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I first bought a snomo 11 years ago and had a lot of fun learning to ride it. I went to most of the snomo version of ski areas in WA to learn, and found it striking that the snomo community has a much lower perception of risk in the WA snowpack. They cover way more ground than skiers typically do, often hitting every aspect and elevation within a large area. I came to realize that the skiing community (and NWAC - no surprise there given their mission) often grossly overestimates instability. Granted, if you're wrong, you can die. But, when the perception is way off the reality, it's really not all that valuable. i would assert this is at play in this group analysis. It was fine to put the track in that spot ON THAT DAY, as borne out by the results. There is no evidence that the OP was "stupid" as Markharf and others assert (why people are congratulating that conclusion is beyond me) or that they "got away with something". Should you put an uptrack in that spot when there is instability above? Nope. But the OP accurately assessed the risk ON THAT DAY and skied it without incident. You guys/girls are adamant that it's never safe to lap that spot, but that's complete BS. Hop could of made his/her point by simply saying that more people could enjoy that slope if everybody used the "MT Baker Pro Patrol Approved/Hop Mentor Certified/Bagley Police Mandated" uptrack down the way. I know this will come a shock to some of you, but your so-called "wisdom" may not be wanted, needed or appreciated by the OP. I know I found it obnoxious.

A lower perception of risk doesn't make it a more accurate perception of risk. And the snowmobile community is probably not a good example of good habits in avalanche terrain, especially not the snowmo-ski community. At least most of the real slednecks that I know are willing to spend the money on airbags and are asking for better avalanche education options for sledders.

The last numbers that I saw indicated that the overall backcountry skier deaths are catching up to the overall sledder deaths now. Previously more sledders died than skiers but in my experience skiers are doing a better job of getting educated and have more resources available easily for education.

If there was such a thing. Please realize that most of us are lying in a vat of goo suppling power to the machine world. ;-)

I wish that the beings who are using us as batteries would send in an illusion of one of those winters with well over 100" of snow depth on the Snoqualmie telemetry and non-stop powder days in the big trees up thattaway.

But yeah, different people will make different decisions as to how they balance risk avoidance versus other goals. One hopes that we all are at least factoring in the likely risks as part of the analysis. My impression is that the good discussion that has been part of this thread has gone through at least a few circles at this point and that the recent useful observations aren't for the most part brand new to the thread...

I'd guess that there are more skiiers venturing into avy and avy terrain start zones then snowmobiles.

We also go out on storms days where avys can and do happen in the tree line glades and terrain traps. Some folks even head to more serious avy terrain during high hazard.

Snowmobiles have a hard time in deep powder and no base.

You have to be a very skilled snowmobiler to get up into high places off the road. The numbers can't be that high.

On the other hand, you do not have to be a skilled skier to go anywhere in the bc and that number is increasing. Thanks to new ski tech.

I think we need to be clear in no uncertain terms. Don't put risk on me, we don't like.

hop, you identified a public safety concern and i will send this thread to your local fs. Could you print the address.

I bet the average snowmobiler on a typical day gets into more start zones/day than the average skier.

New mountain sleds are very capable and the snowbikes can get even more places that the sleds can't go. The biggest sleds these days have 173" tracks and float pretty well on the deepest snow we see around here.

Storms don't slow the sled crowd down, it just changes where they go. Most sledders will stay off the Easton glacier in flat light but that just means spending the day in the trees or heading to Glacier Creek or Canyon Creek. Maybe half of my days on a sled are storm days and I consider myself a fair weather sledder.

I'm not sure what the numbers look like for either user group, you could pull sled registration numbers but that doesn't tell the entire story. I do know that parking areas are full at any of the sled zones around here on any given weekend just like the upper lot at Heather Meadows is packed full of people who can't seem to park any better than they can set skin tracks before 9am on the weekends.

That said, your line of thinking is all the more reason that sledders are a bad example to follow, especially if they are getting killed at a higher rate. I know the overall number of deaths per year is higher in the sled community than the ski community and you might be right that there are less sledders exposed to danger than skiers.

At first the numbers look like the skiers are getting into avalanches more but that's with data going back to the 1950s. If you deselect all years and then start adding them back in from 1995 to 2016 it doesn't look so good for sledders. Then start taking the number back out from 1995 to 2016 and it looks like the number shift dramatically towards more skiers than sledder per year 2009 or 2010, the same time that our economy turned down and people couldn't buy new sleds and probably didn't get out as much as they used to. I'm implying causation but really can't say much more than to suggest a correlation. Either way, too many people are dying in avalanches every year.

URBAN DICTIONARYCodgerThe origin of codger seems to lie in the complex links between cadger and codger (not as a contraction of 'coffin-dodger', as one of my more inventive correspondents has suggested). In some parts of England the two words were used interchangeably, whereas in other regions they were separate words, one meaning 'beggar' and the other 'eccentric/grotesque fellow'. The latter meaning is the one used in an early example of 'old codger', David Garrick's farce Bon Ton, 1775:

"My Lord's servants call you an old out-of-fashion'd Codger."

Men who had fallen on hard times and had resorted to any means possible to keep body and soul together were often those who were too old to find work. A cadger was likely to be a grizzled character wanting to borrow or steal from you; a codger was a peculiar and unfashionable chap, and both were likely to be old. 'Old codger' is most likely to be the linguistic merging of all those images.David Garrick's farce Bon Ton, 1775:

Chief Etiquette Officer of TAY and TAY's #1 PosterPoet Laureate of TAY.Chairman and Founder of FOTAY( Friends of TAY)Moderator of the moderators."Most Brilliant Move" of the 11/12 ski season" Knows what he is talking about"Expert Typist.Crystal Whore" Scotsman may be correct"....Mikerolfs

737 American's die ever year falling out of bed. So I'm happy to take my chances in the backcountry.

I'm of the Greg Cronn school of thought that on a stable day a skin track up Table is a great way to farm pow. These guys were out 36 hours after a nice dump with moderate winds. Conditions were stable! They were good to go! Seems like a lot of new folks in the backcountry have a very "paint by numbers" approach to risk assessment where this or that behavior or ski line is always problematic with regards to actual conditions. Hopefully they develop a more nuanced approach with time.

An interesting corollary! A friend of a friend dropped into the north face of Table using Hops designated approach several days after this TR. An individual ascending the offending skin track BLEW UP on them for dropping in above his party. This strikes me as equally ridiculous. If they weren't comfortable with that probability then this particular skin track was the last place they should be.

In the end you need to make an appropriate decision FOR YOURSELF and stop stressing over your inability to control the decisions others will make. Basically get up 45 minutes earlier and get the hell out of Bagely Lakes Basin.

As Poet Laureate of TAY this wonderful thread has inspired me to compose the " Ballard of the Seattle Skintrack."

To be sung to the classic Monty Pythons " I'm a Lumberjack and I'm OK"

I'm a Millennial and I don't care, I'll put my skintrack anywhere,the old codgers have got their panties in a twist,They don't recognize how good I am at assessing risk.

Chorus." He's a special snowflake and he don't care, he'll put his skintrack anywhere.

I'm a Millennial and I don't care, I'll put my skintrack anywhere,I've got a new air-bag pack, fat skis and and avalanche beacon,the old codgers are just jealous of my disposable income.

Chorus"He's a special snowflake and he don't care, he'll put his skintrack anywhere.

I'm a Millennial and I don't care, I'll put my skintrack anywhere,the old codgers think they are helping by giving advice,but it triggers my hurt feelings and thats not nice.

Chorus" He's a special snowflake and he don't care, he'll put his skintrack anywhere,

I'm a Millennial and I don't care, I'll put my skintrack anywhere,I'll ski where I want and I go to the backcountry to be free,forget others in the area, don't you understand ,this is all about ME!

Final Chorus" He's a special snowflake and he don't care, he'll put his skintrack anywhere!"

Logged

Chief Etiquette Officer of TAY and TAY's #1 PosterPoet Laureate of TAY.Chairman and Founder of FOTAY( Friends of TAY)Moderator of the moderators."Most Brilliant Move" of the 11/12 ski season" Knows what he is talking about"Expert Typist.Crystal Whore" Scotsman may be correct"....Mikerolfs

I'm a Millennial and I don't care, I'll put my skintrack anywhere,the old codgers keep saying that skintrack setting is an art practiced by few,but the participation trophy I got from my Mom says that's not true.?Not feeling it... but at least I tried.

« Last Edit: 01/31/17, 08:01 PM by Scotsman »

Logged

Chief Etiquette Officer of TAY and TAY's #1 PosterPoet Laureate of TAY.Chairman and Founder of FOTAY( Friends of TAY)Moderator of the moderators."Most Brilliant Move" of the 11/12 ski season" Knows what he is talking about"Expert Typist.Crystal Whore" Scotsman may be correct"....Mikerolfs

In the end you need to make an appropriate decision FOR YOURSELF and stop stressing over your inability to control the decisions others will make. Basically get up 45 minutes earlier and get the hell out of Bagely Lakes Basin.

While discussions like this can have positive outcomes on peoples' future decisions and justify the effort, the above quote is the only reasonable conclusion. This thing could go on for 30 more pages and we could rehash the same arguments with the occasional bit of enlightenment thrown in and I would still arrive at dberdinka's conclusion and take it up a notch. Don't go to Bagley Lakes, especially on the weekend with fresh snow and good visibility. Again, I can get into plenty of trouble all by myself. I don't need help from others. Backcountry risk assessment is difficult enough without having to factor in the behavior of other users. Throw in a fellow codger yelling at me about my slightly imperfect turns brushing the bottom of his supple S turns and I'll be the guy a few ridges over.

While discussions like this can have positive outcomes on peoples' future decisions and justify the effort, the above quote is the only reasonable conclusion. This thing could go on for 30 more pages and we could rehash the same arguments with the occasional bit of enlightenment thrown in and I would still arrive at dberdinka's conclusion and take it up a notch. Don't go to Bagley Lakes, especially on the weekend with fresh snow and good visibility. Again, I can get into plenty of trouble all by myself. I don't need help from others. Backcountry risk assessment is difficult enough without having to factor in the behavior of other users. Throw in a fellow codger yelling at me about my slightly imperfect turns brushing the bottom of his supple S turns and I'll be the guy a few ridges over.

Best comment in the whole thread. I've been watching these kinds of TAY discussions for years and believe it is a key factor in discouraging specific types of participation. So many assumptions made about the OP. So much virtue signalling and pontificating. So much assertions over what is "safe", "dangerous" or what exactly is in an aiare level 1 course and how black and white these "rules" all of the sudden are.

You are responsible for yourself. If you encounter someone making a bad decisions that may put you or your party at risk I advise going another route. You don't need to march up to them and lecture them on the side of the mountain and you don't need to come vehemently fuming on TAY in an effort to virtue signal. Proving to yourself and the world how much more experienced you think you are in the BC.

Besides given the area it is like complaining about snowshoers walking to Snow Lake without beacon/shovel/probe. Stupid? Yes but you won't stop them. Don't like it? Get further out!

There's a reason why some of us old codgers are still codgering, after hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds or so tours.

Maybe the op will share the snow profile and test results in the start zones that day with all of us. Maybe it was just to dangerous to top out from the bowl that day, don't know.

And we know that a snow profile on that slope won't represent the wind slab concern near the complex convex at the top of the slope which, I believe, was the detailed forecast by NWAC that day. A snow pit is but one single data point that should be used in a collection of data points for one's decisions making process.

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i am puzzled (us codger get puzzled from time to time) as to why the professionals at the baker patrol don't recommend people putting in skin tracks in avy terrain, when that terrain can be avoided?

Well old cogger you probably know that any skiable slope is "avy terrain". The only way to avoid it is to not ski.