Is Outside Shooting a Lost Art?

A common lament these days is that players can't shoot the ball. By this we take the intended meaning to be that successful jump shots from a distance are in decline, rather than a complaint that inside shots are going in at a lesser rate. The reality of course is that defense, and in particular defensive strategy arising from in depth scouting of upcoming opponents, has as much to do with the drop in field goal percentage compared to say the 1980's as any kind of lack of shooting ability.

Ever since the Pat Riley Knicks instituted the "no layups" mentality of fouling rather than letting your foe get an easy bucket (and in truth the bad boys Pistons and earlier era teams also brought this into vogue), and the officials turned a blind eye to the often flagrant nature of these fouls, it's been hard work scoring in the NBA!

Close -- as the name implies is any kind of field goal attempt from short range

Dunks -- those slams of which many a highlight film is made

Tip -- the less controlled efforts to tip the ball in after a teammate's missed shot

In this article we will focus on jump shots, with a number of different stat looks.
(All stats reflect games played through February 5th of the 2003-2004 season.)

1) NBA League Averages
While the three point shot is a popular option for many of the NBA's twenty-nine teams, the preferable result in most coaches minds on an offensive possession is to get the ball close in to the hoop for a short distance attempt. Here's the NBA shot selection so far:

Shot

Att.

FG

eFG

Ast

Blk

Jumper

67%

.367

.415

66%

4%

Close

26%

.535

.535

53%

14%

Dunks

4%

.908

.908

75%

3%

Tips

2%

.496

.496

0%

0%

Totals

100%

.437

.470

61%

6%

So two-thirds of NBA field goal attempts are "jumpers" by our definitions, with the field goal percentage being by far the lowest for any shot type, in part due to the three point attempts. Even adjusting for 3's (the "effective field goal %" or eFG) still leaves jump shots as low efficiency.

Dunks are of course the highest probability for success shot, but getting into position to attempt the dunk is the tricky part! Finally with over 61% of all made buckets also seeing an assist credited, the jump shots come in a tad higher at 66% having a valued passing component.

2) Team Jump Shot Stats on Offense
Before looking at the numbers we'd probably pick Sacramento and Dallas as the teams most likely to shine in this category -- are we right?

Team

Att.

FG

eFG

Ast

Blk

Pts

SAC

67%

.393

.458

73%

4%

50.7

MIN

77%

.419

.448

63%

3%

55.8

SEA

73%

.370

.447

65%

4%

53.2

NYK

73%

.395

.445

66%

3%

51.1

BOS

70%

.379

.444

68%

3%

48.7

HOU

69%

.382

.443

57%

3%

45.8

POR

69%

.389

.430

66%

4%

47.4

DAL

67%

.372

.429

63%

3%

50.7

ORL

69%

.378

.428

61%

4%

48.5

MIL

65%

.370

.419

70%

3%

44.6

TOR

72%

.369

.419

67%

2%

46.2

PHO

66%

.370

.416

60%

3%

44.7

CHI

68%

.367

.412

71%

4%

45.6

NOH

66%

.349

.412

69%

3%

44.2

IND

70%

.361

.410

66%

5%

44.8

ATL

68%

.371

.407

62%

4%

42.9

GSW

69%

.358

.407

65%

6%

44.8

PHI

66%

.364

.406

67%

5%

41.2

MIA

67%

.352

.404

67%

4%

42.2

LAL

66%

.362

.403

71%

2%

43.1

MEM

63%

.348

.403

74%

4%

41.6

UTA

61%

.369

.403

69%

4%

36.7

DET

63%

.362

.402

62%

5%

39.1

DEN

63%

.360

.401

62%

4%

41.2

SAS

66%

.353

.399

66%

4%

41.1

LAC

62%

.345

.392

65%

4%

39.6

NJN

64%

.348

.392

76%

3%

39.0

CLE

66%

.348

.378

68%

4%

41.0

WAS

67%

.316

.360

61%

6%

38.7

The Kings do indeed take top billing if you go by effective field goal percentage, although the Timberwolves have the highest overall FG% and most points per game from jumpers.

The Mavs only make it to #8 on the eFG scale, and their team jump shooting has declined overall (hello Antoine Walker!) from a .453 eFG in 2002-03 which was far ahead of the Kings that year.

Minnesota takes the highest proportion of jump shots, while Utah takes the lowest. Mr. Kidd takes the Nets into the #1 spot for highest percentage of baskets that are assisted at 76%, while the "do it yourself" Wizards are lowest at 61%. The Lakers have the fewest shots blocked, while the Warriors and Wizards are battling for the indignity of having the highest percentage of their own jumpers cast aside.

The more important question is whether being an effective outside shooting team leads to wins, and there it gets murky: if the season ended today, only six of the top ten eFG teams would be in the playoffs, while six of the bottom ten would also make the post-season!

Having reliable jump shooting then doesn't appear at first glance to be a key criteria for good team performance.

3) Team Jump Shot Stats on Defense
Fans may love offense but coaches preach defense, and contesting shots, whether they be near or far from the hoop is a big factor in keeping the other team's scoring in check.

Team

Att.

FG

eFG

Ast

Blk

Pts

SAS

68%

.339

.376

59%

5%

40.1

IND

67%

.353

.391

65%

4%

39.5

HOU

73%

.345

.392

73%

4%

44.2

TOR

65%

.360

.392

62%

3%

39.5

MIN

70%

.348

.394

68%

5%

44.5

DET

65%

.355

.397

64%

4%

40.6

WAS

69%

.358

.403

71%

6%

45.2

PHI

69%

.352

.405

67%

3%

43.5

MEM

62%

.358

.407

67%

6%

40.3

LAL

69%

.366

.409

60%

4%

46.1

PHO

68%

.356

.411

66%

4%

45.1

ATL

67%

.367

.413

67%

3%

45.3

NJN

69%

.367

.415

64%

3%

43.6

MIA

69%

.366

.416

62%

3%

42.5

NYK

71%

.375

.418

66%

3%

47.1

CLE

67%

.370

.421

67%

5%

46.4

DEN

61%

.377

.421

69%

5%

42.1

SEA

67%

.368

.422

65%

5%

46.4

MIL

66%

.373

.422

66%

4%

45.7

SAC

69%

.381

.424

59%

3%

49.5

CHI

66%

.371

.424

71%

3%

44.8

DAL

67%

.368

.426

67%

3%

47.6

BOS

70%

.365

.426

70%

3%

47.8

LAC

64%

.378

.428

64%

3%

45.3

NOH

66%

.376

.428

67%

3%

44.2

ORL

66%

.378

.432

68%

4%

46.9

GSW

70%

.389

.438

67%

4%

50.5

UTA

67%

.388

.443

64%

5%

43.6

POR

66%

.397

.447

69%

3%

46.7

If championships are won on defense, then the Spurs are showing they can again be a factor in the NBA title outcome. There's daylight between what San Antonio gives up from outside and the rest of the league.

Also boasting of solid defensive efforts so far are Indiana and Houston, two teams with coaches who certainly believe in playing tight defense at all times.

Then of course at the bottom of the table we find those (what's the opposite of clean living?) Portland Trailblazers, who allow a .447 effective field goal percentage -- one sign perhaps of some less than stellar energy from a roster that with a few exceptions is ready to be traded at a moment's notice!

Also trawling along the bottom is Utah (despite Kirilenko's long arms he can't block everything!) and the Warriors.

With the defense there seems to be stronger influence on a team's won-lost record. Eight of the top ten are in the playoffs as of this moment, while only four of the bottom ten are currently post-season bound.

If you take a look at some of the net values for Offense minus Defense, you'll find that Minnesota has the better advantage in eFG with a +.054 number, ahead of Houston's +.051 and Sacramento's +.034 -- the Wizards meanwhile bring up the rear at -.042 on the eFG scale.

Another metric for looking at jumpers however is that the key is to take few of them yourself and make your opponents take plenty! As we saw in the first chart, jump shots are by far the worst payoff shots of the four categories. In this regard then, the top teams are Utah (6% fewer jump shots then their foes), New Jersey (-5%), Houston (-4%), and the Lakers (-3%).

4) Most efficient jump shot players
All right, let's get to the fan friendly material -- are there players who can still sink the J?

Player

Team

Att.

FG

eFG

Pts

Barry

SEA

77%

.442

.607

8.0

Miller

IND

92%

.424

.552

9.7

Peterson

TOR

83%

.393

.535

9.3

Jackson

HOU

86%

.427

.532

9.6

Stojakovic

SAC

75%

.414

.522

12.7

Hoiberg

MIN

87%

.414

.513

7.2

Cassell

MIN

89%

.473

.512

15.1

Houston

NYK

96%

.449

.511

15.4

McKie

PHI

75%

.412

.510

7.4

McCarty

BOS

91%

.363

.510

9.8

*Pts = Points per 36 minutes

We are only considering players with at least 200 jump shots attempted, and Brent Barry heads the list.

Of course, you could hardly have an outside shooting dream team without Reggie Miller who checks in at #2, and the likes of Stojakovic, Cassell, and Houston.

Mainly though this is the land of the three-point bomber who takes a large percentage of his shots from downtown.

5) Highest Field Goal Percentage Jump Shooters
If you're looking for a player who can get you a basket from outside, and not necessarily a three-pointer, then these are your guys:

Player

Team

Att.

FG

eFG

Pts

Cassell

MIN

89%

.473

.512

15.1

Robinson

CHI

83%

.459

.459

8.7

Houston

NYK

96%

.449

.511

15.4

Garnett

MIN

76%

.448

.452

12.9

Barry

SEA

77%

.442

.607

8.0

McInnis

POR

82%

.441

.463

9.0

Ming

HOU

54%

.441

.441

5.9

Robinson

PHI

87%

.439

.474

13.5

Thomas

NYK

80%

.429

.429

8.3

Stevenson

UTA

73%

.429

.437

9.0

Some of the same names from the eFG view show up here, with Cassell leading the way. However, we also add a few big guys with touch in Garnett, Ming and the much maligned Glenn Robinson.

What these two looks tell us though is that the efficient shooting action in an NBA game these days takes place from beyond the 3-pt line and from in close. The mid-range jumper is indeed an endangered species.