“The ability to determine this type of information is extremely valuable
to policy-makers, pharmaceutical companies, and investment firms because
it enables more informed insights and decision-making through predictive
modeling and analytics on the lifecycle of a drug”

“The ability to determine this type of information is extremely valuable
to policy-makers, pharmaceutical companies, and investment firms because
it enables more informed insights and decision-making through predictive
modeling and analytics on the lifecycle of a drug,” says Mohan
Purushothaman, executive vice president, ALSCG. “As a result of our
pricing, contracting and market access capabilities, ALSCG is able to
offer this level of deep modeling within pharma commercial operations.”

To perform predictions, ALSCG applied Cox Proportional Hazard Models --
a class of survival models in statistics -- to a set of oncology drugs
in the US. Survival models relate the time that passes before an event
occurs to one or more variables that may be associated with it. In this
case, ALSCG observed the events leading up to a price change in order to
predict the timing and percentage of that change.

“This model showed that for each additional month since FDA approval,
the ‘risk’ of a price raise increased by 0.7 percent,” Purushothaman
adds. “Similarly, there was a second order effect showing this risk
diminishing over time. This kind of deep modeling capability can
significantly benefit the Life Sciences industry in terms of forecasting
price change.”

About ALSCGFormed in 1994 and headquartered in Somerset,
N.J., Alliance Life Sciences Consulting Group employs hundreds of
professionals worldwide who collectively understand the business
challenges of the Life Sciences industry and offer solutions around
Contracting & Market Access, Information Management & Commercial
Analytics, Clinical Operations, and Mobile Applications. ALSCG has
experience with seven of the top-10 largest pharmaceutical
manufacturers, and mid-market Life Sciences firms. Alliance provides
better insights for better decisions.Contact: 866-581-4850 www.alscg.com