Sunday, September 25, 2016

Actually, you can't measure it

Measurements do the changing
There are may project domains where measurements change the thing being measured, so that the results are incorrect, sometimes dramatically so:

Many chemical reactions or chemistry attributes

Some biological effects

Most quantum effects

Most very-high or ultra-high frequency systems (VHF and UHF, to extend to micro and millimeter wave systems)

Some optical effects

And, of course, many human behaviors and biases are themselves biased by measurement processes

Intangibles et al
Not be left out: the affects and effects of intangibles, like leadership, empathy, the art of communication, and others. Not directly measureable, their impact is a matter of inference. Typically: imagine the situation without these influences; imagine the situation with them. The difference is as close to a measurement -- if you can call it that -- that you'll get.

Which all leaves the project where?

Inference and deduction based on observable outcomes which are downstream or isolated or buffered from the instigating effects

Statistical predictions that may not be inference or deduction

Bayes reasoning, which is all about dependent or conditioned outcomes

Simulations and emulations

Bottom line: don't buy into the mantra of "measure everything". Measuring may well be more detrimental than no measurements at all