Tuesday, August 26, 2008

NC President: More of the Same

John McCain 45Barack Obama 42Bob Barr 4

For the second month in a row PPP shows Barack Obama trailing by three points in North Carolina.

One of two things is going to have to happen for Obama to win the state: he's going to have to up his share of the white vote, probably by bringing out voters under 30 in extreme record numbers, or he's going to need black voters to turn out at a rate disproportionate to their representation in the overall population, something that would be virtually unprecedented.

For now PPP projects black turnout at 21%, in line with the proportion of black registered voters in the state, and an increase from 18.6% in the 2004 Presidential election. Right now Obama is polling at 84% with the black vote, so although he has a little bit of room to move there it's not enough to win the state unless the black vote approaches 23 or 24% or if he improves with white voters.

With those white voters he currently trails 57-30. He probably needs to win about 36% of the white vote to take the state with a 21% black electorate, so he has a ways to go there but could make up some of that gap on college campuses around the state this fall.

Beyond that the race breaks out in a predictable manner. Obama leads with women and voters under 45, McCain has the advantage with men and older voters.

4 comments:

Unlike the last poll this one contains a large number of Dems in it (50%) while the last one had it at 43%. The 15% disparity between Dems and Reps is extraordinary (PPPs last poll pegged the disparity at 8%), but what is more is that Obama still trails even with that built in advantage. Unless the Indies break his way, African Americans turn out in slightly higher percentage, and some of the older Dems come back to his tent, I really do not see how he will win in NC.

just to remind you guys our country has far more democrats then republicans, so obviously when you do a poll you involve more democrats! i wonder why many consider north carolina as not able to go blue, regardless of these polls being so close, and the ground game of the obama camp being so incredible? come

this is not a national poll.And the democrats don´t have a 15-point Party-Identification advantage, neither national nor here.The point anonymous raises is valid I think, especially given the fact that PPP´s party id numbers for several other polls (Ohio) were also strange. Are the polls weighted by Party ID?