The Latest

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

It's time for my fifth annual look back at the year's top 10 moments in
TV ratings! As
always, the criteria are pretty subjective, but I go for a blend of 1)
relatively isolated incidents that are impressive for their sheer
enormity/cultural impact and 2)
moments that exemplify much larger trends in TV this year. The headlines
link back to writings on these moments at the time they happened.
Enjoy, please let me know about my most egregious rankings/omissions,
and check out the first post from yesterday. Happy New Year!

Monday, December 29, 2014

It's time for my fifth annual look back at the year's top 10 moments in
TV ratings! As
always, the criteria are pretty subjective, but I go for a blend of 1)
relatively isolated incidents that are impressive for their sheer
enormity/cultural impact and 2)
moments that exemplify much larger trends in TV this year. The headlines
link back to writings on these moments at the time they happened.
Enjoy, please let me know about my most egregious rankings/omissions,
and check out the now live top five. Happy New Year!

Friday, December 26, 2014

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and
timeslots using numbers adjusted for historical decline. These
update posts, looking back on the newly added 2001-02 and 2002-03
seasons, will link back to the now updated full posts for each day,
and the update posts have exclusive year-to-year trends and ranks among
the 13 iterations of each hour.Many more disclaimers can be seen on the
individual pages, but the most basic one is that the
listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason
replacements may have done much better. (I try to mention those
midseason replacements that did better.) Please also note that the
2003-04 thru 2005-06 numbers still contain the "old" A18-49+ scores from
before I filled in the missing data from those seasons. So those
numbers will change (slightly) when the 2014-15 numbers are entered this
summer.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and
timeslots using numbers adjusted for historical decline. These
update posts, looking back on the newly added 2001-02 and 2002-03
seasons, will link back to the now updated full posts for each day,
and the update posts have exclusive year-to-year trends and ranks among
the 13 iterations of each hour.Many more disclaimers can be seen on the
individual pages, but the most basic one is that the
listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason
replacements may have done much better. (I try to mention those
midseason replacements that did better.) Please also note that the
2003-04 thru 2005-06 numbers still contain the "old" A18-49+ scores from
before I filled in the missing data from those seasons. So those
numbers will change (slightly) when the 2014-15 numbers are entered this
summer.

Friday, December 19, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: With Thursday Night Football hitting a runaway season low (just a 1.6 on NFL Network) in two small markets, adjustments were minimal. Only Elementary (1.3) and the 8:00 Bones repeat adjusted down. That meant Mom (2.3) finished at a noticeable 0.3 points higher than its last episode after a repeat two weeks ago.

Pending preemptions, CBS' Mom (2.3) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) took hits with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (2.3), while The McCarthys (1.6) and Elementary (1.4) were even. These numbers may adjust down a bit due to a Jacksonville football preemption.

These numbers came against virtually no competition on the other networks. NBC saw The Biggest Loser (0.9) get into truly disastrous territory, and it led into an unwatched new awards show called the People Magazine Awards (0.8). But somehow that combo was still enough for second place against ABC with The Taste (0.8) and Fox with Bones repeats (0.8 pending a preemption). Compared to these stinkers, the CW looked like a winner with the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball special (0.6), up a tenth year-to-year.

Programming note: I won't be doing updates based on preliminary ratings for the next two weeks, but I'll have a few roundup posts as the finals trickle in. Happy holidays!

Thursday, December 18, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: The Survivor reunion dropped to 1.8 in finals, putting it on the narrow year-to-year downside.

The two-hour finale of Survivor (2.4) was the dominant option on a night full of unscripted programming. Though it didn't get any week-to-week bounce, it was just two tenths below the previous fall finale, and the 10/9c reunion show was even with last year's 1.9.

NBC brought back The Sing-Off (1.3) with modest results as just a one-time special this year; it tied both its Michael Buble special lead-in (1.3) as well as Fox's two-hour finale of Hell's Kitchen (1.3).

The CW's The 100 (0.5) was Wednesday's only scripted original, dropping a tenth with a reduced lead-in. Led by Modern Family (1.7), ABC averaged a 1.3 with three hours of comedy repeats, tying the NBC and Fox averages. The three-episode Black-ish marathon hit 1.3/1.1/1.0.

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and
timeslots using numbers adjusted for historical decline. These
update posts, looking back on the newly added 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons, will link back to the now updated full posts for each day,
and the update posts have exclusive year-to-year trends and ranks among the 13 iterations of each hour.Many more disclaimers can be seen on the
individual pages, but the most basic one is that the
listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason
replacements may have done much better. (I try to mention those
midseason replacements that did better.) Please also note that the 2003-04 thru 2005-06 numbers still contain the "old" A18-49+ scores from before I filled in the missing data from those seasons. So those numbers will change (slightly) when the 2014-15 numbers are entered this summer.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.4) avoided its season low with a finals uptick, while The Voice (3.3) was also up, taking its y2y decline to just 18%.

NBC's two-hour finale of The Voice (3.2) was the series' best rating since early November, but it was down 20% vs. last year's fall finale. Considering how poorly the series fared in the closing weeks of the season, going -15%/-20% on the last two nights isn't really that terrible/unexpected. But this season seems to have confirmed the notion that the series is on the downturn.

CBS tried throwing originals at NBC's finale, and it went about as badly as the last time the shows had major NBC competition (when The Voice was two hours on November 11). NCIS (2.3) and Person of Interest (1.3) each tied their season lows from that night, and they sandwiched a new one for NCIS: New Orleans (1.9).

In the 8:00 hour, ABC's A Charlie Brown Christmas (1.7) tied the finale of MasterChef Junior (1.7) for second. NBC brought up the rear, not getting much out of a new Elf special (1.3).

FINALS UPDATE:Bob's Burgers (1.3) was up 0.1. Cowboys-fueled Sunday Night Football ended up at an 8.6 rating, a massive number for this time of year; it was the biggest SNF since late September (also a Cowboys game). TNT's new drama The Librarians (0.8) took a major week two decline.

CBS brought back Undercover Boss for a three-week Sunday run before it moves to Friday to fill space between The Amazing Race seasons. And it got off to a good start (1.7), coming in just below the high point of last season's Friday run (and better than the usual Madam Secretary demo without overrun help). This pulled CBS into a virtual tie with ABC and a national overrun-infused Fox in the 8/7c hour. And it also helped The Mentalist (1.3) bounce back a bit from last week's bad drop. It could well get even better for the Boss when it gets national overrun help the next two weeks.

On ABC, Once Upon a Time (1.7) has positively limped to the finish after such a huge early fall, declining by another three tenths on fall finale night. It's definitely going to be interesting to see what this show can piece together in the spring with the Frozen storyline done. To be fair, it can lay much of the blame on this night at the feet of a completely invisible Disney special (0.5) at 7/6c. And to round off a rotten ABC night, the two-hour Barbara Walters' 10 Most Fascinating People special (1.4) at 9/8c was down massively year-to-year (vs. a 2.2 on a Wednesday last year).

Despite having the national overrun, Fox went with repeats of The Simpsons (2.0) and Family Guy (1.4). They led into originals of Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) at 8:30 and Bob's Burgers (1.2) at 9:30, which basically managed non-overrun numbers with the lessened lead-ins.

On the first Saturday without college football, two networks still broke a 1.0 average (which is really good for Saturday filler). CBS' two hours of strong holiday specials inched past Fox's UFC. Both lineups were down about a tenth from the same lineups on this night last year.

NBC's Peter Pan Live! remained close to the half-of-Sound of Music pace, with the Saturday encore doing a 0.3 (vs. SoML! pulling a 0.7 on this night last year).

Most Friday series aired their final originals of 2014, but the results were not memorable. ABC had a particularly weak outing with Last Man Standing (1.1) and Cristela (0.8) each declining for the third straight episode and Shark Tank (1.5) blowing away its previous season low. And CBS' trio of The Amazing Race (1.1), Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Blue Bloods (1.2) were all below average. Only NBC did reasonably well with Dateline (1.3), Grimm (1.3) and Constantine (1.0) all a bit above average. Fox had two hours of MasterChef Junior repeats (0.6) and the CW replayed the two-hour premiere of TNT's new show The Librarians (0.4).

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: Football took a tenth away from every ABC/NBC program, leaving The Voice (2.8) down 15% year-to-year and State of Affairs at a new low 1.5. Also, Jane the Virgin failed to hold onto the preliminary 0.6, but was still even week-to-week with a worse lead-in.

The CW went with a one-week preview of Hart of Dixie (0.4), which moves to Friday in January, at the same number it posted for almost every Monday airing last season. It was upstaged by a promising fall finale uptick for Jane the Virgin, which registered its first 0.6 since the series premiere (provided it holds in finals).

NBC had the fall finale of The Voice (2.9) and another 1.6 for State of Affairs, but they may drop a bit in finals due to a Monday Night Football preemption. The Voice should be up at least a bit week-to-week, but it'll be well below last year's 3.3 fall finale.

ABC's The Great Christmas Light Fight (1.5) is also sweating a preemption, but it seems to have fared better against The Voice's finale than it did last year (1.0).

Fox had the newly renamed American Country Countdown Awards (0.9), down a third from last year's American Country Awards (1.4 on 12/10/13).

CBS was all original again and saw a 0.1 uptick for 2 Broke Girls (2.1) and 0.1 drops for Mike and Molly (1.8) and Scorpion (2.0).

Monday, December 15, 2014

The
A18-49+ yearly recaps combine one single season's updates to each of
the A18-49+ theme posts (linked for each section below). On the theme posts: I've moved the tables with every single year (the "put 'em all together" sections) to the top of each post and put the 2001-02 and 2002-03 numbers (along with the updated 2003-04 thru 2005-06) in each of those tables. Except for New Shows (which was a simple copy&paste) I have not updated everything below those initial tables: that is, the text recaps and tables broken apart into sections. I might get into that at the end of the month, but more likely the full text updates won't come until I'm adding the 2014-15 stuff this summer.

Defining Shows/Overall Thoughts:

The 2001-02 season wasn't the last one in which NBC rode Friends and ER to the top of the ratings charts. But it was probably the last time that the network's grip on primetime seemed unbreakable. As a network, NBC's originals averaged a whooping 128 in A18-49+, a number about on par with the very biggest years of Fox's prime in the late aughts. I would argue this number was even more impressive than anything Fox did, since NBC didn't devote as much time to one individual giga-hit and also had to program the 10:00 hour.

Friday, December 12, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: The finals were not too harsh to CBSadjustment-wise, leaving the network with some pretty favorable numbers in spite of a new season low for The Big Bang Theory (3.9). Mom (2.6) tied its season/series high, Two and a Half Men (2.3) and The McCarthys (1.6) both zoomed up to near their premiere numbers and Elementary (1.4) hit a new season high. The CW's night brightened further as The Vampire Diaries upticked to 0.9, putting both its dramas at a tie for their season highs. But Bones got no finals help, so the new season low 1.2 sticks.

As usual, any observations about Thursday's top-ranked lineup on CBS (including the return of The Big Bang Theory in originals) will have to wait for finals due to preemptions in both of the Thursday Night Football markets.

Though there's not much Thursday competition these days, not many shows stepped up:

NBC's regular series in the first two hours were back for the first time in three weeks; The Biggest Loser (1.1) tied its season low at 8/7c, though Bad Judge (1.1) hopped up in its first episode without Scandal competition. (Hey, maybe the Shonda audience would've been interested in a Kate Walsh comedy after all!)

ABC's The Taste (0.8) inched down in week two.

Bones had another preliminary new low 1.2 (though the last one ended up adjusting up), while the Gracepoint finale (0.9) was even with last week but slightly above most of the middle of the run.

The CW perhaps fared best of all, as the fall finales of The Vampire Diaries (0.8) and Reign (0.5) were each up a tenth.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

FINALS UPDATE:Chicago PD (1.5), hour two of Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and Arrow (1.1) all adjusted up. That meant PD actually built on its SVU lead-in for the first time this season.

ABC's comedies bounced back from disastrous results last week. The Middle (2.2) had the biggest win, all the way back into a tie with its season high from two episodes ago and up year-to-year. The Goldbergs (2.2) also did fine, hitting season-average levels (though failing to build on The Middle for the first time), while Modern Family (3.1) and Black-ish (2.3) remained clearly below average (even if up multiple tenths from last week). At least in the prelims, Nashville (1.5) actually won the tightly-packed 10/9c hour outright.

NBC was the big loser of this Wednesday, bringing its three-hour procedural lineup back for a one-week original stint in the middle of two lengthy hiatuses. Bookends The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) and Chicago PD (1.4) each tied their season lows, but those didn't look as bad by comparison as Law and Order: SVU (1.4) dipped well below its previous season low.

On CBS, it was a good night for Survivor (2.4) but not so much for low-tying Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.4). Fox had two hours of Hell's Kitchen (1.2), while the CW's Arrow (1.0) came back to earth after last week's Flash crossover (but was still a tenth ahead of the episode before the crossover). The 100 preliminarily held at 0.6 despite the reduced lead-in.

The A18-49+ yearly recaps combine one single season's updates to each of the A18-49+ theme posts (linked for each section below). The updates to the theme posts will come after the 2001-02 recap is posted.

Defining Shows/Overall Thoughts:

We've already looked at a couple seasons that were notable as explosions for one particular category of programming. 2004-05 saw an incredible class of new dramas, while 2011-12 marked the explosion of several new and returning comedies. At least within the A18-49+ era, 2002-03 is the closest thing to a Year of Reality, welcoming in a new generation of unscripted hits that are still major players on the primetime landscape well over a decade later.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show adjusted up to 3.4, putting it even year-to-year. It also edged out the series finale of FX's Sons of Anarchy (3.3) for top series of the night. Sons joined recent finales like Breaking Bad and How I Met Your Mother in ending on a new series high, just barely beating the 3.2 from this season's premiere.Elsewhere, The Voice (2.3) adjusted up to avoid a new low, while Supernatural (1.0) and The Mindy Project (1.1) both went down.

CBS ruled Tuesday with the always reliably stout Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (2.8) and The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show (3.3) sandwiching a repeat of NCIS (1.7). Both these specials were just barely down from last year (3.0/3.4 respectively) when CBS aired them on separate nights (putting Rudolph a couple weeks earlier and Secret following original episodes of the NCIS twins).

The superhero shows preliminarily inched down from last week, but The Flash (1.5) was still above its usual level before the Arrow cross-over (and Supernatural (1.1) had a particularly strong night). ABC's fall finales of Agents of SHIELD (1.7) and Forever (1.1) also declined by 0.1 with less lead-in support at 8/7c from Santa Claus is Comin' to Town (1.1), but these shows were still ahead of some previous episodes (when they had more drama competition).

NBC's struggles continued with another new low for The Voice (2.2) leading to more declines from Marry Me (1.2) and About a Boy (0.9) and a modest Angelina Jolie news special at 10/9c (1.0). Fox's New Girl (1.5) and The Mindy Project (1.2) each picked up a tenth.

There was no big post-Walking Dead really for ABC's dramas. In fact, Once Upon a Time (2.0) was preliminarily down another tenth, putting it on the year-to-year negative side for the first time all season. But Resurrection (1.0) did get back one tenth and Revenge (1.2) was up two.

On the other two networks, the NFL overrun made a big impact. Fox's The Simpsons (2.8), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.1), Family Guy (2.2) and Bob's Burgers (1.6) all shot up to at or barely below the last time they had the overrun two weeks ago, while overrun-less CBS saw The Mentalist (1.1) take a huge week two drop and CSI (1.2) a two-tenth drop leading out of an I Love Lucy Christmas special (1.4) at 8/7c.

Championship Saturday in college football was a massive reversal of fortunes compared to last year. Fox's Big Ten Championship (1.7) went from a tight epic in 2013 to a 59-0 massacre this year, putting that game at well under half of last year's 4.5. Meanwhile, ABC's ACC Championship (3.1) went from rout last year to yet another Florida State nail-biter this time, and it nearly doubled last year's 1.7. The games had pretty similar initial interest (ACC 2.6 to B1G 2.1 in the 8:30 half-hour), but that 0.5 advantage for ABC had quintupled by 10:30 (ACC 4.0 to B1G 1.5).

FINALS UPDATE:Grimm (1.2) adjusted up to avoid tying its low. The Pac-12 Championship was just a tenth above the prelims at 1.9.

Fox had a rare night of Friday leadership thanks to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which had a preliminary 1.8 from 9:00-11:00 and figures to adjust up once the West Coast viewership is accounted for.

Opposite a stronger Fox, no entertainment programs really had anything to crow about. Cristela (0.9) hit a new low, putting it on pace with year-ago occupant The Neighbors. It was the only series to hit an outright low, but plenty of others like Last Man Standing (1.2), Shark Tank (1.8), Grimm (1.1) and Constantine (0.8) tied or were very close to their season low points. The NBC dramas had a worse lead-in than usual from holiday special How Murray Saved Christmas (0.9), while CBS also failed to score much traction with its 9/8c special A Very Grammy Christmas (0.8).

Only The Amazing Race (1.2) and 20/20 (1.4) grew vs. the previous episode, while the two-hour finale of America's Next Top Model (0.4) was flat.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: Downward adjustments put The Great Christmas Light Fight at a very solid 1.7, well above anything from its three-week run last season (including last year's 1.4 premiere). However, Castle (1.4) adjusted all the way down to a new series low.The picture brightened somewhat for Mike and Molly (1.9) after a finals uptick, putting it just a tenth behind its 2BG lead-in.

CBS' return to original programming saw 2 Broke Girls (2.0) bounce most of the way back from its major stinker a couple weeks ago, and Scorpion (2.1) also had its best rating in four episodes. But the network didn't get much out of the return of Mike and Molly (1.8), only managing to premiere at the same 90%ish retention of 2 Broke Girls that it tended to score when they aired a half-hour later last year. That's a definite step up from what The Millers brought to the slot, but not exactly by a runaway margin.

On NBC, another very low edition of The Voice (2.5) led into State of Affairs, steady at its mediocre 1.6.

ABC had great preliminary numbers for the return of The Great Christmas Light Fight (1.9), but the finals will change that since it was preempted in both Monday Night Football markets. Fox's repeats fell to sub-CW levels, and CDub's Jane the Virgin (0.5) was up a tenth.

Monday, December 8, 2014

I'm very happy to announce the addition of two more seasons to the "A18-49+ Era"! In other words, I've gotten enough data to be able to calculate a fairly accurate average rating for original non-sports series on the big four in the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons. I now have almost* every 18-49 rating for the six broadcast networks in those two seasons. In this post, I will have a few brief introductory remarks on the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons, and we'll go into much more detail later in the month.

Friday, December 5, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: After finals, Mom (2.0) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) ended up noticeably above their Thanksgiving numbers but below what they had been getting after original Big Bang. The McCarthys (1.4) was pretty much back to normal, while Elementary (1.2) was even with Thanksgiving (and thus above the last couple ratings against TGIT and Parenthood). Peter Pan Live! adjusted up to 2.4, making the drop from Sound of Music less than half.

NBC's second stab at a live musical event did not capture the national attention to nearly the same degree. Peter Pan LIve! (2.3) managed merely half of last year's The Sound of Music Live! rating and was pretty soundly rejected across the half-hours (starting at 2.7 and ending with a mere 1.8 at 10:30). Though the Carrie Underwood-fueled numbers from last year were always going to be extremely difficult to replicate, I'd guess NBC is at least a bit disappointed here. But this rating is likely still strong enough to keep the tradition alive for now. It looks worse than it is because of how enormous last year's event was.

ABC began its two-month TGIT hiatus with a soft start for The Taste (0.9), which only tied the low point from last season and was down nearly a third from last year's 1.3 opener. It may benefit in future weeks from NBC going lower, but this wasn't the start ABC wanted.

Elsewhere, Bones (1.5) had a decent uptick with no competition from The Big Bang Theory or Grey's Anatomy. And we'll visit CBS after finals, as the network was heavily inflated by pre-emptions in both of the large Thursday Night Football markets.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

The second half of the CW's The Flash / Arrow crossover was the more explosive one, as Arrow (1.4) vaulted to a new series high (and up by a whooping half point vs. its last episode). This is the rating that normal episodes of The Flash have been getting, which is huge.

NBC was stronger than usual with specials Christmas in Rockefeller Center (1.9) and Saturday Night Live Christmas (1.9). However, both of these specials declined considerably from last year (when they hit 2.3/2.6 respectively).

These NBC specials may have contributed to a great deal of ugliness elsewhere; after all, ABC also had a very bad night on this same Wednesday last year. But it was at least as poor again this time, with The Middle (1.6), The Goldbergs (1.7), Modern Family (2.8) and Black-ish (2.1) all at least 10% below their previous season lows. CBS was also soft with two hours of Survivor (2.1/2.0) and Stalker (1.5) failing to bounce back from their Thanksgiving Eve ratings. And Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and Red Band Society (0.9) were also on the low end (though at least above the Thanksgiving Eve deliveries).

FINALS UPDATE:The Flash (1.6) adjusted up, now up 0.2 week-to-week and hitting its best rating since week two. Chicago Fire (1.7) adjusted up to round out a full night of week-to-week upticks for NBC, while Marry Me (1.3) dropped 0.1 in finals.

ABC got some of its best numbers of the season in the Tuesday 8/7c hour with new holiday special Toy Story That Time Forgot (1.9) leading into classic special A Charlie Brown Christmas (2.1). This was well behind the new Halloween-themed Toy Story special in 2013 (3.1), but Charlie Brown was up two tenths year-to-year. That added lead-in support plus perhaps some audience fleeing CBS repeats produced a positive night for the ABC dramas; Agents of SHIELD (1.8) had its best rating since the season premiere and Forever (1.2) snagged its best rating since late October.

A good night for superheroes continued on the CW as the first half of a crossover between The Flash and Arrow saw a small uptick for The Flash (1.5). Often it's the second show that benefits more in these situations, so we'll see what happens with Arrow, though last night's story on Flash was largely self-contained.

With CBS and ABC way down from last week (when CBS had originals and ABC a DWTS finale), there were also some minor upticks on the other original networks. The Voice (2.6), Marry Me (1.4) and About a Boy (1.1) all bounced back from last week's truly egregious numbers, but Chicago Fire (1.6) had no such luck (at least in the demo). MasterChef Junior (1.6) and New Girl (1.4) were up a tenth for Fox.

On a much less competitive (and less interrupted) night than the November sweeps Mondays, NBC's State of Affairs was desperate for a week three rebound. It got one, but a 1.6 probably isn't enough to really change the picture here. It will have to keep going up in the final post-Voice weeks (or hold up extremely well after The Voice leaves) to get meaningfully back in the mix.

Elsewhere, ABC went with two-hour special CMA Country Christmas (1.6, up a tick from last year when it aired at 9/8c) into Castle (1.5), tying a season low with its worst lead-in of the season. Fox's Sleepy Hollow (1.5) fall finale hit a pretty typical rating despite a repeat lead-in from Gotham (1.0). And CBS aired four Mike and Molly repeats (1.2 / 1.2 / 1.2 / 1.1) on the Monday before its premiere.

FINALS UPDATE: It got a little less ugly on ABC after finals after Once Upon a Time (2.1) and Resurrection (0.9) adjusted up, but all three dramas still hit outright season lows.

CBS had a massive NFL overrun from Patriots/Packers that happened to end right at 7:30 ET, making these preliminary numbers a bit less subject to huge adjustments than usual. At the moment, CBS is tracking toward a season high for 60 Minutes (3.7), a best-since-premiere number from Madam Secretary (1.9) and a pretty good start for the final season of The Mentalist (1.6) (even with last year's premiere and above all The Good Wife results in the slot this season).

With CBS strong, NBC airing an above-average football game and AMC with a The Walking Dead finale, there was very little audience left for the other two entertainment networks. ABC had a particularly disheartening meltdown as Once Upon a Time (2.0) dropped by 17% while Resurrection (0.8) and Revenge (1.0) were down a full third. Fox punted again with repeats of both The Simpsons (1.0) and Family Guy (1.1). Given those results, Bob's Burgers (1.0) and especially Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.4) held up OK at the bottom of the hours.

Though it's usually not as viewing-depressed as the previous two nights (at least compared to typical levels for the night of the week), Black Friday was still not too kind to the few originals that aired. NBC's three-hour lineup of Dateline (1.3), Grimm (1.2) and Constantine (0.9) was down across the board. None of these ratings were all that irregular, though Constantine did give back most of last week's odd surge.

On CBS, The Amazing Race (1.0) tied a season low, and holiday specials Frosty the Snowman (1.1) and Yes, Virginia (0.7) were down massively year-to-year. (Though they aired a week later last season.)

FINALS UPDATE:Elementary (1.2) gained another tick, putting it at a tie for its season high.

It was a quiet Thanksgiving Thursday for CBS' original comedies, as Mom (1.6) was down nearly a full point, Two and a Half Men (1.5) nearly a third and The McCarthys over 20%. Normally they'd be expected to hold up better than this even on the viewing-depressed evening, but they had the double-whammy of also having to air for the first time after a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.7). As a result, the declines lessened throughout the night, culminating in Elementary (1.1) actually building by a tenth week-to-week.

NBC was an overwhelming #1 with NFL football, while Fox got what would be a pretty good rating out of two-hour special Cause for Paws (1.6). But based on the breakdowns (2.8 -> 1.5 -> 1.2 -> 1.0), it's pretty clear that the late afternoon NFL lead-in was of great assistance here and may have even run into the 8:00 hour. If so, it will adjust down. ABC was very quiet with a Robin Roberts special (0.6) and How to Get Away with Murder repeats (0.5/0.6).

Always an interesting lesson in how different shows react to viewing depressions, this Thanksgiving Eve saw CBS' Survivor (2.1) take a three tenth week-to-week drop, while Criminal Minds (2.2) and Stalker (1.6) were very close to even.As usual, younger-skewing Fox was hit much harder; Hell's Kitchen (1.1) and Red Band Society (0.7) each lost over 20% week-to-week.

Usually a Thanksgiving Day tradition, ABC's A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving (2.1) was much improved year-to-year on the higher-viewed Thanksgiving Eve, and it helped boost repeats of Modern Family (1.5) and Black-ish (1.2) to well above last year's repeats. The CW's movie Planes, Trains and Automobiles (0.6) also grew a tenth year-to-year, but NBC's preview special for Peter Pan Live! (0.6) went well behind a similar special for The Sound of Music Live! last year (1.0).

Welcome to the final Best Case/Worst Case of 2014, visiting a five-pack of premieres straggling across the last weeks of the year. Though many of these are short-order schedule fillers, I'm excluding some of the very short-order schedule fillers. (Sorry, The Sing-Off and The Great Christmas Light Fight!)

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

FINALS UPDATE:Dancing with the Stars (3.0) gained a tenth, putting it up 25% year-to-year. NCIS (2.5) gained a tenth, putting it down just a tenth from last week.

ABC took over Tuesday primetime with the two-hour season finale of Dancing with the Stars (2.9) leading out of a recap special at 8/7c (1.9). This finale was up a whooping 21% year-to-year. What had been a pretty quiet season of DWTS for the most part really took an amazing turn for the better in the last couple weeks.

NBC, probably the lineup most vulnerable to ABC's strengthening, had another very soft night. The Voice (2.3) took another noticeable drop at 8/7c, tying a rating for a recap special just three weeks ago. Comedies Marry Me (1.1) and About a Boy (1.0) got particularly ugly, dropping 0.4 and 0.3 respectively, and Chicago Fire (1.6) gave back a half point after its big rating last week.

The other three networks were very close to even with last week; only NCIS (2.4) changed by more than a tenth (it was down 0.2), and only Person of Interest (1.7) was up (by 0.1). The Flash hit its fourth straight 1.4, while Supernatural (0.9) and New Girl (1.3) each lost a tenth.

FINALS UPDATE: CBS' 60 Minutes (3.2) and Madam Secretary (1.6) went down after the overrun was properly accounted for, leaving them at pretty unsurprising levels. The Simpsons (1.5) dropped another tenth, putting it down an even 50% week-to-week. And Sunday Night Football (8.1) was up a point vs. last week.

ABC was well above average thanks to the three-hour American Music Awards (3.8), though the show was down 16% vs. last year's final.

The NFL overrun shifted back over to CBS; we'll have to wait for finals
since the overrun ended in the middle of the 7:30 half-hour, but none of the dramas appear too out of the ordinary based on prelims. And NBC's Cowboys/Giants Sunday Night Football likely posted the biggest SNF rating in at least a month.

Fox had a very bad night without the overrun and with the extra competition. Mulaney (0.7) had a quiet first episode at 7:30, helping to derail The Simpsons (1.6) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) (though Brooklyn can at least point to its continued positive retention). And after yet another repeat of Family Guy (1.2), Bob's Burgers (0.9) crashed by nearly half week-to-week in an alarmingly Mulaney-esque performance.

FINALS UPDATE:Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) got another tenth in finals, putting it at an outright season high.

After some strange things happened last week vs. the CBS awards show, most things got back to about two-weeks-ago levels this week. The closest thing to a surprise was on NBC, where Constantine (1.1) had a particularly big rebound to above all of its results from weeks two through four. Hard to know what to make of that for now, but the truth is probably somewhere between last week's 0.8 and this week's 1.1. Grimm (1.3) also had a minor rebound.

On ABC, Last Man Standing (1.3) and Cristela (1.0) declined back to usual levels and Shark Tank (2.0) and 20/20 (1.6) bounced back significantly.

And CBS was back in the entertainment series game after a week off, flat vs. two weeks ago except for a minor Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) uptick.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: After finals adjustments, State of Affairs ended up at a 1.5, down 32% from the premiere. This was a bad situation, but that's still a pretty poor showing. It needs to go up next week.

Other particularly ugly points included The Voice (2.6) and 2 Broke Girls (1.6), each down a half point week-to-week, and a new low for Sleepy Hollow (1.4). But there was a significant winner in Dancing with the Stars (2.5), whose performance finale was up big year-to-year and almost tied The Voice! Worth reiterating: this was an extremely irregular night.

With a double-dose of Monday Night Football (pre-emptions on both NBC and CBS) plus interruptions for Ferguson coverage in both the 9:00 and 10:00 hour, almost all of last night's ratings are subject to significant change, and there's arguably not a ton of value in them even after finals due to the disruptions. The only things that seem fairly certain/notable at the moment:

NBC's State of Affairs (1.7) took at least a somewhat sizable week two drop, though getting a 15-minute interruption after seven minutes of your second episode is a pretty rough break.

And ABC, which had (relatively) fewer disruptions, is currently up a bit more with the performance finale of Dancing with the Stars (2.4, even year-to-year) and Castle (2.0). Much more to come after finals!

Monday, November 24, 2014

These are the CW's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2014-15, lining up all
the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes
aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. These will be
updated every week. Also included in this year's edition: how the
last-one-third average changed vs. the previous episode (Last), the raw rating average over the comparable last-one-third period (A18-49), the full season's year-to-year trend vs. the same number of episodes last year (y2y), the percentage of the total viewership falling within the A18-49 demo (Skew), and the percentage of the A18-49 audience that is male (%Male).

These are Fox's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2014-15, lining up all
the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes
aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. These will be
updated every week. Also included in this year's edition: how the
last-one-third average changed vs. the previous episode (Last), the raw rating average over the comparable last-one-third period (A18-49), the full season's year-to-year trend vs. the same number of episodes last year (y2y), the percentage of the total viewership falling within the A18-49 demo (Skew), and the percentage of the A18-49 audience that is male (%Male).

These are NBC's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2014-15, lining up all
the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes
aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. These will be
updated every week. Also included in this year's edition: how the
last-one-third average changed vs. the previous episode (Last), the raw rating average over the comparable last-one-third period (A18-49), the full season's year-to-year trend vs. the same number of episodes last year (y2y), the percentage of the total viewership falling within the A18-49 demo (Skew), and the percentage of the A18-49 audience that is male (%Male).

These are CBS's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2014-15, lining up all
the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes
aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. These will be
updated every week. Also included in this year's edition: how the
last-one-third average changed vs. the previous episode (Last), the raw rating average over the comparable last-one-third period (A18-49), the full season's year-to-year trend vs. the same number of episodes last year (y2y), the percentage of the total viewership falling within the A18-49 demo (Skew), and the percentage of the A18-49 audience that is male (%Male).

These are ABC's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2014-15, lining up all
the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes
aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. These will be updated every week. Also included in this year's edition: how the last-one-third average changed vs. the previous episode (Last), the raw rating average over the comparable last-one-third period (A18-49), the full season's year-to-year trend vs. the same number of episodes last year (y2y), the percentage of the total viewership falling within the A18-49 demo (Skew), and the percentage of the A18-49 audience that is male (%Male).

Friday, November 21, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: After finals adjustments, it was still a big week-to-week drop for The Big Bang Theory (4.1), while Mom (2.5) landed down a tenth and Two and a Half Men (2.2) up a tenth vs. last week.NBC's The Biggest Loser (1.1) ended up tying its season low, but the schizophrenic Parenthood (1.3) bounced all the way back from last week's huge drop. Reign hit a truly ugly 0.3.

Fall finale week for TGIT produced a nice bit of growth for How to Get Away with Murder (3.1), up for the third straight week and hitting its biggest number since week three. But there were no real spikes for Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (3.1).

CBS should suffer less Thursday Night Football pre-emption damage than usual, as the only pre-emption was in the Pacific time zone, but some of the early programming was bumped. In preliminaries, The Big Bang Theory (4.0) took a noticeable hit, Mom (2.7) and Two and a Half Men (2.3) were slightly up, and The McCarthys (1.4) and Elementary (1.0) were flat.

NBC may take more finals damage due to a Kansas City pre-emption; as of now, The Biggest Loser (1.3), Bad Judge (1.2), A to Z (0.9) and Parenthood (1.5) were all up.

On the CW, The Vampire Diaries (0.8) recovered last week's one-tenth drop, while everything else there and on Fox was flat.

As of today, I'm adding a new table for each original entertainment show in the SpotVault, detailing how much each episode's True score is affected by the three (or four) major aspects of the formula. This is probably a dangerous way to go, as it may just serve to expose the problems with the formula, but hopefully that will only motivate further improvements going forward. I'm using this post not just as an explainer for what's in the table but also as a recap of how the formula works in general (and what's new this year).

Thursday, November 20, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: The Stalker surge was tempered a bit after it lost a tick in finals (1.6). Nothing else adjusted, which meant the season's first final 0.6 for The 100.

This was the first Wednesday in quite some time without some major event inflating one of the networks, plus the end of DST helping early-evening viewing. And it showed, as almost every network had something to crow about. We'll start with ABC, which had a great opening 90 minutes. A largely underwhelming season of The Middle (2.2) finally took a significant turn for the better, rising above all previous results this season. The Goldbergs (2.4) was up 0.3 to tie a season high, while Modern Family (3.7) came up just a tenth shy of its premiere's high point. Black-ish (2.6) and Nashville (1.5) were also up a tenth in prelims.

On CBS, Survivor (2.4) had its best rating since early October, and Stalker (1.7) bounced all the way back to the level it had been maintaining before all these events.

NBC continued to show nicely in the wake of its big crossover last week, with The Mysteries of Laura (1.4), Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) all faring a bit better than their usual pre-event deliveries.

Fox and the CW were steady across the board with last week's preliminaries, meaning yet another week of The 100 hoping to hold onto a preliminary 0.6 (a feat it has yet to pull off in three tries this season).

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

FINALS UPDATE:Chicago Fire (2.1) adjusted up in finals to finish down just a tenth week-to-week (and ahead of a year-ago episode that had a Voice lead-in). The Flash (1.4) ended up even for the second straight week, The Voice (2.7) got back a tenth as well, and Marry Me (1.5) lost one.

After getting mowed down by NBC's event last week, CBS bounced all the way back with NCIS (2.6), NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) and Person of Interest (1.6) all growing by three tenths week-to-week. This put each show right back on par with its season average.

Despite a low rating for The Voice (2.6) at 8/7c, NBC saw Marry Me (1.6) and About a Boy (1.3) bounce back to near the numbers when they last followed a fully original Voice three weeks ago. And Chicago Fire (2.0) had a particularly promising night at 10/9c; this was its highest result of the season leading out of About a Boy, and just two tenths behind the post-Voice ep last week.

ABC shook it up at 8/7c again and improved on recent comedy hours with a Shark Tank repeat (1.1). This may have helped Agents of SHIELD (1.6) a little bit.

MasterChef Junior (1.5) finally came back to earth somewhat on Fox; maybe some of its viewers flocked to the Shark Tank repeat? But New Girl (1.4) gained a tenth opposite less competition from NBC.

And the CW's The Flash (1.3) was down a tenth and Supernatural (1.0) up a tenth.

On a second straight Sunday with the NFL overrun, things went much better for Fox. Though The Simpsons (2.9) was only about even, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.2) and Family Guy (2.2) each took sizable upticks, and the installation of Bob's Burgers (1.7) at 9:30 nearly doubled last week's Mulaney rating.

ABC pre-empted Resurrection to air a two-hour edition of Once Upon a Time (2.4/2.3). Though Once's ratings were on the low end for this season, the better lead-in really seemed to help Revenge (1.5), which easily hit a season high.

On another without-overrun CBS night, Madam Secretary (1.5) pulled ahead of The Good Wife (1.3), while CSI (1.3) inched up from last week's low.

CBS ill-advisedly went off the ratings map on Friday, pre-empting its regular lineup for the invisible Hollywood Film Awards (0.5 and 4.1 million viewers) and a post-show in the 10:00 hour (0.4). This was down by more than half from CBS' usual Friday average.

Unfortunately, only a few scattered series took advantage, including Fox's repeat lineup of MasterChef Junior (0.7) and Gotham (0.6). Among originals, the most notable rise was ABC's 8/7c hour, where Last Man Standing (1.5) surged to a new season high and brought Cristela (1.1) up a notch as well. But ABC actually fared worse than usual in the later hours with Shark Tank (1.7) and 20/20 (1.2). NBC followed the same pattern: good at 8/7c with Dateline (1.5) but down later with Grimm (1.2) and what looks like a decisive death blow for Constantine (0.8).

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: ABC wasn't damaged too badly in finals and ended up with a pretty stellar night, especially for Dancing with the Stars (2.3), which shot to 0.3 above the level it's maintained pretty much since the start of the regular season. The Voice (3.1) and Sleepy Hollow (1.6) each went up a tenth.

While not a disaster, it was not a great start for NBC's State of Affairs (2.2), which went a couple tenths below the lowest number NBC has ever seen from The Blacklist with a The Voice lead-in. The Blacklist comparisons aren't particularly apt in terms of gauging renewal prospects, since that show is well above the renewal line. But at this starting level, it would be fortunate to settle at what Chicago Fire gets leading out of the Tuesday comedy block, so there doesn't seem to be much potential for an upper-tier performer here. It is worth noting that the show didn't get a lot of help from The Voice (3.0), down again to tie its lowest performance show rating ever.

The absence of The Blacklist seemed to help NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7) on CBS. It may have helped Castle too (2.0), though its current number is inflated by Monday Night Football pre-emptions. Most other shows were pretty steady week-to-week, with 2 Broke Girls (2.1) rebounding a bit and Jane the Virgin (0.4) giving back last week's uptick.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Approximately halfway between September premiere week and January premiere week, usually very light time of year for new series premieres, NBC is trotting out one of its biggest new drama hopes of the season. State of Affairs is another drama in the political thriller space that has seen plenty of recent successes like Scandal, The Blacklist and Homeland. This particular show is most notable as a vehicle for the highly polarizing Katherine Heigl, returning to TV after once finding fame on Grey's Anatomy. What is the State of Affairs in the post-Voice timeslot? That's The Question for Monday, November 17, 2014.

Friday, November 14, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: After finals, it was still a nice night for CBS' 8/7c hour, as The Big Bang Theory (4.5) was up two tenths for the second straight week, marking a solid recovery from its initial stumble after moving to Thursday. And Mom (2.6) finished up three tenths to a new series high. Two and a Half Men (2.1) was even week-to-week, The McCarthys (1.4) down a tenth, and Elementary down two more tenths to a simply ridiculous 1.0. I had always thought CBS would ride this one out on Thursday for the season, but... this is getting really bad.

Bones (1.3) got a finals uptick to avoid a new season low, but The Vampire Diaries (0.7) did not this time.

Week three of CBS' lineup will once again have to wait for finals due to pre-emptions in both of the Thursday Night Football markets. It's hard to imagine Mom (2.8) won't end up at least a bit above last week's 2.3, and The Big Bang Theory (4.5) may be up as well. But Two and a Half Men (2.2) and The McCarthys (1.6) each beat last week's finals by just a tenth and Elementary (1.2) was even.

TGIT's domination intensified in its penultimate edition of 2014 as Scandal (3.2) shot up to its biggest rating since week two and How to Get Away with Murder (2.9) was also up a tenth.

Elsewhere, even more ugliness than usual. Bones (1.2) shed another tenth on Fox, NBC saw Parenthood (1.0) hit a new low leading out of a particularly horrific A to Z (0.6), and The Vampire Diaries (0.7) will (as usual) hope for a finals boost to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power
Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the
strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season,
rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the
timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how
the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total
viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how
much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers
cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last
third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot
from week to week.

FINALS UPDATE: Modern Family (3.2) went up a tenth in finals, though this was still a new season low by two tenths. For the third straight week, The 100 (0.5)failed to hang onto its preliminary.

NBC took over the Wednesday primetime lead with a very strong finish to its Dick Wolf crossover. It started with a special hour of The Voice (2.5) matching the 2.5 for its special Thursday ep last year. That led into the two-hour drama event, which just about matched The Voice's delivery; there were massive spikes for Law and Order: SVU (2.4) and Chicago PD (2.2). Both shows went multiple tenths above their previous season highs this season, and PD tied its 2.2 series high from last season.

Against a stronger NBC (but a weaker ABC with the CMA Awards gone), it was a weirdly mixed bag on pretty much every other network:

ABC saw Modern Family (3.1) take a sizable hit, going well below any previous result this season, while The Goldbergs (2.1) also hit a season low, but the rest of the lineup was fairly normal;

On CBS, Survivor (2.3) was even against The Voice and Criminal Minds (2.3) bounced back to about normal after last week's stinker against the CMAs, but Stalker (1.4) hit another new low;

Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.5) continued a very good week for Gordon Ramsay by rising to tie a season high, which is pretty strong given the added unscripted competition. But this was of no help to Red Band Society (0.9);

And Arrow (0.9) fell back to earth, ending its run of three straight upticks, but The 100 posted a third straight preliminary 0.6 and will hope this one holds in finals.

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power
Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the
strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season,
rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the
timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how
the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total
viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how
much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers
cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last
third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot
from week to week.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

NBC's big cross-over week began with a two-hour The Voice (2.9) leading into Chicago Fire (2.2), which did about what would be expected from that kind of lead-in injection and not much more. As usual with these multi-night cross-overs, the bigger bounce tends to come on the second night when the first show's audience follows along, so let's see what happens with Law and Order: SVU and Chicago PD tonight.

On Fox, MasterChef Junior (1.8) actually held its entire premiere rating, a truly massive win for the network given the considerable influx of competition at 8/7c. But New Girl (1.3) and The Mindy Project (1.0) fell back to their normal post-Utopia levels, likely taking a hit from The Voice's presence at 9/8c.

The Voice at 9/8c also didn't help CBS, where NCIS: New Orleans (2.0) and Person of Interest (1.3) took distressingly large steps down.

ABC's Agents of SHIELD (1.5) will once again hope for a finals uptick to avoid a new low. Forever (1.0) also inched down again, while the installation of a repeat Modern Family (0.9) at 8:30 matched last week's Selfie result (but at least was better than Manhattan Love Story).

A solid week for the CW continued as The Flash (1.4) had its first non-drop in week five, while the 200th Supernatural (0.9) was up a tenth.

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power
Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the
strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season,
rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the
timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how
the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total
viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how
much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers
cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last
third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot
from week to week.

FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (3.0) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.9) each picked up a tenth. Sunday Night Football (6.5)indeed hit a season low, but it was only a couple tenths behind last week.

The NFL overrun swung back to Fox, but it ended relatively early. So The Simpsons (2.9), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.8) and Family Guy (1.8) benefited a good bit less than normal; Nine-Nine was only a tenth above last week's no-overrun result and Family Guy hit a new low. Since Fox insists on continuing to air Mulaney (0.9), it went back up with the return of an original lead-in.

CBS dramas Madam Secretary (1.4) and The Good Wife (1.4) were back at normal non-overrun levels, while CSI (1.2) crashed to a new low.

On ABC, it's been getting closer for awhile, and it finally happened: Revenge (1.3) beat its much-better supported lead-in Resurrection (1.2) (at least in prelims). Once Upon a Time (2.5) was down a tenth.

NBC's huge blowout on Sunday Night Football could be headed for a season low. More after finals.

CBS dominated with its annual primetime LSU/Alabama matchup, but the 2.8 rating was actually far below the matchup's recent deliveries. (It had a 4.0 and 4.1 the last two years and a ridiculous 7.2 for the "Game of the Century" three years ago.) A big part of this softness can probably be attributed to competition from multiple other games with major playoff implications; for example, ABC's 2.0 for Ohio State/Michigan State was far more of a player than on this night last year (when ABC had just a 0.6).

FINALS UPDATE:Shark Tank (2.0) rose to even with last week's episode. Blue Bloods (1.3) lost its new season high (but still tied).

It was the first time in three Fridays with no World Series and no Halloween, and the majority of shows were up vs. the results on those nights. NBC was up across the board, which was good news for Dateline (1.4) and a pretty much back-to-normal Grimm (1.3). However, one-tenth growth for Constantine (1.0) probably isn't enough to meaningfully make up for its severe week two drop.

CBS also grew from start to finish as The Amazing Race (1.2), Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) and especially Blue Bloods (1.4) were all on the rebound. It was a new season high for Bloods, which may set it apart somewhat in an extremely crowded CBS drama race.

ABC had an uptick for Last Man Standing (1.3) and a big night for 20/20 (1.7), though Cristela (1.0) was unable to bounce back from the 1.0 it saw the last two Fridays. Fox's MasterChef Junior repeat (0.6) roughly matched the average of pulled Utopia.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: ABC's shows each shed a tenth due to the pre-emption, but that was it for adjustments. The CW's upticks held.

It wasn't a pretty opening to week eight on the big four, with the majority of series either hitting or tying season lows. Most of the new lows came on CBS with disheartening declines for 2 Broke Girls (1.9), The Millers (1.5) and Scorpion (2.0), while Fox's dramas Gotham (2.2) and Sleepy Hollow (1.5) were among the series to tie their lows. NBC's The Voice (3.2) took a hit the week before State of Affairs' arrival.

The only big four series to avoid season lows were ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.1) and Castle (1.7), both of which may adjust down due to a Monday Night Football pre-emption, and the final Monday edition of The Blacklist (2.5), which still could adjust down to tie its low.

The only network eying some legit good news was the CW, where The Originals (0.7) and Jane the Virgin (0.5) swung up. They didn't have a Monday Night Football pre-emption, but I never know if there was something NBA-related...

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power
Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the
strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season,
rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the
timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how
the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total
viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how
much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers
cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last
third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot
from week to week.

Monday, November 10, 2014

After an unfortunate delay for some maintenance, the True Power Rankings have finally returned! As always, these rankings dive into the strength of series based on the last one-third of results this season, rounded up (which helps weed out inflated early ratings), in the timeslot-adjusted metric True and in A18-49 ratings. Also included: how the show is trending vs. last season (y2y), how much of the show's total viewership falls within the 18-49 demo (Skew), and, new this year, how much of the 18-49 audience is male (%Male). These last three numbers cover what is available for the full season rather than just the last third of results, but generally the age/gender skews don't change a lot from week to week.

Friday, November 7, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: CBS got brutalized again in the finals, putting Mom (2.3), Two and a Half Men (2.1) and The McCarthys (1.5) all down by multiple tenths from last week's premieres. NBC also took hits in the finals but was still slightly up week-to-week for the most part.And The Vampire Diaries (0.8) again got an uptick to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.

Week two of CBS' return to Thursday entertainment programming with The Big Bang Theory (4.2), Mom (2.6), Two and a Half Men (2.3), The McCarthys (1.7) and Elementary (1.4) saw most shows even to slightly up from last week's finals. These results are once again pending an NFL pre-emption, though it may not be as brutal this week with only one pre-emption in a modest market.

ABC put Grey's Anatomy (2.4) back in the 8/7c hour and it saw no real effect in its first episode against The Big Bang Theory. After rising with no Grey's last week, Scandal (2.9) fell with its lead-in restored, while How to Get Away with Murder (2.8) inched back up.

NBC preliminarily had growth across the board with The Biggest Loser (1.3), Bad Judge (1.1), A to Z (1.0) and Parenthood (1.4)... but it also had a pre-emption.

Fox's Bones (1.3) didn't rally from its big drop last week, while the CW's Reign (0.4) dropped and The Vampire Diaries (0.7) will need another finals uptick to avoid a new season low.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: While The 100 couldn't hold its 0.6, there was some very good news for the CDub: Arrow upticked to a new season high 1.1, putting it ahead of the year-ago episode. The blow to Chicago PD (1.4) was also softened somewhat, though it still marked a new season low.

ABC took its lineup off for the always potent CMA Awards (4.5). It was pretty close to last year's 4.7 final.

Despite the added ABC competition, most shows were close to even, including the return of Hell's Kitchen (1.3) and Red Band Society (0.9) after a World Series hiatus. The notable exceptions: CBS' crime dramas Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.5) each dipped to new lows, and NBC's Chicago PD (1.3) had a real stinker of an outing on an otherwise steady NBC. The 100 posted a second straight preliminary uptick to 0.6 and will hope to hold onto this one in finals.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: Fox's good night (and CBS' strong repeats) went unchanged in finals, but it got even worse for the comedies elsewhere. Selfie is now at twin 0.9's, while About a Boy (0.9) adjusted down by a truly brutal two tenths.

On a night with a lot of repeats, clip shows and pre-emptions due to election coverage, Fox had the entertainment world almost completely to itself, and it appears they took major advantage. MasterChef Junior (1.8) returned two tenths above last year's Friday premiere and well above what the network has been getting lately from Hell's Kitchen. It'll probably drop once NCIS and The Voice are back; but if it holds close to this in finals (not sure about local pre-emptions), it seems likely to remain a stronger option than Hell's. This lead-in support also vaulted New Girl (1.6) and The Mindy Project (1.3), which had best-since-premiere numbers and beat the competing NBC comedies in the 9/8c hour.

The comedies on other networks didn't benefit against reduced competition; Marry Me (1.3) and About a Boy (1.1) each dropped again following a The Voice clip show (2.3), while a double-dose of Selfie was down for ABC (1.0 at 8:00, 0.9 at 8:30). ABC then sat out Agents of SHIELD for a weaker Marvel special (1.2). CBS and the CW were in full repeat/election coverage mode.

It was a bounce-back Sunday for ABC's drama trio of Once Upon a Time (2.5), Resurrection (1.4) and Revenge (1.2). That may in part be thanks to the 7:00 hour, which surged with the re-installation of America's Funniest Home Videos (1.2) after last week's much weaker special.

CBS had what looks like one of its bigger NFL overruns from a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning showdown. The lineup started very close to 8:00 Eastern and appears to have significantly boosted 60 Minutes (3.3) even over recent overrun results. And Madam Secretary (1.8) likely posted its biggest number since the premiere.

For the first time in a month, Fox aired its regular lineup without the NFL overrun and saw Bob's Burgers (1.5), The Simpsons (2.0) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.6) roughly match their deliveries from that night. Then came yet another Family Guy repeat (1.2) for some reason. And finally airing in a bad situation, Mulaney (0.7) plummeted well below its premiere rating from a month ago. Maybe this will be enough to get it pulled.

CBS began its two-week foray into primetime college football on top, with its Notre Dame/Navy game (1.1) making a surge late in primetime to beat out uncompetitive games on ABC and Fox. The broadcast games figure to fare a lot better next week with LSU/Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan State on tap, but everything this week finished way behind ESPN's competing Ole Miss/Auburn (1.80).

It was a pretty scary Halloween ratings-wise in general, but nowhere more than at NBC. Grimm (1.1) took a significant drop from last week's premiere and newbie Constantine (0.9) crashed by a half-point. Next Friday will be the first truly normal Friday situation for these shows, but Constantine has put itself in a deep hole.

There were actually a few week-to-week risers on Halloween, but most were shows that severely underachieved vs. the World Series last week, like The Amazing Race (1.1) and Last Man Standing (1.2). The one true bright spot, even moreso than usual, was Shark Tank (2.0), tying its season high on the lowest-viewed Friday of the season to date.

Meanwhile, Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Cristela (1.0) did not bounce back from drops last week, but we'll see if they can do so when viewing increases next week. Blue Bloods (1.1) hit a season low, and Utopia (0.5) fell in its return after a week off.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: With New York City taken out of the CW numbers, Jane the Virgin (0.4) was even week-to-week and The Originals (0.5) hit a new low. ABC's CMA Awards preview (1.2) did significantly worse than Castle, while The Voice (3.5) was the only series to get an upward adjustment in finals. ESPN's Monday Night Football (4.3) hit a season low.

Week seven finally put an end tothe long streak of declines for Gotham (2.4), as the series rebounded by two tenths. But that was of no help to Sleepy Hollow (1.5), down to a new low for the second straight week.

CBS saw small declines across the board in its second week with no The Big Bang Theory. 2 Broke Girls (2.2) dropped two tenths to a level at which CBS will still probably be pretty content. The Millers (1.6), Scorpion (2.2) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) each shed a tenth, marking new lows for all three.

On NBC, The Voice (3.4) and The Blacklist (2.4) gave back last week's gains. ABC and the CW were pre-empted for Monday Night Football, so it's likely another deceptive rise for Jane the Virgin (0.6).

Friday, October 31, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: Factoring out NFL pre-emptions took CBS' Thursday from neutral to decidedly negative. The winners in the prelims, Mom (2.5) and Two and a Half Men (2.4), moved into a much more "meh" territory, while The McCarthys (1.7) now looks extremely bad and Elementary (1.2) is an almost unbelievably abject disaster.

On the plus side, Scandal (3.1) rose to put it on the week-to-week upside, while The Vampire Diaries (0.8) upticked to avoid its first 0.7 of the season.

CBS' return to Thursday entertainment programming was very much a mixed bag. They'll definitely take the series high 2.7 start for Mom at 8:30, though it looks a little better than a 2.7 would seem on the surface because its lead-in The Big Bang Theory (4.1) took a hit in its return from Monday. It will probably decrease in finals but right now it's about two-thirds retention, which is wayyy better than The Millers. Two and a Half Men (2.7) was definitely a win, hitting its highest rating since last season's premiere and fully retaining Mom. But things got very troublesome starting at 9:30; The McCarthys (1.9) barely managed 70% retention on premiere night, and Elementary (1.4) could only get back to the series low at which it ended last season.

ABC was only at two-thirds strength for TGIT #6, but Scandal (3.0) held up fabulously even with a Peanuts special (1.7) filling in well below Grey's Anatomy numbers at 8/7c. However, How to Get Away with Murder (2.7) took a bit of a hit at 10/9c.

With a second reasonably-rated network back in the entertainment game, there were some major ratings stinkers on the other networks. Bones (1.3) went well below its recent deliveries at 8/7c, while NBC hit lows anew with The Biggest Loser (1.1), Bad Judge (0.9), the now on death watch A to Z (0.7) and Parenthood (1.1). The Vampire Diaries (0.7) also had a bad night for the CW.

Here are my yearly lineups of each new scripted show's premiere
rating
and its week two drop, plus a link to each First Two Weeks post. This is not to be confused with the new "First Two Weeks" game standings, which probably won't come out till around upfronts time when all renew/cancel decisions are official.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Yes, CBS has a series premiere on the opening Thursday for its entertainment lineup, but I think the more intriguing piece of Question fodder is the show CBS is actually bothering to put directly after its biggest series. Sophomore comedy Mom had a respectable but mostly unassuming first season airing after modest lead-ins 2 Broke Girls and Mike and Molly. Tonight, it's back with a lead-in that should be at least 50% higher than anything it ever had last season. The pairing seemed to have some promise in summer repeats, but those passive viewing situations can exaggerate compatibility. Will Mom be the mother of all Big Bang lead-outs? That's The Question for Thursday, October 30, 2014.

FINALS UPDATE: Game 7 of the World Series ended up at 6.6, up an incredible 89% from Game 6. This helped to somewhat salvage an otherwise horribly-rated Series, putting its viewership average just ahead of the previous low series average from 2012. (Although the 2012 Series was just four games...)

The CW survived its Chicago pre-emption almost unscathed, with Arrow holding an impressive 1.0 and The 100 (0.5) down just a tenth to tie last week's premiere.The Goldbergs (2.2) and Modern Family (3.5) each adjusted up, making an even The Middle (1.8) look worse by comparison. And the 10/9c tie was decisively broken as Stalker (1.6) inched up and Nashville (1.4) down.

TV's biggest event on Wednesday was Game 7 of the World Series, which combined a very compelling game with the usual Game 7 heat to take an enormous spike over the generally bad numbers for the rest of the series. Household overnights were up 59% from Game 6, and the demo spike looks likely to be even bigger. (The preliminary was a 5.7 vs. Tuesday's preliminary 3.0.) More after finals.

The Game 7 probably helped to limit what would've normally been some Halloween episode heat, especially on ABC. The Middle (1.8) and The Goldbergs (2.1) were down slightly in the 8/7c hour, Modern Family (3.4) was even, and Black-ish (2.7) and Nashville (1.5) were up slightly. CBS also took a hit with Criminal Minds (2.3) and Stalker (1.5). Apparently there were pre-emptions for the CW's Arrow (1.0) and The 100 (0.6), so we'll see how those look after finals.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

FINALS UPDATE: CBS got some more help for NCIS (2.6) and Person of Interest (1.7), each now up two tenths from last week. The Flash (1.4) cut its week-to-week drop to 0.1, but Agents of SHIELD (1.7) didn't get its usual finals uptick. On NBC, The Voice (2.9) was up but Marry Me (1.5) lost another precious tenth.

The World Series gota 3.5, a series high but a simply miserable number for a Game 6 historically speaking. (Recent Game 6's, even one that didn't end the series like in 2011, took well over a point jump from Game 5. This was up 0.2...)

ABC pre-empted its low-rated comedy hour in favor of special The Great Halloween Fright Fight (1.1), presumably a spin-off of its The Great Christmas Light Fight series. It was an improvement on the usual comedy ratings, especially at 8:30 vs. Manhattan Love Story. And that may have helped Agents of SHIELD (1.7), which bounced back by a tick and may even be up two after finals. Forever (1.1) was down a tenth.

NBC had a brutal Tuesday as The Voice (2.8) took a half-point drop at 8/7c. That helped further derail Marry Me (1.6), About a Boy (1.2) and even Chicago Fire (1.7), all two tenths behind last week.

On a second World Series Tuesday, the CW had a third straight two-tenth drop for The Flash (1.3) and a third straight one-tenth drop for Supernatural (0.8). CBS was steady as NCIS (2.5) increased for the first time all season and Person of Interest (1.6) also inched up.

As for Fox, its 6th game of the World Series was a massive blowout and is thus only barely ahead of the Tuesday rating a week ago in prelims. But Fox at least got the winner they wanted; namely, the team down 3-2 survived, setting up a decisive Game 7 and a likely significant spike tonight.

FINALS UPDATE:Once Upon a Time (2.4) and The Good Wife (1.5) each upticked, meaning both of TGW's best numbers this year came at a 10/9c start time. The Walking Dead (7.0) remained slightly ahead of last fall's pace.

The World Series got a 3.3, down 20% from last year's 4.1 for Game 5 and a steeper 28% from the Sunday game (Game 4) last year. Another weak result for the Series, but it is worth noting that Fox had the late NFL game on this night last year. NBC's Sunday Night Football (7.1) had one of its lowest results of the season but was still 13% above the 6.3 on World Series Sunday last year.

On a sports-filled Sunday, the one network without any sports took a big hit. ABC's Once Upon a Time (2.3), Resurrection (1.2) and Revenge (1.1) all took further double-digit drops. This three-hour period (and Once itself), once such a massive explosion for ABC, was only barely on the year-to-year upside on this night. But if you're looking for a reason for these shows to rebound, maybe the lead-in at 7/6c had something to do with it. A Star Wars Rebels special (0.6) was completely invisible, only doing about half of the usual America's Funniest Home Videos numbers.

Elsewhere, this was the one game of the World Series that had to deal with primetime NFL competition, though a considerable portion of the country had regional NFL leading in on Fox. And NBC's NFL game appears to be down a fair amount week-to-week. More on all this after finals.

The CBS lineup started after NFL overrun at right around 8/7c (pre-empting CSI). In the preliminaries, Madam Secretary (1.5) and The Good Wife (1.4) were at typical levels.

Game 4 of the World Series (2.6) was down almost half from last year's Game 4 (4.6), but that's of course largely because of the move from Sunday to Saturday. It's fairer to compare with last year's Game 3 on Saturday (3.3), and it was still down about 20% there.

ABC's football game (1.4) picked up major steam after primetime with a close finish and the end of the World Series game. Despite a 1.4 average for the game, no primetime half-hour averaged higher than 1.3!

FINALS UPDATE: The World Series averaged a 3.1, two tenths behind Game 3 on a Saturday last year. Grimm (1.4) adjusted down a tenth.

By NBC's usual late October premiere Friday standards, it was a pretty modest night. Grimm (1.5) returned down three tenths year-to-year and Constantine (1.4) dropped another tenth from there (putting it four tenths behind last year's Dracula premiere). Without knowing what the exact standard will be for Constantine, I would say this was not that horrible. But it's clear that it must hold up a lot better in the post-premiere weeks than Dracula did. That might be possible, since the World Series was in play on this evening, but week two will have to deal with low-viewed Halloween night.

The double-whammy of NBC's premieres plus the World Series produced some ugly results on the other networks. ABC's comedy duo of Last Man Standing (1.1) and Cristela (1.0) each sunk two tenths, while The Amazing Race (1.0) gave back all of last week's surge and then some more. Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) joined them at a new low.

The strongest results actually came against the Constantine premiere and the later portion of the game at 10/9c; Blue Bloods (1.3) was up a tenth despite the struggles earlier in the CBS evening, while 20/20 (1.5) had a major surge in its first week without competition from Dateline.