Weather Blog: Weekend Question - Rain Or Snow

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! The weekend is quickly approaching and with it a chance of rain or snow. In today's blog we breakdown the weekend forecast to let you know where rain is most likely, and the locations that may need to shovel.

Let's start with an update on the snow drought in Milwaukee. The last time measurable snow was recorded was March 4, 2012 -- or 277 days ago(including Thursday). The record longest consecutive streak of days without measurable snow is 279 set in 1999.

So is the snow streak in danger this weekend? To answer that question we look at the latest data for Saturday and Sunday.

The first chance at precipitation will occur Friday night into early Saturday. A weak disturbance will drift south of our area. This should produce light rain and snow in southeast Wisconsin. The best chance of snow will occur inland. Light rain, a mix or eventually some snow is more likely near Lake Michigan. Keep in mind Lake Michigan surface water temperatures are still in the 40s. The warmer air above the lake can keep lakeshore counties warmer if winds are out of an easterly direction. The warmer lake can keep precipitation type rain longer as the warmer air pushes over the land.

The chance for precipitation should end by mid Saturday morning. Snow accumulations look to be minor and primarily on grassy surfaces. We will watch the trends closely, but with marginal temperatures mainly above freezing it will be tough to get snow to stick on roads in Milwaukee.

A second system with more precipitation will arrive Sunday morning. Again temperatures will be an issue for snow lovers. Expect temperatures at or above freezing in most locations. With winds likely off Lake Michigan lakeshore locations may hover in the upper 30s to around 40.

The precipitation may start as a mixed bag before changing to rain in Milwaukee. The NAM computer model forecast below is valid at 9am Sunday showing forecast precipitation type. Green is rain, and blue is snow. The NAM shows mainly rain in our area, with better chances for snow north of West Bend.

A second model, the RPM, shows about the same setup with rain in the south and snow in the north. The forecast below is valid at 3:30am Sunday, a much quicker on set of precipitation.

This model also shows more rain than snow in our area. I do think colder air will change the rain or mix to snow before the precipitation ends. We will watch this closely as there could be some snow accumulation in southeast Wisconsin. But as of this writing it looks to be light, and maybe nothing in some areas.

If you are traveling to central or northern Wisconsin on Sunday, several inches of snow is possible.

One reason we continue to struggle to get systems with snow in southeast Wisconsin is the track of the upper level low pressure area. Typically for southeast Wisconsin to get snow we want the upper level low pressure area to track just to our southeast. That puts us in a favorable spot for lift, and also the colder side of the storm.

Look at the 500mb forecast map below is valid at 6pm Sunday. The 'X' over northwest Wisconsin is the upper level low. This is not a good spot for the low to travel to produce snow in our area, especially this early in the season.

Below is an example of a perfect track for the upper level low. The map below is the 500mb archived chart from the Groundhog Blizzard which occurred on February 2, 2011. Notice the 'low' just east of Milwaukee near the Michigan and Indiana border. This upper low tracked to the northeast and was in this position at 6am February 2, 2011. Of course we know the crazy snow that occurred with plenty of cold air in place.

In order to get a good snow in our area we need colder air, and storm tracks a little farther to the southeast. We should see some snow in the coming days, but as Mark Baden likes to say -- it may be more wet than white. Hang in there snow lovers!

For the latest weather information watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather

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