Losing Weight, Losing Money

DON’T EAT

Saves time, saves money, good for your health, good for the planet. (It takes 2,500 gallons of water and three-quarters of a gallon of oil to make a pound of hamburger.) And we don’t treat the cows and chickens all that well either.

Now comes this (very preliminary) finding — “fasting triggers stem cell regeneration of damaged, old immune system.”It is of immediate interest only if you are undergoing chemotherapy. And you are a mouse. But I’m telling you: Except mostly for fresh fruit and vegetables, plus nuts and quinoa (I know: keen-WHA????) — and whatever nutrition there may be in Dentyne Ice to keep your breath minty fresh — don’t eat!

GET A LOAD O’ THIS FARMER

ETRM

It’s almost show time for this weight loss device and I’m losing some of my nerve. Guru thinks it’s a slam dunk to be approved but is no longer talking about $10 or $20 as the upside. There is a huge element of “who knows?” in any of these things . . . and there are an awful lot of people — like us — waiting to unload our shares at a huge profit when approval is granted. Which would create a lot of headwind for the stock, at least short term. That’s if it goes well. I have another really smart friend who thinks, yes, it may get approved, because it seems safe, but even if it does — and it may not — it will get trashed by the scientists evaluating it, and he’s short the stock. So with ETRM having nearly doubled since it was first suggested here, I sold a good chunk yesterday. If it does double or triple — peachy. But I no longer see this as “heads, you win $5 or $10, tails you lose 90 cents,” but more like “heads, you win maybe $2 from here, tails you lose $1.50.” The truth is (as if it weren’t obvious), I have no idea what will happen or how the stock market — or obese patients and their health care providers — will react.

MONT

It looks as though the Chinese are going to go through with their acquisition of this deeply flawed company after all. If so, our puts will expire worthless, even if someday it turns out we were right — and even if it turns out the Chinese decision makers had “misaligned personal incentives” (shall we say) to make this deal. I’m holding my now nearly worthless puts, because “you never know.” But this would appear to be one of the speculations it’s a good thing we made with money we could truly afford to lose.