Trump is expected to announce a nominee in the first weeks of his presidency—with much fanfare. During the campaign, he released a list of 21 potential judges from which he would ultimately choose one important name.

Not since 1948, with the non-election of Thomas Dewey, have the polls been so wrong. Just as in 1948, however, the problem does not rest in the field of statistics, but rather in the field of research methodology.

Everything I knew was going to happen did not happen. Everything I understood about America I did not understand. Like most other members of the commentariat, I had no idea what I was talking about. I repent in dust and ashes.