Bad weather favors passionate, and depresses the turnout of older folks. The best weather for Ron Paul would be a small blizzard. His supporters are by far the most passionate about his candidacy. And would walk through a hurricane to vote for him.

Unfortunately, the weather looks pretty mild today. Cool, but not freezing, and only a 10 percent chance of rain in some parts of the state.

This means plenty of older voters are going to head to their precincts.

So it looks like Ron Paul is going to have to win this one on organization, and youth turnout.