This, Tombs argues, is bad news for Britain's already fragile economy. Effectively, Britain is a net consumer of oil — meaning it uses more foreign oil that it can produce itself.

"Britain has been a net consumer of oil since 2006, because production from ageing, depleted oil fields in the North Sea has plunged," Tombs writes.

"A mini-revival in production since 2014, facilitated by investment during the period of triple-digit oil prices, has done little to close the shortfall with consumption. The U.K.'s net consumption of oil amounted to 584 million barrels in 2016, as our first chart shows."

Here is that chart:

Pantheon Macroeconomics

Tombs estimates that the increase of $10 per barrel in Brent crude oil in recent weeks "will subtract 0.2% from nominal GDP, provided that net consumption remains at the 2016 level."

That's because oil prices are acutely felt by consumers — the great drivers of the UK economy.

"The pain of higher oil prices will be felt swiftly by consumers; motor fuel prices respond to changes in crude prices with a lag of just three weeks," Tombs argues.

"Our second chart shows that the jump in oil prices is consistent with year-over-year growth in manufacturing output declining to about zero next year, from 2.8% in September," Tombs says.

Here is that chart:

Pantheon Macroeconomics

Not only will Britain have to contend with the economic uncertainty Brexit has caused going forward, but so too will it have to cope with the negative impact of more expensive oil.

Tombs is not all doom and gloom, however, noting that in theory "higher oil prices—if sustained—should encourage firms to switch to less oil-intensive means of production and they should incentivise households to consume services instead of goods."