CFP Bubble Watch: Ohio State or Oklahoma?

There are seven teams remaining in College Football Playoff contention. One of those teams has locked up a Playoff bid. Three get in with a win this weekend. The final three are firmly on the bubble, though UCF is almost certainly a step behind Ohio State and Oklahoma. The selection committee will decide between that pair on Tuesday night, and they get one more set of games to confirm that opinion–or to change their minds. How do the resumes stack up? Let’s get to our Bubble Watch to find out.

How this works

Let’s give a quick review of how this works.

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.

Some metrics will overvalue “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There’s no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I’m being very lenient as to who’s considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric, so I’m going to show that to you. It’s a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I won’t count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one –there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Hawaii and Nevada) – -the committee cares about it, so we have to.

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.

Bubble Watch

Playoff Lock

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Notre Dame

1-0

2-0

2-0

5-0

2-0

20-45

5

6.1 (26)

4.4 (9)

This resume is solid, not superb, but five Top 40 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Add in an undefeated season and a good strength of schedule, and you get a Playoff bid. Notre Dame is in.

Controls Own Destiny

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Alabama

0-0

4-0

1-0

5-0

2-0

10-55

7

7.7 (2)

4.2 (3)

It hasn’t been discussed enough because Alabama has been a consensus top team almost all year, but this is a powerful resume. Four ranked wins (the computers absolutely love Missouri), five Top 40 wins, and metrics that would make any coach jealous. Alabama is in with a win, and possibly with a loss as well.

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Clemson

0-0

2-0

3-0

5-0

2-0

25-50

7

7.3 (3)

4.1 (2)

Do you want to see a resume almost as good as Alabama’s? Look no further. The top-end wins aren’t as good, but the overall SOS is better according to most (though that will change after this week). Clemson is in with a win, and possibly with a loss as well–with a little luck.

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Georgia

1-0

2-1

2-0

4-0

2-0

5-30

7

7.2 (4)

4.8 (26)

Like Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame, the Bulldogs have five Top 40 wins. Like all three undefeated teams, the Bulldogs only played two cupcakes this year. This resume is very, very strong. If not for that loss to LSU, Georgia would likely be a Playoff lock regardless of result against Alabama. It is hard to understate just how far ahead everyone in this category is when compared to those on the bubble. Look at the numbers and see for yourself.

On the Bubble

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Oklahoma

0-1

3-0

0-0

5-0

3-0

25-45

3

8.8 (1)

5.8 (90)

Thanks to Army, the Sooners have three ranked wins. The SOS number is also pretty solid. The only thing holding this resume back (when compared to the teams below it) is that defense, which just keeps plummeting in ranking. Will the committee let a defense that bad into the Playoff? Because, assuming Oklahoma, Ohio State, and UCF all win this week, Oklahoma has a clear advantage in just about every other aspect of the resume.

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

Ohio State

1-0

1-0

1-1

4-0

4-0

30-55

3

6.6 (11)

5.6 (64)

The Buckeyes have a Top 10 win. Oklahoma doesn’t have that. Oklahoma does, however, have an extra Top 25 win, a slightly better SOS, one fewer cupcake game, and a more valuable opponent coming up this week. The resumes are close, but Oklahoma’s is clearly superior. The only question is whether that anchor of an Oklahoma defense will drag it below the Buckeyes, even with an otherwise-superior resume.

Team

vs 1-10

vs 11-25

vs 26-40

vs 41-80

vs 81+

SOS Range

Wins over

+.500

Off YPP

(rank)

Def YPP

(rank)

UCF

0-0

1-0

1-0

4-0

5-0

80-95

5

7.0 (5)

5.2 (45)

This resume looked stronger last week than this week. Then again, UCF has more wins over teams with winning records than both Oklahoma and Ohio State. The committee cares about that, for some ridiculous reason. UCF has a powerful offense, and a better defense than its two bubble peers. There is a slight case to be made for UCF over Oklahoma or Ohio State right now, but it’s hard to imagine the Knights getting in the Playoff without both losing this coming week.

About Yesh Ginsburg

Yesh has been a fan and student of college football since before he can remember. He spent years mastering the intricacies of the BCS and now keeps an eye on the national picture as teams jockey for College Football Playoff positioning.

The management services provider for two West Virginia sports books and the state's online betting app is in a dispute with a third-party technology vendor, which means those books won't be able to offer early-round March Madness betting.

"In 2004, CBS was fined $550,000 for airing what has become known as the “Nipple Slip”. In 2019, CBS aired Adam Levine removing his shirt exposing both nipples. This must be dealt with in a similar manner, or the double standard must be made public."

The management services provider for two West Virginia sports books and the state's online betting app is in a dispute with a third-party technology vendor, which means those books won't be able to offer early-round March Madness betting.

"In 2004, CBS was fined $550,000 for airing what has become known as the “Nipple Slip”. In 2019, CBS aired Adam Levine removing his shirt exposing both nipples. This must be dealt with in a similar manner, or the double standard must be made public."