In the November 7, 2006 general election, this race ordinarily
would have been considered a safe Republican seat, since Pombo won
reelection in 2004 by a comfortable 61% to 39% margin, and faced
the same opponent in 2006. However, due to a contentious primary, a
nationwide movement to oust Republicans, and strong organization by
the McNerney campaign, the race became increasingly competitive
over the course of the campaign season. In early October,
CQPolitics.com changed their rating of this race from
Republican Favored to Leans Republican.[2]

McCloskey attacked Pombo on the Iraq war as well as Pombo's
ethics and longstanding reputation as an anti-environmentalist.
Critics of Pombo noted that as chair of the House Resources
Committee, "Pombo has been an advocate of easing land-use
regulations throughout his House career, and is spearheading
efforts to scale back the Endangered Species Act (which
McCloskey helped author in 1973)."[3] A third
candidate joined the race, businessman Thomas A. Benigno, who had
run against Pombo and received 13 percent of the vote in the 2002
Republican primary. In 2006, Pombo's winning percentage was quite
low for an incumbent:

Democratic

There were three Democratic challengers running for the
Democratic nomination: Steve Filson, a Navy veteran and former
airline pilot; Gerald M. "Jerry" McNerney, a wind
turbine company CEO who won 39 percent of the general election vote
against Pombo in 2004, as the Democratic nominee; and Steve Thomas,
an electrician and anti-war activist. Party insiders were split,
with McNerney endorsed by the California Democratic Party and
Filson backed by the national Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee.[4]

General
campaign

As of June 30, 2006, Pombo had raised $2.2 million for his
reelection campaign and had $939,000 on hand. McNerney had raised
$449,000 and had $152,000 in cash as of that date.[5] Even
though Pombo generally votes against pro-labor legislation[6], Unite
Here, representing 90,000 workers in the gaming industry, and
the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, an AFL-CIO
affiliate, each donated $10,000 to Pombo's 2006 campaign.[7] Pombo
had a 4:1 advantage in terms of "cash-on-hand."[8]
McNerney was helped by the presence of many environmental 501c4
organizations working to defeat Pombo, including Defenders of
Wildlife Action Fund, Sierra Club, League of Conservation voters,
and Clean Water Action.

In September, the Swing State Project reported "The NRCC
wouldn't drop over a quarter of a million dollars on this seat if
McNerney wasn't threatening Pombo in their internal polls".[8]

Signalling the closeness of the race, both candidates received
late-season campaign support from national political figures. In
early November, former President Bill Clinton stumped for McNerney;
President George
W. Bush and First Lady Laura Bush both campaigned for Pombo in the
last month before the election.[11]

Polls and
ratings

In September, the Rothenberg Political report changed its
evaluation of the race from "Republican safe" to "Republican
favored".[12] On
October 3, 2006 a poll commissioned by Defenders of Wildlife Action
Fund was released that showed McNerney leading Pombo 48 percent to
46 percent.[13]
It is known that two polls were commissioned by the NRCC, but
results were not released. In early October,
CQPolitics.com changed their rating of this race from
Republican Favored to Leans Republican.[14] In
late October, the Cook Political Report rated
it "toss up".[15]

Results

The Democratic nominee, Jerry McNerney,
in the general election, again faced incumbent
Pombo. This election was held on November 7, 2006, and
McNerney won 53% to 47% percent. While Pombo narrowly defeated
McNerney in heavily Republican San Joaquin
County, which makes up a majority of the district's population;
McNerney defeated Pombo in the other three counties by wide
margins, more than making up for his loss in San Joaquin.