Ukrainian Gambit

Ukrainian
parliamentary elections are getting closer and closer. On October 28, 2012
Ukraine will have to elect its new “Verkhovna Rada” that consists of 450
members, through new combined proportional and majoritarian (also called “First
Past the Post”) systems. Under the new electoral legislation half of the seats
in Rada will be elected through the former system (party lists), while the rest
of them will be filled through the latter system of elections.

Moreover, the
new legislation provides that the voting barrier to be reached by the party to
be able to get any seats in parliament was raised to 5%, while political blocks
are not able to participate in elections at all anymore – political parties
only.

Considering all
that, when we look at the pre-election situation it seems quite different from
what was to see in 2007. No more there are political forces led by the Vladimir
Litvin or Alexander Moroz with leftist and socialist ideas and at the same time
there are changes in the opposition to the ruling Party of Regions too. Both
most charismatic leaders of the opposition Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko
are serving their sentences in jail due to criminal charges pressed against
them almost a year ago. Hence, the opposition went with the policy of
unification and gathered under the banners of All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland". While the nominal leader of
this Union is still Tymoshenko, it is becoming more obvious that the real
leadership already belongs to Arseniy Yatsenyuk whose party Front of Changes
became a part of the Fatherland in February this year.

Furthermore, there are new players in the game. Famous Ukrainian boxer
Vitaliy Klychko is going to the elections as the leader of his newly developed
party UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform). Almost no one expected
such a pre-election success of that party and it has to be noted that its
currents polls shows 12% of possible votes under the proportional system. Some
experts forecast even 15% as the elections result for this party. Interesting
situation is with another newcomer to the political battleground in Ukraine –
the Party of Natalia Korolevska “Ukraine – Forward!” Though it is still unknown
if this party will be able to reach 5% barrier (current polls less than 4%), it
is still impressive how such a fast-runner could prove so well on the
pre-election stage.

Last but not
least is the participation in the elections of All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda" led by Oleh
Tyahnybok. The Union unites the nationalistic
ideologies of Ukraine and currently believed to be able to pass the voting
barrier and get its seats in parliament. Svoboda is in strong opposition to the
Communist Party of Ukraine that has been steady in its decrease in popularity,
however still able to get enough votes to secure seats in parliament.

From the general outlook to the situation one can see the progress in
the political development in Ukraine in the sense that there are new political
forces on the ground, new coalitions and balances on the table and there seems
to be no stagnation in the ideological matters. However, when analyzing the
situation on the practical level, everything seems quite different.

United opposition Fatherland on the current polls is a little bit
stronger that the Party of Regions on proportional system and they have already
negotiated the representation of the candidates in majoritarian system with
Svoboda. However, there are still hindrances to the opposition in terms of the
unequal opportunities in the pre-election campaigning.

When it comes to UDAR of Klychko and the party of Natalia Korolevska
they tend to position themselves as an opposition to the current government,
however there are some specifics that may indicate that the situation is less
clear. For example, the main financial sources of “Ukraine – Forward!” come
from the circles that are close to the Party of Regions, whereas the party of
Klychko is still unable to reach some kind of agreement with the united
opposition and their allies.

That leaves us with the Party of Regions that has a very interesting
strategy. Apart from their customary coalition with the Communist Party, they
seem to direct attention more to the first past the post candidates rather than
to their party lists. The strategy then will be in form of “Ukrainian Gambit”,
by sacrificing the victory on proportional system to the opposition, while
gaining more seats in parliament through majoritarian system and securing the
dominancy when attracting the possible “swinging parties” like “Ukraine –
Forward!” or even UDAR of Klychko (if unable to reach an agreement with
opposition) to their coalition in the parliament.

Will the ruling Party of
Regions be able to get its ultimate goal of 300 seats in parliament, thus
securing an absolute constitutional majority, remains to be seen. Much will
depend on if the new parties will be willing to make their own gambit and
sacrifice the democracy for the representation in the parliament.

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Doctor Habilitatus / LL.D.(Legum Doctor) in International and Constitutional Law. Scholar/Analyst and an independent expert in international law, conflicts, security and defense. Researcher at Lund University, Sweden.