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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000639
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2022
TAGS: KDEMPRELPGOVKUMHU
SUBJECT: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: FIDESZ APPROACHES ITS PARTY
CONGRESS
REF: A. A: BUDAPEST DAILY REPORT 04-13-2007
¶B. B: BUDAPEST DAILY REPORT 03-09-2007
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (C) FIDESZ and party president Viktor Orban appear stable
in advance of the party Congress on May 5. All indications
are that Orban will remain unchallenged for now, and that the
party will make a "political declaration" but will not
announce any long-term policy platform at the meeting. After
suffering losses in the past two national elections, FIDESZ
members admit the party is "hungry for political success,"
but "focused on maintaining its political base for now."
Observers predict that the party will slowly ratchet up its
efforts to attract voters closer to the 2009 EU elections.
FIDESZ insiders do not believe that PM Gyurcsany's popularity
will recover, and they expect to gain more support in 2008, a
belief that may dictate FIDESZ'S tactics in Parliament. The
party currently participates in "private, five party
negotiations" on the expert level within Parliament, but
refuses to engage with the government publicly. Hungary's
relations with Russia in general and on energy security in
particular continue to be hot button issues for FIDESZ, and
party members believe that Russia and Germany have reached
"quiet agreements" to trade Deutsche Telecom subsidiaries in
Hungary and Montenegro, in lieu of the German parent company.
----------------------------------
LITTLE DRAMA AT THE PARTY CONGRESS
----------------------------------
¶2. (C) The FIDESZ party Congress, set for May 5, will
provide little drama for the top spot as undisputed party
leader Viktor Orban is uncontested in the race. However, in
a break from the tradition of predetermined party voting,
five candidates will compete for four vice president
positions. After years of careful staging, one observer
noted, "what others might call democracy in FIDESZ looks like
disarray." Party insiders take this as a sign that Mayor,
Member of Parliament and possible Orban rival, Lajos Kosa,
can not be denied a spot in the party leadership. According
to Member of Parliament and FIDESZ Parliamentary Caucus
Director Robert Repassy, by publicly encouraging all five
candidates to run, "Orban is acknowledging Kosa's popularity"
while not specifically endorsing him. Repassy reasons that
if Orban thought he could "keep Kosa out" he would have
called for party support of the other four incumbent
candidates, thus cutting Kosa out of the race.
¶3. (C) Orban is divided on whether to follow a new strategy
of dialogue and negotiation or to continue the present course
of opposing all government positions, according to the MP.
Currently, "behind the scenes," Repassy confirmed that policy
experts and MPs engage in discussion and deliberations "among
all five parties," but he said, "FIDESZ will not engage the
Gyurcsany government publicly." Repassy also said that Orban
"has been weighing his options" in the weeks leading up to
the party Congress, while he travels the countryside building
support for the Congress among party members. He'll have
work to do, critics within the party believe, as many
complain of the party's habit of leaning on local officials
for financial support and see the trip as "proof only that
Orban needs money." According to Levente Benko, FIDESZ
Foreign Affairs Committee energy policy analyst, Orban is
also adjusting his tactics by curtailing is firebrand
rhetoric in the Hungarian media in favor of "letting experts
discuss policy issues (like energy security) in public" (REF
A). This also allows him to seek a role on the broader
European stage.
-----------------------------------
FOLLOW THE MONEY TO ORBAN'S SUPPORT
-----------------------------------
¶4. (C) In a rare and remarkably candid discussion of party
financing, Mr. Benko said that FIDESZ "does not have the
large numbers of contributors" that the MSZP courts for
support. Rather, FIDESZ contributors number a very small
group of financiers from the Hungarian banking and media
sectors. All of the contributors "support only Orban" for
the time being, which solidifies his position. Benko
believes that the rise of a new centrist faction is possible
in Hungarian politics before the 2010 national elections, but
is quick to point out that it must have funding and be able
to attract "disaffected voters from several parties." When
asked if the small group of FIDESZ financiers would be a
possible source of funding, Benko said "only if they lose
confidence in Orban." He added that, though the fall
referendum vote is important, the 2009 European Parliament
elections will be the litmus test for Orban.
----------------
FIDESZ ON RUSSIA
----------------
¶5. (C) Though its criticism is often met with charges of
"radical nationalism" by the government coalition (especially
regarding foreign investment), one of the recent "successes"
FIDESZ enjoys is the ability to raise public awareness
regarding GOH energy and trade policies toward Russia.
According to Mr. Benko, Foreign Affairs Committee chairman
Zsolt Nemeth and other senior party experts are leading
FIDESZ's efforts to call attention to the Nabucco pipeline as
an alternative to the Russian controlled Blue Stream pipeline
consortium. According to Benko, not only is energy
diversification a critical domestic security issue, but for
FIDESZ "it is an opportunity to mend fences" with the U.S.
and the UK, because they feel PM Gyurcsany is "out of step"
with most of Hungary's allies on the issue. FIDESZ,
according to Benko, breathed new life into Nabucco in
Hungary, "but the Azeris must put gas in the pipe and the
U.S./UK must continue to lobby aggressively, if Gyurcsany is
to turn away from Putin."
¶6. (C) Of graver concern to Benko are rumors that PM Merkel
recently secured agreements with President Putin to divert
Russian investment away from Deutsche Telecom, and focus
instead on the conglomerate's subsidiary companies in Hungary
and Montenegro. Benko told poloff that "this is not only a
matter of national pride for Hungary" but also a national
security issue given that Magyar Telecom provides various
communications capabilities for the Hungarian military.
Asked Benko, "do you want Russia providing military
communications for a NATO partner?"
--------------------------------------------- -----
WHO IS NEXT?: HANDICAPPING THE FIELD OF CONTENDERS
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶7. (SBU) For more than a year political analysts and
academics have theorized about - and many looked forward to -
Orban's downfall. Though rumors of Orban's political demise
are premature given his continued control of the party, the
debate warrants analysis of likely contenders in the presumed
race for succession. Many political theorists and
politicians see Lajos Kosa, Antal Rogan, Zoltan Pokorni and
Tibor Navracsics as the principal contestants.
¶8. (SBU) Lajos Kosa, mayor of Debrecen, Hungary's second
largest city, is generally among the first names mentioned as
an Orban successor. His popularity among voters across party
lines and approval ratings that hover at 80 percent make him
an undeniable prospect. though a founding member of FIDESZ,
he is often viewed by his peers in Parliament as a "simple
country politician" that is "long on rhetoric and short on
political skills." FIDESZ MPs like Robert Repassy point to
Kosa's comments regarding MDF leader Ibolya David in a recent
Playboy interview that have people thinking that he is "too
unpolished" to lead the conservative party.
¶9. (SBU) Antal Rogan, mayor of the Fifth District in
Budapest, is touted by political analysts as a "young
up-and-comer" and leader of the next generation in FIDESZ.
He is not without detractors, however, and one MFA source
wondered how "Rogan can be so popular if everyone hates him."
Rogan served as FIDESZ campaign chief during the 2006
National Elections, and has received a heavy dose of
criticism from party elders for numerous high profile
campaign mistakes in the weeks before the election. As
mayor, he actively courts young voters and promotes the Fifth
District as a haven for young professionals. Most recently,
in a program clearly targeting women under 25, Rogan
announced that his district will provide free HPV cervical
cancer vaccinations. This is a new tactic in Hungarian
politics - and a clever one given the public perception that
the Gyurcsany government is reducing access to medical care -
but one which may nonetheless put Rogan at odds with Orban
and the old guard in FIDESZ.
¶10. (SBU) Zoltan Pokorni, mayor of FIDESZ stronghold
District 12 in Budapest also appears to have strained
relations with FIDESZ leadership. Much like Rogan, Pokorni
is using his office "to work his way out of Orban's doghouse"
and possibly compete for the Budapest's next mayoral race.
Pokorni is characterized as "the anti-Orban" for his
conciliatory leadership style and his willingness to engage
with coalition politicians on policy debates. Pokorni and
Rogan received a clear message from Orban after the local
elections in fall 2006 that "Istvan Tarlos (former District 3
mayor) is FIDESZ's candidate for Budapest mayor in 2006 and
will be again in 2010." they may accordingly see little
reason to remain in lock-step with Orban, and great advantage
in using their present positions as springboards to national
prominence.
¶11. (SBU) Tibor Navracsics, FIDESZ faction leader, clearly
has Orban's support in Parliament, though many in the party
discount his background in party staff and think-tank
positions. They may underestimate him at their own peril.
The first-time Member of Parliament is increasingly outspoken
(and increasingly quotable) as he continues to stage
relentless attacks on Gyurcsany's "government by perpetual
crisis." However, many commentators, including SZDSZ MP
Gabor Fodor, think Navracsics is "more moderate than the
party line." If so, Navracsics may be well-suited to tack
back toward the center in the future.
-----------------------------------------
ONE MORE LAST CHANCE: THE 2007 REFERENDUM
-----------------------------------------
¶12. (SBU) The resilience of Orban and FIDESZ, in the face of
multiple defeats over the two previous national election
cycles, is remarkable. Predictions of the FIDESZ party
leader's downfall have been a staple in Hungarian politics
for years. The "next last chance" for Orban to oust
Gyurcsany, according to many commentators, is the National
Referendum vote slated for fall 2007. The Constitutional
Court has approved three issues (REF B) for consideration.
None of the questions are likely to inspire the 50 percent
turnout (roughly 4 million voters) required by law. A strong
showing in the referendum will translate to support for
Orban, and give him momentum to solidify himself as the
undisputed leader of FIDESZ into the 2009 EU and 2010
national elections. Poor turnout in the referendum, however,
will be regarded as (another) failure. It will leave Orban
looking for another tactic, and perhaps others in the party
more openly looking for another standard-bearer.
FOLEY