Glen Farley: Mock draft? Not even going to try

With the seventh pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the New England Patriots select … I Havenoidea.

Glen Farley

With the seventh pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the New England Patriots select …

I Havenoidea.

I’m not sure I could pass a Wonderlic Test; I’m not about to put myself in a position to fail a polygraph test.

Over the course of the upcoming weekend, 252 collegians will be selected by the NFL’s 32 teams – actually, one of them already has been - but I refuse to even attempt to give any type of prognostication the old college try.

Let’s be honest here: If I couldn’t tell you what the New York Giants were going to do in Super Bowl XLII, how can I even feign to know what they’re going to do with the 31st pick in the draft?

For those of you who may have forgotten my pick (and I’d like to), I had the Pats making history by beating the Giants by 10.

Alas, like Asante Samuel, I flat-out dropped the ball.

But at least I played.

Mock draft? Put me on the inactive list.

The mere mention of the two words prompt me to attempt to run away so fast that, at my age, I’m liable to pull a hammy.

The argument I hear is that mock drafts are fun. That’s nice. I’ve also heard that said about skydiving. I’m not about to do that, either.

If nothing else, two decades on the pro football beat have taught me that there is a perfectly rational reason the exercise is called a mock draft.

It’s an absolute joke.

I’ll defer to my new best friends at Cold, Hard Football Facts, who, on their Web site Wednesday, put it this way: “Mock drafts are so inaccurate that we confuse them with the Chicago Bears passing game.

“The only thing that’s a bigger waste of time than a mock draft,” they added, “is actually giving credence to what these totally inaccurate mock drafts offer.”

Now that’s a cold, hard football fact.

Allow me to paraphrase an NFL coach or few when, regarding mock drafts, I say: “You’re asking me to deal in hypotheticals. I don’t deal in hypotheticals.”

Speaking of deals, they’re the very reason the entire foundation of even a well-thought-out mock draft can crumble.

One deal in the top five-to-10 picks or so - one team moving up; another moving out - and one’s best-mocked plans are rendered useless. The complete complexion of the first round can change.

Granted, with the Patriots perched uncharacteristically high in the first round by virtue of a draft-day deal with the San Francisco 49ers last April, there is a far better chance of predicting whom they’ll pick than there was last year when they came away with University of Miami defensive back Brandon Meriweather at 24.

Even the Patriots’ head coach concedes that much.

“It’s a lot easier looking at the top third of the players in that round than trying to sit back in the late 20s and try to figure out what’s going to be there when you pick,” Bill Belichick said. “You’re dealing with a lot less players.”

Even then, with their decision to trade veteran defensive end Jared Allen to Minnesota on Wednesday, the draft needs of the Kansas City Chiefs, who are selecting at No. 5, were altered. The New York Jets, selecting just ahead of the Patriots at No. 6, moved defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson to Denver on Thursday.

So, who will the home team take at No. 7?

That question assumes that the Foxboro firm of Belichick and (vice president of player personnel Scott) Pioli stands pat in the draft.

Which isn’t their style.

Since taking up residence in Foxboro in 2000, that tandem has transformed Gillette Stadium in April into the equivalent of a pair of Ernie Bochs on Washington’s Birthday. They’ll do anything to make a deal.

Dating back to 2000, the Patriots have partaken in 28 April trades, an average of 3.5 per year.

With their second selection a distant 62nd, it would be in perfect keeping with the Patriots’ draft weekend personality for them to trade down from No. 7 to pad their current allotment of eight picks and narrow the gap between selections. In another scenario, if a player they were enamored with began to slide a bit, the Patriots could make a move on up.

Until Tuesday, when the Miami Dolphins went first-and-Long, working out a five-year, $57.5 million deal (with $30 million guaranteed) with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long, I couldn’t have even told you which Long would go No. 1 – the aforementioned Jake or Chris, the defensive end from Virginia.

Do you want a prediction for what you’re really going to see this weekend

I give you this guarantee: You’re going to see some slick-looking hair on Mel Kiper Jr.

Enterprise staff writer Glen Farley can be reached at gfarley@enterprisenews.com

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