Suppliers up 2010 iPad estimates to between 8-10 million

updated 09:50 am EDT, Mon March 29, 2010

by MacNN Staff

Analyst expects sales to be lower

There should be plenty of iPads available in 2010, even if the launch day supply is already exhausted, data from Asian suppliers is said to show. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty notes that the suppliers are now predicting shipments of 8 to 10 million units in 2010, far higher than the 5 million or so called for earlier. Of these 2.5 million are expected to ship by the end of May, several times more than the 750,000 suggested by Huberty's earlier estimates.

For every 1 million iPads shipped, says Huberty, Apple should be able to add about 25 cents to EPS. The analyst is however holding to a forecast of about 6 million in actual sales during 2010, which could leave plenty of tablets in stock for replacements, or spillover into 2011. These would likely be made to evaporate ahead of the next iPad launch, which should happen roughly a year from now given Apple's preference for annual cycles.

Huberty remarks that some investors are currently critical of the iPad, as there is no one killer app that demands the device. Apple is actually going after the sub-$800 notebook market, the analyst contends, which currently represents 30 million systems in the US and 120 million worldwide. People will ultimately come to the iPad because of a combination of books, magazines, videos and optimized apps, she concludes.

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TOTAL_COMMENTS Comments

I sure hope they can manage to sell nearly as many as they're going to make. I was thinking that Apple could manage to sell around five million iPads this year, but that was my high number. Hopefully, they're just making up this 8-10 million figure. Otherwise, Apple is really taking a huge risk for an almost unknown tablet market.

The sales for 2010 will only be limited by the production capacity, Apple will sell every iPad it can produce in 2010 with shortages throughout the year. The current 500.000 sales estimate for the launch day is only for the US, international sales and the 3G version have yet to begin.

Apple will sell about 50 million iPod Touch models and iPhones in 2010, the iPad could sell more than this when the price drops to about $399 next year and lower pricing the coming years. If annalists count the iPad in as a regular computer like they do with netbooks then Apple is well on its way to reclaim the computer market once more.

The stock price also reflects this, at $287 Apple will have passed MS's current market-cap and is already well past Google.

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