NOAA predicts an active hurricane season

As we have previously discussed, there’s ample reason to expect a very active hurricane season this year.

And so it wasn’t too surprising this morning when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the National Hurricane Center, released an especially bullish forecast. They’re predicting:

• 14-23 Named Storms

• 8-14 Hurricanes

• 3-7 Major Hurricanes

• An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Heretofore the general consensus has been around 15 named storms, however NOAA has significantly upped the ante with what is essentially a prediction of 18.5 named storms. That’s an incredibly active year considering, over the long-term, the Atlantic basin sees about 10 named storms a year.

So what’s driving these forecasts? Hysteria?

Hardly. The fact of the matter is that water temperatures in the region of the Atlantic where tropical storms generally form is already at July levels, and it’s late May. In fact, temperatures in the Atlantic tropics are the highest in at least half a century and substantially warmer than they were in May, 2005.