Arnold Schwarzenegger draws the headlines and the TV cameras in California's
overcrowded recall race, and Arianna Huffington may add some glamour, but
smart political observers may very well be looking at the wrong politician
to win it all on October 7, assuming that voters decide to recall Gray Davis.

He's not the glitziest guy in the race. He's not the richest guy. But he's
a known quantity and the only statewide elected official.

Cruz Bustamante is unique in this free-for-all. He is the only name Democrat
running. The smartest thing the Democrats have done in this race is to clear
the field for Bustamante. They hope to consolidate the vote behind one candidate
in the event that the voters decide to recall Davis.

Unfortunately, the Republican / conservative vote will be split between
at least five Republican candidates.

First, there's Arnold, who is no social conservative. He intends to transfer
his box office appeal to the ballot box. He's armed with one-liners but does
he really have an ability to address the bottom line issues? California's
problems are so deep, you simply can't say "hasta la vista" to
them and expect them to go away. True, he has advisors from the administration
of Governor Pete Wilson. He will probably draw the younger, independent-leaning
libertarian types - the kind of voters who are not dependable at turning
out - as opposed to die-hard conservatives and Republicans. His reputation,
higher poll ratings and sizable bankbook certainly put the other Republicans
at an initial disadvantage.

There's Bill Simon, a solid conservative who certainly has a bankroll to
shoot. He received on-the-job training in California politics last year during
his race against Gray Davis. The governor, as is his style, had to trash
Simon to win reelection, given his obvious failure to offer voters any kind
of real inspiration in his own record. Simon's campaign stalled for a while
after a stunning upset in the primary by the heavily favored Richard Riordan,
then the mayor of Los Angeles. Simon finished five percentage points behind
Davis' 47% in the fall election, an indication of the governor's lackluster
appeal. He's thoughtful and principled, but Simon has to struggle out from
under Arnold's huge shadow.

Tom McClintock, a state Senator from Simi Valley is an experienced Republican
with expertise on fiscal issues. McClintock drew more votes than Simon last
year in the race for state controller; a race that neither of them won. He
definitely has a following among grassroots conservative activists.

Peter Ueberroth was the president and CEO of the 1984 Olympic games and
former commissioner of Major League Baseball. He can talk about his own business
experience and play upon the nostalgia of some bygone better days.

The presence of McClintock, Simon, Arnold, Uberroth and Arianna Huffington,
the ex-Gingrich gal gone Hollywood, means it will be very hard to consolidate
the GOP vote.

How galvanizing a Democrat candidate is Bustamante?

Bustamante

On the plus side, Bustamante can deliver an inspiring story. He's the guy
from a working-class family who went to work in the fields at a young age
and wanted to be a butcher. He ended up becoming a state legislator and then
lieutenant governor: the first Hispanic elected official to be elected statewide
in well over 100 years.

Bustamante can count on organized labor to come through for him. This election
will serve as a test drive for organized labor's 2004 turnout effort. Some
unions are said to be somewhat standoffish on Bustamante, but given what
is at stake, the odds are that the unions will be putting forward a full
court press to elect him.

Then, there's the trump card. Bustamante is Hispanic-American in a state
where Hispanics are becoming more politically powerful. Indeed, even if that
is not enough to help turn out Hispanic Democrats, perhaps Wilson, who was
not fondly remembered by many Hispanics for supporting the 1994 Proposition
187 initiative to deny illegal aliens the services of state government, will
prove to be a useful foil for Bustamante. None other than Harold Meyerson,
editor at large of the left-wing American Prospect has suggested this strategy.

In this field of glamorous and rich candidates, Bustamante is the one who
may be able to convince average voters that he understands what they are
going through. He's not photogenic, but he has a plainspoken way of talking.
If Bustamante has it in him to be a Trumanesque Democrat, speaking in an
appealing manner to the guy on the street or at least the core Democrat constituencies,
then he might start to catch on. In order for that to really happen, the
Democrats are going to have to make a couple of decisions. They have to pull
the anti-recall campaign off life support, which would send the governor
to the political graveyard, and then decide to rally behind Bustamante.

Bustamante is no social conservative. Conservatives might attempt to dampen
enthusiasm for him among traditionally-minded Hispanics. There are at least
two areas of vulnerability. Bustamante is in favor of domestic partnership
legislation favored by the state's homosexual lobbies. He is also weak on
pro-life issues.

As for what role the recall will play in 2004 politics, my bet is that many
GOP strategists, particularly those outside California, are secretly hoping
to let this so-called opportunity slip through their fingers.

The recall is not going to put California's fiscal house in order. If a
Republican wins, the odds are that he will become embroiled in a battle with
contentious and partisan Democrat majorities in the state House and state
Senate who have offered no real support for Gray Davis, but would certainly
not cooperate with a Republican governor. If that's the case, the new governor
is likely to become the state's new scapegoat. That will not do President
Bush any good at all in the 2004 campaign. Whereas, a failing Democrat governor
of America's largest state might be a useful foil for the President. "If
you want to send all of America speeding down the same dead-end freeway that
led to California's crackup, then put a Democrat in the White House," the
GOP could warn.

So, that's what Republican pros are probably thinking: Why not sit it out
for three more years and then make it a clean sweep, electing a GOP governor
as well as several more legislators.

It may not be the most pleasant thing to say, but that's the way I see
it. If I'm wrong, then all I will be able to say is, "Well, who in
their right mind can predict what a state as crazy as California will do?"