Can Harper hang on? Don’t bank on it

Loyalists will try to resuscitate Stephen Harper at the Conservative convention in Calgary this week. They will make the case that he didn’t know about the grimy hush-money efforts carried out by his office — even though he is one of the most hands-on prime ministers we’ve ever had.

They will tout all his political successes and his recent policy coup with the European free trade deal. They’ll say he has made mistakes in the handling of this scandal — but what prime minister hasn’t made mistakes, big ones?

This will be the majority view of delegates in Calgary. The minority — the ones losing faith in Harper — will be heard off stage. They are increasing in number but the prime minister will be helped by the fact that there is no popular heir apparent for them to rally around, no Paul Martin to his Jean Chretien.

But beyond the party, there are the people — they’re losing faith in this prime minister. The media are as well. He has been propped up for a long time by the horserace mentality — the argument that, since he’s done well in elections and therefore must be a worthy fellow, we should overlook his duplicitous, authoritarian ways and his use of tactics that, while vile, are justified by the fact that politics is a blood sport.

But a consensus is forming now. “The problem,” as historian Michael Bliss wrote this week, “is that, as in the Watergate affair that destroyed the Nixon administration, lies, stonewalling and law-breaking in high places about initially insignificant matters can escalate to a point where they bring down vast temples.”

The danger for Harper now is that the floodgates are open and, as under Nixon, they’ll reach well beyond a single scandal. A pattern of abuse of power is being exposed on many fronts and it can’t be contained.

The broad Elections Canada robocalls probe should conclude in the spring. That’s when Harper will have to decide whether to stay or call a leadership convention. If he waits longer than that, his successor would have no time to prepare for the next election.

Now that someone from the inside has spoken out, has called down the king, more will be prepared to do so. From victims of anti-democratic bullying, there likely will be damaging leaks aplenty. There will be leaks from within the party, from the camps of leadership hopefuls, from bureaucrats who’ve been gagged.

While we’ve learned a lot about how the Harper machine operates, they’ve kept the information channels so blocked we probably still don’t know the half of it. How much is still to come?

On the vote suppression story, a documentary is being produced by a filmmaker who is digging deep. There is the court case of Michael Sona, the Tory charged in the robocalls affair, which will be heard soon. There is the broad Elections Canada robocalls probe, which should conclude in the spring. That’s when Harper will have to decide whether to stay or call a leadership convention. If he waits longer than that, his successor would have no time to prepare for the next election.

Though he doesn’t have an heir apparent in his own party, Harper is for the first time facing an opposition leader who is highly popular. Justin Trudeau’s already wide margin over the Conservatives can be expected to broaden in the coming months.

Harper has pledged to lead the party into the next election. He surely doesn’t want to be seen to be stepping down because of scandal … and Trudeau. He has dug himself out of many holes before and will do everything in his power to do it this time.

But many things will have to work in his favour. First of all, he’ll have to extricate himself from the current Senate mess without much more damage to his credibility. He can’t afford more revelations that suggest he is a liar. Then, if he gets a go-ahead from the Supreme Court for Senate reform, he could head a campaign for a wholesale overhaul that could help wipe away some of the stench. He could call a national referendum on the future of the Senate. Let the people decide. It might be his best option.

He’ll also have to get a clean bill of health on the electoral fraud allegations. If there are serious revelations in the Elections Canada report, Harper is kaput.

All of these things may happen — and Justin Trudeau could stumble, too. But the list is long and Harper’s odds are not good. There is a common thread running through his governance, a pattern of subverting or attempting to subvert the system, the public trust. It has finally caught up to him.

Lawrence Martin is the author of 10 books, including six national bestsellers. His most recent, Harperland, was nominated for the Shaughnessy Cohen award. His other works include two volumes on Jean Chrétien, two on Canada-U.S. relations and three books on hockey.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.