Monday, March 08, 2010

Yatseniuk makes his play

Following Viktor Yanukovych's victory in last month's presidential elections, PoR fully expected NUNS' parliamentary deputies [and others] to defect in droves and for a new pro-presidential coalition to be quickly formed.

Although Yulia Tymoshenko's has been sacked by VR, a majority of NUNS deputies are not yet ready to join a PoR-led coalition. PoR have been forced to change their tactics and embark on the passing of 'dodgy' anti-constitutional parliamentary procedure laws to enable a new coalition and cabinet of ministers to be established by a simple majority of deputies, rather than by fractions. As yet, no new laws on coalition building have been approved by the new president.

Some commentators consider that the latest maneouvre is a bluff to apply more pressure on NUNS deputies to 'cave in' and join PoR in a new coalition, the reasoning being: "There is still time for you to join us - there may even be some crumbs off the table for you, but if you don't, we'll manage without you in any case."

Though it is vitally important in the current economic mess a stable coalition and new cabinet is formed as quickly as possible, and though it would not necessarily cause much political damage inside the country, Yanukovych may, nevertheless be loathe to pass controversial laws so soon after becoming president.

Today young NUNS-ite Arseniy Yatseniuk, who came 4th in the recent presidential elections, has written an open letter to president Yanukovych with some interesting proposals.

Below is a quick summary:

The main task right now is "to unite the country at any price"

He proposes the following policies:

Passing of a realistic national budget, an audit of national debts, and approval of a financial stabilisation plan.

An effective anti-corruption campaign.

Reform of welfare system.

Implementation of a property tax.

Creation of an effective pension system.

Tax reform.

Reform of the energy sector.

Effective management of strategic assets .

Development of infrastructure.

Stabilisation of the banking system.

Changes in the education and medical sectors.

Development of the agrarian sector.

Also:

Question of Ukrainian as single state language is not negotiable, but Russian language to be granted protection by the state.

Russian Black Sea Fleet could remain in Ukrainian bases after 2017 but only if this approved by national referendum. Similarly for NATO membership.

Gas transport consortium not required - Ukraine is capable of running pipeline on its own. But Ukraine needs joint energy company to be formed with EU and Russian partners.

Yatseniuk proposes a three year moratorium on 'hot topics' to help unify the country, and the introduction of an open party list electoral system.

Importantly, he concludes: " Non constitutional attempts by parliamentarians to form a coalition and a government will lead to a deepening of the political crisis, so there are only two possible alternatives: formation of a majority exclusively on the basis of fractions, or pre-term elections".

He proposes the following solution the current impasse : "Announcement of early elections and the legitimate creation of a temporary coalition valid for a period of 60 days until elections can take place."

"Such a decision envisages formation of a caretaker government whose composition is to be determined by you [the president]. The fraction to which I belong should support this decision, but not take responsibility for the actions of this caretaker government, nor enter into it."

Early parliamentary elections would suit Yatseniuk well. After his performance in the presidential elections his political project, 'Front for Changes' could reasonably expect to gain about 30 parliamentary seats. Serhiy Tihipko, who came third in these elections would certainly do well too, he is in favour of early elections too [surprise, surprise] and has called PoR's attempts to change coalition-building rules in parliament "political piracy".