When political push comes to shove next month, a handful of communities, mostly in southwestern Connecticut, will decide the Republican primary for governor.

Fourteen of the party's 22 highest-voting towns and cities in the 2010 primary are located here, including five of the six communities where Republicans cast more than 2,000 ballots four years ago.

They're educated voters, affluent and attuned to important state policy issues that could give the primary victor sorely needed momentum as the fall campaign shifts focus to the re-election bid of first-term Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy.

Four years ago, there was a three-way gubernatorial primary that drew less than 30 percent turnout among Republicans (less than 25 percent of eligible Democrats voted). Tom Foley, the Greenwich millionaire, took the region, and the state, in that primary. The importance of Republican strongholds remains this year, as Senate Minority Leader John McKinney, of Fairfield, pursues his underdog bid against Foley, who lost to Malloy in 2010.

More Information

Statewide voter registration:

801,702 unaffiliated704,561 Democrats399,815 Republicans

Source: Secretary of the State Denise Merrill

Foley's home base of Greenwich is important, as is McKinney's Fairfield turf. But the race may come down to support in Milford, Stratford, Norwalk, Shelton, Trumbull, Danbury, Ridgefield, Newtown and New Milford -- towns with high Republican registration. The crucial swing city is Stamford, where the 4,048 Republican primary votes in the 2010 primary were the most cast in one community statewide.

"Over a period of time, it is clear that Fairfield County is the critical battleground in a Republican primary," said Joseph J. McGee, vice president for public policy and programs for the Stamford-based Business Council of Fairfield County and a political analyst.

McGee predicted that about 125,000 Connecticut Republicans -- equal to the population of Stamford -- will pick their gubernatorial candidates on Aug. 12.

In the 2010 primary, then-Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, of Stamford, received 46,989 votes; Simsbury businessman Oz Griebel got 22,390; and Foley won with 50,792, out of more than 126,000 votes cast.

"You're going to see 4th District interest, where John McKinney has strong name recognition," said retiring House Minority Leader Lawrence F. Cafero Jr., R-Norwalk.

He predicted that a low turnout will again emerge, maybe even lower than the statewide 29.76 percent of Republican voters of four years back.

Adam Wood, chief of staff for Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch, who has managed 4th District congressional campaigns, said last week that Foley and McKinney have to anticipate frustratingly low turnouts. And with Foley abandoning his self-funding strategy of 2010 -- when he spent $11 million of his personal fortune only to lose to Malloy by 6,404 votes -- to participate this year, along with McKinney, in the state's voluntary public-finance system, he will have less to spend for the primary. Foley has $1.5 million. McKinney, who applied for the program with his running mate, David Walker of Bridgeport, will also have $1.5 million, but Walker will use a portion of it.

"Fewer resources is going to challenge all the campaigns to maximize their effectiveness," Wood said. "There aren't a large number of places in the state with high Republican registration."

While Foley had a hefty lead in the most recent Quinnipiac University Poll, Wood noted that both Foley and McKinney are very well known in the western half of the state.

"This is the most-Republican district in the state," Wood said, adding that Foley's lead could evaporate in the final two weeks of the campaign and the race might come down to absentee ballots from vacationing GOP voters. But overall, it's tough challenging the party-endorsed Foley.

"Statewide there's a big gap in name recognition," said Wood, who managed the campaign of Diane Farrell, the former Democratic Westport first selectwoman who lost to then-U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays in 2004 and 2006.

Although Milford and Stratford are in the 3rd Congressional District, the bulk of the swing towns and cities are in the 4th District of Fairfield County and the 5th District of Litchfield County.

Rose, whose latest book is called "Connecticut's Fourth Congressional District: History, Politics and the Maverick Tradition," said in an interview that parts of Litchfield County that fit the Gold Coast demographic will also be crucial to the primary winner.

He said McKinney, whose late father Stewart B. McKinney was a popular longtime 4th District congressman until his death in May 1987, could reap both name recognition and added support.

"There may be an element of nostalgia for John McKinney from people who remember Stew," Rose said. "There are some who look at the son and say `he reminds me of the father a lot.' "

Rose said McKinney seems to be gathering some campaign strength in his new TV ads.

McKinney is also coming off a strong showing last week in a debate with Foley sponsored by The Hartford Courant and Fox 61.

"He's definitely, behind Foley, but I still would say there's an element of McKinney support there," Rose said. "Especially among older Republicans, where age correlates to voting in the primary. Still, Foley is the convention's nominee and he has a number of activists. Once in a while the convention-endorsed candidate doesn't win a primary."

McGee, who served as Stewart McKinney's congressional chief of staff from 1971 to 1978, stressed that Fairfield County will be very important to the eventual winner. But if they split the region, then other sections of the state may increase in importance, such as Waterbury, West Hartford, Bloomfield, Glastonbury, Manchester and Farmington, communities where more than 1,500 Republicans cast votes in the 2010 primary.

"Eastern Connecticut does not have huge Republican numbers, but they become important," McGee said. "Northwestern Connecticut, which doesn't have huge Republican turnouts become important. I think the McKinney-Foley race is much closer than people believe. My gut instincts say that 125,000 people, maybe, turn out. The bulk of the voters are in Fairfield County. It's a highly concentrated, one-month campaign and the winner will be the one to get the vote out."

Malloy, who became the first Democratic governor since 1991 when he won the squeaker over Foley four years ago, agrees.

"My read of the situation is that the contest has not generated a lot of excitement," Malloy said in a brief interview last week. "So I think what's key is whoever turns out their vote. I think it's going to be very low turnout. Whoever motivates their base in a very low-turnout election wins. That's what happens. There's not as much excitement this go round as there was four years ago, clearly," he said with a knowing smile. "I'm watching, observing and we'll be ready on the 13th, I assure you."