Rubin: Secretary of State Tillerson is clearly on his way to a Rexit

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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a statement at the State Department in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

In this Sept. 26, 2017, photo, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks at the State Department in Washington. Tillerson is making his second trip to China since taking office in February, and relations between the two world powers have rarely mattered so much. The standoff over North Korea’s nuclear weapons has entered a new, dangerous phase as its leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump exchange personal insults and threats of war with no sign of a diplomatic solution. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks during a news conference, Thursday, Aug. 17, 2017, at the State Department in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

FILE – In this Nov. 7, 2016, file photo, ExxonMobil CEO and chairman Rex W. Tillerson gives a speech at the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The Treasury Department hit Exxon Mobil Corp. with a $2 million fine on July 20, 2017, for violating Russia sanctions while Tillerson was the oil company’s CEO. Treasury said in a statement that Exxon under Tillerson’s leadership had shown “reckless disregard” for sanctions that the Obama administration imposed on Russian entities in 2014 over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. (AP Photo/Jon Gambrell, File)

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte (R) shakes hands with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson prior to their meeting at Malacanang Palace in Manila on August 7, 2017, on the sidelines of the 50th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional security forum. The annual forum, hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), brings together the top diplomats from 26 countries and the European Union for talks on political and security issues in Asia-Pacific. / AFP PHOTO / TED ALJIBETED ALJIBE/AFP/Getty Images

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson listens for a journalist’s question during his and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov a news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, April 12, 2017. Amid a fierce dispute over Syria, the United States and Russia agreed Wednesday to work together on an international investigation of a Syrian chemical weapons attack last week. (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev)

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, center, walks in the Royal Court Palace, Sunday, May 21, 2017, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AP Photo/Hasan Jamali)

A handout picture provided by the Saudi Royal Palace on May 20, 2017, shows US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (L) and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman al-Saud shaking hands during a signing ceremony at the Saudi Royal Court in Riyadh on May 20, 2017. Agreements worth more than $380 billion have been signed between Riyadh and Washington on the first day of US President Donald Trump’s visit, the Saudi foreign minister said. / AFP PHOTO / Saudi Royal Palace / BANDAR AL-JALOUD / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO / SAUDI ROYAL PALACE / BANDAR AL-JALOUD” – NO MARKETING – NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSBANDAR AL-JALOUD/AFP/Getty Images

(FILES) This file photo taken on August 30, 2011 shows Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (L) speaking with ExxonMobil President and Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson during the signing of a Rosneft-ExxonMobil strategic partnership agreement in Sochi on August 30, 2011. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday tapped ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson, an oilman with deep ties to Russia, as his secretary of state. Tillerson’s nomination comes just days after a secret CIA report accused Russia of interfering with the US election in favor of Trump, in a development which could complicate his confirmation. / AFP PHOTO / RIA NOVOSTI / ALEXEY DRUZHININALEXEY DRUZHININ/AFP/Getty Images

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson takes part in a press conference after a meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister in Moscow on April 12, 2017. Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 11, 2017 met US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after complaining of worsening ties with Donald Trump’s administration as the two sides spar over Syria. Putin received Tillerson at the Kremlin along with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after the top diplomats held several hours of talks dominated by the fallout of an alleged chemical attack in Syria. / AFP PHOTO / Alexander NEMENOVALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP/Getty Images

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) shakes hands with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a press conference in Moscow on April 12, 2017. Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 11, 2017 met US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after complaining of worsening ties with Donald Trump’s administration as the two sides spar over Syria. Putin received Tillerson at the Kremlin along with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after the top diplomats held several hours of talks dominated by the fallout of an alleged chemical attack in Syria. / AFP PHOTO / Alexander NEMENOVALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP/Getty Images

FILE – In this Friday, March 27, 2015, file photo, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson delivers remarks on the release of a report by the National Petroleum Council on oil drilling in the Arctic, in Washington. Tillerson, the nominee of President-elect Donald Trump for secretary of state, is severing ties with Exxon Mobil through a $180 million retirement package ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

The secretary of State, repeatedly humiliated and undercut by President Donald Trump, is clearly on his way to a Rexit, probably by year’s end. World leaders know he doesn’t speak for the president, which reduces his credibility to zero. And Trump will never forgive him for calling the president a “moron” at a national security meeting.

But Tillerson’s downfall signifies something far more dangerous than the latest tick in the “you’re fired” Trump reality show. It reflects the collapse of U.S. diplomacy under a president who thinks he can resolve global crises by bluster and threats.

In other words, under Trump, diplomacy itself has become toast. This leaves only bad options for dealing with North Korea or Iran.

Tillerson brought a fair share of his trouble on himself by adopting Trump’s disdain for the institutions of the State Department, including a decimation of its budget and personnel. Critical positions and ambassadorships remain unfilled, leaving the administration hard pressed to implement key policies in Asia or the Mideast — if such policies exist.

Moreover, it was painful to watch the former Exxon Mobil chief abase himself last week in an extraordinary press conference in which he insisted he hadn’t threatened to resign. In order to keep his job, he lavished words of praise on Trump that sounded as if they’d been dictated by the White House. One can only assume Defense Secretary James Mattis begged Tillerson not to quit in the face of looming challenges on North Korea and Iran, and an upcoming Trump trip to China in November.

Yet Tillerson can be of little use when the president refuses to grasp that diplomacy isn’t about “being nice,” in Trump’s scornful words, but rather about achieving U.S. goals without having to resort to force.

Over and over, the president has contradicted Tillerson’s diplomatic efforts in words or tweets, the latest episode being the most telling. After key meetings in Beijing several days ago, where he was pressing the Chinese to further tighten economic sanctions on North Korea, the secretary told reporters he was exploring lines of communication with Pyongyang.

Upon hearing that news, Trump immediately tweeted “I told Rex Tillerson … he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket man. Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done.”

At minimum, Washington needs a serious back channel means of communicating with Pyongyang — something Tillerson apparently was exploring — so each side understands the other’s intent.

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Trump, however, appears eager to reduce the U.S. options on North Korea to more presidential insults and threats or starting a massive, hugely destructive war.

On Iran, Trump’s detestation for diplomacy is equally dangerous.

Every 90 days, U.S. law requires the president to affirmatively certify whether Tehran is living up to the terms of the 2015 nuclear accord, which mothballed Iran’s nuclear program for at least 10-15 years. Trump, who has repeatedly denounced the deal, will reportedly deny that certification by Oct. 15, the next deadline.

Never mind that U.N. inspectors — along with the other parties to the deal, including our European allies, Russia, and China — all say Tehran is basically adhering to the deal. So does Mattis.

There are indeed problems with Iran’s behavior in the Mideast and with its testing of missiles. No one is happy with the sunset clause that lets key provisions of the deal expire in 10 to 15 years.

The way to approach these flaws is to organize a broad coalition that presses Iran to negotiate follow-on accords — that add to the nuclear deal. Our European allies are eager to join in this tough but not impossible effort.

But choosing that path requires a president who has the patience for diplomacy and understands that it requires time and skill in building coalitions behind the scenes.

After Tillerson’s press conference. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that Tillerson, Mattis, and Chief of Staff John Kelly were “those people that help separate our country from chaos.” That troika looks to be depleted soon. Who knows how long the other two will last.

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