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Posted at May 12, 2015, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Watch Dambisa Moyo discuss the economic and political risks of “Tomorrow’s World” at Google Zeitgeist 2015

Dambisa Moyo, best-selling author of “Dead Aid” (2010), “How the West Was Lost” (2012) and “Winner Takes All” (2012), spoke at Google Zeitgeist 2015 on the global economic and political risks we cannot ignore.

In a keynote titled “Tomorrow’s World”, Dr. Moyo puts forward that the defining challenge that we face today is how to create economic growth, and ensure that this growth continues in the emerging markets. Organisations such as the IMF have forecast that global growth rates will plummet down to 2% by 2060, almost 50% lower than what we’ve seen over the past 50 years.

Dr. Moyo demonstrates that there is also a clear rise in political disorder; in 2014, the Economist Intelligence Unit delivered a report saying that 65 of the 150 countries they investigated would see significant increases in political and social risk.

Dr. Moyo goes on to stress that these risks may stem from the fact that we live in a very unique time of change. In the 1960s the global population was 3 billion, today it is over 7 billion, and by the time population levels are predicted by demographers to plateau in 2100 it’s expected to reach 10 billion. As a result, there is significant pressure for governments to expand and provide opportunities. She believes that we must not become globally indifferent, by calling to task our political and economic systems and challenging them to be the best that they can be.

Watch the video above for more!

For more information on how to book Dambisa Moyo as a speaker for your conference or client event, please get in touch with Jeana Webster at jeana@chartwellspeakers.com or call on +1 972 385 1021.

Posted at April 25, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Political Risk in Frontier Markets: Exclusive Q&A with Jonathan Berman

In an exclusive Q&A for ATG|Chartwell’s quarterly INSIGHT magazine, Jonathan Berman, a leading analyst on the strategic & operational challenges in Frontier Markets, talks opportunities and emerging market politics.

Many see growth in frontier markets but are concerned about corrupt government or just dysfunctional governments. Are they right to be worried?
They’re right to consider it. For some, the remedy is to build an effective relationship with government. An effective relationship with most frontier market government begins with understanding the demands on them. In many cases, the government is not fully equipped to respond to those demands, and they’re open to help. That’s an opportunity for companies and investors. GE and IBM are two big companies doing that well today, and building political capital as a result. Even a consumer goods companies like Unilever, which has little government business, has a well-defined view on big public needs in emerging markets, and that helps drive the significant earnings they enjoy in frontier markets. Companies shouldn’t displace government in these countries, but they should become more active partners with government.

Some markets which were highly touted last year are in turmoil now. How should I think about instability and political risk?
The companies and investors doing well in frontier markets discern long term opportunity through the fog of short-term political or even military turmoil. Nigeria’s a good example. With a violent Moslem movement in the North and dramatic tensions in the ruling class, Nigeria is repeatedly described in the media as “on the brink”. That’s true, but not much of a risk. The brink is where Nigerian politics resides. Most political deals don’t happen until everyone is facing an apocalypse (commercial deals run a bit smoother). Meanwhile, rapid growth goes forward in sectors from agribusiness to retail. The investor who can discern that habit from an actual crisis can find significant opportunities.

Are political connections necessary to succeed in frontier markets?
Political wisdom is necessary. Political connections are useful but not always necessary. I talked about this recently with one of the most successful private equity investors in frontier markets, who’s also a friend. Any deal that relies on political relations is a red flag for him, if only because it’s a risk he can’t calculate. Are there some people getting rich on contacts? Sure, but it’s not much of a business model. For investors, it’s more important to understand the political dynamics influencing an investment. For operating companies, it’s more valuable to engage with politicians to solve big problems.

What affect is the internet having on emerging markets politics that I haven’t heard already?
In Egypt and elsewhere, we’ve all seen that social media connects the population, in ways that can threaten governments. What you hear less about is the commercial opportunity in deploying social media and digital to help governments meet their populations’ demands. A lot of governments see the Arab Spring and realize they need to get ahead of that trend. They are using social media to learn what constituents want. It’s often the first time they’ve had to do that. They are also using data rich solutions to deliver it. Kenya relieved traffic in its capital using little more than ten cameras and a good algorithm. Imagine what they could do with more.

Posted at October 9, 2013, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on John Hulsman now writing for City A.M.

John Hulsman, the top Washington DC analyst who is now based in Germany, has been writing some terrific journalism for CityAM, the opinionated and highly popular City newspaper.

John used to be lead Europe analyst for Heritage, one of Washington’s biggest and most influential think tanks. He’s also written some best selling books – most notably Ethical Realism (Potter Style, 2001) – read the NY Times review here, and ‘To Begin the World Over Again (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) – click here to read more.

John is a natural provocateur – a brilliant speaker and debater who combines a DC training with a Jeffersonian / Eisenhower Republican world view and a perch (and family) in Germany, Europe’s most important state. He has strong views on US decline and its consequences, the rise of the BRICs and the future of the Eurozone. Here is a taster of John’s CityAM journalism …

Shutdown: US political dysfunction is worse than you think

“THE PREDICTABILITY of what is unfolding following the US government shutdown approaches tragedy, but ends in farce. The much-maligned Republican Party is almost entirely right on the merits of doing away with Barack Obama’s healthcare programme (Obamacare has been the key sticking point in the fruitless negotiations over the budget). Already this many-headed monster is a monument to the law of unintended consequences; it suppresses full time hiring and is almost wholly indecipherable.

And the US hates the thing. The latest 29 September CNN poll shows 39 per cent favouring Obamacare, with 51 per cent against. But this deeply unpopular centrepiece of Obama’s legacy is about all he has going for him. Both his immigration reform and gun control bills are hopelessly stalled in Congress. After the Syria debacle, the White House is also seen as muddled at best over the general thrust of its foreign policy, with a nonsensical emphasis on the Middle East replacing the promising pivot to Asia. This is a failed presidency on its last legs.”

Obama is risking disaster for the US as his administration abandons Asia

“WHILE all eyes are on the horrifying sight of American political dysfunction, an equally dangerous long-term threat to the country lurks just beneath the surface: the administration’s reflexive and disastrous foreign policy pivot away from Asia and towards the thankless Middle East.

orget the comforting nostrums that the US government can focus on more than one foreign policy issue area at a time. In practice, barring world war, this is simply not true, as there is neither the manpower nor the funds to do more than concentrate on a few key things.

As such, strategic choices operationally matter. That is what makes Barack Obama’s renewed emphasis on the Middle East, a region of second-rate importance and intractable problems, nothing less than catastrophic. Most importantly, it puts an end to the only promising US foreign policy initiative of the past few years, the administration’s pivot to Asia.”