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U SEFUL D EFINITIONS : On-Line Learning – Information comes in one step at a time, learner must apply model, make prediction, observe true value, then adjust model accordingly. Weak Learner – Algorithm has higher accuracy than random guessing, but is impractical by itself for most real-world applications. PAC – Probably Approximately Correct; most of the time the prediction returned will be close to the actual result. 3

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E NSEMBLE L EARNING : A machine learning paradigm where multiple learners are used to solve the problem Problem …... Problem Learner Previously: Ensemble: The generalization ability of the ensemble is usually significantly better than that of an individual learner Boosting is one of the most important families of ensemble methods 4

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H OW WAS A DABOOST BORN ? In 1988, M. Kearns and L.G. Valiant posed an interesting question: Can a “weak” learning algorithm that performs just slightly better than random guess can be “boosted” into an arbitrarily accurate “strong” learning algorithm? More simply, can we transform one or more weak learners into a single strong learner? 6

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H OW WAS A DABOOST BORN ? In R. Schapire’s MLJ90 paper, Rob said “yes” and gave a proof to the question. The proof is a construction, which is the first Boosting algorithm (“Recursive Majority Gate Formulation”) Then, in Y. Freund’s Phd thesis (1993), Yoav gave a scheme of combining weak learners by “Majority Vote” Though theoretically strong, both algorithms relied on knowledge of each weak learner’s accuracy Later, at AT&T Bell Labs, they published the 1997 paper (in fact the work was done in 1995), which proposed the AdaBoost algorithm, a practical, “adaptable” algorithm 7

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O N - LINE A LLOCATION OF R ESOURCES : I NTRODUCTION Problem: “... dynamically apportioning resources among a set of options...” In other words, “Given a set of individual predictions, how much should we value each one?” The Gambler Example (A recurring theme) 9

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T HE G AMBLER : A Gambler wants to make money on horse-racing by consulting a group of experts. He discovers that experts tend to use certain “rules of thumb” for races that dictate results to some degree (“Horse with the best odds”, etc.). Hard to find one particular rule that works for multiple circumstances. How can he use the network of various predictions (each of which tends to use a given rule of thumb) to win money? More specifically, how should he split his money among the experts? 10

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O N - LINE A LLOCATION OF R ESOURCES : P ROBLEM F ORMULATION The on-line allocation model: Allocation agent: A - the gambler A certain strategy: i – one expert’s behavior # of options/strategies: {1,2,3,...,N} - the # of experts to choose from # of time steps: {1,2,3,...,T} - the # of races distribution over strategies: p t -how much money he spends on each expert loss: l –money lost (or not gained) 11

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O N - LINE A LLOCATION OF R ESOURCES : H EDGE ( Β ) Basis: “The algorithm and its analysis are direct generalizations of Littlestone and Warmuth’s weighted majority algorithm” Assumptions: The loss suffered by any strategy be bounded All weights be nonnegative Initial weights sum up to 1 (optional) 12

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C HOOSING BETA Set Where L~ is the bound on the best strategy, and Then: And if we know T: 18

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O N - LINE A LLOCATION OF R ESOURCES : E VALUATION The authors show that the Hedge(β) algorithm “yield[s] bounds that are slightly weaker in some cases, [than those produced by the algorithm proposed by Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994] but applicable to a considerably more general class of learning problems.” Not only binary decisions Not only discrete loss 19

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M ORE G AMBLING The gambler now wants to avoid the experts, and opts to write a program that predicts the winner. He must take input data Odds Previous results Track conditions And predict the outcome Win or loss He notices that “rules of thumb” once again emerge, where simple heuristics can provide some predictive accuracy, but not enough How can he use this information to make money? 20

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B OOSTING : I NTRODUCTION Aim: “.. converting a weak learning algorithm that performs just slightly better than random guessing into one with arbitrarily high accuracy.” Example: Constructing an expert computer program Two problems: Choosing data Combining rules “Boosting refers to this general problem of producing a very accurate prediction rule by combining rough and moderately inaccurate rules-of-thumb.” 21

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T RADITIONAL B OOSTING 1. Split a training data set into multiple overlapping subsets. 2. Train a weak learner on one equally weighted example set, until accuracy is > 50%. 3. Train a weak learner on a new example set, now weighted to focus on errors. 4. Repeat until all example sets are exhausted. 5. Apply all learners to test set to determine final hypothesis. 22

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T HE P ROBLEM Previous algorithms by the same authors “work by calling a given weak learning algorithm WeakLearn multiple times, each time presenting it with a different distribution [of examples], and finally combining all the generated hypotheses into a single hypothesis.” Problems Too much has to be known in advance Improvement of the overall performance depends on the weakest rules 23

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A DABOOST : A DAPTIVE B OOSTING Instead of sampling, re-weight Can be used to train weak classifiers Final classification based on weighted vote of weak classifiers 24

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A DA B OOST : If the underlying classifiers are linear networks, then AdaBoost builds multilayer perceptrons one node at a time. However, the underlying classifier can be anything, decision trees, neural networks, etc… 25

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I NITIAL A NALYSIS : The weight of each example is adjusted so that the multiplier will be beta if correct (<1), or 1 if incorrect (beta^0). Remember that the weight will be normalized, so no decrease is effectively an increase. Each learner gets a vote inversely proportional to the logarithm of its beta, which in turn was proportional to its error. 27

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B ETA What implications does this have? 1. If the error is.5, or equivalent to random guessing, no information is gained and the time step isn’t used. 2. For a common error .5, the time step will actually have an inverse vote. 28

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S TILL M ORE G AMBLING The gambler now has a pretty good scheme to make money, and downloads the entire race history from the track’s database 1. He finds that odds are a PAC predictor, and comes up with hypotheses accordingly. 2. He calculates the error of using this predictor. 3. He looks at the data in a different way, focusing on examples that odds could not easily predict, and comes up with a new heuristic (when the track is muddy, the horse with the most experienced jockey wins) 4. He repeats this process until no more viable heuristics can be determined. 5. When enough of the heuristics indicate a win for a given horse, he places a bet. 29

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T HEORETICAL P ROPERTIES : Y. Freund and R. Schapire [JCSS97] have proved that the training error of AdaBoost is bounded by: where Thus, if each base classifier is slightly better than random so that for some, then the training error drops exponentially fast in T since the above bound is at most 30

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T HEORETICAL P ROPERTIES C ON ’ T Y. Freund and R. Schapire [JCSS97] have tried to bound the generalization error as: where denotes empirical probability on training sample, s is the sample size, d is the VC-dim of base learner The above bounds suggest that Boosting will overfit if T is large. However, empirical studies show that Boosting often does not overfit R. Schapire et al. [AnnStat98] gave a margin-based bound: for any  > 0 with high probability where 31

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T OY E XAMPLE – TAKEN FROM A NTONIO T ORRALBA @MIT Weak learners from the family of lines h => p(error) = 0.5 it is at chance Each data point has a class label: w t =1 and a weight: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = 32

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T OY EXAMPLE This one seems to be the best Each data point has a class label: w t =1 and a weight: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = This is a ‘ weak classifier ’: It performs slightly better than chance. 33

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T OY EXAMPLE We set a new problem for which the previous weak classifier performs better than chance again Each data point has a class label: w t w t exp{-y t H t } We update the weights: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = 34

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T OY EXAMPLE We set a new problem for which the previous weak classifier performs better than chance again Each data point has a class label: w t w t exp{-y t H t } We update the weights: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = 35

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T OY EXAMPLE We set a new problem for which the previous weak classifier performs at chance again Each data point has a class label: w t w t exp{-y t H t } We update the weights: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = 36

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T OY EXAMPLE We set a new problem for which the previous weak classifier performs better than chance again Each data point has a class label: w t w t exp{-y t H t } We update the weights: +1 ( ) -1 ( ) y t = 37

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T OY EXAMPLE The strong (non- linear) classifier is built as the combination of all the weak (linear) classifiers. f1f1 f2f2 f3f3 f4f4 38

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A DA B OOST.M1 We modify error calculation as follows: With the caveat: And come up with a final hypothesis by: 48

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C ONCLUDING R EMARKS This paper was the introduction of AdaBoost, an award-winning, widely used algorithm featured in the top 10 algorithms. The paper also included the Hedge algorithm, a much less widely known algorithm. It should be noted that Hedge was a solution to a problem that prevented adaptable boosting for a long time, and has therefore had a significant impact on data mining since. 49

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E XAM Q UESTIONS : 1. What are we seeking to minimize in resource allocation? 2. What is the goal of boosting? 3. What makes Adaboost adaptable? 50

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E XAM Q UESTION I: W HAT ARE WE SEEKING TO MINIMIZE IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION ? More simply, we seek to minimize the total loss of the allocator with respect to the loss of the best learner. This gives us a consistent “worst case scenario”, effectively hedging our bets. 51

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E XAM Q UESTION II: W HAT IS THE GOAL OF BOOSTING ? The goal is to use one or more weak learners as an arbitrarily accurate strong learner In other words, to use better-than-chance heuristics in ensemble for high predictive accuracy 52

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E XAM Q UESTION III: W HAT MAKES A DA B OOST ADAPTABLE ? The classifiers used in the final decision function have all been modified to account for the weaknesses in the preceding classifiers. As long as we at least one initial learner that tells us something about the data, the algorithm will infer everything else it needs to. 53