Major League Lacrosse Off-Week Report: Season Outlook

I know. I’m freaking out over USA’s loss to Canada, too. However, there are other perhaps less pressing (but more punitive) issues at hand. When the Canadians and the American’s return to North America there’s still the matter of the MLL championship to contend for. Soccer takes the summer off for their World Cup; lacrosse just keeps playing for their domestic championship. There are six teams vying for four spots in the Major League Lacrosse playoffs. Here is a team-by-team break down based on stats, players, coaches, history and my own sinister biases. Wait, what?

Boston (6-3)

The Cannons are currently sharing first place with the Outlaws (which is nice of them) with three games left to play. The Cannons have won games with ease and with agonizing difficulty. They’ve even won games by accident. The Cannons own six wins, but their three losses have been far more intriguing. Their first loss was to Long Island in week three. They gave up a five goal run to the worst offense in the league statistically, figuratively and literally. It’s true– but we’ll get there later. The Cannons second loss was against Chesapeake in the “Rabil-got-ejected-for-punching-someone-but-no-one-noticed-because-he-wasn’t-suspended” game. Or, at least, that’s what I call it. The “incident” led to a four goal run from the Bayhawks that the Cannons never recovered from. But the third loss was the most difficult for the Cannons to swallow as the ghosts of 2009 reared their heads – The Cannons didn’t score one goal in the fourth quarter of that week 8 game against the previously hapless Nationals. It put a scare through Cannons nation that not even the shorn locks of Paul Rabil’s dome made into hair dolls could top. Boston still has the best feeder in the league (Ryan Boyle: 23 assists) the league’s leading scorer (Matt Poskay: 39 points) and eight players with double digit point totals. The Cannons aren’t the favourites for the Championship. Every Cannons fan knows that, but that’s how it should be in Boston. Boston is a shoe-in for a playoff spot with losses to avenge against Toronto and Chesapeake on the undercard for the true battle with Denver; which will likely be a preview of the 2010 MLL finals.

Denver (6-3)

The Outlaws enter the stretch run as favourites once again this year. The 2009 season looked like a year of destiny, as Outlaws players ran rampant through the league with a 9-3 record entering the playoffs. After dispatching the Boston Cannons in the semi-finals, the Outlaws went on to play in the Championship game against the Nationals with the league’s best midfield, attack and goaltender. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough and Denver fell to the high-octane offense of the Nationals. This year Denver is running on the super extra unleaded and Toronto is sputtering on the cheap Ukranian moped petrol. Denver has totally revamped its midfield and jettisoned several veterans to make way for an entirely new generation of players. Players like Max Seibald, who has had a breakout season with 16 goals and 7 assists – in just seven games. Dan Hardy has been an excellent swingman for the Outlaws as well. He causes match-up problems for every team whether he plays midfield or attack. Hardy’s ability to invert has really opened up the alleys for Denver’s dynamic duo of Drew Westervelt (16g, 7a) and Brendan Mundorf (18g, 15a) – the best attack partnership in the league. Westervelt isn’t on the same pace he was last year when he put up 27g’s and 17a’s and neither is Mundorf (34g, 10a in 2009) but they both play less erratically in the 6 on 6 than they did in previous seasons. Mundorf in particular has really stepped up after being labeled a kamikaze dodger that went to net no matter what the situation was – a change in philosophy that has led to his emergence as Team USA’s most reliable scorer.

Similarly, Jesse Schwartzman is not leading the league in every goaltending stat like he was last year around this time, but he’s there or thereabouts in every category: Fourth in goals against average 12.6, fourth in total saves with 109 and fourth in save percentage at 53%. Schwartzman had a rough start to the season and that skewed his numbers a bit, but I have a feeling that after his performance in the All Star game against Team USA, his confidence is at an all time high. Denver’s man-up offense alone ensures them a spot in the playoffs; the Outlaws convert nearly 45% of their extra man opportunities. With two games against Chicago and one revenge game with Boston, Denver is staring down the #1 spot heading to Annapolis.

Chesapeake (4-5)

Chesapeake has lost four in a row and fired its head coach with three games left. They have the same record as two other MLL teams and don’t seem to have anything going for them – but I have them at the three spot here. Why? Frankly there is WAY too much talent on the Bayhawk’s roster for them NOT to make the playoffs. The following players have played three games or less for Chesapeake: Chris Daniello, Brian Carroll, John Christmas, Ben Hunt, Mike Levin, Nick O’Hara and even Chazz Woodson (Random plug for Da Chazz’s personal website – it’s hilarious/awesome. That’s half of a competitive MLL team right there. Think about that – nine games in and NONE of those guys have played more than a third of them. Maybe that’s the point, though. Maybe the Bayhawk’s front office saw all of that talent on the bench and instead of trying to trade it, just decided to can Tucker. Maybe they though they could get someone else to organize it. Maybe I just made some people angry right there. Maybe I’m right. It’s clear that something had to be done after four straight losses all of which were caused by massive hemorrhages of goals at the beginning and end of each contest.

The Bayhawk’s last loss to the Cannons began with eight straight Boston goals before Chesapeake could even get one. And they were at home. But enough with the negativity, I’m trying to sell the Bayhawks as a playoff team…how about Peet Poillon? The feel good story of the year for sure, Poillon went from barely sniffing the freshly cut turf of the practice squad to being the second leading scorer in the league. The guy basically validated an Inside Lacrosse cover story on UMBC producing MLL players like Cleveland produces athletes that quit on them. Chesapeake’s greatest strength is nearly every other team’s greatest weakness: midfield. Chesapeake has midfielders that can do anything. Need a shooter? Poillon and Dixon. Dodger? Brian Vetter and Michael Kimmel. Transition defense and offense? Matt Abbott and Jeff Reynolds. Not one guy for every role; two guys for every role. With three games left and three teams fighting for two spots it’s just a numbers game. If the Bayhawks can win two of their final three games they will be in with ease. And they will beat Chicago and Long Island to get the head to head advantage for the third place spot.

Chicago (4-5)

The Machine aren’t really from Chicago. They don’t play there anymore. They’re new school nomads. Unlike the Bridgeport/Philadelphia/Homeless Barrage of a few years ago, the Machine don’t really care about where they play. Every year there is a team that is almost impossible to predict. In 2010 that team is the Chicago Machine. I have seen this team play six of their nine games. Each game I thought I was watching a different group of guys. The only constant has been the brothers Leveille. Kevin and Mike have put up 66 points combined. That’s almost more points than the entire starting midfield of the Toronto Nationals. Actually, it’s more than the entire midfield of the Toronto Nationals combined. Needless to say, the Machine’s offense isn’t their problem; even their man-up is hitting the twine at 40%, second in the league.

The Chicago defense has been playing hurt all season and it shows. They are slow and plodding in the 6 on 6, but somehow all become speed demons when they have to clear the ball – they do cause turnovers and lead the league in ground balls with 275. It’s still maddening to see the same banged up defense trot out there and get smoked one on one behind the cage. But the true victims of the defense’s malfeasance? The goalies. Bud Petit and Mike Gabel are last or second to last in every goalie category. I became sad just looking at their numbers. I had to get a root beer float to cheer myself up.

The Machine can win two of their last three games if they can truly embrace their offense wins games philosophy and just play more transition players. Chicago’s woes are often the result of botched possessions and 20-30 second substitutions. I counted it out; it took them 23 seconds to get their first line midfield on against Toronto in week four. They need to play either Jordan Levine, Justin Pennington, or Bill McGlone on each line. Speed kills and those three guys have more of it in their knuckle hair than anyone else on their roster. The only reason I have Chicago above Long Island is because Chicago has an offense that can score.

Long Island (4-5)

Remaining games: Chesapeake, Toronto home and awayStrengths: Team Defense.Weaknesses: Scoring…Ever. Any and all types of offense.

Remember how I said we’d get back to how bad Long Island’s offense is? The Lizards have the worst shot percentage 26%, second worst man down 18%, and least goals scored per game 11.8 in the league. It’s not that they are bad, it’s that they are bad to watch. Honestly, I’d rather watch a bunch of sixth graders play than this group of guys. It’s like watching the 2010 NCAA championship game every time Long Island gets the ball. Who plays slow down one on one conservative offense in the MLL? A team coached by a goalie, that’s who.

Yet, by boring teams to death on offense for 80% of the game it’s hard to ignore Long Island’s defense. The Lizards have a spectacular defensive team. Spallina and Polanco are the mainstays, but the addition of Parker McKee has added even more intensity to the roughest and toughest back three in the league. Danny Cocchi and Frank D’Agostino have played major roles on man down and defensive midfield for the Lizards and 2010 rookie Christian Scuderi has made Steve Panarelli and Mike Culver expendable. Long Island’s defense might be the only defense that MLL coaches have to draw up a specific gameplan to score on. They’re that good. They switch their slides and doubles on the fly with ease, thanks in part to their new keeper Drew Adams. Adams has stepped into an impossible situation by replacing legendary net minder Brian Dougherty. Adams isn’t quite the personality that Dougherty is – few are – but he is every bit the communicator.

Again, it’s so hard to praise one aspect of a team and completely admonish the other, but Long Island forces you to notice how horrendous their offense is and how dominating their defense is on every possession. Matt Danowski is enjoying his best season as a pro, but even he has been changed by the Lizard’s dodge-dodge-gotta-shoot offense. Dino was one of the best feeder’s the game had seen since Conor Gill when he completed his NCAA career and now he’s dodging in circles going to cage every tie he touches the ball. He even has his old target Zack Greer to pass to and he just won’t do it. Why won’t you pass to him Matt? Why? He’s open right now sitting on the crease in Manchester waiting for you to pass him the ball, Danowski. The Lizards will get walloped by Chesapeake and likely split their games with Toronto. Then they will trade for both Bratton brothers. Help, them Rhamel and Shamel, you’re their only hopes.

Toronto (3-6)

The Nationals have been a huge disappointment as the defending 2009 MLL champions. I could stop there couldn’t I? 3-6? THREE AND SIX? How dare you. I still think the Canadians used the first nine games of the MLL season as a smokescreen for the FIL championships. Lull Team USA into thinking they suck by tanking the Nationals franchise for ¾ of the year and then BAM! OT win. (Oh, it wasn't OT? Canada killed the ball? It's even worse than I thought...) I love conspiracies. I know, I know - the Nationals aren’t team Canada. They have American goalies and Native American/Canadian players all over the field. It would make you feel better about Team USA losing if I was right though, wouldn’t it?

Fan-tanking plot aside; The Nationals are a sleeping giant that has only recently awoken. The Nats have won three of their last four games beating Boston (good win), Chesapeake (good win) and Long Island (…). Alas, it’s too little, too late. There is no way the Nationals win their FIL-week MLL game. Even with all of the Nationals players valiantly battling from their bitter disappointment on missing the World Games, the Nationals still have to start rookies on D and find a face-off man on the street to even field a team. There isn’t much else to say about Toronto. This may seem like a harsh forecast, but they have no one to blame but themselves for their current situation. Even their attendance ahs taken a hit and their poor performance this season cannot result in a playoff appearance. No one feels worse for John Grant junior, Geoff Snider and Brett Queener than I do, but it’s over for the Nationals. At least they can cuddle with the Steinfeld cup for a few more weeks.