Political Wisdom: Illinois Showdown

The quest for the Republican nomination continues, this time in Illinois, where 54 delegates are at stake. Latest polling shows front-runner Mitt Romney leading former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 45% -30%. What might the primary tell us about Mr. Romney’s future?

Romney needs to win Illinois, a state with many wealthier, less religious and suburban Republican voters.

His best chance of racking up votes is in suburban and exurban Chicago, home to a large number of fiscally conservative but socially moderate Republicans. But he will likely struggle in downstate Illinois, where Santorum has concentrated much of his time.

Romney has changed his focus in recent days, talking less about the delegate math and focusing more on broad themes. Speaking at the University of Chicago on Monday, he used words from Milton Friedman, the school’s famous right-wing economist, to argue that government stands in the way of a strong economy…

He has also downplayed the delegate count, something he was stressing just weeks ago.

James Warren, writing at the Atlantic, says the negative ads from the Romney campaign and a super PAC supporting Mr. Romney could create apathy among primary voters and harm the former Massachusetts governor’s prospects in the Windy City.

The political world has designated Illinois as the next “critical” moment in the GOP presidential fracas, until Wednesday morning, when it will be on then-”critical” Louisiana, regardless of what happens in Illinois. And Romney’s justifiable anxiety and comparatively overwhelming resources are on display.

By one television ad executive’s guesstimate, he’s dwarfed seeming chief rival Rick Santorum with a late Chicago-area ad buy in excess of $2 million. That includes roughly $1 million from a pro-Romney Super PAC, said the executive, with Santorum’s buy a pittance and Newt Gingrich nowhere to be seen.

Most of the buy derides Santorum as economically ignorant and a creature of ever-evil Washington, and is generally found on the cable news channels (although there were some ads running during this weekend’s March Madness games). The tactical theory behind that placement is presumably that there will be a modest to low turnout, so one might as well target the political diehards tuned to cable.

Sure, he’s way ahead in delegates to the Republican National Convention. His ads seem to be everywhere on Chicago television and he’s got a savvy organization led by big-name local politicians.

But the former Massachusetts governor has some serious hurdles to overcome: his own persona and an electorate so sick of politics that voters may not be motivated to cast a ballot for anyone.

Romney is having trouble erasing doubts that he’s too stiff, too politically inept and too insensitive to constituents who confront gasoline prices over $4 a gallon every time they drive down a street.

He also faces voters frustrated that the economy is not improving quickly. The jobless rate in Illinois in January was 9.4 percent, down from its 11.4 percent peak two years ago but still well above the national average. And people here just witnessed the circus-like spectacle last week of an unrepentant former Gov. Rod Blagojevich heading to federal prison.

If Santorum is serious about an outright victory, he needs to beat Romney somewhere that Romney is expected to win, like Illinois. With the process nearly halfway over and Romney sitting on twice as many delegates, Santorum is running out of time to unhorse the frontrunner. Illinois may be his last, best chance to change the trajectory of the race.

If Santorum loses in Illinois, he will have to keep traveling down the rhetorical path that Gingrich has already blazed: That Romney is so bad the risk of crippling the party’s frontrunner before a contest with a well-funded incumbent is worthwhile.

If Santorum’s supporters are called not to victory but ensuring a frontrunner’s defeat, many will stay with their man, but the rest will begin to melt away.

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