Wheat politics, Pak styleEVERYTHING is fair in love and war, says an old adage. Not really. In modern warfare, you do adhere to some niceties and basic norms of morality. But when it comes to proxy war, everything is indeed fair. One country that cannot grow out of that mode is Pakistan.

Paradox of inflationINFLATION has come down to 1.96 per cent, a historical low. It is like the pre-war days when prices were low and stable and 10 grams of gold cost less than Rs 30 (now around Rs 4,500). But for the common man in urban and semi-urban areas it is premature to celebrate if it is not unwarranted.

Goa strikes at AIDS
ACCORDING to current projections, India will soon be among the countries that have a high AIDS infected population. There is little that separates India, South Africa and certain other Asian and African countries as far as putting into place an effective strategy for combating the scourge is concerned.

Changed geopolitical balanceAmerica, not China, will call the shots
T. V. RajeswarGENERAL
Musharraf’s January 12 speech and his plan of action heralded a radical change in
the social and political life of Pakistan. He made some positive remarks on putting down terrorism and terrorist organisations operating from Pakistan. The reference to Kashmir being in the blood of Pakistan was intended to lessen the shock treatment he was giving to the entrenched orthodox elements.

MIDDLE

“Optimism of the Old”
J. L. GuptaTHE
silver in the hair. The gold in the teeth. The vision, a bit blurred. The hearing, a little impaired. The bulge around the belly becoming bigger. The usual aches and pains in the joints. All signs of age. The inevitable toll that time takes. But all these make a perfect package. I await my share. Some signs have started to show.

REALPOLITIK

Stifling dissent: PM’s lost kavach
P. RamanPRIME Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is set to lose his best moral kavach. For some time, his aides and admirers, with or without his approval, have been doing everything to deprive him of his stature as a leader who would not use foul means to settle score with political rivals.

TRENDS
& POINTERS

Lewinsky affair to be played out in the KremlinA Russian composer has drawn inspiration from the Monica Lewinsky affair to produce an opera-based at the Kremlin where Lewinsky is portrayed as a KGB double agent, NTV television said today. The Saratov Opera has already agreed to show “Monica in the Kremlin” by Vitali
Okorokov.

EVERYTHING is fair in love and war, says an old adage. Not really. In modern warfare, you do adhere to some niceties and basic norms of morality. But when it comes to proxy war, everything is indeed fair. One country that cannot grow out of that mode is Pakistan. Instead of listening to sane advice pouring in from all over the world and trying to mend fences with India, it is hell-bent on harming its neighbour every way it can. What it could not do at Kargil or the Red Fort or the Parliament building, is sought to be achieved through yet another blow below the belt. It has announced that it won’t allow transit facility for 50,000 tonnes of wheat procured by the World Food Programme (WFP) to be sent to Afghanistan on the specious plea that the wheat could have been “infested with germs and diseases”. This is a rumour war at its dirtiest. In one fell stroke, Pakistan has tried to discredit the humanitarian work that India has been doing in Afghanistan and elsewhere. It has tried to sow seeds of suspicion in the mind of the WFP. But those who are familiar with its old tricks are unlikely to fall a prey. While India had provided 50,000 tonnes of wheat to the WFP for Afghan refugees, Pakistan on its part had sold two lakh tonnes of wheat to the WFP. India’s gesture is a sincere attempt at providing humanitarian help to its Afghan brethren, Pakistan has extended a “helping hand” only for monetary gains. Lest India got credit for a sterling deed, it has thought of this stratagem.

The allegation also makes eminent business sense for Pakistani Shylocks. Afghanistan needs wheat urgently and if somehow the supply from India can be stalled, it would be forced to buy more from Pakistan. Simple, isn’t it! Indian wheat is not exactly the best in the world, but to say that it was infested with seed-borne fungus and diseases like karnal bunt, which could harm wheat production during germination of seed, is a figment of someone’s sick imagination. In trying to harm India, Pakistan has also turned the screws on Afghanistan. The land-locked country gets most of its supplies through Pakistan or Iran. In none too subtle a manner, Islamabad has warned it not to make its purchases from India. This ominous warning has come at a time when the armies of India and Pakistan are in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. The unwarranted provocation will only make it more difficult to defuse tension. But India need not lose sleep over it. Such behaviour may have been unexpected from some other country. Pakistan is in a class of its own. Anyone expecting anything better from the perpetrators of the Kargil perfidy is living in a make-believe world.

INFLATION has come down to 1.96 per cent, a historical low. It is like the pre-war days when prices were low and stable and 10 grams of gold cost less than Rs 30 (now around Rs 4,500). But for the common man in urban and semi-urban areas it is premature to celebrate if it is not unwarranted. It is a statistical illusion. The low inflation rate is mainly due to three factors. Light speed diesel and furnace oil cost one-third less than last year and fuel determines 14 per cent of the wholesale price index (WPI) movement. Two, vegetables and fruits are cheaper as they generally are in this season. Manufactured goods, with a huge weightage of 66 per cent, have shed 2.6 per cent of their prices mainly because of a shrinkage of demand and that means the growth rate of the economy is slipping. That is bad news. Inflation has been coming down this financial year but only at the WPI level. The government also monitors prices of goods which the urban middle class needs and buys, unlike furnace oil and manufactured goods. The prices of commodities in this list have gone up by about 8 per cent until November last year, for which period official figures are available. Dearer is education, medical treatment, transport, house rent and a whole range of kitchen needs marketed by companies.

Two points need to be made. There is always a difference between the WPI and consumer price index (CPI) for various groups. The government releases the WPI first and the CPI after a considerable time lag. What hits the newspaper headlines is the WPI and the CPI is nearly ignored. It is the latter that affects the living standard of the people. For instance, an analysis by a knowledgeable writer proves that food prices for industrial workers (urban manual workers) has registered an increase of 5.7 per cent when the WPI rose by an attractive 2.87 per cent last November. Similarly, urban white collar workers paid about 8 per cent more for their needs other than food and clothing. This is mainly because the Centre has slashed food prices and keen competition has lowered clothing prices, prominently in this region.
Meanwhile, a fierce debate is on the RBI dictum that inflation should be between 5 per cent and 7 per cent as recommended by the S.S.Tarapore committee in 1997 to nudge the economic growth rate to a robust level.

ACCORDING to current projections, India will soon be among the countries that have a high AIDS infected population. There is little that separates India, South Africa and certain other Asian and African countries as far as putting into place an effective strategy for combating the scourge is concerned. Apart from holding seminars and conferences, there is little that the Indian policy-makers have done for halting the spread of AIDS among slum dwellers and jail inmates. Instead, lack of awareness of the true nature of the ailment has resulted in the stigmatisation of those suffering from AIDS. Even doctors and nurses avoid coming into contact with AIDS patients. Against this dismal background a strategy that is being discussed in Goa may at least provide some direction to the AIDS elimination programme. Dr Suresh Amonkar, Goa's Minister for Health, came up with an innovate proposal during the assembly debate on the spread of AIDS in what is known to the outside world as a prime tourist destination. More tourists mean more foreign exchange earnings. However, on the flip side is the dismal picture of the booming international tourism business making Goa and Rajasthan the most "AIDS-prone zones" in the country. Dr Amonkar suggested compulsory HIV test for couples planning to marry. On the face of it, the proposal appears to be based on sound logic.

Of course, there was the usual howl of protest from certain ill-informed sections of the legislature. However, the redeeming feature of the debate on the sensitive subject was the wide support that Dr Amonkar's proposal received from senior leaders cutting across party lines. From current indications, it appears that Goa may become the first state to have a law making HIV test mandatory for couples planning to get married. One factor that has come in the way of the implementation of the programme launched by the National AIDS Control Organisation is the lack of secrecy of the names of the patients who test positive. It is a serious shortcoming that is behind the failure of most programmes that require an element of secrecy for their successful implementation. Can Goa show the way to the rest of the country on the sensitive subject of AIDS control through innovative legislation and efficient implementation?

GENERAL
Musharraf’s January 12 speech and his plan of action heralded a radical change in
the social and political life of Pakistan. He made some positive remarks on putting down terrorism and terrorist organisations operating from Pakistan. The reference to Kashmir being in the blood of Pakistan was intended to lessen the shock treatment he was giving to the entrenched orthodox elements.

Going back to the events of September 11, when Al-Qaeda terrorists attacked the financial and military symbols of the USA on the American soil, it is amazing that so many fundamental changes should have taken place in West Asia and particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan in such a short time. After the massive round-the-clock bombing started by the USA in October the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda have been effectively wiped out. Mullah Mohd Omar and Osama bin Laden may be alive but for all practical purposes they have ceased to exist. Afghanistan has taken a rebirth after years of war, anarchy and chaos. The new regime in Kabul headed by Mr Hamid Karzai and his newly appointed Chief Justice have declared that Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden will be tried as criminals for their horrible crimes. What a change from Osama bin Laden as the champion of Islamic militancy being spread all over the world, with nearly a generation of young men becoming Al-Qaeda terrorists willing to give up their lives at the bidding of the Saudi fugitive has been exposed and vanquished within a short time by the might of the American military, and, more importantly, by the unity of mind of democratic nations and governments.

Afghanistan is emerging as an important western ally in West Asia and Kandahar has been chosen as a major air base by the US Air Force. The peace-keeping forces from Western nations as well as the US Special Force are bound to stay in Afghanistan for sometime till stability takes root in that country and a new government representing all sections of people comes into existence later this year under UN auspices. The new Afghanistan government has asked Pakistan to keep off while it has declared its intention to forge close ties with India. The Foreign Minister, the Defence Minister and the Home Minister of Afghanistan, who are from the erstwhile Northern Alliance, have had close links with India and their families had lived in Delhi, enjoying the fruits of an open secular democratic society at a time when Afghanistan was in total chaos. Very importantly, Afghanistan has once and for all ceased to be a source of Islamic terrorists infiltrating into Kashmir through Pakistan.

General Musharraf exhibited remarkable agility in conceding all that the USA demanded of him before it launched its attack on the Taliban. He did not have much difficulty in convincing his countrymen about the inevitability of complying with American demands and the huge benefits Pakistan would be reaping in the process. What the General did not anticipate was that there would be no support from the USA or the UK on his equivocal stand on trans-border terrorism in Kashmir. Terrorism was the prime target of the USA. After India repeatedly pointed out that there could not be different standards in putting down terrorism and that there could be no good terrorists and bad terrorists, both President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair took the firm stand that the menace should be eliminated irrespective of its political, social or religious contents or direction. It was this part which General Musharraf was unable to digest in the early stages. When Jaish-e-Mohammad activist attacked the Srinagar Assembly on October 1, his comments were equivocal. After December 13, which witnessed the daring attack on the Indian Parliament in session, there was no scope for doubt for any of the western leaders about forcing Pakistan to tame terrorism without further
fudging. In his historic the Pakistan President struck hard at fundamentalism which General Zia had thrust upon the polity 1989. The announcement that no new mosque could be constructed without government clearance was a major step. General Musharraf’s statement that Pakistan could not be used for mounting terrorist attacks on any other country was intended for India. Hopefully, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad and their various offices throughout Pakistan would now cease to function. Madarasas are to be brought under government control, and they have to teach science, history and English also, and not merely theological lessons. The General asked the Pakistan to realise that they had to get out of the rut and become a modem state. He did not have the courage to say that Pakistan should become a secular state as he stopped short of it.

He did not make any commitment regarding the 20 top terrorists whose names figured in the list given to Pakistan. These names and full details were also given to the USA and the UK. Fifteen of them are Indian nationals and most of them have been charged in the various courts of law. Chargesheets being public documents their copies have been reportedly given to Pakistan as well as to the USA and the UK. Most of them have also figured in Interpol alerts. If all these details do not convince President Musharraf to realise his responsibility to comply with India’s request, it is nothing short of arrogance. If Pakistani can hand over its national Kansi, who was wanted by
the USA for having shot dead two CIA operatives in Washington a couple of years earlier, and that too to CIA operatives on the Pakistani soil without any court clearance, why does General Musharraf evade the issue? And on what grounds did he hand over the accredited Taliban diplomat in Islamabad of the US forces?

As for those involved in the hijacking of IC-814, there is ample evidence of their having been part of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network, and the hijacking itself being traced to Osama bin Laden and also indirectly connected with the horrid events of September 11. President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair are reportedly convinced that Pakistan should hand over at least some of the most wanted criminals of Indian origin, and if General Musharraf does not comply with within a reasonable time, India is bound to impose more sanctions such as asking for the recall of the Pakistan High Commissioner in New Delhi, withdrawal of the most favoured nation status in trade with Pakistan, restrictions on the issue of visas and even a review of the treaty on sharing of waters. India seems to have assured both the USA and the UK, by the Prime Minister as well as the Home Minister, that there will be no war with Pakistan, much less a nuclear holocaust, as feared by western countries. It is now for these two countries to force General Musharraf to discharge his responsibility towards India.

While announcing the steps taken to put down terrorism. General Musharraf should have been candid enough to admit that the role and activities of the ISI would be reviewed. Was it not the ISI which was primarily responsible for structuring the Taliban in Afghanistan and terrorism in Kashmir, with close liaison with the most regressive extremist organisations and their leaders in Pakistan? Youssaf Bodansky, the well-known US expert on terrorism, had recently described how the ISI distributed thousands of Kalashnikovs, meant for war against the Russians in Afghanistan, to Kashmiri terrorists. If the ISI is allowed the same free run, General Musharraf’s declaration that Pakistan would continue to extend moral and diplomatic support to Kashmir militants would have an
ominous indication of the uninterrupted subversive role of the ISI.

At the geopolitical level, the post-September 11 events have inevitably resulted in moving Pakistan away from the Chinese dominance and quietly but surely bringing it under America’s decisive wings. General Musharraf may be visiting Beijing as many times as he likes, but the post-Afghanistan scenario has brought the USA and its armed might squarely to the soil of Pakistan and its erstwhile strategic backyard of Afghanistan. Henceforth it will be the USA which will call the shots, even though China may continue to be the main supplier of arms, including nuclear and missile parts. To that extent the geopolitical balance has quitely but surely tilted to the advantage of India.

THE
silver in the hair. The gold in the teeth. The vision, a bit blurred. The hearing, a little impaired. The bulge around the belly becoming bigger. The usual aches and pains in the joints. All signs of age. The inevitable toll that time takes. But all these make a perfect package. I await my share. Some signs have started to show.

There is a distinct diffidence in facing difficulties. Problem in keeping the promises. The spring in the air is no longer enough to raise my spirits. The mind seems to be moving from passion to pension. Rheumatism and reminiscences are becoming my constant companions. A weak end to the weekend sums up the situation.

The story had started in the year 1942. But time ticks. Imperceptibly. Yet continuously. Moment by moment, the hours, days, months and years have passed away. Today, I have seen the passing of 60 summers. In the meantime, I have gradually graduated. From a growing infant to a grandfather.

Any change during the six decades? Yes! My father was a realist. I am an incorrigible optimist. He was careful about everything. About his habits and health. Alcohol, tea and tobacco were a total taboo. I am carefully careless. I have savoured the good things of life. And through the years, the thought of age has caused me no concern. The passing years have given me no pain. I have enjoyed each day of my earthly existence. Today, I look forward to being old. With a lot of optimism. To retire. Before I begin to feel tired.

Does not the thought of age cause any awe? No! I see no cause to cry.

The silver in the hair? I like to grow gray with grace. When there is snow on the top, it is fire within. The last flicker of the flame? A good thought. But do not believe it.

The cataract in the eyes? The failing sight. The blinding glare of the carlights on the road at night. True, I have to wear glasses. To be able to read and write. Even to drive around the town. Yes! But imagine the advantage. I shall no longer have to see a lot of suffering in the world around. The unseen should remain unknown.

What about the clogged ears? The impaired hearing? This would be my shield against today’s national pastime. Against the constant complaints and the continuing criticism. I shall hear no one decry and disparage an old friend. It is God’s way of protecting me from hearing a lot of petty talk. To avoid and ignore what I do not like.

The bulging belly? It really feels like a curve. Enables me to throw some weight around. And it keeps me from stopping too low. From running away from problems.

The aches and pains? These are, no doubt, bad problems. A disadvantage of age? No! These help you to remember the truth. To guard against all the misadventure that was a routine in the younger days.

And age does not merely keep me away from evil. It really brings elevation. The grand and priceless pleasure of being a grandparent. It comes only with age. The small children pampering me with their attention. Showering their innocent and selfless love. Their presence brings peace. A pure delight. A sheer joy. I have experienced it. It awaits everyone.

PRIME Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is set to lose his best moral kavach. For some time, his aides and admirers, with or without his approval, have been doing everything to deprive him of his stature as a leader who would not use foul means to settle score with political rivals. May be due to the Power God’s maya, but of late, Vajpayee has been watching helplessly while his prized asset is being bartered for temporary political gains

While in Opposition, Vajpayee had pioneered the protests against muffling of dissent and of genuine political protests under Indira Gandhi. Now as Prime Minister, he has begun resorting to the same methods, in the same crude fashion, against his political adversaries. His establishment has been almost mimicking what was then being condemned as ‘authoritarian highhandedness’.

When a beleaguered Narasimha Rao had proceeded against politicians who had figured in the hawala list, it was described as an act of political vendetta. What is taking place now is worse than what Rao did or what Indira Gandhi had done against Karunanidhi. Selective resort to tax raids, arrests and harassment under all available laws, like the Prevention of Corruption Act and FERA, against all those who dare to question the establishment have become the order of the day.

They range from the continuous procedural torture of Laloo Prasad Yadav who influences some 54 Lok Sabha seats, to the disciplining of Outlook magazine and the harassment of Tehelka investors. Earlier, it was the dreaded MISA. Now it is the more dreadful tax raids and FERA. Laloo’s case epitomises the degree of orchestrated political vendetta against an individual politician. He has been regularly in and out of prison for months for his involvement in the fodder scam. No doubt, Laloo is not a paragon of virtue. There is no need to recount all his misrule and the kind of politics he has been following.

Ironically, this over-enthusiasm displayed by his tormentors has only helped him romp back to power as a victim of vilification and persecution. This has been the underlining sentiment which had sustained Jayalalitha and Sukh Ram and the old path-breaker Chimanbhai Patel. In Laloo’s case, the fodder scam predates his rule. Chief ministers before him — and even some senior BJP politicians — had been sucked into the racketeer’s network. Laloo has never been the kingpin but was one of the main beneficiaries of the fake purchase and distribution of the non-existent fodder for about two decades. The kind of investigations and framing of charges have made the scam look like an all-Laloo creation.

Public criticism of the way some CBI officials supped with his rival politicians and joint efforts to influence the high court and even their calling the army directly has been legion. His repeated arrests had made the Supreme Court fix a cap of six months for detention. Even this was ignored. Eminent jurists have decried the filing of a large number of separate cases in the same fodder scam with the mala fide intention of keeping a formidable political rival in jail.

Those in power have a tendency to shut their eyes to the realities on the ground. Instead of punishing Laloo for his involvement in corruption, such ludicrous tactics will only provide him with sympathisers who otherwise would have resented his ways. Indira Gandhi had failed to take note of the simmering silent protests among the middle classes against her draconian methods. Lack of open protests and sufficient coverage by media were being taken as approval. Vajpayee also seems to have been caught in the same trap of self-deception.

The Tehelka case and the kind of persecution its leading lights are subjected to look unbelievably crude even if a fraction of the allegations prove to be true. Even in the worst of time, Indira Gandhi had not slapped so many summonses against The Indian Express, then her bete noire. Apparently, all this is aimed at forcing its stake holders to snap links with the “erring” dotcom. This had made Tehelka seek help from “those who don’t deal” with the government or those who could be hoodwinked by it. Those who have stood ground — like young professionals Shankar Sharma and

Devina Mehra of First Global — are being subjected to innumerable hardship. Their business establishments were forced shut under crude intimidation. The firm, which had 14.5 per cent stake in Tehelka, was slapped with a claimed 200 summons and 25 raids by the enforcement agencies. Their travel has been banned, their properties attached and their friends and relatives crudely harassed.

The entire official machinery has been unleashed to force them into submission. All this for Tehelka’s role in exposing corruption in defence deals and politicians’ role in fixing contracts, some thing which was widely known ever since the Bofors exposure. It is the height of politicians’ intolerance with legitimate dissent. The message is more dreadful: don’t dare to criticise those in the establishment.

The case of First Global’s Shankar Sharma shows to what extent the present government has gone to arm twist and destroy an Indian global venture which otherwise has a clean record of a decade. The main charge against them is that the firm had misused the ‘Mauritius route’ to drain out funds. Dozens of other firms have committed the same economic crime. Recently, the RBI had admitted that it did not even have specific data on such outflow. Then how could the NDA government single out one firm? Congress MP Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi has demanded from the finance minister a list of firms which had misused the same provisions. This has not been done for obvious reasons.

The intolerance does not end there. As eminent jurist A.G. Noorani points out, Vajpayee has the distinction of being the first prime minister under whom the government has asked a commission of inquiry to probe the credentials of the media which had exposed a scam. All the while, the government has not so far filed even a FIR against the politicians and businessmen who have been shown in tapes as having taken money. Last year, we also had the raids on the financiers of Outlook weekly. Its editor had attributed it to the write-ups critical of the PMO in the magazine. All that we know is that the weekly has since then considerably mellowed down its presentation.

In the past few months, there has been a spate of reports about the misuse of enforcement directorate, etc., to suit the political interests of the ruling party and its business friends. Officers, who were instrumental in the exposure of a leading political conduit were transferred overnight, literally. One of the officials was told to take up a punishment post within 16 hours. There has been another similar episode in the new year.

Recently, Central Vigilance Commissioner N. Vittal had made a set of suggestions to reduce the scope for political patronage in corruption. They include withdrawal of all exemptions under the Income Tax Act, ending the discretionary powers of the customs and excise officials and elimination of ‘auctioning’ lucrative posts by making transfer procedures transparent and specific. But the misuse of draconian powers for political vendetta and muzzling of genuine dissent belongs to a different category. What is at stake is the Prime Minister’s personal credibility as the one committed to the dharma of democracy and fair play.

A Russian composer has drawn inspiration from the Monica Lewinsky affair to produce an opera-based at the Kremlin where Lewinsky is portrayed as a KGB double agent, NTV television said today. The Saratov Opera has already agreed to show “Monica in the Kremlin” by Vitali Okorokov.

Okorokov said the climax of the opera will be when Lewinsky meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and is revealed to be a double agent working for the KGB and US intelligence services.

“I wanted (the opera to have) a woman who loves and could be loved,” said Okorokov, who added that at the end of the opera Lewinsky marries the Russian President’s chief security guard.

Lewinsky’s affair with former US President Bill Clinton while working in White House led to the President’s impeachment in 1998.
AFP

Bottom-biting boss wins harassment case

A New Zealand woman whose drunken boss tried to bite her bottom in a bar but lost his false teeth in the process has lost a sexual harassment case, it was reported
today. The woman claimed 10,000 New Zealand dollars (about US $ 4,200) for constructive dismissal but an employment tribunal ruled the bottom biting bid had nothing to with the company she worked for because it happened outside work hours, Wellington’s Dominion newspaper reported.

She told the tribunal she was in a local bar when her supervisor, who was “quite intoxicated”, yelled out to her: “Jesus, you don’t scrub up too bad, do you?” She said he then dropped to his knees and moved towards her with another employee egging him on to bite her bottom.

She grabbed hold of his head and pushed it away, but in the ensuing scuffle, his teeth fell out, causing the bar to erupt in laughter.
DPA

Guard with tattoos shown door

“Sarge”, a burly security guard for the British band New Order, was kicked out of a posh Auckland restaurant because the owner claimed the rash of tattoos all over his arms were offensive, it was reported.

“I’ve worked for heaps of famous bands and toured the world with New Order and Joy Division for 20 years and I have never been treated like this anywhere,” Sarge told the Sunday Star-Times Restaurant owner Leo Molloy said, he required a reasonable standard of dress and tattoos were not allowed in his restaurant.
DPA

To one who experiences sensations, meditations, I teach the truth of suffering. I teach the truth of the arising of suffering. I teach the truth of the cessation of suffering and I teach the truth of the path leading to the cessation of suffering.