Drought

12/10/2014

I write up monthly crop/dairy related articles for a company called FCStone, eDairy and I thought I would share this month's article with you all seeing it's very interesting regarding the worst drought in over 1,200 years in California.

The state of California is experiencing the worst drought in at least 1,200 years according to scientists who analyze tree rings. According to the American Geophysical Union, it’s now drier in California than during the 1930s dust bowl and the historic droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. The scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and the University of Minnesota used tree rings to reconstruct the Golden State’s temperature and precipitation history dating back to 800 A.D., Washington Post reports. The method they applied was simple and vivid, with tighter rings on California’s oldest trees meaning dryer years. During the 1,200-year period, the researchers identified 66 droughts, which lasted between three to nine years. But none of them were as bad as the drought that started in California in 2012 and still far from coming to an end. Moreover, the trees revealed that 2014 turned out to be the worst single drought year in the surveyed period.

The current dry season was caused not only by low below-average precipitation, but also by record-breaking heat, which intensified the drought by around 36 per cent, the scientists said. More than 50 percent of California remains in exceptional drought. Bloomberg reports that water shortages as well as crop and pasture losses may cost the state 2.2 billion dollars this year and 428,000 acres of land left unplanted. Even with record rains, falling in California during the first week of December it wasn’t enough to seriously affect the situation. It’s too bad because more than a year’s supply of water has gone missing in the state’s reservoirs. It’ll take at least several unusually wet years to regain the losses.

What’s positive news? The precipitation outlook for the rest of this month looks above normal and there’s a good chance it will stay above normal through the winter of 2014/2015. 5-10 inches of rain could fall across the state between today and the 17th. The reason for the wetter pattern is called the pineapple express. It’s the non-technical term for a meteorological phenomenon characterized by and strong and persistent flow of atmospheric moisture and associated with heavy precipitation from the waters adjacent to the Hawaiian Islands and extending to any location along the Pacific coast of North America. The enhanced rainfall pattern is often present during an El Nino episode. There is an approximately 65% chance that El Nino conditions will develop this winter and last into the spring. So if El Nino conditions develop it will most likely be weak but even a weak one may help to enhance the pineapple express and rainfall across California.

12/05/2014

A new study says the drought is the worst California has seen in 1,200 years.

Researchers this week said a study of tree-growth rings indicates the current drought is the worst in at least 1,200 years. They compared tree rings with known moisture amounts to reach their conclusion, which was published in the the journal Geophysical Research Letters. I actually did a tree ring study during my senior year at Lyndon State College in Vermont. You can tell wet years versus dry years just by measuring the width of the rings. Narrow rings equal dry years and wide rings equal wet years. Each ring represents 1 year and so you can actually go back in time before climatological data depending on how old the trees are being sampled. So the fact that dendrochronological studies can be done for trees over 1,000 years old is pretty amazing.

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor, out Thursday morning, showed no improvement in the drought in California: 99.7% of the state is still in some form of drought. However, the cutoff date for data in the Monitor is Tuesday, so the full impact of this week's rain and snow won't be seen until next week's Monitor. Pineapple Express storms are Pacific systems carrying moisture off the ocean that come from the direction of Hawaii.

Typically, about one-half of California's annual precipitation is expected to fall during the December-February season, the Drought Monitor noted. However, more than this is needed to offset the accumulated deficits.

Alabama is still dealing with some drought conditions too, but nothing compared to the impact in California. While improvement has occurred across central Alabama, the drought isn't getting any better across parts of east and south Alabama.

We have rain in the forecast tonight into Saturday. The system to our west moves in during that time frame bringing a dose of wet weather. The initial mode of the wet weather moving in tonight will be more convective hence heavier in nature leading to higher amounts occurring across north central Alabama. That's where a better chance for thunder exits. Over time, the intensity lets up as the activity slides southeastward on Saturday.

POTENTIAL TIMING OF RAIN:

NW Corner after 8PM:

Along I-20 Corridor By 7AM:

Ligher but lingering shower chance for Christmas parades:

Showers Exit Southeast During the Early PM:

I know it says 30% in the banner but that's for Friday evening. There's a 60% chance on Saturday and the greatest chance is between 8PM Fri-2PM Sat northwest to southeast.

Much drier by Sunday with seasonable temperatures from Sunday on. Normal high is 59° and the normal low this time of year is 38°.

We need rain and .50" to 1" is possible on Sunday especially to the south of I-20 and 1-3" is possible across south Alabama. Thunder is also in the forecast along the immediate Gulf Coast but the rest of Alabama should just expect a plain old cold rain.

TIMING THE RAIN: This information is as of Wednesday afternoon which means we might have to adjust the timing once the short term models are available that far out.

By noon, arriving across west Alabama...

Spreading eastward and reaching the I-65 corridor by 3PM...

Rain arrives across east Alabama by the evening hours...

The heaviest of the rain arrives late at night and lingers through the early morning hours on Monday.

Notice the blue zone to the south of I-20, that's where the heaviest is expected.

Rain exits by the early afternoon hours on Monday...

There is still uncertainty regarding the chance for a few wet snowflakes mixing in across north Alabama on Sunday night into Monday morning as the precipitation exits and colder air filters in. The NWS in Huntsville is forecasting a 40% chance of a rain/snow mix and that seems reasonable at this point. Best chance of this happening is to the north of the Fox 6 viewing area as of now, especially across Madison and Jackson counties.

One thing to note is that forecast soundings for Sunday morning indicate a brief window for freezing rain/sleet. There is a slight possibility across far west Alabama, if precipitation were to start in the morning hours that there would be a tiny window for ice pellets. The atmosphere at the surface is forecast to be very dry and also for temperatures to be slightly above freezing. Moisture falling into a dry atmosphere will cause it to evaporate which is a cooling process which can in turn cause the air to cool enough for the precipitation to change over to ice. This could happen or evaporation dominates completely and nothing falls at the surface.

Here is the forecast sounding for Russellville, AL on Sunday AM:

Blue line is the wet bulb temperature or the temperature after evaporation. There is about a 3 hour window for mixed precipitation IF any can make it to the ground. One 1 model run goes this far out so we are not currently forecasting this, but definitely monitoring trends.

So yes, there are several things we will be monitoring in the coming days. Stay tuned for additional updates as we track this developing storm system.

08/28/2014

We are tracking a trough to the west and tropical moisture that will be on the increase as the weekend approaches. The two combined will result in the development of scattered showers and storms. The greatest chance for rain is on Saturday and then rain chances lower as we near Labor Day.

Drought conditions continue to expand and worsen across the state. A new area of moderate drought has developed across portions of Clay and Tallapoosa counties and a small portion of Coosa, Randolph and Chambers. Rainfall for the year is below by a little over two inches in Anniston, almost five inches in Birmingham and close to two inches in Tuscaloosa.

You may have to adjust your outdoor plans this upcoming Labor Day Weekend and or bring rain gear to any outdoor event, game etc. you are attending. The timing is poor but we need the rain and computer models indicate the possibility of some areas getting up to one inch by Sunday morning.

TIMING THE RAIN CHANCES:

Saturday morning: A few passing showers are possible, otherwise dry. Best chance will be along and to the west of the I-59/I-20 corridor.

Saturday afternoon: The steadiest zone of precipitation sets up across the northwest corner of the state and it could be quite a damp day across Marion county for example. East of the main rain axis, we'll see more scattered showers and storms developing and tracking from southwest to northeast.

That's the wet weather scoop as of Thursday morning! We'll continue to keep you updated as we get new information. For now, continue to water the lawn and garden!

08/14/2014

Despite the rainfall we received last week and so far this month, it wasn't enough to make a dent in the drought situation. Moderate drought conditions actually expanded and now includes parts of eastern Tuscaloosa, Shelby and Bibb counties. Abnormally dry conditions expanded slightly in all directions too.

Here's a look at the scene in Bessemer and the grass certainly looks like it needs some water. Many lawns across the state look like this. Remember, if you plan on doing any watering that you do it either early in the morning or in the evening. The air is quite dry and so evaporation is high during the afternoon and higher than normal than compared to a muggy day so expect to give the lawn and garden a good soaking.

When is our next best chance for rain? Not until early next week.

Looking at the chart below, you'll see rainfall is highest during the spring and late fall in Birmingham and that amounts on average drops off between August until October. This is not a good statistic seeing rainfall is already running below normal. The outlook for precipitation over the next 3 months calls for equal chances for at, below or above normal precipitation, which doesn't really tell us that much. All and all, we just have to be patient and try and do as much watering as we can until Mother Nature decides to provide.

08/07/2014

Finally some heat relief is popping up though it's localized! So far this afternoon shower and storm development has been focused across Tuscaloosa, Hale and Bibb counties. Cell motion is to the ENE at about 10 mph. They are slow movers and heavy rainfall producers. Clouds and rain cooled air has dropped temperatures in those counties into the middle 80s to lower 90s.

The pattern shifts as the weekend approaches to a slightly cooler and wetter one. Additional clouds and rain nearby will hold back temperatures from reaching extreme levels. Showers and storms each afternoon will be scattered in nature, meaning the probability of most areas seeing at least one passing shower or storm over the next few days is high. It may be tricky trying to plan whether or not you have a pool party for the kids this weekend. All and all, the driest weather will be before noon and then you'll have to dodge showers and storms through the early evening hours before activity fades. Good luck planning outdoor activities! Just have a plan B. if you do desire to be outside. Remember if the thunder roars to go indoors.

Abnormally dry conditions continue to expand across central Alabama and moderate drought persists across Jefferson county. Rainfall amounts for the year and month are running below normal and so the increased chance for rain over the next few days is certainly timely.

So get ready to see more clouds like these in Bessemer over the next several days! Yay for cumulonimbus clouds!!! We love the kind that produce rain!!! :)

08/02/2014

July is one of the wetter months in Alabama but not this year and due to the 2-3" deficit, drought conditions have developed.

Despite a trough of low pressure across the eastern U.S. organized rain has yet to move over the drought stricken areas. VIPIR is fairly quiet but that may change this afternoon.

RPM Computer Model shows scattered showers and storms developing this afternoon and lingering through the early evening hours. Not everyone will see a passing shower or storm and if you don't by sunset, then water your lawn and garden.

Rain chances back off even more tomorrow with the greatest threat setting up closer to a stalled out front along the Gulf Coast.

The best chance for a passing shower or storm is today and then the chances drop off dramatically as the upcoming week approaches. Rain chances decrease this upcoming week and temperatures increase. By Wednesday, highs could be in the middle 90s.

07/31/2014

Abnormally dry conditions expands after another week of very little rain and moderate drought conditions have officially set in across parts of Jefferson county.

Here's the write up from the Climate Prediction Center:

Southeast

Hit-or-miss showers dotted the region, resulting in a mix of deterioration and improvement. Moderate drought was introduced in a few areas, including parts of western Kentucky, central Alabama, and southern Georgia.

USDA commentary for south-central Georgia for the week ending July 27 indicated that hot, dry weather is “taking a toll on crops. Cotton and peanuts are at a critical stage of water requirements in order to make yield. Corn needs rainfall... Hay and pastures need rain for [the] next cutting.” From June 1 – July 29, rainfall totaled less than half of normal in locations such as Tallahassee, Florida (6.13 inches, or 42.6% of normal), and Valdosta, Georgia (6.08 inches, or 49.6%). Substantial June 1 – July 29 rainfall deficits were also noted in locations such as Bowling Green, Kentucky (4.25 inches, or 53% of normal), and Birmingham, Alabama (5.73 inches, or 64%). Topsoil moisture shortages became more acute in some areas, rated 51% very short to short in Kentucky by July 27. Other Southeastern States reporting topsoil moisture at least one-quarter very short to short were South Carolina (44%), Virginia (33%), Georgia (32%), and Arkansas (27%).

05/12/2013

When it comes to weather there are always highs and lows. Its hard to believe that nearly six full years have passed since the historic drought of 2007. The drought conditions in 2007 where catapulted by a 2006 statewide annual deficit of 12 inches. It was labeled as the worst drought in 50 years. The drought was most severe in eastern sections of our state. I remember driving east on I-20 and seeing dry ground under boat docks along the banks of Logan Martin. The water shortage was so severe that some cities feared water reserves would be depleted. (Image-Dry Lake Bed-Source: NOAA)

When we think about drought the first things that come to mind are water restrictions and impacts on agriculture. However drought’s actually come in different forms. First there are meteorological droughts which involve the short term deficits in precipitation. If the deficits persist we begin to experience hydrological drought in which waterways and water supplies are impacted. The third form is agricultural drought followed by socioeconomic drought. Alabama experienced all four levels of drought which continued into 2008.

Earlier this week we were discussing flood warnings along the Coosa River. It always amazes me how there are highs and lows when it comes to weather. While it seemed like we would never see a rebound in precipitation at the time, the persistent meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic drought conditions are now in the history books. Recently Alabama Climatologist John Christy released his summary for March and April stating that the last time Alabama had so little sign of drought was in June 2010.

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