Electrification and Autonomy in the Spotlight at ARPA-E Summit

At the 9th annual Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Summit this week, a host of promising technologies were showcased and discussed among speakers and panelists. Over the years, the gathering has provided a platform for new and emerging technologies in the energy space and, in particular, ventures that will increase fuel efficiency and reduce oil demand in the transportation sector. The Agency, which takes risks to “push the boundaries of energy innovation,” has dedicated funding over the years for projects to diversify the transportation fleet with better batteries for electric vehicles, supportive technologies for natural gas vehicles, and advanced biofuels.

Electrification and autonomy received a lot of attention at this year’s summit. An example ARPA-E’s work on autonomy was on display with its NEXTCAR project, a program launched to advance efficiency for connected and highly automated vehicles. Data and computer abilities from NEXTCAR are leveraged to utilize efficient routes and provide capacity to predict optimal vehicle and powertrain settings to lessen energy use by 20 percent. The Agency developed this program to study energy efficiency at a time when most of the debate surrounding autonomous vehicles has focused on safety.

Synergies between autonomy & electrification

On a panel entitled “The End of the Road for the Internal Combustion Engine?” SAFE’s Amitai Bin-Nun, Vice President of Autonomous Vehicles and Mobility Innovation, spoke of the synergies between autonomy and electrification and how the two can accelerate reductions in oil demand.

Crucially, self-driving technology can hasten the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). “Absent significant disruption from AVs, it will be more than 20 years before EVs are majority of light duty vehicles,” Bin-Nun said.

When vehicles are autonomous, connected and electric, the benefits could be large: less congestion, fewer crashes, smoother travel in cities, and reduced oil consumption.

In his presentation, entitled “ICE ICE Baby,” Bin-Nun pointed out that EVs are cheaper to operate than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, providing incentives for consumers and fleet operators to adopt them. When vehicles are autonomous, connected and electric, the benefits could be large: less congestion, fewer crashes, smoother travel in cities, and reduced oil consumption.

Despite the promise of electrification and autonomy, ICE vehicles are likely to remain relevant for decades to come, making it important that vehicle weight reduction, improvements in fuel, and increasing hybridization will reduce oil demand even before full-scale electrification occurs.

Electric aircrafts?

In another panel that centered on electrification and autonomy, speakers highlighted the potential of electric aviation. Sonja Glavaski, Program Director at ARPA-E, told the audience that they might think she’s “crazy” to have an optimistic outlook on electrification of airplanes, but development of commercial electric aircrafts is already occurring, albeit on a small scale. Lithium-ion batteries can now power small aircrafts with two seats that have flight endurance of three hours, and research is looking into electrifying larger planes that can fit 76 passengers and could be utilized for regional flights.

Lithium-ion batteries can now power small aircrafts with two seats that have flight endurance of three hours.

She acknowledged the numerous challenges for electric planes. Electrification of aviation has so far been limited by the energy density of batteries. Aircrafts will need more efficient propulsion and improved battery storage. Just as important, entire planes will have to be redesigned to reduce weight.

Even though it will be decades before electric aircraft are commercially viable on a large scale, changes could be profound. If engineers can improve the “lift-to-drag” ratio (the amount of lift produced by a wing or vehicle, divided by the aerodynamic drag it creates when moving through the air) by 20 percent for an electric flight of 500 miles, it could reduce energy consumption by a massive 35 percent. Some aviation companies expect to have hybrid electric planes for delivery early next decade, while also increasing their investments in autonomous capabilities.

Electrification in the aviation sector, should it succeed, would eventually have large implications for oil demand growth. Jet fuel demand is expected to grow sharply in coming decades with aviation travel forecast to double and limited fuel substitutes in this area.

Success of ARPA-E

ARPA-E has received a number of criticisms over the years because some funding has been injected into projects that ultimately failed. Chris Fall, principal deputy director of APRA-E, addressed this issue head-on in his speech at the summit, saying he wants to clearly define the Agency’s mission, show that it is not just “another grants program,” and demonstrate how it is different than other federal research projects.

“Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, it’s hard to find a more effective thing government has done than ARPA-E.”

Endeavors supported by ARPA-E are expected to take risks in order to accelerate innovation and assist high-risk, high-reward emerging technologies in energy. With the mission of focusing on early-stage technologies, ARPA-E sees some projects, whether in academia, national labs, start-ups, or private industry, not develop commercially. But the Agency has demonstrated its importance by providing pivotal grants to projects that would not be able to get funding elsewhere. Since its inception in 2009, ARPA-E, which is modeled after the Department of Defense’s DARPA program, has enticed some $2.6 billion in private-sector follow-up funding, and more than 70 companies have been formed as a result of the agency’s projects. Also reflecting the agency’s importance is the list of speakers at the conference over the years, which include Tesla’s Elon Musk, Microsoft’s Bill Gates, and FedEx Chairman and CEO Frederick W. Smith. “Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, it’s hard to find a more effective thing government has done than ARPA-E,” Smith told the audience in 2012.

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The Fuse is an energy news and analysis site supported by Securing America’s Future Energy. The views expressed here are those of individual contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the organization.

Issues in Focus

Safety Standards for Crude-By-Rail Shipments

A series of accidents in North America in recent years have raised concerns regarding rail shipments of crude oil. Fatal accidents in Lynchburg, Virginia, Lac-Megantic, Quebec, Fayette County, West Virginia, and (most recently) Culbertson, Montana have prompted public outcry and regulatory scrutiny.

2014 saw an all-time record of 144 oil train incidents in the U.S.—up from just one in 2009—causing a total of more than $7 million in damage.

The spate of crude-by-rail accidents has emerged from the confluence of three factors. First is the massive increase in oil movements by rail, which has increased more than three-fold since 2010. Second is the inadequate safety features of DOT-111 cars, particularly those constructed prior to 2011, which account for roughly 70 percent of tank cars on U.S. railroads. Third is the high volatility of oil produced from the Bakken and other shale formations, which makes this crude more prone towards combustion.

Of these three, rail car safety standards is the factor over which regulators can exert the most control. After months of regulatory review, on May 1, 2015, the White House and the Department of Transportation unveiled the new safety standards. The announcement also coincided with new tank car standards in Canada—a critical move, since many crude by rail shipments cross the U.S.-Canadian border. In the words DOT, the new rule:

Since the rule was announced, Republicans in Congress sought to roll back the provision calling for an advanced breaking system, following concerns from the rail industry that such an upgrade would be unnecessary and could cost billions of dollars. The advanced braking systems are required to be in place by 2021.

Democrats in Congress have argued that the new rules are insufficient to mitigate the danger. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) both issued statements arguing that the rules were insufficient and the timelines for safety improvements were too long.

The current industry standard car, the CPC-1232, came into usage in October 2011. These cars have half inch thick shells (marginally thicker than the DOT-111 7/16 inch shells) and advanced valves that are more resilient in the event of an accident. However, these newer cars were involved in the derailments and explosions in Virginia and West Virginia within the past year, raising questions about the validity of replacing only the DOT-111s manufactured before 2011.

Before the rule was finalized, early reports indicated that the rule submitted to the White House by the Department of Transportation has proposed a two-stage phase-out of the current fleet of railcars, focusing first on the pre-2011 cars, then the current standard CPC-1232 cars. In the final rule, DOT mandated a more aggressive timeline for retrofitting the CPC-1232 cars, imposing a deadline of April 1, 2020 for non-jacketed cars.

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DataSpotlight

The recent oil production boom in the United States, while astounding, has created a misleading narrative that the United States is no longer dependent on oil imports. Reports of surging domestic production, calls for relaxation of the crude oil export ban, labels of “Saudi America,” and the recent collapse in oil prices have created a perception that the United States has more oil than it knows what to do with.

This view is misguided. While some forecasts project that the United States could become a self-sufficient oil producer within the next decade, this remains a distant prospect. According to the April 2015 Short Term Energy Outlook, total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels per day in March, while total oil demand in the country is over 19 million barrels per day.

This graphic helps illustrate the regional variations in crude oil supply and demand. North America, Europe, and Asia all run significant production deficits, with the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Former Soviet Union are global engines of crude oil supply.