Turov on Timing for Monday, October 12, 2009

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 6.01 points Friday to close at 1071.49. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Last week was the third consecutive week that TOT daily traders recommendations outperformed the SPX and also the third consecutive week that TOT daily traders recommendations were profitable.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11141.22 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 612.56 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.19 to 1.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.

I expect the market to show some modest gains in the early going today, but chances are those gains will fade as the day progresses. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1072 stop but with an SPX 1074 maximum limit. Once you go long, risk 7 points to make 7 points. In other words, if the SPX advances OR declines 7 points from your entry level, close the position. If you haven’t gone long by 9:45 a.m., consider the recommendation cancelled and stand aside. And at 10:45, one way or the other, liquidate the position and move to the sidelines. So, in summary, we’re taking a small position, only if we get our price and in our timeframe, and we’re not holding it very long.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before tomorrow’s session.