The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The ghoulish Barn Owl is highly appreciated as a nesting bird. Family groups are welcome around silos and other outbuildings because they are such voracious devourers of rodents. The species is less well known on the wintering grounds—forecast by Audubon's climate model to expand by nearly a quarter by 2080. As expected, the general shift predicted by the model is northward, all the way to southern Canada, where the Barn Owl currently is rare even in summer. Although the winter model portends a potential bright future for this owl, caution is warranted. Changing land-use practices and excessive use of rodenticides have diminished Barn Owl populations, and will continue to do so if not reversed or mitigated.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.