Jon Swaine is the Daily Telegraph's New York correspondent. He was a
member of the MPs' expenses reporting team.

Gordon Brown must be ousted, and quickly

Full coverage of UK PoliticsOne year and a lost Henley deposit on, it's quite clear that Labour is doomed to defeat in 2010 if they are still being led by Gordon Brown. As Anthony King writes in this morning's paper, 71 per cent of people agree that "It's almost tragic: Gordon Brown so much wanted to be Prime Minister and now it seems he is not up to the job." This is terminal.

Gordon Brown: now an 'almost tragic' figure?

As Polly Toynbee, the party's favourite columnist, reminds us this morning, if an election were held tomorrow, "more Labour MPs would fall than would survive", and cabinet ministers Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, Jacqui Smith, Ed Balls, John Hutton, Ruth Kelly and John Denham would all be among those seeking alternative employment the following morning. It's already near-bankrupt – such a wipeout could simply destroy the Labour Party.

This bleak picture begs one simple question: what on earth are they waiting for? Brown needs to be replaced. The reasons given for holding fire are frankly pathetic. The most common is that the electorate will not take seriously a party that changes leader twice in one parliament. But as Anthony Wells's poll of polls graph shows, the Lib Dems at least stabilised their tumbling ratings by ejecting Menzies Campbell at the end of 2007. And how much worse do Labour MPs think it could get?

The second reason, repeated by Toynbee, is that "since most would-be assassins are Blairites," they are hesitant to strike lest Brownites get defensive and the party is split. Are they insane? Do they think the average voter even knows what the difference is between a Blairite and a Brownite, still less actually care? And why start worrying now about this split's blight on New Labour's ability to govern, when it has known little else since 1997?

The third is that, scared by conventional wisdom, no feasible alternative (read: David Miliband) will dare wield the knife for fear of losing the crown. So why doesn't an unfeasible alternative, fearing for their ministry (John Denham, John Hutton) or their seat (Charles Clarke) or simply the future of their party, take the initiative and clear the way for someone else?

As long as they continue to hide behind these feeble excuses, New Labour will continue to edge closer to meltdown.