This is a guest posting by Felix Kramer, Founder of the California Cars Initiative (CalCars.org)

Five years ago, when the Automotive X Prize was just an idea, gas prices were seesawing, and people were fed up with paying a billion dollars a day for foreign oil. We're still addicted to oil -- but thanks in large part to the X Prize, we can see a way out.

Back then, the famed Hypercar spinoff from Rocky Mountain Institute had previewed a future of lightweight, aerodynamic, safe autos. And everyone who'd looked at ways to reduce greenhouse gases knew the answer had to include getting our vehicles off fossil fuels. It was time for cars to take a quantum leap.

Meanwhile, promising cars like the GM EV1 and Toyota RAV4 EV were history. But the death of the electric car turned out to be just the end of one chapter. In 2004, CalCars.org showed how to convert hybrids to plug in, plastering five-foot wide signs proclaiming "100+MPG" on the sides of our Prius retrofits. And Tesla raised money to build a sexy sportscar that would beat almost anything on the road. We could see a future of optimized vehicles running on cleaner, cheaper, domestic electricity.

The Automotive X Prize launched in 2006-07 with ambitions to inspire the public and spark innovation to change the auto industry. Getting the competition right wasn't easy for its dedicated, creative staff:

When "100 MPG" came up against vehicles powered by different fuels, experts developed "MPGe" for apples-to-apples comparisons of electricity with petroleum and renewable biofuels.

Faced with public expectations for glitzy track races, planners who knew drivers most need a fuel-miser for 25-mile-a-day commutes worked out new tests. They enlisted the U.S. Department of Energy's National Labs to validate the performance of innovative solutions.

With hopes that some great idea would emerge from a quirky corner, they split the Prize into mainstream and alternative paths.

And, knowing that imaginative, unique solutions also had to find their ways to millions of drivers, they made competitors show their designs could be safe, affordably mass-produced, and sold for a profit.

As we reach the end of this historic competition, we all wonder who will win. But it's never been more true that "the journey is the reward." Competitors that didn't make it all the way have gained significant visibility, investments, and partnerships. Some may become successful manufacturers. Others will see their teams, intellectual property, and visions acquired by larger companies. Many will celebrate their victories.

And the Prize's impact extends far beyond the competition. X Prize raising the MPG bar certainly encouraged Congress to increase fuel efficiency standards. As we debate what new car stickers should say about efficiency and emissions, a new coalition is urging a goal of 60 MPG by 2025. The DOE has funded development of an advanced U.S. battery industry and lent carmakers billions to retool for green automotive jobs. States and companies have added their incentive programs to the federal $7,500 tax credits for new plug-in cars. Engineering students have been inspired to find jobs in a reviving auto industry. High schoolers have seen how cars can be cool and clean.

And automakers? They've been watching closely and making industry-changing decisions. In 2006, I became the world's first consumer owner of a plug-in hybrid. Now, before the end of this X Prize year, my family hopes to replace that PHEV conversion with a Chevy Volt that we can drive everywhere. And we'll trade our reliable Toyota Camry Hybrid for a Nissan LEAF's daily drives with no gasoline. The cars are coming: the U.S. is on track for a million mass-produced plug-in cars by 2015!

What's next? How about a follow-on prize? As the high-MPG cars arrive, it's clear it will take decades before they'll make up a large enough fraction of our country's 250 million vehicles to have much impact on fossil fuel use. Visionaries like Andy Grove are urging us to retrofit tens of millions of pickup trucks, SUVs, vans, and buses. Like the Home Star building retrofits we're now accelerating, national gas guzzler conversions could create green jobs in communities everywhere. So CalCars hopes for a Drive Star competition -- from X Prize, DOE, or another sponsor -- to spark "The Big Fix," creating a global industry to upgrade many of the world's 900 million vehicles.

X Prize began with the Ansari X Prize for space flight. As the X Prize Foundation broadens, with prizes in genomics, lunar exploration, and ocean oil cleanup, it's never been clearer that humanity and our planet face immense challenges. We used to say "the sky's the limit." Now that we recognize we need to save that one sky ASAP, we look to future competitions for inspiration, ideas, and a global rescue.

With the on-track stages behind us and the results of those on-track stages prominently available on the Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE website, one might think the winners of this $10M competition are a foregone conclusion. Well, here are a few reasons why you should think again.

The winners must pass the Validation Stage, during which they must achieve an efficiency result on the dynamometer high enough to ensure that, when averaged 50/50 with the on-track results, it equals 100 MPGe or better. A dynamometer, or "dyno" for short, is a device that allows engineers to test a vehicle by simulating the loads associated with driving without actually moving (basically, a treadmill for cars - think of the recent Lexus super car commercial that revs its engine until it shatters a wine glass).

Though two teams advancing to Validation are alone in their respective classes, Edison2 (Mainstream Class) and X-Tracer (Alternative Tandem Class), they each must still meet some very difficult requirements on the chassis dynamometer. If you recall, competition officials ruled that Edison2 was not at fault for the incidents at Coast Down that damaged the engines of both of their Mainstream Class entries. Consequently, officials granted Edison2 a waiver from Validation testing at Argonne National Lab as the cost and timetable for repair and calibration of the engines was not feasible. However, because Roush had conducted dynamometer testing on the Edison2 vehicles that were fielded at Knockout and Finals, officials have agreed to review these third party results to determine whether they can be accepted in lieu of testing at Argonne. Tune in to the Award Ceremony on September 16 to learn how the officials ultimately ruled.

That leaves the Alternative Class. To verify the on-track results from Michigan International Speedway, vehicles must repeat efficiency, range, and emissions testing – not an easy feat on the dyno where vehicles can’t benefit from air cooling at speed. In addition, they must survive an entirely new test for gradeability, also known as a simulated hill climb. To do so, they must maintain a minimum 55 mph speed on a simulated 4 percent grade (incline) continuously for 15 minutes. They must also surmount fuel economy, range, and greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions tests.

All vehicles must meet strict EPA emissions standards and achieve an on-road life cycle greenhouse gas emissions level of 200 equivalent grams of CO2 per mile or less. This is also known as a wells-to-wheels (WTW) calculation that accounts for the upstream pollution associated with extraction, transportation, storage, and distribution of the energy that drives the wheels. Vehicles that don’t achieve these requirements during Validation Testing will not be eligible for the Grand Prize.

For the five teams in the Alternative Side-by-Side Class, placement was determined by the Combined Performance & Efficiency Test, the last event conducted at the Finals Stage. Given that Team Li-ion achieved 171.4 MPGe in on-track testing, they do not appear to be in danger of falling short of the fuel economy mark. However, should they fail any component of testing on the dyno, including the simulated hill climb, they would fail to pass the Validation Stage. In that event, eligibility for the prize would fall to the next team in the placement order, in this case RaceAbout.

Validation Stage testing is no slam dunk. Teams must not only pass these very strenuous challenges, they must achieve 100 MPGe or better when averaged 50/50 with on-track results to claim the prize.

The bottom line: No one will know for sure until the winners are revealed at the final Award Ceremony on September 16th. So stay tuned!

With the close of the on-track stages barely 12 hours behind them, teams spent the better portion of Wednesday, July 28th loading and transporting their vehicles from Michigan International Speedway to Chrysler’s Proving Grounds in Chelsea, a short distance away. Since then, all vehicles that advanced to the Validation Stage (the last and final hurdle toward the $10 million purse) were put through a Coast Down exercise, which involved test engineers accelerating each vehicle up to approximately 70mph on a 2.25 mile long, level paved roadway and then “coasting” them in neutral until they come to a stop, unassisted by brakes.

The exercise provides a few key metrics that are required for Validation Testing on the chassis dynamometers at Argonne National Lab facilities located just outside Chicago:

·First is aerodynamic resistance, a factor of the vehicle’s shape and footprint that determines how much air the vehicle has to push out of the way as it moves. The more resistance, the more energy has to be expended.

·Second is rolling resistance, a factor of tire design that determines how much energy the vehicle has to use to overcome the resistance caused by the friction between the tires and the road.

·Third is mechanical resistance, a factor of the vehicle’s powertrain and how much energy the vehicle has to use to overcome internal friction to drive the wheels.

Day 1 of Coast Down weather proved less than ideal, so Chrysler test engineers made the best of it by rigging up the vehicles with the needed instrumentation and training Chrysler’s professional drivers to handle the vehicles. Thankfully, the weather on Day 2 proved ideal, and teams RaceAbout Association, Li-Ion Motors, ZAP, and Aptera wrapped up under sunny skies and little wind without incident. All four vehicles were shipped off early the following morning on a hauler to arrive at Argonne National Lab for Validation testing.

Also on the morning of Day 3, Edison2, TW4XP, and X-Tracer hit the proving grounds for their turn through Coast Down. On the straight-away of the test track, Edison2’s Mainstream Class entries, vehicle numbers 97 and 98, were fielded. In both cases, as third party test drivers accelerated the vehicles to speed, a mechanical over-rev condition resulted in engine failures and the tests had to be aborted.

The fact that the Edison2 vehicles employ sequential transmissions may have contributed to the unintended downshift and subsequent mechanical over-rev condition that damaged the engines. In a typical racing configuration, the driver pulls rearword on the shift lever to shift up through the gears. This is opposite the convention used by many US automakers in their semi-automatic transmissions (like Chrysler's AutoStick), where manual upshifting is executed by pushing forward, away from the driver. Further, given that this is a competition vehicle, the automated software that would normally override an unintended downshift at speed or at high RPM is not yet perfected.

Chrysler’s test engineers, working with Oliver Kuttner and Ron Mathis of Edison2, were able to quite literally push their way through this particular setback, however. With the engines of both Edison2 vehicles out of commission, Chrysler, with Kuttner piloting the competition vehicle and Mathis behind the wheel of one of their trucks, put their assist vehicles to work, pushing one of the identical Edison2 vehicles to a speed sufficient to acquire the needed measurements.

Coast Down data was ultimately obtained for the Edison2 vehicles, and the tests were completed successfully. Both X-Tracer and TW4XP successfully completed Coast Down as well.

And so the week ended not without incident, but with a bit of determination and resourcefulness. All of the finalist vehicles have safely arrived at Argonne’s facilities for Validation.Testing began Tuesday, August 3rd, and will continue throughout the month of August.

Since the Edison2 engines require costly repairs due to damage that was no fault of their own, and because the timing of these repairs presents substantial schedule challenges, competition officials have agreed to review objective third-party dynamometer results on Edison2’s vehicles to determine whether the data can be accepted in lieu of Validation Testing at Argonne National Lab. Until this determination is made, Edison2 will be granted a waiver that releases the team from the requirement to present their vehicles at Argonne for Validation Stage testing.

Again, both Edison2 vehicles remain active in the competition, and eligible for the $5 million prize purse. Visit www.progressiveautoxprize.org to follow the progress of the remaining vehicles and track the competition.