Monday, November 2, 2009

The Phillies are hanging by a thread, and we're about to see if Charlie Manuel made the right decision by resting Cliff Lee fully and Girardi made the wrong one with short rest for Sabathia/Burnett.

Of the remaining scenarios, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have a 53% to do the former, and only a 25% of the latter. If it does go to Game Seven, it will be the single-game Log 5 probability, with the Yankees having the advantage, of course (as you see below).

World Series

H PWP

A PWP

Win

Next Game only

Phillies

0.553

0.592

78%

47%

Yankees

0.621

0.571

22%

53%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Fret not, Yankees fans: Log 5 Probability is on your side! After a home split leaving the Series at 1-1, the Yankees advantage has only slightly moved down from the first day. A home loss basically dropped their win probability for the Series from 56% to 54%.

Additionally, if you look at the Yankees' winning percentage on the road vs. the Phillies' percentage at home--all of a sudden, home not so sweet home for the Phanatics: .571 vs. .553. I will admit, though, that the number as calculated does NOT take into account the fact that the Yanks winning percentage during the season was accomplished with the DH, not the pitcher, as will be the case in Philadelphia. But it still goes to show that the Yankees are by no means down away from home.

Of the remaining scenarios, 5-game, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have the advantage in all of them by roughly 3%-5%, with the most likely outcome being a 7-game Series in which the Yankees have about a 3% chance better than the Phillies to win.

World Series

H PWP

A PWP

Win

Next Game only

Phillies

0.553

0.592

46%

48%

Yankees

0.621

0.571

54%

52%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Hello fellow baseball travellers, and welcome to the World Series! My friends who favor the Cubs are probably not bothering with this series, but my fellow New Yorkers have brought out their Yankees paraphernalia in full force: World Series-mania has hit the Big Apple with a vengeance. Will A-Rod become the new Mr. October? Will Derek Jeter continue his mastery of November? Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett finally bring peace to the long-suffering Gothamites (well, they haven't won either in this century or in this millennium after all...)?

Well, the City of Brothelly Love will certainly try to keep that suffering going longer. What do the numbers say? Well, Yankee's fans, this is your year. I almost didn't even bother running the numbers, thinking it was extremely lop-sided. It actually isn't. While the Bronx Bombers have a 56% chance of winning the Series, that is certainly not the highest probability I've ever seen. I was surprised to find that the Phillies have an excellent Away record (check out the table below), and that the Yankees are a little vulnerable there. Even though they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, it's only slightly better.

If the Phillies win the first game, it gives them an immediate 61% of taking the series. Of course if the Yanks win it'll be even more dire for the Sons of the Liberty Bell: New York would have a commanding 70/30 chance to win the Series.

Game on!

World Series

H PWP

A PWP

Win

Sweep

Phillies

0.553

0.592

44%

5%

Yankees

0.621

0.571

56%

8%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Last month I posted the table you see below. This is how pure stats, using Bill James' Win Shares (though with the Hardball Times version of Win Shares Above Bench--that is, the difference between the player and an average bench player) predicts the upcoming season. I will take this information, and argue where the stats might be pulling a Disraeli. I reproduce the table from the previous post again:

AL

EAST

2008 WP

2008 P WP

P W+new

P L

Win Shares Net

Tampa Bay

.600

.572

99

63

2

Boston

.588

.600

98

64

2

NY Yankees

.550

.539

92

70

3

Toronto

.531

.573

82

80

-4

Baltimore

.421

.452

69

93

1

CENTRAL

Minnesota

.544

.552

90

72

2

Chicago Sox

.541

.551

88

74

0

Cleveland

.500

.527

83

79

2

Detroit

.459

.482

76

86

1

Kansas City

.463

.441

74

88

0

WEST

LA Angels

.619

.545

98

64

-2

Oakland

.472

.470

81

81

4

Texas

.488

.466

73

89

-6

Seattle

.369

.402

56

106

-3

NL

EAST

Philadelphia

.563

.577

93

69

2

NY Mets

.550

.556

92

70

3

Florida

.522

.502

85

77

0

Atlanta

.444

.481

76

86

4

Washington

.371

.379

61

101

1

CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

.604

.619

97

65

-1

Houston

.535

.481

85

77

-1

St. Louis

.525

.530

83

79

-2

Milwaukee

.556

.544

81

81

-9

Cincinnati

.463

.442

75

87

0

Pittsburgh

.413

.406

67

95

0

WEST

LA Dodgers

.522

.541

85

77

1

Arizona

.500

.508

81

81

0

Colorado

.463

.454

74

88

-1

San Francisco

.440

.413

74

88

3

San Diego

.388

.412

63

99

1

Let's start at the top with the AL East. I've looked at the predictions by many of the mainstream sportswriters, like ESPN and Sports Illustrated, and they seem to really discount the Tampa Bay Rays chances. 90% of them seem to think the Yankees are going to somehow end up in first place, with the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. I'll go with the stats and say that the Yankees are basically a 3rd place team in this division. They just did not gain enough to really outdo what they lost from last year (Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, mostly). I do think, though, that the Red Sox will come in 1st place, followed by the Rays, who should get the Wild Card, though it will be close and the same finish as last year could certainly happen again.

In the Central, I fear the White Sox will not have enough to get them to 1st place again, and will fall behind both the Twins and the Indians, but it will be close among the three the whole season. If Mauer stays healthy, along with Morneau, and Liriano can make a comeback--it's the Twins in the playoffs. If Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona do what they've done in the past, it could be Cleveland. And if the White Sox again over-achieve under Ozzie Guillen, they could steal some October time again.

In the West, it's simple: all Angels--they have no real competition unless disaster strikes.

In the NL East, the stats show a dog-fight between the Mets and the Phillies. I was surprised that Frankie Rodriguez was only worth 7 win shares above bench, considering he set a Saves record. I think the one game statistical difference might be made up by the fact that the Mets will win more games they lead after the 8th inning than they did last year (they lost 11 of these) and that the Phillies will lose more of these (they lost NONE--Brad Lidge had a career season!). Figure Lidge to lose a couple games this year and the Mets to do better under Frankie K. It won't really matter because the runner-up in this division will still move to the playoffs.

Despite the gloom and doom in Cubdom, it will take some major disasters for the Cubs to not make the playoffs again, and of course their problem is how far they will go after they make it. I think they at least get past the first round this year. The Reds might be the most improved in this division, but I still think that St. Louis, under an always-overachieving LaRussa team will still come in 2nd followed by the Brewers.

If Manny decides to go back to being Manny (meaning the Boston Manny), the Dodgers could lose to a good Arizona team, but more than likely, Manny will take his bat into October again.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)

Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)

Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)

a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL

EAST

2008 WP

2008 P WP

P W+new

P L

Win Shares Net

Tampa Bay

.600

.572

99

63

2

Boston

.588

.600

98

64

2

NY Yankees

.550

.539

92

70

3

Toronto

.531

.573

82

80

-4

Baltimore

.421

.452

69

93

1

CENTRAL

Minnesota

.544

.552

90

72

2

Chicago Sox

.541

.551

88

74

0

Cleveland

.500

.527

83

79

2

Detroit

.459

.482

76

86

1

Kansas City

.463

.441

74

88

0

WEST

LA Angels

.619

.545

98

64

-2

Oakland

.472

.470

81

81

4

Texas

.488

.466

73

89

-6

Seattle

.369

.402

56

106

-3

NL

EAST

Philadelphia

.563

.577

93

69

2

NY Mets

.550

.556

92

70

3

Florida

.522

.502

85

77

0

Atlanta

.444

.481

76

86

4

Washington

.371

.379

61

101

1

CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

.604

.619

97

65

-1

Houston

.535

.481

85

77

-1

St. Louis

.525

.530

83

79

-2

Milwaukee

.556

.544

81

81

-9

Cincinnati

.463

.442

75

87

0

Pittsburgh

.413

.406

67

95

0

WEST

LA Dodgers

.522

.541

85

77

1

Arizona

.500

.508

81

81

0

Colorado

.463

.454

74

88

-1

San Francisco

.440

.413

74

88

3

San Diego

.388

.412

63

99

1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly.

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.