Japan in 2011

Foreign Affairs

Japan began 2011 with troubled relations with its primary partners. Its long-standing security alliance with the U.S. was under stress as the two countries struggled to implement a U.S. military base-realignment plan on Okinawa that the DPJ’s first prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, had tried but failed to renegotiate. Protests continued in Okinawa, and local governments there made it extremely difficult to implement the plan. Japan’s relations with China, meanwhile, were suffering from the aftermath of a September 2010 incident involving a Chinese fishing trawler that had collided with Japanese coast guard vessels patrolling disputed waters near the Senkaku (Chinese: Daiyu) Islands. Japanese authorities had detained the captain of the fishing boat in Okinawa, prompting Chinese officials to take into custody four Japanese construction workers in China and to look the other way when Japanese firms found that they could not buy vital rare-earth minerals from China (which had near-monopoly control of those commodities). Within the following two months, however, the workers had been returned to Japan, and the mineral shipments had resumed.

The March 11 disaster helped Japan improve its relationships with both the U.S. and China. Among the first to respond to the scenes of devastation in the Japanese cities and towns along the Tohoku coast hit by the tsunami were vessels of the U.S. Navy sent from bases in Japan. At the peak of the relief efforts, some 20,000 U.S. personnel, 20 ships, and 140 aircraft were in the disaster area as part of Operation Tomodachi (“Friend”). The media coverage of the disaster recovery, showing U.S. troops assisting Tohoku residents, helped Japanese see the benefits offered by the military alliance.

In the aftermath of the successful cooperation between U.S. forces and the Japanese Self-Defense Force in the area, the two governments reemphasized their commitment to the alliance. The Okinawa base-realignment plan remained in limbo, but questions about it were raised by both sides. Okinawa’s governor, Hirokazu Nakaima, visited Washington, D.C., in September to promote changes to the plan; several influential U.S. senators called for the U.S. to reexamine the details after they visited the island in April and concluded that the existing approach was “unrealistic, unworkable, and unaffordable.” The two sides announced in May that they would miss a 2014 deadline for carrying out the plan.

Japan’s relations with China also improved after March 11, as the disaster provided the Chinese with a chance to reciprocate the help Japan had given China following earthquakes in that country—notably the 2008 Sichuan quake. The Japanese government greatly appreciated the visit Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and South Korean Pres. Lee Myung-Bak made in May to a refugee centre near the stricken Fukushima plant prior to a planned trilateral summit in Tokyo. The photo opportunity of the two leaders sampling local strawberries and vegetables was set up by the Japanese side in an effort to reassure residents of China and South Korea that Japan was safe to visit and that its products were safe to eat. That scene, however, also pointed to lingering distrust among Japan’s neighbours. After it became known that the plant had released radioactive materials into the environment, the most vociferously expressed concerns came from residents and officials of China and South Korea. Both countries promptly imposed restrictions on imports of food from the Fukushima area.

Despite that distrust, Japan moved forward with a variety of initiatives aimed at lowering trade barriers and deepening economic ties with its neighbours. At the trilateral summit in May, Wen, Lee, and Kan reiterated their support for a proposed three-way free-trade area. Rather than drawing out the initial period for “studying” the idea, they agreed to draft the initial study quickly; it was completed in mid-December. In late December, Prime Minister Noda and Chinese officials meeting together in Beijing agreed to begin direct currency trading between the two countries.

In early November, Noda took his most dramatic step to date when he announced prior to the Honolulu APEC summit that Japan would begin discussions with TPP countries about Japan’s participation in negotiations on the TPP agreement. The government had been giving mixed signals about whether Japan was ready to join the nine countries (Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the U.S., and Vietnam) attempting to draft the agreement—a comprehensive economic pact aimed at eliminating tariffs within 10 years of its launch. Over the summer Prime Minister Kan had postponed making a decision on Japan’s participation after he faced strong objections from DPJ members worried about the effects of such an agreement on Japan’s farmers and rural areas.

After the U.S. Congress approved a free-trade agreement between South Korea and the U.S. in October, however, Noda signaled that he did not want to see Japan left out of the move toward deeper economic integration. Noda encountered significant opposition within his own party—with some members threatening to leave the DPJ—but he was able to avoid a rift by carefully qualifying his statement to indicate that Japan was agreeing only to negotiate, not to accept any specific terms. After U.S. Pres. Barack Obama announced plans to move forward quickly, with the aim of completing the TPP agreement by November 2012, however, it was not clear that Japan would be able to keep up. If it did agree to such a pact, the move would represent a dramatic shift from its long-standing protection of its agricultural markets and a gamble that the agreement would help Japan pull out of its prolonged period of slow economic growth.

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