He’s making a list…

OK, not going to spend long on this tonight I’m afraid, beyond giving you the projections.

RedC, as you’re probably aware (given you follow this blog), have their final poll of 2015. Breakdown of the smaller parties is circulating on Twitter by the usual sources so I’ve run the projections in advance of the hard copy.

Again, in line with previous polls, Govt parties drifting up, and while FG/FF or FG/SF still the only combinations with the numbers, re-election the Govt is moving in the direction of ‘being in play’. Still a long way to go though, and values may go down as well as up… Labour will be hoping however that polling over the last 12 months indicates they will improve in the new year…the 4 polls in December 2014 saw them go from 6% to 5% (6-6-5-5, an average of 5.5%), however they averaged 7.5% in the next 4 polls in January/February (and 8.67% in the 3 polls of March). At 9%/15 seats they are pretty much in the zone they spent most of the last few decades – no Spring Tide/Gilmore Gale, but more perhaps than some may have dared hope for a few months back (a ‘Burton Bump’?). However, nothing is certain in politics, and they could lose this much easier than they won it.

FG will also be pleased, at 32% with a fragmentation of alternatives, it is, surely, impossible to see the next Govt being led by anyone but them, particularly with FF continuing to flounder. Some may hope this increase will build momentum, and see them move towards single party Govt, although that, too, seems unlikely. At the moment, at least…

FF/SF continue to battle it out, I suspect there will be no real daylight between them this side of the campaign proper. Both will be working non-stop on election strategy.

AAAPBP, Greens, SocDems & Renua all in the territory where they will claim their support is either hidden in OTH, DKs or the 3% margin of error. On these figures they are largely transfer fodder, with very few of their seats in what one could call the ‘safe zone’.