第3章 キャリアー状況報告

第4章 市場予測

第5章 結び

目次

Product Code: Vol. 14, No. 7

While bandwidth demand continues to escalate and carriers upgrade their
networks accordingly for 100Gbit/s transmission, UHB (100G and 40G) Ethernet
services sold by carriers are still a relatively modest presence, their
adoption slowed primarily by continued high equipment (most notably, router)
prices. The resulting high 100GE:10GE "cost ratio" keeps potential buyers
using relatively attractively priced multiple 10GE circuits rather than
migrating to the higher bandwidth level.

Standards for new UHB technologies were ratified by an IEEE working group in
2010. The IETF task force that created the standards designed 40GE primarily
for within the data center, which remains where this intermediate speed is
most commonly seen. 100GE will clearly be the primary UHB speed into the
future, though there remains significant demand for 40GE among regional
enterprise buyers.

100GE services are taking time to become the major and widely adopted market
presence they will surely be. Despite radical bandwidth demand increases from
video, the Internet, mobility, the cloud and more, this new generation of UHB
services has only emerged modestly so far, slowed by high equipment prices and
resulting unattractive "cost ratios" that largely keep enterprise and, to some
extent, wholesale and Web 2.0 customers sticking with current multiple 10GE
circuits. UHB (100GE and 40GE) services have grown since last year's report,
though significantly less rapidly so far than anticipated. While there are
still relatively few customers, there is a substantial pick-up of adoption
under way in 2014.

While well-established 10GE offers a cost ratio of some 2.5:1 vs. its smaller
cousin 1GE with a tenth as much bandwidth, 100GE may typically offer a 6-7:1
ratio on a pure service pricing basis for 10 times the bandwidth, while
required equipment, particularly routers, makes ratios even higher,
discouraging adoption, especially considering the additional costs of changing
out technologies.

UHB Ethernet remains a predominantly long-haul, inter-city service,
particularly among dominant wholesale, social media, content distribution and
other Web 2.0 customers. More traditional retail enterprise customers, by
contrast, account for most of the demand for 40GE and most of it is in- metro,
where economics are less attractive overall. While the UHB market has been
largely carrier wholesale, Web 2.0 players have become increasingly
significant as buyers as have large financial and media enterprises.

100GE equipment prices will decline gradually at unpredictable points over the
next two to three years, based on aforementioned competitive market forces. As
they fall substantially over time, supporting wider adoption, we project U.S.
100GE revenues will reach $150 million annually in 2016 and $275 million in
2017, though 10GE will remain the dominant mainstream high-bandwidth level for
enterprises for at least several years into the future.

40/100G Ethernet Service Update: Slow but Steady Progress reviews how both
U.S.-based and some non-U.S.-based international carriers are addressing UHB
Ethernet services. It explores significant issues affecting adoption of 100GE
and 40GE services, including equipment and service cost ratios in relation to
long-established 10GE service. It also explores the relationship between the
100 and 40 bandwidth levels, the nature of the adopter population and other
market drivers and obstacles. Finally, the report includes status reports on
how various carriers are deploying and selling services and a market forecast
of U.S.-based UHB services.

Sample research data from the report is shown in the excerpts below:

While 40GE is slightly longer established than 100G, the greater excitement
and market interest is clearly going to the 100G space, though there are at
least temporary niches of interest in 40GE, especially among retail enterprise
customers regionally and within metro areas. But 40GE is likely to remain a
niche. 40GE technology is commonly used within data centers, for which it was
originally designed, but not in such cases usually requiring carrier services.
The excerpt below summarizes the status of carrier UHB offerings.