And, again, if the Sox were forecasted at like 50+%, people would be praising the prognostication.

Not one person in this thread (or any other thread, for that matter) has taken issue with the idea that the Sox have less chance to make the playoffs than Detroit or that the Sox are not likely to even make the playoffs. It is not inconsistent with that notion, however, to ridicule the idea that CLE or SEA have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Sox. This is keeping in mind that the consensus on WSI has consistently done a much better job of guessing how the Sox will perform in any given upcoming season than BP has, which is really the focal point of the criticism.

__________________"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN (January 12, 2011)

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the (bleeding) obvious is the first duty of intelligent men." — George Orwell

Not one person in this thread (or any other thread, for that matter) has taken issue with the idea that the Sox have less chance to make the playoffs than Detroit or that the Sox are not likely to even make the playoffs. It is not inconsistent with that notion, however, to ridicule the idea that CLE or SEA have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Sox. This is keeping in mind that the consensus on WSI has consistently done a much better job of guessing how the Sox will perform in any given upcoming season than BP has, which is really the focal point of the criticism.

Eh...I'd disagree with that. Countering the argument of the predictions with "they're meaningless" or "that's why they play the games" is pretty much saying the same thing.

Not at all. And that's why it's silly that BP even puts these predictions out. Look, you had a tantrum early about people not respecting BP's authori-tah. You say they are well respected, well read, used by front offices, that's fine. Then you say that although those numbers are very relevant and accurate, their predictions are inaccurate and "for fun". The fact that they have to defend their very flawed model by saying "you shouldn't take them that seriously" speaks volumes.

So, whatever credibility they have on other statistics is jeopardized through them putting out these numbers which you and they admit are flawed. Even if they are an authority on stats, they are self-admittedly not one on predictions. The fact that they include a caveat emptor with their predictions shows as much.

Holy ****, you don't understand this stuff at all, do you? How many times does it need to be reminded that the team projections they publish represent only the tiniest fraction of work they do? Yes, everyone knows that projecting an entire 162-game baseball season in February is incredibly difficult and no, nobody is going to take their life savings to Vegas an plop it down on 77 wins for the Sox because BP said so.

Anyone who understands this stuff concentrates on their INDIVIDUAL PLAYER assessments and projections, which is far more reliable and useful. THAT'S why BP is so well read and respected amongst the professional baseball community. Again, just like a news show broadcasting a joke segment on April Fool's Day... Everyone knows that segment is "just for kicks" for a special day, but it doesn't add or take away from their integrity the rest of the year.

Holy ****, you don't understand this stuff at all, do you? How many times does it need to be reminded that the team projections they publish represent only the tiniest fraction of work they do?

That's what I said.

Quote:

Originally Posted by doublem23

Anyone who understands this stuff concentrates on their INDIVIDUAL PLAYER assessments and projections, which is far more reliable and useful.THAT'S why BP is so well read and respected amongst the professional baseball community.

Right. I said this is not their specialty, what gained them notoriety.

Quote:

Originally Posted by doublem23

Again, just like a news show broadcasting a joke segment on April Fool's Day... Everyone knows that segment is "just for kicks" for a special day, but it doesn't add or take away from their integrity the rest of the year.

Bad analogy. They have credibility in another area, but they jeopardize it by doing something (rather poorly) in another area. This is compounded by them saying "don't take them seriously" when they are wrong, but then getting REALLY SNARKY and rubbing it in when they are correct, like in 2007 when they predicted the Sox would be bad but had all the reasons completely wrong.

Eh...I'd disagree with that. Countering the argument of the predictions with "they're meaningless" or "that's why they play the games" is pretty much saying the same thing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kittle42

Have to agree with munch here.

Well, you both can infer what you want, of course. The overwhelming offseason commentary on the topic here at WSI has been that Detroit is the clear favorite to win the AL Central and the Sox will have to have almost all the question marks be resolved in their favor to even make the playoffs. I don't see how the criticism of BP's faulty guessing methods is inconsistent with that.

Bad analogy. They have credibility in another area, but they jeopardize it by doing something (rather poorly) in another area. This is compounded by them saying "don't take them seriously" when they are wrong, but then getting REALLY SNARKY and rubbing it in when they are correct, like in 2007 when they predicted the Sox would be bad but had all the reasons completely wrong.

I personally don't think they jeopardize anything because, again, anybody with half a brain knows not to take them too seriously.

Eh...I'd disagree with that. Countering the argument of the predictions with "they're meaningless" or "that's why they play the games" is pretty much saying the same thing.

Well, they are meaningless because the games played are what actually decide baseball, so that's just a fact. The reaction to BP was more to people who gave the predictions credence, specifically you who said that we basically had to accept that the Sox would have a losing record, to which dickallen posted that BP isn't that accurate with predictions and two of the teams they picked to finish in last place teams made the playoffs in 2012.

Nobody here has guaranteed the Sox would win the division. I don't think anyone actually predicted them to finish first. However, when Munchman trots out and says they have NO chance, with part of his argument based on these predictions, that is what people objected to. More specifically, I don't think people objected to that the Sox would finish in second place as much as the idea that the Sox would win only 77 agmes.

Well, you both can infer what you want, of course. The overwhelming offseason commentary on the topic here at WSI has been that Detroit is the clear favorite to win the AL Central and the Sox will have to have almost all the question marks be resolved in their favor to even make the playoffs. I don't see how the criticism of BP's faulty guessing methods is inconsistent with that.

asindc if that was the consensus, I wouldn't need to post. There are some that have mirrored your senitiment. But there are also those that think it's more than just possible most/all of those things go right. There are some that deny there are issues with players, like Sale (elbow) and Konerko (age, wrist, every other body part). So no, I don't believe everyone mirrors that sentiment at all.

Well, they are meaningless because the games played are what actually decide baseball, so that's just a fact. The reaction to BP was more to people who gave the predictions credence, specifically you who said that we basically had to accept that the Sox had no chance at the playoffs, to which dickallen posted that BP isn't that accurate with predictions and two of the teams they picked to finish in last place teams made the playoffs in 2012.

Nobody here has guaranteed the Sox would win the division. I don't think anyone actually predicted them to finish first. However, when Munchman trots out and says they have NO chance, with part of his argument based on these predictions, that is what people objected to. More specifically, I don't think people objected to that the Sox would finish in second place as much as the idea that the Sox would win only 77 agmes.

To be fair, I never said NO chance. I did say pretty close to no chance. I believe I also said almost/nearly impossible to win the division. Which is reflected in those ratings, yes. There is a chance, but it's pretty insignificant. And these ratings show that too. And yes you play the games. But that doesn't mean deny logic. It's gonna be pretty damn tough for our boys to win the Central this year.

Holy ****, you don't understand this stuff at all, do you? How many times does it need to be reminded that the team projections they publish represent only the tiniest fraction of work they do? Yes, everyone knows that projecting an entire 162-game baseball season in February is incredibly difficult and no, nobody is going to take their life savings to Vegas an plop it down on 77 wins for the Sox because BP said so.

Anyone who understands this stuff concentrates on their INDIVIDUAL PLAYER assessments and projections, which is far more reliable and useful. THAT'S why BP is so well read and respected amongst the professional baseball community. Again, just like a news show broadcasting a joke segment on April Fool's Day... Everyone knows that segment is "just for kicks" for a special day, but it doesn't add or take away from their integrity the rest of the year.

Yeah we get it, BP is the greatest thing in baseball since overhand pitching. You seem to get irate anytime anyone dares to criticize the publication. Yes, everyone realizes these are just projections. But they are so far off on the White Sox, nearly every year, it is fair to question the methodology. The Sox have overperformed something like 50 games over the last 4 or 5 years according to BP forecast. The Sox would have been in last a couple times and fourth a couple times if these projections were even remotely accurate. The BP machine says the Sox will not have 1 starting pitcher with a winning record this year, this after a year with a winning record, Danks coming back, not too many lineup changes, etc. Maybe the big predictor machine is broke is all a lot of us are saying. If they are so accurate , according to you, on individual player projections, why does the big computer suck so bad at predicting records?

Yeah we get it, BP is the greatest thing in baseball since overhand pitching. You seem to get irate anytime anyone dares to criticize the publication. Yes, everyone realizes these are just projections. But they are so far off on the White Sox, nearly every year, it is fair to question the methodology. The Sox have overperformed something like 50 games over the last 4 or 5 years according to BP forecast. The Sox would have been in last a couple times and fourth a couple times if these projections were even remotely accurate. The BP machine says the Sox will not have 1 starting pitcher with a winning record this year, this after a year with a winning record, Danks coming back, not too many lineup changes, etc. Maybe the big predictor machine is broke is all a lot of us are saying. If they are so accurate , according to you, on individual player projections, why does the big computer suck so bad at predicting records?

Well, you both can infer what you want, of course. The overwhelming offseason commentary on the topic here at WSI has been that Detroit is the clear favorite to win the AL Central and the Sox will have to have almost all the question marks be resolved in their favor to even make the playoffs. I don't see how the criticism of BP's faulty guessing methods is inconsistent with that.

Thank you. I haven't seen anyone here saying the Sox were the favorites to win the division. I have, however, seen people say that the Tigers winning isn't a 100% slam dunk because anything can happen during a 162 game season.

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