In this paper we discuss recent developments in econometrics that we view as important for empirical researchers working on policy evaluation questions. We focus on three main areas, where in each case we highlight recommendations for applied work. First, we discuss new research on identification strategies in program evaluation, with particular focus on synthetic control methods, regression discontinuity, external validity, and the causal interpretation of regression methods. Second, we discuss various forms of supplementary analyses to make the identification strategies more credible. These include placebo analyses as well as sensitivity and robustness analyses. Third, we discuss recent advances in machine learning methods for causal effects. These advances include methods to adjust for differences between treated and control units in high-dimensional settings, and methods for identifying and estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.

- Joy Buolamwini, a researcher at the MIT Media Lab, recently built a dataset of 1,270 faces, using the faces of politicians, selected based on their country’s rankings for gender parity (in other words, having more females in office). Buolamwini then tested the accuracy of three facial recognition systems: those made by Microsoft, IBM, and Megvii of China. The results, which were originally reported in The New York Times, showed inaccuracies in gender identification dependent on a person’s skin color. Gender was misidentified in less than one percent of lighter-skinned males; in up to seven percent of lighter-skinned females; up to 12 percent of darker-skinned males; and up to 35 percent in darker-skinner females. “Overall, male subjects were more accurately clas- sified than female subjects replicating previous findings (Ngan et al., 2015), and lighter subjects were more accurately classified than darker individuals,” Buolamwini wrote in a paper about her findings, which was co-authored by Timnit Gebru, a Microsoft researcher. “An intersectional breakdown reveals that all classifiers performed worst on darker female subjects.”

"This small lake outside Stockholm, Sweden, emits otherworldly sounds as Mårten Ajne skates over its precariously thin, black ice. “Wild ice skating,” or “Nordic skating,” is both an art and a science. A skater seeks out the thinnest, most pristine black ice possible—both for its smoothness, and for its high-pitched, laser-like sounds."

"Every few decades, libertarians need to be reminded why regulations exist. Time passes, and people forget why the SEC, FTC, FDA, FDIC, OSHA, child labor laws, et al were even created.
Cryptocurrencies created a completely anarchic monetary system, which people have used to layer investment systems on top of. Naturally, low hanging fruit scams and cons have arisen, and some form of governing structure will eventually be imposed, if not by actual governments, then by the community. Then more sophisticated abuses and negative externalities will arise, and ever more sophisticated regulations will be imposed by the community to thwart them.

In the end you may end up with something very much looking like a government, where people with connections and leverage in the governing structures get to decide the evolution of the rules, where a few players with disproportionate wealth or hashing power, help elect those people to committee positions. And once again, people will be looking to create systems to escape the defacto control and cronyism imposed on the system.

I guess what I'm saying is, nature abhors a vacuum, and given human nature, most systems will evolve to thwart the worse tendencies of the worst people, opening opportunities for others to capture power. So in the end, rather than seek to bring down our democratically elected government monetary systems via technology, we should seek to evolve them with ideas from technology.

Because booting out fiat currency and rebooting with crypto really just forces a painful relearning of all of the lessons we've learned in the last century of modern finance."

Yuuri wakes up in Victor’s room the night after the Sochi Grand Prix Final banquet. Did they sleep together? No. Instead, last night, Drunk Yuuri taunted Victor that he hadn’t earned the right to get in his pants…and spelled out exactly what Victor would have to do to get there.

Now, Victor intends to do everything on that list…

~

“The conversation,” Victor says, “went something like this. You said I wasn’t getting in your pants that easily.”
Victor says this in a normal tone of voice. Anyone could hear him. Yuuri looks around, but if anyone is paying attention, they’re pretending not to.

“Naturally, I asked what I would have to do to get in your pants.”

“Ah.” Yuuri blushes. “How embarrassing. What do you mean, naturally? Why would you ask that?”

Victor tilts his head. “Because I want to get in your pants. I thought that much was obvious by now.”

~

Note: Yuuri is not in a great headspace post Sochi Grand Final, and this fic necesssarily touches on mental health issues.