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Re: Putin: West wants to put Russian bear 'on a chain'

Originally Posted by Fallenangel

b. Putin (according to what I know) never had plans to turn Ukraine into Russian "protectorate" (whatever this means in your context). This asinine "understanding" of the conflict is unfortunately shared by multiple so-called experts in the West, which in turn promote it to the levels gov. and the general population.

Please note "protectorate" does not always equal Stalin or Nazi styled repression. In the case of Putin's plans for Ukraine, most of the Ukrainians would barely know day by day that they were Russian protectorate. Ukrainian flags would fly, national laws be passed by the national assembly, and the existing Russian style klepto capitalism would continue. So long as the Russian veto on foreign policy was not challenged, things would exist as before.

The maidan coup was probably not a good idea as no coup against a democratically elected government, no matter how corrupt is. On the other hand, maidan, no maidan, or an Iron Maiden concert, the first time a Ukrainian president:

A Took a course of action in those areas that Putin did not like and
B. Defied Putin's veto of that decision,

The same mix of mysterious "Little Green Men", local malcontents (some of whom may have legitiamte concerns), Russian volunteers, mercenaries and "vacationing" paratroopers was going to appear in eastern Ukraine and move steadily westward.

Please note "protectorate" does not always equal Stalin or Nazi styled repression. In the case of Putin's plans for Ukraine, most of the Ukrainians would barely know day by day that they were Russian protectorate. Ukrainian flags would fly, national laws be passed by the national assembly, and the existing Russian style klepto capitalism would continue. So long as the Russian veto on foreign policy was not challenged, things would exist as before.

The situation you described is a natural state of affairs where more powerful nations, if needed influence the actions of smaller nations according to their own interests. The thing is that you then go on and inject things like "Russian style klepto capitalism, etc." failing to realize that Ukraine already had that system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, long before Putin, Yanukovich or Poroshenko actually came to power.

Russia made a crucial mistake over the past few decades - the mistake was to treat Ukraine as granted, believing that Ukraine would always remain in its sphere of influence simply because of a shared history, culture and economy. Due to the sheer incompetence of Russian officials which have missed the so-called "Ukrainization" that has been going on in the past few decades, Russia started to lose its influence in Ukraine and hence its interests got under direct threat.

Originally Posted by Cryptic

The maidan coup was probably not a good idea as no coup against a democratically elected government, no matter how corrupt is. On the other hand, maidan, no maidan, or an Iron Maiden concert, the first time a Ukrainian president:

A Took a course of action in those areas that Putin did not like and
B. Defied Putin's veto of that decision,

What Putin's veto?

Originally Posted by Cryptic

The same mix of mysterious "Little Green Men", local malcontents (some of whom may have legitiamte concerns), Russian volunteers, mercenaries and "vacationing" paratroopers was going to appear in eastern Ukraine and move steadily westward.

Here you again produce something that has absolutely no connection with reality or the chronology of the events in Eastern Ukraine.

Once Crimea was secured, "official Russia" hesitated on whether to support the anti-Kiev uprising in Eastern Ukraine and to what extent, it took a long time until Russia actually acted in a decisive manner. In August it got clear that unless Russia is going to intervene directly the anti-Kiev fighters would be defeated by Ukrainian ATO forces.

This understanding hastened the change in anti-Kiev fighters' command structure where people like Strelkov were gradually replaced by ones that can cooperate with Russia's political elites. Increased "Voentorg" supplies and what is known in Russia as the "Northern Wind" started flowing into Donbas, this lead to the appearance of BTR-82A, T-72B3...etc and their operators.
In a set of offensive maneuvers that no one anticipated in the West/Ukraine, Ukrainian forces were crushed on some key directions, yet despite the pleads of anti-Kiev commanders "Northern Wind" stopped blowing, and the offensive stopped.

If Russia wanted to get to get to Harkov, Dnepropetrovsk or even Kiev it would've done that by now, and unless something is going to change on the ground nobody is going to attempt that in the near future.

Re: Putin: West wants to put Russian bear 'on a chain'

Originally Posted by Fallenangel

If Russia wanted to get to get to Harkov, Dnepropetrovsk or even Kiev it would've done that by now, and unless something is going to change on the ground nobody is going to attempt that in the near future.

6. States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.

Re: Putin: West wants to put Russian bear 'on a chain'

They tend to adhere to the policy. Despite joining the NATO Membership Action Plan in 1999, Macedonia has been denied entry until a dispute with Greece over the name "Macedonia" is resolved.

Everyone tends to adhere to a policy as long as it suits ones needs, but things change.
Both NATO countries and Russia would act to protect their interests and influence, does this mean that Ukraine would be granted a NATO membership tomorrow? No it doesn't.