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Monthly Archives: November 2015

P-Noy’s Ateneo High School Batch 1977 Will NOT Endorse Mar Roxas in 2016

President Benigno Aquino lll’s influential (many members of this class enjoy top positions in government as political appointees, they form part of the President’s KKK for “Kapamilya” family members, “Kaklase” classmates and “Kabarilan” shooting buddies) Ateneo de Manila High School batch of 1977 will NOT endorse nor actively campaign for fellow Atenean (ADMHS batch of 1975) Mar Roxas for President in 2016. The batch will, however, go all-out to support the Vice Presidential run of Leni Robredo and the Senate re-election bid of Teofisto “TG” Guingona lll, also a member of ADMHS class of 1977. The former Senator and DILG Secretary is two years ahead of the batch of President Aquino so many of the 1977 class are familiar with or friends and acquaintances of Mar Roxas since their grade school and high school days. No reason was given for the NON-ENDORSEMENT.

Presidential candidate Mar Roxas declares that the Tanim Bala airport extortion scheme is a DEMOLITION JOB hatched to destroy the image of the government.

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Social media, specifically Facebook, could be the crucial platform and news distribution system that will determine the next Philippine President in 2016. Traditionally, the incumbent President has the upper hand in choosing an anointed one. It worked once in 1992 when outgoing President Cory Aquino endorsed her Defense Secretary Fidel Ramos in a controversial move that split the administration party. In 1998, President Ramos supported close ally Speaker of the House Jose De Venecia Jr. but the movie star Joseph Estrada won. In 2010, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo raised the hand of her Secretary of Defense Gilbert Teodoro in a move considered to be a “kiss of death” and true enough Teodoro fared miserably (landing at fourth place) compared to the winner, current President Benigno Aquino lll. Today, as the popularity and satisfaction ratings of Noynoy Aquino continue to fall due to among others, the Mamasapano incident, the slow Typhoon Yolanda rehabilitation, the Supreme Court losses regarding the PDAF and DAP pork barrel funds (both declared unconstitutional) and a general belief in his incompetence, presumptive Liberal Party nominee DILG Secretary Mar Roxas may not necessarily gain votes by being associated with and endorsed by P-Noy. On the other hand, the ties that bind the two (Roxas gave way to Aquino to run for president and slid down to run as vice-president but lost) are “strong” so Roxas may be stuck with an endorsement from a lame duck president.

The next factor that determines outcomes in political exercises is the traditional mass media. However, due to the introduction and general acceptance of smartphones, laptops, tablets and other hand-held devices, fewer and fewer Filipinos are buying or reading newspapers thus negating possible advantages for candidates with money to burn. Online news is the default position mainly because it is free. There is little experience, however, on the use of the Internet in the determination of winners in national and local elections.

Now, here comes social media, which is credited for the fall of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Facebook and Tweeter were also instrumental in mobilizing hundreds of thousands of protesters for the anti-pork barrel rallies in the Philippines is 2013. In 2014, social media contributed largely to the Occupy Central (Hong Kong) protest movement. In other words, social media, primarily Facebook, now has a successful history of political mobilizations with spectacular results.

The candidates for national office (President, Vice President and Senators) would best be advised to have a sound social media strategy lest they be swept away by the fury unleashed by blogs, twits and Facebook posts.

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In 2009 and 2010, a group of Ninoy and Cory Aquino admirers formed the core of the Noynoy Aquino social media offensive for the May 2010 Presidential elections. Grieving the loss of the icon of Philippine democracy, former President Corazon Aquino, the mantle was passed to her son, Noynoy, forcing then Senator Mar Roxas to give up his presidential ambition and just settle on a vice-presidential run (where he lost to Makati Mayor Jojomar Binay).

In 2009, Noynoy supporters formed the Facebook fan page account Benigno “Noynoy” S. Aquino lll. This was the main vehicle that attracted hundreds of thousands of newly minted netizens that embarked on a massive online marketing campaign. There were three other significant aspirants – real estate tycoon and Senator Manny Villar, former President and convicted felon Erap Estrada and then President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Administration candidate Gibo Teodoro of the Cojuangco clan (and a maternal cousin of Noynoy Aquino).

Early on, the big fight was between the well funded machinery of Manny Villar and the mainly all-volunteer forces of the self-named Yellow Army in honor of Ninoy’s yellow ribbon upon his assassination in 1983.

Villar was the survey front runner until charges of using his political influence for personal/corporate gain derailed his plans to become the national Chief Executive. It must be noted that AFTER his electoral loss, all the so-called charges against Villar simply vanished (due to lack of actionable evidence). In other words, Villar was but a victim of BLACK PROPAGANDA. The Yellow Army congratulated themselves for installing Noynoy, now renamed P-Noy, in Malacanang Palace. Significantly, most of the Noynoy boosters heavily campaigned for Mar Roxas for Vice President too so 2016 would be REDEMPTION time with the Liberal Party fielding Mar Roxas for President. In other words, a Mar Roxas versus Jojo Binay Part 2 is/was a foregone conclusion, this time for the Office of the President of the Republic of the Philippines.

What seemed like an epic one-on-one battle in 2016, however, developed complications with the entry of Senator Grace Poe (who was a survey front runner for a couple of months until Davao Mayor Rordigo Duterte crashed the party and is now the Metro Manila survey front runner).

This merely means that the Mar Roxas propaganda group is only prepared to bash Binay and they have not been successful even in this field as the Vice President, in spite of all the negative press related to graft and corruption charges, continues to post survey figures above that of Roxas. With the entry of both Poe and Duterte, the Mar campaign team is STUNNED and CONFUSED since all their efforts in terms of paid media ads are not getting positive results. Mar Roxas was trailing at number three position with Poe and Binay as his opponents, now, with the entry of Duterte, he is languishing in the fourth and last (if you only consider those with a chance of winning) place.

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Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte LED all 2016 Presidential candidates in a recently conducted poll survey among Metro Manila voters. This is the first time Digong has taken the number one position mainly because he had been playing games with his supporters – seemingly showing interest in a Presidential run then professing absolute disdain in the position. Significantly, the survey was conducted PRIOR to his much anticipated decision to run for President.

Take note that when asked to comment on the survey result, the Liberal Party spokesperson Congressman “Bimbo” (in American parlance, a dumb blonde) was at a loss on how to make a positive spin on an obviously DEVASTATING result for his standard bearer Mar Roxas and the good Marikina representative cited that Roxas had a 7 point increase. Unfortunately, nothing could be farther from the truth because in the prior similar (September) survey Mar Roxas was fourth at 13 percent. Since Roxas only got 11 percent in this latest (November) survey, that means he actually LOST 2 percent rather than gain 7 percent. Was “Bimbo” MISQUOTED, MISINFORMED, CONFUSED, DESPERATE, IN PANIC or SIMPLY STUPID? It is still a long way to May 2016 but we are already seeing signs of “cracking up” in the Administration team. Senator Poe was patiently wooed to slide down as the Liberal Party Vice Presidential candidate but FPJ’s daughter spurned the idea and went on to mount her own Presidential run. In a three-way contest Mar Roxas would have landed third (with Vice President Binay contesting the Presidency with Poe). Now in a four horse race, Mar Roxas, 2010 losing Vice Presidential candidate, as things stand today, would probably land in the number FOUR position.

Related material:

Part of Philippine Daily Inquirer report

One in every three voters (34 percent) in Metro Manila said he or she would vote for Duterte if elections were held early this month.

Pulse Asia conducted face-to-face interviews with 300 respondents from Nov. 11 to 12, or less than two weeks before Duterte declared that he would seek the presidency in the May 2016 general elections.

Just two months ago, Duterte placed second in Metro Manila, 4 percentage points behind the then front-runner, Poe.

Results of the Pulse Asia survey in September showed that Duterte got 27 percent, lower than the 31 percent obtained by Poe. Binay came in third with 26 percent, Roxas was fourth with 13 percent.

***** Informed of the latest Pulse Asia survey, Marikina Rep. Miro Quimbo of the Liberal Party said Roxas’ rating had increased by 7 points.*****

Sought for comment, Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, spokesperson for Poe, said: “We have yet to see the survey. To comment on a survey that has not been made public by any group is unfair and inconclusive. The method, sample, etc., are factors that must be considered.”

Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is now leading in the popularity survey. Please take note that the survey was conducted PRIOR to the formal announcement of Digong to run for President. This can only mean that his rating would go even higher on the basis that his “soft” supporters did not choose him out of a list of 5 candidates because of the UNCERTAINTY that Mayor Duterte himself caused by flip-flopping on his intention to run or not. Mayor Duterte is strongest in his home base in the Visayas and Mindanao so this Metro Manila poll is even more SIGNIFICANT.

Asked about the survey, Duterte last night said he did not know why people from Metro Manila chose him, a “probinsyano.”

“I am happy if I am leading or just equal to Poe. I am running on a matter of principle because I don’t want anyone messing up the Constitution.” Duterte said in a phone interview.

“It’s a matter of principle and there are times and events in your life that you just do what you have to do,” he added.

Respondents were showed a list of five names (Binay, Duterte, Poe, Roxas and Santiago) and were asked, “If the following were candidates for President of the Philippines, whom would you vote for if the 2016 elections were held today?”

Pulse Asia conducted face-to-face interviews with 300 respondents from Nov. 11 to 12, or less than two weeks before Duterte declared that he would seek the presidency in the May 2016 general elections.

Privately commissioned

The privately commissioned survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Pulse Asia confirmed that it ran the survey.

It was only on Nov. 21 when Duterte declared his bid for the presidency at a private party in Dasmariñas, Cavite province, a complete turnaround from his earlier statements that he was not seeking the highest elective post in the land despite appeals from his supporters.

At the private party, the Davao mayor said Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano of the Nacionalista Party would be his running mate.

Platform of gov’t

Duterte and Cayetano are campaigning on a strong anticrime and corruption platform.

Both are pushing for federalism as an alternative form of government to push for political and economic reforms throughout the country.

Just two months ago, Duterte placed second in Metro Manila, 4 percentage points behind the then front-runner, Poe.

Results of the Pulse Asia survey in September showed that Duterte got 27 percent, lower than the 31 percent obtained by Poe. Binay came in third with 26 percent, Roxas was fourth with 13 percent.

Vice President

In the survey for vice presidential candidates this month, Sen. Francis Joseph “Chiz” Escudero, Poe’s running mate, was leading with 32 percent, followed by Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., 24 percent, and Cayetano, 20 percent. Pulse Asia said Marcos and Cayetano are statistically tied.

Among members of the ABC socioeconomic class, Duterte received 38 percent, double the 19 percent obtained by Poe.

Santiago got 15 percent, and Binay and Roxas each got 14 percent.

Among members of Class D, Duterte received 34, followed by Poe with 28 percent; Binay, 21 percent; Roxas, 12 percent; and Santiago, 5 percent.

Informed of the latest Pulse Asia survey, Marikina Rep. Miro Quimbo of the Liberal Party said Roxas’ rating had increased by 7 points.

Sought for comment, Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, spokesperson for Poe, said: “We have yet to see the survey. To comment on a survey that has not been made public by any group is unfair and inconclusive. The method, sample, etc., are factors that must be considered.”

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The entry of Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte into the 2016 Presidential race is finally on after many months of uncertainty. In what can aptly be described as a political telenovela, Rody or Digong kept most of his supporters in doubt as he swung from an almost certainly YES to a definitely NO position many times over.

Speculations are already rife that a Duterte candidacy would carve out major portions nationwide from survey front runner Senator Grace Poe while the Davao mayor will grab votes from survey runner-up Vice President Jejomar Binay in Duterte’s own island of Mindanao. The bet of the Administration, the Liberal Party and the ANOINTED ONE of President Aquino, 2010 losing Vice Presidential candidate, Mar Roxas is predictably going down to the number four position in the next national popularity polls.

Should Mayor Duterte win over Senator Poe/VP Binay/Secretary Roxas in 2016, his campaign strategy would be studied for future elections. Mayor Duterte did not announce his presidential plans early unlike Vice President Binay who revealed his ambition way back in 2010 right after being sworn in as Vice-President. The Davao Mayor did not even file his Certificate of Candidacy on October 16, 2015 (the last day of filing) while former DILG Secretary Roxas and Senator Poe filed within the prescribed period of submission. Mayor Duterte would just be relying on a presidential candidate who would withdraw or has withdrawn so he can come in as a SUBSTITUTE (which can be a little tricky although there are a lot of presidential candidates who can be convinced to withdraw in his favor as long as such candidate belongs to a political party).

At the minimum, the entry of Mayor Duterte in the Presidential derby only makes the 2016 national elections more exciting. The possible DISQUALIFICATION of Senator Poe would not automatically hand the Presidency on a SILVER PLATTER to either Vice President Binay or Secretary Roxas, now that the Davao Mayor has thrown his hat in the POLITICAL ring.

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Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago announced that she has/had Stage 4 lung cancer and she underwent chemotherapy for it. She declared that she is/was cancer-free after the the chemotherapy but she has now refused to comment on her current medical condition. Unconfirmed medical reports state that she PRESENTLY has malignant pleural effusion for which she regularly undergoes thoracentesis (a procedure to remove fluid, in this case malignant, from her chest or lung cavity). If true, this means that her lung cancer is NOT under control and is continuing to multiply with the possibility of lymph node metastasis and/or distant metastasis (liver, brain, bones, etc.). Stage 4 lung cancer is highly lethal with a high mortality rate even with the best currently available treatment modalities (surgery, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, etc.). At the very least, Senator Santiago does not have the strength and physical capacity to embark on a tiring national campaign.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago and Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte are two politicians very well known for their strict governance, but because Miriam’s popularity is already on the decline, will she really sacrifice her desire to become President and just support Mayor Rodrigo Duterte instead?

Rumors are circulating in the Internet about the forthcoming withdrawal of Senator Miriam Santiago for the Presidency this 2016 to give way to Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. According to some supporters of Mayor Duterte, they are already sure that Miriam Santiago is going to give her support to Duterte because they both care for our country. “We know that Miriam is already not that popular and the best strategy is to pass her supporters to Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and we believe that she is going to to this because she really knows that she is going to lose again in 2016”, one of the supporters of Mayor Duterte said to our source. This was posted by Eusebio Dabawenyo on October 2015, sharing the Duterte master plan for the 2016 election. Everything has already happened except for the withdrawal of Santiago.

This latest news is not yet confirmed by the camp of Senator Santiago. Duterte decided to run for presidency this 2016 because he feels that Senator Grace Poe is destroying the law, as she is not really qualified to run for the presidency because she is an American citizen, but she is resorting to dirty ways to make it possible.

Duterte declared his decision to seek the highest position in the land while he was in Cavite.