Stocks of some iPod touch models are starting to run low and may be connected to recent promotional announcements, according to one Wall Street analyst, who also notes that the advent of the $199 iPhone 3G will put pressure on Apple to alter its pricing on the high-end media players in the next few months.

In a report to clients Tuesday, Lehman Brothers analyst Ben Reitzes observes that the 8GB iPod touch is now showing a small but significant delay of 1-2 business days for orders made from Apple's online store, while chain retailer Best Buy has seen reduced supplies of 16GB models at its own locations.

Slight shortages of the 8GB device are likely due to the recent launch of Apple's back-to-school promo, the analyst suggests. The sudden spike in orders for the device, which is given away for free to students when bought with a new Mac, may be surging ahead of supply.

Without the benefit of educational sales, though, Best Buy's stock changes are more difficult to explain. Reitzes offers no immediate prediction but notes that Apple is under pressure to take action on the iPod to realign its prices in the wake of the iPhone 3G.

"We believe Apple will need to reposition the iPod touch product by September now that the iPhone acquisition price is lower," he says in the report. "We expect the iPod touch to experience significant cannibalization from lower-priced iPhones."

No matter its origin, the supply pinch is said to be further evidence that Apple's wider iPod sales are faring better than expected. Current data points to iPod sales climbing by two percent year over year through early June where they were estimated to have dropped by the same amount, according to Reitzes.

This may turn Lehman's estimates of 9.5 million iPods sold in the spring quarter into a "conservative" estimate, he adds.

Even so, that growth may be behind the curve: the overall market grew 12 percent in the same period and was led by gains from Microsoft's Zune as well as unusual improvements by Coby and Philips players.

This is precisely why i'm not hopping on the 3G iphone bandwagon in July. I have an 8gig iphone and the only draw back in my mind is the limited capacity. I don't think 16gigs is quite enough either, and I'm fairly certain they'll bump the capacities along side of iPod refreshes in September just as they did last year.

I am waiting a couple a months to buy an new iPhone. I believe they will come out with a top of the line model that will include some the earlier speculations such as 32GB HD and a possible frontside iSight for iChat conferences. I have bought products from Apple at release dates only to have a better product come a couple of months later, so I will let the dust settle before making the purchase.

As far as the iPod Touch is concerned, I believe they will either upgrade it significantly or phase out the 8GB model as they did with the 4GB iPhone. With all the new technology showing up everyday, you cane be sure Apple will do something innovative with it.

By the way, I own a 32GB iPod touch and think it would easy to install this chip set into an iPhone.

I have no doubt that the back to school promotion would affect iPod Touch supplies - but Apple has to also be trying to work out where the iPod Touch goes next. The PERCEPTION that the iPod Touch is more expensive than the iPhone (even though it isn't really) will cannibalise touch sales.

I like the thoughts also expressed that there is another 3G iPhone lurking, which has video conferencing like regular cheap 3G phones.... though I'm not at all confident that's true.

I'm expecting the earlier rumors of a slightly larger phone to be true - though a larger phone will be harder to hold as a phone. So perhaps that's how the iPod Touch will grow, into an internet tablet.

ps. I suppose the other possibility is that a bigger iPhone will rely on a headset (or handsfree) for talking and include a video camera so we can video chat.

Come July 11th or sooner will see what the cost of the data plans (in Canada) are for the new phone. Wondering if you will be able to go in an buy the phone and say no thanks to the contract as you just want it as an iTouch.

24" iMac, 2 MB Pros, iPad Version 1, 2 x (iPhone 4s), Apple TV 3, a Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house. Spot on wall reserved for an Apple TV of some description. Oh yeah..and...

"We believe Apple will need to reposition the iPod touch product by September now that the iPhone acquisition price is lower," he says in the report. "We expect the iPod touch to experience significant cannibalization from lower-priced iPhones."

I'd be willing to bet that Apple would be pleased by such cannibalisation. However, the markets for the iPhone and the Touch simply don't overlap significantly. People are smart enough to recognise that the on-going costs of the iPhone are far more significant than the initial purchase price.

Come July 11th or sooner will see what the cost of the data plans (in Canada) are for the new phone. Wondering if you will be able to go in an buy the phone and say no thanks to the contract as you just want it as an iTouch.

I've been hoping for a drop in price for the iTouch, but given how Apple has already posted the price credit of $299 when you get a Touch along with a new Mac, I doubt they could drop the price before Sept. 15. After having posted this $299 deal, will they at the last minute change the price of the base iTouch to $199 and say, "well, we're only going to give you $199 back now." I can't imagine that would go over well with those who were planning on taking Apple up on this particular deal.

I've been waiting for a price drop on the iPod Touch for a while. I'd like the 32Gb version so I can use it as a complete home jukebox hooked up to my stereo, but $499 was just too steep.

Perhaps around September we'll see a 64GB iPod touch followed by a 32GB iPhone.

That is 1.5 to 2.5 months after the relese of the 3G iPhone, and that is only for 22 of the 75+ countries that will have the iPhone this year. IF they follow last year's pattern, a capacity upgrade will come at around 6 months, right after the holiday quarter and new HW componets, (better camera, fron-facing camera, better resolution display, OLED, etc.) would come in the summer. IMO, this upgrade pattern seems to make to me to maximize sales.

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigciccone

This is precisely why i'm not hopping on the 3G iphone bandwagon in July. I have an 8gig iphone and the only draw back in my mind is the limited capacity. I don't think 16gigs is quite enough either, and I'm fairly certain they'll bump the capacities along side of iPod refreshes in September just as they did last year.

It's funny that prior to the iPhone, 1/8th to 1/16th of one GB was the most common amount Flash built into a phone. 4 or 8GB was a lot to put into a phone and now 16GB isn't enough. Amazing how quickly our clture resets the bar for electronics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Magic_Al

Logically iPhone pricing shouldn't affect iPod touch pricing unless AT&T is also paying a $200 subsidy on the iPod touch. The iPhone is actually much more expensive over the life of the contract.

While that is true, so many people don't look at the total cost of ownership when making a purchase. I'll be saving money over the next year with the 3G iPhone, despite the $10/data increase, but I wish Apple did not have to do a typical subsidy model. It seems to limit a manufacturer's desire to update their firmware, though the App Store revenue should give Apple good reason to do so. But companies like Moto have no financial motivation to do so.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

32GB iPhone is plausible, but 64GB iTouch may be a bit much to expect at a reasonable price.

I think the wholesale price for 64GB is still several hundred dollars. A few months will help, but we may still have to wait until 2009 to see this capacity. Then getting to 128GB would probably evn be a greater wait.

PS: Could Apple use a special SSD controller chip that could balance data storage and retrieval across multiple lower quantity SSDs? For instance, offer 48GB model come the fall with 3x16GB SSD (potentially at a lower pricepoint than one 32GB SSD) that would be transparent to the user?

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Isn't is a little early for iTouch shortages? We're pretty confident Apple will update in September as always...

Yeah, I continue to believe that there is something about the portable roadmap at Apple that we haven't seen. This article (after mentioning the shortages), only states the obvious. It's pretty much certain that Apple would refresh if not totally update the iPod touch by September, if not sooner. The recent promotion is obviously to clear out old stock.

The real questions are things like:

- why are they *already* running out of touch's if the update is not for months and months?
- why is Apple going for two full months without stock of (or sales of) iPhone's?

The second one is driving me crazy as it just makes no sense at all. It's like throwing away 10% or your yearly sales for no reason other than the supply chain? And Apple was just voted to have the best supply chain in the world bar none by a very prestigious group that follows such things.

Either Apple is screwing up on the supply front big-time, (hard to believe), or something else is happening behind the scenes that we don't know about. I am guessing the second one.

In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...

Come July 11th or sooner will see what the cost of the data plans (in Canada) are for the new phone. Wondering if you will be able to go in an buy the phone and say no thanks to the contract as you just want it as an iTouch.

Why would you want to buy the iPhone if you're going to use it as an iTouch? The only reason the iPhone is $200 is because of the contract subsidy. If they did let you buy it without a contract, you would end up paying $400.

Yeah, I continue to believe that there is something about the portable roadmap at Apple that we haven't seen.

I think tey will be cutting out the iPod firmware in favour of OS X for the iPod. This would allow additional revenue not only to come from the iTunes media sales, but also from program being purchased. If it has a Safari it helps push WebKit as a browser that should be supported.ANd may simplify their OS development, tough I see some issues with OS X on a smaller processor with a smaller screen that may or may not have a touchscreen.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I have no doubt that the back to school promotion would affect iPod Touch supplies - but Apple has to also be trying to work out where the iPod Touch goes next. The PERCEPTION that the iPod Touch is more expensive than the iPhone (even though it isn't really) will cannibalise touch sales.

I like the thoughts also expressed that there is another 3G iPhone lurking, which has video conferencing like regular cheap 3G phones.... though I'm not at all confident that's true.

I'm expecting the earlier rumors of a slightly larger phone to be true - though a larger phone will be harder to hold as a phone. So perhaps that's how the iPod Touch will grow, into an internet tablet.

ps. I suppose the other possibility is that a bigger iPhone will rely on a headset (or handsfree) for talking and include a video camera so we can video chat.

Unless you don't have any cell phone (rare these days), the iTouch really is more expensive. You'll be paying your cellphone provider whether you have an iPhone or some other phone, but if you get an iPhone they knock $200 of the price. That makes the iPhone cheaper than the iTouch, which isn't subsidized and would have to be purchased along with paying for whatever cellphone you already have.

Come July 11th or sooner will see what the cost of the data plans (in Canada) are for the new phone. Wondering if you will be able to go in an buy the phone and say no thanks to the contract as you just want it as an iTouch.

Nope. I've already read a couple articles stating that Rogers is saying the iPhone won't be available to buy without signing a contract.

My real fear is Apple will for some reason transition the iPod Touch so that iPhone totally overtakes it, and we'll see no more iPod Touches.

Personally, I think the Touch is pretty well perfect. My intention is to buy the 2.0 software upgrade, sign up for MobileMe and away I go. I like my flip phone, and it serves me well on a month-by-month. If I can get my e-mail and all the rest on the run over misc WiFi hotspots whenever my Touch detects one, then I'm pretty damned happy, and all I'm paying at that point is 100 bucks a year for all my data and about 150 a year for my cellular. Score!

It's funny that prior to the iPhone, 1/8th to 1/16th of one GB was the most common amount Flash built into a phone. 4 or 8GB was a lot to put into a phone and now 16GB isn't enough. Amazing how quickly our clture resets the bar for electronics.

First of all, you make that sound like a negative thing. It really isn't.

Second of all, apple WANTS us to have higher capacities on our devices. They're enabling iPhones and iPods to not only play music, but movies, TV shows, games etc. , and also have created a business of delivering that content. They will sell more devices and more content with more capacity in these devices. A jump to 32 gigs would be logical for the next iphone update, costs permitting.

Why would you want to buy the iPhone if you're going to use it as an iTouch? The only reason the iPhone is $200 is because of the contract subsidy. If they did let you buy it without a contract, you would end up paying $400.

Where do you see that? The list price is as given. All cellphone list price are as given- if there is a subsidy it is stated. Clearly what you say is speculation- how do you know this price is the real price?

either they will bite the bullet and if the iPhone costs $100 to manu.

That is one assumed price of the components, not the manufacturing costs. NOor does it include: research, development, shipping or advertising.

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigciccone

First of all, you make that sound like a negative thing. It really isn't.

Second of all, apple WANTS us to have higher capacities on our devices. They're enabling iPhones and iPods to not only play music, but movies, TV shows, games etc. , and also have created a business of delivering that content. They will sell more devices and more content with more capacity in these devices. A jump to 32 gigs would be logical for the next iphone update, costs permitting.

I said "it was funny", I did not mean to imply it to be negative or positive. It's a characteristic of humanity, but I'd say it's a positive aspect of our nature that we continually strive for something better.

That would be the next step for the iPhone, but as capacity of SSD doubles exponentiallysomething we didn't have with HDDsthe time between viable costs seems to be expanding. While 32GB should be available in about 6 months, how long before 128GB or 256GB or 512GB become available at the same pricepoint? I asked it earlier in this thread as post script but I'll pose it again: "Could Apple use a special SSD controller chip that could balance data storage and retrieval across multiple lower [capacity] SSDs? For instance, offer 48GB model inthe iPod Touch come the fall as 3x16GB SSD (potentially at a lower [manufacturing cost] than one 32GB SSD) that would be transparent to the user?"

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I am waiting a couple a months to buy an new iPhone. I believe they will come out with a top of the line model that will include some the earlier speculations such as 32GB HD and a possible frontside iSight for iChat conferences. I have bought products from Apple at release dates only to have a better product come a couple of months later, so I will let the dust settle before making the purchase.

As far as the iPod Touch is concerned, I believe they will either upgrade it significantly or phase out the 8GB model as they did with the 4GB iPhone. With all the new technology showing up everyday, you cane be sure Apple will do something innovative with it.

By the way, I own a 32GB iPod touch and think it would easy to install this chip set into an iPhone.

I think you'll be waiting for a long time if you're expecting an iPhone Pro 3G...

Lehman Bros. is assuming that the iPhone and Touch markets are interchangeable, but they're wrong. The Touch will not be cannibalized to a significant degree by the advent of a cheaper iPhone. Few people who are interested in the Touch will see a $200 iPhone with an entry level plan of $70/month for 24 months as a viable alternative. And this is assuming that they'd entertain the idea of buying a cell phone at all. Whatever genius at Lehman came up with this analysis is getting paid way too much.

Lehman Bros. is assuming that the iPhone and Touch markets are interchangeable, but they're wrong. The Touch will not be cannibalized to a significant degree by the advent of a cheaper iPhone. Few people who are interested in the Touch will see a $200 iPhone with an entry level plan of $70/month for 24 months as a viable alternative. And this is assuming that they'd entertain the idea of buying a cell phone at all. Whatever genius at Lehman came up with this analysis is getting paid way too much.

What about the iPhone cannibalizing a cell phone -AND- a PMP. I used to carry an iPod w/ Video (Classic) for portable movie watching and music &a cell phone. Or an iPod Mini/Nano for the gym and a cell phone. Now I only have an iPod Shuffle (for the gym) and an iPhone (for everything else portable. From my experience, there is self-cannibalizing going on.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Lehman Bros. is assuming that the iPhone and Touch markets are interchangeable, but they're wrong. The Touch will not be cannibalized to a significant degree by the advent of a cheaper iPhone. Few people who are interested in the Touch will see a $200 iPhone with an entry level plan of $70/month for 24 months as a viable alternative. And this is assuming that they'd entertain the idea of buying a cell phone at all. Whatever genius at Lehman came up with this analysis is getting paid way too much.

Speaking as someone who owns a Touch but would almost certainly buy a 3G iPhone as my next purchase (or if I were making the same purchase today), I think you're dead wrong. I already have a cellphone plan that I could replace with the iPhone one. Yes, the iPhone one is a little bit more expensive than the one I have to today, but the additional capabilities are through the roof.

They are, in fact, the same market. So much so that I don't understand why iPhone sales numbers are not included in iPod sales numbers when analysts talking about one cannibalizing the other. Why separate them?

Speaking as someone who owns a Touch but would almost certainly buy a 3G iPhone as my next purchase (or if I were making the same purchase today), I think you're dead wrong. I already have a cellphone plan that I could replace with the iPhone one. Yes, the iPhone one is a little bit more expensive than the one I have to today, but the additional capabilities are through the roof.

They are, in fact, the same market. So much so that I don't understand why iPhone sales numbers are not included in iPod sales numbers when analysts talking about one cannibalizing the other. Why separate them?

I think you're in the minority among potential Touch customers.

There's every reason to separate the two product lines. The iPhone is a cell phone with an internet enabled media player built-in, and it requires a 2-year contract. The Touch is an internet enabled media player only and it costs zero dollars per month to use it. The 3G iPhone will cost at least $200 + $1680 over 2 years, bringing the total cost of ownership to $1880. The Touch currently starts at $300 + $0. Over 2 years the Touch costs $1580 less than the cheapest 3G iPhone combined with the cheapest rate plan. Also, Apple's own accounting department separates the two products. The iPhone is a subscription supported device, whereas the Touch is not. That's why it will cost Touch owners $10 for the Firmware 2.0 upgrade, but for iPhone owners it's free.

I think there will defiantly be a upgrade to the iTouch and maybe an upgrade to the iPhone capacity. Not expecting an upgrade of hardware (Front Camera) for the iPhone because that would be a infuriate release date buyers and be a repeat of last years 100 rebate.
They may increas the capacity of the itouch to 64 GB but seems like that would be about it. Unless I think they may release a smaller version of the iTouch much like the Nano.

I can see a mid-cycle bump in capacity for the 3G iPhone. That's one good reason to wait if you're a current iPhone owner. However, I will sit out this iPhone generation entirely. I'm a current iPhone owner, and for me it's just not better enough. I can't justify paying a higher monthy rate for it. Next summer's iPhone is bound to be a more mature and compelling product. This year's 3G feels too much like the result of trying to get a 3G model out the door as quickly as possible.

For $100 you can do that with the computer you already have: wirelessly over Airport Express.

My computer is in the basement, my stereo in the living room. With AirPort Express I'd have to run down a flight of stairs every time I wanted to select another song. With an iPod hooked up to the stereo I just press a button.

Regarding iPhone in Canada you can bet that Rogers won't let you have one without a contract. We live in the only country in the world where 3 year contracts and $7/month system access fees per phone are normal. A $35 couples plan actually costs more than $50 before tax. I call it misleading advertising, but most people seem content to be taken to the cleaners.

Now about the Touch I agree with people who say it's looking expensive now. I understand the argument that the iPhone cost is the sum of purchase price + contract price whereas the Touch is simply purchase price. However, I believe a more appropriate comparison is iPhone with contract versus Touch + competitor's basic phone with contract. The total cost of ownership is much closer when you look at it from that perspective.