Expenditure

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what is his present estimate of the increase in defence expenditure in real terms in 1980–81 compared with 1982–83; and how this compares with the planned increase for 1982–83.

The precise level of real growth achieved will depend on final outturn. On the basis of the forecast of outturn published in Cmnd. 8494 there will be real growth in 1981–82 of about 1.5 per cent. over 1980–81. The cash provision for 1982–83 is in line with the NATO 3 per cent. real growth commitment.

Is not that estimate a twist? Is not the real increase far greater, because the Minister, instead of taking into consideration the retail price index, as every
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other Department does, has a special price index for arms, which grow more and more sophisticated and expensive every year? If the Minister had used that other method of estimation, in real terms the increase would have been £6½ billion more than it has been over the last 10 years.

Does my hon. Friend agree that the purpose of all defence spending is to ensure peace? In view of that, is it not the case that on the one hand the Government have increased our conventional capability and on the other hand they have provided for the most cost-effective way of securing peace through the provision of Trident? Is my hon. Friend satisfied that the Government are doing enough to counter the immense threat of chemical weapons from the Soviet Union?

We have already had a question about chemical weapons. Our forces are trained in measures to be taken against chemical weapons. With regard to the early part of my hon. Friend's question, it is true that, even after allowing for Trident, under our projections billions of pounds extra will be available because of the 3 per cent. increase in real terms in expenditure on conventional weapons.

To what extent has the Minister taken into account the fact that we allocate over 90 per cent. of our defence expenditure to NATO, unlike every other member of NATO? The result is that, even more than the United States and Germany, we are paymasters of NATO. Accordingly, with every item of defence expenditure that we take into account we should bear in mind that we are the highest spender in NATO.

I am not sure that I follow the exact implications of the right hon. Gentleman's question. Our defence effort is made in concert with our NATO allies. We are observing the objective, which has been set down by agreement in NATO, of a constant annual increase in real terms of 3 per cent.