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Busy hurricane season expected, NOAA says, with up to 19 named storms possible

Of the predicted six to 10 hurricanes, three to six could be major, packing wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Helene churning over the Atlantic Ocean in 2006. Hurricanes have grown more intense in recent years, though their overall number has declined.(Photo: HO, AFP/Getty Images)

“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator.

Forecasts include storms that spin up in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

Tropical Storm Arthur kicked off the season a bit early this week as it grazed the North Carolina coast with rain and wind on Monday. The next named storm will be Bertha, followed by Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay.

Speaking about the coronavirus, Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA, said “social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID-19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go-kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more. With tornado season at its peak, hurricane season around the corner, and flooding, earthquakes and wildfires a risk year-round, it is time to revise and adjust your emergency plan now.”

Last month, meteorologists at Colorado State University predicted 16 tropical storms will form, eight of which will become hurricanes. In the 1980s, Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts.

Last year, NOAA predicted nine to 15 named tropical storms would spin up, of which four to eight would be hurricanes. In all, 18 named storms formed, including six hurricanes. The worst storm was Dorian, which tore through the Bahamas.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 11 to 18 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms hit the west coast of Mexico. Remnant moisture from the storms can dump heavy rain on the U.S. Southwest, leading to flooding.