I am a MA/MBA candidate at the Lauder Institute and the Wharton School of Business. I focus on Russian politics, economics, and demography but also write more generally about Eastern Europe. Please note that all opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone and that I do not speak in an official capacity for Lauder, Wharton, Forbes or any other organization.
I do my best to inject hard numbers (and flashy Excel charts) into conversations and debates that are too frequently driven by anecdotes. In addition to Forbes I've written for True/Slant, INOSMI, Salon, the National Interest, The Moscow Times, Russia Magazine, the Washington Post, and Quartz.
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The opening of the trial of a Russian female punk band for an unsanctioned performance in Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral in which they called on the Virgin Mary to drive away Putin is more than a travesty of justice. It is also an ominous hint that Putin now faces real political opposition in Russia, and may seek to defend himself with the help of a new authoritarian ideology…

As Russian observers have pointed out, they appealed to the Virgin, not to Satan, and although their song was unusual and not in keeping with the solemn setting, there was nothing about it that was prohibited. In fact, the message that the band was trying to convey was a fundamentally important one — that there is something anti-religious about the Russian Orthodox hierarchy’s subservience to Putin

This all sounds plausible enough. After all, it’s not hard to imagine why people would support the young, female rock musicians in their struggle against a brutal, corrupt, cynical, and increasing unpopular system. But what do Russians themselves think about Pussy Riot? Do they think their persecution is a “travesty of justice?” Do they see the young women of the punk rock art collective as blameless victims of a rapacious authoritarianism?

Well, thankfully, the Levada Center just released a new poll on Russians’ opinions of Pussy Riot, and it has some very interesting findings. First of all Russians do seem to genuinely think that the proposed punishment of anywhere between 2 and 7 years in prison is excessive and unfair. In July of 2012 only 33% of respondents said that this punishment was “adequate,” a figure significantly lower than the previous figures of 47% in April and 46% in March.

But thinking that punishment is “excessive” is very different from thinking that Pussy Riot shouldn’t be punished at all. What do Russians think should happen to the members of Pussy Riot? What do they think is appropriate punishment for the “punk prayer” that they delivered in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior? Well, the answer might disappoint you:

5%(!) of Russians think that the members of Pussy Riot don’t deserve any punishment at all. Five percent! The plurality of Russians apprently think that the appropriate punishment is forced labor. Forced labor! Does that sound like a society that is united in its support of the beleaguered punk rockers and that is greatly outraged over the Kremlin’s trampling on freedom of speech?

Now please don’t blame me for drawing attention to it, but doesn’t the information above seriously complicate the emerging narrative that the prosecution of Pussy Riot isn’t only a travesty of justice (it would seem quite obvious that it is a travesty of justice) but that it is deeply unpopular? Doesn’t the fact that Russians overwhelmingly support some kind of draconian punishment for the members of Pussy Riot do a lot to explain why the trial is, in fact, continuing?

Additionally, while it might seem plausible that the Orthodox Church has a PR nightmare on its hands, most Russians don’t appear to be particularly perturbed by its actions:

I personally find the Pussy Riot prosecution to be appalling and unjustifiable, but the world at large doesn’t appear particularly troubled about my personal opinion on this (or any other) issue. What really matters, what will determine the trial’s impact on Russia and its future development, is what Russians themselves think. And when you glance at the polling data, the Pussy Riot trial isn’t nearly as insane and self-defeating a decision as it might appear at first glance. Can Putin and his ilk overplay their hand? Absolutely. If they push for the maximum possible punishment, this could very easily blow up in their faces. But based on polling evidence, the court could force the members of Pussy Riot to do mandatory labor and the public would see this as a satisfying outcome.

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It is an *alternative to imprisonment*, a Russian form of community service, and this is well-known. This is what *native* speaker would understand from it. You’re pretty much stretching it if you think that a native speaker, living in Russia – and thus familiar with this form of punishment, which is commonly administered to light criminals – would somehow imagine it means a form of ‘breaking up big rocks into small ones’ hard labor. I am, of course, both a translator and a native speaker of Russian.

If your poll is to be believed, 74% of Russians do not want a severe punishment for Pussy Riot. Game. Set. Match.

You consider several months imprisonment for a exercising a constitutional right to be not a “severe punishment?” You really think it’s reasonable to expect people to spend six months in jail for a song?

The obvious, glaring, truth is that the Pussy Riot members don’t deserve any punishment whatsoever. Churches aren’t magical non-free-speech zones where somehow constitutional rights disappear. Only 5% of Russians said that Pussy Riot shouldn’t be punished. 5%! I find that to be absolutely terrifying, and pretty strong evidence that Russian society still holds rather reactionary and backwards views related to free speech and political rights. You think that it’s progressive to fine people for speaking? Or to make people pick up trash because they had the temerity to sing a stupid song?

is in just me, or you’re starting to sound a bit like Kim Ziegfeld with her “backward, barbarous russians”? If 95% feel insulted by “Pussy Riot” so-called ‘punk prayer’, isn’t it an abuse of the right of free speech? Maybe it’s not like yelling “Fire” in a crouded theater, but surely something akin to yelling obscenities in a middle of some official ceremony or, even worse, in a courtyard between residential buildings at 2 AM.

And their “song” _did_ contain obscenities. You should find the exact wording of PussiRiot “masterpiece”. Unless, of course, you consider words like “God’s sh*t” proper and suitable for a public place…

That said, I too believe they should get some punishment. Maybe not the maximum of 7 years in prison, but Pussy Riot surely must NOT feel they got off easily. Really don’t want them or their followers to repeat their “performance”.

Free speech is free speech. Unless Pussy Riot’s speech caused some sort of proximate physical harm (i.e. the famous yelling fire in a theater example) there isn’t even an argument. If people feel the need to lock up people because they sung a crappy “song,” they need to grow thicker skin.

The urge to put someone in prison because there words were “uncomfortable” is, in fact, a primitive and barbaric one. In fact it’s one of the best examples of barbarism I can think of. I am capable of recognizing that an opinion (“Pussy Riot needs to be punished!”) is both widespread in Russian society AND wrong at a very fundamental level.

Again, I fully understand WHY the authorities are moving ahead with this trial (it very much plays to the sorts of social divisions they’re trying to emphasize) but I still think it’s a pretty awful thing to do.

you cling to the sacred totem of free speech so much, that you seem to deliberately ignore the bigger picture. The problem of Pussy Riot is not – NOT! – their singing, not their political messages. They were performing for half a year by 21th of February. And they never were really harassed for their “concerts”. But the performance in Cathedral of Christ the Savior had created an outrage, because PR invaded a space sacred for so many, disturbed the peace in a very specian place, place dear for Ortodox Christians – and planned all that ahead! Just look at all that equipment they brought, clothes, a platoon of journalists, bloggers, photographers they brought. That was not some drunk lout to barge in a church, that was a cold, deliberate, calculated slap-in-a-face-of society. Aggravated, mind you, by a considerable list of previous infractions. Do I really need to remind you about N. Tolokonnikova, the face of PR, who participated in public orgy in Darvin museum? Being heavily pregnant, just a few days before giving birth? That’s the most glaring one, but not the only. That’s why russian society in general feels wronged, that’s why there is a demand for punishment. One harsh enough to ensure, that THIS WON’T HAPPEN _AGAIN_. Yes, maybe an imprisonment is not suitable here. But the aim of prosecution is not specifically to send these punks in jail. Lots of people would be content to see them stripped of Russian citizenship, sent out of the country and banned to return.

There is a saying in Russia “If you spit at community, community will wipe it off. But if community spits at you, you’ll drown” (Если ты плюнешь в коллектив, коллектив утрётся. Но если коллектив плюнет в тебя, ты утонешь”.) So Pussy Riotees are now drowning.

Mark, Thanks for your article. I live in Russia, and I’m one of these 5% who think that girls do not deserve any punishment at all. But Putin is playing a religion card now to protect himself.

So what do you think wouldhappen in Europe or USA if they got a bad manager, but in the similiar situation the manager will play the same religion card? I bet at least in Poland people would punish these girls (however I like Poland very much, they did unbelievable progress since USSR times, and Russia did not)