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Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Tzuk Eytan (Protective Edge) Day 30

Who ever said life
was fair.

A French TV24 reporter, safe out of Gaza, showed footage of rocket
tubes in the ground a few yards from an apartment building in a
densely populated area only 100 yards from a five story UN building.
Pundits are now sitting in TV studios telling the viewers that
Israel needs to think up more stuff like the Iron Dome, not rely on
the old tanks, artillery, air force bombs. Something wild, like
Entebbe, to neutralizenot only Hamas, today, but Hezbollah, tomorrow,
and ISIS, the day after tomorrow..Pundits now wonder if there are not
other ways than pummeling Gaza into dust.
New methods are needed to battle these groups, said Nehemia
Strassler, an Israeli professor, and Haaretz columnist. Not nice to
hear comments like this, said the moderator on the Channel 2 news
morning talk show.
Other pundits speculated that all the brainy, creative guys have
opted out of joining and staying in the army, as smart guys did when
the state was young, rather choosing high tech jobs. Choosing
Armani, an IPO, a Mercedes, and trips to Paris, over
khaki for thirty years and a small apartment. Now the smart guys
who do reserve duty, put in their time and go home. Lucky for Israel
a surprisingly high number still do reserve duty. Over 90 percent of
those called up for this conflict showed up at their bases.
So, speculate the commentators, who's left to think up the
smart stuff?
They point out that Iron Dome was dreamed up by a guy who had to
fight tooth and nail to get anyone to even think about this device,
and then it was the then Defense Minister Amir Perez, who was part of
the debacle of the second War in Lebanon, who approved it. One of the
only things he ever did right, said one analyst.
Another commentator asked where were the Gatling guns, and lazer
canons, that were to take out the same mortars that killed over
twenty soldiers, and sent the residents of the Gaza border scurrying
to shelter, or taking their children and leaving for the north of
Israel.
Still another asked where were the tunnel detectors that have been
discussed for nearly a decade, reminding viewers that Gilad Shalit
was kidnapped back in 2006 and dragged into a tunnel into Gaza.
A reporter for Channel 10 TV lives in a farm along the Gaza
border. He reported on the situation in the south every day, how many
rockets, how many injuries, how many killed. He worked every day,
nearly all day and night. Hardly slept. The moderator of the TV show
pointed out that this reporter had been a pilot in the Israeli air
force until he finished his service.
The reporter, whose wife and children were with relatives in the
north of the country,wondered what will happen after the first mortar
lands in the Jewish areas along the border.
Will Israel rush troops in, as the commander of the southern
command promised him? Or do nothing, just absorb the mortars, as
Israel has done after the last two wars with Hamas? If the latter
than this Tzuk Eytan action only bought a few months or maybe two
years.
Another analyst on Channel 2 TV news said that Israel has always
been like that. Buying a chunk of time, stretching out the timeline
of how long the Jews can last in this country. A few years here, a
few years there, adding up to 66 years so far.
Israel's pundits say that the idea of Tzuk Eytan was to duplicate
the results of Lebanon in 2006. Demolish enough buildings and shake
the ground so much that that the population won't come back for a
number of years to start another war. So far the Israel/Lebanon
border has been quiet for 8 years. Analaysts say that the present
Israeli government expects the same results from the current Tzuk
Eytan conflict.
A period of quiet.
Another patch on the timeline.
One commentator pointed out that in the 1,000 years that Israel
held the land from the time of King Saul until the destruction of the
2nd Temple Israel only had about 7 years of peace.
So now what? ask the commentators. Will the PA be able to grab the
reins in Gaza from Hamas? Will Egypt supervise what's going to go on
there? Will the USA get involved? Or the EU, or Britain? Will the
threatened boycotts of goods from the EU, Britain, Germany and
others, actually take place?
Time will tell. Hamas was in dire financial trouble before this
conflict.And politically isolated. Now billions of dollars will be
poured into Gaza. And while Hamas claims they want a settlement, most
pundits expect them to steal the cement sent by well-meaning
countries to rebuild Gaza and use them to rebuild the tunnels.
Commentators remind viewers that the last time Hamas and the PA
vied for control of Gaza, Hamas pushed the PA out, sometimes shot
them, sometimes tossed them off of rooftops. These commentators ask
why would the PA be able to control Hamas now?
One analyst said that the PA is a partner with Israel in the West
Bank, but the IDF is there in force to back up the PA. No one expects
the IDF to take up positions in Gaza.
Polls in Israel's papers today say that 44 percent of the
population thinks Israel didn't accomplish much in this war. 42
percent thinks they reached their goals. About 37 percent think that
the problems aren't solved, 32 percent thought they were.
Only PM Netanyahu came out ahead, with a 72 percent approval
rating.
A former general told Channel 1 TV that he'd warned in the past
two engagements with Hamas that unless the leadership was taken out
the rockets would start again in a short time. He reiterated his
opinion for this engagement as well.
The political leadership in Israel is suddenly looking at Saudi
Arabia, Egypt and the PA as possible partners for a new Middle East.
The peace-talks are going on in Cairo. Hamas says they want to make a
peace agreement. A 72-hour ceasefire has been declared, but most
analysts expect the talks in Cairo to last a lot longer since so many
difficult points have to be ironed out. And the analyst reminded the
audience that the negotiations were not face to face. The USA doesn't
talk to Hamas, neither does Egypt, or Israel. The PA representatives
will be the go-betweens, shuttling from floor to floor, suite to
suite, trying to get a lasting truce.
One former general pointed out that the irony was that Hamas, a
puny, guerrilla,, although well-organized army divided into 6
divisions of good fighters, had Israelis kissing the asphalt in Tel
Aviv when a siren sounded, kept millions of Israelis on edge, closed
Ben Gurion Airport, and made a significant dent in Israel's economy.
Economists estimate that the war cost Israel an estimated 8
billion shekels (@$2 billion) and caused a loss of another 4 billion
shekels (@ $1.3 billion) to Israeli businesses.
Hamas considers these major achievements.Their leadership sat out
the war in bunkers, sacrificing the Gazans up to the Holy War. And
when the war is over, Hamas is still around. Still alive. To the
leadership that is a major victory.
64 Israeli soldiers fell in this war. Nearly 150 are in the
hospital, 11 in serious conditions. Three civilians were killed. Over
the last two days three terrorist attacks took place in Israel. A bus
was toppled over by a tractor crushing a passerby. A soldier
hitchhiking in Jerusalem,was shot and killed by a terroist who
escaped on a motorscooter. A guard at the gates of the Israeli town
of Maale Adumim, down the hill from Jerusalem, was stabbed by a
terrorist who escaped in a taxi cab.
The Israeli police reported that on July 11 they'd arrested Hossam
Kawasmeh, who admitted to leading cell which abducted and murdered
Gil-Ad Schaer, Eyal Yifrach, and Naftali Frenkel; He said he'd
received funds from Hamas. Kawasmeh said that the two
Palestinans, Marwan Kawasmeh and Amar Abu-Eish who carried out the
attacks, were sheltered at his house, and then they went underground.
The police are still searching for them.
According to Channel 10 TV news' Alon Ben David, Gaza lost
approximately 2,000 citizens, among them women and children. 700
Hamas fighters were killed in the fighting.
One pundit thought that perhaps, just perhaps, when the Gazans
return to their homes, and see the destruction, they'll pressure
Hamas to change their ways, and seek a peaceful solution. According
to Ynet on-line news, Palestinians in Gaza attacked Hamas spokesman
Sami Abu Zuhri out of anger at Hamas for causing the latest round of
violence with Israel.
An economist speculated that a truce could help implant a new
direction in the region. One that allows Gazan construction workers
to return to jobs they had in Israel before the borders were closed.
Allow an industrial zone that opened, and then closed, on the
Gaza/Israel border where businessmen from the two areas cooperated in
trade. The future could be bright, said the analyst, if only....