Driverless cars still a long way off

June 24, 2014|Jim MacPherson, On The Road

Two years ago, the annual MIT/New England Motor Press Association Technology Conference focused on autonomous vehicles. These are cars and trucks that can drive themselves. The conclusion: Autonomous vehicles will impact every aspect of vehicle and road design.

Start with the need for roads. Autonomous vehicles should be able to operate with smaller space margins, meaning that roads will be able to carry more traffic. Since autonomous vehicles are safer and much less likely to crash, vehicle structure could be minimized and safety features reduced. This would lead to lower weight and better fuel economy.

This year’s conference, held last month, was titled “Engineering Safer Drivers.” Inevitably, the focus returned to autonomous vehicles and the role drivers will play in their operation. The conclusion this time around: People contemplating the end of DWH, or driving while human, will have to wait.

Bryan Reimer, research scientist at the MIT AgeLab and associate director of the New England University Transportation Center, summed up the changes that are coming. Automation, he says, will change the operation of the car, but drivers will still be the responsible party. This creates a problem. As drivers have less control, they will become less capable of taking over when things go wrong. Think back to Jan. 15, 2009 and US Airways flight 1549, piloted by Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger. After both engines failed, Sullenberger managed to set the plane down in the Hudson River with no loss of life. No automatic pilot could have accomplished this feat, which was described by then- National Transportation Safety Board member Kitty Higgins as the most successful ditching of a plane in aviation history.

Now, imagine some similar unimaginable scenario on a crowded highway with autonomous cars traveling at high speed with minimal space cushions. Without skilled drivers ready to take control, there could be a catastrophe.

Reimer notes that as automation has increased in the airplane cockpit, pilot skills have eroded. With more automation in automobiles, we could all become inexperienced drivers. That has prompted the airline industry to take a step back. Instead of supplanting the pilot, automation should support the pilot. “Would you get in a plane without a pilot?” Reimer says. “I wouldn’t.”

Still, he suggests that vehicle automation could be useful as a support mechanism. “No older driver should be without forward collision mitigation,” he says. This is a feature available today, usually as an option, on an increasing number of cars. It can detect an imminent crash and either warn the driver or apply the brakes.

There are several obstacles in the path to autonomous vehicles. John Capp, director of Electrical & Control Systems Research at General Motors, notes one of the problems. “People still want to drive,” but they increasingly want semi-autonomous support systems in their vehicles, too.

Perhaps one of the greatest obstacles to seeing more vehicle autonomy was highlighted in the presentation made by John Bozzella, president and CEO of Global Automakers, an industry trade group. The first challenge is one of regulation. Currently, some states are stepping into the void, which creates the possibility of 50 different standards for increasingly autonomous vehicles.

In addition, vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, which allows a car to take note of vehicles outside a driver’s visual field, will rely on dedicated radio frequencies, which are being actively sought by other users.

The final issue is that there will always be older, non-autonomous vehicles on the road.

“If we could ban old vehicles, we would make much faster progress,” Reimer says. “But this isn’t China; we can’t do that.” The need to accommodate older cars will not only slow the adoption of this technology, but it could also limit how far we can go. Only one thing is certain: The future is going to be interesting.