North Korea"s Nuclear Expansion

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD

2015.02.27
07:57

North Korea could be on track to have an arsenal of 100 nuclear weapons by 2020, according to a new research report. The prediction, from experts on North Korea, goes well beyond past estimates and should force renewed attention on a threat that has been eclipsed by other crises.

At the moment, the United States and five other major powers are negotiating an agreement that would constrain the nuclear program in Iran, which does not possess any nuclear weapons. North Korea, on the other hand, is estimated to have already produced 10 to 16 weapons since 2003.

The new assessment comes from Joel Wit, a former American negotiator with North Korea who is now a senior fellow with the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security. They conclude that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have been growing since 2009 and are now “poised for significant expansion over the next five years.” That poses serious threats for other countries in Asia and for the United States.

Details about the programs are hard to come by given North Korea’s closed system. As a result, the researchers have outlined possible scenarios for the next five years, ranging from 20 nuclear weapons to 100, which would put North Korea on a par with India, Pakistan and Israel. Independently, China has also estimated the program to be capable of producing the higher range of weapons, another expert on North Korea told The Times.

North Korea already has 1,000 ballistic missiles including the medium-range land-based Nodong missile, which is mobile and accurate enough to attack cities, ports and military bases in Japan and South Korea. The country may also possess limited long-range missiles that can reach targets in the United States, the report said. It has also succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear weapons so they can fit on both medium-range and long-range missiles.

The more missiles and nuclear weapons North Korea produces, the more likely the government will seek to sell them. Just this week, Reuters reported that United Nations experts have found new evidence that a North Korean shipping company has renamed most of its vessels to disguise their origin and continue illicit shipments in violation of United Nations sanctions. Earlier this month, Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a speech in Tokyo, called North Korea “the most significant source of instability in the region” and denounced its “reckless pursuit of a larger and larger nuclear program and the missiles to deliver those weapons around the world.”

But the analysis hasn’t been matched by action. The Obama administration and its partners (China, the North’s major supplier of food and fuel; South Korea; Japan; and Russia) have failed to find a way to address the problem or engage the North in sustained negotiations to curb its nuclear weapon and missile production. They cannot merely keep talking about having talks. Mr. Wit’s and Mr. Albright’s research shows the growing danger if they cannot bring North Korea back to the bargaining table.