Longer-term deflation probabilities remain low

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability was 12 percent on August 3, up slightly from 11 percent a week earlier. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation remained at 0 percent.