Governor Rick Perry's presidential campaign has been utterly baffling. The contrast between his superbly-managed entry into the race last August, eclipsing the Ames Straw Poll and stopping Michele Bachmann in her tracks, and the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses could not have be starker.

After finishing a disastrous fifth (as a social conservative and former Texas Agriculture Commissioner, Iowa should have been his to win) he announced on Tuesday night that he was returning to the governor's mansion in Austin for 'a little prayer and reflection' and to 'reassess' his campaign.

That seemed to be clear shorthand for signalling that he was dropping out of the race, particularly as it involved cancelling events in South Carolina yesterday.

But then Perry surprised everyone, including some of his own staff, by deciding that he would, after all, compete in the South Carolina primary on January 21st. All this follows a Politico story containing some epic mud-slinging between different factions within the Perry campaign.

Perry said that he went out jogging and was 'out on the trail when it kind of came to me' that he should continue his bid for the White House. Perry's runs can be eventful - he famously shot a coyote with a .380 Ruger pistol.

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The decision to stay in makes little sense. After a fifth in Iowa and skipping New Hampshire next Tuesday Perry's chances of the presidency are somewhere between very slim and zero. And his Hamlet-like indecision after Iowa won't help with donors or supporters.

Of course, the person who stands to gain most from Perry staying in is Mitt Romney. Even if Perry - who is a South Carolina kind of candidate - polls only a few percentage points there then that could be enough to split the vote and give the former Massachusetts victory or second place.

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Perry's exit might have meant more much-needed dollars flowing to Rick Santorum - and, who knows, perhaps even some big bucks from Perry's 'Super PAC' Make Us Great Again.

Remember, it was Fred Thompson's 15 per cent in South Carolina that stopped Mike Huckabee winning there, thereby handing the nomination to John McCain. I recall Thompson's staff telling me how Huckabee had begged Thompson to withdraw from the race (like Perry, he clearly wasn't going to win) but Fred was not for turning.

In the days after his Charleston announcement, Perry rocketed to frontrunner status and, as the 10-year governor of a job-creating state, appeared to be on course for the nomination if he kept his nerve, campaigned with some discipline and performed averagely well in the debates. Of course, his 'Oops' moment in Michigan ended all that, though he was already on the slide by then.

Exactly why Perry changed his mind about pulling out - he surely believed he would when he spoke on Tuesday - is a matter of much speculation. It could have been Texas pride. Some might wonder whether the Romney campaign made overtures, though relations between the two men have never been warm.

Whatever the reason for the decision, Perry's immediate legacy in this 2012 race (and the odds have got to be on him being out by the time Florida votes on January 31st or shortly afterwards) may be to deny Santorum the juice he needed and deliver the nomination to Mitt Romney.