To understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy it becomes necessary to understand how structurally weak the Chinese economy was when created.

People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy -manufacturing- they do have economic strength.

However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.

Lets take a stroll and lightly discuss.

China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.

This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.

Any nations’ economic model is only as stable (or strong) as the underlying architecture or infrastructure of the country’s economic balance.

Think about economic strength and stability this way: If a nation was economically walled off from all other nations, can it survive? …can it sustain itself? …can it grow?

In the big picture – economic strength is an outcome of the ability of a nation, any nation, to support itself first and foremost. If a nations’ economy is dependent on other nation for itself to survive it is less strong than a nation whose economy is more independent.

Most Americans don’t realize it, but China is an extremely dependent nation.

When the central planning for the 21st century Chinese Economy was constructed, there were several critical cultural flaws, dynamics exclusive to China, that needed to be overcome in order to build their economic model. It took China several decades to map out a way to economic growth that could overcome the inherent critical flaws.

Critical Flaws To Exploit:

♦Because of the oppressive nature of the Chinese compliant culture, the citizens within China do not innovate or create. The “Compliance Mindset” is part of the intellectual DNA strain of a Chinese citizen.

Broadly speaking, the modern era Chinese are not able to think outside the box per se’ because the reference of all civil activity has been a history of box control by government, and compliance to stay (think) only within the approved box. The lack of intellectual thought mapping needed for innovation is why China relies on intellectual theft of innovation created by others.

American culture specifically is based around freedom of thought and severe disdain of government telling us what to do; THAT freedom is necessary for innovation. That freedom actually creates innovation.

Again, broadly speaking Chinese are better students in American schools and universities because the Chinese are culturally compliant. They work well with academics and established formulas, and within established systems, but they cannot create the formula or system themselves.

♦ The Chinese Planning Authority skipped the economic cornerstone. When China planned out their economic entry, they did so from a top-down perspective. They immediately wanted to be manufacturers of stuff. They saw their worker population as a strategic advantage, but they never put the source origination infrastructure into place in order to supply their manufacturing needs. China has no infrastructure for raw material extraction or exploitation.

China relies on: importing raw material, applying their economic skill set (manufacturing), and then exporting finished goods. This is the basic economic structure of the Chinese economy.

See the flaw?

Cut off the raw material, and the China economy slows, contracts, and if nations react severely enough with export material boycotts the entire Chinese economy implodes.

Again, we reference the earlier point: Economic strength is the ability of a nation to sustain itself. [Think about an economy during conflict or war] China cannot independently sustain itself, therefore China is necessarily vulnerable.

♦The 800lb Panda in the room is that China is arguably the least balanced economy in the modern world. Hence, China has to take extraordinary measures to secure their supply chain. This economic dependency is also why China has recently spent so much on military expansion etc., they must protect their vulnerable interests.

Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.

China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but China’s economy is also narrow.

China could have spent the time to create a broad-based economy, but the lack of early 1900’s foresight, in conjunction with their communist top-down totalitarian system and a massive population, led to central government decisions to subvert the bottom-up building-out and take short-cuts. Their population controls only worsened their long term ability to ever broaden their economic model.

It takes a population of young avg-skilled workers to do the hard work of building a raw material infrastructure. Mine workers, dredge builders, roads and railways, bridges and tunnels etc. All of these require young strong bodies. The Chinese cultural/population decisions amid the economic builders precluded this proactive outlook; now they have an aging population and are incapable of doing it.

This is why China has now positioned their economic system as dependent on them being an economic bully. They must retain their supply chain: import raw materials – export finished goods, at all costs.

This inherent economic structure is a weakness China must continually address through policies toward other nations. Hence, “One-Belt / One-Road” is essentially their ‘bully plan’ to ensure their supply chain and long-term economic viability.

This economic structure, and the reality of China as a dependent economic model, also puts China at risk from the effects of global economic contraction. But more importantly it puts them at risk from President Trump’s strategic use of geopolitical economic leverage to weaken their economy.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.

Historic Chinese cultural policy, the totalitarian control over expressed political sentiment and diplomacy through silence, is evident in the strategic use of the space between carefully chosen words, not just the words themselves.

China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other. China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.

The Chinese objective is to win, to dominate, using economic power.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

Therefore, when you see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition within Beijing beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase.

♦U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. economic team fully understand this dynamic and fully understand the inherent needs of China. When you are economically dependent, the ‘bully plan’ only works until you encounter a ‘stronger opponent’. A stronger opponent is an economic opponent with a more broad-based stable economy, that’s US.

President Trump, Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, represent the first broad-based national team of economic negotiators who know how to leverage the inherent Chinese economic vulnerability.

Every American associated with investment, economics and China would be well advised to put their interconnected business affairs in order according to their exposure.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the geopolitical economics must be addressed. President Donald Trump and his team are entirely prepared for this.

Donald Trump has been discussing this for more than two decades. We are going into economic combat with China!

China’s objective is conquest. China’s tool for conquest is economics. President Trump’s entire geopolitical strategy, using economics in a similar way, is an existential threat to China’s endeavor. Communist Beijing calls the proverbial DPRK shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue. Venezuela now needs more money. China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding. Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2. China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal. Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria. Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.

♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. If U.S. pulls or reduces financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India. President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals. The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India. That’s a big play.

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property. This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

♦Squeeze #6. President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA. One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #7. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.

♦Squeeze #8. President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #9. President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan. It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his missile over the Northern part of Japan. Quite simply, Beijing told him to.

Add all of this up and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy toward China. The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of “all of it”, coming.

The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Unfortunately, I’m one of the ones who don’t. I’m not denying it once was – but it’s not anymore. I have never wished to go to college, yet every job application asks about it – and if you haven’t, your chances for being hired are lower, no matter your intelligence level or degree. When I was younger and everyone asked me where I was going to college – left, right, Repub, Dem, conservative, liberal, old, young, male, female – and I said I wasn’t, they were universally shocked. When I would point out the utter idiocy of colleges these days, they’d insist that “not all colleges are like that.” There were very few suggestions of those that weren’t, however.

The expectation for one to go to college is not the only one, though. A girl who plans to be a stay-at-home-mom and/or homemaker and/or homeschool her children, is thought to be radical. When was the last time you challenged a security guard at your local public buildings with breaking the law by infringing on your 2nd Amendment rights? Stereotypes are applied by everyone, to certain groups, no matter what. The most liberal-minded (in the original sense) that you can ever get is that not all of the group fit the stereotype.

I’m not sure when exactly it happened – well before I was born – but Americans have been taught, and to some degree even bred, to think inside the “box” as well. The Treehouse and the Treepers are the exception to, not the rule of, independent thought – or the lack thereof.

I noticed a long time ago that most school teachers thought everyone should be a teacher. Nothing wrong with teachers or any other profession but please take the blinders off and get off the hamster wheel.

I guess it depends on ones vocation in life. Both of my sons have followed me in a “sales” capacity and neither went to college. Both are competent, successful, and nothing taught in college surpasses “real world” interactions with your fellow citizens. On top of that, neither were saddled with massive DEBT and are 4 to 5 years ahead of their competition in the job market. It is simply a different view, I share it with you and support your thoughts…..

If you look at the various ethnic groups, their success in life is directly attributable to the value they place on achieving an education.

For instance, I hear the Stormtrooper crowd lament the fact that the Jewish people own the airwaves. Did you know that their argument is no different from the “white privilege” argument? It’s the same exact thing. In each instance, all their problems would be solved if they just placed a higher premium on education.

Great comments, Climber!!! Americans do have a problem, albeit to a lesser degree, with the “compliance mindset”. I have felt for many years that American college education can actually handicap young minds by stifling creative thought. That dampening of creative energy works hand in glove with the compliance mindset which is created by multiple layers of oppressive government. It’s time to start shunning both big government AND big education (Big Ed?).

I’m a start studded flag waving white veteran, and love this Country, but if there is anyone out there that under estimates the Chinese…please rethink your position. Let’s think of the actual population…as in billions. Yes, they will steal your teeth. They will close ranks on us at a blink of an eye, not to mention that USA big biz has allow them, though joint ventures and other legal thievery have given so much of our technology, then stolen the rest….think Slick Willy and all the cash and prizes he gave to and received from China.

It would seem that you missed the bigger picture, Bob. No one here underestimates China. Quite the contrary. Eyes wide open re: China.

The point is, China has underestimated the will and stratergery of Pres Trump. China, as well as Russia, truly believed that our Very Fake News and political parties would break the will of our Pres Trump. Enjoy the ride.

If Sundance’s scenario is correct, and it may well be – what do you think the Chinese will do in reaction to these measures? At one extreme, they go to actual war against us to protect their economic setup. This is clearly a losing game for them both quickly and/or slowly. We vastly overmatch their firepower, and we can easily outlast their supply lines.

On the other extreme, they can capitulate quickly. This means their factories keep (mostly) running, their raw materials and food keep arriving and their bank accounts go way down while ours go up. Our economy booms, while theirs shrinks. We rebuild our manufacturing base gradually at the same time.

Anything less than quick surrender on their part means that their economy collapses as we place orders all over the world and our manufacturing base starts rebuilding on an emergency basis. Many American entrepreneurs will jump at the profit potentials.

Yes, some prices would certainly rise here. But millions more people would have jobs and more money to spend. And national security steadily improves as does the balance of trade.

Very much a huge operation – but also very very likely to succeed. No wonder Mnuchin pooh-poohed the recent criticism from his lib pals. If I was him, I wouldn’t give up my front-row seat at these historic financial fireworks for anything in the world!

Not so sure about the part where, “the modern era Chinese are not able to think outside the box per se”, what with Sun Tzu and all. Somebody in China has probably read it recently, after all there are about a billion Chinese. There is the caveat of “modern era”.

Hope this is the right analysis overall, and am thinking yes it is, but even a little variance gets ugly in the Koreas/Japan.

Alternatives? Yeah, there are plenty (Assassinate Fat Boy, Tactical Nuke First Strike on all NK border artillery, Shut the lights off in North Korea by hitting all generating and transmission hubs, Starve them all to Death by cutting off foreign aid, Shut all Ports and Sea Transport, stop trade with China, give the South Koreans Nukes, give the Japanese Nukes, get the Hell out of there, send in 100,000 heavy armor international troops and tanks, promote the NK car building industry, wait 8 years and hope it is someone else’s problem). Too name a few.

Outstanding and very clear article! I would only add that among other aspects of China dependency is also how much importing of food they do to feed the population. That was amazing to me when I learned about it in China and could also be one reason for strict population control.

Another reason for strict population control might be that very young populations tend to be restive and revolutionary and radical (“Red Guards”). A more balanced population is more conservative and stable (unless you can convince me otherwise).

When I look for the book, I get a whole series of different ones with the same title. Do you mean the book written by Suzanne Arms? — my own perception based on what happened from the 1960s to 1970s is that when the birthrate dropped, women began to work outside the home, and there was more disposable income (which was promptly snatched up by education becoming horribly expensive, and parents being guilted to buy too many things for our kids in place of time and a decent dinner — but that’s another discussion)

And now, Tegan, they are paying the consequences for population control as a large swath of its citizens are becoming elderly. Their “one child” edict resulted in a high abortion rate of female fetuses (who would have been the caretaker of their elderly parents) in favor of male babies (to carry on the family name). They’ve recently enacted a two child policy but I say it’s too little, too late. I’m loathe to do this but here is an interesting 2014, article from the NYSlime regarding this subject.

Excellent ammunition. Worked in a store staffed entirely by girls/women who were always talking about birth control and… well, what it’s used for. Gotten into many arguments, with family, in-laws, and complete strangers, regarding birth control (I am not, personally, a fan of it, for multiple reasons.) Think next time I hear a woman demanding her employer provide her birth control because “it’s her body, and her choice, and she wants to have fun!”, I’ll suggest she move to China… mandatory birth control and lots of eligible bachelors.

I knew China was dependent on exporting goods, but had no idea they did not have the base for raw goods. Very interesting. I also wonder about all the money they have supposedly loaned us. And the large amount of property they have purchased here.

Trump, the developer, knows that if you owe a bank $10,000 that you can’t afford to pay back, then you are screwed. But if you owe the bank $10,000,000,000 and can’t afford to pay it back, then bank is screwed.

I watched this video a month ago and it completely blew me away! The Chinese economy is a paper tiger. SD is absolutely right! There are so many ghost cities in China. They build them and yet no one lives in them. They have to give their people jobs which allows them to build these cities and roads ensuring that their GDP remains high. Their economy is all make believe.

China has a number of would-be metropolises in the country. These grand cities have sprawling roadways, towering apartments and glimmering government buildings. These same places also lack inhabitants.

The spectacle of China’s “ghost cities” emits an eerie vibe. Eight-line streets with no cars, stadiums with no teams and parks with no people. A recent article in Wired explained the phenomenon, noting the Asian giant has built hundreds of new cities in the past three decades in an effort to urbanize the enormous country.

The hope is that urbanization can fuel economic growth. And its China’s prosperous growth that fueled the big empty cities in the first place. The BBC wrote in 2012 about how many of these places rose from “investment for investment’s sake.” Here’s how they described what happened:

Investment in infrastructure accounts for much of China’s GDP – the country is said to have built the equivalent of Rome every two months in the past decade. And with such a large pool of labour, it is harder to put the brakes on when growth slows and supply outstrips demand.

For a number of years I worked for a West Coast architectural firm that designed many major “cities” in China. At the beginning, it was a wonder to us why they had to source externally for architects and planners. Sundance’s explanation about the lack of creativity holds true from my own personal experience.

My son attends an engineering college that has a lot of students from China. These students don’t do well because they work hard and learn. They do well becaus they cheat. Disturbing as that is, it’s what I hear from his friends who attend other engineering schools. They have nothing to bring back to China after their time here except knowing how to steal other people’s work.

Mary, read in a few article a while back about Chinese students entering our elite universities and it was alleged their test scores and academic records are fabrications. But they pay HEFTY tuitions, so the uni. admins. look the other way.

grandma, that is why you will see a number of articles discussing China mining in foreign countries, such as Afghanistan and Africa…. because they are mining for precious minerals, etc. – a number of which are used in electronic components. They are like a huge octopus with very long tentacles – they want to be the SOLE provider of very precious commodities.

“Because of the oppressive nature of the Chinese compliant culture, the citizens within China do not innovate or create. The “Compliance Mindset” is part of the intellectual DNA strain of a Chinese citizen.”

Boy, in my experience in dealing with the Chinese truer words have never been spoken. I’m an engineer and though Alibaba I hooked up with a Chinese manufacturer to build some parts for my prototypes I invented. It was a difficult process. First I would draw up the plans and specifications while being blind to the manufacturer’s capabilities which they would not divulge. Usually the first response was, “we can’t make that” and no creative suggestions were offered even after asking for them. Then I would redesign around what thought the manufacturing capabilities were. After four iterations I finally came up with a design within their manufacturing capabilities.

In my experience the Chinese do well when being told exactly what to do. They take orders well. For example, don’t simply tell them you want “G” and assume they will start with “A”. You need to tell them to start with “A” then B, C, D, E, F and finally G. And not only do they need all steps they need the quantity and quality of each step. For example, if you specify 304 stainless steel and just because it’s being welded don’t assume that they will choose the most weldable 304 stainless which is 304L.

this is why i laugh when i read articles about china building so many of the worlds fastest computers.. fast computers are irrelevant if you dont have a clue what to do with them. Same thing with Chinas space program. they are really good at stealing stuff and then reproducing it but they are awful at creating anything. they send thei kids to us schools but as many of you know our colleges are failing to teach the new generation how to teach outside the box. So the chinese are learning from our schools the same horrible things they are teaching our kids. long term i dont see anything good for them, unlike India which as a culture is much more in line with the US. they have a huge population and their work ethic is much more individualistic. India doesnt have as many natural resources as china but it has a young population that can do things. not to mention they will have the worlds largest population as soon as 2020

China’s need for stolen tech was part of why Obama “mistakenly” released as much technology as possible to China “by all means necessary”, meaning dubious military use for scavenging. Just what I KNOW about from open media speculation is scary. I will bet the tales of classified lost technology are STAGGERING.

My bet is on that our Patent Office was compromised by our own people. But again, this is only my opinion and this from skimming complaints from those who would present their package only to be delayed and delayed until they found out their innovation was then miraculously patented elsewhere just in the nick of time before them. Coincidences are rare, but these seemed pretty likely especially in the military and tech fields. To be fair though, it could have been transmission grabs in our ever present spyware reality.

This is a very compelling scenario. It explains a lot, AND USPTO is an obvious target for the ChiComs.

Add in globalists who might allow it to happen for both political and corruption reasons (globalist dupes, plus corruptoids banking personal stock bets on China) and you have the makings of some trouble.

The latter would be in terms of neglecting, allowing, or facilitating ChiCom takeover of IT systems, allowing a compromised system to endure, or bringing in compromised/compromisable software or systems.

Initial breach would presumably be by the usual methods – phishing, ringers using “whoops” techniques, off-site access takeover, etc. I imagine they have all the problems everybody else does.

The way to find if it happened is to take an array of such complaints and use them like radar back against the internals of the USPTO process. Work backwards to the examination process, and what software was used – probably in the earliest stages, where payoff for China is highest. Which examiners, systems, software, dates. I am betting that a forensic story will unfold. Assume China was watching through some method, and see if it makes sense.

The TIMING can also be triangulated for each case by assuming WHEN China would have needed the information to get the advantage. If there is overlap on the window of the USPTO having access to the information, especially in all cases, then that shows it was while it was at USPTO.

If NOT, then that means the access was elsewhere, during the R&D, pre-patent-submission phase. In that case, look for common denominators.

I agree. Remember that missile that we had sitting on the bottom of the ocean and China snapped it up ? President Trump just won the election and was still at Trump Tower when it happened, our government said it was just gathering innocuous stuff on ocean tides or something dumb like that, President Trump told them to keep it he didn’t want it back. There is a whole lot more to that story for sure. This is why I think Clinton had the private server so she could start sharing intel because we were not going to need it we would be gone as in dead..

Finally some push back against the ridiculously over positive stereotyping of the Chinese. They are not inherently smarter, or more industrious, or more exotic, just a lot more devious, and they will stop at nothing to get what they want. I have to laugh at some of the Western billionaires who divorced their American wives to marry a much younger CHinese trophy wife (looking at you Rupert Murdoch)–it was the ultimate trophy to have a younger Chinese wife….yeah see how well that works out. All they want is access to the credit cards, stupid fools.

China really isn’t unique as a “compliant” culture…the old Soviet Union, some countries in Latin America, Japan and other SE Asian nations….all have fairly compliant cultures. The government tells them how much electricity they are allowed to use, how much garbage they are allowed to put out each week, what types of schools they are allowed to attend after elementary school years, etc. Today’s university students, the restless, demanding protestors, etc. have NO concept whatsoever of how they would be treated in most of the world outside the US.

There is a company here in the United States that will help you…They even provide the software to engineer the item(s). Here is the URL: http://www.emachineshop.com. You can even telephone, email or use their design software and they will help with the rest…Good Luck..

I work for one of those (Aerospace) companies that have been getting” buddy-buddy” with China. Plants built there, pictures of smiling workers, etc.
Trouble is, behind the smiles are folks more than willing to “appropriate” the technology That has made us successful.

Let me warn you – they are only in it to steal your jobs. My diagnosis is that they begin by OWNING (by whatever means needed) top management. Seen it too often. As their grip tightens, management acts more and more China-like. Everything turns top-down. I could go on, but you get the picture.

The Chinese steal everything! They steal secrets, they steal others ideas, they steal intellectual property rights, they even steal our culture, our music, our songs, our movies, and the broadcast formats they present is even stolen. So what is left for the Chinese to call their own if they are stealing everybody else ideas? What innovative idea have the Chinese come up with in the 21st century that has contributed to humanity? Answer: Crickets!

“One Belt, One Road” includes a number of hugely ambitious projects, including a train line stretching from eastern China to London.

Why is it so unclear?
While it might have originally had a comprehensible thesis behind it, OBOR has become such a popular buzzword that it’s next to impossible to lock down criteria for how any given project would or could fit into the overall initiative. Chinese officials tend to mention it regardless of what they’re trying to promote, like a US lawmaker talking about “freedom.”

Chenggang Xu, a professor of economics at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, said it helps to think of OBOR as a “philosophy” or “party line,” rather than anything concrete.

As an example of what an all-encompassing buzzword its become, state media has claimed OBOR will benefit: the Middle East peace process, start-ups in Dubai, currency trading, global poverty reduction, Xinjiang’s medical industry, Australian hotels, nuclear power, Polish orchards, and, finally, the entire world.

Jörg Wuttke of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, warned this week the initiative has increasingly “been hijacked by Chinese companies, which have used it as an excuse to evade capital controls, smuggling money out of the country by disguising it as international investments and partnerships.”

What are the economic benefits?….”China is looking to use OBOR as a way to ship its own domestic overproduction offshore,” said Nick Marro, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)…(China is) leveraging their own capital to get involved in helping (other) countries to get wealthier so they can become customers of Chinese products,” he said.”

What are the economic risks?…Many key countries targeted by OBOR — in central Asia, Africa and southeast Asia — are prone to economic and political instability and corruption.

What are the political benefits? Most analysts agree that, for all its rhetoric about trade and development, OBOR is primarily a political project. It has been compared to the Marshall Plan.

What are the political risks? If successful, OBOR could see China supplant the US as the main superpower in much of the world — but Xu warned the project could also backfire considerably because of its size….”The most notorious allegations have been levied against Chinese investment in Africa, which often sees large, state-owned companies set up shop, bring in workers from China — as opposed to hiring locally — and then re-export mined raw materials back home,” he said.

Given the vast size of the OBOR initiative, if things go wrong, it could be a major blight on China’s reputation in much of the world.”

They steal spots at Universities that Americans should have. And they cheat to get the grades . My kiddo had a few Chinese students in their med school class that totally monopolized the instructor at lab, and during any Q & A. sessions. And not long after, they all got busted for cheating.

My wife graduated from University of Akron 2 years ago. At her ceremony were the graduates with an MS in polymer studies. There were maybe 40-50 diplomats. Every single one had an obviously Chinese name. Every. Single. One. How does this happen?

btw look for china to ratchet up their propaganda in regards to clean energy and the globalist/ hollywood crowd to run with it as a way to attack trump. They want to be perceived as the benevolent ones and will use their pretend commitments to ” clean energy” as a way to hurt trump all the while having no intention of following through with any of it

Hollywood + China gives you Leonardo di Caprio:https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2016/12/21/with-dicaprio-aboard-byd-sets-sights-on-americas-car-market/#25657f953d7b
I’m actually in favor of clean energy, and try to be mindful.
In my personal experience, the virtuous people who holler loudest about this are often very wasteful in their personal habits — not the sort to dry their clothes in a line in the sunshine or in the attic instead of using a clothes dryer; not likely to turn the lights off, or the air conditioning, when leaving the house etc. I like frugality — not just because of my conservative tendencies. Not being wasteful is healthy in principle

“Clean energy” has nothing to do with being wasteful, frugal, mindful, or healthy. It is about the hypothesis that Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is harmful, and that more of it being produced by industry, use of “fossil fuels”, coal, gas, petrol, oil, etc is bad.

Your Profound dissertations on World Affairs, gives me Great Confidence in P45 and his Teams Intellectual Fire Power.
Our Domestic Enemies(Deep State/Uniparty), are Required to be left Defeated and Nekid, before they will help MAGA.
America First will Never be in their vocabulary.
Get ‘Em OUT!

All the “experts” are afraid to push China because of China’s huge disposable population…disposable meaning numbers of young men they can send to kill or be killed. No other country has such a disposable population. Steve Bannon said it best — paraphrased — America destroyed its working class in order to build China a working class. They had to do SOMETHING with their huge population and “the world” was afraid they’d send them into war. The ME is running into the same situation. Lots and lots of young men who have nothing to live for and nothing to do but die. I read an interesting book years ago — something about the role of disease in history. Every time a population would get too large to sustain itself, along would come a plague (Black, Smallpox, etc) and wipe out the non-productive, usually the children and elderly. I suspect wars serve the same purpose. I also suspect the “elite 1%” and the pundits who play court to them are making a heckuva lot of money in Chinese investments and they don’t want DJT monkeying with their riches just so some blue collar worker can earn a living. The “let them eat cake” mentality. This explains the Republicans in Congress. They represent their own self interest first, their donors’ self interest second and the voters that send them to DC are there only to deliver them into the promised land. It’s unfortunate for them that DJT’s entering the primary outed them all. We know them now for who they are.

they say that but exactly what would china do without these young men? their population is already aging quickly… do you think china would exacerbate that further by killing many young men? the truth is a lot of the extra men are older anyways.. the one child policy has been around a while

Agreed, Doug, which is why China cannot play its trump card (no pun intended). But it takes miles of ocean to turn a tanker and the pundits, 1%, Republicans in thrall to them don’t want to change course. POTUS is changing course and they don’t like it. They’ll be better off in the long run but they just can’t see that. It’s no accident that the richest Americans are the most opposed to DJT. The dependent Americans just want to be assured they’ll have food, housing and medical care because for 50 years the Democrats have promised them that and they don’t know how to get those things now for themselves.

Their problem is not really a surplus of young men, it is a lack of young women. And many of those young women are not prioritizing getting married and having babies… You cannot reverse this demographic trend any time in the near future. They will be old before they are rich. And that’s only one of their problems.

i read a book about nonlinear systems by Gleick, who mentioned population as a nonlinear function, with the special property that if you minimize the bounce, the same mathematics go to extinction fast.I am not a mathematician so i have no idea if that is true.

Part of me wonders if the US administration’s strategy is generally to squeeze Chinese investments, thereby requiring them to continue to leverage themselves (via centrally-issued debt) to bring those investments into fruition. That is, simply forcing China to pay for their One Road/Belt strategy via leveraged debt instead of actual and realized economic expansion may collapse their very delicately constructed (and centrally planned) economic house of cards forthwith.

I don’t really think the Middle Class will ever be fully aware of how great a friend they have in the White House; nor will they ever have the capability or capacity to properly thank him for his efforts on their behalf.

What do you think PDJT is doing? China has ALWAYS been a step child for investments. I just visited Canada and you would not believe the amount of Chinese, Indian and Muzzies there that have a great deal of disposable income before the China Gov. says…no move exit visas!!!

“China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. ”

I haven’t read the rest. I had to stop there.

OH THANK THE LORD. The key word is NATURAL. I haven’t heard it mentioned for years. This is essential. I get so annoyed when people talk about capitalism vs communism that the media talk about. The whole argument is misconstrued. And before you know it, people have the word SYSTEM attached at the end. The “capitalist system” this, the “capitalist system” that. It is all baloney. Capitalism is NOT a system. Nature is NOT a system. Capitalism is what happens when there are no systems. Now of course, no organized society has ever lived in a pure capitalist system, as that would be anarchy and chaos, and I don’t want to get into the weeds of that. But the point is this. Capitalism is what happens when people are allowed to get on with their lives, and the lawyers and politicians and paper pushers get out of the way. It is not a system, it is just the natural course of things.

Thank you Sundance. We need to talk more of this in discussions. Capitalism is just nature – human nature. It is not a system at all. And just like nature, you can’t stop it.

I think of communism as weed killer. You can spray weed killer on as much as you like, but sooner or later, without any human intervention, those weeds start to reappear again, and they do their own thing.

Okay. Back to the article. I just got very excited about that one sentence. I do apologize.

This is NOT CHAOS like ANTIFA wants but a different method of organizing society.

This most remarkable historical example of a society of libertarian law and courts first came to my attention while reading Murray Rothbard’s For a New Liberty. This was a society where not only the courts and the law were largely libertarian, but they were basically anarcho-capitalist in the modern sense of the phrase. This Celtic society was not some primitive society or tribe but rather it was a highly complex society. Ireland for centuries was the most advanced, most scholarly, and most civilized society in all of Western Europe. And all without a government!

Murray Rothbard documented the Irish Anarchy in his book “For a New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto“ […]

I do not think it will work in modern times when the Thugs on Horseback now have MOAB Bombs, but it does make fascinating reading.

Fact. Even the Russians don’t trust China. They have a phrase, that says that they rob you, while smiling at you, shaking your hand. I think it is true.

There are much better, less hostile economic partners in the world. I honestly believe that the rise of China has happened because the global elite made it happen. They prefer China’s compliant population. They prefer communism.

As my grandfather always used to tell me (true story). He’d say “always remember, capitalism is for the poor, and socialism is for the rich”. When I was a child it always seemed like an odd thing to say. But he said it a lot. There were always politicians on TV talking about the working class (I was bought up in the UK), and how socialist policies could help them. My grandfather was a coal miner in Wales. He was a sharp man.

Stunning before and after photos. I first went to China in 1991 selling telecom network systems to ChinaSat. In Beijing, everyone was still in blue PJ’s riding bikes. The Beijing Friendship Store had some speciality goods but not much inventory. Two years later I was in Shanghi before the big building boom and visited the Shanghi Stock Exchange that was operating from the ball room in the old Lord Astor hotel. The transition to a market economy and Chinese capitalism was well underway. Two years later (1995) Shanghi and Pudong was booming with massive new construction.The blue PJs were gone and the streets full of cars. China has been in a boom economy for fifteen years and is due for the boom to turn to bust. What goes up must come down.

I have looked and look and looked at those two photos and I just don’t see how it is possible for those to be of the same location and from the same angle. The Chinese would have had to have completely leveled those hills, and turned a canal into a river.

This was an outstanding read. Sundance does such a great job of putting the thought processes of President Trump’s economic plan/strategy into comprehensible language for numbskulls like myself to understand.

“Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.”

This description of China’s economic model is eerily similar to that of Japan in the 1930s. The U.S. sanction against Japan (due to its occupation of China) at the time triggered the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

” Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria.”. I doubt it. The bang for the ruble they get is amazing. The neocon project of using the Ukraine to surround Russia seems to have failed, but impoverishing all those ethnic Russians in the Ukraine might be a way of bleeding Russia.

All of this would not have been possible without the unleashing of our Energy Superpower. From Coal to LNG and every other source in between, corporations are realizing it is more cost effective to build in America versus the rest of the world.

This Energy explosion has also allowed us to take the upper hand with Russia 🇷🇺 and for different reasons eventually with China 🇨🇳. Our President has been traveling to different countries or meeting with them in the US and is consistently selling American Coal and LNG. In doing so, it is feeding our economy but also buying us MASSIVE LEVERAGE with the two world powers that we need to resolve our two biggest issues; North Korea 🇰🇵 NOW and eventually Iran 🇮🇷.

South Korea 🇰🇷 has decided it is in their best interest to pay for our protection by signing an agreement for $15 Billion in LNG. Ukraine 🇺🇦 got screwed with HRC losing and has to pay for their bet on her by purchasing Coal to be able to use throughout the year. Poland 🇵🇱 and the Three Sea Nations (11 total) decided that to distance their dependency on Russia 🇷🇺, it would be smart to sign contracts with our companies to supply LNG. They are also building up their infrastructure as we speak to be able to pipe the LNG through each of the different countries. Ireland 🇮🇪 and Lithuania 🇱🇹 just recently signed a contract for our LNG. UK 🇬🇧, France 🇫🇷 and Germany 🇩🇪 are purchasing massive amounts of our Coal.

All of the things I just described is killing the Russians and their stronghold on these countries and their economy back in Russia 🇷🇺. Eventually China 🇨🇳 will agree to massive amounts of LNG and Coal to lower the import/export advantage they currently have with us. We will continue to take their trinkets but in return they will buy hundreds of billions of dollars in LNG and Coal. The need is there for them with 1.7 billion plus Chinese living in China 🇨🇳.

Folks our President is beyond brilliant! Energy has served and will continue to serve two major purposes. It will be used to “Fuel” our Economic Train 🚂 and it will continue to “Fuel” our leverage with Russia 🇷🇺 and China 🇨🇳!

Prudence dictates that you must arrange to have a backup for vital resources. However West Virginia coal will always cost more in Kiev than Donbass coal. American LNG will always cost more in Estonia than Russia gas. As for any geopolitical impact, it is in the future. See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potentiality_and_actuality

Perfect example: Houston. America can rebuild Houston using American materials, American labor and American suppliers exclusively. The reality is that we give up market share because there is “Global Trade” which is generally financial in nature. One Belt One Road is chiefly a form of financial leverage: China loans Yuan (Chinese currency) for fixed rates of return (foreign currency). The Chinese are desperate to diversify their currency as one bubble will burst their entire portfolio.

According to Joseph Needham in the Introduction to his multi-volume series, The Science and Civilization of China, the Chinese experienced the longest Bronze Age in history, which ended circa 1650; even though carbonized steel production was known and utilized as early as the 1300’s. This leaves an almost 200 year gap in Chinese technologic development until circa 1850 when Bessemer steel production was invented, allowing mass production of steel. Everything since then has been catch up, leading to the present situation in China and accounts for their amoral pursuit of intellectual theft. So this is not new and has been going on for at least 150 years.

Marxism and central planning is a Western ideology imported to China. The philosophy of Yin/Yang is a philosophy of harmony and does not remotely mirror the intentions of a central planning commission.

In the middle to late 12th century, Marco Polo established the Silk Road trading route to Venice. The Chinese government is attempting to reestablish the Silk Road which in the 12th century was guarded and gate kept by Coptic Christians. One guess who eventually destroyed it (hint: think Middle East.) And just as in the 12th century, guess which port of call will be used by the Chinese belt. Yes, Venice. The Chinese economic model is base on a 700 year old economic model.

This may be the best explanation of the Globalists and uniparty Actions Against America. Consider shutting down US production and out sourcing it to places like China. From the Global Warming policies to the myriad of US agencies policies that push production out of the US, they make us globally dependent.
If this continues and the Globalists successfully undermine Trump we will seal our fate. Sundance’s post may be more relevant to explain the “why” for America’s Globalists actions than the weaknesses of China.

I always viewed globalism as a palatable brand of communism that sells in the West. However, the dirty secret, as we found out, is that it starts off a lot like multi-national capitalism, but ends up a lot more like international socialism.

You know “socialism” may be a bad word for it. I suppose that in the pure sense, socialism makes everyone equal; however, in reality it formally establishes the elites or proletariat that is more equal than the rest. So in the case of globalism we’ll have those elites running the world. How sick!
To the commentators on capitalism and Sundance’s point, individual liberty and the freedom that generates innovation is at stake. America gets it and the fight with the elites and MSM is on. MAGA.

The ChiComs are feeling the pressure in all sides. They are trying to negotiate with India on the Doklam border issue, willing to negotiate with US and will back off in NOKO as Sundance has been mentioning it for a while. ChiCom’s weakness is abundantly clear in the past couple days as they agreed to back off on the border dispute with India mainly because, Mr. Modi of India who is shrewd business man(he is from Gugarat one of the business friendly states; folks from that State are business people & control more than 70 to 80% of India’s wealth) is not giving up on border and he is also against the ChiCom’s one road policy. India’s maritime Defense is one of the best in that region and Modi already laid out his other strategies.As some of the Treepers clearly indicated here, ChiCom is good at copying and not inventing whereas Indians are good both inventing and copying as well. Net net, Chicoms have to and will realize that they are NOT dealing with dummies anymore. MAGA

What was the strategy of making Elaine Chao Trans Sec? I mean her family is involved in some mega-shady shipping stuff. And my guess is she leans liberal (Mt. Holyoke and Columbia for goodness sake) . I always wondered about the motive behind that?

Elaine Cho is married to Sen Mitch McConnell. Elaine Cho inherited a whole bunch of money from her late father; Elaine Cho is the one with the money in that family. Mitch McConnell is the main protagonist against our Pres Trump. One does what one must needs do…

“China’s objective is conquest. China’s tool for conquest is economics.”

Correct. The fast railway being constructed from China through Laos to Thailand is an interesting example of ‘trouble at mill’.
The SE Asian elites are easily controlled by direct payments or construction contracts. The people are not. China is hated by Laotians and Vietnamese, the Chinese towns over the border inside rural Laos were set up with Lao govt approval, these Chinese dare not drive outside these areas.
Chinese population will follow railways into other countries and China hopes infrastructure projects like the Mekong hydro dams will give them that entree and allow large Chinese migrations in time.

We are aware of the possibility of US MIAs when travelling in remote Laos

In addition to the Belt that you describe, the ChiComs have extensive involvement in Africa for infrastructure projects to ingratiate themselves to the locals. Involving schools to learn Chinese. This adds a bond to China much like speaking English from colonial days would provide a bond to England and the US. They ChiComs are also in Panama (and Venezuela, Ecuador, etc) but the Panamanian connection through Hutchinson-Wampoa provides a belt extending from Africa and the Mediterranean through the Panama canal to the Pacific back to China, encircling the globe.

The Chinese are all over Africa and Latin America selling anything and everything and buying property up especially if they can get loans. Whether we like it or not the cat is out of the bag and China will be challenging the US for world economic supremacy. Trump being the master at funding and borrowing to finance his big projects, knows about the danger of becoming over extended…which most often leads to bankruptcy. We have a savvy business man in the Whitehouse who can read a balance sheet. He’s read China’s and knows that they are over extended. It’s just a matter of time before Beijing hits the wall.

ha! really good. sundance articles are getting more and more interesting. we’re going deeper and deeper into the mystery of trump’s strategies. it’s gratifying to know that our white house team are brilliant masters. No one in media can explain these vast intricacies so clearly and articulately as sundance. they are all so dumb (main street media!). CTH is the most refreshing news site on the planet.

About the origins of Communism in China…. went looking for the name of an early Chinese communist who had attended a Christian Tennessee college as a young man… couldn’t find it right now, but I am pretty certain that the history exists.

Meanwhile, here’s a bit about Sun Yat-Sen from Wikipedia that’s interesting:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen“On the mainland, Sun is seen as a Chinese nationalist and proto-socialist, and is highly regarded as the Forerunner of the Revolution (革命先行者). He is even mentioned by name in the preamble to the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China. In recent years, the leadership of the Communist Party of China has increasingly invoked Sun, partly as a way of bolstering Chinese nationalism in light of Chinese economic reform and partly to increase connections with supporters of the Kuomintang on Taiwan which the PRC sees as allies against Taiwan independence. Sun’s tomb was one of the first stops made by the leaders of both the Kuomintang and the People First Party on their pan-blue visit to mainland China in 2005. A massive portrait of Sun continues to appear in Tiananmen Square for May Day and National Day.”

In his book, The Stone Monkey, Bruce Holbrook says that at every village gate stood a statue to honor the mothers of China. The communists did a sly borrowing and used the honoring of mothers as a tool of association to their cause during the Long March. As an instance, if I say ‘rainbow’ do you instantly think of the Bible story Noah’s Ark, or a contemporary association that has to do with who uses what bathroom? By the same token, this latest sly borrowing linking Sun Yat-sen with communist doctrine is the same type of associative tool. By extension, using the Confucian work ethic of ‘filial piety’ (respect for parents and family), the marxist did a sly borrowing which essentially has replaced the family with the state (the main reason for the one child rule- erase extended family).

I must say that the assertion that the Chines are not able to innovate may have been true twenty years ago, but it is no more true. They are doing some very advanced research and development. If we do not regain our competitive advantage in the next five years, we are screwed.

The Chinese economy is like fantasy sports – all about measuring statistics, not the actual score. In the near term building empty apartments and excessive infrastructure pads the stats, but these misallocations of resources will be very problematic in the long run. Many years of one child policy doesn’t help either, but that’s a whole other discussion.

“Chinese investors poured a record $16.4 billion into California last year, more than any other state and nearly double the amount invested over the previous 10 years, according to the Rhodium Group, which tracks Chinese foreign investment. The state also serves as the gateway for goods passing between the U.S. and Asia, including $143.6 billion in imports from China in 2015, the last year for which census data are available.”

Your comments highlighting their lack of intellectual ingenuity reminds me of conversations I had with my Bernie loving daughter during the campaign. My attempts to make her understand that socialism is a failed ideology kept falling on deaf ears.

Finally I asked, “do you honestly believe that socialism creates an environment that produces people like with Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates…..or gasp someone like Donald Trump?”

I understand what you are saying and add this, cheap labor hinders innovation too.
Illegals that are cheap labor push off innovation. Think back to the cotton gin. I have no doubt that through robotics, machines could do more of the back breaking labor that illegals do. Investment may be initially high but cheaper in the long run. But why invest, when you have under payed slave labor that doesn’t complain because they are here illegally?

I think Sundance’s summary of conditions is excellent. However, there is one thing that can stop a country economically. I am referring to natural disasters. The big one that could knock the US down significantly is a huge earthquake along the San Andreas fault, which would not only hurt a lot of people, but would destroy an enormous amount of infrastructure, including airports and vital dams irrigating the farm lands. Yes China has earthquakes too, but it’s population and economy is not so dependent on infrastructure.

Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said on Wednesday that Mexico will leave the negotiating table if U.S. President Donald Trump goes ahead with a threat to start the process of withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).”

I always knew China’s economy was top down, communist controlled, so I never trusted investing in it. Sundance has done a well thought out understanding of this. So let’s go to our country and let me throw in a twist for the political aspect. Yes, companies buy the politicians, so they can run the populace and maximize profits for the lucky. Sundance mentions that Americans think independently and therefore our economy can take care of itself. The goal is to stop that with global companies but, besides the politicians being bought, all of them are in it for power, the very characteristic our Founders tried to prevent. Attached is a link to an eleven year old treatise I read that shows why our politicians want enormous amounts of people from the south of us in this country. American voters will change the pols that don’t serve them. The pols can’t do anything about that so their strategy is to change the electorate. Even more than the cheap labor the CoC wants, the pols want people that accept government overlords so they can stay in power. The Deep State rejects Trump for their survival. The pols reject Trump because he returns power to WTP, even above their economic interests. This was written by an adviser to Vincente Fox, the then president of Mexico. Cut and Paste this – Fredo Arias-King Immigration and Usurpation

The Belt & Road initiative is China’s attempt to spend all it’s FRN’s ( federal reserve notes ) in one fell swoop to create a land bridge ( road and rail ) to assure raw materials come in to China and value added goods go out to other markets .

EXCELLENT piece SUNDANCE as always !!

The 800 lb Gorilla accompanying the 800 lb BIG PANDA in the room is that China has polluted it’s GROUND WATER !! YES !! with 1.3 BILLION DEHYDRATING Chinese . The secret is no longer secret that China is buying up GOLF COURSES in South Carolina .

Not for development or continuing the golf courses for anything other than a cover . You see South Carolina sits on massive FRESH WATER AQUIFERS . Aquifers that the Chinese can tap in to and SEND WATER HOME to China in their tankers with Walmart goods that go home empty now !!

China’s centrally planned economy , as the history of all communist ruling class economy planning goes …millions of Chinese people are EXPENDABLE as long as the ruling class in China has THEIR WATER !!

The reason why the US “lost” the North Korean War is because our generals, still high off their successes from WWII and viewing the world through that lens, abandoned the simple principles of Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

We had the military might to win the war, but we failed to protect our home turf. We didn’t have the will to win.

” There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.” Sun Tzu

The Chinese/NK exploited that weakness by employing massive amounts of propaganda, which, in turn, spurred on the Hippy Power/Make Love, Not War movement, and we’ve been saddled with addled-brain moonbats from Berzerkley ever since.

While there is no doubt in my mind that POTUS understands clearly “The Art of War,” still, the Chinese are very clever.

I like what I’m seeing here in these negotiations, but I’m sill waiting for the other shoe to drop too.

^^ Squeezes……..this is how top real estate sharks do deals. They don’t simply ask the seller how much and negotiate price………..they dig deep into all aspects of the deal and find weakness in every nook and cranny; then they re-double their efforts and find the dirt, illegalities, errors, omissions, and missteps; then they use the power of the media to drive the narrative in their favor……….then they go to the table to dictate the terms, not negotiate.