3 Education, development, and democracy At the micro-level of analysis, there is strong evidence that educated citizens are more likely to care about politics and to vote (Verba and Nie 1972) -- Logan and Bratton (2006): large positive correlations between education, political participation in 15 Sub- Saharan African countries -- However, with few exceptions, omitted variable bias issues are not adequately dealt with. More / less educated people could differ in many unobservable ways (e.g., personality, family background, ability) Milligan et al (2004) find strong positive effects of education on voting in the US but not the UK. Positive impacts on political knowledge in both countries WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 3

4 An education experiment in rural Kenya This paper exploits a randomized experiment carried out in in rural western Kenya (Busia district) -- Grade 6 girls in 34 primary schools were offered a merit scholarship if they scored well on academic exams. 35 schools were controls. (N=3200 girls) In the short-run, the program produced large test score gains, of 0.25 s.d. -- Student and teacher attendance improved What is the impact of this increase in human capital on political attitudes and knowledge 4-5 years later? WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 4

6 The Girls Scholarship Program (GSP) in Kenya The top 15% (district-wide) of grade 6 girls in program schools won: 500 KSh (US$6.40) for school fees, for two years 1000 KSh (US$12.80) cash, for two years Public recognition, certificate at an award ceremony The total cash component was US$38, in a setting where annual per capita income is close to US$ Two cohorts competed (2001, 2002) Recent school incentive program evaluations in rich countries have produced mixed results (Angrist and Lavy 2002, Leuven et al 2003) WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 6

7 Map of Africa Kenya WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 7

8 Busia WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 8

9 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 9

10 Sample attrition in the initial study Initially in two neighboring districts, Busia and Teso -- Teso district has long been a difficult setting for NGO work, due to the opposition of some local leaders -- High sample attrition rates in Teso district complicate estimation of effects there (wide treatment bounds) -- Sample follow-up in 2001 in Busia was high at 79% (program schools) versus 78% (control), while in Teso it was low at 53% (program schools) versus 65% (control) The follow-up survey was restricted to Busia -- Not a problem for the current study since our focus is the impact of education, not of merit awards per se WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 10

13 Summary of earlier findings (Kremer et al 2008) The randomization worked at producing comparable program and control groups (Table 1) Large test score gains for both cohorts (2001, 2002) of 0.25 standard deviations (Table 2, Figure 1) -- We cannot reject equally large gains for girls throughout the baseline (2000) test score distribution, even at the bottom -- Gains in teacher attendance (reducing absenteeism by one third), and also student attendance Test score gains persisted through 2003 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 13

14 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 14

15 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 15

16 The Tracking Survey A panel dataset of rural Kenyan young adults ( ) -- Individuals were tracked as they moved throughout Kenya and even into Uganda -- Direct contact with 84.3% of target respondents: 81.9% actually surveyed; the rest were dead or refused -- Balance across program (81.7%) and control (82.1%) group individuals -- Two step procedure: regular tracking, and intensive tracking (follow-up a representative sub-sample) WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 16

18 Tracking Survey questions Some sample questions: Political knowledge Do you know who Kenya s current Minister of Health is? Democratic attitudes and participation We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open and honest elections. (1=Strongly agree 5=Strongly disagree) Do you intend to vote in the next presidential election, to be held in 2007? Satisfaction / Skepticism Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Kenya? (1=Very satisfied 4=Not at all) WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 18

19 Tracking Survey questions Women s rights A. Women have always been subject to traditional laws and customs, and should remain so. B. In our country, women should have equal rights and receive the same treatment as men do. 1=Agree Very Strongly With A 4=Agree Very Strongly With B Ethnic identity Is your ethnic or tribal origin somewhat important, very important or not very important to your life? Social Capital In general, can you trust people in other tribes? Are you a member of a women s group? WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 19

20 Education and SES impacts Test score gains are persistent to (Table 3) -- The estimated effect across all tests is 0.17 s.d. -- Roughly equivalent to 0.17 more years of schooling Program school individuals are significantly more likely to be enrolled in school (18% increase), and to have completed some secondary school (23% increase) -- No detectable impacts on marriage, migration, happiness, or anthropometrics WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 20

21 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 21

22 Impacts on political variables More informed: better political knowledge (Table 4) More skeptical: Less satisfaction with Kenya s democracy, less respect for authority, more likely to condone violence, and less optimistic about the quality of government No impact on support for democratic institutions -- Contrast large positive effects in OLS cross-section -- No effect on stated 2007 voting intentions -- No effects on support for women s rights, ethnic identification, trust, community groups (Table 5) WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 22

23 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 23

24 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 24

25 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 25

26 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 26

27 WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 27

28 Discussion / Conclusion Young Kenyan women with more education are more informed and more skeptical about politics -- Will this stabilize or undermine democracy? Our methodological contribution is two-fold: (1) Exogenous education addresses omitted variables (2) Using long-run panel data with high tracking rates Limitations: -- Young adult women in one Kenyan district -- Political behavior (e.g., voting) would be useful Any implications for the recent Kenyan political crisis? WGAPE 12/2008 Education and Politics 28

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