When you wrote ... "But a look at how quickly the music industry transitioned from LPs, to audio cassettes and then to downloads", you forgot to include CDs. It would be interesting to look at the life span of each ...

Big box stores generally have stereo systems in a different part of the store to TVs and every one that I've been to has both. And that wall of TVs will have a number of them that are 3D, you just don't know it because above a certain price point, it is there whether you like it or not.

Otherwise I agree with both your post and the "Consumer DSLRs dead in 5 years" except for one point - that the A7 looks like it will kill Canon - I'm not sure as it requires big lenses. I'm almost convinced that m4/3 is where the enthusiast market will go and that A7 will end up in the same bucket as regular DSLRs. Sony should be joining the m4/3 segment...

But if DSLRs are in such danger, what of MFDB manufacturers? Does their price point and quality mean that those who are already there will stay there because the ecosystems is somehow stable? Or as DSLRs are relegated to a smaller corner of the market, will they eat into MFDB territory?

I remember reading someone pondering elsewhere the question of "Have you bought your last DSLR?" Well, maybe some of us already have and without knowing it.

I think we're actually regressing back to the 70s, in terms of photography. Back then, "enthusiasts" might have a Pentax and threes lenses (35, 50, 135), while consumers mostly shot Instamatics and maybe Polaroids. Only pros, or aspiring pros, had the heavy stuff -- I remember when I got out of the Army in 1968, yearning for a Nikon and just a modest set of lenses. But if you weren't a pro, you could hardly justify the purchase.

Now, the Instamatic slot is being taken by cell phones. Enthusiasts, who until recently were buying a whole range of cameras, I think are beginning to see that for their purposes the ~$1,000 mirrorless with a few zooms is all they really need. Very soon, only the pros or aspiring pros (and some status-conscious enthusiasts) will be looking at the big guns. In fact, I think a good chunk of the enthusiasts would be pretty happy with a non-interchangable Nex-form or m4/3-form mirrorless camera with something like the current f 2.8 Panny 12-35 or Olympus 12-40 permanently mounted on it. They are fine lenses, with good group shots at one end, good portraits at the other. If somebody does that -- mounts a really good fast zoom on a quality body, I think it might really cut a chunk out of the enthusiast sales.

But overall, this new alignment (going back to the 70s) would mean that the camera companies would shrink rather severely. It's possible that that's the natural result of the aging of the baby boomers, moving out of the affluent "hobby" years and into less affluent older age.

But overall, this new alignment (going back to the 70s) would mean that the camera companies would shrink rather severely. It's possible that that's the natural result of the aging of the baby boomers, moving out of the affluent "hobby" years and into less affluent older age.

I'm not sure it is even just "back to the 70s".

In the 90s, it was still common for "normal people" to buy a compact camera - the instamatic of the 90s - and (wealthy?) enthusiasts bought SLRs. Everyone was using the same film so the difference became being able to control things like aperture, shutter speed and use lenses with a reach greater than ~100mm. Now the smartphone is taking over the role of the "instamatic" or "compact camera" and camera companies are fighting over what's left.

So how long did the DSLR revolution last? Barely 10 years from the introduction of Canon's 10D?

The reality is that the entire market is in decline, including a huge drop in ILC/CSC/mirror less (whatever you wish to call them)I'm not sure just by ripping out a mirror you suddenly decide the DSLR is dead (some folks that is)

ILC's actually dropped more than DSLR'sIt would be a pretty brave person who backed mirror less with those awful figures.

And it would be extremely naive to think Canikon are going to sit on their hands and do nothing at all.Very easy weapon to beat Sony with..deep discounts price them off the market (Sony don't like price cutting) And let's not rule out a "real super budget" Rebel like FF body. It can be done, just as the EOS 300d rocked sales for Canon a new "genuinely" affordable FF body could boost sales no end.

Right now Sony are selling a sensor and not much else. That's great for competition but until I see Canikon ripping mirrors out I'm not backing that horse

I'm seeing some interest from Canikon users in the A7 models, but "hey I might add this" not "I'm dumping my gear". People keeping their lenses and not buying Sony lenses is a long term problem for Sony. Kodak found out the hard way just selling a body has a limited potential. The universal adaptor nature of these new FF models is great for buyers, but ultimately not so great for Sony. They have no mount to lock buyers into.

The jury is out on that strategy, but some people seem to have missed it entirely.

Ooops, CD's got lost between the first draft and the published article. Now reinstated to their rightful place in history.

I wonder if perhaps the role of the CD is understated.

The CD was the first entertainment vehicle that was digital. Following that came video (DVD) and in the 21st century, cameras, telephones, TV and radio.

If the CD had failed, would the others have eventuated?

If we were to say that from 1988 to 2008 was a 20 year period (it may be less) where the world transitioned from analogue to digital then today we're less than 10 years into the "digital era" of human society on this planet.

Problem is, if things are moving that fast, like so much in our current era, they will have killed off the previous iteration without having been able to match it, 'convenience over quality'. I have little doubt that if mirrorless does kill off DSLR's for anything but the high end, it will be before EVF can match OVF and before focus speeds and lens choices come close. There are plenty enough parallels unfortunately.

You do make us think, Michael, thanks. Why do enthusiasts and pros buy big camera bodies and large aperture lenses? Surely one answer lies in the quality of the final image. There is a significant cohort of people that put a lot of effort into shooting images and want an output that reflects that effort. One has to ask if smaller sensors and lenses provide that quality of output. Are the millions of images uploaded to the internet about quality or just content? It would be a pity if content (these are my friends snapped doing… or look where I was today) stifled the production of really good images. Maybe the mass market does not need FF DLSRs and their associated lenses, but that does not mean that good tools should become unavailable.

As I take it the photo industry had good times with digital photography getting extremely popular. DSLR sales were very good and compacts sold well, too. Now, cell phones cameras move upscale and eat up a portion of the compact market.

DSLRs are good enough for most purposes, so market goes into saturation. We had a boom in digital photography but that boom is over, prices go down. It is not a decline, IMHO, but a normalisation.

Vendors need to find new markets or new solutions. I don't know what those solutions may be, but I am pretty sure mirrorless is a new frontier. High end compacts will also expand, I would believe.

If 4K is established, I would expect a lot of development into converged stills and video. Video used to be low res and still high res, but with 4K we could have a common ground.

I think that today already we have a large market segmentation: we have ways of taking professional/serious hobbyists photos, and ways of taking "all the rest" photos. So if you are a photographer (pro or serious amateur), you may care about image quality, sharpness of lenses, and so on... if you are a casual photographer, your smartphone will suffice, period.

I see myself as a good example of this trend; SLR/DLSR user for more than 20 years, now using a Fuji X system, because it is more than good enough for my photographic endeavours. The serious hobbyist is a market minority, and for us, companies like Fuji, Olympus, Sony, and Panasonic, are putting together cameras that we like and enjoy.

The big shift will be when pros start dumping their pro DLSRs, because somebody else is making, or will be making, a smaller and more "connected" camera system.

As I take it the photo industry had good times with digital photography getting extremely popular. DSLR sales were very good and compacts sold well, too. Now, cell phones cameras move upscale and eat up a portion of the compact market.

DSLRs are good enough for most purposes, so market goes into saturation. We had a boom in digital photography but that boom is over, prices go down. It is not a decline, IMHO, but a normalisation.

Indeed ... I wonder how the sales of digital cameras has compared to that of film cameras. After the "mad rush" between ~2004 to 2012 to replace film with digital, is it returning to film sales levels? Or will smartphones see it dip even lower?

I'm seeing some interest from Canikon users in the A7 models, but "hey I might add this" not "I'm dumping my gear".

The A7 / A7r are a foot in the door. I guarantee that Sony will sell ZERO lenses if people don't have a compatible body. in a year or two an A7 purchase because "hey I might add this" can turn into "hey that new FE-mount lens is looking really good, and I have a camera I can use it on".

Promises are not worth much until the product hits the market, but FWIW Sony and Zeiss have promised several new FE-mount lenses in the next year. IMHO CaNikon need to get off their butts if they want to keep their market share.

The A7 / A7r are a foot in the door. I guarantee that Sony will sell ZERO lenses if people don't have a compatible body. in a year or two an A7 purchase because "hey I might add this" can turn into "hey that new FE-mount lens is looking really good, and I have a camera I can use it on".

Promises are not worth much until the product hits the market, but FWIW Sony and Zeiss have promised several new FE-mount lenses in the next year. IMHO CaNikon need to get off their butts if they want to keep their market share.

Absolutely right. Small thought exercise. Say today I have a FF Canon DSLR with a fast 50 f1.2 L lens, or a 85 f1.2 L lens, and I shoot editorial, portraits, or such similar fields. Would I think of switching to say, a Sony A7 with a Zeiss FE 50 or 85 mm lens? Maybe not today, perhaps I am not too comfortable or yet happy with the EVF, or the tethering options, or the lighting system compatibility and options. But it sure looks tempting...

Talking about foot on the door, just look at Zeiss. They now have lenses for all of the market segments, from camera phones to FF DSLRs...

DSLRs will diminish in market share and likely will become a niche product for wealthy enthusiasts. Mainstream enthusiasts will move to so-called mirrorless system cameras and the mass market will happily take pictures with their smartphones while uploading them in real-time to Facebook.

And the mass market will (last Saturday) happily video being-at-the-beach with their smartphones, and then stream to a big screen to share the fun with the rest of the family a few hours later.

True of a different sensor -- "Sony’s latest star performer... Apple’s iPhones 5 and 4S use it and so do Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S4 and LG’s G2 ... almost a third of the $7.6 billion market for low-power sensors that record crisp snapshots. ... Most of the 10.9 billion yen ($111 million) operating profit last quarter from Sony’s device division was generated by sales of the chips..."

I would suggest that going digital made photography more popular with a wider audience. Digital photography is easy, feedback is fast and it also integrates well with modern lifestyle. So market got bigger, much bigger. On the other hand cell phones captured a part of the market and they are good enough for many purposes, putting a lot of pressure on compacts.

Still, high end compacts are probably doing well. Cell phones don't have zooms and advanced controls that real cameras have. It seems that DSLR cameras are still selling well, even if the boom is over. It also seems that folks want cameras with the DSLR look. A prism housing looks like a real camera. So, Olympus and Sony put the EVF in prism housing.

Convergence of stills and video is important, and I think the truly creative photographers embrace the new possibilities offered by digital video. Most helpful in this sense is 4K. With 4K we are still only at 8MP but I think that 4K is good enough for some really good display. 4K screens and projection is an excellent way to display photography and also video.

Indeed ... I wonder how the sales of digital cameras has compared to that of film cameras. After the "mad rush" between ~2004 to 2012 to replace film with digital, is it returning to film sales levels? Or will smartphones see it dip even lower?

The A7 / A7r are a foot in the door. I guarantee that Sony will sell ZERO lenses if people don't have a compatible body. in a year or two an A7 purchase because "hey I might add this" can turn into "hey that new FE-mount lens is looking really good, and I have a camera I can use it on".

Promises are not worth much until the product hits the market, but FWIW Sony and Zeiss have promised several new FE-mount lenses in the next year. IMHO CaNikon need to get off their butts if they want to keep their market share.

I don't see much threat to Canikon FF DSLR's (A7 isn't any cheaper than rival offerings)Some Canon users might pick one up if they are desperate for 36mp

Rangefinder lens users...well the samples I've seen are quite abysmal so I think they're out of luck here unless they shoot short tele lensesNative E mount, the lenses are few, big and expensive as well as not particularly fast the range will grow but I suspect sales will not be great.

The real market is from folks who want FF, buy the body and adaptor and go digging around for 35mm manual focus lenses that cost next to nothing on ebay, and there are plenty around. That's by far the most obvious target, which sadly means Sony are going to have a hard time selling their own lenses. Maybe landscape shooter, or travel photographer.

A7 has no hope at all regarding the pro market, or sports/action/PJ/ type shooters. So I don't see it killing Canikon any time soon. People over estimate the importance of mirror less, it's more about cost savings for makers than "what the market wants" As for small many don't want tiny..again you can't paint people into a corner.

As for the video comments, 4k has very little interest from what I can see bar video shooters. And I expect a slow uptake on 4k sets too. Let's not forget many if not most stills shooters have a minimal interest in video, most couldn't care less about what happens with 4k. The only company that probably had a major panic is Olympus, trying to sell a micro 4/3 body for the same price as a FF one is about as doomed as you can get!