Scharrer: Demographics tell tale of woe for Texas

Updated 5:00 pm, Monday, April 14, 2014

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Second-grader Chloe Morado claps during a performance by Jazz & Poetry at Harvard Elementary School,Friday, Feb. 7, 2014. story is about the increase in white students in HISD schools in the last several years. It's a major trend reversal for the district, as white enrollment has been in a free fall for decades. Harvard Elementary in the Heights is an example of the increases. Since 2005-06, Harvard has gone from being 80 percent Hispanic and low-income, to being 38 percent white and just 33 percent low income. ( Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle ) less

Second-grader Chloe Morado claps during a performance by Jazz & Poetry at Harvard Elementary School,Friday, Feb. 7, 2014. story is about the increase in white students in HISD schools in the last several ... more

Photo: Karen Warren, Staff

Scharrer: Demographics tell tale of woe for Texas

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Texas is headed for the ditch, but few people are aware of the state's perilous path. The demographers have seen the future, though, because it's foretold in their numbers. And they've been sounding the alarm.

There hasn't been much of a public-policy response, so far.

Texas could be the pacesetter: It has a young and rapidly growing population. Educate that workforce and Texas becomes a vibrant, thriving state for decades. Unfortunately, that young population is overwhelmingly minority and under-educated, and there appears to be little political interest in addressing the needs of that demographic group.

Increasingly, Texas stands to become poorer and less competitive, according to demographers who study the numbers for a living. Neither state leaders nor the media is paying adequate attention. Few Texans are aware of the state's rapidly changing population. Hispanics will surpass whites as the largest population group some time before 2020.

By the numbers, here's what's been taking place: The state lost 184,486 white children between 2000 and 2010 while gaining 931,012 Hispanic children over that decade, according to the U.S. Census. Stated another way, in 2000, Texas white kids outnumbered Hispanic children by 120,382; Flash forward to 2010 and Hispanic children outnumbered white kids by 995,116.

This gap will continue to widen. Demographer Steve Murdock notes the average white female is 42 years old compared to an average age of 28 for Latinas. And the fertility rate is 1.9 children for the white female compared to 2.7 for the Latina. Demographers say replacement of a population group requires a fertility rate of at least 2.1.

Whites are projected to make up fewer than 4 percent of the state's population growth between now and 2040, compared to 78 percent for Texas Hispanics.

Here's the most important figure: All of our K-12 enrollment growth over the past decade comes from low-income children - that is, children whose family income qualifies them for free and reduced-cost school lunches. Those low-income students now make up a little more than 60 percent of our public school enrollment.

Many are way behind when they arrive in the first grade. Too many drop out years later. A whopping 47 percent of low-income high school students from the Class of 2015 were off track to graduate, according to testimony in last year's public school finance trial.

Why does this matter? Murdock, who served as director of the U.S Census Bureau in the administration of President George W. Bush, projects that three out of 10 Texas workers will not have a high school diploma by 2040. Also, in 25 years, the average Texas household income will be some $6,500 less than it was in the year 2000. The figure is not inflation-adjusted, so it will be worse than it sounds. Basically, today's children, collectively, stand to be worse off than preceding generations.

How can we address the trend line? The first step is to increase access to high-quality pre-K, Murdock says.

And here is where it gets complicated. Republican lawmakers cut $200 million from pre-K resources in 2011 as part of the Texas Legislature's $5.4 billion reduction in public education funding. Conventional wisdom holds that lawmakers aligned with the tea party will be in greater numbers than ever before when the Legislature convenes next year. You won't hear that group campaigning for more pre-K funding.

An influential Republican lawmaker told me a few years ago that the leadership doesn't care about what happens to Texas in 25 years. The next election is more important. Another influential Republican leader bluntly told me that talking about the challenges of low-income students will hurt you in the GOP primary.

And the media aren't paying attention, either. Those demographics-related problems happen too far into the future. It's easier to focus on more immediate problems.

Although few realize it, we are in transition from the Old Texas to the New Texas. If you want to see the New Texas, visit just about any public school in Texas. If you want to see the Old Texas, come to the Texas Senate or House chamber.

There are no Hispanic Republicans among the 31 state senators; there are only three Hispanic Republicans among the 150 House members, and that number could drop after the fall election.

It will be interesting to watch candidates for the state's top political leadership spots this fall. How much attention will they (and the media) focus on what soon could turn into the state's No. 1 problem?

The growth in minority population has created a "generational rift" along racial and ethnic lines, which is documented in a new book, "Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge." Murdock is the lead author.

Unless we turn serious about improving the educational achievement for our minority children, Texas' economic growth will suffer, according to the book's authors. They peg the total decline in aggregate Texas household income at between $586 billion per year at the low end and up to $1.6 trillion per year at the high end. Their projections run through 2050.

"Texas will be poorer and less competitive," if the significant educational and income disparities between white Texans and Hispanics are not eliminated, the authors conclude.

Texas poverty rates will continue to climb, and the percentage of Texans with a college degree will decline, according to their projections.

Texas will become less attractive to out-of-state corporations if we become a state with low education levels and high poverty, the authors say.

"Lower-income populations are less likely to purchase housing units, to create substantial increases in private sector revenues, and to increase state taxes and other revenues at the rate of persons with higher incomes," the authors point out. "Although closing the socioeconomic gaps for Texas minority populations will be difficult, it is clear that the state is better off if they become better off."

The demographers are warning us about the not so-rosy future if we fail to act. Education is the answer. Education is the best ticket out of poverty. We simply need state leaders to understand a universal truth: It doesn't cost to educate a child; it pays to educate a child.

Scharrer spent more than a quarter-century covering Texas politics and public policy as a Capitol-based reporter for the San Antonio Express-News, Houston Chronicle and El Paso Times.