Sunday, August 22, 2010

Close Republican race in Florida

The Republican race for Governor in Florida is looking like a tight one as it heads into its final day. Our final poll of the race finds Rick Scott leading Bill McCollum 47-40. That advantage is within the poll's margin of error.

If Scott does indeed come out the winner it will be because he destroyed McCollum's reputation with conservative voters. McCollum is ahead 44-39 with moderates, but Scott has the overall lead thanks to a 50-39 advantage with conservatives. 48% of them have an unfavorable opinion of McCollum to only 37% who see him positively after weeks of Scott's attack ads.

The older and more racially diverse the electorate is on Tuesday the better McCollum's prospects will be. He leads by 13 points with senior citizens, but trails by 16 with voters under 65. He's ahead by 12 points with non white voters, but trails by 12 points with white voters.

Regardless of who emerges as the winner Tuesday night Republicans' chances of holding the Florida Governor's office will have been considerably damaged by this primary campaign. Only 46% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of Scott and just 38% see McCollum in a positive light. They've left GOP voters with mixed feelings about them and Democratic and independent voters with pretty negative ones. Five months ago we would have said Alex Sink looked like a dead duck. Now with the way this contest has unfolded she looks like the favorite.