The clouds are parting in southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. The clearing allows sunshine to heat the temperature, and increases the chance of severe weather. This afternoon is still not expected to be a large severe weather outbreak similar to the outbreaks in the past few days down south. However, there could definitely be scattered severe storms, with even isolated tornadoes.

The top graphic shows the clearing moving into southern Michigan. This clearing is moving north, and much of Lower Michigan from Bay City southward should have some sun in the next few hours. The sunshine, and resulting heating of the air, was one severe weather factor we were unsure would develop this afternoon.

Now that the severe weather factors are more defined for this afternoon, we can fine tune the severe weather forecast.

View full sizeThe update at 11:30 a.m. from the Storm Prediction Center expanded the area of a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Storm Prediction Center

Updated tornado forecast

The Storm Prediction Center updated the severe weather outlook at 11:34 this morning. The chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point is at two percent for a larger part of Lower Michigan now. The two percent chance is small, but it does indicate that isolated tornadoes are possible late this afternoon or evening. The tornado chance graphic shows a two percent chance of a tornado now from about Big Rapids to Saginaw southward.

View full sizeThe chance for damaging winds from thunderstorms is placed at 15 percent for late this afternoon and evening in southern Lower Michigan.Storm Prediction Center

Isolated damaging winds possible

The chance for isolated damaging winds has also been updated for late this afternoon and evening. There is now a 15 percent chance of a damaging wind gust over 60 MPH within 25 miles of any point. So again, the severe weather right now is expected to be isolated, but we will have to watch how it develops in the late afternoon.

View full sizeThere is also a 15 percent chance of one inch diameter hail within 25 miles of a given point this afternoon and evening.Storm Prediction Center

Hail is also possible

The temperatures are still cold enough aloft to make any severe storms that develop this afternoon large hail producers. This is a set up I've seen before in Michigan where we could get numerous large hail reports. In other words, if you have a good car park it in the garage.

Timing and location

Right now it looks like 5 p.m to 9 p.m would be the most likely time frame for severe weather. Our computer models indicate possible storms developing in central and southern Michigan first and then moving northeast into the Ann Arbor, Detroit, Flint, Saginaw and Thumb areas between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m.

We'll keep you updated on the severe weather chances. If you have any questions, ask them below.

MLive Meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has been forecasting Michigan weather for more than 20 years. He's been chief meteorologist at three television news stations in Michigan, and he's an avid gardener and hunter. Email him at mark@farmerweather.com and find him on Facebook at facebook.com/mark.torregrossa and Twitter @weathermanmark