POSITIONING ZAID IBRAHIM

Hulu Selangor, a crucial barometer for BN and PR

Written by Chua Sue-Ann

Thursday, 15 April 2010 23:10

KUALA KUBU BHARU: Campaigning for the upcoming Hulu Selangor by-election officially begins on Saturday, April 15, but the intense preparations by the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalitions point to the massive battle in store for the next general election.

The vast Hulu Selangor constituency in northern Selangor, bordering Pahang and Perak, had been a BN stronghold up until the March 8, 2008 general election.
In 2008, Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) Datuk Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad wrested the seat from MIC deputy president Datuk G Palanivel, the four-term MP for the constituency, with a narrow 198-vote win.

Zainal Abidin’s death on March 25 paved the way for this 10th by-election since March 2008.

BN had lost control of the Selangor state administration in March 2008 and has set its sights on reclaiming the state. In some ways, the gambit begins with the contest for the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat.

The stage is now set for a tantalising clash between Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, a political “heavyweight” who quit his cabinet post and has thrown in his lot with PKR, and a newcomer in MIC information chief P Kamalanathan.

Zaid was the Kota Bharu MP from 2004 to 2008 on an Umno ticket, and his political experience includes a brief stint as minister in charge of legal affairs and judicial reform in former premier Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s cabinet.

Zaid resigned from his ministerial post in September 2008 protesting the government’s use of the Internal Security Act to detain civilians. In December 2008, Umno sacked Zaid from the party for attending opposition events and he joined PKR in June 2009.

The by-election can also be seen as a litmus test for the PR-led Selangor state government, and may indicate whether its policies have won hearts and minds in the semi-rural constituency and possibly the state at large.

Zaid could ride on the Selangor government’s popular policies, particularly in the administration’s granting of land titles and its free water policy, among other things.
This could provide some counterweight to BN’s campaign, which is emphasising the federal government’s efforts to bring development and ensure stability in the country since Merdeka.

Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim has been appointed to lead PKR’s campaign in Hulu Selangor and has focused his efforts in the constituency.

PKR is also betting on Zaid to boost its parliamentary presence, which has taken a beating with the resignation of four MPs who cited unhappiness with the party leadership.

Kamalanathan, who lives in nearby Rawang, is likely to bank on his credentials as a local boy and a fresh face for MIC and the ruling coalition.
A win for Kamalanathan would return some weight to MIC, after its dismal outing in the 12th general election cast a shadow on its role as a contributing partner in BN.

In the bigger picture, a victory for MIC and BN would also be counted as a seal of approval for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s one-year administration and his 1Malaysia concept that emphasises unity.

At least two local independent candidates will join the fray, adding further colour to the contest.

The first independent candidate to make known his intention to run is former Hulu Selangor MIC division deputy chief VS Chandran, who is banking on his background as a local and Felda settler.

Chandran told Bernama that he had risen to the occasion to champion the cause of some 1,000 Felda settlers at Felda Sungai Tenggi and Gugusan Felda Hulu Selangor which has 6,000 voters.

Another local businessman, Johan Mohd Diah, also recently announced his intention to join the fray, while other potential independent candidates could still emerge just before or on nomination day itself.

While the race for Hulu Selangor officially flags off after nomination day on Saturday, temperatures have been running high over the past few weeks in one of the most intense by-elections since the 2008 general election.

The unhurried life of the constituents has been jolted by the sudden presence of politicians from both sides of the parliamentary divide as well as party workers who have set up camp, well ahead of the official eight-day campaigning period before polling on April 25.

BN leaders and ministers have been making their rounds and the Selangor state government has been focusing on the area, addressing local concerns.
PR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and other opposition figures have been giving nightly ceramah and dinners across the constituency, speaking on national issues.

However, it remains to be seen if voters are giving ear to stirring concerns like reform or whether they would vote for development projects that will take shape before their eyes.

The Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency has 64,500 registered voters, including 799 postal voters. The constituency also encompasses vast tracts of plantations, Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) schemes and orang asli settlements.
The three state constituencies in Hulu Selangor — Hulu Bernam, Kuala Kubu Bharu and Batang Kali — are held by BN representatives, all of whom won with comfortable majorities over their PR opponents.

Zainal Abidin, however, had mixed results in Batang Kali and Hulu Bernam, both of which are Malay-majority state constituencies.

In Batang Kali, Zainal Abidin beat Palanivel by a majority of 1,789 votes but lost to Palanivel by some 1,480 votes in Hulu Bernam.

The news portal opined that it was the victory in the Batang Kali streams which helped Zainal Abidin win the parliamentary seat. Interestingly, the Hulu Selangor constituency recorded 1,466 spoilt votes, which could have been the deciding factor in Zainal Abidin’s victory.

Given that Malays make up the majority with 34,020 voters (52.7%) in the Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency, both PR and BN are expected to test their support amongst the Malay community by carefully balancing arguments on the need to protect the position of the Malays and the call for equality among the races.

The 26,964 Chinese voters in Hulu Selangor constitute 26.3% of the electorate, the 12,453 Indian voters account for 19.3% while other races represent 1.7% of total voters. An estimated 30% of Hulu Selangor voters reside in the nearby urban areas, and are not traditionally considered a vote bank for BN.

However, it has been over two years since the March 2008 general election, and that is indeed a long time in politics.