Football’s a tough old game. By Wednesday morning, Gareth Southgate will go down in history as either a mastermind or a monumental failure. A win against Colombia will see the 47-year-old lauded for shrewdly steering his team on to a very achievable route to a final. A loss will be met with questions about why he rested nine of his starting eleven in the loss to Belgium, subsequently denying England a more favourable chance of progressing to the quarter-final with a round of 16 tie against Fifa’s 61st-ranked Japan.

There is, of course, a temptation for England players to feel buoyant about their side of the draw and what lies ahead should they beat Colombia – Switzerland or Sweden, then Russia or Croatia – but they mustn’t underestimate their next opponents. In tournaments gone by, the Three Lions have often struggled against the industry and imagination of South American sides and José Pékerman's team has that in spades.

But England’s biggest test on Tuesday night won’t be with their opponents, but themselves. Can Southgate’s first-choice eleven switch back on after an eight-day break, with Colombia still locked in to the buzz of beating Senegal in their final group game just four days ago? Harry Kane and co might feel fresher, but momentum can go a long way.

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Expectations heading into Russia 2018 were nonexistent for the English team. It was about enjoying the ride, embracing a new-look team and giving it time to grow. But the truth is, as it stands, England have never had a better chance to win the World Cup since 1966 and now there is a new message from their captain. “You have to believe,” Kane told the BBC when asked if they can go all the way. “There is a long way to go, a lot of hard work, but we just have to stick to our game plan.”

England vs Colombia kick-off time

The World Cup round of 16 game kicks off on Tuesday 3 July at 7pm, Spartak Stadium. Brits can watch it on ITV or stream it live via the ITV Hub app. Commentary for the match is also available on BBC Radio 5 live.

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England team news

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England’s second string did little to inspire any changes to Southgate’s first-choice eleven against Belgium, thus making his team selection for their first knockout round quite simple. Expect the same lineup that faced Tunisia in the group game, including Dele Alli who has recovered from a thigh injury to take the place of Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Marcus Rashford had a chance to win a starting berth over Raheem Sterling, but failed to deliver. The team picks itself.

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Colombia team news

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Pékerman will leave his decision whether to play James Rodriguez or not until the final hour. The Bayern Munich midfielder was substituted in the 30th minute due to a calf injury in their last group game against Senegal but, with the news that he is only suffering from minor edema (slight swelling), Colombia fans can expect their star man to make it to the ball on time.

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England vs Colombia prediction

A lively start from both teams will fizzle out and be replaced with a cautionary approach, which will take the teams all the way to extra time, where England’s freshness will prevail and help avoid a penalty shootout. Substitutes will be the key to winning this game and there is more quality coming from England’s side of the dugout.