2007 NBA Draft Analysis

At the combine, Greg Oden covered three-fourths of the court in 3.27 seconds...by taking two steps.

Kevin Durant's subpar performance in Orlando probably cemented Oden as the first pick in the draft. Durant looked and moved like an 18-year-old at Texas, so I don't think his numbers come as a big surprise. I'd say it's fairly normal for a 6'9" kid to need a little time to reach his athletic potential. Not everyone is Lebron James or Greg Oden.

Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard has likely concluded that Durant will have a long learning curve in the NBA (can you say "weight room"?). Conversely, Oden is almost guaranteed to make a devasting impact on the defensive end from Day One.

2. Boston Celtics (from Seattle) — Kevin Durant

Will Danny Ainge throw the farm at Lenny Wilkens?

After Durant's showing at the combine, Wilkens will certainly be open to offers. The Celtics are beyond desperate right now, and a trade of Paul Pierce, Gerald Green, and the number-five pick might be too enticing for Seattle. The Sonics could then afford to let Rashard Lewis go without a sign-and-trade...and use the five spot to draft Yi Jianlian, whose appeal in the Far East would ease Seattle's financial woes.

And while such a deal is an outrageous long shot, there's something to be said for the obvious hints that Durant doesn't want to play in Seattle. Can you see him sticking around for more than three years? His agent might make this pretty clear to Paul Allen and company. But again, I speculate.

3. Atlanta Hawks — Brandan Wright

The Hawks should package one or both of their picks and some of their young players while they still have value (hello Marvin Williams) for someone who is actually a legitimate basketball player (a point guard, maybe). Take Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and screw the rest.

But this won't happen. They Hawks will draft Wright, throw him in the mix with all their other underdeveloped players, and be right back here next year...when they'll inexplicitly decide to pass on Ty Lawson.

4. Memphis Grizzlies — Al Horford

Set in stone. Hopefully for him, the league has the sense to relocate the Grizzlies to San Diego.

5. Seattle Sonics (from Boston) — Yi Jianlian

So marketable. Think about it.

6. Milwaukee Bucks — Mike Conley Jr.

Mo Williams has different bucks in mind. Conley should enter with Rajon Rondo-like results—meaning he's talented as all hell but can't shoot yet.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves — Jeff Green

Future NBA All-Star Jeff Green should thrive in Minnesota.

8. Charlotte Bobcats — Joakim Noah

Noah is probably undervalued right now...which is hard to believe given how overvalued he was a year ago. I really think that Billy Beane could win a few NBA championships in his free time.

9. Portland Trailblazers (from Chicago) — Julian Wright

Chad Ford (of ESPN) wrote yesterday that the Blazers would likely pull the trigger on a deal for the number-nine pick and P.J. Brown in exchange for Zach Randolph. Sounds good to me.

Portland's 2007 starting lineup will essentially be a selection of random college all-stars from the past three years. Won't be easy to re-sign all these guys down the road.

10. Sacramento Kings — Corey Brewer

Brewer looks a lot taller on TV (he's really 6'7"). For someone whose stock was based on height, length, and athleticism, Brewer's results at the combine are a little disconcerting. He'll need to improve his ball-handling and shooting to crack a starting lineup...though maybe not if he ends up in Sacramento.

11. Atlanta Hawks — Javaris Crittenton

Great potential and the exact opposite of what the Hawks need. Brilliant.

12. Philadelphia 76ers — Al Thornton

Should be the recipient of many lobs from Andre Miller. With his astounding athleticism, it would be fun to watch Thornton play alongside Andre Iguodala.

13. New Orleans Hornets — Nick Young

Nick Young has star potential. His ability to shoot and slash should mesh with Chris Paul.

14. L.A. Clippers — Acie Law IV

After one year of hope, this franchise turned around and walked back into its cave. It could get ugly fast next year.