ELECTION 1999: Polls, Personal Attacks, Pressure

There is a real risk in placing too much trust in the polls,
however this week definite and consistent trends suggest New
Zealand is preparing to vote for a new government.

On
Thursday night a TV3 CM Research Poll showed the inability
of National and ACT to form a government, even with the
support of NZ First. The left could manage a majority with
the help of the Greens who are polling on the up.

This
poll puts Labour on 37 per cent, down four; National on 30
per cent, up two; ACT and the Alliance on nine; NZ First on
six and the greens on 2.8.

Assuming Fitzsimons and
United's Peter Dunne win their seats, as is looking likely,
the seats in the House would be allocated like this: Labour
47, National 38, ACT 12, Alliance 11, NZ First eight, Greens
four, United one.

This would leave National and ACT well
short of a majority with 50 seats and not even the support
of Winston Peters could give them a majority.

Labour and
the Alliance would be just short on 58 seats and would need
the four Green MPs for a two seat majority - again
effectively sidelining Winston Peters.

The poll was of
1000 voters with a margin or error of 3.3 per cent.

Friday
mornings Herald DigiPoll shows the Greens breaking the five
per cent for the first time this campaign and the left
continuing to lead.

The Greens are continuing a steep rise
in polls, hitting a high of 5.2 per cent. National is on
29.1 per cent, down from 31.7; Labour on 37.8, up from 33.4,
ACT on 10, down from 10.5, the Alliance on 8.6, up from 7.8
and NZFirst has dropped from 6.5 to under the five per cent
threshold on 4.8 per cent.

This poll contains big worries
for the government, and relief for the left who could now
govern without NZ First.

The poll is of 872 voters with a
margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

The DigiPoll is
interesting not only for the rise of the Greens but also of
the decline of NZ First. Winston has of course dismissed the
poll but the fact he has slipped below five per cent now
places huge pressure on his Tauranga seat.

If he was to
lose the seat to either National's Katherine O'Regan or
Labour's Margaret Wilson, NZ First may well not make it back
to parliament. A poll a week ago showed Peters trailing
O'Regan in the seat by one per cent and this race looks set
to be a genuine cliff-hanger. Both National and Labour will
sniff victory in the seat following the Suzanne Bruce and
Robyn McDonald fiascos.

It seems the fallout for NZ First
from these scandals has been reflected in the poll. What has
not yet been reflected in these polls is the impact of
National's assault on the Greens over the last few days.

The assault - targeting one candidate and their cannabis
policy - has been widely condemned as desperate and poorly
considered. It is possible that rather than harming the
Greens the publicity National has generated for them may
backfire into more support for the Greens. Next weeks polls
will be interesting.

It is clear that National's efforts
to discredit the Greens on this basis has failed in urban
New Zealand, but the impact on the conservative Coromandel
electorate - especially on how the local media deal with it
- still remains to be seen.

The solid campaigning of the
Alliance sees them solidly around the nine or 10 per cent
mark but while they may be drawing support off NZ First they
will be concerned at the rise of the Greens in the polls as
they are almost certainly tapping into the Alliance support
base.

The Alliance are looking solid and creative on the
campaign trail this week and are promising a series of
stunts over the last week of the campaign. The first stunt
was Jim Anderton unfurling a banner declaring National and
ACT as the high interest rate parties, following this weeks
interest rate rise by the Reserve bank.

Strapped into a
cherry picker on a windy Wellington day this stunt was as
clever and funny as it was brave. It will be interesting to
see what other action will follow.

Labour have played it
straight over the last week with the launch of their arts
policy being the single highlight. Bob Harvey has been
effectively silenced - or so it would seem - and the
campaign seems on track and sensible, though certainly not
spectacular.

Peters has been quiet, no doubt recovering
from the series of scandals which have hamstrung his party
and probably preparing for a big push in the final
week.

National however have been the biggest flop of the
week with their terribly executed attacks on the Greens.
They have timed their attention on the Coromandel poorly -
realising far too late that the seat could see them out of
the Treasury benches, and launching personal attacks that
the public have largely seen as purely political and highly
hypocritical.

Right from the start the Coromandel has been
the single most crucial seat in the campaign and while
Labour were slow to work it out, National seem inexcusably
and desperately late.

Next week will be characterised by
fortunes spent on last minute advertising to swing the
undecided voters who yet may hold the key to this election.
It will be a week of polls and closing addresses by the
various parties.

If National looked desperate and
transparent this week, wait till you see them next
week.

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