Are Gagner and Gilbert weak defensively or just unlucky?

What do we make of it when the team has a low save percentage when a player is on the ice?

If you look at the high number of times that Tom Gilbert has made some mistake that has contributed to a goal against the Edmonton Oilers this year, you might well conclude that Gilbert hasn’t been a strong defender.

And, to some extent, you would be right.

Gilbert has made 27 goal-causing mistakes this year, more than any other Oiler. But if you dig a bit deeper, you’ll see that Gilbert has likely also been the victim of some bad luck, in that Oiler goalies haven’t performed well when he’s on the ice.

The team’s save percentage when Gilbert is out there is just .878, well below the even strength save percentage of either Devan Dubnyk, .923, or Nikolai Khabibulin, .908.

What does this low save percentage mean in regards to Gilbert? Does it mean he’s been out when some horrendous goaltending has been on display?

First off, we can all agree that when a goalie has a low save percentage, we all believe he’s not doing his job. That’s pretty much accepted these days.

But what about when the save percentage is low when a regular player is out there? He’s just one of 10 players on the ice, of course. So can he really have much impact on that number, for good or for ill?

Let’s look at the possibilities. . . .

The low .878 save percentage could mean that when Gilbert is on the ice, he makes a great number of horrid mistakes that lead to a high number of high percentage scoring chances, hard shots right in the slot. Opposing players are simply able to consistently work themselves that much closer for their shots because of some mistake Gilbert is making. That would help drop that save percentage, would it not?

Or it could mean that Gilbert is out with other players who make more high impact, high percentage mistakes, and that would drop the save percentage. Or maybe Gilbert is out against efficient opponents who are able to score on a higher percentage of their shots.

Finally, it could be that Oilers goalies are just making more mistakes when Gilbert is on the ice, and the low save percentage is their fault and has not so much to do with Gilbert or his teammates at all.Instead of the goalies covering up for Gilbert’s blunders, they let in weak goals, and that explains his high number of goal-causing errors.

Of course, all these factors might well be at play. Nonetheless, I want to take a closer look at that last possibility.

I don’t keep track of the number of great saves that Dubnyk and Khabibulin make. However, I do keep track of how often a goalie makes some mistake — such as a turnover, a bad rebound or blowing a saveable shot — on each goal against. I also track who else was on the ice and also made mistakes on those goals against.

After the first 46 games of the year, Gilbert had been on the ice for 51 goals against and he had personally made some mistake of 27 of those goals against, according to my observations.

At the same time, goalies have made mistakes on 10 of the goals on which Gilbert has also made a mistake and been assigned an error. So the goalie is erring on 37 per cent of Gilbert’s error plays. The average for Oilers d-men is that goalies have made mistakes on just 29 per cent of their error plays. Gilbert is somewhat above that.

The goalies have made mistakes on just five of Ladi Smid’s 20 errors, three of Ryan Whitney’s 13 errors and one of Jason Strudwick’s eight errors.

So maybe Gilbert’s been a bit unlucky when it comes to goalies making bad mistakes, and that has slightly inflated his error totals. Meanwhile, Strudwick hasn’t had the goalies blow just one chance when he’s on the ice, so maybe he’s been lucky and spared from having a higher number of errors.

The same can’t be said for Sam Gagner, the forward who has made the most goal-causing errors. The team’s save percentage is also low when Gagner is on the ice at even strength, just .872. But goalies have made mistakes on just 28 per cent of the goals against where Gagner also was assigned a defensive error. The average for the centre position is 31.5 per cent. So Gagner appears to have been a little more lucky than average when it comes to Oiler goalies bailing him out.

This might well suggest that the low save percentage when Gagner is on the ice is driven by a higher number of high impact mistakes made by players other than the goalie. It could well be that Gagner himself is responsible for those extra high percentage shots.

Whether or not this trend of low shooting percentage/high errors will continue for Gagner through the season, I don’t know.

I should say that when it comes to figuring out what it says about a player if the team’s defensive save percentage is low when he’s on the ice, I’m still uncertain.

I may well have misinterpreted what’s going on here. This line of thinking is somewhat new to me. Perhaps some of you will look at the data and come to more valid conclusions.

I might add, though, that if you look at Gagner and Gilbert, Gilbert was about average on the team for a d-man when it comes to making defensive errors that lead to scoring chances against. He’s just not leaker more chances than his fellow blueliners. Gagner, however, made more mistakes on scoring chances than any other Oilers forward. This might lend some credence to the notion that Gilbert has been unlucky in getting so many errors, while Gagner hasn’t been unlucky at all, he’s just been weak defensively.

There’s a chartwith this story that gives all the scoring chance totals and ratios.

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