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Column: Alabama will get it done back-to-back

Alabama head coach Nick Saban answers questions at the College Football Playoff National Championship Game coaches press conference in Tampa, Fla. on Sunday January 8, 2017.(Photo: Mickey Welsh / Advertiser)Buy Photo

In this week’s edition of Sports Illustrated, a preview article of the big game between Alabama and Clemson, opened with the following statement “after twelve months, 14 weeks of action, and 41 bowl games, the College Football Playoff will take us right back to where we were at the start of 2016 – Alabama vs. Clemson and that should be awesome!

“How accurate is that statement?

Man, it has been a great 2016 football season for the Crimson Tide.

They are 14-0, won the SEC championship for the third straight season, and are poised to win back-to-back national championships on Monday night against the Clemson Tigers.

It’s the first ever No.1 vs No. 2 title rematch in college football history, and the Tide has a chance to win 15 games for the first time as well.

The Wall Street Journal said last Friday: “We have reached a point in the college football season when the entire sports pauses to contemplate what seems to be the same exact question every single year. Can anyone slay Alabama?

ESPN analyst/announcer Kirk Herbstreit said: “Alabama is the bar, I don’t know what stops Alabama. To me, they are like the Patriots, they go to the Super Bowl, or they are a play or two away from going to the Super Bowl. That’s who Alabama is.”

In a recent glowing New York Times’ article they noted that “whenever Alabama’s top ranked football team on the field, a special scout slides down the sidelines, away from the bulk of the Crimson Tide’s sizable coaching staff, for a better view of the opponent’s defense.

He studies every move, looking for valuable intelligence he can feed back to the offensive coaches. That scout’s name is Nick Saban.

He is better known as Alabama’s coach, and winner of five national championships. It worked against the Washington in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal as Alabama rushed for 269 yards which was twice the average the Huskies allowed.”

And yes, it has been a busy run for me since Alabama waxed the Auburn Tigers the last weekend in November.

Nothing is more important to Tide fans than that accomplishment!

It has been off to Atlanta twice for the SEC Championship Game and last weekend against the Pac-12 champs. Now it’s off to Tampa.

My posse is leaving around noon today on a quick charter flight which takes about an hour and a half, and then we will begin pregame preparations for the game, all planned by international world traveler, Barrie Harmon.

My special joy will be going with my son, Spears, as there is nothing that bonds quite like a back-to-back championship victories.

The rematch with Clemson has all the pundits waging their tongues with endless narratives about this scenario and that, offering loads of free analysis on team stats, tendencies, position breakdowns, and schemes of every type.

A good example is a report concerning the tale-of-the-tape between the teams which included such innocuous categories as rushing explosiveness, short-yardage rushing, run stuffs, standard down sack rate and passing down sack rate.

These just touch the surface of the mind-boggling stats available via SportsSource Analytics for the football fan in your like who really doesn’t have a life. I have always believed that statistics are for losers but then again maybe there is some method in all the madness.

A whole lot of attention has focused on each team’s strength of schedule this season. Alabama ranks No. 3 in Sports Reference’s strength of schedule with Clemson No. 17, Massey ranks Alabama No.1 and Clemson No. 7, Saragin say the Tide is No. 2 and Clemson No.10, and so on.

I think Alabama’s Strength of Schedule stacks up favorably against Clemson especially in light of this seasons bowl results.

Alabama blew out Southern Cal by 46 points, which won the Rose Bowl beating Big Ten Champs, Penn State, and should finish ranked higher than Washington in final polling.

The 38-point blowout of No. 17 Florida in the SEC championship game that went on to beat Iowa by 27.

The 39-point blowout of Tennessee who were ranked No. 21 and whipped Nebraska by 14.

The 28-point blowout of Western Kentucky (I told you they were good!) which won the Conference USA and finished 11-3.

Of course, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Yep, Auburn all lost their Bowl games but the Tide’s schedule held up at 6-4 with several convincing wins. Compare that to say, Michigan which went 2-7.

Now add the win over Washington, and the Tide has beaten nearly a third of the top 18 ranked teams in the country.

So how much confidence does one put in statistics and strength of schedule? Not much in my opinion.

Let’s just say Alabama and Clemson are both very good football teams and each has certain advantages over the other.

If one ranks the following four categories: rushing, passing, passing efficiency, scoring, then Alabama’s offense ranks 31st nationally and Clemson’s defense ranks eighth.

Conversely, Alabama’s defense is ranked No. 1 and Clemson’s offense is ranked No. 12. For the year, Alabama is 9-0 against top 25 teams and Clemson is 4-0, so the Tide has played over twice as many quality teams.

The conclusion of all these stats? Both teams have proved themselves elite, but only one can be the champion. Will Alabama secure its second straight crown or will Clemson exact revenge for last year’s loss? Who knows? It baffles science.

For what it’s worth, The Wall Street Journal article went on to say “Alabama has the highest ELO rating, an advanced metric that takes into account factors such as margin of victory and the caliber of opponents, since the Associated Press began ranking teams back in 1936, and that rating was before the victory against #4 Washington.”

Its conclusion was college football in increasingly the story of Alabama and the other 127 teams. Alabama 37, Clemson 24 (in a game that will not be as close as the score).

And, it gets even better, I predict next season’s Crimson Tide will be the most talented we have ever seen under Saban.