Among the inventions of California, the think tank may be the most overlooked. Part research lab, part consulting racket, and part sandbox for bright, nerdy types, a think tank sells deep analysis of complex trends in politics, society, and
technology. One of the most legendary think tanks is SRI, based
in Menlo Park, California. Watts
Wacker joined SRI in 1995 as a futurist; previously, he ran a global project for Yankelovich, another think tank, tracking the shifting values of consumers - as in, What do they want? Although he has a degree in cultural history, Wacker's formative education came from
his three years with the Kenner toy company and from the two radio stations he operated in Texas.

Wired

: It says here on your card, "Resident Futurist." How does one become a resident futurist?

Wacker

: You become a futurist just by announcing that you are.

Umm, so what do you actually do?

My job is partly to be a provocateur. My role is to make sure that companies I consult for don't make sins of omission. When they try to define the boundaries for a strategy or a problem or a new product, my job is to make sure that they aren't setting them in a constricting layout and therefore limiting their flexibility and their opportunity.

Do you make predictions?

Five years ago, I predicted that Halloween would become the second biggest holiday in the country. As far as influence upon our psyche, it is now second only to Christmas.

So, how does a resident futurist go about making such forecasts?

I think any futurist who tells you they know what's going to happen
is being a bit arrogant. Rather, it's really like being a good science fiction writer. There's a logic behind your story; it makes you nod your head and go, Yeah, I could see that. That could happen.

Then how do you come up with these persuasive "could-be" stories?

One of my favorite techniques is
to use observational work. For instance, recently I've bused tables at Taco Bells. I've driven the shuttle bus from Avis. I panhandle in the George Washington bus terminal - my record is US$62.14 in one day.

And what do you learn from doing that?

I would call my observational work a tool for gaining social empathy, for perspectives other than my own.

What other methods do you use?

I've given 1,000 teenaged boys a camera with 100 pictures to take of their life. I then sort out what's going on with kids in general based on their visuals, not words.

And what did that tell you?

If you really want to understand what's happening with a kid, the only place you need to excavate is their room. Because it is an unbelievably on-the-
surface sense of their personal mythology. Also interestingly, every teenaged boy took at least one picture of the same thing: somebody mooning.