ALL EYES ON UKRAINE: The New York Times’ Steven Erlanger in Kiev — “Ukraine’s besieged interim government raced to head off violence that might set off a Russian invasion of its eastern provinces on Sunday, recruiting wealthy eastern businessmen to become provincial governors in an effort to dampen secessionist sentiment there. As complete Russian control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula became a reality on Sunday, with Western officials reporting that thousands more Russian troops were flowing into the region, worries mounted in Kiev that the mostly ethnic-Russian east could be next to fall." http://nyti.ms/1eQe0Ad

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SANCTIONS ON THE TABLE: POLITICO’s Doug Palmer and Eric Bradner — “U.S. companies on Sunday nervously watched rapidly unfolding events in Ukraine, worried tens of billions of dollars in trade and investment could be adversely affected unless Russian President Vladimir Putin reverses course on a decision to invade his country’s much smaller neighbor … Depending on what actions were imposed, that could threaten over $38.2 billion in two-way trade between Russia and the United States. In addition, U.S. companies have close to $10 billion invested in the country, much of that in the mining, manufacturing and banking sectors.” http://politi.co/1pS7ulH

UKRAINE TENSIONS HIT MARKETS: Wall Street Journal— “Investors rushed into safe-haven assets and cut their exposure to stocks as an escalating crisis in Ukraine sent a chill through global markets.” http://on.wsj.com/1eJgiFW

G-7 CONDEMNS RUSSIA, STOPS WORK ON G-8 SOCHI SUMMIT: “We are united in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its right to choose its own future.”

FEBRUARY JOBS REPORT PREVIEW — The February jobs report comes out Friday and it will provide some critical data ahead of the next Federal Reserve FOMC policy setting meeting later this month. There were weaker-than-expected payroll figures in both December and January — a lot of which has been attributed to the spell of severe weather we’ve had this winter — and economists predict that weather will once again weigh down February numbers, though presumably not as heavily as in the last two jobs reports. Two things to keep in mind:

The weather factor: Deutsche Bank's senior U.S. economist Carl Riccadonna, who is predicting around 150,000 jobs added in February and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent, tells MM:

“One of the first things we’ll look at if we get an outlier number is the weather worker series that we’ve been talking about — people who couldn’t show up for their jobs because of inclement weather, people worked reduced hours due to inclement weather. Also we can look at weather sensitive employment series like construction and retail that tend to be impacted by weather.”

Riccadonna is also predicting a possible “payback” in the coming months: “In the past, when we’ve seen periods of severe weather, it does not destroy demand. It just delays demand. In other words, it creates pent up demand. So if you were planning on buying a new car in January and the car dealerships were snowed over, it doesn’t mean you get to February and March and you don’t want a car anymore. You’ve just delayed your purchase. While we can see some soft economic data early in the quarter, we’ll be due for a payback.”

Fed taper — The February report will play a consequential role when FOMC members meet March 18-19 to decide whether to continue pulling back on QE. Economists MM spoke to were generally skeptical that the central bank will either hit pause or slow down its current pace of reducing asset purchases by $10 billion each month. In other words, it would take some seriously bad numbers on Friday for the Fed to change course.

PNC’s chief economist Stu Hoffman, who is predicting about 170,000 jobs added in February and a 6.7 percent unemployment rate:

“If we have a really weak number and it wasn’t just in construction but was in services and pretty much across the board, which is harder to explain away by the weather, then you could have people saying, three straight months of weak job numbers even adjusted to the weather — looks like the economy’s lost some momentum. And that could have some implications for the Fed holding up tapering in March. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

OBAMA TRIMS CFTC BUDGET REQUEST: The budget request that President Barack Obama sends to Congress Tuesday will request $280 million for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in fiscal 2015 — a $65 million increase from its current budget but less than the $315 million he proposed last year. The news Friday alarmed financial reform advocates and left others wondering why the White House scaled back its aspirations.

The agency took on many new responsibilities to oversee the swaps market under the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, and CFTC officials have long warned that they need more resources. Last year, former CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler announced staff furloughs because the agency’s budget was so tight.

The decision to cut the budget request is “wrong by every measure and a disservice to the American people,” Better Markets President Dennis Kelleher said. “It is bad policy, politics, economics and sends the wrong message.”

EXPECT MORE CFTC NEWS THIS WEEK: The CFTC will be in the spotlight on the Hill this week as chairman nominee Timothy Massad and commissioner nominees Sharon Bowen and J. Christopher Giancarlo testify at the Senate Agriculture Committee Thursday. At the same time in the House, CFTC Acting Chairman Mark Wetjen will testify on the agency’s budget.

** Let’s talk credit card security: While there are 5.6 billion credit and debit cards in circulation in the U.S., only 15 to 20 million (or 0.25% of those) are highly secure chip cards — issued mainly to people who frequently travel overseas. Here’s what you need to know about PIN and Chip: http://bit.ly/1fOHt29 **

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – MJ Lee on the House Financial Services Committee Democrats’ recent retreat. … Zachary Warmbrodt with the latest on the House flood insurance bill. … To learn more about Pro's subscriber-only coverage -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. -- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

GOOD MONDAY MORNING — In case you didn’t stay up, “The Wolf of Wall Street” was snubbed at the Oscars. Tomorrow your regular Morning Money host Ben White is back in the driver’s seat. You can reach him at bwhite@politico.com and @morningmoneyben.

DRIVING THE DAY —Federal offices are closed because of snow … Treasury Acting Deputy Secretary Mary Miller, CFTC Acting Chairman Mark Wetjen, Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg are scheduled to speak at the Institute of International Bankers conference in Washington … ISM manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

HOUSE TO VOTE ON FLOOD INSURANCE BILL: The House this week is scheduled to vote on a bill designed to shield homeowners from premium increases in the National Flood Insurance Program. A revised draft of a bill was posted Friday night, following negotiations between Republicans and Democrats including Reps. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.).

Banks and realtors back the legislation. Expect opposition votes from Republicans and Democrats who are concerned that the bill doesn’t make financial sense for the program, which is $24 billion in debt. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) has written a “dear colleague” letter urging members to oppose the bill.

PAPER: FED’ S FORWARD GUIDANCE CREATING INSTABILITY — NYT’s Binyamin Appelbaum: “When the Federal Reserve first talked about tapering last summer, investors responded like startled animals. Interest rates jumped; stocks dropped. It took months for the Fed to calm the waters by convincing investors that it had not changed its plan for short-term interest rates. It just wanted to stop buying bonds. A new paper suggests that history is going to repeat itself.

“The paper argues that forward guidance — the Fed’s efforts to explain its plans for short-term interest rates — is building instability into markets that is likely to be unleashed again whenever the Fed does hint at raising rates. ‘Our analysis does suggest that unconventional monetary policies (including QE and forward guidance) can build future hazards by encouraging certain types of risk-taking that are not easily reversed in a controlled manner,’ write the authors, the economists Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase; Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago; Kermit Schoenholtz of New York University; and Hyun Song Shin of Princeton.” http://nyti.ms/1mNtQSX

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

SEC INVESTIGATES CITI FOR ACCOUNTING FRAUD AFTER DISCLOSING $400 MILLION BOGUS LOAN LOSS: Reuters’ Emily Flitter and David Henry — “The securities regulator is also examining whether Citigroup violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the source said. An employee at [Citigroup’s Mexican unit] Banamex has been questioned by Mexican police after being suspected by the bank of involvement in the loan scheme, another source familiar with the police investigation said. … The source familiar with the SEC investigation said the probe was in its very early stages and it was too soon to determine whether the regulator will make a referral on the case to criminal authorities at the U.S. Department of Justice.” http://reut.rs/1fAuwKQ

U.K. PREPS TAX RULES FOR BITCOIN (SO, WHERE’S THE IRS?) —Wall Street Journal’s Neelabh Chaturvedi: “The U.K.'s tax authority is near to issuing rules that would treat virtual currencies much like regular money, according to a bitcoin-industry executive who said he has seen a draft of regulations being assembled by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs. … Tax authorities around the world are wrestling with how to deal with virtual currencies, which combine elements of traditional money and speculative assets." http://on.wsj.com/1kLdXuH

IMF’S TRACK RECORD WITH UKRAINE — Bloomberg’s Sandrine Rastello and Terry Atlas: “The International Monetary Fund has extensive experience lending to Ukraine in recent years. It’s not a track record favoring the country as it seeks aid to stave off default. Twice since 2008, the IMF froze loans to the former Soviet republic after governments at the time balked at measures they had agreed to carry out. After failed attempts to revive loan talks with Ukraine, the Washington-based lender concluded in December it shouldn’t commit as much money to nations that don’t embrace economic change." http://bloom.bg/OL4jOD

BERKSHIRE REPORTS RECORD EARNINGS, HINTS AT ACQUISITIONS: FT’sDan McCrum and Tom Braithwaite after Berkshire Hathaway released earnings Saturday — “Warren Buffett gave a robust defence of his investment record after the billionaire investor failed to beat the US stock market over a five-year period for the first time in 49 years at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway. … The billionaire indicated that he and his business partner Charlie Munger remained on the lookout for large companies to buy after acquiring Heinz last year in conjunction with private equity group 3G Partners." http://on.ft.com/1bXS2Ar

** From the National Retail Federation: Criminal hackers are relentlessly attacking American businesses. Even the U.S. government was breached more than 22,000 times in 2013 — that’s 60 times per day. NRF is committed to finding broad, long-term solutions and to working with all stakeholders to ensure the protection of consumers’ sensitive information. The first step is the adoption of PIN and Chip card technology. The United Kingdom saw incredible results with a 75% drop in credit card fraud after PIN and Chip implementation. America and its industries are leaders in technological innovation and it’s time we harness that power to protect consumers.

** A message from the Independent Community Bankers of America: The first U.S. community banks were formed in the wake of the American Revolution to stabilize the nation’s postwar finances. By providing loans to entrepreneurs and developers, these community banks were soon stimulating economic growth and financing the rise of the world’s greatest democracy. Their legacy of relationship banking and local economic and job growth continues to this day, with more than 2,500 of the nation’s community banks in business for more than 100 years and the oldest dating to the presidency of John Adams. Today serving communities in every congressional district, community bankers nationwide urge Congress to advance tailored banking regulations that will allow these job creators to continue supporting local economic growth for decades to come. www.icba.org/aboutus **

Authors:

About The Author

Zachary Warmbrodt is a financial services reporter for POLITICO Pro.

He came from Argus Media, where he split nearly four years between Houston and Washington reporting on energy markets, including a few trips to oil refineries and numerous visits to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

A Texas native, he previously covered business as an intern at his hometown paper The Dallas Morning News, The Oklahoman and the Austin Business Journal.

While attending the University of Texas at Austin, he served as managing editor for The Daily Texan and worked as a Web content producer for the Austin American-Statesman’s Virtual Capitol site.

About The Author

MJ Lee is a financial services reporter for POLITICO Pro. Prior to joining the finance team in July 2012, Lee reported to POLITICO’s breaking news unit, where she covered a wide range of political news. Before this, she wrote about the White House for POLITICO 44.

Lee graduated from Georgetown University in 2009, where she majored in government and Chinese. She was born in Seoul, South Korea, and grew up mostly in Hong Kong.