The Coaches

Ex-Benetton fly half, Franco Smith joined the Cheetahs in 2014 following six years coaching in Treviso. In Bloemfontein, he has a 42% win record, but there’s a big disparity between home and away. Winning only five games (twice against the Sunwolves, and once each in Port Elizabeth, Newport and Parma) has been the Cheetahs Achilles heal this season. Cardiff’s recent run of form sees Wilson going for seven victories in a row – an unlikely scenario given his team was one from five at the start of the season.

Set Piece

At the scrum, no side has lost fewer strikes against the head than the Cheetahs. This contrasts with Cardiff’s strength at the lineout, where no team has lost fewer lineouts than the Welshmen. Undoubtedly, this is reflected in their approach to tactical kicking, where they feel they can put pressure on opposition lineouts.

Defence

The Cheetahs have the worst home tackle completion ratio amongst any Pro14 team this season (81%), and whilst the gap with other teams is not large, in this facet of play even the smallest weakness can cost victory. Away from home, Cardiff have one of the best completion ratios (88%). The 233 tackles made in Galway back in September, still remains way out in front as the most impressive defensive performance by any team in the Pro14 this season.

Discipline

The South Africans may well feel aggrieved at rate at which they have conceded 12 yellow cards this season. Only Benetton has a lower penalty per card ratio. Discipline is clearly a problem for the home team and they’ve been penalised 200 times this season. Only their compatriots from Port Elizabeth have a (slightly) higher return. Again, there is a marked disparity between penalties at home (81) versus penalties away from home (119). Of the 12 yellow cards, only two have been conceded at home

Prediction

The Welshmen have endured a horrific journey to Bloemfontein which has made a tough task even harder. Playing at altitude will compound the challenge. Even though Cardiff are on an impressive run of victories, it is debatable how many of these have been secured because of sub-standard performances by the opposition, rather than because of excellence from Cardiff. It has been their tenacity and will-to-win that has taken them over the line. However, this game will prove too tough for the visitors, and although they will secure a bonus point, the Cheetahs will run out victors by 29-24.