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Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

"So freaking close to be awesome"? yeah I really want to know what you are drinking or smoking unless "awesome" for you is just to make it to the playoffs.

He was talking about the defense, not the overall team.

You keep taking exception to it when people imply you don't think the defense is any good, but then you turn around and constantly pooh-pooh the defense as anything particularly special. Just what does the defense have to do in your opinion to get to the point where you will acknowledge it isn't just a fluke? Hold teams to 10 points per game? Mesmerize opposing players into throwing the ball into our basket?

BillS

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

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Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Something people haven't talked about is the Pacers possession before the Hill floater. I thought it was a really well designed play, and it did lead to a wide open Hill 3 pointer, which he unfortunately missed.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

You keep taking exception to it when people imply you don't think the defense is any good, but then you turn around and constantly pooh-pooh the defense as anything particularly special. Just what does the defense have to do in your opinion to get to the point where you will acknowledge it isn't just a fluke? Hold teams to 10 points per game? Mesmerize opposing players into throwing the ball into our basket?

I don't get why you get so defensive? I thought Seth was talking about the team in general this is not the first time he talks about the team been almost "awesome" in his eyes.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

By the way I was looking at places were the Lakers can trade Gasol to and Minnesota makes so much sense is not even funny, Gasol + pick for Dwill, Varea and Roy, that could give D'Antoni the athletic power forward that can also shoot the jumper in Dwill plus and nice backup point guard that can also run his system.

For Minny Gasol makes sense because they would finally have a legit center, a front court duo of Love and Gasol could be nice not only that but if Rubio comes back he'll be playing with his country man, Rubio, Luke, AK47, Love and Gasol? no bad.

I don't think that this trade makes any sense at all for Minny. They have a legit Center. He is called Nikola Pekovic. Their front court is great.

They need help in their back court. Badly. And the Lakers cannot provide that.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

My perspective, however, is that the majority of the teams we've played this year have looked similarly "sucky" and have also had open looks that they simply missed. There must be a reason for that. 15 games is getting beyond an aberrance. I want to try to gather some data in support of what might be happening.

Here's an interesting stat.

Opponent non-blocked 2 pt %:

1) Indiana: 47.9%

2) Golden State: 49.4%

3) New York: 49.7%

4) Atlanta: 49.8%

5) Memphis: 49.9%

6) LA Lakers: 50.3%

6) San Antonio: 50.3%

-----

28) Charlotte: 54.2%

29) Cleveland: 55.4%

30) Portland: 56.7%

So, while most teams hold the opposing team at around 50 - 55 % in that statistic category we and Portland are the statistical outliers. We hold them at around 48% (2% lower than the lowest mark) and they hold them at 57% (2% higher than the highest mark).

That points out that teams miss a lot of shots against us that are not blocked. However, it doesn't calculate the amount of a coverage that a shot has received. It just calculates if it has been blocked or not. So, it could mean that we are contesting a lot of our opposition's shots while Portland leaves them open. Or it could mean that we have been quite lucky and the opponent is missing open shots and Portland has been pretty damn unlucky.

Let's also see how we rank in blocks per game and block %.

Blocks per Game:

1) Indiana: 7.4

1) Oklahoma City: 7.4

3) Charlotte: 7.2

3) Utah: 7.2

5) Milwaukee: 7.1

Block %:

1) Milwaukee: 8.9%

2) Indiana: 8.7%

2) Oklahoma City: 8.7%

2) Utah: 8.7%

5) Charlotte: 8.6%

So, we are first in opponents' non-blocked 2 pt%, we are tied for first along with OKC in Blocks per game and we are tied for second along with OKC and Utah in Block %.

Combine those stats together and one can easily see why we're ranked so highly defensively.

However, I still don't have a valid explanation why we're an outlier in opponents' non-blocked 2 pt%.

Let's take a look at some more stats that involve shooting defense.

Opponent Effective Field Goal %:

1) Indiana: 43.5%

2) Chicago: 46.7%

3) OKC: 46.8%

3) San Antonio: 46.8%

5) Atlanta: 46.9%

-------

25) Boston: 50.2%

26) Toronto: 50.3%

27) New Orleans: 51.6%

28) Phoenix: 51.8%

29) Portland: 52.4%

30) Cleveland: 53.4%

In this stat, we can see that most teams (from 2 to 26) allow their opponents an eFG in the ranks of 47 - 50%. We have more negative outliers this time. New Orleans, Phoenix and Portland allow an eFG in the ranks of 51.6 - 52.4% (rougly a 1% difference between the 3 and thus the reason they are grouped up) while Cleveland is the real negative outlier allowing a 53.4% eFG.

On the other hand, the Pacers are a huge positive outlier allowing their opponents a mere eFG of 43.5%. That's 3.2% lower than the second best team in that category (the Bulls) and 9.9% lower than the last team (the Cavs). So, it's not only that we're first in that category. It's the margin that it's astounding.

Opponent Three Point %:

1) Chicago: 30.7%

2) Indiana: 31.2%

3) San Antonio: 31.8%

4) Orlando: 31.9%

5) Golden State: 32.7%

6) Brooklyn: 33.3%

7) Sacramento: 33.5%

8) Minnesota: 34%

---

27) Toronto: 38.3%

28) New York: 38.6%

29) New Orleans: 40%

30) Phoenix: 43.2%

This category does not seem to have many outliers unless you want to consider the top 4 an outlier as they seem to allow 30.5 - 32% while the rest of the teams are in the 33 - 39% range. The sure thing is that New Orleans and Phoenix are negative outliers. Especially, Phoenix is a huge outlier.

In any case, we're still ranked highly in this category. A second place in this category seems great considering Paul's past troubles in chasing his opponent around screens. So, a shout to our perimeter players for this. They seem to be doing a fine job.

Opponent Two Point %:

1) Indiana: 42.6%

2) LA Clippers: 45.1%

2) Denver: 45.1%

4) Atlanta: 45.4%

4) OKC: 45.4%

6) Memphis: 45.5%

7) LA Lakers: 46.1%

8) Utah: 46.2%

9) Minnesota: 46.4%

10) Philadelphia: 46.5%

---

25) Phoenix: 48.2%

26) Sacramento: 48.2%

27) Toronto: 48.2%

28) Boston: 48.3%

29) Portland: 52.4%

30) Cleveland: 53%

This stat is essentially the combination of non-blocked 2pt % and the Block% (since, I don't think that we or any other team in the league blocks a lot of 3 pointers).

Unsurprisingly, we're first with a pretty big margin. We're the clear cut positive outlier with a 2.5% margin from the second best team. Most teams allow a 45 - 48 Two Point % while we allow 42.5%. Once again, Portland and Cleveland are huge negative outliers.

Opponent True Shooting %:

1) Indiana: 95.6%

2) San Antonio: 100.4%

3) Chicago: 100.6%

4) OKC: 100.9%

4) LA Lakers: 100.9%

6) Orlando: 101.3%

---

22) New York: 106.4%

23) Milwaukee: 107.6%

24) Sacramento: 107.8%

25) Boston: 107.9%

26) New Orleans: 108.4%

27) Toronto: 108.6%

28) Phoenix: 109.9%

29) Portland: 111.9%

30) Cleveland: 113.6%

Apparently, TS% produces larger margin as you can see clear jumps between 22 and 23 and also between the last 3 spots compared to the previous ones. The overall image is still the same, though. We're huge positive outliers while Portland and Cleveland are huge negative outliers.

So, that's pretty much it for shooting defense. I didn't feel the need to post the opponent Shooting% because it can be found easily and I don't really see the reason to post Opponent FT% as I don't really find a reason for this stat to exist (seriously, how can a team affect this?).

Let me post some scoring defense categories, though.

Opponent Points in Paint per Game:

1) Indiana: 35.5

2) Milwaukee: 36.2

3) LA Clippers: 37.5

4) Philadelphia: 37.5

5) Washington: 37.7

6) Chicago: 38.7

---

26) Orlando: 42.9

26) Brooklyn: 42.9

28) Boston: 43.2

29) Utah: 45.4

30) Portland: 47.1

Here's another interesting category that we lead. We're positive outlier here while Utah and Portland are negative outliers (Portland is a huge one, actually).

Remember the non-blocked 2pt% category that had us as positive outliers and Portland as negative outliers? Could the answer be it? That simply Portlad is allowing a lot of points in the paint (be it backdoor cuts, lay-ups, dunks or post-ups) while we don't allow a lot of points there?

Even if I'm not sure if the answer for the above question is yes, one thing is for sure. That our interior defense is top notch. So, a shout out to Roy, West (yes, vnzla, West, he still helps even if he has the lateral movement of a turtle), Mahinmi and Tyler. This category is a proof that they are doing an excellent job so far.

Opponent Fastbreak Points per Game:

1) Indiana: 10.1

2) Brooklyn: 11.4

3) Orlando: 11.8

4) Philadelphia: 11.9

4) Detroit: 11.9

4) LA Clippers: 11.9

7) OKC: 12.2

---

23) Sacramento: 14.1

24) Toronto: 14.4

25) Cleveland: 15.5

25) Portland: 15.6

27) Charlotte: 15.8

28) Milwaukee: 15.8

29) Houston: 16.1

30) LA Lakers: 16.5

There are only 2 jumps higher than 1 point in this category. The 1.3 jump between the 1st and 2nd place (us and Brooklyn) and the 1.1 jump between the 24th and 25th place (Toronto and Cleveland).

For whatever reason, we're first in this category despite being 24th in TOs per Game. So, we turn the ball over a lot but somehow we're allowing the less fastbreak points in the league. How do we do that?

Opponent Fastbreak Efficiency:

1) Indiana: 1.206

2) Dallas: 1.362

3) OKC: 1.364

4) Detroit: 1.418

5) Denver: 1.421

---

26) Phoenix: 2.019

27) Milwaukee: 2.081

28) Toronto: 2.130

29) Charlotte: 2.351

30) New York: 2.359

Apparently, we're pretty good in defending the fastbreak as we're positive outliers in one more defensive category. Conversely, Charlotte and (strangely) New York suck at it as they are huge negative outliers.

I'm pretty sure that the athleticism of our wings (PG, Lance, the much-maligned Gerald Green and even Young) has something to do with it. Tyler has probably helped in that category as well since I clearly remember a certain opponent fastbreak in which Tyler caught up with opposing PG (I think it was Tony Parker in the San Antonio game) and blocked his shot at the rim.

All in all, Naptown_Seth is right. Our defense is indeed epic. It's very, very encouranging to me. It shows that if we could make our defense average (because right now it's not even below average, it's abysmal) then we could have a great season. It gives me hope.

To wrap it up, allow me to present you with a bonus category

Fouls per Game:

1) San Antonio: 17.7

2) Atlanta: 18.5

3) Brooklyn: 18.6

4) New York: 18.9

5) Chicago: 19

6) Philadelphia: 19.1

7) Indiana: 19.2

---

27) Golden State: 23.6

28) Sacramento: 23.7

29) Toronto: 23.8

30) LA Clippers: 23.9

Want me to remind you last year's rankings in this category?

1) LA Lakers: 17.2

2) Chicago: 17.5

3) Philadelphia: 17.7

4) Orlando: 17.8

4) San Antonio: 17.8

6) Atlanta: 18

---

27) Clippers: 21.6

28) Indiana: 21.7

28) Utah: 21.7

30) Toronto: 23.2

Last year we were tied with Utah at 28th. This year we are 7th. Fouling less is a big reason why our defensive numbers have skyrocketed.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Epic post, Nuntius. Thanks!

To me, the interesting stats related to # of points in the paint and points on the break.

However, I can't tell from these data whether they're all relative to the low opponent total points per game and the proportionate nature of stats in relation to that, or whether there are specific statistical outliers.

Per the great site you pointed me to, opponents shoot a relatively lower percentage of 3point shots than average against us. However, we might be able to really hone in on something, if we could relate these data to shot distribution data. Something like this:

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Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

That was a very interesting read Nuntius. Being near the bottom in turnovers yet having the best fast break defense is pretty freaking awesome. Remember the days of players whining to the refs after a turnover and not getting back on D? That's not happening much with these guys.

This team is much better than a lot of the board is giving them credit for. Yea the offense is ugly at times, but these guys are bringing it on D. Honestly, I'd rather have a tenacious D than a solid offense, I think the offense is easier to fix as well. If/when we get Danny back things will really come together.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Could it be our opponents miss because they are slightly more tired? Might our grind out the shot clock offense wear teams down?

It might even be simpler than that. It might be simply because they're forcing players away from the basket. Opponents are taking harder shots as a result, and keeping them off the perimeter allows the Pacers to avoid the offset bonus from making a three.

So, the reason it seems like opponents are getting open looks and missing more often, is that the Pacers are encouraging them to shoot unguarded in a part of the court that has the lowest potential of generating scoring value and is simply harder to convert in.

Said in another way: the defense is predicated on extra investments on preventing opponent's high ROI behaviors: like converting a fast break, points in the paint, and three point plays.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

It might even be simpler than that. It might be simply because they're forcing players away from the basket. Opponents are taking harder shots as a result, and keeping them off the perimeter allows the Pacers to avoid the offset bonus from making a three.

So, the reason it seems like opponents are getting open looks and missing more often, is that the Pacers are encouraging them to shoot unguarded in a part of the court that has the lowest potential of generating scoring value and is simply harder to convert in.

Said in another way: the defense is predicated on extra investments on preventing opponent's high ROI behaviors: like converting a fast break, points in the paint, and three point plays.

Also another bonus for picking up Ian. Our 7'2" center goes out of the game, but the paint still doesn't open up because his backup is an athletic 6'11". Kinda scary, but if Granger was our 2nd wing even if our offense was still terrible we would still be generating more TOs and more points because our defense would be even better.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Most teams take the majority of their shots against us as long 2's. Sort this table by attempted 16-23 ft shots, and you'll see that we lead the NBA.

Those are the poorest shots on the floor.

Nice.

Good catch. That's an extremely interesting table, mate

Let's take a look at what goodies this provides us with:

Allowed shots from 16-23 feet:

1) Indiana: 25.9

2) Washington: 24.2

3) Chicago: 24.0

4) Milwaukee: 22.8

5) San Antonio: 22.3

---

28) Miami: 16.8

29) Portland: 16.8

30) New York: 16.7

League average: 19.6

Allowed shots at the rim:

1) Portland: 28.5 (ring any bells from my last post? )

2) Denver: 28.1

3) Charlotte: 27.9

4) Houston: 27.4

5) Miami: 27.4

---

20) Golden State: 24.6

20) Indiana: 24.6

22) San Antonio: 24.5

23) New York: 23.9

24) Chicago: 23.8

24) Sacramento: 23.8

24) Washington: 23.8

27) Minnesota: 23.7

28) Milwaukee: 23.5

29) LA Clippers: 23.4

30) Cleveland: 20.9

League average: 25.6

But here's where it gets weird. Do you see Cleveland in this last spot? It allows more shots at rim than every other team. However, if you remember my earlier post Cleveland was a negative outlier several times. Wanna know why? Because they allow them to shoot 74.6% at the rim thus converting 15.6 of their 20.9 shots.

Indiana, on the other hand, allows them to shoot 59.4% at the rim. That's the second lowest % only behind Denver's 57.3% (league average: 63.7%)

Leading to the following stat.

Made shots at the rim:

1) Indiana: 14.6

1) Minnesota: 14.6

1) San Antonio: 14.6

4) LA Clippers: 14.7

---

28) Dallas: 17.6

29) Boston: 17.8

30) Portland: 19

League average: 16.3

So, not only we force them to take the majority of the shots from 16-23 feet but we make them miss the majority of the shots that they take at the rim. I believe that this should make us extremely happy. Thanks for the find, docpaul

For the sake of completion I'll post our stats in the other categories along with our position in the chart and the league averages:

Shots from 3-9 feet:

Indiana: 3.3 makes (17th), 9.6 allowed (9th), 34.1 FG% (24th)

:League average: 3.5 makes, 9 allowed, 38.6 FG%

We're allowing a bit more shots from that area than the average but we're doing a pretty good job at defending them and thus allow less makes than the average.

Same story. We're allowing a bit more than the average but we're making them shoot below the average thus resulting in less makes.

Let's revisit the shots from 16-23 feet:

Indiana: 9.2 makes (tied for 2nd), 25.9 allowed (1st), 35.6 FG%

League averages: 7.3 makes, 19.6 allowed, 37.5 FG%

As noted, we allow a lot more shots than the average and that also results in more makes for the opposition. However, we're allowing a lower FG% than the league average so we're still doing a good job here.

Three point shots:

Indiana: 5.6 makes (tied for 29th, so essentially 30th), 17.2 attempts (tied for 27th along with 2 other teams, so essentially 29th), 48.5 eFG% (28th, I have no idea why they are posting the eFG% and not the FG%, though)

League average: 7 makes, 19.8 allowed, 53.3 eFG%

We're clearly a lot lower in every category than the league average. We're doing a good job in preventing and defending 3 point opportunities.

So, there you have it, folks. Our defense does a damn good job.

Once again, thanks for the find, docpaul

PS: Should we morph those finds into a seperate thread? Maybe a thread that explains statistically what our defense is doing and keeps track of it?

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Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Been sayin' it all year, our defense so far has been epic --- and we're not even going 100% yet. You all know that this team can take it up several notches come playoff time. We're also beasts in blocks and rebounds. All we gotta do is shore up some semblance of an offense, which we've been making baby strides in lately, and this team is going to be very, very tough.

There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

Re: Pacers/Lakers postgame

Kobe had 40 and they still lost. Lakers are not as good as expected. Pacers have to defend the guards better though.

He had 40 on 43% shooter, so it isn't like he just went off on us. He got his 40 by chucking his way to it. Most of them were well contested shots that he just made with a hand in his face. The only way to better defend that is to get a steal or block. Not something I would complain about, but also not necessarily something I would call realistic. For the most part the only people taking wide open shots aid the people you are ok with taking wide open shots because they aren't good shooters, or in the case of Artest consistently good.