Technical Market Report

The good news is:
• Next week, the second week in July, is seasonally the strongest week
of the month.

Short term

The new low indicator is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of new lows plotted on an
inverted Y axis (up is good). Direction is most important, but level has some
significance. Risk is low when the indicator is moving upward and at a low
level. For the NASDAQ low level may be defined as less than 40 on the indicator
(10% trend) and less than 70 as a raw numerical value. When the indicator turns
upward from a low it is prudent to wait for at least 5 consecutive up days
before considering the market "safe".

The chart below shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in red and new low indicator
calculated from NASDAQ new lows in blue. As of Friday's close the indicator
completed 6 consecutive up days, but flattened on Friday. There were 79 new
lows on Friday and the value of the indicator is 79, an uncomfortably high
level. The next few days will be critical, if there are fewer than 79 new lows
the indicator will move upward suggesting the low in June was the bottom.

Intermediate term

The chart below shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red and an indicator showing
the ratio of new highs to new lows (NH / (NH + NL)) of the component issues
of the R2K. For this chart new highs and new lows were calculated on a trailing
6 week basis rather than a trailing 52 week basis as reported by the exchanges.

This indicator has been changing direction every 2-3 weeks and prices have
been following; the indicator just turned downward.

Seasonality

Next week is the week prior to the 2nd Friday of July during the 2nd year
of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables below show daily returns for the OTC from 1966 - 2002 and S&P
500 (SPX) from 1930 - 2002 during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. There
are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years
combined beginning with 1963 for the OTC and 1928 for the SPX.

During most years this period has been pretty strong, especially for the blue
chips, however, gains for the OTC during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle
have been modest.

Report for the week prior to the 2nd Friday in July
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2

Year

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thur

Fri

Totals

1966-2

0.00%

0.30%

-0.09%

0.64%

0.60%

1.45%

1970-2

0.55%

-0.48%

1.04%

1.80%

1.93%

4.84%

1974-2

-3.55%

-0.52%

-1.09%

-0.24%

2.84%

-2.56%

1978-2

0.17%

0.38%

0.38%

0.12%

0.95%

2.00%

1982-2

0.00%

-0.49%

-0.67%

-0.76%

0.76%

-1.16%

1986-2

-1.72%

-1.59%

0.27%

0.49%

-0.14%

-2.68%

Avg

-1.14%

-0.54%

-0.02%

0.28%

1.27%

0.09%

1990-2

0.25%

-0.15%

0.64%

0.70%

0.27%

1.71%

1994-2

0.00%

-0.46%

-0.37%

0.79%

0.13%

0.09%

1998-2

1.16%

0.15%

1.33%

0.31%

0.41%

3.35%

2002-2

-2.95%

-1.74%

-2.54%

2.11%

-0.07%

-5.19%

Avg

-0.51%

-0.55%

-0.24%

0.98%

0.19%

-0.01%

OTC summary for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2002

Avg

-0.87%

-0.46%

-0.11%

0.60%

0.77%

0.18%

Win%

57%

30%

50%

80%

80%

60%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2005

Avg

0.03%

-0.13%

0.21%

0.25%

0.44%

0.79%

Win%

70%

47%

57%

65%

77%

65%

SPX Presidential Year 2

Year

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thur

Fri

Totals

1930-2

2.05%

-0.19%

0.75%

0.47%

0.88%

3.96%

1934-2

-0.10%

0.61%

0.50%

-0.80%

0.20%

0.41%

1938-2

0.00%

-1.32%

1.34%

-0.41%

-1.65%

-2.05%

1942-2

1.07%

-0.23%

2.47%

1.03%

-0.11%

4.22%

1946-2

-0.38%

0.54%

0.16%

-0.54%

-0.65%

-0.87%

Avg

0.66%

-0.12%

1.04%

-0.05%

-0.27%

1.14%

1950-2

-0.45%

-1.53%

-2.60%

-1.07%

1.08%

-4.57%

1954-2

0.00%

1.12%

0.07%

0.00%

0.67%

1.85%

1958-2

-1.27%

-0.07%

0.31%

0.66%

0.48%

0.12%

1962-2

0.68%

1.15%

0.93%

0.52%

-0.34%

2.93%

1966-2

0.00%

0.25%

1.44%

0.37%

0.26%

2.32%

Avg

-0.35%

0.18%

0.03%

0.12%

0.43%

0.53%

1970-2

-0.12%

-0.08%

1.09%

1.48%

1.77%

4.13%

1974-2

-3.07%

0.48%

-1.83%

-0.13%

4.08%

-0.46%

1978-2

0.40%

0.69%

0.32%

0.01%

1.38%

2.81%

1982-2

0.00%

-0.33%

-0.07%

0.29%

1.21%

1.10%

1986-2

-1.70%

-1.87%

0.58%

0.45%

0.12%

-2.41%

Avg

-1.12%

-0.22%

0.02%

0.42%

1.71%

1.03%

1990-2

0.31%

-0.84%

1.33%

1.17%

0.51%

2.47%

1994-2

0.00%

0.04%

-0.05%

0.50%

0.26%

0.75%

1998-2

0.08%

1.06%

-0.24%

0.78%

0.23%

1.91%

2002-2

-1.22%

-2.47%

-3.40%

0.75%

-0.64%

-6.98%

Avg

-0.28%

-0.55%

-0.59%

0.80%

0.09%

-0.46%

SPX summary for Presidential Year 2 1930 - 2002

Avg

-0.27%

-0.16%

0.16%

0.31%

0.51%

0.61%

Win%

43%

47%

68%

72%

74%

68%

SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2005

Avg

0.04%

-0.08%

0.20%

0.02%

0.24%

0.41%

Win%

59%

43%

58%

57%

64%

62%

Conclusion

Some of the indicators suggest the market has entered a down cycle that will
last about two weeks, but next weeks seasonal strength should moderate that
decline.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday July 14 than they were on
Friday July 7.

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Gordon Harms produces a Power Point for our local timing group meetings, you
can get a copy of that at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/.
Our timing group meets on the 1st Wednesday of the month. If you are lucky
enough to be in Minnesota during that time this summer you are welcome to attend.

Mike Burk independently publishes a weekly newsletter on the stock market from a technical perspective.

Charts and figures presented
herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy.
Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack
(fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com).
Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed are
provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way
as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without
notice.