Independent senators will soon have the numbers to control the Upper House. What happens next?

Honestly, no one really knows. But isn’t it going to be interesting to find out?

Apologies for luring you into reading this column on the pretext that it has all – or even some – of the answer. If you keep reading, it does delve into some semi-wild speculation, but before we get to the juicy bits, let’s review what we know so far.

At some point in the near-ish future – depending, that is, on how long it takes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to settle on the six Quebeckers he deems suitable to slot into those six still-empty Senate seats – Canada’s upper house will be operating at full capacity for the first time since 2012.

It will also be the first time since Confederation that the plurality of those seats – 41, to be precise — will be filled by senators not aligned with a traditional party caucus.

More crucially, it seems, at least according to some of the more arch-traditionalist denizens and observers of the red chamber, this lack of partisan affiliation means most of those 41 senators can’t be neatly sorted, Hogwarts-style, into one of the two standard divisions, Government and Opposition. That appears to be sending some of them – the arch-traditionalists, that is, not the non-affiliated – into a bit of an existential tizzy.

Last Friday, Conservative Sen. Linda Frum suggested, via Twitter, that “Liberals” were “trying to change the rules to eliminate the existence of an Official Opposition.”

As of right now, the Senate Liberal caucus ranks third in the standings with just 21 seats, compared to 40 for the Conservatives, while just three senators are formally affiliated with the Liberal government – Sen. Peter Harder, who serves as its representative, and his deputies, Sen. Grant Mitchell and Sen. Diane Bellemare, who formerly sat with the Senate Liberal and Conservative caucuses, respectively.

Given those numbers, it’s clear that neither the Liberal government nor the Senate Liberal caucus are in any position to rewrite any Senate rules without support from non-Liberals.

What seems to be worrying Sen. Frum, among others, is the not-unreasonable fear that those non-affiliated senators will soon use their plurality to forcibly level the parliamentary playing field to get what they, collectively, see as their fair share of committee seats, speaking slots, research money and other perks normally enjoyed only by recognized party caucuses.

Which, to be fair, wasn’t seen as a particularly controversial restriction until relatively recently, as up until last June, there were rarely more than half a dozen officially independent senators on the roster at any given time.

Now, however, there are 21 and counting, with 15 more in the queue to be sworn in within the next few days, and the final six expected to arrive within weeks, if not days.

Not all are recent appointees – many were initially assigned to sit with one of the two existing caucuses – or even from the now extinct post-merger gaggle of Progressive Conservative loyalists – that they subsequently left, either under their own power or as a result of expulsion.

And while they may, as individuals, hail from all points of the ideological and policy spectrum, to a man and woman, they seem keen – impatient, even — to play an active role in the day-to-day deliberations and operations of the chamber and its committees.

That’s why they’re agitating to change the rules – to “eliminate” the big-O Official in Official Opposition so that each and every senator – save Harder, Bellemare and Mitchell, presumably – has an equal opportunity to raise questions, suggest changes and otherwise critically examine proposed legislation, as well as take a closer look into pressing or overlooked public policy questions.

It’s easy to see why this might be difficult for some senators to accept, particularly those within the Conservative caucus, many of whom not only relish the role of serving as Official Opposition, but privately believe themselves to be the only true opposition party in the Senate, quietly yet steadfastly skeptical that either the Senate Liberals or the new appointees are truly independent from the government.

The math, however, is not on the Conservatives’ side.

Barring a major shift in chamber alliances, by the end of the current Parliament, the non-aligned senators will hold a straight majority that will allow them make whatever changes to the rules that they, collectively, see fit without the support of either old-school caucuses.

Given that possibility, it might be wise for both the Conservatives and Liberals to work with their new colleagues towards a system that fits for non-aligned and party-affiliated senators alike.

If it helps, they might want to think of it as not so much as losing “official” opposition status, but boosting the combined power of the Senate to hold the government to account.

Given the alternative, it’s hard to see how Her Majesty wouldn’t approve.

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