Sunday, July 30, 2017

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace and, as predicted last month, registrations in June surpassed the 100.000 units, for only the second time ever, representing a 38% growth YoY, with the YTD total up 42%, to over 450k, we are headed for a total sales number this year of around 1,1 million units, the first time the PEV market will reach seven digits in a year.

Interestingly, as June marks the first time the yearly PEV Global market share hits the 1% mark, we can say that Round One of the Electrification Game has been won, six and a half years later.

Anyway, back to Earth, 2017, in the models ranking, the Best Seller of the Month was the Tesla Model S, thanks to the usual last-month-of-the-quarter-peak (6.157 units), winning for the first time this year the Best Seller Of The Month award, but the real news was the rise to power of a nameplate that not long ago was thought to be doomed by its rulers, due to Mad Cow Fuell Cell disease.

Turns out Toyota has recovered from the disease and betted heavily on the Second Generation Prius PHEV, not only providing it with decent specs and less divisive looks regarding the standard Prius, but also competitive pricing (At least until the Ioniq PHEV starts to make itself noticed, but that's another story to be written in future editions), and production capability (Hear that, Chevrolet?), allowing it to sit for the first time ever in the PEV Iron Throne, with around 27.000 units in six months, which is almost as much units as it had in the whole year of 2012, its best sales year to date.

Looking below in the ranking, the other podium bearers are not too far from the Top Spot, while in #5 .we see the first position change, with the Zhidou D2 EV (4.714 deliveries, new record) surpassing the BAIC EC180, becoming also the highest ranked Chinese model.

As this is a special edition, we dig a little deeper, into the Top 20, where we can see seven Chinese models (#11 BYD e5, #13 SAIC eRX5, #14 JAC iEV6S, #15 Geely Emgrand EV, #16 BYD Tang, #18 BYD Song PHEV and #19 Chery eQ), making it nine models coming from China in the Top 20.

Thanks to a slow (Some say "snail paced"), but steady production increase, the Chevrolet Bolt it's starting to appear on the radar, in #12, so expect the long range Small MPVCUV/Compact Car to climb to the Top 10 later in the year.

Comparing with last year, while some models climbed positions, like the aforementioned Prius, or the Chinese Zhidou D2 EV and BAIC EC180, others dropped significantly, none more so than the BYD Tang, #16 now, when last year it ended in #3. Not enough rich people willing to buy an expensive BYD?

Other models dropping were the Chevrolet Volt, down from #4 to #9, or the Outlander PHEV (From #5 to #10, is it starting to become passé?).

In the Rookie section, we see two new models showing up, both Chinese compact PHEV SUV's, with the #13 Roewe eRX5 momentarily outrunning the #18 BYD Song PHEV. Are we witnessing the making of a new rivalry?

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, BEV's are once again leading the race with 64% share, exactly the same number as it ended in 2016.

Pl

WORLD

June

YTD

%

'16Pl

1

Toyota Prius Prime/PHV

6.038

26.867

6

64

2

Nissan Leaf

4.647

26.591

6

1

3

Tesla Model S

6.157

25.450

6

2

4
5
6

Tesla Model XZhidou D2 EVBAIC EC180

4.684
4.714
2.563

21.55018.69317.939

5
4
4

7
32

42

7

Renault Zoe

4.251

17.324

4

8

8

BMW i3

2.387

14.531

3

6

9

Chevrolet Volt

2.286

13.391

3

4

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

BYD e5

Chevrolet Bolt (1)

SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV

JAC iEV6S

Geely Emgrand EV

BYD TangHyundai Ioniq Electric
BMW 330e
BYD Song PHEV

Chery eQ

1.986
3.206
2.223
1.541
3.001
478
1.573
1.314
1.423
4.552
3.466

12.78710.8569.4409.2058.1977.9827.5027.2097.1246.8386.605

3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1

5
17

83
N/A
61
13
3
38
27
N/A
15

TOTAL

100.918

452.329

(1) - Includes Opel Ampera-e

Manufacturers - BYD Rises to Third

BYD has set an ambitious goal of doubling sales regarding 2016, and after a slow start, the Chinese brand is pushing hard to reach its own goals, in June it delivered a record 11.198 units, allowing it to jump two positions to Third.Will BYD beat its own record in July? It all points to that, the question will be by how much, and will it be able to beat the all time record of 14.029 deliveries, set by Tesla last March.

My bet is that BYD will only be able to do it in September...The month it should reach the yearly leadership.

As this is a Full Year edition, we dig a littler deeper into the Top 20, where we see Zotye in an unusually low #14, with Ford and Chery also dropping significantly, while Hyundai shows up for the first time, in #17, expect both Hyundai and sister brand Kia to continue climbing in the ranking in the near future, as they expand production capacity and product lines.

Pl

WORLD

June

YTD

%

'16Pl

1

Tesla

10.841

47.000

10

2

2

BMW

8.815

41.715

9

3

3

BYD

11.198

34.802

8

1

4

BAIC

5.147

30.151

7

5

5
6
7

Nissan
Toyota
Chevrolet

5.059
6.038

4.510

29.055
26.920

22.847

6
6
5

4
30
8

8

Renault

4.699

19.549

4

10

9

Zhidou

4.714

18.718

4

14

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Volkswagen
Mitsubishi
Mercedes

SAIC RoeweZotye
FordJMCHyundaiChery

JAC
Audi

3.565
2.255
2.744
2.367
3.743
1.818
2.102
2.013
3.466
3.001
1.760

16.42714.83114.14313.77012.83710.86410.56710.2329.4259.4018.562

4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2

6
9
13157
11
19
24
12
16
20

Looking at current segment leaders:

A Segment / City Cars - Zhidou D2 EV and BAIC EC180 are doing their own race for #1;

Saturday, July 29, 2017

It finally happened, after a whole year of hype, the final version of the Tesla Model 3 was shown to the public and their specs released, it is not a home run like the Tesla Model S was in 2012, back then it was a car light-years ahead of the competition, but on the other hand, the Model 3 doesn't seem like a screw up, like the initial Model X.

Tesla Model 3 specs:

Price – $35,000

Standard Battery

Range: 220 miles (EPA estimated)

Supercharging rate: 130 miles of range per 30 minutes

Home charging rate: 30 miles of range per hour (240V outlet, 32A)

More or less in the same ball park i had predicted, but i had the secret hope that Tesla would surprise us here, in order to keep the untold Tesla meme: "The best EV in the World in every single spec". Not anymore, Tesla...

Long Range Battery – $9,000

Range: 310 miles

Supercharging rate: 170 miles of range per 30 minutes

Home charging rate: 37 miles of range per hour (240V outlet, 40A)

Slightly less than i had expected, but the 330-ish miles range are probably saved for the AWD version. Still great, though, there will be years until someone gets close to these numbers at 44k price. Thing is, 44k it's not mass market anymore...

One question on the charging: Wouldn't it be easier just to have one charging rate for both battery packages? Sounds cheap from Tesla to do these kind of things...

Trunk: 425 480-ish Liters

A decent trunk for a midsize car (D-Segment in Euro Speak), but let's not forget that part of that goes in the frunk, so expect something like 50l in the front and 430l in the back.One minus point of the 3 is being a sedan (A body style going on extinction route, even in the US), which could be a deal breaker for some.

Personally, i think it is the best EV for the money right now, but because the distance between it and the competition is not as big as expected (Especially in standard battery spec), it will all depend on each buyer tastes and needs.

Coincidentally, this June plug-ins reached 1% share of the global automotive market, so one can say that the first round of the game is won, innovators, tree-huggers, tekkies and new tech-addicts have jumped into the PEV wagon, thanks to the Tesla Roadster and Model S, Nissan Leaf I, Chevrolet Volt I & II, among others.

Kicking off the round two of the game, which is to win the more progressive part of the mainstream buyers and reach two digits share, were the Chevrolet Bolt and Toyota Prius Prime landing last December, with the yesterday launch of the Tesla Model 3 being the Second chapter for this story, and the upcoming Leaf II the Third, these last three models are all set to present previously unseen sales levels for PEVs next year (All above 100k), so with the help of the Chinese market, we could see exponential growth in 2018 happening every month, hopefully for the next few years.

In the next days there will antagonistic comments (Think Shaquille O'Neal vs Charles Barkley) bickering over what happened, with Tesla Haters and Fanbois sharing their biased views on the car, on September 6, when the Leaf II is revealed, the same story will happen all over again, with Leaf haters and fanbois in heated discussions over the car, when in reality we should all salute new entries into the market, even if they are crap (*Cough* Mini Countryman PHEV *Cough*), because this should be a collective effort into promoting transport electrification.

Then again, it's 2017, "Us vs Them" Era, who am i kidding? Reason and rationality are now largely underrated, let the hate games begin!

The European passenger
plug-in market had a near-record month, with 28.000 registrations, up 54% over
the same month last year. Year-to-date, the market is up 30% this year, with the
EV share now standing at a record 1.5%.

The Renault Zoe is a bit like cyclist Chris Froome, it seems no
one can get them out of the Yellow Jersey, with the French hatchback being once
again the Best Seller last month, with the Tesla models profiting from their
usual last-month-of-quarter peak to climb a couple of positions in the ranking.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Renault Zoe – With the
quality glitches now a thing of the past, it
was all hands on deck at Renault, with the French Zoe scoring a record 4.189 units, up 73% YoY, enough to win
for the sixth time in a row the Monthly Best Seller status in Europe. Or all
2017 trophies…As for Zoe individual performances across Europe, record results
were the recurring trend, like in Germany (680 units), Norway (428), Austria
(237) or Portugal (112), all while managing to post a positive result at the
all-important domestic market, with 1.882 units.

#2 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch was up 161%,
to 1.634 units, with 3 out 4 units
sold being of the BEV variety, a great contrast with what happened 12 months
ago, when the Rex variety used to outsell the all-electric version. What
extended range does, uh? Anyway, solid results for the BMW model, especially in
Norway, with 420 units, all of them being BEV, but also in its home Germany (315
registrations). Looking ahead, expect deliveries to slowly drop, as people
anticipate the revised version, coming later in the year.

#3 Nissan Leaf – Thanks to deep
discounting, the ageing hatch is resisting the newer offerings, reaching Third
Place, managing even to grow(!) 4% YoY to 1.590
units. With steady sales in its stronghold markets (France, UK and Norway)
and increasing significantly in Sweden (123 units, up 112% YoY), the veteran
model is keeping momentum by appealing to a new demographic, Bargain Hunters
looking for the current best value for the money EV out there.

#4 Tesla Model X – Back at the Top 5, the
EV Scene favorite SUV recorded 1.552 deliveries
last month, managing to outsell for the first time in Europe its Model S
brethren. Is the Model 3 long shadow starting to dent the Model S sales? But I
digress, back to the Model X, the largest market for the SUV/Minivan-that-thinks-it’s-a-sports-car was Norway, with a record
609 deliveries (Sarcasm mode on – “What
a surprise!”), but it also did well in Switzerland (156 units), Germany (136)
and the Netherlands (121). With this model not being directly affected by the
Model 3 cannibalization effect or by close competition, expect this model to
continue to be a regular here, being only limited by its (very) high price.

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – After a
rare positive month in May, the Japanese SUV is back at the depressing sales
trend, ending June 1.435 registrations,
down 8% YoY. Mitsubishi found a golden nugget in Scandinavia, more specifically
Norway (349 units) and Sweden (271), but in the long run, it remains to be seen
if that will be enough to keep the Japanese SUV among Europe’s top sellers.

YTD Ranking – Zoe reinforces #1, Nissan Leaf climbs to #2.

Looking at the YTD
ranking, the top positions remained stable, with the Zoe increasing its lead,
with the most notable changes being the Tesla Model S returning to the Fifth
Spot and its Model X sibling climbing two positions to #8.

Other models on
the rise are Audi A3 e-Tron, up one position to #11, thanks to 943 units, a
year best, while the VW e-Golf was Sixth in June, with a record 1409 deliveries,
allowing it to jump to #13. Comparing with the PHEV Golf GTE, the new 36kWh
super-sized e-Golf BEV outsold it in June in a 2-to-1 ratio, when last year it
was the GTE outselling the 24kWh e-Golf on a 2-to-1 ratio.

So, as with the
BMW i3, the longer the range of the BEV version, the higher the sales of the
all-electric version, consequently dropping the sales of the PHEV version.

Looking below the
Top 20, there are some hot sellers bubbling up, like the recently arrived Mini
Countryman PHEV (510 units in June, new record), or the Opel Ampera-e
(Chevrolet Bolt in Euro-Speak), registering 392 deliveries last month, which is
a drop on the ocean of orders that Opel has across the Continent (There are
more than 4.000 in Norway alone).

One advice to GM:
Instead of producing units mainly to California, only to win dust on local
dealerships, why not starting to allocate production for the orders already
made in Europe? I know ZEV credits are nice and all that, but there are more
ways to win money…And while you are at it, in Canada, South Korea and the rest
of the US, there are also buyers waiting for months (Years?) for their Chevy
Bolt, you know?

Now is the time to
see if The General walks the walk, or if they just talk, talk.

Looking at the manufacturers
ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated on the Top Spot, followed by Renault
(14%, up 1%) in Second Place, while the Third Place is being hardly fought by Volkswagen
(11%, up 1%), Nissan (10%, down 1%), Tesla and Mercedes, these last two with 9%
share. With the Wolfsburg brand now in Third and making the restyled Golf
plug-ins at full speed, expect it to race with Renault for the Second position
soon.