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WTPN21 PGTW 011330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 127.8E TO 10.1N 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 011300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 480
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTION COVERING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011000Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES ORGANIZING BANDING AND DEEPER CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS
IMPROVED, SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT DAY, THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS PREDICT 99W CONTINUING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHERS DEPICT A NORTHWARD TURN AT LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021330Z.
//
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WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 011829Z
SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A 011331Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALED 25-30 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BOHOL SEA, JUST NORTH OF MINDANAO, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TD 01W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24 AND
TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 36,
TD 01W SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (25-26C).
C. AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 72, TD
01W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 THEN RAPIDLY
DIVERGES WITH GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING AN UNLIKELY RE-
CURVE NORTHWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 AND TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
36.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE
TO LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 012158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH LIMITED CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT, JUST WEST OF THE LLCC.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT
ASCAT DATA. TD 01W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 24, TD 01W SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (25-26C).
AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 60, TD 01W
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT RAPIDLY DIVERGES
WITH GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM DEPICTING AN UNLIKELY RE-CURVE
NORTHWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AT TAU 48 AND TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 24.//
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