Opinion: Our house is on fire, and many Albertans want more lighters

It boils down to this. 1) Albertans have become very wealthy by exporting fossil fuels. 2) Scientists state that the climate crisis is an existential threat to civilization. 3) The only way to minimize catastrophic climate change is to immediately decrease our fossil fuel use as quickly as possible. 4) 3 threatens 1.

Let’s unpack some of this, shall we? 1) Due to geographical fortune, our province sits on a vast reservoir of fossil fuels: coal, natural gas and oil. With their high energy content and transportability, they have been highly desired for (historically) a much higher value than their extraction cost, which has made us extraordinarily rich. Even now, in the downturn, even as many people are hurting financially, we still have the highest average monthly income in Canada. Being rich is fun, and we don’t want it to end.

The problem is Point 2. As time passes, and we put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, it’s becoming increasingly clear that all that we love is at risk. Our ecosystems, food systems, economic systems, life support systems. Scientists are talking about a doomsday scenario where it all just collapses, within our lifetimes, if we don’t act now.

There is this persistent hope that we here in Alberta we’ll be somehow spared from this fate. We live up in the North, so we’ll just get nicer winters. And the joys of being landlocked is we don’t even have a coastline to deal with as the seas rise. These are false hopes. Of the five most costly natural disasters in Canadian history, three have occurred in Alberta, all in the last decade. And it is going to get much, much worse as temperatures rise. We are not safe.

So what is to be done? Aside from so hopefully-not-serious discussions about evacuating humanity (perhaps only the rich people) to the planet Mars, we are left with Point 3. To stay within 1.5 C of global surface temperature warming as a planet, a range considered somewhat safe, by 2030 we’ll need to have cut our emissions by almost half, an extremely ambitious target. This implies a full-on, Second World War-style transformation to a carbonless economy. The majority of these cuts will come from coal, but we definitely need to lower our oil and gas use as well, soon.

Albertans can have some relief in that despite the threat of impending doom, people continue to burn fossil fuels rapaciously, with 2018 even showing a rise in emissions over the previous year. But the news is now replete with two kinds of climate stories. The horror stories: whole towns being blown away by hurricanes, people being incinerated in their vehicles fleeing wildfires. And the innovation stories: cheapest wind and solar electricity prices ever, new amazing electric vehicles outperforming old-fashioned cars. At some point we’ll reach a tipping point, and fossil fuel will begin to fall (perhaps rapidly, like a safe climate requires).

Which brings us to Point 4. We, as Albertans, are far from accepting this future. Our governments pine for infinite growth in our oil and gas sector. There is a real sense that anyone advocating for a safe climate is treasonous; The two of us are likely to be among the first up against the wall in the coming turmoil. The ground is shifting rapidly under our feet, and Albertans don’t like it. We want to skate to where the puck used to be. Scrap the carbon tax. Overturn the court judgments. Separate from the nation. Hang the prime minister. All echoes of the same refrain.

These are all an effort to slow the transition. This delay will allow us to have more time to pump more oil (a.k.a. more $) out of the ground. After all, as Justin Trudeau famously said, “No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil and just leave them.”

Meanwhile, outside of our echo chamber, people are getting scared. The climate crisis threatens them and their children, and they have little recourse but to do their own marching in the streets. As people become ever more endangered, on both sides, the rhetoric, and actions, will escalate.

The future is nebulous, the choices we make today will define our future. A worse-case scenario? That we end with Albertans as rich kings presiding over a dead world. But, the optimist in us hopes that Alberta supports the transition and stays relevant in a society that acts to protect itself. And that our kids will have a safe climate to enjoy as they grow old.

Joe Vipond is an emergency physician in Calgary. He sits on the board of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment.

Noel Keough is an associate professor of sustainable design at the University of Calgary. He is the president of the board of Sustainable Calgary Society.

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