Thursday, November 08, 2012

Running the Numbers on Climate Change

Pricewaterhouse Coopers figures that, from now straight through to 2050, we need annual, global carbon emissions cuts of 5.1% if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Efforts since 2000, aided by the Great Recession, have resulted in cuts of just 0.8% per year. At that rate, says PwC, we are headed for 6C of warming by the end of the century.

The report also confirms that greatest rises in greenhouse gas
emissions came from the emerging E7 economies of China, India, Brazil,
Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey, whose cumulative 7.4 per cent
annual increase in emissions swamped record levels of reductions in the
UK, France, and Germany.

PwC warns sustained economic growth in
these countries could "lock in" high carbon assets that will make it
significantly harder for them to decarbonise over the coming decades.

...Meanwhile, businesses in carbon-intensive sectors must also anticipate
"invasive regulation" and the possibility of stranded assets, said
Jonathan Grant, director of sustainability and climate change at PwC.

"Resilience
will become a watchword in the boardroom – to policy responses as well
as to the climate," he said. "More radical and disruptive policy
reactions in the medium term could lead to high-carbon assets being
stranded."

"The new reality is a much more challenging future in
terms of planning, financing and predictability," Grant added. "The
challenge now is to implement gigatonne-scale reductions across the
economy, in power generation, energy-efficiency, transport and industry,
as well as REDD+ in forested nations."