20150918

These days, I usually have Trump for breakfast, courtesy CNN. Seoul time is perfect to enjoy primary debates (that, at times, look and sound like debates between primates), and the daily dose of Trump delivered by this network to build up more audience than Fox News for its own GOP debate.Fun to see Anderson Cooper and Co. pull out two negative stories against Teflon Don the very day following said debate.To be fair, both issues had to be raised: one on a event supposed to be for Veterans, the other on an anti-Muslim question raised at a Town Hall meeting.Anyway, here's my scorecard for yesterday's debate - +s and -s are not an appreciation of each candidate, but my perception of their net gain/loss compared to before the debate:

+++ Carly Fiorina confirms her lock on the Veep position, and she can aim higher. But for that, she needs to show her 'human' side... if any.

++ Jeb Bush did more than show up. He scored high on family values
(wife, dad, bro), and stole some weed from W's wisecracking stash. If his body
language remains that of a reluctant and insecure leader, he gained precious
points where in the previous debate, he was more into not losing any.

+ Marco Rubio moved to the next level, back into challenger territory. His stupid joke on California drought might cost him an important State for the primaries.

+ Chris Christie remains the dude you want to listen to. He perfectly seized each opportunity to shift the debate to audience-connecting grounds, like in his inaugural address, or with his remarks on the 'entertaining' bragging bout between Carly and Don. He cleverly displayed his Conservative credentials, and positioned himself as the good cop who knows when to get tough. He'd make a very strong nominee against any Dem candidate, but stands little chance for the moment in a GOP primary.

= Ben Carson was a bit more at ease than in the first debate, where he didn't impress me much, but scored big. He didn't show anything new, but risks less of losing ground than Trump in that regard. Still, he left Bush take seat number two.

= Scott Walker had his moments, but can't help looking like a lightweight. This GOP wants a different presence on stage.

= Ted Cruz carved himself into a cold, stubborn monolith that only like-minded people can stick to.

- John Kasich stuck to his unmovable script, a rambling old timer stuck in the past.

- Rand Paul did receive an initial boost from DT, who honored him by noticing his presence. But he continued on his negative trend, even if he fared much better than last time, using the Constitution as a cane to prevent further collapse.

- Donald Trump donaldtrumped for three hours, but in front of Reagan's Air Force One, Air Farce One played too often defense, exposing moments of inertia that may cost him more than his outrageous remarks. This man badly needs something new to last. He's still the biggest presence, but boy, did he look like an old, tired lion about to lose his alpha male status... He even failed to compare himself to Ron born-again Republican Reagan.

-- Mike Huckabee is already out of the race, a commentator speaking of the nominee as a distant third person.

20150909

HRC is obviously trying to roll the clock back to early 2008, when she found her voice by shedding a tear. But this time again, it seems too late in the game, and not that sincere.As announced (see "ABH Corpus"), Bernie Sanders is enjoying the time of his life at the helm of the Anyone But Hillary movement, all other Dem candidates failing miserably in the polls. The question is not which bubble will burst first between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, but if someone will show up to save the RNC.Joe Biden is the most likely - and likable, that's important too - candidate, and Monmouth University polls clearly show a Joementum (see below), but does he want to race, and can his scores remain that stellar if he officially kills Clinton?

For the moment, Hillary doesn't seem able to reload her campaign, to bring freshness to it. That's what Veep Picks are for, but her main hurdle is the primaries, and the early ones at that. Hell, she can't even afford waiting for IA and NH; she must pull out something by the end of this year, or else...If the core Dem dilemma is about character, what to say of the GOP side? Ahead of the second debate, 3 non-politicians steal the show (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina), but the not likable enough Jeb Bush stays in the race, and Mike Huckabee has thrown a Hail Mary Pass on the Kim Davis case (if the Kentucky clerk ever gets sanctified, that will be for surviving a quartering act between the Fox News host from Hope, AR and Ted Cruz).