How Do SAG and Globe Nominations Impact Oscar Prospects? (Analysis)

THR's awards analyst explains why it would be ill-advised to dismiss the Oscar prospects of Tom Hanks for "Saving Mr. Banks" and others just because they were snubbed by the two earlier-announcing groups.

Disney

"Saving Mr. Banks"

For his performance in Captain Phillips, Tom Hanks was nominated for both SAG and Golden Globe lead actor awards, but for his performance in Saving Mr. Banks he was nominated for neither group's best supporting prize. Does that mean that he is assured an Oscar nomination for the former and out of the running for the latter? In a word, no.

Far too often, we forget the major distinctions -- in terms of size, origin and background -- between the groups that determine the nominations for the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe and Academy awards. SAG noms are determined by 2,100 randomly selected, U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA; Golden Globe noms are determined by about 90 non-American journalists; and Oscar noms are determined by approximately 6,000 people from all over the world who actually make movies.

Because many -- in fact, most -- Oscar-nominated performances do receive SAG and/or Globe noms en route to their Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag SAG and/or Globe noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that performances that do snag SAG and/or Globe noms are locks for Oscar noms. A look at the last 12 years of results from all three groups, though, does not bear this out entirely.

Many of these performances came in late-year releases (i.e. Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart and von Sydow inExtremely Loud and Incredibly Close), which probably prevented some SAG and Globes voters from seeing them. Others were smallish performances in big contenders (i.e. Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator and Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook) and may have picked up additional steam since the SAG and Globe noms were announced. And still others were the beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that finally resonated with voters (i.e. Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful and Riva in Amour).

Meanwhile, 19 performances that received both SAG and Globe noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen (i.e. Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits and Hawkes in The Sessions) that wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Others came from movie stars who had rarely done "serious movies" but were trying to be seen in a new light (i.e. Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart and Kunis in Black Swan). And still others were simply in jam-packed categories in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (i.e. Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed and, again, Hawkes in The Sessions).

So let's apply this to 2013.

The following performances received both SAG and Globe noms:

Bruce Dern (Nebraska) for best actorChiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) for best actorTom Hanks (Captain Phillips) for best actorMatthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) for best actor

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) for best actressSandra Bullock (Gravity) for best actressJudi Dench (Philomena) for best actressMeryl Streep (August: Osage County) for best actressEmma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) for best actress

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) for best supporting actorDaniel Bruhl (Rush) for best supporting actorMichael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) for best supporting actorJared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) for best supporting actor

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) for best supporting actressLupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) for best supporting actressJulia Roberts (August: Osage County) for best supporting actressJune Squibb (Nebraska) for best supporting actress

The following performances received either a SAG or Globe nom:

Christian Bale (American Hustle) for best actorLeonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) for best actorIdris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) for best actorOscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) for best actorJoaquin Phoenix (Her) for best actorRobert Redford (All Is Lost) for best actorForest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler) for best actor

Amy Adams (American Hustle) for best actressJulie Delpy (Before Midnight) for best actressGreta Gerwig (Frances Ha) for best actressJulia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said) for best actressKate Winslet (Labor Day) for best actress

Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace) for best actorLeonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby) for best actorHugh Jackman (Prisoners) for best actorMichael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) for best actorBen Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty) for best actor

BereniceBejo (The Past) for best actressAdele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color) for best actressBrie Larson (Short Term 12) for best actressSophie Nelisse (The Book Thief) for best actress

Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace) for best supporting actorGeorge Clooney (Gravity) for best supporting actorChris Cooper (August: Osage County) for best supporting actorHarrison Ford (42) for best supporting actorWill Forte (Nebraska) for best supporting actorJames Franco (Springs Breakers) for best supporting actorJohn Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis) for best supporting actorJake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners) for best supporting actorTom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) for best supporting actorJonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) for best supporting actorDavid Oyelowo (Lee Daniels' The Butler) for best supporting actorJeremy Renner (American Hustle) for best supporting actorGeoffrey Rush (The Book Thief) for best supporting

Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club) for best supporting actressNaomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) for best supporting actressScarlett Johansson (Her) for best supporting actressMelissa Leo (Prisoners) for best supporting actressMargo Martindale (August: Osage County) for best supporting actressMargot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street) for best supporting actressOctavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) for best supporting actress

On the basis of the last 12 years of history, the odds are that at least one of the 15 performances that received a SAG and Globe nom will not receive an Oscar nom, and that at least one of the many performances that received neither a SAG nor a Globe nom will. Drawing upon that history, who are they most likely to be?

The best actor category is the most crowded and hard to predict -- and, as was demonstrated by the SAG noms, which excluded the widely presumed frontrunner Redford, no one is safe. I do think that All Is Lost's Redford will be nominated, but I also believe that The Butler's Whitaker, a past Oscar winner who was snubbed by the Globes, has a substantial base of support and that The Wolf of Wall Street's DiCaprio, a three-time Oscar nominee who was snubbed by SAG, will pick up steam as more people catch up with his late-screening movie. The point is that I believe that at least one of the four men who received both SAG and Globes noms for best actor will get bumped. And I regret to say that I do still think that Nebraska's Dern and Captain Phillips' Hanks are the most vulnerable -- despite the fact that Hanks is Hanks and Dern has been everywhere and doing everything he possibly can to promote his candidacy.

The best actress category seems more set, if only due to lack of viable alternatives. August: Osage County is not everyone's cup of tea, but I think that Streep is so revered that she will still be nominated, as will her fellow SAG and Globe nominees Blanchett, Bullock, Dench and Thompson, who are up for better movies this year. If someone does go down, though, it will probably come at the expense of four-time nominee Adams -- a Globe but not SAG nominee this year -- for American Hustle, a late-in-the-year release, or Louis-Dreyfus for Enough Said.

In the best supporting actor race, I'm a little worried about Captain Phillips' Abdi and Rush's Bruhl, who both received SAG and Globes noms, but are still largely unknown to most people and could be overtaken by Saving Mr. Banks' Hanks (whom we know is beloved by the Academy and is up for a character -- Walt Disney -- who was the face of the movie industry), The Wolf of Wall Street's Hill (remember how late-year releases do) or even someone like Nebraska's Forte or Enough Said's Gandolfini.

Finally, I have been projecting -- and plan to continue to project -- that Dallas Buyers Club's Garner, who has yet to be nominated by anyone, will crack the best supporting actress category. Why? Because most Oscar voters only screen a small number of the contenders (probably somewhere between a dozen and two dozen) and then fill out their ballots with the stars of the movies they liked. That logic paid off last year when I forecasted an Oscar nom in this same category for Silver Lining Playbook's Jacki Weaver, not because I felt she deserved it, but because I suspected she would ride her popular film's coattails to a nom. That notion was ridiculed -- until it happened. But if Garner gets in, who will she bump? I am totally convinced, at this time, that Nyong'o and Lawrence are safe, but I think that Nebraska's Squibb and August's Roberts are on shakier ground. Because I do expect Winfrey to rebound from her Globes snub, and am sticking with my Garner pick for now, I would have to say that Roberts will probably be the first (wo)man overboard -- her movie is just not good or liked enough.

Needless to say, all of this is subject to change over the coming weeks, so stay tuned!