If Mao lands 5 triples in the LP she will win regardless of what Ashley does.

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She landed atleast 5 triples in her 2 losses to Wagner did she not. If Mao skates like she did at NHK she could be looking at a last place finish here. The judges in Russia will be nowhere near as kind for a subpar performance as in Japan.

At the Japan Open Mao did not rotate 5 triples and also had one spin completely thrown out and was still within 1.5 of Ashley. My predicition is if Mao rotates 5 triples in the long Ashley has no chance to beat Mao unless she has some weird element disqualified again. This is considering the programs this season. I think Mao wins on spins and steps. Ashley hasn't been getting her levels high enough this season. It could end up coming down to the the short and if Ashley whips out a triple triple again like 4CC to keep it close.

The IF is a big but I think a 5 triple mao still has a edge on 6 triple ashley. If Ashley steps is up to 7 I think she completely controls her own destiny but I don't think she plans to go for that until 4CC/Worlds.

I put my vote for Akiko, she's gotten substantially better with each competition this year. It will come down to a clean short for her. Ashley is my other favourite but she has tons of votes already so I gave this one to Akiko. Ashley is my favourite current skater but I would dearly love for Akiko to win. She certainly deserves it after two on the fence losses this season. She's my sentimental favourite

Not clear in the ladies. They are all talented and the factor which will affect the placing is whether they will be at the top of the game that day. Mao has everything to win but doesn't seem to be consistent lately. I will go for the ladies who have shown consistency.

Can't believe the day has come when I'm saying this, but wholeheartedly Ashley over any of the other competitors based on what we've seen in the past six competitions. I'm a fan of Ashley, but just didn't see this coming. I hope it'll be an intense competition!

Ashley has it all but does nothing for me. I just can't seem to enjoy watching her like some of the others. Akiko is always fantastic to watch & Elizaveta got so much better at TEB. It's such a shame Mao can't hold it together at the moment. The choreography of the two routines are amazing & the best for me.
But much like the dance event being between two couples I think Ashley will win even with errors.

But much like the dance event being between two couples I think Ashley will win even with errors.

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I definitely do not believe Ashley has the street cred/rep to win "even with errors." The judges have given us no indication that they regard a flawed Ashley in the same way they regard a flawed Mao. Ashley has to skate consistently the way she has been doing and depend on flaws from Mao, which will most likely happen based on how Asada has skated the past few seasons. It has been proven by the judges that Akiko Suzuki cannot afford errors and have a shot at winning. Skating a clean SP will be key for everyone, but especially Akiko!

Ashley should win if she goes in there w/ a mindset to win. But, if she goes in w/ a strategy to test drive the 3f-3t and 2x-3t and makes mistakes, she probably won't. In which case, it will be either Asada or Suzuki. Tuk is doing well, but I don't know if it's enough to medal against them unless one of them falls apart. Korpi won't be clean. She rarely is. So, I don't see her medalling even if the judges love her.

Gao doesn't have much to lose. Skating clean, she would still finish behind all of Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, Tuk, and Korpi. IMO, she should test drive the 3f-3t in her LP