19 January 2013

On Thursday 17 January 2013, Dr. Todd Curtis of AirSafe.com was interviewed on the Fox Business Network show 'Money with Melissa Francis' where he discussed the recent grounding of the 787 and the things that would have to happen for the public to regain confidence in this aircraft.

Issues included potential problems with the new battery technology used in the 787, the aircraft certification process, reducing aircraft risks, and how passenger fears can be reduced.

18 January 2013

Should you be afraid to fly on the 787? If you listen to or read some of the more dramatic stories from some media outlets, the 787 is a flying death trap that should scare the living daylights out of anyone who is even thinking of flying in one.

The FAA and other civil aviation organizations have taken the rare step of grounding an entire fleet of aircraft until a thorough investigation can find the cause of several recent incidents, most notably battery fires that occurred in two different 787 aircraft over the last couple of weeks, including a fire earlier this week that led to the evacuation of the 787 pictured below.

While the investigation continues, more than a few major media outlets are painting a rather dire picture, speculating that there may be serious, even fatal flaws in the aircraft design that could ruin the program, make airlines and passengers abandon the aircraft, and even bankrupt Boeing.

Is all this speculation supported by any facts? It is too early to tell. It could turn out that the worst fear mongering of the most irresponsible media outlets could turn out to be true. Perhaps it could also turn out that there is no serious problem at all, and within a few days the problem will be fixed and the 787 will be flying again.

The reality is that the truth will likely be somewhere between these two extremes, and the if the history of previous introductions of new airline models is any guide, it is very likely that end of the story of the 787 grounding will have an ending that is closer to the more benign extreme.

If you are a concerned future 787 passenger, what should you do? You should pay attention to the unfolding story and make up your own mind on whether you want to fly on a 787. Based on what usually happens in in the world of aircraft development, the story will most likely unfold in the following way:

Boeing, the current 787 customers, the FAA, the NTSB, and the Japanese aviation authorities, as well as other relevant parties, will get together and share relevant data about the design, certification, assembly, and operation of the 787.

Dozens or perhaps hundreds of the appropriate experts will work together to figure out what went wrong, why it went wrong, and what has to be done to fix the problem.

The FAA and Boeing will require that airline operators take a number of specific actions to resolve the key 787 issues, and all of these requirements will be openly shared with the general public.

The changes will be made, the aircraft will return to service, and all the relevant parties will follow the 787 very closely to ensure that the changes worked.

Sometime in the next few weeks or few months, normal production and service will resume.

My prediction is that as the investigation process moves forward, the media and concerned passengers will pay less and less attention to potential 787 safety issues.

Is this what will happen with the 787? Only time will tell, but if the past is any guide, the scenario laid out here will be the one you will most likely see.

11 January 2013

The 787 is a new aircraft model that is noteworthy for technological advancements and design features that set it apart from other airliner models. This week, the 787 has been noteworthy for all the wrong reasons.

On Monday, an onboard fire at Boston's Logan airport led to a formal NTSB incient investigation. Later in the week, there were three other incidents, including an incident with a second 787 at Boston. The week ended with the FAA ordering a comprehensive safety review of the 787.

On January 7th, a Japan Airlines 787 at Boston’s Logan Airport had a fire in a battery associated with the auxiliary power unit (APU), causing some damage to the area in the aft electronics bay close to the battery, and an injury to a firefighter. There was only a maintenance and cleaning crew on board, no passengers were injured.

On January 8th, another Japan Airlines 787, also at Boston, had a minor fuel problem that delayed a flight. This leak was from a vent designed to release fuel and was apparently caused by a fuel valve that was left open. The plane departed for Japan later that day.

On January 9th, the crew of an ANA 787 in Japan received an error message about the aircraft’s braking system, and the flight was cancelled. It was a false message and there were no problems with the brakes.

On January 11th, ANA reported that cracks appeared in a787 cockpit windshields, the third time this kind of event has occurred in their fleet of 17 aircraft.

NTSB investigationThe first incident was the most serious, and resulted in a formal investigation by the NTSB, an ongoing process that also involves Japan Airlines, Boeing, FAA, and Japan’s equivalent of the NTSB, the Japan Transport Safety Board. Normally this kind of investigation is launched when there is an accident. This fire was certainly not an accident as defined by the NTSB, but the NTSB’s reaction implies that this is being considered to be a serious event, very likely for at least a few reasons:

The 787 had a number of prior incidents since entering passenger service last year.

The aircraft also had a number of development issues that delayed commercial flights for several years.

In addition to the incidents this week, prior incidents and issues include the following:

A November 2010 fire during a test flight that forced an emergency landing in Laredo, TX. The problem was traced to an electrical power distribution panel, and flight testing was halted for two months while the panel was redesigned.

A July 2012 engine failure during a taxi test of newly manufactured 787.

An electrical problem led to a December 2012 emergency landing of a United 787, and United later found a related electrical problem on another 787.

A grounding of a Qatar 787, also in December 2012, after finding a similar electrical problem.

A December 2012 FAA Airworthiness Directive (AD 2012-24-07) requiring 787 operators to inspect part of the engine fuel system for possible improper installations.

FAA comprehensive system reviewOn Friday January 11th, the FAA announced that it would undertake a comprehensive review of critical 787 systems, including how those systems were designed, manufactured, and assembled. This goes well beyond the electrical system that was involved in the fire at Boson's Logan Airport, and is separate from the NTSB investigation.

What does this mean for passengers?Taken together, these incidents and issues don’t add up to a safety concern for passengers because there is so far no consistent pattern to these problems, and none of these past problems have led to any serious aircraft damage or to any injury to passengers or crew.

The recent NTSB investigation may have been launched in part because it is a new model and because there may be useful insights gained from thoroughly investigating incidents such as the Boston APU fire. There are currently fewer than 50 787s in commercial service, with over a third of the aircraft being delivered only in the past three months, and with six of the eight operators having fewer than six months experience flying this model.

As operators around the world gain more operational experience with the 787, there will certainly be more incidents. However, unless several of these incidents have one or more causes that are unique to the 787, there would be no real reason to suspect that the aircraft has some sort of issue exposes passengers to excessive safety risks.

Is it safe to fly on the Boeing 787?
If you define safety as an acceptable risk, then the 787 is safe to fly because there is nothing that currently indicates that the 787 has a much greater likelihood of experiencing safety-related problems compared to other large jet airliners. However, that answer may change as a result of the current NTSB investigation or if problems are discovered as airlines gain more operational experience.

09 January 2013

Earlier this week on January 7th, a Japan Airlines 787 at Boston's Logan Airport had a fire in the auxiliary power unit (APU) compartment of the aircraft, causing some damage to the aircraft and an injury to a firefighter. There was only a maintenance and cleaning crew on board, no passengers were injured, and as the NTSB photo below shows, there was relatively little fire damage in the APU compartment.

While most APU fires which cause minor damage don't usually merit much in the way of attention by either the news media or the NTSB, this event was different. The NTSB launched an investigation that included representatives from Boeing, FAA, Japan Airlines, and the Japan Transport Safety Board. This kind of involvement by multiple agencies usually happens for either accidents or very serious incidents. This was certainly not an accident as defined by the NTSB, but the NTSB's reaction implies that this is being considered to be a serious event, very likely for at least a couple of reasons:

The 787 had a number of prior incidents since entering passenger service last year, including an electrical problem that led to an emergency landing of a United 787 in New Orleans in December 2012, just a month after United began flying this aircraft model.

The 787 had a number of development issues that delayed commercial flights for several years.

This fire very likely heightened public attention for the 787 and led to a couple of minor incidents getting a higher than usual amount of national and international media attention. On January 8th, the day after the APU fire at Boston, another Japan Airlines 787, also at Boston, had a minor fuel problem that delayed a flight. About 40 gallons of fuel leaked from the aircraft. This leak was from a vent designed to release fuel rather than from a broken fuel line or some other system malfunction. The plane departed for Japan later that day.

The following day, on Janury 9th, ANA airlines in Japan, which was the first airline to operate the 787, cancelled a flight after the crew received an error message concerning the braking system. These last two events are so minor that the airlines are not required to report them to the FAA, NTSB, or similar civil aviation authorities in other countries.

Why is this happening to the 787?Boeing's development of the 787 was different in two significant ways from that were a significant departure from previous large passenger jets. The first difference was the extensive use of composite materials for major components of the aircraft structure, and the second was the extensive use of contractors to design and build major aircraft systems, work that previously had been by Boeing.

Neither of these facts explain why these incidents have occurred. While many of the incidents that have occurred have involved the 787 fuel and electrical systems, there is nothing to directly several recent 787 incidents, including the following:

An electrical problem that forced the December 2012 emergency landing, along with a related electrical problem found later in another United 787.

A grounding of a Qatar 787, also in December 2012, after finding a similar electrical problem.

A July 2012 engine failure during a taxi test of newly manufactured 787

A December FAA Airworthiness Directive (AD 2012-24-07) requiring 787 operators to inspect part of the engine fuel system for possible improper installations.

What does this mean for passengers?Unless the NTSB, FAA, Boeing, or the current 787 operators find something significant that may affect the safety of the 787, the recent events, however dramatic, are not a cause for concern. The 787 is a new aircraft model that currently has fewer than 50 aircraft in service, with over a third of the aircraft being delivered only in the past three months, and with six of the eight operators having fewer than six months experience flying this model. The first commercial flight was in October 2011, and Japan Airlines only began flying the aircraft in April 2012.

The recent NTSB investigation may have been launched in part because it is a new model and because there may be useful insights gained from thoroughly investigating incidents such as the Boston APU fire. As operators around the world gain more operational experience with the 787, there will certainly be more incidents. However, unless several of these incidents have one or more causes that are both related and unexpected, there would be real reason to suspect that the 787 has some sort of issue that is exposing passengers and crews to excessive safety risks.

Is it safe to fly on the 787?If you define safety as an acceptable risk, then the 787 is safe to fly because there is nothing that currently indicates that the 787 has a much greater likelihood of experiencing safety-related problems compared to other large jet airliners. However, that answer may change as a result of the current NTSB investigation or after the airlines flying the 787 gain greater operational experience.

01 January 2013

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Who is this Book For?
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How to get this book
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