There’s a term in business you’ve probably heard: “calculated risk.” It’s defined as “a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.” Basically: the recognition that going a certain path could make things go to shit but it’s either necessary or success could be worth it.

It could be said, then, that Crystal Dynamics’ (or, really, publisher Square Enix’s) decision to make the upcoming Rise of the Tomb Raider a timed exclusive for the Xbox One maybe should have been referred to as a “calculated disaster.”

I get it. Exclusivity deals come with a host of bonuses and a chunk of change, and considering Tomb Raider is an iconic IP, this was likely a big chunk of change. But is it worth it, in the end?

CD rolled out this post on their official tumblr blog which was rather forgivingly entitled a “Rise of the Tomb Raider FAQ”, which is one of the most hilariously inept attempts at calming a fanbase I’ve encountered in recent memory. This is a barebones post which is a paltry five questions long, which runs the gamut from such hard-hitting questions as “What does exclusive to Xbox mean?” and “Did Crystal Dynamics know about this deal?”

Yeah, I’ll bet Crystal Dynamics just had absolutely no idea. Good one to answer there.

The truth is that what everyone wants to know is question number two: how long does the exclusivity last, and can Playstation 4 or PC releases be expected in the future. Their answer is a non-answer, and that’s to be expected, because providing answers to either will a.) reveal the details of the contract and/or b.) violate the terms of the contract. So the other four would be worthless even if they were good questions or had any value in the answers, leading one to wonder what the point was of making this pathetic little stab at all.

The proper thing to put out would be a letter to the community, a heartfelt statement about what this could actually do for the company or the product as a whole while asking for faith and understanding amidst the rage. It won’t make issues go away, but it would be better than this. At the end of the day, anyone who has followed this industry for longer than a year should expect to eventually get screwed over by corporate decisions. The least that can be done is a down-to-earth, human response, divorced from the PR speak which has permeated and exacerbated the issue.

Their final question, “Why all the indirect language?”, is frankly the most damning one of the bunch, with their reply - “We certainly didn’t intend to cause any confusion with the announcement,” and that the announcement wasn’t a time to “go into details” - doesn’t excuse a giant image at the Gamescom showing declaring the game is “exclusively on Xbox”. The language was, in fact, quite direct, and the better question would have been “Why the deceptive language?”

I was very fond of Microsoft’s showing at E3, and I’m a fan of Phil Spencer. I’m happy with the direction Microsoft is taking the Xbox One, and I intend to pick one up in the near future. But this strikes me as an impressively odd business decision. The Xbox One is getting battered in the market: console-wise it was in fourth place this July, ranking behind the PS4, Wii U, and 3DS, while its software sales came in tenth. This Tomb Raider deal had to have been awfully attractive considering month by month the divide between Xbox One and its competitors only seems to be getting wider.

And it’s impossible to avoid the issue of the ire this has riled up amidst the fan base. Taking a classically Sony franchise over to Xbox and praising their “long history with Microsoft” must feel akin to a slap in the face, and while internet rage often proves as fleeting as it is impotent, this has all but started a movement - one fueled by years of brand loyalty and multi-platform freedom.

Will the extra cash and promotion from Microsoft make up for the ire, despite this launch being attached to a console which may be heading for dire straits? Once the timed exclusivity inevitably ends and PS4/PC releases come around, will the hate have died down? It’s impossible to estimate what the industry will look like come holiday 2015 and beyond, but where we’re standing right now, it’s hard not to see a calculated disaster.

Comments

NierAndFar
5 years ago

Wow, first article in quite a while.Anyway, at the very least they did state it as a timed exclusive. I'm not sure who thought timed exclusive for a sequel to a non exclusive title was a smart idea, and the way they've been using the "PR speak" to try to calm people down clearly isn't helping. Hoping for a good game in the end, though.

But yeah, I see non-PR speak as the only way to assuage this situation. Who knows if they'll go for it, but I remember the incredibly open and frank responses that the Human Revolution team had for their always-open inbox did wonders.

The thing is though MS usually did timed exclusive for DLC/Downloadable titles which was (for the most part) accepted by gamers but if they are now making full retail games timed exclusive that will definitely cause some dispute among people who do not own an X1. Honestly I don't really see how this decision could benefit them in the long term and if they decide to do this for more franchises coming over from the prev gen there will be some major backlash for sure.

Definitely. PS4/XBO have such similar architecture that releasing multiplatform this gen is a no brainer, thus publishers will need convincing to release anything exclusive b/c it cuts off a chunk of the market from day one.

I see MS doing it as much as they can afford. I've been an XB owner since the original, but there's no denying Sony has more exclusives and MS needs to make up for it somehow.

Remember back in the day when the OG Xbox had so many great exclusives? Hell I didn't even own an xbox at the time but seeing all the great and unique titles made me regret not buying one. My main point being MS should focus on making quality exclusive titles for X1 like Sony is for the PS4 rather than making sequels to series that were multi-platform timed exclusives.

I absolutely hate when they have to word everything in a weird way. I don't think the hate will go away when it is finally released on PS4/PC. If anything, people will give Microsoft more crap. I don't think this will become much of a trend seeing as how the backlash on this alone was pretty crazy, but you never know.

The Tomb Raider thing hasn't really bothered me. There's nothing wrong with a game being an exclusive or a timed exclusive. It's presumably good for Crystal Dynamics, Squeenix, and Microsoft so more power to them. I'm sure Squeenix was paid enough money to make it worth it for them and the more exclusives Microsoft has the better for them. True that Tomb Raider has been historically a PS franchise, but from a business standpoint I'm assuming it was in Squeenix's best interest to accept Microsoft's offer. They'd probably have to be crazy not to accept it.

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