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Saturday, 15 December 2012

The Golden Boot: Does it matter?

Becoming
top scorer in the English Premier League provides entry into an elite club of
international superstars such as Thierry Henry, Didier Drogba and Ruud van
Nistelrooy, joining other legends of English football Alan Shearer, Andy Cole,
and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink.

Nine games into
the 2012/2013 season, I conducted an analysis on Arsenal’s shooting (mis)fortunes so far. This revealed that had Arsenal not sold last year’s top
scorer in the league, and had he scored one goal in each of four key games so
far, the team would sit at the top of the table at that point. Robin van
Persie’s goals last season (2.85% of all Premier League goals) were a lifeline
for Arsenal and may just be the difference between the two Manchester teams
this time around.

Van Persie is
already looking like he has the potential to become the third player to retain
the Golden Boot, after Shearer and Henry, and one of only five to have won it
more than once, alongside Hasselbaink and Didier Drogba. He also has the chance
of becoming only the second player to win it with two different clubs after
Hasselbaink.

The only player
currently topping van Persie’s count for this season is Miguel Michu of Swansea,
who currently has twelve goals after sixteen games. However, it has been twelve
seasons since a player not from Manchester United, Arsenal or Chelsea has won
the golden boot (Kevin Phillips of Sunderland back in 2000).

Worryingly
for other title contenders, United now possess the two highest scorers in the
league last year in van Persie and his new strike partner Wayne Rooney. Between
them they totaled fifty-seven league goals last term (5.35% of all goals).
Since van Persie’s arrival however, Rooney has assumed a deeper role on the
field, allowing his (slightly) more prolific partner to go forward. This, coupled with injury has resulted in Rooney only scoring six goals
so far in comparison to van Persie’s eleven. The golden boot is amongst the
only accolades yet to elude Rooney, but few back him to claim it this season.

Manchester
City’s strike force on paper at least is most likely to challenge van Persie
for the top spot. Sergio Agüero was the third highest scorer last season and if
he can recapture that form and stay fit, he may run van Persie close. After
almost leaving City last season, Carlos Tévez is their most prolific striker so
far this season, and the 2011 joint winner could again be in contention. Edin Džeko is just one league goal behind Tevez, but
is unlikely to become top scorer from the substitute bench. The currently sulking Mario Balotelli is an outside bet for the award.

Emmanuel Adebayor,
out of form and favour at Tottenham, would have to improve dramatically on his
so far underwhelming season to be in contention again, as would last year’s
top-scoring midfielder Clint Dempsey. Jermain Defoe on the other hand has
looked sharp so far, and is perhaps the most likely of those outside Manchester
to take the award.

Newcastle
United’s strike force last year was crucial in their climb to fifth place.
Papiss Cissé scored thirteen in fourteen games at the end of last season, but
has managed just two in the same number of games this year. Demba Ba, who started
last season well but was eclipsed by the arrival of Cissé, will most likely be
Newcastle’s top scorer, but has yet to prove that he can remain consistent for a whole season.

Luis Suarez has
found form at Liverpool, but is literally their only striker, and surely cannot
maintain his solo efforts over a whole season. Fernando Torres is Chelsea’s best
bet, but Rafa Benitez has his work cut out in trying to squeeze goals out of
the underperforming centre forward. Arsenal remain without a natural goal-scorer,
Theo Walcott looking like their most lethal threat this season, but he may leavein January, and as such has not held down a starting position.

Although
we have not yet reached the midway point of the season, baring injury, van
Persie seems the favourite to take home the golden boot for a second time, but
does this have an actual bearing on the league table? In the past ten seasons,
the top scorer’s team has failed to win the league on four occasions. In the
ten before that, it was seven meaning that in just nine out of twenty seasons
the team with the highest scorer has won the league.

Thus,
history shows that a prolific goal-scorer does not always win you the title.
Manchester United would have been much less likely to win in 2008 without the
thirty-one goals from Cristiano Ronaldo, but Thierry Henry was top scorer in
2005 and 2006 and could not stop Chelsea claiming the top spot in either.

The statistics
do suggest however, that having more than one player in the top ten league
scorers vastly increases the likelihood of winning the league. Having proven
goal-scorers amongst your ranks is a must for Premier League success. Out of
the all time top one hundred Premier League goal-scorers, twenty-three are still
playing in the top division. Four of these play for Manchester United, three
for Tottenham, two for each of Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool. None play for
Arsenal. Arsenal did not win the league last year because they over-relied on
van Persie, and did not have enough strength or depth. His departure to United
strengthens an attacking side that only narrowly missed out on the league last
year, and already boast Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Javier Hernández, who chipped
in with nine and ten goals respectively last season. Therefore, though van
Persie could not make the difference at Arsenal, this year he could very well
be the difference for United.