Consistency Factor - Vital Draft Day Intelligence

Consistency Factor: an
indicator designed to measure a player's Weekly and/or Daily
quality production output using Fantistics Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).

For anyone who has played
in a Head to Head league, you probably already know the importance of
Weekly Consistency in player production. Similar in nature to the popular
indicator which measures a pitcher's Quality Starts (Bill James),
Consistency Factor gives us an indicator of a batter's quality games
or quality weekly output. As a benchmark we are comparing each hitter's
daily/weekly production to the average production of the top 250 major
league hitters. If a player's production for a particular day or week is
above the group mean, then the player registers a quality game/week. These
games/weeks are accumulated and the sum is the output we're calling
Consistency Factor.

2007 Top 20 Consistent Weekly Producers (out
of a possible 26)

Player Name

Tm

Weekly '07

%

2-3 YR%

1

Magglio Ordonez

Det

22

84%

67%

2

Hanley Ramirez

Fla

21

82%

78%

3

David Ortiz

Bos

19

77%

78%

4

Chipper Jones

Atl

17

76%

83%

5

Matt Holliday

Col

20

76%

73%

6

David Wright

NYN

20

75%

62%

7

Todd Helton

Col

19

74%

66%

8

Carlos Pena

TB

18

73%

66%

9

Alex Rodriguez

NYA

19

72%

65%

10

Albert Pujols

StL

19

72%

77%

11

Derrek Lee

ChN

18

72%

77%

12

Dave Roberts

SF

13

68%

61%

13

Chone Figgins

LAA

13

68%

58%

14

Ryan Howard

Phi

16

67%

75%

15

Jeff Kent

LAN

15

66%

69%

16

Reggie Willits

LAA

15

66%

76%

17

Rickie Weeks

Mil

13

66%

58%

18

Derek Jeter

NYA

17

65%

68%

19

B.J. Upton

TB

14

65%

60%

20

Jim Thome

ChA

14

65%

62%

21

Curtis Granderson

Det

17

65%

57%

22

Corey Hart

Mil

15

64%

66%

23

Placido Polanco

Det

15

63%

54%

24

Mike Jacobs

Fla

12

63%

58%

25

Jimmy Rollins

Phi

17

63%

55%

26

Carlos Lee

Hou

17

63%

59%

27

Carl Crawford

TB

15

63%

61%

28

Alfonso Soriano

ChN

14

62%

62%

29

Luis Castillo

NYN

14

62%

59%

30

David Eckstein

Tor

11

62%

42%

31

Dmitri Young

Was

14

62%

54%

32

Michael Young

Tex

16

62%

59%

33

Garrett Atkins

Col

16

61%

58%

34

Brandon Phillips

Cin

16

61%

58%

35

Eric Byrnes

Ari

16

60%

48%

36

Vladimir Guerrero

LAA

15

60%

68%

37

Carlos Guillen

Det

15

60%

69%

38

Johnny Damon

NYA

14

60%

57%

39

Shane Victorino

Phi

13

60%

47%

40

Jason Varitek

Bos

13

60%

54%

41

Grady Sizemore

Cle

16

59%

57%

42

Aramis Ramirez

ChN

13

59%

55%

43

Gary Sheffield

Det

13

59%

63%

44

Manny Ramirez

Bos

13

59%

65%

45

Mike Lowell

Bos

15

58%

46%

46

Carlos Beltran

NYN

14

58%

66%

47

Jorge Posada

NYA

14

58%

54%

48

Sammy Sosa

N/A

11

58%

46%

49

Kazuo Matsui

Hou

10

58%

53%

50

Brian Roberts

Bal

15

58%

57%

The purpose of this
indicator is to allow us to easily recognize those hitters who produce on
a consistent basis and those that do not. For those who play in a weekly
head to head format, the value of this indicator is obvious. In this
segment, I am making a case for Consistency Factor as a relevant
indicator for all fantasy or rotisserie league formats.

My premise here is
simple: established players who do not produce quality output on a
consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar success in the future. Essentially
we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes.
The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is
paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Consistency by it own
summation will cost us on draft day, as a consistently productive
player will logically produce the best stats overall. Thus the real value
of the Consistency Factor is to: 1.find or exclude the
players who are not consistent in their production and 2. target young
players who are showing consistent patterns. There are a distinct
group of players that mask their yearly results based on a few hot weeks
of production. As a fantasy GM in a non weekly or head to head format
format, you might be saying: "SO WHAT...as long as he produces what is
expected in his final year end statistics".

Here is the reasoning why
I am suggesting that inconsistent players be avoided: Streaky players, for
the most part, will never be consistent players. Thusplacing
faith in a player who only produces in small time frames exposes his
fantasy GM to injury and playing time risks that are beyond the normal
scope.

Injury Risk
Consideration

It's simple, stay away
from players who are both inconsistent and injury prone. The premise:
consistent players will produce evenly throughout the season and will not
be as adversely affected by missing playing time. Their opportunities for
achievement are more spread out, which reduces their risk.

Playing Time Risk
Consideration

A perfect example of a
player who produces in streaks is Milwaukee's Geoff Jenkins. Coming into
2006, Jenkins was the model of inconsistency for a player who usually
ended the season with decent yet unspectacular numbers. A 27 HR/90
RBI/.290 BA were numbers most typical of his year end production. Yet
Jenkins only had 10 out of 26 weeks of quality production in 2004, and 11
out of 26 weeks in 2005. Most players in this final stats range usually
have about 15 quality weeks of production. Jenkins was getting by with
40%+ less consistency. In 2006 however, Jenkins hit such a long streaks of
non production, he was essentially benched before he ever had a chance to
reach his typical hot spurt.

How to properly use
Consistency Factor

These are only two
examples highlighting the risk in taking established players who are not
consistent in spacing their production evenly throughout the season. Again
I want to point out that this is just a premise based on my understanding
of human behavioral patterns and the laws of probability. In thumbing through a list of consistent
players and inconsistent players over the last 3 years, in most cases
inconsistent weekly players (despite masking some years with
quality year end numbers) have had more instances of disappointing
seasons. To use this tool properly we need to compare apples to apples.
Comparing Albert Pujols' consistency factor to that of Geoff Jenkins
doesn't aid us in any manner, as Pujols is a much more valuable player and
this will not come as a surprise to anyone in your draft either.

Here's the example we used last year:

As an example of
comparing similar commodities, two players who had similarities in value
heading into the 2007 draft are Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu. Here's what
they did in 2006:

Abreu:
98 R/15 HR/107 RBI/.297 BA/30 SB

Wells: 91 R/32
HR/106 RBI/.303 BA/17 SB

Wells HR totals are
offset almost evenly to Abreu's SB totals. I've seen these players valued
as almost interchangeable and their ADP (Average Draft Position - included
in our
projections software) shows that Abreu on average is being taken 7
spots ahead of Wells. I believe this gap should be wider. Consider that
Wells produced above average results in 12 of his 26 playing weeks last
year (38 percentile), while Abreu produced above average production in 17
of his 26 weeks (83 percentile). Sure their production was similar last
year, but Abreu has produced on a more consistent basis which is inline
with his 3 year average (91 percentile), while Wells is only in the 52
percentile over the last 3 years. This inconsistency brings to light his
2005 and 2004 campaigns when he averaged .270 and 80 Runs scored (part of
which can be blamed on his poor OBA these years).

My Bottom line: Without
any other factors to consider, and based on these consistency indicators,
I would much rather ride with Abreu this year than I would with Wells.

I'm not ready to say that
my call here, was exactly as expected. Although Wells went on and had a
very poor year, one forecast is definitely not sound empirical evidence. However looking back there were many players who performed well the prior year
without a favorable consistency factor only to reverse fate the
following year...and this number was larger than those who followed up
with a second strong season. Of the top 75 fantasy producers in 2006, the
following 18 did it with a consistency of less than 50% (13 weeks or
less). These include Rafael Furcal,
Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, Gary Matthews Jr, Paul Konerko, Juan Pierre,
Raul Ibanez, Todd Helton, Adam Dunn, Brian Giles, Nick Swisher, Kevin
Youkilis, Bill Hall, Brian Roberts, Troy Glaus, Richie Sexson, Orlando
Cabrera, & Orlando Hudson.

Of these 18, only 6
improved on their previous season (Juan Pierre, Todd Helton, Adam Dunn,
Kevin Youkilis, Brian Roberts, Orlando Cabrera). 12 did not. The importance of playing the percentages can
not be overstated, and when you can favorably swing the percentages to the tune of
2/1....you've got a solid indicator.

Over the next few weeks
we're going to post some player lists relating to consistency factors
which should allow us to better understand it's impact as a forecasting
aid on draft day.

If you have yet to
register with
us for the 2008 season, consistency factors are conveniently listed
for each player in the Forecaster section of the projections screen (see
below) and also are listed as a sort-able column as well.

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, and can be heard on their nationally broadcast SiriusXM (ch87) Fantistics Sports Radio Show. Anthony has an MBA and worked as a quantitative analyst within the investment industry from 1986-1999. Transplanted from New York (still a Mets and Giants Fan), he currently lives in Arizona with his wife Mary , daughter Hannah, and son Adam. Having won a "trophy room" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 25 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.