The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The Barrow’s Goldeneye is the less common highland-breeding cousin of the Common Goldeneye. Climate change appears likely to push the species up in elevation and out of most of its current summer range: only 3 percent of it is stable, and available area is projected to decrease by 86 percent. Additionally, unlike most other ducks Audubon's climate model predicts that this species’ winter range will contract, and by over one half. Although the species also breeds in Iceland and Greenland, a very large majority of the world’s Barrow’s Goldeneyes live in North America, so this species could be in real trouble.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.