Nelson takes slight lead over Scott in new poll

A just released Mason-Dixon poll shows Senator Bill Nelson narrowly leading Governor Rick Scott in the U.S. Senate race, 47%-46%. Statistically speaking, Nelson and Scott are tied, but this survey signals a shift to the incumbent Democrat since Mason-Dixon last polled the race in July. Scott lead in then by three points.

Polls released last week showed Nelson with a larger lead, but the U.S. Supreme Court battle could have harmed Nelson’s standing in the Mason-Dixon poll.

“This poll was conducted during the week of the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, which may have sparked Republican voter interest and closed the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and the GOP, said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling. “It could explain why Nelson may have had larger leads in several other polls conducted prior to last week, while this one shows him still in a toss-up contest. At least for the moment, the Supreme Court battle is casting a shadow in Florida.”

The largest segment of Nelson’s support comes from women, black and Hispanic voters. Scott leads among men and white voters.

September 24 through September 27, 2018. A total of 815 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were “likely to vote” in the November general election. The margin of error is ± 3.5.