GSA press release - Sea-Level Rise3 days ago ... Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warmingGSA Annual Meeting Presentation: Could Estimates of the Rate of Future Sea-Level Rise Be Too Low?Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warming, and University of Colorado geologist Bill Hay has a good idea why..."What's missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up," says Hay. He will be presenting some of these feedbacks in a talk on Sunday, 4 Nov., at the meeting of The Geological Society of America in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA..."There is an Arctic sea ice connection," says Hay, despite the fact that melting sea ice -- which is already in the ocean -- does not itself raise sea level. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, which leads to ice losses in nearby Greenland and northern Canada. When sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic, which is then replaced by inflows of brinier, warmer water from the south. "So it's a big heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic," says Hay. "That's not in any of the models." That warmer water pushes the Arctic toward more ice-free waters, which absorb sunlight rather than reflect it back into space like sea ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, and the warmer things can get. Then there are those gigantic stores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice -- without any help from humans. New data suggests that the sea-level rise in the oceans took place over a few centuries, according to Hay. "You can lose most of the Greenland ice cap in a few hundred years, not thousands, just under natural conditions," says Hay. "There's no telling how fast it can go with this spike of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere." This possibility was brought home this last summer as Greenland underwent a stunning, record-setting melt. The ice streams, lubricated by water at their base, are speeding up...

...Activity of Fuego volcano has been becoming more typical strombolian-style, with explosions less ashy, but richer in incandescent material. During 8-9 Nov, there were 15 strombolian explosions with ash plumes of 3-500 m height and incandescent bombs being ejected to 150-200 m height, lasting 25-40 seconds, and generating avalanches on the upper outer crater flanks. The lava flow toward Ash Canyon was 500 meters long and produced block avalanches that reached the vegetation line.

...Sakurajima volcano continued to be unusually active during 9 Nov with 4 moderate explosions that ejected ash plumes to altitudes of 8-13,000 ft (2.4-4 km).

GSA press release - Sea-Level Rise3 days ago ... Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warmingGSA Annual Meeting Presentation: Could Estimates of the Rate of Future Sea-Level Rise Be Too Low?Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warming, and University of Colorado geologist Bill Hay has a good idea why..."What's missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up," says Hay. He will be presenting some of these feedbacks in a talk on Sunday, 4 Nov., at the meeting of The Geological Society of America in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA..."There is an Arctic sea ice connection," says Hay, despite the fact that melting sea ice -- which is already in the ocean -- does not itself raise sea level. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, which leads to ice losses in nearby Greenland and northern Canada. When sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic, which is then replaced by inflows of brinier, warmer water from the south. "So it's a big heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic," says Hay. "That's not in any of the models." That warmer water pushes the Arctic toward more ice-free waters, which absorb sunlight rather than reflect it back into space like sea ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, and the warmer things can get. Then there are those gigantic stores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice -- without any help from humans. New data suggests that the sea-level rise in the oceans took place over a few centuries, according to Hay. "You can lose most of the Greenland ice cap in a few hundred years, not thousands, just under natural conditions," says Hay. "There's no telling how fast it can go with this spike of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere." This possibility was brought home this last summer as Greenland underwent a stunning, record-setting melt. The ice streams, lubricated by water at their base, are speeding up...

GSA press release - Sea-Level Rise3 days ago ... Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warmingGSA Annual Meeting Presentation: Could Estimates of the Rate of Future Sea-Level Rise Be Too Low?Boulder, Colorado, USA - Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warming, and University of Colorado geologist Bill Hay has a good idea why..."What's missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up," says Hay. He will be presenting some of these feedbacks in a talk on Sunday, 4 Nov., at the meeting of The Geological Society of America in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA..."There is an Arctic sea ice connection," says Hay, despite the fact that melting sea ice -- which is already in the ocean -- does not itself raise sea level. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, which leads to ice losses in nearby Greenland and northern Canada. When sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic, which is then replaced by inflows of brinier, warmer water from the south. "So it's a big heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic," says Hay. "That's not in any of the models." That warmer water pushes the Arctic toward more ice-free waters, which absorb sunlight rather than reflect it back into space like sea ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, and the warmer things can get. Then there are those gigantic stores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice -- without any help from humans. New data suggests that the sea-level rise in the oceans took place over a few centuries, according to Hay. "You can lose most of the Greenland ice cap in a few hundred years, not thousands, just under natural conditions," says Hay. "There's no telling how fast it can go with this spike of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere." This possibility was brought home this last summer as Greenland underwent a stunning, record-setting melt. The ice streams, lubricated by water at their base, are speeding up...

Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)

Yes, this could be a very snowy fall and early winter in the temperate zone.

At Cryosphere Today's Interactive display today is a new record low for this date in the ice coverage of the Arctic. Today's reading is over 350,000 sq. km. below the old sea ice coverage minimum record set for this date in 2009.

The significant danger is in very slow moving jet stream waves. As Dr. Francis points out this could mean that a blizzard scenario could get stuck over a certain area and dump record amounts of snow, amounts we aren't prepared for. At this point we need to ask, is NYC or Washington, DC, ready for a blizzard that lasts for 4 days and drops 15 feet of snow on the city? Then the temps stay well below freezing for 3 weeks? The warming Arctic makes this a possibility. [link to www.wunderground.com]

Re: The monsters wakes up ! Katla Hekla Iceland Dead Zone and rift as uniform system ! A lot of others worldwide !

I post this because it can be interesting and related...

218. percylives01:56 PM GMT em 10 de Novembro de 2012

Quoting Dakster:

Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)

Yes, this could be a very snowy fall and early winter in the temperate zone.

At Cryosphere Today's Interactive display today is a new record low for this date in the ice coverage of the Arctic. Today's reading is over 350,000 sq. km. below the old sea ice coverage minimum record set for this date in 2009.

The significant danger is in very slow moving jet stream waves. As Dr. Francis points out this could mean that a blizzard scenario could get stuck over a certain area and dump record amounts of snow, amounts we aren't prepared for. At this point we need to ask, is NYC or Washington, DC, ready for a blizzard that lasts for 4 days and drops 15 feet of snow on the city? Then the temps stay well below freezing for 3 weeks? The warming Arctic makes this a possibility. [link to www.wunderground.com]

Quoting: Luisport

Thanks!In fact, this feedback mechanism known for a very long time and quite well accounted for in most models. However, an equally important role is also played by a feedback mechanism in the Arctic through the intake due to the melting of large amounts of fresh water, and that this factor is properly taken into account much more difficult than changing the albedo of the system ice and snow-water. Meanwhile, to the violation of the global climate equilibrium, he can play even much more significant role.

What is now happening with the weather everywhere - it's clearly very different from the long-term normal. In my opinion, while it is difficult to say how this will end, only one thing is clear: climate unbalanced and is now running at once all powerful feedback mechanisms that seek to bring the system into a kind of a new point of stability. The bad news is that we have no idea what it will - a new equilibrium that will reached, what exactly it will be different for different parts of the Earth from the fact that there is at present. And hardly have time to understand something in time until the end of the process...

What is now happening with the weather everywhere - it's clearly very different from the long-term normal. In my opinion, while it is difficult to say how this will end, only one thing is clear: climate unbalanced and is now running at once all powerful feedback mechanisms that seek to bring the system into a kind of a new point of stability. The bad news is that we have no idea what it will - a new equilibrium that will reached, what exactly it will be different for different parts of the Earth from the fact that there is at present. And hardly have time to understand something in time until the end of the process...

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27528889

277. LargoFl08:54 PM GMT em 11 de Novembro de 2012

Quoting LargoFl:GFS at 384 hours..same place as Sandy..long time out yetnow IF..this track holds..the officials in the new york area had better come up with NEW stronger building codes..because somehow..the weather patterns for storm tracks have changed, we'll see come next spring just how many storm systems went to the same place..right around NYC..if this new one does hit them thats 3 so far [link to www.wunderground.com]

Re: The monsters wakes up ! Katla Hekla Iceland Dead Zone and rift as uniform system ! A lot of others worldwide !

277. LargoFl08:54 PM GMT em 11 de Novembro de 2012

Quoting LargoFl:GFS at 384 hours..same place as Sandy..long time out yetnow IF..this track holds..the officials in the new york area had better come up with NEW stronger building codes..because somehow..the weather patterns for storm tracks have changed, we'll see come next spring just how many storm systems went to the same place..right around NYC..if this new one does hit them thats 3 so far [link to www.wunderground.com]

"The great thaw: Charting the end of the ice age"... Technically, though, the ice age has not actually ended. The ice has advanced and retreated many times over the past few million years, but some ice has always remained at the poles. Perhaps not for much longer, though. It took just a small increase in sunshine and a gradual, 70-ppm* rise in CO2 to melt the great ice sheets that once covered Eurasia and America. Since the dawn of the industrial age levels have risen by 130 ppm and counting. If we haven't already pumped enough CO2 into the atmosphere to melt the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, we might soon...

November 11 11:20 h (November 11, 17:20 GMT)In the last 24 h, the monitoring system of Popocatepetl registered 97 low to moderate intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash [link to www.cenapred.unam.mx]

Re: The monsters wakes up ! Katla Hekla Iceland Dead Zone and rift as uniform system ! A lot of others worldwide !

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu] On November 10, 2012, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a small ash cloud from Mount Cleveland – otherwise known as Cleveland Volcano – which makes up a large part of a remote and uninhabited island in the east-central Aleutian Island chain. The satellites took note of the small eruption at 11:47 a.m. local time in Alaska (20:47 UTC). The ash was drifting slowly toward the east-northeast from the volcano’s summit. Scientists keep an eye on this volcano, because it can be hazardous to aircraft.

KILAUEA VOLCANO Recent Observations at Kilauea summit: Summit tilt, as recorded by a network of tiltmeters located around the summit caldera, recorded a second weak DI deflation after the 27-hour-long DI event yesterday; the long-term trend since the strong DI inflation on November 8 has been slow inflation. The summit lava lake level dropped a little with the weak deflation yesterday but rose more dramatically during the now-ended period of DI inflation overnight; the lake level is still well below the inner ledge.

Recent Observations at the middle east rift zone vents:Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with flows advancing seaward across the coastal plain. Breakouts also continued low on the pali and on the coastal plain at the base of the pali. Webcam views showed the flow front nearest the coast continued to advance closer to the ocean overnight;if these flow lobes continued to advance at this rate, they could enter the ocean in the next few days.The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

KILAUEA VOLCANO Recent Observations at Kilauea summit: Summit tilt, as recorded by a network of tiltmeters located around the summit caldera, recorded a second weak DI deflation after the 27-hour-long DI event yesterday; the long-term trend since the strong DI inflation on November 8 has been slow inflation. The summit lava lake level dropped a little with the weak deflation yesterday but rose more dramatically during the now-ended period of DI inflation overnight; the lake level is still well below the inner ledge.

Recent Observations at the middle east rift zone vents:Surface flows continued to be active within the abandoned Royal Gardens subdivision, with flows advancing seaward across the coastal plain. Breakouts also continued low on the pali and on the coastal plain at the base of the pali. Webcam views showed the flow front nearest the coast continued to advance closer to the ocean overnight;if these flow lobes continued to advance at this rate, they could enter the ocean in the next few days.The flows were following along the easternmost boundary of Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1534695

andHAZARD ALERT: Lava entering the ocean builds lava deltas. The lava delta and adjacent areas both inland and out to sea are some of the most hazardous areas on the flow field. Frequent delta/bench collapses give little warning, can produce hot rock falls inland and in the adjacent ocean, and can produce damaging local waves. The steam plume produced by lava entering the ocean contains fine lava fragments and an assortment of acid droplets that can be harmful to your health. The rapidly changing conditions near the ocean entry have been responsible for many injuries and a few deaths [link to hvo.wr.usgs.gov]

Sheveluch volcano in Kamchatka produced a moderate explosion with ash rising about 2 km above the volcano to an altitude of 14,000 ft (4.2 km) and drifting south. VAAC Tokyo could not identify the ash on satellite data, but issued an alert.