On Thursday, September 30, 1999, according to a BBC article published
at 22:40 UTC, a major nuclear accident released large quantities of
radioactive materials at a processing plant in Japan, causing some
injuries at the plant, and evacuations of the surrounding area. A GCP
prediction of high effect was made for the time surrounding the actual
event. The leak was detected at 10:35 local time (0135 UTC).
The prediction was for the period from 10 to 11 (0100 to 0200 UTC),
with 15-minute blocking. The data had a modest deviation, with
corresponding probability of 0.137. The figure shows a weak, steady
trend for the actual time, compared with relatively flat data taken
during a control period the previous day.