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11/09/2014

FORT WORTH, Texas - Watching TCU toy with No. 7 Kansas State should leave no doubt as to the national legitmacy of the Horned Frogs. Watching Baylor embarrass Oklahoma in Norman a few hours earlier on Saturday only does the same for the Bears.

As to which team is better - TCU or Baylor - head to head should always be the No. 1 factor. Baylor beat TCU earlier this season, and that should be it.

The fact that TCU remains ranked higher than Baylor despite the Frogs' three-point loss in Waco on Oct. 11 is a total indictment on the short-sighted scheduling by coach Art Briles and athletic director Ian McCaw.

(Yes - I have been beating this dead Bear for months and will continue to do so until this issue is no longer relevant.)

The Baptists are gambling it all that the college football playoff selection committee will ultimately regard the head-to-head with TCU as the decisive element in this debate. What is working against Baylor is that the game was in early October, it was close, and a non-conference schedule that impressed no one.

The only reason Baylor is not ranked higher than TCU right now in any poll is can summed up with a non-conference schedule consisting of SMU (0-8), FBS Northwestern State (5-5) and Buffalo (3-6).

It's not as if TCU's non-conference slate is a death row, but TCU head coach Gary Patterson has mastered the illusion of the fake hard game. He has learned to find the right team from the power conference to create the appearance of slaying a monster. In the past, he found a Virginia, a Clemson, or an Oregon State to do the trick.

In this case, the Frogs' slaying of a Gopher has done the trick and created a debate: Is TCU or Baylor more worthy of a final four spot. Know this - no conference outside of the SEC is going to land two teams in the final four.

TCU's 30-7 win against Minnesota is the reason the Frogs' are ahead in the polls, but on closer inspection the Gophers are no Buckeyes. Minnesota is 7-2 and fattened itself on a slew of bad teams - Eastern Illinois, Middle Tennessee, San Jose State, and a Big 10 schedule that remains soft. Minnesota has not defeated a Top 25 team.

But the Gophers have won far more than they have lost, thus providing the difference for TCU's case. Of note - UM plays No. 14 Ohio State, No. 13 Nebraska and No. 25 Wisconsin to close the season. UM's 7-2 could be 7-5.

Had Baylor played anybody from a legit Power 5, the Bears would be ahead of TCU in every poll. Had Baylor played anybody, it would mitigate the Bears' 14-point loss at West Virginia on Oct. 18.

This brings to mind when I asked McCaw back in July during Big 12 media days about their schedule.

"When we scheduled the three non-conference opponents this year we were in the midst of a 15-year bowl drought; the philosophy was, let's get to six wins and bowl eligibility," McCaw said. "Our goal is to win three non-conference games, and set us up to have a great year in the Big 12 and hopefully win a Big 12 championship."

He added: "I want us to play a name opponent, but I want us to play a name opponent in January and not September."

With remaining games against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State, there is a good chance Baylor will do just that, jump TCU and reach college football's new final four.

But Baylor's decision to schedule garbage in the non-conference has made this a debate when there should be none, and left the Bears vulnerable when they should be secure.

On Saturday, when Coach Bro's Texas Tech Red Raiders visit Fort Worth, TCU should be down to one such opponent. TCU is favored by 23 points. Considering the circumstances, Gary Patterson should step on Coach Bro's throat and do everything in his power to cover the spread, and then some.

TCU has a shot at the Big 12 title, and the college football final four. There is a committee involved, and when there is a committee that means there is the eye-ball test.

"Supposedly if you won out ... (TCU) beat Kansas State, at West Virginia and go to Texas and win. On the road at (Kansas)," Patterson said. "I think the quality of the schedule that is left would" make it a possible situation to reach the final four.

In Patterson's mind, it's not about points or margin of victory but who you played, and beat.

"You are looking at the quality of opponent, where you played," Patterson said. "I think the Baylor game being in Waco helped us even in a loss."

Despite the loss in Waco two weeks ago, TCU only dropped to 12th in the polls. The Horned Frogs are in the right spot to make a run at the final four, provided they don't lose. If they keep winning, they will be right on the edge of the top four.

Every team not in the SEC is going to need all the help it can get, so a few blowouts are in order.

Even though the college football playoff will lean heavily on data, when it comes to people they always use the vague and person-specific eyeball tests. As much as voters will insist margin of victory does not sway opinion, blowouts help.

Gary Patterson always likes to say "One point", but when it comes to impressing the playoff selection committee, always go for two.

10/05/2014

FORT WORTH, Texas - Of the many upsets TCU has enjoyed since Gary Patterson became its head coach, its 37-33 win on Saturday over Oklahoma warranted a good field-rush by the fans, but it should not come as a major surprise.

From the sidelines, it was apparent quickly TCU was a big underdog in name only. TCU entered its game ranked 25th, but it was apparent quickly they were/are much closer to the then No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners than previously thought.

TCU could run with, stand up to, and push Oklahoma. These are not your Rose Bowl TCU Horned Frogs. The Rose Bowl-team was an intelligent group, but this team has players who can compete with the biggest and best of the Big 12. TCU was ready to win and close out this kind of game against that caliber of opponent.

TCU's win over OU was not an accident, or much of an upset. The Horned Frogs were the better team, with the better quarterback, and they deserved to win. Watching this game you had the feeling they would beat OU again. Not 10 out of 10 times, but five out of 10.

In the AP's latest Who the Hell Knows What The Top 25 Really Is Poll, TCU is No. 9. TCU's next opponent, Baylor, is fifth. The USA Today poll has TCU 12th, and Baylor No. 3. The Bears received one first-place vote in the USA Today poll.

(BTW - I love this photo of No. 24 celebrating the win with his teammates, and a TCU bro' who squeezed in 9 on Saturday morning before he hit the tailgate. Ryan DeNucci is the backup place kicker, does not look like he dropped a single bead of sweat during this game, and will have this memory forever. This is why college football is better than the NFL.)

TCU's front seven, specifically the linebackers, are able to do the things Gary Patterson needs in order to work. They are active, athletic and make plays near the line of scrimmage. He will not like the fact they gave up 33 points, or that OU receiver Sterling Shephard had 215 receiving yards. Gary should be thrilled that TCU held OU running back Samaje Perine to an average of 3.5 yards per rush, and QB Trevor Knight threw two interceptions and completed 40 percent of his passes.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin looks like a player who has two years of experience, and knows what to do. He also competes like his life depends on every play. The line in front of him is improved, and his ability to move alleviates any pressure they feel to hold blocks for a more coventional passer. In college football, a decent line with a mobile quarterback can buy yards, points and wins.

TCU should not be expected to win the Big 12, but it should no longer be a big surprise when they beat Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.

08/29/2014

FORT WORTH, Texas - David Pollack is a relative newcomer to ESPN as an analyst, but the man is not short on opinions. God love him. Pollack is in Fort Worth as part of ESPN's Game Day coverage that is in Sundance Square for the Cowboys Classic featuring No. 1 Florida State vs. Oklahoma State. (#FloridaSt. #OklahomaState)

I asked Pollack which among the teams in Texas has the best chance to reach college footbal's Final Four.

"Baylor (#Baylor) has a shot. In the Big 12, there are a lot of teams that offensively that have a lot of question marks and you don't with them," Pollack said. "Their strength is so strong it doesn't matter if your weakness is a little bit of defense. They are deeper in the defensive front seven and they are better. The back end will be interesting because they lost some guys. I think they will be fine.

"Offensively, they are going to be so hard to stop."

I asked if he thought Baylor can defeat Oklahoma (#Oklahoma), even though the game is in Norman.

"Absolutely," Pollack said. "I'm not necessarily the biggest Oklahoma supporter. I'm not buying Oklahoma. Their schedule is awesome. The only team they play on the road with an above .500 record is Texas Tech. (Quarterback) Trevor Knight does not show me enough. When has Oklahoma delivered? Oklahoma is going to have to show me they can be consistent. That's what we are used to with Landry Jones and them putting up crazy numbers."

The rub for Pollack is that among the Power Five conferences, despite Baylor's strength he does not think the Bears a lock for the Final Four. Pollack believes Florida State is a given, as are teams from the SEC and Pac 12. That leaves one team from the Big 12 and Big 10.

"I don't see a team that I am hitching my wagon to," Pollack said. "I don't have a Big 12 team in the Final Four."

08/07/2014

DALLAS, Texas - Finishing 4-8 does not lend itself to many positives, but on closer look there is a good reason to believe why TCU will finish with a winning record and better than its projected finish of seventh in the Big 12.

TCU was 4-8 last season, but "in" seven games. The "other" games that were decided before the fourth quarter - SE Louisiana, SMU, Kansas, OK State, Texas - the Frogs were 3-2.

"In" meaning they were either ahead, tied, or close in the fourth quarter of seven games. The Frogs' record in those games was 1-6:

1. Aug., 31: LSU 37, TCU 27 TCU trailed 30-27 with 7:30 remaining, but chased this game from the beginning. At no point did it feel like LSU would lose.

2. Sept. 12: Texas Tech 20, TCU 10 The game was tied at 10 in the fourth quarter. TCU out-gained Tech 401 to 336, but could not take the lead in a game that it felt like it should have won.

3. Oct. 5: Oklahoma 20, TCU 17 TCU trailed 13-10 after three quarters, but at no point did it feel like they were going to win this game.

4. Nov. 2: West Virginia 30, TCU 27 (ot)This was a game TCU should have won, but deserved to lose considering how it played. The Frogs needed 10 points in the final three minutes to force OT against a bad West Virginia team at home.

5. Nov. 9: TCU 21, Iowa State 17A dog-ugly game throughout; TCU led 14-7 at the half. ISU led 17-14 in the fourth quarter before TCU won it on a short touchdown run with 38 seconds remaining.

6. Nov. 16: Kansas State 33, TCU 31The Frogs grabbed the lead late, but allowed a last-second field goal to lose.

7. Nov. 30: Baylor 41, TCU 38This was the upset TCU should have had; Baylor returned two interceptions for touchdowns, and scored 21 points off turnovers. The Frogs were driving late but QB Casey Pachall threw another pick in the endzone to end the game.

If the results from just a few of those types of games flip for TCU in 2014, this should be a seven or eight-win team.

"I believe we can win every game," TCU safety Sam Carter said. "Those are in the past. We were close, but close doesn't get you anything. Those teams beat us. If we were close, we would have won. I am not big on, 'Oh, you were an inch short so it's OK that you lost.' Be an inch above."

Carter refused to buy my theory that those seven close games in 2013 are a positive for this team in 2014.

"You can look at it that way, but if I do that I would look at my whole life and say, 'What if I had done this or what if I had done that?'" Carter said. "We went 4-8 for a reason."

07/25/2014

Having written a few media guides at Kansas, Southwest Missouri State and TCU I am well familiar with the large potential for a typo or two in "the book."

But what Texas did in its own 2014 football media guide is rather impressive. This is making the rounds; click on this and you can see at the bottom of EVERY page in the '14 UT football media guide is the following:

www.texsasports.com

Here is the best part - somebody has already built a website domain using that address. When you go to that web address you will find:

The sad/funny/amazing part of this is that this error required several sets of eyes to see it before it was actually printed in its final form. The author, co-author, editor, and then a few people at the actual printer itself saw this without noticing the goof.

Don't worry, though; there are only thousands of these things printed and distributed nationally. No one will notice.

11/24/2013

This does not happen often, but the caring people of Las Vegas whiffed when they had Baylor as 9-point favorites to defeat Oklahoma State. If there was such a thing as free money this was it.

The reason Baylor lost on Saturday night in Stillwater, thus ruining the Bears' shot at a BCS title, or a BCS game, is simple: Oklahoma State has been the best team in the Big 12 since the summer. We forgot because the Cowboys had the audacity to lose at West Virginia on September 28.

Baylor is the second-best team in the conference, and Saturday's result bore that out. Play the game again, Oklahoma State wins again. As much credit as Art Briles and all of Baylor deserves for the job they have done to make that university a national threat, the same needs to be said for Mike Gundy and T. Boone Pickens in Stillwater.

It was funny to listen to ABC color analyst Kirk Herbstreit applaud the OSU administration for making the commitment, etc. It wasn't the administration. It was a billionaire fan burying the school in money with the intention of one thing - making his football team a winner. Make no mistake, the Oklahoma State Cowboys belong to T. Boone.

What seemed impossible for so many years - Oklahoma State on equal footing with Oklahoma - is nearly complete with the coaching/recruiting done by Mike Gundy, and the cash supplied by T. Boone Pickens.

Lots of college football programs throw around money, and it does not work all the time, but T. Boone's money has been spent wisely in Stillwater. He has what he wants: A winning football team.

A football team that is better than Texas, better than Oklahoma, and better than Baylor.

11/18/2013

For the second time in the last four years a little private, religious affiliated school from the great state a Texas is making all kinds of national noise in the college football scene.

In 2010, it was TCU with a defense that didn't allow anybody to score.In 2013, it is Baylor with an offense that can score at will.

If Baylor can finish the season undefeated - the Bears are anywhere from 9 to 13-point favorites for its game on Saturday at Oklahoma State - they will have equaled what TCU did a couple of seasons ago, ostensibly against far greater competition.

What TCU did in 2010 to not only finish the season undefeated but score an invite to the Rose Bowl and then win that game is this program's greatest achievement in the modern era. That season changed the university, and led to an invite from the Big 12.

What Baylor is doing in 2013 is harder, but not by leaps and bounds.

Both Baylor in 2013 and TCU in 2010 are/were great teams loaded with next-level talent.Both teams blew away schedules that were not what the experts call "very good."

The Big 12 may be down, and Baylor's non-conference schedule is an embarrassment, but the Big 12 this season is awlays better than the Mountain West Conference of any season. TCU is experiencing that now.

In 2010, TCU defeated three opponents that were ranked at the time, and one that finished the season in the Top 25:30-21 v. No. 25 Oregon State. The Beavers finished the season 5-7.47-7 at No. 6 Utah. The Utes lost 3 of its last 5, and were not ranked in the AP Top 25 after the season.21-19 v. No. 4 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl). Badgers finished No. 7 in nation.(It's worth noting TCU destroyed Baylor, 45-10, in Fort Worth that season. The Bears finished 7-6.)

According to the final Sagarin ratings from that season, TCU's strength of schedule was 76th.Hindsight says the Horned Frogs' best wins were Wisconsin (duh?), San Diego State and Utah.

According to the Sagarin ratings their strength of schedule ranks 85th. Of the teams ranked in the Top 10 by Sagarin, Baylor's schedule is the easiest - the closest is Ohio State (72nd).

Baylor still has three games remaining, but Saturday is it - if the Bears are going to lose in the regular season, it will be at No. 11 Oklahoma State. The Bears will defeat TCU in Fort Worth on Nov. 30, and against Texas on Dec. 7 in the Floyd-Casey Stadium finale (thank God).

Much like TCU in 2010, Baylor in 2013 is good, and benefeting from a schedule that works in its favor.

11/05/2013

Way before there was RGIII and Bryce Petty or Kevin Kolb there was a guy like Kelan Luker.

Luker was one of Art Briles' quarterbacks at Stephenville High School in the '90s. He scored points and threw the ball all over the map much in the same way RGIII, and now Petty, do at Baylor. Outside of Texas, you likely had never heard of Art Briles or Kelan Luker.

For the past few years the college football world has been enamored with the success Briles has enjoyed at Baylor, but he was doing the thing in Texas high schools for more than a decade.

Beyond that of schemes Luker has an idea why so many quarterbacks have been so successful playing for Briles.

"He allowed you to be a part of that creativity," Luker said in a phone interview. "He makes it really fun. He gave you a lot of responsibility, and not to be afraid. Coaches normally like control, and that was the big thing - Art was not about control. He wants things to be fast and entertaining. He likes to entertain fans."

Back in the '90s, what jumped out about Luker was not that he could play but the amount of trust his high school coach put on his head and right arm. This was not a typical high school offense that ran it on first and second down and then threw it if they had to. Briles designed a sophisticated passing offense for high school that required a tremendous amount of practice, and trust, on 16 to 18-year olds to both create and find space.

Luker is 32 and a high school quarterbacks coach in Florida. He watches Baylor as much as he can, and said he spoke with Art Briles this week.

"I watch them and it's the same offense. I think we had more formations back then," Luker said.

For the guys who played for Briles at high school or college, they all racked up massive numbers. It's the same thing as the QBs at Texas Tech when then coach Mike Leach had his best teams. And it always begs the question, is it the quarterback, or the system?

"It's the system because it is so unconventional," Luker said. "He will put you in a position to be successful. You have to give the quarterbacks credit but he is the guy behind it, including me. I don't know the word to use but he was an integral part in my success. He just does the same thing over and over and over with different guys. It's self evident."

Of these games, the one that looks the most similar for No. 20 TCU's game on Saturday against No. 12 LSU is the 2005 game at Oklahoma.

This TCU team is much bigger, better and more athletic than that group that upset the Sooners in Norman, but there should be one big similarity between these two games: Do not be surprised if TCU dares LSU and its quarterback, Zach Mettenberger to beat them.

Against the Sooners, TCU stacked the line of scrimmage in an effort to stop running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson was held to 63 yards on 22 carries, and the Sooners rushed 36 times for 97 yards.

If OU quarterback Paul Thompson had been able to complete anything, the outcome likely would have been different. Instead, he was 11 of 26 for 109 yards and one interception. Backup Rhett Bomar was 2 of 5 for 19 yards.

Teams have tried forever to beat LSU using this method, and it's a reason why so many of the Tigers' games are close. The Frogs have the secondary to execute this plan.

Mettenberger, who is a senior, has started 13 games in his career. He's completed 58.8 percent of his passes with 12 TDs and 7 Ints. He's better than Paul Thompson. The game will change if Zach forces TCU's defense to respect the accuracy of his arm.