Press release: State of the Locals at 1pm

“With two thirds of councils declared, the picture at lunch time looks much the same as it did first thing this morning. We’ve seen an entrenchment of the status quo with Labour doing well in cities and the Conservatives doing well outside them.

Not many councils have changed hands and in real terms it’s fairly level pegging between the two main parties. But this is playing worse for Labour because expectations had been raised that they could take major targets like Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet. They had to talk up their chances in those races to get their vote out but in terms of expectation management that has now backfired.

The reality is that neither of the main parties is demonstrating an ability to breakthrough beyond their current level of support.

Elsewhere, it’s been a good set of results for the Liberal Democrats who will feel back in the game and a very bad night for UKIP who are effectively wiped out.

We should remember, however, that this is not an opinion poll; these are real elections to choose the people who will make tough decisions about how councils deliver local services in challenging times. By and large councils of all political complexions have done a pretty good job over the last four years and where they have voters are tending to stick with them.”