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Editor's Report

These may seem like bleak times, but there are many positive indicators promising a bright future for our industry. And you don't have to look very hard to find them.

American society is an anxious one nowadays, and with good reason. Our personal security may be threatened in ways most of us could never imagine before the events of last September. Confidence in our economy and industry leaders has faltered. And many people, no matter what business they're in, wake up some mornings wondering what the future holds for their profession.

We're lucky to be participants in the aftermarket service industry, and experts at the Seventh Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium (GAAS) recently held in Chicago showed us why.

Seventy billion dollars is a big number by any measure, and that's how high some estimates go for the amount of unperformed vehicle maintenance in the United States each year. We could argue that it's nothing more than an artificial feel-good number, but, no matter what the actual dollar amount is, there's no doubt that a lot of vehicle maintenance goes undone each year.

Speaking on the subject, Steve Odland, board chairman and CEO of AutoZone, reminded symposium attendees that the number of older vehicles (those over seven years) is increasing, that the total number of miles driven is increasing, that vehicle population is growing and that older vehicles will represent a higher portion of it.

On consumer awareness, Odland noted that a majority of motorists operate their vehicles in conditions deemed "severe" by most automakers, but don't know it. He suggests it's time the OEMs refer to vehicle operation as being either "light" or "normal," instead of the stalwart "normal" or "severe." As a step to educate consumers on the subject of preventive maintenance, he suggests that OEMs clear up the confusion by calling normal service "light" and severe service "normal." The Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association's (AAIA) recently announced "Be Car Care Aware" campaign should also improve consumer awareness.

Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, also paints a rosy picture for the aftermarket. He points out that vehicle durability has increased steadily from 92,000 miles in the 1960s to over 182,000 miles for current models. Besides the obvious benefits to the increased size of the vehicle fleet, these quality improvements have also created a dynamic used car market where the average vehicle now has four to five owners in its lifetime.

Another important factor DesRosiers asks us to consider is the increased percentage of trucks on the road because trucks have higher average repair costs per vehicle than cars. And, while some people might argue that the same improvements making vehicles last longer actually decrease the need for service and maintenance, DesRosiers contends that more complexity equals higher cost; technology may mean fewer repairs but not necessarily fewer dollars.

Throughout the life of a vehicle today compared to the 1970s, there may be fewer spark plug and exhaust system replacements, but that's offset by more brake jobs, air filters and battery replacements.

While tomorrow's cars will certainly provide the aftermarket with plenty of opportunity, it won't come to the unprepared. Speaking on the future of personal transportation, Francisco A. (Frank) Ordonez, president of Delphi Product & Service Solutions, predicts that electronic content of a vehicle, now about 20%, will more than double in the year 2010. Put another way, there are a total of 74 sensors, actuators and controllers on an average vehicle today, and that will go up to 170 in 2010. He also reminds us that the typical 1996 vehicle being serviced in today's aftermarket has only 10% electronic content. So, if you think the cars you're servicing now are high-tech, you haven't seen anything yet.

We all have days when it may seem hard to believe, but for committed participants in the aftermarket, a secure future is attainable.