Will Mark Zuckerberg Reinvent The Insurance Industry? A 2011 Prediction

I predict that Time magazine’s 2010 Person of the Year is going to reinvent the insurance industry. Not sure if he knows this yet, but that’s just because he is still young enough to be insured under his parents’ health policy. Perhaps on his birthday in 2011, when he is no longer covered, he will start thinking about it.

Mark Zuckerberg, the 26-year-old CEO of Facebook and 35th richest person in the U.S., has attracted more than 500 million users to his social networking empire. Indeed, Facebook—depending on who you believe—may account for as much as 7 percent of all Internet traffic.

So why do I think someone like him will revolutionize insurance? That’s simple. The insurance industry is facing challenges that make it ripe for a “Napster Moment”—the moment when some other industry steps in and redefines the game.

You understand why the moment is nigh. The industry faces shrinking distribution, increasing regulation, public scrutiny and market dynamics that nobody can seem to keep up with.

Many are looking to tangential industries for the answer…investments, banking, even retail. But no, I do not agree. I am betting on the dark horse, Zuckerberg.

Why? Facebook/social media has three key elements that are required for insurance to work:

A large, diverse pool of people

The ability to track and store large amounts of data and make predictions from it

Social awareness of the burden of uninsured risks

And it has four things that today’s insurance industry does not have, but probably wishes that it did:

Significant levels of involvement and engagement by users

Viral marketing power

Instant feedback about what people like, dislike and what is attracting the most attention at any given moment

A hedge against antiselection (Yes actuaries, lean into this one.…)

Hang Onto Your Hats

Here is a relevant piece of history that leads me to this conclusion. Back before insurance was created, communities dealt with the threats of risk and destitution with a method that was affectionately known as “pass the hat.” When the breadwinner of a family died or became severely sick or injured, communities would respond by taking up collections to help the family get by, and thereby avoiding them from becoming a burden on society. In the 1700s, Lloyds of London had the idea to execute this collection process “in advance” of the events versus “in arrears.” It would then take the reliance off of the generosity of others and into structure. They called the contributions premiums, and they set it up so that only those who contributed their fair share would be eligible for any benefits when they needed them. The concept of pooling of risks made this more effective than passing the hat, and the innovation of insurance was born. In the case of life insurance, the government gave incentives in the form of tax benefits to encourage the use of this vehicle for the good of society.

Over time, the industry shifted its focus to older, wealthier people who could afford to maximize those tax benefits, leaving many younger families underserved. In addition, the economic risk of death is not as catastrophic as it once was, causing the product to become less relevant.

If you are to get into the heads of today’s younger people, they would probably be more favorable to the life insurance industry if it defined itself as being in the “lifestyle continuity” business. That is, making sure that any risk of messing up their future plans is covered.

So what happens when a 20-something falls victim to one of these risks, like losing a job, getting very sick, wrecking their car or losing their home? They could go home to mom and dad, which is one option. But what if they don’t have parents or their parents don’t have the means to help them? They turn to each other for help. And they are a generation of kids very willing to help those in need. They are interested in social good and sustainability. So they “pass the mobile device.” And they put their troubles out on Facebook, and they ask for help—and often get it. What if this ability was more formally structured? And the method for collecting and distributing funds was simple?

Laughing All The Way To The iPhone

More than $24 million was raised for Haitian relief after the earthquake in January of 2010, and it was all done with text messaging in a matter of about a week’s time. A bank never touched the money. The telecom companies were the ones that got to handle it for a moment.

Now, if you combine that ability to collect and distribute funds quickly with the power of a social network, the “Napster Moment” in insurance is born. Facebook has the opportunity to cover the risks handled by the insurance industry today.

And you actuaries who were waiting for the antiselection hedge, it lies in the transparency of knowing who is contributing and who is receiving benefits as well as the lifestyles and habits of these individuals. Someone who is a bad risk to the pool (i.e., a particular social network) will be addressed by the group. It’s all out there for people to see. Perhaps they will be voted off the island. Or is that a different piece of pop culture?

So Mark, Are You Reading This?

I suspect Mark Zuckerberg is not reading this article; however, I also suspect that he doesn’t need to in order to come up with the idea. Could an insurance company lead this instead? With the right innovation process and “out-of-the-jar” thinking, perhaps. Maybe I should post this suggestion on Facebook and see who “likes” it.