News

Swine Breeding Herd Down at Start of December

29 December 2010

Ron Plain

US - Because of the holiday schedule, this report was issued on Monday rather than Friday and covers the previous week, Ron Plain writes.

USDA's December Hogs and Pigs reports said the swine breeding herd was down 1.2 per cent at the start of December and the market hog inventory was down 0.8 per cent compared to 1 December 2009. USDA said fall farrowings were down 2.3 per cent and predicted winter farrowings would be down 0.6 per cent and spring farrowing would be 2.3 per cent lower than for March-May 2010. These numbers are a bit smaller than the pre-release trade forecasts, so this report is slightly bullish for 2011 prices.

The amount of pork in cold storage at the end of November was 469 million pounds, down 2.5 per cent from the month before and down 2.8 per cent from a year earlier. Stocks of frozen pork were the lowest for any 30 November since 2005. Frozen beef stocks were 2.3 per cent higher on 30 November than on the same date in 2009. The supply of frozen chicken was up 16.4 per cent and stocks of frozen turkey were down 28.0 per cent compare the 30 November 2009.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending December 11 was 205 pounds, down 1 pound from the previous week and 5 pounds heavier than a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts marketed the week of December 18 averaged 273.8 pounds, down 1.8 pounds from the week before and up 6.4 pounds compared to a year earlier.

Hog prices ended last week mixed compared to the week before. The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Thursday morning was $67.64/cwt, up 91 cents from the previous Friday. The average carcass price Thursday morning in the eastern corn belt was $66.53/cwt. The western corn belt averaged $68.49/cwt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $68.87/cwt Thursday morning. The top live hog price Thursday at Sioux Falls was $46.50/cwt. The top at Zumbrota was $45 and Peoria's top was $45.50/cwt. The interior Missouri live top Thursday was $47.50/cwt, down 75 cents from the preceding Friday.

USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $77.67/cwt, down $1.65 from the previous Thursday. Hams, loins, and butts were lower this week while bellies were higher.

Hog slaughter last week totaled 1.848 million head, down 21.2 per cent from the week before but up 15.1 per cent compared to the same week last year.

The February lean hog futures contract ended last week at $78.72/cwt, up $2.77 from the previous Friday. The April contract ended the week at $82.77/cwt, up $2.30 and June hogs settled at $91.20.

March corn futures ended last week on Thursday at $6.14/bushel, up 18 cents from the previous Friday. May corn settled at $6.22 on Thursday. All corn futures contracts through December 2014 are above $5.14/bushel.