Scientists tackle the carbon conundrum

Nov 16, 2011

U.S. scientists have developed a new, integrated, ten-year science plan to better understand the details of Earth's carbon cycle and people's role in it. Understanding the carbon cycle is central for mitigating climate change and developing a sustainable future. The plan builds on the first such plan, published in 1999, but identifies new research areas such as the role of humans as agents and managers of carbon cycling and climate change, the direct impact of greenhouse gases on ecosystems including changes to the diversity of plants and animals and ocean acidification, the need to address social concerns, and how best to communicate scientific results to the public and decision makers.

The first carbon science plan for the U.S., published in 1999, resulted in numerous breakthroughs for understanding the carbon cycle and how it is changing in response to human pressures. For instance, researchers discovered that the huge quantities of CO2 absorbed by the oceans are causing ocean acidification, which is harming sea life and affecting the food chain. Research also characterized the large uptake of carbon by plants and soils in the Northern Hemisphere, and found that understanding land use and disturbance patterns is integral to understanding the global carbon cycle.

The new plan is the culmination of a three-year effort with input from hundreds of scientists about the current needs of the research community. Carnegie Institution for Science's Anna Michalak, Duke University's Rob Jackson, Appalachian State University's Gregg Marland, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Christopher Sabine led the work on the 2011 A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan.*

"Although there has been a bonanza of new understanding about the carbon cycle over the last decade, many new questions have arisen," remarked Michalak of Carnegie's Department of Global Ecology. "A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan lays the groundwork for expanding beyond a primary focus on the 'natural' carbon flows between the atmosphere, oceans, and plant life, to fully integrate human impacts and the role of both intentional and inadvertent carbon management decisions."

The team developed four science elements to drive the research. The backbone of the research strategy is to strengthen the network of observations to better monitor and track carbon as it winds its way through the atmosphere, ecosystems, oceans and society, and to find out how this changes over time. Other elements include studies of the processes that control the flows and transformations of carbon, and developing numerical models to predict future behavior.

Another important aspect of the plan is its increased emphasis on communication and making research more accessible to policy makers and the general public. It is hoped that this will lead to rational and well-informed decisions on how best to manage the global carbon cycle, especially the human impacts on it.

In an era of tight budgets and with public questions about the value of science, this plan calls for an expanded role for careful, integrated, and clear science to inform and support human objectives for a sustainable environment.

More information: *The report is published by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research supported by NASA, DOE, USDA, USGS, NOAA, NSF, and NIST. The authors are Anna Michalak, Robert B. Jackson, Gregg Marland, Christopher L. Sabine, and the Carbon Cycle Science Working Group.

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They'll be attacked by liberals for being too conservative in their approach.

They'll be attacked by conservatives for being too liberal.

They'll be attacked by both for claiming as fact anything the attacker doesn't particularly agree with.

This is a very sad state of affairs for science.

Rubbish, thats the worst reasoning ever. If you don't know why people bother, then perhaps you're undeserving of the name nerdyguy in favor of dopey?

The real problem is that carbon emissions isn't the full picture.

A thing called entropy was created to help explain more fully the phenomenon and exploitation of HEAT. (HELLO, global warming is heat, is changes in entropy) and the laws of thermodynamics are also expressed in terms of entropy.

Rubbish, thats the worst reasoning ever. If you don't know why people bother, then perhaps you're undeserving of the name nerdyguy in favor of dopey?

Hmmm...too funny that you would choose to insult me because you're too stupid to understand the meaning of my post.

A thing called entropy was created to help explain more fully the phenomenon and exploitation of HEAT. (HELLO, global warming is heat, is changes in entropy) and the laws of thermodynamics are also expressed in terms of entropy.

And do you have a point? I picture that you've opened up that high-school textbook and are pointing with one finger, typing with the finger on the other hand. lmao

This whole man made global warming hoax has been "validated" by a handful of computer simulations who's outcome was hacked up to prove the wishes of the highest bidders. If the governments were willing to pay for an outcome that proves that some other activity, that can be regulated and licensed for someones profit, causes warming, cooling or other potential milady, our universities will gladly provide a computer simulation to prove the need to regulate the activity providing the grant money is forthcoming.

This whole man made global warming hoax has been "validated" by a handful of computer simulations who's outcome was hacked up to prove the wishes of the highest bidders. If the governments were willing to pay for an outcome that proves that some other activity, that can be regulated and licensed for someones profit, causes warming, cooling or other potential milady, our universities will gladly provide a computer simulation to prove the need to regulate the activity providing the grant money is forthcoming.

I feel almost absurd asking this, but ummmmmm.....could you show any evidence of this "hacking up" for the highest bidder?

"This whole man made global warming hoax has been "validated" by a handful of computer simulations" - MR166

What? You mean that the world isn't observed to be warming?

How can that be when your own denialist Koch brothers paid for a study (BEST) that looked at global temperatures and found that the IPCC, NOAA, NASA, CRU, all have the science right, and the world really is warming, by .14'C over the last decade.

Ooh...a ten year plan...does this sound like: "Let's give ourselves another 10 years before we do anything" or not?

And then the study will end inconclusive and will be followed up by another ten year plan.

Don't get me wrong: studying the carbon cycle is a worthwhile effort. But only now getting to the point where they want to "increase emphasis on communication and making research more accessible to policy makers "...it's a little late for that. The policy makers that rae savvy already know what they need - and those that don't are too dumb to ever get the message.

Direct observation of the sun shows that it's output has been in overall decline over the last 2 or 3 solar cycles while global temperatures have risen.

You poor, ignorant Tard you.

O? So you think I mean only solar flares; and at the same time ignore the general mechanism proposed here which includes such things as flares by virtue of generic application of entropy, includes such things as carbon emission as increased entropy via state changes... and you call me the Tard.

Why do you even come to science forums when its obvious you are not even open minded? Scientists, the good well reasoned ones, hate being as blind as you've illustrated here

Ed...your constant use of the term "entropy", which as I understand it relating to thermodynamics is used as a term to describe the heat generated as a bi-product during changes of state of matter (ie: Co2 going from a gas to a carbon solid), may be a factor if considering an attempt at artificially increasing the carbon uptake of a natural system for sequestering it. But as far as understanding the carbon cycle itself, the most basic parts of the equation (total amount of carbon emitted vs. the amount absorbed),entropy is at best a sidebar notation that additional heat is contributed because of it. Climate change as a whole must take it into account, but it is difficult to measure entropy and therefore can't really be inserted into a climate model to "increase" accuracy.

@ AntPhys....BINGO!!! You are absolutely correct, your prize for being so observant is an all inclusive vacation to balmy Ellesmere Island on the North shore of Canada...BRING YOUR SWIM TRUNKS, the waters nice!

... But as far as understanding the carbon cycle itself, the most basic parts of the equation (total amount of carbon emitted vs. the amount absorbed),entropy is at best a sidebar notation that additional heat is contributed because of it.

Rubberman; You've completely misrepresented the ideal of modelling. And entropy of itself never adds heat independently of the system it's modelling().

The value of entropy lies in the fact that it can be used to model more than state changes, it is versatile and dynamic capable of even modelling E=MC2 and shifts in mass about the OZONE region into outer space. And, it can even be extended to model how the latent heat capacity of the oceans have changed.

Since all these things and more can be describe by the change in entropy, It is a tool that when applied correctly, is capable of giving a great - if not the best model by which all contributing GW factors can be represented.

Hi Ed. Carbon cycle...focus.Maybe re-read the article. Although it indirectly addresses global climate change by remarking that understanding the carbon cycle is central to understanding climate change, the analysis is of the carbon cycle itself, not all of the variables of climate change.Entropy does not produce or absorb carbon and therefore is not worth including in a model that simulates carbon uptake vs. carbon emmission....

I'm not even going near your earth moon mass change and how that effects the carbon cycle.

The paper seems to ask me whether the general population have the right know what really going on.

I gave everyone a method by which they can access the truth. Something you seem to either deliberately or ignorantly miss (I know not which).

FACT "Entropy can be used to track a carbon cycle." More than that, entropy guided by these 3 postulates posted here can predict what conditions will be like during the extreme environmental conditions.(the 3rd postulate has a local and long range order; i.e. CO2 20 km above the sea can't be absorbed into the oceans)

But the bigger issue is the political motivations. There is a GREAT BIG FAT PHYSICAL FACT that is deliberately hidden not just by me, but by the prevailing political environment.

But it is not completely hidden, I have given the guide by which the truth is undeniably revealed. Only individuals with enough understanding of the physics will be able to access the truth of it. (Others rely more on faith an instinct)

I totally wish mankind were mature enough to be collective. But the fact is, we're not...

Actually, I should qualify this better.

The general population, by on large, are far more capable than the political leadership gives them credit & capacity for.

The real immaturity isn't in the population, but in the decisions to keep & maintain peoples ignorance. The leadership! the prevailing policy is the reason why there isn't any development toward solutions in GW.

People know ultimately that we die of old age... yet continue to live anyway... that right there is the true testament to resilience, and to our capacity to accept the facts.

I am capable of using the entropy postulates to write a negative contribution to the sum of the total entropy...

i.e. use of solar cells to power a liquid nitrogen extractor lowers the sum of entropy.

Setting up science systems that trace energy transformations in terms of the entropy changes enables science to find solutions.

And for general interests, to help the general public understand the entropy score of the above example, it is the highest scoring example I can think of...

there is a stored entropy score in the transformation of suns energy... this goes towards an increase in mass potential... which ultimately goes to the momentum (increases the system capacity) -- judgement to GW --good effect!

there is a state entropy change from a gas into a solid -- judgement to GW -- good effect

There is a temperature sink hole due to the temperature of liquid nitrogen-- judgement to GW -- good effect.

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