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Soccer Picks: Portugal vs. Israel

Portugal hosts Israel in World Cup qualifying action at the weekend. Find out where the value is to be had and what our choice picks are for the match.

Portugal trail Russia in Group F by a point
and as such their next match is a must-win game if they want to keep their hope
of automatic qualification for Brazil alive.

In fact, Portugal conceded top spot last
month when Russia beat Israel 3-1 in St. Petersburg and if Russia goes on to
win their next two matches away they’ll qualify automatically for Brazil
thereby leaving (most likely) Portugal to decide their own fate in play-off
action in November.

Israel trails six points behind Russia and
five points behind Portugal. They are still within a slim (really stressing the word slim) shot of securing second-place and,
in turn, keeping their hope alive for qualifying. But that hope rests solely on
the result in Lisbon. They must win. Defeat will ensure Portugal finishes no
lower than second and therefore send them into the play-offs.

Portugal
vs. Israel betting preview and odds

Home advantage is definitely felt in the odds on this match as Portugal goes
into the clash as the undisputed -600 favourites to win outright at Bet365
while the visitors are tipped at a whopping +1200 and even the draw is
installed at a large +650.

Now this market stands in stark contrast to
their last meeting in March that was a rather dramatic affair in Ramat Gan and
which saw six goals and ended on a stalemate.
Portugal opened the scoring straight out of the gates but Israel were
quick to respond 20 minutes later and draw level. Just before the first half
ended Israel took the 2:1 lead into the locker room. They would extend their
lead in the second half on a 70th minute goal by Null Gershon, all
but looking to be on their way to deliver a major upset in Group F betting action.

Portugal finally woke up from their reverie
however and answered two minutes later and then deep into stoppage time Fabio
Coentrao scored the equalizer that brought them level and quite frankly
salvaged their World Cup campaign.

The manner in which sportsbooks cast the reverse leg of this matchup, it’s clear they
aren’t expecting a repeat. It’s down to the wire, the penultimate round, and
the overriding expectation is that Portugal will rise to the occasion and
deliver a comprehensive victory. And we have to agree and, as such, we are
going with a Portugal win at -600 for
our first choice pick.

Now this doesn’t mean Israel is expected to
be a pushover or that you shouldn’t consider them as your choice pick to win this match if you are so inclined. Certainly,
the match they played at Ramat Gan showed they could match the big boys of
Europe despite relinquishing the lead towards the end. But make no mistake it’s
a tall order not to mention it would ring in as one of the biggest upsets of
the qualifying rounds.

The reality is Israel’s squad is struggling
with injuries and coach Eli Guttmann is faced with some tough decisions. The
obvious question: How can they possibly hope to contain Cristiano Ronaldo and
company under such conditions?

Speaking of Cristiano Ronaldo and his
leadership on the pitch coupled with his sublime abilities, if he has one of
his out-of-this-world-nights, it’s hard to imagine Israel would stand a chance.

Odds makers favour the Over 2.5 at -188 at
Bet365 and look no further than score markets to figure out which way that
scoring balance tips. You’ll find most scores that reflect Portugal in the lead
are priced shorter than those of their counterpart are. For example a 3-0 score
is priced at +550 while a 2-1 score is priced at +850 for our soccer picks. The lowest price on an
Israel score is +2800 and that is on a 1-0 score.

[gameodds]36/244632/?r-1=43-19-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The favouritism of Portugal extends
throughout markets on this matchup. Portugal to win both halves is listed at
-188 and Portugal to win by a goal or two is priced the shortest at +275 in
winning margin markets. Portugal to win by +3 goals is listed at +375 on many soccer betting odds boards.

Soccer betting verdict: Portugal must win
if they hope to keep hope alive and while that adds pressure on them they are
no strangers to it. Soccer nations of their ilk know how to rise to the
occasion and therefore they are the smart pick here. To add value, take the
Over 2.5 at -188 as well as Portugal to win by a several goal margin. The
2-goal margin is the conservative option at +275 but for those bolder punters, the 3-goal margin at +375 is a nicer option.