Lynch nomination a cliffhanger

Just days before her nomination as attorney general goes to the Senate floor, Loretta Lynch is stubbornly stuck right around 50 votes — suggesting a confirmation fight the Obama administration once seemed certain to win with relative ease will go down to the wire.

Barring an 11th-hour surprise, Lynch is likely to be confirmed. But with four GOP senators currently backing her along with unanimous support from Senate Democrats, Lynch would secure the bare minimum required to be installed as the nation’s top cop – as long as senators hauled in Vice President Joe Biden to break a tie.

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Several Republican senators who could have been potential “yes” votes are signaling ahead of the confirmation vote that that they will instead vote against her. The overwhelming bloc of opposition from Republicans stems from President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration, and Lynch’s confirmation is also plagued with remnants of congressional Republicans’ toxic relations with current attorney general Eric Holder.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said when he met with Lynch more than two months ago, he asked the federal prosecutor to lay out how the Justice Department’s agenda would differ than that of Holder, who’s led the Justice Department since 2009.

“She told me it would not be different,” Burr recalled of his conversation with the nominee. “I voted against Eric Holder and he’s lived up to exactly what I thought he would.”

But Lynch, who would be the first black woman to lead the Justice Department, is drawing potential opposition on other issues. Republican Sen. Dean Heller said in an interview that he is “leaning no” on the confirmation vote expected next week, a view that is based on Lynch’s answers to his concerns about how to regulate gambling.The Nevada senator said Lynch’s responses to a letter he sent following up on the issue left him “not very comfortable.”

“She said she has very little knowledge of what occurred in the Wire Act,” a 1961 law that banned certain types of interstate gambling, Heller said. “And yet at the same time, she prosecuted illegal gambling, offshore gambling. You can’t be prosecuting illegal gambling and say you have very little knowledge of the Wire Act itself.”

The confirmation showdown is set for next week. Senate Majority Leader McConnell hasn’t indicated how he will vote, though two members of his leadership team – Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas and Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, the fifth-ranking Republican – are confirmed “no” votes.

Senate Republicans who are backing her are Orrin Hatch of Utah, Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine.

Democrats have argued that Republicans’ anger over Obama’s executive actions on immigration – which would halt deportations and give work permits for more than 4 million immigrants here illegally – shouldn’t be a factor in whether or not to confirm Lynch. She said during her confirmation hearing in January that she believes the presidential directives are legal.

But that hasn’t swayed Republican senators, who say they were troubled by her stance on the immigration matter.

Her supporters have also highlighted that Lynch, currently the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York who was nominated as attorney general in November, has had to wait longer than any person to be confirmed to lead the Justice Department.

Part of the reason Lynch has had to wait for more than five months is because Democrats chose to not jam her nomination through the last two months of Democratic control of the Senate late last year. But Lynch has also had to wait longer than other attorney general nominees to get a floor vote once they cleared the Judiciary Committee.

For example, Janet Reno’s nomination went to the Senate floor one day after the committee vote. It took the nomination of John Ashcroft two days, Alberto Gonzalez waited eight days, and Michael Mukasey took two days. Holder’s nomination went from a committee vote to floor vote in five days.

For Lynch, the lag is 14 days and counting.

“Ms. Lynch’s nomination has broad support from Democrats and Republicans across the legal and law enforcement communities – so there is no excuse” for the wait, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) said this week. “She should not be treated any differently than previous nominees.

Some Republicans said while they were undecided, Lynch’s comments on immigration would likely be a factor in making up their mind.

“I think that’s a big issue,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who has yet to decide, said about the executive actions. “I think that’ll weigh in on the decision that I would make, too.”

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), another swing vote, added: “I have concerns over what she said about the executive order, but I’d really like to meet with her.”

Other undecided Republican senators include Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker of Tennessee. Both men have shown varying levels of unease with Lynch’s nomination.

Alexander told POLITICO two weeks ago that he was “deeply concerned about her refusal to put limits on the president’s executive power.” And when Corker met with Lynch late last year, he had some questions for her on the issue of selective enforcement — when officials exercise discretion on law enforcement — and he noted at the time that he felt her answers could “use some sharpening.”

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) met with Lynch recently and while he is undecided, he indicated that he was pleased with what he’s heard so far.

“I had a very good meeting with her,” Kirk said of his sit-down with Lynch, where the conversation revolved around federal efforts to combat gang violence. “She was very well prepared.”