Killer Paydays

By Christopher Shea

Mortality jumps in the days after people receive a payment, whether the source is Social Security, a paycheck, or a one-time outlay like a tax refund, a new study finds. The source of death appears to be related to a burst of economic consumption, which usually involves more physical activity.

People who started receiving Social Security payments before May 1997 got their checks on the third of the month (and still do, if they’re alive). Using data from the National Center for Health Statistics, researchers analyzed the deaths of people 65 and over, from 1973 to 1996, including the causes. Daily mortality was about 0.5% higher the week after a payment than the week before. There were more heart-attack deaths, which can be stress-related, but not more cancer deaths.

For retirees who enrolled after May 1997, checks are mailed out a monthly schedule determined by birthdays. For these people, daily mortality rose 1% in the week after the checks arrived.

The researchers found similar—often larger–effects for military paychecks, the annual payment Alaskans receive from oil revenue, and the 2001 federal tax rebate. The evidence was mixed as whether post-payday deaths were offset by lower mortality at other times.

Only a small proportion of deaths, 8% in the case of Social Security, were due to drug overdoses, the researchers found. (The researchers explored this angle because other studies have found a link between federal transfer payments and drug overdoses.)

“The Short-Term Mortality Consequences of Income Receipt,” William N. Evans and Timothy J. Moore, Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming)