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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

POLL: Latino voters still need to be swayed

Women, Independents and Latinos: How Do Romney and Obama Fare with Each?

By Stella Manrique Rouse, Assistant Professor of Government and Politics, University of Maryland Latino Decisions

WASHINGTON D.C. -- In
the “Hope and Change” presidential campaign of 2008, Barack Obama
struck a chord with many groups. Besides overwhelming support from
African Americans, he was also able to court three other crucial groups:
women, independents, and Latinos. However, four years later, the
mystique of the “Hope and Change” mantra has dissipated and like much of
the population at-large, these three groups have had their share of
political disappointments with the President. In a drastically changed
political environment, Obama must now run a campaign on substance rather
than style and must defend his presidential record to, among others,
these three key demographics. An important question then is, given
circumstances and the alternative choice; could women, independents, and
Latinos be up for grabs? A look at the poll numbers suggests that the
“trifecta” may be hard to attain for either candidate.

Is the Gender Gap Narrowing in the 2012 Presidential Election?

Women
have been at the center of political discussion over the last few
months for a number of reasons. First, in February came the debate over
whether Catholic hospitals and educational institutions were obligated
to provide contraceptive coverage to employees (Bowers 2012).
Rush Limbaugh also created a firestorm when he verbally attacked a
Georgetown student who supported contraception coverage by her
healthcare provider (Boroff 2012).
Then, in a move that gave political ammunition to Republicans,
Democratic adviser Hilary Rosen stated that Ann Romney (who raised five
sons) “had never worked a day in her life” (Kucinich and Moore 2012).
How are these issues playing out with women? Have Republicans made
inroads with women voters? The graph below displays the results of a
national poll conducted in mid-April of how women judge Barack Obama and
Mitt Romney on gender-related issues, general issues, and
characteristics of the two candidates.

Source: CNN/ORC poll conducted on April 13-15, 2012; results of
women-only sample. “Other” category refers to respondent selecting
“neither,” “no opinion,” or “both.” Some categories do not equal
one-hundred due to rounding.

Despite
the perceived fallout from the Hilary Rosen controversy, it does not
appear the gender gap is significantly narrowing. On the major issues
that matter to women, Democrats hold a comfortable lead. This same poll
asked women who they were more likely to vote for and 55 percent favored
Obama to 39 percent for Romney, numbers essentially unchanged from the
2008 election (55 percent versus 43 percent).

Can Romney Persuade Independents?

This
year, there are several issues that will influence how independents
cast their vote. In particular, independents are very concerned about
the state of the economy and the rising costs of healthcare. On these
issues, President Obama does not fare particularly well with a majority
of independents disapproving of how he has handled these issues in his
first term (Zeleny and Sussman 2012). A quarter of the independents that supported Obama in 2008 voted for a Republican candidate in the 2010 midterm elections (Madhani 2012).
The 2012 presidential election may hinge on which candidate can capture
these independents and disillusioned independents could embrace Romney
in 2012.

Where
do these independent voters currently stand on the two presidential
candidates and how do they view Obama and Romney on important issues?

Source:
Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted on
April 29-May3, 2012. Some categories do not equal one-hundred due to
rounding.

Romney
currently holds an edge with independents on the majority of the
categories listed above; in particular two of the most important
categories for independents—“better handle healthcare” and “better
handle job as president.” Most promising for Romney (and concerning for
Obama) is that the poll asked independent respondents who they were most
likely to vote for and 48 percent favored Romney compared to 38 percent
for Obama who received 52 percent of the independent vote in 2008.

Romney’s Latino Challenge Does Not Bank the Latino Vote for Obama

The
largest of the three groups discussed and the one that has the most
potential to deliver an election victory for either of the two
candidates is Latinos. However, neither candidate seems to be truly
dedicated to wooing Latino voters. President Obama has fallen short on
many of the promises he made to Latinos back in 2008 (e.g. no follow
through on the Dream Act and no comprehensive immigration reform). He
has further aggravated his relationship with Latinos by pursuing an
aggressive enforcement immigration policy featuring increased
deportations (Slevin 2010).

Romney
has not exactly been a champion for Latinos either. In fact, he has run
hard to the right on many of the issues that matter to Latinos, for
example, by stating that he would veto the DREAM Act and by calling
Arizona’s immigration law a “model” (Todd, et al 2012).
Now as the presumptive nominee Romney would like to move to the center
and try to win over Latino support. How he plans to do this is not
exactly clear. What do Latinos think about the candidates and the
parties and their efforts to reach out to them?

The
first chart reveals that Latinos have certainly lost a great deal of
enthusiasm for Obama over his first Presidential term. Also, the second
chart indicates that Latinos are not as enthusiastic about coming out to
vote this year as they were in 2008. These numbers strongly suggest
that Obama has work to do if he is going to mobilize Latinos in the
fall. One additional noteworthy question from the same poll is that
Latinos were asked how well each Party, Democrats and Republicans, does
in reaching out to them.

The
poll shows some interesting results. 39 percent of respondents said the
Democratic Party does a good job of reaching out to Latinos, while only
17 percent said the same of the Republican Party. However, the “don’t
care” category was much closer for both parties with 37 percent of
respondents stating that the Democratic Party does not care about them
and 45 percent of respondents saying the same about the Republican
Party. Clearly both parties have much work to do with Latinos.

Latino
respondents were also asked who they were most likely to vote for—67
percent favored Obama compared to 25 percent for Romney, basically
unchanged from the 2008 vote. These numbers do not look good for
Romney’s ability to win over Latinos, but this support only turns into
an Obama victory with enthusiastic turnout.

The Crucial Groups: Turnout will be Key

Women,
independents, and Latinos will be three key demographics to look out
for in November. Some of these groups will play more pivotal roles in
some states. In particular, independents and Latinos could be crucial to
deciding the election in states like Colorado, Florida, Arizona, and
Pennsylvania.

A
very recent poll shows Romney and Obama in a virtual tie with 49
percent of Americans supporting Obama and 46 percent supporting Romney (Liptak 2012).
This is all the more reason to believe that the November turnout of
these three groups will be critical to the candidates and the outcome of
the election. The results from the various polls presented above show
that each group is complex and diverse and requires a unique strategy
and commitment from the candidates. Absent this commitment, a group may
demobilize and stay home in November. How well can Obama mobilize
support among these groups and attain the enthusiastic support that
ensured his victory in 2008? Will Romney be able to make inroads among
women and Latinos and sustain or expand the support he currently has
among independents? The questions surrounding these three groups—women,
independents and Latinos— and how candidates (and parties) engage them
remains both immediate and long term political theater.

Stella Manrique Rouse
is an Assistant Professor of Government and Politics at the University
of Maryland and a Research Fellow at the Center for American Politics
and Citizenship. She has a forthcoming article, “Shades of Faith:
Religious Foundations of Political Attitudes Among African Americans,
Latinos and Whites” in the American Journal of Political Science. Follow
her on twitter @ Stella_Rouse

The
commentary of this article reflect the views of the author and do not
necessarily reflect the views of Latino Decisions. Latino Decisions and
Pacific Market Research, LLC make no representations about the accuracy
of the content of the article.