•Wrong last name (Bush dynasty)
•Offshore private equity funds could be political headache
•Party has moved to the right

Rand Paul
Senator, KY

•Working hard, reaching out to diverse audience
•Most successful and prominent early campaign
•Strong support from libertarian and Tea Party wings
•National ID and fundraising network; benefits from father’s previous efforts

•Very popular within party, more so than in ’08
•Pro-Iraq War vote fading in importance
•Woman: chance to make history
•Can potentially scare away most/all strong opponents if she runs (unlike ’08)

•Age (69 by Election Day ’16)
•Ran unfocused, too-many-cooks ‘08 campaign; could make similar mistakes in ’16
•Keeping Bill in check — and on the porch
•Peaking too soon? Already dominating headlines day after day
•What policy rationale is there for a new Clinton presidency?

Second Tier

Elizabeth Warren
Senator, MA

•Adored by Dem activists
•Claims not to be running but is very visible
•Woman — same history-making potential as Clinton
•National ID and fundraising network

•Still seems unlikely to run against Clinton
•Electability? Democrats seem to care more about that than Republicans
•’12 campaign baggage