Kansas City returns home for three straight games now, with Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. Few would have thought they would enter this stretch already at 5-0. Kansas City needs to be on letdown alert this week, but the rivalry game should provide all the added motivation. The Raiders have won five of the last six games in this series, with the only Chiefs win being that interception fest the first week that Carson Palmer was traded to Oakland.

The Chiefs are +10 in turnover margin this year, after being -15 at the same point last year. The defense has played well, and the offense has generally done enough. How have those teams that have started so well in turnovers finished, though? Since 1990, 22 other teams were +10 after five games in turnovers.

They were a combined +1 over the remaining 242 games they collectively played. Let’s emphasize that, because that’s not an average. That’s exactly one more forced turnover than turnover committed for the rest of the season, for the group so good at avoiding turnovers and forcing them.

Of course, the team that avoided regression the most was the 2011 San Francisco 49ers, quarterbacked by Alex Smith. That team went an additional +18 over the rest of the season as San Francisco went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game.