Primary elections are hard to predict, NYC mayoral edition

Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections:

1. Two major candidates;
2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues;
3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources;
4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years);
5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds.

I shouldn’t really admit this, but . . . I actually talked with the reporter in English. That “nerveux” in the last paragraph means “excited,” not “nervous.” What I said was that if de Blasio gets the nomination, the Republicans will get very excited but I think they’ll still lose in the general election.