My favorite sage once told me "better look out" else you won't "see" :-) This is a wanderer's wanderlust !!, an attempt to navigate through the omnipresent urban blindness, albeit without any kind compass, and yet, inadvertently and magically, stumble upon the ever elusive truth.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Fixing or otherwise, the match between Australia and SA where AU scored 377 and expected SA to chase was a dream to watch.

Just the fact that Adam Gilchrist, Mat Hayden, Ricky Ponting - all looks so fit and mean - almost like they could run the 42k marathon - and the way both sides batted and fielded- this is the stuff world champions are made of.

I am happy for either side to win the world cup - the reason - they both inspire me - they both delight me by taking a sport to a level where only 'winning' matters - this is what sport was always supposed to be.

They taste great, feel healthy, have fibre, and are not expensive. I hope they click in the market, otherwise like a whole host of erstwhile good biscuits, they will be shelved in favor of the Tigers and the ParleGs of the world. (Britania's Ginger Nut was one such examplem - I loved those biscuits)

On Friday evening, everyone I spoke to was sure that the match between India and Sri Lanka was fixed and that 'we' Indians shall win it. Everyone said that almost 1500cr is at stake, someone will grease, and someone will be greased just enough, to make sure the machinery turns in our favor.

Some folks went so far to say, that if India lose, they would be delighted, because that would conclusively prove that betting does not exist.

My contrarian point was (and is):1. Betting is a business of 'views'. The bookie makes money when most people ideally bet in favor of a view which as far as possible from what really happens (e.g. If everyone was already hoping(and hence betting) for a India win (whether because of fixing or otherwise), the bookie would ideally make money, if India lost miserably to SL and thats what happened - and the paradoxically the bookie would ideally like to 'fix' the match in this favor, rather the previously assumed position).

2. Betting is a much bigger business than ads and sponsorship - and sadly in my opinion the mafia has its fingers in both pies - the 'legal' media bit and the betting bit. The single large shareholder (the mafia) would not mind losing on one front(media) , if he got adeuquetely compensated on the other (betting). [ For the record, TOI on 25th March 2007, reported that punters and bookies raked in about 1200cr after India's defeat....get my drift?]

So in my opinion, we should have expected India to lose to SL (if betting does decide matches) - just as we should have expected India to lose to bangladesh.

My prediction 1:I was with a few friends out on the countryside on the day of the India vs. BAN match - early in the morning (the match was in the evening)- I said rationally (based on my betting theory) that India will lose. I should have blogged it to make myself an acclaimed soothsayer.

My prediction 2:Using my same theory, that a bookie makes money only if we all bet in the direction which will not happen - and that once he knows which side the bet is going - he can use the powers-that-be to fix it onto the 'other' side - what can we predict?

No one expects Bermuda to beat Ban? Our odds of making it to the semifinal have fallen out - people have bought out their older bets - by paying 'escape' money - that is they have sold their 'position' (bets), just like you do in a stock market - so for example someone who betted on India going to semi-final, bet Rs.100 on it, has now sold the 'bet' to someone else at Rs.10, because at least he hopes to redeem Rs.10 out of what appears a dead deal. Must remember, the event itself is not yet completely decided, its up for grabs.

Now you get the drift.....in stock market terms, we are all currently 'oversold' on India not making it to the final.

So whats my prediction? If the matches are indeed fixed and if my theory is right, Bermuda will; easily defeat BAN today and India make it back to the super8.

I am not a bookie or a bettor, but yes I understand probablity theory well, I understand how the stock market works, and can extrapolate it to the bookie world - and yes, I love taking contrarian picks. If I was a bettor, would put all my dough on Bermuda winning and hopefully make a killing. And if I was a fixer, I would fix the match all the way upto the fact that India does not make it to the super8.

The start of the match is still 4 hours away, if Bermuda does win, you know who told you about it first.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

I have 3 watches, a swatch automatic, a casio pathfinder and an Espirit Chrono. Of these the later two are powered by batteries. For some legacy reason both of these powered watches used to keep time 7 minutes ahead of the 'correct' time, until the weekend of 12th March.

On Friday, before the weekend, at office I suddenly realise that my Espirit was now showing the correct time. On that day, I safely assume its the battery going weak in a 5 year old watch.

On Monday, I pick up the casio to wear to work and its showing the correct time as well.

At this point I slightly freaked, I ask my wife, my parents, my friends, colleagues - every single person who could have access to my watches - did they do this, and they all said 'no' - as in a matter of fact 'no'.

Some even suggested that I did it subconsciously. Others that probably both batteries went weak at the same time. (Forget the fact that the casio one is a digital one, so even if it goes weak, all it should do is go dimmer and not miss time)

Its two weeks since then, no real explaination found - I am a rationalist would like to believe that someone human actually turned back the clocks (maybe as a prank on me).

On the same lines, I am very inclined to also move back both my clocks 7 minutes ahead to challenge the being (human or otherwise) again.

I have been on and off excercise since the age of 18. Hence I am a dichotomy, I am quite healthy in some areas - like broad shoulders, strong biceps....but overall a weak heart, a very fucked up inside and blood gone awry.

Since Aug of last year when I weighed 105kgs, I have been quite regular with some excercise (for me regular is 20 days in a month).

Last month, my treadmill conked off...for a few days I waited, hoped to repair it....then out of sheer desperation and fear (of bad health)....I woke up one morning (5th Feb to be precise) @ 5.30am and started jogging (actually I jog just a shade faster than I walk).

From that day on, I have started running (or fast walking :-)).....have missed 7 days since then....its almost 21 days of that regime....and by some weird thumb-rule....anything you do for 21 days becomes a 'habit'.

After a month, all I have achieved is running 1.7 kms without a break. I run 1.7kms one way - rest and then run 1.7kms back - in all 3.4 kms in a day.

I feel damn tired running just the 1.7 kms, my heart beats at the end of it, just like Jim Carey's beat (in Mask) when he saw Cameron Diaz....remember the scence, when the heart is beating like a huge bellow.

Suddenly, running is becoming an obsession....I have started reading more and more about that. My immediate goal...which seems so far away is to run 1.7kms 'to' and then 1.7kms 'fro' without a pause - almost 3 1/2 kms without a break.

Next big goal is to run the Mumbai marathon next year - 7kms.....Hope I really do that.....

I was reading yesterday about people who actually run the whole marathon (26 miles, 385 yards)...and I was so awed by the whole thing.

Today in office, I was telling Prashant and Vivek Menon about how awed I was....and lo....surprise, Vivek said he had run the Boston Marathon 3 times in a row in about 3 1/2 hours each time.

I felt so deflated in that moment....so puny...so deficient....inferior.

If I ever (and I really hope I do someday) run the whole 26 miles, I shall feel invincible....I would have beaten everything.

Suddenly, thats a feeling worth wanting to live for. I now know someone who has done it......

"My kick the bucket" list

** 1. Scale Everest.** 2. Bike down to Leh3. Publish a work of fiction.** 4. Run a 42k Marathon.5. Do a 3 month Vipaasna course6. Motor down to Leh7. Visit the Golden Temple8. Watch a Roger Waters Concert9. Write a book of poems (not necessarily publish)

(** refers to items which the defeatist in me feels I shall never achieve.....)