...and five things to watch in Montana

After losing a string of contests to rival Hillary Clinton, Montana offers Barack Obama his best chance to head into the general election with a head of steam.

He's riding a double-digit polling lead over Clinton in Montana, one of two primaries today that will end voting in their epic battle. The other state voting today – South Dakota – appears headed for a closer finish.

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Obama has won many of the neighboring Rocky Mountain and Great Plains states—most of which were caucus formats. But Montana holds a primary election, and its demographics would seem well suited to Clinton.

“The Democratic Party here traditionally has been grounded in union support and using populist themes,” said Jim Lopach, a political science professor at the University of Montana. “You would think that would give Hillary Clinton an advantage here.”

But Lopach said there seems to be more enthusiasm in Montana for Obama, though he wouldn’t be surprised if Clinton kept things close.

A narrow Clinton loss, combined with a surprise win in South Dakota could lend energy to her last-ditch appeals to the superdelegates who will decide the nomination or – if nothing else – complicate her decision on whether to drop out.

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Though Obama led Clinton 52 to 35 percent (with 13 percent undecided) among likely Democratic voters in Montana in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted May 19-21, his margin came almost entirely from the western part of the state.

“We had Clinton ahead in eastern Montana,” said Brad Coker, director of the poll.

The eastern part of the state is more rural and less densely populated. And it has all the demographic makings of Clinton country: lots of seniors, farmers and blue collar workers.

“If she starts cutting into his margins in the western part of the state, it could be closer,” said Coker.

That might be easier said than done, though, since the western part of the state seems well-suited for Obama. There are two big university towns – Missoula, home to the University of Montana and Bozeman, home to Montana State University.

Plus, there are clusters of younger and affluent voters around the ski resorts near Kalispell. And the state capitol of Helena is home to a significant population of well-educated white-collar government workers.

Clinton could make inroads in Western Montana in Butte, an old mining center, Great Falls, home to an Air Force base, and Anaconda, another older mining town.

The battle for Billings

About 15 percent of the state’s population live in Billings, Montana’s largest city with about 100,000 residents, and surrounding Yellowstone County.

As home to most of the state’s Democrats, Yellowstone County could be determinative. It’s considered cowboy country, but Billings is also a commercial hub with a population of professionals.

If Clinton wins the city and county by a good margin—and she is favored there—she could hold down Obama’s margin statewide.