I lost some cash on this game, but enjoyed it nonetheless. There weren’t too many penalties, they got the catch rule right for once, it was well coached and for the most part well played. I was actually planning to watch the 40-minute version of it this morning, but took an afternoon nap and powered […]

I lost some cash on this game, but enjoyed it nonetheless. There weren’t too many penalties, they got the catch rule right for once, it was well coached and for the most part well played. I was actually planning to watch the 40-minute version of it this morning, but took an afternoon nap and powered through until 3:30 am in real time. I’m a little sluggish today, but I don’t regret it.

• There was so much offense this game didn’t just set the record for yards in a Super Bowl, but yards in a game. Let that settle in for a moment. There have been more than 5,000 games in the last 20 years alone.

• The Eagles won because they converted 10 of 16 third downs and both fourth downs. The Patriots defense could not get a stop or get off the field.

• Nick Foles picked up where he left off against the Vikings – pinpoint accuracy, smart decision-making and no mistakes. Even the interception was in Alshon Jeffery’s hands for a moment. Foles had that crazy 2013 season, but this run shows how important coaching and system is – probably at least as important as the QB himself.

• Doug Pederson kept the pedal down, made bold decisions and aggressive, unpredictable play calls. In short, he did everything we beg other coaches to do while shouting futilely at our TV screens each week. It’s amazing that basic common sense equals genius these days. Maybe this game serves as a turning point where coaches begin to assess risk and reward in service of winning the game rather than not being criticized by morons, but I wouldn’t count on it.

• The only Eagle to have more than 100 yards from scrimmage was Corey Clement. Fantasy-wise, this is still likely to be a tough team to handicap.

• Had Carson Wentz stayed healthy, there’s a good chance the Eagles would not have won the Super Bowl because even if his baseline level is higher than Foles’ the odds he would have played this well are long. There’s no question Wentz is the team’s starter next year, but Foles is obviously a starting-caliber NFL QB somewhere.

• Tom Brady played a great game too, the fumble and dropped pass notwithstanding. (It’s a little unfair to compare Foles’ five-yard flip catch while facing the QB to Brady’s 15-yard over-the-shoulder target for which he needed to extend his arms fully. It was catchable, but anyone would have caught Foles’ target.) Brady also made one bad play at the end of the first half when he escaped the rush and instead of throwing it away (or aiming downfield) tried to run and got tackled in bounds, essentially ending the half. Otherwise, he set the record for passing yards with 505, threw three TDs and no picks against a much better defense than the one Foles shredded.

• It was amazing on the final drive that Brady even got a live ball into the end zone. He converted a 4th-and-10 inside his own 20 and also escaped the rush to unleash the Hail Mary which made it to its destination as he took a hit.

• Danny Amendola had the fifth most receiving yards in Super Bowl history. When Julian Edelman went down, I mocked the notion he’d have a big role by Tweeting “Danny AmendoLOLa,” but the joke’s on me. Amendola doesn’t have a big catch radius, but if the ball’s in it, he comes down with it.

• The Patriots had an odd game plan. They barely used Rob Gronkowski in the first half and had to settle for two field-goal attempts, and they barely used Dion Lewis (nine carries, zero targets) all game, despite losing Brandin Cooks. Gronk, of course, had a monster second half, but you wonder why it took so long to feed him. And Lewis has been one of the best backs in the league this year.

• What if Matt Patricia is just some crazy homeless man, and Belichick was trying to prove he could win without a defensive coordinator? And the joke wasn’t supposed to go this far, but now the Lions hired Patricia, and Belichick can’t walk it back?

• I watched some of the halftime show, and I came away thinking two things: (1) I can’t believe how long it goes – much longer than a typical NFL halftime; and (2) How will they get all that stuff off the field in time for the start of the second half? In fact, here’s how:

Honestly, this is an engineering marvel. That we can do this and haven’t yet colonized Mars is surprising.

• I don’t care much for commercials, Super Bowl or not, and I was especially surprised people liked the goofy Odell Beckham-Eli Manning spot. First off, Eli sucks, and OBJ is a generational talent, so as a Giants fan, I didn’t like pretending it were otherwise (though the team apparently is.) But setting that aside, it was the obvious joke, the goofy white guy pretending to dance, two supposedly tough NFL guys pretending to be in love. All set to a cheesy ’80s movie theme, the kind of which has been mocked a million times. Don’t be such an easy mark.

• I’m not thrilled the Giants are apparently bringing back Eli, but if this season taught us anything, it’s that the system matters more than the quarterback in most cases. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Nick Foles and even Josh McCown had good years. Maybe Pat Shurmur can coax a good season out of Eli yet. Hopefully, they’re not foolish enough to pass up on the next Wentz or DeShaun Watson with pick No. 2 in the meantime.

It’s axiomatic there’s no point in watching the Super Bowl unless you have something riding on it. The line in the game is Patriots minus 4.5 as of this writing, and I’ll make my pick in Beating the Book during the middle of the week. But in the meantime, let’s take a look at some of […]

It’s axiomatic there’s no point in watching the Super Bowl unless you have something riding on it. The line in the game is Patriots minus 4.5 as of this writing, and I’ll make my pick in Beating the Book during the middle of the week. But in the meantime, let’s take a look at some of the roughly 400 prop bets offered for the game.

The first things I like to look at are the alternative point spreads. Instead of getting the Eagles plus 4.5, you can take the Eagles minus 10.5 and get 5:1 odds on your bet. Imagine if you had taken that line (or even better Eagles minus 17.5 at 9:1) against the Vikings last week. While it’s unlikely the Eagles blow out the Patriots, it’s hardly implausible.

I’ll take the Eagles minus 10.5 at 5:1. I’ll also take the Patriots minus 21.5 at 8:1. It’s not hard to see Nick Foles reverting to journeyman form if the Pats get a lead, and he’s forced to drop back predictably. Blowouts happen all the time in Super Bowls.

I like betting the total over 58.5 at 3:1 too. Neither defense is equipped to stop the opposing offense, and if it’s close, the game could hit that number easily.

Other props I’d consider:

Ajayi averaged 5.8 YPC with the Eagles, though that’s not the relevant stat because if you go 1, 2, 3, 2, 30, you’re an underdog to crack 3.5 on any particular carry. I’ll take the under here, assuming the squares will jump on the over. I’ll also take the same under on LeGarrette Blount, revenge narrative notwithstanding:

I like the over on the shortest-field-goal prop as both coaches are too smart to attempt chip shots under most circumstances where you’d try one:

I also like the following:

Over 67.5 yards for Brandin Cooks (-110). The Eagles are a tough run defense, but softer against the pass, a fact of which Bill Belichick is no doubt aware.

Rob Gronkowski at +130 to score a TD. Gronk scored eight times in 14 games this year and 76 in 109 during his career, i.e., he’s always been better than even money to score a TD, and here you’re getting +130. I don’t quite understand the line. (The Eagles gave up only five TD to TE all year, but that’s only slightly better than average, they never faced Gronk and when they played against Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce, both scored against them.)

Tom Brady over 294.5 passing yards (-110). The O/U for attempts is 39.5. That means Brady, who averaged 7.9 YPA on the year, only needs 7.5 YPA to get there. The Eagles allowed 6.5 YPA to opposing QBs, and the league average YPA was 7.0, meaning they’re half a yard better, so it’s about right under normal circumstances. But I’ll bet Brady’s YPA is more determinative than the Eagles defensive YPA here, and moreover, in a dome, he’ll have ideal conditions.

If you want to check out some ridiculous props, here are a few:

I probably won’t touch any of those, though it’s not because I think they’re degenerate (they are), but more that I’m not all that up on the NBA these days.

These were good games, even the blowout in Philly. There was more a sense of plays made than plays missed, high-level throws, not that many stoppages. I don’t think there was a missed FG or PAT all day. • Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Pats – yes, they benefitted from two PI […]

These were good games, even the blowout in Philly. There was more a sense of plays made than plays missed, high-level throws, not that many stoppages. I don’t think there was a missed FG or PAT all day.

• Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Pats – yes, they benefitted from two PI calls and the Jaguars went into a shell for the entire fourth quarter- but coming back from 10 points down without his Hall of Fame TE against that defense was bad ass. This will be the eighth Super Bowl of his career, and he got it done with Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

• Blake Bortles played well, but the offense got too conservative in the second half, and it was disappointing not to see more designed scrambles – at the very least to shake things up on early downs as the Pats bottled up an ineffective Leonard Fournette.

• Rob Gronkowski must have been pretty woozy for the concussion protocol to be taken seriously in a game of this magnitude and given the score and situation at the time. I detailed my thoughts on that two weeks ago. I’d imagine he’ll be fine for the Super Bowl, though.

• I say this every week, but the kicking in the NFL has gotten ridiculously good. When did Josh Lambo become Justin Tucker? That kick would have been good from 70, and it was straight down the middle. And why did the Chargers ditch him for a Younghoe? (If you want to get Twitter likes, just make a Younghoe joke.)

• The craziest thing about the Vikings-Eagles is the Vikings drove down the field easily to go up 7-0, stuffed the Eagles and were near midfield again before the pick-six tied it up. In other words, the Eagles won 38-0 from that point on.

• There’s no way Carson Wentz would have played better than Nick Foles (10.7 YPA, three TDs, zero picks, one sack) did, and he almost certainly would have played worse. It’s funny because I tweeted the Vikings-Saints should have been the NFC title game, but maybe the Falcons-Eagles was always the tougher side of the draw.

• Who is Nick Foles anyway? You can’t have a 27:2 TD:INT ratio and 9.1 YPA over 13 games – as he did in 2013 – from dumb luck. And you don’t stay calm and downfield-focused with rushers all around you against arguably the league’s top defense in a Championship game by accident, either. I get that Eli Manning and Joe Flacco played well during their runs too, but that’s not a bad floor for a player we’d written off as a journeyman scrub.

• What a great game for Doug Pederson and the Eagles offense. He kept the pedal down all game, no matter the score and never gave the Vikings a chance to breathe. Doug Marrone should have watched and taken notes. Consider the Jaguars kneel-down with 55 seconds left in the first quarter. The Eagles got the ball back with 29 seconds, up 21-7, and marched down for a field-goal to end the half.

• Case Keenum didn’t have a good game, but he didn’t look awful, either. He was under pressure most of the time, trailing by a lot and forcing the action. It’ll be interesting to see what the Vikings decide at QB next year, but if I were them I’d stick with Keenum. I’d certainly take him over Sam Bradford’s and Teddy Bridgewater’s carcasses.

• The Eagles are 5.5-point underdogs in the Super Bowl, down from seven before the NFC Championship game. Foles’ play moved the needle that much. I’m not sure who I’m taking yet. Probably the Pats, but Pederson’s coaching and Foles’ decision making and accuracy at least have me thinking about it.

I don’t even remember what happened Saturday. The Jags-Steelers was an insane game, and then the Vikings-Saints possibly the most insane I’ve ever watched. It also knocked me out of all my playoff pools and cost me against the spread. I couldn’t fall asleep after it, I was so stunned. It helped to imagine the […]

I don’t even remember what happened Saturday. The Jags-Steelers was an insane game, and then the Vikings-Saints possibly the most insane I’ve ever watched. It also knocked me out of all my playoff pools and cost me against the spread. I couldn’t fall asleep after it, I was so stunned. It helped to imagine the outcome would have been the same had Drew Brees simply failed to complete the 4th-and-10 pass to Willie Snead, three drives – an eternity – earlier.

• Eagles-Falcons seemed vaguely about bad offensive playcalling by Atlanta and one drive where Nick Foles looked like 27:2 Foles after being bad for most of the game. The Vikings are only 3.5-point favorites in Philly next week, and I’m laying the wood.

• The Pats-Titans was frustrating in part because I had Tennessee plus 13.5, but also because they scored the first TD and then got lost in the Pats gimmickry. The Pats’ pace was like Chip Kelly’s but with sharper playcalling, and Tennessee was totally unprepared. It didn’t help that Mike Mularkey decided to punt on 4th-and-short from midfield down seven and then later down 21 on 4th-and-8 in the fourth quarter.

I often feel as though the Patriots aren’t good so much as tricky. And the tricks work over and over again until they meet a team that solves them, and then it’s a game based on merit. When that happens, it’s usually a closer contest because the Pats can’t overpower you, and the offense is mostly designed around short throws. Don’t get me wrong, Tom Brady is pinpoint and usually makes the right read, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski are excellent, and Brandin Cooks, who hasn’t been fully used yet, is dangerous too. But so often, the defense is off balance to begin with, and it’s not even a fair fight. I expect the Jaguars defense to give them some problems, though Gronk and Lewis might be the perfect players to solve it (Look what Le’Veon Bell and Vance McDonald did.) Still, I’m taking the nine or nine and a half next week for sure.

• Marcus Mariota made some nice throws, but lost one of his tackles early and couldn’t get away from the rush. They need a new coach before he goes down the Sam Bradford career path.

• Ben Roethlisberger held the ball too long on one play, and made a bad audible on 4th-and-short to turn the ball over on downs, but I’ve never seen four deep balls thrown to covered receivers with that much accuracy in a single game. Credit to Antonio Brown, Bell and Martavis Bryant (who was actually open) for making tough catches, but you couldn’t have thrown better balls if you were three feet from them. Roethlisberger will be back in 2018, and he’ll be a top-10 real-life QB.

• Bell and Brown are such fantasy monsters. It’s every week with them, no matter the opponent, no matter that Brown was out three weeks with an injury. Impossible to fade.

• The Jaguars defense played well despite giving up 42 points. That’s a crazy thing to say, but it’s true. On three of the long TDs, the receivers were not open.

• Blake Bortles was spotty at times, but he did not shrink from the moment, leading the team on fourth quarter drives to thwart the Steelers comeback. I expect him to move the ball against the Patriots defense too and make plays with his scrambling. He also hasn’t thrown a pick yet during the playoffs.

• Leonard Fournette was a monster in the first half, but I’m concerned about his ankle after it swells up this week.

• It’s crazy Roethlisberger had 469 passing yards and five TDs against the Jaguars pass defense.

• The Vikings-Saints was so unbelievable, and I don’t mean that entirely in a good way. It was thrilling, to be sure, but too random for my taste. It’s better than a questionable PI putting the Vikings in FG range – Case Keenum made the throw, and Stefon Diggs the catch – but I’m not a fan of flukey reversals. Had there been two minutes left, and Keenum made perfect throws to win it on a final drive, no problem. But one prayer misplayed by a defender is too arbitrary for me.

• The strength of the game were the preceding drives where the Saints – once down 17-0 – drove down to make it 21-20, the Vikings got the 53-yard FG to take the lead, and Drew Brees, despite a Michael Thomas drop on 3rd-and-10, led the team for the supposed game-winning kick. The fourth-and-10 conversion on the road against arguably the league’s best defense was Hall of Fame worthy. So I was disappointed to see that wiped out by an error on defense.

• Snead, who made the key 4th-and-10 catch, also missed a wide open Alvin Kamara on a gadget play. I know they probably practiced it a lot, and Snead was a QB in high school, but you have to put some air under it, give yourself some margin of error. I know it’s easy to say from the comfort of my keyboard rather than on the field in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, but my first thought was “I could have made that throw!”

• I say this every week, but as someone raised on the NFL in the ’70s and ’80s, I’m astounded at the level of field-goal kicking today. Forbath drilling 53-yarders with the season on the line like it’s no big deal, and the Saints not even concerned with getting closer than a 43-yarder for Will Lutz with their season at stake.

• The insistence on trying the PAT after the game is over is so bizarre. I mean the stadium has gone crazy, everyone’s on the field, and they have to execute this formality?

It was the first time I saw commercials all year as I had been on the red-zone channel during the regular season and watching the condensed version of standalone games. I’ll just say once you’ve watched commercial and stoppage free, it’s hard to go back to the old way of consuming the product. • The Chiefs […]

It was the first time I saw commercials all year as I had been on the red-zone channel during the regular season and watching the condensed version of standalone games. I’ll just say once you’ve watched commercial and stoppage free, it’s hard to go back to the old way of consuming the product.

• The Chiefs game was a microcosm of their season. Start off great, abandon Kareem Hunt, collapse. Alex Smith got 8.0 YPA with no turnovers, and they got outscored 19-0 in the second half.

• Marcus Mariota had a big fantasy day with 46 yards rushing and a TD pass to himself, along with a second TD pass and 205 passing yards. The only receiver of note was Delanie Walker, his tight end.

• Derrick Henry had a monster day, and predictably so against a soft Chiefs run defense and without DeMarco’s Murray’s carcass blocking him. Henry has a good matchup at New England too, though game flow is likely to go against him.

• Travis Kelce’s concussion in the second quarter was a massive blow to Kansas City’s offense. He had already amassed 66 yards and a score, and the Chiefs did next to nothing once he left.

• I used to mock Matt Ryan “Matty Ice” as “Vanilla Ice” because he was overhyped for a merely good but unspectacular player, but I was impressed by his showing against the Rams. The TD to Julio Jones with pressure in his face, the calmness and patience while being rushed on third down to complete a short throw to Austin Hooper. Despite the Super Bowl collapse, he’s unrattled.

• The Falcons ran the ball a ton in the second half, and even when it was only marginally effective, you could see their defense getting more rest and the Rams getting worn down.

• Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods had 27 targets between them. Sammy Watkins had only four.

• Todd Gurley had 100 yards on only 14 carries, but disappointed in the passing game with 10 yards on a whopping 10 targets. Not all of them were catchable, but he dropped a couple too.

• A Brazilian friend of mine watched the first half of the Jaguars-Bills game with me, and I doubt he’ll make that mistake again. Even he – once I explained down and distance to him – was calling Sean McDermott a coward for punting on 4th-and-short from midfield.

• Blake Bortles looked terrible in the first half, unable to complete routine short throws I’d be embarrassed to miss if I were playing in the park with friends. But he had a much better second half, largely because of his scrambling ability. He’ll need to make some plays with his arm next week at Pittsburgh, though.

• Leonard Fournette looks fairly ordinary. For a team built the way the Jags are to win, he needs to be great.

• The Nathan Peterman entrance was the best part of the game. As absurd as the fact I wasted three hours of my life watching it.

• Ted Ginn, the ninth overall pick in 2007, is peaking at the end of Year 11. The 32-year averaged 11.2 YPT (1st) on the regular season and gashed his former team for 115 more and a long TD Sunday. The Saints are one of the rare teams that still throw the deep ball, and having Ginn to force the defense to cover the entire field is a major advantage. Michael Thomas also had a big game – 9-8-131 – and made a great back shoulder catch on a key third down to help seal the game.

• Drew Brees passed for 376 yards on 11.4 YPA – he’s still at the top of his game.

• The Panthers shut down Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara and nearly won the game as a result. A key against the Vikings – who are among the league’s best against wideouts – will be getting Kamara, who caught only one ball, involved in the passing game again.

• Cam Newton played a great game – 349 yards, two TDs, no picks, 8.7 YPA and 37 rushing yards. He was knocked out for a play after getting “poked in the eye” but came back to throw a long TD to Christian McCaffrey. Even if Newton were concussed as many suspect, I can see the case for letting him play in that situation. It’s the fourth quarter of a playoff game, the team needed him and he wanted back in. These guys choose to play in the NFL for a reason, and to nanny-state that away in a game of that magnitude against their will “for their own good” is problematic. There’s no ideal solution here, but it’s not black and white that he should have to sit because “concussion protocol” and “player safety.”

• Greg Olsen is all the way back. He should be a top-five TE heading into 2018.

• The kicking in the NFL is ridiculously good these days. In this game alone there were two 57-plus yard FGs. I’d have to imagine it’s the only time in history both teams had a made FG from that distance.

I was in Porto, Portugal for New Year’s Eve, and I honestly didn’t watch a single snap of the action. So consider these more my reactions to the results than actual “observations.” However, I did follow along on my phone from a pizza place while convincing people to buy bitcoin over large carafes of white […]

I was in Porto, Portugal for New Year’s Eve, and I honestly didn’t watch a single snap of the action. So consider these more my reactions to the results than actual “observations.” However, I did follow along on my phone from a pizza place while convincing people to buy bitcoin over large carafes of white wine.

• I’m as surprised as anyone the Ravens missed the playoffs. Not that they would have done much, but their offense had emerged as league average, and their defense was probably top five. I don’t care much that two scrub teams – Bills and Titans – got in, though. The Ravens only needed to win a home game against the Bengals, and they couldn’t do it.

• Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard could be a poor man’s Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram next year if Cincy invests in its offensive line. Considering how important the running game has been to the Saints, Vikings, Patriots, Chiefs and Rams this year, there’s a strong case for doing it. The Bengals – and the Seahawks – both suffered from neglecting that aspect of the game this season.

• Jameis Winston and the Bucs picked it up down the stretch. Chris Godwin looks like a player next to Mike Evans too, and O.J. Howard will be in Year 2.

• The Saints lucked into the No. 4 seed, meaning if the favorites win, they head to Philly rather than Minnesota next week.

• It’s amazing the Seahawks stuck with Blair Walsh as long as they did. Good thing for them the Falcons won anyway.

• Amari Cooper is still good. He was sluggish early and got hurt. He’ll be a nice buy-low in 2018. Marshawn Lynch still has it, but I wouldn’t bet on a repeat next year, assuming he even returns.

• The Chargers had their chance in Kansas City a few weeks ago and didn’t show up. They were a good team with the talent to go deep in the playoffs had they made it, but too little too late.

• Don’t sleep on the Chiefs players in playoff pools. They have a home game against the Titans and likely a road game against a merely decent Patriots defense. Two games from an offense-heavy team would be valuable, and they did beat the Patriots in Week 1.

• The Falcons are another interesting playoff team. They’re only 4.5-point dogs to the Rams, and should they win, they’d travel to the Carson Wentz-less Eagles. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons play the winner of the Saints-Vikings in the NFC title game.

• I’d love to see Josh Gordon on a real team next year, whether it’s the Browns with a real QB, or elsewhere.

• It’s surprising how mediocre Dak Prescott was in the season’s second half. I get that Tyron Smith missed much of it, and the offensive coaching in Dallas is shockingly bad, but I expected much more.

• Eli Manning went out with a win, but it wasn’t thanks to his 4.7 YPA performance. I hope Dave Gettleman and whoever he hires to coach realize keeping Manning is not a “win now” move.

• Dion Lewis was a monster in the fantasy playoffs and grades out as one of the league’s best backs in real life. It’s unclear what’ll happen if Rex Burkhead and James White get healthy, but Lewis is a top-three RB for fantasy playoff leagues.

• Tom Brady quietly had a good year – 32 TDs, eight picks, 7.9 YPA, played all 16 games, led the Patriots to a No. 1 seed. It was short of his previous MVP seasons, but I think he wins again, ahead of Todd Gurley who powered the No. 3-seeded Rams.

• The Vikings were a spread-covering machine this year. Latavius Murray had all eight of his TDs from Weeks 7-16.

• Frank Gore has to retire this offseason, right? He’s been arguably the most durable player in league history, given his age and position, but he hasn’t hit 4.0 YPC since 2014, and he turns 35 in May.

• Kenny Golladay will be another interesting Year 2 wideout.

• Jimmy Garoppolo will be drafted as a top-10 QB next year, especially if the 49ers upgrade his weapons. I expect he’ll go ahead of Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott.

• Watch out for the Jaguars in the playoffs. The Patriots are always smart and disciplined, but this isn’t their best team, and if Antonio Brown is less than 100 percent, the Steelers aren’t entirely themselves, either. And once an elite defense makes it to the Super Bowl, they almost always win it.

This could have been another horrible week, but it wasn’t. I was playing for third place in the Stopa Law Firm league, and I had hedged with finalist Scott Pianowski, who had the most points. The rule in that league is if you win it and also have the most points, you get everything. If […]

This could have been another horrible week, but it wasn’t. I was playing for third place in the Stopa Law Firm league, and I had hedged with finalist Scott Pianowski, who had the most points. The rule in that league is if you win it and also have the most points, you get everything. If the owner with the most points does not win, then payouts go four places deep, i.e, to all the semi-finalists.

Scott won easily, so the hedge paid off. All I had to do was get third place and I’d win $1125. (Third is worth $2250, but Scott and I agreed to split it, regardless of whether he won or lost. I didn’t hedge the $1,000 fourth-place haul, so if I lost I’d have gotten nothing.)

Unfortunately, I’d started Corey Coleman over Ted Ginn, costing me 17 points, and Andy Dalton over Jay Cutler (it’s a QB-flex league), costing me five more. Heading into Christmas Day, I was up 14 with Nick Foles going, but my opponent had Le’Veon Bell, Jesse James (two-TE league) and Michael Crabtree. Yahoo’s software had him winning by 10.

It was nice to see James get ignored for most of the game (one target, no catches) with Vance McDonald being the TE du jour, and Bell getting vultured on the Steelers first rush TD was even better. But rooting against Bell is miserable. There are so many little dump-offs to him, and he broke a longer run for a TD late in the game, after a senseless facemask call extended a drive. Bell was at 17 of his projected 22 points with most of the fourth quarter remaining, but the Steelers wisely subbed in Stevan Ridley to close out the blowout. Instead of getting 30-odd points combined, the duo had about 17, and I was only down three heading into the late game, with Foles against Crabtree.

The late game was too late for me to stay up and watch (I’m in Portugal), and the worst outcome would have been losing and also wrecking my week with lack of sleep. So I watched the condensed version of it this morning. Zero catches for Crabtree, and Foles’ painful, ugly showing was enough (his only TD was on a 17-yard screen pass, though Alshon Jeffery dropped what should have been a second one.) Who cares, though? The uglier, the better, especially with a bad team that was bottom-half in points, had Andrew Luck as its most expensive player and set the all-time record-low in scoring Week 1 with 59 points. A Christmas miracle if there ever was one.

• The Eagles are toast in the playoffs. Their defense is okay, but having Carson Wentz extend drives he had no business extending protected them. You can’t be life and death with the Giants and Raiders and get anywhere. It was nice of them to push ATS on that last-second defensive TD, though why not kick the PAT and cover outright?

• Marshawn Lynch still has it. It’ll be interesting to see whether he comes back in 2018.

• Amari Cooper had the easiest TD of all time, probably on everyone’s bench given his status, YTD performance and that he was playing Monday night.

• If Antonio Brown is himself in time for the Divisional round, his injury might have helped the Steelers. Martavis Bryant and Juju Smith-Schuster are both good receivers, and Bryant looks engaged and focused again. This is the best receiving corps in the NFL, especially given McDonald is an upgrade at TE, and Bell is obviously top-tier at RB.

• Alfred Blue had the rare 100-yard game in a 34-6 loss. Congratulations to him.

• DeAndre Hopkins always gets his, even if he has to create a catchable deflection to himself.

• It’s so great the Giants brought Eli Manning back. Losing 23-0 with two picks and a fumble is so much more dignified.

• Jason Garrett was rightly pilloried on Twitter for throwing the ball at the goal line rather than handing to Zeke Elliott, but Garrett’s cowardice seems to have affected Dak Prescott too. Prescott holds the ball too long, never takes shots down the field and checks down to sluggish Jason Witten on every play. I once thought Prescott was Russell Wilson 2.0, but now he looks like peak Jason Campbell.

• Dez Bryant has probably lost a step, but it’s hard to know because the Cowboys so rarely even try for a big play.

• It was another surprisingly bad game for the Seattle passing game. Russell Wilson got 4.4 YPA, and that’s not including three sacks. Jimmy Graham is a goal-line specialist only, basically Benjarvus Green-Ellis, circa 2011.

• Jimmy Garoppolo is somehow exceeding the substantial hype. He had 8.1 YPA, two passing TDs and a rushing TD against the Jaguars, while the 49ers put up 44 points. There will be a lot of pressure on whoever the Patriots take with that second-round pick, especially after the 49ers beat the Patriots in the 2018 Super Bowl.

• Blake Bortles made some egregious picks, but still put up massive fantasy numbers. The Jaguars aren’t the 2000 Ravens because Bortles has more upside and downside than game-manager Trent Dilfer. I’d still bet on the Jaguars to do damage in the playoffs, though.

• Jameis Winston had a massive 13.6 YPA in Carolina, but the Bucs still found a way to lose the game. The Panthers are such an ugly team, though.

• I don’t have anything to say about the Broncos-Redskins game. There’s nothing interesting about either team.

• The Jets always compete, even with Bryce Petty slinging it for 4.3 YPA and a pick. Congratulations if you had Bilal Powell – your bench crushed it.

• The Saints and Vikings are the NFC’s two best teams. The Rams are good too, but Greg Zuerlein’s injury was significant for them. I’m still rooting for Seattle to secure the last spot. Despite their underwhelming play, I always feel Wilson gives them a puncher’s chance.

• The Bills hung with the Patriots until Sean McDermott for God knows what reason tried a 50-yard FG on 4th-and-1, down seven with 13 minutes left in the game. Stephen Hauschka missed, and the Patriots scored on the next drive, putting the game out of reach.

• Alex Smith had a Year 13 breakout after all. It’s beyond bizarre a former no-upside dink-and-dunker like Smith would finish as the QB2 in fantasy.

• Jay Cutler and the Dolphins really believe in DaVante Parker. He had 10 more targets in Week 16, giving him 22 over the last two weeks. Parker’s production was modest, however.

• Todd Gurley is probably on a higher percentage of fantasy league winners than any back in league history. Not only was he a top regular season player but he’s had 270 rushing yards, 13 catches, 176 receiving yards and six TDs the last two weeks in your fantasy playoffs. And his Week 14 – 135 YFS, three catches and two TDs – was a big lift too.

• Joe Mixon looked good early before getting hurt again, and Gio Bernard had a massive game – 168 YFS, seven catches and a TD. Mixon has a future, but Bernard has always been good when healthy. If the Bengals can improve their offensive line, the duo can be a poor man’s Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara.

• Eric Ebron will go into 2018 with a new round of hype. I’d bet he delivers this time – TE is the skill position that typically takes the most time to learn.

• The DeShone Kizer experiment was not fun while it lasted, especially if you started Corey Coleman over Ted Ginn in a high-stakes matchup. In my defense, Coleman (one catch, three yards) had more targets (six) than Ginn (five.) It turns out Kizer targets in Chicago are less valuable than Brees targets at home against the Falcons. Who knew volume wasn’t always king?

• I watched maybe 5-10 minutes of the Packers-Vikings game on my phone in the aftermath of a boozy Christmas party I attended in London. I was nearly blacked-out during the party and have nothing to say about the game.

• For similar reasons, I didn’t watch any of the Ravens-Colts, but it was nice having Justin Tucker in a couple key places.

After a brutal weekend it was nice to get a small respite – DeSean Jackson getting me a point or so before getting hurt was enough to win a small, private, low-stakes DFS contest, and I had the Bucs plus six. • Jameis Winston played a great game – 299 yards, 8.5 YPA, three TDs, no […]

After a brutal weekend it was nice to get a small respite – DeSean Jackson getting me a point or so before getting hurt was enough to win a small, private, low-stakes DFS contest, and I had the Bucs plus six.

• Jameis Winston played a great game – 299 yards, 8.5 YPA, three TDs, no picks and only two sacks. He also ran for 18 yards. Mike Evans caught five of eight targets for 79 yards and a score, but it would have been a huge day had he not been called twice for offensive PI on big plays. O.J. Howard might have had a big day, but he got hurt on his TD catch and left the game.

• Peyton Barber started for the Bucs and looked okay. LOL at those who waited out Doug Martin’s early-season suspension.

• Matt Ryan and Julio Jones had pedestrian games – you simply can’t count on either this year.

• Devonta Freeman had a huge game, leading the team in both rushing and receiving and totaling 194 YFS and a TD with five catches. He almost had a second TD, but fumbled into the end zone.

• Matt Bryant had a FG blocked, but also crushed a 57-yarder. It’s crazy how good the kicking in the modern NFL is compared to past eras.

This was a bottom-five all-time week for me. I went 2-10-3 ATS, pending Monday night and got bounced from my two remaining playoffs. When you’re losing like that, the little things begin to annoy you more. Like Red Zone Channel host Scott Hanson’s relentless, pointless, inane enthusiasm and the cutting back to highlights of earlier […]

This was a bottom-five all-time week for me. I went 2-10-3 ATS, pending Monday night and got bounced from my two remaining playoffs. When you’re losing like that, the little things begin to annoy you more. Like Red Zone Channel host Scott Hanson’s relentless, pointless, inane enthusiasm and the cutting back to highlights of earlier games in which you had no interest the first time you saw them, let alone the 10th.

Like the predictable play calling, constant replay reviews, injury stoppages and bad coaching decisions. And this doesn’t include commercials from which I have detoxed my mind and soul this season. It’s the only reason I watch the Red-Zone Channel, which often shows us chip-shot field goals and PATs rather than interesting action at midfield – to avoid commercials. When I have one of the standalone games also streaming it’s usually on mute, and if it’s not, I’ve developed lightning reflexes to silence the offending window as the first bars of the insidious jingle activate my mental immune system.

There are only two tolerable ways to consume NFL football: (1) Red Zone Channel during the densely packed early slate; and (2) Game Pass – the 40-minute condensed version. You knew this already, but it’s never more clear than when you’re having one of your worst weeks of all time.

• Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan run the most predictable offense in NFL history. (I’ll give them a slight edge over Ben McAdoo/Mike Sullivan.) I could have called out their plays for them. And why bother to get Dez Bryant involved when you have Jason Witten and Cole Beasley. Dak Prescott needs to show more courage too – throw it to Bryant and let him make a play. It actually worked late in the game.

• What a joke of a game. The Cowboys kicked the FG from the one-inch line rather than going for the TD, but still had the Raiders dead to rights before committing a 55-yard PI on 4th-and-10. But Derek Carr, despite having the tie locked up and the win likely in hand if he simply goes down at the one, instead of reaching for the pylon, voluntarily fumbles the ball out of the end zone to gift the game back to Dallas.

• Marshawn Lynch still has it. Too bad he wasted perhaps his final season in Oakland.

• The Patriots-Steelers game was also a joke. The Patriots went ahead, the Steelers drove down the field in two plays and had it all but won on the TD to Jesse James. But James’ TD was overturned because he didn’t control the ball all the way to the grave*, and Ben Roethlisberger threw a senseless pick rather than getting the game-tying field goal. Can’t any of these games be settled on merit rather than technicalities, bad decisions and lucky bounces?

* Only upon one’s death is the catch actually completed (Rule 85f, subsection 44c.)

• Rob Gronkowski showed why he’s great. But it’s also Tom Brady who throws to him while he’s covered and trusts Gronk to make the play. I don’t think the Patriots are that good this year, but they’ll probably win the Super Bowl again when some other team botches the end-game clock management and fumbles an inch from the pylon.

• Antonio Brown’s injury was unfortunate, but I don’t feel sorry for Brown owners who have gotten so much consistent production and health. Maybe it’s because I’ve so rarely had shares of him the last few years, while I’ve had plenty of A.J. Green and Julio Jones at similar cost.

• The Titans are unwatchable. Is there one player on that team you look forward to seeing play? Let’s hope they miss the playoffs so an interesting one like that Chargers can get a shot. Even the Bills, who have no chance to go anywhere, would be a much more interesting story.

• Jimmy Garoppolo is a monster – 389 yards, 8.9 YPA with Marquise Goodwin as his best receiver. Garoppolo will be drafted as a top-10 QB next year, given his coach and the likelihood the 49ers sign/draft better targets for him.

• The Rams beat the Seahawks 42-7, and the game wasn’t that close.

• Todd Gurley had a game for the ages with four TDs, 180 YFS and three catches in three quarters. Gurley has 1,717 YFS, 17 TDs and 54 catches in 14 games, numbers that prorate to 1,962 YFS, 19 TDs and 62 catches.

• The Seahawks sacked Russell Wilson seven times, and he managed just 4.7 YPA not including the sack yardage, which was massive.

• It would have been nice for the Seahawks to provide notice ahead of the playoffs about Jimmy Graham. He totaled minus-one yards in Weeks 14 and 15 combined. That I have Graham on three teams goes a long way to explaining why I did so poorly in the playoffs this year.

• Blake Bortles is yet another example of how quarterback play is usually a function of conditions and not something inherent about the player. At the extremes (Aaron Rodgers, Wilson), players can excel in a below-average environment, but most QBs are massively dependent on good conditions. Bortles had 326 yards, 11.2 YPA and three TDs playing with a huge lead against a weak defense Sunday.

• DeAndre Hopkins always gets his. I doubted he would this week, given the matchup, but 13 targets were good for a 4-80-1 line.

• Aaron Rodgers made some mistakes, but more or less looked like himself in difficult conditions. The Packers probably would have tied the game too, but for a fumble on the final drive.

• Greg Olsen is back, and that makes Cam Newton and the Panthers significantly more dangerous in the playoffs. He’s the receiver with whom Newton’s had the greatest rapport during his career.

• One thing that went right is my best bet, the Redskins, covered. They barely covered, but I’ll take what I can get.

• The Giants played the Eagles tough twice this year. Even with Carson Wentz, Philadelphia needed a last-second 61-yard field goal to win.

• Eli Manning had an out of nowhere 434 yards and three TDs on a solid 7.6 YPA, but he not only wasn’t in your active lineup, he was probably on the waiver wire. Sterling Shepard had a monster 16-11-139-1 line. The Giants should have a top-5 receiving corps (including tight end Evan Engram) next year, and I shudder to think they might be dumb enough to bring back Manning after this showing.

• Nick Foles had four TDs passes, but an otherwise unremarkable 6.2 YPA and 237 passing yards against one of the league’s worst pass defenses.

• The Saints-Jets was surprisingly competitive, thanks in part to Brandon Coleman losing two fumbles in Jets territory. Bryce Petty got 4.6 YPA though, and the game was never seriously in doubt.

• Mark Ingram had 151 YFS and two TDs, thanks to a garbage time 50-yard TD. He now has 1,420 YFS, 11 TD and 51 catches in 14 games.

• The Bengals should not have bothered to make the trip to Minnesota. It was a waste of jet fuel.

• The DeShone Kizer experiment has run its course. The Hue Jackson one too. If Josh Gordon can resist going back to booze and drugs after playing in this offense, he is truly healed.

• Joe Flacco played his third straight credible game in a row. The Ravens might not be an easy out in the playoffs.

• Jay Cutler ran the four-minute drill (down two scores) like he took too much xanax to cure his hangover. I’ve never seen someone so relaxed with the game ticking away. DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry combined for 25 targets, with several of Parker’s in the end zone.

• It’s amazing the Bills, who could make the playoffs, gave away a game with Nate Peterman at QB. Tyrod Taylor has been very good when you account for the conditions around him, though it should be pointed out Goodwin and Robert Woods are excelling in their new homes while Sammy Watkins was better with Taylor.

• Why did the Chiefs forget to involve Kareem Hunt for almost half the season? It’s incomprehensible. Hunt almost never goes down on first contact, and he’s one of the most dangerous receiving backs in the league.

• I dogged Tyreek Hill all year, but he’s proven me wrong. He’s just too fast to cover one-on-one, and even if his route tree is limited, who cares if he’s catching long TDs?

• Many people look at Philip Rivers’ career rate stats and think “easy Hall of Famer,” but he seems to save his worst for the biggest spots. He’s the anti-Eli Manning, and I’d argue neither should get in.

• I have nothing to say about the Bears-Lions except that it was so unwatchable, I went to bed (Portugal time) at 11:00 pm rather than watching the second half on which I wasted 20 minutes of my life the next morning. We don’t need two games Saturday, three waves of games Sunday and standalone games on Thursday and Monday nights. If each game is 3.5 hours, that’s 24.5 hours to catch them all.

It was a pointless game between two bad teams, but I enjoyed seeing the deservedly maligned Brock Osweiler play well and appear to enjoy himself in the process. It was as though he finally realized he had nothing to lose and might as well let it fly. I also had the Colts plus two and […]

It was a pointless game between two bad teams, but I enjoyed seeing the deservedly maligned Brock Osweiler play well and appear to enjoy himself in the process. It was as though he finally realized he had nothing to lose and might as well let it fly. I also had the Colts plus two and a half, so that part wasn’t good.

• I don’t like the QB view as the default for the game. Too hard to discern depth. It’s fine once in a while, but this was too much.

• Osweiler looked sharp (11.4 YPA), and he wasn’t bad earlier in the year. I get why they gave Paxton Lynch a shot, but no idea why they turned back to Trevor Siemian when Lynch got hurt. Osweiler probably bought himself at least a couple years as a backup with his play, and backups occasionally turn into Case Keenum.

• C.J. Anderson went 30 for 158, but had no catches and didn’t score. Devontae Booker went 11 for 39 and had one catch for 10 yards. He also had a TD called back on a reception where he hurdled a would-be tackler and landed on his feet without breaking stride.

• Emmanuel Sanders came back to life, and he and Demaryius Thomas split the production like they used to. Cody Latimer had a 4-3-60-1 line, and you wonder why it’s taken so long for the Broncos to give him a chance.

• The Colts were the Colts. No one – Jacoby Brissett, Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton – did much. Jack Doyle led the team with an 8-7-47-0 showing.

• The Colts have a player 11 years older than Frank Gore. Put differently, Adam Vinatieri was Gore’s age in 2006.