HISTORICALLY, MIDTERMS HAVE GOTTEN
LITTLE INTEREST
— NOT THIS YEAR.
Republicans are determined to hold their lock on power.
Democrats are determined to break it.
Independents could go either way.
Progressives want a new agenda.

WHAT WILL VOTERS DO?

“The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.”

THE NEW FACTORS IN 2018

A huge number of new candidates are running for the first time BUT can they win votes?1/3rd of all eligible voters are 18 - 34 years old BUT will they show up?45% of voters did not vote in November 2016 BUT will they vote this election?

FIRST TIME CANDIDATES

A record number of Americans are throwing their hat in the ring and running for office.
What makes them run?

First time candidate Laurie Pohutsky tells us why she's running and what she's learned about voters in the 2018 midterm elections.

However…in 7 of the 8 battleground states in California, more Republican voters turned out than Democrats…in Georgia, Democrat turnout surged but still didn’t beat Republican turnout…same for Texas and other states.Read more:Alternet.org, June 2018

WILD CARDS

This just in...

Republicans are making it harder to vote in Georgia,
North Dakota, Kansas, Missouri, Virginia, and Ohio.
Will the obstacles to vote effect who wins? Read More:Vox.com, October 25, 2018

+ WOMEN VOTERS

"So far across the 41 states that have held their primaries, 41 percent of all Democratic Party nominees &em; and 48 percent of all non-incumbent nominees &em; are women, a level that simply obliterates all previous records."Source:Vox.com, September 5, 2018

+ PROGRESSIVES vs CENTRIST DEMS

Surprise upset or changing landscape? Some voters want unapologetic Progressives in office, like Gillum in Florida and Garcia in Arizona, and polls may not see them coming.
Read More: NewYorker.com, August 2018Read More: Vox.com, August 2018

INDEPENDENTS ARE...“People whose views are too extreme for either of the two mainstream parties…
People (especially younger people) who avoid adopting a party label even as they vote consistently on behalf of one party’s candidates – usually Democrats and most importantly, lower-information cross-pressured voters who agree with some positions in each major party.” Source: Washington Monthly, July 2018

+ VOTERS BY PARTY

About independents Pew Research Center says: “Most independents lean toward one of the major parties; when their partisan leanings are taken into account, 50% of registered voters identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 42% identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP. While the overall balance of leaned party affiliation has not changed much in recent years, this is the first time since 2009 that as many as half of registered voters have affiliated with or leaned toward the Democratic Party.”Read More: Pew Research Center, March 2018

+ RESULTS OF GERRYMANDERING

• Gerrymandering trumps the popular vote.
• Democrats gerrymander too but right now Republicans rule.
• Republicans now hold 22 additional House seats because of gerrymandering.Read More:RollingStone.com, January 2018

SPECIFIC EXAMPLE
Republicans held the U.S. House in 2012, despite earning 1.4 million fewer votes than Democratic congressional candidates, and won large GOP majorities in the Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina state legislatures even when more voters backed Democrats.
Some say that to win the House in the 2018 midterms, Democrats would have to beat Republicans by a margin of 11 points nationally because of gerrymandered maps.Read More:TheHill.com, March 2018

+ CHALLENGING GERRYMANDERING

In the Michigan State House, the NYT reported Republicans maintain a 63-47 advantage,even though a majority of voters picked Democrats in 2016.

But Voters, not Politicians got a new initiative on the ballot
- a proposal for a citizen’s commission with members from all parties that would redraw the maps.
Source:
NYTimes.com, July 2018

Lawsuits challenging gerrymandering in Texas, Wisconsin & North Carolina were rejected in June 2018 by the Supreme Court.Source:
Politico.com, June 2018

VOTER SUPPRESSION

“Since 2008, states across the country have passed measures to make it harder for Americans—particularly black people, the elderly, students, and people with disabilities—to exercise their fundamental right to cast a ballot. These measures include cuts to early voting, voter ID laws, and purges of voter rolls."Source:ACLU.org

"They don't want you to vote. If they did, we wouldn't vote on a Tuesday. In November. You ever throw a party on a Tuesday? No. Because nobody would come."

1 in 10 Wisconsin voters said they could not get a voter ID or were deterred from voting by the requirement… that number equals 23,000 voters and is the number by which Trump won the state.Read More:
RollingStone.com, January 2014

+ MORE ON VOTER SUPPRESSION

USE IT OR LOSE IT
June 2018 - The US Supreme Court ruled that voters who have not voted in 2 years can be notified that they will be kicked off the voter rolls and if they don’t reply they are kicked off without further notice.Source:ACLU.org, June 2018

Voters can only vote in parties they are registered to. BUT 43% of AMERICAN voters are Independents including 50% of Millennials, so Independents, who represent literally millions of voters are shut out.Source:OpenPrimaries.org

FELON DISNFRANCHISEMENT
"6.1 MILLION Americans cannot vote because of a felony conviction.
The United States is the only democracy in the world that regularly bans large numbers of felons from voting after they have discharged their sentences.”
Read More:SentencingProject.org

RESTRICTED EARLY VOTINGEarly voting helps people who may be out of town, cannot get to a poll easily or have to work. In 13 states there is no early voting: NY, PA, VA, NH, CT, RI, DE SC, Al, MS, MO, KY, MI
Read More:NCSL.org

REDUCED VOTING LOCATIONS
In 2016 there were 868 fewer places to cast a ballot. These states closed the following number of polling places - some have a history of voter discrimination.
TEXAS: 403
GEORGIA 214
ARIZONA: 212
LOUISIANA: 103
ALABAMA: 66
MISSOURI: 44
NORTH CAROLINA: 27
SOUTH CAROLINA: 12Read more: TheNation.comRead more:The Atlanta Journal Constitution, August 2018

Everyone votes. The top 2 candidates face off regardless of party.
California just did this. Read more:OpenPrimaries.org/

"A majority of Republicans and Democrats not only believe that the opposing party's policies are wrong, they believe they are harmful..."

45% of Republicans &
41% of Democrats
view the “other” party as a threat to the nation’s well-being.
Source:Pew Research Center

"I'm not as partisan as people think I am."

-- Andrew BreitbartAmerican conservative commentator

TAKE OUR POLL

How do you feel about the "other" party?

Love 'em!

Some are okay I guess

On the fence

Don't really like 'em

I can't stand 'em

+ FEAR & LOATHING

Democrat and Republican views of each other are more negative than they’ve been in 25 years.
They are not just angry at each other - they are afraid.READ MORE:Pew Research Center, June 2016

Both Democrats and Republicans find talking to people who they strongly disagree with stressful and frustrating and a majority view the “other” party’s policies as being harmful…
READ MORE: Pew Research Center, June 2016

WILL THEY VOTE?
Historically, Millennials have a low turnout in midterms elections.Read More: Pew Research Center, June 2018
50% Millennials say they will vote and vote blue in 2018
25% Millennials say they will vote and vote red in 2018
25% Millennials said they were not planning to vote in 2018Read More: NBCNews.com, January 2018

The biggest increase in voter
non-participation were in these groups:
Gen X
African Americans
Hispanics
Asian Americans
Those with a Bachelor degree or more
Naturalized citizensSource:
HuffingtonPost.com, May 2017

WHY DIDN’T THEY VOTE
25% voters didn’t like the candidates or the issues
15% voters said their vote wouldn’t make a difference
15% were not interested
14% too busy, schedule conflicts (Voter suppression could play a role)
12% illness or disability (Voter suppression could play a role)
4% registration problems (Voter suppression could play a role)Source:Pew Research, June 2017Source:HuffingtonPost.com, May 2017