Pew: Obama 50, Romney 46
By ALEXANDER BURNS |
6/21/12 5:41 PM EDT
In results that track closely with the AP-GfK poll released earlier today, the Pew Research Center finds Mitt Romney getting close to Obama thanks to the president's weakness on economy, but not quite closing the gap:

Voter preferences are more closely divided between Obama and Romney than they were in May, when Obama led Romney by seven points (49% to 42%). Currently, 50% favor Obama while 46% back Romney. Yet it is notable that in eight general election matchups since last October, Romney has never led Obama. …

The slide in economic optimism points to Romney’s most important advantage in the race. Nearly half of registered voters (49%) say Romney would do the best job of improving economic conditions, compared with 41% who favor Obama.

Yet Romney trails Obama by wide margins on connecting well with ordinary people, honesty and truthfulness, consistency, displaying good judgment and several other personal dimensions.

Romney’s personal favorability has risen by 12 points since March – from just 29% then to 41% today. Still, more voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney than a favorable view (47% vs. 41%). No previous candidate in the past 20 years has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in the campaign cycle.

There have been so many polls since the end of the Republican primaries that it's easy to get the sense that the race is moving around a lot, but in reality most of the dynamics flagged at the top of the Pew poll have been fairly stable. The demographic breakdown in the poll also follows a familiar pattern: Obama wins voters aged 18-49 by 11 points; Romney wins voters over 50 by 4 points. Obama wins women by 15 points; Romney wins men by 10 points. Romney wins whites by 13 points; Obama wins non-whites.

When you even have moderate income folks like Sev and welfare recipients like larry wilson thinking Romney is good for the country, you know we're a nation of idjits. </div></div>

You must have not been paying attention Hondo.

I have never endorsed Romney. </div></div>

You didn't actually expect him to deal with te truth did you?

Soflasnapper

07-11-2012, 04:58 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sev</div><div class="ubbcode-body">We wont know which way the wind is blowing for several months yet.

Remember Carter was ahead of Reagan until the end. </div></div>

Yep, I think we have a true answer, folks! I must agree.

Soflasnapper

07-11-2012, 04:59 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Odd that they left out the poll that has mst accurately called the last several elections? </div></div>

They most accurately call it only toward the end of the race. We're not there yet, so that poll is playing its fast and loose games in the runup to the end, and is not accurate at this point of the race.

I assume their Oct 30th or around there polling will be reliable enough. Equally, I assume they are unreliable at this time.

LWW

07-11-2012, 06:06 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Soflasnapper</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: LWW</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Odd that they left out the poll that has mst accurately called the last several elections? </div></div>

They most accurately call it only toward the end of the race. </div></div>

What a risibly wrong headed thing to believe.

Accuracy can only ultiately be measured against the actual result.

Your argument that they were wrong until they were right is simply bizarre.