Predictions for SBC 2020 in Orlando

I am still having trouble recovering from this year’s annual meeting. Wears this old codger out.

I was born on Friday the 13th, and tried to wear 13 in athletic competition when possible. So, here are 13 prophetic utterances about 2020.

Of course, if this were OT Israel my track record on predictions would have long since gotten me stoned to death.

What will Orlando hold for the SBC?

1. A smaller church challenge for the pastors’ conference is likely to happen again. No, I do not plan to be involved but I think it will happen.

2. As an election year, it will be a bit more rough and tumble than this year’s convention. It would not surprise me if there are three major candidates. A serious minority candidate for president is a distinct possibility.

3. Committee appointments and nominations will continue the trend toward diversity that was in evidence this year.

4. The abuse recommendations will pass a second time and go into effect.

5. Groups that are aggressively strident tend to head in 3 directions, when they realize they are not going to win a majority.

Some tire of the anger, accusation, and conflict and reenter mainstream denominational life.

Some become increasingly hostile and spiritually implode. We have seen that often in the blogosphere.

Some separate into tribal fellowships.

The anti-social justice minority groups that have become increasingly strident in the last year will likely see all three reactions within their tribe.

6. National politics will once again threaten the unity of our convention, since 2020 is a national election year.

We are still healing from 2016 and unless we handle this better, there may be a division in the SBC rivaling the CR.

7. The complementarian issue isn’t going away, but hopefully we will find better ways to discuss issues than Twitter battles marked by more name-calling and derogation than exegesis. Heaven help us if we don’t.

8. Abuse is not going away as an issue either. Our actions do not solve problems but only provide a framework for dealing with sin.

Push will come to shove when a prominent church with strong Baptist ties is caught in a coverup. Will we act to protect victims or the church?

9. We will continue to be criticized by many no matter what we do.

Progress in a convention such as ours is slow but it is being made. I understand why minority brothers and sisters are frustrated with the pace of progress and why abuse survivors are skeptical of our efforts. What we did this year should have been done a decade or two ago.

But it was done. Progress is being made. Things are changing and we need to keep working to make those changes.

Realize that there is a cottage industry in SBC criticism and no matter what we do, some will find a reason to insult and criticize. We must seek to do the right thing and to glorify God, not to make our critics happy. We should hear them, of course, but not be controlled by them.

10. J.D. Greear is the spearhead of a coalition of younger (minded) leaders who are stepping up.

Theologically conservative, they are culturally different than the old guard Baptists who have led us for years.

This transition could be interesting. This may be a new CR – a Cultural Renewal.

11. For a long time, I have been saying that the SBC needs a new Adrian Rogers, a statesman with grace, conviction, and character to lead the SBC.

J.D. Greear can be that man, if he wants to be. He has the juice.

12. SBC 2020 will be the highest attended convention in a long time. It is an election year and Orlando is a popular destination. Reserve your hotel early.

13. Our statistical decline will continue for the time being. Some numbers are up and maybe a few others will level off or tick up. This isn’t going away soon.

The SAAG wasn’t “ready” with any proposal for an abuse registry, indicating (I think) that the concept is being examined. I doubt the SAAG will wait until just before the meeting to have a conclusion or recommendation. I’d speculate that this will be the crucial issue relative to abuse in Orlando and that another highly visible protest/rally will be held.

I cannot see what a registry would accomplish that background checks would not.

Maybe someone can enlighten me.

June 17, 2019 9:35 pm

Mark Smith

From the conversations I have read, including on this forum, I think some think that churches will report “Joe” as a problem without him having been convicted or charged with anything by the legal system. I think that is a non-starter due to liability, but that is why some propose a separate system from background checks.

Not sure exactly what you mean here. There are plenty of questions and multiple topics here will discuss them between now and next year. Credibly accused abusers who are beyond the SOL are a problem identified by many victims and background checks are without any value in identifying all but a fraction of abusers. Some states (Texas most recently) added provisions to state law to provide some civil protections in giving references. I’m not certain how helpful this is but it looks like a positive development.

We’ve had this conversation in my church numerous times; there will be little resistance to a registry just as soon as someone can define “credibly accused”. Until then, I agree with Dave, a registry is not gonna happen.

June 18, 2019 10:16 am

Mark Smith

William, I meant exactly what I wrote. In response to Dave’s question about what an SBC database could have over a background check, I said that people want to add people who have not faced the criminal justice system. People on this thread are calling it “credibly accused.” This idea has been brought up in several previous threads as well, perhaps not by the thread writer, but by commenters.

As demanded. It adds the people who have not encountered the law enforcement system. Background cbecks, although a standard of care that is a minimum expectation, identify less than 10% of pelrps.

June 18, 2019 5:40 am

Dee Parsons

Good for you, William. You are correct.

June 18, 2019 11:24 am

Dee Parsons

A registry would include those who have been credibly accused but cannot be convicted due to SOL. Please take note of Andy Savage. (The church was SBC when Woodson came forward.) Background checks only expose those who have been convicted of sex abuse. The overwhelming number of pedophiles have never been convicted. Background checks provide a false sense of security. NIH. stats indicate that pedophiles have molested approx 100 times prior to being caught. Take a look at NewSpring Church in SC and see how they claim that they did what was required-background checks. But they ignored the rather obvious evidence they had I(video camera recordings) of multiple little boys being molested in the church bathroom and other church knew about this guy and just passed him on.

Enjoyed meeting you in Birmingham Thank you for coming to the Rally.

June 18, 2019 11:23 am

John Morgan

Just an observer, as all I know is what I read on the blogs and what is on Twitter. I know no power brokers. I have no inside scoop.

My thought and question is: would the Traditionalists and the 1689ers unite to back one presidential candidate? They share a common opposition to the ERLC as currently led. It is also an election year, adding to the controversy. With the arguments over social justice and conservative politics, I see common interests between the two groups that may override theological differences when they wouldn’t have in the past.

The traditionalists are still many in number. The 1689ers are a relative minority, but are organized and have a loud voice.

I may be totally out in right field on this one, but it’s an observation as I observe certain folks.

Dave your predictions are about as good as anyone’s will be. I am very curious about presidential candidates as are many I suppose. You’ll know before most of us and may already. Give us some hints when you can. Maybe name that candidate.
I agree about a statesman like Rogers and have also stated we are missing such a man as him now. I was impressed with JD. but not sure he is interested in carrying that mantle. At risk of aggravating some, I do think he is “God’s man for such a time as this.” I thought in the past it might be David Platt, but he has been damaged by the Trump and IMB episodes . My respect for Platt has increased since that happened. And I am not a big Trump supporter.

I have wondered if Donald Trump is going to split the SBC. I believe he is the root of much SBC division right now.
Like everything else, we’ll see.

June 17, 2019 11:21 pm

Steve Newhouse

Trump? Did Trump get involved in SBC policy or affairs in 2016 or vice versa? Did Trump recommend putting on record that the SBC supports Critical Race Theory as a “tool”, whatever that means. Did Trump send IMB into financial melt down with not account ability ? It will be interesting to see how the progressive SBC leader thread the needle in the 2020 election, Trump will be Trump, good or terrible, what will the SBC be? Perhaps the best policy is to stay neutral and keep out of politics. Bet it will not happen .

June 17, 2019 11:42 pm

Les Colvin

Those issues you mentioned will not lead to a SBC split because only a relatively few individuals have a strong opinion or interest. Many have very strong opinions about President Trump, both pro and con. David’s Platt’s experience is a case in point.

June 18, 2019 12:04 am

Steve Newhouse

Lee, I agree because most SBC members do not have a clue what goes on at the SBC leadership level.

It is no secret that I am no supporter of our president, but he will not divide us.

We will divide if we take our eyes off eternal things and put politics ahead of Christ.

No politician can divide Christ-focused people.

June 18, 2019 1:06 am

Les Colvin

I completely agree and not actually predicting. Your phrase , “Christ-focused people” is the key. And perhaps many are not at this point. it might not technically be Trump, but just look at the last year or so in SBC. Much of the dissension in our convention was over support for or against him. A state convention votes to rebuke and threatens to re-route funds away from a SBC entity (ERLC) and some even calling for that leader’s removal. A mega church withholds CP funds. And all over support or lack thereof. And then look at what David Platt has just been through.

Now, sure one could argue none of that was really about Trump. It was about believers getting too involved in politics, getting focus off of Gospel, etc., but something caused many to do that.
Unfortunately secular politics has crept into our churches and convention and Donald Trump is the catalyst for much of the dissension and division taking place.

June 18, 2019 8:22 am

Joel Hunt

The question is: how many in the SBC are really Christ-focused people?

If Trump splits the SBC, then the SBC deserves to be split. I am not advocating an SBC split.

June 18, 2019 4:57 am

Jesse Lott

Donald Trump is not going to split the SBC. He is not the root of the SBC division. The root of the SBC lies within the SBC. I will leave my comment there because I have made the commitment not to say or post anything that would not be edifying. Houston, we have a problem; it is ours and ours alone.

June 18, 2019 8:47 am

Kimberly

So, someone tell me about the meeting? Can only messengers go, or can spectators go too? I’m 100% positive I won’t be a messenger. But I’d be interested in listening to what is going on if I can get off work. Is that a thing?

The real question will be the long term emphases and enthusiasm for denominational work generally.

Churches function without regard to what is done at the denominational level. Churches that are effective often have limited contact with the denomination.

Over time we’ll continue to see how enthusiastic churches are or whether there is a falling off.

The US is changing. The rural parts of the US are changing. This will effect the SBC.

In the near term, I am wondering about whether a battle is brewing in the SBC academy.

Now that the issue has been put to n play about Critical Race Theory, with Mohler and Allen being very clear, I wonder what will happen. Will SBC seminaries become known as being more or less left leaning on this issue? How will that affect students who are choosing seminaries? How will it affect the donor base of these seminaries?

June 18, 2019 2:58 pm

Bill Mac

The Trump issue may or may not split the SBC, but I believe it will dampen our effectiveness. It probably has already.

June 18, 2019 4:15 pm

Les Colvin

And that was my actual thought when making the statement. I was not referring to an actual split, but in reality one already exists. Just bring him up and make a strong statement one way or the other and watch the fireworks. We are not split but we are divided. More than we might want to admit.

June 18, 2019 4:29 pm

Bill Mac

And the folks we are trying to minister to see it.

June 19, 2019 7:11 am

cb scott

I predict that the SBC will prosper no matter who is elected POTUS in 2020.

I make this prediction because this recent SBC was so completely refreshing. This old CR dog of war saw and heard some grand things from a younger generation of leaders. As my generation leaves the scene, I am confident that if Jesus tarries in His return the SBC shall be in competent hands.

I believe JD Greear has done and will continue to do an excellent as convention prez and those who follow will do well to follow his leadership model which, in my opinion, majored on openness and integrity.

One prayer I shall continue to pray is that minorities are elected to “Big Chair” positions in the future. It is my opinion that we had the opportunity to see that happen recently, but for some reason did not.

Nonetheless, the 2019 SBC was a grand event as experienced by this veteran of many Southern Baptist gatherings of the past.

One last thing. I am glad that Dave Miller (miserable Iowa fan) and Dave Cline (pitiful North Carolina fan) were able to each have a moment of silence in front of the Bear Bryant-Sugg Jordan statue. It was most certainly a touching moment for them as I saw tears welling up in their eyes as they walked away.