March 3, 2016

Comparing Australia's relations with the 3 CEP countries - Japan much more important

Some stirring music in this 2010 youtube "The Top 10 Best Diesel-Electric Submarine in the World". China's Yuan "7", Soryu "6" under-rates them. The old Sodermanland at "5" is over-rating - surely Gotland better! Scorpene at "3" (providing much input into Shortfin) is OK, Lada at "2" Nope,
Type 212 (much input into Type 216) at No. "1" debateable - TKMS would be happy.
---

This is particularly useful if there were a correlation between the number of mentions on countries/peoples and the choice of CEP winner. This is noting that the Governments of France and Germany (and Japan of course) have leant weight to the corporate bids.

Also important is the more subjective element of the context of each comment. Quoting actual paragraphs below does to some extent remove the distortions of a document analyst's preconceptions. Distortion is known as the sin of "situating an analysis".

2.105 Australia welcomes the comprehensive plan of action negotiated
between the Permanent Five members of the United Nations Security
Council (the United States, Russia, China, France and the United
Kingdom) plus Germany [P5 + 1] ...on Iran’s nuclear program.

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.86 Australia will also work with other partners, [War on Terror] ...This includes cooperation with a
broad coalition of concerned countries, including...Germany.FRANCE/FRENCH

10 mentions.

2.69 To help countries in our immediate neighbourhood respond to the
challenges they face, Australia will continue to play an important
regional leadership role. ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New
Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.105 [see above]

4.121 [see above]

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime
security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States
and Japan.

5.83 Australia and France share a longstanding and close defence
relationship with a shared commitment to addressing global security
challenges such as terrorism and piracy. We are strong partners in the
Pacific where France maintains important capabilities and we also work
closely together to support the security of our respective Southern
Ocean territories. Under the FRANZ Arrangement between France,
Australia and New Zealand the three partners coordinate humanitarian
and disaster relief operations in the Pacific. Australian and French
defence forces worked alongside each other to provide life-saving
humanitarian assistance to Vanuatu in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Pam.

5.84 Following the 13 November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, Australia has
expressed its unwavering solidarity with the people of France. Australia
will continue to work with France and other like-minded countries to
combat Daesh as part of the fight against terrorism.

JAPAN/JAPANESE

36 mentions

Most are below.

Page 22 Executive Summary [no paragraph number available] "As Australia’s strategic environment becomes more complex it is important
to further develop our international partnerships including with our allies
the United States and New Zealand, and with Japan, Indonesia, India,
Singapore, the Republic of Korea, China and other key partners."

2.3 " Three Free Trade
Agreements, with Korea, Japan and China, have entered into force since
December 2015. The Trans Pacific Partnership between 12 regional
nations, which account for 40 per cent of global trade, including the
United States, Japan and Australia, has great potential to further drive
opportunities for growth in Australia."

2.37 Asia’s defence spending is now larger than Europe’s. [Japan is in Figure 1]

2.69 ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New
Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.72 ...The waters of South East Asia carry the great majority of Australia’s international trade including to our three
largest export markets in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Nearly
two thirds of Australia’s exports pass through the South China Sea,
including our major coal, iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports...

2.80 Australia is committed to working with the countries of South East Asia,
and with the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand,
India and China to support security, development and growth.

2.85 Australia has a deep and abiding interest in peace, stability and security
in North Asia. More than half of Australia’s exports are to North Asia,
with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea being three of Australia’s
four biggest trading partners. Almost all of that trade, by volume, moves
by sea. While our interests in peace and security in North Asia are vital,
our capacity to influence events acting alone is limited. Our defence
engagement in North Asia will continue to be based on partnerships,
including with Japan, the Republic of Korea, and our alliance with the
United States.

2.91 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced self-defence forces
and is an important contributor to regional and global security. Australia
welcomes the prospect of Japan playing a larger role in international
security and will continue to deepen and broaden our growing security
cooperation with Japan. More details on the Australia-Japan relationship
can be found in Chapter Five.

3.9 below this para is [Figure 2. which has a prominent place for Japan as Australia's second top trading partner.]

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine
Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to
partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.9 The Government will increase the number of multinational exercises the
ADF participates in across our immediate region and the broader IndoPacific,
working closely with the United States, Japan and other regional
countries and international partners.

5.17 The Government’s highest priority will continue to be our alliance
with the United States. We will look to mature and deepen practical
engagement with partners across the Indo-Pacific, particularly Indonesia,
Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, India and China. We will also maintain
global partnerships including with NATO...

5.28 The United States Force Posture Initiatives will also provide
opportunities for broader collaboration between the United States,
Australia and partners in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime
security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States
and Japan.

5.59 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced military forces
and an increasingly active approach to regional security. Australia and
Japan have a deep and broad relationship. We share democratic values,
have been close economic partners for decades and more recently we
have become close strategic partners. We each have alliances with the
United States and we have common strategic interests in secure and
free-flowing trade routes, a stable Indo-Pacific region and a rules-based
global order. We welcome the Japanese Government’s recent decision
to adopt policies that will enable it to contribute more directly to
regional and global security and stability.

5.60 Australia has a growing security relationship with Japan. In recent
years we have signed treaty-level agreements on cooperation in
defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics
support. These agreements provide the basis for further developing our
defence cooperation based on the 2007 Joint Declaration on Security
Cooperation.

5.61 Australia and Japan are implementing a broad range of initiatives to
further enhance practical defence cooperation. These initiatives will
strengthen defence cooperation in a number of areas including: increased
training and exercises between all three Services, increased personnel
exchanges, deepening cooperation on humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief, maritime security, peacekeeping, capacity building
and increasing trilateral cooperation with our common ally the United
States. We will enhance strategic dialogue between Australia and Japan,
which includes joint Defence and Foreign Affairs 2+2 dialogue held
at Ministerial level, as well as senior officials’ level dialogue. We will
continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in
areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like the Joint
Strike Fighter, air and missile defence and maritime warfare technologies.

5.62 To underpin our growing cooperation, we will work towards an
agreement with Japan that improves our administrative, policy, and legal
procedures to facilitate joint operations and exercises.

5.63 We will continue to expand trilateral defence cooperation between
Australia, Japan, and the United States for our mutual benefit.

5.67 Our strong defence relationship is underpinned by a mutual interest
in working together with the United States and Japan to contribute
to security in North Asia and shared concern about the threat posed
by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear and ballistic
missile programs.

OTHER KEYWORD MENTIONS WERE

Indo-Pacific 68

Asia 85

Pacific 137
ANZUS (only) 7
NATO 13

Europe 2

COMMENT

If Australia is not putting any weight on intergovernmental relations in the CEP then the keyword search frequency approach to the DWP may be irrelevant.

Nevertheless, looking at the results:

Germany gets honourable mention as one of the P5 + 1 nations on Iran nuclear; is a CEP participant and is/has been a fellow venturer with Australia in the Middle East and Afghanistan in the War on Terror.

France, usually grouped with other regional nations, cooperates with Australia on maritime security especially regional humanitarian/disaster relief and is in CEP. We jointly work together on global security including counter-terrorism and piracy. I've studied South Pacific international relations and history over the years but never encountered the "FRANZ Arrangement".

Japan is way ahead on mentions and column inches. Australia's current and future relationship with Japan appears very close. This is on the alliance, common opponents, importance of North Asia, officer exchanges, 2 + 2, second top trade partner, in CEP, Japan being more active in regional order, treaty-level agreements on cooperation in defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics support.

Paragraph 5.61 summarises the growing Australia - Japan relationship well. Rather revealing on the CEP may be the final sentence of 5.61 "We will continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like...maritime warfare technologies."

So even if Japan were not the CEP winner there is what amounts to a close alliance relationship with Australia to console Japan.

Just for interest. Here's some reporting on the Defence White Paper from Channel 9 News in the shipbuilding hotspot of Osbourne, Adelaide, South Australia. Specific mentions of submarines right at the beginning and 1 minute 45 seconds onwards.
---

14 comments:

Anonymous
said...

As I mentioned before, a lot of talk and not much to show for when it comes to Japan-Oz cooperation.

Show me the bilateral training exercises.Show me Japanese patrols in the South China Sea.Show me the JMSDF training Asian allies in vital areas like ASW.Show me JMSDF humanitarian support in the South Pacific.Show me Japanese action to protect global fish stocks and Australian EEZs from their ravenous domestic demand.

On all those items the Marine Nationale has proved to be a more useful partner for years. But not to worry, Japan will live up to its strategic partner status... one day.

Yes France has a headstart since https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Antoine_de_Bougainville but with China's island building and North Korea's missile rattling Japan will probably move on all those tasks rather quickly.

Re https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Aid-Prog-docs/Franz-Arrangement-Brochure.pdf . It may be that New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade does not have the resources to make the FRANZ Arrangement well known. For a small donation Submarine Matters could write a promotion article :)

http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-australia-should-go-with-germany-for-its-future-submarine-project/ presents a case for German strategic affinity with Australia but it seems to lack substance.

Re Re https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/Aid-Prog-docs/Franz-Arrangement-Brochure.pdf . It may be that New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade does not have the resources to make the FRANZ Arrangement well known. For a small donation Submarine Matters could write a promotion article :)

At least they wrote something that according to you own post http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/search?updated-max=2016-03-04T16:10:00%2B11:00&max-results=4 you had not yet encountered.

Re http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-australia-should-go-with-germany-for-its-future-submarine-project/ presents a case for German strategic affinity with Australia but it seems to lack substance.

Are you seriously arguing that Germany shares sensitive defence designs with China? Until now, I thought this blog is serious, but this is indeed as far away as the Chinese microchips installed in your own mobile, ready to be activated on the day of dawn... In this respect, it would be worthwhile questioning where China gets the resources from to build up their military capabilities? I did not think that this blog follows myths and doomsday theories.But it gets better...

Re China (as a much more valuable current/future export customer for Germany) may get better diesels and AIP from Germany than Australia would get.

See all over this December 20, 2013 article http://in.reuters.com/article/breakout-submarines-special-report-pix-g-idINL4N0JJ0FM20131219 about China benefitting from European designs for Chinese military use. That article says:

Article continues:"Most of China's advanced surface warships are powered by German and French-designed diesel engines."

"Song and Yuan-class boats. The beating hearts of these subs are state-of-the-art diesel engines designed by MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH of Friedrichshafen, Germany. Alongside 12 advanced Kilo-class submarines imported from Russia, these 21 German-powered boats are the workhorses of China's modern conventional submarine force"

"Arms trade data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to the end of 2012 shows that 56 MTU-designed diesels for submarines have been supplied to the Chinese navy.

"They are the world's leading submarine diesel engines," says veteran engineer Hans Ohff, former managing director of the Australian Submarine Corporation, the company that built Australia's Collins-class conventional submarines.

MTU declined to answer questions about transfers to the Chinese navy, future deliveries or whether it supplies technical support or servicing. "All MTU exports strictly follow German export laws," a company spokesman said."

"Transfers of European technology to the Chinese military are documented in SIPRI data, official EU arms trade figures and technical specifications reported in Chinese military publications."

China now has the world's second-largest defense budget after the United States and the fastest growing military market. Many of Europe's biggest defense contractors have been unable to resist its allure. High-performance diesels from MTU and French engine maker Pielstick also drive many of China's most advanced surface warships and support vessels, SIPRI data shows. Pielstick was jointly owned by MTU and German multinational Man Diesel & Turbo until 2006, when Man took full control."

"...Europe's embargo, however, has been far more loosely interpreted and enforced. Thus weapons and, perhaps more importantly for the PLA, dual-use technology have steadily flowed from America's European allies to China."

"...The value of German export licenses for weapons was a relatively modest 32 million euros in the decade to 2011. However, EU arms trade figures don't include dual-use technology that in many cases can be sold without licenses."

"Critics of the EU's arms trade with China say member states have failed to devise a system to enforce the embargo. They say this reflects the loose structure of the EU, where each member state interprets the restrictions differently according to domestic law, regulations and trade policies.

Geography plays a role, too: The distance between Europe and Asia means there is ambivalence about the rapid growth of Chinese military power. From Europe, China looks like an opportunity, not a threat."

"...In the meantime, Europe has discovered a lucrative trade selling components, particularly if they incorporate dual-use technologies that fall outside the embargo.

"Under Beijing's long-term policies to promote innovation, domestic arms makers are encouraged to import the foreign technology that China lacks. The challenge is to adapt this range of components and know-how into locally built weapons.

One example is how German engine makers have contributed technology to support China's expanding fleet of support vessels that monitor satellites and missiles."

"MTU is a unit of Germany's Tognum Group, which is jointly owned by UK-based multinational Rolls Royce Group PLC and Germany's Daimler AG. Contracts with the PLA and powerful defense manufacturers give MTU and its parent influence in competing for contracts in China's massive civilian market. "

"...China's biggest arms maker, China North Industries Group Corporation, or Norinco, has been making MTU engines under license since 1986.

In 2010, Tognum opened a joint venture with Norinco to assemble large, high speed MTU diesel engines and emergency generators at a plant in the city of Datong in Shanxi Province. A major goal of the joint venture is to win orders for emergency backup generators for China's expanding roster of nuclear power plants, Tognum said in a press statement. MTU engines are also built under license at the Shaanxi Diesel Engine Heavy Industry Co Ltd, a subsidiary of one of China's two sprawling military and commercial shipbuilders.

Submarine diesel technology is hardly new, but these engines are built to exacting standards to ensure reliability under extreme conditions. MTU has been building them for more than 50 years. The engine delivered to China for the Song and Yuan classes, the MTU 396 SE84 series, is one of the world's most widely used submarine power plants. Each of the Chinese submarines has three MTU diesels, according to technical specifications listed in Chinese military affairs journals and websites.

China's military is reluctant to acknowledge the role of foreign technology in its latest weapons, preferring to recognize the performance of its domestic designers and arms makers. But articles in maritime magazines and naval websites have credited the close relationship between MTU and China's domestic industry for providing the Song class with "the world's most advanced submarine power system."

In its promotional brochures, MTU says almost 250 of these engines in service with submarines around the world have racked up over 310,000 hours in operation. Some have also been fitted to nuclear submarines as back-up power plants, the company says. MTU also sells different versions of the 396 series for use in locomotives, power generation and mining.

A spokesman for the Federal Office for Economics and Export Control (BAFA), the German authority that has to approve dual-use exports, said exports of diesel engines built especially for military use would be illegal. Engines that can be used for both civilian and military purposes would have to be approved by BAFA, he said - and in the case of China, such dual-use engines "would probably not be approvable." He declined to comment specifically, however, about the MTU diesel engine sales to China's navy."

- China Yuchai International and Rolls-Royce Power Systems to form joint venture in China- Production of MTU Series 4000 engines to start in 2017 in Yulin, China- Capacity for up to 1,500 engines a year with components produced in Germany and China

FRIEDRICHSHAFEN, Germany and SINGAPORE, Feb. 19, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH ("MTU"), a subsidiary of Rolls-Royce Power Systems, and China Yuchai International Limited's main operating subsidiary, Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Ltd. ("GYMCL"), have today signed an agreement to set up a 50/50 joint venture for the production, under licence from MTU, of MTU diesel engines in China. Each party will invest 75 million RMB (around 10.5 million Euro) in the joint venture.

The joint venture will be based at GYMCL's primary manufacturing facilities in Yulin City in Guangxi Province, south China and is expected to begin production in 2017. The joint venture will produce MTU Series 4000 diesel engines compliant with China Tier 3 emission standards with power outputs ranging from 1400 to 3490 kW, primarily for the Chinese off-highway market, in particular for power generation and oil & gas applications.

The joint venture will open up new growth opportunities for both partners, particularly in China and Asia. The joint venture will enable better access to the Chinese market for the MTU Series 4000 diesel engines, via the extensive sales and service network operated by GYMCL. GYMCL will, as a result of the joint venture, be able to offer its customers technologically advanced engines that have a proven record on the global market. The joint venture engines will be marketed by GYMCL and MTU Suzhou within China and by MTU and its subsidiaries exclusively outside China...

About China Yuchai InternationalChina Yuchai International Limited, through its subsidiary, Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Limited ("GYMCL"), engages in the manufacture, assembly, and sale of a wide variety of light-, medium- and heavy-duty engines for trucks, buses, passenger vehicles, construction equipment, marine and agriculture applications in China...For more information, please visit http://www.cyilimited.com.

About Rolls-Royce Holdings plc

Rolls-Royce's vision is to be the market-leader in high performance power systems where our engineering expertise, global reach and deep industry knowledge deliver outstanding customer relationships and solutions. We operate across five businesses: Civil Aerospace, Defence Aerospace, Marine, Nuclear and Power Systems.

Rolls-Royce Power Systems is headquartered in Friedrichshafen in southern Germany and employs around 10,000 people. The product portfolio includes MTU-brand high-speed engines and propulsion systems for ships,...and defence vehicles and for the oil and gas industry. Rolls-Royce has customers in more than 120 countries, comprising more than 400 airlines and leasing customers, 160 armed forces, 4,000 marine customers including 70 navies, and more than 5,000 power and nuclear customers. SOURCE China Yuchai International Limited"

Submarine Matters

Director, Submarine Matters International. I analyse international trends, technical and political - mainly on submarines, sometimes on surface ships, aircraft and missiles. This website started in 2007. I have a Masters Degree (International Relations) High Distinction average. The best way to navigate this site is to put a keyword in the search box top left corner.