Wednesday, June 29, 2016

After the 2003 invasion President George Bush argued
that Iraq was part of his freedom agenda. He believed that overthrowing Saddam
Hussein was the first step in transforming the entire Middle East where
autocratic governments and terrorism were rampant. In a speech
at the Army War College in May 2004 for example, the president said that a
stable and democratic Iraq would discredit militants’ ideology and help reform
the region. Bush believed that only by going to the heart of the Muslim world
could that change be effected. The CIA however had completely different ideas.

In October 2004 the CIA wrote a memo, “Near Term Regional
Implications of Successful Iraqi Elections.” The report was assessing the up
coming elections that would be held in Iraq in 2005, but also addressed what
kind of affect they would have on the Middle East. The Agency thought that a
democratic Iraq would likely cause opposition from the Sunni regimes such as
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf States. They would probably crackdown on
their own Shiite populations, and solidify their hold on power. This was a
direct challenge to the president’s beliefs.

In the years since the 2003 invasion it would seem that the
CIA was right about the effect the Iraq invasion would have on the Middle East
and North Africa. Besides the brief and largely unfulfilled hope of the Arab
Spring not much has changed in the region. Some leaders have gone such as
Mubarak in Egypt and Khadaffi in Libya, while others remain like Assad and the
political systems are largely the same. As the Agency predicted the Saudis and
Gulf States were against the new Iraq and refused to send ambassadors for years
after the overthrow of Saddam, while supporting the insurgency. The Shiites
outside of Iraq are still largely a marginalized minority. Finally, given all
of the violence that Iraq has gone through and continues to experience plus its
political dysfunction tends to undermines the positive fact that it is one of
the few democracies in the region.

SOURCES

Bush, President George, “Bush’s Remarks on Iraq at the Army
War College,” Washington Post, 5/24/04

Gordon, Michael and Trainor, General Bernard, The Endgame, The Inside Story Of The
Struggle For Iraq, From George W. Bush To Barack Obama, New York, Pantheon,
2012

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Since March 2016 Iraq has seen a steady stream of terrorist
attacks by the Islamic State during its spring –Ramadan offensive. At the same
time, the government has been working hard to clear Anbar, while starting
separate operations in Ninewa and Salahaddin as well. Each one of those leads
to a steady stream of counter attacks increasing the level of violence overall
throughout the country.

The number of incidents in Iraq has been at a steady level
for the last four months. In January there were an average of 19.2 incidents
per day. That went down to 18.9 in February. Since then there has been an
average of 21.4 in March, 19.9 in April, 20.8 in May and 21.0 so far in June.

Avg. Incidents Per
Day In Iraq 2016

Jan 19.2

Feb 18.9

Mar 21.4

Apr 19.9

May 20.8

Jun 21.0

In the third week of June there were 148 incidents, leading
to 352 deaths and 497 wounded. The dead consisted of 3 Sahwa, 6 Peshmerga, 41
Hashd, 46 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 256 civilians, while there were 7
Sahwa, 45 Peshmerga, 56 ISF, 81 Hashd, and 308 civilians injured.

From June 15-21, 2016 the Fallujah campaign was still on
going. Towns around the city were still being freed, while the main thrust was
into Fallujah itself. Neighborhoods such as Nazzal and Shuhada
were cleared, and by June
16 the government complex was reached. That prompted Prime Minister Haidar
Abadi to declare the city free, while the military claimed 80% of it was under
control. The U.S. military however announced
that only one-third of Fallujah was liberated, while the rest was contested.
Either way the Islamic State’s defenses had been pierced, and the Iraqi forces
were moving from the center to the north to finish its mission, which would be
completed shortly.

At the same time the government forces were moving back
through the Ramadi area, specifically Zankura during the week, because of IS
re-infiltration. The town was declared freed as recently as June
15 and then a new operation started there on June
20, along with another to the north
of Ramadi. Efforts
were still underway in Amiriya Fallujah as well. This is a re-occurring problem
as Baghdad does not have the forces to hold all of the areas that it is moving
through leaving many security gaps that IS exploits to move back in. Finally,
forces were being built
up in Haditha for a new thrust into western Anbar heading towards Syria.

There were also continuingreports
of Hashd abuses in the Fallujah operation including torture and killing
displaced people. One Hashd fighter was arrested, but that appeared to be more
of a scapegoat than a crackdown on these excesses. In fact, the earlier report
by the Anbar governor about cases of deaths, disappearances, looting, and
torture was likely a move to protect Abadi from further criticism over the
conduct of the operation. Right from the start of the offensive stories began
to emerge of abuses going on at the hands of the Hashd. The governor’s announcement
was meant to show that Sunni authorities were investigating these cases. The
governor after all is aligned with the prime minister.

Reported casualties during these operations remained low. 1
Hashd, 4 Police, and 8 soldiers were killed, along with 1 police, 5 Hashd, and
17 soldiers injured. Government shelling of Fallujah killed another 18
civilians and wounded 28. Baghdad actively blocks releasing figures on its
losses so the real numbers are probably much higher.

After a three month low in incidents in Baghdad the previous
week, they shot back up the third week of June. There were 61, leading to 105
dead, and 262 wounded. IS continued attempts at mass casualty bombings in the
capital. Suicide bombers hit checkpoints in Yusifiya and Swaib, and another
hit the army base in Taji.
As usual the most incidents occurred in the south with 27, followed by 13 in
the north, 12 in the east, and 9 in the west. This has been the pattern of
attacks for months now as IS has picked up its operations in Baghdad, while
losing ground in the rest of the country.

Violence in Diyala remained at a low level with a daily
routine of IEDs, shootings, and kidnappings. On the other hand, the frequency
of these incidents has doubled from what they were before. As a sign of this
new status quo, the ISF claimed to have killed 5 suicide bombers in Abu
Saida, a known IS stronghold in the province.

In Ninewa the Iraqi forces were continuing preparatory moves
towards Mosul. June
18 an operation aimed at Qayara was announced, but this angered the
government as it was hoping for an element of surprise before it started. At
the same time, the second phase of the Ninewa operation was said to have ended
on June
20. That consisted of finally achieving a breakthrough in the Makhmour area
where several towns were taken after the initial thrust was a huge
disappointment. The Islamic State responded with a suicide
car bomb in the Haj Ali area in that district that killed 12 and wounded 6.
IS also launched three attacks in the Sinjar district, and executed seven in
Mosul and Qayara.

The government finally made its move on Shirqat in
Salahaddin. The Hashd talked about freeing that district in the northern
section of the province after Baiji was freed in October 2015, but then they
were called away to Syria by Iran to participate in the Russian led campaign
there. While one town was freed in this new
operation, it also appeared to have hick-ups as it started on June 18, and was then
re-launched on June
21. Shirqat is the last section of Salahaddin that IS still controls and is
an important stepping stone to the Mosul operation.

Like in Ramadi, IS has been able to move back into sections
of the Baiji and Tikrit districts. That caused a new security operation to be
started in the former with two towns taken. IS also hit a Hashd office in Dour
with a suicide car bomb south of Tikrit killing 5 and wounding 35.

The insurgents also began a new wave of devastating attacks
in the Tuz Kharmato district. On June 17 it seized
three villages
temporarily before being expelled. It also attacked Tuz Kharmato itself with a
suicide bomber. In total those attacks led to 32 Hashd and 5 Peshmerga being
killed, and 41 Hashd and 42 Peshmerga being wounded, along with two civilians.
The next day anothersuicidecarbomb
went off in Tuz Kharmato killing 40 and injuring 14. During those incidents the
police chief of Tuz was killed. In retaliation the prison in Amerli was
attacked and up to 52 prisoners were executed
in retaliation, an act blamed on the Badr organization.The Tuz district has been a hot spot for
ethno-political disputes between Kurds and Shiite Arabs and Turkmen, with Sunni
Arabs and Turkmen being caught in the middle. IS successfully exploited those
tensions with these attacks, which led to the murder of the prisoners, which
were Sunnis.

All of this fighting led to 182 dead and 152 wounded in
Salahaddin during the week, which was higher than the last seven monthly
totals.

Finally, after only two successful car bombs in the first
two weeks of June there were 9 the third month. Those hit Anbar, Ninewa, and
Salahaddin and left behind 94 fatalities and 141 injured. Another 36 were said
to be destroyed, but because of exaggerations by the security forces that
figure is unreliable.

About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com