Additional resources

15.01.2015 - ​US retail sales have unexpectedly fallen

The price
of euro continued its downward movement yesterday against the background of the
decision by the European Court, according to which the ECB will be able to buy
the assets to support the growth of the regional economy and to combat low
inflation. At the same time, the fall was restrained by weak data on retail
sales in the US, which in December fell by 0.9%, compared with an expected
growth of 0.2%. Analysts had expected that people will spend more due to the
reduction in fuel costs, but consumers have decided to increase savings.
Overall, in 2014, retail sales rose by 4%. Today is worth paying attention to
the statistics on the trade balance of the Eurozone (10:00 GMT), the Producer
Price Index in the US and data on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). Our
medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions
on the euro.

The price
of the British pound rose sharply yesterday amid a weakening US dollar after
the release of weak statistics on retail sales in the United States. At the
same time, further growth of quotations is limited by drop in the index of
leading economic indicators of Great Britain by 0.3% in November. The price of
homes in the UK increased by 11% compared to the same period of last year,
which coincided with analysts' expectations. Until the end of the week the
dynamics of prices of the British pound will depend on the data from the US and
euro movement. We are waiting for confirmation of the signal for the opening
short-term long positions, but maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the
pound.

The
Japanese yen resumed its decline against the US dollar amid falling retail
sales in the United States, which has led to a weakening of the dollar. The
producer price index in Japan in December was 1.9%, which is 0.3% less than the
forecast. Domestic orders for engineering products in Japan in November rose by
1.3%, which is 3.5% worse than the forecast. Demand for yen is still supported
by investors' concerns about the political crisis in Greece, as well as a
slowdown in the world economy as a whole. We recall that the World Bank has
reduced the forecast for global GDP growth to 3.0% in 2015, which is 0.4% less
than the previous forecast. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the
yen, but we can see its strengthening until the end of the month.

The
Australian dollar has shown a steady growth after the data on the labor market
in Australia. Thus, the number of employees increased by 37.4 thousand in
December, compared with an expected growth of 5.3 thousand. At the same time,
the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 6.1%. The falling US dollar has also
supported the growth of quotations. Improvement in the labor market reduces the
potential fall of the Australian currency, but we continue to maintain a
medium-term negative outlook.

The New
Zealand dollar has stabilized above 0.77 after US retail sales fell led to a
decline of the US dollar. At the same time, the data on lending in China showed
a slowdown in the credit market to 697 billion, against the expected 855
billion. The fall of the New Zealand currency is likely to continue in the near
future and in the medium term against the strengthening of the US dollar and
the weak statistics on the trade balance of the country.

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RISK WARNING: Trading of complex financial products, such as Stocks, Futures, Foreign Exchange (‘Forex’), Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’), Indices, Options, or other financial derivatives, on ‘margin’ carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any of these markets you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading these markets, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any questions or doubts. Please carefully read our full ‘Risk Disclosure’ and ‘Risk Disclosures for Financial Instruments & Investment Services’

LEGAL: ‘fxfinpro.com’ is a domain owned and operated by ‘PFX Financial Professionals Limited’, a limited liability company formed under the laws of Cyprus, registered with the Registrar of Companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, under nr. HE 237840, having its principal place of business at 82 Nikou and Despina Pattichi Avenue, Maritania Court, Office 101, Kato Polemedia, 3070 Limassol, Cyprus. ‘PFX Financial Professionals Limited’ is regulated as a Cyprus Investment Firm (‘CIF’) by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (‘CySEC’) under license number 193/13. ‘PFX Financial Professionals Limited’ operates in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (‘MiFID’) of the European UnionRESTRICTED REGIONS: PFX Financial Professionals Limited does not provide services to citizens of the USA, Canada, Japan, Belgium, North Korea, or Iran

RISK WARNING: Trading of complex financial products, such as Stocks, Futures, Foreign Exchange ("Forex"), Contracts for Difference ("CFDs"), Indices, Options, or other financial derivatives, on "margin" carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading these markets, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any questions or doubts. Please carefully read our full "Risk Disclosure" and "Risk Disclosures for Financial Instruments & Investment Services". FXFINPRO Capital is the trading name of PFX Financial Professionals Limited, a limited liability company formed under the laws of Cyprus, registered with the Registrar of Companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, under nr. HE 237840 and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 193/13.