The surge of unaccompanied minors coming over the U.S. borders looks to remain a hot topic for the 2014 midterms, as it adds another troubling dimension to Washington’s long-simmering, intractable fight over immigration.

But beyond the national headlines, the impacts may be highly localized. Immigrant populations tend to cluster in the U.S., and some House districts are much more apt to feel a direct impact from the crisis.

Districts with large populations from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras are more likely to have residents who are following the story closely. And, perhaps more important, those communities are more likely to see an influx of young immigrants from any unaccompanied children granted even temporary residency to live with a close relative.

Politics Counts looked at the top 10 House districts representing residents with roots of each of the three primary countries affected, according to data from the U.S. Census.

Those lists and maps are below:

Salvadorans

Top 10 House Districts for Salvadorans

District

Salvadoran Pop.

Non-Hispanic Pop.

Representation

California 29

63,766

221,331

Cardenas – D

California 34

57,626

241,026

Becerra – D

California 37

49,607

438,733

Bass – D

Maryland 4

45,567

618,265

Edwards – D

Texas 9

42,213

439,585

Green – D

New York 2

40,268

568,899

King – R

California 40

36,803

89,935

Roybal-Allard – D

Virginia 8

36,563

595,965

Moran – D

Virginia 11

35,525

602,057

Connolly – D

Maryland 8

34,983

627,396

Van Hollen – D

* * *

Guatemalans

Top 10 House Districts for Guatemalans

District

Guatemalan Pop.

Non-Hispanic Pop.

Representation

California 34

48,674

241,026

Becerra – D

California 29

33,371

221,331

Cardenas – D

California 37

28,222

438,733

Bass – D

California 40

22,541

89,935

Roybal-Allard – D

California 43

21,857

380,424

Waters – D

California 28

17,587

521,469

Schiff- D

New Jersey 12

16,690

621,002

Holt – D

California 44

16,008

221,296

Hahn – D

Maryland 4

15,017

618,265

Edwards – D

California 30

14,445

518,173

Sherman – D

* * *

Hondurans

Top 10 House Districts for Hondurans

District

Honduran Pop.

Non-Hispanic Pop.

Representation

Florida 27

25,910

186,320

Ros-Lehtinen – R

Florida 24

21,260

473,178

Wilson – D

New York 15

15,330

241,112

Serrano – D

Louisiana 1

13,533

699,493

Scalise – R

Texas 29

11,855

167,615

Green – D

New Jersey 8

11,775

347,409

Sires – D

Louisiana 2

11,721

707,001

Richmond – D

Texas 9

10,709

439,585

Green – D

Texas 18

10,526

429,658

Jackson Lee – D

Florida 25

10,392

200,833

Diaz-Balart – R

A few things jump out in the data, politically speaking. First, the top districts for all three nationalities are overwhelmingly represented by Democrats – only four of the 24 (there are several repeats on the lists) are represented by Republicans. Second, none of them are rated as a “toss-up” or “leaner” by the Cook Political Report.

That means, at the most local level, the latest turn in the immigration story may not have a special local political impact for 2014 beyond the national sentiment toward the crisis unless it dramatically shakes up these districts in some way.

The crisis could have impacts in other ways. It’s worth noting, for instance, that Rep. Steve Scalise, the Louisiana Republican who is about to become Majority Whip, has a large Honduran population in his district. The 13,533 Hondurans in Louisiana’s first district ranks fourth overall.

Another point in the data and the maps, the populations from these countries don’t seem to just settle near the border. Texas, for instance, does not many districts with large Guatemalan populations. Meanwhile Kansas and Nebraska, big agricultural states, have districts with fairly large populations for all three groups.

California has districts with large numbers of Salvadorans and Guatemalans, but not as many for Hondurans. And Florida has districts with many Hondurans and Guatemalans, but as many Salvadorans.

The spread of those numbers serves as a reminder of how ethnic groups tend to cluster and not necessarily near the border.

Look for instance at Maryland and its 4th district, which shows up on two lists – for Salvadorans and Guatemalans. That district borders Washington, D.C., which has a large Salvadoran population as well, nearly 20,000 according to Census. (Washington is more than 3,100 miles by car from San Salvador.)

As the unaccompanied minor story progresses, that clustering effect is something to keep in mind. If, indeed, minors are placed with their nearest relatives, the areas around those clusters of population may well see sudden changes in the classrooms of their local schools, and other possible demands on social services.

Remember these figures are at the county level, but the populations are likely to be clustered much more densely in specific neighborhoods that could see bigger shifts.

Among the top 10 counties for people of Salvadoran extraction, two are in New York, two in Maryland and two in Virginia. For Hondurans, three of the top 10 counties are in New York. For Guatemalans, the top 10 includes counties in Rhode Island, Illinois and Maryland. In other words, these numbers suggest the neighborhoods affected by the surge in unaccompanied immigrant minors may reach far beyond the border states.

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