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Serbia Inflation March 2018

Serbia: Inflation slows to below the Central Bank's target range in March

April 12, 2018

Consumer prices increased 0.1% from the previous month in March, less than February’s 0.3%, according to the Statistical Institute. Higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages drove the increase in March, more than outweighing lower prices for recreation and culture, and transport.

Inflation decelerated to 1.4% in March from 1.5% in February, coming in below the Central Bank’s target range of 3.0% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Annual average inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 2.8% in March from 3.0% in February. Core inflation—which excludes volatile items including energy, food, alcohol and cigarettes—slowed substantially to 0.8% in March from 1.3% in February.

The National Bank of Serbia’s inflation target for this year and next is 3.0% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.6% in 2018, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before accelerating to 3.3% in 2019.

Author:Edward Gardner, Economist

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At its 8 August monetary policy meeting, the executive board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to slash the key policy rate to 2.50% from 2.75%, a new record-low under the inflation targeting.

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