Bowl Eligibility - Updated Conference Analysis (Nov 19)

As much as I hate to say, I am rooting for Notre Dame this weekend against USC. I cannot stand to watch another SEC dominated BCS Championship game and the Irish are all that stand between that matchup coming to fruition once more.

Miami became bowl eligible this past weekend and made the smart decision to self impose a ban for this season. One just has to look at Ohio State to see why it was better to forego a bowl during a 6-5 season – you never know what the next season will bring. I am sure those in charge at OSU are lamenting that decision now.

* Liberty takes either CUSA or SEC team and Hawaii takes Mountain West or WAC team

In total, 35 bowl games meaning 70 slots that have to be filled by eligible teams. Let us see how each conference fairs in terms of eligible teams. The information below is broken down as follows: Eligible Teams (have 6 wins already) and On the Cusp (5 wins). I only have one teams left in the Still Have a Shot category. I have also provided the remaining schedule beside each team listed under On the Cusp.

Big Ten

Eligible Teams:

Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin

On the Cusp:

Michigan State (Minnesota)

Purdue (Indiana)

Analysis:

Purdue took care of business against Illinois and now just has to win against Indiana. Michigan State lost another close one against Northwestern and is lucky that Minnesota is the last game on their schedule. A lose to the Gophers will leave the Spartans at home.

ACC

Eligible Teams:

Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech and NC State

On the Cusp:

Wake Forest (Vanderbilt)

Virginia Tech (Virginia)

Analysis:

Both Georgia Tech and Miami became bowl eligible this week, but the administrators at Miami immediately took their program out of the post season. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech still have a shot on the last Saturday of the season, but neither game is easy.

Baylor’s huge upset of Kansas State puts them in a good position to become bowl eligible. They have two tough opponents, but as we saw this past Saturday, they can score and should be competitive. West Virginia almost pulled out a victory against Oklahoma, but they can rest easy knowing Kansas is still on the schedule though it is shocking that they are still not eligible given how their season started. Iowa State, on the other hand, reached six wins and is now bowl eligible.

Big East

Eligible Teams:

Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse

On the Cusp:

None

Still a Shot:

Pittsburgh (Rutgers and South Florida)

Analysis:

Look at Syracuse! Following a big win against Louisville, they followed that up by defeating Missouri to become bowl eligible. Pittsburgh was off, so I will keep them on the list, but they have a tough game this week. If they can get past Rutgers, their chances look good against South Florida.

Conference USA

Eligible Teams:

UCF, East Carolina and Tulsa

On the Cusp:

SMU (Tulsa)

Rice (UTEP)

Marshall (East Carolina)

Analysis:

Rice beat SMU to set up a big game against UTEP – win that, and they likely go to a bowl game. SMU has a tougher challenge against Tulsa this week. Marshall beat Houston, knocking them out of bowl contention, but like SMU, have a tough test against East Carolina. If all three can win this weekend, the C-USA will have six bowl eligible teams.

Independents

Eligible Teams:

BYU, Notre Dame and Navy

On the Cusp:

None

Analysis:

Nothing changed for the Independents – wait – scratch that. Notre Dame easily took down Wake Forest and are now in line to reach the BCS Championship after Kansas State and Oregon lost.

Arkansas and Tennessee lost eliminating both schools from bowl contention. Dooley was immediately fired and I think we can expect that John L. Smith will gone as well. Mississippi and Missouri also lost, but they each have one game remaining. I do not expect either to win, however, which would close the SEC with eight eligible teams.

Sun Belt

Eligible Teams:

Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State and
Western Kentucky

On the Cusp:

Troy (Middle Tennessee State)

Analysis:

Louisiana-Lafayette became bowl eligible by beating Western Kentucky. Troy did not win leaving them with one more chance to reach the post season.

WAC

Eligible Teams:

Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State

On the Cusp:

None

Analysis:

When it comes to bowl eligibility, the WAC is already set.

Final Analysis

Of the 70 slots available, 62 teams have already qualified. I have a further 13 teams listed as On the Cusp. There is still a good chance that there will be enough eligible teams available, though only Pittsburgh remains on my Still a Shot list. Last week, I predicted that the following schools would become bowl eligible after the past weekend:

Five out of seven – not terrible. With Miami taking a bowl ban this year, the remaining bowl games are itching to see more teams become eligible. I believe the following teams will become bowl eligible this week:

Central Michigan
Michigan State
Purdue
Rice
Virginia Tech

If correct, that would leave three spots still available to fill up all the bowl games. Three teams play after this week: Pittsburgh (if they win this week), West Virginia and Baylor. Only West Virginia looks like a sure thing. As a result, if my predictions are accurate, there is the potential for a shortage of bowl eligible teams. I will look at this further in next week’s edition.

Georgia Tech is in an unenviable position. They play Georgia this week and then Florida State in the ACC Championship. If they lose both, falling to 6-7, then technically they will not be bow eligible. They will have to hope there are not enough bowl eligible teams.

petitioned and received a waiver last Nov. 30 in case they were to end up 6-7. As pointed out earlier on the board, though, there are new rules in place for this year, with 6 tiers of letting other teams be bowl eligible if there are not enough teams with .500 records - link.

I want to see ND lose, and have Bama, Florida, Oregon, KSU, ND, and Clemson all end up with one loss. Then, of course, Bama and Florida will play for the "championship," and maybe, finally, everyone else in football will get pissed off enough to do something about the joke of a system they have right now.

If it continues as planned, it will just be a beauty contest to find four teams instead of two. If they can't make it champions only with eight teams, then I hope that today's expansion news is the beginning of a 4 X 16 major conference plan.