tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/eu-elections-10114/articlesEU elections – The Conversation2014-06-09T13:42:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277592014-06-09T13:42:17Z2014-06-09T13:42:17ZCaptain Clegg is steering the good ship Lib Dem towards an electoral iceberg<p>It has now been a few weeks since the Liberal Democrats were, broadly speaking, humiliated at the local and European elections. This humiliation was repeated at the subsequent Newark by-election, although the majority of coverage has focused on congratulating the Tories on winning a safe seat and not enough on the fact that the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/06/newark-by-election-lib-dems-ukip_n_5457384.html">Lib Dem candidate lost his deposit</a>. </p>
<p>There were already grumblings of growing intensity from Lib Dem members about the leadership of Nick Clegg after the local and European elections. But after the botched coup attempt by Lord Oakeshott, ironically, his position feels more secure after his supporters circled the wagons and mounted attacks on those people calling for his head. And even after Newark there was a sense that the moment to replace him as leader had been missed.</p>
<p>So the Lib Dems are left with a lame-duck leader who has no connection with the public and no obvious strategy to develop one. Credibility and character are fundamental for any politician trying to build support in the community. David Cameron has successfully defined himself as a small “l” liberal Conservative in charge of a government that is successfully delivering an economic recovery. Miliband, meanwhile – who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/ed-miliband-is-damaged-goods-and-labour-needs-to-act-quickly-27202">leadership issues of his own</a> – draws upon his beliefs in social democracy and the intellectual credentials of Labour’s ideological renewal <em>vis-à-vis</em> his One Nation vision.</p>
<p>Clegg, meanwhile, has lost his narrative. His argument for joining the Coalition was that the Lib Dems would finally be a party of government. The Lib Dems would have hoped that some of the credit from the improving economic numbers would rub off on them. But this plan has been undermined by the way the Tories have managed to dominate the economic agenda, which has meant they’ve been able to take ownership of any positive narrative deriving from the economy.</p>
<h2>Credibility deficit</h2>
<p>The Lib Dems’ expectation and hope was to repeat the experience of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwtwo/election_01.shtml">Labour in Churchill’s government</a>, which demonstrated to the electorate that Labour was a credible governing force. Unfortunately they have failed because the electorate simply does not believe Clegg; they think he cannot be trusted because he <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jul/29/nick-clegg-changed-mind-cuts">changed his mind on economic strategy prior to the general election</a> yet continued making arguments which ran counter to this change. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Clegg’s sorry moment.</span></figcaption>
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<p>He lost credibility because he had promised to oppose any rise in tuition fees and gave way on that, too. He is also seen as detached from the agenda of the rest of society: styling the Lib dems as <a href="http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-party-of-in-clegg-stategy-38433.html">the party of “in”</a> and focusing on unsuccessful campaigns for AV and Lords reform – when what everyone really wanted was a sign the economy was on the mend, something he has failed to win any credit for.</p>
<p>On Europe, rightly or wrongly, the arguments of Cameron (who wants to remain in a radically reformed Europe) and Farage (who simply wants out) resonate far more with the electorate.</p>
<p>As a result of this and the various broken promises or ditched campaigns, Clegg – who rode high in 2010 on his promises to bring a “new style of politics” has simply confirmed a perception in the mind of the electorate that politicians can’t be trusted. Meanwhle Farage is winning ever-stronger support on the basis that his “straight talking” puts fresh air between him and the “professional politicians”.</p>
<h2>Lib Dems’ ostrich moment</h2>
<p>Clegg’s failure to fall on his sword after three poor election results in quick succession is now reinforcing the message that, far from being a party that listens, the leadership is now burying its head in the sand. There is no evidence that the are preparing to change the approach that brought about humiliation in the European elections, the local council election and, last week, at Newark. Maintaining confidence in this message speaks to Einstein’s definition of madness, that repeating the same action over and over in the hope of different results will produce a winning strategy. </p>
<p>Because Clegg has little remaining political currency left with the audience, convincing them of anything will be very difficult. Even if the argument he is advancing is intellectually or politically valid he will not be able to convince the electorate because he is, for lack of a better description, seriously damaged goods. This is compounded by a party membership which is increasingly disgruntled by his approach. That membership will be expected to show its support in the conference season and into the general election campaign when they will be expected to mobilise to knock on doors. At the moment it’s looking as if Clegg is fast approaching a position where he is incapable of firing up his party in the run up to the general election.</p>
<p>If the Lib Dems continue hemorrhage support, they can expect to lose more than half of their seats. This will inevitably be spun as not as bad as it could be. But it all looks a bit sick when you think that the reason they went into coalition with the Conservatives was to become a party of government and attract increased support, not lose it hand over fist.</p>
<p>So what can be done? The moment for change has come and gone, now all they can do is press on. The result may be devastating, but regardless of how bad it is, it could always have been worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Scott Crines does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It has now been a few weeks since the Liberal Democrats were, broadly speaking, humiliated at the local and European elections. This humiliation was repeated at the subsequent Newark by-election, although…Andrew Scott Crines, Teaching Fellow in Foreign Policy and British Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/272972014-05-29T05:22:53Z2014-05-29T05:22:53ZPower has exposed ideological divide that runs through the heart of the Lib Dems<p>Lord Oakeshott has resigned from the Liberal Democrats because he believes Nick Clegg has turned the party he loves into a party with “no roots, no principles and no values”. With these words he thrust the party’s problems firmly into the spotlight and put its very survival at risk. It’s fair to say, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10856430/Lib-Dems-call-for-resignation-of-toxic-Nick-Clegg.html">it has been a bad week for the Lib Dems</a>.</p>
<p>But, in many ways, it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more vocal dissent before now. Since 2010, when the Liberal Democrat leadership decided to enter into coalition with the Conservatives, the party has been in a state of internal turmoil. Large numbers of party members have left, activists have dropped out, and election results have (with the odd exception – Eastleigh) been far from reassuring. </p>
<p>Despite these disconcerting signs, the Liberal Democrat leadership has stuck with the coalition. Stressing the national interest and the need for co-operation, Clegg has defended his actions and continued to instruct his MPs to vote with the government. While these actions could be seen as selfless sacrifices made for the country’s good, they also hint at an ideological division within the party. Indeed, it is possible to argue that many at the top of the party actually support policies deemed so abhorrent by figures such as Lord Oakeshott. </p>
<p>In this sense, Clegg has not led his party to have “no roots, no principles and no values”. Rather he has promoted a very different set of roots, principles and values to those favoured by Oakeshott. These are not those values traditionally associated with the party’s public image as a left-of-centre party, but are still a key part of the party’s ideological tradition. </p>
<p>The Liberal Democrats have historically been a divided party. Founded by the merger of the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, two distinct strands of thinking can be identified which offer very different visions for society. On the one hand are socially liberal thinkers who support state intervention, redistributive taxation and social equality. While on the other are economic liberals who promote personal freedom, limited regulation and low taxes – wanting to remove the constraints placed on individuals. When the Liberal Democrats were out of government these two wings could live comfortably side by side, with little public sign of division. But, in government, the differences become stark as Liberal Democrat ministers make and endorse policies which promote one ideological strand at the expense of the other.</p>
<h2>Ideological struggle</h2>
<p>Clegg, and many Liberal Democrat ministers, can be aligned with an economically liberal perspective, as attested by their contributions to <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Orange-Book-David-Laws/dp/1861977972">the Orange Book</a>. These ideas contrast with those social liberal principles held by Lord Oakeshott, the Lib Dem president, Tim Farron, many party members and previous leaders such as Charles Kennedy. The party in government is therefore seen by many critics to be advancing an ideological agenda divorced from the socially liberal perspective of many Liberal Democrat supporters. But it is important to note that not all members favour social liberalism – many endorse the approach taken by Clegg. </p>
<p>The tension between these ideological traditions has been evident at certain points in the coalition. Think back to the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/mar/06/nhs-sake-lib-dems-ditch-health-bill">party membership’s outrage</a> over coalition plans to introduce more private provision and competition into the NHS – a policy only “paused” after significant internal party dissent. Or the <a href="http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-where-does-lib-dem-immigration-policy-go-from-here-35671.html">discontent over the government’s immigration strategy</a>. The fundamental mismatch between the ideology of many party supporters (and representatives) and the actions of the government has been frequently voiced. Oakeshott’s attack on Clegg has only made the difference more publicly recognisable.</p>
<p>From this perspective, Oakeshott’s decision to attack Clegg for making the Liberal Democrats a “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/28/matthew-oakeshott-departs-lib-dems-after-long-opposition-of-nick-clegg">split-the-difference” Centre Party with no values or roots</a>, appears a little strange. It is not that the party has no ideas, but rather that, under Clegg, it has moved away from the socially liberal or, “radical progressive party” agenda favoured by many of Clegg’s critics. </p>
<p>Oakeshott’s call for Clegg to resign (or be forced out) is unlikely to solve the Liberal Democrat’s problems. A new leader could satisfy the appetites of socially liberal party members, and open the door to the return of many disaffected party members. But it would not resolve the fundamental ideological division which underpins the party.</p>
<p>The problem for the Liberal Democrats is that, by nailing its colours to the mast and supporting economically liberal Conservative policies, the party leadership has alienated many (but by no means all) supporters. In power, the party no longer presents an ambiguous identity capable of amassing appeal from a range of sources. No matter who leads the party, the Liberal Democrats are likely to experience profound identity problems and find it difficult to regain the wide base of support the party possessed pre-2010.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Dommett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lord Oakeshott has resigned from the Liberal Democrats because he believes Nick Clegg has turned the party he loves into a party with “no roots, no principles and no values”. With these words he thrust…Katharine Dommett, Research Fellow in British Governance and Politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271422014-05-28T05:21:59Z2014-05-28T05:21:59ZHard Evidence: how much power can the far right wield in European Parliament?<p>One of the most heavily reported outcomes of last week’s elections for the European Parliament has been the “revolution on the right” – the large numbers of people who opted to vote for far right, Eurosceptic parties. And one thing is definitely borne out by the figures: European citizens signaled their frustration with the political class by <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/election-results-2014.html">voting for insurgent parties of both left and right</a>. </p>
<p>There has been a general feeling that voting for insurgent parties would somehow hold the mainstream parties to account. And because most countries view the European parliamentary elections to be of “second-order” importance, where less is at stake, the weekend provided an ideal platform with which to make a protest. </p>
<p>Three parties, including the French Front National, British UKIP, and the Danish People’s Party claimed a sweeping victory, topping the polls in their respective countries. In Hungary, Jobbik comfortably claimed the second spot. And in Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Greece, far right parties finished in third place with most of them achieving double-digit figures.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49569/original/qk29jp7n-1401205602.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Table 1: How the far-right parties fared.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Europa.eu</span></span>
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<p>But before getting too carried away it is worth looking at the overall turnout in the elections, which has been estimated at 43.09%, roughly similar to 2009 but, when taken on a <a href="http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm">trend line since 1979</a> – when nearly 62% of people voted – shows a continuing relative lack of interest in the EU elections. And even a vote of 27%, as UKIP achieved in the UK, must be qualified by the fact that only 34% of registered voters cast their ballots.</p>
<h2>Right has winners and losers</h2>
<p>It is also worth take a closer look at a comparison of EP electoral results for far right parties in 2009 and 2014 and you will see a more nuanced picture. While it is true that there are some clear winners, there are also some clear losers and some parties that have not been able to capitalise on the general feeling of economic malaise that is common to most EU member states. </p>
<p>Britain, Austria and Greece saw the rise of right-wing Eurosceptic parties, but also the decline of other extreme groups: the BNP, the BZO and LAOS respectively. In other countries, such as Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania there has been a decline in support for such parties. And although Jobbik came second in Hungary, it did not increase its votes compared to 2009. More importantly, in a number of countries from both eastern and western Europe, the far right either simply hasn’t developed or has not done so sufficiently to gain representation in Brussels. </p>
<p>In terms of representation, far right parties have now more seats in the EP: 77 now compared to 49 after the 2009 election. But this is more than accounted for by the rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-and-fn-won-only-7-of-votes-this-is-not-an-earthquake-24810">France’s Front National</a>, which has gone from three seats in 2009 to 24 now and UKIP, has gone from 13 in 2009 to 24 now. Most other increases are marginal in terms of absolute seat change and in many cases the far right parties lost their representation entirely. </p>
<p>This indicates that the Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group is likely to be monopolised by UKIP. Internal changes in the EFD are also likely to occur as the Italian Lega Nord <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/wilders-le-pen-alliance-what-makes-it-what-breaks-it-302155">announced</a> they are set to splinter from EFD and commence discussions with the Front National, the Dutch PVV, the Austrian FPO, Belgium’s Flemish Interest and the Swedish Democrats in order to form a new EP group. Nigel Farage has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27571817">ruled out forming an alliance</a> with Front National. </p>
<p>So, for a number of reasons, far right parties are unlikely to cause an “earthquake” in the European Parliament, whatever they may have done to their own countries’ political landscape. For a start, most of the Eurosceptic parties lack interest in influencing policy. They tend not to be involved in the day-to-day workings of the EP. Their members <a href="http://mhpccom.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/brussels/files/2014/01/Rise-of-Eurosceptic-Parties.pdf">draft fewer reports and sit in fewer committees</a> than mainstream MEPs.</p>
<p>They are also driven by nationalism, which is a severe handicap when it comes to forming alliances with their counterparts from other countries. An example of this was the rise and fall of the group: Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty, which was formed in 2007 and <a href="http://www.dw.de/european-parliaments-far-right-bloc-collapses/a-2913923-1">lasted just under a year before collapsing</a> after Alessandra Mussolini, grand-daughter of Italy’s fascist wartime leader Benito, made comments about Romanians after the murder of an Italian prompting the Romanians to quit the group.</p>
<p>But even if they succeed in co-operating within the EFD – or under a new organisation – such parties fight for the recognition of national interests, which suggests that voting cohesion in the EP will be low.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/hard-evidence">Hard Evidence</a> is a series of articles in which academics use research evidence to tackle the trickiest public policy questions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sofia Vasilopoulou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the most heavily reported outcomes of last week’s elections for the European Parliament has been the “revolution on the right” – the large numbers of people who opted to vote for far right, Eurosceptic…Sofia Vasilopoulou, Lecturer, Department of Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/272022014-05-27T11:52:51Z2014-05-27T11:52:51ZEd Miliband is damaged goods, and Labour needs to act quickly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49553/original/d8mfzvds-1401191293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Last supper for Ed Miliband?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/search?src=typd&amp;q=%23edeats">@GeneralBoles</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The knives are out for Ed Miliband and he only has himself to blame. In the wake of the elections, despite <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/davehillblog/2014/may/24/london-localgovernment">doing well in London</a> in the council elections and gaining seven seats in the European parliamentary elections, senior party figures are now <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10856434/Ed-Miliband-faces-catastrophe-at-general-election.html">openly criticising him</a>. </p>
<p>One Labour shadow minister described him as “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elction-results-2014-ed-miliband-is-damaged-goods-says-shadow-minister-9432143.html">damaged goods</a>”. The most damning attack was personal and came from a senior Labour figure, who said that Miliband “looks weird, sounds weird, is weird”. It may be that it was <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23edeats&amp;mode=photos">the bacon butty</a> that did for Ed in the end. </p>
<p>Labour’s election campaign, orchestrated by Miliband but with no single person in control, was an unmitigated disaster. The televised party political broadcast was highly entertaining but a complete waste of money. It amounted to a personal attack on the Tories and Lib Dems with Nick Clegg singled out for special treatment. There was nothing whatsoever about Labour policy. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/41_zFHcG1R0?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p>In the run-up to the elections, many of Labour’s initiatives were seen either as gimmicks or wide of the mark. Plans for patients to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27377978">see their GP within 48 hours</a> were seen through by the electorate. We can all remember what happened the last time: practices would not allow appointments to be made more than 48 hours in advance, thus ticking another “target met” box. </p>
<p>Then there was blunder of the poster accusing the Tories of increasing VAT on food – which is zero rated. Let’s not forget also that Ed, protector of the ordinary man, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/20/ed-miliband-underestimating-family-food-bill">didn’t know the cost of his own weekly shop</a>; but that’s hardly surprising, given the Milibands’ non-ordinary joint salaries of around £340,000. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=301&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=301&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=301&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=378&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=378&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49549/original/nb5jbfhs-1401190808.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=378&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Only three items on this poster are VAT rated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2014/05/only-three-of-the-items-in-labours-vat-advert-are-subject-to-vat.html">Conservative Home</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>All about Ed</h2>
<p>The biggest criticism being levelled at Miliband by is own party is the narcissistic nature of the “all about Ed” campaign. It amounted to a political one-man band, with Ed banging the drum, crashing the cymbals, and blowing the Labour trumpet. There were no double-acts with members of the shadow cabinet such as Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, or Yvette Cooper – who many see at the <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100117076/yvette-cooper-the-next-leader-of-the-labour-party/">Labour leader in waiting</a>. That was a serious error of judgement. No leader is bigger than the party, as Margaret Thatcher discovered to her peril.</p>
<p>Labour, and the Tories for that matter, seriously underestimated to rise of UKIP and how well they would perform. Nigel Farage has managed to woo voters away from both parties. At first glance that’s quite an achievement, but given the two main parties are firmly in the middle ground it’s not that big a deal. All Labour seemed able to do was dismiss UKIP as a single-policy party. Now it is quick to point out that Farage and co have done well. There’s nothing like stating the obvious after the event. </p>
<p>If Labour is serious about replacing Ed Miliband as leader they need to be decisive and do it now; the election clock is ticking. The big question for Labour is how to regain lost ground. The old Ballsian rhetoric of “<a href="http://www.edballs.co.uk/blog/?p=1545">austerity isn’t working</a>” simply won’t wash. Austerity was unpopular and painful, but the Tories will argue that it was necessary and, more importantly, it worked. </p>
<p>Not so long ago we were looking at deep recession. Then house building was stimulated by the Help to Buy scheme. Now the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27251552">construction industry is in full swing</a> – in the south east at least – and there is talk of the housing market overheating. It wasn’t so long ago that we were looking at sterling-euro parity, now <a href="http://www.currencywatch.co.uk/index.php/today-s-news/264-euro-to-dollar-and-pound-sterling-gbp-forecasts-45435">sterling is strong</a>, perhaps too strong. The next thing we will see is a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27563346">steady increase in interest rates</a>, probably up to a 3% plateau.</p>
<h2>Is anyone listening?</h2>
<p>Based on the results of the local elections, the BBC <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/labur-likely-short-commons-majority-general-election">has estimated</a> that Labour would win the next election, but would fall short of an overall majority, with 322 seats. The Conservatives would come second with 255, the Liberal Democrats with 45 and other parties including UKIP 28. </p>
<p>Of course we all know the turnout next May will be higher than 36%, those too apathetic to vote last Thursday will be spurred into action. The voting pattern will also be different, in local elections people tend to focus on local issues and they also provide an opportunity to teach the parties a lesson if they are thought to be ignoring public opinion. Next May voters will be very aware they are choosing a party that is capable of governing Britain for the next five years. </p>
<p>Labour, and the other parties, have a lot of work to do over the summer. Come the autumn the campaigning will begin in earnest. Any party reshuffles need to be put in train and bedded down before then. As things stand the future does not look bright for Ed Miliband, but will Labour have to courage to act decisively, or will they carry on backing a political donkey? </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The knives are out for Ed Miliband and he only has himself to blame. In the wake of the elections, despite doing well in London in the council elections and gaining seven seats in the European parliamentary…Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/272012014-05-26T20:42:59Z2014-05-26T20:42:59ZFront National’s victory will have a serious impact on both France and the future of Europe<p>As far as Marine Le Pen is concerned: “The people have spoken.” The leader of the Front National, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/25/marine-le-pen-confidence-proves-vindicated-front-national">which has taken 25% of the French vote</a> in the European Parliamentary elections claims her party is now “number one” in France. </p>
<p>“Our people demand one type of politics,” she told jubilant supporters. “They want French politics by the French, for the French, with the French. They don’t want to be led any more from outside, to submit to laws … Tonight is a massive rejection of the European Union.”</p>
<p>And a ripple effect appears to have already reached the Elysée Palace. Embattled French president, Francois Hollande, called a crisis meeting of his cabinet after which he gave a televised statement in which he outlined what appears to be a <a href="http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0526/619618-european-parliament-elections/">major shift in attitude</a>, saying that the EU had become “remote and incomprehensible” to many people.</p>
<p>“This cannot continue. Europe has to be simple, clear, to be effective where it is needed and to withdraw from where it is not necessary,” he said. </p>
<p>The FN has become the biggest party in France for the first time in its long history. With more than 25% of the vote, there is no doubt that Le Pen’s party is the clear winner in these elections, with other parties, moderate or radical, apparently failing to counter the “Blue Marine wave”. The FN has further demonstrated its ability to perform well in all areas of the country and its growing strength within parts of the electorate. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2014/05/25/le-fn-obtient-ses-meilleurs-scores-chez-les-jeunes-et-les-ouvriers_4425625_823448.html">According to exit polls</a>, the FN gathered 43% of the workers’ vote, 38% of employees in the service industry and 37% of the unemployed vote, reinforcing its image as the main workers’ party. It has also polled extremely well with the young – up to 30% of under-35s compared to “only” 21% of over-60s. This confirms an electoral shift accelerated under Marine Le Pen’s leadership.
However, while a superficial analysis of the early electoral data certainly points to an “earthquake” in French politics, a cold-headed analysis provides a more nuanced, albeit worrying, picture.</p>
<p>First, it is worth repeating that European elections are <a href="https://theconversation.com/eu-election-low-key-campaigns-from-big-two-give-fn-a-chance-to-win-in-france-25783">second-order elections</a>. Radical parties tend to perform better thanks to a combination of protest vote and abstention. Therefore, it is difficult to make any long-term predictions until it is clear how much of this vote represented a protest and how much was a call for more far right policies and politics. It will also be illuminating to see what the drivers behind these votes are. Indeed, a protest against an EU in serious need of democratic reform would be less dramatic than a vote based on the nativist feelings core to the FN’s ideological message.</p>
<p>It is also worth keeping in mind that the FN will have little power in the European Parliament as it is unlikely it will form strong enough alliances to trigger dramatic change. However, it would be wrong to assume that their performance will not have a deep political impact. If a large enough alliance is formed, this will allow the party and its allies to raise the necessary funds to step up their anti-EU campaigns. More worryingly, it will give the FN a stronger voice and legitimacy, which have proven key to its mainstreaming over the past three decades.</p>
<p>The FN’s success among workers and the young must also be put into perspective. As various studies have shown, the young, the poorly educated and those who consider themselves to be lowest on the social ladder are also those most likely to abstain. <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/2012/research/EN.pdf">In 2009</a>, 70.9% of 18-24 year-olds and 64.3% of 25-39 year-olds did not vote (compared to 50% for 55-and-overs). Similarly, 64.1% of manual workers abstained, as did 72% of the unemployed and 66.1% of students. If this weekend’s elections reflect similar figures, the FN’s consolidation of its status as the main workers’ party will appear much less impressive. </p>
<h2>Disaster for mainstream</h2>
<p>What is unlikely to change with new data is the poor performance of the mainstream parties. As expected, the moderate right and left will find very little solace in the results. The centre-right UMP came in second but fared poorly (20.3%). The results confirm that the FN will remain a serious contender for the right-wing vote for years to come. The Parti Socialiste’s results reflect its dismal levels of popularity. If the local elections’ warning was not clear enough, it is now beyond doubt that Hollande’s presidency will leave <a href="http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/socialistes-affliges/260514/le-club-des-socialistes-affliges-considere-avec-beaucoup-d-inquietude-le-resultat-des-elec">a devastating legacy</a> for the moderate left in France. With no radical policy change in sight, the only hope for the PS in the 2017 presidential elections will rest with the moderate left-wing electorate casting their vote in fear of a repeat of the 2002 elections. In this case, the UMP candidate could well be the one left stranded, with a FN/PS stand-off in the second round. </p>
<p>At the same time, alternatives on the left have failed to gain momentum and capitalise on the disappointed socialist electorate. The Greens managed a decent 8.7%, but suffered from years of division and their alliance within the first PS government. With 6.6%, the Front de Gauche failed once more in its bid to compete with the FN – the disillusioned left-wing electorate resisted their populist appeal (only 8% of workers turned to Melenchon’s party).</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/distrust-of-the-political-system-not-the-far-right-is-real-threat-to-our-european-future-26662">With the media constantly portraying the FN as the alternative to the loathed system</a>, the reaction of other parties will prove crucial to the fate of France and its role in the EU. Without major strategic readjustments on both the moderate left and right, it is likely we will see these parties chase the FN’s electorate. While the return of Nicolas Sarkozy could potentially bring some FN supporters to the UMP, it is unlikely the PS will gain much by playing a more right-wing card. </p>
<p>A more complicated strategy aimed at those who abstained could be more fruitful, as it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-and-fn-won-only-7-of-votes-this-is-not-an-earthquake-24810">abstention which has become the largest “party” in France</a>. However, it would be a mistake to assume that this is a homogeneous group, or that their alienation could be easily bridged. The deep distrust in liberal democracy that runs deep in France will take much time and effort to overcome, something which parties are no longer willing to invest. Yet it is only that democratic revival which will prevent the Front National from setting the agenda in this race to the bottom.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aurelien Mondon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As far as Marine Le Pen is concerned: “The people have spoken.” The leader of the Front National, which has taken 25% of the French vote in the European Parliamentary elections claims her party is now…Aurelien Mondon, Lecturer in French Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271932014-05-26T17:49:50Z2014-05-26T17:49:50ZThis election was to be different, but once again democracy in Europe is the big loser<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49461/original/77zp27zy-1401119817.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=78%2C110%2C921%2C573&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of the attempts made by the parliament to engage young voters. Oddly, it doesn&#39;t appear to have been a roaring success.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/">European Parliament</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“This time it’s different,” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UslDVJ2QSVM">promised</a> the European Parliament in an awareness campaign ahead of the May 2014 elections. And, judging by the headlines, it certainly has been different. Many in the media have termed the results a right-wing Eurosceptic “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27559714">earthquake</a>”, copying the <a href="http://www.ft.com/home/uk">metaphor</a> used by the French prime minister, Manuel Valls, to describe the performance of the Front National (FN).</p>
<p>In some countries, the populist and Eurosceptic radical right have indeed managed to make the ground shake beneath mainstream politicians’ feet. Although the circa <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-fr-2014.html">25%</a> gained by the FN wasn’t a surprise to anyone who has read an opinion poll from France recently, it is still striking to see this (former?) pariah party in first place for the first time. Its result represented not only a huge improvement on the 6.3% it received at the 2009 European Parliament (EP) elections, but was also well beyond Marine Le Pen’s very impressive 17.9% in the 2012 presidential election. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, across the Channel, UKIP’s result of around 27-28% – again, not a surprise to those following the polls – makes it the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/26/ukip-rise-no-flash-in-pan">first party</a> other than Labour and the Conservatives to come out on top in a national election in over a century. Of course, the acid test of its capacity to change the shape of the British party system will be next year at the general election (having received 16.1% in 2009, it crashed with just 3.1% and still no MPs at the 2010 general election). Nonetheless, as the <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Revolt-Right-Explaining-Extremism-Democracy-ebook/dp/B00J0A11IQ/ref=tmm_kin_title_0/277-9379085-4899461">recent book</a> by Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin shows, it is time to accept UKIP as much more than the “flash-in-the-pan” single-issue party we used to think it was.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=390&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=390&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=390&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=491&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=491&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49463/original/ymh8s84r-1401120683.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=491&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Le Pen: first, but no surprise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/remijdn/">Remi Noyon</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Other standout results for similar parties were in Denmark, where the Danish People’s Party led the way with <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-dk-2014.html">26.6%</a> of the vote – more than 10 points higher than its result in 2009 and double its 2011 general election performance – and in Sweden, where the Sweden Democrats (SD) saw its share of the vote rise from 3.3% in 2009 and 5.7% at the 2010 general election to <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-se-2014.html">9.7%</a> this time around.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, however, tales of a radical right “earthquake” are exaggerated. In the Netherlands, <a href="https://theconversation.com/geert-wilders-is-back-and-he-has-european-domination-on-his-mind-15775">Geert Wilders</a>’s Party for Freedom (PVV), took roughly <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-nl-2014.html">13.4%</a> – an increase on its 10.1% at the 2012 general election, but less than the 17% it received at the 2009 EP election. In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) appears to have scored <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-at-2014.html">just under 20%</a> - a lot more than its 12.7% in 2009, but slightly below the 20.5% it received at the 2013 general election. Similarly, in Finland, the Finns Party with <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-fi-2014.html">12.9%</a> improved on its 9.8% in 2009, but slipped a fair distance back from its 2011 general election result of 19.1%. In all three cases, these parties are in opposition and, given that mainstream governing parties have struggled more than usual in second-order elections during the post-2008 crisis, one might have expected radical right Eurosceptics to do better in these countries.</p>
<h2>Exaggerated earthquake</h2>
<p>In fact, despite the talk of a <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eurosceptics-and-far-right-surge-in-euro-elections-1.1808438">far-right surge</a>, it’s worth bearing in mind that – of the six parties that were considered guaranteed members of the much talked-about Alliance for Freedom (EAF) created by Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders last year – only two (the FN and FPÖ) saw their vote rise compared to 2009, while the other four (the PVV, the Slovak National party, Italy’s <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/05/06/lega-nords-euroscepticism-represents-political-opportunism-rather-than-a-deeply-held-ideological-stance-similar-to-ukip/">Northern League</a>, and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang) all lost votes. </p>
<p>And given that the Slovak party seems to have failed to secure any MEPs, this means the EAF will be looking for two other likeminded European parties to enable it to form an official group in the European Parliament (the regulations stipulate you must have at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 member states to do so). Sweden’s SD may be one of these, but other parties such as UKIP, the Finns Party and the Danish People’s Party have ruled out any formal alliance with the EAF. So, the EAF will probably have to go fishing for partners among some of the smaller right-wing Eurosceptic parties from Central and Eastern Europe.</p>
<p>The results by Eurosceptic parties further to the right (with whom the EAF won’t do business) are also a mixed bag. For example, while some newspapers <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/10-key-lessons-european-election-results">are claiming</a> that Jobbik did well in Hungary, in reality its <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-hu-2014.html">14.7%</a> share is well below the 20.8% they received in the recent general election and also slightly less than the 14.8% they scored in 2009. In Greece, it was a different story, with Golden Dawn improving on its 2012 general election result of 7% with <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-el-2014.html">9.4%</a> in their debut EP election. If <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nte1UtRww_k">this incident</a> is anything to go by, how its three new MEPs seek to capture the limelight in the parliament should be one of the more unsavoury sideshows of the next few years.</p>
<p>As I explained in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/rise-of-euroscepticism-masks-general-apathy-about-eu-vote-25984">recent column</a>, Euroscepticism does not denote a homogenous ideological category or a single party family. Despite the tendency to associate it with the right, it also includes parties of the Left and several of these did well in the elections. In Greece, Syriza topped the poll with <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-el-2014.html">26.6%</a>, while in Ireland Sinn Féin scored <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-ie-2014.html">17%</a> – placing it firmly in third place, more than 10 points ahead of the Irish Labour Party which continues to pay a high price for its participation in an austerity-promoting coalition government led by the centre-right Fine Gael.</p>
<h2>Rising star</h2>
<p>Moving onto a more ideologically fluid Eurosceptic party which was expected to do well, Italy’s M5S got <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-it-2014.html">21.1%</a> of the vote. This has been cast by the Italian media (which has a strong anti-M5S bias) as a failure for the party. However, while its result is less than its stunning 2013 debut general election total of 25.6%, it is still a good performance from a party that has <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-italys-streets-five-star-still-twinkles-14825">struggled with growing pains</a> due to its sudden success and whose demise was being (gleefully) predicted by many Italian commentators this time last year. That said, a star of these elections has to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/springtime-for-matteo-renzi-italys-untested-political-tyro-23323">Matteo Renzi</a>, who led the governing pro-EU Democratic Party to more than 40% - the best ever performance in a national election by a centre-left Italian party.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=705&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=705&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=705&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=886&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=886&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49464/original/j8rpvmps-1401120875.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=886&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renzi: new kid on the bike.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/palazzochigi/">Palazzochigi</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>While Renzi may be the star in Italy, however, the real winner (or, perhaps, loser, depending on your viewpoint) of these elections across the continent is not the Eurosceptic or the Europhile, but – once again – the Euro-abstainer. The “this time it’s different” slogan had been devised to encourage people to vote, with the promise that the candidate of the winning coalition of parties in the EP would be the next President of the European Commission. </p>
<p>However, in terms of participation, this time hasn’t really been very different at all. Sure, for the first time since EP elections began in 1979, turnout did not decline. But its increase by around 0.1% to 43.1% is hardly – to use the term in vogue – “an earthquake”. And the real problem for the legitimacy of the European Parliament is that while journalists and people like me might be getting very excited about the changes in vote shares for parties, the majority of our fellow Europeans simply don’t care.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan McDonnell receives funding from the European Union&#39;s Marie Curie Fellowship.</span></em></p>“This time it’s different,” promised the European Parliament in an awareness campaign ahead of the May 2014 elections. And, judging by the headlines, it certainly has been different. Many in the media…Duncan McDonnell, Marie Curie Fellow, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271972014-05-26T12:07:31Z2014-05-26T12:07:31ZEurope’s leaders must now strike out at the xenophobes <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49458/original/76wkn2cs-1401104532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Manuel Valls has called on &#39;all responsible leaders&#39; to respond.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/partisocialiste/">Parti Socialiste</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The message, it seems, is clear. European citizens are at best unimpressed with mainstream politics, at worst outright dismissive of it. The French Front National (FN) and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) have grabbed the headlines, but disaffection is apparently the order of the day more or less everywhere. </p>
<p>In France Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister, was quick to go on record as calling the FN victory “a shock, an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/26/manel-valls-front-national-european-elections">earthquake</a>” before stressing that it was something that “all responsible leaders must respond to”. His sentiments were echoed around the continent by centrist politicians desperately trying to claim that they understood.</p>
<p>But what is there to understand from all this? First of all, it’s worth remembering that the “earthquake” came in different forms and, indeed, didn’t really come at all in some places; while the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304811904579584241197201458?mg=reno64-wsj&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304811904579584241197201458.html">Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party</a> became the biggest party in Denmark, the Freedom Party in Austria (FPÖ) finished third – certainly an improvement on 2009, but not quite what it had hoped for. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-25/greece-s-syriza-leading-in-eu-elections-exit-poll-shows.html">Syrzia</a>, a left-wing anti-establishment party, led the way in Greece, but it stands for quite different politics to the FN and UKIP (and indeed the FPÖ). Geert Wilders’s PVV finished only third in the Netherlands, with a vote share notably down on where it was in 2009, while the voice of anti-establishment politics in Italy – Beppe Grillo and his Five Star Movement – came in well behind the party of Prime Minister <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/italys-renzi-triumphs-eu-vote-302388">Matteo Renzi</a>. In Germany, meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/german-left-blames-cdu-populist-surge-302382">Alternative for Germany</a> (AfD) entered the European Parliament with seven MEPs, but Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU topped the polls by some distance.</p>
<h2>Can’t return to business as usual</h2>
<p>There is much for Europe’s pro-EU politicians to be worried about here, and the message is clearly one of dissatisfaction. But it is not a coherent one. The fact that UKIP rejects working with the FN out of hand indicates the incompatibility of their respective messages, while the German AfD will not be keen on working with either of them. Syrzia leads a group of disaffected left parties that will be at pains to attack all of those three (as well as parties in the centre) at every opportunity. The deeper you look, the more the peculiarities of each of the new dissidents comes to the fore. </p>
<p>The danger here is that politicians in the European Parliament will – despite their rhetoric to the contrary – soon return to business as normal. The EP remains in the thrall of a grand coalition of centrist parties; the dissidents will shout and scream from the fringes, and they will soon claim that, once again, the concerns that they raise are simply being ignored. The way that the EP works ensures that they are almost certain to be right. EPP leader Jean-Claude Juncker has a point when he claims that “we will have a clear pro-European majority in this house”, but that looks suspiciously like a return to the day-to-day process of pushing European integration forward. And that plays right in to the hands of recalcitrants of all colours. </p>
<p>The challenge for pro-EU forces is now twofold. A majority of voters do indeed still regard the EU as a “good thing”. But many of them remain less than enamoured with the performances of their (national and international) politicians. These voters still remain loyal to the cause. For now. Politicians in national parliaments and in the EP have to find a way of explaining why the EU is a project worth persevering with, why the messages that the critics espouse are humbug and a language that resonates with the masses. They need to avoid the platitudes and to engage with the worries that seem to be engulfing much of their electorates. That, even with a fair wind, is not going to be easy.</p>
<p>Secondly, mainstream politicians need to tackle their critics head on. This is, of course, easier said than done, but they can no longer let their new(ish) challengers set the tone on delicate issues such as immigration or freedom of movement. They have to stand up and tell the populists, the protectionists, the old-school nationalists and the xenophobes that they are wrong. They also have to explain to voters why, at times, they are wrong too. The evidence is out there, the real challenge for the centre-left and the centre-right is how to get that message across to those who currently aren’t listening.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The message, it seems, is clear. European citizens are at best unimpressed with mainstream politics, at worst outright dismissive of it. The French Front National (FN) and the United Kingdom Independence…Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271962014-05-26T11:05:54Z2014-05-26T11:05:54ZRight-wing flames that have licked Europe fanned by lack of education<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49457/original/pw85ckkc-1401101416.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart casual? A member of the Magyar Garda (Hungarian Guard). </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/almodozo/">habeebee</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Europe wakens to a wave of newly elected right-wing Members of the European Parliament, our multi-racial continent needs to understand what are the psychological roots of this movement.
We have some comprehension of the economic and social origins – including a devastated economy with crippling levels of unemployment, and new waves of immigration into and within the continent. </p>
<p>Taken together, these make a heady mix, so does psychology add anything to the analysis? – Yes, it does. </p>
<p>Common to many of the right wing parties is prejudice against immigrants and certain racial groups. For instance, Italian Senator Roberto Calderoli, a prominent member of the anti-immigration Northern League party, in 2013 described black Italian government minister Cecile Kyenge as an “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23319256">orangutan</a>”.</p>
<h2>The London gap</h2>
<p>In the UK, the remarkable rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) was made even more notable by the huge gap between its success in London (7%) versus the rest of England (20%). Suzanne Evans, a former UKIP councillor who lost her London seat, explained that the “educated, cultured and young” of the capital was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/ukip-councillor-blames-poor-london-polls-cultured-elite">less likely to support UKIP</a>.</p>
<p>And indeed, psychological research does support this view: <a href="http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/01/04/0956797611421206.abstract">lower educational attainment is strongly associated with prejudice</a>. In London, with its higher than average level of education, prejudice is therefore less likely and so the attraction of anti-immigration parties like UKIP is diminished. </p>
<p>But why should lower intelligence make you more likely to sign up to extreme right ideologies? One answer, first proposed in the early 1950s by social psychologist Gordon Allport, was that prejudice reflects a style of thinking about anything.</p>
<h2>Order, structure</h2>
<p>This style of thinking has been described as “Need for Closure” (<a href="https://biblio.ugent.be/input/download?func=downloadFile&amp;recordOId=2109466&amp;fileOId=2116958">NFC</a>) which has been defined as a desire to have a clear answer to any problem or topic, spurred by a real discomfort with any confusion or ambiguity. </p>
<p>Two aspects of need for closure are <em>urgency</em> and <em>permanence</em>. Urgency means that people want quick and definite answers to problems and permanence means that once given, the answer should be fixed and unchangeable – and hence not open to change in the light of new information or ideas. </p>
<p>People who have a high need for closure prefer order and structure in their lives, as well as predictability. They tend to want clear and quick answers to problems and feel intense discomfort with ambiguity or situations where there is no clear answer, or where there are different interpretations. They also tend to be close-minded and don’t like to have their knowledge and beliefs challenged. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=398&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=398&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=398&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=501&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=501&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49453/original/qmt6s9d7-1401100404.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=501&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Front National supporters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/blandinelc/">blandinelc</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Need for closure tends to produce what is known as “essentialist thinking” – which means creating simple categories – for example “blacks” – members of whom automatically have characteristics associated with the category. This easy and quick thinking habit avoids the need for any more complex analysis of individuals: if high NFC people are faced with contrary evidence to their quick categorization – eg a member of the out-group who is better educated than they are - they experience this as very uncomfortable and tend to shy away from it. </p>
<p>High NFC individuals are also very attracted to authoritarian ideologies because such ideologies satisfy their deepest psychological needs for <a href="http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/20/6/349.abstract">certainty, quick solutions and unchanging, permanent answers</a>.</p>
<h2>Mix and learn</h2>
<p>With <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/25/marine-le-pen-confidence-proves-vindicated-front-national">one quarter of French voters</a> voting for a far-right party, for instance, it is clear that Europe is facing a crisis of massive proportions. Are there any solutions? One is to ensure meaningful day-to-day contact between different racial groups – easy racial stereotypes tend to be weakened when prejudiced people are faced with the stereotype-busting individuality of neighbours and workmates. And the second is education. </p>
<p>Education builds IQ and IQ reduces prejudice – though obviously not on the part of some bright but ruthless far right party leaders. Educational also helps people <a href="http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/05/30/0956797611433877">think more abstractly</a>, and if you get someone to think about a problem in more abstract terms, their prejudice towards the out-group is temporarily diminished.</p>
<p>If Europe is going to survive against this massive anti-Europe and anti-immigrant surge, then it has to invest in good education. This is a long-term solution, clearly, but the current devastation of education provision in countries such as Greece means that Europe is going to have a hard time facing up to this challenge. The “need for closure” and its easy, scapegoating, solutions could drive Europe to a very unfortunate place unless the continent invests in education and its economy. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian H Robertson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Europe wakens to a wave of newly elected right-wing Members of the European Parliament, our multi-racial continent needs to understand what are the psychological roots of this movement. We have some…Ian H Robertson, Professor of Psychology, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271572014-05-26T04:28:04Z2014-05-26T04:28:04ZFar-right rises in European Parliament elections, but is it a 'Euroquake'?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49422/original/mc4mmt3b-1401075506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Results in the European Parliament elections so far indicate a slide towards the Eurosceptic and right-wing parties, such as Nigel Farage&#39;s UK Independence Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Gerry Penny</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some 400 million eligible voters, 751 seats, 28 countries: a portrait of true democracy at work – unless they held an election and nobody came. Average voter turnout in the weekend’s European Parliament (EP) elections was an <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/turnout.html">estimated 43.09%</a>. That’s a stunning 0.09% improvement on 2009.</p>
<p>In the least-developed areas of eastern and southern Europe, enthusiasm for democracy is waning. In Croatia, which joined as recently as July 2013, turnout was an apathetic 25.06%. In Slovenia, it was under 21%; in Romania, 32.16%. Despite having their bank deposits frozen in 2013, only 43.97% of Cypriots showed up at the polls, compared with 59.4% in 2009. Greek voters, fired up by two years of harsh austerity, produced a modest turnout of 58.20%.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-election-results">Results</a> so far indicate a slide towards the Eurosceptic and far-right parties. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party (UKIP) has made dramatic gains in both England and Scotland. UKIP is estimated to have won <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results">27.5% of the vote</a>, giving it 23 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), versus 25.4% for Labour and 23.94% for the Conservatives.</p>
<p>The Liberal Democrats, led by Britain’s deputy prime minster, Nick Clegg, have been the big losers. The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats in the 2009 election, but have won only one seat at this stage.</p>
<p>The most traumatised victims of this “rightslide” have been mainstream politicians and powerful vested interests. Jean-Pierre Bel, the president of the French Senate and Socialist Party MP, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/26/world/europe/turnout-in-european-parliament-election-hits-record-low.html">described</a> the results as a “real trauma”.</p>
<h2>Keep calm and carry on</h2>
<p>Let’s place these results in perspective. First, voters care little for the European parliamentary elections, as consistently low turnouts demonstrate. Since the EP’s first direct elections in 1979, voter turnout has declined with each succeeding election (until the small increase this year). In Britain, turnout has fallen <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results">below 35%</a> (34.19%). You would need to be a serious EP buff – a rare bird indeed – to name your MEP.</p>
<p>Second, for most voters, EP elections are simply pro or anti-European polls. Unlike national elections, they are not about controversial political issues, such as health, education, pensions, income tax and housing costs. Consequently, it’s easy to squander votes on fringe parties and send a protest message to the mainstream political parties in Berlin, Paris, Rome and London.</p>
<p>Third, with the exception of German chancellor Angela Merkel, not a single political leader in Europe survived the Eurozone crisis and the austerity regimes it ushered in. Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi are all long gone.</p>
<p>Despite strong results in Britain and France, the European right has not been uniformly successful. For example, in <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-nl-2014.html">the Netherlands</a>, Geert Wilders’ anti-EU, anti-immigration Party for Freedom experienced a decline, falling to 12.2% of the vote, compared with 17% in 2009.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=900&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=900&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=900&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1130&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1130&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49424/original/zpvjg7k5-1401076422.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1130&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National led the French vote in the European Parliament elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Yoan Valat</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, in France, the mainstream conservative and socialist parties have been sent reeling. On <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-fr-2014.html">preliminary figures</a>, the far-right Front National, led by Marine Le Pen, has won 25.4% of the vote, well ahead of the conservative Union for a Popular Movement (21%) and French president François Hollande’s Socialist Party on 14.5%.</p>
<p>Again, some perspective. Only about 43.5% of French eligible voters turned out. The Front National received just over one-quarter of 43.5%, in other words. The rest of the French population was focused on where the real action is: the French Open tennis at Roland Garros.</p>
<p>Conversely, <a href="http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en/country-results-el-2014.html">in Greece</a>, the left-wing parties made the biggest gains. The Syriza party claimed victory with 26.51% of the vote, compared with the conservative New Democracy’s 23.13%. However, the anti-immigration Golden Dawn polled almost 10% (9.34%) of the vote.</p>
<p>Overall, what the election results tell us is that the outcomes are deeply rooted in national and provincial politics.</p>
<h2>‘Terrifying’ the political establishment?</h2>
<p>Farage has launched a triumphant broadside at Britain’s mainstream parties, claiming that UKIP’s results have <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10855972/Ukip-storms-European-elections.html">“terrified”</a> the political establishment. Marine Le Pen has made <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/national-fronts-le-pen-urges-dissolution-french-parliament-184055846.html">similar claims</a> for the Front National in France.</p>
<p>Not so fast. Austerity elections unleash bitter, justifiable voter resentment. In fact, mainstream parties will be relieved that voters have got this off their collective chests. Britain has a general election in 2015, after all.</p>
<p>Centre-left and centre-right parties will continue to pander to the far-left and far-right in order to win their votes back. That means criticism of the European Union in public; it means opposing immigration; but it also means that the political professionals will devote considerable resources to tearing down the minor parties.</p>
<p>After all, political professionals did not get where they are by playing softball.</p>
<p>Finally, this EP election will be remembered for making Farage and Le Pen major political figures. But the future success of UKIP and the Front National will depend largely upon how expertly these leaders and their cadres transform their parties from fringe actors to mainstream, professional political players in a national election that truly “matters”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Remy Davison&#39;s Chair is funded by the EU Commission.</span></em></p>Some 400 million eligible voters, 751 seats, 28 countries: a portrait of true democracy at work – unless they held an election and nobody came. Average voter turnout in the weekend’s European Parliament…Remy Davison, Jean Monnet Chair in Politics and Economics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/271292014-05-23T09:12:54Z2014-05-23T09:12:54ZTriumph of UKIP asks tough questions of big three Westminster parties<p>It is clear from the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/26/european-election-results-ukip-victory-uk-live">European</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27531094">local election</a> results that there are some interesting and fairly nuanced things happening.</p>
<p>Labour has not done as well as it expected to do – and there are a lot of people in the Labour ranks who are beginning to get <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4097882.ece">nervous about Ed Miliband’s leadership</a> with one year to go until the general election. Voters see him as neither strong nor decisive enough. He comes across as a bit of an awkward amateur.</p>
<p>Cameron certainly has more gravitas and looks more comfortable with leadership. With Miliband the big question is whether the Labour Party can afford to ditch him with only 12 months left before the election. They probably won’t.</p>
<p>Cameron is safe, but the big question for the Tories is whether they will be able to win back the support from the right of the party which has migrated to UKIP. Unsurprisingly, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27567744">UKIP did even better in the European election</a> than in the local council polls, taking 27 per cent of the vote and even managing to pick up a seat in Scotland. </p>
<p>This will put pressure on the Conservatives over what they intend to do about Europe. In turn, the right of the party, the Eurosceptic wing, will put pressure on Cameron. He’s on the record as wanting to campaign for a yes vote in the planned referendum on EU membership, while a lot of his party are quite openly in the no camp. Many of them are now saying an earlier EU referendum than the planned 2017 vote should be sought.</p>
<p>But what the Conservatives have going for them, as we move into general election mode, is the economy. It is recovering and now healthier that the economies of many of the UK’s European partners. Labour has been campaigning hard on austerity and cost of living but that becomes far more difficult to sell when the economy is recovering.</p>
<p>As for the Lib Dems, they won’t be surprised by these results. They will pretend to be disappointed but privately they were expecting to do badly. They will know that in the eyes of a lot of the people who voted for them in 2010, this is payback time for four years of <a href="http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/have-the-lib-dems-kept-their-promises/5980">broken promises</a>. In 12 months’ time they are highly likely to be absolutely decimated at the polls – back to 1970s levels when really they had to rebuild from scratch.</p>
<p>People have begun to see them as unprincipled, which is a disaster for their brand. But ever since the 2010 election when there were nearly two weeks of to-ing and fro-ing between Labour and the Conservatives, they have given the impression of a party that has tasted power for the first time and is desperate to hang on to it at all costs.</p>
<p>Of course UKIP will be over the moon about these results. But the question is how will it build on this success to become a proper political force?</p>
<p>Hitherto it has been a two-policy party: focusing on the EU and immigration. They will obviously continue to bang those drums (even more loudly now) in Brussels and Strasbourg. And UKIP spokespeople say that locally they have a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22396690">whole suite of policies</a>. We’ll now see how strong they are at a local level – and that may prove significant in determining whether they can make a mark in elections to Westminster next year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is clear from the European and local election results that there are some interesting and fairly nuanced things happening. Labour has not done as well as it expected to do – and there are a lot of people…Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/257862014-05-22T12:48:21Z2014-05-22T12:48:21ZEU election: campaign dominated by austerity bad news for Irish government<p>The Republic of Ireland will be voting in the European Parliament elections on Friday May 23 – on the same day as the country holds its local elections. Ireland’s representation in the European Parliament is being reduced from 12 seats in 2009 to 11 seats, involving a reduction from four to three regional constituencies (Dublin; South; Midlands-North West). </p>
<p>The country is one of only two EU members (the other is Malta) that will be using the <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/single-transferable-vote/">Single Transferable Vote</a> system for the election. The STV is also used in the Northern Ireland constituency within the UK.</p>
<p>Since 2008, political debate in the Republic of Ireland has been dominated by the fall-out from the country’s banking crisis and recession. The crisis led to an EU bail-out package of €67.5 billion in November 2010 after which Ireland <a href="http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/the-week-ireland-gave-up-its-sovereignty-29796376.html">was effectively ruled</a> by the “Troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. A series of austerity budgets were imposed, first by a Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition government – and after they suffered a resounding defeat in the general election of 2011, by a Fine Gael-Labour Party coalition. </p>
<p>In December 2013 the country left the bail-out programme and was able to return to borrowing on the international financial markets. However, the government’s budget choices were still tightly constrained by the EU.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49121/original/6k7tccdy-1400658101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/ireland/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It might therefore be assumed that the issues of European integration and the economy would dominate the 2014 EP election. But while the state of the economy is undoubtedly the main issue in the 2014 EP election, there is much less of a debate around the European Union. This reflects the fact that there is still a <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/08/09/irish-mps-are-more-in-favour-of-european-integration-than-their-voters-which-may-be-a-result-of-the-under-representation-of-certain-social-groups-in-parliament/">wide political consensus in favour of the EU</a> in Ireland, coupled with a sense that there is no feasible alternative to EU participation. </p>
<p>Similarly, in relation to the economic issues, there is a broad political consensus that there are few realistic alternatives available to Ireland. Therefore, the debate centres more on minor differences of interpretation, with one or two issues becoming symbols of public acquiescence or opposition to austerity. Notably, the proposed <a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/homes-to-be-charged-for-water-by-end-2014-237840.html">introduction of water charges</a> is one which will resonate in both the local and European election campaigns, since the charges are being introduced as part of the requirements of the bail-out.</p>
<h2>Poll setback for governing coalition</h2>
<p>European Parliament elections <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/21/irelands-electoral-system-ensures-that-the-irish-european-parliament-elections-will-be-fought-on-the-basis-of-personalities-rather-than-parties/">almost always produce reversals for government parties</a>, and this seems set to continue in the Irish case in 2014. The two partners in the coalition government, the centre-right Fine Gael and the centre-left Labour Party, have been losing support steadily in opinion polls. </p>
<p>In particular, Labour is struggling as voters seem set to penalise it for supporting a programme of cut-backs. The polls indicate increased support for the main centre-right opposition party, Fianna Fáil, and for the left-wing and nationalist Sinn Féin party. In addition, independent candidates and minor parties usually do well in Irish elections.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=259&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=259&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=259&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=326&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=326&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49123/original/fh978qm7-1400662913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=326&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Predicted vote share and seats for 2014 European Parliament elections in Ireland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/03/21/irelands-electoral-system-ensures-that-the-irish-european-parliament-elections-will-be-fought-on-the-basis-of-personalities-rather-than-parties/#Author">Michael Costello via LSE Blogs</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, these lines of division amongst the key players do not map readily onto the key issues. As already noted, Fianna Fáil share very similar policy approaches to the economy and to the EU as do Fine Gael and Labour. Therefore, a successful election for Fianna Fáil is unlikely to produce any significant change of emphasis in Ireland’s relationship with Europe. A success for Sinn Féin would potentially be of greater import, as that party has been a more persistent critic of the austerity programmes and of the current direction of many EU policies.</p>
<p>The public response is likely to be conditioned by dissatisfaction with the economic conditions in the country, coupled with a feeling that there are few alternatives available. Certainly, while Ireland has traditionally been strongly supportive of European integration, recent polls have shown a decline in that support. </p>
<p>However, at the same time the polls indicate that voters still accept the broad approach as laid down by the Troika and the government. So while there is evidence of growing discontentment with the EU, this has reached nothing like the levels of Euroscepticism to be found in countries like the UK or Greece.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Holmes is a member of Next Left research group attached to the Federation of European Progressive Societies. He receives funding from the British Council.</span></em></p>The Republic of Ireland will be voting in the European Parliament elections on Friday May 23 – on the same day as the country holds its local elections. Ireland’s representation in the European Parliament…Michael Holmes, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Liverpool Hope UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/266752014-05-22T05:24:03Z2014-05-22T05:24:03ZEU election: is UKIP a political earthquake or just a tremor?<p>Based on growing polling evidence, it is highly likely that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) will top the national poll in the European elections. Even though historically UKIP has <a href="https://theconversation.com/euro-success-for-ukip-unlikely-to-translate-to-domestic-arena-22129">over-performed</a> in European elections, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm">coming second in 2009</a>, this would be a remarkable achievement for a party which at the previous general election secured <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/07/ukip-election-results">only 3.1% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>And a political earthquake it might just be. <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lastminute-polling-shows-surge-in-ukip-support-ahead-of-eu-and-local-elections-9405782.html">Last-minute polling</a> indicates that UKIP could be poised to humiliate the major parties. According to <a href="http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/21/update-latest-euro-election-voting-intention/">YouGov</a>, Labour are only just tied with UKIP at 27%, the Tories are limping into third at 23%, and the Lib Dems are jostling for fourth place with the Greens at around 10%. </p>
<p>Growing disillusionment with the main parties, whom UKIP dismisses as “out-of-touch elites”, undoubtedly explains some of the insurgent party’s apparent surge. But a much bigger factor has been the UKIP’s ability to tap into public concerns over immigration. Largely free from the stigma associated with far-right parties such as the BNP, UKIP has been able to broaden its appeal to those voters “left behind” and alarmed by the extent of social and economic change while retaining their mainstream political legitimacy on the European issue. </p>
<p>For the first time, UKIP has been able to link concerns about European immigration with voters’ latent uneasiness about EU membership. And as other competitors on the right of the spectrum have left the field, UKIP has seized on its electoral opportunity. </p>
<h2>Strange bedfellows</h2>
<p>But UKIP’s growth is built on an uneasy coalition. Its core support comes from a mix of financially insecure working-class men, who were traditionally loyal to Labour but who feel they have been “left behind” in modern Britain as mainstream parties chased the middle-class vote, and strategic Conservative sympathisers, who are keen to express hostility to the European Union but much less loyal to UKIP in general elections. </p>
<p>And unlike previous European elections, there is growing evidence of loyalty with almost 60% of mainly this “new electorate” <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10811622/General-election-2015-Will-this-be-Ukips-year.html">pledging support for the party</a> in next year’s general election.</p>
<p>Yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest that such a “political earthquake” might not permanently alter the foundations of the British party system to the extent some are suggesting. It remains to be seen how UKIP will fare in a general election campaign, which will bring much closer political, press and public attention to their broader policy platform. </p>
<p>UKIP’s more economically libertarian leanings, for instance, will be reflected in its 2015 manifesto and campaign – and if so, how they will play out among the traditional ex-Labour supporters it now relies on. Getting the balance right to ensure this uneasy coalition of voters remains intact will not be a simple task. </p>
<p>And while Farage has almost single-handedly carried the party from the electoral wilderness to the verge of unprecedented electoral success, this in itself could pose problems. Among the electorate, UKIP is Nigel Farage. Little is known about the other party beasts. So far Farage has batted away controversy over the party’s <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/21/ukip-posters_n_5185245.html">advertising</a> and dealt swiftly with UKIP affiliates who have been exposed for posting inflammatory and derogatory remarks on <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2614160/New-UKIP-probe-candidates-apparent-homophobic-racist-comments-Twitter-Facebook.html">social media</a>. But he has taken some personal blows – to say nothing of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10801652/Nigel-Farage-hit-by-an-egg-on-campaign-trail.html">eggs</a> – particularly over <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2630393/Nigel-Farage-challenged-LBC-expenses-racism-Ukip-candidate-wants-shoot-poofs-car-crash-interview-halted-spin-doctor-live-air.html">expenses</a>, that may over the long-term tarnish his anti-establishment message and reduce his appeal to UKIP’s “new electorate”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=474&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=474&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49162/original/vqhyq6rf-1400682898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=474&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/21/update-latest-euro-election-voting-intention/">Data and graphic courtesy of YouGov.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Growing pains</h2>
<p>Looming larger still is the problem of how UKIP will adapt to the rigours of campaigning for individual seats. After all, seats are what count in general elections, not national vote share – and this is UKIP’s main challenge. Generally speaking, the party’s vote is fairly dispersed; it does not yet have the local infrastructure, targeting experience and tactical nous to mount successful constituency campaigns. </p>
<p>Because of the party’s limited organisation, it simply does not know enough about who and where its voters are. This means it has no way to convert sympathisers or potential voters, sustain this support in the face of opposition activism, and then mobilise it in sufficient numbers to closely challenge mainstream incumbents. It’s therefore very possible that UKIP could poll more votes than the Liberal Democrats in the 2015 election but win no seats, with the beleagured Lib Dems retaining more than half of their current incumbents. </p>
<p>There are signs that UKIP is aware of this problem. It has selected in excess of 2,600 candidates for the 2014 local elections, three times as many as it fielded in 2010, with its strongest growth in the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/08/ukip-change-political-map-elections-data">traditional Labour strongholds</a>. Local success is more crucial for UKIP’s longevity than the battle for who tops the poll in the European election; real credibility and political presence will only be earned by winning seats, not just coming a close second across the country. </p>
<p>The wind is in UKIP’s favour. The boost of the European election and mainstream parties’ difficulty motivating their supporters to vote could allow many UKIP local candidates in by the back door. This is an opportunity UKIP candidates need to seize, and in large numbers, if the party is to mount an serious effort in the general election. Only then will the seismic analogies already being used to tell UKIP’s story really be deserved.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cutts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Based on growing polling evidence, it is highly likely that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) will top the national poll in the European elections. Even though historically UKIP has over-performed in European…David Cutts, Reader in Political Science, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/257832014-05-22T05:23:37Z2014-05-22T05:23:37ZEU election: low-key campaigns from big two give FN a chance to win in France<p>France’s relationship with the EU appears paradoxical given the contrast between the traditional pro-EU involvement of French elites and regular expressions of reticence, such as the opposition to the Draft Constitutional Treaty <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4592243.stm">rejected by referendum</a> in 2005. </p>
<p>As a result of this paradox, the national narratives for supporting French membership to the EU suffer from progressive erosion and <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027046/france-is-the-new-cauldron-of-eurosceptic-revolution/">Euroscepticism is subtly gaining ground</a>. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/24/trust-eu-falls-record-low">Support for the EU</a> also has suffered, as in most of the other member states, from the on-going economic and financial crisis. The difficulties to overcome, as well as the growing gap between France and Germany, have been pointed to by Eurosceptic forces who criticise the lack of genuine protection offered by the EU. The argument is two-fold: globalisation is generally perceived as being as much of a threat as the enlargement of the EU.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=294&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=294&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=294&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=370&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=370&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49140/original/n98vcm72-1400671963.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=370&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Europa.eu</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In retrospect, European integration is still perceived in France as a major accomplishment but the positive assessment of the EU, as well as the mix of support and tolerance among the population (the “permissive consensus”), both increasingly belong in the past. A majority now thinks the EU is a waste of taxpayer money and that the euro brings more disadvantage than benefits for France. There is also majority support for restoring border controls and a vast majority thinks the EU does not sufficiently protect France’s economic and commercial interests. But <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/12/chapter-2-crisis-of-confidence-in-the-eu-ending/">73% of people want France to remain part of the EU</a>. </p>
<p>This is precisely where the puzzle faced by the governing parties lies in France (and the main point that erodes their legitimacy on European issues). Haunted by the spectre of unemployment, rising inequality and a feeling of losing ground to globalisation, French public opinion remains trapped in its attachment to EU membership, its frustration with EU performances, and its distrust in further integration. French citizens hope for a better Europe, but they don’t want more of it. </p>
<p>As a result, governing parties: the Socialist Party (PS) and the conservative Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) – who defend EU policies but are internally divided about the EU – remain unable to adopt strong agendas, and have presented low-key platforms in the campaign. Abstention is <a href="https://theconversation.com/distrust-of-the-political-system-not-the-far-right-is-real-threat-to-our-european-future-26662">expected to be high</a>, around 60% and probably the highest in the history of European elections in France. Meanwhile the populist and openly <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-french-front-national-is-still-an-extreme-right-wing-party-20983">anti-EU Front National</a> (who command 24% of votes) are presently competing with the opposition UMP (who command 22%) for the first place in the election. </p>
<h2>Don’t mention the EU</h2>
<p>European elections, formerly organised within a single national district, have been <a href="http://europedecides.eu/candidates/election-lists/fr/">based on eight regional ad-hoc constituencies</a> since 2004. European elections are one of the few opportunities for small or isolated parties to secure seats. That is why Marine Le Pen for the Front National and her father, Jean-Marie - the former leader, run for re-election with a high chance of success. In total, <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/new-parties-likely-kingmakers-next-european-parliament-302093">there are 193 lists</a> with a mean of 24.1 lists by constituency (versus 20 in 2009). Many small parties and groups are taking the opportunity to voice their views during the campaign despite having little or no chance of obtaining seats. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=443&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=443&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=443&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=556&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=556&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49141/original/3566m6d6-1400672077.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=556&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll taken by BVA, May 15-16. Comparison is with EU elections 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/france-euroelections-2014/#.U3x6o_ldXsY">Graphic courtesy of Metapolls.net</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There has been a distinct lack of media interest in the EU electoral campaign, partly because of the relatively quiet campaigns run by mainstream parties. The UMP is bitterly divided, especially over the Schengen issue while the Socialist Party has kept a low profile a few weeks after a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/french-socialists-hit-hard-local-elections-201433021222854528.html">severe electoral defeat in city council elections</a> and as president Hollande hit rock bottom, being identified as the most <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/28/uk-france-hollande-poll-idUKBRE99R0TY20131028">unpopular president ever</a>. By contrast, the extreme left and right have launched strong attacks on the EU as indicated by the National Front simple slogan: “Oui à la France, non à Bruxelles”. </p>
<p>The ongoing bargains under the framework of the <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/">Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)</a> were especially raised both by extreme left and right leaders. As a result of the noise made by critical claims from the left and right-leaning candidates, any more pro-EU views (whether from centre-right parties or the Greens) have tended to be rather swamped.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>France’s relationship with the EU appears paradoxical given the contrast between the traditional pro-EU involvement of French elites and regular expressions of reticence, such as the opposition to the…Richard Balme, Professor, Sciences Po – USPCOlivier Rozenberg, Associate Professor at Sciences Po, Sciences Po – USPCLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/270422014-05-22T05:23:07Z2014-05-22T05:23:07ZTwitter oblivious to Farage's media mauling as EU polls open<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49175/original/h8cq3234-1400691638.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Great, now get me another one of those hashtag things.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/6841579891/in/photolist-gUrnAh-gUruzi-gUrnDy-du7WTC-du2nya-du7Yjd-du7Rfs-du7ZHf-du2hnK-du2gNR-du2q6R-du82hW-du2iYP-du2oVi-du7QBA-du2kfi-du2jyn-du81LC-du7TB7-du2kYp-du7T25-gpo9kS-6piiZq-bqyT4t-bqyTkZ-dnbeLa-bqV7eH-bqV75X-bqzb4v-cyGwZs-awe798-dv25nB-aVeZXz-635VpJ-awgJxm-aVf1eR-ar74pR-6atoiK-cyGvcm-8yUh6M-6W7dfV-5HT95f-n6ebyV-6WbeVS-6YZuk1-cyGsP9-edhMi1-6W7dFc-hhSZ8g-6gtNc6">European Parliament</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, appears to have stolen the show in the run up to the European elections. But while he has been pilloried in the papers, discussion about him on Twitter appears to have been somewhat more favourable.</p>
<p>Since campaigns for the European elections have been largely fronted by party leaders, we’ve investigated the level of mainstream media coverage given to David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage over the past six days. We’ve also looked at how much discussion has been going on about the leaders on Twitter over the same period.</p>
<p>We looked at all geo-tagged UK tweets and all national tabloid and broadsheet newspaper coverage of the Conservative, Lib Dem, Labour and UKIP leaders over the period. We analysed the amount of coverage and discussion each party leader received online and offline each day, and the proportion for each that was positive, negative or neutral.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=344&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=344&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=344&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=432&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=432&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49181/original/zrzjx7cd-1400699506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=432&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not a fan of the coalition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">@mitchlions</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While there has been plenty of mainstream newspaper coverage of major party leaders in the run-up to EU elections, particularly focusing on Farage, this has not been reflected in online discussions. For a start, political discussion only featured in about 2% of the almost 3m tweets we monitored.</p>
<p>Overall, both online and offline, Cameron and Farage have been the most prominent, trailed by Miliband and Clegg on both platforms.</p>
<p>But Farage in particular has been the subject of very different coverage in the online world and the more traditional press. While the UKIP leader’s media coverage spiked immediately following his now <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2014/05/what-racism-nigel-farage-s-disastrous-interview-lbc">infamous LBC interview</a>, his mentions on Twitter suggest that the online reaction was more of a slow burn, though the tone of the discussion did become slightly more negative. Perhaps the LBC episode failed to inflame passions online becuase it simply seemed to confirm what existing views of Farage – both for and against.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=361&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=361&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=361&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=454&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=454&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49177/original/ndyhfb45-1400698233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=454&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Party leader mentions in newspapers and on Twitter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Javier Sajuria &amp; Orlanda Ward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, the intensely negative coverage of Farage in the mainstream media has not been replicated online. If you only read the papers, you’d find that 31% of the comments made about Farage were negative, while between 20-21% of those made about Miliband, Clegg and Cameron could be classed as such.</p>
<p>But the proportion of tweets mentioning Farage that were negative was near identical to Miliband and Clegg at between 22% and 23%. Cameron got an easier ride with just 13% of tweets about him coding as negative. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=376&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=376&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=376&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=473&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=473&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49178/original/d598vfrs-1400698240.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=473&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tone of mentions of Nigel Farage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Javier Sajuria &amp; Orlanda Wards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>No less than four simultaneous campaigns have been bubbling away in the UK as we carried out this analysis. While the European and local elections have fired the starting gun for the general election, the Scottish independence debate is also in full swing, not to mention the addition of a possible EU referendum.</p>
<p>This has meant that discussion and coverage this week has been fragmented. Miliband has spent the week laying out his policy for the general election amid claims that he’s been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/18/ed-miliband-criticism-labour-campaign-tactics">missing in action</a> when it comes to European campaigning.</p>
<p>Cameron of course spent two days on a pro-union visit to Scotland, and much of rest of his exposure concentrated on the Chilcot Inquiry and coalition tensions. Clegg, meanwhile, has gained attention for all the wrong reasons: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nick-clegg-i-set-fire-to-a-cacti-collection-and-im-not-proud-of-it-9375806.html">drunken cactus shame</a>; <a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1262116/nick-clegg-and-michael-gove-kiss-and-make-up">losing his rag with Michael Gove</a> and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10839133/Dont-sneer-Andrew-Clegg-loses-his-cool-with-Marr-over-coalition-question.html">Andrew Marr</a>; Commons whispers of a Lib Dem deposition and some polls suggesting the party may well <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll?CMP=twt_gu">fall behind the Greens</a> in Europe.</p>
<p>In contrast, although reporting on Farage was dominated by the fallout from his LBC interview and questions about whether he is or isn’t a racist, it did stay focused on the strength of his party’s electoral prospects and his stance on immigration. What else is there to talk about?</p>
<p>Farage has become the focal point not just for the media, but for the major party leaders this week – that is, when they weren’t focusing on other elections. This short campaign has seen little coherent debate between parties and while their antics of course top the printed press agenda, our data suggests that they are not engaging debate among the wider public.</p>
<p>It also suggests that media lambasting of Farage doesn’t look set to change voters’ minds – at least not those on Twitter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Orlanda Ward receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Javier Sajuria receives funding from the Chilean Government Scholarships Scheme (Becas Chile)</span></em></p>Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, appears to have stolen the show in the run up to the European elections. But while he has been pilloried in the papers, discussion about him on Twitter…Orlanda Siow, Political Science PhD Candidate, UCLJavier Sajuria, Political Science PhD Candidate, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/266012014-05-21T13:00:58Z2014-05-21T13:00:58ZEU election: presidential poll adds intrigue to Lithuanian vote<p>Lithuanians will vote in the EU Parliamentary elections on the same day as the country holds its <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-lithuania-election-idUSBREA4B00920140512">second round run-off vote in the presidential election</a>. In the first round, which was held on May 11, the non-aligned incumbent president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, narrowly missed on on winning an absolute majority, although with 45.89% she was way out in front of other candidates. Her nearest rival was Zigmantas Balčytis, of the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) who won just 13.6% of the vote.</p>
<p>Most importantly the fact that Lithuanians will also be voting for their next president should raise the turn-out from the meagre 20.98% who voted in the EU elections in 2009. More than 50% of eligible citizens are expected to cast their votes in both polls. </p>
<p>Lithuania has a “<a href="http://www.semipresidentialism.com/?cat=5">semi-presidential</a>” system whereby the president is the head of state, while legislative power is vested in the prime minister, who at present is Algirdas Butkevičius, a member of the LSDP which is part of the ruling coalition in Lithuania’s parliament or “Seimas”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=268&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=268&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=268&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=336&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=336&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48902/original/kh8g3446-1400509981.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=336&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">EU factfile lithuania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/lithuania/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Competition between two presidential candidates may also influence voting in the European elections. The fight between Balčytis and Grybauskaitė could encourage increased polarisation between the left and the right – Lithuania’s governing coalition and the opposition. </p>
<p>Grybauskaitė presents herself as non-partisan, but she draws a great deal of her support from parties that make up the right-of-centre parliamentary opposition: the Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS) and Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats, (TS-LKD). She is usually portrayed in the media as a right-leaning politician. All LSDP’s partners in the governing coalition – Order and Justice, the Labour Party, Electoral Action of Poles – support Balčytis.</p>
<p>Lithuania has 11 seats in the European Parliament and the LSDP is expected to win the majority of them.</p>
<p>Since the country became a full member of the European Union (EU) in 2004, Lithuania has consistently emerged as one of the most positive members in terms of people’s trust in the EU and it’s institutions. There is no really Eurosceptic party and the issue has remained marginal in political discourse. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=283&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=283&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=283&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=356&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=356&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49143/original/8wm9ntfy-1400673001.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=356&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Future of the European Union: are you optimistic or pessimistic?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_first_en.pdf">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While trust the in EU has fallen Europe-wide, according to the more recent Eurobarometer survey last year, 52% of Lithuanian respondents expressed confidence in the EU, placing it equal third with Malta and Poland.</p>
<h2>Scepticism about the euro</h2>
<p>But while Lithuanians approve of the EU, some aspects of Europe are more popular than others. Only one in ten Lithuanians wants the euro, for example and as Lithuania approaches its planned date for joining the euro – January 1 next year – the debate over it is growing gradually more intense. </p>
<p>The Order and Justice party is now <a href="http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/47254/lithuanian-order-and-justice-party-proposes-referendum-on-euro-entry-201347254/">demanding a referendum on membership of the euro</a>, while Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania, part of the ruling coalition openly declares that introduction of euro would not be a good decision at the moment. The performance of these parties in the election for the European Parliament will be an indicator of how this issue plays in the minds of the electorate.</p>
<h2>…rather than Euroscepticism</h2>
<p>If there is Euroscepticism, it is more strongly pronounced among older voters and marginal parties. In the latter half of 2013, two small parties: the Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union (LVŽS) which has one seat in the Seinas, and the Nationalist union (TS) which doesn’t hold any seats, started collecting signatures in order to prompt a referendum that would prohibit selling Lithuanian land to citizens of foreign countries. </p>
<p>This would put Lithuania at odds with EU law governing land ownership and investment – and the campaign failed to attract support from the major parties. Despite raising the necessary 300,000 signatures, the campaign has not done much to boost the very marginal popularity of Lithuania’s very small Eurosceptic contingent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mažvydas Jastramskis receives funding from the esearch Council of Lithuania.</span></em></p>Lithuanians will vote in the EU Parliamentary elections on the same day as the country holds its second round run-off vote in the presidential election. In the first round, which was held on May 11, the…Mažvydas Jastramskis, Post-doctoral fellow, University of VilniusLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260042014-05-21T05:10:03Z2014-05-21T05:10:03ZEU election: high-stakes campaign in Bulgaria could make or break government<p>Intense political polarisation and protests took place in Bulgaria in 2013. In February of that year, the ruling party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), was forced to resign and new <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22498433">national elections were organised</a>. This allowed a coalition of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) to form a government.</p>
<p>And yet a second wave of political protests started and continued during the summer and into early autumn. The prime minister, Plamen Oresharski (an independent member endorsed by the BSP), was unable to quell unrest so former prime minister and the current leader of the BSP, Sergei Stanishev, stepped in with the promise that the future of the cabinet and the future of the National Parliament would depend on the people’s will as expressed in <a href="http://sofiaglobe.com/2014/05/08/european-elections-2014-bulgaria-any-change/">the results of the European Parliament elections</a>.</p>
<p>He pledged that if the ruling coalition parties receive fewer votes than opposition parties, the government would step aside and hold new elections later in the year. Suddenly, these European Parliamentary elections have been transformed into a national referendum on the government. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=365&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=365&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49017/original/ymfnf5y5-1400593028.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=365&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/bulgaria/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result the campaign has become a purely national campaign addressing specific national issues. And from being considered as “second-order” elections, the EU elections now have very high political stakes. This is not the first time this has happened. In 2009, the EU elections took place one month before regular national elections, so the campaign became a forerunner of the national election campaign, with the result taken as indicative of the national elections to follow.</p>
<p>In 2014 the fate of the government and the survival of the assembly are dependent on this week’s European Parliament election result, which has raised the stakes and focused the campaign on national issues. </p>
<h2>Big hitters and outside chances</h2>
<p>To understand the way this election is going to work in Bulgaria it is helpful to group participating parties in two main groups: parties members of an EP party group and parties without such an affiliation. </p>
<p>We could label them as “mainstream parties” and “outsiders”, respectively. To the first group belong the governing parties, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which is a member of the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the Movement For Rights and Freedoms (DPS) which is a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). </p>
<p>The main opposition party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) is a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) and Reformist Bloc, an alliance of a number of minority right-wing and centrist parties (RB) that currently hold no seats in the Bulgarian parliament has some MEPs aligned to EPP. </p>
<p>The outsiders are political parties at the margin of party space which, apart from the populist party <a href="http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/05/20/336772/gallup-bulgaria-without-censorship-third-political-force-at-eu-elections.html">Bulgaria Without Censorship</a> (BBC), do not stand much of a chance of securing a seat. </p>
<h2>What the polls are saying</h2>
<p>So far the opinion polls have been fairly stable: it looks as if the elections will be dominated by insiders: the BSP, GERB, DPS, RB and – recently indentified as a growing force – BBC. For the first time, nationalist parties are likely to be left without representation at Brussels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=510&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=510&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=510&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=641&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=641&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49018/original/hmb3j2ry-1400593082.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=641&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison with Media poll of 5 April 2014. Results presented here exclude undecided voters (31%).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/bulgaria/#.U3taPfldXsY">Graph via Metapolls</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is largely due to the fact that a variety of populist parties are vying for the nationalist vote. So, National Union Attack (ATAKA) which won two seats in 2009, may receive an insufficient number of votes to send an MEP to Brussels. </p>
<h2>Euroscepticism</h2>
<p>The real surprise of these elections is the manner in which <a href="http://www.euroviews.eu/2014/04/30/video-ataka-euroscepticism-and-the-bulgarian-youth/">Euroscepticism</a> is manifesting itself in the form of both “hard” and “soft” Euroscepticism. It’s important to note that this is political territory that was previously occupied by the marginal players. But no longer. Now a variety of mainstream actors, including some influential figures within the BSP, are expressing doubts and criticisms of the EU. </p>
<p>This is new. Only two or three years ago, Bulgaria was seen as one of the most enthusiastic members of the EU – and one of the reasons that nationalist parties such as Ataka could attract votes. But as the mainstream has developed its own softer version of Euroscepticism they have dragged support from the fringe, mainstreaming the issue and hence mainstreaming a section of the Eurosceptic vote in this election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dragomir Stoyanov is affiliated with Sofia Society of Political Studies.</span></em></p>Intense political polarisation and protests took place in Bulgaria in 2013. In February of that year, the ruling party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), was forced to resign and new…Dragomir Stoyanov, PhD candidate, Sofia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/265532014-05-20T14:24:09Z2014-05-20T14:24:09ZEU election: regionalism breeds strange alliances in Croatia<p>Croatia only joined the European Union in July last year, so this week will see Croatians elect MEPs for the second time in just over a year. Whether this could explain the current lack of interest in the EU elections is not clear.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.novilist.hr/Vijesti/Hrvatska/Vecina-Hrvata-ne-zna-da-su-u-svibnju-novi-euro-izbori">a poll conducted in January</a> only 42.4% voters knew there would be elections for the European parliament in May. </p>
<p>The first Croatian election for the EU parliament was held in April 2013 and the outcome was a clear victory for the centre-right coalition led by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) who emerged with 6 of 12 seats earmarked for Croatian MEPs. The HDZ is a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament and is currently the main opposition party nationally. </p>
<p>Although European elections are generally seen as second-order elections across all member states, the turn-out of 20.84% in Croatia was especially low, but the often-heard explanation that parties did not invest much time or money in getting the vote out for a one-year term simply does not hold water. Both the governing Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the HDZ consider the European Parliament election not only as a way to gauge their current support, but also as an opportunity to improve their standing on the national political scene.</p>
<h2>Strange bedfellows</h2>
<p>One of the peculiar outcomes of the 2013 election was the election of an extreme right-wing MEP from the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP-AS), Ruža Tomašić, in the HDZ coalition list. Tomašić is not necessarily a Eurosceptic but is a hardcore nationalist who argues that “Croatia is for Croats” while “everyone else is a guest”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=296&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=296&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=296&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=372&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=372&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49003/original/2p3wf7w3-1400582754.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=372&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tomašić promptly joined the right-leaning European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) as opposed to the EPP group that the rest of the HDZ MEPs joined, <a href="http://dalje.com/en-croatia/putting-tomasic-on-hdz-slate-was-mistake-says-doris-pack/498906">drawing criticism</a> from Joseph Daul, EPP’s leader in the European parliament. But HDZ president Tomislav Karamarko, who leans further to the right than most in the EPP, has added Tomašić to its coalition list in this election as well. </p>
<p>Another curiosity is the inclusion of a <a href="http://epthinktank.eu/2014/01/08/croats-in-bosnia-and-herzegovina/">diaspora representative</a> stemming from HDZ’s branch in Bosnia and Herzegovina to represent all the Croats still living there.</p>
<p>Further on the right is the Alliance for Croatia which is dominated by the Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB) whose leader, Branimir Glavaš, is currently serving an eight-year sentence for war crimes. opinion polls reflect their strong regional base, predicting they will win one seat in the EU election.</p>
<h2>Left standing</h2>
<p>On the left, the ruling Kukuriku (“Cock-a-doodle-doo”) coalition led by the SDP has been plagued by persistent scandals and an inability to improve Croatia’s sluggish economy. The coalition is poised to win four seats in the European Parliament: two of them by SDP members while the remaining two are likely to go to the regional Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS) and the more liberal-leaning Croatian People’s Party (HNS), both members of the ALDE/ADLE group in the European parliament.</p>
<p>One suprise package that should be flagged is Croatian Sustainable Development (ORaH) which is led by Mirela Holy, a keen ecologist and a LGBT rights promoter. According to a recent CRO-Demoskop survey she is Croatia’s <a href="http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/124009">second-favourite politician</a> (after the president Ivo Josipović).</p>
<p>For the HDZ, a victory in the European elections would be used to demand early parliamentary elections (which will otherwise be held in the late 2015) while a victory for the SDP would be hailed as a vote of confidence in the current government, giving it the impetus it needs to tackle rising unemployment and other economic issues. The various small parties and regional groups are jockeying for position and headlines ahead of next year’s elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dejan Stjepanovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Croatia only joined the European Union in July last year, so this week will see Croatians elect MEPs for the second time in just over a year. Whether this could explain the current lack of interest in…Dejan Stjepanovic, Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute for Advanced Studies in the Humanities, University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/258462014-05-20T05:14:17Z2014-05-20T05:14:17ZEU election: dinosaurs and decoy ducks in Estonia<p>In March, a new government won power in Estonia. The change of government was triggered by the decision of the prime minister, Andrus Ansip of the ruling Reform Party (RE) to step down so that he could replace Siim Kallas (also RE) as a European commissioner who would, in turn, replace him as prime minister. In turn, Kallas started negotiations with the centrist Social Democrats (SDE) to replace nationalist-conservative Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) in the ruling coalition after tensions had developed between the parties.</p>
<p>But Kallas was forced to withdraw following allegations connected with his term as the president of national bank in 1990s. Taavi Rõivas, a 34-year-old minister of social affairs, promptly finalised the negotiations and became Europe’s youngest prime minister.</p>
<h2>The joy of six</h2>
<p>Estonia’s six MEPs are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The four parliamentary parties are currently supported by around <a href="http://www.emor.ee/erakondade-toetus/">20-25% of voters</a>. The Social Democrats have a marginal lead over Reform that is recovering from various scandals. The support for the mildly authoritarian centre-left Centre Party (KE) and IRL is slightly lower, but all four are likely to win a seat. The two remaining mandates are up for grabs as parties face some significant competition from independent candidates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=298&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=298&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=298&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=375&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=375&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48904/original/kz7m9d77-1400510705.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=375&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/estonia/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2009, an independent candidate <a href="https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=epern-no-41-estonia-2009.pdf&amp;site=266">Indrek Tarand</a> managed to win more than a quarter of votes. In his campaign, Tarand rallied against “partocracy” and singled out the introduction of closed party lists in European elections as its starkest manifestation (all other elections in Estonia since independence had employed open lists). His success has encouraged many independent candidates this year, several of whom are well-known. </p>
<p>These include two politicians recently expelled from the Reform Party: Kristiina Ojuland, an incumbent MEP implicated by an electronic voting <a href="http://news.err.ee/v/politics/c925b69b-f152-49b5-967c-3a707cc44b65">scandal</a> and Silver Meikar, whose confessions triggered a major party funding <a href="http://news.err.ee/v/politics/14b1e95c-ce3b-475b-9a9d-9843de9dc176">scandal</a> in 2012. While Tarand stands a good chance of re-election, a success by any other independent candidate or extra-parliamentary party would be a surprise.</p>
<h2>Decoy ducks</h2>
<p>Curiously, the question whether successful candidates will take up their seats has possibly attracted more attention than European issues and party manifestos. Major Estonian parties have such an established tradition of fielding prominent candidates with no intention of actually taking up their seats as MEPs that a metaphor of “decoy ducks” has entered political parlance.</p>
<p>Edgar Savisaar, the infamously dominant leader of the Centre Party, has openly declared that he <a href="http://news.err.ee/v/politics/0c03fed1-ed81-4e4f-a004-8a27fd617f0d">will not step down</a> as the mayor of Tallinn when elected. Even though most of Centre Party’s leaders are ethnic Estonians, it is highly popular among Estonia’s Russian-speakers – many of whom are not Estonian citizens and can only vote in local elections. That explains Centre Party’s popularity in Tallinn that is ethnically more mixed than the country on average. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48915/original/5qdbkwnt-1400513906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marju Lauristin. former independence campaigner, is back in the political limelight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Marju_Lauristin_2013.IMG_4996_by_Ave_Maria_M%C3%B5istlik.JPG">Ave Maria Mõistlik</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The party is also seen as Russian-facing because of its long-standing (though not active) co-operation agreement with Putin’s United Russia and Savisaar’s links to Russian business leaders. In 2010, Vladimir Yakunin, the president of Russian Railways, supported one of his pet projects (a new Russian orthodox church) prompting the Estonian Security Police to consider Savisaar an <a href="http://news.err.ee/v/politics/470ffabc-3d38-4148-b777-80a6fd728e51">agent of influence</a> for Russia. </p>
<p>The most divisive of Estonian politicians by some margin, Savisaar’s recent comments on Ukraine have stirred further controversy. He has refrained from denouncing Russia and even talked about Ukraine’s “cudgel-wielders’ government”. </p>
<p>Other leading members of his party have voiced support for Ukraine, but avoided open confrontation with Savisaar. His comments may affect the Centre Party’s performance as his democratic and patriotic credentials have been called into question. Recently, a campaign <a href="http://g3.nh.ee/images/pix/900x585/584acb0d/anvar-samost-edgar-savisaar-vladimir-putin-68415747.jpg">poster</a> depicted Savisaar kissing Putin, modelled on the famous photo of <a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brezhnev_and_Honecker_kiss.JPG">Brezhnev kissing Honecker</a>.</p>
<p>Savisaar is the only leader of a major party in the running. Reform’s top candidate is Ansip who, before his recent resignation was the longest-serving prime minister in the EU. He is likely to become an MEP, but is thought likely to take up a post with the European Commission at some stage.</p>
<p>The party’s other candidates include the daughter of Siim Kallas and three cabinet ministers. The Social Democrats’ list is led by Marju Lauristin, party leader in early 1990s and a prominent sociology professor who has been away from front-line national politics for more than a decade. She is likely to join the European Parliament, but three of the party’s candidates have just become ministers in the national parliament and are less likely to take up seats.</p>
<p>IRL has proudly declared that there are no “decoy ducks” amongst their candidates. Their top candidates are Tunne Kelam, former party leader and MEP since 2004, and Ene Ergma, a veteran former speaker of the parliament. Hence, main party lists are dominated by political dinosaurs: Savisaar, Lauristin and Kelam were all key leaders of independence movements in the 1980s. Together with Ansip, they are likely to share most of the preference votes between them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allan Sikk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In March, a new government won power in Estonia. The change of government was triggered by the decision of the prime minister, Andrus Ansip of the ruling Reform Party (RE) to step down so that he could…Allan Sikk, Senior Lecturer School of Slavonic & East European Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260212014-05-19T13:48:16Z2014-05-19T13:48:16ZNewspapers’ EU election coverage misses the mark<p>The European Parliament elections are just a few days away. And yet, the overwhelming focus of election coverage in UK newspapers has not been about European issues and policy debates, but on Nigel Farage’s UKIP and the question of a UK referendum on EU membership.</p>
<p>Coverage has also, unsurprisingly perhaps, been very strongly linked to the UK’s next general election in 2015, meaning that so much of the communication surrounding the European elections has been presented in national terms, it’s difficult to tell the difference anymore.</p>
<p>There has been little reporting on what a cast vote actually means, in democratic terms. These elections are the first to take place under the new <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20140210BKG35568/html/THE-2014-EUROPEAN-ELECTIONS-THIS-TIME-IT%E2%80%99S-DIFFERENT">Lisbon Treaty rules</a>, and yet this new system, with its arguably enhanced transparency, is largely unknown to the British public.</p>
<p>Three weeks ago, an editorial in The Guardian lamented exactly this: the UK approach to the elections is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/21/european-elections-some-things-bigger-ukip">“missing the point”</a>. There is space for a bigger, broader debate about Europe, but this is not happening in UK newspapers.</p>
<p>An analysis of <a href="http://www.nrs.co.uk/downloads/feb-top-liners/newspapers_201312">six of the most-read papers</a> over the weekend of May 17-18 confirms, with a few exceptions, that the focus of the coverage is UKIP and what the EU election tells us about the outcome of the 2015 general election.</p>
<h2>The broadsheets</h2>
<p>The Guardian’s first mention of anything election-related that weekend came on page ten, where it featured an article on Yorkshire UKIP candidate Amjad Bashir and linked this to support for the party in the north versus the south of England. The opposite page had a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/17/ukip-xenophobic-not-racist-eric-pickles">shorter piece</a> on Nigel Farage’s interview on LBC Radio. Guardian Weekend also featured a photo essay on people who aren’t voting. </p>
<p>Saturday’s Telegraph coverage, in both a front-page <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10837581/Eric-Pickles-Ukip-is-not-racist.html">story</a> and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10837748/Eric-Pickles-Ukip-may-lure-Tories-but-the-tide-is-turning.html">an interview</a>, centred on Conservative communities secretary Eric Pickles and his claim that UKIP is “über-nationalist and xenophobic, but not racist”. Another short piece reported Farage’s claims that the ballots were confusing and may cost the party votes.</p>
<p>The Sunday Times featured on its front page a more general article about the status of the Labour Party. Then, as a part of its Election 2014 coverage, page 15 had three articles by political editor Tim Shipman. The <a href="http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1411945.ece">first</a> centred on Nigel Farage’s claim that the UK will lose its “first-world status” should it remain in the EU. The second was on Britain’s declining budget rebate from the EU and the <a href="http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1411942.ece">third</a> on George Osborne’s claim that voting for UKIP will damage the economy.</p>
<h2>The tabloids</h2>
<p>Perhaps most surprising in the Saturday Sun’s coverage was a strongly worded editorial on page eight which said that Farage’s comments related to Romanians versus Germans as neighbours “is racism, pure and simple”.</p>
<p>The Sunday Mirror’s focus was “exposing” UKIP. A short piece on page two said a Mirror poll predicted UKIP coming out on top on Thursday. The paper’s main coverage, on pages 10-11, predictably took a very critical position on the party and highlighted <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/truth-ukip-racist-jibes-anti-gay-3558058">racist and/or inaccurate statements</a> that have been made by UKIP candidates. To the Mirror’s credit, a shorter article on what the UK would look like under UKIP, based on the party’s policy positions, discussed some issues, such as employment, the NHS, and the environment (this was in a national context, however). </p>
<p>The same page also featured <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-labour-big-vision-3560891">a piece</a> by Ed Miliband explaining why people should support Labour. Finally, two of the paper’s editorials were election-related: one on how the current coalition and UKIP are tarnishing British public life, and the other, by John Prescott, commemorating former Labour leader John Smith and encouraging votes for the party.</p>
<p>Finally, the Mail on Sunday’s coverage was framed around the misgivings and poor poll results of the Labour party, with the Mail <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631506/The-numbers-say-Miliband-never-PM-STEPHEN-FISHER-latest-polls-showing-Tory-lead-comes-no-surprise.html">claiming Ed Miliband will never be prime minister</a>. A second <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631449/Farage-racism-row-grows-insists-Romanians-ARE-likely-commit-crime.html">report</a> on page 24 was on one of the weekend papers’ hot topics, Farage’s claims on Romanians versus Germans as neighbours. An <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2631581/What-need-know-Nigel-Farage-vote-Thursday-JAMES-OBRIEN-LBC-radio-presenter-Ukip-aide-tried-silence.html">opinion piece</a> by James O'Brien, written after he interviewed Farage, said that the leader had “let his mask slip”, and encouraged critical thinking on supporting the party.</p>
<h2>The verdict: can do better</h2>
<p>So, what does this tell us? The concept of European elections is a relatively new one. It demands a public platform to debate political and democratic issues and institutional legitimacy. Part of this debate should be played out in the press. </p>
<p>But the elections game is an entirely different one in Britain, overtaken by UKIP and the question of a referendum, and not a platform for critical discussion on important issues facing the continent in the 21st century.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Mattocks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The European Parliament elections are just a few days away. And yet, the overwhelming focus of election coverage in UK newspapers has not been about European issues and policy debates, but on Nigel Farage’s…Kate Mattocks, PhD candidate, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/265522014-05-19T05:07:59Z2014-05-19T05:07:59ZEU election: idea of Europe remains powerful in Spain<p>Very much like the rest of the European Union, two features define the European Parliament election in Spain: a lack of interest on the part of voters, and the supremacy of national issues over European ones. </p>
<p>A recent poll conducted by the national <a href="http://www.thelocal.es/20140513/spaniards-should-be-up-in-arms-against-eu">Centre for Sociological Research (CIS)</a> shows that more than three quarters of Spaniards express little or no interest at all in following the news related to the election, and only 17% know the exact date of the election (the survey was taken in mid April). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=282&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=282&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=282&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=355&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=355&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48734/original/3qwf5bxb-1400248677.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=355&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/spain/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In spite of efforts to “Europeanise” these elections, the same poll showed that for each Spaniard saying that EU issues will be more important that domestic ones when casting her vote, there are six that say that national concerns will be more important – a historic low for this type of elections in Spain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48712/original/c5f6nz9s-1400231551.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: CIS Pre-electoral surveys 2004, 2009 and 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this context, the European discourse of the two largest parties: the Popular Party (PP) and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) remains obscure. The PP campaign tries to capitalise on the supposed good news on the economic front – employment destruction seems to have come to an end (although unemployment remains at 26%). Currently holding power in Spain, the PP and tries to stress the importance of keeping to economic policy commitments within the EU, with a strong defence of Spanish national interests in Brussels. </p>
<p>These messages seem to be aimed not at garnering popular support for its policies, but rather to mobilise its partisan supporters in an attempt to limit the punishment it will receive given the unpopularity of its administration.</p>
<p>Despite the fact that bad economic conditions and widespread discontent are usually good news for an opposition, the PSOE is likely to suffer even larger losses in this election. The causes are multiple and mostly domestic, but European issues are also probably to blame. The PSOE leadership and campaign message is generally seen as unambiguously pro-integration, dspite the fact that its support has grown significantly more Eurosceptic during the economic crisis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48754/original/pnxjmv58-1400270271.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: CIS Preelectoral Surveys, 2009 and 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The PSOE’ campaign has tried to solve this contradiction by promoting the idea that the EU has been governed by “the right” during the crisis. But it is difficult to sell this message when the president of the Eurogroup (the meeting of finance ministers of Eurozone countries) is a Socialist, the vice-president of the Commission in charge of economic and monetary affairs is a Spanish socialist, and the socialist candidate for the European Commission presidency is the current president of the European Parliament. </p>
<p>As the Spanish president, Mariano Rajoy, bluntly put in an interview, “at the end of the day, we are always the same people”, in reference to the fact that conservatives and socialists are jointly in charge of economic policy-making in Europe, and that even Angela Merkel governs with the support of social-democrats.</p>
<p>On top of that, rumours in Spain of a future grand coalition make it even more difficult for Socialists to present themselves as a clear alternative, both in Europe and in Spain, to the people who are responsible for the dismal state of the economy.</p>
<h2>Two-party system under threat</h2>
<p>Given the unpopularity of PP and PSOE, the fact that EP elections are often considered of “second-order” and the specificities of the electoral system for European elections in Spain (proportional representation in a large national electoral district of 54 seats with no electoral threshold), one would expect that this election will threaten the stability of the two-party system (or “bipartidismo”, as it is called in Spain) that has dominated Spanish politics during the recent democratic era.</p>
<p>If one looks at the polls it appears that small parties are set to make significant gains. United Left (IU) and the liberal-reformist and centralist Union Progress and Democracy (UPyD) might triple their representation, peripheral nationalists will consolidate or grow (particularly the secessionist <a href="http://www.esquerra.cat/language/english">Esquerra</a> in Catalonia) and new parties might enter in the EP for the first time. </p>
<p>But in fact, most of the discontent towards PP and PSOE looks set to translate into voter apathy – turn-out is expected to be around 40%. About 60% of the votes cast look likely to end up with the two largest parties. So it looks as if reports of the demise of “bipartidismo” may be premature. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=436&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48709/original/3xwfg83t-1400231395.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=548&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: EP Results 2009 and CIS Pre-electoral survey 2014.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In spite of this turbulence in the party system, Spain remains immune to the emergence of openly Eurosceptic and populist parties. This reflects how powerful and attractive the idea of Europe still is among the Spanish public, even in a context of growing pessimism towards the EU’s policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jose Fernandez-Albertos has received competitive funding from the Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation to pursue scientific research.</span></em></p>Very much like the rest of the European Union, two features define the European Parliament election in Spain: a lack of interest on the part of voters, and the supremacy of national issues over European…José Fernández-Albertos, Permanent Research Fellow , Spanish National Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/258412014-05-19T05:07:39Z2014-05-19T05:07:39ZEU election: Germany – vote Merkel and carry on<p>No country takes European Parliament elections more seriously than does Germany. Many posters have adorned lampposts around the country since mid-April and discussions in the media centre round the parties and personalities that may (or may not) be gaining representation in Brussels in late-May. In previous campaigns these discussions generally centred round how best to achieve the rather nebulous concept of European unity. While that still resonates, the 2014 campaign undoubtedly has more nuances than normal.</p>
<p>The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led at the national level by Angela Merkel, is generally remaining true to the pro-EU messages that it has always espoused: “Vote CDU so that Europe can bring hope for all”, as one of the most ubiquitous of the party’s slogans states. Although Merkel is not playing a particularly prominent role in the campaign, her influence remains clear; safe hands, no surprises.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=341&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=341&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=341&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=429&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=429&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47438/original/6sb958vk-1398871656.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=429&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Europa.eu</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The CDU’s traditional message is, however, in stark contrast to the message being sent out by its sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The CSU claims to be a firm supporter of European integration, but it also articulates a plethora of criticisms of the way that the EU works. And these criticisms have enjoyed a degree of popular resonance. The institution at the centre of this is the European Commission (the CSU wants, for example, <a href="http://kielspratineurope.eu/?p=1145">to see its membership halved</a>), but it also fires out broadsides that have a decidedly populist touch. No more countries should be accepted in to the EU, radically fewer rules and regulations should stem from Brussels and, perhaps most controversially, the EU should tighten up immigration rules (particularly for Romanians and Bulgarians). </p>
<p>There are probably two main reasons for this rather more sceptical tone; one of them political and the other institutional. The political one comes in the form of the <a href="http://europe.demsoc.org/2014/04/08/alternative-for-germany-afd/">Alternative for Germany</a> (AfD). The AfD was formed in 2013 with the solitary aim of forcing Germany out of the Euro currency area. The AfD has been careful to claim that it is not anti-European, and comparisons with Britain’s UKIP are misleading. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=490&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=490&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=490&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=616&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=616&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/47441/original/vwck6qcg-1398872455.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=616&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/germany-euroelections-2014/#.U2ESwPldXsY">metapolls.net</a></span>
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<p>The institutional reason for the shift towards euro-criticism comes in the fact that the Federal Constitutional Court (BvG) has ruled that for the first time ever in either a nation-wide or EP election, <a href="http://www.bverfg.de/en/press/bvg11-070en.html">the 5% barrier won’t be in force</a>. The BvG decided that this barrier was an unnecessary hindrance to small parties and a stable democracy like Germany should not be throttling them in this way. For the AfD (and others such as the Free Democrats and the libertarian “Pirates”), this was something of a gift from heaven. The AfD may well have polled 5% anyway, but the threat of just missing out again has now been totally removed. The AfD can breathe easy, as it need only get around 0.9 per cent to ensure parliamentary representation. Germany subsequently will have a party that fits, if still rather uneasily, the Eurosceptic bill in Brussels post-May 2014.</p>
<p>In terms of the CDU/CSU’s main rival, the Social Democrats, the 2014 EP election comes at a strange time. The Grand Coalition that both groupings have only recently signed up to ensures that they are reluctant to really attack each other. And besides, the Social Democrats don’t have a narrative for Europe that is much different to that of the Christian Democrats. That Martin Schulz is the candidate for European Commission President on behalf of the European Party of Socialists (PES) is seen as being all well and good, but it is unlikely to see the SPD bounce back with a vengeance from its 2013 election defeat. The SPD is subsequently adopting a damage-limitation strategy with a view to simply getting through the campaign unscathed and ultimately usurping the CDU/CSU as Germany’s largest political grouping in 2017.</p>
<p>In short, the EP election campaign in Germany is seeing more Euro-critical talk than ever before, and that will ensure that the AfD will indeed be represented in Brussels come the end of May. The large parties are trying to tap in to the pro-European consensus that still underpins German politics, but they are doing so at a time when enthusiasm for the EU project is not as great as it once was. In truth, both the CDU/CSU and the SPD are probably hoping that election day comes and goes quickly, without too much damage being done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>No country takes European Parliament elections more seriously than does Germany. Many posters have adorned lampposts around the country since mid-April and discussions in the media centre round the parties…Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/258922014-05-15T16:11:13Z2014-05-15T16:11:13ZEU election: Portuguese tired of being 'Troiked' by both Lisbon and Brussels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48634/original/jnqsthg8-1400163213.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=496&amp;fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">h</span> </figcaption></figure><p>In a rather symbolic coincidence, the forthcoming European elections will take place one week after the Portuguese exit from the bail-out programme. A blend of austerity, recession and hopelessness defined Portugal over the last three years, while the so-called “Troika” – the representatives of European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund – visited the country every three months to assess the state of public finances.</p>
<p>Today, rumour has it that <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4f5641c-8750-11e3-9c5c-00144feab7de.html#axzz31W6ATmQA">the economy is recovering</a>, but few people had the chance to grasp it. Unemployment still tops 15% and youth unemployment is 35%. In 2012 (the most recent figures available), more than 120,000 people fled the country. What kind of feedback can Europe expect from Lisbon?</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=306&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=306&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=306&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=384&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=384&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48284/original/bvr85cqd-1399906572.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=384&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/portugal/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
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<p>The Portuguese people have traditionally had a very positive attitude towards European institutions, which they have seen as offering a fundamental underpinning to their young democracy. After decades of isolation during the Salazar dictatorship, Europe was seen as a symbol of prosperity and social democracy. </p>
<p>That Europe has now become a symbol of uncertainty, doesn’t mean it has become the main focus of criticism.</p>
<p>If confidence in Europe is waning in Portugal, the Portuguese <a href="http://www.portugaldailyview.com/whats-new/eu-portuguese-among-european-citizens-who-least-trust-justice">trust their own institutions and politicians</a> even less. When the crisis started, they even thought that foreign intervention would finally force their government to adopt some desperately needed reforms. Three years on they have realised that austerity was a disastrous response to a wrong diagnosis – but they still blame their national government more than Europe.</p>
<p>In this respect, they have a good point, which was served on a silver plate by the ruling right-of-centre coalition of Social Democrats (PSD/PPD) and Christian Democrats (CDS/PP). When the the prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, took office in 2011 he said he would not stick to the Troika’s recommendations, but rather go beyond and apply more austerity than necessary.</p>
<p>Acting as the diligent pupil proved to be a wrongheaded strategy. The government had to revise its economic forecasts several times, make more public expenditure cuts than originally thought and eventually turn some temporary cuts into permanent ones. Many think this was still not enough and that Portugal will need an additional loan to stabilise its economy.</p>
<p>This is basically the only item on the political agenda. Despite many other issues: agriculture, fisheries, regionalisation funds, everything else is subordinated to the dispute over the necessity of a transitional rescue programme.</p>
<h2>Clean exit an illusion</h2>
<p>Passos Coelho claims Portugal will achieve a “clean exit”, avoiding to ask for an additional loan. He has to say that to preserve fragile confidence in the Portuguese public debt – but his claim seems unrealistic. With a shortage of currency reserves and a all-too-feeble rate of growth, it is unlikely that interest rates will be stable enough to avoid asking for more money.</p>
<p>For the Socialist Party (PS) leadership, facing this topic is a tough task. The incumbent leader, António José Seguro took office when the party was already on the opposition benches, but the PS is the same party that called for external aid, so this is still a very controversial topic for them. They stick to the narrative of the lack of skill of the current government in negotiating fair exit conditions, and keep a low profile on what they would do. As Patrícia Martins Marcos, a research assistant in Public Policy at the Oregon State University, puts it: they “are trying to walk through in between the raindrops.”</p>
<p>European elections traditionally favour extremist parties and – given its recent history – one might expect this to be be even more so in Portugal. But there simply isn’t the same level of political extremism in Portugal as in many other European countries. Racist or xenophobe political discourses never took root in Portugal, which is often said to be “a country of mild customs”.</p>
<h2>Proxy mid-terms</h2>
<p>These will prove to be a kind of mid-term elections for Portugal. Not surprisingly, the <a href="http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls#country">most recent polls</a> see the ruling coalition plunging to 33.95%, a major setback compared to the national elections of 2011 when they polled slightly more than 50%. What is interesting is that the main beneficiaries of this downturn will be the Socialists, who are likely to attract nearly 40% of the vote, rather than by any “extreme” parties, whose growth is set to be minimal.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=439&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=439&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=439&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=552&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=552&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48285/original/rp638r87-1399906620.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=552&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Taken by Eurosondagem for Expresso and SIC between April 14 and 22. Comparisons are with Eurosondagem poll of Mar 21.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/portugal-euroelections-2014/#.U3Dg5_ldXsY">Metapolls.net</a></span>
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<p>The CDU, a coalition formed by the Communist Party and the Green Party, is polling at 10.5% compared with 7.9% in 2011 while the so-called Leftist Block (BE), a more recent grouping of different leftist parties, is still crawling below 6%. Neither took part in the negotiations with the Troika and both want Portugal to ditch the euro – but, other than that, they don’t have a clear political agenda about Europe.</p>
<p>What is happening instead is that the Portuguese civil society, often labelled as passive, is gradually mobilising – but against Lisbon rather than Brussels. It is very critical about Europe and the single currency, but they grasp that the problem is not just a national one – and, in any case, their trust in national politicians is so low that they wouldn’t know whom to give repatriated powers back to.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antonio Peciccia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a rather symbolic coincidence, the forthcoming European elections will take place one week after the Portuguese exit from the bail-out programme. A blend of austerity, recession and hopelessness defined…Antonio Peciccia, Researcher in International History, University of SalentoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/263652014-05-14T16:31:52Z2014-05-14T16:31:52ZEU election: Romania's looming presidential ballot raises the stakes<p>Romanians take European elections very seriously. These elections affect domestic politics as they do in the UK and other Western member states, but they don’t exist in a separate bubble. In Romania, EU elections have more of <a href="http://www.hkstrategies.com/blogs/public-affairs/2014-european-parliament-elections-romania-will-time-be-different">a “blowback” on domestic politics</a>. </p>
<p>So while Britain’s UKIP could easily come out on top in the European Parliament (EP) election but leave its leader Nigel Farage without any prospect of becoming prime minister in the UK, this dichotomy would be unthinkable in Romania.</p>
<p>In fact, many politicians maintain that winning a plurality of votes in the EP election is a prerequisite to winning the Romanian presidency in November.</p>
<h2>A breakdown of the political landscape</h2>
<p>Romania has 32 seats in the EP, a sizeable bloc which has <a href="http://www.martin-schulz.eu/en/">garnered the attention</a> of the main political forces, actors, and party groups in Brussels. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://europedecides.eu/candidates/election-lists/ro/">biggest political party</a> in Romania is the Social Democrat Party (PSD), which is in the Alliance coalition with the National Union of the Progress of Romania (UNPR) and the Conservative Party (PC). The coalition, which has 11 MEPs, sits in Brussels as part of the Progressive Alliance of Social Democrats.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=291&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48497/original/7dq8vqzf-1400064352.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=366&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/romania/index_en.htm">Europa.eu</a></span>
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<p>Ranged against them the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) with ten MEPs, which sits in the European People’s Party (EPP) in Brussels. The PSD is the party of Romanian prime minister Victor Ponta, who has predicted a big win for the party with a 35% share in the vote.</p>
<p>The third most important bloc is the National Liberal Party (PNL) which has five MEPs and is part of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). </p>
<p>Two other parties, the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) and the ultra-nationalist Greater Romania Party (PRM) have three MEPs each.</p>
<h2>European issues</h2>
<p>Apart from the range of domestic economic issues under discussion, the most prominent “European” issues of discussion in Romania are the <a href="http://www.dw.de/germany-keeps-romanians-bulgarians-out-of-schengen/a-16652922">exclusion of the country</a> from the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13194723">Schengen agreement</a>, which broke down internal borders between particular countries in Europe, and the discrimination against Romanians’ free movement and right to work throughout Europe.</p>
<p>Euroscepticism is not really a factor, even with the presence of the ultra-nationalist PRM party and its founder, Vadim Tudor, whose reputation (deserved or not) has been likened to Jean-Marie Le Pen in France. The PRM’s MEPs were once part of the Eurosceptic ITS group, but the party caused its collapse in 2007 when they walked out in protest against Italian MEP and ITS member Alessandra Mussolini, who made insulting remarks about Romanians being expelled from Italy. </p>
<p>The PRM’s two remaining MEPs are currently steering clear of the incumbent Eurosceptic party-group, Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD), to which UKIP belongs.</p>
<h2>Schisms and independents</h2>
<p>Another characteristic of European politics in Romania is the continuing fragmentation of the right-wing parties, who quarrel as much with each other as they do with the left. </p>
<p>Apart from the sizeable Alliance coalition, the election campaign has been characterised by a large number of small parties and individuals participating in the election on both the left and right of the political spectrum. There are nine smaller parties and groups campaigning and eight independent candidates with no party affiliation.</p>
<p>Along with prime minister Ponta, other big names either standing as MEPs or taking a prominent part in the campaign include Romanian president Traian Băsescu. Băsescu has been <a href="http://roostergnn.com/2014/05/04/traian-basescu-playing-games-with-ep-president-martin-schulz/123510/">openly critical</a> of Martin Schultz, president of the European Parliament, who visited Romania to launch the Alliance campaign and whom he accused of being weak on Russia over Ukraine. Instead Băsescu is backing EPP candidate Jean-Claude Juncker for the job.</p>
<p>Ponta, meanwhile, is predicting that – in addition to taking the majority of seats in the European election – that the Alliance will win the presidential election in November. High stakes indeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Parau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Romanians take European elections very seriously. These elections affect domestic politics as they do in the UK and other Western member states, but they don’t exist in a separate bubble. In Romania, EU…Cristina Parau, Department Lecturer in European Politics and Societies, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/266622014-05-14T11:42:36Z2014-05-14T11:42:36ZDistrust of the political system, not the far right, is real threat to our European future<p>It is widely predicted that far-right parties will be the big winners of the 2014 European elections. <a href="http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls#country">Some polls</a> have even suggested that the French Front National, the Dutch Party for Freedom, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Danish People’s Party and the UK Independence Party could be the winning parties in their respective countries. </p>
<p>This is hardly surprising as the rise of these populist, nativist movements has taken place in extremely favourable circumstances. Secondary elections have always proven beneficial for parties beyond the mainstream. The Eurosceptic side, whether opportunistic or ideological, is able to run an “easy” negative campaign, attacking institutions which the public doesn’t properly understand and in which it is not very interested. </p>
<p>The economic situation is also favourable for far-right parties as mainstream parties on both left and right have been forced to embrace painful austerity measures. While there are signs of recovery, many countries are still suffering from the aftermath of the economic crisis and mid- to long-term forecasts are no cause for optimism. </p>
<p>In late 2013, in contrast to early signs of economic recovery touted by governments, 68% of respondents in the latest <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_en.htm">Eurobarometer survey</a> said the current situation in their country was bad and 50% felt that worse was still to come. In such a context, an exclusionary nationalistic alternative would logically appeal to some of those anxious about their present situation.</p>
<p>In their appeal to those most anxious within our societies, these parties have been helped by constant and disproportionate media coverage. While the media is rarely favourable to the cause of populist nativist parties, the excessive coverage reinforces their legitimacy. This has been particularly striking recently in France and the UK, where Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage have become common features of prime-time television and newspaper front pages. </p>
<p>In France, <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-and-fn-won-only-7-of-votes-this-is-not-an-earthquake-24810">the coverage of the local elections</a> commonly referred to the “shock” caused by the Front National’s performance. This was despite some relatively ordinary results compared to previous elections, which demonstrated the inability of the FN to grow, even in a favourable context. The coverage of the elections also rarely took into account that the FN was unable to put forward more candidates and win more seats despite them having been carefully targeted, demonstrating further the limits of the party’s reach. Similarly, Nigel Farage and UKIP have attracted <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/just-how-much-media-coverage-does-ukip-get">“historically unprecedented levels of coverage for a minor party”</a> despite the fact they have no MPs in Westminster. </p>
<p>Populist nativist parties have also been helped to grow larger by the normalisation of much of their discourse – what would have been considered 20 years ago to be racist and unacceptable has now <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09639489.2013.872093">become political “common sense”</a>. Governments and oppositions have taken to shamelessly blaming immigration and/or Islam for all ills in our societies. Even though only 7% to 12% of <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_publ_en.pdf">Eurobarometer</a> respondents placed immigration among the two main issues facing their countries between 2010 and 2013, the topic has been – again disproportionately – prominent in both the media and elite discourse. </p>
<p>All things considered, the far right (in all its diversity) should benefit from extremely favourable circumstances in the upcoming elections.</p>
<h2>Flash in the pan …</h2>
<p>Yet, despite much of the media’s frenzy, populist nativist parties have so far failed to make strong and consistent gains in recent years and it is unlikely that the upcoming European elections will see a change in this. If we are to trust opinion <a href="http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls">polls</a>, while these parties will fare well in terms of their percentage of the number of votes cast, it is much less certain that they will succeed in bringing vast swaths of registered voters to their side. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=489&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=489&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=489&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=614&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=614&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48498/original/xrzfwks6-1400064906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=614&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FN’s share of the vote since 2004, March 22 (prediction for EU 2014)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pollwatch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, it was ironic to see <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/marine-le-pen-en-campagne-contre-l-europe-et-l-abstention-11-05-2014-3832019.php">Marine Le Pen complain about the threat of abstention among the electorate</a>, clearly demonstrating that she is not the most obvious alternative to the discontented and she suffers from a similar lack of trust to that of her mainstream opponents.</p>
<p>Indeed, in France and the UK far right parties are unlikely to attract more than 10% of registered voters, something much less impressive than the ‘electoral earthquakes’ the media is predicting, and will most likely report on their front pages. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=476&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=476&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=476&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=598&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=598&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48407/original/phkqwr6d-1400005280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=598&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UKIP'share of the vote since 2004, March 25.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pollwatch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Besides, were they to win the elections, it is unlikely that these parties could form a coherent force within the European parliament as they base their politics on very different platforms: the Front National is very different from UKIP, UKIP is not the Dutch Freedom Party, and so on. (Another irony is in their <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;ved=0CDMQFjAB&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Feprints.uwe.ac.uk%2F12545%2F2%2FRR_in_EP_PEPS.pdf&amp;ei=OF5yU6q-HIeM7AaqxICoCQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4T7akqZY0VicKF6K8oh04H246NA&amp;sig2=OawTX2gRIDTjox5ifsIdlQ&amp;bvm=bv.66699033,d.ZGU&amp;cad=rja">denunciation</a> of each other as the extremist force they claim they are not.)</p>
<h2>… or deeper democratic malaise?</h2>
<p>But while it’s unlikely that the far right will gain direct or real power in the short term, the disproportionate focus on their performance will reinforce them, for some people, as a “natural” alternative to the loathed elite. This will be at the expense of other parties and movements which are also growing, but are given little space in the public discourse. </p>
<p>As a reaction, the political elite will convince themselves they must borrow more ideas and rhetoric from the far right. This will lead to the widening of the gap between a self-righteous political elite, blaming opposition to their politics and policies on an irrational mass, and the people for whom the political offer does not match their hopes and fears. </p>
<p>The lopsided coverage will therefore obscure the more dramatic crisis of democracy which has been brewing since the 1980s in Europe. This neglect of the record levels of abstention and distrust in parliamentary politics – whether mainstream or extreme – will be at the expense of the democratic ideals of Europe. </p>
<p>As anger and disillusionment in the parliamentary system reach new heights, the focus on the far right seems more like a decoy, than the search for a solution to the real threat to our European future – distrust of the overall system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aurelien Mondon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is widely predicted that far-right parties will be the big winners of the 2014 European elections. Some polls have even suggested that the French Front National, the Dutch Party for Freedom, the Austrian…Aurelien Mondon, Lecturer in French Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/259292014-05-14T05:16:33Z2014-05-14T05:16:33ZEU election: Slovenia facing uncertainty after PM’s departure<p>Most contenders for the European elections in Slovenia waited until the very last moment to submit their candidate lists to the electoral commission. <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/16-lists-in-slovenia-vying-for-european-parliament-seats">There will be 16 entrant lists this time</a>, compared to 12 in 2004 and 13 in 2009. </p>
<p>All seven parliamentary parties are putting forward candidates, including the three biggest ones – centre-left <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_Slovenia">Positive Slovenia</a>, which leads the ruling coalition at the time of writing but has no MEPs; the right-leaning <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovenian_Democratic_Party">Slovenian Democratic Party</a>, currently has three MEPs, and the centre-left <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democrats_%28Slovenia%29">Social Democrats</a> – two MEPs. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democracy_of_Slovenia">Liberal Democracy of Slovenia</a> will support a list of candidates under the leadership of its existing MEP, Jelko Kacin. </p>
<p>All of the current Slovenian MEPs, apart from two from the Slovenian Democratic Party, Zofija Mazej Kukovič and Romana Jordan, are running for re-election. The other parties with existing MEPs are <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Slovenia">New Slovenia</a> (Christian democrats) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zares">Zares-Social Liberals</a>, which have one each.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=286&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=286&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=286&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=359&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=359&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=359&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Europa.eu.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among the numerous other entrants, a civil society organisation submitted a list under the leadership of former president of the Slovenian Court of Audit, the country’s highest court for supervising state public spending. It is believed to be entering under the name <a href="http://www.evropa.gov.si/en/content/latest-news/news/news/soltes-only-familiar-face-on-i-believe-slate/4ff23e9e0f3c61277ce8da1ec5f56d9d/">List of Igor Šoltes</a>. </p>
<p>There will also be a candidate list submitted by a citizens’ action group called <a href="http://sanjska.si/dream-job-citizens-action.pdf">Dream Job</a>. It is overseeing campaigns by eight citizens who were drawn out of a hat after expressing an interest in getting what they saw as a “dream job” in the European parliament. The group’s purpose was to show that drawing lots in this way can give better results than party selection processes. </p>
<h2>Not much sign of the women</h2>
<p>Only two candidate lists will be led by women – Zares-Social Liberals and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Left_%28Slovenia%29">United Left</a>. Meanwhile only one serving minister will stand for election, from the liberal <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civic_List_%28Slovenia%29">Civic List</a> party. </p>
<p>Officially the electoral campaign in Slovenia started a month before the elections, a campaign activities start beforehand. This year has been different because two other domestic events have overshadowed proceedings. First, <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/archive-referendum-comedy-continues">a lot of time has been devoted</a> to a referendum on the amendments to the law on archives and archival material. The referendum was initiated by the Slovenian Democratic Party, and in February/March a battle ignited over the date that it would be held. </p>
<p>While the Slovenian Democrats demanded it be held simultaneously with the European elections, coalition parties strongly opposed the idea. Most recently the <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/archives-referendum-to-be-held-on-8-june">plan is</a> to hold the referendum on June 8. </p>
<h2>Government turmoil</h2>
<p>A more dramatic distraction was a leadership battle within the centre-left Positive Slovenia party, <a href="http://www.dw.de/slovenia-prime-minister-alenka-bratusek-resigns/a-17612637">which only days ago unseated</a> the party leader and Slovenian prime minister, Alenka Bratušek. Her opponent was Zoran Janković, who has been pushing for a return to the Positive Slovenia throne after temporarily stepping down a year ago over findings by the anti-corruption commission that suggested he was involved in possible corrupt activity. </p>
<p>Things came to a head at the party congress when Janković won an internal leadership election on April 26. Bratušek resigned on May 5 after only 13 months at the helm. Even before the result was announced, Positive Slovenia’s coalition partners the Social Democrats, Civic List and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_of_Pensioners_of_Slovenia">Democratic Party of Retired Persons of Slovenia</a> had said they would dissolve the coalition if Bratušek was defeated, so the country appears to have entered a period of upheaval. </p>
<p>She is being tipped to leave Positive Slovenia to start a new party and launch a fresh push for power. If this now leads to a general election, the question now is whether Slovenia will see a repeat of 2004. In that year the European elections were held several months before a general election and the debate became all about national topics rather than European ones. </p>
<h2>Poll with it</h2>
<p>So far the signs are that Positive Slovenia is heading for a very bad result. According to <a href="http://www.balkaneu.com/opinion-poll-bratusek-vote-confidence/">public opinion polls conducted by daily newspaper Delo</a> on April 7 and 8, the party standings for the European elections were: the Slovenian Democratic Party would win with 20.8%, followed by the Slovenian National Party with 12.1%, and the joint list of New Slovenia and Slovenian People’s Party with 11.5%. </p>
<p>Positive Slovenia, whose leading European candidate is prominent economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo%C5%BEe_Mencinger">Jože Mencinger</a>, who describes himself as a eurosceptic, polled just 4.6%. The biggest decline in comparision with the previous poll conducted by the same newspaper in mid-March recorded the Social Democrats’ support shrinking from 10.6% to 4.4%. It seems the main reason for this is entrance of List of Igor Šoltes into the game, receiving 8.7% support. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Telephone poll of 700 people taken April 22-24.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/slovenia/#.U2zPHvldXsY">Ninamedia via Metapolls.net</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.sta.si/en/vest.php?s=a&amp;t=0&amp;id=2003205">Another poll was conducted</a> by pollster Ninamedia and weekly newspaper Mladina a couple of weeks later. It predicted the winner would be the Slovenian Democratic Party with 12% support, followed by joint list of New Slovenia and the Slovenian People’s Party with 10.3%. It put Positive Slovenia in a distant fourth place behind List of Igor Šoltes. </p>
<p>Despite this uncertainty, voter turnout is not predicted to be high. The polls say that approximately 30% of voters will definitely vote, compared to a 28% turnout in both 2004 and 2009.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alenka Krasovec receives funding from the Research Agency of the Republic of Slovenia</span></em></p>Most contenders for the European elections in Slovenia waited until the very last moment to submit their candidate lists to the electoral commission. There will be 16 entrant lists this time, compared…Alenka Krasovec, Associate Professor, Chair of Policy Analysis and Public Administration, University of LjubljanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.