8/9/17

One thing all Mets fans have come to know is that Las Vegas
numbers must be taken with a grain (or an entire silo) of salt. Very late to the same conclusion, the Mets
recently promoted Chris Flexen directly from AA to avoid the hitting happy PCL
altogether, and although the results have not been good in his first two
starts, I applaud the change in thinking. (His third start was better than he showed given his manager's characteristic early hook, but he did get the W).

The flip side, of course, is the hitting prowess shown in
AAA only rarely translates to the major league level. For example, in 2016 Gavin Cecchini hit .325
over the course of nearly 500 ABs in Vegas, so you’d think he would be ripe for
the majors. Now the Mets were already
crowded with Neil Walker, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, T.J. Rivera and Wilmer
Flores all ahead of him on the middle infield pecking order, so it was
incumbent upon Cecchini to do even better this year to force himself into the
conversation. Unfortunately upon
shifting to 2B his hitting went south and although he’s slowly come back a
little, he’s still at just .261 with even less power.

He’s far from the only hitter to have shown well in Vegas
and then gone backwards either at the major league or AAA level in subsequent
play. Matt Reynolds hit .333 in Las
Vegas over 300 ABs, had a few cups of coffee with the Mets where he hit just
.217 overall, reverted to the .260s in AAA before rebounding lately for a .330
mark in Las Vegas. He’s probably a
better hitter than he’s shown with the Mets but likely nowhere near the .330
range he’s twice shown in the minors.

Andrew Brown, Eric Campbell and others were examples of
players who could hit with aplomb in Las Vegas but couldn’t translate it to the
majors. It’s these types of experiences
that have the Mets wondering whether or not Amed Rosario and Dom Smith are for
real or merely a product of their environment?

The player most intriguing in this regard is Kevin
Plawecki. He has had some extended
trials in the majors due to Travis d’Arnaud’s many stints on the DL. He’s frankly not done very well. Over the course of 389 major league ABs he
has hit just .206 with 4 HRs and 36 RBIs.
Most alarmingly, for a guy without much power, he’s struck out 97 times.

To be fair, however, Plawecki during the 2015 season was
suffering from regular dizzy spells due to a sinus problem that required
off-season surgery to correct. He
described it as almost feeling drunk without having had anything to drink. Granted, the Mets organization was not very
deep in catchers, but you’d think someone on the staff would have noticed.

In 2016 you’d think with the issue corrected he’d have been
ready to tear the cover off the ball as he’d done as a career .296 hitter in
the minors. He began to show immediate
improvement and in just 200 ABs in 2016 in Las Vegas he hit 8 HRs, drove in 40
and was batting .300. At the major
league level, however, he was under the Mendoza line.

Fast forward to 2017 and Plawecki is on fire in Las
Vegas. He’s hitting .329/8/39 in 239
ABs. More importantly, he’s only struck
out 32 times. For most Mets fans (and
probably Mets management) Plawecki is a lost cause, but the ever-frugal
organization might want to bring him up and see if he would be a worthy backup
to Travis d’Arnaud because Rene Rivera is being paid $1.75 million and set to
hit free agency. Plawecki comes at major
league minimum. Granted, he’s not the
backstop that Rivera is, but Rivera is a career .217 hitter over nearly 1400
ABs. He’s not exactly Johnny Bench on
either side of the game.

Obviously Travis d’Arnaud has been a disappointment, but
while they await Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika, they may opt for one more year
of d’Arnaud to show whether or not he can put it altogether. Many feel he’s underperforming, but it’s
really his batting average that is a concern.
From a run production point of view he’s hit 10 HRs and driven in 36 in
just 227 ABs. If he produced 20/72 over
the course of a full season I don’t think anyone would reject that. He’s earning $1.875 million this year and is
arbitration eligible. Given that he will
likely get a pretty big bump to $3 million or more, I can’t see the Mets paying
nearly as much for a backup.

Many are clamoring for Jonathon Lucroy to be signed as a
FA. He’s having a down year by his
standards – just .245/4/28 in 290 ABs –
worse than d’Arnaud. What Lucroy does
have going for him is greater overall health and a yearly average of .280/16/77. He’s currently earning $5.25 million and
available to the highest bidder (assuming Colorado doesn’t seek to use its
exclusive negotiating position to retain him – something the Mets should be
exploring with Jay Bruce).

So the question becomes whether the uptick in batting
average Lucroy would provide is worth double what d’Arnaud would provide,
taking into account that Lucroy will start the season at age 32 and d’Arnaud at
29. Three years in catcher-time is
almost like counting dog years.

Personally, I think that d’Arnaud deserves one more year and
Plawecki deserves a shot as the major league backup. Granted, neither are terrific defenders, but
then that’s true of Lucroy as well.
Unless the Mets can wrangle a top catching prospect from another club in
trade, those appear to be the options – Lucroy, d’Arnaud, Rivera and
Plawecki. The only hope is that the
Marlins go full fire-sale mode and will consider moving J.T. Realmuto before he
becomes expensive. Unfortunately, that’s
a mere pipe dream, just like the one I have regularly about a new management
team.

11
comments:

The Mets have 50 or so games to figure out who their catching tandem in 2018 will be. I favor d'Arnaud and Plawecki, as Rivera is a light hitting, aging (just turned 34) catcher. Who has hit 11 for 70 since June started, reminiscent of Anthony Recker. His 51 Ks to 9 walks this year is also not endearing to me, even if he is the best of the 3 defensively.

They should get a really good look at Plawecki over the last 50 games, just like they are doing already out of necessity with the oft-recalled Rafael Montero, to see what K Plaw can really do in 2018 in beyond.

Reese, your spot on ... biggest problem is that the whole sport has catching issues... so there is absolutely no reason to a lot any significant funds for marginal (if that improvements) stay in house... and hope Nido or Mazeika comes fast...

If Bruce takes the qualifying Offer then great we can have him back for 2018 and a OF of (cespedes, conforto and Bruce) for 1 year but no way to sign him for multiple years... (he had a big year on a walk year... sounds familiar)

I wouldn't mind another offensive year like this year (meaning a bunch of 1 year contracts ) until the end of the 2018 season when that free agent class comes to be... if you want to spend thats the class to do so...a 27 year old harper or machado would be trans-formative around a Conforto, rosario and either a smith or alonzo...

We fans always hope. We hoped Amed would be a ball on fire when he came up – so far, he is not. We hope Smith will be a star when called up – he might not be for a while. We don’t perhaps remember that when Wilmer was in the PCL, at the same age as Smith, he hit better than Smith (more RBIs, more power). And it has been a struggle for Flores at times, but now he is past struggling, hitting .300 in 223 at bats with 11 homers since April. Why not put an already-broken-in Wilmer at first, where he might hit .300 with 30 homers over a full season, rather than perhaps deal with 1 or 2 years of a struggling Smith. We want to win it all in 2018, right? Why not trade a few number one draft pitchers (Dunn, Kay) with Smith to a team that has an elite, cost controlled starter or bullpen ace? And put Wilmer at first.

Seriously, I think Smith will be the kind of contact hitter this club needs. That being said, there's room for Wilmer Flores in 2018 at 2B or 3B. Flores' 2B fielding numbers are actually better than some Irishman in DC.