News from the Votemaster

The polling continues apace. We have 28 new polls today with
changes in three states. First,
Wisconsin
has now switched to the Kerry column, according to a Zogby tracking poll conducted
Oct 23-26. Kerry is now ahead 48% to 46% in one of the swingingest
of the swing states. But with a margin of error of 4%, it is still
a statistical tie there.

Zogby also shows that
Iowa
has become a tie at 45% each, according to
its Oct. 23-26 poll. Gallup ran a poll in Iowa Oct. 22-25, only a day before
Zogby's, and found that among registered voters, Kerry leads 48% to 47%. However, among
what Gallup believes are likely voters, Bush is ahead 50% to 46%,
a surprisingly large difference. This immediately brings up the
issue of how Gallup decides to reject some respondents as unlikely
voters. The likely voter screen involves questions about past voting
behavior, interest in the election, and knowledge of where the polling place is. Given the
huge number of new voters this year, there are legitimate questions about how accurately
pollsters can predict likely voters. For this reason, the spreadsheet and map just use the
registered voter data where that is available. In this specific case, Zogby's poll is more
recent so the issue is moot.

The third change is in
Arkansas,
where Bush now leads again. This result is not
surprising as most observers didn't think there was much of a horse race in Arkansas to begin with.
All in all, Kerry gains ground in the electoral college today, reducing Bush's lead to 17 EVs.

Also noteworthy are the four Florida and four Ohio polls today although neither of those
states changed hands.
Of the four
Florida
polls, two of them (ARG and Survey USA) give Kerry leads of 3% and 2%, respectively, one of them
(Rasmussen) is a tie at 48% apiece, and one of them (Zogby) shows Bush ahead by 4%.
I find it ironic that all summer long I was bombarded with e-mail from Republicans denouncing
John Zogby as an unreliable Democrat, but that now that he is the only one showing Bush ahead in
the key swing states, the e-mail has abruptly ceased. But Zogby's poll is the most recent, so it
is the one I am using. Nevertheless, trouble is clearly brewing for Bush in Florida.

We also have four polls in
Ohio
today. Kerry leads in two (ARG and Survey USA) and trails in two (Zogby and Rasmussen).
As in Florida, everything will depend on turnout. It will be very close in any case.

Rasmussen did a survey asking people if they were
worried about a Florida-style mess again this year. The
results are that 48% of the Kerry voters are worried about
this as well as 16% of the Bush voters. I think it is very disturbing
when a third of the electorate have doubts about whether there will be
a fair election. No doubt these fears are enhanced when election officials reject
voter registrations because the paper was the wrong weight.
And having states go to court to fight for the right to discard provisional ballots
cast by voters in the wrong precinct (for example, because they have moved)
doesn't exactly send the message that every vote is important.
The
BBC
has scooped the U.S. media by obtaining a secret document that reports on more upcoming voter
suppression activities, possibly in violation of U.S. law

The
Los Angeles Times has a story today that explains why this election is so much more emotionally
charged than previous ones. It is not about economics, but part of a cultural war.
A new LA Times poll shows Bush doing well among lower and
middle income whites, whereas Kerry leads among whites earning more
than $100,000 a year despite his promise to roll back the Bush tax cuts for people making more
than $200,000 a year. As president, Bush has enacted big tax cuts for the rich but the rich are
voting for Kerry. What's up here? The same poll shows that 2/3 of the people who attend a house
of worship at least once a week are voting for Bush, whereas 60% of those who attend religious
services less than once a week are voting for Kerry, in part because these voters recoil at Bush's
constant use of religious imagery. Lower income whites like Bush's proposal to ban gay marriage
but only a quarter believe his policies have been good for the economy. In contrast, affluent
whites who have benefitted the most from the Bush tax cuts believe Bush's policies have hurt the
economy. In short, far more than in previous years, economic policy is taking a back seat to
cultural issues. The real divide seems to be between deeply religious lower income,
lower education, voters living in small towns and rural areas who have conservative values on
abortion and gay marriage versus higher income, higher education, secular, urban voters who
have progressive views on cultural issues. Maybe James Carville was wrong: It's NOT the economy,
stupid. With this background and the fact that eight of the nine Supreme Court justices are past
the traditional retirement age of 65 and four of them have been treated for
cancer, it is likely that the choice of who the next president will nominate to the Court
will weigh increasingly heavily on the minds of many voters as we approach election day.
For more on this issue, see this
story also, in the LA Times.

Projected Senate: 45 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 tossups
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