2016 Nevada Republican Caucus Results – Open Thread

Nevada Republicans will caucus tonight to choose their preferred presidential nominee. The results will not come in until very late, possibly closer to midnight eastern time since the caucus does not begin until early evening in Nevada. Donald Trump appears to be the favorite heading in, however, anything could happen given that caucuses are unpredictable and polling is very sparse.

Donald J. Trump’s Republican rivals are seeking to make a stand against him in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, their last chance to slow his momentum before a dozen states vote on the party’s presidential nomination next week.

But it may be difficult to stop Mr. Trump in Nevada, where he has enjoyed a high profile because of his business dealings in Las Vegas and where only a small number of voters have typically participated in the caucuses.

Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida have established serious operations in the state, and both campaigned there in advance of Tuesday’s contest. They may once again be battling for second place rather than for a real shot at dethroning Mr. Trump.

That battle took on a sharply personal tone on Monday, when Mr. Cruz fired a top aide because he had spread a video that misrepresented comments Mr. Rubio made about the Bible. Mr. Cruz said he was upholding his campaign’s standards of integrity. Mr. Rubio’s team fired back that Mr. Cruz, not his aide, was the one with the character problem.

If Rubio were to win Nevada, for example, it would certainly reshape the race to an extent as it would break Trump’s winning streak. On the other hand, given that this is a caucus and not being held as a traditional primary, it might just reinforce the “Trump does badly at caucuses” narrative without actually changing the race. Most of the Super Tuesday states are holding primaries, not caucuses, so that bodes better for Trump.

Polling and trends are favorable to a Trump victory right now so that is what I would expect heading into tonight. An upset is certainly possible, given the way caucuses are unpredictable, but if the polls are anywhere near accurate, Trump could be holding as high as a 26 point lead which leaves a lot of cushion.

We’ll be updating this thread later in the evening when we start to get results.

Nate Ashworth :Nate Ashworth is the Founder and Senior Editor of Election Central. He's been blogging elections and politics for almost a decade. He started covering the 2008 Presidential Election which turned into a full-time political blog in 2012 and 2016.