Are more adults enriching their lives by learning these days, or fewer? The latest figures on the subject, published in Adult Learners' Week, have prompted an argument between the government and the adult learning quango that commissions the annual survey.

Compared with last year there is a rise - albeit of just one percentage point - in the total proportion of people declaring that they are taking part in some sort of learning, or who have done so in the last three years. Last year this total was 38% of the adult population; this year it is 39%.

It's not much, but it may have brought a smile to the face of ministers who have been under attack for months over the balance of investment in informal education for the over-19s.

But, according to Niace (National Institute for Adult and Continuing Education), which commissions the surveys, the rise is "not enough to be statistically significant, but at least staunching the decline seen year on year from 2006 to 2008".

A more impressive picture, from the ministerial point of view, is presented by the numbers of those over 19 collecting formal qualifications. Over the last year, 320,600 adults gained a first, full level 2 qualification (five GCSEs at grade A*-C, or equivalent), nearly a 37% rise on 2006-07. Another rise, of 17%, has been notched up in the number gaining a full level 3 qualification (two A-levels or equivalent) to 134,500.

There has been a 3% dip in the number - 545,700 - gaining basic literacy and numeracy qualifications on the Skills for Life programme.

Impressive

The Niace introduction to the survey nevertheless gives credit to an "impressive" achievement.

"Taking our overall participation figures alongside the impressive rise in the numbers of adults securing qualifications, ministers will be quick to claim that their policies are working, with public funding focused on those seeking qualifications and individuals investing in the bulk of other learning opportunities."

Having paid due tribute to the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (Dius), Niace reveals what it really thinks. A broad hint is in the title it has given to this year's production: Narrowing Participation.

According to Niace, the survey tells a depressing story that can be summed up in one sentence. The number of adults actually doing any learning at the time of asking - as opposed to at any time over the last three years - has dropped to its lowest since Labour came to power.

In 2009, 18% of adults report that they are doing some sort of learning. And for the purposes of the survey, learning is given a pretty loose definition. Respondents are told it "can mean practising, studying or reading about something. It can also mean being taught, instructed or coached. Learning can also be called education or training. You can do it regularly (each day or month) or you can do it for a short period of time. It can be full-time, or part-time, done at home, at work, or in another place like a college. Learning does not have to lead to a qualification. We are interested in any learning you have done, whether or not it was finished."

Last year, 20% of adults replied that they were learning, according to this definition. In 2002, the figure was 23%, as it was in 1996, the year before Tony Blair became prime minister. That is not the only depressing feature of this year's survey, says Niace. The pattern of participation is changing. The "educational haves" are holding on to learning opportunities while the number of people who have benefited least from education and are now learning is markedly dwindling.

The highest socio-economic groups - the ABC1s - are at least twice as likely to be learning as the poorest - the DEs. Roughly a quarter of the former are currently learning, compared with 11% of the latter.

If the last three years are put in the pot, 53% of the ABs tick the yes box compared with 24% of DEs. That DE figure is a 10-year low.

There is an age pattern as well as a socio-economic one. The older you are, the less likely you are to be doing any learning. Of the 20-24 age group, 61% say they are learning now or have been recently. For the 55-64s, that statistic is 31%, and for the 65-74s, it is 18%.

People who continue their initial learning until they are 21 or older are more than twice as likely to take it up again later as those who left at the first opportunity.

For Alan Tuckett, Niace's director, these are sobering findings for a government that has invested 52% more in real terms in post-compulsory education and training since 1997. He says the overall situation in adult learning has strong echoes of another controversy.

"It has got a direct parallel with the old debate about grammar schools," he says. "A small number of working-class kids benefited, but the price was paid by the majority, who learned early that education and training weren't for them."

In its early years, the Labour government achieved widening participation in learning. But after impressive gains in the first five years, there has been a marked decline since it launched its skills strategies in 2003, which have latterly - with Train to Gain - been focused on people in work, Tuckett says. Though these have brought real gains to some of the least skilled, the figures are relatively modest.

Who pays the price?

"When you take the numbers overall, the question that is vivid for government is: how do you deal with the many as well as the few? You can concentrate your money to make a difference for people at work, but who's paying the price? You can concentrate your money on people with the lowest levels of skill, but that's bought at the expense of other people from exactly the same group."

Policies that serve both groups of people are needed, Tuckett says. "We should support people to get qualifications and we need affordable opportunities for people to join in. The risk to government is that if it concentrates all its money on supporting people in the workplace, it will never get employers to invest more."

There was a blunt rejoinder to all this from Dius. "We utterly reject Niace's suggestion that we abandon our skills strategy just a day after the UK Commission for Employment and Skills has underlined the importance of investing in skills if we are to become a world-class economy by 2020," a spokesperson said.

"The Niace approach would undermine the future prospects for people from all walks of life. The results from Niace surveys have been fairly volatile over the years, and not too much reliance should be put on a single year's results."

The department's National Adult Learner Survey, last conducted in 2005, showed a substantially higher level of people participating in learning, and an increase in participation among those from lower socio-economic groups, the spokesperson said.