On Wall Street and in Hollywood, examiners and officials don’t accept whatever remains of 2014 can compensate for the soak slide at the North American film industry. Year to date, income is down 5.6 percent to $7.2 billion (from $7.6 billion in 2013), powered by an emotional 15 percent drop this late spring and a Sept. 5 weekend that saw the most reduced earns since just after the 9/11 assaults.

“It was a fiasco,” says investigator Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. of the mid year, noting that few tentpoles failed to meet expectations in the U.s., including Sony’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction. “There was a lot of stuff for individuals to go see that they ordinarily need to see,” he includes. “Something is going on that isn’t useful for studios and theater chains. U.s. purchaser propensities are evolving.”

That hypothesis will be put under a magnifying glass in the fall and winter. While worldwide earns stay solid, experts accept the ideal situation for the U.s. would be that the year-over-year crevice could be contracted to 3 or 4 percent by year’s end if a few top titles perform well.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (Nov. 21) and Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Dec. 17) are required to match or surpass their 2013 portions. Yet past those surefire hits, enormous inquiries remain.

Can Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar (Nov. 7) recreate the wild achievement of Gravity, which earned $274.1 million locally in fall 2013? Will David Fincher’s Gone Girl, featuring Ben Affleck (Oct. 3), outgross the $100 million local of Fincher’s latest two movies, The Social Network and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo?

On the family side, few accept Disney Animation’s Big Hero 6 (Nov. 7) or Dreamworks Animation’s The Penguins of Madagascar (Nov. 26) can attain the breakout achievement of Disney’s Frozen, which took in $400.7 million locally the previous winter.

In any case both ought to do well, as ought to Shawn Levy’s Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb (Dec. 19), returning Ben Stiller to an establishment that has aggregated more than $425 million household in excess of two movies.

“Unless something leaves left field, we’ll be down in the third and fourth quarters,” says expert Eric Handler of MKM Partners, noting extreme examinations against a year ago, which had Thor: The Dark World ($206.4 million) opening in November. “Something needs to truly break out.”