The Ersan Ilyasova market is heating up or PLEASE SOMEONE ELSE MAKE A BIG OFFER

Ersan Ilyasova could be fighting for the Raptors ... or Cavs ... or Nets next season. (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

Various reports have the Milwaukee Bucks are pretty serious about keeping Ersan Ilyasova and the previously quiet market for the free agent getting pretty active.

Wednesday morning, Gery Woelfel tweeted that the Bucks had offered their power forward a five-year deal. Wednesday afternoon, Adrian Wojnarowski followed up, confirming that the Bucks had offered Ilyasova a five-year deal worth nearly $40 million. Wojnarowski also notes that the Brooklyn Nets are very interested in Ilyasova as a backup plan to Dwight Howard. Furthermore, he wrote that Ilyasova has two visits lined up this week with teams flush with space under the salary cap, the Cavs being one.

To think, it seemed like the market for Ilyasova had quieted down just a few days ago. When Howard looked like he could be on the way to the Nets and Steve Nash was a real possibility in Toronto, it looked like maybe Europe and the Cavs were the Bucks only real competitors. But the Howard situation is more fluid than water itself, so the door has opened back up in Brooklyn and Nash has made Los Angeles his new home, giving the Raptors some cap space and adding another team into the Ilyasova mix.

The Bucks do hold one significant advantage over all other Ilyasova suitors (minus the European teams): The fifth year. Milwaukee is the only team that can offer Ilyasova a five-year contract and the Bucks have apparently used that to their advantage in negotiations. But there’s a question that probably needs to be asked about right now:

Would a really good team sign Ilyasova to a deal paying him $8 million annually for more than three years?

For all that he did last year, Ilyasova still isn’t an elite NBA player. He’s better than your average role player and he’s better than a lot of players the Bucks have had over the years, but he’s more of a corner piece to the puzzle, not one of those juice middle pieces that help you really figure things out. Overpaying players like Ilyasova is often what limits a team’s ceiling to a first round playoff exit. Flexibility is compromised and salary structure makes little sense.

The best teams have a certain pattern in how they are built: They get meaningful minutes from cheap role players — many of those are on rookie contracts. The best teams, by and large, pay their top three players vastly more than $5 million each a season. If their fourth-best player makes more than $5 million a year, though, chances are the team would love to ditch that guy.

He cites the Lakers and Thunder as examples. Those teams don’t mind paying their three best players, but paying Ron Artest and Kendrick Perkins $7 million is a decision each might like to take back.

And if you’re already getting ready to tell me about how Ilysaova is the Bucks third best player, I’ll quickly let you know that’s actually what the Bucks problem is right now. Being the third best player on a team that’s fallen short of the playoffs the last two years isn’t all that impressive. It’s probably worth pointing out here too that, in his best season ever, Ilyasova played 14 minutes in the Bucks most important game last season. Yeah, this dude is irreplaceable.

The Bucks have been here before too.

Remember Dan Gadzuric? He’s a laughingstock now, but the team said a lot of things when they resigned him that they’ll undoubtedly say again if they resign Ilyasova. Someone will note that Ilyasova had 20 double-doubles last season. Gadz had 19 the season before he was resigend. Someone will talk about how Ilyasova is young and developing. Gadz was just two years older than Ilyasova when he was resigned. Both had a career season before free agency hit.

But I get that Gadz isn’t the most accurate comparison. He was kind of bumbling and was resigned more as a backup than a starter. What’s that? Drew Gooden is probably going to start at the four for the Bucks next season? Oh. But still – not the best comparison, Gadz had more years on his deal. Fine.

In the summer of 2009, the Bucks were looking to fix their books. They didn’t want to take on big contracts. Financial stability was the idea and the team looked like it wanted to do a complete rebuild from the ground up.

Charlie Villanueva, fresh off a stellar season in which he shot the lights out from 3-point range and hit the glass with an aggressiveness not previously seen, signed a five-year, $40 million offer sheet with the Detroit Pistons. The Bucks declined to match, citing the luxury tax implications and roster flexibility concerns. At 24-years-old, some probably felt like the deal was reasonable. But Chuck V. wasn’t anything more than an okay starter. He wasn’t a superstar, he wasn’t going to be an All-Star even if he developed a bit more. After three years of that deal, the Pistons are looking into amnestying Chuck V., eating the deal and sending him on his way.

Sure, Ilyasova gives an effort every night that Villanueva could never approach and he’s a much better rebounder, but he has even less of a track record of consistency than Villanueva did at the time of his deal. The Bucks kind of did the right thing with Villanueva – the best move would have been to abandon those silly playoff hopes that season and trade him for a pick of some kind at the deadline, but I digress – and let him go. They didn’t overpay.

At least not until the next off-season when the team outbid themselves and nabbed Drew Gooden with a five-year, $32 million deal.

Frankly, I can’t remember the last time the Bucks signed a non-star player to a five-year deal and came out happy about it on the other end. The best reward they’ve gotten back was Andrew Bogut.

Save the five-year deals for superstars and rookies and focus on locking up role players for a year or two. No one will complain about Mike Dunleavy Jr. when this season is over. Just like no one is complaining now about Hakim Warrick or Kurt Thomas or Jerry Stackhouse or Keyon Dooling. They were all moved for assets or moved on. No harm done.

But hey, maybe Ilyasova will be worth a win or two and the Bucks can sneak into the final playoff spot. Maybe they’ll even hang a Mission Accomplished banner outside the Cousins Center.

65 Comments

How can you compare Illyasova to Dan Gaduric?! Two totally different players. Gadz = horrible Sova = best shooter the bucks currently have. The only thing Illyasova does that Gadz did is hustle. He’s the only Buck on the team worth 5 years 40-million. Everyone else, disposable. Do you want to save the 5 year deal for someone like Larry Sanders or to extend Drew Gooden’s contract even further than it is (dont get me started with Gooden)? I think it was pretty obvious Illyasova won’t accept the deal. Last summer he was trying to get out of his at then current contract. I don’t think he likes playing with Jennings. Jennings always seemed to have an attitude with Illyasova, especially the 2010-11 season. Adios Sova

@AaronWilson1 I wasn’t comparing them as players, but as assets when their contracts expired. It’s more holistic. Also – Ilyasova shot less than 30% from three just two years ago. No one seems to want to talk about this. Not resigning Ilyasova doesn’t mean the money for him has to be spent elsewhere. It can just be held onto for future flexibility.

@jeremyschmidt @AaronWilson1 The deal itself is a good comparison to Gadzuric…and the potential danger it could possess (not that I think Ersan could be a mega bust like Dan G., but we are ONLY going off of an amazing half season…fluke? or for real? …In my opinion its not worth 40/50 million to find out.

@MatthewSchwendinger @jeremyschmidt @AaronWilson1 Ersan had some fantastic games, but he was missing or shut down on some important games also. I would like to see him back in a Bucks uni, but at $10M per for FIVE YEARS? It’s the term that is sending shivers down our spines!

@MatthewSchwendinger @PattiRafalskiDavison here’s to hoping that European team wins the bid so we don’t have to match.. what I can’t understand is every team is designating him as a backup forward(even us)?.. is it even normal pursue a backup for $40 million?

This article is spot on. I was really hoping the Bucks would trade Ersan last year at the deadline and get something for him. As it stands now, I would rather get nothing for him than be locked into five years at 8 million a season. It doesn’t make sense to lock up your third best player when you don’t have the best and second best players figured out yet. Brandon Jennings cannot be the best player on a championship team (he probably can’t be the second best player either). Third best seems about right for him. Ellis seems like a three as well. If the Bucks keep chasing after parts and never get a superstar, they will never be any more than playoff fodder. Having cap flexibility is crucial. Being willing and able to take another teams bad contract for a year of two in exchange for a draft pick can only help the Bucks chances of landing a superstar in the draft. The Bobcats picked up Ben Gordan’s horrible contract and a first round pick for Magette’s horrible contract. Their ability to absorb Gordan’s deal may result in a lottery pick in a couple years (the pick is lottery protected this season). I would like to see Hammond make more moves like that than constantly trying to patch a flawed roster.

@MatthewSchwendinger He could be signed and traded, yes, but only to a four year deal. There isn’t much point for him to be traded elsewhere, unless that team doesn’t have cap space and wants to give up assets for him.

Besides being signed to a ridiculous amount of money, the other thing worth noting is how clogged we are at the PF position as it is. Sanders, Udoh, Gooden, and Henson, not to mention that Mbah a Moute is only truly effective at the PF spot. So unless there are trades lined up for after we re-sign Ilyasova, I don’t see how this makes any sense.

I think Mikhail Prokhorov is true to his interntion that he want the nets to be an nba champion in five years. So first thing he does is to make it a contender by signing superstars. Brooklyn now is blessed to have an nba team on their place.

Illyasova is a hot name on the rumors page at ESPN right now… Apparently seeking more than the Bucks are offering and appearing to be able to get it. I hate to say it, but looks like our boy is all grown up and wants to move out.

jeremyschmidt
Who was the third best player on the Mavericks a year ago? How much better was that person than Ers? I wager not much. I think you are really discounting the value of team chemistry. I can’t say signing Ers to this contract isn’t a risk, but i know that you are simplifying things by thinking that it is all about star players. Last yeat the bucks were a decent center away from being equal to or better than the Knicks who have 2, maybe 3 legitimate “stars” (if you count Chandler).
The Heat are the best team in the league not just because of the extremely talented big 3, they also play very well together and have solid role players. The Mavericks won the title a year ago because of great team play and a very solid interior D. The bucks are developing a very solid core of competent and athletic players and a strong interior presence. They could be in the mix with 1 legitimate star. Even if we sign Ers, we will have the cap space/assets to pursue such a star wing or forward through a 2013 trade/free agency. You are being more of a pessimist than a realist.
Also, Ers ceiling is much higher than Gadz was ever percieved to be. Sure both players are a little less than fluid and rely heavily on hustling, but Ers is by far more refined and really has all of the intangibles aside from confidence (which he is developing). His value in spreading the floor cannot be undervalued, and its a match-up trait that the other PFs on the team dont offer. He honestly could be an all-star, something that would never be projected for Gadz even after his best year. Based on his drive and character it seems likely that he will continue to improve especially while playing alongside a legitmate center.

jeremyschmidt
Who was the third best player on the Mavericks a year ago? How much better was that person than Ers? I wager not much. I think you are really discounting the value of team chemistry. I can’t say signing Ers to this contract isn’t a risk, but i know that you are simplifying things by thinking that it is all about star players. Last yeat the bucks were a decent center away from being equal to or better than the Knicks who have 2, maybe 3 legitimate “stars” (if you count Chandler).
The Heat are the best team in the league not just because of the extremely talented big 3, they also play very well together and have solid role players. The Mavericks won the title a year ago because of great team play and a very solid interior D. The bucks are developing a very solid core of competent and athletic players and a strong interior presence. They could be in the mix with 1 legitimate star. Even if we sign Ers, we will have the cap space/assets to pursue such a star wing or forward through a 2013 trade/free agency. You are being more of a pessimist than a realist.

@sillybilly They have Dirk.. we don’t have Dirk.. name one star that was either in/near his prime that signed with the Bucks as a free agent in the last 20 years.. we have to build the old fashioned way

@JustinNixon
haha, we drafted Dirk which is proof enough that we can get a player like him. It wasn’t even a top 5 pick either. I just think this blog has become a little too negative about the bucks in general. It is probably a 50-50 split amongst fans between the blow it up vs. stay competetive strategy. I contend that we could build a contender while remaining competetive every year.

spurs, Jazz. have each been competetive/contenders streaks lasting a decade….Im not saying its likely but the reality is that just as many fans are in favor of that attempted path to success as are in favor of cleaning house for the sake to try to get stars. The majority of teams that tear it all down dont secceed either….

@jeremyschmidt What’s funny about that is that their team is technically built the old fashioned way.. Kobe and Andrew were drafted and Pau was traded for(Artest was the big free agent).. honestly they really haven’t attracted a premium all-star free agent since Shaq.. but once he was there people flocked

@sillybilly @JustinNixon
The key is getting a player like Dirk. We won’t get a player of that caliber in free agency, it must be through the draft. True, Dirk was drafted #10 overall and Paul Pierce was still on the board as well, so elite players are available in the middle part of the first round, but for every one superstar you find drafted #10-20, I could name five drafted #1-5. Keeping roster flexibility is the key for Milwaukee. If the Bucks can take on another team’s headache for a year or two and get a first round pick for the trouble, that increases the chances of getting an elite talent through the draft. If that happens, the Bucks have about four years to assemble a quality team around him. Best case scenario: Kevin Durant. Worst case: LeBron James.

Yea that is true, we dont have that cornerstone superstar….. but you know the spurs have remained very strong despite a decline in play from duncan (yea he’s still good tho). I cant think of a team that was solid and then acquired that allstar player to take them over the hump, but i think it can be done if you have a team with trade assets, or are competetive enough to attract someone. The Bucks COULD fit those descriptors. A lot of this is based on luck and talent evaluation, when your management thinks Tractor Traylor has more potential than Dirk Nowitzki then you have a problem.

Similarly the Pacers dont really have that big star either, but they have an attractive team in place that possibly could attract one, or they could pony up the right guys through a trade for one…

@sillybilly While the Spurs do have a declining Tim Duncan, they also have a very underrated Tony Parker and, when healthy, a very effective scorer in Manu. That being said, while the Spurs have been competitive for over a decade, they haven’t won a title since Duncan was at the top of his game. I, for one, want to see a run at the title and I don’t care if we have to suffer through a few tough seasons to get there (ten of the last twelve have been pretty awful anyway).

The Pacers are one of the few teams that have won without anyone who you would consider a superstar (Granger isn’t even really an all-star). But how close are they to a title? When they played the Heat, and Bron started to take over, they had no answer. If they want to keep their above average, but not good enough to make a serious title run team together, they will have to pony up a max contract for Hibbert which will prohibit them from making any sort of a run at a superstar. If they were smart, they would let Hibbert walk, but they’ll be pressured by fans and media to keep their “all star” center and assure themselves of middle of the first round draft picks for the next five years until all their young players are no longer on rookie contracts and either go to other teams or the Pacers overpay them too.

@sillybilly Redd was a second rounder as well. It was not my intent to imply that good and even great players can’t be had later in the draft, but the chances of that happening go way down. Bron, Wade, Anthony, Durant, Howard, etc are the top players in the league and all were drafted high in the lottery. I think you also need to consider when Parker and Manu were drafted. The Spurs were way ahead of the curve when it came to drafted international players in the early 2000’s. Today, It is doubtful either guy slips that far. All that being said, I would be thrilled to have had the decade plus of success the Spurs have had.

@sillybilly Mavericks had Dirk, a top 10 player in the league. When the Bucks get a top-10 player, they can start working on the spare parts. No star will be coming via free agency, there will be no “luring.” What I’m saying the only way to realistically get a star is to get assets or get a good draft pick. Ersan at five years, isn’t an asset any more. Teams aren’t trading stars for long contracts.

@jeremyschmidt
…but we did draft Dirk, at something like #9 proving it isnt impossible.
Ersan is an asset as a teammate not as a trade.

So despite the fact that we are talking about Milwaukee, am I completely off base in thinking that a solid team in combination with a strong contract offer could not potentially lure in a star during an upcoming offseason?

@sillybilly @jeremyschmidt
Completely off base, yes. In today’s NBA, stars want to play with stars (it could be argued that stars need to play with stars). Dwight Howard isn’t coming to Milwaukee for the chance to play with Ersan. Neither is Chris Paul or any other big name free agent next season. If the Bucks had won the lottery and drafted the Unibrow, and he had a phenomenal rookie year, and Jennings continued his improvement, and Ellis decided to extend, then a superstar might come to Milwaukee knowing that he has one other star to play with and two very solid complimentary players. The thing is, role players in the NBA are a dime a dozen, but the GMs pay them 8 million a year anyway. You can always add a piece like Ersan because teams always overpay them and are almost always looking to unload their horrible contracts. Get the star first and then add the role players – not the other way around.

@sillybilly Yes. Tell me the last free agent that changed teams and won a title before the Lebron thing? Free agents don’t make title teams as far as superstars go. The Lebron thing was crazy because it was based solely on location/friendship/blahblahblah

@jeremyschmidt @sillybilly Jeremy
Do you think the LeBron thing is a one time deal, or do you believe that this is how NBA champs will be built for the foreseeable future? Gut your team, sign two or three superstars, fill in role players/vets chasing a ring and hope for the best. It seems like both NY teams are attempting this, although their superstars aren’t quite as starry as Miami’s.

You know you guys are probably right that it is a long shot for the bucks as currently constructed to obtain the needed star thru either draft and free agency….

But blowing it up to get the right star isnt a sure thing either, a good prospect for that method could be a middling playoff team that we have now. I like players like Ersan, Jennings, and Henson. I like the fact that they are an underdog squad and cheer for them because of it. To me it is a worthwhile risk to hope that we can obtain the right piece in the middle of the draft, or making a modest trade up, all while developing a strong team that is fun to watch and root for. To be honest, I dont really know how stoked I would be if the Bucks got Lebron James, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Durant all on the same team. Its just not as fun. And many bucks fans share that sentiment.

@sillybilly I respect how you feel man. I don’t have all the answers, even though I write like I do. So if it works out that they do things your way and there is some success, that would be cool. I’m just saying how I feel, but I really appreciate you having another opinion and having some reason and backing it up and being civil all the while.

@sillybilly I know what you’re saying. I love to see guys start their career here and watch them grow and develop (Ray Allen, Big Dog). To bring in hired guns does seem to cheapen the victories a bit, although I must admit I can’t tell you how jacked I was when the Packers signed Reggie White. Maybe it’s different with football.

@BuckNuggets
Yea I think with all of the big 3s and 4s out there being bought and paid for it will become pretty clear in the next few seasons whether a more organic way to build a team can work for the smaller markets.

It is clear in the NFL that player evaluation and coaching/development are much more important than the team’s market size or the ability to lure in huge stars. This has become pretty apparent with the consistent success of teams like New England, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay. The NBA is a totally different game but I still think making good evaluations on free agents and draft picks, and being to develop them (a la Andrew Bynum) is important to some extent. This is why I still hold out hope for the Bucks, but I’m probably delusional.

@sillybilly Actually, Milwaukee NEVER drafter Dirk. Bucks traded their #9 and #17 picks for Dallas #6. Dirk was still available when we picked at #6, but our agreement with Dallas would have prohibited us from drafting Dirk. Bravo to Dallas for drafting Dirk, but it was never an option for Bucks. Had we not made trade, Dallas would have picked Dirk with their #6. End of story.

Dirk was picked #9 and the Bucks traded he and 3 point shooter Pat Garrity fo Traylor. Most people (including my stupid self) thought the Bucks were getting the better deal at the time because we had no idea who Dirk Nowitzki was. And c’mon, who had ever heard of a German being good at basketball Hahaha

@sillybilly actually hate to tell ya you are wrong.. the Bucks wanted Traylor the whole time so they worked out a deal with the Mavs pre-draft to protect the pick.. we were picking for them at #9.. Don Nelson was famous for international scouting and we didn’t have the resources like we do now

Courtside analyst did this story earlier this year.. Just Google “Bucks never had Nowitzki”

Ers is a very good player. They say you have to earn your contract and he earned his. We look at what other players make and try to make value for someone else and that’s impossible. His value in Milwaukee is $8 million. It would vary for the player. We need him and he is a very good up and coming player. Are you guys saying Lin deserves more then him. Fact of the matter is he helped us win games. We need to improve as a whole and stay healthy. What we pay a role player is not what loses games. Get real!

@jeremyschmidt
Who was the third best player on the Mavericks a year ago? How much better was that person than Ers? I wager not much. I think you are really discounting the value of team chemistry. I can’t say signing Ers to this contract isn’t a risk, but i know that you are simplifying things by thinking that it is all about star players. Last yeat the bucks were a decent center away from being equal to or better than the Knicks who have 2, maybe 3 legitimate “stars” (if you count Chandler).

The Heat are the best team in the league not just because of the extremely talented big 3, they also play very well together and have solid role players. The Mavericks won the title a year ago because of great team play and a very solid interior D. The bucks are developing a very solid core of competent and athletic players and a strong interior presence. They could be in the mix with 1 legitimate star. Even if we sign Ers, we will have the cap space/assets to pursue such a star wing or forward through a 2013 trade/free agency. You are being more of a pessimist than a realist.

Also, Ers ceiling is much higher than Gadz was ever percieved to be. Sure both players are a little less than fluid and rely heavily on hustling, but Ers is by far more refined and really has all of the intangibles aside from confidence (which he is developing). His value in spreading the floor cannot be undervalued, and its a match-up trait that the other PFs on the team dont offer. He honestly could be an all-star, something that would never be projected for Gadz even after his best year. Based on his drive and character it seems likely that he will continue to improve especially while playing alongside a legitmate center.

jeremyschmidt
Who was the third best player on the Mavericks a year ago? How much better was that person than Ers? I wager not much. I think you are really discounting the value of team chemistry. I can’t say signing Ers to this contract isn’t a risk, but i know that you are simplifying things by thinking that it is all about star players. Last yeat the bucks were a decent center away from being equal to or better than the Knicks who have 2, maybe 3 legitimate “stars” (if you count Chandler).

The Heat are the best team in the league not just because of the extremely talented big 3, they also play very well together and have solid role players. The Mavericks won the title a year ago because of great team play and a very solid interior D. The bucks are developing a very solid core of competent and athletic players and a strong interior presence. They could be in the mix with 1 legitimate star. Even if we sign Ers, we will have the cap space/assets to pursue such a star wing or forward through a 2013 trade/free agency. You are being more of a pessimist than a realist.

Also, Ers ceiling is much higher than Gadz was ever percieved to be. Sure both players are a little less than fluid and rely heavily on hustling, but Ers is by far more refined and really has all of the intangibles aside from confidence (which he is developing). His value in spreading the floor cannot be undervalued, and its a match-up trait that the other PFs on the team dont offer. He honestly could be an all-star, something that would never be projected for Gadz even after his best year. Based on his drive and character it seems likely that he will continue to improve especially while playing alongside a legitmate center.

Who was the third best player on the Mavericks a year ago? How much better was that person than Ers? I wager not much. I think you are really discounting the value of team chemistry. I can’t say signing Ers to this contract isn’t a risk, but i know that you are simplifying things by thinking that it is all about star players. Last yeat the bucks were a decent center away from being equal to or better than the Knicks who have 2, maybe 3 legitimate “stars” (if you count Chandler).
The Heat are the best team in the league not just because of the extremely talented big 3, they also play very well together and have solid role players. The Mavericks won the title a year ago because of great team play and a very solid interior D. The bucks are developing a very solid core of competent and athletic players and a strong interior presence. They could be in the mix with 1 legitimate star. Even if we sign Ers, we will have the cap space/assets to pursue such a star wing or forward through a 2013 trade/free agency. You are being more of a pessimist than a realist.

looks like the Blazers are facing the same problem with Batum right now.. Both Nic and Ers are guys that every team would be glad to have because of their efficiency and effort, but neither is consistent in what they bring nightly.. and that type of contract will ensure that we will not be competing for a high end star for a long time

On a different note still need a backup center, and another guard couldn’t hurt (see that Jerryd Bayless has become available)

Sounds like there is currently some interest in Carl Landry right now…I understand that he is a Milwaukee guy and sadly if he were to be signed that’s about as “high profile” a Free Agent as the Bucks can probably land, but it baffles me that they are seriously considering another PF.

Also heard there is interest in trying to sign Kwame Brown, Kirk Hinrich, and CJ Miles as well. I personally think Miles would make sense, there is a need for another 2/3 on the Bucks roster no doubt, Miles is a scorer and if he can be signed for cheap I’d consider that a good pickup.

As for Hinrich and Brown I dont really see how/why that would do anything to help, seems like the Point Guard minutes are locked up right now so unless Beno gets amnestied idk why the Bucks would waste the roster space. And speaking of a waste of roster space…Kwame Brown