Gartner says software bubbles are the future

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gartner just released its latest 5-year predictions for how i.t. will change in the coming years. this report covers 2007-2012 and predicts some major shifts in how people work with i.t. and how the infrastructure of a business will have to adapt.

the changes are based around some major shifts in the technology and software sectors. the first big change will be a move to windows vista and the increasing use of intel's core processors, which i.t. departments will have to deal with over the coming two years.

intel is also going to introduce the santa rosa fourth-gen centrino platform, which will improve battery life in laptops coupled with any advances in battery technology. this, along with gartner's prediction that workers will start to use their own hardware for work more, means there will be a shift to virtualization. this is required so that businesses can retain the security they need regardless of the hardware being used by its employees. this is the main focus of the 2009-2010 period.

after this, and up to 2012, gartner expects to see the phasing out of windows xp and even more focus on what it calls “software bubbles” where employees use a range of hardware both at work and home to do their jobs. businesses will have to cope with this, allowing users to take their settings and preferences between different hardware and coping with the security implications this throws up.

matthew's opinion
i think the biggest headache is going to be the shift to windows vista. coping with the installations, security setups, time consuming training of users, and inevitable costs is always a nightmare for a company, especially those at the enterprise level.

after vista has settled down, the move to software bubbles should be a simpler task. even now, we are getting the functionality start to appear; support for settings on flash drives transferring between machines is becoming a feature we all expect. the new centrino in laptops should also help people get more done, but we need new battery technology to free us from the desktop pc during the working day.

the concept of software bubbles is good, since it conjures up images of working from home. the downside is going to be that more and more people are always going to be connected to work, and that is going to bring up issues of individuals not getting time away from that environment.

the one thing not mentioned by gartner is the infrastructure around these shifts. if it expects people to be connected more away from the office, then it is going to put an increasing strain on the information backbone connecting all the machines. broadband service providers are also going to have to invest heavily over the coming years in order to maintain a quality service.

user comments 11 comment(s)

that is why(9:29am est tue oct 10 2006)“and that is going to bring up issues of individuals not getting time away from that environment.”

that is why i resist every push for me to get access to work from home with vpn. it would be easy to set up, easy to use, just pop in there at night or on the weekend and do a few things (that will turn in to hours of work).

i need to have that time at home with my family away from work and its responsibilities. i already put in plenty of time during the work-week. kind of reminds me of people going on 'vacation' and bringing a lap-top and phone to stay connected to work. forget it.

not many people lay on their death bed when they get old and say “if only i had worked more…” – by cynic

work from home(10:45am est tue oct 10 2006)an alternate viewpoint to connecting to work from home –

i support our computer environment, which means i am often on call to handle problems if they should pop up. sometimes, that happens in the middle of the night! being able to “pop in there” instead of dragging myself into the office means i get to spend more time with the family, sleep or whatever instead of driving back and forth to the office.

we also have a lot of remote users that already work out of their homes (salesmen, inspectors, etc.) for them to not have to come into an office 2-3 times a week means they are also spending more time working and less time travelling.

i don't think the shift to vista will be all that hard as people ae making out. many shops have already been though migrations like this before (win31-win95, win95-nt/2000/) and know pretty much what to do. – by jrink

we have different jobs(10:57am est tue oct 10 2006)obviously, sometimes i just need to not be thinking about work. on my drive to work, i start off in the morning thinking about unwork related stuff and i find that the closer i get, the more i think about what i am going to do today. just the opposite in the evenings. i need that compartmentalization, and my commute seems to provide a nice transition point for me.

i like to be home (and not sleeping) for some good time while i am my own person and not just the company's engineer.

access to work from home would just pollute that part of my life.

strangely enough, i just hate to be bugged during the day at work by home stuff. perhaps, i am schizo. – by cynic

windows 2000 was very stable, which is why a lot of companies delayed switching to xp until the last minute (many of them only recently!), mainly because microsoft basically forced them by not supporting 2000. fortunately xp was pretty compatible with 2000, so the switchover was relatively mild.

xp is even more stable than 2000 and companies are very satisfied with it.

i get the feeling that vista is not such a mild switchover. we already know that it requires more hardware resources than xp. how compatible is the software? will all my software run on vista? also, at least at first, it is probably less stable than xp.

i predict a backlash. i think microsoft is in trouble here. – by grapevine

wrong!(11:42am est tue oct 10 2006)i predict that playstation 4 will be used to do all kinds of work.you will have one as a workstation at you job.you will have one as you destktop at your home.you will have one as a gamestation at your room! – by andy

more predictions(11:48am est tue oct 10 2006)gartner also predicts increased use of cell phones in the next 5 years.

furthermore, they feel that wireless technologies will continue to make inroads into consumer and business products.

in summary, gartner takes the position that more computers and electronic equipment will be used in 5 years than are being used today.

– by nostradamus

re: nostradamus(12:29pm est tue oct 10 2006)i hear that it ppl will get paid less than a unionized sanitation engineers…aka garbage picker.

why don't it get a union to protect their wage? business don't like it…but people should.

more brain less pay…not a good trend. anyways, most it jobs can be done by a kid….i said most!!! – by not all

work from home(1:40pm est tue oct 10 2006)unfortunately, i think those predictions may be right. more businesses are discouraging the “hourly employee” mentality of out of sight, out of mind. which is too bad, because it's just this clear separation that has allowed me to stay sane.

it starts when your boss gets your cell phone number. then your personal email account. then a vpn tunnel to work. soon enough, as cynic implied, your home environment bleeds into your work environment, such that you never feel too far away from work.

we may very well have to resist this technology turning us into drones who know only work! – by moodysteve

really now(2:04pm est tue oct 10 2006)“anyways, most it jobs can be done by a kid….”

what he means is, any it job can be done by an indian for half of your pay.

what they need to start doing is, outsource the rich white ceo's job to an indian too, that way they can save billions instead of millions. after all a kid can do both of those jobs! the ceo's job being even easier!

this goes to show you how stupid corporate america is, nationalization at it's best! :) – by rice-n-curry.. barf!

shareholders dry up(investors not happy with their returns. oh boo hoo) employement which is bad.

executives wanting more money so downsizing begins which is bad.

and lastly lawyers need to earn a living so sue sue sue corporations or anyone which is bad.

there has to be a balance in capatalism. – by bla

working from home(7:05pm est wed oct 11 2006)well maybe if you try working from home via vpn or whatever on nights and weekends, you may be building an argument that you can work from home full time. and if you are successful in convincing you boss to let you work from home (make sure you offer to go to the office when they really need you there), then you will be able to let all sorts of things from your home life intrude into your 9-5 working hours. i've worked from home for the same company for 5 years after working in their office for two years. initially, i would go to the office once a week, then once every two weeks, then once a month. i haven't been to the office for 16 months now. and sure, i work after hours and weekends sometimes, but i certainly take care of a lot of personal business during the 9-5 hours. plus, i can potentially see my wife and two small kids any time of day.