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March 29, 2013

Given below are a few articles on the paradigm changing decision to establish a Brics Bank outlining the architecture to counter US led West's domination and exploitation of the South including India post WWII and Bretton Woods.

The Brics leaders have come very strongly against the actions of NATO countries and the paragons of democracy and freedom led by GCC countries' twit gas island Qatar with Riyadh at the back .

Ankara whose ruling AKP , getting ever more Islamist and financed by Riyadh has messed up its foreign policy and is getting sucked into the Syrian quagmire .It has 25% unhappy Kurds ( who see autonomous Kurds in north Iraq ) Kurds also straddle along long Turkish Syrian border .Turkey also has 15% Alevis , similar in belief to the ruling Alawaite grouping with majority Sunni support in Syria ( they have seen what has happened in Libya after the regime change –by West -chaos and murders and division of the country )

Brics leaders have also warned the West ( look at the leaders of economically drowning UK and France with fate not much different awaiting them as in Cyprus ) on any foolish action on Iran .

It is possible that SCO might energise itself and even hold an exercise with Iran as it had done when US led regime changes had reached Kyrgyzstan in early 2000s. Now even the US puppet in Georgia has lost power .

There is a good piece on Chinese new boss extending hand of friendship to India (Washington will energise its spoons and pimps you see on India' corporate TV channels.

I have also added a piece by the ultra neoliberal Forbes, naturally cribbing about the Brics successful summit.

BRICS birth a new South-South revolution in Durban

March 28, 2013 Manish Chand, or RIR

The Durban summit will go down in history as a defining moment in the trajectory of the South-South cooperation and marked the maturation of the BRICS grouping.

In the balmy coastal city In the balmy coastal city of Durban which birthed the Gandhi revolution over a hundred years ago, the seeds of a new rejuvenated South-South movement have been sown, with the BRICS leaders launching a path-breaking Development Bank that seeks to uplift over three billion people in the developing and emerging world.

The two-day summit culminated with a unanimous decision by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to set up a BRICS-led Development Bank that will finance development and infrastructure development not just in emerging economies, but also in the larger global South.

In another important step to cement the intra-BRICS economic architecture, the leaders of the world's five emerging economies, which account for over a quarter of global GDP, also endorsed a $100-billion contingency reserve arrangement that will be deployed as a last resort in case of a serious crisis afflicting a BRICS country.

"We have decided to enter formal negotiations to establish a BRICS-led new development Bank based on our own considerable infrastructure needs, which amounts to around $4.5 trillion over the next five years, but also to cooperate with other emerging markets and developing countries in future," said South African President Jacob Zuma, the host of the 5th BRICS summit.

"Our resolve extends further to also establish a BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement. We are working towards related initiatives in our economic deliberations to further strengthen our intra-BRICS cooperation," he said.

The 5th BRICS summit has proved to be the most substantive one, with important headline-hogging outcomes that have the potential to create a new dialectics of development and geopolitics in the mutating international order.

Besides the bank and the contingency reserve arrangement, the summit also saw important steps in deepening the framework of intra-BRICS cooperation. These pivotal steps included the setting up of a 25-member BRICS Business Council and the BRICS Think Tanks Council that seeks to create new pathways of South-South economic cooperation.

For India, which took the lead in shaping the Development Bank, the fruition of the key ideas that flowed from the 2012 New Delhi summit was a moment of special pride and resonance.

"It gives me great satisfaction to note that one of the ideas that we first discussed at New Delhi, that of instituting a mechanism to recycle surplus savings into infrastructure investments in developing countries, has been given a concrete shape during the Durban Summit," said Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. "Our Finance Ministers will now work to develop the details of this project," he said.

The Indian prime minister underlined that the discussions at the Durban summit "demonstrated the similarity of our perspectives on many global issues, such as the situation in West Asia and efforts to rekindle global economic growth."

Talking to Indian journalists, India's Finance Minister P. Chidambaram explained key features of the Development Bank. "We (the finance ministers of the five countries) gave a big idea and that idea has now become a reality -- that is the BRICS development bank," Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told journalists here, soon after the conclusion of the plenary session on the second day of the two-day summit.

He added that the finance ministers and officials of the two countries have been given a 12-month time-frame to work out modalities like the capital of the proposed bank, its domicile and the governance structure.

"We should have a nearly complete document when the leaders meet again in Brazil next March," he added.

Delineating contours of the contingency reserve arrangement, Chidambaram said the bulk of the money, that is $41 billion, will be pledged by China, $18 billion each will come from India, Brazil and Russia, while South Africa has agreed to $5 billion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the decision to launch the Development Bank and made a robust pitch for accelerating multi-polarity in international relations.

Syria and Iran

The Durban summit ended on a high note, with all the leaders of the emerging economies reaffirming their political will to take intra-BRICS cooperation to new heights and to transform the grouping into a powerful platform for a counter-narrative on key international issues.

This was reflected in the BRICS strong position on Syria and the warning to the West against military adventurism in Iran.

"We express our deep concern with the deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation in Syria and condemn the increasing violations of human rights and of international humanitarian law as a result of continued violence," said the Declaration that was issued at the end of the first BRICS summit held on the African soil.

"We believe that the Joint Communiqué of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict," the declaration said. "In view of the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Syria, we call upon all parties to allow and facilitate immediate, safe, full and unimpeded access to humanitarian organisations to all in need of assistance. We urge all parties to ensure the safety of humanitarian workers."

Against the backdrop of the West-driven agenda of regime change in Syria, the BRICS leaders positioned the grouping as the voice of moderation and consensus-building.

"A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by the Geneva Joint Communiqué and appropriate UNSC resolutions," said the declaration.

"We support the efforts of the UN-League of Arab States Joint Special Representative," said the declaration.

In a clear warning to the West, leaders from emerging powers also voiced their opposition to threat of military action against Tehran, amid ominous noises emanating from the US and Israel that they will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. "We are concerned about threats of military action as well as unilateral sanctions," the BRICS leaders said at the end of a two-day summit.

"We are concerned about threats of military action as well as unilateral sanctions. We note the recent talks held in Almaty and hope that all outstanding issues relating to Iran's nuclear programme will be resolved through discussions and diplomatic means," said the declaration.

The sharp stand taken by BRICS on the situation in Syria and the Iranian nuclear programme underlines the transformation of a grouping that started off as a forum focused on mitigating the global financial slowdown, but has emerged as a powerful pressure group in international politics that advocates multi-polarity in international relations and multilateralism in resolving global peace and security issues.

The Durban summit will go down in history as a defining moment in the trajectory of the South-South cooperation and marked the maturation of a grouping that started off as a forum focused on global economic governance issues, but has widened its horizon to include an ambitious all-encompassing global agenda to rekindle development in the emerging world and reclaim the weight of the global South in the international arena.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief of India Writes www.indiawrites.org. He is in Durban to report and analyse issues and outcomes of the 5th BRICS summit.

DURBAN, South Africa, March 27 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping said here Wednesday that the world needs the common development of China and India and can provide sufficient room for the two neighbors' development.

Xi made the remarks during a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of a summit of BRICS countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- in the South African port city of Durban.

China and India, as the world's two largest developing nations, have a similar historic mission to boost their social and economic development, Xi said.

Both countries are in an important period of strategic opportunities, he said, adding that China-India relations have broad prospects for development.

China, which regards its ties with India as one of the most important bilateral relationship, commits itself to pushing forward the two countries' strategic cooperative partnership, Xi said.

He called on the two sides to maintain high-level reciprocal visits and contacts, make full use of political dialogues and consultations at various levels to strengthen strategic and political communication.

China and India should broaden exchanges and cooperation between their armed forces and deepen mutual military and security trust, Xi said.

The Chinese president said the two countries, with the help of such cooperative mechanisms as strategic and economic dialogue, should also discuss their cooperation on large-scale infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for enhancing people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, and broadening youth exchanges.

He said the two sides should strengthen coordination and cooperation within the United Nations, BRICS, the G20 and other multilateral groupings, support each other's participation in regional cooperation, and promote peace, stability and development in Asia.

On the border issue, Xi said China and India should improve and make good use of the mechanism of special representatives to strive for a fair, rational solution framework acceptable to both sides as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, he said, the two sides should continue to safeguard peace in their border areas and prevent the issue from affecting bilateral relations.

Singh expressed admiration for China's achievements in development, saying that developing good-neighborly and friendly relations with China and realizing common development along with China is a priority of the country's foreign policy.

India hopes to continue to maintain high-level exchanges, dialogue and communication with China, he added.

He also voiced the hope that the two countries would respect each other's core interests and major concerns, deepen mutual strategic trust, strengthen coordination and cooperation on international affairs, and safeguard peace and stability in the region and the world at large.

Singh said his country, which adheres to an independent foreign policy, will not be used as a tool to contain China, adding that India is willing to make concerted efforts with China to show the world that they are cooperative partners instead of rivals.

India will abide by political guidelines set by both sides and seek a solution to the bilateral border issue from a strategic height with a commitment to safeguard peace in their border areas, he said.

The Indian prime minister said his country recognizes the Tibet Autonomous Region is a part of the Chinese territory and that India will not allow Tibetans to conduct political activities against China in India.

Below is an expected write up in the Forbes magazine ,a line which Indian proxies will put out on India's Baniya controlled channels

The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and the latest addition to the BRIC acronym South Africa are meeting in that country's city of Durban this week following a string of new commitments between the countries.

One look and it's easy to see two things: China is the star of the show. And these countries have almost nothing in common.

Even China's Russia and India neighbors don't speak the same language. India and China have border disputes. Trade with Russia is geared towards the usual item: oil and gas.

On the deal side, China has been most active signing agreements pre-Durban.

For starters, Russia signed a long awaited deal with the Chinese military to sell 24 Sukhoi SU-35 multirole fighter planes and four electric-diesel submarines. South Africa signed agreements with China on Tuesday for construction of an oil refinery and upgrading the country's rail and port networks, mostly to ship commodities Eastward. China Development Bank said it will fund the modernization of South Africa's freight rail company Transnet for $5 billion, Bloomberg reported today. Then there's China and Brazil's $30 billion currency swap deal. As new as this may seem, ex-Premier Wen Jiabao promised this with Brazil last year at the Rio+20 environmental conference. Central Banks of Brazil and China are to hold each other's currency to pay for trade, sidestepping some dollar volatility.

Lastly, the much talked about BRIC Bank remains a flop heading into the Summit.

The fivesome cannot agree on their individual share of funding for a development bank geared towards building their economies. IT was a stickler last year and is again as each of these strange bedfellows come from disparate economic realities and have very different styles of government. They want to set up their own development bank to reduce their reliance on Western financial institutions.

Although many people don't realize this, Brazil's Development Bank, known as BNDES, has a larger loan portfolio than the World Bank. In 2010, BNDES disbursed a record R$168.4 billion, which is $84 billion given today's exchange rate. In 2010, the real was even stronger, so in dollar times, it was above $90 billion. By Comparison, the World Bank lent $44.2 billion. BNDES already lends to projects throughout Latin America, and is increasingly helping local multinationals tackle the rest of the world.

So these are the five countries meeting in Durban. Three commodities producers and two major commodities consumers, all trying to avoid the calamity of the Western world.

This is their fifth time meeting. And although some foreign policy watchers with a head for conspiracy theories might see this as an anti-American cartel, it is far from it. They are nothing more than political and economic opportunists who know what the U.S., Europe and Japan also know: the growth of the world is coming from emerging markets. These are some of the biggest, if not most politically motivated.

The theme of this year's summit is: BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Development, Integration and Industrialization.

Another agreement was reportedly inked between South Africa and Russia, whereas South Africa will service hundreds of Russian-made helicopters operating in sub-Saharan Africa at a facility in Johannesburg run by state-owned Denel Aviation Company, Shanghai Daily reported today. The service center will also train helicopter technicians and pilots, helping increase helicopter engineering talent in Africa.

In September 2006, four original BRIC nations met in New York. On May 16, 2008, Yekaterinburg, Russia hosted a full-scale diplomatic meeting.

In June 2009, Brazil, Russia, India and China again met in Yekaterinburg.

Early steps were taken to end dollar supremacy. Eventual plans may replace it with a global currency or basket of major ones.

In 2010, South Africa joined the BRIC alliance. It was formally invited to do so. The group was renamed BRICS. Annual summits are held.

On March 26 and 27, Durban, South Africa hosted the group's fifth one. More on that below.

Their "mechanism aims to achieve peace, security, development and cooperation. It also seeks to contribute significantly to the development of humanity and establish a more equitable and fair world."

America's economic supremacy is declining. BRICS countries are some of the world's fastest growing.

They comprise a significant economic and political block. They account for over 20% of world GDP.

They're on three continents. They cover more than one-fourth of the world's land mass.

Their population exceeds 2.8 billion. It's 40% of the world total. By 2020 or earlier, China may become the world's largest economy.

By mid-century or sooner, India's predicted to be number three, Brazil number five and Russia number six.

Between 2000 and 2008, BRICS contributed about half of global growth. In the late 1990s, Russia's debt default and Brazil's currency crisis rocked world economies. Today they have vast foreign exchange reserves.

BRICS have more global trade than America. China's the world's largest exporter. India's an information technology powerhouse.

Brazil's a dominant agricultural exporter. It's highly competitive. It has vast amounts of fertile land. It's known as "the world's biggest farm." Russia is oil and gas rich.

"We have agreed to establish the new development bank. The initial capital contribution to the bank should be substantial and sufficient for the bank to be effective in financing infrastructure."

Ahead of the summit, officials said each country may contribute $10 billion for starters. It's aim is to fund infrastructure and other development projects.

It'll operate separately from Western international lending agencies. It'll challenge their global dominance. It'll test how they do business. They prioritize neoliberal harshness.

It includes privatizing state enterprises, selling them at a fraction of their worth, mass layoffs, deregulation, deep social spending cuts, wage freezes or cuts, unrestricted market access for Western corporations, business-friendly tax cuts, trade unionism marginalized or crushed, and harsh recrimination against non-believers.

It strip mines nations for profit. It shifts wealth from public to private hands. It destroys middle class societies. It turns workers into serfs.

It substitutes debt peonage for freedom. A race to the bottom follows. An elite few benefit at the expense of most others. It sacrifices economic growth for private gain. It's the worst of all possible worlds. Nations are transformed into dystopian backwaters.

BRICS have other ideas in mind. They seek a multipolar world. Much work remains to be done. Agreement on details must be finalized. It'll take time to begin operations.

It'll be a second alternative to Western debt bondage. In December 2006, Hugo Chavez proposed a Bank of the South (Banco del Sur).

A November 2007 summit launched it. In September 2009, it was established. Its members include Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay. Plans are to increase initial capitalization.

Member countries pledge to contribute. Full operations are expected to begin later this year. At issue is representing the needs of the South. It'll contribute to its development. It'll do so free from debt bondage.

BRICS Development Bank intends no one country to dominate. Voting rights will reflect equality. Economic growth matters most.

It remains to be seen how plans unfold. Hopefully global changes for the better will follow. They're long overdue. Dominant emerging economies will play leading roles. They're laying the groundwork to do so.

The PLA Daily of March 29,2013, has carried the following report on the bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the margins of the BRICS summit at Durban on March 27.

DURBAN, South Africa, March 27 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping said here Wednesday that the world needs the common development of China and India and can provide sufficient room for the two neighbors' development.

Xi made the remarks during a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of a summit of BRICS countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- in the South African port city of Durban.

China and India, as the world's two largest developing nations, have a similar historic mission to boost their social and economic development, Xi said.

Both countries are in an important period of strategic opportunities, he said, adding that China-India relations have broad prospects for development.

China, which regards its ties with India as one of the most important bilateral relationship, commits itself to pushing forward the two countries' strategic cooperative partnership, Xi said.

He called on the two sides to maintain high-level reciprocal visits and contacts, make full use of political dialogues and consultations at various levels to strengthen strategic and political communication.

China and India should broaden exchanges and cooperation between their armed forces and deepen mutual military and security trust, Xi said.

The Chinese president said the two countries, with the help of such cooperative mechanisms as strategic and economic dialogue, should also discuss their cooperation on large-scale infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for enhancing people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, and broadening youth exchanges.

He said the two sides should strengthen coordination and cooperation within the United Nations, BRICS, the G20 and other multilateral groupings, support each other's participation in regional cooperation, and promote peace, stability and development in Asia.

On the border issue, Xi said China and India should improve and make good use of the mechanism of special representatives to strive for a fair, rational solution framework acceptable to both sides as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, he said, the two sides should continue to safeguard peace in their border areas and prevent the issue from affecting bilateral relations.

Singh expressed admiration for China's achievements in development, saying that developing good-neighborly and friendly relations with China and realizing common development along with China is a priority of the country's foreign policy.

India hopes to continue to maintain high-level exchanges, dialogue and communication with China, he added.

He also voiced the hope that the two countries would respect each other's core interests and major concerns, deepen mutual strategic trust, strengthen coordination and cooperation on international affairs, and safeguard peace and stability in the region and the world at large.

Singh said his country, which adheres to an independent foreign policy, will not be used as a tool to contain China, adding that India is willing to make concerted efforts with China to show the world that they are cooperative partners instead of rivals.

India will abide by political guidelines set by both sides and seek a solution to the bilateral border issue from a strategic height with a commitment to safeguard peace in their border areas, he said.

The Indian prime minister said his country recognizes the Tibet Autonomous Region is a part of the Chinese territory and that India will not allow Tibetans to conduct political activities against China in India.

2. As this writer has been pointing out in the past, there are nuances in Chinese references to its territorial disputes with India and with some ASEAN countries and Japan in the South and East China Seas.

3.While China continues to project its maritime disputes as its "core interests" not permitting any compromise, it projects its dispute with India as calling for a mutually acceptable solution.

4.This comes out once again in the PLA Daily's report on the talks between the Prime Minister and Mr.Xi. It says: "On the border issue, Xi said China and India should improve and make good use of the mechanism of special representatives to strive for a fair, rational solution framework acceptable to both sides as soon as possible.Meanwhile, he said, the two sides should continue to safeguard peace in their border areas and prevent the issue from affecting bilateral relations"

5.The Chinese formulation is more or less the same as in the past except significantly its reference to finding a solution " as soon as possible." Past Chinese formulations used to refer to the border dispute as a complex historical legacy which will require time to solve. The need for a solution "as soon as possible" is stressed now. It is not yet clear as to why this change.

6.If the PLA Daily's references to our Prime Minister's assurances on Tibet are correct, one would wonder what was the need for us to take the initiative in raising this on our own when China continues to maintain a silence on our core concerns regarding its increasing presence in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltisan and in Gwadar and regarding its continuing nuclear supply relationship with Pakistan.( 29-3-13)

March 27, 2013

The Indian navy is prepared to deploy vessels to the South China Sea to protect India's oil interests there, the navy chief said on Monday amid growing international fears over the potential for naval clashes in the disputed region.

India has sparred diplomatically with China in the past over its gas and oil exploration block off the coast of Vietnam. China claims virtually the entire mineral-rich South China Sea and has stepped up its military presence there. Other nations such as Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia have competing claims.

Indian state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has a stake in a gas field in the Nam Con Son basin, off Vietnam's south coast.

Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K Joshi said while India was not a claimant in the dispute over territorial rights in the South China Sea, it was prepared to act, if necessary, to protect its maritime and economic interests in the region.

"When the requirement is there, for example, in situations where our country's interests are involved, for example ONGC ... we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that," Joshi told a news conference.

"Now, are we preparing for it? Are we having exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes," he said.

He described the modernization of China's navy as "truly impressive" and acknowledged that it was a source of major concern for India.

Any display of naval assertiveness by India in the South China Sea would likely fuel concern that the navies of the two rapidly growing Asian giants could be on a collision course as they seek to protect trade routes and lock in the supply of coal, minerals and other raw material from foreign sources.

"It is one of the most important international waterways and freedom of navigation there is an issue of utmost concern to India because a large portion of India's trade is through the South China Sea," said Brahma Chellaney, analyst at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.

Chellaney, however, played down Joshi's comments, saying the Indian navy's focus would remain on the Indian Ocean, which the Asian nation views as its strategic backyard.

March 26, 2013

Three days after presenting Budget 20114, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram wondered why Indian companies, both public sector undertakings (PSUs) as well as private enterprises, were not investing. “PSUs are sitting on piles of cash, private business houses are also sitting on piles of cash. I am in constant touch with bankers. While some enquiries have begun to come to bankers, I am told there is not a flood of enquiries.”

The Finance Minister’s wonderment reminds me of Ghalib’s famous couplet: Is saadgi pe kaun na mar jaaye ai khuda/ladte hain aur haath mein talwar bhi nahin (Who would not be floored by the simplicity of my beloved’s panache, Oh Lord/She fights and she doesn’t even have a sword in her hand). For it is clear why companies are not investing in India: the Congress-led government has fostered rules, regulations, myths, mindsets, and activists that are manifestly anti-business. And, of course, corruption has scaled new peaks.

So, according to an expert estimate, PSUs alone have investible surplus of Rs 2.5 lakh crore, of which Coal India has got Rs 60,000 crore. If the government is not able to coerce even PSUs, it has much less chance of coaxing business tycoons invest in the country.

But the equally big problem is that even if the finance ministry and other UPA functionaries who are said to be pro-reforms are able to convince the captains of industry to play ball, chances are that the projects would get stuck somewhere on the way to completion. According to a news report in The Times Of India (March 21), “Projects worth over Rs 7 lakh crore—which is equivalent to almost half the government spending in the current financial year—are held up in the absence of environmental and forest clearances, land and fuel, putting strain on the creaky infrastructure in the country and becoming an obstacle for an economy striving to get into a high growth trajectory.”

The report is based on the data compiled by state-run banks; “the amount is locked up in 215 projects spread across power, roads, ports, cement and steel, each with an estimated cost of Rs 250 crore or more. Any delay will push up the overall cost of setting up the projects, bankers said. It also increases the risk for the public sector banks, which have already disbursed loans amounting to Rs 54,000 crore.”

The worst hit is the power sector, with projects worth Rs 5.39 lakh crore languishing; Rs 1.23 lakh crore are stuck in roads and over Rs 32,500 crore in steel. This is as amazing as it is depressing in a country which desperately needs improvement in infrastructure. Policy grandees have emphasized the important of infrastructure on so many occasions. There is even a Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure (CCI). The result, though, is (to paraphrase Churchill) a big cipher, wrapped in officialese, inside pompous claptrap.

Even HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh, who is very close to the Establishment, told The Economic Times(March 31), “I do not see Indian or foreign companies making large investments. The Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure has not acted as fast as expected.”

Max India chairman Analjit Singh was more precise: “On the one hand, there are segments/ministries of government which are very keen to promote business and investment; on the other, there are departments and individuals who get a perverse pleasure in harassing industry and sabotaging growth plans.”

Singh has hit the nail on the head. The individuals he mentioned are Left-leaning activists who (doctrinally) regard private enterprise as evil which needs to be combated at any cost. They also man many government organs—the most notorious of them being the Ministry of Environment.

Moreover, their antics are of great use for the venal: the hurdles they put in the path of businessmen are removed at considerable cost. So, while the pleasure is perverse for some, it is pecuniary for others. And those who raise their voice against the hurdles are dubbed as stooges of Big Business by the politician-intellectual complex.
India, meanwhile, wonders what would restore the 8% growth.

As the Obama administration seeks to "responsibly withdraw" from Afghanistan by 2014, it must also retool its policy toward a more strategically important, nuclear-armed, and volatile Pakistan. Given U.S. engagement and leverage with Pakistan will only further decline, and its current single digit approval rating in Pakistan, it needs all the help it can get to contain a hydra of militant groups from tearing Pakistan apart or triggering a war with India. To the extent that external actors have a role to play in Pakistan's internal stability - the onus, after all, lies with its own leadership - the United States might find the most unlikely of partners in Pakistan's northern neighbor and "all-weather friend:" China.

Sino-Pakistan relations have consisted of four phases. After diplomatic ties were established in 1951, relations cooled as Pakistan sided with the United States against seating China in the United Nations. The 1962 Sino-Indian war and 1963 Sino-Pak boundary agreement cemented ties against a common adversary; China became and remains a vital source of military and nuclear technology for Pakistan. In the late eighties, a thaw in Sino-Indian ties - trade between the two rising economic giants is now six times that between China and Pakistan - and the spread of militancy into China's restive Xinjiang region from Pakistan diluted the relationship. Since 9/11, Chinese concerns about Pakistan's stability have only deepened with attacks on some of the 13,000 Chinese workers living in Pakistan.

Three lessons for the United States emerge from this narrative.

First, while China remains committed to Pakistan, especially to balance India, its position on Indo-Pak relations has shifted. From threatening intervention in the 1965 Indo-Pak war to former President Jiang Zemin urging the Pakistani Parliament to put Kashmir on the back burner and focus on development in the nineties, to the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister engaging in unprecedented shuttle diplomacy following the 2008 Mumbai attacks that nearly brought both sides to war, China is emerging as a key crisis-manager in South Asia - in large part to maintain regional stability for its own economic growth.

Second, despite these shifts, China retains a high favorability rating in Pakistan at 90%. Underpinning this credibility is China's perceived unstinting support vis a vis India and economic assistance, generally in the form of soft loans with no grating conditionalities, that have resulted in a range of prominent infrastructure and defense-related projects in Pakistan.

Third, China is increasingly focused westward. Since 2000, China's "Go West" policy has sought to tackle underdevelopment in its vast western regions, including Xinjiang. Pakistan can potentially provide an outbound route for goods from Xinjiang and an inbound maritime route through its struggling Gwadar port for an increasingly Persian Gulf-oil dependent China. Similarly, an influential essay titled "Marching West" making the rounds in China's policy circles argues for expanding ties with China's western neighbors. In contrast to a tense Pacific, China's west, the essay contends, is also fertile ground for Sino-U.S. cooperation, including in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Given China's potential crisis-manager role in South Asia, its standing in Pakistan, and its concerns about militancy therein, China and U.S. interests seem to converge. This runs askance of the "string of pearls" theory that views Pakistan as a central element in China's evolving grand strategy in the Indian Ocean, potentially to U.S. detriment. Consider, however, the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 report. In one of four scenarios for the future of geopolitics it outlines, the optimal one is a "fusion" of Sino-U.S. interests - sparked by their jointly defusing a looming war between Pakistan and India.

Operationalizing this convergence will not be easy. The Chinese have less reason to press Pakistan on militancy given its forthcoming assistance in clamping down on the group of greatest concern to Beijing: the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. Here, the United States must flag to the Chinese the risk of "mission creep" by other more sophisticated militant groups based in Pakistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba, a lethal terrorist group that has primarily targeted India, has also noted the mistreatment of Chinese Muslims in its manifesto, "Why We Wage Jihad." On Indo-Pak relations, China's role is complicated by its balancing strategy; border tensions with India; and Pakistan having ceded a portion of the disputed Kashmir territory to China in their 1963 boundary agreement over Indian objections, technically making China a party to the Kashmir dispute. Indeed, India strongly opposes Chinese involvement in South Asia, including a mere reference to U.S.-China cooperation in the region in a 2009 joint statement. However, its view might change if it perceived China to be playing a stabilizing role.

Despite a crowded agenda, the United States and China must think boldly at the highest levels about their strategic convergence in Pakistan. The administration should encourage Beijing to host the next meeting of the Friends of a Democratic Pakistan - revitalizing the group and widening China's role as a stakeholder in Pakistan. The process of putting together and hosting the meeting may nudge Beijing to more broadly assess its interests and exposure in Pakistan as U.S. engagement in the region scales back. Additionally, both sides should quietly consider a crisis-management and coordination mechanism on Pakistan - one that will require the State Department to think across traditionally siloed regional Bureaus.

A final lesson from history: citing Pakistan's pivotal backchannel role in the normalization of Sino-US relations, Premier Zhou En Lai subsequently remarked to Henry Kissinger that "the bridge that helped them cross (the divide)" must not be forgotten. As the Obama administration scales back in South Asia and rebalances to the Asia-Pacific, navigating new chasms with a rising China, Pakistan might yet again serve as a bridge.

Ziad Haider is an attorney at White & Case LLP and Co-Director of the Truman National Security Project's Asia Expert Group. He served as a White House Fellow in the US Department of Justice and a national security aide in the US Senate. Follow him on Twitter: @Asia_Hand.

WASHINGTON D.C -- Dr. Wahid Baloch, President of Balochistan National Congress (BNC), Washington D.C Chapter, welcomed Baloch leader Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal's return to Balochistan and asked all other exiled Baloch leaders to follow his lead and return to Balochistan and be among their own people to lead and organize them instead of being apart, useless and non-functional in exile.

"Those who are making Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal's return a big deal and are in hue and cry are less worried about Baochistan and more worried about their personal and political vendetta", said Dr. Wahid Baloch.

"I hope Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal will consider taking part in the upcoming elections for the greater interest of Balochistan and Baloch nation," he said.

He said, Baloch must take part in election, as boycotting them will only help the Baloch enemies to impose their writ and agenda on Baloch people and help them and their agents, opportunists, drug dealers and JUI extremists to take over the Baloch assemblies and represent themselves as the "elected Baloch leaders", to not only fool the world but also to cause more harm to Baloch people. Assemblies, though powerless or rubber stamped' can and should be used as tools to counter the games of establishment to politically marginalize and alienate Baloch people and to continue their loot and plunder of Baloch resources through their agents without being challenged.

All the Baloch parliamentarian should work in unity to promote the Genuine Baloch demands within the federation", he said.

"Balochistan is bleeding and anything that can be done to save Baloch lives, secure Balochistan and it's coasts and resources for Baloch people must be done with unity, through strategic planing and wisdom," he continued.

He asked Saradar Akhtar Jan to include the BNC 14 point in their election agenda and take all Baloch stakeholders into confidence and on board in order to steer Balochistan out of this crisis and looming civil war.

He said a lot of innocent Baloch blood has been shed and Baloch people are sick and tired of collecting bullet riddle mutilated tortured dead bodies of their loved one every day. "It has to stop now"' he said.

He said Baloch should shun this so called war of independence that is being imposed upon them by Baloch enemies so that they can use this as a pretext to eliminate the Baloch intelligentsia and leadership so that they can continue the loot and plunder of Baloch resources without being challenged or stopped.

He said, instead of shouting for freedom, Baloch should unite on a single democratic platform and work within the Pakistani federation to safeguard their rights, including the right of self-determination by using all democratic and peaceful means of struggle.

He said, Baloch are weak and divided and they have no international support. The International community have not only ignored the Baloch killings, disappearances and genocide but their criminal silence have added to the sufferings and misery of Baloch people . Therefore, it is befitting that we should not be suicidal and follow any fancy and emotional slogan.

He said freedom is priceless, but without proper resources and International support Balochistan can not be free by empty emotional slogans and hungry stomach.

He said, Baloch must come out of the closet of their fancy dream world and be realistic. A war of independence can not be fought and won merely on emotional slogans and fancy dreams of Azadee. It is time to change the course and re-think of a new strategy based upon facts and ground realities not just on fancy emotional slogans and dreams. We must not get our youths killed unnecessarily without providing them protection and security. Instead, we should save them for the future challenges, educate them and help them to support their families. Those who are pushing Baloch youths into this suicidal war are equally responsible of their killings.

He said," Balochistan is going though its critical time in its history and the only way it can be saved and secured is by joining hands together instead of opposing each-other or putting each-other down".

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The Balochistan National Congress (BNC) 14 points:

Military operation must end unconditionally and immediately.

All those Baloch who have been forcibly disappeared by FC and are missing must be released and allowed to re-join with their family members and law-enforcement officers, including military officers, who broke the law or committed crimes against Baloch citizens must be brought to justice.

Hefty and direct compensation in a transparent mode to the families of all those who got killed, kidnapped and tortured.

Homeless IDP's must be returned to their hearth and home with honor and dignity, rehabilitated and compensated.

The mostly Pashtun-based Frontier Corps, which have intentionally been deployed to create bad blood between the Baloch and Pashtuns, must be removed from all Baloch cities and towns in Balochistan and replaced by local Balochs; all the FC check post should be dismantled in Balochistan; the Pastun-based Frontier Corps should be deployed along the Afghan border in Pashtun areas.

All Afghan refugees living in Balochistan must be returned back to Afghanistan and their names removed from the voter registration lists.

The historic territorial integrity and demography of Balochistan, land of the Baloch, must not be changed.

Balochistan’s boundaries to be re-drawn based on historical, ethnic and linguistic line and all Pashtun areas of Balochistan should be joined with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur must be added back to Balochistan.

Gwadar port and Balochistan's natural resources must be used to uplift the Baloch people.

Baloch secular national identity and culture must be honored, preserved, restored and respected.

Balochi language must be declared Balochistan's primary language of learning.

Baloch, especially the ordinary middle classes, must be well represented at all the federal level and in foreign services to remove their sense of deprivation and alienation to make them feel as counted citizens.

Pakistan should be re-named as the United States of Pakistan (USP) and be declared as a federation of four autonomous individual States, Viz,Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Pakhtunkhwa, where all federating units should be treated and represented equally in all federal departments,including the armed forces and foreign services.

Center should only keep the defense, currency and foreign affairs and all other departments, including the foreign trade, taxation and Communication, should be given to the federating units with full autonomy. Every federating unit should be allowed to take care of their internal security apparatus according to their needs and resources and all federating units should be free to promote their National identity, language, culture and traditions without any fear, intimidation or coercing.

In order to bring peace and harmony in Pakistan, an atmosphere of friendship, co-operation, tolerance, mutual respect, understanding and accommodation among all nationalities in Pakistan should be promoted, supported and encouraged. The terrorism, religious extremism and violence should be denounced in its all forms and shapes.

What’s the focus of the Defense and Strategic Studies Program at the United States Military Academy? What is your role?
The Defense and Strategic Studies Program is an academic major in the Department of Military Instruction at the United States Military Academy, West Point. It is a multi-disciplinary major where our cadets are challenged to apply history, policy, and theory; frame complex strategic problems; and generate viable and innovative solutions to contemporary military problems. I am an academic instructor and course director for "DS385: Sustaining the Force." In DS385 we look at a country's ability to Generate, Transport, Sustain, and Reallocate/Redeploy its fighting forces as a factor of military, and thus national, power. This includes historical and contemporary studies of military logistics at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of war. This position is one of many that Army officers can apply for after their company command. I served in Baghdad, Iraq as a Platoon Leader in 2005 and as a planner and company commander in 2007-08. The Army then sent me to get my Masters Degree at the University of Kentucky’s Patterson School of Diplomacy in preparation for this assignment. It’s worth pointing out here that as a U.S. Army Armor Officer - not a logistician or aviation officer – I must emphasise that all of my contributions to the Gulf Military Helicopter Conference are academic and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of the United States Military Academy, the U.S. Army, or the U.S. Department of Defense.

Could you please discuss and summarise your thoughts on the use of Cargo UAVs for the U.S. Army? What are the pros and cons?

The last 11 years of combat have forced the US military to consider a number of new technologies and systems. While tactics revolving around counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism gain a lot of attention, logistics considerations can often go underappreciated, and therefore under-analysed. Although unmanned technological integration is currently popular, it is not sensible for the Army to pursue a supply-oriented UAV when the funds for such a project could be used to augment current rotary-wing assets. Recent accolades for the United States Marine Corps’ use of Lockheed Martin’s K-MAX optionally-manned helicopter are, in my opinion, overblown, and fall short from legitimating widespread acquisition of the platform, or concept.

There are certainly pros and cons on both sides of the argument. Some argue that every load a cargo UAV carries reduces ground convoys that are vulnerable to threats inherent in modern warfare. Further, the current Syrian conflict has shown the vulnerability of cargo helicopters in the face of hybrid threats. Taking the pilot out of harm’s way when supplies are being moved across the battlefield seems to be a good idea. Finally, UAVs could alleviate the pilot rest cycle for aviation units, especially given that autonomous flight and tethering may be future capabilities.

My skepticism is rooted mainly in organisational issues. In order to carry loads that are meaningful in the resupply mission, the size of the craft will ultimately lack the flexibility found in reconnaissance UAVs, such as the Shadow. The large aircraft (the KMAX is as big as an AH-64 Apache) have requisite service personnel and maintenance that demand protected maintenance facilities. Furthermore, delivery accuracy assumes the existence of trained crews to be on the ground where the supplies are being delivered. One study on the topic implies that six crews are needed for each UAV. This would represent a significant increase in manpower in the “tail’ of the force for a capability that has a marginal net benefit. I say this with all due respect to those logisticians

A closing thought for those who argue that the U.S. Army should adopt these platforms. It is important to consider that no pilot is endangered when one of these choppers crashes or is shot down. One cannot forget, however, that the sensitive nature of the equipment on the UAV will still require an extensive recovery process, ground forces approaching a known objective. This should limit the argument that their use eliminates all risk. I look forward to discussing the concept with true aviators and members of the industry.

What about the drawdown from Afghanistan next year - could the logistics challenge there be aided with improvements to current rotary cargo aircraft?

I think that the reverse logistics of wide area security operations in terrain like Afghanistan places uniquely strenuous demands on rotary airlift units. It is easy enough to drop tonnage from fixed wing assets in large quantities, but when the equipment and personnel have to be extracted, rotary wing lift is critical. As the strength of the force reduces, it will be that much more difficult to secure the ground lines of communications. This brings up another point about the Cargo UAV problem. While transferring cargo and equipment between larger Forward/Main Operating Bases (FOBs) seems feasible, there would be significant additional requirements to allow cargo to be lifted by UAVs out of the smaller Combat Outposts (COPs) like those in Afghanistan.

Most importantly, I believe that the apparent direction modern warfare demands robust tactical airlift capabilities within modern forces. Manned, rotary, cargo lift provides flexibility and operational options to ground force commanders as they face the prospect of hybrid threats, a lack of a rear area, and dilapidated infrastructure.

What are you hoping to get out of the Gulf Military Helicopter conference? What will make it a successful conference for you?

As a professional officer, I look forward to this opportunity to learn. What better way than to do so from service members from so many different countries in the phenomenal setting of the Armed Forces Officers’ Club in the UAE? This experience can only make me a better officer. I hope that my presentation will contribute to any dialogue surrounding the testing, acquisition, and fielding of cargo UAVs. Moreover, I hope to generate discussion about helicopters’ roles in military logistics. I teach my cadets at West Point that military logistics, a country’s ability to generate-transport-sustain-redeploy its armed forces, is a key factor of military power, and therefore national power. The presence of organic cargo helicopters can therefore, in the words of Colin Gray, be the arbiter of military strategies.

Lieutenant Colonel Stefan Wilson is the Head of Air Operations, J3 at the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters. He was the commander of the first of two Swedish units sent during Operation Unified Protector (OUP) in Libya. Defence IQ recently spoke to Lt Col Wilson about his experience in Libya and how the operation is shaping Sweden’s outlook on acting in future missions.

“One must bear in mind that it was almost 50 years ago since Sweden last participated in a live operation with fighter aircraft [the Congo crisis during the 1960s],” said Lt Col Wilson.“I think that the speed in which we deployed to Italy, which was just 23 hours after the Swedish parliament made its decision, was quite fast. As a non-NATO country Sweden did not have access to NATO secret systems and it took weeks or even months to get that. But despite the set-backs we declared Initial Operational Capability (IOC) after just one week, which during those conditions, was impressive.”

Notwithstanding the complex operational environment and difficult command structure of OUP, Lt Col Wilson listed a number of the key lessons that he took away from the mission. These included: Interoperability on a technical level, with communications and the use of link 16, as well as on the procedure and documentation side; establishing and maintaining a clear chain of command; always ensure you retain an expeditionary mind set; and the understanding that live training exercises both domestically and in collaboration with other nations are essential – tactical evaluation (TACEVAL) of exercises such as Loyal Arrow and Joint Warrior should not be forgotten.

“Regarding operational efficiency and interoperability with other nations Sweden is still participating in international exercises. During this past January and February, eight JAS 39 Gripen from Blekinge wing participated in Red Flag -2 2013. Furthermore, this week Sweden is hosting an exercise in the northern part of Sweden with fighters from both Norway and Finland participating. This is just a few examples of how Sweden maintains and even improves its capabilities in regards to interoperability.”

Considering Sweden’s future fighter capabilities, Lt Col Wilson said that the Swedish government have ordered 60 new JAS 39 Gripen (also known as the E/F version) and that over the next few years will also integrate the GBU 39 (a small diameter bomb) and the new BVR missile (Meteor) to the JAS 39 Gripen system.

The Gripen has been a true success story. I asked if that had played the key role in the rise of the Nordic region as a heavyweight in the fighter aircraft sector. The announcement of the first ever Fighter Nordic conference in May is surely testament to that?

“In Operation Unified Protector, Denmark and Norway also participated with their fighters. At Sigonella NAS we had a very good cooperation with the Danish unit – that collaboration was one of the reasons why we could declare IOC so early.
“I therefore think that all three countries together, not the Swedish Gripen by itself, has led to the Nordic rise that you are referring to.”

March 25, 2013

Despite the serious death threat from Taliban against his life and looming assassination charges of Benazir Bhutto and Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, hanging on over his head, Mush landed in Karachi wearing a bullet proof jacket under his shirt (see Photo), in tight security provided by his military men with rent-a- crowd paid supporters to show that he is not a wanted fugitive man but a popular politician who can steer the country out of its problems and save Pakistan form collapsing and failure.

The purpose of his return is clear and that is to give 'Mush card' also a chance.

Since the Pakistan's military is not in a position to attempt a military coup to take over, (as they did that so many times in the past), because, this time it will be a suicidal adventure if they try to do so as this will not only destabilize the already fragile Pakistan but it will also send the entire country into an ugly civil war, anarchy and complete collapse that the country can not afford and could never recover from.

So, therefore, the military and it's ISI are looking into other options, like the Plan B, which is to use it's proxy political parties, like Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (TIP) of cricketer-turn-politician Mr. Imran Khan, Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) of the Cleric in the container Mr. Mullah Tahir-ul Qadri, Pro-Taliban extremist groups like Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), Jamit-Islam (JI), Defa-e-Pakista- Council (DPC), a coalitions of 40 Islamic extremist group formed and headed by ISI man JuD chief Hafiz Saeed, the most wanted terrorist of US and Indian Governments, and the PML (Q) of Mush to Plant them through bogus votes and election drama to fool the world and insted of being in the front seat, run the country's affairs through these proxy puppets to give this whole thing a civilian face so that the world community accept it and do business with it as usual.

In this regard, Mush, an ex-military Gen of their own can make the best acceptable candidate and trustworthy man for the military and it's ISI to give the 'Mush card' a chance.

All these ISI cards, (TIP, PAT, JUI-F, JI, DPC, JuD, MQM and Mush card) are on the table to make sure one or more of these military's proxy political parties win the upcoming election to out number the PPP and PML (N), the two major parties in Pakistan whom's leaders relationship with Pakistan's military are not good.

The game is on and only the time will tell how the Pakistan's military and it's ISI will manipulate the elections and who they will declare as winner through the bogus and fraudulent votes. Let's wait and see.

Anti-Muslim rumours projecting Muslims negatively have spread to Rangoon from Meikhtila which has been placed under a State of Emergency following three days of Buddhist-Muslim clashes last week.

2.While no fresh fatalities have been reported from Meikhtila, there have been reports of fresh attacks on mosques and Muslim-owned properties in the villages and townships around Meikhtila.

3. There have been reports of fear among the Muslima of Rangoon, many of them of Indian origin, following circulation of rumours regarding possible attacks on Muslims and their properties there. The Myanmar Government has placed security forces in Rangoon in a state of alert. There have been no violent incidents so far.

4. Muslims suspect that the attacks on Muslims and the rumours are being instigated by anti-reform elements in the Army to discredit President TheinSein and Aung San SuuKyi.

5.The privately-owned Irrawaddy Journal has reported as follows: " Fear gripped Rangoon's Muslim communities on Sunday night after reports and rumors began to emerge that groups of rioters were planning to attack their neighborhoods. Muslim residents reacted by closing shops and holding nighttime patrols, but eventually there were few incidents in Burma's biggest city.

"Over the weekend the violence directed at Islamic communities spread southward through Mandalay Division from Meikhtila Township, where 8,000 Muslims were displaced and dozens of people were killed after violence erupted last Wednesday.

"Some Islamic leaders and Burmese activists now allege that the rapidly spreading communal violence—which appears to pit Buddhists against Muslims—is in fact being incited by outside interests.

"On Sunday night, reports and rumors that groups of anti-Muslim rioters were on their way to Muslim neighborhoods in central Rangoon first began to appear. Around midnight an unidentified group allegedly tried to set fire to buildings in Ma U Gone, a Muslim quarter in Tamwe Township, according to local resident Tha Aye.

"It was near midnight, around seven or eight people came in a van and tried to set buildings on fire. When people tried to catch them they ran away," said Tha Aye, who is also chairman of the Union National Development Party, an Islamic political organization.

"They threw [Molotov cocktails] at a mosque but it was in vain," he said, adding that the attackers revisited the area more than one hour later, but they were chased away by residents who carried knives and sticks.

'News of the incident quickly reached other Islamic communities who formed vigilante groups to patrol the streets, according to Aye Lwin, a Muslim representative from Burma's Interfaith Friendship Organization.

'At around 3 am Monday morning Muslim crowds could be heard chanting 'God is Great' as they marched through central Rangoon's Pabedan Township.

'Residents of MingalarTaungNyunt Township, a predominantly Muslim market area, were also on alert after they received repeated anonymous phone calls on Sunday night, saying that the area would be the target of mobs.

'Businesses in the area remained closed during a visit by a reporter on Monday. "We want the government to help stop these rumors and reassure the community's safety," local community leader KhinHlaing said.

'Some Muslim leaders believed that the violence directed at their communities was being orchestrated by outsiders. "In my opinion, a group of people is trying to instigate public unrest by targeting Muslim people," Aye Lwin said.

'"Tha Aye alleged that elements in the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party were involved in the supposed organization of the anti-Muslim riots, adding that they wanted to hinder President TheinSein's political and socio-economic reform agenda."

6.Our security agencies should step up online monitoring to prevent dissemination of morphed images of the violence by extremist elements as happened last year after the violent incidents in the Rakhine State.( 26-3-13)

March 24, 2013

A Pakistani fertilizer maker whose chemicals have been used in 80 percent of the roadside bombs that have killed and maimed American troops in Afghanistan is now seeking U.S. taxpayer subsidies in order to open a factory in Indiana.

The request appears to be on hold pending further review, but the situation has stirred outrage in Congress, where some accuse the Pakistani government of halting efforts to clamp down on the bomb-making.

For the past seven years, the U.S. government has known that the raw material calcium ammonium nitrate, or CAN, is making its way across the border into Afghanistan where the Taliban use it to fuel their most deadly weapons, namely the improvised explosive device. IEDs have long been the number one killer of U.S. and coalition troops.

The material largely comes from Pakistani fertilizer maker the Fatima Group. But the Pakistani government has stymied attempts by the Pentagon to stop the flow of the fertilizer used in these homemade bombs, according to the director of military Joint IED Defeat Organization, Lt. Gen. Michael Barbero.

"The producers within Pakistan have been less than cooperative," Barbero told a congressional committee late last year. "Despite making minor packaging, tracking and marketing changes, they have not implemented any effective product security or stewardship efforts. Pakistani-based CAN producers can and must do more. Frustratingly, all direct communication and engagement with the leaders of Fatima Group was halted by the government of Pakistan."

The Pentagon enlisted help from the State Department to intervene and pressure the Lahore-based Fatima Group to change their formula. In an interview with Fox News, Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., said those efforts by the State Department "completely failed," and he blames the Pakistani government in large part.

"The Fatima organization was willing to work with our U.S. military to curtail the cross-border transaction of calcium ammonium nitrate until (the) Pakistani government told them 'no, you aren't going to curtail it, stop talking with Americans, we are going to keep shipping across the border the way that we have been'," he said.

What's worse, Hunter said, is that now this same fertilizer group wants to open a factory in Indiana, taking advantage of U.S. taxpayer subsidies meant to help Indiana recover after recent flooding.

"Not only was this company Fatima able to still ship calcium ammonium nitrate to make bombs across the border into Afghanistan, but they were almost getting ready to take advantage of taxpayer-subsidized loans to set up shop in Indiana to make more fertilizer while they were sending bomb making material across the border from Pakistan to Afghanistan," Hunter said.

Indiana's state officials have suspended Fatima's request pending a further investigation and now, for the first time in 12 years, the fertilizer maker appears willing to take simple steps to make its fertilizer non-explosive.

In a statement, Barbero called the developments "positive" and said "Fatima confirmed to me in writing that it has suspended sales of CAN fertilizer products in the border provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, affecting 228 dealers in those areas."

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., likewise said he's received "commitments" from the Fatima Group "that they have voluntarily halted distribution of CAN" in those provinces. He called them "very positive developments which should diminish the amount of this fertilizer available for diversion and smuggling."

The Fatima Group also recently released a video that it says shows a test of a new, less explosive fertilizer they are trying to produce. "As you can see from the video testing, the Fatima Group has successfully created a more inert formulation of ammonium nitrate fertilizer," Fatima said in a statement to Fox News. "Our extensive research and rigorous testing have led to the development of a formulation that has made it extremely difficult -- if not impossible -- to modify ammonium nitrate fertilizer into an explosive."

U.S. Defense officials are still awaiting visas from the Pakistani government to visit Pakistan to see the facility themselves and whether the company's claims that they have made their fertilizer more inert are true.

Still, many believe it's too little progress, too late. Last year, nearly 1,900 U.S. casualties were caused by these homemade bombs. And during the past two years in Afghanistan, roadside bomb events increased 80 percent.

Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., wrote to the departments of Homeland Security and Treasury last month asking for a review of the company's request, noting it could impair national security.

The Treasury Department, in a response dated March 4, suggested that this particular case would fall under the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. The letter, citing the confidentiality of the process, did not say for certain whether and how this case was being reviewed.

"Pakistan not a good actor," Hunter said. "At some point a few months ago this corporation and the Pakistani government cut off all talks with the U.S. military about curtailing the transportation of this explosive across the border until this happened in Indiana. ... Then they reopened up the lines of communication because once again the almighty American dollar prevails."

With Xi Jinping in Russia, Moscow and Beijing's interests overlap on more issues than is often realized.

Image credit:flickr (Mark Turner)

The long-running consensus in the West and elsewhere has been that China and Russia are destined to clash. According to this narrative, while America's post-Cold War primacy pushed the two sides together, geography and China's growing power ensure Beijing and Moscow will be strategic competitors over the long-term.

There's certainly something to this argument; at the very least these factors ensure mistrust will be a permanent feature of the bilateral relationship. That being said, this ignores the potential areas of cooperation between Russia and China, and fails to tell us how temporary the Sino-Russian relationship truly is.

If President Xi Jinping's trip to Russia is any indication, the relationship has greater staying power than analysts previously expected. Not only is it symbolically important that Xi has made Russia the destination of his maiden voyage as China's top leader, but he clearly is placing a lot of importance on the visit. China's state media have spent the past week covering the trip and Sino-Russian ties in excruciating detail, and Xihas reportedly been brushing up on his rudimentary Russian language skills and even memorizing Russian poetry in order to make a strong impression on his hosts. Given Moscow's strong desire to be perceived as a great power, Xi likely had Putin and company at "my first overseas trip."

While Xi's trip may be a one time event, the growing Sino-Russian energy relationship is premised on long-term cooperation. Just hours after Xi's arrival in Russia on Friday, the head of Russian energy giant Rosneftannounced it had reached an "agreement in principle" to more than triple its annual oil exports to China, from 15 million tonnes last year to 45-50 million tonnes at an unspecified future date (likely around 2018). This will make China the largest consumer of Russian oil. As part of the deal, Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will also jointly develop 3 offshore blocks of oil near the Barents Sea and 8 onshore deposits in East Siberia.

Furthermore, Gazprom expects to finally sign a deal with Beijing as early as the end of this month, in which it would export 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually. Gazprom is also reportedly pushing for a loan as part of this deal to construct a pipeline to deliver gas to China via Siberia, much like the U.S. $25 billion loan China provided Rosneft with in 2009 to construct the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline.

There is a significant convergence of interest between the two sides on energy cooperation. British Petroleum forecasts that over half of the global liquids demand growth through 2030 will come from China, at which point Beijing's 46 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf/d) of daily gas consumption will equal the entire EU's gas consumption in 2010. China is already rivaling the U.S. in terms of oil imports, and BP expects China and India to account for 94 percent of net oil demand growth through 2030. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), by 2035 will be China importing 75 percent of the oil it consumes.

All of this poses a number of dilemmas for Chinese policymakers, given the U.S. Navy's control over global sea lanes. Despite over a decade of double digit increases in its military budget, China's growing reliance on foreign energy far outpaces its ability to displace U.S. and allied naval forces. As my colleague Rory Medcalfrecently pointed out, none of this has gone unnoticed in U.S. defense circles.

Russia's oil and gas reserves are almost certainly to be the largest sources of energy that have overland routes to China, and are therefore immune to any sea-based disruptions. Furthermore, Russia's interest in penetrating China's energy markets is difficult to overstate. The Russian economy remains heavily reliant on energy exports, which doesn't portend well for Moscow given the global energy revolution currently underway. Indeed, should the U.S. and EU ink a free trade agreement, Russia's stranglehold over the EU's energy markets could come to an end. At that point Moscow's continued economic viability would fall to Asian nations, principally China and India.

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