Which MLB Team Won the Winter?

It's the start of spring training in baseball, which means all 30 general managers can agree on one thing: They all had a successful winter. But which team improved itself the most?

The answer won't be known for months, but we can make an educated projection. The Wall Street Journal examined every off-season transaction and ranked each team based on how many projected marginal wins it added or lost.

The calculations were based on each player's projected wins above replacement (WAR), a statistic used to compare a player's value to the average Triple-A fill-in. The forecasts were made by Dan Szymborski, a sabermetric analyst whose projection system, Zips, is considered among the most reliable. It uses weighted averages of four years of data and adjusts for age based on aging trends of similar players. The rankings don't include contract extensions or promotions within organizations.

2. CUBS (+8.2)Key acquisitions: SP Edwin Jackson (2.8), RP Carlos Villanueva (1.4) Key losses: None Outlook: They didn't make any splashy deals, but the Cubs made several smaller moves that should make this rebuilding year somewhat less miserable than the last one.

3. INDIANS (+7.2)Key acquisitions: OF Michael Bourn (4.0), OF/1B Nick Swisher (2.5) Key losses: OF Shin-Soo Choo (3.1), DH Travis Hafner (1.1) Outlook: The Indians haven't had a winter this good since the year they picked up Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn and Willie Mays Hayes. They should return to respectability, if nothing else.

4. RED SOX (+6.3) Key acquisitions: OF Shane Victorino (2.9), SP Ryan Dempster (2.4) Key losses: SS Mike Aviles (2.1), OF Cody Ross (1.4) Outlook: The playoffs may still be a long shot, but with Bobby Valentine gone, the Red Sox will at least avoid the dysfunction of 2012.

5. PHILLIES (+5.4)Key acquisitions: OF Ben Revere (2.2), 3B Michael Young (1.4) Key loss: SP Vance Worley (1.5) Outlook: At best, the Phillies could be in the mix for a wild-card spot, but they're no longer the class of the NL East.

9. DIAMONDBACKS (+3.1)Key acquisitions: OF Martin Prado (3.3), SP Brandon McCarthy (2.3) Key losses: OF Justin Upton (3.0), OF Chris Young (2.3) Outlook: After a busy winter, the D-Backs at least have a chance to challenge the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West.

10. PADRES (+2.3)Key acquisition: SP Freddy Garcia (1.1) Key loss: IF Andy Parrino (1.0) Outlook: At best, the Padres can be roughly a .500 team. At worst, well…the weather in San Diego is still gorgeous.

13. NATIONALS (+1.0)Key acquisitions: SP Dan Haren (2.9), OF Denard Span (2.7) Key loss: SP Edwin Jackson (2.8) Outlook: The Nationals had the best record in baseball last year and managed to get better this winter. It's World Series or bust in D.C.

14. MARINERS (+0.5)Key acquisition: 1B Kendrys Morales (1.3) Key loss: C John Jaso (1.8) Outlook: They didn't land the top sluggers they coveted, but the Mariners did move in the fences at Safeco Field.

15. TIGERS (+0.4)Key acquisition: OF Torii Hunter (2.4) Key loss: DH Delmon Young (1.0) Outlook: After being swept in the World Series by the Giants, the Tigers appear primed for another October run.

16. GIANTS (+0.3)Key acquisition: OF Andres Torres (2.1) Key loss: OF Melky Cabrera (2.5) Outlook: The Giants return essentially the same team that won the World Series last year.

17. CARDINALS (-0.6) Key acquisitions: None Key loss: DH Lance Berkman (1.2) Outlook: When you're a perennial contender with as much homegrown talent as St. Louis has, a quiet off-season isn't necessarily a bad thing. We didn't count the expected loss of free agent pitcher Kyle Lohse (2.7) only because he technically could still return.

18. ASTROS (-0.9)Key acquisition: DH Carlos Pena (1.6) Key loss: SS Jed Lowrie (1.5) Outlook: Oy. After losing 107 games last year, the Astros cut their payroll to $25 million and moved from a weak division to one of baseball's toughest.

19. ATHLETICS (-1.6)Key acquisitions: OF Chris Young (2.3), SS Hiroyuki Nakajima (2.2) Key losses: SP Brandon McCarthy (2.3), SS Stephen Drew (1.7) Outlook: The As surprised everyone by winning 94 games in 2012. No one should be shocked if they win the AL West again this year.

21. ORIOLES (-2.8)Key acquisitions: None Key losses: SP Joe Saunders (1.2) Outlook: Fresh off their first playoff appearance in 15 years, the Orioles all but sat out the winter.

22. TWINS (-2.9)Key acquisition: SP Vance Worley (1.5) Key losses: OF Denard Span (2.7), OF Ben Revere (2.2) Outlook: The Twins have a strong base of young talent on the way, but it's not here yet. Could be another ugly rebuilding year.

24. METS (-3.9) Key acquisition: C Travis d'Arnaud (1.9) Key loss: SP R.A. Dickey (4.0) Outlook: Check back in 2014, when the Mets' top prospects will be in the majors and their worst contracts will be off the books.

26. ANGELS (-4.2)Key acquisitions: OF Josh Hamilton (3.8), SP Tommy Hanson (2.2) Key losses: SP Zack Greinke (4.3), SP Dan Haren (2.9), OF Torii Hunter (2.4) Outlook: A fearsome offense will put the Angels in contention. Whether their pitching is good enough to get them to the playoffs is an open question.

27. BRAVES (-4.2)Key acquisitions: OF B.J. Upton (3.5), OF Justin Upton (3.0) Key losses: OF Michael Bourn (4.0), OF Martin Prado (3.3) Outlook: It'll be strange seeing the Braves without Chipper Jones, who retired, but there's still enough talent here for them to be one of the NL's best teams.

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