AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED AHURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANEWATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDERWITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THENICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORMWARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OFNICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIASA DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AHURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

From the US Embassy in Belize:This is just an 'advisory' as there are not any definite signs at this time that Belize will be hit by Beta.

The following information was received form US SOUTHCOM, Miami on 28 October:

Torrential rainfalls and damaging winds associated with Tropical Storm Beta are expected to occur over Nicaragua, Honduras and areas of El Salvador, BELIZE, Guatemala, Panama and Costa Rica. This storm has the POTENTIAL to track toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula as well.

conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate Beta hasbecome much better organized during the past 6 hours and hasstrengthened into the 13th hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season. A29/0211z SSMI overpass that was not available for the previousadvisory revealed a very small eye embedded within the strongestconvection... which means Beta was probably a hurricane at 00z. Thecurrent intensity of 70 kt is a blend of Dvorak satellite intensityestimates of t4.5/77 kt from TAFB and t4.0/65 kt from SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/03. The centerposition has been difficult to locate until the past hour when aneye feature/pronounced warm spot became apparent in infraredimagery north of Providencia island. The overall motion...however...Has been very slow and Beta may even be stationary. The compacthurricane is currently trapped in a weakness in the subtropicalridge that lies across the Greater Antilles... western CaribbeanSea... and Central America. Most of the NHC models continue tooverestimate the strength of the ridge over Central America andinsist on driving Beta west-southwest or southwestward acrosssouthern Nicaragua and into the eastern Pacific. However... theyhave been advertising this motion for nearly 3 days now and ithasn't happened yet. The exceptions have been the UKMET... Canadianand some of the simpler statistical models... which have been takingBeta across or just north of extreme northeastern Nicaragua an intothe Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel. Those models have hada northward bias and also a fast speed bias. The shortwave troughcurrently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is inducing theweakness in the subtropical ridge should continue to move eastwardacross Florida and into the Atlantic during the next 24 hours. Thisshould allow the ridge to the north of Beta to gradually buildwestward and slowly nudge the hurricane into Nicaragua. Theofficial forecast track is close to the previous track and liesbetween the two extremes in the model guidance mentioned earlier.

The upper-level outflow pattern remains well established and thevertical shear is forecast to weaken below 10 kt by 24 hours. Thevery warm SSTs and the unusually moist mid-levels of the atmosphereare conducive to Beta rapidly intensifying... if cold upwellingdoes not occur beneath the slow moving cyclone. It is possible thatBeta could become a strong category 2 or even a category 3hurricane before it makes landfall along the coast of Nicaragua.

Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropicalcyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of CentralAmerica...primarily Nicaragua... causing considerable damage... andlife-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition... someof the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta may get drawninto a developing winter-type low pressure system over the Gulf ofMexico... resulting in strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfallacross Cuba... Florida... and portions of the southeastern U.S. Bythe middle of next week.

an 1140z trmm overpass shows that Beta has a pinhole eye underneathits central dense overcast...which has convective tops of -80c justeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt fromTAFB...65 kt from SAB...and 55 kt from AFWA. Based on these and onthe eye size...the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt.

The initial motion remains 320/3...and over the past few hours Betamay be moving a little left of that. Water vapor imagery showsthat the shortwave trough that was over the eastern United Statesyesterday has moved into the Atlantic...with surface observationsand rawinsonde data showing rising pressures behind the trough. The dynamical models forecast this trend to continue for 24-36hr...which should cause Beta to turn more westward on the southside of the narrow but strengthening ridge. While there continuesto be spread between the more northward UKMET and the moresouthward GFS...the dynamical models agree that Beta will makelandfall in about 24 hr in eastern or northeastern Nicaragua. Thenew forecast track is an update of the previous package...callingfor a gradual westward turn during the first 24 hr and a westwardmotion across Nicaragua and Honduras thereafter. The new track isjust north of the model consensus and a bit slower.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicate that theeasterly vertical shear has decreased since yesterday...and therapid intensification index attached to the SHIPS model is showinga 62 percent chance of 25 kt or more strengthening during the next24 hr. Confidence in this happening is increased by the presenceof the pinhole eye. Both SHIPS and the GFDL bring Beta to 95 kt bylandfall...and the intensity forecast will follow that. However...there is a good chance that Beta will get stronger than forecastand make landfall as a major hurricane. After landfall...Betashould weaken and eventually dissipate over the mountains ofCentral America.

Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropicalcyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of CentralAmerica...primarily Nicaragua and Honduras...causing considerabledamage...and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Inaddition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Betamay get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure systemover the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OFHONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANEWARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. AHURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OFNICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THENICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FORTHE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDERWITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COASTOF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDINGLA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AHURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHINTHE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSOABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ONTHE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EASTOF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR. THISGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEEDDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OFBETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBYISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETAIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL INNICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREEHURRICANE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ISPOSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTHOF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ONPROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THECENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY.

reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraftinvestigating Beta have found maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of77 kt just north of the center. The central pressure extrapolatedfrom the aircraft dropsondes is 979 mb...and a 10 N mi wide eye ispresent. The eye has been intermittently seen in satelliteimagery...with the deep convection mostly to the east of the eye atthis time. The initial intensity is 80 kt based on a combinationof aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates.

Beta has swung to the left during the past 6-12 hr and the initialmotion is now 280/4. As pressures continue to build north of thehurricane...it should continue a slow westward to west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hr until dissipation overland. The new forecast track is shifted south of the previoustrack based on the initial postion and motion. It should be notedthat the GFS...GFDL...and GFDN want to take Beta west of south intothe Pacific. Given that these models have been too fast to turnBeta westward...the forecast track will stay to the north of thesemodels...being just north of the model consensus.

Although the deep convection is currently somewhat asymmetric...theoverall satellite appearance of the hurricane is improving. Withthe favorable outflow and the small eye...there is still a goodchance of a burst of rapid intensification before landfall. TheGFDL makes Beta a major hurricane in 12-18 hr...and it seems likelythat winds will reach 95-105 kt before landfall. Beta shouldweaken after landfall and eventually dissipate over the mountainsof Honduras in 72-96 hr.

Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropicalcyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of CentralAmerica...primarily Nicaragua and Honduras...causing considerabledamage...and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Inaddition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Betamay get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure systemover the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

...CORE OF BETA GRADUALLY NEARING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OFNICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THENICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANEWARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OFHONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA DISCONTINUED THEHURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FORTHE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDERWITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COASTOF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDINGLA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AHURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHINTHE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OFPUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THISGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THISMOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF HURRICANE BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERNCOAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLYSUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL INNICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJORHURRICANE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ISPOSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTHOF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ONPROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETAMOVES AWAY.

...HURRICANE BETA HEADING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH 105 MPHWINDS...COULD BECOME STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OFNICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THENICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANEWARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OFHONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FORTHE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDERWITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COASTOF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDINGLA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AHURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHINTHE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THISGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF BETA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUAEARLY SUNDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADYAFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVEINCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA ISNOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE ISA CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANEBEFORE LANDFALL.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ISPOSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTHOF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITHTOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES ANDPROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25INCHES.

infrared satellite images indicate that Beta is currentlyintensifying and becoming dangerous. T-numbers have increased to 5.0on the Dvorak scale and the objective T-numbers are on the upwardtrend. It appears that Beta has a small eye embedded within verydeep circular convection. The initial intensity has been increasedto 90 knots and there is about 12 hours for Beta to furtherintensify to category 3 status before landfall in Nicaragua earlySunday. Thereafter...the hurricane should weaken over the highterrain of Central America.

The anticipated westward motion is already in place and this turnwas brilliantly forecast by the GFDL and by most of the globalmodels. Now that Beta is moving westward or even south of due westat 4 to 5 knots...it is more certain that the cyclone is alreadytrapped within the easterly flow south of the developing ridge.This steering pattern calls for a continuation of a general westwardmotion until dissipation.

the eye became more clearly defined in GOES infrared imageryovernight and at 06z was surrounded by a solid ring of very deepconvection with tops colder than -80c. The eye is so small...however... that SSMI imagery from a 29/0156z overpass barelyresolved it. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from allclassifying agencies at 06z increased to t5.5/102 kt. Since thattime the cloud tops have warmed somewhat... but the eye is stilldiscernible. There is not any obvious reason why the intensity wasnot 100 kt at 06z... and the advisory intensity is also set to 100kt since the winds might not yet have decreased in response to thevery recent weakening of the convection. Beta is the eighth majorhurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season... although given currenttrends it could weaken and reach the coastline of Nicaragua as acategory two. This small hurricane should weaken fairly rapidlyduring the next day or two over the rugged terrain of CentralAmerica.

A west-southwestward motion at about 7 kt has become establishedovernight... and there does not seem to be any reason why Beta willslow down soon... so landfall on the East Coast of Nicaragua isimminent. Most of the dynamical models bring the center of Betaacross Nicaragua during the next couple of days and then forecastat least a remnant low pressure system to emerge into the easternPacific Ocean. Since Beta is such a small hurricane and theterrain of Nicaragua so rugged... the official forecast will callfor the depression to dissipate in 24 hours or less and for theremnant low to dissipate before reaching the eastern Pacific. Itis possible... however... that whatever is left of Beta in a fewdays could at some point lead to regeneration in the Pacific.

Beta will bring torrential rainfall to portions of CentralAmerica... primarily Nicaragua and Honduras... likely leading tolife-threatening flash floods and mud slides which could causeconsiderable damage. The torrential rains could continue wellinland and many hours after landfall... even after the windsassociated with Beta weaken.

Some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta could bedrawn into a developing extratropical low pressure system over theGulf of Mexico in a few days.