The good earnings news continues, and there's no reason to believe it'll change any time soon. Analysts are tempering expectations for consumer behavior in the fourth quarter, however, with confidence around the holiday season staying a bit lukewarm. Still, tailwinds for stocks remain and investors seem unfazed by the slim chance of any business-friendly policies coming out of a confused and agitated Congress.

Year-to-date (as of August 21st), the S&P 500 has gained 8.34% to 2,427. The big winners by sector are: information technology (+21.32%), healthcare (+13.03%) and utilities (+11.59%), with energy and telecommunications losing ground to the tune of -17.57% and -11.68%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to 21,671, gaining 9.66% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq reflects that sector's surge with a gain of 15.19% so far this year.

Last week's jobless claims totaled 232,000 vs. an expected 240,000, and the recent meeting of the Fed produced dovish minutes and lowered expectations for another rate hike in the near future. Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from June to July, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (due to a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings being partially offset by a 0.1% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers). Over the last 12 months, the all-items-index rose by 1.7%.

In July, new home sales dropped by a hefty 9.4% to 571,000 units.

The Consumer Confidence index, which had been revised down to 117.3 for June, rose in July to 121.1. According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, "Consumers' assessment of current conditions remained at a 16-year high (July 2001, 151.3) and their expectations for the short-term outlook improved somewhat after cooling last month."

The market price-earnings ratio stands at 23.49, down slightly from 24.85 one year ago.

Import prices rose by 0.1% in July, after a 0.2% decrease in June and a 0.1% drop in May. The price index for U.S. imports rose over the past year, increasing by 1.5%.

Recommended Reading

Many subscribers are familiar with Validea's Guru Investor blog (launched in 2008), in which we offer highlights of interesting articles and investment commentary that is helpful to investors and that we believe stands out from the daily market noise. In case you missed our recent posts, here's a short list:

There's One Investing Edge Left - And Anyone Can Capitalize On It: Our second post in a new series on quantitative and rules-based investing. Read full post

Bull Market Can Be Bolstered by Retirement Account Inflow: Barron's article on how the bull market can be bolstered by the flow of funds to retirement accounts. Read full post

Rotation Out of Bonds Might Be Coming: Bloomberg article explains the probability that funds will flow into equities "at the possible expense of debt" is increasing, despite forecasts to the contrary. Read full post

The Fed Could Cause Market Disruption: Barron's article discusses the potential role of the Fed in a bear market. Read full post

Housel on How to Stay Rich: Collaborative Fund's Morgan Housel discerns between getting rich and staying rich. Read full post

Barry Ritholtz--Market Performance Isn't Due to President: Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz debunks the notion that the stock market's record performance is tied to hopes around the president's policy agenda. Read full post

Performance Update

Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned 0.0%, while the Hot List returned 0.9%. So far in 2016, the portfolio has returned 9.2% vs. 8.9% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 238.1% vs. the S&P's 143.8% gain.

It seems that financial advisers, like individual investors, can fall prey to impulsive investment decision-making. And it can hurt their clients' pocketbooks.

After Morningstar conducted a study in which they analyzed the returns of actively managed stock and bond funds from 2003 through 2016, the firm published the following conclusion:

In short, we find, on average, there is no change in future performance following a fund-management change. Yet, investors overreact and subsequently pull money from these funds. Our findings suggest that the fund industry handles succession planning far better than investors react to such changes.

While you might have assumed that industry professionals would have the foresight to avoid knee-jerk reactions, these findings underscore how difficult it is to press the mute button on market noise. In a recent Bloomberg article, columnist Barry Ritholtz (of Ritholtz Wealth Management) addresses the tendency for humans to feed their own fiction: "This is critical for investors to keep in mind," he writes, "because our internal thought processes are so filled with potential for bias and error that unless we are vigilant, we are easily fooled by our own narratives." Therefore, while recent news and/or market events can impact an investor's mindset, it's important to avoid overweighting recent events when making investment decisions.

James O'Shaughnessy, whose philosophy inspired one of the stock screening models I created for Validea and wrote the stock market tome What Works on Wall Street, addressed the subject of emotional investing at a speaking engagement earlier this year. "We just can't help ourselves," he said. Human nature, he explained to the audience, leads us to predict, a tendency difficult to overcome and a recipe for trouble when shopping for stocks. It also conditions us to bolt when faced with fear or uncertainty. O'Shaughnessy, who completed extensive and thorough research into investment strategy, subscribed to the belief that, "disciplined implementation of active strategies is the key to performance." Investors, therefore, must be prepared for inevitable market dips and stick to their investment strategies through thick and thin.

Numerous studies and performance statistics show that many investors overweight what has happened recently. These trends include, for instance, the recent underperformance of value stocks vs. growth stocks, the outperformance of domestic stocks versus international markets, the underperformance of cyclicals and higher-beta names compared to low volatility stocks, the outperformance of large caps over small. While indeed characteristics of today's market-- extrapolating based on these trends (many of which are contrary to longer term patterns) and assuming they will continue often causes investors to chase the latest investment flavor-of-the-month and not respect the cyclicality of the market and what works over the long term.

A better approach to investing is to arrive at decisions based on concrete metrics that point to strong underlying businesses likely to stand the test of time. Don't assume, for example, that one category of stocks will go up indefinitely just because they have shown steady growth in recent months or years. Because non-U.S. stocks have underperformed, for example, isn't a good reason to disregard them. Focus on the bones of a company, what its operations reflect and whether it stands on a firm business footing.

Given the current level and volume of noise streaming from every media outlet, there's no better time to circle back to basics. What is your investment philosophy? What do you believe and what values do you hold at your core? It's important to maintain a clear understanding of your goals and objectives and stay true to them even when things get muddled.

As I consider the many gurus that have inspired my own investing approach, some of their mantras come to mind:

I have boiled down my own investing philosophy to: Follow proven strategies, stay disciplined, trust facts, and beware emotions. The important themes that emerge include the following:

Focus on facts and figures: My guru investment strategies are built on key fundamental and financial characteristics that help identify good buy prospects. Greenblatt, for example, looks at earnings yield and return-on-capital, while the late Benjamin Graham focused on price-earnings and price-book ratios as well as a company's liquidity and leverage. Value investing's modern-day champion, Warren Buffett, looks for high return-on-equity, healthy free cash flow, and consistent earnings-per-share.

Stay disciplined: No strategy will beat the market every month or even every year. If that's your goal, you might end up just jumping from strategy to strategy chasing returns or the hottest stocks. This is a recipe for buying high and selling low. If you think long-term (over a time horizon of at least five years), you'll be better equipped to endure short-term underperformance and reap the rewards of a good strategy.

Beware of emotion: We can't overstate this--it's easy to get swept up in an exciting story surrounding a stock (and buy it) or get consumed by a negative story (and sell it). But doing so without first taking a look at the numbers can lead to ill-fated actions. Good investors don't let hype influence their decisions.

In the first in a new series of blogs on quantitative investing, Validea co-founder and President Jack Forehand discusses how the human factor manifests in investing. He says, "the number one factor that reduces performance for both individual investors and professionals is emotion. Investors tend to panic when prices are down, and become euphoric when prices are up. This leads to buying and selling at exactly the wrong times."

Newcomers to the Hot List

Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT):

Essent Group Ltd. is a private mortgage insurance company. It passes the tests of my strategies based on Martin Zweig and Peter Lynch. Full details

IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP):

IPG Photonics Corporation is a developer and manufacturer of a line of fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers, diode lasers, laser systems and optical accessories that are used for various applications. It passes the test of my strategy based on Martin Zweig. Full details

State National Companies Inc. (SNC):

State National Companies, Inc. is a specialty provider of property and casualty insurance. It passes the tests of my strategies based on The Motley Fool and Peter Lynch. Full details

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (ADR) (GGAL):

Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. is a financial services holding company. It passes the tests of my strategies based on Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. Full details

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH):

LGI Homes, Inc. is a homebuilder and land developer. It passes the test of my strategies based on James O'Shaughnessy. Full details

BANCO MACRO SA (ADR)

Strategy: P/E/Growth InvestorBased on: Peter Lynch

Banco Macro SA is an Argnetina-based financial institution (the Bank) that offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, the Bank performs certain transactions through its subsidiaries, including mainly Banco del Tucuman, Macro Bank Ltd, Macro Securities SA, Macro Fiducia SA and Macro Fondos SGFCI SA. It has approximately two categories of customers, such as retail customers, including individuals and entrepreneurs and corporate customers, which include small, medium and large companies and major corporations. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments. It provides its corporate customers with traditional banking products and services, such as deposits, lending (including overdraft facilities), check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans and credit lines for financing foreign trade and cash management services.

DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider BMA a "fast-grower".

P/E/GROWTH RATIO:PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (15.66) relative to the growth rate (41.46%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for BMA (0.38) is very favorable.

SALES AND P/E RATIO:PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. BMA, whose sales are $1,801.7 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. BMA's P/E of (15.66) is considered acceptable.

EPS GROWTH RATE:PASS

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for BMA is 41.5%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is considered 'OK'. However, it may be difficult to sustain such a high growth rate.

TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:NEUTRAL

BMA is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.

EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO:PASS

This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. BMA's Equity/Assets ratio (19.00%) is very healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.

RETURN ON ASSETS:PASS

This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. BMA's ROA (4.50%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.

FREE CASH FLOW:NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for BMA (10.74%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.

NET CASH POSITION:NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for BMA (-7.42%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.

MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA)

Strategy: Price/Sales InvestorBased on: Kenneth Fisher

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of World, and Corporate and Other. The Company's product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, active driver assistance, vision, closure, and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. The Company has over 320 manufacturing operations and approximately 100 product development, engineering and sales centers in over 30 countries. It provides a range of body, chassis and engineering solutions to its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers. It has capabilities in powertrain design, development, testing and manufacturing. It offers bumper fascia systems, exterior trim and modular systems. It offers exterior and interior mirror systems. It offers sealing, trim, engineered glass and module systems. It offers softtops, retractable hardtops, modular tops and hardtops.

PRICE/SALES RATIO:PASS

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. Non-cyclical (non-Smokestack) companies with Price/Sales ratios below 0.75 are tremendous values and should be sought. MGA's P/S of 0.48 based on trailing 12 month sales, is below 0.75 which is considered quite attractive. It passes this methodology's P/S ratio test with flying colors.

TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

Less debt equals less risk according to this methodology. MGA's Debt/Equity of 31.96% is acceptable, thus passing the test.

PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:PASS

This methodology considers companies in the Technology and Medical sectors to be attractive if they have low Price/Research ratios. MGA is neither a Technology nor Medical company. Therefore the Price/Research ratio is not available and, hence, not much emphasis should be placed on this particular variable.

PRELIMINARY GRADE: Some Interest in MGA At this Point

Is MGA a "Super Stock"? NO

PRICE/SALES RATIO:PASS

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. Non-cyclical(non-Smokestack) companies with Price/Sales ratios below .75 are tremendous values and should be sought.MGA's P/S ratio of 0.48 is below .75 which is considered extremely attractive. It passes this methodology's P/S ratio test with flying colors.

This methodology looks for companies that have a positive free cash per share. Companies should have enough free cash available to sustain three years of losses. This is based on the premise that companies without cash will soon be out of business. MGA's free cash per share of 3.04 passes this criterion.

THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:PASS

This methodology looks for companies that have an average net profit margin of 5% or greater over a three year period. MGA, whose three year net profit margin averages 5.77%, passes this evaluation.

IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION

Strategy: Growth InvestorBased on: Martin Zweig

IPG Photonics Corporation is a developer and manufacturer of a line of fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers, diode lasers, laser systems and optical accessories that are used for various applications. The Company offers a line of lasers and amplifiers, which are used in materials processing, communications and medical applications. The Company sells its products globally to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), system integrators and end users. The Company's manufacturing facilities are located in the United States, Germany and Russia. The Company offers laser-based systems for certain markets and applications. Its products are designed to be used as general-purpose energy or light sources. Its product line includes High-Power Ytterbium CW (1,000-100,000 Watts), Mid-Power Ytterbium CW (100-999 Watts), Pulsed Ytterbium (0.1 to 200 Watts), Pulsed and CW, Quasi-CW Ytterbium (100-4,500 Watts), Erbium Amplifiers and Transceivers.

P/E RATIO:PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. IPGP's P/E is 27.72, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 20.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.

REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH:PASS

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. IPGP's revenue growth is 15.83%, while it's earnings growth rate is 15.70%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, IPGP passes this criterion.

SALES GROWTH RATE:PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (46.1%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (37.9%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For IPGP this criterion has been met.

The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.

CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS:PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. IPGP's EPS ($1.91) pass this test.

QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO:PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. IPGP's EPS for this quarter last year ($1.25) pass this test.

POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER:PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. IPGP's growth rate of 52.80% passes this test.

EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS:PASS

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for IPGP is 7.85%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 9.32%, 23.01%, and 50.00%. IPGP passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.

This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.

EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS:PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 25.70%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 52.80%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.

EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE:PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 52.80% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 15.70%. IPGP would therefore pass this test.

EARNINGS PERSISTENCE:PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. IPGP, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 2.82, 2.97, 3.80, 4.53 and 4.85, passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. IPGP's long-term growth rate of 15.70%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.

TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. IPGP's Debt/Equity (1.25%) is not considered high relative to its industry (54.63%) and passes this test.

INSIDER TRANSACTIONS:PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For IPGP, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 577, while insiders buying number 271). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.

ARGAN, INC.

Strategy: Price/Sales InvestorBased on: Kenneth Fisher

Argan, Inc. is a holding company. The Company conducts operations through its subsidiaries, Gemma Power Systems, LLC and affiliates (GPS), Atlantic Projects Company Limited (APC), Southern Maryland Cable, Inc. (SMC) and The Roberts Company (Roberts). Through GPS and APC, the Company's power industry services segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, operations management, maintenance, development, technical and consulting services to the power generation and renewable energy markets. Through SMC, the telecommunications infrastructure services segment of the Company provides project management, construction, installation and maintenance services to commercial, local government and federal government customers. Through Roberts, the Company's industrial fabrication and field services segment produces, delivers and installs fabricated steel components specializing in pressure vessels and heat exchangers for industrial plants.

PRICE/SALES RATIO:PASS

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. Non-cyclical (non-Smokestack) companies with Price/Sales ratio between .75 and 1.5 are good values. AGX's P/S ratio of 1.18 based on trailing 12 month sales, falls within the "good values" range for non-cyclical companies and is considered attractive.

TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

Less debt equals less risk according to this methodology. AGX's Debt/Equity of 0.00% is exceptional, thus passing the test.

PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO:PASS

This methodology considers companies in the Technology and Medical sectors to be attractive if they have low Price/Research ratios. AGX is neither a Technology nor Medical company. Therefore the Price/Research ratio is not available and, hence, not much emphasis should be placed on this particular variable.

PRELIMINARY GRADE: Some Interest in AGX At this Point

Is AGX a "Super Stock"? NO

PRICE/SALES RATIO:FAIL

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. To be considered a "Super Stock", non-cyclical (non-Smokestack) companies should have Price/Sales ratios below .75. However, AGX, who has a P/S of 1.18, does not fall within the "Super Stock" range. It does fall between 0.75 and 1.5, which is considered the "good values" range for non-cyclical companies. Nonetheless, it does not pass this "Super Stock" criterion.

This methodology looks for companies that have a positive free cash per share. Companies should have enough free cash available to sustain three years of losses. This is based on the premise that companies without cash will soon be out of business. AGX's free cash per share of 15.42 passes this criterion.

THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN:PASS

This methodology looks for companies that have an average net profit margin of 5% or greater over a three year period. AGX, whose three year net profit margin averages 9.05%, passes this evaluation.

ESSENT GROUP LTD

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth InvestorBased on: Motley Fool

Essent Group Ltd. is a private mortgage insurance company. The Company is engaged in offering private mortgage insurance and reinsurance for mortgages secured by residential properties located in the United States. Its products and services include mortgage insurance, contract underwriting, and Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance. The Company's primary mortgage insurance is offered to customers on individual loans at the time of origination on a flow basis, but can also be written in bulk transactions. Its pool insurance provides additional credit enhancement for certain secondary market and other mortgage transactions. The primary mortgage insurance operations were conducted through Essent Guaranty, Inc. which is a mortgage insurer licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as of December 31, 2016. It offers primary mortgage insurance, pool insurance and master policy. It provides contract underwriting services through CUW Solutions, LLC.

PROFIT MARGIN:PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. ESNT's profit margin of 50.92% passes this test.

RELATIVE STRENGTH:FAIL

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. Although ESNT's relative strength of 86 is below the acceptable level, yet it is very close. Keep an eye on the stock as it could move into the acceptable range.

COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR:PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for ESNT (35.09% for EPS, and 27.23% for Sales) are good enough to pass.

INSIDER HOLDINGS:PASS

ESNT's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 16.26% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is the minimum required. A high percentage typically indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS:PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. ESNT's free cash flow of $2.93 per share passes this test.

PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY:PASS

ESNT's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 48.58%, Last year: 44.53%, Two years ago: 36.96%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.

R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES:NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in ESNT's case.

CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS:FAIL

ESNT does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $27.53 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. ESNT will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.

"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH):FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider holding the shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 0.65 (ESNT's is 0.70), but initial purchases in this range are unfavorable.

The following criteria for ESNT are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING:PASS

ESNT has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. ESNT currently has 93.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.

SALES:FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. ESNT's sales of $512.8 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.

DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME:PASS

ESNT passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $22.3 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."

PRICE:PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. ESNT with a price of $39.21 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.

INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE:PASS

ESNT's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (28.63%) and last year (31.12%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.

GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S.A. (ADR)

Strategy: Contrarian InvestorBased on: David Dreman

Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (Grupo Financiero Galicia) is a financial services holding company. The Company's segments include Banking, Regional Credit Cards, CFA, Insurance and Other Grupo Galicia Businesses. Banco de Galicia y Buenos Aires S.A. (Banco Galicia) is a subsidiary of the Company. Its banking business segment represents Banco Galicia consolidated line by line with Banco Galicia Uruguay S.A. (Galicia Uruguay). It operates the regional credit cards segment through Tarjetas Regionales S.A. and its subsidiaries. Its CFA business segment extends unsecured personal loans to low and middle-income segments of the Argentine population. The Company operates the insurance segment through Sudamericana Holding S.A. and its subsidiaries. Its Other Grupo Galicia Businesses segment includes the results of Galicia Warrants S.A., Galicia Administradora de Fondos S.A. Sociedad Gerente de Fondos Comunes de Inversion and Net Investment S.A.

MARKET CAP:PASS

Medium to large-sized companies (the largest 1500 companies) should be chosen, because they are more in the public eye. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to less risk of "accounting gimmickry", and companies of this size have more staying power. GGAL has a market cap of $4,587 million, therefore passing the test.

EARNINGS TREND:PASS

A company should show a rising trend in the reported earnings for the most recent quarters. GGAL's EPS for the past 2 quarters, (from earliest to most recent quarter) 0.08, 0.82 have been increasing, and therefore the company passes this test.

EPS GROWTH RATE IN THE IMMEDIATE PAST AND FUTURE:PASS

This methodology likes to see companies with an EPS growth rate higher than the S&P in the immediate past and a likelihood that this trend will continue in the near future. GGAL passes this test as its EPS growth rate over the past 6 months (1,071.42%) has beaten that of the S&P (16.92%). GGAL's estimated EPS growth for the current year is (1,230.77%), which indicates the company is expected to experience positive earnings growth. As a result, GGAL passes this test.

This methodology would utilize four separate criteria to determine if GGAL is a contrarian stock. In order to eliminate weak companies we have stipulated that the stock should pass at least two of the following four major criteria in order to receive "Some Interest".

P/E RATIO:FAIL

The P/E of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. GGAL's P/E of 15.02, based on trailing 12 month earnings, is higher than the bottom 20% criterion (below 13.10), and therefore fails this test.

PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO:FAIL

The P/CF of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. GGAL's P/CF of 9.45 does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 7.05), and therefore fails this test.

PRICE/BOOK (P/B) VALUE:FAIL

The P/B value of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. GGAL's P/B is currently 4.29, which does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 1.05), and it therefore fails this test.

PRICE/DIVIDEND (P/D) RATIO:FAIL

The P/D ratio for a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market (that is the yield should be in the top 20%). GGAL's P/D of 384.62 does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 20.16), and it therefore fails this test.

This methodology maintains that investors should look for as many healthy financial ratios as possible to ascertain the financial strength of the company. These criteria are detailed below.

PAYOUT RATIO:PASS

A good indicator that a company has the ability to raise its dividend is a low payout ratio. The payout ratio for GGAL is 0.00%. Unfortunately, its historical payout ratio is not available. Nonetheless it passes the payout criterion, as this is a very low payout.

RETURN ON EQUITY:PASS

The company should have a high ROE, as this helps to ensure that there are no structural flaws in the company. This methodology feels that the ROE should be greater than the top one third of ROE from among the top 1500 large cap stocks, which is 17.02%, and would consider anything over 27% to be staggering. The ROE for GGAL of 33.15% is high enough to pass this criterion.

PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS:PASS

This methodology looks for pre-tax profit margins of at least 8%, and considers anything over 22% to be phenomenal. GGAL's pre-tax profit margin is 23.20%, thus passing this criterion.

YIELD:FAIL

The company in question should have a yield that is high and that can be maintained or increased. GGAL's current yield is 0.26%, while the market yield is 2.62%. GGAL fails this test.

LGI HOMES INC

Strategy: Growth/Value InvestorBased on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

LGI Homes, Inc. is a homebuilder and land developer. The Company is engaged in the design, construction, marketing and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington and Tennessee. The Company operates through five segments: the Texas division, the Southwest division, the Southeast division, the Florida division and the Northwest division. The Texas division includes homebuilding operations in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin locations. The Southwest division includes homebuilding operations in Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver and Colorado Springs locations. The Southeast division includes homebuilding operations in Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville locations. The Florida division includes homebuilding operations in Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Jacksonville locations. The Northwest division includes homebuilding operations in Seattle location.

MARKET CAP:PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. LGIH, with a market cap of $945 million, passes this criterion.

EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE:PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. LGIH, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.50, 1.07, 1.33, 2.44 and 3.41, passes this test.

PRICE/SALES RATIO:PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. LGIH's Price/Sales ratio of 1.01, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.

RELATIVE STRENGTH:PASS

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. LGIH, whose relative strength is 72, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion.

STATE NATIONAL COMPANIES INC

Strategy: Growth InvestorBased on: Martin Zweig

State National Companies, Inc. is a specialty provider of property and casualty insurance. The Company's segments include Program Services, Lender Services and Corporate. In the Program Services segment, the Company operates an issuing carrier (fronting) business to provide insurance capacity access to the United States property and casualty insurance markets. In the Lender Services segment, the Company specializes in providing collateral protection insurance, which insures automobiles held as collateral for loans made by financial institutions. The Company writes its insurance business through its insurance company subsidiaries, which include State National Insurance Company, Inc. (SNIC), National Specialty Insurance Company (NSIC) and United Specialty Insurance Company (USIC). As of December 31, 2016, SNIC and NSIC were admitted carriers licensed to write property and casualty business in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. USIC is an admitted carrier in Delaware.

P/E RATIO:PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. SNC's P/E is 16.29, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 20.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.

REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH:FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. SNC's revenue growth is 15.83%, while it's earnings growth rate is 26.04%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, SNC fails this criterion.

SALES GROWTH RATE:PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (19.6%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (17.7%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For SNC this criterion has been met.

The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.

CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS:PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. SNC's EPS ($0.31) pass this test.

QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO:PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. SNC's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.24) pass this test.

POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER:PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. SNC's growth rate of 29.17% passes this test.

EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS:FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for SNC is 13.02%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 32.14%, 6.25% and 17.39%. SNC does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.

This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.

EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS:PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 18.07%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 29.17%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.

EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE:PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 29.17% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 26.04%. SNC would therefore pass this test.

EARNINGS PERSISTENCE:FAIL

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. SNC, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.36, 0.51, 0.28, 1.01, and 1.16, fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. SNC's long-term growth rate of 26.04%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.

SANDERSON FARMS, INC.

Strategy: Value InvestorBased on: Benjamin Graham

Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business.

SECTOR:PASS

SAFM is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES:PASS

The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $340 million. SAFM's sales of $3,009.2 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:PASS

The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SAFM's current ratio of 4.97 passes the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:PASS

For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for SAFM is $0.0 million, while the net current assets are $528.5 million. SAFM passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:FAIL

Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. EPS for SAFM were negative within the last 10 years and therefore the company fails this criterion.

P/E RATIO:PASS

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. SAFM's P/E of 14.30 (using the 3 year PE) passes this test.

PRICE/BOOK RATIO:FAIL

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. SAFM's Price/Book ratio is 2.43, while the P/E is 14.30. SAFM fails the Price/Book test.

LEMAITRE VASCULAR INC

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth InvestorBased on: Motley Fool

LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. is a provider of medical devices for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease. The Company develops, manufactures and markets medical devices and implants used primarily in the field of vascular surgery. It is engaged in the design, marketing, sales and technical support of medical devices and implants for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease industry segment. The Company's product lines include valvulotomes, balloon catheters, carotid shunts, biologic vascular patches, radiopaque marking tape, anastomotic clips, remote endarterectomy devices, laparoscopic cholecystectomy devices, prosthetic vascular grafts, biologic vascular grafts and powered phlebectomy devices. Its portfolio of peripheral vascular devices consists of brand name products that are used in arteries and veins outside of the heart, including the Expandable LeMaitre Valvulotome, the Pruitt F3 Carotid Shunt, VascuTape Radiopaque Tape and the XenoSure biologic patch.

PROFIT MARGIN:PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. LMAT's profit margin of 14.19% passes this test.

RELATIVE STRENGTH:PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. LMAT, with a relative strength of 94, satisfies this test.

COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR:FAIL

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for LMAT (64.29% for EPS, and 15.01% for Sales) are not good enough to pass.

INSIDER HOLDINGS:PASS

LMAT's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 21.93% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is the minimum required. A high percentage typically indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS:PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. LMAT's free cash flow of $0.56 per share passes this test.

PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY:PASS

LMAT's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 11.88%, Last year: 9.90%, Two years ago: 5.51%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.

R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES:NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in LMAT's case.

CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS:PASS

LMAT's level of cash $24.3 million passes this criteria. If a company is a cash generator, like LMAT, it has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.

INVENTORY TO SALES:PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for LMAT was 19.40% last year, while for this year it is 19.02%. Since the inventory to sales is decreasing by -0.38% the stock passes this criterion.

ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES:PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for LMAT was 15.28% last year, while for this year it is 14.80%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.48% the stock passes this criterion.

LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:PASS

LMAT's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.

"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH):FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider shorting shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 1.30. LMAT's PEG Ratio of 1.35 is very high.

The following criteria for LMAT are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING:PASS

LMAT has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. LMAT currently has 20.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.

SALES:PASS

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. LMAT's sales of $96.4 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are fine, making this company one such "prospective gem". LMAT passes the sales test.

DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME:PASS

LMAT passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $6.3 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."

PRICE:PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. LMAT with a price of $34.21 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.

INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE:PASS

LMAT's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (34.79%) and last year (32.14%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.

Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker

Company Name

Industry

CurrentScore

ATH

ATHENE HOLDING LTD

Insurance (Life)

87%

MNST

MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

76%

MAN

MANPOWERGROUP INC.

Business Services

71%

SKX

SKECHERS USA INC

Footwear

65%

FOXF

FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP

Auto & Truck Parts

61%

HSKA

HESKA CORP

Biotechnology & Drugs

58%

CTB

COOPER TIRE & RUBBER CO

Tires

57%

HDSN

HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

Misc. Capital Goods

55%

SLF

SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC

Insurance (Life)

55%

TARO

TARO PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.

Biotechnology & Drugs

53%

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