Monday, October 22, 2012

Georgia’s
continued sovereignty and independence and its development as a free market democracy
have been significant concerns to successive Congresses and Administrations.
The United States and Georgia signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership in
early 2009 pledging U.S. support for these objectives, and the United
States has been Georgia’s largest provider of foreign and security
assistance. Most recently, elections for the 150-member Parliament of Georgia
on October 1, 2012, have been viewed as substantially free and fair by
most observers. Several Members of Congress and the Administration have
called for a peaceful transition of political power in Georgia and have
vowed continued support for Georgia’s development and independence.

In the run-up to the October 2012 election, Georgia’s Central Electoral
Commission registered 16 parties and blocs and several thousand candidates
to run in mixed party list and single-member constituency races. A new
electoral coalition, Georgia Dream—set up by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili—posed
the main opposition to President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement,
which held the majority of legislative seats. A video tape of abuse in a prison
released by Georgia Dream late in the campaign seemed to be a factor in
the loss of voter support for the United National Movement and in the
electoral victory of Georgia Dream. According to observers from the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the election freely
reflected the will of the people, although a few procedural and other
problems were reported.

In the days after the election, Saakashvili, Ivanishvili, and other officials
from Georgia Dream and the United National Movement have met to plan an
orderly transition, including the appointment of a new cabinet.
Ivanishvili has pledged that GD will continue to support Georgia’s democratization
and anti-corruption efforts, and its European and Euro-Atlantic orientation.

The White House has described the election as “another milestone” in Georgia’s
development as a democracy, and has called for Ivanishvili and Saakashvili
to work together to ensure the country’s continued peaceful transition of
power. The Administration also stated that it looked forward to
strengthening the U.S.-Georgia partnership. Several Members of Congress
observed the election, and several Members of the Senate issued a
post-election statement commending President Saakashvili for his efforts
to transform Georgia into a prosperous democracy, and pointing to the
competitive and peaceful election as evidence of his success. At the same time, they
raised concerns about some bickering and unrest in the wake of the election,
and cautioned that the future of U.S.-Georgia relations depends on the
country’s continued commitment to democratization.

Some observers have suggested that relations between the two parties in the
legislature and between a Georgia Dream cabinet and the president may well
be contentious in coming months, as both sides maneuver before a planned
2013 presidential election. Saakashvili is term-limited and cannot run,
but the United National Movement plans to retain the presidency. Under constitutional
changes, the legislature is slated to gain greater powers vis-à-vis the
presidency, so a divided political situation could endure for some time.
In such a case, statesmanship and a commitment to compromise and good
governance are essential for Georgia’s continued democratization, these
observers stress.

Date of Report: October 10, 2012
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Monday, October 1, 2012

U.S.
policy toward the Central Asian states has aimed at facilitating their
cooperation with U.S. and NATO stabilization efforts in Afghanistan and
their efforts to combat terrorism; proliferation; and trafficking in arms,
drugs, and persons. Other U.S. objectives have included promoting free markets,
democratization, human rights, energy development, and the forging of East-West
and Central Asia-South Asia trade links. Such policies aim to help the
states become what various U.S. administrations have considered to be
responsible members of the international community rather than to
degenerate into xenophobic, extremist, and anti-Western regimes that contribute
to wider regional conflict and instability.

Soon after the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001,
all the Central Asian “front-line” states offered over-flight and other support
for coalition anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan hosted coalition troops and provided access to
airbases. In 2003, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also endorsed coalition military
action in Iraq. About two dozen Kazakhstani troops served in Iraq until
late 2008. Uzbekistan rescinded U.S. basing rights in 2005 after the
United States criticized the reported killing of civilians in the town of
Andijon. In early 2009, Kyrgyzstan ordered a U.S. base in that country to
close, allegedly because of Russian inducements and U.S. reluctance to
meet Kyrgyz requests for greatly increased lease payments. An agreement on
continued U.S. use of the Manas Transit Center was reached in June 2009.
In recent years, most of the regional states also participate in the Northern Distribution
Network for the transport of U.S. and NATO supplies into and out of
Afghanistan.

Policymakers have tailored U.S. policy in Central Asia to the varying
characteristics of these states. U.S. interests in Kazakhstan have
included securing and eliminating Soviet-era nuclear and biological
weapons materials and facilities. U.S. energy firms have invested in oil and
natural gas development in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and successive
administrations have backed diverse export routes to the West for these
resources. U.S. policy toward Kyrgyzstan has long included support for its
civil society. In Tajikistan, the United States focuses on developmental assistance
to bolster the fragile economy and address high poverty rates. U.S. relations
with Uzbekistan—the most populous state in the heart of the region—were
cool after 2005, but recently have improved.

Congress has been at the forefront in advocating increased U.S. ties with
Central Asia, and in providing backing for the region for the transit of
equipment and supplies for U.S.-led stabilization efforts in Afghanistan.
Congress has pursued these goals through hearings and legislation on
humanitarian, economic, and democratization assistance; security issues; and human
rights. During the 112th Congress, the Members may review assistance for
bolstering regional border and customs controls and other safeguards to
prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), combating
trafficking in persons and drugs, encouraging regional integration with
South Asia and Europe, advancing energy security, and countering terrorism. Support
for these goals also has been viewed as contributing to stabilization and
reconstruction operations by the United States and NATO in Afghanistan.
For several years, Congress has placed conditions on assistance to
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan because of concerns about human rights abuses
and lagging democratization (the Secretary of State may waive such conditions).
Congress will continue to consider how to balance these varied U.S.
interests in the region.

Date of Report: September 19, 2012
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Russia
made some uneven progress in democratization during the 1990s, but this limited
progress was reversed after Vladimir Putin rose to power in 1999-2000,
according to many observers. During this period, the State Duma (lower
legislative chamber) came to be dominated by government-approved parties,
gubernatorial elections were abolished, and the government consolidated
ownership or control over major media and industries, including the energy
sector. The Putin government showed a low regard for the rule of law and
human rights in suppressing insurgency in the North Caucasus, according to
critics. Dmitriy Medvedev, Putin’s long-time protégé, was elected
president in early 2008 and immediately designated Putin as prime minister. President
Medvedev continued Putin’s policies. In August 2008, the Medvedev-Putin “tandem” directed
military operations against Georgia and recognized the independence of Georgia’s separatist
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, actions condemned by most of the international community.
In late 2011, Putin announced that he would return to the presidency and that Medvedev
would become prime minister. This announcement and flawed Duma elections at the end
of the year spurred popular protests, which the government addressed by
launching some reforms (such as the return of gubernatorial elections) and
by holding pro-Putin rallies. In March 2012, Putin was (re-)elected
president by a wide margin. The day after his inauguration on May 7, the
legislature confirmed Medvedev as prime minister. Since then, the Putin
administration appears to be tightening restrictions on freedom of
assembly and other human rights.

Russia’s economy began to recover from the Soviet collapse in 1999, led mainly
by oil and gas exports, but the decline in oil and gas prices and other
aspects of the global economic downturn beginning in 2008 contributed to
an 8% drop in gross domestic product in 2009. Since then, rising world oil
prices have bolstered the economy. Russian economic growth continues to be
dependent on oil and gas exports. The economy also is plagued by an
unreformed healthcare system and unhealthy lifestyles; low domestic and
foreign investment; and high rates of crime, corruption, capital flight,
and unemployment.

Russia’s armed forces now number less than one million, down from 4.3 million
Soviet troops in 1986. Troop readiness, training, morale, and discipline
have suffered, and much of the arms industry has become antiquated. Russia’s
economic growth during most of the 2000s allowed it to increase defense
spending to begin to address these problems. Stepped-up efforts have been launched
to restructure the armed forces to improve their quality. Opposition among some
in the armed forces, mismanagement, and corruption have seemingly slowed
this restructuring.

After the Soviet Union’s collapse, the United States sought a cooperative relationship
with Moscow and supplied almost $19 billion in aid for Russia from FY1992
through FY2010 to encourage democracy and market reforms and in particular
to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In the
past, U.S.-Russia tensions on issues such as NATO enlargement and proposed
U.S. missile defenses in Eastern Europe were accompanied by some cooperation
between the two countries on anti-terrorism and non-proliferation. Russia’s
2008 conflict with Georgia, however, threatened such cooperation. The
Obama Administration has worked to “re-set” relations with Russia. The
Administration has hailed the signing of a new Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty in April 2010, the approval of new sanctions against Iran by Russia
and other members of the U.N. Security Council in June 2010, the accession of
Russia to the World Trade Organization on August 22, 2012, and the
cooperation of Russia in Afghanistan as signifying the “re-set” of
bilateral relations. Congress is considering legislation(H.R. 6156 and S.
3406) to grant Russia Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status.

Date of Report: September 19, 2012
Number of Pages: 82Order Number: RL33407Price: $29.95

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