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ALL EYES ON MAY: The biggest question in Westminster right now is how the PM will respond if and when she loses the vote Tuesday night. Playbook had five conversations with well-places sources around the palace yesterday, and heard five different theories of what she’ll do next. (Which means nobody — including your Playbook author — has a clue.) Some theories, it’s fair to say, are more far-fetched than others. But in this brief period of calm before the next storm erupts, we can sit back and speculate about the PM’s next steps...

Their suggestion is that May takes Option 1, which does sound the most likely given May's history. Time and time again, rather than face up to reality, May has chosen to hide behind vague statements in order to postpone actual decisions. If Option 1 gives her that, she's done nothing to persuade me she won't try it. But then again, we appear to be moving through an unprecedented political situation in this country. You'd be a fool for thinking you know what to expect next.

Note: London Playbook is a daily briefing which is always worth a read on your commute.

Liaising on justice and borders, and pay towards that through a variety of projects.

However, the UK would have no say in the rules and must adhere to the EU’s four freedoms: free movement of goods, capital, services and persons. This is probably the staunchest of May's red lines. Not only accepting the four freedoms, but being able to influence policy just seems impossible to navigate. Norway also isn't in the Customs Union which causes a problem for NI. So the UK would need to re-join the CU as well. This stifles our ability to forge our own trade deals. Another red line.

The question with this model is that if you're already in the EU why would you want the Norway option? It's all the elements of EU membership the UK is unhappy with, without the benefits.

Yeah, if there's support for the Norway option, they should just admit that they want to stay in and be done with it.

I think there's political (as in parliamentary) support for being able to say "We've left the EU" , but also not say "We've blown up the economy doing it".
If you try and remain in the EU (which is obviously the option I'd prefer, and, I gather, the one preferred by the majority of parliamentarians), then there's a lot of awkwardness about not respecting democracy, will of the people, blah blah blah. It's tough to say that people didn't vote that way in 2016, or that they did and they were wrong. I can see the principled argument there too: in the face of a small democratic mandate, it's tricky to back out of.

The Norway option has the virtue of allowing MP's cover to vote for it, whilst also being as close to Remain as you can get. They can say "Well, we are leaving the EU" - and for once, use the ambiguity of "what the people voted for" as an advantage to work around the mouth-frothers on the Tory right.

Obviously, staying in the EU is materially the better choice, but it's a much, much harder sell politically, because of the godforsaken referendum we used to put ourselves in this position in the first place.

On the Brexit-supporting side, the advantage of the Norway option is that it can be framed as "Norway for now" - a stepping stone to a greater Brexit (you know, the one with the unicorns). I'm pretty sure this is the favoured option of the supposed intellectuals on that side of the debate, as it's an existing option that has a basis in reality, avoids the absolute crashing out of no-deal, and still fulfils the technical requirements of "leaving" the EU.

Isn't the problem with Norway(plus) that anything that retains freedom of movement probably still won't fly?

It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.

Looking around at the alternatives, it seems like none of the available options will fly, but N+ is the least likely to crash. Starting at the far end:

No deal - no chance, except inadvertently.

Canada+ - Very unlikely, largely because the EU won't see any reason to negotiate on the deal already in place or extend A50 to do so, leading back to No Deal. Nobody's going to let that one be what goes back to the EU. Also, still doesn't resolve the border issue with Ireland, which I'm sure the EU would love to open up again. Or not.

May's deal: Evidently not going to fly.

Norway+: - includes FoM, but aside from that, saves a lot of face; probably/maybe has a cross-parliamentary majority? Has no border issue with Ireland. Leads to massive media shitshow for a few months, then they go back to blaming the EU for everything like before

Remain via referendum - Maaaaybe, but massive logistical issues. Risk that people vote to No Deal on purpose, because people are idiots. Leads to massive media shitshow forever.

Remain via A50 revocation - No chance unless the other option is No Deal, a day or two before we set ourselves on fire. Even then I wouldn't place a bet.

Basically, nothing is flying, which is why the while thing is such an enormous cluster. I reckon Norway+ is the one with the most chance of going in once the pressure really goes up, but..who knows.

I was busy yesterday but I'm sure checking back I'll see that Jeremy Corbyn utterly eviscerated May at PMQs by holding those three government defeats over her head and thoroughly oh wait never mind he spent all six questions asking about something else.

Latest poll still has him coming third in a two horse race to be the people's choice for the next PM.

I was busy yesterday but I'm sure checking back I'll see that Jeremy Corbyn utterly eviscerated May at PMQs by holding those three government defeats over her head and thoroughly oh wait never mind he spent all six questions asking about something else.

Latest poll still has him coming third in a two horse race to be the people's choice for the next PM.

Hang on, he didn't ask one question about Brexit? What did he ask about?

+2

surrealitycheckthe search for the means to put an end to thingsan end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered Userregular

So in order to explain the "Norway" version of the EU membership, we have a short history lesson. Norway has in fact applied to be in the EU three times (62, 67 and 94). The first application got scrapped by De Gaulle due to him opposing British membership so Norways application got scrapped as well. The second one was voted on by the public and got 53 % no. The third one led to a big vote among the public also led to a no with 52 %. Both votes were mainly geographical split between the south counties voting yes and the rest voting no. The third vote was interesting due to being in the EEC at the time, giving the yes vote the argument: "We are already mostly in the EU but no ability to vote or decide. Why not just join?". In party lines there's a mix where center right tends to favor and left being against. There are still discussions from time to time about joining the EU, but it always get quagmired in a couple of places:

1. Norway's market too weak to compete - There's a strong belief that if Norway ends up joining the EU, most of the primary sector (farming, OIL!, fishing) will lose a lot of money to cheaper European products. This of course means that due to Norway not joining, has higher food prices in comparison and has some big monopolies in the market.
2. EU's market ideology - The unions in Norway are pretty strong and there's a strong sense from older left parties that if Norway joins, some of the benefits that the unions have will be lost.
3. RAW RAW WE BE OWN BOSSES - Like all countries when nationalism comes into play, people get very conservative. "We have had it good so far, so let's keep this situation going" is a very strong belief to just status quo this shit.

So the Norway being in the EEA (European Economic Area), the EFTA (which Swittzerland is the only other member) and in the Schengen agreement, here's what Norway has agreed to so far:

Follow whatever agreement, ISOs that the EU agrees to.

Be an observer during discussions of deals, but not have a vote.

Allow freedom of movement without passport checking as long as you come from one of the countries in the Schengen Agreement.

Ability to set up some tariffs if needed, but highly encouraged to not go crazy with it and focus on keeping free trade free.

The reason it kinda works in Norway is due to Nordic Council giving us a very strong connection with other nordic countries which are in the EU. Having large amounts of Oil and state majority control of the company that drills it which gives Norway a sorta safe money reserve (Currently at around 8346 billion NOK if This site is correct. It has enough money to cushion whatever market blows it incurs due to not being in the EU.

Voting for what they want rather than what they need. A betrayal of his own constituency to cover his seat, he should cast his vote based on what he believes is right and face the consequences at the ballot box.

And they're not doing a great job as selling themselves here as the pro-Remain guys. Sure it's just one MP, but they only have twelve of them.

Their main identity at this point seems to be the party that embraces a few single issues to show how unique they are, then betrays the public on those issues the moment they get in power. So, this pretty much is in-line with what the party is selling.

Even with only 12 MPs and a stated party goal of keeping the UK in the EU, the Lib Dems still manage to have internal divisions over Brexit. Is no party safe?

I suppose the only thing keeping the Greens from fighting over it is that they've only got one MP.

I do find it interesting that for a vote that nearly 50% of the population voted against there is no real coherent remain push that seems to be championed by any of the parties. Seems like maybe it is time for a new party to form if the will of almost half the population is silent.

Launching a party on the back of ignoring a democratic vote is a tough sell, for good reasons. The most anyone seems prepared to do is plump for a second referendum, but, so far, Labour aren't after that because they'd rather have a general election which they think they can win. It's one of the most extraordinarily cynical judgements I've seen a political leader make. If they can't get a general election they might try for a second referendum.

The Tories are mostly against it because it's mostly their voters who wanted to Leave, so they don't want to upset their supporters, even though the vast majority know how bad its going to be.

People say that Leavers would never vote for a party that went with a Remain policy and I think that's untrue. Frank Fields is the archetypical Labour Leave guy, do you think he'll ever vote Tory? He'd die first.

Labour staked out their brexit position at a time when they thought their base was a lot more pro-leave than subsequently turned out to be the case.

A big part of that is that it makes a material difference whether you're talking about Labour members, voters, supporters, or constituencies. As the polling has got more sophisticated the picture has gradually emerged that Labour voters are not as gung-ho as some within the party seem to have assumed. I also vaguely recall that Labour leave voters are the most likely to have swung to remain, to the extent that any group of leave voters have changed their mind.