This is a discussion on Good sample size to see if you suck? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; So I just moved up to 10NL and have just reached 5k hands. Around 8BI down, im frustrated and its beginning to affect my play

So I just moved up to 10NL and have just reached 5k hands. Around 8BI down, im frustrated and its beginning to affect my play now. My roll can cope but its just that ever since I started 10NL I havent seen the green and im questioning how good I acutally am. Had my fair share of bad beats and stupid tilt calls cost me a bit, I would say im running pretty bad, but not my worst.

Do you ever have the feeling or are in the state of mind where you just know you won't hit anything or feel like every single person is bluffing you? Then you call someone and they show the nuts and you feel stupid?

Roughly how many hands shall I wait so I can make some sort of sense and get a good idea of where im at? By 5k hands if you're a good player would you be in profit by now?

#2

20th February 2014, 7:39 AM

OliverOliver [68]

Game: Horse, OFC

The good thing about being a bad player is that you can always get better (hopefully). Maybe it's time to take a step back and analyze your game on a larger scale. Also, if you aren't analyzing on a regular basis after a session, I would definitely step that up.

Figure out where your leaks are and work on fixing them. Playing a lot of poker doesn't necessarily make you a good player.

But to answer your question, I would think after 5k hands, you should have a good idea about where you stand.

#3

20th February 2014, 8:54 AM

DaReKa [265]

Poker at: Bovada

Game: NLHE Cash

Quote:

Originally Posted by akaRobbo

im questioning how good I acutally am.

At 10NL you are almost certainly not as good as you think you are. You don't even know all the things you don't know yet. I'd do some type of study/training at least twice a week, and if you are playing more than 4 tables, I would stop immediately. I think two tables is best when starting out. You need to be taking notes on opponents in order to play best against them. Example: Someone raises flop cbets 10% of the time, but you have seen him slowplay 2pair+ on a wet board. His range will mostly be bluffs and you can call much lighter. A lot of people at 10NL will have lots of highly exploitable leaks, so you need to watch for them and write them down.

Quote:

Had my fair share of bad beats and stupid tilt calls cost me a bit, I would say im running pretty bad, but not my worst.

This is pretty tough to work on, but you gotta try; this is a huge leak.

Quote:

Do you ever have the feeling or are in the state of mind where you just know you won't hit anything or feel like every single person is bluffing you? Then you call someone and they show the nuts and you feel stupid?

This type of session happens quite frequently, and you have to get used to it. This is where an emphasis on playing your best, as opposed to making money, comes in handy. Focus on improving, making money will come as you successfully improve.

Quote:

Roughly how many hands shall I wait so I can make some sort of sense and get a good idea of where im at? By 5k hands if you're a good player would you be in profit by now?

100k hands. And get over the idea of being a "good player." You are learning to play at the micros, so even when you are beating it, you won't be good. If you get it in your head that you are, it can get in the way of improvement.

#4

20th February 2014, 1:51 PM

akaRobbo [656]

Online Poker at: Stars

Game: NLHE

DaReka you make some good points, and yes Im only 2 tabling.

I think one of my leaks is trying to outplay people who are leading the hand, after they c-bet im better off just folding, even if you know they caught nothing of the flop and they have a 75%+ c-bet. It feels good calling down bluffs with middle pair etc, but ive noticed that even since ive moved up to 10NL, basically NOBODY bluffs to the river and when you're getting raised, you're 99% beat.

I probably just need to simplify my game and when im in control of the pot, then I can make plays, playing back at people is costing me lots of money I think.

Do people find that even at 10NL its pretty much ABC poker still?

Oh yeah within the first 30 hands this morning I lost 2 all-ins, King-high flush vs straight flush, and some fish hit a gutshot on the river to beat my flopped top 2 pair lol...

#5

20th February 2014, 4:22 PM

Arjonius [3,167]

re: Poker & Good sample size to see if you suck?

Quote:

Originally Posted by akaRobbo

So I just moved up to 10NL and have just reached 5k hands. Around 8BI down, im frustrated and its beginning to affect my play now. My roll can cope but its just that ever since I started 10NL I havent seen the green and im questioning how good I acutally am. Had my fair share of bad beats and stupid tilt calls cost me a bit, I would say im running pretty bad, but not my worst.

If your play is being affected, drop back down. BRM isn't just about how many buyins you have. It's also about playing at a level appropriate to both your ability and your mental / emotional state. When you're not playing as well as usual, why play at a level where you don't know you can win even if you do play well?

And try to stop focusing on how good you think you are. Your long-term results are a much better gauge than your self-impression, so as you build up your hands at this level, you'll see how good you really are.

#6

21st February 2014, 10:38 AM

vinylspiros [4,368]

Online Poker at: pokerstars

Game: NLHE

Quote:

Originally Posted by akaRobbo

So I just moved up to 10NL and have just reached 5k hands. Around 8BI down, im frustrated and its beginning to affect my play now. My roll can cope but its just that ever since I started 10NL I havent seen the green and im questioning how good I acutally am. Had my fair share of bad beats and stupid tilt calls cost me a bit, I would say im running pretty bad, but not my worst.

Do you ever have the feeling or are in the state of mind where you just know you won't hit anything or feel like every single person is bluffing you? Then you call someone and they show the nuts and you feel stupid?

Roughly how many hands shall I wait so I can make some sort of sense and get a good idea of where im at? By 5k hands if you're a good player would you be in profit by now?

Its not a determining sample as someone playing zoom can get that volume in like 5 hours by 4 tabling.

10K hand breakeven stretches or downswings are very common indeed. So dont worry about it. After you get in like 25K hands , you will know what direction your moving in for sure.

#7

21st February 2014, 1:58 PM

akaRobbo [656]

Poker at: Stars

Game: NLHE

Thanks guys. Got a bit of respite last night, had a good session and won back 4BIs. It was/is just pretty worrying when as soon as you move up to a new level things go badly, hard to tell whats wrong especially with being a relatively new player.

#8

21st February 2014, 2:52 PM

RodneyC86 [592]

Online Poker at: PS

Game: NLHE

Just one hand if we can find one hand of yours that you simply played with complete fail logic and you REALLY thought you were not tilting

#9

21st February 2014, 8:19 PM

/Logan/ [4,054]

Poker at: PokerStars

Quote:

Originally Posted by vinylspiros

Its not a determining sample as someone playing zoom can get that volume in like 5 hours by 4 tabling.

10K hand breakeven stretches or downswings are very common indeed. So dont worry about it. After you get in like 70K hands , you will know what direction your moving in for sure.

FYP

It really takes a lot of time to can have a good idea where we stand, some mention you need 250k hands to be any kind of acurate, 100k can give a rough idea but still not set in stone, 70k could at least tell your borders, like if you are winning at 5bb after 70k hands you could be a 2bb player or a 7bb player but at least you know are a winner, but if take for example someone with just 2-3bb you canīt know for sure if he is running bad and is really a crusher or is actually a BE player. But also to the time you get those amounts of hands your game actually could change and now your bb is not result of your actual play but from past.

I put myself like a example, when move from 2nl to 5nl this year, the first 20k hands i was BE, then last 30k hands i am winning at 4-5bb/100, but do i run normal on the BE strecth? or do i run hot on last stretch?, i canīt say for sure because after 50k hands iīm still 7bi under expected value but i donīt feel that iīm crushing the level, still feel is so hard to actually win.

So the only thing we can do is keep playing, move up if have the BR and go on.

You can run different scenarios with different winrates and let you see what to expect in a determined amount of hands, is really eye opener. Even a 5bb winner could have a breakeven stretch or a downswing. is just part of this retarded game we decide to play.

#10

21st February 2014, 9:11 PM

/Logan/ [4,054]

Online Poker at: PokerStars

re: Poker & Good sample size to see if you suck?

Just set a example on the variance simulator.

Someone with 2.5bb/100 winrate after 100k hands could be a 6bb crusher or a -1bb loser.
After 250k hands 70% that he could be a 1bb or 3bb winner, but 95% that still could be a -0.1 or a 5bb.

After just 70k hands a 2.5bb player have 70% chances is a BE or 4bb player.

So like mention it depends, if your winrate is on the high side 4-5bb+ and still there after at least 70k hands you could be a 2 or 6bb player but at least have the idea you are a winning player.

But if are on the lower side 2-3 is harder to tell. And also anything less than 70k hands is way off to give any direction.
---------------------------------

on the breakeven strech or downswing

A 3bb player can have from 3buyins down to 50 buyins down and still be expected in more or less porcent, and from 5k hands to 300k hands stretches.

I mean 300k hands could mean a year for a lot people to can put in that amount and if on this year he still keep running like crap and is just part of variance then he could just drop thinking is the worst player of the world when was just variance.

Same will happen the other way, someone winning for a year could just be variance if he donīt put a lot of volume and if sudenly start to lose cant say for sure if he have variance or he just suck and before was luck.

So, yeah, variance is a bitch and this game is more luck than people really want to admit.

#11

21st February 2014, 9:54 PM

GWU73 [613]

Poker at: ACR

Game: NLHE PLO LHE

Rather than focus on your win rate, I suggest replaying your hands and evaluating your play on each street. It is easier to find problem or determine if you are just running bad. 10nl is not really any different than 5nl so if you were winning at 5nl you could easily be facing a little run bad.