Every game in March carries a life-or-death feel for teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. They rarely are quite that important—remember, the phrase “body of work”—but the Selection Committee is watching intently.

GOOD DAY: Kentucky

Outcome: Won at home vs. No. 11 Florida. Kentucky’s at-large hopes were all but gone when Florida’s Scottie Wilbekin drained a 3-pointer with 7:36 left in an enormously important game at Rupp Arena. That bucket gave the Gators a 57-50 lead, and the Wildcats turned the ball over on their next three possessions. Florida, though, wouldn’t score again—the product of solid defense by Kentucky and unforced errors by the Gators. The Wildcats scored the final 11 points of the game to escape with a 61-57 victory that puts Kentucky on the good side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Prognosis: The Selection Committee has no choice but to select 37 at-large teams, and this win probably pushes the Wildcats into that group. They now have two wins over NCAA-bound teams at home (Florida and Missouri), only one bad loss (at RPI 124 Georgia), decent computer rankings and better-than-average strength-of-schedule numbers.

GREAT DAY: Belmont

Outcome: Won over Murray State in the OVC Tournament final. The Racers controlled the game most all night but missed free throws and turned the ball over in crunch time. And Belmont took advantage, sending the game into OT on Kerron Johnson jumper with 10 seconds left in regulation and then winning it on a Johnson jumper in the lane with 1.2 seconds in OT.

Prognosis: They’re in. An at-large bid was a longshot, so the Bruins grabbed the automatic bid and will head to the Dance for the third consecutive year and the sixth time since '06.

BAD DAY: Minnesota

Outcome: Lost at Purdue. This wasn’t just a loss, it was a bad loss – a 16-point loss to the RPI 120-ranked Boilermakers. Minnesota now has lost four of its last six and eight straight road games since beating Illinois on Jan. 9.

Prognosis: The Gophers should be in the field based on their five wins over top-25 teams, but for every win there is a bad loss that counter-balances all the good they’ve accomplished. If they lose in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Tubby Smith’s could be in trouble.

GOOD DAY: Baylor

Outcome: Won at home over No. 4 Kansas. Pierre Jackson and Cory Jefferson could hardly miss, combined to hit 22-of-26 shots for 53 points in pulling off the upset of the day—a 23-point beatdown at that—preventing the Jayhawks from claiming the Big 12 title outright.

Prognosis: It’s hard to believe, but this win might not have done anything for Baylor’s chances to get an at-large bid. The Bears still are just 2-10 vs. RPI top 50 and three embarrassing losses (RPI 162 Northwestern, RPI 144 Charleston, RPI 121 Texas). Baylor likely will need a couple wins, at least, in the Big 12 Tournament to get an at-large bid.

GOOD DAY: Alabama

Outcome: Won home game over Georgia. The Tide grabbed a victory out of the jaws of defeat. With the game tied in the closing seconds, Georgia’s Charles Mann drove the lane but had the ball stripped with four seconds left. Alabama’s Trevor Releford scooped up the loose ball and started the other way. At half court, and just ahead of the buzzer, Releford let loose the shot. The prayer was answered.

Prognosis: Precarious. You don’t get style points for beating the RPI No. 124 team, even if it was in dramatic fashion. With so many SEC team on the bubble, there’ll be a LOT of NCAA play-in games happening next week at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.

BAD DAY: Colorado

Outcome: Lost at home to Oregon State. Some teams just can’t handle prosperity. Less than 48 hours after upsetting No. 19 Oregon, the Buffaloes undid all that good. How bad was Colorado? After the game, coach Tad Boyle grabbed the microphone and apologized to the fans over the PA system.

Prognosis: This was the worst performance of the day by a bubble team, losing at home to the RPI 192 team. They are 5-4 vs. RPI top 50 and 10-8 vs. top 100 but have two embarrassing losses (Saturday and before that to RPI 181 Utah). The Buffaloes may now have to reach at least the Pac-12 final to get an NCAA invite.

GOOD DAY: Tennessee

Outcome: Won home game over Missouri. The Vols rallied from an eight-point second-half deficit as the red-hot Jordan McRae scored seven of UT’s points in an 11-0 to take the lead for good. Jarnell Stokes also recorded his 14th double-double of the season.

Prognosis: Still iffy but looking better with just about every game. The Vols were left for dead after losing to Arkansas and Georgia in back-to-back games in early February to fall to 3-6 in SEC play. Tennessee has since won eight of nine—beating Kentucky, Florida and Missouri along the way—to get back in the bubble discussion.

BAD DAY: Providence

Outcome: Lost at UConn in overtime. The Friars ralled from a six-point halftime deficit to force overtime against a banged-up Huskies team. But UConn guards Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier combined to score eight points in overtime, and Providence made just 1-of-8 shots in OT as the Huskies pulled out the win.

Prognosis: Realistically, the Friars were a longshot to get an at-large bid, but they worked their way back into the conversation by winning seven of eight games, including victories against Villanova, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. This defeat drops Providence to 17-13 overall—and with bad losses to Brown, Penn State, DePaul and Boston College—it’s auto bid or bust.

GOOD DAY: Boise State

Prognosis: As it stands now, the Broncos are in but shouldn’t feel secure. It would be only their second NCAA appearance since 1994 and sixth overall. They’re 4-6 vs. RPI top 50, which is not bad, but do have two bad losses (RPI 164 Nevada and RPI 181 Utah).

BAD DAY: Arizona State

Outcome: Lost at Arizona. ASU was never in this game as their rival completed the season sweep by pounding the boards, taking care of the ball and hitting free-throws down the stretch.

Prognosis: The Devils needed a marquee win to stay in the bubble conversation. They’re 4-5 vs. RPI top 50 and 6-9 vs. top 100 with two embarrassing losses (RPI 181 Utah and RPI 195 DePaul). Now, it seems as if their only chance to Dance is to win the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas.

GOOD DAY: Middle Tennessee State

Prognosis: An at-large bid is a longshot with a 2-3 record vs. the RPI top 100, so the Blue Raiders would be best served to take care of business and win the Sun Belt Tournament.

GOOD DAY: Wichita State

Outcome: Beat Illinois State in Missouri Valley semifinal. Veteran big man Carl Hall had 16 points and eight rebounds as the Shockers took care of business Saturday in St. Louis. Wichita jumped out to a 22-6 lead, allowed Illinois State to catch up before pulling away in the second half to win by 15.

Prognosis: They’re in. The Valley certainly was going to get two teams, and Creighton entered the postseason in good shape. To join the Bluejays in the Dance, Wichita State had to make the tournament final. Win or lose on Sunday, let’s punch the Shockers’ ticket.

GOOD DAY: Iowa State

Outcome: Won at West Virginia. The Mountaineers were just 6-11 in Big 12 play heading into this game, but they’ve been a tough out at home. They lost to Kansas State by just one point in Morgantown, to Oklahoma by 10 and to Baylor by three. But Iowa State took the drama out of this one quickly, racing out to a 24-point halftime lead and cruising to victory.

Prognosis: Wednesday’s win against Oklahoma State was huge to the Cyclones’ NCAA hopes, but avoiding a loss to West Virginia was every bit as important. ISU’s resume can’t absorb another loss to a team with an RPI higher than 100.

BAD DAY: La Salle

Outcome: Lost at No. 16 Saint Louis. The Explorers played basket-for-basket with the Billikens for about 26 minutes, but a quick 10-2 run gave Saint Louis a double-digit lead with just more than 12 minutes left in the game. This Billikens defense doesn’t squander double-digit leads. In fact, this one got away from the Explorers quickly, and Saint Louis wound up with a 78-54 victory.

Prognosis: A win at Saint Louis would have erased all but the most pessimistic of at-large doubts for La Salle. Losing this game doesn’t really hurt the resume, though. Barring a disaster in Brooklyn during the Atlantic 10 Tournament, the Explorers will get their at-large bid.

GOOD DAY: Ole Miss

Outcome:Won at LSU. “Good Marshall” Henderson showed up Saturday for the Rebels, hitting 4-of-9 3-pointers to score 22 points while handing out five assists to lead Ole Miss to its 23rd win.

Prognosis: Not much has changed after this win over the No. 85 RPI team. The Rebels still probably are on the wrong side of the bubble, but a loss would have been crippling. Ole Miss is 1-3 vs. RPI top 50 with two crushing losses (RPI 202 South Carolina, and RPI 230 Mississippi State) on the resume. The Rebels have work to do at the SEC Tournament.

GOOD DAY: Southern Miss

Outcome: Won at home vs. Central Florida. Dwayne Davis hit four 3-pointers and scored 34 points to lead Southern Miss to the easy win in the regular-season finale. UCF closed to within six at the nine-minute mark, but a Keith Clanton foul and technical foul led to four Davis free throws and Eagles never were challenged from there.

Prognosis: Still a longshot to earn an at-large bid. Beating UCF at home doesn’t change that fact. The Golden Eagles are still 0-5 vs. the RPI top 50 and 4-7 vs. the top 100. It’s auto bid or bust.

GOOD DAY: Saint Mary’s

Outcome: Won over San Diego in the West Coast Conference semifinals. The Gaels nearly suffered their worst loss of the season, but Matthew Dellavedova’s three-pointer with six seconds left forced overtime. From there, Saint Mary’s seemed to hold an edge and earned its 27th win of the season with a 69-66 victory. Losing to San Diego (RPI 160) would have provided the Gaels with plenty of nervousness over the next week.

Prognosis: Appear to be in good shape after surviving Saturday’s scare from San Diego. Although the Gaels have only one win over a RPI top 50 team (Creighton), they are 6-3 against teams in the RPI top 100 and entered Saturday’s action No. 34 in the RPI. Their only loss in the last 12 games came against No. 1 Gonzaga, a team Saint Mary’s will have a third crack at on Monday night.