Most Recent FO Features

There's a serious need for defensive help in Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Oakland. In Denver, meanwhile, the Broncos must determine whether or not Case Keenum can really be a long-term solution at quarterback.

Most Recent Extra Points

2016 Defeats

by Vincent Verhei

As work on Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 continues, we pause to look back at the 2016 season through the lens of some of our advanced statistics. Today we are going to focus on defeats, and what they can tell us about some of the best defenders in the league. We have lots of statistics to measure quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, even kickers, but our numbers for individual defensive players are a lot more limited. Defeats are one way to account for defenders who make frequent appearances on highlight reels.

As a reminder, a defender is credited with a defeat any time he makes one of the following plays:

A tackle that results in a loss of yardage, including sacks.

Any play that results in a turnover, including tipped passes which are then intercepted.

Any tackle or tipped pass that leads to a stop on third or fourth down.

Over the years, two names have regularly dominated the defeats leaderboard: Houston defensive end J.J. Watt, and Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David. From 2012 to 2015, Watt ranked first, third, first, and first in defeats, while David ranked fifth, first, second, and second. Watt, however, missed most of the 2016 season with a back injury. David played in all 16 games and had another outstanding season, but missed out on the defeats crown because an unheralded linebacker flew up the charts with an under-the-radar season.

NFL Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

BUF

52-P.Brown

LB

10

21

31

2

OAK

52-K.Mack

DL

15

14

29

2

DEN

58-V.Miller

LB

20

9

29

2

TB

54-L.David

LB

19

10

29

5

BUF

57-L.Alexander

LB

19

9

28

5

DAL

50-S.Lee

LB

12

16

28

5

TB

58-K.Alexander

LB

16

12

28

8

ARI

44-M.Golden

LB

16

11

27

8

BUF

53-Z.Brown

LB

11

16

27

8

JAC

50-T.Smith

LB

12

15

27

8

SEA

50-K.Wright

LB

14

13

27

12

BAL

54-Z.Orr

LB

12

14

26

12

JAC

51-P.Posluszny

LB

14

12

26

14

NO

94-C.Jordan

DL

11

14

25

14

GB

53-N.Perry

LB

15

10

25

14

MIN

54-E.Kendricks

LB

18

7

25

14

PHI

53-N.Bradham

LB

13

12

25

18

NYG

20-J.Jenkins

CB

20

4

24

18

LARM

99-A.Donald

DL

12

12

24

18

MIA

93-N.Suh

DL

13

11

24

18

ARI

55-Ch.Jones

LB

17

7

24

18

ATL

44-V.Beasley

LB

17

7

24

18

CLE

58-C.Kirksey

LB

11

13

24

18

LARM

52-A.Ogletree

LB

12

12

24

18

SEA

54-B.Wagner

LB

11

13

24

18

NYG

21-L.Collins

SAF

17

7

24

We like to think that our readers are the smartest, most well-informed group of football fans out there, but odds are a lot of you are scratching your heads right now and asking "Who on earth is '52-P.Brown?'" That would be Buffalo linebacker Preston Brown, who has quietly started 46 of 48 games for the Bills since he was drafted in the third round in 2014. Brown hardly fits the profile of a big-play defender, with only three interceptions and one sack in his career. But Brown did a little bit of everything in 2016:

Twelve run tackles for loss.

Nine run tackles for stops on third or fourth down, including four with 1 or 2 yards to go.

Seven tackles on completed passes for third-down stops.

One tackle for a loss on a completed pass.

One sack.

One forced fumble.

As if Brown wasn't surprising enough on top of the leaderboards, we also see his teammates Zach Brown (no relation to Preston) (or to this guy) and Lorenzo Alexander in the top ten as well. The Bills as a team were just 23rd in pass defeats, but they led the league in run defeats, and were sixth in overall defeats. This is all quite shocking, because as you'll recall the Buffalo defense was lousy last year, especially against the run. What's going on here? Part of it is that the Bills faced a lot of runs—489, to be exact, second-most among defenses behind San Francisco. More running plays means more opportunities for run defeats. The Bills defense registered a defeat on 16 percent of opponents' run plays, which was just 15th in the NFL. More to the point, when the Bills didn't get a defeat on a running play, it meant bad news. The average non-defeat run against Buffalo gained 5.6 yards, fourth-most in the league.

One other factor in Brown's ascension to the top: defeats were way down in 2016, at least on an individual level. Brown's total of 31 is the lowest among league-leaders in our database, which goes back to 1997. Brown was also the only player to collect 30 defeats this year. Every other season has seen at least three 30-defeat players, and as many as 13. The average season, including 2016, has produced 6.8 players with 30-plus defeats.

Brown led the league in run defeats, while Von Miller and Janoris Jenkins were tied for the league in pass defeats. David, once again, finished second (well, tied for second) in total defeats. The Bills were the only team with three players with at least 24 defeats; the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and Giants had two each. The Giants also had the only two defensive backs finish in the top 26, which brings us to our next point: The leaders in defeats, not surprisingly, are almost all linebackers. True, some of those are 3-4 types edge rusher types (Alexander, Miller, Markus Golden, etc.) But Khalil Mack, Cameron Jordan, Ndamukong Suh, and Aaron Donald are the only true defensive linemen among the leaders, and the Giants have the only two defensive backs. The other players listed here are all linebackers.

With that in mind, we're also listing a top 20 at each "position" -- not the traditional DL/LB/DB listings, but the role-based labels that are more appropriate for this sub package era of the NFL:

Defensive Linemen (3-4 defensive linemen and 4-3 defensive tackles)

Edge Rushers (3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends)

Linebackers (3-4 inside linebackers and all 4-3 linebackers)

Safeties

Cornerbacks

We won't have time to do a detailed breakdown of all players, obviously, but we'll drop notes on the most notable stars.

Defensive Linemen

Defensive Line Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

LARM

99-A.Donald

DL

12

12

24

1

MIA

93-N.Suh

DL

13

11

24

3

NYJ

92-L.Williams

DL

10

13

23

4

ARI

93-C.Campbell

DL

11

9

20

5

CAR

99-K.Short

DL

8

11

19

6

BUF

95-K.Williams

DL

6

11

17

6

CHI

96-A.Hicks

DL

9

8

17

6

CIN

97-G.Atkins

DL

11

6

17

6

TB

93-G.McCoy

DL

11

6

17

10

JAC

90-M.Jackson

DL

10

6

16

10

NYG

98-D.Harrison

DL

4

12

16

10

TEN

99-J.Casey

DL

9

7

16

13

NYJ

96-M.Wilkerson

DL

9

6

15

13

PIT

91-S.Tuitt

DL

7

8

15

15

BAL

99-T.Jernigan

DL

9

5

14

16

DAL

95-D.Irving

DL

6

7

13

16

PHI

91-F.Cox

DL

7

6

13

16

SD

94-C.Liuget

DL

3

10

13

19

JAC

99-S.Marks

DL

6

6

12

19

LARM

91-D.Easley

DL

7

5

12

19

NO

90-N.Fairley

DL

8

4

12

19

NYG

95-J.Hankins

DL

5

7

12

19

SF

99-D.Buckner

DL

6

6

12

19

WAS

92-C.Baker

DL

6

6

12

While Donald and Suh tied for the lead among linemen in total defeats, Suh was alone at the position with 13 pass defeats, and the Jets' Leonard Williams was first with 13 run defeats. Muhammad Wilkerson makes it two Jets among the leaders at this position, and Sheldon Richardson would have made it three, but he was technically an outside linebacker in 2016. The Jaguars, Giants, and Rams also have two players listed here. The Jaguars cut Sen'Derrick Marks after the season, but replaced him with Calais Campbell. Marks remains unsigned, and could always return to Jacksonville to give them a three-headed monster up front.

Edge Rushers

Edge Rusher Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

DEN

58-V.Miller

LB

20

9

29

1

OAK

52-K.Mack

DL

15

14

29

3

BUF

57-L.Alexander

LB

19

9

28

4

ARI

44-M.Golden

LB

16

11

27

5

GB

53-N.Perry

LB

15

10

25

5

NO

94-C.Jordan

DL

11

14

25

7

ARI

55-Ch.Jones

LB

17

7

24

7

ATL

44-V.Beasley

LB

17

7

24

9

HOU

90-J.Clowney

DL

7

15

22

9

PHI

55-B.Graham

DL

7

15

22

11

HOU

59-W.Mercilus

LB

9

12

21

11

KC

55-D.Ford

LB

12

9

21

11

NYJ

91-S.Richardson

LB

7

14

21

11

SD

54-M.Ingram

LB

10

11

21

11

SD

99-J.Bosa

DL

12

9

21

16

MIA

50-A.Branch

DL

11

9

20

16

NYG

54-O.Vernon

DL

12

8

20

16

SEA

56-C.Avril

DL

14

6

20

16

SEA

55-F.Clark

DL

14

6

20

16

WAS

93-T.Murphy

LB

10

10

20

Miller, of course, led this group in pass defeats, while Philadelphia's Brandon Graham and Houston's Jadeveon Clowney were first in run defeats. The Cardinals, Texans, and Seahawks were the only teams with a duo of edge rushers among the leaders.

Linebackers

Linebacker Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

BUF

52-P.Brown

LB

10

21

31

2

TB

54-L.David

LB

19

10

29

3

DAL

50-S.Lee

LB

12

16

28

3

TB

58-K.Alexander

LB

16

12

28

5

BUF

53-Z.Brown

LB

11

16

27

5

JAC

50-T.Smith

LB

12

15

27

5

SEA

50-K.Wright

LB

14

13

27

8

BAL

54-Z.Orr

LB

12

14

26

8

JAC

51-P.Posluszny

LB

14

12

26

10

MIN

54-E.Kendricks

LB

18

7

25

10

PHI

53-N.Bradham

LB

13

12

25

12

CLE

58-C.Kirksey

LB

11

13

24

12

LARM

52-A.Ogletree

LB

12

12

24

12

SEA

54-B.Wagner

LB

11

13

24

15

CAR

59-L.Kuechly

LB

12

11

23

16

ATL

45-D.Jones

LB

14

8

22

17

PIT

50-R.Shazier

LB

12

9

21

17

SD

57-J.Brown

LB

16

5

21

19

PHI

58-J.Hicks

LB

13

7

20

19

SD

56-K.Toomer

LB

10

10

20

We mentioned earlier that Brown was the NFL's leader in run defeats, but David was actually the top linebacker when it came to pass defeats. This seems to be a position where teammates frequently put up big numbers together—the Bills, Jaguars, Eagles, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers each put up two players among the leaders.

Safeties

Safety Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

NYG

21-L.Collins

SAF

17

7

24

2

ARI

22-T.Jefferson

SAF

7

13

20

3

PHI

27-M.Jenkins

SAF

14

5

19

4

DEN

43-T.Ward

SAF

13

3

16

4

LARM

25-T.McDonald

SAF

11

5

16

4

NO

32-K.Vaccaro

SAF

10

6

16

4

SEA

31-K.Chancellor

SAF

11

5

16

8

BAL

32-E.Weddle

SAF

9

6

15

8

GB

42-M.Burnett

SAF

12

3

15

8

JAC

37-J.Cyprien

SAF

6

9

15

8

KC

49-D.Sorensen

SAF

12

3

15

8

NYJ

25-C.Pryor

SAF

7

8

15

13

ARI

36-D.Swearinger

SAF

9

5

14

13

HOU

27-Q.Demps

SAF

11

3

14

13

KC

29-E.Berry

SAF

9

5

14

16

CAR

33-T.Boston

SAF

10

3

13

17

BUF

20-C.Graham

SAF

9

3

12

17

DAL

31-B.Jones

SAF

9

3

12

17

DET

27-G.Quin

SAF

9

3

12

17

OAK

27-R.Nelson

SAF

11

1

12

17

SF

29-J.Tartt

SAF

4

8

12

Collins led all safeties in both total defeats and pass defeats, while Arizona's (well, Baltimore's now) Tony Jefferson was first in run defeats. Arizona had two safeties among the leaders in defeats, as did Kansas City.

Cornerbacks

Cornerback Leaders in Total Defeats, 2016

Rk

Tm

Player

Pos

Pass Defeats

Rush Defeats

Total Defeats

1

NYG

20-J.Jenkins

CB

20

4

24

2

JAC

20-J.Ramsey

CB

15

4

19

2

WAS

24-J.Norman

CB

16

3

19

2

NYG

41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie

CB

18

1

19

2

HOU

21-A.Bouye

CB

18

1

19

6

KC

22-M.Peters

CB

15

3

18

6

SEA

25-R.Sherman

CB

16

2

18

8

SF

26-T.Brock

CB

12

5

17

8

NE

26-L.Ryan

CB

15

2

17

8

TB

24-B.Grimes

CB

16

1

17

8

BAL

36-T.Young

CB

17

0

17

12

LARM

20-L.Joyner

CB

12

4

16

12

NE

21-M.Butler

CB

14

2

16

12

DEN

25-C.Harris

CB

15

1

16

12

OAK

29-D.Amerson

CB

15

1

16

16

CLE

20-B.Boddy-Calhoun

CB

10

5

15

16

MIN

29-X.Rhodes

CB

11

4

15

16

GB

33-M.Hyde

CB

12

3

15

19

DEN

21-A.Talib

CB

12

2

14

19

MIA

41-B.Maxwell

CB

12

2

14

19

SD

26-C.Hayward

CB

14

0

14

While total defeats were down across the league, Janoris Jenkins' season was something we hadn't seen in a generation of NFL players. The last cornerback with 24 defeats in a single season was Casey Hayward, who had 25 as a rookie in Green Bay in 2012. Tramaine Brock and Briean Boddy-Calhoun tied for the lead among corners in run defeats. That's quite a turnaround for Brock -- he made 50 tackles in his first five seasons, exactly one of which came on a running play.

The Giants, Seahawks, Chargers, and Jaguars each had six players qualify in these leaderboards at their respective positions. Only one defense failed to put a single player in any of these top 20 lists: the Colts. Linebacker Erik Walden (16 defeats) and safety Clayton Geathers (10) were the only Indianapolis defenders to hit double digits in this statistic.

A good point, and the answer is yes. Navorro Bowman had 11 defeats in four games, which works out to 2.75 per game. Then Kuechly (2.30), then Brown (1.94). Other players with big defeat numbers in single-digit games were Justin Houston (9 defeats/5 games), Brandon Flowers (10/6), and Manti Te'o (5/3). That's two more Chargers with big years when you adjust for games played.

Patriots D is geared towards not letting people score TDs against them. They are above average in red zone, yet they give up loads of plays in the middle of the field, including on 3rd down. I would not think they should rate high in this kind of stat.

Excellent. You just made a claim about that Pts defense that's 1) objectively true or false and 2) measurable, and when the 2017 book comes out, we'll have the info to know if you're correct or not!

I'm leaning toward "not," because your claim--that the Pats D is the stereotypical "bend-don't-break" defense--seems too "common knowledge-y". Like "everyone knows you have to establish the run" is common knowledge as well. I'm skeptical that any defense actually fits that mold. A defensive is good or bad, whether at the 50 yard line or the red zone. But we'll see, it's certainly possible you're not wrong

Wait, did you just suggest defeats are a "useless" stat? I always felt this was one of the most obviously relevant and applicable stats FO has dreamed up. Please note how consistent it is from year to year at identifying the league's top individual defenders (see: Watt, JJ, and David, LaVonte).

Now OF COURSE it isn't perfect, see the discussion about Buffalo defenders this year, for example. But there is absolutely no way you can suggest it's "useless" without lying and ignoring facts like you're an attorney general from Alabama.

So if you actually have an argument to back up that notion, let's hear it. But I know you don't, otherwise you'd have mentioned it already.

It doesn't correlate well to defensive performance, and doesn't correlate well to player talent, so while "useless" is probably a strong word, that's the general gist. It's interesting, nothing more.

Like one of the posters says below, it's largely a measure of a combination of talent and aggression. JJ Watt is very good, and largely allowed to just go after the ball carrier, which is going to lead to a lot of defeat. There are other defensive lineman with different responsibilities, who are very good, who aren't going to show up at all.

JJ Watt is in pretty much every context, an extreme outlier. He's not who you measure the effectiveness of a stat with.

The defensive lineman and linebacker leaderboards of defeats are basically the Pro Bowl rosters. So I wouldn't agree this stat doesn't have some correlation with defensive performance or player talent. The safety and cornerback lists don't correlate as well with talent though.

That the individual defeat stats don't match the best team defenses merely points out how dependent any defense is on its weakest link, and the ability of a coach to hide that weakness.

Exactly; I wish this could be re-posted 100 times. This year we saw the Pat's defense get marginally better after getting rid of it's three most athletic/flashiest players in Easly, Ch Jones, and Collins, and substitute no one anyone has ever heard of. If you had Wade Phillips, BB, or even Rex Ryan, draft a 20-man defense from the entire NFL, I suspect at least 1/3 of the players would not overlap with the pro bowl, and at least 75% would not be all-pro's. I still think this stat has value in that it clearly tells us something about players, but if I was a GM every one of these guys is going on my list of players to watch out that I don't overpay.

Some good defenses don't need great players. Also, some players from good defenses who do very well there move on and don't look half as impressive elsewhere. But those kinds of defenses are rare. In any case, good players and good defenses are two completely different things. Just because you don't need great players on your defense doesn't mean you can't tell a great one from a useful one. Rating the quality players by how useful they would be to the Pats seems like a bit of a narrow view to me.

Well, defeats are just one metric we use in evaluating defenders. I wouldn't say they paint a perfect picture anymore than I would say touchdowns tell you everything you need to know about a wide receiver. Football Outsiders Almanac will include data on where players typically made tackles and how often those tackles were effective, and Brown wasn't in the top 60 at his position in those stats.

I could see how both could be true. A combination of tackles for loss and a low grade probably indicates very aggressive tackling, sacrificing form to get there just that little bit faster. When the gamble pays off, he stops the play for a loss. When it doesn't (and I bet it often doesn't), the RB has a lot of green in front of him.

That's probably a good description of the whole year for the Buffalo Bills (you'll notice 3 Bills in the top 8 overall, on a defense that was well below average). Defeats is a measure of aggression/explosiveness, not how good a player is; It's why the Bills do well in the measure and the Pat's do badly, but the Pats win a ton more football games than the Bills.

I do think Defeats might be a really good "scouting" stat; I've believed for a while that the Bills had a talented enough team to contend for a superbowl with their defense alone if they could eliminate the vast number of mistakes they make on both sides of the ball. The number of players they have on the defeats leaders list would seem to support that idea.

Defeats is a measure of aggression/explosiveness, not how good a player is

I think you're reading too much into one facet of the stat. The 2016 Bills defense is an outlier, and the FO guys here are doing a great job pointing out that this statistic doesn't work as well in these specific circumstances (and the problem is also a lot more prominent since it's such an abnormally low year for defeats to begin with. If Preston B. wasn't #1, and if all those Bills were diluted throughout the top 40 rather than 20, would we even have noticed anything looked strange?).

It's like Vince said above, it's one stat out of many. But I feel that over the long term, defeats is one of the most important stats we have. Unless you disagree about Watt and David being two of the best defenders of the decade...)

I do think Defeats might be a really good "scouting" stat; I've believed for a while that the Bills had a talented enough team to contend for a superbowl with their defense alone if they could eliminate the vast number of mistakes they make on both sides of the ball. The number of players they have on the defeats leaders list would seem to support that idea.

"eliminating mistakes" is a pretty specious idea. Players and coaches focus on the idea because it's something they can improve on, from their perspective. But as far as analysis, talking about "eliminating mistakes" is completely meaningless.

You are right to think Buffalo has had a defense good enough to contend in recent years (look at their recent DVOAs, this isn't an opinion, it's pretty much fact). But even without much player turnover, they did not have a top D last year (they weren't particularly unlucky injury-wise either IIRC).

I call B.S. on your comment about mistakes. The Bills were 26th in defensive DVOA in 2016 (+8%), they also stunk in terms of traditional stats and the eye test; It all agrees, they were bad. What makes the Bill's defensive year fascinating is not that they stunk but how they stunk; They were pretty good on 3rd/4th down, and had a middling number of takeaways, and were above their DVOA ranking in 1st downs/play. The obvious outlier; "big plays", the Bill's gave up 77 rushes over 10 yards (notably the worst in the league), had the highest number of "big plays" allowed, and the highest percentage of plays that were "big plays" (based on sporting charts definition). The eye test tells you that the Bills were awful at run-fits despite having some good talent up front, and that their lack of discipline as a front probably created their "defeats" in both the running and passing game. You want to blame Rex Ryan for that, sure, I guess I can go along with that, though it sure looked like some stupid football players had something to do with it too.

I think there's plenty of blame to go around to both the players and the coaches. Rex has always preferred front-seven players who are aggressive to the point of recklessness. And he and Rob both love to dial up weird blitzes and shifting fronts, gaps be damned. Discipline has never really been the most important component of a Rex Ryan defense, both in terms of preferred players and in terms of scheme. When he's got the personnel for it, like in Baltimore and early on in NY, no defense is more fun to watch IMO. When he doesn't, it's a huge mess.

The Ryan defenses in the early NY years were very disciplined, particularly in their run fits. However, while perhaps schematically creative, Ryan is not very disciplined or detail oriented himself. So he is a liability as a coach without assistant coaches who are. During the good, early years in NY he had Mike Pettine. The Jets defense declined significantly when Pettine left. He's a guy that I think deserves another chance in the league.

Interesting that Wilkerson is on this list even though everyone in New York thinks he had a 'terrible' year. Also interesting that Calvin Pryor made the list as well. Good luck to him in Cleveland, and god, I wish my team wasn't so foolish.

I felt he was good in 2015; he doesn't produce a lot of turnovers, but his hits produce incompletions, hence defeats. He probably needs to be a box safety, and not a deep free safety. He also was relatively inexpensive and probably a better player than Demario Davis, who they got for him. Now the Jets are going to start two rookies at safety. I like Jamal Adams a lot (he already looks good), but we'll see if Mayes can even stay on the field at this point.