Wobbles (Warriors 98, Kings 105)

The combined shooting figure for Stephen Curry (5-18) and Klay Thompson (1-13). You can point out other flaws in the Warriors’ performance against the frustratingly unbeatable Kings — blown defensive assignments, boneheaded fouls, careless turnovers — but nothing matters as much as the shooting. The Warriors’ offense rises and falls with the ability of the team’s guards to sink jumpers. When both players in the starting backcourt are off, the odds on victory are extremely long. Despite nice performances from nearly every other member of the rotation, the Warriors’ shooting woes simply proved to be too much.

It’s tempting to get worked up over a game like this, but it’s not clear to me that there’s anything behind the Warriors’ awful shooting to drive the worry. The Warriors are a jump shooting team. That’s by both necessity and design. Even when the big men have excellent nights — as Lee, Landry and Bogut all did — the team’s ultimate identity is on the perimeter, not the interior. That identity dictates that occasionally the universal dice rolls that are jump shots will all come up sevens. When you’re 73 games into a season, you’re way past tweaking that identity to minimize the impact of probability wobbles.

The Kings did play the Warriors’ backcourt physically and aggressively. That style of defense has caused problems for the Warriors in the past, and no doubt played some role here, but it’s only part of the answer. Curry and Thompson missed so many wide-open jumpers from areas where they’re usually automatic that it’s hard to see how you can attribute much of their struggles to opposing defense. If Curry or Thompson never saw daylight or were forced out of their comfort zone, I’d be more worried. They weren’t denied their usual games — other than the fact that it took a few more screens to spring them free on occasion. They simply both missed a lot of shots they usually make.

Beyond the starting backcourt, there were plenty of encouraging performances:

David Lee was as efficient as Curry and Thompson were inefficient. He didn’t take a single shot outside the key and was instrumental in getting the Warriors back into the game in the fourth quarter. There were a couple blown defensive assignments, but on the whole he was a steady presence. He did a particularly nice job early in the game on Demarcus Cousins, pushing him out early to avoid letter him get deep position with the ball. Lee’s 6 turnovers make for an ugly blot on his stat line, but they were less damaging in the flow of the game. Most of them were a result of Lee trying to force passes into spots where they wouldn’t quite fit. They were also all concentrated in the first two-and-a-half quarters — not the final 15 minutes, during which Lee never left the court.

Andrew Bogut looked terrifically active in the first half, defending the rim at one end and attacking it at the other. His presence was a large part of the reason the Kings retreated outside, where they eventually caught fire thanks to Isaiah Thomas’ Curry-like performance. But early in the second half, Bogut appeared to pull something in his abdominal area. He winced with pain for a few possessions and moved even more gingerly than usual. He wasn’t the same player afterwards — he wasn’t meeting penetrators at the rim with arms raised or streaking through the lane to make himself available for dunks. If he is injured and it’s something that lingers, it’ll be another frustrating chapter for the Warriors’ center, who was just starting to return to form.

Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry both looked like the better versions of themselves that we grew accustomed to earlier in the season. Jack didn’t kill the team’s ball movement, chose his shots carefully and helped create open looks for Curry and Thompson. Those looks didn’t always produce baskets, but it wasn’t for Jack’s lack of effort. And with the game slipping away in the fourth quarter, Jack kept the Warriors in it by hitting big shot after big shot. Landry likewise returned to what he does best — scoring around the basket with crafty moves. He had a couple of big three-point plays that showed the type of high-activity work that has been missing from his game of late. If this loss has any silver lining, it’s the chance for both key reserves to rediscover the games that made them such big parts of the Warriors’ first-half success.

Curry and Thompson had horrific nights from the field, but their other contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. Curry kept the ball moving while trying to jump-start his own offensive game. His 12 assists included several high-degree-of-difficulty looks where he manufactured opportunity from a whole lot of nothing. He also showed no ill-effects from the ankle scare, so far as I could tell. Thompson meanwhile continued to show improved man-on-man defense. There were a few unnecessary fouls, but on the whole he did an excellent job making sure his man had to fight for daylight. Evans and Thornton shot a combined 10-25 — and 2-12 from behind the arc.

This loss isn’t ideal as the Warriors attempt to build momentum heading into the post-season. But given the outlier quality of Curry and Thompson’s shooting performance, it’s one they should be able to put behind them quickly. This game wasn’t like the losses last month where the defense broke down or the offense ground to a halt. The effort was there and the team was still unselfish to a fault. The shots simply didn’t fall. Games like this may be frustrating, but they’re the inseparable counterpart to the long-range attack that has buried opponents in so many other games this season.

Adam Lauridsen

Post navigation

what the front office did not attend to, the last off season, was finding a two way vet for the bench, instead trading for jack and picking up the unrestricted free agent landry. trading wright for jack seems like a plus, other than one critical area, perimeter d. jack matches up with guards more than wings of course, but he isn’t particularly adept at it, actually weaker than curry or thompson. wright’s wing defense has been replaced by barnes’ and thompson’s, but jack is not a big reason the team has improved on defense over last year. granted, his effort and focus on d are noticeably more consistent than ellis’ were (setting aside whether he’s improved or not in Mil), which makes team d sustainable.

defensive specialists like allen or bowen fit better on some teams than others. respectively, the Mem and SA offenses have efficient ball movement with both inside and outside scoring. the woeyrs’ ball movement is sometimes efficient, sometimes turnover prone, and doesn’t always produce the points in the paint. the close shots that missed vs. Sac in some ways were a greater setback than the numerous perimeter misfires, because inside opportunities are more difficult to generate and rarer for the team.

if smart and Sac can figure out how to depress the woeyr offense, surely the post season opponents are just as capable. curry and thompson probably won’t shoot so poorly again, but teams like OK, SA, Den, LA-C are all stronger than Sac in forcing turnovers and getting points from them. for next season, improvement from the rookies or adding a vet defender, rush’s return, can only go so far if the offense doesn’t see a re-tuning.

Tired

Dr. John,

Have you become a stat freak?

Is someone else using your name?

NCDub

#120–royK:
Liked your thoughts on the Dubs now being better able to attract better players; I’m still not certain of JAX’s worth as a coach next year but repeat my thoughts earlier in the year that he must be evaluated after the dust has settled–not right now; feel also that his floor management will improve over time but would hire a Sloan-type coach in a NYMinute were one to become available; IMO he’s not as bad as some would imply but not (yet?) as good as what we need as we grow;

#129-dr _John:
Absolutely agree on the Bogut leadership stuff–if he gets to even 85% of his former ability next year he’s the Big-man leader for me;
(per #133-jsl though) Curry could/should be even more of a leader as he develops & matures with the ball in his hands per Kidd, Nash et al, but he’ll never have Bogut’s fire in the belly & don’t let’s forget other bigs as team leaders–Bill Russell, Bill Walton to mention just two…ass-kickers demanding effort & performance & leading by example;

Also agree strongly with those of you who feel Klay (Barnes too) would be much better with better coaching–ie., minutes as motivators;

Finally let’s again remember that this re-building is not a sprint, it’s a marathon…& we ARE overachieving!

strummer

overachieving i attribute to coaching.

Coltraning

By the way, we are truly witnessing one of the greatest individual seasons of all time from Lebron. In yesterday’s game, he ripped off 23 points, going 8/8, in 5 and a half minutes, including 6 threes. He’s just playing at another level, and has pretty much been playing at this new level since last year’s playoffs. Pretty scary, since he was already pretty damn good before that…it’s always interesting to read shortsighted criticism of genius at the time. From Bird to Coltrane to Picasso to Monet to Twain to the Beatles to yes, even saint Michael of Jordan, plenty of “experts” took cheap, petty and mean spirited shots at them while they were active.

Those “experts” look awfully foolish now, just as Lebron’s detractors are going to make us shake our heads in dismay that they could be blind to such greatness as it was happening in front of them.

Well I would have to say Jackson is having a much better year as a coach, though it wouldn’t be hard to improve on last year’s. I would definitely put him on a higher plain than the Singletary debacle, a bit more flexible in his approach.

I believe he has earned another year at the controls, his players seem to have bought into his brand of hoops, more of a motivator than an x’s & o’s kind of coach.

For a man who had never coached at any level before, he seems to learned a great deal from just one year’s worth of previous experience. There’s not very much of a pool of experience to draw from to know if he is actually a good coach or an average one, but with the sixth seed in the West, I don’t think anyone can say with merit, that he is actually terrible.

I have much more hope going forward from this season to next’s, than at this point in the season last year. Time will tell.

Steve

Tonight’s game vs Portland is a must win for the Warriors. The Dubs are rested and surely shouldn’t be overconfident coming off their performance on Wednesday. When you throw in the fact that the Blazers played last night and will again be without LaMarcus Aldridge (who didn’t make the trip from Portland to the Bay Area) this game is the Warriors to lose. That said, Damian Lillard can get white hot at times on offense so I’m sure he’ll be the focus of the Warriors D.

Another chance to pad their 6th place lead over Houston. Given the circumstances this would be a worse loss than vs the Kings if they don’t respond with a win.

I have to agree Steve, it would be a worst loss than the Kings game, and I never thought I would say those words.

Actually I wasn’t surprised we lost to the Kings, I almost was expecting it. That needs to be addressed, we shouldn’t be fodder for the Kings to kick around.

I yiyi yi

PWW, we have been fodder for big physical teams this year King Grizz Bulls and yes we must address it this summer. Idon’t think a 10 day contract can do of much good. IMHO the reason is the the team has had a full year of the Preachers motivation to buy into and a 10 day contractor might not., and this team is nothing does seem to have a certain camaraderie. Even though Jack does sometimes become a black hole. Mostly I feel we have gotten this far because we are a TEAM this year who for the most part shares the rock (at least when we win)

I yiyi yi

and this team is nothing if not having a certain

Sorry got to have some more tea

jsl

NCDub: If you think Curry lacks fire in the belly, then we’re watching two different guys. Forget the facial expressions and just watch the play, especially in Q4. This is a kid who wants to win. Wants it badly.

Col: Right you are about LBJ’s season. I didn’t really like him much til the last Finals. But, since then, then he’s been truly special. Almost scary special.

airbus

Moto #153

I think the reason the front office didn’t sign a 2-way bench player in the offseason is pretty simple. They signed Brandon Rush.

Should they have signed a second guy for the role? That’s hard to say. I do think 2 way players aren’t that easy to find when you’re paying bench level money. They’re even harder to find after the season’s started.

Just by accident, I’ve seen a few Bulls games this year and I keep thinking, “Wow, that Nate Robinson guy sure can impact a game now and then.”

I didn’t really expect to see the 3 guard lineup quite as much as Jackson’s used it. It didn’t occur to me that because of that a third point guard who wouldn’t kill the offense might be useful in spots so Curry could sit maybe 3 more minutes/game.

It’s easy now to forget that the team was counting on Brandon Rush and probably a bit more Bogut than they got. The fact that they adjusted is actually pretty impressive.

It’s one of the reasons I find the “Mark Jackson’s the village idiot” and maybe we can keep him around after this season absurd.

It reminds me of people insisting that Stan Van Gundy was holding back Dwight HOward in Orlando. Now that Dwight’s in LA and playing for D’Antoni, we’re seeing how the Magic built its team to fit Howard and did it rather well. Yes, Howard’s had injury issues, but he had them last year too.

Say they did dump Jackson for someone not named Auerbach, Pop, or some Zen Master, is everyone assuming that some of the positives from this year will just be there anyway?

This team gets along and plays very hard even on the horrible nights (far fewer of those than even the we believe year (really 2/3 of a season). The current system suits Curry and Lee very very well. No one’s questioned his role or playing time. Coaches create environmnets where those things happen. That’s also where most of the work is with an emerging team.

Game management is really a smaller part of the equation than we think. The Warriors actually had a coach who was really pretty good at that end, Eric Musselman.

knick

Geez! Whats with all the hissy fit? The temper tantrums by Dr. John. All due to a loss to Sac? How much did you loose betting on the game. Even the great teams loose to mediocre opponents. Last I checked the warriors arent great yet.

NCDub

#161-jsl:

We just might be watching two different guys, but I’d guess it’s just on a few semantics & technicalities. We both love Steph, that’s for sure.

I agree with your assessment of Steph. Sure he’s tough & wants badly to win. But he’s not as much of a team leader at this time as is Bogut IMO. And no I don’t think a team leader has to yell & be demonstrative–remember the calm Henry Aaron?…Ernie Banks?

Curry could get there as a leader but he’s just not there yet. Didn’t say he was not committed, not good, not great to have. But leaders need to drive the wagon when it gets tough & he’s not there IMHO…yet! Could he get there? Certainly. 🙂 No disrespect.

knick

airbus@162.
Excellent points.

knick

@NCDub
Just wondering, what have you seen about Bogut to convince you about his leadership skills, aside his size?

jsl

Bogs can run the D from down low, but Curry runs the offense — as he should.

Dudbcakes

@163 Airbus: Nice summary- I like your analysis about how Curry & Lee. They are a tandem working well together. I also agree with your assessment about Mark Jackson. In all fairness, give him another opportunity to be around for the next season. The whole team seems to thrive and get along under his guidance. If his team didn’t buy into his beliefs, I do not think our team would be sitting at the sixth seed…that is amazing accomplishment in itself.

@166-knick:
Guess I just like his calling out guys (but not making it personal) when he sees that they’re out of sync, in the wrong place, not seeing opportunities, settling for cheap shots, lazing on D; Also like his commitment to getting it right, toughing it out, making adjustments, guts & determination; And he’s fearless as far as standing up to the task & not backing down it seems to me;

@167-jsl:
Well said–glad to have them both. Your presentation is better than mine & gives a more balanced viewpoint. Maybe I was the one not “listening”. Kudos…

Dubcakes

This is “how an emerging Andrew Bogut could be the playoff difference for the Warriors”

western playoff seeds — the close race between good teams (in contrast to the mediocre UT Dal et.al.) is Den vs. LA-C for third. Lawson is out indefinitely but one should not count Karl out. contrary to lacob’s ‘three star’ ideal, Karl favors ensemble work, and ignores what the preacher said, how the better teams he was on or watched shortened their rotations in late season playoff runs. would those two teams prefer to meet Mem or GS in the first round ?

Dubcakes

This article appeared on March 29th, 2013, SF Business Times/Eric Young

Bogut’s main role is supposed to be anchoring the Warriors defense, but the team’s offense has actually gotten a bigger boost with his presence. During the past 12 games, the team has an offensive rating of 108.6 with Bogut on the floor — nearly five full points better than their season mark. It’s a slightly shocking number given how limited his offensive game is these days. Bogut never was an accurate outside shooter or a dynamic post scorer, and his patented lefty flip shots have found their mark less and less these days. But he’s still found a way to help Golden State improve its offense. Though his passing and offensive rebounding get the most attention, it’s the big man’s screening that pays the most dividends.

Moving in the right direction, Kudos again the FO, Now trade Beans and Jeff and you really will be miracle workers

Go Warriors Beat Portland

Dubcakes

NBA TV just replayed the Lakers/Warriors game (3/25th) this afternoon (2-4pm)… nice to see that Dubs finally matter!

Dubcakes

@76 I yiyi yi: You’re welcome! Let’s hope we get a win tonight against the Trailblazers. Cut down on Curry & Lee’s minutes….utilize the bench players more.

…scotch

Hey dr_john, I think Curry was talking to you in this mornings Chron? Here’s what he had to say about the start of games…

“It starts with the point guard being aggressive and having a spark under him…At the beginning of a game whether I’m making shots or initiating the offense, as long as I have a pep in my step, everybody follows suit. It’s a big responsibility, but it’s really rewarding when you see everybody locked and enjoying the game and the process of winning.”

(Note, this was a Rusty Simmons piece in the paper only, couldn’t find it on their site? Maybe Steve knows what buttons to push?)

…scotch

BTW, if you can get your hands on a Chron it was a flattering piece on Steph titled “Curry elevates to new heights for playoff push”.

“But here is the odd part, the Warriors relied on jumpers even though their inside game was working.

The Warriors usual inside guys — David Lee, Harrison Barnes, Carl Landry, Andrew Bogut — were a combined for 27 of 41 (65.8 percent). Those four players took one fewer shot than the Warriors guards — Curry, Thompson and Jarrett Jack — who went 12 of 46.

Not only do you not take transition jumpers when you’re ice cold. But you don’t take them when you have high-percentage offense clicking. Jackson has yet to figure out a way to make that a reliable part of the Warriors attack.”

TK is right.
It’s a joke that we had to have Thompson shooting forced 3s when our bigs were having a field day.
It’s very very weird that a premier PG like MJack not knowing he has capable bigs with higher % shots.

“This game will likely be decided in the matchups. The starters for both teams play remarkably similar styles; Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry are both scoring point guards, favoring the deep game, but capable of high level facilitation. Wesley Matthews and Klay Thompson are both high energy guards with prolific 3 point shooting. J.J. Hickson and David Lee are among the league leaders in double doubles, 5th and 1st respectively.

The mismatches come at small forward and center. Nicolas Batum far outmatches rookie, Harrison Barnes. Look for Batum to be a difference maker in this one. Head Coach, Terry Stotts, likes to use him and his long arms to obstruct the passing lanes on defense, and his vital play making judgment to create opportunities for his teammates on offense. The Frenchman will be called upon to make everyone better.

Unfortunately, this brings us to the Centers. Andrew Bogut (Golden State’s prize of the Monta Ellis trade) is prepared to dominate the struggling Meyers Leonard. Although Leonard’s potential has become more apparent in recent weeks, I am unimpressed with his defensive play thus far. Bogut, however, is a seasoned vet who, when healthy, can push a team over the top with his inside presence. Don’t be surprised if Leonard is the chink in Portland’s armor.”

Coach looked at my City hat and asked “Is THAT an autograph?” and I said ‘It sure is. . .’ (. . .Scotch). I have to wash that hat someday.

I was listening to Dennis Scott and Mitch Richmond talk about how this is the special time of the year. Teams want to get healthy, get in synch, try to set/improve their playoff position. Young teams are coming with energy to go out on a high note after a disappointing year.

So today we have Exhibit A: the Mavs staged a marvelous comeback led by Nowitski and Wright against a sharp Bulls team led by Boozer, Deng and Robinson. Man, this was a great game. The Jazz pulled off a similar effort last night.

Curry discusses the point I brought up from the player’s perspective. The coach can be that guy, too. Larry Drew saw something he did not like and calls a timeout 1:06 into the second half. Sometimes the coach must do this and I don’t think Jackson will. It sounds something like “Well, since you forced me to burn a timeout I did not want to use, you need to realize this game started over 4 minutes ago”.

Of course I vented after the kings game. Sort of said the same things that Bogut said. (And then some, sure) But I just don’t feel like shrugging it off as “One mediocre team just lost to another, so what? That’s what they do”

No, I refuse to accept that that’s what the Warriors DO. That’s what they DID in the past, which is where that needs to stay.

It’s the Dubs turn to be better.

Jazz hold the tie-breaker over the Lakers. How big is that?

The Rockets hold the tie-breaker over the Warriors. How big is that? As big as the Kings game?

Every single stat and the fantasy league synopsis says Klay is about 125th in shooting, ranks about the same for all starting guards this year in 4th quarter points. We can’t mention that here, or wonder what the coaches might want to do about it?

Can Hickson/Leonard play as well as Patterson/Hayes? Will the Warriors have a laugher over a decimated Blazer team? I’m not guessing. And if they lose, I won’t vent.

Bry:

I believe Jack/Curry were 5-10 in the paint which also gained the 8-10 freethrows (I don’t recall whether they were fouled on outside shots), so I think they were also effective in the paint.

bryhsiao

now I wonder coach’s cliche “being true to ourselves” actually means let’s not improve and adjust.
live by the 3 and die by the 3.

It’s looking more and more like it

dr_john

We surely need to shoot 3’s, lots of them. But the right kind. Right spacing and movement. Right shooters.

Hope the starters hold serve (at least), then —>

Our bench, probably all of them, should get a lot of run tonight.

Blazers are forced to run their starters 44 minutes with only Claver, Maynor and Freeland getting many minutes. I like Jeffries vet contribution, as limited as it is.

Rush on the court for photos! Nice.

Dubcakes

Nice to see Brandon Rush @ Oracle!

dr_john

They don’t need to overemphasize shots for Bogut. Last game he had his first double digit attempts with 11– that’s ok, so long as he’s doing stuff like the pick for Curry’s 3, or the pass next play into the key for Lee’s dunk.

Bogut and Lee aren’t quite as good defensively together as I think they might be. Not sure why/how the coach decides who matches to who. Lee started last game on Cousins, looked OK there too. Tonight Hickson is tougher for him.

Nice recovery of the game control Jack for Klay, Landry, Ezeli — this should be a high rotation game.

Wouldn’t it be special if the Mavs entered the playoffs as the #8 seed??? Anyone want to face them?

El Topo

Bad ref-ing — too many ticky-tacky fould being whistled.

dr_john

I guess it is tough to win when your guards go 14-42, while your bigs are having big nights.

Just ask Milwaukee, tonight.

El Topo

Glad we stayed away from Meyers Leonard. though he may yet develop.

My man Jonas Valanciunas (from Raptor blog);

“Valanciunas, rookie season: 60.1% TS, 14.9 PER, 15.6% Reb, 3.9% Blk
Number of players who have done that in their rookie season: 2 (Jonas and Dean Garrett)
Number of players who have done that at age 20: 2 (Jonas and Andrew Bynum)”

Would have been easy to get him at #5 if dubs trade #11 (Klay) plus something.

Another Raptor blog: “Sure, he [Val] made some defensive mistakes but, big whoop, everyone does and the kid played hard and well and is showing some of the toughness this team simply lacks. He fights for position, plays hard and is really finishing the season strongly.
One moment caught a lot of people’s eyes:
In the second quarter, he gets the ball on the baseline about 15 feet away and everyone’s expecting to either get rid of it or turn around and try to back his man down. Nope, he squares up, surveys the situation and hits a jumper.

Not all that huge in itself but if he can make that shot and bring guys out to guard him, imagine how effective he’ll be with a pump fake and drive?
That’s going to really make him dangerous and I think he’s bright enough to know how special that can be.”

What a beautiful play by Barnes- the speed, the agility, & the elegance of the dunk-

Our Team

3rdQ: Mark Jackson, please give Harrison Narnes more minutes. The guy gives us another dimension on the court.

dr_john

El Topo

Leonard and Drummond are both going to be fine, very fine.

But the discussion tonight missed on Lilliard—Cleveland has Irving, Wizards have Wall. Sacramento is the screw up, but what’s new there?

The Warriors take what they were dealt, and happy to win the coin toss else nada.

Valanciunas may be it—I like him, but he was a draft and wait guy. Spurs do that. Warriors? No, they squandered 2nd round picks, one of which is actually Asik. Now, maybe, they’ve awakened in the FO. Kuzmic may be something, maybe —but the light bulb is finally on.

Meantime, if Barnes can do this against Batum, maybe we can afford to wait one more year for Klay.