A Pound of Flesh: How Much Weight You’ll Gain Over the Holidays

Worried about holiday weight gain? Apart from the obvious — eat a little less, exercise a little more — the Health Blog can’t help you. But, thanks to the magic of science, we can tell you just how much weight you’re likely to gain.

First, check out this 2006 Thanksgiving study from Nutrition Journal. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma weighed 94 students before and after Thanksgiving break. They found that the students gained just over one pound, on average, with only a small difference between men and women.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a more significant difference emerged when they compared students who were overweight and obese versus those who were not: The overweight gained about two pounds during Thanksgiving, while those with healthy weights gained only about half a pound, an increase that wasn’t statistically significant.

Now, take a look at this holiday weight gain study published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2000. Researchers followed more than 150 people over the course of a year. During the six-week holiday period, people gained about three-quarters of a pound, on average.

That’s a more rosy estimate than the Oklahoma study. But most of the participants in the NEJM study worked at the National Institutes of Health, so they may be health conscious than the average American.

The NEJM study also found that people don’t tend to lose the weight they gain over the holidays. (No kidding.) As a result, the authors suggest, the holiday season may be a key contributor to long-term weight gain in adults.