Monday, November 17, 2008

The following is a running list of MLAs, past-candidates, and others who have endorsed the three candidates running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party, which is being held through a mail in ballot (results to be released on December 13). I have emailed each leadership campaign requesting a list for this post, the following are what I have received to date.

Agreed. Interesting how few former/current Liberal MLAs are endorsing anyone. For someone at a relative disadvantage by not currently having a seat, interesting that Moe has two of the 2004 MLA vintage, while Taylor has none.

I've yet to hear a good reason why membership sales were cut off so soon (a month before the vote).

Isn't one of the side benefits of a leadership campaign to energize the base and sign up new members? In the Calgary Herald, a spokesperson was quoted as saying the ALP had 4,000 at the start of the campaign, and over 6,000 by the time membership sales were cut off.

Mark Norris - contender number SIX in the PC leadership race - sold more memberships than the entire current membership list, if the above numbers are accurate.

At $10 a piece, the sale of 10,000 memberships would raise $100,000, money that would be welcomed to reduce the party's debt.

Jeez, even as a loyal PC, the operational decisions of the ALP frustrate me. If they were worried about an outside group hijacking their process (which would be completely unfounded), cutting sales off a month before is hardly protection against it.

Kent Hehr, and this is not a comment on his disability, has been a terrible MLA so far. His constant harping on gun crimes in Question Period was an embarassment. He would ask the exact same thing three times in a row, day in and day out all through the two sessions so far. I understand gun crime was a major issue for him, given how it has affected his life, but there are other important things going on in Alberta. Why Taft lets Hehr have the second set of questions every day blows my mind. Being a good MLA means persuing more than just your own pet issues...

I too was surprised by how early the membership sales cut-off was. Just as I did my research and picked a leader I thought I could support (my choice was Swann), I found out it was too late to buy a membership.

So much for growing their party. This is the worst excuse for a leadership selection process ever. The new leader will have no mandate to lead.

The membership sales were cut off early because of the mail in ballot format. They are using mail in ballots to reduce the cost. They literally don't have money to spend. Not many $30,000 oil company donations coming into the Liberal coffers after the royalty review.

Unlike the Conservative Party of Canada, the Liberals and PCs in Alberta depend more on corporate donations than individual donations.

Let me be the first in this discussion to congratulate Mo on perhaps the most inane endorsement ever. Edmonton's poet laureate? Are you kidding, Dave? Did his campaign really send that in response to your question? Did I lose a few months and it's April 1 already?

Just a couple more things - Mark Norris was not number six - that was Victor Doerksen. And, did the candidates sell 6,000 new memberships or 2,000? Either way, the ALP appears to be in more serious trouble thsn I thought. I'm pretty sure that there were constituencies where the PCs sold 6,000 memberships in their leadership race in 2006.

Kent Hehr happens to be the Shadow Minister of Justice in the Alberta Liberal Caucus, and crime happened to poll as the top issue in Edmonton and, especially, Calgary all summmer and fall long. Arguing that Hehr only cares about crime is like saying Luke Ouellette only cares about Transportation. Caucuses divide up areas of focus.

Hehr just took on Affordable Housing and Urban Affairs: I suspect the Tories will like reminders that homelessness has actually gone up in Lethbridge, Edmonton and Calgary in year 1 of the 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness as much as they like hearing they dropped the ball on adequately funding police officers.

That poet laureate is extremely respected and very well connected in Edmonton, unlike Calgary perhaps where these things don't register. Plus, you should actually read the endorsement. It was talking about Mo's character and work ethic, not about poetry or art which I am sure Mo gets as well.

Lastly, rumour has it Hugh M. and Bridget P. are both quietly working for Mo. How effective they'll be, I don't know!

No one from the previous caucus will ever endorse Taylor and this actually says a lot if anyone is paying attention. The guy wasn't a team player and won't likely start now. He scares me and I am not usually easily scared.

Here's my forecast. Dr. Swann sold the most new memberships, followed by Elsalhy, and Dave Taylor comes third. Despite the endorsements from former candidates who Cory Hogan et al promised their nominations were secure for the next go, most Calgary liberals will vote for Swann and most in Edmonton will opt for Elsalhy.

Taylor will be eliminated first and his votes redistributed. This will provide the drama for an otherwise low key race. How his people marked their ballots for #2 choice will be interesting to watch. I can't wait.

Oh and by the way, Kent Hehr lost any credibility he had when he endorsed Taylor over Swann. Swann and Chase supported Hehr, politically and otherwise, and Swann used to drive him around even. Yet, he stabs him in the back and goes with the heir apparent. Kent is an opportunist but lacks political judgement. He will pay for this mistake the same way Harvey Cenaiko and Ron Stevens did when they backed Dinning over Stelmach. It's the nature of the game. I love it. And Dinning was the heir apparent too, LOL!

And, regardless of how this turns out, your post is a lot angrier than most Alberta Liberals feel. There's nothing personal about this race, though I can see "Anonymous" individuals are hoping there is. All these guys respect each other and they'll work together regardless of who is leader.

Actually Norris WAS six, by my count. Dinning, Morton and Stelmach were top 3, followed by Oberg, then Hancock, then Norris. Doerksen and McPherson rounded out seven and eight, with differences of less than 150 votes.

But that is irrelevant. Norris had 6,789 votes, so one can reasonably assume he sold more than 6,000 memberships. I worked on Stelmach's campaign and we sold more than 15,000 before Vote 1, and more before Vote 2.

There were 144,000 votes cast (roughly) in the second round, so more than that many memberships were sold. At $5 a pop, that was nearly $750,000. If I recall, $2 went to the constituency of sale and $3 went to the party to cover cost of the campaign infrastructure (polling stations, etc.)

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The opinions expressed on this blog represent my own and not those of my employer or any organization I may be affiliated with.In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This blog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various ideas running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today.

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Who is Dave Cournoyer? I am a writer, blogger, communicator, occasional media pundit, political watcher, & proud life-long Albertan. I studied Political Science at the University of Alberta and have served as Vice-President (External) of the U of A Students' Union, Chair of the Council of Alberta University Students, and communications coordinator for Alberta's official opposition party.