SPC AC 080814
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NM...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WRN
OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM WEST TX TO THE UPR MS VLY/GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY INVOLVED IN THE
DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE DAY 3 PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...PRESENTS A MORE CLASSIC AND PREDICTABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF
AGREEMENT AMONG A NUMBER OF MODELS THAT A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG
NRN PACIFIC UPPER JET...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WITH REMARKABLE SIMILARITY IN
LATEST GFS...NAM...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SERN NM AT 72H...11/00Z...FRIDAY
EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC
WHILE A DISTURBANCE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN IS FCST TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE ERN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.
...SERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND
DEEPENING LEE-LOW SHOULD BE MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
COMMENCE EARLY IN THE DAY BUT CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT TOO EARLY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION.
STRONGEST FORCING AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM/SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MDT RISK AREA. FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXIST ALONG POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN KS/NRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SFC LOW AND DRYLINE INFLECTIONS. IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.
...MO VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES....
QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG
TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WITH
SOME WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS MN INTO WI WHERE BOTH GFS
AND NAM DEPICT A POSSIBLE WAVE TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT.
..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005
...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z