Saturday, August 27, 2016

Hamilton, Cozart, Votto and WAR

Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, and Joey Votto, the Reds' usual 1-2-3 in the batting order (when all three are healthy) have been equally valuable so far this year. According to baseball-reference.com's Wins Above Replacement, they are tied for 3rd-most WAR on the team with 2.5 apiece. (Dan Straily has been the team MVP so far with 3.3 WAR, followed by Adam Duvall with 2.7.)

Now things are getting much tighter. While Votto has been Votto with the bat, his formerly solid defense at first base has been abysmal this year (at least according to WAR). Meanwhile, Cozart and Hamilton continue to be Gold Glove-caliber defenders.But wait, we're not done. WAR also includes a positional adjustment. An average hitter who plays shortstop is more valuable than an average hitter at first base. WAR accounts for this, so players at more offensive positions, like first base, left field, and DH, get a penalty, while players at more defensive positions, like shortstop and catcher, get a bonus.Player Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAAHamilton -14 +9 +2 +13 +2 +12Cozart -3 +1 -1 +10 +5 +12Votto +32 -2 -1 -12 -7 +10

With positional scarcity accounted for, Hamilton and Cozart close the gap and pass Votto, But they're all pretty even - each have been worth 10 or 12 runs more than the average MLB player.

Finally, to find true value, WAR adds eplacement runs to account for the difference between an average player and a "replacement" player. The theory being that if a player went down with an injury, how many runs (and wins) would you be giving up by replacing him with your best option from AAA or waivers? An average player over a full season is much more valuable than two weeks of an above-average player, while a replacement-level player is, by definition, worthless.

Replacement runs is a set number based on a player's playing time. Votto has been in the line-up more often than Hamilton and Cozart this year, so he gets slightly more Replacement Runs. Runs Above Average and Replacement Runs are added together to get Runs Above Replacement, which is then converted to Wins Above Replacement (roughly one win for every 10 runs):