Wednesday update: there has been an eruption alright… of neighbouring Tongariro!

A few years ago my partner and I hiked a six-day tour of Mt Ruapehu. This is a beautiful mountain, probably best known outside of New Zealand for its role as Mount Doom in one of the Lord of the Ring films.To the geological community, it is known as an active volcano which’ eruptions has lead to lahars in the past, sometimes with many fatalities as a result.

The title of this blog post is an exaggeration of the truth, of course, but the fact is that the NZ Department of Conservation has issued a warning:

A Volcanic Alert Bulletin issued today by GNS Science summarising recent measurements at Ruapehu indicates the likelihood of eruptions from the mountain has increased.

There is no certainty that an eruption will take place of course, and I am guessing that the uncertainty cannot be characterised by a probability estimate.