There's a punchers chance that the Kings take Lillard at 5. In that scenario, I take Barnes or MKG (who ever is left) at 6, and a big at 11: Drummond, Leonard, Henson, Zeller (in that order).

Otherwise, I take Lillard at 6, and one of these guys at 11: Drummond, Leonard, Rivers, Henson, Zeller (in that order).

I've been high on Drummond for a while now, but after doing more *homework*, developing him for 3-4 years then watching him get scooped in free agency would be brutal. So basically, it's not only the Oden/Bowie scenario that could bite the Blazers in the ace, it's the Jermaine O'Neal scenario as well. If he's there at 11, and he almost surely won't be, his defense right now makes taking him worth the risk.

Lillard scares me too because it's hard to assess his abilities when his level of competition was so bad. And he and his agent did well to keep this a mystery by only doing solo workouts (modulo the combine of course). But let's face it, EVERY pick comes with risk. At the end of the day, I'll roll the dice on the kid who is a grade A human being as well as a damn good player.

This comment is somewhere between smoke-and-mirrors and dead wrong beav...

Why top 8? That's an odd number. Blazers have 6 and 11. Hmmm. Lets take this year by year...

11-12: Miami can play Mugsy Bogues at C and still win it all. OKC has Perkins, a 1st round center, that they didn't draft. But I'd say Perk was worth the 1st round investment.
10-12: Dallas won, IMHO, because of Tyson Chandler, the 2nd overall pick in '01. Again, chosen by another team but worth the investment made.
09-10: Lakers. Ever heard of Andrew Bynum? 10th pick by the Lakers. Oh, okay that's why you drew the cutline at 8! BTW-they beat Boston with Perkins.
08-09: See above. And, remember Dwight Howard? Yeah he was there too.
07-08: Boston. Perkins. Hmm, his name keeps popping up. Beat the Lakers. Bynum.
06-07: Spurs. Duncan. I know not really called a C, but who are we kidding? If that guy isn't a center, I'm Donald Duck.
05-06: Miami and Shaq beat Dallas and Eric Dampier (#10 pick).
... Spurs 3 more times. And Shaq with the Lakers 3 more times.

And lastly, Dwight Howard was NOT a sure thing. "Some critics fear he lacks passion and might be more Kwame Brown than Kevin Garnett." (http://preps.scout.com/2/269335.html) Sounds familiar huh?

Nic is worth WAY more than $5.4M. Sure, he's not an all star (yet?), but let's take a look at the 2012/13 salaries of a few other PFs in his skill range:
Gay $16.4M
Deng $13.3M
Gallinari $9.4M
Marion $8.6M
Marvin Williams $8.3M
Ariza $7.2M

Batum made $2.1M last year!

I really don't get where all this Nic bashing is coming from. He's a very good, young SF who can be even better if the Blazers bring in a PG who can set him (and LA) up. Just don't be hatin when Paul Allen hands him that $8M to $10M check... That's what he should be making!

While I've been at the front of the Andre Drummond parade here on the O-Live site, I have to admit that Lillard may wind up being a special player. ...or Nolan Smith may be better than he is... But then again, Lillard has a dead solid shot, unreal work ethic, great attitude, and nice athleticism... Heck, the Kings may take him at 5. Go watch the Youtube clip of Lillard's workout in Sacramento... Dude only missed one shot, a 3. Yeah, the video was spliced together, but there were several stretches of 4-6 straight shots. Bobby Jackson looked floored.

These picks are going to be VERY tough calls for the Blazer brass. Man, I hope they get them right...

In a vaccuum I say pass. But there are scenarios where Jones would be a nice get at 11. Suppose the Blazers take Lillard at 6, resign Batum, lose Hickson, and bring over Freeland. Jones could be a very nice 3/4 rotation player in this scenario.

Again with the Drummond being lazy, "questionable motor", etc stuff... I objected before and got roasted for it because my point was misunderstood. So, I'll try again. You can say many negative things about him, mostly related to his poor shooting, but the guy is a rare athlete who runs the floor extremely well. Maybe some people look at him and conclude that he's lazy because his shot is so terrible. Given that he's 18, and spent one year in a program that has a history of under-developing/misusing big men (Okafor, Thabeet) and devoting 99% of the offense to wing players, I think the “motor” criticism is way off.

I'm not saying he's a can't miss prospect, but if you think he's a sure miss prospect, you're kidding yourself. His athleticism and defensive ability alone – measured right now, not on future potential – make him a top 7 pick. And BTW that is exactly what the Blazers need right now with LA at the 4. Then if you want to get squirly and try to factor in offensive “upside”, what do you have?

If you’re too afraid of reliving Oden or Bowie fiascos, you’ll never get a guy like Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum.

I agree that Sloan would be a good hire. Good job (above) in bringing out most of the important points. One more that I think needs to be said regarding the Nate v. Sloan comparison is:

IMHO, Nate's biggest failure was that he did not give his youner players much of a chance to develop. For example, anybody with more than one good eye saw that Elliot Williams was the Blazers most dynamic backcourt player. I do not not remember Sloan ever having a problem playing his promising young players. Just ask Wesley Matthews.

Um, what is it about Drummond that readers on this site keep saying he doesn't work hard? Shedding weight for the combine? Young=lazy? Just being big? Can't shoot FTs? Seriously, I don't get it. If he's there at 6 the Blazers should AND will take him.

Interesting that the small school PG who led the nation in scoring is getting all the love while the small school PG who led the nation in assists has to workout for 20 teams to get drafted. Don't NBA teams like PGs who can pass the ball?

Another thing I find interesting is that for all the talk about Lillard being an efficient scorer, Machado shot a better FG%.

Taking Sullinger means moving LA to C. Could be a good move, but I just don't know what JS brings defensively. A frontcourt of LA and JS is all offense and no defense. Seems like what he Blazers really need is a shot-blocking, rebounding PF/C who attacks the rim when the opportunity presents itself. That sounds like Drummond or Hensen, not Sullinger.

Ehhh, I don't see the conspiracy here. Brandon wanted to be his old self with the same lead-dog role on the team he's always had. He had docs chirping in his ear about long term knee issues, but he was probably willing to risk it (again) for the glory. Then the Blazers tell him he's going to have to take a lesser role on the team. So he's like, "Uh no, I'm out. Docs say I can't play." Blazers say, "Hmm, okay. Works for us." End of story. I know that's not exactly how either party laid it out to us when he retired, but EVERYBODY knew that's what was going on.

However, I would add that the desire say the right things, act like a a pro, and cast yourself in a good light shows me that you intend to be a guy who works hard to be great. All other things being equal, I'd take the guy with a chip on his shoulder over the "I know I'm great" entitled punk who shuts it down when he sees his first check.

EFFF THAT! I'd take my chances with some combination of Beal, Barnes, Drummond, or at 6 and Hensen, Marshall, Leonard, Rivers, Zeller, or Waiters at 11. There's a better chance one of the two the Blazer take from that group become an all star than there is of Thomas Robinson becoming one sharing time with LA at PF. This "chatter" is total BS. Keep dreaming Charlotte.

BPA. Really?? THAT, my friend, is much easier said than done. In the eyes of many, Bowie and Oden were the best players available at the time. They just didn't work out. On the flip side, BPA might have landed us "Porn Stache" Morrison instead of LA. Crazy to say, but many people thought Porn Stache was the second coming of Larry Bird, with better facial hair.

The point being, you can't bat 100% all the time. The Blazers have had a history of bad picks and bad health with good picks.

Suppose the first 5 go: Davis, Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Barnes (not necessarily in that order). Regardless of need, who is the BPA? I don't know...