Soviets: Cia Off Base On Economy Estimate

WASHINGTON — The Soviet Union`s economy is dramatically weaker than the CIA thinks, even though the CIA thinks it is feeble to the point of ``near crisis,`` top Soviet economists said Monday.

In a press conference resembling a game of ``Can you top this?`` the Soviet experts detailed just how broken down their economy is.

The CIA reckons the Soviet economy is about half the size of America`s, but it really is only 14 to 28 percent as large, they said. And Russian living standards are worse than Brazil`s-certainly nowhere near one-third of U.S. levels, as CIA data indicate.

And military expenses swallow about 25 percent of Soviet production, they added, a much bigger bite than the CIA estimate of 15 to 17 percent.

Some other self-assessments: Industrial production sank 6 percent ``at a minimum`` so far this year; meat and grain production are only half as high as official statistics indicate; and most consumer goods- once plagued by shortages-now are simply nonexistent.

``You can buy bread; some milk products, not all; sugar you can buy only if you have ration tickets. No refrigerators. No TV sets. No furniture. No vacuum cleaners, and so on. No shoes,`` said Oleg Bogomolov, a leading economist and member of the Soviet parliament.

``I know very well that our economy is experiencing a very deep crisis, and the situation is deteriorating,`` Bogomolov said.

On that basic point, at least, the CIA and Soviets agree. Last week the CIA told Congress the Soviet economy is in ``an unstable state`` and could be pushed by events into ``chaos,`` with output plummeting 20 percent.

Widespread strikes, ethnic conflict and severe weather could trigger such a free fall in production, the Soviet experts said. But they worried less about such plunges than the continuing breakdown of their system.

Consumer markets and state distribution systems ``are collapsing`` and Soviet agriculture today ``is as grave as it used to be,`` said Vladimir Tikhonov, also a member of parliament and chairman of the Joint Union of Cooperatives of the USSR.

``In other words, the crisis is developing,`` Tikhonov said, ``and for a couple of years in the future, I don`t see anything positive in that respect.``

The press conference came after CIA and Soviet experts compared notes at an unprecedented four-day closed-door retreat in Virginia.