For much of the winter here in Colorado, we’ve been hearing about below average snowpack in the mountains with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing for much of the state. This trend finally gave way to a more productive storm track and cooler temperatures in February.

After the 15th warmest January statewide on record, February was fairly dull with the 60th warmest February in the 118-year record, which is pretty much right in the middle of the distribution. The Eastern Plains and foothills ranged from right around average to 10F degrees below normal.

The cold bullet in Adams, Arapahoe, Elbert and Lincoln counties that was 8 to 10 degrees below normal is mainly a symptom of persisting snowcover from the big snow in early February, keeping daytime temperatures much below average. The West Slope (and mainly the northwest corner of the state) was again above average for February, in the range of 2 to 8 degrees above the normal for that part of the state. The small bullet of warmer than normal temperatures in western Grand county is due to lack of snowcover in that area driving temperatures higher than normal.

Precipitation was also more widespread and plentiful than in January. February ranked as the 20th wettest statewide out of 118 years of data. While the mountains were glad to see snow return, they received right around normal for the month, with the western valleys falling short. The northeast plains were the big winners in February with much of that area receiving over 300 percent of their normal for February. We all know that one month is much too short of a time scale to look at in terms of water supply, so hydrologists look at what we term water year precipitation. The water year starts October 1 and ends September 30th and tracks the mountain snow accumulation and runoff seasons.

The water year puts our hydrologic cycle in a better perspective than the calendar year. For the water year, the northern and central mountains are below average, less than 90% of average in most areas, while the eastern plains are at or above average for the water year. This is in stark contrast to last year when our plains were in drought conditions while the mountains were still building record snowpack. What a difference a year makes.

Take a look at last year’s March 1 basin snowpack compared to this year. The Yampa/White, Colorado, Gunnison, North and South Platte snowpack were all much above average at this point in the water year, while this year many basins are struggling to approach near-average conditions. The only basin in the state above 90% of normal is the South Platte, and that is because this winter the storms have favored the east slope over the west slope with many low pressure systems coming across the four corners and bringing upslope conditions to the east, rather than the Pacific storm tracks which favor the Western Slope.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is also tracking our low snowpack this season. We now have short term drought on the Western Slope into the mountains to accompany the long-term drought in the Arkansas and Rio Grande basins which has persisted since November 2010.
Meteorological spring is now upon us. Let’s hope it brings some moisture with it!

Colorado State University aims to find out how much of a tole the city’s rush hour traffic fumes take on the people involved.

This summer the school will put out a call for 150 volunteers to sit in traffic – on two wheels or more — in the most congested parts of Colorado’s fourth-largest city.

Volunteers will carry a small air-pollution monitor in a backpack with miniature sensors, including GPS, pulse monitors and micro accelerometers to measure movement around the city throughout the day, according to CSU.

The data from the five-year study will make up a map of air-pollution hot spots and the immediate effect traffic exhaust has on commuters’ health.

The study, funded with $2.5 million from the National Institutes of Health, will help those who travel make better choices for their health, while helping Fort Collins and other cities across the country think about traffic in terms of hearts and lungs.

CSU has become a nation-leading creator and repository of weather and air-quality research. Air pollution, unfortunately, plays a big role in our beautiful skies, green mountains and clean water, as well as contributing to the early deaths of thousands of Coloradoans each year.

In January, the Post told you about a CSU-led initiative to help feedlot managers, ranchers and farmers keep their fumes in check. The timing is vital, as Weld County looks to potentially triple its dairy herd with another to 60,000 to 100,000 cows to supply a new cheese plant in Greeley, You can read more about the National Air Quality Site Assessment Tool here.

Just as fumes choke humans, ammonia from livestock operations are blamed – along with urban pollution – for slowly poisoning the high mountain ecosystem in Rocky Mountain National Park, depositing nitrogen in forests and streams.

These studies and more are in addition to the Colorado Climate Center at CSU’s Foothills Campus, the home base of state Climatologist Nolan Doesken, president of the American Association of State Climatologists from 2008 to 2010.

To even jokingly call CSU the state’s cow college is aiming far below all the facts.

It is no secret that the month of January was warm and dry across the state. What everyone always wants to know is: how warm and dry was it? And have we ever experienced anything like this before? The answer is it was pretty warm statewide, ranking as the 15th-warmest January out of a 118-year data record, tying the years 1900 and 1954. So, January temperatures were not “out of the ordinary,” but ranking 15th out of 118 years is pretty darn warm.

A statewide number is a little deceiving though, combining mountainous areas, western valleys and the Eastern Plains all together in one big pot of numbers. A better way to look at the temperatures would be spatially and as a departure from what we consider to be “normal.” The “normal” is based on the most recent three consecutive decades (or 30 years) and are updated every 10 years. The current “normal” period is 1981-2010.

The figure below shows the spatial component of our above-normal temperatures in January. You can see the Front Range and Eastern Plains were exceptionally warm for January measuring temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above the normal!

The mountains and valleys west of the Continental Divide were not exempt from this warm period and saw temperatures in the range of 2 to 8 degrees above normal, particularly the northwest portion of the state in the Yampa and White rivers basins, where temperatures 6 to 8 degrees above normal were seen. The only exception to the above-average January was the western San Luis Valley in the southern part of the state, where they were right around normal for the month to a bit below normal and this was mainly due to snow cover on the ground that drives down temperatures by reflecting away the sun’s radiation.

So, now that we know it was warm, but not the warmest we’ve ever experienced, what about precipitation? Normal precipitation for January varies greatly across our state. The mountainous areas normally pick up about 1 inch of moisture per week, while the plains in January are just downright dry receiving on average less than a half-inch of moisture for the whole month! So, what about January 2012? Statewide, we were the 20th driest out of 118 years and tied with 1984.

The graphic below shows how precipitation shook out across the state. The plains and San Luis Valley, while normally dry for this time of year, were still much below average receiving 0 to 50 percent of normal precipitation, but it sure was nice not shoveling, right? Well, unless you live just south of Denver, where they saw precipitation right around normal for January, thanks to just a few storms early in the month.

The central mountains and extending southwest to the San Juans received right around normal precipitation for the month. The northwest corner of the state, where last winter brought record snowpack, was much below normal for January coming in below 50 percent for much of the Yampa and White basins. So, overall, January was quite warm and quite dry. It’s also important to remember that we are building our summer water supply in the mountains in the form of snowpack, and unlike last year, the northern and central mountains have really been lacking in the white stuff.

That doesn’t mean we can’t catch up to normal, but with every passing week it becomes harder and harder to catch up to those average conditions that are normally producing an inch or so per week.

If springtime arrived tomorrow, rafters, anglers and farmers would not be happy.

With about six weeks to go before the bellwether April 1 snowpack measurement, things aren’t looking good, according to the National Weather Service. The most recent streamflow forecast for this year’s snowmelt predicts volumes as low as 68 percent of their 30-year averages, because of lagging snowpack so far this season. The vital and iconic Colorado River is expected to flow at 71 percent of average this spring.

“It should be noted that it is still early in the snow accumulation season and conditions could change before the runoff begins,” according to the report.

Indeed, March is historically Colorado’s snowiest month, and the flakes can fall well into May in most places and to July at higher elevations.

Snowpack and snowmelt are critical to Colorado. They tell people who depend on the rivers — and that includes almost all of us in Colorado — how much water they can expect for recreation, reservoirs and irrigation in the months ahead. More than 80 percent of the state’s year-round water supply arrives as snow. High country snow also feeds downriver states, including Las Vegas, San Diego and Los Angeles, plus California’s Imperial Valley, one of the most productive farming regions the country with only only 3 inches of annual rain fall.

Water bills might not reflect the pinch this year, however. Because of last year’s abundant snow, reservoir storage remains well above average. Combined reservoir storage in the Colorado River basins in the state was 113 percent of average at the end of January, according to the National Weather Service.

The silver lining behind this cloud of snowpack doubt is flood risks, as of now, remain low risk this year.

But in Colorado, a state of constant weather pessimism, it’s always something.

The weekend was tragic in Colorado’s high country, and conditions are expected to make things riskier in the next few days. Another round of heavy snow and high winds will roll from the mountains to the plains overnight and Monday morning.

Saturday, Bob Mydans, a 64-year-old assistant U.S. attorney in Denver, died while snowshoeing in Rocky Mountain National Park. This morning on Flattop Mountain in the park, a 54-year-old woman from Estes Park was found unresponsive off a snowshoeing trail. Her name has not been released.

Early this afternoon, a 15-year-old girl from Wellesley, Mass., was killed when she skied into a tree on an expert run at Copper Mountain. Later in the afternoon two people were killed when a plane from Texas went down short of the runway in a snowstorm at Yampa Valley Regional Airport in Hayden.

With several more weeks to go in the snow season, Colorado is at 13 ski- and snowboarding-related deaths. The record, set in 2008, is 17.

With up to 10 inches of snow expected in the northern and central mountains from a low pressure system passing over the state tonight and tomorrow, more people will test the powdery slopes and gorgeous backcountry.

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center in Boulder said today that the risk of a slide is “considerable” across most of the state’s mountains, except in the northern San Juans, where the risk is rated “high.”

“Colder temperatures and moderate winds will generate some tender wind slabs on Monday, which will trend the avalanche danger upward,” according to the center’s forecast.

With weeks to go before the end of the snow season, Colorado has already exceeded its 10-year average of 5.5 avalanche deaths a year. The state picked up its sixth fatality when 37-year-old Australian Andre Hartlief was killed in an avalanche on Wolf Creek Pass in Mineral County,

The Colorado mountains have another shot at some much-needed snow Tuesday. Bring it. The statewide snowpack is still nearly 25 percent off its 30-year average. Snowpacks in the mountains range from a decent 81 percent in southwest Colorado to an alarming 64 percent in the northwest part of the state.

The San Juan mountains — including Crested Butte, Ridgway, Ouray and Telluride — could pick up 6 to 8 inches tomorrow. A winter weather advisory is in effect from 6 a.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday.

Snow showers are expected across the mountas, but little if any should reach the Front Range. Denver is expected to be sunny with a high near 38 Tuesday, but there’s a 30 percent chance of snow after 11 p.m. At most, the metro region would pick up a half-inch or less, the National Weather Service says.

Denver has a 20 percent chance of snow showers until about 11 a.m. Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to vary from the mid-30s to the lower 40s through the weekend, with sunny skies each day.

The normal high temperature for each day this week is 46 degrees.

It’s been cold this month. The daily average temperature has been 22.9 degrees, more than 8 degrees colder than normal. Eight days have seen highs below freezing. Saturday bottomed out at 3 degrees. My bones are still aching.

Get out your anti-depressants, snow bunnies. February offers little hope for Denver’s low-snow winter, according to the monthly outlook from the National Weather Service.

Neither history nor the forecast is on our side. Of Denver’s nine snow-likely months, February ranks sixth in total snow. Only October, May and September get less. Over the last 30 years, the shortest month has averaged just 5.7 inches of snow. January, the fourth-snowiest month, usually provides 7 inches. This year, it provided the city less than 5, more than 50 percent of it on one day.

Snowpack is down statewide, just 72 percent of Colorado’s 30-year average. The South Platte River basin, which includes Denver, is at 80 percent of average. They’re hurting worse in the mountains — where snowpack is vital to filling slopes with skiers and boarders in the winter, rivers with rafters in the spring and reservoirs with most of the state’s year-round drinking and irrigation supply in the summer.

The basins of the Gunnison, San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan rivers are at 74 percent of average, and the Colorado is at 71 percent. The basins of the Yampa and White rivers are at just 63 percent.

Hope is over the horizon. March is Colorado’s snowiest month with an average of 11.7 inches of snow. And remember 2003? March brought 31 inches of snow in just three days. A year earlier, statewide snowpack had peaked at just 53 percent of average. In 1977 snowpack topped out at just 46 percent.

It has been a long time since Colorado had a lot of snow in February. Among the top 5 snowiest Februarys, the most recent was in 1960, when Denver received 18.3 inches during the month. The least snowiest February on record was just three years ago. The city got only a trace of snow in February 2009, and 2005 ranks third for the least snow, with a half-inch for the whole month.

Snow is in the forecast for the next few days, but the National Weather Service says don’t get your hopes up.

“A rebound to above-normal warmth is expected for the remaining three quarters of February 2012 with precipitation expected to be near to below seasonal normals,” according to the dismal monthly outlook.

Do stormy skies set your heart and mind racing? Do you want to help save lives in your community?

If so, the National Weather Service needs you.

The agency’s Boulder office has announced 11 free training courses for Colorado weather spotters beginning Feb. 19 at the Red Lion Inn-Denver Central and concluding May 8 at the Elbert County Fairgrounds in Kiowa. Other classes are planned in Frederick, Westminster, Haxtun, Sterling, Akron, Fort Morgan, Greeley and Loveland.

Basic training takes about 90 minutes, enough to become a certified Skywarn severe weather spotter, but passionate weather nerds, present company included, can stay longer for more advanced instruction.

Volunteers can learn the basics of storm development, identifying storm potential, the kinds of information they should collect and report, and how to report it, as well as basic severe weather safety.

Helping out forecasters is fun, but it’s also vital, guiding the National Weather Service in its warnings that help save lives when tornadoes and other severe weather bear down on spotters’ own communities. The agency says its 290,000 trained severe weather spotters are our nation’s first line of defense against deadly storms.

Anyone is eligible, and current volunteers include all kinds of people — police officers and firefighters, dispatchers, emergency workers, utility crews, hospital and nursing homes staff, school officials, ranchers and retirees. The only common denominator is having a heart for helping others.

For more information, contact National Weather Service meteorologist Bob Glancy at Robert.Glancy@noaa.gov.

The snowpack in Colorado is wind-battered, shaky and, as a result, just plain deadly, a host of of local, state and federal agencies warned today.

That warning should go without saying: four people were killed by slides in the Colorado mountains between last Wednesday and Sunday, just one short of a year’s average for the state.

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center in Boulder is rating the danger as considerable on nearly all of state’s mountains from Durango to Steamboat Springs.

“Slopes that are close to sliding are just waiting for a trigger, such as a skier, snowboarder or snowmobiler,” Kelly Elder, a research hydrologist for the U.S. Forest Service in Colorado, said in a media release from the agency today.

Sunday, 13-year-old skier Taft Conlin of Eagle was killed when he and two friends hiked into a closed area of Vail Mountain. Two other teens were battered but able to escape the avalanche that was 300 feet wide and traveled 300 400 feet down the mountain.

Also Sunday, Christopher Norris, 28, of Evergreen was killed by a slide 40-feet-wide at Winter Park Resort, when he was skiing with his father-in-law.

Saturday, 24-year-old Tyler Lundstedt of Fort Collins was snowmobiling with his younger brother near Grizzly Creek in Jackson County when they got stuck and triggered an avalanche. His brother, Jordan Lundstedt, 21, was able to climb out.

Last Wednesday, 43-year-old Keith Ames of Aspen was killed by an avalanche while he was skiing with friends in an out-of-bounds area of Burnt Mountain near Snowmass. The Avalanche Information Center’s report of the slide, including video, is available here.

Nationally, an average of 25 people have died annually in avalanches over the past decade, according to the Avalanche Information Center’s count.

January is the deadliest month with 208 fatalities in the U.S. since 1950. February is second with 193, and March is third with 158, according to the center.

Between 2001 and 2011, Colorado was the deadliest state for avalanches, with 55 victims. Montana was second with 41, and Alaska came in third with 37.

Sadly, four Coloradoans who were sons, brothers and friends also became grim statistics this winter.

Forecast Colorado is your place for the latest breaking weather news for Denver and Colorado, featuring the latest forecasts, road conditions and closures — with an occasional detour into meterological science, trivia and oddities.