Support Is Thin for Tea Party, but It Retains Its Muscle

An upstart challenger wrestles a Republican primary victory from the House majority leader Eric Cantor. Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi faces a vigorous challenge for his seat in a runoff election Tuesday. The pressure on established candidates has many people asking: Is the Tea Party having another moment?

A new poll by the New York Times and CBS News helps to shed some light on the group’s influence in this year’s primaries and general election. It found that what supporters of the Tea Party might lack in broad popularity they make up for in engagement in the midterm elections.

Only 21 percent of Americans now say they support the Tea Party movement. Support for the Tea Party has risen as high as 31 percent since The Times and CBS News first began asking about it four years ago. Support has hovered between 20 and 25 percent over the last year and a half.

Even enthusiasm among Republicans for the Tea Party has been on the wane of late. Just 36 percent of Republicans currently identify as Tea Party supporters. As recently as last September, 51 percent of Republicans considered themselves supporters of the Tea Party. Republicans’ highest affinity for the Tea Party came in July 2010, when 55 percent said they supported the movement in a CBS News poll.

But public support isn’t what gives the Tea Party its influence. “The Tea Party isn’t about popularity; it’s about leverage,” said Theda Skocpol, a professor of government and sociology at Harvard. “And while they’re not popular, they’ve still got a lot of leverage because they participate. They are good citizens who are paying attention. They are revved up. They turn out to vote.”

Interest in the 2014 election runs high among Tea Party supporters, according to the Times/CBS poll. Eighty-one percent of voters who support the Tea Party say they will definitely vote in the 2014 election, compared with 67 percent of voters who don’t support the Tea Party.

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Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party favorite, at a campaign event in Biloxi, Miss., on Sunday.CreditTim Isbell/SUN HERALD, via Associated Press

Among Tea Party voters who identify as Republican and independents who lean Republican, 41 percent said they had been paying “a lot” of attention to the 2014 election, compared with 25 percent of non-Tea Party Republican-leaning voters. And these Republican Tea Party voters are 15 points more likely to say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting in this November’s elections for Congress than non-Tea Party Republican voters.

“The Tea Party is bringing some excitement back to the party,” Kris Sealey, one of those polled, said in a follow-up interview. An independent from Atlanta who leans Republican, Ms. Sealey said the Tea Party was “focused more on the grass-roots issues that the establishment, big Republican Party has lost sight of, like smaller government and decreased spending.”

She said that when Republicans get to Washington, “They forget who put them there,” adding, “These Tea Party candidates are coming up with ways to cut spending and not just increasing spending and always caving in to the Democrats.”

Those leaning Republican but who don’t back the Tea Party movement are divided over the Tea Party’s effect on the G.O.P. Nearly a third say the group has too much influence, and about the same number say it has the right amount of influence. Not surprisingly, 60 percent of Republican-leaning Tea Party supporters say their faction has too little power within the Republican Party.

Bill Moore, 66, of Grass Valley, Calif., describes himself as a libertarian who leans Republican. He says the Tea Party does not have enough influence on the Republican Party. “I really believe that the Republicans have a chance to take back the Senate, but I still fear that too many have of them have been there too long,” he said. “They don’t want to change things; they’re part of the establishment. It’s very frustrating to watch this massive spending. The Democrats are talking about the future of the country, but my grandchildren are going to be broke.”

Over all, 47 percent of Republicans say that Tea Party candidates’ attempt to unseat Republicans in Congress is a good thing for the Republican Party, while 35 percent say it is a bad thing. Tea Party supporters who lean Republican are clearly in favor of these newcomers taking on establishment candidates: 77 percent say it is a good thing.

Ms. Skocpol, the scholar, says that Tea Party members are rather sophisticated about the political process, and know that they don’t have to necessarily win every election: “It’s a pincer movement to keep the Republicans from compromising with Democrats or President Obama. They’re not quitters, and really believe the country has been taken from them. If they have an occasional victory, like the Cantor upset, they can force the Republican party to pay attention.”

The national poll was conducted June 20 to 22 by landline and cellphone among 1,009 adults with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 6 percentage points among Republicans and 5 percentage points among those who lean Republican.