The Riyadh bombings are a powerful message to the US - and Australia - that al-Qaeda is still active, report Marian Wilkinson and Matthew Moore.

Five days before the bombings in Riyadh, the Saudi interior ministry made an uncharacteristic public announcement. Saudi security forces, it said, had engaged in a gun battle with terrorists in the heart of Riyadh.

Inside the terrorists' abandoned car, the security forces found bullets and hand grenades. In the cell's house, the cache was more deadly. Cases containing 377 kilograms of high explosives were discovered, along with AK-47 machine guns, 21 boxes of ammunition and disguises.

The Saudi security forces announced they had "foiled" a serious terrorist attack. But the terrorists had somehow got away. The government released a list of 19 people they said were connected to the plot.

On May 12, teams of terrorists, armed to the teeth, gunned down security guards at three residential compounds in Riyadh and suicide bombers killed at least 34 people - including one Australian - and injured almost 200. Many are now asking whether the Riyadh bombings will act as a wake-up call to the Saudi government, which has been criticised for its lack of co-operation on the terrorism front.

But the Riyadh bombings are also a powerful message to the US and Australia. The war on Iraq and the war on terrorism has not killed off al-Qaeda. Despite the arrest or assassination of about a third of its known leadership, it is still functioning.");document.write("

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Terrorist analyst Dr Zachary Abuza says it was a mistake to believe al-Qaeda's low profile during the Iraq war was a sign of its defeat. "Al-Qaeda is not event-driven. They attack when they have a high probability of success, when they are ready and when the timing is right," said Abuza.

While there have been major successes against al-Qaeda, he said, there had been a rise in the level of "chatter", intelligence interceptions of activity that indicated attacks were being planned. But the organisation is now more difficult to monitor. "It's more dispersed, the leaders are lesser known. They've had to promote mid-level leaders who we don't know. They're on the run. It's harder for them to plan and execute attacks but they can still do it," Abuza said.

In Indonesia, the situation is calmer than it has been for months, with family members of staff at the US and Australian embassies told it is safe to return.

Despite this general improvement, including the recent arrests of 18 more Bali suspects, there have been several incidents that demonstrate JI or an affiliated group remains active.

Indonesia's police chief, Gen Da'I Bachtiar, and Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda criticised the Australian Government when it issued a specific warning to Australians on March 22 about a planned attack in the city of Surabaya the next day, claiming it was unwarranted and damaged Indonesia's reputation.

But Bali police chief Gen Pastika this week confirmed that the Surabaya incident was indeed an attempt by JI to launch another attack. He said in an interview he believed there were as many as 30 JI members with bomb-making skills who were at large and posed a continuing threat.

Last year, Muchyar Yara, then spokesman with Indonesia's intelligence agency BIN, said there were about 270 Indonesians with bomb-making skills learned in Afghanistan. Two recent bombs in Jakarta, one of which injured 10 people, have also raised concerns that Westerners remain targets.

For the experts in Riyadh desperately trying to trace the 19 suspects for that bombing, one name stands out: Abdulrahman Mansour Jabarah, a Canadian Kuwaiti who had been tracked by Western intelligence services for over a year. Jabarah was named in a FBI document circulated to friendly intelligence agents last August. The document was a 50-page summary of the interrogation of his younger brother, Mohammed Mansour Jabarah, an al-Qaeda operative sent to South-East Asia to work with JI. The younger Jabarah worked with JI's operations chief, Hambali, and distributed cash for bombing attacks in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines.

One of the last acts of the younger Jabarah, before his arrest, was to attend a high-level JI meeting in Thailand in mid-January 2002.

According to a chilling account in the FBI report, obtained by The Age, the younger Jabarah told his interrogators: "At that time, Hambali discussed carrying out attacks with his group. His plan was to conduct small bombings in bars, cafes or nightclubs frequented by Westerners in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia.

"Hambali also stated that he had one tonne of explosive in Indonesia. (Jabarah) did not know who would carry out the bombings or when."

Hambali, now on the run, is believed to be the mastermind behind the Bali attack. Neither the US nor the Saudis can yet confirm whether Jabarah's older brother was involved in the bombings in Riyahd.

All that is known so far is that his documents were discovered in the raid where the explosives were found. But the story of the two Jabarah brothers, found in the 50-page FBI report, reveal their involvement with al-Qaeda members going back to Afghanistan. More importantly, it reveals the deadly operational links between al-Qaeda and JI, which still connects a terrorist network from Riyadh to Bali.

A few days before the Riyadh bombings, a senior Bush Administration official spoke to The Age at some length about the continuing strength of JI in South-East Asia. Asked if JI was still operational and targeting foreigners, the official said bluntly: "I think our answer would be yes and yes."

She continued: "We think there are still large numbers of Jemaah Islamiah that are known to us; that are planning activities connected to al-Qaeda, to groups in the Middle East. There are transfers of money and there is clearly an intention, and to a certain extent, a capacity to target foreign interests in the region".

The close links between al-Qaeda and JI were underscored after the arrest in March this year of the al-Qaeda leader believed to be the brains behind the September 11 attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. He is still under interrogation by US intelligence.

"We are learning more and more from him everyday including (about) Jemaah Islamiah," the Bush Administration official said. "We have always felt reasonably confident that Hambali was the operational link between Jemaah Islamiah and al-Qaeda and everything we have learnt has confirmed that understanding."

The al-Qaeda operative being credited with organising the strike on Riyadh is a young Saudi, Khalid Mohamed Musallam Aljahny. But US officials are saying they have no idea if he is a leader or just a foot soldier. What is clear is that US intelligence picked up signals weeks ago that attacks were being planned in Saudi Arabia. There was a suspect explosion in the eastern part of Riyadh on March 18. The concerns climaxed after the gun battle in early May.

The White House has confirmed that days before the bombings, a senior National Security official, Stephen Hadley, went to Riyadh to discuss the terrorist threat. There were also loud complaints from the US Ambassador, Robert Jordan, that despite US warnings, the Saudis failed to increase security around the Western compounds.

Yet the Bush Administration's concerns were kept quiet before the bombings. The triumphant mood in Washington over the quick victory in Iraq took the spotlight off al-Qaeda.

Now, despite all the efforts in the war on terrorism, the US and its allies are bracing themselves for more to come.

- Marian Wilkinson is The Age United States correspondent. Matthew Moore is The Age Indonesia correspondent.