The Best and Worst Fantasy Football Draft Picks of 2015

Antonio Brown was not the best draft pick in fantasy football last year.

He scored the most fantasy points by a wide receiver in 2015, and was the best overall player in fantasy football in terms of value. Everyone would have loved him on their roster.

But when it comes to evaluating draft picks in fantasy football, you have to consider when each player was drafted, and Antonio Brown’s pre-season average draft position was #2 overall in PPR leagues.

So if you drafted him, congratulations. You had a solid first round draft pick that you could build the rest of your team around. However, you received about as much value out of your first round pick as you should have.

To truly evaluate draft picks, we should compare the actual value received as compared to the player’s projected value before the season started.

“How many more fantasy points did this player score than a baseline player at his position?”

The definition of what to use for the baseline is open for interpretation. In this article, we will use a traditional method of defining the baseline as the worst starting player at that position.

For example, if you start 3 wide receivers in a 12-team league, the question becomes:

“How many more fantasy points did Antonio Brown score than the 36th best wide receiver?”

In points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, Antonio Brown’s total fantasy points was 386.2. If we take that and subtract the 36th best wide receiver’s (Marvin Jones) total fantasy points (173.9), we get 212.3 points of value.

Brown’s 212.3 value was the highest in the league this year.

As the #2 overall player drafted in leagues last August, he was projected to generate 197.2 points of value based on his draft position. If you drafted him at #2 overall, you were expecting him to provide that much value to your team.

When his league-best 212 value is compared to his expectation of 197, he actually only outperformed his projected value by by about 15 points.

Now that we have a method of calculating the difference between pre-season expected value and actual value, let’s apply it to every player (ignoring kickers and defense).

Pre-season Average Draft Position Data

For reference, below is a draftboard-view of the archive of 12-team PPR average draft position data from the day before the NFL season kicked off:

You can surely find some overachievers and duds yourself just by scanning the table. We’ll continue below with the cold-hard numbers to help identify objectively who the best and worst draft picks were.

Actual Fantasy Points and Value

To review the top performers of 2015 regardless of draft position, below is a table of the top 30 players who generated the most value:

Scroll left-to-right on mobile for full table.

#

Name

Pos

Team

Draft Position

Proj. Value

Actual Value

1

Antonio Brown

WR

PIT

2.5

197.2

212.3

2

Julio Jones

WR

ATL

6.2

145.4

197.2

3

Brandon Marshall

WR

NYJ

50.5

35.1

169.3

4

DeAndre Hopkins

WR

HOU

28.7

58.8

157.2

5

Devonta Freeman

RB

ATL

96.3

-18.5

156.1

6

Odell Beckham Jr

WR

NYG

11.4

102.4

145.4

7

Allen Robinson

WR

JAC

53.5

25.5

130.1

8

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

ARI

84.1

-0.9

110.6

9

Rob Gronkowski

TE

NE

10.3

110.6

106.6

10

Adrian Peterson

RB

MIN

1.8

212.3

102.4

11

Cam Newton

QB

CAR

119.1

-48.0

102.1

12

A.J. Green

WR

CIN

16.7

95.0

101.8

13

Jordan Reed

TE

WAS

156.0

-110.0

99.2

14

Demaryius Thomas

WR

DEN

9.1

123.9

97.5

15

Jarvis Landry

WR

MIA

36.6

47.2

96.5

16

Delanie Walker

TE

TEN

98

-19.7

95.4

17

Doug Baldwin

WR

SEA

148.4

-87.5

95.0

18

Calvin Johnson

WR

DET

13.1

102.1

89.5

19

Gary Barnidge

TE

CLE

156.0

-110.0

88.3

20

Eric Decker

WR

NYJ

105.3

-26.5

80.8

21

Greg Olsen

TE

CAR

45.1

37.5

80.4

22

Danny Woodhead

RB

SD

69

8.8

79.8

23

Brandin Cooks

WR

NO

20.6

79.7

79.7

24

Doug Martin

RB

TB

38

45.1

78.0

25

Jeremy Maclin

WR

KC

38.8

44.9

71.3

26

DeAngelo Williams

RB

PIT

129.1

-61.0

71.1

27

Lamar Miller

RB

MIA

22.3

78.0

69.6

28

Tom Brady

QB

NE

67

11.5

60.1

29

Jordan Matthews

WR

PHI

24.4

71.3

58.8

30

Michael Crabtree

WR

OAK

135.6

-74.3

57.3

Table of players sorted by total value generated for 12-team PPR leagues in 2015. Assumes starting rosters of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and uses the worst starting player at each position for the baseline.

For undrafted players, they were given a rank of 156 (13 rounds * 12 teams) and the projected value 3 points lower than the last drafted player of that position. That was used as a general estimate of the free-agent’s pre-draft value.

Who Was The Best Draft Pick?

Now for the question of the day, who was the best draft pick of 2015?

To answer that, we’ll simply subtract the projected value for each player from their actual value. That will tell us who outperformed their draft position the most.

#

Name

Pos

Team

Overall

Proj. Value

Actual Points

Actual Value

Value Diff

1

Jordan Reed

TE

WAS

156.0

-110.0

248.2

99.2

209.2

2

Gary Barnidge

TE

CLE

156.0

-110.0

237.3

88.3

198.3

3

Doug Baldwin

WR

SEA

148.4

-87.5

268.9

95.0

182.5

4

Devonta Freeman

RB

ATL

96.3

-18.5

320.4

156.1

174.6

5

Allen Hurns

WR

JAC

153.9

-110.8

227.1

53.2

164.0

6

Benjamin Watson

TE

NO

156.0

-110.0

192.5

43.5

153.5

7

Cam Newton

QB

CAR

119.1

-48.0

445.5

102.1

150.1

8

Kamar Aiken

WR

BAL

156.0

-119.6

199.4

25.5

145.1

9

Tavon Austin

WR

STL

156.0

-119.6

196.7

22.8

142.4

10

Travis Benjamin

WR

CLE

156.0

-119.6

195.8

21.9

141.5

11

Brandon Marshall

WR

NYJ

50.5

35.1

343.2

169.3

134.2

12

Blake Bortles

QB

JAC

156.0

-88.3

388.4

45.1

133.4

13

James Jones

WR

GB

153.9

-115.7

191.0

17.1

132.8

14

DeAngelo Williams

RB

PIT

129.1

-61.0

235.4

71.1

132.1

15

Michael Crabtree

WR

OAK

135.6

-74.3

231.2

57.3

131.6

16

Willie Snead

WR

NO

156.0

-119.6

185.4

11.5

131.1

17

Ted Ginn Jr

WR

CAR

156.0

-119.6

183.9

10

129.6

18

Theo Riddick

RB

DET

156.0

-108.1

181.0

16.7

124.8

19

Donte Moncrief

WR

IND

156.0

-119.6

173.3

-0.6

119.0

20

Richard Rodgers

TE

GB

151.6

-107.2

160.1

11.1

118.3

21

James Starks

RB

GB

156.0

-108.1

172.3

8.0

116.1

22

Delanie Walker

TE

TEN

98.0

-19.7

244.4

95.4

115.1

23

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

ARI

84.1

-0.9

284.5

110.6

111.5

24

Charles Sims

RB

TB

150.3

-91.3

184.0

19.7

111.0

25

Eric Decker

WR

NYJ

105.3

-26.5

254.7

80.8

107.3

26

Allen Robinson

WR

JAC

53.5

25.5

304.0

130.1

104.6

27

DeAndre Hopkins

WR

HOU

28.7

58.8

331.1

157.2

98.4

28

Rueben Randle

WR

NYG

147.7

-86.5

184.7

10.8

97.3

29

Kirk Cousins

QB

WAS

156.0

-88.3

352.1

8.75

97.1

30

Buck Allen

RB

BAL

156.0

-108.1

149.7

-14.6

93.5

Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge scored the highest on this list of players who outperformed their pre-season projected value. However, technically, they were undrafted.

Now we’ll take that same data and sort it by the worst difference between actual and expected value.

This table also includes a new column, “G”, which is the number of games played this year. We’ll dig into that more soon, since injuries impact these results.

#

Name

Pos

Team

G

Overall

Proj. Value

Total Points

Actual Value

Value Diff

1

Tony Romo

QB

DAL

4

80.8

0.0

58.5

-284.9

-284.9

2

Andrew Luck

QB

IND

7

16.9

89.5

163.6

-179.8

-269.3

3

Peyton Manning

QB

DEN

10

54.9

24.6

130.9

-212.5

-237.1

4

Le'Veon Bell

RB

PIT

6

3.1

169.3

111.2

-53.1

-222.4

5

Dez Bryant

WR

DAL

9

7.6

135.1

89.1

-84.8

-219.9

6

Jamaal Charles

RB

KC

5

4.5

156.1

105.1

-59.2

-215.3

7

Marshawn Lynch

RB

SEA

7

8.6

130.1

82.7

-81.6

-211.7

8

Eddie Lacy

RB

GB

15

4.0

157.2

144.6

-19.7

-176.9

9

Charles Johnson

WR

MIN

11

61.6

16.9

21.7

-152.2

-169.1

10

Victor Cruz

WR

NYG

0

91.3

-10.4

0.0

-173.9

-163.5

11

Nelson Agholor

WR

PHI

13

56.6

22.8

57.3

-116.6

-139.4

12

Arian Foster

RB

HOU

4

37.5

46.1

79.0

-85.3

-131.4

13

CJ Anderson

RB

DEN

15

10.7

108.9

145.3

-19.0

-127.9

14

Andre Ellington

RB

ARI

10

43.7

39.6

76.7

-87.6

-127.2

15

Colin Kaepernick

QB

SF

9

147.5

-85.3

133.4

-210.0

-124.7

16

Brian Quick

WR

STL

13

106.8

-29.5

20.2

-153.7

-124.2

17

Carlos Hyde

RB

SF

7

44.7

38.7

81.3

-83.0

-121.7

18

Justin Forsett

RB

BAL

10

19.3

79.8

122.4

-41.9

-121.7

19

Davante Adams

WR

GB

13

34.6

47.5

106.3

-67.6

-115.1

20

Joseph Randle

RB

DAL

6

56.6

24.1

74.0

-90.3

-114.4

21

Tevin Coleman

RB

ATL

12

88.9

-5.6

48.6

-115.7

-110.1

22

Adrian Peterson

RB

MIN

16

1.8

212.3

266.7

102.4

-109.9

23

Eddie Royal

WR

CHI

9

84.6

-1.7

66.7

-107.2

-105.5

24

Alfred Morris

RB

WAS

16

48.2

37.4

96.6

-67.7

-105.1

25

Andre Johnson

WR

IND

16

37.7

45.8

115.3

-58.6

-104.4

26

C.J. Spiller

RB

NO

13

57.9

19.7

81.1

-83.2

-102.9

27

Knile Davis

RB

KC

15

121.2

-50.6

17.6

-146.7

-96.1

28

Sam Bradford

QB

PHI

14

82.1

-0.1

252.1

-91.3

-91.2

29

Breshad Perriman

WR

BAL

0

145.4

-83.2

0.0

-173.9

-90.7

30

Reggie Bush

RB

SF

5

129.5

-65.6

8.7

-155.6

-90.0

This list is clearly dominated by injured players. So we should first break up the “Worst Draft Pick” distinction into two categories: “Worst Draft Pick Due To Injury” and “Worst Draft Pick Due To Performance.”

By total value, Tony Romo wins the “Worst Draft Pick Due to Injury” award.

Injuries are a way of life in the NFL, and the 2015 season was no exception.

Since the table of worst draft picks was dominated by injured players, let’s look at that data on a per-game basis instead. That will remove from the equation how many games the player didn’t play due to injury.

You’ll see guys like Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles don’t appear on this list since they performed well before they were injured.

#

Name

Pos

Team

G

Overall

Proj. VBD Per Game

Actual PPG

Actual VBD Per Game

VBD Diff Per Game

1

Eddie Lacy

RB

GB

15

4.0

9.8

9.6

-0.7

-10.5

2

Peyton Manning

QB

DEN

10

54.9

1.5

13.1

-8.9

-10.5

3

Victor Cruz

WR

NYG

0

91.3

-0.7

0.0

-10.9

-10.2

4

Charles Johnson

WR

MIN

11

61.6

1.1

2.0

-8.9

-10.0

5

Dez Bryant

WR

DAL

9

7.6

8.4

9.9

-1.0

-9.4

6

Nelson Agholor

WR

PHI

13

56.6

1.4

4.4

-6.5

-7.9

7

Brian Quick

WR

STL

13

106.8

-1.8

1.6

-9.3

-7.5

8

Tony Romo

QB

DAL

4

80.8

0.0

14.6

-7.4

-7.4

9

CJ Anderson

RB

DEN

15

10.7

6.8

9.7

-0.6

-7.4

10

Adrian Peterson

RB

MIN

16

1.8

13.3

16.7

6.4

-6.8

11

Alfred Morris

RB

WAS

16

48.2

2.3

6.0

-4.3

-6.6

12

Marshawn Lynch

RB

SEA

7

8.6

8.1

11.8

1.5

-6.6

13

Andre Johnson

WR

IND

16

37.7

2.9

7.2

-3.7

-6.5

14

Tevin Coleman

RB

ATL

12

88.9

-0.4

4.0

-6.3

-5.9

15

Knile Davis

RB

KC

15

121.2

-3.2

1.2

-9.1

-5.9

16

Breshad Perriman

WR

BAL

0

145.4

-5.2

0.0

-10.9

-5.7

17

Davante Adams

WR

GB

13

34.6

3.0

8.2

-2.7

-5.7

18

Jeremy Hill

RB

CIN

16

14.4

6.1

11.0

0.7

-5.4

19

Ameer Abdullah

RB

DET

16

41.5

2.7

7.6

-2.7

-5.4

20

C.J. Spiller

RB

NO

13

57.9

1.2

6.2

-4.1

-5.3

21

Andre Ellington

RB

ARI

10

43.7

2.5

7.7

-2.6

-5.1

22

Bishop Sankey

RB

TEN

13

100.2

-1.2

4.6

-5.7

-4.5

23

Reggie Bush

RB

SF

5

129.5

-4.1

1.7

-8.6

-4.5

24

Randall Cobb

WR

GB

16

15.9

6.0

12.7

1.8

-4.2

25

Andrew Luck

QB

IND

7

16.9

5.6

23.4

1.4

-4.2

26

Aaron Rodgers

QB

GB

16

27.1

4.4

22.2

0.2

-4.1

27

Mike Wallace

WR

MIN

16

89.9

-0.6

6.2

-4.7

-4.1

28

Tre Mason

RB

STL

13

109.0

-2.1

4.1

-6.2

-4.0

29

Sam Bradford

QB

PHI

14

82.1

0.0

18.0

-4.0

-4.0

30

Jordan Cameron

TE

MIA

16

76.9

0.3

5.7

-3.6

-3.9

The table shows that Eddie Lacy and Peyton Manning tied for the worst per-game performance. They each receive the distinction of “Worst Draft Pick of 2015.”

Did Anyone Match Their Projected VBD exactly?

Yes. Brandin Cooks. He was projected to generate 79.7 points of value, and he finished the year with exactly that much value.

Conclusion

In addition to highlighting the best and worst players, there are some general trends in the data.

First, a lot has been written about the running back and quarterback busts this past year. The data here supports both the Zero-RB and Late-Round QB strategies. A lot of running backs and quarterbacks disappointed this year. And besides Dez Bryant, there weren’t any highly drafted wide receivers that greatly underperformed.

The story is a bit more complex though. There were quite a few late-round or undrafted wide receivers who greatly outperformed their expectations. So while the top tier WRs were worth their price, you could have also found solid wide receiver production from the extremely late rounds if you were lucky.

That closes the book on 2015. Hopefully you can use these results to improve your draft strategies for next season.