We previously noted that both beef and pork (courtesy of the affectionately named Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus) prices have been reaching new all time highs on an almost daily basis. It is time to update the chart. Below we show what a world in which the Fed is constantly lamenting the lack of inflation looks like for beef prices...

Prices for shrimp have jumped to a 14-year high in recent months, spurred by a disease that’s ravaging the crustacean’s population. At Noodles & Co., a chain with locations across the country, it costs 29 percent more to add the shellfish to pastas this year, and shrimp-heavy dishes at places like the Cheesecake Factory Inc. are going up as well.

Restaurant chains, already struggling with shaky U.S. consumer confidence, are taking a profit hit as prices climb. Even worse, the surge is happening during the season of Lent, when eateries rely on seafood to lure Christian diners who abstain from chicken, beef and pork on certain days.

“It’s coming at a tough time for the industry,” said Andrew Barish, a San Francisco-based analyst at Jefferies LLC. “With the Lenten season, what you’ll see out there is a lot of promotions with seafood, and usually shrimp is a big part of that.”

In March, shrimp prices jumped 61 percent from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The climb is mainly due to a bacterial disease known as early mortality syndrome. While the ailment has no effect on humans, it’s wreaking havoc on young shrimp farmed in Southeast Asia, shrinking supplies.

***

James Johnson, a Jewel-Osco supermarket shopper in Chicago, has noticed the price increase. He’s been cutting back on one of his favorite dishes -- shrimp and potato soup -- because of the cost.

“I haven’t made it in a while,” the 29-year-old said. “Shrimp looks expensive.”

***

At Noodles, it now costs $3.34 to add the shellfish to a meal of pasta or pad thai, compared with $2.59 last year.

“We still want to at least offer it as choice,” Chief Executive Officer Kevin Reddy said in a phone interview. “As soon as the costs begin to normalize, we’ll return to the regular price.”

Ah yes, because retailers are always so willing to lower costs...

So for all those whose sustenance includes iPads and LCD TVs, or heaven forbid the pink slime known as fast food - you are in luck: the BLS' hedonic adjustments mean the rate of price increase in your daily consumption has rarely been lower. For everyone else: our condolences.

The term "night soils" is, I believe, from China. Had to do with disposing of human waste directly on the adjacent fields: soils HAVE to be built back up. I suspect that stir-fry came to be the means by which they averted food illness: most pathogens are killed in fairly short order at temps of 160 degrees F; even quicker at higher temps.

More folks need to take a tour of waste-water treatment plants to understand how energy and resource intensive it is. And note that many plants turn around and sell the processed "shit" back to you as compost! Yes, send shit out and get it back! That nice bag of compost that you've just picked up from the store so that you can plant your nice "healthy" vegetables might be from...

I have a friend who recently went to a local restaurant and ordered a cup of crab bisque. When the crab bisque was served, he noted there there was no visible sign of crab meat. He asked the server where the crab meat was, and he was told the crab bisque was made with the "essence" of crab... (100% true story)

I suppose what were are experiencing (according to the Fed) is the "essence" of inflation vs. real inflation.

He told me he considered leaving that server the "essence" of a tip, but he realized it wasn't the server's doing to be chintzy on crab meat. He never went back to that restaurant (which is in the DFW area).

I have something for you. I just measured some Alaskan king crab shells with my ultra low background germanium detector. The only thing I found to my surprise a K-40 peak and that was it. I ran the test and counted for three days.

Just for clarity, and I do hesitate to even bring this up, but bisque isn't supposed to have meat in it. It's smooth and creamy, and it is in fact made from cooked-then-strained seafood that isn't quality enough to be sold on the market. So it is kind of made from the essence of the seafood, not including the actual seafood.

I don't even know how I know this, as I prefer Cheetos to anything seafood. But it's true, nevertheless. I used to watch a lot of cooking shows on PBS.

Local ad for 'Top Soil' is now a 3/4cf bag instead of the 1cf last year that was .20 cheaper. Even dirt's more expensive and I expect they'll be shipping it here from Japan soon. 'Look honey! Our tomatoes are absolutely glowing!'

Yes, it of course has nothing to do with that. In the world of economic academia, the Fed has nothing to do with record low rates on the 10Y bond because they only control short term rates, the 10Y yield is a consequence of a slow economy. The Fed has nothing to do with the stock market rally of 2009-now also, because this is simply a consequence of a strong recovering economy. And beef price ramps have nothing to do with Fed short term rate policy even though the last two major ones correlate pretty damn good with record low fed fund rates. (2001, started to go on a downward trend in 2005 when rates where starting to be ramped up and 2009, when well, we know what the Fed did there).

I love beef so much I bought me a whole steer. He's like a puppy, and follows me around the yard. When prices went up I decided to eat him. (Saved a fortune that week) Not having the heart, I just had the vet get one leg off for me. He still gets around pretty well.His old name was Arnold, but now I just call him Tripod.

Got acre of garden, small orchard, couple greenhouses, chickens in coop, catfish in two ponds, two feeder pigs in their lot, and 4 Dexter cows ( beef/milk ). Ask me if I give a shit what food prices do.

My fish eat leftover greens and duckweed that grows in shallow pools, they feed the veggies growing above, and in turn become food. Chickens eat the bugs and worms from the beds plus greens(including duckweed), produce eggs and meat. I don't currently have the room for cows but I do for goats so those would provide milk and meat off the forage on my acreage so I'll be adding those. Other plantings provide fruits, berries, veggies, etc. It's a workin progress...food progress.

We already had two high tunnel green houses when the grants came out... Now we hobbiest competing with us for the same market using .gov monies. Gotta love that. It the plastic that will cost you and most is rated for four years so the mrs. And I predict skeletons of these things dotting the countryside for decades to come. They are nice, if nothing else they keep the deer out. We then invested in a 12K sq. ft. Monster and I sell about 1000 worth of produce a week out of it when it is humming along niclely.

So $16 a kilo but is that Iowa corn fed on MON810 with 3000ppm of Gyphosate yes you will go stirile eating it because of the higher ppm , last year it was only 240ppm . Or was is pasture only fed with NO injections or treatments , now there is really a differance.

It's like printing paper to just toss into the trash can. The holes in banks' balance sheets are so huge that most all is going to (try to) fill them, leaving little to actually do work in the real world.

Yes, decline of quality is a real problem. I ate at a local steak place this past weekend, and the steak was surprisingly excellent. The mashed potatoes and bread were horrible, however. How hard is it to make good mashed potatoes and serve good bread and butter? Most restuarants don't even try. My husband and I rarely eat out, but when we do, we are almost always disappointed.

I'm a little late to the game on my reply, but soil depletion is a major factor in this. I'm coming around to the belief (through years of first hand experience with my own small scale ventures) that as nutrient content of the soil diminishes, even the basics like wheat and potatoes lose the vital components that make them taste great. Same with plantation timber, grasses for cattle etc. Without the raw materials (grass, wheat, potatoes in this instance) being of a consistently high quality, the result is a nutritional wasteland further down the line as each item is processed.

Regardless of whether this is managed or not it is the ONLY direction that things can head (increased world-wide demand vs resource base).

Most of the world has been familiar with all of this for some time (if not forever). For some perspective, consider that there are 750 million people in India living on $0.50/day. Meanwhile the radio is blasting an ad for Viagra... "for less than $3/pill!"

Don't pay for any cut of meat over $3.50/lb.. Vote with your wallet. Meat Rots. This is the only "representation" you have left! Just don't pay it.

The idiots behind the orchestrated price increase don't remember P X Q price times QUANTITY. Guess what dummies, Price time Quantity. One OR the other goes up and you can make money. If we don't pay more than $3.50/lb, your going to have to get your cost structure under control. How you do that is fight the cabal of hedge funds in court, or jail, now.

"Don't pay for any cut of meat over $3.50/lb.. Vote with your wallet. Meat Rots. This is the only "representation" you have left! Just don't pay it."

I'm thinking that the pursuit of "cheap food" is kind of what got us to this point...

You cannot get blood out of a turnip. Cattle industry was suffering losses on every head for quite some time: economic instability caused a lot of heartache in a very sensitive industry. Hold back purchases will result in them dumping, and while that might get you a better price today, I'll assure you that tomorrow it won't be possible because there will be a loss on margins from reduced scales of ecomomy. When there's lots of cow culling that means that the future is going to be rough, as it takes many years to build back cow herds.

If they wanted wage inflation, that would be simple: report the REAL inflation numbers (not the masterbated ones) and those millions with gov jobs and on SSA, etc. will get automatic COLAs to match, with the private sector to follow.

The fed does not want that. The last time it got that, the shit got out of hand and rates had to go to double digits. Back then, unions were in force and got COLAs too.

The fed wants asset price inflation to bail out the banksters and their derivatives. That's all.

We already have price inflation, hence the article. It's just being lied about for obvious reasons.

Sigh, thank you for being patient enough to be tactful. I was inclined to respond with an array of expletives (and in-person it would have been hard to contain the club). One day I expect that statements such as you're responding to will be more readily managed through darwinism...

11 He said, “This is what the king who will reign over you will claim as his rights: He will take your sons and make them serve with his chariots and horses, and they will run in front of his chariots.12 Some he will assign to be commanders of thousands and commanders of fifties, and others to plow his ground and reap his harvest, and still others to make weapons of war and equipment for his chariots.13 He will take your daughters to be perfumers and cooks and bakers.14 He will take the best of your fields and vineyards and olive groves and give them to his attendants.15 He will take a tenth of your grain and of your vintage and give it to his officials and attendants.16 Your male and female servants and the best of your cattle[c] and donkeys he will take for his own use.17 He will take a tenth of your flocks, and you yourselves will become his slaves.18 When that day comes, you will cry out for relief from the king you have chosen, but the Lord will not answer you in that day.”

You’re missing the context of that scripture. It is from 1 Samuel chapter 8, and the preceding verses give the context. The Israelites are asking for a King (other than God) so they can be “just like the nations around them”, and God is telling them that they have it better the way they are, without a human King. God then tell Samuel to let Israel know what bad things will happen if they stubbornly appoint a King over them.

Hereare the preceding verses proving the context:

When Samuel grew old, he appointed his sons as Israel’s leaders.[a]2 The name of his firstborn was Joel and the name of his second was Abijah, and they served at Beersheba.3 But his sons did not follow his ways. They turned aside after dishonest gain and accepted bribes and perverted justice. (Sound familiar?)

4 So all the elders of Israel gathered together and came to Samuel at Ramah.5 They said to him, “You are old, and your sons do not follow your ways; now appoint a king to lead[b] us, such as all the other nations have.”

6 But when they said, “Give us a king to lead us,” this displeased Samuel; so he prayed to the Lord.7 And the Lord told him: “Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king.8 As they have done from the day I brought them up out of Egypt until this day, forsaking me and serving other gods, so they are doing to you.9 Now listen to them; but warn them solemnly and let them know what the king who will reign over them will claim as his rights.”– 1 Samuel 1-9

BBQ'd free-range chicken legs and thighs tonight. The last time ('07? '08?) there were a lot of food inflation headlines, I didn't really see it in my area except for coffee and dairy. This time is different and I'm seening it almost across the board. I'm in a town that isn't attached to any other town. Not a suburb of anywhere, completely surrounded by ranches and farms. So I gotta assume I have it better than some other places.

Last few months, I noticed that the grocery store roasted chickens got much smaller - probably about 3 lbs from the previous 4-5 lbs. All of the stores around here now have these little tiny chickens - and of course the price is the same. What's next? Selling fertlized eggs?

After 2008 I noticed the 1/3 pound burger at the local Fuddrucker's was noticeably smaller. Several months later, smaller yet. Few months after that, smaller again. Wondered "How small can a 1/3 pound burger get?"

HOw about TAX Inflation, which M/Armstrong says really is deflationary BUT here in the state of Georgia we have a new Auto yearly Ad-valorem. We used to pay yearly on an assessed car value. NOW, if you live here or move to the state you pay 5 years up front on the state assessed value of your car.

So when you pay it, if for some reason you sell it in one year or total it, your 5 years of TAX went to the State. If I sell my car to a private buyer he pays the 5 years upfront even though I just paid it. So if you move to Georgia with 3 cars know that you will pay 15 years (aggregate) upfront. My mother just moved here and has a 2009 honda which she planned to sell but had to pay the 5 years up front. She is 83 and furious as the tag office guy just smirked as she forked over $1100 for five years. She told the guy that she might only live one more year.

Does Georgia give you a list of all the services and such you get with your tax dollar?

I wish the citizens would get enough guts and stop paying tax for a bit, maybe it will force a correction like the rigged markets and so on. I would like to see golden parachutes, expensive consultants, war toys and more just vanish. Then the NSA and CIA and others with unprintable budgets need to be dissolved as these organizations cause a lot more trouble than they prevent.

I feel bad for your mom, at 83 forking over $1,100 just because she has a set of wheels.

The industries held back raising prices as long as they could. Many companies weren't able to see the return on the "up cycle" and were sold.

We demanded cheap food, so now we get it. Iit was NEVER cheap, it's just that we refused to pay more for it so this is how it has ended up. And as is typical (from reading here) people blame everything else but themselves... But look on the bright side, now we get a first hand look at what US companies have been doing abroad for countless number of decades! And, as I warned a crowd when I was speaking out against enthanol production, this will ONLY lead to selling out one's lands (and land is the MOST precious thing).

If there's a "solution"/"strategy" it would be to support local farmers/ranchers who are based on more natural means of production: don't have to, pardon the pun, go "whole hog," just shift a bit here and there, as that will remove sales growth from the biggies. No corporation (Chinese or otherwise) can manage at these levels. I'm banking on the prices from corporate foods to rise up closer to that of local; and at some pint the big corporate structure's economies of scale will collapse. It'll be painful, but that's how it will play out (I see and go with the flow).

The Good is that in the future we won't have this problem to worry about.

The Bad is that we won't likely be around in another 100 years (I'm thinking that entropy is going to be chomping on a LOT of infrastructure, especially the military kind- maybe give the aliens a good light show).

"As these tanks, so too will prices on store shelves - 3 months-ish to take effect typically."

Of course, employment numbers will decline, in which case "affordability" will still be an issue.

Drive prices down far enough and margins get crushed, leaving only entities with change in the pockets to pick up the failing companies: think Smithfield & China. So, if you're in to that kind of thing...

This Thursday we pick up some new chicks. One or two will be roosters. We eat them. The others lay eggs and eat scraps we get for free. The chickens also provide fertilizer which we put in our compost. We get our pig from the local guy and we see how the pig was raised and what it was fed. Beef we get from another local guy. Grass fed. We buy in bulk so it works out to be fairly priced, we think. Have freezer of course.

"Grass fed. We buy in bulk so it works out to be fairly priced, we think."

I think it best to know who is producing your food (at a minimum WHERE) and how your food is being produced. It really is just like what the big purchasers have to do- they need to know these things in order to ensure their target quality and pricing. On the small scale there's a LOT of people that don't do real good at keeping track of costs, and while this might provide you with a bargin today it comes at the cost of them not being around tomorrow: and keep in mind that start-up inefficiencies WILL catch up; this is why the Big Boys manage to keep going- they're not constantly reinventing the wheel. Just as there are shitty big companies there's also shitty small-producers, watch out.

NOTE: be sure you're set up for management of that flock; it's not as easy as most think, and with animals you're tied down (which is why I advocate getting a nice place because you'll be speding a LOT of time there). I swear, my animals have a much better life than I do!

Yeah, if I were extremely powerful and wealthy I'd look to upset the status quo by messing with all the "little people!"

Maybe, just maybe, the question should be asked: what if there are forces at play that are beyond the total control of the omnipotent Fed?

Think!

Remove the Fed. Remove ALL govt. Where does the debt go? And, how are necessary resources going to be obtained when there's no longer the ability to support the "economies of scale" world that we've come to depend on? As an example, snail mail is only remotely possible because of JUNK mail- the junk mail dries up (well, because it's junk, no one really wants it) and all of a sudden that snail mail has to take on a much higher price-tag: of course, I highly doubt any of This is going to hold up for any meaningful period of time following the collapse.