DESPITE independent presidential candidate Ross Perot's high
rankings in several recent polls, many political observers still
believe his chances of winning the White House are slim.

Their analysis is based on history: Despite many attempts, no
third-party or independent candidate has ever won a United States
presidential election.

Third-party candidacies are far from rare in presidential
elections. In almost 1 in 5 elections since George Washington's in
1789, third or even fourth candidates have played roles in
determining the outcome.

The most recent third candidate was John Anderson in 1980, who
was the first significant candidate to run without a party
nomination. Although he garnered 20 percent in national polls at
one point, he received only about 7 percent of the popular vote on
election day, and got no electoral votes.

Other third candidates have been more successful, sometimes even
coming in second. Theodore Roosevelt tried to recapture the White
House on the Progressive Party ticket in 1912. He got 30 percent of
the vote and 88 electoral votes, relegating the incumbent
Republican, William Howard Taft, to third place and handing the
election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

Like Roosevelt, several other third candidates have affected the
outcome of the race. Many observers think that George Wallace, who
in 1968 captured 14 percent of the popular vote and 46 electoral
votes, ensured the defeat of Democrat Hubert Humphrey and gave the
election to Republican Richard Nixon.

A century earlier, in 1860, Southern Democrat John Breckinridge
came in third in the popular vote, with 18 percent, but second in
the electoral vote with 72; while Northern Democrat Stephen Douglas
was second in the popular vote, with 29 percent, but finished
fourth with only 12 electoral votes. (Tennesseean John Bell of the
Constitutional Union Party captured 13 percent of the popular vote
and 39 electoral votes.) The split ensured the election of the
first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, thereby triggering the
Civil War.

The Perot candidacy, however, is like no other. Unlike
Congressman Anderson, who came out of the Republican primaries,
Perot has entered no primaries, sought no party's endorsement, and
says he is prepared to advance $100 million of his own money to
finance his campaign. Both the Bush and Clinton camps are convinced
that even if he does not win, he will markedly affect the campaign,
and are planning accordingly. Whether he will do more damage to
President Bush or Governor Clinton is impossible to know at this
early date.

Based on the current polling figures, however, one real
possibility is that Perot could throw the election into the House
of Representatives. The 12th Amendment to the Constitution provides
that if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the
House elects the president from the top three candidates, with the
delegation of each state having one vote, and a clear majority of
states needed for election. …

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