Quotes of the day

posted at 10:37 pm on May 15, 2012 by Allahpundit

Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.

***

The marginal factors in the past four or six weeks have looked slightly better for Mr. Romney than Mr. Obama. The recuperation in Mr. Romney’s favorability numbers, for instance — if it was somewhat to be expected — also reduces the risk that his personal qualities might cause him to lose an election that he otherwise would have won, as during another economic downturn.

Meanwhile, the tumultuous situation in Greece may increase the chance of an economic downside case for Mr. Obama. And data from the domestic economy has not been as strong lately. (Although it might also be mentioned that the situation in the Middle East is thought to be improving, and oil pries have receded somewhat.)

Put another way, if you are being very detail oriented, there is a case to be made that Mr. Romney’s odds of being elected have improved somewhat over the past six weeks.

***

When pollsters call these voting blocs now, many people will likely proclaim their continued loyalty to the president.

They won’t be lying to pollsters about whom they really want to vote for. The issue will be whether they actually go to the booth and vote for Obama.

Many voted in 2008 with the desire to see racism and racists humiliated by having a qualified black man elected president. Especially after eight years of what was not, and still is not, perceived as a successful presidency.

Now, many of these same voters still feel an allegiance to Obama — and he’s their theoretical choice in the election. But along with feeling some allegiance, they also may be left feeling disappointment. And that can lead to a disconnect with what pollsters hear compared with the voters who actually show up on Election Day.

***

But when I look at the data, a slightly different question comes to mind: Why is Obama even close? If you look at the fundamentals, the president should be getting crushed right now…

The key is his post-boomer leadership style. Critics are always saying that Obama is too cool and detached, arrogant and aloof. But the secret to his popularity through hard times is that he is not melodramatic, sensitive, vulnerable and changeable. Instead, he is self-disciplined, traditional and a bit formal. He is willing, with drones and other mechanisms, to use lethal force.

Normally, presidents look weak in these circumstances, overwhelmed by events. But Obama has displayed a kind of ESPN masculinity — postfeminist in his values, but also thoroughly old-fashioned in style — hypercompetitive, restrained, not given to self-doubt, rarely self-indulgent. Administrations are undone by scandal and moments when they look pathetic, but this administration, guarded in all things, has rarely had those moments.

***

In that view, the primary fundamentals are these: Obama is the incumbent. The economy is growing at a moderate pace. There’s no serious third-party challenge. We’re not losing massive numbers of soldiers in a foreign war. And when you look at those fundamentals, the reality is this: Incumbent presidents very, very rarely lose under those conditions…

If I seem pedantic on this point, it’s because this is one of my pet peeves in political commentary: Pundits take political situations that can be explained through the fundamentals and then attribute them, without any evidence, to the telegenic characteristics of individual politicians or the messaging decisions made by their campaigns. Then, a few years later, the fundamentals turn around, and suddenly our great communicator has forgotten how to give a speech or run a campaign — or vice versa. Remember that in 1982, Ronald Reagan was under 40 percent in the polls. Then the economy rebounded, and he romped to victory in the election.

***

There has been nothing very cool about the past 7 weeks for Obama. The president has twisted himself into a policy and rhetorical pretzel to win the support and money he needs from the members of the Democratic coalition.

If Democrats don’t want to see Obama defeated, they had better suck it up. Obama is not the superman they believe him to be, nor is his campaign the masterwork they have been led to believe.

The president knows how tight a spot he is in. His supporters are just now realizing it.

***

Had this been an isolated event, Democrat campaign professionals might not be all that concerned. Mistakes, after all, are made. But this was hardly a “one off.” There are, in the view of many Democratic pros, far too many other examples of the Obama campaign making a hash of fairly straightforward political matters…

The mishandling of the President’s endorsement of same sex marriage sent the president’s re-election prospects into a tailspin; electoral college handicappers busily moved North Carolina from “toss-up” to “likely Republican.” And it necessitated today’s “let’s-get-the-media-talking-about-something-else” news event (the Bain attack ad).

Because we have been told for so long that Team Obama is the very model of the modern campaign operation, we have come to sort of believe it. In reality, they’ve been surprisingly inept since they set up shop last year. They’ve been through three slogans and four over-arching re-election “themes.” They’ve made a big deal out of Romney’s dog. They’ve introduced us to “Julia,” which seemed like a right-wing parody of the perfect constituent of the nanny state. One could on (and on).

Blowback

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“But Obama has displayed a kind of ESPN masculinity — postfeminist in his values, but also thoroughly old-fashioned in style — hypercompetitive, restrained, not given to self-doubt, rarely self-indulgent.”

“But Obama has displayed a kind of ESPN masculinity — postfeminist in his values, but also thoroughly old-fashioned in style — hypercompetitive, restrained, not given to self-doubt, rarely self-indulgent.”

Postfeminist values ≠ masculinity.

I had to look up who actually wrote this stuff. I expect some of the ESPN commentators to sue him!

This, fellow commenters, was brought to you by David Brooks, who wrote the ode to the “perfectly creased pant.”

INC on May 15, 2012 at 11:13 PM

Oh my God. Yeah, their version of masculinity is mom jeans and bicycle helmets. Ugh, that quote makes me cringe.

Rice’s initial college major was piano, but after realizing she did not have the talent to play professionally, she began to consider an alternative major.She attended an international politics course taught by Josef Korbel, which sparked her interest in the Soviet Union and international relations. Rice later described Korbel (who was the father of Madeleine Albright, a future U.S. Secretary of State), as a central figure in her life.

Schadenfreude on May 16, 2012 at 12:29 AM

I had no idea! And from Wiki….

at the age of 26, she received her Ph.D. in political science from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. Her dissertation centered on military policy and politics in what was then the communist state of Czechoslovakia.

Doing well here. Haven’t been as active posting here lately. A few comments, usually belated because I read after work and the articles that interest me happened earlier in the day. Sometimes one just has to put in their $0.02 despite being late to the party. :-)

“But Obama has displayed a kind of ESPN masculinity — postfeminist in his values, but also thoroughly old-fashioned in style — hypercompetitive, restrained, not given to self-doubt, rarely self-indulgent.”

“Rarely self-indulgent”. Really? That right there is funny. If he didn’t have petulant, narcissistic, and self-indulgent, Jugears wouldn’t have any personality at all.

It wont be about Romney..just the won and crew kicking their a$$ kicked back to Chi-town.
And having him out of my face and hearing about him 24/7.
I cant even watch my show “Chopped” without him coming up.
He is everywhere.
I will also relish the liberal meltdown.

But here..where I am..Zero enthusiasm for Zero.
My home town aint real thrilled either..the space center really effed up the area. Lots of mad folks. Pockets of Fl are hurting bad. Housing crisis still #2 in the country.

But when I look at the data, a slightly different question comes to mind: Why is Obama even close? If you look at the fundamentals, the president should be getting crushed right now…

..’scuse me for unloading on AP, but sometimes the Eeyore stuff is a little over the top. Actually, I know it isn’t AP per se, but the opening QOTD and the one above smacks of a lack of..well..historical perspective. either that or the quotee is whistling past the graveyard.

Sitting president? Most polls — wildly skewed towards the D’s over R’s — and all that pile of compost cam manage is MOE or a few points down. And that’s after the GOP candidate engaged in a 9-month knife-fight with three or four bitter adversaries?

Naw, sorry mate. This piece of crap is going down hard — in Carteresque proportions.

Regarding the 56% that think Obama will win. It does not say that 56% WANT him to win. Too many people (some family and friends included) do not want him to win, but believe that Obama and his henchmen will make past instances of voter fraud look like child’s play.

Well its a bit of a odd story. You know me, a bit on the paranoid side, except around friends. But yes, I thought I’d go over and check on the pooch. When I left my message, I didn’t realize it would leave my blog I just started behind. You probably know I’m not to clued into all the ins and outs of the interwebs stuff. HeII Dire and predator and Fallon have taught me most of what I know how to do here at HA. Oh and Schadenfreude.

Just sad to see the state change so much over the years.
Oh, I will. My family is here..so won’t leave. Maybe one day. I have to be near my beloved ocean though.
Probably a small coastal town in the South one day..1/2 year or something. When I reach senior status. Cept I prob will work till I am 90. :)

Paying my bills and having more in the bank than it takes (barely) is the sum total of my mathematical skills. Oh, I can figure out how much change I should get pretty quickly on the odd occasion I use cash. Anyone who has ever had to use the jack that came with their car has to be a bit skeptical of engineers.

Yes, Looking back…I had no idea what my mom sacrificed and how much she did for us. Watching my sister with my baby nephew..Gosh…That is hard work.(understatement) I have so much understanding and respect now.

You know, the first time I heard D.S. on the radio (Sultans of Swing), I thought Bobby Dylan did it. I really like them a lot. When my body is suffused with too much of the amber nectar and I get particularly weepy, I pine for my old USAF days by listening to Brothers in Arms. That usually brings down the house — along with Bob Dylan’s Dream. (There’s only covers of that, unfortunately.)