Another Cut in Natural Gas Surplus

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, reflecting the commodity’s brisk use for power generation in the face of extreme summer temperatures.

Despite the relatively soft (and below estimate) supply build, the latest injection – the 22nd in 2012 – has added to already bloated inventories. Gas stocks – currently some 15% above the benchmark levels – are at their highest point for this time of the year, reflecting low demand amid robust onshore output. This has constantly exerted pressure on spot prices that slipped to a 10-year low in April.

While natural gas inventories are no doubt still at elevated levels, injections since late April have been significantly lower than the average for this time, cutting the surplus relative to last year and the five-year average.

Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 20 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended August 10, 2012, lower than the guidance range (of 22–26 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP).

The increase was also lower than both last year’s build and the 5-year (2007–2011) average addition – of 43 Bcf each – for the reported week, thereby trimming the surplus relative to the benchmarks.

But in spite of the ‘below-average’ build during the past week, the current storage level – at 3.261 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) – is still up 442 Bcf (15.7%) from the last year and 363 Bcf (12.5%) over the five-year average.

Due to this huge natural gas surplus, inventories in underground storage started to climb since March – weeks earlier than the usual summer stock-building season of April through October. They have persistently exceeded the five-year average since late September last year and are likely to test the nation’s underground storage facilities by fall. In fact, the EIA foresees natural gas storage at record highs of around 4.0 Tcf by October end.

A supply glut has pressured natural gas prices during the past year or so, as production from dense rock formations (shale) – through novel techniques of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – remain robust, thereby overwhelming demand.

To make matters worse, near-record mild winter weather across most of the country curbed natural gas demand for heating, leading to an early beginning for the stock-building season. The grossly oversupplied market continues to pressure commodity prices in the backdrop of sustained strong production.

This prompted natural gas prices to dive approximately 63% from the 2011 peak of $4.92 per million Btu (MMBtu) in June to a 10-year low of $1.82 per MMBtu during late April 2012 (referring to spot prices at the Henry Hub, the benchmark supply point in Louisiana).

However, in the recent past (since the week ended April 27, to be precise), repeated smaller-than-average storage builds have rallied back prices toward $3.00 per MMBtu. This can be attributed to strong demand by the utilities, as beaten down prices of natural gas have convinced them to switch to the commodity from the more costly coal.

With hot summer weather prevailing across the country over the past two months, homes and businesses have been prompted to increase electricity draws to run air conditioners.