The following analysis has been used by the
Commission as part of its price adjustment methodology and is
provided here to assist the public in understanding some of the
background factors influencing current market prices.

Crude Track:

Recent Crude (US$/bbl)

Sep 19

$85.70

Sep 20

$86.89

Sep 21

$85.92

Sep 22

$80.51

Sep 23

$79.85

Sep 26

$80.24

Sep 27

$84.45

Sep 28

$81.21

Sep 29

$82.14

Average

Average

Average

2011

2010

2009

January

$89.44

$78.40

$41.96

February

$88.83

$76.16

$38.58

March

$102.74

$81.12

$47.96

April

$109.67

$84.46

$49.82

May

$101.29

$74.14

$55.96

June

$96.40

$75.39

$69.60

July

$97.43

$73.95

$63.93

August

$86.23

$77.00

$71.04

September

$86.13

$75.55

$69.08

October

$81.99

$75.56

November

$84.25

$78.31

December

$89.09

$73.88

US $
Per Barrel

CDN
Cents
Per Litre

CDN Cents
Per Litre

CDN Cents
Per Litre

CRUDE

RUL

F/O

DIESEL

Sep 28/11

$81.21

122.7

99.9

123.9

Sep 28/10

$76.18

100.6

78.3

102.8

YOY Diff.

+5.03

+22.1

+21.6

+21.2

% Change

+6.6%

+22%

+27.6%

+20.6%

Commentary:

1. Platts Inventory Update:

The weekly U.S. Energy Department
("DOE") petroleum inventory assessment report, issued September 28, 2011
showed U.S. crude stocks with an increase of 1.915 million barrels. The
inventory increase is attributed to a rise in imports and a slow down in
U.S. refining operations. Gasoline stocks showed an inventory build
associated with reduced implied demand. Inventory levels of distillate
product increased by 72,000 barrels.

DOE Report:

Weekly (bbl)

Year over Year

Crude

+1,915,000

-4.7%

Gasoline

+791,000

+3.5

Distillates

+72,000

-9.2%

The most recent U.S. refinery
utilization reports issued Sept. 28 noted a decline in capacity
utilization to 87.8 percent. Philadelphia's Sunoco refinery
(335,000 bpd) was shut down for maintenance issues during this
period. ConocoPhillips on Tuesday yielded to the tough economic
climate for East Coast refining, saying it would sell its
refinery in Trainer, Pa., and shut down the facility in six
months if it doesn't find a buyer. That facility will compete
for buyers with two nearby refineries owned by Sunoco Inc.,
which earlier this month said it would idle the plants by July,
2012 if it hasn't sold them as it exits the refining business.

Together, the three refineries can process 700,000 barrels of
crude oil per day, accounting for nearly half of the refining
capacity on the East Coast and about 4% nationwide. The loss of
that supply could push up gasoline prices and improve profit
margins for some refiners, while also making the East Coast more
dependent on gasoline imports.

2. U.S. Economic Highlights:

MasterCard Spending Pulse report issued September 27 noted
continued declining demand for gasoline in the U.S.
The most recent estimate is a decline of 2.7 percent over a year ago.

Recent U.S.
jobless new claims fell to lowest level since April 2, 2011 while
continuing claims also fell this past week. While the unemployment rate
still is at 9.1%, some economists were encouraged by the decline in
jobless claims.

3. Other:

German lawmakers approved further
economic assistance as part of an expansion to the Euro Bailout Fund.
The German increase in its share of loan guarantees should encourage the
remaining countries in the European Union to pass similar assistance
law. Presently, of the 17 Euro zone countries, six remain unsigned to
the financial guarantee extension.