Sam Kiley

Foreign Affairs Editor

The first explanation to be dealt derives from the cock-up theory of world affairs. This suggests that unintended events drive history as much as grand strategy.

So Hamas, or its radical allies, didn’t shoot a missile towards Jerusalem - they were aiming somewhere else and it went awry.

Admitting this would have been embarrassing for a militant group which prides itself on efficiency and discipline.

After all, a misfire which landed on the West Bank close to Jewish settlements risked killing Palestinians more than it risked killing Israelis.

On top of that, hitting the Gush Etzion settler block raised the danger of international outrage if the missile had drifted off into Bethlehem nearby.

One could argue that Hamas made a hash of the launch of what they are now claiming is a new long-range missile. Then pretended the mistake was intentional, and sought to make the best of a bad shot.

Oddly enough, the effect of the cock-up theory would be the same as the effect of a conspiracy theory.

In that model Hamas got its hands on a new weapon. It fired it at settlers in the West Bank, not far from Jerusalem and hit its intended target - an illegal Jewish bloc in the Occupied Territories.

This sends a message to fellow Palestinians on the West Bank that there is a force among them to be seriously reckoned with.

Image:Israelis see Jerusalem as their capital

It could lure many away from the moderate views of the Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. It could help to trigger a Third Intifada.

And it is a psychological blow to the Jewish citizens of Jerusalem who have never considered themselves physically vulnerable to events on the Gaza Strip.

Cock-up or conspiracy?

In the Middle East, a modern concept forged in Roman, Greek and Byzantine Empires, tempered by the Ottomans and bent out of shape by Europe’s colonial powers - every event is a conspiracy.

That is bad news for Israel, and very bad news for the 1.7 million Palestinians trapped in Gaza.

If Hamas has new rockets. If Hamas fired them at Jerusalem successfully. And if Hamas has more of these in an arsenal already estimated to have held 10,000 missiles - then Israel will launch a ground assault. Obviously.

Less obvious is the next level of conspiracy, or unintended consequences.

Is a ground assault in Hamas' interests?

Has Hamas - the militant group, trained by experts from Hizbollah who are probably the world's greatest insurgents, prepared a trap for Israel?

It has been re-arming itself. Israeli sources say it has state-of-the-art tank killing weaponry and Hizbollah’s expertise with improvised bombs.

With the Arab street rallying to its cause in Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan; Hamas under fire looks stronger than it did a few weeks ago.

Imagine Israeli troops ambushed in the maze of Gaza City. Groups of young men killed and captured. Israel forced into the use of devastating weapons or an ignominious retreat

So as he contemplates giving Israel's famed Golani, Givati and Paratroop brigades now on the start line outside Gaza the ‘GO!’ order, the Israeli Prime Minister must ask himself whether or not he is doing Hamas' bidding.