A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left.
Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Lessons of the summer

Daniel Hannan's attack on the NHS gave us a great open goal and we proceeded to pour heavy fire at the Tories on this issue.

Net result: we (Labour activists) all felt great and remembered why and how much we hate the Tories but the electorate was singularly unimpressed, the polls didn't budge an inch and we remain 16% adrift.

Trouble is, this is the politics of our comfort zone and most of the people whose voting patterns are determined by love of/expected immediate need for the NHS, or well-funded schools, or inner-city regeneration, or greater equality, are already in the hard-core 24%-28% of voters who are sticking with us in every opinion poll.

After all, we had great policies in these areas in every one of the four elections when we got soundly thrashed by the Tories. Too many voters don't expect to be sick (admittedly a stupid position for them to take, writing as I am from my hospital bed), haven't got kids of school age, don't live in the inner city and don't feel underprivileged for us to win on these policy areas alone. Others do care about these issues but weigh them up, and trump them with concerns that the economy ain't in great shape, they feel over-taxed, they are worried about crime and immigration, or our armed forces are over-stretched in Afghanistan.

We can't win next year by just focusing on the easy issues that make Labour activists feel good.

Yes we should bang the drum about issues like the NHS but we won three times and we might stand some chance of winning again if, as in the last three elections, we come out of our own corner and take ownership of the range of issues that otherwise default to their historic pre-1997 status as Tory strengths. So we need to:

explain how ID cards, which the Tories oppose, are central to combating illegal immigration

cut taxes for the lowest paid

get people from welfare into work to help cut the deficit

reinvigorate the respect agenda on crime and anti-social behaviour, which has not been high-profile enough since 2007

put more money into buying the defence kit the troops in Afghanistan need - which has the useful side effect of creating high quality industrial jobs

above all explain how our economic decisions are driving the ongoing recovery from recession - decisions the Tories opposed

These should all be OUR issues. We have to address them and loudly if we are in anything other than "circle the wagons and pray for a miracle" mode.

Just for the record, the August MORI issues poll has the following as the issues rated most important by the public:

Economy 54%

Crime/ASB 32%

Unemployment 30%

Immigration 25%

NHS 16%

Education 12%

And further down the table for all the anti-Trident self-described "populists", nuclear disarmament scores under 0.5%.

75 Comments:

An ominous pattern is slowly emerging towards an inevitable power play on pushing another amnesty through Congress. We need to take the many consequences into consideration:1 We already had an enforceable 1986 law to stop the illegal immigrant invasion of our country, but it has been intentionally ignored? So--WHY--are they adamant in passing another immigration law?2. Most enforcement legislation has been crushed or weakened by many of the politicians we voted into office.3. That many of our own government members have pandered to the special interest lobbyists and not voters.4 For decades American taxpayers have been supporting, business welfare, who have never contributed to foreign national workers. That emergency hospitals, must attend any foreign person who enters its doors, illegal or legal? ICE should be on standby and demand who that individual is working for and subsequently make the employer pay instead of the taxpayers.5. That Democrats are downplaying that the 20 plus illegal immigrant families living here, will not have access to the health care reform package? But are not saying that if a new path to citizenship is enacted, they can automatically get health care?6. Should a new immigration reform package is passed, what's stopping millions more poor, uneducated people storming the border.7. Why did Sen. Harry Reid, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other members of the party try to dismantle E-Verify and under fund the border fence, so it was only a single layer instead of two tiers?8 That E-Verification is working and working well, so no wonder the US Chamber of Commerce, ACLU, Cato Institute and a large majority of anti-sovereignty groups have been involved in lawsuits, and questionable appeasement by politicians to kill the any enforcement laws.

9. Why are we still inviting around a million new immigrants a year, when their are about 15 million jobless Americans? My health care experience was mainly in England, Germany and 15 months in Australia and prior to the mass European immigration invasion was positively first class. FIRST CLASS AND EXEMPLARY! THERE WAS NO SUCH THING AS RATIONING?

Of all the states that--SHOULD--be using E-Verify, is the illegal immigrant sanctuary state of California. Illegal immigration attributed to the near bankruptcy of California and is a prime example of intentionally ignoring immigration laws. The U.S. Census Bureau projections issued in the year 2000, that the United States is precisely on track to have a population of 1.182--BILLION--in the year 2100. So much for future American population is OVERPOPULATION.

GET RAW ANSWERS AT NUMBERSUSA Contact those in WASHINGTON! NO MORE AMNESTIES. USE ATTRITION TO DEPORT ILLEGAL WORKERS THROUGH E-VERIFY, 287 G, NO MATCH SOCIAL SECURITY LETTERS AND LIGHTENING ICE RAIDS. CONTACT YOUR POLITICIAN 202-224-3121 AND DEMAND NO WEAKENING OF CURRENT 1986 (IRCA) OTHER SITES FOR INFORMATION IS HERITAGE FOUNDATION, JUDICIAL WATCH.

PS: Least we forget that Ted Kennedy--NEVER TOLD THE TRUTH--when he promised their would be no more AMNESTIES, after the 1986 immigration reform act?

Nice to note that I am not the only Labour blogger to support ID cards. Good post. I might alter only one policy point, and that is in respect of Afghanistan. I think a clear roadmap a per pro our exit from the country should be mapped out.

Luke, you seem a decent, intelligent sort of chap. You genuinely seem to want to improve the lot of ordinary people.

I have a question for you.

Why do you want such a selfish, immoral and malignant group of people to continue to contaminate our country, after all the devastation they have caused, and after it is now clear they have no interest whatever in the welfare of the poor?

"explain how ID cards, which the Tories oppose, are central to combating illegal immigration"

But they're not! But -- if you think they are -- explain it to me. I'm listening.

"cut taxes for the lowest paid"

Yes, okay.

"get people from welfare into work to help cut the deficit"

How many years have you already had to do this, with no visible effect at all?

"reinvigorate the respect agenda on crime and anti-social behaviour, which has not been high-profile enough since 2007"

Go ahead. Keep believing the electorate are stupid people who can't see that the "respect agenda" is an excuse for not doing anything concrete to cut crime and anti-social behaviour -- which, after all, affect above all the poor and disadvantaged and have no impact whatsoever on Labour ministers (which is exactly why they don't care).

"put more money into buying the defence kit the troops in Afghanistan need - which has the useful side effect of creating high quality industrial jobs"

See comment above about welfare to work. Saving the lives of British servicemen is Priority Zero with Labour ministers -- their children won't be going into the Army.

"above all explain how our economic decisions are driving the ongoing recovery from recession - decisions the Tories opposed"

Now I know you're having a laugh. Piling up debt. Pouring money into schemes that produce nothing. Turning Britain into another Egypt.

It's a nice dream you have there, Luke, but here on Planet Earth we need something different.

@DonpaskiIdentity Cards as cards are completely unimportant. But what they represent is that you are a member of Club Britain.

If every member has a photograph and a finger print identifier then illegal immigration will be impossible. Forging the cards will do no good because you won't produce the card you will produce a finger print that will be checked against the membership list for your GP, for a hospital admission, for a school place, for a council house or for any benefits.No membership, no benefits.

Anyone who can live in Britain anyway is a useful potential new member. Scroungers will automatically deport themselves to countries with less rigorous checks.

Illegal immigration is a rational economic decision by rational people. Make it less of a no-brainer and fewer people will come

Actually those with real experience of the NHS are the ones who are most disgusted with the failure to reform the NHS whilst blowing billions that we now know we didn't have on salaries and managers.

On education its even more stark. My kids are coming up to secondary education level and I am amazed at how many left wing, guardian reading "I'll always send my kids to state schools" parents are now suddenly looking at private schools and buying in tutors to get their kids up to scratch.

My former neighbour is a left wing teacher who says she'd think of moving her kids (who past through the local comprehensive 15 years ago) somewhere else now due to how much things have got worse over the last 10 years.

I know people who work on the standards for science in education who say the latest exams are just useless.

Labour's problem is you narrative was a fantasy backed by ruthless manipulation of the media, but the narrative the electorate are now following is reality. You just don't care enough about people to face up to facts and come out of your dream world.

If you think ID Cards are to combat illegal immigration, then you are either a very intelligent Labour professional liar, or an honest, trusting, high-minded Labour supporter betrayed by this scum government who don't give a damn for you but are happy you spread their lies.

ID cards won't have any impact on illegal immigration whatsoever unless they are compulsory for every man, woman and child in the entire country. Can you even begin to imagine how difficult, expensive and ultimately suicidal it would be to implement such a scheme? Not to mention the tremendous threat to civil liberties that a compulsory ID card scheme would pose.

Alan Johnson himself has said that ID cards will "never" be compulsory for Britons in any case, so this vague hope you have of it cutting illegal immigration is just pie in the sky.

To echo the sentiments of others who have commented on your blog: you seem like an intelligent, well-meaning chap. Can you not see that this Labour administration is nothing more than a cynical bunch of manipulators claiming to be working in the name of the poor and deprived but in reality have done *nothing* to help those they say they represent?

I think it warrants repeating, Luke: these rogues have been in power for 12 years, and what have they achieved? They had the people's trust when they were elected back in 1997, but they have ridden roughshod over us all, particularly the very people they said they would help. To cap it all, they have saddled Britain with the biggest post-war debt burden it has ever had, and still they prattle on about spending yet more money which we don't have on "services" which we don't need.

Oh come on! Reminds you of why you hate the Tories, does it? It reminds the rest of us how the Labour spin machine and its hangers on (i.e. you) distort everything to feed its own hatred for people who dare to disagree with them.The Enoch Powell immigration thing is particularly egregious as Hannan is on record saying he disagrees with Powell about immigration. Never mind though, eh, just keep it coming and wonder why you lost.Bless.

The last 12 years have seen unprecedented economic growth, a much happier, joined up, inclusive, richer in every sense country.

It wasn't Labour who gave us homes for votes, jobs for the boys, cash for questions, arms to Iraq etc.

It wasn't the Labour Government who banned elected MPs voices from being heard on the TV, who closed down councils who disgreed with them politically, whose tabloid lapdogs attacked the church or the BBC or anyone who opposed them- even wet tories had to be castigated, hence the cheering when Patten lost in 92.

It's not Labour who blocked fair voting, or filibustered fair treatment for disabled people. It wasn't Labour who signed Maastricht.

Luke is an intelligent guy- that's why he knows after 3 terms of the best British Government since Henry Pelham, Labour are still the best option for the British people.

All you people who are crawling out from under the rocks you've had to hide under for a decade should understand that Tory filth will always be filth and you can try and redress it, resell it, repackage it, revise history or fabricate the present but the price we always have to pay for Tory ideology is a fractured, oppressive, anti- libertarian society

Your naivete is thinking the next election will be won on policy issues is touching, but laughable. Labour didn't even win in 1997 because of its policies - Labour won because the Tories had become so stale, sleazy and bereft of talent that no-one other than the most one-eyed "always voted Tory" voter could bring themselves to do so.

Back to the present day - add "economic incompetence" "entrenching poverty" "illegal wars" "£billions wasted on bureaucratic bum-scratching" to "sleazy" "stale" and "bereft of talent" and you'll see why Labour will be in opposition for decades.

Get used to it, the party's over. Argue the toss with fellow party members about minor policy nuances all you like. The electorate is suffering and fully intends to teach this fag-end government a much-needed lesson.

"The last 12 years have seen unprecedented economic growth, a much happier, joined up, inclusive, richer in every sense country."

Economic growth? Good grief, I think it's you that's been hiding under a rock my friend, perhaps in denial.

The only unprecedented growth in the last 12 years has been in personal, corporate and government debt, in the number of people who will never escape poverty, in the number of teenagers stabbed in the street, in the number of servicemen killed in pointless wars, in the number of people claiming benefits.

"Happier, joined-up, inclusive and richer in every sense"

Empty management-speak, completely subjective and not empirically demonstrable in any way. But hey....doesn't matter about having to prove it as long as it sounds good, right?

There should be put in place skill training for those already in work, and should have the facility to be released 1 day a week from work with no loss of pay! that way we would have workers who may want to change their careers or see an end coming to their current to have the ability to be able to do this. at the moment workers can't afford the training on offer or get the time off work!

You've not heard of the EU then I take it? As unless your ID scheme and it's associated finger print database covers all 27 countries plus soon to be Turkey it isn't going to work is it? Why? because under EU rules all citizens have free movement and the right to reside/work in any member country.

If it is going to cover them all how do you ensure the quality and anti forgery systems are in place .

And what is the point of catching illegal immigrants anyway, we catch some now, nothing happens, it's not as if we deport them is it.

"above all explain how our economic decisions are driving the ongoing recovery from recession - decisions the Tories opposed"

Funny, now we have to pay for those decisions and we'll see how the economy recovers when taxes start rising.

You talk about economic recovery as if the soaring stocks are a good indicator. What about the 6 million plus unemployed or the falling standard of living....All that is happening Luke is the rich are taking advantage of cheaper labour, cheaper property and generally the abundance of bargains out there.

Some parts of the UK are now like ghost towns. No jobs, rising poverty, crime, ASB...its shocking. There is no recovery here and no signs of it at all.

During the early part of this year it was possible to buy shares at rock bottom prices such as RBS for 10p, now above 50p and Lloyds at 30p now above £1, but hardly any bugger in the working class had any money to invest in shares, so what bloody difference does soaring share prices make to the real economy most of us face?

Labour betrayed us, as in 1997 it said no more boom and bust and yet let the housing market inflate Outside of the Galaxy! All the crap about housing a pocket full of key workers and a small percentage of affordable housing in new developments was wiped out by the housing costs in the market. The silly Bugger PM was more interested in making money on his Islington Home he sold at a massive profit, than kicking his Chancellor up the Arse to Regulate & control the housing market. after what happened in the late 80's as in boom and crash, it's a sure sign that New Labour have collaborated with the evil global elite filth and this recession has been planned all along!

"most of the people whose voting patterns are determined by love of/expected immediate need for the NHS, or well-funded schools, or inner-city regeneration, or greater equality, are already in the hard-core 24%-28% of voters who are sticking with us in every opinion poll."

No, many of us do care about those issues, but think that Labour is making them worse, not better.

I'm from the north east england, and if you put a monkey up for election, along as it had a labour party tag it would get in. Aked why do they vote Labour, "Labour party is for working man" and "Grandfather father voted labour" are the answers. No because I belive Labour as good, it's simple dogma. Well things are changing, the expenses helped "mock tudor beams" porn and my sisters bedroom.... Did you notice how fast Tony Blair dumped Sedgefield after they were no use to him, were as John Major waited till the next election

"Please explain to me why Labour have NO seats in the West Country except in Bristol.

Are we all stupid?"

Yes.

Don't worry though you'll be in opposition soon and all the lies you've told since 1997 are going to haunt you for decades and rightly so. Shame on you for supporting this bloodthirsty warmongering bunch of deceitful creeps.

Seriously, though, how can you say something like that and keep a straight face? The only thing that's unprecedented is the recession we have been plunged into. Yes, it's global, but Britain is amongst the worst affected countries in the first world, due almost entirely to Brown's appalling grasp of economics. No more boom and bust? Selling off our gold reserves when gold was at its lowest price for decades? Dealing with obscene amounts of debt by spending even more money we don't have?

What I object to is the conceit that defence of the NHS/education is uniquely a Labour issue.

I have three kids in state education in London and there is no way on earth they can continue when they reach secondary level. I will follow the likes of Tony Blair, Diane Abbott, Peter Kilfoyle, Jeremy Corbyn, Harriet Harperson and others and try the grammar schools located just outside my borough. What's so disappointing for us supporters of the state sector is that, despite all the money spent, Labour has failed here. Oh yes, higher GCSE and A level results (really higher standards?) and nicer school buildings than before but fundamentally 'bog standard' education, as Alastair Campbell pointed out.

As for the NHS, I believe that the Conservatives are currently the only party committed to increasing funding. Although the idea that 'efficiency savings' can't be found in an institution that spends £110bn in the middle of a recession is somewhat fanciful.

Labour will lose because no one believes them on these two issues that they supposedly 'own' (and many others). They don't own them, they had the benefit of the doubt for 12 years and on education in particular have fallen well short.

Iasn't it funny how Tories can try to take over a Labour Blog and then tell Labour supporters on it to go away.

The tory attitude is "It's not even my cake but I'm going to eat it all anyway" fingers in the till, "nothings fair unless I've got a built-in advantage" "me me me, give it to me" politics of brass necked self- centeredness and stupidity that will ultimately count against them when people realise the selfish thieving parasites haven't changed a bit.

The priorites are abolish inheritance tax and reintroduce fox hunting. Because inhertiting their wealth without having to work for it and killing things for pleasure is all their lives revolve around.

Cameron can raise a million just selling a painting. All the jobs will go his school chums. He and his creepy cohorts are not ready for prime time and when they look over the precipice next spring the public will draw back.

Isn't it also funny how Labour supporters automatically assume that anyone who disagrees with them is a rich, upper class Tory.

FYI, I'm neither a Tory nor rich. I just don't like the Labour Party, its government or the havoc it has caused since 1997.

Incidentally, you might want to tone down the anti-Tory bile, not because it's offensive but because it makes you sound incredibly hateful and bitter. Not good ways to win over folk like me who aren't allied to any political party.

The reason Labour has no seats in the South West is presumably our backward voting system.

Labours biggest mistake has been not to kill off the Tory Party.

Reforming MPs expenses making them transparent would have stopped all the Tory duck island fraud years ago. As it is, as soon as they're back in power it will be a brown envelope free for all again because the corruption running through the Tories is unequalled.

Labour should also have introduced PR. That would have protected ordinary people from a future unfettered Tory Government & have given Labour seats in the South West.They introduced it in Scotland to their own severe detriment but the salvation of the Tories, sacrificing themselves for the sake of the Union.

The pretence you could be won over if only your opponents didn't argue so forcefully is just part of your transparent insincerity.

I have no idea obviously if you a Tory. You could be in UKIP or the BNP or the EDs. You could float round all kinds of dustbins.

I'm not really Labour. I just lived through 18 years of the most miserable Government in history from 1979 to 97 and the last 12 years has been like paradise to me in contrast. Sorry if you don't feel the same.

As for singling me out as hateful and bitter on this blog, it's self evident how biased and distorted your view is.

Make no mistake. I do not want a Tory victory. Working for a Local Authourity which turned blue a couple of years ago I know what havoc unreconstructed grass roots, Thatcher loving, slaves to free-market ideology can bestow on public bodies.

It is though, I'm resigned to think, a question of momentum. The whole expenses issue showed that despite the Tories being some of the worst offenders (duck house and moat anyone) it was Labour, the party of government, who took the biggest hit in the polls. This is because people want change. In a two party system the Tories are the only way of acheiving change and Cameron has managed to harness this to his advantage. Joe Public knows the Tories are wolves who have donned sheeps clothing but the fact is Joe Public wants things done differently.

Just look at the Obama campaign. In politics never under-estimate the sheer soul-stirring power of the word 'change'.

The Brown Bounce was brought about by an optimism for change, but then it became clear that it was business as usual albeit with a less charismatic leader.

I never said that I could be won over if folk like yourself were less vitriolic, I merely pointed out that it isn't a very attractive quality for potential voters.

I also note with interest your delightful attempt to associate me with UKIP or the BNP through the art of suggestion, tricks worthy of that wonderful fellow Mr. McBride. I will only repeat what I said earlier, that I am not allied with any political party. Hard though it may be for you to understand, I just don't like Labour and have yet to decide whether I like anyone else either. All I actively do want is for them to get kicked out.

I just don't think either Labour or the Conservatives have got the message on the NHS. Its management is dreadful and the culture is all wrong - and the average voter who experiences the NHS knows this and knows that a complete change is desperately needed.

Try standing in A&E desperately attempting to get a doctor or nurse - anyone - to give some attention to a stroke victim. Or battling with a nurse to get a bed in a ward although the "bed allocation sister" had already 'found' a bed and sent the patient up. Or overhearing a nurse reading a patient's notes and saying to a collaegue 'My God, nobody's even looked at him for 48 hours'. I've had all the experiences recently and I dread ever having to go into hospital myself.

Forget this 'free at the point of delivery' mantra which makes staff feel like they are doing patients a favour. Forget the GP fundholders and hospital trusts who spend a fortune passing funny money (OUR money) around amongst themselves. Most of us have paid vast amounts over the years in tax to support the NHS and want to be treated like a valued customer. This is the culture that needs to be instilled. Perhaps paying up front, with insurance reimbursement (state subsidised in cases of need) is the only way to get the culture change needed.

I despair of Labour ever being able to do this, but I'm not too confident that the Tories can find the will to bite on this particular bullet either.

I resent the fact that if a person shares a view against the government then all the Labour lackies and brown nosers scream in indignation and shut the conversation down.

When Dan Hannan stated he admired Enoch Powell (which he has a right to do in a free country) - just like Tony Bliar did - why was that disgusting Peter Mandelson back in the media screaming about the Tories?

I have voted Labour my whole life as has my father and my grand father who was a union rep and Labour activist but that was REAL LABOUR - not this criminal bunch.

Stop defending a government that implements policies that are against real Labour principal and keeps shafting the poor.

Anyone who supports the shutting down of free speech, tuition fees, the Gurkhas, 10p tax rate, serving a full third term, forcing us into Europe against our will, flooding the country with people that hate us, tells lies to go to war, no more boom and bust and employs 'Special Advisors' to smear an opposition leader who's disabled son has just died does not deserve ANYONES vote in my opinion.

So called Labour Activists should be up in arms demanding the government changes policies to represent the people who elected it. Don't you care about the party at all?

Aneurin Bevan must be turning in his grave when he sees the types of ministers that govern us.

As bad as the unelected worse chancellor in history, Gordon Brown is, can anyone really imagine employing Bob Ainsworth as Defence Secretary when there's a war on? Would anyone here even pay that man in washers?

Soldiers are dying here guys.

Luke and all you other New Labour supporting Lick Spittles should be ashamed of yourselves.

I resent the fact that if a person shares a view against the government then all the Labour lackies and brown nosers scream in indignation and shut the conversation down.

When Dan Hannan stated he admired Enoch Powell (which he has a right to do in a free country) - just like Tony Bliar did - why was that disgusting Peter Mandelson back in the media screaming about the Tories?

I have voted Labour my whole life as has my father and my grand father who was a union rep and Labour activist but that was REAL LABOUR - not this criminal bunch.

Stop defending a government that implements policies that are against real Labour principal and keeps shafting the poor.

Anyone who supports the shutting down of free speech, tuition fees, the Gurkhas, 10p tax rate, serving a full third term, forcing us into Europe against our will, flooding the country with people that hate us, tells lies to go to war, no more boom and bust and employs 'Special Advisors' to smear an opposition leader who's disabled son has just died does not deserve ANYONES vote in my opinion.

So called Labour Activists should be up in arms demanding the government changes policies to represent the people who elected it. Don't you care about the party at all?

Aneurin Bevan must be turning in his grave when he sees the types of ministers that govern us.

As bad as the unelected worse chancellor in history, Gordon Brown is, can anyone really imagine employing Bob Ainsworth as Defence Secretary when there's a war on? Would anyone here even pay that man in washers?

Soldiers are dying here guys.

Luke and all you other New Labour supporting Lick Spittles should be ashamed of yourselves.

"Anyone who supports the shutting down of free speech, tuition fees, the Gurkhas, 10p tax rate, serving a full third term, forcing us into Europe against our will, flooding the country with people that hate us, tells lies to go to war, no more boom and bust and employs 'Special Advisors' to smear an opposition leader who's disabled son has just died does not deserve ANYONES vote in my opinion."

Fortunately your opinion is self- evidently worthless.

LOL. There's more smears and lies in that paragraph than New Labour have put out in their history.

So this "voting Labour my whole life" lark of yours presumably applies to 97, 01 and 05 as well then- what with it being your whole life and everything?

You didn't know about the war or New Labour in 2005 then? You didn't know we were in the EU?

However what's really given you away as yet another dishonest right winger pretending to be disillusioned Labour is the "flooding our country with people that hate us".You just couldn't help yourself could you? A little bit of your anti immigrant goo comes out when you get excited doesn't it?

Not wishing to lend credence to the BNP, but it is a psephological fact that a large number of its recent converts are disillusioned ex-Labour voters. Racism and anti-immigrant sentiment are rather prevalent amongst the urban white working class, I'm afraid.

In fairness I'm not sure it's a very valid "psephological fact" to suggest a "large number" of ex-labour voters have switched to the BNP.

I'm not saying none have but actually it's more people who have opposed Labour since the 70s but not had a natural electoral home.

Also it's not the Labour vote that's all but disappeared in these BNP places, Burnley, Stoke etc - it's the other parties vote that's vanished as they've switched to BNP to defeat Labour.

It doesn't really explain either Epping Forest or Broxbourne or the prevalence of fascists in a number of other true blue places.

You say racism is prevalent amongst the white urban working class. Where I live that is just not true because we're all forced to muck along together. Most of the kids on my estate are half and half these days. hardly going to be racist against themselves are they?

It's the Carol Thatcher posh people tendency that's still holding up the old casual racism.

If you actually have to live cheek by jowl together racism disappears pretty quick as humanity shows itself.

All valid points, though I would like to clarify that I originally said "a large number of its [BNP] recent converts are ex-Labour", not that a large number of ex-Labour voters are now BNP voters. A subtle, but nevertheless important, distinction. I know plenty of disillusioned ex-Labour voters who just don't vote at all, now.

Furthermore, the prevalence of racism and/or anti-immigrant sentiment I referred to exists more commonly amongst white communities that live alongside Muslim ones. In such cases, there is often next to no integration between the two (especially not of the conjugal kind) and this can breed a considerable degree of resentment; fertile conditions, alas, for crackpot outfits like the BNP.

This assumes that the electorate make their decision based on rationality. On the whole, I think it is much more about how they feel and that isn't necessarily down to 'policy'

And some of the issues you mention don't cut the mustard. For a start, many Labour voters don't want ID cards and are not convinced by grand claims about illegal immigration. Check Spain and Germany. I'm not against I cards at all but I wouldn't overestimate their use.

Labour doesn't want to cut taxes for the lowest paid. Brown got rid of the 10p tax rate. Frank Field has been talking about this for years but Brown prefers a flat tax rate

Again, the crime/ASB issue is more about perception than anything else, and the stats can say one thing but perceptions quite something else. For example, recent stats about perception of crime and safety have been dreadful because they reflect people's feelings about the recession and life in general

More and more people are rightly recognising that the ASfghan war is unwinnable and favour not more money being poured into a pointless war but the withdrawal of UK troops. They won't get killed that way either. of course, Atlanticists have always relied on 'warbucks' to create jobs

As for recession, the problem is that whilst I would agree that the government have largely done what was needed, it was their reluctance to deal with the excesses of the city which led to the problems in the first place. brown lost his reputation for competence as a result and I don't think the public are ready to give it back.

As for Trident, you entirely miss the point - something will have to give with regard to public spending and Trident is an obvious target. The case against it has been presented in that way, not with any connection to 'nuclear disarmament'.

There's nothing which you have advocated which makes me want to vote Labour next year and I did so in each of the past 3 elections. Or can you afford to lose my vote and the many others who simply don't think that the New Labour formula is what we want.?

Luke, I've come to your blog via "Order Order". I'm very glad to see that Labour activists like you still haven't got a clue how to win my vote, or most [80%] of the rest of the population.The 3 things which concern the 80% who won't vote for you ever are:Stop immigrationLeave Europe immediatelyRepeal the Human Rights ActYour problem Luke is that like Gordo "you just don't get it". You sleazy theiving bastards will be out at the next election entirely because of your greed at ripping us off through expenses AND ignoring the important issues.John

Here we go again - resort to insults on a personal level to comments you disagree with.

Typical New Labour.

I am far from racist btw having an Indian son in law and employing three Asians full time.

I also resent your suggestion that I'm racist over "people that hate us" - I remember human beings being blown up on the London Underground who'd done nothing wrong.

Why don't you remember that?

I have voted Labour, including "Full Third Term" Bliar for the last five elections and was a member of the T&GW when Bill Morris was in charge.

I DEEPLY resent the way these horrible ministers have hijacked a once proud party and dragged it through the mud.

I quit the party after 1997 but continued to vote for them seeing no alternative.

I was disgusted at the Mandelson mortgage thing or was it those passport fiddles he was involved in - there's been so much.

This "Tory Toffs" stuff and all the other smearing from these dishonest hypocrites sickens anyone who's true Labour supporter and does a real world job for a living rather than some "Media Outreach Coordinator" or the suchlike.

And let's see if you still have these views next year after Labour get trounced and rightly so. I'm voting Lib Dem but I'm sure someone with your control freak views could start a Stalinista Party and join the Labour Party in oblivion.

It is not a 'psephological fact'. Confusing 'swing' with 'transfer' is psephological bollocks. (Of the sort that many contributors to this blog, including its author partake from time to time). A collapse in the Labour vote and an increase in the BNP one is not the same as Labour voters voting BNP. Especially when we're basing this on elections with very low turnouts. Some ex-Labour voters undoubtedly have voted BNP: a tiny proportion. I can't 'prove' it, but I suspect the number will be similar to that of ex-Tory voters; both will be beaten by ex-non-voters by a big margin. In my neck of the woods most BNP voters used to vote Tory. I'm sure it's different in some other areas. Mostly its people who didn't used to vote at all.

Remember less people voted BNP in the European elections just gone than did in the previous ones in both Yorkshire and the North-West. Again, don't confuse percentage with popular vote (you risk more psephological bollocks).

"Here we go again - resort to insults on a personal level to comments you disagree with.

Typical New Labour.

I am far from racist btw having an Indian son in law and employing three Asians full time."

I guess part of why they say your opinion is worthless could be that you show no self awareness of what you've written- whereas everybody else can see that it was you who started the personal insults with the talk of lickspittles who should be ashamed of themselves.

You're also making up insults. Nobody called you racist. By the way I my friend lost her son in those bombs. Those bombers were Yorkshiremen. Apart from the one from High Wycombe. Stupid deluded men taking themselves far too seriously. All British born & bred.

I don't believe you've ever voted Labour either for the record. I know Labour voters. I've canvassed enough. You use the vocabulary of extreme antis. You're probably not aware of how your discourse gives you away. But then you don't seem to notice what you're writing yourself.

I can tell how someone votes from their hairstyle letalone from the words they use.

In defence of John, immigration and Europe are still big in terms of what the voter thinks are important.

67% now do not want to be part of the New Single Europe....FACT

60% of people want stricter controls on immigration. FACT

82% want a referendum on Europe and based on the above polls we know what the outcome would be. This is why this government doesn't want one. FACT

Stopping immigration isn't racist or part of a fascist agenda...it is a common sense policy. It stops over population and increases the standard of living for those people that reside here. This country needs to radically limit immigration and population growth, this makes sense in terms of what this country can support in terms of housing, food, space and prosperity.

Global warming isn't the only environmental issue we need to tackle. What about population growth and consequent pollution and pressure on our environment.

The world is ballooning out of control and we all know that soon we won't be able to feed all its mouths. Pressure on food, water and space will bring misery to a billion people unless we act now. Britain needs to act now by curbing immigration and population to bring a net loss in population numbers. We need to protect our ability to feed ourselves in the event of a global crack down on food supplies.

The idealistic view of free movement is non-sense and will only end up in civil unrest.

Labour is finished as a political movement. The working classes have abandoned the party for good because the party isn't listening to what that have to say. Ignore immigration and Europe and face 100 years of opposition.

"Lick Spittles" was an insult from George Galloway towards the weak response to the so called Weapons Of Mass Destruction lies from our own New Labour government.

Some of us don't like thousands of innocent people being killed over lies or our own troops killed because Gordon Brown won't fund them and they support a corrupt Afgan government that allows women in marriage to be raped or starved legally.

Galloway has more Real Labour instincts than any of this bunch of crooks - if you really support democracy why aren't you screaming about the way Frank Field and John Cruddas were treated where there wasn't even a leadership election in the party?

And I repeat I have voted Labour my whole life and believe me I cannot find a single person I meet who's going to vote for this lot again.

Labour should be the party of working class people but is full of careerists and lawyers who've never worked a single day in their life.

I expect Tories to have their snouts in the trough, they're Tories. I do not expect that of the Labour Party. I expected better. Are you deliberately missing my point or do you REALLY not get it?

David Milliband and his brother? Harriet Harman the countesses daughter? James Purnell? How many factory workers on 12 hour shifts do they represent?

Your dogmatic approach to this discussion (eg They were from Yorkshire) shows you either missed the point or are some student (probably media studies or law) without a clue about the real world.

And your claims of being friends with the mother of a 7/7 victim is just classic schoolboy stuff.

Leaving aside the odds of that being true so unlikely to be almost impossible, someone in her position would certainly not be "friends" with a person of your views.

Bliar said the rules of the game have changed - what's happened?

Usual New Labour talk and no action. And as for judging people by their haircuts, no comment.

And before you go justify please the lies and smearing of a man whose disabled son had just died.

Since when was looking after weaker people in society helped by that disgusting type of politics?

So what's the alternative, Rich - full alliance with the USA? Little Englandism really isn't a viable option. We are staying in the EU and everyone knows it.

As for immigration, I'm assuming you mean that there should not be any immigration OR migration. It has to work both ways. In fact, there is a lot of sense on having free movement within Europe whilst ensuring that there are firm immigration controls overall. This is not dissimilar to what exists now.

Population is not primarily about immigration, but birthrate, and I am sure that sustainability will mean that there will be a need to reduce population in time. But this will have to be considered globally. It can't be done effectively in isolation.

Interesting stuff ... and still pimping the defence industry I see Luke.

Did some field work last week with a lot of questions on economic literacy and also on GE issues.

Economic literacy was only fair I'd say even among largely AB respondents and NO-ONE - not one respondent - said economy had been particularly important in their last GE decision. A few said it had some bearing but most dismissed it.

Which was interesting.

Different question to how important re next GE of course ...

On your little list:

- iD cards will remain a hard sell and using illegal immigration dog whistle could put more off than it persuades- tax cuts for working poor ,,, yes yes yes- welfare to work is a bit problematic but not time to explain- crime and ASB, yes but with great care, not a weak issue for Tories is it? identification of "respect" with Hazey might be an issue- yes on defence nitty gritty, but remember this is a 15-20 year lead time for major items (allegedly) and so we are reaping what TORIES SOWED- big big yes on investment vs cuts, we need to model the world people will experience under easyCouncil and easyNHS and easySchools etc

Good to see you getting back your productivity Luke, keep it up, enough of your malingering ...-

1)"explain how ID cards, which the Tories oppose, are central to combating illegal immigration" - Or you could explain why we should waste money on this. It's not just the Tories who oppose this, any right thinking individual is against this. By the way, it won't stop illegan immigration.

2)"cut taxes for the lowest paid" - so why did brown scrap the 10p tax rate, and why is housing benefits in line for a shake up which would disavantage many low paid/poor people?

3)"get people from welfare into work to help cut the deficit" - 12 years and this still hasn't been done in a satisfactory manner. Treating people as people and not potential dole scroungers would be a start.

4)"reinvigorate the respect agenda on crime and anti-social behaviour, which has not been high-profile enough since 2007" - Respect is a two sided thing, you should start with our disrespectful police services.

5)"put more money into buying the defence kit the troops in Afghanistan need - which has the useful side effect of creating high quality industrial jobs" - or alternatively pull out of defending a deeply unpleasant and mysogenistic institution.

6)"above all explain how our economic decisions are driving the ongoing recovery from recession - decisions the Tories opposed" - No you should appologise for the decisions which took us into a recession in the first place, the lack of any real regulation, the failure to put a brake on consumer spending by the big earners, the failure to stop borrowing.

I would say that the election has already been lost, focusing on the above will not help.

"I can tell how someone votes from their hairstyle letalone from the words they use."

The reason for that mate is that New Labour supporters are like robots who tow the party line and they can't stand someone with a different opinion.

Many years ago it changed (I worked with Deggsy in the 80's) and the whole thing became stage managed like a fu**ing puppet show with thugs and bullies like Draper and Co leaning on party members to agree with their view or say nothing or face the consequences.

Old Labours de3ad now - look how they shat on Peter Law after 30 years loyal service.

No wonder the BNP has 2 MEPs it just shows how bad this lot are.

They can't win fairly so just smear nad lie about there opponents.

After the election I hope more mps like Alun Johnson & Tony Benn are in the party and less like Mandleson and his bunch of cohorts.

Things will change when we get rid of these public schoolboys preaching socialism to union members paying their fees to keep this lot afloat.

The right used to have principled Social democrats, Crosland and Hattersley are two that come to mind, who understood the Labour Tradition, this lot now are horrendous, Johnson included.

Luke if you want us to have some hope of elctoral success we need to rediscover our democratic socialist (social democratic) root and stick to it.

There is nothing socialist about neoimperialist wars, the ending of total free education, taxing the poor and privitising our health system. Maybe if we acted like Labour rather than like tories in bad suits, Labour voters and others might give us a second glance, but considering where we are we have a steep mountain to climb.

On paper Johnson meets the criteria for working class trade unionist, unfortunately this has not translated into any tangiable socialist principle, which you accept.

On paper Tony Benn should be on the social democratic wing of the party (he was well off), yet he is considered to be on of the most eliquent voices on our wing of the party.

The point is I don't really care where you come from in society as long as you have principle. Benn has it, Johnson has not.

As for Hattersley, it is a funny world when he is considered by some to be on the "loony left", but I think you would have to agree he is a key New Labour critic, especially on the slavish worship of the market they seem to espouse.

Did't the best Labour PM, Clem Attlee become a Lord?

Just for the record though I think the House of Lords should be scrapped and the commitees should occupy the role, just as they do in Scotland.

Yes on the background not being important but in 1964 we said we would raise schools to grammar levels and clearly haven't. That wouldn't be so bad if Diane Abbot and the like set an example and sent their kids to the local comp - but they don't.

Oh they will say "It's not safe to do it blah blah" but it is unprincipaled and shows them to be double standard hypocrites.

My only complaint with Hattersley is his slavish support for Brown who has shown himself to an indecisive thuggish bully.

I cannot believe we've got to a position where this man runs our country and for the record I never liked him from back in the John Smith days.

We should present as a left wing party and go down singing the Red Flag and lose but be principled than sell our souls just to get power.

If the stats show the majority in this country do not want to be in Europe we should live with it and convince them by explaining why we think we should be in instead of sneakily signing up to things without a referendum. I voted for the EEC, not this.

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About Me

Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.