Five things to watch two months before November election

LANSING – The final two months of campaigning in Michigan will determine if Republicans continue their four-year control of state government and who will succeed U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, a retiring Democrat who has held his seat for nearly 36 years.

Five things to watch:

1. Snyder is no shoo-in

No first-term incumbent Michigan governor has lost re-election in a half-century. While the odds are in Republican Gov. Rick Snyder’s favor, he cannot bank on an easy 18-point victory again.

Democratic challenger and Howell native Mark Schauer, a former congressman and state lawmaker, is a seasoned candidate who casts himself as pro-middle class and Snyder as too favorable to business.

Snyder, a former venture capitalist who has raised more campaign funds than Schauer, says Michigan’s economy is bouncing back under his watch.

The GOP is linking Schauer to ex-Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s “lost decade” legacy and says he has no real plan, while Snyder is being attacked on education funding and a tax overhaul.

2. Rare open U.S. Senate seat

Levin’s retirement gives Republicans an opening to capture a Senate seat for the first time in 20 years, when Spencer Abraham won only to lose to Debbie Stabenow six years later.

Despite the GOP’s problems winning federal elections here, voters tend to favor the opposing party in a president’s sixth year. Their choices are Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters and former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

The GOP is criticizing Peters as a “flip-flopper” with bad positions on the federal health-care law and proposed Keystone XL pipeline.

Land’s businesswoman credentials are in question along with her willingness to debate Peters and hold public events.

3. Legislative control

Republicans have 59 seats in the 110-member state House and a 26-12 majority in the Senate. GOP legislators and Snyder have combined to enact business tax cuts, toughen the state’s power to intervene in deficit-ridden cities and school districts, and limit unions’ power.

Angry Democrats hope to win back the House, at the very least frustrating Snyder’s agenda if he wins a second term.

But Republicans enjoy gerrymandered House districts that helped them keep their majority when President Barack Obama easily won the state in 2012. If the House flips and Schauer becomes governor, he would still face a Senate that Republicans have controlled for 30 years.

4. U.S. House shake-up

While faces in the state’s U.S. House delegation will change due to four open seats and an incumbent’s primary loss, the GOP’s 9-5 edge appears likely to stay intact. Democrats’ best chance may be the sprawling 1st District in northern Michigan. Two-term Republican Rep. Dan Benishek faces Jerry Cannon, a retired Army National Guard major general.

The Michigan Supreme Court has been in conservatives’ hands for 15 years other than a short-lived period of liberal control in 2010. That is unlikely to change, given Republicans’ 5-2 edge.

Justice Michael Cavanagh’s retirement is an opportunity for Democrat Richard Bernstein, a blind lawyer who represents disabled clients at the “Call Sam” firm, and Kent County Circuit Judge James Redford, the Republican nominee.

GOP-nominated Justice Brian Zahra is seeking re-election for an eight-year term, while Justice David Viviano is running to finish the term to which Snyder appointed him when Diane Hathaway pleaded guilty to felony bank fraud.