I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG.
Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching?
Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years.
Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.OldYanksFan

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

All Darvish, All the Time

Upon further reflection, I’ve decided to delve a bit deeper into the Yu Darvish situation. In my first post about him, I used a matched set of innings for all pitchers that came to MLB from Japan as a way to try and estimate how Darvish’s performance may translate. The problem is that when I looked a bit deeper into it, I found that most of the pitchers who came over were relievers and they generally had better success. Since we know that relieving tends to be easier than starting, using those pitchers in the sample may not be all that telling. I also wondered if using career statistics was of much use since player talent is not static.

So I decided to do the same basic idea from that same post, but restricted to the pitchers who were mainly starters in both Japan and MLB. I’m also restricting the Japanese stats to the 3 years prior to coming to MLB, using a basic 3-2-1 weighing (most recent year weighted at 3).

Because it’s a much shorter list, we of course have to be concerned about the dreaded small sample size thing. But I think the readers here generally understand that, so we’ll press on.

Here are the stats of those pitchers over the three years prior to entering MLB plus their entire MLB record.

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Age

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

RA

ERA

FIP

Igawa, Kei

2004

Hanshin

Jap Cen

Intl

24

200

190

95

83

29

54

228

4.27

3.73

3.61

Igawa, Kei

2005

Hanshin

Jap Cen

Intl

25

172

199

91

74

23

60

145

4.75

3.86

4.30

Igawa, Kei

2006

Hanshin

Jap Cen

Intl

26

209

180

77

69

17

49

194

3.32

2.97

3.10

Igawa, Kei

2004-2006

Hanshin

Jap Cen

Intl

24-26

195

188

85

73

21

54

183

3.90

3.36

3.54

MLB

72

89

54

53

15

37

53

6.78

6.66

5.99

Irabu, Hideki

1994

Chiba Lotte

Jap Pac

Intl

25

207

170

77

70

0

94

239

3.34

3.04

2.25

Irabu, Hideki

1995

Chiba Lotte

Jap Pac

Intl

26

203

158

70

57

0

72

239

3.10

2.53

1.91

Irabu, Hideki

1996

Chiba Lotte

Jap Pac

Intl

27

157

108

57

42

0

59

167

3.26

2.40

2.20

Irabu, Hideki

1994-1996

Chiba Lotte

Jap Pac

Intl

25-27

181

135

65

52

0

69

203

3.22

2.57

2.10

MLB

514

547

307

294

91

175

405

5.38

5.15

4.95

Ishii, Kazuhisa

1999

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

25

133

123

75

71

16

71

162

5.08

4.80

3.93

Ishii, Kazuhisa

2000

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

26

183

137

54

53

15

73

210

2.66

2.61

3.17

Ishii, Kazuhisa

2001

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

27

175

135

74

66

18

73

173

3.81

3.39

3.81

Ishii, Kazuhisa

1999-2001

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

25-27

171

134

68

63

17

73

184

3.56

3.30

3.60

MLB

564

508

310

278

70

354

435

4.95

4.44

5.15

Kawakami, Kenshin

2006

Chunichi

Jap Cen

Intl

31

215

166

74

60

22

39

194

3.10

2.51

3.27

Kawakami, Kenshin

2007

Chunichi

Jap Cen

Intl

32

167

175

72

66

18

23

145

3.87

3.55

3.28

Kawakami, Kenshin

2008

Chunichi

Jap Cen

Intl

33

117

99

33

30

11

25

112

2.53

2.30

3.15

Kawakami, Kenshin

2006-2008

Chunichi

Jap Cen

Intl

31-33

150

136

53

47

15

27

137

3.16

2.81

3.23

MLB

244

251

130

117

25

89

164

4.80

4.32

4.28

Kuroda, Hiroki

2005

Hiroshima

Jap Cen

Intl

30

213

183

76

75

17

42

165

3.22

3.17

3.28

Kuroda, Hiroki

2006

Hiroshima

Jap Cen

Intl

31

189

169

49

39

12

21

144

2.33

1.85

2.84

Kuroda, Hiroki

2007

Hiroshima

Jap Cen

Intl

32

180

176

78

71

20

42

123

3.91

3.56

3.98

Kuroda, Hiroki

2005-2007

Hiroshima

Jap Cen

Intl

30-32

188

175

68

61

17

35

137

3.25

2.91

3.46

MLB

699

667

308

268

64

163

523

3.97

3.45

3.59

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

2004

Seibu

Jap Pac

Intl

23

146

127

50

47

7

42

127

3.08

2.90

2.95

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

2005

Seibu

Jap Pac

Intl

24

215

172

63

55

13

49

226

2.64

2.30

2.57

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

2006

Seibu

Jap Pac

Intl

25

186

138

50

44

13

34

200

2.42

2.13

2.51

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

2004-2006

Seibu

Jap Pac

Intl

23-25

189

148

54

48

12

40

197

2.59

2.29

2.59

MLB

623

569

304

294

64

301

568

4.39

4.25

4.16

Nomo, Hideo

1992

Kinetsu

Jap Pac

Intl

23

217

150

72

64

0

117

228

2.99

2.66

2.72

Nomo, Hideo

1993

Kinetsu

Jap Pac

Intl

24

243

201

111

100

0

148

276

4.11

3.70

2.76

Nomo, Hideo

1994

Kinetsu

Jap Pac

Intl

25

114

94

52

46

0

86

126

4.11

3.63

3.25

Nomo, Hideo

1992-1994

Kinetsu

Jap Pac

Intl

23-25

174

139

75

67

0

112

193

3.87

3.46

2.91

MLB

1976

1768

993

932

251

908

1918

4.52

4.24

4.29

Yoshii, Masato

1995

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

30

147

126

59

51

0

39

91

3.60

3.12

2.76

Yoshii, Masato

1996

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

31

180

154

71

65

0

47

145

3.54

3.24

2.37

Yoshii, Masato

1997

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

32

174

149

61

58

0

48

104

3.15

2.99

2.83

Yoshii, Masato

1995-1997

Yakult

Jap Cen

Intl

30-32

172

147

64

59

0

46

116

3.35

3.10

2.66

Yoshii, Masato_MLB

MLB

757

805

408

389

112

222

447

4.85

4.62

4.82

Same list, just looking at three-year weighed average and MLB career. I’ve pro-rated each pitcher’s innings to the smaller of the two.

Player

Level

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

RA

ERA

FIP

Igawa, Kei

Intl

72

69

31

27

8

20

67

3.90

3.36

3.54

MLB

72

89

54

53

15

37

53

6.78

6.66

5.99

Irabu, Hideki

Intl

181

135

65

52

16

69

203

3.22

2.57

3.25

MLB

181

193

108

103

32

62

143

5.38

5.15

4.95

Ishii, Kazuhisa

Intl

171

134

68

63

17

73

184

3.56

3.30

3.60

MLB

171

154

94

84

21

107

132

4.95

4.44

5.15

Kawakami, Kenshin

Intl

150

136

53

47

15

27

137

3.16

2.81

3.23

MLB

150

155

80

72

15

55

101

4.80

4.32

4.28

Kuroda, Hiroki

Intl

188

175

68

61

17

35

137

3.25

2.91

3.46

MLB

188

180

83

72

17

44

141

3.97

3.45

3.59

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

Intl

189

148

54

48

12

40

197

2.59

2.29

2.59

MLB

189

173

92

89

19

91

173

4.39

4.25

4.16

Nomo, Hideo

Intl

174

139

75

67

11

112

193

3.87

3.46

3.73

MLB

174

156

88

82

22

80

169

4.52

4.24

4.29

Yoshii, Masato

Intl

172

147

64

59

12

46

116

3.35

3.10

3.57

MLB

172

183

93

88

25

50

101

4.85

4.62

4.82

Average

Intl

162

135

60

53

13

53

154

3.31

2.94

3.35

MLB

162

160

86

81

21

66

127

4.80

4.47

4.54

%Change

Intl->MLB

1.18

1.45

1.52

1.56

1.25

0.82

1.45

1.52

1.35

The data for Irabu, Nomo and Yoshii was missing HRs allowed, so I used the average of difference between MLB HRs and Japan HRs allowed by the others to fudge it. That probably introduces more error in here, so keep it in mind.

This is not nearly as optimistic as the set of data that includes relievers, which I guess feels right to me.

Player

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

RA

ERA

FIP

Darvish, Yu

214

150

43

38

6

41

240

1.81

1.59

1.88

Darvish->Average

214

178

62

57

9

51

197

2.62

2.42

2.62

Darvish->Igawa, Kei

214

194

75

75

11

78

189

3.15

3.14

3.19

Darvish->Irabu, Hideki

214

214

72

75

11

37

168

3.03

3.18

2.83

Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa

214

173

60

51

7

61

172

2.52

2.14

2.88

Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin

214

172

65

58

6

85

177

2.75

2.44

3.08

Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki

214

155

52

45

6

52

247

2.21

1.88

1.97

Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke

214

176

73

70

9

93

211

3.08

2.94

3.10

Darvish->Nomo, Hideo

214

169

50

46

11

29

210

2.11

1.95

2.34

Darvish->Yoshii, Masato

214

187

62

56

12

45

211

2.62

2.37

2.59

The first line here is Darvish’s 2009-2011 three-year weighed average. Each subsequent line is what his stats would like if he saw the same % difference in his component stats that the average starter did, as well as how it would look if he ended up following the path of each individual starter.

Think about this. If Darvish’s struggles to the same relative extent that Kei Igawa has, he’d have an ERA of 3.15.

I think Darvish very well might be one of the best pitchers on the planet right now. He’s probably not, but the Yankees should really go all out for him. Just in case he is.