The Honda CR-Z. A beautiful machine that would finally marry that elusive dream couple, sport and fuel economy, for less than $20,000.

It had to be a hit. Just had to…

Maybe it was my daily commuter that blinded me to the oncoming reality. A 2001 Honda Insight has been my faithful commuting companion for over 3 years and 45,000 miles. 55 mpg average. 63 MPG in the latest run, and all the fun one can have while plowing through the winding one lane roads of North Georgia.

Gee Steve? Who would not scoop up a car that only seats two, drives slower than most, and offers a seating position somewhere between an old Porsche and a new casket?

The CR-Z had plenty to offer me and about 2404 enlightened buyers for the first half of 2012. I get the reality now. Two seat cars are the automotive version of the ‘not-so-big-house’. Everyone says they want one. But when it comes time to choose between the well made 1600 sq. ft. house, and the 3200 sq. ft. McMansion, nearly everyone picks the porkers.

But still, I get vexed and flustered thinking about it. 6-speed. 40+ MPG potential. Fun to drive. The perfect party for the road, which no one bothered to even consider an RSVP.

Oh well… guess it’s time to admit I blew that call. But how about you? What was your worst prediction when it comes to cars?

82 Comments on “Question Of The Day: What Was Your Worst… Automotive Prediction?...”

After reading all the hoopla from every auto media source at that time, I predicted that the GM X-cars would be a big home run and would change automotive history, well in a way, it almost helped kill the American auto industry, so in a way, I was correct but for the wrong reason.

-Ford could not possibly screw up the 1996 Taurus (oops)
-Kia would die (now I’d take an Optima over two Sonatas)
-The G8 would save Pontiac (too little, too late)
-The 2008 CTS would be the first in a string of hits for the new “standard of the world” (half right, just subtract the string)
-The 2011 Mustang would wipe the floor with the Camaro in the sales race (doh!)

I thought the Suzuki Kizashi would be a hit and would make big numbers for the company, essentially putting Suzuki back on buyers’ maps. It is a larger, more mainstream vehicle (other than the name); is arguably better looking than Camry/Accord; and it drives quite well. Instead, they sell a couple hundred a month, and people still don’t know that Suzuki sells anything other than motorcycles. I still say Kizashi is one of the most underrated cars on the U.S. market, but I was wrong about it being a sales success.

“Two seat cars are the automotive version of the ‘not-so-big-house’. Everyone says they want one”

No, no one says they want a two-seat car. The people who buy them, buy them. The people who don’t, don’t. But most car buyers want at least vestigal second rows, much like, while they don’t want a McMansion, they do want at least a two-bedroom rather than a bachelor apartment.

(note: I think I said, personally, I’d buy a CR-Z if it had child-seat anchors in the second row. )

I edited a picture of a later Focus sedan in paint to figure out how to make it look better, somehow Ford found that picture and is using it for a face lift.

I thought the old Panthers would still be around.
I thought the WRX would still be around.
I thought the new new Beetle would have a Golf platform like the original, but it has a Jetta platform.
I thought the Corvette would be ruined, it wasn’t.
I thought the new Camaro would be lighter.

Back when BMW released the 2002 7 series, I thought it was an ugly design that people would never adjust to, but in fact, people for the most part got used to it and its iDrive system started a new trend. I guess as Chris Bangle said himself “It takes humans a while to adjust to newness.”

I’m with you on the CR-Z. The idea is good but the execution was definitely lacking.

I was absolutely wrong about the new Camaro. When I saw it, I thought “Why would anyone want this ugly, plasticky, dogbaby taking up space in their garage?”. I figured they’d sell ok in the very beginning on name alone. Then sales would taper off once the initial “Hey the Camaro is back!” concept wore off.

I thought Porsche had jumped the shark with the Cayenne and that smart shoppers would see through this cynical attempt to separate them from their money. Then, once again, I suspected that the Panamera was just too big and ugly to succeed. I guess I was too close to the brand of old (was driving a 1984 911 Carrera at the time) to understand that weird rear-engine sports cars weren’t what most members of the buying public thought of as the Porsche brand.

I was certain that when VW decontented the Passat and Jetta, it would be the automotive blunder of the decade. It turns out I haven’t a clue about what the “average” person wants, living as I do in my little bubble.

Thought the Bangle designs would begin the inevitable decline of BMW but, as a steaming example of “no accounting for taste” they sold more cars than ever. On some level BMW had to be surprised and confused at that result. Notice how they gingerly redesigned the succesor to the E46? They dodged a bullet which coincidentaly is the shape of the 5 series im referencing. A chromed out, painted eyelid, A$$ like a box truck 5 seriesfor the masses. Still trying to get my head around the E60 M5. Even with the M technic gear and the V10 its a head scratcher. Several of them in my neighborhood that the owners shed a tear everytime I back my E39 M5 out of the garage.

I knew that was a disaster coming when during the first combined executive meeting, the M-B execs showed up in the thier pullman limos they had flown over while the Chryco execs carpooled in minivans. The chyrco execs referred to the company as Daimler-Chrysler, while the German execs referred to Chrysler as business unit 28 (or 29 not sure), but the seeds of disaster were sown there and then.

Nothing I am always right about everything auto related ( Never admit your mistakes they may come back to haunt you) but that whole ” people will not lease cars they are to smart to have a long term rental and than return it and get nothing for it idea.” … well maybe not my best thought

I too thought the marriage between Chrysler and Mercedes is a great idea. We’ll soon have Mercedes-quality Chryslers! Instead, we got Chrysler-quality Mercedes… And I wouldn’t have though a company with Mercedes’ reputation could mismanage Chrysler so badly.

Well, the handicap here is how congruent your tastes are with those of most people.

In my case, I keep saying that people will see CUVs for what they are: a less practical version of an AWD minivan that offer no significant additional off-road or deep snow capability. But people buy Ford Explorers, not Ford Flex’es.

Like some others, I was amazed at the success of the Cayenne, not to mention the other expensive German SUVs . . . which proves the power of branding.

I, too thought that Taurus X/Freestyle should be popular, once Ford scrapped the CVT and the inadequate 3 liter engine.

As for Steve’s error with the CRZ, it’s clear that he’s very idiosyncratic. He has the Prius gene but likes to drive. There are few people like that. Most people who have the Prius gene are all about saving the planet and maxing out their fuel economy but whose lack of interest in driving makes them oblivious to the poor to fair driving characteristics of those cars. (See, the commercial success of the Prius C, which even Consumer Reports says sucks). As the owner of a 2-seater, I think I can speak for most 2-seat owners in saying that we accept the limitation of being able to carry only one passenger in exchange for having a car that is truly fun to drive . . . which very much leaves out the CRZ. And, IIRC, the CRZ’s fuel economy is not all that great either, not surprising because Honda’s half-baked hybrid system is . . . half-baked and should have been replaced with a true hybrid system years ago . . . except Honda doesn’t want to pay patent license fees to Toyota and doesn’t want to build a series hybrid like GM’s Volt.

Isn’t the fun to drive quotient also a function of the roads you drive on as well? Living in the city and commuting on crowded city streets, or “highways” with camera monitored speed limits of 40-55mph – everything inside the DC limits, that is – even a “fun” car has limited appeal over the efficiency and practicality of a “boring” car like the Prius.

As for my mistake, I follow electric cars and thought that Think had a good thing going and would be popular in dense urban centers. Oops. Then I thought that Bright had a good Idea for a superlightweight electric delivery van – after all, I see Frito Lay’s Newton electric trucks toodling along at 10 under the speed limit about every day.

I thought that the Lincoln Zephyr (later MKZ) and Mercury Milan would be laughed out of existence with their obvious badge engineering of the Ford Fusion plus oversized taillights reminiscent of the Olds Alero.

Well, the MKZ lives on, and the Milan probably would have also, if not for the killing of Mercury.

I predicted that the Ford Explorer Sport Trac would sell like gangbusters. The blend of pick-up truck utility and SUV seating comfort seemed brilliant to me at the time. Discontinued in 2010 due to poor sales, although to be fair it had a nine year run. I guess people want either pickups or SUVs, but not a blend of both.

Ford and GM still sell tons of 4-seat pickups which offer the exactly same blend of utility and seating that you mention, so the market is clearly there. Sport Trac was just too small, too expensive, too thirsty. Pretty much went the way of Ranger.

Right about the Sport Trac: all compromises with no noticeable benefits. Why buy a smaller vehicle when the full size truck is priced roughly the same, gets the same fuel economy, and has more capacity in every way?

Way back when Dodge went to coil springs on trucks, I would have signed a guarantee that said two things: 1. Ford and Chevy trucks are dead/going to be nearly wiped out (at least until they caught up.) 2. The era of leaf springs is over.

Turns out: 1. Poorly done coil springs on a poorly done truck are not a game changer. 2. Well done leaf springs on a well done vehicle have no real disadvantage unless you push a vehicle to the margins of a narrow few of it’s many limits, and generally speaking , leaf springs are there for a reason.

I figured that the CRZ would be a flop, but I had once presumed that Honda would have a bit more success with hybrids generally. What I didn’t foresee is that the execution would be so lacking.

I didn’t expect VW’s recent efforts to build US market share to be particularly successful. The jury is still out with respect to the long haul, but in the short run, they’ve done far better than I would have thought.

The federal automotive task force did a vastly better job than I was anticipating.

I thought the new for 1995 Chrysler Cirrus/Dodge Stratus were going to finally make American cars competitive in the midsize segment (Motor Trend at least agreed, COTY award). Begged my mother to replace her 1990 Accord with one. Good thing she igored me, that Accord lasted until a crash in 2007. Pretty sure there were 0 1995 Cirruses (Cirri?) on the road in 2007.

I counter that with me being a huge proponent for Hyundai/Kia since 2005-2006ish. Between a rental Kia Amanti (they were fugly for sure, but as nice as our GS300 inside) and a Hyundai Sonata, I was amazed, hadn’t driven one since my Aunt’s 1992 Accent (which lasted over 10 yrs too). There’s now a 2011 Sonata and Genesis Coupe in the family thanks to my recommendations, and they are beloved.

I echo Subcompact Culture the Suzuki Kishasi should be a home run. Drive one and you will see. My son bought one and it is a real winner.
I figured Toyota would not weather their recall storm of 09 and 10. Those boys really haven’t seemed to miss a beat. Those appliances sell like well er appliances. One or two in every home it seems.
I also figured GM would not survive beyond their bankruptcy.

I thought BMW would always make cars that I’d want. I thought Porsche would continue to make innovative new sports cars. I still remember reading about Mercedes-Benz’ modular 3 valve engines and thinking that someone was having a laugh at automotive journalists’ expense. Surely that was the sort of garbage that GM would produce, not Mercedes-Benz! In hindsight, maybe they shouldn’t have torn down that wall.

I think we all thought DCX would be a success, but in our defense that was a bit of a bait-and-switch with the phony “merger of equals” BS that caught even the Chrysler execs off-guard.

More directly car-related: the first time I saw a Cadillac Escalade in 1998 or 99, all I could think of was “Cimarron on stilts.” Surely Americans have gotten smart enough after all these years to see through slapping a badge on the front of a GMC Yukon Denali (which already came with wood and leather) and upping the price by 10 grand, right?

I literally broke into a laughing fit the first time I saw a GMT435 Escalade in the late ’90s. Now, 13 years 3 kids and a boat later, I have a Yukon XL Denali in the family. Not quite as blingy as the Escalade, but still a tarted-up Suburban.

I was confident that no one would pay near-Audi or BMW prices for Ford products, including some that are cursed with the 3.5 liter tractor motor (anyone who describes the 3.5 as anything other than relatively unrefined, at the least, is either insincere or not knowledgeable about the competition).

In 1996, I thought the CVT transmission would be economical and indestructible. I even invented one, constructing a mockup which I later threw in a lake.

I figured people would get at least 30 years from their vehicles with the advent of plastic body panels, and plastic truck beds.

When I found out about the Volt having a drivetrain I wanted to see forever in an automobile, I was ready to load up on GM stock. Thought they would sell like CamCords. Glad I didn’t when I found out how much they would cost, and how politically fanatical people are.

I thought the Panther would never get axed due to it’s huge fleet market.

I thought the Ford GT would still be around to battle the top tier Vettes and the Viper.

I said the Skyline would never make it to these shores. After all, the real Silvia never came here because it would take sales from the Z.

In 2001, and again in 2008, I was sure people would come to their senses, fling all their full size SUV’s into a fire, and grab minivans.

I thought Suzuki would be dead in NA by 2000 after seeing a “dealership” inside the local Subaru dealer.

When I first saw Hyundai’s with a 10yr warranty, I thought it was “cocky” and they would eat it for sure.

“In 2001, and again in 2008, I was sure people would come to their senses, fling all their full size SUV’s into a fire, and grab minivans. ”

Problem is, minivans don’t offer an appreciable fuel economy premium over a full size SUV. A heavy breadbox shaped vehicle is inefficient, regardless of the fact that it may have a 6.2L v8 or a 3.5L v6. Either vehicle is still moving a lot of poorly shaped mass around. I get a reliable 16MPG out of my wife’s ’08 XL Denali in mostly around town driving (closer to 18.5 in the rare instance I drive the family on a few hundred mile trip), vs. the 18.5MPG my father in law averages with his Caravan(it may get 23MPG on a trip). That’s a premium I can live with to not drive a minivan. Plus, the truck platform SUV is infinitely easier to service than the miracle of modern packaging unit body FWD minivan.

1) Ford would drop the Explorer brand like a hot rock after the exploding tire debacle

2) That the G8 and Solstice would save Pontiac

3) That Buick was a dead brand walking and had no redemption

4) That a “new” GM would not include GMC

5) That GM buying Saab would be good for both (arguably good for GM, certainly terrible for Saab)

6) That Mitsubishi would not survive to 2010 in the United States

7) That Suzuki would not survive to 2010 in the United States

8) That the Chevy Avalanche would NEVER sell. Not have excellent numbers for a niche truck (until the price of gasoline ended the party) as in NEVER sell – that it would be a crushing failure like the SSR. Almost a million-Avalanches sold over a decade later, and in really bitter irony me being one of the early adopter buyers…

9) That the relaunched retro Ford Thunderbird would be a sales success

10) That Mazda would not be fighting for its North American sales life (they’ve got good products, why wouldn’t you buy one???)

11) That BMW and Mercedes would mop the floor with these new cars from Japan called Lexus and Infiniti

12) That Audi would never rebuild itself after the gas pedal debacle of the 80s

13) That America would rediscover and fall back in love with the hatchback as soon as gasoline got too expensive and even CUV economy didn’t make sense anymore

I thought that the Bangle BMWs and their current-gen successors would be seen by the BMW-leasing public as “shark-jumpers” in that they are becoming less and less “ultimate driving machines” and more and more bloated “ultimate being-seen-in commutermobiles.” To my chagrin, BMW seemingly enjoys record-setting leases (I won’t say “sells”) every year. In the end, I was wrong, so, so wrong, about my fellow Americans; they really are badge-snob sheep.

BMW just changed horses. The driving enthusiasts are almost gone and the people who would have driven personal luxury cars, or Coupe De Villes, or whatever other ‘look at me’ act of philistine tackiness was in vogue are keeping the cash registers ringing.

Based purely on looks, I really thought the Challenger was going to give the Mustang a run for its money. It was exactly what I thought the very disappointing Charger was supposed to look like. I was wrong, but I’m not entirely sure why? Was it the price? The performance? Marketing? Maybe the Mustang nameplate is just too iconic to overcome.

I thought that electrical power would knock gasoline of it’s perch by now, in all it’s forms: Prius/Volt/Leaf/Tesla. That of course was dependent on a big breakthrough in battery tech which hasn’t happened yet. Maybe someday.

Cadillac 8-6-4 was a good idea. It was, just poorly executed.
Ford would downsize the Ranger. Bring back the mini truck.
Subaru Baja, I loved the Brat. Apparently I was alone.
Miata was a 3-5 year fad.

I predicted that the Dodge brand would go away. With RAM being it’s own brand now, and Chrysler making cars and JEEP handling SUV’s, who the heck needs a Dodge? Dodge is the Mercury and Oldsmobile/Pontiac. Dodge Dart. Really? The cool kids are going to buy a DODGE DART instead of a Ford Focus? Dart should have been a Chrysler and shut down the Dodge brand.