Marine Weather and TidesIlwaco, WA

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AM

Sunset 5:51PM

Friday February 22, 2019 4:15 AM PST (12:15 UTC)

Moonrise 10:02PM

Moonset 9:07AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 242 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019 .small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 9 am pst this morning....small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from this afternoon through this evening....small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from late tonight through Saturday morning... In the main channel.. - general seas...7 feet through Friday night. - first ebb...strong. Around 645 am Friday. Seas near 11 feet with breakers possible. - second ebb...strong. Around 7 pm Friday. Seas near 10 feet with breakers possible. - third ebb...strong. Around 730 am Saturday. Seas near 11 feet with breakers likely.

PZZ200 242 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019 Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A quick moving and narrow frontal system will drop southward across the waters and result in a brief period of gusty winds today. A weak low pressure will then drift southward across the waters Saturday night and Sunday with few impacts.

Synopsis High pressure over the area will shift southeast
tonight. The next weather system will drop south along the british
columbia coast late tonight and Friday. This system will spread
valley rain and mountain snow across the forecast area Friday. An
associated cold front will likely stall over west-central oregon
Friday night and Saturday. A surface low is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary Saturday night, which will reinforce the
existing frontal zone. This zone will resemble an atmospheric river,
potentially bringing significant rain and mountain snow to at least
some portion of northwest oregon Saturday night through Sunday
morning. At this time, the exact position of the frontal boundary
remains highly uncertain, but currently appears to be roughly
positioned over salem from southwest to northeast. North of the
frontal zone, there is potential for low elevation snow during this
time as well. The threat of low-elevation snow continues into early
next week.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... A couple of minor changes
to the forecast package covering tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Have warmed up tonight's low temperatures 1-2 degrees as the
invading cirrus appear to be buffering the radiational cooling
across the northern tier ever so slightly. Also decided to add some
patchy fog to the coast and adjoining coastal valleys as slightly
higher dew points are now reachable for what cooling is taking place.

Otherwise, no significant changes from the 00z runs of the NAM and
the gfs. Still appears that the primary precipitation shield will
cross the SW washington coastline near 15z (7 am) and the northern i-
5 corridor not until 18-20z (10 am-noon) when temperatures are
warmer. Still cannot completely rule out some stray low elevation
snowflakes in the air after daybreak but still do not feel these
will amount to much, if anything at all. Additionally, the 00z runs
of nam12 and GFS are showing a bit of the expected wobble drift with
regard to the position of the quasi-atmospheric river potentially
setting up somewhere over the area Saturday night and Sunday. The
nam is pushing the northern edge of the moderate precip a bit
further north to between salem and aurora, while the GFS is drifting
a bit further south to between salem and eugene. In contrast, the
00z canadian model keeps moderate rates well south and centered
south of the or ca border. And, it will be a few more hours before
we receive the comparable ECMWF run. As always under these
scenarios, we do not expect the fine details to be ironed out in the
weather models until just before the event arrives. Stay tuned folks.

Jbonk
previous short term discussion follows: the brief weather lull
continues tonight. Mid and high clouds will increase from the
northwest late tonight ahead of the next weather system. Water vapor
imagery early this afternoon showed this short-wave in the gulf of
alaska. Meanwhile, a deep, cold upper level trough was centered over
the great basin and desert southwest. The leading edge of the short-
wave is expected to reach SW washington around 12z fri. The 12z
models are in general agreement showing light QPF reaching sw
washington and the far N oregon coast between 12z and 15z Fri and
then spreading to clark county and the pdx metro area around 18z.

The initial precip could be a mix down to the valley floors fri
morning, especially in the SW washington lowlands and also n
willamette valley. Confidence is low for that scenario as models
agree precip will not occur until late morning, at the earliest.

The front will move quickly southeast, spreading precipitation across
much of SW washington by midday Friday and then northwest oregon in
the afternoon and evening. Expected QPF amounts would suggest snow
advisory amounts in the south washington cascades, mainly Friday
afternoon through early Sat morning. Will go with a winter weather
advisory for this potential. The south washington cascade foothills
will get close to advisory, but did not include that zone in the
highlight as snow levels should rise enough Friday afternoon and
evening to limit significant impacts. South to southwest surface
gradients strengthen Fri afternoon, which will lift snow levels to
1000 to 1500 ft in the north to 2000 feet in the southern interior
valleys.

Latest guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere
over west-central or southwestern oregon late Friday and Saturday
morning. Models then suggest the stalled frontal boundary begins to
interact with the subtropical branch of the jet stream Sat afternoon.

The exact location of this stalled boundary will have major
implications on the weekend forecast. The operational ecmwf, GFS and
nam all hint at some form of atmospheric river developing over sw
oregon Sat evening. Models vary on the placement of this enhanced
precip zone, but the NAM and GFS favor a florence to mt. Jefferson
line 12z sun. The ECMWF is much more south and has the heaviest qpf
confined to the south oregon and far north california coast. Will
trend the forecast toward the NAM gfs. These models paint 1 to 1.25
inch 6 hr QPF amounts along the baroclinic zone. Snow levels will
rise in the lane county cascades Sat night and sun, but remain well
below pass level. The colder air will be north of the baroclinic

boundary, but expected QPF should be less.

In addition, models suggest a surface low will develop along the
frontal boundary Sat night. The GFS indicates the low near florence
09z sun. The NAM is similar. The ECMWF has a hint of a low, but
closer to north bend or gold beach. Should the NAM or GFS verify,
there would be some degree of offshore low-level flow through the
gorge, resulting in the potential for snow near the valley floors
north of the surface low. If the baroclinic boundary ends up slightly
more north, it could result in significant snow for the cascade
foothills and columbia gorge and upper hood river valley. There is
plenty of uncertainty from Sat night through early mon. Thus, am not
inclined to issue any highlights at this time, other than the winter
storm watch for the oregon cascades. Weishaar

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... The forecast for next
week remains complicated due to significant model differences so, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, will continue to use a blend
of models rather than a single deterministic model. The general trend
is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next
week, with a threat of low elevation snow, generally north of salem,
early next week. As of now, suspect that we will probably see a mix
of rain and snow at the lowest elevations, but would not be
surprised if areas below 1000 ft wake up to snow Monday morning.

Confidence in the forecast is even lower as we go through the week,
but if today's 12z ECMWF run verifies we could see the return of
warmer and sunnier weather towards the middle of next week. 64

Aviation An incoming front will result in ceilings lowering
from northwest to southeast across the area on Friday. Expect a
2-4 hour period of MVFR conditions as a band of moderate rain
drops southeastward across the area. Once the front pushes
through any given site, expect conditions to return to
predominantlyVFR conditions as the lower atmosphere
destabilizes.

Kpdx and approaches... An incoming front will result in lowering
ceilings, likely into MVFR thresholds and a band of moderate
rain moving over the terminal towards 21z Friday to 00z Saturday.

Thereafter, the atmosphere should destabilize with a transition
back towards predominantlyVFR conditions through 06z Saturday.

Neuman

Marine Seas should continue to drop overnight and should be
solidly below 10 ft for several hours late tonight and during the
first half of Friday. However, a cold front will drop southeastward
across the waters on Friday, which will result in increasing
southwesterly winds ahead of it across the waters. This should
bring small craft advisory level wind gusts of 25 kt to the
northern waters Friday morning into at least the early afternoon.

The front will be weakening as it moves southward, but should
still be strong enough to produce a period of gusty winds in the
central oregon waters late Friday morning through Friday
afternoon. Seas should respond accordingly and climb back up
towards 10 ft late Friday. Winds should then be rather quiet
across the waters over the weekend. This trend appears likely to
continue into early next week, but there is an outside chance a
strengthening low pressure system currently projected to move
into the southern oregon coast, could move farther north and
bring a surge in southerly winds to the south of its track late
Sunday night into Monday. Another weak low pressure may drop
southward out of british columbia during the middle of next week,
which could result in a multi-day stretch of easterly winds
across the waters later next week. Neuman

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of PacificNorthwestEDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)

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