Thrill Is Gone: Obama Loses Convention, Media Bounce

This afternoon, Gallup reported its latest presidential tracking poll, finding Obama’s lead had slipped again. Today, he leads Romney, among registered voters, by 1 point, 47-46. This is the same level of support he had before the Democrat convention. More importantly though, it represents a 6-point swing in Obama’s support in one week. Last week he led by 7 points. Clearly, the media will tell us this is trouble for Romney.

Like most modern candidates, Obama got a modest bump out of his convention. What was unique for Obama, however, is that the Democrat-media industrial complex used every available tool to amplify and sustain this bounce. All last week, the media pushed the “campaign is over” theme and obsessed over every perceived misstep made by the Romney campaign.

The entire political universe began convincing themselves–and broadcasting to viewers and readers–that Romney was fading away. And yet, Romney gained ground as Obama lost ground. Obama’s approval rating slipped today under 50% to 49% and his disapproval rose. Expect the media to get very nervous now.

It should be noted that Gallup is still using a Registered Voter screen, which has a well-established bias towards Democrats of 2-5 points. Most other polls have by now switched to a Likely Voter screen and, even in heavily-skewed polls, Romney picks up support in changing to the more reliable screen.

Gallup is also still using a 7-day rolling average in its tracking poll. So, this poll doesn’t fully factor in reactions to the embassy riots and the emerging knowledge that the Obama Administration had advanced warning of the attacks, yet failed to provide extra security. The media have done their best to avoid this story, but items of this magnitude tend to get out.

In the political word, we have a term for a campaign that loses 6 points in just one week; trouble. Unfortunately for the media. This applies now to the Obama campaign, not the Romney campaign.