Muller
10.32 Unadjusted data is similar to three indices. Why? Muller surprised. Comments on Watts: Poor stations don’t rise more than good stations. Compliments McIntyre and Watts. Some of the biases less of a problem than previously thought.

Glaser
Commented on EPA process. 1) Did not consider societal benefits from fossil fuels. Health has not deteriorated, the opposite. 2) EPA had already decided on finding before comments. 3) EPA relied almost entirely on third party assessment, most heavily on IPCC. Failure to do own assessment is violation of US guidelines. EPA did not examine IQA of IPCC sources. Climategate showed that EPA should have permitted comment on EPA reliance on EPA. Written testimony contrasts EPA procedure on GHG with other policy cases.

Emanuel
19th century history. Arrhenius’ sensitivity estimate 5-6 deg C. Scientific basis is “solid”. Attribution of last half temperature increase to CO2 is solid. Many academies have issued warnings. DOD issued warning. Scientists are conservative and underestimate risks (Fukushima earthquake risk). Assessments of risk are uncertain. Uncertainties unlikely to decline in next decade. No basis for confidence that effects benign. Served on Oxburgh panel. Showed “poor judgement” but no evidence of intent to deceive. Mavericks usually wrong (HIV-AIDS). Politicians should not make mascots of mavericks. Used phrase twice. Appeal to forefathers.

Montgomery
Failures of economic analysis. Global phenomenon. Reducing GHG emissions will have a cost. Deeper the costs, the greater the costs. Green job claims are wrong as they ignore job losses elsewhere. Regulations do not help US competitiveness. Costs of policies underestimated and benefits exaggerated. EPA estimates unreliable. Free lunch assumptions. Unilateral action by US will not accomplish anything. Need India and China as well.

QuestionsHall
Glaser gave example of EPA responding to comments in boiler rules. Process flaws in Endangerment are not mere technicalities. Process was undermined. EPA had determined its conduct in advance.

To Montgomery – repercussions of removing coal from generation mix while electricity growth of 21% by 2035. Carbon capture is speculative technology. EPA regs would increase electricity costs by 40-50% in ten years. Will Russia, China, India and others participate?

Johnston
Is temperature rising and greenhouse gas partly to blame? Christy – Muller – GHG by themselves exert warming. The question is one of degree. Is it high end? How do we work with other countries? If it is low end, then time to implement more long term solutions that some people object to. Emanuel – projections range from benign to catastrophic.

Do we have answers now? Muller – No “conspiracy”, but scientists work as advocates and fears that they lose their impartiality. Don’t trust the public enough. Bad effect is that public loses trust. Christy – tests model output and doesn’t match data. Emanuel – some areas show model estimates too conservative. IPCC is not a research organization, but a “communications exercise” between scientists and public.

Sensenbrenner.
Asks about Oxburgh. Five questions.
Did the panel have any written terms of reference?
Public hearings?
Transcript of hearings.
“No, I don’t believe so”.

Scope of panel. Any breach of scientific integrity.
Describes advocacy of Oxburgh. Isn’t that a conflict of interest? Papers we read, interviews we conducted showed great integrity. No sunshine on the process. Didn’t interview critics, no transcript of interviews.

Miller
Something from Armstrong’s website on election forecasting. Offering personal opinions on matters on which he has appeared as a lawyer. Unethical for lawyers to express personal opinion as opposed to client. Is there any area on which his personal opinion differs from opinion of clients? Asks about how much he has been paid. Attorney-client privilege. Odd that Glaser asked to appear. In a court case, multiple parties.

Bartlett
long statement about energy. Montgomery – oil, climate change and fossil fuels different issues. Peak oil a different issue.

McNair??
Asks Christy about openness of IPCC process. Asks Christy about code. Says important that code be available. Asks about “fraudulently” inclusion of data in reports. “biased… overconfident”.

She represents NASA Goddard and NOAA. Needs to invest in climate research.

Harris
Is there evidence for confidence that it will be risky? No.
Difference between forecast and risk assessment – house on fire.

Glaser – Glaser’s point that public health has improved. Good things not taken into consideration.

To Montgomery – Going to borrow money from Chinese to buy German or Chinese windmills. Then increase electricity to place US at competitive disadvantage. Yes.

Intervenor
About letter from Watts about Muller testimony.

Clark
Pain and suffering of decline of market share in autos. Represents Detroit. Concerns not heeded. No jobs in auto plants. Concerned about investment in green technology.

???
Asks Christy about great global cooling scare. From mining district in Minnesota.

Tuned out for a while.

Some closing remarks about Climategate. Emanuel said of hide-the-decline that they should have taken whole proxy out. No intent to deceive anyone. Christy – icon itself based on tree rings as not very good. Muller – had to show your dirty laundry at Berkeley. If you don’t show something , you are most likely to fool yourself. Glaser – Climategate about many things. Hockey stick is about to the public. About large pattern of activity. Review panels – English investigated. Asked EPA to investigate and allow public to comment. None of the review panels operated according to US procedures. No interviews, no dissenting points of view. Review panels were critical of scientists. Surprised that climatologists did not invole disinterested statisticians. Operating in culture of secrecy.

Sensenbrenner just abused Emmanuel. Stated there is no fair way the Oxburgh Commission could be regarded as objective in its analysis given Emmanuel’s prior “advocacy” of the CRU scientists and Oxburgh’s multiple conflicts.

“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.”

“Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

It seems like they successfully set a predicate for a US led investigation of Climategate. The chairman now has expert testimony that (1) the actors involved in the climategate affair might have distorted the US public policy process (ie, climategate is a matter of material interest to, and subject to the jurisdiction of, the subcommittee), and (2) the prior investigations into climategate did not meet US standards for investigations of this type.

David P writes:
“Sensenbrenner just abused Emmanuel. Stated there is no fair way the Oxburgh Commission could be regarded as objective in its analysis given Emmanuel’s prior “advocacy” of the CRU scientists and Oxburgh’s multiple conflicts.”

Your statement gives the reason that Sensenbrenner’s statements are not abusive of Emmanuel. Emmanuel has made himself an advocate of the CRU scientists. That fact disqualifies him to sit in judgement of their work.

In our focus on the science don’t lose sight of Montgomery. He is a top environmental economist and VP of the respected Charles River Associates. He gives the lie to the whole ‘green jobs’ myth. Evidence is that the regions that cut the emissions endure the costs of same, and that jobs lost >> jobs gained. This is all common sense but at the end of the day it is what everyone is worried about.

is it just me or is Watts’s issue with UHI just a little bit dumb? How well do we measure the dese3rts – including Arctic, Antarctic, Sahara, Gobi, Himalayas, most of Asia, Africa and Australia……………not to mention that substance that covers 2/3 of the surface of our planet.

“How well do we measure the dese3rts – including Arctic, Antarctic, Sahara, Gobi, Himalayas, most of Asia, Africa and Australia……………not to mention that substance that covers 2/3 of the surface of our planet”

Good point. A Watts’ work will shed light on this as far as USA station quality issues go, plus UHI and night time biasing.

Maybe that will be a start to getting the answers to your question. Is the well publicised BEST project up to the task?

“is it just me or is Watts’s issue with UHI just a little bit dumb? How well do we measure the dese3rts – including Arctic, Antarctic, Sahara, Gobi, Himalayas, most of Asia, Africa and Australia……………not to mention that substance that covers 2/3 of the surface of our planet.”

—

I thought that Watts UHI project was an example of citizen science at its finest. Unless his results are factored in, how will we know if there is a bias in night time urban heating due to poor instrument siting (and the changes to those sites over time) ?

His question excludes ocean temps and other areas but includes urban areas in which a warming trend has been noticed. How much of that trend is due to UH vs. immediate environmental factors remains a good question. Has it been answered yet? I’m not so sure it has.

If memory serves me correctly, the dismissal by most Climatologists of UHI as a factor rests largely on Chinese data which might not be entirely accurate.

Many thanks to Steve for his amazing and diligent work in Auditing Climate science. Please keep up the great works!