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C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001835
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, ISN. JOINT STAFF FOR J5
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2034
TAGS: PRELPARMMOPSEAIDIRAFPK
SUBJECT: 2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS (DCT),
SESSION 3 PART 2: AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN AND IRAN
Classified By: Classified by ADCM William Weinstein.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
-------
¶1. (C) During U.S.-China Defense Consultative Talks June
24, 2009, Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy (USDP) presented the U.S. perspective on the
situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, stressing the
importance of China's role in the region. PRC military
officials perceived different underlying causes for the
situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, viewing the problem
in Afghanistan as essentially political and instability in
Pakistan as stemming from the security situation. China is
still considering the U.S. request to ship non-lethal
supplies through PRC territory in support of Afghanistan
stabilization efforts, urged the U.S. not to apply a
"double-standard" in labeling terrorist groups, and
asserted that Chinese Uighurs released from Guantanamo
should be repatriated to China. The PLA identified a
"window of opportunity" for progress on the Iranian nuclear
issue, but admitted that Tehran might not be ready to talk,
and the possibility for strategic miscalculation between
Iran and Israel posed another possible obstacle to progress.
End Summary.
U.S. Views on Security and Stability in Afghanistan and
Pakistan
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶2. (C) Leading off the discussion on Afghanistan and
Pakistan, USDP described the two countries as priority
areas of interest for the Obama administration, and
conveyed the United States' hope that China would use its
relations with the Pakistani military to urge the latter to
focus on combating the insurgency and extremism. Craig
Mullaney, Principal Director for Central Asia in the Office
of the Secretary of Defense, briefed the Afghanistan-
Pakistan Strategic Review, stressing that the U.S. has a
vital national interest in security threats posed by
extremists in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and outlining the
primary U.S. objectives in the region. EAP/CM Director David
Shear told the PLA that U.S.-China cooperation is a
necessary part of the international community's
stabilization efforts in the region, and stressed that the
U.S. does not seek hegemony in the region or to displace
China's influence in Pakistan.
PLA View: Afghanistan and Pakistan Are Fundamentally
Different Problems
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶3. (C) MG Yang Hui, Director of the PLA Intelligence
Department, presented China's views on Afghanistan and
Pakistan, noting that the two countries neighbor China and
that China seeks peace and stability in the region. China
wants to avoid conflict between Pakistan and India, and
seeks to ensure that terrorist groups do not go unchecked in
the region. MG Yang stressed that China sees the situations
in Afghanistan and Pakistan as having different underlying
causes, with the problem in Afghanistan essentially being
political while the root cause of the instability in
Pakistan is a security issue. He noted that throughout its
history Afghanistan has never enjoyed a strong central
government, and tribal leadership had always had strong
influence. The Taliban currently control over 70 percent of
the territory and seek to take back control of the entire
country, making the government's struggle against them a
struggle for survival. In contrast, MG Yang claimed, the
Pakistan issue was an internal security matter, and the
Pakistan government's top priority should be to prevent the
Taliban from spreading within Pakistan,
as well as supporting stabilization efforts. He added that
the differing root causes should indicate to the
international community that outsiders should respect the
two countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity and
take "comprehensive" counterterrorism measures.
¶4. (C) China, MG Yang observed, remains a developing
country and contributes to the two countries "to the best of
its ability," including US$180 million in assistance to
Afghanistan and the cancellation of official debt. In the
next five years, Yang reported, China would provide an
additional US$75 million as well as 31 million RMB in
military assistance. For Pakistan, China provided a US$100
million grant in April 2008 and has decided to provide an
additional 60 million RMB to assist internally displaced
persons there.
¶5. (C) MG Yang noted that the Obama administration's new
approach on Afghanistan and Pakistan marks a major
departure from the previous administration, especially in
its comprehensive emphasis on political, economic and
international efforts in addition to military actions. He
stressed that China is sincere in its emphasis on
U.S.-China cooperation in the region.
Non-Lethal Shipping Request, Guantanamo Uighurs
--------------------------------------------- --
¶6. (C) USDP reiterated the U.S. request to use commercial
shipping to move non-lethal supplies across China to support
international efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Lieutenant
General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff
replied that China has received the request, but numerous
agencies within the PRC government need to consider the
proposal before making a decision. Linking the U.S. request
to PRC concerns, LTG Ma then referenced China's interest in
the connections terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan
might have with separatist forces within China. LTG Ma
claimed that many of these forces trained in Central Asia,
and asked that the U.S. not apply a "double-standard" in
determining terrorist groups and
individuals. He raised the example of "terrorists" that
were being released from Guantanamo, complaining that the 16
Uighurs in that group should be sent back to China but were
instead being relocated to third countries. EAP/CM Director
Shear responded that the United States previously explained
the Guantanamo closure process to the Chinese and that many
opportunities remain for U.S.-China cooperation
on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
¶7. (C) LTG Ma presented China's assessment that Central
Asia was serving as a training ground and base of
operations for terrorist groups and that the security
situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan has a strong impact on
security in northwest China, giving China a special
"interest (in) and responsibility" for regional stability.
China is willing to work with the international community to
"do its part," he asserted. China enjoys a long-term
strategic partnership with Pakistan at various levels of
government, LTG Ma noted, and China employs these channels
of communication to support counter-terrorism efforts in
Pakistan.
The PLA's View of Iran
----------------------
¶8. (C) Turning to Iran, MG Yang remarked that China
clearly supports the international nuclear nonproliferation
regime and opposes Iran's development of nuclear weapons. He
maintained that China supports the international community's
efforts to resolve the issue through diplomacy
and that the U.S. and China enjoy strong communication and
coordination on the issue. He observed that there is at
present a "window of opportunity" for progress on the
nuclear issue. In MG Yang's view, Iranian nuclear
development was driven by three factors: 1) its own
national security concerns, 2) a desire to increase its
role in the Middle East, and 3) a need to enhance
internalpolitical coherence.
¶9. (C) MG Yang noted that the U.S. government has signaled
its intention to improve relations with Iran and is prepared
to remove forces from Iraq, and that the Iranian side has
taken a more positive attitude as a result. He suggested
that, by strengthening alliances among Shia outside Iran,
Tehran's influence in the region has increased. The result
is that many in Iran argue that Tehran's hard-line position
vis-a-vis the U.S. should be relaxed. MG Yang added that
the effort to develop nuclear weapons has not proven to be a
unifying political force for Iran. He argued that, in light
of these developments, now was the time for engagement and
negotiations with Tehran while showing respect for its
security concerns.
¶10. (C) MG Yang cautioned, however, that two major
obstacles to progress remained. First, it remains unclear if
Iran was willing to enter into negotiations. From the
Iranian perspective, MG Yang claimed, recent U.S. overtures
could be seen as a victory for the Iranian revolution.
Before the recent election in Iran, both major candidates
announced that the U.S should be prepared to make
concessions before talks could begin.
¶11. (C) Second, MG Yang cautioned that there remains the
possibility of strategic miscalculation between Iran and
Israel. In contrast to recent improvements in Iran's
perception of its security environment, Israel has a grim
assessment of the Iran nuclear issue, and has labeled Iran
the most urgent threat to its survival. According to MG
Yang, Israel has announced its intention to strike Iranian
nuclear facilities with military force if increased U.S.
engagement with Iran fails to show progress. Iran has
labeled Israel a "tumor" on the region and was supporting
anti-Israel forces. Strategic miscalculation would lead to
the potential for serious turbulence in the region. MG Yang
reported that China is talking to Iran through many channels
to emphasize the importance of cooperation with the
international community, and stressed that the resumption of
talks is in Iran's own interest. USDP expressed
appreciation for China's restraint on arms sales to Iran and
said she hoped this will continue until the issue is
resolved. She also urged China to abide by international
sanctions against Iran.
December 2007 NIE
----------------
¶12. (C) MG Yang asked the U.S. delegation whether the
assessment of the Iranian nuclear weapons program announced
in the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate still
applies. Robert Gromoll, State Department Acting Director
from ISN asserted that it does, but noted that the recent
IAEA Director General's report on the Iranian nuclear issue
contained clear danger signals, including the possibility of
undeclared nuclear activities and a military dimension to
the nuclear program. USDP added that Iran's continued
enrichment activities would in time give Iran a breakout
capability.
¶13. (U) U.S. Participants:
Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
(USDP); Dan Piccuta, Charge d'Affaires; Michael Schiffer,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD); for East Asia
David Shear, EAP/CM, Department of State; Brig Gen Joseph
Callahan, Deputy Director for Politico-Military Affairs -
Asia, Joint Staff J5; Brig Gen William Uhle, USPACOM Deputy
J5; RDML Bradley Gerhrke, U.S. Defense Attache in Beijing;
John Plumb, OSD Principal Director for Nuclear and Missile
Defense Policy; Craig Mullaney, OSD Principal Director for
Central Asia; Robert Gromoll Acting Director for Regional
Affairs ISN, Department of State.
¶14. (U) PRC Participants
Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA
General Staff; Major General Qian Lihua, Director, Ministry
of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office (MND/FAO); Major
General Yang Hui, Director, Intelligence Department, PLA
General Staff Department;
Rear Admiral Yi Changzhi, Deputy Chief of Staff, PLA Navy;
Major General Zhu Chenghu, Director, Department of
International Strategic Studies, PLA National Defense
University (NDU); Senior Captain Guan Youfei, Deputy
Director, MND/FAO; Senior Colonel Wang Kebin, Deputy
Director, Operations Department, PLA General Staff
Department; Major General Zhao Ning, PRC Defense Attache in
Washington; Senior Captain Li Ji, Director, North American
and Oceania Bureau, MND/FAO; Councilor Ma Zhanwu, North
American and Oceania Affairs, MFA;
Lieutenant Colonel Chu Weiwei, Interpreter, MND/FAO
¶15. (U) USDP has cleared this cable.
GOLDBERG