Why a war between China and Russia is unlikely

The only possible reason remaining for a war between Russia and China would be a territorial claim. Source: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation / mil.ru

China can theoretically have issues with Russia, but only if the latter finds itself completely disintegrated as a nation for whatever reason.

The possibility of a war between China and Russia has long
been a fertile topic for armchair critics of varying degrees of madness. Those
who propose such scenarios typically belong to one of two groups. There are
self-proclaimed strategists and role-gaming fans; they don't really care who
might be fighting whom, and to what ends. What interests this category is the process.
There are also the pragmatic ones, those who do the scaremongering
professionally and get paid for this. Submit copy and collect your fee. Supply
chilling details and get some TV air time, meaning greater popularity ratings
and, as a consequence, a heftier bank account.

There is one simple question however which typically remains
ignored in these discussions: why? Indeed, why would China want to fight
Russia? What is it that Russia has and China doesn't, and which could only be
had by attacking Russia? Most armchair experts point out that war is possible
over natural resources. But this does not appear to be a valid answer.

There are two reasons why a nation might decide to go to war
over natural resources: because it doesn't have enough of its own, or because
it wants to block another country's access to such resources. In all other
instances it is cheaper and easier to simply buy whatever you lack. War is a
costly affair. Which resources exactly cannot China openly buy from Russia? The
answer is none. And if we look at the going price of Russian crude for China,
it is actually Moscow that should start a war on Beijing in order to free
itself from the enslaving contract.

But could it be so that China is wishing to stop someone else
from accessing certain resources? Absolutely not. China's competitive point is
in flooding the global markets with dirt-cheap commodities. Japan with its
hi-tech industry has already stopped manufacturing hard drives, memory stocks
and mobile phones locally: it's all made in China nowadays.

The only possible reason remaining for a war would be a
territorial claim. However, which is more important for China: occupying
Russia's Maritime Territory or returning Taiwan? All of Beijing's post-World
War II rhetoric has been centred around the idea of reuniting Taiwan with
mainland China. Far from being a hidden agenda, this idea openly dominates the
Chinese foreign policy. In this respect however it is the USA, not Russia,
which stands between Beijing and its coveted goal.

China won an important political victory in 1997 by returning
Hong Kong; never mind that in order to achieve this, Beijing had to come up
with the previously unheard-of "One country, two systems" formula.
Only a blind person could fail to see this as a strategic stepping stone in
China's plan to achieve similar reunification with Taiwan. In fact, immediately
after the Hong Kong sovereignty transfer Beijing's relations with Taipei became
much more tolerant and friendly, even though there are still certain problems at
times.

Another territorial thorn in China's side is the on-going
dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) archipelago in the East China Sea.
The islands themselves are of no worth to either side; what is more valuable is
the 12-mile territorial waters and 200-mile exclusive economic zone around the
archipelago, where hydrocarbon deposits have recently been found. One problem
for Beijing, however, is that Japan is a close ally of the USA (not of Russia).
Washington has recently reacted very
nervously to Beijing's latest Diaoyu-related escapades. Russia for its part
limited its reaction to the usual calls on the opposing parties to resolve the
conflict peacefully.

The USA is not going to stand down its Pacific presence; on
the contrary, it is expanding that presence slowly but surely.

Xinjiang is another headache for China: Uyghur separatism is
raising its head in that region, and local terrorist groups are preparing for
action. So far these militants are undergoing training at Islamist camps in
Syria but they will be back, team-trained and ready. One more potential problem
for Beijing to reckon with is the Taliban, which may again come to power in
Afghanistan very soon. The Taliban already has a strong presence in
Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Region, which is situated uncomfortably close to
Xinjiang.

So is Russia backing the Taliban? Is it Russia that the Taliban
is holding talks and consultations in Doha? On the contrary, we are again
talking about the USA, represented by senior officials of the Department of
State.

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China does have its share of problems and pressure points.
Some of these may well merit a war in the future. But where does Russia come in
here? What problems (real problems, not hypothetical ones) would China solve by
attacking Russia? Does it really have interests worth fighting Russia for?

Of course China can theoretically have issues with Russia,
but only if the latter finds itself completely disintegrated as a nation for
whatever reason. Only in that case will Beijing have to cross the Amur, and
even then its aim would be not to conquer its neighbour but to create a buffer
zone against millions of potential Russian refugees. Even then, such a scenario
could hardly be described as a full-blown war. On the other hand, it does have
at least some relevance as distinct from the numerous role-playing horror
stories.

Hypothetically of course we could lock ourselves in a war
room and concoct possible scenarios for what China's invasion of Russia might
result in – just for the fun of it. In this case however we will have to ignore
the question of why China would have to attack in the first place.

No post-war settlement can possibly make up for the economic
collapse and tens of millions of victims caused by an armed conflict. The USSR
of 1941 had it relatively easy: the country's industrial potential got
evacuated beyond the Urals and the Nazi troops immediately stopped being a
threat. Is there really someplace safe where China can hide its economy away if
the air-raid sirens start wailing?