All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

I first mentioned the possibility of a system in this time frame almost 5 days ago. Sorry to say, but I anticipate this to bring quite the warmup ahead of it. Also may be some severe weather depending on moisture content in the warm sector.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM)

Major system in east Asia around the 8th. Large trough dips down from Siberia into Mongolia then pushes east and deepens. This would correlate roughly to February 15. We're starting to get closer to the warm season, so there may be some severe weather ahead of the system. What I expect to happen is a trough will dip down from Canada into the western US, modestly pump up heights in the east, then push east.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 7 2018, 11:56 PM)

Regarding the storm on the 15th... GFS has trended toward higher heights over Korea/Japan. Over in the US, it has a strong southern ridge but has the western ridge persisting, so the system comes in within northwest flow. I'm expecting this system to dip down into the west US before coming east.

TR foretold the pattern to start February when the long-range models were showing a torch, so I'm fairly confident in this. The pieces are there.

12z GFS is a little slower (Feb 16-18). Stronger and northwest would please about all of us. Good moisture for parts of this as it lays down frozen from Texas to Oklahoma to Arkansas and generally just north of due east from there:

Coming from someone who hasn't seen any significant snow in Oklahoma for a few years now, I would take this in a heartbeat. Give me 3-4 inches and I will be content until next winter. This does have a different setup than the last 10 storms this winter that leave Northeast Oklahoma high and dry. So here's to hoping this is the one that breaks this slump.

So bummed out this year. Figured with the pattern we were expecting to see, this would be an active year, but every system has missed north or south of me. Feeling really bad for the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri/Illinois peeps.

Oh man. Hey STL, I’ll be in Canaan Valley in this time frame. Either stuck in ice or rain and yuck. This is problematic.

Long ways to go with this one, who knows how problematic it may or may not be.

I think it goes without saying that we all prefer snowier solutions, but we can't all get snow with the same storm.

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

My favorite long range graphic is the GEFS mean total QPF. Three things worth mentioning based on this graphic.

1) plenty of storminess/QPF to go around

2) Despite plenty of warm/moist air in the forecast there hasn't been a lack of cold air this winter so I'd expect each system to have at least some wintry potential

3) the NW gradient is always the place to watch for wintry potential

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 9 2018, 03:18 PM

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win