000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS