HOUSE DEMOCRATS HOLD AN EARLY FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE IN CRITICAL 2008 MATCHUPS

Substantial Shifts from Past Elections

[Links to seven tables, with historical details, appear
below prior to the Appendix]

Democratic incumbents with Republican challengers in the US House of
Representatives raised more money in 2007, and had more cash on hand at
the end of the year, than their Republican incumbent counterparts.
Furthermore, Democratic candidates for “open seats” that are currently
in Republican hands had a fundraising and cash on hand lead over their
Republican rivals. These represent significant changes from the 2005
and 2003 elections, when the partisan advantages were reversed.

These aggregate patterns were revealed in tables
released today by the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan
institute affiliated with George Washington University. The tables were
based on CFI’s analyses of the candidates’ year-end financial reports
filed with the Federal Election Commission on January 31.

CFI’s Executive Director Michael J. Malbin observed,
“The numbers are not good signs for the GOP. Republicans would like to
make up for some of the defeats they suffered in 2006. These financial
figures suggest that they'll have an uphill battle, especially if they
are hoping for gains.”

CFI’s analysis found that:

Democratic incumbents with announced challengers raised 29% more than their GOP
incumbent counterparts in 2007 (Table 1). In 2005, the same set of Republican incumbents was 16% ahead of the Democrats (Table 2).

In the battle for open seats,
an unusual financial picture is emerging so far – one strongly favoring
the Democrats. Traditionally, the average best-funded in-party
candidate would raise more than the best-funded opponent to defend an
open seat held by a departing member of the same party. This time, the
best-funded out-party Democrat – by a three-to-two margin on
average – has raised more than the best-funded in-party Republican in
contests for the 17 Republican-held open seats (Table 4).
Among these 17 Republican-held open seats, ten are generally considered
to be competitive. In these, the Democratic margin was almost
two-to-one (Table 6).
Equally significant is the fact than none of the three Democratic-held
seats that were open as of December 31 are currently considered to be
competitive.

Freshman representatives:
There are 53 first-term members of Congress (40 Democrats and 13
Republicans) but only 30 have active challengers so far who have filed
reports with the Federal Election Commission (24 Democrats, 6
Republicans). Among the 30 contested races, the 24 Democratic
incumbents have raised more on average than the 6 Republican
incumbents, and Democratic challengers have raised more on average than
Republican challengers. In 2005, by way of contrast, Republican
challengers in this category had raised more than their Democratic
counterparts by almost three-to-one (Table 3).

Potentially competitive races:
In all, 31 Republican incumbents and 34 Democrats (freshmen and
non-freshmen combined) are in races considered to be potentially
competitive. 25 of the Republicans and 28 of the Democrats have
challengers. In these seats, Democratic incumbents have raised an
average of $1.2 million to $910,881 for the Republicans. The Democratic
challengers have raised $494,084 to $367,490 for the best-funded
Republican challengers.

A more detailed discussion appears below (as an Appendix) of the
thirteen competitive seats held by incumbents (seven Democrat and six
Republican) in which a challenger has raised at least $500,000.
Financial summaries for all of the 75 potentially competitive
incumbent-challenger and open-seat races are listed individually in Table 7.

Key Categories of major party candidates:
Notwithstanding a few individual races that look promising for
Republicans, the aggregate numbers all look strong for the Democrats.
In each of the following critical sets of candidates, Democrats raised
more money than their GOP counterparts in 2007 and had more cash on hand at the end of the year:

In almost every one of these categories, Republicans held the financial edge at the end of 2003 and 2005.

The major reason for these results is not
that Republican money has dried up. Republicans in many of the bulleted
categories have done roughly as well as their counterparts of two years
ago. The most significant change is among Democrats, who seem to be on
a fundraising tear. Democratic incumbents with challengers, for
example, raised 43% more in 2007 than a similar group of Democratic
incumbents in 2005. In addition, the best-funded Democratic challengers
to Republican incumbents raised 63% more in 2007 than the counterpart
Democratic challengers of 2005 (see Table 2).
With nearly half of the election cycle still remaining, there is still
time for Republicans to catch up. But the year-end numbers highlight
the GOP’s anxiety as it looks toward the congressional elections of
2008.

Sources of funds:
The 2007 fundraising data underline the continuing importance of PAC
money for incumbents. Both parties’ incumbents received nearly half
their funds from PACs, while the latter provided less than 10% of
challengers’ funds. To make up for this shortfall, challengers in both
parties raised approximately a quarter of their funds in small
$200-and-under donations (compared to about 10% by incumbents),
although both incumbents and challengers still depended more on
$1,000-and-over donors (who provided 27% of incumbents' and 30% of
challengers' money. There was relatively little distinction among the
parties in these numbers. Self-funding was significant for challengers,
with Republicans about twice as dependent on it as Democrats (25%
vs.12% of funds respectively). (See Table 1.)

Democratic incumbents (7):
Several Republican challengers to incumbent freshmen put their
campaigns in a strong financial position in 2007. GOP candidates in
seven congressional districts have raised $500,000 or more. In
financial rank order, they are as follows.

NY-20: At the top of the list is Sandy
Treadwell, a former state party chair who raised $1.2 million in 2007,
about half of which was self-financing. Treadwell is one of three
Republicans running against Kirsten Gillibrand (D), whose $2.6 million
put her second among all candidates for 2007. Gillibrand defeated
incumbent Rep. John Sweeney in 2006, 53%-47%. In 2004, George W. Bush
received 53% of the district’s vote.

KS-2:
Coming in second among GOP challengers was former Rep. Jim Ryun, who
has raised $980,091 for a rematch against Democrat Nancy Boyda, who
raised $765,947. State Treasurer Nancy Jenkins – who is also running as
a Republican for the right to challenge Boyda -- raised $513,824 in
2007. At the end of the year, Boyda had $654,229 cash on hand, Jenkins
had $416,241 and Ryun had $364,789. Boyda won the election in 2006 with
51% of the vote to Ryun’s 47%. 59% of the district’s vote went to Bush
in 2004.

TX-22: Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R)
raised $869,790 for a rematch against Nick Lampson (D, $964,183).
Sekula-Gibbs is one of seven Republicans to file FEC reports as
challengers in this district. In 2006, she lost to Lampson, then a
former member, in a race for the seat vacated by Tom DeLay, receiving
42% of the vote as a write-in candidate. 64% of the district’s voters
supported Bush in 2004.

TX-23:
Francisco Canseco (R) has raised $849,656, mostly self-financed, in his
bid to unseat Ciro Rodriguez (D), who has raised $1.3 million.
Rodriguez had lost his original House seat in a 2004 primary after
mid-decade redistricting. In 2006, he defeated Henry Bonilla (R) in a
district that had to be redrawn after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in
June that the mid-decade redistricting in this part of the state
violated the Voting Rights Act. In a runoff election held in December
2006, Rodriguez defeated Bonilla 54% to 46%. 64% of the district’s
voters supported Bush in 2004.

PA-10:
Daniel Meuser has raised $652,319 (and fellow Republican Christopher
Hackett has raised $470,847) in their primary battle to challenge Chris
Carney (D), who raised nearly $1 million in 2007. In 2006, Carney won
53% of the vote to defeat incumbent Don Sherwood, who was damaged by
scandal. 60% of the district’s voters supported Bush in 2004.

FL-16:
Tom Rooney, whose family owns the Pittsburgh Steelers football team,
raised $553,748 in this race against freshman Tim Mahoney (D, $1.8
million). Two other Republicans, Councilman Hal Valeche and state
representative Gayle Harrell, have also raised more than $400,000. This
district had been represented by Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned from the
House in September 2006 after a scandal. The Republican candidate in
2006, Joe Negron, received 48% of the vote even though his name did not
appear on the ballot. 55% of the district’s voters supported Bush in
2004.

CA-11: Dean Andal (R), a former
state legislator, has raised $534,859 for his race against Jerry
McNerney (D, $1.3 million). In 2006, McNerney defeated Richard Pombo
53%-47% in a race targeted by environmental organizations. 54% of the
district’s voters supported Bush in 2004.

Republican incumbents (6):
The net effect of potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents may be
offset by Republican vulnerabilities. The following information
pertains to the six GOP incumbents facing challengers who had raised at
least $500,000 in 2007. They are listed in order of the best-funded
challenger’s receipts in each district.

MO-6: Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes has
raised $1 million in her challenge to four-term GOP Rep. Sam Graves
($1.2 million). Graves received 62% of the vote in 2006 and Bush
carried the district with 57% in 2004.

CT-2:
Jim Himes (D) raised $951,219 in to run against ten-term Republican
Christopher Shays, who raised $1.2 million. Shays was re-elected
52%-48% in 2006 in a district that gave John Kerry 52% of its
presidential vote in 2004.

IL-10: Daniel
Seals (D) has raised $900,233 for a rematch against four-term incumbent
Mark Kirk, who has raised $2.3 million. In 2006, Kirk spent 3.2 million
to Seals’ $1.9 million. The Republican Kirk won that election 53%-47%
in a district Kerry carried in 2004 with 52% of the vote.

WA-8:
Darcy Burner (D, $874,271) is in a rematch against two-term Rep. Dave
Reichert (R, $1.0 million). Reichert won each of his previous two
elections with less than 52% of the vote. Kerry won the district with
51% of the vote in 2004.

NY-29: Navy
veteran Eric Massa has raised $620,874 for a rematch again John (Randy)
Kuhl, a two-term Republican who raised $515,107 in 2007. Massa ran a
close race in 2006, which Kuhl won 51%-49%. Bush received 56% of the
southwestern New York district’s vote in 2004.

MI-7:
State Senator Mark Schauer (D, $577,133) is running against freshman
Rep. Timothy Walberg (R, $562,318). Walberg was elected in 2006 by
50%-46% of the general election vote, after a divisive primary. Bush
received 54% of the district’s vote in 2004.