The IMD is reduced to a
butt of jokes. Two years in a row, they failed to predict the monsoon. During 2010-2011 monsoon season, they got the forecast
wrong, failing to anticipate a looming La Nina. The next year, again they missed
factoring in the re-emergence of a second year La Nina and ended up with mud on
their faces.

Last week the IMD revised
their May forecast last week. While
their forecast of a “normal” monsoon [(viz. 96-104% of Long Period Average
(LPA)] remains unchanged, rainfall shortfall is now forecasted at 4% of Long
Period Average (LPA), instead of an estimated 1% earlier in May. This makes
their latest forecast a downgrade of their first in May this year.

The probability for a below
average monsoon [viz 90-96% of LPA] increases by a whopping 9% while those of a
normal monsoon decreased 5% from their May forecast. Since the IMD model possesses a statistical
model error rate of + 5%, there is now theoretically, almost an equal
probability for a below-average and a normal monsoon occurring this year.

Can they put their infamous past behind and hit a bulls-eye this year? Most probably yes!