FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — After what happened in Denver on Saturday, the Texans know the formula for an upset. They need sub-freezing temperatures, some toughness and for two players they once drafted to return to them immediately.

Jacoby Jones and Trindon Holliday, after combining for 264 yards in three plays Saturday, might help.

The Texans also need to force the Hall of Fame quarterback they will face today to make the kind of mistake another Hall of Fame quarterback made Saturday. Then, in overtime, Peyton Manning threw an interception that will haunt him.

The Patriots would never hint at such a thing, and they didn't last week. Then, Brady and the franchise praised those they had pasted 42-14 just two months earlier.

Still, Bill Belichick's phrasing was telling when he talked about the Texans' defense. “It's not a myriad of formations and different personnel groupings and all that,” he said. “They basically have the same guys on the field for a high percentage of the time. This isn't the most complicated team we've ever seen, but what they do, they do well.”

Belichick was saying, in effect, Phillips' schemes are simple, and Belichick can handle simple. He's won the last three times he's faced a Phillips defense, going back to when Phillips was in San Diego.

Sandwiched between that game and the one this season was against the Cowboys. The Patriots, in 2007, went to Texas Stadium in a showdown of 5-0 teams.

Phillips had never looked better in Dallas than before that game. His defense had given up an average of 285 yards in its first five games.

Then, the Patriots gained 448 on their way to 48 points. One memory: During the game, Belichick grabbed a grease board and lectured his linebackers as a position coach would.

The Patriots, at the time, had yet to surrender even one first down.

That's Belichick, ever consumed by the smallest detail. A way to counter him, then, is to scramble the formula itself. The coach who replaced Phillips as the architect of the Dallas defense, Rob Ryan, did a year ago.

Then, the Cowboys went after Brady, sometimes by pulling the nose tackle into coverage. The Cowboys would lose in the final minutes, but Ryan's defense held the Patriots without a point for the first 29 minutes and 38 seconds of the second half.

The Patriots also scored fewer than 30 points that day, breaking a streak of 13 consecutive games. The previous time they had scored fewer than 30 was against Cleveland — when Ryan coached the defense there and the Browns upset the Patriots.

“Rob is awesome,” Marcus Spears said that day in what seemed to be a locker-room chorus. “We play defense the way he coaches it. We love him, absolutely.”

Jerry Jones didn't. Last week, he looked past the injuries and saw Ryan as a problem.

Jones had far more patience with Phillips than he did with Ryan. Jones let Phillips run his defense, and sometimes his team, when there were signs Phillips couldn't. Jones fired Ryan when there were signs he could.

That isn't to diminish Phillips' successes. He frees his players and plays to their passion, and they respond. The Texans finished second in the league in total defense a year ago and seventh this season.

Given that, don't be surprised today when J.J. Watt blows up the best Belichick/Brady idea with a bull rush.

“He builds your confidence, puts you in the right place to make plays,” cornerback Johnathan Joseph told reporters last week about Phillips. “It's just up to the players.”