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NFL Picks

NFL Betting: Sharps Still In Love With San Diego Chargers

They beat the NFL odds in Week 1, so why not keep pounding the San Diego Chargers? They're the sharp pick for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

You can pretty much book the San Diego Chargers (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) for the playoffs now. Okay, maybe that's a stretch. The Chargers did lose their season opener, 33-27 in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs (–6.5 at home), in a classic come-from-ahead performance. But if you look past wins and losses, San Diego was the better team last Sunday. Football Outsiders have the Bolts at No. 10 overall on their Week 1 efficiency charts, five spots ahead of K.C.

Once again, the sharps were right. They loaded up on San Diego last week, and according to our expanded consensus reports, they're doubling down for Week 2. The Chargers are 3-point home faves on the NFL odds board for Sunday's game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they're pulling in the biggest average bets at $336 a pop. High rollers, baby.

Sore ThumbWe have to take a closer look at these numbers, though. The Jaguars are pulling in 63 percent of bettors as we go to press, after receiving 96-percent support in very early action. Isn't early money supposed to be sharp money? That's the rule of thumb. Maybe the wiseguys were hoping to get San Diego down to –2.5 before bringing out the big guns.

It didn't quite happen that way. In fact, a handful of books (BetOnline among them) opened the Chargers at –2.5, then quickly moved to –3. And at some locations (including Heritage), the Bolts were up to –3.5 before settling back down. Our consensus snapshots didn't pick it up, but there was a point Monday afternoon where San Diego saw a surge in action before the needle moved back toward Jacksonville.

Zero PrincesStill with us? Good. Bet tracking isn't the sexiest part of making NFL betting picks. But in the end, money talks, and the average bet on Jacksonville is only $66. Our expanded survey also shows four $1000-plus bets on the Chargers to just two on the Jags. This data is pure gold. Well, maybe 14-karat gold, but gold nonetheless. It allows us to make informed betting choices.

Speaking of data, FiveThirtyEight project the Bolts to win Sunday's game 66 percent of the time, assigning them an Elo-based point spread of –4.5. The Jaguars have their charms, but Football Outsiders weren't impressed with their 27-23 loss to the Green Bay Packers (–3.5 away) in Week 1, putting Jacksonville at No. 23 on their efficiency charts.

But what about that season-ending injury to Chargers WR Keenan Allen (knee)? Yeah, that's bad news for the Bolts, but the Jaguars won't have CB Prince Amukamara (hamstring), either. Nor will RB Chris Ivory (illness) make the trip West. We'll happily recommend San Diego again for your picks this week – did we mention they're 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Jags?