How Iran is pushing U.S. aside in Iraq

By Derek Harvey and Michael Pregent

updated 11:40 AM EDT, Mon July 7, 2014

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters assemble at a shrine on Iraq's Mount Sinjar on Friday, December 19. The Kurdish military said that with the help of coalition airstrikes, it has "cleansed" the area of ISIS militants. ISIS has been advancing in Iraq and Syria as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region.

A Peshmerga fighter looks down at the body of an alleged ISIS fighter in Zummar, Iraq, on Thursday, December 18.

A Kurdish fighter stands next to a destroyed armored vehicle in northern Iraq on December 18. The vehicle was destroyed by an improvised explosive device placed by ISIS militants.

Peshmerga fighters stop to check a vehicle in Zummar on December 18 as they continue to battle ISIS fighters near the border with Syria.

Pro-Iraqi government forces guard a shrine in Balad, Iraq, on Monday, December 15.

A Yazidi woman displaced by ISIS militants tends to a fire Wednesday, December 10, at a shelter in Dohuk, Iraq.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani, Syria, area holds laundry at a refugee camp in Suruc, Turkey, on Monday, November 17. Tens of thousands of people have fled Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, to escape ISIS.

Smoke rises from Kobani following airstrikes on November 17. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets to take out the group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani area holds on to a fence at a refugee camp in Suruc on Sunday, November 16.

People in Suruc watch smoke rise near the Syrian border during clashes between ISIS members and armed groups on Thursday, November 13.

A bomb (upper left) falls on an ISIS position in Kobani during an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, November 8.

Iraqi military forces take up position in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on November 8.

Fire and smoke rise from Kobani following airstrikes against ISIS on Thursday, October 30.

Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar on October 30 after retaking the area from ISIS.

Smoke rises during fighting in Kobani on Monday, October 27.

ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23.

An explosion rocks Kobani during a reported car-bomb attack by ISIS militants on Monday, October 20.

People watch Kobani from a hill near the Turkey-Syria border on October 20.

Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they fight ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.

A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, October 18.

Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds have been held there since crossing from Syria into Turkey.

Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

Smoke rises from Kobani on Sunday, October 12.

Syrian Kurds from Kobani stand outside the grounds of a refugee camp in Suruc on Saturday, October 11.

Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk on Tuesday, September 30.

Iraqi Shiite militiamen aim their weapons during clashes with ISIS militants in Jurf al-Sakhar on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait behind border fences to cross into Suruc on September 28.

Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

An ISIS flag flies on the other side of a bridge at the front line of fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Rashad, Iraq, on Thursday, September 11.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reads on a flight en route to Iraq on Wednesday, September 10. Kerry traveled to the Mideast to discuss ways to bolster the stability of the new Iraqi government and combat ISIS.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

An Iraqi fighter jet flies over Amerli, Iraq, on September 3. Amerli had been under siege by ISIS militants.

Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.

Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

A fighter with Kurdish Peshmerga forces battles ISIS militants near Mosul on Monday, August 18.

Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

Volunteers of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society unload boxes of goods before distributing them August 14 to families who fled from ISIS.

From the flight deck of the USS George H.W. Bush, which is in the Persian Gulf, two U.S. fighter jets take off for a mission in Iraq on Monday, August 11. U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic militants and food drops for Iraqis who are trapped by the militants.

Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

Iraqi Shiite volunteers who have joined government forces to fight ISIS take part in a training session near Basra, Iraq, on Thursday, August 7.

Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.

A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

Iraqis who fled fighting in the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar try to enter a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Wednesday, July 2.

Peshmerga fighters check cars at the entrance of a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Thursday, June 26.

Kurdish Peshmerga take their positions behind a wall on the front line of the conflict with ISIS militants in Tuz Khormato, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 25.

Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.

New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17.

Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala, Iraq, on June 17.

Members of ISIS prepare to execute soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images.

Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service Thursday, June 12, in Baghdad.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Writers: Iran, Russia aid to Iraq imperils U.S. call for al-Maliki to make Iraq government inclusive

Thus Al-Maliki is less likely to leave or to stop shunning Sunnis, they say

They say Iran helps al-Maliki return "worst of the worst" to key positions to oppress Sunnis

Writers: Tehran will see reforms U.S. wants as limits on Iranian influence

Editor's note: Derek Harvey is a former senior intelligence official who worked on Iraqfrom 2003-09, including numerous assignments in Baghdad. Michael Pregent is a former U.S. Army officer and former senior intelligence analyst who worked on Iraq from 2003-11, including in Mosul in 2005-06 and Baghdad in 2007-10. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the authors.

(CNN) -- United States leaders have rightly said that defeating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and resolving Iraq's deepening civil war will require urgent political change in Baghdad. But the military assistance that Iran and Russia are speeding to Shiite groups in Iraq imperils that change.

It now appears that a majority of Iraq's political parties and Shiite religious authorities blame Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's authoritarian tendencies and exclusion of mainstream Sunni groups for the crisis, and they seek his replacement as the starting point for resolving it.

But just as this political majority has begun to form against him, Iran and Russia have extended al-Maliki material and political support that insulates him from domestic political pressure and may even embolden him to try to stay on.

Iran now is in a position to direct Shiite militia mobilization and integration into Iraqi security operations and to shape Iraq's military and intelligence operations through Iran's Quds Force advisers. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's decisive action to provide attack aircraft, trainers and advisers further bolsters the Prime Minister's position.

Now, al-Maliki can argue that he has international backing to rid his country of this "terrorist" threat by any means necessary. In fact, al-Maliki still enjoys more domestic and international legitimacy than Syria's President, Bashar al-Assad, had when the Syrian civil war began three years ago.

Al-Maliki will surely amplify the significance of this weekend's purported public appearance of the notorious leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in Mosul to argue that the "Islamic caliphate" is a clear and present danger that supersedes the need to form a unity government. He will probably argue that only he can attack the caliphate threat as commander in chief and that it has to be done now, not after a protracted government formation process. He will also probably urge Iran to quiet Shiite opposition to his premiership so that he can perform the urgent work of commander in chief.

Already, the security and political situation is bleak, and unfortunately, the Prime Minister is in denial about his role in creating the Sunni Revolt and fostering the rise of the Caliphate, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham. After eight years in power, al-Maliki has not shown that he can distinguish between actual threats and imagined ones.

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His often-irrational fear of a Baathist return to power led him to employ an authoritarian sectarian agenda and to marginalize constructive but squabbling Sunni Arab political elites, all of which alienated the broader Sunni community and set the stage for ISIS gains.

An unconstrained al-Maliki seeks to crush Sunni Arab communities, which is what he wanted to do in 2007-2008. During the "surge" period of 2007-08, al-Maliki repeatedly asked for U.S. air power and artillery capabilities to pound Sunni neighborhoods (both of which he was denied) while vehemently protesting the use of precision munitions in Shiite militia-controlled areas.

When the International Zone received mortar fire from Sunni neighborhoods, the Baghdad Operations commander, Gen. Abud Qanbar, told coalition advisers that the Prime Minister wanted to teach the Sunni neighborhoods not to let terrorists launch mortars and rockets from their streets. These brutal tendencies are sure to come into the open again now that al-Maliki has the backing of Iran, Syria and Russia, all known for harsh tactics against civilian populations.

If al-Maliki can survive the next few weeks in power, he will probably feel free to take harsh measures against the Sunni Arab community, as he believes that he is free of U.S. constraints for the first time. Given his inclinations and fears, al-Maliki may think that he has great latitude to see most problems as nails to be dealt with by Shiite hammers and that he only has to stop short of al-Assad's atrocities and abuses -- the use of chemical weapons or 200,000 casualties -- if the Syrian experience is an indicator of what will be tolerated by the U.S. and the international community.

A defiant al-Maliki -- with the support of Iran, Syria and Russia and absent U.S. constraints -- will aggressively target Sunni Arabs, who in his view are active supporters of ISIS.

Unfortunately, al-Maliki's removal would not diminish the influence of Iran and Tehran's Shiite militias. Iran will continue to be the key determinant of Iraqi policy and politics for Iraq's Shiite parties and Shiite militias regardless of the prime minister. Iran is skilled in power politics and in asserting Iranian prerogatives. Iranian strategic goals depend on an acquiescent and accommodating Iraqi government. If Iran were to pressure al-Maliki to step down, he would surely be replaced by someone Iran could influence.

One name that is on any short list to replace al-Maliki is Tariq Najim Abdullah, an al-Maliki loyalist who as a member of his State of Law party could be expected to continue the sectarian approach to security issues and the marginalization of his political rivals, Sunni, Kurd and Shiite alike.

Regardless of who the next Shiite prime minister will be, the sectarian actors responsible for executing al-Maliki's heavy-handed tactics against the Sunni population in 2006-09 are now back in key positions. We have seen a return of the "worst of the worst," the very same actors the U.S. urged al-Maliki to remove and charge criminally before 2010.

Although many maligned sectarian actors were reassigned or promoted out of key positions in Baghdad to safe positions in southern Iraq, it seems these sectarian enforcers have returned to the fight, with the al-Maliki government's blessing.

Meanwhile, U.S influence and leverage with al-Maliki and other Shiite leaders is waning, if not altogether gone. It began to wane in 2010 when the U.S. ceded our leverage in favor of "smart power," believing that reasonable Iraqi minds would prevail. The U.S. treated Iraq as a sovereign government and did not interfere with al-Maliki's decisions to use the Accountability and Justice Law (PDF) to marginalize and remove political rivals, to politicize the Iraqi Security Forces by replacing effective commanders with al-Maliki loyalists, and to renege on his promises to integrate the Sunni Awakening movement -- the so-called Sons of Iraq -- into the ministries and security forces.

While the U.S. watched, the Iranians pressured al-Maliki not to sign the 2011 Status of Forces Agreement and backed his sectarian agenda of sidelining and arresting political rivals.

Iran's strategic goals and dominant position, orchestrated by Quds commander Qassem Soleimani, will ensure that any Iraqi prime minister responds to Tehran's core interests. Tehran's steadfast support for Syria's al-Assad shows al-Maliki the reliability and commitment of Iran to its clients.

We should view Iranian statements about an inclusive government with Sunni and Kurdish politicians as mere window dressing. The reality is that Tehran will not permit the steps necessary for fundamental constitutional reforms, power-sharing and checks on the Prime Minister's control over the security forces and intelligence apparatus. Tehran will see any such reforms as limits on Iranian influence, something the Iranians will not let happen.