Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.

Race

Date

Team Rating

Kate Svensen

Tara Connelly

Lindsey Lucas

Jody DiCicco

Hannah Chamblin

Jacqueline Thorne

Emma Cary

Delaney Kimball

Kelly Arsenault

Trista Leo

Bonnie Wilder

Umass Minuteman Invitational

09/09

1207

21:13

21:19

21:55

21:56

21:42

Ted Owen Invitational

09/23

1173

21:01

21:09

21:38

21:32

22:27

21:54

21:53

23:32

23:04

23:30

Ualbany Invite

10/14

1201

21:16

21:13

21:38

21:46

21:55

22:01

21:53

23:04

23:42

23:49

24:57

Northeast Conference Championship

10/28

1166

20:52

21:25

21:30

21:29

21:53

22:19

22:42

22:56

24:24

Northeast Region Championships

11/10

1169

21:07

21:19

21:14

21:19

21:56

23:11

23:15

NCAA Tournament Simulation

Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.

Team Results

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Ave Score

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

NCAA Championship

0.0%

Region Championship

100%

21.2

598

0.1

0.6

0.9

1.7

2.9

2.8

5.3

5.3

8.4

11.9

12.8

13.6

11.0

8.8

5.9

4.1

2.2

1.0

0.9

0.3

0.1

NCAA Tournament Simulation - Individual Results

Regional

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Kate Svensen

84.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

Tara Connelly

100.7

Lindsey Lucas

122.3

Jody DiCicco

123.7

Hannah Chamblin

172.0

Jacqueline Thorne

176.1

Emma Cary

190.6

NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total

Region Finish

Chance of Finishing

Chance of Advancing

Auto

At Large Selection

No Adv

Auto

At Large

Region Finish

1

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

8

8

9

9

10

10

11

0.1%

0.1

11

12

0.6%

0.6

12

13

0.9%

0.9

13

14

1.7%

1.7

14

15

2.9%

2.9

15

16

2.8%

2.8

16

17

5.3%

5.3

17

18

5.3%

5.3

18

19

8.4%

8.4

19

20

11.9%

11.9

20

21

12.8%

12.8

21

22

13.6%

13.6

22

23

11.0%

11.0

23

24

8.8%

8.8

24

25

5.9%

5.9

25

26

4.1%

4.1

26

27

2.2%

2.2

27

28

1.0%

1.0

28

29

0.9%

0.9

29

30

0.3%

0.3

30

31

0.1%

0.1

31

32

0.1%

0.1

32

33

33

34

34

35

35

36

36

37

37

38

38

39

39

40

40

41

41

42

42

43

43

44

44

Total

100%

0.0%

100.0

0.0

0.0

Points

At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.