Why Trump’s War on McConnell Could Imperil His Presidency

The long-simmering tension between Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has occasionally boiled over, exploded into public view Tuesday night when The New York Timesreported that the two men, who have been sniping at each other publicly in recent weeks, have stopped talking to each other entirely. Their last communication was a “profane” shouting match on August 9, during which Trump reportedly blamed McConnell for the Senate’s failure to repeal Obamacare and ranted about the congressional investigation into alleged collusion between his campaign and Russia. McConnell, for his part, has allegedly said worse when he’s out of earshot:

Mr. McConnell has fumed over Mr. Trump’s regular threats against fellow Republicans and criticism of Senate rules, and questioned Mr. Trump’s understanding of the presidency in a public speech. Mr. McConnell has made sharper comments in private, describing Mr. Trump as entirely unwilling to learn the basics of governing.

In offhand remarks, Mr. McConnell has expressed a sense of bewilderment about where Mr. Trump’s presidency may be headed, and has mused about whether Mr. Trump will be in a position to lead the Republican Party into next year’s elections and beyond, according to people who have spoken to him directly.

CNN, which confirmed the story with its own sources, suggested that the proximate cause for the falling-out was not Obamacare, but rather McConnell’s failure to protect him from the Russia probe. Whatever the reason, the animosity between the two is already having very real political consequences in Arizona, where Trump is threatening to run candidates against McConnell’s vocally anti-Trump colleague Jeff Flake, who is up for re-election in 2018. The proxy war escalated this week, when the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund released an ad targeting primary challenger Kelli Ward, who recently received the highest honor from Trump: a positive tweet celebrating her candidacy while bashing “Flake Jeff Flake” for being “weak” and “toxic.” The assault continued during Trump’s rally Tuesday night in Phoenix, where Trump bashed both McConnell and Flake.

The rally, which began just hours after the Times published its story highlighting the Trump-McConnell rift, served as something of a public therapy session for the president, who spent more than an hour ranting and raving at his critics. But Trump’s lack of discipline also comes at a cost. McConnell is considered the ultimate pragmatist, willing to set aside personal grievances to steadfastly advance Republican legislative priorities. That includes working with men like Trump, whom McConnell so clearly holds in contempt. But the Times story, which is clearly sourced primarily from people loyal to the Senate majority leader, suggests that the damage Trump is doing to the G.O.P. agenda has changed McConnell’s political calculus.

Perhaps the most critical detail in the Times report is the insinuation that Trump pressured McConnell to protect him from the Senate Intelligence Committee’s Russia probe—a claim that special counsel Robert Mueller will likely be forced to investigate, if he is not already. That could give the F.B.I. more evidence as Mueller’s grand jury moves toward possible indictments, including for obstruction of justice. More important, the entire debacle suggests that Trump has burned a pillar of the political firewall he will need if he is to avoid impeachment.