WE'LL STILL VISIT, BUT NOT SPEND, CANADIANS SAY

With the Canadian dollar hitting record lows, Gabrielle and Francois Taillon are planning how to stretch their crippled currency in South Florida this winter.

The retired couple from Quebec will be browsing, not buying, when they take the bus to flea markets. And instead of fine dining, they foresee skillet dinners in their kitchenette.

But give up their annual 10-week Florida vacation, just because their dollar is worth just under 64 cents today in the States?

"No, no, no!" laughed Gabrielle Taillon by phone from Canada. "I hate the winter. The money is not very good at this time. But our health is better than money."

The Taillons offer the best scenario that South Florida can hope for this winter _ a continuing flow of Canadians who opt only to cut back on spending or shorten their stays because of their weakened currency.

But more likely, the tri-county region will see a drop in arrivals from Canada, its largest single source of international visitors.

Already, the number of Canadian tourists dropped 9 percent in the first half of this year to Miami-Dade County, the area's top destination, according to the Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau.

And the 29-room Silver Spray Motel in Hollywood _ where the Taillons have stayed for the past 20 years _ saw a 10 percent drop in Canadian arrivals during the summer season, said co-owner Denise Grenier.

"Usually, we get a few Canadians," Grenier said. "We only got two."

The Canadian Snowbird Association in Ontario estimates that as many as 10 percent of those who usually spend winters in the United States will stay home this winter. Besides a limp dollar, Canadians also face higher costs for continuing their national health care coverage abroad.

South Florida travel authorities are not panicking. They're counting on vacationers from the United States, Europe, South America and other areas to offset the decline in Canadians, who accounted for about 7 percent of tourists to the region last year.

They say even with Canada's currency weakening for years, the region has attracted record numbers of Canadians _ lured by the warm weather, a wide range of accommodations and strong historical ties.

But at least one Canadian businessman _ Gilles Menard, publisher of the Le Francophone International, a weekly French-language newspaper in Hollywood, rejects that complacency and wants Florida to fight back.

Menard this month launched an editorial campaign, urging more advertising and promotions to lure Canadians south.

"You know what happened in the Northern states this summer, like New York, New Jersey and Maine," he said, referring to the sharp fall in Canadian travel to those states. By the time Northeastern hotels started offering discounts, "it was too late," he said. "We don't want that situation to happen here this winter."

South Florida has a lot to lose, county tourism agencies say. Last year, Miami-Dade hosted a record 610,000 Canadians, who spent an estimated $617 million, and Broward reported 459,000, who spent $292 million. Palm Beach County also showed strong Canadian business, although it does not keep visitor data by country.

Yet the impact would not be felt equally from the plunging currency _ nicknamed the "loonie" because of its picture of a loon bird on the dollar coin.

Big upscale hotels still expect to attract the affluent. But smaller businesses that cater to the budget-conscious forecast a more serious blow. They are most likely to lose the occasional visitor, who doesn't own property or regularly spend winters in South Florida.

Moreover, South Florida faces stiff and growing competition, including Cuba, a magnet for budget travelers. In the first quarter this year _ as travel to Miami-Dade fell _ a record 92,000 Canadians visited Cuba, overtaking Italians as the biggest single national group visiting that island, according to Cuban government statistics.

Other U.S. destinations are targeting Canadians too. Virginia, for example, offers an "At Par" program, which gives Canadians coupons with 40 percent discounts to offset the weak loonie. And the St. Petersburg/Clearwater Convention & Visitors Bureau plans to nearly double its marketing budget to $151,000 for more visits and trade shows in Canada.

Broward authorities are poised for action, if needed.

The Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau already had planned to boost promotions, with outlays on ads in Canadian publications to rise 10 percent this winter to about $150,000. It will feature new ads on U.S. cable TV stations also watched by Canadians.

"Our hoteliers appear to be confident that reservations are holding for the winter,' said Bureau President Nicki Grossman. If that changes, the agency would consider coordinating ads to offer discounts to Canadians, she said.

At the root of the problems is a free fall in the value of the loonie, which has lost about 10 percent of its U.S. buying power in the past six months. The currency has been hitting new 140-year lows all month, falling below 64 cents on Wednesday and dropping to 63.05 cents Thursday.

Economists blame the dive in Canada's loonie on a triple whammy _ Asia's financial troubles, relatively low Canadian interest rates and jumpy world financial markets _ that shows no sign of abating.

"Trying to pick a bottom for the Canadian dollar is almost impossible," said Earl Johnson, a foreign exchange economist for the Bank of Montreal in Chicago, which operates its Harris Bank division in South Florida.

On Thursday, the Bank of Canada tried to intervene to bolster the currency, but failed. It raised overnight lending rates for banks from 5 percent to 6 percent _ a move some fear could further slow the Canadian economy and vacation travel. That might take an even bigger bite out of South Florida tourism.