Superbugs could kill 10mn per year by 2050, more than cancer – study

Superbugs with a high resistance to antibiotics could kill 10 million people worldwide each year by 2050 unless more action is taken, a study has warned. The figure is higher than the global impact of cancer, which currently kills 8.2 million.

The Review into
Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR), released on Thursday, found the
cost of tackling the global health problem could reach a
staggering $100 trillion a year.

Antibiotic-resistant bugs are currently responsible, or
implicated in, 700,000 deaths every year.

Former Goldman Sachs Economist and leading researcher Jim O’Neill
told the BBC: “To put that in context, the annual GDP [gross
domestic product] of the UK is about £3 trillion, so this would
be the equivalent of around 35 years without the UK contribution
to the global economy.”

Prime Minister David Cameron commission the report in July in an
attempt to raise global awareness of the growing problem, and
instigate more action from world leaders.

O’Neill said the problem would have the greatest impact in
counties in the BRIC and MINT blocs (Brazil, Russia, India, China
and Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey respectively). He hoped
the report would foster “bold, clear and practical long term
solutions.”

The report acknowledges that the human impact and growing number
of deaths ought to be enough to spark international action, but
says the grim economic forecast “transcends health
policy.”

Should the rise of AMR cause death levels to soar, the fall in
population would reduce global economic output by between 2 and
3.5 percent.

Modeling of the spread of AMR, by KPMG and RAND Europe, studied
three main bacteria: K pneumonia, E coli and Staphylococcus
aureus. These were selected from a pool of seven highly resistant
bugs flagged up by the World Health Organization.

They also found that HIV, malaria and tuberculosis pose a
significant threat to global health if resistant diseases
continue to remain unexamined.

The report predicted that in some developing countries, where
microbial resistance is already a huge problem, the number of
deaths would rise significantly. In India and China, AMR deaths
could increase to 2 and 1 million respectively.

The study warned that Africa would “suffer greatly” and
in countries such as Nigeria, the rate of AMR deaths could be as
high as one in four.

O’Neill said that there was scope to act, and said that with
proper support from the international community and coherent
global action, the bleak human and economic forecast could be
altered.

“With modern technology and the right focus and right
guidance, by trying to leverage the world’s greatest technology
for diagnostics, it would probably make significant difference to
the pressure for use of antibiotics,” he said.