Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Trend Spotting

Goalkeepers

No one has more quality games (12) than Joe Hart. He does, however, also have 10 bad games. In fact, in 20 of 22 appearances, Hart has scored either 7 or more, or 2 or less points. He is the only keeper to have more quality games than bad games.

Steve Harper has more quality games and clean sheets (3) as Tim Krul, despite playing 8 games less so far this year.

Extrapolated over the full season to date, adjusting for schedule, Craig Gordon would be the second best 'keeper in the league (110 aPoints), after Joe Hart (114).

Having happened just once between GW14 and GW20, four keepers have now recorded back to back quality games in the past two weeks (Hart, Gordon, Fabianksi and Harper).

Defenders

Over the past 5 gameweeks, Seamus Coleman has 27 points and a PPMS of 1.350. Phil Bardsley however is the only man with 3 quality games and has 26 points over the same period. Bardsley also now leads the league in aPoints for defenders with 109.

Over the past four games Ashley Cole has scored 9 points despite having faced Bolton and Villa at home and Wolves on the road. Teammates Ivanovic and Terry have been rescued by each scoring over in those games. Chelsea now have just one clean sheet in the last 9 games.

Man United have conceded in the 3 straight games for the second time this year (GW4-6). They've notched back to back clean sheets just once (GW17-19).

Of the 27 defenders who scored more than once last season, only four - Samba, Nelsen, Huth and Ridgewell - have managed to net more than once this year. This is why I rarely advocate paying for goals when it comes to defenders (technically Bale, who was a defender in last year's game has of course scored more than once).

Man City and Sunderland now have 11 clean sheets each with only two other teams (Man Utd (8) and Chelsea (9)) over seven. Both teams have a 7-4 home/away split. One team has more road clean sheets than both of these teams: Blackpool.

West Brom has the longest streak of failing to keep a clean sheet, having conceded in every game since GW2 (their only clean sheet this year). City on the other hand have three straight clean sheets.

Midfielders

Nani is currently by far the best player using aPoints as a measure with 172 points, 14 more than teammate Berbatov. Nani has added 38 points in his last 5 games.

Over the past 5 gameweeks, Van der Vaart leads all players with 32 points despite only playing 4 times. Best value however is Simon Davies whose 1.436 PPMS leads all players who have 3 or more appearances over the past 5 gameweeks.

James Milner (6%) is owned by 6 times more people than Simon Davies (1%) despite the fact that over the last 7 gameweeks Milner has featured in every game but scored just 12 points.

Malouda is still owned by an insane 28% of owners despite having contributed exactly one quality game (GW20) since GW10. His PPMS in that time is 0.321.

In Fabregas' last 7 games he has scored 49 points with 5 quality games and just two duds. The problem however is that these games date back to GW12 thanks to a combination of injuries and postponements. If he can stay healthy Fabregas is probably the second best premium midfielders after Nani.

Charlie Adam leads all players with 27 bonus points to date, 8 more than any other midfielder and four more than second placed Tevez.

Forwards

Not a single one of the forwards I track have managed more than two quality games over the last five gameweeks. Only Drogba and Berbatov have managed two (I don't track all players so I may be missing the odd one).

In the past 5 gameweeks, four forwards have scored more than 20 points: Berbatov, Drogba, Tevez and Rodallega. With 23 points for just 5.6m Rodallega is clearly the best value. He is owned by just 3% of owners too and deserves serious consideration for Caroll, Elmander and Chamakh owners.

Chelsea have now failed to score on 6 occasions, more than Wolves and Blackpool. Man United have still only been blanked twice this year and never at home. Next in line are Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle and, surprisingly, Blackburn.

Over the past 3 gameweeks, only Man United and Spurs have scored in all three games. Blackburn and Newcastle have the most goals with 6.

Andy Carroll is still owned by 48% of managers despite being a couple of weeks away from returning from injury. Unless you're sat on a huge profit you need to move on for the short term. Equally, Chamakh (18%) appears to be the odd man out in the Fabregas-Nasri-Van Persie-Chamakh-Arshavin-Walcott lottery and his playing time appears too limited to warrant such a large investment.

Bolton have scored just 4 goals in the their last 5 games, with Elmander and Davies adding just a goal a piece in that period. This once red hot pair are now droppable and you should investigate other options if you're about to play your wildcard.

Gummi - I agree that at this point losing a substantial profit on a player probably means you don't want him back. This is what makes the Carroll move so tough. He's very valuable when fit but how long can you be a man down.

One wrinkle this year however is that money really isn't a problem for a lot of players. With most of the big names struggling I have often had millions in the bank and no desire to use it. For example, regardless of price, Nani and VdV would be picked in a dreamtime right now with Lamparfd, Gerrard and Fabregas no where to be seen.

You can therefore probably afford to miss out on say 0.5 profit on one of the players you mention even if you want them back in the future. I would say Foster and Ridgewell are sellable given the abundance of reasonably price defenses (sun, Bla, bol). Carroll really depends on if you spare a roster spot for another couple of weeks.

Chris - A good point on the money this season. I´ve had >2M in the bank for a lot of gameweeks and seen no need to spend it. That also holds to Ridgewell and Foster; I will not sell them unless I´ll use the money for someone productive.

That being said, the top defenders get less PPG than both midfielders and forwards so, with the wildcard, I can go with a cheap defence (Bardsley, Djourou, Coleman, Givet, Ferdinand (or Rafael)) and a midfield and forward line of (Nani, Barton, VDV, Adam, Fabregas) and (Tevez, Berbatov, Van Persie). Seems quite impressive to me.

I am dying to bring in RvP or Fab but there production isn't quite there yet. Fab is showing signs and RvP got the goal a couple of weeks back but they aren't contributing regularly enough in the same way nani, Tevez and Berbatov are right now. Of the top of my head arsenal have good games coming up with I think only spurs away looking very tough. I am going to scour the chalkboards and stats over the next few days to make a decision. They will feature heavily in my upcoming piece on how to use the wildcard window.