Melbourne property market – the tale of two cities

These were the words seem as relevant describing the Melbourne property market today as they were when they were when written by Charles Dickens over 150 years ago in A tale of Two Cities.
The latest RPData stats show that overall Melbourne dwelling prices increased by 2.5% over the last quarter and have risen 4.9% since the market turned in May last year.

Not a bad result! But when you dig deeper you find…

On the one hand there is a shortage of well-located, desirable, established apartments and houses in Melbourne’s middle ring suburbs causing prices to rise and auction clearance rates to remain high.

And on the other hand there is a glut of new apartments coming onto the market and a dearth of new house and land packages standing vacant not able to find buyers.

Add to this the record number of new apartments coming on to the market in some of Melbourne’s inner suburbs over the next few years and this will put further pressure on the city’s supply and demand ratio.

According to a recent report by valuers Charter Keck Kramer about 25,500 new apartments will be completed in metropolitan Melbourne by the end of next year, four times what was built in 2005, when the market for apartments last peaked.

And there are even more in the pipeline…

Across the Melbourne metropolitan area there were about 10,250 apartment completions last year, 19,250 under construction and 16,300 being marketed but not under construction.

Many off the plan purchasers will be disappointed.

The problem is that many Melbourne purchasers bought their off the plan apartments a few years ago during more buoyant times, and according to Charter Keck Kramer 8 out of 10 off-the-plan apartment sales coming up for completion over the next 2½ years could be facing negative equity.

Apartment prices across Melbourne have fallen between 7 per cent and 11 per cent in the past 12 months and even more than that in some areas of oversupply.

The potential problem for off-the-plan buyers is that on completion valuations will fall far short of their contract purchase price and the banks will only lend against the lower valuation. This means many buyers will have to bridge the gap coming up with the shortfall as well as the stamp duty and acquisition costs.

If history repeats itself, some buyers will try and walk away from their contracts, accepting the loss of their deposits. But they could be in for a rude surprise if the developer on sells the apartment at a lower price and sues the original purchaser for any loss.

Melbourne house and land sales are also in big trouble

One more thing: the new house and land market in Melbourne also has a huge oversupply.

According to real estate group Oliver Hume, there has been a 29% increase in the number of residential projects being marketed on Melbourne fringes since 2006 at a time when there is a 5% decline in the number of land settlements.

Land prices have now fallen for by a cumulative 16% over eight consecutive quarters forcing developers and marketing companies to entice first home buyers and property investors by offering substantial incentives.

At the same time as experiencing an oversupply of land, these areas are also lacking infrastructure and facilities meaning there will be no swift recovery in the outer-Melbourne residential new housing markets.

If you want to get an idea of the huge oversupply just hop on to RealEstate.com.au and type in Point Cook or Truganini and you’ll be shocked how many properties are for sale.

I’ll save you the trouble: Point Cook and surroundings – 3,482. Truganina- 4,020

And it’s much the same for many of the northern and western outer suburbs in Melbourne.

So why are the stats showing the Melbourne property market is rising?

Considering the outer suburbs are performing so poorly, the overall figures just show the strength of the established home and apartment market in Melbourne’s inner and middle ring suburbs where there is a shortage of good properties.

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au

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'Melbourne property market – the tale of two cities' have 68 comments

Hi Michael,
We live in Lynbrook now… we are planning to buy an investment for $ 550000 to 620000 next.
iam confused where I shud look. me and my partner has decided either Nunawading / Mitcham or Bentleigh east.
we have recently seen a property in BE which is a very old timber house for this price mentioned above.
shud we buy this or we shud look for unit which is new or in good condition ?
will unit have capital growth in these areas? shud I look for any specific things when I look for the investment property like school or trains near by?

Sue
it’s great that you’re looking to get into property investment and your first property is the most important – if you get it wrong it will stop you moving forward.
Melbourne is at a more mature stage of the property cycle – so you can’t expect the type of growth we experienced in the last few years again.
Of the suburbs you’ve mentioned I would buy in Bentleigh East because it’s so much closer to town than the others you mentioned, but your budget will not allow you to buy a house there – if you found one at that price it MUST be a secondary property.
So just choosing a suburb is not enough – if you buy the wrong property in that suburb, you’ll also lose out.

Ahev you thoight of getting the team at Metropole on your side – why not have a chat – click here

Is the west brunswick area over supplied with OTP apartments? Will it benefit from the underground metro train lines planned in a few years time? As the newer OTP apartments are not dense, will vacant rates stay low? Thanks

I am looking to buy a land in Tarneit and then build my home on it.
The land is in a well established estate and 3-4 kms from newly opened Tarneit station.
It’s a 378 m sq north facing land. The overall call to buy and build would be around 400-420K.
I am looking to move in to this house once complete as I live in a rental accommodation now.
Please let me know your thoughts on my decision.

Thanks for your article, I bought an off the plan property in 2012 for an investment in Maribyrnong, reading your blog now makes me kinda regret, do you think i should hold to it or sell it? I am also planning to get a landed property for myself to live in, thinking of these areas: Reservoir, Greensborough, Eltham, Vermont, Mitcham, would you suggest me to buy in these areas? or is there any surrounding suburbs (within 15 – 25 kms out of CBD) that you would suggest in terms of growth in value?

Jack
I don’t know your personal circumstances, or the property you bought in Maribyrnong, but the basic principle of an oversupply of off the plan properties still applies.
As for where to live – it has a lot more to do than choosing a suburb. You need to drill down further. In every suburb there are areas where you would live and areas which you would avoid

Reading all the feedback made me even more confused. I am looking at different areas around Melbourne (Maidstone, Moone Ponds) and have a budget of $500 000 (first time buyer) What would your advise be on buying off plan?

Michael
Really appreciate your prompt reply. I work part time earn around 45k and my husband earn $65k. We live in 3 bedroom unit in Bentleigh and owe $505 as mortgage to bank and pay interest only. I am planning to use equity ($65k) to use towards deposit for apartment. So stamp duty saving and depreciation claim in tax money is significant to me. Now I am thinking to invest may be small established or off the plan in suburb with high capital growth. I have made 12.5% per annum capital growth on my property in Bentleigh in two years.

You can now see the power of buying the right property in the right area, but you also have to buy at the correct price. The stamp duty savings isn’t enough to make up for the overpayment and lack of capital growth

I am reading your book about property tax and law. All was fine until I reached chapter nine where you mentioned to steer away from off the plan new apartments. I signed contract for my first investment property for a one bedroom off the plan apartment for $459k at Victoria at in Richmond. It will be ready by mid 2015. I have to pay balance of 10% deposit very soon and I am in two minds now. Buying off the plan saves stamp duty cost and saves tax by claiming depreciation on fittings and appliances but I am wondering how much rent will I get considering there is going to be oversupply of apartments in that area. Shall I cancel my contract if I have an option? Shall I look to buy established apartment in same area?

Sonia
I don’t know your circumstances nor the apartment so I can’t give specific advice.
I can say that I’d avoid the Richmond area at present because of an oversupply of apartments and $495k for a 1 bedroom apartment sounds expensive to me

Hi Michael,
My brother just bought an investment property in Glen Waverley. It is however not in school zone area but sit on a nice 650m2 block and the house is in a good condition with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. What is your thought on this suburb and the future growth in this area?

Ronnie
Glen Waverley has always been a “solid” performer – with around average capital growth.
However, your question brings up an interesting point.
Just because a suburb has good capital growth prospects, not every property is an “investment grade” property.
Like every suburb, there are better and less preferable locations within the suburb and while the “school zone” is preferred you need to pay a premium to buy there.
I don’t know where in the suburb your brother’s property is located – because of poor public transport in Glen Waverley – close to transport of the shopping centre would be preferable. Nor do I know what he paid for it.
I hope he does well with his inevestment

Hi Michael,
I am a foreign investor looking at a studio apartment in Abbotsford near Richmond. The developer is offering rental guarantee for 2 years. The projects will be completed in 2 years time from now. Will the oversupply of properties in Melbourne lead to capital depreciation regardless of the close proximity to city area? This is for rental investment for the first few years and thereafter do you think capital appreciation will happen?

Hi Michael, I recently bought a one bedroom apartment in Melb city right next to a uni. I was very happy with it as it’s a decent size 70sqm unit with a west facing balcony… until I found out how many big skyscrapers are going to be built around. Frens have been very opposed to buying in city as they claim of oversupply. But I thought regardlessly, the spacious of the apartment as well as comes with a car park with separate title, it could be worth to hold on to it? Hence I bought it. And now just been dealing with roller coaster kind of emotions, one side believing that it’s not a bad investment while another side being affected by all kinds of news, comments about how the city is going to end up like a dark, wind tunnels. What is your opinion? I have consulted a few agents and they believe I will have no problem getting it tenanted due to its strategic location, but I am just not sure how much will it be affected by the big blocks going up around it, especially mine is on fourth level, west facing.

Thanks for the question Alec.
While you may have no difficulty finding a tenant the strong competition for the newer apartment blocks, plus the glut of apartments for rent may mean you will get little growth in rents and poor (if any) capital growth for a while.
That may be why your friends were against buying in the city

My Son is going to melbourne U next year.
As a foreigner, I can only buy off-plan project but the prices are high when the developers launch their project overseas. I would not want to buy at inflated price despite the overbuilt situation in Melbourne.

How can I make use of your service to get a property that is accessible to Melbourne U while my son is there for the next two years and yet easy to rented out after he left.

How can a foreigner buy at market price when the market price is lower that the off-plan price?

Thanks for your question YT
Unfortunately our regulations mean that foreign residents cannot buy established properties, and you are correct – buying off the plan or new projects means you’re paying a premium and will have little or no growth for a number of years.
That’s a real pity for you – I’m sorry there is no simple answer

You’re right Jane. Not only is it the hardest- but the most important.
If you get it wrong, then the learning fee is very, very expensive – that’s why so few get past their first property.
I’m going to give you the same advice I gave my son who bought his first investment property today, “if you’re the smartest person on your team you’re in trouble.” Why are you trying to do it on your own when you could get the team at Metropole on your side to level the playing field – we have no properties for sale, so our advice is independent and unbiased.

Thank you very much for the very informative read.
I am currently looking to buy my first property. As many before me, I cannot afford to buy what I want where I want it (South Yarra) – therefore looking to create a solid portfolio over the next few years and keep renting in the meanwhile. I have 150K at the moment. Looking to invest 100K in a townhouse in a growth area, keep saving and get another property in a year or two. At the moment my top choice is Preston, also considering Footscray, West Footscray, Newport. This is the easy option as a newish townhouse would require less maintenance and rent should be reasonable. Do you think this is a good strategy?
The other option is get a house with some land, hold it for a while, get approval to subdivide in the future. Areas are the same, but house quality would not be as good due to budget, therefore rental income will be limited – unless I invest in renovations.

Jane
I don’t kow your personal circumstances, so I can’t give you specific advice, but some general info…

I would not invest in most of the suburbs you suggested. They are unlikely to be the one’s that outperform the market.

I have no issue with buying a townhouse – great investments – but must be int he right street in the right suburb.
I also like the concept of value add – doing a reno. Subdivision is also a form of value add – but you have to buy the right type of block.

Michael but everytime I read about apartments the more it comes to me as a bad investment..They charge body corporate fees which means all your rental is gone and those fees are subject to change, then theres the oversupply which would make it hard to sell and rent later down the track which may affect capital growth.. I really need advice, I want to buy, I have 400,000 and im looking for good capital growth. can you suggest me good areas/ street where I can purchase an apartment which will grow in capital where there isn’t going to be an oversupply of new apartments

Peter
The body corporate should only be paying for the type of fees you’d pay yourself if you owned a sinlge property. Insurance, maintenance etc.
There are some great locations in your budget, but I can’t give you personal advice over the internet. It would be wrong to do so.
Have you considered becoming a client of Metropole http://metropole.com.au – we’d love to help you chose a top performing property

Hi Smule
Brunswick is a good suburb, close to town with good growth prospects, but just like every suburb, there are patches that I’d be happy buying in and other areas I’d avoid.
If you can find an established property to which you could add some value, that would be even better

Hi Michael,
What would be a good investment for someone who has a saving of 100K and intend to invest in property? I have no morgage and own my house, and stable job. I earn about 90k a year. I appreciate your input as i am not sure what would be my best option. Any particular suburb suits my situation?

John
Thanks for the question. The problem is that it’s not the kind of question I can give you a good answer to with out knowing a lot more about you and your risk tolerance, your time frame, your goals and aspirations.
But the simple answer is you should be buying a property that will grow in value so you can buy further properties down the track. You’ll see from my other blogs that this is usually an established apartment in the middle ring suburbs – one with a “twist” that makes it special and one to which you can add some value.
Why not have an obligation free chat with the team at Metropole who will discuss your options with you: http://www.metropole.com.au/property-investment-australia/investor-enquiry-form/

David. Thanks for your question.
I’ve lived in Melbourne for 57 years and don’t know where Kuranjang is. I’d definitely avoid that type of area. It’s exactly what I’m talking about in this blog.
That’s the type of property that is more likely to underperform in the long term

Hello Michael,
Your article is a thought provoking read – thank you.
I am looking to invest in an apartment close to Melbourne for both capital appreciation and rental return for next 5/7 years.
I was about to put an offer on an off the plan 2BR, 2Bath & 1 car park apartment very close to Blackburn station and shops. This block would have about 80 apartments. Your comments got me rethink.
I also have an option of putting offer to a 2BR, 1 Bath & 1 Car apartment in Hawthorn very close to Auburn station (the price will be a little more than Blackburn). I guess your suggestion is kind of negative for those inner suburbs.
I would appreciate if you could you help me with my thoughts?

Chandradeep
Thanks for your question. I don’t know your circumstances, so I can only speak in generalities rather then give you advice.

Blackburn is a great family suburb – NOT one where I’d buy an apartment and definitely not off the plan in a block of 80.

On the other hand Hawthorn is a great suburb with lot’s going for it. Again I would not buy a new or off the plan apartment there, but I would be happy to consider a well located established apartment in Hawthorn

I am planning to buy a property in Australia for investment purpose and the agent recommended ‘Viva Concavo’ at Melbourne city near Bourke Street. This is the new high-end development in the Victoria Harbour. A mid-floor 2bed rooms with 2 bedrooms unit costs around AUD900,000 and the unit will be competed around mid-2015. Estimated weekly rental is AUD700 per week. Agent said that future capital appreciation is high.
Is this a good investment choice in Melbourne?

Rebecca
I don’t know your circumstances, so while I can’t advise you personally I can say that the type f property you are considering does not make a good investment.
It sounds expensive and currently there is a HUGE oversupply of this type of property, meaning no capital growth and difficulty finding tenants

I booked a studio unit in upper west side postal code vic3000 that cost 301k with a size of 36sm on mid floor. Price includes stamp duty n 5k worth of furniture. First year is 6.5% rental guaranteed. I would like to know if this property is a good long-term investment for rental n whether I should go with loan or pay outright ? Thanks, James

Hello Michael,
I will be buying my first property soon. What I thought is that rather than buying a house as Ppol I should buy an investment property near university like in clayton or footscray which I could rent to students and get higher return and at the same time hope the property appreciates. In the mean time I could stay on rent in a suburb close to my job which is not close to either suburb I wrote. What is your view on this and especially clayton or nottinghill area close to monash university.
Regards
Rahul

Rahul
Congratulations for your decision to get into property.
I agree with the concept of renting where you want to live, but can’t afford to and then buying an investment property.
However your job as an investor should be to grow your asset base – you do that through capital growth and both suburbs you mentioned have under performed over the long term. In my opinion student lettings are not the way to go. Sure you’ll get a little more rent, but you’re forgoing tax free capital growth

Helloo Michael,
Thanks for your reply. you are absolutely right about the suburbs average rise for clayton, nottinghill and also footscray plus CGT on investment property. What are your thoughts on Nunawading/Mitcham area which was my second choice. Looking to buy a bigger plot and later on subdividing it. Only problem there is cheap and bigger don’t have train station close to it but if area is good I reckon. I am looking to invest only around $5,00,000. Please advise on any area you think is worth investing.
Thanks in advance.
Warm Regards
Rahul

Thanks for the good read. As a lender who educates clients on lending strategies to enable wealth creation, alot of our clients are seeking advocates with a national scope rather than a specialised one due to the target continually moving, what are your thoughts on the national property markets and how they are going to perform on a state to state basis and which one will give the biggest bang for $$ over the next 5 years? Clearly outside this its becoming too hard to read and educate on.

Thanks for the comment Mark
I’ll give a state by state round up of the Australian property markets in a future newsletter – that’s a bit too detailed for a response here.
In summary though – our markets are very fragmented and generally lower growth

is “investor only” type property a good option to invest while you are not living in Australia? guarantee return of say net 5%. in good location say melbourne city or along st kilda road? owner may be able to occupy after 10 to 5 years once the lease to mantra, quest , seasons etc are expired. I am considering to invest and buy a property in melbourne, so that my children can use or for me to retire in australia 15 to 20 years from now when i decided to come back to Australia. please advise which suburb is good to invest. i like property with land.

Vince
Thanks for the question.
No serviced apartments (which is what you’re describing) do not make good investments.
Historically they have had poor capital growth.
By the way…banks don’t like lending against them. This means they require more of your capital to buy them, and they’re hard to sell if you need to because purchasers have difficulty with finance.

Hi,
Is buying an inner city apartment with good address ( ie spring street / south bank / st kilda ) , a wise investment decision for mid – long term in Melbourne. ( min 5 years ) even if it’s OTP ? As compared to other streets / areas?.
I am currently looking for a mid – long term investment. And hv went thru afew display suites. So far, I hv observed that, by 2017, there will be many new “tall & savvy design” condo developments with more than 3000 units, , most of them relatively small & are near either uni / market / shopping areas of inner Melb city. And most sizes are tailored for student / family kinda investors.
Back in my home a apartment on a well known street still commands a certain Value even when the market falls.

Thanks for the good question.
Yes your home apartment will maintain SOME value, but it may still fall in value – OUCH!
What’s the highest and best use of your money.
If you can only own one or 2 properties you want them to be the best performing properties. While property is definitely a medium to long term investment, in today’s market with low capital growth, you need to outperform the averages.
You can’t afford to forgo the first few years capital growth by giving it to the developer in the form of inflated purchase price

Maggie
I would definitely hold off buying inner city apartments and steer clear of some inner suburbs where their is an oversupply.
On the other hand, I can’t see prices of well located established apartments with good floor plans, in the middle and better inner ring suburbs falling any time soon

Greg
The top end of the Melbourne property market is picking up a little, and will slowly continue to do so as the economy and business confidence pick up. But this market is segment is very savvy and selective

Edward
I don’t now your personal situation, so I can’t advise whether you should sell or not.
What I can tell you is that Tarneit is likely to under perform for some time. There is a huger oversupply of properties there . Just look on realestate.com.au – they suggest there are 3,364 properties for sale in the area. Yet people don’t wake up in the morning and think “Gee I’d really love to live in Tarneit!”

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