Rugby … with cauliflower ears

Super Rugby Predictions …

March 15, 2012by Tank

If, like me, are you feeling a little down about your SuperBru predictions this year, I have some good news – you are not alone … Mark Hutchinson on The Rugby Blog points out some interesting stats that might make you feel a little better …

The number of correct SuperBru match predictions over the first three rounds this year is the lowest it has ever been, and on average, only 58.7% of rugby fans can accurately predict the outcome of each fixture.

Average % of correct SuperBru predictions:

2009: 74.78%
2010: 64.23%
2011: 63.18%
2012: 58.74%

Indicating clearly that results are becoming harder to predict and that the tournament is becoming more and more competitive. Gone are the days in which one or two teams from each country, such as the Bulls, Crusaders and the Reds, were so dominant – the data suggests that the gulf in quality between the top and bottom teams has been reduced and matches are more tightly contested as a result.

The average winning margin in Rounds 1 to 3 this year has been just over 8 points, compared to over 12 points last year and nearly 15 the year before – and even this season’s 8-point average is skewed by the Bulls’ thrashing of the Cheetahs in Round 2.

My 57.14% strike rate is still a little below average, so take the following predictions seriously at your peril …

I am not convinced by the move of Kahui to wing as he and SBW were gelling nicely, but I am getting more and more convinced by this Chiefs side as a unit by the second. I am loving the fact that they can scrum, and scrum properly. Brodie Retallick is on fire, Tawera Kerr-Barlow is the form scrummy, and Schoolboy Cruden is doing the business. This against a side who beat the Cheetahs at home with a lot of help from either an inept or cheating ref.

The Stormers are a tough, never say die team with a good “Gees” going. Peter Grant will add to the team, perhaps giving that crack centre pairing of De Villiers and De Jongh a little more ball. Etzebeth is a Bok in the making and the front row are going a long way to dispelling the notion that they cannot scrum. But they still do not have a fetcher, are playing Vermeulen out of position, and are up against the Braid brothers, two fetchers of note. I think they will struggle at the breakdown, these days such in influential part of the game. And they have a Kiwi ref at the helm!

A bit of a lottery this one. Really think it could go either way. One thing is for sure, this will be a game worth watching. I have been burnt by not backing the MacIntosh / Thompson clan too many times not to back them, but I would not be surprised to see the Canes win this, especially at home.

The Sharks eventually got their first win of the season last week, and are hoping it will be the catalyst for better things to come, but my word, their game against the Lions was no spectacle. The Reds might have travelled round the world, but they have picked salty sea dog Van Humphries at lock and are giving Samo and Robinson a run in the loose trio, which is clever selecting. Harris is deadly with the boot while Shipperley and Iaone are as exciting as they come out wide. Tough one to call to be honest …

The Cheetahs are playing some fantastic rugby at the moment, and were robbed of victory against the Brumbies last week by an inept reffing performance. They are still making errors at crucial times and Goosen, while an exceptional talent and definite future Bok, does make the odd bad call with regard to the crucial “Kick or pass” choice. Andries Strauss is back, Coenie is loving running with the ball. BUT, and this is a big BUT, this prediction was made before Cipriani had to pull out, and O’Connor at flyhalf makes this Rebels side a lot stronger …

I do love Sunday morning rugby … And throw in the fact that there are only six games this weekend, and it all seems a lot more manageable … I will be out near Worcester for the Put It In The Bucket swim in the Breede river, so will be hoping the Cheetahs put me in a good mood before easing into the soup to take on Cameron van der Burgh! I am MC’ing an old boys dinner on Friday night so will be missing the Stormers game, and will probably take in the Sharks game at the Worcestor golf course after hacking my way through the desert out there … Hope both the Sharks and Stormers prove me wrong …

7 Comments

I noticed that all refs for the weekend are Kiwi refs, except Sharks vs Reds which @refjk (Jonathan Kaplan) is reffing. Is this a sign that Aussie refs are not on par? I even see Bryce blowing a game….

Sonny Bill Williams – a wonderful example to young rugby players in the basic art of
retention of the ball in contact and distribution of the ball in contact.
However, I don’t think the Chiefs v Brumbies match did anything to help increase the viewership stats.