Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the front-runner in a possible 2016 presidential primary in
Florida, but he is slipping there and stalled in two other key swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania,
according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Wisconsin Gov. Scott
Walker is moving up and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is back in the pack.

Despite the firestorm over her use of e-mails as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton holds
commanding leads, with 48 to 65 percent of Democrats in each state, topping her nearest
challenger by 3-1 to 6-1, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no
candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

If Clinton stays out of the race, Vice President Joseph Biden leads the Democratic pack in
Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with tallies ranging from 34 percent to 42 percent.

Republican primary matchups show:
Florida: Bush leads with 24 percent, down from 32 percent in a February 4 Quinnipiac
University poll. Walker is next with 15 percent, with U.S. Sen Marco Rubio at 12 percent.
Ohio: Gov. John Kasich gets the native son vote with 20 percent, with Walker, U.S. Sen. Ted
Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9 percent each, Bush at 8 percent, compared
to 10 percent February 4, and Ben Carson at 8 percent.
Pennsylvania: Walker at 14 percent with 9 percent each for Carson, former U.S. Sen. Rick
Santorum and Bush, who was at 12 percent last month.

"Gov. Scott Walker continues to be the surprise in the early part of the 2016 campaign.
We've got a long way to go till Iowans caucus next winter, but the Wisconsin governor has
climbed into the first tier of contenders along with establishment favorite Jeb Bush, who can't be
happy with his numbers today," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Bush has a lead over the field in his home state of Florida, but it's not anywhere near
insurmountable. There is no clear leader in Pennsylvania and Gov. John Kasich, the native son,
is ahead in Ohio," Brown added.

"On the Democratic side Secretary Clinton's commanding lead for the nomination is only
slightly less commanding, apparently due to the news media focus on questions about her email
and foreign government donations to her family foundation. But Democratic primary voters still
consider her a demi-god and those who think she is beatable in a nomination fight caucus in
phone booths."

Florida

Clinton leads among Florida Democrats with 65 percent of the vote, followed by Vice
President Biden with 11 percent and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 7 percent.

If Bush does not run, Rubio gets 21 percent of Florida Republicans, with 17 percent for
Walker, 9 percent for Carson and 8 percent for Cruz.

With Walker out, Bush gets 26 percent, with 15 percent for Rubio and 10 percent each
for Carson and Cruz.

"Hillary Clinton does better among Florida Democrats than she does in Ohio and
Pennsylvania," Brown said. "Whatever the reason, with an 87 percent favorable rating from
Sunshine State Democrats, she has an enormous lead among members of her own party."

Ohio

Clinton tops the Democratic pack in Ohio with 54 percent, with Warren at 14 percent and
Biden at 9 percent.

If Clinton does not run, Biden gets 34 percent, with 25 percent for Warren.

If Bush steps aside, Kasich takes 22 percent of Ohio Republicans, with 10 percent for
Walker, and 9 percent each for Cruz and Huckabee.

With Walker out, Kasich keeps his 22 percent, with 11 percent for Cruz and 9 percent
each for Bush, Huckabee and Carson.

"Gov. John Kasich's decision about whether to join the presidential campaign at least for
now is the big unknown in the Buckeye State," Brown said. "If he runs, he would be the early
leader at home, although his appeal in other states is yet to be shown."

Pennsylvania

Clinton gets 48 percent among Democrats in Pennsylvania, the only Swing State where
she drops under 50 percent. Warren gets 15 percent, with 13 percent for Keystone State native
Biden.

With Clinton out, Biden gets 34 percent with 27 percent for Warren.

If Bush steps out, Pennsylvania Republicans go 14 percent for Walker, 9 percent each for
Carson and Santorum and 8 percent each for Cruz, Paul and Rubio.

With Walker out, Carson gets 11 percent, with 10 percent each for Bush and Cruz and 9
percent each for Rubio and Santorum.

"The e-mail to Hillary Clinton loyalists could read, 'Taking some hits, but hanging
tough,' as Pennsylvania Democrats seem to be sticking by her," said Tim Malloy, assistant
director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From March 17 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,087 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 428
registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 344 registered
Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent.

1,077 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. This includes 404 registered
Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and 324 registered Democrats with a
margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.

1,036 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. This includes 442
registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 415 registered
Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion
surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado
and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on
Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held
today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz,
Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?

2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held
today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley,
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?

2B. (If Registered Democrat) What's your preference: that Hillary Clinton runs unopposed
for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or that Clinton runs for the
nomination but that other Democrats also run, or that Clinton does not run for the
presidential nomination?