Checkmating Chinas Growing Influence

Summary

The rise of China as an emerging power and as the most likely challenger to the global preponderance of the US is already having a significant impact across the globe. This phenomenon is being debated and analysed at various levels. In India too, it is generating a lot of excitement. On the one hand, it is considered to be an opportunity and on the other, a challenge. China represents the most impressive and, because of its size, the most important development success story in the world history. Increasingly, ‘look east’ will mean looking to China. Within a generation China is likely to become the largest economy in the world and in that position it has much to contribute to developed and developing countries in terms of trade and investment and above all, in terms of ideas on development. In Asia, the rise of China has translated into increased assertiveness – both in the South China Sea and now in the Indian Ocean Region. China’s formidable naval presence in the Indian Ocean, “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan, growing influence in Nepal and Bangladesh, and increasing border skirmishes in Arunachal Pradhesh all are glaring indicators of China’s intentions. The much-traded liberal argument that the deep-rooted economic engagements between the two countries would limit the possibility of the confrontation doesn’t seem to convince anymore. Instead, an increasingly assertive China is likely to arrest India’s geostrategic and national interests. The most decisive counter therefore is to prepare for a disguised cold war in the region, which is imminent by its early signs. The book covers China`s role in Global power dynamics - competition or cooperation with major powers and its neighbours and its power status. Strategic implications of China`s Rise dictate the courses of action to be adopted by the United States whom it intends to displace and its immediate neighbour India.

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Checkmating Chinas Growing Influence - Jonatan Rudolph

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Preface

The rise of China as an emerging power and as the most likely challenger to the global preponderance of the US is already having a significant impact across the globe. This phenomenon is being debated and analysed at various levels. In India too, it is generating a lot of excitement. On the one hand, it is considered to be an opportunity and on the other, a challenge.

The concern over Chinese intentions in the South China Sea is a driving factor feeding an increasing fear of Chinese actions. But what can the Chinese military actually do in the region? For the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in general and the PLA Navy (PLA-N) in particular the South China Sea disputes provided an excellent basis for justifying the need to modernize China’s maritime forces. By focusing on the disputes in the South China Sea the risks and benefits on the political, economic, and military level were minimal as compared with other disputes, such as that with Japan over the Sengakus or the US over Taiwan. While the South China Sea represented the threat of foreign encroachment on Chinese territory, the threat was from small Southeast Asian states that the PLA-N believed it could easily handle. The distance from the mainland and the dangerous ground of the Spratlys meant that the naval forces would need to be a modern, technically proficient, combat-ready, long distance navy skilled in joint operations. On the non-military front, China’s political and economic ties with the other claimants were also not as strong as those with Japan and the economic returns offered by the South China Sea could be substantial and immediate.

China’s formidable naval presence in the Indian Ocean, all-weather friendship with Pakistan, growing influence in Nepal and Bangladesh, and increasing border skirmishes in Arunachal Pradhesh all are glaring indicators of China’s intentions. The much-traded liberal argument that the deep-rooted economic engagements between the two countries would limit the possibility of the confrontation doesn’t seem to convince anymore. Instead, an increasingly assertive China is likely to arrest India’s geostrategic and national interests. The most decisive counter therefore is to prepare for a disguised cold war in the region, which is imminent by its early signs.

China’s use of regional and international organizations to institutionalize its power while either denying India access to these organizations or marginalizing India within them has added a new competitive dynamic to the relationship. In the past decade, India has found itself ranged against China at the UN Security Council, East Asia Summit, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the Asian Development Bank. In 2009, China vetoed a development plan for India by the latter in the disputed Arunachal Pradesh, thereby internationalizing a bilateral territorial dispute. In a tit-for-tat response, New Delhi has kept Beijing out of India-led multilateral frameworks such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue, and the Mekong–Ganga Cooperation forums, and rejected China’s request to be included as observer or associate member into the 33-member Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, started by India in 2008.

This is a reference book. All the matter is just compiled and edited in nature, taken from the various sources which are in public domain.

The book covers China`s role in Global power dynamics -competition or cooperation with major powers and its neighbours and its power status. Strategic implications of China`s Rise dictate the courses of action to be adopted by the United States whom it intends to displace and its immediate neighbour India.

—Editor

1

Growing of China’s Military

Capability and Strategy

The concern over Chinese intentions in the South China Sea is a driving factor feeding an increasing fear of Chinese actions. But what can the Chinese military actually do in the region? For the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in general and the PLA Navy (PLA-N) in particular the South China Sea disputes provided an excellent basis for justifying the need to modernize China’s maritime forces. By focusing on the disputes in the South China Sea the risks and benefits on the political, economic, and military level were minimal as compared with other disputes, such as that with Japan over the Sengakus or the US over Taiwan. While the South China Sea represented the threat of foreign encroachment on Chinese territory, the threat was from small Southeast Asian states that the PLA-N believed it could easily handle. The distance from the mainland and the dangerous ground of the Spratlys meant that the naval forces would need to be a modern, technically proficient, combat-ready, long distance navy skilled in joint operations. On the non-military front, China’s political and economic ties with the other claimants were also not as strong as those with Japan and the economic returns offered by the South China Sea could be substantial and immediate.

In the 1980s the PLA began to recognize that future international conflict would be of a limited nature with threats to the Chinese periphery rather than the heartland. In these conflicts victory would be dependent on high technology weapons, electronic warfare, highly motivated and well-trained troops, ground, air and sea mobility, and the ability to inflict maximum damage while not being bogged down in a protracted engagement. In 1985, the PLAN began to identify the need to shift from coastal defence to offshore defence. This strategy had the additional task of supporting and protecting economic and developmental projects in the waters surrounding the mainland. In light of this change it was decided that the PLA-N would require a nuclear submarine capability, a mobile force capable of responding to a variety of incidents in ocean conditions, and fortified positions where troops could be based and from which combat operations could be mounted. The adoption of this offshore defence strategy had important implications for the South China Sea as the Paracels and the Spratlys were now included in the area of operations. The new strategy also required the development of new equipment, such as surface and sub-surface warships and aircraft capable of operating farther from the Chinese coastal areas.

In 1986, the then-assistant commander-in-chief of the PLA-N, Zhang Xusan, argued that as naval operations are usually conducted far away from home bases it is important for the navy to have the capability to be able to detect and interdict an enemy invasion fleet quickly. It would therefore be necessary to concentrate on the development of highly mobile forces of high combat effectiveness in order to engage the enemy at the earliest possible time. In addition, it would be necessary for the navy to become familiar with the waters out to the first islands chain. Over the next few years senior Chinese PLA-N officers advocated that, due to the increased threats emanating from the sea and in order to safeguard the waters inside the first islands chain, the navy would need to be modernized.

In 1992, the Chinese president, Jiang Zemen, announced that the role of the PLA would be modified to ensure national unification, safeguard territorial integrity, and protect maritime rights and interests. With this the PLA-N would be responsible for establishing a three-ring combat strategy. In the inner ring, within 150 nautical miles of the mainland, the navy would deploy a variety of small coastal defence vessels to protect this area. In the centre ring, between 150 and 300 nautical miles larger vessels, such as the new multi-role frigates, would be used to engage and destroy an enemy fleet. In the outer ring, beyond 300 nautical miles (from the Korean Strait in the north, Okinawa in the east and the Spratly Islands in the south), the navy would rely upon submarines and aircraft, such as the B-6 bombers and advanced fighters operating from the mainland. Coupled with this new role the PLA-N published a report that same year calling on a readjustment to a naval strategy that ensured protection of Chinese oil and gas exploration and production efforts in the South China Sea. In April 1992, General Zhang Xusan, the deputy commander-in-chief of the PLA-N, was reported by the China Daily as stating that China planned to develop more advanced weaponry for the Navy in order to allow them to protect Chinese claims in the South China Sea.

For the PLA the modernization program focused on a reduction in the total size of the PLA and in developing more sophisticated land, air, and naval forces. To this end the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) began to update its largely obsolete fleet of combat aircraft. The rapprochement between China and Russia in the 1990s provided China with an opportunity to circumvent the US military technology sanctions imposed on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre. In recent years, the PLA-AF has procured 50 Su-27SK and 28 Su-27UBK fighter aircraft from Russia and arranged to build a further 150 under licence. China has also taken delivery of 78 advanced Su-30MKK fighter aircraft with some 28 of the naval variant Su-30MK2 on order for the PLA-NAF. The Chinese have at the same time devoted increased resources to its problematic domestic production capabilities and currently have in development an upgrade program for their JH-7 fighter-bombers as well as the development of the J10 fighter. Once these projects are completed the domestic production runs could produce 30-50 of each type of aircraft. The PLA-NAF has also modified its 18 older H-6D bombers to hold C-601 anti-ship missiles and up to 50 H-5 light bombers to hold torpedoes. China has also introduced airborne early warning (AEW) platforms onto is Y-8 aircraft. It is also looking to purchase Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft. However, in comparison with the size of the PLA-AF and naval air wing, these numbers represent the modernization of less than 10 percent of the total force, and the pilots allocated to these modern fourth generation fighter and attack aircraft fly insufficient hours annually to gain proficiency in all air combat roles. Additionally, China is reliant on Russia for the manufacture and deeper maintenance of some key aircraft systems, such as the high performance jet engines used in the latest generation fighter aircraft. Thus, the operational significance of China’s efforts to date to re-equip its air forces must be considered debatable at best.

China’s naval forces are also in the process of modernization, focusing on deploying vessels that have greater range, are more survivable, and carry more lethal weapons systems. Issues of training and maintenance will determine whether the naval component of China’s power projection capability is fully realized. Over the past 10 years the PLA-N has purchased or ordered a total of four Sovremenny class guided-missile destroyers armed with SSN-22 Sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and the SA-N-7 Gadfly and SA-N-12 Grizzly surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems; a single Luhai class (Type 051B) guided-missile destroyer armed with the C-802 ship-to-ship missile (SSM); three Luhu class (Type 052) guided-missile destroyers, and 12 Jiangwei class guided-missile frigates. These latter warships are equipped with the Crotale short-range air defence systems that will most likely be replaced by a longer-range vertical-launch system (VLS). They also have integrated tactical data systems, an improved antisubmarine warfare suite that includes embarked helicopters, and diesel or gas turbine propulsion. The PLA-N is also upgrading some of its older Type 51 Luda class destroyers with the C-801 SSM, Crotale SAM, and modern fire control systems.

The Chinese are also in the process of building two new types of guided-missile destroyers with fleet-air defence capabilities. The first two Type 052B destroyers were launched in 2002 and 2003. These are equipped with the SA-N-12 Grizzly SAM system guided by four indication radars and a Top Plate 3D air-search radar, and the new C-803 ASCMs with a data link antenna to receive mid-course target information. A further two Type-052C dedicated airdefence destroyers are also being produced with the first launched in April 2003. These will be equipped with a phased-array radar system similar to the American Aegis systems, and a vertical-launch system for air defence missiles. In addition to the new classes of missile destroyers, the PLA-N is also building a new class of frigate. Reportedly designated as Type 054, the new frigate is a stealthy surface combatant similar to the French-built LaFayette class. These ships are likely to be equipped with the C-803 SSM and the SA-N-7 Gadfly SAM. Two ships are currently under construction with the first launched on 11 September 2003.

In regards to its submarine force the PLA-N continues to deploy its outdated Romeo class submarines. They have also developed two new classes of attack submarines: the Ming (Type 035) and Song (Type 039) classes. The Ming is an updated version of the Romeo class with improved sonar and navigation equipment. The PLA-N’s five Song submarines are the most advanced domestically produced submarine in China and incorporate a streamlined hull and skewed propeller for better submerged performance. The Song class are also equipped with a modified C-802 SSM which is capable of being launched from a submerged submarine. The PLA-N has also purchased four Kilo class attack submarines (two Type EKM877 and two Type EKM636) and has ordered an additional eight of the more advanced EKM636 for delivery in 2007. The Chinese are also producing a nuclear powered attack submarine (Type 093) which is expected to be capable of firing both the C-802 ASCM and a proposed land attack cruise missile.

CHINA’S MILITARY STRATEGY

It is an excellent time to reassess China’s national military strategy. The next wave of significant reforms for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is already beginning to unfold. The results of the 15th Party Congress (September 1997) and the 9th National People’s Congress (NPC) (March 1998) indicate that after many years of study and debate firm decisions have been made to move forward with structural, organizational and other adjustments to China’s armed forces. At the Party Congress Jiang Zemin announced a 500,000-man reduction in force size over the next three years. In the wake of the 9th NPC, a fourth General Department was created—the General Armaments Department—and the Commission for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defence (COSTIND) was elevated to ministry status with a civilian in charge. We should expect to see more changes, although Beijing’s timetable is unknown. Some change may be dramatic and public. Most will be quiet and not easily discernable, given the opaque nature of the Chinese defence establishment.

While the recent party congress and NPC serve as significant benchmarks, we must remember that they are points on a continuum of change that the PLA has been undergoing for almost two decades. What does the PLA hope to achieve and why? How does it plan to achieve its ends? These very basic questions, which on the surface seem so simple, are probably the most critical questions one can ask in evaluating the Chinese armed forces. They are critical questions because if one does not address these overarching issues it is difficult to make sense of all other developments: command and doctrinal issues, organization and force structure, or hardware development and acquisition, to name a few.

To answer these basic questions we must have a framework and a context. This chapter attempts to provide such a context. It will offer a notional national military strategy for China.

There are five major assumptions implicit in this chapter. The first is that China does in fact have a national military strategy. That is, there is a rationale behind the ongoing PLA reforms. A second assumption is that outside observers can adduce that rationale, even if imperfectly, from public domain information. The third assumption is that the PLA remains subservient to the party and the state and therefore China’s national military strategy is derived from and mutually supportive of Beijing’s overarching national security strategy. A fourth assumption is that while there is much that is unique about China’s armed forces, there is also a good deal of universality in how defence establishments go about the business of planning at the national level. A fifth assumption is that Western models can sometimes help structure a discussion of Chinese phenomena even to the point of using Chinese terminology comfortably within those constructs.

The U.S. Army War College (AWC) model of military strategy as developed by Colonel Arthur Lykke, USA (Ret.) serves as the superstructure of the following analysis of the PLA. While the PLA would certainly not use an American construct to articulate its national military strategy, this model is nevertheless a useful tool for the descriptive and analytic purposes of this chapter. I have also borrowed useful frames of reference from the planners on the Joint Staff who produce the Pentagon’s national military strategy (which in turn is based upon a derivative of the Army War College model), as well as several universal military concepts such as centre of gravity and others. Into these frames we shall place Chinese lenses to articulate a vision of the bigger picture.

National Military Strategy

Before proceeding there are three terms which should be addressed: strategy, national security strategy, and national military strategy.

Strategy. Strategy is an easy word to use but is difficult to define. Most standard dictionaries are more confusing than enlightening on that particular entry because a strategy refers to a holistic system and process. Our interest in the word strategy will focus on its component parts because of their utility in analyzing the whole. The U.S. Army War College utilizes a simple but powerful formula to express what a strategy is and what its critical component parts consist of: Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means. In this equation ends are our objectives or goals, ways are the courses of action we choose to achieve those goals, and means are the resources either at hand or which must be developed to enable the courses of action.

There are three important aspects of this model to keep in mind. The first is that the three components of a strategy—ends, ways and means—are interdependent. All of the components must be appropriate to the whole and in proper balance with the others if the strategy is to be successful. The second point to keep in mind is that when we attempt to study someone else’s strategy, such as the PLA’s, focusing on only one component of the strategy without an understanding of the other two may lead to incorrect or incomplete conclusions. The third point is the utility of this model as an analytic tool. It is almost universal in its applicability and is not limited to military affairs. One can easily use this equation to craft, describe or analyze political or economic strategies. Also, in the realm of military planning it is applicable across the three levels of warfare— the strategic, operational and tactical levels.

National Security Strategy. American analysts often use the term national security strategy or security strategy in the context of a nation’s military concerns or military-related issues. This chapter adopts a variant of the much broader definition used by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. A National Security Strategy (NSS) will refer to the development, application and coordination of all the elements of national power (political/diplomatic, economic, informational, military, sociological/cultural) to achieve a nation’s objectives in domestic and international affairs in peace as well as in war.

In pursuing the national objectives set forth in a NSS, multiple strategies co-exist: an economic strategy, a political strategy, a diplomatic strategy, a social strategy, and a military strategy, at the very least. There are two points to make about this definition. First, Lykke’s equation is still a valid construct. A national security strategy will have to articulate ends (objectives), ways (courses of action), and means (resources). Also, it should be noted that the military element of national power is a subset within the broader national security strategy. This brings us to a description of a national military strategy.

National Military Strategy. A National Military Strategy (NMS) is the military component of a nation’s overall National Security Strategy. Its objectives are derived from those within the overarching NSS. It is the role of the national military leadership to ensure that the military element of national power will be available to contribute to the NSS in both peace and war, in the here and now and in the future.

The NMS is the vehicle through which the national military leadership articulates, revalidates, and adjusts the ends, ways, and means of the armed forces to comport with changing NSS objectives, a changing security environment, or changes in the availability of national resources to be applied to the armed forces. A national military strategy is usually influenced by civil political and economic decisions. Consequently, national military strategies are dynamic and require constant review, revision and updating. At the national level of military planning—the level at which a NMS is generated— direction, guidance and policies are articulated in broad terms to steer the armed forces in the correct direction. Specific decisions, programs and detailed planning follow in due course.

Once again, the equation is still valid. A NMS must articulate ends, ways and means. In the case of a NMS, the equation is rewritten to reflect the national level of military strategy: National Military Strategy = National Military Objectives + National Military Strategic Concepts + National Military Resources. National Military Objectives (NMOs) will be derived from the NSS. The National Military Strategic Concepts (NMSC) will articulate the courses of action that will be undertaken to achieve the ends. The National Military Resources (NMRs) describe the types of capabilities that will be required to be on hand or be developed to enable the NMSCs.

The starting point for crafting a NMS is the articulation of NMOs. From these are developed NMSCs and NMRs. But before articulating NMSCs strategic planners first must use a critical strategic filter that identifies the imperatives of conflict and the possible constraints planners may have to consider. At minimum, the strategic filter: (1) considers political decisions handed down to military planners or brokered between military and civilian leaders; (2) assesses the current and projected security environments (conflict with whom? when?); and (3) performs an analysis of the operational environment (what kinds of conflicts?).

The synergistic relationship between the three elements of a NMS is readily apparent. If the resources are not available to enable the NMSCs, then weighty political-military decisions are in order: either adjust the NMOs and NMSCs or commit the resources (usually funding) to develop the NMRs. But such a zero-sum set of decisions is usually unacceptable for political reasons and impractical for reasons of national security. Consequently, at the national level of military planning, the NMS often encompasses multiple substrategies for different time frames. At a minimum, one strategy must be focused on current capabilities and near-term contingencies. Another should consider the requirements of coping with future potential security problems. Crafting military strategies for the here and now while accounting for over-the-horizon problems is a conundrum that is encountered almost exclusively at the national level of military planning and, save success in war, is probably the ultimate test of a nation’s generalship.

With the preceding discussion behind us we can now move on to consider the case of China. To do so we will take the iterative and dynamic process that is used to craft an NMS, which is a cyclical process, and artificially stretch it out in linear fashion in order to be descriptive of its components.

China’s National Military Strategy

The national military strategy that will now be discussed finds its roots in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping reassessed the international security environment and made the decision to make economic modernization the central task for the coming decades. Deng’s decisions not only sent the Chinese nation down a new and different path, but sent the PLA down a new road as well. It stands to reason that a modernizing, outward-looking China seeking a leading role in the mainstream of the international order would require a new type of defence establishment and a new military strategic direction than that of a previously autarkic China seeking to lead the Third World. What follows then is a description of what Chinese strategic planners might term the general thrust of the national military strategy during the new historical period and into the cross-century period. It is current to the extent that the latest policy decisions coming out of the 15th Party Congress and 9th National People’s Congress are incorporated as adjustments. But we should bear in mind that the general direction of China’s NMS has been evolving for more than a decade. Consequently, there is both continuity and change to report.

National Military Objectives

China’s national military strategy seeks to achieve three sets of national military objectives: Protect the Party and Safeguard Stability, Defend Sovereignty and Defeat Aggression, and Modernize the Military and Build the Nation.

These three objectives not only define what it is the PLA must achieve as a military force, but highlights the unique role it plays in the political economy of the PRC. Significantly, these three national military objectives are derived from and are mutually supportive of China’s three national security objectives. The formulation of these three national military objectives are strictly those of the author’s and not authoritative PRC formulations. However, they should be familiar to students of the PLA because China’s top military leaders often allude to them or aspects of them in public statements.

For example, in the April 1998 issue of International Strategic Studies, Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Xiong Guangkai states that the basic objectives of China’s armed forces are to consolidate national defence, resist aggression, defend the nation’s sovereignty over its territorial land, sea, airspace as well as its maritime interests, and safeguard national unity and security. In May 1998 Chief of the General Staff Department (GSD) General Fu Quanyou provided this iteration: the PLA’s mission is to strengthen the national defence, fend off aggression, safeguard territorial sovereignty and the rights and interests of territorial waters, and maintain national integrity and safety. As yet another example, in 1996 Defence Minister Chi Haotian offered that the basic objectives of China’s national defence are to solidify the defensive capacity, resist foreign invasion, and safeguard the unification and security of the country.

Although the three national military objectives that this chapter posits are seemingly self-explanatory, it is worthwhile to briefly discuss each because through them we achieve a greater appreciation of just what it is the PLA is attempting to achieve, the challenges it faces, and a flavor for the organizational culture of this massive defence establishment.

Protect the Party and Safeguard Stability. The first and foremost mission entrusted to the PLA, and a national military objective, is to be the guardian of the CCP. The past two decades of professionalization and modernization have not altered the fundamental fact that the institutional loyalty of China’s armed forces and the personal commitment of it top leaders is to the maintenance of the regime and the primacy of the CCP. The PLA remains the party’s army. China’s national command authorities are the leaders of the Central Military Commission (CMC), which is a party organization under the Central Committee. It is worth remembering that it has only been 71 years since the Red Army was founded. The revolutionary heritage of that army and its roots as a communist insurgent force that saved the fledgling CCP from annihilation in the 1920s and 1930s is not too distant a memory for some of the current PLA leaders. Minister of Defence and CMC Vice Chairman General Chi Haotian (66 years old) joined the PLA as a young man in the early 1940s during the twin struggles against the Nationalists and the Japanese and he spent a good part of his later career as a senior political commissar. The constant self-propagandizing within the PLA to remind the troops that the party is the focus of their loyalty has not abated as the Chinese armed forces have attempted to become a more proficient military force. Indeed, the first among the Five General Requirements issued by Jiang Zemin for all PLA soldiers is to be politically qualified.

It is often argued that today the party and ideology mean less and less in China. For the general populace and even some civil cadre that may be truer than not. However, the party and ideology still count for quite a lot in the PLA. The new nationalism that has been ascribed to the PLA is not necessarily at the expense of the Party and it may just be that in today’s China the PLA is the only institution over which the CCP centre in Beijing still has near total control from one end of the nation to the other. The constant public affirmations of the PLA’s top leaders of the primacy of the Party is no more empty rhetoric than the statements of the top U.S. military leadership affirming the primacy of the Constitution and the principle of civilian control over the military.

In August 1997, PLA Academy of Military Sciences Commandant General Xu Huizi encapsulated many of the above thoughts in an article in China Military Science.

After entering the new historical period, Deng Xiaoping repeatedly stressed that our military situation is that of the party commanding the gun, instead of the gun commanding the party; the military must follow the party’s instructions,