FORT WORTH, Texas — Brad Keselowski believes he can win the Sprint Cup Series title. And it's not just people who wear the Penske Racing blue in the garage who think he can overcome his two-point deficit over the final three Chase races.

Yes, Jimmie Johnson has five Sprint Cup Series championship trophies at his home. But even though he has the experience of winning titles and performing nearly flawless on the way to winning them, drivers know the reality of racing.

The reality is anything can happen — such as what happened last week when Denny Hamlin had a master control switch fall apart. The reality is that Keselowski has five victories this year and has shown the ability to win races on both fuel strategy and shear strength.

So the pulse in the garage has Johnson as the favorite but Keselowski a strong challenger.

"Brad has put a good fight," said four-time Cup champion Jeff Gordon, who also has an ownership stake in Johnson's car. "If you're putting money down on it, it's hard to go against that No. 48 team. They're just so rock-solid at so many different tracks.

"They've won five championships so it's not like they're nervous. … Brad (is) going for it, basically for the first time, but you know what? They've done a great job. So, it's not just a hands-down one's got it in the bag."

If both Johnson and Keselowski have trouble over the next three races, Clint Bowyer (26 points behind) and Kasey Kahne (29 points behind) could get back into the thick of the race.

Bowyer said Johnson is the favorite because of his history. But Johnson's history also includes not too much success with manipulating fuel mileage. All three of the upcoming racetracks — Texas on Sunday followed by Phoenix and Homestead — have had races where fuel mileage played a pivotal role.

Both Texas and Homestead are 1.5-mile tracks while Phoenix, repaved last year, is a fast but predominately flat 1-mile track.

"It could come down to the last lap, Jimmie runs out of gas and you win the championship," Bowyer said. "There's just so many crazy things that could still happen. We still have a short track with Phoenix.

"We still have these mile-and-a-halves that have been coming down to fuel mileage. That can play a huge role in a championship and the way things play out."

It took Johnson a few years of competing for titles before his string of five consecutive titles from 2006-10, and history shows that typically drivers come close and lose a title before winning one. Then again, nearly every pit call made by Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe has paid off well this year — giving a sense around that team that a 2012 championship is their destiny.

"If I was a betting man, I would bet on the 48," said Martin Truex Jr., who is seventh in the standings. "It's the bet that chances are is going to pay. Keselowski has done good. No doubt. They're in it, but, man, I'm pretty sure he found Jimmie Johnson's (good-luck) horseshoe from a couple of years ago.

"The 48 is so consistent. Fast. Qualifying, practice, race, they do everything really well. … But the 2 (of Keselowski) has been really impressive. Paul Wolfe has been just ridiculous on pit road."

Johnson teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. looks at both drivers as capable of winning the championship but said it would take a team to "do some miraculous stuff to be able to beat" Johnson.

He doesn't say that just because Johnson is his Hendrick Motorsports teammate. He knows there's a good reason why Johnson sat on the pole on his way to winning last week at Martinsville Speedway and sits on the pole again for Sunday's race at Texas.

"Winning five championships in a row isn't done by accident or by luck," Earnhardt said. "I think (Johnson) has got the entire package as far as not only is he one of the best drivers in the series, but he has got possibly one of the smartest minds on his pit box in (crew chief) Chad (Knaus) controlling the entire team."

Keselowski drove for two years in Nationwide for Earnhardt's JR Motorsports before signing a Cup deal with Penske. Now 28, Keselowski is in his third full season of Cup racing and driving a Dodge, which announced during the summer it would not return in 2013. Keselowski starts eighth on the grid Sunday.

"When he got in the Penske stuff, he has not done anything but move forward," Earnhardt said. "I think we kind of forget just how far along that program has come. To be competitive in a Dodge no less, in a manufacturer that has signed its papers leaving the sport, it's impressive.

"He is going to be able to race for a very long time, and for all intents and purposes he should be able to compete like this for years and really enjoy a great career."