Cities with the "right" industries and "right" jobs have been attracting the best and the brightest, while others have seen their economic fortunes dwindle, he says in his book "The New Geography of Jobs."

Too many upstate cities may be in the second camp.

The study by IHS Global Insight for the U.S. Conference of Mayors put upstate cities at the bottom of the heap when it comes to economic growth projections through 2020.

Of 363 metro areas, Albany came in at 338. Rochester (343), Syracuse (348), Ithaca (352) and Glens Falls (353) finished even lower. At the bottom were Utica and Binghamton.

Economist Jim Diffley, author of the IHS report, said several factors contributed to the weak upstate projections.

"Remember, upstate New York is hampered by zero population growth, zero job growth," he said. "That puts it a percentage point behind the rest of the country."

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Per capita GDP by metro area

The Capital Region is among the most prosperous metropolitan areas statewide but lags behind other metros where technology dominates.

Here's the percentage of residents with college degrees in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, compiled by the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. Data are from 2010.

1. Washington, D.C.: 46.8%

2. San Jose, Calif.: 45.3%

3. Stamford, Conn.: 44%

4. San Francisco: 43.4%

5. Madison, Wis.: 43.3%

6. Boston: 43%

7. Raleigh, N.C.: 41%

8. Austin, Texas: 39.4%

9. Denver, Colo.: 38.2%

10. Minneapolis: 37.9%

12. New York City: 36%

20. Albany: 33.2%

22. Rochester: 33%

37. Poughkeepsie: 30.9%

48. Syracuse: 29.2%

58. Buffalo: 28.3%

Still, state labor markets analyst James Ross said that while the state's private sector job growth has lagged that of the nation, "only Texas has added more jobs than New York" since the end of the recession.

Diffley said the Capital Region holds promise for future growth, thanks to its semiconductor industry, and that Buffalo also has begun showing signs of life.

"I'm more concerned about the Utica to Rochester area than Albany or Buffalo," he said.

Asked what the solution is, he replied "that's the $100 billion question.

"The answer recently was to attract high-technology businesses," he said. "But everybody's trying to do that."

Diffley said the lack of population growth has been a hindrance. "No one's attracted" to the area, he said.

But many people do come to upstate to attend college and that, says Little Falls entrepreneur and investor Martin Babinec, may be the key.

"With our 115 colleges and universities that collectively enroll about 500,000 students, attracting the talent we need isn't the issue," Babinec says. "Retaining the talent that flows through here is."

Babinec may be uniquely positioned to recognize what Silicon Valley has that upstate New York lacks.

He grew up in Little Falls, moved to Silicon Valley where he founded the cloud-based human resources provider TriNet, then returned to Little Falls, establishing Upstate Venture Connect to build a "startup ecosystem" that attracts and supports budding entrepreneurs.

"The young people who want to work in new industries don't see enough opportunities," he said Friday. "They're not looking at working in services or agriculture or traditional industries."

A traditional manufacturer provides some benefit to the local economy, creating 1.6 jobs for every manufacturing job, but the big gains come from innovative companies, with a job creation ratio of five to one, Babinec said.

Babinec, the keynote speaker at last Wednesday's 18th annual technology awards event in Colonie, questions some of the practices economic developers have taken as gospel.

"I'm not a believer in something that's going to be directed by government," he said Friday. "I'm not a believer that attracting companies to move in will create a lot of jobs.

"That's not where new industry jobs are being created in other areas," he said.

Babinec said there's a correlation between the amount of investment capital directed to new companies and the number of jobs created.

Here, once again, upstate falls short, ranking last or next to last among the regions tracked by PriceWaterhouseCoopers' quarterly Money Tree survey of venture capital investments.

Although Babinec isn't a fan of government intervention, "It would be nice if we have more (tax) incentives for individuals to invest in startups," he said, providing the venture capital that too often is lacking upstate.

Babinec also suggests establishing networks "that would connect (entrepreneurs) to those who can help them."

Upstate, Babinec says, has "the largest concentration of STEM (science, technology, engineering, math) programs of any place in the country, and the second-highest amount of research being done of any place in the country."

And grassroots efforts are under way in a number of cities here to offer the support that retains young talent.

In Troy, the Tech Valley Center of Gravity has attracted a wide variety of entrepreneurs, tinkerers and other types, and has outgrown its quarters in a former McDonald's restaurant in a downtown parking garage. It plans to move into a former Quackbenbush department store a block away.

Laban Coblentz, chairman of the Center of Gravity, says the expertise the Center is able to draw on has helped entrepreneurs develop their concepts and polish their presentations to investors, producing a "very very good success rate" in landing funding.

The Center, which has been in business a bit more than a year, now has more than 200 members.

Some issues long-criticized by the business community will remain.

Diffley of IHS said New York is still a high-cost state in which to do business.

For now, taxes are the least of the concerns for young startups.

"Our tax policies are not the issue for startups," Babinec said. "When you're a startup and don't have income, (taxes) don't matter."