The invasion of parliament happened after it failed to approve a full new cabinet (despite replacing some minor ministers on April 26th), within Mr Sadr's latest unilateral deadline. Parliament did not reach quorum given the non-attendance by rebel MPs linked to the former prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who are trying to bring down Mr Abadi, as well as by Kurdish MPs and Mr Sadr's own representatives. Parliament was suspended until May 10th, given an upcoming Shia religious festival.

The storming of parliament provided an inauspicious backdrop to the visit to Baghdad by the US vice-president, Joe Biden, on April 28th, which was aimed at overcoming the political barriers to a new cabinet. After parliament failed to muster a quorum, Mr Sadr's supporters surged over police barricades and into the Green Zone, home to many government buildings and embassies, and thence to the parliament building. The breach was largely peaceful, with Mr Sadr's own Peace Brigades militia working to ensure protesters were unarmed. Initially, the protesters appeared determined to stay—leading the prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, to order their arrest—but they eventually departed on May 2nd (albeit vowing to return if their demands are not met).

There is a risk, however, that Mr Sadr's power-play could spark intra-Shia violence between his supporters and Iranian-backed militias. At this point it is unclear how the stalemate over appointing a new cabinet can be resolved, and the internal tensions could distract resources from the war against Islamic State (IS; which claimed a bombing in the predominately Shia southern city of Samawah on May 1st, in which 33 people were killed).

Impact on the forecast

The Iraqi political scene continues to degenerate. However, with the US and Iran keen for the situation to be resolved—and for the Iraqi government to refocus its efforts on combating IS—at this stage we continue to expect Mr Abadi to remain as prime minister, and a messy compromise to be forged over the cabinet.