Oscar's surprise nomination snubs

ACADEMY AWARD NOMINATIONS

Updated 7:38 pm, Thursday, January 10, 2013

Their portrayals of Mary Todd Lincoln and President Lincoln earned Oscar nominations for Sally Field and Daniel Day-Lewis.

Their portrayals of Mary Todd Lincoln and President Lincoln earned Oscar nominations for Sally Field and Daniel Day-Lewis.

Photo: David James, Associated Press

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Helen Hunt (left) of "The Sessions" and Anne Hathaway of "Les Misérables" will vie for the best supporting actress Oscar.

Helen Hunt (left) of "The Sessions" and Anne Hathaway of "Les Misérables" will vie for the best supporting actress Oscar.

Photo: Frazer Harrison, Getty Images

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Helen Hunt (left) of "The Sessions" and Anne Hathaway of "Les Misérables" will vie for the best supporting actress Oscar.

Helen Hunt (left) of "The Sessions" and Anne Hathaway of "Les Misérables" will vie for the best supporting actress Oscar.

Photo: Marion Curtis, Associated Press

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Jessica Chastain might top her two-year career transformation with a best actress Oscar win for her performance in "Zero Dark Thirty."

Jessica Chastain might top her two-year career transformation with a best actress Oscar win for her performance in "Zero Dark Thirty."

Photo: Jonathan Olley, Associated Press

Oscar's surprise nomination snubs

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The big news coming out of the Academy Awards announcement Thursday morning isn't the 12 Oscar nominations for "Lincoln" but rather that "Zero Dark Thirty" did not get a nomination for its director, Kathryn Bigelow. Until then, most Oscar watchers predicted a best picture race coming down to a choice between those two great films, the more classical one directed by Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln") or the more innovative, directed by Bigelow ("Zero"). Instead it's going to be a much different Oscar race than anticipated.

"Zero Dark Thirty" is indeed nominated for best picture, along with eight other films. But based on academy history, it's safe to say that the only films that stand a real chance of winning are the ones also nominated for best director, and those are "Life of Pi," "Silver Linings Playbook," "Amour," "Lincoln" and "Beasts of the Southern Wild." Three other films - "Argo," "Les Misérables" and "Django Unchained" - also have best picture nominations, but the producers of those don't really need to buy a tuxedo. They might as well rent it, because no one will see them on television.

So we have the answer, one month early, to the season's biggest question: Yes, the academy did feel the pressure concerning "Zero Dark Thirty." The film has been at the center of a controversy for its presentation of the role torture played in finding Osama bin Laden, as well as for its general attitude toward torture, which is neither approving nor disapproving. Powerful senators from both parties have criticized the film, but there had been some talk that outside pressure might have the reverse effect and stiffen the industry's spine in support of one of the year's best films and filmmakers.

Well, some support. Some spine.

With "Les Misérables" also shut out of best director - that's a good thing - "Lincoln" looks as if it has a clear field in the best picture category. In a way, that's also good news, as it probably is the best film of 2012. But it deserved a worthy competitor. Instead, its chief competitor now seems to be "Life of Pi" (11 nominations), Ang Lee's technically impressive but dramatically inert story of a boy, a boat and a tiger. Or perhaps it's "Silver Linings Playbook," which is nominated in all four acting categories, despite being lightweight and tonally off.

Out of the running

Really, it's rather amazing to be sitting here in January, knowing that "Django Unchained," "Argo" and "Zero Dark Thirty" are out of the running for best picture. The Bigelow bombshell obscures two other big injustices worth noting, that Quentin Tarantino ("Django") and Ben Affleck ("Argo") also didn't get best director nods.

Best actor, meanwhile, looks as if it's Daniel Day-Lewis' to lose. Joaquin Phoenix was also quite good in "The Master," but his film was disliked by many (loved by others), and it would be difficult to make the case for him over Day-Lewis. The same could be said for Denzel Washington ("Flight") and Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings Playbook"). Of course, the academy could take leave of its senses altogether (particularly its sense of hearing) and vote in Hugh Jackman, whose singing in "Les Misérables" was often so off pitch that he virtually deserves an Oscar for keeping a straight face.

Best actress has one strong candidate, Jessica Chastain, whose performance in "Zero Dark Thirty" caps an astonishing two-year rise that has transformed her from an unknown actress into Meryl Streep Jr. But is "Zero" so toxic to academy voters that they might actually give it to Jennifer Lawrence, who was perfectly charming in "Silver Linings Playbook," but hardly Oscar worthy? Perhaps Emmanuelle Riva is in real contention, as an elderly woman falling apart in "Amour." It's difficult to imagine the 9-year-old Quvenzhané Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild") taking the prize - what on earth were they thinking? - or Naomi Watts, who spends half of "The Impossible" in a coma. When she's awake, she's good.

Director will go to the winner of best picture, so that will probably be Spielberg for "Lincoln." No one else who remotely deserves to win was nominated. Perhaps Michael Haneke has an outside shot. His film, "Amour," looks sure to win best foreign film.

Supporting actor

Supporting actor is usually a strong category, and so it is again this year. Forget Alan Arkin in "Argo." Love the guy, but no. And forget - at least I hope we can forget - Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook." That leaves us with three great performances going head to head: Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") and Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained"). All three are previous Oscar winners, so it's not as if it's someone's turn. Given the academy's support for "Lincoln," Jones is probably the front-runner. But to me choosing in this category would be as difficult as choosing between Joe Pesci ("Goodfellas") and Bruce Davison ("Longtime Companion") in 1990. Hope for a three-way tie.

The supporting actress category contains a couple of great performances - Sally Field's as Mary Lincoln in "Lincoln" and Helen Hunt's as a sex surrogate in "The Sessions." (Hunt's was really a starring role.) I'd like to see Field win, if only to see how she reacts when the academy doesn't just like her, or really like her, but really, really likes her. (It would be her third Oscar.) Also nominated are Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook") and Amy Adams ("The Master"). But people are saying the smart money is on Anne Hathaway, nominated for wrecking the best song in "Les Misérables" - "I Dreamed a Dream" - by sobbing through it.

In the animation category, Pixar's "Brave" will be competing against "Frankenweenie," "ParaNorman," "The Pirates! Band of Misfits," and "Wreck-It Ralph."

Anyway, all in all, this year's Oscar nominations make a rather bizarre list. Instead of amping up the competition, the academy has muted it and robbed the upcoming ceremony of much of its suspense.

One bright spot, though: not a single nomination for "The Dark Knight Rises."

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