Tag: global

The impact of tumultuous geopolitical affairs on global growth is one of the biggest concerns for the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF). Speaking to CNBC on the eve of this year’s forum in Davos, Switzerland, WEF President Borge Brende said geopolitical conflicts could damage global growth. “There are many things that concern me but I would say that those geopolitical conflicts can, if not handled the right way, can have a negative impact on growth,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sun

The impact of tumultuous geopolitical affairs on global growth is one of the biggest concerns for the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Speaking to CNBC on the eve of this year’s forum in Davos, Switzerland, WEF President Borge Brende said geopolitical conflicts could damage global growth.

“There are many things that concern me but I would say that those geopolitical conflicts can, if not handled the right way, can have a negative impact on growth,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday.

“We’re already seeing a slowing of global growth with the negative impact that will have on a lot of people around the world, also when it comes to creating jobs. We’re not out of the woods when it comes to jobs, for example in Europe many countries are still facing 20 percent youth unemployment,” he noted.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum. The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months. In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and th

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum.

The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde said: “After two years of solid expansion, the world economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising. But even as the economy continues to move ahead … it is facing significantly higher risks.”

In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and the United States. It said the latest revision is due in part to carry over from last year, mentioning weakness for German auto manufacturers due to new fuel emission standards, and soft domestic demand in Italy after recent sovereign and financial risks. But the IMF also highlighted weakening sentiment in the global financial markets and a contraction in Turkey that’s now projected to be deeper than anticipated.

According to the Fund, advanced economies have been on a declining path in terms of growth and this is taking place more rapidly than previously thought. These countries are forecast to grow 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2020.

At the same time, there’s also been a growth slowdown in emerging economies. The IMF projects a 4.5 percent growth rate in 2019, from 4.6 percent in 2018, before improving to 4.9 percent in 2020.

That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017. “What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in the economy,” Chen said. On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent inOct-Dec from 1.6 percent in the preceding period. China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data onMonday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retailsale

China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

Growing signs of weakness in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for the economy this year to reduce the risk of massive job losses, but they have ruled out a “flood” of stimulus like that which Beijing has unleashed in the past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the world’s second-largest economy to have grown 6.4 percent in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, slowing from the previous quarter’s 6.5 percent pace and matching levels last seen in early 2009 during the global financial crisis.

That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.

With stimulus measures expected to take some time to kick in, most analysts believe conditions in China are likely to get worse before they get better, and see a further slowdown to 6.3 percent this year. Some analysts believe real growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggest.

Even if China and the United States agree on a trade deal in current talks, which is a tall order, analysts said it would be no panacea for the sputtering Chinese economy unless Beijing can galvanize weak investment and consumer demand.

Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said investors should not expect the latest round of stimulus to produce similar results as during the 2008-09 global crisis, when Beijing’s huge spending package quickly boosted growth.

“What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in the economy,” Chen said.

On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent inOct-Dec from 1.6 percent in the preceding period.

China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data onMonday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retailsales and fixed-asset investment.

Since China’s quarterly GDP readings tend to be unusually steady, most investors prefer to focus on recent trends.

Surprising contractions in December trade data and factory activity gauges in recent weeks have suggested the economy cooled more quickly than expected at the end of 2018, leaving it on shakier footing at the start of the new year.

Sources have told Reuters that Beijing was planning tolower its growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from around 6.5 percent in 2018.

Netflix beat on earnings, but missed on revenues — Here’s what six experts say to watch now 55 Mins Ago | 05:18Netflix shares fell Friday after the company reported mixed earnings, beating on subscriber growth but missing on revenue. Most major analysts remained mostly bullish on international growth just days after the streaming giant raised prices. Netflix said it add 8.8 million global paid memberships last quarter, 1.2 million more than estimated. Several firms including Goldman Sachs, J.P.

Netflix beat on earnings, but missed on revenues — Here’s what six experts say to watch now 55 Mins Ago | 05:18

Netflix shares fell Friday after the company reported mixed earnings, beating on subscriber growth but missing on revenue. But the stock will soon recover if major analysts are to be believed.

The shares dropped 3.9 percent, trading at $339.21, after making an attempt shortly after the opening bell to trade in the green.

Most major analysts remained mostly bullish on international growth just days after the streaming giant raised prices. Netflix said it add 8.8 million global paid memberships last quarter, 1.2 million more than estimated.

As the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos approaches, a new survey of over 800 CEOs has revealed that global business leaders see recession as their number one external concern for 2019. Threats to global trade and political instability ranked second and third, respectively, according to the survey Thursday by the research group The Conference Board. The recession risk was touted as the number one concern in Japan, China and Latin America but was only placed third by American executives. Trade

As the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos approaches, a new survey of over 800 CEOs has revealed that global business leaders see recession as their number one external concern for 2019.

Threats to global trade and political instability ranked second and third, respectively, according to the survey Thursday by the research group The Conference Board.

The recession risk was touted as the number one concern in Japan, China and Latin America but was only placed third by American executives. In the U.S. threats to cybersecurity was listed as the source of greatest unease with new competitors second.

Trade barriers between the U.S. and China have created fears that a full-blown trade war could derail economies around the world. However, among the C-suite executives questioned in China, trade troubles ranked second while in the United States it came as low as fourth.

With 178 million followers across its Chinese social media channels, the NBA also boasts the highest following of any sports league in that particular market. “Social media is a way we’ve been able to infiltrate those markets very quickly with young people in particular living on social media,” said Silver. Obviously Facebook is enormous in India and Instagram and these other services that feature the NBA to combine social media.” The NBA distributes its games and programming in 215 countries an

As revealed in CNBC’s new show “The Score,” the NBA’s Commissioner Adam Silver said “We realize the U.S. is a little less than four or five percent of the global population and we have a whole world out there that loves basketball and loves the NBA.”

According to figures produced by the NBA, over 300 million people play basketball in China, with more than double that number watching some part of its programming on television during the 2017/18 season. With 178 million followers across its Chinese social media channels, the NBA also boasts the highest following of any sports league in that particular market.

“Social media is a way we’ve been able to infiltrate those markets very quickly with young people in particular living on social media,” said Silver. “They’re following player’s individual feeds. Obviously Facebook is enormous in India and Instagram and these other services that feature the NBA to combine social media.”

The NBA distributes its games and programming in 215 countries and territories and in fifty languages. More than 30 percent of all its “NBA league pass” subscriptions are in Asia — offering fans access to on-demand content and the live streaming of games.

Boosting this popularity is digital coverage by tech firms, such as China’s Tencent and Japan’s Rakuten that have played a key role in NBA becoming a mainstay in Asian sports culture.

The world is facing the increased risk of political confrontations between major powers, which is hindering solutions to challenges like climate change and cyberattacks, a new report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) said Wednesday. WEF, best known for creating and facilitating its annual economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the breakdown of international cooperation on major issues had reached “crisis levels,” and would continue to prevent international action on urgent crises this year.

The world is facing the increased risk of political confrontations between major powers, which is hindering solutions to challenges like climate change and cyberattacks, a new report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) said Wednesday.

WEF, best known for creating and facilitating its annual economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, said the breakdown of international cooperation on major issues had reached “crisis levels,” and would continue to prevent international action on urgent crises this year.

The WEF report, called the Global Risks Report 2019 and released with risk consultancy Marsh, surveyed around 1,000 experts and decision-makers with 90 percent saying they expected further economic confrontation between major powers. Eighty-eight percent said they expected further erosion of multilateral trading rules.

China’s Xiaomi, once dubbed the “Apple of China,” is in the middle of a months-long rout and facing familiar headwinds in the global smartphone market. The stock has shed 25 percent this year, plummeting to all-time lows and trading below 10 Hong Kong dollars. The company’s market cap now hovers around HK$240 billion ($30 billion). Xiaomi, founded in 2010 in Beijing, rose to impressive market share among global competitors such as Huawei, Samsung and Apple. The company went public on Hong Kong e

Xiaomi, founded in 2010 in Beijing, rose to impressive market share among global competitors such as Huawei, Samsung and Apple. It markets high-quality devices at comparatively lower prices and has more recently diversified its business to include other connected devices and services revenue.

The company went public on Hong Kong exchanges in July at an implied valuation of US$54 billion, but now trades more than 50 percent below all-time highs. The stock has posted only one month of gains since debuting.

Expectations for a decreased oil supply, potential Chinese stimulus and political uncertainty are buoying hopes for gains in the commodities sector, according to Goldman Sachs. Jeff Curries, global head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Wednesday that the bank is bullish on commodities oil and gold for several reasons, ranging from the Federal Reserve signalling it will hike rates less aggressively than expected and a weakening dollar. “We’re bullish on commodities,” Goldman

Expectations for a decreased oil supply, potential Chinese stimulus and political uncertainty are buoying hopes for gains in the commodities sector, according to Goldman Sachs.

Jeff Curries, global head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Wednesday that the bank is bullish on commodities oil and gold for several reasons, ranging from the Federal Reserve signalling it will hike rates less aggressively than expected and a weakening dollar.

“We’re bullish on commodities,” Goldman’s Currie told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche. “One, because you don’t have the rising (interest) rates anymore and in fact, they’ve come off and they’re on pause. Two, the dollar’s really strong and likely to weaken from here as opposed to strengthen like it did last year.” A weaker dollar makes oil more attractive as oil is denominated in dollars.

Oil markets got a welcome boost when OPEC and its friends decided to cut supply again in December, another push is coming from news of Chinese economic stimulus that could propel demand. Oil prices rose 3 percent overnight on expectations that production cuts will tighten supply. On Wednesday midday, Brent futures stood at $60.37 per barrel and WTI at $51.70.

Currie added that a predicted rise in Chinese demand and falling global oil supply also added to the bullish outlook for oil.

“China has given notice that it’s stimulating (its economy) and then you have OPEC ready to cut production,” he said, speaking to CNBC at Goldman’s global strategy conference in London.

China’s central bank injected a net 560 billion yuan ($83 billion) into the banking system on Wednesday, the highest ever recorded for a single day, in a sign that it’s willing to inject liquidity into a slowing economy. Chinese economic growth is driving higher oil demand.

Interest rate futures markets are pricing in no further U.S. rate hikes in 2019. The euro gained 0.1 percent on the greenback to $1.1485, while the Canadian dollar strengthened by 0.15 percent to C$1.3270. But other analysts expect the pound will take a major beating if May loses the vote by a wide margin. “Losing by 100 or more votes is a major defeat but there’s some talk that she could lose by 200 votes. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar and kiwi dollar, both considered proxies for global risk

The dollar weakened on Tuesday on heightened expectations the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising rates this year due to a slowdown in global growth, while sterling edged up ahead of Britain’s parliamentary vote on its Brexit plan.

Worries over the U.S. economy losing steam as well as a shock contraction in Chinese trade have fanned worries about a sharp global slowdown, which will likely keep the Fed from tightening monetary policy further this year.

The dollar index weakened by 0.12 percent to 95.48.

“There is a strong dislike for the dollar given Fed expectations, but at the same time there is not a compelling replacement,” said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. “Over the next 6-12 months, the dollar should trend lower.”

Interest rate futures markets are pricing in no further U.S. rate hikes in 2019.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank has the ability to be patient on monetary policy given that inflation remains stable.

The euro gained 0.1 percent on the greenback to $1.1485, while the Canadian dollar strengthened by 0.15 percent to C$1.3270.

Sterling will be in focus as British Prime Minister Theresa May must win a vote in parliament later on Tuesday to get her Brexit deal approved or risk a chaotic exit for Britain from the European Union. The numbers are not in May’s favour and her chances of winning the vote look extremely slim. May needs to secure 318 votes to win.

Sterling gained 0.3 percent to $1.2901 ahead of the vote.

“Interestingly, speculators have been betting that this outcome could lead to a possible delay to Brexit from 29 March to July (after the EU Parliament elections in May) to allow for fresh elections or a second referendum,” Philip Wee, currency strategist at DBS, said in a note.

But other analysts expect the pound will take a major beating if May loses the vote by a wide margin.

“Losing by 100 or more votes is a major defeat but there’s some talk that she could lose by 200 votes. A major loss will lead to a knee jerk decline in GBP that could take GBP/USD below 1.25 and EUR/GBP above 91 cents,” said Kathy Lien, managing director of currency strategy at BK Asset Management in a note.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar and kiwi dollar, both considered proxies for global risk appetite, were up 0.2 percent each, having recovered from Monday’s lows.

Sentiment was aided by a fresh round of commitments from Chinese policymakers to stimulate their economy though fiscal and monetary steps.

The Aussie was at $0.7213, while the kiwi dollar fetched $0.6833.

The Aussie dollar has stabilized above the $0.72 level and most analysts think it points to Chinese growth likely bottoming out in the next few quarters.

Given the sharp slowdown in economic activity and the negative impact of the U.S.-Sino trade dispute on the Chinese economy, analysts are hopeful that leaders of the two countries will reach a comprehensive trade deal in the coming weeks.

Trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies had rattled financial markets for most of last year.