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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Posted on 13 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

Climate change

"As we will show, this alternative scheme is too simple, is based on invalid assumptions, and does not address many of the key processes involved in the global carbon cycle that are important on the timescale of interest. Harde (2017) therefore reaches an incorrect conclusion about the role of anthropogenic CO2 emissions."

"Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that — due to state dependency — the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo ... is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."

"We find that the frequency of annual heavy precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative."

"Here, several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer mid-latitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected mid-latitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models."

"We estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects."

Climate change impacts

"Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints."

"Our work has shown that the water volume in about 30% of the springs has decreased over the last decade. The springs located in mid-elevation with discharge less than 5 liters per minute are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The 2015 Nepal earthquake had a huge and immediate impact on the water volume of the springs in our study with an immediate drying effect in about 18% of the springs."

"Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases."

Climate change mitigation

"Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050."