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I will keep this blog post short. I do not want to get in the middle of the ‘one and only’ and the ‘shit’ coin arguments. No doubt about that Bitcoin had its moment, it was all over the place. People even started taking it as the only benchmark for your results, e.g. if your returns were lower than Bitcoin’s, then you suck, you are incompetent and what not. The arguments people were having, and still do, really got beyond good taste. But who am I to judge. Anyway, I don’t want to go there.

One of the characteristics of a trending stock market is sector rotation. In a bull market not all sectors are necessarily trending higher and sectors are taking leadership in turns. This means that some are bound to outperform while the others are under performing. Sector rotation is a very important fuel of a bull market. So identifying sector rotation is crucial to be successful in the stock market. The phrase past performance is not an indication of future results is something that applies here very well!

Sometimes it’s really hard to write a post about a topic I wrote so many times before. I’ve just recently posted an update on the USD view focusing on the EURUSD pair. Even though I am writing about the pound sterling today it goes hand in hand with the bearish US dollar thesis because the cable is arguably the most important GBP pair.

No, I don’t think we are there yet, I don’t think there is a recession imminent just yet as some are suggesting. On the contrary, there are some great things happening right now, some trends are just starting. For instance, electric vehicles sector is just about to take off and bullish oil could just speed up the whole process.

And as you may know, copper is a key element of every electric component because it’s a great conductor. If we assume that a recession is not imminent and among other electrification EV sector is just starting to take off then it is fair to say that demand for copper should pick up too, right? Nadaljuj z branjem “EVs to drive copper prices higher?”

I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.

As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid. Nadaljuj z branjem “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”

In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.

Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.

From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Nadaljuj z branjem “Time for Ethereum’s turn?”

My holidays are over and it was nice to see that things that I writing about are mainly playing out as expected. One of them is also oil. To me it seems it can go a lot higher! There are so many bears because of an over rated shale potential or because so many people think that demand just can’t pick up. I disagree with their arguments, not only that I take the opposite side! Also, there are bulls but who are not really bullish, rather neutral, as they think oil can’t go much higher.

I wrote a lot about my bullish thesis so many times in the last couple of months. In the first one I was writing about my $60 expectations in WTI price and in the second one I wrote an update on the 1st one. I really wouldn’t like to repeat myself , so you are very kindly invited to give them a read. Nadaljuj z branjem “WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to 68?”

I am enjoying my time on holidays now and I wasn’t planning to post much in the next two weeks. But the trading idea I will present in this post very briefly is one of the things that just can’t go unnoticed.

We are in a strong equity bull market and the stronger the market gets, the more angry the bears become. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Demark sequential indicator posted by the bears who tried calling the top over the last year or two. It’s just silly.

Everytime the market makes new all time highs the top pickers come out of the caves and literally start throwing money away. Sure, one of the future all time highs will become the top, but do you have enough money to survive untill we get there?

Maybe my post is marking the top, maybe not, time will tell. No one knows, not me nor you. But I would say, based on all the evidence, we still have quite some upside left. There are more and more markets participating in this bullish trend, which is a sign of strength, not weakness. Nadaljuj z branjem “Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!”

Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.

What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.

I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.

Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar to catch a bid?”

By now you probably already know that I am a long-term gold bull and that I believe gold is forming a major bottom which could push the price much higher in the future. This year the price has steadily been moving higher as expected and suggested many times, but is now in danger of a long liquidation! Nadaljuj z branjem “Gold in danger of a long liquidation!”