Defying deep misery in its home market Europe, Volkswagen grows its sales elsewhere. Powered by strong gains in the Asia-Pacific and North American regions, Group sales were up 5.1 percent for the January through July period. In the month of July, the Volkswagen Group eked out a 3.2 percent gain in Group deliveries. Meanwhile, Volkswagen did beat GM in China by a hair, and the race for World’s Largest Automaker promises to be thrilling through the rest of the year.

While the fact that Volkswagen Passenger Car sales dropped half a percent in July received major headlines and snide remarks, an important milestone remained unreported – so far: The Volkswagen Group passed GM in the important battleground China. Volkswagen reports 1.79 million as group sales in the first seven months, while GM claims 1,788,972 units as sold in the Middle Kingdom for the same period. Of course, the Volkswagen number is rounded, and rounding the GM sales, the two are neck-on-neck. In July, Volkswagen sold 250,000 units in China, while GM sold 221,580. Both groups report strong sales from China, with Volkswagen up 18.5 percent in the first seven months, and GM up 10.7 percent.

Volkswagen Group Sales July 2013

7M’13

7M’12

YoY

Jul’13

Jul’12

YoY

Total

5,450,000

5,190,000

5.1%

757,700

734,500

3.2%

Europe

2,160,000

2,230,000

-3.1%

290,000

300,000

-3.3%

WEurExD

1,120,000

1,150,000

-2.6%

150,000

140,000

7.1%

Germany

678,900

708,100

-4.1%

95,000

102,000

-6.9%

EEUr

365,400

376,300

-2.9%

52,400

53,400

-1.9%

Russia

175,000

180,100

-2.9%

25,100

27,500

-8.7%

North America

512,600

457,900

11.9%

74,700

68,100

9.7%

USA

356,800

324,200

10.1%

52,900

49,000

8.0%

South Am

523,500

566,500

-7.6%

73,000

97,000

-24.7%

Brazil

386,300

425,200

-9.2%

53,500

78,100

-31.5%

Asia-Pacific

2,000,000

1,720,000

16.6%

270,000

240,000

12.5%

China

1,790,000

1,510,000

18.5%

250,000

210,000

19.0%

India

56,600

69,400

-18.4%

7,400

8,500

-12.9%

Source: Volkswagen. Blue: Calculated from file data

Europe, where Volkswagen still has about 40 percent of its sales, is a drag on the company’s sales. Deliveries in the European market were down 3.1 percent for the first seven months and 3.3 percent for the month of July, both compared to the same period in the previous year.

Volkswagen Group Sales July 2013

7M’13

7M’12

YoY

Jul’13

Jul’12

YoY

Volkswagen Passenger

3,380,000

3,260,000

3.7%

470,000

470,000

0.0%

Audi

911,800

852,800

6.9%

131,300

119,600

9.8%

Porsche

95,300

13,700

ŠKODA

534,300

565,600

-5.5%

69,700

72,600

-4.0%

SEAT

212,100

189,200

12.1%

30,000

25,900

15.8%

Volkswagen Commercial

316,600

317,400

-0.2%

45,900

47,300

-3.0%

Source: Volkswagen. Blue: Calculated from file data

According to CNBC, China “has become a proxy for the battle the companies are waging to be the global leader in auto sales.” GM has not announced is global sales for July, Toyota will announce by the end of the month. Through the month of June, the leader board looked like this:

Tracking the world’s largest automakers

Jan-Jun 2013, full year forecast

6M’13

6M’12

YoY

Proj ’13

Toyota

5,054,940

5,247,777

-3.7%

10,110,000

GM

4,853,000

4,670,000

3.9%

9,706,000

Volkswagen

4,886,000

4,681,000

4.4%

9,772,000

Black: Company data. Green: Projection, based on
last available

Toyota, VW: Production. GM: Sales

As you can see, Toyota is set to break the 10 million unit barrier by the end of the year, afact that the company acknowledged in recent forecasts. Unless a major accident happens, Toyota should end the year as the world’s largest automaker. The race for the number two slot is wide open. It can be won by Volkswagen or GM.