German Economic Data Has Been Astonishingly Bad

Earlier Thursday, we learned industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.5% year-over-year in June, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain. This was the first year-over-year decline since July 2013.

"June's year-over-year reading confirms the German industry is decelerating from a 5% annual growth peak reached in January," Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi and Niraj Shah said in a piece titled "No End in Sight for the German Industrial Slowdown."

"Growth in new orders slumped at its fastest rate since September 2011, and the annual growth rate fell back to -4.3%," Vistesen said Wednesday. "The German statistical office reports that while domestic orders remained unchanged, new orders from the euro area fell an astonishing -10.4% from the previous month. "

Vistesen noted that all these numbers could be volatile and that Germany recovered from similar economic hiccups in 2003 and 2004.

"[B]ut if the smoothed growth rate drops below zero, it would be a clear sign of warning," he said.

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