Number of Mexican immigrants decreased

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in San Diego reported a record increase in the number of local maritime detentions as those attempting to cross tried to avoid tightened security at places such as the San Ysidro Port of Entry. Nelvin C. Cepeda / U-T
— Nelvin C. Cepeda

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in San Diego reported a record increase in the number of local maritime detentions as those attempting to cross tried to avoid tightened security at places such as the San Ysidro Port of Entry. Nelvin C. Cepeda / U-T
— Nelvin C. Cepeda

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WASHINGTON - The number of Mexican immigrants living illegally in the U.S. has dropped significantly for the first time in decades, a dramatic shift as many illegal workers, already in the United States and seeing few job opportunities, return to Mexico.

An analysis of census data from the U.S. and Mexican governments details the movement to and from Mexico, a nation accounting for nearly 60 percent of the illegal immigrants in the U.S. It comes amid renewed debate over U.S. immigration policy as the Supreme Court hears arguments this week on Arizona’s tough immigration law.

Roughly 6.1 million unauthorized Mexican immigrants were living in the U.S. last year, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007, according to the Pew Hispanic Center study released Monday titled: "Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less." It was the biggest sustained drop in modern history, believed to be surpassed in scale only by losses in the Mexican-born U.S. population during the Great Depression.

Much of the drop in illegal immigrants is due to the persistently weak U.S. economy, which has shrunk construction and service-sector jobs attractive to Mexican workers following the housing bust. But increased deportations, heightened U.S. patrols and violence along the border also have played a role, as well as demographic changes, such as Mexico’s declining birth rate.

In all, the Mexican-born population in the U.S. last year — legal and illegal — fell to 12 million, marking an end to an immigration boom dating back to the 1970s, when foreign-born residents from Mexico stood at 760,000. The 2007 peak was 12.6 million.

Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew who co-wrote the analysis, said Mexican immigration may never return to its height during the mid-decade housing and construction boom, even with the U.S. economy recovering. He cited longer-term factors such as a shrinking Mexican work force.

He noted that government data now show a clear shift among Mexican workers already in the United States who are returning home. He said that data are a sign that many immigrants are giving up on life in the U.S., feeling squeezed by increasing enforcement and limited opportunities that they don’t see improving anytime soon.

About 1.4 million Mexicans left the U.S. between 2005 and 2010, double the number who did so a decade earlier. In the meantime, the number of Mexicans who entered the U.S. sharply fell to about 1.4 million, putting net migration from Mexico at a standstill. More recent data suggest that most of the movement is now heading back to Mexico, accounting for the drop in the illegal immigrant population.

During the same period, the population of authorized Mexican immigrants edged higher, from 5.6 million to 5.8 million.

Among the Mexican immigrants who leave the U.S., an estimated 5 to 35 percent are deported while the rest go back voluntarily, often taking U.S.-born children with them. Those who were in the U.S. illegally and returned to Mexico also are increasingly saying they will not try to come back — about 20 percent, compared with 7 percent in 2005.