Is it a blip or bust?

Have prices really fallen outside Dublin as recent figures suggest, or is this another statistics blip, asks Mark Keenan

The beginning of the end for the Irish residential property boom could be upon us, if the latest figures are anything to go by. Statistics just released for the month of October suggest that, outside the capital at least, the era of constant price rises has ended.

For the first time in three years, the monthly Permanent TSB/ESRI house-price statistics bulletin has recorded a fall in prices outside Dublin — the vast majority of the nation’s housing stock. According to the report, these prices fell by half a percent in October. This contrasts with a robust 1% increase in the capital itself. Nationwide, including Dublin, the annual growth figure for October was 0.3%.

Statistics on the housing market do come with a health warning though. Lenders, estate agencies, independent bodies and by the government have all got it wrong at one time or another. The most notable inaccuracy was the Department