Warlord sees chaos after pullout

One of Afghanistan’s most feared and wanted warlords has warned that the country could collapse into a murderous civil war after the final withdrawal of NATO troops in 2014.

In the bleakest assessment yet of Afghanistan’s future, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar called for a “peaceful transition of the government” to democracy. But, in a wide-ranging interview painstakingly arranged with London’s Daily Telegraph newspaper, he said he feared a descent into chaos and anarchy similar to that which followed the withdrawal of the Russians from Afghanistan in the 1980s.

“Today the scenario of Afghanistan is exactly like that of one year before the withdrawal of Soviet Union,” warned Hekmatyar, also a veteran of that bloody war. “The Americans and their allies are tired of fighting. They can neither bear the casualties nor the expenses of this war any more. They are left with no other option except withdrawal.”

This brutally realistic analysis of the military situation will be sharply challenged by British Prime Minister David Cameron, who issued a sunnily optimistic message when he visited British troops just before Christmas.

Yet it cannot be ignored since it comes from one of just a handful of Afghan warlords who, through his Hezb-e-Islami political party, holds the key to peace in Afghanistan after coalition forces are due to withdraw in less than two years.

Hekmatyar has spent most of the past 11 years on the run. He is thought to have played a role in helping Osama bin Laden escape from the Tora Bora mountains after the fall of the Taliban in 2001. In 2003, he was designated a “global terrorist” by the U.S., and has been labelled a “war criminal” by President Hamid Karzai’s Afghan government in Kabul.

He has survived an assassination attempt by the CIA, and is believed to have masterminded some of the bloodiest attacks against American, British and Canadian forces over the past few years.

Today, his exact whereabouts is unknown, though he is believed to be based in the mountains of southeastern Afghanistan.

The Telegraph’s interview could not be carried out face-to-face. Instead, a series of questions were dispatched through an intermediary, and the answers, recorded on video, were returned within three weeks. The video shows that Hekmatyar, a veteran of 40 years of Afghan warfare and intrigue, now sports a white beard, though he retains his trademark black turban.

He gave answers to all of the questions sent to him. When asked what he believes will follow when combat troops pull out in 2014 his answer was both terrifying and encouraging:

“The fact is that the government has failed. The authorities have lost their credibility completely,” he said. ““They have fallen victims to severe internal disputes and seem hopeless and worried. The foreign forces have failed and the situation is worsening by the day. We might face a dreadful situation after 2014 which no one could have anticipated.”

But, interestingly, this dire assessment was accompanied by warm language about the democratic future of Afghanistan.

Indeed, Hekmatyar sounded more like a United Nations election observer than a feared warlord who as prime minister of Afghanistan in the 1980s was responsible for the murderous shelling of Kabul.

He called for a “peaceful transition of the government” and demanded a “free and fair election,” saying that the winner of a majority of the votes should “be accepted by all”.

He added that his Hezb-e-Islami party was ready to take part in the 2014 presidential elections, though he set out two conditions: “complete withdrawal of all foreign forces and elections in which all parties are equally represented.”

He added: “If these conditions are accepted, then we are ready to take part in the election.”

Hekmatyar has dropped a great deal of the fanatical Islamist language for which he was notorious as a young leader. There were no calls for jihad against godless infidels. Rather, he presented himself as a leader of the national resistance against foreign oppressors.

When asked whether he supported the Pakistan Taliban strategy of blocking girls’ education, Hekmatyar was outraged: “We are against the blowing up of schools and other institutions not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but elsewhere in the world.”

Hekmatyar denied any links with the Pakistan Taliban, and accused foreign intelligence agencies of being involved in attacks on schools and other atrocities. He insisted that Hezb-e-Islami “considers education is as necessary for girls as it is for boys ... we don’t discriminate in this regard. The only thing that we are against is boys and girls being taught together. We think that is harmful from any perspective.”

He mocked the Afghan National Army, upon which coalition hopes depend for a peaceful future, declaring that “it is not a national army. It is made by the hands of others ... the soldiers of Northern Alliance have worn American uniform. The basic aim behind the making of this army was to use it against freedom fighters and freedom seekers.”