China

Are you interested in this topic? Then you really should consider buying my Birth Pangs series! That’s what the series is about…

As I’ve mentioned before, some readers of my series have indicated that they see resemblances in my series with some recent developments in the United States. This article by a Russian analyst predicting the disintegration of the United States in 2010 brought in a couple of comments by readers.

So what do I think?

Well, I won’t rule anything out. Anything can happen and can happen quickly if circumstances are right. In the Birth Pangs series, it took between thirty and fifty years for events to unfold. That remains in my mind much more plausible. What Igor Panarin’s analysis omits is a catalyst of any kind. In the Birth Pangs series, it was the destruction by atomic bomb of Washington DC. I don’t see current events trending towards a disintegration any time soon without a suitable catalyst.

We also have to factor in logistics. Panarin proposes that Russia will take back Alaska and that the Chinese will take the western side of the United States. But in either case, for this to be accomplished, there have to be boots on the ground. For Russia/Alaska, this isn’t very difficult. But for China to dispatch the number of troops needed to occupy and subjugate the American West, there have to be transport vessels, a navy to defend those transports, and then suitable staging areas. Without a catalyst leading to a massive debilitation of the American military, such conditions are unattainable in the near-term. At best, China could stage an invasion from Mexico.

It is that kind of scenario that the Birth Pangs series envisions but even then Mexico has to want to go along with the Chinese. My series explains why Mexico goes along with the Chinese. it is odd that Panarin thinks that the Mexicans wouldn’t take California and Arizona for themselves. Why would La Raza allow that?

Also, without the needful catalyst, it is difficult to imagine any kind of dissolution being followed by international occupation. Panarin underestimates the cultural homogeneity that exists in this country. I have relatives in numerous states in the union and have no particular loyalty to one American state over another. To the extent that those in the US have rivalries, they are fairly benign, of the University of Michigan versus The Worthless Ohio Buckeyes type or the Packers versus the Bears or Dallas versus Everyone. This is profoundly different than the British/Irish rivalry and Chechnya and Georgia versus Russia.

The American Civil War was over something of real substance and not on petty ethnic grounds. Slavery was a suitable catalyst- no such catalyst is imminent… at least not as long as Hawaii keeps its iron grip on certain birth records.

Another thing Panarin underestimates is the Constitutional right to bear arms. The fact that there are a lot of guns in this country might support a civil war hypothesis it weakens a foreign invader hypothesis- again assuming there isn’t a catalyst, and in this aspect, one that disarms the average citizen. Foreign invaders would find it difficult to subdue the American people. One finds themselves almost wishing someone would try to attack Texas. I mean, good luck.

Finally, much has been said about the thinning of the American military but this isn’t really accurate. Yes, we have American soldiers spread throughout the world but barring a global EMP assault (which would also undermine foreign armies) these soldiers could be quickly recalled. Not only that, but the fact that they’ve been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan means that American soldiers have something that most of the world’s armies do not have- battle hardened troops both at home and abroad.

Finally, thinking in Panarin’s terms, I see no reason why the upper midwest and the East coast wouldn’t remain largely untouched. Canada isn’t known to be expansionist and precisely what European countries could conceivably lay a hand on the East coast beyond New York, where the only armed people are cops and criminals? Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia, etc, are easily a match to Eurpean attackers.

So, all in all, assuming things continue as they have been with no catalysts, I must pronounce Panarin’s hypothesis as untenable, and the similarities to the Birth Pangs series passing and superficial.