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*36C3 preroll music*
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Herald: Now we come to Bernhard
Stoevesandt. "Science for future?". Your
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stage - your talk. Here we go.
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*Applause*
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Bernhad Stoevesandt: Thank you very much.
OK. OK. This is not just my talk. This
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talk has a history. I have a coauthor,
Martin Dörenkämper, who is a colleague of
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mine who could not come here, but - so, I
will give this talk by myself, but we
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worked together over the year on this talk
because this talk has a history. And it's
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a bit of the history of Scientists for
Future, which is an association of
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scientists that evolved this year,
basically with the movement of those
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students and pupils of Fridays for Future.
And there were questions, you know, that
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they took to the street and said, hey, we
want a future. We want that things change.
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And they demanded for politics to change.
And this did not directly happen, but it
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was questioned, so some - well -
professional politicians said, well, they
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should leave it to the professionals. And
that's the point where actually a lot of
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scientists and a lot of scientists I know,
all where really mad at this because
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they've been doing science and research
for so many years. I mean, I don't know if
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you saw the presentations before, how much
effort is being put into this, into this
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research to make better and better, better
models. And what I will show you, this
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presentation is about the results of the
outcome of this and what this means and
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still nothing changes. So they write
papers, they write reports and, well,
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nothing happens. And so the only thing we
could say was basically, hey, they are
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right. Things need to change. And that's
why we got together and formed this
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association. So there's a charta on this,
which says basically what we do is we go
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out and we try to inform people on the
research, on the state of the art of the
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research and how things are currently. And
that's why I'm here. So that's exactly
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what I'm doing here. So we go out to
wherever and you can come to us and ask
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for presentations, for discussions to get
informed on this topic, on what this
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climate change issue actually means. And
this is the disclaimer now, I can tell you
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this is not a good mood talk, okay? So,
yeah. Because the topic is very serious.
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So it's a bit different than I usually do
it, in the end it will look a little bit
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better than in the beginning, but
nevertheless. So where are we currently?
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So this is the current graph. This is all
not research by myself. This is mainly
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from IPCC reports, and this is from the
report from last year on the 1.5 degree
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report, which was made - basically done,
or, put together because in the Paris
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agreement in 2015, it was said, well, we,
the world, or, the governments of the
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world, want to keep the climate change -
the temperature change - to well below 2
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degrees, if possible, to 1.5 degrees, and
the question was, hey, is this actually
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possible? Can we make that? What do we
need to do to do this? And so there has
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been a lot of questions about this and a
lot of research. A huge number of
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publications came out on this topic: "Hey,
what does it mean to have a 1.5 degrees
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warmer earth?" "What does it mean to have
a 2 degrees warmer earth?" and "Is this
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actually possible to limit climate change
to these temperatures?" And this is the
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current state. I really love this graph
because it contains a lot of different
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things. So what we are talking about. So
we have a pre-industrial period that we
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use as a reference. So that's the period
from 1850 to 1900 here. This is the
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reference period where we say, OK, this
was pre-industrial temperature and
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everything afterwards, the changes from
that are all referring to this. So 1.5
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degrees or so would be the difference from
this period. And then, what climate does,
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it's not always constant. So every year,
sometimes it's a bit warmer and sometimes
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a bit colder. So what you need to do is
you need to average. This is quite
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important, because, for example, there is
this year of - where is it? here - 1998,
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there was a very warm year. And
afterwards, for a long period, there
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weren't so many warm years. And then there
were some people saying: "Oh, yeah, look,
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the temperature does not change anymore,
so everything's fine now". And this, of
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course, isn't true, because you have to
look at average periods. So the red line,
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this is the so-called floating average. So
you always average with the years and this
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gives us about the current temperature
change. So this would be like a typical
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climate period with like 20 years. You
usually look at 20 years. But the problem
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we have currently is, that the change was
so drastic, that looking for 20 years,
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then you would always have to go far back
to periods when well, there was a big
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difference to today. So, the last changes
in this report were taken from this 2006
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to 2015 period. And the extrapolation from
this was basically, that in 2017 we
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probably reached a 1 degree increase in
temperature on a global scale. That's not
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always the same, and in different areas it
might be warmer and in different it's
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colder, but that's the global increase.
So. So this is where we are currently. So
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we have an increase from 280 parts per
million in CO2 to about 410 ppm. This is
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changing. Its not constant, it's a bit
going up and down but it's about 410
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in 2019. We have a strong increase in
temperature globally, but the biggest
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increase is actually in the winter. It's
in the Arctic. And there's a current
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antrophogenic CO2 surplus of about 40
gigatons per year. So 40 gigatons - what's
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that? That was actually current, this is
already gone because we are now a bit
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higher than that. But this was the average
period from 2011 to 2017. OK. Now I go
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directly into this IPCC report from last
year. That's 2018. In chapter 2, there's
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this table. I love this table. This table
contains a lot of climate science because
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it goes into how much actually can we
further emit to reach which temperature
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change. So this would be here the 1.5
degrees Celsius, this would be the 2
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degrees Celsius. And then you have
probabilities: how likely you can avoid
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this, or is it going to come? So if you
want to avoid it with a two sigma, that is
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like a 67% probability to go over 1.5
degrees, we have 420 gigatons to emit
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further additionally into the atmosphere.
420. As you remember, it's 40 gigatons per
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year. And this was I think from last year.
So this refers to basically 2017. So it's
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already two years gone since then. And it
has not decreased, but increased actually.
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And then there is a lot of difference, you
know, if you go for a 50 percent chance,
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you can you can say, ok, it's a bit more
we can emit. And if he goes, well, we just
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want to have a one third chance, then we
actually would have double the amount we
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could emit. For 2 degrees Celsius. This is
far more, so it's more than 1000 gigatons
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of CO2 equivalents to emit. Now, there
are, of course, a lot of uncertainties,
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all kinds of uncertainties that go with
that. And one is, for example, the so-
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called Earth System Feedback. The earth
itself responds to this emission and also
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emits CO2 and also methane. And this has
an also a long term impact. And then there
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are further uncertainties. And these are I
mean, this has been also part in the
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previous talks that, of course, climate
models do have uncertainties.
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Nevertheless, if we take this into account
and say, ok, we want to avoid 1.5 degrees
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Celsius increase in temperature with a 2/3
probability. That they call "likely" in
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this report. So it's likely that we are
not exceeding 1.5 degrees. We have 420
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gigatons surplus CO2 to emit into the
atmosphere in total. 100 gigatons will be
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more or less gobbled up by the earth
response. This was in the report. Current
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research shows that this is likely a bit
too conservative. So it's probably more,
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but, well. OK. So our emission is about 40
gigatons, so the planned CO2 emissions by
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coal power plants that are running, was at
that period 200 gigatons CO2. So they are
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built. They are running. 200 gigatons by
that. And then we have 100 to 150 further
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gigatons for our planned coal power plants
and those under construction. As we count
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this together, we have already exceeded
the 420 gigatons CO2. And this is, of
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course, one reason why these coal power
plants have to be shut down. But they're,
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of course, not the only source. They are
only one source of CO2 emissions we have
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in the atmosphere. And to make this clear,
what this means, this is what I go into
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now. What does this mean? This difference
from 1.5 degree to 2 degree, and that's
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been a lot of research on that. OK? Now,
the first one is, for example, on the
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Arctic. I mean, there's been a lot of
talks about ice bears and so on. But of
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course, this is not the only thing to care
about. It is quite crucial that there is
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ice there also because the ice, we heard
this before in the previous talks, that
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the ice reflects the sun and the less
reflection is there, the more warmth is
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being taken up by the earth again. So we
have like a feedback system there. Also,
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of course, because of all the... It's not
just the ice bear. There's like a whole
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biosphere there. And this biosphere has to
somehow survive. Now, the likeliness of an
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ice free Arctic is this graph here of
comparing 1.5 degrees - this is this one,
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or these two studies, these are two
studies here, one with the dotted line and
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another one with the full line - and 2
degrees. And this is how likely it is in a
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certain period of time that this happens.
And so you can see, if we consider again
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that it's likely, it's about 45 years it
takes for a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase
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that we have an ice free Arctic. So this
is actually possible with this increase,
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but it's like once every 45 years. If we
go for a 2 degree increase, this one is
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every 10, or, even with the other study,
it's more like once every five years that
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this is happening and this is quite
frequent. And this, of course, causes
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quite some impact on everything that lives
there. Now, this is ice and Arctic.
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There's not so many people living in the
Arctic. So there's a lot of further
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studies that have been done. And this, for
example, for Africa I will only ...
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because of limited time. I can do this
talk for many hours, actually. I will only
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go onto this example here. Extreme heat
with record temperatures over close to 50
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degrees and actually even increasing that.
That has been there in 2009, 2010 in the
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months from December to February in
Africa. These are temperatures where
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people cannot be outside anymore at these
temperatures. It's just too hot. And then
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it's showing these curves and these are
probability density functions. So these
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curves show how often, like, each of these
balconies, I don't know, boxes here are
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showing: How often does this happen? And
so here we have "current", the current
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status, that is the temperature from 2006
to 2015. That's what they call current. So
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there is already this increase in
temperature under these conditions. This
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happens every well, maybe twice every 100
years. If we go for 1.5 degrees increase,
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that's the blue line we can see: This is
going to happen every more or less third
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year. If we go for 2 degrees, this is
going to happen even more often. So this
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is for people living there, it's getting
hard to live there. It's just the
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temperature, only that. If we go for, for
example, for Australia as an example, that
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we have the same, it's always these
curves, here are extreme warm
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temperatures. Well, that's very easy. But
in Australia, what's also important there,
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it's the temperature of the water, because
of the corals that live there. And hot
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water leads to coral bleaching. So
basically, the corals die. And this all,
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of course, as we've seen, the temperature
is not every year the same. But there was
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this hot summer and an extreme coral
bleaching here. Temperature situation here
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in the summer, in 2012, 2013. And how
often does this happen? And we can already
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see here: This would be the natural. So
this would be the pre-industrial curve
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here, where this very warm temperatures
hardly ever happen. While we can see here
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already: This would be every third year
currently, it would be every second year
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in a 1.5 degrees scenario and probably two
of three years in a 2 degrees scenario.
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And this means, well, what this means I
would go into later. This is an example
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for Europe. well, how often things happen.
I don't know if you do, but I always
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remember that one, because I well, I was a
lot outside during that period. There was
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a very warm summer we had in 2003. And a
lot of people died of that because of the
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heat. I remember being in Cologne at the
time and laying outside at 40 degrees and
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I was ill and so I had 40 degrees. So
outside 40 degrees was very warm. And so
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naturally, this can happen. It could
happen like once every hundred years.
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Currently we have like a situation, well,
this would be like every 4th year. And
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this increases then to more than 59% of
all the years at 2 degrees Celsius. So
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we're gonna get hot summers. This is the
prediction of this study here. Well, what
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does this mean? Well, now I go back to the
IPCC reports and the IPCC reports are very
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diplomatic always. And so they have
"reasons for concern". And we are all very
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concerned. This sounds very nice, but of
course, there's some background to this.
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So they have. And in the summary of this
IPCC report from 2018 are there five
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reasons for concern. That's one: unique
and threatened systems like corals, or
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extreme weather events. And you can see
that does make quite a difference from
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now. And going to warmer temperatures, up
here we have the 2 degrees. So you can see
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between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees: That
does make quite a difference. Distribution
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of impacts. Basically, this means that
those, who suffer most, have contributed
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less. And that's, of course, bad because
those who contributed most, well, don't
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suffer as much. And then they won't
change. And that's a problem. That's why
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they're concerned on this one. Global
aggregate impacts is basically money
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impact. So how much does this cost in the
end to to cope with the outcome of this?
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And well, it costs billions of dollars in
the end to have a difference between 1.5
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and 2 degrees. Every year, just to cope
with the impacts. And then we have large
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scale singular events that could be
something like de-icing of Greenland or
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something like that. Well, when that's
gone, it's just a singular event because
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it's gone. This is very abstract. So they
get a bit closer to that. So warm water
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corals is basically they are having
already a problem. Well, I will show this
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later. Well, they expect about 90 percent
will die off at 1.5 degrees. Well, they
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will die out at 2 degrees. Most likely.
Certain. And this is of course, this is
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a... Well, it's important for nourishment
and for people who live from the sea, from
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whatever they fished out of the sea,
because corals that's like the childhood
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bed of a lot of fish. So we do get quite
an impact in the end on fishery. This is
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why this is so red. Mangroves also get an
impact on that, there is about the same
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story. So a lot of small fish grow up
there. Well, the Arctic region is getting
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increasing problems with the ice. Well,
these are all kind. I will go into this
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later. Coastal flooding will increase from
1.5 to 2 degrees. This is, well, flooding
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and rivers and so on. Well, and we'll get
some more heat related morbidity. Now,
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there's been a new report this year on
land use. And this has been even more into
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this. Now, different scale. Please watch
that. So the scale here, it's going up to
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five degrees. And if you look for that,
yeah, so it's a bit different. So the
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lower ones, 1.5 and 2 degrees are in
there. But problems they see is a dryland
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scarcity and water scarcity in drylands.
So that's desertification, a lot
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of that. Soil erosion, which is related to
that, vegetation loss is also related to
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that. Yeah, I will come to this later. The
wildfire damage, we can see that already
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today. I mean, in the news every time. Now
it's Australia and Chile. But before it
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was was more California and so on. So this
will go on. This is no coincidence that
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this is happening. We have permafrost
degradation. We have a tropical crop yield
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decline. Crop yield is of course... That
hurts because well, this leads, of course,
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in the end to food instabilities. And we
can see, it does make quite a difference
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already between 1.5 and 2 degrees. But of
course, it can get worse. And they... Also
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they are more specific on that, what they
mean with this. For example, in wildfire
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damage, they expect an increase in fire
weather season currently, over 50%
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increase in the Mediterranean area if it
gets above 2 degrees and well, if we go to
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4 or 5 degrees, well, they expect, well,
hundreds of million at least, or over 100
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million people additionally exposed. In
terms of food supply instabilities: Well,
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what we already see is, well, we have like
spikes in the food price. This is not so
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important for us usually. But of course,
for people in the world that don't have
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much money and we still have almost it's
not quite 1 billion people in the world,
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that live off less than 2$ a day. For such
people, this is, of course, quite
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important. If we go closer to 2 degrees,
they do expect periodic food shocks across
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regions. So basically that. There will be
situations where there will be no food
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available anymore. If we go up to four or
five degrees, this would lead to sustained
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food supply distribution problems on a
global scale. So this depends on of what
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kind of scenario we are calculating. I
will go into this later. One additional
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thing is also to think off on that, we are
not only talking about the temperature.
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Also, the water of the oceans take up the
CO2, they take up a lot of the CO2, that we
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blow into the air. And this leads to an
acidification. And so the pH value of the
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oceans, they decrease and this has an
impact on a lot of animals that build up
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calcium carbonate, so shells basically. So
all kinds of bi-valves, all kinds of like
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cancers and all that, they depend on
building up this calcium carbonate. And if
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they're not able to do this anymore, of
course, they don't grow anymore. And they
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are pretty much in the beginning of this
food supply, a food chain and the oceans.
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Now, I was reading this 2018 report and
somewhere there on page 223, I found them
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this year, where they basically say, ok, we
do have this impact and there is this
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aragonite saturation, which is well,
basically that's the point, where this
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build up for specific animals is not
possible anymore, at this saturation
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point, because the chemical reaction does
not work anymore. And this depends on the
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temperature, this depends on the pressure.
And the higher the pressure is, the
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earlier this point is reached. Also, the
colder the temperature is. And so this is
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what you can see on the right hand side.
They investigated this mainly from the
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polar regions on. And so that they... at
this point, where this point will reach the
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surface of the ocean from 2030 onwards, so
that they're all these animals on the
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surface of the ocean are not building in
the polar regions, will have problems to
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build up, actually, their shells in. This
has two different impacts, of course, one
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impact, they don't grow anymore. This has
a big issue on the food chain in the
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oceans. The second impact is actually that
these... This was a one off the carbon
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sinks. They took CO2 and with calcium,
they build up these shells and they die
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off at some point and they sink to the
ground. And well the CO2 is gone. Well, if
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this is not happening anymore, of course,
this type of carbon sink does not work
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anymore. Okay. Now, I've talked about...
These are further, I will go skip through
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this quickly. These are all kinds of
things that happen. So on this 1.5 degree
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report, they compared for a lot of
regions, what will happen. So for 1.5
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degree warming or less, of 1.5 to 2 degrees
and 2 to 3 degrees. And there's all kinds
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of things. This is the big table in this
report in chapter three. Read these
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reports. Please read these reports.
They're good! And they're actually
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scientifically good. I mean, this in terms
of if you do it. If you do science, it's
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really really good. Because they have so
many so much literature and so many cross
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references and how they do it to be very
sure to say, OK, this is what we can say
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with this certainty. This is very, very
good science. I think at least. OK. So I
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will not go into all of this. But it has
to all kinds of regions severe impacts
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like south east, for South East Asia, for
example, they have, you know, this risk of
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increased flooding and they have increased
precipitation events and, yes. And, well,
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I think the most significant of this is
the significant risk of crop yield
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reductions, which is avoided, if we stay
below 1.5 degrees. If we are not staying
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below 1.5 degrees, they estimate 1/3
decline in per capita per crop production
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per year, one third less food. That's not
good! And if we go even higher, well, this
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is getting worse. For small islands, well,
there's actually the small islands are
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well-known, of course, you know, there the
sea level is rising, so they have a
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problem. And actually the main problem
they have is not that just the water is
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going over the island, but that the salty
water is rising and is intruding the fresh
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water reserves they have. So they get a
problem with fresh water. And well, this
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is already a problem for them for 1.5
degrees, for two degrees, it's like a very
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severe problem. And that's why they are
pushing pushing so much for the 1.5
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degrees change maximum. In the
Mediterranean, this is very close to where
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we are currently. So they expect a
reduction of run-off water, so this is
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rivers, of about 9 percent, it's very
likely. Well there's range given, most of
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the time they have this. So there is
already a risk of water deficits at 1.5
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degrees increase in temperature. If we
increase further, we reach about... at up
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to 2 degrees, we have about 17% less water
in the rivers. This is, of course, not
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good. I mean, I mean, especially I mean,
okay, in Germany, for example, there's a
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lot of food coming from Spain. And well,
they do already have a problem with their
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crops, with water for their crops. And
this is getting worse. West Africa and
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Sahel. Well, there is a prediction. Well,
there's a prediction of, well, less
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suitable land for maize production by 1.5
degrees already by 40% less land. 40%.
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That's a lot. It's not the region where
people already have a huge surplus in food
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everyday. So there is an increase in risk
for undernutrition already. For 1.5
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degrees in. If we increase, well, this just
getting absurd in a way, it says higher
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risk undernutrition, of course, because
it's going to get worse. Apart from this,
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that it's too hot to go outside anyways.
Well, for southern Africa, it's similar.
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It's not as drastic. So there is already
the high risk for undernutrition in
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communities dependent on dryland
especially. So savanna areas which are
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rather dry. And this is getting worse
again. Well, in the tropics, also, there
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is a risk to tropical crop yields. We
already heard that on the other side. On
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the other side, it's also there, these
extreme heat waves they're going to face.
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So this is like this was a table and there
was a lot of, well, details of what they
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expect from 1.5 to 2 degrees. Now what
scientists, scientists are a bit strange
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sometimes because they are also then doing
their science and they look at different
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things. And one thing they are actually
now worried about, and this is, actually
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it is worrisome, very worrisome, is that
actually, well, climate change has been
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always there, because that's been like a
cycle and this the so-called interglacial
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cycle the earth has been going through.
This has to do with the position to the
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sun and a lot of feedback systems that
kick in. If you cool the earth, you have
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more ice build up, then you have more sun
being reflected again. You have less
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energy that stays on the surface of the
earth and then it gets colder and colder
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and colder up to a certain point where
this changes again and goes back. And this
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has been going on for hundreds of years.
And the point is, now we've left the
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cycle. And this is the part that's shown
up here, that basically we are now on a
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completely different trajectory. And
that's the trajectory that is we're
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heating this up and the Earth is
responding. And it's also heating itself
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up. And so we are on the path and it's not
quite clear. So they built this. They show
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this, this graph here, there is actually
the possibility that the earth will go on
308
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this path to heat itself up without us
even. And this is called tipping points.
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So there are several things that happen
there. That is, for example, the melting
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or thawing of the permafrost. There is
methane hydrates in the ocean storage that
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might be triggered to evolve. There will
be a reduction of CO2 intake in the
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oceans. Currently, a lot of CO2 is taken
into the oceans, but this will get less
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and less. the more saturation comes in
there. We have a die-off of rainforests.
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So. Well, last summer we've seen they have
a lot of rainforest burning in the
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Amazons. But this will also happen by the
increase of temperature without human
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impact. And in this paper here by Steffen
and some others, they said they estimate
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about a rainforest reduction of up to 40%
by an increase of of up to 1.5 degrees
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anyways. So we gonna lose rainforest, a
lot of rainforest already like that. We
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have a die-off in the boreal forest. This
was this summer in Siberia. Well, they
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just don't die off. They get burned. And
there are other reasons why they die. And
321
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so there's a lot of CO2 going to be
emitted from forests that are where carbon
322
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starts currently into the atmosphere. We
have a reduction of ice and snow. So
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there's less reflection of the sun into
the atmosphere again. And we have a
324
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reduction of ice warming, so we have an
increase in sea level. And this whole
325
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thing, this is like a communicating
system. And one thing triggered, will
326
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trigger something else. This is sometimes
goes by circulations, also by ocean
327
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circulation and so on. So one thing can
trigger the next thing and this might
328
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:56,190
trigger the next thing and this will go
on. And if this happens, at a certain
329
00:35:56,190 --> 00:36:03,500
time, at a certain intensity, then we will
not have as a human beings with the
330
00:36:03,500 --> 00:36:10,320
current technology and technology we have,
we will not be able to stop that. And
331
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that's what they are worried about, so
these climate scientists, that we should
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not get these tipping points to go too
strong. They are already...This is
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already... These are processes that can be
already seen, but... Well, currently they
334
00:36:30,390 --> 00:36:37,200
are on a level where it's, well, it's bad.
There was actually 4 weeks ago this paper
335
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:43,280
published in Nature Climate Change, where
they said, well, we might be wrong with
336
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:48,960
our estimation here with this 100
gigatons, because these tipping points are
337
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:54,490
worse than we thought. So we are actually
further there more on the upper limits of
338
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the bounds where we thought it would be.
Yes. So these are very worrisome
339
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:16,010
situations. Now, this should trigger us to
do something about it, and that's actually
340
00:37:16,010 --> 00:37:23,760
the point. So things need to be done. But
up to now, well, things have not been
341
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:30,980
done. But this is like they see it, the
climate, greenhouse gas emissions curves
342
00:37:30,980 --> 00:37:39,320
from 1970 to 2010. And we can see that not
only that the curve has been increasing
343
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more or less the whole period, but also
the increase has increased from 2000 on.
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And the main increase here is by CO2. The
other gas is here methane. There is a...
345
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nitrogen gases up here. And well there are
CO2 from well, agriculture, forestry and
346
00:38:07,690 --> 00:38:12,890
land use, this is here. They are more or
less constant. Sometimes there are spikes
347
00:38:12,890 --> 00:38:19,280
like this. Most likely this is like
rainforest burning. The only year in the
348
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recent years where there has been a
decrease also in the CO2 emissions was in
349
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the economic crisis in 2008. Well, there
actually was a decrease by 4 percent.
350
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Yeah. Now, nevertheless, the scientists
went on and said: OK, let's calculate, how
351
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can we manage to get to 1.5 degrees and
there are different scenarios. Some say,
352
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:53,030
OK, let's go to get to 1.5 degrees. Some
say, OK, maybe we need to get to a higher
353
00:38:53,030 --> 00:38:58,480
temperature and later on change that again
to get to 1.5 degrees. So there are all
354
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kinds of scenarios that you can calculate.
Now, if we say, we use this CDR, this is
355
00:39:08,660 --> 00:39:15,270
carbon dioxide removal. We don't have
that. And we say, we use the exponential
356
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curve each year. We do reduce this the
same percentage of our emissions and we
357
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want to get to 1.5 degrees. And this was
the curve from 2018. So we should have
358
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started this year to reduce our CO2
emission by 18% each year globally, 18%,
359
00:39:38,460 --> 00:39:47,910
if we want to reach 1.5 degrees. If we
want to be, we reach 2 degrees, it's still
360
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5 percent each year. 5 percent. If we do
this for Germany, by this, and I think
361
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this is the most important figure. It's
not as important like politicians always
362
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say, are yeah, by this year, we want to
reduce our emissions by 50 percent or
363
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something like that. But this does not
tell you what happens but 2030, what
364
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happens until 2030? Right? So it's very
important to keep in mind that it's likely
365
00:40:18,370 --> 00:40:24,200
we have a budget and this is actually from
a paper, it's global carbon budgets. They
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say they publish each year, how much
budget do we have left to to emit? And so
367
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if we take this budget and say, OK, this
is our budget. How are we gonna spend to
368
00:40:37,300 --> 00:40:42,760
spend going to spend our carbon budget?
And this is something that we should ask
369
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all the politicians. What do you think is
your budget? Why do you think this is your
370
00:40:47,110 --> 00:40:54,750
budget? And there's been actually an
article by by climate scientists Stefan
371
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Ramsdorf in the Spiegel. Where he said,
OK, let's estimate we have more than seven
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point about seven point three gigatons CO2
overall budget to Germany. And we could
373
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say if we want to reach one point five
degrees, this would mean we continue our
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share of emissions, which would be in
Germany, which is like double the average
375
00:41:14,910 --> 00:41:20,491
of the rest of the world. And we'd say,
OK, we have the right to blow out in the
376
00:41:20,491 --> 00:41:26,270
air twice as much as the average person in
the world. Then we still would have 1.5
377
00:41:26,270 --> 00:41:31,510
gigatons CO2 in Germany to
emit. And how are we gonna do that? That's
378
00:41:31,510 --> 00:41:36,850
the question. Are we do we have this in
mind? Of course we can calculate this down
379
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to each person in Germany. So we end up
with about 40 tons per person. So each of
380
00:41:44,730 --> 00:41:51,030
us can also think of this. I have 40 now,
90 tons here. Sorry, 90 tons. That is to
381
00:41:51,030 --> 00:42:01,319
emit. How am I gonna spend this until the
end of my life? Now, if we go back to this
382
00:42:01,319 --> 00:42:08,530
report, then we have different scenarios.
And as you can see, there are different
383
00:42:08,530 --> 00:42:15,200
ways of doing that. And these are
different economic scenarios. So and you
384
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:19,070
can see already, that most of these
scenarios do have negative emissions at
385
00:42:19,070 --> 00:42:25,980
some points. Actually, all of them have.
Some of them include carbon capture and
386
00:42:25,980 --> 00:42:32,310
storage here shown as BECCS. And
depending on what kind of economic
387
00:42:32,310 --> 00:42:40,619
scenario you go for, this is more or less.
And here it's like up to about 20 gigatons
388
00:42:40,619 --> 00:42:48,190
per year to be stored in the ground. The
green part here, agriculture, forestry and
389
00:42:48,190 --> 00:42:54,109
land use and other land use. This also, of
course, you can reduce CO2 by planting
390
00:42:54,109 --> 00:43:00,200
trees. This is actually a very efficient
way of doing that. But of course, the land
391
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:07,839
land area is limited. And this is also
true for other things. And of course, the
392
00:43:07,839 --> 00:43:13,140
land area we can use is decreasing due to
climate change. It could always should
393
00:43:13,140 --> 00:43:22,580
always keep this in mind. Now. The base of
all these scenarios, they put this again
394
00:43:22,580 --> 00:43:27,930
into a table and and puts and I put some
pictures to that. So they say: If we want
395
00:43:27,930 --> 00:43:32,450
to reach to 1.5 degrees, what
we have to do, we need a rapid and
396
00:43:32,450 --> 00:43:40,200
profound near-term decarbonisation of our
energy supply. So basically, we have to be
397
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:46,380
very, very quick and change our energy
supply. This has to be. That's the first
398
00:43:46,380 --> 00:43:51,590
part. The second part, we need greater
mitigation efforts and the demand side. So
399
00:43:51,590 --> 00:44:02,680
we have to use less and get smaller with
things. Third part is well we do have to
400
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:13,730
do this within the next 10 years, so we
cannot wait. This is very, very urgent.
401
00:44:13,730 --> 00:44:18,540
Well, this is actually a table that looks
like this is a bit, sorry for that. So the
402
00:44:18,540 --> 00:44:22,849
main thing is that the additional
reductions come from CO2 emissions because
403
00:44:22,849 --> 00:44:28,579
the other greenhouse gas house gases are
already included in the two degrees
404
00:44:28,579 --> 00:44:37,400
scenarios. We need to invest differently,
so investment patterns have to change
405
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:44,410
strongly. What we also, they are the best
options actually for one point five degree
406
00:44:44,410 --> 00:44:52,660
scenarios are the ones that go with the
sustainable development, because if people
407
00:44:52,660 --> 00:44:59,270
don't have food to eat, they don't have
the chance to take care of the climate
408
00:44:59,270 --> 00:45:07,200
anymore, because first they are trying to
survive. So we do have to also care about
409
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:16,230
how people can live on this planet. This
helps protecting the climate. Well, then
410
00:45:16,230 --> 00:45:22,300
they say, OK, we probably have to think of
climate, the carbon dioxide removal
411
00:45:22,300 --> 00:45:26,129
somehow at the mit summit of the century.
What's the myth of the centuries? So this
412
00:45:26,129 --> 00:45:31,050
has to be implemented now. And what we
also have to do is, we have to switch from
413
00:45:31,050 --> 00:45:38,240
fossil fuels to electricity and the end
user sector. Now CDR, carbon dioxide
414
00:45:38,240 --> 00:45:44,310
dioxide removal, I will say about that.
This is, of course, agriculture, forestry
415
00:45:44,310 --> 00:45:50,750
and land use. That's very easy planting
trees. Then there is BECK. So you use by
416
00:45:50,750 --> 00:45:58,670
basically biomass to produce some some gas
and then you capture the CO2 from burning
417
00:45:58,670 --> 00:46:03,020
the gas and press this into ground and
carbon capture and storage. Or what you can
418
00:46:03,020 --> 00:46:12,050
also do is use direct air capture as where
you use it. These are like these machines.
419
00:46:12,050 --> 00:46:19,430
So they take CO2 from the air and then you
have to store it. And you can see it's such
420
00:46:19,430 --> 00:46:27,109
a machine here. This was like a model at
the time. So these are these have been
421
00:46:27,109 --> 00:46:33,599
already existing models. This. So
basically this can be take 1000 tons of
422
00:46:33,599 --> 00:46:40,990
CO2 per year. So if we want to go for
gigatons, then we would have to build
423
00:46:40,990 --> 00:46:48,510
millions of these in the end. Problem
with that, it's a bit and discuss
424
00:46:48,510 --> 00:46:58,890
also in this report. So. So basically. So
we have an energy usage of that by
425
00:46:58,890 --> 00:47:06,120
12.9 gigajoules per tonns CO2. So
basically, if we want to use put down 15
426
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:12,570
tons of 15 gigatonnes of CO2 per year by
this, which was in one of the scenarios, we
427
00:47:12,570 --> 00:47:19,440
would need about 1/4 of the global
energy supply only for atmospheric waste
428
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:25,590
management. It's called like this. And the
funny thing, this was like a professor. We
429
00:47:25,590 --> 00:47:29,680
had them in our university here in
Oldenburg and he he gave this
430
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:34,380
presentation. He said, yeah, this sounds
so crazy, but the climate change will hurt
431
00:47:34,380 --> 00:47:44,960
you so much. This will be done. Yeah. And
BECCs, that's a different way of doing
432
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:51,040
that with a bio gas. So the thing is, if
we want to have that at large scale, it
433
00:47:51,040 --> 00:48:00,000
requires huge amounts of land use to
produce this amount of biogas. And the
434
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:05,610
other drawback is, of course, that you do
have to take care of your storage systems
435
00:48:05,610 --> 00:48:12,360
to avoid the gas to come out because.
Well, CO2 is hard. Is has a higher density
436
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:19,470
than than oxygen. And it goes so, it stays
on the ground, if there is no wind. And if
437
00:48:19,470 --> 00:48:26,140
people live there, you don't have anything
to breathe anymore. Now, there are, of
438
00:48:26,140 --> 00:48:30,800
course, different sectors. This for the
EU, for example, where where the
439
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:37,440
greenhouse gases come from. So the main
parts are, of course, agriculture. There
440
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:45,270
is transport and the energy industry and
this. But there's also other industries.
441
00:48:45,270 --> 00:48:49,160
And it's important to keep in mind that
this is not equal of all different
442
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:55,880
countries. But it is also distributed to a
dependent strongly on on the income of the
443
00:48:55,880 --> 00:49:00,590
people in the countries. So the high so-
called high income countries here, they
444
00:49:00,590 --> 00:49:06,910
have the highest share in the CO2
emissions by the MID. So so-called
445
00:49:06,910 --> 00:49:15,230
emerging countries, they're almost at the
same level now. While low income
446
00:49:15,230 --> 00:49:20,270
countries. They mainly have a CO2
emissions here from agricultural land land
447
00:49:20,270 --> 00:49:26,340
use. So the question is, can we make it to
one point five degrees? That's a good
448
00:49:26,340 --> 00:49:33,050
question. So there have been a lot of
studies like. Like for Germany and the EU.
449
00:49:33,050 --> 00:49:41,160
Either on like energy infrastructure,
for example, or the whole system. There
450
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:49,890
was one study from this year. They looked
for 95 percent CO2 reduction by 2050.
451
00:49:49,890 --> 00:49:55,650
There was one study currently just read
you released for the complete EU and
452
00:49:55,650 --> 00:50:05,500
greenhouse gas neutral EU by 2050. And so
obviously, technically there is this
453
00:50:05,500 --> 00:50:12,240
assumption that this is possible. One main
thing of that is, that we have to go far
454
00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:17,000
more efficient. And one thing and that is
use electricity, because electricity is
455
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:22,710
very efficient in many things. So
currently the prime currently prime energy
456
00:50:22,710 --> 00:50:27,320
consumption in Germany is about two
thousand 3200 terawatt hours
457
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:31,640
in total. And the assumption
for 2050 where they have this
458
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:43,619
100 percent or 95 percent reduction would
be 1300 terawatt hours or by the other
459
00:50:43,619 --> 00:50:49,620
study was even less than that. That
depends a bit on the mixture they use. The
460
00:50:49,620 --> 00:50:54,760
reason for that is, for example, that the
efficiency, for example, of battery driven
461
00:50:54,760 --> 00:51:01,360
cars is much higher than the one, those of
combustion driven or other methods. So it
462
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:09,050
really depends on which technology you put
into use on how good you get. On the EU
463
00:51:09,050 --> 00:51:16,640
level, that looks a bit like this. So
there demand and supply today. And this
464
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:23,440
would be, so the reduction is not quite as
large, but that would be as they still
465
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:30,460
assume that we can reach this type of
reduction if we want to. Nevertheless,
466
00:51:30,460 --> 00:51:40,060
they are not assuming 100 percent CO2
free. But they calculate with negative
467
00:51:40,060 --> 00:51:47,630
emissions by agriculture and forestry. So
this is actually in these calculations and
468
00:51:47,630 --> 00:51:52,901
I really like the one by Robinius and so
on. That's the lower one because they
469
00:51:52,901 --> 00:51:59,260
actually calculated completely with
storage systems, with electricity grids
470
00:51:59,260 --> 00:52:02,960
and all that and how much needs to be
invested into this. This is a very
471
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:08,290
detailed study. Very, very good one. So
this actually technically possible and
472
00:52:08,290 --> 00:52:12,780
they even calculated this. What happens in
the so-called "Dunkelflaute". That's the
473
00:52:12,780 --> 00:52:18,690
German word for there is no wind and no
sun in the winter for a period of time.
474
00:52:18,690 --> 00:52:24,420
And what happens? And this can actually.
And that's what all they assume is that we
475
00:52:24,420 --> 00:52:29,589
do have a lot of storage for gas and we
can use these curr, current strategic
476
00:52:29,589 --> 00:52:36,440
storage, as for gas in the future to store
power to to gas, gas or gas that's won by
477
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:44,490
electricity there as a backup. So
basically, technically, this is possible.
478
00:52:44,490 --> 00:52:52,520
So to conclude, so the climate system is
already at a critical stage. The prospect
479
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:58,650
for a one point five degree warmer
earth are already very bitter. And
480
00:52:58,650 --> 00:53:03,530
while the IPCC reports and all the
reports, they are they are they. All of
481
00:53:03,530 --> 00:53:08,910
them go for it. If you would not exceed 2
degrees because we have this thing of the
482
00:53:08,910 --> 00:53:16,710
tipping points. And several reasons
we already have this two degrees. Yeah,
483
00:53:16,710 --> 00:53:22,840
this carbon dioxide removal is presented.
Basically, this is hard to avoid. But
484
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:31,339
there are these critical things concerning
carbon capture and storage. And whatever
485
00:53:31,339 --> 00:53:37,010
we need to do is we have to act fast, and
that's the main thing. This has to be done
486
00:53:37,010 --> 00:53:49,550
very quickly. And I must say I'm very
sorry. But our government's. Well, yes...
487
00:53:49,550 --> 00:53:58,990
*applause*
488
00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:04,230
So it is not a technical
issue. It is a political one. Yes.
489
00:54:04,230 --> 00:54:05,200
Thank you.
490
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,450
*applause*
491
00:54:08,450 --> 00:54:14,010
Herald: Bernhard, I thank you very much.
We have eight minutes for questions. So we
492
00:54:14,010 --> 00:54:17,310
have a couple of microhones here and the
whole. Please line up over there. We have
493
00:54:17,310 --> 00:54:22,490
those eight minutes. I'm sure there will
be questions. The signal angel is
494
00:54:22,490 --> 00:54:29,450
signaling over there, that we have a
question from the Internet.
495
00:54:29,450 --> 00:54:34,339
Question: Do you see nuclear power plants
as a temporary solution to slow the
496
00:54:34,339 --> 00:54:40,410
emission of CO2 and we had quite some
discussion in the Internet. There was
497
00:54:40,410 --> 00:54:45,599
number one answered. You need more than 10
years to build new nuclear power plants.
498
00:54:45,599 --> 00:54:50,790
And the response was, well, you could we
get the shutdown once back on the power
499
00:54:50,790 --> 00:54:54,050
line. So is that the realistic scenario,
in your view?
500
00:54:54,050 --> 00:54:59,150
Bernhard: Well, there is actually this
this is a current discussion going on. And
501
00:54:59,150 --> 00:55:05,230
the issue with that is, it's not that easy
to us to get old power plants back into
502
00:55:05,230 --> 00:55:11,010
running. Because, well, they have a certain
type of lifetime. And if you want to put
503
00:55:11,010 --> 00:55:15,499
them back on into the into the system,
then you somehow would have to exceed the
504
00:55:15,499 --> 00:55:21,690
lifetime. And that are some, of course,
some security issues. And if you want to
505
00:55:21,690 --> 00:55:27,260
avoid them, then you have to put a lot of
money and effort into getting them to run.
506
00:55:27,260 --> 00:55:32,740
And you need also a lot of time to do
that. And so this the question is, would
507
00:55:32,740 --> 00:55:40,560
this be worth it? And I would say probably
they are faster methods to do it. You
508
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:46,410
could do it. There are, of course, the
risk and I mean after Fukushima and
509
00:55:46,410 --> 00:55:54,420
Chernobyl. Basically, we we've all seen
what the risks are. So and I would say
510
00:55:54,420 --> 00:56:00,030
it's probably not the best and fastest way
to do it. There are other ways they could
511
00:56:00,030 --> 00:56:02,900
be worth doing it.
Herald: OK. Then we're going to hop over
512
00:56:02,900 --> 00:56:06,839
to microphone number one.
Mic 1: First, I want to thank you for
513
00:56:06,839 --> 00:56:11,590
your talk. It was very informative. And
yeah, my question is as follows. There was
514
00:56:11,590 --> 00:56:17,380
a talk at the university where I study in
Darmstadt one and a half years ago from a
515
00:56:17,380 --> 00:56:23,620
person who compared the IPCC predictions
with what really happened with the real
516
00:56:23,620 --> 00:56:28,510
temperature increase and the damage which
causes the climate change. And what she
517
00:56:28,510 --> 00:56:35,170
found out that the IPCC always, nearly
always underestimated the effect of the
518
00:56:35,170 --> 00:56:41,329
temperature increase and what it causes.
Have you ever heard of this criticism and
519
00:56:41,329 --> 00:56:49,351
do you think this is still the case?
Bernhard: I hope not. The issue is, of
520
00:56:49,351 --> 00:56:59,290
course, that the IPCC reports, as always,
very, very carefully taking decisions and
521
00:56:59,290 --> 00:57:04,630
is very carefully looking at this. And
there are more conservative and the rather
522
00:57:04,630 --> 00:57:11,079
are lower than the than the actual
temperatures in the end, probably because
523
00:57:11,079 --> 00:57:16,250
there is, of course, also a lot of
pressure, political pressure on them. And
524
00:57:16,250 --> 00:57:21,940
so if they would predict something and
they would over predict, then people would
525
00:57:21,940 --> 00:57:27,930
immediately say, come and say, hey, you
are doing panicking and so on. And so
526
00:57:27,930 --> 00:57:36,130
that's why it is most likely that they try
to be as accurate as possible. But they
527
00:57:36,130 --> 00:57:42,820
rather choose the lower the. The lower
estimates.
528
00:57:42,820 --> 00:57:46,460
Question: Yeah. That was the
serious thing as well.
529
00:57:46,460 --> 00:57:50,569
Bernhard: That's let's say it's a very
it's a I mean in the end it's this summary
530
00:57:50,569 --> 00:57:56,550
for policymakers. I showed some slides
from that. That is actually voted on by
531
00:57:56,550 --> 00:58:04,130
the buyer of governmental agents. So they
bring this intergovernmental round of the
532
00:58:04,130 --> 00:58:11,110
U.N. They are a U.N. entity. And so and
the governments actually say you have to
533
00:58:11,110 --> 00:58:17,460
approve this. And so that's why it's very,
very diplomatic. And the terms of. So they
534
00:58:17,460 --> 00:58:22,880
are doing reasons for concern, you know.
So it's I mean, people are concerned about
535
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:26,410
all kinds of things. Thanks.
Herald: All right, then we hope over to
536
00:58:26,410 --> 00:58:29,750
microphone two, please.
Mic 2: OK. First, thank you for your
537
00:58:29,750 --> 00:58:36,141
talk. All good mood is gone now. And if
it's mainly a political problem, do you
538
00:58:36,141 --> 00:58:41,940
have any idea how we can force politicians
to make the right decisions now? Because
539
00:58:41,940 --> 00:58:45,960
what we are doing at the moment, like
protesting and voting, doesn't seem to
540
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:52,660
work.
Berhard: Well, I *some applause* I think
541
00:58:52,660 --> 00:58:58,099
actually I'm very happy because I think
protesting works, but it does not work in
542
00:58:58,099 --> 00:59:04,120
the same way that people who usually take
it to the streets think it works. It puts
543
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:08,609
a lot of pressure onto them. But it's one
pressure on. They also have pressure from
544
00:59:08,609 --> 00:59:13,530
other sites, you know, and then they look
at, you know, what are the my voters. And
545
00:59:13,530 --> 00:59:19,289
if their voters, are not the ones that are
on the streets. Well, they might be not as
546
00:59:19,289 --> 00:59:26,319
important. And so I think the main thing
is that needs to be done is to go out to
547
00:59:26,319 --> 00:59:32,470
the people. And thus going to the street
is one way of doing that. And tell that,
548
00:59:32,470 --> 00:59:37,460
you know, and talk to the people and talk
especially to those who are not there on
549
00:59:37,460 --> 00:59:42,369
the streets yet. Well, the potential
voters of those who think, well, I don't
550
00:59:42,369 --> 00:59:46,930
have to care so much about because these
are not my voters. And we just have to go
551
00:59:46,930 --> 00:59:52,470
out and talk. And I think this will put up
the pressure together with taking it to
552
00:59:52,470 --> 00:59:57,780
the streets and protesting and doing
whatever talking to politicians. I mean,
553
00:59:57,780 --> 01:00:02,779
we have a you know, Angela Merkel is our
our chancellor in Germany, and she is a
554
01:00:02,779 --> 01:00:08,280
physicist. I mean, she knows I mean, this
is she understands all this. You know,
555
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,900
it's not that she doesn't know. It's just
the pressure from the wrong side yet.
556
01:00:13,900 --> 01:00:18,180
Herald: All right. And we have time for
one last question. Microphone three,
557
01:00:18,180 --> 01:00:20,960
please.
Mic 3: Yes. Thank you very much for my
558
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:25,380
side, for the informative talk. From the
description of the talk, I was expecting
559
01:00:25,380 --> 01:00:30,520
more on the, it said something about the
resilience, about climate skepticism. Yes.
560
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:35,180
To be more resilient about their
arguments. And I was in discussion with
561
01:00:35,180 --> 01:00:40,880
many other people, also climate skepticism
and they sometimes said, they didn't
562
01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:44,970
criticize the entropy eugenic. Well, they
didn't criticize the climate change at
563
01:00:44,970 --> 01:00:49,500
all. But the anthropogenic part of it. And
what they said that there is like an
564
01:00:49,500 --> 01:00:54,020
increase of solar activity the last
decades, which increases to the
565
01:00:54,020 --> 01:01:00,540
temperature. And that also like the
diagram is like only from 1860. But if you
566
01:01:00,540 --> 01:01:06,390
consider like the last millennials, there
have been higher values of CO2 in the
567
01:01:06,390 --> 01:01:10,701
atmosphere, but the temperature did not
correlate. So how do you argue with this,
568
01:01:10,701 --> 01:01:15,680
this kind of argument?
Berhard: Yes, that's a good one. Yeah. I
569
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:25,430
didn't go into these these because they
are the sometimes the easy ones. But the
570
01:01:25,430 --> 01:01:38,329
thing is that there are... I did this talk
this way because it helps. If you go into.
571
01:01:38,329 --> 01:01:42,500
Climate, skeptics say this and they say a
lot of different things. If I could do a
572
01:01:42,500 --> 01:01:50,210
whole talk on what climate skeptics say.
If you do that, then in the end, people
573
01:01:50,210 --> 01:01:58,790
keep in mind, oh, yeah, this there is some
skepticism on this. And this is, I did a
574
01:01:58,790 --> 01:02:05,660
lot of these things because by this now
people can go out and say, OK, this is
575
01:02:05,660 --> 01:02:10,540
currently the state of the art of the
research. I did not go into the climate
576
01:02:10,540 --> 01:02:15,480
skeptic detailed answers. Of course there
are. I mean, I can make, for example,
577
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:20,480
thunder radiation is already in the
climate models, the changes in thunder
578
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:25,420
radiations. The variations of the
centuries before actually being
579
01:02:25,420 --> 01:02:31,050
precalculators in the climate models
currently, because only if you're able to
580
01:02:31,050 --> 01:02:37,170
run if you if you're able to mimic that in
climate models today, for today, all of
581
01:02:37,170 --> 01:02:42,900
the past. If you're able to do that, then
you're able to do to run it for the
582
01:02:42,900 --> 01:02:48,280
future. And this is how climate models
work. And so all this, all these
583
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:53,620
variations are taking in. So I'm sorry.
Herald: Oh, time is up.
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01:02:53,620 --> 01:02:57,450
Bernhard: But we can talk about this also
later on. I didn't get too much to the
585
01:02:57,450 --> 01:03:01,110
climate skeptics now. So much.
Herald: All right. We don't have time for
586
01:03:01,110 --> 01:03:06,840
any more questions, Bernard. *Applause*
That's your Applaus, thank you very much.
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01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:13,240
*postroll music*
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01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:33,830
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