Email

BANNERS are up and political leaders are out at the hustings. It is now the season of rallies and shifting alliances as the countdown to the 2018 general elections has begun amidst deepening uncertainties. Given such an intensely polarised political atmosphere, the run-up to the polls has never been trickier.

There are still many hurdles to cross on the way to what is believed to be the most critical vote that would determine the future course of politics in this country. The outcome is never easy to predict given the volatility of our political landscape; it is much more complicated now with other factors influencing the process.

Principles and ideology have never been virtues in Pakistan’s electoral politics. This is clearly evident, with so-called electables ready to ditch their parties for better prospects. At the other end, political parties are only too eager to embrace the turncoats. Not surprisingly, the exodus is mostly taking place from the ranks of the ruling PML-N which seems to have come under greater pressure following the life ban on Nawaz Sharif’s holding public office.

Another top PML-N leader bit the dust as the Islamabad High Court last week unseated foreign minister Khawaja Asif for perjury and hiding his employment and assets abroad. Predictably, the ruling has added to the controversy about the use of constitutional Articles 62 and 63 to disqualify political leaders. Although the charges against the former foreign minister seem much more substantive, the ban is being depicted by party supporters as yet another example of victimisation and selective judicial action.

Previously a movement for change that inspired voters, the PTI seems to have lost momentum.

Meanwhile, the former prime minister faces possible conviction by an accountability court on a litany of corruption charges. While Nawaz Sharif appears determined to fight back, it is not clear how many senior party leaders and lawmakers would stand by him when it comes to the crunch. Given the perception that the security establishment would not let Sharif back in saddle and that there are no signs of the judiciary relenting, the cracks in the party have widened. The desertion of some half a dozen PML-N lawmakers mainly from south Punjab is seen by many as just the beginning of the opening of the floodgates.

It is evident that the PML-N would go into the election campaign playing the victim card and on the slogan of ‘giving respect to the vote’. However phony this mantra may sound, it has helped Sharif maintain his mass popular support base in Punjab. But it may not be enough for the party to sweep the polls as the noose tightens around it. The disqualification of Khawaja Asif has dealt a serious political blow to the PML-N and intensified the demoralisation within its ranks.

There are conflicting views on the political fallout of the expected conviction of the former prime minister and members of his family on the eve of the elections. While some believe that it could reinforce a sympathy wave for Sharif, others think it could deepen the cracks within the party. Whatever the situation, it will cast a long shadow on the entire election process, adding to the prevailing uncertainty.

It is evident that Punjab will be the main electoral battleground where the PML-N is being challenged by the PTI. Given its formidable mass base and capacity to challenge the incumbent, it is not surprising that most defectors seek to jump on Imran Khan’s bandwagon. The perception of tacit support by the establishment makes the party more attractive to the electables and opportunists. The virtual annihilation of the PPP in Punjab has also given a boost to the PTI.

Last week, the PTI launched its election campaign with an impressive show of strength in Lahore, the citadel of Sharif’s political power. Imran Khan has also announced an 11-point charter of reform that his party pledges to undertake if it comes to power. Interestingly, the new slogan of ‘one Pakistan’ has replaced the old one of ‘naya Pakistan’.

It is uncertain whether this rather ambiguous slogan could become a rallying point for the electorate. The change of slogan also signifies the changing complexion of the party. Previously a movement for change that inspired voters — particularly the youth — in 2013, the PTI seems to have lost momentum with the mass induction of defectors from other parties, many of them with dubious records.

This transformation has affected the PTI’s image as a party of change. Nevertheless, with a large number of so-called electables in its ranks, the party leadership appears confident it has a better chance of winning the elections. It is a bargain Imran Khan perhaps struck to reach the highest pedestal of power.

One can also argue that the PTI has never been an ideological party and had no clear plan to take the country forward on the path of progress. But even for a reform agenda, it needs some principled people around. The party’s 11-point charter indicates a greater emphasis on the development of human infrastructure such as education, health and environment in sharp contrast to the PML-N’s obsession with motorways and other grand infrastructural projects.

However positive the charter may appear, the real challenge arises when it is time to deliver on the promises. Notwithstanding all good intentions, there is a need for capacity to implement the reform agenda. The experience of the PTI’s five-year rule in KP has not been exemplary except for police reform and some improvement in the education and health sectors.

Of course, the PPP is not out of the contest despite its minimal presence in Punjab. Its power base in Sindh has remained unchallenged. In the event of a hung parliament, it can emerge as a power broker. Unlike the two other parties, the PPP does not seem to have any new election message. It still seeks to appeal to the voters on the Bhutto legacy; that will surely not work in any other province. The weakening of the PPP has left a huge gap in national politics that is hard to fill. So it’s back to the hustings despite the political
uncertainty gripping the country.

Read more

On DawnNews

Comments (19) Closed

F Khan

May 02, 2018 06:36am

First they said after the panama-gate that the party will break, nothing happened.Then after banning NS from politics they said family will break,nothing happened.Now they are are saying that defections will start after NS is convicted by NAB.I have a question they hanged ZAB has PPP evaporated.They banned AH has MQM degenerated.Nothing will happen Punjab will vote PMLN at the next ballot.Just wait and see.

Recommend0

Ahmad Gul Kainth

May 02, 2018 09:09am

Good one sir

Recommend0

Syed Ahmed

May 02, 2018 09:31am

"the PTI seems to have lost momentum" - Really?

Recommend0

Mehreen

May 02, 2018 09:45am

People love criticizing PTI however there are a couple of things to note:

This party hasn't been tried and the other two main parties have been tried numerous times and have shown nothing but greed and avarice.

PTI has attempted police reform and none of the other parties want to even dream of doing this.

Important steps have been taken in the health sector

Important initiatives have been made in the education sector

An excellent start has been made to improve the environment in KPK through planting trees.

Imran Khan is a clean person who hasn't stolen the country's wealth

Imran Khan has given this country three cancer hospitals and has helped set up Namal University - how many party heads from the other parties have done this.

Lets not criticize for the sake of criticizing.

Recommend0

Alba

May 02, 2018 10:09am

The weakening of the Pakistan Peoples Party has left a huge gap in Pakistan's international diplomacy that is hard to fill.

Recommend0

mazhar memon

May 02, 2018 10:51am

There has been rumors or expectation that PML N winning candidates will leave party by droves ,it has not happened yet. Does writer think that some of the reasons are following:
Establishment is not fully behind PTI and thus no exodus from PML N
Perception that PTI is not going to give free hand to winning candidate to manage public funds as is the routine now.
Expelling 20 candidates solidified the perception that there will be zero tolerance for corruption or perception of the same or for political balancing act PTI will sacrifice them.

Recommend0

Manik Chand

May 02, 2018 11:20am

Very balanced article. I love reading you Zahid. tks!

Recommend0

Feroz

May 02, 2018 11:41am

The election like any other in the past will not bring any change because the loyalty of those elected is to pelf and perks and not any political party. A preview of what is coming was seen from the machinations in Baluchistan as well as how the outcome in the Senate elections was arranged. The pawns on the chessboard will be easily rearranged to maintain the power structure and status quo. Those dreaming of some exciting developments should know from experience that the sanctity of the vote has counted for nothing in Pakistan.

Recommend0

Nawaz

May 02, 2018 11:45am

Excellent and an objective analysis as always.

Recommend0

AW

May 02, 2018 12:00pm

In the current farce of democracy, the only practical option is to give PTI a chance. The others have been tried and tested several times without success but

Recommend0

BAXAR

May 02, 2018 12:30pm

@AW "In the current farce of democracy, the only practical option is to give PTI a chance." Do they have any concrete plan? How will they make state institutions work? What is their policy regarding foreign affairs, education, health etc? They haven't said anything new. It is the same mantra: "give us a chance and you'll see". They have to come up with some revolutionary steps, but they are too shy to change the system.

Recommend0

F Khan

May 02, 2018 05:40pm

@Mehreen:How do you justify Bani Gala lifestyle with AED 75k tax?

Recommend0

fb

May 02, 2018 06:32pm

@Feroz - That's a fair analysis I suppose.

Recommend0

Imran Ahmed

May 02, 2018 08:16pm

All that we have seen of PTI is unprincipled opportunism, bad language, sidelining of its loyal but honest leaders and nauseatingly predictable U-turns. It will be the second last choice at least for my vote in Lahore.

Recommend0

THE MORNING STAR

May 02, 2018 09:28pm

Imran's Lahore rally was pretty impressive.
Lets not forget last time fell from a height of 14 feet and was hospitalised 5 days before the elections.

Recommend0

Kalim

May 02, 2018 11:51pm

If imran khan party sweeps election, establishment will find him as toughest guy on this earth to handle and manipulate .. remember my words

Recommend0

waqas

May 03, 2018 03:06am

@BAXAR PMln has been tried . so they let give them another to plunder and create

Recommend0

Tahir Naeem Alyana

May 03, 2018 07:14am

@Mehreen excellent

Recommend0

Jawad

May 03, 2018 08:17am

@F Khan by the Way. PPP lost its strength after BB. And not to forget the 2 factions of MQM ( bahadrabaad and Farooq Sattar ) and definitely the Good Cops out of MqM ( PSP)
PML N has been affected and will be affected if not in Punjab but overall.