Even when interest rates start to rise, however, they’re likely to rise slowly. History suggests that the Fed prefers to make small, incremental changes rather than sudden, large shifts (the financial crisis in 2008, when the Fed dramatically slashed interest rates, was a notable exception). Most Fed policymakers think that rates won’t return to a more “normal” 3% to 4% level until 2017.

There’s also the possibility that interest-rate rises won’t get very far before the economy starts to lose steam. The euro zone, Sweden, Norway, and Australia have all suffered that fate in recent years. The US could face a similar situation if the Fed overestimates the strength of the economy and raises rates too soon.