The market for mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras in the UK fell for the first time in September according to research from GfK Retail and Technology. The number of units sold fell 1% while price competition saw the value of those sales reduced by 17%, compared to the same time in 2010. DSLR sales, by comparison, rose 6%, though value fell 1%. The picture across Europe was mixed, though.

In other European countries, that were slower to embrace Mirrorless cameras, the picture looks more positive. France also saw a modest decline in unit sales but Italy, Germany and Spain all saw increases in the number of cameras sold, with rises of 3.8%, 15.5% and 18.3% respectively, over the same time in 2010. Volumes for the year so far are up, compared to 2010, in all these markets, though again price competition and discounting have seen the value of these sales fall by between 11% and 26%, despite more cameras being sold.

Overall, GfK says it believes the mirrorless camera market: 'is still a huge growth area for the digital cameras market,' pointing out the 36% value growth since the start of the year, the arrival of more manufacturers (and the increased public awareness that it likely to bring), and the fact the figures compare September 2011 to a month that had seen a 314% increase.

Press Release:

UK: The Digital Cameras market doom and bloom

Photo industry market research from the UK (January 2011-September 2011 YTD) shows digital still cameras are down by 7%. September 2011 retail sales show that the overall market remained flat on last year with 0% growth. This was helped by a 6% volume increase in the digital SLR segment. Year-on-year, the compact system camera segment (CSC) dropped sales in September 2011, declining by 1%.

The overall digital camera market fell by 8% in September

Value paints a darker picture, which is indicative of intensifying price competition, with the overall market falling by 8% in September. All three main segments declined in September and the compact system camera segment experienced its worst drop in retail sales value (-17%) since significant sales began in June 2009.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom thanks to the changeable lens market. The SLR segment is proving to be very strong, with extensive sustained growth. The SLR segment has not had negative volume growth since May 2010, and year-to-date the segment is up by 9%, 10% in Q3 and 6% in September 2011. The fact that value has also grown by 3% year-to-date, shows the strength of this market. Admittedly, the SLR segment declined in value by 1% in September but this was against a 20% increase in September 2010.

The compact system camera segment is a huge growth area for the digital camera

The compact system camera segment is still a huge growth area for the digital cameras market, despite experiencing its first volume decline in September of 1%; this was against the phenomenal growth of 314% in September 2010. Year-to-date retail sales are still up, despite huge price reductions, and have grown by 36%. Pentax and Nikon have both entered the market in 2011 and Fuji announced that they too will be releasing a compact system camera early in 2012. With the CSC becoming more visible to the public through a number of campaigns and more brands entering the market growth should continue.

The real driver behind the DSC’s decline is the fixed lens, but even here there is a bright spot. The relatively new Superzoom category, compact cameras with 10x optical zoom or more, grew volumes by 61% in September 2011 and 45% so far this year.

Comments

In a perfect world I'd have a full frame DSLR (?medium format) and a quiver of lens. Oh and a camera-caddy to carry them for me while my 2 year old son tries to run in the wrong direction.In the real world I have a full frame DSLR AND a m4/3 system (and a Nokia N8 phone). OK, so I have to balance quality against size and, yes, I sometimes grumble over the quality of the pictures (but not often). BUT I've got a camera with me all the time (and the best photo from the last wedding was from the N8), and my back is still intact. Not willing to suffer for my art? Not that much...

Jake you are missing it...I think. The future is a compact that has no shutter lag and has many of the qualities of dslr in smaller package. The point and shoot wil disappear as the phones replace that segment. People want dslr in compact package. Get ready...it is the future.

Are they comparing monthly sales (this September to September of last year) - or sales over two 12 month periods (September to September)?

If it is just comparing September of this year to September of last year there could be several factors that might cause a fluctuation.

For instance, this September some new mirrorless cameras had been announced, or were anticipated, but hadn't hit the market yet (E-P3, EPL-3, NX200 ,NEX 7, NEX 5N, Nikon J1, Nikon V1) - I'd expect this to depress the market for existing models.

New models coming out also means price cuts on those existing models ~ which might explain a lot of the drop in retail sales value.

While I don't think that the mirrorless market is going to collapse, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes flat sometime soon. I think that the camera companies are stupid to think that mirrorless will ever be an upgrade option for P&S buyers, meaning that mirrorless will see uptake by a certain sub-segment of the traditional DSLR market and then go no further.

Mirrorless is less attractive to PS users as they are attractive to DSLR users. That's the category choosing mirrorless in droves when it comes to upgrading the old camera. Mirrorless market is mostly eating up into DSLR market share.

Is the full text of the GfK report available? Any break-out of the units and revenues attributed to each brand or model? Perhaps not.

I'd wonder if the fall in mirroless sales might also reflect displacement due to greater reliance on cellphone cameras, which are collectively the 400 lbs gorilla in the market, even if only bushbaby size each.

Will the alluded Fuji CSC be like the Q, the V1, or a less expensive m4/3?

There are three factors that must be taken into account: 1) seasonal variations, 2) market saturation, 3) rate of obsolescence. Firstly, a long term moving average of mirrorless camera sales still shows a steep growth, variations are normal and depend on many factors. Secondly, any explosive growth ends in saturation followed by decline (that's where traditional DSLRs are now). Mirrorless cameras are no longer a novelty, they in slower maturing stage. Thirdly, people don't just buy any new camera they like, most people decide to upgrade after at least a few years of camera use. Cameras are pretty expensive, so there is a natural inertia in upgrading them. Since mirrorless cameras put pressure on low- to mid-range DSLRs, which experienced a great growth and market saturation in the last 5-10 years, it would take a few years for market to make them obsolete. It's clear though that camera minituarization efforts will continue, because that's what people want.

Haha! Too right. When I look back I still reckon my best shots were taken on my FE2, with the split image removed and replaced by plain ground glass. It meant I composed and focussed as I saw the image. Sure, I lost plenty shots to poor focus. Now with AF I lose even more to poor composition, or tack-sharp focus...on the wrong thing.

I've wasted an inordinate amount of time following the sagas associated with mirror-less cameras and in the end it seems that in spite of the 2% increase in size, DSLR's still represent a technology that works better, more often than anything else.

I too was eagerly following the x100, NEX-7, etc but it seems that for the average pro-sumer, a D90 or something similar will cover all the bases.

Same here. After all the hype and attention the mirrorless market has been getting, the bottom line seems to be that we still do not have a CSC that can hold a candle to any of the prosumer/high-end DSLRs out there with regards to AF performance, IQ, DR etc. Sony are almost there with the NEX system but don't have the lenses. Fuji may be there early next year with their upcoming ILC offering but we still wait for something that ticks all the boxes.

People make different claims re. what can hold candle to what. It's just a meaningless noise. The only things that are worth discussing are the results of objective testing, like those done on this site, which show that taking the mirror out doesn't lead to any significant losses, but does bring a lot of advantages. If the market tendencies continue, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, prosumer DSLRs will become dinosaurs in less than a decade, APS-C sensors will be mostly gone, and 3/4th probably will be the largest sensor used in advanced cameras, majority will use smaller sizes, and the quality will likely be better than current cameras. The truth is as soon as the quality becomes good enough, other factors become dominant.

If prosumer DSLRs are going to become technological dinosaurs within a decade, it's taking a mighty long time for the manufacturers to come out with a sensor that can match the best there is - for example, the Nikon D3s/D3x which has been around for over 2 years now. Look at the Sony A77! Hardly what you'd call a step closer is it? If anything, it's moving further away. The noise from that compared to the D3 is a joke! Until the manufacturers can produce a smaller sensor that can compete with the big boys, the big boys will still rule.

What many have to understand is that although many people want smaller cameras, many also want versatility. I love my D700 with Vertical grip. But sometimes I want a simpler lighter camera. I remove the vertical grip slap on a 50mm/1.4 and go. I have larger hands so ergonomically i can carry the camera comfortably all day if necessary.

I think the fact everyone is missing is that a significant portion of MILC camera sales goes to DSLR users who want a smaller, more portable camera as a "second camera" to use alongside their DSLR.

They get better quality than they would using a high end compact P&S camera, and they can even use their DSLR lenses with adapters.

Once you fill the pipeline, that is... every DSLR user who wants a MILC camera owns one.... then sales to this segment falls flat. They aren't likely to upgrade the "second camera" as often as they do their main shooter.

Also.... MILC cameras are relative expensive, usually costing more than entry level DSLRs. This puts them out of reach for many people with modest means.

MILC cameras certainly have their place, but the wild predictions that they would "take over the market" were grossly exaggerated.

You have a point about cost but keep in mind that high end compacts such as Canon G12 etc are up there in price as well - $600 in oz. The Olympus E-PM1 is the same price here (with kit zoom) and this is probably the best example of M4/3 maturing where the cost has come down to a reasonable level. Sure it doesn't have same level of direct control but it's a competitive option.

Please! We are talking about millions units sold, most of those people wouldn't need a backup or second camera. The mirrorless sales are comprised of people who were DSLR users before or contemplated buying one and discovered they are much better served by mirrorless cameras which cost pretty much the same.

It's not misleading. The fact that there is a 1% drop is important because of the huge growth last year!When you compare 314% with 36% you realize that while they are still doing good, they are doing much worse than last year.

Someone who wants higher quality images than a point and shoot but doesn't want to carry around a full sized SLR? Just because you don't want one doesn't mean there's not a market for it. I sell a lot of mirrorless cameras, and for the most part my customers are very happy with them.

I think that the best thing about these CSCs is that they will mount practically any old lens there is. My 550D, on the other hand, will only take M42, OM, F and a few other less interesting mounts. There is no FD support and it's difficult to get the manual focus lenses for video that I want.

In this regard, CSC ir very good value for money. Unfortunately, they're not really good for video. The NEX-5N does, what, 28 MBit/s? The 550D with Magic Lantern easily takes 70-100 Mbit/s videos if you use an external audio recorder. But these mirror-less cameras will not give you zebras, cropmarks or support for log color space any time soon, will they?

The problem is the sensors just aren't competitive with DSLRs. I've seen high ISO samples in real life and they're just terrible. A while ago, when this was an exotic function, this wouldn't have mattered so much as people would have been happy to stay below 400. It's something they'll really need to work on, as their form factor is excellent for the more casual shooter who is now lumbered with a DSLR. Also, they need to standardize built-in EVF's. Without this, they seem like a glorified compact and their low resolution LCDs don't make up for it.

Basically, consumers are very smart and their money is hard-earned. They and shop staff that bid their trust will see through marketing talk to the real issues before they make a purchase, and people looking for a 'second system' are few and far between. Until it improves, mirror less is still in beta stage and a lot of people know it. Other issues, like smaller and faster lenses are also there, as for some, lack of DOF control is an issue.

G Davidson: You're totally wrong. The sensors of the NEX 5n is good as any other DSLR, probably better than most of them (specially about high ISO).The only sensor in DLSR who impress me more than the NEX is the one on the pentax k5.

G Davidson:No offense, but several of your comments are based on pure conjecture and half-truths. Also, what does "seeing high ISO samples in real life" mean? A print? I hope you considered the numerous paper and printer variables that affect print output?

It's true I'm overstating it and the comment about IQ was about M4/3 images I'd seen on forums here. My point is really that despite having the advantage of size, the mirrorless camera aren't such complete systems (yet) as the DSLRs and have some work to do before they unseat them. Theyll need

Better sensors for high ISO (for M4/3)Brighter lenses for controlling DOF, which are starting to arriveBuilt in EVF as standard Phase detection AF for sports, or even moving babies.

When all that arrives, they can dethrone the bulky DSLRs. Don't get me wrong, I want one as a light and high quality backup, it's just not comprehensive enough to be my main system yet though I can see that time coming in a few years.

G Davidson: With the arrival of EPM1 and the like I think we are getting pretty close in terms of AF speed. I just got my EPM1 and playing with it, and I am really impressed with the response I am getting with it.

As someone who just start playing with it I snap a lot of crappy photos! But I know that more than anything it is the lack of experience and it has nothing to do with the camera. Same type of image would have been produced even with a 7D for the lack of technique and experience.

Perhaps the initial enthusiasm about the whole concept just went flat - I see lot of these models sold here in Oz through overstock stores. Olympus Pen series is greatly discounted through retail. Nikon just introduced 1 cameras on the market and, oh my... they are just over optimistic (Dick Smith catalogue had it yesterday advertised "DSLR quality im much smaller package" with pricing set at AUD$1099 and AUD$1349 respectivelly). Eventually, NEX7 may grab some market, but most people are very traditional how they see digital cameras - either small ones that do fit in their pockets and those which don't. Oversupply of these new MILC cameras have just confused average buyers and I guess they still go "safe" way. Not everyone is into gear like people who visit this site. If they want "big" camera, real DSLR or superzoom appears to be "safe" way. In such circumstances, perhaps Canon will not rush in..IMO

The biggest winner in gaining momentum in sales based on the above article is the 10X+ superzooms. This should not be very surprising considering the small travel ones go from 24mm wide angle even up to 450mm tele all in one convenient camera which can fit in any pocket. Add to that the improvements made in backlit sensors and now fast high speed performance and special modes like auto combining pictures for panorama landscapes or best exposure. Many see the small superzoom and small DSLR or MILC camera as an ideal match.

Despite how advanced camera phones are becoming, it will be a long time before they can pack a 36x optical zoom in one. It sure makes sense that manufacturers start to pay more attention and diversify the line-up in this category, specifically with larger sensors like the X-S1

Except the u34, the APS CSC is in model change season; both NEX and NX are ramping up their new products, which aren't quite abundant in stores yet. Then we're in somewhat financially troubled times as well... and most of us already have a few good enough cameras (dSLR, P&S, phone).

Canon didn't even have any kind of improvements on it's DSLRs during several years, whereas some other manufacturers brought significant innovations along with their DSLRs and even more so with their EVILs.

Well, Canon didn't make improvements on their DSLR simply because of one thing: there is no bloody competitors.....I do hope Nikon or whoever, make something that can ultimately beat Canon...but unfortunately, no one can. That is a fact.SONY made a big head camera and forgot one thing that mirrorless could bring: reduce the size.I am going for the x10 while waiting canon to produce something interesting.

To be honest, I'm not really so keen on the interchangeable lens bit either. The whole point is I want this thing in my pocket, and that includes the glass, all of it. I'm not wearing one of those 'safari' vests with a lens stuffed down each pocket.

So by all means give me a bigger sensor if possible (yes, the Nikon 1 has a 'bigger' sensor than the usual pocket camera), but don't then burden it with anything that will only get left at home.For all that other stuff I have a DSLR.

This is why I have never seen the point of these types of cameras. They aren't really small enough to be a take every where pocket camera and once you have a dedicated camera bag you might as will bring a DSLR that has better auto focus, ergonomics, and image quality.

Maybe everybody is finally waking up to that now (the fact that a small camera which is too big to be taken with you is no better than a larger camera which is to big to be taken with you), hence the sales figures.

No, what I want is a camera the same size as my S95 or Samsung EX1 but with a 1" or 4/3rds sensor. I couldn't give a damn about interchangeable lenses; just give me something like a 24-105mm, F1.8 - f3.5 zoom range and AMOLED screen with the bigger sensor and you've got my money!!!!

I sort of agree that M43 and the like isn't what many of us really want it to be yet. I still have to put it in my backpack and in terms of size the difference from when I put my K-x in my backpack is not major. However, in terms of weight I feel I have gained a significant advantage with M43. The K-x is small and light by DSLR standards, but it still bothered me. With a M43 I don't really notice it and I also don't notice any tiredness in my shoulder after having it slung there for a whole day out.

So, for me it's progress, but only a work in progress. I, too, want what chadley wants.

I can comfortably fit my Samsung NX100 with 30mm pancake in a coat pocket. That's all I need - something to capture great quality images, for the times when I can't be bothered to carry my DSLR and lens collection around on my back.

You migth want try out the Fuji X10. Sensor 2/3 would be much smaller than 4/3, but would yield exceptional image quality. Hopefully the lens would not let it down, though that's unlikely given the price of $600.

A T3i with kit lens weighs like 1.6 pounds. A Nex with kit lens weighs right around a pound. The differnce is not that much. If 1.6 pounds is too much for you, you need a gym not a slightly lighter camera lol.

You'd be hard-pressed to argue that the entire audience for mirrorless cameras is waiting for one model. The mirrorless market is big enough and diverse enough that trying to pin it down to a single factor would be simplistic speculation - which wouldn't be a useful addition to the story.

This is not to say there is no demand for that camera. Once the comparatively large amount of pre-orders have been filled for the NEX-7, there will be no large scale demand for it. It is too expensive.

Ahhhh, we found the one tiny bitsy part of completely out of context info that says CSC is deaaaaaaaad ... aaaargh. What a pitiful way to get kliks. But as it goes, that's the way NEWS is all about isn't it folks? Baaad news is always better, even if it's totally out if context. Even this poster couldn't help but chime in ;) DPR is right to post this, it's news isn't it?