Sunday, February 7, 2010

SP Tulsian's sub Rs 50 stocks to power your portfolio

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com is bullish on Tourism Finance, Ugar Sugar and Donear Industries. He advises investors to buy into these sub Rs 50 stocks.

Donear Industries

Donear Industries is into textile and they have a very strong brand Donear Suitings for which Yuvraj Singh is the brand ambassador. The company has set up a new textile plant in Surat with an investment outlay of about Rs 220 crore for which they have gone for a borrowing of about Rs 120 crore. Prior to that it was a debt-free company and it has been doing quite. It had given bonuses in last five-years with a very high promoter stake of 90%, which the stock exchanges has asked them to reduce to 75%.

But since the Surat project of Rs 220 crore, which had gone onstream just six-months back, the company have been providing depreciation on the written down value method while all the listed companies are providing depreciation on the straight-line method. This is was because of the policy having adopted for written down value method. The depreciation burden has been quite high and that has resulted into the net loss.

If the company would have opted to provide depreciation on the straight-line method, there would have been net profit. If you see their H1 performance, they had a topline of close to Rs 115 crore in which Surat project has not contributed much – with a net loss of about Rs 5.80 crore and in this Rs 5.80 crore the depreciation element was at about Rs 17.5 crore. So if I take the cash profit element, the company had posted a cash profit of about Rs 11 crore for six-months on a equity of close to about Rs 10.40 crore.

The share has a face value of Rs 2 and now this Surat project will start contributing to the topline as well as to the bottomline. Maybe, I don’t know what would the logic will be, it may prevail upon the management to opt for the change in the depreciation policy and if they opt to do that – there would be a reversal of depreciation, which can result in a huge write back of the depreciation which can improve the bottomline.

But even if you take on a fundamental basis with a market cap of the company at about Rs 165 crore, as I said the debt is only to the extent of Rs120 crore – this company with an enterprise value of Rs 300 crore is ruling at a very low valuation. Their brand itself has been estimated in the past at about close to Rs 130-140 crore.

There is good upside. We have been seeing renewed interest coming in the textile stocks. I think if someone can take a call on this stock with six months view, one can expect at least 60% return from hereon.

Tourism Finance:

Tourism Finance is promoted by – one can call it a semi public sector undertaking (PSU) with IFCI holding 32% and 25% held by State Bank of India (SBI), Life Insurance Company (LIC) and four other insurance companies.

The company is into providing finance to tourism related projects. It has been giving a consistent performance. In fact this has not been in the news. If you look at FY09, they had an EPS of about Rs 3.6 which is likely to be maintained for FY10 as well.

The book value of this share at present is about Rs 37 and I think it is ruling at a price to book of 70% with a price of about Rs 26. We have seen all – whether it is small PSU banks or maybe financing or lending institutions to the power sector – have appreciated in the last six months by about 50-70%.

But I do not think that this has come into focus of analysts or maybe even investors. If somebody can take a call, I don’t think that there is any downside. The way we have seen a run up especially in stocks like LIC Housing and GIC Housing, this can also come on the radar.

IFCI holds a 32% stake and since IFCI is also regaining its health and again loaded with news, this could also be tagged along with the company or we may see a good restructuring or maybe even infusion of fresh funds to enlarge the level of activity.

If all those things can happen, I won’t be surprised if the company surpasses Rs 5 EPS for FY11. As I said, the book value is close to Rs 38 now which could rise to about Rs 42-43 by then. The stock has very good potential to appreciate by about 50-60% in the next six months.

Ugar Sugar:

Ugar Sugar has not participated in the run up for a simple reason that for September 2009, the company had posted a net loss. This has been scaring investors and keeping them away. The state with the most advantage in the sugar sector is Karnataka because there you have a recovery of 11.5-12% plus you are not seeing such a hue and cry for the sugarcane price as well.

All the mills, whether it is Ugar or Renuka Sugar are paying a price of about Rs 240-250 for a recovery of 11.5% which translates to an equivalent price with 10% recovery to about Rs 220.

Now this company has recently commissioned a new mill of 2,500 tonne in this season. The old mill at Ugar had a capacity of about 10,000 tcd. If you take any sugar mill in the country, I do not think that anyone will be able to exceed the production what they have done in the previous years because of the overall low production of sugar expected in the country.

However, this company is likely produce about 17 lakh bags of sugar for this season against 15.5 lakh in the previous year.

Apart from that they have 56 megawatt (MW) cogeneration capacity. Even the debt portion of the company is not very stiff. It is at about Rs 130-140 crore which has largely realized to finance the working capital. The December quarter results are likely to be quite good. The company should be able to post a profit after tax (PAT) of about Rs 36-40 crore on an equity of about Rs 11.25 crore, which is at present.

So once the results are out for the December quarter, we all know that even in the March quarter there will be more sweeteners because of the increase in prices and operation of the cogeneration plant. These two quarters can drastically change the view on the stock. I won’t be surprised if this stock reaches about Rs 35 maybe by April end in this year.

1 comment:

The depreciation in value in the textile industry can have different causes and usually happens in every country. I studied that when I travelled to Argentina. I had an apartment rental in Buenos Aires near this fabric company that produced for exportation. It is interesting to discover how different sectors are affected by the economy of the region.Cheers,Jules

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