000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
A strong low pressure system will be moving through the northwest
portions of the State today. The attendant pressure gradient is
very tight creating some rather strong low level winds. These
winds are expected to mix down to the surface which will make for
a very windy day today, especially along and west of I-35. Some
blowing dust is also possible this afternoon and ground conditions
remain extremely dry. This set up will allow temperatures to be
above normal for most of the CWA today. The only exception will be
along the I-70 corridor where temperatures are expected to be a
little closer to normal. Normally, a frontal system like the one
moving through the region today would bring some moisture to the
region. Unfortunately, the only area that looks to have any chance
for rain today will be the far eastern areas of Kansas today. The
winds will die down around sunset this evening as the pressure
gradient begins to slacken.
By Saturday, the cold front will be moving through and will kick
the flow around to the north. This will bring temperatures back
down closer to normal for this time of year. This northerly flow
will not last very long as the winds are expected to shift back
around to the south. This will allow for some moisture transport
to take place over the region ahead of the next system.
Unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico will be closed off for most of
Sunday and Monday which will prevent any significant Gulf moisture
from getting into the region. There does appear to be enough
forcing with this next system to allow for some good chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Some areas could see some of the best rain so far this year. The
only fly in the ointment at this time is the fact the Gulf of
Mexico is shut off from Saturday on which would normally make it
very difficult for the needed moisture to get into the region. So
confidence is not great for the rain event for Sunday night and
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Temperatures will cool down again Tuesday behind the front and
will be much closer to normal for the most part. Winds will kick
back around to the south by Wednesday and will allow WAA to take
hold over the region once again. Temperatures are expected to rise
above normal for the rest of the week. Rain chances for the end of
next week look minimal at best.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
A deep cyclone will move from northwest Kansas this morning to
northwest Missouri tonight. Strong south to southwest winds will
prevail this morning through midday before gradually veering
westerly during the afternoon and then turn northwest this
evening. The strongest winds are expected this afternoon and early
evening before diminishing tonight. MVFR cigs will affect
southeast Kansas until mid-morning ahead of the surface dry-line.
Some restriction to VSBY is possible in blowing dust this
afternoon across south central and parts of central Kansas, though
generally remaining VFR. Some stratocu VFR bases may affect
central Kansas early this evening.
KED
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
The continued very dry conditions and the high winds today, will
bring many areas of the CWA into the catastrophic category. The
catastrophic category is expected to prevalent along large areas
of the CWA along and west of I-35 between I-70 and US-160 and
including Greenwood, Elk and Chautauqua counties. The remaining
areas of the CWA will be in the extreme category. The highest
winds are expected between 11AM to 7PM today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 75 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 71 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 71 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 75 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 76 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 61 30 62 36 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 63 30 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 67 33 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 70 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 80 40 63 38 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 77 39 60 37 / 10 0 0 0
Iola 75 38 58 37 / 20 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 81 39 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...ELM