Myanmar

A Ne Win situation

Mysterious arrests

MEETING late at night in a Chinese restaurant, the family of Myanmar's former strongman, Ne Win, plotted to seize power with sticks and voodoo dolls. That, at any rate, is how the spokesmen of the current junta, the State Peace and Development Council, account for the arrest last weekend of four of Mr Ne Win's close relations and the subsequent sacking of four senior military officers. It all sounds somewhat far-fetched—but no matter: the truth is less important than the results. The local equivalent of Kremlinologists have been poring over the news for some hint about the prospects for political change.

Since 1990, when the army annulled an election, Myanmar has stagnated under a repressive military regime. But for over a year now, the junta has been holding secret talks with Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won the aborted poll. The talks have sparked hopes of a deal that might pave the way for a restoration of democracy, or at least some sort of softening of the generals' rule. The attempted coup (if there was one), commentators speculated, may have been intended to block such an outcome. So the arrests might be good for reform.

Sadly, there is no real reason to imagine that the alleged plotters feel any differently about reform than the triumvirate of generals that heads the junta. Until last week, Mr Ne Win's relations were known (and despised) for exploiting their political connections to build a business empire. Like other insiders, they would presumably be reluctant to cede any political or economic power, but would like to ease the international isolation that has left Myanmar's economy in tatters.

So it is quite plausible, as the junta's spokesmen insist, that the purported coup stems merely from squabbling over business deals. But that does not make the episode irrelevant. Mr Ne Win ran Burma (as the country was then known) for over 25 years. Even after he handed power to the current military regime, he was still thought to exercise influence behind the scenes. The fact that the junta's leaders dared strike at such a prominent family suggests that they are very firmly in control. So they have no reason to abandon their talks with Miss Suu Kyi—but neither, unfortunately, do they have any need to make serious concessions in them.