Even though Tuesday’s much-anticipated storm (dubbed Stella by The Weather Channel) was producing more of an icy mess than a winter wonderland along the corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York, it wouldn’t be entirely fair to call it a bust. Power outages were piling up quickly at midday Tuesday throughout the region as fierce winds battered the area, gusting well above 40 mph along the coast from New Jersey to Massachusetts. Precipitation has been very intense, just as expected, and you don’t have to go far inland from the Interstate 95 corridor to encounter extreme snowfall.

Mount Pocono, PA, had received 23.0” of snow as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, and Endwell, NY, just west of Binghamton, had racked up 18.3” as of 10 am. Highland Lakes, NJ—only about 30 miles northwest of Manhattan—reported 14.5” as of 10:25 am, with an astounding 4.5” of snow reportedly falling in just one hour.

Conditions were already improving in the Washington area at noon Tuesday, according to Capital Weather Gang. Snow totals in the District have been fairly underwhelming, around 2” - 3”, although the White House CoCoRaHS station reported a healthy 2.34” of liquid equivalent.

Near I-95 in Pennsylvania, the snow turned to freezing rain and sleet early Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Philadelphia relayed several reports of 1/4” ice accumulations (“…what could have been snow,” the office pointed out). Snowfall in the Philadelphia metro area was generally in the 3” - 4” range as of late Tuesday AM.

While more than a foot had fallen by midday across New York City’s northern suburbs, Central Park had received only 4” as of 8:00 am EDT, with lighter snowfall reported after that point. Further upstate, far eastern New York and western New England were on track to get very heavy snow toward Tuesday afternoon and evening. As of 10:40 am EDT, the most likely totals predicted by the NWS/Albany office include 18” - 24” in the Albany area and 24” - 30” in far southern Vermont.

After a quick burst of snow Tuesday morning, southeast New England will be experiencing mostly rain as a wedge of warmer air surges into the region. Boston will be on the knife edge of the snow/rain transition zone, which makes the ultimate snow totals there very hard to call. “Snow accumulations are quite difficult [to predict] across eastern New England because of the extreme snowfall rates likely at the time of the changeover,” explained the Boston-area NWS office. “Being off by an hour or two on the changeover will have huge implications.”

Most of Maine should stay on the snowy side of the developing coastal front, although a changeover could occur along the mid-Maine coast as the intense surface low moves nearby. Portland, ME, may end up in the running with Albany, NY, for the heaviest accumulations in a sizable Northeastern city, with as much as 18” possible.

Figure 3. Observed water levels above MLLW (mean low low water) at Atlantic City, New Jersey, on March 13-14, 2017. The MLLW level (red trace) peaked at 7.8 feet above MLLW at 9:18 am EDT Tuesday morning, March 14. This corresponded to a peak storm tide (the height of water above the high-tide mark, or the difference between the red and blue traces) of 3.40 feet. Image credit: NOAA TIdes and Currents.

A modest coastal flooding threat by nor’easter standardsThe exceptionally strong winds of Stella drove a storm surge of 1 - 3.5 feet on Tuesday morning along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. The most notable storm surge occurred at Atlantic City, New Jersey, where the storm tide (the height of the water above the high tide mark) reached 3.40 feet—placing it #9 in the top ten list of highest water levels on record for the city. (The previous tenth-highest water level in Atlantic City's recorded history was 3.24’, set during last year’s nor’easter on January 23, 2016; the highest was 4.38’ during the December 11, 1992 nor’easter.) Tuesday morning’s storm surge caused moderate flooding, shutting down Route 322 and smaller streets in West Atlantic City, and was just 0.2’ short of the major flooding threshold, according to heraldcourier.com.

As of this writing, the peak storm surge and storm tides had yet to occur along the coasts of Connecticut, eastern New York, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts; mostly minor coastal flooding is expected, with a few pockets of moderate flooding, due to the relatively rapid motion of the storm across the area. Slow-moving nor’easters are a much bigger coastal flooding threat, since the wind has more time to pile large amounts of water up against the coast. The main concern for coastal flooding will come during the early Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle, when the strong winds of the storm will coincide with high waters from a higher-than-usual high tide, due to the full moon that occurred on Sunday. Wave heights on the ocean waters off the coast of Rhode Island are forecast to range from 11 to 16 feet, causing considerable beach erosion.

According to the NOAA Quicklook Tides and Currents page for Stella, the following approximate peak storm surges (height of the water above normal) and storm tides (height of the water above the high tide mark) were observed on Tuesday morning:

Figure 4. Freeze warnings (dark purple) occupied a huge swath of the east-central U.S., from southern Missouri to South Carolina, as of Tuesday morning, March 14, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Freeze damage a significant threat this weekA moderately cold air mass for mid-March could have outsized impacts on vegetation in the eastern U.S. this week, given that the cold blast is arriving on the heels of a remarkably warm late winter. Crops and landscapes have been budding, greening, and blossoming several weeks ahead of their usual pace across most of the eastern U.S., so the impact of this week’s expected freeze will be more akin to getting such a cold shot in early April. Temperatures may dip below 25°F as far south as Atlanta on Wednesday morning.

“The greatest risk of the late-season deep freeze in the Southeast will clearly be to the agricultural and farming sector,” said Steve Bowen (Aon Benfield) in an email on Tuesday. “Following such a warm winter, many farms have been reporting earlier-than-normal blooms for some crops (fruit crops in particular). If temperatures fall as much as currently forecast, and stay cold for consecutive days, there could be many millions of dollars of damage from lost crops. The dollar amount will ultimately depend on how cold it actually gets, of course. Even a few degrees in either direction could make a huge difference in financial cost.”

The beloved cherry blossoms of Washington, D.C., were on a record-early pace before this week’s cold and snow. The peak bloom in D.C.’s Tidal Basin is now expected between March 19 and 22, according to the National Park Service—still quite early by historical standards—although the quality of the display we can expect is now in question.

Bob Henson

Figure 5. Temperatures predicted by the 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS model for 8:00 am EDT Wednesday, March 15, 2017. Overnight lows could be several degrees lower than these values. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Reader Comments

I have said that we would have to wait to see how the rest of the world responds to Trump's anti-climate change stance before we would know how devastating Trump's policies will be in the global effort to try to mitigate the worst that a warming global climate will bring us. I would say that we are about to find out which way this is going to go. Strap in tight, folks. There are indications of severe turbulence ahead.

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WANT AT LEAST $5.4 TRILLIONIn May, the French foreign minister, who is now presiding over the Paris talks, explained that the willingness of the U.S. and other developed countries to transfer money to developing countries would play a “decisive” role in reaching an international agreement on climate change.

As of last Friday, 73 developing countries had submitted plans for how much they would reduce their own emissions. They also estimated that meeting these goals would come with a high price tag: approximately $5.4 trillion by 2030. India alone estimates that it wants $2.5 trillion by 2030. South Africa says it wants $909 billion. Iran says it wants $840 billion – and warned that its greenhouse gas pledge is entirely dependent on the removal of all sanctions.

The countries expect to pay for just $253 billion of the total themselves. Another $1 trillion would come from international sources. The countries offered no explanation of where the bulk of the money – $4.1 trillion – would come from. Presumably, they expect other countries to eventually fund that shortfall.Link

These huge figures do not even include the desires of at least 50 developing countries that declined to provide specific estimates. They also do not include the financial requests of another 40 developing countries that the Organisation for Cooperation and Development projected could be eligible for international assistance in the future.

As a former meteorology student at FSU and emergency manager - Florida Division of Emergency Management, Fairfax County Emergency Management, Boston Emergency Management and Chicago Emergency Management - I am terming this a bust. I say this only because the hype was extraordinary. In Chicago, I heard about the impending "blockbluster blizzard" that would suffocate Philadelphia, New York City and Boston with 18'-24' in some locations. Maybe that is appropriate ... I am all about public awareness and preparation ... but on Thursday? Four-five days before the event?

Quoting 102. Patrap: Addiction is a disease, and even I wont hold that against a idiot.

Maybe visit your Local VA Hospital and see the effect opioids have had on Veterans.

Semper Fi'

listen, i got rachmones for people struggling with addiction, but i run out of ****s to give when we're talking about some dude what made tens of millions of dollars loudly swearing up and down that drug abusers should be locked up.

Quoting 111. weathermanwannabe: I was outside with some co-workers a little while ago and we were all commenting (here for North Florida) as I mentioned yesterday on here that this mini cold snap for the next few days reminds them of what March used to be like up here. One of the old timers said the past here was first cold snaps around October and November, drizzly rain and coldness to December, some bitter cold shots in January and February, then cool with a few late season cold snaps in March. This year, as well as last year, it was pretty much warm for the entire period..........In, fact I think that tonight will be about the 2nd freeze warning of the entire 2016-2017 Winter season for the Tallahassee/Big Bend region.........Pretty amazing.

I remember that old timer regime in the 80s. Lots of frosts from November to March with some deep freezes. I lost fully headed lettuce April 6 or 7 of 1987 with temps in the upper 20s. Large corn plants also froze. April 19, 1986 I forecast scattered frost and it verified in areas around TLH but not at the official observing site or in my rental garden. Low that night was 33F. THe MAY monthly record cold for TLH is 34F.

I was outside with some co-workers a little while ago and we were all commenting (here for North Florida) as I mentioned yesterday on here that this mini cold snap for the next few days reminds them of what March used to be like up here. One of the old timers said the past here was first cold snaps around October and November, drizzly rain and coldness to December, some bitter cold shots in January and February, then cool with a few late season cold snaps in March. This year, as well as last year, it was pretty much warm for the entire period..........In, fact I think that tonight will be about the 2nd freeze warning of the entire 2016-2017 Winter season for the Tallahassee/Big Bend region.........Pretty amazing.

All of these recent warmth records, and particularly in the Arctic region and northern latitudes in this recent period from 2015 into 2016 and now from 2016 to 2017, are pretty astounding to witness...............It's like the bottom fell out of the Arctic melt issue over the last 24 months; have to believe that melting permafrost, and related methane release, is part of the answer in those higher latitudes.

February 2017 was the second warmest February in 137 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

Last month was 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean February temperature from 1951-1980. The two top February temperature anomalies have occurred during the past two years.

February 2016 was the hottest on record, at 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than the February mean temperature. February 2017's temperature was 0.20 degrees Celsius cooler than February 2016.

Global map of the GISTEMP land-ocean temperature index anomaly for February 2017, relative to the 1951-1980 averageGlobal map of the February 2017 LOTI (land-ocean temperature index) anomaly shows that North America and Siberia were again much warmer than the 1951-1980 base period, and that Europe was relatively warm. — View larger imageThe monthly analysis by the GISS team is assembled from publicly available data acquired by about 6,300 meteorological stations around the world, ship- and buoy-based instruments measuring sea surface temperature, and Antarctic research stations.

The modern global temperature record begins around 1880 because previous observations didn't cover enough of the planet. Monthly analyses are sometimes updated when additional data becomes available, and the results are subject to change.

Hey, being discriminatory against March, are you? I want you to look the March 1993 Superstorm in the eye and tell it that it cannot be the storm of the century because it occurred in March.

In the Midwest and Great Plains, the epic snow storms tend to be at the edges of the cold season, October-November and March-May. In 2013, a point about 50 miles SE of Minneapolis got its fourth heaviest snow of record for any month, in early May and I think both MSP and Duluth set a top three record October 31, 1991. In 1987, the DC Veterans day snowstorm (Nov 11) was the fifth heaviest of record for any month (been eclipsed since by dumps in 1996 , 2003 2010, and 2016). NYC #1 was a March storm in 1888 but that may have again been eclipsed by a few of the 21'st century dumps, and some points in Eastern PA got over FIFTY inches from a 1958 March storm. It happens! March has some of the most interesting midlatitude cyclones of any month. The upper air pattern in the Northern Hemisphere looks most interesting (read weird and strange) in April when the westerlies adjust to rapid arctic warming. I used to cynically refer to the third or fourth week in April as "cutoff week"

Many have experimented with this stuff in terms of the magnetic lift in a super cooled environment; some of the people at the Mag lab were chuckled a few years that some students at some university cracked the possible code to UFO technology......................................

European researchers said Tuesday they had developed a cheaper and more efficient superconducting tape which could one day be used to double the potency of wind turbines.

Eurotapes, a European research project on superconductivity—the ability of certain materials to channel electricity with zero resistance and very little power loss—has produced 600 metres (1,968 feet) of the tape, said the coordinator of the project, Xavier Obradors, of the Institute of Materials Science of Barcelona.

"This material, a copper oxide, is like a thread that conducts 100 times more electricity than copper. With this thread you can for example make cables to transport much more electricity or generate much more intense magnetic fields than today," he told AFP.

"This new material could be used to make more potent and lighter wind turbines," he added, predicting it will make it possible to manufacture wind turbines one day with double the potency than existing ones.

In the long run the project could "revolutionise the production of renewable energy," the Institute said in a statement.

I had close friend in North Florida, who moved on to U Penn a few years ago, who was a scientist at the National Magnetic Lab here in Tallahassee and who is one of the foremost scholars in the world on metals superconductivity......Amazing stuff in term of super cooling certain metals, and alloys, to increase electrical current-conductivity. That technology would be very expensive to implement across power lines but the tech is there to make energy grids more efficient; the US Navy has used some of this technology in some of their more recent surface ships instead of opting for nuclear power.

The EPA Used to Tweet About the Environment. Now It Just Tweets About Scott Pruitt.

It's his own PR firm.

One of the first actions the Trump administration took when it entered office was to crack down on the Environmental Protection Agency, starting with its social-media feeds and website.

The agency's work on climate and energy policy has slowed to a crawl, but it has been replaced with a different focus: the promotion of the new EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt. With one exception, all of the EPA's tweets and Facebook posts since Pruitt's confirmation have been about his various appearances or sharing quotes from the EPA chief or President Donald Trump. The only time the EPA tweeted about an environmental issue, it was to promote Trump's executive order attempting to roll back a Clean Water Act rule. (On Monday, outside of the three-week period we used for this analysis, the EPA finally tweeted about a local grant.)

This is unusual. During the Obama administration, the EPA Twitter account certainly publicized and promoted Administrator Gina McCarthy, but it was a far smaller portion of its work. Here's a comparison of tweets over a three-week period:

Social media was then used as a tool for educating the public about public health problems and environmental initiatives, but under Pruitt, public education work is at a standstill.

[...]

Trump's team froze all social-media accounts and public communications when the new administration took office. The agency is posting updates again now that Pruitt is in charge, but its work on clean air, science, and climate change is far from the focus. The flurry of Twitter activity welcoming Pruitt after he was sworn in has since slowed mostly to promoting his speaking engagements. On Monday, which was out of the range for this comparison, the EPA had one additional tweet about policy but kept up its Pruitt-focused ratio with one quote and retweet from Pruitt.

[...]

Some of the EPA's followers on Facebook and Twitter have noticed the abrupt shift:

Abigail Rathbun: WHERE'S THE SCIENCE? I don't care about Scott Pruitt's PR. I'd love to know about EPA grants that have funded bioremediation or the ongoing clean up work at Super Fund sites. Or perhaps what the EPA will do to fight a98% cut in funding for the Great Lakes.

Matthew Novak: Where's all the educational EPA posts? You guys used to have some awesome science and environmental articles that you'd post. Now, you're just Scott Pruitt's fan club.

How electric cars take over oil-rich NorwayWith more than 100,000 electric cars already on the road, oil and gas-rich Norway aims to phase out fossil fuel cars altogether by 2025. Can it be done? Lars Bevanger reports from Oslo.DW, 15.03.2017

WPC forgot to mention the SE in this short-range forecast in terms of the Arctic cold blast; freeze warnings all over North Florida and South Georgia overnight.............Forecast down to 28 degrees; I brought the potted plants in last night.........Pretty chilly for mid-March in these parts and it will probably kill off many of the plants and flowers that had an early bloom this year although my Azaleas (in my yard) actually bloomed in late January and ran their course for the season about a month ahead of schedule.

...Remaining cold over the eastern U.S. with rain and snow for thenorthwestern U.S. states...

The powerful nor'easter that has plagued the northeastern U.S. over thepast two days is now beginning to weaken some and will continue liftingnorthward into Canada during the day Wednesday. Interior sections of NewEngland and upstate New York were hammered with 1 to 2+ feet of snow,while high winds and heavy rain battered the coastal areas from theCarolinas to Cape Cod. Some lingering snow showers will be likely acrossparts of New England on Wednesday with the low over Quebec.

A fresh surge of arctic air will settle in behind this nor'easter acrossmuch of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast throughThursday. An impressive upper level low will cross the region onWednesday, and there will be enough instability to generate periods ofsnow showers from the Appalachians to the coast. Once this passes, alarge surface high will settle in from the west and allow for sunny topartly cloudy skies for the end of the week, while still keepingbelow-average temperatures in place.

Out West, a Pacific front moving onshore across Washington and Oregon willbring periods of rain and mountain snow through Thursday, with anadditional area of enhanced precipitation across the northern Rockies. Given that a warmer weather pattern will be in place, expect snow levelsto be higher. Flood watches and advisories are in effect for parts ofthis region owing to snow melt from the rain and warmer temperatures. Itwill continue to stay warm and dry across the Desert Southwest through theend of the week.

I could have sworn last night's forecast called for "JUST" cloudy skies >_>. Also there was one confirmed tornado in Plantation..... and that's the only confirmed tornado in Florida.... on the map.... SE FL.... That or they did not record those reports yet. :P(This image subject to change and may be the wrong one by the time you see it)

Confirmed Tornado touched down at Nassau, Bahamas Lynden Pindling International Airportcaused a Commercial aircraft to nearly flip and wrecked some cars

The National Weather Service confirmed two EF-1 tornado touched down in Charlotte County overnight.

The NWS reports the wind reached 100 miles per hour and hit 0.2 miles outside of Punta Gorda. The other tornado started as a waterspout on the Intracoastal waterway racing in from the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Manasota Key.

Families were picking up the pieces of their homes Tuesday afternoon.

Officials believe the tornado hit the Palm Shores community northeast of Punta Gorda on Aspen Road near US-17, where a barn was destroyed. The homeowner said the destruction began just after 10 p.m. and ripped off the barn's roof. Additionally, his truck with a horse trailer attached was picked up by winds and landed on its roof.

"A tornado must have went through. He said your barn is gone and part of it is in my backyard," said resident Gayle Rogers.

Metal rolling doors were bent and pushed around, furniture could be found in the trees and insulation scattered around in the yards.

Down the road, the high winds also tore the roof off Anneke Mander's home.

"We were in bed. My daughter went downstairs to go to the bathroom and not a minute later, everything breaks lose," Manders said. "Pure scared. Pure fright. It was just very loud. Very scary. Just I've never felt that before. It was horrible."

According to authorities, nine properties sustained damage as a result of the tornado.

"Frustration. Just like everything, we lost everything, but I thank God we're all OK," Manders said.

Trees surrounding the property were uprooted from the ground.

"Oh, I'm just shocked. I can't believe how fast things can change and how much we take for granted," Rogers said.

But admist all the shock, a subtle reminder she didn't realize she was wearing: Live laugh love.

"Oh it's an old shirt, but it's one of my sayings," she said. "Look for the good things in life because they're there. That's all."

What happened in Manasota Key?

Manasota Key, an area that often struggles with erosion issues, was hit hard. Residents woke up to fallen trees, mangled lawn equipment among other damage. In all, the tornado damaged 24 properties.

One of those properties was owned by Toni and Tom Orr. From the front of the house, it looks pretty similar to how they bought it in 1979. From the back, a much different scene.

"I was sitting in a chair. My husband sitting in another chair. It was thundering, heard the waves and the rain kind of changed," Toni said.

A living room that now looks more like a back porch as the roof was ripped off revealing the sky that dropped a tornado at precisely 9:16 Monday night.

Toni knows the precise time the storm hit because that's the time the clock is stuck at as it froze after the storm knocked out their power. That's when the couple scrambled for cover.

"When I was shutting this door, I could hear the woo, the low pitch they talk about with the train, and I knew something," Toni said. "I was gonna go into the bathroom. As I opened that door, stuff was flying, so I shut it. This door was already shut and deadbolted, so I dropped down to the ground here, and dropped down to my feet and did the maneuver we teach the kids."

"My husband and I [were in different areas]...we were yelling back and forth to see if we were OK."

Amazingly, among all of the shattered glass and scattered debris, some memories were left completely undisturbed. One of them being a picture frame of Toni's mother who bought the house as her dream home in the late 70s.

Utility crews are trying to return power to 140 homes between Pine Street and River Road in Englewood.

Send photos of storm damage in your property to newstips@NBC-2.com.

The NWS reported another EF-1 tornado hit Broward County.

Quoting 47. isothunder67:

I could have sworn last night's forecast called for "JUST" cloudy skies >_>. Also there was one confirmed tornado in Plantation..... and that's the only confirmed tornado in Florida.... on the map.... SE FL.... That or they did not record those reports yet. :P(This image subject to change and may be the wrong one by the time you see it)

I'm gonna stop you right there. Let me see you forecast a Nor'Easter for the East Coast with no models. Go on, I'll wait.

Edit: For the others, you can do it, I suppose. But it's hard to argue "you guys know NOTHING about the weather" when the poster responsible uses terrible grammar/spelling and uses severe accusations with not an iota of proof, with "my own eyes" not admissible as evidence here.