Poll shows dip in support for Labor

Updated
June 17, 2013 08:53:00

Eighty-nine days out from the federal election, and the latest Nielsen opinion poll has shown that Labor's primary vote again has dipped. Its support is now at 29 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, the Government trails the Coalition 43 to 57 per cent, and it seems the re-emergence of the gender debate has been a turn-off for men, with Labor's support among males dropping by 7 points in one month.

TONY EASTLEY: Eighty-nine days out from the federal election and the latest Nielsen opinion poll has shown that Labor's primary vote again, has dipped.

Its support is now at 29 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, the Government trails the coalition 43 to 57 per cent.

And it seems the re-emergence of the gender debate has been a turn-off for men, with Labor's support among males dropping by seven points in one month.

Nielsen's research director is John Stirton. He's spoken to our chief political correspondent, Sabra Lane.

JOHN STIRTON: We're seeing a 7 per cent swing against Labor, which is fairly consistent with the polling we've seen for the last four months or so since the beginning of February. But, a 7 per cent swing nationwide would see the Coalition gaining about 25-26 seats, Labor losing roughly the same, and that would give the Coalition a big majority in the Parliament.

SABRA LANE: The primary vote has dipped into the 20s again for Labor, but you've also noticed a significant shift in a particular demographic here. What have you noticed?

JOHN STIRTON: Well it's interesting, and it's something I haven't really seen before, is that one gender has broken against Labor quite dramatically. We've got Labor's primary vote down seven amongst men, but up one amongst women.

We've got Labor's two party preferred vote down 10 amongst men, up two amongst women, and approval of Julia Gillard down eight amongst men, and steady amongst women.

So, I'm assuming the events of last week have something to do with that, the various gender speeches and accusations of misogyny and menus and all that sort of thing, have played out, it would appear, negatively among men.

SABRA LANE: You've also asked voters if they would change their vote if Kevin Rudd was Labor's leader. What was the result there?

JOHN STIRTON: The result was that it would add seven points to Labor's two-party preferred result, which would bring the parties even at 50-50, so that's a possible hung parliament under Kevin Rudd.

But, I'm calling that the magical scenario and a best case for Labor, because it assumes that any transition to Rudd would be perfectly smooth. It assumes that the party would then unite behind him and it assumes that he would have a honeymoon though to election day, and I think all three assumptions are quite optimistic.

I think there's no doubt that Kevin Rudd is more popular than Julia Gillard, and that's nothing new. We've been finding that for a couple of years, and so Kevin Rudd would probably do better, but I doubt he would do as well as these hypothetical polls that we've been doing.

SABRA LANE: You say you doubt that. People do know the difference when they're talking to a pollster and when they're actually voting on election day?

JOHN STIRTON: Well I think it's more that people, if there really was a change, people would be exposed to I guess to Labor's dirty laundry yet again as they go through that process, and I think that would have an impact on how people vote.

SABRA LANE: Most of the figures that you've talked about this morning are within the margin of error except for one noticeable batch.

JOHN STIRTON: Yeah, well all of the top line figures and the changes there in this poll are all within the margin of error, but the changes amongst men are statistically significant. So, real changes amongst men we've seen over the last month, and so that's particularly interesting.

SABRA LANE: You'll do that breakdown again next month to see if the trend is continuing?

JOHN STIRTON: Well we do that breakdown every month and usually it doesn't show terribly much, and we'll of course do it again next month.

Sometimes these gender differences appear and disappear, but this is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, gender difference that I can recall seeing.