The Political Junkie offers an outside-looking- in view of the US. Each day, we will highlight news and opinion pieces from around the world that are focused on US politics and policy. Agree or disagree with the opinions you will read but take a few minutes to see yourselves as others see you.

Pages

Saturday, October 20, 2012

UK: As the US economy slowly improves....

The Economist

The economy

A silver lining, not a sunrise

Why isn’t Obama doing better? Why isn’t Romney? The answer is jobs

Voters may not hold grudges on November 6th. Political scientists
reckon that economic fundamentals strongly influence the performance of
the incumbent party in big elections, and that voters place the biggest
emphasis on the most recent trends in such things as income and
employment. The perception that hard times were retreating carried both
Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan to re-election, in 1936 and 1984,
despite economic struggles earlier in their terms. It is discomfort with
recent performance that leaves Mr Obama facing such a tight race.
Economic models predict a virtual dead heat.

One last month’s worth of jobs data— October’s—will be released
before the election. Whatever the numbers, Mr Obama will be unable to
make a Reagan-like claim that morning has returned to America. If Mr
Romney is unable to capitalise on this, that may be because of his
failure, matched by his opponent’s, to offer the country a convincing
explanation for its long-run labour-market troubles.