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Already furious over President Trump’s visa ban, Iran warned the United States on Tuesday not to escalate tensions over tests of Iranian missiles — tests that his administration’s new United Nations ambassador called “absolutely unacceptable.” – New York TimesIran's alleged decision to test a ballistic missile last Sunday could present President Trump with his first major foreign policy challenge as he grapples with how he should confront an emboldened Tehran. – Washington ExaminerIran's defense minister said on Wednesday the Islamic Republic had tested a new missile, but added the test did not breach Tehran's nuclear accord with world powers or a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the pact. - ReutersEditorial: What the Administration can’t afford is to allow the latest test to pass without a response. That would tell Iranians they can develop missiles and threaten neighbors with impunity. Mr. Trump is keen to show he will honor his campaign promises, and charting a tougher course against Iran is one of them. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Why China and Russia Fear U.S. Navy's New Ford-Class CarriersFrom Kyle Mizokami, The National Interest: "In 2009, the U.S. Navy finally began construction of the first new type of aircraft carrier in nearly thirty-five years. Named after former president and naval aviator Gerald R. Ford, the USS Ford fully takes the nuclear supercarrier into the twenty-first century. The technological innovations built into the new ship, while causing the inevitable delays involved in building a first-in-class vessel, will keep the Navy's unique fleet of super flattops the largest and most advanced in the world for the foreseeable future."

CHINA: Chinese Aircraft Carrier Program Progressing Substantially Into the New YearFrom Mike Yeo, Defense News: “. . . Meanwhile, the same shipyard at Dalian that refurbished the Liaoning is building China’s second carrier. Known for now as the 001A — the Liaoning was designated the Type 001 — the new carrier is broadly similar to the Liaoning and retains the ski jump for launching aircraft, but contains a revised flight deck arrangement and other differences.”

Keith Payne writes: The long-held notion that uncertainty and ambiguity with regard to Western escalation will be adequate to support deterrence needs to be reconsidered. The historical evidence is overwhelming that uncertainty and ambiguity sometimes are not adequate to deter; explicit and direct threats are necessary in some cases. The Putin regime may be such a case. A useful example of a more direct declaratory policy was provided in 2016 by the then-new British Prime Minister, Theresa May when asked in Parliament if she would ever authorize a nuclear strike. She responded yes without hesitation. – National Institute for Public PolicyLTG David Deptula, USAF (Ret.) writes: As threats become more capable and proliferate, we will need a much larger number of B-21s—the next generation long-range sensor-shooter—than the handful of B-2’s we have at the ready today. The B-21 will become the centerpiece of our Nation’s future power projection capabilities across the spectrum of conflict that we will face. Accordingly, the B-21 must become a key priority in the new Trump Administration if it is to achieve its goal of making our military strong again, and doing so in a cost-effective manner. – Breaking DefenseAdam Lowther writes: [A]t an estimated cost of $60 billion to $80 billion over the next three decades—ten percent of the military’s total planned modernization expenditure—development and fielding of GBSD is an absolute bargain and will offer the greatest return on investment of any modernization effort. In time, the Air Force will undoubtedly make the case to Gen. Mattis for the ICBM — and a compelling case it will be. – Defense One

New Threat Realities and Deterrence RequirementsFrom Keith B. Payne, NIPP: “For most of the previous twenty-five years, US policy increasingly has been captured by three related refrains regarding the post-Cold War era: 1) nuclear terrorism was the remaining greatest threat; 2) nonproliferation was the highest priority and key to countering this greatest threat; and, 3) in turn, US nuclear reductions and limitations were the key to nonproliferation.” ​

Nuclear Balancing and the Curse of the Heavy ICBMFrom Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Stable nuclear balances are those in which neither side feels pressure to fire first. And that typically goes to the shape of an arsenal, not simply its size. Take the case of an arms control agreement between two superpowers to limit their countable nuclear warheads to 1,000. (I use the adjective ‘countable’, because warhead numbers typically depend upon agreed counting rules for specific delivery vehicles.) Country A chooses to deploy 300 single-warhead ICBMs in fixed silos, 600 warheads on multiple-warhead (MIRVed) missiles at sea, and 100 warheads on its long-range strategic bombers. Country B chooses to build 100 ICBMs, each with 10 warheads, in fixed silos.” ​

The 5 Best Aircraft Carriers in Naval HistoryFrom James Holmes, The National Interest: “Anyone who's tried to compare one piece of kit—ships, aircraft, weaponry of various types—to another will testify to how hard this chore is. Ranking aircraft carriers is no exception. Consulting the pages of Jane's Fighting Ships or Combat Fleets of the World sheds some light on the problem. For instance, a flattop whose innards house a nuclear propulsion plant boasts virtually unlimited cruising range, whereas a carrier powered by fossil fuels is tethered to its fuel source. As Alfred Thayer Mahan puts it, a conventional warship bereft of bases or a coterie of logistics ships is a "land bird" unable to fly far from home.” ​

Reawakening of the Threat of Identity Conflicts at the End of Globalization. Michael Vlahos @jhuworldcrisis.

“…Serbian and Kosovar leaders agreed to continue talks after a tense meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (24 January), which only succeeded in further antagonising the two sides. EurActiv Serbia reports.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said normalising relations between Serbia and Kosvo was vital for the two countries, but her guests seemed unwilling to make any concessions.
On the contrary. Tensions escalated before the meeting when Serbia attempted to send a passenger train emblazoned with the slogan “Kosovo is Serbia” in several languages to the Serb enclave of northern Kosovo.

Pristina regarded it as a provocation and sent its ROSU special police forces to the north, forcing Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić to stop the controversial train from entering Kosovo.
Vučić’s decision halted the escalation, but tensions remained. Belgrade accused Pristina of jeopardising the safety of Kosovo Serbs by sending its security forces to the north, while Pristina stuck to its accusations that sending the controversial train had been a provocation to which the Kosovo authorities had to respond.

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić added fuel to the fire by saying Serbia would deploy its army in Kosovo if the local Serbs were endangered, triggering heated reactions in Kosovo.
​
This tense background explains why the meeting in Brussels, attended by Presidents Nikolić and Hashim Thaçi, and Prime Ministers Vučić and Isa Mustafa, was considered so important….”http://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/tensions-flare-at-serbia-kosovo-meeting/

David Satter writes: Many years have gone by, but no Chechen has ever been convicted of participating in the [1999] apartment bombings, whereas the evidence of FSB involvement is overwhelming. It is time for the CIA to help resolve this issue. I don’t believe that there is a genuine risk to national security in releasing the redacted documents, but the CIA needs to act in order to prevent the far greater national-security disaster that would result from a partnership with Putin in the War on Terror. – National Review Online

Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) writes: When it comes to developing and implementing U.S. policy towards Africa, I urge you to draw on the decades of expertise from individuals of both parties, including members of the African diaspora community and private sector leaders whose knowledge and experience transcends party affiliation. Mr. President, I know I speak for both Republican and Democratic colleagues in Congress when I say that we look forward to working with you to shape our policy towards Africa. – The American Interest

President Donald J. Trump’s decision to build a wall along the southern border escalated into a diplomatic standoff on Thursday, with Mexico’s president publicly canceling a scheduled meeting at the White House and Mr. Trump firing back, accusing Mexico of burdening the United States with illegal immigrants, criminals and a trade deficit. – New York TimesHunkered down in the presidential palace, Enrique Peña Nieto, the unpopular leader of Mexico, was besieged on both sides. The new American president, Donald J. Trump, had just ordered the construction of a border wall between the two countries, and the public outcry in Mexico was deafening. Top cabinet officials, meanwhile, counseled caution, urging Mr. Peña Nieto not to cancel his meeting with Mr. Trump at the White House next week. – New York TimesEditorial: Mr. Trump is a foreign-affairs neophyte, but he is already learning that nations can’t be bullied like GOP candidates or CEOs. They have their own nationalist political dynamics and when attacked they push back. Mr. Trump said as a candidate that he’d treat America’s friends better than Mr. Obama did, but his first move has been to treat Mexico like Mr. Obama treated Israel. On present course he may get comparable results, or worse. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Sadanand Dhume writes: Though Mr. Modi towers over his party colleagues, a defeat may lead some of them to question his tight grip on the BJP through party president Amit Shah, a trusted lieutenant. It would throw the Congress Party, at its lowest ebb in 70 years, a much-needed lifeline. The former ruling party may not boast a leader as charismatic as Mr. Modi, but it will have shown its ability to anchor a disparate coalition united against the BJP. Whatever the outcome, Uttar Pradesh will help set the political tone for the remainder of Mr. Modi’s term. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities StretchFrom Stratfor: “China has had a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States since the early 1980s, the Dongfeng-5, but it has issues that have recently limited its effectiveness as a deterrent. Its liquid fuel propellant means that it must undergo a lengthy fueling process before it can be launched, and its lack of mobility renders its silos vulnerable to strikes by increasingly accurate munitions. Those threats to its survivability reduce its value as a minimum credible deterrence. China needed to upgrade to a more survivable missile inventory given its historically smaller nuclear arsenal and no-first-use doctrine." ​

An executive order apparently drafted by the Trump administration calls for a policy review that could authorize the CIA to reopen “black site” prisons overseas and potentially restart an interrogation program that was dismantled in 2009 after using methods widely condemned as torture. – Washington PostPresident Donald Trump drew sharp criticism Wednesday from Republicans as well as Democrats on Capitol Hill over the prospect of an administration review of U.S. policy on the interrogation and detention of enemy combatants, a move that could lay the groundwork for resuming the use of techniques once banned as torture. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Two of the officials who will be in charge of carrying out President Donald Trump's terrorism detainee policies, Defense Secretary James Mattis and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, were “blindsided” by reports of a draft executive order that would require the CIA to reconsider using interrogation techniques that some consider torture, according to sources with knowledge of their thinking. - PoliticoPresident Trump said Wednesday he believes that torture “works” and would consider reinstating banned interrogation methods depending on the advice of members of his national security team. – The Hill

Stanley McChrystal on War in Europe, Privacy, and Global Threats From Michael Miklaucic, PRISM Magazine: “What do you see as the starkest, most challenging characteristics of the emerging global threat environment? McChrystal: There are two characteristics of concern. First is the reemergence of great power nationalism; the rise of China, the reemergence of Russia, both with enough power and self-confidence to go back to traditional nationalist objectives. Russia is trying to move back into areas in Ukraine and perhaps even into the Baltic States, to try to reassert itself. That is a natural ebb and flow of power going back hundreds of years. I don’t think we saw the end of history in 1989; rather we are back on the track of history. Russia and China are major factors, and they are enough that we might not be in a post-modern period of history. A European war is not unthinkable. People who want to believe a war in Europe is not possible might be in for a surprise. We have to acknowledge great power politics; we can’t pretend they are gone . . .”

America Is a Maritime NationFrom Robert Kaplan, RealClearWorld: “The United States, bordered by two oceans, is a maritime nation. Not only is its Navy the largest in the world by far, but its coast guard would qualify as the 12th largest fleet in the world. The U.S. Navy is America's foremost strategic instrument -- much more so than its nuclear arsenal, which in all probability can never be used. The U.S. Navy is on the high seas around the world in peacetime as well as in wartime, guarding the sea lines of communication and the main maritime choke points. This, in turn, allows for a free global trading regime and guarantees access to hydrocarbons for America's allies. This Navy, by the way, also allows for an inland strike capacity. To wit, America bombed Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo from warships in the Indian Ocean and the Adriatic Sea.” ​

The 5 Most Dangerous (and Destructive) Navies of All TimeFrom Kyle Mizokami, The National Interest: “The most powerful navy of each period of human history is always relative. The Greek Navy recounted by Herodotus is nowhere near as powerful as the U.S. Navy of Samuel Eliot Morison. Both made a sizable contribution to the security of their respective countries. Each was the most powerful navy of its time, and shaped the world around it to make the world we know today.” ​

CHINA: China Announces Deployment of New Nuclear ICBMFrom Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics: “In a rare move, China has publicly announced the deployment of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The Dong Feng ("East Wind") -41 missile, or DF-41, can carry up to a dozen nuclear warheads and China claims it has the longest range of any nuclear missile in the world. The announcement of the missiles is likely a warning to U.S. President Donald Trump, who is known for sharply worded anti-Chinese rhetoric and has announced plans for a new ballistic missile system.”

Roger Burg writes: The increasingly unstable global security environment calls for the United State’s leaders to have the most flexible and capable nuclear deterrent force possible, which the nation cannot have without a modern ICBM force. Extensive nuclear modernization programs under way by potential adversary nations require US recapitalization to avoid a serious erosion of American nuclear deterrent capability. Failing to invest in a recapitalization of the nuclear deterrent, especially in the ICBM force, will merely clear a path to obsolescence and eventual dissolution. – Breaking Defense

The unshakeable reliability of Britain’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent has been called into question after a Trident II D5 ballistic missile reportedly veered off course during a test last year. – USNI News

Alexander Cooley writes: For some in the West, the illiberal agenda has been folded into the broader framework of anti-globalism, signaling the intent to disengage from multilateral commitments abroad and pursue economic and political nationalism at home. But for the United States, weakening the liberal consensus on the importance of democratic norms in the interest of pragmatic dealmaking also risks eroding the extensive global network of alliances, institutions, and cooperative agreements that have buttressed U.S. global power since World War II. – Real Clear World

Trump & Special Op'sJoshua Kurlantzick writes: Turning a global conflict over to secret warriors poses the same risks today. The fighting could foster abuses with almost no oversight, kill civilians and thus alienate local populations. And secret forces simply may not have the ability to manage a widening conflict. If the new administration plans to really expand the field of fight, it will ultimately have to make more use of the conventional U.S. military. – Washington Post

A spokesman for Gambia’s new president said allegations that the country’s longtime leader looted millions of dollars in his final weeks in office shouldn’t have been made before a through investigation. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Starvation in northern Nigeria’s Borno State is so bad that a whole slice of the population — children under 5 — appears to have died, aid agencies say. – New York TimesJust a few years ago, South Sudan accomplished what seemed impossible: independence. Of all the quixotic rebel armies fighting for freedom in Africa, the South Sudanese actually won. Global powers, including the United States, rallied to their side, helping to create the world’s newest country in 2011, a supposed solution to decades of conflict and suffering. Now, with millions of its people hungry or displaced by civil war, a radical question has emerged: Should South Sudan lose its independence? – New York Times

Richard Fontaine and Mira Rapp-Hooper write: Eventual Chinese leadership would not be akin to America assuming Britain’s former role after World War II. Instead it would lead to a world likely less prosperous and certainly less free. At the end of the Obama era and the dawn of the Trump administration, U.S. staying power is in question, and China has begun to sketch out one alternative future of global leadership. Most of the rest of the world, and Americans themselves, would do better to stick with the American version. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Derek Scissors writes: While official GDP growth slowed, in perfectly orderly fashion, China’s macroeconomic performance is in fact generally stronger than a year ago. But the country is very far from being rich, and already massively overleveraged. – AEI Ideas

Russia has agreed to allow its defense companies to forge direct ties with Indian defense companies — both public and private sector — to supply, service and jointly manufacture spares for use by Indian defense forces. – Defense NewsEditorial: As Donald Trump begins his Presidency, leaders in India face the question of whether to sign two long-delayed agreements to facilitate closer security cooperation with Washington. In New Delhi last week U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Harry Harris offered a useful illustration of why the deals matter. Without them, he noted, India and the U.S. won’t be able to share vital information about China’s intensifying submarine presence in the Indian Ocean. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Is North Korea Preparing a Missile Test?From John Schilling, 38 North: “On January 19, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that North Korea had placed two missiles on mobile launchers in preparation for possible testing in the early days of the Trump administration. Details are still scarce, and it should be noted that North Korea has in the past prepared missiles for launch without conducting any test. As we recently noted, missile “tests” are often political demonstrations, and often what is being demonstrated includes an element of restraint. And, of course, if launch preparations indicate technical problems likely to lead to failure, the nature of the demonstration will likely be changed to accommodate the technical reality. Still, it is possible that North Korea could conduct a missile test in the next few days.” Possible North Korean ICBM Test Launch SiteFrom Joseph S. Bermudez Jr,. 38 North: "One of the possible locations for an ICBM test is the Kalma Ballistic Missile Test Site located on the shores of the East Sea adjacent to the Kalma International Airport. Opened around May-June 2016, the test site consists of a single 24-meter-by-17-meter concrete-paved launch position surrounded by a sand berm, grading for a second firing position and graded access roads. It is supported by several components of the Kalma International Airport including a pull-through hangar for pre-launch preparations, two observation and support buildings and a paved parking lot. It is probable that the airport’s radars are used to support ballistic missile tests by both tracking missile flights and ensuring that the East Sea airspace is clear of traffic.