Michigan

Lions will draft a left tackle with their No. 1 pick

Aaron Curry could probably be a tremendous middle linebacker and I'm sure the Detroit Lions are going to let everyone know that as the draft approaches, but I'm more and more convinced that the Lions are going to draft a left tackle.

It's going to be Baylor's Jason Smith or Virginia's Eugene Monroe and the selection between those two will most likely be based on the contract negotiations leading up to the draft.

There are several reasons why I think it's going to be a left tackle:

• I just don't believe the Lions are sold on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford. Yeah, he's probably going to have an awesome pro day workout on Thursday but I'm not sure that's going answer some of the inconsistency questions that keep popping up on his college tape. The Lions know they need to upgrade the quarterback position and that's why I think they're going to be in the ear of the Broncos for a possible trade with Jay Cutler.

Cutler might not show up for Monday's off-season program in Denver and don't forget that the owners' meetings begin next Sunday. Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand are going to be seeing a lot of Broncos owner Pat Bowlen and you can bet they'll try to sell him on a deal.

• Curry, who is having dinner with some members of the Lions organization tonight, will visit the team facility tomorrow and go through a more extensive interview. Curry might be a good fit, but I'm not sure his selection makes sense salary cap-wise. Left tackle is one of the big-money positions and it seems more logical, to me anyway, that the Lions would prefer to drop $32 million in guaranteed money into that position instead of linebacker.

Mayhew already has made it very clear that he's open to moving veteran Jeff Backus to guard.

More than anything, the reason I think a left tackle is the pick is because of something I've heard from everyone in the organization, especially head coach Jim Schwartz. He keeps talking about running the ball and stopping the run and, when you can do those things, you become more consistent from week to week. I don't think it's rhetoric. I think Schwartz is committed to building the Lions in the trenches first. He's often talked about how much more leverage an offensive coordinator can have when he has a dominant left tackle. Along with a pass-rushing defensive end, left tackle is the most important position on the line of scrimmage.

The Lions, of course, are going to let everyone keep believing that Stafford and Curry are viable options at No. 1, partly because the Lions could find a place for them, but mostly because it'll make negotiating with the left tackles easier in mid-April.

There are still six weeks before the draft and a lot of things are going to change. Players at the top of the board will see their stock ebb and flow but the one thing that won't change is the Lions' commitment to building their team in the trenches first. That's why it's going to be a left tackle at that No. 1 spot.