Here's the Decimation a Trump Trade War Could Bring to the Global Economy

Put that morning beer down, July 4 is over.

Yours truly is still feeling the effects of staying up too late the night before a workday after attending the Macy's
(M) - Get Report fireworks press party. Briefly made conversation with Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette, who was looking dapper in some slim-fit khakis, a blue button-down shirt and casual shoes. He is really growing into the role after taking over last year, and it's starting to show in the company's results.

Anyhow, investors return to the markets Thursday ill-prepared for the bottom to drop out when $34 billion in tariffs on China goods kicks in on Friday. And that's unfortunate because there is likely to be pain felt sans a last-minute reprieve from team Trump. So with that, the quotes of the day come compliments of TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins. If this isn't enough reason to move to cash or gold, I don't know what is.

Said Perkins on the effects of a trade war: "Economic growth would suffer, both short and longer term. Protectionism would hit the most open economies hardest, as has been the trend over the past couple of months. If we are also facing 'de-globalization,' then we are probably talking about a lower equilibrium profits share. In a world of lengthy, cross-border supply chains, many producers face serious disruption. Parts of the existing capital stock - which is what equity holders have a claim on - quickly become obsolete. A serious trade war would also raise inflation, at least temporarily, but we suspect this scenario would still be bullish for bonds. Since we haven't seen a wage-price spiral since the 1970s, rising costs are more likely to sap real incomes and undermine margins, creating a strong deflationary tilt. Central banks are unlikely to respond by raising interest rates and bond markets would also benefit from large safe-haven flows, even in a scenario where China weaponizes the RMB and sells U.S. Treasuries in an effort to control its descent."

#Bombshelter

Linkfest

Nothing like trying to support your stock market after a $2 trillion beating. The Xinhua News Agency ran an article on Wednesday reassuring investors that the valuations of Chinese stocks are already close to the historical low levels. Right. Meanwhile, major financial newspapers controlled by Xinhua and People's Daily published stories this week calling the ongoing declines irrational and overdone, and that signs of market bottoms are building up, according to South China Morning Post.

Here's one that has flown under the radar this week. Baidu's
(BIDU) - Get Report first 100 self-driving buses have rolled off production lines. Watch what they can do here. Can't wait to see these in New York City driving alongside CitiBikes.

Looking to make wild gambles on stocks despite the prospect of a trade war? Then here is a list of 10 large-cap stocks with at least 40% upside potential, thanks to Goldman Sachs. Reminder: Do your own homework on these companies as this list is designed to just get you started.

TheStreet's 'WeedStreet" is your daily destination for investing in cannabis. Yes, it can be done.

If Netflix
(NFLX) - Get Report wants to have any shot at sustaining the crazy run in its stock (up 100% in 2018), it will have to find new ways to raise prices. Looks like executives understand. Netflix is testing a new "Ultra" subscription of $16.99 in the U.S., according to CNET. The Ultra tier, which would be priced above its $13.99 "Premium" option, is said to offer subscribers HDR video.

The Call: What Trade War?

Goldman Sachs, often the commodities bulls, are out Thursday with a very upbeat projection on the space.

Said Goldman strategist Jeff Currie: "We maintain our bullish view on commodities, with a 12-month expected return of 10% (S&P GSCI), and view the current weakness as a buying opportunity. The pillars of our view remain the same: 1) strong late-cycle demand growth, with global GDP still tracking 4.0% despite the recent EM weakness and trade war concerns, 2) supply disruptions in key oil and metal markets, which are exacerbated by recent sanctions, and 3) depleting inventories, which is creating increasing positive carry in nearly all energy and metal markets with WTI currently paying a 21% annualized yield and only distillate and nickel in contango."