AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

I’m starting this topic a bit early this Sunday due to the overflow of news concerning the release of the 3G S iPhone and reports about SJ’s health. How will all of the news impact AAPL’s performance in early Monday trading?

Signature

If there is going to be any panic selling, it will be noticeable in the PM. I wasn’t aware of the story until Saturday, but apparently the WSJ released it late on Friday, while the After Hours market was still open. AAPL rose another 30 cents, but I’m not sure those buyers were aware of the news. I think they were buying to be in for the iPhone 3GS.

If there is a sell off, I would expect the iPhone news to pull the price back up, if not on Monday, for sure by Tuesday. Especially if Apple releases some confirmation, and reintegrates (as they have been doing lately) that Jobs will return to work this month. If you think back to the days before the WWDC, you may recall the Steve Jobs sightings on the Apple Campus, Woz reporting on his return to health, etc.

As many suspect, the news release may have been a deliberate Apple PR tactic aimed at softening the blow to the stock price once the news was outed. I think they now have a need to follow through and make it all official, giving details, possibly having Jobs himself make a statement.

If there is going to be any panic selling, it will be noticeable in the PM. I wasn’t aware of the story until Saturday, but apparently the WSJ released it late on Friday, while the After Hours market was still open. AAPL rose another 30 cents, but I’m not sure those buyers were aware of the news. I think they were buying to be in for the iPhone 3GS.

I’m not so sure that the buying in the AH session was down to the iPhone, but more a reflection of what the futures were doing. There were probably a few shorts who got caught out and who were throwing in the towel just before the weekend.

So far today AAPL (and the futures) have fallen back. However, early moves don’t always give a good indication of how the rest of the day will pan out. It’s likely that the market-makers will yank the price down initially to see if they can get a downside move going, before picking up some cheap stock and walking the price back up.

Signature

Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

Kaufman’s checks with industry and supply chain sources indicate that the iPhone 3G S launch was a success, given recessionary headwinds and stiffer competition; however, it may not match the high level of 1 mln units sold in the opening weekend from a yr ago. Nonetheless, they are raising estimates as they were overly conservative in their assumptions as they opted to factor in a July month launch, a draw down in inventory ahead of new iPhones and some customer pause ahead of it. For the June quarter, they are now assuming 3.8 mln iPhones (from 3 mln). Firm is now modeling $8.1 bln and $1.17 (from $7.9 bln and $1.06) vs. consensus at $8.1 bln and $1.14 in EPS.

Apple announces they sold over 1,000,000 Iphones over the weekend. Didn’t most analysts only have them selling half that?

Yes. The announcement came with a quote from SJ himself: “Customers are voting and the iPhone is winning,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “With over 50,000 applications available from Apple’s revolutionary App Store, iPhone momentum is stronger than ever.”

Please note: one million iPhone 3G s sold in only 8 countries as opposed to the rollout last year in 22 countries!!! making it all the more impressive

And the fact the lines were not out of control this time, suggesting a tamer launch in unit sales.

Another plus is that, unlike last year, regular customers were able to enter the Apple store this launch to buy other things. The mania last year kept non-iPhone shoppers out of the Apple store unless they waited in line, which they didn’t do. Clearly, Apple learned a thing or two from last year.

Signature

As I said earlier in another thread this whole Press release of SJ liver transplant timing etc is being orchestrated by Apple. And they are controlling the news flow. And doing a damn fine job. I expect a huge day, certainly volume wise and probably price as the mutual funds should scramble aboard with these sales results. And the market in general is down. Hate to be short AAPL this A M