From the above Vox article: “The conventional wisdom is solidifying that Democrats — buoyed by an unpopular President Donald Trump, an energized Democratic base, ample opportunities for pickups, and the historical rule that voters punish the party in the White House — will win the 20 or so seats they need to flip the House and maybe even get the Senate.”

This year is still nuanced, however, as the economy is in objectively good shape and for the most part, people feel positive about the direction the economy is moving in. These things make it challenging for Democrats to build a public opinion case against the administration (the natural strategy for campaigns in any mid-term election).

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