``Countries from the Balkans to Denmark are sealing land borders, setting up a chain of obstacles that may eventually all but block passage for refugees to prosperous western European nations. But the journeys from Turkey to Europe's eastern edge will be almost impossible to stop.

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Only an unlikely peace, a moderation of the violence in Syria or far better conditions in regional refugee camps are likely to reduce the number of boats landing on Greek shores. Tighter border controls further north will only trap new arrivals in Greece, where they will still be a European responsibility.

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"Greece will have the burden because they won't be able to move on, so Europe will create camps to provide shelter for asylum seekers and other migrants," Doyle said, adding that they would probably open centres that refugees will come and go from, not locked centres.