Sunday, January 25, 2015

In a recent Pew Research report,
Millennials (those born in 1981 up to the beginning of the new millennium) will
overtake Baby Boomers (those born from 1945 to 1965, generally) as the nation’s
largest living generation. And, to quote
a famous line drummed into history about the baby boomers, the torch is finally
being passed to a new generation.

There is no doubt that the Millennials’ rise, as a techno-savvy,
diverse, and highly educated generation,
will impact the nation in a variety of ways, most notably through its politics.
Some doubt the real impact of Millennials, however; Philip
Bump, writing for the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, says that Millennials
won’t matter very much in American politics until they get older.

But in North Carolina, at least, the impact of the
Millennial generation is being felt in the pool of potential voters, but not in
the composition of voters casting ballots—at least, not yet.

In the database of registered North Carolina voters from the
NC State Board of Elections and matching up records of those who cast ballots
with their basic demographic information, the most interesting trend since 2000
has been the growing percentage of Millennials in the registered voter pool.

Since the beginning of the 21st Century, North Carolina voters
in the Millennial generation have gone from 2 percent of the registered voter
pool to 26 percent in 2014, while Baby Boomers have seen their proportion of
the pool shrink from 45 percent down to 32 percent over the same time period.

The past trends suggest that between presidential elections in North Carolina,
the percentage of the pool of registered Millennial voters increases 8 percent,
with the percentage of the pool increasing 2 percent between presidential and
mid-term election years. If these trends hold, then Millennial registered
voters will go from 24 percent in 2012 to 32 percent in 2016, matching that year’s
likely proportion of Baby Boomers in the state's eligible voter pool.

With nearly a third of the registered voters and many of
them maturing into political participation, Millennials will begin to impact
the state’s politics; and, in fact, they already are.

Among Millennial voters, as of the end of 2014, 37 percent
are registered Democrats, 37 percent are registered unaffiliated, and only a
quarter of Millennial voters are registered Republican.This may be one of the early demographic
warning signs that some Republicans have been concerned about.

But as Bump noted, in the past two presidential and mid-term
elections, Millennials have not shown up at comparable levels to their
registration percentages.

In both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, 68 percent
and 55 percent of Millennials cast ballots; however, in comparison, all other generations had higher
percentages showing up, with Baby Boomers at 84 percent and 78 percent in 2008
and 2012, respectively.

With the lower turnout rates, Millennials were only 13 and 19 percent in the 2008 and 2012 electorates, respectively,
while Baby Boomers were 39 and 43 percent of the presidential elections.This isn’t unheard of, since younger voters,
no matter the generation, typically do not show up at the ballot box until they
hold steady jobs, have families, and are more grounded in the economic and
political system.

So while the Millennial generation’s overall numbers are
signaling the critical shift in voter registration, that is the first sign of
their growing level of importance. Whether one party, or both, recognizes the
future wave of Millennials coming through the political system and respond will
be the key test to see how much their generation begins to shape not just North
Carolina, but the nation as a whole.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Here are some random thoughts on the US and NC elections prior to the polls closing at 7:30 (in the Old North State).

1. NC's US Senate Race could be a nail-bitter throughout the night.

The term 'constantly consistent' could be used to describe how the contest between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis has been since the early summer. The polls leading up to today have shown a race within the bounds of margins of error:

Based on the mid-term election fundamentals in North Carolina, this should be (by all accounts) a lean-GOP seat this year, but I think the level of polarization and competitiveness that North Carolina experiences in presidential years has bled over into mid-term years (more on both the lean-GOP and competitiveness in a moment).

The result is that most predictions are for a pure toss-up among those analysts (Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg) who use a variety of quantitative and qualitative measures, while the 'modeling' folks (538, Washington Post, HuffPost) are more likely to show a lean-Hagan tilt to the race.

It is still up in the air as to whether the U.S. Senate will need the N.C. race to determine whether the GOP claims control of the upper chamber of Congress or not. My thinking right now: there are many pathways (and a few obstacles) that the GOP can have to claim the 6 additional seats to capture majority control of the Senate. Both North Carolina and New Hampshire are probably more "canary in the coalmine" indicates of how the GOP may fare: if NC and NH remain in Democratic hands, then the Republicans will need some combination of red-states, such as Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana (most likely to go to run-off) and then one competitive purple state, say Iowa or Colorado, to make their numbers work--combined with holding both Georgia and Kansas, two states they probably hadn't bet on contesting.

2. Do we continue to see a polarized electorate?

Based on research from the 2012's general election by the American National Election Study, the traditional electorate looks something like this in a presidential year:

Granted, this isn't a presidential election year, so mid-term electorates generally become more Republican, more white, and older in comparison.

But when it comes to the polarization effect, the classification that one identifies with has a strong connection to one's voting behavior.

Between strong partisans to leaning-independents, the likelihood is that they will vote for their party 85 to 99 percent of the time. Only "pure independents"--usually less than 15 percent of the national electorate--are the swing voters.

And here in North Carolina, we see a similar, albeit more "center-right" when it comes to independent voters, in voting behavior:

So we have an idea of how these voters will behavior when they show up--that's the next big question, though.

3. Who Shows Up?

In North Carolina, the lean-GOP factor in mid-terms are quite noticeable. Granted, the rise of North Carolina's unaffiliated voters has been quite dramatic over the past few election cycles:

But the question remains: do unaffiliated voters show up at the same rate as partisan registered voters?

With the marked boxes of the past two mid-term elections (2006 and 2010), registered unaffiliated voters don't show at the same level of partisan registered voters.

What this tells us is that the electorate, in past mid-terms in North Carolina, should lean to the right, in comparison to the pool of eligible, registered voters overall.

So, what might we see this year in terms of an electorate? Well, since we already have some votes cast (1.1M+ in early ballots), we see something that may appear "out of the ordinary" when it comes to mid-terms in the Old North State:

Registered Democrats are 48 percent of the early in person ballots that came in with 7 reduced days, while registered Republicans were 32 percent and registered unaffiliated voters were 20 percent. This is much more in line with a presidential year percentage basis of early in person ballots than a mid-term electorate, which is typically 45 D/37 R/18 U.

Among those 2014 voters who cast in person early ballots and how they voted in 2010:

The notable thing is that one third of registered unaffiliated voters and one quarter of registered Democrats did not participate in 2010, either by not being registered, not living in the state, or simply not voting.

4. But even if these folks do show up to cast ballots, will they have anything in North Carolina beyond a competitive U.S. Senate race?

Not likely.

Nationally, the percentage of competitive U.S. House of Representative races has declined substantially, to basically a hand-full of races that aren't in one camp or the other.

In North Carolina, we mirror that trend with 13 non-competitive congressional districts, and with only one flipping tonight due to the current incumbent (Democrat Mike McIntyre in the 7th) not running for re-election.

This is due partly to redistricting and gerrymandering, and due partly to voters becoming locked into voting for their party candidates both at the top and going down the ballot.

This impacts even the North Carolina General Assembly, with the connection between how a legislative district voted for Obama and how the district voted for the Democratic legislative candidate.

So, in the end, the predictions I would make are the following:

Republicans retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republicans gain majority control of the U.S. Senate, but the pathway there is unclear. I suspect Alaska, Arkansas, and Colorado flip to make the 51 needed, and there may be some other states that flip as well--most likely Iowa, Louisiana (in a December run-off). If Kansas goes independent, then the GOP needs Georgia, either tonight or in January, to build on the numbers.

North Carolina's Senate race may come down to a 2-3 percent margin of victory; right now, it seems like it could stay Democratic, but no bets as it is a coin-toss.

Republicans continue to have majority control of both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly: biggest question is, can Democrats break the 3/5 supermajority to crack the veto-override numbers in one or the other? If Democrats can, slight favor to doing so in the House rather than the Senate.

With GOP control of Congress, expect more partisan gridlock between both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And it won't be just in Congress as well--one of the key questions out of the National American Election Studies from 2012 was a question, "is there anything you like about the Democratic or Republican parties?" Sorting by partisanship and identification, you get this:

Partisans love their party, don't like the opposition, and even independent leaners are mirror images of each other. Pure independents--well, a 'pox on both parties' is best to describe them.

Oh, and one other prediction: we won't get through Wednesday before someone asks "so what about 2016's presidential election?"

Monday, November 3, 2014

We've seen a slight revision in the numbers of NC early votes coming in today right before the big day on Tuesday.

The early ballots--civilian mail-in, military mail-in, in person one-stop, and overseas mail-in--are 1,191,162, with the vast majority--1,097,563--come in via in person one-stop balloting.

Of these 1.19 million ballots, 1,155,666 have been accepted and recorded as votes for tomorrow's election, with 35,496 ballots remaining outstanding that could come in via mail or in-person, due to sick or disabled voters having until 5 PM Monday to return request (corrected) their ballots.

So we will probably see some further slight movement, especially with mail-in ballots coming in over the next few days.

As of today's numbers regarding those who have cast early in person ballots, the composition of the electorate remains the same as we've seen over the past few days:

Cumulatively, registered Democrats are 48.5 percent of the ballots cast via in person early voting, registered Republicans are 31.1 percent of the ballots cast, and registered unaffiliated/Libertarian voters are 20.4 percent of the early ballots cast in person.

These numbers are all significantly above 2010's numbers, which may be due to the competitive nature of the U.S. Senate race, the anger and resulting mobilization of Democrats against the GOP's state government, and the influence of $100 million into the state's airwaves.

For registered Democrats, they saw an additional 106,000 voters cast early in person ballots, registered unaffiliated voters saw 192,000 more voters, and registered Republicans saw 16,000 more voters than in the last mid-term election.

While these total numbers of in person early ballots doesn't match the 2012 presidential year numbers, the proportion of this electorate is more similar to a presidential year than a traditional mid-term year in North Carolina.

The key, though, is that this year's mid-term election isn't anything like 2006 or 2010 in North Carolina, so we may have to deal with a new ballgame when it comes to 2014.

White voters are 71 percent of the in person early ballots cast, while black voters are 26 percent of these same ballots. That is a closer ratio to a presidential year performance than the 2010 performance by racial groups.

Among the party registration and how these 2014 in person early voters participated in the 2010 mid-term elections:

The key here is the significant plurality of registered unaffiliated voters (33 percent) and registered Democrats (25 percent) who did not participate (either due to the fact that they weren't in the state, weren't registered, or simply didn't vote) in 2010.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

We have the final totals for the vast majority of early votes coming in for North Carolina's general election; a small number of mail-in ballots will continue to trickle in, but the numbers point to a substantial turnout by North Carolina voters through the early voting period.

Of all ballots requested:

Overall, using both the mail-in requests (including those ballots that have been requested and those returned and accepted so far) and the in-person early voting method, North Carolina has the potential of seeing 1,192,190 votes cast before Tuesday's election.

Of all ballots accepted as votes:

Out of this 1.19 million votes cast, 1,155,131 ballots (both by mail-in and in-person) have been accepted as votes for Tuesday's election counting, with the following breakdowns by the different methods of balloting:

Among these accepted mail-in and in-person ballots:

registered Democrats are 47.6 percent

registered Republicans are 31.9 percent

registered Unaffiliated voters are 20.3 percent

Women are 54.2 percent

White voters are 71.6 percent

Black voters are 25.0 percent

Of all accepted ballots that were cast in-person:

Out of the accepted ballots that were cast in-person by North Carolinians, 1,097,560 have been recorded for votes on Tuesday. This represents 121 percent of the 2010 numbers on the last day of early in-person voting in 2010. The cumulative totals for these accepted in-person early votes are:

registered Democratic voters cast 48.5 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 532,026 ballots, representing 125 percent of the final day Democratic totals in 2010

registered Republican voters cast 31.1 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 341,523 ballots, representing 105 percent of the final day Republican totals in 2010

registered Unaffiliated & Libertarian voters cast 20.4 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 224,011 ballots, representing 145 percent of the final day unaffiliated/Libertarian totals in 2010.

The trend line in comparing the daily cumulative totals of in-person accepted ballots against the numbers in 2010, as measured by the days out from the election, show the sizable performance of registered Democrats and registered Unaffiliated voters over their numbers from four years ago:

Finally, the voters who have participated in this year's in-person early voting and comparing their voting behavior in 2010's mid-term election shows a significant number of registered Unaffiliated and Democratic voters showing up who didn't cast ballots four years ago:

Additional Analysis (as of 2 PM):

In looking at the voters who were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in the mid-term four years ago, but did show up to cast an early ballot this year, we see some interesting numbers that could give us a clue on the ground game and interest level among the different groups of voters.

Among these 75,616 voters who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in 2010:

40,986 are registered Democrats, representing 54 percent of these voters

17,892 are registered Republicans, representing 24 percent of these voters

Among registered Democrats who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered in 2010 but didn't vote in that year's mid-term election, 54 percent are black voters, with 42 percent white. Among registered unaffiliated voters, 77 percent are white, while 14 percent are black voters.

Additional Analysis (as of 5 PM):

Among the 2014 NC in-person early voters who were registered in 2010 but didn't vote that year, fifty percent of these voters were in twelve counties (in order of the largest number of total voters): Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth, Buncombe, Gaston, Durham, Union, Iredell, Pitt, and Catawba counties.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

North Carolina has reached over a million accepted ballots (or votes) cast before Election Day, through the combination of mail-in and in-person early voting.

So far, 1,045,295 ballots (corrected) have been accepted as early votes through the two early voting methods (both mail-in and in-person). There is currently another 41,047 mail-in and 479 in-person ballots that have not been accepted as early votes.

Among the cumulative 991,945 in-person accepted ballots cast so far:

48.5 percent are from registered Democrats

31.2 percent are from registered Republicans

20.2 percent are from registered Unaffiliated voters

54.2 percent are from female voters

71.3 percent are from white voters

25.4 percent are from black voters

Among the 158,270 accepted in-person ballots cast on Friday, October 31:

47.1 percent were from registered Democrats

32.0 percent were from registered Republicans

20.7 percent were from registered unaffiliated voters

55.3 percent were from female voters

70.2 percent were from white voters

26.0 percent were from black voters

In comparing the same-day cumulative totals of accepted in-person ballots to the 2010 mid-term election:

total cumulative accepted in-person ballots are running at 120 percent of the total same-day number from 2010

registered unaffiliated voters are running at 142 percent of their total same-day number from 2010

registered Democratic voters are running at 124 percent of their total same-day number from 2010

registered Republican voters are running at 103 percent of their total same-day number from 2010

Of the 2014 voters who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far, a majority of registered Republicans used the same voting method four years ago, while significant pluralities of registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters used the same voting method. What is interesting is a significant plurality of registered unaffiliated voters who did not participate in 2010's mid-term elections (whether they were not in the state, not registered, or didn't cast a ballot):

Finally, I looked at the 'regionalism' of the accepted in-person early votes cast so far in 2014. Much has been made about how the division in North Carolina partisan politics has taken on the urban vs. rural tint. So far, among the accepted in-person early ballots cast, 37 percent are coming from urban counties, 19 percent from suburban counties, and 44 percent are from rural counties. This is a typical regional breakdown within the state for a general election.

Among the three types of counties, in looking at the party registration within each area, we find the following breakdowns:

Within the urban counties of North Carolina, 54 percent the ballots are coming from registered Democrats, 26 percent from registered Republicans, and 20 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

One of the key things to consider is the division between urban and rural Democrats: urban Democrats tend to be more liberal than their rural counterparts (in fact, there is still the generation of rural North Carolina Democrats who are generally more conservative and, in all actuality, vote Republican in the voting booth).

Among just registered Democrats who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far, urban Democrats are 41 percent and rural Democrats are 42 percent, with suburban Democrats only 17 percent.

With today (Saturday, November 1) being the last day of the in-person early voting period, we will see if we can reach the 1 million mark in terms of accepted in-person early votes. The weather may play some influence, especially in the western mountains that tend to be more Republican in nature.

More analysis will be posted later today and on Sunday about the final numbers posted for accepted, in-person early balloting.

Friday, October 31, 2014

With today's and Saturday's early voting, North Carolina will finish up the process leading into next Tuesday's election. And with the numbers we are seeing in accepted early ballots, we may be seeing a different kind of electorate than what we saw in the last mid-term election.

As of Thursday, a total of 926,451 early ballots were submitted, either by in-person (90 percent) or via mail (10 percent). This represents nearly a third of the almost 2.7 million ballots that were cast in the state's 2010 mid-term election.

Of the 831,665 accepted in-person early ballots submitted across the state so far:

accepted in-person early ballots from registered Democrats are 48.7 percent

accepted in-person early ballots from registered Republicans are 31 percent

accepted in-person early ballots from registered Unaffiliated and Libertarian voters are 20.1 percent

women are 54 percent

white voters are 72 percent

black voters are 25 percent

If we compare the same-day total to 2010's same-day total, this year's numbers are 119 percent from where they were four years ago. Registered Republicans have finally caught up to their 2010 numbers, with two days to go in early ballots; however, ballots from unaffiliated voters are 140 percent of where they were four years ago, and Democratic ballots are 125 percent of where they were in 2010.

For yesterday's daily totals of accepted in-person early ballots:

Ballots from registered Democratic voters was 47 percent

Ballots from registered Republicans was 32 percent

Ballots from registered unaffiliated voters was 20 percent

Women cast 56 percent of the ballots yesterday

Whites cast 72 percent of the ballots

Blacks cast 25 percent of the ballots

The trend line comparison shows the increase of both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters having surpassed the same-day totals from four years ago, with the GOP finally catching up to their numbers:

Of the voters who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far and how they participated in the 2010 mid-term election:

Finally, I looked at the racial composition of the voters who have submitted in-person early ballots and how they voted in 2010's mid-term election:

What is striking is the increase in both white unaffiliated/Libertarians and black Democrats who did not vote in 2010 but have cast in-person early ballots this year. This will be important to see how this mix of non-2010 voters may have some impact on this year's electorate and ultimate voting.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

North Carolina's early voting continues its march ahead of where the state was four years in the last mid-term election; among all early voting methods (in-person and mail-in balloting), 731,251 ballots have been accepted for November 4th's election.

Among those accepted in-person early ballots, 689,682 votes have cast, equal to 115 percent of the same day total in 2010. Among these cumulative accepted in-person ballots cast:

registered Democrats are 49 percent

registered Republicans are 30.8 percent

registered Unaffiliated voters are 20 percent

Women are 54 percent

White voters are 72 percent

Black voters are 25 percent

Among the 129,842 ballots that were cast in-person on Wednesday, October 29:

registered Democrats were 48 percent

registered Republicans were 32 percent

registered Unaffiliated voters were 20 percent

Women were 55 percent

White voters were 72 percent

Black voters were 25 percent

In comparing the trend lines of this year's accepted in-person early ballots against the same day totals in 2010:

Registered Democrats are 122 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers

Registered Unaffiliated voters are 135 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers

Registered Republicans are 95 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers

Of the voters who have cast in-person early ballots so far, a slim plurality among party voters used the same voting method four years ago:

What again is notable is that 30 percent of registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters (Libertarians being a very small percentage of that number) did not participate in the 2010 election, due to not voting, or not being registered, or not living in the state.

With three more days of in-person early voting left in North Carolina, the shortened time period for early voting seems not to have caused an issue, with Democrats and, surprisingly, unaffiliated voters taking advantage of this period before Election Day.

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It's All @ The Bow Tie

A respected image consultant once said that the average person who wears a bow tie is distrusted by all. What all bow tie wearers know is that an average person would never be wearing a bow tie in the first place.