Study analyzes high black voter turnout

African-American voters may have cast ballots at a higher rate than white voters for the first time in history, according to new research released Wednesday.

According to a study from the Pew Research Center, African-Americans saw a high voter participation rate this year: while that demographic makes up 12 percent of the “eligible electorate,” African-Americans accounted for 13 percent of the total votes, and could have outpaced the turnout rate of white voters.

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“Did the turnout rate of blacks exceed that of whites this year for the first time ever? For now, there’s circumstantial evidence but no conclusive proof,” the report noted. “And there’ll be no clear verdict until next spring, when the U.S. Census Bureau publishes findings from its biannual post-election survey on voter turnout.”

The report said that “the turnout rate among all eligible voters fell by more than 3 percentage points” but also noted that African-American voter participation remained at 2008 election levels, when “blacks ‘over-performed’ at the polls by the same ratio. In all previous presidential elections for which there are reliable data, blacks had accounted for a smaller share of votes than eligible voters.”

Pew noted that both African American and white voters “appear to have cast a slightly higher share of votes…than their share of eligible voters.” Voters from Hispanic and Asian-American demographics had a lower ratio. Electoral participation increases from the latter two groups come largely from population growth, Pew noted, while African-American voter turnout hinges more on participation rates.

“That still leaves unanswered whether the black turnout rate in 2012 surpassed the white turnout rate,” Pew continued. “If so, it would be a notable denouement to the charged debate this year between state GOP leaders who pressed for tougher laws to deter voter fraud and black and other minority group leaders who accused them of trying to suppress the minority vote.”