The Phillies Zone

We'll begin with these caveats: We are not doctors. We have not reviewed Ryan Howard's medical charts. We have not spoken with the doctor who performed surgery for a torn Achilles because Mark Myerson denied comment.

2. History shows that five to six months is optimistic for a recovery from an injury like this.

Poll

Should the Phillies re-sign Jimmy Rollins to a long-term deal?

Yes. He’s still their best option.

No. Time to move on.

Maybe. First, they should look for a better option.

Again, Howard's injury could be less severe than others. Medicine may have improved significantly since some of these older injuries. Myerson is the leading foot and ankle specialist in the country. Howard has taken good care of his body in recent years.

For context, we did some extensive research of old newspaper clippings from the previous decade or so. There are few examples of baseball players — at least at the major-league level — suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon like Howard did. For the ones we found, we compared dates reported with game logs to ascertain when the injuries and returns occurred.

KEVIN FRANDSENRuptured Achilles March 24, 2008Returned for one game on Sept. 28, 2008

GABE KAPLERRuptured Achilles on Sept. 14, 2005Returned to majors on June 17, 2006 after seven rehab games

EDUARDO PEREZRuptured Achilles on May 9, 2004Missed rest of 2004 season

CARLOS HERNANDEZUnderwent surgery for ruptured Achilles on March 18, 1999Missed entire 1999 season

GREG DOBBSRuptured Achilles second game of 2003 seasonMissed rest of 2003 season

ROBERT PERSONRuptured Achilles in early February 2004Never pitched again

OLMEDO SAENZRuptured Achilles on Oct. 1, 2002Played in minor league rehab games by end of June 2003 and then disappeared for personal reasons

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The ideal scenario would be something like Frandsen, who missed almost six months on the dot. But he returned only for one at-bat in the final game of the season and reporters in San Francisco termed it a "quicker-than-expected recovery."

Every story about Contreras' eight-month recovery from the injury suggests it was nothing short of a surprise. On March 16, the Chicago Sun-Times wrote, "The usual recovery time for such a devastating injury is a year, and some in the organization feared it might be a career-ender for Contreras, 37."

Even then, Contreras had an 8.19 ERA after his first six starts and was sent to triple A in May. He came back in June and posted a 3.97 ERA for the remainder of the season.

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This isn't to say Howard cannot make a similar quick recovery, something for which the Phillies have initially budgeted. Amaro said Howard's injury will not affect his offseason plans. But if John Mayberry Jr. is the favorite for left field and he must substitute at first base for a few months, that could create a hole.

Either way, there is reason for skepticism on the original Howard timeline. The Phillies hope he can return sometime in April — hey, maybe even opening day. But that could merely be optimism.