The End of Fossil Energy and Per Capita Oil by John G Howe (5th Ed)covers updates to the book as well as other related material regarding the imminent global energy crisis.
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Thursday, 30 January 2014

Many
of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the
last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that
the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of
resolution In fact, to some of us it looks as though there is no way
to resolve this deepening crisis. The end of the track is in sight. The
planetary factory is in flames, and all the exit doors are barred.

Proposed
technical solutions are utterly inadequate to the scale of the problem.
Many ideas like geoengineering will simply make matters worse. There
is no political constituency for degrowth – none at all. There is
precious little political support for even putting a light foot on the
brake. This road to Hell has been paved with the very best of
intentions – giving our children a better life stands near the top of
the list – but here we are nonetheless. The climate is signalling that
our future may be a little warmer than we were expecting, once our
seven-billion-passenger train passes those gates.

Now
that the denouement is in sight, I’m setting aside the anger and
outrage, the blame and shame, to focus my attention instead on why this
outcome seems to have been utterly inevitable and unstoppable.

Why
has this happened? I don’t buy the traditional “broken morality” or
“flawed genetics” arguments. After all, our genetics seemed to be
perfectly appropriate for a million years, and the elements of morality
that some of us see as sub-optimal (the greed and shortsightedness) have
been with us to varying degrees since before the days of
Australopithecus. I don’t think it’s just a mistake on our part or a bug
in the program – it appears to be a part of the program of life itself.
It looks to me as though much deeper forces have been at work
throughout human history, and have shaped this outcome.

The
main difficulty I have with all the technical, political, economic and
social reform proposals I've seen is that they run counter to some very
deep-seated aspects of human behavior and decision-making. Mainly, they
assume that human intelligence and analytical ability control our
behavior, and from what I've seen, that’s simply not true. In fact it’s
untrue to such an extent that I don’t even think it’s a “human” issue
per se.

I
have come to think that most of our collective choices and actions are
shaped by physical forces so deep that they can’t even be called
“genetic”. I haven’t written anything definitive about this yet, but
the conclusion I have come to in the last six months is that a physical
principle called the "Maximum Entropy Production Principle”, which is
closely related to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, actually underlies
the structure of life itself. Its operation has shaped the
energy-seeking, replicative behavior of everything from bacteria to
humans. All our intelligence does is makes its operation more
effective.

This
principle is behind the appearance of life in the first place, has
guided the development of genetic replication and natural selection, and
has embedded itself in our behavior at the very deepest level. Like all
life, our mandate is simple: survive and reproduce so as to form a
metastable dissipative structure. All of human behavior and history has
been oriented towards executing this mandate as effectively as
possible. This “survive and reproduce” program springs from a universal
law of physics, much like gravity. As a result it even precedes
genetics as a driver of human behavior. And lest there be any lingering
doubt about the connection to our current predicament, the survival
imperative is what causes all living organisms to exhibit energy-seeking
behavior. Humans just do this better than any other organism in the
history of the planet because of our intelligence.

In
this context, the evolutionary fitness role of human intelligence is to
act as a limit-removal mechanism, to circumvent any obstacles in the
way of making make our growth in terms of energy use and reproduction
more effective. It’s why we are blind to the need for limits both as
individuals (in general) and collectively as cultures. We acknowledge
limits only when they are so close as to present an immediate
existential threat, as they were and are in hunter-gatherer societies.
As a result we tend to make hard changes only in response to a crisis,
not in advance of it. Basically, the goal of life is to live rather
than die, and to do this it must grow rather than shrink. This
imperative governs everything we think and do.

As
a result, I don’t think humanity in general will put any kind of
sustainability practices in place until long after they are actually
needed (i.e. after population and consumption rates have begun to
crash). I don’t think it is possible for a group as large as 7 billion
people to agree that such proactive measures are necessary. We are as
blind to the need for limits as a fish is to water and for similar
reasons. After the crisis has incontrovertibly begun we’ll do all kinds
of things, but by then we will be hampered by the climate crisis and by
severe shortages of both resources and the technology needed to use
them.

I
have given up speculating on possible outcomes, because they are so
inherently unpredictable, at least in detail. But what I’m discovering
about the way life works at a deep level makes me continually less
optimistic. I now think near-term human extinction (say within the next
hundred years) has a significantly non-zero probability.

Our cybernetic civilization is approaching a "Kardashev Type 0/1 boundary"
and I don’t think it's possible for us to make the jump to Type 1.
Like most other people, Kardashev misunderstood the underlying drivers
of human behavior, assuming them to be a combination of ingenuity and
free will. We indeed have ingenuity, but only in the direction of
growth (and damn the entropic consequences). We can’t manage preemptive
de-growth or even the application of the Precautionary Principle,
because as a collective organism humanity doesn't actually have free
will (despite what it feels like to us individual humans). Instead we
exhibit an emergent behavior that is entirely oriented towards growth.

I
see no purpose in wasting further physical, financial or emotional
energy on trying to avoid the inevitable. Given our situation and what I
think is its root cause, I generally tell people who see the unfolding
crisis and want to make changes in their lives simply to follow their
hearts and their personal values. I'm not exactly advising them to
“Eat, drink and be merry”, though. You might think of it more as, “Eat, drink and be mindful.”Paul Chefurka

August,2013

Ottawa,Canada

Comments:

We
struggle to explain why the conventional economic doctrine battles the
realities of existential economic science; the first hypothesizes an
infinite
positive sum-game for human activity, while the latter goes begging to
find an wider audience for its voice - that asserts a finite negative
sum-game, dictated by
the physical constraints and the laws of exponential mathematics. These
two beliefs are
deeply conflicting with one another because the first chooses to ignore
the governing
rules of the universe, whereas the other proposes integration with
science,
physics and mathematics, in order to set a better path for human
activity.

So in
our search for explanations we look to other writers, scholars, thinkers and
activists for insights into why our collective actions and theories act in
defiance of realities by endorsing infinite growth doctrines that are not only
impossible to continue any longer, but they also push our species along an accelerated
path destined for premature extinction.

As
Paul
Chefurka sets out in “Paradise Lost” maybe there is nothing to be done
or anything else that
can be said. Our internal wiring is so connected to the natural forces
of the
universe that it causes us to pursue and use more energy to serve our
primary purposes
of survival and procreation. Call it an inborn energy-seeking behavior.
We are then just an integral natural part of the second law of
thermodynamics serving to further
and accelerate the causes of entropy in the whole universe. That being
the case, conventional economic doctrines sadly wins the battle, as it
is clearly aligned with entropic
forces that invisibly shapes the destiny of humanity, the universe and
eternity.Hence
in our last analysis, it as certain as it gets that we cannot defeat
eternity, but that in itself should not dissuade us from seeking to
optimize our entropic relationship with the universe in pursuit of a
longer path. Too many things could happen along the way!

Sunday, 12 January 2014

For sure the first thing we have to do is get the metrics right so that we can properly diagnose, manage and remedy, if possible, our population predicament.

To do so, we must first understand that this is not about population numbers at all. Rather it is all about "population equivalents," but so long as the focus remains on person numbers, then we are doomed to head down the wrong path with little hope of finding a cure. In the end, you cannot remove a brain tumor by doing a heart transplant - it is just not going to happen.

There is no responsible economic organization or entity on this planet that does not have an accounting system with metrics to determine, monitor and control its status. So there is no good reason as to why we should not work towards and apply similar concepts for the whole planet as an initial way to get a handle on our planet's overall situation. As a metric - "population equivalents" is a fairly straightforward mathematical concept to apply as the prime unit of measure within this overall planetary accounting system.

Population equivalents should firstly allow us to start comparing apples to apples and not to pears, turnips and potatoes. For example, when the entropic/climate/resource footprint for each developed nation person is estimated to be 34 times larger than a underdeveloped nation's person - this comparison shows a huge gap in the annual-planetary cost between these two person types to the planet. The implications of this difference needs to be better understood and managed based on objectives. As a medical professional you might start with an old idea and goal like - LONGEVITY!

Now consider the case when 100 million people migrate annually from these underdeveloped nations to developed countries. That migration alone has the equivalent impact of adding 3.4 billion people to the underdeveloped nations population totals. Or you could also say it is equal to the birth of 3.4 billion people in these underdeveloped countries.

Put in another way - the 1 billion people footprint of developed nations calculates to an equivalent 34 billion people footprint in underdeveloped countries. Thus, the planet's population size using approximate actual numbers could be considered closer to 40 billion people when population equivalent footprint measures are used.(1 billion developed plus, 6 billion underdeveloped people)

BIG number? But now you be the doctor and tell the patient where you think the problem is - Heart or Brain?

So in order to get things right, we first and foremost need to start measuring properly. Moreover, it is a "conceptual technology" that has been well-developed by the medical profession, among others, over many years. So why not apply it to the most important patient we know?

In short, we need to go beyond checking the patient's brain condition based on its pulse rate and advance ourselves to using proper clinical metrics and devices to better diagnose and remedy our sickly patient. In so doing, we may then stand an improved chance of extending its life.

Global Digest Comments "In just a few short decades life on earth has changed dramatically. For in 1961 regimes were building w...

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About the Author - John G Howe

John G. Howe is a retired engineer/farmer. He has been a long-time student of energy problems and is presently lecturing on this subject. Having become so concerned about the world's looming energy crisis, Howe felt compelled to summarize this complex subject into a book in order to reach a broader world audience. His New England Yankee-farmer background combined with his engineering education gives honest appraisals and solutions for a sustainable future.