President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden maintain a lead over Republican challengers Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (53% to 41%) among California likely voters in the upcoming presidential election. Findings were similar last month and in July. The second presidential debate occurred while the survey was being conducted. Likely voters nationwide remain closely divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney), according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted at about the same time as our survey.

Overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Republican likely voters support their partys candidate, while independent likely voters are divided (44% Obama, 43% Romney). Obama led Romney by a wider margin among independents in September (13 points) and July (16 points). While both men (50% Obama, 43% Romney) and women (57% Obama, 38% Romney) prefer Obama, women do so by a larger margin.

The youth vote played an important role in Obamas 2008 victory; in California, likely voters under 35 still support him by a wide margin (69% to 23% for Romney). A similar share of young voters supported Obama in October 2008 (65%). Voters 35 to 54 are divided (47% Obama, 46% Romney), while voters age 55 and older have a slight preference for Obama (51% Obama, 44% Romney). Obama has a solid lead among those with lower household incomes (63% less than $40,000), while about half of those earning more support Obama.

Majorities of likely voters in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area prefer Obama, while a majority of Other Southern California voters (53%) prefer Romney. Voters in the Central Valley are divided. Majorities of evangelical Protestants (58%) and mainline Protestants (53%) support Romney; Catholics prefer Obama. Those with no religion strongly support Obama.

Its very soft! He got 62% last time in CA so this is a fall of almost 10 percentage points off his last win there. His supporters are not that enthusiastic - and I bet it’ll be even closer there than the polls indicate.

In case people are wondering why California has moved so far to the left. Changing demographics.

Correct. If only white people were voting, the Democratic party would lose decisively even in California.

Unfortunately, demographics are moving rapidly against us. More and more states will look increasingly like California demographics-wise. Unless we can figure out a way to win a higher share of minority (Hispanic) voters, in another generation (or less) we will be hard pressed to win even Texas.

If you’re lucky, maybe a giant tidal wave will sweep in and wash away all of the fruits, nuts, and flakes that infest the california coast. Maybe then could california could reclaim its title as the golden state. Such a shame that a wonderful state has been dragged down that far by liberal minions.

Reality is that California’s 55 electoral votes represent the singular reason any Democrat can be elected to the presidency. The GOP needs to start making inroads in the cities and California. It can be done but needs some creative thinking.

A question for whomever can answer it. How would the electorial votes pan out IF California let each congressional district pick (based upon voting in that district) to whom the districts EV goes? Would there be many or just a few EVs going to Romney.

I suspect that the “winner take all” system heavily favors a dem candidate. I think that CA probably has a great many congressional districts where a GOP pres candidate would win. Is this true?

26
posted on 10/25/2012 5:37:38 PM PDT
by Sola Veritas
(Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)

Those of us born, raised, schooled, and worked for 30 years in CA are expected to up and move because of the politics.

That's up to you. If you want to live in a socialist hellhole, stay in California. I'd leave if I were stuck there and had the means to get out, but I can understand why others choose a different path. There is an argument to be made that states like yours can never recover if all the good conservatives bail. Kinda like the brain drain Cuba has suffered.

Yeah, I'm in New York. Family came to Mass in 1620’s, bought 300 acres of land here in upstate NY in the 1790’s and here I sit. Not leaving but not happy about state politics. At least my county is usually red.

I suspect that the winner take all system heavily favors a dem candidate. I think that CA probably has a great many congressional districts where a GOP pres candidate would win. Is this true?

You are correct. The majority of the state, geographically, is rural and conservative. The urban areas of Lost Angeles and San Francisco drag us into the sewer every time. Orange County used to be solidly, reliably, conservative - not anymore.

no surprise, that Kalifornia, the home of kooks, feminazis, environazis, open-borders nazis, retreat from our national security interest Libertarians, and a state that business and people who are producers are fleeing from - would be for Obama

Kalifornia is the Greece of the U.S.

a financial basket case of its own making

(I grew up there and still have family there)

majorities there have taken up and made a priority of every nutty and destructive left wing cause

those who remain (a majority of them) are constantly reaping what they’ve sown and then looking for scapegoats for what’s happened, and repeating the same “solution”, which is in effect saying - “we don’t need new policies or new directions, we just aren’t taxing enough”; then the cycle repeats, things continue to deteriorate, the scapegoating continues, and the next solution is more taxes

will the last producer to leave California please take the state flag with you

You Freepers have hit upon a truth, and it is something that has concerned me for some time: How to start producing conservative thought throughout the land. We aren't getting it done, and Barky was a manifestation of that.

Personally, I think contrasting classic American thought borne from Aristotelian logic with progressivism, would win out; but how to do it, is the stickler. I don't see conservatives winning in future elections just because of the reality of what our educational indoctrination centers are producing.

I think as soon as this election is over, a cell needs to be formed (with Jim Rob's permission) to tackle this. We are destined for defeat absent intentional effort to do so. Thoughts?

45
posted on 10/25/2012 6:25:34 PM PDT
by Salvavida
(The restoration of the U.S.A. starts with filling the pews at every Bible-believing church.)

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