The 2012 decline also hit government, where budgetary and labor reforms in places like Wisconsin and Tennessee have taken hold. The inimitable Mike Antonucci, writing at the Education Intelligence Agency, picked apart the numbers to unravel 10 interesting observations, including this pair of gems:

9) If the trends recorded since 2000 continue, by 2051 there will be 8 million union members in the United States – 6.6% of the total workforce – and they will all work for the government.

While Colorado teachers are blessed with the freedom to decide whether to join or to pay fees to a union, in many of the larger districts the option to exit the union is limited by various revocation (opt-out) periods. In some cases, it’s easier to get out of a cell phone contract than to get out of the union. Show up at the union office during a two-week window at the busiest time of the school year and fill out the forms, maybe even get an interrogation.

Well, two very similar proposals have been introduced under the Golden Dome this year, both by freshman legislators: Senate Bill 17 and Senate Bill 141. Insofar as either one restores this option to teachers, without imposing a requirement that school districts serve as collection agents for organized labor, they represent a worthy step forward on behalf of free association.

If Colorado and other states were to adopt such a policy, one must wonder what it would mean for Antonucci’s prediction of future trends. To serve an empowered generation of younger teachers and maintain its membership rolls, just how much would organizations like CEA have to adapt themselves? Given the composition of political power, we may not begin to find an answer this legislative session. But the long-term trends are hard to deny.