000
FXUS64 KLUB 021738
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTEREDCONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KLBB AND KPVW...WITH THE LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KCDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION...NO EXPLICIT MENTION WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS
ATTM...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORM INFLUENCES MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A RISK OF LOW CLOUDS/BR BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNALCONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.
ONSET OF A NOCTURNALLOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 90 66 94 / 30 30 20 10
TULIA 65 91 68 94 / 40 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 67 92 69 95 / 40 40 20 10
LEVELLAND 67 94 69 96 / 30 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 70 93 71 96 / 30 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 95 69 97 / 20 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 95 70 97 / 20 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 94 73 98 / 40 30 30 20
SPUR 69 95 72 98 / 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 71 97 75 99 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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