“GDP growth slipped to its lowest since 2012, at 1.4%, down from 1.8% in 2017.” The UK’s dismal performance in 2018 gave the lie to “Philip Hammond’s claim that Britain can reap an economic dividend from Theresa May’s Brexit deal…as official figures confirmed the UK has suffered its worst year for GDP growth since 2012.”

“Evidence is mounting that the US-China trade war is dealing a blow to the American stock market. Stocks plunged on Thursday after Apple (AAPL) blamed a big sales miss on slowing growth in China and rising trade tensions. China’s massive manufacturing sector… has tumbled into contraction. And trade trouble helped fuel the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession.”

China’s belt and road master plan “to project Chinese power, influence and trade across much of the world could well undermine all three.” The trillion-dollar global infrastructure scheme has gotten out of control. “A scaled-down, better-managed Belt and Road—guided more by economics and less by politics—should, as intended, promote growth and trade across the region and beyond. That would serve everybody’s interests.”

“Just a year ago the world was enjoying a synchronised economic acceleration. In 2017 growth rose in every big advanced economy except Britain, and in most emerging ones.” Today, “the story is very different” and America alone is still outperforming. “This week’s market volatility suggests time could be short. The world should start preparing now for the next recession, while it still can.”

In the U.S. many “asset management stocks are trading like ‘junk equity,’” despite the relatively buoyant market. And “given the lackluster potential for growth, traditional asset managers’ cheap valuations are unlikely to change soon.”

“Investors propelled bond yields to multiyear highs Wednesday as robust economic data and an easing of trade tensions across North America sparked fresh optimism about the global growth outlook. Wednesday’s bond rout sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investors’ sentiment toward growth and inflation, to its highest level since July 2011.”

“Mr Abe may be burning to give Japan a more normal foreign policy, but what it needs most is a more normal economy. His signature policy—Abenomics—is far from complete. The fiscal and monetary expansion, his first two “arrows”, were supposed to buy time for the third and most important one: sweeping structural reforms, leading to enduring growth. The economy should take precedence over constitutional reform… Otherwise, Mr Abe will be remembered less for his long tenure than for wasting it.”

“After earnings carnage at global auto rivals,” Toyota is in the “spotlight.” From Detroit to Seoul, Toyota’s global rivals “fell short of estimates and warned of more pain from the trade war.” In contrast, “the world’s most valuable automaker will likely report modest sales and earnings growth for the most recent quarter.” But going forward the automaker still “faces a fight on every front. Potential U.S. tariffs threaten to cripple demand in its biggest market, rivals continue to pull ahead in China, and at home, the top-selling Prius is suffering a slump in popularity.”

“What’s next for commodities after a recent price collapse? It looks like more bad news, if the chart watchers are right. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has tumbled about 10 percent from a high in May amid mounting concerns that a trade war could derail global growth, curbing demand for everything from aluminum to soybeans.”

“As the world’s largest exporter, China continues to benefit from robust global demand, but the increase in tensions and trade barriers with the U.S. is weighing on the outlook…. President Xi Jinping may ultimately have to choose between softening his multi-year campaign to control debt levels, or letting growth dip below the target of 6.5 percent.”