Texas lawmakers worry about impact of Mexican presidential election on drug war

Mexican presidential election

By GARY MARTIN and JASON BUCH

U.S. officials are watching Mexico’s presidential candidates to determine whether an incoming administration will shift the direction of President Felipe Calderón‘s war against the violent drug cartels.

It’s likely some change will occur because Calderón’s party candidate is trailing in the polls.

But all of those seeking the presidency have said they want to tone down the confrontation between the narcos and the government that has left 50,000 dead since 2006.

Much of the violence has occurred across the U.S.-Mexico border from American cities, and U.S. border lawmakers are seeking hints that the next president will continue to press the cartels.

“I’m hopeful there is no change in policy, but obviously this is an internal decision that will be made by the Mexican government, the Mexican people, but it’s not without some impact on Texas and the rest of the country,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

With the July 1 election day approaching, the tone of the campaign has ramped up with charges that include hints of U.S. intervention, which the State Department promptly denied.

“I categorically reject any charges of interference in Mexico’s politics,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said. “We are looking for in Mexico what we look for in all cases of democratic elections: free, fair, transparent.”

Also watching closely are U.S. law enforcement agencies that work with Mexican counterparts against trafficking.

One former U.S. official said the possibility is very real for a shift in direction when Calderón leaves office.

“Are we going to see the same type of Calderón initiative in Mexico, with all the murders that have occurred? I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think there is going to be some relaxing of what’s going on,” said Phil Jordan, former director of the Drug Enforcement Administration‘s intelligence center in El Paso.

The cartels are responsible for 90 percent of the illegal drugs that enter the United States, according to the DEA.

The importance of the anti-narcotics efforts in Mexico has prompted Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. lawmakers to meet with the three major candidates.

Cuellar’s relationship and appearances with Peña Nieto have garnered newspaper headlines south of the border, even though the Laredo lawmaker said he has not “endorsed” a candidate in the Mexican presidential race.

Cuellar also said he has been assured by the candidates or their representatives that the fight will continue.

But even though a new Mexican president may shift direction of policies, as neighbors and trading partners, the two countries remain “interdependent,” said Geronimo Gutierrez, managing director of North American Development Bank and former interior minister under Calderón.

“Whoever wins, if he or she does not know, will find out that reality imposes itself in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. The next administration will find itself in a position where it needs to have the most conservative and positive relationship with the U.S. possible,” Gutierrez said.

The military campaign launched by Calderón was aided in part by the United States, which under President George W. Bush agreed to provide $1.4 billion in military hardware and helicopters to fight the cartels.

That agreement, known as the Merida Initiative, remains in effect, with programs under way to help Mexico revamp its judicial system and better train military and law enforcement.

Gutierrez said Merida “shows a more clear commitment to the concept of shared responsibilities on the part of both governments.”

“I think it’s a fair assessment to say that security agencies in Mexico and the U.S. feel more comfortable working together now than 10 years ago or 20 years ago,” Gutierrez said.

Not that there have not been hiccups in the bilateral relationship.

Carlos Pascual, U.S. ambassador to Mexico, was removed after diplomatic cables were made public that aired his doubts that the Mexican government could effectively fight the cartels.

And the Calderón administration has seen its share of public corruption scandals.

Meanwhile, the escalating violence in Mexico is cause for concern among U.S. lawmakers, not just the Mexican presidential candidates.

Some senators, while continuing to support military action in Mexico, also back alternative measures to curb American consumption to reduce the violence.

“Tragically, just across the U.S. border in Mexico, more than 50,000 people have been killed in drug-related violence over the past five years,” she said in announcing the proposed public awareness campaign.