How UKIP might save a generation from apathy

Along with the Greens, polls show that the rise of UKIP could see a surge in turnout among the youth vote in this year's general election. For the first time in a while there seems to be genuine 'choice'. This is a good thing.

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Flickr/The Freedom Association

As distasteful as it may be, the emergence of UKIP
as a serious political force has brought waves to the calm of British political
waters. Sure, the Commons benches have still been covered in the enraged
spittle of MPs as they shout insults at each other, but to most on the outside
politicians have been transforming into unidentifiable blobs of grey mush since
1997.

One man who shoulders a hefty part of the blame for
the blandness in recent political history is Tony Blair. He arrived at Downing
Street with the biggest majority since 1935 and many of the electorate seemed
happy to see 18 years of Tory rule come to an end. New Labour were here and
things were going to be different, or so we thought.

Blair moved Labour to the centre of the political
spectrum as he ditched policies such as nationalisation, high tax, and
unilateral disarmament and attempted to make the party more palatable to the
British people. In other words, socialism was out and with that the political
divide between the two major UK parties narrowed significantly.

The race
to the centre

As time went on it became harder and harder to
discern the difference between New Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories
were once the nasty party, but how could that label not be placed on Blair’s
party after taking the country to war despite mass protests and curtailing
civil liberties? The country’s leaders were now populist rather ideological.
The public were not blind to this.

While the trend began long before Tony Blair took
control of the Labour Party, it was while he was leader that we saw
most-common-perception of the difference between the two parties move from ‘a
great deal of difference’ to ‘some difference’. This has continued until ‘not
much difference’ had all but moved into second place in 2001. It’s obvious that
a political landscape is in trouble when people can’t tell the difference
between the two main parties.

And people can be forgiven for struggling to tell
the difference. As recently as 2009 Ed Miliband said that there were areas of
policy where Labour and the Tories were no different. The background of MPs, as
this graph shows, has become more uniform and this gives the appearance of all MPs
being part class of people even if their views differ.

Turnout

It’s worth noting that since the 2001 General
Election voter turnout has been rising, although it’s still far off levels seen
in 1997 and before. So if it’s rising, is there really a problem with voter
apathy at all? Well, turnout is still relatively low, but there’s another issue
at hand which is much more serious than many may realise.

The turnout for 18-24s fluctuated for just under 30
years before a dramatic fall in the mid-90s. This is because young people are
more likely to be turned off by politicians who all seem the same. When they
vote they want to know something drastic happened. This is what the Liberal
Democrats tapped into in the 2005 election and then lost it when they joined the grey mass of Parliament.

While voter turnout across the board is lower than
it was back in the 90s and before, 18-24s are well below the average. So, why
is this such a big deal? Won’t they just start voting as they get older?
Apparently not.

According to the studies cited in this University of Sussex paper, voting is a habit that needs to be formed.
Non-voting has a ‘generational effect’ which means it will continue into old
age. In other words, if you don’t vote when you’re young you’re significantly
less likely to vote in the future, meaning low youth voter turnout now means
lower general voter turnout in the future.

Two other studies in that paper also claim that
when the main parties have fewer differences people are less inclined to vote,
so it’s not just conjecture that politicians are to blame for young people
being less ideological motivated today. In fact, it suggests that campaigns to
get people to vote will do nothing if politicians are all seen as the same.

Are UKIP
good for democracy?

And this brings us to UKIP. They have tapped into
voter apathy brought on by the distrust of politicians with their rhetoric about operating outside of the
Westminster bubble. Nigel Farage, with his pints and straight-talking about
immigration and the EU (compared to mainstream politicians), has convinced many people that his party are different. While his
background is distinctly a Tory one, it doesn’t matter. The public believe him
and the surge in support his party has seen proves it.

If the previously-mentioned studies are to be
believed, then UKIP’s offer of seemingly-new policies and non-cookie cutter
candidates mean voter apathy should be on the wane. It makes sense that the
2015 General Election should see a stronger turnout than the last two, but is
the youth vote being drawn towards the parties offering something different?

That’s a massive transformation in voting patterns,
and the fluctuations show that young people are paying attention and are open
to new political ideologies. The rise of UKIP has shown that smaller parties
can influence politics proper and these graphs show it. This is even after the
Lib Dems angered students by turning their backs on them. It doesn’t matter
that UKIP aren’t aimed at young people, what matters is that Farage has made
them realise voting for something more radical – like the Greens – is a viable
option.

So, with votes now offering more choice we should
see many more young people heading to polling stations. If voting is all about
habit forming, it maybe that UKIP has saved a whole generation from voter
apathy and influenced Britain’s political future – even if they don’t win.

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