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State Capitol Building, Room 217 • Oklahoma City, OK 73105 • (405) 521-3191 • www.treasurer.ok.gov
A publication of the Office of the State Treasurer • Treasurer Ken Miller, Ph.D.
Economic Report TM
Volume 3, Issue 1 • January 31, 2013
Oklahoma
News and analysis of Oklahoma’s economy
Inside
SEE BUDGET BUSTERS PAGE 3
• Commentary by Speaker of the
House T.W. Shannon: Fighting
the addiction
• General Revenue allocations
top estimate
• Oklahoma adds jobs in
December
• 2012 brought moderated
economic growth
• Coming soon: Oklahoma
Treasury Online Checkbook
Contributor
Regina Birchum, Deputy Treasurer
for Policy
Editor
Tim Allen, Deputy Treasurer for
Communications
Thanks to Washington, uncertainty is the
rule as states begin drafting budgets for
the next fiscal year. With states receiving
from 20 to nearly 50 percent of revenue
from the federal government, the only
certainty is that all possible responses
to the fiscal crisis in D.C. will greatly
impact the states.
The biggest federal issue with local
impact is also the most daunting:
Medicaid. According to the National
Association of State Budget Officers
(NASBO), for fiscal years 2011 and
2012, state budgets grew by about 3.5
percent while Medicaid is projected
to grow by 3.9 percent this fiscal year.
If the pace continues, Medicaid costs
will begin to crowd
out other budget
priorities. Already,
Medicaid has
become the largest
spending category
in state budgets,
surpassing spending
on K-12 education.
In the latest Fiscal
Survey of the States
report issued by
the National Governor’s Association
and NASBO, 21 states anticipate that
general fund revenues for fiscal year
Budget busters
2013 will be lower than 2008’s pre-recessionary
levels.
But even states
with rebounding
revenues are
understandably
proceeding with
caution, rebuilding
emergency funds
and foregoing new
program spending
initiatives.
The recession and
its slow recovery have been challenging
for the states, but it has also highlighted
“The recession and
its slow recovery
have highlighted
long-term
structural fiscal
problems.”
Medicaid Spending Has Grown Dramatically
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
Expenditures (in $ billions)
Annual growth rate (percent)
Medicaid expenditures
Annual growth
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual Projected

State Capitol Building, Room 217 • Oklahoma City, OK 73105 • (405) 521-3191 • www.treasurer.ok.gov
A publication of the Office of the State Treasurer • Treasurer Ken Miller, Ph.D.
Economic Report TM
Volume 3, Issue 1 • January 31, 2013
Oklahoma
News and analysis of Oklahoma’s economy
Inside
SEE BUDGET BUSTERS PAGE 3
• Commentary by Speaker of the
House T.W. Shannon: Fighting
the addiction
• General Revenue allocations
top estimate
• Oklahoma adds jobs in
December
• 2012 brought moderated
economic growth
• Coming soon: Oklahoma
Treasury Online Checkbook
Contributor
Regina Birchum, Deputy Treasurer
for Policy
Editor
Tim Allen, Deputy Treasurer for
Communications
Thanks to Washington, uncertainty is the
rule as states begin drafting budgets for
the next fiscal year. With states receiving
from 20 to nearly 50 percent of revenue
from the federal government, the only
certainty is that all possible responses
to the fiscal crisis in D.C. will greatly
impact the states.
The biggest federal issue with local
impact is also the most daunting:
Medicaid. According to the National
Association of State Budget Officers
(NASBO), for fiscal years 2011 and
2012, state budgets grew by about 3.5
percent while Medicaid is projected
to grow by 3.9 percent this fiscal year.
If the pace continues, Medicaid costs
will begin to crowd
out other budget
priorities. Already,
Medicaid has
become the largest
spending category
in state budgets,
surpassing spending
on K-12 education.
In the latest Fiscal
Survey of the States
report issued by
the National Governor’s Association
and NASBO, 21 states anticipate that
general fund revenues for fiscal year
Budget busters
2013 will be lower than 2008’s pre-recessionary
levels.
But even states
with rebounding
revenues are
understandably
proceeding with
caution, rebuilding
emergency funds
and foregoing new
program spending
initiatives.
The recession and
its slow recovery have been challenging
for the states, but it has also highlighted
“The recession and
its slow recovery
have highlighted
long-term
structural fiscal
problems.”
Medicaid Spending Has Grown Dramatically
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
Expenditures (in $ billions)
Annual growth rate (percent)
Medicaid expenditures
Annual growth
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual Projected