Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Closest I'll Come To Making A Prediction About This Weekend

On the surface the race in Marin this weekend looks a lot like Western States. When you look at most of the pre-race chatter about the men's race the talk is dominated by a "Big 4." The strange thing is how similar the "Big 4" are to what they were at Western States. In each case you have a 2 time former race champion (Koerner and Steidl), a foreign phenom (Jornet and Wyatt), and then Tony and I playing the part of Tony and I.

This is all on the surface though. Below the surface there are 2 major differences between this one and Western States. The largest of these being that it still remains to be seen how many of these "Big 4" actually toe the line on race day. Rumors are flying and it's seeming more and more likely that it will be fewer than 4. The other major difference is the strength of the runners behind these four. To take nothing away from any of the top level runners that ran Western States this year, it was much more clear at Western States that one of "the 4" was almost certain to win the race.

This weekend is much different than that though. Even if these four that are being talked about the most all show up it's not a given that one of us will walk away with the $10k. Mackey, Skaggs, Lundstrom, Heras, Mallarde, Bragg (to name just a few) could all contend for the win.

In my mind Dave should be included with Tony, Uli, Jonathan, and I as part of a big 5. He has probably won more 50 mile trail races than the rest of us combined and has more experience/knowledge on the trails in Marin than any of us. I think some people are uncertain as to what kind of shape he is in right now since he hasn't raced much in the past 18 months. I've run with Dave enough in the past two months to know that his current fitness is not at all in question.

Beyond these guys I've named there are at least a dozen other runners who could have a good day and claw their way onto a podium spot (especially if some of the front guys don't start or don't finish).

Western States was a very competitive race for sure but the depth of the elite runner's in this race is (in my mind) at least double what it was at WS. Many of the top runners will not finish, but there are so many strong runners toeing the line that there are likely to be guys finishing out of the top 10 who are used to battling for the win in most every race they run. It doesn't get any more exciting than that. I just hope that none of the rumors I'm hearing are true and everyone is there and ready to race Saturday.

36 comments:

Best of luck out in the Headlands, Geoff. I look forward to seeing you out there.

As for rumors, I can confirm that Jonathan Wyatt won't be running. (I've got a list of some confirmed withdrawals on iRunFar.) As for the race, there'll definitely be a good crowd running with you, Tony, and Uli... at least early in the race.

I think it's down to you and Mackey now that Tony is out. Uli doesn't seem to be in top shape, but Mackey does. I'm really curious to see how it turns out with you guys! I just wish they had some better coverage. :(

Geoff,Best of luck this weekend! I so wish I was there with you and Dad. Try to go get some Sol Food while you're there. That was an awesome place. Tell Trish and Uli I said hello and Brian too! Love you freak!

Geoff,Have a solid and fun day out there Saturday. I have a feeling you and Dave will be running alone over the last 10 miles to the finish. Either one of you could nab the win and both of you deserve it.Tim

Good luck tomorrow. I'm curious to see how it plays out with you and the recently superhuman Mackey. Also, make sure you don't let Chris Lundstrom get too close near the finish. The guy has some mean speed and the extra year of trails will make him dangerous. :) For anyone that wants to follow the race live, Solomon Footwear said on their facebook page that they'll be covering things tomorrow (presumably by FB, but probably also twitter).

To Bryon Powell - you did a wonderful job updating this race - North Face should be ashamed of their coverage. It really would be nice if they at least tried to cover the race. I am sure thankful for you - it is rough sitting at home wondering what your loved one is doing. My husband is at the race and I still follow your updates during the whole race.

Congratulations for Mr. Heras.As I said he´s really fit, amazing year and getting better and better every dat.Lot of hard work and high class runner. He really deserve it.And for Girona´s anonymous.... fortunately Heras is much better than any football club, including Barcelona jajajaja!!!!Enjoy it!! It´s just football!!!

Congratulations to #1 in my book - you are a first class son and I am very proud of you - you ran a great race and had us on pins and needles - I can't take too many of these races - tell Bryon Powell thanks for another wonderful day of coverage. Have fun with dad the rest of the time he is there and drive safely back to Colorado - I love you -

Great race Geoff! There is a cool pic of you and Dakota running across a narrow bridge not too long before he fell back a bit. Here's hoping the rest of the 6(!!)Juneau-ites have great races today, too! This ultra-running thing is starting to be a down-right trend around here...due in no small part to you.

Footfeathers, yeah, he's been dominant for awhile, but hsi Firetrails performance is head and shoulders above anything else he's done. In any case, congrats to Geoff for a great race! This will probably go down as the only time that Geoff (with his exceptional closing speed) got beat out in the last few miles. In any case, great run, and the $4000 is still really nice I'm sure.

Congratulations on another exciting race, Geoff. I kept tabs on you this morning instead of going skiing (actually it's blowing 30 mph and raining so not a hard decision). We are so proud of you - not only your running ability but your attitude towards ultra racing and competition. You are a class act.