TUF 16 Finale preview: Big opportunity awaits Mitrione on Saturday

Questions about Matt Mitrione’s willingness to undergo out-of-competition drug testing have overshadowed what is probably his biggest career test to date.

A win over Roy Nelson – who has only lost to champions, former champions and legend killers – would be a big feather in the cap of his former teammate on “The Ultimate Fighter 10.”

Not until November was Mitrione even near the heavyweight title picture. But he might be two or three fights from UFC gold if he wins on Saturday night. A unanimous-decision loss to Cheick Kongo halted a promising run of five consecutive wins.

Nelson (17-7 MMA, 4-3 UFC) originally was scheduled to meet Shane Carwin in a traditional season-ending fight between coaches on “The Ultimate Fighter 16.” But a knee injury Carwin sustained several weeks ago put Mitrione (5-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) in the driver’s seat of his career.

Now, Nelson and Mitrione meet Saturday at The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale, which takes place Saturday at The Joint at Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. The Nelson vs. Mitrione headliner airs on FX following prelims on FUEL TV and Facebook.

Carwin is just one of four coaches in 18 domestic and international seasons of the reality show whose injuries have scrapped the traditional season-ending fight. Tito Ortiz, who coached opposite Chuck Liddell on “TUF 11,” was the first. Vitor Belfort, who led his “TUF: Brazil” team opposite Wanderlei Silva, was the second. UFC batnamweight champion Dominick Cruz, who coached opposite Urijah Faber on “TUF 15,” also was forced out of a fight earlier this year.

For Nelson, you might be able to understand if he wished he were injured. The Mitrione fight is a lose-lose situation. If he wins, it’s because he has thrice the experience, and if he loses, he’s not only left to build himself up, but to do so under the watch of his sometime-nemesis UFC President Dana White.

Given the mind games played out between fighters in public view, it seems plausible Nelson would continue the out-of-competition rallying cry for drug testing he started with Carwin to get into Mitrione’s head. Or perhaps it just came as a side benefit to an honest desire to clean up the sport.

Nelson, who most recently knocked out Dave Herman at UFC 146, has about a 70 percent chance of winning the fight, according to the oddsmakers who have already put their faith in him. Mitrione, a bouncy striker with a limited ground game, has to touch Nelson’s chin. And if you’ve seen Nelson fight, you know that champ Junior Dos Santos wasn’t able to knock him out. And you know his belly smothers opponents from top position.

It’s a steep road for Mitrione, but the payoff is immense.

Other main-card fights

In the welterweight finals of “The Ultimate Fighter 16,” veteran Mike Ricci (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) meets Colton Smith (3-1 MMA, 0-0 UF. During the show, Ricci showed himself worthy of the Tristar name from which he hails. A well-rounded fighter, he’s the favorite going into a bout against Smith, who is considerably less dynamic in the cage, where he grinds out his opponents with wrestling and not much else. Already considering a move to lightweight, Colton’s ticket to the finals was punched with a molasses-slow fight against Jon Manley. Although Ricci displayed the same type of approach in early performances, he earned his ticket to the finals with an emphatic knockout of Neil Magny. Simply put, Ricci has more ways to win the fight as well as more high-level experience in the gym, and cage, to draw upon.

Heavyweights Pat Barry (7-5 MMA, 4-5 UFC) and Shane Del Rosario (11-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) might both be fighting for their jobs. More so for Barry, who’s lost four of his past six. Of course, several of his losses are the result of trying to make fan friendly fights, which have exposed him to more risk. He’s delivered excitement, and that’s saved his job thus far. Del Rosario, however, is really just getting started in his UFC career. A TKO loss to prospect Stipe Miocic in May marked his first setback in 12 pro fights, most of which where against substandard talent. If Barry were to lose to Del Rosario, it could be the final straw. Likewise, if Del Rosario fails to live up to the promise he showed in Strikeforce, he might be forced back to the local circuit. Expect a lot of grappling from the strikers, who don’t want to catch the pink-slip punch.

Lightweights Melvin Guillard (30-11-2 MMA, 11-7 UFC) and Jamie Varner (20-7-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) both came close to the top of the lightweight division, but both were hamstrung for various reasons. Guillard’s reckless aggression has gotten him in trouble, as shown by a quick submission loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136 and and then against Donald Cerrone at UFC 150. He always seems to rebound, and Varner might provide that stepping stone. But former WEC champ Varner also threatens with boxing ability that allowed him to beat Edson Barboza on short notice at UFC 146. Although he lost a battle to exhaustion, a previous fight against Joe Lauzon at UFC on FOX 4 displayed his ability to control opponents on the ground. Varner has the tools to beat Guillard, so “The Young Assassin” has to do damage quickly.

Featherweight Dustin Poirer (12-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has taken most of 2012 off following a submission loss to Chan Sung Jung at UFC on FUEL TV 3. It was his first loss in the UFC and only the second overall, so he’s expected to come in with sharper technique. Of course, he isn’t facing someone likely to bait him into a slugfest. Jonathan Brookins (13-5 MMA, 2-2 UFC), a winner of “The Ultimate Fighter 12,” isn’t the type to swing for the fences. He is, however, the typed to smother opponents against the mat, and for the striker Poirer, it means a potentially cautious fight.

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