Matt Duchene will miss the first round of the playoffs. Because of that, the Colorado Avalanche are even more likely to miss the second round of the playoffs.

Duchene is out for about four weeks with a knee injury, the team announced. That would set him up for a late-April return — or, in other words, the second round. That's a problem for the Avs, given that they're essentially guaranteed to play the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round.

Even with Duchene, they'd have been easy to pick against; in close games at even strength, they take just 47.6 percent of unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick Close), which is fourth-worst in the league.

That's not a harbinger for playoff success, and it's actually trended downward since mid-December; in 20 games since the start of February, the Avs have out-attempted their opponents at even strength exactly twice.

In their last 10 games alone, per ExtraSkater.com, the Avs carry a 44.8 percent Fenwick Close, even while enjoying a fair amount of luck — and now their leading scorer, with 70 points (23G, 47A) is out of the equation.

Compare that to the Blackhawks; a three-game losing streak aside, they've held steady at 55.0 Fenwick Close or better since Jan. 12 and are at 55.3 percent in their last 10. For the season, they're at 55.7 percent, second-best in the league. A portion of that performance has come without Patrick Kane, though Kane's even-strength effectiveness had been hampered by playing with subpar centers before his own knee injury.

Factor in that Jonathan Toews' shoulder injury doesn't seem to be as serious as initially feared, and it's easy to forecast doom for the Avs, whether they finish the season with more points than the Blackhawks or not. Semyon Varlamov is good enough to steal games, and may well pull it off, but that's likely what it'll take for Duchene to have a chance to play again at all.