The 2014 draft just got deeper... Hands off the 1st round pick Colangelo!

With no post season to talk about and no draft to look forward to this season, the 2014 draft has suddenly become much more interesting. Like most Raptor fans, hope in the future is all I have.

Anyways, if Colangelo touches the 2014 draft pick, I'll lose my shit. It is looking to be one of the deeper drafts in recent years headlined by Canada's own Andrew Wiggins.

Something phenomenal and way out of the ordinary happened this week though. Marcus Smart, widely thought to be a top 5 pick (top 3 say some), decided to stay in school.

I am aware of how much money I am giving up. I am aware of that.

ó Marcus Smart

"I feel like making that decision and giving up that much money showed me the true colors of some people in my life and the people close to me," he said. "It showed the true colors of how they really think and how they really feel of me."

Yeah, I saw that about Smart. Definitely a surprising decision not to declare. Given the strength of next year's class it's a pretty risky move.

As for the Raps, not really sure what I'd want to happen with next year's pick. I want it to add talent to the team, and talent that fits in the long-term, not just a band-aid. If that happens to be in a good trade, I'll accept that...but if BC just throws the pick around trying to shed Bargs or trying to acquire something like a backup big or PG, I'll be beyond disappointed.

Yeah, I saw that about Smart. Definitely a surprising decision not to declare. Given the strength of next year's class it's a pretty risky move.

As for the Raps, not really sure what I'd want to happen with next year's pick. I want it to add talent to the team, and talent that fits in the long-term, not just a band-aid. If that happens to be in a good trade, I'll accept that...but if BC just throws the pick around trying to shed Bargs or trying to acquire something like a backup big or PG, I'll be beyond disappointed.

I don't think the guys care too much about where and what position they get drafted, especially if they stay back to improve their game. With so many late-1st-round gems emerging in the past few years, unless you're the #1 overall pick, being drafted later rather than sooner shouldn't cause too much of a problem.

I am not sure about that. The first two years are the only thing guaranteed for a first round pick. The difference between 3rd and 13th in guaranteed money is $7.1 and $3.2m. With the 3rd and 4th year options picked up the spread only gets wider.

I don't think the guys care too much about where and what position they get drafted, especially if they stay back to improve their game. With so many late-1st-round gems emerging in the past few years, unless you're the #1 overall pick, being drafted later rather than sooner shouldn't cause too much of a problem.

The issue is money...If he had gone top 5 or top 3, he would make significantly more than he will if he slides down. I don't think he cares because of ego or anything, but it can be a difference of several million dollars over the length of the deal.

*Hadn't gotten to Matt52's post yet, with some numbers in it to show just how significant a difference it can be.

I don't think the guys care too much about where and what position they get drafted, especially if they stay back to improve their game. With so many late-1st-round gems emerging in the past few years, unless you're the #1 overall pick, being drafted later rather than sooner shouldn't cause too much of a problem.

Ok, I get the rookie salaries and all that. In Smart's case, he even says that he's aware of how much money he's giving up.

By staying back, he's showing he has the work ethic to give up said money and get better. If he can bring that with him to the NBA, he may be more valuable in the long run, and as a result receive a bigger contract than his counterparts.

I know it's BC who made the contract, but DeRozan could be an example of this.

It also seems that as the 2013 Draft gets weaker, the odds of moving into the draft gets stronger as well. If there is someone in the late teens/early 20's that strongly appeals to Colangelo I don't think it would take very much to get a deal done. In actuality, it could be our pick (12), Forbes, and (additional asset) for Lowry and pick 20.

I already feel that this pick straight up for Lowry is a situation that we won (I would not feel this way with the 2014 draft...or possibly even a normal draft), but if we can move into the late first round without much difficulty that would seal the deal for me.

Well, from a "develop your craft" perspective it's a nice, old school, classy decision. Unfortunately this is a business and not a sports movie. I can't think of any intelligent reason to stay another year. He's gonna lose a ton of money, risks injury for nothing and is going to get the Harrison Barnes/Perry Jones treatment. Those guys stayed an extra year and went from consensus top 3 to 7 and 28. It just makes zero sense to play for nothing against lesser talent while opening yourself up to the extra scrutiny.

Ok, I get the rookie salaries and all that. In Smart's case, he even says that he's aware of how much money he's giving up.

By staying back, he's showing he has the work ethic to give up said money and get better. If he can bring that with him to the NBA, he may be more valuable in the long run, and as a result receive a bigger contract than his counterparts.

I know it's BC who made the contract, but DeRozan could be an example of this.

EDIT: He's an example of the work ethic, not staying back.

I hear ya in the sense that he is obviously taking a longer term view. But, lets be clear, if he didnt think he had a good chance of improving his draft status by staying the extra year, it would be a bad decision.
Personally, I think hes crazy. With a weak draft this year .. he probably is a top five pick. With all the talent next year, even if he improves a LOT, top five will be a very tall order .. and he very well could be James Michael Macadoo sliding to the bottom of the first round.

I totally get staying an extra year to try to improve your draft position .. but to suggest that I guy would stay an extra year and be just as happy getting picked in the mid teens vs top 5 the previous year is flat out crazy

Well, from a "develop your craft" perspective it's a nice, old school, classy decision. Unfortunately this is a business and not a sports movie. I can't think of any intelligent reason to stay another year. He's gonna lose a ton of money, risks injury for nothing and is going to get the Harrison Barnes/Perry Jones treatment. Those guys stayed an extra year and went from consensus top 3 to 7 and 28. It just makes zero sense to play for nothing against lesser talent while opening yourself up to the extra scrutiny.

From a financial perspective, he really is crazy. But what struck me most about the article was the quote I had in the OP:

"I feel like making that decision and giving up that much money showed me the true colors of some people in my life and the people close to me," he said. "It showed the true colors of how they really think and how they really feel of me."

Assuming he slips next season and loses money, it might be money well spent if it allows him to remove the hanger-ons from his life as it appears a few have been identified.

The 2013 draft is looking better and better. Team World outclassed team USA, with all those superstuds, Parker, Randle, the Harrison twins, etc., by 14 points. Jean Livio Charles, shooting forward from France, was the MVP with 27 points and 13 rebounds. The best point guard on the floor was Dennis Schroeder of Germany, 18 points and 6 assists. He just declared for the draft. Sergei Karesev from Russia is a lights out shooter also having declared.

The 2013 draft is looking better and better. Team World outclassed team USA, with all those superstuds, Parker, Randle, the Harrison twins, etc., by 14 points. Jean Livio Charles, shooting forward from France, was the MVP with 27 points and 13 rebounds. The best point guard on the floor was Dennis Schroeder of Germany, 18 points and 6 assists. He just declared for the draft. Sergei Karesev from Russia is a lights out shooter also having declared.

A guy I can't stop thinking of since Smart made his decision: Willie Warren. Probably because they have some similar aspects to their game and body types.

Warren played with Griffin his freshman year in college. He had a great year, and if I remember correctly was widely considered a lottery pick (I think even top 10?) in 2009. He decided to stay another year....to work on his game? to try and shine without being in Griffin's shadow? I don't know why. He had a decent sophomore year, but he didn't improve much and had to fight an injury....he ended up going 54th in the 2010 draft. From lottery pick to 54....and then he was a benchwarmer for the Clippers for a year before washing out of the NBA.

Nerlens Noel had an insurance policy. I am sure if Smart does not have one he will surely have one for next year.

From a financial perspective, he really is crazy.

Sure, Smart will have a policy that will pay him a few millions if he suffers a career-ending injury. He certainly has proven to be good enough talent for someone (or a financial institution) to loan him a large sum (tens of thousands) to pay for said policy.

This decision will cost him at least $3M in salaries over the next four years. It's possible he hopes his increased college visibility will allow him to land a bigger shoe (or whatever) contract, but that's a risk that I would not take... I believe his financial advisor gave him really bad advice.