What would be a fair way to go short/long on BTCST? The betsofbitco.in ones don't make a lot of sense. Those who are long have funds in BTCST, and won't withdraw them before the bet deadline .

Just tease Pirate himself - make him to bet in... he is the only person who has some interest to bet against you at betsofbitco.inI mean: he knows if he can win and if he does, he also wins a satisfaction as a bonus...All the other people who'd vote to trust him, prefer to deposit the bet directly in BS&T

I consider it my duty to put forward my thoughts on this, which have changed, since I don't want to be judged on earlier posts on this matter, even though I hate to be "that" FUD guy, and even though I wanted to hold off on it in public.

My assessment of the probability that it is no ponzi has shrunk from >50% to <1% within the course of 4 months, and particularly now, for many reasons:

First off, the debt seems to have tremendously grown especially with the start of the first passthroughs on the GLBSE. My estimate is it is very well in the 6 BTC digits, and even with only 100k BTC, the payouts generated are a multiple of what MtGox, the largest exchange, earns in a typical trading week (~2x more). Growing debt makes no sense for anything I know of but a ponzi scheme. It seems that the volume continues to grow since nobody has yet publically complained about being pushed out of the system, at least not significant sums, and not one from the passthrough-schemes.

Then we have the consistency of payouts, never do the rates spontaneously vary or vary at all until they are changed as planned.

Furthermore, the tiered system of higher interest rates for higher deposits. The explanation given for this was that small accounts are a hassle, but then it makes no sense to change to a new system where people can create as many accounts as they want without referral (although with lower interest). It also makes no sense that the interest rates remain 7% at the top end of the new tier, which probably will require tons of BTC deposits (big incentive not to withdraw), turning it into a sort of pyramid scheme where the "Trust" accounts have to refer new people to grow their interest rate.

In combination with growing volume and incredible consistency, the continuosly high interest rate of 7% over so many months makes absolutely no sense to me for anything but a ponzi as well.

Lastly, there is some sort of Pirate fan club going on here, where everyone else is bashed in a sort of group thinking, or alternatively sarcastic "jokes" are spammed to hide/annoy any critics. Reminds me of May/June 2011.

It’s impossible for me not to act on my conviction at this point and come out with this. I will personally apologize to Pirate if my assessment turns out to be wrong, and I will do it right in this thread.

I know most people are already aware of all of this, but there is a chance that it will help someone. Everyone should act as is his conviction.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit

No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.

Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.

In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.

Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity?

No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.

Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.

In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.

Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity?

Interesting, no takers so far.

We've already hashed this out as well. There's a currency risk. By him always taking his profit as USD, he reduces the risk to himself and passes it on to the depositors.

Furthermore, the tiered system of higher interest rates for higher deposits. The explanation given for this was that small accounts are a hassle, but then it makes no sense to change to a new system where people can create as many accounts as they want without referral (although with lower interest). It also makes no sense that the interest rates remain 7% at the top end of the new tier, which probably will require tons of BTC deposits (big incentive not to withdraw), turning it into a sort of pyramid scheme where the "Trust" accounts have to refer new people to grow their interest rate.

Sure everyone can make new accounts, but why would you make a new account for 3.9% when you could just go under a trust account and get a better rate? I think you'll see very few new accounts actually being made on their own.

No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.

Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.

In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.

Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity?

Concerning shorting:If my bet is him running off with the money, how would I sign and especially enforce a contract with him?! Also this would probably lock up quite some funds of both shorters and people long on him (who would likely rather have their coins "working" at BTCS&T, as the returns there would be even better than going long for a 100% return after a few months).

Oh, and again:All(!) his transactions are public! This is Bitcoin, not some hidden network of bank to bank transfers! Have some balls, post transactions to pirate's addresses and if he made a mistake somewhere combining lots of his accounts, it will come out - then you could clearly see how much money is invested with him, where it goes etc.

About selling BTC in bulk for cash:* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3ZbMail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf

About selling BTC in bulk for cash:* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?

Well, we know he's not getting money from MtGox. Nobody is lulz! Unless he's the reason why it takes forever to get money out.

would you rather make 10.65% a week but have some risk of losing your capital if bitcoin fails OR would rather make only 4.67% a week using someone else's capital and have pretty much no risk whatsoever. I think pirate would be stupid to risk his own money.

Do you really want me to do that math for you?

Okay. Whatever. Difference in yields there is 5.98%. Amortization time of risking own money: 12 weeks. However, Pirateat40 pays 7%, so it's shorter even! Bitcoin has survived trading for decent amounts for over a year now, so the decision to use other people's money is a massive loss for him already. In fact, a factor 5.7 using these understated client yields.

Plus, just investing the earnings from the current scheme now and kicking people out would not risk a bitcent of his starting capital!

would you rather make 10.65% a week but have some risk of losing your capital if bitcoin fails OR would rather make only 4.67% a week using someone else's capital and have pretty much no risk whatsoever. I think pirate would be stupid to risk his own money.

Do you really want me to do that math for you?

Okay. Whatever. Difference in yields there is 5.98%. Amortization time of risking own money: 12 weeks. However, Pirateat40 pays 7%, so it's shorter even! Bitcoin has survived trading for decent amounts for over a year now, so the decision to use other people's money is a massive loss by now. In fact, a factor 5.7 using these understated client yields.

Going back to the subject, which is the new interest rates, from what I see the PPT re-sellers are announcing that their interest rate is not going to change after August the 1st.Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.

I'm amazed at how much defense there is when people don't even know what he's doing! I had a small amount in the FOO.PPPT bond on GLBSE which I withdrew before the most recent ponzi allegations. Also, the currency risk argument for legitimacy is total BS. There's currency risk both ways: BTC -> USD and USD -> BTC. Neither is a safe haven for a business that operates cross-currency.

For those who are apologists: why not post transactions, what you've sent and what you've received? That's an easy way to at least provide a baseline for verification.

I'm not strictly in the 'BTCST is a ponzi' camp, but it does look like that's the most viable possibility. If it does end legitimately (pirate has always been clear that he expects it to end at some point), I can't wait to find out what the hell he's been doing. A potential possibility is pegging the market and profiting from volatility, but it seems like his risk is a lot higher by assuring a 1.07 weekly return and on-demand withdrawals. Also, without actual transactions to work from, testing this hypothesis is hard. At least one individual mentioned they had tracked their coins and they didn't go to Gox. How he could tell what was and was not a Gox address I'm not sure, but if he was correct, it's even more likely that BTCST is a ponzi.

-bgc

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.

Going back to the subject, which is the new interest rates, from what I see the PPT re-sellers are announcing the their interest rate is not going to change after August the 1st.Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.

Yeah but at least with one bond (TYGRR.BOND-P) it's unclear whether additional bonds will be issued after 8/1/12.

Basically, he gives up part of his yield in exchange for reduced risk.

Yeees, and my post shows just what a horribly stupid deal it is to do that.

Dude, did you even read the post before quoting it, or just do something to push it to the back? I just showed that amortization time for using one's own money is tiny, and that Pirateat40 easily gets enough money from the current scheme to just take over. It is absolutely nonsensical for him to still be using other peoples' money.

Could you clarify please. What would be an example of an operation where having USD liabilites as opposed BTC liabilities is by 2-3 orders of magnitude more risky?

Ok lets say your business was in "pet rocks".

...

I don't know about you but that's what risk management means to me.

The way I reckon, that view is a much more responsible one than most here are assuming. To put it as Jim Sinclair might say, the days of colonial style wealth extraction that only benefit those at the top are over.

Sure, the concentration of wealth from a successful venture might be extreme at the top, but it leads to impoverishment and resentment of those involved, whether directly or indirectly. A rising tide raises all ships, but wealth extraction holds many underwater.

Instead of hoarding his shiny Bitcoins and his proprietary venture a la Facebook, Pirate is granting access to a potentially risky investment. Doing so means that no other business doing the same can offer as high a rate of return without copying his profit-sharing model.

As for his risk, it is not so much that Bitcoin might fail, but that those whom he is obligated to might come after him with pitchforks, demanding blood. To lessen or eliminate the latter, he is sharing access to his operation - in the event of failure, he'll step down as Captain of the ship rather than be forced to walk the plank like Jamie Dimon.

In light of that, lead on, Captain Pirate!

Reading posts like this makes me smile. There're still smart people in this community and it's those people I've learned to surround myself with.

"Surround yourself with like-minded people who want to see you successful." - Robert Kiyosaki

About selling BTC in bulk for cash:* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?

Whom you know matters. A reliable business relationship can be a difficult thing to achieve, especially when there's no competition.

Bitcoin does not incur oversight. This can be very valuable for transfers at high volumes within an organization, businesses that pursue aggressive tax minimization strategies, and a number of other situations. Flow can be more important than stock. I could see a lot of demand for this from traditional financial firms, particularly in the foreign exchange area. With increasing scrutiny, services are fleeing the western system in droves wherever possible.

Some supply may be sourced from Gox and existing clients. What other service does Pirate run that could provide a major supply of BTC?