Official bowl speculation / "How tan will I get this Christmas?" thread

Official bowl speculation / "How tan will I get this Christmas?" thread

I'm not sure about a lot of this, but I thought that I'd start a thread to collect some news, speculation, and opinions.

Here's what's extremely likely: we'll play an SEC team in either the Outback Bowl or Gator Bowl. With Nebraska losing, we're ineligible for the Capital One Bowl, since we have two fewer wins than Nebraska. So either Nebraska or Northwestern will go to the Capital One.

Then the Outback Bowl picks. They'll choose between Michigan and whichever of Nebraska and Northwestern doesn't go to the Capital One Bowl. If the Capital One picks Northwestern, the Outback has to pick Nebraska. Then the Gator Bowl chooses, and they'll almost certainly pick whichever of the three is left.

That means that we're playing an SEC team. If you believe some reporting out there by the Atlanta Journal Constitution and Shreveport Times (links below), the SEC bowl picture seems to be clarifying. It sounds like the Capital One will probably take Texas A&M (maybe for an old Big 12 battle vs. Nebraska). They probably also like that they'll get the likely Heisman winner.

The Shreveport Times then says this:

The Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla., is next, and it is strongly in favor of taking No. 10 South Carolina (10-2). A logical place for the Gamecocks could be the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but that bowl is locked into No. 14 Clemson (10-2) as an opponent. And the SEC does not want a South Carolina-Clemson rematch after those two just played on Nov. 24.

Most projections I've seen have Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.

So if you believe what's above and that the Big Ten is more unsettled than the SEC, we're most likely looking at South Carolina in the Outback Bowl or Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.

Worth noting ----- It's very possible that all of this is wrong or premature.

Why even bother posting or reading, or being interested in Michigan football if you're going to automatically declare a match-up against SC a loss? It's a football game and anything can happen. We could beat SC. It's a good thing you aren't a coach. I can't believe the pessimistic fans on this site sometimes.

I hope you're right about the Heisman but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if it went to Te'o. Too good of a player, too good of a person, too good of a story, and he's on a NCG team to top it all off.

There seems to be conflicting information on whether we are able to be selected by the Capital One Bowl. Some are saying that Capital One is tweeting that Michigan is still in play because the contract is within one win OR loss.

We aren't eligible for the Capital One Bowl. The rules are pretty clear, and on top of that, the Capital One Bowl has said so via its Twitter account (after a misleading tweet suggesting the opposite). Adam Rittenberg wrote something about this and the Capital One Bowl confirmed that what he says here is correct.

So if we played Midwest Regional State instead of Alabama we could have been going to the Capital One bowl? That 2 loss rule is BS. Northwestern is rewarded for playing a crap out of conference schedule. This is just one more reason teams schedule non conference pushovers.

Seriously, we went 6-2 in conference, finished ahead of them in the Division standings, and we're stuck in a shitty bowl matchup because we played the 2 National Title teams and they played Syracuse (7-5) and Vandy (8-4)

Bowl selection committees will always pick Michigan over Northwestern if they have the option. We're a powerful brand name. We put asses in the seats. Northwestern doesn't. Northwestern home games are glorified high school games. Most people at the school couldn't care less about the football program.

Actually Northwestern had some of the Big Ten's only out of conference wins against BCS teams. They had 3 wins against Syracuse, BC, and Vandy. Obviously not powerhouses, but 2 of them are playing in bowl games.

Northwestern is not going to get picked over us. Their overall record is only one game better, so we're eligible to go over them (though not Nebraska). Our fanbase is much larger and any bowl will choose us first. The teams that will be slotted below NW will all be 7-5 or 6-6.

No way in hell that Wisconsin vs. Stanford is a push. Wisconsin will be lucky to keep it competitive. Won't be able to rush for 600 yards against Stanford. I wish Wisconsin luck, but they won't be winning the Rose Bowl.

I don't know - I would have said the same thing 5 weeks ago, but this Wisconsin team really really got destroyed by injury and by QB ineptidude and by coaching ineptitude. Stanford is a little overrated, and in my opinion; they don't have the kryptonite to this Wisconsin team. They don't have any gamechangers on defense and they don't have as much speed as, for example Taylor Martinez, or Mariota, or De Anthony Thomas.

I really believe that they're going to bring their A+ game for this 3rd rose bowl of theirs. They can't afford to let another one slip away. I think they win in a great game.

This is the other side of the toss-up coin. Although I think Minnesota will definitely win also. TCU is not good at all... they benefit from playing in a weak Big 12 schedule.. their record should be something like 3-9 on the season.

Florida to Sugar. Georgia to Cotton. Capital One gets first choice amongst SEC teams and they'll take Texas A&M (because of Johnny). Would have been cool to see Texas (likely in Cotton) vs. Texas A&M in a bowl game.

I keep seeing Florida to the Sugar Bowl and Georgia to the Chick-fil-A Bowl (vs. Clemson). It seems a little weird to me that Georgia would slide that far, especially after a good showing today, but we'll see.

Was #4 in BCS rankings heading into the weekend. If a team is ranked #3 in the BCS rankings and does not qualify for an automatic berth, there are guaranteed an at-large berth. Georgia might not fall that far but Florida will almost certainly move into the #3 slot.

But it seems as though you are. Yeah, who wants to see Michigan football anymore? Especially, oh what's his name Denard or something? play his last game EVER for the good guys? Along with the rest of the seniors... Yes please.

this is rediculous. Northwestern will more than likley be picked by outback bowl officials over michigan. Earlier in the day we were almost assured a capital one bowl game, now we get to go to the ghetto pitt in jax!!

let's be real here guys, Florida is hell on earth in general. Orlando, Jacksonville and Tampa are basically just different degrees of stankness

And one could mount an argument that, regardless of what their tie ins are, the Gator is a better bowl than the Outback. For one, the Gator's been around for a lot longer. And it doesn't have a shitastic corporate name.

Yes, and I'm sure Floridians couldn't easily retort with the fact that the University of Michigan is in.... well, Michigan. Home of Detroit, Flint, Dearborn, and Lansing. I mean, anyone in their right mind would rather live in any of those cities over Tampa, right? But hell, you can always come back with the usual, "But Northern Michigan is really nice for 3 months in the summer!"

"let's be real here guys, Florida is hell on earth in general. Orlando, Jacksonville and Tampa are basically just different degrees of stankness"

Says someone who I can almost guarantee has only ever been to those listed cities plus Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach. I thought the same thing, too, though, until I moved to Florida, so I'll cut you some slack.

The populated part, yes. Geography, no. It's kind of interesting to move here and realize that all of the vacation places (all of the places you listed) suck and there are great places that the vacationers just don't go to and know nothing at all about. To answer your question is tough. It just depends on what you're looking for, I guess. There are great remote and rural parts of this state that are absolutely beautiful that vacationers never go to, which, frankly, is great for the people who live here. There are also some neat non-vacationer cities. One perfect example, though, is St. Petersburg (categorically not the same place as Tampa, even though virtually everyone not from the area thinks it is). So many people go to the Tampa Bay Area, either flying into Tampa or going to Clearwater (or St.Pete Beach), and never know that St. Petersburg, itself, has great nightlife and one of the best waterfronts anywhere. Instead, they see Tampa (which sucks) or the beach areas (which can be tourist hell, although beautiful) and conclude that the whole area is the same, when it's not. My personal opinion is that everyone who says that Florida is hell, basing the on the tourist areas, is absolutely correct. I absolutely thought the same thing until I moved to the state the first time.

A team from the north playing a team from the south in their backyard, no thanks. The structure is old. I'd be more interested in playing in boise against a different conference than being a part of another big ten embarrassment with all eyes on the s.e.c vs big ten scoreboard, especially this year.

I seem to be hearing a lot of talk that Northwestern has the potential to be picked for the Capital One bowl or the Outback bowl, ahead of Nebraska or Michigan, respectively. Can someone please explain what the logic is behind this? Northwestern had a decent year, but when you compare their fanbase to Michigan's or Nebraskas... well it's not even close. In terms of TV as well as fans travelling to the game, Northwestern is a clear loser. Why on Earth would either of those bowls want them?

Only reason they would have is Nebraska was in the Capital One last year and just got blown out in a neutral site championship game. They might be thinking Nebraska fans just travelled to Indy and will not want to pay more money to see the same place as last year. I would still take a depressed and unenthused Nebraska fanbase over a Northwestern "fanbase" everytime.

I live in Orlando and had free tickets for the Cap One bowl IF Michigan was going to be selected. Friend works for Ticketmaster. Now it looks like the Huskers will be rewarded a better bowl, just after they got taken to the woodshed.

It looks like Jerry Palm has updated these predictions, and his guess is that we go to the Gator Bowl to face Vanderbilt actually, a (right now) hypothetical game in which we would actually be favored by about an FG per Sagarin's model. Of course, even this could be incorrect (he's never been 100% on all bowls), but we'll find out soon enough.

While Jerry Palm predicts that Michigan and Vanderbilt will meet in what some of us old timers would call the G-E College Bowl, he also predicts that The Backyard Brawl will be played at Yankee Stadium this year. Now, THAT would be interesting.

As long as Lewan can contain Jadaveon Clowney, we've got a shot. It really just depends on which version of South Carolina shows up: the one that annihilated Georgia or the one that barely beat a crappy Tennessee team.

I'd like the south carolina team that shot themselves in the foot, knee, crotch, chest, and face against Florida. Seriously, in that game Florida had something like 3 TD drives that were under 20 yards.

Has that ever happened before? Can't see that happening as if they do that they will end up in the Outback bowl against S. Carolina who they played in their bowl game last year. The Outback almost has to take South Carolina. The drop from S.Carolina to Vandy is substantial. South Carolina can't go to the Chic-fil-a bowl as Clemson is locked into that.

I really want to play against LSU or A&M. There seems to be a lot of comments hoping we play an easier team, but why not keep measuring UM football against the best? With the way next year's schedule breaks down, we may not play another ranked team until October or November of next season. Beating or playing close a highly-ranked SEC team will go a lot further than playing Vandy or MSU while losing to Vandy or MSU will be much worse than losing to LSU or A&M.

Yeah but they're still going to ranked very high, and since they only play Temple before us, they're going to be when we play them, and probably really high because everyone has a hard-on for ND's Return to Glory (trademarked)

One of the biggest reasons I thought ND was not going to be great next year is losing much of that o-line. However, looking at their depth chart, most of the guys that step in are juniors, versus underclassman, and most are still pretty good sized. All are over 6'4" and all are close to 300lbs. And they have another year to put on weight. Although not all of them are highly rated recruits, not that that always means a lot. But, I guess I'm not sure what to expect of this group. One the one hand they are all new starters, one the other they are all upperclassman next year and pretty good sized, although not all and high pedigree guys either. But, I do think the production of this group, much like our team next year, will define how good they will be as a team. For us, it's good we play them early as they won't have as much time to develop and will likely be better at the end of the year. Although the same can probably be said of us.

While I think we have a better chance against SC without Lattimore, they are still a tough matchup for us. Since we don't have a strong running game and they have a tremendous pass rush it may be difficult for us to move the ball against them. I think we have a much better shot against MSU, but a win over SC would look much better. I think I'd rather play SC assuming we have a respectable showing.

That kind of stuff doesn't matter to the portion of the UM fanbase that believes being pessimistic about our chances in any particular game is nothing less than religious apostasy. Faith is everything, evidence be damned. Michigan is 12-0 every year.

OK - so you're saying South Carolina is so scary because they beat Tennessee, Arkansas and Clemson? Who has Clemson beat? They played two tough games all year and lose them both. And South Carolina won 27-17, big deal. They also beat Tennesse by 3 points, and Tennessee missed a bowl.

Even with Lattimore, South Carolina barely beat Vandy, lost to LSU and got smoked by Florida. After the injury, South Carolina eeked out a victory against a bad team, and then beat two teams Michigan would totally beat. South Carolina looks like a Nebraska-level team to me. I don't think fans need to have the "Michigan will go 12-0 every year" outlook, but it's really annoying when fans talk about us getting killed against non-dominant teams.

"That kind of stuff doesn't matter to the portion of the UM fanbase that believes being optimistic about our chances in any particular game is nothing less than religious apostasy. Faith is everything, evidence be damned. Michigan is 0-12 every year."