Assad’s canny game

The Syrian dictator may seem to be faring well but economic collapse should
topple him.

As Syria’s bloodshed grows more fearful, an uncomfortable truth must be faced: the past few weeks have been good for President Bashar al-Assad. His army has crushed the rebels in Homs and recaptured territory along the borders with Lebanon and Turkey that had been dominated by insurgents.

Mr Assad took a significant risk by deploying tanks and heavy artillery for the first time, gambling that he could escalate the carnage while keeping the support of key allies. The signs are that his wager has paid off: Russia and China are still protecting Syria in the Security Council. No one in the region will be surprised that Iran continues to back Mr Assad, but the quiet support offered by Iraq is deeply unsettling. Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, has failed to enforce Arab League sanctions and declined to condemn the violence. Perhaps he is motivated by sectarian loyalty: Mr Assad, an Alawite, might count as a fellow Shia. Whatever his reasoning, Mr Maliki should be told that this indulgence must stop.

Meanwhile, Mr Assad has seen off a peace envoy in the shape of Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary general, and made an empty gesture by calling parliamentary elections for May. Holding on to allies, rebuffing envoys and buying time with cardboard announcements are all signs of a dictator hitting his stride. In the end, the evisceration of Syria’s economy will probably sweep away Mr Assad, but this conflict probably has some time left to run. Now is not the moment for David Cameron to raise expectations of a Kosovo-style intervention, as he does in this week’s Newsweek. Instead, Britain should show patience and a sense of sombre realism. Above all, we can take comfort in the fact that Mr Assad has drunk from the deadly but slow-acting poison of economic collapse.