Oscars: This Year’s 30 Leading Candidates

“12 Years a Slave”

<p>Some critics and pundits were moved to declare the Oscar race over when Steve McQueen&rsquo;s bruising period drama premiered at Telluride and Toronto, hailed as a milestone in the onscreen depiction of America&rsquo;s cruelest chapter. Certainly, the film represents a personal breakthrough for McQueen (&ldquo;Shame,&rdquo; &ldquo;Hunger&rdquo;), as well as for Chiwetel Ejiofor in a career-igniting performance as Solomon Northup, a free black man from the North kidnapped and sold into slavery. Supporting thesps Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong&rsquo;o are likely to score attention for their frightening psychosexual duet as a cruel plantation owner and his prized slave mistress, while John Ridley&rsquo;s screenplay (adapted from Northup&rsquo;s memoir) powerfully fuses narrative, character study and searing observation. &mdash; Justin Chang</p>
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“All Is Lost”

With “All Is Lost,” J.C. Chandor takes a 180-degree turn from “Margin Call,” his talky, large-ensemble, Mamet-like dissection of Wall Street malfeasance, instead delivering a practically wordless meditation on mortality, as well as a showcase for Robert Redford that’s his greatest acting challenge to date. “Margin Call” might have been the most sharply written feature debut since Dylan Kidd’s “Roger Dodger,” so Chandor takes a major risk by scrapping the best tool in his kit in favor of minimal backstory for a lone sailor whose yacht is sinking in the middle of the Indian Ocean, along with any sign of hope. And Redford, a top B.O. draw in the ’70s who won an Oscar for directing “Ordinary People” (1980), inally walks the walk after backing the indie movement for decades as the Sundance kid. — Steve Chagollan

“American Hustle”

David O. Russell’s past two films, “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” each earned picture, director, screenplay and acting nominations, so expectations are high for “American Hustle,” his fictional take on the Abscam scandal that rocked the political world in the late 1970s/early ’80s. He’s assembled an Olympic team of actors, including previous collaborators Christian Bale and Jennifer Lawrence, both of whom won Oscars under his direction, and Bradley Cooper and Amy Adams, who earned noms for their work with the director. All are contenders to watch, as is Jeremy Renner, also in a supporting role. Trailers already have audiences raving about the stunning period costumes and hair — expect Cooper’s perm and Bale’s combover to have their own Twitter accounts soon. — Jenelle Riley

“August: Osage County”

The film adaptation of Tracy Letts’ Pulitzer-winning play could have gone wrong in so many ways. But it didn’t. As Variety chief film critic Scott Foundas wrote in his review, the Weinstein Co. release might not win over highbrow critics, “but as a faithful filmed record of Letts’ play, one could have scarcely hoped for better.” With juicy roles for everyone in the ensemble, the cast has a field day with the material. This bodes well for voting by the Academy, where actors make up the largest branch. But pulling it all together are director John Wells, Letts (adapting his play) and the below-the-line work, creating an atmosphere that is both homey and foreboding. And pretty much everyone can relate to the family dynamics, with its secrets, feuds, alliances, neuroses and comforts. — Tim Gray

“Blue Jasmine”

Not that he’ll show, but Woody Allen seems certain to nab his 24th Oscar nomination for the screenplay of his 48th feature film, just as surely as his leading lady, Cate Blanchett (herself a five-time nominee), is a lock for her stunning turn as the emotionally and psychologically unstable widow of a Madoff-like Wall Street fraud. Another late-career triumph for the Woodman, coming just two years after “Midnight in Paris” earned him career-best box office (and a third original screenplay statuette), the alternately comic and tragic and very timely “Jasmine” could conceivably factor into the picture and director races too. And don’t count out the movie’s acclaimed comeback kid, Andrew Dice Clay, as a supporting actor contender for his very fine work as Blanchett’s washed-up former brother-in-law. — Scott Foundas

“The Book Thief”

Markus Zusak’s 2006 novel has spent more than 200 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list and has won numerous awards. But as with any beloved source material, a film adaptation is a daunting prospect. At the same time, it’s good to have a fanbase in place, as the tale of a young girl sent to live with foster parents in WWII Germany isn’t necessarily an easy sell. (Did we mention it’s narrated by Death?) It also helps to cast actors as stalwart and reliable as past Oscar nominee Emily Watson and Oscar-winner Geoffrey Rush as the adoptive parents. And newcomer Sophie Nelisse is a true breakout as the star. The film is helmed by Brian Percival, the director responsible for many episodes of “Downton Abbey” and the one who landed none other than the great John Williams to provide the score. — Jenelle Riley

“Captain Phillips”

The last time Tom Hanks received an Oscar nom was 12 years ago for “Cast Away,” and he may well earn another for his similarly committed and cathartic performance in the very different survival-at-sea context of “Captain Phillips.” As for helmer Paul Greengrass, he was nominated for directing 2006’s “United 93,” and his kinetic filmmaking here is on the same viscerally and morally compelling wavelength. Billy Ray’s screenplay, drawn from Richard Phillips’ account of his harrowing experience, could earn plaudits for its sensitive handling of suspense-thriller mechanics, as well as its refusal to traffic in one-dimensional villains; further bearing that out, bigscreen newcomer Barkhad Abdi gives the film’s other notable performance as one of the Somali pirates who attacks Phillips’ ship. — Justin Chang

“Dallas Buyers Club”

Patience and resilience were indispensible for the characters in “Dallas Buyers Club,” and so it was for the filmmakers. A journey that took the better part of two decades offscreen culminated in the extremely well-received premiere of the film in Toronto. Nearly skeletal Matthew McConaughey will get heavy consideration for a lead actor nomination in portraying the unlikely hero that was once-homophobic Ron Woodroof. Jared Leto’s supporting performance was his first onscreen work in four years — yet perhaps no less likely a nominee or less worthy. Jean-Marc Vallee, the Montreal native whose ability to direct so reliably in the American south — with a no-frills budget — helped bring the tough-love screenplay of Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack to fruition. — Jon Weisman

“Enough Said”

Starring the late James Gandolfini in one of his last roles, “Enough Said” earned strong reviews after its Toronto festival debut and has grossed a strong $13 million domestically for Fox Searchlight since its Sept. 20 release. Writer-helmer Nicole Holofcener has never earned an Oscar nom, although her body of work has a strong critical and fan following. Holofcener cast two TV stars as her leads: Gandolfini and Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Both have earned a slew of Emmys and other awards for their smallscreen work, but neither has been recognized for bigscreen outings. Mere months after his passing, Gandolfini’s pull on the awards process could be a factor, especially considering his fine film work in the recent past. Toni Collette, who has also bridged the film-TV gap, deserves a look in supporting actress. — Carole Horst

“Fruitvale Station”

Ryan Coogler’s bigscreen writing-directing debut won both the jury and audience awards at Sundance. In July, Variety chief film critic Scott Foundas wrote that six months later, the film stayed with him: “In its carefully observed, unvarnished portrait of middle-class African-American life … it makes a major impression.” The film offers something rarely depicted onscreen: the details of everyday life for a middle-class black person, whether suspicious looks from store clerks or the frustrating search for a greeting card that shows a family of color. The film also lingers because of current parallels in the daily news about racial profiling and simmering tensions, such as the Trayvon Martin trial in Florida. Among its many virtues are the performances of Michael B. Jordan and Octavia Spencer. Among the producers: Spencer and Forest Whitaker. — Tim Gray

“Gravity”

Merging blockbuster level thrills with an intimate approach to character, Alfonso Cuaron’s eloquently executed space pic has wowed audiences of all species following its world premiere at Venice. Sandra Bullock, forced to go it alone for much of the film, gives a performance that several have placed ahead of her Oscar-winning work on “The Blind Side.” George Clooney offers nice complementary work as her stabilizing astro pal. But at this point, the question seems less whether the film will be nominated for lead actress, picture, director and screenplay than whether it can go all the way. Perhaps the biggest roadblock: At 91 minutes, “Gravity” is nine minutes shorter than any best picture winner in the past decade. Will its economy become a boost rather than a burden? — Jon Weisman

“Her”

Spike Jonze delivers a wholly unique tale about love in the not-so-distant future, where a lonely man (Joaquin Phoenix) falls in love with his computer operating system. And who can blame him, considering it’s voiced by Scarlett Johansson? Jonze’s script defines “original,” which is the screenplay category it will compete in — and might even be considered the frontrunner. But he’s also a strong director candidate, as no one can doubt “Her” is his vision. It’s all held together by heartfelt, tender performances. Phoenix deserves to break into the competitive actor race, reminding us he can be charming and light. Amy Adams is stellar in a supporting role as a friend that could have veered into cliche. And believe the hype about Johansson, who is truly deserving of accolades for her vocal performance. — Jenelle Riley

“Inside Llewyn Davis”

A fitting companion piece to “Barton Fink,” which also happens to be the first in the Coen brothers’ off-kilter oeuvre to have attracted Oscar attention, this portrait of yet another little man thwarted by fate substitutes screenwriting with strumming, taking place against the backdrop of the West Village folk music scene, circa 1962. Though it may seem an odd milieu for the Coens to so meticulously recreate, especially following the commercial success of “True Grit,” devotees will recognize this haunting semi-satire as the apotheosis of their obsessions, from American roots music to the thwarted ambitions of exasperated dreamers. Beyond Oscar Isaac’s career-changing lead turn, Carey Mulligan and John Goodman offer standout support in a masterfully crafted film that warrants consideration in all categories. — Peter Debruge

“The Invisible Woman”

It wouldn’t be awards season without a proper Blighty costume drama, and Ralph Fiennes contributes as both director and star for this Christmas Day release. Fiennes plays the part of Charles Dickens with relish, while keeping the story of the famed author-actor-bon vivant’s intimacies with the much younger Ellen Ternan (Felicity Jones) moving right along. Jones easily navigates the nuances of playing Ellen at multiple ages and emotions. Kristin Scott Thomas, reuinted with her “English Patient” campadre, is on point in her supporting role. Screenwriter Abi Morgan, fresh off an Emmy for miniseries writing in September for “The Hour” and two years removed from multiple BAFTA noms (“Shame” with Steve McQueen and “The Iron Lady”) shows off her versatility and comfort with period pieces of different sorts. — Jon Weisman

“Kill Your Darlings”

The anarchic, liberating spirit of the Beats is recreated in “Kill Your Darlings” in a way that has eluded past efforts. If last year’s “On the Road” amounted to speed Kerouac and 2010’s “Howl” ended up a stilted dissection of a landmark poem, “Darlings” gets to the root of what drove the movement’s seminal figures to rebel against convention in potently literate, dramatic fashion. This is a decidedly underdog effort in a season of big guns, but John Krokikas’ film boasts a wellspring of fresh talent and A-grade production values. A breakthrough performance by Dane DeHaan, who plays Lucien Carr as Adonis, muse and provocateur to Daniel Radcliffe’s sweet, soulful Allen Ginsberg, drives this film. And Jack Huston honestly plays Keruoac with all his competitive, misognyistic tendencies intact. — Steve Chagollan

“Labor Day”

After some very verbal comedy-dramas, writer-director Jason Reitman does an about-face with “Labor Day” and pushes his longtime below-the-line workers into new territory as well. In the Paramount film, a lonely, emotionally closed woman (Kate Winslet) meets a stranger (Josh Brolin) who warms up the lives of her and her 14-year-old son. The only catch: He’s an escaped killer. Reitman told Variety that the duo’s first encounter was “one of the trickiest scenes I’ve ever had to direct.” Some audiences love it, some reject it: “And that’s kind of fun for me. It lets me know that I’m working with interesting material.” Buoying the film are veterans of Reitman’s earlier films, though they were all working with material and needs far removed from the previous pics. Winslet, Brolin and Reitman should all receive strong awards consideration. — Tim Gray

“Lee Daniels’ The Butler”

If there’s an upside to the studio clash that left Lee Daniels’ historical drama with its ungainly title, it’s that no one will ever forget who directed it. More subdued than the powerfully over-the-top “Precious” or the hilariously over-the-top “The Paperboy,” Daniels brought a raw power and unity to screenwriter Danny Strong’s decades-spanning melodrama. Daringly off-note stunt casting aside (Robin Williams as Eisenhower?), the film boasts a potent trio of central performances: As faithful White House butler Cecil Gaines, Forest Whitaker (who won the Oscar for 2006’s “The Last King of Scotland”) is fully present even in his passivity. As Gaines’ spirited wife, Oprah Winfrey could receive her first Oscar nomination since 1986’s “The Color Purple,” while David Oyelowo gives the film’s most revelatory turn as Gaines’ estranged activist son. — Justin Chang

“Lone Survivor”

The title tells the outcome, yet audiences are riveted because writer-director Peter Berg creates such intensity and humanity in his retelling of the real-life saga. Universal’s film is based on Marcus Luttrell’s book (written with Patrick Robinson) about a Navy SEAL team’s 2005 mission to capture Taliban leader Ahmad Shahd in Afghanistan. The film was shot on a limited budget in conditions that were tough for the cast and crew. But their work pays off in a story that has action, plot twists and heart. Berg told Variety that he was immediately interested in the book and worked on it for years. “After spending time with the survivors, family members and colleagues of the SEALs, the power of the story continued to grow.” Mark Wahlberg will get a push for lead actor out of a cast that includes Taylor Kitsch, Ben Foster, Emile Hirsch and Eric Bana. — Tim Gray

“Mud”

Though well-received at both Sundance and Cannes, Jeff Nichols’ “Mud” is possibly the lowest-profile film in Oscar contention. It boasts a single previous Oscar winner in Reese Witherspoon, and its slow-churning slice of East Arkansas life couldn’t be further removed from the epic scope to which the Acad tends to gravitate. Yet the same could have been said about Billy Bob Thorton’s Arkansas-set “Sling Blade,” which nabbed the writer-thesp a screenplay statue in 1996, and the fast-rising Nichols could easily see himself in contention in that category. Matthew McConaughey’s splashier turn in “Dallas Buyers Club” might overshadow his excellent performance here, but youngster Tye Sheridan and old lion Sam Shepard are more than worthy of consideration in the acting categories. — Andrew Barker

“Nebraska”

Helmer Alexander Payne has two Oscar wins under his belt for writing (“Sideways,” “The Descendants”), both of which he shared with other scribes. He’s been nominated twice for directing, but the buzz after its Cannes debut focused on the acting — with Bruce Dern winning lead actor at the fest. Dern has one Oscar nom, for 1978’s “Coming Home.” TV and film vet Will Forte — an Emmy nominee for “30 Rock” — also surprised festival auds with his portrayal of Dern’s son. Paramount pic has hit many major film festivals, and is set for a Nov. 15 bow Stateside. Bob Nelson’s feature film debut as screenwriter also made him an instant awards contender. Don’t rule out the scene-stealing work of June Squibb propelling her in the supporting actress race, should the film really reach the Academy. — Carole Horst

“Out of the Furnace”

Scott Cooper’s follow-up to “Crazy Heart,” the 2010 latecomer to the awards race that netted Jeff Bridges an Oscar among its honors, is almost mercilessly grim but not at all without wearing its humanity on its sleeve. Christian Bale’s Russell Baze is no anti-hero — he tries to do well by all, and his struggles speak for those of a large swath of America. Bale, unsurprisingly, inhabits the part completely and is arguably the film’s best awards hope, with the caveat of (stop us if you’ve heard this before) how competitive the lead actor race is, along with the fact that he was so recently honored for another American underdog in 2010’s “The Fighter.” He is supported by worthy turns from Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Willem Dafoe, Sam Shepard and Forest Whitaker. The screenplay, written by Cooper and Brad Ingelsby, is taut. — Jon Weisman

“The Past”

On paper, director Asghar Farhadi’s follow-up to his 2011 foreign-language winner sounds like it could be a sequel to “A Separation,” in which an Iranian woman requests a divorce so she and her daughter can pursue better opportunities in the west. Here, an Iranian ex-husband (Ali Mosaffa) travels to Paris and struggles to accept his estranged wife and daughter’s new life abroad. Though written with the same eloquent, theatrical style that previously earned Farhadi a screenwriting nom, this new project feels more European, offering Berenice Bejo (a supporting actress nominee for 2011’s “The Artist”) several meaty scenes in which to show her acting chops, plus a complex role for the astoundingly talented Tahar Rahim, the Robert De Niro of his generation. — Peter Debruge

“Philomena”

One needs a heart of granite to resist the stunning true story of Philomena Lee, an unmarried mother forced to surrender her infant son for adoption by the convent tasked with her well-being. It’s an emotional lead part, delicately played by Judi Dench, whose sole Oscar win was for a walk-on in “Shakespeare in Love” (whereas this could join her four other lead actress noms). Surely aware that “The Magdalene Sisters” provided a more indignant critique of these crimes, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope are to be commended for emphasizing sensitivity over sensationalism in this unexpected upbeat adaptation, which won the Venice film fest’s screenplay prize. Among the pic’s unmissable lighter moments is a scene in which Dench’s Philomena summarizes the plot of “Big Momma’s House.” — Peter Debruge

“Prisoners”

Aaron Guzikowski’s original script is being praised for its twists and turns, and director Denis Villeneuve (the Oscar-nominated “Incendies”) delivers a tense mystery-thriller that keeps audiences guessing. But it also features an ensemble of fantastic actors giving it their all. Hugh Jackman is heartbreaking as the determined father of a missing girl who resorts to kidnapping a suspect — in a less crowded year, he would be a lock for a lead actor nod. Jake Gyllenhaal is impressive as the detective who both argues and empathizes with the distraught parents, and the fact he’s being campaigned in supporting makes him the best shot for an acting nomination from an ensemble that includes Maria Bello, Terrence Howard and Viola Davis. While not always easy to watch, the film is bold and uncompromising — a thriller for adults that never insults its audience. — Jenelle Riley

“Rush”

While the car-racing scenes offer audiences an adrenaline rush, one of the most impactful moments occurs in the hospital where Daniel Bruhl, who plays Niki Lauda, is recovering from a fiery crash. As doctors vaccuum his lungs in a painful procedure, Niki watches his rival James Hunt (Chris Hemsworth) rack up points at other races. Helmer Ron Howard is no stranger to the awards season, winning for directing best pic “A Beautiful Mind” and nominated for “Frost/Nixon” in those categories. Scribe Peter Morgan also has a couple of past noms. Support for the film within the Academy could broaden thanks to the potential for craft nods, including Anthony Dod Mantle (d.p. on “Slumdog Millionaire”) whose camera takes audiences behind the wheel, overhead and all around the action, and composer Hans Zimmer, who has nine noms and a win to his name. — Shalini Dore

“Saving Mr. Banks”

Oscar voters aren’t immune to the pleasures of tales that extoll the virtues and/or magic of the movies, as recent best pic winners “Argo” and “The Artist” loudly attest. Which means John Lee Hancock’s “Saving Mr. Banks” starts its place in the race with that money in the bank. On one level a celebration of Walt Disney’s genius for turning wonderful family entertainments into universal blockbusters with lots of ancillary rights, the real gold here is Emma Thompson’s turn as novelist P.L. Travers, whose heart-wrenching memories of the loving but doomed father inspired the pic’s titular character and gave emotional weight to her timeless classic, “Mary Poppins.” Screenplay consideration for Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith will be significant. — Steven Gaydos

“The Secret Life of Walter Mitty”

Ben Stiller’s whimsical dramedy elicited wildly differing responses when it premiered at the New York Film Festival — some criticized its tonal shifts and sentimentality, while others embraced the charismatic cast and big emotions. But audiences could turn the tale of a milquetoast office drone prone to fantasy into a hit. Stiller is a relatable Everyman, while Kristen Wiig is nicely subdued as Mitty’s dream girl. Stiller’s direction and the script by Steve Conrad could also find a strong support base. It remains to be seen if enough people will take to this acquired taste, as well as whether people with strong feelings for the original or against remakes hold anything against the film. — Jenelle Riley

“Short Term 12”

Though it still faces an uphill battle in gaining exposure, few who saw “Short Term 12” would say that it doesn’t deserve to contend on merit. The story of at-risk kids who have been spiritually if not literally orphaned — and the people who care for them — “12” transcends the collection of edge-of-the-radar independent films thanks in no small part to Brie Larson’s emotionally enveloping performance, one that has kept her in an Oscar conversation that bigger names like Bullock, Streep and Winslet threaten to smother. The screenplay from director Destin Daniel Cretton, which won him an Academy Nicholl Fellowship after being adapted from his Sundance-winning short film, is also an ostensible underdog but one that dares to stand with the best of the year. It wouldn’t kill the Academy to give teenager Kaityn Dever a look for supporting actress as well. — Jon Weisman

“The Way, Way Back”

The scenario isn’t an old one, but it’s fast becoming every bit as familiar as an average “Law & Order” episode: Sweet, quirky, smart-yet-unpretentious indie comedy with modern family themes bowls over festival audiences, does boffo biz in specialty release and scores a best picture nom come winter. Fox Searchlight’s “The Way, Way Back” looks set to add its name next to “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Juno,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “The Descendants” in that regard, yet there’s always hope for something more. A passion project from writer-directors Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, who won an adapted screenplay Oscar for “The Descendants,” the film could see both again in writing contention, while Sam Rockwell’s warmly funny supporting turn as a water park manager could easily earn the iconoclastic thesp his first nomination. — Andrew Barker

“The Wolf of Wall Street”

With Martin Scorsese behind the camera and Leonardo DiCaprio in front of it, “The Wolf of Wall Street” touches a zeitgeisty subject: greedy Wall Street moneymen. Paramount finally slotted the anticipated pic — based on the memoir by Jordan Belfort, the real-life wolf — into a Christmas Day slot, and Oscar-winner Scorsese’s take on white-collar crime is exciting kudos-watchers, taken in by the slick trailers. Two-time actor nominee DiCaprio — who also has a supporting actor nom — might have a better shot for actor gold with this showier role than as “The Great Gatsby.” Jonah Hill has a previous supporting actor nom. Screenwriter Terence Winter is best-known for celebrated TV productions (“The Sopranos,” “Boardwalk Empire”), but the base material is rich for his crime-tinged sensibilities. — Carole Horst