Dodgers vs. Braves – Free Pick August 17th

It’s been a good August here at thesportsgeek.com, winning eight of our last eleven baseball games (eleven of fourteen if you count wagers, as three games were victorious double-dips). We’ve been able to do it without bailing out and picking heavy favorites to pad the record (no individual wager that didn’t also include a -1.5 runline wager came at a price greater than -130). The approach has been to find reasonably priced lines and look for good opportunities to make a profit. Tonight’s game falls along those same lines, looking at the Dodgers visiting the Braves to open a three-game set.

Atlanta has been solid at home this season, winning 57% of their games, however they are still a below average money wager, totaling -$36.56 at home thus far in 2012. Tonight has the feel of another one of those games where the Braves are available for a price that might not be justified. Tommy Hanson is coming off two starts where he allowed just one run, however he lasted only five innings in each appearance.

In his five starts before those, he allowed a total of 24 runs in roughly the same number of innings. Then he went on the 15-day disabled list. Today will be his first appearance back with the major league club after a decent rehab start last week in Gwinnet.

The Dodgers meanwhile will send out Chris Capuano, who is fresh off one of his best outings of the year, and eight inning, two-hit, no-run gem against Milwaukee. Very quietly Capuano has put together an outstanding season with an ERA of just 3.11. His record is a pedestrian 11-8 simply because he is getting an average of two less runs per game in support than the Braves Hanson (3.3 to 5.2).

The Dodgers can smell blood in the water with the suspension of Melky Cabrera weakening their chief rival in NL West. They have won six of their last eight games and are scoring a bundle of runs in the process (nice to have you back Matt Kemp!) They’ve averaged more than six runs a game over the past week, and if they can get anything close to that tonight, they should have no trouble getting Capuano his 12th win of the season.

My favorite thing about this game isn’t just the fact that the numbers and metrics favor the Dodgers; it is the fact I can get them at plus-money. Gotta love that. Give me LA tonight in a great value wager.

Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +109

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