Hawaii Weather TodayDaily updated weather narrative/forecasts for all the Hawaiian Islands. Prepared by Glenn James, who lives on Maui. Coverage includes Surf, Windsurf, Kiteboarding, Beaches, Snorkeling and Diving.2016-12-10T02:48:55Zhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/feed/atom/WordPressGlennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=874212016-12-10T02:48:55Z2016-12-09T15:38:00ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday along with the low temperatures Friday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Low pressure to our west…continues to draw wet weather over the state

A conveyor belt of moisture from the deeper tropics…remains in place over us

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain quite light through the weekend…into the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a high pressure system far east-northeast. At the same time, we have a weak low pressure system with its associated cold front/trough to our north. As a result, winds will remain light, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…followed by offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. Meanwhile, the breezes over the open ocean are coming up from the southeast, bringing volcanic haze over the smaller islands at times locally.

Low pressure just west of the state will keep spotty showers over us…in an off and on fashion through the weekend.These showers will be hit and miss in nature, while our skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout. As we get into the later part of the weekend into the middle of the new week, we should see a period of improving conditions, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. The models continue to hint that the low pressure system will approach the state, setting up a Kona Low…with increasing showers Thursday and Friday.

Marine environment details: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend…on into the middle of the new week.

There will be a series of small north and northwest swells through the weekend. A slightly larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Sunday night, peak late Monday and Monday night, then gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels.

A short period north-northeast swell will arrive Tuesday and linger through Thursday…which may produce advisory level surf along the east facing shores.

Friday Evening Film: This new film just came out, and I hadn’t heard of it…nor seen a trailer for it before now. It’s called Miss Sloane, and it looks quite good, especially with several actors that I enjoy seeing. It stars Jessica Chastain, Mark Strong, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Sam Waterston, John Lithgow, Grace Lynn Kung, and Jake Lacy…among many others. The synopsis: In the high-stakes world of political power-brokers, Elizabeth Sloane (Jessica Chastain) is the most sought after and formidable lobbyist in D.C. Known equally for her cunning and her track record of success, she has always done whatever is required to win. But when she takes on the most powerful opponent of her career, she finds that winning may come at too high a price. / I’ll be seeing this film with my friends Jeff and Cindy, and I’ll let you know what we thought afterwards. Here’s the trailer for this mystery and suspense thriller.

Interesting: Sea ice hit record lows in November – Unusually high air temperatures and a warm ocean have led to a record low Arctic sea ice extent for November, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice extent also hit a record low for the month, caused by moderately warm temperatures and a rapid shift in circumpolar winds.

“It looks like a triple whammy—a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged 3.51 million square miles for November, 753,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Although the rate of Arctic ice growth was slightly faster than average, total extent actually decreased for a brief period in the middle of the month. The decrease in extent measured 19,300 square miles, and was observed mostly in the Barents Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean north of Norway, Finland, and Eastern Russia.

NSIDC scientists said the decrease in extent is almost unprecedented for November in the satellite record; a less pronounced and brief retreat of 5,400 square miles happened in 2013. November 2016 is now the seventh month this year to have hit a record low extent in the 38-year satellite monitoring period. The November extent was 3.2 standard deviations below the long-term average, a larger departure than observed in September 2012 when the Arctic summer minimum extent hit a record low.

Arctic sea ice is still in the early stages of winter freeze-up and is expected to continue expanding until it hits its maximum extent around March next year.

NSIDC scientists said unusually high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean, persistent winds from the south, and a warm ocean worked together to drive the record low Arctic extent. Extending from northeast of Greenland towards Svalbard and Severnaya Zemlya, air temperatures at about 2,500 feet above sea level were up to 18 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Kara Seas remained unusually high, up to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average around Novaya Zemlya and Svalbard, preventing ice formation. These high temperatures reflected a pattern of winds from the south, which also helped to push the ice northward and reduce the ice extent.

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve was in Svalbard during November and noted the lack of sea ice. “Typically sea ice begins to form in the fjords at the beginning of November, but this year there was no ice to be found,” she said.

In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice surrounding the continent of Antarctica declined very quickly early in the month and set a record low. The average extent for November was 5.61 million square miles, 699,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 average. This was more than twice the previous record departure from average set in November 1986 and was 5.7 standard deviations below the long-term average.

NSIDC scientists said that higher-than-average temperatures and a rapid shift in Antarctic circumpolar winds appear to have caused the rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice.

Air temperatures 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average, and an earlier pattern of strong westerly winds worked to create a more dispersed sea ice pack in the Antarctic. A rapid shift to a more varied wind structure, with three major areas of winds from the north, rapidly compressed low-concentration sea ice around Wilkes Land, Dronning Maud Land, Enderby Land, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Moreover, several very large polynyas (areas of open water within the pack) have opened in the eastern Weddell and along the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea coast.

“Antarctic sea ice really went down the rabbit hole this time,” said NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos. “There are a few things we can say about what happened, but we need to look deeper.”

NASA scientist and NSIDC affiliate scientist Walt Meier said, “The Arctic has typically been where the most interest lies, but this month, the Antarctic has flipped the script and it is southern sea ice that is surprising us.”

]]>1Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=874112016-12-09T15:21:41Z2016-12-08T15:23:46ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday along with the low temperatures Thursday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Low pressure to our west…is drawing wet weather up from the southwest

An extensive plume of moisture from the deeper tropics…continues spilling over us

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light…through the rest of the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far east, and north-northwest. At the same time, we have low pressure systems with associated cold fronts just to our north. The winds remain on the light side, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…followed by offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. Our more widespread breezes are coming up from the southwest to southeast, bringing volcanic haze over the smaller islands locally. By the way, the winds may become locally strong and gusty where thunderstorms pop up here and there.

Low pressure west of the state, will bring wet weather back to us…in an off and on fashion into the weekend.This batch of showers will be hit and miss in nature, although it will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout. As we get into the later part of the upcoming weekend, we’ll likely see the arrival of a cold front into early next week. This frontal boundary will probably bring us another round of showers then. There’s a chance that we may see a brief period of improving conditions thereafter…before the next cold front approaches the state next Thursday and Friday.

Marine environment details: The current northwest swell will slowly decline today, and no other significant swells are expected through the weekend. A moderate north swell is possible early next week.

Winds will remain on the lighter side, and with no major swell expected, small craft advisory conditions are not expected for the coastal waters through the next few days. Although, thunderstorms may bring hazardous conditions with gusty winds and lightning at times.

Interesting: Sea ice hit record lows in November – Unusually high air temperatures and a warm ocean have led to a record low Arctic sea ice extent for November, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice extent also hit a record low for the month, caused by moderately warm temperatures and a rapid shift in circumpolar winds.

“It looks like a triple whammy—a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged 3.51 million square miles for November, 753,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Although the rate of Arctic ice growth was slightly faster than average, total extent actually decreased for a brief period in the middle of the month. The decrease in extent measured 19,300 square miles, and was observed mostly in the Barents Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean north of Norway, Finland, and Eastern Russia.

NSIDC scientists said the decrease in extent is almost unprecedented for November in the satellite record; a less pronounced and brief retreat of 5,400 square miles happened in 2013. November 2016 is now the seventh month this year to have hit a record low extent in the 38-year satellite monitoring period. The November extent was 3.2 standard deviations below the long-term average, a larger departure than observed in September 2012 when the Arctic summer minimum extent hit a record low.

Arctic sea ice is still in the early stages of winter freeze-up and is expected to continue expanding until it hits its maximum extent around March next year.

NSIDC scientists said unusually high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean, persistent winds from the south, and a warm ocean worked together to drive the record low Arctic extent. Extending from northeast of Greenland towards Svalbard and Severnaya Zemlya, air temperatures at about 2,500 feet above sea level were up to 18 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Kara Seas remained unusually high, up to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average around Novaya Zemlya and Svalbard, preventing ice formation. These high temperatures reflected a pattern of winds from the south, which also helped to push the ice northward and reduce the ice extent.

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve was in Svalbard during November and noted the lack of sea ice. “Typically sea ice begins to form in the fjords at the beginning of November, but this year there was no ice to be found,” she said.

In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice surrounding the continent of Antarctica declined very quickly early in the month and set a record low. The average extent for November was 5.61 million square miles, 699,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 average. This was more than twice the previous record departure from average set in November 1986 and was 5.7 standard deviations below the long-term average.

NSIDC scientists said that higher-than-average temperatures and a rapid shift in Antarctic circumpolar winds appear to have caused the rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice.

Air temperatures 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average, and an earlier pattern of strong westerly winds worked to create a more dispersed sea ice pack in the Antarctic. A rapid shift to a more varied wind structure, with three major areas of winds from the north, rapidly compressed low-concentration sea ice around Wilkes Land, Dronning Maud Land, Enderby Land, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Moreover, several very large polynyas (areas of open water within the pack) have opened in the eastern Weddell and along the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea coast.

“Antarctic sea ice really went down the rabbit hole this time,” said NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos. “There are a few things we can say about what happened, but we need to look deeper.”

NASA scientist and NSIDC affiliate scientist Walt Meier said, “The Arctic has typically been where the most interest lies, but this month, the Antarctic has flipped the script and it is southern sea ice that is surprising us.”

]]>2Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=874012016-12-08T15:13:52Z2016-12-07T15:31:59ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Low pressure to our west…is drawing heavy weather over us from the southwest

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light…through the rest of the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far northeast, northwest, and another much weaker high pressure cell near Kauai. The winds remain on the light side, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…followed by offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. By the way, as the breeze becomes southeast, we’ll see volcanic haze over us again…which is already happening now! I would imagine we’ll have a couple of days over very voggy weather coming up, at least in some areas.

A trough of low pressure west of the state, will bring back wet weather…in an off and on fashion into the weekend.The next episode of wet weather will arrive at times today into the weekend. This next batch of showers will be hit and miss in nature, although it will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout. As we get into the later part of the weekend, we’ll likely see the arrival of a cold front into early next week. There’s a decent chance that we’ll finally see improving conditions by next Tuesday, although not sure how long they will hang around thereafter.

Marine environment details: Light winds will prevail through at least the weekend. A weak surface ridge north of Kauai will shift over the islands on Thursday, causing the weak easterly winds to shift southeast and south. Northerly winds are expected to develop over the western portion of the island chain on Sunday and Monday…in the wake of a cold front.

A northwest swell will peak this afternoon and evening, producing surf below advisory levels on north and west facing shores. After this swell declines on Thursday, very small surf will prevail on all shores into early next week.

Interesting: When Permafrost Melts, What Happens to All That Stored Carbon? – The Arctic’s frozen ground contains large stores of organic carbon that have been locked in the permafrost for thousands of years. As global temperatures rise, that permafrost is starting to melt, raising concerns about the impact on the climate as organic carbon becomes exposed. A new study is shedding light on what that could mean for the future by providing the first direct physical evidence of a massive release of carbon from permafrost during a warming spike at the end of the last ice age.

The study, published this week in the journal Nature Communications, documents how Siberian soil once locked in permafrost was carried into the Arctic Ocean during that period at a rate about seven times higher than today.

“We know the Arctic today is under threat because of growing climate warming, but we don’t know to what extent permafrost will respond to this warming. The Arctic carbon reservoir locked in the Siberian permafrost has the potential to lead to massive emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere,” said study co-author Francesco Muschitiello, a post-doctoral research fellow at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

To understand how melting permafrost influenced the carbon cycle in the past, the scientists examined the carbon levels in sediment that accumulated on the seafloor near the mouth of the Lena River about 11,650 years ago, when the last glacial period was ending and temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere spiked by several degrees.

Evidence from ice cores suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide rose from about 190 parts per million to about 270 ppm during this period. What remains unclear is how much of that increase can be attributed to greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere as the permafrost melted and its once-frozen plant material thawed and decayed.

The new study looks at a parallel process, estimating the change in the amount of carbon released from permafrost by examining the amount of organic carbon that was washed from destabilized permafrost into the Lena River and out toward the Arctic Ocean. When permafrost starts to melt, its top “active layer” deepens and the soil loosens, allowing water to flow through it more easily, releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and washing away stored carbon from long-dead plants and animals.

“The results indicate severe deepening of the active-layer permafrost in the watershed and release of previously frozen-lock soil carbon, which also implies enhanced microbial respiration of CO2 with important implications for carbon-climate feedback during climate warming,” said lead author Tommaso Tesi, a researcher at the Italian National Research Council. Oceans also release CO2 from organic carbon.

The Lena River has the second-largest drainage basin in the Arctic region, with about 2.5 million square kilometers of land draining into it. Water runoff in the basin washes soil and its organic materials into the river, which carries it downstream to the Laptev Sea on the Arctic Ocean, where some of it settles to the seafloor and is buried by new sediment washing in. By drilling a core through the sediment layers and analyzing the layers’ chemistry, scientists could extract a picture of changes in river-borne soil—including its carbon content—over thousands of years.

The scientists used molecular compounds, including lignin phenols that are specific to land-based plants and a waxy polymer derived from plant cuticles, to fingerprint specific sources of organic carbon in the sediment core.

“The climate warming during the last deglacial period offers an extraordinary benchmark against which the stability of permafrost carbon can be evaluated,” Tesi said. “Therefore, this study can also provide insights to assess the vulnerability of high-latitude soils in response to future climate changes and understand the expected feedback from permafrost soils.”

Today’s Arctic warming is already affecting the chemistry of freshwater rivers in Alaska, recent research suggests. An unrelated study published last month in Geophysical Research Letters tracked the chemistry of the Yukon River over 30 years and found significant increases in calcium, magnesium and sulfate, likely from runoff of water that had flowed through newly thawed soil and weathered newly accessible rock.

]]>0Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873912016-12-07T15:20:30Z2016-12-06T15:53:22ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Troughs of low pressure in our area…are keeping our local weather at least somewhat unsettled for the time being at least

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light…through the rest of the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far northeast, north, and now another much weaker high pressure cell almost right over our islands. The winds remain on the light side, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…along with offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. As we get deeper into the week, our winds will shift to the southeast, potentially bringing back volcanic haze to the smaller islands.

A trough of low pressure west of the state...will bring back wet weather later this week.For the time being, we’ll find generally pretty good weather, although with clouds and showers increasing during the afternoon hours. These showers will occur most often over the interior sections, leaving the surrounding beaches less cloudy and showery for the most part. The next bout of more widespread wet weather will likely arrive Thursday into the weekend.

Marine environment details: A weak surface trough of low pressure over the nearby waters will continue to impact the local area through midweek. A weak ridge of high pressure will build west over the area later in the week, as the trough lifts north and away from the waters. This pattern will result in a weak pressure gradient over the state, and a continuation of light winds each day over much of the region.

A new west-northwest swell, associated with a recent storm over the northwest Pacific, is forecast to fill in Tuesday night, peak Wednesday, then slowly lower through the remainder of the week. Surf heights will remain well below advisory levels from this source…along north and west facing shores.

A small lingering easterly swell, that was generated last week due to the strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands, will continue to steadily lower through the week. Surf along eastern facing shores will respond and likely drop to near flat levels by the weekend.

Surf along the southern shores rose yesterday at select spots, due to a recent Southern Hemisphere source. This will likely hold today, before lowering through the remainder of the week. Guidance supports a smaller southwest swell filling in Sunday night through next Tuesday.

For the long range, despite the differences between model guidance, all depict a sizable west-northwest swell approaching the state by the end of next week.

Interesting: Extreme downpours could increase fivefold across parts of the U.S. – At century’s end, the number of summertime storms that produce extreme downpours could increase by more than 400 percent across parts of the United States — including sections of the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, and the Southwest — according to a new study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, also finds that the intensity of individual extreme rainfall events could increase by as much as 70 percent in some areas. That would mean that a storm that drops about 2 inches of rainfall today would be likely to drop nearly 3.5 inches in the future.

“These are huge increases,” said NCAR scientist Andreas Prein, lead author of the study. “Imagine the most intense thunderstorm you typically experience in a single season. Our study finds that, in the future, parts of the U.S. could expect to experience five of those storms in a season, each with an intensity as strong or stronger than current storms.”

“Extreme precipitation events affect our infrastructure through flooding, landslides and debris flows,” said Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF’s Directorate for Geosciences, which funded the research. “We need to better understand how these extreme events are changing. By supporting this research, NSF is working to foster a safer environment for all of us.”

A year of supercomputing time

An increase in extreme precipitation is one of the expected impacts of climate change because scientists know that as the atmosphere warms, it can hold more water, and a wetter atmosphere can produce heavier rain. In fact, an increase in precipitation intensity has already been measured across all regions of the U.S. However, climate models are generally not able to simulate these downpours because of their coarse resolution, which has made it difficult for researchers to assess future changes in storm frequency and intensity.

For the new study, the research team used a new dataset that was created when NCAR scientists and study co-authors Roy Rasmussen, Changhai Liu, and Kyoko Ikeda ran the NCAR-based Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a resolution of 4 kilometers, fine enough to simulate individual storms. The simulations, which required a year to run, were performed on the Yellowstone system at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.

Prein and his co-authors used the new dataset to investigate changes in downpours over North America in detail. The researchers looked at how storms that occurred between 2000 and 2013 might change if they occurred instead in a climate that was 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer — the temperature increase expected by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

Prein cautioned that this approach is a simplified way of comparing present and future climate. It doesn’t reflect possible changes to storm tracks or weather systems associated with climate change. The advantage, however, is that scientists can more easily isolate the impact of additional heat and associated moisture on future storm formation.

“The ability to simulate realistic downpours is a quantum leap in climate modeling. This enables us to investigate changes in hourly rainfall extremes that are related to flash flooding for the very first time,” Prein said. “To do this took a tremendous amount of computational resources.”

Impacts vary across the U.S.

The study found that the number of summertime storms producing extreme precipitation is expected to increase across the entire country, though the amount varies by region. The Midwest, for example, sees an increase of zero to about 100 percent across swaths of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa. But the Gulf Coast, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Mexico all see increases ranging from 200 percent to more than 400 percent.

The study also found that the intensity of extreme rainfall events in the summer could increase across nearly the entire country, with some regions, including the Northeast and parts of the Southwest, seeing particularly large increases, in some cases of more than 70 percent.

A surprising result of the study is that extreme downpours will also increase in areas that are getting drier on average, especially in the Midwest. This is because moderate rainfall events that are the major source of moisture in this region during the summertime are expected to decrease significantly while extreme events increase in frequency and intensity. This shift from moderate to intense rainfall increases the potential for flash floods and mudslides, and can have negative impacts on agriculture.

The study also investigated how the environmental conditions that produce the most severe downpours might change in the future. In today’s climate, the storms with the highest hourly rainfall intensities form when the daily average temperature is somewhere between 68 to 77 degrees F and with high atmospheric moisture. When the temperature gets too hot, rainstorms become weaker or don’t occur at all because the increase in atmospheric moisture cannot keep pace with the increase in temperature. This relative drying of the air robs the atmosphere of one of the essential ingredients needed to form a storm.

“Understanding how climate change may affect the environments that produce the most intense storms is essential because of the significant impacts that these kinds of storms have on society,” Prein said.

]]>3Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873812016-12-06T15:16:56Z2016-12-05T15:38:01ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday along with the low temperatures Monday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

A slow improvement is on tap over the next few days

A trough of low pressure remains near Kauai…although its influence is gradually diminishing

Partly to mostly cloudy…with most of the heavier showers now offshore to the northeast of Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light…from the trade wind direction into Thursday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii, along with a second high pressure cell far north. The winds remain on the light side, which will continue through most of this new week. As a change of pace, we’ll see the return of light trade winds today into Thursday. They will be light enough that daytime onshore sea breezes will occur…along with offshore blowing land breezes during the nights.

Showers will be hit and miss today…thanks to a low pressure trough lingering near the state. We’ll find lots of moisture available for afternoon showers, especially over the eastern islands through the next couple of days. As this recent rainy episode finally shifts eastward, Kauai and Oahu will actually see some decent sunshine today, at least here and there. Maui County will enjoy some sunny periods today as well…with the Big Island not too far behind.

Weather modelsshow another upper level trough of low pressure developing west of the islands…during the middle part of this new week. These models show deep southerly and southeasterly winds drawing tropical moisture back into the area again Thursday through Friday. Some of the models continue to suggest this potential wet weather could extend on into the weekend…although its still early to know for sure what the weather will be doing then.

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for another 12 hours to 6 pm HST this evening, although the area has been reduced to waters around Kauai only.

No large swells are expected during the next six days…meaning surf will remain below High Surf Advisory levels.

~~~Sunday Evening Film,Rust and Bone, starringMarion Cotillard andMatthias Schoenaerts.A struggling single father helps a beautiful whale trainer recover her will to live following a terrible accident that leaves her confined to a wheelchair. Lonely and destitute, Ali (Matthias Schoenaerts) leaves the north of France for his sister’s house in Antibes after becoming the sole guardian of his estranged five-year-old son Sam. When Ali lands a job as a bouncer in a nearby nightclub, things quickly start to look up for the itinerant father and son. Then one night, after breaking up a fight in the club, Ali meets the radiant Stephanie (Marion Cotillard), and slips her his number after dropping her off safely at home. Though Stephanie’s position on the high end of the social spectrum makes romance an unlikely prospect for the pair, a tragic accident at Marineland robs her of her legs, and finds her reaching out in desperation to Ali. Her spirit broken by the same tragedy that took her legs, Stephanie gradually finds the courage to go on living trough transcendent moments spent with Ali — a man with precious little pity, but an enormous love of life. / Marion Cotillard continues to be my favorite actress, and this film was full of her triumphs…along with a very large dose of suffering. Her love interest in this film played an incredible role as well. They were stunning in this performance, coming away with an A- grade in my opinion, as was my friend Jeff’s take on the film.

Heavy showers might erupt this afternoon over the eastern islands…although conditions seem to be improving to some degree, especially over the western islands

Interesting: Four of the world’s largest cities have announced that they will ban diesel cars by 2025 in an effort to cut air pollution. – Leaders from Paris, Madrid, Athens, and Mexico City made the declaration at the C40 Mayors Summit, a biennial meeting of civic leaders concerned about climate change.

Toxic air is responsible for an estimated 3 million premature deaths each year, according to recent research by the World Health Organization.

While diesel engines burn fuel more efficiently and therefore release less carbon dioxide, they do produce nitrogen dioxide and particulates that can inflame and damage people’s lungs.

“Mayors have already stood up to say that climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face,” said Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris.

“Today, we also stand up to say we no longer tolerate air pollution and the health problems and deaths it causes.”

]]>2Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873712016-12-05T15:21:40Z2016-12-04T15:46:13ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday along with the low temperatures Sunday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Unsettled weather conditions prevail over and around the islands

A trough of low pressure north is moving away to the north, while a second trough remains active just west of Hawaii…keeping a deep plume of moisture over the state

Mostly cloudy…much of which is of the high and middle level variety…although considerable rain bearing clouds too

Showers will be active over the state except Kauai…fewer showers in general later Monday and Tuesday – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels around Kauai

Flash Flood Watch…Maui County and the Big Island

Flood Advisory…the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light…ranging between southwest and southeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii, along with a strong near 1037 millibar high pressure cell far north. We still have Small Craft Advisories posted over the coastal and channel waters around Kauai and Oahu. The winds remain on the light side, which will continue into the new week. Thus, winds won’t be an issue in most cases, except where stronger gusts develop in association with random thunderstorms. There will be volcanic haze locally, being carried over the smaller islands on the southeasterly breezes…coming up from the Big Island vents.

Waves of unsettled weather will continue across the islands into Monday.Showers will be hit and miss for the most part, along with heavy rains and thunderstorms here and there at times…thanks to a couple of low pressure troughs lingering near the state. We’ll find abundant moisture being drawn up from the deeper tropics, along with the potential for rains and flooding at times. There will be periodic breaks in this wet weather, although inclement conditions are expected through much of the new week, with increased rain chances at times.

Weather modelsshow another upper level trough of low pressure developing west of the islands…during the middle part of this new week. These models show deep southerly and southeasterly winds drawing tropical moisture back into the area Wednesday through Friday, after a possible short break later Monday into Tuesday. There are no definite signs of a return to more placid weather conditions from this vantage point. As a matter of fact, some of the models are now suggesting yet another trough of low pressure snuggling up to the islands later next weekend.

Marine environment details: The Hilo nearshore buoy has been trending lower, model data indicate that this trend should continue. The Small Craft Advisory has been dropped for the windward waters of the Big Island and Maui County but will be kept up for Oahu and Kauai through the night. The High Surf Advisory for the east facing shores of the Big Island has also been discontinued.

No large swells are expected so surf is expected to remain below High Surf Advisory levels over the coming week.

~~~Sunday Evening Film,Rust and Bone, starringMarion Cotillard andMatthias Schoenaerts.A struggling single father helps a beautiful whale trainer recover her will to live following a terrible accident that leaves her confined to a wheelchair. Lonely and destitute, Ali (Matthias Schoenaerts) leaves the north of France for his sister’s house in Antibes after becoming the sole guardian of his estranged five-year-old son Sam. When Ali lands a job as a bouncer in a nearby nightclub, things quickly start to look up for the itinerant father and son. Then one night, after breaking up a fight in the club, Ali meets the radiant Stephanie (Marion Cotillard), and slips her his number after dropping her off safely at home. Though Stephanie’s position on the high end of the social spectrum makes romance an unlikely prospect for the pair, a tragic accident at Marineland robs her of her legs, and finds her reaching out in desperation to Ali. Her spirit broken by the same tragedy that took her legs, Stephanie gradually finds the courage to go on living trough transcendent moments spent with Ali — a man with precious little pity, but an enormous love of life. / Marion Cotillard continues to be my favorite actress, and this film was full of her triumphs…along with a very large dose of suffering. Her love interest in this film played an incredible roll as well. They were stunning in this performance, coming away with an A- grade in my opinion, as was my friend Jeff’s take on the film.

Interesting: Four of the world’s largest cities have announced that they will ban diesel cars by 2025 in an effort to cut air pollution. – Leaders from Paris, Madrid, Athens, and Mexico City made the declaration at the C40 Mayors Summit, a biennial meeting of civic leaders concerned about climate change.

Toxic air is responsible for an estimated 3 million premature deaths each year, according to recent research by the World Health Organization.

While diesel engines burn fuel more efficiently and therefore release less carbon dioxide, they do produce nitrogen dioxide and particulates that can inflame and damage people’s lungs.

“Mayors have already stood up to say that climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face,” said Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris.

“Today, we also stand up to say we no longer tolerate air pollution and the health problems and deaths it causes.”

]]>4Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873612016-12-06T00:15:29Z2016-12-03T16:25:09ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday along with the low temperatures Saturday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Unsettled weather conditions prevail over and around the islands

A trough of low pressure north is slowly moving away…while a second trough to our west will become the primary force over the next few days

A mix of clear and cloudy skies

Still some showers…although most of it remains over the nearby ocean at the time of this writing – Looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds will remain generally quite light. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii, along with a very strong near 1040 millibar high pressure cell far north. We still have Small Craft Advisories posted over most of our coastal and channel waters across the state. The winds are lighter this weekend, which are slated to continue into the new week. Thus, winds won’t be an issue in most cases, except where stronger gusts develop in associated with random thunderstorms. There will be volcanic haze being carried over the smaller islands by the southeasterly breezes…coming up from the Big Island vents.

Waves of unsettled weather will continue across the islands.Showers will be hit and miss for the most part, along with heavy rains and thunderstorms here and there at times…thanks to a couple of upper level troughs of low pressure lingering near the state. We’ll find abundant moisture being drawn up from the deeper tropics, along with the potential for excessive rains and flooding at times. There will be periodic breaks in this wet weather, although inclement conditions are expected through much of the new week, with increased rain chances at times. Some of you may be wondering is this unusual? Well, December and January are definitely in the heart of our annual rainy season.

Weather models are keeping rain in the forecast…through much of the next week.They show another upper level trough of low pressure developing west of the islands during the first half of the week. These models show deep southerly and southeasterly winds drawing tropical moisture back into the area Wednesday through Friday, after a possible short break later Monday into Tuesday. We can expect unsettled conditions, and higher than normal rain chances, with locally heavy precipitation and thunderstorms at times too. It will be awhile before we find a typical trade wind weather pattern in charge again.

Marine environment details: East facing shores remain under a High Surf Advisory through tonight, due to a moderate east swell. Buoys exposed to this swell continue to be active, although this swell will decrease over the next couple of days.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for most waters will remain posted through tonight, due to a combination of the east swell and a moderate northwest swell. The SCA and High Surf Advisory are likely to be dropped early Sunday morning. Winds will be light and variable through much of the week. Surf is expected to remain below High Surf Advisory levels through the forecast period.

Unsettled weather across the islands is expected through Sunday night due to an upper level trough passing over the area. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible.

Interesting: Four of the world’s largest cities announced Friday that they will ban diesel cars by 2025 in an effort to cut air pollution. – Leaders from Paris, Madrid, Athens, and Mexico City made the declaration at the C40 Mayors Summit, a biennial meeting of civic leaders concerned about climate change.

Toxic air is responsible for an estimated 3 million premature deaths each year, according to recent research by the World Health Organization.

While diesel engines burn fuel more efficiently and therefore release less carbon dioxide, they do produce nitrogen dioxide and particulates that can inflame and damage people’s lungs.

“Mayors have already stood up to say that climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face,” said Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris.

“Today, we also stand up to say we no longer tolerate air pollution and the health problems and deaths it causes.”

]]>2Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873512016-12-03T16:11:13Z2016-12-02T15:45:09ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday along with the low temperatures Friday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Our winds have taken their expected turn to the southeast, and in the process are lighter and carrying volcanic emissions (vog) to the smaller islands…from the Big Island vents. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii. We still have Small Craft Advisories posted over most of our coastal and channel waters across the state. The recent strong and gusty trades have given way to lighter winds now, which are slated to continue on into early next week. Thus, winds won’t be much of an issue, except in the case of stronger winds associated with random thunderstorms.

Periods of unsettled weather will continue across the islands…through the upcoming weekend at least.Showers will be heavy in some areas, with thunderstorms at times…thanks to an upper level trough of low pressure over and near the state. We’ll find abundant moisture being drawn up from the deeper tropics, along with the potential for excessive rains and flooding at times. Trying to find a few bright spots in this rather gloomy outlook, we may see a few breaks in all this inclement action along the way. The way it looks from here, Monday may be our least rainy day during the next week.

Weather models are keeping low pressure across the state…through much of next week.They also show another upper level trough of low pressure developing west of the islands during the first half of the week. In sum, we may see a brief break in the unsettled weather Monday and Monday night. Although, before we start jumping for joy, it will likely be short lived at best, as the models show deep southerly and southeasterly winds drawing tropical moisture back into the area Tuesday through Friday, keeping conditions unsettled and rain chances above normal…along with more vog then too.

Marine environment details: Surf observations on the northwest shores were at the lower end of advisory levels. The swell for the east facing shores continues, thus the advisory remains in effect.

The satellite pass still showed winds over 25 knots in the coastal waters around Maui County and the Big Island (with even a few 30 knots), though the low level flow had already veered to southeast. The lingering winds and high seas will keep the Small Craft Advisory up for most of the coastal waters areas, except those well shadowed from the winds and seas.

Mariners will have to contend with lower visibilities, and locally higher winds and waves near thunderstorms the next couple of days. As the upper low pressure system lifts out, the best focus for convection should shift from near the Big Island…more toward the western main islands later Saturday into the night. Then, as a surface trough shifts east over the islands this weekend, the highest chances for thunderstorms move back to Maui County and the Big Island Sunday and Sunday night

Interesting: Corals much older than previously thought, study finds– Coral genotypes can survive for thousands of years, possibly making them the longest-lived animals in the world, according to researchers at Penn State, the National Marine Fisheries Service and Dial Cordy & Associates.

The team recently determined the ages of elkhorn corals — Acropora palmata — in Florida and the Caribbean and estimated the oldest genotypes to be over 5,000 years old. The results are useful for understanding how corals will respond to current and future environmental change.

“Our study shows, on the one hand, that some Acropora palmata genotypes have been around for a long time and have survived many environmental changes, including sea-level changes, storms, sedimentation events and so on,” said Iliana Baums, associate professor of biology, Penn State. “This is good news because it indicates that they can be very resilient. On the other hand, the species we studied is now listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because it has suffered such sharp population declines, indicating that there are limits to how much change even these very resilient corals can handle.”

According to Baums, many people mistake corals for plants or even non-living rocks, but corals actually consist of colonies of individual invertebrate animals living symbiotically with photosynthetic algae.

“Previously, corals have been aged by investigating the skeletons of the colonies or the sizes of the colonies,” she said. “For example, bigger colonies were thought to be older. However many coral species reproduce via fragmentation, in which small pieces break off from large colonies. These pieces look like young corals because they are small, but their genomes are just as old as the big colony from which they broke. Similarly, the big colonies appear younger than their true age because they became smaller during the process of fragmentation.”

Now, for the first time, Baums and her colleagues have used a genetic approach to estimate the ages of corals. The method determines when the egg and the sperm originally met to form the genome of the coral colonies. The researchers then tracked the number of mutations that accumulated in the genome since that time. Because mutations tend to arise at a relatively constant rate, the researchers were able to estimate an approximate age in calendar years of the coral genomes in their study.

The results, which appear in print in the November 2016 issue of the journal Molecular Ecology, suggest that some Acropora palmata genomes have been around for over 5,000 years.

“This was surprising, as previously, only cold-water corals were found to be older than 1,000 years,” said Baums. “Knowing the age of individuals in a population is important for understanding their population history and whether the population is increasing or decreasing. It is especially important when the population under study is threatened.

“If Acropora palmata genomes have persisted over hundreds to thousands of years, it implies persistence through substantial environmental changes, and possibly gives hope that they can survive additional anticipated climate change. What is different now is that human-induced climate change is happening at a rate that far exceeds past environmental changes. Therefore, the coral’s past ability to survive environmental change does not necessarily predict their future success.”

]]>5Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873412016-12-02T15:28:20Z2016-12-01T15:42:21ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday along with the low temperatures Thursday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Unsettled weather conditions over Hawaii…with a cold front northwest

Rainy clouds south and east…extending over parts of the island chain

A range of clear to cloudy skies across the state…with locally heavy rains in our vicinity

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Winds remaining stronger than normal tonight…followed by lighter winds Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system northeast of Hawaii. The current windy weather episode will bring 40-50 mph wind gusts to some areas of the island chain. These numbers are the extreme values, with most areas much lighter. As a result, we have Small Craft Advisories posted over all coastal and channel waters across the state. In addition, there’s a Gale Warning over the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, and Maalaea Bay. The trades are forecast to remain blustery over the islands tonight…then weakening significantly later Friday into the weekend. These winds will turn to the southeast, which are infamous for carrying volcanic emissions from the Big Island vents, over the smaller islands.

Showers will be frequent, at least locally…continuing Friday into the weekend.These showers will be heavy in some areas, with even a few thunderstorms…thanks to an upper level trough of low pressure near the state. More specifically, a Kona low pressure system will set up shop just west of the state, bringing a shower prone and unsettled atmosphere over the state. This in turn will draw abundant moisture up from the deeper tropics over the islands, along with the potential for excessive rains and flooding at times. The models continue to suggest that this wet weather could continue for several days into next week.

Marine environment details: Strong trade winds and combined seas continue to warrant a Gale Warning in the windier marine zones, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in the remainder of Hawaiian waters. Winds are still expected to weaken and shift to the SE Friday, as a surface trough develops just west of the islands. However, latest observations indicate that the pressure gradient near the Big Island remains sufficiently tight to warrant an extension of the Gale Warning. While local winds are likely to drop below SCA criteria by Friday, seas in windward zones will likely stay elevated to the point that the SCA will need to be extended through most of the weekend.

A long-running High Surf Advisory remains posted through Friday for east facing shores, due to strong trade winds driving seas and swells toward the islands. This may need to be extended into Saturday as the upstream fetch of trade winds will change little, despite a local drop off in wind speeds. This high surf event is expected to end later in the weekend as the high weakens and seas diminish. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect for exposed north and west facing shores, as a northwest swell is currently arriving, expected to peak Friday, and then gradually diminish through the weekend. Another advisory level northwest swell is possible around the middle of next week.

A Marine Weather Statement issued for thunderstorms over the waters highlights the unsettled weather regime that is expected to prevail the next couple of days. Thunderstorms with dangerous cloud to surface lightning strikes, low visibility in heavy rain, and locally gusty winds will provide potentially dangerous boating conditions. Some model guidance indicates the potential for even stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of days, and mariners should plan accordingly.

Interesting: Corals much older than previously thought, study finds– Coral genotypes can survive for thousands of years, possibly making them the longest-lived animals in the world, according to researchers at Penn State, the National Marine Fisheries Service and Dial Cordy & Associates.

The team recently determined the ages of elkhorn corals — Acropora palmata — in Florida and the Caribbean and estimated the oldest genotypes to be over 5,000 years old. The results are useful for understanding how corals will respond to current and future environmental change.

“Our study shows, on the one hand, that some Acropora palmata genotypes have been around for a long time and have survived many environmental changes, including sea-level changes, storms, sedimentation events and so on,” said Iliana Baums, associate professor of biology, Penn State. “This is good news because it indicates that they can be very resilient. On the other hand, the species we studied is now listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because it has suffered such sharp population declines, indicating that there are limits to how much change even these very resilient corals can handle.”

According to Baums, many people mistake corals for plants or even non-living rocks, but corals actually consist of colonies of individual invertebrate animals living symbiotically with photosynthetic algae.

“Previously, corals have been aged by investigating the skeletons of the colonies or the sizes of the colonies,” she said. “For example, bigger colonies were thought to be older. However many coral species reproduce via fragmentation, in which small pieces break off from large colonies. These pieces look like young corals because they are small, but their genomes are just as old as the big colony from which they broke. Similarly, the big colonies appear younger than their true age because they became smaller during the process of fragmentation.”

Now, for the first time, Baums and her colleagues have used a genetic approach to estimate the ages of corals. The method determines when the egg and the sperm originally met to form the genome of the coral colonies. The researchers then tracked the number of mutations that accumulated in the genome since that time. Because mutations tend to arise at a relatively constant rate, the researchers were able to estimate an approximate age in calendar years of the coral genomes in their study.

The results, which appear in print in the November 2016 issue of the journal Molecular Ecology, suggest that some Acropora palmata genomes have been around for over 5,000 years.

“This was surprising, as previously, only cold-water corals were found to be older than 1,000 years,” said Baums. “Knowing the age of individuals in a population is important for understanding their population history and whether the population is increasing or decreasing. It is especially important when the population under study is threatened.

“If Acropora palmata genomes have persisted over hundreds to thousands of years, it implies persistence through substantial environmental changes, and possibly gives hope that they can survive additional anticipated climate change. What is different now is that human-induced climate change is happening at a rate that far exceeds past environmental changes. Therefore, the coral’s past ability to survive environmental change does not necessarily predict their future success.”

]]>3Glennhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.comhttp://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/?p=873312016-12-01T15:25:57Z2016-11-30T15:27:51ZAir Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Windward showers…with more widespread inclement weather on the way

High and middle level clouds just southeast, with thunderstorms far south…and a cold front far northwest of Hawaii

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative~~~

Winds remaining stronger than normal into Thursday…followed by lighter winds Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing our primary high pressure system northeast of Hawaii. The current windy weather episode will bring 50-60 mph wind gusts to some areas of the island chain. These numbers will be the extreme, with most areas much lighter. As a result, we have Small Craft Advisories posted over all coastal and channel waters across the state. In addition, there’s an unusual Gale Warning over the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Maalaea Bay, and the southeast and leeward waters around the Big Island. Finally, the windiest areas over Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island have a Wind Advisory active as well. The trades are forecast to remain blustery over the islands into Thursday…then weakening significantly Friday into the weekend. These winds will turn to the southeast, which are infamous for carrying volcanic emissions from the Big Island vents, over the smaller islands.

Windward showers will be frequent through Thursday, with a marked increase on the horizon statewide Friday into the weekend.As robust trade winds are blowing, the bulk of these showers will impact the windward sides, although not exclusively. These showers will be quite heavy in a few areas…thanks to the arrival of an upper level trough of low pressure. Looking further ahead, we’ll very likely find a second period of wet weather arriving Friday into the upcoming weekend. More specifically, a Kona low pressure system will set up shop just west of the state, bringing a shower prone and unsettled atmosphere over the state. This in turn will bring abundant moisture from the deeper tropics over the islands, along with the potential for excessive rains and flooding from Saturday into early next week. The models are now hinting at yet another slug of moisture potentially arriving later next week.

Marine environment details: A strong high pressure system to the northeast will maintain strong to gale force northeast to east trade winds over the coastal waters. A Gale Warning is in effect for the windiest zones around the Big Island and Maui through tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the coastal waters. A small craft advisory will also replace the gale warning once it is discontinued. Winds will start to weaken Thursday into Thursday night, then shift out of the southeast Friday…as a surface trough of low pressure develops west of the islands.

The strong trade winds will produce rough surf along east facing shores. The nearshore buoys and surf observations are still at or above advisory levels. While local winds will start to diminish Thursday, the upstream fetch remains long and wide with stronger winds remaining in place upstream.

Interesting: West Antarctic ice shelf breaking up from the inside out – A key glacier in Antarctica is breaking apart from the inside out, suggesting that the ocean is weakening ice on the edges of the continent.

The Pine Island Glacier, part of the ice shelf that bounds the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is one of two glaciers that researchers believe are most likely to undergo rapid retreat, bringing more ice from the interior of the ice sheet to the ocean, where its melting would flood coastlines around the world.

A nearly 225-square-mile iceberg broke off from the glacier in 2015, but it wasn’t until Ohio State University researchers were testing some new image-processing software that they noticed something strange in satellite images taken before the event.

In the images, they saw evidence that a rift formed at the very base of the ice shelf nearly 20 miles inland in 2013. The rift propagated upward over two years, until it broke through the ice surface and set the iceberg adrift over 12 days in late July and early August 2015.

“It’s generally accepted that it’s no longer a question of whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt, it’s a question of when,” said study leader Ian Howat, associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State. “This kind of rifting behavior provides another mechanism for rapid retreat of these glaciers, adding to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes.”

While this is the first time researchers have witnessed a deep subsurface rift opening within Antarctic ice, they have seen similar breakups in the Greenland Ice Sheet—in spots where ocean water has seeped inland along the bedrock and begun to melt the ice from underneath.

Howat said the satellite images provide the first strong evidence that these large Antarctic ice shelves respond to changes at their ocean edge in a similar way as observed in Greenland.

“Rifts usually form at the margins of an ice shelf, where the ice is thin and subject to shearing that rips it apart,” he explained. “However, this latest event in the Pine Island Glacier was due to a rift that originated from the center of the ice shelf and propagated out to the margins. This implies that something weakened the center of the ice shelf, with the most likely explanation being a crevasse melted out at the bedrock level by a warming ocean.”

Another clue: The rift opened in the bottom of a “valley” in the ice shelf where the ice had thinned compared to the surrounding ice shelf.

The valley is likely a sign of something researchers have long suspected: Because the bottom of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet lies below sea level, ocean water can intrude far inland and remain unseen. New valleys forming on the surface would be one outward sign that ice was melting away far below.

The origin of the rift in the Pine Island Glacier would have gone unseen, too, except that the Landsat 8 images Howat and his team were analyzing happened to be taken when the sun was low in the sky. Long shadows cast across the ice drew the team’s attention to the valley that had formed there.

“The really troubling thing is that there are many of these valleys further up-glacier,” Howat added. “If they are actually sites of weakness that are prone to rifting, we could potentially see more accelerated ice loss in Antarctica.”

More than half of the world’s fresh water is frozen in Antarctica. The Pine Island Glacier and its nearby twin, the Thwaites Glacier, sit at the outer edge of one of the most active ice streams on the continent. Like corks in a bottle, they block the ice flow and keep nearly 10 percent of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from draining into the sea.

Studies have suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly unstable, and could collapse within the next 100 years. The collapse would lead to a sea-level rise of nearly 10 feet, which would engulf major U.S. cities such as New York and Miami and displace 150 million people living on coasts worldwide.

“We need to understand exactly how these valleys and rifts form, and what they mean for ice shelf stability,” Howat said. “We’re limited in what information we can get from space, so this will mean targeting air and field campaigns to collect more detailed observations. The U.S. and the U.K. are partnering on a large field science program targeted at that area of Antarctica, so this will provide another piece to the puzzle.”