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A Siena Poll released this weekend shows a close race for Erie County Executive, with incumbent Republican Chris Collins — who flirted with a 2010 gubernatorial run, but demurred amid some crass comments — leading Democratic Comptroller Mark Poloncarz 49-46. The poll has a 3.4 percent margin of error, and showed 6 percent of voters undecided.

Team Poloncarz has used this poll to boast that he’s a contender (“These numbers confirm what I have been hearing on the campaign trail all along—voters have seen enough of Chris Collins running Erie County like a failed Wall Street business and want a change of leadership,” Poloncarz said in a statement.); Collins’ aides attacked the veracity of the survey saying it oversampled the city of Buffalo (“This is simply the latest in a string of inaccurate, media-sponsored polls that get it wrong every time,” the campaign said.)

But regardless of the tit-for-tat, it seems to have piqued the interest of state-level Democrats. This morning, Democratic State Committee Political Director Rich Horner issued a statement attacking Collins. The committee’s executive director, Charlie King, is a Cuomo ally and has served, now that we’re not in election season, as the governor’s political arm. So I read their involvement as a sign of the governor’s interest:

“Erie County Executive Chris Collins was nowhere to be found this weekend after a Siena College poll showed his race for reelection in a dead heat with Democratic Comptroller Mark Poloncarz,” Horner said. “Collins silence is matched only by the voices of Erie residents heard in the poll saying his days as County Executive are numbered. The people of Erie County know that the Chris Collins plan for job creation is the “Collins Friends and Family” plan that enriches his cronies and family but do nothing for Erie citizens. As Collins gives raises to political cronies and raises taxes, he cuts funding for local libraries, day care, parks and health programs for women and children.”

Poloncarz spokesman Peter Anderson took it one step furthers, saying the governor himself “has promised that he will do a rally for us and give us an endorsement. We’re expecting both of those things.” Cuomo’s spokesman, Josh Vlasto, couldn’t confirm that was the case. The governor’s approval rating in Erie County is 68 percent, higher than both of the candidates.

Despite these high poll numbers, Cuomo has avoided direct campaigning since taking office. He endorsed Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul in her successful congressional bid, but wasn’t nearly as active in his support for her as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who offered a full-throated endorsement before polls showed her ahead of Assemblywoman Jane Corwin and also urged her acolytes to donate to Hochul’s campaign. Cuomo, when asked, endorsed Hochul and recorded a video message. Lt. Gov. Bob Duffy stumped for her in the last days of the campaign.

But Cuomo has fingerprints in Erie County. They got smudged this summer on Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan, who was supposed to exit his post in a Cuomo-sponsored, King-brokered plan to unite the warring factions of the Buffalo Democrats. The plan fell apart and Lenihan remains. But that Cuomo tried — the Buffalo News’ Bob McCarthy suggested success here would merit consideration for the Nobel Peace Prize – was a sign he wanted a functional arm in the county, likely with a long eye toward Collins.

It’s not clear if he’s thinking of a 2014 gubernatorial run, but he’s definitely on my mental shortlist of prospective candidates. If he can be knocked out now, so much the easier for the governor’s re-election efforts.

So, keep an eye on this Poloncarz-Collins race, and keep an eye on how much of a proxy battle it becomes on the state level.

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