South Carolina 1st District primary: Five things to watch

The dramatic South Carolina special congressional primary election has turned into a battle for who will face disgraced former Gov. Mark Sanford in a GOP runoff on April 2.

With Sanford all but certain to finish first but unlikely to clear the 50 percent bar needed to avoid the runoff, the fight is for the No. 2 spot. Among the more than dozen Republican candidates competing for the slot are state Rep. Chip Limehouse, former Charleston City Councilman Curtis Bostic and Teddy Turner, the son of media mogul Ted Turner. Also in the running are former state Sen. John Kuhn and state Sen. Larry Grooms.

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Mark Sanford: 'We all hope for redemption'

Whoever wins the GOP nod is expected to face Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, sister of comedian Stephen Colbert, in the May general election. The race is to replace Republican Tim Scott, who vacated the seat when he was appointed to the Senate.

Here are POLITICO’s five things to watch in the primary election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, where polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

Sanford’s digit

On the ballot for the first time since he lied about and then admitted to an extramarital affair in 2009, Sanford is practically guaranteed a spot in the runoff. But how well the former governor performs will speak volumes about his political strength — and how likely he is to survive the runoff.

After the race is called, Sanford’s runoff opponent will immediately take steps to consolidate anti-Sanford votes. But if Sanford finishes with 35 percent or more, observers say, it will be tough to prevent him from winning a majority in the April 2, Republican runoff.

Anything less than 35 percent, though, and odds are Sanford is in for a two-week dogfight. Until now, Sanford has sought to stay above the fray — letting his opponents duke it out for a spot in the runoff. But a weaker-than-expected performance from the former governor will mean he’ll be forced to take the gloves off.

“If he’s not sitting in the high 30s or low 40s, he’s got a huge problem,” said Katon Dawson, a former South Carolina Republican Party chairman.

The Lowcountry’s upper crust

Limehouse and Turner are fighting over the same bloc of prospective supporters — the wealthy voters who dot the Charleston and Hilton Head areas. How those voters break could decide who makes the runoff.

Limehouse, the scion of a prominent South Carolina political family, has poured more than $600,000 of his own money in the race — much of it on a last-minute assault on Turner, whom the Limehouse forces have tried to brand as a failed businessman.