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AGUS74 KFWR 081709
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST THU DEC 8 2016
VALID DECEMBER 8 THROUGH DECEMBER 13
...COLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front made its way across Texas yesterday ushering
in the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. The remnant
boundary may again result in a few light showers over deep south
Texas this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, a shortwave
was responsible for some light precipitation of the mixed and
frozen variety in west and central Texas overnight into early
this morning.Precipitation totals over the past 24 hours ranged
from a few hundredths to 0.25 of an inch.
A ridge of high pressure will build and dominate most of the WGRFC
area by Friday leading to relatively dry conditions. A minor upper
air disturbance is forecast to move across Colorado late Friday into
Saturday which may produce some precipitation there. Elsewhere, dry
weather is expected Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures rebound slightly across the WGRFC area for the upcoming
weekend. With the departing high pressure and available moisture,
some light showers are in the forecast for far southeast TX along
the LA border later this weekend. By early next week dry and
seasonable weather returns.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.25 of an inch are forecast for south and
southeast Texas.
For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
of an inch are forecast for southern Colorado.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
of an inch are forecast for southeast Texas along the LA border.
Also, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for
southern Colorado.
The rainfall late last week into the weekend significantly
improved the drought conditions across the eastern sections of
the WGRFC area. In Texas,the area considered to be abnormally
dry is now 18%. Also, 5% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and only 0.65% remains in severe drought. There were no
changes for New Mexico with around 54% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions,with 5% remaining in moderate drought.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
High flows are working their way down the middle and lower Guadalupe
River. The Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) has now crested
and will begin falling today. The Guadalupe River near Bloomington
(DUPT2) is now above moderate flood stage and will remain above
moderate flood stage into the weekend.
...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding continues on the lower San Antonio River. The river at
State Highway 72 near Runge (SRRT2) has crested and is now
falling. Near Goliad (GLIT2) the river will crest above moderate
flood stage overnight.
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent rainfall has caused overbank to minor flood levels across
parts of the Neches River basin. All rivers that went above criteria
are now in slow recession.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers are mostly in recession or undergoing minor
additional rise. Heavy rainfall is not anticipated over
the next five days, so renewed rises are not expected.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
AUSTIN-SMITH
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