GOP STAKING CLAIMS TO GOVERNORSHIPS

It could be that Republicans are ready to shed their minority status in the state capitols.

With the lineups for the 1985 governorship contests completed last week and the outlines of the 1986 races beginning to become clear, it is possible to see how the Republicans could come out of the 1985-86 cycle with a majority of the governorships for the first time since 1970.

The risk of a recession and some uncertainties in the candidate picture cloud the current bright GOP prospects. But right now there are few knowledgeable politicians who would dispute the judgment of Michelle Davis, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, that the opportunities for Republican gains "look almost too good to be true."

Democrats hold 34 of the 50 governorships today and have a hammerlock on state legislatures as well. So long as that control continues, Democrats will have the upper hand in drawing the lines for U.S. House districts, and Republican chances of gaining a House majority will remain poor.

Moreover, with President Reagan's budgetary and tax policies shifting more and more domestic policy authority to the states, continued Democratic dominance of the state capitols will mock talk of a real "Reagan revolution" in American government.

All these factors give added importance to the elections for governors that start this November in New Jersey and Virginia and continue in 1986 in 36 more states. Only six governors in each party have terms extending beyond 1986.

Part of the Democratic problem lies in the numbers. Among the 28 Democratic governors whose terms are expiring in 1985-86, 12 are definite retirees (mainly because of constitutional term limitations) and five others are considering stepping down or running for other office.

Among those missing will be phenomenal Democratic vote-getters in states that are historically Republican or are trending in that direction: Bob Graham of Florida, George Nigh of Oklahoma, John Carlin of Kansas, Dick Lamm of Colorado and Bruce Babbitt of Arizona, for example.

In such states as Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Maryland and South Carolina, stronger-than-usual Republican challenges are expected because the two-term or longer Democratic governors have reached the end of their tenure.

In some, but not all, of the retirees' states, there are strong Democratic replacements available. But in general, the Republicans are looking better in the battle to replace retiring incumbents.

The two races this fall are likely to demonstrate the importance of incumbency. New Jersey Democrats last week nominated 33-year-old Essex County executive Peter Shapiro, a bright hope for the party's future, as their candidate for governor. But Republican Gov. Thomas Kean's approval ratings dwarf even those Reagan receives in the state.

In Virginia, Gov. Charles Robb has been virtually the only Democrat to win the top office in 20 years. Now he must step down at the end of one term. The party's standard-bearer this year, Gerald Baliles, defeated his GOP gubernatorial opponent, Wyatt Durrette, four years ago for attorney general. But Republicans clearly have a better chance against Baliles than they would have had against Robb.

The best Republican chances are spread all across the map. In Connecticut, where Democratic Gov. William O'Neill faces a possibly serious primary fight. In Ohio, Democratic Gov. Richard Celeste has been weakened by the savings-and- loan crisis. In Oklahoma, Republican Henry Bellmon, a former governor and senator, is primed for a comeback.