<div id=":1w0">Your problem seems to resemble a Bayesian network. (The wikipedia page<br>
on this topic is not particularly revealing in my opinion BTW.)<br></div></blockquote></div><br><div>The courses of Sebastian Thrun on Artificial Intelligence both at Stanford or at Udacity are freely available, and they both have a great deal of explanations about this topic with examples. The ones at Udacity include also Python programming exercises.</div>