But till January, it touched 3.75 per cent of GDP, estimated for the entire financial year.

Now, economists peg fiscal deficit in the range of 5.5 to 5.8 per cent of GDP.

Govinda Rao, fiscal expert and a member of the prime minister's economic advisory council, said he was not surprised as it was known fiscal deficit would exceed the target.

"Rather it could increase by one percentage point of the target, which is not a good sign at all," Rao said.

A lower real GDP growth might not give relief to fiscal deficit numbers in terms of statistical calculation, since a nominal GDP would not be less than estimated at the time of the Budget, with inflation above the nine per cent mark till November.

However, a lower growth in real GDP did affect fiscal deficit, as it dented direct tax collections.

Officials from the Central Board of Direct Taxes said direct tax collections might fall short of BE by Rs 15,000-20,000 crore (Rs 150-200 billion).

However, indirect tax collections are going as scheduled.

The government's net tax revenues stood at Rs 4.58 lakh crore (Rs 4.58 trillion) at the end of January, 69 per cent of BE of Rs 6.64 lakh crore (Rs 6.64 trillion), against 80 per cent in the corresponding period of last financial year.

The government received a blow from non-tax revenues, as it didn't get spectacular proceeds from spectrum sale as was received in 2010-11. Non-tax revenues stood at Rs 90,566 crore (Rs 905.66 billion), 72.2 per cent of BE of Rs 1.25 lakh crore (Rs 1.25 trillion) for the entire financial year, compared to 136.6 per cent till January 2010.

Disinvestment fetched the government Rs 1,100 crore (Rs 11 billion) from Power Finance Corporation, against BE of Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion).

All eyes are now on the ONGC disinvestment, which can fetch the government over Rs 12,000 crore (Rs 120 billion).

Despite all disturbing headline fiscal deficit numbers, the government was able to rein in expenditure as scheduled.

In 2010-11, the government was also able to prune expenditure as per BE.

The government's expenditure during April to January was at Rs 10.02 lakh crore, 79.7 per cent of BE of Rs 12.58 lakh crore (Rs 12.58 trillion) for 2011-12. In the corresponding period in 2010-11, expenditure stood at the same level.