January 8, 2008 by Elliott Kalb
Last Sunday, the Giants' Eli Manning threw a masterpiece in leading New York to a road playoff victory in Tampa Bay. He wasn't just good. He didn't just manage the game. What he did-on the road against one of the best pass defense teams in the league-was very unexpected. Who would have thought that of the eight quarterbacks who played on Wild Card weekend, that it would be Eli to be the only one not to throw an interception? Who would have thought that it would be Eli to be the only one with a passer rating over 100?

Eli Manning completed 20-27 passes for 185 yards. He threw two touchdown passes. Consider that the Giants' depended so greatly on him. Manning had lost his starting center the week before; his starting tight end a few weeks back. Consider that Manning had thrown 59 interceptions in his previous 50 games.

The math becomes tantalizing for Eli's father, Archie. After this Saturday's two divisional playoff games, there will be only six teams remaining in the NFL playoffs. One of the six teams left will be the defending champion Indianapolis Colts, quarterbacked by Eli's brother Peyton. One of the six teams remaining will be the Giants. That means that at noon on Sunday, there will only be nine possible combinations of Super Bowl opponents (Colts-Cowboys; Colts-Giants; Colts-winner of Saturday's Packers-Seahawks game; Chargers-Cowboys; Chargers-Giants; Chargers-winner of Saturday's Packers-Seahawks game; winner of Patriots-Jaguars versus Cowboys; winner of Saturday's Pats-Jags game versus Giants; winner of Pats-Jags game versus winner of Packers-Seahawks game).

If the Colts defeat the Chargers, then the Manning family really begins to feel like they have the first few numbers of a winning lottery ticket. When the Giants take the field on Sunday afternoon, there will be just five teams left-and (if the Colts hold serve and win at home) a Manning versus Manning Super Bowl would be one of six combinations still in the running).

There is an off-Broadway show currently running, called Runt of the Litter. It's a one-man play written and performed by former NFL defensive back Bo Eason, whose better-known brother Tony was once the quarterback of the Patriots. According to the press notes, "only one thing stands in the way of (fictional) Jack Henry's lifelong dream-his brother." Now, we could have real life imitating art which imitated Eason's semi-autobiographical story.

But this runt-Eli-has done more in his first four seasons than older brother Peyton. Peyton didn't lead his team into the playoffs three consecutive years in his first four years in the league. Peyton lost his first three playoff games, not as good as Eli who won his a postseason game in his third try.

Peyton didn't win a playoff game until his sixth NFL season. Older brother has played a total of 13 playoff games in his career, and only three of them were statistically better than what Eli put up on Sunday in Tampa. Two of those games were against the defensively-challenged Broncos following the 2003 and 2004 seasons. In those two games against the Broncos, Peyton threw 9 touchdown passes against just one interception. In Peyton's other 11 playoff games, he has thrown just 9 touchdown passes and has thrown 14 interceptions. In Peyton's 13-game postseason career, his passer rating is only 83.3, a figure topped by Eli in each of his last two playoff games.

The Colts have more weapons surrounding Peyton than the Giants have to support Eli. I'd go so far to say the following: the Giants have less talent than any of the eight remaining teams. New York led the NFL in sacks, but the defensive line is no more formidable than the defensive pressure up front that the Seahawks, Chargers, Patriots, and Cowboys can provide. Can the Colts and Giants advance another week?

Here's how I see the divisional playoff games:

Seahawks at Packers:

Brett Favre goes back a long way with both head coaches. Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren was the Green Bay head coach from 1992-1998. In 1999, Mike McCarthy was the Packers' quarterback coach. The Packers found a running game late in the season, but they will go as far as Favre takes them. He'll face a ton of pressure from the Seattle defensive line.

The Seahawks led the NFL in scoring in 2005, but they're only 9th in the NFL in 2007. Here's why. In 2005, the Seahawks scored 29 rushing touchdowns. This year, they scored just 9 rushing touchdowns. The Packers have to stop Matt Hasselbeck.

I was wrong-dead wrong-last week regarding the Seahawks. I think they match up well with the Packers and have the talent and experience to win on the road.

Jaguars at Patriots:

A horseracing handicapping guide lists the following:

1. Form
2. Ability
3. Class
4. Race Conditions
The Jaguars are in fine form, having "raced" last Saturday in peak condition. Do they have the ability to beat the Patriots? What are they capable of doing, and what are they capable of doing in New England? I believe the Jaguars cannot handle the step up in class. They raced against this class of competition only twice this year, and lost both times against the better Colts.

Jacksonville showed a lot of poise coming back against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers became too conservative in protecting a late lead. Their first-year coach, Mike Tomlin, made some mistakes and decisions that Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick won't make. I love the Patriots in this game. They've had two weeks to work on their defensive shortcomings against the Giants.

Chargers at Colts:

The Chargers took a 16-0 lead in the first quarter against the Colts on November 11, and led 23-0 early in the second quarter. The Colts' Adam Vinatierri missed a pair of field goals (a 42-yard attempt at the end of the first half and a 29-yard attempt at the end of the game) that could have won the game for the Colts. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions. It was a bizarre game, and not likely to be repeated by Vinatierri and Manning.

Manning has too many choices. Reggie Wayne led the NFL in receiving yards. Joesph Addai is coming off a 12 touchdown season, and a superlative Super Bowl performance. This one goes to Indianapolis.

Giants at Cowboys:

In the season opener, Tony Romo threw four touchdowns and 345 yards against the Giants. The Cowboys put up 45 points. In Week 11, Romo threw four more touchdowns against the Giants and led his team to a 31-20 victory. Dallas swept the Giants, by scoring 76 points in the two games. That's a tall order for New York to stop. That is, unless the MVM (Most Valuable Manning) steps up one more time. The Giants haven't lost on the road since the season opener in Dallas.

When in Romo-land, do as the Romo-man does. What the heck, let's pick an upset. The Giants will find a way to win the game, and need at least 38 points to do so.

It's unlikely, but Archie Manning might get his wish of a New York-Indianapolis Super Bowl. In that case, Eli's lifelong dream might have just one roadblock-his brother Peyton. It's not the storyline of the perfect team and the perfect record. It's the story of the runt of the litter.

I've always said the NFL is becoming the high end version of the WWF. the refs (and the NFL) will have to do a brilliant job of disguising their love for the marquee match ups they are hoping for. We can overcome the obvious love fest for the Archie clan by sticking to our strengths. Bring the Defense strong and stay away from questionable situations because I guarantee calls are not going to go our way