Two things bear repeated mention: No team exists in a vacuum, and the tournament selection committee is going to take 37 at-large teams no matter what. There is value in knowing the strengths and weaknesses of borderline tournament teams, and that's what the daily Bubble Tracker is for.

Virginia: Record: 20-8, RPI: 67Plus: Beat Duke, won at Wisconsin; 7-2 vs. T100Minus: Six 100+losses, No. 297 NC SOSAt-large ranking: 33Next two games: at Boston College (March 3) | at Florida State (March 7)Analysis: The Cavaliers' complex profile received a boost Thursday after Joe Harris scored 36 points in victory over Duke in Charlottesville, but the job isn't finished yet. Borderline teams with Virginia's nonconference strength of schedule have not fared well with the selection committee in recent years, so there's still an onus to create some separation. One game doesn't fundamentally alter an unusual resume this late in the season, though Virginia undeniably helped itself with its latest triumph. (Feb. 28)

Maryland: Record: 19-9, RPI: 72Plus: Beat Duke and N.C. StateMinus: No. 298 NC SOS, 3-7 on road/neutral At-large ranking: 45Next two games: at Wake Forest (March 2) | North Carolina (March 6)Analysis: The pros (two top-25 wins) and cons (dreadful non-conference schedule mostly designed before coach Mark Turgeon added three pieces to his rotation) are obvious. There's no fixing that problem, and a pair of dubious road losses in February (Boston College and Georgia Tech) isn't helping any. Maryland's at-large chances are increasingly slim after Wednesday's loss at Georgia Tech, but still exist. The Terps have work to over their final three regular season games and in the ACC tournament (Feb. 27)

Atlantic 10

Secure: Butler

Safe For Now: Saint Louis (AQ), Virginia Commonwealth

Solid For Now: None

Borderline: Temple, La Salle, Massachusetts, Charlotte

Long shot: None

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Temple: Record: 20-8, RPI: 42Plus: Beat Syracuse and Saint Louis, 9-6 vs. T100Minus: Lost to Duquesne and St. Bonaventure at home At-large ranking: 30Next two games: Rhode Island (March 2) | at Fordham (March 6)Analysis: The Owls have won five of six, which has done plenty to lift them above a scrum of teams that seems to lose at least once on a weekly basis. Temple isn't comfortably inside the field, but Thursday's defeat of Detroit gives it another top-100 win and the Saint Louis triumph looks better by the day. Fran Dunphy's team is probably in preservation mode; avoid an unwise loss in the next two games, and the Owls probably return to the NCAA tournament (Feb. 28)

La Salle: La Salle: Record: 19-7, RPI: 38Plus: Beat Butler and VCU, 8-5 on the roadMinus: HTH vs Mass./Charlotte, Lost to Central Connecticut At-large ranking: 31Next two games: Duquesne (March 2) | George Washington (March 6)Analysis: John Giannini's Explorers have a real chance to secure their first NCAA bid since 1992 in the next few weeks. There's little truly questionable on their resume, and an early victory over Villanova looks better and better by the week. They key here is to avoid a needless misstep, particularly in the final two home games of the season. (Feb. 24)

Massachusetts: Record: 17-9, RPI: 57Plus: 6-4 on the road, won at La SalleMinus: Lost to George Washington, Six 200+ wins At-large ranking: 40Next two games: at Xavier (March 2) | Butler (March 7)Analysis: The Minutemen aren't in great shape after a three-game losing streak in the middle of the month, but they remain in the conversation after handling Dayton at home. The visit from Butler next week is a crucial opportunity, but it won't be easy for Derek Kellogg's bunch to win at Xavier on Saturday. Either way, the Minutemen will have some work to do in Brooklyn at the A-10 tournament. (Feb. 24)

Charlotte: Record: 18-9, RPI: 68Plus: Won at Butler, 7-5 road/neutral recordMinus: Lost to George Washington, No. 232 non-conference SOS At-large ranking: 43Next two games: at St. Bonaventure (March 2) | at Duquesne (March 6)Analysis: The 49ers are in trouble. Charlotte has dropped five of seven, dismissed leading scorer DeMario Mayfield from the team this month (he hadn't played since January), doesn't see an at-large contender the rest of the regular season and just lost at home to Dayton. That was a major miscue, and there just isn't a chance for Alan Major's bunch to recover from it until the conference tournament. There will be great pressure for a deep run in Brooklyn in mid-March. (Feb. 27)

Big East

Secure: Georgetown (AQ), Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh

Safe For Now: Notre Dame

Solid For Now: Cincinnati

Borderline: Villanova, St. John's

Long shot: None

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Villanova: Record: 18-11, RPI: 56Plus: Beat Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette, won at UConnMinus: Lost to Columbia, 6-9 vs. T100At-large ranking: 36Next two games: at Pittsburgh (March 3) | Georgetown (March 6)Analysis: Well, that didn't help. The Wildcats rigorous closing stretch featured one game against the soft underbelly of the Big East and rather than handling business they dropped a 66-65 decision to a Seton Hall bunch that hadn't won in more than a month. Villanova was going to enjoy some breathing room entering March, but much of it is gone. The Wildcats would be wise to get a split of their last two regular season games. (Feb. 25)

St. John's: Record: 16-11, RPI: 61Plus: Beat Connecticut and Notre Dame, No. 35 SOSMinus: Lost to San Francisco and UNC Asheville At-large ranking: 44Next two games: at Providence (March 2) | at Notre Dame (March 5)Analysis: The Red Storm have a few nice wins, but there are also some unexplainable missteps sprinkled in as well. As a result, St. John's needs a surge in the closing weeks to make a credible case for an at-large bid. Realistically, it could require four straight wins or a deep Big East tournament run to get the job done. (Feb. 24)

Iowa: Record: 18-10, RPI: 90Plus: Beat Wisconsin and MinnesotaMinus: No. 321 non-conference SOS, 4-7 vs. T100At-large ranking: 48Next two games: at Indiana (March 2) | Illinois (March 5)Analysis: The Hawkeyes rebounded from Saturday's loss at Nebraska with a victory at Purdue, and they can do far more good Saturday if they somehow beat Indiana and Bloomington. At this stage, though, Iowa will require an extended stay at the Big Ten tournament to avoid the NIT, and might need to win the thing outright even if they finish the regular season on a four-game winning streak. (Feb. 27)

Big 12

Secure: Kansas (AQ), Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Safe For Now: Oklahoma

Solid For Now: None

Borderline: Iowa State, Baylor

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Iowa State: Record: 19-9, RPI: 54Plus: Beat Oklahoma and Kansas State, swept BaylorMinus: 3-7 on the road, lost at Texas TechAt-large ranking: 34Next two games: at Oklahoma (March 2) | Oklahoma State (March 6)Analysis: The Cyclones gave it a nice run on Monday, and they would have knocked off Kansas if not for Elijah Johnson's ridiculous night. The 108-96 overtime loss represents a squandered chance for Iowa State to improve its profile much more than a serious blow to its NCAA hopes. The Cyclones will be in decent shape if they can knock off Oklahoma State in Ames next week and win one of their two remaining road games --- the latter not the easiest task for this bunch. (Feb. 25)

Baylor: Record: 17-11, RPI: 59Plus: Beat Oklahoma State, No. 38 strength of scheduleMinus: Lost to College of Charleston, 2-7 vs. T50At-large ranking: 42Next two games: Kansas State (March 2) | at Texas (March 4)Analysis: The Bears don't enjoy the strongest of resumes and have dropped six of their last nine, but did manage to handle West Virginia on the road on Wednesday. There's still another winnable road game, and both Kansas and Kansas State come to Waco before season's end. Baylor's victory at Kentucky could also be an asset if both teams are among the final teams on the board. (Feb. 27)

Missouri Valley

Secure: None

Safe For Now: None

Solid For Now: Wichita State (AQ), Creighton

Borderline: None

Mountain West

Secure: New Mexico (AQ)

Safe For Now: San Diego State, Colorado State

Solid For Now: UNLV

Borderline: Boise State

Long Shot: None

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Boise State: Record: 19-8, RPI: 47Plus: Beat UNLV, won at CreightonMinus: Lost to Nevada and UtahAt-large ranking: 37Next two games: Colorado State (March 2) | at UNLV (March 5)Analysis: Give the Broncos this much: They have more chances to improve their profile in the next three weeks as just about anyone. Boise State's hovered on the periphery of the field for much of the last month, and they finish with Colorado State, UNLV and San Diego State and a Mountain West quarterfinal date likely to be against one of those three. Drubbing struggling Nevada on Wednesday was a positive step for the Broncos, who might not face a chance for a dubious loss the rest of the way. (Feb. 27)

Pac-12

Secure: Arizona (AQ)

Safe For Now: Oregon

Solid For Now: UCLA, Colorado, California

Borderline: Arizona State, Stanford

Long Shot: None

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Arizona State: Record: 20-9, RPI: 88Plus: Swept Colorado, beat UCLAMinus: No. 303 non-conference SOS, lost to DePaul and UtahAt-large ranking: 46Next two games: at Southern California (March 2) | at Arizona (March 9)Analysis: The Sun Devils are the Maryland of the West --- a team that played a lousy nonconference schedule and simply can't get any traction whatsoever in league play. That continued with Wednesday's crushing overtime loss at UCLA, which was the sort of triumph Arizona State so direly needed. Instead, any at-large hopes for the Sun Devils are tied to a strong finish to the regular season and a couple wins (at minimum) in the Pac-12 tournament. In truth, Herb Sendek's bunch might have to run the table in Las Vegas to get in. (Feb. 28)

Stanford: Record: 16-13, RPI: 69Plus: Beat Oregon and California, No. 32 SOSMinus: 2-10 vs. T50, swept by Southern California At-large ranking: 50Next two games: Utah (March 3) | at California (March 6)Analysis: The Cardinal is 11-0 against teams outside the top 100, but Stanford's problem isn't whether it can avoid losses to sub-.500 riff-raff. Instead, there just isn't a lot of evidence it will play well against particularly good, especially outside of Palo Alto. The at-large hopes are probably gone at this point, though stranger things have happened. In all likelihood, the Cardinal is ticketed for the NIT. (Feb. 27)

Southeastern

Secure: Florida (AQ)

Safe For Now: Missouri

Solid For Now: None

Borderline: Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee

Long Shot: Arkansas

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Kentucky: Record: 20-8, RPI: 49Plus: Beat Missouri, No 100+ lossesMinus: 1-4 vs. T50, 12 wins vs. 150+At-large ranking: 35Next two games: at Arkansas (March 2) | at Georgia (March 7)Analysis: Oddly enough, it took three full games without Nerlens Noel for Kentucky to get a better victory than it managed in 24 games when he was available. That doesn't mean the Wildcats are better off without the freshman, but at least they proved they could beat a likely tournament team without him when they fended off Missouri on Saturday. After drilling Mississippi State, Kentucky faces a crucial two-game swing to Arkansas and Georgia to help solidify its postseason standing. (Feb. 27)

Alabama: Record: 19-9, RPI: 62Plus: Beat Kentucky, 7-5 vs. T100Minus: Three 100+ home losses, lost at Auburn At-large ranking: 38Next two games: at Florida (March 2) | at Mississippi (March 5)Analysis: Tuesday's home defeat of Auburn averted disaster. Alabama lost at least one too many games for its own good throughout its soft February schedule, but it still finds itself in the at-large picture. That would probably change without snagging at least one of the next two games, contests that have looked as if they will help define the Crimson Tide's season for more than a month. (Feb. 26).

Mississippi: Record: 21-7, RPI: 55Plus: Beat Missouri Minus: 1-4 vs. T50, lost at South CarolinaAt-large ranking: 39Next two games: at Mississippi State (March 2) | Alabama (March 5)Analysis: The Rebels have won back-to-back games, defeating Auburn and then Texas A&M to stabilize themselves after a mostly disastrous February. Still, this is a team with a modest resume, a poor nonconference schedule strength and a glaringly bad loss at South Carolina. At this point, all Ole Miss can do is roll up as many victories as it can and hope for the best --- which, at this point means hoping for other borderline teams to lose. For this week, at least, many have obliged. (Feb. 27)

Tennessee: Record: 17-10, RPI: 53Plus: Beat Florida, Wichita State, Kentucky, No. 24 SOSMinus: 2-7 road/neutral vs. T100, lost to GeorgiaAt-large ranking: 41Next two games: at Georgia (March 2) | at Auburn (March 6)Analysis: There's nothing sneaky about Tennessee's at-large possibilities anymore after Tuesday's 64-58 victory over Florida. The schedule turns favorable for the Volunteers, who get a pair of sub-.500 teams on the road before finishing the regular season at home against a Missouri bunch that is 1-7 on the road. Tennessee has won six straight and has done as much as anyone this side of California to improve its at-large profile in recent weeks. (Feb. 26)

Arkansas: Record: 17-11, RPI: 89Plus: Beat Florida, Oklahoma, MissouriMinus: 1-10 on the road/neutral, lost at South CarolinaAt-large ranking: 49Next two games: Kentucky (March 2) | at Missouri (March 5)Analysis: It's difficult to imagine Arkansas getting in without a Georgia 2008-esque run in the SEC tournament --- and even that seems a bit far-fetched since the Razorbacks would have to win three or four straight games outside of Fayetteville. Wednesday's loss at Louisiana State (which is doing fine work as an SEC spoiler) continued the Hogs' road woes. They'll stay on the Bubble Watch for now, but the lack of road success does not bode well, either for Arkansas' selection committee evaluation or the Razorbacks' chances of mustering a sustained push. (Feb. 27)

West Coast

Secure: Gonzaga (AQ)

Safe For Now: None

Solid For Now: None

Borderline: Saint Mary's

Long Shot: None

Team Resumes (W-L/RPI; Plus/Minus; AT-L Board; Next Game):

Saint Mary's: Record: 25-5, RPI: 44Plus: Beat Creighton, swept BYU, 9-2 on the roadMinus: 1-2 vs. T50, 17 wins vs. 150+/Non-Division IAt-large ranking: 32Next two games: Santa Clara (March 2) | WCC semifinals (March 9)Analysis: The Gaels ripped Pepperdine on Wednesday, which really doesn't do much for them but is still so much better than what everyone around them is doing. There isn't a lot to Saint Mary's profile beyond last weekend's defeat of Creighton, though it does boast a winning record against the top 100, and it can ill-afford a loss to anyone other than Gonzaga the rest of the way. Even a setback in the West Coast title game would leave the Gaels vulnerable right up to Selection Sunday. (Feb. 27)

Middle Tennessee: Record: 26-4, RPI: 25Plus: No. 10 non-conference SOS, beat MississippiMinus: 25 wins vs. 100+, lost to Arkansas State At-large ranking: AQ Next two games: at Western Kentucky (March 2) | Sun Belt quarterfinals (March 9)Analysis: The Blue Raiders could be quite the curious case if they're knocked out in the Sun Belt tournament, where they will be the No. 1 seed. Middle Tennessee played four games against the top 100, going 1-3, and that limited sample size could prove costly. Nonetheless, this is a team that goes deep with juniors and seniors and has earned 13 of its 18 conference victories by double figures and will be heavily favored in the league tourney. (Feb. 28)

Belmont: Record: 23-6, RPI: 24Plus: No. 2 non-conference SOS, 6-3 vs. T100Minus: 1-2 vs. T50, three 100+ losses At-large ranking: AQNext two games: Jacksonville State (March 2) | Ohio Valley semifinals (March 8)*Analysis: The Bruins will be a bear of a round of 64 opponent, no pun intended, but their path there is going to have to come through the Ohio Valley tournament. The stout nonconference schedule and impressive top-100 performance would help Belmont, but there's just a few too many losses (particularly against middle-of-the-road teams) to make an at-large invite a serious possibility. The Bruins clinched the No. 1 seed in the Ohio Valley tournament Wednesday with its blowout of SIU Edwardsville. (Feb. 27)

Southern Mississippi: Record: 21-7, RPI: 36Plus: 9-6 on the roadMinus: 0-4 vs. T50, 14 wins vs. 150+/non-Division IAt-large ranking: 47Next two games: East Carolina (March 2) | at Marshall (March 5)Analysis: The RPI is nice and so are the road victories (the latter significantly influencing the former), but a profile where the top three victories are Denver, East Carolina and Texas-El Paso just isn't going to get it done this season. The Golden Eagles don't have much of a chance to bolster their resume before the end of the regular season, and after a pair of double-digit losses to Memphis a run to the Conference USA title looks particularly daunting. (Feb. 24)

Louisiana Tech: Record: 25-3, RPI: 51Plus: 10-3 on the road, beat Southern MississippiMinus: No. 235 nonconference SOS, 20 wins vs. 150+/non-Division IAt-large ranking: AQNext two games: San Jose State (March 2) | at New Mexico State (March 7)Analysis: Meet this year's version of 2012 Drexel --- a team with a boatload of wins that would probably be an unpleasant draw in the round of 64 but almost has to win its conference tournament because of the absence of high-profile victories, a shaky nonconference schedule that does it no favors and an puzzling loss at McNeese State. The Bulldogs took a step toward a perfect WAC regular season with an 84-61 demolition of Utah State on Thursday. (Feb. 27)

Akron: Record: 23-4, RPI: 35Plus: 10-4 road/neutral, beat Middle TennesseeMinus: 1-2 vs. T50, lost at Coastal CarolinaAt-large ranking: AQNext two games: at Buffalo (March 2) | Miami-Ohio (March 5)Analysis: There's isn't a whole lot of oomph on the Zips' resume. Blame a good chunk of that of navigating league play in a conference with only three of its 12 schools boasting top-150 RPI figures. This isn't a team a No. 4 seed would want to be paired with in March (Wednesday's rally from an 18-point deficit against Ohio is a hint of the Zips' potency), but Akron might have to win the MAC tournament to earn a chance to play in the NCAA tournament. (Feb. 27)

Note: RPI data was used via CBSSports.com

About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' 2013 bracket specialist. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.

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