News & analysis

Regional overview

Regional overview

Updated to Q4 2014

The European ethylene supply and demand balance tightened in October.

Supply was restricted by Shell’s cracker outage at Moerdijk in the Netherlands, as well as the onset of the remaining planned cracker maintenances for 2014. Unplanned outages in Antwerp, Belgium, and in Tarragona in Spain also had an influence.

Demand was better than expected throughout the fourth quarter. Despite softer feedstock, derivative demand was much healthier than expected. This was attributed to derivative producers ramping up operating rates to offset the shortfall caused by Shell’s derivative absence and exchange rates that favoured exports, while limiting imports.

The tighter market saw spot prices more closely aligned with the prevailing contract price than seen all year. Pipeline prices peaked at €1,040/tonne FD (free delivered) northwest Europe (NWE) in October. The October contract price (CP) had rolled over at €1,150/tonne.

Further declines on feedstock saw the November and December CPs decline by €90/tonne and €50/tonne respectively. The supply and demand imbalance gradually dissipated through November and into December as crackers returned from maintenance and remaining crackers were run hard, on healthy margins. Shell’s Moerdijk cracker, however, is expected to be offline until at least the third quarter of 2015.

Editor

Price history

Price history

ICIS collects pricing data on a wide range of chemical, energy and fertilizer products, including Ethylene. Our extensive experience in price reporting means we can offer you access to historical data dating back more than 20 years for certain commodities.

Our time series of pricing data enables you to build and model trends, to get a view of where markets might be heading. The data service includes charting functionality, allowing you to chart and download multiple data series for manipulation in your own internal models. You can also export data to Excel via the ICIS dashboard service.

Specialist reports

Specialist reports

ICIS pricing plant performance data (PPD) reports track activities at ethylene plants and crude oil refineries globally. These monthly reports* record total or nameplate capacity, operating rates as well as shutdowns and other developments at individual production facilities. The reports are available in a paper wallchart format or are downloadable from the ICIS pricing website as a CSV or excel file.

Data for the report month is collected at the end of the previous month. Therefore information published is an estimate of plant activity in the report month. This may vary from actual operations at the facility due to subsequent unscheduled shutdowns or alterations in production plans. Information is collected through direct contact with the plant operator. If that is not possible data is sourced from third parties with detailed industry knowledge.

Methodology

ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross-section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors from more than 250 reporters world-wide. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyer and seller, provide the foundation of our price assessments.

Our in-depth market knowledge drives our specialist focus, as we recognise the importance of individual market dynamics and not a one-size-fits-all approach.

Over 25 years of reporting on key chemicals markets, including Ethylene, has brought global recognition of our methodology as being unbiased, authoritative and rigorous in preserving our editorial integrity. Our global network of reporters in Houston, London, Singapore, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Mumbai, Perth and Moscow ensures unrivalled coverage of established and emerging markets.

Ethylene Methodology

Ethylene is a colourless, odourless, extremely flammable compressed gas. It is slightly soluble in water and soluble in liquid hydrocarbons. It reacts with strong oxidants causing fire and is anexplosion hazard..

Ethylene Europe Margin Report Methodology

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