Natural Order - Threat

You may or may not be concerned about the end of the
solar system as
the sun expands into a red giant in 5.5 billion years. You may only be
amused by the search for asteroids and comets that may intersect the
orbit of earth, and the effort to deflect them. You may not be aware
that due to changes in the heliosphere and the
geomagnetic field, the solar wind and cosmic particles are
becoming a serious threat to
communications, navigation, electrical utilities, integrated circuits
and the archives they protect. In the near-term, this combined threat
will start in 2011
and peak in 2012. There will be a reprieve during solar cycle 25 and a
bigger threat during solar cycle 26. It's only going to get worse as
the Earth's magnetic field weakens. Even during low solar activity,
solar storms like the Clarrington Event can still wreak
havoc.

The movement of the largely liquid metal outer
core of Earth around its largely iron solid metal inner core generates
a magnetic field that has been simulated in experiments
with liquid sodium. It normally results
in a dipole magnetic field for the planet.

As the planet cools by convection, the outer core accretes
on
the inner core, expanding it while thinning the outer core, and
reducing the net magnetic field strength. The geomagnetic field
strength decrease began about 2000 years ago, but the rate of decrease
increased 500 years ago. An analysis of pottery fired over the last 400
years has revealed a geomagnetic field strength decline rate
ten times faster than expected. In 1,500 years it is estimated there
will be no geomagnetic field.

During the last 20 years, the geomagnetic field has become
erratic. Aeronautical maps used to allow aircraft to land using
automatic pilot systems have accordingly been revised.

The Southern Atlantic Anomaly has
forced satellite operators to change the orientation or configuration
of satellites before they pass over the region during a solar flare.
Commercial aircraft must divert or risk a loss of communication. The
anomaly has led many scientists to believe a field reversal is imminent.

According to ancient lava flows, field reversals occur about
every 200,000 years. The last reversal was 780,000 years
ago. No mass extinctions have been correlated with
magnetic field reversals, but they likely disrupt migratory
animals that store electromagnetic field maps for
navigation. How long a reversal takes is unknown.

The geomagnetic field normally
deflects the solar wind around the planet such
that it only interacts with the ionosphere,
where the charged particles (electrons and protons) from the solar wind
are trapped and flow to the poles as evidenced by auroras (auroras
from space).

The radiation from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are often
associated with solar flares. CMEs are strong enough to deform the
existing geomagnetic field.

NASA's five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in
Earth's magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously
thought to exist. When this happens, solar wind can flow through the
opening to charge the magnetosphere, which can result in communication
and electrical power disruptions like that which disabled the Canadian
grid. Exploring the mystery is a key goal of the THEMIS mission,
launched in February 2007.

On June 3, 2007, when the five probes serendipitously flew
through the breach just as it was opening. On board sensors recorded a
torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere,
signaling an event of unexpected size -- 1027
particles per second flowed into the magnetosphere -- an order of
magnitude greater than what was thought possible. It's long
been believed that holes in Earth's magnetosphere open only in response
to solar magnetic fields that point south, and those that point north
reinforce the geomagnetic field. This breach opened in response to a
solar magnetic field that pointed north.

Since 1901 the overall magnetic field of the Sun
has increased by 230 percent. Some of the sunspot activity in
this last cycle was greater than anything ever recorded.

For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles
tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such
CMEs may now open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just
before the storm gets underway -- a perfect storm.

Every 10–11 years, the number
of sunspots increase from 0 (solar cycle 23 in 2008) to over 400. The
solar flares and other
disturbances emanating from the sun during increased sunspot activity
result in an increased solar wind and
harmful radiation (ultraviolet and x-rays).

Sunspot Cycle 24 will peak around 2012. This
sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as
much as a year late, according to a computer model of solar dynamics
developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR). In a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated
the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy.

On August 28, 1859, auroras glowed and shimmered all over
the
American continent as darkness fell. Many people thought their city was
aflame. The instruments used to record this magnetic fluctuation
exceeded their limit. Hit by a massive voltage surge, telegraph systems
malfunctioned. A study by the MetaTech Corporation revealed that an
impact similar to that of 1859 would incapacitate the entire
electricity grid in North America. Even the relatively weak magnetic
storm of 1989, disabled a Canadian hydroelectric power plant that left
6 million people in the U.S. and Canada without electric power for nine
hours.

According to the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space
Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder, related consequences
of a major undeflected solar event include potable water distribution
affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in
12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning,
sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so
on. Outages could take months to fix. Banks might close, and trade with
other countries might halt. Emergency services would be
strained, and command and control might be lost.

The heliosphere is the furthest extent of the solar wind. It
extends more than a million miles an hour from the sun. It has shrunk
by 20 per cent over the past decade, allowing 20% more high energy
electrons
to strike Earth. The heliosphere is at its
lowest level since the space race began 50 years ago. The IBEX probe is intended to
determine why.

About 90 per cent of the cosmic particles striking the
solar system are deflected by the heliosphere. Much of the rest is
deflected by the Earth's magnetic field. The Earth's
atmosphere absorbs
much of the remainder. Cosmic particles have detrimental effects on
DNA, increasing the risk of cancer, cataracts, neurological disorders,
and non-cancer mortality risks.

If the heliosphere continues to weaken, scientists fear that
the amount of cosmic radiation reaching the inner parts of our solar
system, including Earth, will increase to disruptive levels. The
reversing and
declining geomagnetic field compounds the concern.

Though smaller, Mars likely had a magnetic field similar to
that of Earth. When it lost its magnetic field, its atmosphere was
stripped away by the solar wind, and its oceans evaporated. If further
research indicates that Earth will follow Mars into inhospitality, the
deadline for mass migrations of life from Earth to another solar system
is near the year 3500. That leaves precious little time to master
interstellar travel, find suitable planets, and master terraforming.

On 2010 September 16
a History Channel episode on the magnetosphere entitled "Magnetic
Storm" revealed that the power grid is humanity's Achille's Heel,
because other infrastructure like water and fuel pumps need electricity
to work. It takes six months to build a replacement
transformer in a major city. It will take ten years to repair
the electrical grid. In that time, one-third to one-half of
the population of the developed world will die.