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The Flirt

First former Sen. John E. Sununu said he wouldn’t run a third time against Shaheen. Later, his younger brother, Chris Sununu, a member of the state Executive Council, said no. Former Congressman Frank Guinta passed on the Senate race and wanted to win his old House seat back instead. University of New Hampshire business school dean Dan Innis said he would challenge Guinta in a primary instead of trying for the Senate seat.

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All of this was just noise, since everyone knew that former Congressman Jeb Bradley, a moderate Republican who’s now the state Senate majority leader, was going to challenge Shaheen. By July, the likely candidates were Bradley and a former state senator named Jim Rubens, both moderates.

The race needed a conservative, I figured. So I flipped over a sheet of paper on my desk and listed 50 conservatives who were either up-and-comers or old-timers. One of the old-timers was former Sen. Bob Smith, whom I called up on his cell while he was summering in New Hampshire’s Lakes Region. Smith chuckled at my question about whether he ever thought about running for his old seat. About 45 minutes later I realized there was something else I wanted to ask him and he said that he was glad I called back. He thought about it and wanted to float his name and see what kind of reaction he’d get.

By September, only Rubens had officially entered the race, and he was a guy who had dropped out of college to join a commune and now supported a carbon tax, a tough sell to a Republican base. Republicans had nothing.

Yet there was Brown, still floating out there. In April he was a carpetbagger, and one prominent local Republican strategist called his flirtations “offensive.” Now, he’s the party’s best hope against Shaheen, who as of October had a solid approval rating of 57 percent and $2.8 million in cash on hand, decent for a small state.

The only conservative Republican officially in the race is Bob Smith—he changed his mind last month and announced he would move back from Florida to run for his old seat. But Smith burned every political bridge before leaving New Hampshire in 2002, briefly switching parties in a quixotic bid for president before losing his seat in a primary challenge to then-Rep. John Sununu. He even endorsed John Kerry over George W. Bush for president in 2004. Smith may have some fading name recognition, but he has no real base here and no ability to raise money.

Brown, on the other hand, can raise buckets of cash and has proven adept at winning, even in Massachusetts, much less friendly ground for a Republican. No one counts him out—not even the Democrats. Shaheen has sent out 29 separate fundraising e-mails since April using Brown as a foil, and the New Hampshire Democratic apparatus follows every Brown tidbit as closely as Republicans do. They seem to be salivating for a fight.

“The people who know him best learned quickly that Scott Brown’s only priority is Scott Brown,” says state Democratic Party spokesman Harrell Kirstein. “And if he runs for Senate or president, New Hampshire voters will rapidly reach the same conclusion.”

Even if Kirstein is right, though, losing to Shaheen might be better for Brown’s political and professional future at this point than not running at all. And certainly, lots of New Hampshire Republicans are desperate for a champion. Last week, state GOP chairwoman Jennifer Horn all but pleaded with Brown to get into the race, telling a radio station that Republicans in the state “embrace primaries” and that Brown had a “very strong opportunity” to take on Shaheen. Said Horn: “He’s been welcomed up here very warmly.”

If he ultimately decides not to run, Scott Brown is going to break a lot of hearts.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article had the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair's name as Jim Moran. It is Jerry Moran.

James Pindell is a reporter and analyst for WMUR-TV and a columnist for NH Magazine.