martes, 3 de julio de 2018

Mexico’s new president is a nationalist, but he’s not anti-American

Mexico’s new president is a nationalist,
but he’s not anti-American

Teotihuacán
en Línea. James R. Jones, U.S.
ambassador to Mexico
from 1993 to 1997.

On Sunday,
Mexicans chose Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known nearly universally as AMLO,
as their next president. López Obrador has been referred to by many Mexicans
and some analysts of Mexico
as anti-business and anti-American. In reality, he is neither.

I have
known López Obrador for 25 years, since I was U.S.
ambassador to Mexico.
The words that best describe him are pragmatic and driven. He is driven by a
desire to improve the living conditions of the half of Mexicans who remain
poor.

Over the
years, I’ve discussed and argued with AMLO many times over various issues.
While he may have preconceived notions about a correct approach (as all of us
do), he will listen and sometimes be persuaded by different facts and opinions.
He is not afraid to change his position on an issue if he is convinced that
there is a better way. Consider: After seeing improved economic opportunities
for Mexicans, he has come to support the North American Free Trade Agreement
and other free-trade agreements despite his earlier criticisms.

It’s true
that López Obrador is wary of the close and, in his view, corrupt relationships
in the past between certain powerful businesses and the old Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) political regime, which he opposed during his
developing political career. But AMLO is at heart a pragmatist. He recognizes
that to help his primary constituency -the poor and disadvantaged-he must grow
the economy, and he understands that economic growth comes from a competitive
private economy, not from government. The redevelopment of the Zocalo, the
historic center of Mexico City, was a
public-private partnership with the two main actors being Carlos Slim, Mexico’s richest business leader, and López
Obrador, then mayor of Mexico City.
This project transformed the area, helping all levels of society.

López
Obrador is clearly wary of President Trump and his rhetorical excesses and
policies that negatively affect Mexico
and Mexican citizens who live and work in the United States. The Mexican
president-elect has also long opposed the imposition of economic and security
policies on Mexico from
abroad, typically emanating from the United States. Rather than being
anti-American, AMLO is a nationalist who is highly protective of Mexican
national sovereignty.

But López
Obrador also recognizes that the economic, security and societal
interdependence between the United States
and Mexico
mean that our two countries must work together to resolve shared problems. I am
convinced that his policy emphasis on improving the domestic economy means he
would very much work for a smooth relationship with the U.S.
government.

While
previously criticizing the constitutional energy reforms of President Enrique
Peña Nieto’s government, AMLO now says he wants to restore Mexico’s
hydrocarbon energy production, and he recognizes that he needs private capital
to do so. His main concern is corruption, which was rampant in the past, and
his team will closely audit this. He will also emphasize development of
alternative energy, such as solar power. He recognizes that in energy as in
other sectors of the economy, foreign investment is needed. Based on our
discussions over the past year, I expect he will continue to respect the
independence of the central bank, although that issue will have to be closely
monitored by watching his appointments to the board. I also believe he will
employ a conservative fiscal policy as he did while mayor of Mexico City, thus showing balanced and
mutually supportive fiscal and monetary policies

Mexico is essentially a conservative,
family-oriented country. But its people are fed up with decades of corruption
and violence. These are the issues that got AMLO elected, and they will
dominate the beginning of his administration. Still, while López Obrador’s
rhetoric will highlight the plight of the poor, especially in the country’s
south, below the radar expect him to promote economic growth through the
private sector. Mexico’s
poverty problem is too severe to be solved during his presidency, but he will
strive to lay the foundation for a long-term solution. His aim is to instill
hope for the next generation through major investments in education,
health-care delivery and infrastructure development.

It will
take time for AMLO and the business community to develop trust, just as
developing an operational partnership with the United States will take some
forbearance on both sides of the border. But both are possible if all sides
park their harsh rhetoric and recognize that cooperation is needed if Mexico is to achieve its potential and be a
strong partner for the United
States