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Archive for June, 2010

Forget jobs and health care. The most far-reaching effect of North Carolina’s midterm elections could be which party gets to draw legislative and congressional districts next year.

The reason: Redistricting can go far in making or breaking a party’s political fortunes. States are required to redraw their districts every decade to reflect population shifts documented in the census. If Tar Heel Republicans control the process this time around, it could be their ticket out of an electoral slump that dates back to Reconstruction.

From the Carolina Journal

But if Democrats — who have a 30-20 majority in the Senate and 68-52 edge in the House — maintain control, it could guarantee their command of state politics for the foreseeable future and strengthen their majorities in the state’s congressional delegation.

“There are massive implications for the future, not least because the two parties seem so evenly matched,” said Andy Taylor, chairman of the political science department at N.C. State University. “The composition of a few districts could make a significant difference on which party is in control. That obviously ups the stakes considerably for this election.”

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly email gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling writes in the Wall Street Journal that, “The census taker who has been knocking on your door is part of a process that will almost certainly make it more difficult for President Barack Obama to be re-elected in 2012. Of course, no one knows what the political environment will be in 29 months, but the 2010 Census is certain to change the Electoral College math in a way that will favor the Republicans. Should the president roll up the popular vote majority that he did in 2008, the new scorecard for 2012 won’t make a difference come Election Day. … The process of redrawing the congressional maps in each state is done by some combination of the state legislature and governor. In states where either the Democrats or Republicans control both houses of the legislature and the governorship, the maps reflect the most brutal kind of political partisanship. In those states with split control, the redistricting fights have historically been the ultimate game of ‘Let’s Make a Deal.’”

“Republicans are in for a banner election year on Capitol Hill and might pick up enough seats to gain control of the House of Representatives,” prognostication guru Charlie Cook recently told Maryland legislative leaders. “Another bad sign for Democrats: Third-party voters, who are likely to be a key bloc in numerous races this year, tend to vote against the party in power, Cook said. ‘They focus their anger with whoever is in charge.’ The outcome of this fall’s elections at the state level are important for another reason — congressional redistricting, which will be driven by the party in power in each state capital. ‘If your party is going to get hammered, you never want it to be in a year that ends in zero,’ Cook said.”

“With two years left as governor and barred by law from seeking a third term, [Gov. Mitch] Daniels is making an all-out effort to put the Statehouse back under Republican control,” reports the Indianapolis Star. “House Minority Leader Brian Bosma — an Indianapolis Republican who hopes this effort will return him to the House speaker job — said candidate recruitment began days after the 2008 election, when Democrats won a 52-48 majority. That year, he said, Republicans and Democrats each spent about $7.5 million on House races. The cost is expected to reach that or more this year, Bosma and other lawmakers say. Part of the reason is the heightened importance of 2010. The legislature elected in November will draw district maps, based on the new census, for the Indiana General Assembly and Congress. ‘This is the year that we will predetermine state legislative and congressional leadership for the next decade through the maps,’ Bosma said. And Daniels was ‘a key part’ of finding the right candidates, Bosma said.”

Tennessee “Democrats and Republicans will wrestle over nearly 60 seats in the state legislature, as well as two open seats in Congress and the right to succeed Gov. Phil Bredesen, in a five-month sprint to the general election Nov. 2. The biggest prize in this year’s election is control of the state House of Representatives. Republicans hold a two-seat edge in the chamber, with Speaker Kent Williams exiled from the party for joining with Democrats to elect himself last year. The GOP hopes to build on its majority this November and elect a new speaker from within its ranks. Party Chairman Chris Devaney said last week that he believes the party has a chance of winning as many as 18 seats now held by Democrats. ‘The 2010 election is very important because we’re on the verge,’ he said. ‘We can take a majority in Congress, the governor’s office and the legislature. We’re on the verge of leading at every level.’” Republicans already hold a substantial majority in the Senate, and victory in the House would give the party control over the legislative agenda next year, as well as redistricting required by the completion of this year’s census.”

The Morning Call’s Colby Itkowitz gives a redistricting primer to Pennsylvania voters writing, “Early estimates indicate Pennsylvania’s population growth has not kept pace with other states, meaning it likely will lose one or two of its 19 congressional seats. Pennsylvania has been losing seats every decade since 1910. … The state General Assembly is then tasked with redrawing the congressional district map, which often results in a politically charged debate. The party in power often draws the districts in a way that would lead to it picking up the most seats in the U.S. House. The process of drawing the districts in unusual shapes to benefit a particular party is called “gerrymandering.’ A handful of bills to reform the process has been introduced in the state Legislature but never moved. It is now too late to make any changes that would impact 2011 redistricting.”

Speaking of the process, the Sacramento Bee reports, “The 620 remaining applicants for seats on the state’s new redistricting commission are mostly affluent white male Democrats, according to a new statistical study by one of those on the list. Vladimir Kogan, a refugee from the Soviet Union who later became a journalist and political science scholar, reviewed the on-line profiles of all 620 to create his demographic and political profile. He is a researcher on governance issues for the Lane Center for the American West at Stanford University and a doctoral candidate at the University of California, San Diego. Kogan found that 67.6 percent of those on the list are non-Latino whites — roughly comparable to the proportion of the electorate that’s white but more than 25 percentage points higher than the white non-Latino proportion of the overall population. His analysis also determined that 53.3 percent are Democrats — about nine percentage points higher than Democratic voter registration statewide — and just 28.9 percent are Republicans, about two points below GOP registration.”

“Democrats and Republicans agreed on several points Monday at a 3 1/2-hour redistricting hearing in San Antonio. They agreed that congressional and legislative districts should be equitable, that rancorous bickering is no way to construct a legislative map, and that the days of partisan gerrymandering in this state must end. But the devil is always in the details when it comes to redistricting, a point that U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, noted early in the proceedings. ‘In a way, it’s fitting that this is the longest day of the year, because this is going to be a long process,’ Smith said. Monday’s joint hearing of the House Committees on Redistricting and Judiciary and Civil Jurisprudence — on the University of Texas at San Antonio’s downtown campus — marked the unofficial kickoff for that process. This time around, the stakes are particularly high, with leaders from both parties predicting that Texas will gain three or four congressional seats as a result of the U.S. census.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly email gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Republicans hit 60; already looking at the “biggest story of 2010”; Ohio plan fails, others still alive; Indiana on the cusp; Maryland to play it fair; Corrine Brown doesn’t; Texas redistricting appointments.

Republicans across the country marked a significant milestone, this week, with the 59th and 60th state legislative special election victories since President Barack Obama was elected President. The two wins took place in Virginia House Districts 26 and 27 as Republicans Tony Wilt and Roxann Robinson handily defeated Democrats in the races to fill those seats. RSLC Chairman, Ed Gillespie tells FOX’s Hannity, “I think people are quickly coming to the conclusion this president may not be up for the office, may not be up for the job. And that’s a major determination if the voters come to that conclusion.” Watch video HERE.

Texas State Representative Jim Jackson “has been appointed to joint subcommittees with the Redistricting Committee. The joint subcommittees will hold hearings throughout the State on the drawing of Congressional & House — Senate District lines as a result of the new 2010 Census.”

Pollster David Hill writes in The Hill, “I have said it before, and I’ll say it again. While many look at control of Congress as the biggest story of the 2010 elections, it’s likely that state legislative races across the nation and some Florida ballot measures will end up having more impact on party and other political fortunes in the long run. The parties that control the legislatures after the 2010 elections and census will be masters of the redistricting process in many states, deciding which party is advantaged when legislative and congressional lines are redrawn for the next decade. And in Florida, where competing ballot measures pit supposed reformers against insiders who have dueling amendments on the ballot to tailor the districting process, the stakes are already high and evident, months before the election.”

“Lawmakers have failed to pass a plan to create a bipartisan board to draw Ohio’s future legislative and congressional districts. The General Assembly was unable to overcome differences in proposed bills updating how Ohio draws its political maps in a rush to finish business overnight Thursday.” The Columbus Dispatch’s Joe Hallett opines, “Despite the best efforts of officials such as Sen. Jon Husted, R-Kettering, and Peg Rosenfield, head of election reform for the League of Women Voters of Ohio, another opportunity has been lost to change the way Ohio draws new districts every 10 years for its members of the Ohio House and Senate. There still is time for the General Assembly to pass a redistricting-reform bill by Aug. 4, the deadline for putting it on the Nov. 2 ballot, but don’t hold your breath.”

“Bills have been introduced in several such states to create independent commissions to oversee redistricting instead, beginning in 2011 after the once-a-decade U.S. census count. A redistricting bill in New York has gained the support of Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican Rick Lazio, the leading candidates for governor, but not the legislature. … “New York Senate President Malcolm Smith was quoted as saying Democrats would ‘draw the lines so that Republicans will be in oblivion in the state of New York for the next 20 years.’”

University of Notre Dame political analyst Robert Schmuhl points out that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is a busy man. “The governor is hoping to help turn a slim Democratic majority in the Indiana House of Representatives into a Republican majority with this year’s election. Redistricting for state and congressional legislative districts will be on his agenda in 2011.”

“Whoever wins the gubernatorial election in November will have an effect on Maryland politics long after he leaves office. The victor … will guide the process to redraw congressional and legislative district lines, influencing who runs and who wins elected office for the next decade. With the candidates representing two different political philosophies, people familiar with the process have two different expectations of how the redistricting process will go forward.”

“Rep. Corrine Brown is known for being a feisty congresswoman and often has a lot to say when asked a question. But when she was asked a question about how the boundaries of her congressional district on a radio program Thursday morning, she talked for a while, then hung up on the interviewer.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here

I have said it before, and I’ll say it again. While many look at control of Congress as the biggest story of the 2010 elections, it’s likely that state legislative races across the nation and some Florida ballot measures will end up having more impact on party and other political fortunes in the long run.

The parties that control the legislatures after the 2010 elections and census will be masters of the redistricting process in many states, deciding which party is advantaged when legislative and congressional lines are redrawn for the next decade. And in Florida, where competing ballot measures pit supposed reformers against insiders who have dueling amendments on the ballot to tailor the districting process, the stakes are already high and evident, months before the election.