Earlier, they had the winless Jaguars, now the winless
Buccaneers. The Seahawks aren't exactly running the gauntlet on
their home schedule this year, are they?

Should the Cowboys be on upset alert?
As noted
in last week's pick results, they have a pretty bad defense,
which means that Adrian Peterson may be looking at one of his best
games of the season. Even with the mess they have at quarterback,
this could be a game the Vikings could win.

And maybe the Saints should be on upset alert too. The Jets are
actually 3-1 at home, and the Saints have had trouble on the road,
including a 2-point win at the hapless Bucs coming on a walk-off
field goal.

The Chiefs are not going to go 16-0 this year, but with the
Bills deciding between Matt Flynn and undrafted rooke Jeff Tuel,
it doesn't seem likely this is the week for their first loss.

Unless the Eagles can figure out what's wrong with their
offense by Sunday, the Raiders should cover 2½ easily.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

A comparison of
APR's
Week 8 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+8)

Somehow ESPN only drops the Jets a single spot after getting
absolutely demolished by the Bengals. With losses like that one
(and the 25 point loss to the Titans a few weeks ago), the Jets
just don't seem like they belong as high as #16.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than the Colts (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:

APR and ESPN both move the Packers (-6) up one spot after
their dismantling of the Vikings. I don't really have anything to
add
over what
I said last week. Except that the Bears and Lions are the only
opponents left on the Packers' schedule that have winning records.
So, especially if they can handle the Cutlerless Bears Monday night,
they will have a pretty clear shot to a third consecutive division
title.

This is the second week in a row the Eagles offense has
seemed... just broken. Yeah, they had to play their inexperienced
3rd string rookie quarterback for most of the game (statistically,
he actually did noticably better than last week). But they got no
support from the running game (a paltry 48 yards rushing on 19
carries). It just wasn't anywhere near enough, even against the
reeling Giants.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Steelers (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)

The Steelers are playing better than they were at the start of the
season, but they're still not very good, and it dosn't take many
mistakes to put them in a hole they can't get out of. Besides
Terrelle Pryor's 93 yard touchdown run, the Raiders also partially
blocked a punt, which set them up with a short field they were able
to convert into a touchdown. Other than that, the Raiders only had
one sustained drive all game. But they got a touchdown out of it,
and that was enough to put the game out of reach.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

Certainly the Cowboys had every chance to win this game, and while
their offense had some issues, I think the blame (once again) has to
go to the defense. Yeah, they produced 4 turnovers (which the
offense didn't do much with). But they also let the Lions score 31
points, mostly in the 4th quarter, and including a final, game
winning, 80 yard drive that started with 50 seconds left, and no
timeouts for the Lions. That's just a situation where even
moderately good defenses don't give up a touchdown.

The Seahawks manage another unimpressive road win against a bad
opponent. They don't have a lot of margin over the 49ers, Saints,
and Packers, and they probably don't want to have to play on the
road against any of those teams in the playoffs.

As bad as the Falcons have been this season, they had their
worst game yet on Sunday. Their offense couldn't move the ball,
Their defense allowed 3 long scoring drives that put them in a
21-6 hole at halftime. They're just not a second half come-back
team, and that was apparent in this game, where their offense
produced as many interceptions as scoring drives (and that's
counting a touchdown drive they managed well into garbage time).

Is there any figuring the Jets? One week they go toe-to-toe
with the Patriots, and manage an overtime win. The next week they
get absolutely crushed by the Bengals.

The Chiefs rack up another unimpressive win against what
appears to be a pretty weak opponent. Yeah, they're 8-0 (and thus,
will be at the top of most power rankings), but that lack of
offensive production could very easily spell an early exit from
the playoffs.

And speaking of the Chiefs, I think we can mark down Andy Reid
as coach of the year. Sean Payton might get some consideration,
especially if the Saints win the division and clinch one of the
top two seeds. Perhaps Bruce Arians could get some
consideration too, especially if the Cardinals somehow get to 9 wins
this year.

Reports are that the Vikings plan to start Josh Freeman again
this week. It could be Leslie Frasier's job if he doesn't do
better this week. (Although the way the Vikings have been playing,
Frasier could be out at the end of the season anyway.)

Update: Late reports are that Josh Freeman has a concussion, and may
not play Sunday night. Also, apparently Christian Ponder is next in line. Does that mean Matt Cassel is
hurt too, or have the Vikings really soured on him that much? Ponder's first three starts sure weren't anything to write home
about (at least not for Vikings fans). To my eye, Matt Cassel's numbers look better than Ponder's. Although Ponder did have
some good games at the end of the season last year, so maybe the Vikings are hoping that will somehow
return this week.

With Jermichael Finley out for a while (and maybe the season),
the Packers are down to one experienced receiver (Jordy Nelson),
unless James Jones can play this week. Second year player Jarrett
Boykin had a very good game against the Browns on Sunday. It will
help the Packers a lot if that turns out to be a trend, and not a
fluke.

The good news for the Packers is none of their remaining
opponents are more than a game over 0.500, so they should be able
to finish strong even with a lot of inexperienced players at key
positions.

For a team that was the #1 seed in the NFC last year, the
Falcons have fallen a long way to be unanimously picked to
lose to a struggling Cardinals team.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

A comparison of
APR's
Week 6 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Jets (+7)

I'm not quite sure what to make of the Jets right now. The
Patriots are the only quality team they've beaten, and they've had a
couple late wins pretty much gifted to them. On the other hand,
their defense has been doing pretty well, and Geno Smith has only a
couple games with a passer rating lower than 71.9. If they can even
split their next two games (@ Bengals, vs Saints), I'll be willing
to admit they belong higher in the rankings.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than the Bears (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Cardinals (-9)

As
mentioned last week, Carson Palmer is the weak link on this
team, and he threw a couple more game-breaking interceptions last
Thursday. Still, I think because of the strength of their defense
and special teams, the Cards are better than at least a few of the
teams ESPN has ranked above them (Browns, Falcons, Eagles)

On the bubble:

The Packers (-6), and all the other highly ranked teams
seem pretty close together, and I don't see a real favorite. All of
the teams ESPN has rated above them have a better win-loss record,
so I don't see anything to complain about ESPN's #9 rank. This is
another difference that will have to be resolved going forward.

This was a very sloppy game for the Dolphins, starting with a pick
6 on their first possession, and continuing on through to a lost
fumble late in the fourth quarter when they were trying to protect a
1-point lead. Turnovers are always bad; turnovers that give your
opponents points can be (and in this case were) game breakers.

Bengals @ Lions

The Lions haven't won this season without scoring at least 27
points, or getting at least a couple turnovers. Neither of those
things happened in this game. Still, they were in this right to the
end, but couldn't put together one more touchdown drive to put this
game away.

Patriots @ Jets

Another game by Tom Brady with a completion rate below 50%, and no
touchdowns sure didn't help the Patriots. Geno Smith actually had
better passing stats (though not by a lot). And, for the second time
this season, a late penalty set the Jets up for a game-winning field
goal. That can't be an actual strategy. Right?

Broncos @ Colts

That was a really ugly game for the Broncos. Turnovers, penalties,
lousy protection on the offensive line, as well as the Broncos' bad
defense all played their part to give the Broncos their first loss.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

Nick Foles had a terrible day (11/29, 80 yards) even before he
left the game, and LeSean McCoy's 55 yards rushing wasn't anywhere
near enough to take up the slack. The Cowboys' defense has done okay
against lesser offenses, but this was ridiculous. The Eagles'
offense just didn't produce anything on the field.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

The Steelers were surprisingly efficient on offense in this
game. Not counting a kneel down at the end of the first half, they
only had two drives that didn't end in a score. Couple that with a
solid defensive effort in holding the Ravens to 16 points, and it
was enough for them to get the win.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)

Didn't the Bears used to have a defense? Although, looking at
their box scores this season, this is the third game they've given
up at least 30 points. It's not going to matter much who they've got
under center if their defense can't stop anybody.

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Whatever their other problems are, the Giants still have a good
rush defense, which means they were able to shut down Adrian
Peterson. And with Josh Freeman starting at quarterback, with barely
any time to learn the playbook, it's no surprise that they were able
to shut down the Vikings offense.

So, the Chiefs are the final unbeaten team in the league. They
didn't look like that much Sunday, though. And I think their lack
of offense will cost them when it comes to playoff time.

And with the Giants getting the win, that leaves the Bucs and
Jags as the two final 0-fers. Barring a fluke upset, it could be a
while before we see either of them get a win.

The Broncos' loss costs them some power, but the formerly #2
Chiefs can't capitalize because of their close home win against
the very low ranked Texans.

Maybe it's just fan pessimism (and knoweldge of how many key
guys are hurt right now), but I'm not sure the Packers belong in
the top 5 right now. On the other hand, it looks like they've got
a pretty easy schedule. They won't play a team in less trouble at
least until Thanksgiving.

Wow, APR really likes the Cowboys. There's no way they belong
in the top 10 right now. If the Eagles had been able to manage
anything resembling an offense Sunday, that game would've been a
lot closer.

I was thinking last week, maybe the Jaguars had bottomed out on
power. The way APR is implemented, there's only so low a team can
go before it gets a certain amount of power-by-association just
for taking the field against another team. But this week, APR's
bottom three teams all managed to lose power.

Why is the line taking the Steelers over the Ravens? Yeah, the
Steelers played a little better last week, but it's gonna take
more than that to beat the Ravens, even in Pittsburgh.

10½ seems like a wide line for the Packers. They haven't
been lighting up the scoreboard lately, and with Randall Cobb out
and James Jones hurt, it doesn't seem like they're about ready to
start breaking any scoring records.

The good news for the Packers is that they've been running the
ball really well. In fact, as of this week, only the Eagles and
Redskins have a better yards per attempt rushing. That, and some
solid defensive efforts, have produced a couple low-scoring
victories for them.

Cowboys or Eagles? Neither squad seems like a very good team. I
think the Cowboys are probably at least marginally better, but not
enough that it seems crazy for the Line to be taking the home
standing Eagles. This definitely seems like one of those games
that will go whichever way the turnovers bounce.

The Giants have turned the ball over a league-leading 23 times
so far this season. The Vikings have gotten 12 turnovers from
their opponents. Of course, the Vikings have lost 12 turnovers
too. So if you like interceptions and lost fumbles, this could be
the game for you. And now it's reportedly Josh Freeman starting
for the Vikings this week. If the Giants blow this chance, I'll
have to re-evaluate my thoughts on them going 0-16 this year.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

A comparison of
APR's
Week 6 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bears (+8)

The Bears have a 1-point win over the (now) 1-4 Vikings, and a
6-point win over the 0-6 Giants. Not exactly the stuff of
legend. They're 1-3 against teams that ESPN has in the top half of
their rankings. Maybe APR has them underrated at #18, but they
seem a little weak for the top 10, too.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than the Jets (+5) and Texans (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:

APR has the Cardinals (-6) at #15 because they're 3-3. But
Carson Palmer is really struggling. I think he would actually be
okay in that system, if he could just stop throwing
interceptions. But so far, he's thrown 11 interceptions (at least
one in every game) and only 5 touchdowns. I have to wonder how close
HC Bruce Arians is to benching him.

Not much to say about this one, except the Steelers (probably)
aren't as bad as their first 4 games, and
(as
I said a couple weeks ago) the Jets aren't as good as their
record. For the first time all season, the Steelers got a couple of
turnovers, and didn't turn the ball over themselves. It makes a
difference.

Rams @ Texans

The Texans gained nearly twice as many yards than the Rams. But
their drives ended in punts, fumbles, interceptions, a couple field
goals, and one garbage time touchdown. The Rams only had 3
sustained drives, but they all ended in touchdowns. Add in a couple
defensive touchdowns, and this was a shockingly easy win for them.

Colts @ Chargers

The Colts couldn't hardly buy a 3rd down conversion this
game. They didn't have any in the first half, and only 2 in the
second. The result was lots of stalled drives, and
occasionally getting into field goal range. The Chargers weren't
amazingly better, but they put a touchdown on the board, along
with four field goals of their own, which was enough to put this one
out of reach.

Split Picks: (APR 2-4, SRS 3-3, Line 4-2)

Lions (APR, Line) @ Browns (SRS)

I have to put this one on the Browns' defense. It's pretty tough
to win when you give up 31 points. It's impossible when your offense
is as bad as the Browns.

Panthers (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)

The Vikings' defense at least kept this game within reach through
halftime. But things fell apart in the 3rd quarter, and the Vikings'
offense was never able to keep up.

Eagles (APR, Line) @ Buccaneers (SRS)

Mike Glennon is posting at least marginally better passing stats
than Josh Freeman did the first three weeks, and the Buccaneers
managed to score a season-high 20 points. Unfortunately, the defense
also gave up a season-high 31 points, and there was no way for the
offense to keep up.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)

Drew Brees did not have a good day passing (under a 50% completion
rate, a pick, and only 236 yards passing). But the Saints' defense
didn't help anything, giving up over 18 points for the first time
this season, including the last-second game winning touchdown.

Cardinals (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, 49ers)

Largely thanks to a valiant effort by the Cardinals' defense, this
game was close at the start of the fourth quarter. But the
Cardinals' offense couldn't stay on the field, and only scored a
couple field goals in the second half. It wasn't nearly enough.

Ravens (APR) @ Packers (SRS, Line)

In spite of playing without Clay Mattews, the Packers' defense
(with the exception of a couple late drives) did an outstanding job
of shutting down the Ravens' offense. It should also be noted, that
for the second week in a row, Mason Crosby's field goals were
another key factor in the win.

The Chiefs climb up to the #2 spot. I'm not sure I buy them as
the second best team in the league, but there's not really a
dominant team in the league right now (especially after the last
two games the Broncos played), and there's a lot to be said for
being 6-0.

And the 49ers climb into the top 10. Given the way their
offense struggled against the Cardinals, I'm still not on
them. They've got a couple tough road games coming up, at the
Titans and at the Saints, that should show if this team really
belongs in the top 10.

So I guess we can add the Texans to the list of teams that are
way worse than they were last year. This is an amazing example of
how fast and how hard a team can fall apart when they lose their
confidence.

Are we going to have a team go 0-16 this year? The Giants came
pretty close to winning their last two, so they should win one
(and with the Vikings coming to town, maybe on Sunday).

The Buccaneers have also came pretty close to winning a couple
times, including two weeks ago against the Cardinals. They also play
the Rams in week 16, which could be their best chance for a win.

That leaves the Jaguars. They haven't finished closer than within
10 points of their opponent (and even then, thanks only to the
Raiders giving up a garbage time touchdown). The Jaguars best hope
for a win may be either their week 11 game against the Cardinals, or
else hope the Colts don't have anything to play for in week 17, and
decide to rest all their starters after the first quarter.

This week may be the Steelers' best chance for a win all
season. If they emerge from the Meadowlands with a loss, it'll be
time to start wondering if they can make it to 4 wins, let alone
8.

I'm a little surprised the Patriots are favored this week,
especially after how they struggled to score points against the
Bengals. The Saints have been scoring points in bunches, and if
this turns into a shoot out, I don't think the Patriots have the
offense to keep up.

The Panthers are anther team facing one of the weakest
opponents left on their schedule. At 1-3, their season is already
slipping away, and any hope of getting things turned around has to
start with beating the Vikings.

The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 games against the
49ers. Look for that trend to continue. I suspect Carson Palmer is going to be the second
quarterback in a row to have a very tough day facing that
defense,

Clay Matthews is out with a broken thumb, reportedly for at
least a month. The rest of the Packers are going to have to step
up if they don't want to be another team with a disappointing
season.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

A comparison of
APR's
Week 5 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

49ers (+7)

The 49ers win over the Texans was impressive, but I think they
need to do more to put those ugly losses to the Seahawks and Colts
behind them before I'm willing to call them a top 10 team.

On the bubble:

The Texans (+6) might be able to pull out of their
tailspin, but they don't have a lot of headroom anymore to get into
the playoffs. And with the way the offense has been struggling, they
may have trouble getting to 8 wins this year. At 2-3, with the prospect
of a lot more losses to come, I don't see the justification to rank
them in the top half of the league.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:

I think ESPN's ranking of #30 for the Buccanneers (+6) is
largely a reflection of the dysfunction evident within that
organization. APR has them at #24, which seems pretty fair according
to what they've actually done on the field.

APR has the Cardinals (+6) at #13, which is probably too
high. Carson Palmer is at least somewhat of an upgrade over the
quarterbacks they had last year, but that position remains very much
the weak link for the Cardinals. Still, I guess wins and losses trump every
other stat, and while the Cards are at 3-2, it's hard to justify
ranking them too near some of the really bad teams in the league.

I didn't notice it until I started working on this post: except for
Jaguars @ Rams, unanimous picks were all for the road team this
week. On a "not a coincidence" note, this is one of the worst weeks for
unanimous picks in the history of fspi.

Right:

Broncos @ CowboysSaints @ Bears
Jaguars @ Rams

Wrong:

Bills @ Browns

The Browns' 37 points in this game makes it look like a breakdown
of the Bills' defense. But the Bills gave up a couple touchdowns (a
punt return and an interception return) while the defense was on the
sideline. Beyond that, it didn't help any that Bills' quarterback
E.J Manuel left in the 3rd quarter, and that backup Jeff Tuel looked
every bit the part of an unexperienced rookie backup.

Seahawks @ Colts

The bad news for the Seahawks is that they gave up more points
than they have in almost 2 years. Still, they were in this game well
into the second half. But they settled for field goals too many
times, and that opened the door for the Colts to take over the game
in the fourth quarter.

Panthers @ Cardinals

The Cardinals' defense and special teams took over this game. The
Panthers' 2nd half: punt, safety, interception, punt, fumble,
interception. The Panthers only had 2 drives longer than 48 yards,
and none longer than 21 yards in the 2nd half. The short fields the
defense set up, along with a solid running game, were enough to get
the Cardinals to another win.

Patriots @ Bengals

Another bad week passing for Tom Brady (I'm sure the torrential
rain didn't help anything), and this time, the Patriots running game
wasn't able to bail them out. You just don't win if you can't even
score 7 points.

Chargers @ Raiders

I don't know what's wrong with the Chargers, but they sure didn't
look ready to play this game. Insted, Terrelle Pryor had a very good
day (18/23 for 221 yards and 2 TDs, as well as 31 yards
rushing), which helped them sprint out to a 24-3 lead. The Chargers
managed a 4th-quarter rally, but a late redzone interception by
Phillip Rivers put an end to that.

Split Picks: (APR 2-4, SRS 3-3, Line 3-3)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

The Giants were only down a point at the start of the 4th
quarter. Facing a team playing a very inexperienced backup quarterback,
that should've been a pretty good situation for them. But then Eli
Manning started throwing interceptions. The first two gave the
Eagles a couple of touchdowns on short fields, and the last one
ended any real hopes the Giants might have had to get back into the
game.

Ravens (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)

I predicted that Ryan Tannehill would struggle against the Ravens
defense, and a 50% completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt
passing, and 6(!) sacks bear that out. It's impressive that in spite
of that, the Dolphins were still in this to the end, and had a
chance to tie in the final seconds of regulation.

Chiefs (SRS, Line) @ Titans (APR)

This game is a good example of how the Chiefs have earned their
5-0 record: their solid defense (#1 by points allowed) held the
Titans to a season-low 17 points. On offense, they have a solid
running attack (120 yards in this game), and enough passing yards from
Alex Smith to keep things going. Add in a special teams score, and
it was easily enough to give the Chiefs a win over their toughest
opponent so far this season.

Jets (APR) @ Falcons (SRS, Line)

Should the Falcons be added to the list of teams that are way
worse than they were last year? Their defense certainly looked very
bad in this game. Geno Smith threw for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns,
and only threw incomplete 4 times.

The Falcons found themselves in the uncomfortable position of
playing from behind for most of the game. And when their offense did
finally establish a 1-point lead late in the 4th quarter, the
Falcons' defense proved utterly unable to stop the Jets from driving
down the field, and kick the winning field goal as time
expired.

Texans (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Matt Schaub had an ugly, ugly game. 3 interceptions, a completion
rate barely over 50%, and under 5 yards per passing attempt added up
to a long, futile game for the Texans' offense. The 49ers offense
featured 177 rushing yards, which was enough to give them a pretty
convincing win.

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

Calvin Johnson didn't play in this game, and Matt Stafford just
isn't the same quarterback when he's not available. The Packers
played solid defense, ran the ball well, and didn't make any of the
mistakes that cost them a win a couple weeks ago. The result was a
long, and ultimately futile day for the Lions.

Totals

Another ugly week of picks. And only the Jets' improbable upset on
MNF saves APR from a 4-10 week.

Last
Summer, I
predicted the Colts would struggle this season. Instead,
Andrew Luck's completion rate, yards per attempt, and touchdown
rate have all gone up, and his interception rate has gone
down. He's just generally playing much better, and that's a big
part of the reason the Colts are 4-1 right now.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are already halfway to a third straight
season of double-digit losses and the Texans are in a
tailspin. The Colts only competition for the AFC South may be the
Titans...

And speaking of predictions, I am once again reminded that I
really shouldn't say anything about point spreads. On the other
hand, who thought that the Patriots would only score 6 points, or
the Broncos would give up 48?

And speaking of the Cowboys 48 points, I don't know how anyone
can blame Romo for that loss. He had an absolute career day,
passing for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns, and basically had one bad
pass. Here's a rule of thumb Cowboy fans may want to take into
consideration: when you score 48 points, only have one turnover,
and still lose, it's not the fault of your offense.

When I said that the winner of Bills @ Browns could emerge with
some momentum for the rest of the season, I was assuming they'd
emerge with their preferred quarterback unhurt. To be fair,
Brandon Weeden was at least servicable in relief of the injured
Brian Hoyer, and will certainly have his chance to re-prove he's
worthy of the starting position.

I've been touting the Seahawks as a likely candidate for the
top seed in the NFC playoffs, but the way the Saints have been
playing lately, they have to be in the discussion too. The way
that defensive squad has turned around, from historically bad to
very good, is really quite extraordinary.

And speaking of impressive turnarounds, in every game they've
played so far this season, the Giants have given up at least 31
points and turned the ball over at least 3 times. Eli Manning
already has 12 interceptions, just 3 short of the 15 he had all last
season, and already almost half way to the career high 25 he had in
2010. For a team that hasn't had a losing season since 2003, and won
the Super Bowl a couple seasons ago, it's a shocking breakdown.

The Line is favoring the Bengals over the Patriots?
...Wow. I will definitely double check that on Saturday. The Pats
may be struggling right now, but I just haven't been that
impressed with the Bengals so far this season.

Update: well,
it's Saturday night, and it looks like the Line is now saying Pats
-1. I don't want to make a precedent of this, but at least for this
case, I'm going to switch the Line's official pick (because I think
even without Gronk, and even without Vince Wilfork, this is a game
the Pats should be favored to win).

I'm a little surprised the Broncos are only getting 7½
over the Cowboys. Given Dallas's bad defense, and the Broncos
ability to score points, I would think the Broncos will cover that
easily.

Texans @ 49ers is an interesting matchup of two teams both
underperforming from last year. The winner might be able to use
this as a springboard to turn around their season. The loser could
be looking at a long, ugly slog to week 17 and the offseason.

And speaking of underperforming teams, it's gonna be real ugly
in Green Bay if the Packers lose to the resurgent Lions this
Sunday.

I'm not sure how good the Colts are right now, but I think they're
better than the Texans. If the Seahawks can come away this week with
another road win, it's gonna be another big step for them towards
the NFC's top seed.

How bad are the Jaguars? The Rams haven't
been favored by double
digits since 2004. Still, while the Jaguars may be really bad,
I wouldn't put it past the Rams to screw up this golden opportunity
for a win, either.

Bills @ Browns is another interesting matchup, this time
between a couple teams that look at least a little better than
expected. Again, the winner of this game should come away with
some nice momentum for the rest of the season.

I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Dolphins over the
Ravens. The Ravens defense may not be what it once was, but it's
still decent, and I think Ryan Tannehill could be in for another
tough game on Sunday.

I'm also surprised the line is giving 9½ points to the
Falcons this week. They didn't win by that much over the Rams, and
I think (last week's result against the Titans not withstanding),
the Jets still have a respectable defense.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

A comparison of
APR's
Week 4 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

49ers (+16)

APR is very much a what-have-you-done-lately system. And lately,
the 49ers have a couple blow-out losses, and a couple wins over (so
far) not very impressive teams. They're gonna have to do better than
a win over the Rams to get to the top half of APR's rankings.

Bengals (+12)

Maybe APR has the Bengals underrated at #23, but their two wins
(home, over the very bad Steelers and the struggling Packers) aren't
that impressive.

Packers (+8)

So far, the Packers have one win, a blow-out of the struggling
1-3 Redskins. Next Sunday's game against the Lions should help
resolve this APR/ESPN conflict, one way or the other.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bills (-12)

Thanks to their defense, the Bills have clawed their way to a 2-2
record (and could be 3-1 or even 4-0 if they had played a bit better
in their two losses). I'm not sold on how good they are yet, but
they're not a bottom 10 team.

Jets (-10)

The Jets are 2-2 as well, but it feels a lot more flukey for
them. Take away a late penalty in week 1, and an offensive meltdown
by the Bills, and they could easily be 0-4. We'll see how the
season plays out, but based on what I've seen so far, I'll be
surprised if the Jets finish in front of the Bills in the AFC
East.

Buccaneers (-9)

Well, the good news for the Bucs is that in 3 of their 4 games,
they've been in them right to the end. The bad news is they've lost
because of sloppy, undisciplined play. The worse news is their
offense is a mess, and they've switched to a rookie quarterback
that, based on Sunday's performance, really isn't ready to be a
starter. APR has them ranked at #22, but even at that low level,
there's a good case that they're overrated.

This was not a good game by either offense. The Cardinals had one
drive longer than 42 yards, the Bucs had one drive longer than 41
yards. Three turnovers gave the Cardinals 3 short fields and 13
points. That's all they needed to win in this game.

Cowboys @ Chargers

The Cowboys scored 21 points in the second quarter. The problem
was, they scored 0 points in the first, third, and fourth
quarters. The Cowboys don't have a very good offense, and the
Chargers did a good job of exploiting that, especially in the second
half, where the Cowboys only had the ball 4 times.

Split Picks: (APR 3-6, SRS 6-3, Line 4-5)

Redskins (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)

Matt Flynn had a terrible game. Along with a pick 6 and a lost
fumble, he only lead the Raiders on two drives longer than 36
yards. RG3 still didn't look that great, but with a solid effort
from Alfred Morris and Roy Helu running the ball, it was enough to
win this game.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

I'm still not totally sold on the Titans as a good defensive team,
but they sure made Geno Smith look like a very green rookie in this
game, with 2 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles, 5 sacks, and averaging
just 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

Steelers (Line) "@" Vikings (APR, SRS) (London)

Adrian Peterson ran for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns on the Steelers
defense. Also, Matt Cassel is a better quarterback than
Christian Ponder.

49ers (SRS, Line) @ Rams(APR)

The good news is their defense found an offense they could stop (the
Rams had 188 yards on offense), and a defense they could run the
ball on (the 49ers had 219 yards rushing). Unlike the Colts last
week, the Rams weren't able to keep up with the 49ers offense, or
even really keep the game close.

Ravens (APR, Line) @ Bills (SRS)

The Bills' defense intercepted Joe Flacco 5 times, and the Bills'
running backs rushed for 203 yards. That's a recipe for winning,
even with a struggling rookie quarterback.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

Last year, the Falcons played a lot of games where they didn't
score much in the second half. That trend has continued this year,
except now, it's costing them games. (Even the Rams came close to
tying them at the end of that game.)

Bengals (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)

Remember how I said the Browns could win some games if they could
ever get going on offense? It looks like Brian Hoyer might be the
spark they were looking for: 269 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, along
with a solid defensive effort gave the Browns their second win of
the season.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

The Bears have faced a couple of pretty bad teams, so they may not
be quite as good as their (now) 3-1 record. And the Lions,
especially when Reggie Bush is on the field and productive, are much
better than they were last year.

Dolphins (APR, Line) @ Saints (SRS)

So the Dophins defense falls back to Earth. Not too surprising,
considering that the Saints offense has been really good, even last
year when Sean Payton was away.