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Patriots-Texans: Round 2

Sentinel & Enterprise

Updated:
01/11/2013 07:13:15 AM EST

By Tim Britton

The Providence Journal

It matters. It doesn't matter. It matters. It doesn't matter.

One can go back and forth all week on whether the New England Patriots' 42-14 wrecking of the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium on Dec. 10 will affect what happens on Sunday. The answer is, well, it kind of matters.

The early line from New England is that the earlier meeting doesn't mean much at all. Every game is different, and regular-season contests are intrinsically different from postseason ones. Let's remember: The game with the Texans wasn't even over before people made the comparison to 2010's 45-3 whipping of the Jets at Gillette -- and New York's subsequent playoff victory in the rematch a month later.

Under head coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 8-6 in rematches in the regular season (that includes a 5-0 start in such contests). But in the playoffs, they are 6-3 against teams they beat in the regular season.

"As we all know, when you play a team twice during the season, the games are totally different," Belichick said on Sunday. "They never go the same way."

That said, the previous meeting between the Patriots and Texans can't be ignored. It only happened a month ago, and it provides a baseline of information for two teams that rarely play one another. (Before their December encounter, New England and Houston hadn't met since Week 17 of the 2009 season, when the Patriots were resting players.

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They hadn't played a meaningful game, then, since December 2006, when the Texans were quarterbacked by David Carr and led in rushing by Ron Dayne.)

Overall, the significance of the first game isn't an either/or proposition. It can be somewhat important while still not dictating the outcome of Sunday's game. Here's some of what can be gleaned from that initial encounter, and why this meeting is likely to take a different course:

The first meeting was fluky.

The Texans had a Murphy's law kind of game that Monday night at Gillette. Their secondary wide receivers behind Andre Johnson -- Kevin Walter and Lestar Jean -- dropped critical passes in the first half that could have extended drives into Patriots territory. Kareem Jackson whiffed trying to pick up Stevan Ridley's fumble inside the 5-yard line on New England's first drive. Later in the game, Danny Woodhead fumbled inside the 10, only to see Brandon Lloyd jump on it in the end zone for a touchdown. Suffice to say, the Patriots would be well-served not putting the ball on the ground twice inside the opponents' 10-yard line.

Of course, every game is full of such plays. But if one or two of them had gone the Texans' way early, Houston wouldn't have fallen behind so drastically, and it wouldn't have had to alter its playing style by the second quarter.

Rob Gronkowski is back.

The Texans played the majority of the first meeting in their base defense, with just four defensive backs on the field. They could do so largely because the Patriots were without Gronkowski and thus playing Michael Hoomanawanui or Daniel Fells -- hardly pass-catching threats -- in multiple tight-end sets. Even so, Houston's linebacking corps had a rough night trying to check Aaron Hernandez, who caught eight balls for 58 yards, including two touchdowns.

With Gronkowski back in the fold, expect the Texans to deploy extra defensive backs more often this time around. At the very least, that should open up even more room for New England's running game, which compiled 130 yards in the first game.

Also back are Texans linebacker Brooks Reed, as well as tight end Garrett Graham, tackle Derek Newton and defensive back Alan Ball.

Reed is a solid two-way linebacker who can shore up the second line of Houston's defense. New England offensive coordinator raved about Reed's "explosiveness off the edge" on Monday.

The presence of a third tight end in Graham wouldn't seem like much, but the ability to use jumbo sets is critical to the Texans offense. Without Graham (concussion) in the first meeting, Houston spent much more time than usual with three wideouts on the field; we've already covered that Jean was not particularly effective in that position. The Texans' occasional dalliances with a sixth offensive lineman -- Andrew Gardner -- appeared to do more harm than good. Gardner was beaten off the line twice, and he didn't present himself as a viable pass-catcher on a third-down play inside the New England five.

With Graham and Newton both back, the Texans can better attack the Patriots with their running game at full strength. Not falling behind, 21-0, after three drives would help as well.

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