Rasmussen: McCain 48, Hillary 40; McCain 47, Obama 41

posted at 12:43 pm on January 30, 2008 by Allahpundit

Also known as “the other reason to prefer McCain.” Don’t take the Obama poll too seriously: I think the only candidate left on either side who can beat him is Hillary. Like Steyn says, Romney has no narrative and a contest of “young, gifted, and black vs. old, cranky, and weathered” does not redound to our advantage. Obama’s dynamism on the stump plus the media halo he’ll be wearing plus the left’s inevitable bad-faith eagerness to turn each and every Republican criticism of him into a coded racial attack (see, e.g., the distortion of Clinton’s “fairy tale” comment) makes for very long odds. It’s Hillary or bust, baby.

So let’s take your temperature with another meaningless, predictable blog poll. You’re all angry this morning about McCain winning so we’re going to get probably ~40% voting “stay home,” even though 90% of those people will turn out for Maverick anyway after they’re fed a steady diet this summer of Democratic slanders and reminders that no, in fact, when it comes to the war — which much of the base claims is its top concern — Hillary Clinton does not equal John McCain. The CW among McCain-haters is that if we’re going to elect someone with a disastrous liberal domestic agenda we might as well make it a Democrat so that the Republican brand isn’t tainted by association. But even if you’re willing to flush Iraq down the toilet, is that true? Congress will share the blame and they’ll be deep blue, and McCain is already sufficiently vilified as a RINO within the party that any leftish moves can be dismissed as “we told you so.” If the worst comes to pass and he betrays conservatism in office, it’s not so much a fatal corruption of Republicanism as it is “proof” that centrists can’t be trusted and the next wave needs to get back to basics. And with McCain, contra Hillary, there’s at least a chance of exerting some influence over him. Yeah, he wants amnesty, but political circumstances may be such the next time it comes up that he has to veto it because he needs the support of the base on some other policy matter. None of which is to say he should be preferred to Romney, only that he should be preferred to a Democrat. But go ahead and take the poll(s) because I know you’re dying to scratch that “stay home” itch. Troops out by 2009!

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Well, given the choice between a liberal Democrat who’s a woman, a liberal Democrat who’s black, and a liberal Democrat who claims he’s a Republican, I guess I’ll side with the one with the most military service. But it’s not a tasty pill.

I voted staying home on both, but realistically as you said if it was a reasonably close race I would definitely vote for McCain against Hillary, on the basis of the war. Against Obama, however, it won’t even be close and I would stay home in symbolic protest.

And with McCain, contra Hillary, there’s at least a chance of exerting some influence over him. Yeah, he wants amnesty, but political circumstances may be such the next time it comes up that he has to veto it because he needs the support of the base on some other policy matter.

“He will be better, he promised me. The hitting will stop. It’s the alcohol really. And me, I just make him so mad sometimes…”

Any conservative that pulls the lever for McCain is being a hypocrite. If one can look themself in the mirror after betraying everything they believe in for a false hope of winning the White House they should go into politics, not watch it. They certainly have the convictions for it, or more truthfully, the lack thereof.

McCain is a surrogate candidate. I dont like McCain for his poitical stances. I dont like McCain for his behavior.

So I wont be voting FOR john McCain I will vote for what John McCain represents.

The Democrats have during a time of war run an ex wife of a former president and a one term clueless senator with no experience.

McCain has wonr the Uniform. He has sacrificed for this country. McCain will be a surrogate for all those in the US military who would have been demonized by those backing the democratic candidates.

I wont be voting FOR McCain. I will be voting for General Petraeus. I will be voting for General Odenierno. I iwll be voting for Micheal Yon. I will be voting for all those men and women who have sacrificed so much to give us victory in the WOT.

McCain promises to keep fighting. He wont take away thier chance to win the war. He would also give them better veterans benefits and better equiptment.

So I will not be voting for McCain. I will use him as a surrogate to stand in for all those in the US military who DESERVE not to have victory stolen from them by our politicians. I will vote to reward them for standing up for us in this time of trouble.

I will vote to make the US military stronger. They have my vote and McCain needs to thank them for that.

Against Obama, however, it won’t even be close and I would stay home in symbolic protest.

Patriot33 on January 30, 2008 at 12:50 PM

Hillary would be better for the war than Obama. The only perspective this stance makes sense from is the scorched earth one–better to suffer four years of unmitigated Obama disaster for four years in hopes of waking up the American people so that they’ll vote more wisely in the future.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to me that disaster actually serves to wake the American people.

I’m so contrarian that I’m not only abstaining from voting McCain in November, I’m not voting in this Hot Air poll.

I see your “stay home” and raise you a “not clicking”.

That said, I suspect that AP is correct that most of those who say they’ll stay home in November will end up pulling the lever for McCain either out of revulsion for the Dem, guilt, loyalty or because the McCain campaign wore them down.

McCain all the way. We need to stay in Iraq and insist on changing the culture of Muslims in that region. We must continue to bring civilization there: democracy, liberty, free markets. McCain will do that; neither Hillary nor Obama will. End of story. Otherwise, you learned nothing when 2700 people were incinerated to death on September 11th.

I voted staying home on both, but realistically as you said if it was a reasonably close race I would definitely vote for McCain against Hillary, on the basis of the war. Against Obama, however, it won’t even be close and I would stay home in symbolic protest.

Patriot33 on January 30, 2008 at 12:50 PM

Yet it appears that Obama is even worse than Hillary on Iraq- he wants to pull out yesterday.

The Dem will win in MN like the Dem always wins MN, so I won’t feel too guilty about staying home.

I will use him as a surrogate to stand in for all those in the US military who DESERVE not to have victory stolen from them by our politicians. I will vote to reward them for standing up for us in this time of trouble.

Well said. That’s the only reason I’d vote for McCain – the troops in the field.

I still don’t know what I’d do in a general. If I did vote for McCain, which I really can’t see right now because I’m so pissed and I really HATE McCain, I hate Hillary even more. There are all the troops and people that I know who have given the ultimate sacrifice for this war.
When the time comes, I will never admit what I did and never speak of it. I’m really sick of these lesser of 2 evil choices. I they would just legalize it so I could go through the next 8 years stoned and oblivious.

Also known as “the other reason to prefer McCain.” Don’t take the Obama poll too seriously: I think the only candidate left on either side who can beat him is Hillary. Like Steyn says, Romney has no narrative and a contest of “young, gifted, and black vs. old, cranky, and weathered” does not redound to our advantage. Obama’s dynamism on the stump plus the media halo he’ll be wearing plus the left’s inevitable bad-faith eagerness to turn each and every Republican criticism of him into a coded racial attack (see, e.g., the distortion of Clinton’s “fairy tale” comment) makes for very long odds. It’s Hillary or bust, baby.

Yes, the old “electability card” that McVain voters are playing, and they’re being played for suckers by these very polls. Doesn’t seem that long ago that we were laughing at the Democrats for picking their nominee based on “electability”.

That said, I suspect that AP is correct that most of those who say they’ll stay home in November will end up pulling the lever for McCain either out of revulsion for the Dem, guilt, loyalty or because the McCain campaign wore them down.

Hollowpoint on January 30, 2008 at 12:56 PM

Many said the same thing about the last Republican nominee that couldn’t rally the base, Bob Dole. We know how that turned out.

Voting for McCain vs Hillary and Obama vs McCain. The first because I’m sick of family dynasty in both parties and the second because I’d rather have incompetent naivity than seasoned cynicism preying on patriotic emotion because a pilot had his plane shot down. Obama will kick McCain’s ass anyway, so the military who help nominate him can watch in dismay as Obama undoes all their sacrifice in Iraq.

I voting Democrat in 2008, if McCain is the nominee. If McCain is going to be as bad as the Democrats on immigration and at least some of the War on Terror issues, I prefer that we have Democrat getting the blame for the consequences. And anyway change of party is what makes democracy work. I would rather wait for a good Republican president to come along than to have to put up with a bad Republican president whose presidency will hurt the chances of a better Republican president in the future.

It is, of course, essential to vote Republican in the other races of 2008. Let’s have none of these childish “I’m staying home” temper-tantrums.

Well as Neal Boortz is fond of saying “You get more of the behavior you reward, and less of the behavior you punish”. Works with government handouts and elections. As long as the Republicans keep electing these left/moderates to office they will continue to get more of them, and each slightly worse then the one before. It is time to send a message that this type of behavior is unacceptable.

Allah, you sure know how to hurt a guy. Here I was all comfortable in my contrariness about staying home, and you throw me back into reality.

But I still can’t vote for McCain. I understand the war argument and that he’d prosecute it better than Clinton or Obama. But I made that compromise four years ago with my Bush vote. I’m not sure I want to do it again, especially for a guy who has demonstrated hostility toward several key conservative conserns.

He is NOT going to cut taxes, he is NOT going to cut spending, he is NOT going to do ANYTHING that non-liberals want.

You think he is going to veto bills that his liberal friends in the Congress send over with timetables in them? NO!

You think he is going to do anything to fight ear marks? No.

I could go on all day. EVERY single reason people are citing for voting for McCain is bogus self-deception. McCain will take his marching orders from a Dem controlled Congress and smile the whole way. McCain will NOT fight the war, because he will not have any MONEY to fight the war. Congress will take it away and he will put out the “the Dems cut my funding, what could I do?” line.

I really need to calm down as McCain has zero shot to win in Nov. He will be destroyed by the bad press that will begin the second he becomes the nominee, and not end until he is crying in the corner and the Dem nominee is voted in.

Like Steyn says, Romney has no narrative and a contest of “young, gifted, and black vs. old, cranky, and weathered” does not redound to our advantage.

Savage was right. The war on the young white gifted goodlooking male in the U.S. has been won by the multi-cultis.

Why is it that I have heard all week sports pundits swooning over perfect quarterback Tom Brady for his good looks, even though the father of a bastard child, but Mitt gets punched for being too perfect for his looks and nice family?

After that, not sure…considering this: if McCain wins the nomination (and he will) I’m leaning toward voting for Obama, or staying home if Hillary. Not that my vote will matter, anyway, because if McCain gets the nomination, he’ll have one day to enjoy it, then the press will start a full-scale attack similar to what they did with Abu Ghraib..it will be pounding day after day after day non-stop until McCain is utterly destroyed and democrats win both the Congress and the Oval Office in landslide victories.

Here’s a great vast left-wing conspiracy theory:

We’ve all been duped. Last night Mel Martinez said “I’m doing everything I can to ensure a democra, er, republican wins in November.” He’s doing his part. And McCain thinks he’s going to be the next president, because all those times he talked to democrats about joining their party they told him “No, no, stay where you are, you can help us better over there. When it’s your turn, we’ll get you Soros money, we’ll get the press on your side…just pretend to be a republican and let’s get all kind of progressive legislation passed and call it bipartisanship. The press will love you, and you’ll be President.” He’s a useful idiot. Maybe he has alzheimer’s or something, and they know about it and need to ensure he gets the nomination. He has no idea what is going to hit him two days after the nomination, and it will be HIS OWN Frankenstein monster, McCain-Feingold, that will prevent private persons from running campaign ads against Obama or Clinton, but the press, of course, can do or say anything they want, and they are all lefty’s, so this is the perfect storm. We’ve all been duped and the funniest part is with all of this talk about “change” nothing is ever, ever going to change in Washington, D.C.

After Super Duper Tsunami Tornado Global Warming Tuesday, Billary and the Big O will come to terms and forge a Hillary/Obama ticket. Obama will see the writing on the wall that he has not yet had his ticket punched and Billary will do ANYTHING, including offering a VP slot to the Big O, to secure the office. Better to take that hit now and focus on your real opponents than to dish it out all the way to the convention and then wiggle your way out of it.

You can call the election on Wednesday morning if that takes place. I we do not fall into an economic cataclysm or expire in a blast radius of fire within the next four years, you are looking at a fitting end to the Clinton political dynasty – safe in the hands of their “chosen” son.

Here in Minnesota, gearing up for Super Tuesday, an Obama commercial that shows him to be the second coming of RFK,runs every 5 minutes. THe first line he says is something to the effect…” I will get us out of this war”…as tho he plans to pull out the day after taking office…

So I wont sit this one out. Because in punishing mcCain for his sins, I dont want to punish Iraq along with it.

Christ on a crutch!(God fogive me.) Has our party degraded to the point that we are forced to choose between Mr. Awful or Mrs. Horrible?
Have we regressed to the point that our party can no longer nominate a decent conservative?
Have we no longer the right to stay home rather than choose between two of the devil’s own advocates?
It’s no snap decision for me. I’ve been thinking about it for a long time. If the choice is Juan or Shillery, I will stay home and to hell with the RINOs.

I’m not sure how you came to this conclusion, but I strongly disagree.

HebrewToYou on January 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM

Hillary doesn’t care about anything beyond Hillary. If Hillary were to take office then lose the war, it would reflect poorly on how history remembers Hillary, and that would bother her. This doesn’t mean she possesses the acumen to successfully prosecute the war (which she almost certainly doesn’t) but it at least gives her motivation to try to win, which is something.

Alternatively, Obama is simply a principled fool. So, as opposed to Hillary, he would simply pull out our troops and lose the war without even trying to win.

I think these conclusions are consistent with the pair’s campaign statements. Obama makes no qualms about this cut-and-run priority, while Hillary’s talk on the subject is much more “nuanced” (i.e., she can’t commit herself to defeat, but is still quite worried about alienating the anti-US, anti-war base).

My biggest problems today are illegal immigration, the economy, and the war.

II directly affects the economy because of how much cash we throw at these people who would bail back to their home countries in a heartbeat if they could get something better there. They want American benefits without American responsibilities as long as the gettins good. So, the first two are tied together with a short, thick rope in Gordian-esque fashion. Any one of these three are going to dump 40 million illegals into our citizenship, which will end up growing and growing beyond comprehension. Un-freakin-believeable. Can we turn that around after it’s done? Closing the barn door after the horses ran out and the illegals ran in and stole all the hay, bridles, and tack. Uhhhhhhh.

The war is Mac’s only redeeming quality. I have no idea how that’s going to play out by the time November rolls around.

For myself, illegal immigration is my #1 issue. I live in a county of Georgia, but it looks and the crime rate is more like a county in Mexico. It ain’t pretty.

McCain is no different from Clinton or Obama. I won’t vote if McCain is the GOP candidate; however, I’ll be hoping Clinton wins. My reason is this, even though McCain is no different from the Dems on amnesty, the Republican House & Senate won’t back a Democratic president over this matter. However, if McCain is president, the House and Senate will back him just like they backed his amnesty bill last year.

..Has our party degraded to the point that we are forced to choose between Mr. Awful or Mrs. Horrible?..

leanright on January 30, 2008 at 1:38 PM

I’m afraid we may have to swallow that bitter pill and then do something about reality. What exactly, I don’t know. But I think the liberals figured it out long ago by brainwashing our kids in education from kindergarten to grad school.

John McCain will go down in history as the first media-nominated, media-defeated presidential candidate. He’s banking on the media continuing the 8-year love fest they’ve had with the “maverick” Senator from Arizona. They won’t.

The man is a media creation, and the media will gleefully destroy him.

Agree with the analysis: McCain is the only GOP candidate who can beat Hillary, and the only one with a chance of beating Obama. I suspect Allah is right over Obama thought – the MSM have already boosted him to such a messianic level he would be almost impossible to beat in the general.

Obama and Hillary are two of the most liberal Senators in Congress: it is ignorant in the extreme to equate them with Jonny Mac. Abandon Iraq by next year, Afghanistan too sometime soon, socialised healthcare, increased pork barrel spending by a rampant Democratic Congress, anti-life Supreme Court nominees, capitulation to Islamic pressure groups: none of these will you get with McCain.

WHY do people believe ANYTHING McCain says?

Because he’s performed fewer U-turns than Romney, who has admitted that he promises anything to get elected. They’ve both flip-flopped on sanctuary for illegals, but only Romney has flip-flopped on abortion, on homosexual ‘rights’, on socialised healthcare, all of which he supported while Governor a few short years ago. The hypocrisy of the McCain haters is absolutely staggering.

Many said the same thing about the last Republican nominee that couldn’t rally the base, Bob Dole. We know how that turned out.

thirteen28 on January 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM

True, but Dole didn’t really rally anyone. Plus he was up against an evil but popular incumbent during the dot-com boom. Clinton would’ve won against nearly any Republican candidate- at the time a lot of Republicans with presidential ambitions didn’t even bother running for the nomination because they didn’t want to be damaged by a loss.

This I know: I will not vote for John McCain. (If fact, I might vote for the Democrat just to spite him.)

But this I don’t know: How many Republicans feel as strongly as I do? If it’s even 10 percent of the core GOP vote, McCain cannot win.

(And no, I won’t be worn down over the Summer. I don’t care if the Democratic nominee promises to leave Iraq on Day One, to socialize the health care system, to raise personal income taxes a 1000% and to put Dennis Kucinich on the Supreme Court. I am not voting for John McCain.)

If the worst comes to pass and he betrays conservatism in office, it’s not so much a fatal corruption of Republicanism as it is “proof” that centrists can’t be trusted and the next wave needs to get back to basics.

It’s somewhat absurd to pontificate and say that you will only vote for McCain if it’s close in November, otherwise you’ll be staying home. The conservative voters who are thinking this are the same ones who will ensure that the polls show McCain losing in November. Their pronouncement to stay home under these circumstances will simply be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I understand the pain of many conservatives when it comes to McCain, but I don’t see how boycotting the general election is going to be of any help to this country. Nixon and Watergate gave us Carter and we are still haunted by his legacy over 30 years later. Bush I’s new taxes combined with Perot gave us eight years of Clinton and even more pain. Conservatives staying home in November 2006 gave us Pelosi/Reid and a near miss on immigration reform/amnesty. It looks to me like conservatives staying home because of their lack of happiness with GOP candidates hasn’t worked out so well. The only time we win is when we stay vigorously and actively engaged in changing the future direction of things. That often includes holding our noses and then working extra hard to hold elected officials accountable to the American people. Stay home if you will, but doing so will only make you part of a growing problem rather than part of an eventual solution.

If McCain wins the GOP nomination, a President McCain will act counter to conservative principles in some areas, but conservatives can beat him in many of these areas by resorting to grass-roots lobbying. When it comes to the roles of commander-and-chief and foreign policy executive, it would be foolish for conservatives to be complicit in the election of a liberal President in the middle of a war. That is a risk that none of us should be willing to take. If we lose the Middle-East to radical Islam in the next five years, there will be no future political victory that will compensate for the carnage that will follow. What we are fighting in right now is not a cold war. It is a very real and bloody war where entire countries/regions hang in the balance. If we are complicit in allowing the resurgence of radical Islam, the next war will involve a nuclear confrontation that will make previous wars look like a walk in the park. We need to ask ourselves if we are willing to risk the future of this nation and perhaps the rest of the world just to see McCain lose. Conservatism will mean absolutely nothing, if we allow liberals and radicals to take control of everything that we love.

I hope that Romney can pull a hat trick and win the nomination. However, if he doesn’t, I will show up at the polls and vote for the Republican candidate even though I live in a mostly Democrat state. I will not be complicit in the election of a President who will most likely totally surrender to liberals and radicals.

True, but Dole didn’t really rally anyone. Plus he was up against an evil but popular incumbent during the dot-com boom. Clinton would’ve won against nearly any Republican candidate- at the time a lot of Republicans with presidential ambitions didn’t even bother running for the nomination because they didn’t want to be damaged by a loss.

Hollowpoint on January 30, 2008 at 1:54 PM

On the other hand, Dole didn’t possess such a large amount of open hostility to the base that McVain does. And conservatives at that time already hated, just f–king hated Bill Clinton by then, as much as they despise Hillary now. You’d think with a candidate who was at least non-hositle towards the conservative base running against a Clinton could have generated some enthusiasm. Yet it didn’t.

Now we’re going to run a candidate who has nothing but contempt for conservatives, and expect him to rally the base? Fat freakin’ chance.

Well, if McCain wins the nomination I will vote for him but mainly because if Obama wins he will abandon the Iraqi people and leave them high and dry, which is inconceivably wrong especially after ‘the awakening’. To me, stabilizing Iraq, helping the Iraqi people secure their own country (inasmuch as it can be secured) is more important than shamnesty.

Now we’re going to run a candidate who has nothing but contempt for conservatives, and expect him to rally the base? Fat freakin’ chance.

thirteen28 on January 30, 2008 at 2:07 PM

I’m not pretending that McCain is going to rally the base- only that quite a few members of the base will be so opposed to the Dem nominee after 6 months of general election campaigning that a lot of them will hold their nose and pull the lever for the (nominal) Republican.

I don’t like McCain either. I don’t intend to vote for him in the general election… but a lot of those who are saying the same thing now will change their minds when faced with the prospect of Hillary or Obama.

Conservatives staying home in November 2006 gave us Pelosi/Reid and a near miss on immigration reform/amnesty. It looks to me like conservatives staying home because of their lack of happiness with GOP candidates hasn’t worked out so well.

NuclearPhysicist on January 30, 2008 at 2:03 PM

It’s a work in progress. If it takes two or three good shellackings to get it through their freaking heads, so be it.

I don’t like McCain either. I don’t intend to vote for him in the general election… but a lot of those who are saying the same thing now will change their minds when faced with the prospect of Hillary or Obama.

Hollowpoint on January 30, 2008 at 2:13 PM

A lot will, but not enough to push him over the top.

Meanwhile, those same independents that helped give him the nomination will be deciding to either vote for a candidate who loathes his own base while his base returning the favor, or a Dem candidate that will have majority of its base enthusiastically supporting it. Who do you think they’ll go for?

Any conservative that pulls the lever for McCain is being a hypocrite. If one can look themself in the mirror after betraying everything they believe in for a false hope of winning the White House they should go into politics, not watch it. They certainly have the convictions for it, or more truthfully, the lack thereof.

independents that helped give him the nomination will be deciding to either vote for a candidate who loathes his own base while his base returning the favor, or a Dem candidate that will have majority of its base enthusiastically supporting it. Who do you think they’ll go for?

thirteen28 on January 30, 2008 at 2:27 PM

Independents will vote for whomever comes closest to their opinions, regardless of which one has more party loyalty. That’s why they’re independants. Independents will not get caught up in right wing conser-mentum or or left wing change-o-rama. I wouldn’t be suprised if they vote for the candidate who appeals the LEAST to their base.

I disagree 100% with the Purple candidate. I disagree 95% with the Orange candidate. I’ll vote for the Orange candidate.

I’m not willing to quit for the sake of our country, our troops and the Iraqiis.

It’s a question of how far are we WILLING to lose. I’m sorry but I see the ‘go homers’ as nothing more than quitters. It’s nearly impossible to play ball with a team full of them. WATCH THE BAD NEW BEARS FOR GOODNESS SAKE!

So go home quitters. Go home. Leave the fix’n for the rest of us. And if Clinton or Obama take the oval office, you’ll have no reason to complain about any havoc they create after. NONE! So stop your whining and act!

Time for scorched earth policy; hand it all over to the Dems, let them take us straight to Hell, then work on rebuilding the party with conservative leadership (no neo- prefix required, RINOs tolerated but not fed). Wait for the voters to revolt enough to quit listening to the MSM again, as they did in ’80.

Hopefully, there will enough of this country and the rest of the world that is worth saving and is now paying attention by then.

I’m not willing to quit for the sake of our country, our troops and the Iraqiis.

shick on January 30, 2008 at 3:09 PM

I am getting so tired of hearing about how the thing we are doing for the Iraqis is so important. I wonder what all you war supporters are going to do when your wonderful Iraqis use the gift of democracy that we have brought them to start electing terrorists. Anybody got recent election results from Lebanon, Gaza or Egypt because democracy is going really well for us in those places.

Honestly, AP
There is a 90% probability that I will at the end of the day put on my full body condom and vote for the maverick if he gets the nomination. However, I will do all I can to prevent having to do so.