After all that work, could redistricting change nothing?

Based on some numbers cobbled together by the Washington Post from the 27 states that have already drawn their new congressional maps, it looks as if the fights in state legislatures from sea to shining sea over new congressioanl district boundaries may end up having been a lot of shouting and little ultimate effect. (Their redistricting chart is here.)

That, at least, is based on raw numbers. It looks as though in states where the GOP controls redistricting entirely, they’ll net perhaps 10 seats. In states where Democrats are fully in the driver’s seat, they’ll net three seats. And in the states with an independent, nonpartisan commission drawing maps, Dems will gain four seats and Republicans will lose three. At this rate, that looks like a wash.

Of course, there are a number of states that still have to tinker with their maps, which could change the balance slightly. But there are unlikely to be as many wild swings to one side or another. In many cases, that suggests that the parties are indeed using the opportunity to redraw the maps as an incumbent-protection racket. No surprise there.

And, yes, before anyone weighs in with a comment, we know that things could change based on lawsuits that are out in some of these states in which one party or another controls the redistricting process. We continue to hear that line in Illinois as well. And that’s true. But historically the maps that get overturned look even more egregious than the ones foisted on Illinoisans with little open discussion or debate; expecting them to be overturned here might not be the safest bet to make, which is why you’re starting to see more people in the GOP declare for office with the current maps in place. (That, of course, and the fact that the filing deadline is coming up at the end of November …)

But to have spent all that time — and all that money, not just on drawing the maps but on the lawsuits after — on redistricting and find that ultimately neither side gained an advantage? Looking at this today makes it feel more like Groundhog Day than Halloween.

I’m not quite sure how to feel about that. I’d feel better if we had more competitive congressional districts everywhere, of course, and candidates had to run on their own merits. But this is reality, and the rules of politics apply here, not idealistic wishes.