School of Management

Bureau of Economic Research

Housed within the Marist School of Management, the Bureau of Economic Research typically releases five reports each year regarding different aspects of the Hudson Valley economy, including household income, income tax analysis, commutation patterns of workers, migration, and overall employment and wages. The Bureau also conducts economic impact studies, as well as forecasting and policy analysis. Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi is the Director.
Media queries: To interview Dr. Caridi, please contact Julia Fishman, Director of Media Relations (julia.fishman@marist.edu; 845-575-3430).

Over the five-year period, migratory activity across the Hudson Valley resulted in a net loss of 24,295 households. One in 17.8 households moved out of the Hudson Valley. Total migratory activity resulted in a net loss of $2.198 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI). The region lost 40,541 households to interstate migration; intrastate migration resulted in a net gain of 16,910 households. Consistent with trend, Putnam County experienced the highest level of intrastate migration. In all cases, intrastate migratory activity exceeded that of interstate migratory activity. Consistent with trend, the largest net inflow (19,129 households) came from New York City (NYC), with the majority of these households migrating from Bronx County. In both Rockland and Westchester counties, the main source of migratory inflows was NYC. Nontrivial migratory activity with contiguous counties — interstate and intrastate — is a strong indicator that significant migratory activity was due to reasons other than a change in employment. Putnam County was most likely to experience migratory activity with a contiguous county at more than one-half of all migratory inflows and outflows.

With the exception of Rockland and Westchester, the most important migratory activity was intraregional. Consistent with trend, the Northeast Region was the most important source of inflows into the Hudson Valley, while the Southern Region was the most important destination for households leaving the Hudson Valley. As a percentage of all interstate migration, outbound migration to the Southern Region was the highest in Sullivan, followed by Ulster, Orange, and Dutchess. Northeast regional migration, as a percentage of all interstate migration, was the highest in Rockland County at more than one-half of all interstate inflows and slightly less than one-half of all interstate outflows.

Over the five-year period, migratory activity across the Hudson Valley resulted in a net loss of 21,517 households. The region lost 36,615 households to interstate migration; intrastate migration resulted in a net gain of 15,010 households. On average, one out of every 18.1 households left the region. The ratio of migrants to non-migrants
ranged from a high of 1:15.5 in Putnam to a low of 1:20.8 in Rockland. Total migratory activity resulted in a net loss of $991.47 million in adjusted gross income (AGI). In all cases, intrastate migratory activity exceeded that of interstate migratory activity.

Putnam County experienced the highest level of intrastate migration at 77.27 percent of all inflows and 62.78 percent of all outflows. Rockland the lowest, at 55.21 percent and 43.63 percent, respectively. Consistent with trend, the largest net inflow (17,417) came from New York City (NYC) with the majority of these households migrating from Bronx County (The Bronx).

In both Rockland and Westchester the most important migratory activity occurred with NYC. Across the balance of the region, the most important was intra-regional. A non-trivial migratory activity with contiguous counties—interstate and intrastate—is a strong indicator that an important level of migratory activity was due to a reason other than a change in employment. Putnam County was the most likely to experience migratory activity with a contiguous county while Rockland and Dutchess were the least likely.

Consistent with trend, the Northeast Region was the most important source of inflows into the Hudson Valley while the Southern Region was the most important destination for households leaving the Hudson Valley. Outbound migration to the Southern Region as a percent of all interstate migration was the highest in Sullivan followed by Orange and Ulster. Northeast Regional migration as a percent of all interstate migration was the highest in Rockland County at more than one-half of both inflows and outflows.

In the 10-year period from 2004 to 2013, private-sector jobs in the Hudson Valley region increased slightly, rising at an annual rate of 0.12 percent. Of these jobs, those paying above-average wages declined nearly 1.5 percent, while those that pay below-average wages increased 0.91 percent. This shift in the private sector job-count from high- to low-wage jobs is consistent with state and national trends. During the same period, public-sector jobs declined, especially after the Great Recession of 2008; as of 2013, there were five private-sector jobs in the region for every one in the public sector. Public-sector wages, however, saw an increase in relation to the private sector. The ratio of average private-sector wages was 92 cents for every dollar of public-sector wages in 2004; that ratio fell to 82 cents per dollar by 2013, reflecting the systematic wage increases common in the public sector.

Year-over-year per-capita TPI in the Hudson Valley advanced 0.13 percent, rising from $62,132 in 2012 to $62,216 in 2013. This increase is explained by a 0.62 percent increase in TPI coupled with a 0.49 percent increase in population. Over the same one-year period, per-capita TPI in the U.S. and New York State advanced 1.28 percent and 0.67 percent, respectively.

Within the region, per-capita TPI in Westchester ($80,363), Putnam ($58,955) and Rockland ($56,657) counties exceeded per-capita income in both the U.S. ($44,765) and New York State ($54,462). Per-capita TPI in Dutchess County ($49,627) was above the national level, but fell short compared to the statewide average. Per-capita TPI incomes in Ulster ($44,527), Orange ($43,788) and Sullivan ($41,197) counties were below both the national and statewide levels.

Weak labor-force participation continues to impact the region. Year over year, the regional labor force was little changed, decreasing 0.62 percent from 1,115,867 in the first quarter of 2013 to 1,108,900 in the first quarter of 2014. The reduction in labor-force participation was widespread, with every county in the region with the exception of Ulster posting a year-over-year reduction. Statewide, labor-force participation fell slightly from 9,604,700 in the first quarter of 2013 to 9,586,533 in the first quarter of the current year, while participation in the national (civilian) labor force posted a moderate increase of 0.24 percent, rising from 155.4 million to 155.8 million.

Over the 10-year period ending in 2012, private-sector job creation in the Hudson Valley grew at an annualized rate of less than two tenths of one percent (0.19 percent). Nearby regions fared better with the New York City Region posting the highest rate of growth at 1.24 percent followed by the Long Island and Capital regions at 0.36 percent and 0.29 percent, respectively. Statewide, private-sector job creation grew at an annualized rate of 0.61 percent per year. Across the state, the annual rate of job creation ranged from a high of 2.01 percent in Kings County (New York City Region) to a low of -2.03 percent in Hamilton County. Overall, ten counties reported private-sector job growth greater than 1 percent per annum while a little more than forty percent of all counties ( 25 counties) reported zero to negative job growth rates.

Year over year, labor-force participation was up slightly, employment advanced and the number of unemployed fell. Because employment grew at a faster rate than the labor force, the regional unemployment rate posted a year-over-year decrease of 1.22 percentage points, from 7.76 percent in the third quarter of 2012 to 6.54 percent in the third quarter of 2013. Overall, labor-force participation increased less than one tenth of one percent (600), rising from 1,138,100 to 1,138,700, while employment rose 1.37 percent (14,433) from 1,049,833 to 1,064,266. For the period, the labor force expanded in Westchester (2,700), Rockland (1,267) and Putnam (333) and fell in Dutchess (-1,533), Orange (-1,400), Sullivan (-433) and Ulster (-333).

With the exception of Sullivan County, employment expanded across the region. Counties in the lower Hudson Valley—Westchester, Rockland and Putnam—recorded the highest overall increases at 1.89 percent (8,400), 1.85 percent (2,733) and 1.84 percent (933), respectively. In the upper Hudson Valley, employment increased 1.17 percent (933) in Ulster County, 0.50 percent (667) in Dutchess County and 0.48 percent (767) in Orange County. Employment in Sullivan County was unchanged.

Over the same period, labor-force participation in New York State increased 0.69 percent (66,200) from 9,646,300 to 9,712,500 while employment advanced 1.79 percent (157,767) from 8,824,900 to 8,982,667. Participation in the national (civilian) labor force posted a moderate year-over-year increase of 0.46% (700,000), rising from 154.9 million to 155.6 million; employment rose 1.26 percent (1.8 million) from 142.5 million to 144.3 million.

Since the end of the Great Recession in June of 2009, GDP has grown slightly less than 2.00 percent per year: high enough to maintain the current level of joblessness, but not of sufficient magnitude to provide full employment. Continued contraction in public-sector spending and employment is adding to this weakness as is the household sector’s unwillingness to forego saving and/or incur debt to support current consumption. There are pockets of growth in both the national and regional economies and the housing sector has begun to build a sustainable bottom. However, overall economic activity will not fully recover until the average household witnesses sustained income growth.