Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Winter Meetings.

Every year, we look forward to a winter meetings event filled with big trades and surprising free agent signings – and every year, it turns out to be a dud.This year has been no exception so far, although things usually start moving a little in the last 24 hours.

One player we hope will not be moving is Zack Greinke.Here’s how things have changed under Dayton Moore: when I first heard the rumor that Moore was talking to the Braves about a Greinke-Francoeur swap, I didn’t even bat an eye.I had no doubt that this rumor was grossly mischaracterized at best, and more likely just an outright fabrication.I do not always agree with Moore, but he and I agree on one thing: he is not an idiot.

The best part of the rumor was the fact that Moore actively sought out more than one reporter to debunk the rumor.Moore likes to run a tight ship when it comes to rumors, but he also can’t help himself when it comes to shooting down rumors that are false (or rumors that he wants everyone to believe are false.)The downside to that is that when he doesn’t deny a rumor, you know there’s some fire with that smoke.(You’ll notice the lack of denials regarding the Royals’ interest in Rafael Furcal, for instance.)

But in this case, I think Moore was justified to speak out, and speak out forcefully, that there was nothing to the notion of trading Greinke for Francoeur.It was as if Moore wanted to send a message to all Royals fans that can be translated as, “I just wanted to reassure all of you that not only am I not stupid enough to trade Zack Greinke for Jeff Francoeur, I’m not stupid enough to even think about trading Zack Greinke for Jeff Francoeur.Thank you for your support.”

But at some point the Royals are going to do something, so let me try to run down the likely possibilities as I battle through this nagging cold.There are two types of moves the Royals are looking at: they almost certainly will add a reliever or two to their bullpen, and they might open the vault for a big addition either in the lineup or in the rotation.

We know they’re looking at relievers right and left – well, mostly right, as I think Moore is satisfied for now with Ron Mahay, John Bale, and Jimmy Gobble from the left side.(Assuming that Gobble fixes whatever ailed him last season, that’s a reasonable complement of left-handed relievers.)Some quick thoughts on the guys who have been publicly linked to the Royals:

Kyle Farnsworth: His name has come up several times as someone the Royals are strongly pursuing.I don’t see it.Farnsworth throws really hard, and as a 25-year-old setup man for the Cubs, he struck out 107 batters in 82 innings, with a 2.74 ERA.The problem is, now he’s 32 years old.He signed a three-year deal with the Yankees before the 2006 season, and over the last three years his ERAs are 4.36, 4.80, and 4.48.As much as I appreciate his service on behalf of Yankee-haters everywhere, I’m not sure his mediocrity was intentional, especially since he had a 6.75 ERA last season after the Yankees foisted him on Detroit.

Farnsworth still strikes out about a man an inning, and walks about a man every third inning – that’s something to build on.But he’s way too prone to the long ball.Kauffman Stadium will help some, and maybe Bob McClure will help some, although Farnsworth isn’t exactly famous for his coachability.If the Royals are looking at a 1-year, $2 million deal or something, he’s a nice flyer to take.But he’s coming off a 3-year, $17 million contract, and is probably looking for something comparable.The danger is that the Royals pay a 32-year-old pitcher based on his potential, not on his reality.

Brandon Lyon: Lyon’s coming off a disappointing year with the Diamondbacks, but I like his overall track record more than Farnsworth.Lyon isn’t the power pitcher that Farnsworth is, but he has better command and is stinger with the long ball, especially when you factor in Arizona’s ballpark.He’s coming off a 26-save season and may want closer money even though he gave nothing like closer performance last year.Farnsworth has more upside, Lyon’s the safer bet, and I wouldn’t sign either for Mahay money.

Russ Springer: Two years ago, Springer was a 38-year-old pitcher who had never had an ERA lower than 3.42 in a season with 15 innings or more.Over the last two years, he has ERAs of 2.18 and 2.32, and merely adds to the argument that Dave Duncan, not Leo Mazzone, is the best pitching coach of the last generation.I love McClure, but even I’m skeptical he can keep the magic going as Springer enters his 40s.Avoid.

Juan Cruz: Now here’s a guy I can get behind.Cruz has power (158 Ks in 113 IP the last two years) and effectiveness (2.61 ERA in 2008; 3.10 ERA in 2007.)He has one save in his major league career, so you don’t have to pay a premium for a service you don’t need.I can’t imagine that he’ll be any cheaper than the three guys listed above, but it’s better to spend good money on a good reliever than any money on a mediocre one.I’m confident that Moore can scrounge up a reliever from the ranks of free talent out there that can duplicate what Springer will do over the next year or two.Cruz, on the other hand, is not an easily duplicated talent.

26 comments:

What if we don't sign any of these guys? Our bullpen seemingly wouldn't be as good as last year, but how would you feel if, say, Carlos Rosa were the primary right-handed set-up guy, along with Mahay who is more than a lefty specialist?

Here's an idea for the bullpen that's possible but unlikely. The Mariners are gonna lose Ibanez and may trade Beltre so Teahen might be a good fit for them. What about Teahen and Calos Rosa for JJ Putz??? Putz in the 8th Soria in the 9th OR Putz as closer and Soria gets a shot in the rotation. Again, unlikely but an interesting possibility.

I like your stuff, but even using ERA rather than FIP, and multiplying by his pLI (as should be done for relievers), Ron Mahay didn't earn his money last year (assuming $4.4M oer WAR. 1 WAR = 10.5 RAR). When you use FIP, he was barely worth $1M. tRA-RAR is harder to figure, but I have him below replacement level...

I signing might have been OK at the time, don't get me wrong. But it hasn't worked out for the Royals so far.

By way of contrast, Ramon Ramirez was about a 2 WAR player in all the stats -- you know, what CoCo Crisp has a chance of being (although Ramirez will probably regress some).

Stats are great and usually tell the story of a player if you dig deep enough, but sometimes you just have to open your eyes and see what's going on. To say Mahay was a below replacement player is ridiculous. In your stat searching, did it classify righties and lefties? How many lefty relievers had a better year than Mahay? Not many, especially the first four months before he got hurt, and I definitely know that we couldn't plug in some average joe and get the same production (see Gobble).

Honestly, I'd say no even with Furcal. We still don't have the team power. Give us Furcal and Teixeira/Manny and I'd say we're legitimate playoff contenders. Obviously that's not going to happen, but I think that's the magnitude of player we'd need to be immediately competitive. I guess the hope is that Gordon or Butler will soon develop into that caliber of player.

My guess is that with Furcal we'd be 2008-Twins class competitors--not a team that can do it on paper, but we might slide in if things break right. I might add that's a lot closer than we've been in the last decade or so, and it's well worth pursuing. As previously noted, a break out campaign from Butler, Gordon, Davies, Hochevar, etc could be exactly the break it would take.

The 2010 Royals would also benefit from a Furcal signing. So, bring him on.

I like the Farnsworth signing. The guy is still in his low-30's, throws gas, has some swagger and will be a nice bridge to Soria. He is a local guy and is the proven righty we were looking for. When you consider the market for relievers this year, 2/$9 isn't all that bad. I think Awfuldt got more cash than that.

Back to Furcal, I hear we could sign him even if we don't trade Guillen. However, that would mean letting go of Buck, Teahen and German. I can't say I'd miss any of those guys.

There will be no market for Buck and German. However, I'll puke if they just CUT Teahen. Surely they can get SOMETHING for him. I hope Bradley/Ibanez/Abreu sign anywhere besides Chicago so the Cubs will come back with Marshall for Teahen.

These are our minor league picks: * Right-handed pitcher Luis Ortega, 21, pitched in the Dominican Summer League for the Washington Nationals two squads in 2008. * Catcher John Suomi, 28, split his 2008 season in the Phillies organization between Class AA Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. * Right-handed pitcher Carlos Arias, 23, spent 2008 at Class A Mahoning Valley in the Cleveland Indians organization.

"The Royals also picked up outfielder Jordan Parraz from the Astros as the player to be named in their earlier trade for lefthander Tyler Lumsden. Parraz hit .289 with six homers and 42 RBI for high-A Salem this year, and was rated by Baseball America as having the best outfield arm in the Houston organization. He stole 21 bases this year and has an impressive .370 on-base percentage over five minor league seasons, including .399 this year."

Seriously, I just have this feeling that Teahen, Guillen, Buck and German better not be buying any houses here.

I'm really trying hard to understand GMDM off season trades and FA signings from a statistic standpoint, and I don't see a significant upgrade that warrant the extra dollars. Instead of trading cheap relievers, he should have saved his wad for Adam Dunn. The only possible reason I can conceive why he is turning over the roster is for better morale, leadership and attitude in the clubhouse. Apparently, the 32 year old has matured some according to Buster (ESPN). Crisp is a fighter too. Don't know Jacob's rep well enough to comment.