As stated above, the recently passed tax bill has no direct impact on the Employer Mandate or the employer reporting requirements. Employer’s have asked, “Is the Employer Mandate next to go?” – not very likely.

Here are 3 signs the employer mandate will continue…

The IRS has begun assessing Employer Mandate Penalties with issuance of Letter 226-J – which proposes a penalty for the 2015 tax year. These penalties help fund the ACA premium subsidies.

The repeal of the Individual Mandate penalty places more pressure on the states, Marketplace and health care system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that 13 million fewer people will have health insurance coverage by the 2027 year – and that average premiums will increase by 10% in most years – as result of the individual mandate repeal. Repealing more of the ACA may worsen the landscape, and may not be looked upon favorably by some states which are already struggling to get their residents covered.

Multiple prior (high profile) bill failures in the House and Senate. The Individual Mandate was one of the least popular provisions of the ACA – thus, Republicans may feel less pressure to continue full ACA repeal efforts now that the individual mandate penalty is repealed. Additionally, there remains bipartisan efforts to pass multiple ACA stabilization bills, which will offset some of the impact of the individual mandate repeal. The passing of these measures may help the ACA gain further staying power.