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1 Report to the National Council for Educational Excellence Increasing higher education participation amongst disadvantaged young people and schools in poor communities The Sutton Trust, October 2008 (Presented to the NCEE in April 2008)

3 Foreword by Sir Peter Lampl I was delighted when we were asked to conduct this review for the National Council for Educational Excellence, as increasing access to higher education was my motivation for founding the Sutton Trust ten years ago and remains my passion. When I came back to the UK in the mid-nineties having spent most of my working-life abroad, I was genuinely shocked at the lack of opportunities for young people from non-privileged backgrounds. It seemed to me completely unfair not to mention an appalling waste of talent that the chances of a bright young person going on to university were very much dependent on where they lived, which school they attended and their parents background. Being familiar with the summer schools run at US universities, the first thing I did was to fund a summer school at Oxford for non-privileged students in state schools which had rarely or never made applications to the University. The event was a tremendous success, and since then we have established summer schools at a number of universities - which have reached over 10,000 young people - and the government now funds summer schools at the majority of British universities. But because disadvantage starts before young people are born and continues right through to the workplace, it became clear that we should not think of higher education in isolation; rather as one link in an educational chain that begins much earlier. So we also fund projects in the early years, primary and secondary schools and, in addition to summer schools, a range of other university access initiatives, as well as projects to widen access to the professions. Acquiring a higher education qualification is key for social mobility. Research we funded by the London School of Economics found that social mobility or the chances of a young person climbing the social ladder was higher for those born in the Fifties than for those born in the Seventies. A major reason for this, the researchers found, was that the expansion of higher education opportunities had disproportionately benefited the better off, and the inequality gap in terms of university participation had actually widened. Looking at the most recent data, just 10 percent of people from the poorest fifth of families acquired a degree by age 23, compared with 44 percent of those from the richest fifth. While such inequalities exist, it is no wonder that Britain languishes at the bottom of the league table of advanced countries when it comes to social mobility. We have tried to take the broadest possible look at this issue, drawing on our project experience over the last decade, the many research studies we have conducted and commissioned, as well as a wide range of other work from academics and practitioners. The report tackles both the 3

4 thorny problem of getting more young people from less privileged backgrounds in to higher education, as well as how we can widen access to selective courses and institutions, at which these young people are conspicuous by their absence. This report sets out our preliminary recommendations which we will develop further over the next few months, looking particularly at the practicalities and costs of implementing our proposals. More widely, this review prompts questions about what the objective of higher education admissions should be. Should universities be solely concerned with recruiting young people who will go on to get the best degrees? Should diversity in the makeup of the student body be seen as a valid aim in itself? And should higher education also be about adding value, looking to nurture bright disadvantaged young people who have the potential to become leaders in their chosen field? These are difficult and controversial questions, but aside from the concrete ideas in this report perhaps it is also time to consider these more fundamental issues. I would like to thank Professor Steve Smith, the NCEE secretariat and all those who have contributed to this report and shared their views, data and analysis with us. I very much hope this piece of work will make a useful and significant contribution and will help to transform the opportunities available to young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. Peter Lampl Chairman, The Sutton Trust 4

5 Executive summary Key findings Higher education participation The social class gap in university participation narrowed slightly during the last decade but remains stark, and there are also inequalities by school type, area and income. In 2004, just 10 percent of people from the poorest fifth of families acquired a degree by age 23, compared with 44 percent of those from the richest fifth. Attainment The early years are critical as this is where social class and income inequalities emerge. The inequalities continue to widen in school: two thirds of pupils on free school meals who are among the top fifth of performers at age 11 are not among the top fifth of performers at GCSE, and half do not go on to university. Overall, there are at least 60,000 pupils (10 percent of the cohort) who at some point were among the top fifth of performers in school, but who do not enter higher education by age 19. Poorer pupils with A-levels are as likely as others to go on to higher education (although there is a question of to which universities and courses). Getting these young people to A-levels is the major hurdle. Independent school pupils account for a disproportionate number of entries and top grades in the core sciences and modern languages at A-level. Aspirations Seventy percent of year olds say they are likely to go to higher education, but this is not translated into university progression. The main reasons young people cite for not continuing learning post-16 are that they want to start earning, avoid debt, and are frustrated or disillusioned with formal learning. Disadvantaged students particularly are deterred from highly-selective institutions as they are not confident they will get in or, if they do, that they will fit in once there. Poorer students are less likely to get higher education support from their peer groups and families, which are influential in the decision-making process. 5

6 Advice Advice and guidance regarding higher education is too often poor and ill-timed at least half is judged by young people to be inadequate, not objective or unrealistic. Teachers are often not equipped with the expertise or knowledge to offer appropriate and partial advice to their students, particularly with regard to research-led universities. Three fifths of a representative sample of state school teachers thought less that 30 percent of the entry to Oxbridge was from state schools (it is 54 percent), and almost half said they would not encourage their brightest students to apply. Poor standards of advice and guidance have a particularly negative impact on disadvantaged youngsters. There are particular issues around pupils in schools, who find the transition to sixth form and university more difficult than those in schools. Applications and admissions Pupils in non-selective state schools and colleges are less likely to receive support and advice to navigate the increasingly complex and varied university admissions process. Application rates to leading research-led universities are much higher for independent schools than non-selective state schools with similar average A-level results. Pupils in further education colleges are less likely than those in schools with similar average A-level results to apply to leading research universities. Admissions schemes which take into account students backgrounds (sometimes called compact schemes ) are widespread in the university sector, but there is a lack of clarity and consistency in their assumptions and aims. University access work Residential programmes, campus visits and mentoring are amongst the most effective outreach schemes to boost aspirations. Other one-off, less intensive interventions do not have as strong an impact. There is a widespread lack of awareness of the financial support available and the financial benefits of higher education, particularly among less privileged students. There is a disconnect between teachers perceptions of universities entry requirements and the reality. Links between schools and universities are seen as useful, but there is a lack of strategic co-ordination and concerns over sustainability. Universities are not currently required to produce widening participation strategies detailing the full extent of their outreach work. 6

7 Policy considerations Strategic co-ordination Local authorities should produce a higher education progression plan to complement the plans they are developing for provision. Higher education institutions should produce and publish comprehensive strategies for their access and outreach work, building on the information in their Access Agreements. There should be one body in each area to ensure the effective co-ordination and brokerage of university access work. Information, advice and guidance Support and guidance should be targeted early on, particularly at the end of primary school, and sustained into Key Stage 3 (age 11-14) and beyond. Every secondary school should have a lead teacher responsible for higher education information, advice and guidance at every Key Stage (ages 11-14, and 16-18). There should be a duty on schools, colleges and local authorities to ensure provision contains certain key elements: for example, one visit to a university campus and activities involving parents. A specialist network of local advisors should be created to ensure all young people have access to specific expertise, drawing on the resources of universities, colleges, businesses and independent and state schools. Finance The higher education sector should work towards more coherence in bursary provision so that it is easier for pupils, parents and teachers to understand and for clear messages to be communicated. There should be a strong and targeted publicity campaign around the benefits of and routes into higher education. Schools All schools should have an effective gifted and talented programme, which makes links to higher education institutions. Higher education and further education progression rates should be published for all secondary schools and colleges, possibly broken down by institution types or courses. More partnerships should be fostered between high-performing schools (both independent and state) and other schools, building on the model of successful independent-state school partnerships. More support programmes should be developed to ease student transitions from one institution to another, particularly at ages 11 and 16. 7

8 A top-up of the Education Maintenance Allowance should be piloted for pupils taking certain shortage subjects, such as the core sciences. Universities Families of higher education institutions should partner with groups of schools to spread expertise and give pupils a broad perspective of the sector. There should be a further development of individual and substantial links between universities and those schools with the lowest university progression rates. More top-up fee income should be diverted to the most effective outreach schemes, for example summer schools and mentoring schemes, and more activities should reach younger age groups. The move towards a national credit transfer scheme should be encouraged to recognise higher education as a life-long endeavour. There needs to be an open debate to clarify the scope and purposes of admissions schemes which take account of students backgrounds, led by the higher education sector and government. Bearing in mind the context in which they are working, universities should consider whether fewer, larger bursaries targeted at low income students taking shortage subjects would be beneficial. Fair access Outreach and access activities should include specific guidance for students and teachers on negotiating the admissions process for highly-selective universities and courses. There should be as few exceptions (for example, earlier deadlines and additional tests) as possible to the standard admissions process. The sector should work towards more coherence on university admissions tests, and the validity of these - plus their impact on access - should be evaluated. Universities should strive to be as transparent as possible about the entry requirements of courses. The sector should move towards a full system of post-qualification applications (PQA) as soon as possible. 8

9 Introduction The over-arching aim of this interim report is to propose concrete policy recommendations which will lead to a higher proportion of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds entering higher education (HE). The focus is on increasing the numbers of young students, particularly those aged 18 and 19, who enter university-level study, but the report also has a view on the wider issue of lifelong learning for those who may take time out of education before returning at a later date. There are many barriers to entering HE and many groups who are disadvantaged but this report looks principally at inequalities by socio-economic class, income and school type. It considers not only the obstacles to HE progression of any description (widening participation), but also the particular access issues affecting selective institutions and courses (often referred to as fair access ). It has never been more important to ensure we make full use of the talents of all young people and provide pathways into higher education for all of those who can benefit. It is a matter not only of social justice but economic necessity. The Sutton Trust has always believed that it is unfair that some young people stand a significantly lower chance of going to university because of their background, regardless of their talents and abilities. And the Leitch Report made clear that two-fifths of the UK workforce needs higher education-equivalent qualifications by 2020 if we are to remain competitive in the developing global economy. Despite the increase in the supply of graduates over the last few decades, the demand from the labour market remains strong. The premium for graduate level study remains high, at around 160,000 of extra earnings over a lifetime 1, and the evidence shows that those with higher education degrees are also more likely to be happy and healthy and to take an active part in their communities. This is no time to pull back from our efforts to widen participation in higher education. The report begins by outlining the current picture as far as access to higher education is concerned, looking at trends over the last decade and, in the appendix, the patterns in participation since the Second World War. It then goes on to analyse the key factors underlying these patterns, which fall into five main areas: those pertaining to attainment at school; those related to aspirations; issues around information, advice and guidance; factors related to applications and admissions to Higher Education Institutions (HEIs); and finally those to do with access and outreach. Throughout, much of the data we consider is (necessarily) on an individual pupil level, but we also consider school level data where available. 1 This figure is from the 2007 report the economic benefits of a degree published by Universities UK, 9

10 This document is very much an interim report which reviews the evidence in detail and begins to develop some practical ideas for Government, schools, universities and other to take forward. These ideas have been discussed with a wide range of people from senior policymakers to those delivering access work on the ground, but there are many other opinions we want to seek. More work is needed to flesh out the detail of the costs and implementation of these ideas in particular looking at which can be delivered immediately with zero or few cost implications as well as those which will require wider reform. But we hope that this report is nonetheless a valuable, evidence-based contribution to the work of the National Council for Educational Excellence and will help with the development of its own recommendations to government. 10

11 Recent trends in Higher Education participation The proportion of the population entering higher education has grown significantly since the 1940s and 32 percent of year olds now enter university level studies. However, there has also been a widening of the social class participation gap over this period, although there are signs this has narrowed slightly in the last decade. Nonetheless, significant inequalities exist by school type, neighbourhood, social class and income. Forty-three percent of young people from the higher social classes participate in higher education, compared with 19 percent of those from the bottom social classes. And just 10 percent of people from the poorest fifth of families acquired a degree by age 23, compared with 44 percent of those from the richest fifth. One hundred schools (mainly independent and making up less than three percent of all schools and colleges offering post-16 qualifications) accounted for a third of admissions to Oxbridge over the last five years. The principal way to examine the problem of the under-representation of young people from less well off backgrounds in higher education is to consider the percentage of young people in certain groups in the population as a whole who are in university-level study. We can also consider the social makeup of those who apply to and are accepted on higher education courses. This section considers both these measures, and documents how they have changed, mainly over the last ten years. Historical trends A detailed look at the trend in HE participation since the Second World War can be found in Appendix One. However, as the following table shows, the overall picture is that the proportion of the young population entering higher education has increased significantly since the 1940s, from less than two percent to over 30 percent in Over the same period, the proportion of young people from the higher socio-economic groups entering higher education has grown far more than those from the lower groups from 8.4 to 37 percent compared with 1.5 to 10 percent. 11

12 Age participation index by socio-economic group: percentage of young people entering higher education 2 Socio-economic group Professional, intermediate, skilled nonmanual Skilled manual, partly skilled, unskilled Age participation index (UK) The overall Age Participation Index is defined as the number of initial home entrants to higher education aged under 21, expressed as a proportion of the average number of 18 and 19 year olds in the population. The figures for each socio-economic group show the number of entrants aged under 21 in that group as a proportion of the total population of 18 and 19 year olds in that group. Young people in Higher Education For more recent years, we have a richer set of data. The Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) is a measure of the proportion of the population aged between 17 and 30 who are in engaged in part time or full time higher education. The participation rate has increased overall by half a percentage point during the period from 1999/00 to 2006/07, with a noticeable increase in 2005/06 before the introduction of top-up fees, and a subsequent fall to 39.8 percent in 2006/07 3. A similar trend exists for the young participation rate, with 31.6 percent of young people aged between 17 and 20 now in higher education, the vast majority in full time study. Higher Education Initial Participation Rate 1999/ / / / / / / / / /07 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (%) Full time Part time Young participation rate (%) Full time Part time A Government Public Service Agreement target is to increase participation in higher education towards 50 percent of those aged 18 to 30 by 2010 and also make significant progress year-on-year towards fair access and bear down on rates of non-completion. A further separate target is to have 36 percent of working age adults qualified to Level 4 and above by See 4 (2006/07 figures are provisional) 12

13 This increase is reflected in the growing number of UK applications and acceptances tracked through the UCAS system. Over the last decade, the number of applicants to higher education courses has risen by nine percent to over 432,000 in Over the same period, the number of acceptances on HE courses has risen by 14 percent to almost 346,000 in In other words, a student s chances of being accepted on a higher education course have, overall, increased. UCAS applicants and accepted students, All applicants 398, , ,000 All acceptances 303, , ,000 Source: UCAS; All UK domiciled applicants and acceptances, all ages International performance The UK graduation rate for all entrants to first degrees, at 38 percent, is the fourth highest in the European Union, behind Denmark (42 percent), Poland (44 percent) and Finland (48 percent). France and Germany have much lower graduation rates 26 percent and 19 percent respectively but this may be down to the variation in provision and the alternative routes into HE 5. Although wider comparisons are difficult, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has compiled data on the proportion of the population in each country which has attained tertiary education in The UK rate is 30 percent, ahead of the OECD average of 26 percent, but behind countries like Canada (46 percent), Japan (40 percent) and the USA (39 percent) 6. Inequalities in access The social class gap in HE participation, however, remains stark. For example, the proportion of applicants and acceptances tracked through UCAS from the lowest social classes (which make up half the population) was just 33 percent and 32 percent respectively in 2007, and this improved only modestly in the last decade. We also know from other data that the proportion of young people from different social classes going on to higher education varies significantly. According to figures from the former Department for Education and Skills shown on the following chart, in percent of those 5 6 See OECD Education at a Glance 2007, 13

14 from the lowest social classes entered higher education, compared with 41 percent of those from the higher social classes a gap of 18 percentage points. In fact, this gap in participation rates has been steadily growing since the Second World War, although there are signs that it has narrowed slightly since Participation rates in Higher Education, More recent figures (which are not comparable with those above due to changes in the social class categories 9 ) show that in 2004, 43 percent of young people from the higher social classes participated in higher education, compared with 19 percent of those from the bottom social classes a gap of 24 percentage points. Young entrants It is also possible to look at the recent access picture by considering the backgrounds of young students entering first degree courses. The overall picture is one of gradual improvement over the last decade, with an overall increase in the percentage of students drawn from state schools and low participation areas, plus some signs that the proportion of students from the lower social classes is increasing Based on a the revised Age Participation Index UK domiciled undergraduate students under 21 (see definition on page 11) 9 In 2001 the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC) was introduced. See: 14

15 From state schools / colleges (%) National Statistics socio-economic classification 4-7 (%) Low participation neighbourhoods (%) 1998/ * / * / * / * / / / / NB: Starred figures not comparable with later social class measures because of changes in social class classifications. Based on young full time first degree entrants to English universities Source: HESA performance indicators Half the population (excluding those who have never worked or are long-term unemployed) are from the lower social classes 4-7, yet just 29 percent of young students in higher education are from those groups. And low participation areas are home to around one third of all young people, but less than one seventh of the student population. Income data Data from the latest cohort studies 10 shows that the gap in graduation rates between those from the poorest and richest income groups remained the same for those graduating in 1998 and those graduating five years earlier in Lowest 20 Percent of Family Income Middle 60 Percent of Family Income Highest 20 Percent of Family Income Inequality gap Percentage acquiring a degree by age 23 in in in A series of longitudinal cohort studies has been undertaken in the UK, collecting information on a sample of the population born at a given time, and tracking characteristics over a number of years. 15

16 For those graduating in 2002, there was a slight widening of educational inequality in graduation rates compared with those acquiring degrees in the 1990s. The proportion of people acquiring degrees among the poorest income groups dropped from 11 to 10 percent while the proportion acquiring degrees among the richest groups grew by four percentage points, from 40 percent to 44 percent. However, the small samples of people involved means the data would support the conclusion that there has been no change in the gap in graduation rates 11. Inequalities by postcode There are also broad and deep divisions in the chances of a young person going on to higher education according to where he or she happens to live 12. So in some areas fewer than one in 10 young people progress to university, compared with one in two in others. In fact, young people living in the most advantaged 20 percent of areas are five or six times more likely to enter HE than those living in the poorest 20 percent of areas. It is no surprise that the areas of low participation are areas of socio-economic disadvantage too. The gap in participation between the most and least advantaged areas grew slightly in the period , although figures for subsequent years due to be published in 2008 suggest a recent slight narrowing of the gap. University and subject choices These overall participation figures do not tell us about the institution and subject choices that young people are making. It is important that pupils are aware of the diversity within the HE sector. There is for example a great variance in the labour market returns between different universities. A recent longitudinal study found that 38 percent of graduates from a handful of elite universities were earning over 60,000 a year in their thirties, compared with eight percent of those who went to institutions designated universities in And different subjects offer varying returns over a lifetime 14. A medical degree, for example, results in additional net earnings over a working life of 350,000; a history degree results in 90,000 of extra earnings. The Sutton Trust has been monitoring the performance of 13 highly selective universities which came top of an average ranking of the newspaper league tables in As the following table shows, although improvements have been made in the last decade, youngsters from nonprivileged groups remain significantly under-represented at these universities (This analysis is being updated at present) 13 Graduating and gradations within the middle class: the legacy of an elite higher education, Sally Power and Geoff Whitty The universities are: Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Durham, Edinburgh, Imperial College, London School of Economics, Nottingham, Oxford, St Andrews, University College London, Warwick and York. 16

17 Sutton Trust 13 intake 1997/ /2 2002/3 2005/6 % from independent schools % from state schools % from lower social classes 13* 14* % from low participation areas Source HESA; NB Starred figures not comparable with later social class measures According to other Sutton Trust research, 100 elite schools making up just three percent of the 3,700 schools with sixth forms and sixth form colleges and centres in the UK accounted for a sixth of admissions to the 13 Sutton Trust universities and a third of admissions to Oxbridge over the last five years 16. These patterns are confirmed by the representation of students at leading research universities. Government Performance Indicators in 2004/05 for example showed that one in five young degree entrants to Russell Group institutions (20 large leading research universities) were from the four lower class groups compared with almost 30 percent of students in universities as a whole, and one in two of the wider population. It is also the case that students from poorer backgrounds are less likely to access highly-selective courses in HE. Looking at medicine and dentistry courses, for instance, Universities UK found that 44 percent of accepted students in 2004 were from higher managerial and professional classes, but just five percent were from semi-routine occupational backgrounds. For business studies, however, the equivalent figures were 18 percent and 10 percent - a much smaller gap

18 Achievement Social class inequalities in education emerge during the early years, setting future trends. Furthermore, there is a significant leakage of talent during secondary school -- 60,000 pupils (or 10% of the cohort) who at some point were among the top fifth of performers in school do not enter higher education by age 19. But once poorer pupils get A-levels, they are as likely as others to go on to university. Independent school pupils account for a disproportionate number of entries and top grades at A-level in the core sciences and modern languages. This chapter documents the extent to which the social class gap in attainment at school determines the subsequent social class gap in higher education participation. The analysis concerns high performing pupils at different stages of schooling those exhibiting the potential to study at university. The analysis shows, for example, that there are large numbers of high attaining pupils at the end of primary school who lose ground in examinations during later years. If the goal is to increase university participation from state schools, then the priority is to reduce these high attrition rates of high performers. An important emerging message is that pupils who do make it to A-levels in state schools are just as likely as any other to go to university, irrespective of previous exam results earlier on or whether they come from a poor background. In contrast, it is also the case that pupils from independent schools with the same A-level grades as their state school counterparts are more likely to attend selective universities. The analysis is limited by the data available. Much of the analysis compares the outcomes of the minority of children in schools who are eligible for free school meals 18, and the majority who are not. This measure highlights one extremity of the class attainment gap by considering the different outcomes of children from extremely poor backgrounds. Other analyses suggest that attainment gaps also exist for the less poor compared with those pupils from the most prosperous backgrounds. 18 In 2006, 14% of children in English secondary schools qualified for Free School Meals 18

19 Early years While the scope of this review extends to the end of primary school when children are aged 11, it is nonetheless important to set the subsequent attainment and participation trends into context of those trends that occur during the early years 19. Inequalities in the achievement of children from low and high income backgrounds emerge extremely early, well before schooling begins. The most recent evidence for this comes from the results for children born in the years 2000 and 2001 and tracked in the Millennium Cohort Study. By the age of three, children from disadvantaged backgrounds are on average already up to a year behind more privileged children (with degree educated parents) in terms of a school readiness assessment 20. Particularly bright children from poor backgrounds at age two lose significant ground to initially lower attaining middle class children by age five 21. The following graph shows how children from the poorest fifth of households but in the brightest group drop from the 88th percentile on cognitive tests at age three to the 65th percentile at age five. Those from the richest households who are least able at age three move up from the 15th percentile to the 45th percentile by age five. If this trend were to continue, the children from affluent backgrounds would be likely to overtake the brighter but poorer children in test scores by age seven. Evolution of Test Scores by Early Ability and Family Income for children in the Millennium Cohort Study Vocab test percentile Age in months Low abililty, low income Low ability at 3, high income High ability at 3, low income High ability at 3, high income Source: Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility in Britain, published by the Sutton Trust A key finding from a review of widening participation research published by HEFCE in 2006 is the long term determinants predicating HE participation including family background and initial schooling. See: 20 Millennium Cohort Study, Centre for Longitudinal Studies 21 Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility in Britain, Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin, 19

20 These early trends mirror those revealed for children born 30 years ago, with low achieving children from rich backgrounds eventually overtaking high achieving children from poor backgrounds in tests by age six 22. The gap in educational attainment between the top and bottom socio-economic groups at 22 months was already shown to be 13 percentage points. This study also showed that tests at 42 months are strong predictors of future attainment: more than threetimes as many children in the top quarter gained A-level qualifications or above by the age of 26 as those in the bottom quartile. Attainment gaps at school The gap in attainment between children on free school meals and those who are not has been well documented and persists at every stage of school, although there has been minor narrowing of the gap in average results at Key Stage 3 and Key Stage 4 in recent years. The gap is apparent for pupils performing well at various stages of education, as shown by the latest results for At age 16 for example, 21.1 percent of FSM (Free School Meal) pupils achieved five A-Cs at GCSE (including maths and English) compared with 49 percent of non- FSM pupils. It is hardly surprising given the poor attainment of those pupils on free school meals (predominantly in state schools in disadvantaged areas) that very few go onto university 23. Attrition rates A better sense of the leakage of talented pupils that occurs in schools is revealed by considering the numbers and proportions of top performing students at age 11 who perform less well subsequently. These attrition rates are documented by a new study which for the first time also details the subsequent participation rates to higher education for pupils at different stages of the education system 24. The study allows us to consider what numbers and proportions of top performing students are lost at different stages of the education system, and also to what extent gaps in university participation are due to earlier gaps in attainment at school. 22 Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort, Leon Feinstein percent of FSM pupils achieved Level 3 in reading at Key Stage 1 compared with 29 percent of non- FSM pupils. At age 11, 15 percent of FSM pupils achieved Level 5 in Maths at Key Stage 2 compared with 35 percent of non-fsm pupils. 24 These figures are taken from a note produced for the Sutton Trust by Haroon Chowdry, Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden and Anna Vignoles at the Institute of Education and Institute of Fiscal Studies. This is part of a project supported by the Economic and Social Research Council to investigate a linked dataset of individual-level school data and HE data. This covers one cohort of pupils, starting at age 11 and entering HE age-18 in 2004/05. 20

21 The following graph traces the outcomes for one cohort of pupils on free school meals who were among the top fifth of performers at the end of primary school as they progress through the secondary school system. It shows how high the subsequent attrition rates are for these pupils. Two thirds (2,850) of these top performing FSM pupils at age 11 in Key Stage 2 tests are not among the top fifth of top performers taking GCSEs at age 16. And a further half (680) of these pupils who are among top fifth of top performers at 16 do not subsequently go to university at age 18. This equates to a total loss of around 3,000 high performers in this one cohort of pupils who do not enter higher education 25. Attrition rates for FSM pupils among the top fifth of performers at age No. Pupils Top fifth of performers at 11 Top fifth of performers at 16 University entrants at 18 This loss of able pupils from poor backgrounds is dwarfed in absolute numbers however by the attrition rates for the vast majority of previously highest performing pupils who do not qualify for free school meals. The graph overleaf follows the much larger cohort of non-fsm pupils who were among the top fifth of performers at the end of primary school as they progress through the secondary school system. This shows that 42 percent (37,000) of the top fifth of performing pupils at 11 are not among the top fifth of performers at age 16 and 27,000 of these pupils do not go onto HE. A further 35 percent (18,000) of the top fifth of performing pupils at 16 do not go onto university at age 18. This equates to a total loss of over 45,000 students in one cohort who were among the highest academic performers at the end of primary school who do not go on to enter higher education. 25 This takes into account some pupils who are not among the top-performers at age 16 but who still go onto HE. 21

22 Attrition rates for non-fsm pupils among the top fifth of performers at age No. Pupils Top fifth of performers at 11 Top fifth of performers at 16 University entrants at 18 So far these figures consider only the attrition rates of pupils who were among the top fifth of performers at age 11 but we can also consider those who were among the top fifth of performers at age 14 or age 16, but who were not among the top fifth of performers at age 11. Adding up all these pupils, who at some stage of their schooling were among the top fifth of performers, and finding out how many progressed to higher education, provides an overall attrition rate for one cohort of pupils. Using figures generated by Vignoles et al 26, we estimate that there are as many as 60,000 pupils in every year cohort of pupils -- who at age 11, age 14 or age 16 were among the top fifth of performers in school who do not subsequently enter higher education by age 19. Higher education participation The other key (and more positive) message from these analyses is that the class gap in university participation (in terms of pupils on free school meals or not) disappears completely once pupils have attained A-levels. It does not matter if you were eligible for free school meals or not, or indeed what results you achieved earlier on in school, if you get A-levels you are as (highly) likely as any other pupil subsequently to enroll on a degree course. The main problem is getting to A-levels in the first place. This is not to say that everyone who does gain A-level goes onto higher education. The latest figures from the Youth Cohort Survey show that 82 percent of pupils who achieved two grade Es or better at A-level progressed to Higher Education by 19 years of age in 2006/ Paper produced for the Sutton Trust by Anna Vignoles and colleagues at the Institute of Education and Institute of Fiscal Studies. The figures do not take in to account students who enter HE after

23 High achieving pupils We can also consider the attrition rates for highly-able pupils in state schools in comparison with pupils in the independent sector, and the subsequent participation rates in highly selective universities. The figures show high rates of loss of able pupils in the state sector, contrasted with growing numbers of high performers in the independent sector at different stages of the school system. At age 11, there are 30,000 very able pupils who are the top five percent performers in Key Stage 2 tests at age 11, compared with 7,000 similarly classified pupils in independent schools 27. However, by age 16, 20,000 state pupils achieve five A/A* grades at GCSE, compared with 7,500 in independent schools. At age 18, 17,600 state-educated pupils (including those based in sixth form colleges) achieved three A grades in 2006, compared with 9,900 in independent schools. One might argue on the basis of these figures that 12,400 highly-able state school pupils are not -- but should be -- in the three As cohort, while an extra 2,900 independent school pupils have now become part of this group of highest performers. Achieving these top A-level grades will make all the difference in terms of being considered for degree places by highly selective universities such as Oxford and Cambridge. Another way of looking at these patterns is to track numbers for the two sectors at different stages, considering proportions of pupils at age 11, A-level entrants at age 16, pupils achieving at least three As at A-level at age 18, and finally, entrants to Oxford and Cambridge Universities. The share of independent pupils rises from seven percent to 47 percent. 27 These figures come from an analysis by David Jesson, Visiting Professor at the Centre for Performance Evaluation and Resource Management at the University of York. See: 23

24 Proportions of state and independent school pupils from school to Oxbridge , ,000 27,500 6, Percentage of pupils Pupils 1 age 11 2 A-level 3 entrants 4 3 A 5 Grades 6 Oxbridge 7 entrants 8 NB: Maintained sector in blue; independent sector in red. The core sciences and other university subjects It has been well documented that independent school pupils are also disproportionately represented among those attaining A grades at A-level in the core sciences and modern languages as can be seen for the following table for A-level results in Proportion of total A-level entries and A-grades accounted for by independent school pupils Subject % entries % A grades Biological Sciences Chemistry Physics Mathematics French German Spanish Other modern languages

25 Within the state sector however, the attainment gap between pupils in the sciences on free school meals and those who are not appears no different to other subject areas 28. It is likely that those state pupils who do gain A-levels in particular subject areas are just as likely as any other to go onto higher education. Gaps in participation to selective universities The Vignoles analysis also considered whether a class gap in university participation (in terms of pupils on free school meals or not) exists for a particular group of highly selective universities (the Sutton Trust 13 ). Once again the participation gap was found to disappear completely once A- level and other prior attainment of pupils was taken into account. A state school pupil from a very poor background stands the same chances of going to one of these universities as any other pupil if they get the appropriate A-level grades. The big problem is that very few FSM pupils get the A-levels in the first place. This is not the case, however, for those state school pupils competing with their independent school counterparts. A study published by the Sutton Trust in 2004 showed that approximately 3000 state school students each year are not among the 30,000 students who gain admission to the Sutton Trust 13 even though they academically qualified to do so. 29 This missing 3000 is discussed in the next chapter. 28 This is found in review of impact of socio-economic status on participation and attainment in science, a report for the Royal Society

26 Aspirations Young people have high aspirations towards higher education, but these are not always realised. There are variations by social class, with students from poorer backgrounds being less likely to think of higher education as a natural next step, particularly certain selective courses and universities, even when they have high enough exam grades. Attitudes are affected by parents and peer groups, with poorer students less likely to access the personal and social networks that can offer support and advice on university progression. Inequalities in achievement are intertwined with inequalities in aspirations. Having high aspirations can drive attainment the young person with a clear eye on a place at university or a particular career, for instance, may be motivated to work harder to achieve that goal. Similarly, exam grades on their own will not necessarily lead to university or to the most appropriate course and institution choices - if young people do not have a high level of expectation and make ill-informed decisions. A young person s aspirations to university are shaped by those around them family, friends, teachers and other role models, as well as the local environment and the school or college they attend. Recent work from the Higher Education Funding Council has underlined that young people s educational trajectories are a product of a complex interplay of cultural, social and economic factors, linked to learning cultures and identities within their communities 30. This work also highlights the need to avoid deficit beliefs around aspirations that is to say that poorer communities do have ambitions, but these may not be aligned with traditional middle-class perceptions. Young people s aspirations towards higher education An annual MORI survey the Sutton Trust has funded over the last five years shows a high overall level of aspiration towards higher education among year olds in state schools, with 70 percent consistently reporting that they are fairly or very likely to go on to university-level study, and only relatively minor overall differences between year groups 31. This agrees with the widelyheld view that in most cases the aspiration towards HE is developed well before the age of 16, in early secondary school and before. The challenge is to support and build on those aspirations, particularly at critical junctures The intentions of young people cement as they grow older: although the overall proportions of 11 and year olds who say they are likely to go on to HE is roughly the same, the older age group are more likely to report they are very likely to study at university than the younger age group (32% vs 43% in 2007). 26

27 How likely or unlikely are you to go into higher education when you are old enough? % % % % % Very likely Fairly likely Fairly unlikely Very unlikely Not sure either way yet Not stated * 2 Representative sample of year olds in state schools Within these headline figures, however, levels of aspiration differ significantly by background. In the 2007 survey, while 74 percent of young people from two working parent households say they are likely to go into to HE, the same is true of just 60 percent of those from households where no parent works. And a greater proportion of young people from two-working parent households were highly likely of these intentions (26 percent), than those from households where no parents work (15 percent). Reasons for not entering higher education Evidence from those running university outreach schemes highlights that young people s attitudes to higher education are often more likely to change around key transition points from primary into secondary school and from an school in to a school sixth form or college. The main reasons for not going on to HE are rooted in the desire to earn money as soon as possible and to pursue more practical routes, either at age 16 or later: Leading reasons for not going on to HE (five year average) I prefer to do something practical rather than studying from books 47% I want to start earning money as soon as possible 44% I can get a well-paid job without a degree 31% I do not enjoy learning 30% I m not clever enough 28% I won t get good enough exam results to get into a university 28% I do not need a degree to do the job(s) I am considering 27% I don t like the idea of it 22% Source: Sutton Trust MORI Young People s Omnibus 27

28 Interestingly, just over a quarter of respondents said that not having high enough exam grades or not being clever enough was a reason they were unlikely to enter HE. Again, other evidence shows that it is students from manual and unskilled parental backgrounds who are more likely to want to leave education and find employment, partly motivated by frustration with formal education 32. And a survey of teachers views about why able students left school at 16 confirmed that the principal reason was students desire to enter employment, followed by a lack of interest in academic study 33. Some evidence suggests that the former may be a rationalisation of the latter that is to say they turn the negative (a dislike of formal education and a lack of self esteem as far as learning is concerned) into a positive (the desire to get a job). Underlying this reasoning appears to be a lack of awareness of the medium and long term financial benefits of higher education or concerns about immediate financial constraints which mean that students from poorer families feel they can not afford to forgo several years of wages whilst studying in FE/HE. Parents aspirations Parents and carers exert a very strong perhaps the strongest influence on young people s decision-making regarding education not only in terms of whether they decide to stay on in to post-compulsory education and on to university, but, if so, the institutions and courses they choose. A paper on the Aimhigher programme, for example, found that young people were twice as likely to consider HE if their parents wanted them to stay in education; the probability they will do so increases by twelve percentage points with supportive parents 34. Again, however, there are significant differences in parents attitudes by class and income. A survey of parents aspirations for their children commissioned by the Sutton Trust and HM Treasury revealed that those who were highly educated and from higher social groups were considerably more likely to believe that their own children would go on to gain a degree and end up in a graduate level job. 32 For example Biggart et al. (2004),

29 Parental expectations for their children Perhaps unsurprisingly, in the same survey parents from D/E groups were also significantly more likely than A/Bs to describe their time at school as a negative experience 35. Research from HEFCE has made the link between areas of low HE participation amongst young people and low levels of skills and qualifications in the adult population. Although this is beyond the immediate scope of this review, which is looking at young entrants, there is a growing body of opinion which suggests that boosting adult learning and education participation is one of the most effective ways to promote HE progression in the poorest areas 36. The combination of a poor and limited experience of education seems often to lead to a belief that your children are unlikely to go on to university and this inevitably impacts on the aspirations of those children, and whether they see university-level study as a natural next step 37. And research the Institute of Education has undertaken for the Sutton Trust suggests that students from graduate families tend to have always aspired to HE, whereas first generation students who choose a university pathway trace this aim back to secondary school, around the time they were making their GCSE choices 38. Even when parents are supportive, many teachers see them as a major if unwitting obstacle for increasing HE participation amongst students: Parents are becoming my block really We have very supportive parents but generally they don t know what to do. 39 In an increasingly Discussion paper by Tricia Jenkins, Head of Educational Opportunities, University of Liverpool, February Bevins found that parents from poorer neighbourhoods are also less likely to engage their children in discussions about post-compulsory education and career options and to view certain educational trajectories as principally for the better off (from Current perceptions of the impact of socioeconomic status on science participation and attainment a focus group investigation of pupils, teachers and parents, report to Royal Society) 38 University Entry, Institute of Education for Sutton Trust, forthcoming

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