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On Sept. 10, Apple is expected to announce a new iPhone and a (rumored, but essentially confirmed) “cheap” iPhone 5C. The price of the forthcoming “iPhone 5C” will determine its success in both the US and China, and will tell us a great deal about which market Apple is prioritizing, says mobile analyst Benedict Evans.

The older iPhone 4, sold at a discount, is already popular in emerging markets, which is probably all the evidence Apple needs that there is demand for a cheaper iPhone. The price of that phone will, however, determine a great deal, says Evans:

What price would Apple choose for a genuinely cheaper phone? There are four brackets worth looking at:

$150-$200 – the upper end of what is possible to sell to the unsubsidised prepay market – which is half the planet

$200-$400 – almost certainly out of reach without subsidies but a solid mid-range smartphone price range

Over $400 – similar price to the existing discounted two-year-old model, but with more up-to-date technology, possibly higher margins and probably an easier marketing sell than the ‘old’ phone

Evans’s ultimate conclusion is that the new “cheaper” iPhone will be priced somewhere between $300 and $450, which isn’t much less than the $450 Apple currently charges for the iPhone 4. But each end of that price spectrum represents a compromise: Too low, and Apple sacrifices profits in the US market, where phones subsidized by cell carriers make prices below $400 look the same to people as phones that are right at $400. And if the price is too high, it represents Apple sacrificing potential market share in China, where phones are bought separately from mobile plans, and every yuan counts.