Anticipations of the likely humanitarian and economic consequences of
war on Iraq

"...all except the most privileged have completely exhausted
their cash assets and have also in most cases disposed of their material
assets. Accordingly, the bulk of the population is now totally dependent
on the Government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic
needs and, unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping
if they cannot access them: the sanctions regime, if anything, has served
to increase dependence on the Government as almost the sole provider."(UN assessment of likely humanitarian
scenarios, 10 December 2002)

Note: This page has not been updated since the end
of the war, and thus reflects anticipated rather than actual outcomes.

CASI's main focus remains the economic sanctions imposed
on Iraq by the UN Security Council, which we believe have been a central
factor in the collapse of Iraq's infrastructure, economy, and living conditions
over the last twelve years. However, we aim to provide information about
the humanitarian situation in Iraq in its totality, and are concerned
about the effects of the recent war against this vulnerable and impoverished
population.

This webpage is part of a project which attempted to bring together information
about the possible humanitarian and economic consequences of war on Iraq,
with annotated links to the various relevant reports and assessments which
have been published recently.

General humanitarian assessments

"Likely Humanitarian
Scenarios", a draft internal UN document on possible scenarios
for a war on Iraq, dated 10 December 2002. A summary and further comments
on the context of this document are here. A 4-page A5 booklet
summarising the document is also available.

Save the Children UK. "The Humanitarian
Implications of Military Action against Iraq". Position statement
of 4 September 2002. "large-scale military intervention would greatly
exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Iraq, casting serious doubt on the
wisdom of such an endeavour." The accompanying press release (13 September
2002) is here.

Segment from panel discussion: Warner
Schilling, professor emeritus of international relations at Columbia
University, predicts a higher level of Iraqi civilian casualties than
in the 1991 Gulf War.

International Rescue Committee. Briefing for US Senate on "the
alarming lack of preparedness for emergency relief operations and reconstruction
efforts in the event of a war in Iraq". Oral and written versions, both dated 11
March 2003.

UNICEF Iraq
donor update. General report on UNICEF humanitarian operations in
Iraq, but also provides information on UNICEF planning for conflict (14
January 2003)

UNICEFpress release. "Will
they survive war? UNICEF racing to bolster the strength of 400,000 malnourished
children in Iraq" (14 March 2003)

Oxfam briefing note "Iraq: on the brink
of disaster". See also Oxfam's letter to the
UN Security Council president on the issue, and statement of December 2002,
entitled "Military action on Iraq could trigger a major humanitarian crisis".
(added 16 March 2003)

Save the Childrensubmission
to the International Development Select Committee (added 16 March 2003)

Economic consequences

Nordhaus, William. "The Economic Consequences
of a War with Iraq". "Given the salience of cost, it is surprising
that there has been no systematic public analysis of the economics of
the coming conflict in Iraq. This essay is written in an attempt to fill
the gap."