Leopoldo López, leader of Popular Will (VP) and one of the two most popular figures in the Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance, has been imprisoned for more than a year. (Photo: Voluntad Popular)

In late October and early November, Venezuelan state oil producer PDVSA faces debt repayments totaling almost $3.8 billion. (Photo: Minci)

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Perspectives

Venezuela: Democracy Dies

As bond holders bite their nails, Venezuelan
democracy dies.

LATINVEX
SPECIALTenacitas
International

CARACAS --Alcedo
Mora, a high-ranking employee in the Mérida state government, left for work
on 27 February but never arrived. According to human rights defenders, Mora, a
veteran leftwing activist, had been attempting to expose corruption in the
national oil corporation, PDVSA. He had expressed concern that the government
intelligence agency, SEBIN, was looking for him. Family members told the human
rights organization Provea that two other men had also vanished.

Mora’s disappearance comes after several other disturbing
recent cases. Most chillingly, the bodies of half a dozen young men have shown
up in different parts of the country after being bound, tortured and shot. Two
of them at least appear to have been targeted for their political activities.

And in a basement complex known as “La Tumba” (the tomb),
four floors below the headquarters of SEBIN at Plaza Venezuela in central
Caracas, a handful of “maximum security” prisoners are submitted to sensory
deprivation and chilling temperatures, with electric light 24 hours a day. The
government has ignored calls by the Inter American Human Rights Commission to
bring conditions into line with international standards. It has reportedly
threatened other political prisoners with being transferred to La Tumba or to
one of the country’s highly dangerous common prisons. Perhaps as a result of
these threats, one prisoner – Rodolfo
González – apparently committed suicide on March 12, 2015.

Amid this increasingly grim human rights picture, the
United States government last week imposed sanctions on seven government
officials – including the head of the SEBIN, General Gustavo González López – for corruption and human rights abuses.
The response of President Nicolás Maduro
was to appoint the general as interior minister.

Under Maduro, opposition politicians have faced increased
harassment, judicial persecution and even imprisonment. Leopoldo López, leader
of Popular Will (VP) and one of the two most popular figures in the Democratic
Unity (MUD) alliance, languishes in the Ramo Verde military jail, accused of
criminal conspiracy for a campaign of demonstrations aimed at forcing Maduro’s
resignation. The mayor of greater Caracas, Antonio
Ledezma, joined him there last month after the president sent dozens of
heavily armed state security agents to snatch him from his office.

Almost half the opposition mayors elected in 2013 are
being prosecuted. Three MUD members of parliament have been summarily removed
and a fourth – Julio Borges, leader
of Justice First (PJ), one of the biggest parties – is likely to follow
shortly. Along with Ledezma and López he is accused of plotting to overthrow
the president.

Protesters are treated harshly: street clashes last year
cost 43 lives, more than 3,000 protesters were detained, dozens remain in jail
and over 2,000 were freed pending trial. Many complained of beatings and
torture. The UN rapporteur on torture, Juan Méndez, said this week that the
government had violated international law by failing to prevent torture; he
said the SEBIN was among the offenders. Defence minister General Vladimir Padrino López recently issued
a resolution outlining circumstances in which troops could shoot to kill
protesters. And on 24 February a member of the national police (PNB) shot dead
a 14-year-old student caught up in a demonstration.

In the western half of Caracas, whose mayor Jorge Rodríguez is a leading member of
the ruling PSUV, demonstrations are simply banned, as they are in many other
key locations across the country. Anyone thought to be trying to whip up
anti-government sentiment among people queueing for food, or even photographing
queues or empty shelves, is liable to be arrested.

Little of the independent press remains. Last month the
newspaper Tal Cual was forced to
close its daily edition as a result of government harassment and lack of
newsprint. There is now just one national opposition daily. The last opposition
TV channel, Globovisión, was bought in 2013 by pro-government interests and its
coverage neutered. Few independent radio stations risk broadcasting material
that might displease the government. Human rights defenders, lawyers and even
doctors face persecution and even jail time for exercising their professions.

The crack-down is not gratuitous. This is a government
under severe pressure, facing a key election year with poll ratings below 20
percent. If Maduro has a 2015 wall-calendar, it is a fair bet that a couple of
dates are circled in red. In late October and early November PDVSA faces debt
repayments totaling almost $3.8 billion. Between them, the central government
and PDVSA must pay out over $5 billion to service the foreign debt in October
and November. That represents roughly a quarter of the country’s reserves of
gold and hard currency.

Although most analysts now believe a default can be
avoided this year, a minority – including economists at Deutsche Bank in New
York – see no way of avoiding it. With or without default, or an adjustment
package, the pain will be considerable: food importers say they have received
no dollars for the past four months. Importers of medicines, medical equipment
and other essentials are in a similar position.

By chance, legislative elections are also scheduled to be
held in late October or early November. And with support for the PSUV down to
just 16 percent according to one pollster, the government has good reason to be
concerned. Even though identification with individual opposition parties is not
much higher, anti-government sentiment as a whole is running a clear 10 points
ahead, while Maduro’s personal popularity is around 20 percent and falling. The
central bank has stopped issuing figures for the scarcity of basic goods, but
independent sources put it at almost 60 percent. Despite crippling price
controls, inflation for 2015 is predicted conservatively to reach 120 percent.

Maduro’s control of the entire state apparatus, including
a compliant supreme court (TSJ) and electoral authority (CNE) gives him
breathing space. By manipulating the electoral law and gerrymandering
constituency boundaries, the regime obtained a 98:67-seat majority with less
than half the votes in 2010. But if it is not to resort to outright fraud this
time – and there is evidence that systemic electoral fraud may have been practiced
for many years – exceptional measures are clearly required. Hence the
president’s moves to close off much of the remaining democratic space he
inherited from Hugo Chávez (1999-2013).

Despite widespread
discontent, the MUD has failed to capitalize on desertions from government
ranks and even many of its traditional supporters are disheartened and in no
mood to vote. Recent MUD rallies have been poorly attended. Maduro, moreover,
has more tricks up his sleeve. He has sought (and will get) powers to rule by
decree. And already he has hinted that anyone deemed to be engaged in
subversive activities will be disqualified from taking office. The regime has
served notice that it does not intend to be voted out of power.