France's Muslim Demographic Future

France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.

These figures do not take into consideration the Muslim population that immigrated to France from North Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. There are a few million of them -- nobody knows how many exactly. For demographers, their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants anymore. These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French citizens born of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics radar.

From time to time, France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) offers a glimpse of the ethnic composition of French society. The study, "Being born in France to an immigrant parent" (Être né en France d'un parent immigré), published in February 2017, is one of them.

Like few other glimpses, the Insee study offers a partial view of the ethnic composition of the French population. A statistical breakdown -- with the answer to the perennial question: how many Muslims in France? -- would be perceived as discriminatory and outrageous. Given France's "integration model," nobody should dare identify people by their origins, religion, color of skin and so on. A Frenchman is a Frenchman, whatever the color of his skin or his religion, and any measurement of the sub-Saharan population -- for example, their level of education, that of their children, the type of jobs their parents are doing, how many times they go to mosque or if they have spent time in prison -- is illegal, discriminatory and racist. Sub-Saharan populations must disappear in aggregate data about French people.

The study, however, provides some telling information. In 2015, 7.3 million people born in France had at least one immigrant parent (11% of the population). Of these 7.3 million people, 45% are of European origin, most of whom are children of immigrants who arrived in France from Spain (8%) or Italy (12%) as early as the 1930s, or from Portugal in the 1970s onwards. One can assume, although it is not written in the study, that these people are of Christian origin.

Another group is composed of Africans. 42% of the 7.3 million children born in France to an immigrant parent are of African background, mainly North Africa. They came from Algeria (15%), Morocco (11%), Tunisia (5%) and sub-Saharan Africa (11%). Although it is also not specified in the study, it would seem that the great majority are Muslim.

Another group, children from Turkish migrant families, represent 4% of the 7.3 million. These people are classified as Asian; they are not included in the African and Muslim group. Most of these Turks are also presumably Muslim.

A conclusion therefore would assume that 46% of the descendants of immigrants are Muslim and 45% are Christian. The remaining 9% are from East Asia or the Americas.

A new study from France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, "Being born in France to an immigrant parent," provides some telling information on the ethnic composition of French society.

Criticizing the limited data of this study, Michèle Tribalat, a French demographer, published some personal conclusions in Atlántico, a news website. First, Tribalat expressed her regrets "not to have the population figures of persons of foreign origin for two generations". But, she said, it is not so difficult to compile it one's self.

"If we add the two generations (immigrants and children of immigrants), this gives a total of 13.5 million, or 20.4% of the population. Thus, we have slightly more than one inhabitant out of five of foreign origin, across two generations, in 2015".

Asked by Gatestone how she came to the 13.5 million figure, she replied:

"Very simple. I added the 2015 migrant population (6.2 million) to the Insee's 7.3 million children of immigrants, and it came to 13.5 million."

In her Atlántico article, Tribalat maintains that more important than the 2015 data picture, is the growth-rate that led to the 2015 figure. Tribalat calculated her own estimates of this growth, with starting points in the years 1986, 1999 and 2011, coming up with figures of a stunningly fast growth for the number of migrants over two generations: the 13.2 million migrants of 2015 (20.5%; 300,000 that are "missing" are from French overseas territories), were 12.1 million four years earlier and 9.8 million in 1999. In other words, 19.2% in 2011 and 16.8% in 1999. The population of French persons of foreign origin would therefore have increased, when looking at two generations, by 9% between 2011 and 2015 alone.

For the same period, French children born in France to parents born in France increased by only 2.6%, writes Tribalat.

Consequently, France's population is increasing significantly only because of immigration. But which immigration? Christian or Muslim? Tribalat continues:

"I showed that the annual average rate of increase of immigrants was almost zero between 1975 and 1999. But it is not the same story from 1999-2015. ... The population of sub-Saharan origin is the one that grows more quickly. In four years (2011-2015), looking at two-generations (immigrants and children of immigrants), the sub-Saharan population seems to have increased by 43%. This population is extremely young. In 2015, 80% of the children of sub-Saharan immigrants are under 25 years of age". (Author's emphasis)

"The Turkish and sub-Saharan African population is growing at an extremely rapid rate (which could lead to a doubling in less than 10 years if this continues).... The total fertility rate of women born in Turkey is approximately 3, as it is for women born in sub-Saharan Africa. It is closer to 3.5 for women born in North Africa, while it is only 2 for women born in Europe, especially in France."

In other words, if the Muslim population of France can be estimated at around 6 million today, it could grow to 12 million by 2020-2025.

This figure does even not take into consideration the Muslim population that immigrated to France from North Africa in the 1960s and early 1970s. There are a few million of them -- nobody knows how many exactly. They became French very early, and for demographers, their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are not regarded as immigrants anymore. These Muslims are, rather, integrated into statistics as French citizens born of French parents. They are Muslim, but under the statistics radar.

France's Muslim population could quickly grow to close to 15-17 million, but no one can know precisely unless the law prohibiting the official collection of ethnic data is changed.

These questions are not spoken about openly in the fierce pre-election presidential debate raging in France. The question is not politically correct. But in these times of expanding Islamism, they weigh silently in favor of Marine Le Pen.

Yves Mamou is a journalist and author based in France. He worked for two decades for the daily, Le Monde, before his retirement.

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15 Reader Comments

Peter D Gardner • Feb 20, 2017 at 20:42

Much anti-discriminatory law derives from conflict between the Christian churches and the state and between branches of Christianity. The intention was to unify the people within a state in order to strengthen the nation, even if one side gained an advantage over the other in the process and nobody had in mind that one of the religions in question would antithetical to the whole concept of democratic secular nation state. Then we had racial and gender discrimination etc, continuing on broadly similar reasoning. After the Siege of Vienna Islam was no longer seen as an immediate threat and by the 1900s was not seen as a threat at all.

The situation now is completely different and these laws are not only inadequate but positively harmful. If the eventual impact of Islam on Western civilisation is truly to reduce it to the level of what we can observe in Islamic countries around the world there is great cause for genuine alarm. There is also the growing realisation that it is almost too late to prevent it without considerable cost in terms of social unrest, political upheaval and danger to life and limb. Our political leaders fear to do what is necessary in the hope the impacts will not be too apparent until after their time in power and therefore resort to denial.

But governments' collective failure to respond effectively will cause increasing resentment and, unless the inappropriately designated right wing parties do not exert sufficient influence to achieve adequate corrective action, people concerned for the future of their civilisation will increasingly take the law into their own hands. The argument will be, well if the authorities turn a blind eye or even facilitate Sharia courts and practices, and do nothing to prevent Sharia enforcement patrols by vigilantes in the streets, then we can do the same. There is even a defence in law in some countries of acting in the public interest.

The situation is unprecedented and heretofore unacceptable changes to the law must now be made and enforced to protect Western civilisation. Crimes such as sedition must be reintroduced.

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Allan Radman • Feb 20, 2017 at 19:37

In the next several generations Europe will be essentially "Jew-free", realizing Hilter's dream society but all achieved by the liberals and the EU socialist elitists who will then pretend it didn't happen.

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Hollande and Merkel • Feb 20, 2017 at 18:03

We are constantly alarmed by the violent attacks by "extremist" Muslims, you know, those ones who looked "moderate" but you can't tell the difference.
What we are not alarmed by is what I term "The Cold Wet Blanket." I am referring to the encroachment of Islam into the West. Right now, that blanket is settling overall of Europe and Scandinavia. It does not necessarily bring violence but it bring a complete way of life that virtually nothing in common with Western values. In a relatively short time, all women in Europe will be required to wear the veil, and Sharia will be implemented in its various forms.

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jeb • Feb 20, 2017 at 15:14

The question may be unqualified but how do you tell if Muslims are assimilating in the west?Antisemitism is rising is that not proof they are not assimilating and encouraging neo-nazis and other racists?Without a census that asks the question? When Muslims in so many other ways try to distinguish themselves as Muslims seems disingenuous.
The increasing sense that even noticing Islamist resistance to assimilation and by that I mean participants in pluralism, that is not undertaken as a means to impose sharia and discard civil law.
Citizenship is supposed to distinguish the fact in western societies that your religious faith is tolerant of others, tolerant of criticism and tolerant of ridicule.
Is there any reason I should believe Muslim immigrants are adapting to the western point of view they revile in the countries they arrive from?

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Mike • Feb 20, 2017 at 14:05

The situation is more concerning than you think it is, because most of this population is concentrated among the younger age groups.

If France doesn't succeed in properly integrating these populations, which they apparently are not doing well, they will quickly have a Middle Eastern style situation.

If I were the French, I would try a multi-pronged approach:

(a) Integrate as many as are willing.

(b) Try to deport/expel/convince to leave those not willing to integrate.

(d) Encourage natality among the native populations, by all means appropriate.

(e) Discourage natality among problematic populations.

(d)+(e) could mean things like cutting family allowances to those with rioting convictions, etc.

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Joy D Larson • Feb 20, 2017 at 13:12

The Middle Age conquest of Europe continues, different weapons, the fertility of Muslim women. But this time the Pope won't defend the Church, Christians murdered by Islam or Europe and calls it a religion of peace???? Will there will be no Crusade to save Europe? Pray for the conversion of the Pope, he is not Christian, and the opening of the eyes of the politicians who serve the agenda of a one world government. We are on the path to the destruction of Western civilization.

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Russ Davis • Feb 20, 2017 at 12:52

The scarlet letter that none dare mention? It's A: abortion. Suicidal lefty Frenchies antiChrists abort their kids on the altar of their false god of ego & prosperity Molech (Leviticus 20). Muslims keep their kids. Do the math. When you keep killing your kids and your neighbors keep theirs, they'll eventually take over. But none dare mention the abortion antiChrist. Read C.S. Lewis's The Abolition of Man and his fiction version of it, The Space Trilogy for what the terrible demise the blind, gullible, godless west faces, the usual terrible price for those who turn their backs on the one true God who gave them life.

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Bob Horacek • Feb 20, 2017 at 11:58

Ever read "America Alone" by Mark Steyn? He pretty much predicted this dynamic over a decade ago. Nobody listened.

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Harvey • Feb 20, 2017 at 11:04

The infiltration into French society by Muslims has been going on for decades, it's not PC to talk about it. The fact large amounts of Jews have been leaving France speaks louder than statistics.

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Nouhad Ajaltouni • Feb 20, 2017 at 09:57

According to your article and if you consider that only 10 percent are " Radicalized Muslims " you will come to the result that 2 Million are radicalized Muslims.The whole military entity in France is approximately less than 10 per cent of this figure !In terms of Infantry it means that French Military is by far outnumbered by " Radicalized Muslims "Ce qu'il fallait demontrer .

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Le Hunt • Feb 20, 2017 at 09:38

I can remember when France started bringing in Turks to work for less than they would have to pay their native population. This was way back in the 1970s when I became aware of it. Now there is a heavy dose of political correctness thrown in: I've always said, if you really want to destroy something, the left and right have to 'collaborate' in some way, and France proves my point.

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allan enkin • Feb 20, 2017 at 09:11

France is beyond retaining its culture, identity, western values and social cohesion, much like the rest of Europe. Political correctness with its underlying rationalization that all people are the same and and want the same things has created a society that is self hating and destructive to its identity. I fear France and the rest of Europe have all swallowed hallucinogens and by the time the trip is over they will find themselves in quite a different world.

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Juanita Skelton • Feb 20, 2017 at 07:42

This topic is very hard to decipher when you look at where the demographers get their numbers. Then you have to assume that their source is a valid solid one. Sometimes it seems arbitrary. If one demographer chooses a certain starting point for their base numbers, then chooses some other source to add on to that base, simply due to applicable dates, we certainly have startling NUMBERS but I didn't see any statistics about death-rates in those groups by either geography or economic realities.

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Sarah • Feb 20, 2017 at 06:01

So at this stage, should an accurate census be taken that looks for information on these factors that the French currently deny record, unlike other Western nation's - I would imagine that the resulting shock within France would be palpable.

Its almost like knowing you have a mass in your abdomen but refusing to see a Doctor or have any scans etc. You know its there, deep down you have a bad gut feeling about it, but you hope that ignorance will prove to not only be bliss, but to maintain the status quo.

France is in for a series of highly unpleasant rude shocks, I would think. I would also think that being informed on such basic notion's as the demographic makeup of their society, would not only be sensible, would not only prevent any shocks in the future from being too intense but would also assist (most importantly) with the future planning of France as a nation.

By all means, if France decided, post census, to continue on the same path with migration and multiculturism, that is their right. But for God's sake, at least be informed and aware of the facts! The very idea of a first world, developed nation not knowing what its racial makeup consists of, baffles me. This is not divisive in any way. If anything, it would help with lessening any division because of better abilities to plan in ways that would benefit each section of their society!

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Jeff Page • Feb 20, 2017 at 05:58

How stupid! Any Muslim born and bred in France is a Muslim. Many of them don't consider themselves French unless it is to claim benefits and make attempts to get their relatives admitted to the country.And what's all this rubbish about it being discriminatory is hogwash. A census is a census. Numbers should be known they are needed for future planning.No doubt those putting forward excuses are Muslims or lefty traitors!Like this article states, Marine Le Pen is the only politician making this public, all the others want to hide the true facts from the people. It's something that is happening in most European countries. The British government are good at hiding the truth too, as is the once famous but discredited media, BBC being the main culprit!

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