As we hit the tail end of another election season, the pundit class -- as usual -- provides a wide range of predictions about what we can expect. Some focus on strong individual measures (like the “enthusiasm gap” or the generic ballot) to indicate a coming Republican sweep.

Others argue that outlier Republican nominees -- including Christine “I’m not a witch, and neither are you” O’Donnell and Rich “I’m not a Nazi, I only play one on the weekends” Iott -- demonstrate that Republicans have made enough mistakes to let Democrats hold on to power.

But big electoral waves are determined by overarching factors. They are not a patchwork of outcomes based on the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates, their gaffes, or even -- sorry to say --the handiwork of brilliant political strategists.

So what do these key measures look like in these last weeks compared to the major Republican wave election of 1994?

Here’s a scorecard. Those in my party may want to avert their gaze – the numbers here are grimmer for Democrats today than in 1994.

For those keeping score at home, each measure has a grade – “R” if 2010 is better for Republicans than 1994, and “D” if 2010 is better for Democrats than 1994. Those where there is just a small difference is noted as an “E.”

Structural political factors: These are the factors that, at the start of any election cycle, help set expectations by providing a sense of the overall playing field.

(D) Democratic Senate seats defended: 1994: 22. 2010: 19

(E) Open Democratic Senate seats: 1994: 6. 2010: 7.

(D) Open Democratic House Seats: 1994: 31. 2010: 19.

Overall evaluation: Advantage to Democrats compared to 1994.

Structural Economic factors: In most models of vote choice, the economy is the driving force. It is almost impossible to overstate the dangers Democrats face here.

Opinion factors: Opinion matters. The structural factors above – particularly economic – tend to drive the underlying beliefs that set opinion parameters for any election. Given the dire state of the economy, there’s more bad news for Democrats here.

Taking the simplest approach on these 11 measures, with two weeks to go before Election Day, Republicans are in better position than they were in 1994 on six measures. Democrats are in better position than in 1994 on two measures. The two parties are roughly equivalent on two measures.

But the headwinds that Democrats face on the economy are striking -- particularly in comparison to the last Republican wave. GDP is a third what it was in 1994. Fewer than one-fifth the jobs have been created this year than in that earlier cycle. The September jobs report, the final report in the 2010 cycle, made plain the economic distress voters are feeling.

While the media has been focused on anger in the electorate, the more tangible emotion among swing voters – driven by the economy – is fear. Hard to believe, but Democrats are facing an even more volatile electorate than in 1994.

Democrats should expect the worst.

Doug Usher runs Purple Insights, the research arm of the bipartisan public affairs firm Purple Strategies. He was previously vice president at the Mellman Group, a Democratic polling firm.