New House Building

In 2015-16, 15,854 new build houses were completed in
Scotland, an decrease of 355 homes (2%) on the previous year when
16,209 had been completed.

During the same time period the number of new houses
started increased by 664 homes (4%) from 16,246 in 2014-15 to
16,910 in 2015-16, the highest annual number of starts since
2008-09.

Looking just at the new house building element of housing supply
15,854 homes were completed in 2015-16, a decrease of 355 homes
(2%) on the previous year when 16,209 had been completed. At the
same time there was an increase of 664 (4%) in the number of homes
on which construction started from 16,246 in 2014-15 to 16,910 in
2015-16. This is the highest number of home starts since
2008-09.

The early 1950s and late 1960s saw about 41,000 to 43,000 new
houses completed each year. This was primarily due to programmes of
post-war reconstruction and slum clearances which saw huge numbers
of, predominantly public sector, housing being built.

Throughout the 1970s and early 1980s the level of new build fell
and fewer than 20,000 homes were completed each year throughout
much of the 1980s. This was caused by a large decline in the number
of social sector houses being built. Meanwhile the number of new
private houses was generally on the rise and continued to increase
until the economic downturn in 2008. By 2007-08 private sector new
build represented around 84% of all completions compared to between
3% and 7% in the early part of the 1950s.

Chart 3: New house building in Scotland:1920 to 2015
(calendar Years)

The recession hit the private house building industry
particularly hard and by 2012-13 starts and completions had fallen
by 50% and 55% respectively since 2007-08. Both the numbers of
homes started and the number completed have increased on an annual
basis each year since 2012-13
[1]. The number of starts stands at 12,497, up by 1% from 2014-15
and at their highest level since 2008-09. However this is still 38%
below the number started in 2007-08. Private sector completions
meanwhile have risen by 3% since 2014-15 to 12,396. This is the
highest number of completions since 2008-09 but 43% below the level
in 2007-08. In September 2013 the Scottish Government introduced
the Help to Buy (Scotland) scheme which has aimed to support buyers
purchasing new build homes and to stimulate the housebuilding
industry.

In general, the number of starts will be a strong indicator of
the likely trend in completions over the longer term, but there may
well be differences over the short and medium term. These
differences depend on factors such as the housing market, economic
climate, access to finance, and speed of construction.

A wide range of factors can influence the length of time it
takes for a new private dwelling to be constructed, including the
type of property (house, flat etc.), and the overall size of the
site. Depending on the size of the site, the average time from
start to completion of the entire site can range from anywhere
between around 1.5 to 2.75 years. Individual homes, or blocks of
homes, might be completed in shorter timescales if parts of the
site are completed in advance of the rest.

After years of very few local authority new build housing
completions in Scotland the Scottish Government's introduction of
the Council House Building programme in 2009-10 has seen small but
significant numbers of new council houses being built. There were
1,138 local authority completions in 2015-16 - down by 2% compared
to 2014-15. There were 1,507 local authority starts in 2015-16, an
18% increase on the previous year.

There are relatively few local authority site completions in
recent years on which to base any firm conclusions of average
timescales between start and completion. However an average of
around 1 to 1.25 years for an entire site be completed seems to be
fairly typical, rising to around 2 to 2.5 years for some of the
bigger sites. Individual homes, or blocks of homes, might be
completed in shorter timescales if parts of the site are completed
in advance of the rest.

There were 2,320 Housing Association new build completions in
2015-16 - 24% fewer than in 2014-15, and the lowest annual figure
since 1999-00. There were 2,906 Housing Association new build
approvals in 2015-16, an increase of 10% on 2014-15. Whilst starts
totalled 2,881, an increase of 7%.

The map on the following page shows the rates of housing
completions in 2015-16 (across all tenures) relative to the
population size of each local authority in Scotland. The highest
rates were observed in Midlothian, Shetland, Aberdeenshire and
Orkney whilst the lowest rates were in Dundee City, Inverclyde,
South Ayrshire and East Renfrewshire.