Luke Scott had an excellent 2010 at the plate, and though he wasn’t likely to repeat it in 2011, the move to left-field could have theoretically made him just as valuable of a player if his defense out there hadn’t degraded too far.

Projected

Actual

PA

525

236

BA

.264

.220

OBP

.345

.301

SLG

.479

.402

wOBA

.357

.307

BB%

10%

10%

K%

21%

23%

HR

24

9

BABIP

.295

.250

Defense

-3

-2

WAR

2.1

-0.1

Luke started out the here hitting well – .167/.314/.492 in April – with the only trouble being the low batting average due to a .262 BABIP and a few too many K’s. Then he started to fall off a bit (.317 wOBA in May/June), before going on the DL (and then coming off the DL, and then going right back on the DL) in July. The shoulder injury could have been responsible for the drop-off in power, as Scott’s .182 ISO was easily a career low. The low BABIP for the year may be partially explained by a low line-drive rate – possibly, like with the homers, because he couldn’t hit the ball with as much authority – but also likely shows some bad luck.

With the down year, plus some questions about how effective he’d be in 2012, there’s a fair chance that Luke Scott won’t be in an O’s uniform next season*. If so, ’11 would be a sad way to see him go out as an Oriole. He’s provided the team with some very solid production since coming over from Houston.

* If a team thinks he’ll recover reasonably well, he could potentially be a bargain. Scott can still hit pretty well; give him even a .285 BABIP and he’s at a much more “normal” .253/.330/.442 for 2011.