Baseball: Not just luck predicting Red Sox would win AL East

At my first Little League tryout, the coach asked if I threw left or right, and I answered, "right."

That's significant because until now, it was the only time my name and "right" were mentioned in the same breath. This second time was because I was right about the Red Sox — and just about the only one — when I predicted that Boston would win the AL East title.

A lucky guess?

To some extent, as are all predictions. But it was not just a roll of the dice. Three things went into figuring the Red Sox would win the division. And they were:

•The rebound effect.

No team in memory ever has had as much go wrong as the 2012 Red Sox, and that run of bad luck was going to even out in 2013. And it did. Like, how else besides pure luck do you explain the Sox taking advantage of an interim manager accidentally signaling to bring the wrong relief pitcher into a game?

The other part of it was that Boston players disliked Bobby Valentine so much in 2012 that any new manager was bound to be welcomed and embraced, and John Farrell was. Plus, it turns out he is a very good manager. That's similar to what happened with Morgan's Magic in 1988.

•Ben Cherington's moves.

They were good ones. Cherington understood that winning teams are not created by adding up the home runs and RBIs, and that there is some sort of mysterious "mix" that has to be assembled carefully. The Sox probably never anticipated how much they'd get from Koji Uehara, but they knew he was a good reliever. His emergence may have seemed like luck, but it was mostly good homework.

The 2013 AL East title was a result of lots of good homework.

•A weak division.

The Yankees' overall age, and the precarious health of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez entering the season, indicated that they were going to have a tough time of it. It was tougher than they imagined, and New York had a little of Boston's reverse magic from 2012 going with an eternal string of misfortune.

The Blue Jays imported a core of players from a 2012 Marlins team that had the same record as the 2012 Red Sox. What made them think the results would be different in 2013? The Orioles were too lucky in 2012 — how about all those extra-inning victories? — to expect it to happen again. The Rays turned out to be the usual Rays — good team, not great, but enough pitching to contend and be dangerous.

So, it seemed like a reasonable choice, picking Boston to win the division. The Sox turned out to be even better than I had anticipated, but that's sort of like Cherington's decision to sign Uehara.

And for those who have sent me reminders that I was right, admitting that in March they thought I should have been institutionalized, thanks — we all make mistakes, right?

Baseball Jeopardy

Answers:

1. The only two Red Sox players to have pinch-hit home runs in a World Series game.

2. The opponent the Red Sox have played the most postseason games against.

3. The two teams that have been World Series opponents the most times.

Questions below.

Another season for books

David Ortiz will not finish on top of any Triple Crown category, but his season has been a historic one among Red Sox hitters. Ortiz is merely the fourth Boston batter to hit .300 when he was 38 years old, and he's the only Sox player that old to hit .300 and have 30 homers and 100 RBIs in the same season.

The other 38-year-olds to bat .300 were Ted Williams, Mickey Vernon and Bob Johnson.

Williams did it three times. He hit .345 when he turned 38 in 1956, finishing second to Mickey Mantle, a Triple Crown winner, in the batting race. In 1957, at age 39, Williams hit .388 and won the batting championship, perhaps an even greater achievement considering his age than hitting .406 in 1941. That year, Williams hit an amazing 38 home runs but had only 87 RBIs. In 1958, Williams batted .328 at age 40.

Vernon, a first baseman, hit .310 at age 38 in 1956 — what a year that was for Sox old-timers — but he fell six plate appearances short of the number needed today to qualify for the batting race. However, even if those six plate appearances are added to his at-bats as outs, Vernon still would have hit higher than .300, so it counts.

Johnson was 38 when hit .324 in 1944. He finished third in the batting race with teammate Bobby Doerr taking second at .325.

Another remarkable accomplishment for Ortiz this year is that he spent all but one game of his season hitting .300 or better. He was 2 for 4 on April 20, his first game after being activated from the disabled list, and stayed above .300 through June 15.

He was 0 for 4 the next day to drop to .299, then was 2 for 4 on June 18 to go back to .303. Ortiz was above .300 the rest of the season.

Catching up with...

Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver is a club ambassador for the Mets. ... Southpaw reliever Scott Sauerbeck is the community events coordinator for St. Stephen's School in Bradenton, Fla. ... Former Holy Cross multisport standout Dick Berardino is a player development consultant for the Red Sox. ... Joe Sambito, a key reliever for the '86 Red Sox, is player agent for SFX group with Will Middlebrooks as a client. ... Outfielder Wes Chamberlain is a coach, motivational speaker and mentor for young athletes in the Chicago area. ... Reliever Wayne Gomes, no relation to Jonny, owns the Virginia Baseball Academy.

Market may dwindle

Robinson Cano is going to be like one of those mega-mansions built during the economic bubble years of the early 2000s. His asking price now is so ridiculous that it will scare away the reasonable shoppers — there are still some left in baseball — and he'll wind up with just a couple of potential buyers. While Cano still can hit, and he is not just a Yankee Stadium hitter, scouts are noticing that his defensive skills have begun to erode.

In line with the Sox belief that a team is more than the sum of its home runs and RBIs, Pedroia would get the nod in this space. His day-in, day-out contributions — inning after inning, ground ball after ground ball, plate appearance after plate appearance — are irreplaceable. It's just that we've come to expect so much from him that if he doesn't hit .320, it looks like a disappointing year.

They can manage

Terry Francona and John Farrell could finish 1-2 in the voting for American League Manager of the Year. That would be interesting not only because of their past connection, but because both are managers who looked like failures after their first big-league jobs and found success when they were recycled.

It's an award generally given to someone whose team has greatly exceeded expectations. Really, though, Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon is a victim of his own success. Every year, Maddon makes his Rays overachieve and it happens so often, it has become an expectation. Maddon probably should be AL Manager of the Year every year.

So long for now

It's time for a couple of temporary good-byes.

Bud Selig says he will retire as commissioner after the 2014 season. We'll see about that. If he does, look for Brett Favre to replace him.

And this will be the last time this weekly essay appears for at least a few months as the postseason beckons. And, with the uncertain state of the newspaper industry, who knows beyond this?

In any case, thanks to those who have sent in suggestions, advice, information and ideas. Oh, and complaints, too.

Jeopardy questions

1. Who are Bernie Carbo and Bobby Kielty? Carbo hit two pinch home runs against the Reds in the 1975 World Series while Kielty hit one in Denver against the Rockies in 2007.

2. Who are the Angels? Boston has played them 20 times in five postseason series and is 13-7 in those games.

3. Who are the Yankees and Dodgers? They have played each other in the World Series 11 times, first in 1941 and most recently in 1981. New York has won eight times, the Dodgers three.

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