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Blow To Nuclear Deal Forces Opec Output Reappraisal

The withdrawal of the US from the Iranian nuclear deal (MEES, 11 May) has major ramifications for the ongoing Opec+ production agreement. Until this week Opec’s dominant narrative was that despite progress, the market remained unbalanced, raising the prospect of an extension beyond end-2018. But with the possibility of Iranian output falling as buyers cut back this narrative is swiftly changing.

MARKET STABILITY PARAMOUNT

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih took to Twitter “to confirm our commitment to oil market stability,” pledging to “work closely with major Opec, non-Opec producers & with key consumers to mitigate the effects of any supply shortages.” That certainly doesn’t mean an easing of production limitations is guaranteed, but it paves the way for such an outcome.

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