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It’s a weak SEC, but they do have one Final Four contender in Florida. That combination makes the Gators overwhelming favorites. Behind them are bubble teams galore, with Kentucky as the most likely to unseat Florida, but they are without star Nerlens Noel.

Sd

Team

2nd Rd

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Florida

96.0

86.3

71.9

2

Kentucky

73.2

42.4

10.7

6

Missouri

86.1

48.6

25.7

6.3

3

Mississippi

48.7

21.9

4.9

5

Tennessee

87.5

54.0

8.2

3.1

7

Arkansas

70.9

22.3

8.8

1.4

4

Alabama

43.8

4.6

1.2

8

Georgia

43.9

2.3

0.8

0.3

11

Texas A&M

63.6

10.4

2.5

0.4

0.2

10

Vanderbilt

29.1

4.5

0.8

0.0

9

Louisiana State

56.1

1.7

0.1

0.0

12

South Carolina

64.1

9.9

1.9

0.0

0.0

13

Mississippi State

35.9

2.6

0.3

0.0

0.0

14

Auburn

36.4

3.5

0.2

0.0

0.0

As always, Kansas is the favorite, though the field is a better bet. Kansas State tied the Jayhawks for the regular season title but it’s the 3-seed Oklahoma State that has the best chance to knock off Kansas.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Kansas

89.5

65.4

44.3

3

Oklahoma State

59.9

40.8

19.4

2

Kansas State

72.9

31.1

11.2

6

Baylor

40.1

21.8

9.0

5

Iowa State

57.1

19.2

8.9

4

Oklahoma

42.9

12.2

5.1

7

Texas

85.8

26.1

6.2

1.4

8

West Virginia

79.7

10.0

3.0

0.7

9

Texas Tech

20.3

0.5

0.2

0.0

10

Texas Christian

14.2

1.0

0.1

0.0

In my update on potential Bid Stealers, the top two teams that could turn a 1-bid league into a 2-bid league were Middle Tennessee and Memphis. Well, Middle Tennessee already lost in the Sun Belt tournament, and while other bracketologists aren’t quite as high on their at-large chances as my system is, they do all agree that Memphis is a tournament lock regardless. The worse news for bubble teams is that the rest of the conference–led by 2-seed Southern Miss–provides enough competition to make it more likely than not that someone besides the Tigers wins the C-USA tournament.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Memphis

81.7

64.9

45.3

2

Southern Mississippi

77.7

53.1

26.4

3

Texas-El Paso

76.6

31.6

10.6

5

Tulsa

55.7

16.2

6.0

4

East Carolina

44.3

10.2

3.7

7

Alabama-Birmingham

64.5

16.9

8.2

3.5

8

Tulane

57.2

10.8

4.8

2.2

6

Houston

87.0

22.7

5.6

1.0

9

Marshall

42.8

7.5

3.9

0.8

10

Southern Methodist

35.5

5.4

1.5

0.5

11

Rice

13.0

0.7

0.0

0.0

The Pac-12 isn’t as bad as it has been, but it’s still not great. Arizona, despite their #4 seed, is the clear favorite. But the rest of top 5 plus 8-seed Stanford all have reasonable shots to take the auto bid.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

4

Arizona

74.2

54.2

41.4

3

Oregon

70.9

44.1

18.8

2

California

70.5

33.6

11.3

1

UCLA

55.3

19.5

10.2

5

Colorado

74.0

21.6

11.2

6.3

8

Stanford

60.3

30.9

10.4

5.7

6

Washington

53.8

15.7

7.5

2.0

11

Washington State

46.2

13.4

5.8

1.4

7

Southern California

64.1

22.4

7.6

1.3

9

Arizona State

39.7

13.8

3.3

1.1

12

Oregon State

26.0

4.2

1.4

0.5

10

Utah

35.9

7.1

1.4

0.0

A conference has to be pretty bad for the 220th-best team to be an 80% favorite. And, well, the SWAC is that bad. The only other team that could compete with Southern is Texas Southern and they are ineligible for the conference tourney. Of note is that even in a group of terrible teams, one teams stands out from the pack. Grambling is so bad this year that they are 96% likely to lose to the 6-seed and 339th-ranked (out of 347) team in the country, Alabama A&M. That’s impressive ineptitude.

Sd

Team

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Southern

89.1

80.0

2

Jackson State

56.3

32.5

6.8

6

Alabama A&M

96.0

10.8

4.2

3

Alcorn State

50.8

24.8

3.8

5

Alabama State

43.7

23.3

2.8

4

Prairie View

49.2

19.4

2.4

7

Grambling

4.0

0.1

0.0

The Southland tournament features one of the best low-major teams in Stephen F. Austin. They have a 62% chance to join the big dance, but Northwestern State and Oral Roberts could both stand in the Lumberjacks way.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Stephen F. Austin

89.6

62.0

2

Northwestern State

56.9

21.5

3

Oral Roberts

81.3

38.5

13.8

5

Nicholls State

64.4

41.5

5.3

1.5

4

Southeastern Louisiana

43.0

4.0

1.0

6

Sam Houston State

66.5

14.8

4.2

0.2

8

McNeese State

35.6

15.5

1.1

0.0

7

Central Arkansas

33.5

3.9

0.4

0.0

Next up: the final installment including the ACC, Big Ten, Atlantic 10, Big West, Great West, and Big Sky.