Saturday, December 23, 2006

(image: Christoph Bangert for The New York Times. December 2006. Najaf. nytimes.com)

In a ceremony closed to the public, the US authorities handed over Najaf province (with a a population of approx 1 Mn Shia) to the Iraqi Government and Iraqi Army forces on Thursday.

Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Saad Fakhrildeen, of the LA Times reported the event at which the startled US handers - over , who were treated to a gesture of martial fealty uncommon to them but frequent in the time of Saddam Hussein.

As U.S. commanders and guests watched, the burly commandos in dark green T-shirts began taking bites out of live frogs.

One man knelt, placed a rabbit belly-up on his lap, and cut it open with his military knife. He screamed as he bit the rabbit's heart, then handed the carcass to his companions, who began gnawing away, blood flowing down their cheeks.

Maj. Gen. Kurt Cichowski, who attended the ceremony, told the Associated Press."Our soldiers do a lot of things, but I've never seen them do anything like that,"

Outside the uninvited families of dead Police officers mutely held pictures of their fathers and husbands, brothers.- Bag News

The day previously in Baghdad, police found 76 dead bodies, many had been shot, and some showed signs of torture, police said. Two suicide car bombings also killed at least 19 people in the capital.

Lord Patel met Senator Richard Lugar , Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations committe at Purdue this summer, whilst his immediate interest was to boondoggle for his home state Indiana's share of ethanol subsidies he made some trenchant remarks about energy security in the modern world.

He is a tough, shrewd, worldly wise politician who is now bowing out from centre stage. Following his summertime remarks in Purdue, he made a chracteristically blunt (but unremarked ) speech at the Marshall Fund conference in Riga, in Latvia in advance of the NATO summit. In the light of Turkmenbashis's death it is worth considering. Full text at US Embassy

NATO he points out is bigger, it is busier than ever. That is not a guarantee however of security in a global world - when NATO was originally forged to deal with the defence of Europe from the Warsaw Pact countries. He dwelt at some length on the role of NATO in Afghanistan ...

"Although the hunt for al-Qaeda terrorists continues, the primary threat to the stability of Afghanistan is Taliban insurgents who are challenging ISAF in greater numbers, sowing dissent among Afghanis, cooperating with the bourgeoning narcotics trade, and complicating security efforts in ways that inhibit the rule of law and reconstruction."

He pointed out that whatever the political will, action was dependent upon expenditure ..

"To overcome these challenges and similar ones, we must reverse the downward spiral of defense budgets. Only a handful of members spend more than 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Good intentions can only carry a military force so far ..."

He pointed out what many in the US see as the foot dragging of NATO nations ..

"It is imperative that NATO fulfills its commitments to Afghanistan. The Alliance has found it difficult to generate the political will to meet NATO objectives.....Unfortunately, NATO capitals are making the military mission even more difficult by placing national caveats on the use of their forces. These restrictions, coupled with troop shortages, are making ISAF a less cohesive and capable force."

He moved on and marked the " Centrality of Energy" to the NATO mission, to prevent wars and not fight them. He then outlined a key problem which a less than united Europe should consider..

" In the coming decades, the most likely source of armed conflict in the European theater and the surrounding regions will be energy scarcity and manipulation. It would be irresponsible for NATO to decline involvement in energy security, when it is abundantly apparent that the jobs, health, and security of our modern economies and societies depend on the sufficiency and timely availability of diverse energy resources."

" .... our experiences provide little reason to be confident that market rationality will be the governing force behind energy policy and transactions."

He then highlighted that we live in a much changed .. and rapidly changing world of energy flows.

"As recently as four years ago, spare production capacity exceeded world oil consumption by about ten percent. As world demand for oil has rapidly increased in the last few years, spare capacity has declined to two percent or less. Thus, even minor disruptions of oil supply can drive up prices."

He continued, to describe what he was to call geo-strategic blackmail.

"We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy could become the weapon of choice for those who possess it. It may seem to be a less lethal weapon than military force, but a natural gas shutdown to a European country in the middle of winter could cause death and economic loss on the scale of a military attack."

he then warmed to the core of his concerns, which affects NATO and their allies.

"We must move now to address our energy vulnerability. "

"Article Five of the NATO Charter identifies an attack on one member as an attack on all.....We should recognize that there is little ultimate difference between a member being forced to submit to foreign coercion because of an energy cutoff and a member facing a military blockade or other military demonstration on its borders."

Addressing the concerns about Rusia he called for dialogue ..

"I believe that Russia has a long-term interest in achieving a more prosperous stability that comes with greater investment in its energy sector and the development of a reputation as a trusted supplier. But its recent actions to temporarily reduce gas supplies to the West, confiscate some foreign energy investments, and create further barriers to new investment are undermining confidence in Moscow’s reliability. "

Remember ....this was before Gazprom successfully strong armed Shell over Sakhalin and Tblisi gave in on a new price for gas from next week.

He concluded ..

"I understand that adopting energy security as a mission is a major advancement from NATO’s origins. But it represents an historic opportunity to change the circumstances of geopolitics to the benefit of all members".

Meanwhile the first regiment of Topol-M mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) went on active duty in the Ivanovo region in central Russia this month and received a visit from President Vladimir Putin on 14 December 2006. He called the deployment a "significant step forward in improving our defense capabilities".(see exclusive pic)

"Maintaining a strategic balance will mean that our strategic deterrent forces should be able to guarantee the neutralization of any potential aggressor, no matter what modern weapon systems he possesses," Putin said.

The state-of-the-art mobile Topol-M ballistic missile, with a liftoff weight of 47.2 tonnes, a range of more than 10,000 kilometers and capability of carrying a 1,200-kilogram warhead, which is immune to electromagnetic impulses is a valuable reminder of the uncreasingly tough competition between the great powers for unimpeded access to raw materials, including energy resources.

On 15 December 2006 Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander or Russia's Strategic Missile Forces,said "We will begin to equip the Topol-M mobile missile system with multiple re-entry vehicles in a few years."

Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had a visitor to discuss gas supplies for winter this week. President Putin.

The fear factory have probably overdone the Fog kills Christmas for millions at Heathrow but a terror alert is way, way overdue.

Get ready.

Update 24/12/ 1900 GMT" Al-Qaeda sympathisers are being encouraged to attack targets in London over Christmas, according to reports on ABC television in America that claimed six “active” plots were being monitored. It added that “precursor chemicals” for bombs had been seized during raids. Scotland Yard declined to comment." Sunday Times

NEW YORK – Two 25-ton steel columns — one bearing signatures of steelworkers who helped make it — rose at ground zero Tuesday, a milestone in prolonged efforts to build the soaring skyscraper that will replace the twin towers of the World Trade Center.

Criticism of UK armed forces is mounting. It is present from within, from the newly appointed CGS, the pompous General Dannatt, who told the Daily Mail that the army was "running hot" . The deeply unpleasant hectoring ex CGS General Jackson who chose to direct his criticism from the safety of retirement, after presiding over waste and worse pay, and useless weaponry, has been swift in his much publicised BBC Dimblebore lecture to criticise his lords and masters at the MOD and the Treasury.

From the further reaches of the upholstered benches of the House of LordsField Marshal Lord Bramall of Bushfield in the County of Hampshire and Field Marshal Lord Inge of Richmond, both ex-chiefs of the defence staff, have been sounding off for a long time in debates in the House of Lords about the overstretched Armed Forces.

Even the Minister of Defence, Blustering Des Browne joined in this week admitting to the Times that UK troops are understaffed, and undertrained and need to be increased to meet even current deployments because there was too little time for training exercises.He noticeably missed out the bit about underpaid.

It is surprising therefore that the Independent on 12th December was the only paper to report the formation and launch of the The British Armed Forces Federation (BAFF), the new independent staff association for service personnel at the House of Commons (Website)

BAFF Chairman Douglas Young said at the press launch (Word Doc. here) thattwo of BAFF’s closest models are the Armed Forces Federation of Australia, and the Association of the United States Army and they had constituted themselves as a Company Limited by Guarantee on 30th October, 2006. Annual membership is open to anyone who is eligible, by current or past service in HM Armed Forces of the United Kingdom...although Friends may also join.

They want to provide collective representation (including lobbying and media relations); a private web forum as a means of sharing knowledge and advice; and a Personal Injury Claimline.

They point to the 1995 Bett Review team which stated :

“We have not been able to ignore a growing strength of feeling, apparent on our visits and in the responses to our survey, that the time may be approaching when some form of representation outside the chain of command may be required.

”In a survey carried out as part of the Review, 66% of Servicemen had agreed to some extent with a statement that the Services would benefit from an organisation providing representation outside the chain of command.

Visit their website http://www.baff.org.uk, read it, maybe even spring them a few quid. Only the Independent covered their launch . Lord Patel has a feeling in his water that you are going to read a lot more about the BAFF.

They have 3 current issues ;

These 3 things BAFF want to take up and "get sorted" are :

1. The backlog in the holding of inquests into the deaths of personnel repatriated through RAF Brize Norton.

2. Unacceptable and excessive charges to bereaved relatives for copies of papers supplied by MOD to the Coroner.

3. Disgraceful discrimination against personnel and their families who are in need of social housing on leaving the service.

Russian gas company Gazprom has said it will cut off gas supplies to Georgia from 1 January in an escalation of a long-standing price dispute.

Georgia has refused to accept Gazprom's demand for a doubling in its gas price to $230 per 1,000 cubic metres.

... and they haven't buried Turkmenbashi yet !

Lord Patel has been chronicling the growing stranglehold on European and ex CIS States see here

Tuesday, December 12George has Georgia on his mind and Vladimir standing on his toes Sunday, November 19Gazprom / LUKoil - Russian energy gets to grips with EuropeTuesday, June 6CIS states discuss defence and the UAE takes a look / Baku Defence MInisters meet from CIS

" ..... Gazprom [RTS: GAZP] signed three contracts Friday on supplies of 1.1 billion cubic meters of gas to Georgia in 2007 at $235 per 1,000 cubic meters, the head of Gazprom's export arm, Gazexport, said.

Alexander Medvedev said the contracts have been clinched with three companies on condition that 2006 supplies total 1.8 billion cubic meters, with two of them for supplies throughout 2007, and one for January-March, as Kavtransgaz-Tbilisi has confirmed supply volumes for just this period, and is likely to prolong its contract later."

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Measham is a pretty Midlands village with a defunct colliery and a huge car auction site near the brewing centre of Burton on Trent. It also housed a massive fuel laundering site which was run by three men who were sent to prison today for 13 1/2 years in total.

At Coventry Crown Court today, for their part in an illegal fuel-laundering scam, resulting in the evasion of over £2 million in excise duty and VAT . Damian Mulholland (39) of Beaver Crescent, Maghera, County Londonderry, got 6 years Brian Patrick O'Doherty (49) of Coventry, got 5 years and Jagdevpal Jandu Singh (41) Wolverhampton, got 2 1/2 years under the Customs & Excise Management Act 1979.

Diesel fuel and rebated fuel for use in agricultural machinery is coloured with red dye in the UK and green dye in the Republic of Ireland it must not be used in road vehicles. Dyed red diesel sells for 23p a litre while the clear white fuel sells at approx 87p per litre in the UK.

HM Revenue & Customs Officers (HMRC) in an undercover operation in 2005 showed how rebated oil (red diesel and kerosene) collected from a licensed distributor was laundered or mixed and then sold to the retail market as duty paid road diesel and ultra low sulphur diesel.

The fraud involved the laundering and distribution of over four million litres of fuel over an eight-month period.

In court the mechanics of the operation were disclosed in considerable detail.

The details of a bon fide company, Taz Construction were hi-jacked and used by O'Doherty to purchase , 34,000 litres of kerosene in several fuel tankers in August 2004, for which he paid cash.

This fuel was then sold using a bogus company called Mac Oil based in Manchester, operated by others involved in the fraud.

After observing the gang for some time the HMRC moved and a fuel mixing plant was dismantled and quantities of kerosene and green diesel were seized at premises in Lizard Lane, Tong Forge near Telford, Shropshire and also at a Measham, Swadlincote warehouse a fully operating oils laundering plant was dismantled.

O'Doherty was stopped by Police on the M6 driving a tanker containing 25,000 litres of illicit fuel. Fuel was also seized from the tanker's running tank.

Defrauding the revenue is not a victimless theft, in cases like this it usually involves widespread pollution by harmful chemicals, and often the funding of terrorist gangs and para-military organisations. If you buy the stuff ity can also fuck your engine up.

A 670-lb. meteorite landed @ Tashauz, in the Dashkhowus Velayatat in the Central Asian republic of Turkmenistan on June 20, 1998,happily, the 6th Anniversary of the election of President Saparmurat Niyazov Local scientists asked the head of state to name the celestial body Turkmenbashi.

66-year-old Saparmurat Niyazov now President for life has like the meteorite named after him fallen to earth. A sudden cardiac arrest stilled the father of the Nation announced the National TV.

No doubt his 5 million citizens will turn to the many vodkas made in his name to seek solace and fall like their father to Earth. Meanwhile the fight starts over the massive gas fields and their riches - the folks in Tblisi and Kiev will be looking over their shoulders and getting the extra blankets out.

Evidently our Dear Leader has lost even the last tenuous grasp on reality that he held. prior to his drive by, tour d'horizon of the Middle East this week ..... which it appears he might well have been confusing with Middle Earth.

He addressed the amused and oft bemused ladies of Zayed University in Dubai on his first official trip to the UAE . The Dear Leader was totally non - plussed when asked by one of these smart young ladies a very smart young question.... "was the West was planning yet another partition of Iraq along the lines of the Sykes Picot agreement."

The question had to be repeated and he still failed to understand the proposition or even begin to provide an answer.

Revealing the profound depth his ignorance of the region, it's history and the scars caused by the British Empire.

Perhaps it is as well no-one asked him about the way "Bomber" Harris perfected his aerial bombing techniques of civilians in Iraq - gas, delayed action fuses, incendaries to rip of the roofs followed by HE to kill the occupants etc.,

He was anxious to praise the commercial acheivements of Dubai - presumably refraining from the topic of UK VAT carousel fraud which saw UK "exports" to Dubai double in two months earlier this year whilst the Treasury leaks £400Mn a month (the cost of Afghanistan and Iraq combined) to fraudsters aided by the Dubai laissez faire attitude to international trade - see Lord Patel's postings ad nauseam.

Hey ... but it was a good photo opportunity - pretty girls, coloured girls, headscarves, Muslims, young, atractive, healthy, smiling girls, young ones, presses all the buttons ... er .. Mr Tony these pretty, smart young girls will never be able to vote.

Corporal Daniel James, 44, a military intelligence officer has been charged under section one (1) (C), of the Official Secrets Act 1911 - that on 2 November this year, for a purpose prejudicial to the safety of the state, he “communicated to another person information calculated to be directly or indirectly useful to the enemy”. (Check how many 44yr old Cpls in Army ?)

In his official capacity Mr James is an interpreter for Lieutenant General David Richards, (pic)(currently) the commander of the British contingent of Nato forces in Afghanistan. Danny J is apparently a skilled and fluent Pashtun Dari speaker and has Iranian family connections, possibly with Brighton in sunny Sussex by the Sea where his Farsi speaking mum lives and there is a lively club scene.

Senior District Judge (what used to be called Stipendary Magistrates) Timothy Workman at Westminster Magistrates Court, remanded him in custody until Wednesday December 27, he had been arrested on Tuesday after the court was cleared and proceedings were held in camera for 2 hours.

Wholly inaccurate diplomatic tittle - tattle claims that this is related to UK inspired surrender of Musa Qala to the Taliban earlier this year. (Update - Maj. Luke Knittig, U.S. Army / chief NATO spokesman in Kabul said "Musa Qala has proved to be a very good deal," said "After the agreement, there were 34 days of calm, which led us to believe the elders had made good on their word." However, he added: "We have our eyes closely on Musa Qala. If we see it being used as a launching pad for attacks, we will go back and address that.")

This resulted in allied squabbling (Update - relying on tribal elders to control the Taliban,) and the sacking of Mohammed Daud as governor of Helmand by President Karzai on 7th December, which was engineered by US forces - some claim the foul hand of the CIA was involved. Daud was instrumental in UK inspired surrender of Musa Qala to the Taliban which Richards was involved in - and some say Welsh Rentagob Howell was anxious to pursue, whilst newly installed GMILF Margaret Beckett (Described variously as Foreign Secretary) looked the other way... did her knitting, planned her next trip to Albi ....

This unseemly row amongst the allies led to the American supreme commander of Nato, General Jim Jones, letting it be known, that Lieutenant-General David Richards "would have been sacked if he had been an American officer". and that he was "too political".

Some claim James got caught as piggy in the middle.

Lord Patel's impeccable sources in Islamabad say nothing will happen and it will all be quietly forgotten as tempers die down. However other sources make a connection to the arrest of an employee of the Afghan Ministry of Defence on suspicion of espionage for the Pakistani secret service ISI, which has not been denied by President Karzai's office. (Pic Danny Boy in shadow of General Richards)

UPDATE 21/12/06 9.00amBBC peddling 3rd rate 3rd hand "official leaks" that this relates to Iran. Now saying James speaks Dari not Pashtun and re-iterating that information leaked to Iran claiming that this could be a "potential disaster" for NATO - BBC correspondent Gardner on BBC Radio 4 News / PM program "Iran has a highly developed network of informers in Afghanistan"

VERY interesting article Afghanistan close to anarchy, warns general by the well informed Richard Norton-Taylor Saturday July 22, 2006The Guradian concerning what General Richards told a conference at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.----------Anyone noticed that the Prime Minister took his old pal, tennis partner and midget Karaoke King of Brent, Lord Levy with him on his drive by, tour d'horizon of the Gulf but left his ace caravanner behind ? Minding the shop .. or told to mind her own business ?

On September 8th the first suicide bombers hit at US forces in Kabul, the following day Coca Cola opened their bottling plant in Kabul (see Lord Patel post here Sept 11th) it is clear that the NATO / US / UK alliance stated unravelling from that date. No wonder they don't want that all discussed in court in Westminster.

We must however make absoluteley certain that it is the fault entirely, completely, totally, 100% of Iran.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

British Nuclear Fuels sold Westinghouse the American based Nuclear power engineer to Toshiba (77% - US$4.16 Bn.) and the US based Shaw group (20% - US$1 Bn.) and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. purchased a 3 percent stake for US$162 million,earlier this year. This will give Toshiba nearly 30% of the world market.

Toshiba / Westinghouse have announced today they have sold 4 of their AP 1000 reactors to China in a US$8Bn. deal for installation by 2013 - two at Sanmen in Zhejiang province, with another two at Yangjiang in Guangdong.

Westinghouse said the deal will create or sustain roughly 5,000 design, engineering and manufacturing jobs in the US with additional jobs being created at US-based suppliers in at least 20 states. On top of this, AP 1000 technology has been selected for 12 projected plants in the US - which are still in the planning, regulatory approval stages.

The French company Arevaand Russia's Atomstroiexport were said to be in the bidding.

As part of the deal the US company will transfer technology to the Chinese enabling them to build their own plants eventually with up to a 50% Chinese content.

Areva are experiencing highly publicised problems with the Finnish EPR plant at Olkiluoto (pic) and even though they are one year behind schedule they claim that this, the first of the so called 3rd generation reactors scheduled for completion in about five and a half years. The EPR plant is based (like the AP 1000 on a pressurised water reactor but provides greater efficiencies in using Uranium oxide fuel slightly enriched with up to 5% U235, or a mixed uranium and plutonium oxiderecycled fuel (MOX).

Areva have had to make provisions to allow for the problems at Olkiluoto which they announced last week operating income for 2006 is expected to be sharply down from that of 2005, although it will easily remain well in the black. See Lord Patel's July 13th posting on UK construction capacity and the lessons of Olkiluoto.

Atomstroiexport is currently constructing the US$800 Mn. Iranian Bushehr nuclear power plant for the Iran's Atomic Energy Organization which has been recently re - scheduled to become operational by the second half of 2007. The contract was first placed in 1995

Atomstroiexport has a total of five plants under construction, Bushehr, 2 VVER-1000 reactors at Kudankulam in India . The Chinese Tianwan NPP, which uses 2 improved VVER-1000 reactors and K-100-6/3000 turbo-generators, under the terms of a Russian-Chinese agreement signed in 1992 was successfully tested at 75% load in October 2006.

At the same time they announced this milestone, they also announced that they had successfully tendered for Bulgaria's Belene plant , near the capital, Sofia, for the national Bulgarian National Electric Company (NEK) for two 1,000 MW reactors. The first plant will be operational by 2011 and the second by 2013.

Areva and Germany's Siemens will also be involved in the construction of these plants - Westinghouse and the Czech Republic's Skoda were underbidders on the project.

Meanwhile, having sold off Westinghouse, the people who make the decisions in the UK are twiddling their thumbs for the new Energy Review in the Spring (?) as gas reserves, oil production plummet, energy demand soars and unrealistic expectations are provided about renewable energy - as domestic energy costs soar and empty boasts are made about the EU ETS market - still staggering along at the lowest level ever of €6.65 per tonne.

My fellow Lord, Stevens of Whelpington, provided a remarkable, and it would appear accurate, detailed insight into the mind of the (what the News of the World was quick to christen) - The Suffolk Strangler.

In his article in Rupe's choice murder rag , Stevens, calling on his years of experience as " the country's top cop" says he, lives just half a mile from where he killed his first victim.

His home is probably within a mile of where he dumped her body too. He still lives there and has a carefully chosen bolthole, a "killing room" where he takes his victims to kill and keep at his pleasure.

He's a clean, relatively smartly dressed man in his 30s with a job and a good IQ, quite well thought of by those who know him, quite possibly married and he drives a presentable car or van .....

People who, behind an amiable facade, are concealing the deadliest rage and hatred — and it usually has little to do with sexual desire, and everything to do with finally asserting control over what they perceive as women humiliating them.

Which on the basis of progress so far looks remarkably prophetic - let's hope that he and the Suffolk police have resolved this truly awful case, and we can all go back to concealing and / or ignoring, the dreadful business of heroin crazed young girls, massage parlours, indifferent policing, pimps and "red light" districts strewn with worthless networks of CCTV cameras and their underpaid, vacuous guardians and operators.

Now having comprehensively debunked the theories of regal assassination last week, and identifying the Suffolk Strangler, my Lord and his team, have turned their attention to the far more important matter of the Football Association and the question of "agent's" bungs.

Quest, ***(website) "The Professional Intelligence Company" , Lord Stevens of Whelpington's corporate enquiry outfit, has examined ( at a modest cost of £750K) nearly 400 trasnfers under FA rules. No names, or deals will be identified but simply a list of recommendations on how the regulation of transfers can be improved to prevent bribery and corruption by cashmere coated, cigar chomping, players "agents".

The Premier League will claim sancta simplicissimus and My Lord will beg for more time and money, (if his Lady Di enquiry is anything to go on) and claim more boodle than most dodgy deals yield.

The FA's chief executive Brian Barwick was quick to get their defence in first yesterday and declared in jaw jutting style, the governing body's determination to get tough ... er ... in future.

"What I would like to say is that I have great confidence in our own compliance unit. We are putting more people and more investment into it in 2007 and this is a compliance unit that occasionally comes under the focus and under the spotlight and comes in for some undeserved criticism.

"Next year we will introduce new agents' regulations, new doping regulations, and our fast-track disciplinary and fit and proper person's tests seem to be working out very well.

"So we will take great interest in the Lord Stevens inquiry. We have helped with it, and if there's any help needed going forward we will be part of that as well. We not only have the people, we are going to get more people."

Which was said to a chorus of stable doors being banged shut by the assembled Premiership Chairmen.

Many will remember Lord Stevens retired from the Met in January 2005 and 3 months later joined the board of LGC Holdings "the UK's leading independent provider of analytical and diagnostic services, LGC offers chemical, biochemical and forensic analysis, DNA testing and genetic screening, research, method validation, consultancy and analytical outsourcing.

Ever anxious to spread the joys of civilisation and wonders of technology, Lord Patel was tempted by the novel packaging and promise offered by a new Ryvita whole grain (low Gi) crispbread that contains "Pumpkin seeds and Oats" - a "scrumptious snack" says their website - a source of bone and teeth building phosphorus.

Snacking yesterday with some Tesco's Finest "Old Matured take the roof off yer Mouth" Farmhouse Cheddar, he has to say that the crumbly nuttiness, the rustic flakiness provides a taste sensation. Highly recommended.

Ever anxious to please, my domestic staff provided a small quantity of mildly salted, crunchy red pumpkin seeds from Syria which Asma Assad (Emma as she likes to be known by friends) introduced me too.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

As the US military effort concentrates on force protection and retreats into Baghdad and the Green Zone, externally supplied electricity is being denied as power lines and transmission towers, are destroyed, and even removed as scrap metal.

Karim Wahid Hasan, is the Iraqi electricity minister and tells the NYT "Now Baghdad is almost isolated, we almost don't have any power coming from outside."

He said of the nine lines feeding Baghdad , seven were out of action last week and that the capital's ageing power plants are struggling and the city is getting only 6-7 hours per day electricity mains supply, the rest of the country is said to be averaging some 9 hours per day.

Geostrategy - Direct claims that the Iranian-sponsored Mahdi army has grown over 2 years. Funded by millions of dollars as well as shipments of weapons from Iran it has grown from 10,000 to more than 300,000 fighters after a massive recruitment effort this year.

When Karim Wahid Hasan, visited Washington to meet U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman after his visit to Baghdad in July, they both signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity to formalise the increased bilateral cooperation between the two nations in the areas of energy analysis, science, technology, and energy awareness and education - great co-operation but no 'lecky for Sadr City. Pic. Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh, left, discusses future energy plans for Iraq with U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman in Baghdad July 19th.

More importantly Bodman of course also met the Iraqi Minister of Oil, al-Shahristani travelling with Karim Wahid Hasan and he took the opportunity to ;

" ...stress the importance of developing and implementing a national hydrocarbon law, which will allow much needed foreign investment in the oil and natural gas sector of their economy and ensure Iraq’s natural resources are used for the benefit of all the Iraqi people. In addition, at Minister al-Shahristani’s request, Secretary Bodman convened a meeting of oil sector leaders (nine major oil companies — including Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips) to discuss how the private sector can help Iraq develop its energy infrastructure and the role of a national hydrocarbon law in Iraq. During their meeting the business leaders discussed infrastructure rehabilitation and expansion opportunities, technology and technical capabilities, and the need for transparent and consistent laws and guidelines that will allow investment to flourish."

Which is US Department Of Energy speak for Maliki and pals to use the new, US inspired constitution of 2005, to guarantee a major role for foreign companies under the guise of Production Sharing Agreements (PSA's by which US oil majors have systematically raped countries throughout the world) to give US oilcos control over dozens of fields, including the fabled super-giant Majnoon field. (As planned in the State Department,"Oil and Energy Working Group" document of April 2002, policy-development initiative "The Future of Iraq".) Antonia Juhasz ( visiting scholar - Institute for Policy Studies, author of "The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time." )has a stunningly well argued piece in the LA Times 8/12/06 on how Baker's Rock Steady Crew argue for hastening up this policy - Recommendation - No 63

"the U.S. to assist Iraqi leaders to reorganize the national oil industry as a commercial enterprise" and to "encourage investment in Iraq's oil sector by the international community and by international energy companies."

Recommendation No. 26 of the Rock Steady Crew calls for a review of the constitution to be "pursued on an urgent basis." Recommendation No. 28 calls for putting control of Iraq's oil revenues in the hands of the central government.

What really pisses off everyone (especially Bodman who is failing to deliver what the oilcos want) is that the (otherwise engaged) current Iraqi government has not passed a national oil law. Nor do Iraqis want them to and they want continued control by a national company. The powerful and determined oil workers union also resolutely oppose de-nationalization. (and the piratisation privatisation of their national assets).

Meanwhile everyone waits in the fitful dark for Mr Gates to visit in the wake of Our Dear Leader and prepare Plan "B" which has already picked up the military handle..."The Surge" - do we send 30 or 40,000 more troops ?

The horrible truth, slowly dawning in London on the casualists of Chatham House and the soft centred idealists now at the centre of Conservative affairs is thatBuh and his gang of shadowy, nasty, mercenary cheerleaders has got us all into a very dark place.

Their brutal agenda of commercial greed, have dealt a fateful legacy - peddled on the back of an illusion of the home grown myths of military excellence and endeavour, supported by compliant, spineless, media circus determined to ignore the stark reality on the ground and anxious to retreat into and fob off the children with a fantasy land that requires just one last final heave.

Maybe the whole despicable lie will be revealed in the ill lit streets of Baghdad and a hundred Iraqi towns and cities, as the oppressors and occupiers are turned on in a final earth shattering, murderous assault.

Perhaps a final Press Release from the Foreign Office will float to rest on the mess of bloodied corpses bearing, as epitaph, the thoughful words of (GMILF ?)Margaret Beckett...

"This paper is threadbare, insubstantial and just plain wrong. Chatham House has established a great reputation over the years, but this paper will do nothing to enhance it."

Pic(Reuters) shows the Shiite Mahdi Army parading (and tramping on US / Union jack flags) on the anniversary of the death of Mohammad Baqr al Sadar, the father of cleric Moqtada al Sadr, in Basra on Nov. 28 2006.

Gazprom has announced a deal with Gaz de France today to supply French domestic users directly from next July with 1.5BN cubic metres of gas a year , this is part of a larger deal agreed to extend a long-term supply contract from 2012 to 2030, under which GdF will buy 12 Bn. cubic metres of gas per year. In another announcement LUKoil have taken over from Philips Conoco 376 petrol stations across western Europe - Conoco Philips are majpor shareholders (17.9%) in LUKoil..

EU debutante, Bulgaria agreed a Gazprom deal (very reluctantly) on Monday, that means Bulgarians will pay up to 45% more for its gas imports over the next five years. Initially prices will rise 20% by the middle of next year and increase further by 2012.

In Belarus, talks are stalled as Putin (who met President Lukashenko on Friday) insists on re-pricing gas from US$50 per to US$200 if agreement cannot be made on Gazprom buying up the Belarussian pipeline and distribution networks for US$4Bn - which Lukashenko cliams is worth 4 times that.

Bigger deals have however been cooking - the Shtokman gas field was discovered in 1988 to the east of Murmansk 555km from land, in 350m of water that sees 1 million ton ucebergs drifting at up to 0.25m/s, and 1.2m drift ice moving at up to 1m/s.

Development costs of an estimated US$20BN involved 4 main platforms with a staggering four 42in x 565 Km pipelines to be laid to onshore facilities at Teriberka, 565km away. From here it will progress via ten pumping stations to Vyborg on the Baltic. Gazprom hopes to put Shtokman on stream as early as 2010.

The licensee is Sevmorneftegaz, jointly owned by Russian state owned Rosneft and state controlled Gazprom . In late 2004 and early 2005, preliminary agreements (as part of a so called beauty parade) were signed with ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Statoil and Norsk Hydro. At this stage there were plans for export of LNG to the US but this has been shelved for the moment and most of the gas is destined for Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline from Vyborg on the Baltic to Greifswald in Germany.

This pipeline is a joint project of Nord Stream AG, jointly owned by Gazprom (51% ), German BASF and E.ON (both 24.5%). Ex Chancellor gerhard Schroeder is the chairman and was instrumental in developing the pipeline with President Putin whilst Chancellor. N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie now also have a shareholding , after taking 9% as a direct exchange for the 9% of shares in the BBL Company - Bacton / Balgzand pipeline on October 9th 2006.

Simultaneously in October Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller , in a move that emphasised Moscow's efforts to consolidate ownership of Russia's oil and gas resources by state-controlled energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft said,"The foreign companies could not offer assets that compare to the volume and quality of Shtokman's reserves," (Ho.Ho.)and announced they would develop the field alone.

It is against this backdrop that the massive merger of Norway's - Statoil and Norsk Hydro's oil and gas interests by a share swap, announced today must be judged.

This new (and as yet un-named company) will jointly produce 1.9 million barrels of oil per day, and its oil and gas reserves should be in the region of 6.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

In a small but significant announcement for the UK Statoil and Norsk Hydro have detailed plans for developing the oil reserves in the North Sea Gjoa fields, which are said to be 60 million barrels, which will be piped to a connection in the Troll II trunkline to Norway’s Mongstad refinery. The field’s 35 billion cubic metres of gas will be exported via the Flags pipeline to St Fergus, Scotland to augment UK gas supplies.

Drilling will commence spring 2009, with production is scheduled for 2010, at which time Gaz de France will take over operations from Statoil and expect to reach 50,000 barrels per day. Production from Gjoa is expected to last until 2020-2025, though additional adjacent fields may be susceptibel to further development.

Unlike the UK where oil and gas revenues have been sadly pissed up against the wall by successive Chancellors (not least the latest) Norway have since 1966 been prudently squirreling away reserves in the State run Government Pension Fund - which has grown to NOK 1.71 trillion (US$ 266 billion); equivalent to pensions savings of some 300,000 NOK (US$48K £26K) for every man, woman and child in Norway (4.6 Mn at last count).

The joint company will employ 58,000 in over 40 countries, with revenues of over US$90Bn. It is expected that the merger will be completed in second half of 2007. Mr Lund of Statoil is destined to become the chief executive of the new company, while Hydro's chief executive, Eivind Reiten, will become chairman - he will also remain as CEO of Norsk Hydro's aluminium smelting interests.

Morgan Stanley advised Statoil, Goldman Sachs advised Hydro, and Lehman Brothers advised the Norwegian government who will no doubt all be carrying home large bags of money after arranging the 3rd biggest oil merger deal this decade.

It migth be noticed that the winners in this are the Dutch / Norwegian / German / companies and citizens. The possible losers are the US through less control over Arctic LNG supplies - cf Sakhalin where Shell have formally announced being shafted by Gazprom today.

We now wait for the move on Centrica - as the wholly fucking Blairite foreign policy displays the underbelly of the state and the rampant financiers (yet again the London end of US based gangs) waltz off with the loot ...... and fuck the UK citizen.

Jonathan lives in Nazareth and provides an excellent, unique, literate, independent view of events in Israel and the immediate region.

He examines the knee jerk belief, peddled assiduously by the Westerm media that all Hamas has to do is say "We recognise Israel" and supposedly aid and international goodwill will wash over the West Bank and Gaza.

This he points out is a simplistic trap set by the Zionists who subtly use the phrase " Israel's Right to exist" which is, he points out and elaborates, merely the public face of strident apartheid - no less ugly than that of the Boers and Voortrekkers.

The apparent need to, "recognise Israel " which is seen as a synonym or direct equivalent of the Zionists clarion cry for a "Right for Israel to exist", is a seductive argument persistently aired in the Press. It is represented by people like Blair (as he did today in Tel Aviv accompanied by his even handed jewish Middle east expert, and party financier Lord Levy) that the Palestinians' problems started with the election of Hamas - which Abbas now wants to overthrow with another (and illegal) election - a policy supported by Blair, Bush and their cheerleaders.

"The concept of a state having any rights is not only strange but alien to international law. People have rights, not states. And that is precisely the point: when Israel demands that its "right to exist" be recognised, the subtext is that we are not speaking of recognition of Israel as a normal nation state but as the state of a specific people, the Jews.

In demanding recognition of its right to exist, Israel is ensuring that the Palestinians agree to Israel's character being set in stone as an exclusivist Jewish state, one that privileges the rights of Jews over all other ethnic, religious and national groups inside the same territory. The question of what such a state entails is largely glossed over both by Israel and the West."

He also points out that the apparent concern over Iran's nuclear weapons is not military it is social and political. Once the Jews realise that it is unsafe to live in Israel they will emigrate, westwards, to the US, to leave a rump of true believers to be finally overwhelmed.

"Last month, Ephraim Sneh, one of Israel's most distinguished generals and now Olmert's deputy defence minister, revealed that the government's primary concern was not the threat posed by Ahmadinejad firing nuclear missiles at Israel but the effect of Iran's possession of such weapons on Jews who expect Israel to have a monopoly on the nuclear threat.

If Iran got such weapons, "Most Israelis would prefer not to live here; most Jews would prefer not to come here with families, and Israelis who can live abroad will ... I am afraid Ahmadinejad will be able to kill the Zionist dream without pushing a button. That's why we must prevent this regime from obtaining nuclear capability at all costs."

Jonathan concludes that

In other words, the Israeli government is considering either its own pre-emptive strike on Iran or encouraging the United States to undertake such an attack -- despite the terrible consequences for global security -- simply because a nuclear-armed Iran might make Israel a less attractive place for Jews to live, lead to increased emigration and tip the demographic balance in the Palestinians' favour.

Van Duc Vo (aka Nguyen Nha Trang) a US citizen who was born in Vietnam and said to be a member of a California-based terrorist group known as Government of Free Vietnam was quietly removed from a prison in Los Angeles on December 1 and flown to Thailand on Thursday after Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice signed an extradition order.

Vo, a US citizen, who came to the US in 1978, was arrested in October 2001 by the FBI at California's John Wayne Airport after returning from a trip to Bangkok. The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry claim he was the ringleader of a plot to bomb the Vietnamese embassy in Bamgkok, Thailand. Two alleged accomplices Pham Nguyen Thanh Hien Si, (Tony) Anh Tuan Tran, and (Philip) Phan Thanh Binh were arrested at the time and are awaiting trial.

He is alleged to have placed a backpack full of explosives in front of the Vietnamese embassy and tossing a bomb over the compound's fence.

The bombs, weighing 6.6 pounds and 11 pounds, were supposed to be detonated by cell phones but failed to explode, according to Thai authorities, who charged Vo with "conspiring to use and using weapons of mass destruction during an attempted bombing."

Vo graduated as a civil engineer from California State University and helped form the Government of Free Vietnam an anti-communist Government in exile, in April 1985 with Mr. Chanh Huu Nguyen.

Readers will remember that President Bush was in Vietnam in November 18/19th for the 14th Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit (who will forget Bush & Putin in their nightshirts ?) . (See White House Video Bush meets US Vietnamese businessmen who want to do trade with Vietnam at Hanoi Stock Exchange 20/11/06) A Trade Bill had just been stalled by a vote on November 13th in advance of this summit (and the elections) granting permanent normal trade relations status to Vietnam, which has Asia's second-fastest growing economy after China. If approved, U.S. companies would benefit from lower tariffs after Vietnam joins the WTO at year-end, facilitating exports to a nation of 84 million people with a fast-growing middle class but it would hit Republican textile area constituencies in the South.

However on 7th December in the last gasp of the Republican-led 109th Congress, HR 6346, a package including "Permanent Normal Trade Relation" (PNTR) status for Vietnam, a trade preferences extension for Haiti and a duty reductions renewal for 4 Andean nations that have signed bilateral trade deals with the U.S. and over 100 developing countries was passed by 212 to 184 in the House.

The bill includes two main sections. The first one mentions grounds for granting PNTR for Vietnam, such as Bill Clinton's decision on normalization of relations with Vietnam, the bilateral agreement of May 2006, progress and commitments made by Vietnam during recent years, as well as the nation's cooperation on the POW/MIA issue. The second section calls for ending Article 4 of the Jackson-Vanik 1974 Trade Law (which required annual reviews of Vietnamese relations / trade). It also deals with bilateral trade concerns such as government subsidy, textile quota and so on. Vietnam will become a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Dec. 28.

For many years the US refused extradition of IRA terrorist suspectson the basis of legislation passed in 1972. A US / UK extradition Treaty was forced through which has allowed the famous Nat West 3 who were involved with Enron and have been extradited.

Less well known is the case of Jeremy Crook, a former European VP of US software company Peregrine Systems, was extradited to the US in September 2006 after being indicted by a US Grand Jury on fraud charges relating to alleged accounting irregularities at Peregrine.

Crook left the company in 2001 and was until recently running his own company, but was forced to surrender to US authorities under the UK's controversial extradition treaty with the US. The treaty allows the US to request the extradition of suspects without presenting any of the prosecution evidence in a court first.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

On Monday 18th December Dame Pauline Neville-Jones (spook) and David Cameron MP will be giving a presentation on the Conservative National and International Security Policy Group’s mid term report on security-related issues in foreign and domestic policy.

The event will start at 12.30 pm and should last for no more than an hour.

See the "Our Security Challenge" website ..."The National and International Security Policy Group will examine all aspects of the UK's national security, both domestic and international. The group was set up by David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party, and our recommendtions are intended to influence the course of the future Conservative policy." Where you may read ....

Speech by David Cameron MP at the annual JP Morgan lecture, British American Project - inter alia

THE CURRENT RESPONSE

Broadly, the response can be summarised as ‘neo conservatism.’ For the purposes of my argument today, we can focus on three propositions that are most commonly understood to represent the core of neo-conservative thinking.

First, a realistic appreciation of the scale of the threat the world faces from terrorism.

Second, a conviction that pre-emptive military action is not only an appropriate, but a necessary component of tackling the terrorist threat in the short term.

And third, a belief that in the medium and long term, the promotion of freedom and democracy, including through regime change, is the best guarantee of our security.

Which sounds an awful lot like "Business as usual". He did however manage to identify one simple, if self evident Truth

"the way we have tried to meet these challenges over the past 5 years has had an unintended (?) and worrying consequence.

It has fanned the flames of anti-Americanism, both here in Britain and around the world."

Which whilst it may not have been intended, it WAS forseeable .. and foreseen.

"

Counting the cost... eventually

The course is charted, arrogant use of the military is all the US ruling class has to maintain its dominance. After Iraq, asymmetric warfare, "terrorism," will be directed at Americans, American institutions, American targets, and American allies. When the rest of the world recognizes how thinly spread the US military is, thinly spread physically, and economically, because it is not a sustainable institution in its current incarnation, rebellions will occur. Indeed they have already started. The response of the weakening US will be to lash out, often with unforeseeable consequences, just as the consequences of this impending invasion are unforeseeable, and unknown.

...Military might is a sign of strength, but the US military is not invincible worldwide. America's use of force as both first and last resort is a sign of profound systemic weakness. Its employment today will destabilize the world, and cause us to stumble into a Third World War: The War of Unintended Consequences.

The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, national institution established and funded by Congress which most people had never heard of before the report by the Iraq Study Group - better known as the Baker report.

A meeting organised by the Afghan group on "November 8th was led Beth Ellen Cole, coordinator of the Afghanistan Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace and by featured presentations by Hekmat Karzai, director of the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies in Kabul, Afghanistan; Peter Bergen, author of the best selling book Holy War Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden; and Seth Jones, a senior political scientist and expert on the insurgency at the RAND Corporation.

Seth Jones identified several anti - US forces and their objectives ;

The resurgent and apparently well financed Taliban , allies of the West against the Russians, now dominate the struggle, with their message to Afghanis of "the clash of civilizations" as the forces of Islam wage war for control against the "anti Muslim" United States it's Western allies in NATO.

The Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) is determined on installing its leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, as the ruler of Afghanistan. A 3 minute video surfaced on December 12th (similiar to one in Jan 2006 just prior to Eid) in which Hekmatyr claimed that the failures of the US in Afghanistan had caused the democrat victories in the mid term elections and claimed , "Very soon we will see that, God willing, American troops will leave Afghanistan and Iraq with their heads bowed down,”

"His forces were a main beneficiary of the 7 mujahideen groups recognised by Pakistan and US intelligence agencies for the channelling of money and arms during the 1979-89 war. Among those arms were Stinger surface-to-air missiles.....On February 19, 2003 American tolerance snapped and the US DOS designated Gulbuddin Hekmatyar as a Terrorist."

As the article prophetically said after a meeting at Mazur al Sharif in November 2004 of Hekmatyr and his pals...

"Watch this space for an announcement about troop movements from the Scotsman John Reid AKA Minister of Defence – augmenting NATO forces (now approx 500) – beefing up the response – sharing the burden – spreading the load – part of a widening response in the War on Terror – blah blah … pulling US chestnuts out of the fire – re-run history reel .. Terrorist aided by US bites the hand that feeds … Osama ? Hekmatyar ?"

For regular postings by Lord Patel on the advance of Hekmatyr and his forces in Afghanistan simply enter "Gulbuddin Hekmatyar" in the top left search box. ditto Reid, Afghanistan

Al Qaeda's foreign fighters supported by Tribal groups on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and other allied groups seek broader objectives, including complete U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East.

Criminal gangs are using the chaoscaused by the insurgency and the freedom to operate the production of poppies, heroin base and increasingly pure heroin which winds it's way to the streets of Europe.

These forces operate both independently but also jointly in a confused brew of tribal, religious, criminal and regional cliques - opaque to the military mind and US and NATO forces.Getting the Muslim's message across

Hekmit Karzai identified the increasing sophistication of the message and its transmission and promotion. The Taliban, whilst in theory espousing the modern world has readily adopted media campaigns using DVDs and websites.he Taliban have developed a video production arm equivalent to Al Qaeda's video production center, As-Sahab, which has turned out dozens of statements by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri this year. Although distinguishing them from the products of the CIA is impossible.

Suicide terrorism

Suicide terorism , an import from Iraq has grown, and Karzai's Center has documented 83 this year, compared with 21 in 2005 and only one in 2001/2002. There were 21 in September 2006 alone. Whilst there have been successes against military forces the majority of victims are said to be Afghan civilians.

A major loyal jirga is planned for January which it is hoped will draw hundreds of Afghans and Pakistanis from the state parliaments, civil society, and tribes on both sides of the border. Both Presidents Mushariff and Karzai are scheduled to attend and the UN is supposed to monitor the event. Don't hold your breath.

Meanwhile US and NATO forces die, the poppies grow unhindered, as do the drug cargoes which finally end up being pumped into the tired limbs of young whores in Ipswich .... near the major ports of Felixstowe and Harwich, apparently @ £15 a baggie the 2nd cheapest source of heroin in the UK.

The improbably named Lembit Opek who forecast that an asteroid would wipe out Life on Earth as we know it this year* , famous supporter of hopeless drunk Charlie Kennedy, coprophiliac Mark Oaten, homesexualist Simon Hughes and lover of the beautiful weathergirl(?) Sian Lloyd has fallen for Gabriela, one of the Cheeky girls.(pic)

Liberal Democrats - Prepare for Government!

* Guradian 29/9/04 "Hollywood likes to blow asteroids apart 24 hours before they hit the earth. This doesn't work in reality."