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Topic: Ranking Prospects (Read 31120 times)

Regarding Dermott specifically, and I'll admit this might be a bit of a tangent, I think that something that's happened in recent years is that there's been a sort of type of defenseman that's emerged who isn't a particularly great skater or the most offensively gifted or a huge hitter or the biggest guy in the world but who the numbers love and whose value can be a little hard to pin down just via the occasional game. Guys like Jake Muzzin, Anton Stralman, Vlasic and so on.

Reading between the lines on the various things they've said about the pick, I think it's pretty reasonable to say that our scouting staff, whose ability to uncover talent in the OHL semed to be their primary selling point for a while, think that Dermott can be that kind of guy and, for the most part, players like that who don't have the most easily identifiable skillset will probably be over looked by a lot of people who evaluate prospects. Stralman was a 7th rounder, Muzzin a 5th rounder, Vlasic a 2nd.

Personally, I was for Kylington in that spot but I'm as suceptible to being easily impressed by one or two obvious NHL qualities as anyone.

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Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon-Mark Twain

With Frederik, I think he’s the type of guy a lot of people who are big on statistics and analytics would say he hasn’t produced as much as some of these other guys. And that’s true, he hasn’t. Mike uses a phrase that some guys are scout players and some guys are coach players. Every coach wants a player like Frederik on their team. You watch him, his skillset, his skating, his ability to move with the puck a little bit out here on the ice, and it’s come so far. When you talk to Sheldon, when you talk to Mike, he’s one of the players they’re most excited about. I think everybody gets excited about the high end, flashy skilled guys, but with Sheldon and Mike – the people who are standing behind the bench – they get excited about him because he’s a guy you can trust out there in any circumstance. He’s great on faceoffs, he’s a big body, he plays extremely well defensively, he’s got a great stick defensively, able to get his stick on the puck and move it up the ice. He’s going to need to be able to be a little more assertive defensively and break out of our own zone quickly.

He’s a better player in that regard [advanced statistics]. There’s a couple players in this year’s draft that were eligible and then there’s a guy like Frederik, where people who are pure analytics people would say, “he’s not the type of guy you would suggest taking in that spot,” but if you go down to the shot attempts and the possession parts of it, he’s a guy that charts out extremely well. It’s just an interesting kind of paradox with where we’re at with hockey and advanced statistics. Frederik is a guy that’s a prime example, he’s a polarizing player in that regard. It’s interesting because baseball has gone through this already – people that have really strong defensive value – in hockey, how do we measure that? For us, he charts out really well in that regard.

Pronman's summary on the Leafs prospects from ESPN:In one year, the Maple Leafs have quickly turned their pipeline around from mediocre to elite on the backs of trades and a strong 2015 draft class. The question I'd ask is: "Who doesn't believe in the little people?" because their system is very small, albeit dynamic.

Travis Dermott is a guy I wasn't too sold on heading into the draft, but after talking to a lot of hockey people about him in the following months -- and after a great under-20 camp for Canada -- I've been sold. He is a skilled two-way defenseman, but his value is tilted more toward offense. He rarely forces plays, and makes good outlets under pressure. He's slightly undersized, but does battle hard for pucks and shows fine defensive IQ.

Nikita Soshnikov will need some time in North America before he's ready to make an NHL impact, but he's toolsy, including above-average or better speed and puck skills, though he has work to do to round out his game.

Stuart Percy (11th) had an impressive start to this past season when he got a look up on the big club and showed fine. He's a very smart and safe defenseman who can make plays at both ends and has some skill. However, he's a pretty bland prospect in terms of upside and raw talent. Josh Leivo (12th) is a tough player for me to read. He's shown strong play at times during the past two years, getting a few NHL stints. He has size and above-average playmaking skills, quality all-around hockey sense, but there isn't a real "wow" factor to his game. He may be too bland to be an everyday NHLer, but he also has enough good tools to potentially get onto a third line.

The Leafs have above-average pipeline depth as well, with forwards like Nikita Korostelev, Dmytro Timashov and Carter Verhaeghe being young players with upside. I also liked the two-way play of defenseman Viktor Loov when I saw the Marlies play this past season.

Noteworthy prospectFormer first-round pick Frederik Gauthier has been somewhat stagnant as a prospect after being taken at No. 21 overall in 2013. He's big, and has improved his skating, with his mainstays being his great checking and faceoff abilities. I once envisioned a player with average offensive upside combined with high-end defensive skills when he was an under-18 player, but that reality is starting to look pretty unlikely, given his lack of development offensively during the past two years.

2015-16 impactBoth Mitch Marner and William Nylander will get looks at camp. If you'd asked me a few months ago, I'd have said I expected Marner to go down for a season to the OHL, but after how dominant he was at the Canadian under-20 camp -- where his strength seems to have gotten better -- he could be a candidate to stick. Nylander will be an NHL candidate too, and if not, he could spend about another half season in the AHL before a call-up. At some point, whether due to injuries or the selling of veteran assets, I think you can expect an insurgence of young players during the season between Nylander, Connor Brown, Scott Harrington, Percy, Leivo and others.

I think Gauthier is a different phenomenon where he has one attribute that is easily identifiable and highly prized(size) and his supposed defensive ability was always what carried him to a first round grade.

You might know this and not me but I can't really think of a player who sort of fits the Gauthier mold in the NHL of being a primarily defensive center who the advanced stats guys love and will argue is much more valuable than traditional metrics show. In fact, the way I understand things, those guys tend to be players that possession numbers tend not to reflect well on as they're in their own zone a lot.

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Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon-Mark Twain

I think Gauthier is a different phenomenon where he has one attribute that is easily identifiable and highly prized(size) and his supposed defensive ability was always what carried him to a first round grade.

You might know this and not me but I can't really think of a player who sort of fits the Gauthier mold in the NHL of being a primarily defensive center who the advanced stats guys love and will argue is much more valuable than traditional metrics show. In fact, the way I understand things, those guys tend to be players that possession numbers tend not to reflect well on as they're in their own zone a lot.

I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers. I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players. I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics. But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.

I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers. I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players. I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics. But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.

Fair enough. Either way Gauthier isn't a guy who I think could be credibly said to have had his draft position largely influenced by how he might look to an analytically minded team and that was more my argument re: Dermott. That he might fit this new mold of defensemen without obvious attributes but who the numbers love. Gauthier seems to fit into a traditional concept of a 3rd line center pretty neatly.

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Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon-Mark Twain

I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers. I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players. I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics. But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.

Fair enough. Either way Gauthier isn't a guy who I think could be credibly said to have had his draft position largely influenced by how he might look to an analytically minded team and that was more my argument re: Dermott. That he might fit this new mold of defensemen without obvious attributes but who the numbers love. Gauthier seems to fit into a traditional concept of a 3rd line center pretty neatly.

Yeah I think Gauthier was ranked based on scouts viewing of him, there were constant comments about his positioning defensively being so far advanced for instance.

Ideally the team will have traditional scouts having their expertise augmented by more statistics to enable them to do their job better. I think you'll see more of the Dermott type players popping up in earlier rounds as their skill sets start to be noticed or targeted earlier.

I don't have a full read on Dermott yet, but he sounds quite a bit like Stuart Percy in that he plays a very cerebral game with simple, efficient movement.

Gauthier I've heard more about now, and I think he's one of those players that most traditional and mainstream advanced stats will undersell because of his assigned role (stats being largely offense oriented). He didn't shoot much (only 1.9 shots per game) in his draft year as a rookie in the Q, but still put up near-PPG numbers as a shutdown centre.

His recent playoff performance was eye opening. I recently learned that he quarterbacked in football to a fairly high level before committing to hockey, which could explain a lot of his team-focus, on-ice vision, structured play, and more recently those feathered passes to infiltrate the offensive zone.

I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.

I agree Herman, may be better to have him for at least 1/2 a years start as the first line Centre of the Solar Bears and get a ton of ice time and then bring him up at some point. For the first time in eternity we seem to have a glut of Centres.

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