January 27, 2011

A new Pew Internet report found that in the run-up to the 2010 midterm elections, 22 percent of online adults were “political social media users.” They used social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to get involved in a campaign, share political news and information, or encourage their friends to commit to vote.

And unlike in 2008, Democrats do not have an advantage:

Overall, Democratic and Republican voters are equally likely to use social networking sites (among internet users, 58% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans do so). This is a notable change from the 2008 campaign, in which Obama voters were significantly more likely than McCain voters to use these sites, and reflects recent overall trends in social networking site adoption by older adults (who tend to lean Republican in their voting habits). Similarly, both supporters and detractors of the “Tea Party” movement each use these sites at roughly similar rates (54% of internet users who agree with the Tea Party movement and 60% of those who disagree with the group use these sites, a difference that is not statistically significant).

Aaron Smith, a senior research specialist at Pew, said in a statement:

The social networking population as a whole has grown larger and demographically more diverse in recent years, and the same is true when it comes to political activity on social networking sites. These platforms are now utilized by politically active individuals of all ages and ideologies to get news, connect with others, and offer their thoughts on the issues that are important to them.

The sisters were determined to tell our story in real time with field reports from black women who were leading nonpartisan GOTV efforts and monitoring the polls.

And the story is, black voters turned out. Exit polls show African American voters represented 10 percent of the electorate, virtually unchanged from 2006. If the past is prologue, black women represented a disproportionate share of the black electorate.

To be sure, Democrats were hoping for a presidential year surge in black voters but they have to ask themselves: What did they do to make it happen? Where were the resources to mobilize black voters? A last-minute black media spend is not a GOTV plan.

An intergenerational group of black women will rock the house that Dr. Dorothy I. Height built when they gather for the Power of the Sister Vote post-election briefing. They will discuss black voter turnout, how women candidates fared in congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative races. They will share their views and outlook on what impact the new political landscape will have on issues of importance to women and families.

November 04, 2010

The mainstream media and pundits are pinning the blame for Democrats’ historic losses in the midterm elections on young voters and minorities.

While journalists and talking-heads are entitled to their own opinions, they are not entitled to their own facts. Fact is, comparing 2010 to 2008 is like comparing apples and oranges. Turnout is always higher for a presidential election than for midterm elections.

In a midterm election, turnout is lower for all groups. This salient point was noted parenthetically by the Washington Post’s Dan Balz:

The percentage of the electorate is used as a measure because turnout is always smaller in congressional elections than in presidential elections, for all groups.

Exit polls show that turnout among young voters, African Americans and Latinos was virtually unchanged from the last midterm election.

The Census Bureau reported that more than 96 million people, including 9,937,000 million African Americans, voted in the 2006 midterm election. The black share of the electorate was roughly 10 percent.

The blame for Democrats’ “shellacking” rightly falls on Democrats who didn’t listen to the American people. They forgot that they work for us and their contracts can be terminated at will every two or six years.

If Democrats want to pin their losses on someone other than themselves, then blame white women, seniors and independents. According to CNN exit polls, Democratic candidates received only 37 percent of the white vote.

Seniors and independents kicked Democrats to the curb. The Associated Press reported:

Exit polls of voters in the congressional elections show the damage Democrats must repair - 56 percent of independents and 59 percent of seniors voted for Republican House candidates, with each delivering decisive margins of roughly 20 percentage points for the GOP.

The bottom line: The demographic makeup of the electorate was unchanged from 2006, the last midterm election.