Forecasting the Bailout

I estimate the average price of distressed mortgages that pass from "troubled financial institutions" to the Treasury at auction will be 65 cents on the dollar, representing a loss of one-third of the original purchase price to the seller, and a prospective yield of 10 to 15 percent to the Treasury. Financed at 3 to 4 percent via the sale of Treasury bonds, the Treasury will therefore be in a position to earn a positive carry or yield spread of at least 7 to 8 percent.

....Democratic Party earmarks mandating forbearance on home mortgage foreclosures will be critical as well. If this program is successful, however, it is obvious that the free market and Wild West capitalism of recent decades will be forever changed. Future economic textbooks are likely to teach that while capitalism is the most dynamic and productive system ever conceived, it is most efficient over the long term when there is another delicate balance  between private incentive and government oversight.

Gross provides no clue about why he thinks the Treasury auction is likely to buy assets at 65 cents on the dollar, or why he thinks these assets will eventually sell for 75 or 80 cents on the dollar. And since the bailout plan would obviously help PIMCO, he has a pretty obvious personal interest in painting an optimistic picture of how well it will work.

Still, it's a number, and you can't fight something with nothing. We may now be entering a phase in which the price of entrance into the bailout punditry arena is a dueling estimate of just how well or how badly you think the bailout will turn out. Gentlemen, start your engines.