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Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

I just saw a report on ESPN today where the "analyst" was saying what a good addition Willy has been for the Reds and how many teams are looking for speedy leadoff hitters like him. He went on to mention his contract and that Jocketty had found a bargain.

I can understand ESPN saying that. He's getting on base at a decent clip and he's relatively inexpensive. Reports on his defense so far haven't been all that great but I doubt the "analyst" even discussed that part of his game.

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Basically at 27, you're what ya are with perhaps room for some minor tweaks. I'm sure there are historic exceptions but exceptions shouldn't be planned for...

I wonder why people don't take this attitude with Dickerson though?

Dickerson is the same age as Tavares and has been downright putrid this season (so far). I hope he gets better, but I am extremely thankful Walt signed Tavares and did not hand Dickerson the CF job, as most of the board wanted (and some continue to want).

With Tavares speed/defense factored in, he's approximately average.. Maybe slightly below average. At 6 million for 2 years, I'll take that. In contrast, EdE is 26 years old, making 7.6 million for 2 years, playing a less demanding defensive position and has an OPS of .476 .. where are all the torches and pitchforks for EdE?

Brandon Phillips is 27, and has a career line of OBP 309 SLG .425 OPS .734.
He has a huge contract. While he's definitely a plus defender, where are all the posts comparing his OBP to the "average" and complaining. Think about that, Wily T's career OBP is 332.

The point is that there's a lot worse roster inefficiencies on this team than Taveras.

Here's NL average for leadoff hitters so far

260 .326 .377 .703

and NL CFers

.264 .345 .431 .776

Taveras is OBP 355 and OPSing 733 so far, so he's just slightly below average. Still a bargain at the price he is paid.
Milwaukee is paying Cameron about 10 million.. that's the going rate for an average CF on the FA market.

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Originally Posted by REDREAD

With Tavares speed/defense factored in, he's approximately average.. Maybe slightly below average. At 6 million for 2 years, I'll take that. In contrast, EdE is 26 years old, making 7.6 million for 2 years, playing a less demanding defensive position and has an OPS of .476 .. where are all the torches and pitchforks for EdE?

Brandon Phillips is 27, and has a career line of OBP 309 SLG .425 OPS .734.
He has a huge contract. While he's definitely a plus defender, where are all the posts comparing his OBP to the "average" and complaining. Think about that, Wily T's career OBP is 332.

Seriously? I've read quite a few on here who want EE to hit the road immediately. There are also tons of posts complaining about Brandon's OBP. Plenty of torches and pitchforks for both of those players. Plenty.

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Was at the Saturday and Sunday games and got my first live look at Willy T. Ironically, my impressions of him, based on a whopping two games, were exactly opposite of what I was expecting: his defense left me cold and his bat wasn't as turd like as I expected.

He looked utterly lost in the field. Poujols launched one Saturday (IIRC) that he ran in on at first, and then had to rapidly back-peddle and leap up to catch. Several times he appeared to get bad and late reads on the ball. His wheels and the small OF helped his cause. While I wasn't expecting a gold-glove performance, he didn't even look "acceptable". He looked flat out horrible.

At the plate, OTOH, I was expecting him to look outclassed and he actually handled himself rather well. I don't know what his final count was over the two games, but just from appearance and memory he didn't look like a complete idiot. He seemed confident at the plate and every time I figured he'd ground out he either walked or got a solid hit.

Now, he may have had a couple of bad days in the field, and he was seeing the ball very well, so I'm not rushing to any conclusions at all based on two days. But for the two games I saw in person, I was surprised by what transpired.

a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

M2 put it best when he said that players like Taveras are very common and easy to acquire.

Except they aren't very common and easy to acquire.
Hopper and Dickerson are clearly a few steps below Taveres.

There's a reason why guys like Gary Matthews, Andrew Jones, and Goodwin got huge contracts. Decent CF are a rare commodity. Yes, it was poor judgement to hand out those contracts, but it shows the supply/demand curve.

If guys like this are so easy to acquire, who was available on the FA list last winter? Who was on the trading block? Why was Milwaukee so willing to pay a premium for Cameron? Why are young good CF almost never traded, and when they are, they fetch a premium.. Look at the Cameron/Konerko deal.. if Cameron hadn't had an off year, he wouldn't have been available. Look at the Hamilton/Volquez deal.

Good (or even) average SS and CF are difficult to find.

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Placing Dickerson in CF and finding a legitimate bat to play LF would have made this such a better roster. Taveras was just a horrible target for acquisition.

Dickerson has been a huge disaster. He's only 6 months younger than Taveras and is just now getting a taste of the majors. Now the league knows how to pitch him, and he's performing poorly.

Thank God Dickerson was not handed the CF job. If he doesn't pick up his performance, he's not even worth keeping as a 5th OF. He has done absolutely nothing well this year. I hope he turns things around, but I am not optimistic.

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

According to the defensive metrics, Taveras had a good week. Perhaps the eyes are correct; most likely, people see what they want to see.

That was the part where I said, "his wheels and a small outfield helped his cause". He was able to get to a lot of the balls he got late starts and/or bad reads on. Doesn't change that he looked lost.

Also doesn't change that he's relying on a small outfield and his speed to compensate for a lack of natural instincts.

a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Originally Posted by BRM

Seriously? I've read quite a few on here who want EE to hit the road immediately. There are also tons of posts complaining about Brandon's OBP. Plenty of torches and pitchforks for both of those players. Plenty.

I have not seen dedicated threads or the amount of emotion attacking those 2 guys. Yeah, it gets mentioned in passing.

According to the stat page I pulled, Wily was posting about a 350 OBP.. I think a lot of people said they would be happy if he did that.. Yet we still get posts of people saying we should've just handed the job to Dickerson, who is much worse.

We still get people saying players like Taveras at 3 million/year are a dime a dozen, which isn't true.

Taveras is average or slightly below average, at a good price. He's on pace to score over 100 runs. That's a bargain. I'm sure other teams have better leadoff hitters, because other teams often put one of their best hitters there.
I'm not concerned with comping Wily to the "average leadoff hitter", I'm more interested in comping him to his peer CF -- he comes out well there, considering his salary and the fact the Reds didn't have to give up talent in a trade to get him.

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Also doesn't change that he's relying on a small outfield and his speed to compensate for a lack of natural instincts.

I think that's Taveras in a nutshell. I've seen Taveras a lot and I would characterize his defense this way.... he's fast and he has an above average arm.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Taveras is OBP 355 and OPSing 733 so far, so he's just slightly below average.

Given where his performance last week pushed his overall numbers (now a wOBA=.340), if the season ended today, his production would be above average for his playing time both for his leather and lumber.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I have not seen dedicated threads or the amount of emotion attacking those 2 guys. Yeah, it gets mentioned in passing.

According to the stat page I pulled, Wily was posting about a 350 OBP.. I think a lot of people said they would be happy if he did that.. Yet we still get posts of people saying we should've just handed the job to Dickerson, who is much worse.

We still get people saying players like Taveras at 3 million/year are a dime a dozen, which isn't true.

Taveras is average or slightly below average, at a good price. He's on pace to score over 100 runs. That's a bargain. I'm sure other teams have better leadoff hitters, because other teams often put one of their best hitters there.
I'm not concerned with comping Wily to the "average leadoff hitter", I'm more interested in comping him to his peer CF -- he comes out well there, considering his salary and the fact the Reds didn't have to give up talent in a trade to get him.

The reason people are claiming that is due to the upgrade that would have been gained in LF. The argument can easily be made that Dickerson in CF and Monster Bat in LF would be an upgrade from Willy in CF and Dickerson/Hairston in LF. Right now the Reds are getting horrible production from LF and below average offense from CF. The potential upgrade from a power bat in LF would most likely offset the losses in CF. That's the gist of the "Willy was a poor target" arguments.

I'd say a .350 OBP is the bare minimum required for Willy to be passable given his extreme lack of slugging and average defense. So far, I'm content with what he's provided. That said, I'd still rather have seen a big bat acquired for LF.

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