BJP to get 40 seats in UP, 21 in Bihar: Survey

NEW DELHI: BJP would win 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a survey conducted by ABP News-Nielsen has predicted. The survey has given 21 seats for BJP in Bihar but in the event of Congress-RJD-LJP tie-up, BJP's is predicted to win only 16 seats.

Congress, RJD and LJP have already reached a seat-sharing arrangement and are in the final leg of negotiations on constituency allotment. According to the survey, BJP's rise in UP appears to be at the expense of all three opponents - Congress, BSP and SP.

The poll projection gave the Congress-RLD alliance 11 seats. Congress and RLD have 26 MPs in the present Lok Sabha. BSP's tally was projected to fall from 20 in 2009 to 13 and SP was predicted to win only 14 seats, compared to 23 it won in 2009.

BJP is set to get 33 per cent votes, BSP 22 per cent, SP 16 per cent and Congress 13 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party is projected to win 5 per cent votes and win its first seat in UP.

Congress' alliance in Bihar was predicted to win 14 seats and garner a vote share of 32 per cent. BJP with an identical vote share would still emerge winner, with 16 seats but its erstwhile partner JD (U)'s tally would be down to 8. If Congress, RJD and LJP fight separately, they are projected to win 2, 5 and 1 seats, respectively.

In this scenario, JD(U) is projected to win 9 seats with a vote share of 14 per cent. It seats comes down only by one while the vote share remains the same if Congress ties up with Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Pawan's parties.

The opinion poll was conducted in 20 parliamentary constituencies of UP between February 4 and 15, with a sample base of 4,537 respondents. In Bihar, the poll was conducted in 10 seats with 2,272 respondents.