View full sizeOhio Gov. John Kasich, left, has the upper-hand in upcoming state budget negotiations, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. But don't etch his re-election in stone. Meanwhile Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, right, still has name-recognition challenges, but he shouldn't panic.The Plain Dealer

A Republican whose approval rating was stuck below 50 percent -- often below 40 percent -- for most of his first two years in office will gladly accept a 53 percent rating as he sells a budget plan and gears up for a re-election campaign.

But as with all polls, the top line numbers tell but a portion of the story. Here are five quick takeaways:

1. Voters give Kasich the upper-hand in budget negotiations.

The job approval rating for the GOP-controlled General Assembly is under water: 39 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile 45 percent approve of how the governor is handling the budget, compared with 39 percent who don't. This contrast should embolden Kasich as he pitches his bold policy ideas, some of which upset Republicans, others Democrats.

2. Despite improvement, Kasich no slam-dunk for re-election.

In the Quinnipiac poll released in early February 2009, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland led Kasich 56 percent to 26 percent and former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine (who ultimately ran for and won the attorney general's race) 54 percent to 32 percent. Five weeks later, Quinnipiac showed Strickland slipping, but still above 50 percent in a match with Kasich.

Strong as Strickland appeared 21 months from Election Day 2010, he ended up losing by 2 percentage points. And Strickland's early 2009 cushions were significantly more comfortable than the leads Kasich has over four prospective Democratic challengers. Strickland's numbers, of course, worsened as Kasich hammered him over job losses. Unemployment, which began to decline during Strickland's final year in office, has steadily dropped under Kasich.

There are two conflicting notions here: Voters are more open to Kasich's rivals than they were to Kasich this time four years ago. But the economy that helped drive Strickland from office has improved -- a fact that should favor Kasich.

3. Encouragement for Betty Sutton.

The former congresswoman from Copley Township has been telling Democrats that she's seriously considering a run for governor. But, fresh off a tough loss last fall, she hasn't put much face time in on the party dinner circuit.

Today's poll shows her losing to Kasich, 45 percent to 38 percent. That 7-point deficit is the lowest of the three Democrats known to be interested in the race. It also is just a point behind former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray, whose job as head of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington prevents him from politicking.

The poll did not pit the four Democrats against each other in a hypothetical primary, and a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points means the field could be a toss-up.

But Sutton is at least as strong as Cordray without his statewide name-recognition. And without lifting much of a finger, she may be stronger, for the moment, than Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, someone who has been openly auditioning to be the party's nominee next year. More on him in a moment.

There has been debate among party operatives and observers about Sutton's sincerity for 2014. If she were leaning against running, this poll might hearten her and give second thoughts to leaders leaning toward the other two prospects.

4. Not the best news for Tim Ryan.

Ryan's tenure in the U.S. House will be twice as long as Sutton's by the end of 2014. But 72 percent of respondents said they haven't heard enough about the six-term, Youngstown-area congressman, whose interest in running has intensified. For comparison, 69 percent said the same about Sutton -- a tiny gap within the poll's margin of error.

In a match-up with Kasich, Ryan loses by 8 points.

Ryan has been mentioned as a statewide candidate before. If he and Sutton are the battle-tested alternatives to FitzGerald, Democrats might see a higher ceiling for Sutton.

5. No need for FitzGerald to panic.

Yes, he has the lowest name-recognition of the four Democrats included in today's poll. But the 80 percent who haven't heard enough about him is lower than the 84 percent who hadn't when Quinnipiac polled Ohioans in December.

Though he leads the state's largest county, FitzGerald is finishing his first four-year term and lacks the platform Ryan and Sutton have had in Congress. In February 2009, 71 percent of voters surveyed by Quinnipiac hadn't heard enough about Kasich, a former presidential candidate and chairman of the U.S. House Budget Committee, to form an opinion.

Kasich's name-recognition grew as he traveled to Republican Party functions outside his Columbus-area base. This is why FitzGerald has spent so much time on the road the past two months. His name-recognition should increase if he continues to visit other parts of the state and receive news coverage beyond his large hometown media market.

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