2016 Fantasy Football: Sleepers and Busts from the Oddsmakers

The NFL is back and that brings the welcome return of fantasy football. Over the past few years we have used oddsmaker’s projections to shed new light on fantasy rankings, and the results have been overwhelmingly successful.

Our method is simple: we compare the ESPN positional rankings with the league leader futures over at 5Dimes — a well-respected offshore sportsbook. By highlighting the largest discrepancies between ESPN’s rankings and the oddsmaker rankings, we are able to find the top values for fantasy managers. A positive number represents a potential sleeper while a negative number reflects a potential bust.

Last season this strategy had some success, although there were certainly a few major whiffs. We had tremendous success at the quarterback position, recommending that managers take Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr and Jameis Winston in later rounds. All of those players outperformed their average draft position. We also recommended that managers avoid Tony Romo entirely, and he played only four games due to injuries.

Unfortunately, our recommendations for running backs were slightly less accurate. We pinpointed Cowboys running back Joseph Randle as a potential steal, but teammate Darren McFadden finished as the team’s top rusher. We also said to avoid Mark Ingram and Lamar Miller — both of whom posted tremendous seasons. On the bright side, fantasy managers would have done well to follow our advice to select Chris Ivory and Todd Gurley.

We also projected a breakthrough season for Martavius Bryant, who was incredibly productive after serving his four-game suspension. Unfortunately, the veteran receivers we highlighted (Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson) all failed to impress.

This season we will once again analyze the three major positions looking for the best and worst values according to the oddsmakers. This list should be used alongside your normal rankings in order to highlight players that are being drafted too high or low.

Quarterback

Player

Odds (8/29)

Oddsmaker Rank

ESPN Rank

Difference

Drew Brees

+550

1

5

4

Ben Roethlisberger

+750

2

6

4

Andrew Luck

+900

3

4

1

Philip Rivers

+900

3

11

8

Matt Ryan

+1000

5

21

16

Aaron Rodgers

+1100

6

2

-4

Eli Manning

+1100

6

9

3

Carson Palmer

+1200

8

7

-1

Kirk Cousins

+2000

9

13

4

Matthew Stafford

+2100

10

16

6

Blake Bortles

+2200

11

10

-1

Tom Brady

+2500

12

8

-4

Joe Flacco

+2600

13

23

10

Russell Wilson

+3300

14

3

-11

Ryan Tannehill

+3300

14

20

6

Derek Carr

+3300

14

14

0

Ryan Fitzpatrick

+3500

17

19

2

Tony Romo

+4000

18

32

14

Jameis Winston

+5000

19

18

-1

Cam Newton

+5000

19

1

-18

Brock Osweiler

+5000

19

22

3

Andy Dalton

+5000

19

17

-2

Jay Cutler

+5750

23

24

1

Marcus Mariota

+6250

24

15

-9

Alex Smith

+7500

25

27

2

Teddy Bridgewater

+8500

26

26

0

Robert Griffin III

+10000

27

25

-2

Sam Bradford

+10000

27

29

2

Mark Sanchez

+12500

29

39

10

Tyrod Taylor

+12500

29

12

-17

Jared Goff

+13500

31

36

5

Blaine Gabbert

+15000

32

31

-1

Geno Smith

+15000

32

42

10

Carson Wentz

+17500

34

41

7

Colin Kaepernick

+20000

35

35

0

Jimmy Garoppolo

+27500

36

34

-2

Josh McCown

+27500

36

38

2

Paxton Lynch

+30000

38

37

-1

It’s important to note that these oddsmakers rankings only examine the odds to lead the league in passing yards, so the rankings for mobile quarterbacks are highly skewed. These oddsmaker rankings fail to correctly pinpoint the value of players like Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson and Marcus Mariota, so they will not be included in either list.

In terms of potential value, Matt Ryan looks like a late round steal. The Falcons quarterback has the fifth-best odds of leading the league in passing yards, yet he’s just the 21st-ranked quarterback according to ESPN. Our oddsmakers rankings don’t account for statistical categories like touchdowns or interceptions, but this type of inconsistency is tough to ignore.

Given the depth of the position, I’m a big proponent of waiting to select a quarterback this season. Instead of taking an elite quarterback early, managers would be well served to wait until the later rounds and take some combination of Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. By selecting the best matchup on a week-to-week basis, managers may be able to replicate the production of top-ranked quarterbacks.

Underrated: Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins

Overrated: Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer

Running Back

Player

Odds (8/29)

Oddsmaker Rank

ESPN Rank

Difference

Adrian Peterson

+600

1

1

0

Todd Gurley

+750

2

2

0

Doug Martin

+900

3

8

5

Lamar Miller

+900

3

7

4

Ezekiel Elliott

+975

5

3

-2

Le'Veon Bell

+1100

6

6

0

LeSean McCoy

+1400

7

12

5

Jamaal Charles

+1400

7

11

4

Eddie Lacy

+1700

9

10

1

Thomas Rawls

+1700

9

16

7

David Johnson

+1900

11

4

-7

Arian Foster

+2000

12

24

12

Carlos Hyde

+2000

12

14

2

C.J. Anderson

+2000

12

15

3

Jonathan Stewart

+2200

15

13

-2

Matt Jones

+2500

16

23

7

Devonta Freeman

+2500

16

5

-11

Mark Ingram

+2500

16

9

-7

DeMarco Murray

+3300

19

21

2

Ryan Mathews

+3300

19

20

1

Jeremy Hill

+3300

19

18

-1

Latavius Murray

+3300

19

19

0

Justin Forsett

+3500

23

39

16

Jay Ajayi

+3500

23

37

14

Jeremy Langford

+3500

23

22

-1

Frank Gore

+3500

23

28

5

Matt Forte

+3500

23

17

-6

Melvin Gordon

+4500

28

25

-3

Chris Ivory

+5000

29

33

4

Rashad Jennings

+6000

30

29

-1

LeGarrette Blount

+7500

31

43

12

Ameer Abdullah

+7500

31

32

1

Isaiah Crowell

+10000

33

41

8

T.J. Yeldon

+10000

33

30

-3

Chris Johnson

+10000

33

56

23

Derrick Henry

+10000

33

34

1

Giovani Bernard

+17500

37

31

-6

James Starks

+30000

38

42

4

Jordan Howard

+30000

38

57

19

Tevin Coleman

+30000

38

44

6

These oddsmakers ratings are an imperfect measurement, but it does reveal some valuable information. For instance, Doug Martin has the third-best odds of leading the league in rushing despite being ESPN’s 8th ranked running back. Occasionally these discrepancies can be explained by a player’s role within their offense. Do they receive goal line carries? Do they offer value as a receiver? Are they injury prone? These are all serious concerns for Martin, which makes him the ultimate boom or bust player.

In order to fully exploit these oddsmakers rankings, you need to compare similar players. David Johnson has the 11th best odds to league the league in rushing, but he’s also the favorite to lead the league in total touchdowns. Jamaal Charles has better odds of leading the league in rushing yards, but that doesn’t make him a superior player. Charles has suffered several major injuries over his career, which makes him a huge risk. Johnson provides additional value as a receiver, which needs to be taken into consideration. For what it’s worth, anybody drafting David Johnson should select backup Chris Johnson as a handcuff in later rounds.

In comparing similar players, I would strongly recommend that fantasy managers select Lamar Miller over the higher ranked Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have a tremendous offensive line and I have no doubts about Elliott’s talent, but he’s not a proven commodity.

The ESPN ranking system is based on a standard scoring format, so obviously the results are skewed for anybody participating in a PPR league. That also helps explain why two of the most overrated wide receivers (Julian Edelman and Randall Cobb) are undersized, possession receivers. That said, one of my favorite sleepers falls in the same category.

During his rookie season, Willie Snead tallied 69 receptions for 984 yards in 15 games. Despite that production and his prominent role in a pass-heavy offense, Snead is currently the 43rd ranked receiver. He’s ranked behind popular lottery tickets Kevin White and Sterling Shepard, but neither of those players have played a single NFL snap. Drew Brees is the favorite to lead the league in passing yards, it’s fair to expect even better numbers from Snead this season.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.