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Game Preview: 5 keys for the Miami Dolphins vs. the New England Patriots

The numbers don’t lie: The Dolphins are 1-6 this season when they lose or tie the turnover battle, and 4-0 when they win it. The Patriots (8-3 overall) have won the turnover battle in 10 of their 11 games and are an absurd +24 this season, tops in the NFL. Not only does the Patriots’ defense force an uncanny number of turnovers – 14 in their last four games – but their offense has just one turnover in that span.

2. Run the ball a lot – and then run some more.

It was no coincidence that the Dolphins scored 24 points Sunday against Seattle while finally finding a running game again. The Dolphins rushed for 189 yards on over 6 yards per carry – the first time in eight games that they cracked the 100-yard barrier – and it helped create big plays in the passing game, as well. The Patriots’ run defense is fairly stout, allowing 3.9 yards per carry (eighth-best in NFL), but the Dolphins’ best chance to win is to grind out the clock and keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

3. Keep using fullback/tight end Charles Clay.

The offense got too predictable for a while, as it went two games with no plays over 20 yards and just one touchdown. Defenses were able to focus on Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano and Reggie Bush. Getting Clay involved last Sunday brought some pop. He had six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and consistently beat 1-on-1 coverage from the linebackers.

4. Pressure Tom Brady to try to break his rhythm.

If Brady gets time to throw and gets in a rhythm in the Patriots’ no-huddle, up-tempo offense, watch out. He is as efficient as ever with 24 touchdown passes and just three interceptions this season. But, as the New York Giants have proven in their two Super Bowl matchups over the past five years, Brady can make mistakes if he is pressured and hit a lot. Dolphins defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle needs to use every exotic blitz he can find.

5. Take away the middle of the field.

The Patriots’ biggest receiving threats patrol the middle of the field: slot receiver Wes Welker and tight end Aaron Hernandez, who is finally healthy after missing a month with a sprained ankle. Welker is once again torching nickel defenders with 80 catches for 961 yards this season. Hernandez assumes the role of Rob Gronkowski, who had 748 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns before breaking a forearm. Wideout Brandon Lloyd is dangerous, with 551 yards and three TD catches, but the Dolphins will gamble on him beating them.

Quick slants

• The Dolphins are healthy — only FB Jorvorskie Lane (knee) is questionable — while the Patriots will be without TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm), G Logan Mankins (ankle) and DE Chandler Jones (ankle).

• The Patriots have won four in a row against the Dolphins (average margin of victory: 18.75 points) and six of seven since the “Wildcat” game in 2008. But Tom Brady is 0-3 at Sun Life Stadium in December, with losses in 2004, ’06 and ’09.

• The Patriots are No. 1 in the NFL in total offense (435.8 yards per game), points per game (37), plays per game (73.5) and turnover differential (+24).

• The Dolphins’ Ryan Tannehill is 31st in the NFL with a 72.9 passer rating, but his fourth-quarter rating jumped to a respectable 81.4 after throwing for 156 yards and a touchdown in the final period last Sunday against Seattle.

• Dolphins WRs Brian Hartline (55 catches for 807 yards) and Davone Bess (55 catches for 715 yards) are on pace for their first 1,000-yard seasons.

• After compiling 8.5 sacks over a five-game stretch, Dolphins DE Cameron Wake has just one sack in his last three games.