Ron Paul nomination is unlikely; now what?

Ron Paul still has plenty of support, as shown in Columbia, Mo., last week. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

By Richard S. Dunham and Samantha Wagner

WASHINGTON — Halfway through the 2012 presidential nominating process, Texas Congressman Ron Paul still hasn’t won a single state and his campaign has been marginalized by political professionals and pundits alike.

“The chances of Paul winning the nomination are clearly all but zero,” said University of Texas pollster Jim Henson, “and his accumulation of delegates is also much less impressive than the expectations.”

Such gloomy talk has done little to slow the Houston-area congressman and his devoted followers, who continue to fight for their cause and, perhaps, a modicum of influence in an unsettled GOP presidential race.

But as Paul’s mathematical chances of victory have dwindled, speculation has grown about his political endgame. Among the possibilities: building a nationwide libertarian political movement that could vie for clout within the Republican Party, influencing the party’s 2012 platform or cementing a strategic alliance to tip the balance of power at the Republican National Convention in August.

Courting delegates

One scenario leaked to the Washington Post and Time magazine by unnamed “insiders” is that the 76-year-old lawmaker from Lake Jackson could team up with front-runner Mitt Romney and help the Massachusetts governor eke out a first-ballot victory at the Republican convention in Tampa.

“Ron Paul’s delegates might be important to Romney in the unlikely, but not remote, chance that Romney fails to obtain 1,144 delegates necessary for the nomination before this summer,” said Rice University political scientist Bob Stein. “Paul might be strategic in this regard, sensing a chance to influence the platform by offering to endorse Romney in May, June or even July in exchange for concessions on the platform.”

The only evidence to back up this theory is circumstantial: Paul has hammered GOP rivals Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich for being political hypocrites but has limited his criticism of Romney to policy disagreements.

“To my knowledge, there has been no discussion between Romney and Paul or their campaigns about endorsements or working together,” said Black, though he added that their families have “great respect and admiration for each other.”

Paul acknowledges he is personally fond of Romney but pooh-poohs talk of some kind of alliance.

“I’ve known him for a long time and, you know, at least we’re respectful of each other, which is somewhat a little bit different than what happens with the other candidates,” he said recently on CNBC.

But even if the candidates would reach a deal, Paul loyalists say they’re not inclined to go along.

“Bottom line: I can’t imagine him asking us to do that,” said Florence Sebern, 50, a Colorado delegate who supports Paul. “If you look at his track record, the man hasn’t violated anything he’s said by his actions in 30 years, so it would be a huge thing. That would be the story of the century — and that’s why I find it to be in the realm of fantasy.”

While back-room deals might be the stuff of fantasy, the other GOP candidates already have started to woo Paul voters, who could sink a Republican nominee by staying home in November or voting for President Barack Obama. Fergus Cullen, a GOP communications consultant, said he considers Paul backers swing voters in a general election.

“The other campaigns seem to view them this way, too,” said the former New Hampshire GOP chairman. “Notice how respectful they are in talking about Paul, and how no one attacks him, even when he says kooky things.”

Continuing movement

Paul says he’s in it to win it — and to fight for the libertarian and non-interventionist causes he holds dear. By amassing several hundred delegates, Paul could be a power broker at a deadlocked convention or a voice in debates over the party’s platform.

But analysts say Paul’s interests may stretch beyond 2012. Although he’s leaving Congress this year, he has built a libertarian movement that may soon be led by his son Rand, a freshman senator from Kentucky.

“As for transferring the mantle, I think that only works when there’s a quality receiver,” said Cullen. “But Rand seems to be that. And, I think Rand is a better communicator and more politically savvy. Rand has potential to expand on his father’s base.”