The Optimist’s Case for the 2013 Takes Another Hit

I’ve had a fair number of conversations on Twitter with people who think the 2013 Mets have a reasonable prospect of contending. It essentially goes like this:

The pitching depth next year will make the starters a strength. The bullpen was worse than their peripherals, and are bound to bounce back. The offense was good, and the defense has to get better.

Now, I disagree with various points about this case. I’ve pointed out that both Dillon Gee and Johan Santana are coming back from season-ending injuries, and in both cases, those injuries stand a good chance of impacting their abilities to pitch full seasons in 2013. Santana is more an increasing collection of physical problems, while Gee’s blood clot likely came from repetitive motion, which is, after all, what pitching is.

If we take R.A. Dickey/Jon Niese/Matt Harvey as givens, which is not the case since pitchers are inherently susceptible to injuries, Dickey will be 38, and Harvey has eight career starts, the Mets still need either Gee/Santana to stay healthy, or need to find quality starts from a group of Collin McHugh/Jenrry Mejia/Jeurys Familia/Zack Wheeler. Asking any of the four to immediately step in and consistently deliver is asking a lot, for various reasons (limited upside of McHugh, innings issues and poor K-rate at Triple-A for Mejia, command problems for Familia, Wheeler yet to even master Triple-A). Asking two of the four to do so is the height of optimism.

But let’s leave that aside for a moment, and even accept the idea that the bullpen will automatically bounce back, and this seems to be the sum total of the argument, because. The difference between the bullpen’s ERA (4.75) and xFIP (4.33) is 18 runs, so let’s not get carried away by the effect a simple regression to the norm would provide.

Also? The offense is not a given. Period.

The Mets, following Sunday’s game, are 10th in the National League in runs scored. And they are 10th in the N.L. in OPS. In other words, that ability to outpace their relatively pedestrian OPS in the first half, thanks to clutch two-out hits, has disappeared, which makes sense. That’s not really a repeatable skill, while OPS is.

That ranking puts them slightly below league average in runs scored, and just ahead of the contending Pirates and Dodgers. Both teams, of course, have significantly better ERAs than the Mets do.

So if we understand that 10th in the NL is not an impossible place to be for offense to also contend, but a difficult one requiring significant improvement from the Mets on the pitching side, their task becomes far more apparent. Take away the 18 runs that separate the bullpen’s actual ERA from its expected ERA, and the pitching goes from slightly below league average to just above league average, but well shy of the pitching required to make up for a below-average offense. (Also, the Mets would give a couple of those runs back due to their starters slightly outpitching their xFIP, 3.81 real ERA to 3.87 xFIP.)

Let’s not forget that some of this gap isn’t luck; it is a poor defensive team. To really improve in 2013, the bullpen will also need to improve its core performance.

Where else do they make up ground? Is it realistic to expect Santana and Gee to pitch more than their combined 226 2/3 innings in 2012, or at a better ERA than 4.49? If they don’t, is it reasonable to expect McHugh/Mejia/Familia/Wheeler to come in and pitch at that level or better? The starts of Chris Young/Miguel Batista/Mike Pelfrey/McHugh/Chris Schwinden amount to 39 starts at an ERA of 4.77. It is probably a reasonable expectation for those four pitchers, in their first extended time as major league starters, to check in around that level of performance in 2013, and they could easily fall below that.

But please, remember this: the 2012 Mets got about a quarter of their starts from pitchers who didn’t make up the starting five for most of the year.

So really, the 2013 case revolves around the offense not merely being at the same level as 2012, but better. Or, alternatively, the defense improving, which would probably have to happen at the expense of the offense, given the low-cost players the Mets can bring in, and would have to happen via trade. The only place of depth for the Mets to trade from? The starting pitching they’ll need.

And who among the returning everyday players is likely to be much better than they were in 2012? Is David Wright a great bet to even match his 2012, given that he’s outperformed his career OPS+?

So the optimist’s case revolves around green pitchers making a large leap forward or a starting staff’s injured pitchers staying healthy all season, a bullpen not only regressing to the norm but also seeing an improved defense behind it or getting significantly better, and a below-average offense and terrible defense improving with a strong likelihood of returning the same players.

So if you’re keeping score at home, other than starting pitching, relief pitching, offense and defense, the 2013 Mets are ready to contend.

Howard Megdal is the Lead Writer for the LoHud Mets Blog and Writer At Large for Capital New York. He covers baseball, basketball, and soccer for these and numerous other publications. His new book, "Wilpon's Folly," is available as an e-book at Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble. Follow the LoHud Mets Blog on Twitter @lohudmets. Follow Howard on Twitter @HowardMegdal.

A pretty accurate assessment. Although I will point out that the Mets should have available money for at least one decent upgrade (Pelffrey, Torres and Ramirez make over $10M combined).

The problem is the Mets have more holes than that. This team was built with 2014 in mind from the start, and I don’t see that anything has changed. When Bay and Santana come off the books, Wheeler and the other pitchers are ready to make an impact, this team will be competitive. Not next year.

Great article Howard. We can hope and pray that some of the minor league hitters somehow become major-league ready and that Sandy makes some great trades, but I’m thinking that 2014 will be the year that the Mets have enough payroll flexibility to become contenders.

Howard, while many of your points are valid you have to take into account the success the A’s are having this season. They are contending for a wild card with basically the same formula. Young under control starting pitching that have been excellent this year with an offense that has been just as bad as ours for the most part in a worse hitting park than ours. Dickey, Niese, and Harvey are a great starting 3. Gee didn’t have elbow or shoulder surgery. He had a freakish blood clot that has been managed already so he should be fine. That leave you with hoping that Santana can give it one more year…a shot at another contract, 2 years removed from surgery. If not you have McHugh and possibly Wheeler as replacements. Still not bad. They have some lively young arms in Mejia, Familia, Carson, Edgin, to go along with Franscisco and a not very bad Rauch for a much improved pen. Yes this is all a very huge If and none of it may come to pass but if that pitching pitches up to its vast potential they could be serious contenders without much offensive punch.

the team meets AAA standards. Give it to Wally Backman and maybe it will be entertaining. Give it back to Terry Collins and Dan Warthen and you can run this column again next year. The only plan Sandy Aldersen is working on involves paying back the loan to Bud Selig.

The above lists represent candidates from within the organization. This glass is more than half-full and is filling with young, healthy arms. I’d like to see the Mets reacquire Takahashi, if at all possible, to add experience from the left side.

The everyday ballplayer situation is almost the complete opposite, sadly.

Keepers: Wright, Tejada, Davis, Duda, Murphy, Turner & Baxter. These are guys that are likely to carry their own weight either as a starter, in a platoon situation, or as a bench regular.

The weaknesses are blatant – we need to revamp completely our catching situation, and our outfield is in shambles. Our minor league talent consists of Wilmer Flores and Brandon Nimmo. Flores will be due for a mid-summer call-up, but Nimmo is two years away, barring a stellar rise.

I’d like to see the Mets make a run at two players in the Blue Jay organization – RH hitting cf Jake Marisnick & one of their two young catchers. We have trading chips, and let’s hope Sandy uses them wisely. In addition, if the Giants are willing to hear offers on CF prospect Gary Brown, we should be major players within that context, as well. He could’ve been acquired for Reyes, but Sandy’s hands appear to have been tied.

So, there it is: Let’s bolster – in a genuine sense – the catching position and centerfield so that we can strengthen the team’s spine up the middle and, concomitantly, continue to develop our pitching staff.

The ship will be righted by 2014, in the absence of any gross irregularity.

Somehow, this overly analytical blog of the Mets’ situation for 2013 does not bother me one bit. Baseball is a lot more art than science in the first place and I fully expected this team to be “righted” in 2014. As far as I see it, it’s 1983 all over again and we have to look to 85’.

I agree and they could become even more pedestrian and lose. The mets should trade wright, dickey and try and get 5 good prospects maybe more out of them. I’d also move niese if a top prospect like d’arnaud could be had. The mets have the worst outfield in baseball, the worst catching situation or right up there, and the same goes for the bullpen. Oakland seems to have the knack of trading established major leaguers and get prospects that help them and they make it work. The mets and their cheap owner will not go route, Fred and that jerkoff Jeff are only concerned with staying afloat, they lack what it takes to be a winning owner. We are stuck with them and your credentials are banned in the clubhouse even though this is probably one of the best most spot in articles I have read about the Mets in awhile. Go figure, and we are stuck with these loser cheat owners