Republican candidate for governor, Neel Kashkari is in third place in the lates polls with about 10 percent.

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

Republican candidate for governor, Neel Kashkari is in third place...

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Gov. Jerry Brown smiles as he discusses his revised 2014-15 state budget at a Capitol news conference in Sacramento, Calif. Brown is facing Republican challengers, Assemblyman Tim Donnelly and businessman Neel Kashkari, in his bid to win reelection this year.

Despite blistering criticism from the GOP establishment, cash-strapped Tea Party favorite Tim Donnelly is clinging to second place in the top-two gubernatorial primary over fellow Republican Neel Kashkari, who has dropped $2 million of his own money into the race, a new poll shows.

Gov. Jerry Brown appears to be coasting toward a June 3 primary victory over both Republican challengers, according to the poll released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California. It shows Brown with the support of 48 percent of likely primary voters, compared with 15 percent for Donnelly and 10 percent for Kashkari, with 27 percent undecided. The top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

Donnelly also has three times as much support among Latino voters as Kashkari, despite Donnelly's role in founding the California Minutemen, a self-styled border patrol dedicated to fighting illegal immigration.

The latest numbers show Kashkari has closed the overall gap only slightly since April, when the institute's survey found Donnelly at 9 percent and Kashkari at 2 percent.

Opening wallet

Since then, Kashkari, a former Treasury official and onetime investment banker with Goldman Sachs, has put 40 percent of his stated net worth of $5 million into the race. He has been endorsed by establishment Republicans such as former Gov. Pete Wilson, 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Donnelly, in contrast, has been operating on a shoestring for months. The GOP establishment's view of him was summarized in April by consultant Karl Rove, who warned that Donnelly would damage the party with Latinos and said Republicans would be "stupid" to vote for him.

Even before the poll was released, Kashkari's team suggested that the numbers would probably be suspect. They argued that the institute had done its survey before the bulk of the candidate's considerable investments in TV spots and mailers could show returns.

However, PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare pointed out that voters were already casting ballots by mail when the survey of 1,702 adults was taken from May 8-15. "It is fairly striking that, at this stage, the (GOP) candidates are still struggling to get the attention of the voters," he said.

Tuned out

He noted that still fewer than half of likely primary voters say they're following the campaign. That strongly favors Brown, a third-term governor who has been a fixture in California politics for more than four decades, Baldassare said.

For Donnelly and Kashkari, "who have never run for statewide office before, these are very difficult circumstances to get yourself known," he said. "In our poll, more people are following the drought than the primary."

The survey also shows that "GOP voters don't seem to have warmed up to either candidate, so you have a situation where one-third are not sure who they're going to vote for," Baldassare said.

The poll found that only 43 percent of Republicans are happy with their choice of candidates, compared with two-thirds of Democrats.

Backing for budget

Making it even tougher for Republicans: Brown gets robust majority support across the board for his budget proposals, according to the poll - 74 percent of all adults, 84 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of independents and even 62 percent of Republicans.

Three-fourths of likely voters also approve of a November ballot measure backed by Brown that would make changes to the state's rainy day fund, the poll said. The changes include setting aside 1.5 percent of general fund revenue each year and some capital gains revenue in good years, and using half the money to pay down the state's debt.

Brown's overall approval rating among all adults is at 50 percent, down from his high of 58 percent in January but still two points higher than a year ago, the poll said.

The survey's margin of error was 3.6 percentage points for questions asked of all 1,702 adults, and higher for subgroups of respondents.