Rockies Extend Carlos Gonzalez

The Rockies are officially announcing that they have signed Carlos Gonzalez to a seven-year, $80MM extension. The deal will keep Gonzalez in the Rockies' lineup through 2017 along with Troy Tulowitzki, who is under contract through 2020.

Augusto Cárdenas of Diario Panorama explains that Gonzalez receives a $3MM signing bonus and will earn $1MM in 2011, $5MM in 2012, $7.5MM in 2013, $10.5MM in 2014, $16MM in 2015, $17MM in 2016 and $20MM in 2017.

Gonzalez, 25, finished third in MVP voting last year, after leading the National League in hits and batting average. He clubbed 34 homers and hit .336/.376/.598 in 636 plate appearances. Gonzalez split his time between the three outfield positions in 2010 and won his first Gold Glove.

Gonzalez is not yet arbitration eligible, so the contract covers one pre-arb season, three arbitration seasons and three free agent years. Agent Scott Boras has a tendency to let his clients hit the open market, but this deal will postpone Gonzalez's free agency until he's 32. However, Boras proved with the Jayson Werth deal that it's possible for early thirties outfielders to cash in via free agency.

Gonzalez will recieve an "assignment bonus" if he is dealt during the seven-year term of the contract, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. However, a Rockies source told Heyman, "we aren't trading him." Troy Renck of The Denver Post tweetsthat the provision will pay him $2MM if he is traded.

The outfielder's public relations team announced the deal on his Twitteraccount.

Comments

i was looking at it from both perspectives. Let me clarify; Roxs jumped on this too fast because hes a 1 year player thus far. Cargo rushed this because he could have gained more value with another productive season. Hes still 3 years away from arbitration, even if he had a bad year next year than put up .315 25/20 hes still getting at least his 80 mil.

Pre-All Star .692 ops on the road. Post-All Star road ops of .876. What were the Rockies thinking? He also walked more in the second half and year by year has shown increased plate discipline and has the ability to work the count in his favor.

I’m tired of people not noticing his splits post all start break where he posted a .876 ops away from home. It’s obvious that he has learned to adjust. Wish people who simply post an ops would actually take time to research how his season began and ended. Of course it is a small sample size, but I do not see anything showing me he will regress when all Cargo has done his entire career is make progress developing into one of the best outfielders in all of baseball.

Coors field with it’s cavernous outfield is one of the toughest stadiums to play in the outfield. If UZR or DRS doesn’t like him it’s most likely for that very reason. Having seen the guy play compared with other good OF’s from the NL he plays all OF positions well. Also, to say that his defense is flat out bad is a terrible mistake as he never settled into one position out there, he split time between all three OF positions which all vary in difficulty.

UZR operates based on slices or “zones” of the field that the player has to cover. A big outfield probably HELPS his ratings, given that it means that he has a play on any ball he can reach, as opposed to, say, Fenway. A ball hit into the LCF corner isn’t going to penalize his rating because he can’t get there. It’s based on his positioning and the total amount of range covered to make a play.

I didn’t say he was a bad defender. I said he’s a plus defender in left field, and an average-ish defender in the other two positions. When you take all his outfield defensive rankings as an aggregate, most of of his perceived value comes from Left Field. If you read the rest of the argument, I posit that Jim Tracy should play him in LF full time. It’s where he is most valuable. At the other two positions, his defensive value is overrated.

You missed my point about the thin air, it’s not that the player has less oxygen to breath, it’s that the ball gets to where it’s going that much faster. And being able to play CF fairly well (we really need more data on this though) means that you should pay him as such. Having utility is huge. Imagine if Johnny Damon could play CF nearly at league average, he’d have been signed by now instead of being looked at as a DH who could fill in at LF in a pinch.

Just because you can get away with playing someone out of position doesn’t mean that you should. Utility is most useful for bench players, because they’re filling in gaps. Mark DeRosa plays five positions, but none of them particularly well.

Pretending that players are something that they’re not simply isn’t a productive exercise. Johnny Damon would be a great CF if he was actually a good outfield defender, but he’s not. Tony Gwynn Jr. would be a great starter if he could hit, but he can’t. The thought exercise falls rather flat.

In the long run, players tend to do better if they play at one position, and play for long stretches. Stick Gonzalez in one of the corners, and keep him there. The shuffle doesn’t really help anybody.

Because Damon would go over in CF about as well as Dunn at shortstop. It’s amazing that since you have no argument against me you just start pulling random players from thin air and say “insert so and so here and he could theoretically do well if purple unicorns made love to toads”. Gonzalez CAN play CF, and he plays it WELL. Considering that UZR absolutely HATES anyone playing the OF in Coors (Willy Taveras anyone?) and over rates players playing in pitcher friendly parks (AT&T, Safeco, Petco, etc) you can look at DRS which doesn’t seem to be as affected by park factors. DRS rates Gonzalez as 6 in CF, that’s SIX RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE.

That’s odd, I thought this argument ended a week ago. Did it take you that long to come up with such a troll-tacular reply?

I was illuminating the point that you continue to pretend that Gonzalez is a great center fielder, when the numbers just don’t add up. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at your won defense of him.

Oakland is also one of those pitcher-friendly parks; probably more pitcher-friendly than AT&T overall. And that’s the only place where he’s rated as a strong outfielder. As for his DRS? 7 of those 6 runs came from his season as an A. DRS rates Gonzales at -5 DRS in CF last year and -1 for his career in Coors. -2 in RF for his his career in Coors. And +10 in LF for his career at Coors.

He’s a superlatively good left fielder, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Carl Crawford is a superlatively good left fielder, and last I checked he’s doing just fine. But flailing your ineffectual arguments and insults at me won’t make him a good Center Fielder. Gonzales hits best, plays best, and is most valuable when he plays left field. And none of your whining is going to change that.

Wrong again, he was +4 in DRS in Coors as a CF in 2009, regardless your argument of him not having value at CF is mute since there isn’t enough data. And it took me a week to respond because I had forgotten about this thread until I went looking through my activity. I’d also like to see the batting splits for when he’s playing CF vs LF, because I honestly have no clue as to where one would find those and any site providing that type of information is one that I need to visit more frequently.

Just because you can get away with playing someone out of position doesn’t mean that you should. Utility is most useful for bench players, because they’re filling in gaps. Mark DeRosa plays five positions, but none of them particularly well.

Pretending that players are something that they’re not simply isn’t a productive exercise. Johnny Damon would be a great CF if he was actually a good outfield defender, but he’s not. Tony Gwynn Jr. would be a great starter if he could hit, but he can’t. The thought exercise falls rather flat.

In the long run, players tend to do better if they play at one position, and play for long stretches. Stick Gonzalez in one of the corners, and keep him there. The shuffle doesn’t really help anybody.

You missed my point about the thin air, it’s not that the player has less oxygen to breath, it’s that the ball gets to where it’s going that much faster. And being able to play CF fairly well (we really need more data on this though) means that you should pay him as such. Having utility is huge. Imagine if Johnny Damon could play CF nearly at league average, he’d have been signed by now instead of being looked at as a DH who could fill in at LF in a pinch.

You missed my point about the thin air, it’s not that the player has less oxygen to breath, it’s that the ball gets to where it’s going that much faster. And being able to play CF fairly well (we really need more data on this though) means that you should pay him as such. Having utility is huge. Imagine if Johnny Damon could play CF nearly at league average, he’d have been signed by now instead of being looked at as a DH who could fill in at LF in a pinch.

So, you want a guy that hits .280 80 20 80 20 at 1B? but why? That’s a below average first baseman (not the steals though) you’re not going to find many 20+ HR speedsters at 3B either that aren’t named David Wright or Evan Longoria. So, we toss that out for 1B and 3B, the only second basemen that look to reach the 20-20 mark next season (or last) are Brandon Phillips and Ricky Weeks. So that really leaves you with Catcher and your three OF positions. So that pretty much means that you can plug in CarGo for any of those spots.

And CarGo being a bad fielder? How does a 10.3 career UZR sound? Maybe a career 5.7 UZR/150 sounds more reasonable? Maybe Huff’s career -8.4 LF UZR/150 is more appealing?

First, I never said I wanted those numbers at 1B. I said an OUTFIELD corner.

Second, ou keep claiming that I’m saying that CarGo is a bad fielder, but you’ll note I’m not saying that (running theme here). I’m saying that his defensive value is overrated. Once again, most of his defensive value comes from playing left field, and he gets more than 100% of his value from his rookie season In a larger data set, that second tidbit is what we call an outlier. He rated very positively in his first full season in Oakland – which also has a big outfield – but both his seasons at Coors field have been much more lukewarm on his defense. Three seasons give us a better idea of his value, but there’s also a noticeable downward trend. So let’s get a bit more data before we proclaim him as a plus defender.

Third, cherry picking stats and bringing up Huff is just a weak attempt at diverting attention from the issue at hand. Which, and I’ll give you a hint here, is not Aubrey Huff.

“You get added value if you play Gonzales exclusively in CF, but you can pay much less for an elite defense CF and offensive production at nearly any other position for a good deal less.”Where would you get the baseline (or close to it) that I mentioned (and most people think will be Gonzalez’s floor) without getting a 1B, 3B, or OF? Considering that the only players to come in on that mark last season were exceptional infielders or corner OF’s is what I was pointing at. And as far as having an ‘exceptional defender at CF’ goes, CarGo has never played a full season of CF and Coors Field with it’s thinner air is much more difficult to deal with than Oakland with it’s heavy air. One you’re more than likely ranging in, which is easier, the other you can’t play too deep or balls will die in front of you and you’re more likely to range back as the ball travels easier. The only trend that we’ve really seen is that Gonzalez is still trying to figure out CF in Coors field. He’s not Andruw Jones in his prime good, no one is, but he’s solid in CF and plus in LF. Not to mention Fowler, once he learns how to take better paths to the ball will more than likely be a better CF as he’s shown improvements last year in his defense.Third, I wasn’t cherry picking anything, I looked at career UZR and UZR/150 for CarGo overall in the outfield vs Huff in LF, yet I’ve never heard of anyone complaining that Huff needs to stay at 1B exclusively, especially not a Giants fan. So I was using him as an example of a poor outfielder.

Dragging Huff into the discussion in order to provoke a defense of his outfield defense is a pretty obvious attempt at obfuscation. We’re not talking about Aubrey Huff. We’re talking about Carlos Gonzalez, who is actually regarded as an outfielder. Huff might play outfield sometimes, but nobody would say he’s an outfielder.

Also, as someone who does athletics at altitude, thin air shouldn’t have a strong effect unless he’s making consecutive plays where he has to range far in one direction or another. Plus, some of it should be mitigated over the course of long homestands and short road-trips. The players are normally adjusted after a 3 game series or so.

If Gonzales played one position every day, obviously his defense would improve. But the data we have so far would suggest that he is most valuable in left field – honestly, he fits the Crawford model pretty well. As you say, Fowler is a better fit for CF, and gives you better defense for cheaper without giving up Gonzalez’s offense. You have to respect the size of Coors’ outfield, which is why you want your best guy there, not just a pretty good guy there. Keep Gonzalez in left, because that is where he is best fit.

When i read the tagline that cargo got 7/80 it reminded me of the Matthews Jr. deal.
Matthews Jr. – Cargo each had 1 good year before signing big contracts
Matthews Jr. – Cargo each played center.
Matthews Jr. – Cargo each played flashy/webgems defense.

All of that is indeed true, except that when Gary Matthews Jr. finally had a good year in the bigs, he was already past his theoretical prime. But I can see how just looking at the position itself can be confusing.

You both realize that it takes 3 years of UZR stats to determine a player’s effectiveness as a defender. Considering he has 838.1 innings showing him as a PLUS CF vs 452.2 as a negative defender then you should also know that it’s far from determined how good he is at CF.

So wait, it only looks good if they can look back and say he was worth twice as much as they paid him? That’s ridiculous. Hunter Pence last year put up a line of .282/.325/.461 93 25 91 18, which most would agree is CarGo’s bottom line. Fangraph’s estimates his worth to be $16.1 million. If CarGo out performs that line 3 times in his contact he’s more than paid for himself.

Again, your ignorance is showing, he’s over 9 runs better vs change ups than average and 6 runs better vs cutters while still mashing the fast ball to a +20.7 runs above average. He improved against all pitches (other than curveballs) last year with the biggest improvements in changeups (+9.7), fastballs (+8.2), cutters (+7.3), sliders (+7) and splitters (+1.2). His ability to hit curve balls dropped by .8.

Yes, he can kill a fast ball, but he can still hammer almost anything else. Add in his developing patience and growing ability to hit on the road and you’ve got a bonafide stud developing.

I actually looked at his pitch type values before posting this. I am making an adjustment for the fact that pitches don’t break as much at Coors Field as they do at sea level, with the pitches most affected being two-seamers, four seamers, changeups, and sliders. He struggles with “true” break when hitting n the road. And given the degree to which fastballs make up his overall offensive value, it is not an exaggeration to say that while he can still manhandle a curveball now and again, he is much less likely to do damage against that pitch.

Actually according to some research done at THB, fastballs and changeups are (or should be) the pitches of choice at Coors field, yes, breaking pitches are harmed, but not changeups as they are a ‘straight’ pitch. So hitting a changeup in Coors is pretty similar to hitting a change up at Petco or AT&T park.

It’s too bad that fangraphs doesn’t have pitch type value splits, I might have to suggest that one day during one of their chats.

Actually according to some research done at THB, fastballs and changeups are (or should be) the pitches of choice at Coors field, yes, breaking pitches are harmed, but not changeups as they are a ‘straight’ pitch. So hitting a changeup in Coors is pretty similar to hitting a change up at Petco or AT&T park.

It’s too bad that fangraphs doesn’t have pitch type value splits, I might have to suggest that one day during one of their chats.

I don’t see how Carlos Gonzalez gave the Rockies any kind of a discount. He got top dollar. 1 pre-arb season is worth only 500k. Instead of working for only 500k this year with not a penny more guaranteed- he gets 80 million and only gives up 3 free agent years.