Harvey late Monday morning: Rains remain, but storm finally moving

Posted by Eric Berger at 10:33 AM on August 28, 2017

Monday, 10:30am CT—There is no way to escape the reality of the situation on the ground this morning: Houston bayous are flooding, and even after the region has received 30 inches of rain during the last two days, more is now falling over the central Houston area. It is a catastrophic situation. Finally, however, the end is in sight. Another day or two of this …

Harvey

Harvey remains barely a tropical storm, but its center moved into the Gulf of Mexico near Matagorda Bay this morning. Presently moving to the southeast at about 5 mph, some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two as Harvey turns east, then northeast, but as discussed yesterday we are not too concerned about this possibility due to the lack of an organized core, and additionally some drier air is working into the storm. (See official track forecast).

Tropical Storm Harvey at 10am CT on Monday. (NOAA)

Overall, Harvey’s movement into the Gulf may be a positive development, because the storm is getting closer to being picked up by lower pressure in the Midwestern United States, which should lift it north. By later Tuesday, or Wednesday, we should hopefully be on the back side of the storm, with northerly winds helping to push water from inland bayous out to the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains should end, hopefully, by Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Short-term concerns

During the last day or so the core of heaviest rainfall associated with Harvey has moved from Houston, to the Beaumont area, and now to Lafayette and Alexandra, La. That is not to say the rains have stopped in Houston. Rather, this morning, there is a pretty nasty line of showers along Highway 59, from El Campo up through downtown Houston. Rainfall rates here are not pleasant, at 0.5 to 1.5 inches an hour, but they probably aren’t heavy enough to greatly magnify the region’s already exceptional flooding problems.

Our forecast for the rest of the day is somewhat optimistic—but with some concerns. We expect rainfall rates in storms developing over Houston to be manageable (i.e. less than 2 inches of rainfall per hour) throughout most of the day. However, some of the model guidance is indicating that some heavier and more problematic rains could develop this afternoon and evening over Houston. We are going to have to watch this closely.

A lot of friends, family members, and readers have asked me “Is the worst over?” The answer is probably yes, if only because the region has already absorbed 20 to 30 inches of rain. And we’re almost certainly not going to get that much rain over the next two to three days. But some areas in greater Houston probably could still see another 10 to 15 inches of rain. So I’m afraid that it’s going to be another day of watching the radar as we just can’t breathe a sigh of relief yet with Harvey’s center so close.

We’ll update early this afternoon when we have more confidence about rain conditions later today and tonight.

Jayne

JEC

I know my post sounds like a million others, but thank you for providing this vital information in such a clear, concise way. The weight of caring for my elderly parents and young children during this nightmare is crushing. To have to interpret the meteorological data on my own or wade through the incessant chatter of the local news would just add to the stress. I’ll remember Eric and Matt for the rest of my life.

Ted Hulick

Amy N

Thanks Eric for posting so frequently, and for remaining realistic and calm. I look forward to your posts. Here in the Walnut Bend subdivision, things have not been bad although it was touch-and-go on Saturday night. No water in the house yet, so I’m hopeful that we will continue to stay dry.

Olive

It’s really going to depend on where you are, as rainfall totals vary greatly across the area. Many of us have personal weather stations that report on Weather Underground. If you look there and find a station near you, you can get rainfall totals for each day and add them together. For what it’s worth, I’m just south of Pearland on 288 and I’ve recorded just shy of 21″ since Harvey started dumping on us.

Zack

MM

Thank you, Eric. I evacuated yesterday and am now watching/reading from a distance. Our fair city will be recovering from Harvey for months and possibly years to come. I appreciate the sincerity in your updates.

lee

Sadly, we lost power about an hour ago in League City (Brittany Bay/Brittany Lakes area)—reasonably clear skies and no rain or anything. Walked outside and saw neighbors up and down the street poking their heads out the doors. T&NMP says it could be back on literally any time between now and Thursday morning.

Not looking forward to a few nights in the damp heat, but frankly I’ll be grateful if this is the worst thing that happens in our neck of the woods. Stay safe, everyone.

Steve

lee

Fortunately, we got power back after about 80 minutes without it. With luck, the outage was just due to ongoing repair work (maybe a pole replacement or something). Continuing to hunker down and wait—fortunately with AC, at least for now.

Tony

Thank you for your sympathetic and well-thought out posts on this storm. While it sounds like things are on the upswing I can’t but feel I may be jinxing things by thinking that, with all the punches this storm has thrown at Houston.

Sian oyd

hunter

The rains in our area are slowing down the receding of Brays bayou, which means that the destruction of Robindell us stretching out the agony.
I got to ride a small power boat down one of the most beautiful tree lined streets in Houston. The water was high enough that I had to duck my head from time to time.

Thank you, again, Eric and Matt, for responsible and responsive weather reporting. I am referring family and friends in and out of Houston to your site. It makes such a difference
to have your angle on this storm and experience.

Sarah

Can y’all please try to briefly assess the issue with the Brazos River and impact to the Fort Bend / Sugar Land area? Lots of family and friends there that could use a solid realistic take on it. Many people suddenly went from no evacuation to mandatory evacuation status within 12 hours and many, especially those in the voluntary evacuation zones, are trying to figure out what to do. Y’all’s input would be greatly appreciated!!!

Courtney

Lucie

I’m stir crazy, and feeling very helpless. My coworkers in Dickinson are holed up on 2nd floors or being rescued by trucks and a caravan of flat bottom boats that came over from Louisiana. Please pray for them, there’s nothing much I can do from Clear Lake. My condo complex has not had any water inside, which is only because of a new retention hole being developed at Exploration Green (old Clear Lake Golf Course). Thank you for hanging in there with us. We are planning a cookout as soon as the sky is clear again which can’t come soon enough. I need some Vitamin D!

Bob Brown

Eric, Matt, you guys are the best. As my friends and family around the country email/text me questions and concerns, I send back the link to your page. We’re just north of Tomball on a heavly wooded lot so concern is for high winds on soggy ground. Any predictions on max wind gusts northwest of Houston?

Amy b

Eric, thank you for all that you and Matt have done.
We are just south of buffalo bayou near the barker dam release point. Near Eldridge and briar forest. We have been fine so far but scared that the imminent increased release will change everything. We are only 6′ higher than the bayou.
Should we be worried that this will be the thing that has us calling for rescue?

Adam B

Thank you so much for the amazing job you’re doing. It’s been invaluable as I am out of state trying to monitor multiple households of my family across the region. The news is chaos without enough detail. This site has been an incredible resource. Please keep it up. You’re helping so many.

Jane M Smith

From Ayesha Khan:
If you’re at home and safe but have lost electricity or run out of food- the Indian community of Houston has locations serving free food and offering free medical services (see below).
If anyone is at or near a major shelter that is running out of food, contact me ASAP via FB MESSAGE we have caterers in the area that can provide free food for 50-1000 people.
* The Curry House in Cypress has agreed to feed 50-100 people at a time for free. If you’re operating a smaller shelter in the area, or even for your family alone- call 713-725-9805. Address: 10728 Cypress Creek Pkwy
*Chatkara Grill at 6202 Hwy 6 is also delivering free food with the help of the National Guard. Call 2819887141
* Pearland has been hit hard. The Biryani Express is giving out individual food packets for free. Call (281) 707-9574
* Cypress Folks: You can reach Dr. Minni Malhotra at 606-854-2551 for free. If she can’t reach you, she’ll help you over the phone for free.
* Deep Foods is giving out hampers with snacks, candles/ gas lamps, other essentials at Biryani Pot in Katy or Swagath Grocery in Katy.
* Woodlands area: Hyderabad House is giving free lunch and dinner out for families. Call (361) 815-0166 or contact Sudheer directly at 713.714.7124
* Katy: universal bakery is offering shelter in their multi purpose hall and food for occupants. Address: 27131 Cinco Ranch Blvd Contact Surya at 732 447 5886
* Café India and Chowpatty Chaat in Sugarland will try to deliver food to nearby areas if they can reach them. Call Dinesh at 732 593 9650
* Biryani Pot in Katy will remain open at all times and serve free food for those affected. Call Vinay to see what capacity they have at (610) 714-2123
* Free Family medicine help- Dr. Manjula Raguthu 956-639-8699 and Dr. Surya Raguthu 956-639-8666
* Meridien Springs primary care is also offering free consults and help, Dr. Bhavana Rao 281-826-1359
* Bawarchi Houston can pack free family meals for those in need, contact Naveen at 973-393-7117
* Alaina to Riverstone Community: Vishala restaurant is serving free food and will try their best to get food out to your door. Contact Manoj +1 (248) 778-8855
* Katy area evacuation: contact Christopher who has a high water vehicle and boat. Call 281-687-8992
Lol v proud of the desi community. And believe me, Biryani has a way of making a lot of things better. Stay safe everyone ❤️