Kingdom of fear (and favour)

How is the new monarch of Thailand, Maha Vajiralongkorn, ruling his kingdom since the death of his father, the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej?

Fear.

The overwhelming success of Bhumibol’s reign has evidently become an entrapment for Vajiralongkorn, who has failed to follow in the footsteps of his much-revered father. Vajiralongkorn is the mirror image of Bhumibol. Based on this assessment, some analysts have expected Vajiralongkorn to be a ‘weak king’, precisely because of his lack of moral authority, divinity and popularity once enjoyed by Bhumibol.

Bhumibol’s moral authority was made a sacred instrument that underpinned his effective reign for seven decades. It legitimised his political position, so as to place it above what were perceived to be ill elements, including ‘dirty’ politics and ‘corrupt’ politicians. Members of the network monarchy had worked indefatigably to ensure the strengthening of his moral authority, through vigorous glorification programs in the media and national education, about the devoted king who strove for his people’s better livelihood. It was his moral authority which was partly exploited to justify the use of the lese-majeste law.

Now that Bhumibol has passed from the scene, a critical question emerges: how has Vajiralongkorn forged new alliances and eliminated enemies and critics in order to consolidate his reign?

Without his own charisma, or baramee, Vajiralongkorn has exercised fear to command those serving him instead of trusting or convincing them to work for him based on love and respect, as argued by a recent article of Claudio Sopranzetti. Vajiralongkorn has used fear to build order, perhaps similar to the way in which mafias, or chaophos, operate their empire.

Vajiralongkorn reigns as a monarch whose authority is based upon fear, and as one who cares little about people around him. Fear is a tool to threaten his subordinates and drive them to the edge to keep them compliant and docile. He has kept his subordinates in line with unnecessary, yet rigid, rules, from professing a cropped haircut style to a tough fitness regime. But such rules possibly reflect Vajiralongkorn’s own state of fear. He does not know who will betray him at the end of the day. His intimidating image is his only source of personal power — but he also realises how fragile it could be.

Even prior to the death of Bhumibol, Vajiralongkorn relied on fear for his own rearrangement of power. He allowed a faction under his control to purge another perceived to be disloyal to him. The cases of Suriyan Sucharitpolwong, or Moh Yong, Police Major Prakrom Warunprapha, and Major General Phisitsak Seniwongse na Ayutthaya — all of whom worked for Vajiralongkorn, most visibly in the ‘Bike for Mum’ project — reiterated that death could become a reward for those who breached his trust. Each of these individuals were given a nickname. For example, Phisitsak was called by Vajiralongkorn, Mister Heng Rayah (เฮง ระย้า), although exactly why he was named as such remained unknown.

Within Vajiralongkorn’s palace, Dhaveevatthana, a prison was built. The Ministry of Justice, during the Yingluck administration, announced on 27 March 2013 that a 60 square metre plot of land within Dhaveevathana was allocated for the building of what is now called the Bhudha Monthon Temporary Prison. This ‘temporary’ prison has been legalised, potentially allowing the king to detain anyone under its roof legally. Adjacent to the prison is a crematorium. Major General Phisitsak died inside the prison and was cremated there too.

His former consort, Srirasmi, has been put under house arrest in a Rachaburi house, shaved and dressed as a nun. Her family members and relatives were imprisoned on dubious charges. Pongpat Chayaphan, a former Royal Thai Police officer who was the head of the country’s Central Investigation Bureau, was convicted in 2015 from profiting from a gambling den, violating a forestry-related law, and money laundering. Srirasmi is his niece. Earlier in 2014, Police General Akrawut Limrat, a close aide to Pongpat, was also found dead following a mysterious fall from a building.

Vajiralongkorn’s estranged sons, Juthavachara, Vacharaesorn, Chakriwat and Vatcharawee — who live in exile in the United States with their mother Sujarinee Vivacharawongse, née Yuvathida Polpraserth — have been banned from coming home. These extreme punitive measures reiterated the fact that fear once again functions as a controlling device over his subjects, even those with royal blood.

Vajiralongkorn also reorganised the Privy Council, appointing new faces from the Queen’s Guard, to entrench his alliance with the junta. He has also let General Prem Tinsulanonda remain in his position of President of the Privy Council, arguably, as part of using fear to keep his enemy close to him, so that Prem could be closely monitored and work under his direct command. And recently, he punished one of his close confidants, Police General Jumpol Manmai, a former deputy national police chief, labelling him as the extremely evil official so as to justify the humiliation caused to him. Jumpol was arrested and imprisoned. His head was shaved, like Moh Yong and Prakrom, and was sent to undergo a military training within the Dhaweevattana Palace. Like Pongpat, he was found guilty of forest encroachment.

Meanwhile, some have been promoted, some demoted. Speedy promotions in the military and the police were enjoyed by the king’s new favourites. Those irritating him were thrown out — but before that, they were humiliated on the pages of the newspapers. Vajiralongkorn purged the entire Vajarodaya clan, one of the most prominent families of palace officials serving under Bhumibol. Disathorn Vajarodaya was stripped of his power in the palace, forced to re-enter a military training at the age of 53, and is now working as a house maid who serves drinks to guests of the new king. Meanwhile, Suthida Vajiralongkorn na Ayutthaya, a former Thai Airways air crew, was promoted to the rank of a general. She is currently the number one mistress of Vajiralongkorn. But the life of Suthida is not without competition. Colonel Sineenat Wongvajirapakdi, aka Koi, who is a nurse, is reportedly becoming his number one favourite. A video clip of Vajiralongkorn and Koi, both wearing skimpy crop tops barely covering fake tattoo wandering a Munich mall, was viral on the Internet.

In the political domain, Vajiralongkorn directly meddled in the drafting of the new constitution, requesting an amendment to boost royal powers. The changes included removing the need for him to appoint a regent when he travels overseas. More importantly, a clause that gave power to the constitutional court and other institutions in the event of an unforeseen crisis was removed. But by removing it, the king’s political role was significantly reinforced.

Because of his direct interference in Thai political affairs, it is naïve to assume that Vajiralongkorn is simply a mad king, clueless about running his kingdom. His meddling has unveiled his desire to solidify his power at this critical juncture in politics, forging ties with his allies while deposing his enemies and critics through brutal means.

Fear — for one’s own freedom, or one’s own personal safety — is a key weapon of Vajiralongkorn’s in keeping elites around him in line, alongside the longstanding use of the lese-majeste law to curb public discontentment against him. For instance, the military government chose to punish Jatupat ‘Phai’ Boonpattararaksa for sharing a BBC article on the biography of Vajiralongkorn, underscoring the use of fear to warn the public to stay away from his private life. Jatupat is the only person to be imprisoned for sharing the article.

On the eve of the recent Songkran holidays, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society released an announcement to forbid the public from following, befriending and sharing content of three critics of the monarchy: myself, the exiled historian Somsak Jeamteerasakul, and former reporter Andrew MacGregor Marshall. Fear has now been ulitised at a national level, in cyberspace, to frighten ordinary social media users. In failing to obey the royal prerogatives, some could be jailed, like Jatupat.

But fear can fall away. Overused and frequently exploited, fear will eventually loose its spell. Exactly how long Vajiralongkorn will continue to count on fear to build up his power remains uncertain. What is certain today is the fact that Thailand is no longer a smiling country. It is a country in deep anxiety.

93 Responses

Well, this is not how I have previously read the situation, but it pains me to think now that my previous view was more wishful thinking than reality.

I think Pavin may be right in what he says and in what he almost says. Depressing though rational people may find it to be. Thailand has spent many years peering into the abyss, and now it seems that the abyss is peering back.

A while back I recognised that the new boy had a choice. Either he would forge his own reputation in the face of the dismal one he has created at the moment, and would provide a contrast with his wretched father insofar as pretending to foster democracy and in fact, pretending to give a rat’s ass about the Thai people in general, which was all smoke and mirrors to conceal the real motivation of restoring the wealth of the absolute monarchy (successful) and then restoring to actual absolute monarchy (unsuccessful but still trying).

It seems he chose to continue as his father has started, and the replacement of the plaque in BKK is a signal of just that to my mind.

If right, then I have a very dismal assessment of the outcome, which I believe will surely result in a civil war followed by the abolition of the monarchy in Thailand. I personally would not want to see this, I would prefer to see a more enlightened monarchy but that would require the armed forces, police and all courts to be mercilessly reformed.

If the old soothsayer’s prediction of there being no Rama 10 is to be fulfilled, then this has to reach a tipping point by the end of this year. Happy to wait and see. I’d be interested to avoid having to run the gauntlet of ridicule and scorn from some of our more scholarly brothers and sisters though, and AMM may well have a different (and probably better) assessment, – he is normally more on signal than I am, I only have only a few arcane tools at my disposal than he has, and they can be unreliable.

I thank Ahjan Pavin Chachavalpongun for this article and for putting up with all the persecution it takes to just be a historian or a journalist these days. I am very concerned to know if ex-Princess Srirasmi is still alive. I have heard that she is dead. We should continue to demand that the palace or the junta produce a recent picture of her to prove she is still alive and well. Furthermore, Jumpol Manmai should not be in the secret prison on the King’s property and this prison should be searched to find who is in it. The Thai Alliance for Human Rights would love to know how many of the disappeared are actually at this prison. The Thai Alliance for Human Rights did translate the public documents proving the existence of the secret prison, after they were pointed out by Khun Somsak Jeamteerasukal. You can see the original and translated documents here and how they match the google image of the palace: https://www.facebook.com/notes/ann-norman/the-disappearance-of-jumpol-manmai-held-at-a-secret-prison-at-the-kings-palace/10155209326538586/

I believe the subject of the issue is Srirasmi. However, with regard to Sirindhorn, Andrew did suggest that she might flee to China AFTER the cremation of the Rama IX. After the dust has settled, so to speak,il it would appear.

Excellent and brave article. Thank you. Meanwhile, we now know that the 1932 commemoration plaque was torn out on April 5, the day before Vajiralongkorn signed the new constitution. This is an explicit declaration of war by King X and the royalists against those who want a free and fair Thailand.

Andrew MacGregor Marshall – you’ve got NO PROOF whatsoever that Vajiralongkorn had ANYTHING whatsoever to do with that icon’s removal. There could be any number of players here, playing out any number of strategies, scams, schemes, scenarios, etc. Analysis from you would be more interesting than hot-off-your-head declarative statements.

Chris, I’m never sure how seriously to take your comments, although you are certainly prolific. The new plaque is now protected by a special fence with royal insignia, which should remove any lingering doubt about who was responsible.

So I humbly hereby petition His Majesty – in the Siamese style of prostration before Monarch, and the Rhamakhaeng Stone – to have the current plaque replaced by one dedicated to King Chulalongkorn, Siam’s – and Thailand’s – greatest democrat. Such replacement would be far better international PR, public relations.

you are an idiot. if you are a westerner as your name suggests i would take a more realistic view of the gamut of thai royalty/politics. As a westerner it behooves you to defend democracy, not condone the antithesis.

I must say that is seems slightly ironic to me that any true democrat could see this plaque as a Symbol of democracy.

It is/was not. It literally marked the exact spot where a Thai general stood to proclaim Thailand’s first military coup and to inform Thais that the coup leaders would give them a Constitution.

It was/is a symbol of the very dictatorship that Thailand has never since been able to escape. That Military Coup set the stage for every single coup d’état that has followed it. Democracy does not and never will come from the hands of a general who rules by right of the gun.

The current military dictator should instal a plaque to his ” Coup ” so that 80 or so years from now some fools can worship it as a
” symbol of democracy “

“When I write about a bit of history, it means exactly what I choose it will mean, no more, no less.”

And if any fool were to stand up and play Alice to ask whether history can be made to mean so many different things, one group would ask “Are you Thai?” and the other would call you either an angry troll (white male variety) or a royalist apologist.

It isn’t just in Trump’s America that post-factuality serves both sides.

He was the “father of our country” not of democracy. After all a country that denied women the right to vote could never be justly described as a democracy. Not to mention all those black people who were property. I know history books are boring but we should all read them anyway.

The key word, that makes all the difference here is “constitution”. George Washington was a military man who believed in one. Phibul may have believed in one in 1932, but like most Thai generals, he was easily corrupted by crawlers. The establishment of a Constitution was the key platform of the People’s Party of 1932. The royalists have always despised and feared constitutions, because under one, the traditional power hierarchy would have to submit to laws. Once the people come to respect and contribute to laws more than patronage (which they contribute to by grovelling), the foundation of the state changes from feudalism towards democracy, and royal power is diminished. Laws then apply to all of the old beneficiaries of feudalism, from the King who under feudalism cannot commit a crime no matter how tyrannical he is, right down to the lowest official whose main income is money and favours extorted from the poor. Even when the powerful appoint lying stooges to the court that interprets the constitution, nobody can hide or defend the lies, which a clear constitution will inevitably expose to the world.

The failure, so far, of constitutionalism in Thailand is due to lack of respect for, or involvement in laws among ordinary Thais, who still cling to patronage. That is ineffective behaviour, of course, as the great majority are better off when they live in a law-abiding society where laws are shaped by people’s representatives in a way that enables the population to live in peace and harmony with each other and with the rest of nature. A cynic may ask, “Where is that achieved?” The answer is: nowhere yet, but some countries are closer to it than others; there is no guarantee it will ever be achieved, but if we don’t to a large extent in the quite near future, we’re fucked.

Way to go, Pavin.
People need to keep on speaking out and speaking out. All hope aside, this horrible thing is unfolding under the eyes of the international community. The terror — and that’s what it is — has swept up people even remotely involved with the country.
I don’t know anyone who isn’t afraid. Except, perhaps, for clueless tourists.
Tourists handing their dollars over to the Land of Smiles is like visitors handing over their money to Kim Jong-un.
Unfortunately, this unfolding reign of terror, hidden behind the facade of funerary rites and respect for the past king, could not exist without Rama X’s billion dollar inheritance, much of which was accumulated during the reign of the sainted Rama IX, much of which is salted abroad. Nor could it exist without decades of US support for monarchy and military, making democracy a near impossiblity.

Follow the money. Keep the spotlight on the king and his prisons, the unexplained deaths, the fate of Srirasmi and BBC reporter Jonathan Head, the terrified royal servants. Most of all, keep the spotlight on the relatives of the people who speak up, hostages in what is now a Hostage Nation.
This is not only a reign of terror, it’s a reign of cowards who go after wives and children, siblings, parents, elders, teenagers in their quest for money and power.

For those who don’t know about the Thai King. I am so proud to say that Thai king is the richest king in the world Hooray!. Yes. Queen Elizabeth is 2nd. (but Thai people earn less than 10USD is more than 80% of the population ) and people are so poor.
and we have to pay tax for this dude to enjoy his luxuary parties with his mistresses in Germany for more than millions USD a year.

Fear only slowly looses its grip, and rarely goes out of fashion. What this long time observer of the Thai political scene finds most remarkable is the rapidity of Vajiralongkorn’s actions, ranging from the exorcising of the Vajarodaya family to the crafting of constitutional amendments to, perhaps, the recent replacement of the 1932 Siamese Revolution memorial plaque. It appears to me that he has been honing a plan upon his succession to the throne for a very long time, hiding his guile, at least from me, with the facade of a dolt. I am both impressed with Vajiralongkorn’s exercise of power and very, very afraid for the future of the Kingdom.

Insightful. It needs to be pointed out that Vajiralongkorn is himself in something of a fearful bind – I.e. his German residency. Thus, the ban on following Marshall, Pavin, and Somsak currently ONLY applies to Thai citizens. If widened, it risks jeopardising Vajiralongkorn’s German residency, which he may need for health. Bavarian air infinitely cleaner than Bangkok’s – both literally, and politically. Speaking of the latter – does Thailand’s Privy Councillor necessarily, constitutionally “work” under the King’ “direct command” ?

“Members of the public are asked to refrain from following, contacting, spreading or engaging in any activity that results in spreading content and information of the persons mentioned in this announcement on the internet system, social media; either directly or indirectly,” the statement read.

In commenting on postings by Thai colleagues we are faced with linguistic / cultural challenges. We cannot refer to the person as “Mr Smith” but will inevitably use a first name (exacerbated by the difficulty for the uncultivated ‘farang’ to pronounce Thai family names). As a result use of first names may reveal simply convenience or, as is my case, degrees of intellectual admiration and academic fraternal affection.

So, Dr Pavin has once again demonstrated the characteristics that has forced upon him his exile: intellectual courage and intellectual lucidity, the latter stemming from his understanding of the system from within. Not simply a question of Oriental inscrutability… but basic anthropological understanding.

As an IR / comparative politics person I am excited (as a social scientist) and appalled – not to say scared – as a citizen to see parallels with Vajiralongkorn’s behavior and that of “The Donald” (aka as the present president of the US). Being an appalling sexual predator, having the tax payer finance your dereliction of duty (Florida . Munich) can all be camouflaged by a cloud of accusations of ‘false news’ or, the Thai equivalent, launching a ‘lese majesté’ case.

Yes, checks and balances do not necessarily work, Yes General Prayuth, like those in Berlin in 1933 you may have thought you he had supported a “useful idiot” to advance their own interests… but they may simply have created a monster capable on undermining their own projects and, ultimately, losing all.

What Pavin I trust will tease out in further research is the distinction between two things. On the one hand, Vajiralongkorn’s efficacy at the elite level (the great con performed on the junta and the reassuring sops offered to the Bangkok Establishment) and, on the other, by dint of who he is and what he does, the destruction of the useful myth created by his father, as the Monarch as somehow the ‘father of his people’.

I agree with all of what Pavin said, but only thing is that we should also consider broader picture of Thai political economy. Thailand has been run under absolutism anymore and Vajiralongkorn is not the main decider of public policy or directions of development, same as the case of Bhumibol. I do not think the leader group of capitalist scaring any characteristic of the new king, instead, it is the recent difficulty to accumulate of surplus value. While the neighboring countries have been able to increase an economic benefit, early leader in the region like Thailand seem paralyzed to do the same thing. So if there is any fear that could frighten anyone in Thailand, even King himself, it is the fear of a downfall of economic and its related results.

It’s unusual to see anyone posting on a Thai-related article who recognizes that the vast majority of Thai people are not living their lives in relation to news from the upper reaches of society.

Ignoring the overall slowdown in the Thai economy, two issues that come to mind for folks not obsessing over real-life soaps are the “street clearances” being undertaken in Bangkok and the ongoing strength of the Thai baht.

In one case, it is the BMA pursuing a policy of “taking back the sidewalks” that is depriving thousands of their livelihoods and in the other SMEs that rely on exports and compete primarily on price are being punished so that certain domestic-oriented industries and investors in the SET benefit.

Both have negative effects on the “lower orders” and both are policies (or lack of such) that have nothing to do with whose uncle gets offed in the dining room with a candlestick when the family’s golden goose is no longer welcome in the Big Bad’s bed.

As we see all around the neoliberal world at the moment, issues that would once have been understood to relate to economics and the exploitation of the poor and would therefore fall under the category of politics are being reframed as “identity” issues or ignored altogether in favor of Tales from the Crypt and the 100 families struggling to stay in there.

The commentariat dealing with Thai issues in the international press and doing the circuit of conferences and closed-door talk shows has never had it so good, of course, because the “framing” of Thai politics as a spin-off from the Twilight series or Vampire Lestat certainly gains more interest than dry analyses of how the economy is being rigged to siphon more money upwards and inwards to Bangkok ever would.

It would be hilarious if it weren’t so sordid, really.

In Thailand, we are told it is “ultraroyalism” and a bad bad man that are the source of problems that only “democracy” can fix.

In democratic Indonesia, an even more unequal nation than Thailand, we are to believe that the problems are related to Islam and racial/ethnic prejudice.

There are even those who have suggested that democracy is too weak a form of governance to stand up to the greed and corruption of the oligarchy in Indonesia. We certainly see the weakness of democracy as a promoter of justice in the US these days.

And not that long ago, in this forum, the usual suspects were chortling over how Burma was going to be showing Thailand how democracy was done.

But with an ongoing genocide, reignited civil wars, and a false idol (created of course by the same folks who are demonizing Thailand at the moment) crashing to the pavement like a statue of Saddam, one wonders just what it is that Myanmar could teach Thailand about good governance and democracy.

I suspect there are more political prisoners in Myanmar’s “model” democracy than in the horrorshow of gothic Thailand, but hey… who’s counting?

Democratically-elected Duterte has really outdone democratically-elected Thaksin where the competition to murder citizens by death squad is concerned and the present junta in Thailand has yet to come even close, so maybe we will have to wait for an election to get a real contender in Thailand?

in removing the historic plate { Khana Ratsadon’s mark, a metal pin which was embedded on the street at the Roya Plaza by the Khana Ratsadon (the People’s Party), who led the forced-change from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy on 24 June 1932.} , the junta has proven itself to be no better than the Taliban destroying Buddhist statues .

But WHO in the junta – or elsewhere elite – removed the plaque ? To me this has many of the hallmarks of Germany’s 1933 Reichstag burning, which enabled Hitler absolute power. Historians still debate who lit that fire. But we know who benefitted. Who among Thailand’s elite now benefit most ? Certainly NOT Vajiralongkorn, who until this, was plain sailing towards Coronation Day, after Bumiphol’s Cremation. What fire gets lit next – destruction of Bangkok’s Democracy Monument ? That would really set the cat among the pigeons.

Thanks to professor Pavin for this excellent article that shows the sad situation endured today by the Thai people . It is my strong wish to return to my beloved Thailand some day, as soon as the Thai people frees itself from the chains of the Royalist-Military dictatorship and ushers a new and free Thai Democratic Republic !

That’ very ture . I am Thai who knew most of Thai king behave but I fear to speak out this topic in the public speaking even mentioned his name I still in fear. Thanks pavin to speak this out to the world on to know.

On 19 April 2017, Pol Gen Srivara Ransibrahmanakul, the Deputy chief of the Royal Thai Police (RTP), revealed that the Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) filed a complaint against Watana Muangsook, a politician from Pheu Thai Party, for breaching the Computer Crime Act.

The TCSD accused him of posting false information on Facebook that the 1932 Revolution plaque is a ‘national heritage’ in order to call for people to demand its return, adding that the post might also incite chaos.

The Southern Bangkok Criminal Court on Monday acquitted former Pheu Thai MP Watana Muangsook of a charge of computer crime brought against him by the army over comments posted online critical of the military government.

On 26 February 2017, Watana Muangsook, an embattled Pheu Thai politician, posted on his Facebook account that a military commander of the 21st Infantry Regiment had summoned him for a discussion.

After a two-hour long discussion with Lt Gen Apirat Kongsompong the next day, he told the media that the officer mainly asked him about his opinions on national reconciliation.

During the discussion, Watana denounced the junta’s reconciliation plan, saying that true reconciliation cannot begin until the military acknowledge that they themselves are a party to the political conflict.

Reconciliation would be more attainable if people had been given opportunities to participate in the process of drafting the constitution, said Watana.

“Amid the mystery of what happened, this object has unexpectedly created a new memory to welcome the new [junta-sponsored] constitution of Thailand, which is a national embarrassment,” Pinkaew Laungaramsri, Asst Prof of Anthropology in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Chiang Mai University, said of the disappearance of the 1932 Revolution plaque.

I just can’t understand why this is still an issue. In trying to conclude who was responsible, there are a very few factors to consider:

1. Who would benefit? The answer is clear.
2. Who would have the ability to order the CCTV cameras to be non-functional on some bogus pretence or another? The answer is clear.
3. Who would have all peripheral parties terrified of seeming to be involved and remaining silent? The answer is clear. When did you ever hear of a Thai ‘pooyay’ being silent about anything after shoving a microphone in their face?
4. Who would try to calm it all down by saying it isn’t important, though it was seemingly important enough to do in the first place? The answer is clear.

The new boy wouldn’t do it himself, he would instruct his poodle PM to get it done and then sod off to the lakeside palace the Thai people paid for.

So why is it still the subject of debate? Because Thais love to argue how many angels can dance on the point of a pin and other pointless topics. Thais do pointless pretty well, it’s one of the very few things they’re good at.

Two activists detained after promoting search for missing revolution plaque

On 20 April 2017, Boonsin Yokthip, a representative from the Dharma-based Democracy Club, filed a complaint to Dusit Police Station. He asked the police to search for the 1932 Revolution memorial plaque, saying the plaque is a national treasure commemorating the birth of Thailand’s constitution.

Boonsin told media that he was aware the action put him at the risk of being arrested. He added that he had actually wanted security officers to detain him so he could try changing the attitudes of authorities themselves about democracy and the constitution.

After police interrogated him for two hours, Boonsin and a friend, Santiphong Winurat, were brought to the 11th Military Circle to undergo a so-called ‘attitude adjustment’ session.

“The authorities are so kind. They are giving me a ride so I don’t have to walk in the hot weather,” Boonsin joked to media before being taken away.

All this tyrannical behaviour stems from the fear and loathing that grips the upper part of the Thai absolutist hierarchy. As Andrew MacGregor Marshall has shown, much of it has been split for many years into irreconcilable factions once led by the irreconcilable Bhumibol and Sirikit, both descendants of Rama V. The deeply fascist, paranoid, and corrupt Sirikit faction now supports the paranoid and corrupt Vajiralongkorn. The less corrupt, but deeply self-righteous, “l’état c’est nous”, but fading faction once supporting Bhumibol now favour the diligent Sirindhorn. Both have their own military bully-boy factions. Both know the people despise and fear Vajiralongkorn and would welcome Sirindhorn. Both know the contest has no rules, and has a good chance of being bloody. Perhaps the more historically informed Bhumibol faction is more acutely aware that a bloody and necessarily deeply unseemly conflict will discredit the Chakri family, the monarchy, and anti-democratic Thai political culture altogether.

The plaque gesture may have been an attempt to promote unity by appealing to one of the few sentiments the two factions have in common: loathing of democracy, and fear of the power over them given to the courts and to elected politicians by any serious constitution. Fear and hatred of Thaksin is another thing that is plugged relentlessly because that also unites them. In case anybody thinks Vajiralongkorn retains any loyalty to Thaksin, they should think again. Loyalty is not in his character. Nobody hates and denies a creditor more than a dishonest debtor.

This theme of Chakri division raises the possibility of the existence of a third, anti-democratic, unity faction, one that does not take sides in the family conflict, and one which the two Chakri factions know they need. Prayut’s survival probably indicates that he is a senior member. Intense promotion of unity has long existed in the military, which is likely to be at the core of the anti-democratic unity faction. The fear in the hearts of both the anti-democratic unity faction, and of the old, “l’état c’est nous” faction stems from Vajiralongkorn’s instability. Will he precipitate the conflict by outrageous favouritism and promotion to leadership of widely distrusted and despised members of the military?

After the article ran, Pavin learned from a number of credible sources that the new king would seek to “manage” him, which in Thai vernacular usually means he would seek to kill his critic.

“So the warning is credible given the credibility of the source,” Pavin told Asia Sentinel. “Someone may come after me in Japan, although my friend believes it will be difficult because of where I live. But they could attack me when I travel overseas, that would be more likely.

Bravo, Acharn Pavin, for having the courage, academic integrity, the conscience, the chutzpah, to say it like it is. For informing and keeping us informed of “THE TRUTH” of what is transpiring in Bangkok in the present time, as Thais wake up to the reality of this pervert, hedonistic, power hungry, immoral, vengeful, despised Rama X, who’s reign of terror has only just begun.

I like what Christine had to say in her comments, once again on target and correlates with what I believe as well, how it is being played out before our eyes.

One cannot even begin to take note of so much more hideous acts that Rama X has done, that is out of the public eye, hidden behind the scenes and covered up, as a result of his coterie of hand picked guards, who do his bidding, despite living in fear of his mood swings, and selfish and self centered whims. But as history has shown us time and time again, the veil will be torn down one day and everything will be uncovered and laid bare for the world to see. A day of reckoning is fast approaching and the whole truth will be exposed, as “the wheels of justice, although they grind slowly, they grind exceedingly fine.”

I am deeply concerned and saddened of all that has transpired but was never under the illusion, or naive that Sia O, will change. It was just a matter of time before he showed his “true” colors. And many are trembling in fear at the prospect of what awaits any and all who upset him in any way, form or manner.

I do want to stress that Acharn Pavin take extra precautions about his whereabouts, esp. during his travels, as this “devil” is mad as hell and raging, thirsty for revenge, to silence any and all critics, for being exposed, in Munich and elsewhere, and has let loose his cronies to do the dirty work of silencing his critics like Acharn Pavin, Somsak and Andrew Marshall. It all goes to show how insecure, mad as hell, vengeful Rama X is.

How will this sad saga end? History has shown time and time again, that it will not end well. The billions socked away overseas, the depraved and hedonistic lifestyle and the vengeful attitude and behavior will lead to his ultimate downfall and horrible demise.

It’s sad to see how his father, the previous king’s reign ended, holed up on the top floor of Siriraj Hospital for years, alone and sidelined, suffering and in despair, of what his son has become and how his nation was staring into the abyss. And the fate of the Queen, who has been one of the main reasons behind all this turmoil for decades, is now suffering the consequences of her conniving and maneuvering behind the scenes to control the outcome. She is now reaping what she has sowed for decades, and it is a pretty sad sight I might add.

As I’ve said before, Thailand is a dynamite keg waiting to erupt, meaning, the millions of hard working Thais will not take all this repression, suppression, autocratic, dictatorial, illegitimate, coercion, living in fear and trembling, for much longer. They will eventually feel compelled to speak up, to rise up and take to the streets, and though it may start small, the spark will turn into a raging fire, it will burn and bring everything down. And the elites and royalists, will flee overseas as is so often the case, and the reign of terror and the chapter on Rama X, the Chakri Dynasty, will come to a horrible end.

There’s nothing particularly ground-breaking in Pavin’s piece here. As soon as I saw the title I knew exactly what would follow. Unfortunately Pavin offers no new insights, no new thinking, and there’s nothing of note in his work that helps take the discussion forward beyond the long-established and fairly obvious “Thai monarchy bad” take. It’s pretty clear that they isn’t much difference between Bhumipol and Vajiralongkorn. We’re just witnessing a continuity project.

What keeps this degenerative family in “power” is the real meat and potatoes here. Figure that out – rather than continually repeating ad infinitum “monarchy bad” – and maybe, just maybe, some proper political change might be possible.

I can understand the ennui, Same ole same ole… I know how you feel, But a part of counter-indoctrination (deprogramming if you will), is to constantly repeat the truth where the programming was achieved by constantly repeating the lie.

Even the same ole same ole can have a usefulness, though to take up your cudgel, I doubt that was Pavin’s intention. Even so…… many things can be achieved without an awareness of how they’re achieved being necessary.

Some years ago I was told (by someone claiming to be close to a palace insider), that when the old boy died, the son would quickly fly away – probably to Europe, for fear of his life.

Might be partly true, in that it’s not hard to imagine a situation in which he needs to acclimatise to his new power slowly, and think how best to exercise it. Plus all of the whats and hows of achieving his objectives – which I no longer believe might be useful to Thailand except insofar as they move the country further or more quickly towards an upheaval.

Who knows? Maybe he will understand that the way he appears to be going is unsustainable in the 21st Century, even in a feudal society. No harm in hoping…

I think Pavin is getting a bit of a swollen head. Is he on the Junta’s radar? Yes, he’s become an annoyance to the generals. But a assassin sent by the king of Thailand? No. I would be surprised if Rama X has even heard of him.

There is a real danger in demonizing Rama X of forgetting the murders commited in the name of Bumipol, his utter right wing support of military massacre , venal corrupt accumulation of wealth and land stolen from the people and disrespect for the common people. He was evil and Rama X is a chip off the old block.

I think we can end up putting too much blame on individuals. To a rational person, they are, after all, mere products of genes and environment. Confucius gave us a better idea of how to handle the matter effectively, when he said, “To attack evil as evil, and not as evil of a particular man, is that not the way to reform the depraved?” The evil is absolute monarchy. That is what has shaped the bad behaviour of Thai kings. Some, those with little sense of duty, are bound to be worse in that unrestrained role than the others. Whether they have one or not depends on upbringing. Bhumibol had a sense of duty and Vajiralongkorn has remarkably little. Given that no two-year-old has one, we can put sense of duty down to environment. Tractability can be put down to genes but sense of duty is a different thing. Sooner or later one has to make a stand on principle. Bhumibol’s father was a diligent public health professional, so this seems to be a Mahidol trait, one inherited by Sirindhorn. Sirikit must have thought it a demeaning characteristic for a king (perhaps confusing it with tractability, and maybe Bhumibol had a fair bit of that too), and she seems to have gone to some trouble to ensure that her son did not acquire one.
The real evil that needs to be eliminated is the Thai absolute monarchy. It is even built on a lie that it is somehow “Constitutional”. The fact is that no senior member of the hierarchy would ever tolerate the power over them that would be given to the courts, or to elected politicians by a genuine constitution. All the constitutions have been fakes, except to some extent, for the 1997 one which produced the TRT phenomenon, and was disposed of in the usual way. The greatest evil is the lie in Thailand’s heart.

Indeed, and people should remember that, in general, the apple does not fall far from the tree. But the new head boy has a stronger will than his Dad, who was week and ineffectual; and easily dominated by Prem, his wife and many others. The new guy is altogether another kettle of fish.

Morgan – “Bumiphol weak and ineffectual” ?? You must be joking !! Bumiphol- with Generals Sarit and Prem – re-built Royal strength from weakness. And that is what his son has inherited. As the old saying goes: “greatness is built on the shoulders of giants”. Just ask those giants guarding the entrance to Bangkok palaces.

Well, that’s your opinion, I don’t share it. Among people who do not, it is considered axiomatic that the man was both corrupt and vulnerable to blandishments as well as money. He just loved flattery, especially when people told him he was a demi-God. Sadly, for him, the welfare of his people came a very poor second to his own wealth-generation if anything more than going through the motions was called for. Especially important was a policy of keep ’em poor and keep ’em stupid if people were to continue to conned into accepting the (largely self-proclaimed) hagiography.

As for Bhumipol and Prem building Royal strength, something in the order of 20,000 baht were diverted into royal wealth from the Thai economy for every man, woman and child in Thailand. Nothing to be proud of there I don’t think.

it’s important to recognise who was the organ-grinder and who was the monkey. Also to know which bottle contains the Kool-Aid. Before you drink from it.

Your view strongly suggests you have been a victim of the propaganda machine rather than an observer of it, so it’s worthwhile noting that those most vulnerable to conditioning tend not to be the sharpest knives in the drawer, which is why it has been so successful in Thailand, and why the ‘keep ’em poor, keep ’em stupid’ mechanisms were so important. Noting the state of Thai society, I doubt I would be very keen to admit I was steering the ship of state for the past 6+ decades.

Recently, when waiting at the gate at the airport, there was a repeating documentary about all the great deeds Rama IX had done to Thailand. I was surprised that in this whole documentary nothing was mentioned about his heir. There was nothing said that the new king is following his fathers great deeds! Isn’t the idealization of Rama IX and not to mentione the current king at all, a form of implicit critique?

Fair comment. I have noticed how very few of the obligatory photos of the royal couple (estranged through her adultery though they were – in public worshipped but in many cases, in private reviled) have been replaced with piccies of the new head boy. I had sort of written it off as a consequence of the ridiculously lengthy ‘period of mourning’, but I begin to think it’s more than just that. I also think that the genuine mourning of a few successfully propagandised Thais is not so widely shared as is assumed, and that many folk are quietly thankful that he’s gone in the security of their own homes.

This might be evidenced by the government’s hysterical and widespread application of the infamous and shameful clause 112. They were desperate to be in power to mould the images during the transition from thief to thug, and now we see why – not so many of the Thai people share the devotion that the armed forces do – not at all what the propagandists like to claim.

Perhaps not everyone in Thailand got to be as rich as Prayuth and Prawit did from state-sponsored corruption. Nothing generates devotion quite like being made unusually rich in return for armed muscle.

I was graduated from Thammasat ten year ago. Vijralongkorn was giving the degree certificate. We were told “Don’t look straight in eye, he will have you killed”. It was not a joke. I’m not sure why people now are so surprised. Really, it’s not new. Also, we had to pay 500 Baht.

I have loved Thailand and its people for many years, but I cannot return while these atrocities are going on. I can’t keep silent about this barbaric rule and so cannot risk stepping foot in the country again. A courageous article and courageous voices and journalism from those in exile.

It’s a pity that the comment section can’t be printed.
Quite a few thought-through comments in here!
Thanks for the article also – very courageous to write about these sensitive matters, this is journalism at it is supposed to be, respect!

I wonder if someone could fill me in on how this sort of thing gets to be “courageous”.

I imagine all these folks lined up in front of their computers watching the Kim Jung-Il compilation from Team America on YouTube, swilling beer and building up the “courage” to Tweet a link or make a comment.

Not from inside the DPRK of course. That might require a whole 6-pack.

Sorry to be so unserious while the darkness falls all around me here in Mordor.

As I see it, the writers of these pieces are NOT in Thailand and therefore run absolutely zero risk of anything other than not likely being allowed back without being arrested at any time in the future.

If the family members and relatives that they do and have put at risk have been consulted, been given assurances that they can ask the writer to desist if they feel the threat to them is not worth the candle, then it is these family members who are courageous, and the writers themselves who are simply lucky to have such brave relatives.

From my perspective, there is nothing courageous about causing others to be at risk and nothing courageous about sitting at a screen in another country posting rumors and speculation either here or in the international media that eats this sort of thing up.

More nuance and less Dr Evil wouldn’t interest anyone in the international media. Nervy to suggest otherwise, but hardly brave.

No country has ever attained freedom and justice without the bravery and the courage of its citizens, ready to face danger in order to free themselves from tyranny . Sooner or later the people of Thailand will have to rise against the royals and the generals who enslave them

I fundamentally disagree with Ajarn Pavin’s conclusion. Vajiralongkorn has made himself much weaker by these moves. He’s further antagonised the very, very powerful – who always hated him. If he had given strong indication he would do
Spanish King Juan Carlos moves to democracy, he might have saved himself. As it is, he’s cut off bridges to ANYONE who could save him – not least Thaksin. Not least the German government. And thereby his doctors – physical, and political.

Fully agree. Not least Thaksin, who was his one realistic hope of longevity. I’be . m beginning to hear opinions being voiced that suggest Puea Thai will once again triumph in an election. If they do, than God help this little man and his ‘interesting’ sense of self-importance.

And for the military thugs and their hangers-on, that sound you have begun to hear isn’t money being counted, it’s the gentle flutter of chickens coming home to roost. There are many who believe that vengeance is best eaten as a cold meal. Especially the Chinese, for who revenge is an article of faith.

He has been listening to the wrong whispers in his ear and will understand this too little and too late.

This article on NM so disrespect to King. Allow the new King some time and he is great. Pavin is not serious for academic. He is a joke for all real Thais in Thailand. No body takes this fake scholarship for serious. So sad that NM sinks this far. Pavin knows that this is not worthy. any evidence? None of course.

A Thai – I agree “allow the King some time”. But it would help if he gave some indication of being like the early Spain’s King Juan Carlos. This would STRENGTHEN the Monarchy. As for Pavin – nobody becomes a senior academic at highly prestigious Kyoto University, unless they are extremely well qualified.

When it comes to Thai issues, especially anything to do with either the monarchy or the junta, NM publishes comment after comment, some agonizingly long and ill-informed, that essentially all say the same thing.

Someone comes along and says the opposite with as much elan, as much reasoned argument, and in much fewer words, and you complain about lack of moderation.

New Mandala publishes ‘comment after comment’ because that’s what it does – it is a forum which invites and publishes comments. You might be surprised to be aware that nowhere in its rules does it say that comments must comply with your opinion, in fact nowhere in its rules does it mention Michael Wilson at all.

You mention that some posts are ‘agonisingly long’and I venture to suggest, because you appear not to have thought of it, is that some posts need a certain length in order to effectively make their point, Whether or not that point is correct, widely held, or even sensible, however it is your comment about ill-informed that is more important, because it is more pernicious, in my opinion.

Scholars, and those people with academic qualifications, rarely accuse other contributors of being ill-informed, and that is because a part of their education is to teach them better approaches and greater tolerance of ideas and opinionsthat may not agree with their own. Almost always, people who accuse others of being ill-informed without stating where the information is wrong, and without proposing different information which is demonstrably right and not just mere opinion, are usually only interested in implying that they themselves are better informed, which is sometimes true but more often than not, untrue. It’s also calculatedly offensive, but expressed in a pseudo-polite fashion in order to avoid the post not seeing the light of day at all courtesy of the moderators.

So, Michael, how about instead of just slagging off other people (a technique which is a barely disguised ad-hominem attack), you actually say what is wrong with what is said (that is not just a difference of opinion) and suggest an alternative, better knowledge.

The purpose of training to be an academic, very often trains people to be very un-academic, and sometimes even un-scholarly. An outstanding example of this is Prof Richard Dawkins, who although qualified as an academic, is widely perceived to be closed-minded, bigoted, and tolerant only of those people and opinions which agree with him and his. It is a mistake to believe that the effectiveness of training to be an academic is proved by a bunch of pieces of paper, because in most cases, those pieces of paper have been awarded because they comply with rules or opinions by academics whose qualifications may well be arguable. Advanced learning is not a perfect science, not even a perfect politics, (though it normally is highly political), but even so I have rarely heard a real academic call somebody ill-informed, and not actually mean that they’ve said something which does not comply with their own views but which can’t really be argued with sensibly, since it is after all, just another opinion.

In conclusion Michael I think this was one of the less useful posts that I have seen on New Mandala, and it is my opinion (my qualified opinion by the way), that you should feel embarrassed by it, since the psychology behind it shines through bright and clear.

I know full well who your comment was aimed at, Ralph, and you are right of course that I don’t consider his petty rant to be an example of “reasoned argument” or anything I would associate with “elan”.

Maybe you could get Ed or Alice or Trixie to explain to you what “irony” means and how that relates to my post. From what I remember of The Honeymooners, I’d recommend Alice. Her sarcasm also tended to fly right over Ralph’s head.

I think you’ll probably find that the terms ‘irony’ and ‘sarcasm’ are more-or-less interchangeable these days Ralph. Not that you were wrong, just that the distinction (and there is a fine distinction) is likely lost on Michael. Inter alia.

” a Thai ” has just as much a right to comment as anyone else on this blog. Whether you, I or Michael agree with him/her is irrelevant, he/she has a right to an opinion and there is nothing wrong with them expressing it in this comment section.

I saw nothing in her/his post that violated the rules. While it may distress some readers to learn that the Thai King is held in high esteem by many of his people, I find it rather odd that this would or should come as a shock to any of us.

Recently the birthday of the King was celebrated. I have not heard that a birthday speech was delivered, or that the King even was in Thailand during the celebrations. Other news indicate that the power and authority of the King has been extended considerably. Isn’t it a bit strange to have an absent head of state with increased political power?

About the Author

Pavin Chachavalpongpun is associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Japan, where he teaches Southeast Asian Politics and International Relations in Asia.

In late 2011, Pavin led a nationwide campaign to free a political prisoner, named Akong, who was accused of lese-majeste and was sentenced to 20 years in prison. Akong later died of cancer while still in prison.