This year’s Super Bowl teams are so
similar in history, defenses, quarterbacks and even coaches
named Mike that the difference in the game may come down to a
rookie with his foot in a cast.

The Green Bay Packers are 2 1/2-point favorites over the
Pittsburgh Steelers among oddsmakers, the narrowest spread for
the Super Bowl in 27 years, two days before the National
Football League championship game in Arlington, Texas. Play-by-
play simulations that account for hundreds of variables have
both teams winning about 50 percent of the time -- and show one
advantage involving Steelers Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey.

Beyond the heroics of quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger of
Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay, the difference
ultimately may be that Pouncey, 21, is going to miss the game
with a high left ankle sprain, according to the simulations
conducted by Los Angeles-based AccuScore.

“He had a great year and is one of the more talented
centers in the league,” Jimmy Johnson, 67, a two-time Super
Bowl-winning coach and now an NFL analyst for News Corp.’s Fox,
said in a telephone interview. “Without question that’s going
to be a concern for Pittsburgh. It will have a major effect.”

Pouncey, in his first NFL season, sustained the ankle
injury in the American Football Conference championship on Jan.
23 against the New York Jets. He didn’t practice this week, and
the Steelers said today that he would miss the Super Bowl.

Super Simulations

With Pouncey in the lineup, the Steelers won 50.3 percent
of the 10,000 play-by-play simulations run by AccuScore, which
estimates probabilities of NFL games while accounting for
variables from injuries and weather to the time remaining on the
clock and yardage needed on each down. In a second set of 10,000
simulations run without Pouncey at center, the Packers won 50.5
percent of the time.

“It’s on me,” Pouncey told reporters earlier this week.
“If I don’t feel the right way going out there, I’m not going
to play. If I can’t, I’ll be on the bench waving a ‘Terrible
Towel.’”

Pouncey will have plenty of company as a spectator. The
crowd at Cowboys Stadium will exceed 100,000 and the Steelers
and Packers each have a large following.

Pittsburgh, which is seeking a record seventh Super Bowl
title, ranked fourth in a 2010 Harris Interactive poll of most
popular NFL franchises, one spot behind Green Bay, whose 12
league championships are the most all-time.

The Packers boast the NFL’s best postseason winning
percentage at 28-16, followed by the Steelers at 33-19.

Quarterbacks

Pittsburgh has won two championships in the past five years
behind the 28-year-old Roethlisberger, who can join Terry Bradshaw of the Steelers, Joe Montana of the San Francisco
49ers, Troy Aikman of the Dallas Cowboys and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots as the only starting quarterbacks with
three or more Super Bowl victories. Rodgers is looking to cement
his own legacy in Green Bay, where predecessor Brett Favre led
the Packers to their last title 14 years ago.

“It would be a fulfillment of this season and nothing
more,” Rodgers, 27, told reporters this week. “There’s
obviously other correlations that people are going to take
depending on how we do, but I’m just focused on this season.”

Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, 38, can become the youngest coach
with two Super Bowl titles, having won his first two years ago
with the Steelers. Tomlin is just the team’s third coach in 42
years, after Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher.

Lambeau, Lombardi

Mike McCarthy, 46, also is following a rich tradition in
Green Bay, where he’s trying to join Hall of Fame members Curly
Lambeau and Vince Lombardi as championship coaches. The Super
Bowl trophy is named after Lombardi, who won the first two games
in the series.

The Steelers ranked No. 1 and the Packers No. 2 in fewest
points allowed this season, and both defenses are led by long-
haired playmakers. Steelers safety Troy Polamalu was voted the
NFL’s defensive player of the year by two votes over Packers
linebacker Clay Matthews.

Packers nose tackle B.J. Raji may play an equally important
role opposite the Steelers’ center, who will be backup Doug Legursky. Raji, 24, helped seal Green Bay’s victory over the Chicago Bears in the National Football Conference championship
game with an 18-yard interception return for a touchdown with 6
minutes, 4 seconds remaining. Legursky, who said a center is the
“brains” of the offensive line, botched a fourth-quarter snap
that led to a safety as Pouncey’s replacement in the AFC title
game.

Fewest Mistakes

“When you have two teams as similar as us and the
Steelers, it comes down to execution,” Packers defensive
coordinator Dom Capers told reporters this week. “The team that
makes the fewest mistakes is going to win the game.”

Only three times in the Super Bowl’s 44-year history has
the team that made more turnovers won the game. Winning teams
have committed 53 turnovers in the Super Bowl to 138 for losing
teams.

The only turnover in last year’s Super Bowl was an
interception thrown by Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning
with 3:12 left in the fourth quarter. New Orleans cornerback
Tracy Porter returned it 74 yards for a touchdown that helped
the Saints clinch a 31-17 victory.

Legursky said he wants to be the difference-maker for the
Steelers, regardless of what the predictions and simulations
say.

“It’s my battle if my number is called,” Legursky, 24,
said earlier this week. “I’ll be ready. I’m excited about the
opportunity to show that I can take the reins of the offensive
line and hopefully lead these guys to a win.”