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USDA makes long term ag projections

Despite lower prices for many agricultural products in the near future, USDA is projecting U.S. farm income to remain historically high through 2023. Analysis for the report was conducted prior to completion of the Agricultural Act of 2014, and was based on the assumption of continuation of policies in the 2008 Farm Bill. Projections range from long-term economic growth, global production and consumption trends, global trade trends, commodity prices, farm income and more.

USDA projects global economic growth to average 3.2 percent annually over the next decade, with stronger growth projected in developing countries, including China, India, and countries in Africa and Latin America. The U.S. economic growth is projected to average 2.6 percent over the next decade. “Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports,” according to the report.

While prices for many of the major crops are projected to decline in the next few years, long-term growth in global demand, a low-valued U.S. dollar, and demand for biofuel, will hold prices for corn, oilseeds and other major crops above pre-2007 levels, according to the report.

As a result of recovering from high feed prices in recent years and drought, USDA is projecting livestock production and per capital red meat consumption to increase through 2023.

While beef production is projected to decline through 2016 as producers retain heifers to grow the overall herd, production is expected to begin increasing in 2016. USDA is projecting that beef cow numbers will increase from 29 million today to more than 33 million in 2022-2023. The total cattle inventory is projected to expand to approximately 96 million in 2023, and increasing slaughter weights add to increased beef production projections. USDA is projecting beef cattle prices to increase through 2017, then fall but increase again through 2023.

With regard to global beef trade, USDA is projecting world meat consumption to increase by about 1.9 percent annually from 2014-2023 and world meat trade to increase by 22 percent during that same period. Stagnate beef export projections from Australia resulted in the top four beef exporting nations, according to USDA, to be Brazil, India, the United States and Australia. On the import side, China and Hong Kong are projected to increase beef imports by 55 percent in the next decade as China’s middle class grows from 300 million today to an expected 640 million by 2020.