What Future for Global Leadership?

With global leadership now in question, the G20’s upcoming summit in Hamburg on July 7-8 could be the group’s tensest meeting ever. China and Germany increasingly regard themselves as the new defenders of the international order, but neither can fill America's shoes.

PRINCETON – With global leadership now in question, the G20’s upcoming summit in Hamburg on July 7-8 could be the group’s tensest meeting ever. The summit process long pre-dates the G20’s founding in 1999. It was originally designed, in the 1970s, to align major economies’ domestic policies, thereby reducing uncertainty. But domestic politics have now created a new type of uncertainty.

Whereas the international community isolated Russia at the G20 Brisbane summit in 2014, the United States has isolated itself in 2017. After making a blustering appearance at the G7 Taormina summit this past May, US President Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing the US from the 2015 Paris climate agreement. In response, European G7 leaders, with the notable exception of British Prime Minister Theresa May, have signed a declaration condemning Trump’s position.

After serving as the main architects of the United Nations system and the post-1945 international order, the US and the United Kingdom now seem intent on reversing that legacy. Since Trump’s election and the Brexit referendum last year, both countries have embarked on an inconsistent and highly contested political path away from openness and multilateralism.

Is it a coincidence that China and Germany are the countries with the largest current account surpluses, and the UK and the US the largest deficits?
By the way, Germany has long been one of the most aggressive countries in supporting its coal industry (the Kohlenpfennig, a tax on electricity consumers to subsidize coal).

Harold James suggests that the upcoming G20 summit this week in Hamburg may shed light on a "new leadership and a new approach to multilateralism and soft power " that breathe fresh life into the "old globalization," since Trump lacks the gravitas to lead. For decades, the US backed by its Transatlantic partners had been seen as the indispensable leader of the international community. However Brexit and Trump's election last year ushered in a new era of uncertainty, as many Britons and Americans stood up to globalisation and voted for a nationalist, nativist and protectionist agenda.
Trump's presidendy is still contentious, because he cheated his way to the top, by tapping "into voters’ fears about immigration." His mendacity and political farcel erode the dignity of his office. He ignores the principle of the rule of law and rejects institutions that have secured peace and prosperity for decades. He also wants to "renegotiate international deals," such as NAFTA.
In the UK, Theresa May is also seeking to redefine its "relationship with Europe " since it voted to leave the EU. Britain's role in the world has also been weakend by May's "memorable words" during last October's Tory Party Conference: “If you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what the very word ‘citizenship’ means.”
A leader can't claim global leadership, if he/she panders to populism and sides with workers, who "have come to associate globalization with job losses and inequality, and demanded "more protection." A judicious leader ought to explain to his/her voters that globalisation is not the source of their economic grievances, but technology, and that "protectionism usually comes at a high cost to consumers, and especially to low earners." It is the duty of a global leader to highlight the benefits of globalization and explain "that lower-income groups tend to benefit the most from trade liberalization."
During the G7 summit in Sicilly last May, European leaders concluded that the UK and the US were no longer reliable partners. Both countries "have embarked on an inconsistent and highly contested political path away from openness and multilateralism." What frustrated most Europeans were Trump's anti-EU sentiment, autocratic posture, short-sighted policies, like the refusal to commit to the 2015 Paris climate deal, and his malice to destabilise the EU. This prompted Angela Merkel to reiterate her call for Europeans to take their fate into their own hands.
Trump's aides fear that his propensity for unpredictable utterances and awkward foolhardy actions at the G20 may once again make global headlines. He shocked the world during the G7 summit, when he pushed the Montenegrin prime minister aside, so that he could have the best spot for a photo-op. Unfortunately he lacks the political acumen and savoir-faire to capitalise on such a high profile event like the G20 to restore respect for America's international leadership.
Angela Merkel is expected to "promote globalization in America’s stead" with the "post-war spirit of universality in retreat." The author says, "Germany is simply too small to act as a hegemon, and its position within the eurozone is still being strained by the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis." She and Xi Jinping have forged closer ties in recent months.
The two leaders "see themselves as the new defenders of the global order" and are "increasingly aligned on many key issues. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions under the Paris accord, and both object to Trump’s obstructive crusade on behalf of the coal industry. There is also a clear Chinese-German alliance forming to oppose trade protectionism."
According to the author, China, despite economic growth may still "encounter obstacles in pursuit of global leadership," because its financial sector is vulnerable to crises. Its ambitious infrastructure "One Belt, One Road" project is costly and will meet multiple challenges in a very restive part of the world. Most of all, China is not yet ready to lead the liberal world, because "at the heart of anti-globalization critiques in rich countries has been a call for more democracy, not less."
Although both China and Germany have "some of the ingredients for a new form of global leadership," each alone can't assume the mantle of global leadership. Germany definitely has "a strong democracy" and China "has great universities that are rapidly improving." The author says the US is still seen as having the key ingredients of global democratic leadership. For this reason it will also survive the Trump presidency.

THE MACMAY DOCTRINE
The Mediterranean Union of President Sarkozy was France's genius - when Molotov Ribbentrop 2.0 is in its Mandarin version.
Unless The Macron Mandate ventures into The Trudeau Template - the choice of English as the lingua franca is too tempting.
When The Big Bear is bridging Berlin and Beijing - it is but blatant that Macron n Trudeau build bridges with Trump n May.
Macron n May perhaps more than a match - along with Trump n Trudeau - for the Road from Berlin to Beijing.

Why to talk about Germany and China, but about European Union and China, who are going to promote free trade.

It is very clear that stupid "USA First"- policy is deminishing role of United States as superpower and the superpower role of China and later of India is steadily growing. And the playmate is not USA but EU.

Hopefully USA is wise enough to change the policy of USA first. If not, USA is going to meet the destiny of Russia as a regional power.

Who will contain and subdue the advance of globalization? How? Right now Trump is asking himself how to repatriate transnational profits, promising a 10% tax limit for corporations, which will fix a leak in public finances while of course creating an even bigger one. Similar problems will face Brexit, I think.

So long as globalization results in a shrinking middle class in host countries, it cannot work. Nations without a strong middle class are inherently unstable. China of course adores globalization, due to the wild trade imbalances it has reaped from it, allowing it to grow its middle class, stabilizing its nation. The CCP's biggest fear has always been another people's revolution.

The United States is on the opposite end of this spectrum. A collapsing middle class, real wages that have decreased since 1980, and all net job growth since 2000 going to immigrants, while the sons and daughters of Americans swell the ranks of the long-term unemployed by millions every year. Globalization has been a boon for American multinationals, Wall Street, and American immigrants, but a bum deal for American citizens. The reaction we're witnessing is the only one possible; the market has gotten too far out of sync, and now it's entered a correction.

Populaces are reacting rationally. If you want to know who the beneficiaries of globalization are and who the victims of it are, just look at their politics. Hollywood, academia, the MNCs, the MSM, and the big banks have howled with horror at the rising tide of nationalism in the US. Average Americans, on the other hand, are wiping their brows with relief. The one-way wealth transfer from the middle class to everyone else may finally have had a stake driven into its heart.

Forget the United Kingdom. Its self- regard has been wildly out of synch with its real influence since 1945. it serves as a sycophantic sidekick to the US. An additional vote to reliably support the US in the UN Security Council. Tonto to the US 'Lone Ranger', if any still remember that show.

The US has since '9/11' allowed influence on, and control of, events, to leak from it like a party balloon the day after, against no plausible - let alone 'existential' threat. This must surely be a historical first. It's not just the present -quirky - leadership; form Bush The Son on, for reasons both internal political and external misreading, the US has scored one 'own goal' after another. With a stunning score now, it shows no sign of any capacity for effective leadership at home or abroad.

If 'exceptional', then exceptionally dumb.

Its vast military has won no wars since 1945. Not even tiny skirmishes. ('Gulf 1' was a won battle in a lost war.) Grenada?? Panama?? Hah!

The old order unravels. The new is not yet woven. I don't think we're anywhere near a pre-WW 1 clear 'balance of power'; competing forces are not yet in even approximate equilibrium. China is an obvious global player, if it can keep itself intact internally. Historically, it goes in for operatically vast upheavals on a fairly regular basis (on historical timescales). Russia is too economically weak, and were it not for laughable US blunders, would not have been able to reassert its influence so easily (Syria).

China and Germany? Interesting. Remember the last line of the Tom Lehrer satirical song, ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V7me25aNtI ). Prescient?

I howled with laughter at Fukuyama's 'end of history' notion. Clearly he has no experience with actual humans. He's since claimed repentance. So did Galileo.

The problem is the man on the street has NOT benefited from globalization Professor. What does it matter if prices for items are down 25-35% if wages are down 50% and your job has been shipped to Malaysia or Mexico to increase the CEO's end of year bonus. That is my and who lot of other peoples problem with Globalization and those who think it is such a "wonderful" thing. Did it improve aggregate measures such as GDP sure it did, But all of those gains went to a few at the top. For the lower middle class and a big chunk of the working class all Globalization has meant as been watching your job shipped to the 3rd world. The service jobs that remain don't pay for toilet paper much less a decent place to live. You people claim to be a citizens of the world are sacrificing a whole lot of interests that ARE NOT yours to sacrifice to help the 3rd world. Maybe it is the right thing I doubt it but whatever. But bluntly THEY WERE NOT YOUR INTEREST'S TO SACRIFICE. Why don't you sacrifice your own interests instead of those belonging to people without a place at the table. The man on the street in the UK & the US HATES globalization because it has made him much much worse off. And a word of warning they are starting to hate and despise the so called Liberal democracies for the same reasons governments in all of them are basically made up of people who go from congress, to lobbyist to banker to regulator and back to lobbyist and nobody is so delusional as to believe that these people give a single solitary damn about anyone who works for an hourly wage. Truthfully you people have trouble seeing the truth because your interests depend absolutely on NOT seeing the truth that for the working class Globaloization as been the worse thing since serfdom.

It is important for both Germany and China to pursue strategic collaboration between themselves and with a wide range of players in the international system. Russia and the United States have not overcome the legacies of the Cold War when their strategic relationship was a key determinant of the international order.
However, since end of the Cold War, there have been enormous changes in the international order that has moved beyond a bipolar world. Both Germany and China recognize that they have to assume more active roles in constructing a multi-polar international system which opens space for global strategies and shared solutions to emerging problems.
They are demonstrating wisdom and statecraft while the USA and Russia are hamstrung as a result of the unraveling of a bipolar system and its zero-sum logic.
Constructive engagement is a necessity for an international order in flux.

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