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SAN DIEGO  A new poll out today indicates San Diego mayoral candidate Nathan Fletcher’s big gamble may be paying off.

The SurveyUSA and 10News poll shows Fletcher’s support among potential voters doubling to 26 percent. The surge comes after Fletcher announced he’d left the Republican Party to run for mayor as an independent. For months, the SurveyUSA polls have shown Fletcher in third place behind City Councilman Carl DeMaio and Congressman Bob Filner.

The latest poll puts DeMaio first with 28 percent, followed closely by Fletcher at 26 percent. But Filner has dropped to third, with 20 percent of the vote. District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis is in fourth with 13 percent.

Mesa College political science professor Cal Luna said polls aren’t perfect, but have, historically, been more right than wrong.

“Something two months out is not definitive of what will occur in the election itself,” he said. “But it gives you an idea of how the horse race goes. And as the polls go, money tends to follow.”

Luna said with three candidates polling at or above 20 percent, it’s not likely anyone will win outright in June.

“With a strong three-way field splitting the vote somewhere in the 20 percent range,” he said, “you’re not going to see, unless something incredible happens between now and June, one candidate pulling it all together.”

Luna said Dumanis has slowly seen her support erode and she could end up playing a spoiler role in the election. If no candidate receives a majority in the June primary, the top two vote-getters will move on to the November election.

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