Tim Farrell/The Star-LedgerView of the tarmac and runways at Terminal C at Newark Airport on Jan. 7.

NEWARK — For years, Newark Liberty International Airport has routinely ranked at or near the bottom in on-time performance among the nation’s busiest airports — in large part because it, along with John F. Kennedy International and LaGuardia airports, serve the busiest travel market in the world.

The situation will likely deteriorate, according to a study released today, as demand for travel grows by nearly 50 percent over the next two decades, threatening to make delays even worse if nothing is done.

So the study’s authors at the Manhattan-based Regional Plan Association are recommending $15 billion in overhauls at the three major airports, including construction of a third, longer runway at Newark to allow for more takeoffs and landings and, ultimately, to significantly reduce delays.

To make way for the new runway, however, all of Terminal B and portions of Terminals A and C would have to be demolished and rebuilt in some other configuration, according to the study commissioned by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the three airports.

In addition to Newark, the report recommends a fifth runway be added at JFK. LaGuardia, which like Newark is plagued by poor on-time performance, has no room to expand, the report says.

Failing to overhaul the airports will stunt the region’s growth, resulting in the loss of business and job opportunities and forcing traveling public to seek other airports or other means of transportation, the study said.

"What’s at stake is 130,000 jobs, $16 billion in sales," said Jeffrey Zupan, a senior fellow at the plan association and co-author of the report. "If we don’t do the expansion, we’re leaving millions of people unserved. We’ve got to get started now,"

The report recommends redevelopment because there is no other location within 40 miles of Manhattan in which to build a new, major airport.

"The good thing about the Newark option is that you can do it totally within the Newark footprint," Zupan said.

The report does not say how long it would take to complete such a massive undertaking, and it’s not even certain whether a project with such a huge price tag would be approved by the governors of New Jersey and New York.

The airport proposal was unveiled as the Port Authority continues to experience recession-related revenue declines even as it confronts costly projects like redeveloping of the World Trade Center site, raising the Bayonne Bridge roadbed and replacing the Goethals Bridge.

Still, the report says, changes need to be made sooner rather than later.

"The Port Authority should begin to plan now since the airport expansion will not happen overnight and serious capacity deficiencies will become even more apparent in the next ten years," it states.

According to the report, a new 10,000-foot runway at Newark Liberty would replace a shorter strip now used mainly by smaller aircraft. Two other existing runways at Newark measure 10,000 and 11,000 feet and can accommodate larger planes.

The new runway would be built just west of the airport’s two existing longer, north-south runways, and replace the shorter, east-west airstrip on the airport’s northern edge. Terminal B would have to be demolished and relocated entirely, while parts of Terminals A and C would have to be moved, at a cost of $5 billion, about a third of the total expansion cost at both airports.

Another recommendation calls for the extension of PATH rail service from Newark Penn Station to Newark Liberty. Zupan said PATH trains could serve either as a simple link to the airport or replace Newark’s aging AirTrain monorail system, which the report criticized as slow and lacking growth capacity.

Newark Liberty, JFK and LaGuardia had combined total of 104 million passenger-trips in 2009, including 46 million at JFK; 33 million at Newark; and 22 million at LaGuardia. But the study projects the demand will reach 150 million by 2029.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correctly reflect that the proposed new runway would lie to the west of the existing two runways.

Officials discuss new airport security measuresSenator Robert Menendez talks about the need for new airport security measures, passenger Ifoema Anekwe does not like the idea of pat-downs and Newark Liberty International Airport general manager John Jacoby explains the changes at the airport's screening checkpoints.
Video by John O'Boyle