Mar. 14, 2014
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Pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. / FILIPPO MONTEFORTE, AFP/Getty Images

by Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

by Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON - Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to mass forces along east Ukraine's border is another effort to keep Ukraine's new pro-Western government weak and on the defensive, analysts say.

But a Russian incursion into the region would be substantially more difficult than the Russian experience so far in Crimea.

Russians would likely face resistance from Ukraine's military and a population less supportive than they are in Crimea, which is majority ethnic Russian.

The Russian military would ultimately defeat the much smaller and lightly equipped Ukrainian military, but it would raise the stakes greatly.

"They would lose, but it would be bloody and very public," said James Howcroft, a retired Marine intelligence officer and military attache with extensive experience in the region.

By contrast, the occupation of Crimea has been largely nonviolent and the Ukrainian armed forces have not confronted the Russians.

Eastern Ukraine has a significant ethnic Russian population too, but the sympathy for Russia is not as deep as Crimea, where ethnic Russians are a majority.

Russia's Defense Ministry said thousands of Russian troops in the regions of Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk and Tambov bordering Ukraine are involved in the exercises, which will continue until the end of the month, the Associated Press reported.

In the southern Rostov region, the maneuvers involved parachuting in 1,500 troops, the ministry said, the Associated Press reported.

"He can show to the Russian people that Russia isn't backing down," Dan Fata, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund and former Pentagon official, said of Putin.

The troop movements come as Crimea is to vote Sunday on a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia and as diplomats continue to try and defuse the crisis.

Secretary of State John Kerry was meeting today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in London in an effort to resolve the escalating crisis.

"We have a lot to talk about," Kerry said as the two entered the meeting.

The timing of Russia's troop movements may be designed to increase pressure in the region on the eve of the referendum, some analysts said.

"It is mainly for intimidation purposes and it is tied to the referendum," said Alisa Moldavanova, a political science professor at Wayne State University who has researched Ukrainian security issues. "It improves his bargaining position," she said of Putin.