Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Election scorecard (so far)

Posted
on Wed, Aug 18, 2010 at 7:29 AM

click to enlarge

Spokane County released results for about half of the 72,000 ballots cast in the primary election last night, with another batch set to be counted and released by 6 pm tonight. (Just a reminder: Washington's weird top-two primary sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party affiliation, so don't be shocked to see two Dems or two Republicans duking it out in November.)

You can follow the county results here and the federal and state results here.

U.S. SENATE

Oh Sarah Palin, where are you now?
Tea Party fave Clint Didier cooled off quickly despite (or because
of?) the Palin shout-out and finished a distant third behind the
incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and – ta-da! - Republican Dino
Rossi, famous for falling just short in the bruising, late rounds of
the last two heavyweight governor’s bouts.

This race has even higher stakes – enough to bring President
Obama to Seattle on election day – with possible control of the
Senate on the line.

Expect plenty of sound and fury in a race that’s likely to be as
much a referendum on the policies of Presidents Bush and Obama
as anything else. (Kevin Taylor)

CONGRESS

Get your weather jokes ready — Romeyn's inWe know there are going to be a million of these witticisms in the
coming weeks so we’ll get ours out of the way this instant:
“Hey Daryl, what’s the long-term forecast for November 2?”
That the Fifth District congressional race has come down to
incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers and former KREM weathercaster Daryl Romeyn is one of the goofier, smile-inducing
surprises of Tuesday’s primary.

Romeyn predicted in last week’s Inlander that he would make the
top two, despite having no money and no political experience.
McMorris Rodgers is a rising figure in the Congressional GOP
leadership and has more money than Romeyn on the order of,
oh, one million dollars! But while McMorris Rodgers is part of
the GOP leadership strategy to retake Congress by obstructing or
filibustering Obama initiatives, Romeyn turns those votes against
her by calling them detrimental to ordinary people in the district.

Marr safe, but trailing
No surprise that incumbent State Senator Chris Marr (D) and his challenger, Michael Baumgartner (R) both made it through to the primary — they were the only ones on the ballot. What is a little surprising is that Marr is trailing at press time by almost three percent. Allegations of carpet-bagging have dogged Baumgartner, creating fractions within his party, but just being a Republican appears to give any candidate a several-points boost in this election.

The Marr-Baumgartner fight has been fairly nasty already — don't expect it to get any cleaner between now and November. (JS) Read more about this race ---

STATE REP

Republican fervor in the Third?
We’re not sure if voters in the Third Legislative District have
just had enough of the Dems or whether Republican Dave White’s pro-pot agenda brought some
young liberals to his side of the table. Whatever it was, the race’s only Republican is leading, with 30.37 percent of the vote, a hair past
Democratic nominee Andy Billig’s 29.46 percent. Social worker Louise Chadez and
no-nonsense Councilman Bob Apple don't appear to have made it through the race.

The Billig-White race will pit Billig’s business background,
name recognition and big money against White’s calls for smaller government and
lower taxes (except on marijuana, of course) for the November election. The 3rd
has been a Democratic stronghold in years past – and Billig’s war chest might
maintain that legacy – but with White’s apparent appeal, things could get
interesting downtown. (Heidi Groover) Read more about this race

STATE REP

Deja vu
John Driscoll against John Ahern. That matchup may sound familiar if you were alive during 2008, when a race between Ahern and Driscoll ended up so close (74 measly votes) their race resulted in an automatic hand recount.
It looks like we'll get a rematch, with Democrat Driscoll (41.5 percent) and Republican Ahern (33.1 percent) both topping Republican Shelly O'Quinn (25 percent).

Of course, this time, conditions are different. On one hand, Driscoll is the incumbent this time, not Ahern. Typically, being an incumbent is an advantage in a local race. But on the other hand, national commentators opine, conditions may not be as favorable for Democrats as they were in 2008, the year of Obama. Not a great time, they say, for incumbents either.
If the full percentage of Republican voters who voted for Shelly O'Quinn, voted for John Ahern, he'd win by 58.5 percent-- easily besting Driscoll. Of course, that's a big "if." O'Quinn is more moderate and middle-of-the-road than Driscoll. Theoretically, then, her voters could swing either way. (Daniel Walters) Read more about this race

COUNTY COMMISSIONER

Mager dominating, French fighting for second place
Though it's not entirely surprising to see incumbent County Commissioner Bonnie Mager (D) leading the race so far (with 47 percent of the vote), the fight between her Republican challengers seemed like it could be a toss-up. And it sort of is. Former Spokane City Councilman Al French leads the race for second place, with 17.87 percent of the vote, but former lawman Jeff Holy is nipping at his lead (with 15.7) and pro-business Steve Salvatori (15.14) isn't far behind.

Should be an interesting race if these results hold, though. Mager won her first term on the commission campaigning for smart growth; pro-development Al French would make three like (Republican) minds on the commission. (JS) Read more about this race

ASSESSOR

Boss vs. Employee in the generalIf things weren't
awkward enough inside the assessor's office, they're about to get
awkward-er. With about 52 percent of the ballot, it looks as if the two
assessor candidates moving on to the general race are incumbent Ralph
Baker (30.8 percent) and appraiser Vicki Horton (21.2 percent) — who
is currently one of Baker's employees.

Software engineer Andrew
Jackson (19 percent), backed by the whistleblower who exposed a large
swath of undocumented properties in the assessor's office, meanwhile,
is breathing heavily down Horton's neck, separated by only around 1,500
votes. The race could easily change when the final ballots total rolls
in.

If not, the question is how the remaining 49.7 percent who
voted for neither Horton or Baker will vote in the general election. Perhaps, now that their favored candidate has lost, either remaining
candidate has their vote. But if they were voting specifically against
Baker, Baker has a difficult campaign ahead of him. (Daniel Walters) Read more about this race

PROSECUTING ATTORNEY

Tucker stays alive (barely)People have been talking smack about three-term incumbent Steve
Tucker for years – how he plays golf more than he tries criminals,
that he messed up by not going for the death penalty on serial killer
Robert Yates – but Tuesday night may be the first time Tucker’s
felt a splash of cold water.

He’s still in the race to keep his job. But he’s not the first choice
among voters in the primary. That fell to the lone Democrat in the
crowded field, 67-year-old attorney Frank Malone, who leads Tucker by about 2,000 votes. Malone promises to personally try a case every 45 days or so and
be visible in court. Tucker’s two closest GOP challengers say they
hope this is a wake-up call. (Kevin Taylor) Read more about this race