March 23, 2010, 10:20 a.m. EDT
Existing-home sales fall for third straight month'Second surge' needed or U.S. could be vulnerable to double dip: economist

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Resales of U.S. homes and condominiums fell 0.6% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million, the lowest level in eight months, raising doubts about the durability of the housing recovery, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

Sales of existing homes have thus fallen three consecutive months, a reversal after having risen steadily through the fall in response to a federal subsidy for first-time home buyers. The tax credit has been restored and expanded to repeat buyers, but there has been no increase in sales yet.

Sales are up 7% compared with a year ago, the NAR's data showed.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting a larger decline in February, to about 4.93 million on an annualized basis.

"We need to have a second surge," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate lobbying group. However, the jury's still out, he said.

"Has everything in the gas tank been used up?" Yun asked. "Or is this just a pause before the next step up?"

A double-dip recession is a "possibility" if a second surge of buying doesn't occur, he said.

The original tax break was set to expire on Nov. 30, a deadline that likely pulled forward many sales that would have taken place this year. Just before it expired, Congress extended and expanded the subsidy.

To qualify, sales must be signed by April 30, and the sale must be closed by June 30. Sales of existing homes are reported when the sale closes, not when a contract's signed.

Inventories of sales on the market jumped during February, rising 312,000 to 3.59 million, the highest since September. Yun said the January-to-February increase in inventory was much larger than usual in February.

Inventories thus represented an 8.2-month supply at the current sales pace, the most since August.

The median sales price was $165,100, down 1.8% compared with a year earlier.

Sales were up in two of four regions. Sales rose at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 2.8% in the Midwest and 2.4% in the Northeast, while sales dropped by 4.7% in the West and by 1.1% in the South.

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Feder, chief executive officer of Radar Logic Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Carol Massar about the outlook for the U.S. housing market.
Blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures combined to produce the fewest sales of houses in the U.S. last month since record-keeping began in 1963, according to the Commerce Department.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.2 months’ worth, the highest since May, from 8.9 months. _________________大道至简 锦衣夜行

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for durable goods rose in February for a third month and new-home sales fell to the lowest on record, indicating manufacturing will stay at the forefront of the economic recovery.

The 0.5 percent increase in bookings for long-lasting goods followed a 3.9 percent surge the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders advanced more than anticipated. Sales of new homes fell 2.2 percent to an annual pace of 308,000 in February, the Commerce Department reported.

Companies from Boeing Co. to Owens-Illinois Inc. are benefiting from business spending on new equipment, inventory restocking and a revival of global demand. Job creation is needed for a broadening of the expansion that would include sustained gains in consumer spending and a mending of the real- estate market.

“Manufacturing is in the lead in pulling the economy along,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. “If we get some job gains, which we think we will soon, there will be a pickup in home sales. We can’t bake a sustainable recovery until we get job growth.”

Stocks declined on concern government deficits will hamper a global recovery after Fitch Ratings cut Portugal’s credit rating. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,167.72 at 4:21 p.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note dropped, pushing up the yield to 3.85 percent from 3.69 percent late yesterday.

Blizzards, Foreclosures

Blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures combined to produce the fewest sales of houses last month since record- keeping began in 1963. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner yesterday said it would take a “long time” to repair the housing market.

Sales were projected to climb to a 315,000 annual rate in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Demand dropped in the Northeast, Midwest and South regions, likely due in part to winter storms.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.2 months’ worth, the highest since May, from 8.9 months. The median price of a new home in the U.S. increased 5.2 percent to $220,500 in February from a year earlier. The advance was the largest since September 2007.

Housing, the industry that triggered the worst recession in seven decades as the subprime mortgage market collapsed, showed signs of recovering in 2009 as an $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit boosted sales ahead of its originally scheduled expiration in November.

Economy’s Bright Spot

While housing has faltered in the last three months, manufacturing remains a bright spot for the recovery, and factories added workers to payrolls in January and February.

Orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment increased 0.9 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in January. Economists anticipated a 0.6 percent rise, according to the median of 45 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Overall bookings were forecast to rise 0.6 percent.

Last month’s gain was paced by a surge in aircraft orders and increasing demand for machinery and metals.

Boeing, the world’s second-biggest commercial-plane maker, said it received 47 orders in February, up from 10 a month earlier. Chicago-based Boeing last week said it will boost production in coming years to meet stronger demand as airlines rebound from the recession-induced travel slump.

Factories boosted durable-goods inventories by 0.3 percent, the biggest gain since December 2008. In a sign demand is starting to outstrip available resources, unfilled orders advanced 0.4 percent, the most since July 2008.

Growing sales in the U.S. and abroad, and the need to replenish inventories are also helping companies such as Owens- Illinois, the largest U.S. maker of glass containers for food and beverages.

“We are starting to see the beginnings of a recovery, which we anticipate will extend through 2010 and 2011,” Chief Executive Officer Al Stroucken said in a presentation to investors on March 18. Stroucken said he expects “volumes to recover due to destocking having run its course.”

The withdrawal of federal tax credits for home buyers led to a steeper-than-expected plunge in May home sales in much of the U.S., as the housing market struggles to wean itself from government support.

Economists and real estate analysts expected home sales to slow after the tax credit, of as much as $8,000, expired at the end of April. But early data from real estate brokers indicate that the sales decline has been far more substantial than expected, with some markets showing declines of 25% to 30%.

The Hard Truth About Residential Real Estate

Anyone who believes that housing is on the rebound, and that now is the time to buy, should take a very hard look at the numbers I dredged up for my spring lecture and luncheon tour.

There are 140 million personal residences in the US. Today, there are 26 million homes either directly or indirectly for sale. According to a survey by Zillow.com, a real estate appraisal website, 20 million homeowners plan to sell on any improvement in prices. Add to that 4 million existing homes now on the market, 1 million new homes flogged by companies like Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Homes (PHM), and 1 million bank owned properties. Another 8 million mortgage owners are late on their payments and are on the verge of foreclosure, bringing the total overhang to 34 million homes.

Now, let's look at the buy side. There are 35 million who are underwater on their mortgages and aren't buying homes anytime soon, nor are the 35 million unemployed and underemployed. That knocks out 50% of the potential buyers. （应该deduct重叠部分，实际上 < 50%）Here is where it gets really interesting. There are 80 million baby boomers retiring at the rate of 10,000 a day. Assuming that they downsize over time from an average 2,500 sq ft. home to a 1,000 sq. ft. condo, and eventually to a 100 sq. ft. assisted living facility, the total shrinkage in demand is 4.3 billion sq.ft. per year, or 1.7 million average sized homes. That amounts to a shrinkage of aggregate demand for a city the size of San Francisco, every year.

You can argue that the following Gen-Xer's are going to take up the slack, but there are only 65 million of them with a much lower standard of living than their parents. Throw in the disappearance of state and federal first time buyer tax credit. You can count on a jump in long term capital gains taxes and state and local property taxes, further diminishing property's appeal. If you are looking for a final stick to break the camel's back, how about eliminating, or substantially reducing the home mortgage interest deduction? Add it all up, and there is a massive structural imbalance in residential real estate that will take at least a decade more to unwind.

We could be looking at a replay of the same 26 year period from 1929 to 1955 when prices remained flat, and we are only 3 years into it! A second down leg in the real estate market seems a no brainer to me, as is the secondary banking crisis that follows. Perhaps that's why hedge funds have been big sellers of the homebuilder's ETF (XHB).

What's a poor homeowner to do? Don't ask me. I sold everything in 2005 when my research threw up these numbers, and have been happily renting ever since. And, if the toilet blocks up, I just call the landlord._________________大道至简 锦衣夜行

The housing-market recession is not overWhy you shouldn't be overly optimistic about real estate right now

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- After years of hearing how home prices are plummeting and foreclosures are mounting, consumers want to feel hopeful about the housing market -- but maybe they're being too optimistic.

In a presentation to the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin, Texas, last week, Stan Humphries, Zillow.com's chief economist, pointed to four myths he said consumers are latching on to as they try to make sense of recent housing statistics.

The four myths:

1.

The housing recession is over. It's not, Humphries said. He estimates the bottom in home prices won't come until the third quarter, at least from a national perspective. Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae and also a speaker at the conference, agreed with that estimation.

2.

After markets hit bottom, prices will rebound to boom levels. Not going to happen, at least for a while, Humphries said. "Once we hit bottom, the bottom is going to be a long and flat affair across the markets," he said. "What we're going to see once we hit bottom is the second phase of the housing recession... that second phase is one of being flat."

3.

The worst of the foreclosure mess is behind us. More wishful thinking, according to Humphries. He estimates foreclosures will peak later this year, then remain elevated for a while. Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, said he doesn't envision foreclosure activity stabilizing until late 2011.

4.

The tax credits saved the housing market. With or without a tax credit, those who bought would have done so anyway, Humphries said. "The biggest impact [in home sales] we believe were low prices... low interest rates and the unsung factor here is the ramped up lending by the Federal Housing Administration."

"They went from what everyone thought was a lucrative asset to something worth a lot less than they owed on it," said Douglas Culkin, president of the National Apartment Association, in a phone interview. "We all want it to get better," he said.

Some want to finally sell their homes and move on with their plans. And homeowners are tired of thinking their houses are bleeding equity, losing value like a new car driving off the dealership lot.

As for prospective home buyers, even if consumers are feeling confident enough to take an extra trip to Wal-Mart these days, many are not going to jump in and spend on a large-ticket item like a house, said Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

"The reality of the situation in which we find ourselves today has sunk in with people," she said in a phone interview. "If a foreclosure hasn't been a part of their life, it has been a part of someone else's life... and they've seen the pain that inflicts on the family."

That perception isn't going to fade quickly.

It makes sense to be gloomy

Despite statistics showing some housing-market improvement, there's still good reason for pessimism.

The most recent Case-Shiller report showed prices rose 2.3% in March, compared with March 2009. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that in April the median existing home price rose 4% in the past year; existing home sales were up 7.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million.

While it's too soon to quantify the degree of the effect, the deadline for the home-buyer tax credit likely played into the numbers. Contracts needed to be in place by April 30 to qualify, and some economists say that incentive made buyers move earlier than they would have otherwise. Any bump from a temporary credit is soon over.

But there is another important reason to take improving numbers with a grain of salt: What people are calling "shadow" inventory.

That's primarily inventory that banks are holding, homes that have been foreclosed on but haven't yet hit the market. There are also severely delinquent homeowners who haven't entered foreclosure yet, but who will eventually get there. Right now, many of them are trying to work out some sort of mortgage modification.

Then there's this: The group of "sidelined sellers," or people who want to sell their homes but have waited for the storms to pass, Humphries said. About 7% of homeowners -- representing more than 5 million homes -- fall into this category, and are very likely to try and sell their home in the next year if there are signs of improvement, according to Zillow estimates.

Despite Humphries' theory that Americans are too optimistic on housing, there are plenty who still remain cautious. And if they're not looking at housing statistics with a skeptical eye, their personal economies are providing a reality check.

Most obviously, salaries for many Americans have been frozen or cut, and then there are the large numbers of people completely out of work, Culkin said.

According to a recent NFCC survey of more than 2,000 consumers, 49% said that if they were to attempt buying a home today they'd never be able to save enough money for a down payment. Coming up with a down payment has traditionally been problematic for first-time buyers, but it has spread to those who have owned before; many people are underwater in their mortgages, making it harder for them to get funds to move to another house.

Plus, today's buyers aren't only concerned about the ability to get a home but also their ability to keep it, said Duncan, of Fannie Mae. In the long run, that attitude is a good thing for the economy, he said.

"It's not just that we want a house," Duncan said, "but we will delay getting that house until we can afford to get it and afford to keep it."_________________大道至简 锦衣夜行

The number of homes that closed in May are down more than 5% compared to April.

Newly signed contracts in May dropped more than 10%, a sign of a real estate drought this summer.

Internet searches on real estate sites are down 20% compared to this time in 2009.

While total foreclosure activity is decreasing, the number of homes being repossessed by the banks hit a new record high.

The percentage of luxury home sellers who dropped their asking price at least once over the past 90 day period went from 33 percent in mid February to 38 percent at the end of May._________________大道至简 锦衣夜行

As expected, U.S. home builders sharply reduced construction as a federal tax break for home buyers expired, according to
estimates released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Housing starts（aka Permits for future construction）fell 10%
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate, suggesting a cruel summer.

Construction of new homes in May dropped 17.2% from April, significantly lower than forecast. Even the lowest home
mortgage rates in decades are not doing much to invite deals. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that
applications for loans to buy houses were down by a third compared with last year. Applications are back to the level
of the mid-1990s, when the country’s housing market was smaller.

One reason for the above is that more and more new weds are choosing to rent, thanks the American is still young. The bull
can still interpret this as a potential accumulation of power. But when will the potential be released?

Phase Shift - The Next Leg Down in House PricesHousing has supposedly "hit bottom." Perhaps it will drop abruptly in a phase shift to much lower valuations.

Way back in August 2006, near the top of the housing bubble, I suggested a two-part scenario for the housing bust: it would take eight more years to play out, and the declines would occur in sharp downlegs following a phase-shift model.

Phase Transitions, Symmetry and Post-Bubble Declines (August 2, 2006)

Here is the chart I presented at that time (08/2006) as a possible time model:

A few months later, literally at the top of the housing bubble in early 2007, I suggested that a mere 4% of homeowners defaulting could trigger a collapse of the entire U.S. housing market.

That is pretty much exactly what happened, for when the 4% who couldn't pay their subprime mortgages folded, they took down an exquisitely corrupt and vulnerable banking sector and the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy which had come to depend on it.

Can 4% of Homeowners Sink the Entire Market? (February 21, 2007)

As I noted in Phase Shifts, Stick/Slip and the Demise of Our "Socialist" Housing Policy (February 26, 2010), the "recovery" in housing visible in the chart below was entirely the result of a 99% "socialist" Central State intervention/prop job: the Federal Reserve bought $1.1 trillion of dodgy mortgages to mask the bad debt and keep interest rates low, and the Federal government flooded the housing market with fee money via subsidies and absurdly cheap, central State-guaranteed FHA loans.

Now that this massive Central State intervention has ended, housing sales and values are succumbing to gravity. home sales and prices fall:

The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of previously occupied homes fell last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million. That's down 9.6 percent from 5.4 million in January. The pace is far below the 6 million homes a year that economists say represents a healthy market.

Nearly 40 percent of the sales last month were either foreclosures or short sales, when the seller accepts less than they owe on the mortgage.

One-third of all sales were purchased in cash - twice the rate from a year ago. In troubled housing markets such as Las Vegas and Miami, cash deals represent about half of sales.

The median sales price fell 5.2 percent to $156,100, the lowest level since April 2002.

Sales of new homes tumbled 16.9% in February from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000, the lowest level since the series began in 1963.

The median price for a new home sold in February fell 13.9% from the prior month to $202,100, the lowest since December 2003.

Here we see the first phase shift decline and the "recovery," which is now rolling over.
I submit that the forces acting on price are mutually reinforcing to the point that price will drop rapidly in a second phase shift, with the target noted on the chart: a return to the price levels of 2000.

Once we get into the 2012-14 timeframe, then I expect a third phase shift will drop prices back to 1987 levels. As many observers have noted, bubbles don't retrace to historical averages--they over-correct to extremely low values.

What forces are working to push housing prices to new lows?

1. As I reported on Daily Finance, new mortgage broker compensation rules are about to wipe out independent, small mortgage originators and brokers. Mortgages will probably become harder to come by and more expensive as the "too big to fail" banks will consolidate their grasp on the mortgage market.

2. Interest rates will rise. Most financial analysts are supremely confident that the Fed can keep interest rates near-zero forever. I suspect their confidence is misplaced. As I discussed yesterday, the Fed has backed itself into a corner, where if it pursues QE3 then it will fire up inflation that will destroy profit margins and household purchasing power. If it ceases to buy U.S. Treasury debt, then interest rates will shoot up.

As interest rates rise, the amount of money home buyers can borrow drops. House prices follow this dynamic.

3. Income for the bottom 90% is stagnant. All the bogus "housing is now affordable again" charts floating around all base their rosy conclusions on median income, neatly avoiding the reality that the top 10% has garnered the majority of income gains. Factor out the top 10% and you find real incomes have actually declined for the lower 90%.

The same effect is true of the "wealth effect" powered by the speculative risk trade bubbles in stocks and commodities. These portfolio increases have only enriched the top 10% who own the vast majority of the financial wealth.

So yes, real estate favored by this top 10%--Manhattan, Westwood, San Francisco, etc.-- will hold its own as those benefiting from fat Federal contracts, Wall Street's renewed license to practice piracy, the bubble in lighter-than-air Web 2.0 stocks, etc. try to outbid each other, but for most housing, the support created by demand has just melted like dirty ice on a hot Spring day.

4. There are too many houses and not many buyers. The demographics are this: Baby Boomers are trying to sell to cash out or move, and the impoverished generations behind them cannot afford bubble-era prices. Just because prices have retreated to 2002 levels doesn't mean they're cheap--2002 was already a bubble, as you can see in the chart.

5. The Federal-supported "recovery" is in trouble, politically and financially. As long as the nation obeys the whip of the Fed and allows it to print $1 trillion to buy Treasury debt every year, then the travesty of a mockery of a sham can continue. But as I noted yesterday, this policy is destroying the dollar and the purchasing power of households. That game cannot run for long without political pushback. Saving the "too big to fail" banks and the Financial Plutocracy might be Item #1 on the Fed's list, but it ranks decidedly lower on voters' agendas.

6. Every investor who bought with cash because "this is the bottom" will 1) be underwater and anxious to sell and 2) be out of cash, having bet their capital playing "catch the falling knife" with real estate valuations.

Sorry, cash buyers: the knife is still falling._________________大道至简 锦衣夜行