Release Detail

October 18, 2000 - Clinton Holds On To 7-Point Lead In New York Race,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Lazio Wins On Trust, But Clinton Wins As Pothole Senator

First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton has a 50 - 43 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio
among New York State likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Mrs. Clinton held the same 50 - 43 percent lead in polls by the independent Quinnipiac
University September 27 and October 6.
Lazio holds a slight 49 - 44 percent lead among likely voters upstate, while Clinton leads
61 - 31 percent in New York City. The race in the suburbs is now a toss-up, with Lazio
getting 48 percent to Clinton's 46 percent.
Only 28 percent of likely voters expect Lazio to win the race, while 49 percent of voters,
including 22 percent of Lazio voters, expect Clinton to win.
From October 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 969 New York State likely
voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.
"Tick, tick, tick, Rick. Time is running out and Rep. Lazio has not gained an inch on
Mrs. Clinton since their first debate September 13. If Lazio has an October surprise,
well, October is here," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University
Polling Institute.
"All those trips upstate continue to pay off for Mrs. Clinton. She's even catching up to
Lazio among his neighbors in the suburbs. Can she hang on for three more weeks?"

Mrs. Clinton's favorability among likely voters is 40 - 37 percent, with 22 percent
mixed and 1 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This compares to a
39 - 38 favorability in the October 6 Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 35 - 29 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with
28 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Lazio had
a 36 - 29 percent favorability in the October 6 poll.

Comparing the two candidates' characteristics, New York likely voters say:

53 - 35 percent that Clinton would be more effective in getting federal funds for New York;

43 - 33 percent that Lazio is more honest and trustworthy;

46 - 42 percent that Clinton cares more about their needs and problems;

52 - 39 percent that Clinton's views on key issues are closer to their own views;

55 - 32 percent that Lazio has better experience to be a U.S. Senator from New York;

51 - 37 percent that Lazio has a better understanding of New York issues and problems.

"New Yorkers think Lazio is more honest. They think Mrs. Clinton is closer to them
on issues. But here's the surprise: Most New Yorkers think she'd be a better Pothole
Senator -- in the tradition of Al D'Amato -- than Lazio, a Long Islander like D'Amato."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for
research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-5201.

5. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind
before the election?

... Likely Voters ....
Clinton Lazio
Voters Voters

Made up 82% 83%

Might change 18 16

DK/NA - 1

6. Would you describe your support for Clinton/Lazio as strongly favoring
him/her, or do you like Clinton/Lazio but with reservations, or do you support
Clinton/Lazio because you dislike the other candidate?

... Likely Voters ....
Clinton Lazio
Voters Voters

Strongly favor 54% 43%

Like with
reservations 35 29

Dislike other
cand. 9 25

DK/NA 2 3

8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect will win the Senate
election - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

... Likely Voters ....
Clinton Lazio
Tot Voters Voters

Clinton 49% 73% 22%
Lazio 28 6 54

DKNA 24 20 24

17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more honest
and trustworthy - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?

21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more
effective in the United States Senate at getting federal funds for projects in
New York state - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rick Lazio?