Polls as referendum nears..

Possibly the most interesting point to consider from the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll on political party support is how it may affect the Lisbon Treaty referendum on 12th June.. although the question wasn’t actually put. doesn’t appear to have been put – George tells me that it was and the results will appear in tomorrow’s paper. Anyhoo.. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. From the Irish Times frontpage

The adjusted figures for party support, compared to the last Irish Times poll in January, are: Fianna Fáil, 42 per cent (up eight points); Fine Gael, 26 per cent (down five points); Labour, 15 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 4 per cent (down two points); PDs, 1 per cent (down two points); and Independents/others, 6 per cent (no change).

The poll showed that 35 per cent of voters intend to vote Yes, up nine points since the last Irish Times poll at the end of January, while the number intending to vote No is 18 per cent, up eight points. However, 47 per cent of voters either dont know how they will vote in the referendum on June 12th, or say they wont vote. This compares with 64 per cent who were in the dont know category in January.

In terms of satisfaction ratings the poll shows the Government has recovered considerable ground since January, with a rise of 13 points to 48 per cent.

This is close to the rating it achieved just before the last election.

Dublin is the weakest region for Fianna Fáil, while the party is strongest in Mr Cowen’s home region of Leinster and in Connacht- Ulster. Fine Gael is also weakest in Dublin but it is the strongest region for Labour, which is now significantly ahead of Sinn Féin and the Green Party in the capital.

When voters were asked whether they believed Bertie Ahern was right to resign from the taoiseach’s office when he did, 70 per cent said he was right while 24 per cent said he was wrong, and 6 per cent had no opinion. Fianna Fáil supporters were more inclined than others to say Mr Ahern was wrong to go but there was a two to one majority among party voters who said he was right to go.

Asked about Mr Ahern’s personal finances and tax liabilities, 65 per cent of people said he had not given the full picture and had further questions to answer (a drop of 13 points in the number holding that view) while 24 per cent said he had given the full picture (up 10 points).