Wages of Wins podcast – Harden is better than Durant

Mad apologies for some technical difficulties. We’ll need to get Arturo a better microphone. Even with some software correction I couldn’t quite change the fact that his volume bounces all over the place. We’ll work on it for next time.

We have another podcast for you! This time Arturo talks the NBA finals and Boston

At the same time, the talent is tantalizing enough to think long and hard about him, but if Billy Beane taught us anything it’s not to pick the guy who looks best in a uniform but doesn’t put up numbers.

Arturo’s answer is that he thinks the Thunder all fall apart if they ditch James Harden, who is their best player. Yes, Arturo said this and stuck to it. I said we need to make Arturo post on this.

What should Boston do in the offseason?

Sorry, here is where Arturo’s audio really falls apart.

Arturo is hoping Jared Sullinger falls far enough for the Celtics. Omer Asik from Chicago could be a good pickup as well. Arturo says the Celtics should re-sign Garnett if he’s reasonable and let Ray Allen walk.

Mosi, why all the hate? Lol, the heat are one game away. As for durant and harden, durant is a great scorer that is very turnover prone, a bad passer, and aside from def rebounds, isn’t very good at all in regards to possession factors. I buy that harden is the better player.

@reservoirgod Harden’s doesn’t need to shoot perimeter shots well to have an impact. Harden has the perimeter shot, the handle, the court vision, the floater.

Durant is still very pure scoring. Better is such a loaded term…More impact on the game’s outcome. Harden’s present difficulties is because he’s young—he’s thinking too much about his turnovers which is part of the Heat gameplan (they destroy passing confidence).

Sullinger has long arms, good rebounds. He’s not a great shot blocker but he’s a decent player.
It’s his back red flag that is the problem. but judging from his year to year production, I don’t see that there was a problem. Otherwise good bet. A sophomore with his stats? He’s a better option than Beal. Quite a steal.

@EntityAbyss: Harden’s production is below avg in the following areas in The Finals: shooting efficiency, shot attempts, points, turnovers, blocks and fouls. NBA coaches & execs can be criticized for many things but they do a good job identifying superstars. There’s a reason Durant’s a 3-time all-star and Harden comes off the bench.

@bballpants: Harden can’t do anything as well as Durant scores. Sullinger couldn’t score against big men in the NCAA tournament. His best bet is to become Shelden Williams… and that ain’t saying much.

@reservoirgod I’m only talking about who’s better at securing wins. if you look at points rebounds, steals assists, free throws and other stuff. Harden just does more. Durant just don’t have the passing acumen or the power to draw defenders into him.

I value penetration and causing mismatches than I do pure scoring ability. It creates more problems and taxes the opp. defenses more. I’m might do a post on the metrics of it. How much scoring is enough to counteract better passing and penetration? scoring is 15%-20% of wins produced right? Steals, rebounds, assists make up 30%? 40%? Does harden rebound more than durant?

Sullinger is a sophomore with roughly 8.5PRAWS40. it is REALLY good for being so young. A lot better MKG, Beal, etc. He gets to the free throw line and has a strong FT. His blocks and steals are concerning. He’s def. a good low round bet. One of the best. You have to think of these as bets.

I’m pretty sure kobe bryant (14 time all-star) has played below average in the finals before. The reason harden comes off the bench is because they want his scoring with the bench players. Manu ginobili is the best player on the spurs and comes off the bench.

“NBA coaches & execs. . . do a good job identifying superstars.” Could you put that surprising statement into context, by giving us a definition of ‘superstar’ under which it would be accurate? Or perhaps a brief list of players identified as such? I’ll grant you that Pat Riley recently got 2 out of 3 correct, but all of WoW history is a powerful argument against you.

“There’s a reason Durant’s a 3-time all-star and Harden comes off the bench.” Could you enlighten us as to what, in your opinion, that reason might be? Is it empirical, or more of an eyeball test? Strictly because of Finals performance? Other ‘superstars’ have had rough Finals, I seem to recall. My own pick as GOAT, Magic, was pretty rough in ’84–though he wasn’t bad in ’80. Or ’82, ’85, ’87, or ’88. Not sure that tells us much, either.

Harden was more productive per minute than Durant this season, and nearly as productive, total, in 600 LESS minutes. Should we dismiss that for the last 5 games? Is that your standard?

How much of the Harden/Durant conclusion is due to the fact that Durant is consistently excellent and Harden can be, somewhat, up and down (I don’t mean good/bad, I mean good/stupendous). Durant always shows up and plays well while Harden can be taken out by certain defenders/schemes. I can’t think of a single team/fan base that would rather have Harden than Durant. Also, coming off the bench, Harden gets to play against the second teamers a little more often and also benefits from playing next to Durant, who spreads the floor very nicely with his range and driving ability.

There’s a big something to be said for Durant’s incredible scoring ability; especially in these playoffs (less a few finals games), he’s been able to hit shots from anywhere on the floor with remarkable efficiency.

Here’s how this fits into the “extra possessions” view from bballpants: Durant takes broken or otherwise ‘dead-end’ plays and converts them into made baskets at a remarkable rate (even more remarkable if you think that the Scott Brooks/Westbrook system is bad at creating good looks).

While Durant doesn’t have the broad statlines that Harden frequently posts, I’d argue that a fair share of his points are points that would be lost if he were replaced by almost any other star.

Random thought I’ve been kicking around for the last couple games – Durant’s weakness on defense is absolutely killing the Thunder. Durant can’t possibly contain LeBron, fine, he has to guard Battier – which puts Sefolosha on LeBron and Westbrook on Wade, which are both fine assignments – but then you’re stuck with your 1-2-3 guarding Miami’s 2-3-4, which basically means either Miami’s PG gets to run wild (while OKC doesn’t really get a size advantage on the other end since Battier / LeBron are such big physical defenders), or they run small as well and concede Miami the size advantage.

Neither of these options seems to be working all that well for them; they’re really getting hurt by defensive mismatches, and the root of it seems to be Durant’s inability to match up against any of Miami’s premiere players.

I’ll readily admit I’m not as statistically savvy as the creators of this blog, but I think maybe this podcast was never listed was less for technical difficulties and more for statistical difficulties. Durant produced more wins in 2012 than Harden. Isn’t that the most important stat in basketball?

James,
Classic! Yeah during that section I actually prodded Arturo multiple times on it, and even “threatened” with using it as the title. He did not back down. I agree that currently Durant is most important Thunder. We’ll have to see what Arturo says WHEN he writes his piece.