Greetings from Saddle River where, as far as I'm concerned, the last days of November are supposed to be about 60 degrees and balmy. I'm cranking some topical Killers and slowly gearing up for The Biggest Friday Ever (an MiM day and night surrounding a NJ taping of Fast Money) by running my mouth and doing some trading. In more specific, bullet pointed, news...

* I don't want anyone actually doing what I say OR what I do but, for what it's worth, I walked my talk and bought some Nordstrom (JWN) just moments ago. My timing stank as a day trade but the $2 drop seemed so wrong that I didn't mind missing a little of it. Pepe's pointing to the bullish PnF put me over the top on the long side.

* By "put me over the top" in the above bullet I mean "If I blather in public about this and then miss it the way I missed the last 5% downside in Gap (GPS) I'm going to hurt myself." As it turns out, they don't take "I told you so" as payment at the local division of SuperValu (SVU) where I buy groceries.

* In a more just world, "If woulda's and shoulda's were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas" would be leading the Fast Money Catch Phrase Contest instead of "I got puts on that fool." The producers are watching, Minyans; don't miss your chance to write the next great television buzz-phrase (actual Street value equals Zero).

See the trade-weighted dollar here... We won't get the actual data on today's movement in the trade-weighted dollar until after the close tonight, but based on the large moves that most of the foreign currencies are making vs. the dollar today and a new low being just 0.33 pts away, it's a good bet that we'll have a new multiyear low in the trade-weighted dollar as of today's close. Given that the trade-weighted dollar is trade-weighted, it is a more important barometer of US peso's health than the euro-heavy US dollar index in my view.

From a longer-term perspective, you can see from the monthly chart here (which I have annotated to include this month's data) that we're nearing the 200-month moving average as well (just 3 points away). A breach of that moving average hasn't been seen since the 1970s. And if I recall correctly, that was a period that saw just a tiny bit of inflation too (yes, I am grinning when I say that). After all, a collapsing currency tends to be inflationary by definition. The wrinkle this time is that the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, meaning that it backs up all other fiat currencies (AKA: confetti) of the world and gives them "value." As a result, we're also seeing inflation accelerate in all currencies, not just the dollar (although dollar-holders are obviously seeing even more debasement). At what point does self-interest force the overseers of these other currencies to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to fight that inflation? That's where things get really interesting.

History never repeats, but it does often rhyme...From the Theoretical to the Actual - Scott Reamer - 11:43 AM

The dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) has reached two important bearish extremes this week:

(1) It closed more than 3 standard deviations below its 20 period moving average which it has done 10 times since 1990 and every time has achieved an intermediate degree or greater bottom within 1-2 weeks, and... (2) It has reached a three year extreme in bearish sentiment.

The probabilities that the dollar is staging an important large degree bottom are good and it's an even better call that dollar downside is limited while upside is far more significant. So my view is the dollar is going up in short order not down.

Meanwhile, bonds have been rallying - in the face of almost all other "incontrovertible' evidence that they shouldn't. The economy is weakening, inflation is turning into disinflation, one of the largest cyclical components of the economy - at $20 trillion +/- is housing and that's deflating and is nowhere close to finished, and corporate capex plans are coming down as fast as they did in 2000. Add onto that the size of the credit bubble and the decreasing ability to service that debt and you have ALL of the ingredients of deflation and its ALREADY happening - it's not theoretical. What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:11 AM

Costco (COST) Sales Up 9% to $4.84 Billion - Costco same-store revenue in November rose 4% in the U.S. and 10% internationally and comparable-store sales for the 13 weeks through Nov. 26 rose 4% while total sales reached $14.99 billion, an increase of 8%.

Pier 1 (PIR) Sales Fall Off Pier! November sales down an astonishing 15.3 percent at its stores open at least a year as aggressive advertising and discounts failed to attract more shoppers. Who knew wicker would ever go out of fashion?

Oil Nears $63, a 2-Month High – Crude is up $0.15 to $62.60 on news that is joining OPEC and an unexpected drop in US winter fuel stocks. The bullish GDP also convinced traders that the economy's growth phase is far from over.

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