There is now a campaign of deceptive books and articles designed to persuade people that all is well on the environmental front. The basic message of this campaign is that some favorable trends show green concerns to be "doomsaying." Our basic message is that "indirect trends" such as those listed below are more relevant to human welfare than direct ones such as the prices of metals.

Julian Simon has been a leader in this campaign. He is best known for his belief that resources are infinite (he wrote in 1980 that the theoretical limit to the amount of copper that might be available to human beings was "the total weight of the universe"!) and that population can and should grow indefinitely. He's still at it ("Earth's Doomsayers Are Wrong," Chronicle, May 12), this time citing a 1986 report prepared by social scientists for the National Academy of Sciences that was subsequently protested by a substantial number of Academy scientists. Somehow he missed the 1994 statement from the academy and 57 other national academies of science worldwide that contradicted his position. He also ignored the 1993 "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," signed by about 1,700 leading scientists, including more than half of all living Nobel laureates in the field, which reads in part: "A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated. . . . A new ethic is required -- a new attitude towards discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize the earth's limited capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its fragility. . . . The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect people everywhere. We need the help of many."

It is impossible to say exactly how direct measures of human well-being will be impacted by the general deterioration makes society increasingly "vulnerable" to severe negative impacts.

One of us (PRE) once made the mistake of being goaded into making a bet with Simon on a matter of marginal environmental importance (prices of metals). Simon says he still wants to make bets. We are thus now challening him to bet on "trends" of much greater significance to long-term human material welfare. We wager $1,000 per trend that each of the following 15 continental and global scale indicators will change in the direction indicated ("get worse") over the next decade:

1. The three years from 2002 to 2004 will on average be warmer than 1992-1994 (rapid climactic change associated with global warming could pose a major threat of increasing droughts and floods).

2. There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994. Carbon dioxide is the most important gas driving global warming.

3. There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994. Nitrous oxide is another greenhouse gas that is increasing because of human disruption of the nitrogen cycle.

4. The concentration of tropospheric ozone globally will be greater in 2004 than in 1994. Tropospheric ozone has important deleterious effects on human health and crop production.

5. Emissions of sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly greater in 2004 than in 1994. Sulfur dioxide becomes sulphuric acid in the atmosphere, the principal component of acid rain, and it is associated with direct damage to human health.

6. There will be less fetile cropland per person in 2004 than in 1994. As the population grows, some of Earth's best farmland is being paved over.

7. There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than there was in 1994. About a quarter of the world's top soil has been lost since World War II, and erosion virtually everywhere far exceeds rates of soil replacement.

8. There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person in 2002-2004 than in 1992-'94. Rice and wheat are the two most important crops consumed by people.

9. In developing nations there will be less firewood available per person in 2004 than in 1994. More than a billion people today depend on fuelwood to meet their energy needs.

10. The remaining area of tropical moist forests will be significantly smaller in 2004 than in 1994. These forests are the repositories of some of humanity's most precious living recourses, including the basis for many modern pharmaceuticals worldwide.

11. The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its downward trend and thus in 2004 will be smaller than in 1994 (overfishing, ocean pollution and coastal wetlands destruction will continue to take their toll.

12. There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in 2004 than in 1994.