2016 RB Speed Scores

By: Devin Sperle

Speed. It's the single, most-identifiable trait when evaluating skill position players. This is even more true when evaluating running back talent. We want prospects that show that burst of speed to get through the line. We need to see that ability to turn on the jets and outrun defenders.

We've been told time and time again to be wary of 40-yard dash times when evaluating prospects because these times are not necessarily indicative of how speed can translate to NFL play. That is where the Speed Score Formula comes in. Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders developed the formula, and /u/lawofmurphy of Reddit has done several reiterations of it during the last few years. The formula is as follows:

(200 x Player Weight) / (40-time ^4)

The theory is that 40 times are intrinsically tied to a player's weight. This is a concept that makes logical sense; a player that weighs less should be able to run faster than a player that weighs more. A speed score of 100 is considered "Average" for an NFL-quality RB. Scores below that threshold are "Sub-par" and scores above it are "Good." A score above 120 is "Extremely Impressive."

Excluding Todd Gurley, who didn't run at the combine last year, the top combine speed scores belonged to Karlos Williams (114), David Johnson (109), Jeremy Langford (109), and Melvin Gordon (103). While we can't attribute Karlos Williams' excellent rookie campaign entirely to his speed score, I have little doubt that it was a contributing factor. Rarely do we see a RB drafted in the 5th round have such an immediate impact for his team.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Ka'deem Carey posted a speed score of 85 two years ago. When you compare the scores of him and Langford, it's easy to see why Langford so quickly rose up the depth chart and overtook Carey as the second back.

I decided to calculate the speed scores for every RB projected to be drafted by CBSSports.com. The results are listed in the table below.

*Indicates player did not run 40 at NFL Combine. Time used from another source.

**Indicates player did not attend NFL Combine. Time used from another source.

Name

College

Weight (lbs)

40 Time

Speed Score

Ezekiel Elliott

Ohio State

225

4.47

113

Derrick Henry

Alabama

247

4.54

116

Devontae Booker*

Utah

219

4.56

101

Kenneth Dixon

Louisiana Tech

215

4.56

99

Alex Collins

Arkansas

217

4.59

98

Jordan Howard*

Indiana

230

4.57

105

Jonathan Williams*

Arkansas

220

4.63

96

Kenyan Drake

Alabama

210

4.45

107

Paul Perkins

UCLA

208

4.54

98

C.J. Prosise

Notre Dame

220

4.48

109

Daniel Lasco

California

209

4.46

106

Tyler Ervin

San Jose State

192

4.41

102

Kelvin Taylor

Florida

207

4.60

92

Josh Ferguson

Illinois

198

4.48

98

DeAndre Washington

Texas Tech

204

4.49

100

Keith Marshall

Georgia

219

4.31

127

Darius Jackson**

Eastern Michigan

220

4.40

117

Tre Madden*

Southern California

223

4.56

103

Wendell Smallwood

West Virginia

208

4.47

104

Aaron Green**

Texas Christian

203

4.53

96

D.J. Foster**

Arizona State

193

4.53

92

Travis Greene**

Bowling Green

200

4.69

83

Marteze Waller**

Fresno State

216

4.67

91

Keenan Reynolds**

Navy

191

4.56

88

Marshaun Coprich

Illinois State

207

4.47

104

Peyton Barber

Auburn

228

4.64

98

After reviewing the results, several players stand out. Ezekiel Elliott (113) and Derrick Henry (116) are projected to be the first two RBs off the board in a few weeks, and their speed scores confirm that they have the speed to succeed at that level of expectations. Most of the other top prospects are right around the average mark, which is what we would expect.

Keith Marshall (127) from Georgia and Darius Jackson (117) from Eastern Michigan are both late round NFL prospects that could be great picks in your dynasty league. I doubt Marshall will fly under the radar since his 40 time was talked about by nearly everyone, but his score of 127 is the highest score I have seen from a prospect. He is definitely worth a flier if you can get him. I actually hadn't heard much about Jackson until writing this article, but I like what I've seen and I would target him in the 4th or 5th round of your rookie draft.

While speed isn't the only important characteristic when evaluating RB talent, it should be considered with every pick. Don't get caught up in the "Ka'deem Carey" type hype and instead look to grab the "Karlos Williams" of the draft.