Carl Leubsdorf: Assessing the odds on Obama’s immigration remarks

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. President Barack Obama speaks to supporters, local politicans and steelworkers at the USX Irvin Works Wednesday in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. Repeating some of the same policy proposals from his State of the Union speech the night before, Obama is beginning a two-day, four-state tour to promote a raise in the minimum wage, immigration reform and other other policy ideas.

On the morning of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech, the lead story on the front page of The New York Times laid out the details — and the politics — of the immigration plan House Republican leaders are unveiling at this week’s party conference.

In the end, that meeting may prove more consequential than anything the president said during Tuesday night’s 65-minute speech or that Republicans added in response.

Political reaction mostly followed the usual partisan lines with Republicans especially critical of Obama’s vow to use executive powers where Congress fails to act. However, some embattled Democratic senators sought to separate themselves from Obama. A CNN poll of speech viewers showed mainly positive responses, probably reflecting the fact that more of any president’s partisans watch such presentations.

Judging from post-speech commentary, Obama’s carefully crafted array of proposals — and an emotional climax featuring a soldier wounded in Afghanistan — was far more effective than Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ official GOP response, long on criticism and short on specifics.

Neither advanced the immigration debate. “It is time to heed the call of business leaders, labor leaders, faith leaders, and law enforcement — and fix our broken immigration system,” Obama said, citing massive economic benefits some economists say would follow.

He avoided specifics, notably the GOP-opposed provision in the Senate bill providing a path for illegal immigrants to citizenship, thus leaving open the prospect of a subsequent compromise if the House passes some form of its plan. But differences remain obvious.

McMorris Rodgers, echoing four House Judiciary Committee-approved bills, called for “a step-by-step solution to immigration reform by first securing our borders and making sure America will always attract the best, brightest, and hardest working from around the world.”

In the GOP’s Spanish language response, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida called similarly for fixing “our broken immigration system with a permanent solution.”

Their language reflected the stance of Speaker John Boehner and other House GOP leaders. But the party’s substantial tea party faction opposes action now, as do important outside conservative voices, like the magazines National Review and Weekly Standard.

The tea party opposition was reflected in the decision by its designated spokesman, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, and another GOP responder, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, to avoid the subject in listing proposals for action.

The Judiciary Committee measures would give states more power to create and enforce immigration law, expand use of electronic databases to screen job applicants, create a new temporary agricultural guest worker program and expand the number of green cards for temporary high-skilled workers and immigrant entrepreneurs.

Though far more limited than the Obama-backed, Senate-passed bill, that could lead to a negotiable version of the legislation he made a major second term goal and Republicans need to improve their standing with Hispanics.

Still, a GOP decision to proceed with legislation won’t necessarily mean it will pass, given conservative concentration on strengthening enforcement of current laws and expanding a guest worker program.

Republican leaders favor a path to legal status, rather than citizenship, for the 11 million adult illegal aliens in this country. That’s a nonstarter for reform advocates, who back the Senate bill’s path to citizenship, though only after a lengthy process.

In the end, any resolution may depend on how badly each party wants a bill, which side is willing to compromise, and by how much. Senate Democrats are insisting so far on their bill’s path to citizenship, while House Republicans flatly oppose it.

But Obama may be open to compromise, given the likelihood he won’t have much else to show legislatively for 2014.

Carl Leubsdorf is the former Washington Bureau chief of The Dallas Morning News. His email address is carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.

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About Carl P. Leubsdorf

Having decided in college that being a reporter would be a lot more interesting than being a tax lawyer, Carl went to Columbia's Graduate School of Journalism and embarked on a journalistic career that so far has lasted from the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower to that of Barack Obama. Before becoming Washington Bureau chief of The Dallas Morning News in 1981, he apprenticed for 15 years at The Associated Press and five at The Baltimore Sun. After a crash course in Texanisms from the late Sam Attlesey, for many years the Political Writer of The News, and the late Jack DeVore, former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's press secretary, he joined The News and spent 28 years presiding over what became one of the best regional bureaus in Washington, while also covering national politics and the White House. He also started writing the column which continues today, following his 2008 retirement as the paper's bureau chief, and has appeared every Thursday since March 1981. In 1982, he married Susan Page, now Washington Bureau chief of USA Today, whom he met on a John Connally campaign bus in 1980. They have two sons, Ben, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, and Will, an aspiring political operative in Washington. Carl also has a son, Carl Jr., a computer whiz, and four stepchildren from his first marriage. Besides politics, he is a fervent sports fan, rooting with mixed success for baseball's New York Yankees and Washington Nationals; football's Washington Redskins; and waiting patiently for hockey's Washington Capitals to win their first Stanley Cup.

Hometown: New York City

Education: BA in Government from Cornell University. Phi Beta Kappa. MS in Journalism from Columbia University.