Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Jack Latvala

January 22, 2018

LATVALA DONATIONS....Five years ago in the immediate aftermath of the Allied Veterans of the World charity gambling scandal, the Republican Party of Florida donated $300,000 to a veterans charity. That was the same amount that Allied Veterans had given the state party. The party made the move after the arrests of dozens of people connected to Allied Veterans and the resignation of then-Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll. (Carroll was never charged with any wrongdoing and in the end no one did any lengthy jail time in connection with the incident.)

But times have changed.

Republican Party of Florida chairman Blaise Ingoglia says that his party will not return - or offset with a charitable donation - the money that the party has received from a political committee controlled by former State Sen. Jack Latvala. Latvala resigned after a investigation concluded there was probable cause that he had engaged in sexual misconduct. Latvala has denied any wrongdoing, but the matter has been turned over to state law-enforcement authorities.

Latvala's political committee has donated $190,000 since late 2015 - and gave $100,000 in the final quarter of 2017. It's been well-documented that the party isn't raising as much money as it used to because Gov. Rick Scott and Senate Republicans have their own fundraising organizations now. Latvala himself promised to help the party out amid those reports.

In an interview, Ingoglia says that money from Latvala has already been spent or budgeted by the party. But he also argues that it will be .put to good use by the party.

"I would say that the money being used in the Republican Party coffers, helping to get Republicans elected and putting the infrastructure in place for 2018 is probably a better use for the money,'' Ingoglia said.

Campaign records show that Bittel during his time as chairman gave more than $212,000 to the party. In the months ahead of the 2016 election, Bittel also donated $150,000.

OFFICE FOR SALE...One of Tallahassee's most influential lobbying firms - Ballard Partners - recently moved from a historic home on Park Avenue to a brand new office building located at the corner of Park and Monroe Street.

Property records show that Ballard's old offices was bought for $1.35 million by Rubus Idaeus LLC. That's a company that was set up by Tallahassee attorneys Tor Friedman and Eric Abrahamsen. The firm, which has moved into the old Ballard Partners office, handles criminal defense cases, employment law, and personal injury cases.

The roster of attorneys at the firm also includes Tiffany Cruz, who has been in the news lately because she is representing Rachel Perrin Rogers, the Senate employee who filed a formal complaint against Latvala that led to his resignation.

The firm is also representing Farhan "Ronny" Armed - one of the victims at the 2014 shooting at Florida State University who was paralyzed as a result- in a lawsuit against the FSU Board of Trustees. The lawsuit that was filed last year contends that FSU was negligent in providing security.

Kathryn Ballard is a member of the FSU trustees and is married to well-known lobbyist Brian Ballard who runs Ballard Partners. Property records show that both Kathryn and Brian Ballard were listed as co-owners of the office building that was acquired by Rubus Idaeus.

WAITING FOR THE NUMBERS....For the third time this decade, Florida legislators are holding their annual legislative session in January.

One of the prime reasons for the move was that legislators said they liked being able to spend spring break with their children instead of spending it in the halls of the state Capitol.

This year, however, the timing is causing a bit of a potential hiccup.

House and Senate budget writers are having to start work on a new 2018-19 budget without the latest estimates on tax collections. That's because state economists have pushed back the date of their annual estimating conference until Feb. 9th, the fifth week of session.

Amy Baker, one of the main economists, said the reason is primarily due to Hurricane Irma. Irma ripped through the state in September and was responsible for nearly 100 deaths and caused widespread devastation.

Baker explained that sales tax collection data received by the economists generally has a lag in it. So the economists are waiting for a new round of data that will be released Jan. 25th that will show December tax collections, but in reality is more an accurate reflection of November sales.

If economists had scheduled their conference earlier, it was "too close to the hurricane to be useful to us." Baker said that the additional month gives economists "cleanly into the recovery period." The House and Senate agreed to the change, but in order to keep the session on schedule they will begin work on new budgets prior to getting the updated numbers.

This could create a scenario where budget negotiators have to change the budget during the conference period where House and Senate legislators work out differences.

But Sen. Rob Bradley, the Senate budget chief, last week said he was not concerned that the new numbers would show big changes from the previous forecast.

January 09, 2018

Here we are again: Following a year that included a civil war among Republicans that sparked a special session and ended with a sexual misconduct scandal that scuttled the political career of Sen. Jack Latvala the GOP-controlled Legislature returns to Tallahassee for what could be another bumpy ride.

In no particular order, here are the five biggest questions of the 2018 session.

The House was not immune from drama either as one Democratic House member resigned amid an investigation into her residency. Other GOP House members quit as well, citing the top-down management style of House Speaker Richard Corcoran.

The question remains: Are there more secrets to spill out into the open from the confines of the members-only Governors Club and the other places in Tallahassee that normally remain hidden from public view?

There is a constant buzz of rumors and innuendo and whispered allegations that this legislator is next, or that other relationships will be exposed to scrutiny. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement continues to investigate Latvala over an allegation uncovered by the Senate investigation that suggests he may offered legislative action in exchange for sexual favors. (For his part, Latvala continues to deny wrongdoing.)

Then there's the fear that Latvala - who continues to sit on a large amount of cash into political accounts he controls - will proceed to use that money to go after those who came after him. There is an expectation that the entire scandal will eventually lead to lawsuits where even more secrets could be exposed.

This constant fear of drama feeds into an uneasy atmosphere that now hangs over Tallahassee because those that run this town don't like their secrets getting out.

2. Will political ambitions interfere with a smooth session? In many election years, there is a tendency for sessions to run quickly and smoothly as legislators head to the exits in order to raise money for looming campaigns.

This year may not be the norm.

Gov. Rick Scott, of course, is expected to run for U.S. Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is running for governor. Corcoran is expected to run for governor. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for a full four-year term after Scott appointed him to the post last year. There are legislators seeking to replace Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The question is how whether these colliding campaigns will spill into the legislative arena and derail things.

One important thing to remember - Corcoran can't raise money during session, but his power could wane once the 2018 session is wrapped up and a budget is on Scott's desk. That means some special interests may stop giving him money once everything is finished.

So any type of blow-up, anything that could prevent legislators from passing a budget could theoretically help him. Here's the thought: Session is earlier this year, so in reality legislators could pass a budget in early May and it would not cause any disruption.

Under this theory, legislators adjourn for several weeks - meaning the cash could resume flowing into campaign accounts.

That's not saying it would happen, but there are several issues, including whether or not to use a rise in local property taxes to pay for schools, that could easily trigger a standoff and at the time help those seeking higher office.

3. Does Gov. Rick Scott have an easier time getting the Legislature to help him this year?

During his entire time in office the multi-millionaire businessman has had a topsy turvy with members of his own party. The governor even today likes to remind people that when he ran for governor in 2010 no one in the GOP establishment endorsed him. During an interview just last week, Scott noted that Corcoran was expected to run this year and added - "It's a totally different race from mine. Everyone had endorsed my opponent."

Last year amid a struggle over Scott's push for economic incentives and money for Visit Florida the governor went after House Republicans. He aired television ads and he visited legislators districts where he called them out by name for failing to vote with him.

After reaching a deal with Corcoran last summer that resulted in a final budget deal, his fellow Republicans have been much respectful. A recent video posted on the House website was effusive with praise about Scott's handling of Hurricane Irma.

Still Scott's agenda isn't an easy sell. His budget recommendations are viewed as too optimistic and don't reflect the state's tightening financial situation. His push to rely on a rise in local property values to help pay for a hike in school funding has already been declared dead on arrival by Corcoran. Business interests were disappointed that Scott's tax cut package was aimed directly at consumers.

In 2014, then House Speaker Will Weatherford helped muscle through legislation that helped Scott in his re-election year. But that is an eternity ago. Since then Scott has stopped raising money for the Republican Party of Florida and there has been a string of blow-ups. Do legislators remember? Or do they decide in the end they need to help the governor?

A lot of time and energy will be spent this session on special interest battles, but probably some of the most substantive policy issues will be the education measures being pursued by legislative leaders.

Last year Negron pursued a substantive higher education overhaul that contained a major boost in college scholarships for the state's highest performing students. Scott vetoed it, citing concerns from college presidents and others who didn't like some of the restrictions on institutions that used to be called community colleges.

The proposals are back this year (although right now in separate bills) and the Senate has expanded the financial aid portion even further. The legislation dealing with the state college system continues to draw flak from college presidents. (Reminder - the state university system and state college system operate totally separate. They are funded differently and controlled by different entities. They do not work in tandem. The two have had back and forth tug-of-war for years and calls to have a cohesive system has been sidestepped and ignored.)

Some House Republicans have already begun to raise questions about the higher education proposals. One possible scenario is that the House trades approval for Senate approval of House priorities, including a new voucher proposal pushed by Corcoran that would allow students who are bullied to transfer to a private school. The bigger question is whether Scott - who has had his own clashes with universities - will ultimately go along with the revamped proposal.

5. Will local governments lose even more control this year?

For years, the GOP-controlled Legislature has railed against Washington D.C. and the mandates placed on states by the federal government. Yet at the same time there has been fight after fight in the halls of the state Capitol over whether to block local governments from all sorts of regulations ranging from the use of plastic bags to lawn fertilizer.

Corcoran last year argued that the Legislature is the closest to the people and that's why it has a legitimate role in providing oversight over local affairs and blocking local governments from taking certain actions.

This session will likely be consumed with a series of skirmishes in this same arena, starting with the House bill to go after "sanctuary cities" that do not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. (It's been noted that right now no cities in Florida fit this description.) The House is expected to pass the bill later week.

There are bills filed dealing with everything from local tree ordinances to regulation of short-term rentals to more oversight for local tourism councils and a ban on the use of tax money for pro stadiums.

May 08, 2017

Separated by a couple of hundred yards, a scene played out on Friday night that in a brief few moments captured the essence of the entire 2017 session of the Florida Legislature.

At one end Senate President Joe Negron made his case for why Republican Gov. Rick Scott should look favorably on the new state budget crafted by the GOP-controlled Legislature (and which will be voted on this Monday.)

Negron's logic was even though Scott didn't get what he want the Senate was always on his side. Senators backed Scott's request for money for business incentives and to fully fund Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing agency. They just couldn't get the House to go along.

"On the Senate side the track record speaks for itself ,'' Negron told reporters. 'We've been a strong ally in the Senate of the governor and his priorities.'

Contrast that to House Speaker Richard Corcoranwho took a much more confrontational position toward the governor. (A governor by the way who has criss-crossed the state blasting GOP legislators and even running ads critical of legislators.)

'There's a war going on for the soul of the party,'' Corcoran said. "Are we going to be who we say we are?"

To Corcoran this "war" means opposing business incentives, or "corporate welfare' as he called them in the past. And in his brief session with reporters he also mentioned politicians who campaign saying they want to crack down on illegal immigration and are opposed to "the liberal socialistic health care policy called Obamacare" but then change their position when they get into office.

Without using his name directly, it was clear that Corcoran was taking aim at Scott, who flipped on Medicaid expansion (part of Obamacare) in his run-up to his re-election campaign and who ran in 2010 promising to take a hard line against immigration but then in 2014 signed a bill that extended in-tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants. (Corcoran voted against the bill even though it was strongly supported by then-House Speaker Will Weatherford.)

"I think what we need to do is elect leaders who say what they mean and mean what they say,'' said Corcoran, who maintains he has yet to make up his mind on whether he plans to run for governor next year.

Corcoran also predicted to reporters that he thought the House and Senate had the votes to hand Scott his first veto override if the governor does indeed veto the entire budget. (This requires a two-thirds vote of both chambers, which means Democrats will have to go along.)

His exchange with reporters showed that Corcoran - who talked before session of turning on the lights and finding the "cockroaches" that the Scott administration had allowed to flourish during six years in office - finishing the 60-day session with the same provocative, confrontational stance he had before it started.

Given everything that has happened over the last two months of the session it's not really surprising.

Along the way he pushed back against anyone - whether they were in media, his own party, or whomever - who challenged his statements or positions. Sometimes he did it in a lawyerly fashion (such as complaints about transparency weren't valid because the media focused on just one part and not the totality of the changes he pushed.)

But other times it was through sheer force.

He used the budget negotiations (largely behind closed doors) and Negron's own top priority to create a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee to get the Senate to take up a proposed constitutional amendment that would expand Florida's homestead exemption. Corcoran was able to get the Senate to move quickly on this proposal even though it languished most of the session and was opposed by Sen. Jack Latvala, the Senate budget chief.

Corcoran also used his power in less visible, but still effective fashion (like shutting down session for long stretches in the final days when the pressure builds to act.) It has been argued that his crackdown on lobbyists before session and the requirements about increased disclosure were more about giving him the speaker a clearer idea of where lobbyists may be taking aim at his agenda.

And on Day 60 Corcoran got the Senate to sign off on a nearly 300-page overhaul of education policy (some of it never seen in public before) that will also be taken up Monday on the final day of session. Corcoran used the budget conference process to place all this policy into two "conforming" bills (bills that change state law to conform to the budget) even though some elements of the legislation weren't ever included in the budget conference. He also got policy changes for Visit Florida included in a bill that initially just dealt with a "displaced homemakers" program.

Corcoran wasn't apologetic for the move, saying instead that the bill (HB 7069) and which includes his "Schools of Hope" proposal to shift students in low-performing schools over to charter schools was some of the "boldest most transformational" change ever and would even rival former Gov. JebBush's A+ plan that put in place the state's entire school grading system.

The setbacks for Corcoran were few: His push for major ethics reform and judicial term limits were never taken seriously in the Senate. There's an argument that despite his pre-session warnings to avoid them that there were plenty of special interest fights . Witness the drawn-out battle over the so-called "Whiskey and Wheaties bill" - which would allow grocery stores to eventually sell hard liquor - as one example. (Corcoran, who appeared to take a strong interest in the measure, maintains his backing of that bill was about free-market principles.)

But of course the question is whether Corcoran's victory dance is premature.

Because at this point it's unclear what Scott will do and whether he will use his own considerable power against the House speaker.

This past week Corcoran and his top allies let it be known that they had offered Scott a deal where they would have relented in a couple of places and funded a couple of his priorities: Visit Florida as well as money for repairs to the Herbert Hoover dike surrounding Lake Okeechobee.

That Scott's people rejected the deal isn't that hard to explain. As explained by those close to Scott, the governor didn't deliver a long list of demands to state legislators this year so it shouldn't be too hard to get the handful of things he asked for.

Of course there remains the chance there will be a few more chess moves before ultimately the Corcoran vs. Scott drama plays itself out.

Corcoran and Negron could refuse to immediately deliver the budget to Scott, meaning that the governor - and the Legislature - would have less time to act as the state moves closer to the end of the fiscal year on June 30. There's nothing in state law that mandates when the Legislature has to deliver the budget to Scott's desk. So theoretically the Legislature could hand it over a week ahead of time.

Yet in one way the two legislative leaders have given Scott an easier path to a budget veto.

The main general appropriations act is $82.4 billion, but it doesn't include many key elements. Legislators have placed more than $700 million worth of spending for Negron's Lake Okeechobee plan, Schools of Hope, Visit Florida and the state employee pay raise OUTSIDE the main budget bill.

This means Scott can sign some of the bills important to the Senate (where it may be easier to sustain a veto) while at the same time vetoing the budget and any other bills important to the House.

Of course if Scott does veto the entire budget (a rare occurrence in recent Florida history) then we get to watch Round 2 between the speaker and the governor.

March 27, 2017

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion. This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE: If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.)

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

March 19, 2017

It's no secret that Sen. Jack Latvala - the Pinellas County Republican who is now the Senate budget chief - has had up and down relationships with a lot of people in the political process, including the current governor.

But Latvala (shown here campaigning for Gov. Rick Scott in 2014) is now becoming more and more aligned with Scott in his ongoing feud with House Republicans over the fate of the state's tourism marketing program and the state's economic development agency.

Latvala has already sounded off that he does not agree with the House approach - which is to completely eliminate Enterprise Florida and place tight restrictions on Visit Florida. This ongoing disagreement threatens to prevent the GOP-controlled Legislature from passing a new state budget.

But it was still a tad surprising to see Scott - caught on camera last week - showering Latvala with effusive praise. (Assuming this was doing during Scott's visit to the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association.)

"If we're going to win this year, it's because of Sen Jack Latvala,'' Scott said. "He's going to stand with us all the way through. And he’s going to take a lot of arrows for doing it. I’m going to tell you he’s got broad shoulders and he can do it."

Contrast that from just one day earlier where during an event held at a Tallahassee manufacturing plant Scott castigated Republican State. Rep. Halsey Beshears, a Monticello Republican, while praising two Tallahassee Democrats for voting against the House bills that target Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida. It's been part of a Scott strategy in recent weeks to call-out House Republican members by name in front of local television cameras.

Regardless of the philosophical debate underlying business incentives and aiding corporations and whether it helps create jobs - a debate that unites House Republicans with progressive Democrats - the real story playing out amid this feud is that Florida's Republican structure is deeply divided and there's no signs that's going to change anytime soon.

Other governors have had their differences with members of their own party - i.e. then-Gov. Jeb Bush in a fierce struggle with Senate Republicans over medical malpractice laws - but Bush wasn't running political ads that went after legislators responsible for helping him carry out his agenda. Nor was Bush refusing to raise money to help the Republican Party of Florida. (Note - Scott stopped raising money for the RPOF ahead of the 2016 elections - leaving that task primarily to House Republicans including House Speaker Richard Corcoran.)

But that's where we are now.

And this rift is already having reverberations as we head into the 2018 elections still seemingly so far away.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - who has his own share of dust-ups with Scott - was by Scott's side this week as Scott held a public rally in the Capitol where he again criticized the House approach. Putnam is of course seen as a likely candidate for governor, but the speculation has been that Scott wants someone else to follow him into the governor's mansion. (As in someone with a business background...) Despite all that, Putnam was with Scott this week.

So now we have two potential candidates for governor - Latvala and Putnam - sticking up for the governor, while another potential candidate for governor - Corcoran - is not.

Of course one could say, what does it matter?

Scott will likely run for U.S. Senate and has been known to avoid getting involved in primaries. Yeah, but...Scott has a good relationship with President Donald Trump. Scott is also now in a leadership position with the Republican Governors Association, the entity responsible for helping Republicans across the nation. Scott polls well among GOP voters in the state and if he chose to get involved in a primary it could have an impact.

Corcoran in the end could decide not to run for governor, or he could mount a fierce campaign from the right where he goes after Putnam and others as being part of the corrupt process he says now controls Tallahassee.

But before all that happens - we will have to see who - in the words of Gov. Scott will "win" the debate over Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida.

Legislative staff and lawyers drew up a "base map" that has already riled some because of the way it divides Sarasota and Leon counties. U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown responded by going to federal court and asking a judge to block the state from changing her district from one that stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando to one that runs across the northern end of the state to west of Gadsden County. Brown asserts that changes would adversely impact minority voting rights and run afoul of federal law.

If adopted the plan could alter and end the Congressional careers of U.S. Reps. Gwen Graham and Dan Webster while resurrecting Charlie Crist yet again.

But there are a lot of signs that any efforts to make serious changes to this map may be quickly rebuffed by the GOP leaders in charge of the Legislature.

Take for example the rules rolled out for the session.

No lawmaker can propose just altering part of the map - they must introduce a entire new plan.

Additionally, in an effort to deal with any potential charges of partisan influence SenatePresident Andy Gardiner and House Speaker Steve Crisafulli will require that anyone who offers an amendment to be prepared to identify anyone who had a hand in it as well as "be able to provide a non-partisan and incumbent-neutral justification for the proposed configuration of each district, to explain in detail the results of any functional analysis performed to ensure that the ability of minorities to elect the candidates of their choice is not diminished, and to explain how the proposal satisfies all of the constitutional and statutory criteria applicable to a Congressional redistricting plan."

In other words not an easy task.

"We don’t have the know-how in terms of creating maps, we’re not map experts," said House Democratic Leader Mark Pafford. "And I don’t know if anybody really knows where to begin."

Sen. Jeff Clemons added that he expects most senators to move with caution because of the proscriptive nature of the July ruling from the Florida Supreme Court. It was that ruling, which not only threw out the current congressional map, but included specific suggestions such as reconfiguring Brown's district from a North-South configuration to one that runs East to West.

Sen. Bill Galvano, the top Republican guiding the redistricting efforts in the Senate, contends that the rules were not intended to dissuade anyone from offering up changes.

"We want to make sure we have a full record and that the reasons for amendments or proposals within the map are clear, delineated and on the record,'' Galvano said.

He also said it would be wrong to assume that the "base map" won't be fully discussed and vetted. Galvano added that he expects legislators to need all 12-days that have been set aside for the session.

But the political reality is that many legislators don't have a vested interest in what happens to these congressional districts.

Yes, it's true that the new map could lead to a shrinking of the GOP advantage in the Florida delegation.

But the real showdown in the Legislature isn't during this upcoming session - it's the special session planned for late October

That session _ when lawmakers will be forced to redraw the Senate districts _ will much more wide open. To begin with: While the state Supreme Court gives great insight to how the high court thinks about some of the logic used by the Legislature for congressional districts there's still wiggle room left for the state Senate seats.

"These congressional maps are going to be a good opportunity to learn what's important in relation to drawing the Senate maps,'' Clemons said.

And as had been reported elsewhere putting all 40 seats in play during a presidential year could tip the balance of what happens in the unresolved battle between Sen. Jack Latvala and Sen. Joe Negron for the 2017-18 Senate presidency.

That could prompt the Florida House to use its leverage especially since there are rumblings that there is still a divide between the leaders of the two chambers.

It wasn't by accident that the settlement over the lawsuit against the Senate included wording that absolved the House of any wrongdoing and placed all blame on the Senate GOP leaders. There's probably no way that the House leaders would have accepted the settlement without that crucial acknowledgement.

Of course the "Fair Districts" amendment prevents drawing lines to aid incumbents or people of a particular political party. But that won't stop all 160 legislators from being able to look at the maps themselves and reach their own private conclusions about what the political fallout will mean if certain configurations are adopted.

The lawsuit filed in Pensacola aims to wipe out the amendment as it has been interpreted by the state Supreme Court because it violates free speech rights guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. It won't impact this special session, but if a judge issues an injunction by October that blocks state officials from relying on the Fair Districts amendment, it could really shake up that special session. (Worth noting: The lawyer who is working on this case used to be the general counsel for the Florida House.)

He's not sure how that will proceed. First all, he notes that Brown is asking the court to block a new congressional district that has yet to be adopted. But he adds that while the federal Voting Rights Act does aim to protect the rights of local populations to choose a representative of their choosing there can still be multiple ways to meet the goal. Right now the "base map" keeps Brown's district with a black voting age population of 45 percent - down slightly from the existing 48 percent in the district.

"The Voting Rights Act does not force Florida to choose one over the other,'' Levitt said.

So where does that mean? It means that the next 12 days are just the pre-season to the real contest - and political infighting - that may lay ahead in the fall.

July 08, 2015

We are now six months into the second term of Gov. Rick Scott _ and a nearly as much time into the new reality that greets Republicans in the state.

This Friday will mark an important milestone since Scott, the Republican Party of Florida and Senate Republicans went their separate ways back in January.

On Friday, the RPOF and the affiliated committee associated with the Senate will post their second quarter numbers.

It's this report - followed by the third quarter one in early October - that may give an accurate picture of just how serious the fallout has been over the last few months.

As everyone knows Republican Party activists rejected Leslie Dougher, Scott's hand-picked selection for party chairman. In anticipation of the schism, party leaders loyal to Scott and Senate Republicans transferred large amounts of money into separate fundraising accounts.

Since that time Scott's Let's Get to Work political committee has kept a fairly robust fundraising _ and spending regimen. It was the entity that helped put together Scott's well-attended presidential summit in Orlando and spent money on television ads touting Scott's agenda. But that's money not heading into the coffers of the party which is now headed up by Rep. Blaise Ingoglia.

Meanwhile, this year's legislative session went haywire due to a dispute over health care, which resulted in a special session to pass a new budget and caused an even larger split between Scott and some GOPers.

Scott's fundraising reports show that in cash alone he has raised nearly $2.1 million during the year. This doesn't include the $580,000 that was transferred from party accounts shortly before Ingoglia took over or the more than $250,000 that Disney donated for travel, food and beverages associated with the summit that the governor held at the start of June.

Big donors so far this year to Scott include committees linked to the state's two big business lobbying groups, Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Chamber of Commerce as well as hedge fund investor and now real estate developer Jeff Vinik.

The Senate campaign efforts, meanwhile, have been in flux because of the still-unsettled battle between Sens. JoeNegron and Jack Latvala for president. In late June, current Senate President Andy Gardiner tapped Sen. Bill Galvano to lead the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Gardiner's move was apparently aimed at telegraphing to potentially nervous donors and backers that the Latvala-Negron contest was not going to derail ongoing efforts to maintain the Republican majority in the Senate.

And Galvano wasted little time in showing his commitment that the committee has money.

Records show that Galvano had his own political committee - Innovate Florida - hand over a $250,000 check to the Senate committee on June 24.

Galvano's donation is apparently aimed at stemming anxiety that donors may have that the tug-of-war between Latvala and Negron would have on the overall effort to help Senate incumbents during an upcoming presidential year.

So far this calendar year Latvala's political committee Florida Leadership Committee has hauled in more than $800,000 - including more than $70,000 in the month of June (despite a special session which limited contributions.)

Negron's Treasure Coast Alliance has raised just a tad over $1 million in 2015, with most of that happening in the month of May. The group collected $25,000 during the month of June.

The records for the Treasure Coast Alliance show that so far it has given $5,000 to the Republican Senate committee this year, while Latvala's political committee has not donated anything.

But if you do the math there's at least $4 million during the first half of 2015 that did not go to the RPOF and instead has gone into other accounts that are largely controlled by individual Republicans.

The 2016 elections are still a ways off, but it will be worth watching the run-up to the crucial presidential election to see what kind of resources the state party has available, and conversely how much money and organization the national party and national campaigns will have to expend in the state because of the current set -up.