Don't you just hate spoilers? I do, too. That's why I always try to include warnings. However, I sometimes ramble a bit too much here or there and maybe a few (or many) key plot points slip without me giving proper notice. So I'd like to include a blanket spoiler warning for the weary internet travelers of the world: Here There Be Spoilers. You've been warned.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

S.E.C. 2012: A Look Ahead

I've presented to you the schedules (as they are now) and a few predictions.

Already the debates are starting about who has the toughest schedule: LSU or Alabama? Well, I'd say Ole Miss because they are a horrible team that doesn't stand a prayer against even a middle of the road SEC team or a BYU team having a shitty day. Ole Miss even got their asses kicked by Kentucky in 2011.

I say that Ole Miss is going to have at least an eight-loss season. Probably nine or ten, if you pressed me. Actually, my prediction of eight losses is probably generous and it really would take much pressing for me to say nine or ten. Ole Miss needs to go to the Big Ten where they could actually have a winning record and get a chance to go to a bowl game...

Now back to LSU and Alabama. Let's take a look at the throwaway games for LSU. LSU plays North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson University (who the fuck are they?), and Ole Miss. That's five sure-wins. That's means they only have seven games that are even remotely difficult.

Now let's look at Alabama's throwaway games: Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, and Ole Miss. Alabama clearly has the tougher schedule. Considering that Alabama opens with Michigan, a respected power even they have a questionable team, I think there can't be better way to start. In all likelihood, Michigan will be ranked to start the season so a win over them will already give Alabama a win over a ranked opponent.

Now let's look at the real games for Alabama and LSU. Alabama starts S.E.C. play earlier than LSU. Now LSU's S.E.C. games are more bunched up, but they play Texas A&M and then they have a bye week before they play Alabama. Alabama has its bye week much earlier in the season so that is another reason why Alabama has the more difficult season. Plus they play LSU in Louisiana.

Now LSU will need to rely on the back half of its season for any clout in the rankings. Since LSU plays Ole Miss the same week Alabama plays Western Carolina, LSU might get a slight advantage. Ole Miss was a two win team this year while Western Carolina only had one win.

But the more difficult schedule clearly belongs to Alabama. Alabama plays Michigan and then nine S.E.C. teams. LSU plays eight S.E.C. teams and a bunch of nobodies.

As far rankings go: Alabama will most likely play three ranked teams (Michigan, LSU, and Arkansas) and LSU will also play three (Arkansas, South Carolina, and Alabama). Now if Florida is ranked then LSU could have one advantage there.

LSU also has four away games while Alabama has five away games. So I better not hear LSU fans bitch and moan about what a tough schedule they have been dealt.

With the NFL draft shaving off of Alabama's fantastic defense and claiming Trent Richardson, Alabama's offense is going to have to step up. And I think that, if A.J. McCarron's brilliant performance in the National Championship game is any indication, the Tide should be able to handle their opponents with no problems.

So I expect Alabama to have undefeated season. Like I always do. LSU will have either one or two losses.

Alright, as you can see the schedules are incomplete for both teams. But I'm pretty sure that you can see that Missouri, joining the weaker S.E.C. East, is going to have it a bit easier than Texas A&M, a team that has been thrown into the fire of the S.E.C. West. Don't expect a plus-.500 season from Texas A&M. Missouri stands a better chance at breaking .500, but until their complete schedule is released I can't give you a more definitive prediction.

I just know that Missouri and Missouri fans are probably thanking their lucky stars that they are not in Texas A&M's position.

And another thing... it appears that the S.E.C. has another "Tiger" team. Well, I say we have too many fucking Tigers in the S.E.C. and so far I hate two of them. I haven't built up a hatred for Mizzou yet, but give that a decade and I probably will. Maybe two decades...

Florida doesn't stand a prayer against LSU so count that as a loss. The games against Georgia and South Carolina are in the air. It's difficult to tell who the favorite might be because Georgia made steps in 2011, but they couldn't beat Michigan State in a bowl game. So is Georgia really improving? Beats me.

The game against the 'Noles is also up in the air because I'm not sure how good Florida will be next year. Especially at the end of the year.

But they can certainly win the majority of the games on their schedule.

The Razorbacks get two freebies before they have to duel with the defending champs. Biased as I am, I'd count that one as loss for the 'Backs and the one against LSU could very well be a loss, too. Arkansas usually LSU pretty tough so I don't know. They'll win the majority of the games on their schedule and be in the hunt, too. Just like they were in 2011. But unless LSU and Alabama hit the ground with a thud... don't expect the 'Backs to make the S.E.C. Championship game.

Right off the bat Auburn faces the team that gave them their first loss in 2011. Not an easy opener. It's difficult to say how they might fare against Clemson. I see three obvious losses for Auburn, though: Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama. A loss against Georgia wouldn't surprise me, either.

And poor Kentucky... oh, wait... this is Tennessee. Well, they might as well be Kentucky. They could win four or five games. Remember the days when Tennessee was worth hating? It's pretty blurry for me when I try. Please get better this year Tennessee because it will mean so much more to me when my team kicks your orange and white ass on the Third Saturday in October.