Targets and Touches

Target Watch: Week 3

The Texans had a pretty balanced attack in this one and targets weren’t plentiful. With Kevin Walter out, Jacoby Jones still only saw four targets, which doesn’t say much for Schaub’s faith in him. Owen Daniels was back in the fold with five targets including two in the red zone. I was hoping for more from him, but this is a step in the right direction. He’ll continue to be targeted second or third most and get looks near the end zone. That's a recipe for tasty success.

This game helped solidify the fears of every Colts fan/Colts fantasy owner, like a cannon ball shot into the gut all slow motion like. Even with 18 targets between them, Collie and Wayne could only cobble together 90 total yards and zilcho touchdowns. They were playing the Browns. This offense is dead inside. And dead to me.

This is pretty cut and dry. Mike Thomas is the only receiver who will see enough targets in this lackluster offense to have any fantasy value. Darelle Revis and company bottled him up even with 10 targets, but he will have easier matchups and he will continue to get his looks. He will.

It looks like Maurice Jones-Drew is still the king of Jag backs. Last week Deji Karim saw quite a few plays, including passing plays, but the breakdown looks like it’s back to normal. Karim is still the handcuff and will come in to spell him, but his presence shouldn’t hurt MJD’s value.

The loss of Jamaal Charles slows the offense down to a slug’s pace, but they still play the games I suppose. Bowe managed to put together 100 yards receiving and gave some (possibly false) hope to his fantasy owners. He’ll continue to get his targets, but his zero red zone targets in Week 2 will most likely be a common site since getting to the red zone will be a Herculean feat for this team.

There are three possible replacements for Charles in this offense and the snap numbers go a little something like this: McCluster 33, Jones 27 and McClain 26. That’s pretty even, but McCluster edged Jones out in passing routes and rushes combined. He is a much more dynamic a player and can make things happen that Jones and McClain just can’t.

This game saw the continued target hoggery of Brandon Marshall and a changing of the guard at running back. After a long, storied stint as RB1 in the Dolphins offense, Reggie Bush took a back seat to rookie Daniel Thomas. Coach Sparano said he was aiming for a 70-30 split between Bush and Thomas, so it was quite the surprise to see Thomas as the 70 to Bush’s 30. I’m no math geek (I just look like one) but Thomas’s 19 touches to Bush’s 9 is 68 percent to 32 percent. I’m not sure we can trust the man behind the sunglasses! Is this how it will break down from here on out? Well, it’s hard not to like what we saw from Thomas and Bush isn’t built to be a between the tackles runner all season long. This should be the baseline.

The Vikings passing attack is more like a very slight intermittent incursion. And oddly enough their best receiver is barely on the field. Percy Harvin led the team in targets, but was on the field for only 30 of 68 snaps. That’s less than half the time. Most No. 1 receivers are in there 80 percent or more. It’s baffling.

Shiancoe saw a good deal of targets, but didn’t do much with them and we should continue to see Rudolph progress enough to guide McNabb’s sleigh through the big snowstorm of the NFL.

Week 2 might have brought us more questions than answers, but that is usually how this faux football thing works. I’m hoping some patterns start to emerge so I’ve put the Week 2 targets before the yearly targets which are in parentheses. I’ll do that all season to bring some order into the volatile world of NFL statistical geekery.

You know who is going to get the majority of targets each week (yeah, it’s Larry) so the true tea leaf reading comes down to Doucet and Roberts. So far it is too close to give one a real edge in fantasy and that makes it tough to recommend either except in deeper leagues. Jeff King keeps making the most out of his targets, but that 2.5 per game average isn’t what you want for your tight end. His touchdown numbers will regress or I guess he could end up with 16! Or not. The lack of targets for Larod Stephens-Howling is a good sign for Beanie Wells' continued passing down dominance.

The Falcons took what was given to them against the Eagles and those were mismatches for Tony Gonzalez. Roddy White won’t usually be shut down like this, but it just goes to show you that pretty much any single player can be limited, but thankfully he still managed a touchdown. These target numbers just reinforce the idea that you should start tight ends against the Eagles soft underbelly.

Last week it looked good for Jacquizz “Master” Rodgers, but his snap count dropped this week to a measly 13. The coaches did give him two rushing attempts in the red zone so they still trust him with the ball in critical situations, but he’s still not the No. 2 running back. The hope for Harry Douglas in a new pass happy Falcons’ offense has been shelved, keep it there.

Rice will continue to be first or second in targets, which makes him a top 5 back every week. Boldin’s targets have been consistent so far so he should be a safe start every week, especially since Flacco has only completed two passes to any receiver not named Boldin. And he also had two red zone targets, which is what you want to see. The battle between Pitta and Dickson continues to go Dickson’s way, which makes it easier to think of him as a possible No. 1 tight end.

With Steve Johnson sidelined for portions of this game David Nelson stepped up as the clear No. 2 receiver. I don’t think we can expect 13 targets again very soon, but in Chan Gailey’s offense there should be enough targets to go around. As long as this trend continues I don’t see any reason that Nelson can’t be an every week starter in PPR leagues.

Scott Chandler strikes again! Unlike Jeff King he does get an ok amount of targets and all four of his targets this week were in the red zone! That’s what us fake footballers like to see. It makes him intriguing even though he’s not getting on the field enough.

If you drafted Mr. Smith this season you got a huge steal. If he can average anywhere close to double digit targets this year you are going to be bathing in the fantasy points Scrooge McDuck style.

The oddest and maybe most telling target stat is Jonathan Stewart receiving eight pass targets! And catching all 8 for 100 yards! (yes, I believe the exclamation marks are deserved.) How much of an aberration this is has yet to be seen, but I think we have to give it some weight. The Panthers defense isn’t top shelf and they will be close or trailing in a good number of games this season. Whichever running back is in on passing downs should end up having more value and Stewart was on the field for 49 snaps compared to DeAngelo Williams who was out there for just 26.

The tight end situation got a little stickier this game. Until Shockey hurts himself (it will be soon) you’ll have to hold off on starting Greg Olsen. He is the No. 1 tight end and is on the field more often than Shockey, but his targets are being eaten into by the gluttonous tight end.

That’s a lot of players to spread over a big target cracker. Matt Forte once again was a PPR beast and will continue to be until further notice. But those other guys, blurgh. Nine targets for Hester sure look nice. Maybe it’s time to get him on our fake football radar. Let’s see, what did he do with those targets? Oh, never mind.

One catch. One stinking catch. Might not want to target him so much. I wouldn’t own any Bears’ receiver until one steps up, which may be a while.

This week was the one Green owners were hoping for. Yes, Simpson still had a bunch of targets, but Green, being the better receiver, deserved more and got them. He absolutely has the skill to be a No. 1 receiver in this league and if Dalton continues to progress and give him targets he can be that sooner than later. It looks like Dalton knows what he has in Green.

Jermaine Gresham had a bit of a letdown from Week 1, but he still had a decent amount of targets including two red zone looks. So far so good there, especially now that we can have a little more faith in the Bengals passing game with Andy Dalton coming around.

We’re going to be hard pressed to find a consistent fantasy receiver in the Brown’s offense. This game was of course more run oriented due to the opponent, but the offense runs through Hillis no matter who they are playing. And on a side note, that is bad for Hillis who wore down at the end of last season. If Hardesty doesn’t step up soon Hillis might not be able to get up soon.

We saw much less of Evan Moore due to Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney needing to be blocked, so don’t give up on him. But until I see some consistent targets for Little and Moore (the guys with the most upside) I’m taking a wait and see approach.

The Cowboys were mostly hobbling through this game, and Austin, their top target is now out for a few games. It’s difficult to see who will step up as the guy besides Jason Witten. He is rock solid and if Dez Bryant is back in the fold and healthy, they will be the target hogs. With Bryant out Ogletree didn’t distinguish himself, but he is the guy next in line and will take over for Austin.

The running back situation was fairly evenly split while Felix Jones was hurting. If he misses any time it very much looks like a time share and a guessing game for fantasy production between Murray and Choice.

Eric Decker is the story this week. With no Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal getting hurt, he was the go to guy and proved he could handle the title. Lloyd will most likely be back, but Royal should be out 2-4 weeks and when he comes back Decker will probably have taken his job.

Julius Thomas goes back in the wine cellar. He needs a little more aging, but don’t give up on him. He has upside to spare. And nice legs.

The Lions decided to see if Todd Haley would give them a good old fashion finger wagging after this one. They did what they do best and went pass happy on the Chiefs depleted secondary. Stafford’s arm can support quite a few fantasy players, but of course as you go down the totem pole it gets a little spottier. We know what we have in Best and Megatron, but after that it is a little harder to decipher. So far Nate Burleson has a firm grip on that No. 2 position and I believe we’ll continue to see him get his targets, at least enough to be a WR3 week to week. After that, Young, Pettigrew and Scheffler will have to fight over the looks. I want to believe Young will continue to see this many targets because I love his upside, but I think he’ll be pretty inconsistent. And I also see Scheffler and Pettigrew continuing to steal looks from each other. Jerks.

The Packers main receivers remain Finley and Jennings, but this offense can support more than that if we can see some consistency. Rodgers is one of those weirdo quarterbacks who likes throwing to the open receiver and with so many weapons we are going to see some fluctuation in targets, but if we look at the sheer number of routes it might help us see who the coaches prefer. The passing route numbers break down as such, Jennings 33, Finley 26, Nelson 24, Driver 22, Jones 11 and Cobb 8.

Last week we saw Nelson with 19 to Driver’s 31. It seems inevitable that this trend should continue which would make Nelson the No. 2 receiver. He only had two targets this week, but that number will be higher as we go forward. And he did have an 84-yard touchdown, so that’s good. Once again we saw James Starks dominate the time and looks on the field. Starks was on the field for 37 plays while Grant was only there for 18. That’s close to what it was last week. There’s no reason to think those numbers will start getting better for Grant any time soon.

The Texans had a pretty balanced attack in this one and targets weren’t plentiful. With Kevin Walter out, Jacoby Jones still only saw four targets, which doesn’t say much for Schaub’s faith in him. Owen Daniels was back in the fold with five targets including two in the red zone. I was hoping for more from him, but this is a step in the right direction. He’ll continue to be targeted second or third most and get looks near the end zone. That's a recipe for tasty success.

This game helped solidify the fears of every Colts fan/Colts fantasy owner, like a cannon ball shot into the gut all slow motion like. Even with 18 targets between them, Collie and Wayne could only cobble together 90 total yards and zilcho touchdowns. They were playing the Browns. This offense is dead inside. And dead to me.

This is pretty cut and dry. Mike Thomas is the only receiver who will see enough targets in this lackluster offense to have any fantasy value. Darelle Revis and company bottled him up even with 10 targets, but he will have easier matchups and he will continue to get his looks. He will.

It looks like Maurice Jones-Drew is still the king of Jag backs. Last week Deji Karim saw quite a few plays, including passing plays, but the breakdown looks like it’s back to normal. Karim is still the handcuff and will come in to spell him, but his presence shouldn’t hurt MJD’s value.

The loss of Jamaal Charles slows the offense down to a slug’s pace, but they still play the games I suppose. Bowe managed to put together 100 yards receiving and gave some (possibly false) hope to his fantasy owners. He’ll continue to get his targets, but his zero red zone targets in Week 2 will most likely be a common site since getting to the red zone will be a Herculean feat for this team.

There are three possible replacements for Charles in this offense and the snap numbers go a little something like this: McCluster 33, Jones 27 and McClain 26. That’s pretty even, but McCluster edged Jones out in passing routes and rushes combined. He is a much more dynamic a player and can make things happen that Jones and McClain just can’t.

This game saw the continued target hoggery of Brandon Marshall and a changing of the guard at running back. After a long, storied stint as RB1 in the Dolphins offense, Reggie Bush took a back seat to rookie Daniel Thomas. Coach Sparano said he was aiming for a 70-30 split between Bush and Thomas, so it was quite the surprise to see Thomas as the 70 to Bush’s 30. I’m no math geek (I just look like one) but Thomas’s 19 touches to Bush’s 9 is 68 percent to 32 percent. I’m not sure we can trust the man behind the sunglasses! Is this how it will break down from here on out? Well, it’s hard not to like what we saw from Thomas and Bush isn’t built to be a between the tackles runner all season long. This should be the baseline.

The Vikings passing attack is more like a very slight intermittent incursion. And oddly enough their best receiver is barely on the field. Percy Harvin led the team in targets, but was on the field for only 30 of 68 snaps. That’s less than half the time. Most No. 1 receivers are in there 80 percent or more. It’s baffling.

Shiancoe saw a good deal of targets, but didn’t do much with them and we should continue to see Rudolph progress enough to guide McNabb’s sleigh through the big snowstorm of the NFL.

Deion Branch continues to get his fair share of looks and now that Aaron Hernandez is out a few weeks I would’t be surprised if they stayed where they are. The tight ends continue to dominate the red zone looks with 5 a piece in the first 2 games, but without Hernandez we should see Gronk see an extra helping. Ochocinco could see some more work with Hernandez out, but I’d like to see it before I believe it.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis flip-flopped week 1 looks with Danny Woodhead and put together a nice fantasy excursion in the process. You can expect about anything there. I would not be at all surprised to see Stevan Ridley start to cut into both of their touches any day now. I guess I need to watch that Belichick documentary and maybe I’ll be able to understand the methods behind his madness. And grow to love his soft, vulnerable side.

Lance Moore was only on the field for 25 plays compared to 40 for Devery Henderson and 61 for Robert Meachem. This seems most likely due to his groin pains and this number should rise next week. (don’t even think it!) That should also start to cut into the number of targets Sproles sees. It’s extremely hard to find any kind of pattern in this Saints offense, especially with injuries skewing things up. Jimmy Graham looks like the safest play from week to week, but we did see Mark Ingram get five carries in the red zone and soon he should face a defense that isn’t a Bear or a Packer, unfortunately their week 3 opponent is Houston who is hopped up on free agents and Wade Phillips.

It was nice to see Bradshaw get back in the target game and in turn, the reception game. He needs those stats to be the fantasy back you paid for. Jacobs also did what he is good at and had a couple red zone looks, one resulting in a touchdown. That’s the dynamic we are used to and the one we invested our hard earned fake football cash in.

Nicks and Manningham once again dominated the targets as they should, but Manningham had a bad case of the Crisco fingers and also left the game after getting a concussion. If he can’t go, and with Hixon now out for the season, Victor Cruz would most likely fill his shoes.

This game was ruled by the defense and not much offense was needed. And the Jets provided just that. The best news here is that Keller, even with only 17 completions on the team, was able to get six of those. He seems to finally be getting consistent targets, plus those coveted red zone targets, which he’s had five of so far this season.

The green tide turned in favor of Shonn Greene this week because they weren’t playing from behind and in pass mode, so that hurt LaDainian Tomlinson who only had eight looks to Greene’s 18. Of course, Greene didn’t do much with those opportunities and you might want to stash Bilal Powell on your bench if you have a long bench.

If every game could go like this for the Raiders we’d have ourselves a fake football goldmine! But sadly we are going to have to endure some growing and probably some groin pains, especially in this large amalgamation of wide receivers. Thankfully and hopefully we’ll see the talented Denarius Moore continue to get the opportunities he so nicely earned in Buffalo, and what happens in Buffalo should not stay in Buffalo, at least in this case.

It’s also good to see Run DMC back at it in the receiving game. His one target in Week 1 was disheartening, but his eight in Week 2 was, well, heartening. When he gets the ball in space there isn’t much a single defender can do. Yes, Michael Bush did vulture a goal line touchdown from him and that will most likely continue to happen, but McFadden saw the ball seven times in the red zone compared to three for Bush. I’ll take those odds with talent like his.

Will Jeremy Maclin get 15 targets to DeSean Jackson’s three from here on out? Yeah, it’s a dumb question, but the anomaly is pretty striking. When they are both on the field the numbers are usually much closer, with Maclin leading one week and D-Jax the next, but never this big of a gap, so don’t worry about Jackson or think that Maclin is the clear No. 1. They do different things and their looks will be dictated by the defense. The good news is that Maclin is 100 percent back and should continue to put up good numbers.

The talk before the season started was that Celek might be used more often than he was last season, but Week q came and went and Brent was left crying in his three target soup. Week 2 brought him a present of seven targets including three in the red zone. He only had 12 red zone targets all last season. If this can keep up he may hold some value.

Through two weeks last season Mike Wallace had nine targets with four receptions and this year he has 20 targets with 16 receptions. I think that’s more. If you thought Wallace was a one hit wonder deep threat it’s time to change your tune. He’s curling and crossing and fading all over the field and is on pace for 128 receptions and 1,864 yards. He better step up his game if he wants to get to his predicted 2,000 yards!

The battle between Brown and Sanders is at a standstill. Even though Brown is smoking him in targets Sanders continues to keep pace with him in production. It seems like that should lead to more looks for Sanders, but that hasn’t been the trend as of yet.

This was the Vincent Jackson show since Coach Belichick gave the kiss of death to Antonio Gates. The hooded one loves to take the opponents best player out of the game and he did just that. That gave Jackson more room to roam and he went off, but still the Patriots won. He must know something. Anyway, the bigger story here is the rise in production for Ryan Mathews. Both Tolbert and Mathews saw work in the passing game with nine targets each and both put up good numbers, but Mathews once again showed he is the superior runner, rushing 12 times for 64 yards and a touchdown while Tolbert rushed nine times for 10 yards and no touchdown. Tolbert is averaging 2.1 yards a carry to Mathews’ 4.5 and even though Tolbert is still getting more red zone looks than Mathews, last week it was 11-0 and this week it was 3-2. The winds of change are a blowin’.

This offense is trying its best to hide Alex Smith and in turn they are hiding the whole offense. Since they are unable to stretch the field, Frank Gore is getting bottled up and there’s some major viscosity breakdown in that offense’s engine. Until they are able to push the safeties and linebackers back a little it’s going to be rough going for all their fantasy starters. All two of them.

The absence of Danny Amendola left room for Greg Salas to step up. He didn’t. Instead Mike Sims-Walker did. Of course the big numbers came from Danario Alexander and it’s hard to argue with his talent. If his knees can hold up at all he should continue to get targets, but he was only out there for 16 plays while MSW was out there for 64 and Brandon Gibson 48. His knees can’t handle much more.

Mike Williams’ negative four yards probably wasn’t what you were hoping for. He did have an amazing touchdown grab called back due to an illegal formation penalty, but for the most part Tampa Mike was double teamed and the receivers who had single coverage just weren't good enough to force that coverage away from him.

Once again LeGarrette Blount didn’t see many carries because they were behind for much of the game, but he made due with the 14 he had and scored two touchdowns. He’s risky because he isn’t on the field in passing downs, but you saw what he can do when he does touch the ball.

The more teams try to stop Chris Johnson the more Matt Hasselbeck is going to burn them with Britt and Washington. Seeing these kind of target numbers in the passing game is great news for Chris Johnson fantasy owners. As he gets back up to playing speed Hasselbeck is making the passing game work which will lessen the pressure up front and a full go CJ2K versus a defensive front that has to worry about an actual passing game is all she wrote. Oh, and they face the Broncos in week 3. That might be all she wrote. Whoever she is.

There were a lot of targets out there in Native America and not that many found their target, but when Sexy Rexy throws the ball 43 times he’s bound to hit someone on his team once in a while. It looks like Santana Moss is going to get hit the most and have another quiet, but productive PPR season. Jabar Gaffney is trying to be the poor man’s Santana Moss, which makes him pretty darn poor in fantasy circles, but he’s getting his looks, for what it’s worth. Fred Davis is truly breaking out and looks like a No. 1 fantasy tight end in the making, well, maybe he’s done made.

The real story though is Roy Helu. His 10 carries for 74 yards and three receptions for 38 yards didn’t come in garbage time, but in the thick of the battle. Shanahan saw how well he was running and left him in there. That’s not the best news for Tim “Riggins” Hightower. The fact that Helu saw four passing targets to Hightower’s two is even more interesting to me. That means that if he does wrestle the job from him he can most likely be the every down back. I believe it’s just a matter of time. Cue the Jams theme Timmy.