Question. This has been a storm for 15 days. The record is 31 days. My question is IF it went that far would it still count since it was in different basins? I am guessing it could maybe have a shot at longest traveled? Just asking. Thanks

StormingB81 wrote:Question. This has been a storm for 15 days. The record is 31 days. My question is IF it went that far would it still count since it was in different basins? I am guessing it could maybe have a shot at longest traveled? Just asking. Thanks

Yes, it would count, since the current record holder, Typhoon/Hurricane John, also moved through more than one basin (EPAC/CPAC/WPAC). IMO, Kilo won't make it to 7165 miles which is the longest traveled, also set by John.

WDPN31 PGTW 052100MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 65//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHEAST OFWAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTSTIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 40-NM DIAMETER EYE.BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THEINITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ONDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUSTPOLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREESCELSIUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THEDEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONGTHE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOTEDABOVE REMAIN UNCHANGED. THIS WILL ALLOW TY KILO TO REACH A PEAKINTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INTIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECASTTRACK.//NNNN

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WDPN31 PGTW 060900MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 67//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 33-NM RAGGED EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A 060510Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST EASTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. ADJUSTED 34-KNOT WIND RADII LARGER BASED ON THE 052305Z ASCAT DATA. B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 145-NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 48. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 03C SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE, HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RE-CURVE WELL EAST OF HONSHU. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TRACK.//NNNN

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 167.9 EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. KILO IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. KILO IS STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND ON THURSDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 190 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY-------------THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

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If Kilo wants to get strong again, it needs to do it sooner than later. With only three days left over waters supportive of holding a high-intensity storm, time is running out. Core issues have arisen once again, so I think there's a decent chance Kilo never regains major status.

WDPN31 PGTW 070900MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 71//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17-NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A 060457Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ERODING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IRREGULAR EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST EASTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE FANS OUT NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT WITH A 200-NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 03C SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TRACK.//NNNN

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At most, Kilo has 48 hours to become a major one final time. After that, Kilo will be crossing 30*N and be at the full mercy of the mid-latitudes as well as be far enough west to be tracking over Atsani's still-gnarly upwelling wake. Until then, heat content is still plenty high and shear won't be an issue due to good outflow. The only issues present until the two day window closes are the internal structural issues that have plagued Kilo ever since it hit the wall of shear while crossing the dateline and the dry air present at these subtropical latitudes that have helped to magnify the structural issues. Right now, there are probably fewer partial eyewall structures existing at various radii from the center than there have been since the dateline encounter, so if one can form a complete ring, we should be in business. Dry air still has a bit of a wrap into the circulation, which can be seen on the latest GPM 85 GHz pass (encircling turquoise band), but the magnitude isn't as great and might be in the process of being mixed out by the current convective bursts in the northern quadrant. I may be going out on a limb a bit here, but do think 100 kt is still attainable and will just barely be met before the window closes. We'll see though, Kilo has proven to be a tough storm to forecast right from the start.

WDPN31 PGTW 080900MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNING NR 75//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 03C (KILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTHEAST OFMINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS BANDING REMAINS TIGHT AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED BUT PRESENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AGREEMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. OHC AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE DESPITE THE HIGH LATITUDE. TY 03C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS OHC AND SSTS VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LOW VWS. AFTERWARDS, TY KILO WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO ETT AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY KILO WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT. TY 03C WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A MAJOR COLD CORE LOW DUE TO LOWER OHC VALES AND HIGH VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//NNNN

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