GS: The pitcher's projected "Game Score," from Bill James' original formula, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A "*" means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author's projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

The Elite (ranked for use in daily cash games such as 50/50s and double ups)

The top Game Score of the day belongs to -- surprise, surprise -- Clayton Kershaw. He's been virtually unhittable of late, holding a 0.94 ERA and 0.62 WHIP with an 11.1 K/9 rate over his past 10 starts, and he has a prime matchup Thursday against an Atlanta Braves team that strikes out 23.4 percent of the time against left-handed pitchers, the third-highest rate in baseball. Yes, it's worth noting that the Braves do hit left-handers well, evidenced by a .327 weighted on-base average, but Kershaw is no ordinary left-hander. He's clearly the best and safest option in cash games Thursday, and even though there are other pitchers listed in the elite tier, the Dodgers ace is in a league of his own.

If you're going to fade Kershaw in cash games, Johnny Cueto is a reasonable alternative. He doesn't offer the safety or upside of the Dodgers lefty, but he has an enticing matchup against the Miami Marlins, who strike out more against right-handed pitchers (24.1 percent) than any other team baseball and also don't produce much hard contact (generating a .144 hard-hit average, which is bottom-five in baseball). After a run of strong but not extraordinary starts, Cueto hurled seven shutout innings against the Washington Nationals with nine K's his most recent time out. He hasn't registered double-digit whiffs in a start since mid-June, but he'll have a good crack at it here.

Gio Gonzalez is a guy who tends to fluctuate between the elite and solid tiers depending on his opponent. His matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday (plus a dearth of other top-tier plays) bumps him up to the top group. Gonzalez boasts a 1.66 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP and a 9.3 K/9 over his past six starts, and the Phillies have an uninspiring offense that ranks second worst in baseball in wOBA (.291) and third worst in hard-hit average (.134). That said, the only real reason to play him over Kershaw is cost.

Solid (can be considered for both daily cash games and tournament play)

In terms of second-tier starters Thursday, Drew Smyly is one of the more interesting names. After a couple of rough outings earlier this month, he's bounced back in his past two starts, including whiffing a season-high 11 hitters against the Los Angeles Angels in his most recent outing. He's set to square off against a Chicago White Sox team that has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 22nd in baseball in wOBA (.302), 27th in strikeout percentage (22.8 percent) and 27th in hard-hit average (.128). Ultimately, I prefer him in tournaments, but he could be an under-the-radar cash game option.

Julio Teheran already starts in a hole because he's squaring off against Kershaw. And that hole gets a little deeper considering he's facing a Los Angeles Dodgers team that sports a .323 wOBA against right-handed pitching, second-best in the National League. So, it should go without saying that Teheran is more of a tournament play Thursday, as he carries more risk than you'd like for a cash game. Then again, he does have 16 K's in 13 innings thus far in the second half, and has shown he can shut down top offenses, so he could surprise.

Value Plays (best used in tournaments or on multiple-pitcher sites)

I frequently highlight Drew Hutchison in this space when he has a good matchup, because on top of being affordable on most sites, he's shown that he can be dominant at times and he misses enough bats (8.2 K/9) to give you the upside you need in tournaments. His matchup Thursday against the Houston Astros fits the description. The Astros don't hit right-handed pitching particularly well (.294 wOBA), and they strike out a ton (23.9 percent), which gives Hutchison a lot of upside in this matchup.

Has Shelby Miller been on top of his game lately? No, not really. In four July outings, he holds a 4.76 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, to go along with a miniscule 3.2 K/9 rate. But if there's a matchup that will help turn a guy around, it's the San Diego Padres -- the worst offense in baseball -- at pitcher haven Petco Park. I don't recommend using Miller in anything but multi-pitcher sites, but given his cheap price tag and the prime matchup, he's worth a flier. He doesn't figure to be widely owned, and he'll help free up cap space so you can beef up your offense.

Hitter matchup ratings for July 31

Hitter Ratings

Hitter Ratings

Team

Overall

LHB

RHB

Steals

Team

Overall

LHB

RHB

Steals

5

4

5

4

No game scheduled

1

1

1

3

4

3

6

2

5

2

6

7

No game scheduled

No game scheduled

No game scheduled

8

4

10

4

No game scheduled

2

1

6

8

3

1

4

5

5

3

7

6

4

5

4

2

4

7

1

5

3

3

3

5

3

3

2

8

4

5

2

1

6

4

6

5

No game scheduled

6

7

5

7

6

6

6

4

7

7

6

6

No game scheduled

7

8

5

4

No game scheduled

2

4

1

5

6

4

7

6

1

1

1

4

2

1

3

5

Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. "LHB" and "RHB" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. A "*" means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate hitter rating; these are the author's ratings.

Kevin Correia doesn't discriminate. All opposing hitters are in play when he takes the mound. Left-handed hitters are sporting a.348 weighted on-base average against him this season, and right-handed hitters have a .356 wOBA. It's worth noting that many Kansas City Royals hitters have hit Correia well in the past, as Raul Ibanez is 6-for-14 in his career against the Minnesota right-hander, Lorenzo Cain is 7-for-12, Mike Moustakas is 7-for-17, Omar Infante is 9-for-24 and Billy Butler is 6-for-20.

Under normal circumstances, I would never recommend targeting hitters who are going up against Cliff Lee. But these aren't normal circumstances. Lee hasn't looked like himself of late, as he's struggled in his past two starts since returning from the disabled list (nine ER allowed in 10 2/3 innings). So if there's a time to take advantage of the veteran left-hander, this is it. The Washington Nationals handle left-handed pitching well (including a .324 wOBA, which is third best in NL), and Lee has allowed a .360 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Jayson Werth, who is 11-for-30 with two homers in his career against Lee, is the Nats' most intriguing option.

Paul Goldschmidt has slugged .578 this season in at-bats to end on a pitch on the inner third of the plate or closer, 12th among 156 qualifiers. Since the start of last season, Jeff Locke has thrown the second-highest percentage of pitches in that zone among qualifiers (43.6 percent).

Clayton Kershaw has the highest swing-and-miss rate among qualifiers this season when he throws a breaking pitch (46.5 percent). The Atlanta Braves have the fourth-highest miss percentage in the major leagues against breaking pitches this season (35.0 percent).

Through June 30, Giancarlo Stanton hit .393 in at-bats ending in a fastball, the best rate in MLB. In July, Stanton has hit just .206 in such at-bats. Johnny Cueto has the lowest batting average against in the major leagues this season in at-bats ending with his fastball (.186).

John Danks has thrown 30.6 percent changeups this season, tied with Chris Sale for the highest percentage in the majors. The Detroit Tigers have hit .280 in at-bats ending in an off-speed pitch from a lefty, the best rate in baseball.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: He left Monday's game with back soreness and did not play Tuesday. Heyward is expected back in the lineup later this week.

Mike Napoli, 1B, Boston Red Sox: He was not in Tuesday's starting lineup because of swelling in his left index finger. It's the same finger that required a DL stint earlier this season, so it's a situation to monitor.

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He was placed on the bereavement list Tuesday and will miss three to seven days before returning.

Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics: Crisp hasn't played since Saturday due to a chronic neck condition. It's not an issue that will necessarily require a DL stint, though, as the A's are hoping he'll return to the lineup Friday.

Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres: Kennedy was scratched from Monday's start with left oblique soreness. The hope is he can return to the mound Saturday.