Why Are Oil Markets So Nervous about Egypt?

By GLG Expert Contributor

The uprisings in Egypt will put upward pressure on oil and gas prices in the short run as traders will worry about similar revolts in oil-exporting Arab countries. The risk of physical threats to oil facilities in the region remains small but slow down or production stoppage in is a possibility if popular uprisings spread to Algeria or Saudi Arabia. The probability of such developments however remains small. Inside Egypt there is a small risk that flow of oil through Suez canal might be disrupted as a result of chaos and lack of authority.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Having analysed Biofuel as a whole in my previous article, we will now have an analysis of the transport sector in the country (US) mainly because it is the sector which uses biofuels the most. The graph below shows renewable fuel consumption by source and sector in the US.

ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company, expects global carbon emissions to rise by nearly 25% in the next 20 years, in effect dismissing hopes that runaway climate change can be arrested and massive loss of life prevented.

According to the company's annual Outlook for Energy report – due to be published in the next few weeks –

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Oil dependence has been a major concern in the energy industries when referring to Energy Security. Energy Security is known as the reliable and adequate supply of energy at reasonable prices”[1]. For the United States (US), its energy security issues come mainly from its core dependence on oil. It is a major oil importing country and majority of its oil come from regions that are volatile such as the Middle East. Its oil consumption has grown increasingly over the last 50 years; net oil imports grew at a steady rate up till 1977 then dropped a bit from then till 1982 after which it has been on the increase due to increase in demand. In ‘70s, policy makers were alarmed by the increase in imports by 50% and tried to look for ways to change the demand pattern by “reducing it”[2] and invariably imports to about 1/3 of oil consumption; but despite their efforts, oil import dependence still stands at about 60% and is expected to increase[3] if there is no change in the US’s consumption pattern or sources.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

There is a debate as to what exactly promotes the recent oil-shock that has been witnessed in the international oil markets and whether the global response to it has been a function of excessive demand or other externalities which combine to create oil shocks, ultimately benefitting the producing nations and oftentimes to the detriment of the global economy. Research has shown[1] that since 1973, the real reasons and effects of oil shocks have not only been in the form of an abnormal demand or supply functions, but majorly by speculative demand shocks. The logic[2] is that the oil supply shocks have had little effects on oil prices since the period in question; rather the combination of speculative demand shocks to the price of oil globally as well as the global business cycle contributed immensely to the swing in the price of oil severally from 1973.

Carbon capture a myth or possibility?

By Asher Price

In a four-story test plant just behind a warehouselike research building in North Austin, University of Texas researchers are hoping for a revolutionary breakthrough to the question of how to continue to burn coal without contributing to global warming.

The mini power plant, only big enough to theoretically power a few homes, pipes carbon dioxide in and captures it with the aid of some fancy stack filters and a variety of solvents. The aim is to capture about 90 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted by the minifacility and then to scale up the project in a half-dozen years to a commercial plant.

The OPEC domination of the global energy markets is set to grow, says BP in its just released BP Energy Outlook, and it made headlines all over the globe, sending shivers through some spines. The outlook underlined that world is entering an era of OPEC dominance over the markets.

BP’s forecast shows that over the next 20 years OPEC will become as powerful as it was in its golden years in the 70’s — in the immediate aftermath of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. BP Energy Outlook 2030 predicts that the OPEC would see its market share rise to 46 per cent from the current 40 percent, over the coming two decades — “a position not seen since 1977.”

Monday, January 24, 2011

The question of whether OPEC has contributed to the uncertainty in oil prices- which has now become a constant feature of international oil prices- will be given more than a passing comment in this article. OPEC is the sovereign body or cartel which was established in 1960 to promote the interest of its member oil-producers. The role of OPEC over time may not have been one which is generally appreciated across academic discourse especially in the field of petroleum economics, but it is one that offers an insight as to the extent to which oil-producer nations can galvanize themselves into a formidable block which will hold its own at all times.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Greenpeace labels BP's Australian exploration win a "sick joke"

By Christine Forster

Not surprisingly, environmental lobby group Greenpeace was quick to condemn this week's award to BP of four new petroleum exploration permits off Australia's southern coast, even going so far as to label the move "some kind of sick joke."

UK oil major BP is being singled out for its role presiding over last year's Macondo oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly given the recent findings of the US Oil Spill Commission that the incident was the result of systemic industry problems and a "failure of management" by the companies involved. But Australian environmental groups are also particularly wary of offshore drilling after watching a well at the Montara field spill oil into the Timor Sea off Western Australia for 10 weeks in 2009.

In today’s highly competitive oil and gas industry, offshore oil accounts for around 25% of the world’s total reserves (Alazard-Toux, 2004). Majority of the new natural gases are also discovered offshore. Between the period of 1999 and 2003, 60% of gas discoveries were offshore- which included deep-sea regions such as North America (offshore-technology.com, 2009). Hence, it is more than certain that the offshore sector would reflect a growing share of investment, which should aid development and production capacity.

BP, Rosneft deal: what the analysts say

By Ben Harrington

Michele della Vigna at Goldman Sachs

"This transaction would be earnings dilutive for BP, as we estimate that BP would only be allowed to book its share of Rosneft dividends in the P&L (c.0.2pc of BP’s net income), while the share count would get diluted by 5.2pc. This is likely to lead to c.5% EPS dilution for BP from this deal."

"On the positive side, this deal would provide BP with a 33pc share in a highly prospective area of frontier exploration that, according to BP, could be compared to the UK North Sea – both in size and potential. Obviously the area will require years to explore, will be very challenging and is unlikely to generate any production before the end of the decade."

Solving the UK ENERGY GAP: Not an Easy Job but Nuclear Enrgy and Wind Power Will Have to Do It.

By Roy Bhamra

One of today’s largest global challenges is the production of energy. The need for clean or green energy and new technologies is ever increasing. There are social, environmental and political pressures. Despite all these pressures, one force that stands out is the topic of energy security. Energy security has no clear-cut definition; I like to define it as logistically securing the amount of energy we need to keep the lights on and the cars moving tomorrow.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

As the world’s demand for oil increases, so does the search for more sources of oil by oil and gas companies. In today’s highly competitive oil and gas industry, over 80% of the global spending on deepwater projects is going to take place within the golden triangle off the deepwaters, which is made up of West Africa, Deep Water Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Brazil (Gue, 2009).

Benefiting from investment in the offshore sector has never been easy, especially as it entails a lot of costs and required state of the art technology. Projects could start from around 1,000 ft to well over 38,000 ft such as the Tiber field in the deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico; which contains about 3 billion cubic metres of oil reserves (Gue, 2009).

Friday, January 14, 2011

In Nigeria, the estimated growth rate in the demand for white products (PMS, DPK & AGO)is 5% per annum. Therefore, if current demand of 15.24 Million MTPA (Metric Tonnes Per Annum) is projected to 2015, it will result in a 2015 demand of 19.45 Million MTPA. If the existing refineries were able to achieve 63% of nameplate capacity and double production to 8.36 Million MTPA, the supply gap in 2015 would remain unchanged at 11.09 Million MTPA. If regional demand is taken into consideration, then the refining capacity will have to be increased.[1]A Greenfield Refinery Project has been proposed to be built at the Lekki Free trade zone in Lagos, Nigeria and will cost about US$5 Billion.[2] It is my objective to show through this article that an additional refinery capacity can be economically and financially viable; while pointing out that government must have clear-cut goals and objectives in eliminating all distortions- in order to ensure continuity, efficiency and profitability.

Nigeria has four refineries of world standard, with a total assumed installed capacity of 445,000 barrels per day. The country has 4 existing refineries that have been operated sub-optimally for various reasons. Nonetheless, demand shortfalls are met through importation. Currently, efforts are ongoing to rehabilitate and revamp the existing refineries- in order to stabilize and produce to designed capacity, meet up with increase in demand for white products (PMS, DPK & AGO)and to deal with the economic imperative of immediate import-substitutionas there is the need to close this gap and stem the flood of imports; these all prove the case for the establishment of a new refinery in Nigeria[1]. New refining capacity will thus be required to meet supply gaps and conserve on foreign exchange.[2]

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Before the BP (British Petroleum) Texas city refinery accident, the Telos Group (2004) had noticed a dismal level of leadership support, a fire brigade culture and exceptions to standard practice at the BP refinery. Even after the Texas city spill, several accidents would still occur. The most recent safety and risk management incident is at the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon rig where 11 people lost their lives and since April 20, 2010 about 1.7 million gallons a day may have been spilled (British Broadcasting Corporation, 2010) into the ocean.