A Shocking Strategic Maneuver In Kansas Could Help Democrats Keep Their Senate Majority

The Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Kansas dropped out of the
race Wednesday night, a stunning development that may actually
help national Democrats in their quest to maintain control of the
Senate.

Democratic nominee Chad Taylor announced his departure from the
race Wednesday, paving the way for 45-year-old independent
candidate Greg Orman to challenge Sen. Pat Roberts, a Republican
who has been one of the state's senators since 1997 and in
Congress since 1981.

"This is certainly an unexpected turn of events," Orman
said in a statement. "Chad Taylor is a committed public servant.
He ran an honorable campaign and worked hard, and I wish him and
his family well."

The move means Roberts is now facing a far more daunting
path to re-election — and his campaign was furious. After Taylor
dropped out, Team Roberts issued a statement that accused Orman
and Democrats of entering into a "corrupt bargain" to retain the
Senate majority.

"Chad Taylor’s withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race reveals
a corrupt bargain between Greg Orman and national Democrats
including Senator Harry Reid that disenfranchises Kansas
Democrats," said Leroy Towns, Roberts' executive campaign
manager. "It makes clear what has been obvious from the start:
Orman is the choice of liberal Democrats, and he can no longer
hide behind an independent smokescreen."

According to multiple Democratic operatives familiar with
the race, the state Democratic party had worked hard to persuade
Taylor to withdraw from the race in the belief allowing Orman to
fly solo would pose the best challenge to Roberts. Orman is a
former Democrat who has portrayed himself as frustrated with the
two-party system. It is widely expected he would caucus with
Democrats in the Senate if elected — especially if Democrats
retain the majority — but he hasn't given a clear indication yet
on that question.

Last month, Roberts survived a primary challenge from the
Tea Party-aligned doctor Milton Wolf. But though scant polling is
available on a head-to-head general electionrace between
Roberts and Orman, at least one survey from the
Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Roberts starting
from behind.

That poll, which was released late last month,
showed Roberts trailing Orman, 43-33. It also showed Taylor
dropping out was essential to Orman's chances, as the two both
narrowly trailed Roberts in polling of a three-way race.

Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, said
Orman could definitely beat Roberts, who was badly damaged by his
primary battle. The incumbent's approval rating now sits at just
27%, compared with 44% of Kansas voters who disapprove of
him.

"I definitely think Orman can win — Roberts’ approval
rating was 27% on our last poll, and when you have a 27% approval
rating you’re always in a lot of trouble," Jensen told Business
Insider.

Pat Roberts was triumphant
in this primary victory speech, but he might be now facing an
even more daunting challenge.AP

However, Jensen cautioned Orman might be at his peak in the
cycle — and Roberts might be at his low point. Other Republicans
facing tough primary challenges, including Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell, improved their standing as their primary
challenges have faded further into the rearview mirror.

And Orman will also have to walk a fine line to maintain
his current level of support. According to the PPP poll, he would
steal about 30% of Republicans away from Roberts. Orman needs
that success with moderate Republicans to have a chance against
Roberts.

"He's relying on being able to maintain a group of voters
who are completely divided on national politics overall — that’s
a tough act," Jensen said.

Momentum is clearly with Orman. Since his primary win —
which was initially expected to be his only major challenge of
the cycle — Roberts has seen his race change from a near-certain
win to a relative toss-up. The University of Virginia's Center
for Politics has in just one week downgraded the seat from a "safe Republican"
to a "leans Republican."

Putting the seat more in play improves Democratic chances
on a challenging map because of the resources that will need to
be devoted to a normally deep-red seat. And if Orman wins, it
also flips the dynamics of the battle for Senate control. Right
now, Republicans need to swing six Democratic-held seats to gain
control of the Senate while holding onto their own seats. If
Orman prevails, the GOP would have to pick up a different seat
from a more challenging battleground state.

Wrote Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia's Center for
Politics: "It’s odd
but true: Senate Democrats had a good day because the Democratic
candidate in a Senate race dropped out two months before the
election. Politics can be a bizarre business."