Israel: Power politics

The shape of the government that Binyamin Netanyahu is going to form in Israel has become clear, after Ehud Barak narrowly won the Labour party's backing to enter the coalition. The benefits of a centre-left partner are obvious for a rightwing Likud leader who remembers how power slipped from his fingers during his first term as premier. With Labour on board, the Likud leader can claim his administration is broader, more representative of opinion at home and more credible on the international stage. It also gives him a bigger majority.

What Labour gets in return is, crudely, power. Too much of it, for a party that was humiliated in the polls. Five cabinet posts is a big reward for a party that secured only 13 seats in the Knesset. But power to do what? The debate in the Labour party's central committee on Tuesday night was an anguished affair. Those on the left who appealed for the party to reject Likud's offer said Labour would be consigned to the scrapheap of history. An equally impassioned Mr Barak said he would not be anyone's figleaf and would provide a counterweight to the right. Some in the party accuse the defence minister of confusing the party's political interests for his own. Taking Mr Barak at his word, where and how will the counterweight be felt?

Mr Barak got two concessions from Mr Netanyahu, one declarative and one more substantive. Having rejected Tzipi Livni, the Kadima leader's formula of two states for two peoples, Mr Netanyahu agreed to a form of words recognising Israel's "diplomatic and international" obligations. This includes accords envisaging Palestinian statehood. The second concession to Mr Barak was a commitment to carry on negotiating with the Palestinian Authority. Here again, the commitment to a two-state solution is not explicit. The PA has so far got nothing for the 18 months it has spent talking to Israel. So Mr Netanyahu's agreement to continue talking could be regarded as no big deal.

The biggest loser of Tuesday night's power-broking was Ms Livni. Her decision to reject a more generous offer than the Labour leader has accepted will now be scrutinised by both left and right in her party, and she may well struggle to keep it together. But the challenge now is for Barack Obama. Only his administration can delineate the limits within which Mr Netanyahu will operate. Only a US president can insist that Israel keeps food, oil and electricity going into Gaza. Only he can say no to a government which is planning to build 3,000 housing units between the West Bank settlement of Ma'aleh Adumim and East Jerusalem. Only he can insist that Israel does not choke off a Palestinian state before it is even born.