Assad has pushed this narrative in the hopes of positioning himself as the last bulwark against a jihadist takeover of his country. And even if Assad is eventually pushed out of power, a strong Russian presence in Syria would give the Russians more leverage in determining who succeeds him — and in how that successor views Russia.

Boris Zilberman, a Middle East and Russia expert at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, told Business Insider that “Russian intervention in Syria has been and will continue to be about two things: Propping up their client — Bashar Al-Assad and expanding their military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and expanding Russian influence and power projection in the Middle East.”

The targets hit on Wednesday support this thesis.

“The Homs area is crucial to Assad’s control of western Syria,”Reuters explains. “Insurgent control of that area would bisect the Assad-held west, separating Damascus from the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous, where Russia operates a naval facility.”