Over at The Spectator David Blackburn writes: "The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate."

Really?

Let's just take a look at the numbers...

Debbie Abrahams for Labour won 14,718 votes.

Elwyn Watkins for the Liberal Democrats won 11,160 and Conservative Kashif Ali won 4,481 making a total of 15,641.

On the face of it that would translate into a Coalition majority of 923.

But would every Tory voter and every Lib Dem voter support a Coalition candidate?

For David Blackburn's statement to be true you'd need 94% of Tory and LibDem voters to support the Coalition candidate and none of the other 6% to support the Labour candidate. I just don't think that would happen.

Last week an Angus Reid poll found that only 83% of Tory voters would support a Coalition candidate and the number of LibDem voters who would do the same would be even lower.

I've heaped praise on Mark Pritchard for opposing Coalition candidates but he has shot his own argument in the foot in the last 24 hours by backing such candidates in by-elections. We need the Conservative Party to fight every seat in every part of the country. Coalition candidates in by-elections would offend many of our core supporters.

The polls closed at 10pm in Oldham East and Saddleworth and with the result expected around 1.30am I will try and pull together the rumours that are doing the rounds about the result.

As of 11.45pm:

Turnout is said to be between 40% and 45%.

Labour insider John McTernan is predicting a victory for his candidate by 5,000.

Tory campaign manager Andrew Stephenson is quoted by The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow as saying: "Things have not gone as we would have hoped... Whoever starts in third place is going to get squeezed... It appears that our vote has been squeezed quite strongly, particularly by the Lib Dems."

1.05am On the BBC, Andrew Stephenson says nine Cabinet ministers visited during the campaign and that there were 300 Tory activists in the seat last Saturday. He says that the Tory position has slipped from the general election but insists the Tories have held a "reasonable third place".

1.12am Debbie Abrahams, Labour candidate and now certain to be the newest MP in the Commons, has arrived at the count. She is greeted with a bouquet of flowers...

1.35am Conservative sources estimate the parties' votes "crudely" as Lab 14,000, Lib Dem 10,000 and Con 4,000, with UKIP in fourth place. They point to the fact that Labour have started third in four by-elections over the last 13 years while they were in government - Winchester, Romsey, Cheadle and Henley - and lost their deposits at all of those contests. The Conservatives tonight are "nowehere close" to losing the deposit like that.

Andrew Stephenson is MP for Pendle, a Conservative Party vice chairman and Campaign Manager for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election.

As we enter the last few days of the by-election campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth, it’s no surprise that Labour are resorting to dodgy claims and shaky statistics to hold on to the seat.

In contrast to Kashif Ali’s positive campaign, Labour are misleading voters about public spending and, more specifically, police budget cuts in this by-election.

The first piece of chicanery surrounds what they would do, if they were in government, to deal with their disastrous legacy of debt. Their candidate in Oldham, Debbie Abrahams, has said there is a ‘strong Labour alternative’ to our deficit reduction programme. But we all know, from Ed Miliband’s admission that Labour’s policies are a blank piece of paper, they haven’t provided a credible alternative at all. It’s simply wrong to say they have.

The next aspect of their misleading campaign lies in the statement found on much of their literature: ‘wrong cuts, wrong time’.

Following on from looking at the Conservative and Labour literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddleworth, below is a selection of that being pumped out by the Liberal Demcrats.

There are several common themes: the oh-so-familiar bar charts and very stongly worded attacks on the seat's former Labour MP Phil Woolas, whose disqualification has caused the by-election. One leaflet below states that "it's time to clean up politics and put an end to Labour's personal American-style negative campaigning" several lines below the statement "Labour and Phil Woolas have brought shame on the area".

There is, as with the other parties' campaigns, quite a bit about crime and policing: the Lib Dems make the point that the police are facing cutbacks due to Gordon Brown's Government spending money it didn't have.

Two polls tonight suggest Labour is heading for a thumping victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth.

An ICM survey of 504 voters in Oldham East and Saddleworth finds the Labour candidate is on 44% (up 12%) since the election and the Lib Dem candidate is on 27% (down 5%). The Tory vote has been squeezed - falling from 26% last May to 18% now.

A poll of 1,503 voters in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, undertaken by Lord Ashcroft - and published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph - suggests that Labour has the support of 46% of voters (up 14% since the General Election) and only 29% will vote Liberal Democrat (-3%). The Conservatives are in third place on 15% (down 11% on last May's result). Only 11% of those surveyed said that they would change their mind.

On the back of these two polls the Lib Dems will undoubtedly be distributing leaflets this week attempting to squeeze the Tory vote further but 17% looks too big a gap to close.

DETAIL FROM THE LORD ASHCROFT/ SUNDAY TELEGRAPH POLL

The biggest factor changing people's votes appears to be the tuition fees vote. 28% said the Lib Dem/ Coalition u-turn was the biggest single factor influencing their vote. The next biggest factor at 10% was "voting tactically/ a Conservative vote is a wasted vote". 5% said "didn't like Phil Woolas" was their primary reason.

After showing you some of the Conservaitve campaign literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddelworth, here's a look at what Labour have pumped out as their main election address.

In the form of an eight-page A5 booklet, much of it is devoted to fluffy personal details about the candidate, whilst the big political message is the "Save Our Police" campaign, opposing cuts to the police. I reproduce a second flyer on police cuts below the election address.

Most strikingly, there is no reference in the text of the address to Ed Miliband or any national Labour politician. There is just a small picture of the new Labour leader at the bottom of page 7.

As we enter the fnal weekend before the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, the Conservative campaign enters a new phase, with a new swathe of leaflets turning the fire onto Labour.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of them, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The new leaflets each feature one side contianing a positive list of Coalition Government achievements thus far:

But the reverse side features one of eight different attacks on Labour, as below:

As promised yesterday, below is a look at the kind of literature the Conservatives are distributing in Oldham East and Saddleworth. In all cases, please click to enlarge.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of it, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The first electoral address highlighted the main themes of Kashif Ali's positive campaign in terms of the local issues he is championing, as well as including a clean campaign pledge not dissimilar to that used to good effect in Norwich South in 2009:

Below are the pages from an In Touch leaflet being delievered across the constituency. It highlights the first class local credentials of the Conservative candidate; explains why the Spending Review was necessary; includes a piece by Baroness Newlove about the work she is doing to promote active, safer communities; and promotes positive things the "Conservative-led coalition" has already achieved.

David Cameron is today visiting Oldham East and Saddleworth to campaign for Conservative by-election candidate, Kashif Ali.

This will be the first time in nearly fifty years that a Conservative Prime Minister has gone out on the stump in such a contest: Macmillan returned to his old Stockton seat to support the Conservative candidate in a by-election there in 1962, whilst Douglas-Home did of course fight and win a by-election himself after disclaiming his peerage on his appointment as Prime Minister in 1963.

But Heath, Thatcher and Major all opted never to campaign in by-elections, with Wilson and Callaghan taking the same view.

Tony Blair campaigned in Uxbridge in the summer of 1997 - where Labour's Andy Slaughter was roundly defeated by John Randall - and his only other by-election outing as PM was again unsuccessful, in Eddisbury.

Gordon Brown went to two by-elections as Prime Minister - Glenrothes and Glasgow North East, both in his native Scotland.

Check back later for coverage of the Prime Minister's visit to Oldham.

6.15pm update:

David Cameron has now been to Oldham East and he said that the party was "fighting very hard for every vote" and that Kashif Ali would make "a very good Member of Parliament":

"This is actually about choosing a new Member of Parliament for Oldham and Saddleworth. That's the key thing and who's going to make the best candidate to replace the Labour MP who had a seat taken away from him because of the way he behaved during the election. It's about someone to stand up for this area in parliament. Our candidate is very strong and I think he'd do a very good job... I'm the first Prime Minister for years to campaign in an English by-election… There were lots of byelections in England and you didn't see Gordon Brown and you didn't see Tony Blair."

Earlier in the day he spoke at an event at which he answered journalists' questions about the by-election. His reply is 30 seconds into the clip.

I returned to London late last night from a 48-hour trip to Oldham East and Saddleworth, where I saw at first hand the Conservative by-election campaign in action and stuffed more envelopes, delivered more leaflets and hit more doorsteps than I cared to count in support of our candidate, Kashif Ali.

Readers will be aware that before Christmas I was not uncritical of the party's perceived sense of urgency (or lack thereof) about fighting the by-election; but be in no doubt, Kashif's team, expertly headed by Darren Mott from CCHQ and Andy Stephenson MP, are in no way giving the other candidates an easy ride - they are fighting for every vote and they deserve the help and support of all Conservative members.

This week has seen a steady stream of senior members of the Government visiting the seat, including Andrew Lansley, Oliver Letwin, Andrew Mitchell and Patrick McLoughlin, along with dozens of other MPs, many bringing activists from their patch with them. There will be many more there today and over the coming days.

Many of those who have not been able to get to Oldham in person have been doing telephone canvassing from wherever they are.

At the general election - with a very small local party membership and without target seat status and all its associated benefits - Kashif was less than 2,500 votes behind the victorious Labour MP. He was the only one of the candidates from the three main parties to increase his share of the vote.

So I hope that with a week to go, all Conservatives reading this will be moved to volunteer to help him, preferably by paying a visit to the seat, or alternatively by volunteering to do telephone canvassing from the comfort of wherever you are. It is especially important that a large number of people are there on the ground to help get out the vote on polling day, next Thursday.

To volunteer, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

Over the coming days I will be looking at some of the parties' campaign themes and reproducing some of the literature being distributed.

I have recently read disturbing reports suggesting that the Conservative Party has a lack of commitment towards winning the forthcoming by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth.

There has been a lot written, not only in the national newspapers, but also on this site, which has questioned our Party’s appetite to compete, even with speculation that some would prefer another party to be victorious or, at least, that they should not lose too badly.

I write this article as an entreaty to all members, supporters and activists of our great Party, a Party which has amply demonstrated that it has a formidable by-election winning team and strategy over the past few years. Do not let the murky waters of coalition politics or the ill-informed media obscure your vision of the prize which is within our grasp of winning in Oldham East and Saddleworth. I have spoken to CCHQ staffers who are giving up their Christmas holiday to run a full and effective campaign to win the seat. Our campaign has already delivered four leaflets and is now delivering the election address, but we need to do more.

We were just 2,400 votes behind Labour at the General Election last May which, if turnout is reduced, could now be far less in actuality. Without a concerted Conservative effort we are gifting this seat to the Socialists, something I personally find unpalatable.

I will be travelling up to Oldham today with a team of my campaign activists - these are the battle-hardened veterans who helped us to achieve a 12% swing from Labour in North West Leicestershire at the General Election.

We may not all be enamoured by compromises being made due to being in coalition Government but we are, I hope, all dedicated and committed Conservatives and our candidate, Kashif Ali, has the right to expect and demand our full support. I intend to give it to him and I hope you will too. For those who oppose any thought of coalition candidates at the next General Election I can assure you a poor Conservative result in this by-election makes this more, not less, likely.

There are already too many Labour MPs in Parliament given the damage the last Government inflicted across all areas of our society, let there not be another one. All that socialism gives us is an equal share of misery and all that is required for bad things to happen is for good men (and women) to do nothing.

Let's get more troops on the ground and fight to win Oldham East and Saddleworth for the Conservative Party.

Yesterday saw the official close of nominations for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, to be held on Thursday January 13th.

There are ten candidates standing, with the only surprise being that BNP leader and North West MEP, Nick Griffin, who had announced his intention to stand here, will not be on the ballot paper after all. Instead his party is putting up an ex-publican.

After the Crewe by-election I was given a briefing by one of the CCHQ hands who had masterminded the Tory triumph. The secret, I was told, was to win the first fortnight and define the campaign.

Bearing this in mind it is difficult to see the Tories doing well in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Paul Goodman was noting a lack of urgency six weeks ago. Last Friday Jonathan Isaby blogged the contrasts between previous mobilisation efforts and the low energy campaign in support of our candidate Kashif Ali. Yesterday, in The Sunday Telegraph, Melissa Kite reported that David Cameron had ordered the cancellation of a leaflet delivery by dozens of volunteers. She wrote:

"Mr Cameron is said to be “desperately worried” about the prospect of a poor Lib Dem showing which could dent Nick Clegg’s credibility and destabilise the Coalition. He fuelled speculation of an unofficial pact to give the Libs a clear run at Labour when he told my colleague James Kirkup that he “wished them well” in the contest on January 13. Now one senior Tory activist tells me: “Cameron told us explicitly and in no uncertain terms, do not go to Oldham. Even a thousand extra votes won by us could make it difficult for the Lib Dems. We were told to stay away.”

I rang and txted various members of the Cabinet yesterday and was able to establish the following:

William Hague - long-term overseer of the party's coperations in the north - will definitely be campaigning in 'Old and Sad'.

Eric Pickles will also be there. I haven't missed a by-election since 1974, he told me, and won't be missing this one.

Liam Fox is currently in the Gulf visiting troops for Christmas but he expects to visit.

Another definite is International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell.

What was clear from my ring round was that the Cabinet hadn't been asked to go. One Cabinet minister said that he would go if ordered but, so far, there hadn't even been any discussion of the campaign.

The Cabinet have, however, been asked to identify any and all ways in which they can help the Liberal Democrats. "Give them anything you can" had been the message from Number 10.

I spoke to a senior Tory official last night and explained what I had discovered. "A Lib Dem victory in Old and Sad would be the best thing that could happen to the Coalition", I was told. "Even a good showing would stabilise things. If the Lib Dems can pull off a good show when they are at 8% in the polls it would give Nick Clegg all he needs to reassure his party that dismal poll ratings don't mean much."

What did Old and Sad Tories make of this 'help-the-LibDems' strategy? My contact laughed. "Don't be surprised if a lot of bling is thrown in their direction in the months ahead. And don't bet against there being a Lord Ali of Oldham sometime in the next two years!"

He also discounted the bettiong on the by-election. "It's not as bad as most think for the Liberals. We wouldn't be helping them if we didn't think it was worth it."

1am update: David Cameron's remarks to The Daily Telegraph's James Kirkup don't exactly suggest a burning will to win. See here.

11am update: ConHome appears to have jolted CCHQ into some action. At 10.44am the Candidates Department sent an email to those on the Candidates List entitled "Can you help Kashif Ali and his team in Oldham East and Saddleworth?" and inviting them to assist the campaign as all MPs were yesterday...

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I really hope the answer to the question in the title above is yes - and I would be delighted to see any evidence seeking to prove me wrong. Please email me if you have any.

But I am detecting increasing concerns from various quarters that the party machine is not putting its all behind Kashif Ali's campaign to win the seat in which he was less than 2,500 votes behind the winning candidate in May.

Many of those I have spoken to fear that CCHQ has decided not to fight Oldham East and Saddleworth seriously in order to maximise the chances of the (second-placed) Lib Dems gaining the seat from Labour.

My evidence is twofold.

In previous by-elections - many of which saw the Conservatives beginning in a far less auspicious position - MPs were instructed that they were expected to make a certain number of trips to the constituency to campaign. Yet the email message sent out by the Government Chief Whip to his colleagues yesterday made no such demands:

"Kashif Ali is the Conservative candidate in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Kashif, who was the candidate in May's General Election, has made this election a genuine three horse race. There are just 2400 votes in it. Now he needs your help. His team are already working hard across the area, knocking on doors and delivering leaflets.

"Andy Stephenson, MP for Pendle is the campaign manager and wants to encourage colleagues to support the campaign. Please contact Andy for further information or the two campaign support coordinators..."

Even more shocking to me is the fact that those who were on the pre-election Candidates List have not heard a peep from CCHQ about the by-election. Again, in similar previous contests, those on the list - and selected candidates for that matter - were effectively told that unless they made three trips to the seat to campaign, their commitment to the cause would be questioned and their chances of remaining on the list and/or finding a seat would be diminished.

The lack of communication with those on the Candidates List about the campaign for the January 13th by-election is even more astounding given that between now and the end of March CCHQ is assessing all those very people on the pre-election list who want to remain on it.

The first criterion by which those applicants are being assessed is "energy and commitment", so I would have thought that the powers-that-be would be using the by-election as a prime opportunity to judge that, gaining an army of campaign volunteers in the process.

I would have suggested that CCHQ has consciously not told the Candidates List about the contest as some kind of elaborate initiative test, but for the fact that in recent days I have spoken to several ex-candidates who have tried to offer their campaigning services and not yet been taken up on their offers.

Anyhow, in the absence of any communication from CCHQ, ConHome hereby fulfils its public service duty by announcing that should you want to do your bit for Kashif Ali, you should call Caroline Dickinson on 01274 363000 or email her.

11am update: The writ has formally been moved in the Commons by Lib Dem whip Alistair Carmichael so it is game on for January 13th.

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At yesterday's PMQs, Labour MP Chris Ruane broadcast rumours that the Lib Dems intended moving the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election today.

This they are now definitely expected to do, which will mean a contest to elect a new MP for the seat taking place on Thursday January 13th.

By convention, the party which held the seat previously (in this case Labour) moves the writ, but senior government sources indicated yesterday that this is not a conventional by-election, since an election has not been declared void in this manner for 99 years.

Today's Independent suggests that the Lib Dems want the swift poll because "over 1,200 students studying at the Huddersfield University campus in Oldham will still be on holiday when by-election takes place".

It is certainly early in the year by historical standards.

By my reckoning it will be the first January by-election since 1986, when there were contests in 15 Northern Irish seats on the same day after the mass resignation of unionist MPs over the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

It will be the first January by-election in mainland Britain in since that in Hull North on January 27th 1966, which propelled Kevin MacNamara into the Commons.

And the last time a by-election was this early in the year was when the South Norfolk by-election of 1955 was also held on January 13th. The last recorded contest earlier than this in the year that I can find a reference to was the Skipton by-election of 1944, which took place on January 7th.

In the Commons yesterday Ruane talked about the writ being moved with "unseemly haste". Labour know more than a little about that: I will never forget Labour's offensive breach of convention in 2008 when they moved the writ for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral had even taken place.

Meanwhile, David Cameron confirmed to me last night that he will personally be going to Oldham to campaign for Kashif Ali, the Conservative candidate.

The Conservatives in Oldham East and Saddleworth have selected Kashif Ali to contest the by-election caused by the judicial ruling of the general election in the constituency to have been void.

Kashif is a local man born and bred, a barrister and former Deputy Chairman of the Manchester Conservative Federation. He also sits on the Board of a national charity providing housing and support services for adults with mental health problems and learning difficulties.

He fought the seat at the general election, when he increased the Conservative vote by 8.7% to put the party into a strong third place. The full result in May was:

“It is a great honour and extremely exciting to be the Conservative candidate for Oldham East and Saddleworth. It’s an honour because I was born and brought up here, I live in the constituency and feel strongly about doing everything I can to help improve the area for local residents.

“For the last three years I have been fighting for local people. I have been fighting to secure investment in local NHS services, to deliver a zero percent increase in Council tax, to deliver a cinema complex, to restore Oldham market to its former glory days, to bring common sense to the Council’s parking charges and enforcement regime, to cut Councillors allowances and to deal with anti-social behaviour which is so widespread in many communities.

“As we go into this by-election, being an Oldhamer born and bred, I promise if elected to be a committed, listening and accessible local MP who will make local economic regeneration and fighting crime his two top priorities.”

Elwyn Watkins will stand again for the Lib Dems, whilst Labour have selected Debbie Abrahams. BNP leader Nick Griffin has indicated that he will also be standing.

I now bring news that Emma Pidding is organising an Action Day in the constituency on behalf of the National Conservative Convention Officers for Wednesday 8th December.

She and the team of volunteers she is assembling wil be delivering a constituency-wide leaflet and would be delighted if ConHome readers are able to give a few hours of their time to assist. If you are able to volunteer, please email Emma who will let you have further details of when and where to meet.

She says:

"I fully appreciate that this is a big ask at this time of year, however, every extra few hours that each activist can put in really will make a difference. Thank you too to those volunteers that have already offered help to our Parliamentary Spokesmen, Kashif Ali and his team in this seat."

Judges declared void the result of the general election in Oldham East and Saddleworth, and the man who was elected as Labour MP, Phil Woolas, is awaiting the result of the judicial review he sought on the matter.

However, all the expectation is that the election will have to be re-run in a seat where the Conservatives were a very strong third behind the Liberal Democrats with 26.4% of the vote (Labour and the Lib Dems being on 31.9% and 31.6% respectively).

Whilst a Conservative candidate is not technically in place, Kashif Ali (pictured) - who fought the general election - has been readopted as parliamentary spokesman and it would seem unthinkable that he will not stand in the re-run election.

“Our campaign in Oldham is underway and we will be fighting for every vote. We have an excellent local campaigner and spokesman in Kashif Ali who has been working hard for the area for some time, and we look forward to the battle ahead. We’re building up our team in the area and we are already surveying local opinion. I look forward to pounding the streets of Oldham East and Saddleworth myself.”

Anyone wanting to help the Conservative campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth should visit the association office at 66 Chew Valley Road, Greenfield, Oldham, Lancashire OL3 7DB or email Caroline Dickinson or Dorothy Wonnacott.

The Guardian reports that the court "upheld the claim by Elwyn Watkins that Woolas knowingly made false statements":

Watkins claimed that in his election materials Woolas lied about his involvement with Muslim extremists, his campaign funding, and his intention to live in the constituency.

Watkins accused Woolas of stirring up religious divisions in his election campaign in a desperate attempt to secure the election, which Woolas did win, but only by 103 votes. In one leaflet, Woolas's campaign accused Watkins of "wooing" extremist Muslims.

The court saw in September confidential emails between Woolas's team, which included the line: "If we don't get the white folk angry he's [Woolas] gone."

1pm update:

It seems that Woolas intends appealing against the decision, so confusion remains as to whether or not he will immediately be disqualified from the Commons.

“This ruling exposes Ed Miliband’s terrible misjudgement. He was fully aware of Phil Woolas’s despicable and inflammatory campaign but still appointed him to a highly sensitive role on his front bench. After failing to act when Ken Livingstone directly contravened party rules, and dithering over whether to attend the TUC rally, Labour has another leader who’d rather duck a difficult decision than show real leadership.”

1.30pm update:

It would appear that the Speaker will have to make a call on Monday as to whether Woolas can remain in the Commons pending further legal machinations. Meanwhile, Ladbrokes make Labour 1/3 favourites to retain the seat at a by-election, with the Conservatives on 7/2 and the Lib Dems on 8/1.

News of two more recent selections from Greater Manchester, covering the two Oldham constituencies:

Oldham East and Saddleworth - Kashif Ali According to the local association website: "Kashif was born, brought up and he continues to live in Oldham East and Saddleworth in the Higginshaw area... He works locally as a Barrister, was a former law tutor at the University of Manchester, and also sits on the Board of a national charity providing housing and support services for adults with mental health problems and learning difficulties". He is a former Deputy Chairman of the Manchester Conservative Federation.

Labour's Phil Woolas has a notional majority in the seat of 4,245 over the Liberal Democrats, with the Conservatives starting in third place with 17.8% of the vote.

Oldham West and Royton - Kamran Ghafoor He is a former Labour councillor in Oldham (the youngest member of the council when elected in 2004) but narrowly failed to win a council seat as a Conservative in 2008. A graduate of Salford University, he is a businessman who owns several petrol stations and a number of properties. He says he is "just as proud to be British" as he is to be a Muslim and of his ambition to be the first Muslim MP for Oldham, he adds: "I see myself being a Member of Parliament representing Oldham, but not just representing the community here but representing Muslims worldwide in government."

Michael Meacher will defend a notional majority of 10,454 over the Lib Dems, although the Conservatives are less than 100 votes behind them in third place.