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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Ibanez's tie-breaking hit guides Phillies past Cubs

Raul Ibanez's 8th-inning single drove in Chase Utley from second to snap a 4-4 tie, and Jose Contreras worked out of a first-and-third, no-out
jam in the 9th, as the Phillies beat the
Cubs 5-4 to split their two game set.

Beerleaguer: In a
game of standout performers, the excellence of Chase Utley shined brightly. The All-Star second baseman sent a solo shot
over the right-field fence in the first, but contributed just as much
with his base-running savvy on Ibanez's game-winning single.
Jimmy Rollins accounted for the bulk of the Phillies' scoring with a
three-run homer. And just when it looked like the Cubs had located the
Phils' pressure point in the 'pen, tying the game 4-4 on a Kosuke
Fukudome homer off Antonio Bastardo in the eighth, Danys Baez retired
the next three batters, then Contreras ended it with a pair of
strikeouts and a pop-out. This was a true save situation, the first in
the post-Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson era. After Contreras found the
strike zone, perhaps rusty from a five-day layoff, the 38-year-old
rookie closer handled the ninth with poise, and is absolutely unafraid to pitch inside.

51 Comments

I enjoyed Contreras' lack of control. Many of his misses (without going back to look) were tight and inside to right handers, and the strike three swinging to the completely astray A Ramirez was some entertainment.

The main story is going to be Contreras in the 9th, but I'm glad you pointed out Utley's baserunning. Drawing the walk and scoring on Ibanez's single was classic Utley. So was tagging up and getting to 2nd on Howard's fly ball the AB before Rollins' HR.

I don't think a single person on here predicted that Contreras was going to be the Phils' closer for a prolonged stretch in the 1st half.

If you had told me that before the season, I would have told you the bullpen was in shambles. Instead, it has gotten some strong early performances from Durbin & Contreras and more importantly not been overexposed this season.

Not surprised though the bullpen began to post better numbers since Blanton came back & Moyer/KK both were pretty damn solid too.

Harder to say who has been the most pleasant surprise in the early going but Moyer gets my vote over Contreras. Not only been giving the Phils the inning they need (and didn't get form his last year) but he has been very effective the past month to boot.

In the course of yesterday's game thread MG was wondering what record the Phillies had accrued in Businessperson's Specials since CBP opened in '04. Thanks to the crapfest that was last night's Flyers game, I had the time to go back through the relevant Media Guides & find an answer. Said answer is not pretty ...

The Phillies have played 43 designated Businessperson's Specials from 04/15/2004 through 05/20/2010. Their overall record in those games is 15-28, or a .349 winning percentage. The breakdown is as follows:

'10 2-1 *
'09 2-4
'08 4-3
'07 1-6
'06 1-6
'05 3-4
'04 2-4

* 3 more BPS are scheduled for the 2010 Season.

The prior ugliness is as compared to the Phillies overall record in Regular Season Day Games at CBP over the same period of 94-64 (158 Games), a .595 winning percentage.

Just for poos 'n' chuckles, I also found that the Phillies are 86-76 (162 Games, a .531 WP) in Regular Season Day Games on the Road in that period, which makes for a grand total of 180-140 (320 Games, a .563 WP) for All Regular Season Day Games from 04/15/2004 through 5/20/2010.

Overall, the Phillies have done remarkably poorly in Businessperson's Specials since CBP opened in '04. How poorly? They actually have a better winning percentage in Home Interleague Play Games (same period, 51 Games, 20-31, a .392 WP), All Interleague Play Games (same period, 99 Games, 39-60, a .394 WP) & even Road Interleage Play Games (same period, 48 Games, 19-29, a .396 WP).

So by all means, go to a Day Game -- hell, go to an Interleague Game -- but if you want a better chance of seeing the Fightins win avoid the BPS at all costs.

I can think of a couple of great BPS wins...the big comeback vs the Braves on WFC ring day last year, the epic comeback vs Billy Wagner to sweep the Mets in 2007. So you just might see a classic game if you don't avoid a BPS.

Was kinda hoping JW might have changed the spelling mistake in the headline by now. Don't expect perfection, but they aren't as jarring if they're not in bold at the top.

Don't look now, but Phils have second best record in MLB, behind only that team they beat in the WFS in 2008. Remember, we were very lucky to get to play them instead of some real team like the Red Sox.

Ya'll forget the 2001 Phillies, who were 25-17 on May 20 (ahead 5 games). Went 13-2 btwn May17 and June1. And were 8 games ahead on June1. Then the bottom slowly fell out...some stats from http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2001-schedule-scores.shtml. But I do remember them being ahead by a lot in the middle of summer, and knowing it wouldnt last :(

Nope, the great Wagner vs Burrell game was a thursday afternoon. The sweep in New York a few weeks later was on a sunday.
That was maybe the greatest baseball game I have ever seen. Werth running all over LoDuca and the Rat was great. The constant shots of Burrell on deck at the end of the game. Gooch's pop up slide at the plate and the celebration that followed. Amazing game.

@Mike Smith--it looks like our starting rotation in the home stretch of that season was Omar Daal, Brandon Duckworth, Dave Coggin, Robert Person, and Randy Wolf. Feels a little different this year, doesn't it?

Thought it was interesting how few BB Howard had through 40 games in 2006. He had just as many IBB thru 40 as this year as well (3).

It's actually something that he's been able to maintain a higher BA than 06 despite 6 fewer HR. His HR/FB so far is %17.5 so far this year compared to 34.9% in 06. His LD rate is up a tad and we've seen plenty of hits through the shift early on.

* for 07 is to mark that he had a DL stint. He was out from May 10th to the 24th so his 40th game didn't come til June 5th. The 07 start was strange for this reason but also because he got 16 IBB to start the year. .231/.387 - he was just getting pitched around. Makes those XBH more impressive.

I think Contreras will certainly be a positive contributor for the Phillies this season. His stuff passes the eye test and any time he comes in after a Moyer start he must be a nightmare to pick-up/hit.

However, his career K/BB tends to sit closer to 2.00 (slightly worse than Madson, nearly a full K/BB worse than Lidge) than to 10 (we saw some of this yesterday when he was super wild and extremely lucky to strike out Aramis Ramirez with a slider that never looked like a strike). Also, his WHIP almost has to go up.

I'm not saying he won't be effective in a late inning high leverage role long-term. Just that he will fail at some point and it shouldn't mean people should become uncomfortable with him closing or make sweeping judgments about his mental state (I'm predicting he'll never get a "too laissez-faire" accusation from these fans but perhaps a "squeezing it, gets too nervous" accusation will be in order), just that everyone fails sometimes in baseball.

Noah, of course he will. The question is how much his peripherals and success will change, and I'm not sure how on point his career numbers are -- he's never been a relief pitcher before. We'll have to wait and see.