Well, out of the Oscar contenders in these categories, I've only seen The Queen, Volver, Notes on a Scandal, and Little Children. But I have seen the trailers of most of the others and have watched the Golden Globe and other award ceremonies. Based on that and some guesswork, here are my predictions:

1. Best Picture: The Queen

2. Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

3. Best Actress: Helen Mirren

4. Best Supporting Actor: Jackie Earle Haley

5. Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

6. Best Director: Stephen Frears

7. Best Original Screenplay: The Queen

The winner gets their foot imprinted on the Walk of Fame? Does this come with an all-expense paid trip out there? And will Rockgor put the winner up? LOL!

We watched The Departed last weekend and are watching Babel this weekend. Both are out on DVD. Usually, I go into the Oscars not seeing any of the films, which is frustrating. Oh, I also saw Half Nelson a while back.

Grand prize includes an all-expense paid trip to LA, accomodations at the Beverly Hills Hotel, and dinner at Rockgor's house.

I was so off on my Globe picks, I don't know why I'm bothering, but I'm usually much better with the Oscars:

Best Picture: Okay, I know how many people criticized last years batch as week, but I think this is a much weaker year. I was underwhelmed by a lot of these films (didn't mean I didn't like them, but) The Queen was the most pleasant surprise for me, and Little Miss Sunshine was just delightful, but best picture?

I think this will go to "Babel" for the same reason "Crash" won last year. "Little Miss Sunshine" could pull a huge upset, as could "Letters from Iwo Jima", or the "Departed" could ride on Martin Scorsese's coattails, but I doubt it (look at Brokeback/Ang Lee last year.

Prediction: Babel
Personal Choice: The Queen (Flawlessly executed in every manner) Then again, it was a simple film...

2. Best Actor: Two person race - Forrest Whitaker and Peter O'Toole. It's criminal that O'Toole has not won, but I think he will be 0-8. This is Whitaker's to lose. His work is amazing in this film, his body of work is impressive, and he's darn well liked.

Prediction & Choice: Forrest Whitaker

3. Best Actress: Helen Mirren. End of subject. Too bad that Kate Winslet's wonderfully understated work will once again be overlooked, and that Meryl will yet again be passed over (can you believe she hasn't won since 1981! Think of the movies she's lost for: Silkwood, Out of Africa, Bridges of Madison County, Ironweed... It's disgusting she's only won two) But Mirren was just sublime.

Prediction & Choice: Helen Mirren

4. Best Supporting Actor: Harder to choose. Alan Arkin is another actor who has been overlooked for too many years. Jackie Earle Haley was brilliant in "Little Children" and Djimon Hounsou is always great. And Mark Wahlberg held his own against Nicholson! But I think it will go to Eddie Murphy in the career-reviving "Dreamgirls"

Prediction: Eddie Murphy
Personal Choice: Jackie Earle Haley

5. Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi both took my breath away in "Babel", Cate Blanchett ties Kate Winslet as the best actress of their generation, and Abigail Breslin was delightful in "Little Miss Sunshine", but she doesn't really belong in this field. Jennifer Hudson made me forget Jennifer Holiday when singing "I'm not going", not an easy task. But am I the only one who noticed that she was only good when singing? Her acting outside of that was wooden. This was not a film debut by a singer of the magnitude of Streisand or Diana Ross. But that one number blew everyone away, and she's won just about everything under the sun so far (and she's from Chicago!!!!) so...

Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Personal Choice: Rinko Kikuchi

6. Best Director If Scorsese doesn't win this, there will be rioting in the Kodak Theatre.

Prediction and Choice: Scorcese

7. Best Original Screenplay - This is tough. How can the best picture not win the screenplay category it's in? But I think that is what will happen. I believe that it is between "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine" (for those who want it to win something.) I think "Pan's Labyrinth" could be a spoiler, too, but I'm sure that will win best foreign film.

I was promised the "booby prize" of a weekend at Rock & Gordon's for flubbing the Golden Globe predictions, and I'm still waiting! Gary and I drove around California for three days looking for their place. It would help if we had an address...

You'll have to ask Rockgor about your booby prize! As far as where he lives, I would look for a bridge game somewhere in the environs of Silver Lake.

Very well thought out predictions. We're watching Babel tonight, so I'll post my predictions tomorrow.
I loved Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed, but I can't see either of them as best picture of the year. It's hard to believe Peter O'Toole has never won best actor, isn't it? Lawrence of Arabia? My Favorite Year? The Lion in Winter?

Was Cher actually better in "Moonstruck" than Meryl Streep was in "Out of Africa" Was Helen Hunt really better in "As Good As It Gets" than Judi Dench in "Mrs. Brown"? I love Maggie Smith, but was she really better in "Prime of Miss Jane Brodie" than Jane Fonda was in "They Shoot Horses, Don't They?" Was Roberto Benigni really better than Ian McKellen in "Gods and Monsters"?

Best picture: Babel
Best director: Alexandro Gonzales Inirritu, Babel
Best actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Best actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best supporting actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Best supporting actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Best original screenplay: The Queen

Looks almost the same as Callum's, except for Best Director.
[This Message was Edited on 02/24/2007]

Weren't those shadow dancers amazing? I was also glad to see Forrest Whitaker give such an articulate speech, after his horrendous speeches and the Globes and SAG. I liked Ellen, but I have to say that, in her first outfit, I couldn't stop thinking of Shirley Jones in the Partridge Family...

Who was that obnoxious guy backstage they kept cutting to? Cut him out, and the show would have been under 3.5 hours!

Not sure, but I think Rock lives somewhere near where the old cowboy star, Tom Mix, used to live. The Ivanhoe reservoir is in that part of LA, too, as is the location where DW Griffith's massive Babylon set was for his silent epic, Intolerance. You'll have to ask Rock and Gordon what their serving.

I agree with you about Ellen's Shirley Jones look and the lame shots of the guy backstage! But there was a great shot of Scorsese peering out from stage right after they announced Best Picture.

Forest Whittaker's speech was articulate and moving. I felt a bit badly for Peter O'Toole, but I suppose an Oscar isn't everything. Maybe it isn't too late for old Peter.

I honestly don't know how the shadow dancer did it. They were amazing, especially in forming the shape of a gun and then firing a bullet.

What was wrong with Clint Eastwood? Was he drunk? Or is he just getting old?

He's had that trouble speaking for a while, and he thought he could memorize the speech, and vainly left his reading glasses off-stage for the presentation. It might be age, or maybe CFS/Fibro fog, or maybe he's on pain medication, but it seems to be struggling to find the right word. I don't think it's a substance abuse problem at all. I mean, he still was with it enough to translate Italian! Is there nothing the man can't do?

I made the joke about Ellen's first outfit, and it DID remind me of Shirley Jones, but Shirley was beautiful, and Ellen looked great, I thought! Remember how absurd she looked in a dress when she hosted the Grammys for the first time? She almost looked like a man in drag.

That's an awful distance to collect the prize - perhaps Rock and Gordon can come out to Chicago to make the dinner? Great weather out here! Most of the snow missed us - just a bunch of slush.

I felt bad for Peter O'Toole as well, but he really didn't deserve it for this movie - it would have just been a sympathy vote, and not fair to Forrest, who gave a career-topping performance.

I live on the hazy boundry of Silverlake and Echo Park. Don't know where Tom Mix used to live. But every square foot of LA, like Washington D.C., is historic.

Every street you drive down is where a movie was shot, or a celebrity. Where a studio was located; where a drunken star crashed a car. Where Alfalfa or William Desmond Taylor was murdered. Where Ammie Semple McPherson or Robert Schuller took up a collection.

I guess the last time I was in Chicago was in the 60s. I hear it still has the same crooked politicians and brutal cops, just a little more polished. Kinda like here, I guess.

I read that Greer Garson holds the record for the longest Oscar speech. Guess Sally Fields has it for the most inane.

Drop by any time guys. You don't need to bring your own booze, but bring a chair. We only have one in the living room. It's the folding kind that goes w/ a card table.