Fallout: What Shea Weber's arbitration award means

By Kevin Allen, USA TODAY

Defenseman Shea Weber was awarded a record-setting $7.5 million salary by an arbitrator. USA TODAY hockey writer Kevin Allen answers questions about the impact of that award on the Nashville Predators, the player and other defensemen.

By Rich Lam, Getty Images

In addition to wanting to lock up Shea Weber, right, long term, the Predators have to re-sign goalie Pekka Rinne, left, and Ryan Suter before next summer.

In addition to wanting to lock up Shea Weber, right, long term, the Predators have to re-sign goalie Pekka Rinne, left, and Ryan Suter before next summer.

Did the arbitration process and the large award fracture the relationship between Weber and the Predators?

No. General manager David Poile called and congratulated Weber on his award, and essentially said Weber deserved that salary. The fact that Weber was on a media conference call with Poile suggests that he still respects the organization and Poile.

Is there is still a chance that Weber could re-sign long-term with Nashville?

Yes, although it's difficult to know what the chances are. Weber seems sincere about wanting to stay in Nashville. It won't be all about the money. The best guess is he wants assurances that the team will continue to add pieces necessary to win a Stanley Cup. The team needs offensive help, and he is within his right as a superstar to ask owners whether they will lay out the money necessary to acquire that. The Predators haven't done much this summer.

It won't be an easy decision. Undoubtedly, Weber knows that if he could get to unrestricted free agency, he might have more suitors than Brad Richards had this summer. Poile has done a good job of transforming this team into a Stanley Cup contender on a budget, but will they be able to re-sign defenseman Ryan Suter when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer? If they give Weber a deal worth more than $7 million a season, they will have to put Suter in that neighborhood. Goalie Pekka Rinne also will be unrestricted next summer. To keep those three core players, it might cost the Predators 40% of their payroll.

Weber will be a restricted free agent against next summer because he doesn't turn 27 until after June 30 and he won't have seven accrued seasons because he played fewer than 40 games as a rookie. Nashville, though, has no arbitration rights on Weber next summer, and some team could give him a front-loaded offer sheet that the low-payroll Predators would have difficulty matching.

Does this $7.5 million help others players?

A: Yes, other premium defensemen can use this award as a comparable in future arbitration cases. If Drew Doughty, currently negotiating a long-term deal with the Los Angeles Kings, files for arbitration down the road, that figure is out there for his agent to use.

How much the dollar award hurt the Predators?

In the short term, not as much as you think. Nashville submitted a $4.75 million figure and Weber sought $8.5 million, but arbitrators usually split the difference, so the Predators probably anticipated an award in the $6.5 million range. Hence, Weber's contract is probably $1 million than they expected. And we can assume they were willing to pay him more than $6 million on a long-term deal. In the long term, the dollar amount probably hurts Nashville because you can argue that $7.5 million will be his starting point.

Does the award mean the Predators can't afford to sign anyone else?

Not at all. The Predators' payroll is expected to be below the salary cap midpoint of $54.3 million. Their plan was to wait until the smoke cleared from the major free-agent signings and try to find a bargain forward to help their offense. They still intend to do that. They probably have at least $4 million to spend.

If the Predators conclude that they can't re-sign Weber, what's next?

A trade. They can't afford to lose Weber for nothing to unrestricted free agency in 2013 or risk the possibility of an offer sheet. If a trade were to happen, the logical time would be at next year's draft. The Predators would receive a whopping return for Weber, but trading him is certainly not their desire.

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