The World; Walesa's Victory Now Complicates Poland's Unease

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December 30, 1990, Page 004002Buy Reprints The New York Times Archives

STALIN once remarked that Communism fit Poland about as well as a saddle on a cow. The question these days is whether democracy suits this country of 38 million any better.

It's not that anyone looks back with fondness to the 45 years of rule by the monolithic Communist Party. But the 15 months since the Communists relinquished power have been characterized by rising social discontent that overwhelmed one Government and complicated efforts to assemble a successor.

And the election of Lech Walesa this month as Poland's President has so far done little to shore up a shaky political system that lacks both organized parties and a freely elected Parliament. Mr. Walesa has, instead, moved decisively to cement his own position as Poland's pre-eminent politician, leaving doubts about how an effective opposition can grow in his shadow, and what shape it can take. The Only Player?

Several leading figures have refused the premiership and lately Mr. Walesa has publicly courted Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki, whose own candidacy, in competition with Mr. Walesa's, was firmly rejected by the voters in a first round of balloting in November. Rather than reading it as a sign of reconciliation, Mr. Walesa's backers were disappointed in the extension of an invitation to a man they had decisively defeated in the election.

"It looks as if Walesa wants not only to be the main political actor, he now wants to be the only political actor," said Jadwiga Staniszkis, a sociologist and supporter of Mr. Walesa. "He is systematically destroying the other main groupings."

The newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza , an often-fierce opponent of Mr. Walesa, saw in these twists and turns an attempt by the new President to broaden his base and draw anew the political map of Poland.

"Walesa is simply such a politician," the newspaper said in a commentary this week. "Nobody knows now from whom he will draw his support and who will stand in opposition to him in the future. Divisions which emerged during the presidential elections do not necessarily answer these questions today as new divisions are arising."

Indeed, Mr. Walesa's attitude toward the newspaper's own editor last week offered more evidence of his desire to disarm all political opponents. The editor in chief, Adam Michnik, waged a tireless crusade against Mr. Walesa through the presidential campaign, warning that he might even become Eastern Europe's first post-Communist dictator. Yet last week, Mr. Walesa held nearly two hours of talks with Mr. Michnik, who said afterward, "I am convinced the conversation will be continued."

By Eastern European standards, the political turmoil in Poland seems comparatively manageable. Unlike in Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, there are no ethnic minorities pressing for autonomy or independence. The ambitious program for fostering the transition to capitalism is regarded as being a full year ahead of neighboring countries. Yet there are problems just below the surface. The economic program demands an extraordinary degree of social consensus if it is to succeed, and it is about to enter its most painful phase, when widespread privatization is expected to bring higher wages for some and layoffs for others.

Mr. Mazowiecki had broad support when he became the country's first post-Communist Prime Minister in September 1989, but he had lost it by last month, when he finished a distant third in the presidential elections. Supporters of Mr. Mazowiecki insist that it is Mr. Walesa who is to blame for stirring popular unrest; Mr. Walesa insists his candidacy was an effect, not a cause, of the national unhappiness that unseated Mr. Mazowiecki.

During the election campaign and since, Mr. Walesa has stressed that he plans to keep the basic economic plan that Mr. Mazowiecki tried to implement, though with "modifications" in key areas such as agriculture and mining. He rejected one proposal to demote Leszek Balcerowicz, the Finance Minister and Vice Premier who drew up the plan, from his pre-eminent position over economic matters. It now appears certain that Mr. Balcerowicz will retain his positions.

Whether by design or necessity, Mr. Walesa's lengthy search for a prime minister in the three weeks since his election has clouded thePolish political picture.

So far, he has proposed two ideas: Keep Mr. Mazowiecki and his Government for now and hold parliamentary elections on schedule in the spring, or name a new prime minister but postpone the elections for a year. Critics say the first choice could blur the distinctions that might lead to the development of a strong opposition, while the second would delay the development of democracy itself.

During the presidential campaign, Mr. Walesa himself inveighed against the sitting Parliament as undemocratic because 65 percent of the seats in the lower house are guaranteed to Communists or their former allies. In the presidential election, the candidate of the successor party to the Communists finished with less than 10 percent of the vote. Disappointed Followers

Just last week a group of Mr. Walesa's closest supporters, called the Citizens Committee of Lech Walesa, chided him for appearing to ignore the electorate's distaste for the Mazowiecki Government.

"We should insure that voters see the consequences of their choice, and we must show that voting is an effective method of exerting an influence on those in power," the committee said in a statement.

Underlying the Citizen's Committee's warnings is continuing disquiet among political leaders here over the electoral showing of Stanislaw Tyminski, an emigre businessman who finished second in the runoff round with 25 percent of the vote. Mr. Tyminski, starting as a political unknown, won the support of millions of young people, unemployed, and residents of small towns.

Krzysztof B. Kruszewski, a sociologist hired by Mr. Walesa's presidential campaign to study the Tyminski phenomenon, said he has written a report for the new Government that warns of its significance. Mr. Kruszewski, whose company conducts marketing and sociological research, said Mr. Tyminski ran particularly well in small towns because people who live there fear they won't be able to find any job if the local factory goes bankrupt.

"This group, even if small, will be one of the most important problems facing the new Government," said Mr. Kruszewski. "Its structure is very similar to what we saw in the 1930's in the Weimar Republic."

A version of this article appears in print on December 30, 1990, on Page 4004002 of the National edition with the headline: The World; Walesa's Victory Now Complicates Poland's Unease. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe