According to the
USDA Dairy Outlook, "On January 1, 2004, there were 4,020,000 dairy
replacement heifers (500 pounds and over) on farms, down more than 2
percent from a year earlier. At 44.7 heifers per 100 milk cows, the
replacement herd was still large by historic standards-although
possibly not large in light of the elevated culling of recent years.
The largest decline from a year ago was for older heifers. Heifers
expected to enter the milking herd during the coming year were down
4 percent from a year earlier. At the start of 2003, a relatively
large share of the replacement herd was due to start milking that
year.

The absence of imported Canadian heifers and cows will add extra
tightness to replacement supplies. Live animals can no longer be
brought in from Canada because of BSE-related restrictions. In
recent years, imports of female dairy breeding stock from Canada
have been equivalent to 1 to 2 percent of the U.S. heifer herd. It
is uncertain when these restrictions will be relaxed. "