Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

LNK_Weather

Posted 10 July 2018 - 10:34 AM

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I'm seeing a lot of general Fall/Winter discussion happening in the ENSO thread, so I figured we are about due for this seeing as we are only 1.5 months away from met Fall, and I know Fall-like weather can sometimes begin as early as August. And according to Euro weeklies, we could start seeing some of that. Discuss.

Tom

Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:39 AM

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I'm seeing a lot of general Fall/Winter discussion happening in the ENSO thread, so I figured we are about due for this seeing as we are only 1.5 months away from met Fall, and I know Fall-like weather can sometimes begin as early as August. And according to Euro weeklies, we could start seeing some of that. Discuss.

Thanks Lincoln. I was planning on using the ENSO thread to include the Autumn/Winter discussions for another week or two, but since you fired one up, let's roll with it. If you don't mind, can I edit the title to include the winter component?

LNK_Weather

Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:53 AM

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Thanks Lincoln. I was planning on using the ENSO thread to include the Autumn/Winter discussions for another week or two, but since you fired one up, let's roll with it. If you don't mind, can I edit the title to include the winter component?

Tom

Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:40 AM

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The latest QBO reading for the month of June continues the decline down to -28.45 compared to last months reading of -24.23. Good signs for high latitude blocking into the cold season. I just did a quick check and since 1948, there has been no data indicating a index value this low for the month of June. The closest years were 2012 (-25.89) and 2010 (-25.05).

Tom

Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:48 AM

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What is the ECMWF showing for this Autumn and into the 1st half of Winter??? Certainly showcasing an El Nino look with the continuation of a very wet pattern across the SW/4 corners and into Cali throughout the Autumn.

Pocket of AN temps across the MW/Plains and near avg down in the southern Plains...NE Canada continues to remain in the deep freezer. This, to me, suggests another season of the Polar Vortex being a dominant player this season.

By the time we head deeper into the Autumn, the model is seeing the EC ridging (might be to strong) which covers the MW/GL's region.

There is a signal of plenty of early season cutters??? Lots of precip continues in the west/southwest and as the jet strengthens, it suggests a wetter signal across the App's/GL's. SE ridge may be the real deal early on in the season.

The nation turns colder as winter progresses....

In terms of precip, nearly carbon copy for the 1st half of winter....looks fun and wild...

OKwx2k4

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:24 PM

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What is the ECMWF showing for this Autumn and into the 1st half of Winter??? Certainly showcasing an El Nino look with the continuation of a very wet pattern across the SW/4 corners and into Cali throughout the Autumn.

Pocket of AN temps across the MW/Plains and near avg down in the southern Plains...NE Canada continues to remain in the deep freezer. This, to me, suggests another season of the Polar Vortex being a dominant player this season.

By the time we head deeper into the Autumn, the model is seeing the EC ridging (might be to strong) which covers the MW/GL's region.

There is a signal of plenty of early season cutters??? Lots of precip continues in the west/southwest and as the jet strengthens, it suggests a wetter signal across the App's/GL's. SE ridge may be the real deal early on in the season.

The nation turns colder as winter progresses....

In terms of precip, nearly carbon copy for the 1st half of winter....looks fun and wild...

Looks like a beautiful last 1/3 of the year being drawn up by the Euro. Especially if normal on there equals cold, which it usually does.

Tom

Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:22 AM

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@ LNK, when I saw the temp departure map you posted for the N.H. it struck me how the majority of the cold air was knifing down out of the Arctic into North America. As it stands now, the CFSv2 is predicting a major trough like feature in Canada, suggesting to me that the Polar Vortex will be an even stronger feature than we saw last year. In fact, it may even rival '13-'14 from this distance. Over the last several cold seasons, Siberia and East Asia saw the brunt of the cold that hit hard, and early which lasted the entire winter in that part of the world. Is nature going to balance that out this year??? I think so and I'm tempted to say that this will be an extreme winter season across Canada/U.S. I believe the signals will be showing up in Sept across Canada as we see lobes of the Polar Vortex spinning near Hudson Bay sending numerous cold fronts down into the U.S. Something peculiar is evolving and I'm beginning to put a finger on it.

NEJeremy

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:46 AM

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say, who knows what's going to happen?

Last winter was supposed to be epic everywhere based on the models, indices, and analogs, and we ended up with 18" of snow total and most areas were below or near normal for snowfall for the season. Spring took a while to get here and there was some extreme cold in January, but overall it was a pretty benign winter.

This summer was supposed to begin hot and dry with talks of a severe drought kicking in especially out here in the Plains, and instead a lot of areas have had record rainfall and flooding and still the heat.

All I know is I am done telling my relatives/friends what the upcoming winter is going to be like in the fall. They've stopped believing me

CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 July 2018 - 06:42 PM

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Around here 1983-1984 was absolutely the best as a young kid. As I recall we had 8 or 9 snow days. From a Thanksgiving blizzard to record cold to storm after storm until April. 13-14 was not good in Central Nebraska, just cold and dry.

LNK_Weather

Posted 13 July 2018 - 06:43 PM

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Around here 1983-1984 was absolutely the best as a young kid. As I recall we had 8 or 9 snow days. From a Thanksgiving blizzard to record cold to storm after storm until April. 13-14 was not good in Central Nebraska, just cold and dry.

This. Besides 2016-17 obviously, 2013-14 is the worst recent year for us. And we haven't gotten above normal snowfall since 2012-13. And we haven't REALLY gotten above normal snowfall since 2010-11.

LNK_Weather

17-18 was actually good here though no big events but above normal snowfall and quite a bit of cold.

We were below normal here but it's the best year we've had since 2010-11. I don't consider 2012-13 to be above normal because basically half our season's total came from quick melting systems in March, April, and May.

OKwx2k4

Posted 13 July 2018 - 08:22 PM

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We were below normal here but it's the best year we've had since 2010-11. I don't consider 2012-13 to be above normal because basically half our season's total came from quick melting systems in March, April, and May.

You're in same boat as me. 12-13 could have been an amazing winter for me. Snowed everywhere but here and, as you said, enough precip, just very very marginal cold every time. Needed too many things to go right every time and it just didn't. Most failed snow chances I have ever seen. Very memorable because of the May snowfall and record lows in 2013.

Tom

As stated in the ENSO thread, fresh hot off the press, the JAMSTEC, is sniffing out a potentially cold winter across the CONUS.

Some previous forecasts which the model "saw" comparing our upcoming winter is the 2009-10 season. Back in July 2009, this is what the model was seeing.

Very similar SST configuration across the equatorial PAC, but across the N PAC, its colder across NW NAMER...this is prob a bigger difference when comparing the 2 seasons, as well as, the cold waters in the W ATL across the eastern seaboard.

CentralNebWeather

I remember 83-84 a bit. Seems like there was some brutal cold around here and we did have a big April snow.

We had the longest stretch ever of not rising above 0. I need to research the exact length and date. The Thanksgiving Blizzard had us stranded at our Aunt’s house for 2 days. It was so fun for all of us little kids at the time to sleep on the floor. Thinking back 35 years, there are relatives that are no longer with us that spent a wonderful weekend together.

Tom

Posted 16 July 2018 - 09:19 AM

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The latest IRI mult-ensemble model has come out today and paints quite a different picture. While this could be a possible outcome, its hard to believe since Alaska/N Canada/Greenland are so warm. STJ looks active on this model which confirms a southern stream storm track.

As we go through the 2nd half of Autumn into Winter, the pattern changes...

Tom

After performing some data crunching and comparing this year's Arctic temps and QBO index through June, I found a very similar match and that year was 2010.

Check this out, here is the chart below showing the current state of Arctic temps through mid July...

2010...notice the drop in arctic temps mid summer towards 0C...same timing, and if you also compare both charts from Day 75 they are behaving similarly. Both years start with a similar QBO index value in the -10's gradually decreasing, however, in 2010, it bottomed out in the month of May (-26.28) and continued to rise into positive by Aug and continued + through Autumn/Winter.

Now, when I looked at the NAO/AO index values that season (2010-2011), from Oct-Jan it had a general -AO and at times a major -AO. It flipped positive Feb-Apr. In terms of the NAO, I would say it was generally slightly negative in Oct, neutral through 1st half of Nov, then second half of Nov it tanked and stayed negative from Dec-Jan, reversed positive in Feb-Apr. I'd say if the QBO continues to show declines and remains negative throughout the Autumn/Winter we stand a very good chance to see significant high lat blocking this cold season.

With all this in mind, I find it hard to believe that we will not see blocking. In fact, there is evidence that it could be rather significant. I'm going to pay attention in the regions of Scandinavia and Alaska as my two hot spots this Autumn.

OKwx2k4

After performing some data crunching and comparing this year's Arctic temps and QBO index through June, I found a very similar match and that year was 2010.

Check this out, here is the chart below showing the current state of Arctic temps through mid July...

2010...notice the drop in arctic temps mid summer towards 0C...same timing, and if you also compare both charts from Day 75 they are behaving similarly. Both years start with a similar QBO index value in the -10's gradually decreasing, however, in 2010, it bottomed out in the month of May (-26.28) and continued to rise into positive by Aug and continued + through Autumn/Winter.

Now, when I looked at the NAO/AO index values that season (2010-2011), from Oct-Jan it had a general -AO and at times a major -AO. It flipped positive Feb-Apr. In terms of the NAO, I would say it was generally slightly negative in Oct, neutral through 1st half of Nov, then second half of Nov it tanked and stayed negative from Dec-Jan, reversed positive in Feb-Apr. I'd say if the QBO continues to show declines and remains negative throughout the Autumn/Winter we stand a very good chance to see significant high lat blocking this cold season.

With all this in mind, I find it hard to believe that we will not see blocking. In fact, there is evidence that it could be rather significant. I'm going to pay attention in the regions of Scandinavia and Alaska as my two hot spots this Autumn.

Yes, yes, yes, aaaaaaanndd yes. There is a near 90% chance, in my book that the PV gets demolished this winter. I literally cannot see how it can't. I cannot imagine 2010 with the fuel of a warm neutral or weak Niño and that juice off the coast of SoCal and Baja. My take would be that if you blended this year and 2010 together, would be something like maybe 1917-1918. I remember back in 2013, a lot of these years in some old boards I was on came up around this time along with 1977-78. The fact also, that I haven't seen an analog set with many years past 1990 in it in awhile also speaks pretty good volumes to what we may be looking at this fall and winter.

Tom

Posted 19 July 2018 - 03:27 AM

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Yes, yes, yes, aaaaaaanndd yes. There is a near 90% chance, in my book that the PV gets demolished this winter. I literally cannot see how it can't. I cannot imagine 2010 with the fuel of a warm neutral or weak Niño and that juice off the coast of SoCal and Baja. My take would be that if you blended this year and 2010 together, would be something like maybe 1917-1918. I remember back in 2013, a lot of these years in some old boards I was on came up around this time along with 1977-78. The fact also, that I haven't seen an analog set with many years past 1990 in it in awhile also speaks pretty good volumes to what we may be looking at this fall and winter.

By Sept, I think we'll see a good idea of how the vortex will behave this season. Like you, I'm seeing more and more evidence this season to be highly unusual in terms of the placement of the Polar Vortex. I'm not finding many reasons as to why it could not be. Can you? Seriously though, all the indications are for a displacement and/or significant weakening of the PV this year.

TBH, and I'm really confident in saying this, the southern Plains will finally see a winter this year. Is it your back yard? I hope so! I'd love to see you get smashed a couple times this year and see a manifestation of a deep south, Texarkana Low track N/NE up towards the GL's! Hahaha, one can only dream of a Powerhouse as such like back in Jan '78, just a bit farther west to hit your area.

Tom

OKwx2k4

Posted 19 July 2018 - 06:47 PM

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By Sept, I think we'll see a good idea of how the vortex will behave this season. Like you, I'm seeing more and more evidence this season to be highly unusual in terms of the placement of the Polar Vortex. I'm not finding many reasons as to why it could not be. Can you? Seriously though, all the indications are for a displacement and/or significant weakening of the PV this year.

TBH, and I'm really confident in saying this, the southern Plains will finally see a winter this year. Is it your back yard? I hope so! I'd love to see you get smashed a couple times this year and see a manifestation of a deep south, Texarkana Low track N/NE up towards the GL's! Hahaha, one can only dream of a Powerhouse as such like back in Jan '78, just a bit farther west to hit your area.

Honestly, I see no way we don't have a real winter here. I'd love to see a 1978, only with more snow. Over 30 consecutive days with snowcover is pretty amazing. Someone mentioned 1911-1912. Could we recreate the blue norther of 11-11-1911? If we displace the AO in late fall, it could be similarly impressive. One thing that is noteworthy also, usually when the AO index is falling, Arctic temps are usually rising or warm. You mentioned the Arctic is much below average temperature wise at the moment yet here goes the AO...ao.sprd2(3).gif24.84KB0 downloads

If the AO cracks and the Arctic is still in the deep freeze, there's almost a guarantee of more cold than you need and I imagine it could be hard to move too. I'm anxiously awaiting a very nice dry cold front to kill this heat once and for all.

The sun is dead. QBO is perfect finally. I don't know what more to ask for.
Some folks may wanna cancel the heatcasts for August though.

NEJeremy

Posted 20 July 2018 - 06:57 AM

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Honestly, I see no way we don't have a real winter here. I'd love to see a 1978, only with more snow. Over 30 consecutive days with snowcover is pretty amazing. Someone mentioned 1911-1912. Could we recreate the blue norther of 11-11-1911? If we displace the AO in late fall, it could be similarly impressive. One thing that is noteworthy also, usually when the AO index is falling, Arctic temps are usually rising or warm. You mentioned the Arctic is much below average temperature wise at the moment yet here goes the AO...ao.sprd2(3).gif

If the AO cracks and the Arctic is still in the deep freeze, there's almost a guarantee of more cold than you need and I imagine it could be hard to move too. I'm anxiously awaiting a very nice dry cold front to kill this heat once and for all.

The sun is dead. QBO is perfect finally. I don't know what more to ask for.
Some folks may wanna cancel the heatcasts for August though.

Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly.

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:

November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE? Very rare.

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

LNK_Weather

Posted 20 July 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly.

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:

November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE? Very rare.

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

The majority of snow did fall in December, but it was remarkable because that year we kept a snowcover from December 9 all the way until March 2. Even in the coldest Winters that is unheard of. February was warm-ish (multiple days in the 40s), but density of the snowpack combined with a reinforcing storm kept it on the ground until March.

OKwx2k4

Posted 20 July 2018 - 09:51 AM

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Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly.

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE? Very rare.

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

It's as simple as the AO crashed in October and rebounded in November only to crash again in December-January. Global temps and US temps are 2 totally different things. Next to 2000, I think 2009 was my only other cold October in recent memory. Second place if I'm not mistaken. Wouldn't have been that hard to beat a normal November. You didn't give a temp contrast like that back in 2000 between October and November?

OKwx2k4

Naturally, there's gonna be a warm spot when you do this. November 09 just didn't have any cold air left til December's AO crash. Naturally October beat it in negative temp anoms. When the AO finally tanks again this fall, (it will) all the Arctic heat talk will fire back up again while everyone ignores where the cold gets knocked off the pole to.

NEJeremy

Posted 20 July 2018 - 11:28 AM

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It's as simple as the AO crashed in October and rebounded in November only to crash again in December-January. Global temps and US temps are 2 totally different things. Next to 2000, I think 2009 was my only other cold October in recent memory. Second place if I'm not mistaken. Wouldn't have been that hard to beat a normal November. You didn't give a temp contrast like that back in 2000 between October and November?

We're so different than a decade ago right now that it's ridiculous. All NH heat appears to be in the mid-latitudes, not the Arctic.

Sorry for the dumb question I guess. I'm aware of global temps and US temps being totally different. I had inferred that low sunspot activity meant the planet would be cooler, not just part of one continent.

The statistic about Lincoln came up when I was trying to refresh my memory what things were like around here back in 2009 during the last low sunspot activity and thought it was a pretty cool stat since that was only the 2nd time in 125 years of record keeping that the average November temp was higher than October.

NEJeremy

Posted 20 July 2018 - 11:30 AM

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The majority of snow did fall in December, but it was remarkable because that year we kept a snowcover from December 9 all the way until March 2. Even in the coldest Winters that is unheard of. February was warm-ish (multiple days in the 40s), but density of the snowpack combined with a reinforcing storm kept it on the ground until March.

Yeah I remember the snowpack sticking around forever. Set records I believe

OKwx2k4

Posted 20 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

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Sorry for the dumb question I guess. I'm aware of global temps and US temps being totally different. I had inferred that low sunspot activity meant the planet would be cooler, not just part of one continent.
The statistic about Lincoln came up when I was trying to refresh my memory what things were like around here back in 2009 during the last low sunspot activity and thought it was a pretty cool stat since that was only the 2nd time in 125 years of record keeping that the average November temp was higher than October.

Not a dumb question. I'm so sorry if my reply read that way. That is a very impressive and unusual stat/accomplishment.

Tom

Posted 21 July 2018 - 03:37 AM

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In year's past, I have found a correlation between the location of the strat warming and eventually where blocking develops in a 2-3 week period. I know it is very early to even talk about this, but I have never seen this happen in mid/late summer. Is it a coincidence that there is warming at 30mb during a deep -QBO, low solar period??? Currently, 30mb readings are rising per the latest data....see below...

This animation below shows the beginning of when the warming really begins expanding around 7/11....

What is interesting about all of this, the 2-3 week lag period of when the strat warming began, fits what the models are beginning to show. The location of this warming is directly over the Pole. Models are now sniffing out a slightly -AO...pretty neat how this all ties together.

JMA 30mb zonal winds showing no signs of trending positive, in fact, next month may register an even steeper -QBO reading.

OKwx2k4

Posted 21 July 2018 - 07:24 AM

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In year's past, I have found a correlation between the location of the strat warming and eventually where blocking develops in a 2-3 week period. I know it is very early to even talk about this, but I have never seen this happen in mid/late summer. Is it a coincidence that there is warming at 30mb during a deep -QBO, low solar period??? Currently, 30mb readings are rising per the latest data....see below...

This animation below shows the beginning of when the warming really begins expanding around 7/11....

What is interesting about all of this, the 2-3 week lag period of when the strat warming began, fits what the models are beginning to show. The location of this warming is directly over the Pole. Models are now sniffing out a slightly -AO...pretty neat how this all ties together.

JMA 30mb zonal winds showing no signs of trending positive, in fact, next month may register an even steeper -QBO reading.

Might be the first time in 3-4 years I haven't been too fast with a pattern change. A COLD pattern change at that!!

indianajohn

Posted 31 July 2018 - 09:42 AM

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Hey guys hope everyone is having a great summer!!!. I have a question regarding the volcanic activity this year and the affect it has on the weather especially winter seasons. Is there any data supporting this one way or another??

OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2018 - 10:50 PM

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Hey guys hope everyone is having a great summer!!!. I have a question regarding the volcanic activity this year and the affect it has on the weather especially winter seasons. Is there any data supporting this one way or another??

Enhanced volcanic activity is known to both cool the globe and enhance blocking in the N. Hem winter months. Depending on the latitude, magnitude, season, etc..., you can probably expect changes or effects as early as 6 months or as long as 1.5 years in some instances. The effects can last from 1.5 years to 3 years depending on many many variables. A high amount of suspended volcanic ash in the atmosphere (at certain levels) has been known to radically enhance snowfall ratios in the winter also.