In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Ah yes that must be it, but just a moment, why didn't prices drop 20% during the same period last year??? Weird eh?

Maybe it really is different this time!

In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Ah yes that must be it, but just a moment, why didn't prices drop 20% during the same period last year??? Weird eh?

Maybe it really is different this time!

LolYou really are grasping at straws rentah/geyser. Why the boner?Doesnt it take more than 3 weeks worth of activity before you pronounce a crash?I think we'll know by late autumn if the market is in correction. By then, 4 months worth of data to hang your hat on.Take a cold shower bud.

I am seeing a big slowdown in sales which I think is caused by a decent sized spread in the bid and ask on the available inventory.

The question is who blinks first - sellers or buyers. My hunch is sellers as they hold the majority of the risk - especially those holding multiple properties or those who made recent purchases with the intention of flipping.

I am seeing a big slowdown in sales which I think is caused by a decent sized spread in the bid and ask on the available inventory.

The question is who blinks first - sellers or buyers. My hunch is sellers as they hold the majority of the risk - especially those holding multiple properties or those who made recent purchases with the intention of flipping.

Land owners hold the scarce resource. Money is a lot easier to find than Vancouver land.

How far do you suppose the prices will fall before the prices again attract offshore interest in spite of the tax? Couple that with the constraints we have long argued about as physical barriers constricting supply (ALR,Border,Ocean) All of these things actually increase the Asian appetite for this location. Dont forget the fact that this culture is noted for an "all in" mentality when it comes to gambling, and they also think in terms of generations when it comes to time horizons in their investment strategies. FWIW I have reduced my exposure in terms of RE. I`m not renting though, so I`m not a Bear. More like a Raccoon, I will buy if I see an easy opportunity, but until I do I will just take a nap.This market could resonate for a while.I used to enjoy halibut fishing...It always amazed me how long it took the big ones to die in the hold.

But this is the first time my bearish mutterings have been accompanied by a 20% drop in a single month. That should be alarming to any over-leveraged Bulls.

The fact that the bubble has inflated way past what many thought would be the bursting point, is an indicator that the inevitable "pop" is getting closer not further away. In any cyclical market each day of the bull market is one day closer to the next bear market.

I've never met anybody capable of consistently calling tops and bottoms with any reliability but, history has repeatedly demonstrated that the bigger and longer the bull market runs, the bigger and longer the crash. And this bull market has been huge and lasted way longer than usual.

In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

I'm sure the market will implode, but has anyone made money off zero hedge prognostications? And they have been bearish since I can remember.

There are perma-bulls and perma-bears in every cyclical market, and eventually they are both proven wrong. I try to be a bit more flexible with my views, as the circumstances change, so do my expectations. I used to be a bull cheerleader on this forum until the odds shifted towards the inevitable downturn. I initially became a little less bullish and eventually I became much more bearish. I remain a long-term bull on Vancouver but I know that sometimes "long-term" can mean many decades.

As more and more time passed by, and as prices rose higher and higher, it became increasingly apparent that a modest and short lived correction was no longer likely. We have now reached a point where the likelihood of a major crash seems quite high.

Ah yes that must be it, but just a moment, why didn't prices drop 20% during the same period last year??? Weird eh?

Maybe it really is different this time!

LolYou really are grasping at straws rentah/geyser. Why the boner?Doesnt it take more than 3 weeks worth of activity before you pronounce a crash?I think we'll know by late autumn if the market is in correction. By then, 4 months worth of data to hang your hat on.Take a cold shower bud.

When did a "pronounce a crash"? Suggesting that the start of a big downturn "may be underway" is far short of announcing that Armageddon is already upon us, but even you should be able to concede that some very ominous black clouds are gathering, even if they do look rose colored through your lenses.

In future why don't you read my own words instead of attributing the news reports directly to me. I'm just the messenger but if you had a better memory capacity you would remember that just yesterday I wrote this:

"I think it may be well beyond October before we know with any certainty that the bubble has burst. If it follows the typical pattern there should be a sharp drop (which already appears underway), followed by a modest but short-lived recovery, followed by a massive collapse. It could be next spring before the really big plunge."

I can sense your fear and perhaps that is impacting on your ability to calmly consider the growing possibility of a major downturn. Perhaps you are the one who should be taking a shower?

In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Youre both right.I wouldnt throw words aroound like "imploding" just yet. Like Torts said about the Canucks "We are trending down"

Agreed, hence my statement yesterday:"I think it may be well beyond October before we know with any certainty that the bubble has burst. If it follows the typical pattern there should be a sharp drop (which already appears underway), followed by a modest but short-lived recovery, followed by a massive collapse. It could be next spring before the really big plunge."

In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.