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Less than 3 hours until the polls close, and some voters are still undecided

Ruth Sherlock sets the scene of the New Hampshire primary, where voters are toying with the candidate's emotions:

American television networks, pundits and the campaigns themselves are full of speculation about about how today's primary might play out, but the underlying truth is that nobody has any idea.

The general assumption is that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump will win for their respective parties, but what happens beyond that is anybody's guess.

Usually the internal polling done by campaigns on their candidate is a little more reliable than the public polls, but on New Hampshire, even they are not yielding any clues.

Worried looking insiders of Marco Rubio's campaign told me this morning they have no idea how this is going to go: "He could come first, or second, or fifth. We just don't know."

Exeter, New Hampshire: behind the apparent wealth is a large number of 'working poor' (Dermot Tatlow)

Part of the reason for this is New Hampshire's famously independent voters. An oddity of the voting system in this state is that it allows voters who are not affiliated with a party may cast a ballot in either primary. Independents are allowed to choose whether they want to be Republican or Democrat, and register for that party for the duration of the time that it takes to vote.

Independents then traditionally don't decide who they will vote for until the very last minute. And they are not a fringe movement: in the last two presidential elections, they made up almost half of the voters.

A CNN/WMUR poll released Monday, more than half of Republican voters said they still had not made up their minds.

In asking New Hampshire voters to support him, Chris Christie joked about their indecision: "What do you all go Christmas shopping on Christmas eve?" he said, describing a scene of chaos as the state's entire population descended on the stores.

Whither Rubio?

Marco Rubio surged to a clear second in New Hampshire last week following his strong performance in Iowa. But he has been attacked relentlessly in recent days by his rivals on the establishment wing of the party, most notably Chris Christie.

The line of attack had been that Mr Rubio was a talented and charasmatic politician, but he lacks the experience and strength to be commander-in-chief. A tangential criticism was that, due to his youth and inexperience, he was allowing himself to be handled, and was memorising speeches rather than thinking on his feet.

Those criticisms came to fruition during Mr Rubio's gaffe for the ages at the most recent debate, when he delivered virtually the same exact memorised line four times, with a gleeful Mr Christie making sure the audience noticed. The "Marco-bot" then malfunctioned again yesterday:

It remains unclear how large the 'scripted' criticism will play in voters' minds today, and Mr Rubio could finish anywhere from second to sixth. Thus, he could leave New Hampshire as a front-runner or a wounded candidate.

This news has rocked the political world and voters alike. On the day that New Hampshire residents are going to the polls, many are questioning what this news (or as some people have called it, heresy) says about his character.

"When it comes to great steaks, I've just raised the stakes. Trump Steaks are the greatest steaks, and I mean that in every sense of the word," he says in an advert. "Trump Steaks are by far the best-tasting, most flavorful beef you've ever had, truly in a league of their own."

Here he is selling his steaks:

An anti-Trump super PAC fundraising group has been formed and it's called 'PutASteakInTrump'.

The latest polls

On the Republican side we have seen Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz's support tick downward slightly in recent days, with John Kasich and Jeb Bush as the main beneficiaries. Will voters break late for the two moderate governors?

Why are American voters so angry?

Nick Allen and Ruth Sherlock have put together a great piece on how anger is the key motivator for voters this election. Read the whole article here.

At a recent debate on the presidential campaign trail, Donald Trump summed up America in 2016.

"I will gladly accept the mantle of anger," he said. "People are very angry because our country is being run horribly."

Many people outside the US have struggled to understand the transformation of Mr Trump from billionaire property mogul and television star to perhaps the next Republican presidential nominee.

Robert Holmes outside one of his tattoo parlours (Dermot Tatlow)

It happened because, more than any other candidate, he recognised that vast swathes of America are not just annoyed with their government - they are at boiling point.

The bubbling discontent covers a myriad of issues including poverty, border protection and immigration, the mistreatment of military veterans, and spiralling health care costs.

At its heart is a fundamental breakdown of trust in government. For many Americans, Washington seems a long way away populated by venal politicians with their snouts in the trough who have left the rest of the country behind.

Large turnout predicted

Local officials are predicting turnout of up to 75 per cent of registered voters here in New Hampshire. That's far higher than we saw in Iowa, where the complicated caucus format depresses turnout, and could be good news for the front-runners.

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are hoping first-time and occasional voters will come out to support them.

"Expect tens of thousands of new voters," Ray Buckley, a local Democratic official, tells MSNBC, noting that university students are on campus, and many will head to the polls.

Nearly all of the students I met at the University of New Hampshire last night said they will be voting.

Primary sub-plot: Trump v Bush

Jeb Bush entered the 2016 race as the unquestioned front-runner, with record fundraising and party power brokers all lined up behind him.

But then, Donald Trump happened.

Mr Trump soared past the struggling Mr Bush, hurling taunts ("low-energy", "weak") as he went by. Their debate showdowns are already legend, with Mr Trump bullying the former Florida governor before millions of viewers across America.

"Jeb is sad and desperate, he's a pathetic person. He's gone absolutely crazy. This guy is a nervous wreck, I've never seen anything like it.

"Jeb is having some kind of a breakdown. He's an embarrassment to his family. Frankly, he's a stiff. He's not a guy who can be president. He doesn't have what it takes to be president."

No, Mr Bush is not likely to beat Mr Trump today. But his attacks may help him with the large anti-Trump demographic here. And if his campaign lasts beyond New Hampshire, he's sure to have more run-ins with Mr Trump.

Word association with Donald Trump

Donald Trump appears confident ahead of tonight's results, though he did say in an interview on MSNBC that his supporters have to turn out to vote or it's all for nothing. The interview then turned to word assocation. Here were his responses:

New Hampshire has historically served two vital functions. First, it has been far more predictive than Iowa in terms of who will go on to be the presidential nominees, and should give us a clearer idea of who the front-runners are.

Second, it is make-or-break for second-tier candidates. Follow up a poor showing in Iowa with a disappointing result in New Hampshire, and you can pack your bags and go home.

What to expect:

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has a formidable lead but questions still remain. Will the thousands of people he has brought in to the political process for the first time actually turn up to vote? Will there be a last minute change of heart of the sort that saw many voters in Iowa switch their allegiance to Marco Rubio?

For the Democrats things are a bit simpler. Bernie Sanders, a left wing senator from neighbouring Vermont, has a big lead over Hillary Clinton in the polls.

The states that follow New Hamsphire look more friendly to the former secretary of state, so a loss would not be catastrophic. Her goal is to keep things close enough that fundamental questions don't start cropping up about the viability of her campaign.

New Hampshire is notoriously unpredictable, and there are certain to be some surprises in store.

Donald Trump: If I don't win I'm leaving

Ruth Sherlock, our US Editor, was just sitting down for a well-earned steak supper when guess who walked in...

Donald Trump has told The Telegraph that if he doesn't win New Hampshire he is "outta here".

Mr Trump, speaking at a restaurant where he had just eaten a $54 ribeye steak (well done), was on bullish form as he prepared for a likely victory in the New Hampshire polls.

Asked how he was preparing for tomorrow, he said: How do I prepare? I dunno I wanna win. If I don't win I am leaving," he said. Turning to a customer in a nearby booth he said in a joking tone: "If I lose I am outta here to South Carolina!"

Mr Trump came to the Hanover Chophouse, the best steak restaurant in Manchester, after his last rally to encourage voters to the polls.

He sat in a booth in the corner with his family and secret service all around.

He sat beside Melania, his wife, and Donald Trump junior, his son. Three members of the family ordered "well done" chicken and another a "well done" salmon.

Leaving the restaurant he stopped to speak to a table of American journalists from the Daily Caller conservative news site. Asked who he thought would come second in the New Hampshire primary he said: "Well Rubio's numbers are just not going down."

He then launched into a comic routine about Mr Rubio's "sweat problem"- a common refrain by Mr Trump. "I was standing near the guy on the debate stage," he said referring to a recent Republican debate. "The guy just sweating and sweating. And I was like: 'Hey are you OK man?'"

Who says Jeb Bush is stiff?

Jeb Bush: Donald Trump is a 'loser'

Nick Allen reports on the intensifying feud between Donald Trump and Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush called Donald Trump a "loser, liar and a whiner" as their war of words exploded on the eve of the New Hampshire vote.

Mr Bush who is lagging in polls behind the billionaire said he would not allow "someone try to hijack a party that I believe will allow people to rise up again."

Mr Trump responded: "Jeb is sad and desperate, he's a pathetic person. He's gone absolutely crazy. This guy is a nervous wreck, I've never seen anything like it.

"Jeb is having some kind of a breakdown. He's an embarrassment to his family. Frankly, he's a stiff. He's not a guy who can be president. He doesn't have what it takes to be president."

Mr Trump, speaking at a rally in New Hampshire, added: "He goes around saying, 'I'm the only one with the courage to go after Trump.' What courage is it? He says nasty things and I put him down and he goes away like a little sheep. He's like a spoiled child. He's spent $110 million on a campaign and he's nowhere."

Trump says he'd look syrian refugee children in the face and say no

Nick Allen reports on an earlier Donald Trump meeting where he was questioned by voters:

At a relatively small event in Salem, New Hampshire, Mr Trump answered questions in front of a crowd of 200.

One man said he lived in Greenwich Connecticut, where Mr Trump has a home, and there were plans to relocate some Syrian refugee families there.

He asked Mr Trump if he could "look children aged five, eight, ten, in the face and tell them they can't go to school here".

Mr Trump didn't hesitate and said he could, which brought applause from the crowd.

The billionaire said: "I can look in their faces and say you can't come. I'll look them in the face.

"Look, we don't know where their parents come from. Their parents should always stay with them, that's very important, but we don't know where their parents come from, they have no documentation. They may be Isil, they may be Isil-related."

Mr Trump went on: "They caught people migrating with cell phones. This is migration and they have nothing, but they have cell phones. They have cell phones with Isil flags on, and worse, a lot of bad stuff on the phones. Where the hell do they get cell phones? Who the hell's paying the bill? Does that make any sense?"

He told the questioner: "I understand where your coming from but I don't think they should be moving into Greenwich, Connecticut. It could be a Trojan horse. If two per cent of those people are bad the trouble is unbelievable."

Mr Trump added: "I have a bigger heart than anybody in this room. We take an area of Syria and build safe zones."

A meandering ramble through talking points

Ruth Sherlock is at Donald Trump's rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Donald Trump made a long, disorganised and somewhat underwhelming speech for what was meant to be the last push to get voters to turn out for him in New Hampshire.

He started relatively well, describing his last rally as a "love fest". And then, as if giving a victory acceptance speech, he thanked Melania his wife for being "unbelievable and understanding" about his long months of presidential campaigning.

With a snowstorm outside, the 10,000 capacity stadium is not full, but he has still drawn a respectable crowd, with the seating almost filled.

But he then made a tired and meandering ramble across his talking points from the last few months. These were mixed in an obscure discussion about the difficulty that ABC had calling out the order of the candidates when introducing them at the debate on Saturday night. The audience was forgiving, but some began to leave. Others rolled their eyes.

It was only when he mentioned his plan to build his "big beautiful wall" on the southern border of the US to stop immigration that the audience began to rally again chanting "USA!"

He ended calling for them to vote. There were loud cheers, but not all seemed convinced.

A Telegraph straw poll of members of the audience found that 25 people were committed to voting for Mr Trump, but a full 16 people were undecided. Nonetheless, Mr Trump leads in the polls by 17 points and most pundits expect him to win.

Dixville Notch prepares to vote

Election fever will come early at Dixville Notch in Northern New Hampshire, where the town’s registered nine voters get to vote at midnight, David Millward reports.

They will cast their ballot at the Balsams Resort in the White Mountains.

At around the same time, 15 voters will pile into the Log Haven pub in Millsfield also make their feelings known as will 41 people at Hart’s Location, another speck on the landscape in the heart of the White Mountain National Forest.

Chris Christie hates weed and shares his M&Ms

Ruth Sherlock is at a town hall meeting with Chris Christie, the charismatic New Jersey senator who destroyed Marco Rubio on the debate stage on Saturday night. Here are some of his best nuggets:

Can you handle the heat?

Mr Rubio responded by repeating the same rehearsed criticism of Barack Obama four times. Here's what Mr Christie said about it: "For four days I was telling everybody what I was going to say. It was no great surprise. But how do you react when the lights are bright and the pressure is on is important".

He said if he couldn't handle the New Jersey governor, how could he handle a battle against Hillary Clinton at the national election: "They are tough," he said. "They rolled Bill (Clinton) out last night to give Bernie Sanders a beating - he was beating him like a rug, like only old Clinton can do."

"This is not a game and it's not a tv show; it's the real deal. Lives are on the line. You need someone with experience in the White House. I won't be the flahiest guy but I ain't bad."

"Get high now, because when I am president it's over"

Drug addiction - particularly heroin, is a key problem in New Hampshire state. Mr Christie gave a compassionate response, saying that addiction is a "disease" that should not be treated as a crime. He said that in his state of New Jersey, addicts are being incarcerated less, driving the prison rate by 20 per cent. And so they closed a prison and have converted it into a "drug treatment facility" for addicted prisoners. They go there at the end of their sentence, so that they can have a "shot at life" once they are released.

But, Mr Christie said, he remains against the legalisation of marijuana. He said that when he was giving a speech in Boulder, Colorado, where marijuana consumption is legal.

"A kid shouted at me "Hey man, why do you hate pot?"," he said.

"I replied: "hey kid, get high now because when I am president it's over"."

"Nancy Pelosi can steal my M&Ms"

Speaking about healing the divisions between the two parties in Washington, Mr Christie accused Mr Obama of not building working relationships with his opponents. He said John Boehner, the former speaker was the was "only invited on Air Force One once in six years".

Nancy Pelosi, Mr Boehner's replacement, "can come on airforce one whenever she wants when I am president," he said. "She can steal all my M&Ms if she wants."

"Priests are after your wallets"

Mr Christie compared those in charge of university admissions to money-grabbing Catholic priests: "He gets your heart going and then he goes for your wallet," he said "That's what priests do in my experience."

"We don't need a president who wants to keep all Muslims out of the United States"

Mr Christie made an indirect attack against Mr Trump, saying that America did not need a president that bans Muslims from the United States (as Mr Trump has previously said).

Are we giving Ted Cruz enough credit?

The overriding narratives after Iowa were that Donald Trump needed a bounce-back win in New Hampshire, and Marco Rubio was surging toward a strong second place finish here that could catapult him to the nomination as the consensus "establishment" (or anti-Trump) candidate.

That shifted slightly after Mr Rubio's disastrous debate performance on Saturday, and there was talk that the likes of John Kasich or Jeb Bush might rise up to take the baton fumbled by the charismatic Florida senator.

But what about the Iowa winner? Ted Cruz was tied with Mr Rubio in the most recent New Hampshire poll, sits in second nationwide and has the fundraising and grassroots organisation to compete all the way to the Republican convention.

If he finishes second in New Hampshire, where voters do not generally align with his Bible-thumping arch-conservatism, he will head to South Carolina (where he, again, polls second) with one victory and one runner-up finish.

He has a robust turnout operation here, has been keeping up a manic campaign schedule, and is visiting the rural New Hampshire counties that other candidates have ignored.

We may well look back on Wednesday morning and think, 'why weren't we paying more attention to Ted Cruz?'

During his 12-year tenure as mayor of America's largest city Mr Bloomberg was a rarity in US politics, an Independent. He is a former Republican whose reforms as mayor were more popular with Democrats.

A Bloomberg candidacy would be well funded- he is the world's 14th-richest man according to Forbes and would reportedly spend up to $1 billion if he were to enter the race. It could also appeal to a broad range of those Americans discouraged by America's polarised politics.

Michael Bloomberg has frequently been linked with a White House run Photo: REUTERS

His aides have said he is more likely to run if the Republicans nominate Donald Trump and/or the Democrats chose Bernie Sanders.

“I find the level of discourse and discussion distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to the voters,” Mr Sanders told the FT.

Introducing John Kasich

Ruth Sherlock has this introduction to a lesser known candidate who is now shaking things up in the New Hampshire primary race:

It was snowing thick and fast but a crowd of people still turned out to hear John Kasich, the govenor of Ohio, speak. They filled the hall of the church in Wyndham, New Hampshire and in the lobby, an overflow of people shushed each other, straining their ears to hear him.

Mr Kasich has shot to second place in the state, according to some of the polls, challenging Marco Rubio, the young Florida senator for the establishment vote.

Inside the church Mr Kasich gave a speech designed to show how, as governor of Ohio, he already had a record of addressing issues that voters cared about. He tried to show himself the most capable and experienced man in the Republican field.

Although he refrained from overtly attacking his rivals, Mr Kasich was tried to show that he had a better record in business than Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the state.

Mr Trump has bewailed the loss of American jobs to China and other countries. The loss of Ford manufacturing plants to Mexico has become a regular feature of his stump speech.

And so Mr Kasich took his complaints and showed how he had already taken steps to fix the problems.

Rather than having businesses move abroad to cheaper labour markets such as China - a common problem in today's US economy, Mr Kasich said, Chinese companies were coming to find workers in Ohio.

"I have a Chinese investor who is building an industrial plant in Ohio," he said. "They are coming because our people are trained. We need to to able to bring businesses back.

Under his governorship, he said "Ford has brought jobs back from Mexico to Ohio".

He talked about the healthcare system, describing a hospital bill as being "more complicated than the Dead Sea scrolls". And then spoke about a project that has been put in place in Ohio to rate hospitals, so that Americans know what services they are getting.

The governor finished with an appeal to his audience to turn out and vote tomorrow: "I want to take unifying message of positive growth to the whole economy," he said. "I believe we can get the American spirit back".

Bernie Sanders and his political revolution against Hillary Clinton

He is a septuagenarian senator and self-avowed socialist, but Bernie Sanders is on course for a resounding victory over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary this week – a win that would set up a dogfight for the Democratic nomination that looked unthinkable just a few months ago.

After running Mrs Clinton to a virtual tie in Iowa, the virulently anti-establishment Vermont senator is now averaging 17 points clear of Mrs Clinton in the Granite State – a stunning reversal from six month ago when the former secretary of state led by 40.

His anti-capitalist call to arms has inspired millions of young Americans and resonated strongly in the liberal counties of New Hampshire where Mr Sanders was met with a roar of approval at a rally in the city of Rochester this week...

It remains unclear whether Mr Sanders’s message can really propel him all the way to the nomination – Mrs Clinton still holds a clear lead in many upcoming primary states – but a big loss here would add to the sense that Mrs Clinton’s aura of invincibility is fading fast.

Nationally, Mr Sanders has erased a 30 point margin with Mrs Clinton among Democrats in just six weeks, pulling into a statistical tie with the former secretary of state according to a Quinnipiac University Poll poll released on Friday.

Among young women, once seen as a reliable voting bloc for Mrs Clinton, more than 80 per cent support the Vermont senator.

He even outperforms Mrs Clinton in hypothetical general election match-ups with Republicans, and is flush with cash from an unprecedented wave of more than 2.5 million small-dollar donations to his campaign.

As Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, put it “Democrats nationwide are ‘feeling the Bern’.”