5 Places Russia Will Send Its Space Probes Next

NPO Lavochkin, Russia's premier manufacturer of unmanned planetary probes, just refreshed its wish list. The company outlined a series of robotic missions into the Solar System approved for development and launch in the next decade. This is one seriously ambitious plan—especially if one remembers that not a single Russian probe have made it beyond the Earth's orbit since the collapse of the USSR more than two decades ago.

Still: If even half of the goodies on the list make it to the launch pad, it would be a true renaissance of the Russian planetary exploration. So here are a few highlights from the menu, and a few comments on each mission's realistic timeframe and chances for success.

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The Moon: Touching Ice

NPO Lavochkin hopes to jump-start its deep-space program around 2019 by visiting the moon, the closest destination possible. But Russian scientists did not make it easy for themselves. They plan to land the first of three probes, called Luna-Glob, near the lunar south pole, where suspected deposits of water ice might have been buried for eons. Touching the lunar water ice would be a huge deal not only for planetary geology but also for the future of human space exploration, as many people planning or imagining future missions would love to tap into local resources to cut down how much spacecraft have to carry with them. Some incurable optimists even hope to use the lunar water to convert it into oxygen and liquid hydrogen to refuel departing rockets.

If successful, Luna-Glob would pave the way to a more sophisticated lander and to a mission to return soil samples from the Moon in the second half of the 2020s. In the next step, an international robotic base could be built near the south pole by the end of 2020s, inhabited by rovers, geological sensors, telescopes and, possibly, the first experimental machines to convert lunar ice into hydrogen fuel. Finally, in the 2030s, Russian cosmonauts might finally arrive for a visit to establish the first permanent human foothold on another world.

Will it happen? Given Lavochkin's history and the company's current commitments, we'd consider the 2019 launch date for the first Luna-Glob a bit too optimistic. But with all the recent international attention, the mission does have a good chance to fly at the turn of the new decade.

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Mars: The Life Question

One of the reasons we think Lavochkin's moon missions might have to wait is because the company's involvement in the ExoMars 2018 project. ExoMars will be perhaps the most sophisticated attempt to answer a seemingly eternal question whether there is, or ever has been, life on Mars. Europe will supply a rover wielding a drill capable of penetrating up to two meters into the Martian soil. But it will be Lavochkin's job to gently take the rover through the riskiest phase of a parachute descent and rocket-propelled landing on Mars using a custom-built four-legged platform.

Will it happen? Not counting the very first Soviet Mars-3 lander in 1971—which survived on the Martian surface for a few seconds and then fell silent, only to be rediscovered by satellites images in 2012—Russia has never quite succeeded at landing on Mars, suffering through a string of failures and bad luck. Still, ESA had no choice but to turn to Russia for this project after NASA suddenly (and some allege intentionally) withdrew from the joint project. Yet even with a free ride on the Russian Proton rocket, ExoMars faces serious technical and financial challenges. We wouldn't recommend betting a huge amount of money on its planned launch really going off in 2018. And because of the unforgivable orbital mechanics of missions to Mars, even a minor delay would mean a two-year wait until 2020.

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Boomerang: Bringing Back a Piece of Mars' Moon

If ExoMars does succeed—and even if it doesn't—Russia hopes to build upon its partnership with Europe to send another mission into the orbit of Mars around 2024. The Boomerang probe would land on the Martian moon Phobos, scoop its soil, and then fly its precious cargo back to Earth.

Will It Happen? If this mission scenario sounds familiar, that is because the Boomerang is a successor to the disastrous Phobos-Grunt spacecraft, which got stranded in the Earth's orbit just hours after its launch in November 2011. This time, however, the redesigned mission will stand on the shoulders of the ExoMars experience and have much broader international team of engineers behind it. In turn, the Boomerang project could lead to soil sample return from Mars itself, moving earthlings ever closer to resolving the mystery of life on the Red Planet.

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Laplas: A Longshot to Ganymede

Even the mighty Soviet space program never ventured beyond Mars. But now, Russian scientists hope to send a mission called Laplas (after French scientist Pierre-Simon Laplace) all the way to Jupiter's system in 2026. Most importantly, the spacecraft should involve the world's first lander to touch down on Jupiter's mighty (and possibly watery!) moon Ganymede.

Will it happen? The official launch date for the Laplas mission is not an accident. The 2026 plan places Laplas beyond the 10-year Federal Space Program of the Russian Federation, which is expected to be approved this month and cover all Russian space activities from 2016 to 2025. A spacecraft as complex as this one will take a long time to build and will doubtlessly be subjected to technical delays and budget problems along the way. Therefore, it is a long-shot project we cannot realistically expected to lift off before the end of the 2020s. Add to that a nearly decade-long travel time to Jupiter and we're talking about a spacecraft that won't actually land on Ganymede until the end of 2030s.

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InterGelioZond: Burn by the Sun

The InterGelioZond is designed to approach the Sun as closely as possible without melting itself. A special thermal shielding will be required to protect onboard equipment from the searing heat of our star, while simultaneously enabling sensors to probe the environment. Solar panels would also have to work but not melt, making the whole project a major engineering challenge.

Will it happen? Realizing what a tough nut they would have to crack, planners pushed the mission until after 2025. We say add another five years to that date.

Anatoly Zak is a publisher of RussianSpaceWeb.com and the author of Russia in Space: the Past Explained, the Future Explored.

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