The population of Africa may double to 2.4 billion by 2050, and reach 4 billion by 2100. This unexpected UN forecast is bad news for Africa’s development prospects, especially in the context of economic growth figures. The latest report on Africa’s economic outlook by the African Development Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UN Development Program (UNDP) estimates that the 4.5% average growth of GDP over the past four years will be maintained in 2015 and 2016 ; a remarkable performance compared with the eurozone (0.9% in 2014) or even Latin America (1.7%), and respectable against Southeast Asia (7%).

However, the picture is different with per capita GDP, as its growth falls to 1.6% in sub-Saharan Africa — 0.4% in the eurozone, 0.6% in Latin America and 6% in Asia. So African demographic growth could sharply reduce the pace of improvement in living conditions over the next few decades, which should prompt us to consider emergency measures, yet there has been little response.

The population of Africa is growing 2.5% per year, against a global average of 1.2%. While that trend is holding in Latin America and Asia, growth is 0.4% in North America, and in Europe is almost at a standstill. Africa is a case apart in the vast global demographic transition, but this might just be a time lag. Mortality often falls before fertility in a demographic transition, resulting in an unstable period of strong growth. The longer it lasts, the greater the population increase.

For several decades, Latin America and Asia had annual rates above or equal to 2%, so between 1950 and 2050 the population of Latin America increased 4.7 times and that of Asia 3.7 times. In sub-Saharan Africa the growth rate has been above 2% for 60 years and this could continue for several decades. The multiplier may then be 11 or more, and the population could continue to increase after 2050. Since growth rates in North Africa have not been the same, (...)