Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice (27) runs the ball as Indianapolis Colts defensive end Lawrence Guy (67) defends during the second half of their AFC playoff game in Baltimore, Maryland, on Sunday, January 6, 2013. The Ravens won 24-9.(Luis M. Alvarez/MCT)

Photo: Luis M. Alvarez, McClatchy-Tribune News Service

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice (27) runs the ball as...

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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is too fast for Washington Redskins defensive lineman Barry Cofield during a scramble during the second half in the first round of the NFC wild-card playoff game at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, Sunday, January 6, 2013. (John Lok/Seattle Times/MCT)

{2012-12-02_nfl_49ers_vs_rams_1322} December 2, 2012: Justin Smith (94) of the 49ers gets up after tackling Sam Bradford (8) of the St. Louis Rams during the NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers vs the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis Missouri. By Danny Reise/SPECIAL TO THE CHRONICLE

I hate to make it about one guy, but unless defensive tackle Justin Smith is somewhat effective playing with a partially torn triceps tendon, I don't think the Niners have much of a chance. He's been out the past 10 quarters and in that time, San Francisco has given up 86 points and 915 yards on 173 plays. Teams averaged 5.12 yards per play compared with 4.48 with him, as Smith's leverage up front is key to freeing pass rusher Aldon Smith to wreak havoc. Green Bay, meanwhile, is playing well and is healthy at receiver and cornerback for the first time in a long time. Plus Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterback in the NFL the past three seasons, is playing with a chip on his shoulder - still - after the Niners didn't draft him in 2005. San Francisco drafted Alex Smith instead, but this year coach Jim Harbaugh benched the proven playoff winner for unproven but extremely talented Colin Kaepernick. I think wily cornerback/safety Charles Woodson, along with Dom Capers' schemes, give the kid trouble. PACKERS

Ravens at Broncos (-9 1/2)

If you've been reading these picks all year ... well, you're rich. Plus, you know by now that I am not big on Baltimore. The Ravens have an overrated, aging defense, they forget to give the ball to lil' dynamo Ray Rice for long periods of time, and I think the "Joe Flacco is elite" debate is absurd. They won at home against an overachieving Colts team last week and now get to face Peyton Manning on the road. Manning owns Baltimore. The Ravens have lost nine straight times to Manning since 2001, including twice in the playoffs and 34-17 a month ago. But here's the thing: No one thinks the Ravens can win. And they know this. Baltimore has a lot of experience in coming up big on the road, where it has won four playoff games under John Harbaugh. Plus, the Ravens' revamped offensive line had maybe its best game all season last week, Anquan Boldin is catching every ball in traffic and I can't see Knowshon Moreno running for more than 100 yards against Baltimore twice in a month. Yup, RAVENS and the points is the play.

Seahawks at Falcons (-2 1/2)

Seattle has everything going its way, having won eight of its past nine games, with Russell Wilson throwing 17 touchdowns against two interceptions and Marshawn Lynch running the ball like he hates defensive players. Can the Seahawks win two playoff games in a row on the road? Against Matt Ryan and an Atlanta bunch that is 0-3 in the playoffs in his career and has circled this game since an embarrassing 24-2 loss to the Giants a year ago, no less. The Falcons also get a break as Seahawks pass rusher Chris Clemons went down with torn knee ligaments last week (he had 11.5 sacks this year). Rookie Bruce Irvin will take his place and will need to make Ryan uncomfortable in the pocket. Atlanta beat Seattle 30-28 in 2011 as Roddy White and Julio Jones proved too quick when matched up with 6-foot-4, 221-pound corner Brandon Browner and combined for 17 catches for 205 yards. We picked Seattle here in our playoff preview last week, and here's a big reason why: Wilson has been deadly of late with the read-option, and Atlanta had trouble with Cam Newton twice this season (202 yards rushing, two touchdowns). SEAHAWKS

Texans at Patriots (-9 1/2)

After Houston was blown out by New England 42-14 on Dec. 10, it was looking forward to a rematch in the playoffs. But then the Texans blew their home-field advantage down the stretch and here they are again where they didn't want to be, in Foxborough, Mass. Against a rested Patriots team. New England didn't even have tight end Rob Gronkowski (broken arm) in the first meeting, and it will further exploit Houston's mediocre linebackers (the Patriots' other uber tight end, Aaron Hernandez, had eight catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns in December). Houston's only shot here is if it gets big games from its two superstars, defensive end J.J. Watt and running back Arian Foster. Watt had three hits and a forced fumble on Tom Bradythe first game, and he's moving around on the line even more now. Foster, though, had only 46 yards on 15 carries, as 350-pound Vince Wilfork was a big roadblock in the cutback lanes. Now's also probably a good time to mention that we have no faith at all in Houston quarterback Matt Schaub, who's been shaky for a month. PATRIOTS

Record: 3-1 last week (we went against Baltimore and Ray Lewis and his bionic arm). 138-108-4 overall.