Cold airmass atop warm SSTs continues to generate showers over the North Sea and English Channel, these then drifting largely west/southwestwards courtesy of an east/northeasterly steering flow. The deepest instability will exist during the first half of the forecast period, especially near the Channel Isles where low-level convergence may provide enough additional forcing for sporadic lightning - as such, a low-end SLGT has been introduced.

Elsewhere, lightning will be rather isolated, and increasingly less-likely as the airmass gradually warms and instability weakens, leading to showers becoming more isolated with time.