After a 2% decline in worldwide TV shipments last year, 2016 is showing signs of a turnaround, with the market flattening out to end the year on 225 million units, achieving a value of $86 billion according to a new report from Futuresource Consulting.

“Although we’ve seen the overall global picture stabilise this year, there have still been some major events at a country level with France likely to see 20% growth whilst Mexico and Brazil are both forecast to suffer declines of over 10%,” says Jack Wetherill, senior market analyst at Futuresource Consulting.

“Our research generates market data for 25 different countries and we’re seeing signs that demand in China will grow by at least 5% this year, with the country accounting for one out of every five TV shipments on the planet. India and other countries within Asia Pac are also making a positive impact on the worldwide figures.”

“The brakes are on in Eastern Europe, where the effects of the Russian downturn have hit hard. Beyond the successes in France, Germany and the UK, Western Europe is also feeling the pinch, and Latin America is taking a slide,” added David Tett, market analyst at Futuresource.

“With several political and economic storylines playing out on the world stage, it’s a tricky landscape for many to gauge and our comprehensive approach ensures a robust dataset, with our forecasts showing a 3% CAGR out to 2020.”

Although 4K UHD growth is lower than expected, particularly in the USA, it continues to perform strongly, with shipments forecast to increase by 75% in 2016, accounting for 25% of all TV shipments. On Black Friday, Futuresource research suggests that 4K UHD TVs will be the showpiece product for many retailers. Deals offering hundreds of dollars off 4K UHD sets are expected from a wide variety of vendors in the US and the many other markets which now embrace the sales event. By 2020, 4K UHD’s share will rise to 60% of total worldwide shipments.

Meanwhile, Smart TVs are on target to account for 59% of total shipments in 2016, but remains weak in some markets due to entrenched alternatives like Pay TV or slow internet speeds. Despite this, Smart TV will be a feature shipped in three out of every four sets by 2020.

OLED is still emerging from its niche, with 2016 bearing witness to an increase in the number of vendors producing TV sets with OLED panels. Shipments will reach nearly 1 million units in 2016; although this accounts for less than 0.5% of total market volumes it represents 3% in value terms, due to the premium positioning and associated pricing.

Looking to the brands, Samsung and LG continue to dominate in Europe, whilst LG takes third spot in the US behind Samsung and Vizio. Meanwhile Chinese vendors are still working to gain a foothold in these lucrative markets. In Japan, Sharp is ahead of the game, and Skyworth and Hisense are battling it out for first position in China.