The migration crisis imploded Schengen

GRAPHICS – As borders. close by automatic contagion effect, European officials estimate that there are only two months to act.

Correspondent in Brussels

The trap closes on refugees, but also Berlin and the rest of the EU. Austria, together with Angela Merkel since the beginning of the crisis, betraying the cause: it will cap the entries of asylum seekers, triggering a shock wave that already sounds of the German chancellery to the Aegean Sea. The 8.5 million Austrians have collected more than 90,000 refugees in 2015, proportionately almost as much as the Germans. Vienna, overwhelmed, decided to drop the entries from 60% this year (37,500), while the pressure shows no signs of decline, even in the dead of winter. “We can not accommodate all the asylum seekers,” said the Social Democrat Chancellor Werner Faymann.

Sweden, also a member of the trio of major host countries, had fired the signal Alarm in the fall. The defection of Austria is three times more telling. It robs Merkel’s policy of opening up its last real support in the EU. It installs a barrier at the exit of the Balkan corridor used by more than one million refugees and migrants since the spring. Finally, it may seal the fate of less traffic area and less free. The funnel narrows to the north and, in quick succession, Macedonia and Serbia have announced they will close their doors to refugees who intend to countries other than Austria and Germany. The Balkans, either, do not want to be overwhelmed. To the southeast of Europe, the hatches will close automatically like a sinking ship.

“A new surge in the spring”

Greece, hub of the exodus, could turn into a stalemate, if not excluded from the area of ​​”free movement” as desired by some of his critics. For good measure, the government now Tsipras speaks of control outputs to Macedonia, but it is a little late. The Greek have any bad solution to a crisis in all directions, the EU would add a humanitarian disaster centered on the most weakened country.

The point is clear.. Nine months after the first summit “crisis” on refugees, twenty-eight capitals have given birth to any viable and Europe is preparing to relive the same tragicomedy in 2015. Davos, Manuel Valls is concerned about the danger of “dislocation in the coming months.” On behalf of the rotating presidency of the EU, the Dutch Mark Rutte judge it “remains two months to control the situation before a new surge in the spring.” From Strasbourg, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk also set them red lines and the last time. Merkel hopes results in mid-February at the next EU summit.

White cabbage for “hotspots”

Since spring, the Europeans as asylum seekers have heard many other ultimatums and schedules never respected. In June, 28, promised to share 40,000 refugees objective raised to 160,000 in September. To date, only 331 have been “relocated” across the EU.

as white cabbage for “hotspots”, these shelters supposed register new arrivals: four are open (including 3 in Italy) with a total capacity of just 2,000 people. For its part, the European agency Frontex should take the bull by the horns and orchestrating the expulsion of large-scale recalibrated asylum. There were 4 flights that “return” from Italy (153 people), the final end of October, according to figures from the commission. And none from Greece …

The idea of ​​national quotas refleurit

Without a decent management of refugees of war, Europe is now betting on a halt to Exodus. The tools announced in November, during another ad hoc summit in Malta, have so far been disappointing. The EU has promised € 3 billion to “fix” 2 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. But Ankara is slow race on money as the concrete result. The other desired parade in Paris and Berlin – the mobilization of a genuine European corps of border guards – raises intractable issues of sovereignty. It will take months, if not years.

The refugee issue now borrows from the squared circle. Sweden, Austria and of course Germany can not bear the burden alone. The question of sharing comes back like a boomerang, at the wrong time, after the attacks in Paris and violence Cologne. The idea – which had torn the Twenty-Eight all summer – refleurit national quotas, permanent this time. Faute de mieux, the EU circular.