Dallas Cowboys 2011: Five Reasons the 'Boys Will Win the NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys are loaded with talent, but they have failed miserably in their attempts to translate that talent into postseason victories. Last season was a low point for players and fans, as the Cowboys stumbled to a horrific start, lost their starting quarterback, and ended the season at just 6-10.

The future is still bright for America's Team, however. Here are five reasons you can expect the Cowboys to rebound in 2011.

As I wrote in my USA Today article on why Garrett is the right man for the Cowboys’ head coaching job, “It isn’t what Garrett is that should have the Cowboys and their fans so excited, but rather what he will be. He’s young. He’s aggressive. He’s confident.”

Most importantly, he’s adaptable. And it is Garrett’s ability to evolve which will have the Cowboys thriving sooner rather than later.

4. The Cowboys were slightly “unlucky” in 2010.

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In my site bio, I wrote:

As a self-proclaimed “numbers guy,” I have always been fascinated by the way mathematics and statistics, if used properly, can thoroughly explain seemingly complex phenomena. Like the motion of the planets or the path of an ant, I truly believe football can be perfectly represented by numbers.

One formula that has always intrigued me is Pythagorean Win Expectation. Like many of the stats I use, it originated in baseball. When adapted to football, the formula predicts the number of wins a team “should” have given their points scored and allowed. Pythagorean Win Expectation is a far superior tool in forecasting a team’s future record than even their past record. This is because it takes “luck” out of the equation.

In football, the formula is PF^2.37/(PF^2.37 + PA^2.37). Why an exponent of 2.37? I’ll take the pragmatic stance and say “because it works.” There’s nothing “magical” about 2.37–it simply has been proven more effective at predicting future records than 2.00 or 2.50, that’s all.

When we calculate the 2010 Cowboys’ Pythagorean Win Expectation based on their points scored and yielded, we see that they “should have” had a win percentage of .440—equivalent to 7.04 wins. This isn’t significantly superior to the six wins they recorded, but it’s still interesting to know the team’s six total wins isn’t perfectly representative of how they played.

2. Tony Romo will be back and better than ever.

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Despite “poor” play in 2010, the quarterback was still on pace for a career-high 69.5 percent completion percentage, and his 94.5 passer rating was right on par with his career average. That passer rating came in spite of a pedestrian 11:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio—one of the reasons I provided him with a “B” in my 2010 Quarterback Grades.

To excel in 2011, Romo will have to improve in non-blitz situations. My recent study on Romo vs. the blitz suggested that he is a premiere quarterback in the face of pressure, but just average when teams sit back in coverage.

1. The pressure is off.

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The Cowboys have played notoriously poor in high-pressure situations. Last year, they entered the season as the favorite to win the entire NFC and participate in a “home” Super Bowl. The pressure clearly got to them.

This season, expectations are low. The ‘Boys have plenty to prove. Are they simply a collection of talented football players, or are they an elite team? They should come out firing with their backs against the wall and nothing to lose.

Nonetheless, at some point, this team will need to learn to win when they aresupposed to win. The underdog role will eventually wear off.

Will the Cowboys fold under the pressure or finally live up to their potential? For the reasons I’ve listed, I believe it will be the latter.