Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx of new-construction listings. It is the longer-term trend that is most meaningful – however we can say with confidence that there was clearly no significant “crash” in prices this past autumn.

One indication of the heat of the market is the extent to which sales prices are bid up over asking prices. As is not untypical, the market becomes less competitive in November as it heads into the winter holidays. Still, an average sales price 6% over asking price would be considered crazy-hot in any other market in the country (though one also has to adjust for the fact that serious underpricing has become a not uncommon listing strategy in the SF market).

This chart based on S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index data illustrates the seasonality of home price appreciation in the past 4 years: surging in our feverish spring selling seasons, and then generally plateauing through the rest of the year. Note that Case-Shiller looks at home prices in a totally different way than median sales price trends, and probably reflects changes in fair market value more accurately. Case-Shiller Index numbers refer back to a January 2000 value of 100, thus the current Index reading for higher-priced Bay Area homes of 217 signifies home prices 117% above January 2000.

As we enter the winter holiday market slowdown, the next real indication of the direction of the market will come in the first quarter of 2016. Will spring 2016 repeat the overheated, high demand/ low supply frenzies of previous springs or has the market finally reached a longer term plateau or even an affordability inflection point? We shall soon know more.

In 2015 YTD, the dominant price segment for home sales in San Francisco was $1,000,000 to $1,499,000. As seen in the first chart above, the median sales prices for both condos and houses fall within this range. Note the change from just two years ago.

————————————————————

San Francisco Luxury Home Market

The high-end home market is the most seasonal segment in the city (as well as the most sensitive to sudden, large, negative movements in the financial markets). Market activity starts to plunge in November, hits its nadir in December, begins to pick up in the first quarter and then usually hits its peak in spring. Much of the center of gravity in the luxury market has been shifting in recent years from the city’s prestige northern neighborhoods to other districts of the city, such as the greater Noe Valley area and the South Beach/Yerba Buena district. This is not to say that the northern districts are not still both very expensive and considered highly desirable, and the greater Pacific Heights area still dominates the market for the most expensive houses in the city, i.e. those selling for $5m and more.

————————————————————

After the semi-hysteria – already half forgotten – that erupted in late August and September regarding the Chinese stock market and its impact on the U.S. stock market and economy, and possibly the Bay Area housing market, we thought it interesting to take a look back at how it has played out so far.

————————————————————

It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, probably by some minimal increment, but for the time being, as of the first week of December, rates have remained below 4%.

————————————————————

In November, we issued two mini-reports, one on Bay Area housing affordability and another on San Francisco new housing construction. Below are the featured charts:

I’ll continue to keep an eye on things for you, if you continue to read it.

Expect much lighter than usual blogging for the rest of the year, and don’t be surprised if theFrontSteps goes under construction.

Contact me today for a free property valuation, or to get you set up on my buyer system.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! I know I did. Back to the grind…

With the grind comes daily ganders at all things San Francisco real estate, and today is no exception. Check out this this Nob Hill Co-op apartment at 1333 Jones topping our weekly list of underbids (because they do exist).

Listed just under $1.5M and sold for $1.3M… that’s gotta put a smile on your face. The $200,000 savings can put an Audi R8 in your garage (it is holiday season after all), or your kids through San Francisco pre-school (go with the R8). :-)

Hey look! Two other full service bachelor pads also sold under asking recently: one at the Four Seasons and the other at the Ritz Carlton. Underbid by about 8% after being on market for 339 and 227 days respectively. Wowza…

In case you don’t get sfnewsletter (I posted this there), here is our November 2015 San Francisco Real Estate Market Report, including 11 Custom Charts:
————————————————————

San Francisco led the Bay Area and the nation when its real estate recovery began in early 2012. Within the city itself, the more affluent neighborhoods led the rebound from the 2008 – 2011 recession and saw the highest rates of home price appreciation. That dynamic began to shift in 2014, when the more affordable neighborhoods began to take the lead in demand and in appreciation. All price segments in San Francisco have cooled off from the overheated frenzy of the spring 2015 selling season – this cooling is a common seasonal phenomenon – but while lower and mid-priced homes in the city have continued to remain solidly in “seller’s market” territory, in the luxury home segment, the dynamic between buyers and sellers has fundamentally shifted, at least for the time being.

A number of reasons may explain this: Firstly, the affluent are much more invested in the stock market than other groups, and the volatility of late August, early September may have encouraged more wealthy homeowners to sell (before things might possibly get worse), and more wealthy homebuyers to postpone buying until things clarified. As of very early November, the S&P 500 has regained its lost ground from August, so this effect may fade. Secondly, it’s certainly possible that sellers and listing agents have finally pushed the envelope on prices a little too far: San Francisco’s high prices have clearly motivated some buyers to look at options outside the city (which has helped pressurize the markets of other counties). Last but not least, more and more luxury condos are being built in San Francisco: Growing supply not only gives buyers more options and more negotiating room, but it decreases the urgency to write strong offers quickly or the motivation to compete with other buyers.

However, the luxury home market hasn’t “crashed”: there are still high-end homes selling very quickly for very high prices amid competitive bidding. But it has markedly cooled and the number of luxury home listings in San Francisco hit a new high in October, so correct pricing has becomes increasingly vital. It remains to see if this change is just a transitory market blip – such blips are not uncommon in financial or real estate markets – or the beginning of a longer term reality.

————————————————————

Median Sales Price by Month

Even with the general cooling in the market since spring and the significant slowdown in higher end home sales, the overall median sales price for houses and condos bounced back up to $1,200,000 in October. Median prices are impacted by seasonal trends: typically peaking in the spring, dropping in the summer, up again in the autumn and then plunging during the winter holidays. This has more to do with inventory than with changes in fair market value. Short-term fluctuations are not particularly meaningful: It is the longer-term trend that gives a sense of what’s going on in the market.

For houses alone, the median sales price in October was $1,300,000 and for condos, it was $1,100,000.

————————————————————

Supply & Demand Statistics
by Price Segment, October 2015

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) is a classic measurement of supply and demand, calculating the time it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at the current rate of market activity. The lower the MSI, the greater the demand as compared to the supply, i.e. the hotter the market. The house market in San Francisco has been stronger than the condo market since the recovery began – though the condo market has been crazy hot as well – because the supply of houses is more limited and is dwindling as a percentage of sales because virtually no new houses are being added to inventory. However, new condos are being built in quantity. This chart above illustrates the dramatic difference in the markets for homes up to the median price ($1.3 million for houses, $1.1 million for condos) and in the next price segment higher, versus the luxury home segment, defined here as houses selling for $2,000,000+ and condos for $1,500,000+. (By this definition, luxury sales currently make up about 20% of San Francisco’s home sales.)

Because SF has been so hot for so long, we’ve adjusted the thresholds for what MSI readings define “seller’s market” and “buyer’s market” to better reflect the psychology of the current market.

Luxury Home Listings for Sale

As mentioned earlier, the number of high-end house and condo listings hit all-time highs in October, while sales numbers are well below levels hit in the previous 2 years. Even more so than the general market, the luxury segment is dramatically affected by seasonality and typically goes into deep hibernation from Thanksgiving to mid-January. Having so many active listings on the market just prior to the winter holiday doldrums is one of the reasons why we designate the luxury-home segment as currently having moved into “buyer’s market” territory.

The Luxury Home Market: Months Supply of Inventory
Year over Year over Year Comparisons

This chart above illustrates the change in the luxury home market supply and demand balance over the past three Octobers. As a further point of context to what has happened in the past year, during the feverish market of this past spring, the MSI for luxury houses hit a low of 1.6 months of inventory and the MSI for luxury condos hit a low of 1.7 months. Since 2012, spring has consistently been the hottest, most competitive, selling season of the year and most home price appreciation has occurred during that time.

————————————————————

4 Neighborhood Snapshots

Much more information regarding SF neighborhood prices and trends can be found here: San Francisco Neighborhood Values

————————————————————

Average Asking Rents in San Francisco

The real estate market has been challenging for homebuyers these past few years, but for anyone looking to rent a home in the city, it has been distinctly more difficult financially. Homebuyers have the benefit of historically low interest rates, multiple tax advantages and, hopefully, substantial appreciation gains over time; renters enjoy none of those advantages (though admittedly there can be long-term benefits to rent control for renters that qualify). Even with the big jump in home prices over the past 4 years, factoring in the 35% – 40% decline in interest rates and adjusting for inflation, the ongoing monthly cost of homeownership (for someone putting 20% down) is roughly the same as it was in 2007. But average monthly asking rents in the city have surged over 50% during the same period.

This has made rental property ownership an increasingly lucrative proposition, which we discuss in more detail in our last Commercial Brokerage report: Bay Area Apartment Building Market

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released on Tuesday. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly meaningful until substantiated by a longer-term trend.

Since Case-Shiller’s SF Metro Area covers 5 counties, it should be noted that not all the markets within the Area move in lockstep: activity and appreciation rates can vary significantly.

As is clearly illustrated below, for the past 4 years, spring has been the big driver of home-price appreciation. Prices generally plateau in subsequent seasons until the next spring arrives. For the past couple years, the spring selling season has started very early, in late January or early February, due to the incredible weather we’ve had in those months. El Niňo, if it arrives, might move the spring pick-up in sales back to mid-March/early April in 2016.

This second chart illustrates the huge burst in prices this past spring. It’s not unusual for the market to slump a little during the summer holidays, almost in exhaustion after the spring frenzy. We’ll have more autumn statistics soon when October’s MLS data comes in, but Paragon has been experiencing its most active autumn selling season in its history in 2015.

And here are 3 longer-term charts for each of the 3 Case-Shiller price tiers for the 5-county San Francisco metro statistical area. As can be seen, the different price tiers had bubbles and crashes of radically different magnitudes in 2006 – 2009, but as far as total appreciation since the year 2000, all of them display very similar appreciation rates.

That ought to do it for your data craving for a while. You might consider following this blog via email (link below) or get on the Twitter train @theFrontSteps, so you don’t miss a beat of San Francisco Real Estate.

This exquisitely remodeled luxury Nob Hill condominium with views West/Southwest to Twin Peaks & outlooks onto Jones Street, located in the heart-center of San Francisco’s premiere postcard neighborhood is for sale, and you get the first look.

1177 California, Gramercy Towers

1177 California, Gramercy Towers

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Living Room

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Living Area

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Dining Area and Views S/SW

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Built in Office Nook

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Views

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Living Area

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Living Area

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Remodeled Kitchen

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Remodeled Kitchen

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Bar Seating Open to Living Area

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Bedroom

1177 California #304, Gramercy Towers Remodeled bathroom

1177 California, Gramercy Towers Pool

1177 California, Gramercy Towers Fitness Center

Grace Cathedral literally out the front door

Grace Cathedral, Nob Hill

Pacific Union Club, Nob Hill

The Mark Hopkins Hotel, Nob Hill

The Fairmont Hotel, Nob Hill

Featuring one bedroom, one bath, one car parking, 24/7 attended lobby, pool, spa, workout area, onsite management, a gracious lobby & courtyard entry, with world famous landmarks at your doorstep (Grace Cathedral, Huntington Park, Fairmont, Mark Hopkins & Huntington Hotels, cable cars), and a short walk to Union Square, Hyde & Polk Streets, this is the A+ Nob Hill lifestyle so many crave. Blending old world San Francisco charm with a new school WALKSCORE of 100 points, Liebherr refrigerator, Miele Dishwasher, and Fagor Range/Oven, does it get any better?!

To add to the wonderful appeal of this home and location, Gramercy Towers is expertly managed.

I’m pleased to announce the successful off market purchase of an awesome unit at Gramercy Towers in San Francisco’s one and only Nob Hill district. My clients got word of this new listing, called me up, and we snagged it before it had a chance to go to MLS. They are thrilled, seller is happy, all is good.

Two bedrooms, two baths, remodeled, views, and great layout. Sales price $1,650,000.

I would imagine there are a couple hundred thousand people every day driving to and from San Francisco on the Bay Bridge that think, “I wonder what the view is like from up there.” Well…I was just up on the 50th floor of Tower One at One Rincon Hill (425 1st St), snapped this panorama, and thought I’d share.

For a little bit more information about this building, have a look at the posts I did ages ago before the tower even had walls…and of course there are units for sale, which I can assist you with too.

[Update: I can get you in to the sales center, guaranteed, just contact me using the form below.]

Designed by world-renowned Bernardo Fort-Brescia of Arquitectonica, in collaboration with Heller Manus, LUMINA is a 656-unit condominium development, soaring above the San Francisco Bay, striving for LEED Silver Certification. It is located at 201 Folsom Street on the south side between Main and Beale Streets, two blocks from the Embarcadero waterfront. Currently under construction, the project will consist of two towers of 42 and 37 stories, and two mid-rise plaza buildings of eight stories each (perhaps you’ve seen a couple cranes and a few construction workers down that way?)

Each new home will include first-class features and finishes, and common area amenities will do nothing short of blowing your socks off. Floor plans, which are now up on their site, include studio, one bedroom, one bedroom plus den, two bedroom, to three-bedroom layouts, averaging 1,200 square feet. [Note: that is average…studios start around 1200 square feet.] Of course there will be penthouses too, but they’re holding those cards close to their chest (get on my radar screen if you want to be notified of penthouse units). Many units will offer breathtaking views of San Francisco Bay and the city, and floor-to-ceiling glass windows.

Pricing (Phase 1):
-Studios: approximately 650 square feet, from $695,000 to $825,000
-1BR: approximately 850 to 870 square feet (Tower) and approximately 880 to 1100 square feet (Plaza), from $865,000 to $1,150,000,
-1BR + Den: from $865,000 to $1,160,000
-2BR: approximately 1170 to 1570 square feet (Tower) and approximately 1400 to 1500 square feet (Plaza), from $1,225,000 to $2,295,000
-3BR: approximately 1790 to 2670 square feet (both Tower & Plaza buildings), from $2,350,000 to $5,350,000

Currently no offers are being accepted, but will be considered starting Monday 9/29/14 by noon thru Friday 10/3/14. There are currently ONLY 52 units on offer in ONLY two of the buildings (as stated). After this release, they expect a much larger release of units in the second phase, and pricing will not be the same.

Units available in this release are in the Plaza A (mid rise building) on the 4th Floor, and Tower D (shorter of two towers) on floors 7,12,18,23,30…that’s it. Occupancy projected for late 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Microwave ovens do not come standard, nor do Hardwood Floors. Those are upgrades. Floors will set you back about $10-20,000.

Parking is included with EVERY unit. That said, you are not allowed to park your car, you must use valet (oh the horrors!). If you decide you don’t want parking, you can ask for $10,000 knocked off your sales price, or perhaps roll it into HW floors?

Before I get into the amenities, here are a few more things I’ve learned from my research:
-Homeowners Association (HOA) fees will be in the ballpark of $1000/mo, and calculated based on the size of your unit. Smaller unit = lower HOAs. Larger Unit = Higher HOAs.
-The first phase of sales will be limited to around 75 units, and only in two of the four buildings, the mid-rise (Plaza), and shorter high-rise.
-Sorry, no Penthouses will be released yet.
-Closing for this phase are currently scheduled for 2015 and 2016
-A second release of homes is planned for November.
-Prices will most likely increase for each release.
-Parking is gonna set you back about $10,000, but apparently that $10k will be credited back to you and your purchase price (still fuzzy on this).
–It’s hard as hell to get an appointment to the sales center, but my clients are guaranteed to get in, so register with me below, and we’ll make it happen. [You must be prepared to show pre-approval/proof of funds prior to meeting, and must not be represented by an agent.]

So what about those amenities, which literally consume about an acre of land?

ROOFTOP TERRACE
An expansive ±10,500-square-foot rooftop oasis with outdoor dining areas, barbecues, fire pits, vegetable gardens, and an outdoor movie lawn where you can sit back and enjoy the latest films or timeless classics projected on an expansive wall under the stars.

CLUB LOUNGE
An impressive club lounge features a marble-wrapped fireplace and backlit bar, and is furnished with rich wood paneling and stone flooring.

PRIVATE DINING ROOM
For an intimate or grand-scale gathering, the elevated Private Dining Room affords the most refined living and dining space for entertaining your guests. The Private Dining Room opens to a breezy outdoor terrace, features a chef-quality show kitchen for cooking demonstrations, fully equipped back-of-house prep kitchen, and stone-clad fireplace.

SCREENING ROOM
For a relaxed film viewing, the beautifully designed private screening room with sophisticated wall paneling and dimmed sconces features comfortable, upholstered tiered theatre seating for 30, a large projection screen, and surround sound.

LIBRARY LOUNGE
For intimate social gatherings or a peaceful escape, the welcoming private lounge is conveniently outfitted with Wi-Fi access, and still welcomes hard and paper back books.

CHILDREN’S ROOM (Don’t worry, you won’t be alone.)
Ideal for children’s birthday parties or just playful afternoons, the colorful and engaging space, complete with a chalkboard and an interactive wall, is thoughtfully designed for hours of enriching entertainment.

PET GROOMING STATION
To conveniently care for your pets, the grooming station features a full wash basin and raised platform for easy accessibility.

FITNESS CENTER (Get your sweat on.)
The massive ±7,000-square-foot fitness center designed by renowned gym designer, Jay Wright, is fully equipped with both yoga and high impact aerobic studios, the only residential 20-foot rock climbing wall in San Francisco, and cardio and strength equipment to keep you in shape for the myriad of outdoor activities the Bay Area has to offer.

POOL ($100 to the first person to share their selfie canon-ball with us.)
Enjoy a refreshing dip in the 75-foot heated lap pool, beautifully sun-lit by a two-story skylight from above.

SPA
A transcendent experience awaits in the ±2,000-square-foot spa where a private treatment room, day lockers, steam room, dry sauna and men’s and women’s changing rooms are perfectly suited for a fully immersive experience.

MUSIC PRACTICE ROOM (So you don’t have to annoy your neighbors.)
For residents who have a true passion for music, the professional-quality practice room provides the perfect sound isolation and environment to spend hours honing your craft.

That ought to get you started, so take a minute to fill out the form below, or shoot me an email (alexclark@gmail.com), phone call/text (415-254-5351), and don’t miss out on this one of a kind opportunity in this one of a kind city we all love to call home.

Remember: It’s hard as hell to get an appointment to the sales center, but my clients are guaranteed to get in, so register with me below, and we’ll make it happen. [You must be prepared to show pre-approval/proof of funds prior to meeting, and must not be represented by an agent.]

San Francisco median home sales prices have increased dramatically since 2012. Beginning from a low-$600k with an average price per sqft of mid-$500, and then accelerating in the first half of 2013 close to $800k with an average price of mid-$600 per sq ft, to almost $1M mediam home sales price and $800+ per sq ft currently. To say San Francisco and the Bay Area are in the midst of a very dramatic recovery would be considered a very large understatement.

Thankfully, new development is soaring once again, generally in the form of large new condo projects (many of which have already sold out), so if you’re deciding whether to buy a new condo, and paying $1000+ per sq ft for brand new everything, here is a list of the hot new developments that are changing various districts of San Francisco.

The highly anticipated Amero, in Cow Hollow, has 27 Units. Sadly, they’re all sold out before construction completes in Q4 of this year.

amerosf.com
But there are other developments which still have available units:

Vida
In the Mission district, Vida has 114 Units, and opened earlier this year, with about 25% sold. Featuring 1 to 2-bedroom units, up to 1,138 sq ft.vidasf.com

Fifteen FifteenAlso in the Mission, Fifteen Fifteen is a 32-unit building that might have one or two units left. Features studio to 2-bedroom, up to 1,100 sq ft.1515 street

Toward Mission Dolores neighborhood, there is 35 Dolores, a 33-unit building with an estimated opening in Q3:35-dolores

8 Octavia
Located in the vibrant Hayes Valley, 8 Octavia features hi-tech ammenities including Nest for temperature control, building is wired with high speed internet, and remote doorman service. This is one of the few buildings that has multi-floor penthouses with trendy concrete ceilings. 1 to 3-bedroom penthouse, totaling 40 units. Estimated Opening: Q4
Last time I visited they had only a couple units left, so don’t delay.8octavia.com

A few blocks south, we have 1450 Franklin, a 67-unit building with estimated opening in Q4:1450 Franklin

The major developments are all in District 9, which includes Potrero Hill, SOMA, Mission Bay, and Dogpatch.

Onyx
Located in the sunny Potrero Hill, Onyx is just steps from an array of cafes, restaurants, galleries, and nightlife. Opened in Spring this year, it is almost sold out. 1 to 2-bedroom, totaling 20 units.www.onyxsf.com

Arden by BOSA
Built by the developer behind the Madrone and Radiance, Arden is a luxury Condominium by Mission Creek. Some of its perks are the stylish interior design, minutes from the Mission Creek Park, dog park, and downtown. 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,300 sq ft. Total units: 263, and already 100 soldardenbybosa.com

Lumina and Park 181
Built by the developer behind the highly successful and iconic Infinity, Lumina (656 units) is one of the new constructions that will be changing SOMA along with Park 181, which is designed by famed architect Heller Manus, the same architect behind Infinity.
Park 181 (67 units) is an ultra luxurious new development that offers great views, as well as many luxury amenities. They are both located right by the new Transbay Terminal and minutes from the Ferry building. 1 to 3-bedroom. Estimated Opening: Q3-Q4luminasf.com/park181sf.com/

72 Townsend
Adjacent to the historic Condominium conversion at 88 Townsend, 72 Townsend is coming in 2015 and features 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,800 sq ft, totaling 74 units. 1:1 parking ratio.

Millwheel North
In the already up-and-came Dogpatch, Millwheel North is a two-building condominium project connected via a shared landscaped courtyard. Located across from Progress Park, its perks include proximity to Caltrain and everything that Dogpatch has to offer, including the Pier 70 redevelopment that is scheduled to kick off this summer. 1 to 3-bedrooms, up to 1,710 sq ft, totaling 39 Units. Estimated opening in Q3millwheelsf.com

That ought to get you started and help you zero in on some of the new developments popping up around town. But these things sell fast (so fast, that our numbers might already be off), so it’s best to have someone on your side. Give us a shout and we’ll get you dialed. If you, or anybody you know, has interest in any of these units, contact us for pricing, more details, and to get you in the door. (Developers and sales offices hold these details close to their chest.)