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Hollinger Profiles: Indiana Pacers

Ron Artest
PER 23.52
League Avg: +8.52
Nobody doubts Artest's talent. The only question is if he can keep his head screwed on straight for an entire season. A forgotten footnote to his season-long suspension for the brawl in Detroit is that the Pacers had already suspended Artest earlier in the month because he had asked for time off.

In the seven games he played, Artest was a terror, with a top-10 PER and his usual manic defense. The Pacers can only hope that the year off mellowed him enough that his distracting antics come to an end and he focuses on being an All-Star basketball player.

Jonathan Bender
PER 5.62
League Avg: -9.38
Bender looked like he was ready to break out in 2004-05, but knee problems kept him on the shelf virtually the entire season. The knee injuries have been persistent enough that one wonders if he'll ever stay healthy for a full season, but Bender has considerable potential as a scorer if he can get on the court. The 7-footer has a nice mid-range jump shot that he can shoot over anybody and handles the ball well for his size. His length also is a major asset on defense, allowing him to play several feet off his man and still contest shots. He needs to add more strength, however, and will have to battle his way back into a crowded forward rotation.

Austin Croshere
PER 13.52
League Avg: -1.48
Croshere became the starting power forward after O'Neal's suspension but gradually faded from the rotation as the year wore on. Despite his horrible shooting percentages, Croshere is a decent offensive player who has 3-point range and uses the threat of his outside shot to set up his drives to the basket. That's actually the most potent part of his game -- Croshere averaged better than a free-throw attempt per two field-goal attempts and shot 88.3 percent from the line. He struggled in his supposed specialty though, by hitting only 25.9 percent from downtown. In addition, the penalty for his aggression in going to the basket was a high Turnover Ratio.

Croshere's offense is getting tough to live with, however, because his defense is so bad. A competent defender in his younger days, Croshere's blocked shot rate is but a fraction of what it was in his mid-20s, and his Rebound Rate has declined too. Plus, he has slow feet and isn't strong enough to push opposing players out of the post. Overall, his Defensive PER was among the worst in basketball.

Croshere won't be going anywhere since he's signed for two more years at over $7 million per, but in order to justify even a portion of that income, he needs to either improve his shooting percentage or ramp up the defense. Due to the crowded frontcourt, he'll need to do that just to get onto the court.

Most similar at age: Sam Perkins

Jeff Foster
PER 15.38
League Avg: +0.38
Foster is one of the best rebounders in all of basketball, especially at the offensive end, because he is unusually quick for a man of his size and aggressively chases caroms. He had the fourth-best Rebound Rate among centers, and those rebounds provided most of his offense in the form of easy put-backs. Foster is a good leaper who can finish dunks, but he's usually looking for rebounding position rather than getting himself open for a shot. He also will shoot an 18-foot jumper on occasion, but he should probably stop. Foster shot 20.7 percent on jump shots but they accounted for nearly a third of his attempts last season. If he deleted that from his arsenal, he would shoot over 60 percent from the field.

Because of his quickness, Foster is a fine defensive player who is at his best when matched up against quick forwards. In strength match-ups, he doesn't fare quite as well, but his rebounding is an asset and he's quick enough to step out on guards against the pick-and-roll. Despite Foster's quickness and leaping ability, however, he's a terrible shot-blocker who had only 12 all season -- three fewer than Anthony Johnson.

Foster should retake his spot in the starting lineup this year after hip problems slowed him down in 2004-05. His ability to create havoc on the glass should be an upgrade from Davis. Ironically, as the Similarity Scores show, Foster plays as a younger version of the man he's replacing.

Most similar at age: Dale Davis

Eddie Gill
PER 9.41
League Avg: -5.59
The Pacers signed Gill when the injuries hit and he ended up being their backup point guard for most of the season. He was a pretty bad one too. Gill shot incredibly poorly, hitting 33.5 percent, but his stewardship of the offense was even worse. Gill was near the bottom of his position in both Assist Ratio and Turnover Ratio, and he nearly accomplished a difficult feat for a point guard by having more turnovers than assists. He was adequate defensively and on the boards, but unless his offense shows major improvement, he won't be able to hang on to a job.

Most similar at age: Greg Anthony

Danny Granger
PER --
At 22, Granger is old for an NBA rookie these days, but his collegiate numbers suggest he'll contribute immediately and be among the best rebounding small forwards in basketball. Granger averaged nearly a rebound every three minutes, and his averages of over two steals and two blocks are further indicators of how active he was at New Mexico. Offensively, he shapes up even better. Granger averaged 25 points per 40 minutes as a senior while shooting 52 percent from the field and 43 percent on 3s. How he fell to the Pacers with the 17th pick is a mystery, but he'll be a big improvement on James Jones.

David Harrison
PER 12.77
League Avg: -2.23
Indiana's first-round draft pick in 2004 put up a reasonably solid performance at the offensive end where he shot 57.6 percent and showed some flashes of having a decent post game. His TS% was among the best at his position and he scored at a decent rate for a big man. He needs to be more careful with the ball and set fewer illegal screens though, because his Turnover Ratio was way too high.

The bigger disappointment was Harrison's mysterious lack of aggression on the glass. Only Peja Drobnjak and Clifford Robinson were worse among centers, and neither of them are seven feet tall and weigh 280 pounds. Harrison also struggled at the defensive end, although that's hardly unusual for a rookie, and his size and strength should allow him to be a good post defender in time.

Harrison had minor knee surgery and missed the second half of the season, but he should return healthy for his sophomore campaign. If he can improve his work on the glass, his offensive skills may allow him to elbow aside Pollard and Croshere for minutes off the Pacers bench.

Most similar at age: Jelani McCoy

Stephen Jackson
PER 15.87
League Avg: +0.87
Other than that little incident in Detroit, Jackson had a very solid first season as a Pacer. He stepped up his offensive contribution when O'Neal went out late in the season and ended up averaging a career-best 21.1 points per 40 minutes. While his field-goal percentage dipped, his overall numbers didn't suffer too much because he got to the line more and hit a career-high 83 percent.

Jackson has steadily cut down his Turnover Ratio during his pro career, and last year's drop was noteworthy because he went to the basket as often as ever. Jackson dribbles the ball extremely high, which makes him vulnerable to deflections, but he has become better at protecting the ball and avoiding high-traffic areas. He's also a good scorer in transition, which is amazing for a guy who appears to run without bending his knees.

Jackson had to be the Pacers' defensive stopper last season, which was perhaps a bit beyond his skills. While he's a good athlete and has the size to alter shots, he's not particularly nimble and his instincts are more as a scorer than as a stopper. He'll gladly relinquish that duty to Ron Artest this season.

Most similar at age: Walt Williams

Sarunas Jasikevicius
PER --
A forgettable player while at Maryland, Jasikevicius has blossomed in Europe. He's been the starting point guard for the Euroleague champion for three straight seasons, and he earned further notoriety when he led Lithuania to a win over the U.S. in the 2004 Olympics.

At this point, however, he may be overrated. Three other players on his Maccabi Tel Aviv team rated higher (Maceo Baston, Anthony Parker and Nikola Vujcic), and of his past three seasons, only one has been statistically impressive.

The Pacers signed him for a three-year deal in the offseason, and though they may have overpaid, he'll be an upgrade on Anthony Johnson.

Anthony Johnson
PER 14.25
League Avg: -0.75
Johnson chose a good time to have his best pro season, because he was able to help the Pacers weather the loss of Tinsley and subsequently squeak into the playoffs. Johnson was particularly solid as a distributor, as he got into the paint on pick-and-roll plays and repeatedly found the open man. He ended up with the 11th-best Assist Ratio in the league. Offensively, Johnson has the size to post up and is a decent 3-point shooter. However, his scoring rates have never been impressive because he's slow and can't jump.

Defensively, Johnson's lack of speed was a bit of a problem, and he tended to foul jump shooters a lot. He mostly made up for it because he's bigger and stronger than most guards, helped out on the boards, and didn't make mistakes. Johnson is extremely unlikely to repeat last season's performance, so the Pacers will welcome Tinsley back to the lineup with open arms. The bigger question is whether he'll even be the second string, as Sarunas Jasikevicius may steal most of Johnson's minutes.

Most similar at age: Chris Childs

Fred Jones
PER 13.28
League Avg: -1.72
Jones was supposed to come off the bench for 15-20 minutes a night but instead led the team in minutes due to all the injuries. He improved his offense somewhat from his second season, particularly his jump shot. Jones hit 38 percent on 3-pointers, making him less dependent on drives to the basket for his points. He can be a spectacular dunker when he goes to the basket, but he isn't very elusive as a dribbler and so he doesn't get to the rim as often as one might expect. Consequently, his scoring rate is low. He is a good passer though.

Jones' defensive stats were much worse than they were in 2003-04, because he didn't have Ron Artest to bail him out. Jones is small for a shooting guard so bigger, more physical guards gave him problems. Despite his leaping ability, he's also a poor rebounder who should get more aggressive on the boards.

Barring injury, Jones will move back to his bench role this season and is a perfectly adequate player in that setting. But 2004-05 exposed why he's not quite ready for duty as a full-time starter.

Most similar at age: Khalid Reeves

Jermaine O'Neal
PER 22.85
League Avg: +7.85
O'Neal was a more potent offensive force last season because he settled for fewer jumpers and drove to the rim, especially with his improved left hand. As a result he averaged about one free-throw attempt for every two field-goal attempts, compared to his prior-year ratio of 1 to 3. This accounts for the improvement in his TS%.

Plus, O'Neal was more aggressive about going for his shots, leading to another big spike in his Usage Rate. As a result, he scored 27.9 points per 40 minutes, but he might want to tone it down a bit. While O'Neal can create shots from the post at will, his TS% shows he's not a high-percentage player. He's also a poor passer, leaving him vulnerable to double-teams. Indiana averaged a tenth of a point more when O'Neal was off the court than when he was on it, supporting the view that he should focus more on quality than on quantity.

With the return of Artest and the rest of Indiana's walking wounded, reducing O'Neal's shot attempts shouldn't be a problem. Last year the Pacers didn't have as much of a choice -- pounding it into O'Neal was one of their few consistent offensive weapons. With more options this season, force-feeding O'Neal should become a lower priority.

Despite my misgivings about his shot frequency, O'Neal's defense, rebounding, and post game make him one of the best big men in basketball. Having him for 82 games instead of the 44 he played a year ago improves the Pacers' outlook considerably.

Most similar at age: Derrick Coleman

Scot Pollard
PER 11.12
League Avg: -3.88
Pollard is a very solid defensive center when his back allows, as he is physical enough to bang with opposing centers and versatile enough to help guards against the screen-and-roll. However, the bad back limited him to 49 games last season and he rarely had his usual verve when he played. His Rebound Rate is a good example, as it has declined sharply from his days in Sacramento.

Pollard is a good finisher around the basket with an above-average left hand, but he contributes little else. He has trouble with illegal screen calls, which is where he accumulates most of his turnovers, and has no post game to speak of. But if he can overcome the back trouble, he's still good enough to be a productive frontcourt sub for 15 minutes a night. However, Pollard might want to keep his bags packed until February. His contract expires after the season, which means he's the likely bait if the Pacers go shopping for additional help at the trade deadline.

Most similar at age: Amal McCaskill

Jamaal Tinsley
PER 18.57
League Avg: +3.57
With Indiana's three best scorers suspended, Tinsley shifted his energies from setting up others to scoring himself. He raised his 40-minute scoring average by six points and more than tripled his rate of free-throw attempts. Tinsley was especially effective going left. He would come down the left side of the court, fake a crossover and continue hard to the basket. The move was so convincing that defenders bit nearly every time. Also, Tinsley has improved as a shooter, making 37 percent on 3-pointers for the second straight season after struggling with the jumper early in his career.

The Pacers needed the scoring, but Tinsley should return to his more natural role as a distributor this season. A point of emphasis should be reducing turnovers, which have plagued him his entire career. However, one good sign is that Tinsley managed to hold his Turnover Ratio steady last year despite the drastic increase in shots. It also might help him if Indiana ran more, as Tinsley is at his best in transition.

Defensively, Tinsley is one of the best guards in basketball. He has good quickness and fast hands that plucked two steals a game. Moreover, he's a good rebounder for a guard and is big enough to defend shooting guards if the situation requires.

Overall, he's on the cusp of becoming an All-Star point guard if he can ever stay healthy. Tinsley has played only 92 games the past two seasons and has limped through Indiana's playoff defeats in two straight postseasons. While much of the attention will be on Ron Artest, Tinsley is arguably a bigger key to Indiana's championship hopes. If he's in one piece in June, the Pacers will be tough to beat.

Re: ESPN Insider request....

Danny Granger
PER --
At 22, Granger is old for an NBA rookie these days, but his collegiate numbers suggest he'll contribute immediately and be among the best rebounding small forwards in basketball. Granger averaged nearly a rebound every three minutes, and his averages of over two steals and two blocks are further indicators of how active he was at New Mexico. Offensively, he shapes up even better. Granger averaged 25 points per 40 minutes as a senior while shooting 52 percent from the field and 43 percent on 3s. How he fell to the Pacers with the 17th pick is a mystery, but he'll be a big improvement on James Jones.

Re: ESPN Insider request....

Jackson has steadily cut down his Turnover Ratio during his pro career, and last year's drop was noteworthy because he went to the basket as often as ever. Jackson dribbles the ball extremely high, which makes him vulnerable to deflections, but he has become better at protecting the ball and avoiding high-traffic areas. He's also a good scorer in transition, which is amazing for a guy who appears to run without bending his knees.

I'm definitely going to have to keep an eye on that. It's hilarious on paper, and I've never noticed it before.