The Trouble With Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi throws hard and works cheap. He just isn’t very good at getting hitters out. Since 2011, the 25-year old right hander has ranked among the “leaders” in both baserunners and hard hit balls allowed, but, that didn’t stop the Yankees from making him a key part of their offseason blueprint. Who needs outs when you can throw 97 mph and only make $3 million?

The Yankees didn’t trade for Eovaldi with blinders on. When the righty was acquired from the Marlins, GM Brian Cashman described him as a project who wasn’t “a finished product”. Joe Girardi has also referred to the right hander as a work in progress who “was learning on the job”. Although some fans, perhaps seduced by velocity, may have expected Eovaldi to be consistent and effective from the get go, the Yankees clearly set the bar much lower.

Given our current payroll and our current commitments, if we can find guys that have this type of ability and are cost-controlled and are in the arena that we can afford, it’s an easier fit.” – Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman, quoted by MLB.com regarding the Eovaldi trade

Eovaldi is an experiment, and it would be unfair to expect a sudden breakout after only a few months in pinstripes. However, a little bit of progress isn’t too much to ask, and, so far at least, the right hander hasn’t exhibited any. On the contrary, Eovaldi’s peripherals have regressed. In eight starts, he has allowed more hits, home runs and walks per nine innings than his lackluster career totals entering the season. If the Yankees are making any progress with their pet project, it hasn’t been evident on the field.

Nathan Eovaldi: Before and AfterSource: baseball-reference.com

As Cashman noted at the time of the acquisition, Eovaldi’s four years of cost control were an important part of the decision to acquire him. In that context, eight starts are inconsequential. If Eovaldi finally puts it all together and becomes a consistently effective pitcher into the next decade, the Yankees’ GM will look like a genius. But, is that a realistic expectation?

Since 1901, 177 pitchers have posted a below average ERA+ in at least 500 innings before their age-26 season. Of that total, fewer than one-third went on to have an above average career in at least 500 more innings from that point forward, and only 16 checked in with an ERA+ above 110. Sure, the Yankees can hope that Eovaldi follows the path of Chris Carpenter, Jose Rijo, Jason Schmidt and even Nolan Ryan, but the list of comps includes many more names like Scott Elarton, Andy Hawkins and Sidney Ponson.

Eovaldi Omens: Future Performance of Comparable PitchersNote: Includes all pitchers with a below average ERA+ in 500 innings before their age-26 season. Performance cited above is for all seasons beginning with age-26 (minimum 500 innings).

Source: baseball-reference.com

The past development of pitchers statistically similar to Eovaldi at this point isn’t encouraging, but as Cashman has repeated since the trade, “only time will tell” if the decision was a good one. Results are how trades get evaluated, so if Eovaldi doesn’t become an effective starter, the Yankees’ GM will have to answer for it. Unfortunately, it will probably be in response to the wrong questions.

If Eovaldi flops, that doesn’t mean the trade was inherently bad. The Yankees have an army of scouts, and if they truly believe the organization can unlock the righty’s potential, acquiring him is a risk worth taking. However, that’s not where the discussion ends. After all, what’s questionable isn’t the trade itself, but the team’s new philosophy of disinvestment that it represents.

The irony is the 2015 Yankees can’t afford Eovaldi. Even though his salary is low, the opportunity cost resulting from the trade was high. Working backwards, if the Yankees hadn’t traded Martin Prado, they wouldn’t have needed Didi Gregorius (assuming they still signed Stephen Drew) and could have either used Shane Green in the rotation or traded him for another player. The Yankees could have also supplied the deficiency in their rotation with one of several free agent pitchers (Edison Volquez, James Shield, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer), thereby freeing up Adam Warren to return to the middle relief role in which he had done well the past two seasons. All of this unraveling would have improved the depth of a team that has basically had only eight productive players. Of course, the Yankees could have also built proven depth around Eovaldi, but, in either case, it would have required a level of investment that the franchise no longer seems willing to make.

Despite acknowledging that he was a work in progress, the Yankees did more than make Eovaldi a cornerstone of the future. They made him one of the foundations of the 2015 season. That’s the trouble with Eovaldi…he is the symbol of a franchise plagued by contradiction.

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