Florida tops nation in latest census data on population influx

SARASOTA, Fla. — Florida's booming economy fueled an unprecedented surge of migration to the Sunshine State from elsewhere in the country between 2000 and 2004.

During that span, Florida easily led the nation in net migration--the difference between the number of people moving in and out--with an average annual increase of about 191,000.

That's nearly three times more than Arizona, the second-most popular destination. And it's a substantial increase compared with the 1990s, when Florida netted an average of 112,500 people annually.

Analysts say a combination of plentiful jobs and low mortgage rates is responsible for the increased movement into Florida.

"A booming economy has created a lot of jobs, and the housing market has made it relatively easy for people to sell where they're moving from and buy homes in Florida," said Stanley K. Smith, director of population studies at the University of Florida's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Florida has long been a magnet for residents of other states, but the rapid influx of residents surprised population experts, who had predicted a dip in growth leading up to 2011. That's when the oldest members of the massive Baby Boom generation begin turning 65, leading to an expected flood of retirees moving to Florida.

More than a decade ago, the experts projected Florida's 2005 population would be about 16.8 million. Instead, it reached 17.9 million.

Florida State University political scientist Lance deHaven-Smith said the state has led the nation in growth in the number of jobs over the last five years. From August 2003 to August 2004, he noted, Florida added 155,000 jobs, or about 30 percent more than two other large states, Texas and California, and twice as many as New York.

Tourism, health care, construction and agriculture have led the growth in jobs.

"The economy has been very strong in Florida," deHaven-Smith said. "The number of jobs added has been remarkable. We had 10 percent of the employment growth in the country over the last five years."

Jobs are one of the biggest reasons people decide to move from one state to another, said Marc Perry, who wrote the census report analyzing the national population shifts.

More than 75 percent of people who move are in their working years, Perry said, while less than 10 percent are over 65.

Florida has drawn thousands of retirees annually from other states. Those retirees, in turn, lead to jobs in businesses that cater to them, from grocery stores to the health industry.

During the 1990s, many other areas of the country were doing well economically, Perry said, prompting fewer people to relocate. But since 2000, the economies in states such as North Carolina, Colorado and many in the Northeast and Midwest have been weaker.

"Florida's economy, relatively speaking, is better," Perry said.

Since 2000, Florida's population has increased by about 1.8 million people, according to census estimates. About 1 million of the increase is from domestic migration, 500,000 from international migration and the rest from births, Perry said.

The population growth provides an economic boost, but deHaven-Smith said there's a downside, too. Most of the jobs pay low wages. And the state has done a poor job of building infrastructure, from roads to schools and sewers, to keep up with the growth, he said.

"We are lagging. We've really continued to underfinance the growth," he said. "You can see it in the traffic on the expressways. We should ... prepare for the downside. But Florida is not a state that takes action in advance very often."