This betting system is based on the assumption that if Bet A wins more than Bet B, then Bet A is less likely to win again and bet B is more likely to win. In practice the system has you decreasing your bet by one unit following a win (since it is less likely to win again) and increasing your bet by one unit following a loss (since you are more likely to win).

Some hucksters even have the gall to base this system on the “Law of Equilibrium”. The problem, however, is that the little ole wheel doesn’t know it’s suppose to balance things out. The wheel has no memory and it doesn’t know or even care whether the last spin was red or black, odd or even, or high or low. The chance of hitting red for example on any spin is 18 over 38 or 47% regardless whether the previous 5, 10 or even thousand spins were red. To put it simple, the results of previous spins have no effect whatsoever on the likely outcome of the next spin. The wheel, the ball, and the numbers have no memory whatsoever and every spin is an independent, random event. Period.

When everything is said and done, the d’Alembert like it’s cousins the Martingale and Laboucher will give you a fair number of winning sessions where you win a small amount of money and a few sessions where you will lose a lot more money. Over the long run it will not alter the casino’s 5.26% edge.

“No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.” — Albert Einstein

Not only do bettings systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.

In the many years that run this site I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.

Gambler’s Fallacy

The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler’s fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell “guaranteed” get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler’s fallacy. None of them work. If you don’t believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:

A common gamblers’ fallacy called “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of “systems” have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under “gambling”)

No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise… — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley

The number of ‘guaranteed’ betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein

Vegas Click also has a good expose of the gambler’s fallacy.

The Martingale

Every week I receive two or three emails asking me about the betting system by which a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is generally played with an even money game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don’t pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit. For example if a player starts at $1 and loses four bets in a row, winning on the fifth, he will have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and won $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were covered and he had a profit of $1. The problem is that it is easier than you think to lose several bets in a row and run out of betting money after you’ve doubled it all away.

Germany and France will meet on Friday at the Maracana to open the quarter final fixtures.

Both nations have started off the tournament well, but while France’s form continued to improve, Germany’s faltered a bit.

Having started the World Cup with an impressive 4:0 thrashing of Portugal, Die Mannschaft struggled against Ghana and the U.S., but still managed to top their group. The Germans did not expect to face any major challenges against Algeria in the round of 16 last week, but the North Africans proved a hard side to beat and forced Jogi Loew’s men into 120 minutes of sweat, before finally succumbing to Andre Schurlle and Mesut Ozil goals in extra time.

France dominated their clash with Nigeria in the first round of the knockout stages, and managed to overcome the tough Super Eagles backline featuring one of the tournament’s best goalkeepers, Vincent Enyema, through late goals by Paul Pogba and Josef Yobo (own goal). Didier Deschamps’ men look more and more like a cohesive unit, and their 10 goals in the tournament thus far, equal their previous tally from their last three World Cups combined.

Bottom line: It may be the French who look the better side currently, but should the Germans return to their earlier form, they should be able to overcome this hurdle as well.

Prediction: France 1 – Germany 2

Some essential facts and stats to help with online betting:

Germany have beaten France only once in six meetings since the reunification, while France defeated them four times (1 draw).

France have only one defeat in their last 15 matches.

France’s 10 goals in this World Cup, equals their previous tally from their last 3 World Cups combined (13 games, 10 goals).

In 83 years, France and Germany have only played 3 competitive matches (WC ’58, ’82, ’86)

Germany have reached the World Cup quarterfinals for a record 16th time.

Karim Benzema has scored 9 goals in his last 9 international appearances for France.

Both Germany and the USA are coming off draws in their last group matches, and both are in good shape to advance.

The fact that the Americans are in good shape here is great news for fans but is a little disconcerting to sportsbooks who have booked a ton of World Cup futures action on them.

A win by either team will propel that team to the round of 16 as Group G’s top seed. A draw will send both teams through. Even a loss by either team could see the loser advance depending on the result of the Portugal vs. Ghana match. Both have a significant goal differential to make up.

The Germans are the big betting favorite in the match, but the USA looked great in the Portugal match and come into this one with confidence.

Sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark have been taking tons of betting volume on the Americans so far and have them as steep underdogs on World Cup odds posted for this match, with Germany at 2-3, the USA in the area of 9-1 and a draw line of 2-1.

The biggest question for the Americans is whether they can keep up with the German midfield, which may be the best in the tournament. Michael Bradley and company must disrupt Germany from dominating the time of possession.

Thomas Muller leads a solid German attack (and is favored to be the first goalscorer in Thursday’s match), and he has help with Miroslav Klose and Mesut Ozil. Keeper Tim Howard and the American defense have their work cut out for them.

Jozy Altidore is out again with a hamstring injury, but his replacement, Graham Zusi, has been solid, and he had an assist in the draw against Portugal.

The U.S. have played much better when they have not been in the lead, as they do not pack the defensive side of the pitch and play a more open game. However, the draw helps them, so they may play a conservative match by not pushing forward much with exception of the counter-attack.

Clint Dempsey has been playing well and is the main worry up front for the German defense.

The Germans looked much better in their match opener than they did facing Ghana. While they won the time of possession battle (59 percent to 41 percent), they gave up more shots (20-11).

Germany and the USA should both employ a cautious game plan, which increases the odds of a draw—a result that is welcome by both squads. Both would advance to the round of 16 with a draw, and while this World Cup has seen more goals than any other, discretion will be the better part of valor in this one.

El Clasico returns to the Final Four for the second consecutive season, as Real Madrid takes on archrival FC Barcelona in the second Turkish Airlines Euroleague semifinal at Mediolanum Forum in Milan, Italy, on Friday. Madrid and Barcelona have faced each other more than 200 times over more than seven decades, but this will be just their third matchup in a Final Four environment. It is the 20th matchup between the teams in European competitions; Barcelona leads the all-time series 12-7. It is also the sixth showdown between both teams this season; Madrid is 4-1 against Barcelona in 2013-14. However, none of their showdowns this season will be more important than this. Kostas Papanikolaou, one of the four Euroleague Rising Star award winners in this game, of Barcelona can win his third consecutive Euroleague title – something can only Sarunas Jasikevicius has done since 1991. Barcelona leads the Euroleague in two-point shooting accuracy (57.1%) this season. Coach Xavi Pascual has used 12 different players in his starting lineup this season. Marcelinho Huertas is the only player that has started every Euroleague game. Ante Tomic has been the Turkish Airlines Euroleague’s best performer this season on a per-minute basis with a prorated average of a 28.5 performance index rating per 40 minutes of action.

Felipe Reyes scored 17 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in 19 minutes off the bench to lead Real Madrid over Barcelona 67-74 in the Euroleague Final Four semifinals last season in London. Real Madrid had the Turkish Airlines best offense this season. The club led the league in scoring (85.2 ppg.), performance index rating (104.9 per game), free throw shooting (80.2%) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.74 assists per turnover) and ranked second in three-point accuracy (39.7%).

No matter the sport, when these two get together, there is tension, drama and excitement. Even in basketball, these teams carry the hopes and expectations of their people, bringing the Spanish cities of Madrid and Barcelona together in conflict yet again. In the semi-final of the Euroleague Final Four, there is a lot at stake when these sides clash.

In a unique twist running in line with the Barcelona football and basketball team, the Real Madrid basketball team is looking for success in Europe after many barren years. Real Madrid were the dominant team in European basketball in the mid-60s, triumphing in the Euroleague in 1964, 1965, 1967 and 1968. Further success followed in 1974, 1978 and 1980. However, the only win in the Final Four era for the men from Madrid came in 1995, which means that it has been an awful long time since the Whites tasted European glory. With the football team facing off against Athletic Madrid in Lisbon on the 24th of May, success in the semi-final and then the final on the 18th of May could ensure that there is a summer worth’s of European celebrations in the Spanish capital.

Of the last 5 performances between the Spanish giants, Real Madrid has triumphed in four of the last five. However, you should note that Barcelona triumphed in the last match between the two and they are the outsiders for the bookmakers for the semi-final clash. Bwin have Real Madrid at 1.62 to win through to the final and you will receive odds of 2.25 for the men from Catalonia to beat their capital city counterparts. Bet365 provide odds along similar lines but you’ll find that they have Real Madrid prices at 1.60 while Barcelona are priced up at 2.40 for the win. If you believe that the semi-finals will throw up an upset or two, the Bet365 site is the one with the more attractive odds so be smart if you are placing bets for the semi-final matches.

Bwin is pricing the total points scored bet at 154.5 with odds of 1.87 for the over/under bets. For the over/under bets of 154.5 points on Bet365, you will find odds of 2.03 for 155 or more points to be scored and odds of 1.70 for 154 or fewer points to be scored.

Last NBA season I decided to bet on the winning margin of the points by which a team wins the match. For each team the betting houses offer several possibilities for a margin between the winning team and its opponent, so the punter must choose the correct one.

My idea was to do it based on the pure statistics. The principle is very simple. I made an excel sheet where I wrote the match, the odds for both teams and the margin by which the winner won. When I accumulated a sufficient number of matches with their odds and winning margin I got a betting database by which I searched for value bet with one percent of my bankroll.

At first glance this betting system looked very promising as I had bets with odds of 40 and even higher. However, it was promising only at the beginning. On my first 100 bet only two or three were winnings as it led to almost completely emptying my bank.

At least ten times the success eluded in the final seconds. Often the difference between my bet and what was actually the winning margin was only one point higher or lower.

This unexpected loss did not get me discouraged. I’ll try again with this betting system next season, this time with some changes. Playing with high odds of about 20, 30 or even 40 requires a little more insight into the details. For example, when you have a winning margin with odds of 40 it gives you a fake value in the next at least 39 attempts, which distorts the actual results.

So I decided for the next year to bet only on margins that have already at least 5 winnings and bearing value. This will guarantee me that I will not have a loss when only an occasional success changes significantly the value due to its high rate.

I am convinced that there is value in betting on winning margin of NBA games and it only needs to a more detailed study with a larger database to give more accurate results.

The money management is essential when it comes to betting on sports events. Proper distribution of the bets is with huge importance to whether you will be successful or not in betting. Apart from that, the work with your bank requires discipline, which is also of great importance.

The betting money management systems are many and various.

The so called flat betting is the most popular. With it you always bet a percentage of your original bank. So if you decide to play with 3% of your bankroll you don’t change it until you get the needed profit or you lose your entire bank. In this system, regardless if you win or lose you always bet the same amount. Sounds easy, at first glance, but it is not and requires extreme discipline.

It is very difficult to keep betting in the same way, seeing for example how you lose almost every bet when you are into a losing streak. Also it is very difficult not to be tempted to bet more as you see you are in a good run and win almost in all games.

If discipline is not your strongest feature, then the system which is for you is to allocate bets to the bank. In this betting money management system you always bet a percentage of your current bank. So when you are in a good run you bet more. When you are in a bad streak you bet less. This system is suitable if you are not sure of your betting system or if you are too worried about losing money.

Another system that is also very popular is related to the grading of the stakes. In it you value your bets from 1 to 10. So when you are very sure that you will succeed bet 10 units of the bank. If you think that your bet is very risky but you still want to play it, only bet one unit of the bank. This system gives more freedom because it allows you to play riskier matches and still not to lose big money.

Of course, you can safely choose your own money management system. You can pick any of the above systems and modify it so that it fits you best.

Dynamo Kiev continues its way to the Champions League’s groups and this time the barrier before them is called Borussia Monchengladbach. Dynamo already played with a big European team having won twice against Feyenoord from the Netherlands. However, Borussia haven’t played a single competitive match yet and it will be extremely difficult for them against the Ukrainians.

The championship in Ukraine is now in its seventh round, giving Dynamo a serious advantage as the players from the Ukrainian team for more than a month are in competitive rhythm. The lack of official matches for Borussia is a serious disadvantage, which is difficult to be compensated.

The match against the Germans certainly is on the focus for the Ukrainians who even dared to play not so concentrated in the last match of their championship. They suffered a loss against the weaker team of Vorskla Poltava. With this defeat Dynamo is now three points behind the league leaders Shakhtar from Donetsk who has six wins from six games.

What will happen in this game? It’s really hard to predict mainly because of the lack of information about the class of Borussia Monchengladbach. We can see some weak sides in Dynamo both in the domestic championship and the international scene. However, it should be noted the great spirit which the Ukrainian players showed. In their first match against Feyenoord, they trailed by 0-1 in the 70th minute and only for five minutes managed to score two goals. In the second match the victory came after the late goal in the 90th minute.

In Ukraine, Dynamo plays with some problems and several meetings were won with goals at the end of matches. This suggests some problems with the players, but certainly shows that championship spirit and even luck that is so indicative of the big teams.
That is why I will support Dynamo in this match, although their opponent today is a strong team from Germany and they are guests. My bet is a win for Dynamo on Asian handicap with advantage of 0;+0.5 and odds of 2.