Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Nowhere to Go But Up?

Frank wonders if the Tigers are coming at a discount this year based on the results in Sportsline.

Detroit Tigers seem to have been discounted (no doubt because they burned their fans and owners last year). Bonderman $5, Granderson $28, Sheffield $2, Verlander $16 (he went for $28 last year), and even Miguel Cabrera $40 (he went for $46 in '08) attracted less interest this year. Nate Robertson didn't even garner a bid. Last year's expectations may have been misplaced, but there's bound to be an undervalued Bengal somewhere in the bunch this year.

I thought I'd look at the converse of the Dustin Pedroia effect. Do players who slipped badly one year bounce back in the next?

Top 10 "Losers" 2006-2007; 2008 Hitters

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

AP

SW

2007

2006

1

Nick Johnson

$2

$4

-2

$14

$4

$23

2

Vernon Wells

$22

$23

-1

$25

$25

$13

$33

3

Jermaine Dye

$29

$20

+9

$18

$17

$16

$36

4

Juan Rivera

$8

$2

+6

$1

$2

$2

$21

5

Lyle Overbay

$14

$13

+1

$14

$16

$5

$24

6

Joe Crede

$10

$5

+5

$10

$4

$1

$20

7

Ray Durham

$13

$5

+8

$3

$4

$8

$25

8

Rich Aurilia

$11

$2

+9

$2

$3

$20

9

Reed Johnson

$13

$1

+12

$5

$3

$1

$18

10

Jason Bay

$29

$21

+8

$21

$20

$14

$31

Average

$15

$10

+6

$11

$10

$6

$25

They do, though not as much as you might expect.

Based solely on the expectations of the market, Alex Patton, and Sports Weekly they sure do, though. Fifteen dollars worth of stats for $10 worth of investment might not sound like much, but if you can spread these kinds of profits across your team, you're probably going to win.

As far as the Tigers go, most of them came pretty close to my bid prices one way or the other. Cabrera and Granderson were actually $4 and $3 over, respectively. My sheet price on Verlander was $20, but I can see why owners didn't push; he definitely looked worn down at the end of '08, and there's speculation that he might be hurt. And Sheffield was part of the elongated endgame; he was a pretty significant bargain at $2, but that had much less with him being a Tiger and more to do with where he came up in the auction.

Another way to look at this is that Granderson (plus $6), Cabrera (+$8), Carlos Guillen (+$7), and even Brandon Inge (+$4) went for more than they earned last year. Sure, Granderson, Guillen and Inge could bounce back, but it seems to me like this is already built into the prices they went for.

So who are the players who fell on their faces in 2008 who might bounce back in 2009?