Friday, April 22, 2016

Week 4 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

Week four of the NASL spring season brings us another Friday evening game and a full slate of tantalizing matchups. The Preview Show podcast is up in time to enjoy with your Saturday morning coffee, and this post will be updated to include the remainder of my favorite weekly lines shortly thereafter.Starting this week, I will also be assigning each line with a one (★), two (★★), or three star (★★★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star (★) will correspond to one unit.

Favorite Lines:

Miami FC vs. Rayo OKC Both Teams to Score (-110, ★★): Miami has scored and conceded in all three of their matches this season, while OKC combined for five total goals in their last outing two weeks ago. Both teams have a lot of potential in the final third, and boast some of the better attacking players in the league on their rosters. I'm not confident enough in either team to pick a result here (although there might be value in Rayo +.5), but I would be surprised if either team keeps a clean sheet.Carolina Railhawks Double Chance / +.5 (-140, ★): Ride the hot hand. It's no secret that the spring season is all about a fast start, and Carolina has come out of the gates smoking. While I'm not overly confident they can win their fourth in as many games, they should have enough quality to keep it level against a Rowdies squad which has underwhelmed thus far.Railhawks on Fire would be a pretty great band name. New York Cosmos Draw No Bet (+110, ★★): It's hard to imagine the Cosmos losing twice in two games against teams they never have historically. Indy's stunner will have New York focused and ready for redemption, and Minnesota's defense has not yet been proven against a quality attack. I believe the midfield matchups favor the Cosmos, and I expect them to have a fair amount of success through the middle.FC Edmonton vs. Ottawa Fury Under 2 (+110, ★★★): One goal between these two through six combined games in 2016, and the six historical matchups between the clubs have all finished with two goals or less. Both teams had their best attacking players leave in the offseason (without suitable replacements), and both boast goalkeepers capable of keeping a clean sheet.

Predictions:

We will be tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview Show. Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook. James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on twitter.