UVM's incoming class has fewer Vermonters

“It’s the perfect storm of all those things,” says Beth Wiser, Director of Admissions at the University of Vermont talking about the declining pool of Vermont high school graduates, a more talented applicant pool and heavy recruiting of in-state students by out-of-state colleges.(Photo: RYAN MERCER/FREE PRESS)Buy Photo

As is customary as the fall semester approaches, the University of Vermont in a news release proclaimed the diversity and academic prowess without acknowledgement of a developing trend on the status of Vermonters in the first-year class.

The 2,400 students of the Class of 2019, the university said, hail from a 40 states and 18 countries. Four percent are international students, 12 percent identify as non-white and 16 percent are the first in their family to attend college.

Students on average, UVM said, had higher high school GPAs and SAT scores than previous applicant pools.

But the announcement omitted one statistic that makes this group unique: the Class of 2019 has a smaller percentage of Vermonters than any other in the history of the 224-year-old institution.

Just 20 percent of first-year students at the state’s flagship university are from Vermont, down from 24 percent last year and 33 percent in 1995. For only the second time in that 21-year period, fewer than 500 Vermonters enrolled.

The class has just 11 more Vermont students than Massachusetts enrollees, a curious statistic given UVM’s status as a public university and a much higher tuition rate for out-of-state students.

The in-state representation in the entire undergraduate student body is higher, at 30.1 percent, though UVM stands out in the United States for having the most imbalanced in-state/out-of-state student ratio of any public flagship university.

University officials, such as Director of Admissions Beth Wiser, say placing the in-state/out-of-state student ratio in the proper context is integral discussing the topic.

She outlined the myriad challenges UVM faces in recruiting Vermont students: the state’s declining pool of high school graduates, a more talented applicant pool and heavy recruiting of Vermont students by out-of-state colleges.

“It’s the perfect storm of all those things,” Wiser said.

President Thomas Sullivan said Vermont does not produce enough students to fill its flagship university. UVM admits every qualified Vermonter, he said, and recruits out-of-state students who contribute far more in tuition and strengthen the academic profile of the university.

“We don’t see this as a problem that needs correcting but as a model that has served Vermont very well for decades,” Sullivan said.

A national outlier

No matter the yardstick or forces at play, UVM stands apart in the United States for the institution’s imbalanced student ratio.

New England’s other public flagship universities – the University of New Hampshire, the University of Rhode Island, the University of Maine at Orono, the University of Connecticut and the University of Massachusetts, Amherst have out-of-state populations ranging from 20 to 44 percent of the entire undergraduate student body.

President Sullivan noted the New England states, particularly Massachusetts and Connecticut, are far more populous than Vermont. He said UVM has long relied on New England students to fill its rolls.

Vermont is the second least-populous state in the U.S., after Wyoming. But even measured against public flagship universities of the rest of the 10 least-populous states, UVM remains an outlier.

These universities on average have more out-of-state students than public schools in more populous states. A notable exception is the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, where geographic isolation may explain why only 10 percent of undergraduates are non-Alaskans.

The University of North Dakota has a 59 percent out-of-state student population, though Wiser said UVM faces different challenges than flagships in less densely populated states.

“In the west, students don’t have hundreds of options within 100 miles of them,” Wiser said, adding that there are 18 colleges and universities in Vermont. “We’re in a very unique situation.”

But even the University of Delaware, located within 100 miles of Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., has fewer out-of-state students than UVM. Sixty percent of Delaware’s undergraduates come from outside the state.

UVM's student ratio also contrasts with that of the Vermont State College system, which includes Lyndon State, Johnson State, Castleton University, Vermont Technical College and the Community College of Vermont. In the 2014-15 academic year, 80 percent of undergraduates within the Vermont State College were Vermonters, records state.

Dearth of graduates

Sullivan and Wiser believe Vermont’s declining population of high school graduates to be the greatest factor affecting in-state enrollment at UVM.

UVM admissions staff face a growing numbers problem. The size of Vermont’s graduating high school class peaked in 2008 at about 9,000 students, according to research compiled by College Board. By 2023, researchers project that figure to drop 27 percent, a loss of about 2,500 students.

Wiser said she is pleased that despite the decline in graduates, UVM still draws 2,200 Vermont applicants annually. While the number of Vermont graduates declined 22 percent between 2008 and 2015, in-state enrollment declined 14 percent at UVM

The admissions head said UVM makes admitting Vermonters a priority, but acknowledged in-state students face tougher competition than ever before. Vermont students accounted for just 9 percent the 25,200 applications UVM received this year.

“There are students who perhaps may have been admitted to UVM 10 years ago,” Wiser said, adding that the caliber of an admitted student has changed significantly since that time.

Wiser said admissions counselors weight applications of Vermont students, who tend to score lower on the SAT, to improve in-state admit rates.

“Students coming from out of state on average tend to present a little bit stronger credentials,” Wiser said. “They’ve taken stronger curriculum, they tend to earn higher grades.”

UVM last year admitted 64 percent of Vermont applicants versus 72 percent of those from other states, records state.

In addition to a lack of qualified candidates, Wiser said counselors from public and private universities outside New England have flocked to Vermont in numbers never seen before.

Wiser said since she became head of admissions in 2008, recruitment of Vermont students “has increased tenfold.” Admissions counselors from as far away as South Carolina have come here in hopes of luring Vermont students.

Even when Vermonters are wooed away from their home state, UVM does not concede defeat. Wiser said she is proud UVM is able to attract Vermonters as transfer students, a demographic largely responsible for the greater proportion of in-state students in the total student body than the first-year class.

College-going gap

Ninety-two percent of Vermont public high school seniors graduated in 2013-14 school year, according to the state Agency of Education. In national high school graduation rate rankings, Vermont consistently places in the top 10.

But just 60 percent of high school graduates in 2013 enrolled in a post-secondary program, the agency found.

According to UVM’s office of institutional research, 39 percent of public high school graduates applied to UVM last year. About two-thirds were accepted. This fall, 8 percent of Vermont’s 2015 high school class enrolled at UVM.

Of the roughly 60 percent of Vermont public high school graduates who did not apply to UVM last year, Wiser said some likely would have been admitted but chose to apply elsewhere, while others would have had insufficient academic credentials.

Jill Remick, a legislative policy adviser for the Agency of Education, said the gap between students who graduate from high school and those who attend college shows Vermont needs to do a better job preparing students for higher education.

“There’s no question we really need to do a better and more equitable job across the state preparing students for college or a career,” Remick said.

Remick said Vermont’s stellar high school graduation rate can be misleading because the statistic does not measure the quality of education a student received. Absent from the curriculum of many schools are classes – particularly in math and foreign languages – that make students strong college applicants.

Remick hopes two bills enacted by the Legislature in recent years will address inequity in Vermont schools. Act 46 encourages school districts to consolidate and share resources, which Remick says will increase class and extracurricular options available to students. Act 77 created a dual enrollment program through which high school students can take classes in nearby colleges.

Remick also cited high tuition rates at UVM and other state colleges as a reason why some high school graduates choose not to enroll.

“Students are a little more cautious to take on that debt load,” Remick said.

In 2014, Vermonters who attended UVM graduated with an average of $22,633 in debt.

Flatlanders foot the bill

Wiser said UVM’s higher tuition for out-of-state students plays no role in the admissions process. Out-of-state students who pay $37,056 in tuition, Wiser said, do not take the place of Vermonters who pay $14,664 per year.

On paper, non-residents pay 40 percent more to attend UVM. But Sullivan said because UVM focuses a disproportionate amount of its financial aid resources on Vermonters, out-of-state students pay about 60 percent more than their in-state classmates.

Forty-six percent of Vermonters at UVM attend tuition-free, spokesman Jeff Wakefield said. The rest receive an average financial aid package of $9,465, a 37 percent discount off the “sticker price.” Since 2008, UVM has increased merit scholarships for UVM students from $1,500 to $6,000.

Still, UVM’s cost before financial aid makes the university among the most expensive public universities for in-state as well as out-of-state students.

Sullivan said many public flagships have looked to out-of-state students to fill funding gaps in the wake of the Great Recession. But since UVM’s state support was small even before 2008, Sullivan said, UVM’s increased out-of-state enrollment can be attributed to fewer Vermont graduates.

Among the 50 states, Vermont ranks near last in support for public universities. In 2015, the Legislature’s appropriation accounted for just $42.7 million, or 7 percent of UVM’s revenue.

“The state historically has not funded the university adequately,” Sullivan said.

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“It’s a serious demographic challenge for us, in Vermont and in New England, where you don’t have large populations of people of color,” says University of Vermont President E. Thomas Sullivan.(Photo: Free Press file)

As a result, UVM relies heavily on tuition to cover operational costs. Tuition accounted for 67 percent of the university’s general fund last year.

Because Vermont students pay less to attend and receive more financial aid, the bulk of tuition revenue comes from non-residents.

Out-of-state students paid a total of $229 million to attend UVM in 2015, which accounted for 86 percent of the university’s tuition revenue.

Sullivan said UVM relies on out-of-state students to “remain fiscally viable,” but only because Vermont does not produce enough qualified applicants to keep the university fully enrolled.

On campus Friday afternoon, UVM undergraduates said they were unconcerned about the imbalance between Vermont and out-of-state students.

“Most of the time you don’t know if someone is in-state or out-of-state, unless they specifically say so,” said sophomore Peter Parkinson of Hinesburg. “It doesn’t make any difference whether they are or not.”

Parkinson acknowledged non-Vermonters shoulder the burden of tuition at UVM, but said out-of-state residents choose to enroll there.

“It helps me out a lot, but ultimately it’s up to the student who pays more to be here,” Parkinson said.

Senior Hunter Fenn, who grew up in Kenya, agreed with Parkinson that the student ratio is a non-issue. Fenn hopes UVM will in the future draw tuition revenue more evenly from residents and non-residents.

“I wouldn’t mind if UVM dropped the out-of-state tuition a bit,” Fenn said, noting the wide disparity between what he pays versus the tuition bills of Vermonters. “But people seem to keep coming.”

‘A new normal’

State researchers predict Vermont’s high school graduating class to shrink through about 2027, when will reach nadir around 6,500 students.

Given those challenges, Wiser declined to commit the university to increasing Vermont enrollment.

“This may become a bit more of a new normal,” Wiser said. “Not because we’re not welcoming qualified Vermont students, but the fact is those numbers are declining and those students have many choices.”

Even if the university pledged to increase the enrollment of Vermonters, Wiser said her staff would struggle to find enough qualified candidates.

“I never see us going back to the days of 600 Vermont students,” Wiser said. “They are just not there.”

State researchers predict Vermont’s high school graduating class to shrink through about 2027.(Photo: BRIAN JENKINS/for the FREE PRESS)

Admitting unqualified Vermonters solely to increase in-state enrollment would hurt students as well as the university, Wiser said.

“We don’t have an open door policy of where anyone who wants to UVM can come,” Wiser said. “What we do have is a way for Vermonters who fit the academic profile and are ready for the academic rigor to come to UVM.”

Wiser said UVM intends to devote resources to serving the increasingly talented student body at the university.

“What we want to be able to do is ensure we are serving the state of Vermont,” Wiser said. “Whether it’s in the mix of first-year or transfer students, it’s the idea we want to get the best and the brightest that match our student body to come to UVM.”

Contact Zach Despart at 651-4826 or zdespart@burlingtonfreepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ZachDespart.