Light to moderate east to southeast winds will hold across the waters through much of the weekend as Tropical Storm Walaka continues northward and away from the region. Near the coasts, land and sea breezes developing each day will be the result for most areas, especially the western end of the island chain across leeward waters. A return of fresh trades is anticipated across all waters by Monday, which should hold through midweek. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below advisory levels through the forecast period.

Although the large and anomalous westerly swell associated with former Hurricane Walaka that brought large surf to the islands continues to ease, a series of sources from the northwest Pacific will keep the active phase in place for exposed north and west facing shores through the weekend and even much of next week. The first in the series filled in today, which was from former Typhoon Trami recurving in the western Pacific earlier this week. This source will hold into Saturday, then slowly fade through the second half of the weekend.

A large area of near gale-force west-northwest winds has emerged over the far northwest Pacific near the Kurils/south of the western Aleutians over the past couple of days in the wake of a cold front. The ASCAT pass earlier today reflected this and showed the bulk of the fetch setting up within the 310-320 directional band relative to the islands. Recent altimetry data showed seas up to 20 ft within this area, which is in line with the latest WAVEWATCH III and ECMWF-Wave guidance. This source should fill in late Monday, peak Tuesday, then slowly fade through midweek.

The current south-southwest swell will slowly diminish through the weekend. A reinforcing source from the southwest is expected to fill in early next week from recent activity from the southern Pacific.

Small surf will continue across east facing shores for the next couple of days, followed by low, long-period energy from distant East Pacific Hurricane Sergio next week.

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 1.71 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, dropping to a low of 0.17 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, then rising to a high of 2.57 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.29 foot at 2:00 PM early this afternoon.

The sunrise was at 06:17 am this morning and will set at 06:09 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 27 days old, and is in a Waning Crescent phase. The next New Moon will occur at 3:47 AM on Tuesday, October 9th.

Maui Weather

°/°

Wind: n/a at 0 mph

Sunrise: Sunset:

current observations as of 11am March 21st, 2019

Weather Outlook for Saturday, 6th October 2018

Summary

Light to moderate trade winds will continue across the eastern islands, with lighter winds expected across Oahu and Kauai through the weekend. This should allow for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes, particularly over the western islands and the more sheltered locations of Maui County and the Big Island. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with afternoon shower development also possible each day over interior and leeward sections of the islands. Light to moderate trade winds are expected to overspread the entire state late Sunday and continue through the end of next week, bringing a return of a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern.

Detailed Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1450 miles northeast of Honolulu, while a trough extends southward from Tropical Storm Walaka in the vicinity of 170W. As a result, the pressure gradient is rather light over the western islands with light trades giving way to land breezes in many areas, while light to locally moderate trade winds prevail over Maui County and the Big Island. Some localized land breezes are developing over the more sheltered sections of the eastern islands however, due to the east-southeasterly low level steering flow. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies, with the more extensive cloud cover over the eastern islands at this time. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, particularly from Oahu eastward to the Big Island, with a few isolated showers in leeward areas as well. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances through the week.

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the islands through the weekend, while the trough west of the state remains nearly stationary. As a result, light to moderate trades are expected to continue over the easterly islands, with light trades over Oahu and Kauai. Land and sea breezes will be common over the western islands through the weekend, as well as some of the more sheltered locations across Maui County and the Big Island. Showers should generally favor windward and mauka areas through the period, although scattered afternoon and evening showers will likely develop over interior and leeward sections of the all islands each day.

Low level ridging begins to build back westward over the islands late Sunday into early next week, and this should push the lingering trough westward and further away from the state. As a result, we should see a return of a more typical trade wind weather pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers, with a few showers reaching leeward areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Light to moderate trade winds should prevail across the entire state through the upcoming work week.

Central Valley (Kahului, Spreckelsville):

Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Leeward West (Lahaina, Ka`anapali):

Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 87. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 at the shore to around 69 at 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88 at the shore to 70 to 78 upcountry. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly sunny then becoming partly sunny in the late morning and early afternoon then becoming cloudy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.