MLB News

Scoping out Stanton's stadium wish list

Statcast looks at how MVP could hit in parks in LA, NY, Chicago and Houston

By
David Adler

December 8, 2017

Giancarlo Stanton trade scenarios continue to be among the Hot Stove's biggest topics, and the last few days have offered little in the way of clarity. On Thursday night, it was reported that Stanton's preferred destinations are the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros. This came on the heels of weeks

Giancarlo Stanton trade scenarios continue to be among the Hot Stove's biggest topics, and the last few days have offered little in the way of clarity. On Thursday night, it was reported that Stanton's preferred destinations are the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros. This came on the heels of weeks of speculation that he was going to end up with the Giants or Cardinals. And then, on Friday, the Cardinals and Giants each issued statements saying that they were moving on from a potential deal due to his unwillingess to waive his no-trade clause.As things stand now, the reigning National League MVP Award winner -- who has full no-trade protection -- has not formally ruled out any teams, a source told MLB.com's Joe Frisaro on Friday. But Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Houston make for an interesting list of powerhouse teams after all four played in the postseason this past October.How would Stanton look playing in one of those cities? In his home games at Marlins Park in 2017, Stanton crushed 31 of his 59 home runs -- most of those going to the left side of the yard, with a few scattered to the opposite field. Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium, Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park would all present their own unique sets of advantages and drawbacks.MLB.com's Mike Petriello recently looked at how Stanton's batted ball profile at home would translate to other ballparks, using Statcast™ tracking data for each of his potential home runs in Miami last season -- batted balls at Marlins Park with projected distances of at least 300 feet. That breakdown was based on an earlier list of potential landing spots: St. Louis, San Francisco, Boston and Los Angeles (with the Dodgers still considered a preferred destination).Based on the trajectories of Stanton's potential homers and the wall heights of each stadium, we saw where Stanton might have gained or lost home runs at Busch Stadium, AT&T Park, Fenway Park and Dodger Stadium. Now, we can do the same thing for Stanton's new list.Dodger Stadium, Los AngelesHR gained: 3HR lost: 1Total HR change: +2MLB.com's earlier breakdown showed that Dodger Stadium would likely have been a net positive for Stanton's home run total. Stanton could have gained three home runs to left-center field, where the fences at Chavez Ravine are only eight feet high, compared to 14-20 feet in Miami.Stanton hit into a few outs to the wall at home in 2017, including leaping catches by the Phillies' Cameron Perkins and the Giants' Denard Span.

On the flip side, he might have lost only one homer in L.A., in right field, where the Dodger Stadium fence is slightly deeper than Marlins Park's. That was a June shot off the D-backs' Patrick Corbin that didn't clear the wall by much.

Yankee Stadium, New YorkHR gained: 0HR lost: 0Total HR change: No changeFor a right-handed hitter with heavier opposite-field tendencies -- someone like J.D. Martinez, whose suitors on the free agent market could parallel Stanton's on the trade market -- the short right field porch in the Bronx might be a bigger boost. But for Stanton, whose home runs are often crush jobs to the pull side, playing in Yankee Stadium might not have made much difference at all.In fact, the Statcast™ data suggests Stanton wouldn't have gained or lost a single home run in New York. The Yankee Stadium fence dimensions are pretty similar to Marlins Park in left field and center field, and the shorter right-field fence wouldn't have added any homers based on the smattering of fly balls Stanton hit that way.Wrigley Field, ChicagoHR gained: 3HR lost: 3Total HR change: No changeOn the North Side, things get a little interesting. Stanton would have almost definitely gained three homers -- the same ones he would at Dodger Stadium, but with a higher degree of certainty. That's because of Wrigley Field's much shallower dimensions in left-center compared to Marlins Park. Dodger Stadium is shorter to left-center, too, but Wrigley even more so, with the wall jutting in partway into left field then continuing on a flat angle toward center. Perkins, for example, would have run out of room to make his jumping grab.

But Big G could also lose a trio of homers in the right-field corner that would have negated the ones he gained in left-center. As it does in left field, Wrigley Field's fence starts deeper in the corner in right before jutting in, creating a small section of the field that could have contained Stanton's homer off Corbin, along with the likely additions of an August homer off the Rockies' German Marquez and a September homer off the Nationals' A.J. Cole.

Still, considering that the most dangerous aspect of Stanton's game is his pull power -- he lays into a lot more balls to left than he pops out to right -- Wrigley Field's dimensions seem like they might be more conducive to his home run game in general.Minute Maid Park, HoustonHR gained: 3HR lost: 0Total HR change: +3Minute Maid Park is one of the more unique stadiums in baseball, with the short porch of the Crawford Boxes in left field, the 25-foot-high wall in left-center and the generally cavernous center field. And yet, based on Stanton's home batted balls this season, Houston looks like it would have been a uniform positive for him.Stanton would have gained one home run from the Crawford Boxes: On June 28, he hit a sky-high flyout against the Mets' Steven Matz with an exit velocity of 104.5 mph, a launch angle of 43 degrees and a projected distance of 344 feet -- a fly ball tailor-made for Minute Maid.

He could have had two more in left-center; Stanton's moonshots probably had enough air to clear even the high wall in Houston, with the fence just a tad shorter than it is in the corresponding section of Marlins Park. And he wouldn't have lost a single homer.All in all, Stanton's home runs tend to be gone anywhere. When he turns his 6-foot-6 frame into a pitch, he's usually sending the ball a long way. But MLB stadiums each have their own quirks, and they have the potential to conjure up a long ball here and there, or take one away, even for one of the game's biggest sluggers. Even so, Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium, Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park are all at least as favorable as Miami to Stanton's biggest power area, the pull field.