So, let me think back to last year when we played this last time. We didn't have the sniper and the target, who are basically playing a parallel game to president and bomber. This is.... interesting. There's no need for the president or bomber to card share with anyone else: they just have to meet or avoid their counterpart. Ditto for sniper/target, except the target has to keep secret, and the sniper has to know who the target is, and can get them wherever they are.

The gambler just wants to see the world burn, as long as they aren't surprised by how it gets set on fire.

Here's the setup because it took me an embarrassingly long time to find it in the original thread: President, Bomber, Sniper, Target, Decoy, Gambler

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Madge, from what you remember from last game, what do you recall as for what the strategies were in last game? Were there a lot of high risk high reward successes/fails? In the end I might spend a lot of time reading the other game.

Just to get the mechanics cleared up. Actions we can take are: Offer card share, publicly reveal your card , privately communicate with another player (in the same room), appoint a Leader, pass leadership, and vote for a new leader.

How many hostages are exchanged at the end of each phase? Can the leader send themself as a "hostage"?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

It would then depend on how fun the gambler wants to have. He could potentially try to help out whoever he wanted try to win.

Either president or bomber wins.Either gambler wins or loses.Either sniper wins with target and decoy losing, or sniper and decoy loses with target winning, or sniper loses with decoy and target winning.

Bomber is the hardest role to win as because he has to be in the same room as the president. From what I can tell bomber has the most to gain from being the leader. That makes president the easiest role to win as.

I say gambler has a slightly better than 50/50 chance of winning. This would be my favorite role to be.

One could argue sniper is actually the hardest role. Not only does he have a 1 in 5 guess, but there is essentially a jester subtely subtely dropping clues to the sniper. There are 2 out of 3 scenarios that sniper loses. In mafia, jester is one of the easiest roles to win as, but I dont think it will be quite as easy for decoy since the sniper will only have one shot. The target is likely to win if he is lucky enough to never be in the room with the sniper as the sniper slowly turn by turn crosses out players from his suspect list.

BoomFrog wrote:Just to get the mechanics cleared up. Actions we can take are: Offer card share, publicly reveal your card , privately communicate with another player (in the same room), appoint a Leader, pass leadership, and vote for a new leader.

How many hostages are exchanged at the end of each phase? Can the leader send themself as a "hostage"?

Only one hostage will be exchanged at the end of each round (including the third round). The leader can never be a hostage - if you are leader and want to be a hostage, you must abdicate to someone else and ask them to send you across.

I was gambler last time, but there was a bigger blue and red team - blue and red are basically independents each, so they don't have an ally to help with things. I think this is a very different game.

As gambler I basically wanted to side with one of the factions and help them win, since it made me the most sure about the end result, but I didn't care about screwing over the team I originally sided with if it meant I was going to win.

I like FUN and DARING ESCAPADES in general though. I think as gambler I tried to get the team I wasn't sided with to do something daring and would side with them in exchange. In the end, the winning team I think got lucky with some early card shares and had the whole game sewn up in a neat little bow, told me as much, I bet on them, and I won, but I didn't feel like I did much to make it happen (not that there's anything wrong with that... a win is a wiN!!!)

I think the president has a slightly more than 50% chance of winning assuming no tactics, and the bomber slightly less (as the bomber and president are each in the room with only 2/5 people, so president = 60% chance of not being with the bomber at the start, and bomber = 40% of not being with the president at the start). It's not that easy of course but you know; probably the bomber figuring things out is what gets them up to 50%.

I'm not sure about hostage situations. I'd be curious as to what ends up happening in the other room, of course, but we can learn that from the other guys.

I think unless the gambler wants to side with someone in particular (e.g. "I'm the gambler I will side with the bomber please everyone card share with me" - assuming that gambit works) we're all kind of acting alone, which makes things hard, since we don't have the interest of finding our allies but we do have the interest of avoiding our enemies, card-sharing wise. The gambler is the only person who doesn't care, but fake-claiming gambler is dangerous because if you card share then all of a sudden people know who you really are, and if it's the wrong person then you're screwed.

I was about to go through all the permuatations of who shares cards with whom but it made me realise one thing: if you share with someone who is perpendicular to you (i.e. colour shares with grey), you can ally with them. The pres/bomb can be friends with any one of sniper/target/decoy (and vice versa) and try and help them win, and even double agent them (which... you know, means you can't trust them THAT much).

So card sharing CAN actually help you because you'll know whoever you pick is not your opponent (and if they are your opponent, you can say "hey guys, I'm the X, this guy's the Y, does a sniper/etc want to team up with me, send me to the other room, I'll try and see the target or decoy's card and come back and tell you who they are" - probably won't work).

Anyway... all the above is thinking aloud.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Letting you all know that I will be pretty inactive thr next 36 hours. (America partying and all]. I love that Madhe was thinking the same line as me. Every single role is "safe" to some extent allying with the other 4 players that aren't a part of their win condition, except gambler who could ally with anyone. You could fine tune that info to create a more confined ally list for each role based on which roles benefit from working more with you rather than against you. I don't want to spoil any of this okay you in too much information right now about who I think are the best allies for each role.

Probably decoy. They're basically a jester that has to win NOW, and if the sniper card shares with the target, they have lost and have no chance of digging themselves out of the hole. Target similarly gets screwed over if they card share with the wrong person, but I feel like it's easier to pretend to be (e.g. president) than pretend to be decoy pretending to be president.

Sniper has an easier time than either IMO because if they card share with one of the above (40% chance of happening any randomly selected share), it either really helps them narrow down targets (i.e. ignore decoy) or gives them instawin. However it depends how cagey the decoy/target are being. I would still put the chances of less than 50% though, since targeting at random gives a 20% chance of winning. (Yeah, the sniper won't be targeting at random, but the "random case" is good for intuition)

President/bomber are the next most easy, each having about a 50% chance, higher than decoy/sniper/target.

Finally gambler is the easiest, because once they have enough information they are going to be able to win, aren't committed to anything until the very end of the game, so a last minute betrayal won't hurt them. And I think the playstyle on the forum means that people will try and get the gambler their win if it doesn't hurt them. (I mean, I remember that mafia game where I was the oracle, town tried to delay their win in order to help me also win, which ended up with town losing. And that was a closed setup where they had no way of knowing my role was even actually in the game or just a scum tactic!!)

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Madge wrote:(I mean, I remember that mafia game where I was the oracle, town tried to delay their win in order to help me also win, which ended up with town losing. And that was a closed setup where they had no way of knowing my role was even actually in the game or just a scum tactic!!)

Wow, that is a crazy cocky town to try that.

I agree with your assessment of the roles, so what do we do now?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

I don't know. I feel like one needs to make a leap of faith and share cards to have an ally, but given we can't both be the gambler, one or the other person is making a huge risk that their co-sharer will be something that effectively makes them lose immediately based on luck.

So, I'm gonna throw this out there:

Whisper BoomFrog

Spoiler:

I'm happy to share cards with you. I will claim I am not the gambler, and thus sharing cards with you might result in my doom. I will also state that if you share cards with me, assuming we aren't opponents, I will do everything I can to make you win, and our win conditions won't interfere (red/blue only care about hostage situations, grey only care about who everyone else is).

Then we can control this room and arrange hostages accordingly.

If we're enemies then we're going to have to make the best of it.

I'm whispering this to you because I feel like I can trust you, and I hope you know you can trust me.

If you accept please offer card share.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

I do trust you. And I was actually pretty ready to form an alliance with you until I read this:

I like FUN and DARING ESCAPADES in general though. I think as gambler I tried to get the team I wasn't sided with to do something daring and would side with them in exchange. In the end, the winning team I think got lucky with some early card shares and had the whole game sewn up in a neat little bow, told me as much, I bet on them, and I won, but I didn't feel like I did much to make it happen (not that there's anything wrong with that... a win is a wiN!!!)

So, the question is, if we are on separate teams, what are you going to say to the next guy? Let's say you are the sniper and I'm pres/bomber. You need to convince more people to share with you so you can see who is reluctant and likely to be the target. What will you promise them?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Depending on our roles, we'll work out who the hostage is (maybe we'll send Heuri away so we'll kind of have to work together), work out what our best story to tell others is, etc.

If I'm sniper, I'd probably find out what I could with no sharing, and give a story to someone privately about how I'm the bomber looking for the president and I'll help them out; they're probably not president (you are possibly the president in this hypothetical; and if you're the bomber and the person I target is the president, then I'll be able to tell they're being reluctant to share with me and either try to get that info back to you, or simply ensure that I'm in a different room to you at end of game so the president is drawn to you. This would require me not to share though)

Unfortunately the game is about risk, and without knowing our roles, coming up with plans is kind of a waste.

Another thing we could do is after card sharing, pretend that we're president/bomber, and both of us try to get heuri on side, if that would work to our advantage.

Anyway, to sum up, I'm not going to betray you because that's not going to work well for me in other games in the future. People will know I don't keep promises. The only instance I'll betray you is if I have to choose between your win and my own (which basically means we're both on the same team). If someone offers me a better deal, I'm not going to take it unless there's certainty in it. It might cost me this game but it'll help me get strong alliances in hypothetical future games.

There was a cult game a few years ago where I was town and promised to claim cult if I was ever culted. I didn't get culted in that game (part of my goal iwth the claim TBH) but I was entirely going to stick to it, because if I didn't I'd look mighty suspicious for my entire future life on this forum. As the old joke goes, "you f*** one goat..."

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Still trying to think of a good strategy to follow? Mainly figuring out who to trust. It seems like the greatest chance of winning will come to those that decide to trust the right person. However, if you trust the wrong person it could guarantee your chance of losing. If you trust nobody you are likely to lose.

Just thoughts on Madge. She sure mentions Gambler a lot. Granted that was her role last game,But it wouldn't surprise me ifshe were gsmbler again the way she goes on about. There are two "hider roles" in the game. (3 if you include the decoy pretending to be a "hider") It seems to me that Madge isn't a "hider role". She seems to to more on the lookout. One of the three "hunter" roles. (Gambler hunting for the winner). Also if Madge whispers to me, it might be a good idea for us to share anything she says (that you feel comfortable with sharing) to see if she contradicts herself at all, says two different things

For the record: Heuri's whisper to me says they suspect BoomFrog of being the gambler (and quotes you who the gambler should side with as evidence), and requests that I share anything that BoomFrog says (that I'm comfortable sharing) to check for contradictions.

I assume there's something broadly similar about me in the whisper addressed to BoomFrog.

Heuri, I don't know if I want to get on the path of co-operation with someone who as their very first whisper, whispers me and another person, and in their whisper to me, asks me to sell out the other person if convenient. How would I know you were on my side, rather than selling me out to BoomFrog yourself? And in reporting what BoomFrog whispers to you, how am I to even know you're telling the truth? BoomFrog can't even know if I'm being honest in my first paragraph, assuming you deny it. (If you confirm it, you say that I'm being honest, which helps me look good to BoomFrog, which is probably not in your best interest, since all three of us being on the same team is very unlikely).

Question: if both me and BoomFrog want to do what you ask, how would you pick which of us to side with?

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

Haha burn. I had a very specific reasoning behind the messages I sent to both you and Boomfrog. Nothing to do with "selling out". Depending on what Boomfrog responds back I'll see if I share that info.

Yes, I did send a similar message to Madge as I did to you, about how you could potentially be the gambler and how we should message each what the other person says to see if they contradict themselves (not that i was trying to sell someone out, but whatever).What I added in your message that was not in Madge's was my thoughts on "hiders" and "hunters" and about her potentially being a hunter. Confirm if you like that I sent the same message to you as I did Madge, but I would prefer you didn't mention the other part to her. I have no hopes of using Madge as an ally in here. You may be my only hope.

Basically the only situation I see that happening is if me and BoomFrog are on opposite sides, in which case we'll both be competing for your support, and given BoomFrog hasn't rebuffed you like I have, I'd probably lose that fight.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

I do trust you but the risk is too high to share with anyone right now. Let's say, we agree to be allies without sharing. I'm not the gambler (obviously) so if we can be allies, one of us needs info and the other needs help with controlling rooms. I'll gather more info as I can and we'll meet up on a later day and maybe I'll be confident enough to share then. If we are indeed not opposing then we'll cooperate for the win. I think we should split up to gather more info. I don't really want to stay with Heuristically_Alone, but one of us has to. I'll let you choose which of us leaves. Sounds good?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Yes, I did send a similar message to Madge as I did to you, about how you could potentially be the gambler and how we should message each what the other person says to see if they contradict themselves (not that i was trying to sell someone out, but whatever).What I added in your message that was not in Madge's was my thoughts on "hiders" and "hunters" and about her potentially being a hunter. Confirm if you like that I sent the same message to you as I did Madge, but I would prefer you didn't mention the other part to her. I have no hopes of using Madge as an ally in here. You may be my only hope.

Whisper heuristically_alone

Spoiler:

I'm confused by your hiders/hunters breakdown. In the pres/bomber situation who is the hider and why?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

I do trust you but the risk is too high to share with anyone right now. Let's say, we agree to be allies without sharing. I'm not the gambler (obviously) so if we can be allies, one of us needs info and the other needs help with controlling rooms. I'll gather more info as I can and we'll meet up on a later day and maybe I'll be confident enough to share then. If we are indeed not opposing then we'll cooperate for the win. I think we should split up to gather more info. I don't really want to stay with Heuristically_Alone, but one of us has to. I'll let you choose which of us leaves. Sounds good?

Whisper Boomfrog

Spoiler:

I kind of wanted to go into this game with some certainty. I won't promise you the undying loyalty you'd get from me if we shared now, but I'll promise you I'll do my best until it interferes with my interests even a little. Hopefully we can regroup because I very much want to work with you.

Send me away, I want to see what's happening somewhere else. If you end up working with Heuri I won't begrudge you, though if you find out Heuri is on the opposite side from you, then we're probably on compatible sides and can work this out.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

I kind of wanted to go into this game with some certainty. I won't promise you the undying loyalty you'd get from me if we shared now, but I'll promise you I'll do my best until it interferes with my interests even a little. Hopefully we can regroup because I very much want to work with you.

Send me away, I want to see what's happening somewhere else. If you end up working with Heuri I won't begrudge you, though if you find out Heuri is on the opposite side from you, then we're probably on compatible sides and can work this out.

Whisper Madge

Spoiler:

Alright, that confirms my suspicions. I'm going to share with you and hard ally with you. But I'm going to share with heuristic first so I can get more info.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

I'm OK with that in theory, but I know you can trust me, but at this point I don't know I can trust you. What are you and Heuri talking about?

I don't want to be taken advantage of, and offering my unwavering allegiance is extremely risky if I can't trust you. I'd like to trust you, but you card sharing with Heuri... it's scary. Especially because Heuri asked me to turn on you.

If you and Heuri have compatible win conditions, what are you going to do? It's not in your interest to risk me finding out your role, I don't think.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

If I'm Sniper and Heuri's Blue/red I still want to share with you. If you are the other Blue/Red I'll side with you over Heuri since you were more honest with me. If I'm sniper and Heuri finds the target and tells me, and I believe him I'll help him but otherwise I'll help you. Even then, I don't see how I could believe him and wouldn't find out until too late, so I'm pretty sure I'd side with you under all circumstances.

If I'm blue/red and Heuir is grey, I'll still share with you. If you are another grey, I'll give you info if you are sniper or lie to Heuri if he is the sniper and you are the target/decoy), again because I like your honest approach at the start.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos