Saturday, 27 June 2015

June's Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) summary has taken so long to come out I had stopped checking for it. Commenter Nightvid let me know last night that it was out (Thanks!). And whilst I am on the subject of prediction I will include my prediction for Cryopshere Today Area (CT Area).

Tuesday, 23 June 2015

I don't know if you have already read and discussed conclusions presented in this article, but it suggests that GAC -2012 was not a major factor in record ice retreat. I thought it may be useful to the discussion on preconditioning of ice melt and summer ice cover.

Thursday, 18 June 2015

This blog post was based on data from the US Navy's ACNFS model (known as HYCOM in this post). It has turned out that the massive melt shown in the model was due to a technical glitch. This post is kept as I don't delete posts, but it is no longer considered valid.

It's bad form to blog on consecutive nights, but I'm now going to say something that has been on my mind for over a week.

Last year, and the year before, I recollect a lot of excitable discussion at the forum in June about how we were going to see a crash in sea ice. A lot of talk about how the weather would shift and massive losses would start, of course as we now know, that just didn't happen.

Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Just a quick post with some graphs, because things are looking better in the Arctic Ocean for a more exciting melt season than the last two years. All of these graphs use anomalies from the 1981 to 2010 average.

Sunday, 14 June 2015

June seems to represent a crucial period of pre-conditioning for the summer melt season, with large June sea ice losses in years of large summer losses, such as 2007, 2011 and 2012. The purpose of this blog post is to consider what is happening in June this year, and the prospects for the rest of June and the summer.