Friday, March 31, 2017

The police continued their frontal assault to take the Grand
Mosque in the Old City of west Mosul, but the real story was the Golden
Division moving up the flank of the district. On March 29 the Federal Police
freed Malab
while there was fighting by the police and Golden Division in Yarmouk,
Zinjali
and Tanak.
The next day the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division took Alban,
while Qadhib al-Ban was officially declared
liberated. The Golden Division only reported taking an intersection and some
buildings, showing that it was a slow day. The goal is for the police to tie
down the Islamic State in the Old City, while the Golden Division surrounds the
district. This is part of a revised battle plan after the ISF got bogged down
trying to take the district. Now the goal is to attack the insurgents on
multiple fronts.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

The number of security incidents dipped in Iraq during the
third week of March 2017, but casualties remained relatively the same from the
week before.

There were 142 incidents reported in the press from March
15-21, down from 170 the week before, and 179 the first week of March. The dip
in violence might be a result of the stalemate in the battle for Mosul. The
government forces have been stuck in the Old City section of west Mosul for the
last few weeks leading to fewer clashes with the Islamic State. The third week
of February when the assault upon west Mosul began there were 75 incidents in
Ninewa. February 22-28 that went up to 102 incidents, then 108 March 1-7, 104
March 8-14, before going down to 87 Mach 15-21.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) are implementing their new plan for
Mosul. The Golden Division continued their march along the western flank of the
Old City. They attacked
the Yarmouk and Maghreb neighborhoods. The unit claimed
it freed the former last week. The Federal Police on the other hand are
continuing their frontal attack upon the district moving into Midan,
Suq al-Shaareen, Qadhib
al-Ban, and a railway station. The police were making little headway into
the area due to its dense layout and strong defenses by the Islamic State. That
led to a revision of the battle plan, which now consists of the police holding
down the insurgents, while the Golden Division attacks them from the flank. This
highlights the development of the ISF’s ability to strategize and execute their
plans. These were things they were having problems with when the Mosul campaign
initially started, but they have since adapted.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Comparison of maps of Old City district of west Mosul March
19 vs March 27. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division are pushing from
the south and have made no real advances over the last week. The Golden
Division has advanced along the western section of the district however to
attack the Islamic State from the flank.

Green is liberated, Red contested, Gold is Islamic State,
Blue is the Tigris River (Iraqi Day)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) made contradictory remarks about
their operations in Mosul. General Othman Ghanmi army chief of staff issued a statement
that 50% of west Mosul was now under government control. ISF commanders have
issued different figures and percentages on their progress based upon varying
measurements. 50% is roughly right based upon the area of west Mosul. General
Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah said
there was no time limit on how long it would take to free the rest of the city.
The government forces are fighting street to street, and the weather has been a
hindrance as well. On the other hand the spokesman for the Joint Operations
Command claimed
that the battle for Mosul was done. The battle in fact has hit a stalemate
forcing the Iraqi forces to change their battle plan. What is new is that the
Golden Division has moved up the western side of the Old City district and to
prepare to attack the Islamic State from its flank. Federal Police Commander
Raed Jawadat stated
that the Federal Police and the Rapid Reaction Division were making rapid
progress in their assault upon the Old City. Some small advances
were made. The two police forces are still aiming
to taking the Grand Mosque in the district. The Golden Division’s General Abdul
Wahab al-Saadi told the
press that the Islamic State’s defenses had been destroyed around the mosque.
That’s yet to be seen as the police are still roughly in the same area they
have been for over a week now. Finally, according
to a Federal Police officer reinforcements and 80 armored personnel carriers
arrived as part of the change in tactics in the campaign. Those will not likely
be used in the Old City where many of the streets are too narrow for vehicles
to be used. They could also just be replacements to make up for losses.

Monday, March 27, 2017

It’s gotten to the point that the Iraqi forces (ISF) are
actively spreading disinformation about the Jadida air strike incident in west
Mosul. The Joint Operations Command issued a statement saying on March 17 a
unit from the Golden Division called in a Coalition air strike to take care of
an Islamic State car bomb. After clearing the area they found that the Islamic
State had herded civilians inside a booby-trapped house packed with explosives
and detonated it. There were no signs of damage coming from the air in the
building. A large car bomb also detonated next to the house. In total 61 bodies
were taken out of the rubble. The problem with this story is that this took
place in Resala, not Jadida. Since news of this incident came out the ISF has
been denying that it happened. This is part of the government’s propaganda
campaign where no casualties are reported. When deadly events like this do
happen the authorities seek to discredit it, but it just shows that Baghdad is
not a reliable source in these matters.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

News about Mosul was dominated by the Coalition bombing that
left over 200 casualties. U.S. officials have admitted
that the Coalition carried out air strikes in the Jadida neighborhood on March
17, but not to causing any losses. General Saadi of the Golden Division was quoted
in the New York Times that the Iraqi forces called in a hit on three houses
that the Islamic State were using for snipers, but they didn’t know there were
civilians inside. He went on to claim that this was a trap set by IS to stop
the battle. Another Iraqi general told the Washington
Post that there was a car bomb outside the buildings and that contributed
to the casualties, but civil defense officials who are responsible for digging
through the debris for bodies and survivors said there was no sign of any
vehicle bomb. According
to Mosul municipal chief Abdul Sattar al-Habbo 240 bodies had been found so
far. Bodies
were still being pulled out of the debris by March 25, and restrictions
on journalists were also put in place in the area. Both the Coalition and the
Iraqi Defense Ministry have opened investigations
into the matter. The Iraqi forces have been largely disingenuous over this
incident. At first they denied anything happened, claiming the Islamic State
was making up stories, and the media was not telling the truth, and they could
be sued for doing so. Now they are saying that a car bomb might have
contributed to the deaths, but that doesn’t appear to be true either. They are
still trying to put all the blame on the insurgents. While the Iraqis might not
have known there were people inside the three buildings, this was not part of
an IS plot as the militants have used human shields since the start of the
Mosul campaign in October, and have been forcing people to stay inside their
fire positions for weeks now. Overall, this is part of a larger campaign by the
government to deny bad news coming out of the war with IS especially if it
involves civilians dying.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

The Mosul offensive has ground down into a stalemate. While
areas are still regularly freed, they are relatively small, and the Iraqi
forces (ISF) have not been able to make any serious advances into the Old City
district along the Tigris River. Poor
weather has limited air support and led the ISF to start and stop their
operations again and again over the last few weeks. The dense layout of the
area has meant the ISF are not able to use their vehicles many times. Finally,
the Islamic State is putting up a tough defense. They have an extensive tunnel
system underneath the city. They have burrowed
holes through walls to allow them to move house to house without venturing
outside. They have blocked off streets with cars, burned fires to obscure
visibility, deployed snipers upon rooftops, and constantly moved back and forth
through areas to try to avoid enemy fire.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Poor weather again hindered the Iraqi forces (ISF). The
Federal Police halted
their operations for the day because air support was limited by rain. The
Golden Division seized
the Yabessat neighborhood in the southwest section of the Old City. The ISF
have still only penetrated the perimeter of the district, and it looks like
there will be many hard days of fighting before they’re done and move on to the
rest of the Mosul.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) were still slowly but surely pushing
into the Old City district of west Mosul. The Golden Division attacked the Yabsaat,
Yarmouk, Rajim
al-Hadid and Wai al-Ain areas, while the apartments in Yarmouk
were freed. There was still fighting in Nablus
and Resala, which were officially declared cleared
yesterday. The Federal Police were also forced to retreat in Jadid due to Islamic
State attacks. That neighborhood was freed on March 12.
There were also heavy clashes in Bab
al-Tob. So far the ISF have only penetrated into the perimeter of the Old
City. Poor weather has limited air support. The dense layout of the sector has
meant the Iraqis usually have to dismount and move street to street, house to
house. IS is also putting up a stiff defense.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Things are still going slow in trying to capture the Old
City district in west Mosul. The Golden Division, coming form the southwest took
the Resala and Nablus neighborhoods officially. Some streets
were liberated as well, which is a perfect example of how things are
progressing.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Violence has remained steady in Iraq since the Mosul
campaign restarted in the middle of February. Security incidents remained at a
low level across the country, with almost all the attacks going on in Ninewa
for obvious reasons.

There were a total of 170 incidents from March 8-14, 2017.
104 of those were in Ninewa, followed by 31 in Baghdad, 10 in Anbar, 7 each in
Salahaddin and Kirkuk, 5 in Diyala, 3 in Basra, and 1 each in Babil, Dohuk, and
Sulaymaniya.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Map of progress in Old City west Mosul. Green is liberated
areas. Red is contested. Tan is under Islamic State control. Blue in right hand
corner is the Tigris River. (Iraqi Day)

Fighting in the Old City went back and forth. The Golden
Division attacking from the west took the Nablus
area. There were renewed clashes in Bab al-Tob, which
was just declared officially freed
for the second time yesterday. Cramped streets, poor weather, tough defenses by
the Islamic State have all slowed down progress in the city. The immediate goal
remains taking the Grand Mosque where IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared
the caliphate in 2014. After that is taken there will still be the majority of
the Old City to be assaulted.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

National Security Service arrest an IS suspect in east Mosul
(Telegraph)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) were back on the offensive in Mosul
despite the bad weather that has slowed progress lately. The Bab al-Tob
neighborhood was officially declared cleared
for the second time. The first time was on March 15,
but then the next
day there was bombing going on. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction
Division also said they had taken the Arbiaa, Kur,
and Tawafa, and attacked Bab al-Saray, all of which are in the Old City along
the Tigris River. The immediate goal is to seize the Grand
Mosque. Heavy rain has limited air support. The Old City is densely laid
out with narrow streets, which has reduced much of the fighting to house-to-house
battles. Finally, the Islamic State is putting up a sturdy defense. These have
all contributed to the slow going in recent days.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Aftermath of a suicide bulldozer bomb in the Old City of
Mosul (Daily Mail)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) renewed their
offensive in the Old City in Mosul on March 17. The Federal Police and Rapid
Reaction Division were still aiming for the Ground Mosque where Islamic State
leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate in 2014. The police were
able to take
several main streets and markets during the day. That symbolizes who much the
campaign has slowed down. The dense layout of the Old City along with tough
defenses by the insurgents has slowed things down considerably, mixed in with
poor weather that has limited air support.

Friday, March 17, 2017

The dense layout of the Old City in west Mosul along with poor
weather has severely slowed down the progress of the Iraqi forces (ISF).
The Iraqis are declaring specific buildings and streets freed such as Ninewa
Hospital to document their advances. The ISF were still pushing on the Great Mosque,
which was where Islamic State head Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi announced the caliphate
in 2014. Yesterday, the Bab al-Tob neighborhood was officially declared freed,
but on March
16 the Iraqi air forces was still bombing targets in the neighborhood to
try to root out Islamic State snipers. Finally, the Iraqi forces tried to push
into Nablus,
but the fighting was so fierce that American spotters were called in to bring
in Apache helicopters for close fire missions. Heavy rains in recent days have
limited air support, which has slowed progress by the ground troops. The compact
layout
of the Old City has also made things difficult because many of the streets are
too narrow for ISF vehicles to maneuver. Finally, despite Iraqi propaganda IS
is still putting up fierce opposition.
Altogether that has led the ISF to begin to adjust their plans to deal with the
new environment.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) continued their slow advance through
the Old City along the Tigris River. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction
Division finally took
the Iron Bridge, making it three out of the five spans across the Tigris River
that are now under government control. The bridges were knocked out by
Coalition air strikes so they are largely symbolic victories.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Advances in west Mosul has gone through fits and spurts. On March
14 the Federal police seized the Mosul Train Station. The Iraqi forces
(ISF) were also trying
to take the Grand Mosque where the Islamic State’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
declared the caliphate. The building has been in site of the ISF for the last
few days, but they were repulsed after
suffering heavy losses. The Iron
Bridge was another target the police have targeted. The ISF were still fighting over
the Bab al-Tob area of the Old City as well. A mix of rain, IS snipers, and the
compact layout of the Old City have all contributed to the recent slowdown in
the ISF’s progress.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Rapid Reaction Division moving through the narrow streets of
West Mosul (Reuters)

Fighting remained focused around the Old City section of
west Mosul. Sanaa
was attacked, while Naft was freed.
The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division were trying
to capture the entrance to the Iron Bridge that crosses the Tigris. Those
police forces were also clearing the areas of Bab al-Tob there were taken yesterday;
going house-to-house as there were still IS elements left there. Advances in
Mosul have slowed down due to poor weather, but more importantly, the dense
layout of the Old City area. To the west of the city two more towns were taken
by the 16th Division, which just entered the fight two days ago. The
Iraqi forces (ISF) have kept up a steady and even advance throughout most of
the new campaign with good coordination between the police in the east and the
Golden Division moving up the middle and east. This showed that the Iraqis have
learned from the east Mosul battle when the Golden Division was initially sent
into the city on its own due to political pressure from Baghdad, and when other
units were eventually sent in there was a lack for coordination for several
weeks.

Monday, March 13, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) were pushing inside and outside of
Mosul. The Golden Division, Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division were
still attacking the Old City section along the Tigris River. Jadida and
Aghawat were freed, the latter was declared liberated on March
10. Fighting was on going in Bab
al-Tob as well. To the west of the city the 16th Division took
another village,
and so did the Hashd
in the Badush district.

The Iraqi forces (ISF) continued their push into the middle
of west Mosul. The Golden Division split its forces with one unit going west to
attack
Resala and the other heading east towards the Old City along the Tigris River.
The latter was attacked from three
directions and included the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division. An
Iraqi general claimed that roughly
half of the western section of Mosul is now in government hands. Just south of
the city the police also took
two towns and assaulted a third, and the 16th Division seized
another in its first action of the new campaign. Finally, a village in the
Badush district to the west of Mosul was liberated
as well. The Hashd discovered
a mass grave near the Badush prison that that had several hundred bodies in it.
Human Rights Watch documented the execution of over 600 prisoners when the
Islamic State moved into the facility in 2014.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

There were a total of 179 incidents reported in Iraq in the
first week of March. That was just around the same amount as the previous week
when there were 181. Those high figures were due to the fighting in Mosul.

A total of 749 people were killed and 622 wounded. 21
Peshmerga, 21 Hashd al-Shaabi, 37 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF),
and 670 civilians lost their lives. Another 2 Sahwa, 50 Hashd, 131 ISF, and 439
Civilians were injured.

There was more movement into the middle of west Mosul, and
in the Badush district. The Golden Division seized
the Amil 1, Amil 2 and the Aghawat
neighborhoods. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division moving up the
Tigris River freed Nabi
Sheet, Okaidat, Bab
Jadid, and attacked Bab
al-Tob again. To the west of the city the Iraqi forces (ISF) took two
more towns in the Badush area. The advance along multiple fronts is
stretching the Islamic State’s defenses. General Maan al-Saadi from the Golden
Division claimed that they had been broken, but that’s yet to be seen.

Friday, March 10, 2017

March 9 was a day of advances and consolidation for the
Iraqi forces (ISF). Inside Mosul the Golden Division freed
Muallemin and Silo in the southwest. The police were clearing
the areas they had taken in the southeast along the Tigris River, and fighting
just outside the Mosul Museum. General Talib Shaghati of the Golden Division
hoped that all of western Mosul could be taken within a month. To the west the
9th Division and the Al-Abbas Division of the Hashd took the
Badush power station, and two towns in
the area as well. These represent the three main axes in the Mosul campaign,
even though the last has not reached the city itself yet. The original
operational plan launched in October collapsed because the Iraqi command could
not coordinate its forces on multiple fronts, and had to consolidate them all
down to just one. In the four months since the ISF has been able to successfully
develop their strategies and implementation.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Mansour above Wadi Hajar was one of the new neighborhoods
taken on March 8 (Medecins Sans Frontieres)

The Golden Division continued their push from the southern
tip of west Mosul into the center. The Joint Operations Command had it freeing
the Mansour and Shahuda neighborhoods. A security source told New Sabah that the Federal
Police and Rapid Reaction Division were pushing into the Old City, but that
might be premature. The Iraqi Forces (ISF) are advancing along two axes. One is
along the Tigris River by the police and the other is in the middle by the
Golden Division. Eventually a third from the west should be opened as well when
the 9th Division and Al-Abbas Division finally reach the city.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Iraqi forces captured the Hurriya Bridge March 6 and
prematurely claimed to have taken the government complex, but were ambushed by
the Islamic State (BBC)

March 6 the Iraqi forces (ISF) were moving into the middle
of west Mosul. First the Federal Police (FP) and Rapid Reaction Division (RRD) captured the
Hurriya Bridge. This was the second span across the Tigris that the ISF
secured. All of the bridges were knocked out by the U.S. led Coalition during
the battle for east Mosul to hinder the Islamic State’s movement within the
city. The FP and RRD also seized
a number of government buildings and public works in the Danadan neighborhood.
The Golden Division was fighting in the western outskirts and center of the
western section of the city and seized Samoud.
Finally, Dour
al-Sokkar near the Ghazlani Camp just outside of Mosul was also freed.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

More than half of Mosul has fallen to Iraqi government
forces and it is only a matter of time before the whole city is retaken. How is
the Islamic State portraying this defeat? Has it changed its messaging since
the start of the battle? Charlie Winter a Senior Research Fellow at the
International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College, London
and an Associate Fellow at the International Center for Counter-Terrorism – The
Hague sheds light on this issue. He has been following The Islamic State’s
media output throughout the Mosul campaign. He can be followed on Twitter @charliewinter.

1. In your previous
research on Islamic State media releases you noted that most of its output
wasn’t focused upon their martial activities but their governance and its
state. Has that shifted since the Battle for Mosul started?

Monday, March 6, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) went back on the offensive after a
one day pause. On March
5 there were no operations due to the poor weather. On March 6 the ISF went
back to work attacking along two fronts. First,
the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division continued their push up the
Tigris River assaulting the Danadan and Dawas neighborhoods, taking the former.
The Golden Division moved up the center of south Mosul into Sumoud, Tal Ruman, Shuhada and
Mansour. Danadan,
Dawas
and Tal
Ruman had all been declared freed before. In Tal Ruman, the Islamic State
were using civilians as human
shields to try to stop the Iraqi advance. U.S. Apache
helicopters as well as the mix of Coalition and Iraqi planes were seen
overhead. The ISF are still in the tip of south Mosul pushing into the center,
but are making steady progress. As usual, the Islamic State is putting up a
stiff defense, but it is only a matter of time before it is broken.

Wadi Hajar is the newest neighborhood freed by the Iraqi forces (Institute for the Study of War)

The Iraqi forces were still fighting over the initial areas
of southeast Mosul. After several days of tough fighting the Golden Division
finally freed the Wadi
Hajar neighborhood on March 3 directly north of the Ghazlani Camp. The unit
was then moving east towards the Tigris River to connect with the police units
there. Dawas
was still contested after it was unofficially declared liberated on February
28, and so was Mansour.
On March
4 operations had to be halted because of bad weather and rain. The Islamic
State took advantage of the poor conditions to launch a series of
counterattacks. The insurgents are also using more suicide bombers.
One army officer said there were at least 10 per day. Like east Mosul the going
has been hard. Despite all the Iraqi propaganda that IS is a defeated force it
is putting up a stiff defense. The question as always is how long can it
sustain it before it breaks.

Saturday, March 4, 2017

On February 19 the campaign to retake Mosul began anew. The
Iraqi forces attacked across three fronts with the Federal Police and Emergency
Response Division (ERD) following the Tigris River up to Mosul Airport and then
into south Mosul. The BBC’s Quentin Sommervile was embedded with the RRD during
its initial assault on the city.

1. The Iraqi forces
started off the new operation by seizing several towns south of Mosul including
Albu Saif. What was the importance of that that town and how much resistance
was the Islamic State putting up in those rural areas?

Friday, March 3, 2017

March 2 was another day of hard fighting in south Mosul. The
Islamic State took advantage of a rainstorm to attack
the Golden Division. Some fighters were hiding amongst displaced families to
approach the frontlines before revealing themselves. The Golden Division is
currently trying to secure the Wadi Hajar neighborhood. Reporting has been very
inconsistent on how far they’ve gotten. On February
28 the district was unofficially declared freed, then said to be 80% under
control on March 1,
and then just 70% on March
3. Whatever the figure is, the neighborhood is still hotly contested.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

With the Mosul campaign back underway casualties remained
very high in Iraq. There were a total of 1,832 deaths and 2,458 wounded
recorded during the month based upon daily research into over 40 media outlets,
mostly Iraqi. An American General added that 500 members of the Iraqi forces
(ISF) were killed and 5,000 wounded in the fight for east Mosul. When compared
to previous reports that would add an additional 399 dead and 1,634 injured to
the total. In January the figures were higher as the battle for east Mosul was
still underway with 1,871 killed and 4,302 injured.

March 1 was another day of consolidation and hard fighting
in southern Mosul. An apartment complex in Mamun was freed
by the Golden Division after the district was declared liberated on February
23 and 26.
That same unit was still trying to secure
Wadi Hajar, Mansour and Shuhada. Wadi Hajar was unofficially
said to be cleared yesterday. The Iraqi engineers completed
the pontoon bridge across the Tigris in southern Mosul. The Islamic State also
carried out a surprise attack
on Hawi al-Josaq. Its fighters had shaved their beards and were dressed in army
uniforms catching the Iraqi forces (ISF) by surprise. The Iraqi forces (ISF)
have only entered the southern tip of the city, but as the reports show the
districts they are in remain hotly contested.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com