Forecast: Houston to gain 18,200 private sector jobs in 2011

Published 6:30 am, Monday, December 13, 2010

Growing demand for engineering, warehousing and transportation services should spur private sector job creation next year, while budget woes will force government agencies to pare their payrolls, resulting in a net gain of 18,200 jobs, according to an estimate by the Greater Houston Partnership.

That represents a year-over-year increase of 0.7 percent, said Patrick Jankowski, the organization's vice president of research, who gave the Chronicle an early look at the data before partnership officials and several industry experts unveil a more detailed economic forecast on Wednesday.

Next year will be better than this year, said Jankowski, who estimates that Houston area employers will end up creating 12,000 jobs in 2010.

And it will be significantly better than 2009, when area employers cut 102,000 jobs.

"Our foot is on the gas pedal, but the gas pedal isn't pressed to the floor like it was in 2006 and 2007," he said, referring to the area's most recent boom years.

The partnership expects the private sector to create 23,300 jobs next year, a 1.1 percent gain from this year, Jankowski said. The rise in jobs will be felt throughout the economy with two exceptions: construction and energy, Jankowski said.

Houston has a glut of unsold homes, and with government budgets tight, there will likely be less money for highway and infrastructure construction, he said.

On the energy front, companies that service exploration and production companies face some real challenges because of delays in Gulf of Mexico drilling permits following this year's oil spill.

On the plus side, however, Houston is benefiting from a backlog of engineering projects such as work on chemical plants and gas processing plants, he said. Much of the work is for overseas clients.

More freight tonnage is moving through Houston, which is also helping the local economy.

"If we're bringing more stuff in through Galveston, Freeport, Texas City, the Port of Houston and the airports, when that stuff moves, someone has to pick it up and take it somewhere," he said.

But offsetting some of the private sector gains, according to the partnership, will be the loss of 5,100 public sector jobs as all levels of government and school districts cut back. That represents a drop of 1.4 percent.

These losses won't be outright layoffs as much as attrition, as the public entities don't replace employees who retire or quit, or don't renew contracts, Jankowski said.