Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year? Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.

It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.

Can you really say that you could bet with confidence anybody under 5/1 this year? Value will eventually make somebody look attractive imho.

It might have been above 5/1 until Classic Empire's win. When you have a 2 year old champion coming off a big effort there naturally will be some benefit of a doubt.

Besides, in a race like this bettors tend to bunch instead of differentiate year to year. The favorite falls within a certain range no matter how dominant or vulnerable.

Battaglia similarly always seems to slot the favorite in the same small range and drop the second and third choices into the same territory.

I don't agree with Battaglia that Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry are basically indistinguishable. IMO there is a clear gap in ability. That will certainly be a matchup water for me on Always Dreaming if the odds are comparable. Again, I don't see how anybody could back Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby if they didn't also have him in that very soft spot in the Wood. He basically just had to show up there.

Regardless, I appreciate that on racing forums the betting aspect is well known and basic mistakes are not made. Yesterday I was reading a football article that asserted Christian McCaffrey was "odds-on favorite" to be selected by one specific team. Sure.

Sort of agree with you about Always Dreaming having a lot more natural talent and brilliance than Irish War Cry, however there's also a gap in experience and foundation, imho, which is probably what he's basing that statement on so while I personally rank Always Dreaming ahead of IWC I can see the rationale behind his statement. It's also quite possible his mind will change by the time the ML odds go up.

Jose Lezcano has been named to ride State of Honor in the Kentucky Derby on May 6, trainer Mark Casse said Tuesday afternoon.

State of Honor, second most recently in the Florida Derby, had been ridden by Julien Leparoux, but Leparoux is committed to Casse's other Derby starter, champion Classic Empire, who won the Arkansas Derby last Saturday.

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?

Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.

Somnambulist wrote:In any other year I would likely dislike Always Dreaming but I don't really think that this year I do.

I've also been reading a lot of distrust about Irish War Cry. He is far from perfect but I'm just wondering who in this field you can trust. Girvin? At least he's consistent.

Hence went wide in that Oaklawn race but he was a no show at some point too. I feel like they all are. Who has the most legit excuse for a no show? Classic Empire?

Agreed on Always Dreaming, any other year he might feel like an easy toss but the unknown factor is too much to ignore this year. I honestly think Gunnevera is the most consistent horse in the field- his Florida Derby wasn't pretty on the surface, but he basically did what he always does: he dropped back and made a big late run, but he hit the rail and ended up much too far back off a pace that wasn't closer-friendly. He's run four stakes races in a row that were decent at the very least, which is I think more than any other horse in the field can say. Girvin feels like a horse that I shouldn't be comfortable ignoring, but he's tough to read based on only four races. Is he a slow horse who has benefited from good setups, or is he genuinely moving forward? Wish I knew.

Off the top of my head, I'd say McCracken had the best excuse, as he had an abbreviated preparation coupled with a tough trip in the Bluegrass. Not sure how much he can be expected to move forward in the Derby though, his trainer is known for it but I don't see much evidence that he's moved forward at 3 (I'm pretty suspicious of the Davis). Classic Empire was coming off a layoff and got caught wide in the Holy Bull but he did end up close to a very slow pace. Irish War Cry had the softest trip imaginable in that race then folded when forced to press next out, but then he pressed nicely in the Wood, except the field was bad and the track was biased towards speed... so many mixed messages that I just have no idea what to do with. I'm also worried about the fact that he is getting only one work before the Derby and it will be at Fair Hill. At 6-1 or thereabouts, is he worth the risk?

Probably a good move by the connections of Conquest Mo Money, he will be very live in the Preakness.

He was running on an abscessed foot. Per Casse when they found the abscess it was estimated it was already present in the Holy Bull. I think that's a pretty decent excuse.

I don't however, know what to make of the fact McCraken was apparently completely wiped and exhausted after the Blue Grass and that his trainer thinks it's a good thing, vs Classic Empire not being tired one bit and his trainers also thinking that's a very good thing. For two horses coming off a long layoff and seeking some foundation/fitness, which is it?