The People’s President? Public Opinion and Presidential Policy.

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Presentation on theme: "The People’s President? Public Opinion and Presidential Policy."— Presentation transcript:

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The People’s President? Public Opinion and Presidential Policy

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I. A Public Agenda? A. A Poll-Driven Agenda for America

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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Jan , N=1,007 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1 (for all adults). "In general, do you think that it is a good idea or a bad idea to change the Social Security system to allow workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market?" GoodBad Idea IdeaUnsure %% 1/13-17/ /9-13/ Social Security: Don’t Privatize

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2. Gay Marriage Recognize?

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"Do you think marriages between homosexuals should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" (N=499, MoE ± 5)

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B. Gay Marriage Recognize? NO Amend Constitution?

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"Would you support or oppose amending the United States Constitution to ban same- sex marriage?“ Support Oppose Unsure %% 12/7-12/ /18-22/ /16-22/

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B. Is This The Right Course? Let Social Security be Gays: No marriage (but no amendment either) – civil unions are OK Cut taxes Restrict guns and impose death penalty Allow abortion for any physical/mental health reason – but not for economic reasons Fight for oil, but not allies (Korea) or democracy

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III. Implications of the Model A. Agenda-Setting: Who has power to set the agenda? 1. Individuals: Little power a. “Write a letter to your representative:” Try it! b. Initiative: Can you personally gather 10,000 signatures? c. Demands: Do single-person protests work? d. Run for office: Officials can set agenda

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2. Unorganized Groups: Little Power a. No spokespeople – Who really speaks for: African-Americans? Consumers? Whites? b. Lack of credible commitment i. No means to coordinate behavior: Little conditional support ii. Cannot be held to promises: No one to punish c. Free-riding and limited resources i. Incentive to enjoy benefits of group pressure ii. Incentive to avoid paying costs of group pressure iii. No single person’s contribution makes a difference (Assumes large groups) iv. Result: No one is willing to contribute resources on behalf of the group objective

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C. Media: From Presidential Policy to Public Perceptions 1. “Hostile Media Effect” – Most people think media is biased against their side 2. Systematic Bias: a. Partisan Bias (preference for one party): Appears to be rare (ratios of positive:negative stories about each party roughly similar) b. Ideological Bias (preference for left or right) i. Some studies find right-wing (Fox, WSJ) or left-wing (NYT, CSM) bias BUT ii. Differences in news reports are quite small: Owners are conservative but reporters tend to be liberal iii. Opinion/editorial biases much more pronounced

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e. Effect of Bias: Remarkably Small i. Selection Effect: People choose to watch news sources with which they agree ii. Example: Availability of Fox News did not increase pro-conservative views among viewers. Instead, people who were already conservative tuned in. iii. “Neutral” Biases (Spin and Official Source) probably most influential: hard to filter out

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A. Measuring Approval 1. Never rely on one poll: Margins of Error 2. Are the polls biased? 3. General trend: Most Presidents gradually lose support over time (exceptions: Reagan, Clinton) 4. Other determinants: Economy, Foreign Affairs, Scandals

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Comparison: Recent Two-Term Presidents

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B. How Does the President React to the Data? 1. High Approval: Presidential agenda becomes bolder: broad legislative proposals, more frequent vetoes, more frequent use of military force 2. Low Approval: Presidents more willing to compromise with Congress 3. Presidents use major speeches to increase approval (3%-6% short-term boost)