January 23, 2008: The Taliban are
putting more effort into targeted assassinations. The Islamic terrorists want
to kill government and tribal officials who are working out peace and
reconstruction deals. While the Taliban have some popular support, it is from a
minority of the people in the south Afghan regions where the Islamic radicals
operate.

The Taliban are also suffering from the
increased anti-Taliban activity across the border in Pakistan. There, the Pakistani
Taliban have literally gone to war with the government. That's something the
Pakistani Taliban have avoided until now, because, for all their fierce
reputation, the Pakistani Pushtun tribes are seriously outgunned by the
Pakistani army and air force. It's not like the old days, where the wily tribal
warriors could hit and run. The Pakistani troops now have helicopters, GPS and
artillery. No more with the lowlander troops getting lost in the mountains and
constantly ambushed by tribesmen. And when something interesting is found,
these troops can call in artillery or helicopter gunships to do the dirty work.

The Pushtun tribes make a big deal
about Pakistani troops refusing to fight "fellow Moslems." That's partly true,
but it's not the religious angle that causes the problem, it's that Pushtuns
comprise over 20 percent of the military. The hill tribes are poor, uneducated
and in a region with few economic opportunities. So lots of the more capable
young men join the army. When the find themselves back in the hills, facing a
battle with their own tribe, they often express misgivings to their commander.
In most cases, arrangements are made to avoid a family tragedy. The problem is
real, the extent is limited, and it is not changing the bad battlefield odds
the tribes face.

Similar problems are found in the
Afghan army, but to a much lesser extent. The screening process in Afghanistan keeps
out more of the recruits who might be conflicted if faced with hostile Taliban
kinsmen. So while the Afghan army becomes more professional and skilled, the
Taliban become less so. For example, this week, there was an explosion in a
house in southern Afghanistan. It was the home of a "former" Taliban.
Examination of the scene, where four people were found dead, revealed that a
suicide bomb belt was involved. It apparently went off prematurely. According
to informants, the local Taliban suicide squad was having recruiting and
training problems. Skilled bomb technicians were in short supply.

One area where the Taliban have had
some success is in shutting down schools. The Taliban insist that only religious
schools, that teach mainly religion (namely their hard core brand of conservative
Islam) should be allowed. State schools are also hated because they let girls
attend. This is a big no-no to the Taliban. Most Afghans disagree. Outside of
southern Afghanistan, 40 percent of students are girls. But in the south, the
Taliban have prevented 300,000 children from attending school. That's about ten
percent of the national school population. Mainly the Taliban threaten teachers
with death, and burn down school buildings when they have the opportunity. This
plays well to the Taliban core supporters, but these are only a small
percentage of the south Afghan population. Most of the people down there are
enraged at the school closings.

Taliban attacks killed about 2,000
civilians last year, but terrorized more than a hundred times more people.
Police have never been a common sight in rural parts of the country, with disorder
historically taken care of by tribal militias. But in this case, the Taliban
are a tribal militia, representing one, of many, armed factions present in most
tribes. The problem is that there are dozens of these Taliban groups throughout southern Afghanistan, and
not enough Afghan army and police units to keep after all of them. The foreign
troops don't speak the language, but can move through an area, with translators
in tow, and kill or capture any Taliban they encounter. While some Taliban are
smart enough to flee the approach of Western troops, many are not. They stick
around, get spotted by UAVs, or given up by local villagers, and are killed by
a smart bomb, or gun fire from the foreign troops.

The average Taliban despises the
foreign troops for not being Afghan warriors. But in a gun battle, the foreign
troops are more expert killers. Many Taliban warriors die without realizing
this. While the warriors can scramble up and down the hills more quickly, and
often know the neighborhood hills better, they are lousy fighters. But they
make great bullies. In addition to shutting down schools, the Taliban are also
trying to halt food headed for parts of the south suffering from shortages. The
Taliban considers taking such aid from infidel (non-Moslem) foreigners as
sinful.

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