This year’s projected shortfall in winter grain production could lead to a significant increase in grain imports, with the government already reported to have sanctioned the importation of 2.0 million tons of wheat.

… Owing to the severity of current conditions and the breadth of areas impacted, wheat production in 2008/09 is forecast by USDA at 12.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 20 percent from last year. Wheat harvest activities generally occur between May and August, with the rainfed crop being the earliest to mature. Given the continuing development of the drought, and its intensification in recent months, even later maturing winter grain crops are potentially in danger. Seasonal rainfall typically falters after April, so only crops with adequate irrigation reserves will survive to produce near-normal yields this year. Losses to winter grain production are expected to be substantial enough to have serious ramifications in the domestic food and feed grain market during the 2008/09 marketing year.

… Wheat production prospects in the 2008/09 growing season are expected to be the worst since the 1999-2001 period, when total production fell to between 8.0-9.5 million tons. Region-wide drought was prevalent in the Middle East during these years, with Iran’s subsequent wheat import needs rising to record high levels of 6-7 million tons each year.

… In 1999/00 when Iran suffered from extreme drought, total wheat production declined approximately 3.3 million tons or 28 percent from the previous year.

… As long as irrigation reserves are adequate in most provinces, Iran has the capability of producing at least 10.0 million tons of wheat on a regular basis. The expansion of irrigated crop area had the general benefit of providing relative self-sufficiency in grain production, but has not completely insulated the grain economy from significant setbacks during years of extreme weather.

(a) Iran was a regular buyer of US wheat until its last purchase in 1981/82 of 728,000 tonnes.

(b) So far this year, Iran has purchased aprox 1.5 million tonnes of wheat (source).

(c) We do not know much they will buy. “Iran’s government has said it will import 5 million tonnes , while unofficial sources have put the total as high as 9 million tonnes.” (source).

(d) “In addition to 1 million tons of U.S. wheat, Iran is believed to have purchased 1.5 million tons of Canadian wheat, 1.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat and 1 million tons of European wheat, traders said. … The U.S. government prohibits virtually all trade with Iran except for carpets, dried fruit, nuts and caviar. However, there are additional exceptions for humanitarian aid, medicine and food.” (source)

This is the first time since ‘81 – ‘82 that Iran has bought wheat from America. At that time it was under a million tons. This year’s purchase is expected to run 5 million tons.

So what happens when you have to buy food from your enemy to keep going? Obviously bellicosity has to decline. And you pull in your cats paws like Hizballah. No point in upsetting the grain cart when there are no other sellers. Another humiliation for the poor dears. It just points further to the Iranian Government’s mismanagement of the Iranian economy. My guess is that drought is an excuse not a reason.

Investing in missiles and atomic bombs does not feed the hungry. Water projects should be taking priority.

Some thoughts on Simon’s post.

The post’s title is a bit over the top (I should know, with so many like that on this site).

Although the total purchase is expect to be 5 million tonnes, US exports will be only a piece of that.