Thirty-five years of speaking for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news organization. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Post-Masters’ Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.

This report is broken into three sections:

An analysis of crime data for recent years

FBI and National Crime Survey data plus links

Additional data from Gallup and other sources offering a national perspective on crime

An Analysis of Crime Data for Recent Years

Crime Politicized

It’s unfortunate that an objective analysis of crime in America has become a political issue with major newspapers and some criminologists insisting that violent crime is not increasing while additional media outlets and criminologists insist that it is. We attempt to offer an objective analysis below.

Record Lows for Crime?

The bottom line is that violent and property crimes are still at record lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years via FBI data (2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016 as examples). There have been additional increases since 1990-the rate of violent crime in the US increased in 2005 and 2006 (via FBI data) but the index returned to decreases in 2007.

Data from the National Crime Survey also state that we are at record lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Data from Gallup suggests that crime increased to historical highs in 2016 only to fall considerably in 2017. See Crime in America for a partial explanation of the difference between Gallup and National Crime Survey data.

An explanation of crimes reported to law enforcement (FBI) and a measure of all crime (National Crime Survey) is below.

Is America Entering a New Era of Increasing Violence?

Possibly. Violent crime (and fear of crime per Gallup) is increasing throughout the United States. We predicted the increase for 2015 based on crimes reported to police, and we correctly predicted another increase in 2016. According to FBI data, it’s rare for the rate of violent crime to increase for one year only. Preliminary data for the first six months of 2017, however, indicate a small decrease (0.8 percent) in violent crime.

Media reports from a variety of cities in the US indicate continued growth in homicides and violent crime (examples below).

National Crime Survey

Our claim that crime is increasing is tempered, however, by data from the National Crime Survey stating that violent crime rates remain flat in 2015 while property crime rates decreased.

Per the National Crime Survey for 2015, raw numbers of violent crime decreased from 5,359,570 to 5,006,620. Serious stranger violence raw numbers decreased from 930,690 to 690,550.

But the news from the National Crime Survey is moderated by the fact that violent and property crime decreased both in 2014 and 3013, thus violent crime rates being flat indicates the possibility of future increases.

The National Crime Survey issued new numbers for 2016 (released in December of 2017) indicating increases in rates and totals of violent and property crime “but” because of changes to the counties sampled and overall methodology, the Bureau of Justice Statistics stated that there was no measurable difference in rates of violent or property crime from 2015 to 2016,” see Crime in America.

FBI-First Six Months of 2017-Small Decrease in Violent Crime

The FBI announced a reduction in violent crime of 0.8 percent for crime in the US for the first half of 2017. Murder increased 1.5 percent, robberies decreased 2.2 percent and aggravated assaults were flat (0.1 percent decrease).

FBI-2016-Violent Crime Increases

Preliminary figures indicate that law enforcement agencies throughout the nation showed an overall increase of 5.3 percent in the number of violent crimes brought to their attention for the first 6 months of 2016 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2015.

But for all of 2016, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased for the second straight year, rising 4.1 percent in 2016 when compared with 2015 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 1.3 percent, marking the 14th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2016 statistics show the estimated rate of violent crime was 386.3 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the estimated rate of property crime was 2,450.7 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate rose 3.4 percent compared with the 2015 rate, and the property crime rate declined 2.0 percent.

After two years of decline (reported crime was mostly flat in 2014 with a slight decrease), the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased 3.9 percent in 2015 when compared with 2014 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 2.6 percent, marking the thirteenth straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2015 statistics show the estimated rate of violent crime was 372.6 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the property crime rate was 2,487.0 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate rose 3.1 percent compared with the 2014 rate, and the property crime rate declined 3.4 percent.

Nationwide, there were an estimated 7,993,631 property crimes. The estimated numbers for two of the three property crimes show declines when compared with the previous year’s estimates. Burglaries dropped 7.8 percent, larceny-thefts declined 1.8 percent, but motor vehicle thefts rose 3.1 percent.

Reports on Homicides and Violent Crime

Gun Deaths Up 12 Percent in 2017

Gun deaths are up more than 12 percent in the first 200 days of 2017 compared with last year, reports the Washington Post. Firearm injuries are up nearly 8 percent. The number of children under the age of 12 shot by a gun has increased by 16 percent, while instances of defensive gun use are up nearly 30 percent. President Trump promised in his inaugural address that “American carnage stops right here and stops right now.” But data from the Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit that tracks shootings, show that the carnage has only gotten worse. In the first 200 days of 2014, the Archive’s team of researchers tallied 6,206 gun deaths, not counting suicides. Three years later that figure has jumped by well over one-third, to 8,539 fatalities.

Chicago, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Memphis Murders Up Sharply.

Murder rates in four big cities have returned to levels not seen since the 1990s, an alarming surge that police officials are struggling to slow as crime nationally remains at near-historic lows, the Wall Street Journal reports. Homicide data since 1985 for the 35 largest cities shows that four—Chicago, Baltimore, Milwaukee and Memphis.—have in the past two years approached or exceeded the records set a quarter-century ago, when many cities were plagued by gang wars and a booming crack trade. Twenty-seven of the 35 largest cities saw per capita homicide rates rise since 2014, though most are still relatively low compared with 1990s levels. New York and Los Angeles, the two biggest cities, are experiencing long-term drops in murders.

Murders in Chicago last year rose to their highest rate since 1996, with 27.8 homicides for every 100,000 residents. Memphis equaled its highest rate last year in an FBI database that goes back to 1985, at 32 murders per 100,000 residents. The pace has continued in some places in the first seven weeks this year, with 47 people killed in Baltimore, putting the city on track for one of the highest annual rates since at least 1970. In Chicago, there were 330 shootings so far as of Friday, compared with 324 over the same period last year. In Milwaukee, 17 people have been killed, compared with nine at this point last year. Wall Street Journal

Murder 2016: Rise Continues

Last year’s dramatic rise in the national murder total appears to be continuing in 2016, but this year’s rise so far is slower than last year’s and is more concentrated in a few big cities, crime analyst Jeff Asher writes on FiveThirtyEight.com. Last month, the FBI released data showing that the estimated number of murders rose 10.8 percent nationwide last year. Preliminary evidence suggests that the number of murders is up about 10.5 percent so far this year in big cities for which data is available; last year, the number went up 14.7 percent in that same group of cities, Asher says.

So far, the 2016 increase appears concentrated in just a few big cities. Chicago, in particular, has reported a dramatic rise in the number of murders; through early October, the city counted 536, up from 378 at the same time a year ago, a 42 percent increase. Orlando has also seen a big jump in murders, due largely to the Pulse nightclub attack that killed 49 people in June. Together, Chicago and Orlando account for close to half of the net increase in murders in cities for which data is available. Excluding those two cities, murder would be up 6.3 percent this year in the remaining big cities in Asher’s data set. Meanwhile, several cities, including Milwaukee, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, have seen substantial decreases in the number of murders so far this year after experiencing large rises in 2015. Seven of the 15 cities that saw the greatest rise in the number of murders in 2016 are in the Southwest. That’s a big switch from a year ago, when the worst big-city rises were spread relatively evenly across the U.S.FiveThirtyEight.com

U.S. Murder Total Rose at Fastest Pace Since 1990

Murder totals rose across the U.S. last year at the fastest pace since 1990, according to data released by the FBI yesterday. There were an estimated 15,696 murders in 2015, 1,532 more than in 2014 and the most recorded in a calendar year since 2008, reports FiveThirtyEight. The report provides the first reliable, nationwide figures on an issue that has emerged as a major topic in this year’s presidential campaign. The rate of other forms of crime, including violent crime, remained near the historic lows achieved in 2013.

The increase in murder was remarkably widespread. Of the 82 cities with populations over 250,000 in 2014 or 2015, 52 experienced a rise in murder last year; murder fell in only 26. (Four cities stayed the same.) Murder rose by double digits in 29 big cities last year while dropping by double digits in just four of them. Three cities (Indianapolis, Louisville, and Omaha) more murders in 2015 than in any of the last 40 years. Murder rose in cities run by both political parties. Murder rose in 63 percent of the big cities with a Democratic mayor (33 of 52) and 85 percent of those led by a Republican (17 of 20); the two sets of cities saw murders rise at roughly the same pace. The increase pushed the murder rate — the number of killings per 100,000 people — up to 4.9, from 4.4 in 2014. That came after nearly two decades of continuous decline in the national murder rate; 2014’s murder rate was the lowest since the FBI began keeping the statistic in 1960. FiveThirtyEight

Homicides-56 Cities

According to recent US Department of Justice funded data measuring murders in 56 cities, “…the homicide rise in 2015 in the nation’s large cities was real and, while not unprecedented, comparatively large. The average homicide increase over 2014 in the top ten was 33.3 percent, compared with a 16.8-percent rise for the sample as a whole.”

“One-year increases of this magnitude in the nation’s large cities, although not unknown, are very rare.”

Source: Documenting and Explaining the 2015 Homicide Rise: Research Directions-DOJ.

Homicides as an Indicator

Homicides are used by criminologists and criminal justice professionals as an indicator of overall violent crime, and crime in general. Generally speaking, crime rises and falls collectively. Based on historical FBI data, if homicides increase, it’s probable that violent crime (and all crime) will increase over time.

The Increase in 2015 and 2016 Was Predictable

Violent crime (based on crime reported to law enforcement) increased for 2015 which was very predictable. There were media reports in multiple cities in 2015 that homicides and violent crime were increasing.

Media reports of increases in most cities continued for 2016.

Some media reports suggest that the same is occurring in 2017 although the FBI reported a small decrease (0.8 percent) in violent crime for the first six months of 2017. Homicides increased during this period.

Yes, It’s Confusing

Decreases in 2014 and 2013 from both national reports (FBI and National Crime Survey) and increases in crime found in National Crime Survey data (for 2011 and 2012), and 2012, 2015 and 2016 FBI reports (violent crime increases) create mixed results and needs to be watched carefully, but the trend over decades is clearly down, while increasing in recent years (per reported crimes). To add to the confusion, National Crime Survey data for 2016 indicated increases in violent and property crimes but suggested that their new sampling methodology was responsible for the increases.

We predicted that violent crime would increase in 2015 and 2016 based on crime reported to police. Preliminary data for the first six months of 2017, however, indicate a small decrease (0.8 percent) in violent crime.

Fear of Crime

We note that Americans’ level of concern about crime and violence is at its highest point in 15 years, says a new Gallup survey. Fifty-three percent of U.S. adults say they personally worry “a great deal” about crime and violence, an increase of 14 percentage points since 2014. Gallup said the figure is the highest the firm has measured since March 2001. Link below.

FBI and National Crime Survey Data Plus Links

Violent crime decreased by 0.8 percent for the first six months of 2017

Violent crime increased in 2016 (as predicted by this site)

Violent crime increased in 2015 (as predicted by this site)

Violent and property crime decreased in 2013 and 2014

Aggravated assault and rape increased in 2014

Lowest murder rate since 1960 but violent crime increased in 2012

National Crime Headlines: National Crime Survey:

Violent crime rates and totals increased in 2016 but the data was compromised by methodological considerations

Violent crime flat for 2015

Violent and property crime decline in 2014

Violent and property crime decline in 2013

The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012

FBI-Crimes Reported to Police-Summary of Recent Years

2017: The FBI recently announced a reduction in violent crime of 0.8 percent for crime in the US for the first half of 2017. Murder increased 1.5 percent, robberies decreased 2.2 percent and aggravated assaults were flat (0.1 percent decrease).

2016: For all of 2016, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased for the second straight year, rising 4.1 percent in 2016 when compared with 2015 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 1.3 percent, marking the 14th consecutive year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2016 statistics show the estimated rate of violent crime was 386.3 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the estimated rate of property crime was 2,450.7 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate rose 3.4 percent compared with the 2015 rate, and the property crime rate declined 2.0 percent.

2015: After two years of decline (reported crime was mostly flat in 2014 with a slight decrease), the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased 3.9 percent in 2015 when compared with 2014 data, according to FBI figures. Property crimes dropped 2.6 percent, marking the thirteenth straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2015 statistics show the estimated rate of violent crime was 372.6 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the property crime rate was 2,487.0 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate rose 3.1 percent compared with the 2014 rate, and the property crime rate declined 3.4 percent.

Nationwide, there were an estimated 7,993,631 property crimes. The estimated numbers for two of the three property crimes show declines when compared with the previous year’s estimates. Burglaries dropped 7.8 percent, larceny-thefts declined 1.8 percent, but motor vehicle thefts rose 3.1 percent.

2014: The FBI reports preliminary figures indicating that law enforcement agencies throughout the nation showed an overall decrease of 4.6 percent in the number of violent crimes for the first 6 months of 2014 when compared with figures reported for the same time in 2013. The violent crime category includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The number of property crimes in the United States from January to June of 2014 decreased 7.5 percent when compared with data for the same time period in 2013.

However, when the FBI released their full report for 2014, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased 0.2 percent in 2014 when compared with 2013 data. Aggravated assault and rapes increased. Property crimes decreased by 4.3 percent, marking the 12th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined. Based on the full report in 2014, and with endless news reports documenting increases in homicide and violence in cities throughout the country, we predicted an increase in violent crime for 2015. See Crime in America.

2013: Per the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2013 decreased 4.4 percent when compared with 2012 figures, and the estimated number of property crimes decreased 4.1 percent. There were an estimated 1,163,146 violent crimes reported to law enforcement last year, along with an estimated 8,632,512 property crimes. Property crimes decreased 4.1 percent in 2013, marking the 11th straight year the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2013 statistics show the estimated rate of violent crime was 367.9 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the property crime rate was 2,730.7 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate declined 5.1 percent compared to the 2012 rate, while the property crime rate declined 4.8 percent.

2012: The FBI estimated that in 2012 the number of violent crimes increased 0.7 percent. However, property crimes decreased 0.9 percent, marking the tenth straight year of declines for these offenses, collectively.

The rate for homicide remained at historic lows, 4.7 percent per 100,000 in 2012.

National Crime Survey-Summary of Recent Years

From 2015 to 2016, the Bureau of Justice Statistics states that there was no measurable difference in rates of violent or property crime. Violent and property crime did increase, but BJS suggests that the change was due to a new methodology.

In 2016, U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced 5.7 million violent victimizations—a rate of 21.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

From 2014 to 2015, there was no statistically significant change in the overall rate of violent crime (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault), per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).

The rate of violent victimization was 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2015, which was significantly lower than the rate in 1993 (79.8 per 1,000), the oldest year of data currently available from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).

1993 to 2014, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 20.1 per 1,000.

The overall property crime rate (which includes household burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft) decreased from 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2013 to 118.1 victimizations per 1,000 in 2014.

In 2013, the overall violent crime rate declined slightly from 26.1 to 23.2 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. residents from 2012 to 2013, per the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The violent crime rate had declined for nearly two decades before increasing in 2011 and 2012.

The overall property crime rate, which includes burglary, theft and motor vehicle theft, also decreased after two consecutive years of increases. From 2012 to 2013, the rate declined from 155.8 to 131.4 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. households.

In 2012, for the second consecutive year, violent and property crime rates increased. The overall violent crime rate (which includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault) rose from 22.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2011 to 26.1 in 2012

The latest data involving crimes reported to law enforcement agencies (through the FBI) includes

Gallup and Additional Data Offering a National Perspective on Crime

Per Gallup (November, 2016) Americans’ direct experience with crime is at a 16-year high, consistent with a gradual increase — from 22% in 2001 to 29% today — in the percentage saying that they or a household member was the victim of a robbery, vandalism or violent crime in the past year, see Gallup-Crime.

Per Gallup-household crime was at its highest point since 2001.

But Gallup then offered their November 2017 report which addressed personal and household crime, Asked about their own experiences rather than the situation for their household as a whole, 15% of U.S. adults say they have been the victim of at least one of the crimes.

For personal crime, that is an insignificant drop of one percentage point from last year’s 16%.

Twenty-two percent of Americans say a conventional crime was committed against their household in the previous 12 months, the lowest proportion since 2001, see Gallup-Crime-2017.

So within two years, we have both the highest and lowest measures of household crime but an insignificant drop in personal crime.

Gallup offered a report in 2016 on, “In U.S., Concern About Crime Climbs to a 15-Year High,” see Gallup-Concern.

In 2017, Gallup said that 68 percent say crime is increasing in the US, down from 70 percent the previous year, see Gallup-2017.

In 2017, Gallup said that three in 10 Americans are afraid to walk alone at night in an area within a mile of where they live. This ties the lowest level of concern since Gallup first asked this question in 1965 and is substantially below the high point of 48% recorded in 1982, see Gallup-Walking Near Home.

The average person simply wants to know if crime went up or down, but the answer is confusing due to two measures used (victimization surveys via the National Crime Survey and crimes reported to police via the Uniform Crime Report from the FBI), and reports throughout the United States that homicide and violent crime is increasing. A variety of data is presented here for your consideration.

Both the National Crime Survey and the Uniform Crime Report are products of two agencies within the US Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The two measures are explained below.

There are an endless number of violent crimes that are not reported (thus the need for the National Crime Survey) because participants see the event as a private matter, or not serious enough to report to the police. For example, a friend could hit you with a beer bottle (a violent crime involving a weapon) but you have no intention of reporting it to law enforcement. But if you were contacted by the National Crime Survey, they will ask if you were the victim of an act of violence or if anyone used a weapon or object to attack you.

Most violent crimes are not reported to police, thus the majority of violent crime victims do not want police involvement, or do not see it as being in their best interest to report the incident, or are too afraid to report.

Some simplify the two measures by suggesting that crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI are a measure of events crime victims deem serious (serious enough to enough to report) versus a measure of all crime (regardless of significance) through the National Crime Survey. Obviously, this observation does not include fear of reporting crime.

There is, however, a third source for crime information from Gallup (see below) accessing individuals, households, and fear of crime. But ninety percent of the crime discussion focuses on the two reports from the Department of Justice.

Note that the FBI is transitioning from the Uniform Crime Reports to the National Incident-Based Reporting System which will provide more detail and higher quality information on criminal activity in the United States. The NIBRS is slated to replace the traditional Uniform Crime Reports by January 1, 2021. See the links at the bottom of this article.

Source for Articles

We rely on “The Crime Report” for many of the articles included here, see The Crime Report.

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