Marine Weather and TidesPoquott, NY

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:54AM

Sunset 7:05PM

Monday March 19, 2018 10:24 PM EDT (02:24 UTC)

Moonrise 8:21AM

Moonset 9:25PM

Illumination 11%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

ANZ300 734 Pm Edt Mon Mar 19 2018 Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds from the northwest through tonight. An area of low pressure will approach from the southwest on Tuesday. Stronger low pressure will then develop off the southern mid atlantic coast Tuesday night, move slowly southeast of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and pass to the east on Thursday. High pressure will then build from southern canada on Friday.

Synopsis
High pressure builds down from south central canada into
Tuesday as a coastal low develops off the mid atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning, then tracks east as it weakens. Another
stronger coastal low develops along the mid-atlantic coast
Tuesday night, then lifts northeast to south of nova scotia by
Thursday morning, then into the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday night. High pressure will then build from
southern canada from Friday through Saturday. Another storm
system will may impact the area late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The forecast is mostly on track. Biggest changes were made to
hourly dewpoints as they've been running about 5 degrees lower
than the previous forecast.

Weak northern stream ridging builds in tonight keeping things
dry. Will see an increase in high clouds from SW to NE through
the night. Lows tonight will be around 5-10 degrees below
normal.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Details are coming in to better focus on a couple of coastal
lows that will impact the tri-state Tuesday-Wednesday night.

The first low is in response to a 700-500 hpa shortwave being
sheared by a cutoff low over canadian maritimes. As a result the
low weakens as it exits the mid-atlantic coast, so only expect
light warm advection induced precipitation over mainly the S 1 2
of the area. It does appear that a warm nose works in
around just above 850 hpa so do expect some sleet to mix in with
a snow rain mix (rain mixed in mainly due to march Sun angle).

Expect any accumulations on Tuesday to be limited to mainly far
sw parts of the cwa
this warm nose lingers over most of the area into Wednesday
morning (except for maybe far NW zones), so do expect sleet to
limit accumulations Tuesday night, limiting them to generally
less than 1 inch.

The second coastal low forms off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday
night in response to a combination of a shortwave diving se
from the canadian plains and another shortwave coming in from
the four corners region. As the coastal low deepens Wednesday,
it taps into colder low level air to the north, coupled with
dynamic cooling, should change the precipitation to all snow
across the region. There is the potential for a period of heavy
wet snow across the region from late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday evening. In addition gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph could
combine to bring down tree limbs and power lines. The snow
tapers off from W to E Wednesday night as the coastal low pulls
away to the ne.

As a result have issued a winter storm watch for the region from
6pm Tuesday-midnight Wednesday night for nyc NE nj lower hudson
valley for 5-11 inches of snow and from 4am Wednesday-6am

Thursday for long island and S ct for 4 to 9 inches of snow.

Long term Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds into the region from southern canada on
Thursday, providing generally dry conditions through the first half
of the weekend. Some weak forcing may spark off a few snow showers
or flurries late Saturday with an upper level low off the new
england coast, but not enough confidence to put it in the forecast
as of yet. However, the bigger story will be the potential for
another low pressure system to affect the region for the second half
of the weekend.

There are significant differences in the model solutions, both in
the deterministic and ensemble models, for the second half of the
weekend and the potential low pressure system to affect the area.

The main differences stem from orientation of a strong 1043 mb
surface high pressure over southern canada Saturday that digs all
the way south into florida and the southeast us coast. The 19 12z
ecmwf pinches off a piece of this high Saturday night, giving an
area of low pressure developing over the mid-west a path between the
two highs to move toward our region. The 19 12z GFS does not pinch
off this high as notably as the ecmwf, with more of a cold air
damming signature noted on Sunday, when the ECMWF pushes the low off
the carolina coast, with our region on the northern fringes of the
precipitation field. The low is then forecast to pass well south of
our area and then east out to sea Sunday night. The GFS suppress the
low well south and weakens it. This latest model run of the ECMWF is
more in line with the gfs. Given forecast uncertainty, will not make
much in the way of changes.

Proximity of the low to the coast will determine precipitation
types. If the ECMWF is to be believed, the track is a bit different
to previous storms, at least with its approach to the area, with a
more west to east track, then head northeast east, as opposed to
development or redevelopment off the mid-atlantic coast and heading
northeast. However, it will be cold enough for some snow.

Temperatures during the long term will average below normal with a
persistent northwesterly flow.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure gives way to a series of low passing to the south
and east of the firs, the first Tuesday evening, and then
another on Wednesday.

Vfr. Light northerly winds will become NE overnight and then
gradually ramp up during the day Tuesday. Gusts to around 20 kt
are expected at the coastal terminals in the afternoon and
increasing to 25-30 kt Tuesday night. Inland gusts will be a bit
weaker.

There is a chance of light wintry mix developing Tuesday
evening. Confidence is too low at this time to mention in tafs.

The brunt of the precipitation is currently forecast to develop
on Wednesday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations

EDIT(on/off) &nbspHelpNOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)

Disclaimer:The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.