NCAA tournament bracketology: Big East set to win top seeds, bubble battles on Selection Sunday

Villanova Wildcats guard Jalen Brunson (1) reacts in front of Providence Friars head coach Ed Cooley after making a three point shot during the second half of the Big East Conference Tournament Championship at Madison Square Garden.(Photo: Noah K. Murray, USA TODAY Sports)

Editor's Note: The final version of USA TODAY Sports' bracketology was updated after the final afternoon game slate on Sunday, March 11.

It’s surprising and rare for a bubble team to go toe-to-toe with a projected No. 1 seed — forcing overtime — as Providence did on Saturday against Villanova in the Big East final.

But that captures how the Big East is poised to win in multiple ways on Selection Sunday.

The Wildcats claimed the conference tournament title and are a lock for a No. 1 seed. Their conference foe Xavier, which won the regular season but lost in overtime to upstart Providence, will grab the last No. 1 — as the closest No. 2, North Carolina, just has too many losses (10).

Providence, meanwhile, shot up to a No. 9 seed after entering the league tournament as a projected No. 12 — in a play-in game. Seton Hall, a projected No. 7 seed, and Butler, another No. 9 seed, are in the safety zone as well.

On the unsafe area of the bubble, it’s the Big East that’s benefiting from ‘Nova and Xavier’s prowess — as well as the Friars’ late surge in the conference tourney. Fringe teams Marquette and Creighton were both in the final mix for teams to make the cut. Although Marquette snagged a No. 11 play-in seed in the final bracketology and Creighton is one of the first four out of the field, both of their résumés were bolstered by their league. Meanwhile, ACC bubble teams Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse all trailed.

As a whole, the Big East is likely to send six of 10 teams — just one back from the Big 12 for the best overall percentage of teams dancing. That's eye-raising considering the season-long story line about the strength of the Big 12 (with nine of 10 teams in the NCAA tourney equation). Yet two of the Big 12’s bubble teams, Oklahoma State and Baylor, will likely be left out of the field. And they were both behind Marquette and Creighton.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his fifth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past four March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.