The detailed report of the International Federation of Master Cotton
Spinners and Manufacturers' Association showing consumption by countries
and types of cotton has been received since the March release of World
Cotton Prospects. The following is a brief analysis of the report. For
addition comparisons see Tables -" to 13,in the appendix, pages 16 to
21. :

World mill consumption of American cotton during the six months ended
January 31, 1931 amounted to 5,278,000 running bales compared with 7,083,000
bales in the corresponding period last season. This decrease of 1,805,000
bales compared with a decrease of 2,038,000 bales in the consumption of all
cotton and an increase of 28,000 bales in the consumption of Indian cotton
during the first half of the present season compared with the same period
last year. The greatest decline in the consumption cf American cotton during
this period took place in the United States and Groat Britain, although
consumption nf American cotton on the Continent of Europe during the first
half of the season was also considerably below last season. China was the
only important country which consumed more American cotten during this period
than during the corresponding period in 1929-30. The countries in which the
consumption of Indian cotton showed an increase over the half year ended
January, 1930 were France, China, Great Britain, India and some of the
smaller European countries. The total world consumption for the four classes
of cotton reported by the Federation for the six months ended January, 1931

C-69

*1

(4.877)

--

I

=-L--

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C-69 --

in per cent of the consumption in the sa~c p.:riod last.' season 'v.re American
74.5 ocr cent, East Indian 100.9 -cr cent, Egptian 78.5 per 'cent, .Sundrics
94.2 Tnor cent and total 84. per c nt. Those connsunption r,-pcrts 'indicate
that d ri:.g periods of de-.rc-esicn 'here is a tendency for mills to consumeO
a larger proportion of ch:.anor cotton than in y-.ar_ of prosperity. In case
of the displacem,-cnt of A: ritcn cotocn b:- I:_.iAn cotton it was due in part,
no do..bt, to the fact that the r.lat ive pric..s of the two jrowths was more
favorable to the, consumption of Ind.iarn t:. ring the latter period than during.
the first half of the 1939-C0 Es-sc.n. Tho.- consumption reports include the
same figures for R ssi)n con.puicrption .s for the six months -.dcd July 31,
1930 since no rcports were rccei-,-.d by the Fediration for the past six
months oericd.

United Stt.tos

The domeas. Ic cons'-..ption of rawi cotton during March amounted to
491,000 running bales compared ,'ith 434,0':,0 bales duri-g Febr..ary and
5036,0 0 bales during March 1930. DnriLng the past ten years consumption
during March has averaged" abo .i. 29,0'00 bales ..bovc February whereas the
consumption during March this year w.as abo..t 57,0)0 bales above Fcbruary.
The index of cotton consumption after adjusting for seasonal, increased
from 84 per c.nt in February to 89 per cent in March. Toe index in l arch
1930C. was 94. The total consumption in the United States for the eight
months ended March 51, 131 was 3,391,0':0 bales compared with 4,316,0':0
bales for the same period in 1929-W0.

The production of standard cotton cloth increased 2.4 per cent during
March on a weekly basis vwhercas during the previous throe years production
in March has averaged slightly below February. Some increase in production
was to be exoocted following such increases in sales and shipments as took
place during January and February. Unfilled orders increased 34.6 per cent
S and stoc.cs decreased 12.5 pjr cent dairing those two months. Production is
still being curtailed which together with an additional pick-up in shiprr.cnts
during March resulted in c further reduction of stocks, the decrease .mount-
ing to 1"4.3 per cent from the end of F"bruary to the end of March. This
left the stocks' on hand at the end of March the lowest since the end of
October 1927. While the average weekly sales Jduriig March were lower than
during oithcr February or January they were still 8.7 per cent above March
production.

Groat 3rit .in

Weekly cabls from C-rcat Brit: in during the past four weeks indicate
that businescs betiucn Lancashire arnj t'.. Cri,:-.t is again dcclini.n: follow-
ing a brief pick-up during early March, which cano with the :nniouncnmeUnt
of the ending of the Indian boycott. The d-.cr-a:se in business is probably
duo to a considerable extent to the fcclii"- of unicrtainty as to the trend
of business n.r.d in -.art to the declining prices of raw cotton since early
March. Total exports of piece goods to all countries during M;rch amounted
to 136.4 million square yards compared '.ith 1-'6.3 million square yards in
Febrt-.ary and 281.3 million yards in March 1930. DurinE th:o past ton years
exports of piece goods have averaged about 18.9 million yards over February.
Total exports for the eight months endsd March 31, 1931 amounted to about
1,159.8 million square yards. This compares with a total of 2,276.2 million
square yards during the same period last season or a dccreasc of about 49
per cent.

C-63 -10-
Ex-orts of yarns during March mounted tc 10.8 million pounds
compared with 9.3 million pounds in February and 12.7 million pounds in
H-rch 1930. The total for the season to the end of March was 85.0 million
pounds, 19.1 million pounds or 18.3 per c, nt below the sne period last
sa.son.

Ccntinntal Euroe d-uring March 1i

A significant decline in raw cotton prices accompanied by hesitancy
on the part of buyers, featured in the continental market during March. The
improved confidence, so aii.aront in February, had not been seriously
disturbed up to the c-nd of Larch, however, a.s is evidenced by the fact that
set-backs in raw cotton prices vwrc readily accepted as good opportunities
for price fixing. The trao.d seemed to consider the market "well balanced",
a term conveying the idea that present conditions justify neither significant
advances nor important declines of raw cotton prices. At the beginning of
April liquidation of May longs and professional selling, however, caused
considerable uncertainty among the buyers.

T.o. prices oven in early April vwre considered reasonable and the
advice to buy, or tc fix prices on every- decline, was quite generally
circulated among continent-al s-oinnors. Factors considered as having a
favorable effect on the present situation are, more hopeful reports on the
cotton mill and trade situation in the United States, improved raw takings
on the part of Japan and China, low yarn and cloth stocks in important
cousur'i:.g regions and prospects for some increase in consumer and trade
buying, at least in the second part of the year. On the other hand, the
slight pick-up in American fertilizer sales and the unexpected growth in
sales of Russian cotton at Liverpool this yzar have had a bearish effect
upon tra.c s ntirmnt. Te semi-annual report of the Federation at Manchester
was also considered depressing.

Total spinner and weaver sales of cotton yarn and cloth on the
Continent showed little, if any, improvcmc-at over February. Vthile a slight
revival was evident in central Europe, therc was no change in France, other
western Euro- can countries and Italy. The existing keen competition in the
yarn and cloth trade leaves spinncrs' margins rather small.

Spin:,ing anid weaving mill activity, on the Continent as a whole,
scems to have shown a slight improvcinnt over February, mostly as a result
of the situation in central E.r-one -w.-hre operations have boon somewhat
increased.

As might be cxpocted, with wjaker prices in raw cotton, spinner
purchases of Amerrican and other cotton during March were considerably smaller
than in the previous month. There was still interest at the brC-nning of
March, particularly for Indian cotton. Purchases fell off she .i- after
that, however, and have rc.nained quiet throughout the rre.ainder of March.
Spinner price fixing, however, was of good volume orn evey setback in New
York. C.I.f. import purchases by merchants at Bromen were also reduced.

Ge nnarn

Cotton textile conditions in Germany show no significant change
from a month ago. The -orcsr-nt situation might be characterized as a hesitant
maintenance of the slightly improved conditions recorded during February.
I7 ased on report dated lpril 2, 1931 from Assistant A-ricultural
Uoin.issioner Dourld F. Christy at Berlin, supplemented by cable on April 11.

In vi'n of the nucr. re 1.ce. i .l ill stocks, the recent improvement in sales
of ,yarn r -r.: /,jrics has led to a slight incr-,.se in mill activit:- :.-i:-l. I:arch.
Tnis is "./;' rcntl;, so;.iew:at i aT .nsition to the efforts of the spinner cartel
whi c'. ;':i i,,to efrfet on 'T;rch 1J. As sa'-, -sted in our last report, however,
the c-.rt'- ""-s -not set up as 3 strictly production reducing sche.ae, and in
view o0 t. e jr.ct ti.at only aboi.t 50 per cent of all spindlts are u-nlr cartel
control, a slight increase in spin.ner takin ns for "c 1ch is not surprising.

h:.ce-.t for a snort *rrioj. of acti'-ity early in Morch, spinner and im-
porter b- ;;i-;, at 3re-nen was mu.Tch reduced as a result of the declining price
tende.-ic in thie raw market. An; 1 setbacks in the row- market, however, were
use! b.:- .jyiiA:crs for -.rice fixii.g on old contracts.

Czecho o-a.::i ,-_u n A.... *stria.a

Coi. laints ol thie low'v liel of yarn anid cloth sales continue in
Czec.oslovel-ic :rid Austria notwithstanding the contin..ance of a slight seasonal
revival. K.ill activity in botn countries show significant declines ra.n"1inJ
from 10 i o 20 .-cr cent below last .ear. Czechoslovakian weavers and spinners
are seriousL; concerned about the trade policy situation. Sales to Hun ary
are cut o'.f because of the tariff war existent since December 15, while the
lack .o. concessions to the Czecnoslovakian cotton inh..stry in a new- treaty
with; Yugoslavia ai-'i thie e::pect.ation of the abolishment of the r'.-sent trade
treaty ':;i t. --.stria are .1Oso dc,-'ressing factors. The proposed Tariff Union
between; G-r:.r.n; and Austria, unlle:Zs joined by Czechoslovakia, would also be a
serious '.c.a-.icn.p to the Czjcl;-oslov'j:ian cotton weavers, but we.ld at the s'.me
ti.ie pro.:otc tthe Aastrian cotton, "arn business with Germany.

Poland reportss that diri-. _, bruary spinning mills increased o-,.rations,
alt.:-.; 's ol ya-an were -unsutisfactory and mill stocks were risiTn,. The
inc-:.;- :.i o ,crvtio:ns wgs again reported as res-j.tin,; fror t.-: efforts of
ti'h l Circ illss to force oi.tsiders into t..w; cartel, t:c existence of which
t:; h:i to rc;n/ for a period of tree yc'.rs. To date all negotiations to
re-e.vtablis. t c.c cartel have failed :ind tnhe ovur;j.:ent is considering the
issu.l.cc of a decree, or the passage of lc isletion, ,;'rescribin-. a coi-pulsory
Prodi.ction cartcj. for cotton soinnrs. Sini:,--r de;nnand for raw cotto:- remained
limited.

Rus si a

As .a rovio:. b(.cn indi,:;cate prospects for i.nnortation of A~-erican
cotton" ito USSR a'r very poor. A recent st .tr-nti o' tnic chair man of the
Textile nion to t.-i effect thit no cotton will be inmorted froi the United
States .l.ri:-. tio.: cu.rrent seaso:, inmrel.- confi-nis previous reports. At the
sar: ti.no, so'i 120,000 biles of cotton from Soviet Russia are rc-jortcd to
niave, b1.3 sold ct Liverpool this se.-.so comirn.rcd with only about 7,0O bales
a yc -r a:. TI- q..ality of the cotton is reported ars similar to that of good
gr-ad T.';:rs cotton. Some triel Y.rchiascs of Russian cotton ':ave also been
ini.d b;,- PoliK.: cotton sills which, prior to the wor, were 7oo.,d cons'anicrs
of Co..uc:c ti : "r.i C...itr-li :-siatic cotton.

which was released April 17 shows that 54.6 per cent of the crop -was tender-
able on features contract whereas only 75.7 per cent of the 1929 crop was
tendcr.ble. Onl;: 2.0 rer cent of the crop was untenderable in grade this year
compire.1 'a.it1 4.l1 per cent last y-ear. Tne greatest improvement in quality
was in t.ce staple length. In 19.29 t-i .jer cont of t.ie cron which was un-
tenderabl.- because of staple amounted to 18.3 per cent whereas this year there
was only 12.6 per cent untenderable in staple. Of the 1930 crop 24.9 per
cent ".as i5/i6 inch to 31/32 inch in staple length. Only 18.9 per cent of
the 19i:' croj fell in this group.

Fertilizer to;, sales Th.e sale of fertilizer in the cotton belt is
given coni,.:'rreble attention at tnis time of year because of its rel-.tion to
acrz.l a:ic tihe influence it has on yields in some States. On the average
tag sa.ls ?.urinr the four months December through ::arch represent abo:t 66
per cenit o- tLe seasons siaes and s les in April about 20 per cent of the
total. Fo' t..e four months ended lMrch 31, 1931 trg sales in tne South were
only 65.5 ..er cent of the sales during the same period last season. Soles
durii-I- II;.rci-r ere 72.5 per cent of I.'.rch 1930.

.-i .iL-_ low i n ~ )t "-innins of all cotton in F.ypt for the season
to April 1 a.irunted to 1,292,000 bales of 478 pounds net, according to a
cable. received by the Foreign Service rf the Bureau. of Agricultural Wconomics
from the international Institute of ,Ariculture at Rore. This further sub-
stanti,.tes the evidence presented last month, that the official estimate of
the .'ptir.n cotton crop was too high. The E'gptian Government's december
es.tii.?.te placed the crop at 1,697,000 bales for 1930-31 compared with
1,725,000 -c-s in 1929-30 and 1,672,000 balas in 1928-29. The ginnini:s to
April 1, however, showed a decrease of 262,000 bales or 16.9 per cent from
those for t::c corresponding period last year and a decrease of 212,000 bales
of 14.1 per cent under ginnin-s to April 1, 1929. Ginnings to March 1 this
year '.ere 15 per cent below those to IMrch 1a year ago.

Of the total innings to April 1, 1931, 326,000 bales were of the
Sakeliaridis variety. Tne ginnings of Sakellaridis cotton were down 163,000
bales or 53-1/3 per cent from those to April 1, 1930, and were 30.6 per cent
or 1l-4,000 uales below those to April 1, 1929. Ginnings of other varieties
amountcli :lo SC3,000 bales vw.ich is a decrease of 9.3 per cent or 99,030
bales .ro.-i .-.oe to April 1, 1930 and a decrease of 6.5 per cent or 67,000
bales fro.- those to A.pril 1, 1929.

S'.'.bstentiatin, the decrease in innings of 16.9 per cent from those
of last y'ear there has been an equal decrease in the receipts of cotton at
Al ex.-vnri a..

Both last year and the year before giniings to April 1 amnoited to 90
per cent of the final production estimate. This year innings to April 1
amnounte'. to only 76 per cent of the December estimate.

Acute water shortage in Egypt for 1931-32 crop With the plating of
the 15,31-32 E.,ptia_ cotton crop well along, there is every indication of a
real su nrmer water shortage, according; to Cotton Specialist P. K. Horris at
Cairo. A c.ble dated April 8 stated that, effective .lay 1, there would be
increased restrictions on the use ol w.ter on cotton lands in lower end middle
Egypt, and that rice growing nad been prohibited in those areas. As early
as ..Carc.r 16 certain water restrictions were already in operation. At that

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0-69 -16-
time the fields were bein, watered for 6 days, with th'e itches closed for
15-day intervals, instead of the 6-d-a intervals practiced in years of ;ood
water supply. The water conservation programs 'a.s started. very early in te.e
season. Storn.e de.is were practically full in M'arch, but the r:-te of inflow
was even then regarded as below the s-;ring pinti.ng reqliremoents.

The 1931-32 season so far has been re.ardedr as a "poor Nile" se:.son
resembling those of 1932-23 and 1923-24, Mr. I:or-ii, reports. In those t'.,o
years the yield ]per acre averaged 360 pounds whereas d-jrin the thrl'-? seasons
1927-28 to 1S22-30 the yield avero-ed about .419 pounds per acre. *T.3 ,'il'e
has been low .11 winter. A :'paren:tly the annual Abyssini.an floods were too
light to -.eep the head waters of the '.ile in -,ood volum.e. Tre c.trrnt situation
is reviving interest in the coirmletion of a dam south of Khartoum be;uL several
years a.o. Th-e importance of cotton in Egyptian national econom r rill insure
that crop first consideration in tne distribution of available water this season,
Ordinarily there is no restriction upon the growing of rice, which.uses much
more water than dces cotton per acre, and is regarded as less iinortant.

Anglo-E3- ;-tian Sudan

On April 2, a revised official estimate of the 1930-31 Sudan crop was re-
leased which sowed a reduction in the estimate of 58,000 bales, the December
1 estimate was 171,000 bales of 478 pounds net and the latest estimate is
113,000 bales. This is 29,000 bales below the final estimate for last season's
crop. According to Cotton Specialist P.I. lorris who haz recently convoleted an
extended trip throaun the Sudan the reduction is due largely to the da,.iae
done by the !eaf curl and black arm. The greatest damage was done,in the
Gezira district. Trhe March 1 estimnt.e for this district was 123,000 bales, but
the indice.tio:se are now that the crop in the Gezira province may reach about
65,000 bales, naif of which ,Ias already been picked. Black arm is of long stand-
ing in Gezira. while leaf curl is new and widespread, l.r. Yorris reports. The
leaves and breaches half way. up the plants have been destroyed by the bloc.: arm
and the -prod'.cers are not able to control it.

The To'L.r area which is usually next to Gezira in cotton production is
expected to produce only about 9,300 bales this year, this area also being in-
fected with leaf curl. The third largest cotton area is around Kass..l. '.w".ere
the crop will not exceed 10,400 bales to 11,400 beles.

Russia

;7ith t-ie attention of tre local correspondents in the cotton r. 'ions
concentrated on the approaching sprin; plaritin-. cernpai-n, reports on the develop-
ment of -Russian cotton procurings have not al]ear-:.d in the Russian press of
late. The l:.crge acreage increase pla-nned for cotton this :'ear necessitates the
concentration of all forces on the preparation for this campaign. Prospects
are not ver:, satisfactory, however, in most of the important cotton producing
regions of the. Union. Slow transpo-rt-tiot of0 sowi:- :.ietcrial and rainn are
greatly complained of, while a shortage of feedstuffs, of fuel for tractors .nd
of qualified workers is also reported.

PlouLhin, for the cotton pjantii: car.'paign began over practicall' all of
Middle Asia around March 20. Trial piontin..s were re.]orted at so',c' points and
plantimVs are c:.pected to develop on a larger scale at the beginning of April.
Timely seding" is greatly urged in view of the fact that, according. to past
experience, best yields are harvested off fields planted around -tpril 13,
whereas a del:- of a month sometimes causes considerable reduction in the yield.