Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn WNW-ward and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Super Typhoon (Category 4) by Saturday (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

RAGGED/CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Agrihan Island (Northernmost Marianas).Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Pagan & Alamagan Islands (Northernmost Marianas). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1006 MB) strengthening over the Philippine Sea, as it is being pushed slowly SW-ward by the mighty Typhoon MA-ON located to its NE. This LPA is likely to become a Tropical Depression within the next 06-24 hours. Its possible center was located near lat 13.6N lon 132.0E...about 820 km East of Bicol Region, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 80% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY:MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 14 JULY POSITION: 20.1N 146.2E.*TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEASTOF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140328Z AMSREMICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAGGED EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPINGINTO THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THECURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 14/0532Z PGTW FIX AND THEAFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THECURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 08W IS LOCATEDBENEATH A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCEALOFT AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPORIMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING THESYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BYTROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 08W IS CURRENTLYTRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICALRIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUETRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY ASIT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREESCELSIUS) AND REMAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEING TRACKING INCREASINGLYPOLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES THE STEERING RIDGE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TORECEDE TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ASTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, TY 08W IS NOT EXPECTED TOWEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN KYUSHU. NUMERICALMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGHTAU 48, BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF AREINDICATING A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIERWEAKENING AND RECEDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GFDN IS ALSODEPICTING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. EGRRREMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEMRAPIDLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT CYCLONEINTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTPHILIPPINE SEA, BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THISFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, FAVORING ATRACK SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 IN FAVOR OF A MORESOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN NUMERICALMODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS, THE FORECAST AT TAU 120 IS SLIGHTLEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTSUNTIL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...(more info)