The State of the Trend

A little more than a month
ago we noticed the similarities between the current nascent rally and
the November '11 - April '12 bull run. After a shaky start, the upswing
is gaining momentum, and now is a good time to update the chart and revisit
some upside targets:

There are a few things that stand out from this chart.

The more optimistic target, should the analogy be complete, is 1530 by the
end of 2012. However, thus far the current rally is following a less aggressive
growth path, which places the upward target within the 1430 - 1490 zone.

From a medium-term timing perspective, September 4th looms as the next hurdle.

From a very short term perspective, the importance of the 1395 support level
can not be overstated. A break below opens the door for a retest of the lower
channel at 1360, which also happens to coincide with Hurst
Channel support: