Release Detail

July 15, 1998 - Vallone Is Leader Among Likely Dem Voters,
Quinnipiac College Poll Finds;
But Support For All Candidates Is Soft

New York City Council Speaker Peter Vallone has a 34 - 23 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Betsy
McCaughey Ross among registered Democrats likely to vote in the September 15 Primary for
Governor, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today. Brooklyn District Attorney
Charles Hynes gets 16 percent, followed by former Long Island Assn. President James Larocca
with 5 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

Only 27 percent of likely Democratic voters are "pretty sure" they will stay with the
candidate they named, while 72 percent say they might change their mind.

There is little sign of a gender gap as Vallone leads Ross 37 - 20 percent among men and
32 - 24 percent among women.

"It looks as if regular Democrats prefer their longtime fellow regular, Peter Vallone.
Betsy McCaughey Ross, a recent convert to the Democratic ranks, makes more of an impact in
the general public than on the Democrats measured by Quinnipiac College as likely to come to
the polls September 15," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling
Institute.

"Narrow the list to likely voters -- based on prior voter behavior and intention to vote
this time -- and Vallone takes the lead.

"Still, there's a substantial percentage of likely voters who haven't made up their minds,
enough to change the results if they swing heavily against Vallone," Carroll added.

Vallone's favorability rating is 34 - 8 percent, with 21 percent mixed and 36 percent who
say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"Vallone's image is on the fuzzy side, with many Democrats who don't know much
about him, but it's positive," Carroll said. "More people know Betsy Ross, but her numbers
are on the unfavorable side."

Looking at their own party organization, 40 percent of likely Democratic voters have a
favorable opinion, while 8 percent have an unfavorable opinion; 45 percent have a mixed
opinion and 6 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Looking at the Republican party, 7 percent of likely Democrat voters have a favorable
opinion, while 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion; 30 percent have a mixed opinion and 10
percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"New York Democrats are lukewarm about their own party, with only 40 percent
looking favorably at the organization that gave us Al Smith and Franklin Roosevelt," Carroll
said.

"Only 21 percent of Democrats are `hard core,' with both a favorable opinion of their
own party and an unfavorable opinion of the GOP," Carroll added.

But 72 percent of likely Democratic voters say their party cares about the needs and
problems of people like them, while 23 percent say the party does not care about them.

From July 7 - 13, Quinnipiac College surveyed 487 New York State likely Democratic
voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll,
directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and
Connecticut as a public service and for research.
For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu

1. How much attention have you been paying to this year's campaign for
Governor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

Likely
Voters

A lot 23%

Some 42

Only a little 25

None at all 10

DK/NA -

2. Is your opinion of Brooklyn District Attorney Charles Hynes favorable,
unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

Likely
Voters

Favorable 26%

Unfavorable 8

Mixed 18

Haven't heard enough 48

Refused 1

3. Is your opinion of former Long Island Association President James Larocca
favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?