Democrats' attorney general race may be the one to watch in Mass.

Massachusetts has not had a Republican attorney general for 45 years and, from the looks of things, there probably won't be another one for the next 45 either. Right now, the GOP has not even fielded a candidate for the position, something that might be rectified when the Republican Party holds its nominating convention next month in Worcester.

But don't count on it. It is a very steep, uphill fight. Whoever the GOP nominates for the office will face the almost impossible task of running against one of two well-qualified, well-financed Democrat Party candidates, in a heavily Democratic state.

Right now, it is the Democratic primary in September that will decide who the next attorney general will be, rather than the November election, particularly if there is no Republican candidate or the GOP candidate is nothing more than a token.

Healey

The eventual winner will succeed outgoing Attorney General Martha Coakley, who is running for governor.

The two Democrats running for attorney general are Warren Tolman, 54, of Watertown, a charismatic former legislator who has two statewide campaigns under his belt, and political newcomer Maura Healey, 42, a former assistant attorney general under Coakley who gave up her job to make the run. Both are "progressives," which is what liberals call themselves these days.

A third Democrat, state Rep. Harold Naughton of Clinton, dropped out of the race and is seeking re-election to the House.

Tolman: A party favorite

Although Healey was the first to announce her candidacy, Tolman's entry immediately made him the oddson favorite, which is reflected in the support he has received from prominent Democrats, as well as in campaign donations.

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Tolman, happily raising a family, practicing law and appearing as a commentator on television, was persuaded to run by former Attorney General Frank Bellotti, who, when he held the job, set the tone for today's professional operation of the office.

"I saw in Warren a person who could bring maturity, judgment and sound legal experience to the job," Bellotti said. "It also helps to have some political experience, which Warren has."

Tolman also has the endorsement of John Walsh, the former chairman of the Democratic State Committee, who now heads Gov. Deval Patrick's political-action committee, which means he has the quiet support of Patrick as well.

While Tolman holds a commanding lead in the polls, Healey polls surprisingly well, considering that she has not run for office before. The first real test between the two will come at the June party convention. Tolman, who has been through the process before, is favored to handily win the convention endorsement, while Healey is expected to gather the necessary 15 percent of the delegate vote that will enable her to challenge Tolman in the September primary.

Healey: Solid portfolio

Given the uninspiring race for governor among the five Democrats running for the job - and with the fiery speechmaking of Patrick a thing of the past - the convention will be looking for someone who can connect with voters and bring energy and leadership to the party.

Tolman could be that candidate. He has the potential to even overshadow the group running for governor. He has displayed that energy in the past, both when he ran for lieutenant governor in 1998 on a ticket headed by former Attorney General Scott Harshbarger, and when he ran for governor in the 2002 Democratic primary. The party delegates know him and like him, as do primary voters, even though he has lost twice.

There is a case to be made for losing. Bellotti, who was defeated for statewide office three times before he was finally elected attorney general in 1974 - where he served three terms - used to joke, "They say losing builds character.

If that's true, then I have a hell of a lot of character."

Tolman must have taken notice.

This is not to take anything away from Healey. She is an accomplished lawyer in her own right. And although this is her first run for public office, she seems to have taken to campaigning like a veteran. Healey knows how the Attorney General's Office is run, having worked there for seven years. She headed two bureaus and a dozen divisions, and was active in practically all challenging legal issues, including the state's challenge to the Defense of Marriage Act, defending the buffer zone around abortion clinics, assuring veterans access to services, housing issues and predatory lending and a host of other issues.

Healey played professional basketball in Europe in her youth, so she has some moves. She may not win this one, but she could play well enough to become rookie of the year.

Peter Lucas' political column appears Tuesday and Friday. Email him at luke1825@aol.com.

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