Posted by bhazlewood on 4/17/2011 10:12:00 PM (view original):You have to take into account that the Year 1 numbers are inflated by free seasons. A better assessment would be pre-update to current, which is a net drop of 233 teams (including the teams now into season 5). Considering the amount of free seasons and season credits given out, that's a telling number.

10 of the 11 worlds dropped by at least 15 coaches from year 3 to 4, and all 6 reporting worlds have dropped at least another 13 in year 5. At what point does this hit their wallets by losing paying customers instead of free players? And at what point do paying customers grow tired of playing 80% SIMs and stop paying?

10 of the 11 worlds dropped by at least 15 coaches from year 3 to 4, and all 6 reporting worlds have dropped at least another 13 in year 5. At what point does this hit their wallets by losing paying customers instead of free players? And at what point do paying customers grow tired of playing 80% SIMs and stop paying?

with all the goodbyes in the forum, the overall drop in teams is less than 10%. Although it is still significant, it doesn't necessarily spell the end of GD as some have predicted. Mind you, GD worlds weren't all that populated to start with, so it is nonetheless a bad situation.

having said that, I don't think WIS will feel any noticeable hit to its bottom line for a while. People don't realize how many coaches were playing for free pre-update. If you averaged a level 4 bowl appearance, you were playing for free if you bought seasons 5 at a time.

What is bad is all the worlds filled with sims. That makes it boring. I don't think the reward points for long term veteran coaches have run out yet. My guess is that it will take another 4-6 months.

the way it stands now, the only way to increase the population is to recruit new blood. GD can be saved only through that method. I believe the engine will more or less stand as is, with perhaps some minor tweak going forward. So all the veteran coaches who are unhappy will remain so. Fee free to disagree, but I don't buy the argument that the new blood will become dissatisfied with the engine once they gain experience in the same way a veteran coach is dissatisfied about the game. With all the valid complaints about the new engine, there were arguably as much crap about the old engine (there is plenty of room for debate here).

I don't think new owners will be automatically dissatisfied with the engine - but they may dislike a game where 80% of their opponents are SIMs every year, and they may, once they become accomplished recruiters with really talented teams, become disenchanted with 20 point losses to inferior teams that they can't understand, and they may dislike earning a quarter season worth of rewards from a quarterfinals appearance in a 3/4 empty world. Those are the risks that I believe WIS may be underestimating.