8
2020s 2050s 2080s Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

9
North America: Key messages A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly documented Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost every region –Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves –Changes in precipitation patterns Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases and increase competition for water resources Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in agriculture Opportunities for improving adaptation Opportunities for mitigation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

23
Biofuel Production Concerns Changes in land use, and potential conversion of conservation lands to biomass production. Impact on soil carbon Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality impacts. Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food and feed availability and prices. Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels production. Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and enhanced wildlife benefits.

24
So What is the Potential? Globally –It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of the annual CO 2 emissions United States –It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of the annual CO 2 emissions –Additional options for N 2 O and CH 4 The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value

25
Conclusions: Mitigation Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors Many mitigation options improve sustainability Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.