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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seems to have been inspired by his viewing of the Dr. Seuss’ movie The Grinch this December. As Christmas was approaching, Chairman Powell, the Grinch himself, and his other Federal Reserve (The Fed) cronies were busy discussing raising rates and normalizing the balance sheet. The Fed —this group of Grinches—seemed resolute in […]

The past six months was a period of extremes for financial markets around the globe. U.S. stocks ended 2018 in the red, as they experienced their worst year since 2008. Negative volatility was also felt globally and across most other asset classes as bonds and commodities suffered similarly. Financial asset weakness was primarily caused by rising […]

Macro Overview A change in the Federal Reserve’s stance on the direction of interest rates helped buoy equity and bond prices higher in March, allowing U.S. equity indices to post the strongest first quarter in nearly ten years. The Federal Reserve scaled back its growth expectations for the U.S. economy and announced that it would […]

Some investors put all their money in one boat, the stock market. They ride the ups and downs of the market, moving things around as needed and generally trying to stay abreast of the constantly changing circumstances of business and the financial markets. If they’re smart, lucky, and/or have knowledgeable advisers, they get a decent […]

Macro Overview U.S. equities continued to defy negative sentiment and sanguine market readings as tepid economic data advanced stocks higher in February. Equities posted their best first two months of the year since 1991, rebounding from the volatile fourth quarter of 2018. Gross domestic product (GDP), the primary measure of U.S. economic growth, expanded at […]

Macro Overview A resilient U.S. economy drove equity markets to the best January in 30 years, propelling stock indices to new year gains which had not been seen since January 1989. Job and wage growth skirted the government shutdown as the number of employed increased in January along with rising wages. The unemployment rate ticked […]

The Federal Reserve is having its Hotel California moment. The Fed began quantitative easing in 2008 with a balance sheet of $800 billion, growing to $4.5 trillion. Even with quantitative tightening, the balance sheet will not be reduced back to normal levels below $1 trillion. The Fed has paused on raising rates due to a slower economy in […]

Investors got a big lump of coal in their stockings this Christmas. For equity investors, the decline in prices that started the first week of October reached a crescendo on December 24th, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the worst Christmas Eve decline in its history, with the Average declining more than 1300 points (5.8%) […]

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Disclaimer- STATEMENT OF DISCLOSURES CONCERNING
THIS BOOK AND ITS AUTHOR Benjamin C. Halliburton is the sole author of this book and is solely responsible for its contents. Neither Tradition Capital Management, LLC (Tradition), nor its employees or members, are responsible for its contents. Though Mr. Halliburton is an owner/member of Tradition, he is not writing or providing any information in this book that is meant to be promotional of Tradition, its services or its investment strategies. Any current of future client of Tradition may or may not utilize, or be advised by personnel of Tradition to utilize, any investment strategy or any asset class or investment direction mentioned in this book. The author recognizes that many factors must be considered in the application of any professional investment management strategy or direction which may be employed for any client, including any strategy or suggestion mentioned in this book. Readers are therefore advised that the contents of this book are for information and education only and are not to be construed as any form of advocacy for the services of Tradition as more particularly described below. The following is provided as further disclosure concerning the author’s employer and its services: Tradition is a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Registered Investment Adviser under the federal Investment Advisers Act and provides portfolio management and related services for a fee. Nothing in this book should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares or units of any security, or provide investment- related services by Tradition. Investing in stocks and other assets could result in losses, and positive returns are not guaranteed. Diversification may reduce risks of capital loss but does not eliminate these risks. Expected returns, expected risk, and long-term expected returns are not forecasted returns or risks but are only statistical definitions for modeling purposes. Actual results could vary materially from these returns and could result in losses. Financial assets are also exposed to potential inflation and liquidity risks. Past performance of any strategy or asset class, including any mentioned in this book, or, any strategies and asset classes employed at Tradition at the time of the publication date of this book is not indicative of future results, and all investments could lose value in the future. At a given time, any investment asset class or other forms of investment assets may lose value and result in substantial losses as more particularly described below under Risk Disclosures. Neither the author nor Tradition makes any assertions, estimates, nor guarantees about future results from any strategies and individual assets contained therein.
RISK DISCLOSURES CONCERNING INVESTMENT
ASSETS AND INVESTMENT ASSET CLASSES Investing in stocks, bonds, and other assets that present various forms of risk to investors could result in losses, and positive returns are not guaranteed. Diversification only reduces risk of capital loss and does not eliminate this risk. Measures of expected return and/or expected risk are not forecasts of returns or risks but are only statistical definitions for modeling purposes based upon financial and statistical analyses. Past performance is no indication of future results, and all investments or assets could lose value in the future due to a variety of financial factors. Due to volatility exhibited in various investment markets, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, and other forms of invest – able assets, including asset classes described in this book, investors are advised that these markets may not perform in a similar manner in the future. Among other risks that can affect value, financial assets are also exposed to potential inflation and liquidity risks. Investors may experience different results in any chosen investment strategy or portfolio depending on the time and placement of capital into any assets associated thereto. The performance of a specific, individual investments may vary substantially from the examples and graphs in this book. Investors are cautioned that they should carefully consider fully diversifying their total personal investment allocations to incorporate a variety of investment assets, which also may include stocks, stock mutual funds and ETFs, international assets, bonds and fixed-income instruments (where appropriate), and other non-stock/bond investments (e.g., without limitation, real estate, reinsurance, alternative lending, timberland, VRP harvesting, real assets, and other asset classes as they have been discussed in this book, or, may be advised or analyzed through other information sources). The graphs are for illustrative purposes only to show possible return profiles of various asset classes. These illustrations are not historical returns and are not projections of future returns. These illustrations are not compliant with any independent investment performance measurement standards including those of the Global Investment Policy Standards organization and are shown only for illustrative purposes. Mr. Halliburton does not make any assertions, estimates, or guarantees about future results. Future results are unpredictable and could result in losses. Expected long-term returns are not forecasts or guarantees and are merely reasonable long-term goals for diversified strategies. Actual results could vary materially from these expected long-term returns and could result in losses. For example, and not exclusively among all graphs displayed herein, the “Average vs Compounded Expected Returns & Risk Impact” graph (Figure 7.3) illustrates the difference, for each diversified strategy and the stock-and-bond-only comparable, between the expected average returns and compounded returns of the median result of a Monte Carlo simulation of 5,000 trial twenty-year periods. Over 5,000 random trials of twenty years, half the results should be above and half below the median. This is not a forecast or prediction and is graphically presented for illustrative purposes only. Many of the asset classes discussed in this book can be accessed through mutual funds and the interval fund subset thereof. Please review the full prospectus of any fund that you are considering. There are no express or implied recommendations or endorsements of any mutual fund, exchange traded fund, any investment vehicle or asset manager employing any strategy in this book, including any firms or individuals who may have been named. These name references are made in the text for commentary and sourcing for definition and explanation of asset classes and strategies only. It does not express or imply any person’s or firm’s endorsement of any aspects or text within this book, nor this book’s endorsement of them. The full range of risks pertaining to any individual fund or asset, and advisory or cautionary disclosures regarding same is beyond the scope of this book. The author’s personal or recommended utilization of any strategies or asset classes for deployment within portfolios may change over time and without notice.