Hugo Chavez: Death of a Petro Daddy

Just as Venezuelan supporters of Hugo Chavez prayed and cried when he returned home after a series of cancer-fighting treatments, so, too, Caribbean countries looked on as the architect of the region’s biggest fuel-based alliance lay dying in Caracas.

President Chavez’s Petrocaribe programme has channelled billions of dollars’ worth of cheap oil to countries across central America and the Caribbean, benefiting as many 70 million people. That makes him one of the region’s biggest sugar daddies - or rather, petro-daddies - of all time.

It wasn’t the first wave of politically motivated largesse to swamp the Caribbean. Before Petrocaribe, a number of Caribbean countries had already shifted alliances several times: from their traditional colonial links with Britain and Spain to Cold War alliances, then later currying favour with China, Taiwan or Japan as expediency dictated.

Venezuela reportedly provides over 100,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba – that’s about half the island’s petroleum needs.

Cuba, in return for its Petrocaribe resources, has provided a stream of doctors and teachers to work in Venezuela over the years, earning Cuba an estimated $6bn a year.

Mr Chavez, until he was flown to hospital in Havana in December 2012 for a fourth operation, had overseen the export of $3.6bn of oil to Cuba in 2011 via Petrocaribe.

Cuba had itself sought its own source of oil with the help of Venezuelan expertise in 2004, but reportedly found dry wells.

Many credit Cuba – specifically Fidel and Raul Castro – with the advice over the years which has helped fuel Mr Chavez’s longevity in office.

One Cuban-American economist told Britain’s Telegraph newspaper that the drying up of Venezuelan subsidies to Havana would be “disastrous”.

"If this help stops, industry is paralysed, transportation is paralysed and you'll see the effects in everything from electricity to sugar mills," Carmelo Mesa-Lago said.

Professor Anthony Bryan, a senior associate for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said that Cuba would be the first casualty if the plug were pulled on Petrocaribe.

On this basis, Prof Bryan believes that Petrocaribe will survive “in some form for a while”.

If the programme ends completely, he estimates that the Dominican Republic would “not be affected that much”, although it would need to find resources to replace the 30,000 barrels of oil a day fuelled by Petrocaribe.

But that might be exactly what Caribbean countries could get in the power vacuum left by the larger-than-life figure of Hugo Chavez, who has dominated Venezuelan politics for over a decade.

Much wheeling and dealing is expected, not just from Venezuelan politicians, but also from the Cuban officials who haunt Caracas’ corridors of power.

Add to this the growing consolidation of power by Chavistas that took place during President Chavez’s prolonged illness.

“Chavez’s matchless talent at speaking to the poor in Venezuela – together with the billions of petrodollars that have been spent on social programmes – have earned him a quasi-religious reverence from his followers,” wrote Venezuelan specialist Stephen Gibbs in the 3 March edition of the Observer newspaper.

He quotes a lawyer in Caracas as saying that “the process of beatification has begun”.

Caribbean nations can only hope that any unravelling of Petrocaribe will take some time.