For Bush, N.H. is make-or-break

Presidential primary voting has barely begun but already former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is facing a breaking point for his campaign.

After Bush finished sixth in the Iowa caucuses last week, one top supporter said his candidacy is “toast” if he does not place high and beat his main competition for the GOP establishment vote — Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — in New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday. Longtime Bush family confidant Karl Rove, the architect of former President George W. Bush’s two successful campaigns, offered a similar assessment during a visit to Sarasota last week.

“He does have to show in New Hampshire ­— no ifs, ands or buts,” Rove said.

And so it has come to this: Bush — a giant of Florida politics who helped spark two decades of GOP dominance in state government, launched conservative reforms that are still reverberating today and established himself as a leading Republican voice nationwide — is fighting for his political life in a state where the Real Clear Politics average of polls currently shows him as an underdog behind billionaire Donald Trump, Rubio, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

People stand and cheer during a speech by Republican presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at a campaign stop before next weeks first in the nation presidential primary Saturday, Feb. 6, 2016, in Bedford, N.H. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

It’s a strange and unsettling scenario for Bush supporters who have known the former governor for decades and have a hard time understanding the public image of him that has taken root during the campaign.

“There are a lot of people who are surprised, self-doubting. What did we do wrong?” said Tramm Hudson, the former Sarasota County GOP chair who is volunteering for Bush’s campaign, before adding that he thinks the candidate’s struggles have more to do with “the mood of the country” and that there is still time for him to recover.

In Hudson’s mind, Bush is the principled conservative who ended affirmative action at Florida universities, cut taxes, reformed the education system and was so devoted to the job he sent emails at all hours of the day and night.

Bush’s record, extensive political network and pedigree made him the early favorite in the race. But he has proven to be an awkward candidate at times and his ambitions have run into a brick wall emblazoned with the name Trump.

The business mogul’s description of Bush as a “low-energy” candidate stuck. Even more important has been Trump’s ability to channel the anger and frustrations of average voters, something Bush has struggled with.

Supporters say Bush’s intelligence, judgement and policy chops would make him a better president than anyone in the field. But those are intellectual arguments and many believe this election is more about gut feelings.

The candidate’s emphasis on his eight years as governor also doesn’t seem to be resonating, and he struggled for months with how to address his family legacy and concerns about another Bush presidency.

Florida Gulf Coast University political science professor Peter Bergerson was among those who thought Bush’s record in Florida would give him an advantage. The former governor left office with high approval ratings after deftly handling the response to eight hurricanes.

He was generally well regarded by conservatives for pushing to cut taxes, privatize government services, bring school vouchers to the state and enact a range of other reforms.

But that was nearly a decade ago, a lifetime in politics.

“One of the big surprises to me is how poorly Bush has been able to catch on,” Bergerson said. “Maybe it’s because the Republican Party is looking to the future and Bush is a symbol of the past.”

Additionally, the GOP is undergoing an “ideological transformation,” Bergerson said. It has left Bush, once viewed as a staunch conservative, looking more moderate.

The perception of Bush as a moderate could help him in New Hampshire, were GOP voters tend to be less sharply partisan.

“He’s doing better in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa in the polls,” Rove noted. “I suspect that’s reflective of the fact New Hampshire is significantly less dominated by social conservatives and more reflective of the party as a whole.”

Bush’s struggles have been difficult to watch for his supporters, many of whom remember him as a dominating figure during his time as governor.

U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, led the Florida Chamber of Commerce during part of Bush’s tenure in Tallahassee. The two worked closely on many issues important to the business community.

“I thought he was a great governor,” Buchanan said. “I’m surprised with where he’s at” in the presidential race.

The response to two fundraisers Bush held in the Sarasota region illustrate the candidate’s change of fortune. The first event held in early 2015 was “easy money,” Hudson said. Bush seemed like the clear front-runner and people were eager to support his campaign.

It was much more difficult to pry donations from people at a follow-up event in November at Buchanan’s Gulf-front mansion.

Despite the diminished odds of Bush now claiming the nomination, long-time allies such as Hudson and Buchanan remain optimistic.

“He’s right there in the mix” in New Hampshire, Buchanan said. “We’ll see what happens this week.”

Bush’s campaign is planning ahead to South Carolina’s Feb. 20 primary and beyond. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who has endorsed Bush and is campaigning aggressively for him, told the New York Times last week that candidate is “toast” if he doesn’t do well in New Hampshire. But Graham’s political network could be a big asset for Bush in South Carolina if he survives New Hampshire, and the Bush family has done well there in the past.

Hudson will travel to Greenville, South Carolina, on Feb. 17 to volunteer for the campaign. He expects Bush to do well in New Hampshire, setting him up for a marathon nomination fight.

The candidate seems to have found his footing recently, projecting more confidence and ease at town halls and debates. And New Hampshire has revived struggling campaigns before, most recently U.S. Sen. John McCain’s presidential bid in 2008.

“It’s the reset,” Hudson said.

Last modified: February 7, 2016
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