North Korea and history is our best teacher for influencing our actions

by Armstrong Williams

This image made from video of a news bulletin aired by North Korea's KRT on Nov. 29, 2017, shows an image of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un signing what is said to be a document on Nov. 28, 2017, authorizing a missile test. After two and a half months of relative peace, North Korea launched its most powerful weapon yet early Wednesday, claiming a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that some observers believe could put Washington and the entire eastern U.S. seaboard within range. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this photo. (KRT via AP Video)

The following is an editorial by Armstrong Williams.

We the People need our leaders to elevate the discussion about options, short of all out war, as the administration navigates our way through the vexing North Korean issue. There is no hiding the fact that the past three Presidents, Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama all contributed significantly to the current pending disaster. Decades of poorly conceived policy and feckless international conduct has brought us to this point.

There are still a number of Presidential tools available for use, that don’t seem to have made their way into the public discussion, or I suspect the Title 50 options have yet to be presented to the DCI or the President. The State department and Pentagon are following the outdated, and useless, Cold War decision making matrix of gradual escalation, measured or proportional response, etc. that were the cornerstone of our success in the Cold War. We have used this same matrix since 9-11 against Al Qaida, ISIS, dealing with Iran, etc. and failed for 16 plus years. It worked with Russia in the cold war because Russia had a rational, well educated and experienced leadership system, a nation with an Orthodox Christian belief system and basis of decision making. NK does not believe, think or act in a moral, faith based, or rational way. Therefore a response matrix based on those precepts applied against NK has not worked, nor will it work. We, as a nation, continue to do the same thing, over and over and expect a different result.

First, its very important the administration deliver an oval office address, and explain the North Korean issue and why NK poses an existential threat to the United States and the safety of individual Americans in Hawaii, Alaska and the west coast. The last missile test is a new milestone and technical development, and changes the national security calculus. The American people need to be braced on this issue with a dose of reality. Make no mistake, if conventional conflict breaks out on the Korean peninsula the war will be a heinous affair, and the casualties will be horrific. This images will shock the world. Unless one has visited or lived in Korea, its hard for people to grasp how fast and how brutally conventional war will impact one of the largest and most crowded metropolitan cities in the world.

The Oval office address should explain our mutual defense treaties with our historic Asian allies and why we stand together on this issue. An Oval office address will make China, Russia and NK pay attention, and lay the groundwork for the Administration to exercise, without any public warning, a much more robust set of tools and actions to demonstrate our intention to fatally squeeze if necessary, and punish North Korean conduct, change their strategic direction and create chaos inside NK and the China border area in the process. NK will push until we mark the red line, and put the country in a vise. These signals are essential to create the conditions inside NK and China for both countries leadership groups to understand and react to the new sanctions, actions and intent of the United States. In a phrase, if we expect to change their perception of events and the costs to them of continued pursuit of the missile and nuclear capacity, we must DO SOMETHING to trigger their reevaluation.

Perception management and covert influence efforts have yet to be effectively exercised. I really believe the President has not been briefed on any title 50 specific covert action, sabotage, direct action, or deception options for North Korea. NK continues to test and launch missiles because they can, and know there is no penalty for doing so. This must change. After the Oval address, the President can order a “quarantine” of the North Korean nation. No ships, no aircraft, no banking, no money, no food. Sanction and freeze any wire transfer of any and all companies that are doing business with NK, in any sector. Focus this effort on Iran and NK together. Paint them into the same frame. We should tie Iran at the hip to NK. Iran, flush with cash and resources given to them by Obama, no longer has to risk testing its own missiles and pursuit of their nuclear R&D program. They can pay NK to do it. There are Iranian missile and nuclear technicians are present at every launch from NK.

The US could shoot the next missile test down before the missile leaves NK airspace. If that were to occur, the US could immediately release a statement that we struck the missile because our information on telemetry and targeting from inside N Korea indicated the missile was programmed to strike a land based target. This will create an immediate security witch hunt inside NK’s system. The President can take actions under title 50 that sews hate, distrust and fear inside NK’s military and leadership circle.

We should signal NK and China, of our preparations for all out war on the Peninsula. Moving the carrier battle groups to the theater was the first step. There should be more signals. Flood North Korea with information via every outlet we have to communicate with the population. Tell the NK people what their Dear Leader is doing. We could, as has been done before, change the profile of the alert fighter aircraft on the carriers in theater and the fleet working to defend the carrier.

Example of proactive deception operations: In the last meeting between Secretary Baker and Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz before Desert Storm in 1990-91, we wanted to ensure Saddam understood if he used chemical, bio, or nuke weapons, the response from the US would erase the culture, people and nation of Iraq. Because Aziz was the only Christian in Saddam’s inner circle, Baker used a Biblical reference in the final discussions. That statement, was coupled to a move on a Carrier deck where we placed the alert fighters on the catapults, and loaded nuclear munitions on the wings. The signature of this event was deliberately exposed and the Russians picked up on it. They flashed this information to Saddam in Baghdad, and told Saddam if he used “special munitions” the US would use nuclear weapons immediately. The effort worked and produced the desired result; Saddam pulled his chemical weapons off the front lines in a big hurry, and never employed them in the war.