Oregon's $1 billion wine industry has enjoyed unprecedented success in recent years, riding a wave of international acclaim for its flagship grape, pinot noir.

But one prominent Oregon winemaker is now sounding an alarm. If he's right, the state's wine industry, just like the rapid rise and dizzying crashes of the dot.com and housing sectors before it, may already have sown the seeds of its own upheaval.

"What we have coming," said Bill Hatcher, managing partner with A to Z Wineworks in Dundee, "is a grape glut of biblical proportions."

Hatcher estimates that by 2012 the amount of acreage planted in pinot noir grapes will be almost double what it was as recently as 2005.

That result, if realized, could drop the bottom out of the state's wine industry. Profits could fall precipitously and a number of Oregon's 400 wineries, particularly those locked into pricey, long-term grape contracts, could find themselves facing disaster.

Some highly-regarded Oregon vintners, however, strongly disagree with him.

Dick Shea, in his 20 years growing grapes and making wine in Oregon, said he has yet to see any significant growth in the supply side that's not been met by the unfulfilled demand for quality pinot noir.

"Like any marketplace, there are always going to be some people who are bullish and some who are bearish," Shea said. "I'm certainly on the bullish side of Oregon pinot noir."

Hatcher should know what he's talking about since his own business, which thrives by buying excess grapes on the wholesale market and blending them for sale under his own label, took off in 2001 on the back of the last industry-wide grape glut.

"Most of what went into the first A to Z bottlings was going into $40 bottles of wine that other people couldn't sell," he said. "You'd know the name of every winery that went into our wine."

A number of factors figure into Hatcher's forecast of another looming glut. Chief among them are dramatic consolidation of wine distributors, which down the road could make it difficult for fledgling labels to sell their wines; steady but hardly earth-shaking sales levels; a slowing national economy; and, most significantly, a "frenzy" of new plantings.

"If we planted nothing at all after this year, we'll still be looking at an enormous excess of fruit," he said. "The growing divide between supply and demand is just going to keep on intensifying."

Hatcher's thesis is by no means met with unanimous agreement from industry analysts and producers. And if any of his assumptions are wrong, they say, his conclusion could turn out very differently.

"Bill's model is fine," said Jack Irvine, whose Portland accounting firm represents more than 100 Oregon wineries. "It just doesn't take into consideration some critical information."

Hatcher, for instance, is predicting that this year's harvest, which just this week is entering the critical "bloom" phase, will match if not exceed last year's bumper crop. The resulting supply increase, Hatcher said, could pave the way for a glut down the road.

In Irvine's view, either of two factors could dampen that possibility.

The first is that seemingly insatiable national demand for Oregon pinot noir, some of it still attributable to the 2005 movie "Sideways," will soak up whatever the state can produce for years to come.

The second is that growers, if faced by the prospect of too big a harvest, will merely do what they've done in the past by pruning excess grapes prior to picking. That ensures that all of their remaining grapes ripen sufficiently and that the total supply doesn't swamp demand.

David Adelsheim, founder of Adelsheim Vineyard in Newberg and one of Oregon's wine pioneers, doesn't share Hatcher's view of an imminent wine-grape glut, in part because of an emerging trend he said is likely to keep the supply of grapes line with demand.

"The vast majority of grapes being planted in Oregon right now are being planted by the wineries that will use them," he said, adding that the huge independent vineyards common in California are rare in Oregon. "Only total idiots are betting they can produce 100 percent more grapes than they can use or sell."

For his part, Hatcher is optimistic that established brands will do fine in the years ahead. But most of those wineries are already at capacity and have little room to expand, he said. New operations that could help the industry generate the new sales it needs to absorb soaring grape production may not gain traction in the marketplace for some time.

And then there's the matter of overall sales. With the exception of 2005, when case sales of Oregon pinot noir soared by 45 percent, the level has averaged only 2.5 percent to 5 percent since 2004.

Hatcher's own forecast, which assumes annual sales increases of 7 percent, still predicts huge oversupply within four to five years.

"Everything adds up to a situation where there simply aren't enough sales to absorb all the new grapes coming on line," Hatcher said. "If that plays out into the future, the Oregon wine industry will be facing a very different landscape than it is today."