Scouts and general managers are paid to evaluate the individual talents of these players, but there is another way to look at risk assessment in a more general sense: Which positions pay the most dividends in the NFL draft?

We studied 15 years of first-round picks -- 1989 through 2003 -- and analyzed the success (or failure) of each player, ultimately determining a "bust percentage" for each position.

Our conclusion: drafting Russell is riskier than drafting Johnson ... and much riskier than drafting potential a stalwart left tackle like Thomas.

Let's start with draft history for the most important position on the field.

We've set the bar at 80 games played in the league, plus a positive TD/INT ratio. Obviously, a Pro Bowl appearance or Super Bowl win (see Trent Dilfer) will help us overlook transgressions in other areas. And for recently drafted players, we'll use a combination of stats accrued to this point and gut feelings about the player.

Not a bad way to start the study, with a Hall of Famer, a player who, after a rocky start, went on to win three Super Bowls and become the face of the Dallas Cowboys.

1990

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Colts

1

Jeff George, Illinois

136

154/113

0

No

Lions

7

Andre Ware, Houston

14

5/8

0

Yes

Woof. George never performed to the level of a the No. 1 overall pick, either on or off the field, and 1989 Heisman Trophy-winning Ware was perhaps the first "system quarterback" problem, coming out of Houston's run-and-shoot. You can't call George a bust, based on the criteria, but it's tempting.

1991

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Seahawks

16

Dan McGwire, San Diego State

13

2/6

0

Yes

Raiders

24

Todd Marinovich, USC

8

8/9

0

Yes

McGwire was tall and Marinovich could bench press 225 pounds by the time he was in first grade. They played a grand total of 21 games between them.

1992

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Bengals

6

David Klingler, Houston

33

16/21

0

Yes

Broncos

25

Tommy Maddox, UCLA

8

48/54

0

Yes

After putting up astronomical Ware-like numbers in college, University of Houston product Klingler flopped similarly in his stint with the Bengals. Maddox didn't do much with Denver, but resurrected his NFL career after playing in the ill-fated XFL. Why did the Broncos draft Maddox? There was a pretty good quarterback named Elway still in Denver.

1993

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Patriots

1

Drew Bledsoe, Washington State

194

251/206

4

No

Seahawks

2

Rick Mirer, Notre Dame

82

50/76

0

Yes

Mirer was named Rookie of the Year by many publications (2,833 passing yards), but regressed, while Bledsoe went on to enjoy a solid career. Compared to other years though, 1993 was just a very weak draft at almost every position.

1994

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Redskins

3

Heath Shuler, Tennessee

29

15/33

0

Yes

Bucs

6

Trent Dilfer, Fresno State

124

106/117

1

No

Dilfer's name became synonymous with the term "game manager," while Shuler, who had a 2:1 INT/TD ratio, is now a North Carolina congressman. Neither performed up to his college billing, but Dilfer hammered out a respectable career, collecting a Super Bowl ring and a Pro Bowl appearance.

1995

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Oilers

3

Steve McNair, Alcorn State

158

172/114

2

No

Panthers

5

Kerry Collins, Penn State

156

174/172

1

No

McNair was a true franchise quarterback and Collins has been solid throughout most of his career, going to the Pro Bowl in '96 and quarterbacking the Giants to a Super Bowl.

1997

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

49ers

26

Jim Druckenmiller, Virginia Tech

8

1/4

0

Yes

Remember when scouts fell in love with Druckenmiller's size and arm strength before the '97 draft? He played eight NFL games and completed 21 passes in his career.

1998

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Colts

1

Peyton Manning, Tennessee

144

275/139

7

No

Chargers

2

Ryan Leaf, Washington State

26

14/36

0

Yes

This was the arms race to end all arms races, with the debate over Manning versus Leaf providing top-notch water-cooler banter for months. Leaf flamed out hard, and Manning put the finishing touches on his legacy with a Super Bowl ring. Seahawks starter Matt Hasselbeck was a sixth-round pick by Green Bay.

1999

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Browns

1

Tim Couch, Kentucky

62

64/67

0

Yes

Eagles

2

Donovan McNabb, Syracuse

104

152/72

5

No

Bengals

3

Akili Smith, Oregon

21

5/13

0

Yes

Vikings

11

Daunte Culpepper, Central Florida

85

137/89

3

No

Bears

12

Cade McNown, UCLA

25

16/19

0

Yes

The McNabb selection was roundly dissed by Philly faithful, but the player they wanted, Ricky Williams, is currently leading yoga sessions at a strip mall near you. Couch, Smith, and McNown were colossal busts. Though Couch, in his defense, had the added problem of playing on some famously talentless teams during Cleveland's "expansion" years.

2000

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Jets

18

Chad Pennington, Marshall

61

72/46

0

No

The oft-injured Pennington has had a solid career, but the most heralded quarterbacks in this class -- Tom Brady and Marc Bulger -- came out of Round 6.

2001

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Falcons

1

Michael Vick, Virginia Tech

74

71/52

3

No

I might be tempted to call Vick a bust, but doing so might lead me to being duct-taped and thrown into the trunk of Roger Goodell's car. That said, the numbers say he's safe, but it's also safe to say he's been a disappointment for a player with such high expectations. For comparison's sake, Drew Brees went in Round 2, and LaDainian Tomlinson, selected four spots after Vick, is carving out a Hall of Fame career.

2002

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Texans

1

David Carr, Fresno State

76

59/65

0

Yes

Lions

3

Joey Harrington, Oregon

70

72/77

0

Yes

Redskins

32

Patrick Ramsey, Tulane

37

34/29

0

Yes

After interviewing Harrington in Lions camp his rookie year, I predicted he would go to multiple Pro Bowls, and with his easygoing, articulate manner would soon rule the world in a Tom Brady-type way. How very wrong I was. Ramsey just got released by his second team, and Carr has spent most of his career on the ground. This is where it gets dicey though, as the jury is still out on Carr and, to a lesser extent, Harrington. I'll affix the bust label, but with the caveat that it might have as much to do with their horrible teams as with their play.

2003

Team

Pick

Player, School

Games

TD/INT

Pro Bowls

Bust?

Bengals

1

Carson Palmer, USC

46

78/43

2

No

Jaguars

7

Byron Leftwich, Marshall

46

51/36

0

No

Ravens

19

Kyle Boller, California

41

36/34

0

Yes

Bears

22

Rex Grossman, Florida

24

27/26

0

No

Palmer is a star, Grossman is erratic, but a Super Bowl starter, and Leftwich has had his moments in Jacksonville. Boller, though he snuck over the TD/INT metric, looks like a bust, due to the fact that he has been relegated to backup duty.

Conclusions
If history tells us anything, either Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell will be an abject failure at the next level. And it seemed like our metrics -- games played and TD/INT ratio -- were pretty accurate. To survive in the league at QB, you must make wise decisions with the football. To thrive, like many of our multiple Pro Bowl QBs, a 2/1 TD/INT ratio is standard.

But thriving is in no way a given, with quarterback grading out as our riskiest offensive skill position. The Lions (Ware, Harrington), Seahawks (McGwire, Mirer) and Bengals (Klingler, Smith) each had two busts in the study cycle, and the Lions, yet again, find themselves in need of a signal-caller. Buyer beware.

Ted Kluck is not a scientist, rather he is the author of three books, including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) and a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL) where he was, without a doubt, a bust.