Ukraine may benefit from Russia's ban on Turkish food

Ukraine's President Poroshenkospeaks during a news conference in Kiev
Thomson Reuters
KIEV (Reuters) - Russian trade measures against Turkey may give Ukraine a chance to regain its position in the Turkish food market, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Tuesday.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved on Tuesday sanctions against Turkey in retaliation for the downing of a Russian warplane.

Analysts say that Turkey in response may refuse food imports from Russia.

UkrAgroConsult said the share of Ukrainian wheat in the Turkish market has declined by 50 percent over the last five years to only 2.7 percent in the 2014/15 season.

"The similar situation has developed in the maize market. Turkey has cut imports of Ukrainian maize by 75 percent since season 2010/11 preferring supplies from Russia," the consultancy said in a report.

The fact that Turkish government has no plans to reduce imports due to the low quality of their own grain may be beneficial to Ukraine. Turkey needs high-quality wheat to produce flour which it used to ship abroad, the consultancy added.

Ukraine harvested up to 28 million tonnes of wheat this year and plans to export 16.6 million tonnes in the 2015/16 season. It has already exported about 9 million tonnes of wheat so far this season.

UkrAgroConsult said that Ukraine may also easily fully supply Turkey with sunflower oil without any noticeable reduction of shipments to other countries.

The consultancy said Turkey was likely to import about 880,000 tonnes of sunoil this season.

Ukraine plans to produce about 4.7 million tonnes of sunoil this season and its exports could reach 4.28 million tonnes.