Blog | Coalition wins as Labor stems losses

Kevin Rudd has announced he will not recontest the Labor leadership as he conceded the election had been lost, and Tony Abbott has promised to end the carbon tax, stop the boats, get the budget on track for a “believable surplus” and begin building roads “for the twenty-first century” within three years. Here’s a rundown of how the night unfolded.

11.30pm: That’s a wrap on our election night blog.

Thanks for joining us.

11.24pm: We have another picture of the protester who disrupted Abbott's victory speech. He even got in a handshake with the new PM before he was dragged off stage.

Phorto: Reuters

11.18pm: Rupert Murdoch has been quick to issue his latest strongly worded assessment of Australian politics:

Aust election public sick of public sector workers and phony welfare scroungers sucking life out of economy.Others nations to follow in time

11.10pm: A quick update on two of the more controversial members of the most recent parliament, who both sought re-election today.

In the NSW Central Coast seat of Dobell, Labor turned independent Craig Thomson is on around 4 per cent of the vote. The new member is Liberal Karen McNamara.

In the Queensland seat of Fisher, former speaker Peter Slipper has scored just 1.4 per cent of votes counted so far, with former Howard government minister Mal Brough returning to parliament as the seat’s representative.

He’s a 25 year old who calls himself “Twiggy Palmcock”, and he walked onto the stage to protest against the mining industry.

The man, who refused to give his real name, was pulled off the stage and knocked over a flag by security staff at the Four Seasons Hotel in Sydney

“I wanted to thank Tony for all he is doing for mining. I basically feel like a member of the family,” he said out on the footpath.

Pedestrians abused the man as they walked past.

“In any other country you would have been shot,” one person said. “You are an absolute parasite.”

The man, along with two friends, snuck in using a lolly wrapper taped up to look like a yellow wristband given to journalists.

Here’s ‘Twiggy’ being taken away after his intervention - with Tony Abbott’s daughters clearly unsettled by the experience:

Photo: Nick Moir

10.46pm: The Financial Review’s political editor, Laura Tingle, says Tony Abbott has won a decisive victory but the utter thumping that Labor deserved, after three years of melodrama and chaos, was ameliorated by voters opting to spray their votes over minor parties rather than simply being prepared to switch to the Coalition.

Labor’s primary vote slumped to just 34 per cent – its lowest in a century. It has, unusually, lost office after just two terms.

But the swing to the Coalition was much less dramatic. The Liberal primary vote rose just 1.5 per cent to 30 per cent. The LNP vote in Queensland actually fell slightly. The Nationals vote rose only slightly.

For those who were wondering, Rudd’s longish speech ran for just short of 22 minutes – much longer than Tony Abbott’s.

The Rudd party emptied out pretty quickly after Rudd left - few people hung about to hear the Abbott victory speech.

Photo: James Massola

10.22pm: Here’s the latest look at where the parties stand:

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10.18pm:

It’s time to say thank you.

Campaign staff, candidates - successful and unsuccessful - his family, the people of Warringah all get thanks.

“I am proud and humble as I shoulder the duty of government.”

Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

10.15pm: Abbott continues...

“In three years’ time the carbon tax will be gone, the boats will be stopped, the budget will be on track for a believable surplus and the roads of the 21st century will be under way.”

He promises those who have voted for the Coalition for the first time today will not be let down.

“We will not leave anyone beyond.”

10.13pm: Tony Abbott is on stage.

“I can inform you that the government of Australia has changed...” he says before being drowned out by the crowd.

“... for just the seventh time in 60 years”, he concludes.

There us smattered clapping as Abbott pays tribute to Rudd for his time as Prime Minister, it’s definitely not enthusiastic

Australia is “once more open for business”, Abbott declares.

10.12pm: Financial Review commentator Geoff Kitney says Abbott has won one of the sweetest victories of all for the Liberal Party, but that now he must set aside the anger that brought him victory – you can read his article here.

10.11pm: A light aside while we wait for Abbott.

In homage to a particularly vocal Kevin Rudd supporter during his farewell speech, a Twitter account called @RuddScreamer has already appeared:

9.36pm: Kevin Rudd arrives to applause at the Labor function at the Gabba.

A cheer also goes up in Liberal HQ as Rudd prepares to make his concession speech

9.35pm: Rudd supporters are playing up for the cameras as the soon to be former PM’s arrival gets close.

They are chanting his name and cheering wildly - it’s almost as if they are suspending disbelief that he has lost.

Photo: James Massola

9.34pm: The three incumbent independents/minor party members – Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and Adam Bandt – have all retained their seats.

The interesting development, National Affairs editor Greg Earl points out, is that with strong numbers for Clive Palmer in his Queensland seat of Fairfax and a rural independent, Cathy McGowan in the Victorian seat of Indi, there could be five independents in the new parliament – the same number as in the outgoing parliament.

9.33pm: Former treasurer Wayne Swan says the national message on health, education and the NBN has helped Labor stem its losses, particularly in Queensland. But he says that the Labor party needs stop being riven with internal divisions.

“I think we can rebuild and be a fighting force in three years time,’ he predicted.

Mr Swan, who has held his seat of Lilley, says he will remain on the backbench but will have a role in promoting discussion of important national issues.

9.30pm: We hear Rudd is due to appear at the Labor function shortly.

Financial Review political correspondent James Massola reports that as the results come in, the Rudd supporters cheer time again and again.

News that Tanya Plibersek, Graham Perrett and Wayne Swan appear to be safe is welcomed, there is a huge roar for Rudd – and amusingly, one of the biggest cheers goes up when word comes through that Michelle Rowland will likely beat Jaymes Diaz.

Perhaps its just the beer talking, but Rudd volunteers seem to be born optimists.

Talk is turning to how the result will keep them in striking distance of the Coalition and jam things up in the Senate for Abbott.

Meanwhile, a senior Labor strategist - who has definitely NOT had a beer yet - says Labor’s internal polling had been tracking up in the fourth week until the costings debacle.

The strategist concedes the slap down of Labor claims of a $10 billion costings hole in Coalition policies from Treasury, Finance and the PBO cost the party badly.

Rudd got bounces in the party’s internal polling from the campaign launch - where he was widely judged to have done a good job - and his appearance on Q&A the following night but the damage had been done.

These results suggest the switch back to Rudd from Gillard has proved to be worth it for the ALP, he concludes.

9.27pm: A learned tweet from journalist Julia Baird:

An election is a moral horror, as bad as a battle except for the blood; a mud bath for every soul concerned in it. George Bernard Shaw

9.24pm: Joe Hockey has arrived at the Liberal Party function - he goes upstairs to join his senior colleagues rather than address the media.

9.22pm: Kate Ellis has retained the seat of Adelaide for Labor, the ABC is reporting. There’s been a 4.9 per cent swing to the Liberals though, with 65.5 per cent of the vote counted.

She tells the ABC there will be some lessons for the Labor party out of the election and it’s important to start rebuilding right now.

She brushes aside a question about whether Kevin Rudd should leave parliament.

9.19pm: Joanna Heath reports:

Tanya Plibersek, who is mooted as a potential Labor leader after tonight’s election, has just made a speech at her after-party.

She’s held her seat of Sydney with an increased margin on 2010.

Reportedly Plibersek apologised to her branch members who had been let down by Labor Party infighting.

9.17pm: Senior Labor MP Tony Burke has ruled out standing for the Labor leadership saying it’s not the right time for him, but Chris Bowen, former treasurer, who has held his seat of McMahon, wouldn’t comment.

9.15pm: The AFR’s Michaela Whitbourn reports:

Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury concedes defeat flanked by his wife and four children.

“I’m Labor to the bootstraps,” Bradbury says. “I know it’s not a fashionable thing to say.”

He says Lindsay is a difficult seat to win but it’s one a party needs to win to form government.

The swing against him is “around 3 per cent”, he says.

“People were talking about 10 per cent swings,” he says. “I’ve always fought to the death. Today that just wasn’t enough.

“I can go to sleep tonight in the knowledge there is nothing more we could have done. We will keep fighting.”

Bradbury says he respects the democratic process.

“The Australian people have pulled out their scorecard today,” he says.

He adds “every stupid statement” PM-in-waiting Tony Abbott made about the economy “needs to come back and haunt him”.

He will watch with interest if Abbott’s party room will allow him to implement his generous paid parental leave scheme.

Bradbury says he couldn’t locate Liberal candidate Fiona “sex appeal” Scott’s phone number to congratulate her on her victory, but he says no doubt he will try again.

9.13pm: Some more from Joanna Heath at the Abbott function:

A cheer goes up at Liberal HQ as David Bradbury concedes in Lindsay - it’s the first cheer of the night.

The room just got a bit more exuberant, with two female supporters jumping onto the stage with a banner that read “it’s Tony time!” to cheers from the crowd.

Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

A supporter in the crowd, named Angelo, says he never thought tonight’s victory would be the “whitewash” some were expecting.

“I thought Swan would keep his seat because he’s had the last month and a half to campaign in his own seat rather than for the Labor Party. I think it’s on track with what everyone thought.”

9.12pm: The AFR’s James Massola in Brisbane says: It’s worth noting there seem to be no Labor MPs or senators here at the Rudd function.

The Rudd event really is one for the true believers.

Perhaps it’s because people expected a worse result then has so far eventuated, but the room is populated by Rudd staffers, volunteers and fans - that’s it.

Of course MPs are always in their own seats to celebrate a victory or mark a defeat, but the absence of senators, some of who are not up for re-election, is noticeable. It’s also a reminder that Rudd has always been something of an outsider in the ALP, even as he led it.

Swan was mobbed by about 50 volunteers chanting “Swanny” at the Banyo Leagues Club when he arrived just before 8.30pm.

He told them Labor needed to learn the lessons from the election defeat and come back stronger like former leader Kim Beazley did at the 1998 election, just two years after the Howard government took office in 1996: “These results come from time to time and they test us.”

“The Labor party should take its time and analyse what’s occurred and to chart a course forward and in three years time take it up to the Liberals.

“I think it’s time for calm, rational analysis rather than a whole lot of finger pointing.”

“Everyone in the Labor party, everyone in government owns this result. We shouldn’t be saying one individual, whether it’s the Prime Minister or myself is responsible for this result. Yes, people did make mistakes and yes there are problems but let’s try and be mature about this.”

Wayne Swan arrives at Nudgee Rugby League Club to celebrate with family and friends his win in the 2013 federal election.

9.05pm: Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop and foreign minister in the new Abbott government, speaking from her seat in Perth says there are no easy solutions for Syria.

“The introduction of chemical weapons has made it all the more complex,” said the person now likely to craft Australia’s position on whether there ought to be a strike against the Assad regime.

Ms Bishop said she would await briefings before announcing a position.

9.00pm: The two-party preferred count is running slightly better for Labor at this point than the opinion polls would have suggested – according to the Australian Electoral Commission, the numbers currently stand at 47.2 to 52.8, while the poll of polls average was 46.5 to 53.5.

However, this might change when the Western Australian numbers start coming in.

8.58pm: We don’t have an official result yet but that hasn’t stopped the Australian Mines and Metals Association from firing off a press release of congratulations to Tony Abbott and the Coalition. Says AMMA boss Steve Knott:

“AMMA has enjoyed a long and constructive working relationship with our incoming 28th Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott since he was first elected to parliament in 1994 ... The Abbott Government has a clear mandate to restore confidence back into Australia’s resource industry and back into our country generally as a globally competitive and productive place to do business.

8.56pm: More from Joanna Heath:

The mood in Liberal HQ is still, surprisingly, quite subdued. The failure to take down key Labor figures so far, like Chris Bowen in McMahon and Wayne Swan in Lilley, might have taken the wind out of the celebrations a little.

Key party figures including Tony Abbott who are currently holed up upstairs are apparently waiting for results from Queensland to come through - there are no thumping victories there just yet.

There’s a strange aura, as it becomes more and more clear this may not be the landslide victory some were hoping for.

8.55pm: Christine Forster tells Sky Nws brother Tony Abbott will be “a cracking Prime Minister.” Ms Forster was handing out how to vote cards in the seat of Sydney from 6am this morning for losing Liberal candidate

8.54pm: Says the AFR’s James Massola at Rudd HQ in Brisbane: We’re in holding pattern here at the Rudd function at Brisbane’s Gabba ground.

The room has filled up, Rudd is in the building, but with polling in WA having closed less than an hour ago we aren’t expecting the soon-to-be-former PM just yet.

Rudd is bunkered down in a room at the cricket ground watching the results come in with some of his closest advisers. It’s clear he has lost, of course, but the results are better than expected and it’s likely we’ll have to wait for Kevin just a little longer, one last time.

Before Rudd takes the stage to concede he’s expected to call Abbott to concede and congratulate the prime minister elect. Then, and only then, should we expect Rudd to address his supporters - and the nation.

8.50pm: Our reporter Joanna Heath says former PM John Howard has arrived at the Liberal Party function and has been speaking about Abbott, who has also arrived, but not yet made an appearance.

“He’ll do a fantastic job, he will look after the security of this country. He will be careful with public money, and he will lead a united government. That’s what people want of a government, we need a return to normal government where governments govern in the interests of everybody. They are careful with the public’s money and they worry about our borders.

“I can’t speak too highly of what a wonderful job Tony Abbott has done. He’s been a splendid leader of my party, and all those ridiculous people who said he was unelectable should understand how foolish they were to underestimate him.

“It looks to me as though it’s been a successful campaign.

“I always think Liberal governments do a better job than Labor governments. This has been a very unstable, incompetent government and it’s wasted our money. It deserved to be thrown out of office.

“It looks pretty obvious to me that the Australian people have delivered a resounding verdict. You can trust Tony Abbott, he will listen to you, he’ll look after your interests.”

Photo: Janie Barrett

8.49pm: Here’s the latest look at where the parties stand:

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8.46pm: Let’s take a look at some more key seats across the country.

Bob Katter has retained his seat of Kennedy in Queensland, the ABC is reporting, despite a 15.5 per cent swing to the Liberals. 40.1 per cent of the vote has been counted.

Meanwhile in the western Sydney seat of Greenway, they’re calling a 3.1 per cent swing to Labor, meaning Michelle Rowland retains her seat, and Jaymes Diaz, who failed to name the Coalition's six-point plan to “stop the boats”, has filed to enter parliament.

Interesting things are afoot in the Northern Territory: the seat of Solomon, which includes Darwin, may be the only one that Labor wins in this election. It’s not certain yet – with 51.9 per cent counted, votes are almost perfectly split between Labor’s Luke Gosling and the Country Liberals’ Natasha Griggs.

He’s done the rounds of the TVs after a resounding win in the seat of NSW seat of New England previously held by Independent MP Tony Windsor.

Joyce’s win is a homecoming for the boy who grew up in the area and the Nationals who have always regarded this seat as one of their own.

Barnaby says he won with the help of the “killer canaries”: his supporters who wore yellow t-shirts.

So Barnaby enters the House of Reps ... watch your back Warren Truss.

8.38pm: Labor frontbencher Jason Clare says it’s time for Kevin Rudd to go as Labor leader and that the Rudd-Gillard era needs to come to an end. “My view is it’s time for generational change,” Clare tells the Ten Network.

“We need to put the Rudd and the Gillard era behind us.”

8.36pm: Bob Carr acknowledges his time as Foreign Minister is coming to an end, saying he's honoured his last official duty was to pay tribute to Russian lives lost during the World War II siege of Leningrad.

Carr on Saturday visited the Piskariovksoye memorial cemetery in St Petersburg where almost 500,000 people who died during the siege are buried in mass graves.

“I’m deeply honoured that my last official duty as foreign minister has been to come to this site and pay an official and deeply-meant Australian tribute to the war dead of Russia,” he said. “I couldn’t think of a sweeter, sadder task to be engaged in.”

8.32pm: Here’s Monash University’s Nick Economou with a couple of quick comments on the Palmer United Party’s efforts:

8.29pm: Former prime minister Julia Gillard has just posted her first tweet since July 11, to congratulate Joanna Ryan on retaining Lalor, where she previously served, for Labor.

Congrats to Joanne Ryan on her election as Member for Lalor. She’ll be a strong and articulate voice for a proud community we both love. JG

Another Rudd supporter, Quincy Timberlake, says he was a big supporter of Julia Gillard because of her implementation of the Gonski schemeand “as Australia’s first female prime minister, she withstood a lot of pressure”

Timberlake is a Kevin Rudd fan because of his vision for Australia on the world stage.

“He got Australia into the UN Security Council, today Australia is the president of the security council because of him”.

“He is the white Obama.”

“I like Rudd for a lot of reasons - his personality and the person behind the personality. He is a fighter to the last.”

As the results come in the smiles on Labor faces are growing.

This doesn’t look like being the wipe out that had been on the cards.

Every time another positive result comes in, a big cheer rings around the room.

Labor has lost, but it will fight another day - at least if the mood at the Rudd party is any guide.

Photo: James Massola

And the AFR’s chief political correspondent Phil Coorey reports: A case of Moet was spotted heading upstairs to a VIP room at the Four Seasons in Sydney where Tony Abbott is stationed with senior Liberal Party figures.

8.13pm: Joanna Heath reports from the Abbott function:

The mood in the ballroom of the Four Seasons is confident, but unexpected tough fights in Victoria have dampened the ebullience a little. There have been no cheers go up, or tears for that matter, as results for each seat start to trickle in.

Senior Liberal Party members, including the cabinet, are upstairs in their own private party watching the proceedings, and will join the main party later.

Tony Abbott, who has spent the evening having dinner with his family, is understood not to have arrived just yet.

8.12pm: Some more seat updates:

Treasurer Chris Bowen has retained the NSW seat of McMahon for Labor, but with a 2.7 per cent swing to the Liberals, the ABC says.

There’s a big swing against Bob Katter in the seat of QLD Kennedy with a 17 per cent swing to LNP candidate Noeline Ikin. The seat is in doubt.

Meanwhile, with counting just starting in Western Australia, the Coalition has retained every one of its seats across the rest of the country.

8.11pm: According to the ABC, the primary vote is playing out as follows: 45.1 per cent for the Coalition, 33.5 per cent for Labor, 8.9 per cent for the Greens and 12.4 per cent for other parties.

8.08pm: The Liberals are ahead in Lindsay, the western Sydney seat currently held by Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury, although the ABC is yet to call the seat for Fiona “sex appeal” Scott.

With 36.5 per cent of the vote counted, the swing in her favour is 2.8 per cent.

David Bradbury with his wife Kylie and children at Claremont Meadow Public School, arriving to vote on election day.

Photo: Dallas Kilponen

8.06pm: The AFR’s Brisbane bureau chief Mark Ludlow files from Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley: The mood is up-beat at Wayne Swan’s election night gathering at Banyo Rugby League Club in northern Brisbane.

About 50 people dressed in red and white Wayne Swan – local experience, your national voice t-shirts remain upbeat despite early counting showing there’s been about a 2 per cent swing against the former Treasurer.

Swan hasn’t arrived yet, as counting shows it will be a close result in his seat of Lilley, which he’s held since 1998. The thin margin of 3.2 per cent certainly hasn’t helped his cause.

Former Treasurer Wayne Swan with his family on Saturday morning.

Photo: Graham Cairns

Swan volunteer Peggy Lo said she hopes there’s enough support to get the former deputy PM across the line.

“I’m fairly confident he will win – the mood was very positive at the polling booths today,” Ms Lo said.

Loud cheers erupted just before 8pm when television reports showed Swan was ahead 53 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Swan has hit the grass roots campaigning hard in the past few months since he resigned from the ministry following the return of Kevin Rudd to party leader. His LNP opponent Rod McGarvie is having a second tilt at the seat after losing the 2010 election.

The irony is Swan, who is seen by many as a loyal Labor man, could be one of the few Labor MPs left standing in Queensland after Saturday night’s counting. So could Rudd if he sees off a strong challenge from the LNP’s Bill Glasson in his southern Brisbane seat of Griffith.

8.05pm: Anthony Albanese is among the few Labor MPs who’s seeing a swing towards him.

Primary vote swings to ALP in most booths in Grayndler - scrutineers report ahead of the Greens Party candidate in every single booth

Meanwhile, in Queensland, the ABC is calling Fairfax, Queensland for Palmer United Party – a 9.4 per cent swing from the LNP, with 49.3 per cent of the vote counted.

7.48pm: Some more updates from other seats.

The ABC has called the Queensland seat of Fisher for Liberal Mal Brough, but he’s not claiming victory just yet.

He he is “not counting any chickens before they hatch”.

Brough says there was a really good mood on the booths but Clive Palmer’s party ran hard in this electorate. Slipper, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is running as an independent, is not polling well.

In Fairfax, also in Queensland, we’re unlikely to know final result tonight and whether big Clive Palmer will be packing his bags to take his private plane to Canberra, according to Sky, because of the high number of pre-poll votes.

Early results for Melbourne are showing a 7.7 per cent swing to Adam Bandt, Sky News is reporting, although it’s too early to call the seat.

With 46.5 per cent of the vote counted in Eden-Monaro, the ABC says Labor’s Mike Kelly will retain the seat, but with a 3.1 per cent swing to the Liberals. Bellwether no longer, perhaps?

Mike Kelly at Queanbeyan Leagues Club

Photo: Katherine Griffiths

7.46pm: Some more from James Massola at the Rudd function:

The mood at the Rudd event has, if anything, improved in the last hour.

Labor is performing a little better than had been expected at this stage and while the true believers seem to have accepted the inevitable defeat, they’re now taking solace in the small victories that are coming in in individual seats.

7.44pm: Rebecca Huntley is an Ipsos Mackay director of research and a BRW columnist.

Craig Thompson cites conspiracy with the vote count. Determined not to concede defeat tonight or any night. #ausvotes#auspol

A huge cheer has just gone up at the Rudd party after the ABC projected a win for the PM in his seat of Griffith.

Rudd is reportedly in the building but he has not been sighted yet.

Soon afterwards, the ABC projected wins for Wayne Swan in Lilley and Yvette D’Ath in Petrie.

Both projections get a big cheer too from the crowd.

7.42pm: Another update from our reporter Joanna Heath:

To the other end of the age spectrum at Liberal HQ, we talk to Trent, a member of the Young Liberal movement who has been working for Parramatta candidate Martin Zaiter for the last few months.

When did you feel confident of victory at a federal level?

Two weeks ago, the momentum has really started to pick up. Labor’s gone. People are sick of Labor, they want change, they want to grow the economy, they want to get the country back to how it should be.

What kind of Prime Minister will Tony Abbott be?

I think he’s going to be a very cautious Prime Minister. Good for the country, absolutely.

People are going to see the other side of Tony Abbott that a lot of people don’t know or can’t see. He’s going to be a fantastic Prime Minister.

After 2010, will this victory feel like sweet revenge?

I wouldn’t say sweet revenge as such, but I can just say it was a long time in the planning.

7.39pm: The Liberals’ Sarah Henderson takes Corangamite in Victoria, the ABC says. With 29.4 per cent of the vote counted, the swing in her favour in 4.8 per cent. Deakin in Victoria has also been taken by the Liberals.

The ABC has also called Griffith for Kevin Rudd, although we doubt Liberal Bill Glasson is giving up just yet.

Meanwhil,e they’re also saying that Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy in Queensland is showing a 16.7 per cent swing to the LNP – but they’re not calling it just yet.

7.38pm: Things are looking up, slightly, for Labor – the ABC is now predicting 59 seats for Labor, 89 for the Coalition.

7.36pm: Former NSW Labor state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite likely to succeed in his transition from the Senate to the lower house in the Sydney seat of Kingsford-Smith, according to Sky.

The seat was held by Peter Garrett, who quit after Kevin Rudd resumed the Labor leadership.

In Sydney, Tony Burke beats Ron Delezio in Watson and Ed Husic increases his margin in early counting in Chifley. Albo holds Grayndler.

7.33pm: Let’s get another update from Joanna Heath at the Liberal function in Sydney:

She’s had a chat with one of the party stalwarts here early to watch the election coverage.

James Jarvie says he has been a Liberal party member for 50 years, and has been president of the Earlwood and Bexley North branches of the party in Sydney’s south. He describes himself as “John Howard’s best friend”.

The Financial Review’s James Massola reports from the Labor function, where Auntie Margaret Lawton, who does the welcome to country for Rudd at events in his seat, is proud to declare “she has been a supporter ever since the apology”.

“He’s the only man I trust,’’ she declares. But has he got a chance?

“Anyone can win, I don’t look at the polls or the statistics, I look at the person themselves. He’s a wonderful human being and a great man,” Lawton declares.

“There has been a total barrage of media against Kevin, I would have just crumbled but he goes on and on and I think he’s a credit to our democratic nation,’’ Duncan says.

“The Labor party, the goal is to stand up for the people who can’t stand up for themselves.”

“I feel like this is the election that Gina Rinehart won, and Rupert Murdoch won.”

Here’s a pic of Rudd and his wife leaving home for the party.

Photo: Harrison Saragossi

7.16pm: The seat of Bass in Tasmania is a safe gain for the Liberals, says the ABC.

With 11.5 per cent of the vote counted, the swing to the Coalition is 15 per cent.

With 10 per cent of the vote counted in Corangamite in Victoria, Sarah Henderson is looking like she will defeat Darren Cheeseman. Victorian results are not good for Labor, says Sky. There’s a big swing against Jenny Macklin in Jagajaga.

7.15pm: The Nationals are set to win Lyne in NSW after independent Rob Oakeshott’s retirement, Sky reports.

7.14pm: Some party stalwarts have arrived at the Liberal function in Sydney.

Photo: Joanna Heath

7.09pm: Graham Richardson on Sky is calling Griffith for Kevin Rudd but Liberal George Brandis says it’s too early and Bill Glasson is still in with a chance.

7.08pm: From Joanna Heath at Liberal HQ:

The main party room is still dominated by journalists, with no politicians (bar Bill Heffernan) showing their faces just yet.

But the early Liberal staffers who are here are certainly look like they are enjoying themselves, and are glued to television screens as early results start to come through. None are giving away too much just yet, however.

Senator Bill Heffernan arrives at the Liberal Party function at the Four Seasons hotel in Sydney.

Photo: Janie Barrett

7.05pm: Here are some more predictions from the ABC:

Cunningham and Hunter in NSW both set to be retained by Labor

And is there a little ray of hope for Labor in Queensland? At this point, Leichhardt, currently held by the LNP, is showing a 4.7 per cent swing to Labor.

7.04pm: Both the ABC and Sky have called Brisbane for sitting Liberal MP Teresa Gambaro.

The ABC is predicting Paterson in NSW will be safely returned to the Liberals, with a 4.7 per cent swing in their favour. 11.9 per cent of the vote has been counted.

The Nationals will take Page NSW from Labor with an 8 per cent swing, the ABC is reporting. They’ll also retain Parkes NSW, the ABC predicts.

7.03pm: Sky says there’s a 6 per cent swing against David Bradbury in western Sydney seat of Lindsay in early counting - which is easily enough for him to lose to Liberal Fiona Scott.

7.01pm: As if we couldn’t see it coming, the ABC’s Anthony Green calls it for the Coalition.

7.00pm: Here's a pic from the AFR’s James Massola at Kevin Rudd’s function in Brisbane. The tally up on the big screen can’t be bringing them much to cheer about.

6.57pm: The ABC is calling 19 seats for the Coalition and six for Labor, with 1.4 per cent of the vote counted. Sky News is reporting a 30.3 per cent swing to Barnaby Joyce in New England with 3.5 per cent of the vote counted.

6.56pm: Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is telling a similar story to Beattie, saying Labor’s is suffering for its disunity.

“You do get marked down when there’s a perception or reality of disunity and no doubt that’s one of the issues that’s come through in terms of the election campaign itself,” he told the Seven network from his Sydney electorate,” he tells Seven News.

“I think Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have been good prime ministers ... All the polling indicated where we are at and we made that decision.”

He continues: “The Labor party did spend too much time talking ourselves down whether on behalf of Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard ... The electorate clearly has view that we need to be united. They want to vote for a united party.

“What is important is that if the result doesn’t go the way I would like tonight, we can’t walk away from our legacy.”

6.52pm: Peter Beattie tells the ABC that Labor’s leadership issues are the reason for the party’s problems tonight.

“That is the reason that the election is going the way it is,” he says.

6.51pm: It’s still early days, but the ABC is calling 16 seats for the Coalition and 4 for Labor, with 1.2 per cent of the vote counted.

The mood at Kevin Rudd’s election party is, to put it politely, low key. Some campaign staff are enjoying the first beer, looks of quiet relief on their faces as they commiserate and compare notes. It’s still early and the room is about half full with guests and journalists.

All the TV and radio networks are set up for live crosses as the early numbers come in. One staffer mentions they believe Rudd had had a strong Labor launch that, at the start of the week, could have helped the PM pull back some votes, but instead Labor’s fortunes fell away.

The chaotic scenes at the polling station capped off what have been a bad last few days for the PM. Another example of the Rudd campaign’s messy last few days is that the media room was not set up with a working television when the event opened at 5pm.

6.47pm: According to Sky News, with 1.4 per cent of the vote counted in Sophie Mirabella’s Victorian seat of Indi, there’s a 5.7 per cent swing against her. She holds the seat by a margin of 9 per cent.

6.44pm: Labor’s Tanya Plibersek, speaking on the ABC, has been very frank about Labor’s chances in NSW.

She says she is “very nervous” about at least 9 seats in NSW.

She is also asked about the aftermath of the election, and urges everyone to be civil:

“Any recrimination in public or private will only make things worse, we need to take responsibility as a team. Through good times and bad.”

Plibersek has been mooted as a potential leader or deputy leader after the election - you can read the AFR’s profile of her from a few weeks ago here.

6.39pm: We’re hearing the Palmer United Party, led by Clive Palmer, is scoring big numbers in early polling, especially in his home state of Queensland. Could be one of the major stories of the night.

6.32pm: The ABC’s election guru Antony Green is being cheeky as his night of nights gets under way.

“If I wanted to be daring I’d call the election now,” but says he should probably wait 10 minutes.

6.30pm: And polls have closed in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Our reporter Joanna Heath is at Liberal HQ, and she says maverick Liberal senator Bill Heffernan is the first senior Liberal politician to arrive.

They had a quick chat, and he is being unusually circumspect:

“Any political party, until the result is called, you are quite reserved with your judgement. So we’re reserved with our judgement.”

6.28pm: Voters at Bondi Beach were left in no doubt as to who their local Liberal candidate was.

Photo: Getty Images

While troubled Labor turned independent MP Craig Thomson was out and about seeking last-minute votes.

Photo: Getty Images

6.24pm: And early numbers are starting to come in, and it’s good news for Barnaby Joyce.

6.16pm: Stephen Smith, by his own verdict the soon-to-be-former Defence Minister on ABC TV says Labor is headed for defeat.

“This is a night where regrettably we will see the defeat of a Labor Government”.

6.14pm: While we wait for the first results to start rolling in, here are some pics from the campaign trail.

Senior Liberal Christopher Pyne speaks to volunteers in Adelaide:

Photo: Gety Images

Here’s independent Senator Nick Xenophon arriving to cast his vote, also in Adelaide:

Photo: Getty Images

Deputy Leader of the Opposition Julie Bishop laughs with West Australian Premier Colin Barnett after voting at the Cottesloe Civic Centre in Perth:

Photo: Getty Images

Former Queensland premier nd now Labor Federal Candidate for Forde Peter Beattie pose for a photo as he campaigns in Forde.

Photo: Harrison Saragossi

6.05pm: The East Coast polls have only just closed, but former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke is already laying into the performance of the ALP in recent years.

“They’ve chopped and changed leaders, and the public don’t react favourably,” he tells Sky News.

6.00pm: As counting gets under way, let’s take a look at the lay of the land.

The Financial Review’s Greg Earl and Les Hewitt have prepared this interactive showing which seats were held by which parties. Have a browse.

interactive

5.56pm: The Financial Review’s Canberra bureau chief Gemma Daley with some exit polling, conducted by Crosby Textor on behalf of the energy industry:

70 per cent of voters decided who they would vote for before the campaign begun, according to exit polling of 20 marginal seats provided by the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association.

There was also no opposition to coal seam gas in the result.

Policies were the main factor and even when prompted and despite a strong campaign against coal seam gas, no one rated gas as an issue.

“For several years, the Greens, the Katter Party and some ALP candidates have campaign against the natural gas industry and what these figures show is that people are far more concerned about economic opportunities, jobs and sustaining the resource boom,” Michael Bradley, APPEA director of external affairs told the AFR.

The issues rating highest to lowest were; the economy (29 per cent), cost of living including the carbon tax (27 per cent), immigration and asylum seekers (12 per cent), education (10 per cent), health (8 per cent) , policy costings and spending (6 per cent), same sex marriage (5 per cent), political scandals and gaffes (3 per cent), according to the polling.

5.52pm: The Financial Review’s Joanna Heath, who’s spent the day with Abbott, files this view of the Opposition Leader’s morning:

Tony Abbott started the day voting in his home electorate of Warringah, at Freshwater Surf Life Saving Club. The Opposition Leader appeared with his three daughters and wife, Margie.

The first protests of the day started here. A lone woman faced Abbott with a hand-painted sign calling him a “sexist, racist bigot”.

After Mr Abbott cast his vote he was greeted by two protesters dressed as Nemo, who have featured frequently through the campaign, urging him to take care of the Great Barrier Reef.

“We don’t need to worry about finding Nemo, we already did!” Abbott said in reply.

In the interviews he completed with the media this morning, Abbott still stressed that the battle was “not over yet”.

“I don’t believe the polls, Kevin Rudd doesn’t believe the polls.”

He described the race as like the AFL Grand Final – “one vote could swing it”.

When asked what would be on his priority list if he on government, Abbott listed off a Productivity Commission review on workplace relations and a white paper on state-federal relations.

On what kind of Prime Minister he would be: “The best leaders reach out to everyone and appreciate that you have to be Prime Minister for everyone, not just your side. That’s something Bob Hawke and John Howard were able to do”.

Mr Abbott’s second visit was to hand out how to vote cards in the suburb of Kingsford-Smith, held by the retiring former cabinet minister Peter Garrett on a 5.2 per cent margin.

The Liberal candidate there is cardiologist Dr Michael Feneley – whose skills came in handy when a GetUp volunteer collapsed. Both Feneley and Labor candidate Matt Thistlethwaite rushed to the elderly gentleman’s aid in a show of bipartisanship.

Abbott also faced protest here, from two men complaining about alleged cuts to the Prince of Wales hospital. But they were quickly drowned out by Liberal supporters shouting “We love Tony!”

Our national affairs editor Greg Earl has put together a handy explainer in the form of an interactive that examines some of the possible scenarios for the make-up of the Upper House after today – which could be all important after Abbott threatened a double dissolution if the Senate fails to pass legislation to abolish the carbon tax.

interactive

5.45pm: If the polling is correct, this room will be a lot more busy and jubilant in just a few hours’ time. It’s the site of the Liberal election night party at the Four Seasons Hotel in Sydney, and it’s time for sound check.

Photo: Joanna Heath

Meanwhile, Rudd’s function, for those who are wondering, is at the Brisbane Cricket Ground - also known as the Gabba.

Photo: James Massola

5:38pm: Here’s some more from the AFR’s James Massola, who’s been with Rudd in Queensland today: Rudd’s main challenger in the seat of Griffith, Bill Glasson said on Saturday morning that he believed the seat would go right down to the wire.

The Prime Minister holds the seat with a 8.5 per cent margin but Glasson has run a strong campaign and has been assisted by an army of volunteers.

If he loses, Rudd would join John Howard (2007) and Stanley Bruce (1929) in suffering the ignominy of being a sitting prime minister who loses his seat.

Voting early on Saturday, Glasson said “The reality is there is probably seven or eight per cent of voters still undecided this week and my fate and Mr Rudd’s fate lies in their hands”.

“It is going to be extremely close and I think it is going to come down to preferences ... It wouldn’t surprise me if it is a late result.”

The former president of the AMA said he was not confident of winning, but confident he had done everything he could to secure the seat.

While most pundits expect Rudd to hang on his seat – despite mounting evidence of a big anti-Labor swing in opinion polls – Glasson may have a second crack at the seat in just a few months if Rudd decides to leave parliament.

In the final week of the campaign, Rudd was repeatedly asked if he would stay in parliament if Labor was defeated, but would say only that his intention was to continue to serve the voters of Griffith – and Australia – as prime minister.

5.25pm: Now some updated exit polling from Roy Morgan and Channel 10. At 5pm the pollsters have the two-party preferred vote at 52 per cent to the Coalition to Labor’s 48 per cent. So no change since the last result at 4pm.

As for the primary vote, the polling suggests 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33.5 per cent for Labor, 11 per cent for the Greens and 5 per cent for the Palmer party.

5.22pm: We had some footage of Tony Abbott being mobbed in Sydney this afternoon in a not particularly friendly way. Here’s Rudd getting heckled in Brisbane as he turn up to vote.

Says the Financial Review’s James Massola: Kevin Rudd’s decision to vote late backfired spectacularly, with chaotic scenes and protests at the St Paul’s Anglican church in East Brisbane on Saturday.

Rudd arrived with his wife Therese Rein to be greeted by pro-refugee protesters from the Socialist Alliance chanting “Say it loud, say it clear, refugees are welcome here”.

He was also met by two protesters carrying placards with the names of two men, Ruben Barnes and Matthew Fuller, who died while installing home insulation under the scheme that was rolled out when Rudd was prime minister.

Protester Russell Blythe attacked the prime minister for never having publicly apologised for his nephew Fuller’s death.

“When Kevin Rudd was elected in 2007, within 30 milliseconds of being elected he said sorry to the Aboriginals,” Blythe said.

“Four years ago these men died and it was only because of a coronial inquiry that he’s talking about them now.”

Rudd and Rein’s vote was also delayed when an official from the Australian Electoral Commission refused to allow the travelling media into the church hall where the vote was to take place.

Media need permission to enter a polling station but the electoral official said none had been arranged, and that no prior warning had been given that the prime minister planned to vote at the church.

The prime minister and his wife maintained tight smiles as the vote went ahead after a ten minute delay, stopping to buy cake and thank supporters despite the noisy scenes.

It was a chaotic coda to a campaign that has been increasingly disorganised in the final week.

5.17pm: This pic was taken outside the polling place where Kevin Rudd cast his ballot this afternoon. Even if it was the sentiment in some parts of the community at the start of the campaign, it’s one that won’t be reflected in the likely margin of the Coalition’s victory.

Photo: Andrew Meares

5.11pm: Here’s the link to the Australian Electoral Commission’s virtual tally room for the keen.

5.04pm: Going back to the Newspoll exit polling of NSW marginal seats, David Bradbury is one of hte Labor MP who looks like they’re in real danger of losing their seats. Meanwhile, it looks like Coalition candidate Jaymes Diaz, who was the butt of more than a few campaign jokes, is on track to win. The Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that scheming is already under way in the Liberal Party to dump Diaz once the election dust has settled.

4.59pm: Now here’s a pic of Rudd and wife Therese Rein voting in Queensland earlier on Saturday. If exit polling is to be believed, he may well need both those votes by the time the night’s over. We’re assuming of course Therese voted for her husband:

Photo: Andrew Meares

4.52pm: Still with exit polling, 52 per cent of respondents do not want a double dissolution election if Tony Abbott can’t repeal the carbon tax. The economy and cost of living were the two biggest deciders for voters in marginal NSW and Queensland seats. Only 10 per cent rated asylum seekers as a decider and the carbon tax was on 5 per cent.

Michael Kroger on Sky’s saying that carbon tax equates to cost of living in voters’ minds so the 5 per cent figure isn’t an issue in his mind.

4.50pm: Here’s an interesting one, according to exit polling by Newspoll, 32 per cent of respondents say they would have still voted Labor if Julia Gillard was leading the party. That’s not too far off the primary vote Labor looks set to achieve with Rudd.

4.48pm: Sky News exit polling is predicting a 7.1 per cent swing against Rudd in the seat of Griffith, giving a 50-50 result there. If that swing played out uniformly across Queensland Labor could lose all of its seats in the state.

But even though people don’t want Rudd for PM, the Newspoll exit polling says he’s still the preferred leader for the ALP with 30 per cent of respondents giving him the thumbs up over second place Bill Shorten on 16 per cent. Anthony Albanese was the No. 3 choice with 10 per cent.

4.45pm: Here’s Sky News’ David Speers on Twitter with the results of the Newspoll exit poll again:

4.39pm: The Liberal Party’s Michael Kroger on Sky News says Tony Abbott is now Prime Minister. We’re pretty sure that’s not what the rule book would say, but that point’s probably moot. Kroger’s also starting in on Labor’s decision to return Rudd, saying the should have stuck with Gillard. Graham Richardson disagrees.

4.26pm: The Newspoll tips Labor to lose nine marginal seats in NSW and the outlook is equally grim for the party in Queensland where the pollsters are saying that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith is too close to call.

That’s a massive turn around from the beginning of the campaign.

4.20pm: A Newspoll exit poll is tipping the Labor Party will lose 21 seats on Saturday night, with the Coalition gaining 25 seats as three seats held by independents and one by Greens MP Adam Bandt move into Tony Abbott’s column.

In marginal seats in NSW and Queensland, Newspoll is tipping a 7 per cent swing against Labor.

4:16pm: The first exit polling of the 2013 federal election is giving the Coalition a hefty edge over the Australian Labor Party, with Roy Morgan and Channel 10 tipping a 52 per cent to 48 per cent margin on a two-party preferred basis at 4pm AEST.

According to the Roy Morgan-Channel 10 poll, the Coalition could pick up 42.5 per cent of the primary vote versus 33.5 per cent for the ALP. The poll has the Greens on 11 per cent and the Palmer United Party on 5 per cent.