In a published note, Citigroup analyst Timothy Arcuri said that insight gleaned from the first day of a trade show seemed to suggest the sector has hit a “cyclical top.”

“Supply chain checks suggest most tool vendors have scaled back order or shipment forecasts for the calendar fourth-quarter by about 10 percent in the past few weeks,” Arcuri wrote in the note.

Of course equipment orders are not going to continue to be up 60 percent year/year, as they have been for the last three months. With end demand for semiconductors rising at a single-digit rate there is only so much manufacturing equipment they need. We said the same thing yesterday and didn’t have to travel to San Francisco and spend hours hobnobbing with management to figure it out. The supply chain doesn’t have to be checked - it publishes its sales figures every month for Pete’s sake. Oh, we also said it last week. And a month ago. And the month before that. In other words, back when you could have saved yourself some money by not buying, or made some by selling short.