In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary for man to understand multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems until very recent historical times. Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental skill needed to properly interpret the dynamic behavior of the systems of which we have now become a part.

J. W. Forrester, 1971

Saturday, May 20, 2017

“We will pay any price, bear any burden, support any friend, and oppose any foe to ensure the success of liberty.” These words of President Kennedy from his inaugural address might raise the question of just what, exactly, is the price of liberty?

Were I to ask you what you think was the most important event in the 20th century, I’d like to think most of you would come up with something more significant than Princess Diana’s death – which is what 30% of the people in a recent survey said was the 20th century’s “most memorable” event.

I think it could be argued that the most important event of the 20th Century was the First World War. It was most important because of the impact the War had on Europe and the rest of the World. It is fitting, therefore, that we look back one hundred years and try to understand this war and how it continues to impact the world today.

The First World War, or the Great War, as it was called before it was surpassed by the Second, has captured my fascination. As a professional soldier, I have tried to understand how men could keep on under the appalling conditions they found themselves in on the Western Front.

Today, I’d like to share with you some of the things I’ve done and seen in the past several years, as I tried to understand what some historians consider the real beginning of the 20th century.

The first question we might think about is “Why did the war happen?” Was it the system of alliances? The growth of military capability? The fact Europe had almost a century of mostly peace? What was it that caused this war?

Several years ago, when I was a student at the Naval War College in Newport, RI, my history professor said that the Great War happened because “No great power said it wouldn’t!” Not the Austrians, or the Russians, or the Germans, or the French, or the British.

I’ve seen the car in which Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie were riding when they were assassinated in Sarajevo--it’s in the Military Museum in Vienna. Once I went to Artstetten, their palace an hour and a half west of Vienna. There I was taken on a private tour of the museum, which is what it is now and was shown the crypts where the Archduke, and his wife laid to rest. My escort was the great-grandson of Archduke Ferdinand.

I went to Bad Ischl and toured the hunting lodge of Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph – it was he who declared war on Serbia. I’ve stood behind the desk on which he kicked off the chain of events that ultimately cost 60 million lives–when you consider the 50 million killed in WWII.

As important as these were, though, no understanding of the Great War is complete without seeing the battlefields. As many of you surely know, after a few initial months, the Western Front was stabilized along a 400-mile front from the North Sea to Switzerland. The trenches were, in some cases, only 50 meters apart and almost never more than a few hundred. In between was a term coined from that war: “no man’s land.”

It is possible to walk the trench lines from the Belgium Coast to Switzerland, because in many places the trenches are still there. If they aren’t, you can just follow the cemeteries; over 160 in one battlefield alone.

By 1916, the War had become a war of attrition, and the Germans decided to attack on the salient around Verdun, in NW France. The strategy was to attack a place the French would have to defend and to “bleed them white.” Nowhere on the Western Front does the magnitude of the war hit home like it does at Verdun. I’ve been there three times–in 1983, 2001, and again in 2014. OK, I admit—I’m a little strange!

The trenches are there; so are the forts. During the battle not a tree was left standing; afterwards, the government planted trees, but no one can go for a picnic in these forests. Actually, signs prohibit you from leaving the roads –the woods are simply filled with unexploded ordnance.

The battle for Verdun raged from February to November 1916, and it almost destroyed the French Army. Virtually every French regiment fought there, and when the war was over, the French build the largest war memorial I’ve ever seen to house the bones of those killed on the surrounding hills.

15,000 are buried in front of the Ossuary (literally a place for burying bones), each with a cross that says, “Mort por la France” – died for France.

After the war, all the bones were dug up from the shallow graves around Verdun – both French and German – and buried in the basement of the Ossuary. If you get on your hands and knees, you can look into the windows and see the bones.

How many do you think are there? Remember, these are all unknown. Would 10,000 sound like a lot? 30,000? How about 50,000 (about what we lost in a dozen years in Vietnam)? Would you believe 130,000 unknown? That was the price of liberty at Verdun.

A few years ago, I had the chance to visit the Somme River valley. The very word has a special meaning to the British. To relieve pressure on Verdun, the high command decided a joint British-French offensive would be launched on the first of July 1916. The French didn’t have many divisions to contribute (only 3), so the British put in 17. To an impartial observer, there could scarcely have been a poorer place chosen for the British to attack. The Germans had been dug in for almost two years, constructing deep bunkers and communications lines.

Nevertheless, on the first of July, 1916, the forces of the British Empire went “over the top.” There had seldom been a slaughter in the history of warfare to compare with the losses the British suffered. Of 100,000 men who attacked, roughly 20,000 were killed on that single day –with another 40,000 wounded ---60% casualties.

You can visit the Canadian Newfoundland Memorial at the Somme. It is superbly kept. The trenches are there; between them are the shell holes. Sheep keep the grass down, so you can see what the ground looked like. Three hundred yards away are the German trenches; they’re maintained. as well. I walked where the Canadians launched their attack, then I moved to the other side, a couple hundred yards away, to see what the Germans saw.

The question that I could not answer was, “How could troops continue to attack in the face of such resistance?” One company attacked kicking a soccer ball. They announced in advance:

The Great European CupThe Final East Surreys v. BavariansKickoff at Zero.

The First Newfoundland Regiment ceased to exist. That was the price of liberty the Canadians paid.

The British erected two great monuments to the War in the 1920s. One is called, “The Missing of the Somme.” Imagine a four-sided horseshoe magnet rising from the battlefield, inscribed with the names of those killed there who, in Kipling’s words, “Lie in no known graves.” How many names do you think are on that monument? Remember, this is just one battle –July-November 1916. Would you believe 73,400? And this is just British and South African troops, the Canadians and ANZACS had their own monuments.

I was struck by the poppies at the monument, when I was there. School children and great grandchildren come to pay their respects. In the British Military Museum in London, I came across a letter from a British trooper. He said, “If you get this letter, you’ll know I died doing my duty.” Such was the price of liberty for this family.

Vera Brittain wrote a book about her losses – her brother, her fiancé, and two close friends – it became a best seller. So was Robert Graves’ “Goodbye to All That.”

And so, 1916 came to an end –basically where it started. One of the heroes of Verdun was put in command of a French Army in the middle of the line. He decided to attack in April of 1917, and the French Army was slaughtered – the Germans again had the high ground. I toured their underground fortifications. The French Army mutinied – not mentioned much anymore. 23,000 were convicted of mutiny after Chamin de Dames; 432 condemned to death; 50 executed. The French never attacked again. They waited for the Americans.

As bad as the Somme was, it was worse at Passchendale in 1917. The British held the Belgium town of Ypres throughout the war. Three battles were fought there, with the greatest in 1917. Never in the history of warfare has a battle been fought under more appalling conditions. The entire battlefield was a swamp. If a soldier stepped off the duckboards, he’d probably drown, being weighed down with all his equipment.

The British attacked in the summer of 1917 and kept on attacking until, months later, they reached the high ground three miles away. Thirty-five men were killed for each meter of ground gained. The most famous poem of the war came out of this battle:

In Flanders Fields, the poppies blow, Beneath the crosses, row on row; And in the sky, the larks bravely singing fly, Scarcely heard amid the guns below.

I was in Ypres in 2001, on Armistice Day. Thousands of Brits were there to pay their respects. At the Menin Gate—the other great British monument—are listed 55,000 names of Commonwealth soldiers who lie in unknown graves. 35,000 additional unknown are listed at Tyne Cot Cemetery—the largest British cemetery in Europe,

Every night at 2000 hours, the Ypres fire brigade plays “The Last Post,” sort of the British “Taps.” They started playing in the 1920s, when the Menin Gate monument was dedicated, and if they play “The Last Post” once an evening for a soldier killed in the Ypres Salient, they’ll play until the 25th century. Such is the price of liberty.

At the Somme and at Ypres, the battlefields keep on killing people. Every spring, unexploded ordnance is plowed up. The farmers stack it beside the road, and explosive ordnance disposal units collect and dispose of it. Every eight years or so, on average, some farmer on a tractor is killed by an explosion.

The bodies keep coming up, too. When I was there, I saw a dozen new graves—bones that had been recently discovered when a contractor was excavating to build a new road. Apparently, the war never ends in France.

I’ve been to Belleau Wood, where the Marines fought so hard the French Government declared that forevermore the woods would be known as the Bois de le Marine. I drank from the bulldog fountain, where Marines filled their canteens. It looks just like it did in 1918. The trenches are still there, but don’t leave the path!

I went to Compeign, where the Armistice was signed in a railcar-and where Adolf Hitler (who fought at Ypres) made the French surrender in 1940.

So, from the beginning in Sarajevo to the end in Compeign, the Great War consumed its youth. Two million Germans, 1.7 million French, a million British. 35% of those baby boys born from 1882 to 1885.

In every cathedral of France of any significance, there is a simple plaque:

“To the Glory of God and in memory of one million men of the British Empire who died in the Great War, and of whom the greater number rest in France.”

That was the price of liberty.

So, what was the long-term impact of the Great War? Politically, it destroyed the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and the Turkish Ottoman Empire. It led directly to the establishment of the Soviet Union. It also led to the rise of Hitler’s Germany and the Second World War. It destroyed empires and led to the creation of the League of Nations and new countries throughout the world. And it led to the United States becoming a world power for the first time. The modern Middle East looks like it does today because of the War.

Socially, the war led to the emancipation of women and largely to their entrance into the work force. It also led to a sense of loss of innocence—no longer would people think that civilization was on a steady path to improvement. In some places—think Britain—it led to pacifism.

On this day, here in the safety of the Tri-Cities, it is fitting for us who live in safety and freedom to remember those of a lost generation who fought for God, and King, and Country—and for the liberty we enjoy.

Monday, May 8, 2017

House Bill 1783 is about giving people a fair chance to get back on their feet once they get out of prison. Our current system prevents offenders from being able to get their lives back on the right track. The bill prioritizes restitution and establishes a more rational standard for determining ability to pay. Imposing intereston legal financial obligations (LFOs) was first thought to be an incentive for offenders topay, but instead it has been shown to be an impediment. The current 12 percent interest rate is onerous and makes the LFO debt skyrocket. This results in what amounts to a debtors' prison. H.B. 1783 would change this. The bill is currently in the State Senate as E2SHB 1783.

We want offenders to rebuild their lives once they are released from prison. There are many barriers to reentry, but LFOs are one of the hardest to overcome. Ask your state senator to support E2SHB 1783.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Unlike the Americans, French voters were too smart to be swayed by far right dirty tricks. They get a smart, good-looking, sane guy with a whip smart wife as president. We get Donald Trump and Melania. BTW, Trump is 24 years older than Melania, which is the same age difference between Macron and his wife, Brigitte, only the age differential is reversed. Thus, it's "scandalous."

On February 24, 2017, President Trump signed Executive Order 13777,
“Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda,” which established a federal
policy “to alleviate unnecessary regulatory burdens” on the American
people.

Section 3(a) of the EO directs federal agencies to establish a
Regulatory Reform Task Force (Task Force). One of the duties of the Task
Force is to evaluate existing regulations and “make recommendations to
the agency head regarding their repeal,
replacement, or modification.” The EO further asks that each Task Force
“attempt to identify regulations that:

(i) Eliminate jobs, or inhibit job creation;(ii) are outdated, unnecessary, or ineffective;(iii) impose costs that exceed benefits;(iv) create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with regulatory reform initiatives and policies;(v) are inconsistent with the requirements of section 515 of the
Treasury and General Government Appropriates Act, 2001 (44 U.S.C. 3516
note), or the guidance issued pursuant to that provision in particular
those regulations that rely in whole or in part on data, information, or
methods that are not publicly available or that are insufficiently
transparent to meet the standard of reproducibility; or(vi)
derive from or implement Executive Orders or other Presidential
directives that have been subsequently rescinded or substantially
modified.”

I wrote to Caryn Muellerleile, of the EPA Office of Policy requesting further information on the task force and how it would conduct its review. Here is my email, followed by her response.

Dear Ms Muellerleile;

Would you please tell me who the members of the EPA regulations review “task force” are, what their qualifications are, and what scientific techniques they will employ to adjudicate the criterion measures on your website.

Thank you,

/s/

Dear Mr. Badalamente,

Thank you for your interest in EPA’s regulatory reform efforts.

In accordance with Executive Order 13777 on Enforcing the Regulatory Agenda, which is designed to reduce the regulatory burdens agencies place on the American people, EPA has established a Regulatory Reform Officer (RRO) and a Regulatory Reform Task Force. Administrator Pruitt has charged Samantha Dravis, Senior Counsel and Associate Administrator for Policy, to serve as RRO and Ryan Jackson, Chief of Staff, to serve as chairman of the Task Force. Other members of the Task Force include Byron Brown and Brittany Bolen, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Office of Policy Deputy Associate Administrator, respectively.

The Task Force is charged with evaluating existing regulations and making recommendations to the Administrator regarding rules that can be repealed, replaced or modified to make them less burdensome. Their recommendations will be informed by a public participation process that includes state, local and tribal governments, small businesses, consumers, non-governmental organizations and trade associations. At the Administrator’s directive, EPA’s Offices of Air and Radiation, Land and Emergency Management, Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, Water, Environmental Information, Congressional and Intergovernmental Relations and Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization are consulting with their specific stakeholders for their input.

You can find more information about EPA’s regulatory reform activities on ourwebsite.

Note that Ms Muellerleile failed to address my question regarding the qualifications of the task force members, nor the scientific techniques they would emply to judge the merits of the reulations. However, U.S. Senators Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), and Sheldon
Whitehouse (D-R.I.) wrote to EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt in April 2017 demanding answers to this and other questions regarding Pruitt's planned review. They pointed out that Pruitt has placed political appointees in the position of adjudicating what is and
what is not sound science, and wrote;

"Neither you, nor Associate Administrator
for Policy Samantha Dravis, nor Chief of Staff Ryan Jackson, nor Deputy
Chief of Staff Byron Brown, nor Deputy Associate Administrator for
Policy Brittany Bolen, have any meaningful scientific background. We
therefore fail to see how your background will allow for the proper
evaluation of the rigorous methodologies and quality of evidence that
are the foundations of sound science.”

·EPA’s
Regulatory Reform Task Force will fully engage with public health,
consumer protection, and environmental groups, as well as the general
public, in order to better understand the scale and scope of the
benefits associated with each regulation under consideration.

·EPA will make public, on its website, the names and affiliations of all participants that provide input to the Task Force.

·EPA
will transparently disclose its calculations of both costs and benefits
in considering the merits or any particular regulation.

·Political
appointees will not interfere with routine and non-controversial
regulatory actions informed by career EPA scientists acting in the best
interest of the public.

·Going
forward, you will justify all decisions you make that ignore the advice
of EPA scientists with the body of peer-reviewed scientific literature
relied upon in arriving at your decision.

These are worth reiterating in your comments.

Scott Pruitt is counting on the apathy of Americans as he goes about dismantling the agency he sued multiple times. Disappoint him. Comment, and keep fighting!

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So long and thanks for all the fish

So long and thanks for all the fish
So sad that it should come to this
We tried to warn you all but oh dear?

You may not share our intellect
Which might explain your disrespect
For all the natural wonders that
grow around you

So long, so long and thanks
for all the fish

The world's about to be destroyed
There's no point getting all annoyed
Lie back and let the planet dissolve

Despite those nets of tuna fleets
We thought that most of you were sweet

So long, so long, so long and thanks for all the fish

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish (1984, ISBN 0-345-39183-7) is the fourth book of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy tetralogy written by Douglas Adams. Its title is the message left by the dolphins when they departed Planet Earth just before it was demolished to make way for a hyperspatial express route.

Blog Author

Richard Badalamente earned his BS in Aeronautical Engineering from the University of Southern California and MS–Human Factors and PhD-Behavioral Science from Texas Tech. He is an author at http://tinyurl.com/pakn8el