Yeah they are talking about it hitting land right at Cape Hatteras. That is about 2 hours south of where I am. Lots of people stocking up on
supplies, hell my parents even made hotel reservations a couple hours west of here. Also there have beenr umors that there is gonna be a gasoline
shortage since a tanker couldnt come in due to the storm. When this thing hits, it is gonna leave one helluva mess.

I think their track is WAY off... Category 5 storms aren't influenced by weather patterns around it that much...they ARE the weather. I think it's
going to hit along the North Florida/Georgia area, but of course, Cape Hatteras is toast as always...that place always gets hit... I can't even
imagine what their insurance rates are....

Originally posted by Gazrok
I think their track is WAY off... Category 5 storms aren't influenced by weather patterns around it that much...they ARE the weather. I think it's
going to hit along the North Florida/Georgia area, but of course, Cape Hatteras is toast as always...that place always gets hit... I can't even
imagine what their insurance rates are....

AF would know better than me but I would surmise them to be quite outrageous. Outer Banks gets "trashed" alot by rough surf and they are always
steady hauling in serious amounts of sand. If this thing even hits at Cat 4 level, its going to mess that place up but good.

Well, I guess it's time to start stocking up on the important things for survival(Beer and Ice).

I don't like that last track there, Seekerof. That yellow dot in Connecticut is right on top of me!!
It's been over fifty years since we had a BIG one here and I, of course, now live right ON the damnded shoreline

Have you guys seen the satelitte photos of this monster...its almost as big as two states (Virginia and N. Carolina) Its humongous. Speculation
here has it strengthening when it hits the Gulf Stream....which is about 50-55 miles out from the Outer Banks and regaining what was lost....making it
a Cat4 or back to Cat 5.....the water temp plays a factor....the colder the more it takes saps the "power" from the hurricane. Get this, last
night, the water temp in the waters around Virginia Beach and Nags Head were 72-76 degrees. The Gulf Stream is at about 80-86 degrees....not much
being sapped from it.

I'm not looking forward to this if it decides to not change course and quickly.

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT ISABEL HAS
WEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 120
KT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 110 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUGGEST THE WINDS
MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE BIT LESS. THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF
SHEAR AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN STILL LOOKS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
EYEWALL CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION LOOKS A LITTLE DRY. ALTHOUGH ISABEL HAS BEEN
WEAKENING...AND MAY WEAKEN FURTHER...THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT SUGGESTS THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN...WITH
ENHANCED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...MAY DEVELOP IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN
PREDICTING SUCH PATTERNS...IN PARTICULAR THEY OFTEN OVER-DEVELOP
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OVER TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SIMPLY CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AND
ANTICIPATES A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...AT
LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7...OR NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN MORE SO THAN THIS MORNING AS
THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS EARLIER RUN. THERE HAS BEEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ISABEL TURNS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
BY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W.

According to the charts...still heading our way and not yet hit the Gulf Stream.

Oh boy.....here we go:
"Virginia under state of emergency as Isabel churns up the coast"

Speculated to hit Thursday.

Posted on 09/15/2003 1:35 PM
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -- "Gov. Mark R. Warner declared a state of emergency in Virginia on Monday to brace the state for Hurricane Isabel, which was on
course to smash into the East Coast as early as Thursday.

The declaration places the National Guard, the State Police and the Department of Transportation on full alert for what Warner said could be
significant flooding across an already waterlogged state as well as wind and tornado damage.

Isabel, 350 miles wide and packing winds of about 150 mph, on Monday was churning its way toward the U.S. mainland, where prognosticators predict
landfall would be most likely from the Carolinas northward.

Warner called on Virginians statewide, not just in coastal or tidewater regions, to be prepared to move to higher ground, tie down garbage cans and
lawn furniture that could become missiles in high winds and prepare for three to seven days without electricity. He met privately Monday afternoon
with state law-enforcement, military, emergency preparedness and transportation officials.

The last hurricane to affect Virginia was in 1999, when Hurricane Floyd caused widespread flooding damage, particularly in Franklin and Southampton
County. Franklin's downtown business district was almost completely inundated and is still struggling to rebound."

Not good.....not good....Cat 4 or even a good, strong Cat 3 will be very bad. We have had so much ran prior to this that with any kind of strong
wind, those shallow rooted pine trees are going to make a mess...not even talking flooding.

Latest news is that it is now a Category 3, so it seems to be slowing down, but the predicted path is right through where i live. Looks like I'm
just gonna stay, and wait this thing out. Latest word is that we should start getting the effects Wed at 8pm, and the full force of the storm
thursday night.

I will be doing likewise AF.
School is out till Monday and gov. work has allowed me time off for getting things straight around my house.
Projected path is taking it 25 miles +/- either side of my house/where I live........

Take care yourself seek.
The first part of the storm has just arrived about 3 hours ago, the wind's been picking up all day, and the sky continues to grow darker. There is
absolutely no sign of wildlife anywhere, I guess the animals knew they should get the hell out of here.
The national guard has been activated (one of my buddies is in it) and most military bases are shut down.

From what I've seen so far it looks like the eye is gonna go straight over my house. I think we are gonna be in for a whopper. I'll try to post
with updates as much as possible, but most likely we won't have any power starting tomorow afternoon.

I live in Southern Ontario....right on the coast of Lake Ontario and they're saying we're gunna even be hit pretty hard soon too. Obviously not as
bad as the east coast but still...the weather up here is never severe.
yeah i heard friday we're suppose to get some rough weather...is that too early?

Its getting a bit colder where I am in DC and windy. The skies are definitely steel gray. Yesterday, the skies were crisp blue. All public
transportation ends at 11:00 am. The government is shut down. My law firm is closed. It is now 9:56 am.

Got to hand it to them, they've been pretty dead on with their hurricane forecasts lately... I thought for sure they were going to be off, but then
the storm weakened severely, and was then subject to other weather patterns... It's always a safe bet that Cape Hatteras will get slammed
though....

You've got to be on crack to own a home there.... It gets hit every time....

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