Class Notes 2010 - POLI 243Kevin Coles Thursday January 7...

POLI 243Kevin Coles10/01/2012 12:04:00Thursday, January 7, 2010Political science?•Hard sciences vs. social sciencesoHard Sciences Controlled environmentsKnowledge is objectiveoSocial SciencesComplex environments: hard to determine what the independent variables areKnowledge is grounded in rules and proceduresPerspectives, beliefs, etc makes very subjectiveTheories are probabilistic •Political sciences vs. political historyoPolitical ScienceSearch for patterns in eventsWhen has this happened beforeWhy type of event happensTheories of causalityPredictions about the futureVery few good models, not very strongNot many decisions made based on predictionsoPolitical HistoryEvents are unique

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What happenedNot focused on prediction•TerminologyoLaw: repeatedly observable relationshipHard sciences: if X then (always) YSocial Sciences: if X then (probably) YEx: Democracies don’t go to war (exceptions exist, based on definitions)oTheory:Explains a relationshipif X then Y, because...Causal argumentMust be falsifiable, testableTextbook treats book as theory, but has problems•“There is a communist revolution coming”oHasn’t happened“Still coming”•Not falsifiable because there’s no timetable•TheoryoTasks of Theory:DescriptionDescribe the cause-effect relationshipIf Y, then X happenedPredictionIf X, then Y will happenPrescription

How to deal with problemsHow to achieve/avoid YProvides normative goals (controversial)Political science looking for scientific objectivity•Can’t be subjective while maintaining objectivity•Normative for who?Some built in normative/value judgments in theories•Ex: war is badoTheory evaluated in terms of:AccuracyThreshold up for debateGeneralizabilityTheory should apply to / explain multiple casesParsimonySimplest explanation that explains the most thingsEvaluations subjective, certain evaluative criteria valued more than others•Paradigms?oA set of assumptions about the world that:Simplify a complex environment to focus on the most important thingsProvide an analytical filter/analytical lensBlock out “background noise” so we can focus on the important thingsMakes assumptionsoTheories vs. ParadigmsParadigms larger than theories, theories based on paradigms

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