Sanders Surge Surprises Clinton In South Carolina

June 17, 2015 — Ron Chusid

While it is encouraging to see Bernie Sanders do better than expected in his neighbor state of New Hampshire, for his campaign to have any real chance he will have to also obtain support in other states. Backing from organized labor could help Sanders compete with Clinton nation-wide. Today Politico reports Bernie Sanders surge forms backdrop for Hillary Clinton S.C. visit

This humid Southern city just a few miles from the Atlantic coast is far from Bernie Sanders’ home turf.

But his shadow seemed to follow Hillary Clinton as she made her second visit to South Carolina since declaring her presidential candidacy.

Clinton’s Wednesday stop in the first-in-the-South primary state exposed her to an unwelcome dose of Bernie-mentum, giving the Democratic front-runner a first-hand look at the grass-roots fervor Sanders is generating on the left.

Over the weekend, the state chapter of the AFL-CIO jumped the gun and effectively backed the Vermont senator’s candidacy before being forced to walk back its message. Last night, on the eve of Clinton’s arrival, Sanders’ campaign said it had to change the venue for his upcoming swing through Charleston due to overwhelming local interest…

Clinton has declined to strongly weigh in as supporting or opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that she helped negotiate as secretary of state, or on granting Obama fast-track authority, but she said over the weekend that the White House should now work with House Democrats, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, to improve the deal.

Nonetheless, elements of organized labor have raised questions about her trade position — which the campaign insists is clear. Those questions formed the backdrop for the South Carolina’s AFL-CIO’s Saturday resolution urging its national group to support Sanders. The national organization later instructed the state group to walk back its statement — which didn’t mention the issue specifically — because it didn’t have the authority to deliver it.

Clinton continues to have a large lead in the primary battle, but what matters is not how a politician is doing in June, but what happens when people start to actually vote in February.

The biggest development in the presidential campaign so far this month? It’s not Jeb’s or Trump’s announcements, or Hillary Clinton’s re-announcement. Rather, it’s the faster-than-expected rise of Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton still has maybe the clearest path that any non-incumbent has had to win a party’s presidential nomination in modern times. But you also can’t ignore the momentum — Bernie-mentum! — that Bernie Sanders seems to have in the Democratic race right now. Sure, it’s just two polls (one phone survey, another that’s partially online) that show him within 10-12 points of Clinton. And sure, they’re both in New Hampshire, which is right next door to Sanders’ Vermont. But they could also be a canary in the progressive coal mine. And they tell us three things: One, the Elizabeth Warren supporters have seamlessly moved over into Sanders’ corner. Two, Sanders’ momentum suggests that there might not be breathing room for other Democratic challengers like Martin O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb. And three, as political scientist Jonathan Bernstein points out, it’s also a reminder on the GOP side “that any candidate can benefit from a public opinion surge.” Make no mistake: Poll after poll shows Clinton in outstanding shape with Democratic voters. But Sanders’ rise — if it lasts — does put Team Clinton in a bit of a box. After all, punching down is not something that will make the candidate or campaign look good.

In other campaign news, The Boston Globe reports that Martin O’Malley has opened his first campaign office in New Hampshire. This is a reminder of how early we actually are in this campaign cycle.