Will the barrage of attack ads be Donald Trump's undoing?

More than half of the record spending on negative advertising during the 2016 presidential primary has been directed at TrumpMaggie Haberman&Nick Corasaniti | New York Times | April 12, 2016, 15:35 IST

Donald Trump. Image credit: GettyMore than half of the record spending on negative advertising during the 2016 presidential primary has been directed at a single candidate, Donald Trump, a barrage that threatens to undermine his candidacy even as he continues to march toward the Republican nomination.

Of the more than $132 million spent on negative ads by candidates and the groups supporting them, nearly $70 million has gone to commercials assailing Trump, according to a New York Times analysis of data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. The sharp focus on a single candidate is especially surprising given the race's exceptionally large number of primary contenders.

In addition to Trump's opponents, three Republican super PACs have made it their main focus to take him down. The Club for Growth, Our Principles PAC and the American Future Fund, all unaligned with any particular candidate, have spent more than $23.5 million on negative ads against him.

On Monday, Hillary Clinton crossed primary lines to add to the onslaught, releasing a commercial that highlights comments Trump has made about immigration and abortion and argues that he is trying to get Americans to turn against one another.

"What is unusual and unprecedented is the array of advertisers who are out there flogging Trump on the air," said Elizabeth Wilner, a senior vice president at Kantar Media/CMAG. "You have general election foes attacking him, you have his primary foes attacking him, and you have specific groups whose whole focus in life is just to make sure that he's not the nominee."

The amount of spending on negative and contrast ads, which are partly critical, against Trump is yet another example of the unique way in which he has dominated the Republican primary campaign. Largely because of his high name recognition and established brand, he has mostly withstood the attacks, building on his delegate lead and polling well in states that vote soon. In New York, which holds its primary next week, he has the support of more than 50 percent of likely Republican voters.

But despite claims that campaign advertising has lost its potency, there is growing evidence that negative ads still work — and that they are beginning to take their toll on Trump.

It started in earnest in December, when Right to Rise, a group supporting Jeb Bush, spent $2.1 million on an ad portraying Trump as a "bully." At the time, Trump had relatively high unfavorable ratings compared with the other candidates: 57 percent among all Americans, according to a CNN/ORC poll from that month.

But as the ads began to increase in frequency and the tone turned more negative, his national unfavorable rating began to climb unabated. A CNN/ORC poll last month found that it was up 10 points from December, to 67 percent: 11 points higher than any other candidate still in the race, Republican or Democrat.

Mike Murphy, who was the chief strategist for Right to Rise, said the effect of the ads had been to keep Trump from consolidating more support in the Republican primary.

"I think the negative ads are having a chilling effect on his ability to grow his natural share with converts," Murphy said. However, he added, Trump's own mouth plays a role.

"He creates an environment where negative ads are a little more fertile," Murphy said, adding that the ads were having more impact now that fewer candidates are in the primary.

Larry McCarthy, a Republican strategist who worked with Murphy and now produces ads for Our Principles PAC, said his group had found, through polling and focus groups, that the best way to go after Trump was to use the bombastic billionaire's own words against him.

"Campaigns use negative ads because they work," said Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist and vocal critic of Trump. "And Donald Trump has provided his opponents with a bonanza of negative information to use in ads targeting his candidacy."

Compounding the risks for Trump is that he has done little to counteract the effort with his own spending. He has spent just over $16 million on television ads, and in later contests, he went on the air late or not at all. A spokeswoman for Trump, Hope Hicks, did not respond to an email requesting comment.

Steve Murphy, a veteran Democratic ad-maker, said Trump should view the primaries as a mere taste of what is to come.

"Ask Donald Trump if he thinks negative ads hurt him in Wisconsin," Murphy said. "Then tell him the Democrats have another half a billion dollars worth ready to go in the general."