Metro export growth may hit 60%

Mayors' report sees boost by 2020 for Phoenix area

Exports from metro Phoenix could grow by 53 to 60 percent by 2020, says a report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors being released today.

The report based the likelihood of export growth for the 300 largest metro areas on the types of products they export and their largest trading partners.

Metro areas that trade heavily with emerging countries or that export chemicals, non-electrical machinery and transportation equipment are expected to have the fastest growth in exports, up to 80 percent for metros like Portland, Chicago and Houston.

Eric Nielsen, director of the U.S. Commercial Service in Arizona, said growth of at least 53 percent sounds reasonable, since the state's merchandise exports grew by 25 percent from 2009 to 2011.

"Of course, in order to achieve it, Arizona's traditionally strong sectors, such as semiconductors, electronics, aerospace and defense, will need to continue to innovate and expand into new markets," he said.

"In addition, many Arizona companies have yet to pursue export opportunities while many others have great potential to increase the number of markets they are selling to. By harnessing this additional export potential, we can further enhance Arizona's continued export prowess."

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale ranks 28th among the nation's 300 largest metro areas for exports, according to the study.

The commercial service recently reported that Arizona exports grew 14 percent, to $13.2 billion, in the first nine months of 2011, compared with the same period in 2010.

Exports grew 15 percent to Mexico in that time and 8 percent to Canada, the commercial service said. Those countries are Arizona's largest trading partners.

Karen Dickinson, a Phoenix attorney who chairs the Arizona Export Council, said Arizona exports are rising for two reasons: the recent recession made companies more interested in diversifying their markets and selling abroad, and more help has become available from federal and state sources.

"You can see that exports are growing as people become more comfortable with the idea," she said.

Two years ago, the federal government kicked off the National Export Initiative to double U.S. exports and add 2 million jobs by the end of 2015.

A variety of agencies, including the Arizona Commerce Authority, received more funds to help counsel smaller and medium-sized companies, those with fewer than 500 workers, increase their exports.

New opportunities open up all the time, especially as more free-trade agreements are negotiated, such as those with South Korea, Panama and Colombia, Dickinson said.

"Arizona companies are not really looking at Panama right now. There is so much opportunity there now because there is so much construction. But there is not much knowledge of the opportunities in Arizona," she said. Work is under way to double the capacity of the canal by 2014.