September 12, 2009

How Nick Swisher got his groove back

A year ago, Swisher was one of the unluckiest players in baseball. His line drive rate in 2008 was a career-high 20.9 percent. Based on that figure, his expected batting average for balls in play was .329, which would have been a just reward for hitting the ball hard. But instead, even though he pounded the baseball, Swisher’s BABIP was a criminally low .251, a number that can be attributed to lots of terrible luck. So, despite the fact that his walk rates and strikeout rates were roughly the same in 2008 as they were compared to the rest of his career, Swisher’s productivity went into the tank, thus earning himself a one-way ticket out of the Windy City. Flash forward to Tuesday night. After swatting a pair of homers against the Rays, Swisher is hitting .254/.378/.506, defying even the most optimistic projections. His 26 homers are the second highest total of his career. … In 2008, Swisher had a career-low .325 weighted on-base average, a statistic that attempts to measure a player’s overall offensive production. So far in 2009, Swisher’s wOBA is .374, a career high.