604 thoughts on “Wait continues for revival of NEM in Chennai”

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Latest ECMWF continues to take TY Hagupit in towards Philippines , LF close to Tacloban(LF area of TY “HAIYAN” , 2013), and in the further days , shows LF on the Vietnam coast , and later the remnants are last seen close to the northern most portions of Gulf of Siam(Thailand)
Will this TY send the much needed pulse into Bay ???
Answer remains uncertain ……:(:(

Looks like typhoon hagupit surprised the forecasts and turned super typhoon, and this strength forecasted to retain till phillipines just like ‘super typhoon haiyan-2013″. So Phillipines need to take emergency precautionary measurements.

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It has become CAT5 now and expected to maintain its intensity till nearing Philippines.
The steering winds are taking the system in WNW direction, it is expected to reach Philippines by 09th.
Wind speed expected to be around 150 knots at that time..

till yesterday it was said to be Cat 4 and when nearing Philippines it will weaken to Cat 2, but today all the way long the prediction is Cat 5 till Philippines, so there is a good chance to pulp in more stronger easterlies towards bay of bengal…

Still ECMWF is not expecting that weakness in ridge to change steering and shift north ,,,It expects another ridge from China taking the lead role after 2 days , and that time as per ECMWF , it would be entering the SSE periphery of the new ridge , and take a westward course , but I ll wait for the latest ECMWF …
Must not have a change I guess

the steering winds are forecasted to be changing to South Westerly, hence it may push the system once it nears the land towards N and then make it weaken as it has to face strong dry air and VWS around 100 knots north of STR at around 21N.

Later this month, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mark III is expected to lift off for the first time from India’s spaceport at Sriharikota on an experimental flight that will assess the rocket’s performance as it hurtles through the atmosphere to reach speeds many times that of sound. When operational, the GSLV Mark III will be the Indian Space Research Organisation’s most powerful rocket, capable of putting four-tonne communication satellites into orbit, almost double the capacity of the current GSLV. The Mark III will weigh about 640 tonnes at launch, about 50 per cent heavier than the GSLV.

Ther is some alteration happened ,now the ridge axis is close to the system. Ecmwf sticking with westerly track as another ridge taking over .. gfs moving it along the current influencing ridge till the end.

Till 08th it has very good chance to match haiyan speed…
It has strong steering winds, which will also increase the speed of the movement..
If the moving speed increases, then hagupit can reach Philippines before scheduled date and then it can cross the coast with high intensity.

earlier it was schedule to near the coast by 09th only, i could see the steering winds increasing the speed of the movement, if it is going to cross before 08th, then this could happen, otherwise no chance of crossing the coast.

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This is also the highest number of transponders packed into an Indian spacecraft so far.

I was hinting this early LF of system just 40 minutes back to selvan, if it is early landfall then it is good to the system and also for us in Bay. If it has delayed till 09th, then the ACC would have started dominating the space over west pacific and spoiled the system.

The suddend change in early LF, is due to strengthening of steering winds, so this is going to benefit us in Bay also.
This system may make another LF over Gulf of Thailand by 11th.

parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam Selvan Fun • 39 minutes ago
Till 08th it has very good chance to match haiyan speed…
It has strong steering winds, which will also increase the speed of the movement..
If the moving speed increases, then hagupit can reach Philippines before scheduled date and then it can cross the coast with high intensity.

This hurricane at Phillipines actually gives a great breathing for bay to develop easterlies soon as already a low is taking place in south andaman sea. There will be 2 systems in bay of bengal back and forth within few days.

by saturday chennai & pockets of tamil nadu we can see a total change in weather conditions. we can expect a long wet spell.

GFS update at 06.00AM will confirm on Hagupit latest trend, whether GFS follows ECMWF or it has its own prediction.
GFS were saying that there is no LF and showing as fast weakening when nearing the coast on 09th, that created doubt in my mind, but ECMWF was saying LF by 07th itself and crossing the coast, hence i feel that GFS will update in line with ECMWF today afternoon.

TN has another chance after 18th, there is going to be a system formation in west pacific by 14th or 15th, this will move towards bay of bengal by 19th, we might has precipitation chance from 20th, will it develop into a cyclone, that is the question as of now.
Lets wait and see…

its just a trough of low so its chances for developing into LPA is less only but wait for next week some action is awaiting just like your vijay style “i am waiting” says ashoba a very severe cyclonic storm

back to back system in pacific ocean lets see which gets materialize in bay i think hagupit going to enhance the easterlies there by creating a platform for the system to develop in bay lets see what happens