The partial federal government shutdown may so far seem a distant issue to many Arizonans, as Republicans and Democrats in Washington maneuver to find a solution, but some effects are starting to surface.

In one sign of mounting frustration, more Transportation Security Administration workers have called in sick across the nation and in Phoenix, though a spokeswoman for Sky Harbor International said the airport hasn't yet suffered any operational issues.

But the shutdown will be felt more acutely the longer it lasts, and Arizona could take more of the brunt than most states, even as the iconic Grand Canyon continues to welcome visitors. Ominously, President Trump warned Friday that it could last for months — or even years.

That's of particular concern to TSA workers, according to Juan Casarez, president of Local 1250 of the American Federation of Government Employees.

He said the union, which represents 700 TSA workers in Arizona, hasn't sanctioned such action, though he added the employees are growing increasingly concerned about how they will make ends meet without pay if the shutdown continues much longer.

"I'm getting calls daily, hourly, from members wondering what to do next,"Casarez said. "If it goes another few weeks, they will have to start thinking of alternatives" such as finding a second job, he added.

Most TSA employees were paid late last week and haven't yet missed a paycheck. The next scheduled pay date is Jan. 12.

Varying impact by federal agency

The current stoppage began Dec. 22 and, if it lasts for about another week, would become the longest ever. The impasse reflects a budget stalemate over Trump's demand for $5 billion to construct a border wall.

Democrats in Congress oppose that but have proposed alternative measures to fund six of seven remaining federal appropriations bills.

Nationally, more than 380,000 federal employees are off the job in non-paid furlough status, while 420,000 others have been required to work without pay (though Congress has authorized pay retroactively in past shutdowns).

Combined, that reflects more than one-quarter of the roughly 2.9 million people working for the federal government. Most employees in core government functions deemed essential are still on the job, including members of the military, U.S. Postal Service, Border Patrol and TSA, and those supporting the Veterans Administration, Social Security, Medicare. Medicaid and food stamps.

"The Department of Veterans Affairs is fully funded for fiscal year 2019," reads a note on the agency's website. "All VA operations will continue unimpeded."

Conversely, the Internal Revenue Service reportedly is operating on a skeleton staff, raising the possibility that the tax-filing season and refunds could be delayed. Last year, the IRS began processing returns Jan. 29.

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USA TODAY

Arizona's exposure to shutdown

Roughly 55,600 Arizonans work for the federal government in the state, according to the latest tally, for November, by the state's Office of Economic Opportunity.

That works out to just under 2 percent of the 2.94 million payroll jobs in Arizona. State employees, including those in education, are almost twice as numerous, at 96,500 workers. Local-government employees are more numerous still, at 281,000.

But while the raw numbers don't sound massive, Arizona faces a fairly high exposure to the shutdown, should it linger. The state had the 14th most federal employees, according to a 2017 tally by Governing.com that cited Labor Department figures.

California had the most federal workers, 250,000, followed by the District of Columbia, Texas, Virginia and Maryland. Arizona's current count of federal employees is virtually unchanged from 2017.

A report released this week by Wallethub estimates that Arizona ranks 10th in terms of economic exposure to the shutdown. Wallethub looked at several factors beyond federal jobs, including federal contract dollars per capita.

According to this broader definition, the District of Columbia faces the most impact, followed by New Mexico, Maryland, Hawaii and Alaska, Wallethub said.

In Arizona, the Department of Veterans Affairs accounts for the most federal jobs, about 8,700, followed by the Department of Health and Human Services (4,400), the Department of Interior (4,000) and the Department of Agriculture (2,300).

That's in addition to the military presence, including 3,600 in the Army, 3,200 in the Air Force and 1,200 with the Department of Defense.

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Federal worker anxiety at the airport

Jovan Petkovic, a TSA transportation security officer in Phoenix, said that while employees haven't yet missed a paycheck, the government shutdown is a constant topic of conversation at the workplace.

"If the next paycheck isn't there, people wonder how they will feed their kids," said Petkovic, who estimates the vast majority of his co-workers would start feeling financial pain if the shutdown lasts more than a month or so.

"Morale is going down because people are stressed," he said. "It's frustrating for everyone."

Michelle Morris, another TSA transportation security officer, said low morale could be causing people to miss work already. For a Friday morning shiftat Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, only two of six workers in her shift showed up, forcing TSA managers to pull personnel from elsewhere.

Hundreds of TSA employees working without pay called in sick across the nation this week, CNN reported.

Morris hasn't worked through a shutdown before but recounted stories that colleagues would pitch in gasoline money to help co-workers or even bring food to share.

"I'm living paycheck to paycheck," said Morris, who has been on the job less than a year. "I wasn't prepared for this and haven't had a chance to build up (a cash cushion)."

A Buckeye woman who said her husband works for the Border Patrol expressed support for President Trump but also voiced frustration that the president isn't paying federal employees such as those protecting the border.

"I wish (Trump) would exclude Homeland Security from the shutdown," said the woman, who identified herself as Missy E., a mother of two young children. She declined to give her last name out of concern for her family's security.

"We have no idea when we will get paid next, and that’s horrible," she said in an email. "I really hope this shutdown ends soon because bills don’t care if we get paid or not."

Banks, credit unions step in

A few financial institutions are starting to offer relief to federal government employees who have been furloughed or are working without pay. Vantage West Credit Union in Tucson said it will extend payments on existing loans for up to three months, with no service fee.

It also will let members borrow up to $5,000 on new loans and give them 90 days to make the first payment.

The credit union also offered new loans and payment extensions on existing loans to government-employee customers affected during the October 2013 shutdown.

"We’ve seen requests come through from employees of a variety of federal agencies, but the majority are (credit union) members who work for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Prisons," said Andrew Downin, a Vantage West vice president.

Among other examples, Chase said it will automatically waive or refund overdraft and monthly service fees for affected federal-employee customers who directly deposit their salaries into a Chase checking or savings account.

Meanwhile, Credit Union West in Glendale is allowing affected members with mortgages at the credit union to skip a payment at no cost. It's also offering personal loans of up to $6,000 that feature interest rates of 0 percent and no initial payment for 60 days.

In prior shutdowns, federal employees were reimbursed, but some feel it could be different this time.

"Previously, Congress passed laws providing back pay, but with the current administration, that might not happen," Petkovic said. "It still requires a signature from the president."

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Gauging the impact

The federal government has endured several other shutdowns in recent decades, with the longest stretching 21 days from Dec. 16, 1995, to Jan. 6, 1996.

Every week the shutdown persists shaves about 0.1 percent from the nation's Gross Domestic Product, according to a Congressional Research Service analysis of the 2013 shutdown, though some economists argue the impact would be less — at least over the short term.

"Some spending would have been delayed, but not permanently reduced," noted Marc Labonte, a macroeconomic specialist who wrote the Congressional Research Service report on the 2013 shutdown. "For example, furloughed federal employees were paid in full, but late," he wrote.

The number of private-sector employees who were laid off or furloughed as a result of that shutdown isn't known, Labonte added, though unemployment claims "surged."

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that GDP growth was reduced by about 0.3 percent during the 16-day shutdown in 2013 merely from the reduction in hours worked by federal employees.

According to the Office of Management and Budget, additional impacts on the economy would include a halt to certain types of business permits and licenses (such as oil-drilling permits), suspension of IRS income-verification services requested by lenders on loan applications, a halt to federal Small Business Administration loans and disruptions to tourism from the closing of most national parks.

Part of the reason economic-impact analyses are vague is that past shutdowns have lasted just a couple weeks if that. But if the current impasse continues for much longer, the issue will generate a lot more attention.

"If it drags out another month, who's going to come to work?" asked Petkovic of the TSA. "People might literally run out of money to put gas in their vehicles."