2007-05-10

ANA vs Taliban

Here are some extremely interesting numbers. In October 2001, the strength of the Northern Alliance and Taliban was estimated at 11,000 and 45,000 respectively. As we all know, as soon as US air power was added to that equation, the smaller force totally and utterly decimated the larger force in 2 months flat. It may have been won even sooner if the Northern Alliance had actually tried advancing earlier, and if the US had bombed the frontlines earlier. But we'll never know for sure.

And now the Afghan National Army has reached 46,177. Using the same ratio, even if the Taliban had 45/11*46k = 188,000 soldiers, they would be flattened in 2 months, just with US air power added, ie totally ignoring the 27k US troops and 24k NATO troops that are present in Afghanistan.

According to the Taliban themselves, they have 12,000 fighters. That leaves them at 1/15 the strength they need in order to get to the stage where they can potentially last 2 months before being flattened. It is totally incredible that people all over the world can look at these figures and actually believe, REALLY BELIEVE, that the Taliban is something other than a big joke and that this is a serious war that is being fought, and actually wonder who will win. Meanwhile the US has skilfully managed its resources so that it has a mere 27k forces in the country. Compare that to 38k in South Korea where no-one is even pretending to fight (although a state of war technically still exists), and 69k in Germany, 47k in Japan where not only is there no war, there isn't even an enemy.