(09-12-2014 08:50 PM)Stuffed_Assumption_Meringue Wrote: I don't remember where it was said and I don't feel like going to look for a specific post in which it was mentioned. This is the most active of the various threads related to this topic so why the fuck not? Right?

Free: Genuine question, not digging. How do you lay odds or make a probabilistic prediction on something that's either never happened or you can't find hard data on what instances of it have happened?

If all you have to work with is anecdotal evidence, then it's a matter of the credibility of that said evidence, and how much of it is consistent.

In the O'Hare incident, for example, if all the witnesses described everything virtually identical, I would dismiss it in a heartbeat. That's a hoax. They collaborated. Been down that road before. End of discussion.

But since there were some discrepancies in such things as the height of the UFO from the ground, whether they could see lights or not, whether the object resembled a classic saucer or a sphere, that is when you sit up and take notice.

Investigating it closely shows that from a certain vantage point, it would look like a sphere, while from another it would look like a classic saucer. One person closer would see lights, while another more distant would not. Those very close or almost underneath could only wildly gestimate the height, while those further away seemed to pretty much agree on the height of the object from the ground.

This type of information acts as a triangulation equation, with the end result as per Occam's Razor being, "12 persons experienced with aircraft seen an aircraft that they could not identify."

Since nothing is absolute, but the probability is very high that they seen an aircraft, I give it a rating of 90%, leaving 10% as an error of margin, and I am being generous with the 10%. It's not conclusive, but it's good enough to move on to the next phase and postulate other possibilities.

Was it an alien craft? I do not know.
Could it have been an alien craft? Yes.
Could it have been a human craft? Yes.

So why do I give a higher chance of it being an alien craft than a human craft?

For one thing, 12 witnesses who are experienced with human craft could not identify that craft as originating with any known human design. These witnesses included pilots, aircraft mechanics, and other aircraft service personnel, all of who are intimately familiar with aircraft.

For another thing, many of the witnesses described the performance of the aircraft as vastly exceeding the capabilities of anything known to them. The performance of the craft was said to be "mind blowing."

Also, the reports of this incident in the FAA official records had been intentionally hidden, and witnesses reported that they had better not speak of the incident or risk their jobs. It required a Freedom of Information Act ruling to get the FAA to reluctantly hand over access to the records, which subsequently revealed that they did indeed try to hush it up.

This type of behavior by the FAA is consistent with UFO reports. Further invstigation reveals that they are not hushing it up as a means of some conspiracy to deny people the truth, but rather for the mundane reason that they just don't want the grief or embarrassment of not being able to explain it.

I mean seriously. If you were managing a major airport would you go on the news and says something like, "Yeah, there was a UFO hanging around here today, but nobody could do anything about it, so we just waited for it to leave?'

Who does that? Nobody does that. People don't have the guts to do that.

Once you understand the intricacies involved with these investigations, you begin to be able to assign a credibility gauge to each and every aspect. None of it will ever prove anything, mind you. The best that can ever be done is to arrive at the most likely explanation after considering all factors.

But sometimes the most likely explanation is not what people want to hear. If it doesn't conform to their known reality, it just doesn't work for them.

It's like Negative Mass. It works perfectly with math, but logically it's one big mind fuck.

Edited Note:

I perfectly understand the need for direct physical evidence of aliens to completely qualify their existence, as there is no greater proof than the aliens themselves. But not all things require that kind of evidence.

However, when carefully studied, the anecdotal evidence concerning UFOs and aliens is actually so overwhelming that it really cannot be compared to anything else. I do not view UFOs or aliens from a "paranormal" point of view, as many here do.

I see aliens as possibly being as simply another animal that either evolved here right on earth, or from another solar system. I find absolutely nothing "extraordinary" about it whatsoever. In fact, I find it no more extraordinary than if we were to discover another species of animal right here on earth.

Considering what we know about the vastness of the universe, I believe it takes a very narrow-minded person to think that we humans are the only intelligent life in this universe. Personally, I find it virtually unconscionable to think we are alone.

When we have such high-profile witnesses- even in my own country our Minister of Defense emphatically claims the reality of UFOs and aliens- telling us that they exist, then do we really need a US president to make a statement about it? We have the Mexican Government, FBI, astronauts, pilots, military personnel, high-ranking politicians, scientists, and literally thousands of exceptionally credible persons making positive claims of the existence of alien controlled aircraft.

So why do we need a UFO landing on the White House lawn? We simply don't. In fact, anything like that is ridiculous. The evidence has been there for a very long time, and my experience investigating this subject is exceptionally extensive.

I have spoken to military personnel, actual pilots. The UFO thing is far more a grave concern than many of you realize. The problem is not in proving their existence, but rather figuring out what they want and why they are here. They won't come knocking on our door with any gifts for us anytime soon.

My honest response is this
They haven't yet found one, or even captured it for a moment to say yes it exists.
Lets say for a moment if it was real i don't wish harm upon it but there are ways to physically show its alive and thriving.
Some claim they found evidence but if it was "Real" evidence wouldn't we know something about it? anything at all... it's a possibility our world is huge, however iv'e become very doubtful over the possibility of it existing.