Major developments in Syria and Turkey

This week has been marked by two major events: the USA and Russia agreed to a common plan for military coordination in Syria and the failed coup in Turkey has been followed by a massive purge of the Turkish elites.

Syria:

The Russians had really no option but to accept to work with the USA in Syria. They way in which they did it was very elegant, however: Lavrov and Kerry have agreed to a joint long-term ceasefire whose exact terms are to remain secret, which indicates to me that the Russians forced the US into concessions which the latter don’t want to be made public. How do we know that it was Russian who forced concessions on the USA and not the other way around? Simple – there was no US “leak” to the media and the Russian bombers have resumed their operation with a new intensity. Besides, it is pretty obvious that in Syria at least Moscow holds all the cards now and Kerry has therefore no means to put pressure on Russia even if he wanted to.

But the main development for Syria is still the coup in Turkey.

Turkey:

What happened in Turkey is huge. So big, in fact, that I even suspect that the numerous rumors about an Erdogan-orchestrated false flag could have been started by the US propaganda machine (since when to even mainstream media outlets even discuss false flags?). Not everybody bought into the false flag theory, not Sibel Edmonds and not M. K. Bhadrakumar. Not only did these two reject the false flag theory, they also explained in detail the role of the USA in this coup. To their testimony I can only add that I have been contacted by several well-informed readers from countries neighboring Turkey who have also told me that at least a “faction” inside the USA has had advance knowledge of the coup.

If all of the above is true, that might also explain why some have sincerely felt that this might have been a false flag. If the Russians really did warn Erdogan, then his best move would have been to let the coup begin to unmask all the conspirators and their sympathizers and only then to crack down on them.

The magnitude of the purge in Turkey is nothing short of amazing: Erdogan is clearly engaged on a massive and brutal campaign to ruthlessly purge entire social classes which he perceives, probably correctly, as hostile to his rule. So while we can rejoice that a US-backed coup has failed, we should have no illusions about how is now in power in Turkey: a ruthless and unpredictable megalomaniac who should never, ever, be trusted.

There are, however, objective reasons to also welcome these developments.

First and foremost, the Turkish military is now being decapitated and it will be in no condition whatsoever to try to crush the Kurdish resistance or, even less so, to invade northern Syria.

Second, Erdogan and Daesh are apparently on a collision course (the official Turkish version is that they did the airport bombing) and that means that Daesh lost a key supporter.

Third, now that the Turkish threat has been neutralized for the foreseeable future (5 years at least), Russia is in a much better position to deal with the Takfiri crazies in Syria and with their Wahabi backers in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

Fourth, there is a non-trivial possibility that Turkey will now openly declare the US/NATO/EU as an enemy of the regime. Not only is the USA harboring the CIA-controlled Gulen, but it turns out that some of the aircraft involved in the coup took off from Incirlik. Considering that Incirlik is basically US-run, this means that the US fingerprints are all over the coup. Right now Erdogan is still too weak to take on the US and NATO, but if he succeeds in completely purging his enemies from the centers of power in Turkey, I would not put it past him to simply leave NATO completely. This is not likely, only possible, but should that happen that would be a formidable loss for the Empire.

Fifth, there are interesting conversations taking place in the public debate in Russia. Zhirinovski, who is often used by the Kremlin to “test the waters” for various Kremlin-backed ideas, is now suggesting that Russia should form a trilateral military alliance with Iran and Turkey. Again, there are many formidable obstacles to overcome before anything like that happens but, again, this is now at least possible (maybe not an alliance, but some kind of cooperation is likely)

Sixth, for the Syrian government the failed coup is quite literally God-sent. Not that Assad and Erdogan will ever have a love-fest again, but Assad must now realize that his most formidable adversary has now been neutered and that this completely changes the strategic dynamic of the war for the liberation of Syria from the Takfiris. Add to this the agreement between Russia and the USA which, however insincere and temporary, at least precludes a direct US attack on Syria (as demanded by the 51 Neocon crazies at Foggy Bottom). Add to this the very real possibility that Trump will be in the White House next year and I would suggest that, all in all, things sure look way better today for Syria than they did just a couple of weeks ago.

Seven, no matter what happens next, Turkey as a whole has been tremendously weakened by this coup and the subsequent purge. Not only that, but this one if far from over, Edmonds even speaks of a possible “2nd wave coup”. But even if that does not happen, and even if Erdogan remains in power, the Kurds now will be facing a much weakened enemy and might decide that it is “now or never” for them to try to free themselves form the Turkish yoke. So there is a very real possibility that Turkey will simply fall apart (again, “possibility” is not the same as “likelihood”). But since we are still far away from this possibility actually materializing, it would be premature to go there. However, even if Turkey does not break up, a much weakened Turkey is likely to have to agree to the kind of concessions which a powerful Turkey would never have accepted: this is not only true for the Kurds, but also for the Russians and Iranians. In other words, now is the ideal time to begin some very intense and far reaching negotiations to try to force Turkey to become a responsible and predictable actor in the region.

The biggest problem with all this is, of course, the rise of the kind of neo-Ottoman Islamism which Erdogan has promoted to come to power and which is now infecting large segments of the Turkish society. There is now a real risk for Turkey to go down the terrible path which Algeria had to take to deal with the FIS and, later the GIA (the big difference being that the FIS never really got to power). This is why the neo-Ottoman Islamists are now ruthlessly purging both the secular Kemalists and Islamist Gulenists (a weird de-facto alliance for sure).

Russia and Iran have to be extremely proactive in trying to “channel” Erdogan into some kind of semi-sane form of state Islamism which would not serve as a Petri dish for the kind of horrors which costs so many lives in Algeria. The good news is that Turkey certainly has the potential of finding a unique form of conservative Sunni Islam which does not have to find inspiration in the Wahabi crazies of Daesh or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Maybe Chechnia under Kadyrov could at least in some aspects inspire a modern form of modern Islamic traditionalism?

Again, the main problem is Erdogan himself. But since this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, all the countries neighboring Turkey have to accept this reality, however uncomfortable, and try to make the best of a radically new situation.

For the time being we reasonably can assume that Erdogan will prevail. If that is indeed what happens, he will be way too busy to deal with major international issues. What is certain is that Erdogan has imposed a three months long state of emergency and that he will be meeting with Putin in early August. Whether Putin “saved Erdogan” as some claim, or whether Russia just gave him advanced warning of the coup, it is pretty darn clear that Erdogan now vitally needs Putin’s support and that Putin knows that. Soon the world will find out what exactly Putin had in mind when, following the downing of the SU-24, he announced sanctions against Turkey and then added “Одними помидорами вы не отделаетесь” (you will not get away just with tomatoes). There will be a price to pay for Erdogan and Erdogan knows it. But Putin also knows that now is the time to negotiate with Erdogan, so the price will be substantial, but reasonable. At the end of the day, Russia and Turkey need each other, at least to prevent another, it would be the 13th, Russian-Turkish war.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world

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DVORIKI VILLAGE (Vladimir region), July 22. /TASS/. The development of relations between Russia and Turkey will depend on their cooperation on Syria and on whether Turkey will take steps against those who use this country’s territory to finance terrorists in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday.
“Much will depend on how we will cooperate on the settlement of the Syrian crisis,” Lavrov said. “It happened so that when our aircraft was downed, we announced corresponding decisions to freeze contacts. During discussions of the Syrian crisis, we provided many facts that prove that Turkish territory is used for providing supplies to terrorists and sending militants to Syria. These facts remain on the table,” he added.
“Now that we’ve restored our relations, it will be hard to ignore what the facts that we provided, and we hope that our Turkish partners will now start answering these questions, will take measures to stop their territory being used for supporting the fratricidal war in Syria,” he concluded.
“We presented a lot of evidence that indicates that Turkey’s territory is widely used to finance terrorists and redeploy gunmen to Syria,” the minister told the Territory of Meanings on the Klyazma national educational youth forum. “Now that we have resumed our relations, it will be difficult to ignore the fact that our Turkish partners will have to answer these questions now, and not only answer, but also take steps, as they used their territory to support this fratricidal war.”
He noted that Turkey’s neighbors “realize that cooperation should be increasingly more based on trust and candor.”
“All the more so because the situation in Syria has changed over the past few months, and conditions are being created for defeating terrorists and launching a genuine intra-Syrian dialogue,” the minister said.

and
MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Disagreements with Turkey on the Syrian settlement have not disappeared, Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.
“The problem issues that we notified UN Security Council about include supporting militants, transparency of the Turkish-Syrian border. They have not disappeared, they remain on the agenda,” Zakharova said.
Talking about how normalization of relations between Moscow and Ankara will affect Turkey’s position on Syria, the diplomat said Russia is doing everything possible “to talk with Turkish colleagues about the importance of working together at international platforms, especially in the framework of Syria Support Group.”
“We will continue convincing Turkey that constructive work on Syrian settlement is necessary,” she concluded.
Punishment for those downing Russian bomber
Moscow hopes that Ankara will meet the request for the most severe punishment for those responsible for Russian pilots’ death.
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“From the very beginning, we raised this issue before the Turkish side, emphasizing the need of a comprehensive and very serious investigation into that tragedy in the skies over Syria in November 2015,” the diplomat said. “We proceed on the basis that Ankara, especially since constructive changes have occurred in the bilateral relations, will fully meet the Russian side’s repeated request,” the diplomat said.
“It’s a very important question for us, a priority,” Zakharova said. According to her, the people who participated in that events and who caused or were directly responsible for the death of the Russian military serviceman, should suffer most severe punishment. This issue remains and it is a priority for us,” she said.
On Tuesday, Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag confirmed the arrest of two pilots that downed Russia’s Su-24 jet in November 2015 in Syria, Haberturk TV channel reported. “The pilots that downed the Russian jet were arrested,” the TV channel quoted Bozdag as saying.
Moscow urges Turkey to remain committed to human rights observance
Moscow urges Turkey to act within the legal framework and observe human rights as regards those involved in the recent military coup attempt in Turkey, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday, commenting on the Turkish prime minister’s statement on the suspension of the European Convention on Human Rights.
According to her, the processes underway in Turkey after the failed coup attempt “are forced,” she said.
According to Zakharova, with all the understanding of the events that have taken place in Turkey “human rights is a priority thing, it is necessary to remain committed to the human rights observance issues.”
Order to normalize relations with Turkey being implemented
The spokeswoman has stressed that the order of the Russian president to normalize relations between Moscow and Ankara is being actively implemented.
“We maintain contacts with Turkish colleagues between the foreign ministries. A meeting at the level of deputy foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey was recently held. The presidential order to normalize relations with Turkey is being implemented,” Zakharova said.
On June 27, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, told reporters Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent Russian President Vladimir Putin a message in which he apologized for the downed Su-24 plane and “underscored the readiness to do everything possible for restoration of the traditionally friendly relations between Turkey and Russia.”
On June 29, the presidents had a telephone conversation – first in the past seven months, where they agreed to consider a meeting. After the conversation, Putin ordered the government to begin discussions with Ankara for resuming cooperation in trade and other spheres.
The Turkish Air Force’s F-16 fighter on November 24, 2015 shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M bomber, involved in Russia’s antiterrorism operation in Syria, that Ankara claimed violated the country’s airspace on the border with Syria.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said the Su-24M was above Syrian territory and “there was no violation of Turkey’s airspace.” Pilot Oleg Peshkov was killed by militants from the ground after ejecting, the second pilot was rescued and taken to the Russian base. The incident resulted in the severing of nearly all trade and economic ties between the two countries. Ankara refused to apologize for the downed jet and death of the pilot. Moscow put the blame for the incident on the Turkish authorities.

More:http://tass.ru/en/politics/889843
and
ANKARA, July 22. /TASS/. Turkey is ready to collaborate with a panel which the United States has proposed on the possible extradition of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen suspected to be the mastermind of last week’s coup attempt, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday.
“Gulen must be extradited to Turkey and should not be able to flee to another country. We are ready to cooperate with the extradition commission, proposed by the United States, Gulen’s extradition process should not be drawn out over years, it can be solved within a short period of time,” he said.

Russian Politics & Diplomacy July 22, 13:21 UTC+3
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov has declined to comment on the Western media reports alleging that Russia has delivered airstrikes on a base in Syria used by the United States

Russia insider carrying article that Kerry went to see Boris and at London conference with dozens of foreign ministries represented where Mistura was also present just spouted forth the usual usa blurb Assads forces must cease to stop killing oppostion forces and civilians, still believe rus should ask Assad to step down , permit more humanitarian aid to get through etc, stop beseiging cities etc …..so the same old stuff trying to make rus look bad for supporting Assad, but some concrete steps were being taken….I know where I’d like to pour some concrete……

If Erdogan swaps sides in Syria he will then be at war with the wahhabi’s within Turkey. A lot of violence ahead for Turkey. Perhaps a purge of the Wahhab’s after the US Nato crowd has been purged?
Erdogan will take the path that leads to the most power for himself. It seems the US or at least US backed groups were behind the coup, so Erdogan knows that aligning with the US “west” is a dead end as far as power for himself.
I think now, looking at Erdogan as a madman or totally delusional is wrong. He is smart, ruthless, and willing to take calculated risks to gain power.

Rojava is a place.
“Rojava (“the West”), also known as Western Kurdistan (Kurdish: Rojavayê Kurdistanê‎), is a de facto autonomous region originating in three self-governing cantons in northern Syria. Rojava is formed of most of al-Hasakah Governorate, northern parts of Al-Raqqah “Governorate and northern parts of Aleppo Governorate.”
In the Kurdish national narrative, Rojava is one of the four parts of a Greater Kurdistan, which also includes parts of southeastern Turkey (Northern Kurdistan), northern Iraq (Southern Kurdistan), and northwestern Iran (Eastern Kurdistan).”
Despite their claims, the Kurds in that region are a recent influx from Turkey from where they fled after the crushing of the revolt of Sheikh Said of 1925 against the reforms of Ataturk and for the restoration of the Caliphate. In Syria they started since 1930 a separatist movement

Some points in this article may be valid, but there is also a lot of wishful thinking in it; let us not delude ourselves into thinking that the deep stated will give up on Turkey and its nefarious influence in the middle east and Caucasus. The long term goal of the western and Arab elites is to destroy Russia not Turkey and that goal has not been yet reached. So US will not give up on Turkey not matter what. They might play along with the Sultan as marriage of convenience. If they can cohabit and do business with the Saudi scumbags, I am positive they can also do it with the Turkish Islamic verim.
In my take on the article I will attempt to argue why US will stick to Turkey and vice-versa at least for a while, Islamism or not.
Military speaking Turkey is nothing but a giant with legs of brittle clay. Without US or western military technology they would hardly be more advanced than the Syrians themselves (maybe just a bit, but not much more); remember that if you have young children and teenagers poking the fucking Koran all day long, it will be exceedingly difficult for them as grown up adults to make use of advanced physics, chemistry and develop algorithms needed to develop high tech weapons. That being said, the Turks have been and will be completely dependent on western weapon supply and western banks to bankroll the military procurement. Without both, they will become a third world army (in terms of equipment quality) in less than 20 years. The Russian will never supply them advanced weaponry; they only supply India and China -which they trust the most -with high tech weapons 4-6 years after they endow the Russian Armed forces. So no reapproachment in the world with Russian would help them fill the void left by western arms supply should US and its western allies decide to pull the plug on the arms delivery to Turkey. Without modern weapons, the Turkish army will not be more effective than the army of Turkmenistan; remember also that Turkey does not have the deep pockets of Saudi Arabia or UAE to, and they are dependent on the largess of US and western creditors to finance the military procurement on affordable terms. As maniac as Erdogan may be, I am positive he knows he cannot afford to forego the arms procurement from the west.
The most likely scenario developing there – at least over midterm- is that the Turks will try to play out to the maximum their geopolitical role- to their advantage and that the US/NATO will play to the maximum their military procurement and financing card in order to pursue their own agenda. Both of which are notoriously anti -Russian anti- Shia and certainly anti Syria. The best the Russians can do is to use the momentary weakness to finish off the Islamic vermin in northern Syria and seal the border. The Turkish détente will not last more than 6 months;

If this was really the way you present it, then Erdogan would not be engaging in outright hostile communications directed at the US & demanding Gulen’s extradition, but it is clear that Erdogan senses real danger, if the US was behind the attempted coup – & they have stopped short of acknoledging that they at least supported it in principle – then it will not just end here. The situation is going to descend into increased tensions, not to mention the elephant in the room, which is the Turkish population, or population of Turkey (no offence to the Kurdish people meant), & where the majority of the people stand which is of critical importance now. From what I can tell, a significant segment do not stand with Erdogan, which means as the purges become more severe, the opposition will grow & an inevitable clash will occur – the 2nd wave coup some people have mentioned. This will not die down at all, if I am wrong…..well I’ll retract this 3 to 6 months from now, but I am pretty sure we are looking at the contagion of war from Iraq & Syria into Turkey itself.

You are probably right; but then, to my point, where will the Turks get the much needed modern weapons if they alienate US? Look at the relatively sorrow state of the Iranian army 30 years after their Islamic revolution; they have not acquired any modern fighter in past 25 years, no modern submarines and no modern missile corvettes. Even the S-300 delivered by the Russian recently are not exactly the most modern. Certainly better than what the Iranians had. This will certainly relegate (much to my joy) the Turkish army to second or third tier combatant.

To your point now; the secular, Kemalist opposition in Turkey has not chance of winning this one; it appears that they do not amount for more than 25%-30% of the population (clear minority); the vast majority display overt Islamist inclinations and -for reasons that escape me at the moment – appears to stand firmly behind Erdogan. Besides they appear to lack the stamina and the fervor that the Islamists so overtly display on the streets all over Turkey; The closest historical analogy that I can think of is, again, that of Iran 1979 when Khomeini took power. Back then the secular and westernized Persians were also in minority, the shah was very much a westernized figure, the US tried its best to support him but in the end all to no avail. We all know who prevailed. The same thing appears to be developing in Turkey. Now the major caveat is that US has a strong military presence in Turkey and the country is NATO member. Therefore I am tempted to think they US will push back a lot harder this time around as there is more at stake; they might work hard behind the scenes at second round of revolt or outright Erdogan assassination. The problem is that the army has been largely decapitated, the intelligentsia either arrested or fled the country, so who will support the Kemalist? Since there is not figure what can easily replace him in terms of popularity, I am tempted to think that assassination is the most viable solution for the western interest. Economic sanctions did not work in Iran for 4 years, and will probably not work in Turkey either. Erdogan is beneficial to Russian interests in the very short term ( no more than 6 months); once the purges are over and power is consolidated the mad man will move on to stir unrest in Caucasus and central Asia where there is enough support for a renewed Ottoman empire. I guess at this point both US and Russia would have common interest to get rid of him as soon as possible (albeit for entirely different reasons); I bet the US (being the more impatient player here) will be the first to move. How? That remains to be seen.

I agree in the main with what you say here (I don’t know why I came up as ‘Anonymous’ before by the way, must have been a typo error). What I think on this though, is that as with what you say, the Kemalist opposition has been neutralized – or nearly so – but I don’t expect the opposition to Ergodan to come from there, I expect it to come from various segments of the population. The Kurds are an obvious candidate, so I won’t get into the situation where it concerns them, they will gain advantages any which way you look at it in my opinion. It is essentially the non-Islamist segment of the population, even the more moderate Islamist segments that I expect to cause Erdogan problems, & this is who the US will look to support & this is precisely why Erdogan has gone after the Gulen network with such vigor. Yep, he takes out the Kemalists, finishes them off, that’s par the course, no big deal at this point, but what he has to worry about are other segments that the US/CIA will seek to mobilize. In Turkey there is a substantial part of the population that see Turkey as a European cosmopolitan country, & see it going in that direction, whether it becomes a member of the EU or not. There is a lot of potential there, which again, is why Erdogan has gone after professionals, academics, judges etc. He knows that with the Kemalists neutralized, the US/CIA will activate existing networks – i.e. Gulen, & then form new ones or activate alternative ones we don’t know about. There is a major element here no one has mentioned yet to my knowledge, the criminal underground & the Grey Wolves, who are traditionally part of the Kemalist network. I agree that assassination of Erdogan is also a very strong possibility, & I also agree that Russia will not gain much for long out of this situation whether Erdogan hangs on or not, I think Russia only stands to gain truly if the Turkish state begins to disintegrate. My own view is that this is what is going to happen because Erdogan has adopted the wrong strategy for dealing with his opponents, I said in another commentary that he ought to take a leaf out of Assad’s book & engage in dialogue to search for middle ground, but he’s gone on the warpath instead & having gone on the warpath I think a war – a civil war – is exactly what he is going to get. I could be wrong of course, I may be off base on this one, my prognosis on these kind of things is hit & miss, 50/50, but that’s what I think is going to happen for what it is worth. I don’t think Washington will hesitate to destabilize Turkey irrespective of its importance as a NATO member, it wasn’t really in their interests to destabilize Libya, or Iraq for that matter, but their strategic planning is absolutely amateur in this present time, so I wouldn’t expect them to make the right move.

What about the Nucs at Incerlik ? Can the US secure them remotely? Can the Nycs be harnessed by a non-US agency? Was the Coup a joint venture that went wrong when the US and Turkey each double crossed one another?

US will only give up on Turkey as cohesive sate, if they can somehow agree with the Israel to bring about the creation of an independent Kurdish state which -at this point- is a rather tall order. They need in that part of the world a surrogate state to defend their policy. I guess for a while they will try work with what they have (Turkey); only if they see that that does not bring them closer to their goals, or worse, Turkey decides -through an unlikely miracle to appease Russians more than US feels comfortable with, then they will probably – and only then- go for the plan B ( Kurdish state); there would be some great benefits to that for US in pursuing this plan:
1)the new Kurdish state would be totally loyal to US interest
2) The Kurdish state can be more or less financial independent based on oil and gas reserves
3) the very creation of an independent Kurdistan will destroy the current states of Turkey, Syria, Irak and Iran as we know them, and idea that I am sure some would salivate about.
4) the new Kurdish stated would be largely secular and would thus not give the deep state the headaches that their current allies in the region give them.
So there a quite a few pros speaking for going this route. The only major caveat to this new Kurdish state is that it will not have any access to the see and would be next to impossible for the US to supply them on need basis. Besides, that would put them at odds with just about any of the four aforementioned countries; I doubt any of them would sit quiet looking how the US carves a new Kurdish state entity from their current territories
Last but not least, the Kurds they are fairly divided ethic group with split allegiances ; hence, I doubt about the feasibility of this plan in the midterm. This would mean by default logic the that US will be stuck- for better or worse- with Turkey, Islamist or not. All they need is to take out Erdogan who is way too unpredictable, unreliable and emotional as statesman to craft any long term plans in the region for any super power. So my bet is on an assassination attempt by the deep state over the next 6-12 months.

I think you are on the money here, excellent commentary. I agree the US will attempt to preserve Turkey’s cohesion, I just don’t believe they will succeed because the gini is out of the bottle, the forces of disintegration have been unleashed & to make matters worse. Erdogan does not seem to see that what he is doing is going to bring that about – because he is provoking a civil war. Again, I may be wrong, but this is how I see events unfolding, however it pans out, it is going to be very interesting, & alarming to boot.

So it was in Washington’s interest to destabilize and destroy Libya, particularly given its role in promoting an African Gold Dinar currency that would challenge America’s jealously guarded Dollar as the world’s only reserve currency.

The answer ultimately lies in Turkish demographics: In short, the devout Muslims have migrated to the cities.

In the past generation, Turkey has urbanized at breakneck speeds. The urban population share of Turkey has increased from 44% in 1980, the data of the last major successful coup, to 73% today. In absolute numbers, this translated in an increase from 20 million to 55 million urban denizens during this period, including a fivefold increase in Istanbul from 3 million to 15 million. The other western coastal cities and Ankara also saw major increases.

From 1965 to today, the share of the Turkish population residing in richer, more heavily urbanized Western Turkey soared from a third to a half, while poorer and more rural Central Turkey and Eastern Turkey fell from a third each to 23% and 28%, respectively. However, Western Turkey also has the country’s lowest fertility rates, at less than the replacement level rate of 2.1 and comparable to those seen in the North-Eastern USA.

that’s why Erdogan has the support of the (recently promoted) lower middle classes, which hunger for moving up in the social ladder. The purge will open-up many upper-class slots, which will undoubtedly be filled up by Erdogan supporters. This whole social movement will require territorial expansion and/or looting of neighbour states, hence it is highly likely that the rash and irrational characteristics of later Turkish foreign policy will proceed.

” the mad man will move on to stir unrest in Caucasus and central Asia where there is enough support for a renewed Ottoman empire. I guess at this point both US and Russia would have common interest to get rid of him as soon as possible (albeit for entirely different reasons); I bet the US (being the more impatient player here) will be the first to move. How? That remains to be seen.”

I posted this here somewhere also. Very scary. What is the logic of US helping the Ottoman? I think probably because of 2 things:
1. Has to do with race. I realize Zionists tend to ally with Turkey. If true, the young Turks who were leaders during Armenian genocide were Jews? Still now Israel/Zionists/Anglo Saxons have alliance with Turkey. Germans had alliance with Turkey. Some websites mention the actual Zionists/Jews who converted to Judaism in Kahzar are Turkic descendants. Perhaps that is the reason when all above are trying to ally with Turkey to create unification of turkic people therefore re-create kahzar.
2. creating ottoman will help to manage the ME for the NWO. The same, with other regions.

But I am a little confused about the reasoning behind Erdogan’s need to maintain ‘friendly’ relations with US/NATO – access to modern military technology.

If the basis of that access is no control over foreign policy, then I find it hard to see the advantage – shouldn’t the military superiority confer autonomy ( or as good as)?

As it is, this technology is being provided only to facilitate terror operations in the MENA – specifically Syria. The ‘payoff’ – a neo-ottoman sultanate for the facilitator (Erdogan? Davutoglu?) is heavily compromised by the dangers of extremist blowback (ISIS Ankara bombing, and more to come…)

So it’s a case if a rock and a hard place.

Why not turn to the Russians instead of NATO for security, especially when potentially allied with Chinese ‘win-win’ economic ‘One Belt, One Road’ benefits?

Erdogan’s behavior never made any sense to me if he wanted to develop Turkey’s potential.

The smoke is beginning to clear, but it’s far from clear all the fires can be extinguished…

There are so many loose ends to this event, many stemming from previous memoranda of understandings within a matrix of alliances that it will be awhile before any new definition of Erdogan’s sincere affiliations become known through actions rather than words. While Erdogan and Gulen may be adversaries in Turkey they work together under CIA auspices in intrigue in Central Asia as just one example of these multitude of understandings. Many others have monetary payoff for being compliant to Washington’s agenda. Erdogan has been handed the cards to play the U.S. led NATO Block off against the Russian Chinese nexus for the best deal. The West will use a ‘carrot and stick’ approach while it is likely the other camp will use a carrot, assurances of safety and warnings of the Western stick to try and lure the Sultan away from the carrots the West currently offers. Of course the removal of Erdogan by hook or by crook would solve a lot of problems for the West under the current circumstances that have given some independence of option to the Sultan. We shall see if the Sultan can survive long enough to play his cards or if those running the fixed game will just have him removed for being dealt a winning hand? A probable excuse is that Erdogan has forsaken democracy and as a member of NATO the people of Turkey must have their ‘democracy’ restored. This could be a historical turning point or a return to the same old.

I think Russia should and will take advantage of this failed coup against Erdogan, as Putin said ” it will not only be tomatoes” I believe that he should pay for the mistake to down althe Russian SU-24 but that the price must be reasonable not to discourage Erdogan, but to give him a sense of hope and vision, that shows him that cooperation with Russia will give Turkey far greater opportunities both economically and in sense of Turkeys owns security, then having Russia as it’s enemy. I’m totally convinced that Erdogan is fully aware of that fact, and will sincerely (hopefully) try to build up new bilateral relations with Russia and Iran.

Turkey will not leave NATO probably because then Greece who has a score to settle over Cyprus and other past indignities would only be too tempted to perhaps settle them.

Turkey has been “neutralized” for doing major damage on the international scene for awhile. Gulanists are just as much pan-Islamists as Erdogan and have training academies in the Muslim former USSR areas of Russia and funding from their cohorts in the USA and those will continue.

If it were a strictly Gulanist coup then there would have been mass uprising in many towns in Turkey which could not have been called off 6 hours ahead of time which is why I question just how involved they were as an organization.

My military guru says ( for what it is worth) that whereas many intelligence agencies knew “something was up” it was only the Russians who had the capability to pinpoint the exact time and, since that was crucial in the way Erdogan wanted to manage the situation , he will pay them whatever he must in order to continue to play.

Thank you so much Saker for your clarity. I am originally from Syria and it has been confusing and heart wrenching to follow what is happening in my homeland.

The road to Damascus will lead to many places.

Whoever would have thought it would lead directly to Moscow.

Turkey. What a mess Erdogan has created by not being honest. Upon first hearing of the coup my intuition immediately went to Putin and how he would somehow provide a solution. Putin and Lavrov will one day be remembered as two great men who changed the world.

Incredible, really. What Erdogan has done to Russia and to Syria. And now he needs the sovereignty of both countries more than ever.

My, my, my. The web he wove. When all he ever had to do was to take the road to Damascus.

I don’t entirely agree with this analysis, I think The Saker is still buying too much into the deceptively treacherous (monstrous) Western propaganda, but others (e.g. RT, Sputnik Deutschland, and so forth) do even far more so.
[there is no contradiction in the alliance between the pseudoislamist Gülenists, ‘ISIS’, and so forth, and the secular Kemalists, and much of the pseudoleftist West for that matter (the latter also work for RT, Sputnik, and so forth); they’re all part of , or fooled by, the monstrous organized crime syndicate which has run, and runs, most of the West & World since the 17th century]

Thanks for the link (Sibel Edmonds), she’s awesome; bold, bright, beautiful (she has beautiful eyes, she’s lovely). The Turkish people (there’re many in Germany as well) are actually (including Erdogan himself) the heroes of the free world.

I like the way the Saker clears the smoke so the terrain is visible. ” So while we can rejoice that a US-backed coup has failed, we should have no illusions about (who) is now in power in Turkey: a ruthless and unpredictable megalomaniac who should never, ever, be trusted.” Yes, there is no disagreement here with the Saker, except one might add that fortunately this “unpredictable megalomaniac” for the time being, has distanced himself from another unpredictable megalomaniac who should never, ever, be trusted” called UncleSam.

If Turkey is able to deter attempts by the United States to control its government and desires to strategically realign in any way with Russia, and, furthermore, Russia is willing to risk taking advantage of this situation, we must expect a reaction from the United States that will inaugurate a third world war.

Most interesting aspect for me is the apparent ability of Russia to intercept the coup plotters’ transmissions. If true this either indicates US anticipated this & intended coup attempt as a warning to Erdogan – or that they underestimated Russia’s military intelligence capabilities. Interesting either way.

It does complement Saker’s analysis and is done by someone who happened to be at the epicenter of this political earthquake. Note conversation with Istanbul major and the slow buildup of parallel state.

Talk about developments in Syria and Turkey. Paul’s conversion on the road to Damascus makes Erdogan’s many “conversions” relative to Syria look small by contrast.

Saint Paul, converted from being a persecutor of Christians, became the main reason behind the world changing event of Christianity. Paul had Stephan stoned to death, in one way or another. Augustine said if it had not been for Stephan’s forgiving Paul, there would have been no Paul the Apostle, and no Christianity as we know it.

Who knows how much of this is fact or fiction? Who knows what is really going on today? If anyone knows, it would be the former spy, Putin, and he’s playing it close to the vest.

I more or less wear my heart on my sleeve. I don’t have much to lose so I can speak as freely as my fears allow. Love is behind all this stuff, even the negativity. Paul came to see that the “powers of the air” could do nothing unless allowed by love. “If I have all powers, and have not love, I am nothing but a tinkling out of tune child’s bell.”

So for the Love Army. The powers of this world, good and bad, know nothing of such a movement. All the better for the future of Loveranity, the successor to Christianity.

Erdogan has publicly accused the US and thereby undersigned his own death warrant. If not before by publicly saying sorry to the Russians. He could only do this, if he knew that they had signed it long before. He is, unlike fearful Merkel, Hollande, Cameron, a man with personal interest representing a country with interests. A good starting point to bargain.

“God’s Gift,” the words used by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to describe the July 15 army “coup” and the opportunity it has provided to thoroughly purge the Turkish state, were not uttered casually, or without a full understanding of their historic resonance.

Erdogan’s “Gift” was an evident allusion to the so-called “Fortunate Event” or the “Auspicious Incident” of June 1826, which also revolved around an attempted military coup by the élite military force known as the Janissaries, who had become to be viewed by the Sultan, as “seditionists.”

The Janissaries mounted their coup against Mahmud II on June 15, 1826. The London Times of June 16, 1826, related: “The Sultan was at his summer palace of Bschektash. The Aga Pacha, and the Pacha commanding on the Asiatic bank of the Bosphorus, repaired to Constantinople with their troops: 8,000 topschis, or artillery, also went thither.

“At length, his Sublimity being resolved to quell the rebellion, caused the standard of the Prophet to be displayed, and proclamations to be made in all the quarters of the city, that all men of honour — that is to say, true believers — had immediately to rally round this standard … [there was then some] hesitation among the rebels; their numbers were reduced by desertion, while, on the other hand, all the people hastened to assemble round the sacred standard. The energy of the Aga Pacha did the rest; he has crushed the rebels with grape-shot, burnt their barracks in the Ahnudan, and pursued them without mercy.”

What is particularly interesting about Erdogan’s allusion is that, according to Wikipedia, “Historians suggest that Mahmud II purposely incited the revolt, and have described it as the sultan’s “coup against the Janissaries.” The Janissary leaders were executed, and their possessions confiscated by the Sultan. The younger Janissaries were either exiled or imprisoned. Thousands of Janissaries had been killed, and thus the elite order came to its end.”

Might Erdogan have been thinking of the “Gulenists” for Janissaries, when he uttered this interesting allusion?

First of all, I agree with most of this analysis, it is very insightful. I have only one remark.

I think it is premature to predict that Turkey will be severely weakened by this coup. Erdogan seems to enjoy the support of a large section of the Turkish middle classes; and the purge will vacate many positions that will provide avenues for the “ladders of upward mobility” of the middle classes. As the old upper class was utterly weakened from several generations of inbreeding, this will infuse new bloody into the Turkish elites.

A rational policy for Turkey would be to seek its place as the crossroad between the East and the West. This would mean military neutrality and full development of the commercial hub, followed by financial services. But the danger of a policy enacted by a newly promoted elite is, actually, the same danger revolutionary governments faced. These guys have just got there, they have no old family position to defend. So they tend to be more rash, to risk it all instead of being cautious. Also, a lot of pillaging and destruction is usually associated with the movement of the whole “petite bourgeoisie” towards a place in the sun.

And so, is the New Ottoman project compatible with Turkey as the crossroad between the East and the West? Maybe yes, maybe no. Only time will tell.

The US military maintains its own ‘military to military’ contacts, to the extent of being almost a shadow foreign policy. These are developed in ‘training’ programs and are actively sought and maintained by the US military. So, when the military tries a coup in a US Ally like Honduras, Egypt or Turkey, I assume that at least some in the US military know about it in advance. I’d be shocked if that isn’t the case, and it would take solid proof to convince me that it hadn’t happened.

Well, one interesting fact that can be checked in coming weeks is whether the flow of supplies and fighters to Daesh through Turkey is stopped or at least interfered with. Likewise, it would be curious to know the status of those convoys of oil tankers driving out of Syria to Turkey. Both of those are facts that can be observed to learn the state of Turkey-Daesh relations.

Dear Saker a very good analysis as always, but a powerful factor has been left out — China’s economic potential for Turkey and the whole region.

Peace in the Middle East defeats US imperialism. Turkey, as you have noted, has unwillingly become peaceful. Circumstances have conspired to put the Turkish Muslim Brotherhood on the other side of history — they will not be nice but neither was the regime in Iran when it turned on its own allies after the Revolution, but it calmed down and now makes important contributions to the rising post-Imperial world. Likewise I expect Turkey, allying itself with Russia puts it into connection with Turkic nations all the way to China.

China brings prosperity and standing, development, and hope. Not because it is nice, but because it desperately needs markets for its own goods, and for that it needs the developing demand of developing nations — this is the beginning of post-imperialist economics — not heaven on earth, but the prospect of its possibilities.

Put China in the mix and Turkey has a role that it will eventually occupy, it5s role so far has been a puppet, fall- guy and proxy.

Got to put it to Putin, after Erdogan’s “stab in the back” downing of the Russian jet fighter and the killing of his pilot and one of the rescuers, I would have publicly sworn never in my life to talk to him or deal with the thug in any manner ever again, burning all the bridges between Russia and Turkey that I could. But I guess the mans much wiser than to let personal animosity and pride get in the way of bidding his time and as head of state doing what’s best for the Russian people in the long term. Must be that he cut his teeth as president dealing with oligarchs and their paid mobsters, who thought nothing of encasing bankers waist deep in concrete and letting them slowly die a torturous death fried in the heat of the sun until unceremoniously dumping them in the river to be retrieved a decade later. The mans an absolute master of discretion and plays the worlds geopolitical strategic games like an absolute genius. Surely he’ll be remembered in history by his own people and ultimately the world as a Saint and savior of not only Russia but the entire corrupt world..with Gods help.

Great essay, Saker. The possibility of Turkey leaving NATO is extremely dangerous. The Anglo-Zionists can’t let Turkey go no matter what. That would be a strategic disaster from which they would not soon recover, if ever. Loosing Turkey means loosing the entire middle east to Russia and I fear nukes may fly before they let that happen. With a pro Russian Turkey, the entire middle east can fall to Russia. Iraq and Syria would have a direct line to Russia. And success breeds success. Egypt and North Africa would want to get closers to Russia. KSA and the Perisan Gulf bitch states would think twice before sponsoring anti Russian terrorists.

Simply put, the US can’t allow that. And if they can’t prevent it, then their typical next step, as well you know, is to burn what they can’t have. And Turkey has unlimited ethnic fault lines for them to exploit.

But that raises another problem for them: If Turkey falls apart, Russia, Iran and Syria are in by far the best position to pick up the pieces and rearrange them the way they want.

So somehow the US has to keep Turkey in one piece and in NATO. If they can’t, then we are looking at a completely different world.

A Kurdish rebellion might jus as well rally the Turks around Erdosultan and consolidate his power. This would be similar with Saddam’s invasion of Iran that unified the nation against a common enemy, thus strengthening Khomeini’s power. His faction used dat excuse to get rid of the leftists, communist, religious-marxists (yes this anachronism existed) and secularist. The best example was the absolute destruction of MEK and Fadayan Khalgh, who originally helped the Khomeini faction, as one of the few armed group at that time, by executing an urban guerrilla against Shah. One can compare MEK to Gullen. First they were against America before becoming for it.

We need to remember the situation of Russo-Turkish relations after the Peace of Adrianople (1829). Russia had then attained her goal of protector of the Christian Populations in the Ottoman Empire and repeatedly expressed her intention to preserve the Turkish Empire and her disinterest of conquering either Constantinople or other parts of Turkey. Russia was adhering to the principles enunciated by the Vienna Congress of 1815 and which created the short-lived “Congress System’, or the ‘Concert of Nations’. System that was immediately sabotaged by Britain.
In 1833, at the request of the Sultan Mahmud II, Russia sent troops against the invasion of Syria and Anatolia by Mehmet Ali of Egypt (who was stirring up unrest among the Crimean Tatars and hopes for an Islamic jihad also!). Russians were also concerned that occupation of Constantinople by Mehmet Ali would expose it to French influence and fill it with ‘subversives’ (i.e. masonic revolutionaries). The result was the signing of the Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi, a defensive alliance which was to interdict the passage of any warships into the Black Sea. That was immediately denounced as an ‘aggressive’ act of Russia by Britain and France who started to work for its annulment. The Treaty was replaced by the London Convention of 1840 which banned the passage of any warships through the Straits. But from that moment on the policy of ‘containing and thwarting Russian ambitions’ became the obsession of ‘Europe’ which led to the Crimean War and the rest.

It has been announced a meeting between Putin and Erdogan at the beginning of next August in Russia, the location not yet disclosed.
It would be hearthbreaking for the Empire and its slaves, as well as shocking if such meeting would be held in…Crimea.

Very interesting thought, for a nato country to recognise Crimea as russia.Hopefully VP will put Erdo in such a position ,talk and persuade re the partnership with ukraine and Turkish support for the international tatars and medglis and their sabotage battalions currently in Kherson against Crimea and grey wolves alledgedly also there…….can VP “use” Erdo against poro?????

This is why, the US according to ICH, is also worried if Trump is elected, the Neocon’s plans would collapse. They are looking for ways to iliminate Putin. CIA is clever. There is rumor that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez might have been exposed to radiation in a hotel room. So Putin must becareful, I wouldn’t trust erdegon either

“The good news is that Turkey certainly has the potential of finding a unique form of conservative Sunni Islam which does not have to find inspiration in the Wahabi crazies of Daesh or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. ”

Erdogan has become a worldwide brotherhood icon and he will never abandon that, as they’re his main supports in Turkey and around the world. As for the retarded salafis, they’re useful idiots. Personally, I think Erdogan is on his last breath, his time is coming very soon. Russia and it’s allies will make the best of the situation. But no one reasonable expects or wants Erdogan to last any longer, maybe Long enough for an agreement or a treaty, but that’s about it.

“Not everybody bought into the false flag theory, not Sibel Edmonds and not M. K. Bhadrakumar.”

I guess you have to be part of the ‘appeal to authority’ crowd to get a mention. For nearly two years I sat at my blog and talked about how Turkey was in the process of being destabilized. All the while mentioning the creation of Kurdistan-

For my ground breaking work- For my top notch analysis- I was derided, name called, attacked including here- So I stopped coming by. I stopped going to sypers- I lost faith in all sorts of so called alternatives that were nothing more then fakes prophets- In the process readership fell at my blog because of all the attacks- Including here Saker- From some of your own readers.

Why was I attacked for being so far ahead of the pack, ridicule became the mode of denigration for my work, for stating what was obvious to me? The heavy duty perception management distributed through the main and alternative medias was the culprit

“I laid out on November 19 and November 21/ 2014- With some necessary background the reason it seemed obvious to me that Turkey was being destabilized and it was only going to get worse.
From that time forward I wrote consistently about the destabilization of Turkey as it was ongoing- This most recent attack, the coup, is one of many strikes against Turkey.”

For stating the obvious. I was harassed. Called an “erdogan lover” Blocked from certain sites for making my claim regarding the obvious freakin’ destabilization of Turkey. Commenters at Syper couldn’t attack me, call me names and demonize me enough. For stating the obvious.
I stopped going to Sakers. Then some of the name callers showed up at the blog… I can’t recall how many times I mentioned a coup as a possibility, including just a few days before this one happened”

In that post are just a fraction of the many posts reporting on the ongoing destabilization, attacks against Turkey going back to 2014- Including the creation of Kurdistan or Israel 2.0 as I like to call it and have called it for nearly two years now.

Edmonds couches her analysis very carefully so it can be retracted later- MKB was very good-

However, the usual suspects (disinfo types) ran with the fake coup meme immediately afterwards alongside Israeli media for the most part- what a coincidence!

One thing I’ve learned through my many, many years of having my blog and trying to figure out what’s happening for myself- That only a very few are interested in truth as can be discerned to the best of one’s ability- The rest just want, like high school, to follow the ‘in crowd’ and belong.

I surmised Russia warned Erdogan. Putin called Erdogan immediately afterwards
As for this ” Soon the world will find out what exactly Putin had in mind when, following the downing of the SU-24, he announced sanctions against Turkey and then added “Одними помидорами вы не отделаетесь” (you will not get away just with tomatoes). There will be a price to pay for Erdogan and Erdogan knows it”

The sanctions were much ado about nothing- carefully chosen to inflict minimal damage. Russia can’t do that kind of stuff without harming itself- And it’s highly unlikely Russia will ‘cut off it’s nose to spite it’s face’

“Turkey remains an important trading partner for Russia, and Moscow aims to minimise problems for Turkish and Russian businesses caused by sanctions, Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said on Tuesday.

His comments, playing down the impact of recent economic sanctions.

“Turkey remains our large trading partner. Our embargo is selective, very selective, concerning food and only certain (items),” Ulyukayev said in an interview with Russian state television.
“They are designed in a way so that existing contracts won’t be violated. Here we are for the time being very cautious. We don’t want to create problems for Turkish business, and even less for our own business and citizens.”

Saker, I have a different take. What if Erdogan is not the neo-Otoman Sultan that the MSM tries to portray? What if it is Davutoglu, his former PM, who is the neo-Otomanist and CIA plant? He wrote a piece on Osman. Erdogan is conservative and his beef is against NATO helping the kurds establish a separate entity or country. That is too much even for the Kemalist generals to accept. That would lead up to the break up of Turkey and it is treasonus. So they did a U turn towards: Syria, Iran, Russia and Asia. Erdogan is a big conservative and small islamist. That is why the secular Kemalist sided with him in this coup. If he had been the islamist bogey man that the Western MSM tries to demonize him with the secular Atartuk Kemalist Army generals would have turned against him. But they didn’t! They actually supported him with nuclear blackmail against NATO’s Air Force at Incirlik.

The man that wants to carve up a pan-islamic Turkic Empire is holed up in Pennsylvania. He is protected or funded by the CIA and the klintonistas at State Department. His name is Fethullah Gulen. Think of him as a contemporary Genghis Khan. The reason why Pennsylvania Avenue and Wall Street want him is evident. He could be a tool to de stabilize and regime change Russia and China. Just carve up all of the Asian Turkic states off from Russia and China. Consider the resources and power of all of Khazastan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, etc. into a renewed Muslim Turkic Empire. If you are looking for a quasi religious figure, then Fethullah Gulen is your anti-christ man. Divide and conquer and sow chaos is the method to the madness.

While I don’t know what is really going on in Turkey, I recall that Erdogan ran to NATO immediately after the downing of the Russian jet instead of calling the Russian defense ministry to explain and apologize for the mishap. It was also established that the ambush by the Turkish fighter jet required the support of an AWACS or ground radar installation. Therefore, I don’t buy the narrative that the Turkish pilot acted on his own behalf and I cannot take Erdogan’s U-turn seriously because it resembles the weasel-turns of the past.

Yes, that’s more like it, Sun Tzu. That might very well have been the AngloZionists’ plan.
And now their media is whining about Erdogan persecuting these CIA/NATO & Gülen/’ISIS’ agents/terrorists. It is not unlike the Nazi (AngloZionist) demonization of Stalin (e.g. ‘Jan Böhmermann’ – ‘Erdogan song’).

Yes, Laika, Turkey is the nexus for: Energy and controls an important naval choke point plus being a land bridge between West and East. Turkey has a very capable second best army in NATO. Having defeated the coup plotters allegedly from UAE, al Saud and perhaps even Egypt with support from ZATO leaves Erdogan with all the trump cards (pun intended). Erdogan hasn’t wasted any time in: a) indirect nuclear blackmail and b) requesting the klintonistas and CIA to turn over their most valubale asset, Gulen. He can still flood the EU with refugees and thus finish Merkel and the EU for good. He can also leave ZATO after leaving Aleppo (this is underway). He can enforce the Montreaux convention mBlack Sea escapades. He can put Turkish Stream back on the prioritized fast track agenda. He can deny use of Incirlik against Syria and in support of Kurdistan. He can call for the arrest of ZATO generals involved in the coup. In other words, he can wreck havoc in the empire’s election farse.

Personally I see only good things in the foreseeable outcomes of the missed US led coup. It’s just a severe blow to the anglo-zionist empire in the region, a key region for the empire.

It’s true that Erdogan will remain someone who’s hard to trust, but look at the map : Turkey has a frontier with Iran, who has one with Turkmenistan, who has one with Ouzbekistan, who has one with Tadjikhistan who has one with… China. Exactly. Turkey is the last domino missing to the new silk roads that will make obsolete the sea roads of global trade controlled by the Empire.
I’m sure that Putin and the Chinese already talked that through.

Together with becoming a first and major parking lot of the silk road, by soon restoring the Turkish Southstream with Russia, Turkey also becomes the first gas hub of the planet at the cost of its ex wahabi friend of the gulf, Qatar, an empire vassal. Gas that, by the way, won’t compulsory be traded in Dollars… It’s more than a brink in the wall, It’s huge.

When you think at all the chaos and troubles the Americano-sionists have created in the region, I don’t see why Erdogan would now forgive them the coup, not to mention the fact of making of Kurdistan their main protectorate in the region.

It’s a no-brainer for Erdogan, and if Putin has really warned him about the coup, he confirms to be the most clever leader of his time.

I reject the assumption that there is a working arrangement based on the latest “agreement”.

Russia would never collapse it’s own working arrangements set for its own forces and its management of the battlezone with Syria.

It has capitulations in place from Jordan, Israel, Turkey and the so-called coalition. For them to pass into or through the S400 defense zone and to stay our of harms way from Russian fighter escorts, Russia established the rules.

Any arrangement is for “targeting”. Russia has always said it wants clear Intel they can verify of who is “moderate”. The US has played a very duplicitous game and Russia has blown it up, literally and figuratively. Russia bombs where it sees anti-Assad forces and protects and ships humanitarian aid to those rebel groups that stand down, sign a cease fire or turn their guns on ISIS.

I don’t see Lavrov or Putin changing any of that strategy and tactic.

Kerry and Obama are delusional and in deep need to win somewhere.

Frantically, they issue diplomatic “secret” agreements that the Russians are towing the US line.
Baloney.

Look at the daily news. The Russians are blasting what they want, where they want.
And Assad is going nowhere from the scene or power, and he will stand election and win.

Either everything we know about Putin and Russian policy is wrong, or there is no “arrangement”.

The US can continue its presence in Syria. But that is in hopes it will be the first to claim Raqqa.

Putin wants to be first. Russia has a history of getting to the enemy HQ first. (Berlin).
Therefore, he would not give that to Obama to wear for all history.

As Russia loses more men, one here, two there, and the total mounts to around 15 or so, Putin has to have victory himself.

I think he has stiff-armed them in the “secret arrangement” which is face-saving alone and of no substance.

He wants Obama to turn full force in Ukraine. That is where Putin will utterly destroy NATO while forcing the end to nazi-junta rule in Kiev. NATO reportedly has more than 1000 troops ready at the contact line with thousands in-country presumably to reinforce Porky’s offensive.

That “war” will put an end to NATO as a European land force.

So, again, why give anything to the US in Syria? Obama hunts a trophy to establish his legacy. He will be forced to use Ukies if he gets nothing in Syria..

I dream of that cataclysm in Ukraine and welcome the offensive. I’m certain the RF military is drooling to unleash the Donbass Army as proxy. Poetic justice.

No, with Trump on the horizon, no arrangements are being agreed to.
Trump will make a deal after the election and then the RF and US will work as allies.

The present “secret deal” is a face-saving gift to Kerry. Russia’s inscrutable way of relating with enemies. We will never understand it. You have to be Russian in your soul to understand their humanity.

The only working agreement anyone has with US is ‘you do what we tell you to do, like it or not’. Russia tries to negotiate and come to an understanding with Kerry/Langley but Russia fully understands that USA has a well proven track record of being untrustworthy to an extreme.

We sit here and watch as Kerry et al try to protect their proxies in Syria, Turkey, Ukraine and Libya amongst other locations and watch in a combination of amazement, awe and contempt as Kerry/Obama try to differentiate between their ‘radical’ and ‘moderate’ ‘opposition’ forces in Syria and try to explain away their massacres of civilians including women and children, publicly cutting off heads including those of children and publicly burning people alive. Where is the moral outrage of the great masses of The People of Europe, US and the rest of the allies of Washington/Langley?

In my opinion what Russia, China and much of the world is dealing with is children who are spoiled rotten and have never been told ‘no’ before. Kerry/Obama fit that definition perfectly and reality is that is a very sad but true commentary on US/Europe. The problem is these children have at their fingertips weapons of hideous power and destruction and they have shown a clear penchant for using these weapons to get their way and in the process slaughtering hundreds of thousands if not millions of innocents and destroying ancient cultures.

The problem these children have is that for once someone with the same powers they have has told them the forbidden word, ‘NO’, and their temper tantrum for the last over two years has been legendary. These children have set fire to the entire southern rim of the Mediterranean Sea and east Ukraine. While the destruction caused by their proxies is hideous it is of no avail. The children have failed and as of 07 October 2015 these spoiled brats and their willing allies and proxies have realized they have lost and will never win, all their glittering toys and weapons are useless. They understand that they are no longer safe, they understand that if it comes to War the destruction they have visited on others all over the world for the last seventy years will come to them, up close and personal, and this destruction will not be nuclear, it will be ‘conventional’.

I hate war. I’ve seen not a single minute of peace since I entered this world seventy years ago. But, as much as I hate war, as much as I’ve seen war, as much as I’ve seen the destruction and tragedy of war, I know there are times when one must do what one hates the most, one must however reluctantly fight. I think our spoiled children understand that they are up against a brick wall for the first time in their lives. This brick wall will not yield, will not allow them to enter, will not allow them to destroy what is on the other side of this brick wall however much these hideous little children want to visit fire and death on those living behind this wall. They now realize that those on the other side of this wall can and will fight them if needs be.

“The children have failed…these spoiled brats and their willing allies and proxies have realized they have lost and will never win, all their glittering toys and weapons are useless.”

A very good and telling analogy. Confronted with the knowing that they have indeed been check-mated, their hubris blinding them to common sense they are now reduced to pathetic saber rattling hoping to provoke a response and further agrandise themselves as the factor they imagine themselves to be in the fantasy they entertain of themselves.

On the other hand, Russia has been placed in the position of having to teach the big, stupid but exceedingly dangerous moron a lesson. The contrast could not be greater. A person of consciousness, or in this case, a country, does everything possible to come to an accord with the opposing party. Even though nothing works, they still keep on trying, though the moron is never listening. The only thing he understands is a big wallop in the head. But the fool – full of himself believes that he’s beyond such a thing and so he continues to prod and poke.

This is ultimately a confrontation between love and raw, destructive power. Power-mongers inevitably end up the effect of their own Machiavellian plotting. Power can never defeat love, as the source of love is from beyond the realm of power. Those who love move upward on the spiritual survival scale while power mongers have to learn the hard lessons of karma.

optimism for trump…eh…he has said some great things regarding foreign policy, but in case you don’t know there is a globalist cabal who started planning ww3 while the ww2 corpses were still warm…it’s gonna happen…my guess is they will start it by nuking israhell, then they will blame iran and nuke it, then possibly accuse russia of being involved…one or more US cities will get nuked, several more in europe…its not gonna be pretty, so prepare yourself mentally if not physically…

Russia in the middle east changes the dynamic between Iran and Israel.
Iran would be utterly destroyed if it hit Israel.
Israel is not going to hit anyone with nukes. It has the two biggest allies on the planer, US and Russia.

The Globalists can’t do military adventure any longer. They do financial war.
If you look at warfare now, though bloody and costly, it is local, not even regional, and fairly static, playing out in place.

The threat of the US doing a preemptory strike has left the Iran issue. It is possible in N.Korea. But highly unlikely.

NATO is the next level threat. It cannot find a target small enough to dominate. What’s left? Armenia or Donbass? Russia holds them off with a stern look and few words from Lavrov.

Could a world war begin from terrorism? Not unless multiple weapons of mass destruction are used in some clever way to make it look like nations started a war. That’ science fiction, or at least fiction.

The biggest miscalculation would have been Turkey, if NATO suddenly came to its defense against Russia. But Russia never struck Turkey. They hit Turkmen along the border in Syria.

Now Turkey’s off the boards. Might be leaving NATO. No rescue.
Plus, NATO and the US don’t want to go against the S400s in Syria, much less in Russia.

Without some big invasion by a big allaince or big nation, there won’t be a WW 3.

But we will have plenty of war in the ME and NA. And we will have war in Afghanistan. And Sudan.

Elsewhere, not likely.

Siz months left for Obama to try something.

But early on the Russian war in Syria we saw a weapon that changes everything. Caliper missiles with ranges of 1500 kms. And most think that’s half their range. It changes everything everywhere in behalf of Russian influence. In other words, Russia can destroy an aggressor in its own behalf or in behalf of the UN or its own allies. this is projection of power without risk to weapons systems like a carrier task force. Russia has many natural hiding places in its waters, its coast lines and lakes.

This is a very stabilizing weapon. It changes many rogue concepts and neutralizes the notion that some nation or group could get the drop on Russia or one of its friends.

[Israel is not going to hit anyone with nukes. It has the two biggest allies on the planer, US and Russia].
Russia is not Israëls ally, and never was an ally as far as I know.
Here is what Sheikh Imran Hosein had to say about this matter in his recent interview with Morris : Cfr. http://thesaker.is/brexit-russia-proxy-wars-sheikh-imran-hosein-interview/ (from point 12 :10 of that video unwards).
Transcript :
Morris’s question :
I see repeated reports of warming relations between Russia and ISrael, often from SPutnik, the Russian newsagendy but also from public figures , and I wonder how seriously you take this, and what repercussions there are, given Russians envolvement in SYria, and perhaps you could also comment on Russia’s activities in SYria ?
Sheikh Imran Hosein’s answer :
I’m happy that you raise that subject, Morris, because there are lots of people, particularly in the Arab world, who are confused. They’re confused because they’re getting reports from the media – in Russia – which indicate a warming of relations, a close relationship between Russia and Israel, and that seems to be incompatible with the other view of Russia : as a Russia which is standing up to the zionists.
The fact is, Morris, that Russia is a complex society ; there is a very powerful zionist presence in Russia, and the zionists are also present in the media. And they use the media to do all they possibly can do to brainwash people into believing that Russia is a great friend of Israel.
I don’t think it is correct to say that Russia is a great friend of Israel, because the Russians are not fools. They know that Israël was actively involved in prepearing the Georgian armed forces for the attempt that was made in 2008, to inflict a serious wound on Russia, Russia which had emerged from the collapse of the Sovjet Union and emerged out of the Boris Jeltsin years, out of the chaos. The russian armed forces were in disarray. And the western world used Georgia to test Russia, and Israel was up to its neck in involvement in Georgia, and the Russians responded to that attack from Georgia by delivering a profile that « we are not afraid of you, and we will not hesitate to use power » and they used power, and they used it courageously, and they used Chechen brigades, muslims ; the heart of the Russian armed forces which defeated the Georgians, OK, and gave them a bloody nose. The Russians are no fools, they know what Israël did in 2008, and they were able to teach them a lesson.
So what the Russians are doing, I believe, is, at the level of state-to-state relationships, they’re maintaining a polite relationship with Israel , yes, but that does not mean that Israël is an ally, not at all. There is no reason for Russia to adopt a hostile policy towards Israël , no. Look at how they have responded to the Turkish embarrassing apoligy. They reacted to the Turkish shooting down of the Russian aircraft very, very strongly. But as soon as the Turkish leader apoligized, OK, there is no reason why we should not have good relations with Turkey and Men defensive. This is the foreign policy of a very mature country, showing very great wisdom in conducting foreign policy. So, I’m not surprised of Russia having respectable ties with Israel, for the purposes of a red politic. That does not make Israel an ally of Russia. ».
I do agree with Sheikh Imran Hosein view on the issue of their relationship, which is why I’m posting it here. I disagree with the Sheikh on his escathological views though, because they differ from the one we find in the bible, namely with what we read in Ezekiel, Chapters 38 and 39 and Joh’s book of Revelation. Israël will be attacked some day in the future by very mighty armies.

Quite an odd ball !!!!!!!!!weirdo !!!!!!!!!but interesting?????? biblical
prophecy type of site www survivetheenddays……by Jan 2017 rus will be forced to use massive emp weapon over america called the “weapon of indignation”(I like the name of that) so nukes are not used so civilians not killed.,………but will neutralise usa!!!!!!!!

“Iran would be utterly destroyed if it hit Israel.
Israel is not going to hit anyone with nukes.

Do you mean that the Zionist project (i.e. Israel) of the AZ cabal will carry on their satanic dirty deeds with impunity – if Iran (or anyone else) strikes it, the Israeli opponent will be destroyed so that the Zionists can continue their work ?
No amount of ‘nuclear bomb’ will ensure the continuation of the Zionist puppeteers – peoples wrath will demolish that anti-Christ project thoroughly in future.

The way I see Russia’s policy on nuclear proliferation regarding Iran, North Korea, Ukraine, and any other wannabe like Saudi Arabia and probably, Japan is Russia says no. And it will work diplomatically with China and the US to stop proliferation anywhere.

It imposed serious sanctions and was prepared to increase them on Iran. That led to the agreement on nuclear development.

It has been intensely working on North Korea’s insane display of nuclear weapon development.

It has opened up new channels of cooperation with Japan despite their Kuril Islands dispute. ONe reason is Japan has nukes. That was why Fukishima was clouded and covered by the US. The nukes were there.

As for Israel, it contains one million Russian Jews, some of the most Russian educated and talented people Russia produced. Putin is trying to court some of them to return to help innovation and technology in Russia. In fact, Israels spectacular technological development since ’91 is based on these Russian Jews’ inventions that would have been Russian products.

Putin and Israel have good clear communications. He wants Israel to enter the Eurasian development. Putin has vision, not an ideology. He precludes nothing unless it is antithetical to Russia. If it is a threat, he deals with it. If it is antagonistic, he works to solve the animus.

Iran has still not found its way of life. I, personally, see nothing positive in the government of Iran. I see Iran as a nation and civilization as very important. But it is obsessed with the Sunni challenge and threat (very realistic) and the Israeli nation amidst the Arab world.

Iran, if it concentrated on development and used the talents and genius of its people, would ascend as a major player. Instead, it works with N. Korea on missiles and nukes, it funds terrorism, it spews from its leaders irrational hate and doesn’t join the war against ISIS which is clearly one of the deadliest enemies that could turn Syria and Iraq into a Caliphate aimed at Teheran if it succeeded. Russia is saving Iran’s ass while Iran refuses to supply the manpower that would wipe out ISIS.

As for Israel as a menace, if the threats to the security of the state would cease, a much more moderate government would replace the war machine and cruel present government. For nearly twenty years, the Israelis and Jews I know don’t want this government of theirs. But they have no choice. If terrorism is thrust at you, you must defend and respond. And the only solution in world history to terror is brutal death to all its practitioners.

I think Israelis are finally come to an idea I proposed two years ago. Build Islands upon which a Palestinian state can be established, which might even enable a return of the people kept out of Palestine now. The development of the newly found gas fields off-shore will finance a solution.

China has been asked to help do the island building. China could build cities so fast and large that Palestinians would have homes at last.

I don’t deal with yesterday and correcting the mistakes and horrors of the past. We live in today and tomorrow. You can come to the issue with vengeance, with a list of crimes. You are entitled. But that approach has never solved the problems. Yelling names just doesn’t work.

Wishing Israel was not there is delusional, also. it exists.

Russia knows how to handle reality. I study Putin and see how he operates.

Notice: Bibi has gone to Putin three times in one year. Who’s in charge? I see Putin is the man in charge, not Bibi even with his 350 nukes. He knows the Tsar is the new regional decider. And one thing Israel knows, it cannot continue without adaptation. It is adapting to Russia.

You have clubbed couple of issues, which even being inter-related call for specific attention:

1. Nuclear proliferation & preparedness – Apart from big-5 (USA, Russia, China, UK, France), half dozen countries have tested nuclear weapons and related ‘delivery’ technology (and possess anything between 10 to 400 nuclear bombs of different capacity) – Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Japan, South Africa. Going by the buzz, two countries are on the threshold of testing nuclear fission explosion – Iran, Saudi Arab, while one country is moving slowly but surely on the same path – Brazil. Nuclear weapons are now part of international politics – since war is another form of politics, every country where leadership wants to remain independent from domination of AZ cabal needs to be prepared with all forms of warfare including nuclear. Putin and Xi know it much better than anyone else, and hence, in spite of all UN actions, none of them actually restrained North Korea from developing nuclear technology further – if my information is correct Russia and China are actually supporting North Korea as a front-line state against AZ cliques (mostly residing in USA, Rest of 5Eyes, Israel, France, Germany, Netherland) game changer weapon i.e. missile defense system ! Let me also assure you, east Asia case will get repeated in west Asia where Russia and China have zeroed in on Iran as the front-line state against AZ designs ! While Japan is a perfect ‘asset’ for AZ cabal in east Asia, Saudi is a perfect ‘asset’ in west Asia – both the rulers don’t have options other than prostrating in front of AZ clique, if they want to continue in the power.
While I am absolutely against any kind of war, I don’t have any such special feelings against Iran possessing a nuclear weapon – if Pakistan can have one, Iran certainly needs it ! While Israel is a black mark on human civilization ever since the Jew bankers started occupying the Palestinian land it is also travesty of justice who never ever implemented any UN ruling against Israel’s continued killing and repression of the Palestinians. And, since Jew elites lead the AZ cabal, everyone in media and academia focus on the misdeeds of Iranian Shia fundamentalists rather than castigating all forms of supremacism including Zionist terrorism ! Finally if any sane person compares the Iranian acts and Israeli acts, he/she will conclude the way I conclude – the ‘Zionist project’s end result will be ‘gone with the wind’ even if Jews and Palestinians will stay in the existing Israel, while Iran’s Shia project will be moderated to the normal civilizational level.

2. Putin’s politics – As a Head of state, Putin will plan and carry out those actions that will ensure Russia’s benefits. I strongly believe it is delusional to have a vision without an ideology ! And, to that effect I also believe that Putin is one of the most outstanding leader the world has ever seen who has strong ideology – difference between Putin and Stalin is while Stalin kept ideology in front of all his actions, Putin keeps ideology on the background while the actions are pushed to the forefront. Israel is courting Putin simply because Putin has not only checkmated Israel’s plan to reoccupy Crimea (the same Ashkenazi dream which was shattered by Stalin at the fag end of WW II), but Putin has conveyed to Israel that the dream of Greater Israel will not be entertained and even, Golan Heights will have to be returned back to Syria ! KGB knows it better than anybody else that Ukrainian project is also owned by the same Jew elites of AZ clique.

Zionist activism in the garb of real politic is a very common phenomenon in the MSM as well as Alternate Media – this is the duty of all right-minded people to point out that, at the end, any evil design against mankind will not be successful for very long period.

“I think Israelis are finally come to an idea I proposed two years ago. Build Islands upon which a Palestinian state can be established…”

So the Palestinians give up they have in the West Bank and Gaza eternally and settle for a couple of artificial islands which will be like even smaller prisons? Are you thinking of something along the lines of Alcatraz, by any chance? And you think the Chinese will get involved with that?

I’m not going to get into “anti-Christ project”. But I do think that if Israel was to hit a non-nuclear Iran with nuclear weapons. The outrage throughout the non-Western World (and some people within it), that Israels survival would certainly not be certain at all. Many would consider if they were insane enough to use nuclear weapons on a non-nuclear state. That they couldn’t be trusted to not use them on others. So those nations with nuclear weapons outside the West, would need to consider for their own safety whether Israel would need to be destroyed as a rogue state.And do so for the World’s safety.If the West were to attempt to interfere. Then the question would then be needed to be asked. If it was necessary for the World’s safety, if they met Israels fate as well.

If on the other hand Israel was to try to defeat Iran without nuclear weapons. I doubt they would succeed. Iran is too large,united,and willing and able to take losses if need be. Israel would never be able to accept heavy losses. In a war of attrition,Iran wins.They have the ability to hit back extremely hard against Israel. And the likelihood of an internal rebellion and strikes from outside Israel on Israeli cities is very strong.Without the US aiding Israel in an attack,I doubt they would risk it. And if the US did join in an aggression against Iran. There is a strong likelihood of it turning into an international conflict involving many other nations also.

That is not what I deny. But in itself, that says nothing of the man. Many Soros NGOs have some fantastic projects, even if they only serve as a cover for a very evil agenda. That does not devalue those projects by themselves, only the people at the very top who hijack them. The past week I have been quoting Gülen as a very nefarious person, and I was quite shocked to read the articles I quoted, as I am not in the habit of putting people down just due to their associations.

As I pointed out in this thread on the topic of Russia and the US working together, I did not see Russia and Putin changing their legalistic approach. Putin adapts and modifies and parses at times, but never alters his basic operating philosophy.

You gotta be kidding me. This was one of the clearest false flags in history by the most likely Piece of crap to do it.

So while we can rejoice that a US-backed coup has failed, we should have no illusions about how is now in power in Turkey: a ruthless and unpredictable megalomaniac who should never, ever, be trusted.

In an effort to appeal to anyone who graduated from high school, you might want to remove the first phrase above. Don’t get me wrong, I trust USrael/Nato as much as I trust Stalin’s reincarnation, but gimme a freaking break. Next you’ll parrot the lame “erdogan apologized to Putin” premise.

“The Russians had really no option but to accept to work with the USA in Syria. They way in which they did it was very elegant, however: Lavrov and Kerry have agreed to a joint long-term ceasefire whose exact terms are to remain secret…”

This is an elegant way of brainwashing people.

Russia called upon the US to cooperate many times and the US denied every time. Now it is “The Russians had really no option but to accept to work with the USA in Syria.”???

The fact is that Russia has a job to do and is performing the job according to Russian’s terms, even bombing US secret mercenary camps in Syria and regardless of whether the US like it or not.

“Lavrov and Kerry have agreed to a joint long-term ceasefire whose exact terms are to remain secret…”

The reality is something else. Russia is stepping up its bombing campaign in Aleppo and surroundings.

duh???
MOSCOW, July 26. /TASS/. The decision to gun down the Russian warplane returning from an anti-terrorist mission in Syria in November 2015 was taken by the Turkish pilot personally, Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told journalists on Tuesday.
“The decision was taken personally by the pilot,” he said, adding that the decision stemmed from the existing rules under which the right to react is delegated to the military.
“Turkey has no hostile feelings to Russia, and will never have,” he underscored.
Turkey’s warplane downed a Russian bomber in Syria that was on its way back from an anti-terrorist mission on November 24. Turkey said the plane had violated the Turkish airspace. The Russian Defense Ministry however claims that the Su-24 was gunned down over Syria. The crew managed to eject itself. One pilot was shot dead by fire opened from the ground. The second pilot was saved and taken to the Hmeimim airbase in Syria.

Turkish situation still unclear/ Plane compensation has been offered can’t remember where read it, ministers meeting urgently to discuss forthcoming agendas, yet
MOSCOW, July 27. /TASS/. The topic of resuming the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project is complicated and depends on economic and political factors, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Wednesday.
“In general, this is an issues of expediency, an issue of financial conditions and atmosphere of political trust which is the best guarantor for creating favorable economic conditions,” Peskov said.
“This is a complicated issue but no one shuns away from discussing the project, and everyone is interested in discussing expediency and economic attractiveness,” he added.
Work in this sphere “continues in all directions,” the Kremlin spokesman noted, adding that Russia and Turkey are interested in discussing political and economic terms of Turkish Stream project implementation.
“Gazprom has not been sitting around doing nothing as well. Alternative routes are being considered, and they are being discussed with European partners,” he said.
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The Russian and Turkish delegations held talks in Moscow on Tuesday. Among other topics, they also focused on possible resumption of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project.

and
MOSCOW, July 26. /TASS/. Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Tuesday he knows nothing about Russia’s alleged warning to Turkey over the prepared coup attempt.
“I have no information on this matter,” he said, answering a corresponding question. “But I’d like to note that the next day after the coup attempt the most serious backing was provided by Russia that emphasized its support to the legitimate government of Turkey. We highly value the phone call of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This support was very strong,” Simsek said.

MOSCOW, July 26. /TASS/. Turkey wants to take relations with Russia to a whole new level, Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Tuesday after talks in Moscow.
“The main aim is to return every sphere of our relations to the condition before November 24. However, the task is to take our relations to a whole new level,” Simsek said.
“The purpose of the visit to Moscow is to elevate our relations to a new level. Our relations went through trials in the first 8 months. But 20 years of effective cooperation are demonstrating that we can overcome any hardships and are capable of setting any tasks,” the Turkish deputy prime minister said.

Yes no doubt. Erdogan is hated a known thug and murderer and terrorist sympathiser from way back, there is no accounting for the horrible human rights abuses that are known, that were obvious key motivators for Turkish people.

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