The logistics of containing the oil spewing into the Gulf of Mexico are
mind-boggling even in ideal conditions. Add a tropical storm like the one swirling in the
Caribbean and things get even more complicated.

Any system with winds over 46 mph could force BP to abandon
efforts to contain the flow for up to two weeks and delay the drilling of two relief
wells that are the best hope of stopping it, Coast Guard AdmiralThad Allen said Saturday, shortly after Alex became the first
tropical storm of the Atlantic
hurricane season.

Forecasts
show Alex churning toward Mexico and missing the northern Gulf Coast and
the spill, but officials are watching closely anyway.

"We all know the weather is unpredictable and
we could have a sudden, last-minute change," Allen said.

Emergency plans call for moving workers and
equipment five days before gale-force winds are forecast to arrive at
the half-square mile containment operation surrounding the blown-out
well. Oil has been gushing since the offshore drilling rigDeepwater Horizon
exploded 50 miles off the coast of Louisiana on April 20, killing 11 workers.

Nearly 39,000 people and more than 6,000
boats are working there, in other parts of the Gulf and on land to skim
and corral the oil, protect hundreds of miles of coastline and clean
fouled beaches.
All of those efforts would have to be suspended if a storm threatened.

At the well, the two systems that have been
capturing anywhere from 840,000 to 1.2 million gallons of oil a day
would be unhooked, leaving oil to gush freely into the Gulf again. No
one knows exactly how much is flowing, but worst-case estimates indicate
it could be as much as 2.5 million gallons a day.

Work would also stop on the two relief wells
being drilled to take the pressure
off the blown-out well, considered the only permanent solution. The
first is on target for completion by mid-August, but there could be a
significant delay if people and ships come ashore to ride out a storm.

Despite the setback a suspension would
represent, "the safety of life is number one priority," Allen said.

Out in the Gulf, there is also concern about
the thousands of feet of protective boom ringing numerous islands and
beachfronts. Winds
and waves could hurl the material, much of it soaked with oil, deep
into marshes and woodlands.

"What boom they don't pick up — and there's
miles and miles of it, so there's no way they can pick it all up — will
end up back in the marsh," said Ivor van Heerden, former deputy director of
Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center.

Once a storm's expected direction is
determined, barges and crews plan to remove as much boom in its path as
possible, said Sam Phillips, solid waste permits administrator with the
Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality. The boom would be stored
on barges so it could be put back in place quickly.

"Obviously, it wouldn't withstand a
hurricane," Phillips said.

Workers probably would have enough time to
retrieve most of the exposed boom, he said.

"You can move a lot of boom in 48 hours, if
that were your sole endeavor," he said. "Can they get all of it?
Probably not."

The spill — and the prospect of a hurricane
whipping oily water into bayous and coastal communities — is also
complicating the already complex hurricane planning that takes place
each summer.

After all, this is a region that's no
stranger to big storms. In 2005, the devastating Hurricane Katrina was
followed immediately by Hurricane
Rita. Three years later, Hurricanes Gustav and Ivan hit
back-to-back.

BP, the Coast Guard and the state of Lousiana
have already been talking about how to coordinate evacuations so workers
and equipment involved in the oil spill response don't clog highway
escape routes.

Officials in coastal
St. Bernard Parish gave local agencies a deadline for outlining evacuation plans, said
parish spokeswoman Jennifer Belsom. She acknowledged uncertainties posed
by the spill could flummox even the best laid plans.

"There are all kinds of what ifs," she said.

Thousands of families that lost jobs due to the spill may have fewer
resources for a storm evacuation, said Mark Cooper, director of the Louisiana governor's Office of
Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.

Pete Gerica says fishermen like him who typically ride out storms in
their boats also might have second thoughts this year because of the
spill. Oily water carried by the storm surge could be difficult to clean.

"How would you clean it up?" he said. "You will have to clean up mud and
oil. Can you clean that out of the walls? Who knows."

It's also unclear what a storm would do to oil floating in the Gulf.

Some fear high winds and large waves could push it deeper into estuaries
and wetlands. A storm surge of several feet could bring it inland,
creating a mess. But a storm also could help disperse and break up some
of the oil.

No matter what happens with Tropical Storm Alex, it's likely just the
beginning. Forecasters are predicting a busy hurricane season with
powerful storms.

Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for forecasting service Weather
Underground, said spill responders may need to rethink their five-day
window for suspending containment efforts because storms often change
more quickly than that.

If they don't develop a more nuanced plan, he said, "it means they are
going to be having lots of false alarms where they are unnecessarily
taking down their operation or they are going to be putting lives at
risk, one or the other."