A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

July 12, 2008

96 comments:

Anonymous
said...

no; but people are starting to tell me: "folks are losing a lot of money in the stock market!" well, those flippers who thought they'd make out like a bandit or those equity loans holders who thought they'd make out like a bandit by investing it in the stock market might be feeling a little heat now!

my grandmother doesn't know what she's going to do this winter if the oil bill keeps going up.

That will be their greatest downfall and grind their REIC community to a screeching HALT.

And who the fuck is still buying 4 dollar lattes?

New MS operating systems? Old one works just fine.

Nordstroms? Yeah...sure.

Boeing? Who needs new planes when routes are being pared to the bone? Sure, they may be able to make a slightly more fuel efficient plane, but if you can't afford to run the airline already...HOW ARE YOU GONNA AFFORD NEW PLANES?

I was watching on the news a bunch of members from the Hussein Obama base getting pissed off because a local charity, which gets donation from farmers/stores and gives away the food, was running low on donations.

You should see all the obese welfare queens complaining on camera that there wasn't enough free food. They had a bunch of kids with them, showing their bags full of baguettes, produce, canned goods, gallons of orange juice, etc. All free but wasn't enough, according to them. They interviewed a fat Hispanic lady full of babies who was bitching in Spanish because she didn't speak any English.

i still see mostly denial in the sf bay area even though prices have declined. tech money has helped people keep the faith. but i do see a lot of people starting to worry about their jobs. when tech stocks start to hurt more the local economy will decline and it will become real. i give it less than a year to get to fear.

I panicked at the end of the euphoria stage...Good thing, too. Closed my brokerage account, sold 2 houses, moved my 401K (the safest thing they had was Mortgage backed securities), bought gold, bought some foreign currency, added my husband's name to all my accounts (FDIC insures them to $200K), paid off the house, planted a garden and bought a Honda CRX. Everything's ok, except the deer ate my green beans.

It's a Wonderful Life Bank Run:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Er69b4HMl8

Fear in the government. Desperation maybe by the election. The general american is at the stage of puzzlement - not really denial. Just clueless. They will hit fear when the government hits desperation, since the government being desperate will send a signal that there is something to fear.

The NYC metro area is still somewhere halfway between denial and fear. There are many retirees eager to sell and downsize, especially on Long Island and Queens. Many of them and their realtores are in denial of the crisis .Asking prices range from $300K-$600K for a 1400 sq ft ranch. Prices vary depending on neighborhood and lot size.

Please visit Long Island Bubble from the links on the right. Prices are creeping down on Long Island, slowly but uncompromisingly. Good luck selling sheeple! With gas at $4.999 more of you will have to leave behind your SUVs and minivans and oooh nooo ride the Long Island BUS with all the illegal aliens and scum...

I work with engineers, generally smart people, very good with numbers, logical thinkers -- but most of 'em don't understand the fundamentals of all this. Some got in trouble with houses. Most don't understand how to prepare for retirement. For lack of wisdom, they haven't focused their intellects on the world of money.

I see some anxiety, some denial...very little apparent fear or panic. Maybe they hide it.

I think most people are somewhere between denial and fear. They can see that there is something terribly wrong with the economy but they don't understand why. They will hit genuine fear once the job losses really ratchet up.

As for the stock market, it will hit real fear in the coming weeks when the financials reprt Q2 losses. The market won't hit panic stage until the bank failures get into full swing.

Western Colorado is still in denial. Loads of angry young men in pick up trucks earning big $$ in the oil patch. Many of them piss away their money on drugs and hookers, but quite a few bought houses way to big for their paychecks using the liar loans. Until they blow out of town (good riddance) the RE people here will continue to claim that our market is "different". Plenty of houses on the market priced over the $417K jumbo loan limit, and they aren't selling.

Gas is $4.25, headed for $5. Several stores and restaurants open 10+ years have closed and the owners mentioned slowing sales. One said he'd seen hard times in the '80s and didn't want to go through all that pain again. The developers for Walgreens (over)paid $1.25M for a store pad site and it looks like that deal is now on hold.

I remember seeing some fat welfare entitlement queen with 10 kids on Oprah. She got $10K of free money a month and a really nice free, new, free house.

She trashed it in less than a year, they showed pictures of it, and she was bitching for more.

Of course she was just knocking out babies and had a sub-100 IQ. Of course she was an amoral wh*re and arrogant fiend.

But this sh*t is what they take 40% of my paycheck for.

I'd rather the Military Industrial Complex got my tax dollars so we can employ some engineers, soldiers and have a strong national defense.

I want these illegal alien, arrogant America haters sent back now!

I want these overfed welfare queen prostitute vultures to put on a Burger King cap and start serving me fries instead of sitting on their fat asses screaming for more government sh*t and threatening to burn down LA if they don't get what they want.

If the Red Chinese Communist People's Liberation Army hit our shores tomorrow and threw these welfare slobs a chicken in their pot, they'd be on their knees for the commies.

They own no allegiance accept to their overfed, fat bellies. They probably don't even love their kids accept for the fact that each one is good for some more food stamps and an extra $100 to blow on cigs and a new TV to watch the Jerry Spring show.

Go to Walmart and see them swarming like...well, you know like what.

Think I'm making it up?

Watch old footage of the LA riots of the early '90s.

If it were to happen again in LA, it would be ten times worse because they've got ten times more third-world, illegal scum down there now.

Yeah, I'm voting for FEAR this last week: oddly enough, we haven't seen the panic selling on Wall Street, and the volumes have been relatively light, without the massive sell-offs in capitulation stage.

The VIX (volatility index)has remained low, and people don't know what to expect, but aren't panicking (yet). Gold has moved up, but it's still well below it's recent peak in Feb.

When we see a 400-point plunge in the market, with massive volume selling, THEN we'll be in a confirmed panic mode. This might occur as soon as this week on Monday, once the double-whammy of IndyMac bank failure AND talk of takeover of Freddie/Fannie start to hit people's consciousness.

HOWEVER, the market has such a strong intrinsic bias to the upside, you have to be REALLY CAREFUL betting against the trend: as quickly as the market can fall, the relief rallies can be quick, too! It's amazing that people try to catch falling knives by buying into the financials, but then as they say, the great motivators are greed and fear: no one can resist a "bargain" (even if the thing doesn't have a snowball's chance of returning a ROI).

South Florida will remain in a permanent state of denial. In my development, there are two foreclosures. Both FB's are trying to short sale their houses. Both are about $150,000 under water. Both are still asking above market prices. There are six other houses for sale in the neighborhood, with almost a $150,000 range, from $350,000 to $500,000. So, yes, there are many FB's that think they should get 2005 prices.

The problem with MANY FB's is that they are so underwater in their houses, they can't lower their prices, or if they want to try and short sell, the banks won't let them. That's why you have one house selling for $350,000 and down the street another similar house selling for $450,000. It's absurd.

Keith, if you really want to see something shocking, go to this site by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

We hung onto Denial for forever, and according to Phil Gramm, we're losers for not staying there. But thank god people are truly not dumber than oxes and have moved to FEAR. You can tell by the fewer people in the malls, restaurants and driving on the streets. Albeit there are even SUV's too. People are definitely in the FEAR stage and I agree with "John 9:13 am" that PANIC isn't too far away. It took forever to get out of Denial and now we are going to hyper drive into Panic.

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No way man! We are still between denial and fear. Panic won't occur until the end of the spring market in 09. Right now % rates are still low. As they rise monthly payments will as well. That will make homes even more unaffordable, and cause a negative impact on pricing. Desperation should occur in around 2010, when I plan on buying a bunch of cash flow cookie cutter townhomes at significant discounts. Then the market should remain flat for the next 5 to 7 years. Good news on housing won't occur until 2015 or so. As an investor this will be the best buying opportunity of my lifetime. The smart ones will capitalize on desperation. You will just have to play the landlord game for a while till you can sell for a profit.

my grandmother doesn't know what she's going to do this winter if the oil bill keeps going up.

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do what all americans do these days...demand the government help 'em out. barack will give her free oil along with free health care, free house, free car. everything will be free in obamaland. no need to worry just blindly vote for socialists and all will be well, i promise.

My favorite thing about HP is idiots here who give financial advice and don't know the difference between the price of oil and the price of gas. Kinda like when I hear morons talk about reducing the debt and are really talking about the deficit or vice versa.

So please I'm sitting on pins and needles, what other fantastic advice to you have for me?

The average state is in FEAR right now...however "special" Seattle is still in denial.

"It won't happen here...its too beautiful""So many people want to live here""We have Boeing / MS/ Amazon/ REI/ Nordstrom/ Starbucks""We have limited space for development""My RE agent told me we are at bottom""We have the most educated work force in the country""The views are to die for""Our downtown is hip""There are a lot of MS millionaires here"

Don't underestimate the public's ability to hang on to Denial. I was listening to Kudlow on the radio this morning, and he said he thought being an optimist was "doing the Lord's work" (yes, he actually said that).

We still haven't even arrived at Fear yet. It may get here next week, but PANIC is nowhere in sight.

The Feds went into Panic stage last summer, but only showed "Concern" to the public and conveyed "Confidence" to us so the American people would not panic...and they are still doing this today. They know how fucked we are but won't say it b/c they don't want Panic!

The people are somewhere between Denial and Fear, though certainly some us are in Panic...and hopefully making a lot of money from this situation by shorting relevant stocks, and buying commodities and forex.

Don't know when Panic will come. Even if Fed and Fran tank next week, I'm not sure this will send the country into Panic since I think joe sixpack's psychology is driven primarily by unemployment and inflation. As long as these numbers look good -- that is, there's still no major impact on them like losing their jobs -- I think they will remain in ignorance or denial. The real inflation rate (not the lies the govt. publishes) could move joe sixpack bit into the fear stage but I'm not sure it's enough to cause him to panic.

I think we have a ways to go before true general Panic sets in, but it could be right around the corner given the way the financials are going. If there are runs on the commercial banks then there will be panic, especially if Citi and other big ones start to go under.

At minimum, Panic will definitely be here in Fall 2009 or Spring 2010 when all those Option ARMs and ALT A's start resetting. We are already screwed today, but we will be categorically screwed once these toxic loans rear their ugly heads.

"Boeing? Who needs new planes when routes are being pared to the bone? Sure, they may be able to make a slightly more fuel efficient plane, but if you can't afford to run the airline already...HOW ARE YOU GONNA AFFORD NEW PLANES?"

Planes always need to be replaced just like cars or anything else.

The new 787 is projected to have a 20% fuel savings. That's huge. With $150/bbl or $250/bbl oil, the plane would eventually pay for itself.

"And who the fuck is still buying 4 dollar lattes?"

No one, that's why Harbucks is closing 600 stores.

"Amazon? I can go to the damn library."

Amazon sells a lot more than books. The library rarely has the popular titles on the shelf.

WA state exports more than any other state. It has the 2nd largest port in the country. WA state will far better than most of the rest of the country.

Anon July 12, 2008 5:21 PM:"My favorite thing about HP is idiots here who give financial advice and don't know the difference between the price of oil and the price of gas."

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Considering gas is already $4.50/gal in many places, given the tense 3:16 PM used I'd say he's talking about oil, either crude or fuel oil (though I think even off-road diesel's above $4.50).

$4.50/gal puts crude at $189/bbl. Which will mean gas prices of at least $5.30 for regular, and close to $6 for premium in places like California.

Hopefully the standard digital pumps are capable of handling prices above $9.999/gal, otherwise there won't be any gas for sale at all. It looks like in the early part of next decade we're going to find out one way or the other.

Sacramento, despite the plunging house prices, is still in denial but edging closer to fear. A few knife-catchers have entered the market, so "everything's all OK now." There are reportedly "multiple offers" on houses less than 250K.

Meanwhile, I am comparing prices to the rent I pay and I still can't get the numbers to work out. I can't figure out who is buying these places.

People seem to think that inflation is going to keep the price of their home from going down any further, but that only works if wages keep up with inflation. I don't know how incomes in Sacramento are going to go up when the largest employer in the area (the State) is 15B in the hole. State workers lucky enough to keep their jobs will have to absorb the 4.75 gas cost on their own without a cost-of-living raise. Those who lose their jobs will be leaving the area or flooding the local market with low-cost labor.

By the way, wings, I don't need to watch old footage of the LA Riots because I was there. What I recall is all the otherwise reasonable people who had opinions like yours before the riots. Let's see, an economic downturn plus open contempt towards the struggling poor and working classes.... It's easy to talk about rioting in the streets if you haven't lived through it.

Anyone who thinks that they will be able to hold off a riot with guns, canned goods, and water might want to talk to some former Korean grocers from South LA.

As many astute observers have already reported, there still is a lot of denial out there - unbelievable. I live in Tampa and have been very actively looking at real estate recently. I'm a renter who mistakenly thought there would be some really good deals out there by now. Frustratingly, valuations in my area are still way too high even after a reported 17% drop in prices. There might be an inkling of panic by a few desperate homeowners who bought in the boonies a few years ago, but still it's spotty at best. The biggest obstacle for me, however, is outrageous property taxes. It's been a number of years since I last owned a house, and I just can't believe how much property taxes have gone up (not to mention how expensive insurance has become). Either taxes and insurance are going to have to fall A LOT, or house prices are going to have to drop significantly. I highly doubt that insurance and taxes will fall by much, if any - so guess what has to happen.... And by the way, I have a good income, easily able to make a 25% down payment, and 0 debt. So if I'm not buying yet then who is?????

"Let's see, an economic downturn plus open contempt towards the struggling poor and working classes...."

Or maybe open contempt from the "struggling poor" for pesky notions like laws and morality? People like you who rationalize lawless behavior are just amazing. It's always someone else's fault and there's never any room for personal responsibility. Crawl back into your hole douche.

I think the government and the Fed are in Panic mode right now trying to figure out how to hold all this shit together for another 4 months until the election (BTW - they can't).

I think the news regarding Fannie and Freddie are HUGE and will have an enormous negative impact on the markets and housing this next week. I'm just waiting with baited breath to see what their plan is to help the GSEs on Monday (whatever it is, it won't work).

I would have to say it is between denial and fear here in southern CT. I rent in Greenwich, and most people here have plenty of financial cushion. That said, the news has been advertising that the local food bank is running low on inventory due to a large increase in demand. If this is happening in an area with one on the highest median incomes in the country, we are truly screwed...

Here in SD, the near epicenter (with Phoenix and LV), we now have knife catchers trying to snap up condos at "great" prices. . .sure, a 500K one bedroom now selling for 300K sounds good, but Pets.com sounded good at $50 when it had been $200!!. . .there is some panic in the working class neighborhoods, where every 5th house is in foreclosure, but in the upper-middle class areas, people think the market will come back in a year. . .but. . .unemployed people don't buy houses, and SD has a "service economy" (and of course the Navy, but they don't earn enough to buy a house). . .the airport is going through 10 to 15% flight reductions in September, and the hotels are already hurting. . .restaurants are hanging in by a thread. . .it's going to be a long cold winter (as cold as it gets here).

"Let's see, an economic downturn plus open contempt towards the struggling poor and working classes...."

This is different than open contempt for fat useless people that do nothing but eat and watch Oprah and still manage to bitch that 40% of my hard-earned paycheck goes into a pool of funds that I have no control over that gets distributed to fat useless bitchy people. I'm with tv news; can it, douche.

You would think the causes for trepidation would be extremely obvious to all, but we just got a letter today from a CFA advising us that real estate was the best performing market class and ..what couldn't he guide us to a more rational perspective?

This is the danger of over-speculation, especially with housing, prices go way beyond the reach of the majority of incomes.

When the majority of income earners are having problems servicing their loans, that's when things get really nasty - we're at the beginning of that point now.

This entire thing is like one ugly soap-opera playing out.

More and more houses up for sale/forclosure here in HB Ca., and I'm sure San Diego is no better - one more over-speculated region about to face some hard reality in market pricing.

Mark in San Diego said... Here in SD, the near epicenter (with Phoenix and LV), we now have knife catchers trying to snap up condos at "great" prices. . .sure, a 500K one bedroom now selling for 300K sounds good, but Pets.com sounded good at $50 when it had been $200!!. . .there is some panic in the working class neighborhoods, where every 5th house is in foreclosure, but in the upper-middle class areas, people think the market will come back in a year. . .but. . .unemployed people don't buy houses, and SD has a "service economy" (and of course the Navy, but they don't earn enough to buy a house). . .the airport is going through 10 to 15% flight reductions in September, and the hotels are already hurting. . .restaurants are hanging in by a thread. . .it's going to be a long cold winter (as cold as it gets here).

I'm in Las Vegas and I swear, it's still just "denial", but my friends in CA are starting to hear "fear" at the door. What is it going to take anyway. I'm starting to see dried up front yards in LV, probably somebody about to bail.

"my grandmother doesn't know what she's going to do this winter if the oil bill keeps going up"

I i'll make a prophecy that gradma will sell her place and move in with you or one of her friends....sorry but no guarantees she can stay in ther house until she dies. this of course will add another house to the inventory.

my grandmother doesn't know what she's going to do this winter if the oil bill keeps going up.

Move down south where the cost of living is cheaper?

I always tell everyone to move to Seattle and Portland, OR. I tell them that everyone is rich over there and they live in a paradise. Oh, and by people I mean lots of Hispanics, illegals, Californians, etc. You guys who live in those two cities will have lots of company in the next few years.

Keith, you've got to make a separate thread for this article. It shows how US is worse than just "normal" socialism, because it is socialism tilted to solely benefit the corporatocracy/super-rich. "Privatization of profits, sozialication of losses"...and we all US tax payers once again fell for it.

"There are many forms of socialism. The version practiced in the US is the most deceitful one I know. An honest, courageous socialist government would say: this is a worthwhile social purpose (financing home ownership, helping my friends on Wall Street); therefore I am going to subsidize it; and here are the additional taxes (or cuts in other public spending) to finance it.

Instead the dishonest, spineless socialist policy makers in successive Democratic and Republican admininstrations have systematically tried to hide both the subsidies and size and distribution of the incremental fiscal burden associated with the provision of these subsidies, behind an endless array of opaque arrangements and institutions. Off-balance-sheet vehicles and off-budget financing were the bread and butter of the US federal government long before they became popular in Wall Street and the City of London."

QUOTE 2:

"So let’s call a spade a bloody shovel: nationalise Freddie Mac and Fannie May. They should never have been privatised in the first place. Cost the exercise. Increase taxes or cut other public spending to finance the exercise. But stop pretending. Stop lying about the financial viability of institutions designed to hand out subsidies to favoured constituencies. These GSEs were designed to make losses. They are expected to make losses. If they don’t make losses they are not serving their political purpose.

So I call on Secretary Paulson, Chairman Bernanke and Director Lockhart to drop the market-friendly fig-leaf. Be a socialist and proud of it. Come out of the red closet. The Soviet Union may have collapsed, but the cause of socialism is alive and well in the USA. Granted, the US version of socialism is imperfect thus far. The federal authorities have mainly intervened to socialise the losses in the financial sector while allowing the profits to continue to be drained off into selected private pockets. But that is bound to be an oversight. It surely cannot be the intention of such committed Marxists to target taxpayer-funded largesse solely at the very rich and at a few favoured, electorally sensitive constituencies. Fannie and Freddie are, or will be, safe in the hands of comrades Paulson, Bernanke and Lockhart."

Jz2tduncThe number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels -- reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day -- DataQuick said in a report, warning that the widening foreclosure problem could "spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans.

Jz2tduncThe number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels -- reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day -- DataQuick said in a report, warning that the widening foreclosure problem could "spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans.

Living in boston area. No one I know has lost their job, except for one airhead who fell victim to a merger but immediately found a similar job. Friends, family and I chuckle about our 401k losses and falling home prices and soaring property taxes and heating costs to make ourselves feel better about it, but everyone still believes all will right itself eventually.

Heating oil costs this winter might start to drive us down the slope quickly, especially if it spikes towards $6 or $7 per gallon.

Here's a good one for a new thread Keith! I would say this one is right at ANGER!

I just read where some A-hole went to sell his flip-hovel, and shot his original realtor to death when a second realtor told the 73 year old fliptard that his millstone was worth less than he paid for it a couple years ago.

Kind of like the dumbasses shooting their stockbrokers during the Dotcom melt down.

http://tinyurl.com/62qfej

This was the original article, follow-ups started to fill in the details!

I can see this snow balling with copycats. Next it will be the sheriff’s deputies getting taken down when they come a-knocking!

We have definitely passed denial, as only fools won't acknowledge that it could become really bad. Is it only fear or already desperation? I tend to the former, but with a bail-out of Fannie and Freddie being tried and, probably, failing, we would securely be in desperation and maybe already in panic - Fannie and Freddie were seen as rock solid outside housing bubble blogs, with their lon rates only a few basis points above treasuries.

You and other here are so typical of the crybaby atmosphere. You work for someone else and complain you don't get enough. Work for yourself instead and you won't believe how much better it is. Even if you don't make significantly more money, just knowing your future is determined your you and not someone else is priceless.

I have seen people lose their home because they wouldn't lower the price

One example in Rancho Mirage, Ca. A home listed for $1.195m. They had purchased it for $900k two years ago, they owed $730k on it.They wanted every dime of that $1.195The bank took it and sold it for the amount of the loan $730k

The banks are still in denial. I tried to buy a REO on the 17th hole and the bank demanded the full price of the 100% LTV mortgage that was taken out in 2005 with no room for negotiations. I said see ya. I bet the house will be sitting empty for another two years. Idiot bankers.