OTTAWA — Finance Minister Bill Morneau says it is "prudence" and not politics that led him and his officials to pick a number out of thin air for the new forecast he tabled this week that showed Ottawa’s finances to be in rougher shape than anyone thought.

But after two days in a row of being challenged to explain some key details behind their forecast, it’s pretty clear that, no, it wasn’t prudence at all, dear minister. It was all politics.

The latest political spin happened Tuesday at a meeting of the House of Commons finance committee. Opposition MPs wanted to grill Morneau on how he calculated the deficit to be $18 billion next year and $15 billion the year after that.

He was specifically asked why he chose — for the second time since becoming finance minister — to ditch the consensus forecast of 15 private sector economists from places like TD Bank, the University of Toronto and the Conference Board of Canada.

Those forecasters pegged the deficit to reach only about $12 billion next year.

NDP MP Guy Caron wanted to know what formula Finance Canada used to get such a different number from the private sector gang. There was no answer other than that Morneau thought it was the "prudent" thing to do.

Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page called this "a fudge line" and suggested Morneau ought to provide those details.

This "fudge line" could be politically useful in two ways. First, making the deficit bigger now will make the deficit seem not so big when, on March 22, we learn the cost of all the billions of Liberal campaign promises. That could help ease any sticker shock.

Second, making yourself seem, as Morneau said Monday, as if he was starting "from further back" makes it easier to exceed expectations and earn political rewards for overachieving down the road.

And while he’s trying to set his side up to minimize the political pain of this new era of deficits, he’s also trying hard to blame the previous Stephen Harper government, claiming he was "left" a deficit.

Morneau points to his own latest forecast that Ottawa will post a deficit of $2.3 billion on March 31, the end of the fiscal year.

First, the fine print in his own forecast shows that, had the Liberals done nothing and simply continued with Harper’s status quo, the "deficit" he’s forecasting now would be just $300 million. Most of the "deficit" is the result of $2 billion worth of new spending or tax breaks the Liberals brought in.

Second, Morneau’s own department said this week that for the first nine months of the current fiscal year, Ottawa posted an actual $3.2-billion surplus.

Morneau told the finance committee he expects a lot of extra costs in the final three months of the year and a lot of revenue to dry up. Well, he’d have to see expenses exceed revenue by about $6 billion to make his forecast of a deficit this year stick and be able to hang it on the Harper government.

Why shouldn’t he do that, right? Politics is a partisan sport and he should be entitled to score points for his side.

Except for one thing. He’s the finance minister of a G7 country and using a "fudge line" for deficit projections or trying to fob off fiscal responsibility on an opponent does nothing for his or his government’s credibility.

Almost Done!

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.