It’s safe to say that Donald Trump’s first 200-plus days in office haven’t exactly gone smoothly. He, members of his campaign and his administration are currently being investigated by a special prosecutor regarding potential collusion with Russia during last year’s presidential election. He was adamant during the campaign that repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) would be his first order of business when elected. Not only did that prove to be untrue, but Republicans failed to pass any health care legislation through the Senate despite being in control of both congressional houses and the White House.

The President has also continued his haphazard use of Twitter during his time in office to this point. He has continued to use the platform to insult those that oppose him. Even those that are apparently on his side aren’t immune to his social media ramblings.

Senator Mitch McConnell said I had "excessive expectations," but I don't think so. After 7 years of hearing Repeal & Replace, why not done?

The word “impeachment” has already been thrown around plenty, but it’s likely far too soon to seriously consider the possibility that he’ll be leaving office anytime soon. He has already begun preparations for a run for re-election in 2020, though it remains to be seen whether that will actually come to fruition.

Over at Paddy Power, there are a number of Trump-related props available. We’ll go through a few of our favorites and try and predict the future of the Trump presidency.

Will Trump Resign During His First Term in Office?

Yes 6/4

No 4/9

To this point, Richard Nixon is the only President in the history of the United States to resign from office. A few others have been impeached but weren’t forced to leave the Oval Office.

In case you may not have noticed, Donald J. Trump is an incredibly stubborn person. He hardly ever admits being wrong or inaccurate about anything, and he has already refused to take the blame for any of the Republicans’ legislative failures during his half-year term, including health care.

He is resistant to cave to pressure, so it’s going to take something incredibly serious to convince him to actually resign his post. Trump is not going to resign because of protesters or pressure from Democrats or Republicans. If he resigns, it will obviously happen amid some sort of scandalous firestorm. And we know there is no shortage of those around his administration.

Something huge is going to have to happen to push Trump to resign on his own. As we’ve seen, impeachment doesn’t always lead to resignation. Nixon resigned before he was impeached. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both impeached, but neither was forced to resign.

It’s up to Congress to decide whether to impeach a President. The Constitution dictates that a President can be impeached for “high crimes and misdemeanors.” Are lying under oath and obstruction of justice considered “high crimes?” It’s a nebulous term, to be sure.

Either special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s team will discover wrongdoing by Trump or his associates, or they won’t. If they do find something, will it be damning enough to force the 45th President to bounce early? We obviously have no way of knowing what the special investigation has learned or is tracking, but there do seem to be plenty of red flags between Trump’s associates and those operating out of the Kremlin.

“No” is a heavy favorite here for obvious reasons. The country has existed for well over 200 years and a President has resigned from office just once. Historical trends indicate that Trump is unlikely to resign. Still, if you’re feeling frisky, we won’t talk you out of shooting for the profit potential on “yes” here.

Will an American State Declare Independence in 2017?

Yes 66/1

2017 is almost over. We’re already in August, which means we have about four-and-a-half months left before the calendar flips to 2018. Frankly, there’s not much time for a state to get itself together and try and vote to declare independence from the United States.

However, there is at least one notable movement out there. California, which owns the world’s sixth-largest economy, is at least toying with the idea of going independent. The “Calexit” movement appears to be gaining some tangible steam. Last month, California’s attorney general released an initiative entitled the “California Autonomy From Federal Government” initiative.

Supporters of the movement have 180 days to collect 600,000 valid signatures in order to get the initiative onto the 2018 ballot. That’s a lot of signatures, and that’s not a lot of time. It’s possible that we’ll see Calexit on the ballot next fall, but it’s highly unlikely to actually get the votes necessary to pass.

This prop also specifically states “in 2017.” The California measure wouldn’t go on the ballot until 2018, so it’s moot.

This is a fun thought and a fun prop bet, but it obviously isn’t happening.

Will Steve Bannon Succeed Trump Within the Next 4 Years?

Yes 20/1

We’re only a half-year in, but the President’s staff has been shuffled more than a deck of cards at the poker table. Chief of Staff Reince Priebus resigned. Not one, but TWO Communications Directors, Sean Spicer, and Anthony Scaramucci, have come and gone. Scaramucci lasted a little more than a week. The President’s first National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, was forced to resign less than a month into his job. Trump has also fired the FBI Director, James Comey.

There’s certainly a theme. Trump cycled through three campaign managers (Corey Lewandowski, Paul Manafort, Steve Bannon) before Election Day. Firing people is kind of his favorite thing. Or one of them, in addition to firing off tweets in the wee hours of the morning from the White House Master Toilet.

Bannon has been one of Trump’s closest confidantes since being brought on board. The former editor of Breitbart played a massive role in helping Trump win the election against all odds. So, he’s managed to hang around for the first sixth months of the administration as one of the President’s top advisors.

Of course, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. Bannon reportedly clashed with Priebus, and there have been rampant reports of a rivalry within the White House between Bannon and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The latest drama involves Bannon going toe-to-toe with H.R. McMaster, who was brought on to replace Flynn as National Security Advisor.

Trump was evidently tempted to fire Bannon shortly after giving Scaramucci the boot, though he was reportedly warned that doing so would anger much of his base. Bannon is a massive influence in much of the “alt-right” segment of the Republican Party that wound up helping Trump get elected in the first place. Booting Bannon would be a major risk for Trump, especially considering his reliance on his base.

Saturday Night Live was one of many outlets that joked that it was Bannon pulling the strings in the White House with Trump serving as his puppet.

However, it’s hard to imagine Bannon eventually stepping into the Oval Office as the actual POTUS. How would this even happen? Bannon’s role as an advisor isn’t even on the Presidential line of succession. So, in order to succeed Trump, Bannon would have to run for President separately in 2020 and win.

While we don’t doubt that Bannon may have some interest in running eventually, it’s hard to imagine it happening. It’s also hard to imagine him winning. So, we’ll pass on this.

What Will Trump Ban During His First Term?

Guns in any American state 5/6

Abortion 3/1

Gay Marriage 6/1

Gay Adoption 7/1

Burka or Hijab 9/1

Quran 20/1

Theory of Evolution 50/1

Women’s Voting Rights 300/1

Black Voting Rights 300/1

Irish People 500/1

Stairs 500/1

First of all, this one is obviously crazy with a rather obvious tongue-in-cheek tone. Our favorite bet here is on Trump banning stairs by the time his term is up in 2020. That, of course, is a reference to Trump’s reported fear of stairs. Yes, stairs seem to make him uncomfortable. Honestly, I’d be with him if he wanted to ban stairs. Escalators > Stairs. I will run for President and win on that platform.

While lots of these aren’t going to happen, a few of them are possible. Earlier in August, Trump rather shockingly took to Twitter and announced that he was going to ban transgender people from serving in any form in the American military. While nothing seems to have actually come from this, it does seem to indicate that he’s not exactly on board with LGBT rights.

Of course, during the campaign, he acted as though he was cool with it. When asked whether he’d consider banning gay marriage, he said there was nothing he could do because the Supreme Court legalized gay marriage nationwide. Still, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see the Trump administration try and find a way around that and revert the law back to the pre-SCOTUS decision version.

As for abortion, Trump has attempted to take an interesting approach. He essentially told Planned Parenthood that they could continue to receive government funding if they agreed to stop doing abortions. He was evidently trying to appease Republicans as well as his own daughter, Ivanka, who has taken a pro-choice stance in the past.

While Trump may be in the process of trying to distance himself from established Republicans, his key to re-election is going to be continuing to engage them. He will not win the 2020 election if he’s running with his tiny base and literally no establishment Republicans. So, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him try and legislate abortions before his time in office is up.

We think there is plenty of value on Trump eliminating gay marriage and abortions, so feel free to take those on if you’re a better. Otherwise, you can ignore the rest of the options.

Area 51 Specials

Trump to Announce that Alien Lifeforms Exist 20/1

Trump to Open Area 51 to the Public During First Term 33/1

We’re not sure who thought of these, or why, but they’re fun. Why would Trump want to open Area 51 to the public? To make it into some sort of theme park? One would imagine the President surely does not have the authority to do such a thing, even if he wanted to.

Trump’s chief opponent during the campaign, Hillary Clinton, promised to open some Area 51 files to the public if she were elected. She said, “Unless it’s a threat to national security, I think we should share it with the public.” Sharing files is one thing, opening up Area 51 is entirely another. The bet seems to mean the latter, which obviously ain’t happening.

The first bet, whether Trump will announce that alien life forms exist, is more interesting. The President has already reportedly spilled the beans on some classified information during a meeting with Russian diplomats, and we know very well his tendencies to spout off about things on Twitter, sans a script.

Who’s to say Trump wouldn’t semi-accidentally blurt out that we have a bunch of aliens imprisoned at Area 51? Or that he has an alien butler serving him at the White House? Or that his son, Eric, is not just an alien wearing human skin? All of these are legitimately possible.

So, we’re intrigued about this one. We’ve had to say “no” to most of these, so why not take a risk? Trump is absolutely going to confirm the existence of aliens at some point.