2Why Electric Transportation?The nation has an oil problemU.S. is refining more oil than it has, and consumes even moreThe current high oil prices reflect the increasing global demand for a limited energy resource: China is number 2 in oil use and India is 6th…and growingOil is predominately a transportation energy problem, with economic, environmental, and geopolitical concerns for the nationOil is an energy security issueReliance on domestic oil is not sustainable, we cannot drill our way out of the problemEven optimistic projections leave us heavily dependent on foreign oil

4Electric Vehicles are Part of the Government-Industry Partnership Advanced Propulsion Portfolio VisionPortfolio approach as there is no clear winnerLikely, the U.S. solution with include a mix of technologies with multiple fuel sources (electricity, biofuels, alternative fuels, etc.)

5Existing Battery Technologies do not yet Approach the Energy and Power in an Internal Combustion (IC) EngineR&D on New Technologies is still needed

9Different Ways of Controlling/Operating PHEVs Engines/BatteriesBlended Modes (conventional engine cycles on/off fairly frequently)All-Electric Modes (conventional engine stays off for an extended period of time until the battery charge reaches a certain level; then starts up)SOC: State of Charge (Battery)

10There Will be a Substantial Cost Premium to Early Adopters; Estimates of Premium Vary Noticeably

11Estimated Paybacks Can be Very Long; But the More you Drive (and the Higher the Price of Gasoline), the Better it isSource: Sharer and Rousseau, 2009, ANL

12Increases in Powertrain Cost are Not the Only Cost Increases that Consumers May Need to PayChargers and cord and connector between vehicle and plusCharging Circuit Upgrades or InstallationIf you want faster charging, you will need an upgradeLevel 1: Your standard circuit (110V, 20Amps, 1.1 KW)Level 2: Upgraded circuit (220V, 15 Amps, 3.3 kW)12

14How do We Use Vehicles?PHEVs with an all-electric-range (AER) of 20 Miles could cover about 40% of daily Vehicles-Miles-Traveled (VMT) on electricityPHEVs with a 30-Mile AER could cover about 55% of Daily VMTs

15How do We Use Vehicles? (2)Weekday Last Vehicle Trip Ending Time Shows a Sharp Peak At 5-6 PM, Totaling 15% of VehiclesThe chart shows national data. Similar patterns can be observed for different regions in the country.1515Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"15

16How do We Use Vehicles? (3)Some variation; the hottest months have the smallest peak hour shareJan-MarApr-JunOct-DecJuly-Sep16Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"16

17Worst Case: Charging Starts when People Arrive at their Homes; Will Show Grid Impacts1717

19Utilities see PHEV Smart-Charging as Critical for SuccessImpact of PEVs on the 2020 Summer Load of Southern California Electric Power GridPeak power will increase substantially without managementOptimal management requires smart grids and smart vehiclesLocal circuits (blocks and neighborhoods) must be protected from overloadTransformers need cooling periods at nightLifetime may be reducedConsumer education and pricing policy will be key enablersSource: SCE, 2009

21V2G: Vehicles could be an Active Component of the Future GridVehicle-to-Grid (V2G) is a PHEV equipped with a communications interfaceControl signals are sent from the grid operator to manage the flow of energy between the vehicle and the gridChanging charging rate; reversing the flow of energy to feed back to the grid depending on a variety of factors including current grid load, current amount of renewable generation, state of charge of the vehicle, and real-time energy pricingDirect load control (similar to AC programs)With true bi-directional flow capability, vehicles could provide ancillary grid servicesFrequency control, regulation and spinning reservesHelp penetration of intermittent renewable energy generation resources (solar and wind)Another option is Vehicle-to-House (V2H)Plug-in vehicles treated as power generation resource along with solar or wind power, and controlled directly by an energy management system which controls the energy load at the home or businessSome issuesAutomakers want dumb charging (KISS), utilities want smart chargingDistribution system not built for bi-directional flows; will need infrastructure investmentsCommunication infrastructure would have to be developedEffect of increased grid-controlled cycling on battery life time

24The Starting Point is to Estimate the Future PHEV Market using Market Simulation Tools

25Estimates of Number of PHEVs on the Road in 2020 by RegionAbout 10% of Cars and SUVs In 2020 are assumed to be PHEVsBreakdown into AER 10, 20, 30, and 40 using average typical travel pattern (NHTS)PHEV10 – 39%; PHEV20 – 29%; PHEV30 – 19%; PHEV %Useable battery energy = 60% of rated energyFurther broken down into Chicago and Rest2525

39SummaryPHEVs can play a substantial role in reducing our petroleum consumptionGHG emission reductions related to PHEV depend heavily on the energy/power mix, the vehicle configuration, and the choice of technologySmart-infrastructure is critical to manage the additional load on the gridPHEVs/EVs may facilitate the use of large penetration of variable, renewable resourcesKeep it simple for the consumerChevy Volt Phone App39