Oil Price Jumps To Four-Year High, Nears $81

"We expect that those Opec countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels", said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.

Such a price rally would mark the first time since the summer of 2014 that oil would return to the $100-a-barrel level that became the norm in the early part of this decade.

The meeting ended with no formal agreement on any additional supply boost. Thus, prices are unlikely to rise as fast as and as high as they did in 2007/08 when the USA dollar weakened in response to Fed rates cuts.

Some have said softening demand from trade tensions between the U.S. and China to offset loss of Iranian supply, but Tradition's McGillian said that unless trade tensions show signs of eroding Chinese demand, oil prices will surge further.

Oil has climbed since early August as speculation swirls over whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will boost production, with sanctions on the Middle East nation's exports set to take effect in November. Yet the cartel and its allies gave mixed signals at a meeting in Algiers on Sunday, ultimately showing little sign they would heed US demands to rapidly push down crude prices. Trump said last week that OPEC "must get prices down now!" but Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Monday OPEC had not responded positively to Trump's demands.

They have reportedly been discussing raising output by half a million barrels a day to counter falling supply from Iran.

USA light crude was $1.25 higher at $72.03 on Monday.

The price rise is notably caused by a recent drop in Iran's supply because of USA sanctions.

His demand came after benchmark Brent oil reached $80 a barrel this month, despite his earlier assurances that USA curbs on Iran's oil exports would not affect the market because Saudi Arabia would make up for the shortage. The biggest source of new global supply, USA shale, is also experiencing growing pains as pipeline bottlenecks and workforce issues may hamper growth, he said.

Oil markets opened strongly on Tuesday, with Brent crude remaining near a four-year reached the previous session. However, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation now say they have no more capacity.

OPEC projects that "the strongest annual increases are seen in the near-term, in which total USA tight oil increases by an average of 1.4 million barrels a day" annually from this year to 2020.

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