James Kirkup is The Telegraph's Executive Editor (Politics). He was previously the Telegraph's Political Editor and has worked at Westminster since 2001.

In Brighton, everyone knows Clegg's days are numbered

Here in Brighton, the big question facing the Liberal Democrats is one that no one wants to be seen asking: what happens after the next election?

Some things are fairly widely accepted as inevitable: the party loses several seats, and a leader. If anyone believes Nick Clegg can lead his party after 2015, I haven’t met them. Nor have I met anyone who believes that the party can make electoral gains, though quite a few people argue – relatively persuasively – that predictions of annihilation are overdone.

But what then? Obviously, if either of the bigger parties gets a Commons majority, the Lib Dems become a small and far from important opposition party, returning to the sort of impotent obscurity that some of its activists rather enjoyed over the years before 2010.

But that’s quite a big “if”. Privately, there are senior Conservatives and senior Labour people who don’t believe their respective parties are going to be in a position to win a majority next time around. Tories doubt their own ability to win back ground lost since 2010, and to counteract the effect of unreformed Commons boundaries. Labour types don’t believe the current polls and doubt Ed Miliband’s ability to persuade voters he can be prime minister. Both fear a messy hung Parliament.

In that mess lies the best hope for the Lib Dems. Their best chance at clinging to political relevance and influence is either another coalition or a confidence-and-supply deal with either of the bigger parties. Does that fact explain the slight absence of venom in Lib Dem attacks on those parties here so far?

On the Tories, the Lib Dem tub-thumping has been relatively restrained, limited to the safe areas of the environment and welfare spending. And there has been almost none of the ad hominem attacks on senior Tories that have marked some Lib Dem gatherings.

On Labour, the yellow attacks have felt slightly more impassioned, especially when talking about Ed Balls. But the Lib Dems haven’t exactly fired all their guns at Mr Miliband’s team.

As Simon Hughes told us last week, Lib Dems need to keep talking to Labour: “I want them to understand that we don’t have horns and tails and we would be quite reasonable partners in a progressive government. If the electorate decided they wanted a government of the centre and the centre-Left, we would play our part in it.”

Likewise Mr Clegg, who fired a few potshots at Labour over its record in office, but hastened to add that he is actually on good terms with the Opposition:

"Over the last few weeks I have had lengthy conversations with Ed Miliband, David Miliband, Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, grown up politicians. Talking about other things, talking about Europe, political reform. Talking about things which politicians always will continue to talk about."

Indeed. If there’s one thing politicians will always talk about, it’s power. How to get it, how to keep it. Whatever the noises you hear from Brighton this week about Lib Dems being angry at the Tories, Lib Dems being angry at Labour, don’t doubt for a second that if there’s a chance for the party to wield power after the next election, senior Lib Dems will try to seize it.

Yet here’s one final hypothetical to consider. This remains a democratic party, whose members get a say on its big decisions. Not all of them have enjoyed the compromises of coalition: in a Q&A with members on Sunday, Mr Clegg was bluntly told many members will never forgive him over tuition fees, no matter how nicely he says sorry. Will card-carrying Lib Dems members swallow another deal after the next election? They’re an ever smaller group, but their opinions could yet be awfully important.