Evil George Washington wrote:Vic: What he is doing is productive. It can help others sort you. You stating that ruins it's purpose. What does the votes here have to do with the last game?

I'm not sure how it's going to help anyone sort me if I know what's going on. That would just give me scum!me a way of manipulating the results seeing as I had an idea of what was going on. Better to just clear the air and let you try stuff I can't manipulate if you want a read on me.

Or hey, maybe I was wrong and this is the actual test by Zenii? Whether I'd think he was trying to get a rise or not? Got me good.

And the votes comment was just me finding it funny after being seen as obvitown by everyone last game.

Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho and Somitomiomi, It's nice to see you. Have anything to add?

Some general things:

I feel like the lights out system helps town(by providing more lynches) so in order to balance the game the mod probably gave the mafia more power/people. So I disagree with Madge saying the opposite in her early post.

I'm not in favor of lynching more than one person D1 because we're lynching pretty much blind.

Evil George Washington wrote:Vic: How are you reading Sabrar and Zen? Since you are voting Peaceful Whale, who do you think is scum with him and why? What do you mean 'stuff you can't manipulate'? Give examples.

Zen: A bit scummy, but probably me just being biased. Need more stuff that isn't just him provoking people.

Sabrar: Haven't seen much out of him yet, I'd like to see his justification for who he finds scummy as he's promised.

I have no idea who would be with Peaceful Whale, you think I've got an entire scum team picked out already when we haven't even had posts from everyone? I'm willing to go for anyone who displays scummy behavior D1 whether or not I think I can pick out some scum buddies for them.

Stuff I can't manipulate? I mean if you do something like trying to annoy someone and I know what responses you'd consider scummy and what you'd consider townie, then by golly I'm going to give you a townie response whether I'm town or scum. OR I can point out that I know what you're up to, and you can try something else until you find something that I don't know what the response should be, and then you'll actually have a test where I'm not just feeding you the townie answer each time. Seems slightly more useful for you, because if I give a townie answer when I don't know which answer is townie, that means a lot more than if I give a townie answer when I do.

Vicarin wrote:Assuming that you're not messing with me, most of the issue I have with NL normally is not being able to keep pace with the NK. However, if we NL and then double lynch the next day, it's the same number of deaths anyway.

Do you think one lynch per day is the best strategy? Because I don’t.

Vicarin wrote:

bessie wrote:

Vicarin wrote:- wam mostly makes sense, but for 2 we don't usually get the Lynch results immediately anyway, so that isn't any worse than usual.

Yes but we usually have the flip from the first lynch before we lynch a second time.

Yes, but we don't HAVE to lynch a second time on the same day. As I said before, we can always play this like a normal mafia game by always voting "Lights Out" after the first lynch, so our information is not any worse than usual, unless we choose it to be.

I disagree that our information is necessarily worse.

We get information from different aspects of the lynch.

We get info from the wagon.We get info from the flip.

Yes, we don’t gain any information between lynch 1 and lynch 2 but in the overall game we get more information per flip.

1 lynch:

-wagon-lynch flip-nk flip

1,5 bits of info per flip

2 lynches:

-wagon 1-wagon 2-lynch flip 1-lynch flip 2-nk flip

1,7 bits of info per flip + increased chance of hitting scum.

So yeah, let’s lynch more, rather than less. Force scum to vote, that’s where we find them.

Zenii wrote:I agree with Laser. No fake votes. We are executing 3 people today. No more, no less.

People we will not be executing: PW, Zenii, Wam

People we will be executing: Madge, Vicarin

High chance of being executed: bessie, Frezeblade

Ok I'm out for today. @Laser, George, PW join me on Madge will ya

Well aren't you a confident fellow. I don't know you so I can't really put this anywhere, but it strikes me as odd.

Vicarin wrote:Ok, hands up: who's actually played Stellaris here? I want to know who actually knows what is and isn't at least loosely justified in flavor.

I didn't even know what it was until this game started.

Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho and Somitomiomi, It's nice to see you. Have anything to add?

Top of the morning to you too. Game started at 0:34 for me, I just managed a cursory reading of it over my breakfast.

One of these days I'm going to collect all the funny ways people spelled my name and make a little collage

Peaceful Whale wrote:Voting is a good thing, but just in case, we should use a Fake Vote or something, that way we can think things through clearly.

Do we really need something between an actual vote and Finger of Suspicion?

Peaceful Whale wrote:I support dragging out the days as much as possible, let’s make use of these extended deadlines.

As others have mentioned, we get extended deadlines by lynching.I don't think we will (or should) lynch more than two people on D1 anyway,

Peaceful Whale wrote:we may have to stop ourselves from lynching, and let the day pass. Let power roles get stuff, and whoever dies in the night can give us a lot of information.

We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).

heuristically_alone wrote:So maybe we don't lynch who we suspect as lynch partners. If we were to do multiple lynches in a day, we could search for possible lynch partners and lynch one from each partnership. That would get as a lot of information to work with. Not sure yet how I feel about doing a lot of lynches d1.

I don't know either, but this seems like a pretty good plan. "Possible scumteam" analyses usually seem to come up with a handful of results even on D2 or D3, so we surely can't rely on this today.

Evil George Washington wrote:We are only lynching one person at a time. We are also dragging the day out, then lynching. That way we cut time from getting too paranoid without actual information from lynches. (Since they come in the the next day) Just because we have the ability to lynch three times a day does not mean we should use that. If we somehow had confirmed scum, then we could allow a second lynch to gain more information and gain tempo. Otherwise, we keep it to one.

We are going to use the same method as last game, we are going to use the Bottom Four system. We all show our bottom four lynches we are comfortable with compromising on, we draft that into one chart via Sabrar, and then we'll campaign for our lynch from there. We will also keep our votes in play, no lollygagging. We don't have time to skip about. That's the plan.

Wouldn't we run out of townies way too fast if there are more than one anti-town factions? I can see why we wouldn't want to lynch more than once on D1, but I'm not sure that should be the default for later days.

Vic: I do not have any setup speculation no. That's not what interests me. I usually skip that and go straight to the meat. The most you would get out of me is that I believe having 1 lynch near deadline is best to minimize error. I'm going to assume we have 3 scum. I am not familiar with the flavor either. I also again, state it's very important we focus on scum hunting, since we only have 4 days to decide. I like to keep it simple.

Somitomiomi: By the way I like your avatar. It resonates with my personality. Like I explain to Vic, I'd prefer 1 to minimize error, and lynching more than once without flip is blind and dangerous if there are more than one anti-town faction. Who do you think is scum at this point in time?

Plytho: I also mention lynching only once. Why not respond to me about that? Also, who do you think is scum so far?

What? I'm saying that the information is at least as good as in normal mafia, and you disagree, then agree with me?

And no, I don't think one lynch per day is the best strategy. I'm just saying that unlike normal mafia, where I'd be frothing at the mouth at the suggestion of a NL, I could see situations here where it could be beneficial to NL on D2 or so. I do think they're pretty unlikely however (as scum probably outclasses town in PRs), so I'd definitely be down with multiple lynches in future days(probably restricted to 1 or maaaaybe 2 today).

Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho and Somitomiomi, It's nice to see you. Have anything to add?

Nice to see you too btw.

I think Vicarin's the only player I'm unfamiliar with? I've been playing mafia for almost a year now, only on this forum.

I'm not familiar with Stellaris lore, I may look it up later. I'm not sure we should rely too heavily on flavor for setup spec considering it's only 'loosely based' on the Stellaris canon.

Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho: I also mention lynching only once. Why not respond to me about that?

It was more about sharing my point of view than pointing out scummy behaviour.

Evil George Washington wrote: Also, who do you think is scum so far?

I have no idea, I'm always surprised about how confident people get this early. What I've done so far is look at what people are saying and seeing whether I agree or not and share my own view on things.

I'll do an analysis tonight and try to figure out why people are saying what they're saying and see if I find anything malicious.

Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar, I'd like you to explain your reasoning for your scum team.

freezeblade: I read this as fluff, posting only for the sake of posting, plus being wishy washy about PW's eagerness. I'm least comfortable with this read however.heuristically_alone: This is a forced reaction, taking me way too seriously while in the meantime not paying close attention.

So your d1 plan is to lynch the hardest players for you to read?

There was exactly 1 player out of 4 who could have qualified as such in that list, that remark is unfounded which makes the rest of the post meaningless as well.Compare this one to Vicarin's reaction one post later, that is much more natural (though not necessarily alignment-indicative).{George,Zen}: Vicarin's push on PW was totally justified, PW's content was super suspicious. No way both of you are Town and want to legitimately push Vicarin for that.

BTW

Evil George Washington wrote:Since you are voting Peaceful Whale, who do you think is scum with him and why?

This is nonsense. You cannot expect connections to be transparent within the first page. This is a question just for the sake of having a question.

What? I'm saying that the information is at least as good as in normal mafia, and you disagree, then agree with me?

You left out the part of your quote that says "unless we choose it to be", implying that two lynches in a day leads to worse information, or did I misread that? Anyway, I wanted to point out that more lynches equals more information, not less. If you agree with that, good!

Sabrar: Please explain how you think PW's content was suspicious as I don't see it that way. It seems he is excited to play. How is PW's play any different then his previous game in Cross Over? He seems townie. I don't see scum saying that they would bread crumb scum, I would feel they would be more careful about that. My question was made to get Vic talking reads rather then setup speculation which is mostly what he is doing right now. I like this post from HA: HA

What? I'm saying that the information is at least as good as in normal mafia, and you disagree, then agree with me?

You left out the part of your quote that says "unless we choose it to be", implying that two lynches in a day leads to worse information, or did I misread that? Anyway, I wanted to point out that more lynches equals more information, not less. If you agree with that, good!

Well, some people seemed to be implying that we'd be flying blind in between the 1st and 2nd lynches, which, as you've pointed out, isn't the case. If we locked in both lynches before doing either we'd have less info, but as I said, we'd have to do that on purpose, and it'd be terrible.

Plytho: I've explained it to Vic and Omiomiomi already. I want to minimize error. I did say that if people want more than one lynch, I feel we should cap it at 2 D1 and then cap it at 1 in future days to maximize the information we get from Day 1, and minimize error and blindness. I would prefer 1 at all times though. If we did multiple lynches I'd rather lynch based on individual suspicion rather then connections as it's bad to lynch two people based on connections without seeing either flip first. I don't know, I don't really have much else to say on that. I also don't feel like arguing more about this. I want you to focus on that analysis.

Quick stuuuuuufffff poooooossssst:I mainly voted with Zennii becuase I wanted to see if anyone would jump on it.In my mind, we had a lot of time, especially with the extended deadlines when we lynch... I also could easily see town going rampant with the amount of lynching. This is why I suggested we try to limit this...Regarding Zennii and Sabrar...I think they’re both insane, I was sheeeeeeping Zennie for content. Namely seeing how Madge would react (more on this later).Sabrar is also insane, how in the world does he know who is scum on the first day? I think it is mainly pressuring people, but if actually pushed hard for their lynch I will be displeased... and confused.

My meta for future reference

Spoiler:

cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

bessie wrote:Welcome back freezeblade, Evil George Washington, and Zenii! I was very excited to see all your names on the sign up list! heuristically_alone, maybe not so much.

Awww I love you too <3<(^_^<)

Vicarin wrote: Also, I'd guess that town's PRs are significantly less powerful at night than scum's, so waiting around for results is probably a bad idea overall.

You "guess". Looks like Vicarin is town for knowing the same info that I know.

Sabrar wrote:heuristically_alone: This is a forced reaction, taking me way too seriously while in the meantime not paying close attention.

So your d1 plan is to lynch the hardest players for you to read?

There was exactly 1 player out of 4 who could have qualified as such in that list, that remark is unfounded which makes the rest of the post meaningless as well.Compare this one to Vicarin's reaction one post later, that is much more natural (though not necessarily alignment-indicative).

If by forced reaction you mean "the first thought that came to my mind" then yes. Can you blame an unfounded remark when your clain at that time was unfounded? (Did you get the reactions you desired from it as well?)

Evil George Washington wrote:Somitomiomi: By the way I like your avatar. It resonates with my personality. Like I explain to Vic, I'd prefer 1 to minimize error, and lynching more than once without flip is blind and dangerous if there are more than one anti-town faction. Who do you think is scum at this point in time?

Why do you think multiple lynches are worse with more than one anti-town faction?

Evil George Washington wrote:Somitomiomi: By the way I like your avatar. It resonates with my personality. Like I explain to Vic, I'd prefer 1 to minimize error, and lynching more than once without flip is blind and dangerous if there are more than one anti-town faction. Who do you think is scum at this point in time?

Why do you think multiple lynches are worse with more than one anti-town faction?

Great question.

The goal is to get as much information as possible at the end of each day and the ynch gives us the most information. So you bet we should use it to our full advantage. Right now I'm leaning on no more than 3 lynches d1. 4 may be too excessive and dangerous. We don't know how many night kills may happen. I'm still up for the idea of finding 3 sets of possible scum partners and lynching one of each.

Woah. Lots of content to catch up on. Sorry everyone, I signed out for the evening around the time of my last post, so there was lots to read and take notes on when I got in to the office this morning (I typically catch up on the night's conversations as I'm having breakfast, but this is much more content than usual, so it was done between e-mails and office calls). I've noted how everyone stands on number of lynches today. I place myself under Slow and steady, as I see nothing to gain from lynching a whole bunch of people on hunches D1 (D1 we have the least amount of information of any day), and think that 2 lynches today would be the maximum I would support.

Team "Lynch fucking everyone" (says more lynching = more information or said 3+ for D1):plytho (says they aren't down for 2 lynches D1 though)LaserguySabrarZenii

Team "Slow and steady" (1-2 for D1):Freezeblade (no more than 2 a day, unless there's really damning evidence)Evil George WashingtonMadgeVicarin (calls 3-lynch and 4-lynch strats crazy)wam

I feel like the people shooting for lots of lynches, although I disagree with it (I don't trust my D1 reads enough to lynch more than 2), are likely coming from a place of townieness. I don't think I could support a lynch on anyone from that group unless something else surfaces that pings me greatly. I feel that D1 lynching is mostly off of meta, and of the metas that I know (people I've played with on here) they are all looking like their "standard" meta, so I don't really have much in the way of reads, besides Madge not having as much to say as I remember, and an excuse of not knowing "lights out" is pretty flimsy I think, as I haven't played one either; but the concept isn't terribly different enough to invalidate previously known game strategies.

Actually, I've just talked myself into voting, as that's about my best read so far.

Reads of note:George feels a little off, not sure why yet. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since he's voting scum. Also, I noted that heury made the same unvoiced observation of Freezeblade's post as I did. And George noted that very post of h_a's that I liked! ++

Sabrar's reads don't make sense and it looks like he is fake hunting. Vic is so obviously trying to mimic his town style it hurts.