In
Yemen, there are far more significant sources of conflict with a far greater
potential for escalation and loss of life than imminent terrorist attacks by Al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

With the
evacuation of American and British government personnel from Yemen in recent
days due to intercepts regarding imminent terrorist attacks by Al Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula, it would be logical to conclude that terrorism is Yemen’s
greatest impediment to peace and stability. It is not. In fact, there are far
more significant sources of conflict with a far greater potential for escalation
and loss of life.

Most
notably, the country is embarking upon a National Dialogue process intended to
produce a constitution as well as an elite bargain capable of keeping the
nation intact. The future of southern Yemen – formerly an independent country prior
to 1990 – is one of the key issues at hand along with never-before-seen levels
of sectarian tensions and violence. This piece addresses each of these issues
in turn.

A young man takes a picture at the scene of a suicide bombing in Sana'a that was intended to kill Yemen's Defence Minister, September 2012. Demotix/Luke Somers. All rights reserved.

The Southern question

The
southern population, long egged on by elites hoping to gain power in an
independent state of South Yemen (or “Southern Arabia”), has become radicalized
to such an extent that the situation is combustible. Nearly the entirety of the
south’s population strongly supports the Southern Movement, known as AlHiraak
al-Janubi (or simply as Hiraak),
and nearly all demand secession for their region rather than half-measures such
as decentralization or federalism. And the fervor has escalated, in no small
part thanks to Yemeni security forces’ increasing tendency to shoot live
ammunition into crowds of reportedly peaceful southern demonstrators in Aden,
in particular. While concrete figures are hard to come by, most media counts
suggest that Yemen’s security forces had, in the first four months of 2013,
shot and killed as many southern protesters as they had in all of 2012.

Protestors
don’t just chant. They throw rocks and block roads several days a week. Parents
and others are so committed to the cause that they have not balked when
Southern Movement demonstrations force schools to close two or three days every
week. This is not a movement that will go anywhere or which will be appeased.
Many are simply waiting for the day that another shooting of Hiraak protesters sends the south into
full-blown rebellion. If it does, there is little doubt that the
northern-dominated military will be able to subjugate a region which has relative
little weaponry and comparatively few tribal militias.

But,
while the south will not succeed in breaking away from the remainder of Yemen,
it will pull the country into chaos. The oil revenues on which the central
government relies will dry up overnight due to conflict in the south (which is
home to much of the country’s oil and oil pipelines). Public sector spending
will be transferred overwhelmingly towards the country’s security services, and
progress towards anti-corruption, democratization, decentralization, and
political legitimization will be set back by at least a decade. Western aid agencies and foreign firms
will increasingly flee the country, further disrupting an economy which is
already in shambles.

To boot,
the human rights abuses likely to occur in violently pacifying the south,
particularly urban areas such as Aden and Mukallah, will lead many in the west
to sever its ties with the country and its factionalized-but-capable military.
Without a credible state, oil and gas revenues, or an internationally-supported
military, Yemen will risk becoming a fully “ungoverned space” where, indeed,
terrorism will be able to flourish even more than it has in the past. The
international community will, when the dust settles, find itself tasked with
not just bolstering a fledgling state but with attempting to reconstitute one,
as in Somalia or post-2001 Afghanistan.

Sectarian tensions and violence

Meanwhile,
looking beyond “the Southern Question”, as it is known, Yemen increasingly
faces one of the few security and humanitarian calamities it had previously managed
to avoid: sectarianism. External support, particularly from Saudi Arabia, for
conservative Salafist and Wahhabist groups in Yemen has re-shaped the religious
landscape. These orthodox Islamist groups have pushed a social, cultural, and
political agenda – and labeled Yemen’s Shias as infidels. Zaydi Shias, who long
saw themselves more in ethnic or cultural than sectarian terms, are responding
to this threat in a relatively predictable manner: taking greater pride in
their identity and seeking to defend it using all means necessary.

The
Al-Houthi militia/movement, which has been actively promoting Zaydi culture and
interests in Yemen for more than a quarter century, has increasingly responded
to Sunni provocation. The Houthis control much of northern Yemen and, despite
six rounds of conflict with the Yemeni military and one with the Saudis, this shows
little sign of weakening. In fact it appears to be growing, deepening its
inroads in major central cities such as Taiz and Sana’a. Iran, which practices
a fundamentally different form of Shia Islam than Yemen’s Shias, has nonetheless
been happy to facilitate the rise of sectarian tensions and support members of
the Houthi movement.

The
Yemeni people, while long tolerant of varied religious groups, are increasingly
looking for a sense of purpose and meaning among the chaos, poverty, and
conflict they encounter. The desire for a sense of identity is particularly
strong among the roughly two-thirds of Yemenis who are under the age of 25. Sectarian
groups and their allied militias – along with foreign and home-grown terrorist
movements such as Al Qaeda and Ansar al-Sharia – offer not only an
identity and sense of belonging but also payments and weapons to their fighters.
They will continue to grow, and stability in Yemen and the rest of southern
Arabia will feel their effects in the coming years. Sectarian tensions will
escalate, and further conflict and violence will result, particular as the
country approaches presidential and parliamentary elections in or after
February 2014.

Terrorism
remains a major challenge in Yemen. Despite the end of large-scale insurgent
violence in and around Abyan, where Al
Qaeda and its affiliates held a large swathe of territory for 14 months,
tribal and governmental forces have continued to square off against terrorist
fighters week in and week out in southern Marib governorate and other parts of
the country. Furthermore, broader instability arising from the Southern
Movement and sectarianism will create openings which Al Qaeda and its affiliates – including members of the
Somalia-based Al Shabaab – will
exploit to the fullest extent feasible. However, terrorist groups themselves do
not pose nearly the same threats to security as southern and sectarian
tensions. Greater international resources, attention and expertise must be
mobilized to address these challenges. With a long record of winner-takes-all
politics, Yemen’s leaders are unable to understand the threat these challenges
pose – and several have sought to promote internal tensions as a way of
propelling their careers. Hence, the challenges are ones which members of the
international community must engage with and address before they lead to the
sorts of widespread internal conflict which Yemen has not seen in its recent
history.

About the author

Steven
A. Zyck is a research fellow with the Overseas Development Institute’s (ODI)
Humanitarian Policy Group in London, and Co-Editor of
Stability: International Journal of Security & Development (www.stabilityjournal.org). He has been
conducting research and advising international stakeholders in Yemen for much
of this year.

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