AGN: Rail lines are cut to Leningrad and a major pocket is in the making. I did not get past lake until turn 10 so a right hook is doable even after turn 10. SHC over strength is low at 3.8 million with 31 units in a pocket and this possible huge pocket forming.

I am the ragdoll russian opponent who has been getting the worst of it here. I had no illusions that this would easy against Pelton. I had 2 prior russian games under my belly and a one self to self game which ended in September 1944. I write this as I am about to receive his Turn 18 MUD.

His opening is nothing until you try to deal with it. I am not a runner and after looking at it I attempted to break the lower pocket with a 900 avf hasty attack on his split reg's. It worked But... He then encircled that and then i had him in a 10 hex snake vice (nice picture to view if Pelton somehow has his it). I failed to put up enough defense( i thought so but even now i can't tell if Pelton had just enough or probably could have beaten maybe another layer: at least early on) and then he cut that off on turn 3. I did try to break the 3rd turn encircle but a single russian attack to test strngth then resulted in support during the second main attack which lost by 10cv. At this point, if i stayed one more turn, he would have had ALL of my southern army. ALL! It was a rout and i began running down south. A new feeling.

I did try and put up as much as possible up North b/c everyone complains you can't hold Lenigrad and I guess I disagree. I know of the 'right hook' and put up nice lines(nothing great though I am not digger expert). On turn 5 or 6 he poked his tanks just around the main line at the river just SE of the lake.. I think i routed 2 of the 3 tank units and had him sqeezed in tight. But for my last move i lowered from 3 to 2 the inf on that single hill hex which is 6 hexes east of the river. It is 2 hexes north of the hill/rail line which supported my southern flank after his break out. His breakout of which the hill was the middle of his 3 wide advance was much larger than i thought(or hoped more likely). Then the pressure built as to which he would go. Then he ended up with his BIG enciclement and that was that. When i weakend the northen line just enough he broke Nourh and has now cut Lenigrad via NW to the PORT. The port itself was not sufficiently defended. Someone will be shot. .

My overall moves i think have too concentrated on trying to get out industry. I totally agree that one should give up the west industry and plan on getting out the big stuff in heathly amounts. It takes away tagets and allows shc a batter chance to defend and counterattack.

I did counter attack plenty. I have about 9-10 routs. In the end I still lost plenty of industry etc and have lousy repair %'s. Some Industry, at this moment, stuck in Moscow.

Which brings me to this lowered russian rr repair chance. At this moment i need one rr hex to be repaired. Which is in my possesion pending turn 18. It's has a fighters chance to stay russian. Stalin woul not be happy if no one went to fix his liittle broken train line. I hope the % of chance of repair is higher near MOSCOW!!

My RR last turn was about 80K. My one secret revealed to Pelton.

At the end of turn 17 his tanks are all going to have very high mp to RR . Maybe, maybe, maybe pleeaase enough to cause delay for him to get in position for the snow turns.

Since my puny army still exists, I also hope it won't need so much industry. lol.

Over-all I am happy. Infantry morale is very high. I did get allot of industry and SHC losses are hvy for a 1.06 game. Brians game play reminds me allot of TDV which really bothers me. Hopefully I can keep SHC under control during Blizzard. TDV only had 3.3 million and wipped me out, but I thk the supply nerf crippled that.

If I survive the blizzard with less then 10 division lost I think I am very much in the drivers set.

AGN: I have cut off Leningrad, but things are a mess and supply really sucks. Air drops will have to be made during mud. It will probably fall, but be during Blizzard in January. Not a sure thing.

His opening is nothing until you try to deal with it. I am not a runner and after looking at it I attempted to break the lower pocket with a 900 avf hasty attack on his split reg's. It worked But... He then encircled that and then i had him in a 10 hex snake vice (nice picture to view if Pelton somehow has his it). I failed to put up enough defense( i thought so but even now i can't tell if Pelton had just enough or probably could have beaten maybe another layer: at least early on) and then he cut that off on turn 3. I did try to break the 3rd turn encircle but a single russian attack to test strngth then resulted in support during the second main attack which lost by 10cv. At this point, if i stayed one more turn, he would have had ALL of my southern army. ALL! It was a rout and i began running down south. A new feeling.

I did try and put up as much as possible up North b/c everyone complains you can't hold Lenigrad and I guess I disagree. I know of the 'right hook' and put up nice lines(nothing great though I am not digger expert). On turn 5 or 6 he poked his tanks just around the main line at the river just SE of the lake.. I think i routed 2 of the 3 tank units and had him sqeezed in tight. But for my last move i lowered from 3 to 2 the inf on that single hill hex which is 6 hexes east of the river. It is 2 hexes north of the hill/rail line which supported my southern flank after his break out. His breakout of which the hill was the middle of his 3 wide advance was much larger than i thought(or hoped more likely). Then the pressure built as to which he would go. Then he ended up with his BIG enciclement and that was that. When i weakend the northen line just enough he broke Nourh and has now cut Lenigrad via NW to the PORT. The port itself was not sufficiently defended. Someone will be shot. .

...

No question that any single goal a German player really wants to get in a focused effort in 1941 is hard to prevent, if not near impossible. If Axis gets diluted with to many cheep to chase, so to speak, and fails to built a proper Schwerpunkt, it is much easier to blunt at least one of its three or four spearheads. The best Axis play seems to focus on Leningrad first, and then concentrate on Moscow after turn 8 or so and leave the North for cleanup by 16th and 18th army and the Finns. With the Lvov opening in place, and no such thing as "light mud" or anything to slow Axis in the open terrain until autumn, AGS usually doesn't need any reinforcements. Everything goes to AGC. Similarly anything the SHC adds to the Southern theater would appear to be just more to feed the pockets. It appears be best to send anything useful to Leningrad and then Moscow. That might be different without a Lvov start, but it is what it is now.

I did not understand why Pelton bullied through on such a tight corridor south of lake Illmen in this game. Yes, that is a tactic that gets you with certainty through heavily defended lines, as you might need it at the start of summer 42, or whenever you have an initial defense to crack later. But it looks slow and cumbersome, connected with casualties and it allowed you (Soviet players) to concentrate easily on his spearheads, built multiple dense lines and counterattack. Summer 41 is not so much about brute force frontal attacks, but maneuver and finding the soft spots. For Axis, it is best not to concentrate Armies or Panzergroups to tightly, but keep some larger frontage and keep it uncertain in which direction you strike (and be flexible about that, too). That is prerequisite for large pockets, and makes life for Soviet defense much much harder as it lacks the means to defend as you did at lake Illmen across the whole frontage.

In this case his frontal attack seemed not like a force-economic move here, and a more direct route would have resolved the problem much faster than going through the Valdai region, that is excellent defensive terrain anyway? He almost made it possible for you to hold it, but ultimately you cannot if he is dead set on it. As he is with his large enveloping move.

Over all if SHC can’t brake open the Moscow pocket its over no question about it. The huge AP loss alone sets up 1942 as an easy summer. SHC blizzard will be very weak an GHC forses will not have to pull back more then 1 hex a turn in December then should be able to hold the lines in January or at least not have to retreat.

SHC also lost allot of industry. With the huge losses in men/industry and AP the game is over or will be in 1942 early 1943 based on VP.

I should be able to house 12 infantry and 12-20 panzer units at least during blizzard, for a very strong summer offensive.

AGN: Leningrad should fall next turn as 3 pz divisions cross the river with 4 more on other side for a total of 7 and they all just HQed up. Should be over next turn.