The Linemakers

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If you're anything like us, you love to make the Super Bowl more interesting than it already may be. One of the most popular ways to do that is to play squares, a pool concept that’s common in offices all over the United States.

The basic premise behind squares is to award winners based on the score at the end of each quarter, with the halftime and final scores typically worth the most money. The last digit in each team’s score is what matters. For example, if you have ‘49ers 4, Ravens 0’, and the score at halftime is 49ers 14, Ravens 10, you win that portion of the pot.

You probably have been passed a 10x10 grid this week and asked for a buck or two for each square you’d like to fill in. Once all 100 squares are bought and filled in, the numbers 1 through 10 are drawn and assigned to each column and row.

Thus, there is no handicapping or skill involved in such pools; your numbers are assigned randomly. Yet, because of how the game of football is scored, certain numbers are more favorable than others — 3s and 7s are good; 2s and 9s, not so much,

So now that probably you have your numbers for Sunday’s 49ers-Ravens showdown, we decided to take a closer look at what numbers offer the best chances to win, based on past Super Bowls. The chart below shows the frequency with which each number combination has won over the past 46 NFL championship games. The designated “away” team’s numbers are presented on the vertical axis; the "home" teams run horizontally.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

1

0

0

0

1

2

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

0

0

3

3

1

0

6

2

0

2

5

0

0

11

4

2

0

4

3

0

0

5

0

1

4

5

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

3

6

1

0

5

0

0

2

4

3

1

4

7

3

1

8

6

0

2

7

0

0

10

8

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9

1

1

0

1

1

0

3

1

0

5

0

2

0

6

7

1

2

10

3

2

13

Good numbers to draw

A '0' greatly increases your odds of winning. In fact, a square with a '0' for the away team has won 46 times, or an average of once per Super Bowl (or 25.0 percent of all Super Bowl quarters). A square with a '0' for the home team has garnered an even greater number of winners – 55 or (29.9 percent).

Not surprisingly, the second best number to draw is '7'. A '7' with the home team has produced 40 winners (21.7 percent of quarters), while a '7' with the road team has won 37 times (20.1 percent).

3s also win at a solid rate – 27 times for the road team, 29 for the home side.

Winning combinations

The 0-0 combination has occurred 13 times in previous Super Bowls. Ten of those 13 winners occurred at the end of the first quarter.

The 3-0 score ('away' team first) occurred 11 times, and 0-3 happened six times. 7-0 and 0-7 both happened on 10 occasions.

The 7-7 combination has produced seven wins, three of those coming in the first quarter. It's produced just two overall winners, the last coming in Super Bowl XXX in 1996 between the Cowboys and Steelers.

The best final score combinations in the Super Bowl have been 4-7 and 0-7—and remember, the final score usually carries the biggest payoff. Both of these combinations have occurred three separate times. Super Bowl XLII between the Giants and Patriots ended in a 17-14 thriller, marking the last time one of these combinations happened.

Bad draws

Some numbers, conversely, have miniscule success rates. Only once out of 184 quarters has the away team won with an '8'. That occurred in 1995 during Super Bowl XXIX when the Chargers found themselves on the short end of a 42-18 score at the end of the third quarter against the 49ers. The home team has produced eight winners overall with an '8'.

Another number that does not produce many winners is '2'. Between the home and away teams, that digit has won only nine total times our of 184 quarters. The number '5' has produced just 10 winners between the home and away teams.

Are you feeling like you have little chance because you drew an '8'? Well, this may make you feel a little better: In the 49ers’ five previous Super Bowl appearances, an '8' has hit five times. But there have been only nine 8s to hit in Super Bowl history.

So, sure, there’s no skill or handicapping involved in winning a squares pool. But you now have a better idea if you’ll be eating a hot dog or a filet on Monday night.