Bubble Watch: Many Downgrades, Including ‘Fringe’ and ‘Outsourced’

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When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Only one upgrade for the week, but several shows renewal prospects dimmed.

Upgraded:

American Dad: now already renewed.

Downgraded:

Mr. Sunshine: now on the bubbleBetter with You: now likely to be canceledBrothers & Sisters: now likely to be canceledCriminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: now on the bubbleMad Love: now likely to be CanceledFringe: now likely to be canceledOutsourced: now likely to be canceled

Both Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior and Mr. Sunshine have tumbled vast distances since their premieres and their stay on the bubble could be short. At least Mr. Sunshine can play the “I had to deal with American Idol” bingo square, and there will be another opportunity to play it again in the coming week. Whoops, Mr. Sunshine catches a break and airs against Traffic Light this week. Suspect Behavior catches a bit of a break this coming Wednesday when Law & Order: SVU will be a repeat.

Given the current turmoil with Two and a Half Men it is perhaps too soon to shuffle Mad Love into likely to be canceled territory, but its two week trend is not a good one (yes, I know if it was on NBC with those numbers it would be certain to be renewed, alas, it’s on CBS).

After six Friday episodes Fringe looks more likely to be canceled than renewed at the end of the season.

Because of how Outsourced performed when it was on at 9:30p (better than Parks & Recreation is currently performing), it was difficult to downgrade it to “likely to be canceled” but its ratings at 10:30pm say that’s the case. It doesn’t look like NBC has done its comedy night right, but it could’ve been worse.

Some have suggested the CW itself is on the bubble, but we’ve heard such talk for the past four seasons. Assuming the CW survives yet again, all of its shows besides The Vampire Diaries and Supernaturalcan’t be on the bubble! Bill makes the good point that there are limits to the number of new shows the CW can afford to launch next season. Currently the CW needs at least two new shows next season.

Particularly if the rumors are true that those involved with One Tree Hill don’t want to do another season, CW may have more holes than it can afford to fill. Some have suggested that CW could cancel Hellcats (and Nikita) and replace it with inexpensive scripted shows. But the CW is reported to be a money loser as a network that makes it up for its parents with international licensing, DVDs, etc. Those ancillary revenue streams don’t exist (or aren’t nearly as lucrative) for unscripted shows.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.