A Canadian LAV (light armoured vehicle) arrives to escort a convoy at a forward operating base near Panjwaii, Afghanistan at sunrise on Nov.26, 2006. The Canadian Press has learned that Canada's foreign ministry is closely monitoring all of the country's military exports, but won't revisit the controversial decision to allow the sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia. Bill Graveland / THE CANADIAN PRESS

(Update: While a Nanos survey on the public’s attitude may cause the Trudeau government to ponder the ethics of selling light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia, a lawsuit charging the federal government with violating its own regulations on the sale of military hardware being prepared by a group of law students at the Université de Montréal may do even more to focus the attention of the Trudeau Liberals on the issue. The suit, which contends Saudi Arabia’s human rights record disqualifies it from the deal, is expected to be filed in federal court by the end of this month.)

It seems a fundamental rule of political physics that every promise announced during an election campaign enjoys an almost vampire-like resilience once the candidates who made them have been voted into office.

Political circumstances can change, public finances revealed to be far more feeble than believed, indeed, the very issue that sparked the promise in the first place may become moot – but none of that matters. And in these days of instant information and, more importantly, total recall, an unfulfilled political pledge can wind up sitting at the foot of a politician’s bed every night and looking back at them in the bathroom mirror every morning.

And if political adversaries don’t ensure it, the internet will.

Before we go any further, let’s get one thing clear – Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals had pretty much nothing to do with a $15 billion deal to sell light armoured vehicles (LAVs) to Saudi Arabia. The nuts and bolts of the transaction were put together under the Harper Conservatives, and the closest the man who is now prime minister got to the issue of whether we should be selling military hardware to a nation renowned for its bloody trampling human rights occurred during a party leaders debate during the federal campaign.

Trudeau was cautious when asked if the deal should be cancelled in the light of rights abuses in Saudi Arabia, saying only Canada should be careful to vet the rights records of countries it wants to do business with (everyone on stage knew the deal represented 3,000 jobs in electorally essential Ontario). Later in the campaign, Trudeau dismissed the deal as being essentially the sale of “jeeps” to the Saudis, his civilian shorthand missing the point the LAVs would be equipped by overseas subcontractors with heavy calibre machine guns or anti-tank cannon. The quote haunted him, but only for a while.

Fast forward to the here and now. Given the result of the election, the distance between the Liberals and the Saudi deal and the fact no real promises had been made by the new government regarding the sale, it seemed for a while that what might have been a $15 billion headache for Trudeau conveniently disappeared at the corner of “Not on my watch” and “Too late to do anything about it.”

And this week, the Nanos polling firm, the same outfit that had accurately charted the rise of the Trudeau Liberals in the last sprint of the election campaign, surveyed 1,000 respondents for their take on Canada’s selling military hardware to the Saudis. The poll, conducted for the Globe and Mail, found that nearly six out of 10 of those surveyed felt exporting arms only to those countries “that respect human rights” is more important than maintaining the 3,000 jobs linked to the Saudi deal. Female respondents felt even more strongly about the issue – which if nothing else should be a shot across the bows of a prime minister who worked hard to win the support of women voters.

And they’re probably right – at least in the short term. The problem is that news of human rights abuses usually tend to flow out of Saudi Arabia sooner rather than later and, this being 2016, it’s news that Canadians – and the polling firms that survey their opinions – will inevitably hear about quickly.

The Nanos poll was the latest survey on this issue but you can bet it won’t be the last. And so, before the Saudi deal starts staring back at the Trudeau Liberals in the bathroom mirror, they may want to keep something in mind. Shrugging and saying your hands are tied may buy you some time, but it’s lousy (and lazy) political policy. And considering that the shrugging is being done by a government that campaigned on a theme of change, defending the status quo on a weapons deal most Canadians oppose doesn’t sound much like hard-nosed realism.

It sounds more like hypocrisy.

Montreal Gazette news columnist James Mennie can be heard weekdays at 4:35 p.m. on the Aaron Rand Show on CJAD 800.

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