Publications

Serbia’s Sustainable Development: How are we doing?

Swiss Government

Year: 2018

The brochure “Serbia’s Sustainable Development: How are we doing?” is prepared within the project “Preparatory Project for a Society-wide Dialogue Platform on SDGs for Serbia” supported by the Swiss Government . Brochure represents a useful guide through Serbia’s most important sustainable development challenges and the strengths it should build on to accelerate its development and put it on a sustainable path.

Serbia 2009-2016: Real sector performance and competitiveness– some stylized facts and open questions

HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation

Year: 2018

The study presents the stylized facts of Serbia’s post-crisis export growth – as the key aspect of its sustainable growth and competitiveness, against the backdrop of its broader GDP growth, focusing on a few industries that show the greatest promise for further competitiveness and growth. After a brief review of Serbia’s historical growth performance, it focuses on the period since 2009, and the takeoff in exports that we have seen since. The analysis is conducted not only by industry, but also by company size and ownership, both services, manufacturing overall and for the selected industries.

Serbia sustainable development issues: A baseline review

The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)

Year: 2018

The present document is a baseline review of Serbia’s human development and environmental challenges as well as the assets and limitations it faces in advancing towards attainment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). It provides background information for the design of a society-wide dialogue to help shape Serbia’s nationalization of the SDGs in line with its commitment to the UN 2030 Agenda. The document focuses on those SDG dimensions that CEVES consider key for Serbia’s human development and it does not address existing policy goals or options, nor their implementation.

German Corporation for International Cooperation GmbH (GIZ)

Year: 2017

Study aimed to map institutional and legal barriers that youth face when starting their businesses in Serbia. Much like their peers worldwide, youth in Serbia are faced with numerous challenges when entering the labor market. Figures from the Serbian labor market show a dire situation for young people, since the unemployment rate of this segment of population is almost twice that of the general unemployment rate. Starting a business is one solution for those inclined towards entrepreneurship – and the percentage of such individuals among youth is 36%, higher than in the general population. However, the share of those who actually start a business is significantly lower. Education as obvious barrier for youth activism and developing skills was not subject of this study.

What is our health like? System of indicators for social dialogue on health and health care system of Serbia

Foundation for Open Society

Year: 2017

This research aimed to establish an independent monitoring of the quality of the work of the health care system of Serbia, which is, however, part of an even broader CEVES’s program aimed at strengthening the monitoring of the quality of work and the organization of public authorities. The project created direct link towards the Sustainable Development Goals, specifically Goal 3 – Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.
Main project output is baseline report that prioritizes a set of indicators and compares the observed data in Serbia with the situation in the selected countries, so that a sufficiently reliable assessment can be obtained, yet sufficiently easy to communicate to the public about the state of health of the citizens of Serbia. The research implied the preparation of preliminary baskets of indicators (quality of outcomes, results, processes and efficiency – system of protection in Serbia) as well as assessment of the weight of each of them.

Development potentials index of tradable sectors

Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia (CCIS)

Year: 2016

The objective of the assignment was to assess performance and competitive potentials of tradable sectors in Serbia’s economy, through an innovative tool developed by CEVES – Development Potentials Index (DPI). The specific goal was to create an innovative and comprehensive tool that would provide better insight into tradable sector competitive patterns in Serbia. DPI results made a foundation for the selection of four priority sectors by Ministry of Economy.

DPI represents a composite index that uncovered detailed performance and competitiveness patterns of all tradable sectors in Serbia. This analysis was primarily based on quantitative analysis: 114 tradable sectors were assessed with 120 indicators of different weights; 6 years observed period after the strike of the global crisis in 2009; 80.000 companies detailed performance analysis, international competitiveness product analysis on 110 foreign markets, etc. DPI was consisted of nine pillars: (1) general performance, (2) export performance, (3) sustainable performance, (4) growth potential, (5) potential for spill-over effects, (6) sophistication potential, (7) employment creation, (8) investment attraction, and (9) encouragement of entrepreneurship and development of micro and small enterprises. The analysis covered as well: 1) economic impact of global commodity (oil, gas, coal, iron, steel, copper, aluminum, lumber, agribusiness) on key performance indicators of affected sectors in Serbia’s economy; 2) in addition to rankings of individual sectors, rankings of the most important value chains were also produced, in order to assess the performance and functionality of a sector surrounding and its ability to develop in those conditions.

Quarterly monitor of economic trends and policies in Serbia

FREN

Year: 2013-2015

Originally CEVES’ flagship product and today FREN’s, has set new standards in the local economic discipline by offering consistent and thoroughly assessed data on all major macroeconomic aggregates, and providing a thorough analysis of the processes related to economic growth, and monetary, external and financial developments.

Case study: Fabricated metal products

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

Year: 2015

The main goal of this case study is to provide a sound knowledge about the performance and competitiveness of a selected industry, and to determine the reasons explaining that performance and competitiveness, by focusing on the identification and understanding of critical success factors (particularly industry-specific). The identification and understanding of hidden potentials and factors is the first step in the process of the creation of required industry-specific knowledge, which can provide essential information to key stakeholders and policymakers in order for industry to prosper. The study identifying the critical success factors and most binding constraints along value chain of fabricated metal products sector and to create a detailed SWOT matrix which should serve as a baseline for creation of a sectorial action plan.

Entrepreneurship in Serbia – necessity or opportunity?

European Fund for the Balkans and The Balkan Trust for Democracy

Year: 2014

The aim of this brochure is to draw attention to the potential and opportunity that lies in entrepreneurship, worldwide, but especially in Serbia. The report believes that it is important to rely more on energy, creativity, the engagement of hundreds of thousands of people who are today entrepreneurs, or who would be eager to become one if society supports

The quality of Serbia’s economic statistics: A user’s perspective report

British Embassy Belgrade

Year: 2014

This study aimes to emphasize the poor quality of statistical data in Serbia, especially on sectorial level, in terms of their practical application in the analysis of performance and consequentially decision-making itself and make recommendations to overcome them. The project systematically analyzed key economic series, comparing and contrasting related variables and relying mostly on economic logic to show key gaps and problems. The focus was to compare GDP by production and expenditure structure with source information, deflators and price series, as well as delve as deeply as possible into formal and informal knowledge about the assessment methodologies applied to explain the inconsistencies. Ultimately, the project identified some key fundamental assumptions that are regularly being made and that probably do not adequately reflect Serbia’s reality. The key audience included policymakers in the Ministry of finance, the Fiscal Council, and the IFIs.

SME growth opportunities and how policies and banks miss them

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

Year: 2014

The purpose of this study is to assess the access to finance of Serbian SMEs. It is also a foundation for further research aimed at developing policy recommendations that could help enhance the SME sector’s performance, growth and their contribution to the overall value added. Expansion and development of the SME sector is both the opportunity and necessity for Serbian economy. This report has two components, first that is focused on demand side and second, that is focused on supply side. The first component aims at shedding the light on the structure, performance and growth potential of Serbia’s SMEs, a very large segment of Serbia’s economy that is little understood, and has been relatively neglected by both policymakers and the public. The purpose of the second component is to understand and analyze bank SME funding practices in order to identify if there are opportunities to expand funding to the mutual benefit of both banks and SMEs while at the same time contributing to the country’s growth.

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

Year: 2014

Objective of the assignment was to conduct the survey of the company in order to identify the key factors underlying the performance of enterprises in Serbia. The research covered ten general topic areas of private sector operations in attempt to broadly identify and assess what was the motive for firms’ establishment, what firms do, how they are structured and run, what is their corporate governance, whom they interact with and how they form their expectations are for the future. The survey covered 1,062 face-to-face structured interviews, prepared by CEVES and executed by IPSOS Strategic Marketing.

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

Year: 2014

This report assesses the performance and sheds light on the most promising industries, with the potential to drive sustainable growth and development of Serbia’s economy through enhanced international competitiveness and exporting activities. In addition, this research also shed light on industries that have obvious market potential but struggle to achieve their goals and realize this potential full potential.

The research represents CEVES foundational research of Serbia’s real sector economy, and most importantly, it is the one of a kind in Serbia. By this study, CEVES set the foundation and contributed to the evidence-based policy making in Serbia. The particular result was shedding light on good performing SME-based sectors, which were at the time significantly underrated. This research brought series of innovation in sectors analysis in Serbia: introducing the performance analysis of average/median company in the sector (not only overall sectors performance), bridging different international classifications that enabled joint analyses of general firms’ performance and international performance etc. CEVES invested time in cleaning SBRA database and identifying bona fide companies (separating those that conduct “real” businesses, and earn from it, from those uncreditworthy and/or with irregular reporting) and conducted assessment only on those. The assessment included preparing of series of different financial and international performance indicators; which were statistically analyzed by multivariate Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

NALED

Year: 2008

The aim of this analysis is to evaluate direct and indirect costs caused by certain administrative procedures. Also, in the study there is calculation of the costs of the entire economy that arise as a result of the execution of certain administrative ones obligation.

Assessment of the barriers for the investments in South Serbia

World Bank

Year: 2008

This report deals with the problem of attracting investments in the Jablanica and Pcinja districts. The aim of the study is to establish the reasons why the inflow of investment in Jablanica and Pcinja region is unsatisfactory, as well as to propose measures to improve this situation. Jablanica and Pcinja are two most economically undeveloped districts in Serbia, with living standard below the republican average. As a key problem that prevents acceleration economic growth, increasing employment and improving the living standards of citizens, low capitalization of the region was identified, insufficient number of economic entities and insufficient inflow of investments. . The report is the result of a fundamental research work, which included a detailed analysis of relevant literature, statistical analysis data, conducting surveys in the region, interviews with relevant actors in the region (including representatives of local economy and representatives of local authorities), talks with relevant representatives of the republican government, talks with associations representing them large domestic and foreign investors, and the analysis of the survey in which local companies and members of local government took place.

Understanding Belgrade services sector: Report on survey results

Open Society Fund

Year: 2007

This research aim to understand and describe the new service sector in Serbia. In global economy, financial capital is being increasingly directed toward countries abundant in knowledge and skills. Knowledge is fueling economic growth and development in every region of the world. Rapid advances in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) provide the means for developing countries to accelerate their progress or even leapfrog stages of development, which would enable their integration into the global economy. The “new” service sector, particularly knowledge based services, may well have been booming in Serbia over the past few years. FREN’s and CEVES’ research is aims to fill a great gap in understanding the new services sector in Serbia. Detailed and rigorous survey of the services sector in Belgrade – bound to account for the lion’s share of the new service sector in Serbia – assesses the structure, dimensions, key development factors and development potential of the service sector in Serbia. To seize the opportunity and transform Serbia into a knowledge economy, carefully designed policies are needed, aimed at enhancing human capital and developing appropriate infrastructure. This research provides policy makers and businesses with consistent information required in order to build on Serbia’s strengths and remove obstacles.

Review of economic indicators for CRDA SEDP project

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

Year: 2007

The aim of this report is to analyze the economic part of two USAID projects, Community Revitalization through the Democratic Action (CRDA) and Serbia Economic Development Project (SEDP) USAID projects, and prepare them for formal evaluation. Special emphasis will be placed on analysis of the characteristics and adequacy of the chosen indicators, the contents and designs of databases used for monitoring purposes (Web-PRS and SEDP tracking database), their suitability for the evaluation purposes and on preliminary conclusions about the impact of SEDP and CRDA economic programs.

Health care system and spending in Serbia

Open Society Institute

Year: 2006

Health care sector in Serbia was one of the sectors that were affected by the waste set of reforms commonly branded as a transition process. One of the biggest problems at the beginning of health reform was a deficit of reliable data that would build the baseline and enable evidence-based policy making and monitoring within the health sector. Policy-makers have realized that if they wanted to develop policies to enhance the performance of their systems, they needed reliable information on the quality of financial resources used for health, their sources and the way they were used. In this paper indicators obtained from NHA data provide evidence on spending patterns for all sectors – public and private, different health care activities, providers, and country regions. Information have been used to make assessment if changes in expenditures reflect the main strategic orientations on the reform of the health system and compare results with those of other countries.

Mapping Serbia’s labour market

USAID

Year: 2006

This report explores regional characteristics of the labor market in Serbia carried out in the second half of 2004, as part of the preparation of the National Strategy employment for the period 2005-2010. The basic idea was to Identify regions in which labor force members are exposed above the average risk of unemployment and recommend to economic creators policies and local actors to contribute to the reduction regional differences in the Serbia labor market. The study on labor market map of Serbia strives to comprehensively examine the situation on the labor markets in districts and municipalities and to discover what impacts very different in performance regional labor markets. This research also looks at the prospects of the labor market in the regional dimension and offers recommendations for employment-oriented policy.

Year: 2006

The main goal of this analysis is the development of a methodology to measure current conditions as well as prospective welfare of municipalities. The subject of this study is the comparison of (under)development among municipalities of Serbia. The study attempts to measure the main dimensions of (under)development of Serbian municipalities.

Serbia’s economy: The stylized facts

USAID, Fund for an Open Society-Serbia and the Royal Netherlands Embassy

Year: 2006

This report presents a comprehensive assessment of Serbia’s key macroeconomic statistics and aggregates, the essential economic information that can be derived from it with reasonable certainty, and a reassessment of the GDP level and expenditure structure. The assessment covers key price, exchange rate, production and output data, as well as all publicly available fiscal, monetary and external sector data. It documents the data and presents it in analytically useful formats; it documents the collection methodologies and inventories key weaknesses in it; it points to inconsistencies among the series, providing an assessment, where possible, of the likely actual dimensions of the aggregates. An alternative set of figures is offered for the GDP level and expenditure structure in 2003 and 2004.

The purpose of Volume II report is to analyze the value added of the enterprise sector of Serbia, as recorded from financial reports submitted to the Solvency Center in 2001-2004, and its behavior with regard to forms of ownership, size and activities, and then assess the impact of ownership structure and its changes on economic growth, productivity, employment and labor costs.