A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94LWind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near MazatlanTropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertainTyphoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.

Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quoting hurricanejunky:Wow Hydrus,Pretty disturbing picture you paint. Is that an ad campaign for flood insurance? Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida you really ought to have flood insurance. Consider that if you don't live in a mandatory flood insurance zone it only costs about $300 a year for that piece of mind. You never know when a frontal boundary or tropical system might stall out and dump tons of rain on an area. Just ask victims of Faye!

I am with you on that, I have lived in Florida for over 40 years and have seen many floods. It is good to have the insurance!

Wow Hydrus,Pretty disturbing picture you paint. Is that an ad campaign for flood insurance? Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida you really ought to have flood insurance. Consider that if you don't live in a mandatory flood insurance zone it only costs about $300 a year for that piece of mind. You never know when a frontal boundary or tropical system might stall out and dump tons of rain on an area. Just ask victims of Faye!

The nightmare storm for S.W. Florida. Huge disturbance moves off the Northern coast of South America into S.W. Caribbean with the water temperatures at record levels and absolutely no shear. The HUGE disturbance intensifies rapidly due to the perfect conditions. It moves NNW toward the Yucatan Channel at 8 knots. Now as a cat-4 cruising through the majestic channel and tearing Cuba a new one (again), our hurricane changes direction and positions itself 200 miles S.W. of the S.W. Florida coast. It intensifies further going to cat-5 status. the strongest and largest recorded in the Atlantic Basin with sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts around 250 mph. Due to its proximity to the coast and very slow movement, it dumps nearly 100 inches of rain on the southern half of the state before lumbering inland at 3 knots and maintaining its strength while doing so due to ideal conditions. Then the hurricane stalls over Southern Florida for a week because of very weak steering currents and they receive another 129 inches of rain.What is left of the wind ripped South Florida area now is submerged completely when the combination of the storm surge not being able to retreat and the copious amounts of rainfall cover all areas. The people are astonished at the power of Mother Nature and bewildered as to why EVERYTHING is gone. Walking around in the baking stench trying to salvage anything that might be remaining of there previous lives. Praying that there relatives and friends are o.k. Wondering if the insurance companies are going to go belly up because of the enormous amount of damage. I would bet you can imagine the rest.

Umm you missed skirting along the Texas/Miss/Ala coast on its way to Florida

and, simultaneously, a Cat#3, Hawaiibut it's far easier to edit than to create such a magnificent scenarioGood morning. So Tacoman is Stormno, Stormtop, but there's two Tacos? Thanks for Tamiflu advice, Orca, was wondering if that helps the nausea? Pls. feel better.

Could someone pls. help update me on Neki? Is. of Maui could expect what kind of winds?

Those Galveston winds can't be very happy-making just a little more than 1 yr. after H. Ike.

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE COMPUTER FORECAST."

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE COMPUTER FORECAST."

Jeez...their talking about the one in the Caribbean...or maybe they meant southern Costa Rica?

Quoting eyesontheweather: I guess it is (has been ) a watch and wait situation. There seems to be thought that SW carib Low is going to sit in place for awhile. Any knowledge as to what the EPAC low is predicrted to do? BTW, enjoyed the popcorn last night however caffinated sodas kept me awake.

From the eastern Pacific discussion...

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE COMPUTER FORECAST."

hey i posted earlier, well i thought i did ,maybe it did not show up lol. but the last nhc surface map i saw had this sw carrib system turning nw after 72 hrs.I stated earlier that juan was a hurricane this time of the year. I remember nash saying it was a hybrid type storm that was intangled in a front.it was one reason it was able to streghen despite shear and cooler sst in the north/gulf, possible that this might try something like this? hope this post shows up like your and others take on this . thanks.

Look like 2 separate lows. I see the one in the SW Caribbean. The one in the east-Pacific looks pretty impressive.

Maybe if they get away from each other the one in the Caribbean has a better chance.

Your point may be correct...

I guess it is (has been ) a watch and wait situation. There seems to be thought that SW carib Low is going to sit in place for awhile. Any knowledge as to what the EPAC low is predicrted to do? BTW, enjoyed the popcorn last night however caffinated sodas kept me awake.

Good Morning. Yup, sheer rules and not looking too promising for both AOI's at the moment. Dr. M predicted one to two more possible storms in the 2nd half of October a few weeks ago and we've come close but no cigar. Unless sheer relaxes over the next ten days, and with moderate El Nino conditions still present, I would not expect anything in November so we may be looking at the end of the season if neither of these two area are able to develop. However, we will start seeing an uptic in tornadic activity in the Southern US, connected with frontal boundries, as the Fall and Winter progresses with El Nino conditions.

Good morning from Galveston. This is about the worst weather I've seen this year. The wind is gusting (weather service says the gusts are up to 25 mph, but it seems harder than that) and there is torrential rain. Do you guys think this will let up once the front comes through, or do you think remnants of Rick will keep it going longer?

there appears to be a low pressure center near the costa rica/nicaragua border right on the coast lets see what happens but i dont think we will get development from this as long as its close to the coast

boy ike yall had a donnybrook lastnight.Be careful, like i said yesterday " i was banned for firing back at weather student and it was minor.I still believe these blog admins are more worried about the trolls, and are quicker to ban the responders who get fed up. maybe they get a kick out of them.and as far as the the disturbance in the sw carrib, looks like the nhc is anticipating that this low will move back nw after 72 hrs. i guess that throws stormtops 25n theory out. very well could see some kind of hybrid system impact the northern gulf coast.pat would have better details, but juan formed in late oct and although it was a 85 knot hurricane i remember nash roberts always saying that juan was a hybrid thats why it flourished even with shear and lower sst. well ike i respect your opinion but you are a bigger man than me i get a bellyfull in a hurry with the wise a--- that come on this blog. Have a blessed day.