I am an evil giraffe. But I'm trying, Nick. I'm trying REAL HARD to be the wizard.

So, the Obama administration needs to sign up – four million? Five? Six? …LOTS – of people tomorrow if they hope to hit their original target numbers. Let me do some spoilers:

The Obama administration is not going to hit its target numbers for federal exchange signups.

The state exchanges are not going to hit their numbers, either. The best percentage that any state exchange has hit, to date, is less than 23%.

Those numbers from the last link are likely to go up. They are not going to go up insanely.

And there is no certainty about what happens next.

Don’t believe me? Look at the landscape. Volunteer fire departments don’t know if they’re going to be able to function under the new rules. I repeat: they don’t know. Insurers are still trying to figure out how to implement Presidential decrees. The latest worry is a quiet concern that mental health professionals are about to become overwhelmed*. The administration is so desperate to sign up young people that it’s going clubbing. The courts keep smacking the federal government around on conscience exemptions. And anybody who tells you that the administration and the insurers are guaranteed to perfectly – or even functionally – reconcile this month’s last minute applications is either a madman, a liar, or a fool.

:pause:

I’m sorry. I tried to stop what’s about to happen from happening. I did my absolute best to try to stop it from happening. I just wasn’t convincing enough.

*I’m sure that many people need increased mental health coverage. This administration, however, has somehow unaccountably forgotten to do anything about increasing the number of specialists necessary to handle that coverage.

It occurs to me that I feel relatively confident that no matter the numbers, the administration is going to declare a qualified (but still overwhelming, mind you) success….
.
As a matter of fact, I’d put even money on the phrase “overwhelming success” being part of Obama’s statement. Cynical of me, I know. I’m too young to be so jaded.