What are the geopolitical and infrastructure-related issues of the main gas routes–present and future–of blue gold transport? Here we consider Russia’s plan to expand Nord Stream; Italy and Algeria’s consideration of GALSI; the exploitation of the rich deposits in the Mediterranean; interests and assumptions that revolve around the Southern Corridor; Turkish Stream and the challenge of a passage to the northeast. The time is right for a focus on global gas networks: their current status, potential developments and the parties driving them.

The doubling of Nord Stream

Russia’s desire to circumvent Ukraine, the Baltic countries and Poland, along with the abandonment of the South Stream project, have prompted the Russian government to support the doubling of Nord Stream, the gas pipeline that since 2011 has transported Russian LNG to Germany via the Baltic Sea. The plan is to increase the transport capacity by adding two new pipelines to the existing two. The knowledge gained from the construction of Nord Stream is expected to facilitate the technical planning, but the proposal of the final route is still pending environmental impact assessments and the opinion of the parties concerned. The project is subject to national legislation in each of the countries whose waters and/or exclusive economic zones are crossed by the pipeline: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany. In a recent report, the European Parliament established that Nord Stream 2 is contrary to the Union’s interests.

The new gas pipeline is expected to extend for approximately 1,200 km on the seabed of the Baltic Sea to Greifswald in Germany. As with Nord Stream, both of the two lines will have a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. Composed of individual pipes measuring 12 meters each and with an internal diameter of 1,153 millimeters, Nord Stream 2 will require approximately 100,000 24-ton steel pipes, coated with cement mortar and laid on the seabed. The laying and welding of the pipelines will be carried out by specialized vessels aided by logistic support from ports on the Baltic coast. The company Nord Stream 2 AG is currently reviewing international proposals for the supply of pipes. The company responsible for designing, constructing and subsequently managing the gas pipeline is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland and is currently 100 percent controlled by a subsidiary of Gazprom (Russia). Nord Stream 2 AG also uses the support of Wintershall (Germany), Royal Dutch Shell (United Kingdom and the Netherlands), OMV Ag (Austria) and Engie SA (France). According to the project’s current schedule, the installation work should begin in 2018 and both Nord Stream 2 pipelines should become operational by the end of 2019.

The Levant Basin

The new hydrocarbon discoveries in the Levant Basin (Eastern Mediterranean) could radically change the geography of supplies to Europe. The large Leviathan natural gas field (450-600 bcm) off the coast of Israel, the supergiant reserves of Zohr (850 bcm), along the coasts of Egypt, and the large quantities of gas found in the Cypriot gas field of Aphrodite (200-300 bcm) could potentially meet the energy needs of Europe. However, there is uncertainty regarding the transport of these resources.

The first and most realistic option would be to export gas via the existing Egyptian liquefaction plants of Idku and Damietta. On August 31, 2016, Cairo and Nicosia signed an agreement for the construction of underwater pipelines that would transport natural gas from the economic zone of Cyprus to Egypt, to then be piped into the Egyptian liquefaction plants. Moreover, the two terminals are already prepared to liquefy and export Egyptian gas, in the event of surplus production with respect to domestic needs. Israel, Cyprus and Greece have already agreed on the construction of common infrastructure for transporting gas from the Aphrodite gas field along the coasts of Cyprus. The leaders of Egypt, Cyprus and Greece also signed a joint statement in Athens on December 9, 2015, with the aim of using hydrocarbons as a catalyst for peace “through the adherence of the countries in the region to the consolidated principles of international law.”

The second option involves strengthening interregional cooperation by extending the Arab Gas Pipeline, the pipeline connecting Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. The positive aspect of this option is that most of the infrastructure needed to transport gas already exists. However, its feasibility depends on certain highly volatile geopolitical factors, such as the relations between Israel and its Arabic neighbors, instability in the Sinai Peninsula region and the development of the conflict in Syria.

A third possibility is one that plans for the construction of an underwater pipeline in the Eastern Mediterranean, one that connects the island of Crete to Italy, passing via the Greek mainland. This solution is strongly supported by the E.U., which has co-funded a technical and commercial feasibility study of the project. The East Med gas pipeline, however, is expected to have very high costs, and the amount of gas derived from Cypriot and Israeli gas fields could be limited.

The final solution is to pass via Turkey, by constructing a gas pipeline that would transport Israeli natural gas from the Leviathan gas field to Europe, passing via the Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone. In the past, Turkish and Israeli companies signed agreements for the construction of the infrastructure, but various geopolitical considerations make the construction problematic. Cyprus, Egypt, Greece and Israel all harbor a strong distrust of Turkey, albeit for different reasons.

Between Africa and Europe: the GALSI

The GALSI project, which stands for Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna Italia (Algeria, Sardinia, Italy Gas Pipeline), is aimed at the construction of a gas pipeline to export natural gas from Algeria to continental Italy via Sardinia. Founded in 2003, the project was stopped in 2011 for several reasons: the protests of Sardinian environmental movements, the disagreement between partner companies over the cost of supplies, as well as geopolitical obstacles. The initial plan for the gas pipeline, the construction of which was due to start in 2014, called for connecting Koudiet Draouche (in easter Algeria) to Piombino, passing via Sardinia (Porto Botte and Olbia). The corporate consortium, established in 2003 with $10 million in capital, comprised Algeria’s Sonatrach (41.6 percent), Edison (20.8 percent), Enel (15.6 percent), SFIRS – Sardinia Region (11.6 percent) and Hera Group (10.4 percent). Since 2007, Snam Rete Gas has also been involved with the project, under an agreement that had entrusted it with the construction and management of the Sardinian segment. Despite being one of the founders, Germany’s Wintershall, a subsidiary of the chemical giant BASF, left the consortium in February 2008, selling its shares to the other shareholders. Sardinian environmentalists argued that the gas pipeline, by diagonally cutting the entire island and requiring a minimum width of 40 meters, would put hundreds of waterways at risk. As for the disagreement between the companies in the consortium, the Italian companies pressed for the cost of gas to be linked to the spot market, with a high fluctuation in prices, in order to exploit forecasts of a downturn in the market. Algeria, on the other hand, wanted a supply at a fixed and predetermined price. For now, the project remains suspended, despite being placed on the list of Projects of Common Interest and, following the exit of SFIRS from the consortium, the feasibility of building two regasification terminals in Sardinia: one in Porto Torres (province of Sassari) and one in Sarroch (province of Cagliari) is being considered.

The Southern Gas Corridor

The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) was founded because of the European Commission’s desire to promote infrastructure projects capable of ensuring the diversification of energy sources and the security of energy supplies, thanks to the transport of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. With a route almost 4,000 kilometers long, the crossing of seven countries and the involvement of a dozen major companies in the industry, the plan requires overall investments of approximately $45 billion. This includes the second phase of exploitation of the Shah Deniz gas field (Shah Deniz II), the construction of wells and the production of offshore gas in the Caspian Sea, as well as the expansion of the Sangachal manufacturing plant on the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan. There are three planned infrastructures: the South Caucasus Azerbaijan-Georgia gas pipeline (SCPX), the Trans-Anatolian pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey (TANAP) and the Trans-Adriatic pipeline, between Greece, Albania and Italy (TAP).

• The TAP will pass through Greece and Albania to land in Italy, in the province of Lecce, with a length of 870 km and a capacity of 10 bcm per year, expandable to up to 20 bcm. The current shareholders of theconsortium are Italy’s Snam, Britain’s BP and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, each with 20 percent, plus Belgium’s Fluxys (19 percent), Spain’s Enagás (16 percent) and Switzerland’s Axpo (5 percent).

• The TANAP gas pipeline, on the other hand, is the result of an agreement between Ankara and Baku and is expected to transport Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz II via Turkey, to then connect to the TAP. The construction of the gas pipeline commenced in March 2015. The first gas supplies to Turkey are planned for 2018 and after the completion of the TAP, Azerbaijani natural gas is expected to be delivered to Italy in the first months of 2020. The current shareholders of the TANAP are SOCAR (58 percent), Turkey’s BOTAS (30 percent) and BP (12 percent).

Shale gas in the U.S.

On November 15, 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey reported the discovery in West Texas of the largest deposit of shale hydrocarbons ever found in the United States. The Wolfcamp Shale, it was announced, held 16 thousand billion cubic feet of gas and 20 billion barrels of oil, or approximately three times the country’s annual need. While the area had already been previously explored without success; unconventional extraction methods, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) now made it possible. The discovery could mean that estimates may rise again, already making the U.S. the largest natural gas producer in the world by far, and one with the largest reserves.

In 2015, according to the latest data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the production of natural gas from oil shale reached 37.4 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, that is, 50 percent of the United States’ total production. According to forecasts, production will continue to grow steadily over the coming decades, reaching 80 billion cubic feet per day in 2040. The main sites, known as Marcellus and Utica, extend into the subsoil of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. The other two main deposits known, Haynesville and Barnett, are located in Texas and between Texas and Louisiana, respectively. The sites of Marcellus and Utica alone, according to forecasts, will, in 2040, provide 40 billion cubic meters of gas per day, equivalent to half of the total estimated production. In total, however, there are about thirty U.S. states that have shale gas reserves. The large-scale production of unconventional started in around 2000, with the the fracking of the Barnett Shale in Texas by Mitchell Energy which, since the 1980s, had been experimenting with various extraction techniques at the site. When the commercial viability of the gas field became apparent, other companies became interested in its development, with its productivity in 2005 reaching almost 500 billion cubic feet of gas per year. With the refinement of extraction technologies, exploitation began of other deposits, such as Fayetteville in Arkansas, Haynesville in Texas-Louisiana, Woodford in Oklahoma, and the maxi-gas fields of Marcellus and Utica. In 2015, U.S. shale gas production amounted to almost 40 billion cubic meters per day and, apart from the fluctuation owing to the market, appears to be set to grow.