Alberta could play new role in today's federal election

Elections Canada employee Stephanie Haskey fills ballot boxes with polling station materials in preparation for Monday's federal election. The office in southeast Calgary was busy with last minute details on the weekend.Gavin Young / Calgary Herald

After an unprecedented 11-week federal election campaign, Albertans will help make history Monday as they cast their ballots.

If the Conservatives win, Calgary’s Stephen Harper will have extended his decade in office and pulled off a rare feat in Canadian politics — four straight election victories as prime minister.

But Harper faces the threat of being unseated by Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau — the son of a former prime minister — while the leader of a party that has never held power nationally — the NDP’s Tom Mulcair — also retains hope for an upset.

Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said whatever the outcome, there has never in modern times been such a competitive federal race in Alberta.

“Normally it was a slam dunk, a shut out,” Taras said of previous elections.

“Conservatives never had to look over their shoulder … they never had to wonder the day before an election who would win.”

In contrast, a handful of seats in both Edmonton and Calgary are expected to be in play Monday.

There are 34 seats in the province and 338 ridings across the country.

More than 26 million Canadians are eligible to vote in the election, and polling stations are open in Alberta from 7:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m. Monday.

The shifting political landscape in Alberta was illustrated as Trudeau held campaign rallies in both Edmonton and Calgary on the final day of campaigning Sunday.

The Liberals have not elected an MP from Calgary since 1968, when Trudeau’s father Pierre was leading the party in his first campaign.

The senior Trudeau became anathema in the city for his Liberal government’s imposition of the National Energy Program, among other policies.

But the younger Trudeau — making his third campaign stop in the city — did not shy away from mentioning his father as he told a crowd of more than 2,000 people that it is “time to bring the country together.”

“Alberta is important to me. It matters deeply, and that’s a message I’ve been delivering for years,” said Trudeau, who is running again in the Montreal riding of Papineau.

“I’m here to say it again on the last day before we vote. It’s a message that I’m proud to deliver here with a big smile, as a Liberal, as a Trudeau and as a Quebecker.”

Harper will be in Calgary for election day. Mulcair, who campaigned in Edmonton on Friday, will be in Montreal, like Trudeau.

“This is not about personality, ”said Rempel, who serves as western economic diversification minister in Harper’s government.

“This is about really taking a hard look at the policy of each party, and I certainly think that when it comes to details and a sustainable plan for the Canadian economy, we’ve got that in spades.”

Rempel said she had knocked on 35,000 doors during the campaign and, like all candidates spoken to Sunday, was focusing on getting out the vote on election day.

Taras noted there is a network of progressive politicians and a Liberal machine in Alberta that didn’t exist before.

But he noted the Tories continue to have an enviable organization on the ground.

“This is still home-field advantage, this is deep-blue territory,” said Taras.

This has been the longest campaign in modern Canadian history.

While advance turnout in Alberta was more than double what it was in 2011, Taras said a major question is whether younger voters — who lean toward the Liberals and NDP — will actually cast their ballots Monday.

The NDP, buoyed by the provincial victory of Premier Rachel Notley in Alberta’s spring election, entered the campaign eyeing the prospect of forming government and making their own breakthrough in Calgary, where the party has never won a seat.

Calgary Centre candidate Jillian Ratti said support for her party should not be underestimated.

Ratti said she is getting strong support at the doors and is sensing a general desire for a change of government from the Conservatives, who have been in power for nearly a decade.

“The mood for change is significant,” she said.

“I think this is going to be the most fascinating election of my life.”

Meanwhile, Natalie Odd, the Green candidate in Calgary Confederation, said there is “absolutely change afoot.”

She said the campaign was an opportunity to get her party’s environmental voice heard in the city.

“For some people, it’s the first time they’ve heard it,” Odd said.

There is a chance that no party will have won a majority of seats once the votes are counted Monday night.

But Taras said he expects that parties will be able to make something work in a minority situation.

After the gruelling campaign, no party can afford another election in short order, he noted.

“I think Canadians would be extremely angry if there was an election soon,” Taras said. “We’re electioned-out.”

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