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The Next South China Sea Flashpoint: Unmanned SystemsFrom Elsa Kania, The Diplomat: “In addition to clumsy attempts to justify the seizure of the UUV, Chinese media accounts of the incident have noted not only the perceived potential that U.S. UUVs could collect intelligence on the movements of Chinese submarines, but also that this supposedly more advanced UUV could provide “valuable information.” While it is difficult to test the veracity of either of those assertions, the PLAN’s actions reflect its intensified focus on the potential utility of UUVs. Looking forward, the utilization of unmanned systems in such contested waters could become a prominent aspect of the East and South China Sea disputes and a frequent flashpoint.”

The Smart Politics Behind Abe’s Visit to Pearl HarborFrom Michael Auslin, The Wall Street Journal: “The visit is as much about dealing with looming challenges as atoning for what happened three-quarters of a century ago. Since returning to power at the end of 2012, Mr. Abe has steadily transformed Japan's security policies, shedding some of the restrictions imposed on Tokyo by Gen. Douglas MacArthur during the U.S. occupation. These controversial moves, which allow Japan to engage in collective self-defense with other nations, have been paralleled by steady, if modest, increases in the country's defense budget, and by the forging of new security relationships in Asia and beyond.” ​

No U.S. Aircraft Carrier Currently in the MideastFrom Christopher P. Cavas, Defense News: “The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group chopped out of the European theater of operations Dec. 26, headed home to Norfolk after months of operating in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean, where the strike jets of Carrier Air Wing 3 flew hundreds of missions against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq. The homecoming is set for Dec. 30 – two days shy of the Navy's stated goal of bringing the group home in seven months.”

"Coalitions of the Willing" to Secure Asia's Maritime CommonsFromErik French, RealClearDefense: “As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office, one of the critical issues his administration must confront is the growing challenge to free and secure access to Asia’s maritime commons posed by both state and non-state actors. The administration needs to step up efforts to meet these challenges, but it should not rely exclusively on either bilateral partnerships with U.S. allies or the slow-moving, consensus-based regional institutions that make up the current regionals security architecture.”

Eyes on the Kremlin: Russia and the World in 2016From Fritz Lodge, The Cipher Brief: “During the past year, Moscow has achieved a series of striking foreign policy successes around the world. In Syria, Russian air support and military advisors have turned the tide of the war and helped Syrian President Bashar al Assad drive rebel forces out of their last major urban stronghold in Aleppo. In Europe, Russia’s annexation of Crimea remains largely unchallenged, while Brexit and the rise of anti-establishment populist parties across the European Union have helped draw the bloc’s attention away from Russian interest in Ukraine and the Baltic states. Finally, Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President – allegedly with the indirect aid of a sophisticated Russian cyber campaign – has presented Putin with the prospect of a far friendlier, and inexperienced, counterpart in Washington.” ​

The Party Endures: China and the World in 2016From Will Edwards, The Cipher Brief: “Beijing has slowly and inexorably added to its South China Sea claims—adding missile defense systems and airplane hangars to islands reclaimed from the sea—while dismissing the International Court’s ruling that China’s “Nine-Dash Line” is invalid and does not represent a legitimate territorial claim. For China, this year has been characterized by economic strains and opportunities, growing regional tensions, and at the center of it all, the power consolidation of President Xi Jinping.”

Xi’s Power Play Foreshadows Historic Transformation of How China Is RuledFrom Jeremy Page & Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal: “China’s Communist Party elite was craving a firm hand on the tiller when it chose Xi Jinping for the nation’s top job in 2012. Over the previous decade, President Hu Jintao’s power-sharing approach had led to policy drift, factional strife and corruption. The party’s power brokers got what they wanted—and then some.”

Trump’s Sanity on Nuclear StrategyFrom Medium: “Ignore the hysteria from the choice “experts” the media is eager to quote about the president’s-elect’s recent statement on nuclear weapons. Donald Trump is absolutely right to say “the United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes,” as he did via tweet on Thursday. Arms controllers immediately condemned his remarks and accused him of flirting with an arms race. Unmoved by the wave of condemnation, he doubled down on his position and said during an interview with MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski: “Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”” ​

RUSSIA, LIBYA: Russia Expands Middle East Role to LibyaFrom Stepan Kravchenko & Henry Meyer, Bloomberg: “Russia threw its weight behind a powerful Libyan army commander, Khalifa Haftar, who’s in conflict with the UN-backed government there, saying he must have a role in the leadership of the crisis-wracked state. Russia’s growing role in Libya comes after it turned the tide in Syria’s war through military intervention in support of President Bashar al-Assad against mostly Islamist rebels, as it seeks to restore some of its Soviet-era influence in the Middle East and wider region.”

Trump Signals Shift From Obama's Focus on MultilateralismFrom Julie Pace, AP: “For eight years, President Barack Obama's foreign policy doctrine has been rooted in a belief that while the United States can take action around the word on its own, it rarely should. "Multilateralism regulates hubris," Obama declared. His successor, President-elect Donald Trump, has derided some of the same international partnerships Obama and his recent predecessors have promoted, raising the prospect that the Republican's "America First" agenda might well mean an America more willing to act alone.”

A Friend for Trump in AsiaFrom The Wall Street Journal: "Of the five U.S. treaty allies in the Asia-Pacific, Japan has by far the largest economy, the most capable military and the most strategic-minded political leadership. By going to Pearl Harbor, Mr. Abe is able to bookend President Obama’s recent visit to Hiroshima and highlight Japan’s value to Donald Trump, who as a candidate sometimes talked as if Japan is a free-rider on U.S. security guarantees. The Japanese leader knows he has a good story to tell. Since taking office in 2012 Mr. Abe has steadily strengthened Japan’s ability to defend itself and help the U.S. advance shared interests. Last year he braved raucous street protests and tussles on the Diet floor to deliver a constitutional reinterpretation allowing Japan to engage in “collective self-defense.” This means the Japanese military can use force to protect the U.S. and other friendly nations from attack, even if Japan itself isn’t targeted."Quoting Mao, China Says Taiwan, HK Independence Will Fail 'like Flies'From Reuters: “Quoting a poem by the founder of Communist China Mao Zedong, China's government said on Wednesday that the efforts by Hong Kong and Taiwan independence supporters to link up were doomed to fail, as they would be dashed to the ground like flies.” ​

Obama Has Struck the Right Balance: Opposing ViewFrom Steven Simon, USA Today: “It’s important to consider U.S. strategic interests. - The U.S. could conceivably have done things in Syria beyond what it did. The U.S. began with crushing sanctions to bankrupt President Bashar Assad’s supporters, diplomatic isolation and ”

The international community has spent time and effort trying to piece together an inclusive, representative government of national accord in Libya, but Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to undo all that by pumping up authoritarian strongman Khalifa Haftar as a leader for the country. Bloomberg reports that Russia has been flattering Haftar with visits to Moscow and facetime with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Haftar may also be receiving weapons from Egypt, which has grown increasingly close to Moscow in the past few years. Haftar's control of territory in Libya's oil crescent gives him powerful cards to play within the country's political landscape.

Cracks in the Union: Europe and the World in 2016From Kaitlin Lavinder, The Cipher Brief: “The tumultuous nature of 2016 hit Europe especially hard. Wars in the Middle East became a refugee crisis for Europe, and terrorist groups like the Islamic State roiled the continent. This insecurity, combined with growing discontent over economic repercussions for the “losers” of globalization, fueled the rise of populist parties. The continuing enigma of Russia, from its unchecked actions in Ukraine and Syria to the buildup of troops along its western border, divided Europe further; populist and “illiberal” parties of Europe generally support Russian President Vladimir Putin, while moderate parties have taken a strong stance against him – for example, by emphasizing deterrence through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).” ​

ItalyThe Aegean route is mostly closed, but the migrants keep coming, from Eritrea, Ethiopia and elsewhere. They cross the Mediterranean to Italy, a country struggling to deal with the influx. A political crisis is blooming, and the country’s institutions are straining to keep up. – New York TimesRomaniaIn a surprise move, Romania’s largest political party nominated a woman from the country’s Tatar minority for prime minister on Wednesday. If she wins approval from the president and Parliament, she will be both the first Muslim and the first woman to hold the post. – New York Times

A senior Israeli military official said on Wednesday that Hezbollah militants fighting in Syria were using American-made armored personnel carriers that were originally supplied to the Lebanese Army. – New York Times

A senior Israeli defense official on Wednesday confirmed what US experts had been questioning for more than a month: that US troop carriers provided by Washington to Beirut are being operated by Hizbollah in Syria in support of the Bashar Assad regime, which experts note as a violation of export controls. – Defense News

FPI’s Kirchick: The Berlin Christmas market attack and the likely political backlash

The Obama administration is keeping details about how it is vetting Syrian refugees for terrorism ties classified, drawing concerns from Congress that the administration is using a flawed screening process that expedites the timeframe needed to fully vet foreign individuals, according to new congressional communications obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. – Washington Free BeaconStephen F. Hayes writes: Obama's single-minded pursuit of one legacy-defining accomplishment, the Iran deal, ensures that his legacy will be forever blackened by the tragedy of Syria. His presidency will be remembered as a time when America brushed aside its responsibility as a leader, ignored its responsibility to our fellow human beings, and turned a blind eye to the atrocities in Aleppo and elsewhere. – Weekly StandardCliff May writes: An estimated 500,000 dead, 11 million displaced, millions more living in fear, sorrow and pitiful poverty, Iranian forces backed by Russian forces occupying the heart of the Arab world — yet no-drama Mr. Obama remains so casual, so confident that the decisions he’s made were “the best” and, what’s more, that he made them “consistently.” Is refusing to change one’s mind as conditions worsen and policies fail really a virtue? – Washington Times

The prime suspect sought in the deadly attack on a Berlin Christmas market — a 24-year old Tunisian migrant — was the subject of a terrorism probe in Germany earlier this year and was not deported even though his asylum bid was rejected, a senior official said Wednesday. – Washington PostTwo days after their city suffered one of the most devastating terrorist attacks in recent German history, Berliners were going about their lives with a business-as-usual air. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Searching the cab of the tractor-trailer that plowed through a Christmas market in Berlin, the authorities made two startling discoveries: a badly bruised body with stab and gunshot wounds, and the wallet of a Tunisian labeled a security threat who was supposed to have been deported months ago.ck, as Europeans faced the prospect of a holiday season with the “violent and armed” Tunisian still at large. – New York TimesAnis Amri, a Tunisian migrant whom authorities previously investigated for suspected terror ties and tried to deport, became Germany’s most wanted man as the new prime suspect in the capital’s deadly truck attack. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)Police forces in Germany and across Europe accelerated efforts Thursday to track and catch 24-year old suspect in this week’s Berlin Christmas market attack, as Europeans faced the prospect of a holiday season with the “violent and armed” Tunisian still at large. – Washington PostGerman authorities are offering a reward of up to 100,000 euros ($105,000) for information leading to the arrest of a Tunisian man suspected of involvement in the Berlin Christmas-market attack, identifying him as 24-year-old Anis Amri. – Radio Free Europe/Radio LibertyWhile German authorities continue to hunt for a suspect in the attack that killed 12 people and wounded dozens in Berlin on Monday, details about the victims are emerging. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)She faced down a euro crisis that turned into an existential crossroads for the European Union. She confronted a Russian land grab in Ukraine. Virtually alone among her peers, she welcomed into her country roughly a million migrants who flooded across Europe’s borders. – New York TimesFive days after Donald Trump became the next president of the United States, the South Munich chapter of Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Deutschland, held its first meeting since the U.S. election. In a traditional Bavarian tavern on a quiet residential street, 50-some party members and supporters drank beer and celebrated the victory that they felt was, in many ways, their own. – PoliticoFPI’s James Kirchick writes: Monday's devastating terrorist attack at a Berlin Christmas Market was bleakly inevitable. With their wooden stalls, sickly sweet Glühwein, and fairground spirit, Christmas markets are a beloved German tradition. … Unfortunately, this mixture of nominally Christian iconography, crowded public venue and lax security also renders Christmas markets the perfect target for Muslim jihadists, from whose endless legions the culprit behind this latest outrage appears to have hailed. – New York Daily NewsAndrew C. McCarthy writes: It is not just a matter of weeding out the trained jihadists from among the tens of thousands of refugees the Obama administration has already admitted, and the 110,000 more refugees for whose admission in 2017 the president has paved the way. The real problem is the thousands of assimilation-resistant refugees who will gravitate to and reinforce Islamist communities. They could form the breeding grounds and sanctuaries for the jihadists of tomorrow. – National ReviewMatthias Matthijs writes: Giving Merkel the mantle of moral leadership is based on a misreading of her past 11 years in office. It assumes that Merkel’s three coalitions in Germany and her active steering of the European Union have been unqualified successes. They have not. Rather, supporters of the liberal order should root for an alternative coalition to take shape during next year’s German elections, expected in September 2017, which excludes both Merkel and her Christian Democrats from government. – Foreign Policy

Pentagon officials are downplaying declarations by Iran that it is spending some $1.7 billion provided by the United States on new advanced weapons systems, while also acknowledging that the Islamic Republic continues to build its military arsenal at an increasing rate, according to a Defense Department assessment obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. – Washington Free BeaconJenna Lifhits reports: The Obama administration is facing renewed criticism that it is avoiding confronting Iran over a widening list of the Islamic Republic's sanctions violations and military activities, after State Department officials would not commit to taking punitive action against a top Iranian military official who was photographed touring Aleppo in violation of an international travel ban. – Weekly Standard

How Obama's Iranian Nuclear Deal Enabled Tragedy in AleppoFrom Amir Basiri, Washington Examiner: “In his year-end press conference, President Obama reflected on the tragedy that has befallen Aleppo, Syria, where Iranian-backed militias and Russian warplanes helped Syrian dictator Bashar Assad reclaim the city and conduct a crime against humanity rivaling Rwanda and Srebrenica. "I ask myself every single day, is there something I could do that would save lives and make a difference and spare some child who doesn't deserve to suffer?" Obama said Friday. But there's a lot he could've done in past years — which, unfortunately, he did not acknowledge.”

Editorial: After nearly half a year of purges in Turkey’s security forces after a failed military coup, the assassination of the Russian ambassador by a vetted Turkish police officer suggests that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may face a resilient disloyalty problem. –New York Times

Donald Thieme writes: Compared to the territorial disputes in between the Ottoman and Russian empires, there are three additional modern wrinkles to consider: a continued migration crisis to Europe, the ISIS/Syria fight and an alleged linkage between the Ankara assassination and Turkish activist Fethullah Gulen who today resides in the United States. These three bring the U.S. directly into the foreign policy debris field of yesterday’s killing –USNI News ​