All three of the Ensemble Control models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) were in good agreement last night ) 00Z runs) concerning the position of the Polar Vortex Monday morning. All three models placed the center of the Vortex over, or near the Great Lakes Monday morning. Notice the strong blocking (ridging) on either side of the low. This opens up the gate for the brutally bitter cold arctic airmass to surge south into the heart of the U.S. from the arctic.

What the models do not agree on so much is how cold will it get in our local neck of the woods. The Canadian GEM model came in the coldest last night. Since the models historically struggle with these arctic intrusions, and just for fun, I will use its temperature forecasts this time.

According to this model forecast (Canadian - GEM) the arctic cold front backdoor's into southeastern New Mexico just before, or around midnight tonight. Timing these arctic fronts is sometimes pretty difficult and this appears to be the case with this one. The front may arrive a little sooner or later than what this model is forecasting. Regardless, don't let your guard down. You will know when the front arrives.

A cold morning and day is in store for us Monday. Single digit temperatures in the Clovis and Portales areas, and teens across the rest of southeastern New Mexico is being forecast by this model at sunrise. Wind chill values based on this temperature forecast could be as low as -5F in the Clovis and Portales areas, and the single digits across southeastern New Mexico Monday morning.

Our highs on Monday may not make it to the freezing mark, or much above it if this model is correct.

By comparison last night's 00Z/5 PM MST runs of the U.S. GFS model and the European (ECMWF) models came in a little warmer than their previous runs, and warmer than the Canadian (GEM) model. My thinking is that the Canadian is closer to the truth...but I could be wrong.

Light snow is forecast across northeastern New Mexico. But no snow is currently in our local forecast across southeastern New Mexico. A warming trend will be underway by Wednesday. We may have a shot at some light precipitation by the end of next week.