Texas Rangers baseball and more, by Scott Lucas

December 31, 2009

What Engel Beltre's 2009 Says About His Future

If a prospect is highly regarded enough to play in a High-A league at the tender age of 19, how much does his actual performance there matter? Are the better hitters in High-A more likely to reach the Majors and stay there, or is simply being a High-A youngster indicative of future success?

I ask because of Engel Beltre, the toolsy center fielder Texas acquired as part of the Eric Gagne trade in July 2007. He was a consensus top-10 prospect in Texas’s newly-loaded system that offseason. (I ranked him lower than anyone at 12th, which looks prescient now but was just dumb luck on my part.) After a 2008 in Low-A Clinton filled with highs (.283 average, 43 extra-base hits, 31 steals) and lows (2% walk rate, several early removals for not obeying coach instructions), he still maintained status at the lower end of the top 10. Texas’s modus operandi for many of its prospects is to place them at the highest level possible, and each prospect’s goal is to prove that he’s not overwhelmed. Thus, Beltre jumped to High-A Bakersfield in 2009 despite a season that encouraged more Low-A seasoning.

The 19-year-old Beltre backslid, hitting only .227/.281/.317. He maintained his prowess on the basepaths and drew a few more walks, but the rest of his game declined. On May 28th, a walk and hit-by-pitch improved Beltre’s line to .249/.308/.359. That was his apex. Afterwards, he batted a meager .205/.255/.273 through mid-July, when a broken bone in his hand more-or-less ended his season (aside from a handful of September at-bats in AA Frisco).

So, to what extent does Beltre’s dreadful 2009 matter? In an attempt to answer this question, I’ve compared Beltre to his peers: batters achieving substantial playing time in High-A at the age of 19. There aren’t many of them. Between 1992 and 2006, only 96 19-year-old batters collected enough plate appearances to rank in the top 100 in a High-A league. That’s just over six per year and only about 2% of all qualifying batters.

I created a table for these players with a gaggle of statistics: the basic “slash” stats, average on contact, rates for homers, all extra-base hits, walks and strikeouts, and a modified version of Bill James’s Speed Score. I then rated each stat for each player in comparison to the league average for his particular year, and then ranked all the players from top to bottom. (FWIW, as a backup, I also ranked the players using linear weights and ended up with essentially the same rankings.) Finally, I tabulated each player’s Major League plate appearances. For my purposes, how well the player performed in the Majors isn’t critical; the length of the career alone is largely indicative of performance.

For ease of comparison, I split the 96 players into a top half and bottom half based on performance. In my system, Beltre ranks 31st among 42 Cal League batters with at least 250 PAs since 1992. Which is to say, well within the bottom half. I classified the players’ MLB careers (or lack thereof) as follows:

Free Agent (3,000+ Plate Appearances) – The player lasted long enough to reach free agency. Not everyone in this category is quite there (e.g., Grady Sizemore), but close enough.

Regular (500-2,999 PA) – The player was a regular for at least one season or a heavily used backup for several.

Long Look (150-499 PA) – The player almost certainly received some playing time outside of September roster expansions, but not enough to play regularly for more than a few months.

Cup of Coffee (1-150 PA) – The player received a handful of at-bats, likely during September.

None (0 PA) – The player never reached the Majors.

The results:

Type of MLB Career

19-Year-Olds in California League

19-Year-Olds in Carolina League

19-Year-Olds in Florida State League

Combined

In Top Half

In Bottom Half

In Top Half

In Bottom Half

In Top Half

In Bottom Half

In Top Half

In Bottom Half

FREE AGENT (3,000+ PA)

4

0

3

1

7

6

14

7

REGULAR (500-2,999 PA)

4

1

2

1

6

2

12

4

LONG LOOK (150-499 PA)

1

1

3

1

0

1

4

3

CUP OF COFFEE (1-149 PA)

5

4

0

1

1

2

6

7

NONE (0 PA)

6

14

1

5

5

8

12

27

Type of MLB Career

19-Year-Olds in High-A

"Top Half" Performers

"Bottom Half" Performers

FREE AGENT

29%

15%

REGULAR or better

54%

23%

LONG LOOK or better

63%

29%

CUP OF COFFEE or better

75%

44%

Did not play in MLB

25%

56%

Over one-half of the best performers became MLB regulars, and 75% donned the uniform for at least one day. Conversely, along the worst performers, less than one-quarter became regulars, and less than one-half ever earned a Major League paycheck. For some season, the Florida State league was far more forgiving to the bottom halfers. I’d guess that’s just a vagary of a small data set.

In rough terms, 19-year-old batters in the top half were twice as likely to reach the Majors, and also twice as likely to have lengthy MLB careers.

Here’s the players with their MLB plate appearances:

"Top Half" 19-Year-Olds

"Bottom Half" 19-Year-Olds

Player

MLB PA

Player

MLB PA

Bobby Abreu

8417

Shawn Green

7962

Andruw Jones

7845

Jimmy Rollins

6512

Paul Konerko

6893

Torii Hunter

6008

Derrek Lee

6860

David Bell

5380

Edgardo Alfonzo

6108

Cesar Izturis

3818

Aramis Ramirez

5825

Miguel Cairo

3734

Jose Vidro

5708

Grady Sizemore

3612

Eric Chavez

5282

Wilton Guerrero

1797

Dmitri Young

5252

Ben Davis

1698

Miguel Cabrera

4441

Ryan Sweeney

1051

Jose Reyes

3651

Anderson Hernandez

584

Todd Hollandsworth

3492

Andres Blanco

387

Jhonny Peralta

3456

Edwards Guzman

292

Nick Johnson

3116

Willis Otanez

231

D'Angelo Jimenez

2480

Alcides Escobar

138

J.J. Hardy

2298

Anderson Machado

81

Melky Cabrera

2148

Elvis Pena

58

James Loney

1788

Josh Kroeger

55

Billy Butler

1510

Tony Torcato

53

Wilson Betemit

1275

Angel Chavez

20

Adam Jones

1180

Juan Melo

13

Willy Aybar

1081

Arturo McDowell

0

Ruben Mateo

951

Caonabo Cosme

0

Daric Barton

799

Carlos Fermin

0

Andy Marte

736

Cesar Bolivar

0

Felix Pie

568

Chad Roper

0

Gregor Blanco

473

Chris Paxton

0

Raul Gonzalez

385

Dennis Colon

0

Chris Snelling

273

Edgar Tovar

0

Edgard Clemente

270

Eric Knowles

0

Joaquin Arias

141

Feliciano Mercedes

0

Duane Singleton

93

Francis Gomez

0

Arquimedez Pozo

80

Ismael Castro

0

Joel Guzman

62

Jackson Melian

0

Dave Krynzel

54

Jhensy Sandoval

0

Luke Allen

11

Julio Bruno

0

Brian Richardson

0

Julio Cordido

0

Brian Specht

0

Luis Lorenzana

0

Cesar King

0

Nelson Samboy

0

Darren Burton

0

Nick Kimpton

0

Dwight Maness

0

Ozzie Chavez

0

Freddie Freeman

0

Rafael Soto

0

Gary Thomas

0

Ricky Bell

0

Jhonny Perez

0

Ricky Magdaleno

0

Manny Amador

0

Tony Mota

0

Scott Hunter

0

Victor Rodriguez

0

Sergio Santos

0

Will McCrotty

0

Tim Jones

0

Andre Lewis

0

Perusing the list reveals several active players who are likely to move up to a higher category. Not coincidentally, they’re mostly in the “top half” group. Hardy, Cabrera, Loney, Butler, Jones, Barton and Pie have varying probabilities of reaching 3,000 PAs. Texas’s own Joaquin Arias can escape prospect limbo by winning the backup infielder job next spring. Among the bottom-halfers, only Alcides Escobar and Ryan Sweeney have a chance at a lengthy career.

Again, Engel Beltre’s 2009 rests comfortably in the bottom half. It’s not a death knell for his MLB dreams. Keep in mind that nearly 50% of the worst 19-year-olds made the Majors. That’s awfully impressive. Nevertheless, being in the bottom half definitely puts a damper on expectations. In late March, after hearing the words every Texas minor leaguer dreads – “you’re repeating Bakersfield” – Beltre will work on becoming the next Torii Hunter instead of the next Tony Mota.