Paul Petrino faces a challenge at Idaho, which is saddled with a losing program that is seeking a major conference affiliation. (AP Photo)

Idaho, left in the cold of football independence after many former WAC mates accepted invitations to healthier FBS conferences, could be forced to drop to the FCS level if it doesn't hook on with a conference within two years.

"With all the movement in the Big East and everything that has gone on there, I think we'll show great improvement next year and end up either in the Mountain West or possibly the Sun Belt," Petrino told Sporting News.

Spear — who took the A.D. job in 2003 and quickly helped Idaho become a full-fledged member of the WAC — doesn't see the Mountain West thing happening.

"Right now, I think the Mountain West Conference is content to be at 12 teams with the re-additions (of Boise State and San Diego State). Unless they lose some membership, I don't think there'll be room for Idaho," Spear said.

"The Sun Belt is something we're going to continue to explore."

Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson confirmed the conference's intention to stay at 12 teams "for the foreseeable future" and called an addition of Idaho at any point "very doubtful."

Both Spear and Petrino believe on-field performance will, in large part, dictate the program's success or failure in maintaining its FBS status. The Vandals were 1-11 in 2012 and have won nine games since their most recent bowl appearance in 2009.

"I'm really confident," Petrino said. "I think we've made huge strides as a program and gotten people excited. But there's no question our performance on the field will be a huge part of it."

Spear continues to believe, as he first shared with Sporting News last spring, that the elite conferences — SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, ACC — eventually will break off and form their own "tier" of college football. That would leave most of the rest of the current FBS membership in a Tier 2 that would share from the same pot of money and still would fill numerous postseason bowl slots.

According to Spear's point of view, the Big Ten and Big 12, at least, aren't done expanding, and the Big East must continue to reload. From there, think of it like this: Big East takes from Conference USA and perhaps the Sun Belt, C-USA also takes from the Sun Belt, and the Sun Belt takes … Idaho.

Maybe New Mexico State, too. The Aggies are in the same dire straits as the Vandals.

What does Sun Belt commish Karl Benson have to say about this?

"I'm certainly well aware of Idaho's interest in the Sun Belt," he told Sporting News. "Once we get into the actual process of assessing what would be best for the Sun Belt, sure, we would have discussions with Idaho."