AA and AAA

I think there needs to be a discussion about what these two levels are and what they mean for the Twins organization.
How many success stories have the been from AA-MLB promotions in the past 10-15-20 years?
This is an important discussion because it affects our analysis of minor league promotions and of development in general.
From what I gather from some people here is that AA is the true prospect ground an AAA is leftovers and retreads.
That seems ridiculous to me, but I want to be educated either way about this.

There has been a growing trend to make AA the jumping point for MLB, but it hasn't completely replaced AAA yet. Harper played in AAA this season before going up, although only for a few weeks (like Dozier, but with different results). Pitchers will almost always stop there first.
AAA seems to be composed of 3 groups of players: 1) true prospects, although position players tend not to stay there long; 2) AAAA players, who are needed on the 40-man roster to provide injury coverage and need a place to play in the interim; 3) career minor leaguers, who will never play in MLB but are needed to make the AAA teams competitive (which is not unimportant for those who own those teams).
Personally I would like to see AAA become more of a proving ground for prospects - if they can't succeed against AAAA players, then they aren't ready to play in MLB.

Some notable Twins that skipped AAA:
John Castino (Rookie of the Year 1979) played AA in 1978, called up to the majors for next season
Kent Hrbek, played in single A Visalia for a full season in 1981, then started 1982 with the Twins and stayed for good.
Gary Gaetti, Played a full season at AA in 1981, joined Hrbek in 1982 with the Twins in 1982
Christian Guzman, went from AA in 1998 to the majors in 1999.
Chuck Knoblauch, (rookie of the year) a full season at AA in 1990 then starting 2b with the Twins in 1991 at the age of 21.
Joe Mauer, split 2003 with High A and AA, in the majors since (not including rehab stints)
Pat Mears, played just 18 games at AAA before being called up for good in 1993
Paul Molitor, never played above single A in the minors - came up in 1978 with Milwaukee (did play for Twins' AAA affiliate in Salt Lake for a rehab assignment in 1996)
Kirby Puckett, skipped AA and only played 21 games at AAA before being called up for good in 1984
Pitchers:
Brad Radke, full season at AA in 1994, then Majors for good
Johan Santana, jumped from A (rule V pick) in 2000, did spend a good chunk of 2002 at AAA
Eric Milton, AA with the Yankees in 1997 - with the Twins in 1998
Kyle Lohse went from AA to AAA to the Majors in 2001 most games were with the Twins, fewest were in AAA
Scott Erickson, AA in 1990, to the Twins in 1991
Notables that did not skip AAA:
Morneau, Koskie, Hunter, Marty Cordova (rookie of the year 1995), Brian Harper, Brunansky (AAA with the Angels), AJ Pierzynski, Span, Delmon Young - Pitchers: Blyleven (7 starts in AAA in 1970, skipped AA), Viola (half of 1982 in AAA), Liriano (14 starts in AAA in 2005), Aguilera (AAA with Mets in 85 for half season), Baker, Tapani, Joe Nathan, Blackburn, Matt Garza (only 21 starts at AAA over two seasons)

pitchers definately still need to use AAA to refine....for the most part.
Hitters do get called up from AA more frequently....most of those will eventually need more time, but not much more.
Look at BDozier/Parmelee...this is how teams view players & AAA now....few ABs is all they need.
I did a post a few wks back showing how many teams stack their rosters with the AAAA types & everyone does it. These arent the prospects anymore (not pitchers).

Plouffe was a little bit of a late bloomer....esp w/power.
Parmellee/Benson/Dozier/Valencia/Revere all had very little or no AAA time before their debut
This year we'll see Hicks/Hermann/Arcia in Sept straight up from AA also.

three-a is filled with prospects at the beginning of the year but, by the time the all star season comes around, all those guys are in the majors. look at anthony rizzo as an e.g. the twins have promoted everyone worth giving a shot to from rochester already so the leftovers are going to be the minor league free agent types.

Plouffe was a little bit of a late bloomer....esp w/power.
Parmellee/Benson/Dozier/Valencia/Revere all had very little or no AAA time before their debut
This year we'll see Hicks/Hermann/Arcia in Sept straight up from AA also.

I would be willing to bet theres 0 chance Arcia is promoted to the Twins this September. And its nearly as unlikely that Aaron Hicks will be promoted this year as well

Valencia had something like 300 AAA plate appearances before making his debut, he was also 25 or 26 years old. Arcia wont even have that many AA plate appearances by September, and just turned 21.

I would be willing to bet theres 0 chance Arcia is promoted to the Twins this September. And its nearly as unlikely that Aaron Hicks will be promoted this year as well

Valencia had something like 300 AAA plate appearances before making his debut, he was also 25 or 26 years old. Arcia wont even have that many AA plate appearances by September, and just turned 21.

The difference between Valencia and Arcia was that Valencia wasn't on the 40-man and Arcia already is. So despite being much younger, I think there is a pretty good chance Arcia comes up after his season is done.

Hicks needs to be added to the 40-man this offseason, so adding him in September wouldn't require much extra roster maneuvering as it wouldn't burn up an option year anyway.

I would like to see both come up just to see what the big leagues really is... get the nerves and adjustments out during games that aren't as important.

John Castino (Rookie of the Year 1979) played AA in 1978, called up to the majors for next season
Kent Hrbek, played in single A Visalia for a full season in 1981, then started 1982 with the Twins and stayed for good.
Gary Gaetti, Played a full season at AA in 1981, joined Hrbek in 1982 with the Twins in 1982
Christian Guzman, went from AA in 1998 to the majors in 1999.
Chuck Knoblauch, (rookie of the year) a full season at AA in 1990 then starting 2b with the Twins in 1991 at the age of 21.
Joe Mauer, split 2003 with High A and AA, in the majors since (not including rehab stints)
Pat Mears, played just 18 games at AAA before being called up for good in 1993
Paul Molitor, never played above single A in the minors - came up in 1978 with Milwaukee (did play for Twins' AAA affiliate in Salt Lake for a rehab assignment in 1996)
Kirby Puckett, skipped AA and only played 21 games at AAA before being called up for good in 1984

Pitchers:
Brad Radke, full season at AA in 1994, then Majors for good
Johan Santana, jumped from A (rule V pick) in 2000, did spend a good chunk of 2002 at AAA
Eric Milton, AA with the Yankees in 1997 - with the Twins in 1998
Kyle Lohse went from AA to AAA to the Majors in 2001 most games were with the Twins, fewest were in AAA
Scott Erickson, AA in 1990, to the Twins in 1991

Historically, most really good players are ready for major league competition early on. Middle-of-the-pack players often benefit from longer development and a stint at AAA.
AAA used to be stocked with just those middle-of-the-pack prospects and a few washed-up or soon-to-be washed-up vets. AAA was the very definition of replacement level talent. Not sure how much has changed though fewer vets seem to stock the AAA teams (maybe due to higher earning levels) nowadays. There is, usually, nothing to be learned at AAA for players destined to star. What they need to learn can only be got at the major league level.
I'm not sure about other teams but we don't see a lot of players jumping to the majors from A an AA with the Twins any longer. Maybe its a philosophy or maybe it is merely a reflection of the talent in the organization. Either way I don't think it is a good sign.

The difference between Valencia and Arcia was that Valencia wasn't on the 40-man and Arcia already is. So despite being much younger, I think there is a pretty good chance Arcia comes up after his season is done.

Hicks needs to be added to the 40-man this offseason, so adding him in September wouldn't require much extra roster maneuvering as it wouldn't burn up an option year anyway.

I would like to see both come up just to see what the big leagues really is... get the nerves and adjustments out during games that aren't as important.

Valencia was called up in June because they needed him to play 3rd base. I have never seen Arcia play, but I highly doubt they will want to rush him along and start his service clock in meaningless September games. Again, he will have very few AA plate appearances under his belt. Unless he starts dominating there, still saying 0 chance.

There is a jump IMO between the levels. It is a small jump, probably the closest of all the levels. AAA is filled with players on the verge of being MLB players. Some are putting in their time until they get called up, some are stuck there, and some are organizational fillers. Like has been said, AAA is for refining or working on a specific skill for players.

Valencia was called up in June because they needed him to play 3rd base. I have never seen Arcia play, but I highly doubt they will want to rush him along and start his service clock in meaningless September games. Again, he will have very few AA plate appearances under his belt. Unless he starts dominating there, still saying 0 chance.

Comparing Valencia to Arcia is apples and oranges. Valencia wasn't a September call-up because he wasn't on the 40-man roster.

A better comp would be Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee in 2011 - both in their first option years. They were brought up straight from New Britain. I doubt service time in those cases - or in Arcia's potential case - really mattered. Those 23 days in the case of Parmelee and Benson meant nothing since they both started this year in the minors.

Arcia is a more advanced hitter than either of those guys as well.

I'll put the chances of Arcia getting a post-AA season call-up at 60%. And put the over/under on MLB plate appearances at 55.

Comparing Valencia to Arcia is apples and oranges. Valencia wasn't a September call-up because he wasn't on the 40-man roster.

A better comp would be Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee in 2011 - both in their first option years. They were brought up straight from New Britain. I doubt service time in those cases - or in Arcia's potential case - really mattered. Those 23 days in the case of Parmelee and Benson meant nothing since they both started this year in the minors.

Arcia is a more advanced hitter than either of those guys as well.

I'll put the chances of Arcia getting a post-AA season call-up at 60%. And put the over/under on MLB plate appearances at 55.

We will see how it pans out, agree to disagree.

BTW, Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee had each played more than 210 games in AA before getting called up. They were also both 23 at the time.

So the question now is: is there value in promoting quicker out of AA to AAA to get at bats there instead of at the lower level. I can't believe that Revere's time spent in AAA didn't help him become the batter he is today. Wouldn't Parmelee benefit from at least a few hundred plate appearances there?

So the question now is: is there value in promoting quicker out of AA to AAA to get at bats there instead of at the lower level. I can't believe that Revere's time spent in AAA didn't help him become the batter he is today. Wouldn't Parmelee benefit from at least a few hundred plate appearances there?

Parmalee would benefit best by playing every day, and quite frankly I doubt anyone cares whether that's in AA, AAA, or MLB. I seem to remember reading a while back that the Twins did consider AAA to be development grounds. It's certainly a step that the Twins, or other teams for that matter, are willing to skip, but plenty of good prospects have spent time there and plenty more will continue to do so. A lot of that has to do with the fact that

1) the jump is not that big from AA to AAA and
2) there's an obvious need at the club, and the guy occupying the spot in AAA isn't the solution.

I have no doubt that the Twins would have been happy to give more development time to any of their AA guys as opposed to calling them up, but the circumstances dictated otherwise.

Also of note, I would not compare September callups to skipping AAA, especially since many end back up in AAA the next year. September callups follow a different pattern:

1) the guy is on the 40 man or is pretty much a lock to make it next season.
2) the team is largely out of it and wants to get a look at the kid in a lower pressure situation against advanced players or the team is in it and wants the kid to fill a niche role such as a pinch runner or hard thrower out of the pen.