Education, health services where jobs are

(SHINIKO R. FLOYD, ORLANDO…)

September 8, 2013|Jim Stratton, BUSINESS COLUMNIST

If you have a passing interest in line graphs, if you're intrigued at all by data, take a look at the image on this page.

In it, you'll see one of the finest examples of steady growth I've run across in the past five years. Notice the strong upward trend, the straight-line march from lower left to upper right. It could have fallen out of a statistics textbook.

The image represents opportunity.

It shows the growth over time of jobs in an economic sector known as education and health services. It's a big umbrella that covers everything from college professors to medical service managers to nurses to home-health aides.

And if economists were going to pick an MVP of the labor force over the past several years, the sector would be a strong contender. That's because education and health services has been the Mariano Rivera of the job market -- dependable, impressive, unwavering in its performance.

While other sectors were knocked silly during the Great Recession – education and health services barely seemed to notice. Over the past 15 years, it has expanded by 60.5 percent in Central Florida according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Fort Lauderdale, it grew by 38 percent over the same time, and statewide it expanded by 42 percent.

In Metro Orlando, employment in the sector mushroomed from 82,000 in January 1998 to 131,600 in July 2013, according to BLS.

That's not the biggest percentage jump – professional and business services have grown by 64 percent over the same period – but bigger isn't always better. What sets education and health services apart is the remarkably sturdy growth pattern.

Consider this: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland looked at national numbers early this year and found that over the course of the recession and recovery – 2007 through 2012 – education and health services added almost 2 million jobs, while the rest of the economy lost almost 6 million jobs.

"In fact," the Fed wrote, "there was only one month in the entire period where education and health services actually showed negative employment growth."

Given that the labor market was shedding jobs like my dog sheds fur, that's stunning.

So why has the sector seemed largely bulletproof? Mainly because we insist on getting older and staying well.

Aging baby boomers are a blessing and curse on the nation's health-care system. Yes, they're expensive and they strain services, but they also provide plenty of jobs – jobs that are more insulated from downturns in the economy.

"Aside from cosmetic or elective surgery, it doesn't really matter where you are in the business cycle," said University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. "If you get sick, if you need your appendix out or something, you're going to seek medical attention."

The education side of the sector, Snaith said, is also driven by demographics – more people seeking advanced schooling and training – and, to some degree, the strength of the economy.

When jobs become scarce, those already in the workforce look to beef up their skills, often at local colleges or for-profit career training schools. And those institutions need manpower to operate.

The pay in education and health services can be all over the place. Home-health aides often make as little as $21,000 while hospital and school administrators can easily knock back $90,000 or more.

But generally, the pay in this sector isn't bad, averaging about $51,000, according to BLS.

Another plus? We're at the front end of the Baby Boom retirement, meaning job prospects in this sector look pretty good moving forward. In fact, a new state report predicts it will add more jobs than any other between now and 2021.

"We might slow down and catch our breath," said Snaith, "but I don't see the [growth] trend changing any time soon."