Game of Thrones Betting: Updated Odds For the Iron Throne

Game of Throne Season 7 returned on Sunday, July 16th, and with it came no shift on the Iron Throne. Cersei Lannister assumed control of King’s Landing at the end of season 6 and while we started to see several storylines set the tone for a shortened season and the final two seasons of the entire series, Queen Cersei still rules the seven kingdoms.

The writing certainly does appear to be on the wall that Cersei’s newfound strength won’t last. Brother Jamie Lannister returned home to learn of death and destruction, and also tried to warn his sister that the Lannister’s have never been short on enemies and as they stand, that list has never been longer.

Needless to say, it’s pretty likely Cersei doesn’t make it through all of season 7 as the sole possessor of the Iron Throne. Something will need to go down to take her out of her current position (she’ll probably need to die), but at this point, it’s what makes the most sense.

The big question, of course, is what will lead to Cersei’s demise and ultimate removal from the Iron Throne, and who will replace her?

Game of Thrones Season 7 Odds – Who Will Sit on the Iron Throne?

While it’s a huge question that could take the entire 7 episodes of season 7, the odds are decent that Cersei isn’t long for the Iron Throne and we need to start thinking about all possible outs. The latest Game of Thrones odds at Bovada opens the door to a litany of interesting options – as well as a lot of interesting value. Here are the latest odds:

Cersei Lannister (-200)

Daenerys Targaryen (+200)

Jon Snow (+450)

Petyr Baelish (+1500)

Tyrion Lannister (+1500)

Gendry (+1500)

Bran or Benjen Stark (+2000)

The Night King (+2000)

Arya Stark (+2000)

Sansa Stark (+2000)

Euron Greyjoy (+2000)

Jamie Lannister (+2200)

Theon Greyjoy (+5000)

Davos Seaworth (+6600)

Varys (+6600)

Yara Greyjoy (+6600)

Samwell Tarly (+10000)

Jorah Mormont (+10000)

Lyanna Mormont (+10000)

Qyburn (+15000)

Ellaria Sand (+20000)

Sandor or Gregor Clegane (+20000)

Brienne of Tarth (+20000)

Tormund Giantsbane (+25000)

Olenna Tyrell (+25000)

Missandei (+25000)

Melisandre (+30000)

Jaqen H’ghar (+30000)

Grey Worm (+30000)

Bronn of Blackwater (+30000)

Podrick Payne (+30000)

Daario Naharis (+30000)

Gilly (+30000)

Meera Reed (+30000)

To be frank, a lot of these long shot bets are a flat out waste of time. Yes, the odds provide serious upside, but that only exists if there is actual logic attached to the bet. That really isn’t the case with Grey Worm, Gilly, and so many others.

There are certainly some obvious favorites here, though, and there are some interesting sleepers, too. Let’s break both down as we try to come close to a final prediction for the end of Game of Thrones season 7.

Main Threats

Cersei Lannister leads the way as the top favorite, seeing as she flexed her evil muscle to end season 6 and looks to be as ruthless as ever. Her kids are all dead and she does have some power right now, so with literally nothing to lose, it’s not at all crazy to imagine her getting the best of her enemies for at least one more season.

We don’t get any value betting on Cersei, though, and there are plenty of other viable threats. The obvious ones are Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow. Snow is already the King of the North and is viewed as a leader by all of his followers, especially considering he’s come back from the dead. Snow taking the throne would make good sense, but the fact that he views the White Walkers as a far fish to fry as opposed to ruling, makes him less of a threat.

The next most logical choice is Daenerys Targaryen, who finally made it back to Dragonstone and is ready to “get started”. That will set her on the natural path of going back to King’s Landing to reclaim the throne that is rightfully hers. Not a whole lot is standing in her way, but she would have to overthrow Cersei to make it happen and it’s worth wondering if A) she’s killed before she can do it B) someone else gets it first or C) the show wishes to delay her eventual place on the Iron Throne.

Vegas likes these options the best, and if we’re resting on logic and the course of the show to this point, the top three candidates based on the latest odds really do make the most sense. Not much has shifted us from our former opinion on Daenerys Targaryen taking over the throne, either, so we see little reason to move away from that stance now.

That being said, there are some other lingering favorites we need to either consider or finally write off. Petyr Baelish has the next best odds at +1500 and while he longs for both Sansa Stark and the Iron Throne, I’m not seeing a clear path for him to accomplish this. Sansa admitted in episode one of season 7 that she “knows exactly” what Littlefinger wants, and that he’s only around so long as he’s useful.

When taking a look at the Game of Thrones death odds, I suggested Baelish could be the first big name to go, and I’m not really set to waver from it. Of course, the Starks will need to find a way to steal his army before getting rid of him. Regardless of whether or not he dies, I don’t see him getting both of the things he desires the most, although it would be extremely interesting to see it play out that way.

Other viable contenders for the Iron Throne in season 7 are Tyrion Lannister (+1500), Gendry (+1500), Euron Greyjoy (+2000) and Sansa Stark (+2000). I’m not buying anyone else in this range of odds, and even these candidates are tough to buy.

Tyrion is one of three remaining Lannister’s and he could find his way back into power if Cersei and Jamie were knocked aside, but that would require several other moves breaking his way – namely Khaleesi also being killed off. He’s a great character and it’d be fun to see him finally get his day in the sun, but I just don’t see it happening.

Gendry has a path to the throne by name, but he’s still a bastard son of the former king and royalty has already exchanged too many hands. There are bigger threats in the running, too, and he’s probably more worried about simply surviving these days. He’s not a crazy bet at +1500, but I’m not too excited about his prospects. If the odds grow a bit longer, we can consider pouncing here.

The two that actually make a lot of sense are Euron and Sansa. Euron already came to Cersei and admitted he wants to wed the “most beautiful” woman in the realm and it’s no secret he also wants to rule. It doesn’t sound like Cersei is that interested in his proposal, but he would give her a fleet over the seas and she craves more power. Not only would accepting his proposal put him one step closer to the throne, but once he is made her king he could easily back stab her and take over King’s Landing by himself.

Euron looks like the new evil guy we’ll love to hate, but it’s unsure how long he’ll actually last. In fact, even if he does temporarily get close to the throne, what’s to stop Cersei from seeing his deceit coming from a mile away? Even if she doesn’t see it coming, perhaps Jamie kills him out of revenge before the season ends. Euron Greyjoy is a fun bet with these odds, but actually lasting the entire season as the one on the Iron Throne seems like a mild stretch.

Sansa Stark is the true dark horse here. Arya Stark is going back to King’s Landing for one purpose; to kill Cersei. Maybe she accomplishes that, maybe she doesn’t. But one way or another, Cersei is probably going to meet her end this year and someone else will take her place on the Iron Throne. That could initially be Jon Snow, but once he actually sets out for the “real” battle with The Night King, he’ll have to leave someone in his stead to rule. Sansa has shown herself to be a level-headed person and she’s learned a lot about how to rule and how not to rule.

If we’re looking for a sleeper amongst the favorites, I like Sansa and Euron a great deal and would bet on Sansa first, with the caveat being that she’s really just a placeholder until major changes come in season 8.

Deep Sleepers

You could call Euron, Sansa and some of the others sleeper candidates to rule the Iron Throne, but their odds and the logic makes them more like fringe favorites than actual sleepers. True sleepers exist here and they might be Yara Greyjoy (+6600) or Theon Greyjoy (+5000).

There is a lot of suggested value in this long list of odds, but this is probably where I’m stopping. The other options would need an insane amount of things to break just right and just wouldn’t make much sense. Gilly at +30000 is a complete waste of our time and that would just be silly and also enrage fans. The same goes for a lot of the other options.

If we want a deep sleeper, though, we can look no further than the Greyjoy family, especially since there could be a direct path to the Iron Throne and we’re getting fun odds here. After all, if we’re to believe Euron Greyjoy is a viable threat (and he is), why not also throw his niece and nephew (who he wants to kill) into play?
Theon is barely a person and not fit to rule at the moment, but he’s also gradually coming back to life. I think at some point we see him and his sister meet up with Euron and only one of them survives. Maybe that’s Euron and he goes back to Cersei, marries her and/or just flat out kills her and takes the throne. From there, his niece and nephew could take him out and overtake the throne, or maybe one of them finds a way to do that before he kills them.

The point is there is unfinished business within this family and the way that it’s played out to this point suggests it kind of matters. Maybe in the grand scheme of things, it’s pointless, but it would certainly be ironic and a full circle happening for Theon Greyjoy to end up on the Iron Throne. His sister Yara is far better equipped to handle such a gig, though, and she actually has more playability from a betting perspective.

Who Will Rule the Iron Throne?

This feels like a loaded question because I think it’s entirely possible – if not likely – that more than one person will occupy the Iron Throne by the time Game of Thrones season 7 wraps up, and whoever gets there might not keep their new job by the time the series is over.

We’re only asking ourselves who will be on the Iron Throne when season 7 is over, though. Considering Cersei is the one there right now and she has so much working against her, I think she’s out. Add in the lack of betting value, and I’m not wasting my money and time on her.

The obvious favorites – Snow and Targaryen – deserve most of our attention and considering how much time has been dedicated to Daenerys in this show, it’d be silly to not at least have her rule the 7 kingdoms for a little while – even if it’s just too close out the seventh season.

Snow is a viable bet and I’m very interested in playable favorites like Euron and Sansa, as well. However, Daenerys Targaryen was our favorite pick before episode one dropped in and the way that episode ended (with Targaryen returning to Dragonstone and preparing to plan her next move) could very well be setting up a similar ending at the end of the season, where she makes it to King’s Landing and takes back the Iron Throne.

I think that is what happens, based on everything we’ve seen to this point, while season 8 will be more devoted to a greater war against The Night King and his dead army. The beauty here is Daenerys actually provides some value at +200. The second those odds dip sharply, I might start looking for a few sleepers I really believe in, but the trajectory favors her at the moment. I’d toss in some flier bets on the other candidates we’ve touched on, but most of my money would be with the Mother of Dragons.