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NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Rack Up a Profit from What the Bookies Missed

Week 10 offers 14 matchups for NFL bettors to spot. In this column, we serve up the best bets of the lot in each of the three NFL betting markets: straight up, ATS and totals betting.

Best SU Pick: Packers over Lions
There’s simply no way Aaron Rodgers is going to lose a third game in row, not least one against the Detroit Lions who have served as his personal punching bag at Lambeau. Speaking of which, Rodgers could use a good punching bag right now.

The last couple of weeks have been rather awful for the Packers. There are those that have gone so far as to suggest they’ve been illuminating, exposing the flaws of the Packers on both sides of the ball after the manner of the losses to the Broncos in week 8 and the Panthers in week 9. The two accounts couldn’t have been more contrasting in their entirety.

At Mile High, the Packers could not get anything going in a 29-10 loss. Things looked to be headed in the same direction in Carolina with the Panthers holding Rodgers to just seven points in the first half, when, all of a sudden, last season’s MVP started to figure it out. Rodgers lit up in the second half by throwing three of his four touchdown passes and rallying the Packers to within 8 points. He even brought them to within seconds of tying the game and sending it into overtime, only to missing a wide open Randall Cobb and throw an interception instead. Needless to say, Rodgers is not a happy camper right now. Lions are 1-7 SU and all but done as far as the broad spectrum of the season is concerned. Rodgers and the Packers should win this game in a big way and the NFL odds suggest as much.

Best ATS Pick: Panthers to cover -4.5
Carolina Panthers are 8-0 SU and 6-2-0 ATS on the season with a 7.9-point winning margin on the season. They are also covering by a plus 5.6-differential on average. Only three games were close affairs, decided by five points or less, and featured established teams and household names. These were New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis. The remaining five games were decided by seven points or more, three of which were double-digit wins and included wins over No.1 draft pick Jameis Winston (37-23) and second-year quarterback Blake Bortles (20-9).

Evidently, the Panthers aren’t getting the respect they deserve in this matchup. Or maybe it’s down to the public being simply overly optimistic about Marcus Mariota and the Titans after they defeated the New Orleans Saints in week 9 NFL betting. The Panthers opened as the 6-point favourites, but are currently being bet down to 4.5-to-5.5-points depending on your sportsbook of choice. Whatever the reasoning might be, that’s just too low for an undefeated Panthers side taking on a 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS Titans with a 3-point losing margin.

Best Total Pick: Raiders and Vikings To Go Over 43.5
The Raiders welcome the Vikings in week 10 NFL betting in a clash of last season’s NFL draft picks: Teddy Bridgewater and Derrek Carr. Both second-year quarterbacks are enjoying standout seasons, surprising many NFL bettors as they look to make a push for the playoffs down the stretch. But enough of waxing lyrical about these emerging talents in the game.

Game totals are trading around the 43.5-point line or slightly higher at 44, which appears to be giving credence to the Vikings mainly and their 1-7 O/U record this season. Indeed, they have cashed on the UNDER the most of any team in the NFL and their games have produced some of the lowest scores over the course of the season.

What about the Raiders though? Surely, they too have a say about what goes on the scoreboard. They boast a 6-0-2 OVER record this season, which is the second highest in the league after the Browns. Offense is soaring something huge in recent weeks and posting dizzying numbers, but defense is leaking quite a lot of points too. Those are things to consider when making this NFL pick. More importantly, the Raiders are at home where they are 3-1 in O/U betting.