Turkey's Offensive In Syria: The US Falls Into A Trap Of Its Own Making

In the heat of the battle for Afrin, Turkey has warned it will go farther to establish control over vast swathes of land in northern Syria. The offensive is supposed to take Turkish forces as far as Syria’s border with Iraq. On Jan. 28, Ankara called on Washington to withdraw its military from Manbij (100 km from Afrin) before it launches an operation to clear that area of Kurdish militias. It’s important to note that the US had provoked Turkey’s action by announcing its decision to set up a new border security force in the areas under Kurdish control. So Washington has created this situation all by itself – a trap of its own making. Having sown the wind, it reaps the whirlwind.

A push to the east will potentially force a confrontation between Turkish troops and the US-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Kurdish combat units in Afrin missed their opportunity to avoid a worst-case scenario.

Some Pro-Kurdish sources say Russia had betrayed the Afrin Kurds by pulling its peacekeepers out before the Turkish attack began. This is a very misleading statement. Let’s look at the facts. Moscow believes all regions west of the Euphrates should be under the control of the regular Syrian army, because these areas belong to Syria – a territorially cohesive country with a legitimate government. Russia had asked the Kurds in Afrin to interact with Damascus and allow its regular army into the area. They refused. Moscow is still ready to act as a mediator to broker talks on autonomy within Syria. So far that initiative has been rejected. The Kurds have preferred the US as their protector. Now they are on their own. They've made their bed, now they must lie in it.".

The US military has not defended the Kurds in Afrin, claiming it does not regard them as allies on par with the Kurds who are part of the SDF farther east. The US maintains that the Kurds in Afrin did not fight the Islamic State (IS). But even so, those Kurds did protect Afrin and kept their land from being invaded by jihadi militants. Perhaps the US never committed itself to defending the Kurds in Afrin, but it did accept the responsibility of protecting the SDF in Manbij. What will happen now? It is next to impossible to make predictions with any degree of accuracy, but we can contemplate some potential scenarios.

The Turkish Hürriyet Daily News reported that the US and Turkey are in talks over ways to de-escalate the conflict. NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller has confirmed that fact, but it’s not clear how that would jibe with the offensive announced by Ankara to capture the land held by the SDF. In any event, it would be too humiliating for Washington to give in to Turkey’s demand. If the US fails to protect its Kurdish allies, it will have no reason to maintain its military presence in Syria. It will have to leave the country, just as Russia and Syria have requested.

One potential scenario would include inciting a broader uprising of Kurds that would encompass Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. That might reshape the regional map. A development like that is not outside the realm of possibility.

Another consequence – NATO’s cohesion has already been undermined now that Turkey and the US are supporting opposite sides. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the US will either blink first or it will ask NATO to suspend, or even expel, Turkey from that organization, at least as long as President Erdogan is in power. This would naturally push Ankara in the direction of Moscow and Beijing, if it should move from NATO to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. President Erdogan only recently mentioned how tired he was of the whole EU membership process.

A political defeat for the US is the most probable outcome. Washington will have to pay for its lack of a clear action plan in Syria and its inability to fully grasp the situation. Obviously Washington is in a predicament. It is up against a very hard choice.

If the US intends to stay in northern Syria, it certainly needs the Kurds. But if America sides with the Kurds, it will lose Turkey. It might find itself excluded from the entire nation-building process, since it is hostile toward all the major actors: the Syrian government; Russia; Iran; and Turkey. If it abandoned the Kurds, that would be a blow to its credibility in the Middle East, given its recent split with the Palestine Authority over the recognition of Jerusalem.

If the US manages to reach an agreement with Turkey, that will mean farewell to the prospect of Syrian Kurdistan obtaining a special status that would make it an independent state, whether just in practice or perhaps even officially. The Turkish offensive is likely to make the Kurds more willing to negotiate with Damascus. A future alliance with the Syrian government is an alternative that would push the Kurds into the peace process. It would boost Syria’s chances of remaining an undivided state. Moscow could act as a mediator between Damascus, the Kurds, and Ankara. After all, Moscow is one of few capitals where the Syrian Kurds maintain a representative office.

All efforts should be exerted within the framework of the Astana peace process, which is being directed by Moscow, Ankara, and Tehran. Washington has always emphasized that its goal in Syria was to fight against IS. But that jihadist group is now so diminished as to be insignificant in Syria. The mission has been accomplished. Why should Washington expend more time and effort, balanced on the brink of armed conflict with Ankara or with any other actor in Syria? After all, if the Astana peace process succeeds, America’s European allies will heave a sigh of relief as the waves of refugees from Syria abate. The best thing the US could do under these circumstances would be to pull out of Syria, focus on diplomacy, and just give peace a chance.

The Kurds are a problem for Turkey, Iraq, and Syria as they're sitting over top of oil deposits and transport routes. Erodgan wants to restart the trade that ISIS was using to fund itself, Syria and Iraq wants the oil production benefits to go to themselves.

The Kurds, poor bastards, can't trust any of them, and have no where to go, the US is the only country that is offering a chance at survival with peace, and god knows that the US can't be trusted at all.

Only some Kurds are Muslim. ISIS grouped all Kurds as "devil worshipers." There are various factions in the Kurdish population including hard core Marxists.

Most Kurds want an independent Kurdish state. (Attention snowflakes: this is a racist objective. Happens all the time in the real world.) Turkey opposes an independent Kurdish state. This sets up a conundrum with no easy answers.

They are posted as many times as needed - for you to get the message... USA/bad Russia/Iran/Turkey/good.

Then the clowns from 'neo' or some other thinktank the Russkie equivalent of 'GATESTONE INSTITUTE' gets thrown into the mix, for further mind wiping 'R_I-T' hyping... till you break and say "OK"... I'm Boris Badenov's best buddy!

Unfortunately for anyone trying to make some sense of things in the 'muddled east' ... the only thing these sad sacks understand about "objective journalism" is the 'objective' part which is to run the 'death to america' meme into the ground on behalf of the Russo-talmudic mafiyas' program to smother both east and west in a new world ordure of the kabbalistic kind.

It's an entire subindustry in itself, this new agit-prop empire of bs which paints the Americans as the villains in every piece - even, as in this case, when they are absent the scene. Turkey needed no prompting from DC to go south on another neoottoman fantasy safari - their order are directly sent from tel aviv, which - as I have tirelessly pointed out to the uncomprehending gomers who have developed a nail gun to the noggin fetish, has been directly in charge of the Ankara jihadist regime since spring 2016. This spread of jihadist ethnic cleansing south of their own border is simply an extension of the civil war which they have brewed up domestically,

and which will end badly for all involved. Luckily, I've been busy in the lab, brewing up some (nettle-based)homeopathic antidotes to the rabid droolings of these paid talmudic trollsters, and was just working on the perfect one for this piece when I checked in here now! Anti-media medias: Just more "Kabbalism in Action!"

Mike Nomads Truth in Media Jihad: More Fun than a Barrel 0 FSA Flunkies getin flamed by a YPG gal with an ATGM!

It's not without significance to our storyline that those places and peoples figure in the current moment as some of the distant ancestral elements of the folk who make up Anatolia today - who, contrary to the invented mythology of "Turkishness," are a mix of so many different ethnicities as to be describable as nothing other than ANATOLIAN! Even definable groups such as the "Kurds" are really more a part of this mixed ethnic continuum than their own propaganda would let on; and it's entirely on point with our premise here that the breakaway Kurdish enclaves in 'northern Syria' have included mention of "the Goddess" in their political declarations of autonomy. Tapping into the substratum of Anatolian consciousness in such a manner is a savvy move which goes far in balancing the heavy esbaggage of a movement overly-influenced by a reconstructed "Marxist-Leninist" such as Ocalan./

I forget who I’m suppose to be rooting for. Too many war crimes and crimes against humanity to make sense. I think I want Putin to drop the hammer and clear the space completely so the Syrian people can decide their fate

"In contrast, many of those who identify as Kurds in eastern Anatolia have more affinity to clan-based tribal organization under leaders who are Islamized Sunnis often employed by the central state to attack other ethnic minorities. These are the same demographic who occupy northern Iraq now in a putative Kurdistan that is allied with the Ankara Islamist regime. They also have strong and direct ties to Srael."

The US presence in Syria is ILLEGAL. Period. So when US Special Forces start getting killed, don't start bleeting to the UN Security Council because it never sanctioned the US to be there in the first place.

The Kurds in Syria have been blasting the regime for years, fighting against them. Now when Turkey comes in, they call on the regime to help being that it's Syrian soil. Do you think they want to stop the Turks? Especially when the US is there too. Russia will have a good control over what the Turks will and won't do.

Assad is democratically elected, like him or not. And yes he did invite the Russians to help defend his country against proxy US aggression. SO unlike the US, the Russian presence in Syria is LEGAL. You seem to be entirely missing the point.

This whole article is a pile of propagandic crap. The purpose of the US presence in Syria is to keep the Russian/Iranian gas pipeline from reaching the Med. The Kurds are just pawns in the nasty game played by the US. Also the relationship with Turkey completely broke down when the US tried to assassinate Erdogan but failed. All the rest is just useless details. The whole article, not mentioning these issues while they are known by everyone who gives a damn about what is going on over there, is nonsense.

I've said before, USA needs a *Suez" incident to demonstrate the limits of power, now it seems one has been provoked. Either USA wakes up, find a face-saving strategy, or sleep on, and wake up naked. What will it be? Stay tuned folks...

I won't spoil the party with a down vote, but I think your presupposition is misconceived. What you call "the US" is not what it was when Judaic power was uncontested. There was Yinon and there was a threat to Russian survival through a pipeline war. They are still there of course, but the American president is not signed on. He is playing a very strong game with a weak hand. He is supporting the Judaic world order 150 percent, a total shabbos goy but an idiot. Every step he takes brings the empire further to defeat and America to a somewhat mitigated hard landing. Jerusalem, Pakistan/Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea. And just days ago a sanctions list that will guarantee Putin's reelection and drive Russian capital back to Russia. Now, in Syria, an end game that leaves no option but a united Syria. I hesitated to say this sort of stuff lest I give the game away, but then I realized of course the big bad guys know and so do their major enemies. That's why they won't let up. It's just us poor ordinary schmucks who are in the dark.

Seeing the mass media coverage of Trump's trip to China it's hard to imagine that no visitor to China -- ever -- had so grand a reception. The only place I saw it covered was at Larouche's website.

And at the edge of a conference in Vietnam a couple of months back Trump and Putin met for just a few seconds to shake hands. Putin is one of the world's tough guys. But see the look on his face.

So forget about "the US". No such creature. But there is a once much loved and respected nation that might make a recovery.

you sure about that? may be (((they))) ...opppsss ISIS .... has to kill a few more millions Jazidis up in the mountains ... who knows might need PIPELINES there too.

these wars (mass killings) are about disposing people of their land where they lived since biblical times ... i am sure it will reach you wherever you are hidding in uk (brexit) or europe with all these "immigrants/ISIS" (if you need further evidence dont look further than this farse of a trial of this ISIS person in brussels.... unless you are notified you might get accidented in another terror attack.

"Washington has always emphasized that its goal in Syria was to fight against IS. But that jihadist group is now so diminished as to be insignificant in Syria. The mission has been accomplished."

That was not the goal. The goal was and is to control through proxies land for oil and oil pipelines, to do this the US armed jihadist groups in order to make Syria a failed state and bleed Russia. Same as in Afghanistan. I have sympathy for the Kurds but they sure made the wrong choice when they allied with the US.

As for Turkey, it knows the Kurds are not a threat, it is using the Kurds as a false flag in order to consolidate Erdogans dictatorial powers and expand its territory. It would be satisfying to see the US corporate mercenary military fight Erdogans' jihadis troops, but I suspect they are putting on a show to obfuscate their real motives.

"Jewish influence on us policy is the only reason, why is USA in Syria"

Spot on.

The omission of this very real factor is making the world pay dearly.99% the media don't mention this, nor they justify why it's in the best interest of U$A for U$A to destroy Syria or scheduled to kill Iran next.

"A future alliance with the Syrian government is an alternative that would push the Kurds into the peace process. It would boost Syria’s chances of remaining an undivided state. Moscow could act as a mediator between Damascus, the Kurds, and Ankara. After all, Moscow is one of few capitals where the Syrian Kurds maintain a representative office.'

That would be sensible and let's not bother about the credibility of the US in the ME: there is none anyway and digging deeper into that hole is not going to help. The US is breaking laws and sometimes it works in its favour to actually appreciate a few laws.