Peak Theories' Short-Term Views On Gold

Abigail Doolittle, of Peak Theories Research, shares her latest updated short-term outlook on the price of gold. Doolittle's conclusion: "Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal. In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place." Of course, for those who day trade gold, the broken upward channel we pointed out some time ago was the indicator to watch in taking profits. For everyone else, who believes that the past two weeks' weakness is merely a blip in an otherwise relentless march by the world's central banks to reflate their problems through currency printing and devaluation, the long-term outlook is certainly far more important.

In summary:

With gold below $1,353 per ounce, it appears to have begun a nascent trend of lower highs and lower lows or the topping process that I’ve been writing about.

This suggests that gold may continue to move down and especially with gold slightly below its 100 DMA of about $1,347 per ounce.

In turn, this may suggest that gold will fulfill its small Bear Flag with a target of about $1,330 per ounce and even the Diamond Top pattern with a target of about $1,284 per ounce.

If gold hits that target of $1,284 per ounce, there is a good chance gold will retrace the entire ascent leading to the Diamond Top or decline to about $1,155 per ounce.

Such a decline would be consistent with a pull down to gold’s long-term trendline which, ironically, will strengthen this long-term uptrend.

Caution is advised around gold in the near- to intermediate-term due to this potential near- to intermediate-term reversal.

In the long-term, however, gold’s primary and bullish uptrend appears to remain very much in place.

Turd: Love your posts, generally, but on this one, I don't think "the broad" is that far off from where you are. She is talking only short term and intermediate term, at most. And she is talking about a $1258 bottom on this pullback, with a slight chance of dipping to $1150 or so. None of that is a surprise. It is a standard sort of pullback necessary to consolidate the long term run up to levels you foresee. Gold will reach your levels, and possibly within your timeframe, but this pullback will take gold closer to $1250 in the short term. When it hits $1250, it is time to buy.

NOW, to my single, fundamental question: do we buy ONLY physical PMs or is it safe to dip into paper PMs (e.g., AGQ, UGL, GLD, SLV) when we buy this dip?

when shit starts hitting the fan, and i mean seriously hitting the fan, sell all paper and buy into closed funds of PMs or PMs proper.

GLD and SLV have custodians for their stuff, HSBC and JPM respectively. And most of their stuff is lent to them either ways. I mean, most of the GLD gold belongs to the Bank of England, who in turn get equivalent market value in terms of pounds or euros or $$$ for loaning their physical to GLD, who in turn gives it to HSBC to store. lol.

I like your blog, TF. Only thing is, when I see "TF" I think of well, Ticker Forum...

In any event, if the U.S. Mint halts production of gold or silver eagles, buffaloes, AS THEY HAVE IN THE RECENT PAST, then whether or not prices have lowered won't make any difference if you're not able to get these coins.

Obviously you can buy Krugerrands or Philharmonics etc instead, however you won't get the tax benefits of Eagles.

Same as anything else out there, look at any of the totaly manipulated markets and try to find the 'safe haven', good luck. Its all manipulated BS and who knows when the wheels will come flying off but I'll take a safe full of silver and gold over anything else right now.

OT, I had sold a PUT (it appears in my Orders tab) but it has not been updated in my transaction history -- it has never been delayed this way in the past. The PUT price has not increased since my trade -- I am wondering if my brokerage firm is front running me to the extent of buying my PUT with hope of flipping it higher and so has kept my transaction pending and hence not updated my transaction history.

Would appreciate any thoughts on this situation from the trading community..

I'm no expert, but this doesn't sound right to me. Unless you sold with limit/stop conditions, or you were trying to sell enormous volume, your order should have been executed nearly instantly. The market maker in those options (who is not necessarily your broker) has many ways to screw you, but holding up your order more than a few seconds isn't likely.

"I would only smoke it in the late evening. Oh, occasionally the early evening, but usually the late evening - or the mid-evening. Just the early evening, midevening and late evening. Occasionally, early afternoon, early mid-afternoon, or perhaps the late-midafternoon. Oh, sometimes the early-mid-late-early morning. . . But never at dusk! Never at dusk, I would never do that"

i thought you guys were serious...thought perhaps, some former "star" talking about monetary issues...who knows what the next tactic will be...i mean really when is about gold nothing would suprise me - anything could happen

so I went to watch the video (of course did watch all the talk of the "expert") - then i too chuckled at the American idol comment...she could make a good potential Idol candidate assuming the show is still on by the time she is broke and looking for smt else...americans getting bored to voting their own pop star

Oh they know about divisibility real well. When the smoke clears and the dividing has been done, there you are sitting on the curb with nothing while she is taking a bubble bath in what used to be your house.

Abigail Doolittle started Peak Theories Research in May 2009. She has 12 years of experience in the financial services industry. Abigail decided to devote herself fully to PTR and her passion for technical analysis by leaving Hugh Johnson Advisors at the end of 2010. While at HJA, Abigail was the firm's Director of Business Development while also having been a Portfolio Manager at the firm. Prior to HJA, she spent 6 years at the former First Albany Capital as an institutional sales person and a research product manager. She started her career on Wall Street with Morgan Stanley’s real estate investment banking department. Abigail graduated from Colgate University with a degree in philosophy

But the Fed is on a one way trip. Big physical support for gold around $1317.

More debt crises unavoidable. Hu Jintao is just here to secure his collateral.

"After the drop in gold and silver today, King World News contacts out of London have confirmed massive physical purchase orders on gold between $1,308 and $1,317. One source who wishes to remain anonymous stated, “It will take a massive amount of physical gold to take out those levels. You can have shenanigans in the paper market, but there is an underlying physical market here in London and that is where the floor appears to be for now.” Oct. 10, 2010 H.Hendry, KWN

One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Gold as a safe investment? The problem today is that the price of Gold is not derived by it's physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.

The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.

The price of everything including Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.

Because they understand that physical gold is the best way to preserve wealth when currency is debased. Silver is second to gold. This is something you fail to understand. You are looking at this market as a speculator and are therefore soon to be fleeced. About the time you figure out the difference between wealth and money- it will be too late buy any. Good luck!

Have you read anything about monetary theory? Do you understand that your fiat paper will go bust in your lifetime (unless you are on your deathbed as I write). How about price suppression with paper gold and silver? If you don't understand then read before you post. We are speaking of wealth and value. Those things are very different from currency. I will use currency for everyday needs but my wealth will always be in PMs. Good luck with your plan.

Buy buy buy. Keep up the pressure. Short term blah blah blah. Yeh since the banks can continue their naked short selling acivities, courtesy of the deep captured CFTC, the banks can continue on in their fraud. I am sick of this shit.........But , just keep buying and believe me, this fraud will not last.

HPD--This appears to be a pretty normal sort of correction to consolidate the long-term bull. Don't understand all the anger and nastiness and conspiracy theories. One could keep buying--could have, in fact, at $1425--but it is advisable to buy on the pullback--at, say, $1250 or less--and make alot more money in the long term bull. Small timers aren't going to put any pressure to move the market up anyway. The market will correct, then drive upward, for a whole host of other reasons.

Until the power of the COMEX is destroyed the physical market will suffer not matter what the supply /demand equation tells us. Since the CFTC seems not to be able to deconstuct this facade, only time will tell. I figure it will happen one way or the other soon enough. All it takes is one big buyer demanding physical delivery and when this happens the dominoes fall, one by one, rapidly.

I have heard this for a long time from him. He touts farmland, but I don't see how one can practically buy farmland and make any use of it. Are we supposed to buy it then farm it? Rent it out to a farmer? Try to get the government to pay us not to farm it? Buy low and sell high? Farmland is a great thing, but my experience with farmland is that he who buys 300 acres but lives in NYC has a hard time farming his land.

Here in Iowa, lease for $200-$300 acre, take your hands off. Share crop, 50-50 split the ins and outs. My recently deceased uncle Carl bought at $100/acre, left it to only daughter at $4000 + an acre. Always had money and no debt. Farmers ain't so dumb.

why limit yourself to conventional farming techniques; I just bought 80 acres and this spring I'll be planting orchard tress (fruit and nut) that will be the basis of a permaculture food forest - google it - you have to get past the trader-ROI mindset, the goal with farmland in this economic environment is owning a sustainable means of food production for yourself and your family, yes stock up on PM's and guns if you want, but to round out your preps you need land, at least 1 acre

Understood, but where is good farmland affordable? I cannot find good farmland under $3000 per acre, and it is rare that a decent piece of land comes up for sale that is less than 40 acres. Maybe I just have not found the right place. Any suggestions?

On seeking alpha you say you only buy physical. You dont margin. You cannot be up fourfold because you paid $14/oz. It's $26 today. You dont understand coins obviously because although investable coins contain gold or silver, their pricing is skewed from the spot PM by a variety of factors. I sold MS65 Morgan Silver dollars on Dec 7 at $125 each. You did not and the price is now lower. You don't understand PM ETFs either. ACG is the 2X Silver bull ETF. I made 300% in 3 months. You did not.

There is a difference between initial investment price and cost average. No matter how you look at it, I've made a lot of money, and I won't be missing the train because I decided to take "profits".

You were whining about how you only made 100% on your "silver coins", and now you backtrack and say it was because you were speculating in numismatic coins. Did it ever strike you that THAT is your problem. What fucking moron seriously expects to make money in numismatics? Serious investors buy bullion, not something that is subject to the whims of individual buyers.

Only because I find it hard to believe that you were SOOOooo diversely invested in silver AND managed to sell on December 7th. How omniscient! Looks more like cherry picking a top off a chart when you're making shit up.

I said coins are a crappy investment and they are absolutly horibble. 20% bid offer spreads. Illiquidity abounds, If you understood coins you would know that MS65 Morgan silver dollars are a small calculated step past silver eagles having a small numismatic interest yet still being as intensely liquid and fungible as the coin market allows. Factoring the spreads and illiquidity it will take YEARS to get a double in the best of markets AND there is no leverage with which to gin up the returns.

You've also said your gains are 300% in another thread. You've got fictitious numbers everywhere. And this past weekend you said that you thought silver was a better growth investment since December 2008. Get your lies straight.

You specifically said that being in anything except gold will be big trouble. Those are your words in August, when silver was already beginning to bust over $20. You made it clear that you were not invested in silver, or, if you were, it wasn't anything significant.

Once silver became all the rage, your posts at SeekingAlpha went from 8/day to once every few weeks. And you began a new crusade over here at ZeroHedge, claiming to have a 95/5 weighted portfolio towards silver and that you've added to it from every paycheck since Dec 2008.

*LOL*

If rice goes parabolic, are you going to find a rice forum and tell everyone that you're 95% invested in rice?

I see, so it never occurred to you that I might have bought more since then, an action which raised by dollar cost average? It also never occurred to you that I like both gold and silver, and that when I was talking about gold, I include silver under the same wing. Find me one post where I said I didn't own silver over there. ONE!

Honestly, boy, you really need to examine your life. You seem to have some sort of a homosexual crush on me, because I knock you around and make you look like an idiot. Chirst, you now seem to spend your hours trolling the internet, searching for posts by tmosley. It's obsessive. Guess what? I don't swing that way. As a homosexual masochist, you ought to just saunter down to the nearest gay bar that features a S&M element, and tell them to give you the works. You can get your jollies while leaving the adults to talk about adult matters.

Every time you fall on your face (which is constantly), you revert to very graphic and visceral homosexual rhetoric. In fact, there is no one on this forum that talks more about homosexuality than you. That, itself, stands on its own. Then, when considering the disgusting depths that you go....

You are a pussy. You are that annoying shitfly that just buzzes around waiting for a big dog to show up so you can jump into the fight.

When MuscleMan or GoldshitFinger aren't around your tone is ever so much more peaceful. I bet you were that kid that got kicked down the stairs every morning in junior high weren't you? The closest you ever came to a piece of ass was looking up at one while you picked your books up off the floor at the bottom of the stairs wasn't it? The kid who used to be tardy all the time because you were hiding in a shit stall until second bell so you wouldn't get your face smeared down a row of lockers every day. Probably showered in your underwear too.

The internet was a great invention for you because now your pussy ass could be tough all of a sudden couldn't it? Problem is Pussy, that your chickenshit personality shines through your internet tough guy persona. Guys like you are easy to peg. It's always the ones who got kicked around who are the "Champions for the Underdog".

Calling you a douche is too good for you. At least a douche get inside a snatch once in it's life. You are the box that Douche is packaged in. Just like you used to have to drive your dumb jock "buddy" around while he fucked hot chicks in the back seat and you tried to watch in the mirror. All so you had a half ass bodyguard and didn't get pounded on so much.

When MuscleMan or GoldshitFinger aren't around your tone is ever so much more peaceful...

First of all, I've never seen goldfinger until today. When I think of goldfinger, I think Mark McGoldrick or James Bond.

Secondly, of all the posts that I've made since last summer, there are only a few threads where I join "More Critical thinking..." in my anti-Right bashing, and that's only because his views are identical to mine. On top of that, I find his sly, dry humor entertaining. I've been an anti-Right antagonist on this forum from day one. In fact, it would be difficult to find another poster who is more vocal about their anti-Right positions than me. My entire persona on ZH is anti-Right. I've been dodging bullets around here from the beginning, so don't give me some shit that I don't jump in the fray without him around. That's ludicrous.

Third, the rest of your post is just meaningless rhetoric from another generation about high school bullies, high school stair-cases, locker-room fights and "jocks" - you sound like a high school television character stuck in a time-warp between Happy Day's and Grease. What is your misplaced obsession with high school? The fact that you could conjure such a fictitious scenario with such detail speaks more about your high school experience than mine. And the buzzing shitfly stuff? Only someone who shovels manure would speak like that. Fucking gross.

I'm just here for humor and entertainment, and there's less of it every day. Too many self-congratulatory liars, urban warfare extremists and/or confederate flag waving hillbillies. Tmosely seems to have cornered the "liar" category all by himself, so I'll put you in the confederate-flag waving hillbilly box. Don't worry though, I'll put the box next to an 8-track cassette player with the Happy Day's theme on continuous loop. You'll feel at home.

Let me clarify. Nobody could accuse you of being a member of a Tea Party group. But when all on your lonesome, you tend to make generic Camaro, Beck, Palin and mullet jokes; some of them are even pretty funny.

Perhaps it is more lately, so excuse me if I speak in generalities, but you get PERSONAL when you can pile on, hence the chickenshit. You can call it Happy Days all you want, but it's the way shit works. People who only ATTACK in groups are pussies. I stick to my guns on that. It shows, RNR.

Yes, I have kicked a nerd or two down stairs. Yes, I have shoveled a ton of shit in my time. I guess I'm neither proud or ashamed of either. I have no relationship with the confederate flag, and it's flatter than shit where I live. You may call me a hillbilly if you want, CoonAss would be more appropriate.

Now, since you have just been kicked down another "flight of stairs", don't feel obligated to respond. Instead, why don't you go dry dock one thinking about your matronly old english teacher and use the spoo to flatten your cowlick.

You've honestly never heard of a coonass? You're way more metro than I would have guessed. Coonass isn't hillbilly, dipshit. Hillbilly is backwards uneducated mountain folk. Coonass is backwards uneducated flatlander woodspeople.

How cool for you. I just opened up a whole new sub culture of people for you to look down your nose at.

Yup, Coonass refers to a group of French Canadians which migrated to the area around New Orleans. They are more popularly known as cajuns. I grew up on the border of this area, in southeast Texas. I always loved coonass culture. Great food. Great music.

RnR steeps in his own ignorance, like the Republicans he hates so much.

Am I wrong to think that the usefulness of all this sort of divination - particularly with respect to PMs - goes out the window to some extent when we're talking about such a heavily manipulated economy?

My guess is that "members" of the gold and silver "community" will be in denial and will pooh-pooh that a larger correction is possible. I think it was about a week ago, I cautioned that the markets were warning of danger. That was before Blythe got her free ticket to pillage.

The gold and silver "community" does not price gold in dollars. We do not price in leveraged speculation and charts. We price gold in the behaviors of nations and their people. If Blythe and her monkeys make the price cheaper, well then, let me be the first to back up my truck for delivery.