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The Philippines' Leap of Faith

Today's election may not set the country on a better economic path.

Updated May 10, 2010 12:01 a.m. ET

Voters in Asia's oldest democracy today go to the polls to usher out the nine-year era of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Few Filipinos will be sad to see her go, given her spotty economic record and flourishing corruption at almost every level of government and private enterprise. Yet what comes next for 92 million Filipinos is still very much an open question.

One thing is clear: The country is desperate for competent, clean leadership. That's the only way to explain the come-from-nowhere campaign of frontrunner Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III. Until the August death of his famous mother, Cory Aquino, Mr. Aquino professed "not one iota" of interest in running for the nation's highest office. Now most opinion polls give him and his vice presidential pick, Mar Roxas, a 20 percentage-point lead over their nearest rival, former president Joseph Estrada.

Mr. Aquino's campaign has largely rested on the legacy of his famous family, who fought to return the country to democratic rule after decades of dictatorship. To his credit, Mr. Aquino has pledged to uphold similar values of clean governance and an emphasis on poverty reduction.

But like his competitors, Mr. Estrada and property magnate Manuel Villar Jr., Mr. Aquino has said very little about how he would achieve his vision. His campaign platform promises "transformational change" without any coherent economic vision to back it up. Instead he's asked voters to take a leap of faith on a pastiche of socialist promises such as universal insurance, coupled with a mix of capitalist imperatives to boost private-sector competitiveness. This mishmash of ideas has revived national memories of his mother's well-meaning but ultimately terrible economic management.

And so it should: the Philippine economy hasn't progressed much since that era. Some one-tenth of the population has fled overseas to find economic opportunity. Foreign direct investment has collapsed, with the country attracting less than $2 billion in net inflows last year. Rolling brownouts have returned to Manila.

The country also faces renewed threats at home, thanks to years of trying to negotiate with Communist insurgents and Muslim separatists. Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf operates in the country's more lawless territories. And as rampant pre-election violence shows, there's also the larger problem of enforcing basic law and order.

Mrs. Arroyo didn't tackle these problems because she didn't have a coherent program to do so, nor did she enjoy strong political legitimacy. She was brought to office by people power street protests, and her second, closely won election was marred by allegations of fraud.

Assuming no problems with the country's new electronic voting system which is being rolled out today, the next Filipino president shouldn't face the latter problem. That's a good start. But without a serious program of supply-side economic revival, starting with the liberalization of major industries, tax cuts and a real battle against red-tape and corruption, the Philippines may face many more years of hardship.