If a pitcher is down at least 1 mph in June relatively to the previous June we shouldn’t expect them to magically recover their velocity in the second half of the season. Part of this, of course, is timing–you don’t have as many pitches left in the season to recover.

And for Burnett, the loss of velocity is showing up in the results and could plague him for the remainder of the season. For example, the weighted on-base average against his fastball is 0.391, close to his wOBA yielded in 2010 when he went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA.

For a pitcher like Burnett, who has just two primary pitches — a fastball and curve — it is even more damaging to lose one of the weapons in your arsenal. He throws the fastball 61.4 percent of the time, mixes in a curve on 32 percent of his pitches and fills in the rest with a change-up, but his fastball is the least effective it has been since 2011.