On a positive note if Urbans guess is wrong we are back in the lead if a scholarship is still available. That's a big if and in the end Dunn gets screwed because urban just wanted to save face on nor losing a big recruit to us.

Well, Gene Smith did serve in the NCAA Infractions Committee. I am guessing he still has a lot of ties there. It is not unreasonable to expect that Gene Smith is well aware of what is coming down the pipe and he relayed that info to Meyer.

is that Smith's connections to the infractions committee aren't as solid as they were, but he hasn't realized that yet. He may be working on the assumption that if anything more were coming he would know; that assumption may no longer be correct.

If he does know, and he's allowed to tell recruits, after the NCAA gave Ohio an exception allowing him to "co-coach" while recruiting, and prior to any official announcement by the NCAA... then the NCAA just annointed Meyer and OSU untouchable.

This is very interesting. If the NCAA hands down OSU any kind of penatly above what was self-imposed, doesn't this make Urban a flat-out liar? If they don't hand out anything additional, well..I'm not expecting much, but I'm not expecting nothing.

If you are right that it's a business than it would be in the best interest if the NCAA to do nothing more to TSIO bc tsio is one of the only athletic programs in the country that makes a profit- therefore the ncaa will not castrate that cash cow even if it does have mad cow disease

The NCAA does not make any money off of OSU. The main source of revenue for the NCAA is the MBB tournament. They make no money off of football and have a contract for the MBB tournament that is not affected if one team isn't in the fold. The NCAA has a lot of motivations, but "they'd lose money from cash-cow OSU" isn't one of them.

According to the NCAA website, fully 90% of its revenue comes from TV and marketing rights fees, totaling some $700 million.

The stated revenue from championships is $69.5 million, or 9% of its total.

The TV and marketing rights fees that the NCAA can command are higher if the traditional major powers are successful, because of the audiences that will tune in. If OSU is 6-6, their share of a national audience is going to shrink, making them less valuable in the mix. It may be indirect, but I think it's silly to think the NCAA does not benefit from programs like OSU being strong nationally, and being strong nationally would be a problem if serious sanctions were levied. Put it this way, if OSU, UM, ND, Alabama, USC, Oregon, OK, Florida, and LSU were all simultaneously in the dumper, the brand value of big-time college football would be at least temporarily harmed.

The NCAA gets no TV and marketing dollars from football. There was a big lawsuit about it back in the 1970's and that's why our conferences set TV deals for football (and regular season basketball). What you're seeing is the NCAA allowing EA to use their logos in video games, and the TV rights to the MBB tournament. The revenue you see from championships are the ticket sales, and on site sales like that.

You could put a death penalty on all 120 FBS schools for one year and the NCAA would lose virtually nothing (absent the logo liscenses for video games).

people that there's no "cash cow" regarding big time football programs and the NCAA is thankless work. No one wants to believe it because it's not as good a story as believing the suits in Indy don't want to punish some teams because it would somehow impact the org's revenue. Point them to the NCAA's financials, and they're still not convinced. Bang head on desk.

USC will likely do more than that. They may very well sue. They are getting nailed for 45 scholarships for the actions of 1 player. The NCAA deemed they should have known, but still has no credible evidence they actually did.

Ohio is guilty of obvious failure to oversee, lying, and playing ineligible players their coach new to be ineligible.

They can't know for sure, but it seems likely that things aren't going to get any worse. The NCAA doesn't hide the ball if you work with them. They'll tell you if your self-imposed sanctions are appropriate.

1) He doesn't know. In that case, if Ohio gets pounded by sanctions, Dunn suddenly could become available again, depending on timing.

2) He does know. There's still risk to Ohio here, though, if the NCAA floats what the punishment is going to be and there's huge backlash and NCAA changes its mind and stiffens the punishment. In that case, Urban looks stupid and recruits could bolt (as in 1 above).

USC took a defiant posture with the NCAA and thumbed its nose at them throughout the entire scandal. They were known to have one of the smallest compliance offices in the country, and they didn't see it fit to bulk it up in response to the scandal. They also hired Lane Kiffin, who was on Pete Carrol's staff when the violations occurred. The heavy sanctions they got hit with were probably intended to punish them as much for their indifference as for the violations themselves.

While their initial response was pathetic, OSU hasn't been quite so arrogant in its dealings with the NCAA. Also, USC athletic director Mike Garrett was an NCAA outsider and had no established rapport with the bigwigs, whereas Gene Smith is a lifetime member of the NCAA's good ol' boy network. I have no reason to believe that they'll get hit any harder. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.

What'd you expect him to do? Say OMigod they're going to bring the hammer!!! This is what coaches do, they play down sanctions and say things will all be okay. Kiffin pulled the same when recruiting to USC basically saying that they were going to win the appeal.

Something more is going to happen to Ohio, it's just a matter of time and probably won't be what we want to happen, but PR-wise there's no way the NCAA can let them get away with a slap to the wrist. USC, among other schools, would come out breathing fire.

Dunn doesn't seem very intelligent. Hes being lied to of course and he won't fit as well as he's been lead to believe in Meyers offense. I feel sorry for the kid really. Meyer is just trying to secure his top players at all cost.

Think of how hard it would be for any of us to be 18 and in a place where it suddenly made sense in many ways to go to OSU. Dunn handled the situation well. He never trashed Michigan or made up some crap about them calling him "Tom." That's all we can ask.

I don't think he would lie about this to his recruits. Especially since all of these most recent signees can easily withdraw after the sanctions do or don't come down.

The amazing thing to me is that Meyer is apparently confident that the NCAA has no problem with him spreading the good news. It seems that this would be a huge image problem for the NCAA and they don't care.

I'm sure people can find great examples of him stretching the truth, but here's a whopper he told upon his exit from UF:

"But what I didn't want to have happen, and I made this clear to Jeremy [Foley], if I am able to go coach, I want to coach at one place, the University of Florida. It would be a travesty, it would be ridiculous to all of a sudden come back and get the feeling back, get the health back, feel good again and then all of a sudden go throw some other colors on my shirt and go coach. I don't want to do that. I have too much love for this University and these players and for what we've built."

I didn't say that Meyer wouldn't lie. I said he wouldn't lie about this because there was very little to gain and a lot to lose.

If he straight up lies to Dunn and sanctions come down, Dunn doesn't look back. If he tells Dunn he doesn't know, and sanctions come down, he still has credibility with Dunn and can work to overcome the sanctions.

If he straight up lies and no sanctions come down, Dunn stays committed. If he tells Dunn he doesn't know and no sanctions come down, Dunn commits.

Dunn isn't stupid enough to lie to a recruit for no reason. If Dunn were still an early enrollee, I might be inclined to think Meyer is lying and doesn't actually know. But since he is not, Meyer knows and is letting recruits and players know sounds infinitely more plausible.

You admit that Meyer lies. Yet, you think there is some reason that he wouldn't lie to someone about THIS, specifically. He has considerable interest in doing everything possible to get Dunn to reaffirm his committment.

There is no 'lose' in this scenario for Meyer. If sanctions come down, Dunn is out regardless. If Michigan believes that Dunn is off the table, and then Michigan gets another stud RB to fill his spot, then Meyer wins by virtue of not having to face Dunn at Michigan.

If he gets Dunn to commit before sanctions are announced, and then Dunn enrolls early ... well, guess what, Dunn is stuck. Meyer can't allow Dunn to visit UM because he knows that Dunn will probably commit. And yes, per Fox, Meyer is pulling strings to get Dunn enrolled early.

I agree. Make no mistake, he is a snake with big paycheck and will do anything to win. Including making empty promises to a kid that would be good for UM and bad for the fuckeyes. He is baiting him. Also, if Dunn does decide to stick with OSU, good luck to him. I hope he learns his OSU degree will make him supervisor at a reputable fast food chain.

Why on earth does anyone think OSU didn't just hire another senatorial-seeming snake in the grass like Meyer. He goes into a kid's house and puts up the front of the smooth talking big-timer, all the while filling the kid with half-truths and out-right lies. Shocking.? No.

Probably a good guess, combined with a good sales pitch. He knows there will be something additional, if only an extra year or two of probation. Probably has a pretty good idea there won't be anything serious. Carroll had a ggos idea what was going to happen and jumped ship at USC.

I thought this exact same thing. Assuming meyer isn’t lying and he knows whats coming, how the hell could the ncaa even pretend to do its job anymore? If this were the case, osu would be so clearly in the ncaa’s pocket that they know ahead of time the consequences they are going to face. That screams collusion. On the other hand, if meyer is just flat out lying to the recruits, and he has no idea what the punishments will be, that just makes him look like an utter dirtbag.

I don’t know. But this whole situation with osu vis a vis the ncaa is very upsetting.

Will not be punished for all of the reasons listed above. That does not change the fact that Urban is the second coming of the vest (he'll recruit, he'll win, he'll lie, he'll cheat, etc.). I'll take Hoke, Mattison, Borges all day. Ohio is going to be a pain for a while (as they should be) but they won't be starting any kind of runs soon.

P.S. No hard feelings about Dunn. I do hope he gets what he was promised. Oh and that he is 0-4 v. M.

Pay close attention to what Bri'onte says. Urban just "told" him what was up. He didn't say "Urban told me he spoke to the NCAA and we're looking good." Sounds like he's just taking whatever Meyer is saying and taking it as gospel.

he was saying that Dunn does not have to worry about the penalties, meaning they don't affect him. so under this hypothesis, there could be scholarship reductions but that would most likely affect future or walk on buckeyes or other players. there could be massive fines and coaching reductions, but those would only tangentially involve dunn. the only thing that would involve dunn directly would be a post season ban, which given the big ten lobbying to keep teams in bowl games and seems remote anyhow.

Even if we read more into Meyer's claim, I don't agree scholarship reductions would not affect Dunn. They hurt the team, and its ability to compete (not to mention to bring on more blockers for him to run behind), and therefore him.

It will be interesting to see Urban start spinning when he is wrong and Ohio gets hit hard.

What will Dunn do then?

The conversation will go like this:

Dunn: Coach you said we would be ok, what happened?

Meyer: We were told everything would be ok.

Dunn: Looking back on it, I don't know how Ohio could come to this conclusion. Didn't Tressel lie multiple times to the NCAA, didn't a whole bunch of players violate NCAA rules and then didn't some of the same players violate more rules in the summer.

is there any way that we, as Michigan fans, are overblowing the severity of infractions? This one has dropped off the radar from a national standpoint, given the issues that have since broke in Miami and Penn State.

Was firing the iconic Vest and a few scholarship reductions enough to satisfy the NCAA gods? Is it because the money and benefits received was small compared to USC and Reggie Bush?

I just can get my head wrapped around the idea that they shouldn't get hammered given the scope of improper benefits and apparent LOIC, but it may be because of my myopic viewpoint.

I agree other than that their compliance process was exposed as woefully deficient for a program of that caliber. In a sense I think they lucked out because players could have been getting away with far worse things.

From a toothless, subpoena-powerless NCAA perspective, I agree with you. But from a common sense perspective, we all know that there was a big blazing fire behind all that smoke ever since Tressel stepped on campus. From the recruits (like Clarrett, Troy Smith and TP) who knew they had free run of the place to the shady business person/fan hangers-on, I'll never be convinced there wasn't a systemic problem during the Vest's regime that gave OSU a huge advantage over us.

there was the original violation stuff of the players misdeeds and tressel's cover up. following that, there was the car thing, which seems shady but was "resolved" and proved to be legal. there was TP and his mates emptying the supply closet in return for cash, but i don't think there was any real evidence or record of this exchange. various other minor things have come up, the golfing and the envelopes of money from charity events, which was resolved to a degree with suspensions this year.

i think there is a lot of wishful thinking and a lot of smoke, but in the end i think it is just the tat5 stuff, which is still pretty bad, but without JT there anymore...

OTOH, remember that Posey got caught...again. This is when the NCAA pushed back the ruling and OSU docked itself some scholarships. I believe the NCAA also told Ohio that they faced failure to monitor charges at that point as well.

My understanding, though, is that Posey, et al. weren't overpaid by that much for those jobs. It doesn't seem like enough to cause major sanctions (especially given that those guys were already punished). As you say, though, it did seemingly cause the NCAA to add the extra charge, so who knows? I just know, this late in the day, that I have no reason to think that CRAIG JAMES KILLED FIVE HOOKERS AT SMU AND BURIED THEIR BODIES NEAR A TRAILER PARK IN FORTH WORTH. There is no reason to think that at all.

Posey was given a union job he wasn't qualifed to do (and presumably didn't, since he couldn't) and didn't have a chance in hell of landing on his own.

Or he was overpaid ridiculously, getting a skilled union wage for the job he actually did.

Your choice--either is bad.

On top of that was Posey's mother claiming the university was withholding paperwork that would have implicated them, not the players, in the wrongdoing--she said they'd thrown the players under the bus to save themselves from an FTM (which they're facing anyway as it turns out) or an LOIC.

He wants to go to ohio. He has been looking for a reason to do so all along. So he chooses to believe whatever (likely cleverly and ambiguously stated) report he got from Meyer on the sanctions. Let him go. I don't recall a blue chip RB on the '97 National Champions, but I do recall a dominant defense. Get us another CB or DL!

Or, honestly stated . Eff-ing NCAA. I would be sympathetic to the "Don't punish the current untatooed players and new coach for the mistakes of others" but for the fact that they have kept the horribly incompetent AD in place with a salary boost to boot.

We will be just fine without him. Did I want him and hear that he was going to UM? Yes. But that's not reality. I'd love to pick up a DB or another OL. Hoke and Co. know what they are doing. Besides, Fitz ended the regular season very well. I had my questions about him, but those were quickly forgotten. We will be just fine without Dunn

I have zero issue with Dunn. He was an Ohio commit to begin with. We didn't "have" him. We never had him. He was keeping his options open until he found out what was going to happen. UM gave him the answer he wanted to hear, and he re-committed.

That UM knows the outcome is pretty unsettling. Yeah, I know life isn't fair, and all that. But if this is the case - that certain schools have the NCAA in their pocket, that the NCAA doesn't do its best to provide a level playing field, etc and so forth - then it's the NCAA that should be investigated. Or the NCAA needs to present itself to the college world in a more honest way, not as some impartial governing body that preserves sportsmanship and ethics in college sports.

On this board at least, you really need to come up with another identifier for Urban Meyer.

"UM gave him the answer he wanted to hear, and he re-committed." At first I thought you were talking about us. He re-comitted? When did he comitt in the first place? Wait, no, oh . . . i see what you did.

You can't recruit guys to try to get them to transfer. USC RB Dillon Baxter alleged that Oregon contacted him and tried to get him to transfer when the SC stuff was blowing up, but nothing ever came of it . It ended up seeming like Baxter just made the allegation up, but Oregon would have violated an NCAA rule had they in fact contacted him at that time.

If any of our current recruits ended up being turncoats. I've been wrong before, but I'm not seeing that happening. Especially now if they go on any OSU board and see the names they're getting called - they're not gonna feel any warm and fuzzies to the hairless nuts.

I may be mistaken, but I thought Dunn was going to be an early enrollee. If so, Meyer's claims only need to hold up until Dunn starts classes, right? After that, he's hooked even if it turns out not to be a true statement.

the self imposed penalty was pretty pathetic and I would be very surprised if the NCAA goes with it. Even for as small as our penalty was they added on one more year of probation vs. 2 scholarships for about 3 years for Ohio. Heads will roll if they accept OSU's self imposed sanctions.

and Gene Smith's background and influence with the compliance dept., there is essentially zero chance for anything other than a limp slap on the wrist for OSU. Meyer knows it, the players know it, the fans know it, and the media know it. To pretend otherwise is just a kabuki dance to give the impression that the NCAA is honestly examining things. If they can't figure out if anything's wrong down at Auburn, they sure as hell aren't going to take any real meaningful steps in Columbus.

Emmert is going to preside over the final end stages of the NCAA, at least with respect to it having any real influence on major college football. It's the wild, wild west, and anything goes.