Thompson In Iowa

Kidding aside, Thompson’s decision to relocate full-time to Iowa and (one imagines) do nothing other than campaign until the caucuses is an interesting move. It will make anything less than a third place finish appear to be a serious setback, but he could take advantage of Romney’s weakening position. (Needless to say, a third place finish by Romney and he’s pretty much done; the Dean comparisons will not only be easy, but also apt.) If Giuliani’s campaign-by-stealth (via mail) or a surprise showing by Ron Paul somehow surpasses him, I don’t see how he will justify continuing this charade. Nonetheless, he has genuinely impressed many people with his policy acumen, so he could become a very credible selection for VP. How about Huckabee-Thompson? Too Southern? He could play Cheney to Huckabee’s Bush–isn’t that a pleasant thought?

It’s unlikely that two bitter rivals would be on the same ticket, but it has happened before. It would be quite a come-down from the acclamations of Fred Sotir Euergetos that were being shouted out to him a few months ago. It would be rather humiliating to have to be considered for Huckabee’s vice president, since the preacher had been considered as no more than veep-worthy just a month or so ago. With Fred sinking in polls just about everywhere and the huckster rising, the argument that Huckabee is filling the space that Fred was supposed to fill and didn’t makes a good deal of sense. Second billing may be the best he can expect now.

P.S. Via Dave Weigel, hereisascintillatingexcruciatingly dull Thompson town hall meeting in Orange City, Iowa. Consider one of Thompson’s “jokes” about the Democratic candidates: “It’s like they’re all in training for the NASCAR, you know, nothing but a left turn.” That has to be the first time I’ve ever heard a Southerner, or anyone, liken liberalism to NASCAR. Let us hope that it will be the last.

You have to enjoy the moment during the third part of the town hall when one of Thompson’s supporters is holding a campaign sign upside-down. I think it must have been a distress call.

This is the right move, I’m just afraid that it’s three weeks too late. If he can get his lazy ass off the couch enough to force his way into people’s consideration, he has a perfectly legit shot to win the nom.

Frankly (in crontrast to Mitt or Rudy), I can’t see what good purpose he serves at the bottom of the ticket.

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

You’re right that it’s probably too late. I did think that he had a good chance to win the nomination (I even picked him to win at one point–not my best prediction of the last few years), and his flawed rivals still make it seem remotely plausible, but he has already missed his opportunity. My thinking about having him as the VP nominee, especially as Huckabee’s VP, is that he provides the national security & foreign policy experience and policy ideas that Huckabee seems to be lacking. McCain might fill the same role, but is too old and has too many of the same liabilities that Huckabee does.

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

First of all, I don’t think that Huckabee can get the nomination, no matter where he is in the polls at the moment, and even if he wins Iowa. To that extent, I’m supposing that the bottom end of the Huckabee ticket is irrelevant. As far as I’m concerned, the GOP has so many problems at the top of the ticket that I don’t care who’s on the bottom.

Huck’s surge is scrambling everything in the race. If Huck does win Iowa, I don’t think he’ll win New Hampshire, and I don’t think Rudy will either. If Rudy doesn’t falter in the polls after Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s only room for one more legit candidate in the race. Ie, whoever wins among Fred, Mitt, McCain (or Ron Paul) is still in. Everyone else can go home.

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

I kind of figured him setting up shop in Iowa was a way to win New Hampshire. Quite seriously, and I think you hit on it before, is that people like Thompson more for what they think he believes than what he actually does believe. Listening to his supporters originally was worse than listening to a group of people debating who Reagan was. In both cases the advocates imparted whatever qualities they wanted upon the man. The guy was toast right when he enterred the race.

As far as a #2 pick, I think Gingrich is positioning himself. At this point, my thinking is starting to move beyond Iowa. Huckabee is putting up numbers in South Carolina that are downright intimidating. It looks like a three way race between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani. I don’t think that hurts Huckabee. In regards to actual electoral politics, I would start the Dems plus 40 electoral points.

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

Deprecated: Function ereg() is deprecated in /home/larison/public_html/wp-content/themes/tarski/comments.php on line 66

Recent Articles

I’m back from Washington, and I have an announcement for readers of the blog: Eunomia will be shifting over to The American Conservative’s site here. This will be the last post at this site (the redirect will be set up soon), and all future Eunomia blogging will be at TAC.

Romney lost statewide, as we already knew, but more remarkable is the number of districts he has lost. He lost many of them by thin margins, but that is not much consolation. It appears that he has lost almost all, except the 21st, 49th and 52nd (which he has won) and possibly the 42nd, which is very […]

By Republican strategist Alex Vogel’s calculation, Mitt Romney is giving Gramm a run for his money. The former Massachusetts governor has spent $1.16 million per delegate, a rate that would cost him $1.33 billion to win the nomination.
By contrast, Mike Huckabee’s campaign has been the height of efficiency. Delegates haven’t yet been officially apportioned, but […]

It seems to me that this is hard to discern from exit polls. First, the exit polls aren’t measuring why people voted one way or another, but which candidate they supported and which demographic groups they belong to, so the only thing we can know with any certainty is the level of support, or lack of […]

As of 11:00 Central today, Romney has won just three primaries all year and all of them are effectively his “home turf.” All of his other wins have been caucuses, many of them not strongly contested by his rivals.
P.S. It’s hard to gauge the outcome from county results, but so far every county that has reported shows a […]