Why CERA Thinks Peak Oil Is Total BS

Controversial research group Cambridge Energy Research Associates is out with yet another anti-peak oil report, arguing that supply will keep its glide path higher until 2030.

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The controversy surrounding future oil supply can be divided into two components: a determination of the factors that will drive the much-debated future of oil supply and then, longer term, a consideration of consequences and the actions required when oil supply eventually plateaus. IHS CERA identifies a number of critical observations at the core of this analysis of future supply:

Supply evolution through 2030 is not a question of resource availability.

IHS CERA projects growth of productive capacity through 2030, with no peak evident.

There is no unique picture of the course of future of supply: we are dealing with a complex, multicomponent system.