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Friday, February 1, 2013

Analysis: Israel's airstrike likely to complicate Syria crisis

By Ayman Mohyeldin, Correspondent, NBC News

News analysis
There may have been confusion about the target of the attack, but there is no doubt who was behind a deadly airstrike in Syria early on Wednesday.
The
Syrian government said Israeli fighter jets struck a research facility
northwest of the capital Damascus, killing two people.
The Pentagon said Israeli war planes struck a convoy that was transporting weapons to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Israeli
forces conducted an airstrike on a convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border
Wednesday. NBC's Richard Engel joins Brian Williams with his analysis.

Either way, the action and its consequences could widen and complicate the ongoing Syrian conflict on multiple fronts.
It also raises questions about Israel's vulnerabilities: What was so
important of a target that compelled Israel to act? And what was Israel
afraid would fall into the hands of Hezbollah?
In recent days,
Iran's ambassador to Syria and a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader
both reiterated that an attack on Syria would constitute an attack on
Iran. The comment was originally intended to dissuade western countries,
specifically NATO, from taking any kind of action against Syria by
force like they did in Libya.
Officials in Tehran referred to
Syria as part of the 'axis of resistance' to Israeli and Western
aggression across the region. If Iran's words are to be taken seriously,
the recent Israeli attack on Syria would be a triggering mechanism for
an Iranian response.
Both Iran and Syria, according to the Associated Press, have said they will respond. How, and when, is unclear.
It
is unlikely the embattled Syrian regime -- and by extension its
beleaguered military -- could undertake a full-blown confrontation with
Israel.
Instead, Syria may rely on its allies across the region,
including Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Iran and Hamas in Gaza.
However, those allies may calculate that there is not much to gain from
acting on behalf of the Syrian regime.
Hamas is an offshoot of the
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, whose Syrian branch is engaged in the
revolt against the Assad regime. It is unlikely Hamas will undertake any
attack on Israel for the sake of a regime with which it is increasingly
at ideological odds.
Hamas has even closed its Damascus
headquarters since the uprising there began, focusing instead on its own
struggle with Israel. More importantly, any unilateral action by Hamas
would anger Cairo's domestically embattled Islamist government which has
worked to maintain a fragile calm between Israel and Hamas.
Hezbollah
is much more willing to defend the Syrian regime. Hezbollah has come to
the tactical and moral defense of the Assad regime in the past two
years.

Police
detonate a rocket-propelled grenade that struck a house in Turkey
believed to have come from across the border in Syria. NBCNews.com's
Dara Brown reports.

However in the past, Hezbollah has also
explicitly stated its weapons are for the defense of Lebanon only. It
has repeatedly stated that Hezbollah does not fight for anything except
the right to resist Israel's occupation of Arab lands. More importantly,
there would be substantial backlash against Hezbollah within Lebanon if
the entire state was dragged into a costly war with Israel.
The
third possible actor in this drama is Iran. With all of the pressure it
faces over its nuclear program in the international arena, Iran is
unlikely to take any overt action to retaliate for the Israeli airstrike
on its ally, Syria. However, to complicate matters, Iran my ramp up its
support for the Assad regime by providing financial and military
assistance.
Instead, Hezbollah and Iran may opt for covert
operations across the globe. Recent attacks on Israeli interests in
Bulgaria and India -- allegedly linked to Iran and its proxies -- have
raised the stakes for direct action by Israel.
Many players in the region are dismayed by Israel’s airstrike. Even
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which has previously supported the rebels,
has condemned the airstrike.
The Syria regime has begun to exploit
this by painting Israel’s airstrike as evidence of an alliance between
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar to protect Western hegemony across the
region. The fact that those countries are providing money -- and,
reportedly, weapons -- to rebels in Syria at the same time as Assad’s
regime is being attacked by Israel is only reinforcing a perception
there that Syria is the target of an international conspiracy.
That may slow down the public appetite for Assad's overthrow. It may also prove to be costliest consequence of Israel's attack.Related:Israeli attack in Syria could trigger Iran reactionBiden to meet abroad with key figures in Syrian conflict