“If Washington prices are reduced to the point where residents stop coming over, what we’re going to see is, for example, if it’s a 10 percent drop in sales, that’s a reduction in $3.5 million in profit,” Tatro says.

Tatro says at least 13 Idaho-run liquor stores are within a few miles of the border. These stores account for nearly a quarter of all liquor sales in the state.

He adds it’s tough to provide a full analysis because Idaho’s Liquor Division doesn’t track where its customers live.

Jeffrey Anderson, the Division’s director, counters Washington distributors and retailers can only go so far to drop liquor prices.

“While Costco in Clarkston and Spokane may offer a limited number of products at very low prices, we find it difficult to understand how prices will go much lower because there are so many taxes and fees,” he says.

Costco and other large grocers in Washington will start to sell spirits on June 1 of next year. Costco spent more than $22 million on the privatization initiative.