College dropout stats skewed by ‘switchers’ and ‘leavers’

Many young people are taking a circuitous route from high
school to the podium at college or university graduation, says a
ground-breaking study by a University of Ottawa economist.

By Ottawa CitizenAugust 28, 2008

OTTAWA — Many young people are taking a circuitous route from high school to the podium at college or university graduation, says a ground-breaking study by a University of Ottawa economist.

But there is good news.

Universities have known for a long time that only about half of the students who begin a college or university program never actually finish it. Among the most heartening conclusions of Ross Finnie’s new study of “leavers” and “switchers” is that most of the dropouts are merely changing programs or institutions and end up on the podium eventually.

While many students made educational detours, almost 70 per cent eventually graduated from a program somewhere within five years. Another 20 per cent were still in college or university. In all, only about 10 per cent of the students had dropped out permanently.

“This will change our view of post-secondary education,” said Mr. Finnie, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.

Felice Martinello, a Brock University economist who has also studied student wanderings, believes it’s part of a societal trend.

“Young people are growing up slowly. It’s not necessarily a bad thing. There’s no reason to have a job and two kids at 21.”

Mr. Finnie’s study used 2000 to 2006 data from a long-term study of Canadian youth collected by Statistics Canada to track hundreds of post-secondary students, something that has never been done in Canada before.

In many cases, students found they made the wrong choice, Mr. Finnie discovered.

Of the college students, more than 44 per cent of the switchers and 37 per cent of the leavers said they didn’t like their program or “it wasn’t for me.” Among the university students, 30.5 per cent of the leavers and 28.3 per cent of the switchers said they didn’t like their program or it wasn’t for them.

A significant number end up back in school within a year — 22.3 per cent of the college leavers and 35.6 per cent of the university leavers. Within three years, 40.3 per cent of the college leavers and 54 per cent of the university leavers are back.

Money, or lack of it, doesn’t appear to play a major role in the decision. While students who get scholarships or grants are less likely to leave than those who get loans, of all those who start post-secondary education, only 1.8 per cent of those in college and 2.3 per cent of those in university depart for lack of funds.

“We could throw more money at students, but money doesn’t appear to be a factor,” said Mr. Finnie.

Meanwhile, Mr. Martinello reported that while having educated parents increases the likelihood of seeking a post-secondary education, it didn’t necessarily help students make a first choice they would stick with. Students who had parents with post-secondary education were just as likely to leave their first program as students whose parents were less educated. However, those with more-educated parents were also more likely to join another program.

“My own conjecture is that if your kid is going to university, you’re happy that they’re going and you’re willing to give them a first shot at doing what they want to do,” he said.

High schools can do a better job of instilling a sense of urgency in young people when it comes to career planning, without making teens feel anxious.

“A plan is better than no plan, even if it turns out to be the wrong plan,” he said.

Alex Usher, director of the Education Policy Institute, a Toronto think-tank, said Mr. Finnie’s study has produced unexpected good news.

“No one really thought the numbers were so high,” he said.

“One of the strengths of the North American system is that we let people have second or third chances. European systems are pretty unforgiving.”

More forward-thinking universities are implementing strategies aimed at “student success” — like helping students who are struggling within a few weeks of starting school.

Since this is the first study to track students over the long term, it’s impossible to say whether today’s students wander on the post-secondary landscape more than in previous generations, said Mr. Finnie.

However, Mr. Martinello said there’s no doubt students are taking longer to graduate. “They’ll start with five courses and drop one. Very few students graduate in four years,” he said. “Exactly what they’re doing — working or playing video games — I can’t say.”

Making the decision

Ross Finnie’s other findings about “leavers” and “switchers” include:

• Provincial unemployment rates appear to have no effect on a student’s decision to switch or leave, nor does the lure of better jobs or the lack of a job.

• Family has an effect sometimes, but not always. Students from single-parent families are more likely to switch or leave at the college level, but are less likely to switch university programs and leaving was no different for single-parent university students than those from two-parent families.

• At the college level, the quality of teaching, the level of the workload, having people to talk to and having a sense of learning job skills had an effect on switching and leaving. These factors had little effect among university students.

• Immigrant and visible minority university students are less likely to leave or switch.

• Those who start their educations after 21 are less likely to switch, but more likely to leave.

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