Here is the initial projection of newly named Tropical Storm Danny. The Hurricane Center will be following the development and forecast track of this storm as it churns north the next forty-eight hours. I’ll leave the expert predictions to the specialist of NOAA.

Note how the cone of confidence fans out along the time line. I oftened wondered if meteorologists in the Midwest could fashion the same technique for projecting the path and intensity of winter storms. When I was in the National Weather Service we couldn’t quite come up with a uniformed strategy for defining categories of snow storms.

About the blogger

Craig Edwards began his forecasting career with the National Weather Service in 1972 and served for 15 years as the chief meteorologist in the Twin Cities for NOAA, retiring in 2006. He’s been the game day meteorologist for the Minnesota Twins since baseball moved outdoors at Target Field in 2010. Edwards is author of “Nature’s Messenger” and a speaker on climate change in Minnesota.

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I would question the value in that type of prediction for winter storms in the midwest. With a 5-day cone all you are seeing is the probability of the “eye” or storm center being at a certain place on a certain time. What would the measure be for a winter storm in the midwest? Would we simply track the center of the low pressure system as it comes through? That would hardly do justice to what the effects of a winter storm are, because the effects vary widely depending on where you are. The low pressure center may be centered near the Twin Cities, but the effects may be freezing rain in Albert Lea and blizzard conditions near Duluth. Seems that a broad system like they use for hurricanes would leave the local population wanting for something more relevant to their situation.

Craig

That’s why it never happened. The goal at one point was to try and give a rating to a winter storm as it was expected to evolve. there was also some thought has to how to indicate a confidence level. Left it with simply Winter Storm Watch. Currently NOAA issues pop graphics for potential for a particular snowfall totat, i.e. 4, 8, 12 inches.