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Q4 results

Q4 results

Heard a little rumor a press release on Q4 numbers is coming out soon... Did anyone else hear this?

Fredhmartin |
January 4, 2013

Really? That's surprising to me. Earnings call is Feb 11th

cprenzl |
January 4, 2013

someone hinted that, I'll believe it when I see it

NielsChr |
January 4, 2013

Q4 Sales/delivery ended 4 days ago....wouldn't it be rather quick if Q4 numbers was already done/present.....I assume not all payment have been cleared ect.
I don't believe such rumor - my guess: at best they could bee ready by end of january.

I would however believe it if was the delivery numbers for Q4 we are talking about, these should be present by now.

jackhub |
January 4, 2013

GM, Ford, etc. have all already announce 4Q sales. Why not Tesla?

Volker.Berlin |
January 4, 2013

Tesla has never announced sales figures when "all the others" did it on a regular basis. It's a consensus, not an obligation.

kalikgod |
January 4, 2013

I heard a rumor on a update on production, deliveries, and reservations. Actual Q4 numbers will not be until Feb 11.

noel.smyth |
January 4, 2013

my guess, 3500 total delivered in 2012 at avg price of 90k
total reservations just north of 20k.

kalikgod |
January 4, 2013

If we are making predictions, I say:

-2875 for the year "delivered" (gonna be stragglers that didn't get the payment in over the holidays), 2000 in Dec
-3300 produced for the year, with a current rate at 600/wk or 30k/year
-Average sales price 97k (pre-tax credit)
-Average of 12.5% gross margin for the vehicles delivered, and 20% on current deliveries

Any finance guys on here want to bake the numbers into fictitious Q4 financial results? I would actually like to see John Peterson take the numbers and crunch them.

TheAustin |
January 4, 2013

I would like to see John Peterson take the numbers and then shove them up his tail pipe...Metaphorically speaking, of course ;)

djp |
January 4, 2013

George Blankenship and Deepak Ahuja filed form 4s (buying shares). They must be comfortable with the upcoming news

cprenzl |
January 4, 2013

I think If tesla takes a dip soon I will be buying some more shares
This very exciting, I'm also glad I picked up some solarcity shares on the day of the IPO, (just google SCTY, and you'll know why)

jackhub |
January 4, 2013

@Volker. Right, but the discussion implied Tesla couldn't report that quickly. I agree that they won't, but it is their choice- not an inability.

GoTeslaChicago |
January 4, 2013

"Volker.Berlin | JANUARY 4, 2013
Tesla has never announced sales figures when "all the others" did it on a regular basis. "

They haven't, but then again the number of sales to report was not significant.

Now that they will soon will be outselling Volt, Leaf, Prius (Plug in) and all others on a monthly basis, I predict they will soon (within the year) be releasing their figures an a monthly basis like the other majors.

Tesla, welcome to the big leagues!

gregv64 |
January 4, 2013

As NielsChr said, if you're talking about Q4 results (like the thread title), those definitely won't be ready before the earnings call. If you're talking about just how many cars were made they could release those numbers if they wanted.

Brian H |
January 4, 2013

cprenzi;
Yeah, it's even faster growing and more volatile than TSLA! Elon must be kicking himself for leaving so much "on the table", though.

jat |
January 4, 2013

@djp - actually, if they are in possession of material data that isn't public, they aren't allowed to trade shares except for pre-arranged plans that were set long before they knew the material data.

So, I would conclude that they don't know material non-public data, which would seem to mean that the actuals are in line with projections.

@ Brian H
Elon bought more shares in addition to his ownership at IPO. So he's happy for himself that he got shares on the cheap, but unhappy for Solar City that they did not get enough funding for their business.

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

I'll be curious to see if Tesla will recognize revenue on vehicles shipped out before 1JAN, but not actually delivered to customers. If they do, the numbers could be very close or exceed the high end goal of 3K MS's sold. If not, hope they hit the low end safely.

petero |
January 7, 2013

My guess is TM will not release Q4 until Feb. 11, however, I suspect EM will tweet a production number since they probably hit the 3K goal.

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

Hope he doesn't tweet. Might get him in trouble with the SEC...

GoPrag |
January 7, 2013

I think the numbers will look like this:

Highest VIN ~3200
Q3 delivered = 260

Cars either did not finish (due to special config) or owner was not able to pay for by the 31st ~200.

Total cars delivered in Q4 = ~2750. Any thoughts?

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

Someone just posted "VIN 3229 arrived this morning in Dallas" so might be closer to 3300 or more...

GoTeslaChicago |
January 7, 2013

GoPrag,

Trying to remember if the sigs had different VIN numbers. If production VINs started with 0001 then you estimate will be low.

kalikgod |
January 7, 2013

@GTC

I do not think the VINs reset after Sigs. There were also ~40 press/demo cars built also. That is what I factored in my estimates a few days ago in this thread.

I am surprised that there is no announcement yet. I kindof thought it would come out Friday after the markets closed. If anyone sees it, post a link back here.

nickjhowe |
January 7, 2013

My car was handed off from Tesla to a 3rd party to hold (because I couldn't take delivery until the New Year). It is possible that they used this technique to rev rec cars that we shipped but not delivered.

GoPrag |
January 7, 2013

@nickjhowe

I think there are two pieces.

1) Cars finished & delivered (count cars on the way to the owners but not delivered ---but payment received?)
2) Payment received by the 31st.

In any case, I see a number around 2700-2900. I would hope that TM surprises everyone, but looking at the information available to us I see it'll be increasingly difficult.

Surprises could be:
- current production - over ~500/week
- slightly higher rev/car since all p85 were made

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

Customers in VIN 3200's are posting they made payments in 2012 and are just now receiving their MS. If Tesla rev rec's when payment received and handed off to third party, then might post sales over 3200 for Q4.

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

sorry forgot about 250 sold in Q3... could see over 3k in q4 rather...

markapeterman |
January 7, 2013

I am VIN 3229 and completed sale on 12/31 (based on my loan approval) and wiring partial payment, but my financing check arrived at Tesla on 1/3. Not sure how they count that for sales/revenue purposes.

lolachampcar |
January 7, 2013

Silly question.
If ViNs in the 3200 range were delivered, and there were sigs, and Canadian 2000s, and demo cars, and ViNs on hold for diferent reasons, and,,,, How could Telsa have sold/delivered anywhere near 3200 cars?

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

lolachampcar -- Trying shamelessly to figure that out in this thread...

gregv64 |
January 7, 2013

The sigs and canadian 2000s are part of the continuous 1-3200 vin sequence and part of the cars delivered so far, so that works out fine. However, there is one VIN gap from the last US sig (around vin 1100 or so) until the first customer production (around 1260) that included the marketing cars. And of course there will be a few scrapped VINs, but that shouldn't matter much.

jat |
January 7, 2013

I paid for VIN 3235 on 12/31, it got on the truck on 12/31, and I received it yesterday. I assume they counted it for 2012 numbers.

Shelmire |
January 7, 2013

Wait a minute. Tell me Vin #s are not the number of cars produced.
How the hell could 3235 be delivered 12/31 and they are telling me my car (#11,484) will be delivered by the end of Jan? What am I missing?

markapeterman |
January 7, 2013

Shannon -
VIN # is the order of cars built, but your reservation sequence # (11,484) is not your VIN - you will be assigned a VIN when your car starts production and it will be a much lower number.

gregv64 |
January 7, 2013

VIN #s are (within some degree of approximation) the number of cars produced. As to why you are getting your car, there are a number of reasons. First you are ahead of most 60's, all 40's and all red or standard suspension cars. Then there are people who delayed finalizing or canceled their orders. Finally, your car seems to be unusually early, given the mystery of Tesla production sequence and the myth of building in strict res # order.

GoPrag |
January 7, 2013

So, I'll try some revenue #s now.

The magic number comes out to be 333M (440M to beat - 107M Q1-3).
Say, TM gets 13M revenue from Toyota & MB for the quarter (pure assumption to make numbers easy).

So, to beat the revenue quarter, TM must have sold 3200 cars at 100000 a piece. Which to me is a bit too far. Best case scenario I can see is this: 2900*95000 = 275.5M.

275.5+13+107 = ~395M. And, do we count the 5K new reservation deposits as revenue? If so, Add ~20M and you get somewhere in the ballpark. Any other obvious revenues to add?

jk2014 |
January 7, 2013

$900 delivery charge per vehicle, ZEV credits ($?), could make up the difference to 400m...

Reservations are a current liability, but will affect operational cash flow in positive way... maybe between 5m - 20m in net positive res in flow for the year... this could help offset operational cash outflows.

JoeFee |
January 7, 2013

I think a small beat will be reported with very good forecast for Q1 = TSLA @ $40 !

jackhub |
January 7, 2013

Vin 3059 payed with a wire on 12/31. My DS said it was good for both of us. I get the 2012 tax credit and Tesla gets the sale and revenue. I believe it the exchange of $$ that indicates sale and ownership.

jk2014 |
January 11, 2013

News articles starting to "report" estimates of 3k MSs sold in in 2012...

jk2014 |
January 11, 2013

Forgot to mention they're quoting forum posters as sources...

jk2014 |
January 13, 2013

Did Elon just say Tesla didn't turn a profit in Q4?

Timo |
January 13, 2013

@jk2014, I recall Elon saying that they turned to cash-positive in Q4.

Timo |
January 13, 2013

...which might not be result of entire Q4 (need edit).

jk2014 |
January 13, 2013

AP article tonight quoted Elon saying he's looking for a profitable quarter later this year. I take this to mean Q4 might not have turned a profit. Hard to swallow if they made 290m+ and spent it all. Means they will have to dip heavy into cash to cover losses for the year and pisses me off because all the naysayers said that would happen. I hope I'm readying too much into it.

Mark22 |
January 13, 2013

That is presumptuous. It could well mean they will have to dip lightly into cash.
As long as they don't miss a payment on their loan the naysayers are wrong.

jk2014 |
January 13, 2013

They raised about 427m in cash this year, looking at net loss of nearly 300m. By what Elon has stated tonight, they won't be profitable for a while. Will have to dip deeper earlier, suggesting another offering sooner. Those critics will jump all over this as validation. Just hope I'm wrong and the shorts don't have field day this month as speculation runs rampant.

Tesla needs to make a positive statement very soon. The official silence on numbers is becoming painful.

gregv64 |
January 13, 2013

Nobody (not even Tesla) expected them to be profitable last quarter. However, if they are cash flow positive they are no longer dipping into cash to cover losses (they are taking in more money than they are spending). Reservation income doesn't count towards profits, but it's still money the company can use.

gregv64 |
January 13, 2013

And I really don't understand this statement: "The official silence on numbers is becoming painful."

Earnings are Feb 11th. If they planned to release numbers earlier they would have set an earlier earnings date. The whole point of setting an earnings date is so you know when they will tell you the numbers. Chill out and wait. You complain about the shorts, but you really sound like one yourself.