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David W. Wolfe, a professor of plant and soil ecology at Cornell University and an expert on climate change, said the temperatures this winter appeared to “represent an extreme,” even within the context of climate change. But, he said, the federal climate-zone guides from 1960, 1990 and this year reveal “an extremely fast pace” of change.

“This winter, when they do the final analysis, will be close to an all-time record breaker,” Dr. Wolfe said. “It’s a rare event. But I think it will become less rare.”

That is little solace to farmers, horticulturalists and home gardeners, who have worried about their charges this winter. Rod Dressel Sr., who owns a 300-acre apple orchard in the Hudson Valley, said the buds on his trees were starting to swell. If the trees flower too early, a freeze could kill the blossoms and, with them, the promise of apples this fall.