Commentary and Tracking of a Portfolio of Stocks using approach from "The Little Book that Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt aka Magic Formula Investing

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Weekend Update 9/17/16

Weekend Update

Good morning everyone. Finely feels like fall, 50 degrees outside this morning. I have my Radio Swiss Classic
playing and a fresh cup of coffee. All is well with the world.

I see that the Iphone 7 went on sale yesterday. Obviously, I should have bought AAPL when it was cheap on the list in low 90s in May. I am pretty happy with my iPhone 6, not convinced I am ready to give up the headphone jack. But given Samsung's problems, I am more ready to consider the 7 than I was a month ago.

There is so much noise around the markets, hard to know what to do. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash, stay with MFI and dividend stocks. I did sell my SDS on Monday at a slight loss. I am simply never good at timing these things, although I really viewed SDS as a hedge. But I am mentally just more comfortable having my hedge/insurance being strictly cash.

MFI Select

It was a decent week here, made up a bit of the ground I had given up recently. Had great news from DEPO (Depomed (DEPO) Stock Soars Amid Sale Speculation), so they are now up 59% for me. It was weird, the stock is now north of $24. Yesterday I could have sold March 28 calls for $2. That seemed very tempting. I guess I do not see how the sale price goes north of $30.

11/15/2015

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct
Gain

R3K
Gain

LCI

$34.01

$32.58

$0.00

-4.2%

6.0%

SAVE

$34.48

$37.23

$0.00

8.0%

6.0%

PPC

$18.98

$20.80

$2.75

24.1%

6.0%

VEC

$23.60

$27.03

$0.00

14.5%

6.0%

VNCE

$3.99

$6.28

$0.00

57.4%

6.0%

Totals

20.0%

6.0%

2/1/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct
Gain

R3K Gain

VEC

$19.64

$27.03

$0.00

37.6%

12.8%

QCOM

$45.18

$62.99

$1.54

42.8%

12.8%

PERI

$2.45

$1.25

$0.00

-49.0%

12.8%

DEPO

$15.34

$24.34

$0.00

58.7%

12.8%

TDC

$24.02

$29.63

$0.00

23.4%

12.8%

Totals

22.7%

12.8%

5/6/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct
Gain

R3K Gain

BRCD

$7.97

$8.95

$0.11

13.6%

5.8%

CBI

$37.82

$27.42

$0.00

-27.5%

5.8%

HSII

$18.51

$18.62

$0.13

1.3%

5.8%

RHI

$38.51

$37.16

$0.44

-2.4%

5.8%

UTHR

$107.99

$123.31

$0.00

14.2%

5.8%

Totals

-0.2%

5.8%

8/15/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct
Gain

R3K Gain

CSCO

$31.20

$30.84

$0.00

-1.2%

-1.8%

GNC

$19.79

$20.53

$0.19

4.7%

-1.8%

VLO

$54.73

$56.73

$0.00

3.7%

-1.8%

MSGN

$16.68

$18.13

$0.00

8.7%

-1.8%

GILD

$79.33

$78.80

$0.47

-0.1%

-1.8%

Totals

3.2%

-1.8%

Category/Tranche

August

November

February

May

Total

Initial Investment

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

100,000

Current Tranche

3.2%

20.0%

22.7%

-0.2%

12.7%

Previous Tranche

2.8%

69.4%

-14.3%

-25.2%

11.2%

Tranche -2

11.2%

14.2%

8.5%

18.3%

13.0%

Tranche -3

41.4%

43.7%

78.3%

33.0%

49.1%

Tranche -4

14.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

3.5%

MFI Overall Gain

90.3%

233.7%

103.3%

17.4%

111.2%

Current Balance

47,569

83,413

50,832

29,354

211,168

R3K Current Tranche

-1.8%

6.0%

12.8%

5.8%

5.7%

R3K Overall Gain

64.0%

67.2%

50.3%

33.0%

54.4%

R3K Balance

41,779

41,809

37,570

33,238

154,395

Annualized IRR

17.0%

36.9%

21.6%

4.9%

21.4%

Looking at my tranches and stocks, here are some observations:

SAVE has really pulled back. It was around $49 and now is $37. I think if it is on the list and around $37 I may have to consider another year. I assume concerns about Zika are the driver. I suspect that will be shorter term.

PPC has also come down a lot, it was around $25 and now $20.80. I assume that chicken prices have been steady/falling... seems to be impacting CALM as well. I think over longer term, these are both good types of stocks to own. Prices will fluctuate.

VEC seems to have stabilized after shock prior week. I will have to think hard about whether to sell in November.

QCOM has been great for me. That price in the mid forties in February was a classic "the market sometimes just goes nuts". A 43% gain on a large cap like QCOM is amazing.

One thing I know many have noted... this list just does not change very much. I feel if I went back and pulled my very first list that 7 or 8 names would be the same.

Dividend Stocks and Warrants

Div and Warrants

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct
Gain

Pct Gain
Last Week

June 1
2016

BAC-WTA

$4.90

$4.58

$0.00

-6.5%

-1.2%

-20.6%

AOD

$7.64

$7.56

$1.51

18.7%

20.2%

17.1%

JQC

$7.82

$8.31

$0.50

12.6%

12.7%

8.4%

CSQ

$9.08

$10.30

$2.03

35.9%

36.1%

30.5%

DSL

$18.42

$18.70

$0.59

4.7%

5.5%

0.0%

TGONF

$10.24

$10.89

$1.69

22.9%

23.3%

12.5%

HIG-WT

$21.24

$36.90

$0.00

73.8%

73.8%

75.7%

O

$23.83

$64.47

$18.89

249.8%

251.1%

249.0%

OIBAX

$5.06

$5.89

$2.27

61.3%

62.4%

58.1%

SJT

$8.75

$5.33

$0.23

-36.4%

-31.6%

-14.4%

GLDI

$10.68

$10.39

$0.45

1.5%

2.7%

0.0%

Totals

12.3%

14.5%

9.0%

Not exactly a stellar week here. SJT has really dropped in past month or so. I just looked and since June it has dropped $2. Then BAC is giving a lot back as the probability of a rate hike next week has diminished.

Top Holdings

I have not shared a table of top holdings in quite a while. Many of largest holdings are dividend stocks as those have often been buy and hold. MFI stocks come and go.

Stock

Avg Cost

Current Price

Dividends

Gain per Share

Pct Gain

Pct of Portfolio

CSQ

9.08

10.30

2.03

3.26

35.9%

5.7%

AOD

7.64

7.56

1.51

1.43

18.7%

5.0%

BAC-WTA

4.21

4.58

-

0.37

8.7%

4.5%

IILG

15.37

16.47

0.25

1.35

8.8%

4.4%

VEC

21.97

27.03

-

5.06

23.0%

3.6%

PPC

20.31

20.80

2.75

3.24

16.0%

3.4%

VIAB

43.07

37.00

0.44

(5.63)

-13.1%

3.4%

QCOM

49.49

62.99

1.79

15.29

30.9%

3.1%

CSCO

27.46

30.84

0.96

4.34

15.8%

3.0%

EMG

3.87

3.38

-

(0.49)

-12.7%

2.8%

SPCB

4.02

3.33

-

(0.69)

-17.1%

2.7%

WLDN

8.64

16.90

-

8.26

95.6%

2.5%

SJT

8.75

5.33

0.23

(3.19)

-36.4%

2.5%

JQC

7.82

8.31

0.50

0.99

12.6%

2.4%

TGONF

10.24

10.89

1.69

2.34

22.9%

2.4%

GNC

19.88

20.53

0.20

0.85

4.3%

2.4%

DSL

18.42

18.70

0.59

0.87

4.7%

2.1%

GLDI

10.68

10.39

0.45

0.16

1.5%

2.1%

SAVE

34.48

37.23

-

2.75

8.0%

2.0%

SBRA

23.85

23.30

-

(0.55)

-2.3%

1.9%

BBY

30.31

38.00

1.29

8.98

29.6%

1.9%

LCI

34.01

32.58

-

(1.43)

-4.2%

1.8%

DEPO

15.34

24.34

-

9.00

58.7%

1.6%

HPQ

12.10

14.53

0.25

2.68

22.1%

1.6%

CA

27.30

31.95

1.01

5.66

20.7%

1.6%

SBRA is a new one to the list. I have been building a position in this healthcare REIT and at start of 2017 will make it part of my dividend portfolio (too lazy to make addition now!)