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Thailand Wonders if This Is the End for Former Prime Minister

November 01, 2009 3:30 PM

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Thailand Wonders if This Is the End for Former Prime Minister

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Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has fled Thailand to avoid
corruption charges. Many of his supporters say this is the end of the
controversial billionaire's political career, but some opposition
leaders and political analysts say they are not writing him off. Ron
Corben reports from Bangkok.

Thai police issued arrest warrants
for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Pojaman this
week after they fled the country instead of appearing before the
Supreme Court to face corruption charges.

Mr. Thaksin and his family flew to Britain following a trip to the Beijing Olympics.

Several of his allies have said that Mr. Thaksin has abandoned his role in politics and has no more influence in the government.

Kraisak
Choonhavan, a member of the opposition Democrat Party, disagrees,
although he thinks the former prime minister will have a more indirect
influence now.

"I would say that he's not completely out of
the picture still," he said. "He's a fugitive and he's probably seeking
refugee status and the Thai Attorney General would have to prove he's
not a refugee and he doesn't deserve to have refugee status. And that
will be a legal process that will become a political issue in the near
future."

Mr. Thaksin and his wife face trial on several
corruption charges for offenses that allegedly occurred while he was in
office. Mrs. Pojaman has been convicted in one case and sentenced to
three years in prison.

They deny any wrongdoing and say the
charges are politically motivated. Mr. Thaksin also has said he does
not think he can get a fair trial.

That complaint may resonate with his supporters among the urban and rural poor.

Sunai
Pasuk, a representative for Human Rights Watch, says many supporters,
who appreciated Mr. Thaksin's programs for the poor, will believe he
has been badly treated.

"Well, indeed escape to England this
time has turned Thaksin into a political martyr which will serve to
maintain the strength of his party," he said.

Mr. Thaksin
first went into exile after a coup in 2006. The coup was prompted by
months of protests led by members of the educated upper classes, who
consider him dictatorial and corrupt. He returned to Thailand earlier
this year after his allies in the People Power Party won national
elections.

Some political analysts say Mr. Thaksin hoped Prime
Minister Samak Sundaravej could pass constitutional reforms that would
have ended the corruption investigations.

However, street protests over the past three months forced the government to delay any changes.

Chris Baker, an author and analyst on Thailand, thinks the protests may ease with Mr. Thaksin gone.

"Yes,
I think it's significantly calmed down now," he said. "My guess is that
the Samak government will survive for quite a long time, much longer
than many people suspect."

Over the next several weeks,
prosecutors say they will prepare paperwork to ask British authorities
to arrest and extradite Mr. Thaksin and his wife. That process,
however, could take months, if not years.