. UNCW is No. 255.Pomeroy's computer model is reliable, correctly forecasting the winner in 75 percent of UNCW games last season. It sees the Seahawks' best chance for a nonconference road victory coming against longtime rival Campbell on Dec. 29. The Camels are just a three-point favorite over UNCW at this time, although plenty could change between now and then. Each team won the rivalry game at home on a buzzer beater the last two years.Regardless, having a record above .500 entering the CAA schedule would be a phenomenal accomplishment for a team that's counting on five players who entered the season with a combined four games experience at UNCW.

Now look at the scheduling philosophy of Wright State, a mid-major program with strong ties to the coast. Brad Brownell left UNCW and spent four seasons as coach there before taking the Clemson job prior to the 2010-11 season. He was replaced by his assistant, former UNCW player Billy Donlon, who in two seasons has not maintained the lofty level established by Brownell. After four consecutive 20-win seasons, the Raiders are 32-33 the last two years. But the Raiders will improve on their 13-19 record this season.Not necessarily because they're older, stronger, better defenders or sharper shooters - though they might be all of those things. Rather, because they've scheduled a winner.Wright State, off to a 2-0 start with victories over No. 181 Idaho and No. 338 Eastern Illinois, plays 11 more nonconference games before diving into Horizon League play. Of those opponents, seven are ranked 250 or worse, one is an unranked Division II program and only one, in-state power Cincinnati, is in the top 180. In all likelihood, the Raiders will be 10-3 at the worst and needing roughly a .500 record in a conference currently ranked 12th of 32 in Division I to secure yet another 20-win season. People will pay attention to the "other school" in Dayton, Ohio. Yet it's not that easy for a mid-major program to take control of its nonconference schedule.

The problem is, due to financial shortcomings and – to a degree – existing contracts, UNCW wasn't free to assemble a favorable schedule. It entered the season having to return games at Davidson, Marshall and Campbell, teams picked to win their conference. Next week's trip to Big Ten steady Purdue fulfilled an obligation stemming from the team's trip to Bahamas prior to the 2011-12 season. From there, the Seahawks needed to secure guarantee money (roughly $150,000 to help the cash-strapped athletic department) and find home games.They signed two-year deals with in-state foes UNC-Asheville and UNC-Greensboro, and started both series at home. They added a home game with Division II program Coker College. They agreed to play a guarantee game at Georgia Tech. Then, they filled the schedule with a "tournament" (more like an arranged marriage of scheduling) along with Wofford, Hampton, Ohio and Richmond. Through this, the program received $75,000 and two home games, along with two extremely difficult road trips, games the Seahawks aren't ready for based on their disastrous performance at Richmond.The end result was a stringent schedule for a program that's won more than 13 games once in the last six seasons. By New Year's Day, the Seahawks could be in the most peculiar situation where they're unbeaten at home and winless on the road.

On that same day, as people sweep up confetti and throw away the silly hats, there's likely to be a strong buzz building around the Wright State program. Casual hoops fans will look at the record and think: this is a good team and, in turn, buy tickets. Only stat geeks and diehard fans pay attention to strength of schedule.Most folks just want their team to win. Nobody's interested in narrow defeats to strong mid-majors. Blowouts can do lasting damage to a players' psyche.UNCW should've sacrificed a home game or two in this postseasonless season, gone on the road, started series against low-level Southern Conference and Big South opponents, who'd be happy to welcome a CAA guest. The Seahawks should have built confidence by winning in November and December as perennial doormat Georgia State did last season on its way to 22 victories, the program's most since 2000-01. I'm sure UNCW coach Buzz Peterson wouldn't mind, considering that in 15 seasons, he's 2-18 in November nonconference road games.Yes, the Seahawks' schedule offers opportunities to spring upsets and shock the college basketball world. It also means they can't afford a single home slip-up. They'll need a winning CAA record – something accomplished once since 2005-06 – to finish with a winning overall mark.Too much turbulence, too many potholes for a program that's lost 65 percent of the time over the last six seasons.