lunedì 29 settembre 2014

Insurgents, criminals and Permanent World War I

The future is
this: a permanent war characterized by a variable geometry and fought by
actors, mostly defined as insurgents who are opposed not by armies in the
classic sense but by their evolved form. Besides, even the very concept of war
as a form of conquest or defense, has changed and adapted to the contemporary
world.

The regular
armies can now rely on technological assets that permit to carry out acts of
war at distance without direct involvement: the drones and the contractors,
sophisticated term which replaces the less polite mercenaries.

Armies and mercenaries,
however, does not represent a key element of the First Permanent World War being
mere instruments operating in contrast to the onset groups that are the real
stars of this evolving geopolitics framework.

The today’s insurgent
are the subversive of yesterday; it is always matters to overturn an
established power in order to replace it with something new and different.

In essence,
those who, generally and generically, are defined terrorists, now as then, are insurgents,
revolutionaries, who may have started their own war through acts of terrorism
but that, over time, seek to structure and establish giving rise to militant
organizations most articulate.

This
distinction is crucial in dealing with the present global geopolitical
situation as it enables us to understand the operational dimension of the main
actor in the First Permanent World War: the insurgency.

Terrorists
and insurgents; let me point out the main difference before proceeding further.

A terrorist
group is an entity which has in itself the precursors to develop into a
subversive militia once circumstances
permit, while a subversive group, revolutionary or insurgent, has already
achieved this higher stage characterized by more complex military capabilities, economic and policy
power.

Such a
movement needs to be structured to operate in a given area, and most
importantly with the requirement to escape the meshes of the power that it
opposes. For this reason it is inevitable build a logistical capacity adequate
to manage militants, equipment, ammunition and supplies in general; all this
takes place on a specific territory and involves huge costs. Here, these
two aspects are already indicators of the importance and inevitable need for
any form of insurgency to come into contact with organized crime anywhere in
the world due to the fact that it always controls the channels of illegal trade
-the smuggling routes- thanks to which you can find and get any goods, move
everything you need and even do business with it directly in order to finance
the huge costs the insurgency.

And it is, as
I will analyze in detail in the future, in this general framework that realizes
the synergy of interests between illegal insurgents, criminals, profiteers and
opportunists of various kinds of profession.

In substance
and in summary, the USA, is no longer the sole arbiter of world equilibrium
because it has to deal with other powers of different levels and weight, such
as China, Russia, India, Japan, Pakistan and more closely with the countries of
Latin America.

Today the
actors are many and the only way that the United States, but also other
countries, including emerging, have for survive is to ensure that none of the big
players at the international table prevail. To achieve this result as were used
to the Roman divide et impera, divide and rule.

It is starting
from this need that logically makes sense the concept of the First Permanent World
War: great powers have only one way to fight others: destabilize the geopolitical
world sensitive theaters engaging the rival powers in terms of cost economic
and political equilibrium.

So in this
new world the insurgents and crime will work closely together and are intended
to have a bright future.