Parched Prospects 3: Using the International Futures model to forecast water supply and withdrawals in South Africa

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South Africa’s water sector is in a precarious state. The country is already overexploiting its renewable resources and, according to the International Futures (IFs) model, withdrawals are forecast to increase in all three sectors (agricultural, industrial and municipal) out to 2035. Meanwhile, much of South Africa’s water infrastructure is in disrepair and dam levels are dangerously low – particularly in the Western Cape province, where dam levels at the end of October 2017 were at an estimated 32%. Furthermore, the existing solutions for reconciling the gap between supply and demand proposed by the South African government are insufficient. While it is feasible to restore stability to South Africa’s water sector, it will take significant investment and political will. This research presents a national-level forecast of water supply and withdrawals in South Africa until 2035, along with exploring some alternative scenarios and their implications for economic and human development.