Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Gleeman does a great job of making Larkin's case based on OPS vs. his positional contemporaries, Runs Created vs. same and all-time shortstop Win Shares. I think it's a compelling case. But what does our Genetic Algorithm-based rule say?

Metric

Required Criteria

Barry Larkin

Match?

Games

>2794

2180

no

AB

>3967

7937

YES

Runs

>1145

1329

YES

Hits

>1297

2340

YES

TotalBases

>4432

3527

no

Doubles

>252

441

YES

Triples

>14

76

YES

HR

>355

198

no

RBI

>325

960

YES

StolenBases

>341

379

YES

BB

>658

939

YES

HBP

>9

55

YES

Strikeouts

<2087

817

YES

Errors

<399

235

YES

NumAllStars

>9

12

YES

Psbb

>1

7

YES

Psstrikeouts

<42

4

YES

Psslugging

>0.269

0.465

YES

PSOBP

>0.010

0.397

YES

With 16 matches out of 19 possibilities, Larkin is a definite Hall of Famer, according to our rule. Remember, we require 14 matches, so Larkin's well past the barrier.

The problem, as Gleeman says is that "in addition to the overall increase in offense that Larkin missed out on in his younger years, the end of his career coincides with the emergence of several outstanding offensive shortstops." Larkin may be facing an uphill battle for election, but I think he will eventually be (deservingly) enshrined.

Friday, February 18, 2005

I've been meaning to write this post for a long time. Late this summer, we interviewed a recent college grad to work in the Marketing department here at my company, TheLadders.com (the place to go for your $100k+ job search). As I was chatting with him, he mentioned that he's into baseball a little bit. Naturally, I prodded, and he forked over his research paper.

This paper will use an alternate methodology for modeling called Genetic Algorithms. Using that method, several logical, rather than mathematical, rules for election to the baseball Hall of Fame will be found and examined. Predictions about future election, as well as past elections will be made. Ultimately, one rule will be picked as best, and examined in more depth than the others.

And the ultimate conclusion - For position players, you must meet at least 14 of the following criteria.

Games

>2794

AB

>3967

Runs

>1145

Hits

>1297

TotalBases

>4432

Doubles

>252

Triples

>14

HR

>355

RBI

>325

StolenBases

>341

BB

>658

HBP

>9

Strikeouts

<2087

Errors

<399

NumAllStars

>9

Psbb

>1

Psstrikeouts

<42

Psslugging

>0.269

PSOBP

>0.010

Read the full paper - it's fascinating. And to my knowledge, matching fourteen of the nineteen criteria above does indeed lead to Hall of Fame election. There are no eligible position players that both (a) meet the criteria and (b) are not enshrined in Cooperstown.

So, who is currently playing or recently retired that will be elected to the HOF according to these rules? Who's just missing the cut? These are the kinds of questions I wanted to answer before I posted the article, but I simply haven't found the time. Now, I'm hoping that you can help. Run recent players through these rules and post your results somewhere - or email me at andrew AT andrewkoch DOT com and I'll post 'em for you.

And by the way, Dave Cohen is doing a great job in our Marketing dept...

Thursday, February 17, 2005

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That's it for now. We hope you like Gmail and will share it with your friends. We've got lots of cool new stuff planned and we can't wait for you to see our work in your Gmail accounts! Stay tuned...

Wednesday, February 9, 2005

In his post, Tom Petty Was Right, Mike Carminati asks, "What is the current longest wait for a sports city?" Where a sports city is a metro area with a team in each of the four major sports.

I was a little surprised to find that the SF Bay Area is #3 on his list with a no-championship drought of 10 years. Only Philadelpha (21 years) and Minneapolis (13 years) have been waiting for a championship longer than the Bay Area.

After your team wins a championship, they immediately get a five-year grace period: You can't complain about anything that happens (trades, draft picks, salary-cap cuts, coaching moves) for five years. There are no exceptions.

...And the Bay Area has had it's share of Championships. So, when did our grace period end? If you stand our grace periods end-on-end, when did they expire? Are they still going?

That's twelve championships, and 60 total years of "grace period" starting in 1972. That would mean we're still in our grace period all the way out to 2032, assuming we don't win another championship. But that just doesn't feel right. The first game of any kind that I remember watching was the '84 Super Bowl, so I shouldn't get a grace period for those championships I've only read about.

That leaves five "personal" championships starting in 1984. In that case, my own personal grace period should expire in 2009.

And it's a little different if you look at it on a team-by-team basis. I don't really care for the Raiders, Giants or Warriors, so I'll ignore them. But for the A's, we've been out of the grace period now for ten years - If you're only an A's fan, you can complain about damn near anything (and we do).

As for the 49ers, their five championships starting in 1981 will carry you through two more seasons to 2006 - my own personal grace period with the niners (excluding the '81 victory), however, expired at the end of the 2004 season.

So, I'll consider myself in a 20% grace period. I can certainly complain about either my A's or my 49ers without incurring the wrath of the sports gods, but I have been lucky enough to experience five championships. So, I suppose I shouldn't be too bitter about it. After all, they're just games, right?

But although Jacksonville's time at the center of the sports universe is over, city leaders hope the impression the city made while hosting football's biggest game will result in more visitors and commerce.

"We did nothing but improve our chances with our performance as a community," said Michael Kelly, chairman of the Super Bowl Host Committee. "We showed we cared about it."