WHAT’S NEW?

1. They are moving on without Mat Latos. Latos was supposed to be the franchise ace for several years to come. He had developed into a solid No. 1 and was still under team control for four seasons. Then new general manager Josh Byrnes traded him to Cincinnati for a four-player package that included first baseman Yonder Alonso and righthander Edinson Volquez. Alonso is the top chip in the trade for San Diego, but Latos’ absence leaves the rotation weak. Volquez has shown flashes of greatness but never for more than a few games at a time, and he is probably a middle-rotation arm even on this young staff.

2. They have their third first baseman in three years. When Adrian Gonzalez was traded to Boston last offseason, it made room for hitting prospect Anthony Rizzo. But like many who hit in Petco Park, Rizzo struggled. Now the Padres have Alonso, another big-time hitting prospect who made Rizzo expendable (he was traded to the Cubs). In 117 big league at-bats, Alonso has put up promising numbers: a .299 average, .354 on-base percentage and .479 slugging percentage. His power is still not completely developed, but the Padres just need him to get on base and collect extra-base hits, not necessarily home runs, for now.

3. They have an ace-in-waiting. Once the Padres knew they could deal Rizzo, they wanted someone in return who could be a game-changer. It was a risky move, but Andrew Cashner could be that kind of pitcher. He’ll throw out of the bullpen this season, maybe as a setup man, because he is coming back from a rotator cuff injury that didn’t require surgery. The Padres will give him a chance to start next spring training because they could use his high-90s fastball and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings in the rotation. If he can stay healthy this season and be a reliable starter in 2013, the Rizzo-for-Cashner deal won’t appear as one-sided as it did when it happened.

PROJECTED LINEUP

1. CF Cameron Maybin. He played in a career-high 137 games last season but struck out a career-high 125 times.

2. 2B Orlando Hudson. His numbers dropped across the board in his first year with the Padres. He had a career on-base percentage of .346 entering 2011, when he posted a .329 mark.

3. 3B Chase Headley. He hit .289 with a .374 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage last season. If that line stays steady or improves, he’ll be a solid offensive threat.

4. LF Carlos Quentin*. He should be good for 20 to 25 homers and an on-base percentage near .350—once he returns from knee surgery (perhaps in late April).

5. 1B Yonder Alonso. The pressure will immediately be on him to become a legitimate middle-of-the-order offensive threat

6. C Nick Hundley. He is coming off his best offensive season, hitting .288/.347/.477, although he played in just 82 games.

7. RF Will Venable. He regressed in most categories in 2011, though he did improve his strikeout rate—92 in 411 plate appearances.

8. SS Jason Bartlett. He had a .245 average in 2011, his worst since becoming a full-time player. That, and his .308 on-base percentage, can’t all be blamed on his first season at Petco.

*Expected to begin the season on the D.L

PROJECTED ROTATION

1 RHP Edinson Volquez. His career 4.65 ERA has come mostly with the Reds, but that can’t be attributed to the team’s hitter-friendly park—his road ERA is 4.64.

2. RHP Tim Stauffer. Because the team lacks a No. 1 starter, he could line up against the league’s best pitchers, which could lower his winning percentage (9-12 in 2011).

3. LHP Cory Luebke. The numbers he produced in his first full season as a starter were promising: a 3.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 154 strikeouts in 139 ⅔ innings.

4. LHP Clayton Richard. A shoulder problem limited him to just 18 starts and 99 ⅔ innings last season after a 14-win, 200-inning 2010 campaign.

PROJECTED CLOSER

RHP Huston Street. He still has great control and a solid strikeout rate (8.5 per nine innings last season). He is the next in the line of strong Padres closers.

SCOUT’S VIEW

Strengths: “They traded Latos, so they don’t have a No. 1 starter. They don’t have Adrian (Gonzalez), so they don’t have a feared hitter. I guess the strength is their youth and that they have maybe the best feeder system in the game. That’s going to allow them to compete in this division and keep their payroll somewhat down.”

Weaknsses: “They don’t have a lineup that can hit. … It’s not just where they play. This team would struggle to score in most parks. And without Latos, there is no ace. But it’s possible in that park you don’t really need to have one.”

BOTTOM LINE

It won’t be impossible for the Padres to finish better than fifth, but that’s not where the smart money lies. They lost big pieces of their rotation and bullpen, and the offense might be slightly better—but not enough to keep them in contention all season.