30 December 2002,
Rome/Addis Ababa -- More than 11 million people in
Ethiopia are facing serious food shortages and possible
starvation, following a prolonged dry spell that led to a poor
harvest in many parts of the country, according to a joint
report released today by the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

"Late, poorly distributed and
early cessation of the 2002 seasonal rains were the main cause
of the decline of grain production," the report
concluded. Crop yields also fell because farmers were reluctant
to invest in improved seeds and fertilizer due to the uncertain
crop prospects. According to the report, depressed grain prices
in 2001 further contributed to this year's poor harvest,
particularly in western Ethiopia where there were large
surpluses.

Based on a four-week joint crop
and food supply assessment mission which visited all regions of
the country in November and December, the FAO/WFP report
indicates that sharp increases in grain prices occurred in the
second half of 2002, with the prospect of a poor harvest. To
manage the negative effects of such fluctuating grain prices -
for both farmers and consumers - the report calls for mechanisms
to strengthen price stabilization, such as storage facilities
and marketing.

Although the drought
affected the lowlands most severely, the report says
Ethiopia's major cereal producing zones have also been hit,
seriously cutting cereal production by 20 to 30 percent. Poor
rainfall in the eastern and north-eastern pastoral areas reduced
available pasture and water. According to the report, rising
livestock deaths prompted an early migration of herds and
livestock prices dropped by as much as 50 percent.

FAO and WFP estimate the 2002 cereal and pulse
production at about 9.2 million tonnes, 25 percent below last
year's harvest. As a result, Ethiopia will need to import
2.3 million tonnes of cereals in 2003. With commercial imports
forecast at 328 000 tonnes, the deficit stands at 1.8 million
tonnes. This deficit will have to be covered by a combination of
emergency food aid and bilateral donations.

The FAO/WFP report is in line with the results of a
government led multi-agency emergency needs assessment carried
out last month, which estimated the total number of people in
need of emergency assistance at 11.3 million people. The
government and the UN jointly appealed for some 1.4 million
tonnes of emergency food aid.

In many
lowland and pastoral areas of Ethiopia, people have barely
enough food to last for even one to two months. Millions of
subsistence farmers and herders will soon face a desperate
situation.