Dem poll analysis: Competing visions

Just under a year out from the 2012 Presidential election, the path to victory for Democrats is looking eminently clearer and more navigable. The presence of a burgeoning popular protest movement focused on economic inequality in the United States and the outsize influence of Wall St., along with voters’ sound rejection of the socially conservative and pro-corporate/Tea Party agenda at the polls last week, provide President Barack Obama and the Democrats with some welcome wind at their backs. Voters handed devastating blows to a range of Right-wing measures, previewing the consequences in store for politicians who would ignore the American people’s priorities and instead pursue a narrow agenda that overreaches and would only exacerbate the country’s ills. Last Tuesday’s results also underscore the power of an organized, engaged electorate, united around a common message—a model Democrats will be looking to replicate for 2012. While dissatisfaction with both Parties is high, Democrats face the next twelve months with several important advantages, including early leads in the Presidential trial heats, an electorate far more focused on jobs and the economy than the deficit, and an opposition Party that is defined in roughly equal parts by the base’s displeasure with its potential Presidential nominees, and the broader electorate’s withering assessment of the GOP’s control of Congress. Democrats also have a winning message—a plan for jobs and to protect Social Security and Medicare.

In head-to-head matchups in the latest POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll, President Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48% Obama to 43% Romney) and Herman Cain (49% Obama to 40% Cain) by sound margins and noticeable leads in intensity of support. Roughly 80% of Obama’s support in both trial heats is derived from voters who say they are definitely going to vote for him. More encouragingly, independents’ appetite for either of the current Republican frontrunners is limited. Independents support Obama 47% to 34% over Romney—Romney being the candidate a 48% plurality of Republicans believes will win the nomination. Moreover, a majority of independents supports Obama over Cain (51% to 27%), who, in spite of the perceived inevitability of an eventual Romney nomination, is the narrow first choice of the crowded Republican field. Obama not only wins over swing independents, but consolidates his partisan base as well, with 87% of Democrats supporting him against both Romney and Cain, while 83% of Republicans support Romney and only 79% of Republicans support Cain in matchups against Obama. Obama is also performing unusually well among seniors, a group that has proved elusive to him in the past. He bests Romney by 2 points (47% to 45%) and Cain by 12 points (48% to 36%) among seniors nationwide, despite having lost them by 8 points in 2008.

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The tied vote Democrats have with Republicans—a one-point advantage—on the generic Congressional trial heat since May has held (44% to 43%) over the past six months. However, while the topline dynamics may appear static, there has been considerable movement underneath—particularly among independents. In September, independent voters leaned toward the GOP (29% to 26%), with a 45% plurality undecided. Today, Democrats have a decisive 9-point advantage over the GOP among independents (35% to 26%), with another 39% undecided. The Republican wave that characterized 2010 and provided a specious rationale for the pursuit of a pro-corporate/Tea Party agenda is washed up, providing Democrats with an opportunity to take back the House. However, the GOP currently has a narrow advantage when it comes to the consolidation of its partisans, with 90% of Republicans supporting the Republican candidate compared to 85% of Democrats supporting the Democrat. While Democrats need to win over the plurality of undecided independents, they must be careful not to sacrifice the support of their base in the process. In fact, building enthusiasm among Democrats needs to be a primary imperative, particularly as the enthusiasm gap has reappeared: 79% of Republicans and 77% of independents are extremely likely to vote, compared to only 65% of Democrats. That includes only 66% of young voters, 58% of African Americans, and 65% of single voters.