Columns

Clegg looks doomed but the cavalry are coming

None of the three main parties has much to cheer about as they start the
political year. With just 18 months to go until the next general election,
the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats are not noticeably united,
confident or content with their leadership.

Labour is ahead in the polls, which should point to victory, but its lead has
softened to five points or less in our YouGov poll and Ed Miliband’s
personal ratings are dismal. From electoral history neither the leader’s
standing nor the opposition’s edge in the polls suggests he will win an
outright majority.

The Conservatives’ growing complacency that Miliband is unelectable receives a
knock today from Lord Ashcroft, the indefatigable Cameron-sceptic Tory. His
latest poll finds Labour with a comfortable 14-point lead in the top 32
closest Conservative-Labour marginals, and ahead on the economy, jobs, the
NHS and education. So, says Ashcroft, “Labour remains on course