Can Dynamo Douse Fire on the Road to Open Playoffs?

It’s been a bit since I last updated the blog and for that I apologize, but a family tragedy has limited the time I’ve had to sit down and write lately. That being said, its playoff time in MLS so it is time to get back into the swing of things.

Since I last posted, the Houston Dynamo have clinched advancement in the CONCACAF Champions’ League and finished the season fifth in the Eastern Conference. Last year 49 points got the Dynamo second place in the East, this year 53 points earned Houston fifth. While the Dynamo improved on its regular season performance, the road to MLS Cup will be played primarily on the road for Houston. After capping an undefeated season in its new stadium, that is not a positive for the Dynamo.

Both Chicago and Houston are “stumbling” into the playoffs. Houston was playing some of its best soccer in June and July while Chicago was playing great in July and August. However, both teams have cooled off a bit from those torrid streaks over the last month. As a result, let’s look at the some of the key match-ups in the midweek game:

Goalkeepers: Tally Hall v. Sean Johnson

Two young and promising ‘keepers square off and you really can’t do wrong with either of them. However, on the biggest stage of his career (Olympic Qualifying), Sean Johnson made a blunder that he has worked hard this year to overcome. Johnson may be a slightly better pure shot-stopper, but the margin is small next to Hall’s better positioning and experience. Hall has been strong for Houston for two years including under the intense pressure of playoff soccer last year.

Edge: Slight Edge to HOUSTON

Central Defense: Boswell and Taylor v. Friedrich and Berry

Friedrich is as battle tested as they come and Berry has put in a Rookie of the Year caliber season. Boswell and Taylor have their weaknesses, but compliment each other fairly well. It could be argued that while Geoff Cameron cleaned up a lot of messes during the first half of the season, Taylor has played better as a center back for the Dynamo in 2012 than the EPL defender.

Ashe may not be the best crosser, but his pace helps cover up a weakness in the Dynamo defense and against Patrick Nyarko he will be tested. Andre Hainault may be the MLS equivalent of Reggie Jackson after scoring another clutch goal for the Dynamo in Champions’ League play, but it seems likely that Kinnear will go with the RB of choice of late Kofi Sarkodie who has made strides since recovering from injury. Segares has been solid for the Fire the entire year. Gargan like Hainault has more experience, but Anibaba has been the choice of late for some reason despite being less reliable.

Edge: Slight Edge to Houston (if Anibaba starts — if not Push)

Central Midfield: Clark and Moffat v. Pause and Pardo

After a rusty return from Europe, the last few games Ricardo Clark has shown glimpses of his old Houston Dynamo form. Moffat was clutch in 2011 for Houston, but has struggled in 2012 with turnovers. You can’t get more experienced than the second most capped player in Mexican national team history. Pause has always been solid, but not spectacular.

Edge: Push

Outside Midfielders: Davis and OBG v. Nyarko and Alex/Fernandez

It’s hard to argue with the productivity of Houston’s dynamic duo over the last four months. Garcia is Robin to Davis’ batman. The two have combined for 12 goals and 18 assists in 2012 and when you consider that Garcia has only been here for half a season, that is ridiculous. Patrick Nyarko though is every bit as dangerous and effective as the Dynamo duo. Fernandez has been a flop since coming to MLS, but all that can be forgotten if he makes an impact in the playoffs. Alex is dangerous, but has not shown himself to be as dangerous as Davis or Garcia.

Edge: Houston

Forwards: Bruin and Carr/Kandji/Ching v. MacDonald/Oduro and Rolfe

Bruin has been hot and cold throughout the season and his temperature of late leans towards cool. You can make a case to start any of Houston’s other three options next to Bruin, but all that really means is that none of the three have solidified their place in the starting lineup. Kandji’s poor finishing and Carr’s turnovers stand out while Brian Ching isn’t a great partner to Bruin who plays similarly. Rolfe has been the catalyst for the Fire’s impressive run up the Eastern Conference standings. MacDonald serves as the big man of the group holding up play so it seems likely the cunning spider will start on the bench.

You only get three substitutions so despite Houston’s quality depth, Oduro has the most potential to change the game off the bench. We all know the cunning spider may struggle with finishing, but his pace has the potential to open the Boswell-Taylor central defense pairing. Barnes and Camargo have both shown flashes, but they have been few and far between.

Edge: Slight Edge to Chicago

Coaches: Dom Kinnear v. Frank Klopas

Kinnear’s track record speaks for itself.

Edge: Houston

Intangibles: Home Field Advantage v. Rest and Experience

Chicago is 11-3-3 at home in 2012. They have a +9 goal differential at home compared to Houston’s -12 on the road. In September when it was evident that both teams needed the game for playoff standings, the Fire thumped the Dynamo at Toyota Park. Thanks in part to a terrible job by the MLS schedule makers, Houston got the advantage of resting its starters on Saturday. Chicago on the other hand pushed hard for 90 minutes against DC United for the opportunity to skip the play-in round. If the game ends tied after 90 minutes, Houston should be able to take advantage of a tired Fire team.

Edge: Chicago

Prediction:

My gut feeling before looking at the match-ups above was a 1-0 Fire victory due to the speed of Nyarko/Rolfe combined with a poor turnover and home field advantage. But it is the playoffs and for some reason Dominic Kinnear gets his men to play their best soccer despite gut feelings and how things might look on paper. The more I think about the match, the more I think Ricardo Clark’s return to form (along with Davis and Garcia) will result in Houston dominating possession even on the road. While the Fire will have Section 8 and a rowdy holiday crowd behind them, I think Houston will score a goal to win 2-1 in extra time.

My prediction would have been totally off on that one as well. I have had a bad feeling about this match since the minute the Fire v. DCU match ended and it was evident Houston would be traveling to Chicago. Houston has been slow out of the gates frequently this year, so the first 15 minutes will be riveting. Hopefully, the Dynamo won’t concede an early goal like they did in September.

I couldn’t agree more. The men in Orange need to come out firing. I think they will control possession like they have the whole season. Now they just need to take some shots – outside the box, inside, off crosses… just take some shots, we won’t be able to beat this keeper with just a handful of them.