This year's election promises to be one of the great experiments in U.S. history.

Is the country ready for an African American president? No one knows for sure. It's increasingly clear, though, that the '08 vote will be a referendum on the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas.

Inevitably, racial attitudes are going to influence that choice. But there is growing evidence that race is losing its potency as a determining factor in U.S. politics.

Some of it comes from a pair of statewide elections in 2006. Both featured breakthrough tries by black Democrats who, in effect, were trailblazers for Barack
Obama. And top Obama strategists were involved in each one.

In Massachusetts, voters chose Deval Patrick as the state's first black governor. David Axelrod, a Chicago media consultant and Obama's chief adviser, worked in Patrick's campaign and has described it as a model for Obama's presidential run.

Like Obama, Patrick ran as an outsider and challenged what he described as the old politics. He convinced voters to think of his candidacy as an unconventional, Internet-based grassroots movement that transcended race. (The linkage between Patrick and Obama produced some uncomfortable moments for Obama during the primary campaign, when similarities between language that both men had used--put in their mouths, presumably, by Axelrod--prompted charges of plagiarism.)

Patrick won in a landslide, after a general election campaign that resembled the one Obama is running against John McCain. He exploited the public's desire for change and tied his Republican opponent to an unpopular Republican administration in the state.

Becoming governor is not the same thing as gaining the presidency, however, and culturally liberal Massachusetts is not America.

Another statewide election that year, which has gotten less attention as a potential model for Obama, took place in Tennessee, where Rep. Harold Ford Jr. tried to become the first black elected to the Senate from the South since the 1800s.

Ford lost, but by less than three percentage points. The close finish sent a clear message: race was becoming less of an impediment for black candidates, even in the South.

The Democrat's defeat, according to officials of both campaigns and independent analysts, had less to do with race than with issues of corruption involving members of his family and his background as a Washington insider.

"Saying race is not a factor at all is naïve," said Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster who conducted opinion surveys in Tennessee during and after the Senate contest. "It's that race is one of many factors that have to be dealt with."

Like Obama, Ford avoided making race the focus of the campaign, despite the news media's attention to it.

"This was not an issue he ran on. He never said, 'Let's make history,'" said Pete
Brodnitz, who was Ford's pollster (and whose firm is the lead pollster for Obama's presidential campaign). "He was very clear that the election was not about race."

Late in October, the national Republican Party ran an ad that attacked Ford for attending a Super Bowl party sponsored by Playboy magazine. In the ad, an attractive blonde cooed, "Harold, call me."

The ad was criticized as racially tinged and quickly became "a big distraction" that interfered with the Democrat's effort to communicate his message through the news media, his pollster said.

Paul Begala, a key strategist in Bill Clinton's rise to the presidency, said the attack on Ford contained "one of the most powerful messages that Republicans always try to pin on Democrats: (that) 'he's not one of us.'"

Attacks on Ford's relatives defined him in negative terms over something he had no control over.

"Perhaps the lessons of that helped Barack's team get him through the Jeremiah Wright" controversy, according to Begala.

Obama responded with a speech about race and later dropped his membership in Wright's former church, but it's not clear that he's put the issue behind him.

John Geer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist, predicts that, just as in the Tennessee race, the "race card is going to get played," in some way, in the fall campaign.

The key "is going to be how Senator Obama handles it and how the news media handles it," he said.

"Racial appeals can often be quite powerful," he added, but they can backfire "if they're pointed out."

That because racism has come to be seen, increasingly, as socially unacceptable, he and others said.

It is part of a gradual evolution, rather than a sea change, in voter attitudes. One element is generational.

"Twenty years ago, most voters had grown up in a society that was still legally segregated. But now, to have a recollection of that you have to be over 55," said Beattie, the Democratic pollster.

Democrats are also making inroads in the suburbs, where voters "are basically beyond race. They're used to living in communities with a fair amount of diversity," said Brodnitz.

The suburbs are only one component, though. Rural areas, older voters and working class communities pose more difficult challenges. Recent polling suggests that many voters still have doubts about Obama's background and values.

Votes that Obama will lose because he is black could well be offset by gains elsewhere, say Democratic and Republican strategists. These include new support from younger voters, Hispanics and blacks, as well as independent white voters impressed by his skills as a candidate and ready to take a chance on change.

In November, Americans will resolve the issue of whether someone other than a white man serves as president. But they may not answer the question of how racial attitudes influenced that decision.

"Somebody may say they are anti-Obama on the grounds of experience. Or they may say that he doesn't share American values because he doesn't wear a flag pin on his lapel," said political scientist Geer. "At one level, those may be legitimate concerns, but are they also a way to cover up racism? For some people, they may be; for others, not."

Sorting through the subtle factors that go into voter choices, especially when race is involved, "is an absolute nightmare," he added. "A lot of people may be calling something racial when it's not. It's going to be very, very difficult to know."

Comments

Mr West, thank you for collectively knee-capping The Swamp's Obamabots. Their favorite argument is "you could only be a racist if you don't love the Messiah".

Of course it will play a factor. The rabid right has created enough imagined reasons (flag pins) for them to hide behind. With the way the republicans have lead this country, any other candidate would be wiping up McBush.

Of course race has played and will play a factor in this election. But not, perhaps, the way the media portrays it.

If Barack Obama was white, he'd be just another way-left senator with a skimpy resume. In other words, another John Edwards.

Obama won the Dem nomination by mobilizing the usual bloc racial vote of his fellow Blacks. Without that bloc racial vote, he's.... another John Edwards.

And he'll play the race-guilt card in the general election, with the help of his look-down-on-us-common-people media cheerleader squad. Absent that race-guilt ploy, he loses, just as John Edwards and John Kerry lost.

Harold Ford Jr.'s "defeat, according to officials of both campaign and independent analysts, had less to do with race than with issues of corruption involving members of his family and his background as a Washington insider."
It seems evident that similar factors are at work preventing Obama from breaking out in the polling. You're partly correct, bill r; he SHOULD be polling much farther ahead.
> First, he's a Northern Rustbelt politician, and so is automatically distrusted by a large swathe of the electorate. And rightly so IMO.
> Reinforcing the first point is the fact that he's a creature of The Chicago Machine and he's carrying ALL of the dirty baggage that goes with that.
> He can not shake the elitist attitude. Condesension fairly oozes from his pores. Its as if he is telling the voters don't ask me questions, I know what's best. And his occasional attempts at folksiness seemed forced and even comical.
Sloganeering without new policy proposals, chanting the mantra "change" while evincing the same old political business as usual will only carry him so far. That has won him the D party loyalists. The people in the middle -- who Obama loyalists mock for their simplicity -- demand something more concrete.

The above article wasn't written by the Democratic Party National Committee.

But it might as well have been.

The DNC loves to see a reporter 'balance" out quotes from David Beattie, "a Democrat pollster", with Paul Begala, a Democrat 'strategist", with Pete Brodnitz, Obama's pollster, and with John Geer, who's so close to Democrat Harold Ford that he co-teaches a Poli Sci course with Ford.

4 Democrats, 0 Republicans. This is how the DNC media balances articles.

The article suggesting that Obama didn't make race an issue is BS. Aside from all the racismclaims he injected toward the Clintons, and G Ferraro, his very attendence is a racist church for 20 years pulls race into the entire thing from the get go. People CREDIT Obama for race being discussed so much now, but that is a farce. It's not being discussed because of some good doer thing from Obama. It got discussed at the point that his own Rev Wright made a grave decission to go outside of his safe Chicago Bubble and preach to the Main Stream Media. It was obvious that he was completely clueless...he really did think that we would support such dribble. This all started with racism on Obama's side. Will some vote for Obama because he's black like them, sure, look at the numbers. Will some not vote for him because of his views, sure, just like some will say that is because of racism ha ha.

In the land where institutionalized racism was born, if you discount India and South Africa, America faces a true test to see if it can shake this curse. Obama is a man who worked hard, excelled in everything that America values -good education, public service, sacrifice, strong family, commitment to excellence, dynamic public speaker, visionary. McCain, on the other hand is a graduate of the prestigious Naval Academy at the very bottom, enjoyed the benefits of a well connected military family, which helped him get into pilot training, and helped him survive a mediocre career that would not have been possible for most Navy officers; enjoyed the adulation of the country as a POW survivor, which apparently accrues to him expertise in the strategy for fighting and winning wars; and enjoying a Senate career, which has many question raised about his voting record on veterans benefits and protections for the underclasses of America. He talks a good game.

With John McCain supporters they have another "can do no wrong" candidate like GW Bush. They don't care what he does or has done. He has their vote. That's easily 25% of the country. That includes them folks what cling to their guns; thump their Bibles; drink a six pack a night at the local bar; believe an unwanted pregnancy was the fault of a woman who shouldn't have spread her legs so she should deliver; believe they lost their jobs to affirmative action programs; think the confederate flag is cool even if it is a symbol of contempt for America and the remnant of the only massive attempt to overthrow the government; and believe that regardless of all the deceptions and falsehoods the war in Iraq was the right thing to do.

Obama won the Dem nomination by mobilizing the usual bloc racial vote of his fellow Blacks. Without that bloc racial vote, he's.... another John Edwards.
Posted by: Guevara | July 26, 2008 8:26 AM

Brilliant...simply brilliant. Hate to tell you but the "fellow blacks" voted 90% for Gore. If blacks would only vote for a black....what would the white vote for? Do you mean to tell me all whites are above that? Come on down south where I live...stick an Obama sticker on your car and see what happens.

GEEP-every land has institutionalized racism. Any land where you give special rights or privilages to one race over another, you will have racism.

Obama hasn't succeeded or excelled at anything. He was a horrible community organizer. He was a lousy state senator who couldn't figure out how to vote. He's a mediocre lawyer. He's only gotten ahead thru connection with a racist church. He's connected to Rezco and the Chicago political machine. OH, and his public speaking (uh um uh um) without a teleprompter or speech writer is equal to that of a third grader. His ideas are NOT NEW, they're just rehashed failed ideas of the sixties.

Bush still has 67% of support from Republican because he shares the same values. Obama's values are based on Marxism. While McCain may not have been more an average officer in the Navy, I think his military experience in Vietnam still supercedes Obama's non-existant experience.

You guys keep saying Bush and McCain are one in the same, so how do you explain McCain getting numbers that are like Obama's in the polls?

I,a black man from Africa will not vote for Barack Obama because of the way the MSM treat any other candidates who have ran or is running against him.I am glad I will not be called racist like the whites poeple who will not vote for him.

You're having a conversation with bruce (Guevara), his wife (Teresa), and another of his sock-puppets (mink/celes) That's why Andrew Peters is under the impression that readers are overwhelmingly anti-Obama on this site. Of course, that's the impression the rnc and it's paid minions want us to come away with.

the true story is race matters most it is 50% cause o the dead equality of polling data.
Any campain by now by what has happened would have tipped the scales--> Obama is naive talking to Iraq and North Korea but guess what same guys TALK to North Korea and Iran...his foreign policy is adopted. Guy is naive -- on time table of withdrawal---> Maliki endorse, Bush endorses timeline,, ---McCain now says time table is good.... Current president has lowest ratings --McCain tows the same line (tax cut etc), Americans are suffering economically---still race is dead equal. Bush McCain started a war in Iraq before finishing war in Afghanistan---> 4000 Amrican solders lost their lives and trillions of dollars went ----> still polls are dead equal! Obama ---> shows wisdom above any of us in guessing or really deciphering the required way forward and is correct ----> still dead hit? Obama is said to be weak naive --does not know how to relate internationally--> But he goes to prove it through many countrie, Afghanstan, Iraq, Israel, France, German, UK, shows better prospects of restoring America's position and trategic support financially and military from Europe to fight terrorism and pressure Iran democratically first---- polls are still dead equal...Conclusion he is correct intelligent but they hate him....why? he is too correct? He is favoured by events and policy over McCain in Economics, a thing that matters most to Americans----still polls
He was right on trying to prevent war on Iraq while we still engaged in Afghanstan.....
He has run the most challenging campain organisation for both party primaries better than the Clinton (very big Name in American Democratic Party) any one would consider it wishfull thinking that he could win against Mrs Clinton(Even Mr. McCain baited on Obama because there is always that race thing that can be used rather than facts on the ground ---where he would loose 10:2) Even now he is not doing anything but nibbling at Obama only behavior of an Experienced man this? no i doubt? --Obama caused gas increase?? is it realistic? or toy staff down-right low! common! America is already running on Obama's foreign policy -- so that the is no arguement no need to change things! what a clever way Bush is doing it!

Hohn, you got it all wrong, while Obam was in Europe acting like the egolitical idiot that he is, McCain was back here in our world attending to things that are important to the voters in the US. Obam successful! What did he accomplish? Did Europe help him solve the housing crises? Did Europe help solve the high price of gas in this country? Did Europe get back the jobs that were taken from the people of this country? Please explain what success did Obam get that would be of any help at all for the people of the US? Looking presidential? How? All I saw was an empty suit parading around like a sleazy stripper on the runway.

Race may not decide the election, but it has been and will continue to be the single most influential element of it.

An integral part of "the story" propounded by Obama and Axelrod, race is a "card" that has been and continues to be played by Obama & Company. Indeed, it was implicit in the very first words spoken by Obama in his recent speech in Germany, in which he referred to himself as not "looking like" Americans the Germans had previously seen.

And while white voters split their votes almost evenly between the candidates in the Democratic primaries and caucuses, 92% of blacks - an overwhelming majority - identified Hillary Clinton and other Democratic candidates as "not one of us" and voted nearly unanimously for Obama.

If Obama wins, then, his racial background will undoubtedly have played a large and, significantly, positive role in his victory, primarily because, based on their votes, the majority of whites do not appear to be racist, while the majority of blacks apparently are (a concept which became rather overwhelming clear during the discussion of Rev. Wright's racist beliefs).

And if Obama loses, the overwhelming yet superficial assumption will be - American voters (or Republicans) are racist.

Viewed in these terms, the election will clearly be a referendum on race.

And what's ironically notable is that the America Obama and Axelrod have crafted is the absolute antithesis of the America of which Martin Luther King dreamed, that is, an America in which a man would be judged by the content of his character and not the color of his skin.

Like "the smartest guys in the room" who were gleeful at the prospect of fleecing "Grandma Millie" in their single-minded pursuit of wealth, Obama and Axelrod (not unlike Bush and Rove before them) are apparently people who believe no philosophy is too valuable to shuck aside in the road to the White House. If he is elected, it will be interesting to see what of an already decimated America remains!

I don't try to suggest that people are voting for Obama because they are racist (some may be). If I had someone of my own race that was running and there never had been anyone in my race as a president, I would pick them too. I see those numbers and get frustrated that more aren't turned off by some of the issues that have turned off a good lot of Americans. It makes me think that the issues will be overlooked.

Wages are stagnant, prices rising dangerously, government spending out of control, Federal Reserve creation of money and credit out of control, debts of every kind at record levels and one-half the Army occupying the Middle Eastern oil fields.

Theresa: say what you want about Obama...that's YOUR opinion ...but when you talk trash about his speaking ability, it SURE IS FUNNY that people talk all the time about what a dynamic speaker he is. Did you go to Harvard or teach Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago, one of the top schools in the world? I think you resent Obama's success, and guess what?? If he doesn't win the presidency, he's STILL going to be doing JUST FINE. IF WE GET YOUR BOY McCain, YOU may not be able to say the same IN THE NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE!!! DO YOU RESENT OBAMA'S EDUCATION??? That's how you come across...well tough!!!! GET AN EDUCATION and you won't have ANY REASON to be resentful or jealous...ya dig??? Ha!

Help me understand. If I vote against Obama, due to his position on energy, I am a racist. However, 90+% of Afro American's voting for him is not. Should I vote against a Republican, due to their failure to control spending, I am enlightened. We have become fans of political parties. This lesson, learned from the Yankee's verse the Red Sox fans is dooming the country to less than the best leadership.

Post a comment

(Anonymous comments will not be posted. Comments aren't posted immediately. They're screened for relevance to the topic, obscenity, spam and over-the-top personal attacks. We can't always get them up as soon as we'd like so please be patient. Thanks for visiting The Swamp.)