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2 How are climate forecasts made? NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Official U.S. climate forecasting agency 4-5 primary forecasters, but they get input from ~20 people before deciding on a final forecast Long-range forecasters at work in 1946 Major Forecasting Tools Long-term trends Comparison with past situations Computer simulations Findings from recent research Human expertise CPC climate forecasts are created by combining results from several scientific techniques, using expert judgement to decide which should be given more or less importance.

3 NWS Seasonal Climate Outlooks Issued monthly Lead Times: months Probabilistic: Probabilistic: Predict the probability of conditions being among the warmest/coldest or wettest/driest terciles of years in

4 Press Interpretations are Often Wrong!

5 Press Interpretations are Often Wrong!

6 What do the Climate Outlooks Mean? Issued monthly Lead Times: months Probabilistic: Probabilistic: Predict the probability of conditions being among the warmest/coldest or wettest/driest terciles of years in

7 What do the Climate Outlooks Mean? The outlooks indicate probability of being in three specific categories. Legend Cold Norm Warm Climatology The categories are defined by having equal chances, historically.

8 What do the Climate Outlooks Mean? Legend Cold Norm Warm It does not just indicate above or below normal! 50% 50% Climatology

12 Wet, Dry, Normal Compared to What?.4,3,7. %49,! ,9 43.4,3,7. %49,!70. 5! , Wet Near- Dry Normal 0,7 Normal chances are based only on 30 years of data..00/,3.0!74-,- 9 66% The data are ranked and divided into three categories of equal probability, with roughly 10 years in each category.

13 Wet, Dry, Normal Compared to What?.4,3,7. %49,! ,9 43.4,3,7. %49,!70. 5! , Wet Near- Dry Normal 0,7 3.7 Wet Norm Dry /,3.0!74-, years had more than 3.7 inches 10 years had less than 1.9 inches 10 years were in the middle 1.9

16 How Good Are the Confidence Statements? Official Winter Climate Forecasts in West US( ) Precipitation Temperature Reliability Frequency of Obs Wet Dry Warm Cold Frequency Histogram (log scale) Strength of Forecast Message: increased chances of wet and warm conditions could have been even stronger. Forecasters were better than they thought!

What does the 2015-16 El Niño have in store for the Upper Colorado Basin? Klaus Wolter NOAA-Earth System Research Lab & University of Colorado at Boulder-CIRES klaus.wolter@noaa.gov El Niño: Current situation

Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015 Water Year Precip. % of Average

The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center

Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks Douglas Le Comte, CPC Douglas.lecomte@noaa.gov Outline Review of how the current Drought Outlooks are made Sample experimental products

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.

Fire Season Prediction for Canada, 2014 Kerry Anderson Canadian Forest Service 1 Introduction The Canadian Forest Service is now presenting monthly and seasonal forecast maps through the Canadian Wildland

What s the value of rain forecasts for dryland cotton? Preliminary Rebecca Darbyshire rebecca.darbyshire@dpi.nsw.gov.au What do you think is your major decision that a seasonal climate forecast would be

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme

Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at

The Climate of Payne County Payne County is part of the Central Great Plains in the west, encompassing some of the best agricultural land in Oklahoma. Payne County is also part of the Crosstimbers in the

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start

Evaluating Forecast Quality Simon J. Mason International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Questions How do we decide whether a forecast was correct? How do we decide whether a set of forecasts

The Climate of Kiowa County Kiowa County is part of the Central Great Plains, encompassing some of the best agricultural land in Oklahoma. Average annual precipitation ranges from about 24 inches in northwestern

Winter 2014-15 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Combination of weak/moderate El Nino/+PDO/-QBO and well above average snow cover and snow cover increase this Fall in Siberia point to a winter

Drought Monitoring in Mainland Portugal 1. Accumulated precipitation since 1st October 2014 (Hydrological Year) The accumulated precipitation amount since 1 October 2014 until the end of April 2015 (Figure

Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University June 6, 2016 May 2016 continued the warm trend for portions of the west, while providing some relief for

El Nino 2015: The Story So Far and What To Expect Next The El Nino Event of 2015-2016 The 2015/16 El Nino Event Officially declared in March 2015 Now approaching peak intensity Expected to last through

An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook

Operational hydrometeorological forecasting activities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thomas Pagano At the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer. http://scottbridle.com/

The Climate of Seminole County Seminole County is part of the Crosstimbers. This region is a transition region from the Central Great Plains to the more irregular terrain of southeastern Oklahoma. Average

Regents Earth Science Unit 7: Water Cycle and Climate Name Section Coastal and Continental Temperature Ranges Lab # Introduction: There are large variations in average monthly temperatures among cities

Verification Of January HDD Forecasts W2020 / Average HDD stands for Heating Degree Day. A Heating Degree Day is zero if the average temperature is 65 degrees. An HDD of -30 would mean an average temperature

KANSAS CLIMATE SUMMARY March 2018 Another Dry Month The Southwest Division again missed out on most of the precipitation during March. State-wide the average precipitation was 0.97 inches or 41 percent

ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the

Global Climates Name Date No investigation of the atmosphere is complete without examining the global distribution of the major atmospheric elements and the impact that humans have on weather and climate.

Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 5, 2016 The month of July saw the continued flip, flop of the western US temperatures. It was warm

Drought History for the Northern Mountains of New Mexico Prepared by the South Central Climate Science Center in Norman, Oklahoma May 28, 2013 southcentralclimate.org info@southcentralclimate.org (This

Denver International Airport MDSS Demonstration Verification Report for the 2015-2016 Season Prepared by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Division (RAL) Seth Linden

MiSP Astronomy - Seasons Worksheet #1 L2 Name Date Changing Hours of Daylight on Long Island (L 1, 2, 3) Introduction You sometimes hear people say, Days are longer in the summer and shorter in the winter.

European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013 Vienna, Austria, 7 12 April 2013 Session HS7.5/NP8.4: Hydroclimatic Stochastics The role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) events: The case of

January 4, 2018 South Dakota Wildfire Potential Outlook - January 2018 - Happy New Year! The Legion Lake fire in and southeast of Custer State Park was the big headline of December 2017. Climate and weather

CLIMATE OVERVIEW The climate in the Thunder Bay area is typical of a mid-latitude inland location with a Great Lake Moderating influence. The moderating effect of Lake Superior results in cooler summer

North Carolina Climate January 2012 Online: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/office/newsletters North Carolina Climate, the monthly newsletter of the State Climate Office of NC, covers information on experimental

5.0 WHAT IS THE FUTURE (2040-2049) WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE? This chapter presents some illustrative results for one station, Pearson Airport, extracted from the hour-by-hour simulations of the future period