At 12:40 p.m. on Saturday, Jay Beagle won the opening faceoff of game two of Metropolitan Division Final against the New York Rangers. Instead of controlling the puck, however, the Capitals allowed the Rangers to set up for a rush out their defensive zone. As the Rangers took the puck up the ice, Washington’s top forward and defensive lines jumped on the ice. Brooks Orpik didn’t do so fast enough. Jesper Fast fed the puck to Chris Kreider in front. Thirty-eight seconds into the game, Washington was down one-nil. By the end of the first period, New York had a two-goal lead. The Caps had been outshot 15-4, completely outmatched for the first 20 minutes of play.

“I think we had a great start,” defenseman Marc Staal told reporters at the team hotel on Sunday.

But instead of sitting on their lead as they did in game two, the Rangers only plan to press more on Monday.

For the Rangers, dominating first periods is the norm. They outscored the opposition 91-56 in the opening frame during the regular season and have continued that trend by netting seven goals to their opponents two so far this postseason. After Saturday’s game, Capitals coach Barry Trotz insisted his team had to be better. According to Trotz and his players, the key is simple: be prepared from the drop of the puck.

“They play their first shift like they play their whole game,” Tom Wilson told me. “They just go.”

“We gotta be ready for it,” Wilson added.

Trotz said he was no stranger to this kind of play. According to the longtime coach, his team’s played a similar strike-first style to New York’s while he was in Nashville. (In fact, Trotz’s teams routinely got outscored by their opponents in the first period, but it sounded good at the time.) Trotz said the recipe for stopping the onslaught can’t be drawn up on a whiteboard. Instead, it’s something more elemental.

“They came with more urgency in their game in the first period,” Trotz said. “When you’re more urgent, you’re winning more battles, more races, and you have the puck more.”

“A lot of times you can’t win the game in the first 10 minutes of a game, but you can lose a game in the first 10,” the coach concluded. In game three, the Capitals hope to be on the other side of things.

Brooks Laich skated the puck into the Rangers’ zone with ten seconds left to go. He had a decision to make. Leading a 3-on-2 break in the closing seconds, he could have either pulled up and shot the puck from the perimeter, hoping for Jason Chimera to convert the rebound, or he could send a lateral pass over to the Capitals leading scorer, Alex Ovechkin, and see what magic he could make.

Instead, Laich opted for option C: a high-risk, high-reward hailmary saucer pass to Jason Chimera that would have to travel over two defenders’ sticks and somehow find the tape of his stick.

He chose C, and he made it work. Let’s review.

Laich believes Chimera can win a foot race against Dan Girardi…

…And lofts a saucer pass over Marc’s Staal’s stick.

Unreal.

Girardi might think he’s got this…

… but seriously, you guys…

The pass exceeds Girardi reach. It’s placed perfectly. All up to Chimera now.

The puck lands right in front of Chimera…

… and hops onto the heel of his stick.

Chimera one-times the puck…

And scores though Lundqvist’s five-hole.

Just how Dale drew it up!

Torts is not happy. (Photo credit: Puck Buddys)

It was Chimera’s third goal in six career playoff games against Lundqvist (Thanks, Neil).

In preparation, we peaked back at last year’s quarterfinal series between the Caps and Rangers in hopes that it might give us a glimpse at the future. No matter their predictive value, these five games were a freaking blast. Join me for some good memories behind the jump.

The first game of the series was a tense one. Going nearly 80 minutes, the Rangers and Caps played tight hockey until Marc Staal made a mistake and Jason Arnott made him pay. Arnott set up special friend Alex Semin for an emotional game winner. Glimpsing a ye olde stat sheet, the Caps dominated possession (plus-19 Fenwick), firing 33 shots on Lundqvist. The Caps cap’n alone had 6 shots, 6 hits, and a goal. It was just brilliant playoff hockey and a rousing start to the postseason.

Caps

NYR

Goals

2

1

Fenwick*

+19

-19

PIMs

4

4

ESS%*

.958

.931

Blocks

32

28

* ESS% = goalie save percentage while teams are at even strength. Fenwick sums up one team’s shots and misses at even-strenth, subtracted by the other team’s sum of the same.

Michal Neuvirth was the star of game two, shutting the door on the Rangers and their 22 shots. Jason Arnott and Jason Chimera recorded goals for the Caps, and John Tortorella dressed Sean Avery, who is unemployed now. The Caps completely suffocated the Rangers, keeping them without a scoring chance for the entirety of the second period. This was the most conservative game of the series, with most of the action going on at neutral and on the perimeters. The Caps left for Manhattan with a two-game lead.

The Rangers stole the first game at their home rink, but they had to get pretty luck to do it. Although it’s inelegant to whine about penalties a year later, the Rags got all the good whistles this game– putting the Caps shorthanded 7 times and converting on one of those. But the truly bad luck was Brandon Dubinsky‘s freak bounce off Karl Alzner’s shoulder and into Mikey Neuvirth’s net with less than 100 seconds left. This was the Caps’ first regulation loss with Jason Arnott in the lineup; that’s how good this team was last spring.

Caps

NYR

Goals

2

3

Fenwick

-7

+7

PIMs

16

8

ESS%

.917

.952

Blocks

11

12

After the game coach Bruce Boudreau commented on how quiet Madison Square Garden was. New York fans kept that comment in mind.

This one belongs in the pantheon of classic Caps games. The Capitals played garbage hockey for two periods, earning a three-goal deficit and a potential shutout for Henrik Lundqvist. And then, in the third, the Capitals played what might have been the best period of hockey in the history of the franchise. Alex Semin stole a loose puck to score, and then Marcus Johansson scored two goals to force overtime. And then, in the fifth period, Jason Chimera crashed the net and corralled a rambunctious puck for the game-winner.

Caps

NYR

Goals

4

3

Fenwick

+21

-21

PIMs

14

8

ESS%

.912

.915

Blocks

21

28

Meanwhile, Mike Knuble missed action while getting pins installed in his broken hand. And the fans at Madison Square Garden gave the Caps hell all game long, although something about Chimera’s 2OTGWG seemed to hush them at the very end.

The Capitals ended the series at home in a rout. The Rangers’ orderly facade slipped into psychosis as the team was whistled for four roughing penalties, two misconducts, and one “abuse of officials” (i.e. Torts getting torty with the refs). Michal Neuvirth maintained a shutout until the game’s final minute. Alex Ovechkin, Semin, and Green each solved Lundqvist and put this one safely out of reach. The Caps cruised to the second round of the playoffs, which we will never discuss again.

Conclusions

This year’s model of the Washington Capitals doesn’t come with the automatic puck-possession advantage that meant so much in the last series. The Rangers will have the puck more this year (although they’re only slightly better on the Fenwick scale), so the Caps will have compensate in another area.

Plus, the Rangers ranked fourth in the league in blocked shots this season– both a capable mitigation of their problems owning the puck and an affirmation of their team unity. Blueshirts will be diving in front of Washington pucks like it’s going out of style, so a little creativity on offense will be needed.

Whatever criticisms you may have for Michal Neuvirth, he acquitted himself excellently in the 2011 NYR series. Braden Holtby will have to be similarly perfect to outduel Henrik Lundqvist, who is probably in his Vezina year. Here’s hoping Holtby can keep his .940 save percentage alive.

The Caps are going to need star power in net to eke out wins, but they’re also gonna need star power on offense. The last series saw most of its goals come from the big names: Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, and Mike Green. With even less scoring depth than last year, the 2012 Caps will rely on their big players to produce.

No Sean Avery. Haha. As if that were ever a factor. But the Rangers have improved their offense with the addition of Brad Richards, who has been a force multiplier for Marian Gaborik. The Caps defense will have a greater challenge this time around.

But who are we kidding? This series– like the last one— will come down to one question: Who is more willing to crash the net?

The Pregame: Fun! Today’s installment of “Places That Smell” has us visiting the big macher of smells, New York City! Boo-yah!

This is fun because it’s true. The entire place is one massive reek… or, more accurately, hundreds of smaller little reeks. Did you know, for instance, that the five boroughs of New York City were formed not for political reasons, but as a way of keeping one smelly New Yorker from having to endure his pungent neighbors? The subway pretty much put an end to that, and now the whole place stinks like the laundry room in a European hostel. Anyone who’s been in either knows this to be gospel truth.

New Yorker

New Yorkers know this as well, but because they also have the thinnest skins of anyone on the planet, they simply cannot stand to hear others say it. So they will talk (or yell) themselves blue in the face trying to convince you that NYC is the single greatest concentration of fantastical awesomeness in the universe. Ugh, we get it. Face it, New York: you’re needier than a public radio pledge drive.

The Puck Drop

That said, needy isn’t the first word that comes to mind with the New York Rangers. Maybe shnook is. Or good… like, scary good. They’re 7-2-1 in the last ten (compare with our 4-3-3) with only the Devils yanking their tails, and at 35-13-3 they have fewer loses that anyone else in the NHL.

So what’s their secret, and how do we kick ’em in the kishkes?

What Makes Them Hot (And Us Not)

1: Road Weariers. They like playing in their own litter box just a tiny bit less than we like playing in ours – and of late, we haven’t even been doing all that great at Verizon. But where they just have us beat cold is on the road. The Blueshirts’ 18-7-3 away record is a near inversion of our 9-14-3, with many of our road wins in Canada, which just feels like it should count a little less or something. By this measure, they have serious advantage over us Sunday.

Henrik Lundqvist

2: It’s Good To Be King. There’s a reason Henrik Lundqvist is called King, and it isn’t because he won the looks lottery. The Rangers’ goals for/against of 145/106, is one of the best differentials going and the single stingiest net in the NHL, due largely to the herring-gobbler Lundqvist. You think Tomáš Vokoun looks hot at .920%? Try the King’s .936%. Add to this the fact that the Rangers aren’t shooting as well as you might think a top team should, and a forecheck that actually works, and it equals a monster in the twine. Plus, he’s a doodyhead.

3: Can Mike Come Out And Play? The Rangers have their over-achievers (Derek Stepan with 6 points in his last 5, and Marian Gaborik with 27G/21A, plus-16 are but two) and their disappointments (Marc Staal, only recently back on the ice, is 0/0 in his last five outings.) But they are generally a healthy team – that weird hit Fedotenko recently took from his own stick one exception – and even their non-stars like Dan Girardi and Ryan “Shillelagh-Face” McDonagh are playing with star-like abandon.

If only the same could be said about the Caps. Laich’s almost-injury a few days back should have sent shivers through the team. We are thin where it counts most, and don’t seem to be making full use of those who are healthy. In addition to missing a vowel, Hamrlik is also missing opportunities lately, and Carlson seems all but forgotten. (Perhaps he should bring a towel.) And now Knoobs is game-day decision for a healthy scratch.

The OT

Ryan McDonagh

We really liked what we saw against the Panthers; we really didn’t like what we saw against the Bruins. We liked the Habs game; we hated the Hurricanes. In general, there’s too much uppy-down on the ice; too many fluky shots or lazy first period play. When we decide to dig in and fight back we’re great, but there have just been too many moments when we’ve folded too early. And yes, we’re well aware that these same things have been said countless times before.

The ace up our sleeve? This is the Capitals’ Dads weekend, and the team shipped up by train with all the fathers in tow. We’re thinking that this is a very good thing. It’s one thing to play in front of a house full of fans in red (or shnooks in blue) but entirely something else to play in front of your biggest boosters.

It’ll be hard, and it may be ugly, but Sunday we’re pulling for an upset Caps victory.

Meme Of The Day

In honor of the Caps Casino Night. As we say in the PuckBuddys house, we’d hit that!

No team has given the Washington Capitals more trouble this season than the New York Rangers. Those 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts pushed some Caps fans into spiritual desolation, broke up several marriages, and probably killed a house cat or two. Fitting then that the Caps and Rags should meet in this first round of the playoffs. You know that old Klingon proverb, right? Revenge is a dish best served by two guys from Russia named Alex.

We were scoreless through two periods when Rangers newbie Matt Gilroy caught a pass from Brandon Prust and beat Michal Neuvirth. With only six minutes and change left in regulation, Alex Ovechkin’s repeated swats forced the puck past Henrik Lundqvist’s pads. And then, after nearly nineteen minutes of overtime hockey and with fatigue setting in, Jason Arnott intercepted a bad clear from Marc Staal and set up Alex Semin for the game-winner. It took damn near eighty minutes, but the good guys pulled it out: the Caps beat the Rangers 2-1 (OT) and take a 1-0 lead in the series.

Tip your hat to bench boss Bruce Boudreau, who managed shifts in this marathon match capably. No Capitals player clocked over 29 minutes (but Nicky Backstrom came darn close with 28:56) . That might have made the difference when you consider it was the gaffe of New York’s own ice-leader, Marc Staal (33:48), that led to the OTGWG.

Thanks in large part to a dominant first period, the Capitals led scoring chances 21 to 14.

The Rangers recovered to put some rubber against Michal Neuvirth eventually, but he turned away nearly all comers as if this weren’t his first post-season NHL appearance. 24 saves. That’s certainly good enough for another start if we’re still talking about such things.

Neuvirth speaking to CSN about the win: “We just had fun out there.” Now isn’t that a much better credo than “Stay Angry”? Joy leads to success more than crankiness does, and I’m saying this as a professional cranky person.

Mike Green‘s first game since the late eighties was a success, but he was on ice for half of the Rangers’ scoring chances and the Rags’ only goal. Still, @GreenLife52 at 100% health in the postseason is a sight we’ve not seen before now. Look out for this guy on Friday.

Brooks Laich went 13-for-18 on the faceoff, but he was perfect until I jinxed him. My bad, Brooksy. Owe you a coke.

There are few players that combine size and grace like Jason Chimera. If only he could add shooting accuracy to his arsenal. Chimmer had three pristine scoring chances: each missed by a country mile.

The “Crash the net” refrain isn’t just something cute and gimmicky to shout; it’s a battle plan. NYR goalie Henrik Lundqvist is apparently immune to long bombs, so close combat was the only way to win this one. Alex Ovechkin‘s contribution to the history of crashed nets was a greasy, smash-mouth, ugly mess– but didn’t it just bring a tear to your eye? The video review and delay– they were just theatrics to enhance the story you’ll be telling all day tomorrow.

When Ovechkin nailed Brandon Prust up high after that goal, disaster loomed. But these aren’t the Capitals of old, and the penalty-kill unit has learned one important new skill: THE SHUTDOWN.

And then there’s Alex Semin. Bad Sasha, Good Sasha. He committed a hooking penalty so typical, we might think he were caricaturizing himself– like he had been watching old tapes of Andy Kaufmanor something. But under the kindly tutelage of Jason Arnott, Alex Semin found redemption. That game-winning goal was his first post-season marker in two playoff series, since the last time the Caps met the Rangers (which was back in the early eighties).

Joe B's suit of the night (thanks, @philo4th!)

There’s so much more to talk about from this super-sized game: Nicky Backstrom’s ever-lengthening drought, Jason Arnott’s underrated forecheck skills, how John Erskine is liable to kill a human being on national television at some point during this series– but we’re gonna leave it there for now. After all, it’s going to be a loooong post-season.

The Capitals played 80 minutes of gritty, character-revealing hockey. They didn’t get lazy and reckless when they reached exhaustion. Their best players were their best players (whatever that means), and they secured a meaningful victory. I’ve just marked the first of many tallies on the big board. 15 to go.

The Caps now lead the quarterfinal series 1-0, and the Red Army has another battle scheduled for Friday night. Russia’s finest expats will be there, in heart of the nation’s capital, flanked by their brosephs and cheered on by 20,000 unshaven crazy people.

On Wednesday, the Washington Capitals will take on the New York Rangers in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Caps haven’t faired well against New York this season, losing three out of four regular season games including 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts. In fact, the 7-0 shutout was so bad, Alex Ovechkin found it necessary to fight. However, that was then. This is now. Let’s take a look at the numbers to preview what should be an interesting matchup.

All have performed well during even strength, putting at worst almost six out of every ten chances (SC%) in Washington’s favor and converting a fairly decent amount of them into goals (Convert%). The gaudy numbers of the Laich-Johansson-Chimera line comes at the expense of a small sample size: only about ten even strength minutes played together.

The “Sasha Whisperer” Jason Arnott should be kept along Semin, but Sturm on the second line is a surprise — at least to me. Those second and third lines are going to be crucial in this seven game series.

As for Washington’s defense, the Caps’ shutdown pair is better than New York’s shutdown pair.

At even strength when the score is tied, John Carlson and Karl Alzner come out way ahead of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi:

D Pairing

Chances for

Chances against

EV Tied SC%

Staal-Girardi

90

108

45.5%

Carlzner

118

113

51.1%

More than half of scoring chances (SC%) go in the Caps favor when Carlzner is on the ice, while the Rangers’ “best d-pair” doesn’t even break even.

It’s also not even close on the penalty kill:

Player

PK TOI

PK chances against

PK SCA/60

Staal

202.8

132

39.1

Girardi

161.8

151

56.0

Carlson

187.3

72

23.1

Alzner

171.2

64

22.4

So as strong as the Ranger’s defense is, it looks like Alzner and Carlson are better.

New York’s goaltending gives me some cause for concern and it is not because Lundqvist had eleven shutouts. It’s because he seems to have effectively neutralized what has been the Caps strength when it comes to scoring.

There are A LOT of Washington goals scored in locations that King Henry has been adept at keeping out of the net. Pay particular attention to the red circles, which are goals by Ovechkin. After seeing that, you can understand why Washington’s secondary scorers will have to step up big time.

I put the chances of Washington winning at 57%, with the most likely scenario being a five or six game triumph.