Reshaping the US energy economy: part 2

Oil and oil products

The Brent crude oil spot price is expected to decline from US$ 112 /bbl in 2012 to US$ 92 /bbl in 2017. After this period, the price is predicted to increase to US$ 141/bbl in 2040 due to growing demand that requires the development of more costly resources. World liquids consumption grows from 89 million bpd in 2012 to 117 million bpd in 2040. This is expected to be driven by growing demand in China, Brazil, India and other developing economies.

Domestic crude oil production is expected to rise to 9.5 million in 2016, the net import share of US petroleum and other liquids supply will fall to approximately 25%. After 2019, a decline in domestic crude production is expected by the AEO2014 reference case. The import share of total petroleum and other liquids supply is expected to grow to 32% in 2040, still lower than the 2040 level of 37% in the AEO last year.

Energy use

AEO2014 predicts total US primary energy consumption to increase by 12% between 2012 and 2040. Fossil fuels will take up 82% of energy demand in 2012 and 80% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum based liquid fuels decreases, largely as a result of slower growth in LDV VMT and increased vehicle efficiency.

Between 2012 and 2040, energy use per capita is expected to decline by 8% as a result of improving energy efficiency and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy.

Emissions

To 2040, AEO2014 expects total US energy related CO2 emissions to remain below the 2005 levels, when they reach 5.6 billion t. CO2 emissions per 305 dollar of GDP decline more rapidly than energy use per dollar, to 56% below their 2005 level in 2040, as lower carbon fuels account for a growing share of total energy use.