AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

Upbeat economic releases this morning. Persoal income up 0.4% showing real disposable incomes continue to rise as saving rates dropping modestly and debt service as a percentage of income at a 10 year low while liabilities drop relative to assets. Consumer spending rising 0.7% with real consumption indicative of a near 4% rise in q1 2011 spending. Montly core PCE was flat, with a cumulative rise of 0.7% for the full year and at a five-year low. Well below Fed?s intended target of around 2% PCE, indicative that the federal funds rates will likely stay close to zero for the time being and some.

Chicago PMI at 68.8 higher than 65 consensus, consistent with previous reports showing continued strength in the economy and prices.

The Fade weighed on the gap up opening, but stocks held near Friday?s close. No follow through yet. Breath has improved a bit with 2700 advancers for 2400 decliners. Markets are stabilizing as we get closer to noon.

USDX at 77.68 -0.77%. Getting weaker, consistent with players getting back to risk bets. Euro at $1.3704 up 0.70%. FXE at 136,44 up 0.64%. Raise on optimism that European leaders have shown they can stabilize the currency.

DJI at 11,848 gaining 24.53 points up 24.30%

SPX at 1281.92 up 0.43%

NDX at 2272 up 0.10%

RUT at 780.35 up 0.64%

VIX at 19.62 down -2.10%

BKX at 52.93 up 0.99%. XLF at 16.37 up 0.74%. BAC at $13.74 up 1.10%, JPM at $44.79 up 0.61% and C at $4.79 up 1.38%. Financials leading the rebound.
CAT at 96.93 up 1.33%, F lagging at $16.14 down 0.86%. INTC at $21.34 down -0.61% after disclosing problems with a chip error. AMZN at 169.46 down -1.01%, GOOG at $600.28 struggling with breakeaven flat now. XOM at $79.73 up 0.94% after upbeat release. Oil futures up to $90 a barrel.

AAPL at $338.32 gaining $2.20 up 0.65%. Volume at almost 6 million shares traded. Low $334.30 and high $338.70 today. Good showing!

Still some indecisiveness, but shorts are being cornered. Constructive, but still need to watch further.

We did see a major uptick in F1Q11 Mac sales, up 23%. Of course, this wasn’t quite as good as previous quarters but it was a nice increase compared to industry growth of 3%.

Did you mean that we’ll see larger growth than 23% in calendar Q1?

Yes for several reasons. There are millions of Mac owners like myself that bought in 2007 and 2008 when 10.5 came out. The economy took a big hit in 2008 and Mac sales slowed down dramatically from 44% growth in end of 2007 to 9% growth at end of 2008. We have slowly recovered but not back to 35% growth that I would consider normal.

Lion and a revamped iMac, combined with a stronger economy should put us up there around 35% by the end of this year. So we should 5.6 million Mac’s sold.

Add to that better and faster MacBook Airs, and the Halo affect from the Verizon iPHone and iPad kicking in, and add in more China stores, and suddenly 6 million becomes a real possibility. Apple makes its most profit on Macs given the $1300 average price.

By the way I am modeling a 20 p/e for the next 10 years with eps of 100 by 2021. I wish we could go higher but unless Apple starts to show WS what it will do with the cash and iPhone and iPad sales make up 50% of revenue consistently for 5 years straight, I don’t see them giving us a higher PE. Of course if we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price.

WS still think Apple is lucky with the iPod, iPad, and iPhone and its luck will run out. I disagree but I have to go along for the slow ride which I really don’t mind.

... we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price ...

My archived note indicates that AAPL rallied upon announcement of split and fell back to original market cap once split is effected. Can some1 verify this?

Announced the split on Feb 11., 2005. Got an 11% bump in about 4 days and then had approx. 25% correction along with the Dow which went from 11030 to 10,000 and bounced around all year and finally made it back to the 11,000 area. Apple had a nice reversal off those lows of $34 to $86 by Jan 2006.

... we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price ...

My archived note indicates that AAPL rallied upon announcement of split and fell back to original market cap once split is effected. Can some1 verify this?

Announced the split on Feb 11., 2005. Got an 11% bump in about 4 days and then had approx. 25% correction along with the Dow which went from 11030 to 10,000 and bounced around all year and finally made it back to the 11,000 area. Apple had a nice reversal off those lows of $34 to $86 by Jan 2006.

Keep in mind that AAPL increased over 170% within 16 months after it split.

I saw my first galaxy tab in the wild yesterday at a birthday party at a sports bar. The owner was too drunk for me to talk to him much but he is a friend of a friend so at some point I will quiz him about it. He did say he “loves it” and he was carrying it in the back pocket of his jeans. I saw him check email an a lot of sports scores on it. I was shocked when he pulled it out ad it’s the only one I’ve ever seen.

I’ve been wondering for some time if Apple is planning a Super Bowl ad. Hard to believe iPad 2 won’t match or exceed all those specs. I’m hoping Apple doesn’t dick around until April and let all the bottom feeders get a head start.

iPad 1.0 was announced on 1/27/10…

Signature

We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

Later, when Steve Jobs and Mike Murray played the spot for Apple’s board of directors, every single one of them hated it and chairman Mike Markula asked if they could fire the ad agency.

Fortunately, they left the final decision to Jobs and Murray. Jobs recognized that the spot would create huge buzz—he also worried that it would create an “information vacuum” about the Mac, so he ordered a big print campaign to explain how it was different from the green-screen DOS computers that were common at the time.

Signature

We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007