Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach, has spoken favorably about proposed legislation that would allow many of those brought to the country illegally as children to remain after DACA’s scheduled end next March.

President Donald Trump’s termination of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival policy is expected to spur Latino — and possibly Asian — voter turnout next year, which would make reelection more difficult for Southern California’s six Republican Congress members already targeted by Democrats.

Two of the targeted members — Fullerton’s Ed Royce and Laguna Beach’s Mimi Walters — have spoken favorably of proposed legislation that would allow many of those brought to the country illegally as children to remain after DACA’s scheduled end next March. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, indicated he might also support such legislation.

But even that might not protect those House members from the election repercussions of Trump’s decision.

“It will boost turnout for sure,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, a UC Riverside political scientist specializing in immigration policy. Latinos, who traditionally lag well behind other ethnicities in mid-term election participation, overwhelmingly favor Democrats when they do vote.

“The question is not how they’ll vote, but whether they’ll vote,” Ramakrishnan said. “I think we’ll see a lot of marches in the year ahead. I think we’ll see higher than usual mid-term turnout not just from Latinos but from all young voters, many of whom have grown up with the Dreamers who will be subject to deportation.”

He noted that one in eight Asian immigrants in this California is here without proper documentation, which has contributed to Asian American voters also being particularly sensitive to the issue.

Trump has called on Congress to address immigration during the six months before DACA expires. Already, there are proposals being discussed that would continue to provide legal protections for DACA recipients. Passage of such a measure could dilute the ballot-box damage to vulnerable Republicans, but Ramakrishnan and other experts doubt such a bill will win approval.

In 2013, a measure that would have provided a path to citizenship for many of those in the country illegally passed the Senate with bipartisan support. But House Republicans balked. While there were enough House Republicans to join with Democrats to pass the measure, Republican House Speaker John Boehner declined to bring the matter to a vote because a majority of Republicans opposed it.

Current House Speaker Paul Ryan, also a Republican, has spoken in favor of passing a measure to protect DACA recipients. But Ramakrishnan and UC Irvine political scientist Louis DeSipio are among those who don’t see Ryan allowing a vote on the measure without the support of a majority of Republicans.

“In the past, (Ryan) indicated he would not do this with immigration legislation,” said DeSipio, who specializes in ethnic politics. “I would say that it would be wise to do so, to put this issue behind Republicans for a while and to protect Republicans in 2018 swing districts. But he would certainly pay a price with his caucus.”

That price, according to Ramakrishnan, could likely be his leadership post.

“A lot of Congress members live in very Republican districts and they are most worried about being challenged in the primary by conservatives who are very strong on the immigration issue, including being opposed to DACA,” Ramakrishnan said.

Where they stand

The six targeted Republican districts are key to Democrats’ drive to capture the 24 seats needed to gain control of the House in next year’s election. In terms of ethnic voters, Royce’s district — which straddles the Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino county lines — is particularly vulnerable. Republicans have less than a 2-percentage point advantage in voter registration while 25 percent of registered voters are Latino and 21 percent are Asian.

But Royce was relatively quick to indicate his support for allowing DACA recipients to remain in the country legally.

“We should not deny residence to children who have only known America as their home, positively contributed to this great country and passed a background check,” Royce said in a Monday statement.

“Congress should work to ensure their residency so that they can continue to contribute to our community and strengthen our nation,” she said.

A statement from Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, indicated he may support such a measure as well, calling for “a sense of compassion for those who were brought here in their childhood years ago and wish to stay as productive members of our communities.”

But another targeted Republican, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa, endorsed Trump’s decision to end DACA, created by then-President Barack Obama via executive order. He also sounded less supportive than Royce and Walters when it comes to passing legislation to legalize DACA recipients.

“Legalizing their status sent a message throughout the world that our doors were open to share all the benefits accorded American citizens,” he said in a statement. “As the president suggested, it is now up to Congress, and we must face the issue squarely and fearlessly.”

The other two targeted Republicans — Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Rep. Duncan Hunter of Lakeside — also supported Trump’s decision and agreed that Congress is the proper place to address the issue. However, statements from their offices did not clearly indicate whether they would support legislation allowing DACA recipients to remain in the country legally.

Hillary Clinton won five of the six targeted Southern California GOP districts last year, with Hunter’s being the exception.

Democrats — including most in Congress and most if not all of the more than three dozen Democratic challengers to the six Republicans — largely oppose Trump’s action and support legislation legalizing DACA recipients.

“Ending DACA is cruel, immoral and incredibly short-sighted,” said UC Irvine law professor Dave Min, the son of Korean immigrants and one of seven Democrats challenging Walters.

Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, noted that there are other factors particular to each district likely to play key roles in next year’s races. While Royce’s district is more competitive on paper than Issa’s, Royce has repeatedly cruised to reelection by more than 10-percentage points. Issa is more controversial because of his reputation as an Obama attack dog and last year won reelection by just 0.6 percentage points.

Hunter is considered vulnerable in large measure because of reports that he is under federal investigation for the misuse of campaign funds. And Rohrabacher has drawn scrutiny because of his meetings with Russians and with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

“It is unlikely that any California Republican will lose because of DACA alone,” said Pitney.

But Pitney agreed the issue could cost Republicans votes. And in terms of issues with the potential to affect all competitive races, DACA is likely to be in the mix, according to Ramakrishnan.

“Health care and immigration — those will be the two big issues in the election,” Pitney said. “Unless there’s a war.”

Martin Wisckol has been the Orange County Register's politics writer and weekly Buzz columnist since 1998, and now writes about politics for all papers in the Southern California Newspaper Group. He was given the title of politics editor in 2011 to reflect his expanded role in planning political coverage. Wisckol started his career writing about surfing and jazz, but has written predominantly about government and politics since 1985. He has held reporting positions in his hometown of San Diego, as well as in Detroit, Jacksonville and Miami. Along the way, he has put in extended stints in Japan, South America and Switzerland. His work has been honored by the Society of Professional Journalists, the National Headliner Awards, the California Newspaper Publishers Association and the Florida Press Club, among others. He continues lifelong pursuits of surfing, traveling and playing guitar.

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