I've been telling it many times and will repeat again. The rumors of Ukrainian default have been slightly exhaggerated. American analysts fail to realize that Ukraine's political circus is the best competitive advantage it could possibly have. You'd be amazed, given the degree of corruption there, how little corruption is actually taking place, because the three crooked political parties are deadlocked in a power struggle and none can steal as much as it wants to.

Gazprom is the greatest fool in this story. It has already lost more money than Ukraine ever stole from it, and will now lose even more. OK, never mind. Personally, I will be happy if Gazprom just files Ch 7, ridding Russia of one of the stupidest energy monsters ever. You can't get the country to the cenozoic era until several dinosaurs bite the dust.

I wouldn't bet against Putin. He's a diabolical genius. Russia is hurting bad right now but I think Putin and his hand picked team have a much better chance of pulling their country through this crisis and avoiding a repeat of what happened to them a decade ago.