The warning, which was posted on The Hill, seemed designed to cheer conservatives distraught by Obamcare’s enrollment numbers. It began by announcing that next year, “premiums will double in some parts of the country. The sticker shock will likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.”

Where did the reporter get her information? The story is based on interviews with “health insurance officials.”

Why would they issue such dire predictions? Perhaps they are trying to soften us up so that when insurance rates rise by “only” 7% to 10%, we’ll be surprised and grateful? (This is just a thought.)

The truth is that there is absolutely no reason to believe the same old, same old, fear-mongers who claim that in 2015, rates will spiral “by 200% to 300%.”

My guess is that, in most states, rates will rise by no more than 2% to 4%. Meanwhile, government subsidies will climb to cover those increases for most who buy policies inside the Exchanges. (This year 80% of shoppers who purchased insurance in the state marketplaces received tax credits to help with premiums.) Folks who purchase coverage off-Exchange won’t receive subsidies, but carriers selling policies to individuals outside the government’s online marketplaces will have to compete with prices inside the Exchanges.

Why am I so optimistic?

The Underlying Cost of Medical Care Is Slowing

Americans have become so accustomed to hearing about “runaway health care inflation” that most do not realize that we have finally “broken the curve” of rising health care costs.

By contrast, “for the past three years, health care cost growth has dramatically slowed and is just about even with growth in the economy. Some of this is due to lingering effects of the recession in 2008,” he added. “But a part of it is undoubtedly due to the ACA.”

“The key for the future is not to eradicate premium increases entirely,” Emanuel adds. The goal “is to make sure [that these increases] aren’t Excessive.”

He stresses that there is still much to be done to rein in healthcare spending. But for the moment “the exchanges are stable,” says Emanuel. “Premiums are likely to rise a little but not excessively.”

If you don’t believe Emanuel and Altman, take a look at the graph below, comparing outlays for all medical services (the orange line) to the PCE (personal consumption expenditures–the blue line) from 2009 to 2014. As you can see annual spending on healthcare services is now growing by well under 1% a year. (For a larger version of the graph, click on the link above.)

Bloomberg News used the graph earlier this week, to illustrate a story that lays out some critical and little-known facts:

We always knew that people in their 50s and 60s would join the Exchanges first. Healthy 20-somethings and 30-somethings who rarely see a doctor would be in no rush to sign up. Why begin paying premiums before you have to?