As I write this, a warm front is barreling toward north central Ohio on gusty southwest winds. If the clouds get out of the way, we could see temperatures in the mid-60s this afternoon.

Don't get used to it. A strong cold front will be following right on the heels of the warm front, probably arriving by late afternoon. A few drops of rain could squeeze out of the clouds and make it to the surface, but we should largely remain dry.

If you have high school football plans tonight, don't be fooled by the mild afternoon. Temperatures will begin diving after dark, and winds will be up. And the weekend is going to be even chillier.

Our temperatures probably won't make it out of the 40s on Saturday, and cloudy skies with an active wind will make it feel even colder. We're looking at a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday, but anything that falls will be very light.

Sunday will be marginally better, with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature that might just pierce 50 degrees. But if you have any outdoor plans this weekend, bundling up is advised. And if you're thinking about going out on Lake Erie at this late date, what are you thinking? Expect small craft advisories all weekend up there, as the colder half of the year is nosing in now with enthusiasm on the water.

For the record, snow showers are in the forecast Saturday night in northwestern Pennsylvania. I'm talking about crazily cold places like Bradford, we won't see any snow here. Still, it's coming in closer.

My bell peppers, which were quite vigorous this fall, got blitzed by a hard freeze last Sunday morning. If you haven't encountered that yet, you almost surely will this Sunday morning, with forecast low temperatures in the 20s across the region.

Finally, this is probably going to be our last good weekend for fall foliage. This has been a great year for color, certainly a lot better than 2013. But we're at peak right now in the central highlands, if not just past it, and we're already getting quite a bit of leaf drop.

Below are the weather statistics for Thursday, Oct. 16 at my location 4 miles north-northwest of Fredericktown, Ohio:

Conditions – Mostly cloudy and seasonal

High temperature – 61; low temperature – 45; (last year, 63 and 43)

Precipitation – 0.01 inches

High barometer – 29.76 inches; low barometer – 29.69 inches

Peak wind gust – 10 mph, south

High dew point – 51

Heating degree days – 12

Today's normal high and low temperatures (Mansfield) – 61 and 41

Today's record high and low temperatures (Mansfield) – 85 in 1938, 25 in 1940

Today's sunrise/sunset times – 7:43 a.m./6:47 p.m.

Moon phase – waning crescent, 33 percent visible

U.S. extreme temperatures – 96 at Altus, Okla.; 16 at West Yellowstone, Mont.