Could a conservative third-party challenger cause trouble for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in 2014? Analysis

Ohio Gov. John Kasich has upset the Tea Party and other right-leaning groups by advocating for Medicaid expansion and higher taxes on oil and gas companies. That's fueling talk of a potential conservative spoiler in next year's race for governor.

(Gus Chan, The Plain Dealer)

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Forgive yourself if the name Scott Rupert fails to ring any bells.

The truck driver from Mechanicsburg was a footnote of last year's closely watched U.S. Senate race in Ohio, pulling 4.6 percent of the vote as an independent candidate.

Republican Gov. John Kasich will seek re-election next year, likely without the fervent Tea Party support that helped sweep him into office in 2010. His efforts to expand Medicaid coverage and raise taxes on big oil and gas companies have made political enemies out of this very critical chunk of the GOP base. Democrats are poised to counter with Ed FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga County executive and former mayor of Lakewood.

An election where Tea Party voters stay home or – just as bad for Kasich – show up and cast ballots for a third-party candidate with no chance of winning, could propel FitzGerald to the governor's chair. And that's perfectly fine with the movement's leaders, some of whom see a FitzGerald victory as collateral damage for making a statement.

"The Republican Party has no ground game at all other than what the Tea Party does for them," said Tom Zawistowski, a top Tea Party activist from Portage County who ran unsuccessfully for Ohio GOP chairman this year. "Their victory centers will be empty. John Kasich was elected by the Tea Party, whether he wants to admit it or not."

The goal, Borges added, is to "make sure conservatives around the state understand John Kasich's conservative record" on taxes, school choice and other key issues.

"I think there's an extreme frustration with the state of affairs in Washington," Borges said. "That has certainly fomented in a movement that is understandable for folks who want to see real change, and to them I say, 'welcome to the fight, welcome to the cause. Let's make sure the Democrats don't get their mitts on state government again.'"

Despite all the chatter about the potential for a third-party challenger who runs to the right of Kasich, recent polls show the governor with strong support among Republicans. In head-to-head matchups, he plays better in his party than FitzGerald plays in his own. Yet a late June survey by Quinnipiac University found that 10 percent of Republicans found Kasich too liberal, while 9 percent said too conservative and 69 percent "about right."

Combined, those third-party candidates – one from the right, one from the left – represented 3.9 percent of the vote. David Sargent, a write-in, picked up 633 votes.

In each of the four down-ballot races that year, where the major-party candidates receive less attention than those at the top of the ticket, right-leaning candidates from third parties averaged about 5 percent of the vote. Republicans also won all four of those races.

In the previous two gubernatorial elections, before Ohio ballots identified certain third-party candidates by affiliation, independents of any type totaled 2.8 percent and 3.9 percent of the vote. None had a familiar ballot name or a loud cheering section.

And in last year's Senate race, where polls showed Mandel with high unfavorable ratings, the independent Rupert, who leaned right politically but ran unaffiliated, might have taken some votes from Republicans who couldn't bring themselves to support Brown.

Given the Tea Party outrage and Zawistowski's recent comments about Kasich, a libertarian or other third-party conservative who runs for governor next year could find the grassroots might of the movement behind him. So who is the Scott Rupert of 2014?

Earl, 67, ran for secretary of state as a libertarian in 2010, drawing nearly 5 percent of the vote. Earl served as a Republican state representative from northwest Ohio in the 1980s. He is running for governor next year as a libertarian. He and his running mate, Sherry Clark, will formally kick off their candidacy Thursday in Tiffin at a meeting of the North Central Ohio Conservatives, an organization that has rallied with Tea Party groups.

"So what?" Earl replied when asked if his candidacy might tip the election to FitzGerald. "I would think if they can't trust the GOP-controlled House and Senate to hold FitzGerald in check, then they've elected the wrong General Assembly. It's going to take an asteroid to keep the Republicans from keeping control of the House and Senate."

Earl said he will contrast his conservative values with Kasich's.

"It's the perfect time," he said, "to split the vote."

But one political scientist, Tom Sutton of Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, is skeptical that the GOP vote will split enough to send FitzGerald to Columbus.

"John Kasich has all the advantages of incumbency headed into next year," Sutton said. "I don't see the Tea Party being so strong that, if they all backed this Charlie Earl, they would take enough from Kasich where he would lose the election to FitzGerald."