Friday, July 29, 2011

Voters dislike Snyder, also oppose recall

Michigan voters don't like Rick Snyder...but they don't support recalling him from office at this point either.

Snyder's approval rating is 38% with 50% of voters disapproving of him. That's actually a slight improvement from when PPP last polled the state in March, when Snyder stood at 33/50. His numbers are identical to where they were with Democrats on the previous poll and he's seen nominal gains with Republicans (from 68% approval to 72%) and with independents (from 32% to 40%, although his disapproval number has also risen with them as they've come off the fence.)

There are 2 key reasons Snyder continues to be under water. The main one is that independents disapprove of him 40/46. That's particularly notable because of how popular he once was with that group of voters- in fact it's been almost one year to the day that I wrote a blog post specifically on that subject. That unique appeal he had to independents over the course of last year's campaign is now a thing of the past. Snyder's other problem is that Democrats (80%) are more united in their disapproval of him than Republicans (72%) are in their approval. The intensity of feelings about him now are stronger on the other side of the party ledger than within his own.

As bad as Snyder's numbers are though voters are still slightly opposed to recalling him- 42% support removing him from office to 47% against it. That's because only 79% of voters who disapprove of him support recalling him compared to 92% of voters who approve of him that oppose recalling him. There's a large enough mass of voters who disapprove of him but don't think he should be removed to tip the scales against recall.

That phenomenon can particularly be seen with independents. They disapprove of Snyder 40/46 but they simultaneously oppose recalling him by a 50/35 margin.

Democrats aren't having a great July nationally but one data point in our Michigan poll still makes it clear that the party's a whole lot better off than it was in 2010. If voters could go to the polls and do last year's election over again they'd split their votes evenly between Snyder and Democrat Virg Bernero at 45%. That's quite a contrast from Snyder's 18 point margin of victory last fall and an indication that voters in the state are moving away from the GOP, at least compared to last year. That's certainly good news for Barack Obama and Debbie Stabenow, as reflected in polling we released for the state earlier this week.

Michigan probably won't be as Democratic next year as it was in 2008...but at this point it looks like it will be more like 2008 than 2010. And that's actually a pretty good microcosm of all our polling across the country right now.

6 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Difference is that you are only polling registered voters and therefore your analysis is very dishonest. Spin away. Obama at 40% approval and all we hear from you is about polls of people that never vote. Poll likely voters and I'll believe you.

I'm just perplexed that less than 50% of voters are ready n willing to put Snyder out of office ????? I guess Benton Harbor isn't enough of a lesson as to where Michigan is headed under Snyder? By the time all this takes place I hope to be out of this state ( I keep on lowering the price of my house to do it!) actually out of the country ... if I'm gonna live in a banana republic it might as well be on a south sea island! The wife is not yet convinced?

As for polling I don't see much difference in percentage of out come of "registered to likey voters" I can't count on both my fingers n toes how many people I know that said FOR SURE they would VOTE at the next election and DIDN'T! No biggie to me as to Reg or likey voters ..... 2% points don't matter.dave boudreau