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Saturday, January 11, 2014

College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 11, 2014 edition)

I have seen enough…it is time to fully transition my
Field of 68 to a “based on what has happened thus far” methodology. Teams are now establishing resumes that can
be compared and contrasted, especially as conference play hits high gear here
in January. It will also allow for a
more fluid movement of teams based on current results vs future
expectations. One trend I was beginning
to see was the opening up of the last few spots in the field. The teams that looked like they were ready to
grab those spots based on decent non-conference showings have come out and
looked like NIT teams at best. So here
is the Field of 68 as I have it as of today.

The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and
Iowa State

The four undefeated teams from the major conferences
occupy these spots. I see Michigan State
some places, but if the tournament started today, Iowa State has a better
schedule, better wins and did not lose to a 5-loss North Carolina team.

The 2’s – Michigan State, Ohio State,
Wichita State and Villanova

This
group consists of the remaining undefeated team (Wichita State), a one-loss
leader of the 3rd rated conference (Villanova) and the two one-loss
teams from the Big Ten that will be in play for a #1 seed all season long.

The 3’s – Florida, Oklahoma State, Colorado
and Kansas

The
best 2-loss teams in the country lead this group. Florida has started to look the part of a
higher seed and is the class of the SEC.
Oklahoma State has a couple good wins (Colorado, Memphis), but is
teetering on a slight fall with the loss of Michael Cobbins. Colorado has wins over Kansas and Oregon and
is establishing themselves as Arizona’s chief competition for the PAC-12
title. I debated over the last #3 right
now, but went with Kansas. The Jayhawks
have 4 losses, but with an RPI sitting at #2, a collection of really good wins
and no bad losses, I feel the committee will reward the Jayhawks for playing
the schedule they took on. As it
currently sits, there is no team with an RPI over 200 on their entire schedule,
played and un-played.

The 4’s – Baylor, Oregon, San Diego State
and Massachusetts

Baylor
and Oregon are 2-loss teams whose wins are not quite as good as teams on the
3-line. Both teams have the
non-conference resumes to be seeded higher if they can get it going in league
play. Finally, the 1-loss leaders of the
Mountain West and Atlantic 10 gain the last two 4’s. Both of these conferences are well-respected
and the Aztecs have a victories over Kansas and Creighton in their pocket,
while the Minutemen sit at #4 in the RPI.

The 5’s – Cincinnati, Kentucky, Duke and
Memphis

While
the SOS #’s never love Cincinnati, they have wins over Pittsburgh, Memphis and
NC State and lead the AAC. The
discussion of playing teams with RPI’s in the 300’s vs those in the low 200’s
is for another day. Kentucky has quietly
righted the ship and has 6 top 100 wins.
Duke is a bit of an enigma, but has played a decent schedule and owns
wins over Michigan and UCLA. I don’t
love them here yet, but I have a hard time seeing the committee putting Xavier
ahead of them with the same amount of losses.
Memphis, with wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville grabs the last 5
spot.

The 6’s – Xavier, Creighton, Pittsburgh and
Iowa

The
Musketeers are quietly putting together a good season, with wins over
Tennessee, Cincinnati and Wake Forest.
Not sure what happened in the Bahamas, but the rest of the season has
been solid. Creighton and Pittsburgh
have strong records, but haven’t really beaten a string of quality
opponents. Both teams have upward mobility
if they start doing that in conference play.
Iowa has lost to Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin, and you see where
those teams sit. The Xavier and Notre
Dame wins are nice enough to grab the last 6.

The 7’s – Louisville, Gonzaga, Missouri and New
Mexico

If not
for North Carolina, Louisville would be the biggest seeding conundrum of the
Field. They are the defending champs and
have only 3 losses, but when Southern Miss is by far your best win? Gonzaga gets some computer love, but the WCC
is not helping them and the loss to Portland does not either. Missouri has the ugly loss to Georgia, but
decent wins vs UCLA, NC State and West Virginia make them a difficult 2-loss
team to seed. New Mexico has similar
computer numbers to Gonzaga, but a better win than the Zags (Cincinnati) and no
bad losses.

The 8’s – Connecticut, Michigan, North
Carolina and Kansas State

Connecticut
had a bad trip to the State of Texas, but still has that Florida win to hang
their hat on. Michigan has a rising
profile now that they have started to play well sans Mitch McGary, with good
wins over Florida State and Minnesota.
Right now I am pegging North Carolina here, as the 5 losses are not
pretty, but the wins over Michigan State, Kentucky and Louisville? are. Kansas State has a nice little run going,
including wins over Gonzaga and Oklahoma State.

The 9’s – Tennessee, UCLA, Virginia and
Illinois

Tennessee
has beaten Xavier, Virginia and Wake Forest for a nice little collection of
wins. UCLA looks the part, but UCSB is
the best win to date. Virginia started
slow, but has come on as of late. Wins
over Florida State, SMU and Wake Forest is the start of a good collection. Illinois is a better version of UCLA on the
computers, with the win over Missouri to boot.

The 10’s – VCU, Minnesota, Florida State and
St. Louis

The
Atlantic 10 finds two teams on this line, both who have some upward
potential. VCU has to add to their win
over Virginia and St. Louis is still looking for its first top 50 win. Minnesota and Florida State join them, each
with middling resumes that could take them either way at this point.

The 11’s – Harvard, Southern Miss,
Georgetown and Dayton

Harvard’s
spot is always difficult to gauge, but I figure somewhere right around where
the bubble decisions really start, as they would be in that discussion if they
were an at-large. Southern Miss is very
similar to Harvard in resume. Both teams
could see a bump back to the 12 line if the bottom of the at-large field
solidifies itself. Georgetown is another
team that is tough to figure out, while Dayton has to hope the Gonzaga win
stays strong and they can add some quality A-10 wins to it.

UWGB is
an auto bid. Cal enters the field after
a huge road win at Oregon. George
Washington is still on solid footing with the Creighton win and 5 top-100
victories. The last 3, I basically threw
darts at. I feel a Big 12 team
(Oklahoma, Texas or West Virginia) is destined for the first four this year,
with the overall strength of the conference, but someone has to be around .500
in league play. SMU is in the top 50 in
RPI, KenPom, Sagarin and BPI, despite only the win over UConn. Finally, Arizona State edges out some of the
ACC and SEC bubble teams, as well as St. Mary’s and Boise State at this
point. The Sun Devils are top 40 in 3 of
the rating systems and just need to boost up their RPI.