The Independent Commission on Fees – set up to track the effects of the new funding regime – warned that students were most likely to be put off in England, where fees are higher than elsewhere in the UK.

It insisted that declines in application rates to the most sought-after universities were higher among students from middle and upper-class backgrounds who are less likely to benefit from a generous system of grants and bursaries.

In a damning conclusion, researchers insisted there was “initial evidence that higher tuition fees are having a measurable impact” on student choices.

The comments come just weeks before hundreds of thousands of students across the UK start university for the first time under the new tuition fees regime.

English students face paying up to £9,000-a-year, although those from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive free or highly-subsidised tuition.

Will Hutton, principal of Hertford College, Oxford, and former head of the Work Foundation, who is chairing the commission, said: “Although it is too early to draw any firm conclusions, this study provides initial evidence that increased fees have an impact on application behaviour.

“There is a clear drop in application numbers from English students when compared to their counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

"We are pleased to see that at this stage there has been no relative drop-off in applicants from less advantaged neighbourhoods.”

The commission was established in January with backing from organisations such as the Sutton Trust, a social mobility charity, to monitor the effects of fees. The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas) has provided data to the commission although it is not formally linked.

In today’s study, researchers compared application figures in 2010 – before plans for the new payments regime was announced – with those of 2012.

It emerged that the total number of people applying to English universities has fallen from 421,448 to 384,170 – a drop of almost nine per cent.

Among school-leavers aged 18 and 19, numbers fell from 298,155 in 2010 to 276,629 in 2012, with researchers claiming that the decline could only be partly explained by a reduction in the total number of young people in the UK.

The commission said: “Around one person in 20 who would have been expected to apply to university in 2012 if the recent trend of increasing application rates among 18-years-olds in England was maintained did not do so. This equates to approximately 15,000 ‘missing’ young applicants.”

A spokeswoman for the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills said: “The proportion of English school leavers applying to university is the second highest on record and it’s still not too late to apply.

"However, even with a small reduction in applications, this will still be a competitive year like any other as people continue to understand that university remains a good long term investment in their future.”

But Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, said: “Young people not applying for university have few other opportunities with levels of high unemployment and the difficulty securing other forms of education or training.

“We need to be investing in our young people, not directing them towards a lengthy dole queue.”