"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national blessing...it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country."
—Andrew Jackson, letter, April 26, 1824

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

I am so close to a full blown rant post filled with countless 4 letter words. You need one, I need one and the antagonists deserve one. This crud is so out of hand. You know it. I know it. "They" know it. Hell, we all know it and sit aimlessly on our hands as if nothing can or should be done.

Like trying to give a sick child medicine, they resist and resist. Well little Christopher, you won't get any better till you take your medicine. But it tastes bad daddy. Well son, if you don't take it you won't get better. Sadly our nation is a lot like little Christopher. Taking the medicine and dumping it into the plant down the hall and claiming he took it. Dad can't figure out why Christopher is not getting any better and why the plants keep dying. Does this story sound familiar? Well our "child" is not getting any better and plants are dying all over the place. By the time we do get around to taking our medicine (cause we'll have been admitted to the ER in a comatose state) it may be to late.

Fantasy land does exist. You are living in it. The fantasy is that things are getting better. That the worst has come and gone. That this employment report will make all things better. That the BLS is not reporting BS. That the ratings agencies are honest and truthful. That the banks are not really insolvent. That the $27 trillion spent to solve our issues did not go to waste (or to the banksters). That the reflation trade will make everything better. That regulation is not the problem. That corruption does not exist. That government intervention is not the only reason GDP is above zero. That the markets are not manipulated. That monetization does not exist. That the price of gold is not and never has been manipulated. That the new health care bill is a glorious thing. That our "president" has held every promise he made during his campaign. That our president is a legal citizen. Shall I continue, or do you get my drift? Reality has been skewed worse now than any time in history.

How the heck we are all not in the streets raising total hell is beyond me. I assume we have been conditioned to a point (like rats in a maze or a cage). We have become so complacent that to react to anything is waaaay to much trouble. We are an ill informed, worthless (literally), lazy, unmotivated, disconnected, selfish, self centered, arrogant nation. We are collectively the most pathetic group of individuals on the planet. A bunch of spoon fed drones. Our forefathers would truly be ashamed of whet we have become.

They fought for this? I don't think so. They did not fight and die for us to be a bunch of freeloaders. They fought for us to be free. Well folks, your freedom is being taken bit by bit right in front of your eyes and apparently you either don't give a darn or you ... well, don't give a darn. See those cameras on the corners? How about "legal" wire taps or naked body scanners in the airports. Homeland security "in the name of terrorism" has stolen so many of our God given or "constitutional" rights that there may not be any left.

Realistically our "president" has become a Fascist ruler given virtually unlimited powers in the name of the Patriot Act. Do you know some of the items that were in that "health care" bill? Ever heard of Section 203 and the Civil National Security Force or the Ready Reserve force? (h/t M33). Remember him speaking of a "national security force" during his campaign? Not sure what the heck that has to do with HC, but it sure was in there. Anyway, there is his second promise kept (first was health care). This is some scary stuff. I suggest you take a look.

In case you have not heard House Minority leader John Boehner's closing argument against the health care reform bill, here it is - Did anyone know what was in it? Was it transparent as promised. Was it slammed thru without allowing time for review as promised? Or as Pelosi said, we'll just have to pass it to find out what's in it.

Folks, it is really bad out there. The global financial system is about to implode. It will. It is beyond repair. Hundreds of trillions (or maybe even Quadrillions) of nasty toxic waste has been laid out there by the banksters to prop up the global Ponzi scheme (and to profit handsomely from). Our pension to borrow our way out of budget deficits (or any deficit period) has finally caught up with the world. Would you give any significant sum of money to an irresponsible neighbor whose is out of work, whose home is being foreclosed on and is about to file for bankruptcy? Say hello to Greece and the rest of the PIIGS. They will be the first domino to fall. They can't borrow any more and no one will lend to a lost cause. Can't you see this? (well, you can, but John Q Public has no friggin clue cause of the ever informant and truthful MSM.) Why the hell do you think the banks are hoarding cash and not lending? Because they know the worst is not over. They know the depths of the issues that face this nation financially. They know what they have "off balance sheet" and it ain't pretty. They know the rules have been changed to rig the game and if (or the 'remotely' possible when) the rules change back nothing will ever be the same. So the big grab is on.

I am extremely disappointed in our leaders for letting this happen (starting with the Clinton administration and every elected official since - some may make a case for going back as far as Nixon which I can agree with). What the hell were they thinking? Who were they really serving us or the special interests (that can donate ad nauseum to campaigns now thanks to the fine bunch in office now)? Sadly this whole mess will come to an end, but not thru any significant corrective actions. Our hand will be forced. The patient will be critically ill and puking up a lung before any real corrective measures will be taken.

Please do your part to unseat every official that is in office now (other than Ron Paul and a few select others). Please support move your money, audit the fed, Americans for a Balanced Budget Amendment,Get Involved
and other worthwhile groups that are trying to make a difference.We can win our country back. It will be a painful fight, but a purging is necessary. So lets start on the hill and work our way from there. If we don't, America may not survive as you know it today.

UPDATE 2:Greece Heads Back To Square One As EU's Bazooka Was Nothing More Than A Water Pistol "Europe's rescue plan for Greece is now bank at square one. The reason the plan failed is there never really was a plan to begin with, just bazooka talk." Hate to say I've been telling you this all along. You would have thought differently from whay world leaders and the MSM have told you. I'm telling you that you can not believe one thing they say.

Minis dropped 5 on the ADP news and have reached a support line I have at 1163 off of the 3/15 low. If that cracks next stop is 55. The quarter is over. Statements have been printed.

SPX 60m - Same chart as yesterday, but it is the best I got right now. 30m and 60m drifting south with the dailys falling as well. The weeklys had the F Sto whipsaw at the top, but are possibly getting a S Sto bear cross as we speak. For the bears, hopefully these trends can not be reversed and the long overdue sell off continues with even more strength.

Dollar - trending down and set a lower low overnight. It should be at some sort of support here, but if not there is a support line near 80.5.
Oil - Spiking this am. Nearing resistance line just above 84. 86.5 should be the max if it continues to run.
NG- I think it is turning for a pop. (stupid I know, but someone had to be the village idiot every now and then)
Gold - Stuck under a resistance line. It may churn up but that's it.
EUR/USD - At resistance fighting to hold support at the 61.8% fib off of the great rise. We all should expect nothing but continued weakness till the euro exists no longer.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Let it fall and park it in SSO is another winner. Imagine that as the markets again cycle the 30m minis to a bearish divergence early on setting up a nice rally off of support. Today was a little different as the minis did take out and back test a LT support line. ADP tomorrow and passover may have kept a lid on things today.

Ireland may be first in line for the role of austerity king as Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks, Institutes Austerity. Let them be the gunny PIIGS in this fiasco and lay the model for how not/to take the banks under authority. I'm sure Ben will have his ear to the ground and will be taking notes as austerity measures will hit here eventually (well, maybe after Greece, Italy, Spain and then half the EU. "As disclosed, Ireland has instituted a "Bad Bank" concept to acquire 1,200 loans, or €81 billion worth, at a 47% discount. Sounds about right. Of course, the US financial system still carries most of its loans at about par: you see we have a printer and they don't, so we can do whatever we want"

Your Greece default/soap opera article of the day comes from naked capitalism. Auerback: Greece and the EuroZone: Angie, Ain’t it Time to Say Goodbye? This is a good primer for why the Greece situation possibly it happened and why a messy default may be the only answer. How Greece (and the remaining PIIGS get out of their debt laden holes is beyond me. Sacrifices will have to be made. Austerity measures will exist. My question is, if overextended borrowing got you into this mess, then how is picking up another $22bn gonna help? If they can't afford the debt now and if we all know Greece will default eventually, then why not go ahead and face the music?

Since there is not fraud or corruption to worry about we'll most likely not have banking issues like Ireland. Wait, what's that ZH reported -Former SEC Staffer Blasts The Regulator's Short Selling Ban Lunacy, Calls Decision Purely Motivated By Politics. Funny CNBS did not pick that one up to dispense to the masses. "The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to restrict short selling was a political decision rather than one based on evidence, according to a former agency official who says it may set a precedent for future decisions." And what politics was involved pray tell? Why, the type that would make the new president incredibly unpopular even before he was sworn in. It becoming increasingly clear with each passing day that this country's equity market is nothing but a sham and a teleprompter-friendly mirror before which Obama can act glum, even as the very regulators allow the market to be manipulated in a way that encourages risk taking, and thus delay and inevitable and terminal crash." There goes that "crash" word again."Sham" and "regulators allowing the market to be manipulated" are strong statements - not really - only if you work for the MSM.

Rigged markets hugh?Don't Invest In Ridiculously-Rigged (And Thin) Markets from Denninger was inspired by a recentTavakoli piece about cornering the gold markets, ETF's and supply. Scam? Nah, futures traders and the banks would never conspire to enter ridiculous positions and try to corner the market like the Hunt brothers did. If you own paper gold (ETF), look out. Denninger says if you own physical gold, "I'll stay away from this one - the criminals have proved that they can intentionally falsify the valuation of trillions of dollars in "assets" on balance sheets and otherwise cheat with wild abandon, but nobody will bring charges. There is no reason to believe that you or I will be the ones who are able to get through the tiny little door if indeed this is the game that is being run, and every reason to believe that instead of the starry-eyed profits you dream of you will instead suffer a monstrous loss." Me, I have no opinion cause it is all so screwed up no one will be able to value the physical gold cause no one will ever allow an audit of their tungsten in stock. Read the Tavakoli piece. It is required reading.

How do you value gold by the way?The Case for Position Limits: What is the 'Spot Price' of Gold and Silver And How Is It Set? is the question asked in a post from Jesse's Cafe American. "I had not been able to obtain the actual calculation used by any of the principle quote providers. And I am not saying that they are doing anything wrong at all. Or right for that matter, since I do not audit them or look over their shoulder. I do not know how accurate anyone's reportage might be, or how to explain the discrepancies between the futures prices and the spot prices that occur all too frequently these days. How can one without more transparent knowledge?" I'm telling you the meltdown will lead to massive confusion one day and no one will know how much gold will be worth. No audit = no value and we all know we will never get any sort of truthful audit. Till then the scam rolls on. Here is a video from INO where they forecast that the price of gold will remain range bound for the next year. I tend to want to agree with them at this time.

Mish must be losing it. This post is great. Searching For Jobs - Just How Bad Is It? This one is quite timely with the rosy ADP number coming out tomorrow. You see when there are laid off graphic designers and teachers applying for pooper scooper jobs at kennels there must be issues with hiring and availability of quality work. The union comparison of cat to dog scoopers really underscores the 'crap' that the unions drive and require to drive up all costs associated with their existence.

Washington's blog has thisDodd's Financial "Reform" Bill Is Nothing but a Placebo for a Very Sick Economy. you may have seen this already, but if you have not, our government's (Dodd's) idea of "reform" is another hollow bill that does nothing. "But Senator Dodd is trying to push through a financial "reform" which bill won't do anything to break up the too big to fails, or do much of anything at all. It's got a reassuring name and a nice, sugary taste ... but there's no real medicine in it." The TBTF's must be broken up. It will happen, only after they have decimated the nation and it will be yet another inconsequential act by our government.

That is enough for tonight. More great news hugh? Give it time. The great unraveling will come. it may take years, but it will come.

Big news week plus the holidays make for an interesting and daring combination. The minis appear to be wedging up as they climb a support line with little resistance above and multiple support points below. Little pop on the Case-Shiller number.

Economic Calendar - Redbook, Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence today with ADP and a slew of others tomorrow.(Plenty of BS from the BLS this week)

SPX 60m -The bears get nothing till that lower trendline cracks. When it does I expect a minimum of 1121 to 1128 as a target. This pattern should be ending, but with this market you never know. We know from the pst below a corrective is in order, but we also know the market can remain overbought for extended periods. There is excessive bullish sentiment. The dollar is trending down. The weeklys appear to be trying to roll over. Stay on your toes is all I can say.

Monday, March 29, 2010

This is a daily chart with daily indicators. This is not some weak puny little 60 or 30m chart, but a daily chart. The divergences on this chart are real and not your imagination. The MACD bear cross is real. The MACD hist falling off a cliff is real. The Slow Sto bear cross and plummet is real. The divergences on Williams, Force, PPO and MFI are real. ADX is really falling. Yes, Ultimate is falling. Yes Accum/Dist is in orbit. SPXA50 is at 444. So, you tell me if it is normal that the market was up 6.63 points today, over 1/2 a percent?

The market does defy gravity and any force of nature that could pull it down. With no regulation, rampant corruption, and autobots (more like Decepticons) controlling all the trading in an extremely thin market nothing natural or of any statistical measure really matters any more. Listening to the UBS pit trader run the show today was astounding. Like a hungry lion with an insatiable appetite, nothing was going to get by his marching orders to lift the price at any cost. This is some really screwed up stuff if you are a realist. If you are a standard sheeple without any conscience or inclination to achieve, none of this matters to you.

I have been behind the manipulation theme for over a year now. I get it. It is real, but again my frustration boils over. This is a load of crap. This is, in the name of saving the union, destroying the fabric of our constitution. The raping of America for the glory of the banks has gone to far, and I have really had enough. It is out of control and no one is doing a damn thing to stop it. You can kiss everything you know goodbye, cause when this is over there will be nothing left. Our dignity as a nation is gone. We have been sold out.It will crash one day. There is no recovery. We have done nothing to address the core credit problems that caused this mess. They have simply prolonged the pain and suffering thru a massive waste of money (or transfer of wealth to the banks) in the name of reflation.

We have 8 (EIGHT) months of cash flow left as a nation (yes, this includes the 1.9 trillion they just extended to the treasury ceiling). Do you care to tell me where they will make up the difference when this fairy tale ends? That's right, taxes and real budget cuts and both are gonna really hurt. March 29, 2010 Total Debt Subject To Limit: $12,629,674,000,000

I hope everyone had a good weekend. With All the action this week (see Economic Calendar below) picking a direction here would be meaningless. Sure the indicators say overbought and the economy is a total mess, but that means nothing. You have to roll with the punches. Play what the Fed and the BD's give you. You are playing their game and have to play by their rules. Easter week, so we have a short week and trading may be light.

Economic Calendar -HUGE week. With ADP Wednesday (a well timed misleading GS number thrown out some time mid weak and some more BS from the BLS), Thursday will be huge with all sorts of stuff and Friday you should know is the big jobs report.What this all adds up to is a big Monday next week IMO.

Comparison chart - SPX, Oil, TNX and the dollar are having a party and gold has decided not to join in. The inverse relationship of SPX to the Dollar broke down back in December. The dollar has strengthened considerably and the SPX has ignore this run. This should change. A stronger dollar is not necessarily a good thing for the markets. I guess their argument now is that the price of the dollar to the market is "relative". LOL, that's funny, kinda like the price of gold being manipulated is "relative" as well.

SPX -Can they reverse the trend in the daily indicator chart? It would not surprise me. Remember this is a huge week as mentioned above, then you have to throw in the quarter ending scenario (they want to hold those balances up for a good statement print). This chart looks really bearish (like the top may be in bearish). Beauty is only skin deep though and we all know what the inside of this monster looks like.

SPX 60m - The 15 and 30m charts are oversold, the minis being up a little over 4 and price sitting on support a pop this morning should only complete the current corrective or flag/pennant that is forming.

SPX Weekly - The weekly SPX chart says that a top could be near, but it still has some strength. RSI5 is above where the market has peaked in the past and overbought. F Sto got a bear cross last week. S Sto is no longer climbing and may possibly be setting up a bear cross in the next week or two. OBV is at the point it has reversed recently. What I want you to see id the relationship between SPXA50 and the NYMO. While it is not necessary, the last several tops have been marked by a top in the SPXA50 combined with a divergence in the NYMO. This has been very reliable. If we are to get some sort of manufactured pop this week thru manipulation of the employment data that may set the divergence for the top. 5 out of the past 6 weeks up to set a higher high is impressive. Bernanke is proving his worth as possibly the best market manipulator ever (but that is really not that hard when there are no regulations or rules to play by and you have no morals).

Based on the dailys I am expecting continued weakness. Possibly a lot of weakness, BUT with the short trading week and the BS BLS coming, I MUST CAUTION the shorties about more strength in the market. I am no longer swing trading anything. It is much better to hit and run. Watch the indicators and do not be surprised at anything. Until that weekly chart confirms a trend change more upside churn is still possible.

Friday, March 26, 2010

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Dailys and 60m both pretty darn bearish. After the sell off yesterday (that was largely unnoticed by the masses cause it was an up down thing) you might think it has had enough. I'm not so sure bout that. The intraday up/down yesterday had little net effect other than driving the indicators into a more bearish stance. I quite honestly don't see why SPX can't make it down to 52 or 42 in a hurry. The lower low taking out 66 was nice. 52 is the next low that needs to get dusted. There really is not much to support any fall from here to 1115.

Yesterday the minis IMHO made a better chart to signal the reversal. The divergences on the 30 and 15m to the peak were really clear and made for a well timed trade. The point of this is that you do not need to chart both, but you do need to be able eyeball the indicators and see a trend developing. We all know the market is toppy and what the dailys and 60m have to say, but to time the entries you have to dig down a little.

60m SPX -I like this chart cause it shows how we dumped out of the last wedge and hopefully it will make a good comparison for what is to come. The last wedge fall was a beauty call that I had. It is even more overbought coming into this reversal. Yesterday was just a taste of what is to come. First that 50ma needs to crack then look for the bear cross to confirm trend change.

Dollar - 60m has a divergence that says near term weakness. I have to warn you that the weeklys are overbought and a bull whipsaw is happening in an overbought S Sto.
Natgas - I may quit reporting on this till the 3.25 level, but you may get a pop anywhere between here and the 3.81 level which is the 61.8% retracement.

Oil - Trending down. Should continue to remain range bound for a while (unless a war or something).
Gold - Might churn a little while the dailys get a bottom set.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

At 11:45 I was so pissed off that both my HP (10bII - I hate the reverse math) and my coffee cup had left sizable marks on the wall opposite my desk. The dam melt up was happening again, and I had finally had enough to resort to throwing and yelling and blowing out about 1,000 capillaries in my cranium. I then got composed, noticed the perfect short set up and, well, I'm all happy now.

This manipulation bullshit must stop. Hell, it does not matter if it stops now or not. We're beyond toast. We're beyond friggin any measure of doom. They can't stop it. Like a crack or meth addict, the need to perpetuate the Ponzi must be driven at any cost. They are in too deep and no matter what Bernanke says about an "exit strategy", there is not one. The game is over. Do you know how hard it is to describe something that must be stopped but can't be stopped cause if it gets stopped it all collapses, but if you don't stop it it will collapse anyway? So they trudge on thinking we'll never notice (actually it has gotten so blatant that they don't give a shit if we notice or not cause the SEC is not doing a damn thing to stop it).

Please see Some Observations On SPY VWAP And Block Manipulation As FSA Launches Probe On Front-Running Of Block Trades. This is mind boggling, the lack of regulation of any sort. ZH gives the SEC their due here, "When are the useless excuses for human detritus over at the SEC going to do a comparable probe? Oh wait, they are watching kiddy and tranny porn as we speak, and counting their Wall Street salaries once they leave their cushy taxpayer subsidized offices. Sorry, go back to demanding an increase in your budget you worthless examples of reverse evolution. In the meantime, we present some obvious block manipulation data in the SPY which if we had anything remotely resembling a market regulator would be immediately probed." Apparently you can give the SEC hard data that proves manipulation or fraud (think Madoff) and they don't do squat about it. Maybe the banks fall under some GSE act now and are not punishable anymore. Shapiro need to be shown the door with the rest of her agency. This post is evidence (to me) of the PPT hard at work.

Friggin dig this BS. The battle over your 401(k) assets is getting heated up. First the government was (and still is) considering forcing you to buy treasuries with the funds, now get a load of this Bend Over America: Now The SEIU Wants Your 401k! Nah, forget all those nasty things Mish just said about the unions being greedy and self absorbed, I think they are the spawn of the devil and Mish may have been to kind. "One of the nation's largest labor unions, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), is promoting a plan that will centralize all retirement plans for American workers, including private 401(k) plans, under one new "retirement system" for the United States." Let me say it for you may I, FUCK YOU! You now have two potential reasons to see a mass exodus out of the 401(k) market (well, excluding the 20 million other reasons some have already left their plans). Let me say it again, FUCK YOU SEIU!

Frustrations aside, it wound up being a good day. Sadly reveling in creating wealth from the collapse of this once great nation is a little lopsided. Well, hey, they created the standard. At least I'm gonna do it legally and with transparency. Hang on. It is gonna be a wild ride. Remember when I discussed the potential need for ammo and seeds, yeah, we're getting closer. Great Depression v.II is coming.

Nothing like coming in to the office and having the e-minis at higher highs.I'm not sure if some of the focus needs to shift to the action in bonds or currencies, but they need to be watched more closely. How they allow Liesman to continue spouting his crap every morning is beyond me.

Economic calendar - Busy day. Jobs at 8:30, Bernanke at 10, Natgas at 10:30, auctions and then Timmaayyy at 1:30

SPX Daily- The push in the minis is somewhat surprising (is it really?). As I indicated in the E-mini post below "See if it gets pinched off running the upper pink TL and green support line here then reverses". Well we're nearing that point of recognition climbing the lower green support line and nearing the upper pink resistance line (LOL - resistance lines, those are so 1970's).

The daily chart below says we should have started falling three days ago. No, I did not call it, just noted where my signals would have normally triggered a sell or top call. The divergence in the RSI5 has further confirmed (possibly - trying to call anything in this market to go down can be a severe CLM these days) those signals.

SPX weekly - Now, this chart may not nail it to the day, but it should nail it. For the big turn you all know I am simply waiting on RSI14 to cross that red support line. Follow the red lines that mark the tops. So far on this climb every turn has been marked by the SPXA50 being over 400 and a nice divergence in the NYMO. This is not necessary, but it has trended that way. With the way RSI5, CCI and OBV are acting (busting solid divergence lines), that says to me this is the final blow off top.

SPX 60m (for good measure) - Wedges ending with overthrows. Now all those red circles are gonna get nixed this am with the minis where they are as the gap up ramp job pump and dump continues.

Now you may ask, Shanky, how the hell are you not just jumping up and down screaming top and sell? Simple, this is a manipulated bullshit market. I do think we sell off today, but two problems exist. 1) The banks need more capital, so they may leak it down for the last grab. The last push for survival and the last plunge in Americas ass to complete the rape job of the middle class. They have to keep sentiment positive thru that push/thrust. 2) They need some nice QE prints on those statements to keep the normal investors in the dark and for one last giant fee grab.

They may not be able to control the markets anymore. The issues with the PIIGS may be getting out of hand. We are so close to a DEFCON 5000 meltdown. Be patient. Let it come to you. Laugh in their face, cause you know their game. They have slipped up. Their money grab got out of control cause they could not control the surging greed. Now they will pay. Game over. Sadly they destroyed a great nation in the process.

The bond markets and FX are showing serious signs of cracking. The stress levels are super high. Keep an eye on TBT. Might be about to break out. Had a "slight" volume buying spike yesterday. I think we'll start seeing some huge dumps here very soon. I am very tempted to call a top if not the top (yes, we're getting near that point in time) at the open based on the position of the minis, but we need to let it play out. Further upside really is unfathomable at these levels, but then again I said that back in April of last year.

Bears - If it can crack that green support line right here then get thru the 50% line of the pink channel the bears may make it to to 50 to 47 area again. If the pink line goes you are looking at 1112. One would think that the recent divergence in the daily RSI would signal a bigger reversal is coming. (One would logically assume such action, but in this market you never know - that may be bullish LOL).

Bulls - If the green line holds or the cream dashed support line below it the march can continue.

Bottom line is we're in a really peculiar area right here. See if this run is finally about to roll over and about to break to the right (switch from Green to Pink). See if it gets pinched off running the upper pink TL and green support line here then reverses or if the yellow channel holds. These are just me thinking out loud. I think the 60m has some more downward pressure to work.The fibs are 56, 52 and 47 for this run. 52 and 47 would have to hit Friday if the yellow channel actually is in play. The 61 area is key support here.

Monthly chart - Indicators show no strength here. From the '01 low to the '08 high it formed a channel. Then a collapse to the 50% retracement (gray box) in '08. That set the yellow TL. The rise to backtest the channel and now cracking the 61.8% retracement of the rise in '09 as it channels down.

Daily chart - The gray box is the retracement zone surrounding the 50 to 61.8% retracement. That crack of the 1.34 level is surprising. Let's see if she wants that lower longer term yellow support line or the gray one below that.

$DXY is gapping up this morning. You all know that I have been torn with the dollar being in an ABC corrective or something larger with an $89 target. At this time, if the rest of the world is going to collapse someone has to go up (that would be the greenback). Have no fear, it will collapse eventually as well.This chart has room to run.

Portugal takes one on the chin, but the overbought stratospheric market will apparently shake it off. Apparently just a flesh wound. The minis fell hard right to the support line I showed you yesterday morning that runs up from the last major low at 1042.

I'm struggling with the call this morning. The choppy topping action, consolidation and severe overbought conditions are wearing on me a little bit. Last night I actually started tinkering with some (most likely premature) topping lines on a few charts. Even before I heard the Portugal news I was leaning down today for some reason. The charts are getting really ugly and hard to get a grip on especially on an intraday basis. While my gut is usually very good, you can't trust in anything other than the GS bots runnin and gunnin this market for all it is worth. You have to remain with the trend till it is proven busted.

The choppy consolidation broke out nicely when resistance was breached. SPX put in a massively bullish 60m candle, and I'm not sure that the breakout can be ignored (not really sure if it can be trusted either). That said, you gotta keep on riding the train. Support has been laid on the SPX at numerous levels in the past week. Resistance is futile now at new highs. She may be flying above the clouds here with a tail wind. Maybe she'll run to 1214 and just get it over with finally. Sorry for the confusion this am. Not sure if emotions are taking over or if my alter ego is popping up (no you're not, yes I am, no you're not, yes I am).If we stick with the charts we will not be misled. It is getting hard playing with longs, cause you know you are playing with fire up here. If you play shorties, please don't be a moron and accept huge losses. Have a plan. Set a stop. Take you losses and walk away. Live to fight another day. If you are long, enjoy it while it lasts, you to will need an exit plan soon as well.

SPX Tops and Bottoms Chart - This will allow you so comb thru a ton of info and see what the indicators should show at the major buy and sell levels for the past few years. We are very close. GL!

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

No, not that the HC bill got signed (stupid stuff like that happens every day - I believe something like 37 states are already moving with regulation to fight the HC bill). I'm actually stunned at the melt up today. Yeah, I know, I called it this morning, but that does not mean that I can't be annoyed buy the perpetual Ponzi market.

The bulls are so fat and happy with their bloated statements that they will push anything higher that GS or JPM tell them to. As long at the BS BLS, CNBS and the MSM keep on reporting the "news" and "figures" this melt job will never end. Heck, even O's approval rating is up 7 points in the last 5 days. Hell, they will ramp anything these days. With insolvent banks, bankrupt states and 20% unemployment who gives a shit as theNo Volume Meltup Continues, Just 251 More Days Until Dow 36,000.

Please see Top Analyst: "Developed Market Governments Are Insolvent By Any Reasonable Definition". Really anyone (other than those that work for the Fed or Treasury that could not see the last bubble(s) coming) should be able to see this next bubble, but you would not know it based on the markets ramp job. "In other words, by assuming huge portions of the risk from banks trading in toxic derivatives, and by spending trillions that they don't have, central banks have put their countries at risk from default." SocGen's Dylan Grice (yes, this is basically from a TBTF analyst) has this to say, "Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalizations as to why such inflation will make everything OK . Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold."

Mish analyzes one of Denninger's earlier posts in Bernanke Wants to End Bank Reserve Requirements Completely: Does it Matter? What Chaos will Result? End reserve requirements? you got that. Reserves are YOUR DEPOSITS. That means they don't have to keep anything in the bank (like your money). The end answer is "Exactly the kind of banking chaos we have already seen! Nothing has changed. Expect more chaos because it is coming." The post does a nice job of explaining the expansion of the money supply, fractional reserves and how your money every night disappears and wonders off to lala land to grow. This is really screwed up. Sure, we're supposed to "trust" them that if I want to go get my $100k out of the bank it will "be there". Shuh...

Denninger is on a roll today. Lots of short and saweet posts hammering everything. Now we have this wonderful bill that will make everything better (shuh...right, maybe for the insurance companies and related industries). Have you gotten your rate increase yet? This dude has in That Didn't Take Long.... Just wait till April 01. "If your value in the marketplace is $20/hour, with a 2,000 hour man-year of work (50 weeks x 40 hours/week) your economic value in the economy is $40,000 (gross.) From this your employer is going to have to take $10,000 out to avoid being fined, which means you now make $15/hour. Then you pay taxes (FICA and Medicare) on that. You'll likely get back the rest of your federal income tax (especially if you have a family) but your out-of-pocket medical expenses will still be that $10,000 either way." So, this will encourage hiring and lower costs to you and me? the estimates on increased taxes range from $500B to $1.2T. This is just the medicine the "recovered" economy needed right now. This one will backfire badly.

I'm stunned actually cause they are finding ways to make things worse. Massive deflation is coming (Inflation? Where?), then I believe global default is coming (they are setting it up with little things like "no reserve requirements"). It will be the only solution. If you live in a state that gives you your tax refund in the form of an IOU, congratulations, you are on the cusp of devastation. If you live in one of the PIIGS (that we may be bailing out with our tax dollars) you know what I am talking about. If you are a sheltered sheeple watching the MSM, you have not clue how bad it is out there. The unmentioned derivatives market will implode and then QUADrillions will become the word of the day. Something tells me we won't be able to treat that like the advance from millions to billions to trillions. There will be only one way out, but in the mean time move a long, nothing to see here.

I'm gonna back it up as I do every now and then to give you the big picture using the E-mini (S&P futures).

Weekly chart - P2 or the bull market run. Call it what you like. It is a wedge that is ending (between the green lines). These are bearish formations indicating reversal. The sky blue diagonal trendline is the bear market top line. We see several things here. 1) The market broke thru the top trendline resistance in November. 2) After completing a nice 23.6% retracement of the bull run it backtested the top of the trendline in February. 3) It has moved to set a higher high and is approaching the top resistance line of the bull market again. 4) There is a possible divergence to price being set by RSI and MACD indicating a possible top is near. 5) The minis have completed a 50% retracement of the grand fall. 1224 is the max I can see this run going.

Daily chart - Here is the complete bull run or P2 corrective. The most important things to notice are the overbought indicators on this daily chart. The bear cross on S Sto, the MACD histogram is declining and the recent hard dip in RSI.Notice the fibonacci retracements as potential targets for a fall from here. The higher we go, the greater the relative fall we will have.

Daily drill down - Here you see the higher high and the fib for the climb. You can also see the indicators in more detail that are screaming reversal. There are only 6 red candles in this recent run.

The conclusion is the same as it has been for the past few weeks. The weekly chart is not ready to turn, but the dailys are poised to turn at any moment. You all know I am a permabear, but I have done a good job keeping you on the right side of the trade leaning to the upside in the face of extreme overboughtness. Bottom line is that it is a totally controlled market. It is a rigged casino that is playing with house money (that is your future tax liabilities) that is only one roll of the dice from disaster. The GS bots are playing pong with the MS and JPM bots. we can not compete. We just have to ride the tide. I expect reversal very soon. I think it will happen near a close or overnight. The China deficit, Greece or the other PIIGS, or one of a plethora of other problems will rear it's head and the market will react. It is waaaaaay to quiet now. I don't like it. That divergence in the daily RSI might say a near term top happens this week.

Monday, March 22, 2010

I figure that if they are gonna whack me for everything I got to fund everything I am already not funding, so I'll quit funding what I voluntarily fund and maybe in the end it will be a wash? Look I'm all for the sheeple getting what they need as far as HC is concerned. That's good. What I am not for is the rapid expansion of the welfare state. What I am not for is higher priced drugs so we can pump stock prices and to subsidize other countries needs on what they get to pay for medicine. We are TAPED OUT!

I'm tired of paying the friggin bill for everyone else. You do realize we are doing this thru deficit spending (supporting the rest of the world and neglecting our needs). You do realize that with the debt/GDP ratios this won't work for long. You do realize that the "president" has broken numerous campaign promises (actually I think he's kept his word on about 5% of what he said) mainly the most recent one about no tax increases. Desperate times require desperate measures, that is why we just passed a damn HC bill in the face of the greatest financial disaster any of us will ever experience while in the meantime they allow the banks to run off with something like $23 T of your money and mine. Nice, and you wonder why I get so bitchy.

I did not spend much time today with the news, but a quick glance at Zero Hedge and you know two things 1) Marla and TD are back and 2) the pile of crap is getting deeper by the minute. Tonight's nugget from ZH is this post that is going top make the bull turned bear "China is in a bull market" Cramer look like an even bigger moron than he already does. Stunner: China Set To Announce Record Trade DEFICIT In March."Perhaps this finally explains where all the excess liquidity has gone: with China now not exporting to the US consumer, it has instead re focused on its own "middle" class. This means that Chinese administrators are much more focused on maintaining a stable economy, and will be much more concerned about economic overheating, which goes in line with the recent indications of material liquidity tightening out of Beijing. Market News reports that the actual deficit will come in at $8 billion for March, the first deficit since April 2004, when the gap was $2.26 billion"

Denninger covers the nuts and bolts of the new HC bill (cause I guess he's the kind of guy who reads this stuff in bed - thank goodness someone does) in Health Care: Arbitrage Obama And The Dems. "Businesses will be dropping people like flies from business-covered "insurance"; there will be no reason for anyone as an employer to be providing this "benefit" into an environment where insurance prices will double - and probably double twice - in the next four years. If you think not, look at what was done to credit-card holders in front of the provisions of the CARD act going into effect."

naked capitalism has The Beginning of the End of the Eurozone As We Know It? I told you Greece was not over and the remaining PIIGS will be at the trough sooner or later. "The pressure has not simply put the rescue of Greece into disarray, but appears to have led to some positions being taken that, if they hold, look likely to lead to the partial dissolution of the monetary union. This development would have far-reaching ramifications which are far from well understood, to put it mildly" I suggest you take a look at this. The EU will be different and it will have a dramatic effect.

Washington's blog brings you People Now Trust Bankers Less than Random People on the Street. I have distrusted the bankers for years. They do nothing but prey on you and me for fees and the sale of any instrument that will lock up your assets for the longest period of time (good or not). I hate 'em cause they are raping America and the sheeple of every asset they have. They may be a necessary evil, but hopefully that will change in the near future. "Of course, banks could be untrustworthy in regards to some things - such as valuing their assets, keeping hundreds of billions of dollars worth of liabilities hidden in off-balance sheet sivs, using Repo 105s and other gimmicks to misrepresent their financial health, and doing things like pushing investments to their mom and pop clients while shorting those same investments - and yet be honest in processing normal depository transactions."

Jo Bonner Speaks Against Speaker's Health Care Bill - I thought this was quite nice and you should hear it if you have not. "in hopes the anger will go away. Let me assure you it will not." Damn right it won't. Election season is gonna be a blast this year.

The Minis retraced 61.8% to 1147 of the move from 1136 to 1165 and held at the 1147 support area as well. They have also completed a 23.6 retrace off the 1084 low. I'm really eyeballing the 1135 level at this time (the 38% retrace off of the 1084 low. My target for the SPX fall, if it should, is 1120 to 1117 at this time.

SPX Daily Chart -Sorry, not going to regurgitate all the overbought indicators below. The warning remains in place that it can move higher. The main things IMO are that RSI14 did crack it's support line Friday, RSI5 is falling, the MACD hist is getting worse and the SPXA50 is above 400 and may have peeked (which usually marks the markets peek).

SPX Weekly Chart - As the triangle plays out. The one thing I have wanted for the past couple of weeks is for the weekly MACD hist to put in a positive candle so the market can top. We got it barely last week. Now if the bears can all get lined up, it is possible for some better downside action. The abuse of the upper BB here last week shows the bulls are pushing the limits and the F Sto is looking to possibly bear cross. The other indicators on this chart are not ready yet, but we are getting closer especially as RSI loses some of it's momo.

I should be screaming top. All my signals that I like the most are set on the dailys. RSI busted TL, MACD hist falling, S Sto bear cross, SPXA50 over 400, blah, blah, blah but I'm not biting quite yet. I want to see it. I am leaning hard to the downside, but I do not trust the manipulating bots that are running the show. Stay nimble. I am still cautioning the bears not to get overanxious quite yet. The turn could come at any moment and it will take volume for a serious push. Sentiment is overly bullish. The top is close if not already set. Look at the triangles playing out. As a trader you have to remain willing to play the PPT's games. You are a moron not to. As an investor you need to have your game plan ready for what you will do at the top. Longs need to have a set pain threshold and stops set.

The waiting game continues. Friday morning was fun (the afternoon sucked as a quad opex went off like a total dud). GOOG may effect the market is they announce something. The HC vote will be in the Senate Tuesday I believe. That may be the day for some better action.

Friday, March 19, 2010

OK, quadruple opex, I did not have to move the fibs up this morning, an actual red candle and tournament upsets galore, what's next? Well, one thing I can guarantee is more tournament upsets. Congrats to Incarnate for the early lead. He has a tight pack behind him and another day of first round excitement ahead. One thing I can not guarantee is where the markets will go today.

My gut is a little overactive and I really think it falls after 10:30 or Monday. I bring you the Daily chart here. Unless the RSI is going to continue the ascent of Everest, it will crack the support lines and that should signal the turn is in. As with Everest, the higher you go the less oxygen you have. Sadly they allow supplemental oxygen to assist at higher altitudes and the Fed and the GS bots are more than willing to give that assist.

SPX Daily - This chart is SCREAMING turn. The only issue is there are no divergences. It is possible you may have to remain patient another day or two, but I don't think so.

Good luck today. This post is lacking cause I expect some action, I'm still at home screwing around and I plan on doing more timely posts when and if anything significant occurs. Enjoy the NCAA tournament and have a great weekend. I also have to give a shout out to Little Shanky for going 3 for 3 and making the last out in his first baseball game of the year last night. A 14-2 mercy rule victory. Now can the bears get a mercy rune on this market?

Thursday, March 18, 2010

UPDATE - CRUSHED - ouchie. See my first sentence.$3.81 is the 61.8% retracement for /NG. It has entered what I like to call the "retracement zone - the area between the 50 and 62% retracement levels. You UNG lovers may have to wait another month. Not sure where it can get a bid. I guided you to the $4.24 level. Now let's let this thing settle and regroup.

I am not recommending anything before the call. If you do try a long I highly suggest tight stops. You know I do not like the future of NG and where I think the price is going (3.25 to $2.40), but I am anticipating a possible NT oversold pop. I have lowered my target for UNG from $9.50 to the gap at 9.

Be very careful, we have like a billion year supply on NG and many other factors (uh, like a weak economy) do not bode well for the future on NG right now. This is a nasty chart, but I caution it can get worse. If it pops I'll get on board with a pretty tight trailing stop.

Might be an interesting day. Opex tomorrow, the litany of reports this morning and the slight crack late yesterday in price once again add to all the drama. Sadly the drama always adds up to nothing more than another QE/BOT induced ramp job.CPI and the jobs hit their numbers, so not big surprises there. Market reaction was nothing short of lethargic (like the hangover most traders have this am after all that greeb beer).

Minis are flat after being down as much as 4 overnight. I'm struggling with what chart to bring you this am. Let's look at it this way - 15m - might be headed up, 30m - down, 60m - topping to down, daily - overbought, weekly still climbing but possibly nearing a top. My hunch is that we're getting ready to see more weakness if the 60m candles are right (you know I hate the 60m chart for LT trends, so let's call this a hopeful NT small reversal possibility). The bullish reversal candle late yesterday may help. Price cracked a ST trendline but the 60m chart is being held up by the 10ma right now. If that can crack the bears may get the high ground.

Comparing the major indexes, they all have set higher highs and are exhibiting what I would call a suckers rally to a double top (although we know that is not true cause all buying is being done with your tax dollars hard at work in the greatest pump and dump in history and the bonuses being paid out are at historic levels all while the retail investor stays out of the market).

Looking at the VIX, the inverse wedge to the one I have been showing you every day on SPX is playing out. Now, I am on recod stating that I believe the VIX is at this time has ZERO relevance to anything because the BOTS that trade everything have no emotions, thus no fear. The lack of any significant retail element (uh, that would be humans) renders this index useless IMO.

Something I may begin to use more often will be the VXX. As you can tell in this chart it is very smooth cause of it's futures based components.

Natgas report this am. I will be watching it closely. I have been barking about the $4.24 price level for several weeks now and with price having hit a $4.241 low overnight lets watch that closely. It is horribly oversold NT (not LT) and I have been expecting a pop in UNG to the $9.50 level. Today should be the day the pop comes I believe.

I'm cautiously playing the market right now. Upside risk is still in play as we patiently wait for the top to come. Shorties, USE STOPS! Don't be a meat head for the 25th time in this bull run (not bull market). If the markets run, don't hold. Just get out, let your powder dry and live to fight another day. Be nimble. the turn will come eventually, just make sure you survive to be there when it happens.

Tournament entries need to be in by 12:20 the first tip off of the Florida v. BYU game. We have 28 entries so far. If you want to enter go to this link, join the group shanky's blog and use the PW shanky. Good luck. It will be fun.

ZH -Ben Bernanke Has Become The Pied Piper Of Momoism This is really funny (yet sad at the same time) TD comments on Rosenberg's most recent post. "Who cares about any of this, one may ask. The market can only go up, up, up. Yes, if one considers price discovery to be a function of micro volume block buying by algos who have only been programmed to bid the market up. We broke key resistance levels in the past 2 days, and nothing: no major short covering spree, no influx of new buyers. The market has become a stealth melt up mechanism, driven by who knows what money (mutual funds are out), with shorts out. This is precisely the environment that allowed the market to go bidless overnight in 1987. When will this happen - nobody knows. Although if we continue to antagonize the only major foreigner who has allowed the Fed and the government to embark on its ludicrous policy of fiscal and monetary insanity, we will surely find out very soon."

My new mentor and buddy Rich sent me this one (yes, he is a calming influence in my life right now - I'm sure he hates me). Wednesday's update from Stocktiming.com. When Institutional Investors "shift direction" ... it the post. you need to see the momo chart on this post. Just a bit toppy.

Was that another snow job during the snow storm? You thought Greece was bailed out, right? I knew it was the dumbest thing on the planet to do it, but I was under the impression they had ST financing to get them over the hump (more like Everest). Well, apparently they aren't out of the woods, Wait A Second - I Thought Greece Was Done? Denninger has, "But this time it's different, so I think you should believe our fine friends over in Greece, even though Germany says they won't violate their Constitution (Merkel has repeated this enough times now that she's got to be blue in the face) and the news reports that trickle out say that indeed, Greece has no deal - not in the bag, not on the table, just plain not.". We all know they are in deeptrouble. So deep that all the other nations in just as deep trouble can't bail them out and they can't go to the credit store anymore, so this will be it. Do we finally gt a default?

This is getting a little ridiculous. OK, so now I'm seeing a double throwover (black and green wedge. both have completed A-E formations. The ABC has completed and measured out. The indicators have fought back to overbought levels. It is blowing out the upper BB. No divergences yet. It took out resistance set a new high and did nothing. The dow set a higher high today.

Your daily index comparison shows a "nice grouping" with everyone now at higher highs. That grouping would have me nervous as a bull. I'm just waiting patiently. The weekly his is positive right now but the Stos are not there yet. The hist on MACD is there for a turn. Look for the RSI5 to begin to roll over then you should be able to cut loose.

Happy St. Patty's Day. Will it be yet another green day for the markets? The minis say the open will be at least. I hope my NCAA bracket can make a run thru the tournament like the bulls have this past week. Talk about peeking at the right time, the bulls have really put it all together and appear unstoppable (well, with a little help from you know who and a lot of friends at FINRA, the SEC, the Fed, Treasury and various large banks and BD's). Don't worry folks this ramp job will become a rim job sooner or later, and the facial that the manipulators get for ramping this market to where it is will be the all time greatest.

I have a question. Let's say St. Patrick pulled a Tiger and went and had relations with a few lucky ladies behind the pot-o-gold. Who would you instill as the new Patron Saint of Green? Paulson, Bernanke, Geitner or another? (Note - if you did not wear green today, please don't be a dork and pin something green to your shirt. That only makes it worse. If the ladies want to know where your green is, ask them to use their imaginations. That is much better.)

One of my favorite videos of all time - Mobile, Alabama Leprechaun Crackhead Pot of Gold

SPX Daily - Sadly if you look at the indicators, this run is not near as extended as the run back thru January. You all know that I am watching for the weekly to turn (which ain't ready quite yet). The RSI 14 on the daily now has a well established support line under it. That will be my first key. The MACD hist is trending down. S Sto is embedded.The slope of the upper BB is little resistance.

It is Opex Wednesday. Anything could happen. That daily indicator chart is screaming a turn at any moment, BUT the defenders of freedom and the American way are on the other side and will fight for justice and truth (OK, now you are supposed to read sarcasm and thru the lines of that last statement). I'm gonna keep nibbling at some shorties with really tight stops. I'm not risking anything long at this point even thought the patron Saint of Green may be in charge today. The Dow is 50 points from a higher high. I think they will push that thru and after that all bets are off.

Dollar - Price is sitting on the lower support line running off the 74 low under the 76 low. There is also another diagonal support line. The daily indicators are close to bottoming. The 60m have set divergences. Looks like a turn could be coming soon. If the dollar/SPX correlation is for real this may help us time the turm and confirm a little more patience is still in order.

Oil - Sabre rattling with Iran has the most manipulated market in a tizzy. Not sure about that run up over the last couple of days, but it left the daily and 60m indicators in a nice divergence. If it should continue to run under normal fears and manipulation 86 should be the max. Any real fears and triple digits will be here in record time.

Natgas - Still looking for $4.24. At 4.31 nowand severely oversold. This thing might be like a coiled rubber band. It may pop big time, but just like a rubber ban it will fall back almost as fast as it went up. Looking for a UNG pop to the 9.50 area it it ever occurs.

Gold - Still climbing. If the dollar reverses so will gold. Problem there is that gold is riding a pretty solid lower TL right now and if that cracks it really falls. I just don't see that yet. I'll call a slow churn up for now.

EUR/USD - A reversal of the EUR should be upon us. They don't want it or deserve it, but that is what the charts say. The weeklys are oversold and turning up. The dailys are toppy. This does not work with what I am seeing for the dollar as I see them both needing to correct upwards. Something has to give. I think the globalists manipulating the currencies will move them where they need to be, so why are we even using TA? Bottom line is our banking system is more fraudulant and has all the chips and theirs sucks and is owned by ours, so I think we strengthen and they remain flat to down.

Don't forget Shanky's NCAA tournament challenge. We're up to 26 entries, so that is a good field. Go to the link. Join the group shanky's blog and the PW is shanky. I'll do a post on this later today.

About Shanky

I am a former financial professional that blogs for fun. I enjoy sharing my thoughts with others on my blogs. I hold nothing back and apologize for the foul language in advance, but dire situations require accurate descriptions. Please feel free to contact me with your thoughts or tips at the email address provided. Enjoy!

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