Was Manning’s velocity waning even before the injury?

Today's article from Albert Breer may give Broncos fans pause. Breer suggests that the velocity on Peyton Manning's throws was already in decline during 2010--before his neck injury. Breer writes:

"The fall-off was significant on film," said one scout from a rival AFC team. "He showed stiffness and lost athletic traits. What made him special was never his athletic ability or movement skills, but you could see it with his arm strength, too. We break the field into 'short', 'intermediate' and 'deep', and on patterns deep and outside the numbers, you'd notice more air under the ball. There'd be more arc. Some it's by design, placing the ball where it needs to be. But it looked like his velocity was tailing off at the end of 2010. That's probably what he's most worried about. His rotation was fine, his accuracy was fine. But as far as the ball getting from Point A to Point B, and how much time he was giving defensive backs to drive on the football, there was enough there for concern."

The questions about Manning's arm strength go all the way back to the day he was drafted (Ryan Leaf had a stronger arm, after all). However, was it possible that in 2010, Manning had lost too much zip on his passes? The statistics certainly suggest as much. His Y/A, AY/A, NY/A, and ANY/A were all down by a full yard. At the same time, guys like Blair White, Pierre Garcon (which I believe means "dropped pass" in French), and Austin Collie weren't helping Manning's cause. And we saw what happened to the Colts in 2011 without Manning: they went down like they'd been shot by a sniper.

Manning has had other seasons with lower numbers than he had in 2010. So what is one to make of all of this?

I decided to look at the tape myself. I first went back to the tape of Manning's play in Super Bowl 44, in which he went 31 of 45 for 333 yards passing and used that as my baseline for comparison. I would classify Manning's velocity in that game as NFL average. Next, I compared it with Manning's last game of 2010, in which the Colts faced the Tennessee Titans. If Manning had lost velocity, it would have become readily apparent by Week 17.

The Titans tried to play Manning in either a Cover 2/Zone Under or a Cover 2/Man Under scheme most of the day. The strength of the Cover 2 (and why it's so popular) is that it takes away big plays and forces the offense to methodically drive down the field. It is susceptible to the deep outside of the field, however, if the quarterback can fit the ball into the compressed windows between the cornerback and the safety coming over the top. It's also weak against a variety of route combinations, like the high/low against the weakside corner or clear/dig routes against the linebackers.

This is exactly how Manning attacked the Titans that day. He got particular use out of his quick game--slant combinations, speed outs to the running backs after the cornerback had been cleared, and a variety of high/low read combinations where he went to the low read. More importantly, he also stuck four intermediate/deep outs in the range of 13-20 yards, which are the gold standard by which a quarterback's arm strength is judged. He even threw a nice 30-yard touchdown in the game with velocity--in fact, with more velocity than Kerry Collins, his counterpart in the game, had shown (this may or may not be saying much, depending on your view of Collins's arm). He was typically Manning--changing plays at the line of scrimmage, isolating his mismatches, and limiting the Titans' ability to substitute on defense. On one particular play of note, he connected with new Broncos tight end, Jacob Tamme, up the seam after seeing the linebacker out of position (the linebacker had made the mistake of biting on a play fake). His timing, ball placement, and location were never better.

Of Manning's forty-one throws, his velocity was poor on four of them. Interestingly enough, they were all throws of fifteen yards or more; further, all four of the poor throws were to the right. I found this even more peculiar given John Elway's mention of it in today's DP article. Still, I wasn't overly concerned. If Manning had truly lost velocity, one would have expected the number of poor throws to be greater.

Perhaps age and injury will tell a different tale. And with a year off, it's impossible to know how much velocity he'll lose--if any. But the idea that his velocity was slipping noticeably in 2010--before the injury--seems a little far-fetched.

You said in 3 sentences what took me a thousand million sentences. LIKED!

Posted by Super7 on 2012-03-28 11:59:52

The guy in the flat was hard for him to hit. I went to a game in 1994 against the Steelers and saw this very thing. It made me say out loud,"Man, Elway sucks!" The entire south stands looked back at me. "Just kidding everybody...."

Posted by Mickey Kavanaugh on 2012-03-28 11:37:37

Yeah, this is like buying a Buggati Veyron and finding out it only does 262mph instead of 267mph. I guess our option was to stay with the Geo Metro and, with a strong tailwind, maybe break the 90's.

I also heard that Manning's getting older every day. Can't wait to read the press release on that one...

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-03-28 10:09:10

It's common sense kinetics here.

Had a conversation in 2010 with a good buddy of mine who is a huge Manning fan and Colts fan. We talked about these deep/outside the numbers passes and how they seemed less deadly than in years past.

There are a lot of factors that should be considered though, such as offensive line, WR talent, and that the season was nearing it's end. But obviously age is the biggest factor.

Frankly, I'd be shocked (SHOCKED) if Manning was throwing laser beams 48 yards down field outside the numbers with regularity. But when he does decide to attack there, he'll be fine.

He'll have had 18 months or so away from playing on Sundays, so although his tread is worn, there's plenty left.

Compare Peyton to Elway here. When Elway was 35, he didn't have the cannon he had when he was 25, let alone 30. But that didn't matter. Elway was more accurate, had a better cast of characters to play with, and had the mental game whipped by then. Manning is no different. His strength is anticipation, accuracy, and the correct amount of velocity.

Conversely, look at a guy like Favre. His strength was always velocity, guts, and improvisation. Much like young Elway. The difference was that Elway learned to play with LESS desperation (because of his coaching, his mental abilities, and his teammates stepping up) and that coincided with his physical abilities waning slightly toward the end of his career. Favre, on the other hand, played no less desperately at the end of his career. At least that's how it looked to me.

Manning's strengths and intellect should allow him to learn to play with any variation in physical ability that he has. Look, if his velocity's way off, he's Joe Montana at worst. If it's slightly off, he's the same Peyton Manning we've watched thrash the league for 14 years and we won't notice a difference because he'll learn to avoid certain scenarios and passes if he must. He won't be way off, otherwise I'm not sure if Elway signs him.

The bottom line: None of this matters. He's a professional athlete. Of course there'll be a slight physical drop off towards the end of his playing career. Should we be worried in the slightest? No.

I find it silly that writers and fans raise an eyebrow to a 35/36 year old man who isn't as deadly on the deep-out patterns as he was when he was 30. Duh.

You don't think Elway knows this story all too well?

Posted by Super7 on 2012-03-28 09:38:53

I recall the Avalanche glory years and how Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg always were about 1.5 seconds ahead of everybody else on the ice-- vision and intellect wise, that is. I've always viewed Manning the same way. Unless his arm strength has jumped off a cliff, that's the least of our worries, IMO.

Posted by drewthorn on 2012-03-28 08:08:25

Looking at the first pics of Manning working out in a Bronco t-shirt, I couldn't help but notice how fantastic his mechanics look in the stills, and how small his upper body and arms look. Peyton is a big tall dude, so that must be part of the reason why he looks rather "unbuilt". But, wow, from a quarterbacking perspective, every photo of him in action looks perfect.

Posted by MississippiMudWalk on 2012-03-28 05:52:17

I would say this is more to the truth of why he had a little less zip on the ball in 2010.

Thanks, TJ, for a great article.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-03-28 01:28:38

Exactly my thoughts! Nicely said, man.

Posted by broncosmontana on 2012-03-27 23:44:14

Fantastic work, TJ.

Manning's greatest asset is his mind. If he can get the receivers to be on the same page with him, I don't care how much velocity he's lost (as long as it's not too much), he'll still be 1-3 steps ahead of the defense.

Posted by Orange_and_Blue on 2012-03-27 23:23:07

Buyer's remorse anyone? Nah, me neither.

The article also quotes an exec from a team that went after Manning. Who wants to bet that both the exec and scout are from the Titans? Jealous much?

It also quotes Chris Weinke, who says he cam back stronger from a similar situation. I'm guessing that this injury was already affecting his play in 2010, which might have led to a slight decrease in velocity. The surgeries, in theory, should allow him to regain his pre-injury form.

BTW, in 2010 Manning threw 679 passes -- by far the most in his career. Could it be that, at 34, his arm was simply fatigued by throwing 100 more passes than in any other season in his career? Or is that just too simple of an explanation.

BTW2: He still completed 66 percent of his passes that year for 4700 yards and 33 touchdowns.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2012-03-27 23:01:08

Well Meee-Owww! Did anyone ever consider this? It's like working smarter, not harder. In 36 years, PM is smarter, so he doesn't have to throw as hard to achieve the same results, but, I'll bet he still can, when he wants to. He's also a "Slick" aka "Mr. Slick"---slicker. Smarter, slicker,-doubly dangerous!

Posted by CaptCatnip on 2012-03-27 22:46:28

I always wondered why Elway had so much trouble completing swing passes to Sammy Winder. I mean, John, 23 is just a few yards away. Not so h-h-ha-hard.

Posted by A R on 2012-03-27 22:13:35

In French French, "Pierre Garcon" means "Peter Man". In Hatian French, it means "dropped passes". In French Indo-China French, it means "sour fish".

Posted by A R on 2012-03-27 22:10:26

I'm positively thrilled and excited to witness this coming season.

Posted by 303user on 2012-03-27 22:04:59

Not to mention...perhaps his arm strength was down due to his neck injury, which in theory is getting better

Posted by Brett Sills on 2012-03-27 21:51:37

It was pretty exciting. I can tell you this, I commented to Doug as I was watching the tape things, like, "Oh, look, he just noticed the linebacker leaning towards his zone and he's going right after him." Another time it was, "Doug, he just baited the safety into showing his true coverage--cover 1, and now he's going to take a shot deep because he knows the other safety can't get over." Another time I said to Doug, "holy crap, he just went through his fourth progression in just over two seconds. And hit it."

Part of what he does so well--in addition to having a hot route on EVERY passing play--is that he waits so long, the defenders end up showing their leverage--in other words, he notices their subtle leaning to their responsibilities on the play. Most QBs only go so far. They can do the basic stuff--determine the placement of the safeties and make a reasonable guess at man or zone coverage. They usually catch this on their initial "slow scan." What makes Manning so great is his 2nd and 3rd scans. The defense almost always gives away its intentions. It's damn hard for a LB with ADHD to hold himself still for the entirety of the play clock.

Posted by TJ Johnson on 2012-03-27 21:39:40

This article is proof that NFL writers are reaching for every last bit of material possible now that the OFFseason is here. Manning is going to light it up people. GO Broncos!

Posted by Joshua Graham on 2012-03-27 21:31:18

As an aside, Elway commented that much of what was claimed to be losing arm strength was actually learning to put a touch on his passes - his receivers had a lot of broken fingers prior to that.

What TJ's telling us is that with a substantial impingement of the brachial plexus - the nerve that controls the arm, which Manning had back then - PM was still an incredibly accurate and reasonably powerful passer. The PM that the Broncos are getting - as shown by Brian Xanders comments that were just tweeted by our friend Andrew Mason at MaxDenver - is as effective as ever. That's going to be a joy to Broncos fans and a huge headache for the rest of the AFC West - and probably for the rest of the league.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-03-27 21:21:05

Very interesting read Teej. I am hoping that what Elway saw in the 55.5678 minutes (or seconds depending on who you believe) of throwing was enough to reassure him that Manning can regain his strength. Knowing what I know about neck injuries, twisting, and throwing, I can't help but think nerve damage would have affected his arm strength. Presumably that is fixed now. Fingers crossed.

Posted by Kriss Bergethon on 2012-03-27 21:18:41

So honestly, TJ, exactly how giddy were you knowing that Manning will be under center for the Broncos while you were watching the tape? I can't recall the last year Denver's 3rd down conversion percentage was even in the top 1/2 of the league.

Posted by Ralph_W on 2012-03-27 21:10:46

The funny thing is Elway lost a lot of arm strength late in his career too - I'm not sure if it was age or the biceps injury.

The difference between guys like Elway and Favre and Manning is that they had elite arm strength and losing a little bit didn't really hurt.