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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

THE ECONOMY: Mass. job growth was 4 times greater than estimates

Massachusetts added nearly 40,000 jobs in 2011, four times the revised employment estimates reported earlier this year by federal officials, according to an analysis of newly released data by the University of Massachusetts.

The new data, a census of Massachusetts employers compiled by the US Labor Department, offers the most complete and reliable snapshot of the state’s labor markets. It showed that the state created jobs at about the same pace as the nation last year.

“I guess we’re in middle of the pack in terms of job growth,” said Alan Clayton-Matthews, an economist at Northeastern University. “I wouldn’t jump for joy over the performance in 2011, but I wouldn’t be dismayed about it either.”

The analysis was published Thursday in the UMass economic journal MassBenchmarks. Earlier this year, the Labor Department dramatically lowered estimates of the state’s job gains in 2011 to just 9,100 — a figure that many local economists doubted because other indicators, such as tax collections, suggested much stronger growth.

Information from that census only becomes available months later, and neither the third- nor the fourth-quarter data were available when the Labor Department did its 2011 revisions in the beginning of the year. After the third-quarter data were released in April and UMass did a similar analysis, Labor Department officials acknowledged their revisions were probably wrong.Those revisions were based on incomplete data for 2011. The Labor Department first estimates job growth based on a monthly survey of employers, which can have a wide margin of error. It later reconciles those estimates with payroll data from a census of employers in the state unemployment insurance system.

They will use the additional information to further revise the 2011 figures next year.

The latest data are from the fourth-quarter census of employers. It showed the state economy

slowed during that period, shedding 3,000 jobs, according to the UMass analysis. Those losses were more than offset by gains of about 26,000 jobs in the third quarter.

“The data tells us it has been a really steady recovery instead of a sluggish one in Massachusetts,” said Martin Romitti, managing editor of MassBenchmarks and an economist at the UMass Donahue Institute. “It’s been a steady climb, but everybody’s worried about what’s ahead as well.”

Those worries include the economic crisis in Europe, which threatens to pull the global economy into recession, and a stalemate in Congress that could lead to big budget cuts and tax increases that could derail the US recovery.

Romitti said job growth in 2012 may not be as solid as last year’s, particularly if national or global economies continue to slow. Massachusetts is particularly vulnerable to the economic crisis in Europe because about 40 percent of the state’s foreign exports are sold there.

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About Roberta

Roberta Stone works with Keller Williams Realty. This site is about Real Estate in the Boston Metropolitan Area and features news and information about a wide range of home ownership issues. Let's make this a dialogue about your housing needs.

I specialize in representing clients in the purchases and sales of single-family residences, condominiums, and multifamily properties in the Boston, Brookline, Newton and Cambridge markets; specifically the Boston neighborhoods of Jamaica Plain, Roslindale, South End, Back Bay and West Roxbury.
I have been a real estate professional since 1995 with a personal sales volume of over $200 million dollars and many industry awards, including the William Raveis President's Club for 2010, Chairman's Elite Club, for 2006 and 2007, top listing agent in my office 2009 & 2010, and the 2003, 2004 and 2005 at Prudential Real Estate. Known for innovative internet marketing; you will find that I have comprehensive tools for both buying and selling real estate.