Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Allegations of Tymoshenko’s treason have materialized. At least, that’s how NUNS, the spurned party, may think. On Tuesday, the Orange Coalition failed to pass a resolution on Georgia, and instead saw an ad hoc alliance between BYuT, the Party of Regions, and the Communist Party. The three joined forces to simplify the impeachment procedure and strip President Yushchenko of key prerogatives.

Orchestrated by PM Tymoshenko of BYuT, the move may outbitch President Yushchenko’s own not-so-secret ambition: a grand coalition between his loyalists and a PRU splinter group — his reelection elixir.

If so, it marks the coming out of the closet for a love and hate triangle in which BYuT and NUNS, perpetually on the verge of divorce, always gave the Party of Regions the glad eye.

That gives us the following Kodak moment of the battleground: Tymoshenko, BYuT, Medvedchuk, and the majority of the PRU, and the Communists on one side, and Yushchenko, NUNS, Baloha, and Chernovetsky on the other. The angels must be weeping at the sight of such “pragmatic” matches made in…Hollywood!

In this divine comedy, Kuchma's chief of staff Medvedchuk plays the “missing link” role connecting Immaculate Tymoshenko and the infernal forces of the Kremlin, as many evolution theorists believe. Lyubov Sliska, Vice Speaker of the Russian Duma, has praised Tymoshenko’s evolution, saying that if she stays the course, she will become president. What a heartbreaker for silly fools like me who supported her in parliamentary elections.

BYuT claims it “sees no alternative to the Orange Coalition.” Echoing this love ballad, some optimists dismiss yesterday’s vote as a one-night stand, noting the fact that unholy alliances in the Rada featuring Tymoshenko have appeared before.

Meanwhile, that same night, NUNS held an emergency meeting and decided to pull out of the Orange Coalition. The decision will take effect 11 days after it was made.

With the notable exception of Interior Minister Lutsenko, Cabinet ministers representing NUNS did not attend the Wednesday meeting of the Cabinet. Lutsenko blames the crisis on Baloha’s brinkmanship and believes that the only way to save the Coalition is to fire Baloha, Yushchenko’s chief of staff.

As NUNS and BYuT exchanged recriminations, Yushchenko came to the Rada to announce that a de facto coalition has been formed between BYuT, the Party of Regions, and the Communist Party. He accused Tymoshenko of setting up a dictatorship and gave the Verkhovna Rada 30 days to finalize the freshly minted coalition or face dissolution.

In a UP article on the BYuT-PRU-CPU hookup, Serhiy Leshchenko and Mustafa Nayem quote a BYuT MP who calls it “safe sex.” Safe for whom? It may be safe for prima domina Tymoshenko, but is it safe for Ukraine?

As Ukrainians wrangle over their country’s destination, Old Europe doesn’t seem to welcome the idea of NATO membership for them, even if they wanted it.

Even if America elects McCain, it remains unclear whether Ukraine will get a welcome from NATO. Here’s a romantic “what if” article on how things would be different had Ukraine retained its nuclear deterrent.

Washington wanted us without nukes. We gave up our nukes. And what did we get for those nukes? We got crooks. We got those IMF loans and a bunch of overnight high net worth individuals who owe their fortunes to our Latin American-style income distribution. We got politicians who serve their interests and live in luxury while the country's population continues to decline, from 52 million in 1991 to a little over 46 million in 2008.

Many in the West still call us “the Ukraine” and view us as part of Russia. When I read articles like this one, I wonder if Old Europe would even fight for the former Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltics, if they were attacked by Evil Empire 2.

Elmer, when Kuchma sold Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal — the world’s third-largest — for IMF loans, I was 14. At that time, I was a kid studying in a special English class, trying to get the best knowledge I could. I steeped myself in American books. My parents did not vote for Kuchma. Nor did they steal anything.

Khodorkovsky certainly came across as a holy martyr in the eyes of Western investors who owned Yukos ADRs. But his "success story" doesn’t quite measure up to Bill Gates’s. Nor does his political imprisonment resemble the fate of the people who had worked and died as slaves in the Gulag. Khodorkovsky got in trouble when the Kremlin considered him a threat and singled him out so that similarly minded oligarchs could learn their lessons

Here’s an interesting discussion between US liberals and conservatives on what America would get from letting Ukraine into NATO.

Now that we have no nukes and little hope of NATO membership, we only have ourselves to rely on in dealing with Russia. The West can do some talking, but when Hurricane Vladimir comes, we’re out on our own.

I feel somewhat attracted to conservatives on US foreign policy toward Ukraine, but my estimates of Ukraine’s admission to NATO remain just as conservative.

Taras, you are absolutely right about Khodorkovsky - the point is, of course, that if Ukrainian oligarchs think that by buddying up to Vlad Dracul Putin they're going to get some sort of safe haven with roosha, they have another think coming.

They will wind up in Siberia, like Khodorkovsky, because there are no guarantees with a maniac like Putin or with roosha.

One ought to stand up for Ukraine in order to avoid any doubt, and in order to avoid a war.

Unfortunately, I think you are right - the only ones capable of foresight and planning in Ukraine are the "political elite" - but only with respect to the non-stop chess game for the next elections.

That is a very narrow, limited field, and while the "political elite" are playing their chess games, they are insanely ravaging the country with their own food fights - to the huge detriment of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, if the people don't stand up for their own country, before any war, they can't expect anyone else to do so for them. It doesn't work that way.