And let me begin by stating I am not advocating a military buildup (although America does have to maintain a realm of competitiveness).

There is no larger threat to world peace than the growing imbalance between China and the United States.

Nothing. No larger threat. (just want to be sure everyone knows my point of view on this).

In the economic sense it is US, European Union and China (sure … you could throw in a couple of others but let’s call it the Big Three at the moment).

In a military sense the EU drops out because they don’t have a combined military (and, in fact, I tend to believe a couple of the EU countries would love the opportunity to kick the other’s ass if given half a chance).

So.

It comes down to USA and China.

C’mon. Let’s face it.

Unless we have global pluralism or a “global country” (which we are not going to have) global peace, or alignment, will be dictated by balance.

And the balance is starting to get out of whack.

Economically it is way out of line:

The US has built up a massive trade deficit with China. The US argues that this is partly because China has kept its currency artificially weak, which makes its products cheaper overseas. I don’t buy the argument (although it could make up some of the deficit). China has a stranglehold on our economy <albeit … USA also has a good hold on the China economy>. While some things may be complex this is black & white.

Some things are just what they appear to be.

And the trade balance takes on even more perspective when you start factoring in population (which eventually translates into production and/or military capabilities).

POPULATION

China’s huge population gives the country’s economy a vast workforce from which to draw.

Thirty years ago, the “one child policy” was introduced in cities to limit the size of families, and this was reaffirmed recently when the population reached 1.3 billion.

One result of the recent economic boom has been a growing middle class, demanding a higher standard of living based on perceived Western standards.

Analysts predict this is likely to further stretch already limited food, water and other natural resources.

While the population is stretching important resources the good news is that it isn’t stretching geography (because if they were geographically bursting at the seams we would be in a world of hurt). But. 1.3 billion and growing is a really really big number. And envision if they eliminated the ‘one child policy.’ Yikes.

The Troubling Scenario

So. Beijing is building up its military forces. They have a very very large army with a whole bunch of missiles and stuff like that.

And combine that with a growth in popular nationalism (the belief that your country should maybe have more than it currently does … on any level you would like to ponder that).

Military.

In recent years China has embarked on a rapid military build-up, acquiring the ability to project its power far beyond its borders. (hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm … and you would do that because … well … gosh … because maybe you want something outside your borders? Nah. Couldn’t be.)

We need to assume one day very soon China will be in a position to challenge the US as the dominant power in Asia.

Now.

China’s leaders say their nation’s rise will be a peaceful one.

So. How much do we believe China?

US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg recently called on China to reassure other nations about its intentions.

“Just as we and our allies must make clear that we are prepared to welcome China’s arrival as a prosperous and successful power, China must reassure the rest of the world that its development and growing global role will not come at the expense of the security and well-being of others,” Mr. Steinberg said.

Well.

That sure makes me feel a lot better about the situation if they reassure us (didn’t Hitler say something about not taking anything but what was theirs in the first place?).

Ok.

Now let’s think about military strength and this national populism thing.

One of Mr. Steinberg’s predecessors, Susan Shirk, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian affairs under President Bill Clinton, says the combination of China’s growing military and growing popular nationalism presents dangers.

“It creates the risk, not a high probability, but a risk, that one day China’s leaders could feel that to look strong in the eyes of their public they have to make a threat to Japan or to Taiwan and that they will feel that they cannot back down from that threat without jeopardizing their own domestic support or even their own survival in power. So I think that is a very dangerous scenario.”

In the world of relative understatements I tend to believe “that is a very dangerous scenario” is about a 15 on the understatement Richter scale.

In addition, what was once a radical fringe in national populism is now shifting slightly more mainstream (and we know how these things work … with a little nudge it becomes very mainstream). If you are looking for an example of what I mean, let me use a couple of quotes from one of the leaders in China’s national populism ‘fringe’:

“I am not just targeting Japan but all those who threaten the interests of the Chinese people,” says Li Nan. “Maybe even the United States and some others, I would see them all as enemies.”

And Li Nan offers a view of how a future crisis, such as one over energy supplies, might spur on nationalist sentiment in China. “In the future, energy supplies will become more and more scarce. Today each American consumes 10 times as much energy as each Chinese person. So every nation will have to think about their own survival. At that time, nationalism will be the mainstream.”

Ok.

I admit. I had to take a minute and ponder when I read this. It is the kind of vision that should give some in America pause for thought.

Anyway. I will leave you with a last thought from our government:

The US National Intelligence Strategy this year described China as presenting a complex global challenge.

I have always known that the Red Cross is staunchly neutral. Meaning that they will be silent in the face of any inhumanity or evil in order to meet the on the ground obligations of dealing with the human needs. They do this within conflict (war work well known) as well as humanitarian efforts for disaster relief – disaster being both natural and manmade. I didn’t know this but they have a network of humanitarian volunteers in over 186 countries.

Despite some pressure from other aid organizations the Red Cross staunchly defends its impartiality to politics and “evil doings” as being the advantage to serving the needs of the people anywhere.

Because of their stance in countries ravaged by war and genocide, the local Red Cross efforts have proven quite resilient. Basically, Red Cross (or Red Crescent societies – latter title preferred in many Muslim countries) gains access to areas others cannot in order to help those in need … because they are fanatically secretive with regard to what they see and hear around them.

The needs of those who are in harm’s way stand far above anything else they may feel.

I have one word for this – wow.

Ok. Let me share an example of why I say “wow.” (and I could use many but this ties into my Conscience post)

For example. In World War II the Red Cross could have possibly been invited to assist in aiding Concentration Camp victims but would have been required to tell no one about the Concentration Camps. Wow.

(this is only partially hypothetical because I believe they did work with Nazis in some situations)

If you want a moral dilemma take this one on. I am not sure I can.

But I do know one thing.

While I am fairly sure I couldn’t do it I am glad someone can … and someone does. I admire the Red Cross as an organization relentlessly sticking to its vision and mission and understanding their end objective – assisting people in need. They understand they cannot control Conflict but rather only serve those in the aftermath of conflict.

I cannot imagine how difficult it is to maintain their discreet silence in the face of some terrible atrocities.

This is simply a “wow” post from me. I guess I never really knew, or maybe took the time to think about, the extent of their “silence to do good work” manifesto.

Wrapping my head around this makes my head hurt. Thank god for an organization like the Red Cross and the minds who created it with the vision they maintain today.

The first four days of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament have always been like a mini-holiday for me; as a huge fan of the sport, it’s something I look forward to for months. I love the shear overload of games going on simultaneously, the matchups of powerful programs against unknown mid-majors, the chances for upsets, hell, even the camaraderie of a bunch of people hanging out in a sports bar taking a “long lunch” and playing hooky from work(I remember skipping some classes my senior year of high school to watch the early games on a Thursday afternoon).

I have to admit that due to the extremely disappointing season for my team, the UNC Tar Heels, I didn’t think I would be as in to the tournament this year. I didn’t even fill out a bracket, which felt strange. And before you say it, yes, I know they won the National Championship last year, and I couldn’t be happier about that. I don’t want to sound ungrateful for such a successful program, but maybe it’s that success that makes years when they don’t make the tournament that much harder. Anyway, I decided to head to a local sports bar for lunch yesterday just to see if I could feel that spark again.

After about 5 minutes of watching three games simultaneously, I quickly regained that excitement(the ice cold Fat Tires I had didn’t hurt either). In fact, in those three games I remembered exactly what I love about this tournament:

The “One Fan from the underdog team”: Sixth seed Notre Dame was playing #11 seed Old Dominion. Sitting by himself at the bar, a gentleman in an ODU t-shirt, focused intently on the TV above his head. Unfortunately, the bar’s speaker system was switched to another game, so he just sat there in silence, clapping and cheering quietly under his breath every time his team pulled even or ahead of the Irish. When the Monarchs pulled off the first upset of the day, several of us at the bar applauded, congratulating the guy sitting by himself in his ODU t-shirt. As he left he told us, “I’ve got to get back to work, but I’m wearing my shirt at the office the rest of the day!” You gotta love that.

The “Almost Upset”: With Robert Morris on the verge of knocking off #2 seed Villanova, you could almost feel the excitement running through the bar as everyone considered the implications of such a huge upset. The general consensus was “it might really screw up my bracket, but I’d still love to see it happen.”

The “I hate that team so I hope they lose”: Ok, this one might sound a little petty, but c’mon, we all do it. We all have that team or teams we hate and love to see lose. Well, for me one of those teams is Florida, and they were locked in a fairly awesome battle with #7 seed BYU. By the time the second OT ended with BYU victorious, I was almost ready to move to Utah and become a Mormon. Now, if The Golden Lions of Arkansas-Pine Bluff could only pull off a miracle against Dook later today…

Well, after three games (and a couple of beers), my love for the NCAA Tournament was reaffirmed. So the Heels aren’t in it this year…I can live with that. And in fact, my alma mater is in the tournament for only the fourth time ever.

Yes, the UVM Catamounts will be trying to become the first 16 seed to ever knock off a 1 seed when they face Syracuse tonight, so history is not on their side…or is it? In 2005 UVM pulled off a shocking upset of then #4 Syracuse. I remember that well, as I was the guy sitting there in a UVM shirt, much like my buddy from ODU yesterday.

Well, at least I know what I’m wearing when I’m watching the games tonight.