With 15 million iPads sold in calendar year 2010, the new device has become a very important product for Apple. White noted that the iPad and related products and services generated $4.61 billion in sales in the first quarter of Apple's fiscal 2011, amounting to 17.2 percent of the company's revenue.

The analyst has given a "conservative" estimate of 27.36 million iPad sales in fiscal 2011, generating $16.92 billion.

I'm no mathematician, but how does less than doubling iPad sales equal a revenue jump of almost 400%?

Nevermind...I had to re-read it a few times before I realized it said "first quarter of Apple's fiscal 2011". I'm fighting a bad cold and running a high fever. LOL

You know I agree with you, and I didn't want to imply that iOS was inferior or in trouble, my point is just that Honeycomb fixes the 'scaled up phone apps' problem of Android among other things, and that competitors have access to powerful hardware, whether it be Tegra 2 or OMAP4 chips.

Well, yes and no, Honeycomb is _supposed_ to fix the 'scaled up phone apps' problem, and even though the way by which it should do this remains conspicuously non-apparant to me, I suppose it probably has everything needed to write applications that are at least as good as on iOS. But that's not enough, someone first has to do it.

Personally, I'm a really big fan of almost all Apple hardware and software, and as a developer I absolutely love the tools I have at my disposal to create great applications with. But I'm not narrow-minded enough to refuse to refocus on other platforms if they attract my attention. The WebOS slate for example might turn out to be a very interesting platform.

Honeycomb on the other hand, to me is just a whole lot of hot air for now. I don't like how it looks, I don't know what it has that makes it so great, and I don't see the strategy, determination and vision behind it that I see with the iPad or the WebOS slate. It all seems too much like a tool to serve Googles interest, which is conveniently adopted by 100% hardware manufacturers like Samsung and LG, who don't have the resources or intent to develop or maintain a platform themselves. HP invested (I think) $2 billion dollars buying Palm, which to me lends them some credibility (and the funny thing is that I absolutely hated everything else coming from HP the last few years).

Samsung, LG, Motorola, MSI, on the other hand, they have nothing but hardware and buoys marketing clearly directed at the wrong audience (people who like technology for more than just how well it works in practice).

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytdave

hey can now build tablets that are 'good enough' to be serious contenders to the iPad. There is no shortage of people who compare products by their spec sheet - they don't know any better. Apple has to stay on top of these things to stay ahead.

I think everything is there for Honeycomb tablets to be serious iPad contenders, but I'm still extremely skeptical if someone will be able to get all the pieces together and actually grab that opportunity. Right now, I predict the various Android tablets will mainly compete against each other, the hardware manufacturers will be fast to abandon their products in favor of releasing new ones, rush unfinished products to the market and alienate customers while doing it.

Someone needs to step in an steer Android in one direction instead of mindlessly repeating the 'choice is good, Android is open, anything is possible' mantra. In terms of building a platform that can reach critical mass, you need direction, vision, long term strategy, and execution. Since Google doesn't make its own hardware, and the manufacturers that do are only interested in selling volume, not in building the platform, I don't know where any of this should come from.

So summarizing, I don't think Apple has a lot to worry from Android tablets for now, no matter how good the Android tablet hardware is, and no matter how much potential Honeycomb has.

There is no shortage of people who compare products by their spec sheet - they don't know any better. Apple has to stay on top of these things to stay ahead.

Apple doesn't lag behind on specs with their iOS devices. They are always better than or at least equal to anything else on the market at the time of launch, unless you're talking about HDMI ports or SD slots or something. CPU, graphics and battery are always top notch.

Well, yes and no, Honeycomb is _supposed_ to fix the 'scaled up phone apps' problem, and even though the way by which it should do this remains conspicuously non-apparant to me, I suppose it probably has everything needed to write applications that are at least as good as on iOS. But that's not enough, someone first has to do it. Personally, I'm a really big fan of almost all Apple hardware and software, and as a developer I absolutely love the tools I have at my disposal to create great applications with. But I'm not narrow-minded enough to refuse to refocus on other platforms if they attract my attention. The WebOS slate for example might turn out to be a very interesting platform. Honeycomb on the other hand, to me is just a whole lot of hot air for now. I don't like how it looks, I don't know what it has that makes it so great, and I don't see the strategy, determination and vision behind it that I see with the iPad or the WebOS slate. It all seems too much like a tool to serve Googles interest, which is conveniently adopted by 100% hardware manufacturers like Samsung and LG, who don't have the resources or intent to develop or maintain a platform themselves. HP invested (I think) $2 billion dollars buying Palm, which to me lends them some credibility (and the funny thing is that I absolutely hated everything else coming from HP the last few years). Samsung, LG, Motorola, MSI, on the other hand, they have nothing but hardware an buoys marketing clearly directed at the wrong audience (people who like technology for more than just how well it works in practice).

I think everything is there for Honeycomb tablets to be serious iPad contenders, but I'm still extremely skeptical if someone will be able to get all the pieces together and actually grab that opportunity. Right now, I predict the various Android tablets will mainly compete against each other, the hardware manufacturers will be fast to abandon their products in favor of releasing new ones, rush unfinished products to the market and alienate customers while doing it. Someone needs to step in an steer Android in one direction instead of mindlessly repeating the 'choice is good, Android is open, anything is possible' mantra. In terms of building a platform that can reach critical mass, you need direction, vision, long term strategy, and execution. Since Google doesn't make its own hardware, and the manufacturers that do are only interested in selling volume, not in building the platform, I don't know where any of this should come from.

So summarizing, I don't think Apple has a lot to worry from Android tablets for now, no matter how good the Android tablet hardware is, and no matter how much potential Honeycomb has.

Not trying to rag on you here, but if you would add a little "white space" in your posts they would be a lot easier to read .... especially on "tired eyes" like mine.

I suspect you have a lot of interesting points of view ..... problem is, I get about 2 sentences in and find it difficult to "stay interested" as it seems like "work" to stay focussed. I will appreciate what ever you can do to make your posts more "readable". TIA ....

Apple, bigger than Google, √ ..... bigger than Microsoft, √ The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.

A ton of guys will be passing iPad -1s to their kids and wives and buying version 2. Just watch.

Not only that, all Apple products hold their value extraordinarily well. It's trivial to sell your iPad1 online and essentially get a huge discount on your brand new iPad2.
Can't do that with an Android product since they have no real value on the used market. Lot's of folks will be upgrading just for FaceTime capability.

iOS 5 is more crucial than the iPad2 device. There are many lacking features and annoyances in that OS.

I doubt Apple will release iOS 5 tomorrow -- the developers are still testing 4.3 beta 3 which hasn't been updated since Feb 1.

So, those hoping for things like home-screen widgets, better notifications, more robust multitasking, etc. -- will be disappointed.

However, Apple could preview/demo new iOS enhancements at tomorrow's event.

If the iPad hardware is upgraded as expected (Dual Duallys), Apple could exploit it by adding OpenCL and GCD to iOS. This would allow developers to more easily exploit the hardware -- new potential apps made practical, faster graphics, lower power requirements, etc.

This all takes time -- there are APIs in 4.3 that are yet to be exploited by developer apps (or Apple).

I am just not sure how these would be made available to developers -- a new 4.3 beta or a iOS 5 pre-release.

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

The fud-ometer broke with the remark about Apple needing to convince iPad 1 owners to upgrade to the iPad 2. The iPad isn't a disposable computer and Apple doesn't need to do that. In fact, it could bite Apple in the long run if iPad 1 owners feel horribly outclassed tomorrow. The iPad 2 isn't the end of the line for the platform--there's plenty of time for Apple to produce an iPad at an appropriate time for iPad 1 owners to upgrade.

Not trying to rag on you here, but if you would add a little "white space" in your posts they would be a lot easier to read .... especially on "tired eyes" like mine.

I suspect you have a lot of interesting points of view ..... problem is, I get about 2 sentences in and find it difficult to "stay interested" as it seems like "work" to stay focussed. I will appreciate what ever you can do to make your posts more "readable". TIA ....

No offense taken, I'll keep that in mind.

I've edited my post and paragraphed a little more if you still want to read it,

Can you find any evidence that andriod has even put a dent in AAPLs iOS profit? Andriod can gobble all the marketshare they want on the race to bottom with zero sum profit margins. The tablet game is different than the cell phone game. If the competition can only get their tablets priced competitively with a 2-year contract then game over.

Ireland is (as usual) so slow to listen and so quick to find fault that he tries to condemn BOTH the writer of this column and myself in one blow, which is pretty awkward. This column's writer is, in fact, not wrong, but misdirected. I have attempted to point out the needed adjustment (rather than just trash the guy, as Ireland sadly is bent on doing).

I love you too. Ouch! Untwist those knickers. In this case I believe the analyst is making a valid point, in terms of all the new tablets we know are coming this year. Apple needs to do something nice to stay ahead, which they probably will. But like we all are saying in this thread, the analyst is adding nothing we don't already know. That's all I'm saying. I think it's a valid point. And you're going for the jugular.

I have 1469 apps installed on my iPad occupying 45 GB of space. So the 59.2 GB (net) model seems inadequate to me.

You may want to put in for a Guinness World Record. How do you remember all of the apps you have, much less make use of them all? That's more apps than there are minutes in a day! As much as we all love our iPads, you might be ready for a little rebalancing in your life!

I admit to being a Fanatical Moderate. I Disdain the Inane. Vyizderzominymororzizazizdenderizorziz?

The fact that there are going to be a 100 Android tablet releases this year only makes Apple's life easier. Real competition will not come from 100 different tablets, none of which will ever get any significant marketshare individually, real competition will come from a single tablet that offers real and recognizable advantages over the iPad. Right now, none of the Android tablets seem to have anything going against the iPad except a spec sheet, and even that gap will probably be closed far enough to be irrelevant tomorrow.

If anything, 100 Android tablets hitting the market will fragment Honeycomb just like it fragmented Android on smartphones, up to the point that no single, stabilized hardware/software spec will ever gain critical mass to make it interesting to AAA developers to invest millions into something like the Rage or Unreal engine. There will be expensive high-end Android tablets like the Xoom or the Samsung thing, there will be cheap low-quality Android tablets from the likes of Archos or MSI, there will be dual-core ARM based ones, Rockchip x86 based ones, Oak Trail based x86 ones, some with a single-core PowerVR GPU, some with a dual-core one, some with Nvidia Tegra2 graphics, some with Intel Integrated graphics, some will get updated beyond 3.0, some wont, some will have better resolution than the iPad, some will have worse, 7", 8", 9", 10", and so on, and so forth. Just because there will be so much variation, the people buying these Android tablets will again not be able to enjoy any kind of application that really needs to get the most out of the hardware it is running, since every application will again be programmed to the lowest common denominator. Not really a problem for many applications, but definitely a problem for high-performance games, anything graphics related or anything that requires huge investments to develop.

Couldn't stop myself
to continue .. 4"( I guess when some one doesn't like to listen and put a phone OS into a tablet then who will stop him from doing the other way), 5", 6", 7", 8", 9", 10", 11", 13", 15", 17", 20", 27", 30".

Can you find any evidence that andriod has even put a dent in AAPLs iOS profit? Andriod can gobble all the marketshare they want on the race to bottom with zero sum profit margins. The tablet game is different than the cell phone game. If the competition can only get their tablets priced competitively with a 2-year contract then game over.

I think this is really the crux of the issue. If you have to pay as much or more for an Android tablet, which may be only 7", plus commit to a 2-year data contract, very few people besides hard core Android geeks and a handful of people who have conceived an irrational dislike for Apple are going to buy one and commit to paying at least the price of their tablet again over two years. Even with the 3G version of the iPad, you are not committed to pay for service every month, only when you need it.

And why would they with few available Android tablet optimized apps, and a lower cost option that's actually better? It's just not a smart choice and most consumers aren't that dumb.

I doubt Apple will release iOS 5 tomorrow -- the developers are still testing 4.3 beta 3 which hasn't been updated since Feb 1.

So, those hoping for things like home-screen widgets, better notifications, more robust multitasking, etc. -- will be disappointed.

However, Apple could preview/demo new iOS enhancements at tomorrow's event.

If the iPad hardware is upgraded as expected (Dual Duallys), Apple could exploit it by adding OpenCL and GCD to iOS. This would allow developers to more easily exploit the hardware -- new potential apps made practical, faster graphics, lower power requirements, etc.

This all takes time -- there are APIs in 4.3 that are yet to be exploited by developer apps (or Apple).

I am just not sure how these would be made available to developers -- a new 4.3 beta or a iOS 5 pre-release.

GCD is already there check session 206 WWDC 10. I agree it's not running on SMP right now.

Apple doesn't lag behind on specs with their iOS devices. They are always better than or at least equal to anything else on the market at the time of launch, unless you're talking about HDMI ports or SD slots or something. CPU, graphics and battery are always top notch.

Some analyst claimed that iPad market share would drop to 60% in 2011, leaving 40% to all the iPad competitors. If so, and if there will in fact be 100 iPad competitors, then each of those competitors will get an average of 1/100th of 40% market share.

Some analyst claimed that iPad market share would drop to 60% in 2011, leaving 40% to all the iPad competitors. If so, and if there will in fact be 100 iPad competitors, then each of those competitors will get an average of 1/100th of 40% market share.

That's 0.4% market share per competitor. Slim pickings.

That's 0.4% per device. Since Samsung, LG, HTC and others are likely to release multiple devices, they would have a higher share as a competitor.

Some analyst claimed that iPad market share would drop to 60% in 2011, leaving 40% to all the iPad competitors. If so, and if there will in fact be 100 iPad competitors, then each of those competitors will get an average of 1/100th of 40% market share.

That's 0.4% market share per competitor. Slim pickings.

More likely, there would be 10 surviving competitors at 4% market share each -- and 90% of the profit share coming from Apple's 60%.

That looks good to me!

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

Regarding tomorrow's announcement, I have a funny feeling they may pull a Mac Mini on us, and up the floor price by $100. Expecially now that they realize their competition can't match their price/performance ratio. But really, what's $100? I spent more than that on dinner with the family last Saturday without batting an eye. Spending that much more on a device I'd use daily for over a year? No big deal.

Doubtful. However it's possible - in considering the upcoming competition - they may have increased their own component cost significantly ("better" - not Retina - screen, more RAM, TBolt, zippier data and vid processing, one or two cams, etc.).

In that case, since they've likely fully recovered their "production experience costs" from developing iPad 1 and since those of the upgraded iPad 2 will be significantly less, we could see the "real" iPad 2 start at $549, with the original - maybe even with a front camera slapped in - sticking around at $449 as the base model - putting net even more price pressure on the competition.

(PS: Your "let them eat cake" view of the "nothingness of $100" is a bit cavalier for many Apple loving folk of modest means of my acquaintance.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sipadan

Amen to that. What kind of twisted logic brings analysts to portray Apple as on the brink of meltdown unless they somehow "prove" their upcoming IPad will be better than vaporware/half baked concepts that will for the most part never even make it to market?

Last time I checked I still have to see a competing tablet that delivers HALF AS GOOD an experience as the Ipad1, let alone the Ipad2, Dear analyst Sir. Maybe before pathetically trying to create a potential disaster scenario for Apple out of thin air you could actually evaluate products...

When any non Apple tablet actually matches the Ipad1, let's see then how far ahead Apple will already be Ipad3 at least (spoken like an analyst....)

Quote:

Originally Posted by res08hao

so if you eliminate cheap asian crap, how many are left? 2?

It might be worth pointing out that while MOST of the OS development and MUCH of the critical device engineering is (for now) done stateside, Apple's main products are actually built by that same Asian "Crap-Industrial Complex" (using many Asian-sourced components) - which is the same one which has eliminated or decimated many US industries, e.g., cars, TV's and too many others to mention.

Further, most of this happened with the US first starting to buy sub-assemblies or complementary products for their lines from Asia - which in every case eventually led to the creation of highly focused, tightly-managed, well-run competitors.

Software's the only thing which has kept an appearance of the US still leading the personal and mobile-computing pack - and while it's an art, Asian countries (including India with more English language speakers than the US, Britain, Canada and Australia combined, and decent to good engineering chops) are hardly incapable of learning it, and more and more coding is being done there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ktodack

I'm surprised no one has mentioned marketing. The people who follow web sites such as this one represent a tiny portion of the potential market. Most people get their information about consumer tech devices from television, newspapers/magazines and word of mouth from their friends. The IPad type device is still new to most people and IPad competitors can take some of the market with aggressive television advertising. Apple can't rest, it's not just neccessary to make great products, you must aggressively market to sell beyond the tech crowd.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytdave

That's a good point, but keep in mind that the vast majority of consumers truly aren't all that smart. They do no research, and very little hands-on. If a big-box retail sales person waves a shiny new object in their face and tells them it will solve 'world hunger', they will buy it. Most people don't understand or care about a superior product. The sea of Windows PCs shows this is true. Apple has to execute spectacularly with each new model, and they constantly have to stay in people's faces (marketing) to maintain their lead. The better product helps, but herding the sheeple comes first if you are to be successful.

The "mighty" can always fall. And in fact nearly always have. Whether GM or Rome, US Steel or the Brit Empire. Few predicted MS would almost destroy IBM when MS forked away from OS/2, even tho' that company has painfully re-invented itself over the last 20 years (after seriously considering breaking into five or so companies).

Invincibility is almost always illusory, and with the chief visionary's role at best declining over time, even the Phoenix that is Apple is always only an unexpected development or two from being knocked from its high-flying perch. E.g., another new device class emerging from a non-Apple source, political persecution from the EU regulators, a few product missteps, etc., etc.

It wouldn't happen overnight, but the surest path downward is for a company to start believing its own PR (and the cocky proclamations of its most dedicated fans). All IS fair in love and business war. And pride still goes before a fall.

Apple needs to constantly act as if it's under serious assault, and that product, research and marketing need to keep geared up like there's no tomorrow. Or there won't be.

Given peoples' fickle attitudes, I can easily imagine the word "disappointing" being readied for the iPad 2's debut: "The screen resolution is the same, and that's disappointing unlike the XOOM." Or, "It only has double the RAM of the first iPad, while other tablet offerings are 1GB. That's disappointing."

Prescient thinking, my friend, and oh so true.

I am preparing myself to be very disappointed and then maybe things will look better.

Yeah, I am hoping the iPad 2 has enough hardware to do a reasonable job of stand-alone video editing with a touch interface on a large (enough) screen -- iMovie for starters.

Dick, with all due respect, but you've got to be kidding! I have a 23" cinema display and I dearly wish that I could afford a 30"er as the 23 barely has enough real estate for me to do any kind of video or even still photography editing. Just thinking about trying that out on a 10" iPad gives me a brain freeze. If you can do it, my hat's off to you!

Dick, with all due respect, but you've got to be kidding! I have a 23" cinema display and I dearly wish that I could afford a 30"er as the 23 barely has enough real estate for me to do any kind of video or even still photography editing. Just thinking about trying that out on a 10" iPad gives me a brain freeze. If you can do it, my hat's off to you!

-Tod

Tod,

Here is what I am thinking.

1) For in the field standalone editing of video -- e.g. between haves or games (3 on Saturdays) f the grandkids soccer matches.

-- I've tried using a 17" Mac Laptop, and it is just too limited and cumbersome (extra batteries, need to use a table or flat surface, etc.)

-- I've tried editing video with the iMovie app on the iPhone . and it's just too small for my fat sausage fingers and my weak 71-year-old eyes.

The second one was done at the team party, immediately after the final game. The lighting conditions were terrible -- bright sun behind the subjects. Took the pics with an iP4 held over my head for many shots -- dead reckoning.

Then, during the party, imported the pics into the iPad and did a slideshow (if only AirPlay was available then).

Anywar we passed the iPad around for everyone to see -- sold a few people on iPads that day.

2) The second use is for the iPad to be a video graphics tablet and control surface (buttons, switches, sliders, etc.) for more sophisticated editing (rotoscoping, compositing, etc.). Hopefully the next release of Final Cut will provide for this -- there are some things that are just more natural to do with your fingers (and a stylus) than with a mouse and cursor.

It is possible that Apple could offer a Prosumer package, like Final Cut Express that allower the Mac and iPad to interact this way -- and what competitor could touch that?

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -