Apple’s record-breaking sales of nine million iPhones over the weekend were split almost evenly between the iPhone 5s and 5c, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities.

Data published by Localytics suggested that the iPhone 5s was 3.4 times more popular than the iPhone 5c after three days of availability. However, Kuo notes that Localytics’ figures were based on iPhone activations, while his are based on actual production. According to the often-accurate analyst, Apple sold between 3.5 million and 4.5 million of the iPhone 5s, which means the rest of the high sales number was taken by the cheaper and more colorful iPhone 5c.

Kuo also notes that the approximately 50/50 split between the two iPhones was mainly because of supply constraints of the iPhone 5s at launch. “From Apple’s viewpoint, production, sell-in, sell-through and activation are different things,” he explained. “Since iPhone 5s is in shortage now, numbers of production, sell-in, sell-through and activation should be very close.”

The iPhone 5s’ supply shortage, particularly of the gold model, is likely to help the iPhone 5c further increase its lead over the next few days. But Kuo believes that the flagship iPhone 5s will still be the “main contributor” to total iPhone shipments in the upcoming holiday quarter, and if history is any guide, that’s a prediction that will likely hold true when Apple next announces its sales figures.