Monthly Archives: May 2015

As the season draws to a close I aim to get my profit back above the £1000 mark. This could be achieved by Arsenal winning the cup outright next weekend. I have 100 on at 5/6, this was a bet placed before the semi final, Liverpool's exit makes it more lucrative.

Their are several important games this weekend; playoff finals, battle for the drop and battle for the poisoned chalice of The Europa League spot. With the NAPS at 19 out of 38 I need this final week to edge me past the 50 50 mark. Whilst these figures don't seem outstanding it would have still returned a nice profit betting on them with a same stake plan as the majority are over even money. The big win at the start of the season has enabled me to take some bigger gambles than normal and still return around £1000 for the season. I obviously would have liked more but don't all us gamblers. When we win we haven't had enough on and when we lose we have had too much on.

The Eurovision also takes place this weekend. I was talked into having 20 quid on the Finnish punk band. The whole group had learning difficulties and I was swayed by the possible sympathy vote. They were out in the semi finals!!! I have also had another tip about Armenia, although I can't see it myself, they are 400 to 1 so I think my mate may have gone off me or something? After listening to all the entries (how sad) I can't see past Russia. I also give Georgia an outside chance of the top 5.

Back to the football

Playoffs League Two – Southend (13/8 in 90 minutes Bet 365) are my tip for promotion, despite not having beat Wycombe yet this season. An away defeat of 4-1 and a home draw of 2-2 does not fill me with the upmost confidence but I fancy them to redress the balance. I also think Phil Brown could work as an extra man and get his team really up for the fight. The more conservative could have Southend to lift the trophy at 5/6 (Boyle Sports)

Premier League – Arsenal have already secured third place but I would still expect them to go out on a high after their dour nil nil with Sunderland. The 90 minute odds are too short but Arsenal minus 1.25 on the Asian Handicap at 10/11 with Bet Victor is worth a punt. I prefer this to the HT FT alternative (21/20 William Hill).

Aston Villa Vs Burnley is too tough to call with Sean Dyche being a proud man and Aston Villa thinking ahead to the FA Cup Final. Despite the good odds on Aston Villa, I would avoid this one.

Chelsea take on Sunderland and I expect Chelsea to go out on a high and Sunderland to be still suffering from a heavy night of celebrations. I would advise the same bets as for the Arsenal predictions with minus 1.25 on the Asian at 4/5 and HT FT at 10/11 with Bet 365 (money back for nil nil. I think with one I would plump for the HT FT and maybe have some in running if it is nil nil at half time.

Crystal Palace Vs Swansea looks like a nice encounter. Swansea are already 8th no matter what the result, whilst Palace have an opportunity to sneak into the top 10 with a victory. I am not a massive fan of backing in games that feature Crystal Palace as they can be unpredictable, however at 13/10 (Coral) they are worth a punt.

Everton Vs Tottenham sees both teams with things to play for. Everton are another team who know a win will cement their top 10 place but Spurs are also looking for a spot in Europe. I can't call this one as both teams can be great or awful on their day.

Leicester should beat QPR but at 4/6 I don't like the price.

Man City have nothing to play for against a Southampton team who look for a European spot. Koeman really wants that final place but I can't see past a City win at 3/5.

Stoke (5/2 Bet 365) are at home to Liverpool. Liverpool are the final team who can get fifth place and they hold all the cards. Stoke are 9th and can't budge. It would seem Liverpool should win but at 5/4 the price is too short.

Now to the two HUGE games of the weekend. I would love to get involved with betting on them but the excitement will already be there and the games are extremely tough to call. I could see Hull getting a result just as much as Man Utd overturning them. I can't really see Newcastle winning and I have a soft spot for Big Sam so I could see West Ham beating Newcastle. With the pressure and uncertainty of these two games I won't be getting involved.

Playoffs League One – Preston NAP (6/5 in 90 minutes Bet 365) should do a number on Swindon. This should be the opportunity to overturn their horrendous playoff record. Preston have strength in depth and Swindon have a woeful defence. Preston to get promotion is 8/13 at Bet 365.

Playoffs League Two – This is the only one of the three playoff games where I don't fancy the favourite. I think Middlesbrough will be triumphant and at a price of 2/1 in 90 minutes and even money to get promoted I think their is lots of value (both at BetVictor). Draw no Bet for Boro is also good at 21/20 with William Hill.

18 out of 37 NAPS. The season is drawing to a close and last weekend saw a very small loss. It will be a short and sweet blog this week as there is only one league to look at. I will give a more detailed analysis next week, which will include a round up of the season.

This weekend will mainly be dominated by the fact it is Stevie G's last season at Liverpool. The price for him to be substituted is low but it seems the biggest certainty of the weekend at 1/4. To cry during the match (probably when he is subbed) is even money with Boyle. Betfair offer 7 to 2 that he is Man of the Match, maximum stake £10, most firms are 6 to 4. All these bets are sentiment rather than real judgement, but the price is OK for MoM.

Premier League and MY BETS –

Tottenham NAP (5/6 Coral) Vs Hull – £50

Hull can't buy a win, Tottenham have not got the greatest of Home records but they will want to impress for the last home game of the season. Hull are fighting for their lives and Spurs don't have much to play for, this is the only concern.

West Ham (19/10 Bet 365) Vs Everton – £50

This may seem a strange bet considering West Ham have poor form and Everton are in form. The logic behind it is that Everton are good at home but not so good away. Big Sam always has a result in his locker and 19/10 is an amazing price to have a punt on.

Double 5.22 Boyle Sports – £25

Gerrard MoM (7/2 Betfair) – £10

Swansea (3/1) Vs Man City – £25

The Swans have achieved their highest points total ever and they will be looking to build on their success against Arsenal last weekend. The price is OK but not amazing, a small flutter may be advisable on this one.

I don't think the other games offer any value or they are too tough to call. Stick with the three and also stick in a cheeky double.

That's the last time I act on a dream! I did have a nice surprise though, I placed my bet with 888 in the end and I found a free bet waiting in my account. Apparently if a player scores in the game wearing a number 8 then you get your money back as a free bet :-). I used my free bet on under 2.5 goals in all the play off games. Sadly that bet is already over thanks to a 94th minute Swindon goal.

A very short blog this week as the season is coming to a close.

PLAYOFFS – The first legs all offer excellent value with all teams being odds against. However, it is a coin toss in most of the games and they will probably all be won with a one goal margin. I would be having anything on any of the remaining games. However, I still fancy the rest of them to be low scoring.

Premier League – Opposite to the playoffs, I expect lots of goals in The Premier League this weekend. I think there is a chance that all teams could score on Saturday and all Sunday and Monday home teams to win to nil. The Saturday bet pays 81.22 with Ladbrokes, worth a flutter for some fun. The Sunday and Monday treble pays 13 to 1 with Stan James (not so great a price).

The prices for teams this weekend are similar to the playoffs, with most teams being even money or odds against. Only Everton at home to Sunderland and Man Utd away to Palace are the odds on teams. Everton should win but I am not confident about Man Utd, I will be leaving both these games alone.

Aston Villa (NAP, currently 17 out of 36) have the bit between their teeth and are at home to a West Ham team that have little to play for. Sherwood has injected new life into Villa and in particular Benteke. I think Villa will win this and the price is reasonable. Coral are the only firm offering even money.

Aston Villa (Coral Evens) NAP Vs West Ham

Burnley can't buy a win at the minute and they may find it difficult away to Hull (Evens Coral). Both teams have a lot to pay for and it is the proverbial six pointer.

Hull (Coral Evens) Vs Burnley

Leicester are good value to beat Southampton as Pearson and his men are in the ascendancy. Koeman seems to be a little shaky at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if Leicester take all 3 points.

Leicester (Paddy Power 13/8) Vs Southampton

THE value bet of the day is WBA away to Newcastle. Two managers who are polar opposites, one who can seem to do no wrong and one who can seem to do no right. At 2/1 it is hard to find a reason not to back WBA. Newcastle have 2 men out as they lost their heads last weekend. Maybe the 2 new players will come in and inject new energy, I can't see it though.

Newcastle Vs WBA (Bet 365 2/1)

Stoke and Tottenham could see any 1 of 3 results, but unlike the playoffs you can get nearly 2 to 1 on Stoke. At that price it is worth a shot. 11/10 with Paddy Power for Draw No Bet for the more conservative punter. On this occasion I think that includes me. 🙂

Stoke (Paddy Power DNB 11/10) Vs Tottenham

The only other game I will be involved in, that doesn't take place on Saturday, is Chelsea at 11/10 to beat a lackluster Liverpool team. Chelsea are Champions and they will want to give the fans something more to sing about with a victory over Liverpool.

Chelsea (Coral 11/10) Vs Liverpool

SPECIAL OFFER – It is worth mentioning that Paddy are offer £10 in play bets if you place £20 pre match at 1/2 or better in ANY Premier League game this weekend. These will be on the Spreadsheet as £200 worth of bets and I will incorporate any winnings into the total. Difficult to show complete transparency on this one.