Pac-10 Power Rankings Week 11: The Ducks' magic number is 2 in race for conference title (poll)

View full sizeAP Photo/Rick BowmerOregon running back LaMichael James (21) dives for a touchdown as Washington cornerback Desmond Trufant (6) defends during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 6, 2010, in Eugene, Ore.

Last week's Power Rankings' headline "Conference title remains very much up for grabs" attracted a few skeptics despite its accuracy.

This week? Not so much.

Losses last week by Oregon State and Arizona, and Oregon's whipping of Washington, placed the Ducks firmly in the drivers' seat in the conference. But they haven't reached clear sailing just yet.

I went on record two weeks ago stating that the Ducks were a win at USC away from locking up a trip to the national championship game. That opinion remains. It would be criminal for the Ducks to blow this opportunity by losing to the likes of California, Arizona or Oregon State. Neither team comes close to measuring up.

On the other hand, stranger things in sports have happened. Therefore, not only are the Ducks not a given to land in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10 but they still could stumble all the way to the Alamo Bowl (cringe. see poll question).

Even if Oregon defeats Ca, the Cardinal, Beavers and Wildcats would remain alive for the conference with wins title because the Ducks could still lose twice.

Two wins clinches for Oregon regardless of what else occurs. Thus, the Ducks' magic number is 2.

Obviously, Oregon must remain undefeated to reach the national championship game.

OREGON STATE's PATH TO THE PAC-10 TITLE

Last week's loss to UCLA severely damaged the Beavers chances but they are not done yet.

OSU must win out and hope Oregon loses once before the Civil War. Oregon State already holds tiebreakers against Arizona and would still face Stanford and the Ducks. So, if the Beavers win their remaining games, and Oregon loses one other game, the Beavers would hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Stanford and the Ducks.

STANFORD'S PATH TO THE PAC-10 TITLE

Because the Cardinal lost to the Ducks it must finish a full game ahead of Oregon to win the title. That can only happen if the Ducks lose two more games than Stanford does the rest of the way.

ARIZONA'S PATH TO THE PAC-10 TITLE

The Wildcats need a lot of help because they've already lost to Stanford and Oregon State. Best chance is for Arizona to win its final three games and hope the Beavers lose at least once and Stanford loses twice.

Winning out for Arizona would mean a win over the Ducks but the Wildcats would also need Oregon to lose oen other game in order to clinch with the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Voting: 45 pointsLast week: Won 42-17 vs. Arizona. Next up: at Arizona State, 4:30 p.m., Saturday. Comment: Stanford demonstrated last week that it is a national contender, which only further illustrates just how good Oregon truly is.

Voting: 29 pointsLast week: Lost 17-14 at UCLA.Next up: vs. Washington State, 1 p.m., Saturday.Comment: No way Oregon State wins out and with Stanford, USC and Oregon left to play the Beavers are in danger of not reaching bowl eligibility.

Voting: 18 pointsLast week: Won 17-14 over Oregon State.Next up: at Washington, 5 p.m., Nov. 18.Comment: The win over the Beavers saved UCLA's season and victories over Washington and Arizona State would put the Bruins in position to land a bowl invite.

Voting: 10 pointsLast week:Lost 53-16 at Oregon.Next up: vs. UCLA, 5 p.m., Nov. 18.Comment: Jake Locker's return for his senior season was indeed noble but depending on how the NFL's future collective bargaining agreement works out, his returning to not win the Heisman or go to a bowl game could cost Locker at least $20 million in guaranteed money should a rookie salary cap becomes reality.

Voting: 5 pointsast week:Lost 20-13 to California. Next up: at Oregon State, 1 p.m., Saturday. Comment: The Cougars blew their best chance at a Pac-10 win by losing to Cal but defeating the Huskies is not completely out of the question.