So he fluctuated between 45-55 homeruns and in the range of 10 RBIs from 2001-2003. And that's a significant drop? I know he had a down year last year. But if he gets off to a normal start, he'll get up around the numbers I wrote him down for. He's not going to match the Texas numbers but that's only because he's not playing in Texas.

Well, his average has dropped each year, and his home runs since 02, and his RBIs since 02 also. His slugging and OPS have declined every year since 02, and that was in Texas. I would think that counts as decreasing numbers.

Thanks, he didn't show his OPS and SLG %s in that chart and what he did show us were numbers that decreased.

BTW yankee fan, Vlad has limped since the mid part of last season, I wouldn't be too worried, he won an MVP with a limp.

I don't think it's fair to say his HRs and RBI dropped significantly after 2002. That was his career year. Do you expect him to improve upon 57-142? Obviously they are going to go down. He still hit around 50 and knocked in around 125 in 2003.

Until I see A-Rod go 36-112 again, I'm calling that a down year. Especially considering it was his first year in NY. I don't know what to make of the average, but considering he still hit .286 last year, his normal avg should be up around .295-.298 IMO.

Those are good numbers but not top 5. Extrapolating the HR of the road splits to 160 games gives you 52,46,42(you can see the decline). It wouldn't surprise me if he hit 40 HR I just don't expect him to hit over .290. I also see his steals coming down a bit, I have him pegged at 20 steals....here are my full projections....
.285 AVG 38 HR 118Runs 110 RBI 20SB
Combine that with him not playing SS anymore and he's out of my top 5.

Phatferd wrote:Also, why take AROD over a Beltran or Abreu? They have very similar numbers but Beltran and Abreu have about twice as many SB.

Beltran is a possibility, but Abreu has never hit over 30 homeruns. He's never driven in even close to the number of runs A-Rod has and will. They'll bat about the same avg, slight advantage to Abreu. A-Rod will score more runs.

A-Rod will still steal 20 bases, it's not like he's just some bulky guy who won't steal any.

How is it that AROD is so much better than Abreu? I think Abreu has more value than AROD, plus the 15-20 SB difference is HUGE, SB are very valuable.

You're comparing 1 year. Off the top of my head, I'm positive that's Abreu's best year ever. There's no saying he'll repeat those numbers, the previous years he hit somewhere around 20 homeruns, not 30. A-Rod's previous years, he hit around 45 homeruns, not 35. Comparing one year is not fair.