Or, why does Obama continue to hold a small lead in that state while national polls have the race a dead heat. The three most recent Ohio polls (CNN, Time, and CBS/Quinnipiac) show President Obama with a lead of 4-5 points. Meanwhile, the latest ABC/Washington Post national tracking poll has the race a dead heat, with Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 48 percent.

How is that possible?

Three things: Democrats, white voters, and men. 1) The Democratic advantage in the Ohio polls is anywhere from 3-9 points (it was 8 points in 2008). Our latest national survey showed Democrats with a 4 point advantage on party identification. And, Obama is getting almost every single one of those Democrats to vote for him (anywhere between 92 to 94 percent). In 2008, Obama carried 89 percent of the Democratic vote.

2) In Ohio Obama does 7 to 11 points better among white voters and 7 to 12 points better among white men specifically than he does nationally. The three media polls from Ohio showed Romney getting between 49 to 53 percent of the white vote, while the ABC/Washington Post poll showed Romney winning white voters nationally with 60 percent of the vote. The CNN and CBS/Quinnipiac polls show Romney between winning 54  59 percent of white men . The ABC/Washington Poll shows Romney carrying white men by a whopping 66 percent.

3) Romney does better among men nationally than he does in Ohio. The national tracking poll shows Romney leading among men by 18 points. In Ohio, however, Romneys lead among men is a more modest 6 to 9 points. And, among women, Obama has anywhere from a 12 to 19 point lead over Romney.

Some on the ground data from our colleague LS, who is very much in tune with OH GOTV effort

He mailed me the following:
They had 27 Greyhounds to bus people over to election HQ to vote after President Obama came here. After the third bus arrived, empty, they quit. They had three floors set aside to register people. As you see . . . . LShttp://postimage.org/image/ciamn6csp/

The campaign should do a very focused 90 minute ad focused on Ohio males...run it limited time on tv, then push it through online ads all week. Target the real results of the auto bailout, and what should have happened, and why the bailout only hurt union workers while enriching the union bosses.

8
posted on 10/27/2012 9:28:13 AM PDT
by ilgipper
(Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)

if the situation was reversed, and polls in Ohio were in favor of a GOP candidate while the rest of the nation went the other way. this would be a non-issue in the criminal liberal media who would consider the Ohio situation an outlier...

I heard the best analysis of the election yet from Larry Kudlow this morning on his radio show...he had some guy on talking about what a great game obama has, more offices in Iowa, NH, etc compared to Romney and how the election is going to be a nail biter...

Kudlow said, “look- even with that, when you break it down by state, obama is not polling over 50% in any of the battelground states....look at Pa, a one point lead but he’s polling at 46% or 47%...if he’s polling below 50% today he won’t poll above it on election day...people know obama”...

Kudlow then went on to rip the guy apart about the ground game, talking about the GOP’s ground game in Wisconsin, winning the governorship then re-winning it in the recall as well as winning the courts despite the zillions of $$$ spent by unions...by the end of the conversation his guest was backpedaling...

13
posted on 10/27/2012 9:31:27 AM PDT
by God luvs America
(63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)

This is true. If the RNC and RR campaigns could shift the male vote by even a few percentage points this could be pivotal and it is very doable. They have to expose the false narrative that is bombarding OH voters especially union voters.

Democrats are so delusional that they think Ohio is in the bag. Wonder how many welfare dems won’t even bother voting because they assume Obama is going to be elected again. Rassmussen has Romney up by a whopping 6 points in the swing states which means that Romney is up close to 10 points. Let the dems think they have it in the bag. We are crushing them.

Well the pubbies better get on the stick! Drudge reports van loads of Somalians arriving to early voting. Of course there are no pubbie interpreters present but, by golly, the RAT interpreters are present. This is what our democracy has come to. If we can stop the RATS and their fraudulent voting we win, if we can’t........

Here is the problem. Ohio is a 37 GOP-36 Dem state. Even the most conservative pro Obama polls are oversampling Dems by at least +2 to give Obama an edge. Remove the most blantantly biased Democrat polls and you have a tie game in Ohio just like Rasmussen is projecting.

Let's assume what Drudge reports is true. (It probably is!) Organizing Vote Fraud needs to be treated as a near capital offense! In my mind it is as a fundamental attack on the sovereignty of the national as espionage. It corrupts our most fundamental and foundational institution the act of voting. Why don't GOP state & federal legislators introduce the necessary legislation?

I heard the best analysis of the election yet from Larry Kudlow this morning on his radio show.

Kudlow has been horrible predicting in his specialty,the economy. You can go to youtube and see him talk about sunny skies at two different points in time when we were about to go into a sharp downturn.

” Our latest national survey showed Democrats with a 4 point advantage on party identification. And, Obama is getting almost every single one of those Democrats to vote for him (anywhere between 92 to 94 percent). In 2008, Obama carried 89 percent of the Democratic vote. “

That doesn’t make any sense at all. Obama doing 4 points better this time around with Dems?

It does appear that u are ignorant and not aware of the multitude of data out there and choose to stick ur head in the sand. Even a cursory glance at ls, me, or @adrian_gray you would be infinitely more informed and not the ignoramus that u appear to be. We are optimistic but also realists too. I’ll post some updated early vote absenteeabsentee info on monday and then u can judge the hard data. Argue it or support it - but it is the data. And not some random amy walter commenting on white males based on a small sample. As a realist, looking at the data, fl, va, nc and oh and co are

I was worried about that too. Where is the governor checking on this? On the other hand, how many could it be? 3 vans hold about 10 people each. I wonder how many vans. Would have to be a lot to make a difference.

To finish, fl, va, oh, co are favorable. Ia and nv are iffy but very close. U obviously would be better served in dummieland. But i do admit i was startin to miss ur negative energy and posts so it’s nice to see u back

Before you start calling people names, it would help if you pull your head out of the sand and stop living in an echo chamber. Others at least offer constructive responses and attempt to de-construct the results or offer why they may even be correct (see xzins’ post) but if you have nothing intelligent to offer you need to go back to somewhere else in a land of echo-chamber residents.

Michael Barone — one of the best elections analysts out there by far — was on Fox News last night. He attributed the white male gap to a specific group of college-educated white males that may have been influenced by the Obama camp’s inundation of the airwaves around the time of the conventions.

He suggested that it may be easier for Romney to win a state like Wisconsin where that didn’t happen.

Barone, by far the best in this business, make an excellent point to explain what is clearly a huge gap in the “men” vote in OH from what is occurring nationally. I think Romney needs to hit back hard with ads that expose the false narrative that he wanted GM to go bankrupt and belly up. Unless the “men” vote gap is narrowed all indications are that this may prove to be a firewall that catapults Obama into a second term.

‘Organizing Vote Fraud needs to be treated as a near capital offense! In my mind it is as a fundamental attack on the sovereignty of the national as espionage. It corrupts our most fundamental and foundational institution the act of voting”

You’re 100% right but who has faith in the DOJ? Holder’s in charge, and I’m sure most of, if not all, US Chief Attys. are democRATS.

You are not going to have a solid 5% lead in the national election and lose Ohio.

I'd tend to agree with you. My hunch is that since these polling operations got the election wrong last time around because of the early vote, they are overcompensating this go round.

There is a definite oversampling of those who claim to have voted already as opposed to the percentage that have voted already. And that subgroup that allegedly is breaking 60/40 Obama is too statistically insignificant at the end of the day. Ohio has generally been within a few points of the national result. I'd be shocked if it wasn't there at the end of the day. It can happen, but is very unlikely.

Actually one could argue its primarily a state issue. It's unfortunate that “treason to the state” is no longer a legal concept.

But you are right about Holder, hopefully when he is gone enough of “Fast & Furious” can be laid on his doorstep that he might be faced with “talking” or getting extradited to Mexico for murder. That might be motivational!

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