Monday, 14 May 2012

the dealer smiles all the time

I don't pay enough attention to the detail of the FTSE, DAC, NYSE and -er- the CAC, but it's sometimes helpful to keep an eye on the big numbers.

A few days ago the FTSE was around 5800 and slightly drifting north. Tonight it is around 5400 in my rounded out way of looking at things.

Of course, it's the €uro that's causing the turbulence and Greece as the catalyst for whatever happens next. A new French prez visiting Angela Merkel whilst George Osborne wrings his hands and points to the continent won't hack it.

They all know its more more pernicious than the specifics of the Greek situation. The banks continue to roll on the turn from everyone else's losses. They won't catch the falling knife, instead they'll cynically think about where to dump the problem.

In departmental budgeting there's that saying that deficit migrates to the least well managed area. Like playing poker and knowing who is the sucker. And if you don't know then it's probably time to get out.

The trouble with the €uro is that the politicians know that poker thing too. But it's their deck as long as they stay close to the bankers, so they can push the casualty beyond Greece, Spain and maybe Italy and back onto all of us.