Australian Financial Review chief political correspondent

Campbell Newman ... an early poll would be an inconvenience. Photo: Glenn Hunt

Ask the Queensland Premier, Campbell Newman, whether he would like another election any time soon and the answer would have to be ''no''.

Newman swept to power in a record landslide in March and, with three-year terms in Queensland, does not need to go to the polls until March 2015.

Early in his first term, he has implemented unpopular measures such as harsh job cuts and is setting about reshaping Queensland as he sees fit.

Such is the size of his majority, Newman would not lose if he had to call an early election. Far from it. He'll win the next election in 2015 as well.

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But an early poll would be an inconvenience and almost certainly Newman's Liberal National Party would lose some seats.

If the federal Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, wins the next election, as he remains favourite to do so, his majority would be nothing like that handed to Newman. All the more reason why Abbott would not want to rush back to polls before he had to.

But he has already promised to do so, should the Senate refuse to repeal the carbon price.

Starting at a community forum in Brisbane in July last year, Abbott has, on multiple occasions, promised a double dissolution election.

''There are provisions for dealing with a deadlock and we won't shy away from those provisions,'' he told the community forum.

A year later, he said, when asked about a double dissolution: ''Absolutely. Everything that we humanly can, we will do.''

In March this year, Abbott told Sky News: ''If an incoming Coalition government can't get its carbon tax repeal legislation through the Senate, well, we will not hesitate to go to a double dissolution.''

At the time of those statements, the Coalition was monstering Labor in the polls. Abbott was confident he would never have to carry out the threat in the event Labor and the Greens kept control of the Senate after the election.

He drew on the Coalition's eagerness to disown WorkChoices after the Howard government lost power in 2007. After the election, the Coalition opposition stood aside meekly and allowed the Rudd government to abolish the policy. Abbott believes Labor would do the same regarding the carbon price, saying repeatedly it would be inconceivable for the party ''to commit suicide twice'' over the policy.

It would be foolish to assume the carbon tax has lost all political potency. Abbott does not mention it day in and day out for no reason. His internal polling and anecdotal reports from backbenchers show it still resonates in certain electorates, both as a cost of living issue and one concerning the trustworthiness of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.

Equally, however, its potency is not what it was before July 1. The government believes Australian politics has moved into the ''post-carbon phase'', many of Abbott's claims about what the carbon price would do are, says the Minister for Climate Change, Greg Combet, ''complete bullshit'' and the public polls show the proportion of voters who feel they would be worse off under the tax has fallen. Significantly, the polls show Labor back within striking distance of the Coalition.

Abbott has declared the next election a referendum on the carbon tax and will keep banging the drum for another year, until the election is held.

But can he keep banging it afterwards, should he win, with the aim of dragging people back to the polls within 18 months?

It is likely business will be used to the tax and prepared for the carbon price to drop in 2015 when it is linked to the European price. Voters will also be sick of hearing about it. Pricing carbon may even be back in vogue.

Until hurricane Sandy ravaged the US east coast a week before last week's US election, climate change barely rated a mention in the campaign.

But, in his victory speech, the President, Barack Obama, said: ''We want our children to live in an America that isn't burdened by debt, that isn't weakened by inequality, that isn't threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet.''

A former Democrat adviser now living and working in Canberra said Obama, like other second-term presidents, is now free from having to run for re-election and will seek to leave a legacy. This could include reigniting the push to put a price on carbon. More so as it would raise huge amounts of revenue and could be sold as a deficit-reducing measure.

A double-dissolution would be the last thing on Abbott's mind at the moment. His challenge remains to win the next general election and he is taking nothing for granted.

But if he won, Labor, should it retain the whip hand in the Senate, could do worse than to pause and take stock before throwing its policy principle to the wolves. Forcing a newly-elected government to hold another election holds little risk for an opposition.

121 comments

It is widely believed that had Kevin Rudd sought a double dissolution election when the ETS was recurrently rejected, he would have won comfortably. People crave polititians of principle who act consistently with their convictions - if the electorate is broadly sympathetic to those convictions.

The ALP would indeed be unwise to abandon the Carbon Price in Opposition.

Commenter

Ross

Location

MALLABULA

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 8:54AM

The only reason Gillard and Labor brought in the carbon tax was to gain the support of the Greens so they could get back into power, it had absolutely nothing to do with their convictions or principal. They would turn on a pin if it meant garnering public support again, don't kid yourself.

Commenter

Eileen

Location

NSW

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 9:24AM

I totally agree with you Ross,

Do you think that Abbott would really go to a DD on Carbon Pricing?? when it is an issue that did not reach any "dizzy heights" or create an amageddon of apocalyptic proportions as was promised by the Opposition Leader.

Commenter

Buffalo Bill

Location

Sydneys Northshore

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 9:27AM

Eileen - unfortunately you are partly correct for Gillard scuppered any attempt by Rudd to call a DD election - except in her famous promise not to introduced a carbon tax, Julia Gillard said that she was utterly determined to put a price on carbon.

Buffalo Bill, I don't think Tony Abbott would call a DD over the Carbon Tax. It is such a minor issue, most people see the need to do something about emissions, it seems to be working at minimal cost, and Abbott is likely to have a razor thin margin if he manages to escape a hung Parliament.

Commenter

Ross

Location

MALLABULA

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 10:04AM

What you are neglecting is the fact that Abbott has to actually win the next election and personally I doubt that he will. Look at what has happened - people are seeing him as being quite vacant offering nothing that will advance the future of Australia and thankfully for "can-cut" Newman we have had a taste of what Abbott would do in govt and through his stated determination to slash $70 billion from the economy, which undoubtedly will lead to recession (look at the UK for this model and Qld as well for last week's unemployment figures).

As well look at the money that is now being spent on sustainable energy - stated (in the SMH about two weeks ago) to be $18.5 billion since the inception of the carbon price. This will only increase and create more and more jobs. If you look at the move around the world for more carbon pricing (there are may examples of this, California and many other US states, South Korea, Chinese provinces, UK, Europe etc) and sustainability and a reduction in carbon emissions in some cases reductions of 80% by 2050. Where will this leave coal? Despite billions being spent on CCS over the last 30 years or so there is no solution and this is a holy grail - but looks unlikely before other energy sources come into play.

Abbott's "direct action" will equally be rejected because of the waste of money - $1300 per year per tax payer and in reality will achieve nothing.

Commenter

n720ute

Location

North Coast NSW

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 10:50AM

@ Ross - Agree 100%.Rudd really wimped it, and from what we've been told in the press at Gillard's insistence.If he had stared her and the opposition (after Turnbull was rolled that is) he would still be there.He was the master of his own demise, and this was just one of the factors

Commenter

wennicks

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 10:52AM

Ross, she had no intention of bringing in a carbon tax because she knew the public were starting to realise it would hit their hip pockets, if it weren't for her alliance with the Greens she would have let it dither and wilt to nothing, she knew the major world powers were doing nothing and it would put our businesses at a disadvantage but she chose power over the effect it would have on those businesses and unless you are in business you have no idea.

Commenter

Eileen

Location

NSW

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 10:59AM

Another hung Parliament Ross? hmm thats a distinct possilbilty wonder if the electorate will / would tolerate it again??, a new paradigm in the political landscape?

How ironic for Abbott ! wonder if he would sell his you know what to be in that position again having to negotiate etc?? Whilst the ALP are not perfect I would prefer to see them govern in their own right

Commenter

Buffalo Bill

Location

Sydneys Northshore

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 11:11AM

So we are all in agreement that Tony Abbott will win the next election and Ross you are saying with a thin majority. Carbon tax effect to this nation is on going. Investments are now being withdrawn left right and centre costing Australia $35billion. Let us not kid ourselves that the carbon tax impose is not just on electricity but the most important thing of being competitive in the world market. Carbon tax does not prevent or rescue us from global warming. It is a cost that will go up as years go. Europe has already given us the erratic experience and yet we still go like juvenile delinquents into the abyss. This coming election will be a referendum of the carbon tax and so if Labor wants to continue to be delinquents then the DD is the best way to completely take Labor and the Greens out of the equation.

Commenter

Lita

Date and time

November 12, 2012, 11:21AM

@Eileen: that's not quite true. Gillard said before the election that she would put a price on carbon, but only after the next election. She was however forced into action earlier by the Greens and the Independents, but it is certainly not true to say that she would never have done it otherwise.