China Military Coup? As In The West, Don't Believe What You Read On Twitter

Rumours of a supposed power struggle at the heart of the Chinese Communist party have been bouncing around the internet since Monday, after thousands of people on Chinese social media sites reported strange events taking place in Beijing.

At first bloggers reported unusual levels of security around the Zhongnanhai leadership compound.

Later, fuelled by reports on websites including the Falun Gong-linked Epoch Times and Taiwanese media which talked of a coup attempt by a left-wing faction at the very top of the Chinese Communist party structure, the rumours began to grow.

On communities including 'the Chinese Twitter', Sina Weibo, and forums on search engine Baidu, reports were posted of gunfire on the capital's Changan Street, military personnel building barricades and shots being fired. Some even posted pictures that appeared to show tanks on the streets.

According to most experts, the theory centres on two top officials: the aforementioned Bo Xilai, and Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang.

Until last week Bo Xilai was a powerful rising politician on the 'New Left' of the Communist Party. As Chongqing Committee Secretary he controlled a large municipality in central China, had led a popular crackdown against organised crime and he was seen a candidate for promotion to the powerful nine-member Politburo Standing Committee.

Above: Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping during his visit to Bangkok. Barring a last-minute coup-de-theatre, Xi will take over from President Hu Jintao as leader of China's ruling Communist party at the 18th congress to be held in October

The key issue is that there are increasingly two competing ideologies (and not just factions) in China - the liberal reformists and the left-wing traditional socialists. That makes it more difficult to transition power from one faction to the other with the minimum of fuss.

"If the factions come to stand for policy platforms, they will naturally start to play for keeps," said the Journal. "Instead of rotating through positions as they currently do, politicians and their proteges will develop personal strongholds… From there it's a short hop to a real coup attempt like the one Mao's designated successor Lin Biao was supposedly plotting in 1971, before he died in a mysterious plane crash."

So as it stands, it doesn't seem like there is a coup taking place - but rather a slow-motion transition of power, which appears increasingly unstable.

Unless it isn't.

Confused? You're not alone.

Part of the problem, journalists based in China argue, is that almost nobody outside the nine-member Standing Committee can really claim to know what is going on inside government.

"The wall of secrecy that Communist Party leadership has built around itself… prevents the development of trust between the government, media and public. It leaves the media with no one to talk to and get real information from when there’s a wild rumour floating about," says the Canadian Globe and Mail's Mark Mackinnon.

For now it's probably easiest to assume the rumours of a coup attempt are false - at least until any real evidence emerges.

Then again you could do what people in the West do on Twitter when a serious new story breaks: make jokes.

As one wag on Weibo joked as the rumours spread: "Regarding last night’s internet rumors that loud noises in Beijing were caused by gunfire … actually the citizens of Beijing welcome the news that oil prices will rise and spontaneously gather in the streets to set off fireworks and celebrate. Don’t worry about a coup!"