With Barnum getting healthy and Schofield playing well any chance we see one of two scenarios: Barnum takes over left guard, Schofield moves to right tackle and slide Huyge down to left guard or Barnum takes over right guard for Omehmeh? I'm partial to the former simply because of two 6' 7" 300 pounders on the edges, yes please.

–Thad

It might be too late to make that change. While Huyge has some experience at guard, that came under Rich Rodriguez, when pulling was not a major part of the offense. Putting him at G seems like an invitation to have the same issues Omameh is having with a different player.

I could see the straight Schofield-for-Huyge swap if the coaches believe Schofield is a much better pass protector. We have no evidence that's the case since he's only played guard, but if I had to bet I'd guess he is. It's tough to take a senior who's only had one bad game out, though.

Dear Brian,

Do you think Borges is leaving our base offense (and by that I mean Denard at QB, lots of RB runs interspersed with a few Denard runs and passes) too early? Against Michigan State and Purdue, our first drives worked to perfection and our run game seemed effective.

Immediately thereafter, we started running a lot of crazy reverses, reverse fakes, and Devin-centric chicanery instead of sticking with what worked. Why? it drives me crazy every week. Also, we seem to love to fake the run before we've even established our running threat. For obvious reasons, this hasn't been effective.

For coaches that talked a lot about man ball and the desire to establish a RB, we seem pretty eager to abandon Toussaint and the run game.

Mark Heid

I addressed this topic in a picture pages yesterday and got a couple inquiries about whether or not I thought Michigan's seeming lack of a base offense was a good or bad thing.

I'm not able to answer that yet. It's a thing. Whether it's good or bad is something we won't be able to tell for a while. I am sure I like it better than DeBord's zone offense, which was predictable and seemed to save every interesting tweak for the Citrus Bowl. I'm not sure if I like it better than the style of offense Michigan was using last year when the omnipresent threat of Denard's running often led to free touchdowns, or at least long drives before Michigan would turn the ball over. (YAY LAST YEAR.)

But you need opinions, no matter how flimsily justified. So: if I never hear "they did what we expected them to do" again it will be too soon. The only time someone's tried that this year was when Dantonio said something about how Michigan will run tunnel screens when Gallon is in the game as if he's a Calvin-Bell-style designated reverse guy. That is incorrect, so, like, thumbs up. Tentatively.

Why was Borges so terse on the bubble screen question – (btw did you ask it?). I wonder if it was because he expects the QBs to check into that play and it hasn’t been happening – perhaps he was protecting the players a bit?..

Aveek

The process by which questions about football—as opposed to feelingsball—are asked at press conferences is like so: Heiko goes to the pressers and sometimes asks questions that I've asked him to ask. Sometimes he just reads a bunch of blogs and asks questions the blogosphere has implied he should ask. The option responsibility Q posed to Mattison after NW was the former. The bubble screen Q was the latter. This is what happened:

Is the bubble screen ever going to be a part of your offense? “I’m not saying one thing about any bubble screens.”

Heiko is in intensive care recovering*. In lieu of flowers you can donate to the EFF.

So… why did the normally accessible Borges fire that off when asked about the lack of a bubble screen? I'm guessing he thinks the bubble screen is stupid. I'd like to find out why he thinks it's stupid since everyone from Dantonio to Rodriguez to Lloyd Carr made it a part of the offense to punish teams that tried to cheat inside or deep. His perspective on the thing would be interesting.

I doubt that it has anything to do with the players not making that check. For one, the alignments that seem to open up the bubble are usually trips formations featuring the #2 WR on the line of scrimmage. The latest BWS bubble complaint:

That makes for an awkward backwards orbit by the potential bubble guy and puts the main blocker in a less advantageous position than he would be if he was on the LOS. It seems clear that the bubble is just not installed.

As to why Borges isn't saying word one about the bubble, there seem to be two possibilities:

He is vaguely aware of the fan zeitgeist about this and is sick of these laymen bothering him about a stupid play.

He is going to bust it out as part of Michigan's ever-evolving baseless offense.

Meanwhile, between morphine doses I'm trying to get Heiko to ask questions that are less confrontational.

"I'm not saying one thing about any bubble screens," Borges said. "Everyone wants to ask about that play."

Door number one, then.

*[This is actually the second time Heiko's gotten acid in his face asking about something strategic. He asked Hoke whether he'd ever considered a spread punt and got this answer: "no." End of answer. It's not a surprise that coaches don't take kindly to random people implying heir decisions are not optimal, but it's kind of fun to ask anyway. As long as you're not Heiko.]

Hindsight in re: Three and Out.

Brian:

I know your criticism of the Hoke hiring, and I am not trying to bait you on this. With the benefit of hindsight, however, I keep asking myself whether a Hoke hire in 2007-08 would have been all that risky given what appears to have transpired (and actually did). It now seems like it would have been the safe move -- kind of like Bo elevating Gary Moeller, despite Moeller's horrendous record as a head coach at Illinois -- i.e., you don't lose to Northwestern in the late 70s solely because Illinois doesn't recruit well.

Obviously, what's done is done. But my opinions of Bill Martin and Lloyd Carr have been altered dramatically.

Let's just hope the Notre Dame coaching carousel of fun is not in UM's future. . . .

Daniel

I just don't see how you can hire a guy who is vastly under .500 in the MAC. At that point Hoke hadn't had his 12-1 season or turned around the perpetually moribund San Diego State. He was 22-36 in five years at Ball State.

I mean, envision this situation: the fanbase is even more up in arms about than they were in the brief period between Hoke's hiring and kidnapping Mattison from the Ravens. Martin does not want to shell out for Mattison. Mallett still probably leaves. The team is just as much of a tire fire in 2008. You probably get Threet to stick around the year after, but did he prove himself much better than Tate even given another year to redshirt and learn a system? Eh… not really.

Michigan still turns in a losing season its first year and is 7-5 at best in year two, at which point the coach has had one winning season, period, and has overseen the worst period in Michigan football since the 60s. Can Hoke recruit in that environment? Can anyone?

Unless you believe Hoke turns the tattered roster in 2008 and 2009 into significantly more wins than Rodriguez does—like five or six—he's doomed. I think that's a stretch. You can't cure John Ferrera flipping from DL to start at guard, can't cure the Threet/Sheridan QB combo, can't do much about the disaster zone in the secondary.

Michigan ran a guy with two BCS bowl wins out of town after three years. Were they going to keep a guy whose high water mark was a 7-5 MAC season longer? This is a fascinating hypothetical, actually. They just might have.

Correction.

It has been mentioned on the front page twice that Dungy was a broadcaster in 2007. This is off by a few years. 2009 was his first season out of coaching and in the role of studio analyst.

Er. Sorry about that, Bill Martin. Your coaching desires were crazier but less easy to evaluate than I expected.

Formation notes: Michigan spent the bulk of the first half in their nickel package with Ryan down on the line and Gordon and Johnson at nickel and safety, respectively. In the second half they took Johnson off in favor of using Ryan as a slot LB until Northwestern started their passing hurry-up on their fourth(!) drive.

Substitution notes: The usual defensive line substitutions, with Heininger and Black seeing frequent time, Campbell a little, and Washington maybe a snap or three. Michigan did briefly show Avery as the nickelback, but that only lasted a drive or two. Demens went the whole way; Morgan got a couple series late in the first half. Countess replaced Woolfolk in the second quarter and went the rest of the way.

Demens, Kovacs, Floyd, and Gordon didn't come off the field.

Show? Show.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

DForm

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O20

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

4

Bubble screen

Floyd

7

Hawthorne starts flowing up into the playfake and there's no one to the short side, leaving the slot all alone; Floyd is playing ten yards off. With Hawthorne positioned like he is there is no way he's making this play anyway. RPS -1.

O27

2

3

Shotgun trips

Nickel press

Pass

4

Out

Floyd

Inc

Floyd(+1, cover +1) is right there on the receiver's cut, forcing Persa to throw it perfectly—upfield and away from Floyd. He does so; WR has a shot at a decently tough catch and cannot make it. Rushing lane was opening up but Persa did not take it.

O27

3

3

Shotgun trips bunch

Nickel press

Pass

5

Drag

Demens

Inc

Demens lines up right over the center and rushes, trying to take the center out of the play as Martin(+0.5) stunts around. This basically works; center slides off on Martin and Demens(+1) uses that opportunity to shoot up into the pocket. He's about to sack when an in the grasp Persa chucks it inaccurately in the vicinity of a receiver Hawthorne(+1, cover +1) is all over; may have a PBU if ball is accurate. Pressure +1, RPS +1. This is really close to a sack, BTW.

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 14 min 1st Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O20

1

10

Shotgun empty quad bunch

Nickel press

Pass

5

Drag

Van Bergen

Inc (Pen +15)

Avery in as the nickelback. NW has a tight bunch to the wide side of the field and motions the tailback outside of those guys. Michigan is confused, with Demens eventually heading out there to deal with him, but late. Doesn't end up mattering this time. Michigan runs a twist that gets Roh(+0.5) through thanks to Martin(+1) threatening to shoot past the C. He's screwed either way. Persa has to dump it; RVB(+1) reads Persa's eyes and starts moving into the throwing lane, batting it down. Hawthorne(-1, cover -1) got beaten by Ebert on this drag and would have been able to turn it up for big yardage. Pressure +2. Roh picks up a roughing the passer call that is horsecrap. That's one step and then hit. Awful call. Refs -2.

O35

1

10

Pistol 2-back offset

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Veer triple option

Kovacs

5

Colter in at QB; Michigan seemingly misaligned with no reaction to the strong side and Kovacs lined up a couple yards behind the LBs. They do not comprehend Colter is in at QB. NW runs an option to the wide side. Both LBs and Roh(-2), the playside DE, suck up on the dive fake. Mattison said DE == QB so I'm –2ing every DE who tackles a dive guy or lets the QB outside. Even Kovacs hesitates; no one is tracking the pitch back at all. Roh does recover to string the play out a bit, and Kovacs flows hard, forcing a pitch a few yards downfield. Colter didn't make Kovacs take him, though, and he flows down to tackle, preventing this from becoming a big gain. I have no idea who's at fault here. Either Roh or Demens needs to get out on the pitch and Kovacs needs to do so as well. Kovacs(+1) for getting out as secondary support and making a tough tackle(+1). RPS -1.

O40

2

5

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

Woolfolk

14

Bler bler bler. Michigan has two guys to the wide side of the field that possesses three NW WRs. Those two guys are seven and ten yards off the LOS. Woolfolk(-1) then misses the tackle(-1) and turns this from seven into 13. RPS-1.

M46

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

4

Improv

Avery?

27

Black drops off into a zone before the play and Woolfolk blitzes from the other side. Unsurprisingly, this is picked up. Martin(+1) is coming through the line and is held; no call; Persa can flush outside of the pocket because Woolfolk got upfield. Outside of the pocket Persa is deadly; he finds a guy for a big gainer. Cover -1, Pressure -1, RPS -1.

M19

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

4

Dumpoff

Hawthorne

4

Yeesh, looks like Demens(-1) doesn't get enough of a drop and Johnson(-2) pulls up on a dig, leaving a post wide open for a touchdown (cover -2). Persa misses this and checks down. Hawthorne(+1, cover +1) with an immediate tackle. With Martin out and Campbell in there is no rush at all (pressure -2).

M15

2

6

Shotgun trips 2back

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Veer triple option

Kovacs

15

Trips plus two backs equals a covered up WR, equals run, equals massive frustration that this catches Michigan off guard. Ryan(-2) crashes down on the dive fake; Demens and Hawthorne move forward despite this obviously being an option and get sealed away; Demens is playside so –1. Kovacs(-1) misses a tackle(-1) at the ten but that could be harsh since he is the only player on the edge against two other players. If he takes a more conservative angle Colter pitches and the RB walks into the endzone. At least Kovacs had a shot here. RPS -2.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 8 min 1st Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O37

1

10

Pistol trips TE

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Speed option

Demens

12

RVB(+0.5) and Martin are coming at the QB hard, forcing a quick pitch. That should be advantage D since the DL are stringing the RB out quickly. Gordon(+0.5) comes up to maintain leverage, at which point... no one comes up to tackle. Demens(-2) had gone upfield around a blocker for no discernible reason and is late as a result. Martin can't quite make up for his mistake; Hawthorne(-0.5) is there seven yards downfield. His tackle(-1) is run through but does force the RB OOB.

O49

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

N/A

Flare screen

Van Bergen

3

Woolfolk(-0.5) is caught up in man coverage here and never realizes this is basically a run play; he ends up on his butt. Gordon(-0.5) has the same thing happen to him. Maybe that's harsh for press coverage. Demens(+1) and Van Bergen(+1) read the play and get out on it to hold it down, with RVB actually making the tackle.

M47

2

7

Shotgun empty TE

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Shovel pass

Hawthorne

2

Yeah, technically a pass, but this is a run play in UFR's book. This is a variation on the Florida TE shovel this blog raved about the past couple years, with Persa running outside at first and taking Gordon with him, then shoveling inside to the pulling TE, who is actually WR Drake Dunsmore, as they run power. Ryan(-1) blown up and out. Big hole. One guy in space against Hawthorne; if Dunsmore cuts behind the block either Roh hacks him down or it's a big gain; instead he runs right into Hawthorne. I guess Hawthorne gets a +1, Demens a +0.5, as they tackle(+1) in space for a minimal gain, but we got lucky.

M45

3

5

Shotgun trips bunch

Nickel press

Pass

6

Out

Gordon

6

Again with Demens lined up over the nose; Michigan sends the house. They don't get a free run and don't get a hurry (pressure -1) but they didn't give up anything big so no RPS -1. NW running some man-beater routes that force Gordon into an awkward path; this gets Ebert the step he needs to stab this pass one-handed and turn up the sideline for the first. Gordon was there to tackle so it's not like he did a bad job.

M39

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

3

Scramble

Ryan

5

Tempoed, Michigan only has two down linemen at the snap (RPS -1). As a result, Ryan is lost in no-man's land. Coverage(+1) is good downfield; Persa takes off, diving as Ryan comes in on him.

M34

1

10

Pistol 2-back offset

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Veer triple option

Hawthorne

23

Colter magical option formation, and they give despite again having Kovacs versus two guys on the edge. Maybe Colter was worried about Black. I'm not entirely sure about what goes wrong here but it seems to me like Campbell(+1) takes on a double and beats his man to the inside as the interior guy peels off, which means the RB has to go behind him and the C trying to get out on Hawthorne(-2) would have no angle if Hawthorne read this and made his NT right. Instead he and Demens are a foot away from each other and when the RB cuts behind Campbell there is no one there.

M11

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

4

Scramble

Hawthorne

4

Good coverage(+2) means Persa can't find anything despite having a long time (pressure -1). He eventually rolls out; Roh(+0.5) and Hawthorne(+0.5) remain on their receivers long enough to force a scramble and then come up quickly to hold it down.

M7

2

6

Pistol trips TE

Nickel press

Run

N/A

Speed option

Johnson

7

Demens(-2) again heads too far upfield too fast and gets himself into a lineman who ends up cutting him to the ground after they run down the line for a while. This is a speed option! Get outside! RVB(+0.5) forced a pitch and flowed down the line to make it difficult for the RB; Carvin Johnson(-1, tackling -1) comes up hard around the LOS and whiffs entirely. He does force a cut upfield, but because Demens is on his stomach the cut is not a modest gain but a touchdown.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 4 min 1st Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O7

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Zone read dive

Morgan

2

Morgan in for Hawthorne. Morgan(+1) bashes into the center at the LOS and drives him back on the dive; Martin(+1) fights through a double team, refusing to get sealed. When the G releases he's still playside of the T. With Heininger(+0.5) beating a single block there's nowhere to go.

O9

2

8

???

???

Pass

4

Scramble

???

6

Good coverage(+1) causes a flush but because the DL split so badly that was kind of obvious; no second read here. (Pressure -2). Not sure who to minus specifically because tape is cutting out at the beginning of this play.

O15

3

2

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Speed option?

???

12

Technical difficulties. We come back with the pitch already made. I am somewhat certain this is largely Demens's fault(-1), as he was lined up playside of Morgan presnap but when we come back Morgan is actually closer to the play. He then gets shot past the play. Morgan(-1) took a too-aggressive route around a WR and couldn't make the play; Johnson(+0.5) does come up to make a fill on a dangerous play, though his ankle tackle is maybe less than ideal.

O27

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

???

???

???

Inc

Apparently this is just a misthrow, but I don't know.

O27

2

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

???

Sack

Demens

-2

Oh, hell, BTN. I guess Demens(+1, pressure +1) is a minimum?

O24

3

13

Shotgun trips bunch

Nickel press

Penalty

N/A

False start

--

-5

Derp

O19

3

18

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Zone read dive

Black

6

Give up and punt.

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 11 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

M41

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

4

Hitch

Martin

7

Zone blitz drops Roh and sends Morgan. Martin(+1) slants around the G and C to get a run at Persa(pressure +1) and bats the ball. The thing still finds its way to the receiver, but the delay allows an immediate tackle... that Demens(-1, tackling -1) does not make.

M34

2

3

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Zone read stretch

Van Bergen

2

RVB(+2) shoves the playside OT back two yards, cutting off the outside and forcing a cutback. He disconnects when this happens and tackles himself for a minimal gain. Nice play; scary if he doesn't make this. Think he missed a check when Dunsmore motioned into play H-back, but he made up for it.

M32

3

1

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Zone read dive

Heininger

1

NW goes tempo. Heininger(+2) takes on a double and holds, going to his knees in the backfield and absorbing both guys without budging. Martin(+1) is single blocked. He stands his guy up and sheds inside to meet the RB a yard on the backfield. Momentum from him and a blitzing Morgan coming from behind gets the pile to the LOS but no farther.

M31

4

In

Pistol 2-back offset big

46 bear

Run

N/A

Speed option

Roh

-1

Roh(+3) takes on the playside TE and sheds him to the outside, then shoots up on Persa, forcing the pitch. Getting a forced pitch from a blocked guy is clutch here. Before the snap, Kovacs motions to Morgan, who takes a step shortside and then starts flowing hard; he takes the leading fullback's block, leaving Kovacs(+2, tackling +1) alone on the corner with the pitchback, who he cuts to the ground in the backfield. Watch Kovacs take the lighting quick path to the ballcarrier after the pitch. Baller. Also make no mistake: this is Roh's play at its heart.

Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 7-14, 8 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O18

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

Floyd

6

There by alignment with no one on the the slot and Morgan reacting to the zone fake. Floyd does as well as he can to get into the blocker at about five yards but help can't converge for seven. RPS -1

O24

2

4

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

Johnson

9

Another bubble by alignment; Gordon is over the slot but in these situations the guy grabs it and goes right up the hash, where there is no one. Johnson eventually fills and makes a dodgy tackle. RPS -1

Morgan(-1, cover -1) is now paranoid about the bubble, though he's not aligned any better, and starts outside as NW runs actual patterns. Slant is wide open. Persa throws it; Van Bergen(+1, pressure +1) bats it down as he's come inside on a stunt.

O40

3

3

Shotgun trips TE

Nickel even

Pass

5

Drag

Martin

19

Zone blitz sees Martin left in man coverage on Dunsmore on a drag. That goes about how you would expect. (Cover -1, RPS -1)

M41

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel press

Pass

4

Fade

Countess

39

No pressure(-2); huge pocket for Persa to step into. Countess(-1, cover -1) gets flat beat on a go route and is a step and a half behind the WR; even though it's a little underthrown and definitely in the defeat-Michael-Floyd zone he cannot catch up and gives up the big completion. Does get a hand on an arm, but it's that half step that kills him.

M2

1

G

Shotgun trips 2back

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Speed option

Gordon

2

Covered WR with Colter in. RB motions to the other side; Kovacs goes with him. Speed option to the plentiful WR side. Gordon(-1), Demens(-1), and Floyd(-1) get blown up and after Ryan forces the pitch the RB walks into the endzone. This is clever by NW: Kovacs is the guy with the pitchman so they get him out of the picture and exploit the LBs. RPS -1.

Martin(+1, pressure +1) goes right around the center and gets a hurry as Roh drops off and Morgan comes. Another zone blitz gets burned by the drag route as Roh cannot keep pace with Colter, RPS -1.

M36

1

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Comeback

--

13

No pressure(-2); Persa has plenty of time to survey and find the deep comeback coming open. Gordon the nearest guy but not really on him.

M23

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

4

Slant

Morgan

16

Morgan(-1, cover -1) beaten easily by Colter. Morgan(-1, tackling -1) then fails to tackle. Quick throw leaves little time for pressure but the lack of push from the DL is worrying. Why is Morgan in the game against a spread offense when you have Hawthorne available, especially on a two-minute drill?

M7

1

G

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Zone read keeper

Demens

4

Black(-1) doesn't get upfield, causing a pull. If he was crashing on a scrape that's one thing. Here he's in no-man's land. Demens(+1) sets up a lineman, getting into him and then pushing out into the space Persa occupies; Gordon(+0.5) also flows down to help tackle, though he had an easy time of it because Colter didn't even bother blocking.

M3

2

G

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel press

Run

5

Snag

Woolfolk

Inc

Pick play designed to beat man coverage. It does so but Persa is late, allowing Woolfolk(+1, cover +1) to recover and knock the ball out as it arrives. Pressure(-1) not getting to Persa.

Drive Notes: FG, 14-24, EOH. Refs are idiots about the time either way here.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O40

1

10

Shotgun trips TE

4-3 under

Run

N/A

Speed option

Ryan

-1

Ryan back at LB instead of DE and hanging out over the slot. They run a speed option; Ryan flies up on the edge. It kind of looks like he comes up on the QB and has just given the pitchman the edge but Persa doesn't think so, so we'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Ryan's(+2) excellent positioning prevents a pitch, forces Persa to cut it up, and results in nothing thanks to RVB(+1) and Martin(+0.5) flowing down the line well.

O39

2

11

Shotgun 3-wide

4-3 under

Pass

4

Sack

Martin

-5

Persa apparently looking at a hitch Floyd(+1, cover +1) has covered; he hesitates and never gets a second read because Martin(+2) bull-rushed the center back into him and Roh(+2) came under the left tackle; the two combine to sack. (Pressure +2) Hawthorne appears to have the TE seam covered; Countess is way off the hitch on the other side of the field.

O34

3

6

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel press

Pass

4

Seam

Van Bergen

Van Bergen(+2, pressure +2) rips through the RG and gets immediate pressure up the center of the field. Persa fires too far in front of his receiver; Johnson nearly digs out the pick. Route was a seam or skinny post that Gordon(+1, cover +1) was in coverage on; incidental contact with the feet caused the WR to fall. He looked in pretty good position, FWIW.

Drive Notes: Punt, 21-24, 9 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O18

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

4-3 under

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

--

6

Yay. Ryan is on the wide side slot but there's still no one over the short side, so they throw it. With Floyd playing very soft, no chance this doesn't pick up a pretty decent gain. Hawthorne does well to get out there and push him out before it's eight, I guess. RPS -1.

O24

2

4

Shotgun empty

4-3 under

Pass

4

Rollout

--

9

No one on the edge (pressure -2) and Persa can run or throw for the first. He chooses the throw, hitting the second receiver, who's drifting outside of Demens's zone. (Cover -1) Countess makes a quick tackle.

O35

1

10

Shotgun trips

4-3 under

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

--

6

argh argh argh. Ryan blitzes off the corner; Persa sees this and immediately throws the bubble without a mesh point. Gordon(+1) is the only guy out there. He gets into the slot guy at the LOS, getting outside and forcing a cutback, then disconnects to tackle after just five. RPS -1.

O41

2

4

Shotgun trips

4-3 under

Pass

5

Drag

Hawthorne

Int

Michigan tempoed and not aligned at the snap. Zone blitz gets Demens in but Martin(-1) has vacated his lane and Demens can't do anything about it as Persa steps up into the pocket. Receiver is moving to give Persa an option; he throws it to him for what will be seven yards and a first down if it doesn't derp off the guy's pads, allowing Hawthorne(+1) to make a diving interception.

Michigan spread out with LBs shaded over the slots so NW hits them inside. Martin(-1) fights through a block way upfield and opens up a big hole in the middle. Demens(-0.5) and Ryan(-0.5) sit back and accept blocks but at least they combine to force the guy into a tackle.

O25

2

4

Shotgun empty

4-3 even

Pass

4

Hitch

Countess

6

Schmidt motions out; there is a bunch to the wide side and then the RB outside of them. Quick hitch to the RB that Van Bergen(+1, pressure +1) actually deflects, but the ball still goes right to the RB. Countess(-1, cover -1) is really soft, giving up the first down despite the ball taking a long time to get there because of the deflection.

O31

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

4

Hitch

Floyd

10

Floyd(-1, cover -1) beaten pretty clean by Ebert; this is a five yard route on which Floyd is at the sticks on the catch. Ebert picks up the rest of the first down as a result.

O41

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Inside zone

Martin

2

Martin(+1) and Heininger(+1) hold up to blocks, closing off holes up the middle of the field. Mark manages to pick his way through little gaps for a few yards, but that will happen.

O43

2

8

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

5

Fly

Floyd

Inc (Pen +15)

Floyd in press; Michigan zone blitzes behind it. Gordon gets in free (pressure +1, RPS +1); Persa throws it to the fly route without really knowing if it's open. Floyd is there, gets his head around, and seems to break up the pass... and gets flagged. On replay, yes, he got his hand on the shoulder pad and prevented the guy from jumping for the ball. I'll take that though, since it's subtle and you can miss it. I still have to (-1, cover -1)

M42

1

10

Shotgun trips

4-3 even

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

Ryan

4

Finally something that looks like defense. Gordon(+0.5) flows up hard and Ryan gets outside of the slot blocker as Demens reads the throw and gets out there usefully. Ryan gets cut under; Gordon and Demens are there to tackle. As the WR is digging for an extra half yard Gordon(+3) strips the ball loose.

Drive Notes: Fumble, 35-24, 12 min 4th Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

D Form

Type

Rush

Play

Player

Yards

O31

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

4

Drag

Demens

5

M sitting back in an obvious four-man-rush zone as they work to not blow it; grades handed out with that in mind. Persa hits Colter underneath on a drag; Demens(+1, tackling +1) comes up to tackle immediately.

O36

2

5

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

4

Slant

Hawthorne

9

Hawthorne(-0.5) comes up on a not very convincing run fake and opens the slant up for a first down.

O45

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Run

N/A

Jet sweep

Gordon

6

Glerb. M blitzes into the sweep and Gordon(-1) widens out to blow it up; he misses the tackle(-1). This makes good play from Hawthorne and Demens to get outside their blockers bad play and the DL, slanting away from this on the snap, cannot pursue fast enough to prevent a gain.

M49

2

4

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

4

Circle

Floyd

6

Circle route high-lows the corner and Floyd sinks, opening up the short stuff.

M43

1

10

Shotgun empty

Nickel even

Pass

3

Cross

Gordon

Inc

Line slants right and Black drops off into a short zone... I think one of the LBs forgot to blitz. This means Persa has acres of space; he steps up and zings it to Colter... behind him. First down otherwise. (Pressure -2, cover -1)

M43

2

10

Shotgun trips

Nickel even

Pass

N/A

Bubble screen

Johnson

5

Late-arriving WR doesn't actually get into position so NW has five in the backfield. No call. These refs are idiots. NW throws the bubble and Michigan is finally playing it well. Gordon(+1) gets into the slot guy at the LOS in a good spot to force the WR upfield; Demens flows but misses; Johnson(+1) comes into finish with a good hit.

M38

3

5

Shotgun trips

3-3-5 press

Pass

4

Hitch

Countess

Inc

Michigan in tight man on the first down line; Persa's first read is Floyd(+1, cover +1), which is not a good idea. Second is Countess, still not a great idea but gotta throw it, so he does; Countess(+2, cover +1) breaks it up.

M38

4

5

Shotgun trips bunch

3-3-5 press

Pass

5

Sack

Kovacs

-10

Mattison sends Kovacs on a crazy ninja blitz from way deep; at the snap he's hurtling at the LOS at full speed. The seas part. Kovacs goes too high, though, and Persa ducks under his tackle. Tackle attempt pulls the helmet off, though, and that's a sack. RPS +2, Pressure +3—this was instant. Kovacs... +1, results based charting. And well timed blitz. Also wag of the high tackle finger. Gordon(+1, cover +1) breaks up the desperate improv throw Persa gets off after the helmet incident.

Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 35-24, 7 min 4th Q. Northwestern's last drive is down 18 with 2 minutes left and is not charted.

SECOND HALF DOMINANCE

Er. So. I don't really think so.

A WITCH

Yes, yes, probably, but the things that happened in the second half were:

Three and out, one contained speed option, two incompletions thanks to DL pressure.

Bubble, easy rollout hitch, bubble, drag route for first down that bounces off receiver's numbers to Hawthorne (sort of).

Hurry up pass mode w/ Michigan in soft zone, drive ends with Persa IN, five-yard bubble, and two good plays by the D.

So… the move to have Ryan in the slot didn't really slow down the bubbles, which went for 6, 6, 4, and 5 yards. This is better than the 8 they seemed to average in the first half, but it is not a thunderous shutdown of the spread.

There were three drives on which NW was actually running its offense. On one the adjustment got a speed option contained and then Michigan got some pressure. On two NW has just picked up its second easy first down if the WR doesn't bat it into the sky. On three they have second and six after picking up a couple first downs when Gordon yanks the ball loose. What happens if the WR doesn't DROPX the drag? If Ebert's knee is down? What is your confidence level that Michigan is going to stop Persa & Co. if these things don't happen?

VERY HIGH THANK YOU

Wait… are you Joe Paterno?

NO I AM YOUR FILTHY IRISH ALTER-EGO

I see. So… what I am saying is that the vaunted second half adjustments are little data being made big and what we saw in the first half was very frustrating to me. How do you stop a bubble aligned like this?

You don't. On Northwestern's final touchdown drive they ran three straight bubbles for 22 free yards. This is 2011. You should not have to adjust to the staple constraint play of the spread 'n' shred.

BUT MATTISON

Yes, well… I don't want to make too little data big again. I sure as hell don't know 10% of what he does and rushing to judgment about what Michigan's defense will look like once he's had them for three years is stupid. Mattison uber alles.

HOWEVA, it seemed like he was caught off guard by the spread 'n' shred. He's been in the NFL for three years but he was also the DC at Florida and Notre Dame over the increasingly spread-mad last decade of college football, so he should be familiar with it.

Were players not reacting appropriately? Maybe. Late the secondary did get more aggressive and helped hold the bubbles down. But that was the difference between 8 (or even 13) yards and 4-6. As I was UFRing this I was again thinking of Magee describing his philosophy, or rather WVU's defensive philosophy: they run the stack because it's built to stop the spread. Maybe Michigan needs a three-man-line package for games like this?

In any case, Mattison's admittedly hypothetical inability to deal with the spread 'n' shred in year one of his regime is a moot point. The remainder of Michigan's opponents are either pro-style (MSU, Iowa, sort of OSU), triple option (Illinois, Nebraska), or so incompetent it shouldn't matter (Purdue). I'm a bit worried that Fickell is installing a ton of bubbles right now, though.

DO YOU FIND THIS DEEPLY IRONIC

That Michigan can't defend a bubble but won't run a stretch because it's not preparing you for the Big Ten? Kinda. /ducks

Not as many plays as you might want but it's hard when everything goes outside.

Roh

6

2

4

Fourth down play; needs moar pass rush.

Brink

-

-

-

DNP

Heininger

3.5

-

3.5

No real problems, but not tested much.

Black

-

1

-1

Not much PT.

Campbell

1

-

1

One play.

TOTAL

30.5

5

25.5

Step back from last couple weeks.

Linebacker

Player

+

-

T

Notes

C. Gordon

-

-

-

DNP

Demens

5.5

9.5

-4

Did not get outside even on speed options.

Herron

-

-

-

DNP

Ryan

2

3.5

-1.5

Dodgy edge.

Fitzgerald

-

-

-

DNP

Jones

-

-

-

DNP

Evans

-

-

-

DNP

Beyer

-

-

-

DNP

Hawthorne

4.5

4

0.5

One big error on dive; good in coverage.

Morgan

1

4

-3

Struggled, pulled.

TOTAL

13

21

-8

Major problems containing.

Secondary

Player

+

-

T

Notes

Floyd

3

3

0

Push is good against Persa.

Avery

-

-

-

Didn't register.

Woolfolk

1

1.5

-0.5

Pulled.

Kovacs

4

1

3

Mostly neutralized because he had to try to tackle two dudes.

T. Gordon

8.5

2.5

6

Fumble half of the plus.

Countess

2

2

0

Beaten deep once, but also a push.

Johnson

1.5

4

-2.5

Not as bad as you might have thought.

TOTAL

20

14

6

Wow. I mean, no long stuff, right? Except the one.

Metrics

Pressure

16

17

-1

Bipolar day.

Coverage

13

15

-2

Not bad. Some issues getting RPSed.

Tackling

4

6

40%

Not a good day; this is what the spread tries to do.

RPS

4

15

-11

Killed by easy bubbles.

So… I ended up thinking that it was crazy that none of the linebackers could contain on the outside and hardly tried. When people keep leverage and force the guy inside, as Johnson did and Kovacs did and Gordon did, and there is no one to clean up from the inside that is a problem with a linebacker, and that linebacker was more often than not Demens. An example from Blue Seoul:

Seoul says Gordon has to do a better job getting off the block but he forces this upfield at the numbers and there is no linebacker to clean up; backside guy Hawthorne is even with Demens.

Seoul also caught my complaint about Demens on one of the option touchdowns:

Okay, Johnson missed. He missed to the inside, at which point a good D rallies to tackle.

Here a slow-reacting Demens gets caught up in an OL and cut to the ground. This is not even a triple option, it's a speed option, so, like… go. I've been taunting other LBs for being too aggressive this year but this is the alternative.

The rest of the chart is basically as expected. No safety got burned on the pass and the missed tackles from Johnson were not too bad; he is still a clear downgrade from the starters. Van Bergen and Martin are high quality players; Roh is doing better but we still need more pass rush from both defensive ends. The cornerbacks are much improved but still not outstanding. Michigan got about a push in both pressure (four sacks but also a number of plays on which Persa had a ton of time or broke contain) and cover, and Mattison was slayed dead on RPS.

Northwestern ran the veer option with a lot of success against this defense, and there seemed to be some confusion with the assignments. For those plays, whose assignment is the quarterback, and who has the pitch man? “That’s why people run the veer option. And again, to play an option team, you have to be very very disciplined. You have to really feel confident in what you’re doing, and it’s happening really fast. There was a number of times where you might have seen Jake go down and hit the dive. Well, our ends had the quarterback all day, so right away you knew, ‘Uh oh,” and sure enough, now you have two guys on the dive and nobody on the quarterback, and that’s why people run that offense. It taxes young guys. It really does. So your next thought is to stunt it a little bit, move it a little bit, to try to make a play, and that quarterback was pretty good. Fortunately we settled down in the second half and the guys said, ‘Okay I got it now.’ Every guy that made a mistake like that during the game, they came out, they looked right at you, and they went, ‘I know.’ I said, ‘I know, too! That’s 20 yards down the field.’ But I was really proud of them.”

If you had to defend them again, who would be assigned to whom? “We do the same thing. The only thing we do differently, if we defended it again, is we would play it more honest like you’re supposed to and not cheat to take away one part of the game and not the other.”

Did Kovacs have the pitch man? “That was his job. When you’re playing the option and you’re playing man coverage, there’s a guy with a blocker on him. A guy who has man coverage and still is supposed to get off and try to make that play. Well if you’re stronger, better, faster, you can throw that guy away and make that play. So we had Jordan going through the alley, meaning he would go dive, quarterback, to pitch, and he made some good plays on it.”

…you are wise in the ways of how MGoBlog differs from other media. I wanted to know how Michigan planned to defend the option so I thought I'd have Heiko ask and Mattison gave a terrific, useful answer*. So now we know that…

…defensive ends were a big problem. QB outside of DE without pitching is a problem. Here Kovacs gets a 2-for-1 by forcing a pitch and still getting out on the RB, but Colter would learn from this and juke Kovacs on his first touchdown run. I don't blame Kovacs much, if at all, because he's on the edge against two guys. Forcing it back inside and getting any tackle attempt at all is better than letting the pitch guy walk in.

It wasn't all bad for Roh:

That is one of the plays of the game and it happens because he beats a block to force a pitch and allows Kovacs to do what Kovacs does best: take a great angle at speed.

Ryan had similar problems, and then there is the Demens complaining. So: better play from the DEs to force the play inside of them or at least force a quick pitch and getting those linebackers to the edge more quickly.

*[How much does everyone love the coordinator pressers? One million points worth, right? I mean, they give it to you straight and give you actual information and reassure you that the guys in charge are really smart.]

PUNTSHENANIGANS

Yes, again this week:

When those guys miss their tackles there is no one within 15 yards. Result: 20 yard return.

Heroes?

Martin, Van Bergen, and Gordon. Gordon's strip was a 100% player-generated turnover that is a reason to believe they are being coached on these things.

Goats?

Demens, and the inability to line up to defend a bubble.

What does it mean for Michigan State and beyond?

Well, I'll be extremely nervous when we come up against Nebraska and Ohio State since their mobile quarterbacks could force us into situations that will exploit the same things. I just watched that game and it doesn't seem like either team spends a lot of time threatening bubbles; both enjoyed themselves some pistol offset stuff with Nebraska having great success running the inverted veer out of that diamond formation becoming all the rage. Either could gameplan for the M game—Ohio State might well start preparing whatever package they think will beat M because it's not like they have anything else to play for.

As for this weekend, Michigan State is the opposite of Northwestern and the 4-3 under will be a much more comfortable fit against State's largely pro-style offense. HOWEVA, we have seen State prepare special packages for M since time immemorial and one of the recent ones was a trips-TE bubble package that exploited M in 2008 like whoah. If that's still on the shelf they might bring it out and force Michigan to line up against it. HOWEVA HOWEVA, that year they could run the ball; this year M might be able to defend it without giving up those pitches that killed them that year.

Other items:

Michigan continued to prove the secondary is much improved and the safeties are for real, especially the starters.

The diary on poor tackling got me thinking about Rich Rod's coaching philosophy. It's obvious that he recruits speed and athletes on offense at not only the skill positions but also the o-line where he likes guys who can get out and block in space. These are the guys who get all the attention and the playing time. They are "the game breakers" and the guys who can make a big play at any time. How can that not transfer over to the defensive side of the ball? So, in the spring, we heard rumors about Cam Gordon having a great camp because he probably delivered some big hit kill shots to 4th string RBs instead of learning how to play assignment football with fundamentally sound tackling.

Am I way off here? Every yard after contact I see Michigan allow, I can't help but think how much better a (I can't believe I'm saying this) Jim Herrmann/Ron English defense was at stopping the run. We can chart how few upperclassmen we have on D until we are blue in the face but you have to concede that something is fundamentally wrong with the program's defensive attitude and philosophy. I think it just may be the constant search for "big time players" rather than smart football players who can read and react quickly.

What do you think?

Go Blue!

-Jim Dudnick BBA '01

Well… yeah, I guess, but like everything else on the defense the lack of depth and experience makes it hard to tell whether we're just seeing what would happen if Virginia Tech threw out a secondary full of underclassmen or if there's a long-term talent development problem. Is it a recruiting issue? Don't know. Rodriguez recruits at Michigan are all freshmen or sophomores, and if none of them are very good there's a pretty obvious reason why. Very few can "read and react quickly" as underclassmen.

Something is wrong with the program's defensive philosophy. That much is obvious. To me that problem is an incoherent coaching staff that either forces the coordinator to run a scheme he doesn't understand or forces the position coaches to do the same. Why is it so important for the position coaches to know what the defense is doing instead of getting JT Floyd to exist? I don't know, but those meddling kids have put Michigan in some goofy variant of the 3-3-5 for three years running and it hasn't done anything but implode because the defensive coordinator isn't really on board.

The problem with Michigan's philosophy on D appears to be the lack of one.

Not defense:

Brian-

While i think there are many things wrong with the Michigan football team right now, it seems like either the play calls or the reads have been restrictive in nature.

Last year, it seemed like on the read-option, there was a third option to pass to a receiver at the line of scrimmage that could catch and run for an easy 5 yds. Has this been replaced by the receiver running a skinny post?

Also, it seems a major component of any spread offense is the quick screens/pass to the slot receiver with the outside WR blocking down. The offense featured this last year but hasn't at all this year.

I believe the plays are in the offense's playbook. When Tate is in, there is a more even run/pass distribution. (ie- look at the easy 7 yds michigan could have had at the end of the Penn St game when Denard threw to Junior Hemingway and he dropped the ball)

The main point of all of this... It would seem that passing on the edge would open up the defense to make running in the middle a little bit easier.

Thanks for you coverage of Michigan. It makes my work day more enjoyable.

Brian

Opponents have been taking the bubble away by alignment. Iowa put a linebacker over him and managed to keep two-deep coverage. Penn State moved a safety down. When opponents have gone away from these schemes it hasn't taken Michigan long to hit the bubble for a nice gain, at which point they go back to taking it away. When Iowa started blitzing off the edge in the second quarter Michigan hit a couple bubbles and Iowa reverted to its previous scheme. Smart Football dubbed the bubble a "constraint play" way back in 2008, defining the concept like so:

What if your offense is based only on bubble screens and then you just run the ball or throw the ball as a counter to your bubble screen offense?

The difference is that the bubble screen is a play that really only works when the defense has made a structural choice or is out of position. Most commonly, you'll run when the bubble only when the defense has but two defenders to cover three receivers. You thus block the two defenders and the receiver has free yards. If the defense puts a third defender there they can take the play away, intercept it, or make the tackle.

Conversely, a well designed dropback pass play, a triple option play, or certain base runs will work every time you face a normal defense. The only time the play stops working is when certain defenders cheat on their assignments, either by alignment or aggressiveness.

You're right that the edge passing opens up the interior running, but it's already a reason Michigan's ground game has been so effective, and a reason that things like Kevin Koger 60 yard touchdowns happen.

The bubble option after a zone read keeper is still being run but it's not being thrown. I imagine they've de-emphasized it because when it has been thrown it's not usually getting more than a few yards and if that's your upside you might as well let Denard carry it. The equation changes radically when he's running the ball instead of Forcier.

More defense:

Brian,

Chip Kelly said a week or so ago he has nothing to do with his defense, he just leaves that side of the ball to his defensive coordinator. GERG has championship rings on multiple levels. Why can't RR just let him do his thing? It seems to me that if Rich Rod just worried about the offense and let GERG do the D, Michigan might be better off.

Simon Kay

The other side of the complaint about Rodriguez not being involved enough in the defense. This is an unanswerable question. I'm not sure why there was an insurrection against Scott Shafer in 2008—well, okay, I have some idea since Michigan refused to put Brandon Harrison on the field—or why the 2009 defense spent most of its time in an eight-man front or why Michigan decided to install every front imaginable this year.

It's clear, however, that the position coaches are forcing the coordinators to adapt to them (again, this is exactly what happened in Tommy Tuberville's final year at Auburn) and the results are dismal.

Whether or not turning the defense over to Greg Robinson would help any is debatable. He has never built an effective college defense. After getting fired from the Chiefs he had a single year at Texas during which he turned in the same level of performance the DCs before and after him did. Then he went to Syracuse and could not field a minimally competent unit after his first year—the team went backwards fast and stopped in the triple digits. While he got a rep for being a good position coach last year it's obvious that the linebackers we can actually compare across '09 and '10 did not progress much over the offseason. Ezeh was the same, Mouton is a little better but still prone to the same mistakes he's made throughout his career. No one else has never seen the light of day before this year.

At this point there is no case for keeping him around. There is no reason to expect anything but failure from him; some good NFL defenses with the Broncos are now a decade old. All the reasons the defense should be bad are still valid, but the only way to salvage Rodriguez's job is to bring in a defensive coaching staff with proven recent success that cannot be undermined by whatever the deal is with the current assistants, whichever of them stay around.

Widgetz:

Good Afternoon,

In response to your recent post about the blood drive where you said: “I should put up a ticker that says 1343 DAYS SINCE OHIO STATE BEAT MICHIGAN AT BLEEDING. Ain't got no other tickers to put up” there is indeed a slightly more noteworthy streak that is still intact. Michigan’s Mens rowing team has beaten OSU’s mens rowing team 14 consecutive years at their annual dual race. According to the team’s website this streak is the longest continuous streak for Michigan over OSU in any sport ever (at least where head-to-head meetings are applicable). The matchup takes place right before the annual football game (with the first win coming in November 1996), so in my approximation this streak is at about 5,085 days or so and counting. Thought you might like that nugget of info.

Essentials

Run Offense vs State

The brahs are all like "OMG Greg Jones" as if Manti Te'o isn't a faster, better version of him, assuring everyone who will listen and their poor disappointed mothers that sometime in the second quarter Jones will violently disembowel Denard so a funeral can be held at halftime.

Unfortunately for the brahs, the State defense hasn't lived up to those proclamations. Aided by an injury, MSU held Wisconsin's John Clay somewhat in check. He managed 80 yards on 17 carries, 4.7 per. They didn't do so hot against his backup James White, a smaller, speedier guy who averaged almost 10 YPC. Between the two primary tailbacks Wisconsin had 178 yards on 27 carries, 6.6 a pop. (White, a freshman, was also responsible for a couple of terrible blitz pickups.) A couple of those long runs came when MSU sucked inside and got punished by bounce-outs because of irresponsible play; against Denard Robinson getting irresponsible is six points conceded.

Meanwhile, ND's Armando Allen averaged 5.5 YPC on just 13 carries, though MSU did keep ND's other tailbacks down. Overall, ND tailbacks averaged 4.5 YPC, almost exactly what they managed against Michigan. I think we know what happens when Michigan's rushing offense goes against the Michigan defense.

That's it as far as useful comparisons go. Western Michigan is 114th and Florida Atlantic 116th in rush offense, and Northern Colorado is a 2-3 I-AA team.

So that seems encouraging, but Michigan was expecting to run against Michigan State last year and ended up averaging one yard per carry. Brown and Minor combined to for 17 yards on 10 carries. This was the first inkling that Michigan's rushing offense was something of a mirage:

Forcier kept the ball when he should have handed it off, most painfully on Michigan's overtime drive where a veer play absolutely had State for a ton of yards and maybe a touchdown but Forcier kept it and was forced to follow Minor into the hole for only four. Twice Brown burst into the open field with a lead blocker and naught but one player between him and the endzone and both times Brown and the lead blocker failed to beat that one guy. Martavious Odoms took a reverse and had absolutely cavernous space to cut up into but did not realize it until far too late and slipped making his cut. On several plays State had left themselves open for a big cutback run behind the center but the tailbacks did not take it. And, yes, the right side of the line repeatedly failed to crease State's DL or chop the backside DT when plays went away from it. State did a good job—on both of those potential big gainers the State player in question made a huge, touchdown saving tackle—but Michigan left a ton of yards on the field.

The offensive line was blown up, too. On GS's run chart your winner was Mark Ortmann's +1.

There were plenty of reasons for this, foremost David Molk's injury and the shuffling it imposed on the defensive line. David Moosman played center, adding another bad snap to the pair that killed drives in the Indiana game. Huyge played right guard and struggled so badly that journeyman John Ferrara got a drive or two in case he was better; Dorrestein was forced into the lineup at right tackle and struggled.

This year, Molk is back, Patrick Omameh has ascended to the starting right guard job and has performed at an all-conference level after a rough start against UConn, and donkey-hating Taylor Lewan has forced his way into the starting lineup past Huyge. Schilling and Dorrestein return as better players. And Michigan has the most dangerous runner in the country taking snaps.

State, meanwhile, lost Oren Wilson and Trevor Anderson from last year's defensive line. Anderson's been replaced by the clunky 6'7" Tyler Hoover, a redshirt sophomore who is a version of Greg Banks minus some of the veteran savvy. Wilson's replacement is a platoon of Kevin Pickelman and Blake Treadwell. MSU returns DT Jerel Worthy, their best DL by some distance, and meh DE Colin "Cam" Neely. Neely and Pickelman missed the Wisconsin game but will return this weekend. Their linebackers are senior versions of last year's guys.

Michigan linemen are from space. They voted for Zoltan and everything. If you put them in space they and the mountain goat receivers will show you your O-I'm-on-the-ground-and-Denard-is-fast face.

Michigan is going to get yards against this defense, but the torrid pace—7.1 YPC, first nationally and a full yard better than all but six teams—they're on should cool off somewhat. If MSU is intent on leaving the safeties back, this will be a steady drip of five, eight, ten yards. If they go Indiana on things it will be more erratic but prone to bigger plays. One key: will Michigan break out the midline option or the veer that Oregon (and now Nebraska) are slicing defenses apart with? Worthy is a guy who just tears after people; he could be exploitable against the midline. Michigan hasn't had to do anything new except pop out a pulling lineman or two; this is the week to deploy a completely new package.

Key matchup: Schilling, Molk, and Omameh versus Worthy and Pickelman/Treadwell. Last year State owned this matchup. Worthy is a quality player but the other defensive tackle is something of a weak spot; Michigan must win this matchup to get second-level players out on the State linebackers and keep the ground machine operating at full death.

Pass Offense vs State

That is terrible, and large parts of it can be blamed on the absence of one David Molk. People who would not have been playing otherwise picked up –7 and one bad Moosman snap was given –1: more than half of the 15 negative points assigned to specific players on the line are attributable in ways direct or indirect to Molk's foot.

Michigan's offensive line gave up five(!) passes (or attempts to pass) that were marked "pressure"; Forcier also added ten more attempts that were IN, BR, or TA, including the fatal super triple BR on the OT interception. Three flat drops did not help matters. Forcier managed to go 17/32 for 223 yards despite this, but the offense operated in fits and starts and relied on a burst of Stonum athleticism and desperation to get its two touchdowns.

That is not likely to repeat this year. For one, Michigan's tied for first nationally in sacks allowed with one thanks to a combination of Denard running, massive progress on the OL, and opponents being terrified of Denard breaking contain. Meanwhile, after losing Trevor Anderson and Oren Wilson, Michigan State is in the triple digits when it comes to acquiring sacks. They've got five; even Michigan's three-man rush is doing better (yes, yes, against an avalanche of passing spreads). When Michigan drops back to pass they'll have time.

Despite the lack of rush, State's pass defense has been at least decent:

Opponent

Att

Cmp

Pct

Yds

TD

INT

YPA

Notre Dame

55

32

58%

369

4

1

6.7

Wisconsin

25

11

44%

127

1

0

5.1

Notre Dame racked up a bunch of yards and touchdowns but took 55 throws to get there and didn't put up a huge YPA; Wisconsin got thunked. A large portion of the latter was Tolzien having a bad day and Nick Toon dropping everything that came his way (and subsequently complained about not getting enough opportunities!). Even so, Michigan State has not been lit up in the same way Michigan has. A large part of that is the return of Johnny Adams from injury. Their okay senior corner (Chris L. Rucker) also managed to not explode his ankle, so they've got that going for them.

Even if the outside guys are kept in check, this could be a big day for slots. It appears that ninja-kicking former walk-on Jon Misch is going to be the weakside linebacker who spends much of his day hovering in the vicinity of the slots; the fact that he's in a true battle with hyped sophomore Chris Norman is probably not so good for State. MSU cornerbacks have also been historically poor at tackling, leaving bubble screens attractive options, and the main reason Notre Dame couldn't exploit MSU's addiction to the 4-3 was this equivalency: Stephen Threet : screen :: Dayne Crist : screen.

Robinson will have to throw more than usual and in some uncomfortable situations; this will depress his remarkable efficiency ratings. He should still have enough opportunities to hit big plays in the passing game to win.

Key matchup: Magee and friends versus hyperactive Michigan State run defense. We've seen it all year: Denard takes a step forward, causing the entire defense to fly downhill at him, then flicks a pass to Roundtree that he runs into or near the endzone no matter how far away from it he is. While State's probably spent time on defending that particular iteration of Denard Automatic Play Action, there will be other opportunities to rack up RPS +3; in this game Michigan is going to have to lean more towards balance on first down to prevent the drive-stalling two yard plays that happen when a team sells out, Tecmo Bowl-style, and gets it right.

Run Defense vs State

Michigan's run defense isn't good but it's probably better than the pass defense; against State they will be severely tested. Edwin Baker, Le'Veon Bell, and Larry Caper are all quality backs in the same mold: big, fast tackle-breakers slightly light on the shimmy. Bell has more RAGE, Baker more breakaway speed. Caper is returning from injury and may have gotten Wally Pipped by Bell, a who-dat recruit out of Columbus who arrived in a chariot of thunder and said "surprise!" They're all OR on the depth chart, but Caper's had six carries in MSU's two actual games. He is OR in name only.

The other guys:

Opp

Player

Att

Yds

TD

YPC

ND

Edwin Baker

14

90

1

6.4

ND

Le'Veon Bell

17

114

1

6.7

UW

Edwin Baker

18

87

0

4.8

UW

Le'Veon Bell

16

75

0

4.7

That's… uh… kind of terrifying, actually.

Michigan's most relevant outing was the opener against UConn and their similarly power-heavy stone age offense; in that game Jordan Todman had 20 carries for 105 yards, 5.3 per. That's not awful; Todman is legit. In his two other games against D-I foes he put up 192 on a Temple and 190 on Vandy. While those aren't the greatest opponents UConn returned Todman and four offensive lineman from last year's #39 rush offense and appear to be picking up at or above where they left off.

Oh, wait, right: UMass. Crap. Michigan also got imploded by UMass on a series of counters and power running plays on which the linebackers got lost. While Mouton and Ezeh played much better in the two games since the opponents were Bowling Green and Indiana, two passing spreads with no clue how to run the ball that are allergic to pulling linemen. Any hope derived from those games should be vague and humble.

HOWEVA, after watching the Wisconsin game I'm weirdly optimistic Michigan can not die in a fire. Wisconsin's DL was in the backfield a lot and big chunks of MSU's rushing yards came on a misdirection fourth and one pitch and an instance where Wisconsin was badly misaligned against a full house backfield. When it came to just lining up and running it State didn't open many holes. Their tailbacks did drag tacklers all day. If Michigan's linebackers have their heads on straight I can see something similar going down where Michigan does enough to force a bunch of second and long.

Simple power plays and zone stuff probably won't go very well but State has to run it to set up the rest of their offense of counters and play action; I bet the counters are consistent gashers and the regular stuff pops a run or two but also sees a lot of two-yard gains. Some of these will get up to four or five thanks to the quality tailbacks; by the end of the day numbers similar to the UW game are likely.

Key matchup: Cam Gordon run support versus backbreaking long runs. MSU's rush offense is the usual old-school thing Michigan fans will remember from Lloyd Carr's days: a lot of grinding, a lot of meh results, the occasional long gainer that happens when someone busts an assignment or a tackle. For Michigan to keep MSU's numbers in the Wisconsin-or-below range Gordon is going to have to go 10/10 on opportunities to take down MSU backs breaking past the linebackers.

Pass Defense vs State

HAI GUYS I'M THE MICHIGAN SECONDARY

You know the story on Michigan's side of the ball. When it comes to Michigan State, they still have Kirk Cousins. Cousins is a somewhat mobile pocket passer with good accuracy who makes a lot of excellent decisions… and two or three mind-boggling throws per game.

He usually does the latter bit when he's pressured. He has a tendency to chuck the balls Ben Chappell was tossing into the stands at covered receivers. He threw two interceptions against Wisconsin, one horrible, one a ball deflected at the line that seemed like it was going directly to a double-covered receiver and was going to be picked off anyway. In the second half he got lucky on a back-foot throw that could have been a pick-six if it was more accurate.

State's receivers are analogous to Michigan's—a solid unit without a Braylon/Plaxico superhero. Mark Dell, Keshawn Martin, and BJ Cunningham have split receptions almost right down the middle, and if you squish MSU's two TEs into one body you can say the same thing about Charlie Gantt and Brian Linthicum. There is no one go-to guy. If you're pigeonholing, Martin is the explosive slot guy, Cunningham the big possession guy whose ability downfield comes more from muscle than speed, and Dell a pretty good generic outside receiver. To compare them to Michigan guys: a poor man's Steve Breaston, Junior Hemingway, and… uh… a rich man's Ron Bellamy? There isn't really a good Michigan analogue for Dell. Anyway, it doesn't really matter who they are because they will be open. State's receivers have had a case of the dropsies this season, FWIW.

BlueSeoul picked out a specific thing State does well that Michigan's defense has seen a lot of in practice but still can't defend: the bubble.

Prepare yourself for this. Michigan is going to put either James Rogers or a freshman out on the outside. One will be playing in the parking lot; the other will get blocked into the parking lot. Michigan State is going to eat up yards on bubble screens, and you will be enraged.

This looks like a functional passing game run by something that's not a duck. This means doom so far as it's possible. Will Michigan State abandon its usual gameplan of "run or play action on 80% of first downs" in an effort to attack the Michigan secondary? Probably not since it's not likely anyone will mistake the M run defense for the 2006 unit. Will they have considerably more success on third down than they should? Yes.

Key matchup: Martin and Roh versus the MSU OL. Michigan has the opportunity to pick off some passes of their own if Cousins is dealing. Sometimes this happens when receivers are covered and he just tries to MAKE PLAYS; usually its an artifact of someone getting in on Cousins. The turnover margin will be huge, and Michigan should have an advantage if they get quarterback pressure.

Special Teams

An advantage for Michigan State. Martin returned a punt for a touchdown against Wisconsin and the Spartans have one of those kicker guys. Dan Conroy is 7/7 on the year. They're also averaging 38 net yards on punts, which is around 40th nationally. Michigan can't return punts or kick field goals and freshman punter Will Hagerup is still working through the jitters. Hagerup seems to be coming around, but Michigan hasn't even attempted a field goal since the first half against UMass and seems happy to keep it that way.

Will it matter? Maybe not. Special teams have not played a major role in Michigan's last few games because touchdowns have been plentiful, and both kickoff return units are weak. Michigan's probably going to go for it on fourth and reasonable distance once they crack the MSU 40 until game theory concerns kick in late. MSU is more likely to make their field goals and more likely to get a big punt return; the net effect of that bonus will either be negligible or large with little in-between.

Key matchup: STOP KICKING THE DAMN BALL

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Denard allows his usual backup quarterback cameo, and continue worrying until he returns to the field.

MSU's line is kicking M's ass again.

This jumping the snap business happens again.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

Michigan State's maligned defensive coordinator leaves the safeties back in a Norm Parker-style adherence to old principles in the face of new technology.

A significant new addition (midline, veer) to the running game leaves MSU's defensive gameplan in shambles.

Roh rushes the passer lots.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 6 (Baseline 5; –1 for Michigan State's First Road Game Unless You Count Playing In Front Of Sixteen Fans In Detroit, +1 for They Hit Wisconsin Upside The Head With Ten Pounds Of Ham, –1 for Previous Defensive Performances Say Michigan Can Run Lots, +1 for Competent Passing Offense Versus Sack Of Confused Cats, +1 for Oh God What If Field Goals Are Relevant, –1 for Denard!, –1 for Vegas Is In The Tank For M, +1 for Annual Crazy Michigan State Over-Preparation, +1 for No Reason Except The Lump In The Throat.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Would Be The Definitive 2010 Is Not 2009 Answer, +1 for Would Force Inane Media Narratives To Switch To A Different, Less Annoying Inanity, +1 for Would Cause Uppity State Fans To STFU, +1 for The Alternative About The Annoying State Fans Is Horrible To Contemplate, +1 for Constant Rich Rodriguez Job Rescue Campaign)

Loss will cause me to... get really annoyed at the little Dantonio head growing out of my shoulder. I mean, you think it's annoying now, let me tell you… man.

Win will cause me to... forcibly suppress any ideas Michigan might be playing Ohio State for the Big Ten title at the end of the year.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Well… dammit. I didn't really know what would happen against UConn. I didn't really know what would happen against Notre Dame. And I don't really know here. Is Wisconsin the top-ten team I was terrified of before the season or was last year a mirage? Is Indiana's passing offense really a high-powered knife cannon aimed directly at the Big Ten's tingly bits? Denard? Greg Jones?

There is a common opponent:

Michigan beat Notre Dame 28-24, outgaining the Irish by a narrow margin if you discount ND's last drive on which Michigan was happy to cede 40 yards. The game was on the road, but Dayne Crist missed a quarter and a half. Michigan missed two field goals, but why wouldn't they miss two more against MSU?

Michigan State beat Notre Dame 34-31 in overtime on the trick field goal. Yardage was basically dead even. The game was at home, but Crist went the whole way.

This tells us nothing. At the end of regulation ND had four extra points against State. The home-road flip is worth another six. A reasonable estimate of how many points Crist's absence cost Notre Dame is ten. Flarbity doo, I'm wearing a shoe.

So: I think Michigan's offense is not going to slow down much against what is likely a mediocre Big ten defense. Their drives will be longer because MSU is not a flamingly awful Big Ten defense, but the overall efficacy of them won't be too far off the high level they've established so far this year. I think State will do much the same to M. The home/road flip should be good for a stop or two; Michigan's defense will not be the wasteland it was against Indiana if only because they'll be going up against an offense less suited to torch it; the freshmen defensive backs will have more of a clue; Michigan is likely to end up in the black in TO margin since a somewhat pick-prone Cousins will be putting the ball up more frequently than Denard.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

MSU safeties combine for more tackles than Greg Jones.

Denard goes for 150 on the ground.

Michigan finally looks like they've prepared for this game specifically.

Personnel notes: I don't think I saw Webb or Savoy all game. The offensive line was the same as the Indiana game but at some point in the second half Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, at least briefly.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

O14

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

-2

Okay, so 1) State's response to the bubble is the same as Indiana's: have the safety freak out about it as soon as he sees the route. With MSU in press coverage that really invites Michigan to go over the top; they never really do. 2) On the run here State's defensive tackles slant inside, coming around the attempted stretch blocks way too quickly for Michigan to handle and getting right into the backfield. This play is specifically designed to combat stretch blocking, but State doesn't run it again.

O16

2

12

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Sack

Koger

-3

Basically the zone read fake into the Koger flat route; State is prepared for this, too, with the DE shooting right past Koger without waiting and forcing Forcier upfield, where he gets sacked. (PR, 0, protection N/A)

O19

3

15

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Wheel

Brown

Inc

Michigan State blitzes and has an umbrella behind it, getting a guy in unblocked. Forcier's hot read is Brown coming out of the backfield; he doesn't look for the ball and it falls incomplete. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, team -2)

Drive Notes: FG(36), 3-0, 12 min 1st Q. Very disappointing; clearly Dantonio has gameplans for the exact things Michigan has shown so far and Michigan just plays into them. Same stuff happened last year. Just gap block some stuff and bring out new plays against Michigan State; they obviously spent Wisconsin week preparing for M. They weren't preparing for Wisconsin.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M28

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read inside

Brown

2

Backside DT shoots upfield immediately on the snap, driving Schilling back and forcing Brown to cut it upfield, where a crashing defensive end tackles him for a minimal gain. Safety had the bubble, WLB the contain.

M30

2

8

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Bubble screen

Brown

3

Michigan empties the backfield and tries to use this to run a bubble to the short side of the field. Brown picks up like three yards; he's got no room since it's the short side of the field. (CA, 3, screen)

M33

3

5

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Throwaway

--

Inc

Anderson comes crashing around the end but there's a very nice pocket for Forcier to step up into and throw; instead he peels out to the sideline, finding no one and throwing the ball away. These looked like deep routes, maybe four verticals; the unnecessary scramble likely killed the play. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 1 min 1st Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M8

1

10

Ace

1

2

2

Base 4-3

Pass

Waggle Post

Koger

Inc

Zone fake into a rollout with some decent pressure but Forcier's able to get a pass off to Koger. Koger's got a step and throw that's a little bit upfield or arced a little more might be complete but the coverage is very good and the safety makes a play on the ball. Good all around. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)

M8

2

10

I-Form 3-wide

2

0

3

4-3 Under

Pass

Rollout out

Grady

Inc

Plenty of room as Michigan is attacking the fact that safeties are in man against Michigan's slot receivers. Grady(19) is wide open for a first down, hit in the hands, and... drop. Bler. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

M8

3

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Improv bomb

Koger

41

Really weird D from State as the three DL rush and then three(!) linebackers just kind of hang out at the LOS. Very odd. I know you want to contain Forcier but jeez. Grady pops a DE—he's in pass protect because the waiting LBs have drawn a couple of OL. DE then gets outside, avoiding a Minor block and causing Forcier to flush. Forcier chucks it up and Koger adjusts to his back shoulder, dragging in a big gainer. (DO?, 1, protection 2/3, Minor -1)

M49

1

10

Shotgun 2TE 3-wide

0

2

3

Base 4-3

Run

QB off tackle

Robinson

0

Robinson in; Forcier spread wide. I think this is supposed to and should go outside the tackle as the TE comes off to seal the SLB and it would be Robinson and a safety one-on-one but he cuts it up into no room. Jones got playside of the backside guard and there's not much in the way of creases.

M49

2

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Slant

Koger

Inc

Playing off the bubble over-reaction, this is wide open and will go for near first-down yardage; Koger drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

M49

3

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Scramble

Forcier

10

State sends five and drops a couple guys off into zones; field is pretty open. Forcier(+1) sees it open up and decisively decides to step up in the pocket and take off, picking up the first down, albeit barely. So decisive that I thought this was a QB draw at first; it's not. Not charting this as a TA, FWIW.

O41

1

10

Ace Twins

1

2

2

Base 4-3

Run

Inside Zone

Brown

1

Backside scoop goes all wrong as Huyge(-1) doesn't get much push and actually falls a bit, leaving Dorrestein no angle to block his guy and letting said guy playside and into the backfield. Brown's reaction is to cut back into an unblocked linebacker/DB; these are true eight-man fronts they're running against.

O40

2

9

Shotgun Diamond

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Improv Hitch

Stonum

7

Fake bubble with the trio of guys going into pass routes; that's Forcier's first read. Not there, and then an MSU stunt sees Dorrestein(-1) whiff outside, then take a diving whiff inside. First whiff causes Forcier to start scrambling out; should just step up and fire or something. He eventually finds Stonum on the backside of the formation for a decent gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Dorrestein -1)

O33

3

2

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Hitch

Odoms

4

Quick tempo sees State align in a two-deep shell, which leaves one guy trying to cover two on one side of the formation. Forcier reads it and throws a quick hitch to Odoms for the first down. It's low and unnecessarily difficult for Odoms; he digs it out. (MA, ,2, protection 1/1)

O29

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Sack

--

0

PA fake into what looks like the same bubble fake to slant we saw earlier; backside defensive end sits there and then shoots up as Forcier hesitates. DE's on him and he has to cut it up, attempting to lose as little as possible. (PR, NA, NA)

O29

2

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout out

Odoms

11

So here's one advantage of the backside DE trying to contain the zone counter dive: he delays instead of trying to get out on Forcier, allowing Minor to chop him easily. This is the same play as the earlier Grady drop: slot out can't be covered by a safety, hit between the numbers. This time it's caught. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

O18

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Run

Minor Yakety

Minor

-4

Not really sure what the intent is here since Brown and Minor collide soon after Minor grabs a handoff; he ends up tackled in the backfield because of the delay.

O22

2

14

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Penalty

Offsides

--

5

Oops.

O17

2

9

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Draw

Brown

6

Wow, this opens up cavernously as Moosman kicks one of the DTs out the intended hole and the other one rushes himself out o the play. Huyge(-1) pulls around and is one-on-one with Jones; Jones ninjitsus him and makes a tackle on Brown a few yards downfield. Pile falls forward; a Jones block is probably first and goal. Brown could get some blame for not setting this block up, too.

O11

3

3

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Sack

--

-10

Forcier fumbles a poor snap on an intended rollout, which allows a blitzing linebacker to close and tackle. On Moosman. (PR, NA, pressure 0/2, team -1, Moosman -1) Odoms was open for the first if this snap was efficiently delivered.

Drive Notes: FG(42), 6-7, 4 min 2nd Q. Aigh Molk donde esta?

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

PA Sack

--

-7

Hard to tell if this is supposed to set up in the pocket or get outside; I think outside because they're pulling Schilling around to give some backside pass blocking on Anderson. Huyge(-2) gets pushed back, delaying Schilling, and then gets spun off of; when Forcier cuts back inside because Anderson is outside of Schilling the DT is there to sack. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Huyge -2). Note Huyge is at RG and Dorrestein RT.

M13

2

17

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

-1

Ortmann and Schilling actually get a crease here but Koger(-1), who's set up as the H-back but dives inside of Ortmann, runs right by Gordon, which means he's sitting in the hole unblocked and tackles.

M12

3

18

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Fly

Mathews

Inc

Max protect and three fly routes into lots of coverage. State is again doing that weird thing where they just leave three linebackers sitting a couple yards downfield; if Michigan was running a post or something here maybe they get an opportunity to make a first down. Instead its all covered fly routes and Forcier just chucks one well upfield of a covered Mathews. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: Punt, 6-10, 13 min 3rd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M7

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

7

Argh. State's blitzing both linebackers right up the middle and Michigan runs by it, doubling the playside DT because there's no one to block on the second level anyway. Schilling(+1) does get a good crease for Brown. Brown is into the secondary and has a lead blocker in Minor; Minor(-1) is one-on-one with the filling safety with a block likely to spring Brown for 93... he whiffs.

M14

2

3

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel

Run

Zone read stretch

Brown

2

Same play. State's playside DT does a better job of flowing down the line and prevents himself from getting creased. Worthy avoids a lame Dorrestein(-1) attempt at a cut, flows down the line, and tackles on the cutback. A block from Dorrestein also gets Brown a lot of yards here.

M16

3

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Run

QB off tackle

Forcier

1

On Huyge(-1) and Moosman, who get no push on Worthy and make no crease here. This is not really State being prepared for this play or doing something special, it's just the OL being inadequate. Forcier cuts it up, hitting the back of Huyge and going down like an inch short of the first down.

M17

4

In

Punt

-

-

-

-

Run

BLERG

Zoltan

BLERG

BLLERG. Note: a reader suggested this was not really Mesko's fault because state guys got in too fast and would have blocked a rugby punt. On review: no way. Mesko had plenty of time to get a punt off but brought it down immediately to run. Just an unbelievable brain explosion. The protection was sliding, so it was a called rugby punt a la the Notre Dame fake from a year ago; Mesko's head blew up.

Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs, 6-10, 7 min 3rd Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M11

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Flare screen

Brown

5

I don't know, I always think the timing on this is messed up but it works sometimes. Odoms(+1) cuts the nickelback to the ground and Schilling gets Jones, but a quick-filling safety is up on Brown before he can get much in the way of yardage. (CA, 3 , screen)

M16

2

5

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel

Pass

Rollout out

Odoms

9

A freeze play where M catches State offsides; Forcier rolls out and finds Odoms on an out as he reaches the sideline. (CA, 2, protection N/A)

M25

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read stretch

Minor

2

State shifted away from this and Michigan should have a good opportunity to pick up some yards here but Minor(-1) misses a massive cutback opportunity as Ortmann had cut the backside DT to pieces and the frontside has been slanted to and jammed; Brown runs by a couple of guys outside of their blockers and lets Anderson and Gordon track Minor down as he passes the LOS.

M27

2

8

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Sack

--

-3

Ferrara(-3) straight up smoked by an MSU DT, yielding quick pressure up the middle and a sack. (PR, 0, protection 0/3, Ferrara -3) Also note that it's Huyge who's gotten pulled, with Dorrestein still at tackle.

M30

3

11

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Improv

Stonum

10

Dorrestein(-2) smoked by Anderson, forcing Forcier out of the pocket. He manages to find Stonum on the move and zing one to him despite tight coverage; it's low and Stonum digs it out (DO, 1, protection 0/2, Dorrestein -2)

Robinson in. This is on Odoms(-1), who fails to recognize that he can cut it upfield into a lot of space and be one-on-one with a safety for the house until way too late; he then slips to the turf trying to make that cut way too late.

M29

2

14

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout scramble

--

2

Robinson rolls out, finds no one, and starts running around as the rollout has run out of time. He eventually gets to the line of scrimmage-ish. (TA, 0, protection 1/1)

M31

3

12

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Sack

--

-12

Somewhat decent time but not great time as Dorrestein(-1) and Minor(-1) eventually lose guys at the same time; Robinson can scramble away from one but only into the other. (TA, 0, protection 2/4, Minor -1, Dorrestein -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 6-20, 13 min 4th Q. Forcier should have come back after the first down loss.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

O46

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Improv cross

Hemingway

9 + 15

Forcier scrambles up as the MSU DEs come screaming around the corner; this may actually be intended to flush Forcier outside like this because MSU has a spy who takes off after him as he breaks the pocket. Hemingway has run a little crossing route and the screamin' linebacker has vacated that area, so Forcier hits him; Hemingway can turn up for some YAC. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, but tentative) State gets a roughing call afterwards. It's pretty terrible, as Hemingway wasn't down and I didn't hear a whistle.

O22

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Rollout hitch

Stonum

11

Forcier rolls out with the aid of an excellent block from Minor on the corner, finding Stonum open along the sideline for about seven. Stonum jukes the first guy, picks up a first down, and fumbles the ball as he's going to ground. Argh. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: Fumble, 10 min 4th Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M31

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Post

Roundtree

Inc

Roundtree? Ok, I guess. Good pocket this time allows Forcier to step up and fire just as Roundtree's break to the inside gets him clear of his man. Could be a big gainer but it's just in front of him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

M31

2

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

RB Hitch?

Minor

Inc

Er? This is basically a wheel route from Minor except he stops on it two yards downfield. Hitch, I guess. Another good pocket and the coverage gets run off, leaving Minor wide open. Forcier goes to him... just as he falls down for no reason. Ack. (CA, um... 1, protection 2/2)

M31

3

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Improv

Roundtree

Inc

Forcier can't find anyone; sort of looks like he's got a slant or two here but he doesn't throw it, allowing pressure to eventually break through, at least sort of. He starts running around, possibly without needing to, and eventually pulls up to hit Roundtree a couple yards short of the first. It's on the money but late, so Roundtree gets pounded as the ball arrives and drops it. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: Punt, 6-20, 8 min 4th Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M32

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Improv Hitch

Hemingway

9

A vast panoply of time sees Forcier sit and survey forever, finding no one. Pressure finally comes and he has to scramble out. As he reaches the sideline he chucks it at Hemingway and not incidentally a Michigan State safety, who has this covered and could possibly intercept but doesn't as Hemingway yanks it away for nine yards. Brilliant? Idiotic? I don't know. I'm filing this a BR. (BR, 2, protection 2/2)

M41

2

1

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

TE Seam

Koger

Inc

Zone read fake to the bubble fake to the TE slant Michigan's run a lot. State has a guy sitting on it in a zone; a slant is either broken up or a pick six. In what looks like a brilliant adjustment by both Forcier and Koger, Koger shoots upfield a bit, turning this into a seam, and Forcier lets it fly, hitting Koger between the numbers in a tight window between the corner and safety. Koger... drops it. Aigh. Safety coming over to blast him helped. (DO, 2, protection NA)

M41

3

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Rollout deep Hitch

Stonum

59

Minor gets a block on the edge defender and Stonum bursts open 20 yards downfield with only a late-arriving safety attempting to rein him in. He scoots inside of him, loping for the endzone. At the ten he stiffarms the last resistance and glides in. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) Replay.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 13-20, 4 min 4th Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M8

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Hitch

Stonum

9

State playing way off, which would be GERG BUBBLE frustrating to me as an MSU fan. Stonum just runs a hitch and is wide open despite no one throwing him the ball for a while. Forcier surveys, does not find anything he likes, and then flushes a bit, finding Stonum on the sideline for nine. He gets OOB. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

M17

2

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Rollout out

Odoms

Inc

Shorter out than the other outs as MSU is in zone but Forcier finds Odoms open for what should a first down; he throws it low and Odoms can't dig out a tough catch. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)

M17

3

1

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Run

Zone read keeper

Forcier

10

So there's no slot to Forcier's side of the field on this and therefore no contain defender out there; the DE slides down the line as he's been coached to do all week because of the zone counter dive, leaving the corner open. Forcier pulls it out and grabs the first down plus a good bit more.

M27

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Wheel

Brown

2 (Pen +15)

Michigan gets MSU to jump. Spartan players come in unimpeded because of the freeze play, forcing Forcier to dump it to Brown, who gets lit up, dropping the ball. (CA, 1, protection NA) No matter. State also gets a roughing call afterwards. They take the roughing.

M42

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Bubble counter

Odoms

9

Finally they run this and M catches it. This is a variant of their flare screen type thing where Odoms goes on a bubble route, drawing the requisite bubble freak out, then dives inside for a jailbreak screen. And this is open for days and days but for Moosman's inability to block or cut the LB spying on Forcier. Odoms has to cut behind the mess and gets tracked down just short of the sticks. (CA, 3, screen)

O49

2

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Run

Zone read keeper

Forcier

12

Same thing, with the DE crashing down like a mother and no State contain in their pass D package opening up tons of space for Forcier. He would have 10, 20 more if he didn't slip on the turf due to the rain.

O37

1

10

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Unicorn dust

Stonum

12

Jesus H Hopscotching Christ. Forcier has no protection because of the empty set, can't handle a low, wet snap from Moosman, and has an unblocked corner coming in ready to provide certain doom. He manages to grab the ball, slide up in the pocket past two blitzers, abort a planned scramble when another linebacker comes charging up, and peg Stonum for a first down. Jebus. (DO++, 2, protection 0/2, team)

O25

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel

Pass

Post

Mathews

Inc

Aigh! Forcier's first read is Brown on the wheel but he delays coming out of the backfield, faking a block on a DE, and gets covered as a result. Forcier comes off him, zipping forward in the pocket past a rusher and unleashing a ball at a wide open Mathews in the endzone... it's to Tacopants. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

O25

2

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

Nickel

Pass

Fly

Mathews

Inc

Actually comes with a half-roll to the opposite side of the field. Forcier pulls up and comes back to the near side of the field—no safeties. Mathews, as per usual, is pretty covered, but he does have a step on his guy. Ball is OOB. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

O25

3

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Rollout scramble

Forcier

14

Rollout sucks everyone to the wide side of the field; Ortmann(-1) lets an MSU DE by that Schilling(+1) manages to dive at and take off his feet with help from the slippery track. Forcier looks over to avoid him, notices the wide open space to that side, and takes off. He's nearing the first down but not there yet when he spins inside a linebacker and still gets OOB. (TA, 0, protection 1/2, Ortmann -1)

O11

1

10

Shotgun Trips

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

Rollout scramble

Forcier

2

A very similar play to the last one with a rollout and Forcier looking back for Mathews but deciding he's covered. He sees an opening to the side opposite the rollout; this time a DT has peeled around to chase him and tackles at the ankles. Forcier fumbles out of bounds... Michigan was screwed otherwise, because he was coming down in bounds. (TA, NA, protection 2/2)

O9

2

8

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

3-3-5 Nickel

Pass

AIGH NO

Mathews

Inc

Forcier fumbles the snap, can't pick it up, finally gets it, no pressure, but he's panicking, and just lofts one into a zillion people that ACTUALLY HITS MATHEWS IN THE FACE MASK, but is dropped. What the hell? If this is complete everyone would explode. (BR, 2, protection 2/2)

State's contain guy here is actually a safety, so he's away from the LOS. This allows Forcier some room; safety forms up and tackles.

O20

2

5

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout out

Odoms

7

State lining up a LB inside of Odoms in preparation for a run; Michigan rolls the pocket and has Odoms run an out. Open, Forcier throws, Odoms grabs it as he nears the sidelines. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

O13

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Run

Zone read keeper

Forcier

3

State blitzes a linebacker inside and then stunts a defensive end outside of the tackle; the play here is actually the veer Michigan's run a lot and Minor could be poised to zip up into the safeties if he just gets the damn ball; Forcier keeps it. He does have the good sense to see the two guys outside and use Minor as a lead blocker, picking up four . Minor would have been quicker to the hole and more likely to pound someone; if this was actually a read Forcier messed it up.

O10

2

7

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel

Run

Zone read veer

Minor

2

Um. So again Minor is shooting right upfield with an intent to hit it up quickly when the D overreacts to the stretch, and Michigan pulls Koger around to block the backside DE... Koger just runs right by him. So the DE tackles.

O8

3

5

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 4-3

Pass

Rollout deep cross

Odoms

Int

Michigan rolls the pocket and floods one side the the field; Forcier needs to get rid of it because a blitz confuses the OL and lets Worthy through unblocked. (Ortmann -2, his missed pickup). Forcier might have Koger on a short cross for first down yardage; instead, pressured, he chucks it at a very covered Odoms. Things happen afterwards that are not good. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2). On replay you can see Odoms slowing up, possibly preparing to break back the other way if Forcier gets scrambly, which allows the safety to overtake him. Error on his part?

Goddamn. You wouldn't know it because of all the pressure and the drops killing his stats, but Forcier had a spectacular day. His downfield success rate* was 71%, which is up there with Chad Henne's best game. Chad Henne's best games didn't come with game-killing overtime interceptions, sure. He made three and a half terrible decisions throwing the ball (with the half being the bomb to Koger) and some additional ones in the ground game.

But does anyone remember the "Sheridan Might Start!" meme? Will anyone own up to actually advancing that point of view? No? No.

*((DO + CA) / All Throws Not Marked MA or PR)

There are two man reasons Forcier's numbers didn't live up to the chart above. Reason the first:

This Game

Totals

Player

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Hemingway

-

-

1/1

1/1

2

-

1/1

6/6

Mathews

2

-

0/1

-

7

1/4

1/2

6/6

Stonum

-

1/1

1/1

4/4

1

1/2

3/4

8/8

Savoy

-

-

-

-

2

-

0/1

3/3

Odoms

-

0/1

2/2

3/3

3

1/2

3/4

10/11

Grady-19

-

-

-

0/1

2

-

1/1

8/11

Roundtree

1

-

1/2

-

1

-

1/2

-

Rogers

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Koger

-

1/2

0/1

0/1

-

2/3

2/3

5/6

Webb

-

-

-

-

1

-

-

2/3

Minor

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Brown

-

0/1

-

2/3

-

1/3

1/1

5/6

Shaw

-

-

-

-

-

-

0/1

-

Smith

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Moundros

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

That is three flat drops (Brown's "drop" was not looking for the hot route) and three catchable balls that were not brought in. Add the drops and maybe one or two of the tougher catches and Forcier is now at 22/32 for 260-280 yards and his performance looks almost identical to the Notre Dame game where he unleashed his inner Superman.

That is terrible, and large parts of it can be blamed on the absence of one David Molk. People who would not have been playing otherwise picked up –7 and one bad Moosman snap was given –1: more than half of the 15 negative points assigned to specific players on the line are attributable in ways direct or indirect to Molk's foot. And that's not even considering his keenly-felt absence from the run game.

Not going out on a limb: if Molk is healthy Michigan wins. When he got injured and Rodriguez called him Michigan's best player on offense he wasn't kidding. He might not be right, but he was serious.

So the right side of the line just can't block?

It appears so. Michigan again went with Huyge and Dorrestein on the right side and got so discontent with this arrangement that Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, who immediately gave up a crushing sack. GS's run chart is up early enough to directly reference it this week, so: both Huyge and Dorrestein ended up –2, with Ferrara picking up a –1. It's not like the rest of the team covered themselves in glory—your winner on the OL is +1 Ortmann—but there were major problems on the right side of the line in both pass protection and against the run.

All this invites one question: where is supposed new mega-star Patrick Omamaeh? Omameh was the projected starter at right tackle in the spring and now can't find the field despite serious issues over yonder. He remains a redshirt freshman and shouldn't be written off but if he was going to be an uber-star he'd find his way onto the field before a journeyman like Dorrestein. As per usual, the preseason hype machine run by mysterious insiders is of questionable validity.

Is that what happened to the ground game?

Partially. It was odd. On the first play of the game Michigan State brought out this crazy slant that came around the stretch blocks from the other side and crushed Michigan's first offensive play.

I've seen a couple other teams try this—the team foremost in my mind was Penn State last year—get gashed doing it, and then quit. Wisconsin and Penn State used to do this against the DeBord stretch all the time and since Michigan had very little in the way of counters, it worked very well. But IIRC this was about the only time State brought that out.

So it didn't seem that schematic. What I saw happen: Michigan got a reduced number of opportunities because of the game situation and on those limited opportunities there was a ton of terrible execution. Forcier kept the ball when he should have handed it off, most painfully on Michigan's overtime drive where a veer play absolutely had State for a ton of yards and maybe a touchdown but Forcier kept it and was forced to follow Minor into the hole for only four. Twice Brown burst into the open field with a lead blocker and naught but one player between him and the endzone and both times Brown and the lead blocker failed to beat that one guy. Martavious Odoms took a reverse and had absolutely cavernous space to cut up into but did not realize it until far too late and slipped making his cut. On several plays State had left themselves open for a big cutback run behind the center but the tailbacks did not take it. And, yes, the right side of the line repeatedly failed to crease State's DL or chop the backside DT when plays went away from it. State did a good job—on both of those potential big gainers the State player in question made a huge, touchdown saving tackle—but Michigan left a ton of yards on the field. Chalk that up to youth, first road game, rain, injury, whatever.

Why can't we throw the bubble? Everyone else can.

This is why:

Opposing safeties are zooming down into the box to handle it as soon as they see the fake there. Michigan needs to counter this, and quickly, but not with the outside receiver, which is a play that works but doesn't put the fear of God into opponents. Michigan broke out the counter screen to this on the 92-yard drive to tie the game:

And that's something that if it catches the right defense and the right safety/LB freakout will bust for a touchdown. Look for it more.

Heroes?

Tate. Tate Tate Tate. Also Stonum.

Goats?

The right side of the line. Also Stonum for fumbling. And Greg Mathews has a remarkable knack for getting Forcier to overthrow him or target him in situations where he absolutely should not be targeted.

What does it mean for Iowa and beyond?

Tate is still working on becoming a pocket passer but he put in another Notre Dame-level performance last weekend and every game we get like that is further evidence that he just plays at that level and will do so in the future. Yes, he remains a freshman too prone to scramble out of the pocket and too ready to chuck it into a mess of opponents. There is almost nothing else to criticize.

The run game had a horrible, largely self-inflicted day in a limited sample size. Adjustments should be lowered a bit, especially for the Iowa game, but going forward Michigan should do much better than they did against State. Getting Molk back is key.

Michigan got some clarity on the wide receiver positions: Savoy was not targeted and Grady took a seat after his initial drop. Odoms, Mathews, Stonum, and Hemingway appear to be the main guys there, with Stonum the man who gad the most looks (6). Could he be emerging into the deep threat he was reputed to be? Let's hope so.

Picture Pages: you see, Rudy, sometimes you just need to break down a play that's representative of a larger trend. This series picks out a play or two per game that seem significant in the grand scheme of things, Theo, and attempts to explain why. Vanessa.

I brought this up in UFR and wanted to make it clearer so here goes. This is a first and 15 on Michigan's first drive of the day.

Michigan lines up in one of their common sets, a three-wide shotgun look. Here the tight end is lined up as an H-back. Michigan often used the h-back as a pass blocker for Forcier rollouts, but this time he's going to go with the play. Western aligns in a 4-3 look with the nickel back shaded inside of the slot receiver. Michigan will run a zone read, and Western will do a version of a scrape exchange. In brief: in a scrape, the backside defensive end will take off after the tailback instead of maintaining contain. A weakside linebacker or corner will provide QB contain, thus hopefully minimizing or eliminating the quarterback's athleticism edge over the defender he's dealing with.

Below is the handoff point. As Western did basically the whole game, the unblocked backside end takes off after the tailback. Since this is the guy Forcier is reading, he pulls the ball out. A couple points: Michigan has six blockers against six defenders here and should be content to hand the ball off. As we'll see, Brown's going to end up with a lot of room.

A few moments later we see the scraper coming in: he's the corner/LB who was lined up over Grady. He comes flying in and threatens to tackle Forcier in the backfield. The scrape exchange Michigan saw a lot last year saw the WLB head outside; this one is less vulnerable to the veer or other quick-hitting backside plays that exploit the fact that your WLB is flying around the edge. But there's an obvious cost: HOLY GOD LOOK AT THE SLOT RECEIVER.

Forcier is, in fact, looking at a spectacularly open guy on a bubble route. One of the Western safeties is coming up but he's inside of and ten yards away from a guy who's quicker than him. At best he squares up and holds the gain down. If he misses a tackle Grady is born to run.

Also note the line moving to the second level and sealing those defensive tackles. Michigan had three or four plays like this where the tailback shot up to cavernous gaps in the line of scrimmage without the ball. And this isn't a reaction to Forcier's decision to pull the ball yet; only the WLB has seen that. The frames above make it pretty clear that if Michigan had handed the ball off Schilling was going to cut this guy off.

Forcier, unfortunately, decides against the bubble and cuts directly upfield:

Molk has finished burying the playside DT and if Brown had the ball he'd be cruising, as the WLB who peeled off to Forcier was about to get his clock cleaned by Schilling. But Forcier pulled the ball and then made a poor read, so he's got one option:

Four yards.

Takeaways:

Just because the backside DE is crashing down doesn't mean you have to pull the ball. This would have been a big gainer if Forcier handed it off.

Scrape exchanges are not a magic pill. They pull defenders out of position and the right play call—or read—can exploit them.

Forcier is, yes, a freshman. He made a number of mistakes against Western of this variety.

But even so it's nice to have a guy like Forcier who can turn his mistake into positive yards. Michigan had a lot of screwups in game one but most of them still went forward. That's a huge difference from last year.