PANIC!! (Is What We Need)

No, I’m not yelling “Fire” in a crowded theater with that headline. I’m merely pointing out that the one major missing ingredient to this ugly, nasty start to the year has been panic. Aggressive, unadulterated selling that results from primal fear of losses.

Don’t believe me? Then just look at the S&P Volatility Index, or VIX. In August, it soared to more than 53 when the market melted down. In October 2014, it jumped to more than 31.

Want to go back even further? In the summer of 2011 when the debt ceiling debacle unfolded, it surged into the mid-to-high-40s multiple times over a period of several weeks. In the spring of 2010 when we had the Flash Crash, the VIX spiked above 30 several times — and jumped as high as 48 — over a period of a few weeks.

Then there are the credit crisis days of 2007-09. We saw several spikes into the mid-30s in the early phases of that crisis. Then there was the mother of all explosions in the fall of 2008 — to just shy of 100!

I’m not saying things are as bad now as they were when the Great Recession was raging … when Lehman Brothers was going under … when the Dow Industrials was swinging between 500 and 800 points every few days … or when former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was literally getting on his knees and begging Congress for hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout money.

Nail-biting time in the markets.

But can we all agree that the carnage in commodities is virtually unprecedented? Can we all agree that emerging-market currencies are plunging at some of the fastest rates ever, and in some cases, to the lowest levels ever?

Can we all agree that corporate earnings are disappointing, and that key sectors like autos, banks and tech are now in serious danger?

That more and more corners of the global economy, including China, are slipping into or close to recession?

That the junk bond, leveraged loan, and convertible bond markets are reeling?

You could argue that stocks are pricing in some of those problems by having the worst start to any year since at least 1896. And some Wall Street firms are clearly throwing in the towel.

But VIX hasn’t really soared (yet) and I haven’t (yet) really seen the huge “risk off” moves I’ve been expecting in things like the Japanese yen. Even at the worst level of the day, the VIX only hit 30.9.The evening news isn’t camped outside the New York Stock Exchange yet, nor are “bloodbath on Wall Street” stories plastered across the front page of your local newspaper.

That’s not to say today was a good day for stocks. It wasn’t, and a key contributor was the litany of putrid economic data we got.

Let’s start with retail sales for December. Overall sales fell 0.1%, ex-autos sales fell 0.1%, and ex-autos, ex-gas sales fell 0.5%. All of those readings missed forecasts. The full-year gain in sales — 2.1% — was the weakest going all the way back to 2009.

The Producer Price Index also fell 0.2% last month, underscoring disinflationary pressures on the economy. Industrial production plunged 0.4% in December, more than double the 0.2% decline that was forecast. Capacity utilization sank to 76.5%, the lowest since March 2012.

“I have been urging you for months to dramatically cut your stock exposure.”

Lastly, the Empire Manufacturing Index of factory sector conditions in the greater New York area plunged to -19.4 in January. That was far worse than the -4 reading that economists were expecting, and down sharply from -6.2 in December.

So what should you do? Well, hopefully you’re sitting pretty during this downturn because you followed the advice I’ve been offering since last spring to dramatically cut your stock exposure, raise much more cash and hedge/target downside profits with inverse ETFs and other profit-packed investments. If you have to own stocks, at least focus on highly rated, non-economically sensitive stocks.

If you haven’t taken protective action, then don’t wait any longer. Also feel free to check out my “Bear Market Playbook” columns from September, located here and here. They have more practical guidance.

(Editor’s note: Mike also has specific recommendations in his Interest Rate Speculator service. He just made some more “buy” and “sells” this week for subscribers.)

Lastly, and as always, stay safe and share your market thoughts at the website below. Your fellow investors will no doubt appreciate hearing your views in these turbulent times.

Our Readers Speak

The piece from my colleagues on Europe elicited several comments on the current economic and political situation there.

Reader J.R. said: “I am a former American diplomat and international businessman now retired in Europe with my European wife. The lack of fast action by E.U. leaders to get immediate control of the refugee crisis resembled their endless bungling with the Greece crisis. And now the one strong leader in the E.U., Merkel, is crumbling fast.

“I know a ranking Swedish doctor who is so fed up with the Swedes about the refugees and the way they are handling it, he is planning to leave Sweden. And you don’t seem to realize to a significant degree what an exit of the U.K. from the E.U. would do to the E.U. I think the E.U. is in deep trouble.”

Reader S.T. added: “The E.U. is on an unsustainable course. The sad part is, and of which I am convinced, when the E.U. goes down, they will bring the U.S. down with it. Many of our U.S. banks’ investments are tied in to the E.U. What affects them will eventually (probably shortly) affect us.”

But Reader Jim injected a bit of optimism into the debate, saying: “When you take into account all the incredibly dumb and destructive things the Europeans have done to themselves over the last hundred years, it’s a wonder they are still viable in any form. But they have shown themselves to be extremely creative and resilient over and over again.

“With their rich cultural history as a road guide, I can’t help but think they somehow manage to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat one more time. Rank social and economic policies and a few refugees are nothing compared to what they have overcome in the past. My money is on them.”

Thanks for sharing. I’m an economic and markets analyst first and foremost, rather than a specialist in European government activity or social policy. So my most useful contribution here would be to point out that the serious problems in Russia (a key trading partner) and China (another one) are major threats to Europe’s economy.

European banks are also loaded up with credit and market risk. And they’re getting slammed left and right with government investigations, multi-billion charges, and “requests” to raise more capital. Those forces will continue to weigh heavily on European stock markets.

General Electric (GE) agreed to sell its home appliance business to China’s Haier Group for $5.4 billion. Haier has been looking to expand into the U.S., while GE has been trying to jettison the business to focus on other units.

More Wall Street firms are pushing through layoffs in their fixed income and commodities businesses amid declining trading activity and slumping revenue. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) are both reportedly cutting jobs here. That adds to the thousands of other job cuts that banks have announced recently in New York, London, Asia, and continental Europe.

Speaking of Goldman, the firm just reached a $5.1 billion settlement over its activities in the mortgage backed securities market during the credit boom. The deal with the U.S. government will result in Goldman paying $2.4 billion in civil penalties to the Department of Justice, $875 million to other agencies, and $1.8 billion in aid to borrowers.

What do you think of the lousy economic data — does it show the U.S. is catching the global flu? Are bank layoffs going to continue, and what does that say about the health of the markets? Are you as “shocked” as I am to hear about yet ANOTHER multi-billion dollar settlement on Wall Street? Let me hear about it in the comment section below.

Until next time,

Mike Larson

Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:

Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.

{194 comments }

TimothyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 4:36 pm

America needs to stop spending money we do not have! the government can not spend money that they print out of thin air. We the people are in for a perfect storm.

jimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:16 pm

AMEN!!!!!!

Art PetrieFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:31 pm

We need to collect taxes on corporate income of US companies worldwide , pay down the debt close tax loopholes and elect better people to the House

Jack CFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:45 pm

Art, I agree with closing loop holes. However except for few crony corporations, America has taxed to the point of an exodus of manufacturing to foreign shores!
Suppose we tax every corporation at 100% taxation it would take several hundreds of years to pay down the current 19 trillion debt.
How do you think the 128 trillion in unfunded liabilities will take Americans down, verses the 19 trillion drop in the bucket? Also to consider the 210 trillion fiscal gap!
Repealing NAFTA, restructuring the corporate tax code to bring manufacturing back to American shores, repealing thousands of government over reach restrictive regulations combined with laws forcing our bloated government to operate within budget guidelines would address the national debt……..but then what about unfunded liabilities? As an eternal optimist, I’m pessimistic America has long passed a point of return not only economically but also morality, ethics and gaining speed off the cliff of godless from our once blessed land.

LangSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:40 am

“our once blessed land”,,, that’s rich.

We seem to forget just how this country was built and how many dead victims litter it’s landscape.

So “blessed”?
I don’t think so.

kennethMonday, January 18, 2016 at 1:41 am

I agree Lang! Mindless flag waving by “people pleasing yuppies” amidst a bunch of lying, greedy, saber rattling, falsely religious hypocrites takes the attention of the masses off of our real problems by those who wish to keepan iron grip on their power! Now, there was a guy who had a country that was in big debt and decided to stop trying to kiss the behind of the rich and creditors and just canceled his country’s debt and issued a new currency and extracted his country out of the Great Depression. Yes, I know what you are thinking! I am not a degenerate Nazi though! I merely bring this up to demonstrate that this country can take less extreme but still positive action and right the country’s financial structure in short order. Will some scum bag rich be affected? Will a number of our “friends” and foes alike not like it? Who’s more important? The few or the many? The U.S. can unilaterally call a moratorium on the entire national debt by calling in all our bonds and re-issuing new bonds at a rate of 60-65 cents on the dollar, creating a range of maturity on the new debt spread out to 100 year, 75 year, 50 year, and 30 year maturities and after enduring a 2-3 year period of “pain” embark on a new path of stable economic growth and even go back slightly into the hole by refunding Social Security into solvency and taxing everyone up to billionaires fully to support the Social Security Network ( not cutting tax payer obligation to $117,000 or whatever). And you know what? segregate that fund from access to it by corrupt politicians AND INVEST those contributions in investment grade stocks and bonds for the people by scrupulous individuals who can be trusted AND ANSWERABLE to the people! Do you have any idea what a segregated Social Security Fund that was invested for the public since 1935 would be worth today? And what the Dow Jones and S & P and total market value would be by today if they did that back then? There would be little debt and no insolvency in the U S of A today. It can still be done now. YOU JUST HAVE THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRY ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH RAM IT DOWN ALL THEIR THROATS! WHAT CAN THEY DO ABOUT IT? WHERE ARE THEY GOING TO GO? THE MOST IMPORTANT PEOPLE IN OUR COUNTRY ARE THE MASSES. THEY GET UP EVERY MORNING TO GO TO WORK AND ARE ROPED INTO HAVING TO FIGHT THE WARS THE ELITISTS ARRANGE FOR US WITH LIES AND DECEPTIONS!

ScottSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:48 am

Let’s get to the fact why America and for that matter any other country’s corporation’s offshore thier companies, “profit”. Plain and simple. You could lower the taxes to Zero and companies would crunch the numbers. If they would profit more by moving they would pack up tomorrow. There is no more pride in country.only in greed and profits.

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:10 pm

Not enough money there to make any difference… with the amount of debt that President Obama has run up….even if they confiscated it all.

SteveFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:50 pm

get real. The last thing the government is willing to do is pay down the debt. Besides, they have no money. They will continue to pay the interest until they can no longer sell bonds and then the party is over.

Jack CFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:59 pm

Steve, you mention “bonds” or “T-Bill’s “, which China was the largest consumer of. Was! The last three years China mad a major shift and in fact has been dumping them. Just as China, Russia , India and the U.K. along with dozens of smaller nations are dumping the petro dollar in the face of written agreements with Saudi Arabia from the 1970’s.

RE: John Kaseser: That’s the problem. He wants to run the show. But we are a Democracy, not a business with an all powerful CEO. I can’t see him working with Congress or anyone else in a cooperative fashion. He thinks he can effect change by the simple power of his personality. He doesn’t listen to anyone, and interrupts all the time.His idea of making Mexico pay for a wall is ridiculous. You can’t force another country to build and pay for a wall. His ideas are reminiscent of the pre-Hitler days in Germany. For anyone who’s read history, he is a frightening candidate.

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:11 pm

And that is like Obama. He refuses to compromise on anything. He never meets with Congress…..even his own party. Go it alone Barack.

GearheadFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:36 pm

Just like Obama running the show now, it’s ok for a liberal but not a cons? The policies of the last 7 years will catch up, gay rights free money and abortion will be the least concern as the financial spanking unfolds, we need to be the God fearing people America was built on, not the give me what I want now generation. Young people today have no moral obligation to be honest and work hard, they are being educated by the liberal s to believe a lie.

RoseFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:48 pm

Gearhead, you said it. Without God back on the throne we will suffer a lot here in the USA. I think that The EU deal is going to play a part in the anti-christ coming to power. He will say that he saved them and he can save the whole world if they give him control. It’s end times and if people don’t read their Bibles they will be caught with their pants down. LOL

satinFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:06 pm

doesn’t the bible say the antichrist will be just an ordinary person? not a politician or anyone of importance.

JoyceFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:15 pm

Gearhead , Couldn’t agree with you more regarding ” getting back to being the God fearing people that America was built on”…….Thank you for ALL you said for it is truth.

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:26 pm

I think the concept that is missed is that The Founding Fathers emphasized God in our founding because it provided us with a framework of moral guidance for personal behavior that would lessen the need for volumes of legal rules. The goal was Liberty, not legalism. You don’t have to believe in God to understand what a valuable concept a common moral compass is for a society’s stability. The Bible gives us a pretty good one though. The idea of a Higher Authority beyond the State lessens the need for the State. They didn’t want to impose a particular religious dogma on any one, they just wanted us to behave in a civil manner because it was the right thing to do. The Left has systematically destroyed this moral foundation much to our detriment. Jim

hawk5000Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:48 pm

HEY BOOKS I thought you were talking about Obama yes we are a democracy but Obama doesn’t believe it he doesn’t work at all with congress or the senate and yes he doesn’t listen to anyone he is pig headed and whenever he doesn’t get his way …….. which means congress or the senate bowing to his demands then out comes these words ……… THEIR NOT WORKING WITH ME without a doubt Obama has been so far the worst president of all time of the united states. PERIOD

GearheadFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:00 pm

It sounded so much like Obama I think everyone thought he was talking about Obama the great! But it was trump he referred to, now if trump just promised more hand outs and free abortion, free everything like Obama it would be hard to tell the difference! Dear liberals, we luv you but don’t want our lives ruined because of your short sidedness, we need leaders who understand economics and not politictions running the show . This is the problem with America now, things like gay rights have no place in national politics! Local gov can handle it. If you like something go to a state or country that you like, leave the one you don’t like, only in America, God help us!

JoyceFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:52 pm

The antichrist will be a popular figure with a dynamic personality…..He is a man Indwelled by the devil himself but people won’ recognize that…….’They will see him as A VERY great man who is “spewing” sweet, kind, sugary words to those around him for a # of years ( 3 1/2 yrs )?……..THEN he turns on them. (Just as Hitler did. ). See Revelation 12: 7-14 : Also, Rev. ( chapters ) 20-22. The antichrist is POSSIBLY alive somewhere already…….

Enough with the inacuracy already we are NOT a Democracy. Democracy is 2 wolves and a sheep voting on what is for dinner- strict majority rule. We are a representative republic built on a Constitution.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:16 pm

Easy to make Mexico pay for a wall. Just deduct it from what we owe in trade imbalance.

JoyceFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:57 pm

Obama is definitely laying “groundwork ” for the entrance of the Revelation period…….

chipFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:54 pm

Trump did not build an impire by being Stupid! He will listen and enlist those who are
smart about areas he needs more education in. In case you have not noticed! We
are not doing very well with this system of career politicans. sooner or later this
big government and big Money problem will crush the Freedom we have grown up
loving. Given time the influx of Muslims will also kill Freedom in America! we will look more like the failing Europe. Someone Like Trump with the guts to speak truth needs to take action now, not later! This PC crap is also killing America. If Trump win the Nomination you folks in doubt are going to see a turnout for Him that will shock the Liberals….. God Bless America.

JoyceSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:01 am

Chip, Right on……!!!!!!!

JoyceSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:01 am

Chip, Right on……!!!!!!!

RoseFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:43 pm

You are so right.

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:46 pm

Up until last night I wasn’t much of a Trump fan. You know, “New York Values”. The others certainly seem competent but scripted. When you ask Trump a question you get a straight honest answer. No focus group pablum. We will never have a candidate that agrees with us on all issues. Everybody I run into seems to hate the guy. But, this Hitler comparison stuff seems ludicrous. The paper hanger wouldn’t last five minutes in New York. If Trump is Afolph Hitler, I’m Joe Stalin. I also ask myself what his motives for running might be. Does he seek money, fame, or power? No, he already has all those things. Could it possibly be that the man is actually a Patriot that loves America? Im not going to let his quirky personality and outrageous media criticisms keep me from taking him very seriously from here on out. I love New York! Jim

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:19 pm

If the RNC is trying to destroy him you know he’s good. “You will know them by their works.” Not to mention the SNL skits we’ll all get to enjoy. :-)

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:09 am

If America quits spending money it does not have the whole house of cards collapses. In for a dime in for a dollar. The American economy is beyond the point of no return. The barn door is long open and the livestock has scattered to the four winds. I am really amazed that things have come this far before collapsing. Its amazing how The Fed and politicians have “engineered” things up to this point. You and I if we operated in this manner would have been in debtors prison a long time ago. Come Monday when China either lies about the true numbers things will stack up this way. They will tell a big one at 6.9% and investors will realize they are dealing with Pinocchio and the market will tank. They will reveal the true unmassaged numbers of 4 to 5% and the market will tank. Get your check books out Monday buy on the dip the dip the dip the dip are we up to Friday yet?

LangSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:25 am

Since 1913 that is just the way it’s been… thin air. Every single US dollar in circulation is created from nothing and loaned out at interest. It literally does not exist until the loans officer at your bank enters the amount you want to borrow into their computer terminal.

HowardFriday, January 15, 2016 at 4:53 pm

For some time now in these columns I have noticed more players have anticipated a downturn. The reasons are many, but include lack of trust in the markets, dodgy figures, government intervention, Fed mismanagement and the expected end of a bull market. What was the catalyst this time? There are many likely suspects, but my money is on market manipulation, where the little guy is squeezed out in favour of the smart money playing the fear card. Many have been prepared for some time.

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:12 pm

There does not have to be a ‘catalyst’ for such events. Social mood runs virtually all markets. And that mood has now turned doubtful and sanguine.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:23 pm

Haven’t you been paying attention to the Global Contraction and DE-flation trend? Like the article says the commodities blood bath is leading the way. Market manipulation is always there and how we got the last 6 yr. bubble btw. Sooner or later all bubbles POP and it looks like “later” is finally here.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:18 am

Smart money does squeeze out the little guy but like 3 card Monte the smart money needs the little guy as a mark. Yes the reasons you list are many and all true but it takes time for them play out. In any con game like the economy and the stock market it takes time to build the sucker up for the big score. All these so called economist screaming “buy on the dips” sure help out but they are nothing but shills. Watch the movie “Sucker” to get my meaning. Yes your money on market manipulation is spot on. Look at the manipulation in the precious metals market but Wall street and governments hate precious metals because they compete with the false fiat money blowing in the wind and Central Banks are secretly building up their gold reserves and they want to pay as little as possible till the vaults are full. Then the spotlight moves to precious metals and the little guy loads up and well you get the picture. Its robbery rotation.

Ross L.Friday, January 15, 2016 at 4:56 pm

I have heard about the multi-billion dollar settlements on Wall Street so soften and for so long I am unphased. As a matter of fact I can’t even keep up with the constant drone of their endless fines for breaking the rules. Now at this point I would wager that some hard jail time for some of the perps would get the attention of the miscreants and thus alter their behavior.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:25 am

You forget the 5.1 Billion dollar settlement with Goldman Sach comes more than likely without any admission of guilt. Yes they should spend jail time but governments think that by taking down such a giant they will upend the world economy. Its their get out of jail free card. Goldman Sachs is the piper that plays the tune for the government to dance to. To stop the natives you and I from getting restless they pay a small pittance from time to time to make the government look hawkish. Its all a shell game. You and I are the pea.

Will JFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:02 pm

Ya, why is VIX NOT imploding yet???

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:09 pm

the vix hasn’t even reach the the 2010 or 2011 correction levels, which show how benign this correction really is.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:24 pm

More likely it shows how young this correction is and it’s potential to go much, much lower which I believe it will. You will see the Dow at 6,000 and SPY at 600-800 this year, just watch.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:01 am

well, tactical, go look at the charts again. this correction has already exceed those levels, yet the vix has barely moved. that means investors doubly aren’t as worried.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:02 am

tremendous buying opportunity i’m sure all you geniuses will miss.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:32 am

I quit believing in government and second hand numbers long ago. Watch true numbers like the Baltic Dry Index and Walmart closing 269 stores and laying off 16,000 employees, Microsoft, Macy’s and Cat laying off. These are real people loosing their jobs not a bunch of government baloney. Next week you will see a whole list of massaged numbers as corporations report their profits by hook or by crook mostly crook trying to keep damage at a minimum. Keep the numbers low and keep the suckers coming.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:04 am

you’ll never make any money with your line of thinking, gordon.

SagelySunday, January 17, 2016 at 6:12 am

Gordon, Microsoft and Walmart laying off so many people is a good sign of a healthy economy to me – it means they’re facing increased competition from the little guy, and that’s a sign of a healthy economy. People are buying valuable things over the air they’ve been peddling for far too long.

MonteFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:03 pm

I am now completely out of the stock and mutual fund markets. I cashed out the last of my IRA funds the first Monday of the New Year.

deerflyguyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:11 pm

Good show! I beat you by one year, Monte!
I think that transfering to physical precious metals is the way to go. Purchase discretely and keep your mouth shut! Precious metals are at bargain prices right now, and the paper markets have only been supported by an influx of foreign capital, which will soon dry up.
The Fed and it’s minion, the US government, have lied to us for so long that they are beginning to believe their own lies! I tell you true, the emperor’s wonderful new suit of clothes does not exist! Believe your own eyes! He is quite naked! It’s only a matter of time before the paper markets will collapse (perhaps yet this winter?), and the wise man is already out of those investments.

you’ll wind up like the idiots on this website that bought FCX. they’re down about 50% just this month.

You all are nutsSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 9:29 am

God will not save you, that’s why he made man….save your self. God does not care if you make money that is not a reason to believe.

ianSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 5:32 pm

HI, WE are all nuts.God and money,loving both

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:35 am

You and deerflyguy are ahead of the game. Way to go. Sit back and relax its going to be a rough ride. I can remember in 1987 trying to panic sell my stocks. I called the broker to put in a sell order and she told me “I will take your order but there is no one on the other side buying” Are we there yet? If not its coming.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:06 am

warren buffett is buying like crazy. i guess you’re no warren buffett, monte.

Gary B.Friday, January 15, 2016 at 5:07 pm

Just a quick thought for the day: Has anyone ever thought of a “consumer cartel”? Let’s shift the playing field in our favor.

Michele GFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:37 pm

What do you suggest?

Jethro BodineFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:12 pm

No worries – Larry Edelson promised that the Dow would hit 31,000 by late 2017. Of course he also said there would be a major drop in October 2015 with the bottom coming on or about October 21, 2015. Oops.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:38 am

Seems Larry also said gold would start to shine. Unfortunately Wall Street, the big banks and governments have got it neatly corralled. They lasso and pull it back every time it tries to break out. The lasso being all that fiat paper gold.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:12 am

you could flip a coin and do better than larry.

SammyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:17 pm

China as a market is so “cosmic” that nobody understands how it has grown so fast in such a short time. Going forward, nobody knows how China is not growing as fast as before. It’s government is meddling with policies to try to understand and to manage China’s growth. China’s government can only “trial and error” policies to manage it’s future for example, the use of stock market circuit breakers. Disastrously, corporations around the world has been betting on China for immediate profit and future growth. Fumbling on, when China hits negative growth figures…..beware!

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:43 am

Always remember the birds of corporate greed always need a nest to lay their eggs in. Corporate greed today is much like the Cuckoo bird. They destroy the other birds eggs and lay their own. They are a parasite bird and well we all know what the big corporations and their greed are.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:14 am

you must have been confucius in another life, gordy. absolutely brilliant words of wit.

H. Craig BradleyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:23 pm

THE POSITIVE SIDE

The good thing here is since its not true “panic” you are unlikely to lose – 80%, as occurred commonly in the panic and crash of 1929. Thankfully, its not 1929 all over again. Someday, perhaps, but not for now (yet). Gold bugs are not going to get their satisfaction this time around, at least. Too bad. Gold bugs have been on the wrong side of the trade since 2011.

GearheadFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:10 pm

After much study, I believe precious metals will be the only way to survive the near future. Liberals think low oil prices are great for the economy but are causing bankruptcy of our oil drillers and then bank failures will follow, add this to all the world news and it adds up badly. Everyone is cautious of metals bcc of manipulation, but their real value is what people are not seeing bcc of our manipulate d fiat currencies

Your comment on gold bugs is interesting. Lets revisit that in a couple months when panic and fear has set in. I like your prejudgment of this “downturn” and your assessment “Thankfully its not 1929 all over again.” Would you be available to read my palm and life line.?

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:18 am

h. craig bradley is the only guy with any sense at all. absolutely right about gold since 2011. gordon, you already missed the palm reading. gold has been in the toilet since 2011 and still is. wake up and get you head out of the toilet.

NeophyteAFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:29 pm

This may be too late but maybe still be worth a try: The only option left for Europe in order to survive is to form what I would call the “United States of Europe”, on a framework similar to that of the U.S. of A. The skeleton of an infrastructure is already in place, just build on it–ASAP!

WillFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:55 pm

NeophyteA, a United States of Europe would require each member country to give up their individual seats in all of the world organizations which would substantially reduce their influence in the world by reducing each country to the level of a state. It is this very concept that has made me say from day one that the EU can not last since the whole concept is based on wanting to have your cake and eat it too.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:26 pm

The only option for Europe is to abandon the “Union” and go back to real borders, State currencies, and trade and immigration regulation again. If not they are doomed.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:52 am

Has their debt level reached 19 Trillion and counting yet. When it does you can call it the United States of Run Away Debt(Europe Inc.). The days of Wimpy are almost over. Its getting close to the time when the burger must be paid for. Do you really think the USA is a knight in shining armor that is debt proof? Swampland in Florida on sale now!!

Ted FFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:30 pm

Prices have been way over bloated for too long, too much Fed Funny Money running around. Time for the market to return to reality. Too many government make work projects all over the globe. Then the economic engine that makes our economy hum has been squeezed too much, the middle class is taking it in the shorts, too many new toys with too much debt. Something has to give.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:54 am

The middle class is taking it in the shorts, too many new toys with too much debt. Something has to give. Enough said.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:20 am

makes a lot of sense. thanks for sharing this worthwhile information. don’t know how we’d get along without you gordy.

Chuck BurtonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:33 pm

The VIX has been steadily climbing, but Mike is correct that there hasn’t been a real sign of panic. It is as rather like boiling missionaries in a pot. They are getting a little worried, but the water hasn’t gotten too hot yet. It will!

jamesFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:21 pm

IMO the VIX hasn’t yet hit panic levels b/c retail investor’s have not largely even participated in the stock markets raise over the last 3 years. The main thrust has been more fund managers, and mainly oversea’s money coming to the reliable US markets.
Soon enough there will be a relief rally for those wanting to get out to sell into, but the last year has been in a topping formation before the larger decline. No one ever knows for sure when or how large these events will take the market, but if I were to guess the S&P 500 will close below the 1870 area of support, and ultimately move to 1525-1575 area sometime this late spring or summer. Now if that area fails and things really escalate I would not be surprised to see LT support @1050-1075 for the S&P 500 get tested before moving higher in 1-2 years.

GaetonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:03 pm

James, I think you are spot on. That is why everyone should be raising as much cash as possible. When the market bottoms there will be some incredible bargains to buy. PE’s should be below 10 and dividends should be above 5%. It will be the start of a secular bull market provided all this debt/derivative stuff gets unwound.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:58 am

Always remember for something to move higher factories must be built workers employed. This mentality has gone the way of the dinosaur. Move higher in 1-2 years oh yes robots will be online by then and workers will be basking in the sun by the river fishing collecting free money from the government dreaming of driverless cars which they cannot afford. Its time to wake up now. We are all living in a dream world.

GaetonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:57 pm

The water will be hot enough when the S&P crashes through support at 1800. Then the bear market will be in full swing. Before that happens, though, I expect a brief rally over the next few weeks. This should be helped by oil finally catching a bid . At least, I hope that is the way it plays out. That said the hangover should carry over into Tuesday for awhile.

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:18 pm

Agreed, Gaeton. 1800 is what i called for yesterday on this board, near term. That is the next major support. But…..we could blast thru that if panic does set in. On the other hand, a countertrend rally is due soon as we are oversold. Long term, however, the trend is down, down, down.

Chuck BurtonMonday, January 18, 2016 at 11:25 am

I think you are right about the likelihood of a bit of a rally, but if the S&P breaks below 1800, my SPXS could begin to look like the recent POWEBALL.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:22 am

any and every time the vix rises it has been a fantastic opportunity to buy the s&p that everyone of these idiots on this blog have miss out on. i guess they’ll miss out on this one too.

Bill MaynardFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Hi Mike!
Let me reiterate loudly, 2016 is a number 9 (2+0+1+6) world year of ENDINGS of any kind!!! Ever since I began to study the metaphysical/spiritual science of numerology in 1976, I’ve woefully learned to engender profound respect and admiration for this valid form of knowledge and guidance, and in 2008 my experiences with numerals permitted me to create the book entitled Universal Numbers and the Number 9 Destiny of Humankind (Amazon). Indeed, it offers an elucidation of many of the world’s baffling mysteries!

DougFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:52 pm

Do continue…..

HowardFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:24 pm

Yes, however I find other numbers, charts and graphs can be a good reference point.

David LFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:38 pm

Is the VIX a real volatility Index or just the ratio of Puts/Calls? If the “big players” have
sold they don’t need Puts or Calls? They could sell some Calls and maybe buy a few
Puts.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:39 pm

The VIX measures investor “sentiment” by measuring put to call ratios. When stock owners sense a declining market they buy “puts” on their stocks to protect/insure the value/purchase price. At the same time they stop buying stocks due to uncertainty hence the “volatility index” becomes a self fulfilling prophesy in a sense.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:24 am

anytime the market goes down the vix goes up. wow! rocket science at its best.

Donald LinkFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:42 pm

I know there are bargains in the market now but with so many conflicting “expert” opinions, I have no idea what they are. Maybe the alcoholic beverages. There seems a demand right now.

ScottFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:42 pm

The settlement with Goldman Sachs is chump chang. Part of their cost of “doing business”.
When is someone going to go to jail for these bankster crimes?

Donald LinkFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:52 pm

When those in congress who created the playing field for these crimes go to jail.

RubitFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:46 pm

What is next?

Lazurur ScrotumeFriday, January 15, 2016 at 5:48 pm

World corruption and US greed hopefully soon, will spank us hard. How long will this insanity go on? If not, the upcoming youth will suffer dearly for the sins of their fathers

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:14 pm

thanks for sharing that with us, scrotum. don’t know what we’d do without you. that reminds me. i need to go pick my warts and scratch my rashes.

TravisFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:00 pm

Hey Mike,
You seem to be ignoring gold like most brokers. This could be a bottom, with all this money coming out of the market and no place to go. Why go utilities when you could make 10% in the gold GLD in a month. The yellow metal isn’t dead yet. It’s had a “big” correction already. Our 18 trillion debt is coming to a head. Luck…

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:26 am

why not buy the dow? larry says it’s going to 31,000.

DayneFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:02 pm

The world is in the final chapter of playing out the game .Look at the last 200 years of knowledge flooding the earth. The development of incredible technology, the amazing communications and travel , all the things that makes life easy and comfortable on the one hand , and the incredible destruction of natural resources through greed and wars and natural disasters and currently , the disruption of nations with the huge refugee crises on the other.
Man has violated the laws of God for worldly gain and is self destructing at an incredible rate and all the economies of the nations of “iron and miry clay “are in process of ccollapsing .
When we pursue the “dollar” relentlessly and worship the “holy dollar” as God when he has said quite plainly “thou shalt have no other Gods before me” , the consequences are fixed. “The Lord giveth and The Lord taketh away.”

Jack CFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:00 pm

Dayne, your on point. The hand of protection removed, and the hand of judgment falling upon America. This generation blinded to what made America the greatest economy, military power, nation on earth of all earth’s recorded history. As swiftly as Americans turned from God, our greatness retreated.

GearheadFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:23 pm

Rite on! The miry clay was actually steel reinforced concrete that was in the vision, everything today is made from steel reinforced concrete, bridges, buildings, houses are constructed on steel reinforced concrete, it looked like clay! Get ready, this next election will decide which way the people will go

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:16 pm

yep, a true financial genius, gearhead. you must be a millionaire. that reminds me. i’m out of hemorrhoid cream.

HowardFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:35 pm

Gentlemen

What has happened is that the average man in the middle classes who found companionship and raised a family has been ignored. Middle class values are being eroded by extremist left and right wing goals, from marriage equality to energy replacement alternatives. The loud crowd has the ear of government now and it is our children who will be left with the debt and moral decay.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:40 pm

Amen, brother. Is that why even the “Lord” is always looking for donations?

RichardFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:05 pm

I have been completely sold out now. just waiting for things to get real. I sleep good now.

deerflyguyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:25 pm

I hope your money is not completely in greenbacks, and, if it is, I hope it’s not trusted to banks? You could still stand to lose everything due to inflation, bank holidays, bail ins, or whatever else the world bankers, assisted by corrupt governments, decide to do to us to benefit their wicked and sinfull existance!

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:21 pm

And it had better not be in money market funds with a broker…..those will decline too.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:29 am

you’re missing out on dividends of about 3% in an s&p fund. if stocks go up even 2% your missing out on 5% gains. stocks are the place to be.

libraFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:11 pm

the endless goodies given to all of Obama’s buddies and offspring and chain migration that he imports in from Africa and the middle east and are put immediately on a lifetime of full maintenance forever and the huge numbers of American citizens who cannot find work and are also not contributing. It just means the printing presses will continue to print dollars that are non-existent. We need a Trump to clean out government and downsize it. We need Trump to stop the fraud and theft in every aspect of government freebies. We need Trump to clean up the politicized unions and the politicized teachers unions. We need a Trump to rebuild our military and our infrastructure and secure our borders. If we do not get trump–we are doomed.

CarlaFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:52 pm

I feel the opposite as you.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:59 am

Pst I know where Trump can get a cheap loan.

Donald MinorFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:12 pm

Buy low and on a down market.The market always sets new highs after a downturn. Keep positive and open minded to changes. Ignore short term gratifaction. Invest long term! Stop always thinking about yourself plan for the well being of your heirs. Learn from history and use it as a play book.

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:33 pm

And beware the falling knife.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:31 am

grab the knife by the handle, not the blade. you’ll make money while the cowards watch it go by out of fear.

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:39 pm

I’m with you Don. The Dow was at 6,000 in 2009, then it went to 18,000. If it goes to 6,000 now where do you think it will be in 2020? The long term direction of the market has always been higher. Those who try to time it almost always miss out on the best gains. When I turn on FBN and the DOW is down 339 points, I turn the channel to Turner Classics. Same goes for oil. Jim

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:41 pm

But then, the newsletter guys wouldn’t have anything to do, would they? Jim

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:35 am

jim is truly the smartest guy on this blog. what are you doing hanging out with these nitwits, jim? i’m surprised they let you stay. you’re a beacon of hope in cesspool morons.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:36 am

mike larson also brings hope to this website. could be the turning point this place needs.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:01 am

Great plan where is the closest Goodwill store. History may be in the making and not the rear view mirror

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:37 am

i doubt you could even afford goodwill, gordy. you’re in desperate need of a new financial plan.

AlFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:12 pm

There certainly are bargains in the market right now, however, unless you have “new money” or money on the sidelines (cash), buying means selling a looser to purchase the bargain. Bargains may become dogs as no oneI know (or follow) has a functional “crystal ball”. What ever happened to the January effect?

Tactical111Friday, January 15, 2016 at 10:34 pm

“January Effect” came with lube this year. ;-)

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:03 am

The January effect is usually a heavy snowfall. If you notice it is now raining heavily. Wonder if there is such a thing as Financial Change? We now have climate change.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:39 am

now we’ve got the weather man forecasting the stock market.

Roger TetraultFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:13 pm

The way that the Insiders in Washinton have had a picnic with our money for decades and pilfering the coffers [lining up their pockets] is very well known.I think that having a man like Trump go in there would be a godsend in disguise. He does have no IOU’s with anybody and has the knowhow in business , it can’t be any worse than that bunch of politicians we have in there. Thank you Roger Tetrault

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:18 pm

you’ve got to be working for larry, no? now we know where larry gets all his good information.

MichaelFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:24 pm

Hi, don´t think that the world is going under, wether in USA nor in Europe, nor in China, although there in China the oeconomics have to renewed, especially in the immobile sector. Very very bad mistakes of the gov were made, nobody tells about them, but it is. No matter, but dramatic talks about World War III is what nobody wants to hear and nobody wants to and should believe Thats a Phrase frome the hell Gurus to whom I must say: You are wrong.
Everybody who thinks that the oil price is at the bottom and that this time now will be the biggest chance than ever, is also wrong. Iran did not yet come to the market. The Price will fall further, think about 20 USD or quite a little less.
My opinion: We have not the 1930er years, we have not an asset back securities conc. Lehman and other bank crisis of 2008, so what.
We can now buy some stocks under there real value, thats the truth. So we can improve our Pension plan. Thats my opinion. Stock picking similar to 2015 is also for 2016 the right way, not desillusioning. Thats what I stand for.
Which stocks ? Can help.
Thanks.
Mike

PhilFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:08 pm

The only person talking about WWIII is Larry Edelson and the North Koreans.

GearheadFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:17 pm

There is a war going on, a currency war, it will effect everyone, and low oil prices will cause bank defaults in the states. This is not the same landscape we had 7 or more years ago, we have no more ammunition to keep things going, except printing money as long as we can

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:19 pm

whew! thank god for tell us. i was so worried about that. now i can sleep tonight.

dickFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:22 pm

i’m really impressed, gearhead. stunning work, man. did you figure this out by yourself? surely got this from you board meeting. are you the ceo?

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:30 pm

This will be a Depression of one degree greater intensity than that of the 1930s. Most assets in the 1930s lost almost 90% of value.

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:35 pm

That’s the problem I have. I’m afraid that in a major deflationary event there is no safe place to hide, except maybe cold hard cash in hand. The problem there is that in the last depression a dollar was actually worth something, not so much this time. Jim

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:37 pm

Just look what’s happening in Canada right now. Cold hard cash is no consolation for them. A lot of them may face starvation this winter. Jim

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:07 am

Michael after reading your epiphany my advise is stay out of the stock market while you still have money left.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:42 am

good advice, gordon. then we can all shop at goodwill like you do.

Will JFriday, January 15, 2016 at 6:37 pm

I think i got the answer. Go take a look at VIX monthly chart, if you’re a chartist.

If you follow VIX, don’t get fooled by its absolute level at 27 as of today’s close while S&P500 actually went below August’s low on intra-day basis. Back then in August, VIX hit an intra-month high of 50-ish while equities were at its trough.

So, now bag the question of why the market is not as panic now as in August as indicated by the VIX’s absolute level? Are the masses are too overly complacent?

I think the answer lies in the MONTHLY chart of VIX and not the daily chart. Monthly VIX actually just breakout like it did in August. However, upon the breakout in August, VIX gained 154% on intra-month’s high. As of today, VIX only rallied 54%.

So, what does this mean? S&P500 went passed August low but the volatility (or panic) index only hit 1/3 of August high. Are people not panic enough? I think the masses are just too complacent!

Imagine where equities would be if VIX hit another 100% soon? Bloody!

151Friday, January 15, 2016 at 7:29 pm

Will………
You might just have a point. It definitely looks like the VIX needs more upside prior to a counter rally. 1800 SP500 or slightly lower is looking even better.

GaetonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:34 pm

Tuesday may see s very big drop to get into that 1850-1800 range. I plan to add to my long position if that happens. Looking for an 8%-10% rally from those levels. Hope to see oil in low to mid 40’s over next few months

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 11:06 pm

Where is the guy that told us low oil prices would lead to an economic boom? Jim

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:08 am

Jim. I think I passed him on Wall street with a tin cup. The cup looked empty times are tough.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:44 am

he’s shopping at goodwill. i’m sure you’ll see him there, jim.

snarkySunday, January 17, 2016 at 7:30 pm

that guy was right. low oil price will unleash a healthy economy soon. you’re an oil guy, jim. i surprised you don’t know that the revenues the saudis are lacking and causing the tremendous financial pain are staying right here in america. this is going to go on for a long, long, long time. the saudis pain is our gain. you’ve got to stop thinking so small minded, jim, and look at the big picture.

Chuck BurtonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 7:45 pm

I just realized something. Larry says we will get 5,000 dollar gold, and 31,000 on the Dow. I wonder if he realizes that this could imply high inflation. It would fit in with the central bankers talking about what is in effect “helicopter money” – the monetization of debt. If that is how things are going to play out, I hope Larry is dead wrong.

WillFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:20 pm

My concept remains that the world is heading for stagflation; economies grinding to a halt while governments try to spend themselves and the private sectors out of debt through creating money that can be spent by them (helicopter money) in order to at last achieve the inflation needed to pay off debt. Pain!!! Gold Up, Dow Down.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:21 am

Larry is like myself sitting in Thailand with a young wife in my case g/f. At times there are stars in my eyes because I am 77 and I am sure he is suffering/enjoying the same. I like Larrys forecast on gold although the government will have to clean up the Comex fiat paper gold market first its a straight jacket for gold and they have no desire to do so. 31,000 on the Dow reminds me of the skit that a certain redhead made working in a chocolate factory. For the Dow to reach that level and I repeat this again factories must be built people must be hired and prosperity must be restored to the land and it ain’t going to happen because the 0.7% will not make it so. If you think it will be accomplished by all that foreign money flowing into America well in the cycle of things it may work for a while but the falling domino effect after Europe and Japan will come to the shores of America. Anybody with half a brain knows that bills must be paid you cannot live on credit indefinitely governments included.

Chuck BurtonMonday, January 18, 2016 at 11:13 am

Except that governments have the power to REPUDIATE debts, and try to start over. Maybe a good reason not to trust either governments or their debts… in the long run, at least.

Michael PonzaniFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:34 pm

i have had had Chins crap that was total junk and others which worked quite well. (presto pop corn popper). Capri coffee grinder, POO! I grind my beans using an Arcade grinder which is about 100yrs old. Arcade does the same thing if adjlusted right.

Sherry FarwellFriday, January 15, 2016 at 8:59 pm

I followed your advice and moved completely out of the market in early October. I missed the short upward spike that subsequently occurred, but my move is now looking quite shrewd. Thanks for sounding the accurate alarm that preserved my extra retirement funds.

DoeFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:13 pm

What ever happened to business ethics? You can’t trust CFO’s, CEO’s, Banks, Countries,

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:30 am

Doe. One word sums it up my dear boy/girl GREED position pressure produce produce produce or your out the door. If you want the big bucks deliver or get out. If you go back to where it all started a 100 years ago you will understand. Watch Jekyll Island and how the Fed and the IRS were created. In the dead of night votes etc. Watch how the USA almost became a Nazi style government but for the fear of a certain president of exposing the filthy rich and a certain soldier that blew the whistle on the whole scheme. They were already to big to fail way back then. Watch some of the Anonymous video’s and try and break your thinking to outside the box. All this was carefully crafted orchestrated and played out well. Unfortunately like all Ponzi schemes the music will soon stop. Find a chair to sit on fast.

TreyFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:22 pm

We need to impeach Obama! It was Obama who used executive action after being told not to bail out GM, bail out the banks which have screwed Americans with high note rest for years! Obama led the United Stated into a huge mess. No One n Washintoon will ever stand up to Obama because he is Black! If he were white he would have been stopped! Obama has out spent any President n his four year terms. Now he and Carry giving Iran this money, when the economy is crumb liming! Guess what Iran will be the richest country. They also have more friends hat lead countries! Obama has put every nation against us. The African Americans yelled four more years! Well I hope that they who voted for Obama thing they were going to live off the Government, now see, what we disable vets who gave all for this country, those of us old enough to remember 9/11. Now know our disability checks like SSI is all but about to go away! And the African Americans that abuse the system because they learned it from there parents, are about to see there free money stop! I just hope the Four More Years were worth it!! We are a nation of idiots! We believe the lies and yet we do nothing to hold Those responsible. When will Americans wake up??

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:39 am

Trey.
Hold on there pardner. Back track a little. Most of this mess was inherited from George Bush. He should have been sent to La Hague and put on trial and shot as a war criminal. How soon we forget. Unemployment was 8% then and now 5%(if your inclined to believe that) He created a financial back breaking war in Iraq because of flawed information but that did not matter he wanted a war anyways to satisfy the arms industry anyways. He fell on his arse during Katrina the largest disaster in American history. He came into the presidency with a checkered past in the military. Think of the 1000s of innocent lives lost in his phony war and all the soldiers returning home with mental and physical problems. Also you seriously need to take spelling and English lessons so we can make sense of what you are saying.

muleFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:27 pm

“You’ll wonder where your teeth went when you brush your teeth with govern mint”.

For those who say we live in a democracy; that is a broad brush, catch all term. We live in a Constitutional Republic. There is a huge difference. This Constitutional Republic is our only hope and the last hope of the world.

Mule

Chuck BurtonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:44 pm

I largely agree, mule. but the politicians are turning our government into a democracy, instead, and democracies, historically have tended to fail, and become monarchies or dictatorships in reaction.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:43 am

Chuck demagoguery comes to mind as well. We are well on our way to a Republican dicktatorship.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:46 am

i thought you were the weather man, gordon? did you get a demotion?

JimFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:58 pm

Rousseau correctly described Democracy as Mob Rule, the tyranny of the fifty one percent. He predicted Democracy would fail once the fifty one per cent realized it held the keys to the treasury. I am a member of the forty nine per cent and I don’t like it a little bit. We are supposed to be a Republic, which is defined as a Nation of Laws that apply to each and every individual. We seem to have lost that distinction somewhere along the way. Jim

snarkySunday, January 17, 2016 at 7:20 pm

you’re wrong, mule. a republic is where you elect representatives to vote for you. a democracy is where you do the actual voting without a representative. the usa is a republic, not a democracy. a senate and congress vote for you in america, unlike some european countries that have a democracy.

snarkySunday, January 17, 2016 at 7:25 pm

none of this matters. history has shown that what matters is whoever has the most wealth and can afford to defend their political system is who will succeed, but whatever political system that is will get credit for being the best.

CarlaFriday, January 15, 2016 at 9:48 pm

Looks like global flu to me. Been waiting for a stronger correction, as last fall’s was very minor considering the high valuations. Looking forward to some good shopping just down the road a piece.

frankFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:28 pm

and what about all the gold the germans want back and can not get.
that should also not help the USA.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:47 am

Frank Perchance it may not be real gold. As there is never an audit of Fort Knox who knows the cupboard could be bare. Talk about a Black Swan event. I guess the Rand Paul idea of auditing the Fed will be shot down in flames.

Chuck BurtonFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:35 pm

Larry Edelson’s monthly letter, out today has a number of interesting takes on events. One of the scariest, in some ways is his answer to a question.
Q. How much deflation will we see? I would imagine quite a bit with equity markets now nosediving.
A. Deflation still has the upper hand, yes. But not in the traditional sense of constantly falling consumer prices. While it is true we do have that as well, the deflation the world is experiencing is more of a monetary phenomenon: A contraction in credit and money velocity, or turnover.
In a nutshell, it means lenders are more reluctant to lend, and borrowers, more reluctant to borrow.
That in turn leads to economic contraction, in declining government revenues, declining real incomes for families, and a whole panoply of negative wealth effects.
The thing about this deflationary cycle is that it is shaping up to be the worst on record. Even sharply negative interest rates in Europe are failing to stimulate economic growth.
When will the world come out of it? Not until the entire current monetary system crashes and burns.By that, I mean when governments default on their debts, revolutionary movements occur in politics, and more.
Then and only then will the world be able to reboot itself, if you will, to use a computer analogy.
End of quote.
Larry leaves out one thing: the central bankers are determined to create inflation to counteract the current deflation. They will do this by monetizing debt, hoping to create the desire inflationary level of about 2%. Once people begin to feel the inflation though, they may react in ways beyond the control of the bureaucrats. The could start spending like it is going out of style, in order to stock up on things before the prices get away from them. Inflation could possibly run away, as it did in Germany or Zimbabwe, beyond the control of the Fed and other central bankers

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:55 am

Chuck if you do any shopping you know there is inflation there lots of it but the government has been put in a bind of their own making. They have fudged the inflation numbers over the last decade to show zero inflation which well you and I know is a big lie. It sure does save a lot in COLA increases for pensioners and bankrupt governments borrowing funny money. Now they want to create some inflation but are caught up in a lie. Anyone swallowing this deflation crap needs a reality check. Governments are really to the point where we no longer swallow their rubber numbers. Their rubber numbers have really gotten to the point where the lowest of lowest I.Q. people have seen the light. They are so caught up in BS that the truth really does not matter anymore to them.

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:48 am

i do all my shopping at goodwill.

muleSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 9:00 am

Hey dick, quit being a dick and shut up. You buy and sell however you see fit, there is no need for all your idiot snarky comments.

Mule

snarkySunday, January 17, 2016 at 8:57 am

didn’t know you were the site moderator, mule. dick’s comment aren’t nearly a snarky as the other dicks on this site. go moderate them.

muleSunday, January 17, 2016 at 10:22 am

Yo snarky,,, apparently that’s your job. ROFLMAO

Mule

dickSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:48 am

i do all my shopping at goodwill.

WillFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:50 pm

I expect that this “correction” will last well into February and eventually end in capitulation. I expect that most of any money coming into the US will go to real estate and treasuries more likely than stocks. Those who invest in stocks no matter where will have the attitude of “Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on you” with regards to all stock markets in my opinion.

People also must realize that just like the stock market can build wealth, it can also destroy wealth, making the pot smaller day by day. Soveriegn Funds have no need to do year end tax adjustments and I expect that cash from stocks they sell are used mostly to fund expenses no longer covered by oil income. The involvement of these large funds in stock sales for financing purposes negates their ability to churn as doing so would worsen selling in a falling market as already required to raise cash

The rest of the world, including Europe, looks more favorable on gold than most brain washed Americans do. This is where they will put most of their money in my opinion.

When Switerzland decoupled their Franc from the Euro it gave me pause to think how many of the remaining currencies coupled to the USD may soon decouple as well. This is why I do not expect the Fed to be able to raise rates further; and if they lower rates back again, what little faith will remain.

WillFriday, January 15, 2016 at 10:51 pm

That should read “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.”

RonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 1:28 am

Hi Will,

Your prediction about early February makes a lot of sense…
Traders and big investors are too nervous to even stay in the Market over a weekend..
Well then, just think how nervous they are about the results that will be seen after
Super Tuesday…
Getting out now is like betting on a big fall in Stocks and a buying opportunity.
Getting the speculators out of the Gas market has shown where the price would be
IF betting on the index did not LEAD the Price.

Automated trading is still going on, but is a smaller way.. Early sellers
wait for a drop and then buy back in automatically at a chosen level. This accounts for the way the market closed higher than it’s low for the day on Jan 15th

JERRYSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:41 am

CHIP YOU ARE 100% RIGHT

LDSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:35 am

Mike Larson is a grad of Boston U. He appears to be an Obama Democract as he refuses to print my comments. He probably does not like the truth of how Obam.a’s people have arranged the destruction of our country by the bueacracy. I’m sure he is culling out many others. How’s that “Hope and change” working out for you Mike? It’s typical for Democracts to cut out freedom of speech. That’s why my comments are never printed.

GordonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 3:05 am

Hey LD
Funny I just read your comments. Give the presidency to the Republicans and see what happens especially to your much touted freedom of speech comment. You could reduce the number from 4 to 3 when referring to the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse but then lets say the fourth horseman would be just the utter collapse of the country. I am not a religious person but as my old granny used to say “We live in perilous times” She said that over 50 years ago. Darn smart lady and she was religious.

Chuck BurtonSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:21 pm

Politicians of either party do their best to ignore the Constitution as much as possible, except when it suits their purpose. As long as we have the political system we do, they will try to get away with everything they can. I don’t know what is better, but our system at least needs a renewal. Can it happen without force of arms? I hope so.

Joseph John Lang, Ph.D.Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 3:21 am

Interestingly, I DID NOT write the comment that was attributed to me above. It shows as just “Lang.” I have found that I have suffered extensive identity theft, and it is all over the place.

Someone is trying to make me sound like some radical war-protester and left-wing extremist, I see here. I have been having to make corrections wherever I find them, and I am finding them all over the internet. I am not anti-military or anti-war. I’d join forces against privacy intruders and hackers!

Please advise me what I can do so that others are writing comments and attributing them to me when they are not mine!

As for the topic, I have ideas but since I was “hacked” right on your Reply list, I don’t want to mix them up with the more serious issue of identity theft.

Joseph John Lang, Ph.D.Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 3:25 am

In the comment I just wrote above, in the third paragraph, I somehow forgot to type the word NOT between the words “are” and “writing.”

Hopefully Ted Bauman can help stop this sort of invasion of my identity and privacy?

Joseph John Lang, Ph.D.Saturday, January 16, 2016 at 3:33 am

How many “Langs” do you have as readers. Since I wrote the two comments above, I scrolled up the entire list of comments and found not just one but TWO comments just labeled “Lang” at the top. Those two earlier ones WERE NOT MINE.

Please advise. If you have more than one “Lang,” then I’d need a way to reply that distinguishes me from the “false Lang” in the first two “Lang” messages here.

DavidSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 11:01 am

I’m still not sure what some of the Larry Edelson detractors are reading in his Newsletter. I don’t act on his portfolio recommendations without doing my own research, I have one very small Naked $4.00 PUT position in FCX, the rest of my funds are in cash. To me in the Real Wealth Report he has forecast a stock correction which is happening, he also said stay away from Gold and Silver and especially the Miners until he gives a signal. He does seem to have changed his levels to buy in Friday’s monthly issue. My point, so far his Trend/Cycle analysis has been very good, not perfect, that isn’t possible, you have to take the information and decide for yourself whether it makes sense and if so act on it; if not stay in cash.

ivan coleSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 11:34 am

subs comments are a waste of time and computer space i’m paying for YOUR input not for anyone who just wants to see their opinion in print. idon’t read any of them and may unsubscribe. THANKS FOR READING MY OPINION.

CraigSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:15 pm

How important is China? Ask Rio and BHP, plus China is reducing their currency. You add the problems in Europe and oil to the equation and you have downside in the markets. Notice I said, “markets” stock, currency, commodity, etc.

CharlesSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:20 pm

I would be very interested to hear what some of you
Think about a global reset of all currencies and debt….I think this is the only way out but the process would be very bloody .

Chuck BurtonSunday, January 17, 2016 at 10:26 am

It seems to be essentially what Larry E. is saying will have to happen. He may be correct, but it will not happen until the people stop allowing politicians to rule them. People, as individuals, and in groups as well, like the idea of a savior who will protect them from their own weaknesses. Nevah hoppen.

George WaynarSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 12:56 pm

AMERICA. . . . . . . . be still and listen: THE STENCH OF MORAL DECAY HAS REACHED THE NOSTRILS OF OUR CREATER AND HIS “SLOW TO ANGER” HAS FADED! THE WORST IS YET TO COME UNLESS WE FIND OUR KNEES TO BEND IN PRAYER WITH BEHAVIORAL CHANGE

Donald HeacockSaturday, January 16, 2016 at 2:40 pm

The Federal Government is running an extortion racket. There were firms that did wrong like WAMU. Like them most are gone. Often the survivors corporated with the Feds and got reward ed with a fine.

EaerlySaturday, January 16, 2016 at 7:27 pm

1.All, that is all markets are manipulated. 2. The World Bankers in the City of London, dictate what happens globally. They own the world’s Central Banks, which are private, not National They have coined money in all currencies since the earlier 1800’s, in the Tax Free square mile plebiscite of the City of London, within the city of London, England. The multi trillionaire Rothschild Family is the head of this dynasty. They also control the United Nations. They’ve been lenders of last resort for the past 250 years. Funded both the Allies and the Axis of WWII. The first global mandate for the UN is the phony “mankind caused Global Warming proposed and spearheaded by Al Gore, and given the preamble by Pope Francis in the New York City UN Headquarters this past September, and ratified in a two week meetings in Paris, France, in December 2015. Next on the the UN Agenda is providing a One World currency, in the form of digital accounts controlled from one master site. The current National currencies will cease to exist. Without a numbered account, you will be unable to buy and sell. The global elite, including the wealthy environmentalists, state the Earth has more people than it can adequately provide for, so the target number is two (2) billion people???????????????? It will be made up of the Elite, and the peasants, no middle class. Hmmmmm. Think about it for a few days.

\

Chuck BurtonMonday, January 18, 2016 at 11:06 am

Just what we need, another conspiracy theory.

RonSunday, January 24, 2016 at 1:51 am

Hi Early,
As much as I hate to admit it… your idea about Elite and Peasants makes a lot of sense…
Who needs a Middle Class if the Peasants can be taught to run the Mercedes production lines?

muleSunday, January 17, 2016 at 10:28 am

Eaerly, how would you go about proving the things you point out? I don’t doubt it so much as I don’t know how it could be proved?

Mule

RonSunday, January 17, 2016 at 3:29 pm

Hi Mule,

Not only is there a war on the Middle Class… there is a war on Energy Consumption…..
It is as if the Co2 reduction will not be enough to satisfy the Warmists…
Look at the latest idea…. using Solar panels to recharge a Tesla (Off Grid)
Power Supply, which will hang in your garage like a UPS Power Supply and give you some ability to Use the energy of the Sun when the Sun is not shining..

The Cost of a 7KW unit will be about $13 K
(google “Tesla Off Grid” if you have not seen this next “Big Thing”)
How will a Unit like this be enough to run a House if Air Conditioning is in the MIX?
It will NOT run the AC for much more than an Hour …
If you are in a Condo apartment, you will not even have the ability to recharge such a unit
with solar panels… due to lack of space or facing AWAY from the Sun.

How Many will die in a Hot NY Summer without Air Conditioning in their Highrise ?

Why are energy prices rising like they are?
Simple…. to Subsidize this folly of using Lithium Ion Batteries to power Houses..
Does the World even have enough Lithium to satisfy the needs of the Many
What happens when Lithium is 10 times more expensive than it is now?

Was 9/11 a warning to get out of Big Cities and find a few acres of Farmland where you can Live “Off the Grid” with a better chance of surviving the next “CRISIS”
A Tesla Power Cell may be a great idea in areas where there is NO Electrical Grid…
such as in rural Kenya or the mountains of 3rd World Countries….
Of course the need to develop such devices means that the Developed World
must perfect the Technology..

There are some tall foreheads telling us that Sustainable Development is the Direction that we must follow… to survive with an ever increasing population.
Why not just use the World’s Waterfalls and Water Storage ability to do it with Hydro-Electric Plants ? Surely this is a more Sustainable Development than putting a 500 Pound, Lithium-Ion Battery Pack of every Garage Wall?
By The Way, Manufacturing a Tesla Battery Pack creates the equivalent Co2 of 80,000
miles of driving, using Conventional Gasoline Engines.. How can that be good for
the environment that is so worrisome to these Tall Foreheads?
In 1987 we were told that Global Cooling and an Ice age was coming..
In the 90s, it was Global Warming… now it is Climate Change and we better be
supporting it or we may be jailed for Subversive talk against the big lie.https://chrisy58.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/scientists-speak-out-against-climate-change-deniers-mccarthy-like-threats/

Not even the Rich are very interested in the Tesla… so the Government gives buyers
an $8000 tax rebate… Isn’t that making the Poor pay taxes to support the “One Percent-ers”?

Enjoy the Winter.

Chuck BurtonMonday, January 18, 2016 at 7:55 pm

Over half the 45 markets tracked by Bloomberg are down at least 20%, therefore in bear territory. The S&P500 is officially down a little over 12%, but it has been held up by the 4 FANG stocks which dominate it – now these are turning south. The S&P will soon be an bear territory also, barring a miracle. After the big drop this month, it would not be unusual to have something of a brief recovery. The longer it is delayed, and the farther down it occurs, the weaker it would likely be, however. We shall see.