Meanwhile, Kasman's colleagues,
JPMorgan economistsMichael Feroli, Daniel Silver,
Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman,think there is a
three-in-four chance that there will be a recession in the next
three years.

But the JPMorgan note serves as a nice end-of-year roundup
for the team's views, spanning global growth, emerging-market
conditions, and the US economy.

Here is the key bit of the note (emphasis ours):

Our models suggest that US recession risks over a two- to
three-year horizon have increased materially as a result of weak
supply-side performance. US expansions don’t die of old
age, but an environment of tight labor markets amid weak
productivity gains and limited global pricing power signals that
the expansion is becoming more vulnerable.

The general tone from the rest of the note is to expect
increased volatility through 2016, as central banks head in
different directions.

One of the team's core views is that the growth gap between
emerging markets and developed markets will close, with advanced
economies benefiting from accommodative monetary policy and
emerging markets suffering from a deleveraging cycle. That, they
say, has the potential to be "disruptive."

The note said (emphasis ours):

Persistent wide business cycle divergences threaten
financial instability in the global economy’s weak links that
could prove disruptive. However, we believe the most
likely 2016 outcome is one where the global expansion moves
forward in the face of pockets of stress. EM weakness
will weigh on the global expansion, but the resilience of the US
and Western Europe, combined with policy support in China, makes
it likely that growth will remain bounded close to our 2.6%
estimate of global potential growth in 2016.

The strategists add that they expect growth in China to
stabilize, but that emerging-market economies in Latin America,
Russia, and South Africa will still suffer from the
slowdown.The note said (emphasis ours):

A significant credit tightening is expected in these EM
economies, and risks are high that there will be a
disruptive but localized credit event next year. We
downplay the threat that a localized event broadens, partly
because the US Fed is likely to remain highly sensitive to global
financial market developments and also reflecting our assumptions
about the course of policy in China. While our forecast
incorporates four US rate hikes next year, the risk that global
financial market volatility slows the Fed’s path is
high.