Profile: Melancon's fantasy outlook changed quite a bit after being traded to the Red Sox. He went from being a potential great late-round pick as a good closer on a bad team to potentially unrosterable depending on how the Red Sox use him. The right-hander saved 20 games for the Astros during his first full season in the big leagues, using his fastball-curveball combination to rack up huge ground-ball totals (56.7%) and a solid strikeout rate (7.99 K/9). Melancon cut down on his walks considerably as the season progressed, which could allow him to get into sub-3.00 walks per nine and sub-1.20 WHIP territory next year. He had little competition for saves in the Houston bullpen, plus he was a very good vulture wins candidate (eight wins in 2011) because Brad Mills was willing to use him late in tie games. Melancon has all the tools necessary to close for the Red Sox, but they might not let him, at least not right away. He'll be a must-own in holds leagues, however. (Mike Axisa)

The Quick Opinion: The trade to the Red Sox clouds Melancon's fantasy outlook just a bit, but his second half improvement in walk rate suggesting a drop in WHIP is forthcoming. He'll be a mus- own in holds leagues with a chance for saves at some point.

Profile: To say that 2012 didn't start in optimal fashion for Melancon would be a dramatic understatement. In four outings to start the season totaling two innings, Melancon allowed 11 runs, and was promptly demoted to Triple-A. While demoting him seemed like the proper move at the time, Melancon promptly turned things around, and pitched the way the team expected. He posted a 1.40 FIP, and was recalled to Boston in mid-June. He wasn't perfect when he returned, as he allowed four runs in a game on three different occasions, but he pitched much better. He struck out 40 batters and walked just 10 in 43 innings from June until the end of the season, and his FIP in each of the final four months was 2.96, 3.50, 4.17 and 1.09 -- a far cry from the 37.59 mark he posted in April. Traded to Pittsburgh in the offseason, he should be in position for a great deal of work at the end of games, and is a good bet to net some holds, if not saves. Jason Grilli is nominally the Pirates' closer, but Melancon could figure in that picture if all goes well. That makes him a definite sleeper on draft day. (Paul Swydan)

The Quick Opinion: Back in the National League, Melancon has a chance to be a good end-of-game option, and should Jason Grilli falter, he may be next in line for saves in Pittsburgh.

Profile: Jason Grilli was one of the best relievers in baseball last season, but when he landed on the disabled list, Melancon stepped in as the Pirates' closer without missing a beat. Melancon struck out a healthy 25.1% of batters, walked a stingy 2.9%, managed an impressive 60.3% ground ball rate, and allowed just one home run all season. That's the quadfecta of reliever dominance and it's pretty safe to say that we shouldn't expect a repeat. With Grilli healthy once again, Melancon will fall back to being one of the better setup relievers in baseball. One of the keys to his success was the walk rate, which translated to just eight batters all season. He's never shown that level of dominance in the past and regression is likely. He'll be most useful to owners in holds leagues, but his performance should be good enough to roster in almost any league. Grilli is rather old and may be fragile at this point in his career, so Melancon has a good chance to save some games next season too. (Brad Johnson)

The Quick Opinion: Melancon had one of the best reliever seasons of recent memory and he did it without the gaudy strikeout rates of a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman. Instead he channeled his inner Scrooge to allow just eight walks and one home run over 71 innings. Regression is likely, but strong performance should still be expected.

Profile: Entering last season as the set up man after a solid season in the same role the year before, Melancon took advantage of Jason Grilli's struggles and became a very valuable closer for a majority of the season. The good part is that Melancon repeated his stellar 2013 campaign. The bad part is that Grilli was coming off an amazing season himself -- but his leash proved short after he blew four saves. Tony Watson is a stellar reliever as well, and if Melancon struggles, Watson would be next in line. Melancon has turned from a pitcher just barely above replacement level to one of the top relievers in the game, so draft him with confidence. But know that he has struggled before, and if he were to do so again he could be removed from his role. When it comes to drafting closers, having a choke hold lock on the role is the most important attribute, and while Melancon clearly has the stuff and two years worth of data to show that he can be a top tier pitcher, the Pirates' quick hook with his predecessor is somewhat of a caution sign. Even so, odds are Melancon pitches very well and maintains his closer spot. You likely will not need a handcuff, but if you have an roster space getting Tony Watson would be wise. (Ben Duronio)

The Quick Opinion: Melancon put together his second elite season in Pittsburgh, this time as the team's closer. He walked just 11 batters all season and has the stuff to be a top tier closer. Be cautious since the Pirates had quick hook with Jason Grilli, but odds are you will be happy to have Melancon on your team.

Profile: The good: Mark Melancon is decidedly the full-time closer for a team that expects, and projects, to contend for a division title for its fourth-straight year. He ranks among the elite at inducing ground balls, has posted the seventh-best ERA (1.85) among qualified relievers the last three years, and has thrown more innings in that timeframe than any reliever except teammate Tony Watson. Alas, Melancon perfectly blends quality and quantity. The bad: Melancon's strikeout rate dipped four percentage points in 2015. His cutter, which he throws more than half the time, registered its worst swinging strike and contact rates since 2011. Hitters simply chased the pitch less often, and made more contact when they did. The decreased effectiveness likely ties back to declining velocity: Melancon lost more than a mile per hour on both his cutter and fastball in 2015. It's an overgeneralization -- few pitchers regain velocity in a big way, with injuries usually being the exception -- but once velocity is gone, it's gone. Melancon enters his age-31 season with considerable job security and an excellent recent track record of durability and dependability, but his peripherals indicate the possible onset of decline. His excellent command and ground ball rate should help offset the ill effects of more contact, but the evaporating K's make him more a back-end top-10 closer, albeit a reliable one. (Alex Chamberlain)

The Quick Opinion: Mark Melancon's combination of quality, volume, and job security make him an excellent play as a fantasy team's bullpen anchor. Declining velocity may be contributing to a dip in strikeouts, however, pushing him outside the top five closers where he once typically resided.

Profile: Four years of extremely effective relief work bought Melancon four more years of job security and the intense scrutiny that a record-setting contract solicits. Since usurping Pittsburgh's closer role in 2013, he ranks fourth in WAR, third in ERA, second in innings pitched, and first(!) in win probability added (WPA) among qualified relievers. He has been the perfect blend of durability and reliability, and, for $62 million, the Giants likely expect nothing less. In this day and age, when high-strikeout relief arms come a dime a dozen, Melancon's meager strikeout rate doesn't inspire much optimism. His age (32) only serves to compound the concerns. But he's a ground ball machine who suppresses quality contact — hence, the excellent batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed — and hates giving away free bases. In other words, not many hitters reach base against him, which is, you know, a great way to not give up runs. And he doesn't have to rely on velocity to succeed. Although the ground ball rate is trending in the wrong direction, Melancon should still fare well in baseball's most pitcher-friendly ballpark. The strikeouts prevent him from entering the elite tier of closers, but his volume and efficacy at least keep him in that discussion. He's a top-five closer. (Alex Chamberlain)

The Quick Opinion: Melancon's middling strikeout rate leaves something to be desired, yet it hasn't prevented him from being arguably the game's most valuable closer the last four years. His aversion to free passes, fly balls, and DL stints make him one of the game's most reliable ninth-inning options.

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