Monday, March 27, 2017

Monday Quickie - One Week (sans Barenaked Ladies)

We've gotten to the point where only serious contenders (or guys they don't want to lose) are left with the team. In theory the bench is down to MAT, Difo and Robinson, but I'll be shocked if it isn't MAT that comes out of this. Part of it is the hot Spring, part of it is Dusty-love, part of it is the fact the Nats don't have a decent late inning D replacement for Werth. Difo fills a lot of the same skill set as MAT as a bench player so it's not impossible that he steps in but I see more use from a 5th OF than a 2nd MI. Turner and Rendon don't need to go out for D, and on the rare chance you take Murphy out for that Drew is more than fine.

Another reason - I guess MAT can slip into that OF rotation but the IF one seems old and full of non-prospects. Difo in AAA would get all the at bats he needs.

Robinson? He brings nothing to the table the Nats don't have. It's time to say goodbye.

As for the bullpen Nathan (who had pitched meh) and Albers (who have pitched well) were both sent packing. We seem to be just playing out the string here as the Nats don't have much wiggle room with the arms. Chance to lose Enny Romero? No won't do that. Stick Glover in AAA as closer? Maybe I guess. If they do do that, and I don't think they will, that means Jeremy Guthrie stays. Maybe it makes sense, going with a long reliever this early in the year and while Scherzer, Strasburg and Ross all prove that they are 100% ready for major league action. (Vance Worley is here but has to be just for filling in innings, prepared to take a bus to Syracuse to provide organizational innings.) Still again - I think they love Glover, think he's ready, and I'd honestly take a AAA assignment for him as potentially service time manipulation.

I'm sorry to see Albers go. Originally I said pass bc I wasn't sure that the 2015 "epiphany" would continue, but seeing his performance in the Spring, it's certainly worth a minor league trial or a major league stint at this point. The Nats though really don't have the room so it's not like I blame them. Letting a decent gamble go bc you have better ones (and you owe Oliver Perez $$$) is where you want to be.

Strasburg is the OD starter to the surprise of no one. It looks likely that Scherzer will likely start on the 6th at home versus the Marlins. That means he won't "slot in" in the #1 role, but we all know that's a meaningless distinction and the Nats have several chances to bump a Gio or Ross from a cycle to move Scherzer up if they'd like.

For those needing a shot of optimism after the pessimism of Friday's post, just remember if Bryce is BRYCE that's a huge plus and there's no reason that can't happen. Bryce is young, his historic year was just two seasons ago, and he's looked very good in Spring. Bryce is just one player so instead of looking for 2-3 things out of Friday going wrong to hurt the Nats you only need this one thing to happen.

13 comments:

Ole PBN
said...

I personally like Romero on the MLB roster, but if want him there, that means someone gets the boot. If its not Perez because we owe him $$, then its Solis, right? Not sure how many options he has left. I foresee the bullpen lining up like this: Glover, Kelley, Treinen, Romero, Perez, Blanton, Guthrie (long man). Worely is filler AAA innings, Cole is garbage. Voth has earned a spot start if an injury arises.

I can understand the desire for Glover (cheap, flashes of brilliance, supposed "grit" that Storen never fully had), but he's still an unknown in my opinion and if they really wanted him to get experience against big leaguers, they should've started him for a single inning at the beginning of a few games. Not quite the same as a relief appearance, but way more realistic than pitching in the 9th against a bunch of AA bats.

But, I recognize that the 9th isn't necessarily the highest leverage situation so giving Dusty some flexibility in when to use Kelley is fine by me

Bryce certainly has the look of 2015 and April 2016 BRYCE. Seems to be hitting with power we didn't see after April last year. Maybe he really was gutting it out. I'll knock on some wood, just in case.

I think Gio is a fine #5 guy, considering most teams have a 5.00 ERA guy eating innings every 5 days in that slot, or a rookie trying to make the Show. If Ross and Stras are good to go, and it looks like Max is ready to go too, I think the guys are going to head north in a good place.

If Murphy hits .300+ like he's been able to do, and Eaton slots in someplace, and Trea avoids the slump, the offense's biggest problems might be Zimm and Werth. And if Werth is a patient .250 hitter all year, I'd take it. I would love to see Zimm have a bounce-back year. Nobody deserves it more on this team.

Harper thank you for the optimism! I mean I truly do enjoy your brutal truth sometimes. It keeps me seated in reality with a superstar team. I think a long man is a truly good call as we all saw Gio being "crumbling Gio" this Sunday. If he lets a run on in the 2nd inning Dusty should be getting someone up in the pen because we all know he is going to be serving meatballs (exclude May 16' and June 16') but c'mon we all know Gio by now. A quick aside, it sounds like Giolito is really coming undone on the south side of things. If Eaton is batting over .275 and Lito has an ERA of 4.00 plus do we call Rizzo a GM wizard?....

I don't think we call Rizzo a "GM wizard" until a couple years of results on the Eaton/Lito/Lopez trade. But as I've said time and time again, I believe Lito is all smoke and mirrors. This article says it well:

Its all mechanical with this kid - and if he fixes it, then he has a chance. But thats easier said than done. A couple highlights from the article:

"He's very upright and doesn't get into his lower half," one scout said. "He comes straight up with knee, and his lead leg kind of swings like a gate. It opens up his front side early, and hitters can see him so long, it's almost like he's throwing out of a movie screen. He has less extension, and it prevents him from reaching out front and driving his hand and the baseball to a specific spot in the strike zone," the scout continued. "It's like he's throwing at the strike zone rather than to a specific spot. And his reach with his front side is more like a fall and a jarring stomp that makes the release point float around a little bit."

Plain as day from my POV, glad it is for this writer and, even more happy that someone in Rizzo's ear saw the same stuff to pull the trigger and ship him out.

All - there seems to be a Guthrie/Glover/Solis question floating around. If they move Guthrie could they lose him? Do you move down Solis or move Glover down and get him closing experience? If you keep Glover does Guthrie make more or less sense in bullpen?

Ole PBN / etc - Rizzo has a way of working a GM that REALLY wants something for a good deal. The Rays wanted Souza. the Twins wanted Capps. This is more a White Sox getting vbalue back so he didn't have that leverage and it ended up being a fair trade, maybe even slightly toward the White Sox. (Lopez nearly earned a spot in the White Sox rotation) He gave up three good prospects (Giolito downgraded from can't miss to great to good) for their levels.