Obesity has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. With 2005 estimates of approximately 1.6 billion adults (aged 15 years and over) overweight and at least 400 million adults obese, the World Health Organization predicts that by 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese. These estimates do not even take into account a lower overweight threshold set for Asians. In the US and Canada half of all adults are likely to be obese within eight years, with only one in five people of healthy weight.

The market for weight-loss drugs in the US, Europe and Japan totalled around US$600 million in 2005, and is expected to rise globally to approximately US$2 billion by 2010. Current long-term treatments include: Abbott's Meridia/Reductil (sibutramine), a monoamine reuptake inhibitor that is approved in the US and Europe; Roche's Xenical (orlistat), a gastric lipase inhibitor that is approved in the US and Europe; and sanofi-aventis' Acomplia (rimonabant), a cannabinoid type 1 receptor blocker that is approved only in Europe.

No single major company dominates the obesity drug market, although sanofi-aventis, GSK, Merck & Co and Pfizer all have several compounds in development. The rewards are high for those who can bring effective treatments to market, but questions remain...

What are the strengths and weaknesses for current therapy approaches?
Which research approach is likely to achieve best clinical and commercial results and when are the resulting drugs likely to reach the market?
What are the development and regulatory challenges companies must overcome?

The answers to these and many other questions can be found in this new 120+ page strategic management report Obesity Drug Discoveries: What the future holds (published August 2007). The web edition of the report includes, Obesity Tracker, an online news service for those needing to monitor this developing area. The report is also available in print and pdf formats.

The race is on among competing research strategies.

Obesity offers pharmaceutical companies a marketplace characterised by rapid and continuing growth, long-term unmet clinical need and a wide prevalence profile. The recognition of obesity as a serious global issue is relatively recent, and rising concern and interest has outpaced the industry’s ability to nurture products through the lengthy regulatory process.

Health payers will have to balance the cost of obesity treatment with the very real health benefits of reducing related conditions, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. With pressure to contain rising drug costs, arguments about paying for this “lifestyle” illness are bound to rage.

Furthermore, patient demand for drug-based intervention, even for those with a questionable clinical need, could significantly boost the market value.

Although 25 companies have products in clinical development, much interest lies in the research and prospects of big pharma companies such as GSK, sanofi-aventis, Merck & Co and Pfizer. However, in such a fledgling market, the opportunities for innovation to win through are better than in established and more exploited therapy areas.

UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT SCORE

For each product reviewed, the report provides a critical competitor ratio analysis, based on our assessment of the following five criteria:

novelty/rationale for mechanism of action;

proof of concept/clinical data;

management expertise;

competition within the marketplace; and, risks associated with drug development in the therapeutic class.

Defining obesity What causes obesity? What effects does obesity have? Figure 1: Effects of obesity on health Table 1. Relative risks of health problems associated with obesity The scale of the problem Prevalence of obesity Figure 2. Estimated global prevalence of obesity Highest prevalence of obesity Prevalence in the US Prevalence in the UK Prevalence in Europe Prevalence in Asia Prevalence in developing countries Figure 3. Percentage of households having both underweight and overweight members in seven countries Figure 4. Country comparison - percentage of adults with normal BMI Childhood and future obesity Figure 5. Percentage of population that is overweight Figure 6. Predicted prevalence of obesity by 2025 The economic burden US UK Europe Developing Countries