U.S. 2010-11 total rice supply forecast decreased

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — There were several supply side revisions this month to the U.S. 2010-11 balance sheet, according to the most recent Rice Outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service, USA Rice Federation said on Aug. 16.

First, the crop forecast decreased 4.1 million cwt to 245.9 million cwt, still 12% larger than a year earlier and the highest on record. The reduction was based on a lower yield. The first USDA survey-based yield forecast for 2010-11 indicates an average field yield of 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118 pounds from last month's forecast and 46 pounds below a year earlier. Harvested area remains estimated at 3.5 million acres, up nearly 13% from last year and the highest since 1999-2000.

Carryin decreased 4.5 million cwt to 33.9 million cwt due to revisions to the 2009-10 supply and use balance sheet. Estimates for both the long-grain and medium-/short-grain carryin were revised downward. Total imports for 2010-11 are forecast at 20 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month's forecast. These revisions lowered the total U.S. rice supply forecast 3% to 299.8 million cwt, still 11% larger than a year earlier and the highest on record.

Total use of U.S. rice in 2010-11 is projected at a record 243 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's forecast and 3% above a year earlier. Total exports of U.S.-grown rice in 2010-11 are projected at 114 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's forecast and almost 5% above last year.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice remains projected at a record 129 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 16% reduction in the 2010-11 ending stocks forecast to 56.8 million cwt, still the highest since 1985-86. There were no revisions to the 2010-11 season average price forecasts this month.

Global production in 2010-11 remains forecast at a record 459.2 million tons (milled basis). Increased projections for Costa Rica, Turkey, and Australia were offset by reductions for the U.S. and Guyana. Global disappearance increased by 4.5 million tonnes to 456.6 million tones, with India and Bangladesh accounting for most of the upward revision. Global ending stocks were increased almost 1% to 97.5 million tonnes, up 2.6 million tonnes from the previous year and the largest since 2002-03.

Global trade for 2011 is virtually unchanged from last month's forecast of 31.3 million tonnes. The 2010 trade forecast increased 1% to 30.1 million tonnes, mostly due to larger imports by Bangladesh and Turkey. While Thailand's trading prices are almost unchanged from last month, Vietnam's increased 11% due to strong sales. Prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice continue to decline in the face of a record harvest.