Favorite Schools

Favorite Teams

Syracuse football: Five statistics-based predictions for the N.C. State game

Hunt vs. Clemson 10-5-13

Syracuse quarterback Terrel Hunt struggled against Clemson but should find more success this week against N.C. State, which surrendered multiple touchdown passes to three of its last four opponents.
(Dick Blume | dblume@syracuse.com)

In its last four games, Syracuse has victories by 54 and 35 points and losses by 21 and 35 points. The one truly consistent thing about the Orange over the last month is it was easy to know what the result would be at halftime.

In its first two conference games, N.C. State played surprisingly well against Clemson and surprisingly poorly against Wake Forest. The Wolfpack lost both games, mixing glimmers of hope and moments of befuddlement into its first five contests.

It makes for a game Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium that isn’t easy to figure out in advance, which means a better chance of predictions going awry. Last week netted a 3-2 mark in the stats-oriented projections, bumping the season record to 15-10.

The following things did happen:

Clemson’s Tajh Boyd accounted for at least three touchdowns. He finished with five, and now has at least three scores in 13 of the Tigers’ last 15 games.

Syracuse had four sacks, surpassing the prediction of a minimum of three. The Orange’s pressure proved costly for much of the day as Clemson’s wide receivers enjoyed plenty of one-on-one matchups, but they did get to Boyd on occasion.

There was not a kickoff or punt return of more than 30 yards. In fact, the longest return of any kind for either team was only 25 yards.

The following predictions were incorrect:

Not only did Syracuse become the first team to pick off Boyd, but the Orange intercepted him twice.

Chris Clark did not have another 60-yard receiving day. The Orange did produce a 60-yard receiver in Ashton Broyld, becoming the fourth Clemson opponent in five games to have one. It just wasn’t Clark.

As for Syracuse’s trip to N.C. State, here are five things to look for:

Neither team will score 48 points (at least on their own). Just a hunch this might be a little lower-scoring than what the Orange has dealt with over the last four games. In fact, this stretch is the first time ever Syracuse was involved in four consecutive games with at least one team scoring 48 points (there have been some instances of three in a row, most recently in 1997.

Within its last four games, N.C. State has played games with final scores of 23-21, 26-14 and 28-13. Expect a closer, more manageable score than what the Orange has become accustomed to this season.

N.C. State’s quarterbacks will combine for at least 12 rushing attempts (excluding sacks). The Wolfpack could far exceed that figure if quarterback Brandon Mitchell returns from a broken foot. He has not played since the season opener against Louisiana Tech.

However, replacement starter Pete Thomas is still used as a rusher, and N.C. State utilizes Bryant Shirreffs as a Wildcat option enough to ensure whoever is playing quarterback will be an important part of the Wolfpack’s running game.

It will be a multi-touchdown pass day for Terrel Hunt. Three of N.C. State’s last four opponents have thrown for multiple touchdowns, including Wake Forest with three in last week’s victory over the Wolfpack. It is a vulnerable secondary.

Meanwhile, there’s every reason to think Syracuse will try to get Hunt back on track after his rough outing against Clemson. It’s easy to say the sophomore will be better than his 52-yard, three-interception outing. But the matchup is decent enough for Hunt to thrive as opposed to simply improving on last week.

Syracuse will be held to less than its season average of 4.6 yards per carry. The Orange won’t struggle to 1.92 yards per carry like it did in its opener against Penn State. In fact, a day like that against anyone on its remaining schedule (with the exception of Florida State) is extremely unlikely given Syracuse’s commitment to the running game and ability to get yards when its quarterback takes off.

Still, N.C. State keeps opponents to a commendable 3.4 yards per carry and has surrendered only five touchdowns on the ground. The Orange won’t have the easiest go of it against the Wolfpack’s front seven.

There will be at least 15 penalties. Let the flags fly. Syracuse and N.C. State are tied for last in the ACC (along with North Carolina) with 7.6 penalties per game, and there isn’t much reason to think either team (both of which have first-year head coaches) will suddenly become mistake-free.

The Orange committed seven or eight penalties in each of its first five games. N.C. State’s had a wider range, getting called for as many as 10 penalties and as few as five. No matter how it works out, expect to hear the referee’s voice a fair bit during Saturday’s broadcast.