Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 45 mph with some gusts reported to be higher. Harvey is expected to weaken to tropical depression status later today and will eventually move through the center of the country and off the east coast by Monday.

Rainfall amounts around the Lafayette and Acadiana area will generally be less than one inch for today. Most of the heavier precipitation is on the western side of the circulation and well to the east of the center of circulation.

The rainfall forecast is depicted in the graphic below provided by the National Hurricane Center.

nhc.noaa.gov

(Updated 29 Aug 2017 - 16:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is crawling toward the coast at this hour. The current track should bring the system onshore near the Texas Louisiana border later this evening or in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

The 4 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center fixed the center of circulation 75 miles south of Cameron Louisiana. The storm was moving to the north northeast at 6 mph. On this current track, Harvey should make landfall between midnight at 6 AM.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City Louisiana westward to Port O'Connor in Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch extends eastward from Morgan City to Grand Isle Louisiana.

There is a potential for a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet in the warned area. Heavy rainfall is also likely for South Louisiana and Southeast Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours as the system moves inland. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible during the next 24 to 36 hours.

(Updated 29 Aug 2017- 07:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is now moving very slowly to the east northeast at 3 mph. This is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center track forecast issued earlier today.

The maximum sustained winds at the center of the storm were 45 mph. The center of the storm was determined to be 145 miles south southwest of Port Arthur Texas.

The Hurricane Center's next full advisory is at 10:00 AM CDT.

(Updated 29 Aug 2017 - 04:00 CDT) Tropical downpours and gusty breezes will continue to be Tropical Storm Harvey's calling card today. The center of the storm at the 4 AM Advisory was located about 135 miles south southwest of Port Arthur Texas. The system continues a very slow drift to the east at 3 mph.

The maximum sustained winds associated with Harvey continue to be 45 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out from the center of circulation 175 miles. Gusty winds and heavy rain squalls will increase as Harvey gets closer to the coastline later today and tonight.

Currently, a tropical storm warning is posted from Intracoastal City Louisiana westward to Mesquite Bay in Texas. A tropical storm surge watch has been posted to the east of the warned area through Morgan City Louisiana.

(Updated 28 Aug 2017 - 16:00 CDT) The National Hurricane Center in its 4 PM advisory reported that Tropical Storm Harvey had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. That is up slightly from the previous advisory. The center of circulation of the storm is now over water and was determined to be 45 miles east of Port O'Connor Texas or about 145 miles south of Port Arthur Texas.

Harvey continued to drift to the east southeast at 3 mph. A general slow motion to the southeast is forecast through tonight. The system is expected to turn toward the northeast during the day tomorrow. That motion is expected to bring Harvey on shore for a third landfall near the Texas Louisiana border on Wednesday.

Flooding rains and the possibility of tornadoes will continue to be the biggest threat from this system in South Louisiana. The Lake Charles area could see an additional six to ten inches of rainfall over the next several days. While the area from Lafayette eastward might see only four to six inches. Regardless of the amount, any additional rainfall will exacerbate the already high water conditions in the area. Those are generalizations based on the graphic display from the National Hurricane Center below.

These watches and warnings are in response to the new forecast track advisory issued at 10 AM. This track brings tropical storm Harvey back on shore between Houston and Lake Charles early Wednesday morning.

The major threat from Harvey will continue to be flooding rains. Flood warnings and watches have been posted for much of South Louisiana. Forecasters are predicting another 10 to 15 inches of rain for much of Southwest Louisiana between now and Friday. Persons living in South Central Louisiana should expect between six and ten inches of additional precipitation over that same time frame.

nhc.noaa.gov

(Updated 28 Aug 2017 - 04:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey continues to drift slowly toward the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have determined the center of circulation of the storm to be about 15 miles north northeast of Port O'Connor Texas. The system was moving toward the southeast at 3 mph. This motion should put the center of Harvey back over water later today.

Forecasters believe the system will take a northeasterly turn during the day on Tuesday. Some strengthening of the system is possible while the center of circulation remains over water.

The 4 AM forecast track keeps Harvey as a major player in South Louisiana's weather forecast at least through Thursday. The main threat from the system will be continued heavy rainfall.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Louisiana south of I-10 in the slight risk category for severe weather including tornadoes. Flash Flood Watches have been posted for much of the area through Thursday.

The newly issued forecast track suggests that Harvey will still be a major weather player through Thursday. If the forecast track holds true the system should move north of Texas and Louisiana by Friday.

While officials along the Texas Gulf Coast are attempting to assess the wind and wave damage from Harvey's landfall on Friday most of the focus today has been on the torrential rains that Harvey has spawned in Southeast Texas and South Louisiana.

The latest rainfall forecast suggests that Southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles, could see an additional 15 to 20 inches of rain before Harvey leaves the area later this week. The area west of a Vermilion Bay to Toledo Bend line could receive another 10 to 15 inches of rain. Areas to the east of that line could experience another four to ten inches of precipitation. The graphic below illustrates the projected rainfall.

The maximum sustained winds of the system are at 40 mph and the motion of the storm is a painfully slow drift to the south southeast at 2 mph. As of the 10 AM advisory, the center of the storm was determined to be 35 miles west northwest of Victoria Texas.

Flooding will be the major focus for South Louisiana over the next several days as the rainfall potential forecast suggests there could be an additional six to ten inches of precipitation across the region.

The system was basically stationary but reported to be drifting to the south southwest at less than 2 mph. This slow motion will mean even more rain for an area that has already received a foot or more of precipitation.

Forecasters believe an additional 15 to 25 inches of rain could fall over the same area between now and Monday. Some locations could receive as much as 40 inches of rain before the storm finally exits the area.

The latest rainfall forecast from the Weather Service, depicted in the graphic below, suggests that extreme southwest Louisiana including the city of Lake Charles could receive an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain over the next five days.

For the cities of Lafayette, Crowley, Eunice, Opelousas, and New Iberia an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain is likely. Rainfall accumulation decreases the further east and away from the storm you happen to be. Still, Baton Rouge and New Orleans could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain over the next five days.

The center of circulation was reported to be 45 miles west northwest of Victoria Texas or 60 miles east southeast of San Antonio. The system was drifting to the north northwest at 2 mph. The continued weakening of the system is expected for the remainder of the day.

The effects of Harvey on South Louisiana may not really be felt until early next week when the system is expected to move out of Texas. In the meantime, we can expect tropical rain bands to pass through the area with periods of very heavy rainfall.

(Updated 26 Aug 2017-10:00 CDT) Hurricane Harvey is just barely a hurricane as of the 10 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The maximum sustained winds of the system were posted at 75 mph which is just one mile an hour above the hurricane threshold of 74 mph. The storm should be downgraded to tropical storm status perhaps as early as the 1 PM intermediate advisory.

The center of circulation of the storm was estimated to be 35 miles west of Victoria Texas or 80 miles east southeast of San Antonio. Harvey was drifting to the north at 2 mph. The system is expected to move very slowly or remain basically stationary through Monday.

The tropical forecast models and the official track from the Hurricane Center call for the system to drift slowly to the south and southeast toward the coast as a tropical storm. By early Wednesday forecasters believe Harvey will then begin to move northward out of the affected area.

The main threat from Harvey as a hurricane or tropical storm for South Louisiana continues to be heavy rainfall. Although forecasters now believe the rainfall totals will not be as copious as once believed. Still, that is not a reason to let down your guard where flooding is concerned since tropical rain bands can drop a lot of water in a very short period of time as they pass over a localized area.

Below are the rainfall predictions for the next several days.

nhc.noaa.gov

(Updated 26 Aug 2017- 07:00 CDT) Hurricane Harvey continues to weaken but is still a very dangerous storm. The maximum sustained winds as of the 7 AM advisory were 80 mph. That is just six miles above the hurricane threshold and down significantly from when the storm made landfall late Friday.

The center of Harvey was determined to be about 20 miles west southwest of Victoria Texas or 95 miles southeast of San Antonio. The motion of the storm was listed at 6 mph to the northwest.

The effects of Harvey on south Louisiana will likely be heavy rainfall for the next several days. Forecasters predict that rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be common from the Atchafalaya Basin to the Texas line. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur west of a Crowley to Leesville line.

(Updated 26 Aug 2017- 04:00 CDT). The center of Hurricane Harvey continues to move inland over the middle Texas coast. This advisory indicated the center of the storm was 30 miles southwest of Victoria Texas or 105 miles southeast of San Antonio Texas.

Harvey was moving to the northwest at 6 mph. The storm is expected to weaken to tropical storm status over the next several hours as it remains over land.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center does suggest the system will stall later today and then begin to push back toward the coast. The consensus thinking suggests that the system will not move back over water before it loops around in a northerly direction.

The greatest threat for South Louisiana will be rainfall. The graphic below indicates likely rainfall totals for the area between now and next Saturday.