Monday, May 25, 2009

A new Quebec-only poll out from Leger Marketing for Le Devoir shows Stephen Harper's nasty attack ads appear to have done nothing to help Conservative fortunes in the province, with the NDP now polling ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec and the Liberals outpacing the BQ for the lead.

Amongst Francophones, the BQ leads at 40%, followed by the Liberals at 32%, the NDP at 14% and the Conservatives at 11%.

Another interesting statistic. Leger reports 71% of Quebecers are dissatisfied with the Harper government, while just 21% are satisfied. Leger notes that even at the height of the sponsorship scandal, during the Gomery Commission, Paul Martin's government bottomed-out at 36% satisfaction.

Michael Ignatieff is still driven by a favorable wind, according to Christian Bourque, vice-president of research at Léger Makerting. "There is truly a pro-liberal movement in Quebec. The rise has been constant since December. There is a novelty, people want to discover Ignatieff. It also benefits the difficulties of the Conservative Party and the fact that the Bloc Quebecois seems to offer nothing new. "

According to Leger Marketing, the discourse of centrist and moderate like Michael Ignatieff Quebec. "It is not a province on the right or left. It is a province that loves the extreme center. Ignatieff is designed just for the moment, "says Bourque.

(snip)

"It's like the bond of trust between the Harper government and Quebecers had been broken," said Christian Bourque. An accumulation of factors makes Quebecers say they do most conservatives. This is not one thing in particular, but several elements."

Leger finishes by cautioning not to write the Conservatives off in Quebec, and I'll agree with that. They're a tricky, wily bunch. Leger also notes the Conservative fundraising rally in the province last week. L. Ian MacDonald has some notes of caution about reading to much into that "success" however:

No one from the entourage of Premier Jean Charest, or the Quebec Liberal Party, was on the VIP guest list. How stupid was that? Pretty stupid, since the ADQ can't deliver anything to Harper, and Charest controls the only federalist ground game in Quebec, a wondrous thing called the Big Red Machine. The Quebec guys around Harper continue to get it wrong. Either they don't get it, or they don't care. Or they're just plain stupid.

My thoughts? There's real dissatisfaction with the Harper Conservatives in Quebec, and there has long been a certain pool of people that aren't BQ fans but vote for them for a lack of compelling alternatives. The Michael Ignatieff-led Liberals are now seen by Quebecers as a compelling alternatives, and increasingly they're willing to give the Liberals a chance again.

How firm their conviction will be remains to be seen, and will be determined by our actions and our policies as we begin to roll them out going forward. Remember, they gave the Conservatives a chance too, and the Cons blew it. Right now, however, they're open to us, and that's a substantial shift.