Quotes of the day

posted at 10:48 pm on November 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

It is highly unlikely that the president can win this election if he is losing Independents by double digits. And there aren’t any indicators suggesting that Democrat turnout will be large enough to compensate for that.

Which leads to the third point: voter enthusiasm and energy is with the GOP. A recent Pew poll had Republicans with a 14-point lead over Democrats in terms of vote likelihood.

On average, GOP insiders polled by National Journal gave Obama slightly less than even odds he’ll occupy the White House another four years. The 4.6 average score – based on a 1 (no chance at re-election) to 10 (virtual certainty) scale — was a precipitous drop since the last Insiders Poll, a late September survey in which Republicans pegged the score at 5.8. That poll was taken before the first presidential debate in early October, after which Mitt Romney’s support surged. In April, Republican Insiders rated Obama at exactly even odds…

“This is the first time that I really feel the momentum swinging to Romney,” said one Republican. “It has been a slow progression for the Republican since early September, but it is steady and no matter what Obama throws at him, it doesn’t hurt.”

Said another Republican, “The trend is definitely in favor of Romney — with independents leading the way.”

***

Republicans look and sound notably more energized and exuberant than their Democratic counterparts as they swagger with self-assurance toward the electoral finish line. They point out the recent expansion of the swing states map, with one-time Democratic strongholds like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota suddenly rated as toss-ups, and receiving money and attention from both parties. The GOP also notes that the Quinnipiac Poll giving Obama a big lead in Ohio showed Romney with a similarly comfortable advantage (five points) among Ohio independents—and in a state so closely divided between Republicans and Democrats the candidate who carries independents will almost certainly prevail. Moreover, new unemployment numbers due for release on Friday won’t help the president much if they show another slight decline, but can hurt him badly if they push up once again above 8 percent (as many economists expect)—putting a serious, last-minute dent in the administration argument about steady, relentless improvement.

Meanwhile, the sharply contrasting tone of the two campaigns as they make their closing pitches to the American people hardly suggests greater confidence on the part of the Democrats. Though Romney talks of “big change” and grand plans for the future, the Obama machine continues to emphasize the harshest possible personal attacks on the character of the GOP nominee. Most recently, Democrats have even pushed the absurd idea that Mitt wants to abolish FEMA and to leave disaster-stricken citizens to their own devices. While the Republicans released the single most optimistic and inspiring ad of the whole campaign (a little masterpiece of mood and editing called “Momentum”) the Democrats continue with the surly, hostile, aggrieved attitude that served the president so poorly in the third (and final) debate.

***

If Romney wins, or at least if he peels off a significant number of those who voted for Obama last time, it will be precisely because lots of people “never really voted” for Obama in 2008. As should be painfully obvious, an awful lot of people pulled the level for Obama in 2008 because they were tired of Republicans; because they were bored by the wars; because they didn’t like McCain or Palin, or both; because Obama seemed optimistic and reasonable; because the financial crisis hit in September; because they didn’t listen to a word the Democratic candidate said but were nonetheless convinced by the vapid “hope and change” stuff and the (always empty) promise to rise above “politics”; and, yes, because he was black. (Why this is so controversial is beyond me: I know people who are very proud of themselves for having been, as they put it, “part of history,” who admit that Obama’s race was a considerable factor in their vote, but who recoil when you feed back to them what they just said in plain English.)

One of Obama’s biggest mistakes — perhaps his biggest mistake — was to conclude that he had a mandate for his brand of progressive change. He did not. The Obama campaign was always, in fact was deliberately, divorced from his politics. A smarter, less egotistical man would have realized as much. Obama did not.

***

But let’s say Gov. Mitt Romney ekes out wins in virtually every battleground state. What will Democrats say to make themselves feel better about themselves the next day?

1. The economy just sucked. It was too badly broken for Obama to fix it, or his solutions (targeting banks early on but not forcing them to help ordinary people more) were not sufficient. In retrospect, how could a president possibly win re-election with unemployment this high and with a stream of forecasts about anemic growth over the next year?…

3. Obama fatigue. As much as they liked him personally, they look back at his presidency and feel a struggle. It’s hard to look back at the last four years and smile; his presidency, through maybe no fault of his own, really, was necessary to get the country back on track, but he had to do a lot of things that were very unpopular, and because he governed from principle, and not politics, he paid a price for it…

8. The idea that Obama could have and should have done better, even given all the circumstances he had. His failed to live up to his promises to change Washington. He was not the Obama people voted for in 2008; he couldn’t possibly be that person.

***

He thought he had “a gift,” as he is said to have told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He thought he had a special ability to sway the American people, or so he suggested to House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

But whenever he went over the the heads of the media and Congress and went to the people, in prime-time addresses, it didn’t really work. He did not have a magical ability to sway. And—oddly—he didn’t seem to notice.

It is one thing to think you’re Lebron. Its another thing to keep missing the basket and losing games and still think you’re Lebron.

And that really was the problem: He had the confidence without the full capability. And he gathered around him friends and associates who adored him, who were themselves talented but maybe not quite big enough for the game they were in. They understood the Democratic Party, its facts and assumptions. But they weren’t America-sized. They didn’t get the country so well.

Perhaps Mr. Romney’s most appealing trait is his optimism: We have problems, a whole lot of them, but they are solvable. Americans have always believed that. Yet the sentiment seems unusual given the current President who won with large Democratic majorities but has spent four years blaming his predecessors for every ill as if they are intractable.

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Haven’t read the comment section yet, but I’d like some thoughts on this…

If the Unemployment Rate goes down in the morning…how exactly is that possible? I thought you needed at least 200,000+ to keep up with population…Yet if it goes down again this time…we’ll have had 3 straight months of job creation in the 100K-150K range and yet the rate went from 8.3 to less than 7.8…HOW THE F IS THAT POSSIBLE?

If the Unemployment Rate goes down in the morning…how exactly is that possible? I thought you needed at least 200,000+ to keep up with population…Yet if it goes down again this time…we’ll have had 3 straight months of job creation in the 100K-150K range and yet the rate went from 8.3 to less than 7.8…HOW THE F IS THAT POSSIBLE?

The confusion rises from the fact that the unemployment rate and the jobs gain figure are calculated by two different surveys. The first one just polls random people, and last month they were able to somehow magically find 800,000 more people working than the previous month. That’s why the rate went down. Who knows, maybe those BLS guys can perform the same “magic” again this month.

yes, because he was black. (Why this is so controversial is beyond me: I know people who are very proud of themselves for having been, as they put it, “part of history,” who admit that Obama’s race was a considerable factor in their vote, but who recoil when you feed back to them what they just said in plain English.)

yes, because he was black. (Why this is so controversial is beyond me: I know people who are very proud of themselves for having been, as they put it, “part of history,” who admit that Obama’s race was a considerable factor in their vote, but who recoil when you feed back to them what they just said in plain English.)

I know that it was popular back in 2008 to say that Obama succeeded despite his race. But it seems to me that, had Obama been white with the same set of qualifications and accomplishments, he would never have been given a second look. More than anything, the color of Obama’s skin had a lot to do with his rapid rise to power. Obama himself constantly fueled the incessant focus on his skin color. He brought it up whenever he could, often suggesting that it was such a hardship for him to have to overcome. Those who refer to Barack Obama as an “Affirmative Action Pres.” are right on the money. I believe all the focus on Obama’s race was a very sad thing, and we see today that we are even more racially polarized, it seems. The color of someone’s skin should have nothing to do with who they are. I am sick of liberals and their obsession with race. I want race to be a non-issue.

You’ve really seen an election turn in the final 4 days? I don’t care if they fudge it to 3%, the dye is cast.
I watch Moaning Joe and they’re just grasping at straws. That goon who can barely talk Politico’s Mike Allen spending 15 minutes spitting how wonderous it is Obama has “so many more ads than Romney.”
Well OK Stupid, what does the polling say where all those ads are running? Oh, right, Romney is closing in or leading.

In Indiana, I just saw a poll showing Romney up over Obama by 57% to 39% in this state. Mourdock is up one in the senate race.
If Romney’s margin is correct, he will have some very big coattails in Indiana.
esr1951 on November 2, 2012 at 7:01 AM

Excellent! What is your prediction for how the MO Senate race will turn out?

I think it is totally sweet that “I’ll create a Department of Business!” is getting laughs from audiences and may be the final impression voters have that this guy has NO CLUE WHAT HE’S DOING, and he said it to Mika!

Hi everyone. Still without power here in NJ, very sporadic Internet on my iPhone. We are all fine, but going a bit nuts. Curfew from 7pm-7am to discourage looters. They should just shoot them. We have gas for cooking and hot water, but no heat. Many worse off than us.

If I can’t vote on Tuesday I will completely loose it! All my R&R signs stayed in the ground through the storm. He’s going to win, I can feel it!

But what’s up with crazy Gallup one…7% UE, what are they smoking and where does that one come from.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 AM

I don’t know how Gallup comes up with a 7. My guess is that somehow the number will be beaten into something that is meant to make Barry looks good going into Tuesday, but doubt if they can be too blatant.
Bloomberg is forecasting 7.9% and 125k new jobs. I was speculating BLS will roid it up.

But what’s up with crazy Gallup one…7% UE, what are they smoking and where does that one come from.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 AM

I don’t get that, either. If you’re just gonna make the number up, why not lie big, and go for 5.6%.

massrighty on November 2, 2012 at 8:00 AM

Gallup do their own report, independent from the BLS and I get it that it’s their own calculations might differfrom the BLS one. but what the heck did they throw in there that made it all come out at 7% is beyond me. I will go and look at thier detailed report when I get a chance.

Speaking with Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) and Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, Matthews began by warning that “there’s no other planet to go to if the atmosphere begins to be destructive of our living here.”

Congressman Markey wasted no time in referencing the Koch brothers, saying they want to keep “tax breaks” for big oil but “do away” with breaks for alternative forms of energy, and that they’d keep us dependent on foreign oil by modifying fuel efficiency standards.

Matthews interjected:

“Well, Professor Oppenheimer, back in the ‘60s, we called such people pigs. Pigs. No, really, they don’t care about the planet, they don’t care about the destruction of war. All they want is what they got, their stuff. And they want more of it.

“Is that what we’re facing here, just greed? I’m not talking about the guy working in the coalmine. That’s hard work. I’m talking about people who won’t listen to you, won’t listen to science because they want more stuff.”

Even Professor Oppenheimer seemed a little uncomfortable by the turn of events, telling Matthews he isn’t big on “name calling.”

Newsbusters’ Noel Sheppard spoke with Mark Holden, Senior VP and General Counsel of Koch Industries about the interview, and related:

“Representative Markey’s comments about Koch’s views on corporate subsidies were false – we are on the record as opposing all subsidies, including subsidies to oil companies. Likewise, Rep. Markey, who opposes expanded oil and gas exploration and production in the US, falsely claims that Koch is somehow increasing dependence on oil from foreign countries, ” said Holden via email.

According to Koch Family Foundations, Sheppard adds, the Koch brothers have pledged or given roughly $1 billion to “further cancer research, enhance medical centers, support educational institutions, sustain arts and cultural institutions, and conduct public policy studies.”

Holden reportedly concluded by noting that Matthews has something of a “reputation” for making “emotional and ill-advised comments.”

btw, in case you didn’t hear, New Jersey will deploy military trucks to serve as polling places on Election Day in storm-battered communities .

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 8:11 AM

Whaa ??? How is this even possible? And where will the poll (well, truck) workers be? In the trucks?? Who is going to oversee the process under the unusual circumstances ? Not that it matters really in NJ, but still.

If this country again follows the Pied Piper over the pier and into the sea, then it probably isn’t worth saving and you can say goodbye to a once great Republic and hello to the Marxist/Socialist States of America. Sad but true.

Rush mentioned this site yesterday. It’s sort of a social/political network for “like-minded” people (republicans/conservatives). It allows you to locate people, groups and events in your area. Wish I had known about it earlier.

And accused Tyrone Woods father of the same. After his oh, so touching interview.

katy the mean old lady on November 2, 2012 at 8:19 AM

Why the heck is that idiot still on Fox pahroll anyways…and exactly who on earth would ever hire that cretin, even on the left?? MSNBC, maybe, yet their de,entia is different than his, more strident and loiuder, mot sre he will adjust there. But seriously, Fox is just downright bizarre for not having fired him long time ago. I simply don’t get it. Another syrange things, I don’t undertsand where on earth they find all these obnoxious idiots to fill in the quota of ‘liberal’ contributors/hosts, etc, Beckel, Colmes, Juan Willaims. ..

Remember to remind people of this over the weekend folks – unemployment is higher now than it was when Obama took office – and except for a “questionable” report last month, has remained that way for the past 4 years.

Most recently, Democrats have even pushed the absurd idea that Mitt wants to abolish FEMA and to leave disaster-stricken citizens to their own devices.

From what I’m reading about NYC, people cold hungry, Dumpster diving, Mayor hosting marathon, long gas lines, help no where to be found abolishing FEMA may be the wave of the future. Just don’t give Mayors control.