Indeed we are to be thankful to God for any difficulties, trials, or burdens that arise in our life. Because by overcoming them through the power of Christ, this strengthens our relationship and confidence in Him, and serves as a testimony to others. For this same reason, people sometimes say that cancer or some other illness has been a blessing to them, after having overcome a battle with such, and realizing the power of God. This doesn't mean that we are to use these gifts from God as an excuse to justify or to defend a particular lifestyle aside from that in Christ, or to use them as means to our own ends.

As a result of a thousand million years of evolution, the universe is becoming conscious of itself, able to understand something of its past history and its possible future.-- Sir Julian Sorell Huxley FRS

I am aware, though, that Lutheran theologian Robert W. Jenson (who is very friendly to Orthodoxy in many areas of his theology) said something like it in this interview:

"Q:What do you make of the recent conversions to the Roman Catholic Church of some prominent Protestant theologians, such as Reinhard Hütter, Bruce Marshall, Rusty Reno and Gerald Schlabach -- theologians you yourself have been in conversation with?

A: One could add to the list. Those of them I know well describe their reasons differently. But I think one thing is common to all or most of them: they intend to inhabit the one, historically real church confessed by the creeds, and could no longer recognize this in their Protestant denominations. And indeed, if the church of the creeds does not, as the Second Vatican Council put it, "subsist in" the Roman Catholic Church, it is hard to think where it could.

Blanche Jenson long ago convinced me that the Western church could be renewed in faithfulness only by a fruit-basket upset of alignments, and that God must surely have something like that in mind. Perhaps this movement of theologians is part of such an upset. I lament the loss to the Protestant denominations, but I rejoice in the access of talent and energy to the church which will in future bear most of Christianity’s burden. For if present trends continue, the ecumene of the century now beginning will comprise Orthodoxy, Pentecostalist groups and predominantly the Roman Catholic Church; the Protestant denominations and territorial churches will have sunk into insignificance -- but again, present trends of course do not always continue."

Why are so many people opposed to Rowan Williams? From everything I've heard/seen/read of him he seems like a brilliant intellectual theologian with a progressive mindset, which is great.

I think the thing is that, when he became Archbishop, people almost thought he would perform miracles - he was such a deeply learned, intelligent man. The previous Archbishop wasn't really known for his intellectualism, you see. It's a case of the grass always being greener. But I do think Williams has made some serious mistakes. He doesn't translate well from academic theologian to speaker for the Church - as, for example, in the episode where he suggested Sharia law could be brought into the British system. He was trying to discuss things like an intellectual with other intellectuals, but lots of people just heard the soundbite and misunderstood.

I think he also gets blamed for being in the wrong place at the wrong time, though.

I stopped posting here in August 2011 because of stark disagreement with the policies of the administration and moderating team of the forums. If you desire, feel free to PM me, message me on Facebook (link in profile), or email me: cddombrowski@gmail.com

Why are so many people opposed to Rowan Williams? From everything I've heard/seen/read of him he seems like a brilliant intellectual theologian with a progressive mindset, which is great.

Most people don't like him because he's not partisan enough.

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I stopped posting here in August 2011 because of stark disagreement with the policies of the administration and moderating team of the forums. If you desire, feel free to PM me, message me on Facebook (link in profile), or email me: cddombrowski@gmail.com

I stopped posting here in August 2011 because of stark disagreement with the policies of the administration and moderating team of the forums. If you desire, feel free to PM me, message me on Facebook (link in profile), or email me: cddombrowski@gmail.com

I heard a quote some where from Rowan Williams saying that he thought that in a thousand years, the only Christian confessions remaining would be Eastern Orthodoxy, Roman Catholicism, and Charismatic Christianity.

This is definitely the wildcard here. Does anyone else think Charismaticism will stick around, and if so, why?

Ortho_cat,

There will always be quirky "charismatic" movements, it's a part of how human societies function. Tertullian and his apostasy in joining the Montantist is an excellent example. His statement, "There are too many bishops," sums up the basic mentality. These groups attract sincere "outsiders" (whether real or imagined) who wish to subvert the existing paradigms. And this phenomena exists across the religious spectrum and throughout history.

I don't know were some would get the idea that evangelical Protestantism is dying by any means? It seems to be the fasting growing religion in places like Latin America. It is possible that the vast majority of the Spanish speaking world will one day be almost completely Protestant (with the exception of Spain herself). The RCC seems to have done very little to halt the tide of Latinos who are embracing various Evangelical/Pentecostal sects.

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Men may dislike truth, men may find truth offensive and inconvenient, men may persecute the truth, subvert it, try by law to suppress it. But to maintain that men have the final power over truth is blasphemy, and the last delusion. Truth lives forever, men do not.-- Gustave Flaubert

I don't know were some would get the idea that evangelical Protestantism is dying by any means? It seems to be the fasting growing religion in places like Latin America. It is possible that the vast majority of the Spanish speaking world will one day be almost completely Protestant (with the exception of Spain herself). The RCC seems to have done very little to halt the tide of Latinos who are embracing various Evangelical/Pentecostal sects.

Thats because the RC is full of ecumaniacal maniacs who care more about letting protestant heretics feel good about themselves then promoting their own faith. Also when I was RC there was a strong trend among RC's to think that all religions are basicly equal.

He had this incredible talk at the Vatican where he said there really weren't that many differences with the Catholic church, and then wondered why they were being so stubborn about women priests and bishops, suggesting that the Catholic church thinks there's something defective in the baptism of females that precludes them from Holy Orders. I'm sure that made a few waves at the Vatican. Interestingly enough the Moscow Patriarchy has recently cut its ties with the German Lutherans over the same issue (their head is a divorced lady). The Anglicans have shoved opponents of female bishops to the curb (Anglo-Catholic and otherwise). Looks like there's a bit of a re-alignment, with the Anglicans firmly in the camp of liberal Reform and if you don't like it, you can go to Rome or OCA or ACNA or GAFCON or whatever.

I don't know were some would get the idea that evangelical Protestantism is dying by any means? It seems to be the fasting growing religion in places like Latin America. It is possible that the vast majority of the Spanish speaking world will one day be almost completely Protestant (with the exception of Spain herself).

Mainly because Spain is becoming to secular to be evangelical.

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The RCC seems to have done very little to halt the tide of Latinos who are embracing various Evangelical/Pentecostal sects.

I don't know were some would get the idea that evangelical Protestantism is dying by any means? It seems to be the fasting growing religion in places like Latin America. It is possible that the vast majority of the Spanish speaking world will one day be almost completely Protestant (with the exception of Spain herself). The RCC seems to have done very little to halt the tide of Latinos who are embracing various Evangelical/Pentecostal sects.

Most Protestant groups that are showing such growth haven't really been around long enough to show staying power.

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"Christianity is not a philosophy, not a doctrine, but life." - Elder Sophrony (Sakharov)

Most Protestant groups that are showing such growth haven't really been around long enough to show staying power.

Yes, but they are slippery fish. Whenever one form of Christianity stops working, they simply adapt with the times a repackage it so that it is relevant. So to say that groups "die off" is in some sense true, but in other ways false. I think it's more accurate to say that they morph.

The RCC may very well face extinction unless she gives up her stubborn celibacy demands and lets married men be ordained priest. The RCC is, despite a worldwide numbers increase due to Latin Americans and Africans procreating like rabbits, suffering a severe priest shortage which is seriously effecting their ability to minister effectively to their flocks. This has already played serious havoc amongst RC parishes in America (church closings and parish mergers galore, the average age for RC priest being around 68). This, combined with the horrible cathecises the average Catholic receives in their schools, has caused most of those under 40 in that faith to be spiritually braindead.

Will the RCC herself be able to overcome these problems and be with this weary world for many more centuries or will they simply fade away into the great dust heap of world religions that have come and gone? Will Rome one day be the new Mecca of the Muslims who will treat the great church of St Peter the same way they have the Hagia Sophia of Constantinople? Will the Pope one day be thought of as we today do the Caesars of ancient Rome?

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Men may dislike truth, men may find truth offensive and inconvenient, men may persecute the truth, subvert it, try by law to suppress it. But to maintain that men have the final power over truth is blasphemy, and the last delusion. Truth lives forever, men do not.-- Gustave Flaubert

Will the RCC herself be able to overcome these problems and be with this weary world for many more centuries or will they simply fade away into the great dust heap of world religions that have come and gone? Will Rome one day be the new Mecca of the Muslims who will treat the great church of St Peter the same way they have the Hagia Sophia of Constantinople? Will the Pope one day be thought of as we today do the Caesars of ancient Rome?

It may work on cable news that one can prevent making assertions by simply asking questions, but around here these are definitely assertions. Please provide evidence for them.

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"It is remarkable that what we call the world...in what professes to be true...will allow in one man no blemishes, and in another no virtue."--Charles Dickens

a worldwide numbers increase due to Latin Americans and Africans procreating like rabbits

Please provide evidence for this assertion.

I'm confused. I was assuming that any humans living in Africa or South & Central America would procreate like humans. Unless, of course, there is some benefit to procreating like another species.

« Last Edit: November 22, 2009, 04:31:22 PM by Fr. George »

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"O Cross of Christ, all-holy, thrice-blessed, and life-giving, instrument of the mystical rites of Zion, the holy Altar for the service of our Great Archpriest, the blessing - the weapon - the strength of priests, our pride, our consolation, the light in our hearts, our mind, and our steps"Met. Meletios of Nikopolis & Preveza, from his ordination.

Everyone knows that the RCC has experienced an unprecedented decline in the past 50 years. How do I know that these things I have written of about the forementioned Church are true? I, and millions like me, lived through it all. I suggest that those wishing to see proof of a dramatic decline in the RCC, at least as far as the USA is concerned, read a book entitled :Leading index of Catholic Indicators" by Kenneth C. Jones. It was published in 2002 and list the striking decline in almost all aspects of American Catholic life, except population growth.

Also, statistics on the birth rates in Third World Countries clearly show that they have a higher fertility rate then do First world nations.

« Last Edit: November 22, 2009, 04:49:02 PM by Robb »

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Men may dislike truth, men may find truth offensive and inconvenient, men may persecute the truth, subvert it, try by law to suppress it. But to maintain that men have the final power over truth is blasphemy, and the last delusion. Truth lives forever, men do not.-- Gustave Flaubert

As soon as I heard of Ken Jones' Index of Leading Catholic Indicators,1 I had an intense desire to purchase a copy. The 113-page paperback book contains statistics relating to all aspects of Catholic life: Catholic education, religious orders, Catholic practice and belief, seminarians, nuns, and diocesan priests. Having read the Index, my compliments go out to Mr. Jones. Like myself, Mr. Jones is the father of seven young children, so I understand the sacrifice it was for him to take the time to bring this important information together. He has done an excellent job of presenting clear, irrefutable, unbiased, and undeniable raw data pertaining to the crisis in the Church, and he also provides some important analysis of that data. It is important work, and it is solid evidence supporting what many of us have known for a long time.

Poring over page after page of bar charts, graphs, and tables in the Index, one cannot help but be overwhelmed by the sense of loss. In every category — religious orders, diocesan priests, religious priests, teaching orders, you name it — the decline is sharp, obvious and undeniable.

Being a mathematician, however, I was not content to just read his book cover to cover. Mr. Jones' analysis was good, but he did not view his data the same way a mathematician does. Instantly I saw linear functions, exponential functions, and patterns that we can use to model and make predictions. The numbers, bar charts, figures and statistics gave me a level of excitement and an adrenalin rush that most would have to turn to bungee jumping to achieve.

At the sight of the tables of data, I reached for my computational tools: Maple 8.0, Sigma Plot, SPSS for Windows, and my trusty old Texas Instruments TI-85. Initially I was not sure where to begin, but after careful consideration, I concluded that the most important statistics are those having to do with seminarians. Seminarians are the future of the Church; without priests we will become a different Church. Godfried Cardinal Danneels of Belgium stated in an interview with the Catholic Times in May 2000 that "Without priests the sacramental life of the Church will disappear. We will become a Protestant Church without sacraments. We will be another type of Church, not Catholic." Already we can see this bleak prediction coming to pass as one parish after another is turned over to "Lay Administrators." So the chart having to do with the total number of seminarians2 throughout the better part of the last century is the most significant to us as Catholics.

Now, an initial glance at the bar chart titled "Total Seminarians" seems to indicate that there are essentially two functions: one linear and one exponential. The period prior to 1965 shows a linear increase and the period from 1965 to the present shows an exponential decrease.

Linear Growth Function

We begin our analysis by plotting the graph for the period prior to 1965. This period was one of steady growth, so I found that we could roughly match it with a line of slope 829.331. This means that each year that passed there were approximately 829.3 seminarians more than there had been the previous year. So every ten years there were approximately 8,293 seminarians more than there had been the previous decade.

The growth rate over this period can be expressed as P (for "Preconciliar Growth Rate") as a function of time t, where t is in years and t = 0 in 1920:

Or, expressed as a function of the year:

Where the value of year can range from 1920 to the year 1965.

The growth was actually not perfectly linear, as we can see; in fact it was beginning to accelerate into what appears an exponential growth in the final years from 1940 to 1965. However, let's assume the worst — that the growth had just continued at the linear rate described by P(year). Then the number of seminarians we could have had in the year 2003 would have been approximately:

So, had this growth rate continued, by the year 2003 we would have a total of approximately 73,927 seminarians instead of the current figure of less than 5,000. Below you will see the actual data, and superimposed on it is a projection of P(year), the Preconciliar Growth Function, extending through the year 2002.

Exponential Decay Function

It is clear that the period from 1965 onward is nonlinear, so a different technique is required for modeling this period. The exponential decrease from 1965 onward appears similar to a graph of radioactive decay; as it turns out, this period can be modeled by what is commonly called an exponential decay function. Since this period of the Church is commonly called the "Springtime," we shall refer to this function as the Springtime Decay Function S(t), where S, the Springtime Decay, is a function of time t. We begin by taking the log of each of the data points. This gives us an essentially linear data set, to which we can match a line as we did previously for the Preconciliar Growth Function. Now we exponentiate both sides of our equation obtaining the following function:

Or, expressed as a function of the year:

Applying this model we can see that by the year 2065, 100 years from the beginning of the Springtime Decay process, there will be a total of 10 seminarians in the United States. The half-life of this process is 8.19 years, the approximate period of time it takes for the number of seminarians to diminish by ½.

There are some who will argue that this model does not apply. The last two actual data points are higher than the exponential decay function; certainly, according to some, this means that the decline is over, and that all will be back to normal soon. This is wishful thinking, but to accommodate them we turn to the modified exponential decay model. The Modified Springtime Decay Function is not as simple, but it is more accurate:

Or, expressed as a function of the year:

According to this modified decay function there will be 779 seminarians in the year 2065 instead of the 10 predicted using the previous model.

Lost Vocations

We can obtain a rough estimate of the number of lost vocations by taking the sum from 1965 to the present, in five year increments, of the difference between P(year) and S(actual), where the values for S come from the actual data in Mr. Jones' Total Seminarians table.

This estimate makes two assumptions:

* For each of the five year increments the "number of seminarians" represents a distinct set of individuals. For example, the 28,819 seminarians in 1970 are not the same individuals as the 17,802 seminarians in 1975. * P represents the number of seminarians that would have existed had the Preconciliar Growth Rate still been in effect.

According to this rough estimate, approximately 17,741 vocations were lost over the first five-year period, 32,904 were lost over the second five-year period, etc., for a total of 327,746 since 1965.

There is no formula available for the calculation of the number of souls lost as a result of this loss of vocations.A More Optimistic Data Set

There is one additional set of data that was not included in the Index, and that is data relating to the increasing number of vocations found through the "Traditional" Catholic seminaries, or those seminaries in which the 1962 rite is followed and priests are formed according to preconciliar standards. At the moment these seminaries are relatively new, but the growth is impressive. I was unable to obtain any statistics on the Institute of Christ the King, Sovereign Priest, which has a small presence in our country, but the figures for the graph below were provided courtesy of Fr. James Jackson, rector of Our Lady of Guadalupe Seminary in Denton, Nebraska. Our Lady of Guadalupe, where priests of the FSSP (Fraternitas Sacerdotalis Sancti Petri, or Priestly Fraternity of Saint Peter) receive their formation, is now in its twelfth year. Since their move from Pennsylvania to Nebraska four years ago they have been operating at maximum capacity. This fall, Academic Year 2003-2004, as in previous years, they had to turn away a large number of candidates due to lack of room in the partially completed seminary.

The noticeable gap at year eight was during their move from Pennsylvania to Nebraska.

Conclusion

Many have asserted that the sudden decline in all aspects of Catholic life that began in 1965 was due to "other factors," such as the influence of "the sixties." But Mr. Jones soundly refutes that argument by including a simple chart3 which shows a marked decline in Church attendance among Catholics from the 1960s to the present while it remained virtually level, with a slight increase, for Protestants. To more fully understand the nature of the crisis we find ourselves in, I highly recommend that every Catholic capable of reading beyond an eighth grade level purchase a copy of the Index and study it.

It is clear from this brief analysis of the data relating to the number of seminarians over the past eighty years that several things are true:

* That the decline in priestly vocations did, in fact, begin with Vatican II and the introduction of the Novus Ordo. * That the loss is beyond our human ability to comprehend, since it involves souls, but that we should at least be honest about the situation and attempt to comprehend it. We should quit denying that there is a crisis in the Church, and we should quit denying that it is related to the Second Vatican Council. * That the decline is not showing any signs of reversal, despite the assertions of many bishops and priests to the contrary.

Although we cannot know the will of God, we can ponder the significance of the following:

* God calls men to the priesthood. His doing so within the traditional(ist) religious communities seems to be a good indication that He looks favorably upon them and the work they are doing. * God has left his Holy fingerprint on the decline by relating the decline to the natural number, e. Whenever we find an exponential decay function Ce-xt in nature, where C and x are constants, and t is time, it is in conjunction with the death or decay of some entity within His creation. Now we find an exponential decay function describing the number of seminarians from the Novus Ordo wing of the Church in the United States. We should reflect on whether He is trying to tell us something.

***

The author, a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the United States Army, teaches Computer Science and Mathematics at Lyon College in Batesville, Arkansas where he resides with his wife and seven children.

Men may dislike truth, men may find truth offensive and inconvenient, men may persecute the truth, subvert it, try by law to suppress it. But to maintain that men have the final power over truth is blasphemy, and the last delusion. Truth lives forever, men do not.-- Gustave Flaubert

I suggest that those wishing to see proof of a dramatic decline in the RCC, at least as far as the USA is concerned, read a book entitled :Leading index of Catholic Indicators" by Kenneth C. Jones. It was published in 2002 and list the striking decline in almost all aspects of American Catholic life, except population growth.

So according to him, the numbers of Catholics are not declining. Well, that would certainly seem to support your assertion that the numbers of Catholics are declining.

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Also, statistics on the birth rates in Third World Countries clearly show that they have a higher fertility rate then do First world nations.

Which statistics show this? I'm curious to know which humans you feel are nothing more than lagomorphic anthropoids.

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"It is remarkable that what we call the world...in what professes to be true...will allow in one man no blemishes, and in another no virtue."--Charles Dickens

I heard a quote some where from Rowan Williams saying that he thought that in a thousand years, the only Christian confessions remaining would be Eastern Orthodoxy, Roman Catholicism, and Charismatic Christianity.

This is definitely the wildcard here. Does anyone else think Charismaticism will stick around, and if so, why?

In the southern hemisphere, charasmatic/pentecostal Christianity is fueling world-wide Christian growth/expansion. Because of this phenomenon, IF Rown William is the source of the quote in the OP, then charasmatic Christianity, Orthodoxy and Catholicism are seen by the quote's source as the major players in global Christianity and likely to have the staying power to still be around in 1K years.

I heard a quote some where from Rowan Williams saying that he thought that in a thousand years, the only Christian confessions remaining would be Eastern Orthodoxy, Roman Catholicism, and Charismatic Christianity.

This is definitely the wildcard here. Does anyone else think Charismaticism will stick around, and if so, why?

In the southern hemisphere, charasmatic/pentecostal Christianity is fueling world-wide Christian growth/expansion. Because of this phenomenon, IF Rown William is the source of the quote in the OP, then charasmatic Christianity, Orthodoxy and Catholicism are seen by the quote's source as the major players in global Christianity and likely to have the staying power to still be around in 1K years.

If you don't know why Charismatic Christianity will last, you have never experienced Charismatic Christianity.

I heard a quote some where from Rowan Williams saying that he thought that in a thousand years, the only Christian confessions remaining would be Eastern Orthodoxy, Roman Catholicism, and Charismatic Christianity.

This is definitely the wildcard here. Does anyone else think Charismaticism will stick around, and if so, why?

In the southern hemisphere, charasmatic/pentecostal Christianity is fueling world-wide Christian growth/expansion. Because of this phenomenon, IF Rown William is the source of the quote in the OP, then charasmatic Christianity, Orthodoxy and Catholicism are seen by the quote's source as the major players in global Christianity and likely to have the staying power to still be around in 1K years.

If you don't know why Charismatic Christianity will last, you have never experienced Charismatic Christianity.

Ive seen it watching Borat. Interesting to say the least.

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Excellence of character, then, is a state concerned with choice, lying in a mean relative to us, this being determined by reason and in the way in which the man of practical wisdom would determine it. Now it is a mean between two vices, that which depends on excess and that which depends on defect.

It is one thing to take what we know of other Christians that we disagree with and/or know little about from the media - which is often a caricature and presented in such a way as to make all relgious people (ourselves included) look foolish. That is one thing and it is bad enough.

It is quite another to get one's information from someone who is only going to show the most egregious, outrageous stuff in a religion to get a laugh. Not that there might not be some real fodder for incredulity in some of the more left-field charasmatics. But it doesn't have to necessarily be outrageous if presented to non-religious people who think we're all whacked anyway. Just the presentation with his feigned stupidity in understanding something could make even a legitimate practice look foolish.

So. I really do hope you are kidding.

Imagine for a moment, the profane mockery Borat could make of Orthodox monastic practice if he visited an Orthodox monastery, creating cheap laughs for all the over-sexed, over-drugged, over-boozed, over-materialistic/consumerist masses he appeals to.

I suggest that those wishing to see proof of a dramatic decline in the RCC, at least as far as the USA is concerned, read a book entitled :Leading index of Catholic Indicators" by Kenneth C. Jones. It was published in 2002 and list the striking decline in almost all aspects of American Catholic life, except population growth.

So according to him, the numbers of Catholics are not declining. Well, that would certainly seem to support your assertion that the numbers of Catholics are declining.

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Also, statistics on the birth rates in Third World Countries clearly show that they have a higher fertility rate then do First world nations.

Which statistics show this? I'm curious to know which humans you feel are nothing more than lagomorphic anthropoids.

I wasn't "referncing myself". The statistical facts speak for themselves. While the number of RCC people have increased, the overall number of priest has not. The decline in the USA is greater and extends to churches and schools as well.

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Men may dislike truth, men may find truth offensive and inconvenient, men may persecute the truth, subvert it, try by law to suppress it. But to maintain that men have the final power over truth is blasphemy, and the last delusion. Truth lives forever, men do not.-- Gustave Flaubert