The Presidential Election in Taiwan and 1992 Consensus

From around half of a year ago, I started watching the elections in Taiwan through TV shows and news. After such a period of time, I decided to write a review about the elections in Taiwan here. Today, only one day before the elections, I made up my mind to write the article and predict the result of the elections. This time, it is going to elect the president of ROC, the legislators and the legislators-at-large seats. In this article, I will focus on the election of the president.

The candidates are Ms. Tsai Ing-Wen(the Chair-woman of Democracy Progressive Party), Mr. Ma Ying-Jeou (the current President and the Chair-man of Nationalist Party), and Mr. James Soong Chu-Yu(the Chair-man of the People First Party). More than twenty years ago before the direct election of president, all of those three candidates served in the government of ROC. During the past 20 years, a lot of affairs happened among them, especially between Ma and Soong. In the year 2008, Soong supported Ma’s election because the similar cross-strait policy , but the relationship between them became worse for some reasons. Some suspected that was why Soong took part in the election this time. While Ms. Tsai was elected as the Chair-woman of DPP after the defeat in 2008’s presidency election. She was in charge of drafting the Special state-to-state relations doctrine of President Lee Teng-hui. People believed that she is a Taiwan-independence element due to her deny admitting the existence of 1992 Consensus.

Because of the special relationship between China mainland and Taiwan, the impact of China central government is always huge on the election of Taiwan, since the Taiwanese hate the pressure from Beijing. In 1996, PLA launched several field-to-field ballistic missiles to the targets near Taiwan to stop the success of Lee Teng-Hui in the election. Obviously, the strategy failed at last. In the next two elections, Beijing switched threat of power to announcements. Chen Shui-Bian, a DPP member successfully finished his two-terms of presidency. Due to the corruption of A-Bian’s administrative, DPP lost in the 2008 election, both in presidency and legislation. Ms. Tsai once was in charge of the cross-strait affairs as the Minister of Mainland Affair Council in A-Bian’s first term and was appointed Vice Premier under Premier Su Tseng-chang until the cabinet’s mass resignation in 2007. The intense cross-strait relationship was partly because Tsai’s insisted on Taiwan independence. Once A-Bian would like to admit 1992 Consensus but Tsai immediately denied in public on that day. From her speech in the debate, she is trying to use soft words on her stance. She also admit the meet of cross-strait in HK in 1992 and there was something she could take that could called anything but 1992 Consensus. Just a few days before the election, many entrepreneurs support 1992 Consensus in public because the benefits from ECFA, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between China mainland and Taiwan based on 1992 Consensus. In addition, Ma’s honesty won the support from thousands of scholars and scientists. The involvement of Tsai’s in TaiMed arouse the controversy, since some scientists, especially the biochemist support her role in the case.

The 1992 Consensus or Consensus of 1992 is a term describing the outcome of a meeting in HongKong in 1992 between the semi-official representatives of the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”) in mainland China and the Republic of China (“ROC”) in Taiwan. From the charts of the two political forms of government, there is only one China and it covers the mainland China and Taiwan. During a phone call between President Hu Jintao and Presient George W. Bush, Hu once talked about the 1992 Consensus, which sees both sides recognize there is only one China, but agree to differ on its definition. While DPP always said that there was no 1992 Consensus during the meeting and no such an agreement between two Communist Party and Nationalist Party. If the PRC government admitted the exist of the ROC on paper, that is to say there were two China in the world, which broke the one China principle the government obeys and the world admits. I have to say that Tsai is either fresh hand on political issues or trouble maker in the world.

Since Tsai and DPP tried to copy the Jasmine Revolution in North Africa or Occupied Wall Street in the campaign to call for the 99% to fight the 1%, she has to face the failure at last. Because most people in Taiwan want peace and prosperity in the coming four years, especially the threat of great depression or recession due to Europe and US. The ECFA will bridge the connection between China Mainland and Taiwan, and offer the Taiwanese opportunity to access the domestic market of China. But for 1992 Consensus, the ECFA could not be reached. Also, if Tsai took power and denied the 1992 Consensus, according to the last item of ECFA, the mainland China could stop the agreement at ease. That is not the threat as some DPP said, but the truth everyone should face.

At the end of the article, I would like to share in my viewpoints on the possible results of the campaign. I believe Ma would win with more than 50% of the vote. Soong may not win with only half a million votes.