Fasten your seat belts, strap on your helmets. The mid-term elections are underway. The polls had barely closed with winners declared on election night when the political TV ads started to appear for the senatorial and gubernatorial nominees across the state. There may yet be a slight lull in the onslaught of commercials. But make no mistake. The negative ads may soon begin.

Tennessee is a battleground state. The elections to replace Gov. Bill Haslam and U.S. Sen. Bob Corker will make it so. On the Republican side, we can expect President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence to “grace” us with their presence on multiple occasions before November. Much is at stake politically. And much will ride on which candidates most closely have their fingers on the pulse of voters in this state: Karl Dean or Bill Lee; Marsha Blackburn or Phil Bredesen.

An early read indicates that the Democrats might be more attuned to the mood in the state. In the primary election, neither Blackburn nor Bredesen had any real competition. Dean trounced his opponent. No contest.

But there is a lesson to be learned in the Republican governor’s primary race. Negative campaigning carries its risks. So does campaigning on issues most voters do not deem overly important to their daily lives. Tennesseans care more about health care and less about spending billions upon unending billions for a wall along our southern border. They were promised that Mexico, not American taxpayers, would pay for “the wall.” They care more about education for their kids than about the MS-13 bogeyman of non-existent gangs in Tennessee. In-state polls have shown as much. Diane Black and Randy Boyd did not take heed.

Voters often complain about mud-slinging, smear-your-opponent campaigns but still vote for those guilty of such tactics. Not so much this time. The Republican favorites, Black and Boyd, fell to Lee, who refused to employ these strategies. They eliminated each other with negative campaigning, allowing him to slip through the opening.

Neither Dean nor Lee seem inclined to engage in negative campaigning. But in the heat of a race, sometimes people become unpredictable. Given his political history, Bredesen also seems unlikely to employ such tactics. But the Blackburn campaign could be so inclined, especially if -- as early polls indicate -- she finds herself behind. Legitimate criticism of an opponent’s record is exactly that -- legitimate. And any candidate who has held public office will have some vulnerabilities. Bredesen’s cuts to TennCare when he was governor could prove to be fodder for Blackburn.

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Karl Dean gives his victory speech after defeating Craig Fitzhugh in the Democratic primary for governor.
George Walker, Tennessean

But Blackburn is not without her vulnerabilities. She has tied herself to Trump, whose popularity is declining, even in Tennessee. Bredesen has criticized Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum from foreign countries. This is hurting Volkswagen and General Motors, which produce cars and trucks in this state. These tariffs have produced counter-levies on U.S. products in overseas markets and have targeted important agricultural export products for farmers like soybeans and poultry -- and whiskey.

Bredesen has not been alone in criticizing Trump for these measures. He has been joined by Republican senators Corker and Lamar Alexander. Blackburn has remained mum, being so closely tethered to Trump.

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Randy Boyd bites back tears while speaking at his watch party at Jackson Terminal in Knoxville, Tennessee on Thursday, August 2, 2018. (Photo: Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel)

Then there is the opioid crisis racking the state and Blackburn’s role in paralyzing the Drug Enforcement Administration’s efforts to halt the spread of these drugs. She co-sponsored legislation that blocked that agency from restricting the shipment of these addictive painkillers to doctors and pharmacies, thereby providing an unrestricted flow of opioids across the nation. It was an unconscionable act. And every day on newscasts, we are reminded of the consequences of her actions. Will Bredesen use her record on the spread of opioids to attack her?

Mid-terms are not national elections. But this election will be nationalized. Given the way Trump sucks up all the oxygen in the room, his narcissistic tendencies, and the policies and programs he has put forward, this election will be a referendum on his presidency. Trump is trying to rev up the energy on the right. But there is a lot of energy infusing the opposition on the left -- and in the middle. There is an axiom that “all politics are local.” Maybe not this time.

Theotis Robinson Jr. is a freelance writer, former Knoxville City Council member and retired vice president of equity and diversity of the University of Tennessee. He may be reached at thewriteone7@comcast.net.