There is no adjustment for the strength of the offense or defense. It is strictly based on the historical success rates of teams scoring points from a given starting point of a drive as well as the historical success rate of attaining a first down with X number of yards to go.

Which is precisely why this whole useless exercise is just that, useless. I would expect more out of you. I hope even Pederson would blush at this - if he ever goes for it on 4th and 1 from his own 9 and fails, he's going to lose the locker room.

Historical success rates from 31 other teams have absolutely nothing to do with you, your current situation, and the team you're facing. Kinda not like baseball.....

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"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."