Tuesday, September 22, 2009

A brand new poll by Gonzales Research shows lots of voter concern about the economy but also shows no significant reduction in Governor O’Malley’s approval rating from January. Additionally, U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski looks to have an easy ride to re-election.Here are the key findings of the poll, which has not yet been posted on Gonzales’ website.

1. Economy, Health Care and Taxes are Top IssuesThe economy is ranked as the top issue by 43% of voters, down from 61% in January. The next most important issues are health care (13%), taxes (12%), the budget deficit (7%) and education (7%). Gonzales says, “The fact that 55% of Maryland voters cite either the economy or taxes as most important issue is a warning signal for incumbent officeholders.”

2. O’Malley’s Approval Rating Nearly UnchangedThe Governor’s approval rating is 48% in September, virtually identical to January’s rating of 49%. His disapproval rating holds steady at 37%. (Incidentally, our readers gave O’Malley a 51% approval rating, almost the same as this finding by Gonzales.)

O’Malley benefits from the partisan slant of the state. Gonzales says, “By party, 68% of Democrats approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 20% say they disapprove; but among Republicans, only 16% approve of the job O’Malley is doing, while 66% disapprove; among independents, 41% approve and 39% disapprove.”

3. Mikulski Looks StrongU.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski has a 67% approval rating, her highest in Gonzales’ tracking. Gonzales says, “Among Maryland voters, 55% say they will re-elect Barbara Mikulski next year, only 19% say they’ll definitely vote to replace, while 26% say they would like to consider another candidate… Barbara Mikulski has averaged 67% in her 4 elections… she appears headed toward another easy re-election.”

4. Voters Oppose All Budget Deficit RemediesSeventy-five percent of the voters say the budget deficit is “a very big problem.” But here are the voters’ reactions to each potential solution for the deficit.

Reduce state aid for public educationFavor: 16%Oppose: 80%

Reduce state services for the poorFavor: 22%Oppose: 70%

Increase the state income taxFavor: 26%Oppose: 67%

Reduce state aid for higher educationFavor: 27%Oppose: 67%

Increase the state sales taxFavor: 31%Oppose: 64%

Reduce state funding for environmental programsFavor: 38%Oppose: 56%

Reduce state funding for transportation projectsFavor: 40%Oppose: 51%

5. Many Potential O’Malley Challengers Have Low Name RecognitionThe primary is less than a year away. O’Malley’s potential rivals have little time to build their statewide name identification, a key advantage for the Governor.

All in all, the poll is good news for Martin O’Malley but contains some warning signs for incumbents in competitive districts.