2003-11-28 04:00:00 PDT Washington -- The Democrats' straightforward attack on Republicans as more conservative than compassionate suddenly got a lot more complicated.

Developments on a range of complex policy matters -- from Medicare to marriage -- have confused rather than clarified distinctions between the two parties, and by most accounts made the Democrats' uphill fight to unseat President Bush and reclaim a majority in Congress an even steeper challenge.

This past week, Republicans were joined by more than a handful of Democrats in passing a $400 billion drug plan for seniors that marked the largest expansion in the liberal Medicare program in its 38-year history. The week before, Democrats running for president had a hard time distinguishing themselves from Republicans when reacting to a Massachusetts court's ruling on gay marriage. As Congress finally adjourned for Thanksgiving, Democrats stood up to Republicans on a pork-laden energy bill, but only after the GOP spent the final hours branding them as obstructionists.

And the week was capped when Bush made a top-secret Thanksgiving Day visit to the troops in Iraq, giving him another chance to appear as commander in chief.

While partisans are able to construct scenarios where each of the events might eventually help Democrats, most neutral observers -- and even many party strategists -- acknowledge that the new terrain favors Republicans.

"A month ago, Bush's re-election looked awfully iffy," said University of Virginia politics Professor Larry Sabato, who handicaps federal elections on his "Crystal Ball" Internet site. "Now, the economy is looking much better, the Medicare package is clearly a plus, and if gay marriage is an issue at all,

it will help the Republicans."

Less than a year from election day, Sabato said, "things are moving in his direction. The only dark cloud on the horizon (for Republicans) is Iraq. They have a lot of work to do there. But if they solve that, I don't see how a Democrat can win."

After campaigning three years ago as a "compassionate conservative," it has been much easier for Bush to brandish his conservative credentials than his compassionate accomplishments. And so, after the Senate approved the Medicare bill on Tuesday, it took the president only a few hours to boast to a group of GOP donors in Las Vegas that he had a new feather in his cap.

"I'm going to continue to advance our agenda of compassionate conservatism," he said, before turning his attention specifically to health care.

"For years, Washington simply listened and did nothing," he said, signaling a message certain to be repeated throughout his campaign. "This historic legislation is the greatest improvement in senior health care coverage since the enactment of Medicare in 1965."

Bush used the word "compassion" no less than nine times in the 20-minute address.

"He is able to seize an issue that Democrats have owned since day one, and make it a bipartisan issue that Republicans can claim credit for. And that alone is worth its weight in political gold," Sabato said.

It will take years to determine whether the Medicare reforms validate Republican claims of improved coverage or confirm Democratic fears that it will undermine seniors' health care. As a political matter, its repercussions are much simpler to assess.

"It takes a kitchen table issue away from Democrats and puts a feather in the cap of Republicans," said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the House Republican campaign committee. "It allows our candidates to tell voters: We have been promising you this for three election cycles, and we have delivered. "

Opponents are in the position of having to explain how the complicated nuances of the 1,000-plus page legislation leaves gaps in coverage and might erode public health down the road.

"They will have their moment just putting out the spin that they do on the bill," House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco said. "But the truth of the bill is that it is a boon for HMOs and pharmaceutical companies, and a setback for seniors in our country."

Early polls show that Americans are divided on the Medicare bill. Curiously, Americans over the age of 65, those whom the bill is specifically aimed at helping, are the most suspicious, with fewer than half saying that Medicare needs a major overhaul, according to a Gallup Poll released last week.

"The passage of the bill definitely gives Bush an easy sound bite," said Doug Hattaway, a Democratic consultant who worked on Al Gore's presidential campaign. "It definitely helps Bush check a box and say he's accomplished something, even if the bill is full of scary provisions that seniors don't like."

However, just as his made-for-television moment on the aircraft carrier to announce "mission accomplished" in Iraq has come back to haunt him, Democrats said the Medicare bill will backfire, perhaps in time for election day.

"Bush of all people should know that today's glowing photo op can be tomorrow's chain around his neck," said Democratic strategist Jenny Backus, pointing out that most of its provisions won't take effect until 2006. "Seniors are going to go to the voting booth on election day with nothing to show for it."

The gay marriage issue -- foisted onto the political scene by the Massachusetts high court that struck down a state ban on same-sex marriages --

also robs Democrats of a clear-cut distinction with Republicans.

Intolerance for gays and lesbians among some Republicans, particularly religious conservatives, has hurt the party's efforts at inclusion, and turned off centrist voters who may see tolerance for gays as a litmus test for other civil liberty issues. However, when it comes to same-sex marriage, the top six Democratic presidential candidates all oppose it, just like Bush.

Some strategists believe concerns over gay marriage -- polls suggest Americans oppose it by a 2-1 margin -- will solidify support for the GOP throughout the South and in more conservative regions in the Midwest and the West.

"This is the kind of issue that galvanizes conservatives," said Frank Newport, the editor of the Gallup Poll, which found that only the younger-than- 30 age group supports gay marriage.

The issue contains perils for both parties. Just as some liberals are angered at Democratic presidential candidates for not standing up for what they regard as a basic civil right, there are many conservatives who are pushing Bush to support a constitutional amendment barring same-sex marriage that was introduced this week by three Republican senators.

A high-profile push for such an amendment risks turning off millions of voters, who not only disagree on the merits but also will see it as a distraction from more pressing issues such as Iraq and the economy.

"There is a big downside for those who make it a big issue," said Hattaway, who has worked on the topic with the Human Rights Campaign, the nation's largest gay and lesbian lobbying group.

As Congress adjourned for Thanksgiving, the rhetoric on the campaign trail suggests that Democrats are not about to ease up on their Republican opponents.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, the party's front-runner for the presidential nomination, called the Medicare reform an "election-year gimmick" and "the quintessential special interests bill."

It may be. But after Republicans agreed to spend $400 billion on the nation's elderly over the next 10 years, such labels will require some explaining.