The bottom line is clear: Our vital interests in Afghanistan are limited and military victory is not the key to achieving them. On the contrary, waging a lengthy counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan may well do more to aid Taliban recruiting than to dismantle the group, help spread conflict further into Pakistan, unify radical groups that might otherwise be quarreling amongst themselves, threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy, and prevent the U.S. government from turning its full attention to other pressing problems. -- Afghanistan Study Group

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Abdel Aziz Saleh, a 25-year-old Qayyara resident, said he wants Baghdad to put out the fires as soon as possible. "They
are suffocating us," he said. "The birds, the animals are black, the
people are black. Gas rains down on us at night. Now the gas has reached
the residential areas."

There is no electricity, and daytime temperatures reach 120 degrees Fahrenheit. Unlike in other recently recaptured cities, IS fighters did not dig in, most buildings are intact, and there is little problem with booby traps. However, there is no telling when the oil well fires will be extinguished or the electricity restored.

The impasse between Baghdad and Irbil over oil revenues continues. The dispute in principle is over whether all oil produced within the borders of Sykes-Picot Iraq belongs to the Iraqi state, with revenue to be shared; or whether Kurdistan owns and can sell it's own oil. Kurdistan controls the pipeline from northern Iraq to Turkey, which means that it has prevented Baghdad from selling petroleum from wells it controls near Kirkuk. While negotiations are ongoing, Baghdad is now proposing to export oil from the area through Iran. More on the dispute at the link.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

For some reason, the reported death toll from the attack on American University varies among sources, from 12 to 14. In any event we now have a clearer picture of what happened. Following a car bomb explosion, two gunmen entered the compound. According to a witness, they spoke Kandahari Pashto. It was several hours before security forces were able to kill the attackers. Forty people are wounded, most in critical condition. A more systematic account is here, from the Associated Press, which gives the death toll (apart from the attackers) as 13, including seven students, one teacher, three police officers and two security guards. No-one has as yet claimed responsibility.

FYI, the American University is a private, non-profit institution not affiliated with the U.S. government. However, U.S.A.I.D. did contribute substantial funds to its development.

Update:I found this map from the Institute for the Study of War (click on the linked site for the PDF) showing the control of terrain in Iraq. It's particularly interesting how factionalized the Kurdish-controlled region is. We need to remember that the peshmerga is not a national army of Kurdistan: most units are actually militia of the PUK or KDP. You can also see the presence of Shiite militias in much of the area north of Baghdad, bumping up against Kurdish controlled areas. IS-controlled territory is now fragmented in two main pieces, in the far west around Qaim, and in the north centered on Mosul with a southward and westward projection. We can see how this map changes in coming weeks.

Kurdish president Barzani has visited Turkey and apparently furthered rapprochement between the governments. Remember that as Turkey continues its air campaign against PKK positions in Kurdistan, the KRG does not object.

Note that 2 provincial capitals are in danger of falling to the Taliban, who now control most of Helmand and Kunduz provinces. No word on forward deployment of U.S. forces in Kunduz, but the deployment to Lashkar Gah signals the ineffectiveness of Afghan forces in Helmand.

Thousands of displaced families have returned from Pakistan to Nangarhar (apparently they have been expelled) but they are not receiving any aid. "It is heart-breaking to see the situation some of the families are
living under. Children appear visibly malnourished and families are
lacking clean drinking water, shelter and sanitation facilities," said
NRC´s Protection and Advocacy Adviser in Afghanistan Will Carter, after
visiting the area.

The head of the provincial council in
Salahuddin province, of which Tikrit is the capital, criticized the
judicial process, saying some of the men executed Sunday had been
tortured to extract confessions. Some of
them “were not even present at the scene of the crime,” Ahmed al-Karim
told The Associated Press. “We support the death penalty for those who
committed crimes,” but “the use of violence and torture (in Iraqi
prisons) should be investigated.”

In a statement released late Friday, the Ministry of Peshmerga
Affairs said the Kurdish forces only receive orders from the General
Command in Erbil in northern Iraq. “The central government has neither born the responsibility of
training the peshmerga forces nor provided them with weapons,” the
statement said.

And, according to the KRG, more than 84% of Kurds favor independence. They also claim that a similar majority in disputed areas want to join Kurdistan. In case you are wondering about the back story behind all this, Baghdad recently called for the peshmerga to stop seizing territory in Salah-U-Din province fearing that they want to keep it. Actually Kurdistan is interested in the Kirkuk region and parts of Ninevah province.

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Maybe it's hot where you are, but Iraq and much of the Middle East are broiling in unprecedented heat. Baghdad has topped 109 Fahrenheit every day since June 19. Consider how many displaced people lack shelter. Climate change is devastating agriculture in the region -- which by the way was a contributing cause to the dissolution of Syrian society. One has to wonder whether the region, including Iraq, can sustain its current population in coming years.

I should take note of events in Syria, where Kurdish and Arab forces have taken the town of Manjib,
severing the route between the IS capital of Raqqa and Turkey. While IS is continuing what appears to be a steady collapse, Syrian and Russian forces have trapped some 300,000 people in Aleppo, where they face dire conditions.

Human sovereignty, Qutb firmly upheld, was contradictory to God’s
sovereignty—a rebellion against the laws of God. Inspired by Qutbian
radical ideas, the Islamic State and its parent organization Al Qaeda
are out to establish God’s sovereignty by reviving their much dreamt
Islamic caliphate. Muslims worldwide, however, neither practically make
up a single nation (umma) nor are most of them after the restoration of a caliphate.
The Islamic State, as it stands now, is a caliphate without Muslims, not to talk of the umma.
Most Muslims feel neither any religious nor political affiliations with
it; rather, they view it as a big troublemaker for the Muslim community
worldwide. If public opinion surveys are any indicators, the Islamic
State represents neither the Muslims nor Islam.

Friday, August 12, 2016

Joint U.S.-Kurdish operations said to result in death of a senior IS leader, responsible for oil industry operations. This is of interest because the announcement of the operation by the Kurdish Regional Security Council has forced the Pentagon to acknowledge a U.S. action. The linked article refers to the Pentagons "secret" Expeditionary Targeting Force but obviously it isn't a secret any more.

After so-called Khalidiya Island (not really an island but land in a bend of the Euphrates) is recaptured, Shiite militias find a mass grave containing 200 bodies, believed to be IS fighters. Apparently IS is disposing of its own dead in this way.