Gormley: Saskatchewan attitude prevails

No one knows who first said it, although it’s been attributed to a movie star, various football coaches and country music singers: “Tough times don’t last; tough people do.”

This comes to mind as Saskatchewan looks back on a two-year recession caused by falling resource prices. But unlike earlier economic downturns, this time people are facing it with a different attitude.

It is axiomatic for a province like ours, which farms, drills and mines commodities, to have ups and downs.

The Great Depression of the 1930s existentially redefined Saskatchewan. The 1970s resource boom ended with a national recession, runaway inflation and crippling high interest rates.

In the late 1980s we saw the collapse of agriculture and a debt crisis brought on by government spending.

Even in the early 2000s, a population drain reduced Saskatchewan to numbers unseen in two decades.

Each of these times we responded pretty much the same way, by running for the exits with our hair on fire, swirling in a toxic combination of anger and recrimination for being foolish enough to actually believe that things could be better.

As I have observed in this column and in a bestselling political book, the attitude often underlying Saskatchewan history was an intricately woven web of inferiority, self-loathing, negativism and pessimism.

For two generations, provincial governments — most often the natural governing NDP — would carefully manage expectations downward, intentionally perpetuating the view that one best not get their hopes up, things could always be worse and that failure was just one harvest away.

There was a pronounced tendency to talk down Saskatchewan and keep thinking small.

Economic cycles differ from politics, although they are intimately connected. Whether government fiscal policy involves abundance or scrambling to contain deficits, public opinion will vary — just as there is anger over the current budget — but there is something deeper in the attitude of how we choose to face adversity.

Recent economic analyses confirm the provincial economy shrunk during the past couple of years — according to RBC Economics — by 1.3 per cent in 2015 and 1.8 per cent in 2016.

The Conference Board of Canada predicts a modest but barely noticeable recovery this year of 0.9 per cent, echoing the Saskatchewan government’s growth forecast of 0.8 per cent, while RBC sees the economy expanding by 1.8 per cent.

The important point is that we are not in free fall and are coming out the other side.

One significant factor will change. The past decade’s capital spending of $20 billion per year on average — as potash mines expanded, the oilpatch spent and large government infrastructure built up — will slow.

But otherwise we’re coming back.

The Conference Board’s Cities Outlook observes a “soft rebound” underway with forecasts of 1.9 per cent growth in Saskatoon and 1.6 per cent in Regina.

Employment is expected to grow — a 1.1 per cent job bump in Saskatoon and 1.2 per cent in Regina, although this forecast was done before the provincial budget.

Certainly there is caution. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s monthly barometer indicates that while 11 per cent of business owners are planning to hire more full time staff, 17 per cent are planning layoffs.

Social psychologists tell us of the link between belief, attitude, intention, and behaviour.

More now than at any time in recent history, a much larger and robust Saskatchewan — closer to 1.2 million people — is not rolling over.

This comes from the influence of newcomers, immigrants, change-adjusted millennials, and folks who have experienced economic cycles elsewhere.

People are also staying because Alberta’s economic woes have made it a less attractive alternative.

But this time around there is a Saskatchewan attitude steeped in resilience, adaptability and interconnectedness with the world that wasn’t here in the past.

Perhaps it’s a modern take on advice columnist Ann Landers’ wisdom that we should expect trouble as an “inevitable part of life. When it comes, hold your head high, look it squarely in the eye and say, ‘I will be bigger than you. You cannot defeat me.’ ”

John Gormley is a broadcaster, lawyer, author and former Progressive Conservative MP whose radio talk show is heard weekdays from 8:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on 650 CKOM Saskatoon and 980 CJME Regina.

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