Exploratory Analyses for Y2K, New Year, 1999 to 2000

Because the Y2K transition was both complex and important to the GCP, we
have conducted a large number of exploratory analyses, some of which are
quite interesting even though they cannot be used as evidence in
support of any Formal Predictions.
In addition to the material in this survey of explorations,
various other subsidiary analyses have been performed to examine the
data taken around the time of the New Year transition. These are
available for study in the First Results
page and via other links.

Formal prediction, RDN, analysis by George deBeaumont

Based on the significant results shown during the New Year
transition 1998 to 1999, a similar prediction was made
that the Y2K data would show unusual structure
around midnight, specifically in the period midnight
± 5 minutes, across all eggs
and all time zones. The prediction specified that the raw
second-by-second data would be used, and that the measure would be the
composite Chisquare
representing the total deviation from expectation
across all data for the 10-minute period.

One of the assumptions made for the sake of hypothesis generation for
the GCP is that the effects are spatially non-local, and under this
assumption, each egg is affected by co-temporaneous events, no matter
where they take place on the earth. Thus, at midnight in any given time
zone, we hypothesize that the effects of the conscious engagement of everyone
celebrating there will be felt by all eggs in the GCP network. An hour
later, when the celebration reaches the next time zone, there will again
be a global effect, impinging on all of the GCP recording devices.

The following composite figure for 10 timezones and 22 eggs
was constructed on a slightly different hypothesis, using data only from
timezones where one or more eggs are located. It uses about
one-fourth of the intended data, because not all eggs had reported when
it was completed, but primarily because it excludes data corresponding
to the celebration period for all timezones which did not have an egg.

Synchronized deviation of Chisquare: 22 eggs, 10 timezones, GdB

The figure does not show a consistent positive trend, so that
for this subset of the data
we would have to conclude that the formal prediction of a deviation in
the 10 minutes surrounding midnight is not supported.
However, the non-locality assumption requires that all eggs and all
timezones be used in the analysis, and on March 10, 2000, we
were able to construct the complete analysis.

Synchronized Deviation: 21 eggs, 10 timezones, RDN

First, to check that the
computations would produce approximately the same result, the
data from the same 10 timezones (actually 21 eggs instead of 22; I had
problems dealing with missing data in one case)
used by George deBeaumont were synchronized and plotted.
The resulting cumulative deviation trace is roughly similar in form
and the statistical outcome is virtually the same, with
Chisquare = 579.93 on 600 df, p = 0.704.

The details of the method are explained in a
description of the approach Dean felt was
most suitable (Jan 23). I have tried some variations on this general
approach, which, in an exploratory mode, simply looks for signs of
structure in the data correlated
with the timing of the Y2K celebrations. In practice, an exploration
sweeps across the data compounded from all the midnights in different
timezones. The main tools for such exploration are graphical
visualization procedures, and if there is something unusual about
the data at the Y2K transition, it may be revealed in a variety of ways.

Except for pre-specified analyses, such as Dean's original prediction of
a reduction in variance due to coherent engagement, these analyses are
not intended for inclusion in the formal database of GCP predictions.
Ed May and James Spottiswoode have provided
independent oversight and cross-checks.
When their analyses are available they will be added to this survey.

Other explorations using a related kurtosis
measure (X = e^-kurt)
yielded similar results, buttressed by an extensive permutation analysis
and application of the procedures to data from 1, 2, and 15 days
after the Y2K transition.
The following two figures display these results, but note, due to a
computation error, the y-axis scale is incorrect and exaggerates the
significance; the actual maximum Z is on the order of 3.5, and the odds
in the second figure have a maximum of about 10e4 or 10e5, not 10e11.

Z-score for Kurtosis Measure, GCP Data at Midnight, Y2K and Controls

Log Odds Against Chance for Kurtosis Measure, Y2K and Controls

The kurtosis method was applied to the data from the previous
year, for comparison. These data show a somewhat similar structure to
that of the Y2K transition, but the deviation at midnight is somewhat
weaker, and there are competing minima elsewhere.