Welcome to the Halfworld, that boundary between the Inside and the Outside. It touches our world at every point, but it doesn't really exist. If you step through, be aware you may be trapped here, in a timeless shadowland where you can see both sides but not interact.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Consequences of a new Technology

We don't often think about what would happen if, but as a writer I think about weird stuff all the time. Quite often it ends up in stories (of the "Be nice to me or I'll kill you in my novel" variety) but sometimes it's just fun to run through possibilities.

This week I want to go over the consequences of a new technology. Not just a new variation on old technology, like an iphone or a DVD, but something really new. I can't find the quote now, although I've seen it three times in the last week. Orson Scott Card, I believe, said something along the lines that there are four stages to discovery: 1) It's impossible 2) it might be possible 3) It's obvious 4)I thought of it first.

During the 19th and early 20th centuries people were just discovering electricity and all the marvels attached to it. Many inventions were tried, most of which have vanished into history. A few are still used today. It was a brand new technology, and everyone wanted to jump on the bandwagon. In a very real way, the widespread use of electricity transformed our world.

The fact remains that there's enough power in the atmosphere and the gravitational force of our planet to power everything we need until the planet literally cools. We just don't know how to use it.

What would happen if someone discovered how to use that power, without recourse to utility companies? Well first of all the utility companies would try to prove the people were stealing from them (which is along the same lines as a city saying people are stealing "their" water by catching what runs off the roof) but that's not the point here.

The assumption here is that it's spread on a wide scale, everyone starts using it at once.

My opinion:

The utility companies would close their doors, resulting in an immediate 10% increase in unemployment
Everyone who had invested in those companies would lose their investment
The stock markets worldwide would plunge, probably 40 to 60%
Governments who rely on the electricity companies (they're notoriously slow at adopting good ideas) would shut down--hospitals, schools, military bases, etc.
Other companies who contracted with the utility companies would lose that business and take a next quarter loss. Many would have to close, resulting in another 5% increase in unemployment
Prices for whatever raw materials allowed the new technology would skyrocket, putting the new technology out of the reach of most people. Those who have not yet adopted the technology would be screaming for the electric companies to come back.
The government would declare the technology dangerous (or subversive) and allow it to be used only by "authorized" and properly equipped contractors.
The utility companies would return, using the technology and selling the free power at a massive markup

So that's my opinion. What do you think? What would be the consequences of a new technology?