Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

NFL Week 4 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of
APR's
Week 4 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+11)

The Chargers are one of those teams ESPN loves to love. But with
three relatively close wins against teams that are a combined 1-11,
they've got a long way to go to deserve a spot in the top
10.

Steelers (+10)

The Steelers just aren't as dominating as they were last year.
Ironically, they looked as competitive as they have all season in
Sunday's loss, but the fact remains they're 2-2 and still looking
for a win over a quality opponent.

Buccaneers (+10)

The Bucs are another team with three close wins against opponents
that are a combined 1-11. Unlike the Chargers, the wins have
been really close (by 4, 3, and 7 points). One of the
things I've learned from watching APR work: a lot of close wins
against bad teams is a very reliable sign of a team that will lose
consistently against even mid-level opponents.

On the bubble:

Giants (+7), Texans (+7), Browns (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Broncos (-13)

To the Broncos credit, they did play close games against three
pretty good teams. Unfortunately, they went 1-2 in those games, and
then got destroyed by the Packers.

Bengals (-11)

Maybe it's just the soft bigotry of low expectations, but to my
eye, the Bengals have been doing surprisingly well this year. And
with the Jaguars, Colts, and Seahawks coming up, they could actually
be 5-2 going into week 9.

On the bubble:

Cowboys (-8), Raiders (-7)Tony Romo would find it a lot
easier to shake that 'choker' label if he would stop doing it.