hms iron duke

Monday, 29 September 2014

Alphen,
Netherlands. 29 September. Winston
Churchill once said, “Civilization will not last, freedom will not be kept,
unless a very large majority of mankind unite together to defend them”. This week Norway’s former Prime Minister Jens
Stoltenberg will take over as NATO Secretary-General. In the wake of this month’s NATO Wales Summit
Stoltenberg will face the greatest strategic challenge to the Alliance since
the Cold War. The threat comes not
specifically from Russia or Islamic State unpredictable and potentially
dangerous though they are. Indeed, no NATO
member presently faces an existential threat.
No, the real threat to the Alliance comes from the members themselves
and the steadfast refusal of many of them to see the world as it is, not as
they would like it to be. European
leaders bereft of vision and political courage talk endlessly about long-term
strategy when they mean short-term politics.
Solving NATO’s strategy conundrum is without doubt the greatest
challenge Stoltenberg faces.

In
that light Stoltenberg’s tough job will be no less than to nudge the European
members of the Alliance back to a strategic reality in which credible military
power is re-established in Europe as the hard rock upon which the twenty-first
century influence of a twenty-first century Atlantic Alliance must necessarily
be built. Sadly, all my research shows
the exact opposite is happening. Only
four NATO members meet the Alliance target of 2% GDP on defence and if one
looks closely at the language of the Wales Summit Declaration few have any
appetite to meet it.

Even
those states that nominally spend 2% GDP on defence either spend badly or use
accounting tricks to maintain the illusion of upheld defence expenditure. Take my own country Britain. David Cameron made much of his commitment in
Wales that Britain would continue to spend 2% GDP on defence. Sadly, like so much of his smoke and mirrors
premiership the ‘commitment’ is in fact a political illusion and a mask for
further defence cuts. Senior word from
within Parliament tells me that Britain will only maintain the 2% target on
defence by including costs hitherto outside of the defence budget, such as
nuclear forces, pensions and operations.
As ever with Cameron clever politics masks appalling strategy as in all
likelihood should he win the British general election in May 2015 he will move
to cut the conventional force even more.
Proof of this is the difficulty the Royal
Air Force has had mustering six ageing Tornado aircraft for operations
against Islamic State this week and the spin operation by London to pretend
otherwise.

Strategy-killing
politics oozes from the many pages of the NATO Wales Summit Declarations and reflects
a fundamentally false assumption; that the United States is and will remain the
strongest military power on the planet, by some distance and for the
foreseeable future. Yes, the Americans
are still the strongest military power on the planet but Washington is mired in
debt and uncertainty with the US military facing defence cuts between now and 2020 greater than the combined defence expenditure of ALL the NATO
Europeans. In other words, the great age
of unrivalled American supremacy is coming to an end and NATO needs
collectively to get its heads around the implications of that.

The
terrifying truth Secretary-General Stoltenberg will face this week is that the military
balance of military power is shifting away from the West at breakneck
speed. By 2016 Russia will spend more on
defence than France and Germany combined.
China, which now spends at least $130bn per annum on it armed forces (and
probably far more) has been investing per annum double-digit percentage
increases in defence ever since 1989.
President Xi is determined to further increase such expenditures. Contrast that with NATO Europe. Thirteen of the world’s top twenty defence
slashers between 2012 and 2014 are in NATO Europe. These are cuts upon cuts for between 2008 and
2012 many NATO Europeans cut their defence budgets by up to 30%.

And
yet, if NATO members got their collective act together as part of a
twenty-first century transatlantic security contract they could a) help keep
the US strong where it needs to be strong – Eastern Europe, the Middle East and
Asia-Pacific; and b) demonstrate to the world that whatever a state spends on
armed force such expenditures will never outstrip those of the West and are
thus a waste of money. To do that NATO
and its members will need to look hard at how to generate real efficiencies and
generate new strategic partnerships the world to multiply real effectiveness. That will require a radical NATO. Sadly, the words ‘radical’ and ‘NATO’ are
strangers to each other.

There
is one other challenge Mr Stoltenberg will need to consider on his first day in
the office – the coincidence of crises.
It is annoying that the Russia-Ukraine War and the threat posed by
Islamic State to the Sykes-Picot Middle Eastern order should come at one and
same time. It would be so nice to deal
with crises separately and sequentially.
Welcome to the real world. The
future Alliance will rarely be allowed the luxury of choosing crises. Indeed, the West’s adversaries will do all
they can to complicate American strategy (and by extension NATO ‘strategy’) by
generating simultaneous crises.

NATO’s
bottom-line is this; the United States is the world’s only world power that is
present in strength in every world region.
However, to be critically strong in every region the US will need NATO
Allies that can act credibly in and around Europe as crisis first
responders. Succeed and NATO will
reinvent itself as an Alliance and regenerate itself in the American political
mind. Fail and NATO will simply fade
into anachronistic strategic irrelevance and the world will be a very much more
dangerous place for that.

European
defence irresponsibility has been a major factor in making the world today more
dangerous than it need be because it has made the costs of challenging the
West’s supremacy both achievable and bearable.
Therefore, if freedom is to be defended Stoltenberg’s first challenge
will be to shift the Alliance beyond its false comfort zone. To do that Secretary-General
Stoltenberg will need to get the North Atlantic Council to look up and outwards
at big strategy rather than down and inwards at narrow politics where so many
of Europe’s short-sighted leaders find false comfort.

Thursday, 25 September 2014

Riga, Latvia. 25 September. "What we are witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War...but the end of history as such...and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government". Twenty-five years ago Francis Fukuyama wrote one of those epoch-bending, era-defining articles that caught the imagination of the moment. "The End of History?" first appeared in the review "The National Interest" in 1989 before being expanded into a best-selling 1992 book. Fukuyama's book has been much misunderstood ever since, mainly by those who claimed to have read it but never actually did. Fukuyama was not suggesting the end of events but rather that law would replace power in international relations built on the principles of liberal democracy and peaceful free market competition. 'Law' to Fukuyama represented a series of normative rules and practices by which all states would abide. Still, twenty-five years on the re-appearance of Macho-politik and Machtpolitik in Europe challenge Fukuyama's thesis to the core.

The EU is in many ways the ultimate embodiment of the Fukuyama thesis, far more than his own native United States. Indeed, it is power versus law that is at the very centre of the clash of cultures embodied in the 2014 Russia-Ukraine War. On the one side of the clash (much more than NATO) is the EU and its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) which was launched amidst much fanfare in 2004. Central to the ENP is a very technocratic view of international relations with so-called "association agreements" designed to tie states beyond EU borders to the Brussels Way. Future EU membership is implicit rather than explicit in such agreements with the prospect of copious amounts of EU taxpayer's cash on offer to ease the path of weak states to the east and south of the EU as they 'align' with Brussels via regulation and EU "law".

On the other side of the clash is Russia. For Moscow whatever the means the EU employs to extend its influence is still a function of competitive geopolitics and thus a zero sum game in which Russia loses. To Moscow Brussels might dress up its advances in "law" but ultimately EU expansion is all about influence and power and thus can only be at Russia's expense. In the recent past Russia rather lamely tried to counter the EU with its own Eurasian Union. However, Moscow's EU has little attraction to those in Russia's "near abroad" who have no wish to find themselves back in a Soviet Union re-born.

The irony is that Fukuyama's thesis is being contested by a Russia that Fukuyama did not predict. Russia is simply a traditional illiberal power (although it shares many of the hallmarks) but a state that sees itself as a form of hybrid "sovereign democracy". This confuses other Europeans and helps to explain why 2014 marks the end of the Fukuyama thesis (at least for now). Such confusion is also reflected in the stark nature of the clash and Russia's very real return to the principles of Machtpolitik.

This cold new/old reality was evident in the 5 September abduction of senior Estonian Intelligence officer Eston Kohver who now languishes in a Moscow jail. All the evidence suggests he was abducted from within Estonian territory by the so-called "Alpha" Spetsnaz team from the Special Operations Centre of Russia's FSB Intelligence agency. On the face of it Russia's action suggests that Estonia, the most exposed of the Baltic States, might be the next target for the ambiguous warfare Russia unleashed on Ukraine. Certainly, Mr Kohver will have deep knowledge of Estonian defences and Estonia's working relationship with both NATO and the EU and no doubt that has now been extracted.

So, power or law in Europe? At present it looks very much like Russian power is winning with what is essentially a weak hand given the state of Russian society and its economy. The ceasefire in Ukraine is in fact a de facto acknowledgement of Russian gains. Mr Kohver, much like the shooting down of MH17, seems sadly to have been confined quickly to the politically-convenient archives of history.

The essential folly of Fukuyama's EU has also been revealed. In practice Fukuyama's thesis has helped to disarm Europe, politically, militarily and even mentally. For twenty-five years Europe has played EU legal chess in a bid to fulfil Fukuyama's dictum with a Russia that pretended to play along. In fact, it was only a matter of time before Russia went back to playing the power poker with which Moscow is much more comfortable. Moscow's "defection" from EU chess this year has left Europeans simply unable or unwilling to see what is happening, not least because many of them have simply forgotten how to play power poker. Technocracy does not do geopolitics.

This reality was brought home to me in Oslo this week. I had the honour of addressing the excellent international Army Summit 2014 hosted by the Chief of Staff of the Royal Norwegian Army. It was a fascinating day. We talked about defence cuts, interoperability between armed forces, diversity and political correctness and the experiences of the ordinary soldier. The one word that was missing from the conference was 'power', until of course I rose to speak. I imagined Churchill alive today and what the great man would have said about Europe's retreat from power into 'law'. He would have gazed sternly at the audience and in good time and no doubt as politically incorrect as me, the great gravel of a voice would have thundered, "Power is a fickle mistress. Treat her with respect or she will soon seek favours elsewhere".

It is Fukuyama's relationship with power that causes his thesis to fail. In international relations power is more abiding than law. In geopolitics 'law' can never be an alternative to power but a consequence of it. Law needs power and no amount of clever technocracy can replace power. This is what Moscow understands and 1989 Francis Fukuyama caught up in the Cold War ending euphoria of the moment failed to understand. I bet he does now. Does Europe?

Sunday, 21 September 2014

“Let
there be sung Non Nobis and Te Deum, the dead with charity enclosed
in clay”

Henry V, William
Shakespeare

Oosterbeek
War Cemetery, Netherlands. 21
September. A lone Spitfire barrel rolls
over the assembled veterans, a C-3 Dakota transport aircraft rumbles overhead
in splendid salute. Russet autumn leaves
float to the ground from the giant American oaks that surround this place of
sanctuary as if the souls of the paratroopers who lay interred herein are making
one final drop. Amidst the browns,
greens and greys of an ageing year airborne maroon on young and old runs like a
proud seam between then and now, in a great jump across the seventy years that have
passed since the great battle of September 1944. This is a day of proud men, real men for whom
the ranks of Portland stone are not just the names of young men but real
people, real comrades, fallen friends. It
is these brave men many weighed down in old age by their own bemedalment who can
tell the real story of the real battle for Arnhem, not Richard Attenborough’s “Oh What a Lovely War with Parachutes”,
false ‘epic’ “A Bridge Too Far” that
so ill-defines those fateful days between 17th and 25th September,
1944.

Seventy
years ago today Operation Market Garden
had been underway for four days. A
massive combined airborne (‘Market’) and land (‘Garden’) operation in which British,
American, Canadian, and Polish forces fought together with the Dutch Resistance
and the Dutch Princess Irene Brigade to capture three vital bridges. If successful Field Marshal Montgomery’s brilliant
but risk-laden operation would have seen Britain’s XXX Corps under the command of
Lt. Gen. Brian Horrocks cross the Rhine and open the way into Nazi
Germany. The plan came close to
succeeding and no doubt would have but for the unexpected presence of the II SS
Panzer Corps and the 9th and 10th SS Panzer Divisions
under the command of Lt General Wilhelm Bittrich. The key to the battle was the bridge at
Arnhem which is today called Johnny Frost
Bridge in honour of the British colonel commanding the 1st
Parachute Brigade and who came so close to succeeding.

On
17 September, 1944 41,628 airborne troops launched the largest airborne
operation in history. The airborne force
consisted of the British 1st Airborne under the command of Major-General
Roy Urquhart, the US 82nd Airborne under the command of Major-General
James M. Gavin, and the US 101st Airborne under the command of Major-General
Maxwell D. Taylor with the 1st Polish Independent Parachute Brigade
under the command of Major-General Stanislaw Sosobowski held in reserve.

The
strategic aim was for the airborne forces to to enable General Dempsey’s 2nd
British Army to enter Germany quickly, capture the Ruhr industrial belt and so
end the war by crossing the rivers Waal,
Maas and finally the Rhine at Arnhem. However,
for Market Garden to work XXX Corps
would need to reach Eindhoven in 2 to 3 hours and cover the 65 miles/104kms
between its jump-off point at Lommel, Belgium and Arnhem in 2-3 days to relieve
British 1st Airborne.

To
assist XXX Corps in its drive north the US 82nd Airborne would land
in the Nijmegen/Grave area and take the bridge over the Waal and the US 101st Airborne would land in the
Eindhoven/Son area closest to the September 1944 front line and seize the bridge
over the Maas. Seven bridges in total had to be seized. Simultaneously with the drops XXX Corps would
punch a hole through the German front lines from their start in Belgium and then
drive quickly north to link up with the lightly-armed airborne forces. Having taken the bridge at Arnhem.

The
operation began well. At 1435 hours on
17 September behind a creeping artillery barrage XXX Corps began its drive
north with the Irish Guards in the lead under the command of Colonel J.O.E.
Vandeleur. However, the presence of
Bittrich’s forces close to Arnhem placed the British 1st Airborne in
a very precarious position indeed and increased the pressure on XXX Corps to
make rapid progress northwards.

However,
the US 101st Airborne failed to take the bridge over the Wilhelmina Canal at Son before it was
demolished by the Germans. This led to a delay of some thirty-six hours for XXX
Corps until a temporary British Bailey bridge could be constructed. Moreover, the narrowness of the roads and the
scale of liberation celebrations slowed XXX Corps significantly. On 20th September the US 82nd
Airborne after a river-borne crossing seized the north end of the bridge at
Nijmegen just as a Tiger-killing Sherman Firefly tank under the command
of Sergeant Peter Robinson of the British 2nd Grenadier Guards
stormed across the bridge from the south.

British
tanks paused at Lent north of Nijmegen due mainly to logistical reasons and the
vulnerability of tanks to German Panzerfaust
anti-tank weapons, which were particularly effective given that most Dutch
roads are on dykes. The delay
effectively meant that 1st Airborne in spite of an attempted reinforcement
by Polish forces on 21st September into drop zones that has been
overrun by the Germans. This led to the
slaughter of many of the Polish airborne troops. On Saturday, 25th September 1st
Airborne received orders to withdraw the remnant of that gallant force back across
the Rhine. Some wag at headquarters gave the operation the ironic title Operation Berlin.

Operation
Market Garden had failed. However, the
Allied front-line had advanced over 65 miles/110kms and large parts of the
Netherlands had been liberated. Allied
losses were probably around 17,000, of which some 13,226 were British, whilst it
is believed German forces suffered up to 6,000 killed. It is believed between 500 and 1000 Dutch
citizens were killed.

This
morning I had breakfast with Major-General ‘Mick’ Nicholson, commander of the
US 82nd Airborne and Brigadier Giles Hill of the British Parachute
Regiment. We met to discuss ‘strategy’. However, the meeting although important was
not the main event. We were all really here for the veterans. Today is their
day; a day to remember the sacrifice that has given my life the freedom I never
take for granted. There was another
group of guests among us, modest in number and modest in demeanour from Germany. This is as it should be; allies, friends and
partners standing in solidarity and paying respect for the ultimate sacrifice
that made liberty possible.

Today
I saw a past reconciled with a present in which a new generation of children offered
us all a bridge to the future. It is a bridge
of liberty that must always be defended and can never be too far - then, now
and into the future.

“I
was there, you know”. One brave soldier
says to me, tears in his wise eyes. “I
know”, I say. “For it is for you I have
come”.

Friday, 19 September 2014

Riga, Latvia. 19 September. I am exhausted, relieved and not a little emotional this morning. I have been up all night after addressing NATO generals here in Latvia watching the results of the Scottish referendum on television. I am also deeply proud of my country this morning. Britain endures, democracy prevailed and thanks to the good sense of the Scottish people the referendum on Scottish independence delivered a decisive 55%-45% vote for the continuation of an ancient union that not only defines my country but defines me. A proud Yorkshireman, Briton and Englishman with Scottish forebears the United Kingdom is for me deeply personal, goes to the very heart of my soul and reflects much of who I am. Indeed, I do not mind admitting to you that this morning a tear of relief ran down my cheek as the Scot's rejection of separation was confirmed.

This is not just a relief for me but here on the front-line of freedom people have been coming up to congratulate me in my relief. Like me they would have accepted a vote for separation, albeit in my case I would have been cast down. If one believes in the liberal democracy that defines much of Europe it is precisely the settled will of the people that must be respected even if one believe that will to be wrong.

No, for many Latvians Britain is more than just any old country. She is a vital ally and friend the diminution of which would undermine Latvia's precious and precarious freedom. Too often trapped in the short-termism of modern politics the British political class forget the strategic potency of Britain and the vital role a strong Britain plays in both European and world peace. Britain might no longer be a world power and the days of jingoism are long dead. However, Britain is still a strategic brand, a cornerstone of NATO and one of the foundations upon which a stable Europe is built. With so much uncertainty again in Europe and indeed beyond the need for big Britain to play a big role has never been greater, something Latvians see with a clarity that their position brings sharp into focus The descent of the United Kingdom into doubt and exaggerated decline (for that is what a vote for separation would have entailed) would have gravely undermined both Europe and the West.

Furthermore, separatists across Europe would have been encouraged and far from strengthening the voice of Europe in the world the Old Continent would have slipped even deeper into fracture and falter. Perhaps French President Francois Hollande put it best when he said that 'we' Europeans did not make Europe to get to this point; the deconstruction of nations. M. le President also said that getting smaller, allegedly to be stronger was the very opposite of the European ideal. Wise words indeed.

This morning Britain is awakening from a nightmare. Never again must Britain be brought to the point of disintegration. No doubt this morning Prime Minister David Cameron feels vindicated that he permitted such a referendum. He must also face the fact that he handled the entire process spectacularly badly. The panic in London after just one opinion poll showed the chance of a vote to separate was eloquent testimony to just how out-of-touch all the leaders of the main political parties have become. Indeed, Cameron allowed Nationalist leader Alex Salmond not only to set the terms of the debate, but also the timing, who got to vote and even the very question. In so doing Prime Minister Cameron put the Union at unnecessary risk and gave the separatists every chance of winning. Thankfully, the separatists did not win and Cameron's yes-no gamble paid off with Scots giving a decisive and clear answer to preserve the Union. It could have been so different this morning.

One thing is clear from this vote; political business as usual is not an option - be it in London or Brussels. My over-riding lesson from this whole stressful experience is that twenty-first century democracies only work if power is as close as possible to the people that legitimise it. Whether it be the arrogant disregard for the people shown for too long by the Westminster/Whitehall elite, or the gross and crass manipulation of democracy and the popular will by the Brussels elite sooner or later people will rebel.

It is also time to renovate the will of the majority. Both in Westminster and Brussels two trends have alienated the majority. First, the over-concentration of high power and high politics in ever fewer and ever less accountable hands. Second, the obsession of such elites with minorities often at the expense of majorities. Do not get me wrong, I believe deeply in protecting minorities but for too long the legitimate concerns of decent majorities on matters such as immigration and Europe have been disregarded and dismissed by the elite as populism or nationalism.

The distaste for big politics the Scots showed in this campaign is not unique to Scotland. Indeed, I see it a across the UK and indeed across the EU. I am sick of attending conferences and meetings and listening to presidents, prime ministers and ministers both past and present congratulating each other as great democrats or champions of the people when they are anything but. I see the political elite almost weekly and the spin of its self-satisfied complacency it is not a pretty sight.

Hopefully, the Scottish people yesterday lit a bonfire under such complacency. A bonfire that could and should act as a pyre for all the false 'certainties' of Westminster and the single-minded egotism of the EU elite. Indeed, as President Hollande said prior to the result, the referendum in Scotland may decide the future of not only the United Kingdom but also the future of the EU. There is a risk Europe could fall apart. In the words of Wellington it was a close run thing.

Thank you Scotland. Now it is time for bed. Tomorrow we start the construction of a New Britain in a New Europe.

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Alphen,
Netherlands. 17 September. The other day
I was talking to a senior German politician and I was struck by the commonality
of vision between us over the future of the EU. Importantly my colleague said
that whatever the hairy-kneed lunatic Celtic fringe to the north of England
vote for tomorrow – bigness or complete non-EU littleness – the relationship
between Britain and Germany remains vital if a competitive, open-for-business Europe
is to be built established on real economics and real growth.

Implicit
in Jean-Claude Juncker’s new European Commission is perhaps a pragmatic recognition
that for the EU to survive its people must prosper and for its people to
prosper Europe must be globally competitive. For that reason the Juncker Commission headlines
jobs, growth and investment, a digital single market and, here’s the cruncher,
a deeper and fairer economic and monetary union.

Do
not get me wrong. I have not withdrawn
my citizen’s principled objection to Jean-Claude Juncker. His appointment as European Commission
President was illegitimate and reflected German domestic politics and a grubby
stitch-up/coup contre des etats between leaders in the European Parliament that
had been planned well-before the May elections. Indeed, the whole process was elite cronyism
that made a mockery of those sad pre-election TV and radio advertisements
inviting ‘we’ the citizenry to have our ‘say’ on the EU’s future. It would have been at least more honest for
said advertisements to have said “have your say peasant, whinge if you like,
but we the elite will completely ignore you”.

Still,
implicit in the composition of the new Commission is the suggestion at least
that Juncker is sensitive to his own illegitimacy and cognisant of the need for
change even if also implicit in the headlines is the mother and father of all
political and cultural battles between liberals and statists,
intergovernmentalists and federalists. The
first signs are vaguely encouraging. Whereas
the Barroso Commission was obsessed with regulation for regulation-sake and how
to impose ever greater amounts of centralising, growth-killing lollops of Brusselsness
on the rest of us the Juncker Commission has a pragmatic balance about it.

The
Commission certainly does not lack for experience or people who have fought,
won and lost national elections. Team
Juncker comprises five former prime ministers, four deputy prime ministers,
nineteen former ministers and Lord Hill.
The British appointee re-confirms that now long-established British tradition
of complaining about the illegitimacy of the European Commission whilst at the
same time proposing a Brit no-one outside of a small London clique has ever actually
heard of.

The
rest of the Commission is the usual carve up.
Whilst Commissioners are meant to remove their national shoes as they
enter New Berlaymont they of course do not.
Of the important portfolios the Italians got foreign affairs and
security policy, the French got economic and financial affairs and the Germans
got digital economy and society.

Team
Juncker will also have seven vice-presidents (how many do you need M.
Juncker?). The Commission goes to great
lengths to tell me that 3 of the 7 or 42% will be women. Indeed, the Commission goes to even greater
PC lengths to point out that nine of the twenty-eight Commissioners will be women
(whoopee!). As someone who really could
not give a toss whether an appointee is male or female my only demand is that
the appointed women are good and judged on the basis of their professionalism
not gender. Too often in this absurdly
politically-correct age one sees women appointed simply because they are women. Not only does that diminish women and champion
mediocrity it is a form of discrimination which is increasingly alienating the
rest of us who are not part of the grey, male and stale political Establishment.

Juncker
has shown genuine magnanimity towards David Cameron and the Brits. Having completely outflanked David Cameron
(which is not exactly a shortlist these days) by appointing Hill as Commissioner
for Dodgy Money, sorry Financial Services, a key British interest, Juncker is
demonstrating a willingness to understand London’s concerns. Moreover, Juncker is also signalling he
understands that once the Eurozone, Scottish and Ukrainian crises are over the
next big crisis waiting in the wings for the EU (after the coming Italian
financial crisis) is the British/English crisis.

The
key appointment is somewhat grey (sorry Frans), clearly male, and very much
part of the political Establishment, erstwhile Dutch Foreign Minister Frans
Timmermans. He will act in effect as
Juncker’s Number Two on those days when Jean-Claude is a “little under the
weather”. He will also have the critical
responsibility for reforming the European institutions and the only good joke
one ever finds in Brussels – subsidiarity.

Timmermans
will be critical in ensuring the non-Eurozone member-states are not marginalised
to the point of exclusion as and when the Eurozone core moves to deepen
political and fiscal integration. If the
Eurozone does not further integrate and undergo deep structural reforms then it
will either break up or bankrupt the few northern European taxpayers (me) that
are at present simply bankrolling a crisis trapped in a no man’s land of
irresolution…and then break up. No
pressure then.

Perhaps
Juncker’s biggest challenges will be to curb his own federalising instincts and
the Euro-fanatics who work for him whose life-work is to kill the member-states
and replace them with a country called “Europe”.

Of
course, all of this makes the real question; how does Europe prepare together
for a twenty-first century world of which it is part but over which it has
little control? Implicit in that
challenge is the biggest question of all which of course Juncker will be keen to
dodge for now; a Europe of nation-states or a European state.

Juncker
has made a good start but the key question remains; will he pursue a liberal or
a statist agenda. If he follows the
latter Europe is indeed doomed and it will simply be a matter of time before the
EU fails.

Monday, 15 September 2014

Riga, Latvia. 15
September. Two thousand five hundred years ago the Chinese military strategist
Sun Tzu wrote, “To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme
excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance
without fighting”. Russia is fighting a
war of conquest in Ukraine and it is Europe’s first true strategic test of the
twenty-first century. It is an intelligence-led (FSB and GRU) ambiguous or hybrid war in which
disinformation, deceit and distraction are the primary tactics. The immediate aim is to confirm the seizure
of Crimea as a fait accompli and to create a new Russian protectorate called Novorossiya,
the Tsarist-era name for south-east Ukraine.
If successful Russia will review the performance of its strategy and the
response of the West before it considers if such a strategy can be applied
elsewhere around its borders. The over-arching strategic objective is to re-create a new sphere of influence that would
strengthen Russian prestige and influence in Europe and create a buffer zone between Russia, the EU
and NATO. The dynamic centre of Moscow’s
strategy is the modernising Russian armed forces reflective of a Kremlin world view that
has abandoned partnership as unfavourable to Russian interests. Instead, Moscow has returned to a zero sum game analysis of power in
which only one side can prevail. How can
Russia’s ambiguous warfare be countered?

Sitrep:Russia remains as committed to its war aims as ever. This week’s separatist-led attack on Donetsk Airport and the illegal entry of a
new convoy into Ukraine marks the beginning of a new phase of Russia’s ambiguous
war. The first phase hid behind the
strategic denial of European leaders that Russia would undertake such conquest in the twenty-first century Europe. As Europe's leaders have slowly awakened to this reality this new
phase hides behind a ceasefire that Moscow claims to back but which is now breached daily.

The
Western Response: Do
the same to Russia as Russia is doing to the West. In other words the West must as a collective
entity prey on Russia’s insecurities as Russia is preying on Western
insecurities. Russia insecurities essentially concern costs
versus benefits for an essentially fragile state and can be thus summarised: a)
Russia is a declining power that must act now if it is to establish a European
order that is Russia-friendly and thus prevent in the Moscow strategic mind the
consolidation of the EU and NATO on its borders; b) irrespective of current
actions Russia will over time be locked out of the European financial and
energy markets and must therefore re-establish Russian strategic
‘independence’; and c) in spite of Russia’s military modernisation programme over the longer term Moscow will become relatively weaker compared with NATO. The next decade is decisive.

Countering
Russian Strategy: The West must complicate Moscow’s strategic
calculations. The aim must be to
convince the Kremlin that the survival of the Putin regime requires an
accommodation with the West, most notably the EU. Such a strategy would need four elements: a
new political strategy; NATO military modernisation; a new NATO Forward
Deterrence Concept; and an Allied intelligence-led ambiguous warfare concept.

New
Political Strategy: The West must develop a political counter-strategy to
contain and roll back Russian aggression.
The aim of such a strategy would be to convince the Kremlin that it
would be in Russia’s best interest to withdraw from Ukraine (including Crimea)
pending talks that are aimed at finding a just settlement for ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the protection of the Russian Black Seas Fleet base in Sevastopol. Such a strategy would
preserve Ukrainian territorial integrity and enable Moscow to claim it is
acting in the best interests of all the parties to the conflict. However, such a
strategy would require first and foremost unity of effort and purpose. Sadly, that is lacking. For example, having supposedly suspended the
sale of two advanced warships to Russia at 0430 hours on Saturday the French
permitted Russian crews to re-commence training on one of the ships in St
Nazaire.

Good Cop, Bad Cop: France, Germany and indeed the EU could act as the ‘good cops’ committed to
keeping lines of communication open and offering Russia a new political relationship with Europe. Such
open communications would have four objectives: a) to demonstrate to Moscow
the political and economic consequences of continued aggression; b) the
benefits of respecting sovereignty and close working relationship with the EU; c) the need to re-posit all European
disputes within institutional frameworks that promote peaceful and legitimate
conflict resolution. The US and UK would, on the other hand, play the bad cops,
emphasising the threat Moscow poses to the European order. London and Washington would thus champion the medium to long term strengthening of NATO as a “bastion against
madness”, in the words of my good friend Professor Simon Serfaty.

NATO
Military Modernisation: The pace and scale of NATO’s
military modernisation must be overtly linked to that of Russia. Russia needs to see that the strategic
balance in Europe has been affected by its actions but to Moscow’s
detriment. Today Moscow believes the
Baltic States are indefensible. Moscow
also believes that between 2015 and 2020 the so-called correlation of forces
will shift inexorably in its favour given its military modernisation programme
and lack of any substantive countervailing modernisation in NATO Europe
(whatever last week’s NATO Wales Summit said).
Therefore, as NATO nations spend four times that of Russia on defence it
must be made clear to Moscow that any attempt to establish military supremacy
in Europe will fail and thus simply be a waste of money.

NATO
Forward Deterrence: NATO
must create a Forward Deterrence conventional force concept in support of all the Eastern Allies to
underpin strategic reassurance and collective defence. Moscow believes the Baltic States are
vulnerable to disruption, destabilisation and are thus effectively indefensible. Therefore, effective collective conventional deterrence is
at least as important as effective collective defence. Building on the NATO
Wales Summit the Alliance must establish a properly graduated response designed
to ensure the West dominates the escalation ladder. A Forward Deterrence strategy would confirm
the creation of a trip wire force on the territory of all the Eastern Allies. This force would involve US, UK and other high-end
Western combat forces permanently established in the Baltic States and elsewhere. NATO is already doing this to an extent but such a force
would need to be properly established within twenty-first century layered deterrence.

Twenty-First Century Layered Defence: The new Spearhead Force must be reinforced by the NATO Response
Force which in turn is established on a modernised NATO Article 5 defence that
combines advanced deployable forces, missile defence and cyber-defence into an effective
bastion. Critical to such an Allied
defence strategy would be the reinvention and modernisation of the old NATO
REFORGER concept with US and Canadian forces flying from Continental North
America to provide reinforcement during times of tension. Such a layered defence would need to be
designed, exercised, tested and validated.

AlliedAmbiguous Warfare: The West must convince Moscow that its
strategy is in fact backfiring. Therefore,
NATO must invent its own form of ambiguous warfare. For example, Special Forces
in relatively small numbers could be sent to Ukraine as advisers to assist Kiev’s forces in
a policing mission in Eastern Ukraine. Certainly, the presence of such forces would
complicate Russia’s strategic calculus. The forces
could go to Ukraine either under a NATO flag, an EU flag or as part of a coalition of
national flags and at the invitation of the Ukrainian Government. The aim would be to assist with a disciplined
and proportionate response by Kiev to the threat posed to Ukrainian stability prior
to talks over a new constitutional settlement.
Russia would not of course object as according to Moscow it is an internal matter for Ukraine and Russian forces
are apparently not engaged in Ukraine.
The presence of Western Special Forces would be reinforced by a major
NATO-led training mission in Ukraine (NTM-U).

The best way to combat
ambiguous warfare is through ambiguous warfare.
The real test is whether Moscow is right or not. Is there a West and if so does
it have the collective political courage and guile to craft and enact such a
counter-strategy?

Friday, 12 September 2014

Riga, Latvia. 12
September. The Riga Conference is one of
those annual ‘must not miss events’ on the strategic merry-go-round. Today I have the honour to chair two defence
ministers, a NATO leader and my old friend Ariel Cohen on the gripping subject of
the NATO Wales Summit 2014: Revitalising
the Transatlantic Bond.

The thrust of my leadership
will be to explore the growing gap between defence rhetoric and strategic
reality in Europe. Specifically, I will
test my panellists with a simple question; can the people of Riga sleep soundly
safe in the knowledge that NATO is REALLY defending them? With Russia behaving like an old bad-tempered
and grumpy uncle who has been on the alcohol for too long my Riga Test is
pertinent to say the very least. Indeed,
two years ago I posed the same question but as ever got no clear answer.

Central to the Riga
Test 2014 is the apparent contradictions in the ‘only bit that really matters’
core of the NATO Wales Summit Declaration – the bit that matches political
intent with military capability. The Declaration
kicks off with the usual summit guff. “Based
on solidarity, Alliance cohesion, and the indivisibility of our security, NATO
remains the transatlantic framework for strong collective defence and the
essential forum for security consultations and decisions among Allies”. It goes on (and doesn’t it just), “The North
Atlantic Alliance binds North America and Europe in the defence of our common
security, prosperity and values. It
guarantees the security of its members through collective defence”. And yet, the key paragraph on defence
spending suggest that NATO Allies will only ‘aim’ to spend the NATO minimum of
2% GDP on defence “within a decade. I am
still trying to get my head around this clear retreat from reality.

In 2012 here in Riga I
wrote, “The thing about power is that it is as unforgiving to those that have
it as it is to those who do not…It is clear that President Putin’s world view
is pretty ‘unreconstructed’ (to use the appalling non-speak of modern European
academia). His world is one in which
hard power is used to project soft power into spheres of great power influence and
devil take the small-most”. If anything
back in 2012 I was being overly-restrained given events in Ukraine.

The piece went on, “Riga
is the crucible in which a new Alliance will either be forged or die. Riga’s credible defence demands a new
strategic bargain between Washington and Berlin and given events elsewhere the
possible re-structuring of NATO into the EUrosphere and the defence
Anglosphere. The alternative is a United
States pulled progressively away from the defence of Europe by events elsewhere,
a NATO that fades as a result and poor, little Latvia once again trapped
between the Russian (planned) and German (not-so-planned) spheres of influence. History suggests that will not turn out well”.

There is an old joke
about NATO. NATO Heaven is a place where
the police are British (or what may be left of we British), the cooks are
French, the lovers are Italian, the beer is German and it is all organised by
the Americans. NATO hell is a place
where the cooks are Scottish, the lovers are German, the police are French, the
beer is American (heaven forbid!) and (sorry Italians) it is all organised by
the Italians.

There is a third ‘place’
called NATO Purgatory. It is a place where
leaders talk endlessly about ‘solidarity’, ‘cohesion’, ‘collective defence’, ‘security’
and ‘indivisibility’ but in fact do nothing whatsoever about any of them. A place where a few remaining deckchairs are
endlessly re-organised into “Readiness Action Plans” and given fancy titles,
such as “spearhead” or “very high readiness” even as the NATO Titanic sinks ever
lower into the rising tide of regional and global insecurity.

If Riga is to be
properly defended NATO will need a credible twenty-first century Forward
Defence concept. That means Alliance leaders
who radically re-conceive of NATO and build a truly twenty-first century NATO Future
Force at its core. A NATO Future Force
that can both deter and if needs be fight built on the investment vitally
needed today if strategy, capability and affordability are to be balanced and a
networked force crafted that enshrines close interoperability and deep jointness.

There was some good
work done in Wales ‘in the circumstances’.
But that, as ever, is NATO’s eternal problem; Alliance leaders never
actually address the right circumstances.
Certainly, my vision for a NATO Future Force was not adopted and NOTHING
in the Wales Declaration suggests one is about to be created for all the fancy
speak.

So, does NATO pass the
Riga Test 2014? The good people of Riga
have as yet no need to stay awake each night in fearful insomnia. However, they cannot possibly be sleeping as well
and as soundly as they did, even as recently as 2012.

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

9 September. Nine days to go to D-Day and the Scottish Referendum. Like many of us I am a true modern Briton - Europeanish, English, Scottish, and Yorkshire-ish - and yet like millions of us I am denied a voice in the most important constitutional question facing my country in over 300 years. For months I have wanted to send a message of hope, belief and mutual respect to my friends and family in Scotland. Instead I have listened to incompetent politicians simply create division where none exists. Whilst our politicians are by and large complete pratts - and we can all agree on that - we the people of our small island need each other, respect each other and must stay united as we all push for a new twenty-first federal Union in which finally power will be returned back to the people in a real democracy. Please join me and millions of others in a show of support for Scotland, our Union and our future democracy by going to www.letsstaytogether.org.uk and add your voice of support not for this Britain but a Better Britain in which all have a voice.

Alphen,
Netherlands. 9 September. The South
China Sea is hotting up as Beijing ups the ante on its long-term aim to establish
effective and exclusive control. China is planning to build an artificial island
on Fiery Cross Reef complete with military air strip and a 5000
tonne sea-berth. Beijing’s strategic aims
would appear to be fivefold: to create a military capability on the disputed Spratly
Islands that uses force to ends the sovereignty dispute with the Philippines and
Vietnam, to control the oil and gas resources believed to lie under the Spratly
Islands, to reinforce China’s self-proclaimed Air Defence Identification Zone;
to extend Beijing’s self-proclaimed Exclusive Economic Zone; and in time to tip the strategic balance against the US, Japan and South Korea.

The
Fiery Cross or Crann Tara is aptly-named. A Fiery Cross was a medieval Scottish (they
get everywhere) device used to summon the Clans in the event of danger. It was a half-burnt wooden cross soaked in
blood and used to warn clans of the revenge by fire and blood that
awaited those that did not answer the summons.
I am surprised Scottish Nationalist leader Alex Salmond has not invoked
the Crann Tara in his Little Scotland mission to
destroy the UK. He has invoked just about every other bit of Braveheart bravado.

The
planned Chinese base on Fiery Cross Reef would extend a UNESCO-commissioned Chinese-built
observation post that already exists. The artificial island would be at least
twice the size of the US military base on the British Indian Ocean island of
Diego Garcia and cover some 90 square kilometres or over 50 square miles.

What
are the wider strategic implications?
2014 has seen a distinct upturn in Beijing’s determination to extend its
power writ across the South China Sea. If
the construction of the artificial island goes ahead it will show a flagrant disregard
for international law not dissimilar to that of Russia in Ukraine. If successful China could well seek to build
a string of such islands to create an offensive military capability designed in
time to shut the Americans and its allies out of huge areas of both the South
and East China seas.

Beijing
is clearly determined to ensure China is the dominant strategic power in East
and possibly South Asia. However, unlike
Moscow Beijing is clearly prepared to build up its power patiently trading on
the political and military weakness of neighbouring states, the increasing political
and military overstretch of the United States and the strategic denial of European
leaders who refuse to realise that the world is on the brink of a new age of ‘might is
right’ hyper-competition.

This
bigger strategic picture was missing from last week’s NATO Wales Summit. The basic assumption behind the new
first-responder Multinational Spearhead Force was that the Americans will
always be able to act like the US Seventh Cavalry in those western movies of
old. In the event of threat the US would ride over the horizon
to save Eastern European ‘homesteaders’ from Russian aggression.

However,
implicit in the emerging and de facto Beijing-Moscow Axis is an agreement to
offer mutual support by complicating America’s strategic calculus during times
of stress by staging diversionary crises that stretch US forces to breaking
point. The use of Moscow-style ‘ambiguous
warfare’ could well be at the forefront of such a strategy so successful has it been in dividing Europeans. A reality self-evident yesterday when the EU could not agree to implement beefed-up sanctions. With the US cutting its armed forces by 2020
more than the entire European defence budget the prospect of a strategically-paralysed US is now very real.

Therefore,
NATO allies need to understand the nature of the new twenty-first century
transatlantic contract implicit in Wales. The Americans
will guarantee Europe’s defence but only if Europeans help ease the pressure on
the United States and its forces. That
means Europeans able and willing to join the Americans in future ‘broad
coalitions’ not just against the likes of Islamic State but in wider state-on-state
conflicts. Indeed, NATO only makes sense
from an American strategic perspective if it is part of a US-led world-wide web
of democracies that can and is able to work together politically, strategically
and militarily. That is why Australia is
such an important part of America’s ‘broad coalition’ because the presence of
Canberra establishes the precedent for NATO as a mechanism for the generation
of globally-capable coalitions. It is
also why Japan is changing its constitution to allow for the possibility of offensive
military operations and South Korea is keen to get involved with NATO.

Taken
together Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine and Beijing‘s ambitions in the South
China Sea mark the start of a new age of global challenge to the once
Western-led order. There were some signs
at the NATO Summit that some of the leaders might have understood this. However, only a very few of them did (at best) whilst the rest still seem lost in the regionalisation/integration fairy-tale
that is the EU. It would of course be
nice to think that good old-fashioned Machtpolitik
is a thing of the past. That is after
all what most Europeans and their leaders want to believe. It is not.

Therefore,
it is time to set the Fiery Cross aloft and remind the Western clans that
there are still those in the world who really do believe might is right and are
prepared to use it if needs be to achieve their ambitions. All of which makes the NATO ‘agreement’ to possibly
increase defence spending a little bit and possibly within a decade seem what it is - absurd.

Monday, 8 September 2014

Alphen,
Netherlands. 8 September. Last week former
NATO Supreme Commander Jim Stavridis and I co-authored a blog which called for
the creation of a NATO Future Force driven by a contextually-relevant NATO
Strategic Concept and underpinned by Alliance strategic unity of effort and
purpose. To be honest I was not
expecting too much from the NATO Wales Summit and only time will tell whether
finely crafted and drafted ‘language’ actually means anything. Indeed, after a depressing encounter last
week with senior Dutch politicians I suspected that the Summit would be more of
the same ol’, same ol’ – short-term politics dressed up was long-term
strategy.

This
weekend I have been carefully reading the Summit Declaration and associated
press releases (yes, I really am that sad). My conclusion is this; whilst historians will
not look back on the Summit as a pivotal moment in NATO’s now long and bumpy
journey they will see it as an important moment and possibly even the start of
a truly twenty-first century Alliance. There
was of course a lot of politics – the Summit was after all full of
politicians. However, for some leaders
at least there was finally an acceptance of what NATO is today, how it can best
be used and some consideration as to its future.

NATO
today is a coalition generator and commander for offencive security operations by
assorted members and partners alike and an absolute defence guarantee for its
members. Nothing more, nothing less. To an extent, Wales succeeded in reinforcing
both missions. Indeed, the Readiness
Action Plan, in many ways the centrepiece of the Summit, echoed (again to an
extent) the call Jim and I had made last week for a new agile strategy that in
effect merges collective defence, crisis management and co-operative security
into a coherent security and defence concept.
The addition of cyber-defence to collective defence was certainly also a
step down the road to the overhaul and modernisation of Alliance collective
defence that has long been needed.

However,
it is where ambition and investment meet that NATO’s rubber really hits the
road. With the new ‘Spearhead’ force ‘complementing’
the existing NATO Response Force and the seven High Readiness Forces one has to
ask just how many such forces the Alliance can create from ever-shrinking
militaries. Indeed, the Declaration simply
does not add up - literally. New forces
cost money and on the critical issue of defence spending the Summit Declaration
simply demonstrates the extent to which the Eurozone crisis has and is
undermining NATO. It was depressing to
read of, “the aim to move towards
the 2% guideline within a decadewith a view to meeting their [nations] NATO Capability Targets and
filling NATO’s Capability shortfalls” [my
emboldening].

In
other words many NATO members have no intention of spending more on defence and
that for them NATO will continue to either recognise only as much threat as
they can afford or expect others to do their defending for them. Pure nonsense! One thing is clear about the world in 2024;
the continued military weakness of Western democracies will only make it more
dangerous than it need be. Clearly, for
some countries, not least the Netherlands where I live, Russia’s actions in
Ukraine have not been enough of a defence wake-up call. What will it take?

The
Summit also points towards a two-speed NATO that will rarely if ever operate at
28. The news that a ‘core coalition’ of
NATO allies (plus Australia) will join the US in combatting Islamic State reinforces the Alliance as
an organiser of US-led coalitions for those states that can and will. First, the states involved are in and of
themselves interesting - America, Australia, Britain,
Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Turkey. These are NATO’s big and bigger powers, plus
the home of the current Secretary-General Denmark. This is clearly NATO’s core group with whom
the Americans will do business and Germany’s presence is important and to be
commended. However, where is the
Netherlands, Spain et al? Second, the
involvement of Australia in the coalition also suggests the US sees future NATO
as one element in a world-wide security web of democracies focused on the
United States but divided into the protectors and the protected.

There was of course the usual need for the Summit to clear up
unfinished business – the maintenance of an Open Door policy to new members,
the need to remain engaged in Afghanistan, the usual blah-blah about NATO-EU
relations and the even more usual nonsense about defence-industrial co-operation. However, there is something of an ‘overtaken
by events’, formulaic quality to these paragraphs which clearly suggests little
political appetite to actively pursue such ‘commitments’.

The bloody big elephant in that Celtic room was of course
Russia. The Summit Declaration used
strong language, “We condemn in the strongest terms Russia’s escalating and
illegal military intervention in Ukraine and demand that Russia stop and
withdraw its forces from inside Ukraine and along the Ukrainian border”. Nothing there to make President Putin blink
‘ceasefire’ or no ‘ceasefire’ and I suspect Moscow simply sees this as NATO posturing
after the fact of its actions in Ukraine.

The other elephant in the room was not so big and could be shrinking fast – Britain. For what progress there was in Wales the
much-challenged British Prime Minister David Cameron can take some credit. Indeed, with strong American support the
Summit was something of a success for British diplomacy and London is to be
congratulated for that. However, with
Scotland about to vote on independence it could be the very last such ‘British’
success. If Cameron loses Scotland it
will certainly be his last ‘success’ as he will not survive secession. Yes, the confirmation at the Summit that the
second of Britain’s new super-carriers HMS
Prince of Wales will join the British fleet as planned was good timing, decent
politics and effective leadership. The
same can be said for Britain’s offer to lead the new Very High Readiness Force.
However, if the UK is to continue to
lead by example (a very big if) London must maintain defence spending at above
2% GDP. Of course Little Britain could do that at a stroke with the loss of Scotland
simply by spending the same amount.
However, the loss of Scotland would be a national humiliation and dangerously
weaken one of NATO’s core states at a critical strategic moment.

As with all such declarations the devil is in the language
and the detail and the Declaration still reeks of denial and strategic pretence. Indeed, as I read through the text I could
not help but be reminded of my Oxford thesis on British Policy and the Coming of War 1933-1941. Back then I had the very real privilege of
reading all the British Cabinet minutes covering that vital nine year
period. Two themes emerged from my
study. Firstly, prior to World War Two
both the Baldwin and Chamberlain cabinets were deeply split over what to do
about the rise of Hitler. On one side of
a very intense argument were the ‘rearmers’ who drove through the huge 1934
rearmament programmes. These created radar,
the Spitfire, the Hurricane, Bomber Command and the new Royal Navy which fought and eventually
helped defeat the Nazis. On the other
side of the argument were the appeasers and those simply in denial about
Hitler. Second, there was a desperate
attempt by the Cabinet to give the appearance of unity of effort and purpose
where frankly none existed.

It
is clear that NATO today suffers from similar divisions and has a very long way
to go before the Alliance is in that now hackneyed phrase ‘fit for purpose’ for
all the challenges that the world will undoubtedly throw at it. Indeed, at points the Summit Declaration has
a strange ‘magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat’ quality to it given the gap
between strategy and politics that is all too apparent.

That
said I will go as far as to say that as far as it went the Wales Summit saw some
Alliance leaders begin to think big and look beyond their immediate domestic
challenges. Maybe, just maybe, a new
reality is slowly dawning. For that
reason NATO’s twenty-first century may just have started in Wales and for that
reason alone the Summit is to be commended.

NATO:
No Action (more) Talk Only? Only time will
tell if it is not already too late!

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.