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Here's the maths. Estimates were for AUD/USD to be at 0.72 at the end of the year. We have hit that already. Estimates for end of Year 2016 was for 0.64. AUD/USD average H/L at 600 pips every 2 months. SHould it continue to fall then that brings us to 0.60 by end of year which is way off estimation. In order for AUD/USD to decline to end of year 0.64 estimations it needs to go upwards to roughly 0.82 then back down again. In another words it has gone down too soon too fast. Remember the Dax 30 what happened with them? They went up too fast before losing almost 3k eventually. At that time everyone was wondering if the Dax would end up with the same price as Dow Industrials. In order to not lose out you should call long now. However do not take my word for it and call what you feel is best for your style.

For AUDUSD to reach .82 my opinion is that this is only possible if the USD falls. (I think 40%). On the other hand your other estimate of AUDUSD must reach .60 by end of year may not be way off estimate. (I think 60%) Candas I like your reasoning and explanation. . However I dont think the AUD has any more power left in the economy unless CHina can pull a rabitt out of the bag. And the USD is all too powerfull, it may looose some ground but not alotI think. We will have to wait and see. I am keeping away from this pair in any case, too risky. Keep us posted with your thoughts please.

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