Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Saturday, 14 May 2011

My spreadsheet doesn't handle neutral venues very well, so the FA Cup Final for once takes a back-seat to the League action, which is unfortunate really. Cup Final day was always a highlight of my year, and one of the earliest I can remember was another "all City" final - the one between Manchester and Leicester in 1969. City in their red and black stripes, Leicester in blue, but for me it was all in black and white. I am the victim of a deprived childhood. Life-long City fan Neil Young scored the winner, and Big Mal, a hero of mine in later years, had his hands on another major trophy. The overriding memory of that year was the excitement about Crystal Palace taking their rightful place in the top division for the first time in their history, a summer holiday in North Devon that I recall being blessed with sunshine every day, although looking back, that seems a little unlikely, and watching another Neil go for a walk on the Moon.Bryan Adams had a good summer that year too.Coincidentally, Manchester City beat Leicester City in the Third Round this year, with Roberto Mancini wearing a red and black scarf that day in a tribute to cancer stricken Neil Young who sadly passed away soon after in February this year aged just 66. Most readers of this blog are probably much younger than I am, and think that 66 is a decent age, but the older you get, the younger it seems. It's also perhaps worth pointing out that few players in those days made enough money to see them through life after football. Not helped perhaps by two divorces, Young had many different jobs, including removals, managing a sports shop, delivering milk, working in a supermarket and selling insurance. His financial problems meant he had to move in with his mother. "Deeply depressed at this point in his life, at one point he attempted suicide". While the thought of moving back in with my mother would certainly be a little depressing, I'm not sure that I would go so far as to commit suicide to avoid it. Well, OK, maybe I would.On to more serious matters than death, cancer and suicide and what do we have in store so far as the league action is concerned today? Some strong draws in Blackpool v Bolton Wanderers, West Bromwich Albion v Everton (the 1968 Cup Final teams), and Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen. These, and more, are posted over at Gold All Over. Keen eyes will notice that I missed out on three picks in midweek, simply because it takes me so long to catch up the numbers these days that I was simply too slow. As is often the case with these things, two of the the three went on to win. Typical, and I still need to catch up France, Spain and Germany.The Value spreadsheet shows nothing in the Over / Under market of value for the EPL games, but Bolton, Sunderland and Everton all look value (in that order), as do Blackburn, although the lay of United will be my play here. Serie A has now joined the EPL in having all the data caught up, and Unders looks to be the value in both games. What is very strange is that in the AC Milan v Cagliari game, my Match Odds are exactly those on the exchange, yet my Under / Over 2.5 goals prices are reversed. While I have the Under at 1.7, on Betfair it is available at 2.62! This is a dangerous game though, with the title already clinched, the game is unlikely to played in the same manner as it would have been a few weeks ago. The Lazio v Genoa game is the same with the Under / Over flip-flopped, although my Match Odds are a little different, with a lay of Lazio the value bet. Lest any readers take me too seriously, my Mum does not read this blog. Tech savvy she is not - in fact, the first Cup Final she saw in colour was Chelsea v Portsmouth last year - she was waiting for the prices to come down - not counting the Manchester City v Bolton Wanderers final, which she saw in person at the Crystal Palace. Maybe.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.