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Election Polling

The first reading, “How to do an Election Survey,” states in the beginning that the purpose of an election survey is to predict the outcome of the election. Success and failure of a poll and the person conducting the poll is based on how well the poll predicts the outcome. Election polling is difficult because there are few ways to test the validity of the poll. One way to test validity is to compare the demographic data collected by the census with the poll’s sample. The chapter then goes on to educate the reader on what to do to make sure your own poll matches the election outcome.
First sampling, the most popular form of sampling is random digit dialing. When sampling, it is important to use a random sample from start to finish. Refusals are important to the validity of your election poll, and refusals are one of the main sources of error. It is important to identify the voters; low participation rates make polling harder. When conducting a poll you need a large sample size and you need to make sure your sample is registered to vote. Be careful not to sacrifice quality for costs, and make sure to sample smart. Other important practices when conducting an election poll include asking the right questions, correctly dealing with the undecided, correctly weighting your data, and knowing what to report. The author also writes about election-night projections, and there are two basic methods, projecting from the early-reporting precincts, and exit polls. To conduct an exit poll you must draw a random sample and, interview every Nth voter using a self-administered questionnaire.
Gawiser and Witt, chapter 17, go into more detail on exit polling. Exit polling has been a practice since the late nineteenth century, but now the news media are the ones asking the questions. Exit polls have grown to be the most visible part of election coverage on television and in newspapers. Some say CBS News conducted the first real exit poll in 1967.
The exit poll is like an intercept poll. People who have just voted are asked to complete a questionnaire as they leave their polling place. There are two main purposes for exit polling, first to project elections, and second to analyze results. Each registered voter has a known chance of being selected. Once the sample is chosen, interviewers are recruited for each of the sample precincts. The interviewer counts the voters leaving the polling place and selects respondents using an interval system (i.e. Nth). The exit poll instrument is very short and usually administered on a clipboard. Information that is collected is quickly analyzed and prepared for presentation on news stations.
Gawiser and Witt, chapter 16, is about reporting polls, specifically political surveys. Horse-race polls are queries that simulate the election decision and select the potential voters who will cast their ballots in the coming election. An example of a question includes, “If the election were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat; John McCain, the republican; or the independent?” Horse-race questions are designed to answer one question directly and one indirectly. When polls are published, political campaign managers will try and spin the story in the best light. Good professional consultants do not lie, but highlight the positives and downplay the negatives. A good journalist must avoid putting the campaign’s spin on the poll numbers. Horse-race polls are much criticized. The concentration of horse-polls is put on who’s ahead in the race, and not on the candidate’s stance on issues, performance, and the differences between candidates. If journalists become swept up in this, journalism suffers and in the end the voters seeking to make a rational choice suffer.
I know from experience that horse-race polls influence voter’s perspectives on the election. I struggled with deciding whom I would vote for in the last election. Horse-race polls influenced me throughout the election, when one candidate was winning I was more inclined to vote for them. I was fixated on who was winning and didn’t stop to research the candidates’ stances on issues. In the end I believe when I went to my polling place I was uninformed and I suffered.
My example comes from the Working Californians website. The poll is titled, “WC’s Democratic Primary Horse Race Poll: Hillary Leads, Race far from over.” The poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 19-point lead in the California Democratic Primary. At the time of the poll, her advantage was largely based on her name recognition, which sparked beliefs that she was the stronger general election candidate. However, this information was incorrect, and Obama ended up winning the Democratic Party. This poll illustrates the inaccuracy of horse-race polling and the influence it can have on voters.