According to D Sivananda Pai, India's chief monsoon forecaster, the El Nino condition that prevailed during the past two years and brought drought to India, had weakened significantly by May-end. The rainfall all over the nation is likely to be 107% of the long period average in July and 104% in August; there's a 96% probability that monsoon will be "normal and in excess". There are also zero per cent chances of the monsoon being deficient this year. The southwest monsoon would be 106% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), with a model error of ± 4%, the department said, even as it said its arrival at the Kerala coast, where it first hits the southern peninsula, was delayed by four to five days from the usual date of June 1.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and announced that it is expected rain in the Southern part of the country in four to five days. What would add to cheer is a 96% probability of the monsoon rainfalls being normal or excess.

Eastern and northeastern India is likely to receive 94 per cent of the average, but weather scientists point out that this should not be seen as a significant deficit because of the relatively high absolute rainfall in the eastern region.

Although India's rain-dependent agriculture sector accounts for about 15 percent of the $2 trillion economy, two-thirds of the country's 1.3 billion people depend on the farm sector for their livelihood.

Due to poor monsoon in the 2015-16 crop year (July-June), 10 states have declared drought and the Centre has sanctioned about Rs. 10,000 crore by way of relief to help the farmers.

Several parts of the country are reeling under intense drought-like conditions, especially Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra and Bundelkhand, which is spread over Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

An extended range weather forecast, as per the National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin, said the main rainfall belt will sit over extreme South India and parts of North-East India from June 3 to 9. However, Rathore refused to comment on it. "Conditions are favourable for further progress of the monsoon in next 4-5 days", Rathore said.

What is the reading telling you in terms of quantity and distribution of rains this time?

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