Monday, July 10, 2017

ISIS Defeats in Iraq and Syria Seen Leading to New Islamist Attacks in Former Soviet Space

Paul
Goble

Staunton, July 10 – The occupation
of ISIS strongholds in Iraq and Syria in recent days does not end the threat
that Islamist activists pose. Indeed, according to some observers, it may open
a new phase in which ISIS supporters no longer having a territory to defend
will instead turn to terrorist actions outside of the Middle East and in
particular in the former Soviet space.

A commentary on the Lenta.ru news
agency suggests that some of the likely targets of now-dispersed ISIS fighters
will be in Central Asia and especially in Tajikistan (lenta.ru/articles/2017/07/10/isis_next_step/).But perhaps the most alarming prediction
comes from Yana Amelina, coordinator of the Russian Caucasus Political Club.

Some of these attacks may be
delivered by those approximately 4,000 Russian Muslims who decide to return to their
own country, but far more are likely to come from immigrant workers from Central
Asia or the south Caucasus who have been inspired by jihadist ideas. According
to her, the only way to block these attacks is to restrict immigration.

In addition, the researcher who
specializes on the North Caucasus argues that “social networks which initially
were created for virtual communities are gradually being transformed into a
technology for approving the mechanism of the preparation of young people for
suicide bombings and other aggressive activities.”

According to Amelina, this reflects
the fact that what is going on is “not the radicalization of Islam but the
Islamization of radicalism. That is, an individual who commits himself to jihad
selects that path because he is attracted to destructiveness.” Were the
Islamists not so committed to destructive activity, radicals would look
elsewhere.

Further, she warned as he has
before, that young women are increasingly part of this subculture and choose
Islamist paths precisely because it corresponds to their radicalism rather than
becoming radical after choosing Islam.The “hooliganism” and violence of youthful female subcultures in Russia
is thus a breeding ground for the next generation of terrorists.