Friday, December 31, 2010

Chinese vs USA Consumer: Average Chinese to be Richer than Average American in 27 Years?

Rise of the Chinese Consumer Edward Lazear was former Chairman of the Council Of Economic Advisers for President George Bush. In a recent CNBC interview, he projected that the average Chinese will be wealthier than the average American consumer in 27 years, based on current growth rates. Mr. Lazear is now an economics professor at Stanford University and says the USA government policies should focus on the long-term growth, not the short-term fixes, for the economy.

Sustainability of China Economic Growth The question becomes one of sustainability of the Chinese economic growth rates, first and foremost. The population of China is 1.331 billion (World Bank estimate 2008), or about 22% of the entire world. To increase the standard of living for this tremendous number of people would require extraordinary quantities of natural resources and drive the prices of same upwards. Scarcity, the supply and demand curve, would limit the growth as commodities, materials, oil, and natural resource prices skyrocketed. Likely as Chinese wealth increases, USA wealth will slow or even decrease, until both meet somewhere in the middle. The sustainability of the Chinese economic growth rate was considered in a previous post here [The Rise of China: Living Beyond Its Environmental Means? (Videos) "Relentless march to prosperity"]. Lazear does make a good point not to forget the economic growth of India (1.155 billion estimated 2009 by World Bank). This will put even additional pressures on the demand for natural resources.

CNN "Chinese vs. US Consumer" The average Chinese will be richer than the average American in 27 years, says Edward Lazear, fmr. chairman of Council Of Economic Advisers.

China Manufacturing The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit, dipped, but continued expanding, in December to 54.4 from 55.3 (-0.9) in November. This was the first decrease after 4 consecutive monthly increases (August through November). Key points noted in the report were:

*Slower rises in output, new business and backlogs of work.*Strongest increase in purchasing for eleven months.*Input cost inflation eased, but remained substantial.HSBC: "For Q4 as a whole, overall growth of the sector was the strongest since Q1 2010. Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China &amp; Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "Inflation rather than growth still remains as the top policy concern, despite the moderation in December’s manufacturing PMI reading. We expect Beijing to continue to relying on quantitative tightening measures to curb inflation and counter the impact of QE2, while modest interest rate hikes are also needed to anchor inflation expectations in the coming months."

China Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Manufacturing PMI for the latest 10 months, from March 2010 through December 2010. Manufacturing has expanded, remained above 50, every month except July 2010.

About the PMI

The HSBC China Report on Manufacturing is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 manufacturing companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on regional and industry contribution to Chinese Industrial Production. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Analysis International is reporting that the statistics from Enfodesk, the Seasonal Survey of China Online Ad market in Q3 2010, have Baidu (30.09%) leading in market share ahead of Alibaba (9.27%), Google (8.90%), and Sina (8.89%). Tencent (6.14%) and Sohu (5.57%) trail

Noteworthy is Google has slipped from 2nd to 3rd in market share with this report, although Google has stated Q3 China revenues did increase from Q2. Google, in a dispute with Chinese censorship, began redirecting its web traffic to their Hong Kong website early in 2010. Google closed its Chinese website. China did renew Google's internet operators license at June 30, 2010.

﻿

The Analysis International Press Release

The increasing diversion of fragmentation browsing decreases the market concentration of online ad operators in 2010 Q3. Among major operators, Alibaba’s Taobao keyword ad and the development of interactive marketing ad business allows its ad revenue to grow substantially and therefore Alibaba has jumped to No.2 in China Internet ad market, outdoing Sina and Google; while Google’s market share has dropped by 2%. Analysys International believes that to put an end to its drop, Google needs to make a quick response by redoubling its efforts in direct ad sales and cooperating with ad agents to adapt itself to Chinese market.

In addition, with the continued enhancement of Tencent ad marketing business, its ad revenue will keep growing rapidly. However, compared with Sina ad which grows in a relatively mature way, it's a little bit difficult for Tencent to overdo Sina as regards ad revenue.

About China

﻿China has the largest population of any country in the world. Total population is 1.328 billion (2008), about 22% of total population in the world. Li Bin, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, said that the world's most populous country is projected to have 1.39 billion citizens by 2015. China also has a very dense population, with approximately 135+ people per square kilometer. By comparison, the US Census Bureau estimates the USA population at 310.8 million and the world population at 6.88 billion.

Since the founding of new China in 1949, China's economy has witnessed great achievement in different stages. The CIA World Factbook estimates China is the third largest economy in the world, behind the European Union and USA and ahead of Japan.

UnsustainableGrowth in China?In the first video, the WWF (Worldwide Fund for Nature) says China's growth is environmentally unsustainable in its "relentless march to prosperity". China's "ecological footprint has surpassed a point of sustainability that threatens us all". China is consuming twice the resources of its own "biocapacity". Carbon emissions, from the burning of fossil fuels, is the largest single factor in the exponential increase of China's ecological footprint, increasing 20-fold in the last 50 years. China accuses the West of hypocrisy in attempting to curb China's carbon emissions and ecological footprint. China continues advocating an ongoing exemption for developing nations such as China, India, Brazil, et. al. so that economic growth will not stall and the standard of living will continue to increase.

A Changing China"For hundreds of millions of Chinese, Yue-Sai Kan is a household name. The journalist, television host, entrepreneur and author has been a key figure in modern Chinese culture for 20 years, and she continues to have her finger on the pulse of the Chinese people." About 300 million people in China watch her show which started in 1986. By comparison, the population of the USA is 310+ million. She has been called the "Chinese Oprah". "China is changing very, very fast, the economy is growing like crazy", she says. Yue-Sai discusses the government-controlled and government-owned media plus the expansion from one TV station to 3,000+ stations in China.

China's View of AmericaYue-Sai Kan says the Chinese have always liked the American culture, "from Coca-Cola to Hollywood movies". However, "politically there are things they do not like. The latest, for example, is the way the American government is buying $600 billion worth of debt."

The Rise of China Yue-Sai Kan says "whiat is happening here is essentially a miracle. Anyone who has come here would be thinking to themselves, "this place is growing like amazing', I better learn something about this place'. Because it is an area of the world we should learn a little more about. In the last 20 years, it has grown by leaps and bounds and the Chinese have gotten a lot more self-confidence. This will enable them to go into the next decade with extraordinary power."

NDTTV "Report Says China Living Beyond Its Environmental Means: WWF Says China Growth Unsustainable": China is living beyond its environmental means a Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) report says ahead of Cancun climate conference. A recent report says China is living beyond its ecological means. This report from the Worldwide Fund for Nature - or WWF - says China's ecological footprint grew 50% between 2003 and 2007. It says that both changing consumption patterns and more Chinese migrating to cities are adding pressure to China's already stretched environment.
.

ABCNews "The Most Famous Woman in China": Yue-Sai Kan, television host and businesswoman, reflects on a changing China.

About China

﻿China has the largest population of any country in the world. Total population is 1.328 billion (2008), about 22% of total population in the world. Li Bin, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, said that the world's most populous country is projected to have 1.39 billion citizens by 2015. China also has a very dense population, with approximately 135+ people per square kilometer. By comparison, the US Census Bureau estimates the USA population at 310.8 million and the world population at 6.88 billion.

Since the founding of new China in 1949, China's economy has witnessed great achievement in different stages. The CIA World Factbook estimates China is the third largest economy in the world, behind the European Union and USA and ahead of Japan.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Kaiser Kuo, Director of International Communications, asserts Baidu is an innovator and moving forward with their own plans and goals. In fact, Robin Li, Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Baidu, filed his patent on hyperlink analysis before Larry Page of Google did! So Baidu is no clone, no "derivative company" of Google. Baidu intends on becoming a "global brand". Robin Li has stated that he hopes in 10 years time Baidu is a household name in half the world's Internet market.

Kuo states there are only 4 markets where Google is present, but not dominant: China, Russia, Czech Republic, and South Korea. He says that in China, Baidu is "more local" and "delivers better relevance in Chinese language search" than Google. Google is the much superior English language search engine, but Baidu is tops in the Chinese language. Baidu has "anticipated the use, the needs of the Chinese internet user and done it very well".

Business Week reported on October 20, 2010 that Baidu had a 72.9% share of the Chinese internet market per iResearch for the third quarter. Google had fallen to a 24.6% share, the lowest since 2007. The Chinese internet market is the largest in the world.

(CNN) "Baidu Succeeds Where Google Struggles": Is China's biggest search engine a Google clone with a home court advantage, or an innovator in its own right? Kaiser Kuo, Baidu Director of International Communications responds.

About Baidu

The Baidu Story

Many people have asked about the meaning of our name. "Baidu" was inspired by a poem written more than 800 years ago during the Song Dynasty. The poem compares the search for a retreating beauty amid chaotic glamour with the search for one's dream while confronted by life's many obstacles. "…hundreds and thousands of times, for her I searched in chaos, suddenly, I turned by chance, to where the lights were waning, and there she stood." Baidu, whose literal meaning is hundreds of times, represents persistent search for the ideal.

Baidu chose a poetic Chinese name because it wants the world to remember its heritage. As a native speaker of the Chinese language and a talented engineer, Baidu focuses on what it knows best - Chinese language search. Applying avant-garde technology to the world's most ancient and complex language is as challenging as it is exciting. At least people here at Baidu think so. As having diligently disclosed in the Prospectus of our recent Initial Public Offering, we believe there are at least 38 ways of saying "I" in Chinese. It is important that we master all the ways of addressing oneself in Chinese because our users depend on us to address every one of their daily queries. And trust us, pin pointing queries in the Chinese language is an art rather than a science.

Our mission is to provide the best way for people to find information. To do this we listen carefully to our users' needs and wants. Have we collected all the Chinese web pages they want to see? Are the pages current and up to date? Are the search results closely related to their queries? Did we return those search results instantly? To improve user experience, we constantly make improvements to our products and services. For example, we introduced "phonetic" or "pin-yin" search which allows our users to type in Chinese keywords using English alphabets. This feature is designed to skip the switching from English inputting to Chinese inputting and for when the user is not sure of the written form of a keyword. Our users definitely notice the many little things that we do differently to ensure a simple and reliable search experience every time.

In addition to serving individual users, we also serve as a media platform for online marketing customers. We not only provide our customers easy access to one of the largest online audiences in China but also targeted groups with defined interests as indicated by queries. Unlike traditional online advertising services which charge by flat fee, our marketing products and services are performance based. Our Pay for Performance model has taken the market by storm because it is cost effective and measurable.

We know that a lot of interesting things are going on in the Internet space, but we don't want to lose focus. China's Internet search industry is only a newly discovered territory. We see vast untapped grounds in our home base and we believe there are still plenty of prizes to be claimed by the best players.

Friends of Baidu Planet

About Baidu Planet

Full Disclosure

No information on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research, or an invitation to buy or sell securities. This Blog and related Twitter posts are personal reviews and speculations about securities price action utilizing technical and/or fundamental analyses methods that are not sufficient alone to to make any investment decisions.