It is always a guess as to when a replacement model comes out, but the longer you wait, the more likely it is.

Is the 5D3 "late"? By definition, it can't be as Canon never said when they would release it. If you try to look for patterns in release dates, then there was about a 3 year gap between the mk1 and mk2, and if you assume the same again for a mk3, that should have been announced last year. BUT if you also look at the lower end bodies which are on a faster cycle, they're not a fixed length cycle either and there is variation. Two sample points for the 5D series really isn't significant. And when you go to the 7D, we don't even have that. All we know is it was announced late in 2009. But how long is it's cycle? Comparable to the 5D? If so, you're looking at the end of this year.

And does the announcement of a new model in any way change how your existing camera performs? It will do what it does as it has done. Do you take photos with it, or just write about having the latest kit on forums?

Leo, do not become discouraged! Your 7D is what it is, a truly very good and capable camera, and does not become obsolete just because a replacement is announced, and in this case, NO replacement has yet been announced. Even professionals do not necessary upgrade each time a new camera body in introduced, if their existing camera does what they need.

One of my local instructors, Christopher Duncan, had waited until the 50D was announced to buy his 40D, to take advantage of reduced 40D prices, and as of November 2010, was still content with his 40D, seeing no immediate need to upgrade at that time. (The 7D was readily available then.) Chris authored _Advanced Crime Scene Photography_, available through Amazon. (To be clear, I am not saying he endorses any camera brand!)

I see your point - I was just being a little fecetious. In the end I was only crying because I kinda like that new camera smell lol.

But yes, I waited after the 7D was released to get it, so I knew the replacement was coming, I wasnt expecting it to arrive so soon lol. At least in the end I got a really good price for it - hundreds of dollars cheaper than what Canon Australia was asking for and they tend to price things hundreds of dollars more than EU, Asia and USA even if our dollar is comparable tot he Euro and more than the US. Sometimes buying overseas saves me enough money to take the lens to canon TWICE for warranty and still be ahead (my friend bought a 70-200 2.8 for just over 2 grand when he was in Hong Kong, and the zoom started to lock, instead of sending it back to canon hong kong, he paid 200 bucks to get it repaired in Australia and they offered him a 2 year warranty for 300 more bucks and viola he saves money and gets a longer warranty. I say Canon Australia needs to fix their pricing.

But back on topic, does anyone think the new 5D will retain its slower cont. shooting mode or will it be more comparable to the 7D if or when it adopts a new AF system

Take each point in turn:
22MP - it is both too low and too high at the same time to me. Why not recycle the 18MP from the 1D X if you're going low, and why not much higher if you're going higher? One theory others have proposed is 22MP fits nicely with 3x3 sampling for 1080 video.
61 point AF - pro territory? I know that's kinda matching/beating Nikon, but it is also pretty darn close to the 1D X.
7.5fps - they give this a lower credibility rating, but again, it would be eating into 1D X territory.
DIGIC 5+ - this is practically a given. Well, the 5 part anyway. The + is neither here nor there.
Grip and GPS are relatively unimportant.

*if* the above comes true, the only way it wont squeeze 1D X sales is if it costs a significant amount above the 5D2.

Pixel count: Historically it has always gone up but, from the 1D X blurb in relation to that camera's 18.1MP sensor, "image resolution exceeds the quality demanded by leading photo agencies - making it ideal for extra large prints up to A2 size, even after cropping". On the assumption that Canon announces a higher pixel count studio camera later this year they may indeed re-use the 1D X sensor but downrate it to include fewer read-out channels as there will only be a single DIGIC 5 processor in the 5D3.

AF Points: Would Canon re-use the 7D system or the 1D X system. If the latter then maybe they would again downgrade it slightly. Historically Canon haven't been too generous with the 5-series AF so I'd guess the 7D which means 19 cross-type AF points.

Burst speed: More than the current 4 fps but less than the 8 fps of the 7D. So I would guess maybe only 5 for a reason given below.

Metering: Canon might be a bit more generous here. The 100,000 pixel RGB AE metering of the 1D X is a non-starter in my book as it requires a separate DIGIC 4 but maybe they'll borrow a cut down version of that technology which a single DIGIC 5 can cope with in addition to its other duties. Given my prediction of a lowly 5 fps (less than half that of the 1D X with its two DIGIC 5s) there might be enough processing room to spare.

Elephant in the room: Video ergonomics will improve but Canon might like to go a bit further in this area give how the 5D2 arguably got the DSLR video revolution properly under way. Both the 7D and the 1D X offer 1280 x 720 (59.94/50 fps) in addition to the 1920 modes so what extra could the 5D3 offer given that those modes are standard these days. 50/60 fps at 1920p or 120 fps at lower resolutions? I have no idea whether that is even feasible with DIGIC 5 but I think the Canon marketing folks will want bragging rights on the video front for the 5D3, even if it is a feature most users will rarely or never use!

Bottom line is that it's hard to see how the 5D3 can be anything more than a gentle evolutionary step from the 5D2 in most respects. Using the 18.1MP sensor technology of the 1D X together with DIGIC 5 will offer the same 100-51200 ISO (up to H:204800) and that sensor is probably the single best and finest improvement they could make - even lower noise at ISO 100 and extra capability in the dark. I predict the theoretical 8% reduction in linear resolution won't be noticeable in real life - DIGIC 5 plus a lower noise sensor might even do better than offset that decrease.

Rather like buying an occasional lottery ticket even though you know you won't statistically win the jackpot in a lifetime it's fun to guess and to lay those guesses out for public opprobrium when the camera is finally revealed. But they are only guesses on my part and aren't even based on current rumours.

We can, kinda, look to Nikon for an idea of what Canon could do. Compare the D700 to D3. Both are 12MP full frame cameras. The cheaper body gets 5 boost-able to 8 fps with grip compared to the 9 fps on the higher model. Both have 51 AF points, although I recall hearing some people say the D700's system doesn't have as meaty a processor behind it. On paper, there is little between them and if it wasn't for the sensor refresh in the D3s there seemed little point in the D3 existing.

Consider Canon's direction since the 7D. That took over with a downgrade for the 60D, now the shake up at the 1D level. Can we assume they will follow their old ways with the 5D line too? I think they can and probably will do something a bit different, whatever that is. But the more they give, the more you might expect to pay for it too. Don't expect a free ride here.

I think something would be wrong if the pixel count was 18MP, because then all of the bodies would share the same amount. The 5D series is used in Studios, and do you really think a Photographer will be instantly comfortable with swapping their 21MP to an 18MP? It's not always about pixels, but it would confuse them, and frankly why downgrade?

I think the resolution could at least stay the same.

Popo,
I know it's not about the equipment, but this discussion is about equipment, more specifically what is allegedly being released.

I won't be upgrading, but I am interested to be kept up to date with the latest developments so I can follow it.

500D, There was the Leo's 7D related stuff being a minor diversion. I think that's over already.

I think it is a kinda tail wagging dog situation when people say the 5D series is a studio camera. I think because of the spec of existing models, that has been one significant area of use, but that is not to say the 5D was intended for that role in particular or that it would preclude other roles. If the rumoured spec happens to come true, it would pretty much satisfy everyone except those really needing either high pixel counts or high density. That I think is Canon's biggest forward looking gap they need to keep an eye on.

I think I've been on record countless times in the past, I'd prefer a significantly higher MP model (30-something minimum, 40-something or higher preferred). But I can also see that application might be rather niche and they're targeting the mainstream first. Be realistic, the difference between 21 and 18MP is not going to be a deal breaker for the vast majority of people who are seriously looking in that region. And the reasons Canon did that on the 1D X have already been discussed.

Yes, there is potential for confusion with the APS-C line which is why I found it odd for them to pick 18MP for the 1D X. Not that I'm suggesting 1D X buyers would have that confusion, but because I though it a logical step to recycle the sensor into lower bodies where that might be a more likely possibility. Similarly not changing the MP count would be potentially confusing too, so even a minor bump will help make that distinction clearer.

If the 18 MP sensor of the 1DX trickles-down into the 5D3, that would be fine wth me, but I am not opposed to high MP. I hope to see low-light performance enhanced, with better AF ability in low light, and low noise, which is not necessarily the same thing as noise reduction. Being able to AF accurately and reasonable quickly in low light is what is most important to me.

Speculation is fun, but I can be patient, as the target date for acquiring a full-frame camera is in the latter half of 2013, if not 2014. By then, perhaps, the 5D3, or whatever its name will be, should be on the market, and perhaps already have a firmware update to fix any initial bugs.

Personally I'm quite disapointed in not seeing the 'Vari-Angle' screen on this camera seen in Kenya. As a 40D user I get very frustrated in using its screen in very bright conditions. I'm sure new screen technologies and anti glare surface finishes should minimize these effects, but angling the screen away from the light can also help I've found (using my mates D5100), not to mention also the compositional flexibility of such screens.

However I would suggest that this feature could possibly be reserved for a 5D MKIII 'Video Variation' with similar capture features to the C300.

As for the rumours circulating about the amalgamation of the 5D and 7D lines, I believe that these two future cameras are being co devloped together with similar principle builds and electronic architechture (so a R&D cost saving amalgation really). So it would be reasonable to say that they could share the same battery grip.

Maybe the 7D MKII's major similarity to the upcoming 5DMKIII would allow the much future 70D to differenciate itself more clearly from the likes of the 600D (which is extremely thin at present), taking it back to a place where the 40D/ 50D left off. I would greatly like to see this as the current 60D doesn't really square up fully to the likes of the D7000 or K-5.

Again this is all just specualtion. Canon would rather prefer you buy a 7D as a successor to the 40D/ 50D, and for us blokes buy a 60D as a larger bodied variation of the 600D for those digits on the end of your right hand.