Big cities are still waiting for recovery

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The recovery made only slow advances in October and was still skirting major population areas, according to the latest Adversity Index from Moody's Economy.com and msnbc.com.

The recovery made only slow advances in October and was still skirting most major population areas in the U.S., according to new readings of the Adversity Index from Moody's Economy.com and msnbc.com.

Nearly one in three metro areas have started to recover. (The full list is below.) Out of 384 metro areas in the nation, 118 were in recovery, or 31 percent, according to the October Adversity Index. That's up from 100 metro areas in September and 79 in August, the first month when any areas showed a rebound beginning.

A much larger group, 264 areas, had a "moderating recession" in October, meaning their economies were still shrinking but not so severely as earlier this year.

That leaves two metro areas still spiraling downward in a full recession, both of them in Nevada: Las Vegas-Paradise and Carson City.

Each month, the Adversity Index uses government data on employment, industrial production, housing starts and home prices to label each state and metro area as expanding, at risk of recession, in recession or recovering. The index was developed by msnbc.com and Moody's Economy.com, which sells in-depth economic forecasts on metro areas.

In most states the recovery has so far not taken hold in the largest metro areas.

In New York, for example, the three areas in the recovery category are Buffalo-Niagara Falls, Ithaca and Utica-Rome. In Tennessee, the only two are Clarksville and Cleveland. Five metro areas are in recovery in North Carolina, but not Charlotte.

Two areas shifted from the recovery category into the recession category: Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas and Kalamazoo-Portage, Mich.

"Recovery" doesn't mean that an area's economy is above where it was at the beginning of the recession, just that the area has begun to dig its way out of the hole.

No metro area yet is shown in "expansion," the most positive category; that label is triggered when a metro area's economy grows past its previous peak. Most of the recovering areas are far from that level.

‘Play’ the index
Here are several ways to explore this month's Adversity Index:

An interactive map above this story shows the economic health of every state and metro area. You can "play" the map to watch the economy's ups and downs over 15 years, or select any state to see data for each metro area for each month. You can also see the map on its own page.

Regional outlook from Moody's Economy.comIn its monthly regional forecast, Moody's Economy.com found that the economy is recovering first in the central plains, where unemployment has stabilized, and that the recovery is only starting to spread outward.

"Many Plains and nearby Mountain state economies are now recovering," wrote Steve Cochrane, managing director at Moody's Economy. "The next region likely to turn the corner will be the Southeast, except Florida and perhaps Georgia, where housing markets remain so uncertain." High numbers of bank failures in the Southeast are also a concern, he wrote.

State by state
Looking at the state-level data, there was only one state that moved into the recovery category in October: Alabama. It joined Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Washington, D.C. Within those states some metro areas are still in recession.

Nevada was the only state left classified as being in a full recession in October, according to the Adversity Index. All other states were in a moderating recession.

Metro areas in recoveryHere are the 118 metro areas where the Adversity Index shows a recovery under way in October. Several of the metro areas cross state lines and are listed more than once.

Washington, D.C. (0 out of 1): The broad metro area, which includes parts of Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, is still in recession, though the narrower District of Columbia itself is listed in recovery.

Elkhart's economy started to improve in August, based on comparisons with figures posted six months earlier.

But if you compare Elkhart's numbers with a year earlier, or go even further back, it's clear that it may take a long time to return to the highs of the past. According to the index, Elkhart was one of the first areas outside of Michigan to slip into recession when its downturn began in December 2006.

Here are Elkhart's Adversity Index numbers for the three-month period ending in October, compared with a year earlier, along with the biggest losers and winners among all metro areas:

Employment in the Elkhart-Goshen metro area fell 7.94 percent from a year earlier, compared with 8.47 percent the previous month. That ranked near the bottom of metro areas, 379th out of 384. The worst declines were in Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, Mich., down 9.19 percent, and Flint, Mich., down 8.18 percent. The greatest increase in jobs was in Kennewick-Richland-Pasco, Wash., up 3.79 percent, followed by Sandusky, Ohio, up 2.25 percent.

Industrial production in the Elkhart area fell 8.75 percent year over year, compared with a 13.55 percent decline a month earlier. Once at the very bottom, Elkhart has moved closer to the middle in manufacturing output, ranking 217th out of 384. The worst decline was Gary, Ind., down 17.47 percent, followed by Erie, Pa., down 17.04 percent. The largest increase was in Wichita, Kan., up 4.51 percent, followed by Sebastian, Fla., up 2.62 percent.

Single-family housing starts fell by 55.64 percent in Elkhart from a year earlier, ranking near the bottom, 374th out of 384. The worst decline was in Decatur, Ill., down 80.29 percent, followed by Battle Creek, Mich., 73.79 percent. The greatest increase was in Beaumont, Texas, where housing starts rose 111.79 percent from a year earlier, then Vallejo, Calif., up 108.22 percent.

Home prices, the fourth component of the Adversity Index, will be updated when quarterly figures are released.