Somalia Food Security Outlook, February 2018

Issued: March 1, 2018

Despite improvements, 2.7 million people need emergency assistance through the lean season

KEY MESSAGES

Large assistance needs will continue throughout 2018, with worst-affected populations in northern and central pastoral areas facing larger gaps in their basic food needs. Although a better than expected October to December 2018 rainy season contributed to a reduction in the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), humanitarian assistance also played a large role in driving improvements. There is high concern food security would deteriorate considerably in this absence of assistance, with an estimated 2.7 million people expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse by June 2018. Continued assistance is needed throughout much of the country to protect lives and livelihoods.

The 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average and, as a result, access to typical sources of food and income, including agricultural labor, crop production, and livestock sales, will remain below average throughout the projection period. Pastoralists in northern and central regions lost a large number of livestock in 2017 and the recovery of herds to pre-crisis levels will require several consecutive, favorable seasons.

Food security outcomes are expected to be most severe between March and June, when Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in Guban Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and the western half of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones. During this time, poor households will lack access to milk and have few saleable livestock to purchase food. Of greatest concern is Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, where atypical livestock deaths are occurring and households face an extreme loss of income. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period in this livelihood zone.