Afghanistan

Pakistan and Russia signed a ‘Defence and Military Cooperation Agreement’ on November 20 in Rawalpindi during the significantly first-ever visit of a Russian Defence Minister to Pakistan in the changing security environment.

Indi’s security environment is once again in danger of becoming more threatening when viewed from the prism of the ongoing engagement of Pakistan Army and the United States in reinventing mutual strategic indispensability.

Afghanistan post-2014 politico-strategic perspectives are complex, intriguing and clouded by unpredictability given its tortured history where external powers outplayed their strategic hands at the cost of Afghanistan’s political stability.

A paper produced by late B. Raman in 2013 on the consequences of US withdrawal from Afghanistan in end 2014 is reproduced below. The points made by him including India’s options are still relevant. The only change if any is that the Haqqani network has emerged stronger thanks to the total support given by ISI of Pakistan. -- Director

(This is a summary of a presentation made by the author at the Institute of Defence Studies, Delhi on 8th of March, 2013.)

I must compliment the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis for this exercise. It displays a recognition that intelligence analysis plays a vital role in identifying strategic interests and suggesting options to deal with them.

The projected drawback of United States and NATO Forces in 2014 has once again rekindled Pakistan Army’s imperial pretensions over Afghanistan. Post-2014 scenarios being discussed in the strategic community paint dismal scenarios of Afghanistan re-emerging as a global and regional hotspot with destabilising spill-over effects all around.