Game Day: Cal State Fullerton @ 7pm in the Chiles Center and on NBCS-NW and WCC.com.

The game is currently a “pick’em” (no winner or underdog) for most of the prognosticators, and KenPom doesn't know who to pick either, but his computers won't let him predict a tie, so he's given #310 UP (0-5 against D1) the home court advantage and picked them to win, 68-67.

#255 CSF (2-3 against D1 competition) is coming off three straight wins, and are apparently feeling quite confident about their chances in Portland...."we're coming off a lot of momentum and we'll just build on that in Portland" said one player.

They've run a guard oriented offense to this point in the season, but are really not good at shooting the 3-ball (next to last in last at 23.9%). #0 junior Kyle Allman is the man to watch, as he's an excellent mid-range shooter and penetrator. The other starting guard, #14 junior Khalil Ahmad, hasn't put up a double-figures the last couple of times out, but Allman predicts Ahmad, "will put up 25 against Portland."

As some of you may have noticed, the Terry Porter show was the Ben Johnson show last night because TP is out sick and it will be a game-time decision if he'll be on the bench tonight....if not, Coach Bob Cantu will be an excellent substitute.

If the Pilots can prevent CSF from getting second chances and can convert free-throws, they can win, but if CSF can control the boards as they have done during their wins, and UP squanders their chances at the line...it could be another D1 defeat, but this time against a team that's not the caliber of competition UP has faced so far this season.

Coach Cantu has to be the most honest interview on a postgame show. He said he prepared the plan for attacking the 1-3-1 defense, which they expected. The team did a poor job, and he took blame. Said the players let the struggles in the first half affect their shooting in the second. And they couldn't stop the two CSUF guards, who scored 60% of their points.

[quote="DoubleDipper"]Game Day: Cal State Fullerton @ 7pm in the Chiles Center and on NBCS-NW and WCC.com.

Does kenpom work the as sagarin, where you just take the spread between the two teams and add 2 or 3 points for home court advantage? Sagarin has the Pilots listed at #288, but also at 0-6 so apparently he doesn't make any allowance for the non D1 games. So he has the Pilots favored by 2 at home against San Jose State, and then an underdog in all the rest of the games besides a 1 point favorite at home against Pepperdine.

bobtcat2 wrote:Does kenpom work the as sagarin, where you just take the spread between the two teams and add 2 or 3 points for home court advantage? Sagarin has the Pilots listed at #288, but also at 0-6 so apparently he doesn't make any allowance for the non D1 games. So he has the Pilots favored by 2 at home against San Jose State, and then an underdog in all the rest of the games besides a 1 point favorite at home against Pepperdine.

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) doesn't work on any spread per se, but from the statistical magic of his computers....the Las Vegas spread and over/under is often very close to KenPom's predictions, but are "independent."

Yes, usually 2 to 3 points are added to a predicted final based upon the home court advantage, but it varies depending upon who's home court is being played on. Interestingly, UP's and GU's advantage is the same, 2.9 pts, SMC is 2.6, SCU 2.8, and not surprisingly, BYU's is 3.6....but it's not necessarily based upon the noise of the fans or the strangeness of the gym, but on how many fouls the visiting team racks up compared to the home team. Although this disparity is becoming less and less in recent years, it is still a factor.

The team that currently owns the top ranking in home-court advantage is Air Force, at 4.5 points. An unlikely choice to be sure, and it’s worth noting that one can never know which team has the best home-court advantage. It is probably not Air Force, a team that plays in a dingy 5,800 seat arena that requires clearing a security checkpoint to get to.

KenPom will freely admit that even with all the stats and algorithms he uses, there is just no precise way of predicting home court advantage, and that it's probably more of a party conversation stat than anything.

Finally, KenPom lists the non-D1 games, but they are not part of his statistical data.

bobtcat2 wrote:Does kenpom work the as sagarin, where you just take the spread between the two teams and add 2 or 3 points for home court advantage? Sagarin has the Pilots listed at #288, but also at 0-6 so apparently he doesn't make any allowance for the non D1 games. So he has the Pilots favored by 2 at home against San Jose State, and then an underdog in all the rest of the games besides a 1 point favorite at home against Pepperdine.

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) doesn't work on any spread per se, but from the statistical magic of his computers....the Las Vegas spread and over/under is often very close to KenPom's predictions, but are "independent."

Yes, usually 2 to 3 points are added to a predicted final based upon the home court advantage, but it varies depending upon who's home court is being played on. Interestingly, UP's and GU's advantage is the same, 2.9 pts, SMC is 2.6, SCU 2.8, and not surprisingly, BYU's is 3.6....but it's not necessarily based upon the noise of the fans or the strangeness of the gym, but on how many fouls the visiting team racks up compared to the home team. Although this disparity is becoming less and less in recent years, it is still a factor.

The team that currently owns the top ranking in home-court advantage is Air Force, at 4.5 points. An unlikely choice to be sure, and it’s worth noting that one can never know which team has the best home-court advantage. It is probably not Air Force, a team that plays in a dingy 5,800 seat arena that requires clearing a security checkpoint to get to.

KenPom will freely admit that even with all the stats and algorithms he uses, there is just no precise way of predicting home court advantage, and that it's probably more of a party conversation stat than anything.

Finally, KenPom lists the non-D1 games, but they are not part of his statistical data.

Thanks! Quite a discrepancy between the Pilots' Sagarin and Kenpom ratings. Will be interesting to see if that narrows.

up7587 wrote:Taggart is gone to FSU. Reportedly, Jim Leavitt, the Def. Coord., is also going with him, which is probably the bigger loss.

Since Rich Brooks was hired in 1977, the Ducks first real coach search was last year, hiring Taggart. Now it happens again.

If Jimbo Fisher didn't wear out his welcome and leave FSU, this never would have happened. That's one of the top 5 jobs in CFB, and has rarely come open.

One thing for sure about turnover of the head coach at Oregon, the Ducks have moved to hire his replacement much much faster than we have replaced our women's soccer coach. Obviously there were incentives for the Ducks to hire some one quickly and there are not as many reasons to complete hiring so quickly for the women's soccer coach, but it is worth noting that when motivated, the process can be completed in less than a month and some.

wrv wrote:One thing for sure about turnover of the head coach at Oregon, the Ducks have moved to hire his replacement much much faster than we have replaced our women's soccer coach. Obviously there were incentives for the Ducks to hire some one quickly and there are not as many reasons to complete hiring so quickly for the women's soccer coach, but it is worth noting that when motivated, the process can be completed in less than a month and some.

I actually asked Scott about this on Wednesday--sounds like he's narrowed it down to the final 3 and looking to make a decision "soon."

wrv wrote:One thing for sure about turnover of the head coach at Oregon, the Ducks have moved to hire his replacement much much faster than we have replaced our women's soccer coach. Obviously there were incentives for the Ducks to hire some one quickly and there are not as many reasons to complete hiring so quickly for the women's soccer coach, but it is worth noting that when motivated, the process can be completed in less than a month and some.

I actually asked Scott about this on Wednesday--sounds like he's narrowed it down to the final 3 and looking to make a decision "soon."

The Spartans have won one more D1 game than the Pilots, it was at home vs. Idaho St, but they almost upset Denver on the road 4 days ago, losing 58-56.

San José State staged a 20-point comeback at Denver and tied the game twice within the last five minutes. However it was the last 34 seconds which sank SJSU in the 58-56 loss. The Spartans took three shots during that span that would have tied the game and another which would have put them in the lead, but none of those shots found the bottom of the net. Meanwhile, Denver didn't make a single basket in the final 4:01 but made just enough free throws to put the Spartans away.

Saw something similar today when Michigan defeated UCLA in overtime....except that it was the Wolverines that were down 16 and UCLA's lack of experience let the game get away late.

So far, we've seen the Pilots let sizeable leads against PSU and CSF get away and turn into losses. There's a good chance they'll be in the lead against San Jose St. tonight, but the next sign of maturity as a team will be when they hold the lead.

UP beat the Spartans in San Jose last season, but that was last season....missed free throws and turnovers can be a killer!

Really great breakout game by Diabate after slumps during PK80. (Also some good humor w/ him failing in the background trying to change out into uniform for his first minutes and kicking his loose shoe to the sideline after that one play)

First time (for me) hearing Jackson was out the past few games due to a foot injury.

Was hoping the halfcourt buzzer beater and the overall similarities to the CSF game weren't going to bite them again in the second half, but luckily they stayed tough.

Crowd audio levels was cutting in and out every now and then during the stream, which was...off but luckily the commentators' audio wasn't.

Happy for the guys. Sure would like to see them finish better at the rim. And I'm not sure about the clock management at the end. Jack Avina used to try to stall out games ala Dean Smith and UNC back in the day, and it never worked. You don't get a good shot, and the other team fast breaks for easy baskets. But SJS couldn't convert some of their chances, and the Pilots win.

DoubleDipper wrote:This season it might not be so bad for the Pilots to be confused with "Portland Freaking State."

They're in Eugene tonight on the Pac-12 network. The Ducks are favored by 14.5 points , but from what we've seen, PSU is better than that....look for a high scoring game!

I've been enjoying PSU. Very good chance they'll be in the NCAA this year. It's unfortunate they go to Oregon right after that Texas Southern game. I think Oregon will drop them by 23 or so after getting ripped in practice this week.

DoubleDipper wrote:The Ducks are favored by 14.5 points , but from what we've seen, PSU is better than that....look for a high scoring game!

UO beat PSU, 95-84, and after watching the two teams battle for 40 minutes, it was the correct outcome just based upon the size, athleticism, and pedigree of the Ducks.

PSU let the game get away for awhile and then battled back to within 2 points, but in the end the Vikings took way too many crazy shots, and when they got up in the face of the Ducks in the closing minutes like they did against the Pilots, UO was able to pass over the defenders to the open man for the easy basket.

Hey, PSU beat the spread, but it was scrappy and out of control vs. smooth and deliberate tonight, and the latter was just too much for the Big Sky to outpoint a Pac-12 team once again.

Not to hijack this thread, since I know that we are playing Seattle U tonight, but I am REALLY excited to be able to go to my first Pilot game in two years on Tuesday when we play Hartford. So, I have some questions: what is the deal with the Pilot House and food options before hand? Will that be available for the Hartford game? Where can I get this Pilot Pale Ale? Is the bookstore still open?

Thanks everyone in advance.

I'm looking forward to catching a stream of tonight's game. I think this game and the Hartford game are going to be really tough games for us. ESPN's (garbage) matchup predictor isn't giving us much of a chance tonight. Hartford is supposedly a strong team, but I haven't had the time to look into them too much yet.

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote: I have some questions: what is the deal with the Pilot House and food options before hand? Will that be available for the Hartford game? Where can I get this Pilot Pale Ale? Is the bookstore still open?

Haha, well you're not completely SOL, but close.

The Bookstore and Pilot House are closed until January 14th.

The Commons is closed this weekend, but is open 8:00 to 6:00 Dec 18-21 (coffee service only 3-5), and will then reopen on January 2 through 14th with the same hours.

For Pilot Pale Ale, your only option may be upstairs in the Chiles Center (on the team bench side) starting at 6 o'clock before the 7 o'clock tip this coming Tuesday. You'll be able to purchase a meal (often pasta, but they are varying it this year) and beer/wine....and hopefully they'll have Pilot Pale Ale.

Seattle is undefeated at home (7-0, but 3 of those were against non-D1 opponents.....sound familiar?).

The biggest problem for the young Pilots (a team that practiced sporadically this week due to finals) will be Seattle U's offense....all 5 of their starters average in double-figures resulting in an average score of 81 points per game, while their opponents have averaged 73 points.

Compared to UP, Seattle U. is big. The starters are 7-3, 6-8, 6-8, 6-4, 6-4, and a concern for the Pilots will be Phil getting in foul trouble tussling with the 7-3 guy, who is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Seattle U. is outrebounding their opponents 37-30 per game, but their biggest upside against the Pilots may be there ability to knock-down 80% of their free-throws. In the "olden days" 80% wouldn't seem great, but this year it is 7th in the nation, while the Pilots are 336th with 63% of their free-throws going through.

There are 7 WCC games today, and the UP vs. Seattle U. game is the only one there are no Las Vegas odds on, but most prognosticators are predicting a 8-10 point win for the Redhawks. If the Pilots can start hitting from the outside again and stay out of foul trouble (tough to do on the road), they'll have a chance!

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:Not to hijack this thread, since I know that we are playing Seattle U tonight, but I am REALLY excited to be able to go to my first Pilot game in two years on Tuesday when we play Hartford. So, I have some questions: what is the deal with the Pilot House and food options before hand? Will that be available for the Hartford game? Where can I get this Pilot Pale Ale? Is the bookstore still open?

Thanks everyone in advance.

I'm looking forward to catching a stream of tonight's game. I think this game and the Hartford game are going to be really tough games for us. ESPN's (garbage) matchup predictor isn't giving us much of a chance tonight. Hartford is supposedly a strong team, but I haven't had the time to look into them too much yet.

Hartford isn't a strong team. #326 in Pomeroy. Should be a win for the Pilots which is good because conference play is going to be rough.