How Montana Agriculture Can Respond to Changing Weather and Climate Patterns

How Montana Agriculture Can Respond to Changing Weather and Climate Patterns

Montanaâ€™s farmers and ranchers are at the frontline of coping with climatic variability
and increasing temperatures. Montanaâ€™s 27,500 farms and ranches manage about 60 million
acres comprising nearly 65% of Montanaâ€™s total area, and contribute $4.2 billion annually
to the Stateâ€™s economy. Todayâ€™s farmers and ranchers are experiencing different climate
conditions than previous generations, and this has prompted discussion about on-going
and future management adjustments.

Over the last 100 years, the average annual temperature in Montana has increased by
2.4 degrees Fahrenheit (F) with three times as many days above 900F (1); yet, since 1950 there has been no statewide trend in changes in precipitation
(29). Expected and already observed risks to crops and livestock production from climate
change include longer, hotter growing seasons with an earlier spring arrival, more
extreme weather events, and altered distribution of seasonal precipitation with more
precipitation in winter, fall, and spring and less in summer (14).

Under predicted climate scenarios, the growing season is expected to expand. A longer
growing season and less harsh winter presents opportunities and challenges, particularly
for market garden farmers.

If moisture is available, an expanded season may enable additional harvests of hay
or the cultivation of alternative crops across Montana.

Earlier springs will allow for earlier seeding of spring-seeded crops.

Longer growing seasons will allow the growing of longer-maturing crops and varieties.

The range of insect pests is expected to expand due to seasonal changes in moisture
and warming temperatures. This could result in higher pest populations, pest growth
rates, overwintering, and movement (9).

Weed management and suppression is going to require new approaches as species like
early-maturing weeds such as cheatgrass and downy brome may become more prevalent
and competitive. Under these conditions, early detection and prevention will be crucial
to managing weeds (10).

To adapt to increased insect pest pressure, researchers are investigating strategies
such as strip-cutting alfalfa during harvest which encourages the emigration of natural
pest enemies to non-harvested sections, planting grasslands or refugia at field margins
to provide habitat for natural enemies, and planting pulse crops in place of summer
fallow to disrupt pest cycles (11,12,13,14).

In Montana, river basins, such as the Gallatin, Judith, and Big Hole, where the total
annual precipitation is more than existing storage capacity to capture spring run-off
and buffer summer precipitation shortages.

One tool being used across Montana watersheds is the Voluntary Water Management Plan
model, which brings together diverse stakeholders to make proactive water allocation
decisions during periods of drought. These plans rely on building local relationships,
accepting enforcement actions that result in shared sacrifice, and strong community
leadership. Voluntary Water Management Plans have been successful in ensuring water
access in the face of shifting climate patterns and increasing demands.

Flexible stocking strategies allow ranchers to more effectively utilize forage, reduce
stress on land, and improve resilience for the future depending on the year's conditions
(15).

Recent improvements in animal productivity, health, and live-weight gain rates allow
producers to make breed or genetic changes for more efficient animals to graze fewer
cattle or have a smaller herd size while still ensuring profitability (16).

Mixed-crop livestock systems are more resilient to climate extremes due to greater
system and income diversity (17,30).

In areas experiencing decreased precipitation and water scarcity, rangeland livestock
production is a more drought-resilient option than a mixed crop-livestock system (17).

Depending on conditions and projections for a given year, producers could manage land
on a gradient of practices ranging from solely crop production to a mixed-crop livestock
system to solely livestock production.

Some ranchers have responded by incorporating both cow-calf pairs and stocker cattle
into their operations, weaning calves earlier, and letting pastures rest periodically
(19).

Livestock producers are evaluating calving and lambing dates to adjust for earlier
springs.

Ultimately, ranchers must evaluate adaptive strategies based on individualized costs
and benefits, the time scale of their operation, and the risk they are willing to
take in implementing those practices (20).

GLOBIOM Global Biosphere Management Model examines the interrelationships of various
components in an agricultural system and enables the livestock producers to adjust
to areas dedicated to different activities grazing, watering, night use, etc. according
to the identification of more or less productive land (21).

Improvements in rangeland monitoring practices, such as recent advances in GPS collars,
remote sensing and aerial imagery for monitoring, can also help ranchers adapt through
increased knowledge of animal behavior trends and changes over time.

Mitigation on Montana's Farms

Agriculture has the potential to play an important role in reducing greenhouse gases
and increasing the storage of carbon in the soil. Mitigation strategies aim to reduce
the severity and prevalence of climate change. Farmers and ranchers could potentially
benefit from mitigation incentives that could provide supplemental on-farm income
in compensation for efforts to reduce emissions and increase soil carbon storage.

Farmers can capture carbon by extending crop rotations and including perennial crops
that capture more carbon below ground and reduce fallow fields (22).

If moisture is available, the inclusion of cover crops as temporary vegetative cover
between agricultural crops can add carbon to soil and may also capture excess plant-available
nitrogen that was not used by the previous crop in the rotation, reducing the release
of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas (23).

No-till or minimal till agriculture has become more common across Montana. These low-tillage
strategies avoid soil carbon losses by reducing soil erosion and retaining crop residues.
There is a scholarly debate about the efficacy of no-till soil management for storing
carbon but regardless this cropland management technique has been found to increase
soil health, reduce soil erosion, reduce on-farm labor, and save fuel otherwise used
to till (24).

Consumer interest in 'Made in Montana' products provides farmers and ranchers the
opportunity to sell products at a higher price point while reducing transportation
costs and transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions.

Some farmers and ranchers are reducing greenhouse gas emissions by choosing more fuel-efficient
farm equipment when updating machinery and vehicles or running machinery on repurposed
cooking oil.

Precision agriculture is an innovative approach that uses machine-mounted crop sensors
with aerial or satellite imagery to provide high-resolution spatial data that enables
farmers to apply fertilizer differentially across a field based on crop nutrient needs,
microclimatic conditions, the cost of the input, and desired yield.

Farmers can improve fertilizer efficiency by using slow-release fertilizer or inhibitors,
shortening the time between fertilizer applications, applying fertilizer directly
to soil, and avoiding excess fertilizer or manure application (23).

Most mitigation strategies in the livestock sector relate to increasing the amount
of carbon stored in rangeland and pasture soils and in woody plants. Opportunities
in Montana decreasing carbon loss and increasing carbon storage are high, since Montana
is comprised of 65% rangeland and pasture (25).

In mixed-crop livestock systems, using livestock manure as fertilizer reduces use
of inorganic fertilizers that contribute greenhouse gas emissions through manufacturing,
distribution, and application.

The appropriate storage or removal of manure slurries, minimization of losses due
to volatilization or runoff, and the covering and compaction of farmyard manure can
reduce greenhouse emissions (16).

Livestock feeding strategies also affect greenhouse gas emission from manure storage,
especially in confined livestock operations. If producers optimize nitrogen content
of their animals' diet through the use of feed additives and improved feed digestibility,
they can reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from animals.

Fewer greenhouse gases are emitted during manure storage and application when livestock
consume fresh forage or hay versus grain or silage (28). Therefore,livestock producers
may practice mitigation by feeding cattle less grain and silage and relying more on
grazing and feeding hay instead.

One recommended practice is to reduce or stop conversion of rangelands into crop production
and re-establish permanent vegetation, thus increasing retention of soil organic carbon
(27).

Livestock producers could partner with crop producers to graze cover crops that provide
nutritious forage late in the growing season after rangeland plants have matured and
lost nutritional value. In return, crop producers benefit when livestock grazing terminates
the cover crop and incorporates organic matter and nutrients into the soil without
tillage or herbicide application.