Options for Ulster as assembly risks freefall

Just as the final goal seemed in sight for the embattled Northern Ireland peace process, it appears the government might have to call extra time with a tactical six week suspension to save the fledgling power-sharing government.

As London and Dublin struggle to translate the latest IRA move into a deal between unionists and republicans, the clock is ticking relentlessly toward Sunday, August 12, the date the Stormont assembly will go into freefall unless the Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble, can be re-elected first minister.

So what is likely to happen? Here we have a brief look at the options.

Scenario 1 Re-electing Trimble

Mr Trimble resigned as first minister on July 1, allowing a six week period up to August 12 during which he can resume his post if he feels he has backing from majorities of both nationalists and unionists in the assembly.

But even if he decided to support the Blair/Ahern peace blueprint, which he has said is unacceptable unless there is actual IRA decommissioning, he would have a stiff battle on his hands.

The assembly would have to be recalled by Saturday and support frantically canvassed. There are equal numbers of pro and anti-Good Friday agreement unionists at Stormont and at least two of his own Ulster Unionist assembly members have already indicated they would vote against him.

Non-aligned parties, such as the centrist Alliance and Women's Coalition, could re-designate themselves as unionists for the day, to help the process, but even then, Mr Trimble would lose credibility if he could not command the support of the majority of unionists.

In the face of the imminent collapse of the assembly, direct rule would resume from London, but the British government has a number of options to try to rejuvenate the devolved administration.

Scenario 2 Elections

The Northern Ireland secretary, John Reid, could call fresh elections for all 108 seats in the assembly, probably in the autumn.

Government sources claim this is the option favoured by Tony Blair, who thinks it is time to bring matters to a head.

The worry is, even given proportional representation, the pattern of gains for Ian Paisley's anti-agreement Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein in the Westminster and local council elections could be repeated, leaving the assembly more polarised and making it just as hard to elect new first and deputy first ministers.

Even if the Ulster Unionists and SDLP remained as the two largest parties, the stalemate would still be there, as the UUP has vowed it will not put forward a first minister unless the IRA started physically destroying its weapons.

While publicly all sides say they would not mind elections, privately even the parties which did well in June are loath to fight another so soon.

But if the two governments believe they have brought the process as far as they can there is an argument that elections would establish a realistic political landscape, should a fresh deal have to be struck.

Scenario 3 Suspension

The government is extremely reluctant to suspend the assembly in an apparent attempt to save Mr Trimble, particularly given the fierce criticism the former secretary of state, Peter Mandelson, faced when he did so in February last year. And there is no guarantee the institutions could be revived.

Rather than an open-ended freeze, Dr Reid might use a technicality in the legislation to suspend the assembly for just one day, which automatically gives another six weeks' breathing space.

It had been suggested this might be the opportunity for an independent chairman to review the peace process formally, or the governments might spend the time fine-tuning the timetable for demilitarisation and police changes in expectation that they could exchange this for a timetable on IRA decommissioning.

While Mr Trimble seems to think suspension is a probable option, and might prefer to sit tight in the hope of definitive IRA movement, hardliners, such as MPs Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside, feel the party has already paid too high a price in terms of concessions.

In June, they vowed to recall the UUP ruling council to reassess the situation this autumn, and they could try to force the party to withdraw completely from Stormont, or even challenge Mr Trimble's leadership should he show signs of shifting from the "No guns, no government" position.