Picked by many to repeat as AL East and World Series champs, the Yankees just missed by a game of winning the east, and had their starting rotation held up (or had they acquired Cliff Lee) they might have won the series, too.

The Yankees got off to a hot start, taking 15 of 22 in April, and having winning records every month until September, when they went 12 – 15 and were run down from behind by the Rays. To be honest, they peaked after a long winning streak at 86 – 50, but actually collapsed to the finish line. Had they missed the playoffs, it might have been given the same treatment as a Mets September, but for some reason, the Yankees were given a pass for going 9 – 17 down the stretch.

If I were them, I’d be nervous.

During the season, in addition to the run of the mill waiver claims and what not, the Yankees acquired Austin Kearns for spare parts from Cleveland, later picked up Kerry Wood at the trade deadline for two more minor leaguers, and gave up two decent prospects (Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes) to the Astros to pick up Lance Berkman. Wood played pretty well, Kearns was just a backup, and Lance Berkman acted like he wanted to be somewhere else.

Starters:

The Yankees rotation is led by the remarkable C.C. Sabathia, who provided yet another season as a Cy Young candidate. Philip Hughes took a big step forward by winning 18 decisions in 29 starts, but as a pitcher was just mildly better than the average starter. Andy Pettitte heads to retirement following a remarkably good 21 starts, winning 11 of 14 decisions. However, the #2 starter, A.J. Burnett went 10 – 15 with a 5.26 ERA – 25 runs worse than the average starter over 186.2 innings. And Javier Vazquez was equally poor, despite the 10 – 10 record, with his 5.32 ERA. Vazquez suffered as a flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, giving up a homer every fifth inning he pitched. Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova were tolerable when given chances to start – in fact Nova may earn a rotation spot in 2011.

However, the pitching is thin for 2011 in general. The Yankees twice failed to get Cliff Lee to town (maybe the fans in Yankee Stadium should have been nicer to Lee’s wife). Vazquez is now a Florida Marlin, Andy Pettitte has retired to Texas, and even Kerry Wood returned home (he’s pitching for the Cubs). Sabathia returns, as does Burnett (he HAS to be better than last year), and Hughes will get 32 starts to see if he’s still got the magic. That leaves Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and former rotation stalwarts Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia – who are years removed from their better days. I’m not a huge Garcia fan anymore, but he actually was tolerable as a fifth starter for the White Sox last year. On the other hand, he won 12 games in his 28 starts despite a 4.64 ERA, served up a lot of homers, and only struck out 89 in 157 innings. Vazquez came with much better credentials and stunk up the joint. Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre will have to step forward – and Mitre has enough innings under his belt to suggest he’s not the answer. So that means Nova is likely to get a shot at being the #5 guy.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera continues to amaze as nears AARP status – a 1.80 ERA, 33 saves, and just 55 base runners in 60 innings. Joba Chamberlain didn’t completely own the 7th or 8th inning, but there are still things to like, including a great K/9 rate and improved control. Boone Logan and Damaso Marte served as solid one-out lefties, and David Robertson was decent in 61.1 innings. Kerry Wood was impressive in his two months.

Looking ahead, Rivera returns for another go, but Rafael Soriano was imported from Tampa to provide an 8th inning ace and potential replacement closer. The rest of the pen contains the familiar faces of Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain, as well as newly added Pedro Feliciano. Hopefully, these guys are ready for a step up in workload.

Catching:

Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli provided decent enough catching, even if teams ran rampant on Posada when he caught. Posada can still hit some, so he will be moved to the DH role, which means that Cervelli will cede a few innings to Russell Martin. Cervelli is a decent backup – no power, some defense, a fair batting average. Four years ago, Martin was a solid defensive catcher and run producer, that is until Joe Torre ran him into the ground.

Infield:

The Yankees have an interesting mix of current and aging superstars. At third, you have the declining Alex Rodriguez, who is getting more comfortable at third base as his batting statistics fall off from his MVP level (and steroid supported) play. At short is the captain, Derek Jeter. When he hits .320, Jeter is the most productive shortstop in the AL despite his defensive flaws (range, really, is his only flaw and it’s really getting problematic – so stop giving him the gold glove when he hasn’t ever deserved one). Last year, he hit .270 and the team let him know, through an ugly contract negotiation, that they noticed his decline was both offensive and defensive. At second, you have the remarkably talented Robinson Cano, who is as good a fielder as can be found in the AL and light years ahead of any second sacker when batting, too. At first, you have Mark Teixeira, who struggled to get out April, but still managed 33 homers, 108 RBI, and got on base at a .368 clip. That’s a solid off season. Backing them up is Ramiro Pena, who has little power but some defensive skills – much like Eduardo Nunez, who is the sixth infielder.

I’d like to think that Jeter can bounce back for one more .300 season. If he does, that bodes well for his chances at 3500 hits and the Yankees continuing to make playoff runs. Realistically, that’s not going to happen. Same with Alex Rodriguez, who is barely making 30 homers per year, misses a month of games each year now, and also hit .270 instead of .310. Playing in Yankee Stadium is also masking some of their decline; if Jeter had hit .255 with 7 homers, would anyone give him a chance of a comeback? Cano should be able to duplicate his 2010 season, but last year was a significant step forward to superstardom. And Teixeira will not have another April like last year. The issue is that all four are generally durable (even A-Rod, with his hip, has never missed 60 games in a season) and now, with all but Cano at least two years into their 30s, the chances of someone missing a significant amount of time is going up. I can’t help but think that this is the year – and neither Pena nor Nunez can hit enough to make up for that kind of loss.

Outfield:

The trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher return after all three provided solid production in 2010. Of the three, Gardner has the greatest chance to produce more in 2011. He could be moved up in the lineup (he should be the leadoff hitter), which would give him more opportunities. Until then, he’s the best centerfielder playing left field on the team, and he’s the best #9 hitter in baseball. Granderson found his power stroke near the end of the year, but he’s only marginally better than average because he doesn’t quite hit .250 anymore. Swisher is coming off a career year in batting and slugging and remains a surprisingly good defensive outfielder. Austin Kearns and Randy Winn are gone (thankfully), but they have imported aging slugger Andruw Jones to help out here and be the right handed counterpart at DH. Greg Golson may be the best defensive option as the alliterative fourth outfielder; Golson or Colin Curtis.

DH:

Last year, Marcus Thames was the surprise hit of the team, launching 12 homers in 212 at bats, batting .288, and generating more runs per 27 outs than even Teixeira. In 2011, look for Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, and one or more of the others (Rodriguez, Swisher, Granderson, or even Jeter to pick up a few at bats here.

Down On the Farm:

It all starts with Jesus Montero, who is an expanded set of defensive skills away from being the next great Yankee catcher. In AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, Montero hit for more power, was more selective, and – at 20 – is just about ready. Eduardo Nunez got his first cup of coffee after tying Montero for the team lead in batting, stole 23 bases in 28 attempts, and played a steady shortstop. At 24, he could step in and help out. The top pitcher was Ivan Nova, who went 12 – 3 with a 2.86 ERA, showed good control, and was reasonably solid in his Yankee debut. David Phelps moved up through two levels, going 6 – 0 in 14 starts at AA Trenton, then 4 – 2 in 11 starts at AAA – with great command and a sub 3.00 ERA.

Trenton featured first baseman Brandon Laird, a 23 year old who hit 23 – 90 – .291. Hector Noesi went 8 – 4 with a 1.09 WHIP and an 86/18 K/BB rate. Another pitcher making a step up was Adam Warren, who whipped through three levels since his 2009 draft (4th round), and has been impressive with his command and control at all three levels.

Corbin Joseph was a 4th round pick out of Franklin, TN in 2008 and hit .302 in A+ Tampa. He’s a slight second baseman who seems to be developing a little power as he ages. Another young prospect is Jose Pirela, a Venezuelan burner who plays shortstop and hit 13 triples for Tampa. He may be fighting Joseph for a shot at the second base job in three years. Among the top arms were Pat Venditte (4 – 1, 1.73, 85/14 in 72.2 innings), Dellen Betances – a Brooklyn native who clobbered Tampa opponents (8 – 1, 1.77, 88/19 in 81 innings), and Mexican teen sensation Manny Banuelos, who had 79Ks in 59.2 innings and seems to be ready for a full trip in AA Trenton.

Forecasting 2011:

It’s hard to pick against the Yankees because (a) the outfielders are all in their prime, as is Teixeira, and (b) the veterans they have are all still very productive.

On the other hand, this might be the year things fall off. The Yankees won’t be getting MORE production in center or right fields. They won’t be getting MORE production from second base, shortstop, or third base. They won’t be getting MORE production behind the plate. The only spots where improvement might be seen is left field – but that would be at the expense of another position. I think the offense will still be good – but not 859 runs of good. More like 780 runs – a top five offense rather than a #1 offense.

Then you have the defense, which could slip a little at four or five positions. I’d swap Granderson and Gardner, which would help, but you never know if the Yankees would do that since Granderson is only 30. You’d ALMOST want to switch A-ROD and Jeter – but I’m not certain that after the hip surgeries A-ROD can cover short anymore. In fact, nobody in New York can cover short – which makes a lot of the pitchers look worse than they have to. At least Jeter is still solid at turning two.

That brings us to the pitchers. If Sabathia, who came to spring training in WAY better shape than he had been, were to miss any chunk of time, this team could fall off the map. Hughes is good, but not great, Burnett isn’t dependable and is one slump away from being sent to the Pirates or something. Your fourth and fifth starters are rookies or retreads. I think the Yankees will allow a few more runs than in 2010 – maybe 40 more. That puts the team around 780 runs scored and just 725 allowed, which converts to 87 wins. And wait until the Steinbrenner boys see THAT number…

29 – 115 – .300, but seemed to slow as the season wore on. Didn’t get resigned, so he’s now getting a shot with Baltimore. He’ll be okay, but a notch below his 2010 production.

David Ortiz – BOS (98.4 Runs Created)

One day, the slow start will be a slow season. For now, he remains a very productive hitter.

Hideki Matsui – LAA (86.2 Runs Created)

Still a potent bat, with fair power and a discerning eye at the plate. Now the DH in Oakland, which seemed like a good idea at the time. Will be 37 in June, and his stats won’t look as good in Oakland, which may hasten his decline.

Luke Scott – BAL (84.7 Runs Created)

Can play the corner outfield positions (though not well) and first base in a pinch.

Jim Thome – MIN (73,0 Runs Created)

Shared role with Jason Kubel in a platoon role, though after Justin Morneau went down, Kubel played more in the field, too. Can still tattoo a fastball to the opposite field, and is the complete professional hitter. Approaching 600 homers with no sign of slowing down. Of course, the 40s aren’t always friendly to batters.

Travis Hafner – CLE (69.3 Runs Created)

Platooned, which is why his totals are less than the rest – but he’s platooned for a reason.

Damon got most of the licks here in 2010, but Ordonez may get the bulk of them in 2011.

Jack Cust – OAK (62.7 Runs Created)

Hits for power, draws a few walks, swings through a lot of strikes. Now gets to play full time in Seattle, where he may get more playing time. I wouldn’t be suprised at 25 – 95 in 2011.

Jose Guillen – KC (53.9 Runs Created)

Guillen shared it with a few others – look for Billy Butler or Kila (Mt.) Ka’aihue to get the bulk of the at bats next year.

The Yankees shared the role amongst a number of players, including Jorge Posada, Marcus Thames, and any of their aging stars needing a day or three off while keeping a bat in the lineup. Thames was very productive, and the other hitters are all pretty good.

The Mariners shared the role amongst a few players, including Mike Sweeney, Ken Griffey, Milton Bradley and Russell Branyan. None of that really worked out well, so Jack Cust has been imported for 2011.

The Rays shared the role with a variety of fourth outfielders and extra infielders – sometimes to good effect. For 2011, Manny Ramirez and/or Johnny Damon (mostly Manny) will get the at bats. Manny can’t stay healthy, he has an insanity streak, but can still hit really, really well. We’ll see if he’s got one more good year left in the tank, or if he gets bored. Or just old.

Mauer wasn’t 100%, but he’s still amazing. Defensively, he has few peers and offensively he’s a solid #3 hitter. His power was off – just nine homers – and his batting average fell with the league, but he remained a threat to win the batting title. Backup Drew Butera was solid, too – cutting down 43% of would be base stealers. Of course, Butera hits like Sal Butera – which isn’t very good.

Victor Martinez (BOS) – 83.4 runs created

Martinez and Jason Varitek remained solid as a team behind the plate, being way below average against the run (80% success rate and 169 stolen bases allowed) and not necessarily being that mobile – though who really bunts against the Sox, anyway. Martinez hit well here, batting .302 with 20 homers, and Varitek had surprisingly good power in limited plate appearances. Martinez is gone now, leaving Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek as top options, which will hurt the Sox offensively in 2011. Saltalamacchia has never hit that well – and Varitek isn’t going to hit .275 anytime soon. Let’s hope that Salty has beaten his phobia of throwing back to the pitcher…

Mike Napoli (LAA) 73.1 runs created

Jeff Mathis is supposedly the stronger defensive catcher – but Napoli was actually better against the run and made slightly fewer mistakes. Mathis is definitely a cleaner catcher – far more mobile, but not a world beater with the bat. Bobby Wilson got 29 starts and wasn’t awful, didn’t impress me with either his mobility or arm, but he might be able to hit a little. As a group, they were well below average and partly to blame for not winning the division in 2010. Offensively, Mike Napoli has power and produces runs, and held down first base when Kendry Morales went down to that freak broken leg. Mathis hit like Lou Marson (see below) in fewer at bats. Will Hank Conger win the job in spring training?

John Buck (TOR) – 61.7 runs created

Now a Marlin, John Buck was dependable, decent against the run, didn’t make too many errors, and generally mobile. The pitching was surprisingly good and Toronto had a winning record. Defensively, for this position, it was a lot of positives. Backup Jose Molina was awesome against the run (44% caught stealing), and Buck was pretty good. Rookie J.P. Arencibia gets the nod for 2011, and he didn’t look so bad either. By the way, Buck had his best offensive season, too – hitting .281 and slugging 20 homers. His weakness? He doesn’t walk at all.

Jorge Posada/Francisco Cervelli (NYY) – 57.9 runs created

Innings split nearly down the middle, Posada is aging (he doesn’t LOOK old, but he’s playing old), but Cervelli isn’t the answer either. Neither can stop the run, though Cervelli is younger and, therefore, more mobile. The pitching isn’t happy with the catching either. As a hitter, Cervelli is learning, and marginally below average, but not awful; he also isn’t seen as the next Yogi Berra either. Posada did what we would have expected to do – which is lose a little in his batting average, though he still gets on base and hits for some power. Jesus Montero will have this job as soon as he is ready.

Kurt Suzuki (OAK) – 57.1 runs created

Suzuki remains a decent catcher, though he’s not very good against the run anymore. Backup Landon Powell is better against the run, but needs to remove some of his mistakes – which will come with time. As a duo, they weren’t very good – not very mobile, and slightly above average in terms of making mistakes. Suzuki still hits a little, but it’s a little less and he’s now below average. He’s still better than Landon Powell.

John Jaso (TB) – 54.2 runs created

Jaso is young and gets on base – much like his Florida Marlins counterpart, John Baker. In fact, he got on base enough that Joe Maddon let him bat leadoff from time to time. Dioner Navarro is the best catcher of this group, but his weight is problematic and he isn’t hitting. Kelly Shoppach doesn’t look like he’ll be in the league very long and should start brushing up on his coaching skills instead.

A.J. Pierzynski (CHISOX) – 52.4 runs created

Pierzynski is starting to get old, but he’s a good kind of old – just good enough against the run, few mistakes, and keeping the pitching staff on point – though he has a good set of pitchers to work with. His offense fell off to where his power slipped and his OBP is woeful (.301). Backup Ramon Castro isn’t half bad, and the man can hit (.278/.504/.331). He could easily be a DH if the Sox wanted, and I’d be tempted to let him play more.

Matt Wieters (BAL) – 51.4 runs created

The Orioles future is now with Matt Wieters assuming the starting role full time. As a team, Oriole catching rates as slightly above average, with the young Wieters being mobile, and making few errors or passed balls. The TEAM was below average in terms of the stolen base percentage, but Wieters wasn’t the problem, nabbing 24 of 77 runners. Craig Tatum was horrible here, allowing 25 of 27 runners to reach the next base. Offensively, Wieters didn’t amaze as we had been led to believe, but there were a few positives, including 11 homers in 446 at bats. I think he’s going to be better. Tatum had a nice batting average (.281), but he didn’t do much with those singles.

Jason Kendall (KC) – 43.6 runs created

You want to know why the Royals are never going to win? Who was responsible for letting John Buck go to Toronto (where Toronto suddenly had the best overall catching in the league), and replacing him with the ancient, impotent, and immobile Jason Kendall? Kendall can still throw a little, but the rest of his game is lacking. Brayan Pena should have been given this job from the outset. Pena is a better hitter, a better athlete, and has upside.

Alex Avila/Gerald Laird (DET) – 32.3 runs created

Laird is a really good catcher with solid skills, good with pitchers, good against the run, relatively mistake free. Avila is nearly his equal and played 86 more innings. Neither hit – but Avila was closer to league average than Laird, who seems to have lost his bat altogether – explaining why Avila got more time behind the plate. If Avila can step up a bit – maybe .260 and slugging .400 – this would be a positive. He’ll be a backup, though, as Victor Martinez will take on a load of catching in 2011.

Lou Marson (CLE) – 22.4 runs created

As a team, Indian catchers were average – but the young guys were good in terms of avoiding mistakes and making the throws. The veteran backup, Mike Redmond, struggled against baserunners (see Craig Tatum, BAL, above). I’ve always been a Marson fan, but if his bat doesn’t improve soon (.195 with no power), he’ll become the new Paul Bako. You think the Indians miss Victor Martinez?

Matt Treanor/Bengie Molina (TEX) – 20.5 runs created

A few years ago, it looked like Texas had all the good young catchers. Saltalamacchia is gone, Taylor Teagarden has been disappointing, Max Ramirez isn’t the answer yet, leaving veteran Matt Treanor as the best of the lot. It was so bad, the Rangers imported Bengie Molina from the Giants down the stretch, and he wasn’t much better than Treanor – though he was more mobile. Nobody hit here, so the addition of Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba will help immensely.

Adam Moore/Rob Johnson (SEA) – 14.9 runs created

Josh Bard got 300 innings, too – nobody had more than 515 innings at the position in 2010. Moore wasn’t very good against the run and he isn’t very mobile. If he has room to grow, that’s news to me. Rob Johnson was good against the run and more mobile, but his health record looks like Medicare’s worst nightmare. Bard can catch, but that’s about it. As a team, among the worst catching in the league. Only Bard hit above .200, and he hit .214. Not good at all…

It’s nice to get back into the swing of writing… I didn’t get all of the team forecasts done, so I’ll just add as many as I can in April before calling it good. I DID rate all of the players by position for the first time ever, so I got THAT going for me…

I was able to watch a variety of different games, getting in most of the Phillies – Nationals game, the early innings of the Cubs – Braves slaughter (ouch if you are a Cubs fan like me), two innings of the Diamondbacks opener, and listened to about two innings of the Astros and Giants opener. That’s a good opening day.

Things that caught my attention:

How about that play by Mark Buehrle on a ball that rocketed off his left shin into foul territory. Buehrle ran it down and flipped the ball between his legs to first for the out. [MLB]

I don’t think the Cubs should allow Carlos Zambrano to start on opening day. He’s just too excitable. Once a ball fell in that he thought should have been caught in the first inning, the game went out the window.

Albert Pujols and Garrett Jones (who was immediately scooped up by Andy Finch in our fantasy baseball league) homered twice on opening day, which means they are on pace to hit 300 homers in 2010…

Jack Cust was released by the A’s – and isn’t too happy about it. Cust hits homers and draws walks – but that’s about it. Still – he produces runs for a team that doesn’t really have a cleanup hitter. [Fanhouse]

Buster Olney writes that the Yankees are already concerned about the decline in Jorge Posada‘s defense. But they have no worries about the lack of range displayed by Derek Jeter? [ESPN]

The Yankees were good – don’t get me wrong. Using the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed, they would be expected to win 97 games, which is still three more than anyone else – but a little lucky.

Just a little.

If I can digress a little bit, a lot was made about the large number of home runs hit in the new Yankee Stadium. Yankee batters hit 28 more homers at home than on the road. The Yankee pitching staff allowed 21 more homers at home than in road games. The net gain on this is about 70 runs. (Pete Palmer calculates the value of a homer at 1.44 runs – so that’s how I come to that conclusion.)

Despite this split, the offense as a whole at Yankee Stadium was actually lower than on the road (819 runs in Yankee Stadium, while 839 runs on the road) – and it was their own offense that was probably more responsible for that shortfall. what this means, of course, is that if you would expect to add 70 runs on the scoreboard but wind up 20 runs short, the REST of the hits must have been removed.

That means that there were a few other factors that had a greater affect on offense – the size of the foul territory, the shape of the outfield walls, the length of the infield grass, whatever – than whatever pushed homers over the right centerfield wall. For example, the Yankees hit only five triples at home, but 16 on the road – and they hit 25 fewer doubles at home, too. This suggests that by having a bit shorter wall in the alleys, some balls leave, but the rest are caught and outfielders could shade in and cut off sinking liners and bloop hits. Singles weren’t going through the infield – which suggests that the grass must have been REALLY thick, especially on that left side where veterans with less range inhabit the infield…

You wouldn’t want to make a TON of conclusions about it, but we’re talking about making up for a lot of missing hits in 2009. We’ll see how this holds up next year.

Let’s get back to the team review.

Season Recap:

The season started with the admission in spring training that Alex Rodriguez, recovering from off-season hip surgery, had also spent some time in the steroid cocktail lounge. A-Rod would miss the first month of the season, and take a little while to get back into playing shape. Still, the Yankees had made a number of significant moves – signing C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher – to rededicate themselves to the task of winning a championship in the new Yankee Stadium.

For a month or so, the Yankees stumbled out of the gate, winning and losing a couple, until a five game losing streak at home against Anaheim, Boston,and Tampa put them two games under .500. While some wondered if it was because A-Rod was gone, the truth was that the pitchers had a 5.79 ERA in April (See Chien-Ming Wang or Sergio Mitre) and that just couldn’t be overcome by any decent offense. After losing to Roy Halliday in Toronto on May 12th, Joe Girardi was already feeling the heat of the New York scribes who insisted that he might get fired before the All-Star break if things didn’t get turned around.

What followed the return of A-Rod to the lineup was the entire team feeling complete – and an eight game winning streak put the team on the way. Sure – the Yankees had a couple of rough stretches, they lost three in a row twice, and were just six games over .500 on June 23. A-Rod wasn’t yet hitting the way we were used to him hitting. The middle relief was staggering a little. Joba Chamberlain was hearing calls he might head back to the bullpen. Again, however, the noise was just that.

On June 24, the Yankees got things figured out. Bam! Seven game winning streak. Right after the all-star break – Bam! – eight game winning streak. If the Yankees lost three in a row, look out. Getting tossed by the White Sox, the Yankees responded with seven wins and twelve wins in thirteen games. I counted SIX winning streaks of seven games or longer. And after June, where they batted .253 with a .354 OBP, the team’s batting average was higher every month until the season ended.

The Yankees fought off Anaheim and Minnesota, then blew over a very good Philadelphia team to win the World Series.

Pitching:

The Yankees had a dominant starter in C.C. Sabathia, and then three decent guys in A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain. The fifth slot, however, wasn’t very good – and was a problem until the Yankees finally turned it over to either Philip Hughes or summer acquisition Chad Gaudin.

Sabathia was amazing – 230 innings of typical good work, saving his team about 26 runs over his time on the mound. A.J. Burnett won 13 and saved his team 10 runs in 207 innings. Andy Pettitte, who has done this forever, isn’t a great pitcher anymore – he’s league average – but with this offense, that’s good enough for 14 wins. If the Yankees could just leave Joba Chamberlain alone, he’d probably be okay. He was solid until the latter part of the season where he fell off and was about as far below average as Burnett was above it – 11 runs.

The fifth spot was crazy… Chien-Ming Wang went 1 – 6 with a 9.64 ERA, and will get to figure things out in Washington. For three years, he was a fine pitcher, but 2009 was ROUGH. The Yankees tried Sergio Mitre – nine starts and a 6.79 ERA. After that, the Yankees moved long reliever Philip Hughes in and he was pretty good: 96Ks in 86 innings, good control, and a solid ERA. I think he has as good a chance of anyone to be groomed for the closer role in a year or two. Chad Gaudin got six starts and was good enough.

The bullpen starts with the greatest closer of the last 20 years, the incomparable Mariano Rivera, who saved his team 21 runs in his 66.1 innings. With a 1.76 ERA, you’d never know he was pushing 40. Hughes was a good compliment, but the rest of the bullpen was up and down. Alfredo Aceves was tolerable – good control and won ten games in middle relief because the offense could come back from any number of deficits. David Robertson struck out 63 in 43.2 innings and saved his team a few runs here and there. Phil Coke didn’t allow too many hits – but the ones he allowed seemed to leave the yard (ten homers in 60 innings).

For 2010, the Yankees added Braves starter (and former Yankee) Javier Vasquez. You always worry about bringing a flyball guy to new Yankee Stadium, so while I love that the Yankees added a durable innings eater, I don’t think he’s going to be the ACE that he looked like in Atlanta. I think he’ll look like A.J. Burnett at best – with better control. ERA around 4.00 – and fans complaining it’s not closer to 3.00.

Additionally, the Yankees probably don’t NEED a regular fifth starter. They are the one team that could throw Sabathia, Burnett, and Vasquez all the time, Pettitte most of the time, and rotate Chamberlain or Gaudin in there to give people an extra day of rest from time to time. Seriously – Sabathia could make 40 starts (if not abused in his starts) and MIGHT win 25 or 28 games.

The rotation is going to be about as good as last year – the benefits of Vasquez offsetting whatever loss in productivity comes from Pettitte as he wraps up his career. The bullpen isn’t going to be better than last year – but it might get used more. Looking at this, I see a possible five run drop off defensively, but not not more than ten runs off from 2009.

Catching:

A lot is made about how easy it is to run on Jorge Posada. That really wasn’t a problem last year. Throw in the fact that his teams win, his pitchers are better than league average (two things he probably doesn’t deserve a LOT of credit for, but they are good), and the fact that he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – that’s pretty good. His backups, Francisco Cervelli and Jose Molina, do a pretty good job, though Molina won’t be here in 2010. What will make you nervous is Posada’s age, which might affect his offense this year.

Infield:

Mark Teixeira was all that you would want – impressive offensively, stable defensively. He’s probably the best first baseman in the AL right now, though Kendry Morales is pretty special, too.

Robinson Cano is in the discussion for best second baseman in baseball. He has a great glove and might win a batting title – all while hitting 20 – 25 homers.

Derek Jeter remains the most productive shortstop in the AL because he can still hit, gets on base a lot, has enough power, and is so good a hitter that it overrides the fact that he’s a miserable glove – that horrible decision to give him a Gold Glove last year not withstanding.

Alex Rodriguez still towers over most third basemen, finishing 30 – 100 again as he has every year since about 1980… His defense at the position has improved every year, but he’s still not really all that good.

What scares you is the lack of depth here. Ramiro Pena is a good fielder and hits a little. Jerry Hairston is gone and nobody else looks like a major leaguer. Would you trust Juan Miranda with a job?

I’d love to tell you that this group is going to sustain its production in 2010, but I can’t help but think that age is going to creep up on Jeter or AROD, and if one or the other misses a significant amount of time, it would be problematic (although possibly a benefit defensively). I look for this group to decline by 30 runs offensively in 2010, and for the defense to slip by five or ten runs.

Outfield:

Last year, the Yankees had a productive Johnny Damon, a tolerable but not impressive Melky Cabrera, and the fun Nick Swisher from left to right. Only Swisher was mildly above average defensively, but all three were quality contributors with the bat.

Cabrera was moved to Atlanta in the Javier Vasquez trade, which means that Brett Gardner will be the full time centerfielder. I like this – Gardner is better defensively and despite the lack of power is probaby going to produce more runs because he gets on base. I like him in the #2 spot behind Jeter.

Losing Damon will be tough, but the Yankees acquired outfielder Curtis Granderson for prospect Austin Jackson to play left. After running productivity numbers for the two, it’s literally a wash – with the Yankees getting younger. Granderson has actually slipped two straight years after looking like one of the greats in 2007. I like him as a left fielder, though – and the pitchers will, too.

Swisher returns to right field, will back up Teixeira from time to time. The fourth outfielder will be Randy Winn, who is not much offensively anymore but remains a good outfielder. If he has to play a lot, that would be a problem, though.

The net change of this group, however, I think will be positive. I like them to score about 10 runs more than last year, and save 10 runs defensively.

Bench:

Last year’s DH was Hideki Matsui, who gets to ply his trade as an Angel in 2010. In his place will be Nick Johnson, who has a fantastic OBP, sneaks a little power in there, and is a threat to get injured.

After that, I don’t see much of a bench. Just Pena in the infield, and just Winn in the outfield.

Prospects:

AAA Scranton manager Butch Wynagar’s best pitching prospect is probably reliever Mark Melancon, who got a shot with the big club in 2009. With Scranton, Melancon was 4 – 0 wiht a 2.89 ERA, fanning 54 and walking 11 in 53 innings. Nobody else impresses me… The best hitter was Austin Jackson, a speed demon who was traded to Detroit for Granderson. Jackson hit .300 with nine triples and 24 steals. Kevin Russo is an infielder with some skills, hitting .326 but without much power and with Cano and Jeter around isn’t going to get a shot without someone going down with an injury. He’s probably as good as Ramiro Pena, but with better on base skills. If you haven’t heard of Russo, it’s because he was a 20th round pick in 2006 and has surprised a lot of people working his way up through the ranks. I think the kid can play, though.

The Trenton Thunder (AA) features the Yankee’s best prospect, catcher Jesus Montero, who hit .317 in AA after being moved up from Tampa (where, in a tough park, he hit .356). He looks like the new Jorge Posada and will get Posada’s job in 2012 or so. He’s just 20. Eduardo Nunez has some hitting skills, but little patience. He hit .322 in Trenton with nine homers. It was the first time that the undrafted Dominican shorstop looked like a hitter.

If you are looking for pitching prospects, though, Trenton might have a few. Michael Dunn fanned 76 in 53.1 innings, earning a trip to Scranton and eventually New York. Starter Zach McAllister had a 2.23 ERA with good control in 22 starts. Josh Schmidt has taken a while to get going but had a 1.61 ERA for Trenton last year – he has great K/9 stats and seems very hard to hit. He’s just getting a bit old for a prospect.

At Tampa, David Phelps – a Notre Dame arm – looks to be making nice progress, and starter Lance Pendleton or D.J. Mitchell might get a chance to move up to Trenton after solid enough seasons in A+ ball. Each could stand to work on their control, though. And Austin Romine is a kid with a little power and speed that might work his way up the Yankee ladder in time, but as a catcher might be blocked by Montero. 2008 third round pick David Adams hit .281 with some power and patience – I like his chances to get to the Yankees (or get traded) by 2013.

Forecast:

Barring catastrophic injuries, the Yankees will be good in 2010. They won’t win 110 games, I don’t think. Healthy, the Yankees win 93 games and make the playoffs again. Part of me thinks that it will be more likely 95 wins, but if the system says 93, I’ll go with that.

Unlike the guys who play between the baselines, determining the value of a catcher defensively is a much harder proposition for me. I haven’t been able to translate defense into runs the way I have for all the other positions, but I AM able to look at the responsibilities of a catcher and determine what teams are benefiting more from good catching than others. Here’s how I do it.

There are seven things for which a catcher would get credit as being solid defensively. If the catchers for a team are above average in a category, they get a point. If below average, they lose a point. The top score is seven, the lowest score (obviously) would be -7. Here are the categories:

W/L Percentage: Score a point for a winning record, take one away for being below .500.

Adjusted ERA: If the team’s staff has a better than league average ERA (4.43), score a point.

Mistakes Per Game: Essentially errors and passed balls are added up. The norm is about .11 mistakes a game for AL catchers. Score a point for doing better than that. Otherwise, take one away. The only time this is patently unfair is when a team has a knuckleballer – so this works against Boston right now. But it’s just a single category and I tend to give that team the benefit of the doubt on that category.

Mobililty: Mobility is the total number of assists that aren’t tied to stolen bases and the number of putouts that aren’t strikeouts. A good catcher blocks the plate and gets outs on throws home, or can race out of the crouch to snare bunts and make plays in the field. In the AL, the average catcher made .38 plays requiring mobility. Score a point for beating that number.

Fielding Percentage (not counting strikeouts): I guess someone had to get credit for the putout when a batter strikes out. Unfortunately, catching strike three isn’t really “fielding”. So, I look at the fielding percentage after removing putouts for Ks. The average catcher has a fielding percentage of about .914 on balls in play or when runners are trying to advance. Beat it, and score a point.

Assists Per Game: These are assists NOT tied to stolen bases and is used to grade the catcher’s ability to make good throws. The league average is .23 assists per game.

Stolen Base Percentage: Can a catcher hold the running game in check? If so, score a point. The league average is 73.6% – which is awfully high, don’t you think?

The best catcher (well, team of catchers) can score a seven – and it happens from time to time. As it turns out, there was a seven in the AL in 2009 – and it was your Detroit Tigers led by Gerald Laird. The Tigers had a winning record, an adjusted ERA of 4.26, cut off the running game, made few errors, few mistakes in total, had great mobility, and had an above average number of assists not tied to stolen bases.

I’ll list the table here to show you where the catchers rank defensively and then discuss the nuts and bolts in the player comments below.

ERA

WPct

SB%

FPct-K

MTK/G

Mobility

Asst/G

Rank

AL AVG

4.43

.500

73.6%

0.914

0.11

0.38

0.23

***

BAL

5.05

.395

78.3%

0.918

0.10

0.50

0.16

-1

BOS

4.20

.586

86.8%

0.925

0.10

0.47

0.20

3

CHA

4.02

.488

75.9%

0.899

0.09

0.18

0.11

-3

CLE

5.50

.401

77.1%

0.948

0.09

0.36

0.21

-3

DET

4.26

.528

63.8%

0.975

0.10

0.43

0.30

7

KCA

4.57

.401

74.5%

0.873

0.17

0.45

0.18

-5

LAA

4.41

.599

76.6%

0.875

0.14

0.41

0.43

1

MIN

4.28

.534

77.0%

0.933

0.12

0.32

0.10

-1

NYA

4.34

.636

70.6%

0.925

0.10

0.37

0.25

5

OAK

4.32

.463

70.8%

0.922

0.08

0.35

0.27

3

SEA

3.98

.525

60.4%

0.935

0.13

0.35

0.27

3

TBA

4.33

.519

76.3%

0.905

0.09

0.37

0.23

0

TEX

4.20

.537

69.7%

0.858

0.15

0.34

0.17

-1

TOR

4.61

.463

65.9%

0.911

0.13

0.41

0.32

-1

Joe Mauer (MIN): Hands down the best catcher in baseball, wouldn’t you think? An offensive force who chose to try and take advantage of hitter’s counts and blasted his way to creating 131.6 runs. Last year, Mauer wasn’t as dominating against the run, but he still did a few good things. His backups, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales can contribute. Both can hit a little and catch enough – but had limits. Redmond struggled against baserunners, who were successful 35 out of 40 times, while Morales had 5 passed balls and 3 errors in just 183 innings.

Victor Martinez (CLE/BOS): A remarkable hitter who bounced back from an unproductive and injury riddled 2008 to hit 23 homers, drive in 108 runs, and generate 108.8 runs of offense. His catching skills don’t match his offensive numbers – easy to run on, not exceptionally mobile. And, when asked to play first base, shows his lack of mobility there. Still, he’s 30 runs better than any other catcher offensively, you can live with the rest of it most days.

Kurt Suzuki (OAK): Would you have guessed he was the third most productive offensive catcher? Mid range power and average, can run some (78.45 Runs Created) and his stats aren’t helped any by playing in Oakland. Plays a lot of innings. Not great against the run and his teams haven’t been remarkably successful, but don’t blame this guy. Oakland’s catchers scored at 3 points, which is five above average counters, and just missing on mobility and the team’s winning percentage. He’s a great catcher.

Jorge Posada (NYY): Still a very productive player (74.98 Runs Created). Good power, good batting average, and patient at the plate. Defensively, Posada found some of his youth. His backups, Jose Molina (now in Toronto) and Francisco Cervelli may not hit like Jorge, but they are more than his equal defensively – a nice thing for the Yankees to have. Overall, the team ranked at +5 – six above average categories and just missed the league average for mobility. Cervelli was great against the run – gunning down 10 of 23 runners.

A.J. Pierzynski (CWS): Hit .300 but his power numbers were down a bit. Contributes with the bat (69.22 Runs Created), but his defense is not helping out. Not very mobile, makes a few too many mistakes, and the team fell below .500. The final tally was -3, which means that only the team’s ERA and the total mistakes per game numbers were above average. Everything else was not. Ramon Castro was #2 last year, and he isn’t known for his defense either (though he threw well in 2009).

Mike Napoli (LAA): An impressive hitter – power, patience, hit .272. His backup, Jeff Mathis, is the glove wizard. The net is a very productive combination. Slightly above average catching (+1) and above average hitting.

Miguel Olivo (KCA): Hits for power, but doesn’t get on base (53.59). Has a strong throwing arm, but doesn’t always get the ball where he was aiming. Makes an awful lot of mistakes, and for a guy who looks lean, isn’t very mobile. Royals catching was well below average (-5) because John Buck couldn’t throw people out and even though he’s less mistake prone, EVERYBODY is less mistake prone than Olivo. In 2010, both Olivo and Buck will be gone. Olivo is in Colorado, where if he gets off to a hot start might hit 30 homers and make 15 errors… Buck is in Toronto.

Jason Kendall, who inherits this job, would rank in this spot offensively and I don’t believe that things are going to improve that much defensively. You never know.

Matt Wieters (BAL): In two years, he may be the guy challenging Joe Mauer for the top rung. For now, he’s got work to do. A good hitter (.288, .412 slugging – 49.04 Runs Created) and not horrible catching (-1 as a team), I like where Baltimore is heading here. Gregg Zaun is gone, so Chad Moeller can back things up himself. Moeller didn’t throw anybody out trying to steal, though. Okay, two people, but that’s it. Maybe they can sign Paul Bako to teach Wieters a few tricks.

Rod Barajas (TOR): His batting average tanked to .226, but his power numbers were up (46.99 Runs Created). I think Toronto would miss Barajas, but Raul Chavez was equally good at shutting down the running game and not horribly error prone. Chavez is also more mobile these days and offensively they were a wash. Chavez is cheaper, though… The 2010 Blue Jays have only one catcher on the 40 man roster, Royals vet John Buck. After that, it’s non-roster invites like Chavez, Jose Molina and former first round pick J.P. Arencibia. Arencibia, out of Tennessee, has good power and some skills, but right now looks like he’d have Barajas’ batting numbers.

Before I let this get away, John Buck wasn’t horrible last year. Defensively, as mentioned, he was stronger than Olivo but everyone focused on Olivo’s homers and so he got to play more. Buck hits for some power and, per 27 outs, was actually more productive hitting than Olivo because he gets on base more often. I’m NOT suggesting that Buck is a hidden all star, but rather that if he got 450 at bats and kept his batting average around .240 rather than .220, he would probably help a team more often than not.

Jason Varitek (BOS): Now Victor Martinez’s job. Varitek started out okay and just faded to 14 – 51 – .209 (43.3 Runs Created). His slugging and OBP numbers aren’t very good either. ‘Tek also allowed 87% of the runners to steal – 108 successes against 16 runners gunned down. Martinez and George Kottaras weren’t any better (Martinez was worse in Boston, about the same if you combine his days in Cleveland). Martinez is going to help score runs in Boston, but I think the pitchers might miss Varitek. The young Varitek anyway…

Gerald Laird (DET): Didn’t get the lion’s share of the credit for Detroit’s comeback season because as a hitter, he’s not one. Creating just 41.3 runs with his .225 batting average and .320 slugging percentage, nobody’s putting Laird on their fantasy team if they can help it. But he was solid as a defensive stopper – above average in all seven categories and only Kenji Johjima was harder to run on. Laird tossed out more than 40% of all runners.

Kelly Shoppach (CLE): Did I read that right? Shoppach was hit 18 times by pitches? What did he do??? As a hitter, he strikes out WAY too much (39.77 Runs Created). He’s better defensively than Victor Martinez was, but that’s like saying I’m taller than my seven-year-old. He was a bit more mistake prone, but better against the run and much more mobile. Lou Marson, the former Phillies prospect, will get every chance to win the job and I gather he will. Marson will hit in the 280s with medium power and some patience. And, he can throw, too. Oddly enough, in terms of total production, Shoppach was better in Cleveland than Victor Martinez because if you count everything, you have to include Victor’s lack of defense at first base.

Dioner Navarro (TB): After such a nice 2008, Navarro crashed and burned in 2009. His batting average fell to .218, his power was gone, and he doesn’t get on base in other ways so that was a big zilch at the end of the lineup (32.63 Runs Created). His reputation against the running game may have stopped more people than actually stole bases – the numbers show him to be league average and in the seven categories, Tampa scored ZERO – just as many above average categories than below average categories. The team says they want Navarro to come into camp lighter, so check the Diamond Notes in the spring.

Kenji Johjima (SEA): Back in Japan – his batting average and playing time fell off (despite being more productive per 27 outs than many of the guys ahead of him – the net was just 29.91 Runs Created). Defensively, he and Rob Johnson weren’t too bad – just a few too many mistakes and marginal mobility.

Rob Johnson, who – like Grady Sizemore – had surgeries over two-thirds of his body in the offseason, comes into 2010 as the odds-on starter. And yet Johnson wasn’t all that solid, generating just 25.2 runs while being a slightly above average catcher (compared to Johjima, who was awesome).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX): He needed to have a big season with Laird gone and Teagarden coming up behind him and it didn’t happen. Salty wasn’t horrible defensively but Teagarden is better – better against the run and more mobile. As a hitter, Saltalamacchia didn’t cut it – just 29.3 runs created with an OBP under .300 and the SLG under .375. If it was .320 and .425, he’d be hard to replace.

As it was, Taylor Teagarden hit worse than Saltalamacchia, generating 19.3 runs in his 200+ plate appearances. So, Teagarden’s chance may have passed as well – meaning Max Ramirez may wind up the starting catcher. The only problem with that is that even Ramirez didn’t hit in AAA last year – batting just .234 with a .336 SLG in Oklahoma City. The Rangers THOUGHT they had the position locked down two years ago, and now Laird is gone and nobody has really stepped forward. I think Saltalamacchia, because he’s likely the better hitter of the group, will eventually take over for good.

Final Thoughts… You want to know how valuable Joe Mauer is? Look at how many catchers generate barely 50 runs of offense and realize that Mauer is 80 to 90 runs better than that. AND, he’s a great catcher. He was easily the most valuable player in the AL last year and will deserve whatever monster five or six year deal he can get.

Cliff Lee dominated the Rockies to give the Phillies the early lead in their NLDS tilt. I like watching Cliff Lee because (a) he throws strikes and (b) he works fast. A Cliff Lee/Brad Penny game could easily get done in 75 minutes were it not for commercial breaks. I absolutely believe the Phillies can repeat, but they need long outings from the starters. And they aren’t happy about being the afternoon game, either. [SI]

The Yankees got big hits from Derek Jeter and A-Rod, and a decent start from C.C. Sabathia to rout a tired Twins team. If they survive whatever comes of Jorge Posada’s being miffed about letting Jose Molina catch A.J. Burnett – and Posada didn’t look comfortable catching yesterday – they’ll easily move on. It won’t be easy, but I know why many (including Vegas) has the Yankees in the World Series.

The Cards-Dodgers tilt was a bit sloppier, but I’m sure the Cards weren’t expecting to lose with Carpenter on the hill in the opener. If any series goes the distance, it will be this one as the teams are pretty darned even.

In Other News…

Nationals shorstop Christian Guzman’s shoulder will require arthroscopic surgery – but he hopes to be ready for the spring. Guzman missed a lot of time in September – and Ian Desmond showed some spark – so if Guzman wants his job back, he’s got to get healthy. [ESPN]

The Mets received outfielder Chris Carter and first baseman Eddie Lora from Boston to complete the Billy Wagner trade. Lora’s first years haven’t been awesome, but he’s 20. Carter, on the other hand, has some ability as a hitter. At 26, he’s half the age of most Mets outfielders of the last four or five years… Carter will probably play a lot next year (if he stays healthy). [ESPN]

What do you think? I thought I was the only one who was tired of Chip Caray. Apparently not…

Happy Birthday! Johnny Lush, who was a 16 year old rookie for the Phillies back at the turn of the last century, was born on this date in 1885. Also celebrating: Donie Bush (1887), Wally Moses (1910), Danny Murtaugh (1917) , Ed Kirkpatrick (1944), Paul Splitorff (1946), Enos Cabell (1949), Mike Morgan (1959), and Olmedo Saenz (1970). Saenz, Saenz… Everywhere there’s Saenz…

Afterthoughts… A Florida family sued on behalf of a twelve-year-old girl who caught Ryan Howard’s 200th homer and was immediately escorted to the Phillies clubhouse where she was given a signed ball as a replacement. The Phillies returned the ball – but aren’t talking about it. And what does the story of Jennifer Valdivia tell us? That there is something seriously wrong with the legal system when it’s used this way and also makes me wonder what the parents were thinking – assuming, of course, that they went with Jennifer for the exchange – in agreeing to the exchange and then asking for it back. Will it soon be sold on EBay? If so, don’t bid on it. [ESPN]