You Got Served - More rosterbation

Ted BartlettApr 1, 2011 12:00 PM

Happy Friday, friends, and welcome to part two of Ted’s Grand Rosterbation Exercise. I haven’t gone blind yet, so maybe it’s just a myth. Whatevs… I’ll risk it. Armed with a starting point of 20/15 eyesight (thanks to the fine people at LASIKPlus), the comfort of having completed two midterms this week, and the home state pride of seeing both UConn’s men’s and women’s basketball teams in the Final Four (again), I’m getting this thing underway. Ready….. BEGIN!!!

I came with some serious mockery last week, and I decided that I’d close the circle today and create and discuss my conception of a Rational Actor roster for the Broncos. First, let’s revisit where we are vis-à-vis the Draft:

We traded Kyle Orton to San Francisco for a 3rd-round pick, and a conditional 2012 pick that could be as high as another 3rd-rounder.

When Carolina took Cam Newton first overall, we sold off the #2 pick to the team that wanted Blaine Gabbert the most, the Arizona Cardinals. To move down to #5, we acquired #38 and #69, as well as a 3rd-rounder in 2012. (Yes, that’s a reasonable deal. Think of the Giants/Chargers Manning/Rivers deal in 2004, and you’ll see it’s comparable.)

We drafted the following players:

Round

Player

Position

School

1

Von Miller

OLB

Texas A&M

2

Marvin Austin

DT

North Carolina

2

Stephen Paea

DT

Oregon State

2

Kyle Rudolph

TE

Notre Dame

3

DeMarco Murray

RB

Oklahoma

3

Martez Wilson

ILB

Illinois

3

Ahmad Black

FS

Florida

6

Charles Clay

FB

Virginia

7

Justin Trattou

DE

Florida

7

Adam Grant

OT

Arizona

Now, assuming that free agency starts after the Draft, which strikes me as more likely than not at this point, let’s take a breath and analyze what we have. (We’re also assuming that 2010 rules prevail, and that it takes six seasons for unrestricted free agency, so all players with expired contracts and less than six seasons who were tendered, will be assumed to have signed their tenders.)

Quarterbacks (2 on hand)

With the trade of Kyle Orton, the Broncos signal their intention to let Tim Tebow prove what he can do. Whether you love him or not (and I do), this is the wise move. If Tebow is the starter for 16 games and does poorly, chances are the Broncos are picking highly next season, and they can then look at other options. I think that 19 starts is an adequate body of work with which to judge if a guy is likely to grow into a good NFL starter.

It’s a lot more than Broncos backup Brady Quinn got in Cleveland, after all. Quinn is theoretically a solid backup, but I’d like to look at a cheap-ish free agent to push him. I’d consider finding another body a fairly high priority, actually.

Running Backs (10 on hand)

It didn’t get a lot of press, but Knowshon Moreno improved a lot in the second half of the 2010 season. I think it’s best to limit his carries to about 20 per game, but there wasn’t really anybody else on hand who earned many carries, so I have no quarrel with Moreno’s extensive use.

I’ve become a big believer in RB-by-committee, and not only because it makes fantasy-obsessed dorks complain, although that’s a bonus. I think that using RBs is all about maximizing the effectiveness of each play, and you can help yourself do that by keeping guys fresh, and also by having a group of players who have complementary skill-sets. The Patriots and Saints are the models for this, and their outstanding success with their committee approaches is what ultimately convinced me.

Anyway, Moreno can handle 20 touches, and we’re excited to have drafted our Reggie Bush-type in DeMarco Murray. (He’s a poor man’s version, but he’s very fast, and outstanding in the passing game.) We also have holdovers Correll Buckhalter, LenDale White and Lance Ball on hand, and I’m figuring two of those three make the team.

I also drafted FB Charles Clay in the 6th round to compete with holdover Spencer Larsen. I think both have a chance to stick on the roster. The longer-shot guys include RB Jeremiah Johnson, RB Brandon Minor and FB Mike McLaughlin.

Wide Receivers (8 on hand)

This is the strength of the football team, as Doc Bear described so excellently Tuesday. I’m only going to add a few words about each player, because I figure most of y’all read what he had to say. Brandon Lloyd finally lived up to his potential in 2010, and he was truly the best WR in the NFL. (That’s information from my eyes, you dig?) Lloyd has great hands at the top of his leap, along with fantastic timing and body control, but what I was most impressed with was his total smoothness as a route runner. Take a look sometime at how cleanly he gets off the line with his first step. He almost always has the DB on his heels right away, and it’s no wonder that he’s consistently beating them right after that.

Demaryius Thomas has all of the ability to be outstanding on the outside, and I expect him to make a big leap in his sophomore year if he is able to get/stay healthy. Eddie Royal is outstanding in the slot, and I like Matthew Willis’ potential at that position as well. Jabar Gaffney also had a good 2010, but I think that he may lose some snaps to the emerging Eric Decker in 2011. Decker can contribute at all of the WR positions, and he showed really well on special teams as a rookie.

Rounding out the current roster are Britt Davis and Eron Riley. They’ll have an uphill fight to make this team.

Tight Ends (4 on hand)

With the drafting of Kyle Rudolph in the second round, the Broncos have a guy with big-time talent, both as a blocker and downfield receiver. Rudolph is very similar to Rob Gronkowski, who was so successful for the Patriots as a rookie.

As much as people like to hate on Richard Quinn, I think he looked good over the last eight games or so of 2010 when the Broncos got their running game going. He was hired to be a strong blocking TE, and he was that, while showing the ability to continue to improve. Daniel Coats and Dan Gronkowski are also on the roster.

Offensive Tackle (5 on hand)

Ryan Clady didn’t have his best year in 2010 after coming back really quickly from a torn patellar tendon, but he was still definitely a top-five LT in the NFL, and I expect that he’ll be back to top form in 2011, a full year removed from the injury.

Ryan Harris struggled mightily over the first half of 2010, even getting benched for a stretch, but he stepped it up in the second half of the season. Harris looks like he’ll be back as a restricted free agent, so the Broncos got a bit lucky there, and probably saved some money.

We took a flyer on Arizona’s Adam Grant in the 7th round, and Chris Clark and Herb Taylor are also on hand. I like Grant’s potential some, but I haven’t seen much from Clark or Taylor.

Offensive Guard (6 on hand)

Zane Beadles had a very interesting rookie year. For the first eight games, he was an awful Right Tackle, and for the last eight he was a well-above average Left Guard. It’s clear that LG is the place for him, and I expect him to push for the Pro Bowl there, if the Broncos start winning some games again.

Chris Kuper had an okay year at RG, but I thought his run blocking slipped quite a bit in 2010. I don’t know if he was banged up or uncomfortable doing more angle-blocking stuff than he was previously used to, but I’d definitely like to see him get back to his 2009 form in 2011.

You can do worse than Russ Hochstein as a backup, but if you need him to be a starter, you’re hurting. Stanley Daniels was terrible in the games he started, and I expect him to be gone. I am curious to see Eric Olsen in the preseason, to see where he is. I’ve always thought that he projected as a better version of Hochstein who could be the key interior backup to all three positions. Shawn Murphy is just a live body.

Center (2 on hand)

J.D. Walton showed a lot of toughness and poise in playing 1,086 offensive snaps in 2010, the most of any Broncos offensive player. His performance was pretty uneven, but Center is really tough as a rookie. I thought he showed a good deal of promise, but I’d like to see Walton improve in 2011, especially in anchoring in the passing game.

Jeff Byers is a semi-promising backup type, but the best outcome would be if Olsen can backup Center on gamedays, leaving Byers on the practice squad.

Defensive Ends (6 on hand)

Robert Ayers got off to a great start in 2010 and then broke his foot. After missing five games, he came back but was never quite the same. When he was right, he was the best front-seven player on the team by a wide margin. I expect him to be dominant against the run in 2011, and I hope that he improves as a pass rusher. I have some reason to think he will. He’ll start at Left DE in any case.

Elvis Dumervil should be the primary Right DE, and the Broncos really need his pass-rushing excellence back in full effect. I like Dumervil’s ability to play with his hand on the ground, because he starts out low against OTs, and it helps him get good leverage quickly. He was never a speed rusher; he’s a skill rusher.

I thought that Jason Hunter was a real find by the pro personnel guys last season, and that he’ll be an excellent rotation guy in an even front. I think David Veikune’s natural position is as a 4-3 DE as well, and I suspect that he’ll be evaluated there, and do well. I don’t think that Ryan McBean is a very good scheme fit at either DE or DT. Finally, I drafted Justin Trattou in the 7th round. He’s not dynamic, but he has good physical skills and a really high motor. He’s the kind of guy who screams productive rotation DE.

Defensive Tackles (7 on hand)

Marcus Thomas had a very good season in 2010, easily his best in the NFL. He’s a natural 4-3 DT, so switching back to an even front should suit him. The Broncos luck out under this assumption that Thomas is locked up for reasonable money, because I think somebody would pay him a lot on the strength of last year’s tape.

We picked DTs with our first two 2nd-rounders in Marvin Austin and Stephen Paea. Austin is going to be an excellent penetrator, especially as he gets his hand technique down a bit better. Paea isn’t terribly quick, but he’s extremely strong, and he’s just the kind of guy you want in the middle of the defense stuffing the run.

Kevin Vickerson was another find on the scrap heap, and he turned in a solid season for the Broncos. I think he’s best suited as a DT, which is where he always played before coming to Denver last season. Mitch Unrein, Ronald Fields, and Louis Leonard are probably camp bodies, although Fields is a decent 3-4 NT.

Outside Linebackers (4 on hand)

Von Miller should be the starting Sam LB from Day 1, because he’s a rare talent. Don’t listen to this stuff about him being scheme-specific, because he isn’t at all. He’s going to make plays all over the field, and he’ll need to be accounted for as a blitzer on every snap, because he’s a terror moving forward. He has DeMarcus Ware-type ability as a blitzer, and a more diverse overall game, compared to Ware as a rookie.

For now, let’s say that D.J. Williams is probably the Will LB, and that Wesley Woodyard will definitely be in the mix at that position. I think that the way that John Fox and Dennis Allen want to play defense might suit Woodyard really well.

Lee Robinson has been hanging around the team for a couple years, and he may finally be able to stick on the gameday roster. I consider this a position that could use another body or two for competition.

Middle Linebackers (3 on hand)

I’d be pretty comfortable going into the 2011 season with a competition between Mario Haggan and Joe Mays to be the starting Mike. Each of them is a strong downhill striker. Williams could end up here too, but I remember how bad he sucked as a Mike in 2008, and it kind of gives me nightmares. Braxton Kelley is a fringe body at a position where a guy may be able to make a move. Keep an eye on him in camp and the preseason.

We picked Martez Wilson in the third round too, as a size-speed prospect, but I don’t think it’s terribly likely that he plays much on defense as a rookie. He can be a key special-teamer right away, though, and he eventually will have the ability to play all three LB spots, if he can get his football instincts aligned with his superior movement skills.

Cornerbacks (7 on hand)

Champ Bailey remains outstanding, and re-signing him was the key move of the Broncos' offseason. Having Bailey and his ability to excel in both man and zone coverage allows Dennis Allen to really mix up his secondary calls. He’s never had anybody as good as Champ before, so hopefully he’s excited to do some creative stuff.

Andre’ Goodman didn’t have a great 2010, amid being hurt a lot. When he’s healthy, he’s definitely the second-best CB on this roster, although his strong man-to-man orientation may be wasted if the Broncos play a lot of zone. (John Fox has historically favored zone, and Allen comes from a bit more man stuff with Gregg Williams; it’s hard to know what will be what at this point.) Perrish Cox is like a young version of Goodman, and I was pretty impressed with his poise, and the apparent fact that his confidence never wavered in 2010, despite getting beat some.

Syd’Quan Thompson can be a starting CB in the NFL in the right scheme, by which I mean one that employs a lot of zone coverage. Thompson isn’t going to turn and run effectively with the fastest WRs, but I like him as a guy to get physical in a short area and read routes and QBs. Cassius Vaughn was impressive as a rookie too. He has excellent speed and offers another option at CB and in the return game.

I don’t love Nate Jones as a coverage player, but he can fill at Safety as needed, and that versatility can be valuable. I think Chevis Jackson is undertalented and won’t make the team.

Safeties (7 on hand)

Renaldo Hill quietly had a pretty good 2010 season. The Broncos had a ton of breakdowns in the middle of the field, but very few were Hill’s fault. I don’t know how long-term an answer he is, but he’s probably still a starter in 2011.

Brian Dawkins had a pretty awful 2010 season, and I’m not personally counting on him to be a for-sure starter (or member of the opening day roster, even) in 2011. I’m sure that he knows he had a bad year, and you don’t count out a champion like him. Let’s say he’s an option, and hope that he plays well enough to be a strong contributor.

Darcel McBath and David Bruton have both shown flashes of good play on both defense and special teams. McBath needs to step it up, because he belongs to the Josh McDaniels regime, and he hasn’t been the “Starter in Year 2” guy that they thought he was. Bruton is an ace special-teamer who should definitely be on the roster.

I’m a big Ahmad Black fan, despite his lack of ideal size or straight-line speed. He finds the football, and he catches it when it’s near him. He’s also a very sure tackler, and was a key defensive leader for three years at Florida. The guy is definitely a football player, and he’ll always find ways to contribute. He was somewhat lightly recruited, but somehow he was better on the field than top recruits like Will Hill, Dee Finley and Jerimy Finch.

Kyle McCarthy showed some solid play at times, but he’s athletically pretty limited for the NFL level. If a McBath slips or gets hurt, he’s the kind of guy who can make the football team again. Nick Polk is a warm body.

Specialists (3 on hand)

There should be no doubt about K Matt Prater, P Britton Colquitt, and LS Lonie Paxton. Each player is excellent at their position, and it would be hard to replace any of them.

Free Agency

Because we were able to trade down and get some extra picks, there's much less need to chase free agents. To me, the key opportunity areas in free agency are Safety, Offensive Tackle, Backup QB, and Linebacker. With the draft class that we’re looking at, this team has already added some solid bodies, and the free agency needs are less abundant.

Let’s say we’re going to set out to find somebody at each position, with a budgetary constraint of $12 million of incremental average annual value in the contracts. Most of that was covered by the releases of Daniel Graham, Justin Bannan, and Jamal Williams, so that’s actually being pretty frugal about staffing the team.

OT Zach Strief, New Orleans Saints, 4 years, $12 million

Strief has been a starter-caliber player as a backup for the Saints and just hasn’t quite beaten out Jermon Bushrod or Jonathan Stinchcomb. He’s an excellent backup, and he’d have a real chance to beat out Ryan Harris, if Harris doesn’t rediscover his A-game. Worst case is good depth up front, and even that’s worth the price.

LB Ernie Sims, Philadelphia Eagles, 3 years, $10 million

Sims has been a bit of a disappointment relative to his draft status in Detroit, but he’s more than adequate as a run-and-hit linebacker, and he’s the type of guy that fits what John Fox and Dennis Allen are looking for.

S Abram Elam, Cleveland Browns, 3 years, $8 million

Elam is a good athlete who is a better coverage safety than run defender. While he’s far from perfect, he’s another quality body to add to the mix in finding the right pair of safeties to be on the field.

QB Trent Edwards, Jacksonville Jaguars, 4 years, $10 million

Edwards can start in a pinch, but he’s proven that he’s not a long-term answer in that role. I would feel better about having him around than I would another really inexperienced third QB. Edwards would have a good chance of beating out Brady Quinn as the #2 QB.

Conclusion

I came up with a depth chart, based upon all of this theoretical rosterbation, which includes 53 roster players, and 7 practice squad guys. The toughest cut was Matthew Willis, but I think that the WR position will be somewhat de-emphasized with John Fox as the Head Coach, so keeping any more than five of them seemed like a stretch.

Position

1st Team

2nd Team

3rd Team

4th Team

Practice Squad

QB

Tim Tebow

Brady Quinn

Trent Edwards

RB

Knowshon Moreno

DeMarco Murray

LenDale White

Lance Ball

FB

Spencer Larsen

Charles Clay

WR

Brandon Lloyd

Eddie Royal

Eron Riley

WR

Demaryius Thomas

Jabar Gaffney

Eric Decker

TE

Kyle Rudolph

Richard Quinn

Dan Gronkowski

LT

Ryan Clady

Adam Grant

LG

Zane Beadles

Russ Hochstein

C

J.D. Walton

Jeff Byers

RG

Chris Kuper

Eric Olsen

RT

Ryan Harris

Zach Strief

Chris Clark

LE

Robert Ayers

Jason Hunter

Justin Trattou

DT

Marcus Thomas

Marvin Austin

DT

Kevin Vickerson

Stephen Paea

RE

Elvis Dumervil

David Veikune

SLB

Von Miller

Ernie Sims

MLB

Mario Haggan

Joe Mays

Martez Wilson

Braxton Kelly

WLB

D.J. Williams

Wesley Woodyard

CB

Champ Bailey

Syd'Quan Thompson

Cassius Vaughn

CB

Andre' Goodman

Perrish Cox

FS

Darcel McBath

Brian Dawkins

Ahmad Black

SS

Renaldo Hill

Abram Elam

David Bruton

K

Matt Prater

P

Britton Colquitt

LS

Lonie Paxton

I know what you’re thinking. Only two starters who weren’t on last year’s roster? Of a 4-12 team? Yes, that’s what I’m thinking. This is not a team that needs to be blown up, it’s one that needs some defensive emphasis and stability, and it’s one that needs to let its excellent young offensive players continue to grow and develop. The key to a quick turnaround is making the best of what you have on hand, and it seems to me that John Fox is a good guy to do that. Of course, that’s a distinctly different approach than Josh McDaniels took, but I think that McDaniels left Fox with some good pieces to work with.

Think about it like this: The 2007 Dolphins went 1-15, and Cam Cameron got fired after one season. In 2008, Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano came in and put in a program for a quick turnaround. They leveraged a lot of the same players into a 10-6 team that won their division. They didn’t really sustain the building success, but it shows that by getting things stabilized, a team can improve quickly.

This theoretical team has good enough personnel on defense, especially with a few key additions, to be solid if the scheme and coaching are good, as I fully expect they will be. If Tebow can play pretty well in 2011, then with solid health this roster can compete in a lot of close games, and have a chance to win the AFC West. The endgame would be competing for a Super Bowl in 2012.

If Tebow plays poorly and looks like he doesn’t have what it takes, then you’re back to looking for a QB in 2012, and that’s okay. I don’t think that that’s what will happen, though. I think that Tebow is going to be much improved in Year 2, and that he’ll lead this team to a successful first season under John Fox, thus making everybody excited for what the next year will look like.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

Related

A common complaint here is the rankings of prospects vis-a-vis metrics. And we see both sides of the dilemma, as Martez Wilson comes from the workout warrior camp and Ahmad Black represents the opposite problem.

I wish I could come up with a truism that guides draft decisions but there isn&#8217t a hard and fast rule that resolves this dilemma. Neither Wilson nor Black are guaranteed stars, and that&#8217s why they might last until the 3rd. Moreover, I can&#8217t agree with the logic that says either a &#8216player&#8217 or workout-warrior is necessarily a superior or inferior choice.

Regardless of where you think they should be ranked, Black and Wilson represent potential, and it&#8217s potential of different types. Black&#8217s film looks great but his Combine and Pro Day 40 times have dropped him. What fans rarely consider is that speed isn&#8217t always demonstrated by track speed metrics. Jerry Rice had a slow start but a higher top speed. Syd&#8217Quan Thompson, like Black, registered slow 40s. Injuries explained some of his problem but he&#8217s clearly not a burner. Wilson, on the other hand, sounds like a 1st rounder based on metrics. The fact that he hasn&#8217t played up to that speed doesn&#8217t mean he&#8217s an irrecoverable project. And it&#8217s certainly worth a try if he&#8217s still around in the 3rd. What fans underestimate is the amount of learning that goes into the process. It&#8217s not a clearcut case of innate ability, even though that&#8217s a meme that&#8217s overused and thus over-believed.

I would certainly like to see us pick this draft crop. We should be so lucky.

BTW, re: Quinn&#8212I think there&#8217s been a tendency to dump on McDaniels&#8217 players now that he&#8217s gone. Quinn was reported (by the DP) to have pulled practice time snaps aways from Graham in the 2nd half of the season. My guess is that Graham&#8217s release is an unsubtle way of saying that Quinn is ready to take over Graham&#8217s primary role on the team.

Posted by colinski on 2011-04-03 23:04:47

Very nice piece Ted. As a hardcore draft nerd, I would just like to throw my two cents out there.

1. I like the first 3 picks, but I&#8217m hesitant on Rudolph. Fox has never drafted a TE that high and from what I&#8217ve gathered from Andrew Mason, TE&#8217s are not a big part of Fox&#8217s offense. I have serious doubts that we take Rudolph in the second when we can take a Rahim Moore, Jaiqwuan Jarrett, or a linebacker like Mason Foster.

2. I don&#8217t think Martez Wilson will be available in the 3rd even with his neck injury. I think the Jets would take him at the bottom of the 2nd in a heart beat.

3. I think drafting Ahmad Black in the 3rd is almost as bad as using a 1st to draft Alphonso Smith. Black has very limited athletic ability. His instincts may be good, but it&#8217s a huge reach. I would not touch him before the 5th at the absolute earliest. He looks like a career backup/STer to me. A player like Tyler Sash, Deunta Williams, or DeAndre McDaniel could be there in the 3rd. I think each of them have much more potential then Black. Just my opinion though.

Thoroughly enjoyed the read though. Keep up the good work!

Posted by NickCast on 2011-04-02 07:19:03

Good piece of work, Ted. There is a lot to like here. I am warming up to Von Miller being the 1st pick. He would be one heckuva addition to the front 7.

I have heard that Fox wants a solid OL, a good running game and a stout defense. This should also translate that there will be adequate protection for the QB both in personnel and in play calling. That could also mean that he might be interested to utilize the WRs and the QBs that he already has on hand to push the envelope on offense with a strong passing game. If Tebow is the QB for 2011, a good core of WRs will help him to develop. Elway remembers his drought years under Reeves and how his passing game expanded under Shanahan.

In the event that we have some kind of FA period, I wouldn&#8217t be surprised to see a couple of DTs being signed as well as 1 or more LBs that would fit the desired defensive scheme.

You touched on it near the end of your piece when you spoke of the Dolphins and how they turned a 1-15 season into a 10-6 the following year. Very doable with this team. We have some good personnel on this team.

Thanks, Ted.

Posted by BlackKnight on 2011-04-02 07:03:08

I&#8217d replace Martez Wilson with either a Mike LB such as Greg Jones or a Sam LB like Mason Foster. I&#8217m not liking what I&#8217m hearing about him. Rob Rang considers him an overrated player: &#8220Wilson struggles locating the football, making him significantly slower on the field than the 6-4, 250-pounder timed at the combine (4.46-second electronic time). This is particularly troublesome for Wilson considering he&#8217s played linebacker for three seasons with the Illini, as opposed to Moch, who starred as a defensive end. Wilson might measure like a first-rounder, but his tape says he&#8217s closer to a third-round pick.&#8221

I don&#8217t believe EFX will consider drafting a pass-catching TE such as Kyle Rudolph. There is no question he is by far the best TE in this draft, but there are so many positions that need to be addressed in the first two rounds, that I don&#8217t believe the team would be well served to pick him up. Besides - Gronk may surprise us next year, beating out Rich Quinn, who may do just fine being a 6th lineman in a more run-heavy offense.

Mario Haggan has got to go or simply be demoted to play special teams, where he is quite good. The Broncos should either let Joe Mays start or bring in a starting caliber MLB.

I like the rest of your draft though. Well thought out.

Posted by Horsepower on 2011-04-02 04:00:33

Thanks, Ted. A friend of mine pointed me to your last 2 posts at your previous blog, and I quickly became a big fan of your work. Actually, all of you guys do a great job with this site.

Regarding your mock draft, I like Fairley and Dareus, but I&#8217m hoping that we take Von Miller regardless of whether or not we trade down. There is plenty of DL depth in this draft. I&#8217m curious about your thoughts on Allen Bailey. I like Kyle Rudolph, but am not convinced that we&#8217ll draft a TE that early. Murray would be a great complement to Moreno. I like Hunter or Vereen at RB as well. Delone Carter probably doesn&#8217t fit a need for Denver, but I think he may be a sleeper RB in this draft. If Martez Wilson lasts to Rd 3, he&#8217d be a good pick there. I think you&#8217re right on regarding Ahmad Black.

This would be a good draft to take a developmental QB so that we can trade Orton and let Quinn go after this year. Beyond the top QBs we are hearing about, I like Stanzi as well. That said, I&#8217m a big believer in Tebow as a starter now and as the guy for the future. He has the &#8216it factor&#8217 that we haven&#8217t had since Elway. A guy like that inspires those around him to never lose hope, whether players, coaches, or fans even.

Thanks again. Great work!

Posted by Fuad Zolak on 2011-04-02 02:07:25

It seems like every year, the Martez Wilsons of the draft pool get all sorts of love because of their measureables or how impressive they look in shorts, all in the absence of any concern over production that falls short of what you&#8217d think it&#8217d be or a demonstrated lack of football instincts and/or an innate feel for the game. Meanwhile, productive players like Mark Herzlich, who are faster against other men than they are against stop watches, who are productive ballers who feel the game and thrive on it, always get nitpicked and forgotten this time of year. Says here that Herzlich, among others, will end up being twice the player that Wilson will be, and I&#8217d rather see Denver draft him as potential long-term SAM in the third round than to take a flier on a guy who should be much better than he really is in Wilson, or to use the 2nd overall pick on a kid (Miller) who&#8217s only real weakness is taking on and shedding linemen as a run defender, which a SAM generally HAS to do regularly. I&#8217d be much more excited about Miller if they were sensible enough to make him the WIL and make D.J. sink or swim in the middle&#8212or even convert D.J. into a couple of picks to build depth or free up some draft day flexibility to tighten up some needy-but-not-desperate offensive positions.

Posted by Drewthorn on 2011-04-02 02:04:39

There&#8217s a rumor going around that the neck injury that Martez Wilson experienced in 2009 is more of a problem than they thought, and that showed up during his exam at Combine. It&#8217s just a rumor at this point - I wouldn&#8217t put too much stock in it unless it&#8217s confirmed.

Great piece, Ted!

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-04-02 00:46:23

After yesterday&#8217s NC pro day, Mayock felt Austin move himself up into the 1st rd. That sucks. Well, maybe another DT falls to us.

After being rather putrid for the last 3 seasons on defense, I feel we have normalized our feelings about the quality of our defensive talent. IMO we have a little defensive talent - save for CB. I really feel this is at least a 2 yr process to get this defense to play at a top 13/14 defense level. And I really think in 2012 we will be looking at 9 new defensive starters from the 2010 team (Champ and Ayers).

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-04-01 18:23:59

If that is the way the draft goes I&#8217d be happy. I think more of Martez Wilson than you but I don&#8217t watch film. Can they trade Oton if there is still a lockout? I don&#8217t see that being settled either, because of appeals.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-04-01 18:18:33

Nice work Ted. From my understanding, Fox has run a zone blocking scheme the past few seasons. Do Beadles and Walton fit in that system? Of course, Carolina did draft Jeff Otah who I believe is 330+ lbs in 2008.

Posted by MW730 on 2011-04-01 18:05:03

I like a lot about this Ted. I like the trade back to pick up Miller. I like the Orton trade. I even like the final roster. I would say that I think there would be a big difference between the say one starting roster and the week 17 one, apart from just injuries as some of the younger defensive guys pick things up.

I&#8217m not sure about paying that much money for a third string QB though. I guess I wouldn&#8217t mind picking up a developmental guy in the draft or maybe not even carrying one.

Does anyone know if there is a later round QB it might be worth bringing in?

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2011-04-01 17:42:09

Say it ain&#8217t so Ted! Willis gone??? I&#8217m going to really cheer against you on this one&#8230that kid is a burner. I get your thinking, but unless he takes a step back in training camp this year, he&#8217s a guy you find a spot on the roster for.

I think honestly the biggest problem I see when I look at the roster you put out is the MLB. I honestly don&#8217t like how that position looks one bit. I do agree that Mays may be a good stop-gap and then back-up in a year or two, but it would be really great for us to trade Gaffney for a starting MLB that could fill in for 3 years while we groom a new one&#8230