D6 Factor - July 2008

The D6 Factor decreased slightly from –4.4 percent (measured on a year-over-year basis) in May to –4.5 percent in June, erasing most of May's small gain. (The historical trend growth rate is normalized to zero in the chart; numbers below zero reflect below-trend growth). The D6 Factor has shown a downward trend since early 2006. The current reading, which matches April's historic low, is about 1 percentage point lower than the previous two cyclical troughs in May 1991 and November 2001.