Green Pool Boosts 2017-18 Sugar Forecast by 28%

August 23, 2017 at 12:07 PM

Commodities consultancy Green Pool increased its estimate for global sugar production in 2017-18 by 28% to a 7.14 million metric ton surplus compared with its previous forecast in early May.

The forecast outstrips the International Sugar Organization's most recent estimate of 4 million tons, Rabobank's 2.7 million ton estimate, and F.O. Licht's forecast of 5.4 million tons.

Green Pool's upgrade to its forecast was primarily driven by a 6% increase to production estimates, which outstripped a 1.5% increase in its consumption forecast.

High prices in 2016 and weather provide a large boost to production, Green Pool said. Meanwhile the consultancy expects global consumption to be beset by those same high prices from 2016, high tariffs, higher taxes, and rising health concerns.

In the forecast update, Green Pool maintained its optimism that Brazil would see strong sugar production, despite recent tax changes that make it more profitable for crushers to produce ethanol. "It would take a much steeper fall in sugar prices to change that outlook," Green Pool said. Elsewhere, the consultancy raised its crop production estimates for Thailand for both this season and next, citing a beneficial monsoon after two years of El Nino-induced drought.

Green Pool left its Chinese production forecast unchanged. This came on the same day as new Chinese import figures showed a drop of 85% year-over-year of the quantities of sugar entering the country. That makes July's import figure of 59,533 tons the lowest since June 2013, according to ING in a morning note.

The consultancy also adjusted its 2016-17 deficit figure to 2.08 million tons from the late June estimate of 2.04 million tons--a 2% change--thanks to a later-than-usual Pakistani crop.

The global sugar surplus is expanding as Brazil, Thailand and the European Union drive world production to record, according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Supplies will outpace demand by 7.1 million metric tons in the 2017-18 season that starts in October in most countries, a 29 percent increase from a May forecast.

Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus.
The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.

It’s not this year’s price crash that haunts the $150 billion sugar industry. It’s the fear of worse to come.
Raw sugar’s 16 percent drop ranks it bottom of the 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Shocks to demand in top consumer India and prospects of more European supply are helping shift the market to a surplus, hurting prices. Yet beyond such market dampeners, hang darker clouds.
After decades of stable demand growth, almost doubling per person since 1960, the world is heading for a tipping point as shoppers turn against the cola and candy blamed for an obesity epidemic in the rich world. At the same time, sugar has to compete with cheap syrups increasingly used in processed food.
"Growth is not what it’s been," Tom McNeill, managing director of Green Pool, said in an interview. "There is undoubtedly a move by global bottlers and by a lot of global food manufacturers to reduce the sugar content in their products."

The "war on sugar" being waged by governments and consumers to combat public health emergencies like diabetes is slowing growth in global demand, which along with other factors could signal a fundamental shift in consumption ahead.
Consumption may grow at its slowest pace in seven years in 2017/18, according to analyst group Platts Kingsman. It forecasts a rise of 1.04 percent, nearly half the average growth of about 2 percent per year over the last decade.
"Consumption is generally stagnating in developed countries," Tom McNeill, director at commodity analyst group Green Pool, told Reuters.

Global sugar exports will exceed demand this season and the next as India brings in less than expected and the European Union boosts output, according to Tropical Research Services, which advises hedge funds.
Exports will beat import demand every quarter through September 2018, TRS estimates. The trade-flow surplus will total 398,000 metric tons in the third quarter, reversing a previous forecast for a shortage of more than double that amount, said Sean Diffley, the firm’s head of sugar and ethanol research.

HOME
COMMODITIES
COMPANIES
MARKETS
OPINION
DATA
CALENDAR
SUBSCRIBE
Thurs 11th May 2017
PRINTABLE VERSION EMAIL TO A FRIEND RSS FEEDS 13:57 UK, 5th May 2017, by William Clarke
Green Pool trims sugar deficit forecast, a touch...
Sugar analyst Green Pool only slightly trimmed its forecast for a hefty sugar surplus next season, as consumption grows only sluggishly despite easing sugar prices.
"Consumption is a major issue for sugar, with global consumption growing only slowly," Green Pool said.
"Some growth is being seen in developing countries, while consumption is actually falling in some developed countries."

Posted Thu at 11:54am
Sugar being stored at one of Queensland Sugar Limited's bulk terminals
PHOTO: The global sugar price has hit a four year high overnight. (Supplied by Queensland Sugar Limited)
MAP: Mackay 4740
The global sugar price continues its strong rally this year, jumping 5 per cent in overnight trading in New York.
It is currently buying 20.82 US cents a pound, its highest level since August 2012.
A worldwide supply shortage plus a slow harvest in Brazil has seen sugar attract increased interest from investors.

* Harvest weather returns to Brazil's sugar regions
* Weak pound supports London cocoa
By David Brough
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE held
steady on Monday near a 2-1/2-year peak with dealers focused on
improving harvest weather in Brazil, while arabica coffee was
little changed as worries over frost risks eased.
A weakening pound, pressured by concerns over the coming
British vote on EU membership, gave support to London cocoa.
Raw sugar steadied, with a focus on improving conditions for
the cane crush in centre-south Brazil.
"The weather across Brazil's centre-south has improved
markedly over the past few days as dry weather returns across
the region allowing the crush to push into top gear again and
port loadings to get back to normal," a broker said.
Dealers noted that speculators again boosted the record net
long position in raw sugar contracts on ICE they have held since
early May in the week ended June 7, according to U.S. data.