2014 World Cup Preview: We Peer Into The Crystal (Foot)ball

I hit a low one winter’s afternoon in Pretoria, South Africa, at the World Cup 2010, some time during Japan-Paraguay — 0-0 after extra time. Finally Paraguay won on penalties, and we could all go home. Sitting in the stands numbed with cold and tedium, I thought, “Is this World Cup really the biggest media event in history? In fact: why is anybody watching this?” The gloomy truth is that World Cups have been getting steadily more boring. The easiest thing for a mediocre national team to learn is defending, and so the number of goals per World Cup has been falling steadily: 171 in 1998, 161 in 2002, 147 in 2006 and just 145 in 2010, when Spain became world champions by scoring only eight goals.

Yet there’s reason to hope that this coming World Cup will be better. Sure, most smaller teams will travel to Brazil just to defend. It might be smart to turn on the TV only once the first round is safely over. However, possibly the four best teams on earth today — Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Spain — are intent on providing more attacking thrills than we’ve seen in many a tournament.

At any World Cup, a great deal depends on a handful of great players. In the later rounds, defenses are so good that it almost takes a genius to unlock them. That’s how Zinedine Zidane and Diego Maradona could lead their countries almost single-handedly to triumphs. Players like that matter more on this stage than in ordinary soccer.

Lionel Messi, the ultimate player in that category, has never properly been activated at a World Cup. In 2006 Argentina’s coach, Jose Pekerman, wrongly considered the 19-year-old too young, and mostly left him on the bench. In 2010 Maradona, a disastrous coach, managed to create a tactical system in which Messi generally got the ball exactly where opponents wanted him: a safe 50 meters from goal. By 2018, Messi will probably be fading.

Though he has underachieved for Barcelona lately, Brazil must be his best chance to dominate a World Cup. Finally, Argentina have built a system around him. He’s also been made captain. Carlos Tevez, long beloved by Argentine fans, but as a mini-Messi bound to occupy the same spaces as the master, was first dropped from the team, and then retired from international duty. Now Messi runs Argentina’s attack. His team qualified top of the South American group. For once, the real Messi could feature at a World Cup.

It’s a similar story with Brazil. Neymar — Messi’s teammate at Barça — is the most exciting Brazilian talent since Kaká and Ronaldinho emerged over a decade ago. Like Messi, he has been made the focal figure in his national team. In last year’s Confederations Cup he shone in a free role from the left, scoring four times. Along the way Brazil rolled up Japan (3-0), Italy (4-2) and Spain in the final (3-0). Recent Brazilian coaches have offered more cautious, “European” soccer than Brazilian fans want, but playing at home, coach Felipe Scolari will have less freedom to turn out the sort of counterattacking Brazil that exited in the quarterfinal in 2010. This time, a nation demands something a bit more attacking.