Fear not the 'bot? As robots take jobs, experts ask if humans will keep up

A Fanuc America CNC machine loads and unloads brake components while a worker packages the output.

A robot can screw in a bolt, run a conveyor system or track inventory — and, so far, can even be trusted with large sums of cash.

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in Detroit, automated hi-los move wrapped pallets of cash, often as much as $8 million at a time, to and from the counting room to the vault, which is home to $14 billion of U.S. currency.

The hi-los replaced traditional laborers in managing the cash pallets, a local example of how robots increasingly perform some previous functions of blood-pumping, oxygen-breathing humans.

During the next 10 to 20 years, real estate agents, cab drivers — even associate lawyers — are subject to automation, according to an Oxford University report published in March. The study estimates that robots could replace nearly half of the current U.S. workforce.

Technological change is occurring at a rapid pace, faster than in any point in history, but is it threatening the livelihood of the American, and Southeast Michigan, workforce?

Experts say that depends on whether organizational leaders learn to embrace the robot and shift human jobs to the right parts of the manufacturing or service-providing process: programming the robots, repairing and maintaining them, and adapting work processes as the economy continues to evolve.

In other words, humans remain in control of the discovery.

In 2012, manufacturers sold 26,269 industrial robots in North America, a figure which is expected to rise to more than 31,000 by 2016, according to data by the International Federation of Robotics. That figure is expected to rise to near 200,000 industrial robots sold in 2016 globally.

The global population of robots exceeded 1.3 million last year, according to the IFR, and there's no sign of things slowing down.

The automotive industry makes up about 40 percent of the global supply of industrial robots, but use is growing in other sectors.

Rochester Hills-based Fanuc America Corp. and its Japan-based parent company have manufactured more than 250,000 industrial robots over the past 30 years.

James Vaughan, general manager of paint shop automation sales for Fanuc America, said automotive robot sales make up one-third of its supply, but its largest growth sectors are aerospace, agriculture and pharmaceuticals.

Robot orders for the food and beverage industry grew by 4 percent in 2012 and are expected to rise sharply along with the pharmaceutical industry, according to the IFR.

Vaughan said the use of robots will continue to change — and enter more industries — but this will ultimately create jobs, thanks to higher efficiency and reduced labor costs.

"We've seen technological changes in the past; we've moved from hunting and gathering to mass production — and jobs always find a way," Vaughan said. "Because of automation, the U.S. is more competitive with Mexico and Asia, so we're really strengthening the market by having these companies bring back manufacturing."

In 2013, U.S. manufacturers increased 3 percent and productivity increased 1.9 percent over 2012, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Laborand Statistics. However, labor costs decreased 0.1 percent.

Local jobs at risk?

Manufacturing employment in the state increased 2 percent in 2013, adding 13,084 jobs, according to the 2014 Michigan Manufacturers Directory. The city of Detroit recorded its first gain since the recession, up 1.8 percent in 2013. Other cities with increases included Auburn Hills, up 5.8 percent; Sterling Heights, up 3.6 percent; and Warren, up 1.8 percent.

But the economy is still in recovery mode, experts say.

Frank Levy, professor emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a longtime researcher of technology's impact on employment, said people often looks for something to blame for employment shortfalls — and robots are easy targets.

"People have a short memory; the economy is still recovering from the financial collapse," Levy said. "That was no ordinary recession, and people are looking for things to get better, but it takes time and it's not due to technology."

"Sometimes workers are fearful when we enter a plant because of the union or because they feel their jobs are in jeopardy, but they should know that the company is investing in that facility, and that's job security," he said.

"The old-school plants that see (robotics) as a threat, well, those plants won't be around for long."

Levy co-authored a 2013 study, "Dancing with Robots," which studied how education must change to meet technological demands.

While more processes are becoming automated, robots still can't function like the human brain. "Over time, we've seen more and more robots take over the assembly line, but they can't replace all jobs," Levy said. "Robots don't respond quickly to change, and computers are strongest when there is a repetition of a single action, so humans still have roles in the workplace; they just may be a little different in the future."

Stephen Spurr, economist and interim chair of the economics department at Wayne State University, said despite a hollowing-out of low-skilled jobs due to automation, there is no reason for alarm.

"We know more and more jobs are going to be automated," Spurr said. "The huge increases in technology always cause concern that people will be out of work, but we'll never get to the point where our wants will taper. Our wants increase exponentially with our output. People will have jobs, just different jobs."

Terminating misperceptions

Robots have brought fear and paranoia to the American worker since the first robot entered the factory floor.

General Motors Co. installed the first robot, a 4,000 pound Unimate, at its plant in Ewing Township, N.J., in 1961. The robot, a six-axis arm attached magnetically to a steel drum, welded and moved parts weighing up to 500 pounds. The Unimate performed a job deemed dangerous to workers.

In March 1964, President Lyndon Johnson received a memorandum from a group of professors, technologists and activists, warning him that computers and automation would cause unemployment.

However, the U.S. has added more than 74 million jobs since 1964. For their part, computers and robots have changed the skills and wages of the workforce.

Fast-forward 50 years, and robots are part of nearly every facet of manufacturing. At Prism Plastics LLC in Chesterfield Township, only three employees work on the plant floor in the 26,000-square-foot factory.

Tooling U works with manufacturers and community colleges to create updated manufacturing skills, including operation and maintenance of increasingly more complex robotics, said Jeannine Kunz, director of Tooling U.

"The part of the robotics story that gets missed is the jobs they create," Kunz said. "A lot of low-skilled jobs went overseas years ago, but the ones that didn't are now higher-skilled jobs working with robots, and they are much higher-paid."

Thousands of people take Tooling U's online courses daily, Kunz said. The center recently launched a 14-course program for global employees of Siemens AG. That program is now available to other companies.

However, community colleges continue to struggle filling classes on robotics, said Phil Callihan, executive director of Ann Arbor-based National Center for Manufacturing Sciences. He fears the state could miss out on the jobs of the future.

"As robotics and autonomous vehicles make their way into society, there is a huge opportunity for trade schools and community colleges," he said.

"We need to set up an environment for the jobs robots are creating, because someone has to work on those robots and maintain those robots; there will always be jobs for workers that get their hands dirty."

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