From a theory point of view we have to defend 40% of our range. Pot odds are 37%.

I think thereís a chance villain has Ax here, and after your turn check and hitting trips might be too excited. Also although really unlikely but this could be a good spot to turn a missed fd into a bluff.

So we need to win 37% of the time. Itís a big number, I think itís close tbh. Depending on if you bet jj on this flop we get here with stronger holdings. Houses in AQ, AJ, QQ and JJ. But given the levels crazy nature, our under repped holdings and the missed draws I think a calls correct. It wonít mean much in the long run. We block enough of the terrible stuff.

Bet the turn.

#4

November 9th, 2018, 5:34 PM

Hujiko

Posts: 316

Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:One pair hand 5 combos that you beat2xKQs + 3xQTsTwo pair hands 2 combos that you beat2 QJsStraights 1 combo that beat you1xKTs (hearts)Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJsMissed flush draws 0Trips 5 combos3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.

I am partially in agreement with Gabe that as played, especially at these stakes, villain can have Ax and we have to call with this holding.

I also don't think we particularly need to be the turn. Yes it's the micros, but it's still a MUCH better card for villain's range than ours imo, and it's nice to have a hand as strong as AK in our turn check back range sometimes.

With that being said though, river is a must call if AK is one of if not the strongest hand we reach river with in the given action. But we're definitely still losing this pot a very non-zero amount facing this action. I'm assuming we got shown AQ or AJ.

#6

November 9th, 2018, 7:49 PM

Gabe16

Posts: 155

Originally Posted by Hujiko

Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:One pair hand 5 combos that you beat2xKQs + 3xQTsTwo pair hands 2 combos that you beat2 QJsStraights 1 combo that beat you1xKTs (hearts)Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJsMissed flush draws 0Trips 5 combos3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.

I think we need an sb rfi and 3B fold stat to make him that tight. Like I can see a lot more fdís sb vs bb. Unless villain over folds to 3Bís.

Like the analysis here though!

#7

November 9th, 2018, 7:53 PM

Gabe16

Posts: 155

Originally Posted by Scourrge

I am partially in agreement with Gabe that as played, especially at these stakes, villain can have Ax and we have to call with this holding.

I also don't think we particularly need to be the turn. Yes it's the micros, but it's still a MUCH better card for villain's range than ours imo, and it's nice to have a hand as strong as AK in our turn check back range sometimes.

With that being said though, river is a must call if AK is one of if not the strongest hand we reach river with in the given action. But we're definitely still losing this pot a very non-zero amount facing this action. I'm assuming we got shown AQ or AJ.

It feels a fairly neutral card to me. We probably have all the KT. Does villain? And JJ?

#8

November 9th, 2018, 8:20 PM

Wiliest

Online Poker at: America's Ca

Game: hold'em

Posts: 26

Originally Posted by Hujiko

Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:One pair hand 5 combos that you beat2xKQs + 3xQTsTwo pair hands 2 combos that you beat2 QJsStraights 1 combo that beat you1xKTs (hearts)Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJsMissed flush draws 0Trips 5 combos3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.

I don't think utilizing the VPIP/PFR stats is a wise move in these SB v BB situations at this level. People do lots of crazy and spewy things in these spots all the time. I think the ranges are much wider than this and its an easy call for hero here.

#9

November 9th, 2018, 9:33 PM

Scourrge

Poker at: Ignition

Game: Hold'em

Posts: 6,910

Originally Posted by Gabe16

It feels a fairly neutral card to me. We probably have all the KT. Does villain? And JJ?

I would assume the preflop raiser/caller here has much more KT than the preflop 3bettor, but that's obviously dependent on the specific players, and frankly I play very few BvB pots in cash games so I could be a bit off here range wise.

I would assume the preflop raiser/caller here has much more KT than the preflop 3bettor, but that's obviously dependent on the specific players, and frankly I play very few BvB pots in cash games so I could be a bit off here range wise.

You might be right. Iíve not looked af my ranges here for a while. I doubt I get past the removal that KT has vs what should be a wide range when 3Betting really puts sb in a tight spot. I might be over doing it.

#11

November 9th, 2018, 10:33 PM

Scourrge

Poker at: Ignition

Game: Hold'em

Posts: 6,910

Originally Posted by Gabe16

You might be right. Iíve not looked af my ranges here for a while. I doubt I get past the removal that KT has vs what should be a wide range when 3Betting really puts sb in a tight spot. I might be over doing it.

It's just my gut for these stakes that SB will retain almost all KTo, whereas I'm very unsure whether it's a "standard" BB 3bet here, and whether the OP will as well, is what I'm driving at.

I think what's so tough about spots like these is that what our own range is at each step matters quite a bit, but a lot of times we are doing fairly different stuff, especially in such a dynamic situation like BvB.

#12

November 9th, 2018, 11:58 PM

Gabe16

Posts: 155

Too true!

#13

November 13th, 2018, 1:22 AM

Sidetracked

Posts: 402

As played I think that's a clear call. But why check the turn? With the blind vs blind dynamic he can call 3 streets with a way worse hand than yours.

#14

November 14th, 2018, 11:45 AM

Hujiko

Posts: 316

Originally Posted by Wiliest

I don't think utilizing the VPIP/PFR stats is a wise move in these SB v BB situations at this level. People do lots of crazy and spewy things in these spots all the time. I think the ranges are much wider than this and its an easy call for hero here.

The major point is not the VIP/PFR thing is that not a lot of hands could continue that way to the river and bluff at the river or are you suggesting that he is making a thin value bet and that AK will beat his value hand?

And what range are you putting him on that would play that way with an A on the flop and call the 3 betters cbet?