Thursday, December 21st. 11am

This is probably the last live update it will be necessary to do given it is all over bar the shouting.

Preliminary numbers for the singles chart as of the close of play on Wednesday indicate that Perfect has notched up almost 68,000 chart sales compared to 52,000 for River. Last Christmas languishes in third place with 45,000. That’s with significant streaming information missing (that is late arriving as always and doesn’t get folded into the live numbers until lunchtime) but based on yesterday’s calculations that only closes the gap by 1,000 chart sales or so.

Whether 13,000 or 14,000 copies in the lead it doesn’t matter. Ed Sheeran and friends are out of sight in the Christmas Number One race.

Wednesday, December 20th. 6pm

I should have just waited. Music Week has updated the midweeks this evening and given us some numbers to play with.

Suffice to say the surmising below is correct. 56,366 sales so far this week for Perfect are playing 42,836 for River. That’s a lead of more than 13,000. Which is pretty much insurmountable. For those agitating for Last Christmas to give poor late George a Number One as a tribute, note that it is as of close of play on Wednesday more than 20,000 chart sales behind Ed Sheeran. All the plugs on This Morning in the world aren’t going to help it from here.

Perfect by Ed Sheeran is the 2017 Christmas Number One. You read it here first.

Wednesday, December 20th. 2pm

I’ve got literally nothing concrete to report here, which has made for a curious couple of days. There’s a conspicuous lack of updates from anywhere official, be it Music Week or the Official Charts Company themselves. That would suggest they are happy to let speculation ride, and avoid clueing anyone into just how the gap between the Ed and Eminem singles is progressing.

But what we can do is make some educated guesses based on accessible numbers. We don’t have hard numbers, but do have sales proportions based on the iTunes popularity bars, which are a reliable barometer of how singles are selling in relation to each other, even if we don’t physically know how many that is.

So, at the time of writing although River remains the top-selling individual single of the last 24 hours, as it has been since release, it still cannot compete with the multiple versions of Perfect. All three of them are occupying places in the iTunes Top 10 and adding up their numbers we can conclude that as of right now Perfect is selling 185% of the amount River is. Which is one hell of a lead.

Over on Spotify, it is a different story. At the start of the week, Eminem’s numbers went berzerk, rocketing up by a fifth to further extend his lead at the top of the market. These are always a day behind. but we do know that on Tuesday (19th) River was streamed 605,460 times in the UK. The individual versions of Perfect are some distance behind (and indeed Perfect Symphony just hasn’t managed any market traction at all). Combined they only add up to 492,578 copies. Or a little over 100,000 copies behind.

So to put it another way, we know that Eminem is ahead of Ed Sheeran on the streaming side of things by the order of about 666 chart sales each day. But remember that sales lead above? If we take a guess and assume that River is selling 10,000 copies a day on iTunes (which may be an exaggeration or it may be underestimating it we just don’t know), then that means the combined sales of Perfect are 18,500 a day. That sounds a lot, so even if we halve the numbers we still end up with 5,000 placing 9,250. So Ed’s sales lead is anything between 4,000 to 8,000 copies s day. And that’s way more than the 666 copies a day that Eminem has on Spotify.

Now admittedly this is only based on one retailer for each market sector, but they are each far and away the leaders. So any differences in the numbers from other platforms are unlikely to skew these calculations too much. But based on the figures above, Ed Sheeran’s lead of 4,000 sales from the Monday midweek has almost certainly increased in the 48 hours since.

I’m still calling Christmas Number One 2017 for Ed Sheeran.

Monday, December 18th. 9pm

A busy old day today, for sure. Ed Sheeran is keeping things interesting.

First, here’s me chatting with the BBC News website to add some colour to their own story on the official midweek update which landed at 6pm.

As for the update itself, well the headline story was kind of what we were expecting based on guesses from the available numbers. According to the Official Charts Company, the combined versions of Ed Sheeran’s Perfect are enough to ensure it is the most-purchased track so far this week, Eminem’s residency at the top of the iTunes table notwithstanding. On streams, however, the reverse is true and indeed the midweek figures reflect what we’ve been reading from Spotify since the weekend. Combined, the streams of Ed’s track are strong but still not quite strong enough to overhaul the enormous popularity of River. It is even managing to withhold the onslaught of All I Want For Christmas Is You to ensure that perhaps incredibly (and reassuringly) the most played track of the moment is an up to the minute hip-hop album cut rather than a tired festive favourite.

My interview with the BBC was based on the vague details we had at the time, the press release from the Official Charts Company (and their subsequent website story) playing up the fact that the race is very close indeed. Suggesting we have a genuine battle on our hands.

Leaked figures suggest a slightly different story, most indications seem to be that Perfect has done 34,000 copies so far this week with River lagging behind on 26,000. The Wham! single in third place is indeed a very close third, but only in the sense of being another 4,000 copies distant.

Right now, Christmas Number One is Ed Sheeran’s (as a lead artist) to lose. It all comes down to what happens next to the Eminem track now that we are beyond the weekend. Sag or surge. The next 24 hours will confirm whether this is actually still a race.

Meanwhile, over on the Facebook group desperate to see a 33-year-old single which people listen to every year regardless top the charts, they aren’t taking the news very well.

Monday, December 18th. 3pm

Patiently awaiting the lifting of the 6pm embargo on the official singles chart midweeks, so to pass the time let’s note what seems to now be the regular Monday morning “people being grumpy at bookmakers” thread.

As we noted at the weekend, there’s a mysterious lack of Eminem in the latest odds for Christmas Number One, this despite all indications being he is now one of the leading contenders to grab the crown. The problem is the presence of Ed Sheeran on the Eminem track. Having tied themselves in knots over the whole issue of whether the Beyonce duet counts as the same record as Ed solo, most bookmakers cheerfully converted all Ed Sheeran stakes into bets on “Ed Sheeran solo or duet”. But that is clearly intended to cover his own record. What happens if he is the guest on someone else’s? One chap on Twitter atempted to find out:

@AskPaddyPower Hi. Can I get a price for Eminem (feat. Ed Sheeran) on Christmas Number 1? Or, given that your market has “Ed Sheeran (Either Solo or Duet)” as an option, would that count in the instance of Eminem (feat. Ed Sheeran) going to #1?

Except that’s wrong and that’s not what they are doing. At the time of writing no bookmakers have laid odds on Eminem being Christmas Number One, precisely because if they do they will have to pay out twice if he does it – to those punters backing Eminem and also to those who backed what is now established as a bet on “anything with Ed Sheeran on it”. And technically you cannot have a first-past-the-post market where two winning lines are possible. Unless they apply their own dead heat rules which will cause no small degree of social media fume.

However, this does raise the scenario of Eminem and Ed topping the Christmas charts and the bookmakers electing not to pay out given that Ed is only the guest star and not the lead artist. Although then they would technically have to void the entire lot, given that no odds were ever laid on what was eventually the winning act.

The moral? If we ever see Christmas Number One betting again, you can bet your life we’ll have to bet on the title of the song that tops the charts, not the artist as has traditionally been the case.

4pm Update:

Paddy Power eventually clarified the position, one which we can asume is being followed by all the other bookmakers:

Our traders have advised that because Ed Sheeran also sings on the record this falls under our Ed Sheeran (Either Solo or Duet) selection on site.

…and that’s why, confusing though it may be, you cannot bet on Emimen being Christmas Number One. Because of the chap who appears on his record. Even if that isn’t the one people were betting on in the first place.

Sunday, December 17th. 5pm

Sunday means nobody at work in offices so nobody to put out anything resembling a full status update on the Christmas Number One race. All I can say is that for the moment it is quite intriguing, simply because the multiple versions factor means it is more or less impossible to read anything into the available live charts. Although since when did that stop us?

On the face of it, Eminem’s River is surging ahead. It has been lodged at the top of iTunes ever since release and according to the Spotify numbers made available this lunchtime, has consolidated its position as the most streamed track of the moment. As I noted before, take this with a small pinch of salt, Eminem hits burn out very quickly indeed and his progress once we move beyond the weekend is more significant than anything he does now.

Ed Sheeran performed on the Strictly Come Dancing final show on Saturday night, and that at the very least sent his online sales berzerk. Perfect Duet is at No.2 on iTunes with Perfect Symphony just behind at 3. Meanwhile, the original album version is at the present moment the sixth most-purchased single of the last 24 hours. Cumulatively all are enough to wipe out whatever sales lead Eminem might otherwise have had.

Streaming though continues to be the problem child, maybe surprisingly for a man who was streamed so much in the spring his entire album swamped the Top 20. The three versions of Perfect combined clocked up a total of 511,703 streams on Saturday, just short of the 545,077 enjoyed by the Eminem track. The tactic of releasing multiple takes of the song has almost certainly given it a boost in the rump of the sales market, but there is little evidence so far that it has had a significant effect on its streams. People are listening to the track, but selecting their favourite version and sticking with it rather than necessarily consuming them all together.

On balance though, Ed has an edge still which would concur with the early flashes we saw on Saturday. If he keeps that up during the week he should still be on course to be Christmas Number One, with or without any Eminem drop-off.

As for Christmas classics? They are up there too, but I suspect both Mariah and Wham! are going to be left knocking on the door of the Ed and Eminem (with Ed) show.

Meanwhile, there’s still no further whispers of the phantom Adele single. And the bookies remain bizarrely leaden-footed with not one of the major firms yet offering odds on an Eminem victory. With five days to go, we are in the extraordinary situation of not being able to back the single which stands an even money chance of winning the race.

Saturday, December 16th. 3pm

We are a little over 24 hours into the chart week, so what do we know so far?

Based on a Saturday lunchtime sales flash from the Official Charts Company, Ed is ahead already. This one seems to be a little more meaningful than the one they issued this time last year. Back then we had an update which featured zero streaming information and gave an artificially high indication as to the status of some singles. Many of which in the event never even made the Top 75. This time they appear to have more data to work with, and all seems to be in order with the news that Perfect has a narrow edge over his nearest rival.

That nearest rival is indeed something out of left field rather than the tedium of Mariah or Wham! Eminem’s new album Revival is released this week and naturally enough many of its tracks have taken up residence in the top streamed tracks of the moment. Far and away the most popular though is one called River which features the additional vocal talents of one E. Sheeran. At the time of writing it is the solid sales leader on iTunes and was the most played track on Spotify on Friday. I’m cautious as to how to view this, as big deal Eminem singles tend to open strongly and then fade away as the week progresses. Plus you must remember there is only one of him and a great many different versions of Ed Sheeran. I’d actually love a Christmas chart race to be between two contemporary and brand new hit singles (even if the same man appears on both). Let’s just hope that he keeps up.

There is one rather startling move on what might be an otherwise moribund betting market. All the major bookmakers still taking bets on Christmas Number One suddenly installed Adele as second favourite, at odds of an average of 3-1, late on Friday afternoon. This appears to be down to reports in Friday’s newspapers that she is planning a charity release of her own, tying in with her own interest in the ongoing plight (if we can call it that) of those displaced by the Grenfell Tower disaster. For now this is a ghost single, nothing has been announced or released. But that’s not to say such a record couldn’t suddenly become a Number One contender, even if released midweek at the last minute. Yes, we’ve already had a Grenfell charity single top the charts this year, so you do kind of wonder what the appetite for another will be. But never underestimate people’s desire to virtue signal or just try to attract good karma with a sideways charity donation at Christmas. However with every passing hour that no such single materialises, the greater the challenge will be to propel it to the top of the charts.

Speaking of the bookmakers. How funny is it that nobody is actually offering odds on an Eminem Christmas Number One? At least not at the time of writing.

Friday, December 15th. 2pm.

The talking is over, let Christmas battle commence.

We are now formally into the sales week which will determine the identity of the 2017 Christmas Number One. All sales and streams logged from midnight last night until midnight next Thursday will count towards the compilation of the Official UK Singles chart. It is due for public unveiling by Radio One from 4pm next Friday. During the course of the next week, this particular blog will analyse the latest numbers, rumours and market movements as they become available. I hope to give you a heads up as to just how the charts next week are shaping up.

Last year was enormous fun. This year, not so much. Today Ed Sheeran released what is now to be called Perfect Symphony, a brand new version of his current Number One record featuring a new guest vocal from Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli. Sales and streams of this will combine with both the original Perfect and the Beyonce-featured Perfect Duet. He clearly wants to be Christmas Number One and he and his label have gone all out to achieve this. Having gamed the singles market last winter with a simultaneous single release, ensuring Ed locked down the top end of the charts right the way through to the release of his album, the singer and his label have apparently gamed the Christmas market too. Ed Sheeran will start and end 2017 on the top of the charts.

That is unless Mariah Carey pulls off a Christmas miracle with a track over two decades old. Mind you, it is not as if there is room to bet on this. Some of the fun in previous years has been in monitoring the Xmas Number One market on the Betfair Exchange and watching the flow of money in real time. Having tied themselves in knots over the whole Ed/Beyonce issue and been forced to void the existing market, the online bookmaker hasn’t seen fit to create a new one. Possibly because they also know this race is more or less a foregone conclusion and the liquidity in it for other contenders will be practically zero.

For the very latest Christmas Number One odds from all the online and high street bookmakers, just go to Oddschecker.com

December 13th, 1pm

So what of the other contenders that were, given we are all but assuming Ed Sheeran has wrapped things up?

If you backed Rita Ora, sadly it looks like you did your money. Just like I did. Two weeks ago it wasn’t a completely fanciful notion that she might ascend to Number One and stick there, but crucially she needed to get there in the first place to have a position to consolidate. Three solid weeks of knocking at the door essentially sapped all the momentum she had with Anywhere and right now although still popular, the single is on the verge of fading away. Number 2 was for her a huge success, cementing her big mainstream chart comeback this year. But Christmas Number One was just never to be.

Do X Factor winners Rak-Su stand a chance? Certainly, they impressed the first week out, their debut single Dimelo complete with Wyclef Jean and Naughty Boy in tow made good the potential deficit of not being available until Sunday evening. It raced to a solid Number 2 chart position to become the highest charting X Factor winner’s single for three years. But you still have to remember that these sales were largely front loaded, a result of the outpouring of support they enjoyed in the wake of triumphing on the TV talent show. In order to remain this close to the top of the charts they have to cross over into a wider audience. This is by no means impossible given the music they perform and the entertainment value they provide, but on midweek evidence this just isn’t happening. Dimelo remains a distant second on iTunes behind Perfect Duet and their Spotify streams are showing little sign of advancing beyond 160,000 or so a day. That’s barely enough to put them in the Top 30 streamed tracks of the moment. Number One is beyond them based on current evidence.

The one wild card remains the festive classics, and in particular the near-constant seasonal champion All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey. Just as last week, the weekend saw demand for the festive favourites go through the roof once more. The Mariah track is swapping places on a regular basis with Post Malone’s Rockstar at the top of the daily Spotify listings and has essentially moved into the pole position online it seems destined to occupy from now until the end of the year. It isn’t quite the most streamed track overall, the two competing versions of the Ed Sheeran song meaning that combined it is managing about 439,000 plays a day compared to Mariah’s 350,000. But that is by no means an insurmountable deficit. The jury is out on just how many streams the Bocelli version of Perfect will add, and as we move closer to Christmas itself and the demand for Christmas songs grows even larger it would be dangerous to completely rule out the possibility of an upset. And fascinatingly the bookmakers have not cottoned on to this yet. They seem to have a sentimental attachment to Last Christmas, pushing Mariah out as far as 9-1 in some place. If an upset does indeed take place that will be an absolute mugging for them.

Hoping that a 23-year-old record poses some kind of challenge to the market leader to give us some kind of race next week. That’s how far we’ve fallen people. Two more days of the phoney war to go anyway, then the survey for the Christmas chart can properly begin.

December 12th, 6pm

So with a few days having passed and the dust settled on the latest UK singles charts, what have we learned about the prospects for the Christmas Number One in a week and a half?

Well, working on the continuing theory that the single which replaced Camila Cabello’s Havana at the top of the charts is effectively nailed on, we can presume that Ed Sheeran and Perfect will be top of the charts for the next fortnight with some ease. The release of the brand new Perfect Duet version resulted in what Music Week reported as a 174.9% week on week increase in chart sales. The Ed Sheeran track vaulted to the top of the charts to give him his fourth UK Number One with a sale easily double that of his nearest rivals (who themselves clocked up that total in a little over four days).

Shortly after the announcement on Friday it became clear why his label rejected the idea of adding duet partner Beyonce to the single’s chart credits. Because there is yet another duet version of the track set for release, this being a rather less well kept secret this time around and so in short order, it was revealed that in the week of the Christmas chart itself there will be one final(?) version of Perfect released, this time with Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli on co-vocals.

Now, whilst this may not quite give the single the kind of boost the Beyonce version did, it is yet another set of sales and streams to add to the cumulative today. This essentially pushes the single far out of the reach of practically everything else in the market. The multiple versions of the same single stunt has been tried before, most notably by “chartjacker” Alex Day in 2011, but never on this kind of scale by a mainstream and established act. The man who began the year by releasing two singles at once and nailing down the Top 2 for weeks on end and who released an album in the spring which saw every single one of its tracks enter the Top 20 is now going to top the charts for Christmas by gaming his single in a quite inspired manner.

Is it a racing certainty? Well yes, if you believe the bookmakers, with literally no value to be obtained from any kind of bet on Ed Sheeran (or his multiple partners) right now. But that’s not to say there aren’t other contenders. In the next update later tonight I’ll deal with who they are and just why they might still be in with a chance.

For the very latest Christmas Number One odds from all the online and high street bookmakers, just go to Oddschecker.com

December 6th, 3pm

The plot thickens. Last night Betfair voided the ENTIRE exchange market on Christmas Number One. I haven’t had this much fun since all the bookmakers installed “Strictly Come Dancing Theme” as the favourite when no such record existed or was planned.

PLEASE NOTE – In light of recent events, The Betfair Exchange team have decided to void the Xmas Number 1 market in its entirety due to uncertainty about the potential result 1/2

December 6th, 1pm

Now much of the talk about the anticipation of the Christmas Number One race is framed in the context of the bookmaker’s odds. At the end of the day that is what much of this is about, the whole idea of the Number One record at the end of December being something special largely an invention of William Hill back in 1984.

But secretly the bookmakers hate markets like this. They are way out of their comfort zone, trying to price up a market of which they have no understanding and which is subject to the whims and tastes of the general public rather than performance on a sports pitch. It is a good publicity tool and sucks in a casual punter who might not gamble with them any other time of year save for Grand National weekend. But the risk they take is enormous. Especially when they are offering odds at the end of November or the start of December. They don’t know any more than we do what may or may not be selling – or even released – five or six weeks hence. So the early odds are largely guesswork. And if they’ve guessed incorrectly, they take drastic steps to correct themselves.

I was alerted on Monday to a series of tweets from one grumpy punter who has discovered his apparently shrewd stake at significant odds on an Ed Sheeran victory seemed set to be all but voided by SkyBet. The issue is the appearance of Beyonce alongside Ed on his single. Most bookmakers sensibly converted the existing market in line with changing circumstances. My bet with Ladbrokes on Ed at 5-1 is now a bet on Ed/Beyonce instead and the stake rides.

Not so at SkyBet, who earlier in the week appeared to have decided on a whim that a bet for “Ed Sheeran” is different to that of “Ed Sheeran and Beyonce” and are running both markets side by side. The implication is clear. If Ed/Bey top the charts for Christmas, then all those punters who backed him solo back in November were going to be out of luck. Their bet would be a losing one. That’s actually nothing short of a disgrace.

Some shady actions happening at @SkyBet Which is annoying, as I have used them for many years. Looks like you change the rules when it suits you.

As late as Tuesday evening this was still the case on their site. You could back Ed/Beyonce at odds-on and Ed alone at a now massive 14-1. I noted at the time this was set to bite them on the backside, as it is looking unlikely that Beyonce is even going to be credited on the singles chart. Technically a bet for “Ed Sheeran” would have been a winning one according to the arbitrary rules SkyBet had elected to apply.

As of this lunchtime though they have changed their minds, and on SkyBet you can now get 8/11 for “Ed Sheeran (Solo or in Duet)”. Quite what has happened to those punters who had staked separately on solo and duet lines remains to be seen.

Mind you, they are still tied up in knots over different artists and different credits. Why else is it possible to back Clean Bandit three different ways at three different prices to be Christmas Number One? Bookmakers hate betting on pop music. This illustrates why.

December 5th, 3pm

Another day, another Spotify update. And this one is equally as startling as the Christmas songs have all fallen back sharply.

They are still huge, but not chart-swampingly huge as appeared to be the trend 24 hours ago. Most have seen their streams cut by close to a quarter of the numbers they did over the weekend. Based on past form this isn’t totally unexpected. Christmas songs tend to become more popular approaching and over the weekend, and there may be some further sagging as the days pass this week. That said, this still means they are starting from a much higher level than we’ve ever seen before. Where people like Mariah and Wham! chart on Friday will be a bassline, not an expected peak.

In the meantime, the focus can return to the important stuff. How far ahead will Ed (and Beyonce) be? How much of an impact will X Factor winners Rak-Su make (given the rest of the market had a two day stat). And how on earth is Rockstar still being streamed more than any other single, six weeks after it was knocked off the top of the charts?

December 4th, 10pm

So remember all that stuff I said last week about the Christmas songs being destined to peak far too late at streaming to have any kind of impact on the Christmas chart? Ignore it. Because as it so often the case with anything to do with chart watching, particularly in this day and age, everything we know is completely wrong.

This is a snapshot of the Spotify daily chart for Sunday, December 3rd. Reflecting a situation which seemed to spring up out of nowhere two days earlier.

I’m not going to lie to you, that is pretty damn scary. Because this has literally never happened before. It is almost as if the recent cultural phenomenon of the British public declaring the onset of advent to be “the start of Christmas” and flinging up decorations, both internal and external, as well as pitching up to the office wearing fluffy antlers has extended to tastes in music. Whereas once we would grumble at radio stations stirring in festive songs before even the first few advent chocolates had been consumed, now we are on the verge of a situation where contemporary popular music is being swept aside by listening patterns which focus solely on songs made 20-30 years ago. And in some cases far older.

Yet the true reason for this is far subtler than that. Because it is Spotify themselves who seem to be solely responsible for this incredible skew. Literally the first tile on their “genres and moods” screen in the app points to Christmas playlists. And if you happen to be in the mood for that kind of thing, they are making it easy for you.

Indeed if you click through to the first offered playlist “Christmas Is Coming”, what are the first few songs in that list? You guessed it, the exact same songs which have barged their way to the top of the live charts.

Even the appearance of the previously unknown Ariana Grande track Santa Tell Me at Number 17 on Sunday’s daily live chart is explained by this playlist – it is the seventh track on it.

Why is this all significant? Well because Spotify for good or ill owns the lions’ share of music streaming and has the most sway over the numbers which go to make up the Official UK Singles chart. If their subscriber base continue to hit this playlist (and others like it) in those kind of numbers then all talk and speculation over which contemporary hit single stands the most chance of becoming Christmas Number One becomes moot. Because aged classics like All I Want For Christmas Is You and Do They Know It’s Christmas will barge everything else out of the way.

This is why compilers such as Billboard have long had a policy of excluding tracks from the vintage long tail from the reckoning that compiles the Hot 100. The British charts have traditionally taken a more relaxed stance. It if sells (or plays) then it goes in, a policy which has led to some quite joyful spontaneous comebacks for older hits in the past. But if we end up in a situation where the December charts are full of exactly the same old songs, in exactly the same order year in, year out, you can guarantee there will be voices for change from within the industry.

This will also be grist to the mill for those grumblers who moan that passive playlist listening should not be part of the streaming numbers that count towards chart compilation. My argument to counter that has always been that you still have to listen to a song for at least 30 seconds for that to happen, and if something on a playlist has that “shit click” factor then it will be skipped in numbers equally as large. The cream will rise to the top. The problem is that Christmas classics have no shit click factor. They are classics because they are so loved. And if you have chosen to stream a playlist of these vintage songs, it is highly unlikely you will dislike any of them enough to skip ahead before the 30 second cut off point.

For now, this has stood even the current chart race on its head. Sheronce were supposed to be more or less a lock for Number One from now until the end of the year. I’m genuinely unsure as to whether this is still going to be the case.

November 30th, 6pm

So it is Beyonce.

One of the more intriguing questions of the week was finally answered by Ed Sheeran on Thursday lunchtime, leading those select few in the industry who knew and who were sworn to secrecy to finally breathe a sigh of relief that they are allowed to talk about it. The question of whether this new “remix” is any good for now remains unanswered. My only guidance here is the the view of one contact who responded in the negative. Quality aside, there is no doubting this new version will give Perfect a significant sales and streaming boost. Enough most probably to send it to the top of the charts next week. Enough to stay there another fortnight? That remains to be seen. The bookmakers know which side of the argument they are on. Ed Sheeran (with or without Beyonce) is now odds-on favourite to be Christmas Number One.

November 26th, 11pm

Christmas Number One 2017 won’t be Last Christmas by Wham!/George Michael.

That may sound a bold statement to make, especially given that the golden oldie was installed as an early favourite by just about every bookmaker going, still at the time of writing the favourite choice even on the more informed Betfair Exchange markets. On the face of it, it is an obvious sentimental choice, a final commemoration of poor late George Michael, coinciding with the first anniversary of his death.

It also isn’t totally out of the question that a festive classic could end up dominating the singles market by the end of December. As Christmas approaches these seasonal favourites are streamed in ever-larger numbers. Sweeping aside all other contemporary hits to become virtually the only songs played online in large numbers. This is indeed what happened last year, the Spotify daily charts for Christmas day almost totally dominated by Christmas songs. Last Christmas naturally one of them.

But that was on Christmas Day itself, when these songs reach their natural peak. And as I noted the bottom of this piece, the Christmas chart will be based on the market totals between the 15th and 21st of December. During which time the golden oldies will be nowhere near their streaming peak, just as last year. Factor in sales too – Last Christmas is already selling steadily as it and its companions always do at this time of year, edging their way into the iTunes chart. In order for an old single to stand a chance of topping the charts in that particular week, those still bereft of a copy would be required to hold off from purchasing one until that week in particular. And that just isn’t going to happen. Because it isn’t happening right now.

Also, let us face it, it is hardly something to aspire to. A tired 33-year-old song which every casual music fan in the country knows backwards managing to outpoint every other contemporary hit single the week before the holiday? I can’t think of anything more disappointing to see. And thankfully we won’t have to.

No, Last Christmas won’t be Christmas Number One. And by installing it as favourite the bookmakers are set to make a fortune from those suckered in by the hype.

November 25th, 6pm

An update from Oddschecker who have noticed the amount of money flowing through them for Ed. According to their figures, over 40% of all bets placed in the last 48 hours have been for Perfect. Savvy punters have spotted what we noted yesterday. The prospect of a new version of the single gives it a very important edge.

November 24th, 12pm

Ed Sheeran just announced something significant.

Contacts within the industry had in the past few days passed on chatter that “something big” was planned in relation to his current hit single Perfect. Whilst its presence near the top end of the singles charts at present always made it a possible contender, it seemed a tough ask to expect it to climb to the top for Christmas. This is a track which has already peaked at Number 4 back in March when it was an album cut, was reactivated as a single two months ago and has spent three straight weeks locked at Number 6. It was going to need a hell of a kick to propel it close to the top of the charts.

Well, now it looks like it has one. The Official Charts Company are quoting an interview he has given to Channel 4 Radio in the UAE where he has revealed that next Friday (1st) will see the release of a new “remix” of the track. “It’s a really fucking big deal. And I’ll drop who I’m doing it with next Thursday. The vibe is that it’s a remix to Perfect. I’m just basically going to ‘Despacito’ Perfect.”

Best odds you could get on Perfect being Christmas Number One on Friday lunchtime were 5-1 at Ladbrokes. I’ve a feeling that won’t last. Sheeran’s just delivered a brand new reason for even those who are bored of a track which hasn’t been off the radio since the summer a new reason to buy and listen to it.

November 23rd, 7pm

I know, I know. It seems early. But it really is that time of year again. That one time when even the most long-lapsed pop music fans suddenly start to take a keen interest in what is at the top of the UK charts. When everyone is suddenly a self-professed expert on something they pay absolutely no attention to the vast majority of the time. It is time for everyone to speculate just what will be Number One in time for Christmas. This also is the only time of year you can place bets directly on the pop charts, the bookmakers are also hoping to profit from this speculation along the way.

Well here is the good news. Because I’m a self-professed expert who happens to pay attention to the charts all year round. So on these pages over the next few weeks, I hope to be able to steer you through the minefield of speculation. Hopefully documenting along the way the market changes as the sales position becomes clearer.

It seems prudent to point out that much of the speculation you may read elsewhere will be wrong. The continuing exponential growth of the online music streaming market over the past year has changed the way the market for music operates forever. Assumptions based on the way things used to work (release big single the week before, watch everyone download it, profit) will inevitably be wrong. Whilst this year has seen its fair share of singles make instant chart impacts and fly straight to the top of the charts, there have equally been plenty which have traced a graceful upwards path and then once established at Number One sit there for an extended period.

Last year should have given you a clue as to the extent that the old rules no longer apply. Last year’s favourites failed. The parade of specially released singles with either a charitable or mischevious aim had simply faded away to nothing in Christmas week. Instead, the Christmas Number One was a proper pop record, Rockabye by Clean Bandit. It was one which had actually begun its life at the top of the charts at the end of November. Nobody in the mainstream media predicted this. Those of us who backed it at 66-1 in early December did, however.

So welcome along to this liveblog. Over the next few weeks I’ll explain just why some of the earliest assumptions as to the destiny of this year’s prize are wrong, keep a close eye on the betting markets and note where the smart money is going, and as the next few weeks progress shill blatantly for the Chart Watch UK site which will have the week by week analysis of each new singles chart.

The 2017 Christmas Number One will be announced on Friday, December 22nd at 6pm. It will be based on sales and streams (mostly streams) tallied between Friday 15th and Thursday 21st. Which is bad news for one single which is the early favourite in the bookmakers’ markets.