US Gain Report: Algeria’s cereal harvest expectations

With the cereal harvest nearing completion, most indications are that Algeria’s wheat and barley production will be ‘as good’ if not ‘better’ than last year’s crops.

While the Ministry first forecast for total grain production is not expected for several weeks, most observers believe that ample spring rainfall more than compensated for dry fall planting weather and that moderate spring and summer temperatures generally aided production, especially in western grain areas. However, production is expected to be ‘below normal’ in eastern areas, which were drier. As a result, post estimates remain unchanged pending the Ministry’s forecast.

Despite beneficial weather and efforts to reduce losses, Algeria’s MY 13/14 imports are expected to be on par with the previous year’s imports and post’s estimates are left unchanged. Preliminary data indicates that total wheat imports Jan-May 2013 (i.e., MY 12/13) are about on par with the corresponding period from the previous year.

Sources expect Algeria (OAIC) to begin to take advantage of new crop prices and to import sizeable quantities to cover needs through the end of CY 2013 or beyond and to replenish and/or build stocks.