I know, I know. This seems highly unlikely. And I await the verbal lashings that many of you may reign down upon me. But hear me out. I was looking at my current predicitions for the Oscars, and it occurred to me that I don’t have American Hustle winning anything. Not one thing! Crazy right? Yes. It is. But the more I think about, the more I think it might be possible. Here’s my breakdown:

Best Picture: I have 12 Years a Slave winning. It’s won Critics Choice and the Golden Globe. If it wins PGA and BAFTA, then forget it. It’s done.Actor: No one really thinks Bale is going to win this thing, right?Actress: Some folks want to believe Adams has a shot, but Blanchett is so much of a lock here. This isn’t Viola versus Meryl from 2011. This isn’t even JLaw versus Riva from last year. This is Portman for Black Swan or Day-Lewis for Lincoln kind of locked for Blanchett.Supporting Actor: If anyone is beating Leto (and nobody is), it’s Fassbender not Cooper.Supporting Actress: Here’s where my theory could go off the rails. I’m nervously picking Lupita Nyong’o here. Her speech at Critic’s Choice and the risk of overexposure to JLaw makes me think Lupita is winning the Oscar.Director: Cuaron.Original Screenplay: Her has been picking up more of the precursors than American Hustle. Apart from the NY Film Critics, SF Film Critics, and Capri (whatever that is), AH hasn’t won anything for the script. Also, Her overperformed. It’s going to win something, and this is the award it’ll win.Production Design and Costume Design: While definitely possible for AH to win one of these, I have Gatsby winning both.Editing: Gravity is winning this.

So there you have it. Ten categories, ten losses. I’ll be singing another song if JLaw wins SAG or the film itself wins PGA or WGA. But as of right now, this is how I see it playing out.

Oh and in case anyone says that this is impossible. “A film with the most nominations can’t lose all it’s categories.” Well, in 1977 The Turning Point had a record-breaking 11 nominations and won nothing. Then the same thing happened to The Color Purple in 1985 when it went 0/11. Think about just last year. Had it not been for Day-Lewis’ outstanding performance, Lincoln probably would have gone home empty-handed (a stunning 0/12). Not saying I am right about this. In fact, I’m sure I’ll be proven wrong. I just thought it be an interesting possibilty to entertain.

The funniest part is that the ‘explosion at the wig factory’ film wasn’t nominated for its one sure bet win of hair and makeup. It could go empty handed but let’s wait and see. O Russel’s track record for acting has me tempted to predict Jennifer, but that’s a problem I’ll decide closer to the time.

I questioned the possibility while I was making my (very early) predictions. So far, I only have it for BP, Screenplay and Costumes, with maybe a chance Jennifer beats Lupita in Supporting Actress. And even in those two, it could lose to Her in screenplay and The Great Gatsby in costumes. It would be weird for this to come out empty-handed, but it’s not out of the question.

You know what would be shocking? If it lost every other category and won BP. And this is a weird possibility that I also think is not so implausible. While I listing contenders, AH kept getting a lot of #2 and #3.

I have it winning Supporting Actress and Costume Design. The only other things I see it winning are Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay (second in both categories). I agree with you on Cate Blanchett, and even then Sandra Bullock is above Amy Adams.

I questioned the possibility while I was making my (very early) predictions. So far, I only have it for BP, Screenplay and Costumes, with maybe a chance Jennifer beats Lupita in Supporting Actress. And even in those two, it could lose to Her in screenplay and The Great Gatsby in costumes. It would be weird for this to come out empty-handed, but it’s not out of the question.

You know what would be shocking? If it lost every other category and won BP. And this is a weird possibility that I also think is not so implausible. While I listing contenders, AH kept getting a lot of #2 and #3.

Funny thing is that the movie I could actually see winning nothing but Best Picture is 12 Years and not American Hustle. If Hustle wins Picture, it’d likely take other categories along for the ride (e.g. Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Costume Design). Of course in a scenario where 12 Years wins only BP, that would mean AH is winning Supporting Actress.

Cuaron is probably winning DGA. Despite my signature, I think it just may come down to PGA. There are more people who are passionate about 12YAS than the other 2 films, but there are also those who are over the “slave” genre. If it experiences a backlash, all it would take is a few #9 votes to tip the scales in American Hustle’s favor.

If the voting were not preferential, I think 12YAS would have this quite easily. But how many Armond White’s exist in the academy? Nearly everyone likes American Hustle, and oftentimes, that is good enough to win BP.

However, if 12YAS wins SAG (Argo upset David O Russell’s SAG-favorite SLP last year), than we can narrow the race down to two films.

[quote=”Renato_Miranda”]I questioned the possibility while I was making my (very early) predictions. So far, I only have it for BP, Screenplay and Costumes, with maybe a chance Jennifer beats Lupita in Supporting Actress. And even in those two, it could lose to Her in screenplay and The Great Gatsby in costumes. It would be weird for this to come out empty-handed, but it’s not out of the question.

You know what would be shocking? If it lost every other category and won BP. And this is a weird possibility that I also think is not so implausible. While I listing contenders, AH kept getting a lot of #2 and #3.

Funny thing is that the movie I could actually see winning nothing but Best Picture is 12 Years and not American Hustle. If Hustle wins Picture, it’d likely take other categories along for the ride (e.g. Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Costume Design). Of course in a scenario where 12 Years wins only BP, that would mean AH is winning Supporting Actress. [/quote]

I think 12 Years couldn’t pull off a win without other wins because of preferential voting in BP. That is a category of consensus rather than a specific passionate group of support winning over the others. I think AH is broad enough in appeal that it could get BP and nothing else, but I think 12 Years would need wins in other places.