Global agroclimatic patterns. Disasters took a heavy toll on all continents; key events included (1) the continuation of the complex emergency situation with a drought component in the Horn of Africa, (2) heat waves around the Mediterranean and in North America, (3) more than ten tropical storms and cyclones, essentially in Asia and the Caribbean, and (4) exceptional floods in southern Asia.

Updated and final 2017 global production estimates. CropWatch presents its revised and final estimates for 2017 production; they include estimates of 2,509 million tons of total 2017 output for major grains and 326 million tons of soybeans.

Total cereal production of the three major cereal producers. The total 2017 cereal output of China reached 519,584 thousand tons (down -1.9% compared with 2016), while estimates are 435,918 thousand tons for the United States (+0.1%) and 275,676 thousand tons for India (+5.4%).

China total production. The final CropWatch estimate for 2017 total summer crops production in China is 403.0 million tons, a significant decrease (-3.0%) compared to 2016. The total annual crop production (including cereals, tubers, and legumes) is put at 562.3 million tons (-1.0%).

China production of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. The combined production of winter and spring wheat in China increased 0.3% compared to 2016, while maize production was reduced by 5.2%, mainly resulting from a 3.7% decrease in planted area for maize. Overall rice output for China did not change from 2016.Soybean production is up 3.4% over last year.

Introduction

This CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from July 1 to October 31, 2017. Chapters 1 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1) to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in large production zones (Chapter 2), to individual country analyses covering 30 major producers and exporters including sub-national agro-ecological regions (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5, covering this time revised and final 2017 CropWatch food production estimates, disaster events, focus on rangeland management in Africa, and an update on El Niño. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, and a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin [THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE CREATED STILL;IF ONLY REFERING TO THE WEB VERSION YOU CAN DELETE THIS NOW].

Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zones

Chapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ): West Africa, North America, South America, South and southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Central Europe to western Russia. (See also Annex C for more information about these zones.)

Building on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. First, the overview section (3.1) pays attention to all countries worldwide, to provide some spatial and thematic detail to the overall features described in section 1.1. In section 3.2, more detail is provided for each of the CropWatch monitored countries, including analyses by key agro-ecological regions within the country. For each country, maps are included illustrating NDVI-based crop condition development graphs, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional information about indicators per country is provided in Annex A, while Annex B provides 2017 production estimates for select countries. [PLEASE CHECK; RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO ANNEX B]

After a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of national winter crop production (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.5 and 4.6 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops (4.5) and an updated outlook for domestic prices of maize, rice, wheat and soybean (4.6). Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

Building on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents revised CropWatch food production estimates for 2017 (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (5.2), the rangeland management in Africa (5.3), and an update on El Niño (5.4).

Tables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.

Annex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology and methodology to determine the severity of the occurrence.