New Ceasefire Points Toward Frozen Conflict in Ukraine

A ceasefire in the fighting for eastern Ukraine was announced after leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine met in Minsk. But a ceasefire alone may not produce a comprehensive settlement or an enduring peace, warns the author. “That requires resolution of the underlying, and possibly intractable, dispute over the constitutional form of the Ukrainian state.” Russia is shrugging of sanctions and international condemnation. The strategy of intervention, described in Russia as delivering protections for pro-Russian enclaves in bordering states, has been successful in disrupting former Soviet satellite states’ full embrace of European trade or ties with NATO. The ceasefire may end the brutal fighting, and could also chill democratic pursuits and self-determination for nations that are geographically near Russia but which hold higher aspirations than pleasing a bully next door. [Note: contains copyrighted material].