Breakaway Region Tests Yeltsin's Nerve

Chechnya Crisis A `Bay Of Pigs' For Wary Russia

November 30, 1994|By James P. Gallagher, Tribune Staff Writer.

MOSCOW — Russia President Boris Yeltsin faced off against the leader of the breakaway Chechnya region Tuesday in a dangerous game of "dare you" amid fears that the two sides could stumble into an Afghanistan-style quagmire in the Caucasus Mountains.

At the core of the crisis, already being referred to as Moscow's "Bay of Pigs," are dozens of Russian soldiers captured by the Chechen regime in bloody weekend fighting. Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev has threatened to execute them as mercenaries.

On Tuesday, Yeltsin replied with a threat of his own: Moscow would take direct control of the rebel Muslim region, which declared independence in 1991, unless the soldiers were set free by Thursday morning.

Interior Ministry troops were on alert, ready to be flown to the Caucasus if needed, while Dudayev warned of a prolonged guerrilla war of resistance and won pledges of support from neighboring Muslim tribes in Russia's volatile southern tier.

Fighter jets and helicopters attacked the Chechen capital of Grozny on Tuesday, bombing the city's airport, destroying aircraft and tearing up runways. It was the first time jets were used in the conflict, but it was unclear who had authorized the raid.

Sources close to the Russian government said the Kremlin is wary of direct confrontation with the Chechens-who could exploit the hostile mountainous terrain to great advantage in any armed conflict with Moscow-and still hope to resolve the crisis peacefully before Yeltsin's deadline.

But if the charismatic, erratic Dudayev stands firm and puts the captured soldiers on trial, Yeltsin would have little room to maneuver.

Given the rising tide of Russian nationalist feeling, Yeltsin would put his political future at risk if he stood by idly while Russians were condemned and executed-especially by Chechens, whom many Russians regard as an inferior and treacherous people.

"If those soldiers die, his political career dies with them," a Western diplomat said. "He can't even afford to let them go on trial. The nationalists would have a field day."

Even Izvestia, the liberal newspaper, asked: "What will Russia say about a government that failed to protect its sons?"

In a dramatic ultimatum released early Tuesday, Yeltsin hinted that Moscow is ready to withdraw its support of the loose confederation of insurgents in Chechnya that has been trying to oust Dudayev.

Yeltsin gave both sides in the conflict 48 hours to lay down their weapons and disband their units, a development that would leave Dudayev in charge-at least for now. The Chechen leader soon accepted this part of the ultimatum. The fate of the captured soldiers, however, remains the sticking point. Yeltsin also demanded the release of all prisoners.

"If the deadline is not met, a state of emergency will be introduced on the territory of the Chechen Republic, and all the forces and means at the disposal of the state will be used to put a stop to the bloodshed," Yeltsin said.

In an earlier ultimatum of his own, Dudayev had given Yeltsin until 6 p.m. Tuesday to admit that the captured soldiers had been sent to fight in Chechnya by Russia's military. Had Yeltsin complied, Dudayev said, the soldiers would be treated as prisoners of war. But if Yeltsin failed to take reponsibility for the captives, Dudayev said, "they will be tried under Islamic law. . . . There is only one sentence for mercenaries."

Yeltsin ignored the deadline, but Dudayev remained silent-which raised hopes in Moscow that he, too, wants to avoid an all-out confrontation.

The latest crisis began Saturday, when Moscow-backed Chechen insurgents rolled into Grozny with tanks and heavy artillery. After hours of fierce fighting, they were routed by pro-Dudayev troops.

As many as 70 Russians fighting with the insurgents were captured, and some later conceded to reporters in Grozny that they were indeed in the Russian army.

Russian sources said the ill-fated attack was planned and coordinated by Russian strategists operating from an air base in Mozdok in the North Caucasus with Gen. Alexander Kotinkov, deputy minister for regional and national affairs, in charge.

Kotinkov is under heavy criticism for failing to back up the tanks and artillery with sufficient infantry.

"It was like the Bay of Pigs," said one source close to the government, referring to the 1961 fiasco when U.S.-backed Cuban invaders were crushed by Fidel Castro.

Among the casualties of the weekend defeat is Moscow's hope of toppling Dudayev by relying entirely on surrogates. Moscow has never recognized Chechnya's independence, but until recently an uneasy peace had prevailed between the two sides.

Since declaring its independence, oil-rich Chechnya has become a key transit point for contraband being smuggled into and out of Russia. Dudayev has supporters in Moscow, people who have become rich under his protection.

Russian enmity toward Chechens dates back to the early 19th Century, when the Russian Empire was bogged down for four decades in a punishing war with the bloodthirsty Chechens and other fierce Muslim mountain peoples.