Will the Green New Deal work? Ask California

The natural gas-fired Scattergood Generating Station operates on Feb. 12 in El Segundo (Los Angeles County), one of the communities most affected by pollution in California, according to state data. Los Angeles announced it will abandon plans to renovate three natural gas power plants, including Scattergood, as part of the state’s push toward renewable energy. California lawmakers passed a bill last year requiring the state to obtain 100 percent of its electricity from clean sources by 2045.

Photo: Mario Tama / Getty Images

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., have outlined their estimated $93 trillion plan for a Green New Deal. It aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in only a decade by transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Despite its name, the Green New Deal isn’t much of a “deal” at all. Here in California, aspects of the Green New Deal have substantially slowed housing construction, robbing California’s lower- and middle-class families of the wealth accumulation they might achieve through homeownership and forcing many state residents to live farther from work while simultaneously increasing the price they pay for gas and increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

If you are wondering why California boasts the highest poverty rate (when housing costs are factored in) in the country, look no further than our state’s own Green New Deal.

According to data compiled by the California Center for Jobs and the Economy, a 501(c)3 public benefit corporation, the average annual electricity bills for California residents have risen since 2010, when the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 was fully implemented, while electricity costs in Texas have gone down. While costs are up, we haven’t seen the types of job growth promised by the deal’s proponents. In fact, most “green jobs” are the result of simply reclassifying existing jobs, such as a bus driver who now drives a bus powered by natural gas.

This makes it especially ironic that state regulators are doing their best to take natural-gas power plants offline across the state. Last year, state leaders committed California to a 60 percent renewable energy target by 2030 — and zero emissions by 2045. What do they think will happen to energy prices?

This shift toward renewable energy is coming at a time when many are already struggling to make ends meet.

We must have an affordable and reliable energy supply. Keeping California’s lights on requires a grid that can ramp up electricity generation to quickly supply energy to those who need it. Without multiple energy sources that are up to these challenges, power blackouts and shortages are inevitable.

That is why a diversified energy portfolio, including natural gas, is so important to the state’s energy future. Natural gas generates electricity that can be dispatched quickly by plant operators. It is also in abundant supply, thanks to an energy boom that’s made America the world’s top natural-gas producer.

The same can’t be said about renewable energy sources such as wind and solar — as both rely on natural elements that are impossible to predict.

To see how this uncertainty can cause real problems, consider last summer’s heat wave. On July 6, energy demand peaked from about 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. at 45,000 megawatts, according to a Manhattan Institute scholar.

However, wind-energy production had peaked at around midnight and solar was at its highest around 1:25 p.m. By 10 p.m., when electricity demand was still abnormally high at 40,000 megawatts, solar production and wind generation stood at zero and 2,700 megawatts, respectively.

This is why many Californians are now subject to time-of-use rates, paying more for electricity during peak hours, when solar and wind production is decreased or nonexistent. Just as most working families are stepping in the door to cook meals and cooling their homes during the summer, they will be paying more for electricity. As California officials continue to push for more gas-fired plant closures, which used to provide power during these spikes in demand, costs will continue to increase for working Californians across the state.

And while costs are going up, reliability is going down. Between 2017 and 2018, California’s natural-gas power-generation capacity decreased. This dropoff put the state and our economy at “increased risk” of power shortages, according to California’s grid operator.

Of course, proponents of California’s move toward renewable energy maintain that batteries are the key to making wind and solar more reliable. But the mass energy-storage technologies they have in mind simply don’t exist. And the most promising solutions along these lines are still cost-prohibitive.

Here’s a better idea: provide residents with the lowest-cost choices for power they need to keep their homes livable and their costs affordable.

Don’t make California’s poverty crisis a national crisis. Stop talking about the unrealistic Green New Deal and let’s start talking about a realistic energy future that harnesses everything we have — sun, wind and fuels like natural gas — to provide the most reliable and lowest-cost energy for not just California, but the entire nation.

Robert C. Lapsley is president of the California Business Roundtable, a non-partisan organization comprised of the senior executive leadership of the major employers throughout the state — with a combined workforce of more than half a million employees.