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If you'll indulge a little probability analysis, I think I have good news for you. Even assuming OSU has been clearly superior the last 18 seasons, they have been lucky as hell to be 17-1 against us. Why is that good news? Because even with our recently good, but not as good as OSU, recruiting, we can still reasonably expect to win a few more games against them. Let me explain.

We can easily imagine winning a single coin flip (50% probability). Emotionally we don't grasp very well just how hard it is to win even a few coin flips in a row. For example, if you win on heads, the chance of a coin coming up heads 10 times in a row is 0.098%. This is why going undefeated, even for Alabama, is hard.

So, let's say OSU is so much better than Michigan that the Schmuckeyes can expect to win any single game 75% of the time (3 out of 4). The chance of OSU winning 17 or more of the last 18 games with us is 3.9%. In other words, even assuming OSU is as far ahead of us as the chicken little faction of this blog believes, we still should have won more games than 1 out of 18! This makes sense, considering that in the last 3 seasons OSU has lost to a good Sparty team, and been run off the field by an OKish Iowa, and a mediocre Purdue.

I'm not saying "we're due." (That's another fallacy.) What I am saying is that we should win more games against those turkeys even if 2016 and 2018 are as good as Harbaugh teams get. The thing with slumps is that they seem like they'll last forever until suddenly, they don't. I firmly believe Harbaugh is as good as we thought he is, and that eventually the angry, Old Testament, Michigan-hating God will get tired of us, and find a new chew toy.

AMEN! And the endless urinating contests over who said what, what they meant, and whether that's outrageous, are unspeakably tiresome. I can't believe some jackwagon had the stones to go after BronxBlue with everything he's done for the board.

I wish the mods would lock forum posts a little quicker when the discussion falls into a rabbit hole.

You have a good point, but only if you take the Lions seriously. I'm 57; I've followed the Lions since I was a young boy. One win in the playoffs, in my lifetime! I prefer to think of them as a football-themed improvisational comedy troup.

Out of respect, I chose to respond to this better articulated post than your first one. However, I disagree. You have a point about Jay's qualifications when he was hired in 2015. Since then, he has coached several different position groups, and they have all performed well. In 2015 he coached the TEs, and the depth behind Jake Butt was a revelation. In 2016, he coached STs the season after the ST guru left for USC, and they maintained the high level of play from the prior season. In 2017 he coached the RBs, and three different players showed they were good enough to be the feature back in a run heavy offense. Any one of them would have gained 1000 yards in they each hadn't been injured just as they settled into the role. This season he coaches the RBs again, and we got that 1000 yard rusher.

Has he had opportunities that a similar coach not named Harbaugh would have never received? Absolutely, a similar coach would be learning his craft as a position coach at the FCS level. Is Michigan suffering any consequences from having him here? Absolutely not! Right now Jay Harbaugh is not even on the list of Michigan coaching issues.

Here's a thought. Why doesn't Michigan start a truth and reconciliation program. Convince all the Wolverines who have moved on from the University to spill all the beans about all the "extra benefits" they were offered and accepted. Including from U of M. We've read the interview with Devin Gardner where he referenced all the backsheesh he was offered to flip on Michigan. OK, out with all of it. Hire a prestigious law firm, sworn depositions. I'm willing to bet Michigan's infractions will pale by comparison, and the NCAA will be unable to silence or single us out.

And, I'm sick of Michigan fans attacking each other over stupid stuff. Hey, I get it. The scoreboard speaks for itself, and no rationalizations change the results. However, other people enjoy these thought experiments because it helps them decide whether they should be freaking out over, oh say...the worst loss to Ohio State in school history. Let each fan deal with his/her own BPONE using whatever works!

Please, please get over this. Sure it's Florida again, and a bit of a no win game. If Michigan wins, it will be spun as we were supposed to win, nothing to see here. But, if we lose, the anti-Harbaugh memes will write themselves.

On the other hand, in 14 out of the last 17 seasons, Michigan has ended with a loss to OSU and a loss in a bowl game (or no bowl game). You want to make it 15 out of 18 because you're butt hurt about playing Florida?

I'm fine with Rashan sitting out because he has a nagging injury that affected him for two seasons. Everyone else, you're a football player. Play football! If you are turning pro next year, buy an injury insurance contract, which should do anyway because you can hurt yourself off of the field too.

Honestly, where did this idea that any bowl game that isn't a playoff game is just an exhibition come from? Can we send it back to the abyss from which it came? What's next? If the playoffs expand to include all the conference champions, is any non-conference game just an exhibition?!

Sadly correct. However, if we beat Florida, I think you'd have an argument. Is beating the weakest OSU team in the 21st Century and magic unicorns farting rainbows to 11-2, greater than the same record on a much firmer basis with the only two losses to the #3 and #5 teams pre-bowl games? It's not obvious to me.

I was driving home from church listening to NPR. They announced that Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State would be participating in the college football playoff. I thought what the what?! Nice to see that not only ES(ec)PN can mess up.

My man, you are right, but that doesn't matter. We as a fan base have perfectly understandable PTSD about the end of the season. In the last 14 seasons, we've ended ELEVEN of them with a loss to OSU and a loss in the bowl game (or no bowl game). Two have ended with a loss to OSU and a win in the bowl game, and ONLY ONCE have we won the OSU and bowl games. Even that season proved to be a magical unicorns farting rainbows kind of fools' gold season. Every fan of this fan base has every right to freak out in any way possible (short of felonious assault) about these games. It would be inhuman to expect anything else.

Dude, YOU come to this site for the exceptional analysis. Other readers have other needs. Group therapy for 15 years and counting of usually getting our hearts broken the last two games of the season is a valid purpose. Get off your high horse.

BronxBlue, thanks for doing this, both during the season and after that craptastic game. I do have to disagree with you on one point. No, the offense was not fine in any respect this game. There were troubling signs that the offensive game planning was timid and predictable all season. We told ourselves that they were trying to keep Shea's turnover tendencies down, and keep him healthy for this game, and not show to much of the playbook, yada yada yada. So now we get to this game, and voila! None of those things were true. We saw more imaginative, trend busting play calls against Rutgers. Shea had more designed runs against Indiana. No the offense didn't score 31 points in the competitive part of the game. 41-19 with the defense unable to stop an unruly toddler, let alone OSU's offense. It was over then; therefore, they scored 19 in the competitive portion of the game

It's possible this is the offense Harbaugh wants, and Pep is just doing what he's told. I don't buy that argument, and we're not firing Jim Harbaugh. Pep needs to go even if he's just an innocent victim of Jim's myopia. It's been this way for two seasons now; we yak up our worst offensive game plans in our biggest games, and extra weeks before the game just makes them even worse. Time to try something different. We didn't accept last year's debacle on the offensive line, and low Warriner fixed most of what ailed that unit. It's just time to move on from Pep.

That royally pissed me off. I already loathed the Yankees for ruining the baseball season regularly. But that year, those [anatomically unlikely individuals] found a way to ruin the football season. I didn't figure out the OSU connection with Steinbozo (roast in hell you fucker!) for a few years, but it sure figures.

If you want to see the source of our PTSD/BPONE, look at the last two columns since 2004. In the last 14 seasons, 8 have ended with losses to OSU and in a bowl game, 3 with a loss to OSU and no bowl game, only 3 ended with a win over OSU &/or in a bowl, and of those 3 only ONE season winning both. We've seen a lot of success over that time, and in every other respect there's been substantial improvement since Harbaugh arrived. But, 11 of 14 seasons ending with a stench in your mouth, 2 that are bittersweet, and only one cube of sugar; man! It's easy to demand everyone from the AD to the equipment staff be fired. It ain't rational, but it's understandable.

True, but you aren't dark enough. I'm firmly in the camp "if Harbaugh can't fix it, no one can." Now however I'm coming round to the point of view that it's not "fixable," if that means winning at the top tier of college football.

You have to ask yourself, why are Saban and Meyer superior? I think the key is "winning with CHARACTER and cruelty." (BTW, Les' OSU program was one of the least ethical programs around, and the less said of LSU and the SEC the better.) Sure, roids, payola, and recruiting illiterate thugs have been around CFB for decades. The difference is that in our data driven analytics, moneyball society, the top organizations make sure every tool in the tool box, even the most unethical ones, will be used to the fullest extent. In our hyperefficient competitive world, you can only hang with OSU or Alabama by playing like them. I don't want Michigan going down that road, and I'm coming to terms with the idea Harbaugh may be more Ferenz than Saban.

In the meantime, our luck purely sucks. It sucks that the B1G East is so stacked, while the B1G West is a rotating participation trophy. It's boggling but true that since Michigan fired him, Rich Rodriguez has more Conference Game appearances than his two successors combined. It sucks that OSU never, ever gets unlucky enough to lose against us, instead of PSU, MSU, Iowa, or PURDUE for the love of Pete! I don't know whether God hates Michigan, but I am confident Lady Luck is a Buckeye loving skank.