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These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Detroit Tigers

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

Carlos Guillen. Every generation has a ginormously one-sided trade or two that one GM no doubt regrets long after he has checked into the Branch Rickey Home for Indigent Executives. Amos Rusie for Christy Mathewson, Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio, Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi and Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen to name some from yesteryear. The most recent example is when Dave Dombrowski sent the unmemorable Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one) for Guillen before the 2004 season. He was injured for a large chunk of 2005 but has otherwise pounded the ball at the highest level, stolen bases and led the resurgence of baseball in the Motor City.

Jeremy Bonderman. While Guillen was leading the offense back Bonderman was doing the same for the pitching staff. Rushed to the majors in 2003 Bonderman learned by failing and it’s paid off in a pitcher who, at 24, seems poised to challenge Johan Santana for the Cy Young again and again over the next decade.

Curtis Granderson. Granderson’s introduction to the casual baseball fan came when he fell during the World Series and became a poster child for the myriad breakdowns that handed the Cardinals the crown. That’s a shame because he had spent the summer making good on his tools-heavy profile. He’s fast, hits for power and plays a great centerfield; if he cuts down on his strikeouts (174 last season) he’ll be even more dangerous.

3 Things To Worry About

Kenny Rogers. Whether you believe he was cheating in the playoffs or not, it takes a diehard Gambler enthusiast to ignore the likelihood that he’s headed for a fall. If you do believe it, and you should, you’ll see Rogers’ miniscule strikeout rate and absurd home splits and see a pitcher who succeeded through smoke, mirrors and pine tar. With increased scrutiny of his thumb it’s hard to see him getting away with it for another season. If you don’t believe it, you look at his age, his current DL status and those same peripherals and wonder how he can keep pushing the sun up in the sky.

Sean Casey. It’s ironic that the only Tiger who hit in the postseason is one of the few who can’t hit at all in the regular season. Casey made a move from good parks for lefties in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to one that favors pitchers, something apparent in his 650 OPS after coming to the Tigers. Batting average is the only offensive asset he has and it will likely drop him below a sustainable level for a corner infielder this season.

Free swinging ways went out in the 70’s. Granderson, Guillen, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames all struck out at least 80 times last season. The only significant offensive addition, Gary Sheffield, isn’t quite so profligate with his hacks but is another player who will require the Kitties to play station-to-station baseball in 2007. That’s fine when you’re hitting 203 home runs and have a 3.84 team ERA. If either stat slides in the wrong direction the Tigers will be in some trouble.

3 Questions To Answer

Can Justin Verlander repeat his rookie success? There’s little doubt that Verlander has the makeup of a winning major league starter. He throws hard but doesn’t try to strike everybody out and looked well beyond 23 years of age during the run to the pennant. But he also threw 208 innings, well beyond anything his arm has done before, and history says that level of increase in work does not benefit you the next season. His arm tired down the stretch, another bad omen for his sophomore season.

When will Todd Jones cede the closer job? Although Jones and Joel Zumaya are 16 years apart in age they have some similarities. Each is a pudgy righthanders with facial hair who pitches out of the bullpen. But Jones relies on guile and experience to get outs, striking out 28 batters in 64 innings, and close games while Zumaya lets his flame tattooed arms do the talking. He regularly throws 100, whiffed 97 in 83 innings and decimated the Yankees during the ALDS. Jones has the job for now but Zumaya is going to have it sooner rather than later.

Were they proactive enough this winter? It’s always a fine line for teams that fall just short of winning it all, especially when they lose because of uncharacteristic mistakes. The Tigers made flub after flub in the World Series which made it easy to say that staying the course would be the right direction for this season. I’m not so sure. Sheffield is an upgrade to the offense but Casey, Placido Polanco and Craig Monroe are more problematic than helpful to the manufacture of runs. It’s harder to pinpoint changes on the pitching staff but Rogers and Verlander both figure to be worse this year and Nate Robertson, Fernando Rodney and Jones are also candidates for backslide.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The best prospect in the Tiger system is an outfielder by the name of Cameron Maybin. He’s got all five tools and an iridescent future but it isn’t starting this summer. Andrew Miller, on the other hand, went right from North Carolina to the Tiger pen in ’06. He will be in Toledo readying for his eventual move into the Motown rotation and when he is ready the Tigers will have themselves a 6’6” lefty who throws heat and keeps the ball on the ground. A nice backup for Bonderman and Verlander through many muggy summers on the lower peninsula.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

Unless you are a Royals fan you can state a reasonable case for your Central Division team’s chances of taking the crown. The Twins point to Santana, Mauer and Morneau while the White Sox still have the same kind of mix that brought them the 2005 World Series trophy. The Indians have an enviable collection of talent on the mound and at the plate and, as you’ve just read, the Tigers return essentially the same team that won the AL a year ago. What’s not in those resumes is the managers and I’ll take Jim Leyland over Eric Wedge, Ozzie Guillen and Ron Gardenhire, even if I thought he was the wrong man this time last year. He got so much out of this team a year ago and pushed the right button every single time – I don’t think you can overrate the way he outcoached Joe Torre in the ALDS, for example – that I think the Tiger shortcomings will be overcome.