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8.3.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report

I’m not going to spend the entire commentary on the Presidential race, but I do have to ask the question...have you ever in your life seen the media so incredibly biased in your lifetime? I mean seriously folks, you can’t watch a single program without someone bringing up what they consider to be another Trump Gaffe. Even when Trump says something with no bad intent, it’s twisted to show him as a diabolical madman not capable to even run a kindergarten. I’ve never seen anything like it. If you thought there was the slightest inkling of honesty in reporting, or no bias...well, that’s shot to hell.

Yet I ask a simple question. On Tuesday Obama said that Trump is “woefully unprepared for the Presidency. How was Obama prepared? A junior Senator that no one ever heard of from Chicago, ends up President of the US and look at the results. Unbelievable. 20 trillion in debt, our Healthcare system a shambles, our Supreme Court denying the Constitution, our racial divide larger than any time in my life, etc. etc. I could go on for ever.

Once again let me be perfectly clear here. I do NOT think Trump is some knight on a white horse that will solve all problems. Not at all. See, to get things done he’s got to have people that will help him. I have strong doubts that the establishment Republicans, nor ANYONE from the other aisle is going to help him get anything done. So why vote for him at all? Because in a lot of ways he’s all we have.

In my view, a Hillary Presidency will bring the end of the 2nd Amendment as we know it. Hillary is on record saying that she’d like to see a law where the gun manufacturer is legally liable if someone uses one of their guns in a criminal act. REALLY? The manufacturer?? Will she hold Ford accountable if I run someone over in my F150? Nope. Just gun manufacturers. Oh and she’s for a 25% increase in gun taxes. Oh and regulating ammo sales to a particular number per month. Oh and ...so on.

Can you imagine the Supreme Court with her in charge? I shudder. How about the war department? She’s had NO problem getting us in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. How do you feel about going head to head with Russia and/or China? I want no part of it. With her...it’s coming. I simply hope enough people have enough smarts to understand that the media is owned by Hillary. The military industrial complex is owned by Hillary. Wall Street is owned by Hillary. And if you think the middle class is in deep doo-doo now, just wait till her 100 days to an open border kick in. Wait to see the flood of North African and Syrian “so called” refugees come in. Trump is simply our only chance at taking a pause and maybe reassessing this thing we still call America.

See, I told you I wouldn't run the page with Presidential race stuff....

Okay, most of you know that the market has been hitting all time highs for quite a while now, based on nothing more than Central banks buying stocks, and printing QE money that ends up in Wall Street. If the market was priced according to true economic activity, we’d be at DOW 8,000 not DOW 18,000. One of the constant questions I get is this... Bob, if it is truly the Central banks printing trillions, and that’s why the market is up, can’t it last for ever? Is there any evidence of something like this in the past? What’s to stop them?

Lets start with this one...has this happened before? Not really. While there’s been times when a certain nation has gone banana’s and printed its way to destruction (think Zimbabwe, or Weimar Republic) there’s never been a globally coordinated printing of fake money on a scale like this. So right off the bat we have a big issue. This has never been done before and therefore NO ONE knows how it’s going to end. But the fact is that trees don’t grow to the moon, Mountains don’t rise to the sun and markets will not rise for ever. Alfred said “debts that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid”. That’s true. I suggest that market’s that can’t rise for ever, won’t rise for ever. Yet how it all ends, is a complete mystery.

Anyone that tells you they know exactly how this show is going to end, is either Mr. Rothschild himself, or he’s deluded. Because the “end” could happen in many ways.

Does the Eurozone disintegrate, taking down the European Central bank? Does Europe splinter back into 28 separate nations and choses to use their own currencies as before the Euro-zone was created? Does war happen between NATO and Russia and we step in? Does the US get involved in the South China Sea over those silly man made Islands? Does the velocity of money suddenly increase and almost overnight we go from inflation of 8% to inflation of 20 or 30%? Does China suddenly say that they have 30K tons of gold and they’re selling off all foreign Treasuries?

See the problem? This could go a multitude of ways, and in very unexpected “chains” so to speak. For instance, maybe Italy pulls out of the EU. Okay no big deal. But maybe their oldest bank can’t make it and folds, pulling the derivative grenade at Deutsche bank. So DB implodes and takes out half the Bank of Japan. On and on it goes.

One thing is very certain. If printing fake money for ever was the way to true success, it would have been done over the centuries. Each nation that tried it failed. Am I to believe that because ALL nations are now trying it, it’s going to work? Sorry I don’t think so. The Reset is coming. I think that if Trump were to win, the reset would go better. If Hillary wins... I think it’s going to be a very ugly time.

I think others understand this now. I think the reason Gold is moving higher is because they saw that years of QE hasn’t solved the economics issues. Fed policy has failed. They see negative interest rates, something never seen before and say” Yes the end must be near”. They see the EU and BOJ spending umpteen billions each month, only to see the economies sag more. And they see China, one of the few nations that are actually still growing, taking in every last ounce of gold they can get. Someone’ s starting to think.... Hey, maybe they know something we don’t? Indeed.

The Market...

When the bell rang to close out the session on Monday, the DOW had been down 7 days in a row. Then when it closed red again Tuesday, it made 8. That’s the longest stretch of red “in a row” since August of 2011. Well, it changed today. Today they put in a “bounce” day.

The DOW picked up 43, the S&P gained 6. So, what’s it mean? Is this the start of a multi day run? Or, was today a one trick pony, a “one and done” sort of thing and we go back to trading sideways and down?

I’m not sure yet. After such a long string of down, we had to get and up day. Nothing goes straight up or down, there’s always the counter trend bounce or dip. So today we got that counter trend pop ( in the DOW. The S&P has been behaving a bit better than the DOW)

Here’s my feeling on it. On the 22nd of July we put in an S&P closing high of 2175. Then we traded sideways for 8 sessions. Then on Tuesday it stumbled and we lost a lot of ground. At one point we were down almost 20 S&P points from Monday’s close, but we ended the day down about 10. We landed at 2157 for the close.

We are now trapped in a box. The high of 2175 forms the lid, the recent dip to 2150 forms the bottom. In between those two levels, we’re in no man’s land. With today’s close of 2163 we’re pretty much right in the middle of the two.

If we put in a close UNDER 2150, I can make the case for a next stop at 2125. If we break over 2175 for a close or two, you can imagine them trying to take the market to new highs. But in between... we could be right back into that sideways chop we just had for the last two weeks.

August has historically not been terribly market friendly. While most people think of October as “crash month”, historically September is the month with the most damages. So, it is possible the market takes a bit of a correction as we head deeper into August. Use the numbers above to figure if you want to be buying in here, or taking some profits. I’d lean long over 2175, I’d stay out or look at shorts under 2150.

Good luck folks.

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10.12.2014 Financial Intelligence Report

Earnings Upon Us…

Four times a year, most companies produce their economic report for the previous quarter of business. This isn’t something new, they’ve been doing it since the idea of a structured company first began. But like most things, they’ve “morphed” into something much different than the standards set so many years ago. I’m not shy in saying that a very competent accountant overseeing companies in 1920 would have absolutely no clue how to figure out what the hell any modern company was even talking about.

So when these companies start releasing their earnings in bulk next week, just what are we actually hearing them tell us? Sometimes it isn’t as easy as just saying “oh that’s their earnings based on sales versus expenses”. Thus I think a bit of history lesson needs to be taught here….

5.17.2015 Financial Intelligence Report

Are You Scared?

When I talk to people that I consider to be “awake” they all tend to say the same things to me. Almost to a tee, they suggest that they feel something isn’t quite right, but they don’t know exactly what. They feel like things are out of control, but can’t say why. They feel there’s some form of impending doom, but can’t explain what it is, or why they even feel that way. They just know things aren’t right, but for the life of them, they can’t elucidate just why they feel that way.

Financial Intelligence Report - 11.8.2015

Jobs For Who?

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. Estimates were for a gain of 183,000 jobs. But when the number hit we didn’t print 183K jobs, we printed 271,000 blowing away even the most bullish estimates. Inside the report it was all rainbows and unicorns. We saw the unemployment rate fall to 5%, and we see wages rose an astounding 2.5%. A better report you simply couldn’t make up!! In fact that’s true, because they made this one up, and it was the best they could do.

5.8.2016 - Financial Intelligence Report

Who is Kidding Who?

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. On the first Friday of every month we get a reading concerning the prior months job hiring’s. They discuss the breakdown of where the jobs came from, the sectors, the pay changes, etc. It really is a deep report.

Well, this month the spinner head economists were all on board for the economy to have created 205 – 220,000 jobs. Well, at 8:30 am, we got the results and it was a “swing and a miss”. According to OFFICIAL Government bean counters, we got 160,000 jobs. So right off the bat, the “experts” missed the estimates by about 24%. In any other profession other than weather forecasting, they’d be fired.

2.9.2015 Financial Intelligence Report

Jobs Galore?

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report, and boy…if the powers that be ever wanted to paint something to look perfect, this was their Rembrandt moment. Not only did the headline number beat the estimates of a gain of 235K by coming in at 257K; they went back and did some of the most aggressive “revisions” to prior reports that I’ve ever seen.

Let me paint the picture for you. According to our Government bean counters the last few reports have shown the most job gains in 17 years. They say that wage growth was the best since 2008, as they told us wages grew by 0.5%. The BLS did revisions to the entire year of 2014, and remember the “polar vortex” last January? They said at the time we only got 144K jobs. Now they say that looking back, it was really 247K. But that was nothing compared to what they did to November. Now they say November posted a gain of 465K jobs. That’s the most monthly gains since the tech bubble boom of the late 90’s. A time when there really were jobs galore.

1.8.2017 - Financial Intelligence Report

Will it Stop?

On Friday we got the release of the so called “proof” that the Russians influenced our election and pushed it for Trump. The main Stream media has been regurgitating this puke for weeks on end. This is the summary of the “official” statement:

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump

So, where was it? Where was the smoking gun, the absolutely, concrete infallible proof that this was the Russians? Where is the E-mail or phone records showing Putting ordered this? Well there is none. Because it’s all speculation. There’s about 20 or so statements that read like this: