It will be quite an upset in the NFL this season if all of last season's four AFC division champions—the Patriots, Ravens, Texans and Broncos—don't repeat in 2012. From a coaching and personnel perspective, they are all improved teams from 2011.

There also are only two AFC teams, the Steelers in the North and the Chargers in the West, that even look capable of spoiling those plans—and that’s what the wild cards are for.

Given the first-place status of New England, Baltimore, Houston and Denver from a season ago, their head-to-head matchups will provide intriguing battles. Two such games are on the docket for Week 3, and the teams with the better defenses will get an early jump in the competition for the AFC's top seed.

With such heavyweights in the conference, home-field advantage is a huge asset. It worked well for the Patriots last season, but this week New England must travel to Baltimore for a championship game rematch. (All times ET)

AFC games of the week

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 8:30 p.m., NBC). When we last saw these teams on the same field in Foxborough, Billy Cundiff wasn't a hero. The last-second miss from the now former Ravens kicker took away from the fact quarterback Joe Flacco (22-for-36, 306 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) outdueled Tom Brady (22-for-36, 239 yards, no TDs, one pick) in the Patriots' 23-20 AFC title win.

Flacco's confidence and receiving corps are at higher levels than they've ever been, and being at home will also help. The Patriots' defense will look to take away Ray Rice, but targets Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are bound to boost Flacco.

Though Brady catches a break not having to face the edge pass rush of Terrell Suggs (Achilles’ tendon), he's hurt by not having tight end Aaron Hernandez to create matchup problems. Rob Gronkowski will still cause a big problem at tight end, but the Ravens will slow the run with just seven men, and it’s hard to know what to expect from the Patriots’ wideouts.

The Ravens, for a change, have more versatility and arguably a little more pop in this matchup. Even without Suggs, they will find a way to get in Brady’s face several times by rattling New England's pass protection. Flacco wants to be considered an elite QB, and finishing business vs. Brady is a good step in that direction. Ravens 24, Patriots 23.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS). Peyton Manning will feel like he’s back in the AFC South in this matchup against Matt Schaub and the Texans. It took Manning missing the '11 season for Houston to finally take control of the South, and it won't give it up anytime soon.

With Manning still working on his timing and chemistry with his receivers, however, it's a bad time to be exposed to Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense. End J.J. Watt will lead the relentless upfield charge to pressure Manning, and cornerback Johnathan Joseph will keep wide receiver Demaryius Thomas from making a big play.

The Broncos are ranked seventh in the league against the run, but the Texans are a load to handle with Arian Foster and Ben Tate—and they'll keep Broncos Pro Bowl outside linebacker Von Miller busy. Against a worn-down pass rush, look for Schaub to hit Andre Johnson for a second-half home run against Denver’s gambling corners. Texans 23, Broncos 17.

NFC Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX). However you slice it, Michael Vick and former Eagle Kevin Kolb are quarterbacking 2-0 teams. Kolb has to get the ball more to Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona to stay undefeated, but he’ll need to be wary of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the corner for whom Kolb was traded.

The real story here, however is the Cardinals' defense. Arizona can pressure Vick into mistakes with Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell up front, pushing against a Jason Kelce-less line. Linebacker Daryl Washington can cover a lot of ground to contain LeSean McCoy. Washington and safety Adrian Wilson can work to keep Vick's safety valve, tight end Brent Celek, under wraps. Given Vick's issues with ball security, it should set up nicely for speedy corner Patrick Peterson to make a big play while staying with DeSean Jackson. Cardinals 20, Eagles 17.

Upset of the week

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX). Granted, Philip Rivers has looked good picking apart the Raiders and Titans, but no quarterback has looked more impressive than Atlanta's Matt Ryan. Simply put, Ryan's receivers are healthier and more reliable than San Diego's, starting with Tony Gonzalez over Antonio Gates.

When Ryan wants to throw outside, Roddy White and Julio Jones are smoother and more physical downfield route runners than Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem. This will primarily be a passing-game matchup, given San Diego's Ryan Mathews is just returning from injury and former Charger Michael Turner hasn't found much running room. The Falcons, the better 2-0 team, will overcome a cross-country trip in a short week to win a shootout. Falcons 38, Chargers 31.

Lock of the week

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). The 0-2 Saints' offense hasn't been able to quite put everything together in two games without Sean Payton. Drew Brees has committed uncharacteristic and untimely turnovers, and the Saints haven't found the right pass-run balance in the same game. They are itching to explode on the scoreboard, however, and getting back in the Superdome against the reeling 0-2 Chiefs is just what they need.

Only one team has given up as many points—75 combined—as the Saints. That's the Chiefs, and we'll take our chances with Brees over Matt Cassel in a wild one. Saints 47, Chiefs 28.

Rest of the week

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). Feeling somewhat at home down the road near Lake Erie, the Bills will burn the Browns with the league's leading rusher (C.J. Spiller) and leading touchdown passer (Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Browns don’t have Joe Haden in coverage, so that could lead to a big day for Stevie Johnson. Defensively, the Bills' front four is coming together with the two Williams— Mario and Kyle—and they will make Brandon Weeden most uncomfortable in his third start. Bills 20, Browns 17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). Redskins fans finally get to see Robert Griffin III go to work at home, and he'll get a chance to go after a Cincinnati pass defense that has been picked apart. Washington's pass defense hasn't been great, either, and the Redskins don’t have Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker, both of whom are out for the season. Andy Dalton will use his mobility to keep the Bengals in it, but the running of Griffin will help his team prevail. Redskins 27, Bengals 24.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). Two weeks after beating Jeff Fisher, Jim Schwartz will continue a successful Nashville reunion tour against Mike Munchak. The last time Chris Johnson faced the Lions, he feasted on them for 125 yards rushing on Thanksgiving Day in 2008. He has only 21 yards on 19 carries in two games this season. The Titans' defense is also a mess, and it can't handle the size and athleticism of both Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. Lions 42, Titans 20.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Colts' schedule is favorable for Andrew Luck to settle in well early. With Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery and Coby Fleener, Luck has a more trustworthy receiving corps than Blaine Gabbert has. Indy will focus on stopping nemesis Maurice Jones-Drew and use 3-4 pressure to keep Gabbert from stealing a close one. Colts 20, Jaguars 19.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 p.m., CBS). Reggie Bush stuck it to fellow USC alums Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart last week, and now it's Mark Sanchez's turn. Bush will do his best to channel Spiller, who had a big Week 1 performance against the Jets. And the Dolphins' defense will thwart the limited pop—and old Wildcat looks—of former coach Tony Sparano, now the Jets’ offensive coordinator. As a Bronco, Tim Tebow came up with a miracle in South Florida last year, but that kind of magic won't come from Sanchez this time. Dolphins 23, Jets 20.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). This is a bad matchup for the hosts. The Niners can shut down Adrian Peterson, and Christian Ponder doesn't have enough reliable receivers to challenge them elsewhere. He also can expect to see his line worked over by Justin Smith and friends. You can count on San Francisco making sure former Viking Randy Moss does something on the fast track of a dome that used be his NFL home (twice). 49ers 30, Vikings 10.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). There's more controversy surrounding Jay Cutler, and Matt Forte is injured. But Chicago has had a long time to shake off its Thursday nightmare at Green Bay and should keep things simpler against the Rams. Michael Bush will be a productive, busy power runner in Forte's place. Brandon Marshall also will re-emerge in his battle with Cortland Finnegan. Sam Bradford will be under duress, and the Bears’ cover 2 will keep Danny Amendola from flirting with another Marshall-like record catch total. Bears 24, Rams 13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). The Cowboys have been on the road so far, and this will be a home-sweet-home scenario for Tony Romo. His receivers have been inconsistent, so this will be a chance to pound away with DeMarco Murray and set up better play-action. There are ballhawking defensive backs on both sides, but the interceptions will be thrown by Josh Freeman. In three games against the Bucs, check out Romo's combined line: 61-for-86, 908 yards, 11 TDs, no interceptions, 144.8 passer rating). Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 19.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS). Going to the Black Hole has proved to be a trap for the Black and Gold before, but that won’t happen this time. The Raiders have been unimpressive overall in the brief Dennis Allen era. The Steelers are desperate to get their running game going, and this provides a good opportunity to set up Ben Roethlisberger for big plays to Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh's swarming defense will force Palmer into mistakes. Steelers 20, Raiders 13.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN). So much for former Packers backup Matt Flynn facing off against his old No. 1, Aaron Rodgers. Instead, it's former Badger Russell Wilson against Wisconsin's favorite pro team. The Seahawks have an admirable secondary, but Green Bay's receivers are collectively better. While Rodgers will use his out-of-pocket mobility to execute downfield throws, Wilson will be chased often by Clay Matthews. Packers 27, Seahawks 20.