Today (Saturday): When we start near and above record morning warmth levels, we know trouble looms as the day gets underway. Temperatures race upward with the sun, heading for the century mark and beyond by early afternoon. With high humidity mixed in, heat indices past 110 are certainly doable. Real highs are almost as unbearable, ranging from near 100 to around 105. July 7, 2012 may be about to find itself in the books several times over. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: It’s a hot evening unless we capitalize on a very small (10%) chance of a storm early. There’s the potential for some additional storminess late at night dropping in from the north or northwest, but for now it appears to want to weaken before reaching us. If un-cooled by rain, lows should range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain brings anyone who may get it back into the 70s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow (Sunday): I’m sure I don’t have to tell you it’s going to be hot. A cold front approaching the area should eventually trigger some showers and storms, but first we’ve got another humid one as we sit and wait. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures should rise at least to the mid-90s and near 100. Storms become more likely heading through the afternoon into evening, and some could be severe with isolated to scattered damaging winds the main threat. Right now, it’s about a 50-60% chance of seeing a storm. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: The threat for showers and storms should diminish as the evening progresses. The front is not in any major hurry to get very far past us though, so clouds may remain plentiful through the night. Lows should range from the upper 60s to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday looks to bring a different weather pattern along compared to what we’ve seen recently. The front that passes Sunday stalls to the south as high pressure breaks down just enough to get some relief. Showers and storms should continue to like the frontal zone, which for now appears to stay south, but not by far. For now, a 40-50% chance of passing activity (mainly south) should do. With extra clouds around, and a cooler regime in place, highs rise toward the mid-and-upper 80s. It could even be a touch cooler if rain is more prevalent. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tuesday features similar conditions to Monday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and at least a modest chance (40%) for passing showers or storms. Any uncertainty with precipitation placement from Monday is even further compounded by adding another 24 hours to it, so we’ll have to continue to fine tune this one. There are certainly hints of a rainier week ahead though. Highs should shoot for the mid-80s, though a real range is probably just 80s depending on clouds and precip. Confidence: Low-Medium

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.

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