Russian artillery shells militant positions near the village of Duba-Yurt in January 2000 during the Second Russian-Chechen War (Image: wikipedia.org)

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s statement that his forces should attack anyone, “Muscovite or Stavropol resident,” who might appear on the territory of the republic and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s suggestion that the Islamic State is Russia’s main enemy may presage the opening of a third post-Soviet Russian-Chechen war.

The launching of such a conflict would give Vladimir Putin three great advantages:

A street of the ruined capital Grozny right after the First Russian-Chechen War (Image: wikipedia.org)

First, it would distract the West’s attention from his aggression in Ukraine and suggest to some in the West that Moscow is on the same side as the West is when it comes to Islamist radicalism, a shift that might be enough to end or at least soften the current sanctions regime.

Second, it would allow him to continue to exploit the patriotic hysteria he has generated among Russians with his Anschluss of Crimea and his talk of a “Russian world” while backing away from further moves in Ukraine or anywhere else beyond the borders of the Russian Federation at least for some period of time.

And third, it would win him new support within the Russian security agencies many of whom as the conflict over the issue of who is to be held responsible for the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov showed by giving them the opportunity to take out Kadyrov and his increasingly independent regime.

But if such a strategy has these advantages, it has some very real risks, two of which are especially noteworthy.

Russian soldiers next to a mass grave with Chechen militia and civilians during the Second Russian-Chechen War. Note the rope used to drag corpses behind the army vehicles from the place of killing to the grave (Image: Natalia Medvedeva, wikipedia.org)

On the one hand, few regional leaders have declared their loyalty to Putin more fervently than Kadyrov has. Moving against him would send a clear message that no one is safe no matter how loyal they may profess to be.

And on the other, in the event of a war, the Chechens will fight and fight well and they will have the support not only of others in the North Caucasus, including many in Daghestan, but also that of ISIS forces and their allies elsewhere in the Russian Federation and the former Soviet space, particularly those parts immediately adjoining Afghanistan.

One can only hope that such an internal struggle develops within Russia and another Chechnyen war results. Let the Russians and Chechens destroy themselves.

Brent

Look at how each time there is some type of ceasefire in Donbass, the terrorists start fighting among themselves and eliminating each other. Girkin and Borodai got pushed out. Same with Belzer and “People’s Governor”, PavelGubarov wasn’t even allowed to run in the November elections. Bednov was liquidated and there are other Cossack ‘warlords’ in Donbass like Nikolai Kozitsyn, Pavel Dremov,”Kosogar” and others don’t get along with Plotnitsky. The longer any ceasefire lasts, the more bloodlust they will direct at each other, and if they are ever pushed out of Donbass, they take all back to Russia with them and they’re going to be very unhappy if Moscow ever pulls its troops and support for them.

I think Chechnya is going to be a real problem. Fighters returning from ISIS and now the FSB is targeting local warlord Kadyrov’s little empire. Russia will be spelled K-A-R-M-A in the near future.

Sounds like you trolls are
1) getting too lazy to even come up with Western names for your avatar
2) start to realize how Putin is ruining your country…..you’ll soon be riding your mule to work if you don’t have to slaughter it to feed your family first…

P.S. it’s “Goble”….G-O-B-L-E….not Globe….

jeaniansimard

Not gona happened,There`s no war between kadyrov and putin.just words

jeaniansimard

wow,you are soooo smart!!!I wish i was intelligent just like you!!!Master Guest my everything#

About the Source

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. He has served as director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn, and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. Earlier he has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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