Friday, August 11, 2017

Post Mosul Liberation Day 31 Aug 10 2017

Workers removing explosives from Mosul (Reuters)

Removing rubble from west Mosul’s Old City (Reuters)

Shopping in an east
Mosul market (Reuters)

Islamic State elements continued to be discovered, killed,
and carry out attacks in Mosul. A gunman opened
fire on the Victory bridge, the only connection between the two sides of the
city leaving two dead and three wounded. The police claimed they killed 47 IS members
since the city was liberated at the start of July, along with finding hundreds
of weapons and explosives. These attacks, while low level, show that Mosul,
especially the western half is still not secure. The number of IS elements
appears to be small, but they are still spreading fear. The attacks are a major
reason why many people have not returned or are leaving.

There was a shootout between two Hashd factions in east
Mosul. The Badr and Khorasani brigades got into an argument
over distributing humanitarian aid in the Samoud neighborhood. That escalated
to gunfire with three Hashd being wounded. This is the second time a
disagreement between Hashd forces has led to violence. There are dozens of
different security forces operating in the city. Many of these are rivals of
each other, highlighted by this incident. This is the reason why Mosul and
Hashd officials have called security “chaotic.” There are too many units with
no coordination or leadership.

Canada is going to help with securing Mosul. It announced
that 20 police will be heading to the city in the coming weeks and stay until
2019. They will likely act as advisers. The problem is that there are hardly
any police in Mosul, which is the reason why there are so many different forces
are operating there. The Canadians might be trainers as well as Baghdad wants
to rebuild the Ninewa police.

The Iraqi forces are ready for the Tal Afar campaign to
begin, but there was some controversy over the Americans’ role. First, the
spokesman for the Joint Operations Command General Yahya Rasool told
the press that the army had surrounded the district and cut off IS supply lines
to Syria, something the Hashd said they had done back in 2016. General Tali
Shaghati of the Golden Division was the latest to predict
that Tal Afar would be easy. Combat won’t be half as hard as Mosul, but the
Islamic State hasn’t lost its willingness to fight. According
to Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s Jawad Talabawi, President Barzani pushed the U.S. to
pressure Baghdad to exclude the Hashd from the Tal Afar operation. That was denied by Hashd leader
Hashim Moussawi who said that any stories about the Hashd not participating
were only personal opinions and did not represent the force. Finally, 70 U.S.
advisers arrived
at the Kahriz base to assist with the upcoming battle. There was also a story
that the Americans were building a base, but that might have been about the
same location. Talabawi’s comments were the latest by pro-Iran forces to
discredit the U.S. presence in Iraq. Earlier Sayid Shuhada claimed
that the American air strikes hit them along the Iraq-Syrian border, which if
did occur didn’t happen in Iraq but in Syria. Now Asaib Ahl Al-Haq issued a
statement that Washington is blocking Hashd from military operations. Politicians
have also voiced concerns about the U.S. constructing a base. This goes along
with other stories that the U.S. is supporting the Islamic State. Unfortunately,
these stories get wide coverage within Iraq and are believed by many people. As
for Tal Afar, there were reports that the Iraqi forces were ready for at the
end of July, but those were untrue. Not all the Hashd, army and police forces
were in place by then. Now it appears that the units are just waiting for the
order to go.

Al Jazeera talked
about how IS used government workers in the two years it controlled Mosul. The
militants tried to employ state employees when it took over the city in the
summer of 2014. The top administration was replaced by IS members, but the rest
of the positions were left to the existing workforce. The insurgents threatened
to kill those that didn’t continue with their jobs. The situation was helped in
part by Baghdad paying the salaries of their employees. IS shaped the
administration to benefit itself. For instance, IS neighborhoods and buildings
got 24 hours of power, while the rest of the city had frequent blackouts.
Within a year, the Islamic State had gotten stricter. It banned smoking, mobile
phones, satellite dishes. There was an army of informers to find people who
broke these rules. In July 2015, Baghdad cut off payments to its workers. IS
took up the task but at lower wages. After the city was liberated, many civil
employees have gone back to work. Most of them are not getting paid nor
supplies, leading to growing resentment against the government. They continue
to work to serve their community, but like many attempting to put the city back
together they feel that Baghdad has done little to help.

Human Rights Watch reported
that 15 lawyers working in the terrorism court in Qaraqosh had arrest warrants
issued for them because they worked for the IS judicial system. Six of the
attorneys have been arrested. One observer believed this was done to undermine
the defense of IS suspects before the judiciary. Another reason might be the
haphazard way in which the government has gone after those considered
collaborators with the Islamic State.

Hundreds of people are making trips back and forth
throughout Ninewa. The total number of displaced
(IDPs) has plateaued, but is still slowly rising. On June 29, when there was
still major combat going on in Mosul there were 819,534 IDPs in the
governorate. That reached a high of 846,252 on July 20. The figures took a dip
afterward before climbing back up to 839,490 by August 10. 244,644 people have
also returned to their home areas. The United Nations has pointed out that
figure is complicated by the growing number of people going through a second
displacement. For example,
from August 4-7, 809 families arrived in camps. The majority of those were in
camps before, went back to Mosul to stay with relatives or rent a house, but then
left again because they ran out of money. This is now happening in other
sections of Ninewa as well as 31 families went through the same thing in Zummar
and Wana before heading back to camps. 100 families also arrived from Tal Afar
fearing the upcoming battle for the district. During that same period 532
families left camps. Most of those head to east Mosul, but could share the fate
of the recent camp arrivals. Much has been made of the recovery going on in
east Mosul. One thing is that there are few opportunities. People are going to
markets for instance, but most are using credit or their savings. Few if any of
the government workers who are at their jobs are receiving salaries. At the
same time, the increasing demand for housing is doubling, sometimes tripling
rents, which eventually drive people out because they can’t find employment to
cover the bills. As the state is the main employer and it has little money due
to low oil prices there may be no solution to this dilemma anytime soon.

SOURCES

Ahmad, Rezan, "Five civilians were killed
and wounded by gunfire from passerby on a bridge in central Mosul," Bas
News, 8/10/17

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com