Syria: prospects and solutions

The optimal outcome of the conflict in Syria is for
democratic elections to take place and the regime to step down. But what are the real prospects of this happening?

A Syrian child evacuated from the embattled Syrian city of Aleppo during the ceasefire arrives at a refugee camp in Rashidin, near Idlib, Syria. Picture by STR AP/Press Association Images. All rights reserved.Right now, the situation in Syria seems hopeless. As Eastern
Aleppo passes into government control the Assad regime has agreed for
UN observers to enter the city to oversee the evacuation; an
unexpected concession and a small cause for optimism. The people of
Aleppo have undoubtedly been experiencing a major humanitarian
tragedy, and suffering beyond measure as a result of Russian and
Syrian bombardment, as well as the actions of Iranian militias who
apparently
killed up to 83 civilians since the bombardment ended.

It should be mentioned that rebel groups have also been subjecting
civilians in Western Aleppo to major
human rights abuses, with shelling aimed at civilian
infrastructure that has claimed numerous innocent lives.

It is unclear where Syrian public opinion is regarding Assad. What
is clear is that there were peaceful uprisings in various parts of
Syria in 2011, and these were brutally crushed by the regime, paving
the way for the country to descend into violence and destruction.
Indeed, it is certainly not only extremists who are opposed to the
regime; peaceful
protests have continued to occur intermittently throughout the war,
despite the ongoing chaos. The optimal outcome of the conflict is for
democratic elections to take place and the regime to step down, but
what seems more likely is that the country will break up into
different regions under different forms of governance.

Indeed, it seems as though there are few ‘good guys’ left in
the Syrian civil war; the armed rebel groups in Aleppo consist mainly
of hardline Islamist factions who certainly do not have a democratic
vision in mind for Syria. The only rebel group that still maintains
high moral standards seems to be the Syrian Democratic Forces, a
secular, left-wing alliance of Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian, Armenian,
Turkmen, Circassian and Chechen militias whose aim is the
establishment of a democratic state. Two factions in this alliance
that are worthy of praise and admiration are the Kurdish YPG and YPJ
militias, the latter of which is an all-female anarchist collective.
These two groups have been major players in the Rojava Revolution,
battling ISIS and other Islamist factions to establish a
semi-autonomous region in Northern Syria founded on democratic
confederalism, eco-socialism and feminism.

What
is clear is that there were peaceful uprisings in various parts of
Syria in 2011, and these were brutally crushed by the regime, paving
the way for the country to descend into violence

The main armed groups operating in Aleppo, on the other hand, are
quite different; they are primarily the
al-Nusra Front, Jaysh
al-Islam and Ahrar
al-Sham, all virtually indistinguishable from al-Qaeda. AThese
groups have employed tactics such as torturing
captives, murder,
as well as abducting
civilians and holding them
in cages. It is true that there may be other, smaller rebel
groups based in Aleppo with different ideologies, but their
existence, if confirmed, would be inconsequential. Up until 2015, it
was still possible to refer to a “moderate opposition” in Syria
operating under the banner of the Free Syrian Army. Yet, this group
was accused of atrocities by Human Rights Watch, including the use
of child soldiers, using schools as military bases and torturing
and executing captives, but its stated
aim was still the establishment of a democratic state. However,
this faction appears to have collapsed or at least has been severely
weakened. Rami Jarrah, a prominent Syrian activist and co-founder of
the ANA Press news outlet, declared
in 2015 that there “is no such thing as the Free Syrian Army”.
The same year, Al Jazeera reported
that the group has been “decimated by desertions” and that its
power has waned “dramatically” owing to its lack of structure and
its refusal to participate in negotiations.

The fragmentation of any structured moderate opposition to the
Assad regime has been exploited by various al-Qaeda offshoots
currently engaged in a brutal war with the regime. several
of these
groups are backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, and consist
of both native Syrians and outsiders. It is unclear how many rebel
factions the western powers are now arming and financing; from 2012
onwards, arms were flowing
from the US to the Free Syrian Army with
the direct participation of the UK, while the Harakat Hazzm group
was also armed by the US. Both groups have since virtually
disbanded, with members from Harakat Hazzm joining the al-Nusra
Front and the Levant Front, both al-Qaeda offshoots.

It is highly likely that American weapons, funnelled
into Syria with the assistance of the UK, are now in the hands of
these extremist factions. Reports emerged as
early as 2014 showing al-Nusra fighters, whose ideology is
similar to that of ISIS, using American-made weaponry. The following
year a rebel commander told
CBS News that a fellow commander of the 70 US-trained fighters, had
given “half of his American weapons to al-Nusra”. Moreover, the
US Central Command admitted
in 2015 that arms supplied to the New Syrian Force, a
rebel group that no longer exists, had been handed over to the
al-Nusra Front.

However, alongside this ongoing support for the rebels, the US and
the UK have also been tacitly supporting the Assad regime by bombing
territories controlled by ISIS. The US has gone a step further by
targeting
various al-Qaeda leaders and has even
indicated in the past that it would be willing to partner with
Russia, Assad’s most crucial backer, in a joint bombing
campaign aimed at ISIS. The Assad regime, Russia and Iran have been
warring with these various factions on the ground, with Britain and
the US prolonging the conflict by coordinating with Saudi
Arabia and Jordan
to support the rebels, while simultaneously helping to preserve the
regime. Meanwhile, the Syrian people have been suffering untold
misery and devastation.

the US and the UK were
close enough with Assad to be able to render
people to his torture chambers

There are not many good options in front of us here in Britain;
the limited steps we could take are to push for the establishment of
humanitarian corridors and ceasefires in areas under bombardment,
lobby the Assad regime and the Russians to permit humanitarian
aid-drops, take in as many refugees as possible and press the British
government to open up information about its covert operations in
Syria to public debate and scrutiny.

Moreover, any direct attempts at regime change in Syria could
possibly result in a nuclear
holocaust. Right now we should use our diplomatic influence to
try to limit the destruction. Our strategy of bombing ISIS in Syria
is also plainly not working; there have been increased attacks in
Europe, civilians are
being slaughtered and ordinary
Syrians are undoubtedly being radicalised by our bombs. We should
offer logistical support (and possibly military aid) to the ones on
the ground who are making a difference - namely the Kurdish forces,
who are in the process of combatting ISIS in Rojava and could do the
same thing in Raqqa. There have been hesitant steps in that
direction, but a lot more is needed. Other than that, there is not
much that we can do.

About the author

Blogger, activist and member of Amnesty International and Reprieve. You can visit his blog and follow him on twitter @irfan_c98

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