Monday, September 10, 2012

Doheny Statement On Siena Poll

The reaction from the Doheny camp on the Siena poll is precictable....It's
just a snapshot in time....That is true...and it's also true that Rep. Bill Owens is still under 50%. It's also true Doheny is competitive in the newly added eastern counties.
But.....his numbers in the western counties are dismal and this speaks to the need to make a direct appeal to voters who have gotten to know these two men.

A televised debate at JCC, carried by YNN for starters. So far the only one on one we hear about is a farm forum held on the Vermont border and summarized in print articles.
Mr. Doheny adheres to conventional wisdom that Owens was elected with the lowest percentage of any incumbent and is thus vulnerable....Drive his numbers down just a whisker and he's toast...Do it by linking him to Nancy Pelosi and the President's health plan.
I don't think the President is a factor here, and I think people support enough of the core ideas of Obamacare. Nancy Pelosi is yesterday's boogie woman.
Profligate spending is a good issue. Staving off the ill effects of sequestration on Fort Drum is a good issue. An energetic and hustling Congressman is a pitch.....
Since people vote for who they like, it's also possible people like Mr. Owens more...at least based on what they have seen. Nobody likes not to be liked but it happens all the time in politics.
Mr. Doheny is meeting a ton of people and I am sure the response is good. But it's easy to confuse courtesy with commitment.....The Siena poll is likely fairly accurate...It shows a Congressman unable to get to 50% and a challenger not closing the deal yet.Doheny Statement On Siena Poll | Doheny for Congress

21 comments:

I know that picture of Doheny is old, but it captures what he must be feeling so perfectly. The guy has worked SO hard during this campaign and yet he doesn't seem to be making a dent in what, as you state as well, some consider to be a fairly vulnerable opponent. I think Doheny's mistakes are catching up with him, namely:1. The quickie engagement and wedding all during the heart of the campaign, and nearly everyone at the wedding commented on how heavily weighted the guest list was toward politics (an arena he had only been in for less than three years) - it made the whole union seem artificial, heavy on politics, light on love2. The DC restaurant event (we don't need to beat that dead horse again!)3. The fast (and very stupid) campaign reply to the DC restaurant event4. He traveled all over the district, working his tail off which has defintiely not gone unnoticed and is a huge boon for him, BUT more then one of the visited businesses have commented that they weren't sure of his point in being there. Doheny seemed to evade the push button issues and spent a lot more time and effort on irrelevant small talk.5. He needs to address Medicare directly. Owens is having a field day with that and the longer Doheny's silence the worse it gets for him.6. He often shows up to campaign event alone or he and his wife arrive separately. This is supposed to be the honeymoon phase yet the marriage already seems to mirror that of the Clinton's (purely political and functional). Sometimes he even sends his wife to events to campaign alone. It all seems very sad and forced.

Character/honesty seem to be his biggest problems right now. I actually think most people gave him a pass on the BUIs, although not ideal they happened so long ago. The marriage gossip is killing him though. And I think it will be hard to turn those who disapprove of his behavior no matter what his platform. I am curious where he will take him campaign from here - if he can steal most of the undecided votes or educate some of the people who claim not to have enough information yet he might have a shot, but in most of the other turnaround stories where an elected official emerged victorious from a significant deficit in the polls, the ultimate victors didn't have the character issues Doheny has. It will tough. Doable but very tough.

Mayor, you are spot on. Perhaps you should either run Matt's campaign - perhaps he will listen to you because he doesn't listen to anyone else. Or, perhaps you wait and run for Congress against Owens in 2 years. Oh wait, Patty is planning the same thing.

I'm told by friends in the know that Matt huddled with his top brass hours before the poll came out. Worse case scenario was that they thought they were down by 4-5 points, certainly no double digits. Matt is now locked up on one of his islands trying to figure out how to right this ship. Time to shake things up with your staff, Matt. Freeland is a joke everyone knows he was not your first or second choice.

Mister mayor, you let your own preferences sway your strategic opinions too much. Election strategy is not a chess game it is a tic tac toe game. If you go first and go in the middle it gives you the better odds.

3:33- I think the ship has sailed regarding his marriage. If Matt and mary suddenly start appearing everywhere together it will seem just as fake and forced as the engagement and wedding did. He just needs to get his message out as loud as possible and hope people will consider that over his character flaws.

Patty for Congress? Ummm.... Nope, the republican majority in the Senate would never allow her to leave they dont want to spend millions again defending what should be a safe seat. Of course the donkeys only have one Aubertine and he has moved on to a better gig.

So Doheny says" Owens was elected with the lowest percentage of any incumbent and is thus vulnerable."Well to that I say - you know what they call the person who graduates dead last in their class at Medical School? DOCTOR! Owens wins again.

Jude Seymore Doheny's mouthpiece must be running out of material. This poll is a "snapshot in time" and when Doheny was caught in the act in DC with a woman - that photo was "taken out of context." Bet it won't be long before Jude jumps ship.

This poll will impact his ability to fundraise as the race will NOT be seen as competitive, especially given the Republican advantage. Despite his marching band,memorizing the towns,counties or whatever else he studied,getting married,borrowing a dog,throwing footballs,marching with the Mayor, hiring Jude,giving contributions to every Republican,Independent and Conservative Committee in the State,keeping Hoffman out....he still is not polling well..This "top gun" just dropped to the second tier... His negative ads are stale...boilerplate anti-Pelosi/Obama propaganda..

The Sienna poll affirms my view that the Republican Party in NNY bears little resemblance to the harsh, anti-government party it is on the national level. The NNY party I knew in my youth believed in personal responsibility and limited government, but that government was needed for the things the private sector couldn't do, and it needed to be funded and run properly. Those who thought that way were called moderate or "Rockefeller" Republicans. I suspect many registered Republicans in NNY still hold these political views in which case Bill Owens is closer to their beliefs than Matt Doheny. I also think many NNY Republicans are registered in opposition to the political clout of downstate Democrats in Albany, not because of national issues.

I highly doubt Rockefeller would be in favor of deficit spending to the level it has reached today. The republicans are responsible for at least 10 percent of the debt so to call them Harsh is pretty ignorant.