Production Machining

JAN 2018

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53.5
MICHAEL GUCKES, MBA
Chief Economist, Gardner Intelligence
Michael has performed economic
analysis, modeling and forecasting
work for almost 20 years among a
range of industries. Michael received
his B.A. in political science and
economics from Kenyon College
and his MBA from The Ohio State
University.
mguckes@gardner web.com
November Index Shows
Expansion at Slower Rate
Supplier deliveries experienced slightly faster growth.
60
55
50
45
40
PRECISION MACHINING INDEX
60
55
50
45
40
35
PRECISION MACHINING NEW ORDERS AND PRODUCTION (3-month moving average)
The November readings of
the Precision Machining Index
indicated a significant slowing of
the industry's growth rate. Index
readings from the 2017 calendar
year have been volatile, however,
with an average monthly reading
of 55.5, the industry has grown
strongly during the calendar year.
The latest figures for new orders and
production fell below their year-to-
date average readings of 58.7 and
59.5, respectively. Significant swings
in the monthly readings during 2017
have resulted in a year of strong yet
volatile growth.
n Production
n New Orders
54.3
7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17
7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17
GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX: PRECISION MACHINING
10 PRODUCTION MACHINING :: JANUARY 2018
R
egistering 54.3 for November, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Precision
Machining moved lower after two months of strong expansionary gains. For the
year-to-date period, the index has averaged 55.5 and increased by approximately
1 percent in 2017. Gardner Intelligence's review of the underlying data indicates
that supplier delivery production and new orders lifted the business index higher,
while employment, backlog and exports pulled the index lower. For November, only
exports contracted slightly after having expanded in September and October. All
components of the index moved lower in November except for supplier deliveries,
which recorded slightly faster growth as compared with the prior month.
November saw slower growth in new orders and production as compared with October's
figures. Although the latest figures are below their year-to-date averages, they are well
above the average readings from 2015 and 2016 and compare favorably with the strong
readings of 2014 when the Precision Machining Index experienced solid cyclical growth. In
the three-month period from the beginning of September to the end of November, backlog
has drastically transitioned from record high growth to being almost flat. For the calendar
year, backlog has experienced volatile expansion with only one month of contraction
during that time.
Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence.
More information about the Precision Machining Index can be found at gardnerintelligence.com.