FRAMINGHAM, Mass. — (BUSINESS WIRE) — March 12, 2015 —
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -4.9% in 2015, a drop
from the previous forecast of -3.3%, while growth projections for 2016
and 2017 were raised slightly, according to the International Data
Corporation (
IDC)
Worldwide
Quarterly PC Tracker. Fourth quarter 2014 (4Q14) results were 1.7%
ahead of forecast, but economic and product changes will create a head
wind in the short term. Total 2015 volume is projected at 293.1 million
PCs, slipping a little further to 291.4 million in 2019. In value terms,
the PC market reached US$201 billion in 2014, a decline of -0.8%, and is
expected to fall another -6.9% in 2015 with smaller declines in
subsequent years bringing the total to US$175 billion by 2019.

Although portions of the market saw genuine improvements in demand
during the second half of 2014, part of the 4Q14 volume was inflated by
an inventory build-up of "Windows 8.1 + Bing" systems in anticipation of
Microsoft scaling back subsidies in early 2015. IDC expects the short
term impact to hit consumer channels as they work to clear stock. In
addition, average prices are likely to rise in the near term with the
scaling back of Bing subsidies, the strong US Dollar (which makes
systems more expensive abroad), and the continuing shift to slim,
convertible, and touch-based systems. Furthermore, while recent
processor updates have generated positive reception, more significant
product refreshes from the likes of Intel (Skylake platform) and
Microsoft (Windows 10) will be released later in the year, shifting OEM
product updates and consumer interest toward later in 2015.

"Fortunately for PC makers, tablet growth has slowed," said
Jay
Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers. "The PC
ecosystem has also begun to see some fruits from efforts to narrow the
divide between the PC and mobile devices in terms of both user
experience and price points. Nevertheless, much more needs to be done as
advances in both hardware and software are expected to benefit an ever
wider spectrum of form factors, such as 2-in-1 devices that will further
siphon volume from notebooks."

Emerging markets continue to struggle, finishing 2014 with a decline of
9.5% in PC shipments and with 2015 growth projections lowered to -4.7%,
pushing volume down throughout the forecast. Continued political
instability, commodity pricing pressures, and currency devaluations in
these regions have curtailed spending across a number of sectors,
including public projects that provided a boost in recent years.
Competition from other devices such as phones, tablets, and wearable
tech also pose an ongoing challenge to PC spending. Although emerging
regions are still expected to see positive growth by 2017, shipment
projections remain below 160 million units through 2019, down from 163.7
million in 2014.

Mature regions continued to fare better, ending 2014 with positive
growth of 8.4% for the year, the first growth year since 2010. This
growth was supported by XP system replacements, slowing tablet
purchases, and aggressive PC pricing. Nevertheless, PC volumes in mature
regions are expected to drop by -5.1% in 2015 with incremental declines
thereafter. Building on the strength of 2014 volume as well as
attractive products in the premium and low-priced segments, projections
for PC volume in mature regions are up slightly to 134 million in 2019
from the prior forecast of 130 million.

The introduction of Windows 10 later this year is expected to be well
received and support the Windows ecosystem, including some replacements.
However, it will also provide a better experience with mouse and
keyboard, effectively relieving some pressure to move toward touch, and
support non-PC devices like 2-in-1s, likely without boosting total PC
shipments significantly.

"The gains in mature regions for 2014 helped stabilize the market, but
any opportunity for long-term growth depends on reviving growth in
emerging regions, and that seems unlikely with the shift toward mobile
devices," said
Loren
Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers. "Even including
2-in-1 systems would only boost the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
for total PC shipments through 2019 from -1.1% to 0.5%. Vendors can
focus on growth segments of the PC market such as AIO, slim and
convertible PCs, or consolidate share, but pressure on pricing and from
competing devices will continue to make it a challenging market."