Labour's big bang campaign strategy is high risk... But is there a bigger plan at play here?

Timing is everything. Whether it comes down to the woman of your dreams, the perfect job or when you get into the All Blacks, timing is of the essence. It's the same in politics.

And Labour is rolling the dice when it comes to the timing of its policy announcements and campaign strategy.

First, Labour has chosen to keep some major policy announcements for the election campaign. It was hammered earlier in the year for lacking solutions and new ideas, but opted to keep its powder dry. Well, that powder is exploding today -- as fireworks signs go up -- with the announcement this afternoon that it will raise the retirement age, slowly, from 65 to 67. That follows the likes of Australia and Britain.

If nothing else, you've got to say Goff's Labour has got some chutzpah. Its grabbed two of the third rails of politics in New Zealand -- a Capital Gains Tax and raising the retirement age. It's long been assumed these are guaranteed vote-losers.

That's not to even mention compulsory savings. Phew.

The party's chosen the big bang now, rather than announcing a year or more ago. The advantage of the latter is letting people get used to what could be a scary idea -- encouraging debate and discussion of detail and getting the kudos earlier for some brave thinking. To have rejected that path, for whatever reason, is risky. Will people have enough time to really understand the pros and cons of CGT and later super and the like?

It means voters' first impression of the policy is vital, simply because there's not much time for a second impression.

The advantage of announcing now is that Labour sets the agenda for the campaign, getting voters talking about the issues it wants to talk about and making National look reactive.

The other key strategic decision in focus this week is that of leaving Phil Goff off the party's billboards and not having a full-on campaign launch, complete with leader's speech. Again, timing counts.

The Labour crew will be hoping that the inevitable political criticism -- that Goff is hiding and perceived even within the party as damaging to the brand -- is done and dusted inside a few days. Only if that fades will it be able to advance its policies, upon which so much rides.

The idea, presumably, is then that Labour has 3-4 weeks to convince voters it is the party of ideas and vigour, compared to National as the party of "smile and wave" and "muddle through". And 3-4 weeks to explain why all thse big ideas are good ideas.

That's a tough ask, and a strategy full of risks. For one, you've got to beat a competitor at its strengths, not just at its weakness. If you give up on a leadership fight, you're hard pressed to beat John Key's National. For another, it means Labour's big point of difference is that it's the party of change, compared to National as the party of "steady as she goes".

You've got to think National would be pretty happy with that. These are times crying out for steadiness.

But Labour's strategy thus far raises one other point of timing. That is, which election campaign is Labour really gunning for? Looking at the decisions being made, I'm left with the impression that Labour has just begun its campaign for the 2014 election, rather than the one in a months time.

A focus on policy rather than the leader (seems somewhat sacrificial)... not attacking Key's popularity head on, but instead just chipping away at his weaknesses... bold, often unpopular new ideas that are usually only considered in the wilderness years... policies that will take a while for voters to get their head around, but ultimately provide a platform for attack and a clear difference from National... policies that re-brand and position a party rather than win votes... positions that could become more popular after three years of strict austerity and cuts.

It reads like a long-term strategy than a short-term one; like a party wanting to put a floor under the poll numbers, but not one taking the politically ruthless decisions necessary to win.

It looks like this election is a stop on the journey, not the destination.

Comments (9)

As recently as July, Phil Goff said Labour wasn't looking at raising the entitlement age "at this time".

"We think that we can avoid that alternative through the mechanisms that we've put in place in the past, that the Government has stopped funding, which is the Cullen Fund and through a policy ... that will raise tax revenue on an ongoing basis," Goff said.

"You can never say never, but there are sensible things that we can and should be doing now that would help us meet those costs."

Wonder how Goff was won over? I'm guessing Cunliffe must have been the advocate.

The Labour crew will be hoping that the inevitable political criticism -- that Goff is hiding and perceived even within the party as damaging to the brand -- is done and dusted inside a few days.

Goff is hiding - while he's front and centre on the TV ads? Yeah, right.

IMO, Labour has the better focus. Goff as national leader with local candidates to represent the people. National has Key as national leader with local candidates to represent <i>John Key.</i> Not really surprising though - the right is the natural home of the authoritarians.

Come on Draco, nice try but the phrase 'presidential-style campaigns' is hardly a new one. People vote for a PM as much as a party these days, and Goff's polling is woeful.

Even the Labour people will tell you they're taking the focus off him and putting it on policy, so let's not pretend his absence from the billboards is unusual. Of course it is. It's tactics. Labour's throwing everything at the idea they're the party of policy and bold ideas, not the party of the preferred Prime Minister.

“Baby boomers are prone to incessant blogging about subjects for which they believe they have some peculiar insight, and may even become enraptured of their own words such that they seek a type of self-gratifying stimulus by frequent posting of response comments on their own blogs” (NZHerald.com)

“Baby boomers were the first generation to grow up with television; some of the most popular shows during the baby boomer era were The Brady Bunch, Gilligan's Island, The Twilight Zone and Happy Days” (Wikipedia.org)

You got a point, Che? You're far too subtle for me on a Monday morning...

I make comments to have a conversation with readers (both those with something interesting to say and, it seems, those who don't). Seems polite to me.

And I'm not a baby boomer. I've written quite a bit on my frustration with how boomers dominate politics for their own good – there's a search engine on this site, feel free to use it.

And as usual, what you read on Tumeke is plain wrong (except for the producer bit).

by on March 06, 2012

Mens and womens shoes are designed specially too. All lunettes Dior designers need to be qualified to offer their client rare and different merchandise so most sellers offer something limited edition at some part yet another.

by on May 22, 2012

Providing you've got a hair-trigger finger reaction, if you do find a Louis Vuitton UK that you want you're in with a great chance of securing it.The Louis Vuitton Handbags reflect the class of the person holding them, as people are extremely conscious of their personality portrayed. They are lightweight, long-lasting and unique in color, shape and style.Louis Vuitton Outlets offer famous classic brand for LV,Channel, with perfect service.So become to the VIP soon.They offer more new styles,like LV purses,LV wallets etc. And are tested by product quality monitoring center .Your bridesmaids will love the jewelry at the Tiffany And Co and they will look stunning wearing it at your wedding. You can have your bracelets made in any of the Tiffany colors. If you don't see enough options, either call or tell us in the comments section at checkout how we can make yours perfect.Tiffany UK grabbed the globe, stands out as the celeb on their favorite stars luxury type, granted an innovative simple move the pavement luxury, complete with luxury.Thinking silver and gold ornaments are a little bit ordinary? Why not try Tiffany Jewellery Jewelry. With charming colors and delicate shapes.Louis Vuitton UK are ideal for daily usage. With the beautifully crafted exterior and with loads of interior space for all the essentials, it will adorn any outfit with city elegance.Want to become more charming and faddish? Go to visit Louis Vuitton Outlet webpage and select the most suitable products for yourselfWelcome to buy Discount Louis Vuitton Bags and Authentic Louis Vuitton in our Louis Vuitton Sale.Absolutely guaranteed quality and making every details greatest in products our company principle.Show someone how much you care with this sophisticated and sparkling Tiffany Jewellery collection. Cut with exquisite detail, this can be a beautiful yet practical gift.The Tiffany Jewellery UK will make you the eye-catcher. The most quality fashion jewelry design classical crystal creation makes the pendant the favorite of the fashion,Tiffany And Co Outlet is renowned for its innovative, quality products, mixing haute couture with the traditional Austrian craftsmanship. All Tiffany And Co Outlet has a lead content of 32% to maximise refraction for an incredible finish