Microsoft Antivirus Software?

Will Microsoft add antivirus capability to its OSs? And why on earth would it bother?

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Although Microsoft has never ruled out the notion of adding antivirus software to its offerings in the past, it has had no real bottom-line reason to do so. Microsoft does not do anything unless it fends off a threat to the core business or makes money. So why develop a huge company infrastructure to support antivirus software? There is no way Microsoft could sell the software, because people would demand that it be bundled as part of the operating system. And Microsoft would have to do that anyway, to have a consistent story about how it innovates. So where is the additional revenue? With antivirus software, there is none: It's just an added expense.

I have used this explanation for years when people ask me why Microsoft doesn't bundle antivirus software. So I was just as surprised as anyone else when Bill Gates told a small group having dinner with him in Manhattan just before the launch of Windows XP that the company may be reconsidering its position on the issue. Note that Microsoft is already toying with building firewall protection into the OS, as with Windows XP. There doesn't seem to be any money in that either. So what's going on?

I think Microsoft will incorporate antivirus software into its system for marketing reasons that are directly related to the company's .NET strategy. I also suspect that Microsoft will license the software from an existing antivirus company and put it under the Microsoft label, but that's not important. What is important is the underlying reason for all thisand it's not computer security.

Microsoft wants people to get used to the idea of 24/7 online connections to Microsoft. Antivirus software would let the company connect to users' machines more than ever before. People don't necessarily like this idea. They don't trust the company, and over the years they've fretted that Microsoft might look at their Quicken records or spy to see whose competitive software is listed in the Registry, and then erase crucial files. These notions are crazy, but they simmer deep in the public consciousness.

Anyway, Microsoft has to find some reasonable excuse to access your machine. And antivirus updates are that excuse. The company believes that if it can get people used to constant updating, it can then use the connections for other purposes as well. The other purposes, of course, are mercantile. Microsoft wants to sell you hats and CDs and get you to subscribe to newsletters. In the viral update process, you'll somehow become a Passport user, too. Already the company says that every 12-year-old with a Hotmail account is an active Passport user. So Microsoft can claim huge usage numbers. Over time, people will come to see Passport as the obvious choice, and then you can kiss Sun ONE and other competitive schemes good-bye.

Many of these ideas flow from the MSN team. Microsoft seems intent on eventually making that service a true success. MSN is hardly a flop, but it's not having the kind of success that Office enjoys. And MSN isn't even close to its competitor, AOL.

Over the years Microsoft must have been galled by watching AOL take over people's machines and do gratuitous upgrades. "AOL is updating the system; your account will not be charged." Users are not even given a choice, yet nobody complains. This has got to eat at Microsoft, since when updating a system, it has to apologize for the intrusion and ask permission, even beg users to accept the upgrade.

Insiders at Microsoft must squeal with glee as they imagine how daily antivirus updates would change the perceptions of users. As viruses pour onto the scene, Microsoft could easily update software daily. Maybe a few times a day!

The downside to all this, of course, is the antivirus software itself. Will it be as good as what we currently have? Will we be able to disable it and use Kaspersky or Symantec products? Probably, but the Microsoft antivirus product will be the in-house software that is bundled with the OS and will dominate for as long as it works. But Microsoft has overlooked the distinct possibility that its software will be even more of a target for hackers and crackers. One massive breakdown and you can be certain that people will flock back to the third-party folks and leave Microsoft right back where it started, only stuck with supporting an expensive antivirus infrastructure. Maybe the company should avoid this scene altogether.

John Dvorak is a columnist for PCMag.com and the host of the weekly TV video podcast CrankyGeeks. His work is licensed around the world. Previously a columnist for Forbes, Forbes Digital, PC World, Barrons, MacUser, PC/Computing, Smart Business and other magazines and newspapers. Former editor and consulting editor for Infoworld. Has appeared in the New York Times, LA Times, Philadelphia Enquirer, SF Examiner, Vancouver Sun. Was on the start-up team for CNet TV as well as ZDTV. At ZDTV (and TechTV) was host of Silicon...
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