Wednesday, February 7, 2018

What Springer's Arbitration Settlement Tells Us

Long-time friend of Astros County Brian Arbour sent this in for review and, ultimately, publication. Brian is an Associate Professor of Political Science at John Jay College, City University of New York. He is an Astros fan who teaches Yankees fans for a living.

What Springer’s Arbitration Settlement Tells Us: There is a Limit on Future Payrolls

By Brian Arbour

Today the Astros announced that they had agreed to a contract extension with George Springer that will pay the World Series MVP $24 million dollars over the next two years to patrol center field in Minute Maid Park.

What is most notable about this extension is its structure. The Astros will pay Springer $12 million dollars in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons.. The $12 million that Springer will earn in 2018 is not only higher than the $8.5 million the Astros offered in arbitration, but also the $10.5 million the team offered him.

The Astros offered Springer more money in 2018 than he would have made in arbitration, regardless of outcome. In exchange, Springer agreed to take less money in 2019 than he likely would have made in arbitration that season.

What should we learn from this unique contract signed by the Astros.

First, the Astros are in a relatively flush financial position in 2018. They had more money in their budget for 2018 than they had spent so far, and they decided to spend that money now in

an effort to reduce the money the need to spend next season.

Second, the Astros are not likely to sign another major league free agent before Opening Day. Some have suggested that the Astros might sign someone like Carlos Gonzalez or Lucas Duda to

be a left handed DH, but the team seems focused on letting Evan Gattis DH most days (and,

subsequently, to give a healthy number of plate appearances to Derrick Fisher)

And Third, the Astros are worried about their payroll in 2019 and 2020. By giving Springer more money now when they are flush, the Astros reduce his salary in 2019, In addition, there is a

good chance this will reduce Springer’s salary somewhat in 2020, as the arbitrator will likely base

Springer’s salary that season as a percentage increase off the $12 million in 2019.

This third point is the most important to me. The Astros current payroll is relatively low (19th entering the 2017 season) and highly efficient. Most of the team’s best players are cost-controlled. This allows management not only to operate with a payroll below nearly all of their companions on last years election, but also allowed the team to pay market prices for their 2017 veteran additions (Reddick, McCann, and Beltran).

Starting in 2019, the Astros payroll situation becomes murky. Next offseason, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, and Charlie Morton are free agents, and Carlos Correa will get a big raise as he becomes eligible for free agency. In 2020, Jose Alruve and Justin Verlander can explore the market. In short, the Astros will need to pony up more bucks in the near future to retain their starts and to compete for another world championship.

But how much money will Jim Crane be willing to pony up to re-sign those players or find new ones? We don't know. And we don't know not just because the future is unknown. We don't know primarily because we have no track record with which to judge Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow’s willingness to boost the payroll. For Crane and Luhnow's entire tenure, the Astros have operated as a low budget team. But the decision to spend little money was part of a plan to rebuild the team from the ashheap left behind by Drayton McClane. The spending spree last off season was based on having a low payroll for the rest of the spots on the roster. It offers us little insight moving forward.

Will Crane spend lots of money in 2019 and beyond to take the teams payroll into the top third in the league? We don't know, but the move to frontload Springers contract is a signal that there are clearly limits on future payrolls. The Springer contract shaves dollars off of the payroll in 2019 and 2020.

Obviously, Crane could choose to spend up the payroll. The low payrolls up to this point have allowed him to run the team at a profit, even in the depths of the consecutive 100 loss seasons. I have a fantasy that he tucked some of those profits into certificates of deposits nicknamed 2019 payroll. Of course, it is just as possible that he used the money to expand his personal collection of ivory back scratchers. Crane could of course choose to run the Astros slightly less profitably to please his customers. Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt.

That today’s Springer signing demonstrates that there is a limit to future spending by the Astros still does not answer every question about the future of the Astros finances. We do not know, nor can we, what the limit is on future spending. We also do not know how this year’s free agent market slowdown will depress prices to the point that the Astros future free agents seek out a contract extension with the team. What we do know is that the bill for paying the Astros is going to increase in the next few years. Management was trying to get ready for that today.

My take was considerably different. What Springers two year extension says to me is that he was unwilling to extend beyond arbitration and intends to play for the highest bidder at that point. The Astros will be positioned to trade him at the end of this extension and maximise the prospect return, infusing the team with more young and controllable players.

A few points. Astros 2018 payroll currently 9th. I imagine in a month it's around 10th-12th, but it's a huge boost. 2nd, when DK, JV, and McCann come off the books, that's a lot of money, about 44 million. Some of that will go into arb. payments, I hope a lot into extending Altuve and Correa, but we don't need to replace any of them on the FA market if we have good talent coming through.We need some cheap options, like Whitley and Tucker. Otherwise you just become the Yankees from ten years ago. Or a worse version of that (2017 Detroit Tigers at 195 million and 78 wins). To me the deal says nothing about the Astros and everything about Springer. He might lose a couple million if he has an MVP year, but he gains a couple if he gets injured or has a down year. It just gives him some stability (relative term for a multi-millionaire but whatevs).

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