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Saturday, 13 July 2013

History Repeats: Rome and Egypt, by Manda (MC) Scott

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I spent yesterday
evening at Rossiter books with the wonderful Andrew Taylor: one of the best
historical writers alive today (do read ‘The Scent of Death, his latest book
that explores New York, the bastion of loyalty to the English Crown during the
war of Independenc).

We started off the
evening by looking at how we’d both made the shift from crime writing to
historical writing but the conversation slipped sideways, as these things
always do, into the fact that history seems doomed to repeat itself: in our own
personal lives, in public life, in the great span of empires and civilisations,
we seem doomed to wander in great, repeating cycles.

Or perhaps it’s
just that, as writers, we are doomed to see the patterns in things, and then to
imagine that they are repeating: this may also be true. Certainly, having spent
a year immersed in AD69, the Year of the Four Emperors in Rome – which lasted
18 months and in which there were, strictly speaking, 5 men who called
themselves Emperor, even if one of them never made it to Rome – I can’t help
but see startling parallels with what’s happening just now in Egypt.

Morsi's ousters celebrate in Tahrir Square

So, whether it’s
authorial paranoia, or a genuine recycling of inevitable history, it’s worth
another look at the past and the present.

The differences
shroud the similarities and the most obvious of these is that Egypt is hardly a
superpower in the way that Rome was: and Hosni Mubarak was not a hereditary
ruler who clawed his way to power over the murdered bodies of his
relatives.He was, however, a man who
ruled largely by force, and by intimidating the opposition, even if he did not,
as far as we know, go as far as Nero went in ensuring that the opposition
remained cowed.

Nero, taken by Bibi: Saint-Pol, Wikimedia Commons

Nero – who did
rule the single superpower of his age -overspent to such an extent that the treasury was in danger of
bankruptcy.His answer was not austerity
–he cared too much about what the common people thought of him - but rather to
present the Senators, (who were the super-rich of their age) with the option to
kill themselves and leave their entire estates to the Imperial treasury , or stay
alive, in which case he’d let his executioners wax creative on their families
and they would die last after they’d seen each of those they loved die ghastly
deaths.A great many good men fell on
their swords, and those left behind were too cowed to do much about it – until
he killed Corbulo, and put down the Pisoan conspiracy and the legions decided
it was time to lead a revolt.

The situation in
Egypt is less clear cut but there is no doubt that Mubarak used the powers of
police and army to suppress dissent and particularly to suppress the Muslim
Brotherhood and what’s striking is that in each case, the army (the legions in
Rome) brought down the ruler and then took a relative step back to allow a new
Emperor/President to take over.

Mubarak, Former President

In Rome, Galba
was the first of the four men to reach Rome and name himself Emperor.He had been a legionary commander but then in
those days, legionary commanders were Senators and every Senator had to have
spent some time commanding a legion: It’s one of the reasons that some legions
made outstanding mistakes (the XIIth) while some were led by men of military
inspiration (Vespasian and all the legions he led, including the by then
‘unlucky’ XIIth).By the time he took
the Imperial throne, he was Governor of Spain, which was a political position.

And here the
similarities start.Everyone thought
Galba would make a good Emperor until he actually started the job, at which
point, it took a remarkably short time for everyone except Galba and his
closest associates to realise he was worse than Nero had been: not an ‘actor’
or a musician, not given to spending money on wild artistic ideas, not prone to
roaming the streets after dark assaulting girls and boys he fancied… but
nonetheless, he was a martinet of the worse proportions, and nobody wanted him
in the post.

It was the
legions who replaced him and, as in Egypt, they were split.The Praetorian Guard in Rome killed Galba and
installed Otho, while the legions in Germany gave their oath to Vitellius.These two men were second and third of the
four, respectively and the civil war thus begun would have been far, far worse
had not Otho done the decent thing and fallen on his dagger to prevent men from
throwing away their lives in his name. One month after Vitellius arrived victorious
in Rome, the legions of the east, of Judaea, Syria and Alexandria (which was
then the capital of Egypt) took a look at their comrades in the west and,
deciding they could have a bit of the cherry too, declared for Vespasian.

Vespasian, image byShakko wikimedia commons

The point, it
seems to me, is that the legions, once they had realized they could make or
break the Emperor, carried on until they got one they could all agree on.Vespasian was one of the greatest emperors
Rome ever had, largely because he didn’t really want the job, but, having been
offered it, was a good enough organizer, a good enough military strategist –
and a good enough Emperor once he returned to Rome – to be allowed to stay in
post.

And so in Egypt,
the generals installed Mubarak, one of their own and his reign was lengthy, but
still, the army sided with the people when the riots became overwhelming. The
army stepped back and let the Muslim Brotherhood install one of their own as
leader, but they were not slow to get rid of Mohamed Morsi when his
incompetence and corruption became evident.

That’s two
down.And here is where I think history
is repeating itself.The gap between
Emperors reduced exponentially in ancient Rome: Galba to Otho was 9
months.Otho to VItellius was 3
months.Vitellius to Vespasian was one
month (tho’ it took longer for Vespasian’s forces actually to take Rome).

If Egypt follows
the pattern, we may see another President relatively soon, but the gap, I
think, between his taking power and losing it, may be measured in weeks and
months, not years, should he prove (as is likely) not to be up to the job.

What Egypt needs is a Vespasian: a
pragmatist, a generally sane, thoughtful, humane and above all, competent,
individual.Like Rome, there is no
chance that a woman could take the top job, but in default of that, we have to
hope that there’s someone with the courage to put his head above the parapet,
and the foresight to lead the nation into peace: Rome’s civil war touched
almost all parts of the Empire.Egypt’s,
should it spiral out beyond the borders, may well trigger another global
meltdown. And as Einstein so presciently said: “We do not know with what
weapons the third World War will be fought, but the fourth will be fought with
sticks and stones.”

3 comments:

Such an interesting post thank you. It's heartbreaking to see what's going on at the moment...I was there a couple of years ago...just after the riots...police were still on the streets...and yet everyone was so hopeful.But even then,several people forecast exactly whatat has happened...

Thank you.... it does seem desperately sad. What I didn't write about (but perhaps should have done) is the appalling treatment of women - over a hundred rapes in Tahrir square in the first week of this current round of riots. Is misogyny endemic in the middle east? Is it impossible for women to feel safe in the company of men? I am utterly appalled, but don't know what we in the west can do - women need a voice in the future of Egypt, but if the men agree on anything, it's that this isn't going to happen.

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