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Monday, 16 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Singapore, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the
Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the
Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in
favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6
Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

17.50

1

Jenson Button

1.17

2

Fernando Alonso

0.83

6

Mark Webber

0.65

5

Sebastian Vettel

0.25

5

Nico Rosberg

-0.02

4

Felipe Massa

-0.30

2

Lewis Hamilton

-0.32

5

Jean-Eric Vergne

-0.67

1

Romain Grosjean

-0.85

2

Kimi Raikkonen

-1.34

3

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.Nico Hulkenberg was available at 21.0 before first practise at the Italian Grand Prix and so he
jumps straight to the top of the chart as the most profitable top six
bet thanks to his fifth place finish at Monza. However, it's Fernando Alonso who has consistently been the bet with the least amout of risk, with a top six finish at each of the last six Grand Prix.

The second chart shows the figures for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Entire Season):

Top 6
Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

9.00

1

Jean-Eric Vergne

5.00

1

Lewis Hamilton

1.96

10

Mark Webber

1.56

9

Sebastian Vettel

1.52

11

Jenson Button

0.18

4

Nico Rosberg

-0.28

7

Felipe Massa

-0.39

6

Fernando Alonso

-0.76

9

Romain Grosjean

-1.71

4

Kimi Raikkonen

-2.36

7

Sergio Perez

-7.00

1

Paul di Resta

-8.25

1

Adrian Sutil

-9.25

1

Rest Of The Field

-12.00

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The odds of 21.0 were enough to ensure Nico Hulkenberg also tops the full season chart, but if you're looking for a safe bet then Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso and Webber are the drivers to consider, with each achieving a top six finish from at least seventy five percent of this season's Grand Prix.

That's the statistics for the Top Six Finish betting market covered and tomorrow I'll be covering the form guide for Top Ten Finish betting.