China: New US legislation on Hong Kong is mostly symbolic but adds to issues in the trade talks

Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

All Nordic countries are falling short of reaching the green and social targets by 2030. Governance continues to be a strength of Nordics, but green and social investment is crucial for further growth.
21 november 2019: Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

China: Still no trade deal as the talks drag on. Trade diversification and autarky used as a coping strategy

Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Market expectations, recent communication and slowing economy suggests another rate cut sooner rather than later. We change our call and now expect a rate cut in October – but uncertainty still reigns.

Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

We expect a seasonally normal price decline, leaving the CPIF unchanged at 1.5% in August. This would be an outcome in line with the Riksbank’s latest forecast. Underlying inflation would rise by 0.1 p.p. to 1.8%, also in line with the Riksbank’s forecast.

ECB preview: Deeper into the wicked woods

Euro area: Quo Vadis R Star

Demographics and productivity are the main drivers of interest rates in the upcoming decades. Without an increase in potential GDP growth, interest rates will remain low and will have many unwelcome side-effects.

Central Bank Overview

Read the Central Bank Overview, which displays our central bank forecasts as presented in our recent Swedbank Economic Outlook, published on 27 August, 2019. It also includes a calendar for scheduled monetary policy meetings until end-2020.

European Elections May 23-26, 2019

Voters in 28 EU countries will cast their ballots for 753 members of the European Parliament on May 23-26, the only directly elected EU institution. A powerful Eurosceptic and nationalist minority is expected to emerge from the vote, with the pro-European mainstream weakened and fragmented.

Preview: Inflation rose broadly in April - Easter is a wild card

Easter and higher oil price, among others, are helping the CPIF to rise above 2%. Danish and Norwegian CPI bring no news ahead of tomorrow’s Swedish CPI. Weak SEK will sooner or later put a mark on CPI, but timing and magnitude uncertain.

Macro Focus Nordic-Baltic Business Report

All Nordic and Baltic countries are enjoying a remarkably smooth and steady business cycle. The economies remain competitive, but a rise in global protectionism threatens the short-run outlook while structural challenges will hinder growth going forward, especially in the Baltic countries.

Macro Focus ECB update: downside risks and dovishness reiterated

As expected, no changes in monetary policy of forward guidance. Slow growth momentum is expected to last longer, but most recent data gives some relief. Updated macroeconomic projections and more details on TLTRO-III in June.