The growing number of Republicans retiring from Congress – including two Southern California lawmakers who made announcements this week – may anticipate a Democratic wave in the mid-term elections, a development that would further diminish the GOP’s already marginal influence in the state.

The two veteran California lawmakers unexpectedly announcing this week that they would not seek reelection – Reps. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, and Darrell Issa, R-Vista – both represent districts where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump. Both are among districts targeted by Democrats in their effort to flip the 24 seats needed to take control of the House of Representatives. The prospect of losing often factors into such retirement decisions.

“The incumbents have their ear to the ground and they are headed to the exits,” said Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of Cal State Los Angeles’ Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs. “In terms of what’s going to happen in November, incumbents are the canary in the coal mine.

“The retirements of Royce and Issa are a sign of how beleaguered Republicans are in California.”

Democrats already hold every statewide seat, 39 of the 53 House seats and have a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate. Among the state’s voters, 45 percent are Democrats and 26 percent are Republicans, while independents are at 25 percent and on the verge of overtaking the number of Republicans, according to Secretary of State data.

That’s a sharp GOP decline from a decade ago, when 34 percent were Republicans and 19 percent were independents. The change is primarily attributable to the growing Latino electorate, which overwhelmingly favors Democrats, and millennials, who are less likely to register as Republicans than previous generations of young voters.

Despite those numbers, California Republicans continue to pride themselves in playing an outsized role in local government. They hold a larger share of county elected offices than Democrats (48 percent to 42 percent) and more than their share of city posts (42 percent to 46 percent).

The GOP is particularly strong in certain pockets, with Orange County historically one of those regions. Countywide officials and the five county supervisors are all Republican, and the county’s city, school board, state legislative and congressional officials are dominated by Republicans.

County, state and national GOP leaders responded to the Royce and Issa resignations by pointing to Orange County Republicans’ strong local organization and saying it would be able to retain those seats with the GOP candidates who are quickly emerging.

“Orange County has no shortage of Republican talent and a highly organized ground effort with the (National Republican Congressional Committee) at the forefront,” said Steve Stivers, NRCC chairman. “We have just one message for Democrats who think they can compete for this seat: Bring it on.”

Others dismiss that as bravado and point to Orange County’s steadily declining GOP advantage in voter registration, which peaked at 22 percentage points in 1990 and is now 3 points. Hillary Clinton was the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the county since 1936.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report responded to Royce’s retirement announcement by changing its ranking of that election from “leans Republican” to “leans Democrat.” Issa’s announcement prompted Cook to change that district, which straddles the Orange-San Diego county line, from “toss up” to “leans Democrat.”

Incumbents at risk

Some national Republican groups are ready to cut loose the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. Instead, they’re establishing a battle wall somewhat back from the frontline to ensure that the party retains control of the House.

“The pattern seems to be in keeping with a strategy of trying to retain a slim House majority,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political scientist at UC Riverside.

In nearly every mid-term election following the election of a new president, the president’s party loses seats in the House. Only once since 1938 has the president’s party gained seats in the mid-term after he was elected.

The Congressional Leadership Fund is among those who appear resigned to losing seats so long as they maintain a GOP House majority, according to Ramakrishnan. It has set up campaign field offices in 27 congressional districts nationwide. All are districts targeted by Democrats but none are the most endangered. CLF spokeswoman Courtney Alexander didn’t dispute Ramakrishnan’s analysis.

Five Republicans appear on each of the lists of most vulnerable House members compiled by Cook, Roll Call and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Congressional Leadership Fund has not established offices in any of the five districts, which include those of Issa and Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa. Instead, it has set up shop in the districts of Royce; Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach; Steve Knight, R-Palmdale; David Valadao, R-Hanford; and Jeff Denham, R-Turlock.

“If there is a blue wave, then these two seats (Issa’s and Rohrabacher’s) probably aren’t worth spending money on,” said Lori Cox Han, a Chapman University political science professor.

However, both Han and Sonenshein noted that there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift before the November election. And Sonenshein said there are deep-pocketed donors as well as other GOP organizations that can fill the void left by groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund.

Among those is the California Republican Party. CRP chairman Jim Brulte said that protecting all of the state’s GOP House seats is a priority. A GOP-backed ballot measure, which would roll back Democrats’ new transportation plan and accompanying gas tax hike, could help motivate Republican voters and influence other contests, as could an effort to recall state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, because of his support of the tax increase.

“We have an opportunity to do well in this cycle,” Brulte said. “We play a pivotal role in whether Republicans will control the House, and Orange County is ground zero.”

Future of GOP

Trump, like all presidents, leads the way in defining his party’s identity – and that can cause Republicans difficulty in California. Nationwide, 23 Republican congressional districts preferred Clinton to Trump. Nearly a third of those were in California: the districts of Issa, Walters, Royce, Rohrabacher, Knight, Valado and Denham.

“This November’s election is driven almost entirely by Trump, and there’s not a lot California Republicans can do about that,” Sonenshein said. “Their short-term future is very bleak. But that’s not necessarily true of their long-term future.

“They have some promising candidates who just can’t get past national politics. The more that they can become a state party distinct from the national party and the more they can back a set of policies that are more in line with the population, the more potential I see. The Democratic Party here got way in front of the national party and has done very well. Republicans could do the same thing.”

Brulte largely agreed, while saying that the candidates define the party rather than the other way around. It’s critical that the GOP do better in reaching Latino, Asian and millennial voters, he said.

“Republican candidates who take policy positions and do outreach to these segments tend to do well and those who don’t do that don’t do well,” he said. “We educate our candidates on these populations, but it’s the candidates who decide their positions.”

The party’s success at the local level provides a solid foundation going forward, he said. And he noted that some Democratic states are now Republican while some Republican states are now Democratic.

“Nothing ever remains constant,” he said. “It is much harder for Republicans in California than it was 30 years. It may be much easier 30 years from now.”

Martin Wisckol covers coastal environment and development. Previously, he spent two decades as politics reporter and columnist for the Orange County Register. He’s also held reporting positions in Miami, Jacksonville, Detroit and his hometown of San Diego, with an emphasis on land use and urban planning. He is a lifelong surfer and has spent most of his life on the coast. His work has been honored by the Society of Professional Journalists, the National Headliner Awards, the California Newspaper Publishers Association, the Florida Press Club and the American Planning Association Florida Chapter.