Democratization and ethno-nationalist civil war

In recent years, studies have repeatedly shown that countries face a higher risk of inter‐state and civil war during democratization than during other periods in their history. The cause for this elevated risk is often seen in the dynamic of the democratization process, with political leaders as a crucial element. In summary, this dissertation shows that political leaders have a clear influence on the likelihood of civil‐war onset. While they may not be able to prevent the outbreak of violence against the will of determined opponents, it seems clear that they can add fuel to the fire. Unlike suggested by some, this is neither a manipulation nor a diversion in the true sense of these words—the divisive messages broadcast by leaders clear rely on the presence of nationalistic identities and perceptions of a security dilemma.

@phdthesis{democratization-and-ethno-nationalist-civil-war,
title = {Democratization and ethno-nationalist civil war},
author = {Krebs, Lutz-Frederik},
school = {ETH Zurich},
type = {{PhD} dissertation},
doi = {10.3929/ethz-a-006246454},
url = {http://e-collection.library.ethz.ch/view/eth:2184},
year = {2010},
abstract = {In recent years, studies have repeatedly shown that countries face a higher risk of inter-state and civil war during democratization than during other periods in their history. The cause for this elevated risk is often seen in the dynamic of the democratization process, with political leaders as a crucial element. In summary, this dissertation shows that political leaders have a clear influence on the likelihood of civil-war onset. While they may not be able to prevent the outbreak of violence against the will of determined opponents, it seems clear that they can add fuel to the fire. Unlike suggested by some, this is neither a manipulation nor a diversion in the true sense of these words\textemdash the divisive messages broadcast by leaders clear rely on the presence of nationalistic identities and perceptions of a security dilemma.}
}