Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 9, 2009 (iTunes Update!)

Happy Monday,

I wanted to let everyone know that the 411 is back in the iTunes store. If you enter 411 in the search you will find our video and audio versions under podcasts. Thanks for being patient while we dealt with some confusing red tape.

Speaking of iTunes our 2009 Season Preview Show of sleepers and busts hits the store later today or early tomorrow. We will post the names in tomorrow’s blog and look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Lastly I will send the Bryan Hoch interview that Paul Devlin conducted on Sunday to the 411 podcast so you can download it and get the latest out of Yankees camp on Alex. Should be there in a few hours.

Lots to do on iTunes this week and I am psyched about it.

With the news about Manny returning to Chavez Ravine I thought I would share my halloween costume with you in celebration…………Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

1B Questions: What is it fair to expect from Votto this year? How much difference do you predict between him, D.Lee, Atkins or Huff, or the drop down to LaRoche? I am trying to establish at what point it is too much of a reach for Votto given that those are the only other 1B options available in my draft that I trust.

Good question. Going off Votto’s game against Team USA the other day you’d think
he was a first rounder, but in all reality he is still right around
Lee’s value. I’d much rather have Votto than Atkins or Huff and he is a
better player than LaRoche. However, if you want to pass on all of them
and take LaRoche very late it may not be the worst risk in the world.
Votto is at best a 6th rounder but not much worse then an 8th or 9th.
His ADP has him in the 7th. If you are going safe take Lee, but if you are
going ceiling or in a keeper go Votto.

-Siano

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30 Comments

Guys, I have the 12th pick in a 12 team league. Assuming, that the first round holds form, I am thinking about taking Manny with one of the two picks. I figure that, value kind of goes out the door when you are picking at the end of the round because I’ll never get a player to come all the way back to me at 36. Berkman and Manny at 12 and 13, what do you think?
Thanks,
Rob

If you are taking Berkman because he is your favorite player or you are bent on taking a 1B I think you can do better. If Howard or Teixeira are there at 12 I’d take one of them before Berkman. As far as Manny goes you are right he won’t make it back to you and I strongly recommend getting a number one outfielder in the first two rounds and he is that. The only two OF I know I would take over Manny are braun and Sizemore and we have to assume they won’t last to 12. If Manny, Upton and Beltran are around it’s a good arguement for all of them but there would be nothing wrong with going Manny there. You are obviously going pop so you will have to make up for speed. Let us know what happens.

Hey guys,
10 team 6×6 (ops and holds)
I have the 4th pick for the upcoming season, and now that Arod will surely plummet into the 3rd round, who do you see as the best choice here? I would assume hanley and puljos go 1-2, so i will have either reyes, wright or cabrera there at 4. With OPS my extra cat, would you lean toward a 3b over reyes?
Thanks
Chris in columbus

Chris, I’d personally go Wright here but a good argument can be made for any three of these guys. Wright’s ’08 OPS was the highest among the three, and his ability to steal bases gives him the slight edge over Cabrera. I understand 3B is a pretty deep position this year, but simply put, Wright helps you across the board while the other two have clear weaknesses.

OK Zach, one step further. Wright goes #3 right in front of me. I am keeping Matt Kemp, so i have a small speed base already. Would you go Reyes, Miggy, Sizermore, or Braun? I dont just dont love reyes’ lack of rbi and power, with the average OPS and slightly above average BA. would the gigantic drop off at SS be enough to take him regardless?

I would go braun or Sizemore and try to get Furcal later on for my SS. Worst case maybe a Young or Jeter. Reyes to me especially with OBP is a risk. Whoever you like more between Ryan and Grady would be my pick. Cabrera is attractive as well but not at 4. I know he has gone there or higher but 1B is so deep.

Tough call, but I’d have a hard time passing up on Reyes in that spot. With Reyes and Kemp, you pretty much don’t have to worry about speed for the rest of the draft and can focus on power with your next two picks. I’m also big on drafting one of the top three shortstops if the opportunity presents itself, with taking Wright being the exception. After Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins, there’s absolutely no significant speed left at the position outside of Furcal, who comes with some injury risk.

A different kind of keeper question here. I’m in a 12 team, NL-only league with $280 at auction, 25 players auctioned and another 15 chosen in reserve draft. We can keep as many as twelve players. We can keep players for three years at the price at which they were acquired. However, we can sign players to long-term contracts prior to the third year for five dollars per season, with the escalation taking place immediately. For instance, I have Matt Kemp at $12. If I want to sign him for two extra years beyond this one, he’ll cost me $22 for ’09, ’10 and ’11.
Here are the guys who I have to make decisions on:
Matt Kemp at $12, Hunter Pence at 5, Geovany Soto at 5, Chris B Young at 15, Manny Corpas at 2, Carlos Marmol at 10 and Jonathan Sanchez at 1.
Normally, I’d consider extending a few of these guys, but I lost the championship on the last day last season and had to settle for a sour 2nd place, so I feel like maximizing my dollars to win this year and worry about the future after a YooHoo shower. What do you think? All in for this year or think about the future or a mix thereof?
Thanks, Dave in Delaware

Here’s one you’ve probably got sick of answering over the past few days!

5 Keepers (12 team vanilla), I have Tex, Longoria, Soriano and Markakis. I had A-Rod pencilled in, but can’t risk the 4-month layoff, or the diminished numbers he might put up if he plays on (it’s a competitive league, I need all I can get from Day 1). I have Haren, Phillips, Chipper, Big Erv and Votto to pick from.

Watching the WBC this morning keeping track of how people are playing, was pondering the question of do I take what I see with a pinch of salt? I know Perez is Club DTM, even tho it was us aussies who belted him around, and Jeter is hitting .600, but just how much value do you all place in how a player goes so long before the start of regular season?

By the way…we may just cop a pounding by the Cubans, but at least we won one!

No issue at all with keeping all these guys for 2009. Most if not all of these prices are outstanding considering the roster sizes and cap being $280 instead of $260. However, I wouldn’t be so quick to extend anyone which you seem to be leaning towards. Pick the special players at the special prices. I could see it on Kemp and Pence. Soto is intriguing but why not just ride him out at cost value for two more years? I could make that arguement with any of these players but kemp and Pence are enormous values even with immediate escalation. Soto is too but the wear and tear of a catcher makes me a little nervous.

I know you submitted this before the latest news so let’s just go from there. It looks like A-Rod is at worst a 3rd rounder now and will miss 25% of the season not 4 months. He will still go before everyone on your list with Phillips being fairly close. I keep A-Rod , put him on DL and use my 6th rounder to take the best player avail (Phillips?), best 3B avail or maybe even Votto if Phillips is gone. When A-Rod comes back he should be around 90% and you dont have to trade for him.

It’s nice to see guys do well in WBC but also realize these guys are pros and the competition sometimes is what it is. Votto has looked tremendous along with Jeter while Chipper looks 100 years old but unless an injury occurs you have to take guys on a club now with a grain of salt, its the pudges and pedros I watch because right now there is no other way to see them.

I’m more worried about your offense then your pitching, your OF is lights out but your IF is mediocre right now. having Votto definitely helps and I like Doumit and Furcal but you need more.

Wandy, Volstad and sanchez have some value in this league so I would package some arms and bats and upgrade my IF. Adrian Gonzalez shouldnt be the scariest guy in your IF power wise. Pitching will take care of itself but you could have done a little better. Hopefully Perez and Vazquez step up.

Tom, I think that package could net a late first, early second rounder but what 3B do you really see going there? Wright and Cabrera (who might be 3B eligible) will be long gone, and it’ll be too early to draft Longoria or Aramis. 3B is plenty deep this year, so I advise waiting on drafting one. This package is too good to give up easily. Try focusing on another position with that pick (Kinsler, Tex?) Just because you have Nelson Cruz doesn’t mean Quentin is easily expendable.

The list will be unveiled tomorrow but a sneak peek that I have Nelson Cruz on my overrated list for 09′. I think comparing Cruz to Quentin is a huge mistake. Now if Quentin and Votto gets you David Wright or Longoria that’s one thing, but after that the next best 3B not named A-Rod is Aramis Ramirez. Trading Quentin and Votto for Ramirez is overpaying since Carlos and Aramis are going close to each other. Cruz and Votto for Aramis now that is a trade that would get me excited.

Now that the whole A-Roid issue has been somewhat ironed out, where would you take him in an AL-only draft and what would you pay for him in an AL-only auction. I have both coming up later this month and in the draft I have the 8th pick… it’s not a serpentine draft so my next pick would be the 18th. I already have Youkilis as a keeper as well so I can stick him in the 3B slot as I wait for A-Rod to return from the DL. Chances are, I’m looking at guys like Crawford, Bay, Ichiro, Vlad, Markakis and Big Papi (or a pitcher…yuk) with the 8th pick based on what’s expected to be available at that point.

Unfortunately, I also have Big Erv as one of my keepers… what’s the story with his sprained MCL? We have 3 bench spots and one IR spot for DL-eligibles.

A-Rod is still a top 10 player in a straight draft. Youre not going to take Ichiro or Crawford before him. Vlad, Papi and of course a pitcher are bad options as well. Markakis is great but still not that great to pass on A-Rod. You make a good point with Youk and I think you take A-Rod at 8. In a bubble I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Longoria first but after A-Rod and Longoria it’s Figgins and Huff at 3B. As far as auction goes just knock 25% off his perceived value. I think if healthy he would have went for $48-50 so since he will miss 1/4 of the season as of now make him $35ish. Big Erv is scaring me b/c it’s his elbow, but the Angels know how to handle these thing ie. Lackey last year. If he only misses the first two weeks you’ll probably live since you have a 3 man bench.

Siano, I know you like to take a #1 OF in the first two picks, but why why why when you can tackle position scarcity in the middle infield or 3B first? Is the dropoff in OF talent really as significant as that in the M.I., or do the OF’s just put up MUCH better numbers?
-Another Mike

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