Two years ago, as 2003 was winding down, Boston’s political and law-enforcement leaders were crowing over their defeat of the homicide problem. After two years with troubling annual tallies in the 60s, the murder count had dropped back to 1996–2000 levels, when 35 to 40 had been the norm. Shootings became a non-issue, politically and in the media. When Boston’s police commissioner, Paul Evans, left for foggier pastures in England, the consensus was that the top concerns awaiting his replacement would be officer morale, security for the Democratic National Convention, and the recent uptick in robberies; a fourth issue, crowd control, was added after the February 1, 2004, post–Super Bowl debacle. In retrospect, though, the city’s victory over homicide was Boston’s version of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished.”

As the Phoenix cautioned at the time, 2003 was a pivotal year in crime, as a new cycle of youth-related violence began its current surge. That surge has seen 38 teenagers killed in the last two years.

City and law-enforcement officials are now trying to find some new version of the early 1990s’ “Boston Miracle,” when new law-enforcement and community-outreach strategies made the streets safe again. We’ll need one. Because all signs indicate that this wave of violence is still on the rise.

Amid a host of reasons why Boston’s bloodshed may continue, three stand out. Mayor Menino, Police Commissioner Kathleen O’Toole, and others know one of them — and they’ve known it for several years. The 2000 US Census counted 32,553 Boston residents age 10 to 14, up 22 percent from 1990. Count forward: they are now in their late teens. They were born in the middle of the crisis that preceded the “Boston Miracle” and have been disproportionately exposed to every risk factor identified in criminal-justice research. Add to that a homicide squad with a clearance rate of less than 30 percent, and a police department consistently losing the community’s trust (not helped by an administration that thinks fighting T-shirts will restore that trust), and you’ve got a recipe for destruction.

Every Chance to FailHere’s a brief recap of what was happening in inner-city Boston in the late 1980s: a crack-cocaine epidemic raged, bringing with it a surge of wrecked lives and gang violence. In response, the state’s incarceration rate doubled, primarily from the jailing of young men — which continued and even increased for years after the drug use and violence waned.

As a result, a disproportionate number of the children born in Boston in the mid-to-late ’80s spent time in single-parent households or in state custody. In the early and mid ’90s they attended failing Boston schools; when they reached middle and high school, national Republicans and their own governor Mitt Romney yanked away money for tutors, after-school programs, and summer jobs. Just as they approached the end of high school, the state slapped down the new MCAS requirement that, as predicted, drove up their dropout rate. When they eventually went looking for work, they discovered that the Boston area had shed nearly 4000 manufacturing jobs, 5500 retail jobs, 5500 government jobs, and 3000 nonprofessional service-sector jobs in 2002 alone, according to the Boston Redevelopment Authority.

Blues and blood Something is rotten in Beantown — and the stench is emanating from the local branch of the Department of Justice.

The war over peace In the early infancy of this five-week-old year, Boston has been rocked by four homicides and 10 non-fatal shootings. By the time this goes to print, there may well be more.

The overtime game The problems haunting the Boston Police Department’s homicide unit — low arrest rates, cases rejected by juries, and exonerations of wrongfully convicted men — did not occur in a vacuum.

Streets of sorrow Two years ago, in one of the most concentrated bursts of deadly violence Boston had seen in years, nine victims were killed in 20 days.

Righting a staggering wrong US Attorney Michael J. Sullivan should launch an investigation into how that department managed to help convict the wrong man in the 1997 shooting of a Boston cop.

O’Toole Go Bragh The carnage of the past week and a half has made a gruesome mockery of the Boston Police Department.

Worst homicide squad in America Boston was riveted last week by a paralyzed little girl, Kai Leigh Harriott, who publicly forgave the man who fired the shot that put her in a wheelchair.

Shades of Keeler The storied career of Sergeant Detective Daniel M. “Mr. Homicide” Keeler may finally be at an end.

Bo-ston Homicides If the Boston Police Department thinks the Boston Phoenix has been tough on its homicide squad, wait until they get a load of Robert “Bo” Dietl.

Does Boston hate the BPD? When Kathleen O’Toole served as Boston police commissioner, from early 2004 through mid 2006, she and Mayor Thomas Menino seemed in constant denial of the spiraling violence and shocking police scandals that were roiling the city.

MRS. WARREN GOES TO WASHINGTON | March 21, 2013 Elizabeth Warren was the only senator on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, aside from the chair and ranking minority, to show up at last Thursday's hearing on indexing the minimum wage to inflation.

MARCH MADNESS | March 12, 2013 It's no surprise that the coming weekend's Saint Patrick's Day celebrations have become politically charged, given the extraordinary convergence of electoral events visiting South Boston.

LABOR'S LOVE LOST | March 08, 2013 Steve Lynch is winning back much of the union support that left him in 2009.

AFTER MARKEY, GET SET, GO | February 20, 2013 It's a matter of political decorum: when an officeholder is running for higher office, you wait until the election has been won before publicly coveting the resulting vacancy.