Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Preview to early October weather... what's headed our way?

Summertime heat refuses to back down this week as we continue with temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal. It's not that unusual to have lower 90s, but mid and upper 90s will threaten records. That's where we will be today, so let's watch and see if we beat any of the current records.

What to expect for the end of September/beginning of October:

I love looking at the long range patterns and trying to give you as much advanced notice of changes and big storms that might impact Kansas weather. We aren't always going to be right, but some of the data that goes out 15-20 days has been fairly accurate as of late. I enjoy looking beyond the 7 day forecast to what is coming next.

Pattern - Sep 28

The end of September looks mild for Kansas (highs around 80) and the chances for stormy weather should continue. Where you see the dark shades of blue in the western US, that is a developing storm system that could impact our weather here with chances for rain right around the end of the month.

Pattern - Oct. 2

When the jet stream winds (up about 30,000 feet) come out of the southwest, there's an increased chance we will have some rain chances around the area. That particular setup will hold through the first 5-7 days of October, with temperatures running near or above normal. So I would expect to see several days where highs may be close to 80. The cool, almost chilly fall weather is definitely gathering across the northern tier of the US. There will be occasional periods in October where that will be moving south, so even though the beginning of October doesn't look that cool, there are signs that the middle of the month could be quite cool for Kansas. Stay tuned.