Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Predicting Abreu’s contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player’s goals. Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency. Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance. Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I’ve projected a three-year, $42MM contract. Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won’t cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain. $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu’s ceiling. Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

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Abreu (and other loophole Cuban players) are unique in that they only cost money AND there's no limit to how much can be spent on them for international signing purposes (obviously if the Yankees sign him, his salary counts for salary cap purposes).

Seeing how much money there is in the game, I could see a team going hog wild for Abreu, with the express intent of bulking up their talent pool.

Yeah, I expect Abreu to go for a ton, because as discussed you get more for your buck, and because of the success of Cespedes and Puig (even though we've seen before that the latter logic can be misleading).

I hope the Mets at least make an offer, but I certainly don't expect them to end up with the player, since I think the bidding will get out of their range, and since they have three guys (Ike, Duda, Flores) who at least carry some hope to fill the position adequately. (Unlike the corner outfield situation.)

Abreu (and other loophole Cuban players) are unique in that they only cost money AND there's no limit to how much can be spent on them for international signing purposes (obviously if the Yankees sign him, his salary counts for salary cap purposes).

And because of risk, they're generally cheaper than regular free agents, and even with the age fuzziness, younger. Any smart team should be in on Cuban FAs.

I'd be surprised if Napoli got a 3 year guaranteed deal, AVN doesn't go away. I'd expect if anything for him to get a single year with a fairly low base salary, but with a couple years of vesting options and lots of performance escalators.

I'd be surprised if Napoli got a 3 year guaranteed deal, AVN doesn't go away. I'd expect if anything for him to get a single year with a fairly low base salary, but with a couple years of vesting options and lots of performance escalators.

I expect the Sox to give him a QO, and for him to accept it and be back for 1 year @ $14M.