Josh Samman $1.27 vs Kevin Casey $3.88
For lack of a better way of looking at this fight I think it is being set up as a squash match. Samman is young and talented, Casey is older, one-dimensional, and is coming off of a poor final TUF performance that goes against everything Dana believes in as far as TUF determining if a competitor actually wants to be a fighter or not. If Casey can get on top of Josh then he might have a shot, but even then he needs to finish him. His cardio/ heart are major question marks and handling the much bigger and more athletic opponent will take its toll on ‘King’. Samman’s grappling, especially defensively, needs work and that is something he quite possibly could have addressed since the show. We will find that out together. The one thing we do know about Samman is that he has tools and is the type of fighter that is still developing and getting better, Casey is not. Samman doesn’t offer a whole lot but I still intend to use him on the parlays because I am confident that he takes this one. I will also shop around to see what the Over/Under option is on this fight. There is a good chance it comes in at 1.5 rounds, which is still a playable option at the right price, but I would feel a little more comfortable having that extra round to hit the under.

Travis Browne to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- The odds aren’t posted yet, but I would expect it will be somewhere around the $2.00 mark, maybe slightly below. Gabe has been knocked out 5 times in his career and Browne has the power and capability to make it a sixth.

Miller- cutting to 145 seems to be a little tough, doesn’t use his length effectively in striking exchanges, relies on opponent to take the fight to the ground (0.55 TDpF), takes a lot of damage (4.27 SApM)

The key to this bout is going to be the grappling exchanges or lack thereof. In 4 of Bartimus’s last 5 defeats he has struggled to remain vertical with his opponent’s landing 13 of 29 takedowns attempts, while only suffering 1 in his last 5 wins. Cole Miller isn’t known for his wrestling skills averaging well under 1 takedown per fight completing just 25% of his attempts. He is a talented ground fighter, but relies heavily on his opponent’s to initiate the ground exchanges, unfortunately for him Palaszewski averages just 0.67 takedowns per fight and has only attempted 1 takedown in his last 6 bouts. This will put the onus solely on Miller to get the fight to the ground and Bart has proven tough to takedown when not faced with a strong wrestler (55% TDD). On the feet, both guys absorbed a high level of damage with their opponents landing over 4 strikes per minute, but the difference is going to be the power of Palaszewski. Nam Phan had success getting inside and landing on Miller, clearly hurting him on a couple of occasion. Bart isn’t as technical as Phan, but his 17 wins by knockout are evidence of his power. Cole’s striking is serviceable, but if Bart is able to land consistently he will do some serious damage and back him off. Miller has been knocked out twice in his UFC career and 5 of Bart’s last 7 wins have come by some form of knockout so my prediction is Bart Palaszewski to defeat Cole Miller by TKO.