000
ACUS11 KWNS 030741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030741
TXZ000-031145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030741Z - 031145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY NORTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
PERHAPS STRONGER LIFT BEING AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS WITH A FEW CORES
CAPABLE OF MAINLY SMALL HAIL EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SAN
ANTONIO AREA.
ALTHOUGH HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ACROSS THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AS IT
SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. MOST HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG...BUT
HAIL IN THE 0.5" TO 1.0" DIAMETER RANGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-ACTING SHEAR ON A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS.
..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 12/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29640118 30329841 30449537 30029444 29779425 29349411
28969433 28679548 28079641 27819695 28029796 28099900
28050004 28090092 28110148 28430162 28760180 29010166
29640118