Executive summary

'Shifting the Curve', the first report by the First Minister's
Independent Advisor on Poverty and Inequality, recommended that the
Scottish Government commission a wide ranging literature review of
the research concerning young people's life chances. This report
takes forward that recommendation by reviewing what we know about
the transition to adulthood in Scotland. The review focuses
primarily on 'young adults' aged 16 to 24, and their transition
from school to adulthood. However, recognising that the foundations
for this transition are laid earlier in the school years, outcomes
for 'early adolescence' (age 11 to 15) are also considered. The
transition to adulthood for young people today - finding stable
employment, setting up one's own home and forming a family - is
seen as complex, non-linear and taking longer to complete.

Life chances for young people in Scotland
today

The first section of the report considers what we know about the
life chances of young people in Scotland across the following broad
topics: poverty, wealth and financial capability; housing
circumstances; employment and labour market outcomes; education and
training; and health and wellbeing.

The poverty rate for young adults (16-29) in Scotland in 2015/16
was higher than for other groups of adults. Younger households are
more likely than older households to not manage well financially,
to have no savings and to have much lower wealth. To some extent,
this is to be expected at this life stage: younger people tend to
have lower earnings, as they are more likely to be in entry level
jobs, and they have also simply had less time to accumulate wealth.
However, there is evidence that wealth has been distributed away
from younger people in the
UK, and that a reduction
in house ownership among young people is key to this.

Since the millennium, there has been a shift towards younger
households living in the private rented sector or with their
parents rather than owning with a mortgage. The evidence suggests
that the size of deposit required has been the primary barrier to
owner-occupation, rather than the cost of servicing a mortgage.
Rising house prices through some of this period, along with low
pay, insecure work and difficulty accumulating wealth, have
exacerbated this barrier to the housing market for younger
households. While the flexibility of private renting is attractive
to some groups, the insecurity is problematic for others,
affordability is an issue, and low-income households may be
especially vulnerable in the private rental sector.

Being unemployed when young leads to a higher likelihood of
long-term 'scarring' in later life in terms of employment, pay,
life chances and health. The literature also highlights that
working lives are commonly beginning later, as young people stay in
education for longer, and often involve having a variety of jobs
before settling into long-term careers. Youth employment rates in
Scotland compare relatively well internationally. However,
unemployment is higher among young adults compared to older working
age adults, and young adults' employment was particularly affected
by the recession. Young adults are more likely to experience low
quality employment, including low pay and insecure work. Moreover,
being better qualified is less of a guarantee of better-paid work
than in the past. There is evidence to suggest that a structural
level change is happening, where young adults today are
experiencing disadvantage in the labour market in a way that is new
to the current generation. There is also a risk that those with low
or no qualifications will be more disadvantaged than previous
generations, as the demand for skills increases.

While education is less of a guarantee of quality employment
than it once was, educational attainment is still a key driver of
access to the labour market. Levels of attainment of school leavers
have generally been improving in Scotland. Results for literacy and
numeracy in the broad general education phase, however, declined
slightly in the most recent surveys. Looking at post-school
transitions, school staying on rates have improved, and the
proportion of school leavers classed as being in a 'positive
destination' has increased. Slightly under a quarter of school
leavers moved into further education in 2014/15, while just over a
third moved into higher education, the majority at university.

As would be expected, young adults generally report better
physical health than older age groups. Mental health indicators for
children, young people and adults in Scotland have been generally
stable over the past decade. However, 16-24 year olds are more
likely than older age groups to self-report having ever
self-harmed. Mental wellbeing is found to deteriorate with age
during early adolescence. In international comparisons of young
people's health and wellbeing, Scotland's relative performance also
weakens throughout the early secondary phase across many
indicators. In terms of risky health behaviours, rates of tobacco
and alcohol use have fallen among young adults and early
adolescents in recent years. Rates of teenage pregnancy and youth
offending have also declined over the last decade.

The impact of disadvantage and protected characteristics on
life chances

The second section of the report explores what the available
evidence tells us about how young people's life chances are shaped
by area deprivation and other forms of disadvantage, and protected
characteristics.

Gender

Inequality of caring responsibilities impacts on women's
experience of work from early adulthood. Economic inactivity rates
for young women in Scotland are substantially higher than those for
young men (while young men have higher unemployment rates). A
gender pay gap exists from early in working life, because women are
more likely to be in low-paid, low quality work. Continued gender
segregation in subjects studied at school and beyond is associated
with gender segregation in the labour market, with 'feminised'
sectors tending to be low paid.

There is a gender gap in educational attainment, with girls
outperforming boys at most stages. Overall, young women are
slightly more likely to be participating in education, training and
employment than young men. Young women are more likely to be
participating in education, and particularly higher education,
while a higher proportion of young men are in employment. The
literature finds that young women who leave school early with poor
qualifications are likely to face worse labour market outcomes than
young men with similar characteristics.

Young women report lower levels of life satisfaction and
wellbeing than young men. They are also more likely to exhibit
signs of a possible psychiatric disorder and self-report higher
levels of self-harm. The evidence indicates that this increase in
mental health issues among young women manifests earlier in
adolescence. Analysis of data for adolescents found that, while
overall mental health and wellbeing scores have remained fairly
constant over time, 15 year old girls report much poorer mental
health and wellbeing than other groups.

Young people from deprived areas

School staying on rates and levels of attainment are strongly
patterned by area deprivation, although the gaps between the most
and least deprived have decreased slightly in recent years. The gap
in educational attainment starts in the early years and widens at
each stage of the education system. But there is evidence that
schools can make a major difference in children's progress. Those
who live in more deprived areas are less likely to enter positive
destinations than those from less deprived areas, although the gap
has been closing in recent years.

Young people from the most deprived areas are more likely to go
on to study at college and less likely to go on to university than
those from the least deprived areas. In addition, those who do go
to university are less likely to go to more prestigious
universities. Young people from the most deprived areas are also
more likely to experience fragmented post-school transitions than
those from the least deprived areas: they are less likely to stay
on at school, and more likely to experience multiple post-school
transitions, to be unemployed when they leave school, or to move
into a short-term training programme.

Young people in the most deprived areas fare worse on several
aspects of health and wellbeing. Among adults and adolescents,
poorer mental health is associated with greater socioeconomic
disadvantage. There is also a strong correlation between
deprivation and tobacco use and teenage pregnancy.

Ethnicity

Unemployment rates for working age adults from 'Indian',
'Pakistani/Bangladeshi' and 'Black/Black British' groups are higher
than for 'White' groups. Research suggests that minority ethnic
people with good qualifications face greater barriers to finding
work which matches their qualifications, compared with the majority
white population. Minority ethnic groups are also more likely to be
in low-paid work than 'White' groups, and some minority ethnic
groups face a pay gap compared to 'White' groups. Pupils from most
minority ethnic groups have higher educational attainment than
pupils from 'White' groups. Minority ethnic young people have a
higher rate of participation in education, training and employment
than the national average. They are more likely to continue in
education, particularly higher education, than their 'White'
counterparts, and less likely to pursue work-based vocational
training.

Disability

Compared with all young adults, those who are disabled are more
likely to be unemployed. Disabled adults also experience pay gaps
compared to those without disabilities. Research finds that, even
when other factors such as qualification levels are taken into
account, disabled adults are more likely to be workless than
non-disabled adults. Pupils with additional support needs have
lower educational attainment levels than those without additional
support needs. Disabled young people have a substantially lower
rate of participation in education, training or employment than
those who are not disabled. And research finds that disabled young
people are more likely to be offered a more limited range of
education and training opportunities than other young people, often
with inaccurate assumptions made about capabilities.

Caring responsibilities

Disability and ill health also have an impact on young people's
life chances through caring responsibilities. Of those aged 16-24,
9% of young men and 12% of young women are estimated to be carers.
Fewer carers report having good health, compared with non-carers,
and the more care someone provides, the less likely they are to
report good health. Young carers (aged under 25) are more likely to
report having a long-term condition or disability than non-carers.
Although there appear to be wellbeing benefits for those caring for
up to 4 hours per week, unpaid caring is a significant predictor of
poor mental wellbeing and the presence of possible psychiatric
disorder. Young carers are more likely to report having a mental
health condition compared with those who are not carers.

Care experience

There is evidence of particularly poor outcomes for young people
who are 'looked after' or 'care leavers'. Care leavers are at a
higher risk of experiencing long term unemployment or fractured
employment routes. Young people leaving care are also
overrepresented in the homeless population. Looked after young
people tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than
those who are not looked after. These differences are, in part,
linked to the fact that looked after young people tend to leave
school at younger ages. Looked after children are less likely to go
on to positive destinations than school leavers in general,
particularly higher education. Looked after children and care
leavers generally experience poorer health than their peers. Young
female care leavers are more likely to experience early pregnancy
than those who are not care leavers. A third of young offenders
identified as having been in care at some point in their life.

Conclusion: key issues young people in Scotland are
facing

The review concludes by identifying eight areas of potential
concern for the life chances of today's young people:

1. an increasing proportion of young adults are living in the
private rental sector or with their parents, and fewer are able to
save for a deposit to buy their own home

2. young adults are particularly likely to be in low quality
employment compared to older age groups and to past generations

3. for a significant minority of young adults labour market
entry and labour market progression are major challenges

4. young people, particularly those not going directly to
university, are having to negotiate increasingly complicated
transitions from school into employment

5. there is continued gender segregation in subjects studied
during education and training, and in the labour market

6. educational attainment is persistently low for some groups of
school leavers

7. there is some evidence of growing mental health issues for
young people, particularly young women

8. the persistence of health inequalities and slower declines in
rates of certain risky health behaviours in the most deprived areas
compared to the least deprived areas.