L. Spiro out of curiosity what is the news like in Japan about the North Korean threat?

I don’t know. The only time I even catch a glimpse of TV is at lunch, and what they are watching is definitely not news.

In a poll in 2012 it was found that all age groups of South Koreans felt war was more likely than not.

Most of the criticism I am getting is related to the idea that he has no choice but to keep escalating things in an effort to prove his worthiness to his people at such a young age.Ironically, yesterday, after I started this topic, a new news release was released.Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?It basically says exactly what I said about him trying to prove his worth to his country.

"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN."I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."

"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.

I don’t really see how anyone can have faith that war will not happen.

Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored…

Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes."But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"

I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.

But the citizens know virtually nothing of the outside world. I know. I dated a North Korean. That North Korean at least had knowledge of the outside world from living in Japan, but was still a bit lost when presenting me photos of an Apple II and proclaiming, “See? We do have technology.”

The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.

Firstly, it is already wrong to suggest that their citizens don’t want war for fear of being wiped out, because they really don’t know they would be wiped out.But not only that, even if they did know that and had a good understanding of the outside world, they would want war anyway. They don’t like Kim Fat, they are starving, they are impoverished, etc. War would be the best possible thing for them. Kim Fat is killed off, they are set free, they suddenly have Internet and food (the 2 essentials for life, plus maybe water and air), etc.

It is really simple. Those who don’t know any better want war out of hatred for America. Those who do want war as a means of being set free.So it doesn’t hold up to say the citizens wouldn’t back him in a war.

Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.

Yes, it makes sense to a normal person that he should avoid war at all costs to avoid being crushed.But how is that related to Kim Fat? I don’t see the connection.

Hmm, a US media company pushing the idea that a poorly understood (by US citizens, at least) foreign power not only really wants to hurt the US, but is actively working to do so, and that war is inevitable. They wouldn't be dishonest about something like that, would they? I mean, it's not like we have any historical analogues of news media warmongering based on thin information, ultimately incorrect, that wasn't critically reviewed before being passed on as hard facts. Certainly nothing that recently had its 10 year anniversary...

Besides, that CNN article is about as fluffy as they get. Take this, for example:

"I don't recall he ever went this far in terms of the pace and scope of the rhetoric. Threatening to launch nukes directly against the United States and South Korea confirms what a lot of people have been saying, which is we are dealing with someone new," the official added.

followed immediately by:

"Unfortunately, he is following the example of his father and grandfather pretty closely," the official said. "It's hard to be optimistic."

So he's a meaningful departure from his father and grandfather, except when he's following their example pretty closely.

"What better than to conduct a nuclear test, and then use the resulting slap on the wrist from the international community as an excuse to ready the troops, tear up the non-aggression pact with Seoul and release incendiary propaganda about, for example, Barack Obama perishing in a nuclear onslaught?"

That is the exact pattern followed by NK for the last several decades. Kim Jong Il conducted nuclear tests too-- that's where their current nuclear capabilities came from.

I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.

That's only a factor if the people of North Korea have any say in any aspect of government or national affairs. They don't. Even if they were desperate to avoid war, if that's what the ruling few want, that's what would happen. And not to nitpick, but if they're so delusional that they can't be expected to think rationally, why are you expecting that of them in terms of their support for Kim Il Sung? And never forget that it's not just the leader who has access to outside information, it's also the wealthiest and most powerful people in NK. People like the military leaders.

The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.

And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.

If so, if the populace is so malleable to propoganda, so unquestioning of the government, what is the need of an actual war?

Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.

I agree that he seems erratic. But he still hasn't broken much with the pattern of his predecessors. They did the whole bluster-bribe-back down dance, it's true, but even under Kim Jong Il they blatantly defied the will of the US and the international community doing things like... nuclear tests and missile tests. They didn't just back down after a bribe, they actively developed the technologies they used to extract those bribes.

I'm not saying that war is impossible, just that the evidence is light that it's much more likely than in the past, let alone a certainty. The dynamics you're describing are mostly the same ones that have existed for 60 years and have not resulted in war yet. The ones that are new are based on completely accepting that your assertions about the people of NK and the mind of Kim Il Sung are correct, even though NK is notoriously opaque and intelligence of internal conditions is very poor.

You are starting with the conclusion that there must be war, and then ginning up whatever arguments support that conclusion, internal consistency be damned. And to top it all off, I get the impression that you think that war is inevitable because you can observe yourself believing that war is inevitable. And maybe you're right, I can't conclusively demonstrate that you're wrong. But I am still not impressed with the arguments you are presenting, CNN link notwithstanding.

But all this is a moot point - we're not talking about world policing here - N. Korea has made concrete threats against the US. Even if the US doesn't act like a world police, they would have to seriously consider those threats, as would any other nation. Though I seriously doubt there will be a war, on the off chance that there is, it's probably going to be really short and only hurt people in N. Korea.

To be fair, we're talking about North Korea making counter threats, after being threatened with anhilliation by the south and the US... But whatever, our threats don't count.

But all this is a moot point - we're not talking about world policing here - N. Korea has made concrete threats against the US. Even if the US doesn't act like a world police, they would have to seriously consider those threats, as would any other nation. Though I seriously doubt there will be a war, on the off chance that there is, it's probably going to be really short and only hurt people in N. Korea.

To be fair, we're talking about North Korea making counter threats, after being threatened with anhilliation by the south and the US... But whatever, our threats don't count.

The south threatened their survival while the US flew B-52 bombers from Guam to Korea and back in a nuclear bombing drill!

What do you expect? If (we go back a few decades where this is possible, and) Russia did such a thing to the US, the US would certainly make similar threats back towards Russia.

From the article:The threat from the North’s Korean People’s Army Supreme Command came only hours after President Park Geun-hye of South Korea warned that the North Korean leadership could ensure its survival only when...

“They should be mindful that everything will be reduced to ashes and flames the moment the first attack [from the south] is unleashed,” the North Korean command said...

So, "you will not survive unless you bend to our will", followed by "if you attack us then everything will burn".

That's not what we report in our headlines though, is it? We just report that the north has made threats, and do our best to imply there's no reason for them.

We certainly don't mention that we were threatening them to abandon their nuclear programme, while flying nuclear bombers overhead!

Note that the article didn't include an earlier paragraph from the north, reinforcing that the north was threatening a counter attack, not initial aggression:

We will demonstrate with the practical military action the firm will of the army and people of the DPRK to take counteraction to defend the sovereignty and dignity of the supreme leadership of the country.

So using this press release as evidence that the North is going to start a war is a bit silly. They were threatened with nuclear destruction, and they issued counter-threats.

Now, go question why our press is making it look like the reverse happened... Maybe the US wants there to be a war?

[edit] To be fair again, "bend to our will" included "stop provoking us" as well as "lay down your arms". So both sides are using earlier provocations by the other in order to justify their current provocations.

This all the fault of Homefront in proving to NK that America was in reality a soft target and that the south koreans would be easily absorbed into their culture. Kaos should have stuck with China instead and damn the trade treaties.

The U.S. military has strongly suggested that they have the means to defend against a nuclear attack from NK.

As for what KJU is thinking? Well, he's insane. It's hard to say. Given the environment he's grown up in and his obvious lack of political savvy he seems to just be doing random crap to see what happens. NK has kind of turned into the fulcrum point that everyone has a finger on. It's not really about what KJU is thinking, but who he's listening to at the moment. It's really sticky because obviously someone should just go in there and clean house before people get hurt, but everyone else would get upset so nobody can really do anything.

I hear reports all the time that the people of NK are totally sold out communists and really hyped up to conquer the world. I have a hard time believing that a whole nation could be that delusional, but stranger things have happened.

Of course there's always the possibility that KJU is just crazy like a fox and NK is actually a giant theme park surrounded by jungle and funded by some genetically engineered tree that fruits gold nuggets. It would certainly explain why Dennis Rodman was so impressed.

void hurrrrrrrr() {__asm sub [ebp+4],5;}

There are ten kinds of people in this world: those who understand binary and those who don't.

Basically, war can’t be avoided. Backing down is obviously not possible.
He’s already stated he will make a pre-emptive strike, and frankly he has no choice. So war will happen.

There won't be a war because nobody, besides North Korea, wants one. I surely don't want one.

Nobody wants the economy to fall and gas prices to rise, and then the government starts using it
as an excuse to pass unconstitional laws to spy on their own citizens. Oh wait, that's already happening.

Aren't you glad you live in Japan? The only things you need to worry about is earthquakes, tsunamis,
and radioactive water.

Of course there's always the possibility that KJU is just crazy like a fox and NK is actually a giant theme park surrounded by jungle and funded by some genetically engineered tree that fruits gold nuggets. It would certainly explain why Dennis Rodman was so impressed.

Dennis Rodman visiting North Korea is the start of the new Austin Powers movie.
He's a double-agent spy who has a taste for 7-course meals and chubby Korean women.

The south threatened their survival while the US flew B-52 bombers from Guam to Korea and back in a nuclear bombing drill!

What do you expect? If (we go back a few decades where this is possible, and) Russia did such a thing to the US, the US would certainly make similar threats back towards Russia.

From the article:The threat from the North’s Korean People’s Army Supreme Command came only hours after President Park Geun-hye of South Korea warned that the North Korean leadership could ensure its survival only when...

“They should be mindful that everything will be reduced to ashes and flames the moment the first attack [from the south] is unleashed,” the North Korean command said...

So, "you will not survive unless you bend to our will", followed by "if you attack us then everything will burn".

That's not what we report in our headlines though, is it? We just report that the north has made threats, and do our best to imply there's no reason for them.

We certainly don't mention that we were threatening them to abandon their nuclear programme, while flying nuclear bombers overhead!

Note that the article didn't include an earlier paragraph from the north, reinforcing that the north was threatening a counter attack, not initial aggression:

We will demonstrate with the practical military action the firm will of the army and people of the DPRK to take counteraction to defend the sovereignty and dignity of the supreme leadership of the country.

So using this press release as evidence that the North is going to start a war is a bit silly. They were threatened with nuclear destruction, and they issued counter-threats.

Now, go question why our press is making it look like the reverse happened... Maybe the US wants there to be a war?

[edit] To be fair again, "bend to our will" included "stop provoking us" as well as "lay down your arms". So both sides are using earlier provocations by the other in order to justify their current provocations.

Its funny really, its pretty much the same way with the massacres during the korea war (SK murdered 100-200.000 civilians("communist sympathizers", including children) with the US silent approval during the war), even though NK was far worse it is quite hypocritical to pretend that the west are the good guys. (Sure, we're not as bad as NK, but we're not as good as our governments try to tell us we are)

I don't suffer from insanity, I'm enjoying every minute of it.The voices in my head may not be real, but they have some good ideas!

it is quite hypocritical to pretend that the west are the good guys. (Sure, we're not as bad as NK, but we're not as good as our governments try to tell us we are)

Indeed, that's what always amuses me about threads like this; terms like 'insane', 'dillusional' and propergander are thrown around as if the view point we are presented with is clearly pure, sane and Right in some absolute sense.

I'm not saying that we are as bad as places like NK but, as Million Dead once sang, A little more suspicion in our fairy tales please.

L. Spiro out of curiosity what is the news like in Japan about the North Korean threat?

I don’t know. The only time I even catch a glimpse of TV is at lunch, and what they are watching is definitely not news.

In a poll in 2012 it was found that all age groups of South Koreans felt war was more likely than not.

Most of the criticism I am getting is related to the idea that he has no choice but to keep escalating things in an effort to prove his worthiness to his people at such a young age.
Ironically, yesterday, after I started this topic, a new news release was released.Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?
It basically says exactly what I said about him trying to prove his worth to his country.

>"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN.
"I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."

"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.

I don’t really see how anyone can have faith that war will not happen.

Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored…

Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes.
"But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"

I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.

But the citizens know virtually nothing of the outside world. I know. I dated a North Korean. That North Korean at least had knowledge of the outside world from living in Japan, but was still a bit lost when presenting me photos of an Apple II and proclaiming, “See? We do have technology.”

The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.
And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.

Firstly, it is already wrong to suggest that their citizens don’t want war for fear of being wiped out, because they really don’t know they would be wiped out.
But not only that, even if they did know that and had a good understanding of the outside world, they would want war anyway. They don’t like Kim Fat, they are starving, they are impoverished, etc. War would be the best possible thing for them. Kim Fat is killed off, they are set free, they suddenly have Internet and food (the 2 essentials for life, plus maybe water and air), etc.

It is really simple. Those who don’t know any better want war out of hatred for America. Those who do want war as a means of being set free.
So it doesn’t hold up to say the citizens wouldn’t back him in a war.

Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:
#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.
#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.

Yes, it makes sense to a normal person that he should avoid war at all costs to avoid being crushed.
But how is that related to Kim Fat? I don’t see the connection.

L. Spiro

L. Spiro out of curiosity what is the news like in Japan about the North Korean threat?

I don’t know. The only time I even catch a glimpse of TV is at lunch, and what they are watching is definitely not news.

In a poll in 2012 it was found that all age groups of South Koreans felt war was more likely than not.

Most of the criticism I am getting is related to the idea that he has no choice but to keep escalating things in an effort to prove his worthiness to his people at such a young age.
Ironically, yesterday, after I started this topic, a new news release was released.Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?
It basically says exactly what I said about him trying to prove his worth to his country.

>"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN.
"I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."

"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.

I don’t really see how anyone can have faith that war will not happen.

Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored…

Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes.
"But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"

I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.

But the citizens know virtually nothing of the outside world. I know. I dated a North Korean. That North Korean at least had knowledge of the outside world from living in Japan, but was still a bit lost when presenting me photos of an Apple II and proclaiming, “See? We do have technology.”

The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.
And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.

Firstly, it is already wrong to suggest that their citizens don’t want war for fear of being wiped out, because they really don’t know they would be wiped out.
But not only that, even if they did know that and had a good understanding of the outside world, they would want war anyway. They don’t like Kim Fat, they are starving, they are impoverished, etc. War would be the best possible thing for them. Kim Fat is killed off, they are set free, they suddenly have Internet and food (the 2 essentials for life, plus maybe water and air), etc.

It is really simple. Those who don’t know any better want war out of hatred for America. Those who do want war as a means of being set free.
So it doesn’t hold up to say the citizens wouldn’t back him in a war.

Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:
#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.
#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.

Yes, it makes sense to a normal person that he should avoid war at all costs to avoid being crushed.
But how is that related to Kim Fat? I don’t see the connection.

L. Spiro

I believe you are stating that North Korea is in a situation similar to that of Argentina before the Falklands War. The military junta launched a war in order to divert the attention of the people from the unpopular government to something that Argentines believed was rightfully theirs, the Falklands Islands. The junta had believed that they would be able to occupy the islands and that the UK would do nothing but go to the negotiations table. However, what ended up happening was that Margaret Thatcher found a way to get reelected by fighting for the islands. There are some key differences here.

The first and most obvious difference here is that there really isn't anything that North Korea can occupy without any retaliation from somebody. Moreover, Argentina could have won the Falklands War, had they planned on holding the islands. It would have been long and tough, but it was not beyond the realm of possibility. Here, North Korea has no hope of winning anything, other than a free one way ticket to annihilation (autographed by SK president, Japanese PM, and Barack Obama). I really doubt that Un is stupid enough to believe that he can win, but if he has deluded himself enough, then he may try something. The other difference is that we don't really know if his people are about to overthrow him. It is possible, but we cannot say that with certainty. Un may actually be desperate, or he's just rattling around so that he can get attention, like any other neglected child.

In any case, historically when dictators get desperate/delusional, they try random things. If Un really is desperate enough, or deluded enough, he may try to attack South Korea, as this is where he can maximize his damage and also begin his "world conquest". The thing is, in his delusion/desperation/stupidity, he probably will end up losing pretty damn quickly. I don't see this being a six hour war, it probably will be drawn out over a week or two. Un will try to go nuclear, but no one will retaliate with nukes, mainly because its going to probably end up hurting more than it will help.

The likelihood of war is all dependent on Un. We don't have any historical precedents for Un. We cannot make any predictions so I would say it's a toss up.

I don't think Kim Jong Un is delusional - he wasn't entirely raised in isolation and told he was a god, as far as we know, and we do know that he was educated in western colleges. The western colleges and his college peers certainly didn't worship him. (Edit: Whoops, European colleges. Switzerland, to be precise. Thought it was in London)

He might be underestimating how much of a response he'd get from pretending to almost go to war, but my guess is that this is a "We're going to go to war!" -> Bill Clinton heroically rides in as an ambassador to save the day -> North Korea agrees to slow down nuclear development, and scale back military buildup (which the North Korean civilians never hear about), United States sends aid and reduces trade embargoes (which North Korea tells its civilians are plunder or tribute or gifts because the world recognizes Kim Jong Un's greatness), and Kim Jong Un is made out to be a hero of peace and a amazing diplomat and someone the US is scared to fight in North Korea's media.

The headline with an earlier version of this article overstated the extent of North Korea’s actions. North and South Korea continue to maintain hot lines between their civil aviation authorities; the North did not shut down the last hot line between the two.

Just in case no one bothers to read the article or scroll to the bottom. Not sure if Bubsy was just supplying information or giving an argument for expecting war.

No surprise there with the way Kim Fat’s threats have been escalating.

Now the question is who else takes it seriously? The South does not.

So will it become a physical war? What do you think?

My view: This all started because Kim Fat is trying to garner respect from within his own country but also in the eyes of the world. He escalates because no one takes him seriously outside of North Korea.

Right now the world is still just laughing. Do you think he will just quietly back down? Obviously not.

But he can’t just keep things where they are. The whole world has put North Korea on /ignore and he isn’t getting anywhere even now when the threats are at the highest they have ever been.

When he sees that even declaring war won’t get him his way and that the world is still just laughing, he will start a physical war, left with no other options for escalation.

What wikipedia article is backed up from a citation from the BBC, who've quoted KNCA as saying:

The long-standing situation of the Korean peninsula being neither at peace nor at war is finally over.

What the KNCA actually said though was:

The Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military drills staged by the U.S. and the south Korean puppet forces were the actual nuclear war rehearsals that activated nuclear strike means including B-52 capable of carrying nuclear warheads and nuclear-armed submarine.
This is a brazen-faced violation and encroachment on AA and all the north-south agreements and an unpardonable provocation and infringement on the DPRK's sovereignty and supreme interests.
The unprecedentedly acute and serious state of political and military emergency prevailing on the Korean Peninsula urged the DPRK to terminate at an early date the geopolitical disaster, neither a war nor peace, which has lasted century after century on this land, and take a bold decision to guarantee the national sovereignty and regional stability.

They then go on to explain that the armistice agreement -- which is the agreement between the North and the US that there will be no hostilities -- has been repeatedly violated by the US, and that they're taking this nuclear bombing rehearsal as a hostile act, and therefore they must also start to disregard the agreement for defensive reasons. Again, they only talk about the possibility of them carrying out counter attacks to defend themselves.
The only offensive threat that they make is saying that they of course reserve the infamous American idea of a defensive pre-emptive precision strike... and by American logic, such an act is of course valid

There's a bunch of other quotes in the BBC story that I can't find an original source for at all, and they sure as hell don't provide references like Wikipedia does

So from the looks of what the North said, this is just a continuation of the situation that you linked at the beginning of this thread.
The US rehearsed the nuclear bombing of the North, while the South threatened the survival of the North. In response, the North is making all sorts of counter threats and promising to defend themselves...
The idea that they're being the aggressor here is totally down to how you spin the story.