Race to replace Stockman seen as a toss-up

GALVESTON - In some ways no one can replace Steve Stockman, who chose not to seek re-election to Texas' 36th Congressional District and instead mounted what many see as a quixotic primary challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

None of the 12 Republicans running in the primary to replace Stockman is likely to match the shenanigans that, analysts say, made Stockman an embarrassment to some in the party.

"In many ways Stockman did the party a big favor," said Rice University political science professor Mark Jones. "They couldn't get rid of him. Whoever replaces him will be much less of a distraction and have much less of a negative impact on the image of the Texas Republican Party and the Republican Party more generally."

Republican stronghold

Related

No single candidate has emerged with a clear advantage in the 36th District Republican primary, which likely will decide the race. The district is so strongly Republican that the other candidates - one Democrat, one Independent, one from the Green Party and two Libertarians - have only a ghost of a chance, said Brandon Rottinghaus, University of Houston political science professor.

The 36th District gave President Barack Obama 26 percent of its 2012 vote.

Because there are so many candidates, a runoff May 27 is likely, Jones said. He said a candidate could win a runoff spot with as little as 15 percent of the vote.

Sprawling district

The district sprawls across nine counties, covering 7,126 square miles from Harris County to the Louisiana border. Harris County accounts for about half the district's population of 712,000. The Harris County portion includes blue-collar cities like Baytown, Deer Park, La Porte and part of Pasadena and more affluent communities like Clear Lake, Taylor Lake Village and part of Webster.

The remainder of the population is spread across eight counties where lumbering, farming, ranching and oil and gas dominate the economy.

The 36th District is the product of redistricting following the 2010 census and is one of the safest Republican congressional seats in Texas, Jones said. Conspicuously absent from the East Texas district is Democratic-leaning Jefferson County, which includes Beaumont.

The member of Congress from this district will likely be elected by its most conservative voters because they are the most likely to cast ballots in primary elections.

"It's going to go way toward the right end of the spectrum in this primary," said Richard Murray, a University of Houston political science professor.

Scramble to run

More Information

The candidates

Republican

John Amdur: Nassau Bay councilman

Brian Babin: former mayor of Woodville

Doug Centilli: former assistant to state Sen. Mike Jackson and chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Kevin Brady

Jim Engstrand: Seabrook businessman who lost to Stockman in 2012 primary

Phil Fitzgerald: former Liberty County judge

Patricia Kasprzak: a teacher from Crosby

John Manlove: former Pasadena mayor

Chuck Meyer: Hardin County assistant district attorney defeated by Stockman in 2012 primary

Michael Cole: a teacher from Orange who ran against Stockman as a Libertarian in 2012

Libertarian

Robb Rourke: Deer Park resident who ran unsuccessfully for Texas House District 144 in 2012

Rodney Veach: a Houston technician

Green Party

H.J. Ridley Jr.: Bridge City resident

Independent

Timothy Kimberly

Most of the 12 Republicans in the primary got into the race on short notice when Stockman made his announcement in December, so there has been little time for a leader to emerge, said David Jennings, who oversees the conservative Big Jolly Politics blog.

All but one of the Republican candidates appeared last week at a forum in Silsbee. The Texas Tribune reported that when former Seabrook Mayor Robin Riley took his turn to talk about immigration, he said: "You're hearing the same from most of the candidates. I don't want to repeat, but I will say I agree with everything that's been stated."

His remarks illustrated how little difference there is among the candidates on issues. Murray said the 36th District race is similar to the contest among conservatives for lieutenant governor, with each candidate trying to out-conservative the next.

"They are all against Obama, they are all for shutting down the border and they are all for gun rights," Murray said.

Despite their consistent views, a few appear to have advantages that could propel them into the runoff.

Deepest pockets

The candidate with the most money so far is tea party member Ben Streusand, the former president of the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association and former chairman of Americans for Prosperity Texas, which has had a powerful influence on conservative electoral politics. Streusand's most recent filing with the Federal Election Commission reported $252,000 cash on hand, more than any other candidate.

The next largest treasury is that of former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove with $159,000. The only other candidates reporting were John Amdur, Nassau Bay councilman, with $106,000; Brian Babin, former Woodville mayor, with $119,000; and Doug Centilli, former chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Kevin Brady, with $49,000.

Jennings said Streusand is viewed by many in the district as a "movement conservative," which could give him the lift he needs.

Translator

To read this article in one of Houston's most-spoken languages, click on the button below.

"Streusand stands out because he's the only Ted Cruz candidate," he said, referring to the U.S. senator elected in 2012 who espouses tea party views.

Manlove also has the advantage of being well-known in Harris County, which provided the most votes in the 2012 primary in the district, Jones said. Out of 54,433 votes cast, 18,444 were from Harris County. The next largest were 7,421 from Orange County and 6,914 from Liberty County.

Jenings said Babin had wide name recognition outside Harris County that could edge him into the runoff.