The Forex Zone: US Dollar Weakness

The second edition of a regular feature, FX Explained in The Forex Zone. We will take a video run through of the Major Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD upside risks

A Thursday extension above the 1.1289/1.1304
resistance area to build on Wednesday’s surge above 1.1250/53 resistances, to
reinforce the erratic, intermediate-term theme, but to also set the bias higher
for Friday.

For Today:

We see an upside bias
for the 1.1317; break here aims for the key 1.1348 peak, maybe towards 1.1390

But below 1.1268
opens risk down to 1.1233.

GBPUSD risk stays higher

A Thursday extension
higher above resistance at 1.2708 and the down trend line from early May to
just stop and the May-June basing neckline, to build on Wednesday’s strong
advance, to keep risks higher into Friday.

For Today:

We see an upside bias
for 1.2727; break here aims for 1.2763 and maybe closer to key 1.2814.

But below 1.2630
opens risk down to 1.2540.

USDCAD bear forces intact

A further plunge
Thursday as also seen Wednesday after the Fed Meeting to wipe out further June
support at the multiweek low as 1.322, to reinforce both short- and
intermediate-term bear threats, keeping risks lower for Friday.

For Today:

We see a downside
bias for 1.3145; break here aims for 1.3114/10 and then 1.3064.

But above 1.3246
opens risk up to 1.3308.

AUDUSD upside risks increasing

A firm advance Thursday to build on the positive,
but erratic tone Wednesday after the Fed, now up through 6909 resistance to
just stall at our 6938 barrier (at .6936), to sustain upside forces from
Tuesday’s rebound exactly from our .6829 level (support from the very early
2019 flash crash), keeping the threat higher Friday.

For Today:

We see an upside bias
for .6936/38; break here aims towards key .6973.

But below .6884 opens
risk down to .6852/48.

NZDUSD intermediate-term shift to neutral from bearish; risks higher

The surge Thursday
through .6593 now sets a broader, intermediate-term range, we see as .6681 to
.6484/80, BUT with the skewed bias for an intermediate-term bullish
shift above .7022.

The strong rally
Thursday also keeps the threat higher Friday.

For Today:

We see an upside bias
for .6604; break here quickly aims for .6628, maybe even towards key .6681.

But below .6549 opens
risk down to .6510/06.

USDJPY bear trend re-energised

Another plunge lower Thursday through 107.79/74
supports and overnight through 107.10 to reinforce Wednesday’s post-fed
selloff, having been reluctant through
June to overcome the resistance area at 108.72/80 restarting the
intermediate-term bear bias from the late May/ early June plunge through
notable support at 108.47 (from January 2019), keeping the risks lower into
Friday.

For Today:

We see a downside
bias for 107.02; break here aims for 106.72/55, then maybe towards 106.00.

But above 107.39 aims
for 107.88 and maybe opens risk up towards 108.40

Comment on this video

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EURUSD gains over the past week have primary echoed US Dollar losses, as global financial markets have shifted to a “risk on” mode, with global geopolitical tensions easing. Positive news last week around the US-Sino trade war, Brexit and from Hing Kong have seen stock averages rally, whilst the US Dollar has weakened, having been … Continued

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