Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

Article excerpt

If next month produces a big Republican year, with the GOP
gaining control of the Senate and expanding its majority in the
House, it will say little or nothing about 2016, when a presidential
electorate and a very different Senate class combine to create the
makings of a substantially good Democratic year.

But if the GOP fails to capture the Senate this year, 2016 could
turn into an unmitigated disaster for the party. And for that
reason, Republicans are under extremely heavy pressure to take back
the Senate in November.

Four years ago, a Republican wave swept across much of the
country (but not the West Coast), handing over control of the House
and giving the GOP six more Senate seats. But the fact the party
kicked away a handful of Senate seats -- in Delaware, Colorado and
Nevada -- was disappointing and discouraging to GOP contributors who
thought the party had a chance to win back the Senate.

Two years later, Republicans entered the cycle needing to net
four Senate seats (three if President Barack Obama failed to win a
second term) and filled with optimism about reclaiming the Senate.
As spring approached, the map looked good for the GOP and dangerous
for Democrats.

After all, Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson and North Dakota Democrat
Kent Conrad were retiring, and given each of their state's
fundamentals and the president's weak standing, both appeared to be
likely Republican takeovers. And in Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill
was easy pickings, as long as the GOP didn't nominate some
knucklehead.

Even before Memorial Day arrived, Republicans seemed to have at
least three other good takeover opportunities, in Montana against
Sen. Jon Tester, and in open seats in Wisconsin and Virginia.

Yes, two GOP incumbents were at risk, in Massachusetts and
Nevada, but Senate control looked promising for the party.

But when November rolled around, Democrats not only kept control
of the Senate, they actually gained two more seats, making it that
much more difficult for the GOP to take over the chamber this cycle.
And many Republican donors who deluded themselves into believing
Mitt Romney had a strong chance to win the White House and that GOP
control of the Senate was within reach felt deflated and misled. …