Monday, March 21

Roasted Turkey, European Toast

'What have we done?'

The common logic of Chancellor Hitler and President Erdoğan is based on the unification of 'race' and the cleansing of the population. Hitler wanted to unite the populations of 'German race' and cleanse them of 'foreign elements' (the Jews and the gypsies), while Erdoğan wants to unite the populations of 'Turkish race' and cleanse them of 'foreign elements' (the Kurds and the Christians).

In 1938, the European elites believed in the friendship of Chancellor Hitler, today they believe in the friendship of President Erdoğan.

The above is closing remarks from Thierry Meyssan's dire warning today to EU leaders, Facing Turkey, Europe chooses suicide.I have explained before that in my view Thierry is crazy only half the time, the problem being that one has to know as much history as he does about a country to figure out when it's not silly time at Voltaire Network.

That caveat out of the way, I think enough is correct in his assessment to make it worthwhile reading. He brings out aspects about Turkish President Erdogan's views that are not widely known, and seem to have been overlooked by the Obama Administration and Congress. The oversights add up to Erdogan and his political party being more dangerous than Washington bargained for. Everybody in Washington knows that he wants to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire but this has made him more a laughing stock in Washington's view than a serious threat. Thierry warns that Erodgan is not just another Muslim leader trying to start a caliphate; he's managed to get much of an entire continent -- Europe -- over a barrel. And while Thierry doesn't dwell on this point, Erdogan got tremendous help in this from EU leaders themselves.How? Because the leaders told so many lies about Bashar al-Assad that it's now almost impossible to publicly walk them back -- although President Obama did try in a recent interview when he said that it was never certain that a chemical attack in Syria was the work of Assad's regime. Thus, the moral to the tale of how Erdogan managed to get the upper hand with the European Commission. Liars will see the consequences of their lies returned to them many fold. The character lecture is no help at this point to the EC, which had to decide between making peace with Assad's government and accepting the deal Erdogan offered them to tamp down the refugee crisis in Europe. They came down on the side of the deal. But as the caption Thierry supplied to the above photo indicates, they know they're toast if Erdogan doesn't hold up his end.What's to stop him from laughing in their faces? Nothing, Thierry warns. To top it off:

By signing an agreement with Turkey to slow the influx of refugees – which happens to be illegal in international law – the leaders of the European Union have taken a step further in their pact with the devil. A large part of the 3 billion Euros annually allotted to Ankara [to deal with refugees] will serve to finance support for the jihadists, and as a result will increase the number of migrants who are fleeing the war.

Above all, by repealing the visa regulations with Turkey in the next few months, the Europeans are establishing free circulation between the Al-Qaïda camps in Turkey and Brussels. By crushing the Iraqi and Syrian people under the pressure of the jihadists whom they are indirectly financing, and abandoning the Turkish people to the dictatorship of President Erdoğan, they are preparing the foundations for a vast confrontation of which they will themselves be the victims.

That's his opening remarks; between the first and last words in the article he lays out just what kind of people the EC have made a deal with. Several of the details he supplies would be a surprise to Americans and possibly the majority of readers in Europe.This noted, I do have a dispute with one of Thierry's remarks. He wrote:

We have already analysed the way in which the United States wanted to use the events in the Near East in order to weaken the European Union.

I doubt the US has wanted to weaken the EU. I do think the Obama Administration was alarmed by clear signs of a historic warming of relations between Chancellor Merkel's Administration and the Russian one, which at the time (2010 if my memory serves) was headed by Dmitry Medvedev while Putin was serving as prime minister. From this I speculate that the Obama Administration has sought to weaken Angela Merkel's leadership. Because I couldn't back up the speculation with any specific sources, I didn't mention it on my blog, and mention it now only because I'm recommending Thierry Meyssan's article.As to whether I think Thierry's concerns about Erodgan's designs on Europe are overblown, I'd guess that depends on whether the regime is actually desperate. Last week Gregory Copley (Defense & Foreign Affairs/GIS) told John Batchelor that Turkey was in far worse economic condition than the mainstream media had reported. I don't have the link to the podcast of the discussion so I can't refresh my memory about all the details he provided. But I clearly recall that he said FDI in the country had dried up.So I'd have ask about the extent to which Turkey's government has been depending on profits from clandestine oil smuggling. From what the Russian government revealed about Turkey's oil smuggling network, it's possible it was set up as early as the sanctions against Saddam Hussein's regime. Also probable that the network handled not only clandestine shipments for Iraq's regime but also Iran's while that country's oil exports were under sanctions.

Such a scenario might explain not only Turkey's good economic reports for years but also Erdogan's badly soured relations with the Kurds -- if Kurds were in competition with his regime to handle smuggled oil for Hussein's regime. And it could explain how Erdogan's political party got so much power over the Turkey's military, which has always been a mystery to me. Again, I am speculating about all this but the point is that the smuggling network would have taken a huge hit. Oil export sanctions on both Iraq and Iran are lifted, and Islamic State's smuggling of stolen Syrian (and Iraqi) oil has been slowed to a trickle by relentless bombing raids. So if Turkey's economy was greatly dependent on oil smuggling, Erdogan could be getting desperate right about now. But today Sputnik plopped out with an observation at the very end of their report, Turkey Is 'One Step Away' From Dictatorial Powers for Erdogan:

The current opposition, however, could not be counted on "to put Erdogan in his place," according to Erdem, as the chief opposition parties have lost the trust of the populace.

So he might not be all that desperate, which could translate into his being a little less dangerous than Thierry fears in his roast of Erdogan's regime.

[flipping a pen in the air] I'm going to cook supper now. No, not turkey. ********

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