"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 9 July 2016

US jobs are back

US payrolls rebound

The US economy added a whopping +287,000 jobs in June, easily beating market expectations of +175,000.

A bit worryingly, the May result was revised down from +38,000 to just +11,000, but April was revised up from +123,000 to +144,000.

Average gains for the past three months improved and now sit just above +147,300.

Total payrolls are now 2.4 million higher than one year ago.

The average monthly payrolls gain in 2016 is now +171,500, some way down from the rampant average gains in 2014 of +259,600.

The unemployment rate ticked back up from 4.7 per cent to 4.9 per cent (market analysts had expected 4.8 per cent).

Average hourly earnings were up by 2 cents to $25.65, and are up by $0.65 or 2.6 per cent over the year to June. Wages growth may now just be picking up, according to Yellen.

Overall the market still doesn't expect to see the US hike interest rates again this year after the dire May result - priced at about a one in four chance - while the cash rate is expected to be cut again in Australia.