Discriminative power of valid game-related statistics in the National Basketball Association

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the discriminatory power of valid gamerelated
statistics, on the outcome of a basketball game. The sample included 246 games
from the Men’s National Basketball Association; 2012 - 2013 Regular Season. The games
were classified as balanced (equal or below eight points) or unbalanced (above eight
points) based on the final score differential. Before analysis, reliability (95% limits of
agreement) and validity (kappa) assessment procedures were completed on the raw data.
Mann-Whitney U (post-hoc pairwise) tests with adjusted Bonferroni correction were used
to compare 17 game-related statistics between the winning and losing teams, in each
category. The statistical significance was set at P < 0.003. The analysis highlighted that
field goals made, field goal percentage, three points made, three point percentage,
defensive rebounds, total rebounds, assists and turn overs significantly differentiate
between winning and losing teams, over all games (P < 0.001). In addition, unbalanced
games had a total of nine performance indicators that were significantly different, with
steals also becoming discriminative than in all games. Conversely, for balanced games,
field goal percentage and field goals made were the only significant variables that
distinguished between winning and losing teams (P < 0.001). These findings have
numerous practical applications for an NBA team’s coach and recruitment scout.
Specifically, the coach can utilise the findings to design conditioning programs, regulate
training sessions and inform player or tactical selection.