News

Hog Outlook: June Pork Exports up Compared to Previous Year

12 August 2013

Ron Plain

US - The American Association of Swine Veterinarians says that as of 28 July, PED virus has been confirmed on 434 farms in 16 states, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown.

35.5 per cent of the farms are in Iowa, 23.5 per cent are in Oklahoma and 9 per cent are in Minnesota. Missouri has one confirmed case of PEDv. The number of newly infected farms appears to have peaked in early June. Will infection rates rebound this winter?

US pork exports during June were down one per cent compare to a year earlier despite a 24 per cent jump in exports to our second biggest foreign customer, Mexico. Pork sales to our biggest customer, Japan, were up 7 per cent in June. Russia accounted for the decline in pork exports. In total, 23.8 per cent of US June pork production was exported.

Pork imports during June were up 5.6 per cent compared to last June. The increase in pork imports was due to more Canadian pork. In total, June imports equaled 4 per cent of US pork production.

Live hog imports during June were down 15 per cent with feeder pigs down 18 per cent and slaughter hog imports up 0.7 per cent.

My monthly calculations say year-over-year domestic meat demand was up 1.7 per cent in June with pork up 5.2 per cent, beef up 1.2 per cent, chicken up 0.7 per cent, and turkey down 4.5 per cent.

Crop growing conditions remain much better than last year. As of 4 August, 64 per cent of corn acres were rated in good or excellent condition. That is up one percentage point from the week before and up 41 points from a year ago.

The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $96.88/cwt, up $3.51 from last Friday. Negotiated live weight purchases averaged $75.17/cwt. The eastern corn belt averaged $95.44/cwt this morning. Neither the western corn belt nor Iowa-Minnesota had enough early morning sales for a price quote. Peoria had a top live price this morning of $66/cwt. Zumbrota, MN topped out at $69/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $69.75/cwt, up 75 cents from the previous Friday.

Friday morning's pork cutout value based on mandatory price reporting was $105.87/cwt FOB plants, up $2.20 from the week before and up $13.07 from a year ago. This week's pork belly prices are at record levels. Loin, hams, butt and belly prices were all higher this week. The average hog carcass price is 91.5 per cent of the calculated pork cutout value.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.019 million head, down 0.1 per cent from the week before and down 1.3 per cent compared to the same week last year. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 271.6 pounds, up 1.2 pounds from a week earlier and up 5.9 pounds from a year ago. This is the biggest year-over-year weight increase since January 2011.

The August lean hog futures contract closed at $100.52/cwt today, up $1.27 from the previous Friday. October hog futures ended the week at $84.97/cwt, up $1.02 from the week before. December hogs closed the week at $82.05/cwt.