Indiana’s Weather For Thursday

July 26, 2012

Areas of damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning are likely today across southern Indiana. A cold front will move in, slicing through plenty of moisture and instability. The atmosphere above the surface will also get a kick from a wave of low pressure. This all points to precipitation. Heavy downpours of rain are possible. Indianapolis is almost ten inches behind for the year, so that’s more of a promise than a threat.

The best chances for rain and storms will be the afternoon and early evening. The storms should shut down completely after midnight, following the front out of the state.

A secondary cold front comes calling Friday, but there’s not as much for it to work with. Just slight storm chances, but even drier air rolls in behind the front. TGIF-night! Dew points dive, and set us up for a more comfortable Brickyard weekend.

The big heat ridge of high pressure that’s been sitting over the Mississippi River Valley will moves west this weekend back to the Rockies. That means more normal temperatures for us, and it also allows a more northwesterly flow in the Hoosier upper atmosphere. That adds some instability and storm chances by Sunday night into Monday.

We’ll be above 90 today, and that’s the 24th time this month. The last time a month had a month had this many 90+ days was August 1983. The record number is 25 days occurring in July 1901, and we’ll tie that tomorrow.

Today will be the 39th time this year we’ve been 90 or hotter. That’s the most to this date in a year, and we are chasing the record of 58 from 1983.

With yesterday’s high of 103 (!) there are now NINE days where the temperature reached 100 degrees in 2012. That trails only 1936 with 12 and 1934 with 10.

July 2012 will likely to go down in history as the warmest month (since records began) at Indianapolis. The average monthly temperature through the first 24 days is 84.6 degrees. July’s monthly average will fall slowly after Thursday but will likely remain above the current record of 82.8 degrees set in July 1936.

INDY ALMANAC:
The average high today is 85 and the average low is 66. Records are 98 and 51. Sunrise time is 6:39 and the sun sets at 9:04.

PAUL’S PREVIOUS PREDICTION:
The actual high yesterday was 103. The forecast was 103.

UV INDEX:
9 (Very high.)

POLLEN COUNT:
The count has increased this week and will remain at “medium” through Sunday.

DETAILED INDIANAPOLIS FORECAST:
Today: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and storms in the morning. Showers and storms are likely this afternoon.
Afternoon storms could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours of rain. High 95.