Friday, April 15, 2011

Trump takes the lead

Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they're willing to support a candidate for President next year who firmly rejects the birther theory and those folks want Mitt Romney to be their nominee for President next year. With the other 62% of Republicans- 23% of whom say they are only willing to vote for a birther and 39% of whom are not sure- Donald Trump is cleaning up. And as a result Trump's ridden the controversy about Barack Obama's place of birth to the highest level of support we've found for anyone in our national GOP polling so far in 2011.

Trump's broken the perpetual gridlock we've found at the top of the Republican field, getting 26% to 17% for Mike Huckabee, 15% for Romney, 11% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Sarah Palin, 5% for Ron Paul, and 4% for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty.

Among that 23% only willing to vote for a birther Trump is cleaning up even more, getting 37% to 13% for Huckabee and Palin, and 10% for Romney and Gingrich. He's a lot weaker with the 38% who say they're perfectly happy to vote for someone who's dismissed the birther theory- with them Romney leads at 23%, with Huckabee at 18%, Trump at 17%, Gingrich at 10%, and Palin at only 7%.

I'm still pretty skeptical that Trump's going to run but if he doesn't someone who taps into the same sort of hard, hard right sentiment he's appealing to right now will get their votes- it's hard to imagine these folks voting for a more centrist candidate like Romney or Pawlenty. And that means there's a very serious contingent within the Republican Party that's less concerned with beating Barack Obama than having a nominee who gets them fired up. That suggests many GOP voters have not learned the lessons of Nevada and Delaware and that Obama may survive despite his weak approval numbers because the Republicans end up defeating themselves.

If you take Trump out of the mix Huckabee leads with 22% to 16% for Romney, 15% for Gingrich, 12% for Palin, 8% for Paul, 6% for Pawlenty and Bachmann, and 3% for Haley Barbour.

If you look at the field with Huckabee, Palin, and Trump all out of the mix you end up with a showdown between Romney and Gingrich. Romney gets 25% to 23% for Gingrich, 13% for Paul, 10% for Pawlenty, 8% for Bachmann, and 4% for Barbour.

84 comments:

Here's an offer from Canada to trade Prime Minister Stephen Harper to the GOP to give their leadership race a little gravitas....He's no birther...Perhaps Trump can dig up an American birth certificate for him while he's on the hunt for Obama's...

This madness is spinning out of control (out of the Republicans control!) ... with numbers like this Trump may actually end up running (I always assumed he was just doing it for publicity...) ... but with Trump's ego will he turn down a chance to become the Republican nominee?

Reading stuff like this is why I think problems with Independents and/or Undecideds is temporary at worst. We've got one of the major political parties in this country deciding that a birth certificate is a legitimate topic of discussion, as opposed to jobs, health care, or national security. Well, to be fair, there are some people discussing Medicare and Medicaid. The problem is, they want to end those programs, and the Democrats will have no problems forcing the Republican to wear those positions as they fall off a cliff. There are a lot of things that are distracting those who aren't political junkies, but once this becomes more publicized, I imagine it'll be reflected in the polls.

I appreciate what Trump is doing. If Obama was eligible, the democrats would not be pushing back so hard against individual states passing eligibility laws such as AZ. I don't think Obama will be on the ticket in 2012. too many people realize he is just rotten through and through. America will need to take a shower when his term ends, hopefully under indictment for fraud and treason

I see none of those mentioned here in the trenches taking the arrow’s and simultaneously scoring direct hits by himself fighting not only his own party but the opposition shooting more arrows than he's taking and that’s Trump. I own a company that produces a product that's under 90% of America's sinks. We employ 14,000 domestically and internationally. With a fee of $10,000 we could very well become an offshore concern deferring American employee’s and taxes. We will not! And as a business owner I need someone in the Whitehouse that at least knows free enterprise economics and once again that’s Trump. Romney IMO does not have the toe to toe brass and teeth necessary to right this ship as exampled in his latest bomb throwing performance inside our own tent. Nope, I'd rather roll the bones with a proven individual that actually loves the spikes on his collar as opposed to the ascot's most on this list are wearing. Things need to be shaken up from the subterranean level all the way to the moon. Obama’s current inexperience hence decisions need to stop on a dime here and there is no one other than Trump IMO that can do just that. Now, you may think I'm an ignoramus but if anyone thinks an ignoramus can create a $90 million company from a kitchen table in 20 years, then go for it. Trump’s my guy thus far.

Heres one for ya look how off this so called credable polling outfit PPP was in NY23.What were you guys 15 or 18 points off in you last poll of that race?I take any PPP poll I see toss it from my mind then go over to Rasmussen to realize the real #s.

PPP your polls are such crap. You liars are putting out garbage. According to Gallup Trump has the highest unfavorable of any Republican. I think we will trust Gallup and not the Daily Kos/SEUI's pollster.

This is a Joke. You creeps should get out of the Polling Business. Trump is Crashing in the Polls. Did you see the Headline Bush EVIL and Praise Obama. This Republican would never vote for Obama. This Pathetic Propoganda Polling Outfit is a joke. You liars don't poll you make it up.

If Obama does not release his birth certificate, I like Trump, will believe he is hiding something. Once you're a president, you become a public property and should freely and quickly make public your birth certificate or any other thing that makes the public doubt your citizenship. Hmmm - I can see fire beneath the smoke!

You may say we have more important things to worry about e.g. the economy. Yes - this is even more important. It is about national security that economy hangs on.

If an inexperienced candidate like Obama with the questionable former associates and the radical past can get elected, Donald Trump can surely get elected also. Of course the MSM ran interference for Obama but the truth was there about Obama if anyone wanted to look. The MSM will not be so kind to the Donald but I have a feeling he would thrive under the pressure and earn respect. Trump can beat Obama. He would tear the Teleprompter Tool to shreds in debates.

Obama gives an interview that says everyone knows he was born in Hawaii, but how is it that no interviewer has asked him what hospital he was born in just to clear the air? That would help Obama's argument. Do you know anyone that is that secretive about what hospital they were born in?

All we need do is look at history, Trump has accomplished nothing really, his father bailed him out when he screwed up in the 80's. His education was bought by his daddy's money, he's pals with Rupert Murdoch who runs most of the "right winged media", and he's(Murdoch) not even an American..This is a ruse to make all middle class and lower class people the virtual slaves of the have and have not society presently being built... Pres. Obama's birth certificate is and never was the issue, it's the old story, tell a lie enough times and it becomes the truth, the health care plan for example was originally instituted in Mass. by Gov. Romney, who nows is distancing himself from it, and here's the point you republicans cannot dispute, Clinton left a surplus, and Bush left us broke,I agree Pres. Obama is weaker than I'd hoped he'd be but he has been hampered a Republican party whose only agenda was to bring him down

HA! This is the same poll where Ron Paul was left out, yet still managed to get 5% by write-in. If you agree that the status quo will destroy our country, we need to support Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. Otherwise, let us watch Rome burn while toasting our prosperity.

Trump would be just the thing to shake things up as he has several things going for t=him that are lacking in every other Rep candidate hopeful.

1) He does not suffer fools and talking heads when they regurgitate talking points. He calls them on it.

2) He puts America First. Every other candidate wants to make nice with China, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and whoever…no matter what the cost to the US in dollars, growth or jobs.

3) He says what he means, and means what he says. Every other candidate hopeful talks Around issues, not to them.

4) Trump Leads from the front. he does not plan to form a committee to hide behind and obscure the issue…he handles them.

5) He knows when to mind his own business. Trump does not confuse Social states rights issues like Abortion, Gay Marriage, etc. with federal fiscal issues.

Frankly I am surprised at my own support for Mr. Trump, but so far he seems like the only candidate of either party that is speaking Too the issues and not around them.

Tho the MSM and the White House may not like it, the question of Obama's Birth has legs, and is not going anywhere. Because there is a serious question here..it is Principle, and the Law that is supposed to apply to All, but somehow Obama gets a pass? Every pat president has supplied their Birth Certificate..But Obama feels 'We the People' his employers, are not entitled to see it? Sorry, that just does not past the 'smell test'. Its past time Obama showed a little respect for the country he leads , and start dealing from the top of the deck.

Obama has lied to us. He has spent over 1 million U.S. tax dollars covering up his lies and deception concerning his U.S. Natural Birth. He is just like Hitler, not even a German and came to be the ruler of Germany killing millions of innocent Jews and Germans. Already Obama, has been giving are hard earned tax dollars to equador, Chavez, and other African dictator nations who support genocide.

There will be big financial problems coming you idiots! You can't see the trouble Obama has caused. Therefore you will suffer greatly for what you did when you voted for the SOB.

I said this, and I warned you you people. If you enjoy living under communism then enjoy, when China and Russia attack. The U.S. setup for an attack at are weakest point in history.

Donald Trump is nothing but an anti-property rights THIEF whom no real Republican would ever support once they learn this: In a well-publicized case during the 1990s, Trump and 'business' associates engaged government authorities in NJ to use their Eminent Domain power to seize the home of one Vera Coking, evict her, and sell her land (cheap) to Trump for a casino parking lot. Nice guy, Trump. Luckily, with the help of the Institute for Justice, Vera Coking was able to thwart Trump's attempted theft in court. But Trump is still at it. He tried a similar move in California in 2007 that also failed but now, a farmer (Michael Forbes) in Scotland is in danger of being evicted from his home (family too) so that Trump and his gang can build a golf course. Yeah, the Forbes' will get 'just' compensation.

After hearing Trump talk about charging other countries for the use of our military, I got on board. Our country is being run like a free clinic, and were smarter than that. Someone needs to put an end to our Economic bleeding, and who better than a business man like Trump. He does not even need a running mate!

I hope you consider my suggestions on the earlier thread about asking two questions in your next national poll:

1. Would you use the word "sincere" to describe Donald Trump? [Important because a lot of people have said that Trump is toying with a run just for the publicity it generates.]

2. Do you believe that Obama's refusal to release his original birth certificate proves that he has something to hide? [Important because it would distinguish the hardcore "born in Kenya" birthers from people with more general suspicions.]

I'm a conservative who loves the guy ! So far , I haven't met a fellow conservative who isn't equally as enthused.He has us fired up in a way that none of the rest of field could possibly hope to.His business and foreign policy acumen is becoming more well known.Most importantly , Trump has the ability to express his beliefs in a way that is articulate without being pedantic and boring.Trump is the dark horse candidate that some predicted , but, none of us could have imagined.The mainstream media completely underestimated the Tea Party groundswell of 2010 .They are making the same mistake today by underestimating the growing Trump groundswell.Only they are being joined by the media on the right.Many of us will be very disappointed if he choses not to run. If he's not the nominee , my choice in descending order would probably be Daniels , then Pawlenty , then Romney.The enthusiasm level dives sharply after that with the rest of the names.

I would like to know why Donald Trump refuses to show his draft card. He side-stepped the question as to why he did not serve in the Vietnam War although he would have been of draft age at that time, there was a draft (the military was not voluntary at that time). WHAT IS HE HIDING AND WHO GOT HIM OUT OF SERVING IN VIETNAM?

What it suggests is that the conservative voters within the Republican party are tired of voting for who we are told to by the left leaning Republican leadership. Maybe it's the centrist in the party who need to learn a lesson and side with the conservatives for a change so that obama doesn't win again. Why is it that the conservatives are always the ones who are supposed to capitulate to the will of the so call centrists/leftists in the Republican party. Sounds to me like you are trying to influence the voters to only look at the approved candidates of the Republican leadership. Is this site run by Fox News?

To the poster that is conservative & doesn't know any other conservative voting for Trump, well I DO. Many conservatives are supporting him. As are many Indy's. Trump already deals with conservatives as well as liberals. He can work with anybody. But don't be a fool and cross him. Because he is known to obliterate opposition, including those he is "friendly" with.

To the post that mocks the birth issue complaining there are other issues to discuss, where have you been? Trump can multitask. Yes, he is doing the birther bit, but he is also discussing China, business, economy, jobs, senior care, OPEC, Iraq, Libya, the national debt, discusses the idiocy of raising the debt limit, and endless other things. Trump also talks specifics. He explains the problems, discusses solutions. No other candidate has thus far, other than talking points and general "safe zone" dialogue.

You have learned the wrong lesson from Delaware. It was amazing that the GOP did so well there given that it is a very liberal state. The race there siphoned off a lot of Democrat donations as they had to fight hard just to keep that seat. The lesson is that Americans will support a very conservative candidate if that person shows some backbone a la Reagan.

I don't like anybody being treated as special. If a birth certificate is required by the Constitution then that is exactly what should be produced or else you can't run for President. There is a reason for a Natural Born Citizen being required to run for President...Educated people understand this.

As to Trump, I say Go Donald! You're smart, savvy, courageous and tough. The PPP would love to have Romney as the nominee...not you, LOL!

Trump = another rich greedy good ol boy.I can see DC backscratcher stores already selling out from massive lines of lobbyists anticipating a Trump run.I see he has his blogger army on his extensive payroll hitting every blog on the internet 2.What did he buy your pollsters PPP as well?Corporate America will love him,unless they have deals in China or Iraq.Lobbyists will love him but as usual the average working man will end up getting screwed by just another rich greedy good ol boy.Who no doubt crushed many an honnest buisnessman to get his billions.Ive had enough of multi millionares and billionares buying thier way into governments.Ask yourself this why would any man spend millions of thier own cash for a 400,000 per year job?Corruption is the only answer I can think of.No more good ol boys billionarees and multi millionares its time for honnesty to beat greed.

Beware of Trump, he has been a big supporter in the past, giving large contributions to Reid, Hillory, Schumer, and many of the left wing extremists. He thought also that Obama was going to be the best president of all time. I would exercise much caution, and hope you would consider why he now wants to cozy up to the Tea Party.Very suspicious.

Bush was scrutinized like no one else. Everyone else without exception. We the voters abide by our rules. We pay taxes. We follow all the rules. We have the right to know who this obscure man is. It is obvious that his handlers know all about him. The media has suppressed all the informaiton. BHO has spent millions to conceal everything. Where there is smoke, there is fire. The elites cannot pur out the fire. This fire is spreading all across the country. There will be abreaking point when everyone will jump in the "Birther" bandwagon. He will leave the WH in total disgrace and punishment which we cannot imagine. "Deportation"

None; they don't know the bulb is out because they've got their eyes shut and their hands over their ears and screaming "LALALALA CAN'T HEAR YOU" at people who point out the overwhelming evidence against their position.

Remember when H. Ross Parot ran as an independant in the 90s and leeched votes away from the Republicans? He did it because he knew that if Bush #1 were to get elected Bush would cut Welfare and Parot, whose company wrote the computer programs that run the welfare system, would have lost a lot of money. I think "the Donald is doing the same thing and struck a deal with Obama to help him get re-elected. What did he get in return? Think about it, Trump would lose a LOT of money being tied up with the presidency so why is he doing it,,,patriotism,,,I think not,,,he is all about the almighty dollar and nothing else.

I don't think most Republicans want Mr. Trump to run for President. I don't think most conservatives or libertarians want Mr. Trump to be their President. His popularity stems from the fact that he will say things the other Republicans won't. Mitt Romney clearly has better "presidential hair" than Donald Trump, but Mr. Romney is also clearly a graduate of the R.N.C. School of Zero-Content Communication. At that school establishment insiders learn how to: 1) talk a lot and say nothing, 2) make a speech at the end of which they have committed to nothing, and 3) pretend to stand for something while standing for nothing.

Unfortunately, in addition to having Mr. Romney as a distinguished alumnus, most of the other presidential candidates on the Republican side seem to be grads of that school, as well. People are excited by Mr. Trump because he is standing up and speaking his mind. He doesn't have to be right every time: he just has to appeal to a significant segment of the electorate every time he opens his mouth. Whether you can see it from your high horse or not, "birthers" are currently a big chunk of the folks who will (or won't) elect the next President of the U.S.A. Calling them all idiots and dismissing their concerns as stupid and irrelevant puts you squarely in the Obama camp; he could end the entire debate in a minute -- if he's legitimate -- but he'd rather snap his fingers -- and then extend the middle one -- at anyone who questions his greatness. I can put up with that in him, but when I hear so-called Republicans besmirching the "birthers" with equal vigor, I see a recipe for disaster.

Mr. Trump is showing that, to the extent it is possible, he's taking a "bigger tent" approach to courting the Republican electorate. I don't think he'll run, but I do wish some of the other Republican contenders would tear up their degrees from the Zero-Content School, and emulate Donald Trump's style of frankness, tenacity, and vision. Republicans sat through eight years of a President who seemed to stand for nothing. They mostly liked him, tolerated his weird wife and rotten kids, and waited for him to stand up to the Democrats, the liberals, and the forces of socialism and communism within our country. They waited in vain. I can sum up Mr. Trump's appeal in one statement: He seems like a guy who will stand up for something. Folks like that, in general, but they demand it in a leader. That's why Mr. Trump is leading in the polls.

I find it amusing and interesting reading all the American comments for/against Trump. Trump does add some spice to our lives now....especially those who follow politics.....it's certainly not boring listening to him.......but I've learn through the years...people who put their complete trust in a fellow human are like a "stunted bush in the desert."

I LIKE DONALD TRUMP MORE & MORE EACH DAY... HE'S GOT MY 100% SUPPORT! OUR COUNTRY NEEDS PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP! His no nonsense, straight forward, common sense approach combined with his education, phenomenal success in business at home and abroad, first hand experience in dealing with the Dems, and he has much love and respect for our great nation. YES, YES, YES... GOD BLESS AMERICA! TRUMP #45

All these polls have the same flaw.WE DO NOT HAVE A NATIONAL PRIMARY!The primary starts in Iowa where a gambler with three ex wives will not play well with the christian right.It then goes to New Hampshire where Romney has the edgeand A strong showing by PAUL is not out of the question. By the time it gets to round three Trump will be at 7%. Just ask Guiliani.

I see Obuma getting another four years if Trump dosn't run or a better choice doesn't surface. Trump looks to be the best choice at this time. And I believe he has ran a business, unlike the hollowman.

Only a stupid republican will support Trump for president. This was the man who called George W.Bush one of the worst presidents ever, supports hard-core liberals like Chuck Schumer, Pete Weiner, and Rahm Emanuel, and is awol on conservative values in the national debate.

I'm still waiting for an Astroturf movement trying to "draft" somebody like

* Lou Dobbs * General McChrystal * Charlton Heston (so what if he has dementia - he'll be the new Reagan. So what if he is dead - he'll be the new Lincoln!) * Victoria Jackson * Stephen Baldwin * Sheriff Joe Arpaio

This birth certificate stuff is very important to our country!!! If it is proven that Obama is not a legal US citizen, then everything he's ever signed since he became president is null and void. Including his health debacle. Why is he hiding his birth certificate anyway!?! He has produced a "Certificate of Live Birth", but this is not an OFFICIAL birth certificate!!! Anybody could have wrote this!

To Anonymous above me: You are wrong. The "Certificate of Live Birth" is an official birth certificate. It is the official legal document that one uses to get a passport. Look at what your own official birth certificate says on it. The State of Hawaii has confirmed that the document Obama made public is the official birth certificate. It is unreasonable, irrational, and just plain stupid to say otherwise.

I'm a conservative Republican, and NOT a stupid birther. I'm not for Romney either, though. But Trump? Good God, hell no.

Before you Dems get too smug about our idiot du jour, just remember - you elected Obama. And yes, I put him on the same level as Trump. Nothing but a phony, superficial empty suit, full of bullshit and rhetoric, just of a different ideological flavor (if you consider Trump's "ideology" ideology at all).

These Trumptards are the same mouth-breathing low-populist morons who voted for Ross Perot in 1992. They're the same idiots who, if presented with the text of Smoot-Hawley, would think it's a great idea. They're the idiots who don't know what Birchers are, and when presented with Bircher material (cough *Beck* cough) they eat it up as gospel. They call Karl Rove and George Will and Charles Krauthammer and Bill Kristol RINOs, for God's sake. Karl Rove! A RINO! (And then these anti-RINO yahoos threaten to vote Constitution Party, failing to see the irony in such a thing.)

Buckley must be sobbing as he rolls in his grave, God rest his dear soul.

We elected Tiger Woods President in 2008. We seem to be determined to run Snooki or The Situation against him. Jesus wept! Idiocracy has arrived!

I will admit at first I was amused at the spectacle of a Trump pseudocandidacy, because I thought he would take some of the air out of Snooki Palin's sails. He did indeed strip away all her birther supporters, or at least a big chunk of them. I thought it might make her decide to skip 2012, so I welcomed his interference - for about five minutes, anyway. When I saw how he seems to be taking this seriously, and how the MFM is hellbent on portraying all conservatives as f'ing BIRTHER morons, I changed my mind. So much for my dream of a diabolical plot to keep Snooki from mucking things up. *sigh*

Donald Trump gives more jobs and charity money to this country! all you haters are not even in his league! get things straight! he doesnt want to run but all these politicians YOU VOTED FOR have screwed us up and now he has to spend his millions to get in office to fix OUR mess that all you have created!OBUMMER YOUR FIRED!!!!!

Donald Trump is a very smart guy and he is right OBUMMER should show his Birth Certificate if we want to see it!!!!it should be our right as USA elected him!He should show it to us all where the hell is it and why cant we see it??also what has he evewr done for this country?? no one ever even knew him before he was president! DONALD TRUMP said that and he's right! DONALD TRUMP GIVES THOUSAND AND THOUSANDS OF JOBS TO OUR ECOMONY ALREADY! AND GIVES MILLIONS AND MILLIONS TO CHARITY! HIS OLDEST SON WORKS WITH ST JUDES!!! PEOPLE OPEN YOUR EYES HE DOESNT WANT TO EVEN RUN HE IS WORRIED ABOUT THIS COUNTRY!!!! WE NEED A SOLID MAN WITH SOME SKILLS FOR FINANCE AND BRAINS FOR GOD SAKE!!!~!OBUMMER YOUR FIRED!!!!!

Either the reporting on the poll results is sloppy/biased or the poll question itself was screwed up. What's missing in the poll "answer" that forms the basis for the headline is the word "only." If the poll asked, e.g. whether a person would "only" vote for a candidate that supports the birther theory, whether the person would vote for a candidate that "firmly rejects" the birther theory (without the word "only"), or was undecided on the question, as it appears on the face of the article given that the percentages add to 100, then the results are meaningless due to a bad question. If, on the other hand, the actual poll was worded correctly and the article screwed up the reporting, then the premise of the article gets reversed, as a significant percentage of republicans would ONLY vote for a candidate that firmly REJECTS the birther theory. This makes Republicans seem reasonable.