This image released by Universal Pictures shows Viggo Mortensen, left, and Mahershala Ali in a scene from “Green Book.” On Thursday, Dec. 6, 2018, the film was nominated for a Golden Globe award for best motion picture musical or comedy. The 76th Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, Jan. 6. (Patti Perret/Universal Pictures via AP)

At least not in the Best Picture race. Yes, it’s been hard to predict that winner since the academy expanded the nomination count and introduced a preferential balloting system for the category about 10 years ago. But other factors make this one the biggest free-for-all Best Picture race of the decade.

For one thing, all of the major Hollywood guilds have given their highest honors to different films this year, making even a front-runner that might lose impossible to intelligently lay odds on.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Viggo Mortensen, left, and Mahershala Ali in a scene from “Green Book.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (Universal Pictures via AP)

This image released by Netflix shows Yalitza Aparicio, center, in a scene from the film “Roma,” by filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron. On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for both best foreign language film and best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Carlos Somonte/Netflix via AP)

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This image released by Focus Features shows Adam Driver, left, and John David Washington in a scene from “BlacKkKlansman.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (David Lee/Focus Features via AP)

This image released by Disney shows a scene from Marvel Studios’ “Black Panther.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (Matt Kennedy/Marvel Studios-Disney via AP)

This image released by Twentieth Century Fox shows Gwilym Lee, from left, Rami Malek and Joe Mazzello in a scene from “Bohemian Rhapsody.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (Alex Bailey/Twentieth Century Fox via AP)

This image released by Sony Pictures Classics shows Glenn Close in a scene from “The Wife.” On Thursday, Dec. 6, 2018, Close was nominated for a Golden Globe award for lead actress in a motion picture drama for her role in the film. The 76th Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, Jan. 6. (Graeme Hunter/Sony Pictures Classics via AP)

This image released by Fox Searchlight Films shows Olivia Colman in a scene from the film “The Favourite.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Colman was nominated for an Oscar for best actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Atsushi Nishijima/Fox Searchlight Films via AP)

This image released by Annapurna Pictures shows Regina King in a scene from “If Beale Street Could Talk.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, King was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Tatum Mangus/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Mahershala Ali in a scene from “Green Book.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Ali was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actor for his role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Universal Pictures via AP)

This image released by Fox Searchlight Pictures shows Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant in a scene from “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Grant was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actor for his role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Mary Cybulski/Fox Searchlight Pictures via AP)

“Vice,” featuring Christian Bale as Dick Cheney, left, and Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush, was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

This image released by Focus Features shows Topher Grace, left, and Adam Driver, right, in a scene from “BlacKkKlansman.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Driver was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actor for his role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (David Lee/Focus Features via AP)

This image released by Sony Pictures Animations shows a scene from “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best animated feature. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Sony Pictures Animation via AP)

This image released by Warner Bros. shows Lady Gaga in a scene from the latest reboot of the film, “A Star is Born.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Lady Gaga was nominated for an Oscar for best actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Clay Enos/Warner Bros. via AP)

This image released by Fox Searchlight shows Rachel Weisz in a scene from “The Favourite.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Weisz was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Yorgos Lanthimos/Fox Searchlight via AP)

This image released by Annapurna Pictures shows Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush in a scene from “Vice.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Rockwell was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actor for his role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

This image released by Annapurna Pictures shows Amy Adams in a scene from “Vice.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Adams was nominated for an Oscar for best supporting actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

This image released by Annapurna shows director Adam McKay, from left, Christian Bale, producer Kevin Messick and cinematographer Greig Fraser on the set of “Vice.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, McKay was nominated for an Oscar for best director for his work on the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

This image released by Amazon Studios shows Joanna Kulig in a scene from “Cold War.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best foreign language film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Amazon Studios via AP)

This image released by Fox Searchlight Films shows Olivia Colman in a scene from the film “The Favourite.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, the film was nominated for an Oscar for best picture. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24, 2019. (Atsushi Nishijima/Fox Searchlight Films via AP)

This image released by Warner Bros. shows Bradley Cooper in a scene from the latest reboot of the film, “A Star is Born.” On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Cooper was nominated for an Oscar for best actor for his role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Clay Enos/Warner Bros. via AP)

This image released by Netflix shows Yalitza Aparicio in a scene from the film “Roma,” by filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron. On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Aparicio was nominated for an Oscar for best actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Alfonso Cuarón/Netflix via AP)

That stipulated, of the eight Best Picture Oscar nominees from 2018, “Roma” and “Green Book” are probably the most likely. But they’ve both got what competition handicappers might call problems.

Alfonso Cuaron’s black-and-white Mexican movie is by far the most critically acclaimed art film of last year – but it’s an arty, black-and-white production in a foreign language, and nothing that foreign has ever won the top Oscar before (though “The Artist,” a French production shot in L.A., was a mostly silent film with a little bit of English dialogue). On top of that, Roma’s a Netflix release, which means it’s not only enjoyed an outrageously expensive awards campaign leading up to and following its co-leading 10 nominations, but that it has to overcome any “theatrical movies only” prejudices academy voters may still harbor against the game-changing streaming service.

As for “Green Book,” though audiences that go tend to adore this story of overcoming personal and institutional racism in the early 1960s, critics find it weak and socially conscious folks wonder why a film about an essentially African-American thing (the actual Green Book was a guide to safe accommodations for motorists of color in the Jim Crow South) is told from a predominantly white perspective. In addition, director Peter Farrelly was not nominated in his category, and it’s rare for a film to win Best Picture without a directing nod – though not impossible, as the similarly complained-about interracial friendship story “Driving Miss Daisy” was the last to pull off that trick 29 years ago.

Other possible contenders for the 91st Academy Awards’ top prize are “The Favourite,” which tied “Roma” for most overall nominations, and two films about black subjects actually made by African-Americans, Ryan Coogler’s record-breaking superhero box-office hit “Black Panther” and Spike Lee’s first ever Picture and Director nominee “BlacKkKlansman.” Heck, even the music movies “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Star Is Born” are obviously loved by enough people to make them Best Picture upset possibilities.

If “Vice” hadn’t been about Dick Cheney, we could make an argument that it’s actually an eight-way race this year.

The acting categories seem like the surest bets. Lead Actor should be “Bohemian’s” Rami Malek, Lead Actress Glenn Close for “The Wife,” “Green Book’s” Mahershala Ali for Supporting Actor and Regina King from “If Beale Street Could Talk” for Supporting Actress. Only King looks the least bit shaky at this point, since she wasn’t nominated for some earlier industry awards, but I think she’ll pull through on Sunday.

All of which, let’s be honest, is good. While every nominee may not be what you’d call worthy – and inevitably some of the year’s best artists get completely overlooked, Ethan Hawke – most of the current contenders have done excellent work, and that’s ultimately what matters more than who gets a prize.

But we watch the Oscars for the suspense of who’s going to win, right? This year’s Best Picture race, especially, has an extra dimension to the standard, envelope-opening intrigue. Its outcome will tell us a lot about whether the recent influx of foreign, female, younger and ethnically diverse members, in response to the #OscarsSoWhite criticisms of several years ago, have really changed the academy’s voting population’s overall sensibility.

It’s not just racial sensitivity that’s at play in the contest which pits “Roma,” “Panther” and “BlacKkKlansman” against “Green Book.” There’s also a tension between artistry and what Hollywood – which, after all, the Oscars represent – is more geared toward: entertainment. You could say those first three films, along with “Favourite” and “Vice,” are relatively uncompromising works bent on taking provocative chances, with “Panther’s” massive popularity a delightful icing on that eaten cake. “Green Book,” “Rhapsody” and “A Star Is Born,” on the other hand, represent the please-’em-first approach (simplifying and smoothing out gnarly, potentially upsetting story elements, rehashing tried-and-true formulas, your favorite hit tunes! et cetera) that Oscar traditionally favors.

Who and what wins Sunday will indicate whether or not the academy voters approve of venturing into the uncertain new or favor falling back on the dubious comforts of what’s worked before.

Bob Strauss has been covering film at the L.A. Daily News since 1989. He wouldn't say the movies have gotten worse in that time, but they do keep getting harder to love. Fortunately, he still loves them.