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The Breakfast Briefing

The Dow has risen every day this month, a streak that is finally starting to get people excited again about the stock market.

A few more days of gains and worries about irrational exuberance will once again become an issue.

The Dow’s 10-day stretch of gains matches its longest winning streak since 1996, and ranks as one of the lengthiest in the blue-chip index’s history. The record is 14 up days in a row in 1897, according to WSJ Market Data Group. There has also been a 13-day streak in 1987, a 12-day run, five 11-day streaks and one other 10-day rally throughout the Dow’s history.

In other words, the current run is in fairly exclusive territory.

This rally has also coincided with a jump in optimism among mom-and-pop investors. The latest American Association of Individual Investors’ survey showed bullish sentiment this week notched its biggest weekly gain in almost three years.

The gauge, which measures investor expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, spiked 14.4 percentage points to 45.4%, a six-week high and above the historical average of 39%.

Charles Rotblut, vice president at AAII, tried to downplay the newfound wave of optimism. “Though this week’s spike in bullish sentiment is large, it primarily represents a reversion to the mean,” he said, while noting bullish sentiment two weeks ago fell to its lowest level since November 2010.

Still, the bulls may be on to something. The Dow rose 10% in the three months following its last 10-day winning streak that ended in November 1996. The blue chips were up 19% one year after that streak.

Contrarians like to point out that overly bullish sentiment raises warning flags, as extreme levels of optimism tend to coincide with market tops.

The Dow has notched consecutive records in each of the last eight trading days and has already risen 11% this year. The S&P 500 sits just two points from achieving its own record milestone for the first time since Oct. 9, 2007.

While worries that the market has gone too far too fast aren’t farfetched, Rotblut said enthusiasm about stocks still remains relatively tempered.

“The current level of bullish sentiment is not excessive,” Rotblut said, while noting investors still remain leery that stocks are overbought and due for a correction.

At least in the short term, it’s hard to see what gets in the way of this rally train. Then again, maybe Friday’s not the best day to ignore warning signs, Caesar.

Morning MarketBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 44 B.C., Roman “dictator for life” Julius Caesar was assassinated by a group of conspirators during a trip to the Senate in what became known as the Ides of March.

-Steven Russolillo

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Stocks to Watch

Carnival is expected to report first-quarter earnings of 2 cents a share, according to a consensus survey by Thomson Reuters. The cruise company is in the process of flying passengers back to Florida after one of its ships, the Carnival Dream, lost power while dockside in St. Maarten, according to media reports.

Hibbett Sports is projected to post fourth-quarter earnings of 71 cents a share. Shares of the sporting goods retailer are up about 2% so far this year.

Brown Shoe is forecast to report fourth-quarter earnings of 8 cents a share. “While we believe business trends have improved, the bar is likely to be set higher in fiscal year 2013. We expect management to remain somewhat cautious with initial guidance given more difficult first-half comparisons and a slower to evolve wholesale turnaround,” Christopher Svezia, an analyst at Susquehanna, said in a note.

Credit Suisse Dials Back on Hedge Funds: “Credit Suisse will stop taking new stakes in hedge funds and other investment managers through an affiliate, marking the latest maneuver by a big bank in response to stricter rules on risk.”

Ahead of the Tape: Inflation Measure Makes Americans Cynics: “Those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing are said to be cynics. Americans can be forgiven for being a bit cynical, though, when it comes to prices. Their own cost of living rarely seems to be as low as official statistics claim it is.”

Fidelity’s ETF Fee Spurs a Backlash: “Some financial advisers said they would stop using Fidelity Investments’ trading platform to buy certain exchange-traded funds because of high fees that kick in when investors sell.”

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