The week saw Premier Christy Clark launch another trade mission, this time to Malaysia where government-owned Petronas is one of the potential investors in developing a liquefied natural gas industry here in B.C.

Her B.C. Liberal government also moved to bolster training and apprenticeships, addressing concerns about a potential shortage of skilled workers if investors go ahead with one or more LNG terminals.

Then along came another report, this time from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, cautioning British Columbians not to count their you-know-whats before they hatch.

For a balanced appraisal on the prospects, I was struck by the assessment provided Wednesday by Andy Calitz, chief executive officer for the LNG Canada joint venture that is proceeding with design and planning for a $12-billion terminal at Kitimat.

He presided at a press conference, attended by the premier herself, that was ostensibly called to formalize a four-part consortium of backers for the project, consisting of Shell Canada (50 per cent), PetroChina (20 per cent) Korea Gas (15 per cent) and Japan’s Mitsubishi (15 per cent).

He began on a celebratory note: “This is an exciting day and a great step forward for our project.” But he was scrupulous about acknowledging how much work remained to be done before construction could be green-lighted.

“It is important to note that today is not yet a final investment decision to construct the project,” Calitz cautioned. “Projects of this magnitude are challenged by significant financial investment and risk … So we have a number of uncertainties to overcome and work to do.”

1: “Our environmental filing with the environmental assessment office and the oil and gas commission.” Rival projects are already engaged in those reviews, hence further along on the process.

2: “Consultation with First Nations and the local community of Kitimat and also Terrace.” Already underway, but with more to be done.

3: “Front-end engineering and design.” Starts this month. The intention is to build the plan on a site next to the modernized Rio Tinto Alcan smelter in Kitimat.

4: “Our gas development strategies and plans from northeast B.C.” The consortium intends to bring gas from the Montney, Horn River, Cordova and Liard gas fields to Kitimat, via a yet-to-be-built pipeline.

5: “Some very important labour arrangements.” Very important because the consortium is determined to avoid the experience in Australia, where worker shortages led to escalating costs and lowered productivity.

6: “Our modularization plans.” The terminal will be constructed from modular components fabricated elsewhere and transported to Kitimat for assembly. Still entails a significant amount of work here in B.C.

Not surprisingly, it will take some time to complete those half dozen items on the list. “We have to go through a full front-end engineering design process and we need to go through the full environmental assessment process,” advised Calitz, in answer to a followup question from a reporter. “That work will take 18 to 24 months.”

On that expectation, it will be late 2015 to mid-2016 before LNG Canada is ready for the seventh item on the to-do list: “A final cost estimate before we take the final investment decision.”

The final investment decision, or FID, is the crossing-the-Rubicon episode of the piece, after which the consortium will begin spending the billions necessary to build the terminal itself.

Given a head start, one or another of the dozen or so rival proposals to develop LNG here in B.C. may get to the vaunted FID before LNG Canada. And if even one or two of them decide to go ahead, others will fall by the wayside.

Still the list of considerations that will have to be sorted out is similar for any potential investor. Calitz, for his part, said three considerations “weigh most heavily on my mind,” paraphrased as follows:

1) What happens to prices in the Asian markets where the LNG is destined to be delivered? 2) Will there be enough labour supply and at what rates and productivity? And 3), will the pipeline company be positioned to deliver the gas through the mountains to Kitimat?

All this will play out over the next 18 to 24 months, in a fashion that major players in the industry, like the four partners in LNG Canada, know as well as anyone.

“We live not only politically but also in the energy industry in a very volatile world where there will be changes on a monthly basis and six-monthly basis and annual basis,” acknowledged Calitz. “So each of the changes will in the end weigh in the minds of very experienced boards of these four companies.”

But he also counselled the need to keep the uncertainties in perspective, as the partners in the consortium themselves will do, drawing on their experience and perspective in that volatile and global industry.

“These four companies have just said: ‘Do we want to continue in British Columbia, do we want to continue the costly process of project development for the next phase?’ ” Calitz noted. “And they’ve all voted yes.”

As to how they or other would-be investors proceed when they reach the final stage of the decision-making process, feel free to place your bets — mindful that the outcome could determine how British Columbians themselves vote in the next provincial election.

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Vaughn Palmer: Uncertainty dominates LNG discussions

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