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A really good deal for the Sox. Pena can provide some pop in that lineup and could really get great if he improves his plate discipline. Gives the Sox a power outfield with Ramirez/Crisp/Pena, and a good option for them if/when Manny ends up elsewhere. I was kind of looking forward to seeing Adam Stern play, though. Arroyo is better than nothing in that Reds' rotation. I wonder if this means the Reds are going to keep Austin Kearns for good now. I have to wonder, though...If Adam Dunn was making the transition to being a full-time first baseman, then what are the Reds' options in the outfield now? Griffey, Kearns, and...? Think they'll just keep Dunn in the OF and start Hatteberg at first base until they find a suitable outfielder? It's kinda funny that the Reds have this famous outfield logjam for so long, find a way to fix it and then end up a man short just to acquire Bronson Arroyo.

It seems like consolidating our Wily Mo discussion in one place should be a good idea. I apologize for partially cross-posting, though.

I like this trade for the Red Sox. Arroyo doesn't serve much purpose at this point, and even if Wily Mo won't contribute much right now, his upside is so astronomical that I just love the trade.

I liked Arroyo, sad to see him go rather than guys I dislike (Wells) or could take or leave (Clement), but he had the cheap contract and the youth. I don't think a the GAB will be a good park for him, off the top of my head.

Wily Mo is a fascinating player. He's only 24 and he still has awesome power and he still has barely any ability to cause a baseball to meet a bat. He's built like a very aggressive fire hydrant, and his ZRs have never been good in the outfield, though he doesn't seem to be a disaster (more of a -5/-10 kinda guy, eyeballing it). Should be hella fun and hella frustrating to watch.

What will Wily Mo do? He can platoon with Nixon and I guess he can theoretically back up CF, though that latter doesn't sound like a great idea. He's got amazing upside, in a Sammy Sosa kind of way - just a little more discipline or contact ability could make him a great hitter - but it is hard to see him having the same chance to develop if he's just a part-timer.

Realistically, though, Nixon can be counted on for, what, 300 PA? That's probably a half-season of regular play for Wily Mo.

(As an aside, was anyone else really sad the day they discovered Pena's name was pronounced "Willie Mo" and not "Wile E. Mo"? I was.)

So what of the no-trade assurances the Red Sox made when they were signing Arroyo to the extension? Was that just, "We're not trading you right now, but in a few weeks maybe?" I like this deal for the Red Sox, but I'm disappointed in the front office if they let Arroyo think that they wouldn't trade him.

As I said in another thread, I'm disappointed in the Sox for 'deceiving' Arroyo, shall we say.

To #5, I think Willy Mo fills several needs. Mohr, JuanGone and Willy Mo can be thrown against the wall to see who sticks, a la 1st base 2003, and Theo remembers that working out pretty well. Plus, as others have said, we have a little Nixon/Manny insurance. And as even more others have pointed out, he is a sort of positional 'prospect,' another lacking spot in the Sox depth chart. This was definately a good deal for the Sox. Pena is controlled through '08, accorinding to SOSH.

So what of the no-trade assurances the Red Sox made when they were signing Arroyo to the extension? Was that just, "We're not trading you right now, but in a few weeks maybe?" I like this deal for the Red Sox, but I'm disappointed in the front office if they let Arroyo think that they wouldn't trade him.

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, there never really were any no-trade assurances made. Even Arroyo has said so - he knew that there was a possibility he would be traded. After all, his name came up in trade rumours all winter long.

So what of the no-trade assurances the Red Sox made when they were signing Arroyo to the extension?

IIRC they said that they weren't shopping him, but couldn't guarantee that nobody would come along and make an offer they couldn't refuse.

While I suppose they could have refused this trade, I certainly can't fault them for making it. I've been saying all along that Arroyo's contract is the kind that you keep, not trade, but I like Pena's "contract" much more, and they fill an organizational depth problem (OF) by trading from their surplus of starters.

What I don't like about this deal:
There is practically an entire roster worth of disgruntled pros spread around the league who feel like the Red Sox are not a management team you can trust. Depending on how the media spins this trade, it could become bullet point #1 for this theory. I think its fair to say at some point this might affect a free-agent signing.

Look at Damon and Varitek. Now, I have no problem with letting Damon go, but from a player's perspective they both came to the team, played their tails off, helped the team win a championship, were positive locker room guys, and earned their paychecks. The mysterious front-office, with very little player communication, annoints Varitek their captain, gives him a generous contract and even breaks their own 'rule' giving him a no-trade clause. Damon? Eh, they stamped his Chinatown bus-ticket to the Bronx.

poor arroyo. the reds are not a good team for him and his flyball tendencies. gonna be fun to see milton, dave williams and arroyo racing to allow 50 bombs. on the other hand, he is more valuable (in mixed league fantasy terms) on the reds with a guaranteed rotation spot and in the NL. maybe worth a $1 flyer in round 7 of our auction tomorrow... :)

Look at Damon and Varitek. Now, I have no problem with letting Damon go, but from a player's perspective they both came to the team, played their tails off, helped the team win a championship, were positive locker room guys, and earned their paychecks.

I disagree here.

There was talk of the great leadership of Cap'n Tek as early as 2001, when people was saying that it was really his injury that killed the team, not Pedro's or Nomar's. I think, whatever the reason, that Varitek has been perceived as a team leader for quite a while. Damon's a fun guy and an idiot.

I think there are people who have a legitimate bone to pick with this front office, but I don't think the treatment of Varitek is a strong example.

Don't like this deal for the Reds. I don't think its good practice to trade potential impact offensive players for a league average pitcher. Sure Arroyo is cheap and relatively young, but I would be shocked if he has an ERA below 4.50 this year. That's just not the same as 35-40 home runs, and now there is a hole in the OF.

(As an aside, was anyone else really sad the day they discovered Pena's name was pronounced "Willie Mo" and not "Wile E. Mo"? I was.)

Yes. I thought that his parents were maybe Looney Tunes fans (or it was a nickname he picked up in the Latino leagues by being an inveterate practical joker or something), but it's rather disillusioning to find out that his name is just "l" challenged...

OK, as a fan of the other team involved in this trade, this sucks. Big fat rocks.

Arroyo is not a front-line pitcher, even for the Reds. His G/F ratio of .85 will certainly cause...problems. The only good thing is if he turns out league average (which, with all of those flyballs, will be tough) he'll be relatively inexpensive.

Plus, they gave up Pena. The guy's only averaged a HR every 16 AB.

Pena's comps through age 23 include Maris, Killebrew, Bobby Bonds, and Willie Horton. Arroyo's comps through age 28? Rodrigo Lopez, Ted Lilly, Brett Tomko, and 7 guys who were out of baseball before turning 34 (3 before turning 31).

He's got amazing upside, in a Sammy Sosa kind of way - just a little more discipline or contact ability could make him a great hitter

Instant Sosa - just add juice.

I guess this gives Ryan Freel an OF job, though Chris Denorfia might take one spot before the year is over. Rich Aurilia should be the 2B, unless the manager thinks stopwatch time back to the dugout is an important performance marker - and gives the job to Womack.

Last year Wily Mo hit .291/.345/.536 vs lefties, so this has the makings of a good platoon. Fantasy value for both him and Nixon drops to zero in mixed leagues.

Arroyo will be pretty bad for the Reds. Where did all the strikeouts go in 2005? 40 fewer K's in 30 more innings. He's a time bomb.

Pena is a fun player to watch. He hits the ball very hard and very far and his leather hi-jinks are totally outrageous. He's pretty fast, but takes super wide turns when running the bases. In '03, when he had no business being in the big leagues, Wily Mo would charge straight in on EVERY fly ball hit at him. Pena's defensive improvement the last few seasons is similar to a 900lb person getting down to 600lbs. He's lost 300 lbs, but is still life threateningly obese.

I'm thrilled that Cincy kept Kearns, but am a little upset that Arroyo is all we got in return. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if this deal opened a spot for someone like Matt Lawton instead of either Hatteberg or Womack or Freel.

During a Sunday night game in August of '03, Pena was patrolling center against the Giants (Jimmy Haynes actually struck Barry Bonds out in the 1st) & there was a group of fans down the LF line who kept holding up a king size sheet with WILY MO!!!! spray painted on it in big, bold red letters. At some point in the game, Pena's patented, "charge every fly ball" philosophy turned a routine fly out to center into a triple. I don't think the Giants batter had made it to 3rd before the fans in LF had another sheet whose headlines blared, WILY WOAH!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't be surprised in Pena doesn't stick in Boston for long. It could just be me, but I think there might be a WAS-BOS deal on the horizon, where Pena gets shipped to DC, and Bowden ships Soriano to Boston. With the WBC over for the DR, Soriano is due back in Nats camp very soon, and there are no indications that he's willing to move to the OF. I don't think Bowden will let the situation fester - he'll try to move Soriano ASAP, and Soriano is probably a better short-term fit for the Sox than Pena.

From the Red Sox side, I'm just not that high on Wily Mo. I've always followed his career since he was an ol' Yankees hand, and I don't think he's ever going to be a good player. He didn't improve last season, and, right now, is a league average hitter with catastrophic defense. Most of the prodigious-power guys who develop into stars have already had a good season (say, hitting 110OPS+ or above) before they turn 24; Wily Mo hasn't. You might get Jesse Barfield out of Willy Mo, but you might also get a no-walks version of Dave Kingman. Obviously, if he can hit .270-280 at the MLB level, that'll probably come with a .330 OBP and .550 SLG, and he'll be a useful part (though not a star, given his position and defense).

Red Sox fans have to hope he takes a Great Leap Foward in his mid-20's and turns into Roger Maris, or starts doing whatever Sammy did.

OTOH, you have the Reds, who just brought another flyball pitcher into a park that kills flyballers. You'd think that teams would be better at exploiting home-park advantages, since they're constant from year to year and can allow you to get value out of a player that's less useful for another team. This is kind of the opposite of that.

I wouldn't be surprised in Pena doesn't stick in Boston for long. It could just be me, but I think there might be a WAS-BOS deal on the horizon, where Pena gets shipped to DC, and Bowden ships Soriano to Boston. With the WBC over for the DR, Soriano is due back in Nats camp very soon, and there are no indications that he's willing to move to the OF. I don't think Bowden will let the situation fester - he'll try to move Soriano ASAP, and Soriano is probably a better short-term fit for the Sox than Pena.

I like the sentiment, but I don't think Soriano would be the guy shipped to Boston.

It'd be much easier to send Vidro to Boston, with Pena and one of the Alexes (Cora or Gonzalez) or perhaps Loretta coming back to Washington.

So after it all washes out (Casey for Hatteberg, 600 Kearns PA, Tony F. Womack), the Reds offense is significantly older and worse, their defense is at best the same, they weakened their bench, and they added 2 more flyball happy pitchers.

All of the sudden, the basement of the division is looking more likely.

He didn't improve last season, and, right now, is a league average hitter with catastrophic defense. Most of the prodigious-power guys who develop into stars have already had a good season (say, hitting 110OPS+ or above) before they turn 24; Wily Mo hasn't.

He had a 121 OPS+ in 2004. The Red Sox also have a ton of OBP-heavy bats/advanced prospects. Their best power prospect is probably Luis Soto who struggled in the SAL at 19 last year. They traded from strength to add cheap power to their system. The Red Sox should also be able to get something more valuable to them than Arroyo for WMP. It's hard not to like this trade for the Red Sox from a baseball perspective. Dealing a guy after he signed a below-market extension has got to look creepy, though.

Wait... all this, and I tune into NESN on my day off, and Arroyo is pitching, and pitching well, for the Red Sox? After he tied the knot with Boston and they cast him off, now he's putting in some charity innings?

--Pena was jerked in and out of the lineup the last several years
--when he caught fire at the end of 2004 his reward in 2005 was playing second fiddle to a fat Austin kearns until Kearns got so bad the Reds demoted him
--Wily Mo is like a lot of power hitters, he needs to play every day to get his mojo
--his defense was ok in 2004 when he was playing every day. In 2005 he lost interest because he was getting the shaft from the Reds mgt.

I'm betting if the Sox stick him in the lineup regularly the dude will explode on the league.

Pena has MEGA power, a cannon for an arm, and is desperate to get a chance.

H3's post brings up another interesting component to this deal, I think.

The Red Sox are unlikely to play Wily Mo every day, I think. They already have a complete lineup. He'll be able to spot in against all LHP, as well as finding time in LF and DH, as well as playing full-time after Nixon's inevitable injury. But, I think H3 is right that the Sox need to get Wily Mo on a regular schedule with significant playing time such that he does not feel "jerked around."

In order to develop, you have to play. It will be on Francona to get Wily Mo at least 300-400 PA, and to communicate with the kid and keep his playing time on a regular schedule such that he's happy and can continue to develop.

This will be much less of a push-button roster than what Tito had in '04 and '05, and it will be interesting to see how he handles it.

I have faith that he'll get those at bats. If Papi, Manny, Nixon(!), or Crisp goes down, he'll get a good number of at bats. He'll get the at-bats for Nixon against lefties. Plus he'll pinch hit sometimes.

I have to say, in my head, the Red Sox just got a whole lot better. Mostly because if Nixon goes down, the drop off is nowhere near replacement level. Manny can take 10 games off and the Sox still have a big power bat in the lineup. At most, it's probably just a one win upgrade if everybody were healthy, but it probably makes the downside of an injury much lower. So the EV wins went up by more than 1 win I think.

Absolutely. Before this deal, if they'd lost any of the big bats for any real length of time, there would be a huge dropoff to whoever was going to replace those ABs. Now, not so much. And Trot will get hurt again; if not, he very likely won't be back next year.

WMP makes the Sox a lot better, even if he doesn't improve one iota.

As much as I enjoyed Arroyo, he's pretty easily replaceable on the mound (presumably Wells and Clement stay now, and Paplebon becomes the swing guy.)

--A good trade for Boston, but... Pena's a terrible defender and K's a ton. He's likely to improve the latter, but he's likely in his prime for fielding. So if he becomes a .280/.330/.550 guy who cannot field, that's not such a good player.

--I think that if there's a trade with the Nats, it's likely going to be a 3-way with NY. That deal makes sense because the Nats need someone who is ready now and the Mets might like Soriano enough to trade Milledge.

--The idea that the Red Sox in some way screwed Arroyo is simply ridiculous. There was NO AGREEMENT ABOUT NOT TRADING HIM. Arroyo himself said this right after the deal was completed. The only thing the Red Sox promised was that there was no deal on the table at the time of the signing. Arroyo's agents even warned him that his contract made him more tradeable, but he signed it anyways. What were the Red Sox supposed to do--refuse to sign Arroyo to a deal because it was too good for them?

I think that if there's a trade with the Nats, it's likely going to be a 3-way with NY. That deal makes sense because the Nats need someone who is ready now and the Mets might like Soriano enough to trade Milledge.

That's not going to happen. The Mets don't like Soriano's D at all second. Hell, I don't think the Mets would trade Milledge for Sorano and Pena. If the Mets do trade Milledge, it's going to be for a starter. I actually think there is a good shot that Milledge will be the starting RF by the end of the season.

FWIW, after putting up good-to-great numbers in high A, AA and the AFL, Milledge is 16-for-47 this Spring, most of which he's compiled while starting games and facing the opposition's ML-caliber pitchers. He's also reportedly flashed good range and a strong arm. Never say never, but I think Mets fans can start to exhale and believe that he's passed through that danger zone in which Mets brass view their prospects only as fungible commodities, useful only as trading chips for older, overpaid, "established" players just past their career peaks. I don't think he's going anywhere. Not for Manny, not for Zito and sure as hell not for Soriano.

--The idea that the Red Sox in some way screwed Arroyo is simply ridiculous. There was NO AGREEMENT ABOUT NOT TRADING HIM. Arroyo himself said this right after the deal was completed. The only thing the Red Sox promised was that there was no deal on the table at the time of the signing. Arroyo's agents even warned him that his contract made him more tradeable, but he signed it anyways. What were the Red Sox supposed to do--refuse to sign Arroyo to a deal because it was too good for them?

Scrolling down and reading this thread, I was going to say the same thing. I am glad he is gone as we don't need him and his taste in music sux.

You guys slay me with your total dismissal of context. The guy was jerked around like saltwater taffy. And aren't the Reds the team that trashed their best player (Dunn) because he strikes out too much? Conveniently forgeting the dude is in the lineup every day cranking out homers and getting on base.

Pena was harrassed by the club for his so-called attitude, the fossil in the radio booth was leading the "Anti-Pena" crowd, and his manager was more impressed by Rich Aurilia's ability to not hit and not field then Pena's potential.

I will ante up that if Pena gets a half-*ssed chance in Boston he will fringgin' rake the paint off the Monster.

It'd be much easier to send Vidro to Boston, with Pena and one of the Alexes (Cora or Gonzalez) or perhaps Loretta coming back to Washington.

Except that Loretta is a better player (and has a far better contract) at this point than broken-down Vidro, thus the Sox almost surely would have no interest at all in this even without sending Pena there.

Honestly, these trades are really getting ridiculous. Does Epstein know some kind of jedi mind trick? Loretta for a backup catcher, Marte for an overpaid poor-fielding average-hitting SS, and now a young OF with star potential for a league-average starter?

Looking at the depth charts provided by mlb.com, there are 8 potential lefty starters in the four AL East teams. In the roughly 75 games against AL East teams, the Red Sox are like to face about 25 lefties. In the other 87 games, assume another 15 platoon starts. If the Sox manage Manny's off days around lefty pitchers, there could be another 15-20 starts for WMP. WMP can make 55-60 starts based soley on his platoon and spelling Manny. There probably could be some more based on injuries and putting Ortiz in the field, as was suggested. I think that, if Francona managed it right, WMP could see starts in 60-70 games with more opportunities pinch hitting. This program could give him the PA's to help him develop as much as his situation allows.

Just from bouncing around the net a bit, this appears to have started on SoSH. I gotta say, I don't like it. The man's name is "Wily Mo". Why would you pass up the opportunity to write "Wily Mo"? It'd be like stubbornly referring to our center fielder only as "C. Crisp."

I'm not a big fan of this trade from the Red Sox side. Talent-wise, I think this is a solid gain for the Sox. But in exchange, they're giving up one of their more loyal players, someone who willingly shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen wherever he was needed. He's been a signature player on this team over the last 3-4 years. He's not a bad pitcher with good stuff and excellent control - I wouldn't count him out in developing into a very good starter. And in trading someone who clearly expressed a strong desire to remain with the Red Sox for the long haul, I'm worried that this sends the wrong message to the other players.

He's been a signature player on this team over the last 3-4 years. He's not a bad pitcher with good stuff and excellent control - I wouldn't count him out in developing into a very good starter.

I did like watching Arroyo pitch as all his pitches moved and he changed arm angles. Don't get too excited about him though. He is bad against lefties and his K rate declined over the last year, as has been pointed out (about 40 fewer K's in 30 more innings). His is 29 and likely at or past his peak. There is little chance for his development at this stage.

Just thought of something good about this deal: I realized a couple days ago that, with Erstad moving back to the outfield, the HACKING MASS crop at first base was shockingly weak. I was weighing the relative merits of Adam LaRoche vs. Travis Lee, wondering how much Justin Morneau would rebound or whether Doug Mientkiewicz would get enough playing time. But now that Hatteberg apparently has a starting job again, the problem's solved.

C'mon dude. He's been in the booth for a century. He's the company mouthpiece. I seriously doubt what he's preachin' isn't what the suits are thinking or saying behind the scenes.

What I know about the Reds comes from my cuz or links on this site. And I know the relation was driven to distraction by the lovefest for Casey, Randa, and Aurilia while the actual talent like Dunn and Pena got friggin' ripped if their left shoe were untied.

Pena's value was ready to rock in 2005 and the Reds decided that the fat hickster deserved a starting spot.

Cincy had something of market value, messed up the product, and now they have to pawn it off at 50 cents on the dollar.

There's certainly truth in all that, OnWI. But Brenneman has essentially free reign; he's often ripped the team and the product it puts on the field, which I doubt has been the company rhetoric. Several Reds managements have come and gone since he was saying the same things about Reggie Sanders and Kevin Mitchell, and before that probably Kal Daniels and Nick Essasky, though I wasn't there to hear it. (How he got to be an 'icon' when much nicer people like Ross Porter get kicked to the curb is a great mystery.) In any case, baseball-men disliking sluggers who strike out a lot in favor of little white guys who get their uniforms dirty and don't strike out is nothing new. I'd say that at least half of big-league team managements feel that way, not the least reason being that teams comprised of the latter instead of the former are cheaper; if you can pimp that to the fans, and convince them they'd rather have a bunch of Ryan Freels, who 'know how lucky they are to be making millions to play a game' than 'whiny,' 'selfish,' (and, not coincidently, quite often black or Latino) sluggers, it'll justify a lower payroll, or at least make it possible to survive with one.

Just from bouncing around the net a bit, this appears to have started on SoSH. I gotta say, I don't like it. The man's name is "Wily Mo". Why would you pass up the opportunity to write "Wily Mo"? It'd be like stubbornly referring to our center fielder only as "C. Crisp."

As an Indians fan, I'm a bit bewildered -- wouldn't the Tribe or any other team that could play Pena full-time be willing to give up more than the Sox for him? I know the Sox need depth and a right fielder for next year, but Cleveland needs a Blake upgrade THIS year.

As a Wily Mo fantasy owner, I am double-plus unpleased. Oh, the power I could have had with Pena starting full-time at GAB. I might have to ignore the fact that I like Dunn and Freel and declare the Reds to be my nemesis for screwing me like this. Take that, you dirty Reds.

There's something about this deal that bothers me. I can't put my finger on it...

I think part of the problem is that--as sometimes happens when evaluating a trade b/t two teams--fans talk up the player that their team has received and talk down the player that their team has given up. That's certainly true in this case, more so from one side than from the other.

The other thing that bothers me could be that some fans view players only as commodities. Arroyo was loyal to the Red Sox organization. That's been covered on this thread already.

Objectively speaking, Boston has gotten the better end of this deal.

Cincy had something of market value, messed up the product, and now they have to pawn it off at <u>50 cents on the dollar</u>.

OnWI: BP used that exact phrase after KW traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, et al. Then again, Milwaukee objectively won on that trade, too.

Maybe what bothers me most is that Cincy carried that logjam of outfielders for a couple of years when they should have just traded one and let the rest play everyday. And when Pena finally has the chance to pile up 600+ at bats and develop, they trade him into a backup role. I don't think this trade is the best thing for Pena's development, all those who believe he'll pull a "David Ortiz" and miraculously develop in Boston aside.

Query: Does Boston have a history of taking undeveloped hitting talent from other teams and developing it? They did it with Ortiz. They might do it with Stern. Mueller might count. Certain organizations just do these things with different facets of the game. Does Boston improve hitters?

I can't see this being a good trade unless Pena plays everyday. If the BoSox trade either Manny, their RF, or train Pena to play 1B, then I'm behind this 100%. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense--you take a hit for trading a loyal ballplayer and get...what? A platoon partner? A 24 yo backup?