The three basic concerns

Population Growth

Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other regions in its demographic
transition. The total fertility rate (TFR)the total number of children
the average woman has in a lifetimefor SSA as a whole has remained at
about 6.5 for the past twenty-five years, while it has declined to about 4 in
all developing countries taken together. As life expectancy in SubSaharan Africa
has risen from an average of forty-three years in 1965 to fifty-one years at
present, population growth has accelerated from an average of 2.7 percent per
annum for 1965-1980 to about 3.0 percent per year at present. Recent surveys
appear to signal, however, that several countriesnotably, Botswana,
Kenya, and Zimbabweare at a critical demographic turning point. This
study discusses the factors that have contributed to the beginning of the
demographic transition in these countries.

Agricultural Performance

Agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa increased at about
2.0 percent per annum between 1965 and 1980 and at about 1.8 percent annually
during the 1980s (Table A-9). Average per capita food production has declined in
many countries, per capita calorie consumption has stagnated at very low levels,
and roughly 100 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure. Food
imports increased by about 185 percent between 1974 and 1990, food aid by 295
percent But the food gap (requirements minus production)filled by food
imports, or by many people going with less then whet they needhas been
widening The average African consumes only about 87 percent of the calories
needed for a healthy and productive life (Table A-10). But as with population
growth, a few African countries are doing much better, with agricultural growth
rates in the 3.0 to 4.5 percent per annum range in recent years (Nigeria,
Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, and Benin). The policies of these
countries help show the way forward.

Environmental Degradation

Sub-Saharan Africa's forest cover, estimated at 679 million ha in
1980, has been diminishing at a rate of about 2.9 million ha per annum, and the
rate of deforestation has been increasing (Table A-19). As much as half of SSA's
farmland is affected by soil degradation and erosion, and up to 80 percent of
its pasture and range areas show signs of degradation Degraded soils lose their
fertility and water absorption and retention capacity, with adverse effects on
vegetative growth. Deforestation has significant negative effects on local and
regional rainfall and hydrological systems. The widespread destruction of
vegetative cover has been a major factor in prolonging the period of below
long-term average rainfall in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s. It also is a
major cause of the rapid increase in the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2)
and nitrous oxide (N2O), two greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere Massive biomass
burning in Sub-Saharan Africa (savanna burning and slash-and-burn farming)
contributes vest quantities of CO: and other trace gases to the global
atmosphere. Acid deposition is higher in the Congo Basin and in Côte d'Ivoire
than in the Amazon or in the eastern United States and is largely caused by
direct emissions from biomass burning and by subsequent photochemical reactions
in the resulting smoke and gas plumes. Tropical forests are considerably more
sensitive than temperate forests to foliar damage from acid rain. Soil fertility
is reduced through progressive acidification. Acid deposition also poses a
serious risk to amphibians and insects that have aquatic fife cycle stages; the
risk extends further to plants that depend on such insects for pollination.

Unlike the situation of population growth and agriculture, there
are few environmental success stories in Africa, although there remain large
parts of Central Africa that are little touched In looking closely, however,
places can be found, such as Machakos District in Kenya, where environmental
improvements have occurred along with rapidly expanding population. Good
agricultural and economic policy, and investment in social services and
infrastructure, are found to be the critical ingredients to such success
(English and others 1993; Tiffen and others 1994) These positive experiences
form the empirical basis for an action program to overcome the downward spiral
elsewhere, which is discussed
below.