Thursday, 26 January 2017

Welsh
independence becomes less attractive and less likely in the most probable post-Brexit
scenario.

I’ve posted on this one before. Under what currently seems to be the
likeliest post-Brexit scenario (the EU continuing as a group of 27, the UK
outside both the single market and the customs union), and with Wales a decade
or two behind Scotland in the independence stakes, Welsh independence will look
very unattractive to many. Changes to UK
legislation and regulation mean that a move directly from being part of the UK
to being a member state of the EU is no longer an option (as it currently could
be for Scotland, for example). Our
economy would have become even more integrated with that of the only single
market of which we would remain a part (i.e. whatever is left of the UK) and
our regulatory framework different from that of the EU. That means a post-independence negotiation to
re-join, and an inevitable period outside both unions.

Whilst the
debate about independence (like the debate about the EU) has never been for me
primarily an economic one, economic factors will inevitably be a factor in
gaining a majority for independence. It's not so much that there is a killer economic argument for independence; more that economic uncertainty will be the main argument against, and Brexit strengthens that argument. Whilst a logical analysis might suggest that there is no more certainty about our future as
part of the UK than there is as an independent nation, human assessments do not
work in that way. 'What is' always feels more certain than 'what could be'. Independence will
‘feel’ less secure for a Wales seeking independence under this scenario, with
no obvious exemplars to follow. Within
the EU, we would, hopefully, have at least two examples (Scotland and
Catalunya) of countries which have made the break and are thriving. Outside, we would have none. The task of persuading people to follow the
path to independence becomes many times more difficult – perhaps even
impossible.

In short,
whilst nothing is entirely impossible in political terms, I see Welsh
independence as being off the agenda for the foreseeable future if Brexit actually happens.

5 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I think you are absolutely right, Welsh independence is well of the agenda. But I'm not entirely sure your reasoning is correct. If 'What is' always feels more certain than 'what could be' why has the US just voted for Donald rather than Hillary?

Either way, with no voter appeal for independence is there still an appeal for the Welsh Parliament? I suspect not.

These are going to be difficult times for Wales. I suspect the desire to return to 'England&Wales' will grow stronger by the day.

There's no inconsistency between arguing that 'What is' always feels more certain than 'what could be' and the outcome of the US election. I think perhaps you've missed the context here. The point was not that people cannot be persuaded to vote for what seems less certain, it was rather that it's a harder task. Not impossible, just harder.

You clearly share Trump's perspective on mere 'facts' with your comment about ...the desire to return to 'England&Wales'....

Anon 19:52

As things stand today, even if the Labour leadership stopped supporting Brexit, the Bill published yesterday will pass through parliament. But, as the implications become clearer over the next two years, then if opponents of Brexit stop taking it as a given and start to say what they believe, and if public opinion moves as a result (two big ifs, I know), then I believe that it can be stopped.

You write "Within the EU, we would, hopefully, have at least two examples (Scotland and Catalunya) of countries which have made the break and are thriving."

Given the perilous state of the EU economy with up 50% youth unemployment in many states, the exact opposite is more likely true. Those states shackled to a fragmenting EU economy sinking ind debt and bankruptcy will go down with it.

You write: "Outside, we would have none [examples of states outside the EU doing well]."

How about the Isle of Man which is thriving, it has never been in the EU, even have it own currency, and is a fraction of the size of Wales in population and territory. Switzerland also comes to mind.

"Given the perilous state of the EU economy with up 50% youth unemployment in many states, the exact opposite is more likely true. Those states shackled to a fragmenting EU economy sinking ind debt and bankruptcy will go down with it." And your evidence to support the use of words such as 'perilous', 'fragmented', 'sinking in debt and bankruptcy' is what, exactly? I know that this is the wishful thinking scenario of the Brexiteers; the idea that the EU is a failing concept and is going to sink anyway. And I know that breaking it up is now a policy objective of the new US administration (although we should be asking ourselves why they want that). But wishful thinking isn't the same as reality. And the assumption that if only the countries concerned were free of the EU all would be rosy isn't based much on hard evidence either.

"How about the Isle of Man which is thriving, it has never been in the EU, even have it own currency, and is a fraction of the size of Wales in population and territory. Switzerland also comes to mind." I could also add Iceland and Norway as possible examples, although Norway has oil, Switzerland has centuries of banking and neutrality, both of which make the country attractive and successful. But my point is that I see it as easier to win a majority for independence based on comparisons with Ireland, Scotland, Catalunya, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries and so on than based on a comparison with Iceland or the Isle of Man. It's an opinion, and you have every right to disagree.