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December 22, 2013

[The former vice
president, Riek Machar, has denied any involvement in a coup attempt, accusing
the president of using the unrest as a pretext to crack down on his opponents.
But while both sides debate what ignited the fighting, the aftermath has taken
on a life of its own, revealing longstanding tensions in a fledgling new nation
that international officials worry could ultimately tear it apart.]

By Isma’il Kushkush

Tony Karumba/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Young men sat in a vehicle at the United Nations Mission in South Sudan compound

in Juba as ethnic tensions remained high.

KHARTOUM, Sudan — He sat among tens of thousands of terrified people crammed into
the United Nations compound, most of them women and children, taking notes
about their desperate rush to safety. Like them, he had come seeking
protection.

“They came to my house,”
the man, Biel Boutros Biel, a human rights activist, said of the South Sudanese
security forces. “I knew they were coming after me.”

The former vice
president, Riek Machar, has denied any involvement in a coup attempt, accusing
the president of using the unrest as a pretext to crack down on his opponents.
But while both sides debate what ignited the fighting, the aftermath has taken
on a life of its own, revealing longstanding tensions in a fledgling new nation
that international officials worry could ultimately tear it apart.

“Today, that future is
at risk,” President Obama said in a statement on Thursday. “South Sudan stands
at the precipice. Recent fighting threatens to plunge South Sudan back into the
dark days of its past.”

Events are unfolding
fast. United States aircraft sent to evacuate Americans came under fire on
Saturday, wounding four soldiers. Rebels are believed to have taken control of
some of the country’s oil fields and alliances are shifting.

Like many conflicts in
this tenuous nation, the fighting has taken on an ethnic dimension, human
rights workers say. Mr. Machar, the former vice president removed over the
summer when Mr. Kiir summarily dismissed his entire cabinet, is a Nuer. The
president belongs to the majority Dinka ethnic group.

In the capital, South
Sudanese forces have targeted members of the Nuer ethnic group, killing many
and detaining others, including soldiers, lawmakers and students, rights
workers and refuge seekers say.

But outside the capital,
in Jonglei State, the reverse has occurred as well, with Nuer militiamen
targeting Dinka, descending on United Nations compounds where thousands of
civilians have fled for safety and carrying out attacks on oil facilities that
have resulted in what the Security Council called “the heavy loss of life”
among workers.

“We are deeply concerned
that ethnically based attacks on all sides will lead to revenge attacks and
more violence,” Daniel Bekele, Africa director at Human Rights Watch, said in a
statement.

Other observers have
said that politics, not ethnicity, are driving the conflict.

“It is a power
struggle,” said Zacharia Diing Akol, an analyst at the Sudd Institute in Juba.
“Ethnicity is an afterthought.”

South Sudan became independent in 2011 when it broke
away from its neighbor to the north, Sudan, after decades of civil war. Now,
critics accuse South Sudan’s president, Mr. Kiir, of being an autocrat who
oversees a government marred by corruption, mismanagement and a lack of
freedom.

Opponents of Mr. Machar,
on the other hand, see him as an opportunist who changed sides during the civil
war against Sudan to gain advantages for himself and his fellow Nuer. Mr.
Machar, a British-educated former rebel with a Ph.D., was a senior member of
the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army, the military wing of the party Mr. Kiir
now leads, as it battled Sudan’s government in Khartoum. He split from the
movement in 1991 and formed his own group, which signed a peace agreement with
the Sudanese government in 1997.

During this period, Mr.
Machar’s group fought against the South Sudanese rebels. But he later defected
from Khartoum and rejoined the Southern rebel forces. When South Sudan seceded
in 2011, Mr. Machar was made vice president until Mr. Kiir fired him along with
the entire cabinet in July.

The United Nations said
that the upheaval in recent days had forced 20,000 people to seek refuge at its
compound in Juba, raising humanitarian concerns.

“There is no food, no
water, and medical services are limited,” said Mr. Biel, the rights activist.
“This is not a place to be.”

Diplomats have responded
with great concern. On Friday, the United Nations Security Council issued a
statement expressing “grave alarm and concern regarding the rapidly
deteriorating security and humanitarian crisis in South Sudan resulting from
the political dispute among the country’s political leaders, which threatens
serious implications for the long-term security and stability of South Sudan,
as well as for the neighboring countries and other peace and security
challenges in the region.”

There are fears that the
growing instability will have an impact on an already delicate economy. About
200 oil workers in Unity State to the north have sought refuge at a United
Nations base there, and the Chinese oil company operating there, CNPC, has
begun removing its workers.

A descent into civil war
in South Sudan would have serious local and regional consequences.

“In the coming days,
refugees are likely to reach Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia,” said Casie Copeland
of the International Crisis Group. “South Sudan has become a critical player in
the broader East African economy, with substantial regional and international
investment.”

Many groups have called
for greater international involvement. “The international community needs to
double down on diplomatic engagement to facilitate a political resolution to
the crisis,” said Akshaya Kumar, Sudan and South Sudan policy analyst at the
Enough Project.

But at the United
Nations compound in Juba, Mr. Biel remained skeptical about a quick resolution.
“If I was at home, I would not be alive,” he said. “The whole nation is now
suffering.”