GOP breaks the glass as House outlook darkens

Earlier this year, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Steve Stivers met one-on-one with all 43 House Republicans who were outraised by Democratic opponents during the fourth quarter of 2017. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Republicans are rushing to shore up congressional seats deep in the heart of Trump country as they come to an alarming realization: In this midterm election, few GOP lawmakers are safe.

GOP leaders are pressing Republican lawmakers in conservative areas to get their sluggish campaigns in order. They’re pleading with major donors to open their wallets for incumbents in seats previously thought to be secure. And they’re polling districts President Donald Trump won comfortably just a year and a half ago, searching for signs of trouble.

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While most of the party’s efforts have been focused on defending swing districts, Republicans are increasingly turning their attention to more conservative areas, from suburban Phoenix to rural Virginia, fearful that they too could be casualties of a midterm bloodbath.

Party officials say they‘ve learned the lessons Democrats failed to heed during the 2010 House GOP takeover. That year, a number of Democratic-held seats once thought to be safe became endangered just before the election, giving the national party little time to mount a rescue campaign.

"In a year like this, every Republican is vulnerable. If you don't take your race seriously, you'll probably lose," said Robert Blizzard, a veteran Republican pollster who’s working on a number of congressional races. "The Democratic enthusiasm is no joke. They're coming to the polls in November no matter what. Don't run a strong campaign at your own potential peril."

Republicans are racing to lock down an upcoming special election in a deep-red Arizona district that Trump won by 21 percentage points. After losing in a conservative Pennsylvania district last month, the national party poured over $400,000 into the suburban Phoenix seat.

The contest is provoking angst in GOP circles: During a conference call with Republican National Committee and Arizona Republican Party officials last week, White House aides expressed concern about the party’s volunteer efforts in the race.

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GOP officials are confident that Republican nominee Debbie Lesko will ultimately survive the April 24 election, though the party is taking no chances. Next week, Republican leaders will mount a double-barreled offensive to pull her over the finish line, with House Speaker Paul Ryan holding a Capitol Hill fundraiser for Lesko and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy flying out to the district on her behalf.

The intervention effort was underway even before Republicans were gobsmacked by Ryan’s retirement announcement this week, a development that threatens to suppress their fundraising. McCarthy has been urging a range of members to get their campaigns in shape and not rely on outside super PACs.

And earlier this year, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) met one-on-one with all 43 House Republicans who were outraised by Democratic opponents during the fourth quarter of 2017.

At the committee’s Capitol Hill headquarters, staffers have begun referring to members like Illinois Rep. Randy Hultgren, Virginia Rep. Tom Garrett and North Carolina Rep. Ted Budd — who also won reelection in 2016 by double digits — as “the foundation.” In other words, the lawmakers whose fate will determine whether Republicans save their majority.

Over the past few weeks, the pro-House GOP Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC has conducted surveys in the districts of three conservative House Freedom Caucus members — Garrett, Budd and Virginia Rep. Dave Brat.

It also polled the races of two North Carolina Republicans, Reps. Robert Pittenger and George Holding, both of whom won by double digits in 2016. Their House districts are among 50 the super PAC has surveyed.

Those familiar with the polling say none of the five members are in imminent danger of losing. Yet some are sounding the alarm.

On Monday, veteran GOP pollster John McLaughlin, who advised Trump’s 2016 campaign, delivered a presentation to Florida Republican legislators in which he warned that the party was failing to invigorate the president’s supporters. He said many Trump voters were likely sit out the midterms, a dynamic that could endanger lawmakers in conservative areas.

At one point, McLaughlin showed a slide highlighting the Republican drop-off in special elections since the start of the 2018 cycle and noting that Democrats had improved their performance by 14 percentage points on average.

“Republicans are losing elections because they don’t understand and are not appealing to Trump voters, and Trump voters are staying home because the Republican establishment has no clue how to get them out,” McLaughlin said in an interview.

Party officials are particularly concerned about members who’ve failed to fill their fundraising coffers. In North Carolina, Pittenger has been outraised by his Democratic opponent, Iraq War veteran Dan McCready. On Tuesday, McCarthy held an event for Pittenger in the state that raised over $160,000.

In Virginia, Garrett and Brat have posted subpar totals, raising concerns among party leaders, who are rushing to help them build their war chests. Next month, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise will headline a “Breakfast with Brat” event benefiting the conservative congressman.

“Unfortunately, in Garrett and Brat’s case, neither congressman has done what they need to do from a fundraising perspective,” said Chris LaCivita, a longtime Virginia-based Republican strategist. “From a fundraising standpoint they have made their races attractive to Democrats."

In some states, the GOP is racing to build political infrastructure for lawmakers who previously needed little help from the national party. Congressional Leadership Fund has opened a field office devoted to boosting Washington Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the House GOP Conference chairwoman who’s won her past five reelection bids with at least 60 percent of the vote.

The RNC has established an elaborate field program in North Carolina, where Holden, Budd and Pittenger are running — and where there are otherwise few voter turnout mechanisms in place. With North Carolina in a “blue moon” election cycle, meaning that there are no statewide races on the ballot other than Supreme Court contests, the committee has dispatched six full-time field staffers to the state.

National GOP officials and local operatives have been holding regular breakfast meetings to coordinate their efforts.

“It’s the first time I’ve witnessed the national party coming and building that kind of infrastructure during a blue-moon election cycle,” said Paul Shumaker, a veteran North Carolina-based GOP strategist who’s working on several congressional races in the state.

Ryan, meanwhile, has made a pet project of reelecting fellow Wisconsin Rep. Glenn Grothman, who represents a district that Trump won by 17 percentage points. Earlier this year, Ryan’s political team helped to establish a joint fundraising committee aimed at helping Grothman raise national funds. The speaker is also expected to hit the trail for Grothman, a second-term lawmaker who’s facing a challenge from Dan Kohl, the nephew of former Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.

And in February, Ryan called into the annual Las Vegas board meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, a group funded in part by billionaire donor Sheldon Adelson, to urge givers to pony up for Grothman.

Another part of the GOP’s effort involves persuading red-district lawmakers to seek reelection, something with which leaders have had mixed success. In January, when Florida Rep. Dennis Ross told Stivers that he was considering retirement, the House GOP campaign chief urged him to run again.

Ross announced this week that he’d be stepping aside after four terms.

On Wednesday, following news of Ryan’s retirement, Stivers spoke with several other members and asked them whether they’d be running again. They assured him they were.

How much success Republicans have at protecting conservative districts could come down to how much money they have. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer, one of the GOP’s most influential and prolific contributors, will host a retreat this weekend in Chicago that is expected to draw a number of the party’s biggest givers.

Among the topics likely to be addressed at the conference, which was scheduled prior to Ryan’s announcement, is how to allocate funds in the midterms.

Some Republicans, however, contend that the biggest concern isn’t donors — it’s unprepared lawmakers failing to realize the danger they face.

Congressional “majorities aren’t made by the races that are targeted the whole cycle. They are made by open seats and unprepared members in Republican-leaning seats where members are unprepared,” said Jeff Burton, a former top NRCC official.

“They will go home in August and finally realize what the environment looks like,“ he added, “and by that time, it’s almost too late.”