Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Sometimes you are what your record says you are, and sometimes you're not. In this case, neither team really is.

The Falcons are better than 2-4 and the Cardinals are worse than 3-4. Arizona does have a pretty good defense, but they're 26th in the league rushing the ball, and Carson Palmer appears to be a failed experiment. Larry Fitzgerald has not put up the kind of numbers he was expected to at the start of the year.

Last year, the Falcons were massively overrated. This year, they are underrated. Atlanta will win this game outright, so I'd take this game +120 on the ML, but definitely take the points here. Full five-unit wager, as this is my favorite bet of the week.

New York Giants +6 (at Philadelphia Eagles)

The Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Nobody had this team starting 0-6. Still, the Giants got their first win under their belt this past Monday night, and I think they have some momentum to build on.

The Eagles are injury-plagued, and are coming off a bad home loss to Dallas. While Michael Vick is getting the start, Matt Barkley is just a hit away from getting in the game. It's pretty clear Vick is not yet 100 percent, so either way, Philly is looking at a difficult QB situation.

I think this is another pretty good ML bet on the Giants at 2-1, but I certainly like this game to be much closer than the last game these two played. Six points is way too much. This is another 5-unit bet.

The public still loves betting the Pats, so I'm going to keep taking the value against them. They were as high as 5-point favorites at New York last week. The public sees them getting Rob Gronkowski back and reacts.

But if you look deeper at the injuries the Pats have had (Vince Wilfork, Aqib Talib, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola among others), it becomes more clear that the Patriots won't be able to sustain the win rate. Even if you disagree and think they can, they're not going to be winning big enough in these games to cover the kind of spreads they're giving. Of the Pats five wins, only one was by more than a touchdown, against the lowly Bucs, and three of them were by three points or less.

The Dolphins did not look very good against Buffalo, but it doesn't justify being a seven-point 'dog to an injury-ridden division rival. The Patriots have a chance to get people back and put all of the pieces together by year end, but until then, enjoy the inflated spreads they've been getting. They're currently 3-4 ATS, although if they had come up short against New Orleans like they should have, they would be 2-5. Either way, you're a winner on the season taking the points against them.

Until the lines start reflecting the actual product we're seeing as opposed to the name on the jersey, I'll probably continue to take the value against them. Another five-unit bet here.