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ramana, thanks! The SVRDS runs 1000 single-teacher village schools in TN alone and then we will expand to all India as we learn. TN just happens to be most responsive and have this SVRDS which is really well-run.

I think IDRF can handle a budget of, say, $5M or even $10M/year without seriously stretching their existing team and structure.

It is a geometric progression: each village trains 2 or 4 people to do PV and biogas installations, and each team can do 2 villages / week, once in production mode. So we want to keep these people employed and building careers are Energy Specialists, so they don't feel like they have to migrate to cities.

Down the road, we aim to bring cottage industry and enterprises IN the villages instead of taking workers away from the villages. For this we plan to bring in data acquisition & monitoring tech, and IoT. So there is a role here for everyone. Also, the village you help educate today may become your enterprise tomorrow.

It turns out that the India-based Chairman of the company that has been helping the Indian NGO, has personally donated over $200K (dollars!). Other people in the area have made donations of like Rs. 20 Lakhs to set up Skill Training initiatives in colleges run by SVRDS, so they are really "on message" with our Roadmap. Humbling thought, there are really dedicated people out there!

Dispatchable 24 hour Solar electricity cost in Chile has fallen to US Cents 5 per kWh (in last month) using a combination of CSP and PV. This model may not be repeatable elsewhere as Chile has benefit of max sunlight in a day in the world in certain areas. But this indicates cost of US cents 6-8 per kWh for 24 hour dispatchable grid level solar power will be routine in Middle East, India, Sahara region, Australia etc.

Gyan wrote:Dispatchable 24 hour Solar electricity cost in Chile has fallen to US Cents 5 per kWh (in last month) using a combination of CSP and PV. This model may not be repeatable elsewhere as Chile has benefit of max sunlight in a day in the world in certain areas. But this indicates cost of US cents 6-8 per kWh for 24 hour dispatchable grid level solar power will be routine in Middle East, India, Sahara region, Australia etc.

Acording to the above article the latest aution in Rajastan had a price of Rs 2,62 per KWH. That is actually below 5cents. 24 hours supply is fully possible by using Hydroelectric dams, at very nominal costs.

Gyan wrote:If you read last few pages of this thread, you will note that comparison has to be between dispatchable power not intermittent power.

Yes it should be. Nevertheless it is quite and achivement. It is possible to use this power to pump up water in Hydro electric dams, and use it when in demand. The loss is only like 20%. Such power supply is better then constant cispatchale power, as it will be possible to deliver power as it fluctuates. This is not the case with nuclear and coal.

In India coal will continue for large scale power production for another 20 years. Keep smoking the ganja about large scale solar power. These bogus tariff claims will come out in due time based on shoddy estimation. Solar has its place in the energy mix and is not a panacea for all of India's power production problems.

I do not believe that the anyone believes that solar can and will alleviate ALL of India's power problems. As you pointed out, India's power generation will be driven by coal-based plants for the foreseeable future.

What renewables (especially) do have is the ability to temper the load share and thus, the environmental impact of coal-based power generation but also provide individualised micro-power generation systems down the the family/individual level. A couple of solar panels on the roofs of commercial and private buildings will surely help power a few lights/fans in the house and alleviate electricity bills.

India's power requirements will continue to come from a basket of sources- Coal, Hydroelectric, Nuclear, Solar and Wind.

Kashi wrote:I do not believe that the anyone believes that solar can and will alleviate ALL of India's power problems. As you pointed out, India's power generation will be driven by coal-based plants for the foreseeable future.

What renewables (especially) do have is the ability to temper the load share and thus, the environmental impact of coal-based power generation but also provide individualised micro-power generation systems down the the family/individual level. A couple of solar panels on the roofs of commercial and private buildings will surely help power a few lights/fans in the house and alleviate electricity bills.

India's power requirements will continue to come from a basket of sources- Coal, Hydroelectric, Nuclear, Solar and Wind.

All new coal fired plants have been abandoned. 83 000 Mwh of coal power depends in expensive coal imports. They are already uncompetative. Make your own conclusions.

Indian Nirvana lies in Indigenous PHWRs using imported nuclear fuel. But anyway, back to electric cars. The new model of Roadstar and Truck unveiled by Tesla has performance specifications 3 times more than any current vehicle. It seems they have been able to improve battery performance, cost, weight, volume, packing, fitting of batteries into vehicles and power consumption of electric engines by massive margins. Even if the mass production starts around 2022 instead of claimed 2020, it will change the world as we see it.

Kashi wrote:India's power requirements will continue to come from a basket of sources- Coal, Hydroelectric, Nuclear, Solar and Wind.

The basket thing is way past its sell by date. Seems clear now that some combination of solar PV+CST and Wind Onshore/Onshore will end up powering 70% to 80% of electrical needs. It is cheap and non-expiring and sanctions unmolested. Not just that you can see it doing this for 200-500-10,000 year type thing into the future. It is market driven and financed and requires very minimal subsidies now compared to Hydel and Nuclear and even coal where clearing villages has become very controversial. There is a lot more technology coming.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is institutional change in thinking going on as the older folks die off. It is becoming unacceptable to stay coal burning long term. Some countries that don't use coal will gang up against countries that do. The private sector for sure has already made up it mind.

Perhaps. Actual figures indicate coal mining and oil extraction has gone up 7.1% in this last quarter. Maybe not for new coal plants, but existing ones. I would look at actual production of electricity and see that fossil fuels still power 2/3 of India and will continue to do so for the near term future. Yes, RES production will go up but so will consumption of fossil fuels.

its actually Solar. I wonder what will happen to the coal plants, if the price of electricity drops that much.

Hi Rishi,

Ashish is correct. Turns out based on the CELs that it is indeed a wind power project. But the Solar low is Mitsui with $19.70 / mwhr and Canadian Solar just over $20 / mwhr. Keep in mind as this is all in cost the numbers may not be directly comparable, transmission, land, etc. without seeing the project internals it may be hard to figure out which one is the lowest. But for sure approach or sub $20 / mwhr.

The projections are that $10 / mwhr projects are in our future. CEAH has reported USD $0.12 cents / watt for panels on new lines. When the present inventory clears and old lines are shut down that number will become increasingly available to developers. Baring tariff, tax snafu, YMMV, etc.

Mort Walker wrote:Yes, RES production will go up but so will consumption of fossil fuels.

Keep in mind we are only discussing electricity here. India is in a peculiar situation. We import ~ 250 million tons of coal a year. Yes much of our coal is now imported, though some for industrial feed. Every additional mwhr of RE we produce is another 1/2 ton of thermal coal we don't need to import and another ~ $75-$100 we can save.

Roof top solar when implemented on an industrial scale throughout India in places where population density is low (as in bigger cities it may lead to more heat flux being generated) shall lead to long term solution for Indian homes requiring less energy. My desh home is lower bill house after 2kw panels. Plus additional load that comes with modern gadgets is also taken care of. Excellent initiative by GoI and State government and everyone should have it not sure if subsidies are available in all states for it.

Mort Walker wrote:Yes, RES production will go up but so will consumption of fossil fuels.

Keep in mind we are only discussing electricity here. India is in a peculiar situation. We import ~ 250 million tons of coal a year. Yes much of our coal is now imported, though some for industrial feed. Every additional mwhr of RE we produce is another 1/2 ton of thermal coal we don't need to import and another ~ $75-$100 we can save.

That is correct. India imports about 120 billion dollars worth of energy fuel per year. Most of it being oil imports. Batteries and RES could stop this huge outflow of wealth. If the 120B are spent in India, it can truly transform the economy.

It should be possible with giga factories for battery and heavy investments in RES.

ashish raval wrote:Roof top solar when implemented on an industrial scale throughout India in places where population density is low (as in bigger cities it may lead to more heat flux being generated) shall lead to long term solution for Indian homes requiring less energy. My desh home is lower bill house after 2kw panels. Plus additional load that comes with modern gadgets is also taken care of. Excellent initiative by GoI and State government and everyone should have it not sure if subsidies are available in all states for it.

Roof top solar makes good sense. It would be ideal if entire neighborhoods could switch to DC power. The losses from roof top solar would be minimized.

Mort Walker wrote:Yes, RES production will go up but so will consumption of fossil fuels.

Keep in mind we are only discussing electricity here. India is in a peculiar situation. We import ~ 250 million tons of coal a year. Yes much of our coal is now imported, though some for industrial feed. Every additional mwhr of RE we produce is another 1/2 ton of thermal coal we don't need to import and another ~ $75-$100 we can save.

If there is domestic production of coal and gas, then it will be used over imports for coal power and natural gas power plants. The figures point out that these thermal plants are still producing the bulk of power and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

Mort Walker wrote:If there is domestic production of coal and gas, then it will be used over imports for coal power and natural gas power plants. The figures point out that these thermal plants are still producing the bulk of power and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

The figures tell me something very different. Solar is growing at 50% per annum in generation, wind is growing @ 15% per annum. If the GOI build out to 200,000 GW by 2022 gets close we will be at 20% of Generation from Solar, and wind at 15% of total. Just by 2022 RE will total 35% of generation.

At that growth rate by 2030 renewable will be 400% of India in old musharaff talk. It not going to be that fast but I suspect 2030-2035 we should expect renewable to cross the 50% mark. It will happen relatively quickly as coal in India is very poor quality and very expensive to ship and burn. Even more expensive to import. We did not have alternatives to coal before but we do now. Nuclear will always remain a question mark due to import issues. It will also happen relatively quickly because unlike China we did not build out a 1000,000 GW coal plants.

There is room for growth in solar, particularly rooftop solar, but by 2025 it will reach a plateau. This is primarily due to cost over a 24 hour period. I don’t buy the bogus claim of all these tarrif rates be it RES or conventional. We can only go on actual costs of production.

RES will be big no doubt, but the overall pie of energy sources for power production will be large too. Existing coal plants will likely be replaced by gas thermal by 2030.

In any case we have monthly and annual reports by the CEA to see what is actually happening besides the media hype of RES.

Calling the rates bogus maybe a bit harsh. The rates are built on market assumptions. In any case they are really the only credible signal we have from the market of the cost of production. No PWD bureaucrat assumption this. IMO about 10% of these cost assumption should go bankrupt, that is how price discovery works. There is no real actual cost of production calculation possible. Estimate it and see what you get.

The Media is actually very negative on RE. There is endless speculation on technical/financial/regulation causing the whole thing to just go away. I'm not sure which technology can play backup. It is entirely possible PV+Storage could do it or CSP like Gyan keeps reminding us will sneak in. Like you say reality can speak for itself.

There's plenty of buzz (fully 2 articles in yesterday's ET itself) reg electric 2-wheelers with a whole phalanx of startups and even established firms jumping into the fray with models already launched and so on.

Saw 100s of these small e-bikes (moped size) zipping everywhere in Chinese cities.

I hope that solar can help recharge 2-wheeler EVs - their battery packs (whether Lead or lithium) can directly (or indirectly) be recharged using PV generated electricity. Perhaps there are firms or joint ventures working on this aspect.

ISROs lithium ion battery energy density is not up to the mark. They are offering technology transfer to private companies. Their 18650 cell is rated at 1500mah. I can get a 2000mah 18650 from any laptop battery. Tesla 18650 average between 2000-3000+ mah

Hari Seldon wrote:There's plenty of buzz (fully 2 articles in yesterday's ET itself) reg electric 2-wheelers with a whole phalanx of startups and even established firms jumping into the fray with models already launched and so on.

Saw 100s of these small e-bikes (moped size) zipping everywhere in Chinese cities.

I hope that solar can help recharge 2-wheeler EVs - their battery packs (whether Lead or lithium) can directly (or indirectly) be recharged using PV generated electricity. Perhaps there are firms or joint ventures working on this aspect.

Correct. However the speed with which they charge and range is an issue. If someone comes up with hybrid engine it would solve issue of range anxiety and could really take off. Need solar charging stations in hundreds and if superchargers can reduce wait to ten minutes it will definitely take off not otherwise.

ISROs lithium ion battery energy density is not up to the mark. They are offering technology transfer to private companies. Their 18650 cell is rated at 1500mah. I can get a 2000mah 18650 from any laptop battery. Tesla 18650 average between 2000-3000+ mah

Well it is upto private sector to improve it isn't it. Sherpa can only carry weight upto last base camp. The final km has to be attempted by oneself if they want to climb Everest. Can't expect ISRO being a mother right!!.

"Our target is that we would auction at least 5 GW of offshore wind capacities next year. Survey is in progress at a location. We would start survey at two more locations and have placed order to buy equipment for that," he said.

About solar capacities' auction he said:"In solar energy, we would auction 20 GW projects, including those already auctioned this year. Next year (2018-19), we will auction 30 GW and another 30 GW in subsequent year. This is a conservative estimate excluding floating solar capacities which would also be on the block."

I feel there should be an 8 year plan where the solar companies get a chance to build factories with guarenteed offset for at least the next 5 years.

The plan proposes Central Financial Assistance in the form of a capital subsidy of 30 per cent for setting up or upgrading manufacturing capacity. The policy will target the creation of manufacturing capacity of 10 Gw (10,000 Mw) over five years, with focus on an integrated silica to modules package and intermediate standalone packages or combinations.

Where manufacturing capacity is set up without taking the capital subsidy, an interest subvention of three per cent is proposed, for loans taken through nationalised banks. This subvention will be available for the manufacture of polysilicon, wafers, and cells.

The central government would also offer exemption from customs duty on import of capital goods. With a manufacturing unit requiring high capital investment, the government would allow a solar power plant of twice the required capacity, to earn through power sale as well. However, any manufacturing plant availing of this would not be eligible for any other incentive, goes the draft.

"Our target is that we would auction at least 5 GW of offshore wind capacities next year. Survey is in progress at a location. We would start survey at two more locations and have placed order to buy equipment for that," he said.

Finally, wind potential is being harnessed...for a bureaucracy thats a quick turn around time

A stunning realization for me. The global "Holy Grail" of utility costs is $1 per installed watt (availability factor unspecified). Large wind aspired to reach that number with only 30% availability for that installed watt.

"We" are installing FULL SYSTEMS (incl. 250W rooftop panel + BOS structure & wiring as needed + a battery with about 4 hrs. performance, + 3 to 7 LED bulbs/tubes) at a cost of under $1.5/Watt. All indications are that the system operates at spec. for about 8, maybe 12, hrs /day most of the year. Now tested through one year, incl. monsoons. This means that we are handily beating the global Holy Grail for utility power, today, with these micro systems. In fairly remote Indian villages!! I have to revise my warning to never aspire to sell power back to the grid. Who needs the grid any more with this?

UlanBatori wrote:A stunning realization for me. The global "Holy Grail" of utility costs is $1 per installed watt (availability factor unspecified). Large wind aspired to reach that number with only 30% availability for that installed watt.

"We" are installing FULL SYSTEMS (incl. 250W rooftop panel + BOS structure & wiring as needed + a battery with about 4 hrs. performance, + 3 to 7 LED bulbs/tubes) at a cost of under $1.5/Watt. All indications are that the system operates at spec. for about 8, maybe 12, hrs /day most of the year. Now tested through one year, incl. monsoons. This means that we are handily beating the global Holy Grail for utility power, today, with these micro systems. In fairly remote Indian villages!! I have to revise my warning to never aspire to sell power back to the grid. Who needs the grid any more with this?

Some icing for you; The 1dollar per watt does not include transmission cost. Neither does it include the fuel like coal. Power companies could be used to sell and set up the systems with finance etc.

And I should add: The controller is a significant part of our cost, because we are doing it 250W at a time. If we go to 2kW at a time, the controller is a smaller fraction. All this suggests that bringing power to every village, is limited only by the laziness of the (whoever). The cost needed is quite small.

UlanBatori wrote:And I should add: The controller is a significant part of our cost, because we are doing it 250W at a time. If we go to 2kW at a time, the controller is a smaller fraction. All this suggests that bringing power to every village, is limited only by the laziness of the (whoever). The cost needed is quite small.

There is also a great cost opportunity in high volume mass production. Everything from stands, connectors, battery, splar panels, electronic to switches drops in price. We need the GOI to come up with a standard design and place orders of say 25 million 1Kwh systems, to be delivered over 5 years. Once the price is down, the uptake will be greater.

My estimation.1Kwh constant supply would require 2Kwh solar panels and 10Kwh battery. This should cost something like 65K for panels and Rs 100K for the battry pack. If you add another Rs 35K for fixtures and fitting, you get a total price of 200K. If you offer this with an EMI over 15 years and 8,5% interest rate. The monthly cost would be Rs 2000. Bear in mind that this price will not increase like price from electricity board. Within 7 years, the cost will feel halved due to inflation. Total units per month will in the 700 range. Giving us a unit price of Rs 2.9

Constant supply is not needed at the user level, because it cannot be put to good use without a large grid connecting many types of users. Storage through the night/bad weather is the criterion as I see it, along with reducing spikes such as airconditioning startup.