is RIM "dead man walking"?

RIM is taking offers as far as I can tell, they have a review going on looking at all options, I'm sure they'd be glad to be bought by someone to get some more cash behind them.

As to what they are innovating on and could break out with, it's probably automotive, QNX is in about 60% of auto touch screen platforms, and the new auto UI is HTML5 and synced with the BB10 dev tools, so you can build for both with one toolset and API (BB Webworks).

From what I've seen (and used) of BB10 it doesn't seem much like Android for the core functionality. I'm more worried that it's too different and people won't know how to swipe in the store when trying one out, though I think the release of Windows 8 will help as they are similar on a UI swipe control level, even if they are different swipes.

I'm sure they'd be glad to be bought by someone to get some more cash behind them.

At the right price, I'm sure they'll be glad to be bought by anyone for any reason.

They aren't in a position to be terribly choosy. The sell-by date of this company is rapidly approaching -- about six months or less after BB10 ships, the stock will be either worth a lot more. . .or a lot less.

Okay, this is big. And bad news for RIM, and Apple, great for consumers though! The new Nexus is only $299/$349 for 8/16GB. No it doesn't have LTE, but it has everything else you could want in a flagship phone. Not sure if it has an SD card, that would be key for the 8GB model. If Google/LG really make money on a $300 flagship phone RIM/Apple/everyone else is about to get a huge haircut on their revenue going forward.

But, it's a heck of a phone for an off-contract price. Apparently, there's a T-Mobile contract version that's 100 dollars less.

For US-centric comparisons, then, the thing starts at 199. But, if I were in the market, it would be the off-contract price that could be the most interesting. I could use this phone in a lot of ways and have lots of carrier options. Intriguing. Even the LTE isn't that big a deal for me, personally, because I spend a lot of time out of the range of LTE anyway.

. . .suggests that Google is trying to be as arms-length with the carriers as it can. Basically, they view LTE as still immature and not worth the negotiations with the carriers; without LTE, the phone is much more universal.

It's essentially a $499 iPhone 4S for only $349, in terms of raw specs.

The on contract price isn't compelling given it's competing with the $199 iPhone 5, however.

This won't be hurting the iPhone as much as it hurts everyone else given Apple has a pretty good ecosystem to "lock" consumers in (apps, services, inter and intra product network such as AirPlay and notifications, iMessage, etc).

The reason I say it won't hurt Apple is for the same reason that, for the first three years, RIM's sales actually kept pace with Apple; the problem for RIM is that they stopped being able to keep up once Apple started pushing better HW, better SW, equivalent services, and other features.

So long as Apple can continue to release updates annually with major OS features to push the HW, Apple will do okay.

Who will get hammered is everyone else offering a $300 to $500 phone (Sony, Motorola, Samsung, Nokia, and RIM) who cannot keep up with Google's SW update pace. In other words, there are only two phones worth buying now, Apple's iPhone and Google's Nexus 4.

It's essentially a $499 iPhone 4S for only $349, in terms of raw specs.

It's a LOT better than an iPhone 4S.

OrangeCream wrote:

Who will get hammered is everyone else offering a $300 to $500 phone (Sony, Motorola, Samsung, Nokia, and RIM) who cannot keep up with Google's SW update pace. In other words, there are only two phones worth buying now, Apple's iPhone and Google's Nexus 4.

It's closer to an iPhone 5 without LTE than a 4S. Don't kid yourself, it's a threat to Apple, and a huge body blow to RIM and other Android/Windows Phone manufacturers.

I was planning to buy my next phone off contract...and the Nexus 4 16GB at $349 looks a lot more likely for me than a BB10 phone at $599. Depending on reviews of course. If BB10 is $250 better I don't mind dropping the coin, but it better kick some ass.

Using thickness to somehow segment phones into strata when you're talking about such small differences is fucking retarded. It's a great phone and the price is pretty amazing.

The phone isn't a threat to the 5 anymore than any other highend Android handset has been. Certainly not anywhere where the phone will be subsidized (T-Mobile is selling it for $199 on two year contract...assholes).

I was planning to buy my next phone off contract...and the Nexus 4 16GB at $349 looks a lot more likely for me than a BB10 phone at $599. Depending on reviews of course. If BB10 is $250 better I don't mind dropping the coin, but it better kick some ass.

I appreciate your honesty here, Zinger1. Props.

But, isn't the buzz on the Nexus 4 amazing? Zinger1 is at least thinking about it and even I am taking a look with no earthly reason to buy another phone and it isn't compatible with my carrier (CDMA). (Of course, I'm thinking about off-carrier someday, but that's someday not 2012).

OC is chiming in in his own way.

I mean, holy crap, it's just a few press releases, but it sure has gotten attention.

That price is essentially declaring war on the carrier subsidy model, and the phone is more than capable enough to deliver. It deserves a lot of press. They should have told T-Mobile to get stuffed and done a high publicity deal with one of the MVNOs.

We'll see how effective it is. It could potentially be the most damaging thing Google has done to Apple since launching Android, in the US at least.

That price is essentially declaring war on the carrier subsidy model, and the phone is more than capable enough to deliver. It deserves a lot of press. They should have told T-Mobile to get stuffed and done a high publicity deal with one of the MVNOs.

The majority of wireless customers in the US are on the Big 4, not doing a deal with at least one of them would have been suicide. Also, there's no way those carriers would let Google launch a major device on MVNO's, and Google can't afford to take the risk when the big carriers are such a large part of the distribution story, especially AT&T/Verizon.

That price is essentially declaring war on the carrier subsidy model, and the phone is more than capable enough to deliver. It deserves a lot of press. They should have told T-Mobile to get stuffed and done a high publicity deal with one of the MVNOs.

The majority of wireless customers in the US are on the Big 4, not doing a deal with at least one of them would have been suicide. Also, there's no way those carriers would let Google launch a major device on MVNO's, and Google can't afford to take the risk when the big carriers are such a large part of the distribution story, especially AT&T/Verizon.

There's no way they could prevent it, except to throw money at them. The only relationship theey're risking is Motorola's.

As for suicide; it's a Nexus phone. How many do they honestly expect to sell? Well, at that price, they'll probably move a good few, but it's not like there are major volume expectations for a Nexus phone.

Previous Nexus phones were considerably more expensive, had much more limited distribution, less marketing, but were otherwise excellent quality.

Assuming follow through is good, I expect they should be able to trivially sell 100m of the Nexus 4 a year (it might take a year of advertising and word of mouth, but at that price it should be subsidized to a $0 on all major carriers!)

That price is essentially declaring war on the carrier subsidy model, and the phone is more than capable enough to deliver. It deserves a lot of press. They should have told T-Mobile to get stuffed and done a high publicity deal with one of the MVNOs.

The majority of wireless customers in the US are on the Big 4, not doing a deal with at least one of them would have been suicide. Also, there's no way those carriers would let Google launch a major device on MVNO's, and Google can't afford to take the risk when the big carriers are such a large part of the distribution story, especially AT&T/Verizon.

There's no way they could prevent it, except to throw money at them. The only relationship theey're risking is Motorola's.

Carriers are the main distribution channel and point of sale for smartphones, I'm sure there are a number of ways they can work that leverage against Google should they see fit; the lack of Google Wallet on Verizon for a number of months because they want to get ISIS off the ground being one example. But I'm sure there's a fair amount of tip toeing that both they and Apple have to do to make sure they stay on carrier good side, and selling a high profile device to MVNO's would definitely get on their bad side. But I'll admit I have no direct evidence of this, it's just an inference.

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As for suicide; it's a Nexus phone. How many do they honestly expect to sell? Well, at that price, they'll probably move a good few, but it's not like there are major volume expectations for a Nexus phone.

The carriers relationships are with the individual handset vendors, not Google; and this is a Nexus device, so, sold through Google. There is very little there for Google to risk.

As for Apple tiptoeing...some, sure, but then they've already had the carriers agree to the demands they care about. Apple is, after all, just another handset vendor when you boil it down. Google, on the other hand, has an entirely different agenda.

The carriers relationships are with the individual handset vendors, not Google; and this is a Nexus device, so, sold through Google. There is very little there for Google to risk.

You're absolutely right, but I disagree with the claim that there's little for Google to risk since they still have to work with carriers to have their services integrated with their products, like the Google Wallet situation with Verizon. Also I feel the fact that they bizarrely don't even mention Google Voice as a quality substitute for carrier's SMS services, and their inability to get stock Android on non-Nexus devices like their own Motorola devices shows that carriers have plenty of say in how Google deploys a number of Android products/services. Same with Apple of course, but you've already pointed out how they seem to have far less say in what Apple does.

Motorola devices shows that carriers have plenty of say in how Google deploys a number of Android products/services. Same with Apple of course, but you've already pointed out how they seem to have far less say in what Apple does.

There's some risk/reward here. If you go by the article, Google is striking, in potential, a bit of a blow to the carrier subsidy model.

That one probably is doomed longer term anyway, but someone has to give it a shove and Google is doing so.

Since Android does better in unsubsidized markets, there's incentive to take some risks with the relationships. The carriers have a bit of a sinecure, but only if the consumers have no real alternative. This is the beginning of one.

One of the problems up to now is that the pre-paid market has had limited ability to get the better phones. A year ago, there was basically nothing. This is another crack in that armor.

The carriers have to worry, at least a bit, that Google plus the rest of the pre-paids will do to them what MCI did to AT&T back in the day. So, they can't be too all "grand poo-bah" about this.

It also puts them on notice that if they want to replace Google's services, they had better do a good job, because the "real thing" is just a couple of clicks away now.

The carriers relationships are with the individual handset vendors, not Google; and this is a Nexus device, so, sold through Google. There is very little there for Google to risk.

You're absolutely right, but I disagree with the claim that there's little for Google to risk since they still have to work with carriers to have their services integrated with their products, like the Google Wallet situation with Verizon.

Sure, although the carriers tend to be happy to support those, unless they somehow conflict with their own services. It just makes them look like they provide more services to their customers, after all. And if a competitor offers them sdomething more they will happily toss Google servises over the side.

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Also I feel the fact that they bizarrely don't even mention Google Voice as a quality substitute for carrier's SMS services, and their inability to get stock Android on non-Nexus devices like their own Motorola devices shows that carriers have plenty of say in how Google deploys a number of Android products/services. Same with Apple of course, but you've already pointed out how they seem to have far less say in what Apple does.

I am not sure Google has ever really pushed it, honestly. The Android strategy was so much more amorphous at the beginning.

The last two Nexus devices really feel like Google has figured out what they want to do.

The Pentagon is planning to open its network for the first time to Apple iPhones and devices running Google’s Android operating system, a threat to BlackBerry maker Research in Motion.

The Defense Department plans to hire a contractor to build a system that will manage and secure at least 162,500 Android devices and Apple products such as the iPad, according to a document posted online Oct. 22. The system may be expanded to handle 8 million devices, the department said.

The project is “a significant step towards delivering a secure mobile communications capability’’ to the entire agency, according to the document.

The plan opens the door for the military to provide alternatives to BlackBerrys, which already are used on the Pentagon’s network. RIM has clung to government business as an area of strength as consumers and some businesses switch to rival devices with bigger touch screens and faster browsers.

For the year ended March 3, RIM’s sales in the United States, its biggest market fell 47 percent compared with the previous year.

The Pentagon wants to allow employees to access its network with a broader range of mobile devices so it can “take advantage of the increasing wireless capabilities that exist and that are developing in the marketplace,” according to the contracting document.

Previous Nexus phones were considerably more expensive, had much more limited distribution, less marketing, but were otherwise excellent quality.

Assuming follow through is good, I expect they should be able to trivially sell 100m of the Nexus 4 a year (it might take a year of advertising and word of mouth, but at that price it should be subsidized to a $0 on all major carriers!)

That's an equally silly prediction, and just as wrong. No consumer electronics product in history has ever achieved that, but you think a phone from a little known brand that will likely receive any substantial marketing efforts is going to?

The biggest LOL is the T-Mobile $199 on a two year contract...a subsidy of $100-150, unlike the $300-400 with a Galaxy or iPhone. Don't the carriers get it that this is the beginning of the end for their lame contract lock in deals? Google is being very aggressive here. And to stay on topic, RIM is in trouble if a flagship phone is now supposed to be under $400.

Nah Rawls is right, that's a goofy prediction. Also impossible from a standing start.

I think the Nexus 4 has the potential to be the best selling Nexus phone yet, but 100 million is a ridiculously high target. Even if there was the demand, distribution, marketing, carrier support and so on, it would probably by difficult to secure the manufacturing and perhaps even the parts.

What is going to be interesting it to see how other companies respond to the pricing, because right now other than the Note II Samsung's entire product line looks overpriced, and the likes of Nokia, HTC and Motorola aren't even in the same ballpark. Oh and sticking on topic RIM better get their thinking caps on, the question of price and value might be about to take a change of direction.

The biggest LOL is the T-Mobile $199 on a two year contract...a subsidy of $100-150, unlike the $300-400 with a Galaxy or iPhone. Don't the carriers get it that this is the beginning of the end for their lame contract lock in deals? Google is being very aggressive here. And to stay on topic, RIM is in trouble if a flagship phone is now supposed to be under $400.

I saw that and had the same reaction. It really highlights the poor value you're getting with the subsidy.

That said, that level of subsidy was the standard pre-smartphone (and pre-coffers filling data add ons) and T-Mobile actually has a reasonable everything unlimited off contract plan.

At even 10 million in a year, it would be massively successful by an reasonable measure in the Android universe of multiple handsets all of the time. And, it could have an outsized influence on the market.

It may well be that Google builds its brand and image and gets to that 100 million over time. Maybe it does 30 with this new phone.

But, while it may represent the future of distribution, especially in the US, there's big holes.

1. No CDMA2. What's the retail story again?3. And yes, no LTE will eventually bite if we're talking "100 million".4. The distribution model is forward looking, but that will represent a drag on sales in 2012 and the phone will be replaced in 2013 in all probability.

If the desire is 100 million, there's a lot wrong here. If the desire is to start inventing the future, it's a heck of a product.

But, while it may represent the future of distribution, especially in the US, there's big holes.

1. No CDMA2. What's the retail story again?3. And yes, no LTE will eventually bite if we're talking "100 million".4. The distribution model is forward looking, but that will represent a drag on sales in 2012 and the phone will be replaced in 2013 in all probability.

If the desire is 100 million, there's a lot wrong here. If the desire is to start inventing the future, it's a heck of a product.

I think the Nexus line is aimed as much at Europe as the US. The price there is fantastic, and LTE/CDMA a non-issue. In the US, I think this is mostly aimed at just growing the prepaid market and putting pressure on Verizon etc. to play nicer with the Nexus line going forward.