Updated: April 24th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning. Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process. You can then move on to Part III and then to Part II before continuing below. An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

#16 – Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Ravens have been desperate for a WR1 for what feels like a decade. Sadly, I don’t think free agent signing Michael Crabtree is the answer nor are there are any true standout WR prospects in the class. Despite my criticism, I believe that Ridley is the best of the bunch. Aside from a solid 40 yard dash, Ridley mostly hurt his stock at the combine. I previously had him as a Top 10 player but have dropped him because of lingering doubts. Ridley is quick, shows good hands and is an excellent route runner. When I watch him on film he just pops, damn the stats or the combine results. I’m less convinced about his chance to become a team’s WR1 now than I was a year ago but I still think he can be a productive NFL receiver.

#15 – Cardinals – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Denzel Ward at #15 is an absolute steal. In real life, I believe Ward will go higher because some team will either trade their pick to a team looking for a corner or some team will just go BPA and snag him. He very likely could go a spot earlier to Green Bay but instead I have him falling to the Cardinals. Unfortunately for the Cards, none of the top quarterbacks have made it this far so they’ll be the ones to go BPA and take Ward. While researching Ward, I came across a telling stat: opposing quarterbacks completed just 32% of their passes when targeting Ward. He had a very positive combine to go with the tape. He tied for the fastest 40 yard dash by a corner (4.32), had the longest broad jump and the second highest vertical.

#14 – Packers – Derwin James, S, Florida State

James started the year in Top 5 consideration with Minkah Fitzpatrick but slipped a bit during a disappointing season for the Seminoles. Long time starting safety Morgan Burnett is gone to the Steelers so Green Bay has a vacancy in their defensive backfield. James excels in run support and near the line of scrimmage which would fit perfectly with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at free safety. The Packers did draft a safety last year in the second round, Josh Jones, but I don’t think that would be enough to make them pass on James. Even though he and the team struggled at times, James still put up good totals (84 tackles and 2 INTs) in his comeback season from 2016’s knee injury. Corner may be a more immediate need for the Packers but something about Derwin James in Green Bay felt right.

#13 – Redskins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Redskins need a NT for their 3-4 scheme and there is none better in this class than Vita Vea. He has refrigerator like size: 6’4″ and 347lbs. He ran a 5.10 which sounds slow since we’re so conditioned to the times for RBs and WRs so let me put it into context. Since 2010, he ran the second fastest of any defensive lineman 345lbs or more. The only player faster was Dontari Poe who went 11th overall to the Chiefs in 2012. Vea’s stat line isn’t overwhelming (43 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks in 2017) but that’s because you can’t measure his impact with the boxscore. Lining him up alongside 2017 first rounder Jonathan Allen will create a stellar one-two punch for years to come.

#12 – Bills – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

In my preview of Lamar Jackson this offseason, I comped him to then Bills QB Tyrod Taylor so it’s ironic that I have him landing here after Taylor’s trade to the Browns. Jackson is an incredible runner as we all know. There was rumors that he should switch to WR but that was ridiculous – he’s a good quarterback. He may have a smaller frame than you would want from a run-first QB but he played 38 games in college and is not injury prone like the narrative suggests. Could he sustain a freak, season-ending injury? Of course, just ask Tom Brady. Jackson’s accuracy needs to improve to truly make it in the NFL (57% career completion percentage). I think he will start his career as an inefficient, big-play-waiting-to-happen type of quarterback. It’ll come down to the timing of those big plays. One last thought, can you imagine Lamar Jackson and LeSean McCoy running the read option together? My god.

#11 – Dolphins – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have said that Smith would be the first linebacker off the board. Fast forward to April and Tremaine Edmunds has leapfrogged him but the Dolphins would still be getting a Pro Bowl caliber player here. Smith is slightly faster than Edmunds (4.51 vs 4.54) but is smaller at 6’1″ and 236lbs. Over his final three games, under the brightest of spotlights in the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff, Smith totaled 37 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Pairing Smith with returners Kiko Alonso and Cameron Wake, the newly acquired Robert Quinn, and a hopefully-healthy Raekwon McMillan would give the Dolphins a fearsome front seven.

#10 – Raiders – Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame

Much like how I picked Nelson for the 49ers to help protect their big money quarterback, I have done the same for the Raiders with McGlinchey. Incumbent LT Donald Penn is 34 years old and coming off a season-ending foot injury in 2017 which could cause him to miss some offseason time. Penn also has a huge roster bonus due in 2019, the last year of his deal, so I’ll bet that the Raiders are planning to move on from him regardless of his injury status. The Raiders offensive line was already a strength of the team (they allowed just 24 sacks, tied for third best in the league) but adding somebody like McGlinchey would solidify the position long term.

#9 – 49ers – Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

I was surprised to see that Nelson didn’t fit anywhere earlier for me. He’s probably a Top 5 talent but teams rarely draft a guard that high. A guard has only been taken this high four times since 1985 (coincidentally, twice in 2015; one of which is the much maligned Ereck Flowers from the Giants). Nelson has some fantastic highlights and I love watching them whenever they show up on my Twitter timeline. I’m not convinced the 49ers truly need to draft a guard this high but I figured that they just invested a ton of money in Jimmy Garappolo so they might as well add a piece to protect that investment.

#8 – Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Tremaine Edmunds has climbed up draft boards since the start of 2017 and finds himself at #8 in my mock now. He ran very well at the combine (4.54) and has fantastic size as well (6’5″ and 253lbs). He was very productive in 2017: 108 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Pair that production with his size and speed and you have a can’t miss linebacker. He will feature as an ILB in the Bears 3-4 defense but because of his speed and explosiveness, he can get to the quarterback too so he’ll have value as a situational pass rusher as well.

#7 – Bucs – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Tampa has thus far only re-signed one of their four free agent DBs, and have not signed any from other teams, signaling to me that it is a position they plan to target in the NFL Draft. What better player to target than Fitzpatrick who played both CB and S at Alabama. He likely factors more as a safety in the NFL but could see time as a strong nickel. Depending on the matchup, I would expect to see him in shadow coverage against a dominant tight end. Fitzpatrick struggled through a hamstring injury in 2017 but still managed to play 13 games. Don’t overthink it.

#6 – Colts – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State

Before the Colts traded the #3 pick to the Jets, Chubb was a common pick for them in mock drafts. The fact that the Colts traded back, adding multiple second round picks, and still land Chubb is awesome. Chubb put together back-to-back seasons with at least 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. He finished the year as the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year and a consensus All-American. Like Barkley, he’s a better player than his draft slot would lead you to believe.

#5 – Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The Broncos traded QB Trevor Siemian and signed journeyman Case Keenum in free agency. Keenum is 30 years old and his deal is only for two years so they’ve created a perfect situation to bring in a project QB like Allen. Keenum can start in 2018 and possibly even into 2019 if necessary. Allen’s accuracy issues are well documented and I am personally not a fan because of them. Many who know more than I, however, think he has the tools to be a star in the league. Coming in behind an established veteran would be the best thing for Allen’s future prospects.

#4 – Browns – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Barkley is possibly the best true football player in the class, at worst he’s second to Bradley Chubb. However, the quarterback run and general hesitance to draft running backs high lowers Barkley’s stock. He’s an absolute stud and will be a fantasy monster from Day One. He has an uncommon combination of size and speed and is a great receiver. He did struggle at times in 2017 as a runner but when he did, he made up for it in the passing game. If the Browns do go the direction I have planned for them, they would end up with a formidable offense in 2018.

#3 – Jets – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The run on quarterbacks continues! I have read a lot of Mayfield/Jets connections in the last few months and when there is smoke, there is fire. Mayfield is hyper-accurate and just plain hyper. His personality has undoubtedly taken him off some teams’ draft boards but I would want him on my team. My favorite part of the Senior Bowl might have been watching Mayfield on the sideline. It was a non-competitive all-star game but there he was living and dying with each play, hyping up teammates and helping his fellow quarterbacks. The only thing that makes me question this pick is the fact that the Jets brought in Teddy Bridgewater. I have never been a Bridgewater fan so I still think the Jets should go for a QB here.

#2 – Giants – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I have previously compared Rosen to Giants QB Eli Manning so this seems like a great fit. In my opinion, Rosen is the most NFL ready quarterback of this class. He does have injuries in his past and some like to question his “love for the game” but that’s not factoring into my analysis. He’s a prototypical pocket passer who will have a long NFL career. It’s not often that you get a chance to draft a franchise quarterback so the Giants need to just make this pick and stop pretending that Manning is anything more than a stopgap option at this point in his career.

#1 – Browns – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I don’t believe that Darnold is the best quarterback of this class, but I do think that he will be the first overall pick. Darnold is a confident passer which results in turnovers just as often as it does spectacular plays. He has an ability to extend the play with athleticism in the pocket and he is a team leader and motivator. I noticed that he has a long throwing motion which worries me and might be the explanation for the high number of interceptions (the window closes before he actually gets rid of the ball) and the fumbles (because the ball dips so low, it’s a target for rushing defenders). He has a high ceiling but also has a low floor – a high risk, high reward pick.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.