The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.

Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

April 2012: 3rd warmest on recordApril 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.

Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - April on recordNOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.

Remember 13 that the 00z and 12z runs always have the best data incorporated.

That's why I've found it odd that the last two 12z runs of the GFS have been seemingly very unreliable and inconsistent compared with the other runs... Yesterday's 12z showed a hurricane hitting south Florida... The track made sense but intensity seemed way over done... And then today's 12z the intensity made sense but the track towards Tampa seemed very unlikely. The 0z tonight will probably tell the real story, whatever that may be.

Dating wasn't difficult in the 1700's. But getting permission from King was.

They we're a tad overbearing with the Tea and That A& P outfit, I mean, Lafitte never had the problems the Americans had, till, well, New Orleans and that didnt fare to well fer dem downriver in Chalmette,

The SWPC in Boulder issued a flare alert after an M-class flare in active region 11476. Here is an EVE plot from noon today showing the history of spectral irradiances. We usually look at the blue line in the top panel, the ESP 0.1-7 nm radiometer. It is very similar to the GOES X-ray measurements. The M-class flare is the spike in the blue line just after 0400 UT today. The dark count is a measure of the energetic particles hitting SDO and usually rises around 1800 UT each day because of the Earth's radiation belts.

Quoting hydrus:I would guess 1550 miles from the Carolina,s. Considering the Carolina,s jut so far out into the Atlantic. I think thats why the Carolina,s get hit so much. 1999,s Floyd was the worst Carolina,s hurricane in many years...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:That's why I've found it odd that the last two 12z runs of the GFS have been seemingly very unreliable and inconsistent compared with the other runs... Yesterday's 12z showed a hurricane hitting south Florida... The track made sense but intensity seemed way over done... And then today's 12z the intensity made sense but the track towards Tampa seemed very unlikely. The 0z tonight will probably tell the real story, whatever that may be.

1295 bohonkweatherman: We had tree experts on the Local News last night saying the Drought in parts of Texas last year was the worst drought for some parts since the 1700's? I am not sure how they could tell...1305 bappit: Get enough tree rings and you'd know. Live oaks and bald cypress are long-lived trees. Found this article on a study published here if that helps.1318 DavidHOUTX: Thanks for that information. I was stating it would be difficult to date back to the 1700s.

Don't need long-lived species to create records extending well past short-lived species lifespans, just a continuity of preserved trees that overlapped parts of their lifespans. DendrochronologyEven preserved lumber can be used as samples for the purpose of such crossdating.In areas in which trees lived near long-lived streams, rivers, watering holes, ponds, or lakes, one can crosscheck (and also further extend crossdates) by comparing yearly sediment layers against yearly growth in tree rings.

What can old Texas trees teach us about our climate? One researcher is finding out. Follow Dr. Malcolm Cleaveland from the University of Arkansas as he taps the secrets of the cypress trees and learns the warnings they may hold for water planners. See how tree rings give clues to years of drought and floods.

Dr. Rick Knabb with TWC has a video up on the TWC website talking about what the GFS is doing with this potential system... Basically he said the GFS runs developing the system are bogus and not to be trusted, so he's very pessimistic on development chances.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:Dr. Rick Knabb with TWC has a video up on the TWC website talking about what the GFS is doing with this potential system... Basically he said the GFS runs developing the system are bogus and not to be trusted, so he's very pessimistic on development chances.

The sad thing is, he discards it without even looking at the atmospheric pattern at the time. If he would look, he would notice that the pattern favors tropical development and that it has occurred in this pattern plenty of times before.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:The sad thing is, he discards it without even looking at the atmospheric pattern at the time. If he would look, he would notice that the pattern favors tropical development and that it has occurred in this pattern plenty of times before.

Exactly. I have noticed the tropics love to show a blatant disregard for meteorologists as well.