The Japan striker Yoshinori Muto is set to reject a move to Chelsea in favour of a transfer to the Bundesliga club Mainz having expressed doubts over his chances of playing regular first-team football at Stamford Bridge.

Muto, 22, has only recently made his mark in the first team at FC Toyko having graduated from Keio University in March with an economics degree. He scored 13 goals last season and has eight in 11 appearances this time round, making a favourable impression as well for the Japan national side to prompt interest from across Europe and firm bids of around £3m from Chelsea and Mainz.

Although the London club claim they have been monitoring the forward’s progress for some time, the motivation to secure Muto’s services increased when the Premier League champions signed a five-year sponsorship deal with Yokohama Rubber worth around £40m a season. Yet the player would have struggled to secure a work permit and would most likely have continued his development on loan in the Netherlands or Belgium had he signed a proposed five-year contract.

The striker claimed to be “flattered” by Chelsea’s interest but had made public his doubts last month, keen as he is to further his career. “I want to think about it carefully,” he said. “Where can I go to develop? A team that suits me, where I can play and develop. I’m thinking about that, and for now I just want to take my time and think it through.”

It now appears he will opt for Mainz, who are 12th in the Bundesliga with his compatriot Shinji Okazaki their leading scorer. Formal confirmation is expected on Thursday.