leadpipe wrote:If Waiters has any chance in developing into the kind of player you find on winning team, well, throw that chance out the window if you bring Shabazz in there to do stupid shit along with him.

And yes, exactly.

The Waiters and Kyrie mixture is volatile enough, Shabazz is fucking napalm to it.

He plays hard, he'll D (he's going to end up only guarding two guards though, which is a problem with Waiters), but he doesn't pass, he isn't efficient and he isn't athletic enough to really be a force.

JJN wrote:2. There is no reason to believe that Shabazz will be anything more than a scorer.

OK. Sign me up. casue I seen he has mad skeelz to do that.

If all you want is a scorer, then you take McLemore. Shorter than Shabazz, but way more efficient and way more athletic. Additionally, he won't be the worst passing player to be taken in the first round since Michael Beasley (who averaged over 1 assist per game his freshman year, something Shabazz did not).

The Waiters and TT rumors are centered around real bona-fide NBA players and if you do trade Waiters for a LA or Love you draft Porter or Oladipo then, not the single most selfish player in college basketball.

There is a reason teams become the Sacramento Kings and teams like the Warriors make their leap with guys like Barnes and Thompson around Curry.

Olapido* & Otto are good. If the Cavaliers could get out from under Waiters and slip into some Pido, that'd be a nice swap, and I think he carries a little more upside than Otto, as much as Doris Burke & I love Otto. Shabazz is poop. McLemore is pretty much Harrison Barnes with a superior school choice. DX has Trey Burke as a Top 5 prospect? WTF? I think Cody Zeller has some untapped potential, especially considering Creen went all 3-jacky Matta/Oden on him (and without an injury excuse). Shabazz really is poop. I'd be surprised that Olynyk is so low if it weren't for the Bad Hair Zag burden he's carrying into the NBA, courtesy of Adam Morrison. But he's a 7-footer with a legit offensive game--how is that a mid 1st prospect? Plumlee (especially) and Dieng are stiffs. The Adams guy from Pitt is an interesting project. Nerlens Noel is, of course, the most irresistible combination of Name + Hair + BLOX that I can remember, so clearly you have to take him if you can.

A poisonous roster can ruin just about anyone in the NBA. Reke has actually gone backwards from his rookie year, badly and that roster/collection of idiots is a big part of it. Similar to what happened last year once Miles and Speights refused to try for Scott anymore and called him or for making them practice too much then the youth on the team rebelled as well, you need a healthy environment to grow a large collection of young players in this league.

e0y2e3 wrote:PS: Shabazz was not a hyper elite scorer this year and hasn't been "elite" since he was shitting on kids younger than him in HS

How do you single him out for that in HS?

I liked what i saw of bazz alot in the all star games, so I have bias. He looked pretty athletic to me. IDK what to think about 1 year in college ball, really. I like his 18 / 5 line alot, he was recognized with some nice post season honors, and all that is said about him is probably true. I just can't help but wonder if that's all he'll ever be.

A 19 year old lying about his age and beating up on 17/18 year olds matters far more than an 18 year old being viewed as having elite upside because he is 18. The age situation with Shabazz only matters to me in that it clouded his ceiling as viewed coming out of college. A lot of his hype was centered around "holy crap this kid is 18 and is killing every other 18 and 19 year old out there". Now he's played against kids his own age and hasn't shown nearly as well.

The age issue doesn't matter hugely to me, but from the perspective of it added a ton to his pre-college hype it needs to be considered.

HoodooMan wrote:Olapido* & Otto are good. If the Cavaliers could get out from under Waiters and slip into some Pido, that'd be a nice swap, and I think he carries a little more upside than Otto, as much as Doris Burke & I love Otto.

Porter has more upside than Oladipo. Otto is 2 years younger and never played AAU ball, which Victor has, meaning he hasn't access to higher level competition and coaching for as long (this is also the argument for the upside of McLemore). Additionally, Victor can't handle the ball. At all. Otto isn't going to be torching fools, but he isn't a turnover waiting to happen on anything other than a straight drive.

HoodooMan wrote:McLemore is pretty much Harrison Barnes with a superior school choice.

McLemore has had basically one year (this year at Kansas) of good coaching outside his AAU play, where they played him at the 4. He is really efficient, much more than Barnes was (10% better true shooting and 0.2 points per play higher), and he can actually translate his crazy athleticism into plays, something Barnes can only do on defense. McLemore has a long way to go, but he is one of the few players with star potential in this draft.

HoodooMan wrote:DX has Trey Burke as a Top 5 prospect? WTF?

Burke's stock had been increasing all year, he has really improved his performance since last season, and then he went crazy in the tourney. This propelled him into the lottery, probably in the 8-13 range. Then Marcus Smart went back to school, pushing all point guards up a slot. Smart could have contended for the no. 1 pock depending on who landed it. Burke isn't an option there, but teams need PGs. He isn't Kyrie Irving, but he could be Ty Lawson or Kemba Walker. I think he will have a solid, if unspectacular career, probably a Mo Williams who doesn't wilt in the moment.

HoodooMan wrote:I'd be surprised that Olynyk is so low if it weren't for the Bad Hair Zag burden he's carrying into the NBA, courtesy of Adam Morrison. But he's a 7-footer with a legit offensive game--how is that a mid 1st prospect?

Not athletic, not a great rebounder, not a great defender. He might be very good offensively, but he will probably get destroyed on the other end.

HoodooMan wrote:Plumlee (especially) and Dieng are stiffs. The Adams guy from Pitt is an interesting project. Nerlens Noel is, of course, the most irresistible combination of Name + Hair + BLOX that I can remember, so clearly you have to take him if you can.

The last two years have gone a long way towards proving my thesis that defense prowess resides in awesome hair. I've been gathering experimental evidence by growing a unibrow and flat top myself, then going to the Y and crushing the shot of anyone who comes near the rim. I'm starting to grow a thick mustache and soul patch a la Artis Gilmore, and have noticed that the more it grows, the more my face smooshes and shifts towards resembling Dikembe Mutombo.

<-- not going to get into a pedo v. Potter upside debate, as tomayto tomahto.

<-- also not going to get into a debate defending McLemore v. Barnes, because "can't beat anyone off the dribble" is can't beat anyone off the dribble. Barnes w/ a good PG was also way more efficient than Barnes w/out a good PG and really, really, really impacted his numbers.

In a dream world the Cavs get #1 and land Nole and then draft one of the huge upside foreign SFs at 19 and they live up to their potential.

I don't see any feasible way these two things happen, but that honestly is the best way to turn the team around.

In the real world you probably are ending up with Otto and then either a high upside Euro to stash at 19 (not a terrible idea since having too many rookies and second year players makes team uncoachable) or a high upside center to D-League.

BTW: I'd really like to see them stash a few foreign guys this year and bring no more than two rookies too camp. If they want to unload those 2nd rounders to move up again I'd be fine w/ that but stashing picks is probably the best course of action. Power in numbers and stuff.

We could always trade up as well, given that we have 2 early 2nd round picks. I kind of hope that we actually keep our second rounders and take some more seasoned role players or a role player and a high upside guy, rather than moving them for more 2nd rounders down the road. Speights, Walton, Livingston, Ellington, Gibson, and Casspi could all be gone. Bringing in some vet FAs and taking someone like Nate Wolters to replace Gibson or Mike Muscala to replace Speights provides you with a kid who has gone all the way through college and been a leader on a team already, despite it being at a lower level. You can also run them through your training camp to introduce them to how you want to play, but let them season in the D league.

I also like Glen Rice out of the D league, I think he could be that JR Smith type of guy that comes and just gets really hot from everywhere. Athletic and a great shooter, and seems to have turned his life around. He also already has a year of pro experience, and has bounced back from a bunch of (self caused) adversity. I would definitely interview the shit out of him before taking him though.

Could do worse with a high 2nd round pick. Seems to be more efficient than Smith. 3rd in WS/48, 4th in Off Rat, 5th in True Shooting and eFG%, T-3rd in PPP. 18/8/2.5 as a starter and 25/9.5/4.2/2/2 in the D league playoffs. That can't be worse than the shit salad we have been throwing out there the last three years.

Oh I didn't mean anything at all about Rice, I meant (seriously) that 2013 being the year JR Smith became a huge asset might be the most unbelievable thing in the history of the NBA. Even more so than TT learning to dunk at age 20.

JJN wrote:Porter has more upside than Oladipo. Otto is 2 years younger and never played AAU ball, which Victor has, meaning he hasn't access to higher level competition and coaching for as long (this is also the argument for the upside of McLemore). Additionally, Victor can't handle the ball. At all. Otto isn't going to be torching fools, but he isn't a turnover waiting to happen on anything other than a straight drive.

I can't really argue this too hard, because I really like them both a lot. Otto's roll changed a lot from his freshman year to this past, but during his first year at Gtown, his BBIQ was Kyrie-level off the charts for a CBBer. Then he comes in this year with a much improved outside shot on top of all that...I really like Otto a lot. But there's an awful lot to like about Olapido*, too, and the primary reason I give him the edge in upside over Otto is athleticism. I don't think either of them are likely to be stars, but I think Olapido* has a little more flash. Eh.

JJN wrote:McLemore has had basically one year (this year at Kansas) of good coaching outside his AAU play, where they played him at the 4. He is really efficient, much more than Barnes was (10% better true shooting and 0.2 points per play higher), and he can actually translate his crazy athleticism into plays, something Barnes can only do on defense. McLemore has a long way to go, but he is one of the few players with star potential in this draft.

It doesn't surprise me that he's statistically ahead of HB, since he didn't have HB's early struggles in college. But I just think they're strikingly similar prospects. Both kind of look like NBA athletes, but it often feels like a tease, because it seems you rarely see it. Nice outside shots (BM's a little > HB's), neither of them very strong off the dribble, both nice defenders, both frustratingly passive on offense. And because it seems the ideal program to enter as That Player is Kansas, since as a 2/3 at KU all you're really being asked to do is 1) play defense, 2) make the right pass, and 3) make open 3s--this system fit feels to me like the greatest difference between the two as prospects. But, then, who can blame HB for not wanting to go to Kansas, when he grew up in fucking Iowa.

JJN wrote:Burke's stock had been increasing all year, he has really improved his performance since last season, and then he went crazy in the tourney. This propelled him into the lottery, probably in the 8-13 range. Then Marcus Smart went back to school, pushing all point guards up a slot. Smart could have contended for the no. 1 pock depending on who landed it. Burke isn't an option there, but teams need PGs. He isn't Kyrie Irving, but he could be Ty Lawson or Kemba Walker. I think he will have a solid, if unspectacular career, probably a Mo Williams who doesn't wilt in the moment.

I get all that about the tourney helping his stock and whatnot, but Burke just screams College PG Star/NBA Nobody to me. I think he was a talented player, but often not a very good PG. Even when he was being shut down by the likes of Pido, he looked for his own shot far more often than he bothered to get his (rather talented) teammates involved--and drive & kick seemed to be his only understanding of how to ever accomplish that (part system, but part--WTF?). And who else is to blame for that offense looking as rudderless & ugly as it often did this past year, despite all that talent?

JJN wrote:The last two years have gone a long way towards proving my thesis that defense prowess resides in awesome hair. I've been gathering experimental evidence by growing a unibrow and flat top myself, then going to the Y and crushing the shot of anyone who comes near the rim. I'm starting to grow a thick mustache and soul patch a la Artis Gilmore, and have noticed that the more it grows, the more my face smooshes and shifts towards resembling Dikembe Mutombo.

e0y2e3 wrote:Oh I didn't mean anything at all about Rice, I meant (seriously) that 2013 being the year JR Smith became a huge asset might be the most unbelievable thing in the history of the NBA. Even more so than TT learning to dunk at age 20.

Gotcha. There is one thing that could make this year even stranger, which is ZBo leading a team to a championship. Griz probably have a good a shot at beating Miami as anyone, especially with a destroyed Chicago showing how much physical play takes Miami out of their game.

HoodooMan wrote:

JJN wrote:Porter has more upside than Oladipo. Otto is 2 years younger and never played AAU ball, which Victor has, meaning he hasn't access to higher level competition and coaching for as long (this is also the argument for the upside of McLemore). Additionally, Victor can't handle the ball. At all. Otto isn't going to be torching fools, but he isn't a turnover waiting to happen on anything other than a straight drive.

I can't really argue this too hard, because I really like them both a lot. Otto's roll changed a lot from his freshman year to this past, but during his first year at Gtown, his BBIQ was Kyrie-level off the charts for a CBBer. Then he comes in this year with a much improved outside shot on top of all that...I really like Otto a lot. But there's an awful lot to like about Olapido*, too, and the primary reason I give him the edge in upside over Otto is athleticism. I don't think either of them are likely to be stars, but I think Olapido* has a little more flash. Eh.

I really like Oladipo. He is a tremendously hard worker and is likely to improve his game, and I would really have no issue with him being the pick. The thing about Oladipo is that he is already physically much closer to his peak than Porter is. Porter's athleticism should benefit from the NBA strength training he will receive. He will never be as athletic as Oladipo, but he should be athletic enough. (I would also note that I am worried that Oladipo's shooting was a fluke, as he took under 2 3pt shots per game, and previously only hit 30% and 20% from deep. Porter shot nearly the same percentage on one and a half more 3's per game this season.)

What worries me about Oladipo is his upside specifically for this team. 6'5 is just really short for a SF, which is where he would need most of his minutes unless we trade Waiters (and this creates a mess of other issues with who will create other than Kyrie). Yes, he is really athletic and long, but he is short for the position. Even though Iggy is listed at 6'6", his in shoes measurement was 6'6.75".

When Hardwood Paroxysm (links below) looked at what combine measurements are most indicative of success in the NBA, they found that height only seemed to be really important at the SF position, and that athleticism at the 3 is a nice add on, but not indicative of success. Athleticism is important for SGs in terms of success though.

Of course this doesn't mean that Oladipo or Porter will or won't be successful just because they measure a certain way. What this does say to me though is that if you have two players who you see as having the same value, you should be pick the taller, more skilled player if you are drafting to fill your SF spot, and take the more athletic player if you are looking to fill the 2-guard. Porter is definitely taller, and I think there is little argument that he is more offensively skilled than Oladipo is.

JJN wrote:What worries me about Oladipo is his upside specifically for this team. 6'5 is just really short for a SF, which is where he would need most of his minutes unless we trade Waiters (and this creates a mess of other issues with who will create other than Kyrie). Yes, he is really athletic and long, but he is short for the position. Even though Iggy is listed at 6'6", his in shoes measurement was 6'6.75".

I agree that Pido is a SG. I'm not sure I agree that Dion Waiters' presence on the roster should impact the Cavaliers' decision, but I assume they do and it will.

Mostly, I just hope it's one of Noel/Pido/Porter, and not more out-of-left-field BS.

I agree that if they see a SG as the best prospect that they should select him, but with the dearth of talent on this team, two players who play the same position seems like a bit of a luxury that we can't afford. If Pido is their guy, I won't be upset that they took him, I just don't think there is a meaningful difference between Porter and Pido in terms of production.

I also doubt that they are going to change Waiters's role for anyone in this draft. They liked him enough to take him over a lot of players who were considered better picks last year, and he rated really highly in college based on the analytics magic. So yes, he might ultimately end up coming off the bench, but I think that they are going to give him quite a bit of run as a starter before deciding to make changes.

One name that I have seen popping up a bit the last few days for our #19 pick has been Sergey Karasev out of Russia. Already a 3 year pro at 19, and has been playing really well against high level competition. Not likely to slow down anyone, and couldn't leap a rock in a single bound, but this kid can shoot (49% on 4.6 threes per game).

Maybe I'm confused here. It sounds to me that you guys think Pido and Porter are the same player or same position. Pido is a 6'5 shooting guard who shot 44% on 3s this year, but 20% and 30% the previous two years. Pido shot 75% at the FT line. Waiters shot 35% on 3s and 81% on FTs during his 2 years at Cuse. Pido certainly improved his game this past year and shot up draft boards. And he is more athletic than Waiters and more of an impact player. But aren't their games similar in style? I mean, if I have Waiters, and I want to upgrade the 2-gd spot, I want him to do something differently than Waiters can... namely shoot. In that regard, isnt McLemore the better upgrade? McLemore shot 42% on 3s (but is considered a better shooter) and 87% on FTs

Porter is 6'8 with a wingspan > 7'0. He shot 42% on 3s and 78% on FTs.

If we think Pido is a SF then this is a no brainer, you draft Porter. If Pido is a 2Gd, you'd have to consider McLemore first. If we're not sure what position Pido is, that concerns me as well.

Perhaps we aren't including McLemore in the conversation because we thing he will be gone. But if its between Porter and Pido, I am all in on Porter.

"The nose of the bulldog has been slanted backwards so that he can breathe without letting go." -- Winston Churchill

This teams needs, regardless of position are aggressive interior defender that can score a little and perimeter defender that can hit his open threes. I don't care if those players at C/PF or SF/SG.

And if Oladipo really has a 6'11 reach that makes things interesting.

And being a first guard off the bench in the NBA is no longer a bad thing, you've had guys like Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford and now JR Smith make very good careers out of it that have also included a lot of notoriety. And I'm not even touching on Manu and Harden being sixth men....

OldDawg wrote:Maybe I'm confused here. It sounds to me that you guys think Pido and Porter are the same player or same position.

We are basically arguing if it Pido can play SF most of the time, and whether or not we should take him over Porter.

e0y2e3 wrote:This teams needs, regardless of position are aggressive interior defender that can score a little and perimeter defender that can hit his open threes. I don't care if those players at C/PF or SF/SG.

I don't disagree.

e0y2e3 wrote:And being a first guard off the bench in the NBA is no longer a bad thing, you've had guys like Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford and now JR Smith make very good careers out of it that have also included a lot of notoriety. And I'm not even touching on Manu and Harden being sixth men....

I don't disagree here either, but most of those teams already had an established starting lineup. Terry didn't start coming off the bench until Kidd was in Dallas, Crawford was a starter nearly every season until he got to Atlanta, and the Thunder and Spurs each had two stars in their starting lineups. I don't really mind the idea of Waiters coming off the bench, but I think we have too many holes in the starting lineup to worry about moving him around yet.

You don't win in the NBA without 7-8 high quality players. Right now unless that player is a PG you still take the best player available the fits your needs, regardless of position.

The Cavs desperately need defense and threes. Like that defense is abysmal and CJ Miles being your best deep threat is a laughable joke.

Having two SGs and still having two major holes on the roster is no worse than having a SF and SG with no back-up SG (especially with how ball dominant Waiters is and the already obvious chemistry issues between him and Kyrie).

e0y2e3 wrote:This teams needs, regardless of position are aggressive interior defender that can score a little and perimeter defender that can hit his open threes. I don't care if those players at C/PF or SF/SG.

e0y2e3 wrote:You don't win in the NBA without 7-8 high quality players. Right now unless that player is a PG you still take the best player available the fits your needs, regardless of position.

The Cavs desperately need defense and threes. Like that defense is abysmal and CJ Miles being your best deep threat is a laughable joke.

Having two SGs and still having two major holes on the roster is no worse than having a SF and SG with no back-up SG (especially with how ball dominant Waiters is and the already obvious chemistry issues between him and Kyrie).

And who is the best player available?Most say Noel and McLemore are the top two. Porter, Pido, Bennett and a couple others seem to share time at the 3rd pick spot. If we are picking, and the guys we are choosing from are basically even, then you go on greatest need.

I don't hear any buzz about McLemore on here. Do we all think Pido is better? Or do we all think McLemore will be gone?

"The nose of the bulldog has been slanted backwards so that he can breathe without letting go." -- Winston Churchill

e0y2e3 wrote:This teams needs, regardless of position are aggressive interior defender that can score a little and perimeter defender that can hit his open threes. I don't care if those players at C/PF or SF/SG.

e0y2e3 wrote:I don't think I've seen a single person, nor do I think McLemore has the upside (on D and 3) as Pido and Otto.

Not sure where you are getting that, but it just isn't true.

I am going by Mocks I've looked at. Most have Noel and McLemore 1-2 in the draft, with a couple even having McLemore #1. I know we don't all agree with mocks, but there is pretty decent consensus on the top two spots.

I don't know if his skill set is what you say fits the Cavs needs, I am just saying that according to most mocks, he's rated ahead of everyone but Noel.

I'll be honest, the only guy of the group I've seen a ton of is Pido, since I watched a bunch of Big 10 games this year.

A quick google sampling of the top 3 picks according to some NBA mocks:

Again, as a D and 3 guy is the key point here. That is what the Cavs desperately need. McLemore is a solid starting 2G prospect that will have too much overlap with Waiters. Taking guys that fill needs while not worrying about SF/SG is the key to all of this. Well that and Pido being long enough to actually be a shut down defender on a team's best scorer, not just a SG.

e0y2e3 wrote:Again, as a D and 3 guy is the key point here. That is what the Cavs desperately need. McLemore is a solid starting 2G prospect that will have too much overlap with Waiters. Taking guys that fill needs while not worrying about SF/SG is the key to all of this. Well that and Pido being long enough to actually be a shut down defender on a team's best scorer, not just a SG.

I don't know as much about some of these prospects as some of you guys do. My impression is that Pido's offensive game has too much overlap with Waiters' game. My impression is that both of their games is more bent towards scoring off the bounce. Pido took less that 2 threes per game. He did shoot 44% on those threes, but as a sophomore he shot 21% on threes. His athleticism lends itself to solid perimeter D, but I worry about him as a SF.

I am only stating these stats because I don't see Pido being a sure-thing upgrade as on offensive three-point shooter. McLemore's 3-pt production is clearly better. However, if you are prioritizing defense over three-point shooting (and I don't disagree), then the discussion changes.

What I really like about Pido is that he really seems to be a competitor. The Cavs need that. When you watch the NBA playoffs, teams that do well, have a couple of tough SOBs that know how to compete. McLemore's performance in the NCAA tourney scares me about his competitiveness. I haven't seen enough of Porter to make an evaluation on that. If we take Pido, I agree with you that we bring Waiters off the bench.

I said earlier, that if we were to take a guard, I was pulling for Smart, as he can play both the PG and SG spots and give us depth there, considering the fragility of Kyrie. But shockingly, he's staying in college.

Personally I would still be surprised if the Cavs take a guard with their 1st pick in the draft.

Last edited by OldDawg on Mon May 13, 2013 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

"The nose of the bulldog has been slanted backwards so that he can breathe without letting go." -- Winston Churchill

Pido is nothing like Waiters who plays more like a combo guard/Wade slasher than anything. Pido scores opportunistically.

Also Waiters is the definition of inefficient chucker and won't be anything as a basketball player until he stops.

And again, you only draft a guard if you think he can guard the teams #1 scorer, be it a SF or SG. They need a lock down defender that can shut down the other teams top wing player, I don't give two shits what position said player plays.

A lot is going to come down to Pido's combine measurements.

Unless you guys aren't paying any sort of attention, BTW, the NBA is trending incredibly small. Everyone but Memphis that is. Even the Spurs run small a good bit now.

If Ds & 3s are really your only priorities, then McLemore is a solid option. Probably better than Porter, I guess. And one's preference between him & Oladipo--again, if your only priorities are Ds & 3s--is likely only decided by which of D or 3 you want a little more. (Hopefully, Mike Brown's assumed preference would win out here.)

Again, the problem with McLemore is he can only ever guard SGs. As I've said before, I don't care which position Pido plays, but I really, really care how long is he is that he can guard the teams best player.

And I don't see elite lock-down defender form McLemore and with how incredibly (like worst ever) bad the Cavs D was last year the D matters more than the 3 right now.

It never occurred to me that Oladipo would/could play SF in the NBA, but if the league's going as small as you say, OK, I guess.

I don't think McLemore has the mentality necessary for elite lockdown defender, but he's athletic/solid enough there, and he has a really pretty shot. So if you tip the scales to 3 over D...

I'd say Oladipo is the best defender of the three by a wider margin than McLemore is the best long range shooter, but again, if those are really your only priorities, these are the two you're looking at, I'd guess. Which would be a shame, I think, because there's so much to love about Otto Porter, too.