Accessible Version

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2011 through 2013 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDPPercent

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

Actual

2.4

2.3

(2.8)

0.2

2.8

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.2

4.5

5.0

3.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

3.9

4.4

4.6

2.8

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

3.4

3.5

3.7

2.5

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

3.2

3.4

3.0

2.4

Unemployment ratePercent

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

Actual

4.5

4.8

6.9

10.0

9.6

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

9.0

8.4

7.9

6.2

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

9.0

8.1

7.2

6.0

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

8.8

7.6

6.8

5.0

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

8.4

7.2

6.0

5.0

PCE inflationPercent

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

Actual

1.9

3.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.3

1.0

1.2

1.6

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.0

0.7

0.6

1.5

Core PCE inflationPercent

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

Actual

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.7

0.8

-

-

-

n.a.

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.8

2.0

2.0

n.a.

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.3

1.5

2.0

n.a.

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.0

1.0

1.2

n.a.

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

0.7

0.6

0.6

n.a.

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

2.4 - 2.5

0

1

0

0

0

0

10

11

2.6 - 2.7

0

1

0

1

0

0

3

1

2.8 - 2.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

4

3.0 - 3.1

0

3

0

0

2

2

2

2

3.2 - 3.3

3

1

0

2

0

1

0

0

3.4 - 3.5

4

6

4

0

1

1

0

0

3.6 - 3.7

4

5

1

1

1

0

0

0

3.8 - 3.9

4

0

1

0

2

3

0

0

4.0 - 4.1

2

1

4

4

5

2

0

0

4.2 - 4.3

1

0

3

3

1

1

0

0

4.4 - 4.5

0

0

5

4

2

3

0

0

4.6 - 4.7

0

0

0

3

3

4

0

0

4.8 - 4.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2011

2012

2013

Longer Run

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

4

5.2 - 5.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

7

5.4 - 5.5

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

5.6 - 5.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.8 - 5.9

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

6.0 - 6.1

0

0

0

0

1

1

3

3

6.2 - 6.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

6.4 - 6.5

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

6.6 - 6.7

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

6.8 - 6.9

0

0

0

0

3

2

0

0

7.0 - 7.1

0

0

0

2

7

7

0

0

7.2 - 7.3

0

0

1

1

3

2

0

0

7.4 - 7.5

0

0

2

0

0

2

0

0

7.6 - 7.7

0

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

7.8 - 7.9

0

0

4

2

2

2

0

0

8.0 - 8.1

0

0

7

7

0

0

0

0

8.2 - 8.3

0

2

1

2

0

0

0

0

8.4 - 8.5

1

0

1

2

0

0

0

0

8.6 - 8.7

2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

8.8 - 8.9

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.0 - 9.1

6

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.2 - 9.3

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.