South Korea's hosting of the next Nuclear Security Summit suggests that the United States will tackle North Korea more actively in the coming years as part of its global anti-proliferation initiatives, an American nuclear expert said.

At the inaugural summit in Washington D.C. in early April, which drew the leaders of 47 countries, South Korea was unanimously chosen as the host of the next meeting scheduled to take place in the first half of 2012.

It is known that U.S. President Barack Obama, who initiated the premier global security forum, proposed Seoul's hosting of the next summit during a telephone conversation with President Lee Myung-bak just before Lee flew to Washington to participate in the meeting.

Robert Gard, chairman of the Washington-based Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said Obama's backing of South Korea as the next host indicates that he would deal more sternly with North Korea.

``The North Korean nuclear crisis could have been one of his considerations when he picked South Korea,'' Gard told The Korea Times. ``I believe South Korea should keep communication channels open but limit assistance to humanitarian aid until North Korea agrees to engage in meaningful discussions regarding the achievement of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.''

Some experts here worry Seoul's hosting of the summit will make Pyongyang nervous and angry. Others hope it will be helpful for a quick resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue.

What's clear is that the event will create a new leadership role for South Korea in the global arena. Such a role is related to Obama's successful reframing of the nuclear terrorism issue, experts say.

Obama, like his predecessor, had not made a big departure from the conventional perception that U.S. presidents are preoccupied with the Middle East and that nuclear terrorism is basically a problem contained in that region.

But now, he has successfully changed that perception by linking challenges in the Middle East and East Asia by selecting Seoul as the next host, upgrading nuclear terrorism from a regional and sub-regional problem to a global one.

Gard, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former president of the National Defense University, said the first thing for South Korea to do as the host of the next nuclear summit is to ensure that fissile materials are secured tightly.

``Most of all, the South Korea summit should focus on consideration of reports by countries of actions they have taken to secure fissile materials and prevent their proliferation,'' Gard said.

``For South Korea, it should refuse to provide highly enriched uranium to other states, insist on taking back spent fuel from any reactor it provides to any other country and participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative, the U.S.-led initiative aimed at preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.''

As has been its habit over the years, the international community waits anxiously to see what North Korea will do next.

The six parties involved in the talks on denuclearizing North Korea must deliberate and act cooperatively in order to prevent it from exploiting fissures in the alliance to derail steps forward.

While relations between and among all of the six parties are important, no relationship is more important than the one between the United States and South Korea, Gard said.

``President Lee has refused to grant North Korea unconditional aid and instead tied any meaningful concessions to progress on denuclearization, thereby casting South Korea as the bad cop, in the classic American idiom, and leaving the United States to play good cop via the quixotic shuttle diplomacy,'' Gard said.

``This was a 180-degree reversal from the period when South Korea employed the 'Sunshine Policy' of unconditional engagement and the United States set as an unrealistic precondition to negotiations the complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of the North's nuclear program.

``As a result of U.S.-South Korea role reversal, North Korea has developed the so-called 'Tongmibongnam' tactic of engaging the United States and shunning South Korea,'' he said.

President Lee has previously said South Korea will help North Korea feed its people and modernize its economy if it cancels its nuclear weapons program.

Last year, he proposed a ``Grand Bargain'' initiative aimed at guaranteeing the North's security and economic assistance from the five other countries participating in the six-party denuclearization talks in exchange for the communist state's ending of its nuclear ambitions.

The North Korean nuclear issue is expected to top the agenda of the 2012 summit, which Seoul officials say may draw the leaders of more than 50 nations and deal with a broader spectrum of non-proliferation issues than in Washington.

``In South Korea, we hope the countries will produce some binding solutions to keep nuclear weapons from terrorist groups,'' a foreign ministry official said on condition of anonymity. ``The summit may focus on more effective countermeasures against threatening countries like North Korea and Iran.''

North Korean actions are often enigmatic, but there is no reason to doubt that the regime's fundamental objective is national survival.

This means that, as U.S. envoy on North Korea Stephen Bosworth once put it, ``Pyongyang sees its (nuclear) arsenal as a means to an end, not an end in itself, something U.S. leaders never understand.''

Chairman Gard said North Korea will fully denuclearize only when it has obtained the political arrangements that guarantee its survival. These arrangements include formal diplomatic relations with the United States, a peace agreement that officially ends the 1950-53 Korean War and integration into the global economy.
He called for gradual opening of North Korea instead of a sudden collapse.

``Some American hawks cannot accept that the United States lets a repressive government like North Korea's stay in power. The alternative, however, could be much worse,'' he said. ``Attempts at regime change might cause Pyongyang to become desperate and lash out violently at its immediate neighbor or launch a missile at U.S. forces stationed on Guam or Okinawa. A sudden change in government might unleash even greater human suffering or even outright war with South Korea, with all the frightening consequences."

Phased nuclear stockpile reductions by North Korea should be met by political, security and economic incentives from the six parties, he said.

``The hope should not be for an immediate change in the North's behavior, nor for regime change or collapse. The hope should be for a gradual opening of North Korea to the outside world,'' Gard said.

``This steady transition from rogue nuclear state to international stakeholder should be pursued with the full understanding that there will be setbacks. Kim Jong-il's eventual successor may seek to make life better for his people, and the six parties should provide every opportunity for him to do so.''