EW's Oscar predictions

Everyone into the Oscar pool! This year, as an aid to Oscar handicappers everywhere, Entertainment Weekly again provides the ultimate, inside-Hollywood line on the six major awards. Here’s how it works: The pluses and minuses each nominee brings to the race are carefully ranked on a scale of -50 to +50. We add up the positives, subtract the negatives, and voila: the most precise accounting for Academy taste this side of Price Waterhouse.

ROBERT DE NIROCape FearPLUSES: Scary part very different from other 1991 performances (Guilty by Suspicion, Backdraft) +45; lifted weights for role +10; revered actor +10. MINUSES: Hopkins’ psycho had more impact -25; vehicle not well liked in Hollywood -20; has won twice already (share the wealth) -20; has played psychos before (enough already) -10. TOTAL: -10 points

ANTHONY HOPKINSThe Silence of the LambsPLUSES: New York Film Critics and National Board of Review winner +40; showy part in crowd-pleasing Best Picture nominee +35; Hannibal Lecter now part of popular culture +25; could be part of a Silence sweep +25; British roots (Prestige Factor) +15. MINUSES: Smallish role for a lead Oscar (would have had Supporting Oscar all sewn up) -35; will split the crazed-killer vote with Beatty and De Niro -25. TOTAL: 80 points

JODIE FOSTERThe Silence of the LambsPLUSES: Golden Globe and New York Film Critics winner +50; could be part of a Silence sweep +25; respected within the industry and on this year’s top-10- box-office list +20; category’s only nominee in Best Picture contender +20. MINUSES: Part seems subdued next to scenery-chewing Hopkins’ -30; won Best Actress three years ago (share the wealth) -25. TOTAL: 60 points

HARVEY KEITELBugsyPLUSES: Also prominent in sympathetic role in Thelma & Louise +20; veteran character actor never nominated +15; National Society of Film Critics winner +15; could be part of a Bugsy sweep +10; member of Scorsese-De Niro in- crowd +10; goes bald for role A la Oscar winners Dean Jagger and Yul Brynner +5. MINUSES: Costar Ben Kingsley also nominated (Split Vote Factor) -35; Joe Pesci won this category last year as another crude, vicious gangster (enough already) -10. TOTAL: 30 points

BEN KINGSLEYBugsyPLUSES: Gandhi goes gangster in change of pace +30; accent (Lower East Side) +30; British (Prestige Factor) +10; could be part of Bugsy sweep +10. MINUSES: Costar Keitel also nominated (Split Vote Factor) -35; only one in this category to have won before (share the wealth) -20. TOTAL: 25 points

JACK PALANCECity SlickersPLUSES: Sentimental choice with third nomination (he tried to murder Joan Crawford in Sudden Fear in 1952 and dueled Alan Ladd in Shane in 1953) +35; Golden Globe winner +35; endearing role in film that made more money than all his competitors’ combined +25; only nomination for City Slickers +15. MINUSES: Comedy performances perennially undervalued by Academy -25; self- parody not much of a stretch -20; wore a business suit to black-tie Golden Globes -5. TOTAL: 60 points

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

DIANE LADDRambling RosePLUSES: Opportunity for mother-daughter winners may be irresistible +25; career award for going from drive-in movies (The Wild Angels) to A-list parties (Liz Taylor’s birthday) +20; nominated twice before +20; shows virtuosity by playing nurturing mother after loony mom last year in Wild at Heart +20; will use clout to do her dream film on Watergate-era oddity Martha Mitchell +10. MINUSES: Actors in films made by nonmajor studios rarely win -25; slight box office -20. TOTAL: 50 points

KATE NELLIGANThe Prince of TidesPLUSES: Ages on screen from young beauty to bitter matron +15; shows moxie for becoming character actress after stab at leading lady didn’t work out +10; only one in category in a Best Picture nominee +10; Acceptance Speech Factor (will praise Streisand) +10; good breeding (New York and London stage) +10; National Board of Review Award (albeit for Frankie & Johnny) +5. MINUSES: Little screen time -20; lives in New York -10. TOTAL: 30 points

MERCEDES RUEHLThe Fisher KingPLUSES: L.A. Film Critics winner (as Lead Actress) and Golden Globe +50; The Fisher King unlikely to win any other Oscars +20; good breeding (New York stage) +10; won the Tony last spring for role she’ll re-create in Lost in Yonkers movie +5. MINUSES: Performance goes over the top -20; lives in New York -10. TOTAL: 55 points

JESSICA TANDYFried Green TomatoesPLUSES: Beloved thespian has bumped Helen Hayes from the title of Grand Old Lady of American Acting (even though she was born in Britain) +30; warm role in popular film +20; only one of Tomatoes’ quartet of actresses nominated +20. MINUSES: Won Best Actress just two years ago (share the wealth) -25. TOTAL: 45 points

BEST DIRECTOR

JONATHAN DEMMEThe Silence of the LambsPLUSES: Directors Guild winner +50; New York Film Critics and National Board of Review winner +35; made crowd-pleasing thriller that critics loved too +25; has inventive, offbeat portfolio (Melvin and Howard, Stop Making Sense, etc.) +10. MINUSES: Lurid nature of film -25; lives in New York -10. TOTAL: 85 points

RIDLEY SCOTTThelma & LouisePLUSES: Nominated for Directors Guild award +25; might get the feminist vote that would have gone to Streisand +15. MINUSES: Film’s not up for Best Picture -45; insecure males might consider him a traitor to his gender -10. TOTAL: -15 points

JOHN SINGLETONBoyz N the HoodPLUSES: Could make history as the first black filmmaker and youngest director +35. MINUSES: Film’s not up for Best Picture -45; no Directors Guild nomination -25; too young (Envy Factor) -15. TOTAL: -50 points

Beauty and the BeastPLUSES: Chance to make history by giving top Oscar to an animated film +45; only all-out “feel-good” movie nominated +45; last G-rated musical winner was Oliver!, 23 years ago (Family Values Factor) +35; Golden Globe winner +30; $100 million-grossers club +20; victory would be a tribute to late lyricist Howard Ashman +15. MINUSES: Actors, making up biggest block of members, may be wary of voting for movie in which none of them appear -35; anti-Jeffrey Katzenberg sentiment -30; kid-oriented movies usually don’t win (Star Wars, Raiders of the Lost Ark) -30; no director or screenplay nominations -20. TOTAL: 75 points

THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBSPLUSES: New York Film Critics, Producers Guild of America, National Board of Review winner +50; foundering studio Orion needs all the encouragement it can get +45; $100 million-grossers club +20; cassettes mailed to voters +10; film having second wind through cable showings +10. MINUSES: Too lurid -35; genre is not an Oscar favorite (last thriller to win was The French Connection 20 years ago) -20. TOTAL: 80 points

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