Angels, Rangers, Red Sox Scouting Josh Johnson

9:42pm: Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com adds that Angels pro scouting director Hal Morris was also present for Johnson's start tonight (Twitter link). Johnson fired a gem, allowing just one hit and striking out nine hitters in six innings. Johnson did leave the start early with what he told reporters (including MLB.com's Joe Frisaro) was a cut near his fingernail. He's expected to make his next start.

7:25pm: The Rangers also have a scout in attendance to watch Johnson's start this evening, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

7:00pm: The Marlins have already traded one starting pitcher (and their second baseman) today, and the Red Sox are hopeful they'll consider moving another. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox are scouting Josh Johnson (Twitter link). No deal is close, according to Cafardo.

Johnson, 28, has struggled in 2012, pitching to a 4.35 ERA in 113 2/3 innings. Johnson has a 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 46.5% groundball rate. Both FIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.79) suggest that Johnson has been the victim of some poor luck. The right-hander is in the third year of a four-year, $39MM contract he signed in January of 2010. He's making $13.75MM this season and will be paid the same salary in 2013.

JJ and Hanley have both been struggling and had injuries, and both are getting expensive and only under control for two more years. Middlebrooks is cheap, under control for 6 more years, and playing better than Hanley has in 2 years.

He’s not going to be playing in the major for anyone anytime soon (he’s 19 and in A ball), but no one actually knows how he’ll be at 3B until he actually plays there, but he has the athleticism and arm to be above average there (and even if you were right about him projecting to be average at 3B that’s pretty indicative of him not being able to stick at SS). His bat is truly special though and is good enough to play anywhere in the field, so when he’s ready they’ll make room for him at whatever position he ends up at (Middlebrooks certainly isn’t going to block him once he’s ready if it’s at 3B).

Really? Middlebrooks will certainly block him. Did you not read his scouting report either after quoting all those cute reporters:

Moves very well at third base. Good agility and reactions to both sides. Can cut in front of the shortstop to make plays without much effort. Has very good hands and good fundamentals in every phase of his defensive game. A true asset at the hot corner. Uses his athleticism and size to his advantage. Could be a potential Gold Glove caliber defender once he settles in at the big league level.

XB is proposed to move from SS (the only position he has ever known) because they project him to grow too large to maintain his agility at the position (which he disagrees with and continues to push to stay at SS)

I think my overall point is that I agree that XB wont be here for years and that trading WMB is pure stupidity which was what was originally proposed here

Cute reporters? You mean professional scouts who are paid to know these things about players? Even if Bogaerts isn’t as good as Middlebrooks defensively his bat is going to be so much better that it wont even be a question who to play when the time comes.

No one in the entire system has as much offensive potential as Bogaerts and he wont be blocked by anyone no matter what position he ends up at.

Once again Middlebrooks projects to hit just as well and is considered to be a future all-star. So despite your obvious boner for XB and my agreement that he has potential to be great, if WMB is hitting .290 and putting up 30 HR 90 RBI every season then you are just wrong. He will absolutely be blocked. Get back to me in 4 years if Bogaerts hasn’t been traded and we’ll see who’s playing 3B

You’re the one who told me to read a scouting report; have you ever actually read one yourself? Xander has more potential than anyone to come through the Red Sox system since Hanley. He has legitimate superstar potential. There’s a reason he was ranked as high as #11 on the recent top prospect lists (Middlebrooks barely cracked the top 50), and there’s a reason he’s talked about as a potential top 10 for next year.

I don’t care about any of those things. He doesn’t have anywhere near the ceiling that Bogaerts does, and it only takes a few seconds worth of reading scouting reports to figure that out.

If you don’t want to read scouting reports and figure it out yourself, go ask some of the scouting guys on twitter or in one of the chats they have, they’ll tell you the same thing. It really is the consensus at this point.

You quoted one part about Middlebrooks’ defense, nothing about his offense, and nothing about Bogaerts at all. Telling me Middlebrooks plays good defense doesn’t make him better than Bogaerts (and isn’t telling me anything I don’t already know).

You are seriously the only person I have ever even heard imply that Middlebrooks might have more potential. It’s seriously not even a question among anyone who actually follows this stuff.

Go over to Soxprospects dot com and ask anyone over there which one has a higher ceiling. Ask Chris Mellen on twitter. Ask any of the national prospect guys. Seriously, go ask. Unless you can tell better from your living room (likely never even having seen Bogaerts play, and surely not having any scouting experience) I don’t really see how you can just say that they all (every one of them) are wrong.

I just gave you the link of baseballamerica placing WMB ahead of XB as the #1 prospect in the RS organization but here are the scouting reports:

Xander Bogaerts
Hit: Quiet, balanced swing. Lower half has little movement and says in line and on balance throughout. Head doesn’t move through swing. Plus-plus bat speed with outstanding plate coverage. Can make contact on a variety of pitches. Struggles with quality breaking balls but can foul them off rather than swing through. Hands work well and he controls the barrel even when gearing up for power. Potential average to slightly above-average hitter long term. Grade – 30/50
Power: Outstanding bat speed. Can really drive the FB and can drive secondary pitches when he barrels them. Bat stays in zone a long time and has good loft in swing. Easy plus in-game power projection and true plus-plus raw power that could all translate to the game. Chance to hit 30+ home runs at his peak. Grade (raw power) – 60/70

Will Middlebrooks
Hit: Believes he can hit everything. Has a tendency to expand his zone and chase pitches but has shown improvement in this area the last two years. Plus or better bat speed, good hands and a natural feel for contact give him some hitting projection. Starts with a bit of a “pre-load,” on his back leg, which has helped him stay back more consistently and keep his timing. Still susceptible to breaking balls out of the zone, and may always be. Has potential to hit .275-.280 at his peak, though he could be prone to elongated cold streaks because of his aggressive approach to at-bats. Grade – 40/50
Power: Very natural power that comes from both his natural physical strength and his very good bat speed. Trusts his hands and can drive the ball out of the park to the opposite field. Still learning when and how to turn on pitches on the inner half to maximize the power in his bat. Really started translating power to game situations last year, driving the ball with regularity. Potential for 25+ home runs with occasional seasons where he runs into even more than that. True power profile of a classic third baseman. I’ve toyed with 70 long term power from him, but will remain more conservative in this report. Grade (raw power) – 60/60

And for christsake Bogaerts plays in Single A nobody watchs him play and WMB is putting up ROY numbers in the MLB. Nobody is arguing that XB isnt a good prospect but you are a terrible judge of baseball talent if you think Will Middlebrooks is not a future all-star. I played for 15 years, those who cant do scout so no I dont believe everything they say and no I wont go waste my time twittering them. Now please go away.

Prospect ranking isn’t all about who has the most potential, it also takes into consideration proximity to the majors, so that fact that one is ranked higher doesn’t necessarily mean he has more potential. Boagerts has a ton more potential than Middlebrooks. (and if you still want to use rankings: John Sickels, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Keith Law all had Bogaerts as the Red Sox #1 prospect coming into the season, and with the exception of Fangraphs [who had him #2] they all had WMB at #3)

So one could make a couple of All-Star teams in his peak and the other has the potential to be a perennial All-Star (perennial meaning every year, and no mention of just in his peak seasons). That right there tells you that he think Bogaerts has the higher potential.

Exactly, MaineSox. I have no interest in Hanley. And I find it annoying seeing Sox fans ignorantly talking about trading WMB, particularly after the team has already traded away Youkilis. It’s not like good 3B-men grow on trees.

Especially after the year he is having it would be selling low. Unless they offer a good package I think they should keep him. He has the potential to be a very dominant pitcher and unless they get a big haul, they should risk that he returns to form. Same thing as with lester, the sox wouldn’t sell low on him now.

But in reality, who would take on morneau unless he fully recovers? Don’t think that Johnson would be worth it. I think they still have too many holes to plug this offseason too, that they are probably out of it next year too. No point trading for JJ if they won’t be competing, give the young guys a shot.

As a fan, I really think the Red Sox should sell. They might be mathematically in the picture but so are an awful lot of teams and I don’t see them surging down the stretch and really having a chance of contending against the other teams in the hunt. Plus, they could probably stand to rebuild a somewhat depleted farm system, especially with the market being so high already. Johnson will cost more than he’s worth and the last thing the Sox need is an injury-prone pitcher.

It is scary when Aaron Cook has been their best starter. I think they need to retool in the offseason, not have a firesale. They have too many big contracts to not be in contention. They get rid of daisuke this year, Bailey and Lackey should be back; and for them hopefully Agon returns to form.

Still don’t like it. He’s too injury prone and that’s been a big part of the Sox’ problem this season. Plus, that extra year will end up costing them more. They don’t necessarily need to have a fire sale but I don’t think they should be making any significant acquisitions.

If they’re going to add a pitcher it should be someone like JJ though, he’s under control for next year, so you can get a couple of draft picks when he leaves, and he’s a legitimate ace whose value is at a low point, so you take a chance on catching lightning in a bottle at a (relatively) low cost.

Red Sox side. Like PA35 mentioned, JBJr is the heir apparent to Ellsbury, and is rated as one of the Sox top 3 prospects. The Sox are going to have need of JBJr either in 2013 or 2014 when Ellsbury leaves for greener pastures.

I think they would. They realize their window is now and JJ will give them an even better chance to win now. And the fact that he is under team control for another year makes him more valuable than Hamels(who I think stays in PHI) and Greinke.

With his rising salary, injury history, and lack of results this season I just don’t see him being worth that kind of prospect. If they can get him, more power to them (I grew up a Sea Dogs fan when they were a Marlins affiliate, so the Marlins have always been my second favorite team), I just don’t see it happening.

Yes, there is a chance. And the window could get a little smaller if Hamilton leaves in the offseason. Why not trade your #2 prospect for an ace to go for it this year? One of the Rangers writers even said he’d trade Olt and a pitching prospect for JJ because he’s under contract for another year.

If they are going to make a trade, this is one that makes sense. They would have JJ for next year too, and they would be able to get draft compensation when he leaves, and you would be buying low on a guy who is one of the best in the game when he’s on.

Agreed. Gives y’all essentially two MLB ready prospects and us a chance to stop the bleeding that is our rotation. I hate giving up Olt, but a pitcher under control as good as JJ doesn’t come around very often.

That is way too much. Olt is going to be a very important piece to this organization in the coming years. I’d give up Martin Perez, and Leonys Martin, and like Barrett Loux. I can’t see the Rangers parting ways with Olt and Profar. They should be on an untouchable list. Olt is going to be a superstar, plain and simple.

Package of Lars Anderson/Keury De La Cruz/Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish could get the sox Josh Johnson.. Lars Anderson in the MLB now would be better than Gaby Sanchez, Keury De La Cruz has the highest potential (seems there is a player like Cruz in every big trade), Ryan Kalish is very solid defensively and will start in CF/LF, would really provide great depth, and Ryan Lavarnway is there starting C right now in the big leagues. Thoughts? JJ wouldn’t cost an elite prospect in my opinion. Maybe throw in another good prospect..

Lars Anderson would be almost a throw in, he would be the worst player in the deal and I still believe he can be successful, he has great power but no chance in Boston, Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish would start in Miami and Keury De La Cruz is a top prospect in the making . I would say Lavarnway is an A prospect because he is a hitting catcher, Kalish a B, Cruz a B+, Anderson a C+

I don’t think Anderson is ever going to be anything special, but I think he could be an OK player given the chance – he’s having a pretty good year this year (not trying to say I think he has any trade value, just that I’d like to see him get a shot somewhere because I think he could be an okay player).

Package of Lars Anderson/Keury De La Cruz/Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish could get the sox Josh Johnson.. Lars Anderson in the MLB now would be better than Gaby Sanchez, Keury De La Cruz has the highest potential (seems there is a player like Cruz in every big trade), Ryan Kalish is very solid defensively and will start in CF/LF, would really provide great depth, and Ryan Lavarnway is there starting C right now in the big leagues. Thoughts? JJ wouldn’t cost an elite prospect in my opinion. Maybe throw in another good prospect..

I can’t imagine it would take a ton in the way of prospects to get him at this point. He’s been injured a lot, and his results aren’t very good this year (his peripherals are still good, but he hasn’t been getting results), and he’s getting relatively expensive at this point.

Only problem is none of those guys will be traded. I’m not saying this is what they’ll do for sure but if I were the Marlins, it’s what I’d be demanding in return for JJ. But you do raise a good point about the Rangers being in a unique position able to win now and maybe for years to come. Only problem there is you don’t know for sure what Profar, Olt and the like will be in the bigs. Now their potential is through the roof but why not go for it now when they know they can win. Just my 2 cents. I’d pretty much take any decent haul for JJ at this point haha.

I was talking about CarGo, Upton, Felix; not those Rangers guys. Yeah, Daniels would do that deal any day for sure. I’m just not sure the Marlins would, but who knows with them anymore. Seems like they want to keep JJ but I think they should deal him now.