Karnataka Elections – The Bigger Picture

Before we start - Just look at Siddharamaya in this picture. He is exhibiting the expression that is reserved for the father of that girl who introduces her boyfriend with shoulder length hair and tattoos at all inappropriate places. Isn't it that a picture depicts 1000 words?This Karnataka election should be remembered for many
reasons. It could easily be one of the most interesting elections that I have
witnessed in my life. I initially thought of terming it ‘surprising’ but after
a while I found, there actually isn’t anything much surprising here. Neither
I was surprised a bit when the numbers started pouring in, nor am I surprised
now seeing democracy being reduced to some shameless ‘Resort Politics’. And I
have my reasons why I am not surprised a bit even today. But much on that
later. Most of the psephologists predicted a hung verdict. My own prediction
was around 108 seats for BJP. Hence the results that threw itself up on May 15th
shouldn’t have astounded many, not just me. If one looks at last 30 years’ history
of Karnataka politics, it always had been the case where the incumbent government
was thrown out. So, Congress getting a beating here was more than a predictable
outcome. Even the history was against the Congress party, not just the voters.
I would rather be surprised if any Congressi, in private, would say that he
believed they would make it back to the Vidan Saudha to govern again.

Now you would be wondering why I am not flummoxed looking at
the kind of politics being played by Congress post the results. After all a so
called grand old national party is expected to exhibit at least the minimum
grace in defeat. The party got reduced
from 122 seats to 78; 17 of the serving ministers lost their election,
including the CM from his home town; vote share as well as seats plummeted to
unbelievable low in many key Congress bastions. I mean, there are more than
handful of reasons for Congress to accept the defeat gracefully and sit out in
the opposition. But they are far from doing what is expected of a graceful and
dignified competitor that lost the race. They in fact are busy forming the government by any means, though it looks great lot shameful for a national
party. By supporting JD(S) unconditionally and rendering and reducing itself to
a mere filler and a doorknob, Congress seems to have ditched the bare minimum
grace we still expect from our political parties. This could easily be the lowest point that Congress plummeted in recent times. But I am still not surprised
and as I said, I have reasons to not be surprised. Let’s see what are those.

It is no secret that Congress is almost wiped out from the
political demography. You don’t need ACP Pradyuman’s intellect to realize this.
Nothing can better depict the situation of the Congress party than the image on
the right. As I always say, a desperate situation. Karnataka was the last ‘milch
cow’ and ATM for the party. The situation was so disastrous for Congress that
they simply can’t lose Karnataka. It both has huge political as well as
monetary repercussions. Financially they are almost crippled as state after
state being snatched from them quite unceremoniously. Even their decades long
bastions like the North-East is no more with them. The loss is not only
political, there is lot of corrupt money that goes away with each state. At
this rate, they would not be in a position financially to fight the 2019
general elections with valour. Something must be done. That said, financial
loss is just part of the problem. The bigger problem is the political irrelevance
that would creep in event of a loss in Karnataka. Congress may even lose the
national party tag. Whenever Congress had a direct fight with BJP in last 5-6
years they were literally decimated. Looking at the number of states they have
lost to BJP in last 4 years alone would make the 2019 general elections a
foregone conclusion. They are staring at a humiliating defeat yet again. Only
hope that is left for them is to somehow bring in regional satraps alongside to
create a combined opposition. Individually even the regional parties are no
match for BJP. Only option, flock together.

To the utter despair of Congress, previous attempts at
forming some kind of united opposition has failed miserably. Secretly funded good
for nothing individuals like Arvind Kejriwal or Raj Thakrey aren’t yielding much
either. Other rogues like Hardik Patel, Kanheiya Kumar and Kishore Mewani
failed too. Congress hoped to sail through Gujarat with help of these rogues
but they couldn’t. All Dalit fracas didn’t stick either. There has to be a
template that can give some semblance of assurance that it would work to some
extent, if not fully; and time is running out. Out of this desperation for
existence Congress could only see JD(S) as a saviour. Without thinking much of
their reputation, they readily agreed to support JD(S) to form the government. No
strings attached. A party that could barely gather 38 seats with 30 of them coming
from one single region of a big state like Karnataka was offered the CM’s seat
and still most in Congress can’t spot the irony in their decision.

They
literally have gone down on their knees and started licking shoes so that they
could remain relevant. Such a shameful situation for a national party to land
itself in. Even calling it an irony appears such an understatement now. Perhaps
the lust for power makes you sell your dignity at the first instance. That
said, there is a long-term hope for Congress in this self-inflicted shame. This
very hope prompted Sonia Gandhi to call H.D Devegowda and beg for help in
exchange of no pre-conditions. And the hope is – this shameful act may just
build a template where other regional parties can be fitted in running up to
2019 general elections. In recent times, we had instances where rabid political
enemies were forced to sallow their respective spit and join hands to remain
relevant. Be it Lalu-Nitish or SP-BSP, it has brought some kind of political
success against BJP. No harm in licking our own spit again and join hands with
another sore enemy like JD(s) if it satisfies our lust for power.

Now let’s see the bigger picture.

How long such an unholy association would survive in case
the combination is called to form the government? If history is any kind of
pointer then all previous support of Congress party to smaller outfits in
forming the governments were, well, in lack of a better word, uninspiring. Be
it Chandrasekhar, IK Gujaral or Devegowda himself, all coalitions were sucked
out of their wind by the Congress party within a years’ time. When it comes to
Congress and their support to smaller parties, it always was the lust for power
of Congress that ruled the decision at the end. They are a serial offender in
pulling down the governments that they themselves supported for power. It is
the arrival of the right time and the plug is pulled. It is all about the
unbelievable greed that Congress never tries to hide. And I don’t see any exception
with the present offer of support they have issued to JD(S). They will drag
this coalition till 2019 elections with a hope that the template would bring
more allies. I won’t be surprised if they would agree to denounce the PM’s seat
to someone else so that they remain in power somehow. There are lots of ifs and
buts here but a realistic dream nonetheless for Congress. Now if this coalition
manages to win the election, which is highly unlikely in many fronts, the
arrangement in Karnataka may survive a little longer. If they manage to lose
then knowing Congress, I don’t see any reason left for them to continue. They
simply would pull the plug and call for fresh elections as that would give them
a glimmer of chance to come back to power in Karnataka. They may lose the state
yet again but worth an attempt nonetheless. Congress simply can’t stay away
from power for long and do nothing sinister. That is not the qualities of the
Congress party that I know. I won’t be surprised if they still would pull the
plug even after they manage to win 2019 with a ‘Khichdi’ coalition. No other
party knows better on how to usurp the power of your own allies and there are
ample examples of the Congress party carrying out midnight coups in lust for
power.

Now let’s guess what would happen if BJP as the single
largest party is invited to form the government. But before that, how would BJP
pass the confidence motion on the floor when they are falling short by 8 MLAs. Only
option left is horse-trading. Honestly, I don’t see any harm in horse-trading
here. When you toss the CM’s seat to an absolute incompetent individual and a loser
with no mandate, just to satisfy your ego and lust, the other party should and must
deploy all possible methods under the sun to spoil your unholy plan. No
morality preaching here please. If it is horse-trading, so be it. Now post the
99th amendment poaching opposition MLAs no more remains that easy. The
best BJP can do here is to ask those bought out MLAs to abstain on the floor
test day thereby reducing the half way mark till the numbers they have. But
will this manipulated majority mark work for five years? Will BJP leave itself
vulnerable in the state by running a potentially minority government through
its entire period? The answer to such queries lies again on the 2019 elections.
If BJP loses then they may not want to lose Karnataka as well. In fact no party
would. They would rather prefer to continue. Now if BJP wins 2019 then it would
become a whole new ball game. The popular wave would be with BJP post 2019. A
right time to get rid of this minority government and call for fresh elections
in the state. This would pamper two purposes. 1st – By riding the
wave of the general elections they would try to cross the magic number of 113
in the state to form a stable government on their own. 2nd – BJP’s
long tern goal is to combine both general and state elections together. By
holding Karnataka elections in 2019 with a fresh mandate, they would ensure
that another major state will come in line with the general elections period.
And I don’t think I may be required to explain how a common election period for
centre and state helps the ruling party at the centre no end. So, in nut shell,
even if BJP manages to form the government they wouldn’t want to continue with
a sword on their head. It is always better to get back to the voters whom voted
for you in the recently concluded election for national duty and seek their
mandate for the state. Of course, it would also depend how well BJP performs in
the Loksabha seats in the state of Karnataka. Any adverse performance, even
though nationally they still are the winner, BJP would prefer to stay away from
seeking fresh mandate in the state.

But, whosoever forms the government, will the people of
Karnataka get what they wished for from their new government? Your guess is as
good as mine. A stop-gap arrangement, that Karnataka has become, for both
national parties, the interest of the incumbent would be to churn the state for
the upcoming general election than serving the people for whom they were
elected. Our politicians are selfish and I don’t expect them to stretch
themselves beyond their interest and comfort zone to think for the populace. That
hasn’t happened in independent India’s history and I don’t see any credible
reason to expect a change.

By-and-large a hung verdict has let Karnatak become a
political pivot to be exploited and abused at the mercy of the politicians,
till at least 2019 elections are over. I feel sorry for the people of Karnataka
but politics never was meant to safeguard the interest of the citizens. Had serving
people been the inherent motto of our politics, we wouldn’t have witnessed
hundreds of Congress and JD(S) MLAs hurled into buses like animals and ferried
to a five-star resort just outside of Bengaluru so that no body poaches them.