Monday, February 6, 2017

Alright, so I can't bring myself to post a music post every week. It's too much work, but what I'd like to do (cross your fingers I stick with it) is write up a little summary of the month in music with my picks (from that month's crop) for the big three with The Grammys (SOTY, ROTY, AOTY).

January already started us off well, with a few GREAT albums and some songs that I expect to hang on to for at least the majority of the year.

Friday, January 13, 2017

I don't know what's happened to me. I'm completely falling down on the job. I promised to keep up with the awards this year as a way to boost my personal blogging and I missed the Globe winners AND the BAFTA noms (yes, I saw them or read about them or whatever, but I didn't blog about them) and despite telling myself for like a week that I was going to, I'm not. I feel like I'm still trying to find my place within the community that I love and part of me feels so out of it. I HATE that I am not blogging as much as I used to or that I'm not stopping by to comment on your blogs like I used to...I just can't seem to get it together.

Anyways, this was not supposed to be some sob-blog post, but rather a measly attempt to weigh in on the Oscar race.

DGA...the Directors Guild of America. They don't always get it right, but a lot of times they point us in the right direction.

For those following the Oscar race, ATM, the directing category is really up in the air after the solidified winner, Damien Chazelle. After that, it's anybody's guess. I know that this seems like a vapid statement when you look at the fact that Barry Jenkins has won more critics prizes than anyone else, but let's be real here...Moonlight, as good as it may be, is not an AMPAS film, and because of that he is not infallible. He's most likely getting the nom, but being a black director making a film about the 'gay' black community is not a sure-fire Oscar nom.

He also missed BAFTA.

Lonergan is also very much in this, but not assured considering that he has the least 'directorly' film in contention. Still, the fact that Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight feel like the closest bet to Oscar BP locks next to the actual Oscar winner (yes, I said it...and I called it in like April) La La Land kind of makes them very likely Oscar nominees.

That leaves us with a slew of names that I can't wrap my brain around.

Mackenzie has been gaining rapid traction for his western, Hell or High Water, which looks like a Top 5 BP contender at this point. He's been nominated by a slew of critics, including BFCA. Garth Davis seemed almost dead, but Weinstein must be working his magic because after missing everywhere...he managed the DGA nom. Villeneuve has been mentioned all year long, and he snagged BAFTA and DGA...but I'm so skeptical because as much as I love Arrival, it is sci-fi and that is never a safe Oscar bet...except for when it is.

And then there is Gibson, who's ultra-violent film has been doing really well with critics for some reason.

But my biggest director question mark is Martin Scorsese. His film, Silence, hasn't landed ANYWHERE this season (very slight hyperbole there) and it has me wondering if it's dead entirely...except that I'm pretty sure it isn't. I have a feeling this will be one of those instances where AMPAS showers it with nominations we should have all seen coming, including director. It also doesn't hurt that every other possibly nominee, outside of Gibson, would be a first time nominee. Oscar likes to nominate a veteran somewhere.

So...where does that leave us?

Chazelle...locked.
Lonergan and Jenkins...very likely.
Davis, Mackenzie and Villeneuve...most likely battling it out for that 'welcome to the club' nom (even though Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan would also be first time nominees).
Scorsese...wild card nom statistics defy.
Gibson...dead.

My money, atm, is on a lineup of Chazelle, Davis, Jenkins, Lonergan, Scorsese...but I have many doubts.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

La La Land missing here makes sense even if I predicted that they'd still nominate it. It is a two-person show with little mention ever of the supporting cast, so the fact that they stuck with ensemble heavy films makes sense. Captain Fantastic kind of came out of nowhere though. I had heard rumbling that it could play well, but I didn't believe it. I guess I was wrong.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis for Fences

Naomi Harris for Moonlight

Nicole Kidman for Lion

Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea

So, it is now looking like this is our lineup. I didn't believe the Spencer nom but she hit here and the Globes so it looks like consensus has settled on her within the ensemble, and she's a previous Oscar winner who many think was snubbed back in 2013, so this makes sense. What an F-You to #OscarsSoWhite, too, if we get three actresses of color in one category.

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali for Moonlight

Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges for Manchester By the Sea

Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins

Dev Patel for Lion

Ali and Bridges are locked in for the Oscars, but this category still feels ripe for a surprise, especially since Silence is a late contender with multiple options going for it in this category alone. I have faith in Hedges, who has cleaned up this season by proving he's more than just a 'breakthrough' contender. Almost everyone has nominated him here. Sadly, Oscar isn't always kind to young actors, and so he could still be snubbed, but I am predicting a nom for him. Grant and Patel could both happen...but right now I think one of them will be left off for the likes of Liam Neeson.

Lead Actor

Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea

Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling for La La Land

Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington for Fences

So, this was the kiss of death for Tom Hanks. I think he needed this to stay in the race. I don't think this will be our lineup. I'm still a little hesitant to trust in the Garfield nom. I think that Silence could cause confusion as to which performance to nominate and that could lead to him being snubbed. I also don't wholly trust in Mortensen, who has felt like a fringe contender at best all season. I still hold out faith that Edgerton will get in. He didn't hit here, like I expected, but supposedly screeners went out very late and so that could explain it. His role is such AMPAS bait and so I hate a strong feeling he'll surprise come nomination morning.

Lead Actress

Amy Adams for Arrival

Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train

Natalie Portman for Jackie

Emma Stone for La La Land

Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

LMAO a thousand times for the randomness of this Blunt nomination. OMG!!! This has made my year. So...we can count her out immediately, which frees up a spot here (which we know is going to Huppert), but I still think we could see a surprise in the form of Ruth Negga (I know, this seems crazy) replacing Streep. Adams, Portman and Stone seem locked in. Whoever takes this will most likely take the Oscar (cough*Stone*cough).

Monday, December 12, 2016

So...my first thought was 'maybe they didn't see Silence' and then I read that they did so apparently they just really didn't like it, which is odd since they usually fawn all over Scorsese. But, there is a lot of weird stuff happening all over these nominations. Lion shows up a lot here, which was a touch unexpected, and I think both Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge are cemented firmly in this race now.

Picture ~ Comedy/Musical

20th Century Women

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

Sing Street

I did NOT see Deadpool coming, but Sing Street is such an awesome surprise. Just saw it last night and I'm currently IN LOVE!

Director

Damien Chazelle for La La Land

Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals

Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By the Sea

Ok, things are starting to get a little weird now, considering that Ford shows up here (just wait for all the Nocturnal Animals love) but the rest I sort of saw coming (didn't count on Jenkins, but he's doing VERY well this season). Gibson...could be headed to the Oscars?

Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Manchester By the Sea

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Nocturnal Animals showing up everywhere here is strange for the sole reason that it just feels so 'dead' as far as AMPAS is concerned. In fact, I don't see it snagging a single nomination, especially not for Screenplay. The rest are on their way to the Oscars, for sure.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis for Fences

Naomi Harris for Moonlight

Nicole Kidman for Lion

Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea

I don't know what to make of Hidden Figures. Is it even in this race? Spencer and Monae seem to be splitting decisions and not in a good way. It's either one or the other, not both, which leads me to believe that neither will make it with AMPAS.

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali for Moonlight

Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water

Simon Helberg for Florence Foster Jenkins

Dev Patel for Lion

Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals

Poor Michael Shannon. The best reviews of the entire cast of his film and what looked like a surefire critics darling and a) he loses all the critics awards to Ali and b) be gets snubbed with the Globes in favor of his co-star. And who the hell is Simon Helberg. Ball was seriously dropped here. Is Neeson even getting nominated? They could have went with Foster or Sarsgaard or Hedges. This is a very weird lineup.

Lead Actor ~ Drama

Casey Affleck for Manchester By the Sea

Joel Edgerton for Loving

Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge

Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington for Fences

The first real Hanks snub of the season and I'm seriously starting to think that both Edgerton and Garfield are getting Oscar noms in favor of Hanks.

Lead Actor ~ Comedy/Musical

Colin Farrell for The Lobster

Ryan Gosling for La La Land

Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins

Jonah Hill for War Dogs

Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool

The fact that Russell Crowe was snubbed is heartbreaking, even if I saw it coming. His comedic timing and chemistry with Gosling (who could have been double nominated and probably should have) was a thing of real beauty. That being said, Farrell popping up is glorious.

Lead Actress ~ Drama

Amy Adams for Arrival

Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane

Isabelle Huppert for Elle

Ruth Negga for Loving

Natalie Portman for Jackie

This is the only category I predicted 5/5. I called the Chastain nom. They love to reach out to every possible star they can, and she made sense.

Lead Actress ~ Comedy Musical

Annette Bening for 20th Century Women

Lily Collins for Rules Don't Apply

Hailee Steinfeld for The Edge of Seventeen

Emma Stone for La La Land

Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

LOL, didn't Lily Collins get...bad reviews? I bet Steinfeld wishes this were a weaker year, because her reviews could have carried her to a Ellen Page style nom (she's already an Oscar nominee), but Stone is taking this in a walk and both Bening and Streep have their claws in that Oscar nom over Steinfeld, who simply won't happen.

Score

Arrival (Johann Johannsson)

Hidden Figures (Benjamin Wallfisch, Pharrell Williams & Hans Zimmer)

La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)

Lion (Hauschka & Dustin O'Halloran)

Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)

I love seeing La La Land included all over the place because I was afraid the beautiful music would be shunned due to the song heavy soundtrack. I don't know what to make of all the Moonlight attention in this category. Is it happening?

Song

'Can't Stop The Feeling!' from Trolls

'City of Stars' from La La Land

'Faith' from Sing

'Gold' from Gold

'How Far I'll Go' from Moana

You nominated Sing Street for Picture and...don't include a single song when practically every one is better than the five you nominate? This is just plain stupid.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

What does all this mean? Jackie and Loving are, most likely, dead...Zootopia is winning the Animated Film Oscar, Fences is probably Top 5 (which means Denzel is probably happening in Director) and Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge are the REAL DEAL this season. This is shaping up to look like an obvious Oscar ballot.

About Me

What is there to say? I love movies, books, music...whatever and I love talking about it. I love predicting Oscars and publishing my own personal awards (Fistis!) and I love hearing what you have to say about what I have to post. It's come a long way from it's very humble (and slightly embarrassing) beginnings and has turned into a blog that I'm very proud to be the founder of.