Burnaby South By-Election Monday February 25, 2019

I really can't put my finger on it, but for some reason I still believe he wants to distance himself from Ontario/Quebec.

Here's some wild speculation. Jag/NDP may feel that in the next federal election, there may be another big orange wave or the potential for one. If he already has a seat in the house, it will be easier for him to build maintain momentum leading up to the election.

But from what I have read, the PM doesn't have to call this bi election. If there's no bi election call then what?

The PM doesn't have to call either THIS by-election or the Outremont by-election. He is liklier to do so, however, if he thinks there's a chance to embarass the NDP in either or both of them.

The good news for those of us fighting on the ground in Burnaby and Blue River is the federal NDP is going to have to start talking tough about its opposition to Kinder Morgan and bitumen tankers in Burrard Inlet.

He has to call both, after each riding's been vacant for six months. I suppose he could, if he were really determined to, call the Burnaby by-election in February and then say the by-election period lasted until the October general election (playing all kinds of havoc with campaign finance laws), but why? That'd immediately change the conversation from from "Singh's afraid to be in the House" to "Trudeau's afraid to have Singh in the House".

"Alberta's NDP Premier Rachel Notley has all but declared war with federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. In a remarkable interview Friday, Notley criticized her fellow New Democrat as thoughtless, elitist and pretty much an enemy of the working people. She was so critical of Singh that at times I had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn't interviewing United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney..."

"Alberta's NDP Premier Rachel Notley has all but declared war with federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. In a remarkable interview Friday, Notley criticized her fellow New Democrat as thoughtless, elitist and pretty much an enemy of the working people. She was so critical of Singh that at times I had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn't interviewing United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney..."

Yikes.

Beautiful! Alberta NDP dog whistle politics that will convert conservative voters to the ANDP in droves! And other voters in BC to the federal NDP!

Like her or not, Notley is a fuckin genius and a powerful intellect and I think she's argueably the best Canadian politician this country has probably ever had! I love her!

Jagmeet Singh might as well send Rachel Notley a cake shaped like a middle finger

Jagmeet Singh’s days as federal NDP leader have been so ill-starred you almost feel sorry for the guy.

That’s not a good thing. Politicians want to look bold, decisive and successful, not confused, unlucky and accident-prone. Singh can’t get a break. The last good thing that happened to him was winning the New Democratic Party leadership race 10 months ago, and so much has gone wrong since then you have to wonder whether he wishes he’d never entered.

He’s young, articulate, and has a pleasant personality. Yet so hapless has his tenure become that the embarrassments are coming in pairs. Friday was meant to be a good day, in which he revealed he’d finally settled on a site to seek election to the House of Commons — Burnaby, B.C., where the local MP is quitting. Yet the announcement only sparked new questions. Lots of questions. ...

What would the NDPers do in the Alberta election tho, Pipeline Queen or Pipeline Jester Kenny, tough choice.

Personally, I would go for the one who reforms labour laws for the better and protects glbqt rights, rather than the one who opposes those things. YMMV.

I'd support Notley for re-election if I lived in Alberta-though I don't understand why she hasn't improved her party's chances by replacing first-past-the-post with pr yet; I mean she HAS to have realized by now that the ANDP will never win another Alberta election under the out dated British Empire electoral system-but it's not as if she can only win by acting as though B.C. has no right to refuse to allow a pipeline. People who are that obsessed with forcing Alberta oil through B.C. waters aren't really going to agree with the NDP on much of anything, after all.

But Singh has ground to make up. First, he needs to win Burnaby South, which the NDP narrowly won in 2015. Then Singh needs to recruit his candidate team, amp-up his fundraising and bring focus to his MPs’ work. If anyone in the NDP thought Singh would be allowed to succeed on style and fandom, expel that thought now.

Singh must show his New Democrats are a political force with a purpose – that an NDP vote will solve a problem for people where Liberals and Conservatives won’t. That’s why the NDP exists.

Yes, Liberal and Conservative pundits will talk down Singh. But if the recent Ontario election proved anything, nothing unites Liberals and Conservatives faster than their opposition to the NDP. They worry the NDP will pressure them for solutions people urgently need. Can’t have that.

So let’s really compare.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, born in Ottawa, is a career politician who started on Parliament Hill at age 21. As leader, his priority was to hire a former Rebel Media director as his campaign manager. He not focused on the challenges people go through everyday. There’s been no change from Harper’s policy of tax giveaways for the richest people and corporations. He’s put no pressure on Trudeau to address people’s urgent needs on housing or health care. Scheer is a politician without a point.

Then there’s Trudeau. He’s had three years to fix what Harper broke. He hasn’t stopped Harper’s stock option tax breaks. He hasn’t reversed Harper’s cut to health care transfers. Instantly, he finds billions for a pipeline. But on housing, transit, pensions and drug costs, Trudeau only has multi-year strategies and long-term plans. Thing is, people are waiting for solutions today.

Scheer won’t do what’s right. Trudeau hasn’t done what people need. People need someone who will push for more.

So, if voters want to tell Ottawa to get focused on what people are going through everyday, why not send that message with Jagmeet Singh?

That's the closest he's come to treating Quebec as if it matters. Before that, his approach has been to ignore the place completely and hope that somehow he can persuade voters in the ROC to swing to the NDP even if it does get wiped out in Quebec and thus doomed to stay in third place in 2019 no matter what happens anywhere else.

But the ridings Singh is touring this week will be difficult for the party to hold in next year's federal election — particularly since the NDP barely managed to hold on to them in 2015.

The New Democrats are currently polling at around 17 per cent in Quebec, a drop of eight points from their 2015 performance. The party's support has been largely flat ever since it collapsed after the 2015 vote, when the NDP still managed 25 per cent of the vote and 16 seats in Quebec — which was itself a big drop from its historic 2011 breakthrough.

With its current levels of support, the party risks being reduced to just a handful of seats in Quebec — or worse.

I think this is actually a bad move. It's pretty obvious that he's looking to use Burnaby as a stepping stone for his political career. How are people in Burnaby supposed to feel about that? Can there be a better example of Ottawa's voice in your riding? Sure, Singh says he will move to Burnaby if he wins. Politicians say that all the time. Suppose he wins. Will he stay there next year or go back to Brampton where he has a much more reliable base of support? What about local issues? He's going to be asked about that a great deal. He's flubbed so many questions on the big things, is he well-briefed on what's happening in a community he is not from? Finally, remember that there are all sorts of shenanigans that have happened from miscommunications (I'm being diplomatic with my choice of words) between constituencies and the federal party, with the local constituencies feeling burned (Paul Manley is one of many examples I could cite). I'm quite worried that news may break that the local constituency's wishes have been overridden by the national party to advance Singh's run.

There's one more important factor. Of course Singh is going to run hard on the pipeline issue. Only problem is, the NDP no longer has a monopoly on that vote. The Greens are very confident having won the balance of power in BC, so of course will be looking to expand their reach. This is a perfect chance to try, ahead of both the municipal elections later this year and the federal election next. You think they're going to pass that up? What if they run a really good campaign and either split the vote and allow the Liberals to win, or outright give the Greens their second ever elected federal seat?

It would have been far better to wait and run in Brampton. There's a reason that Jack and Alexa both waited to contest elections in their home communities. That is actually far more consistent with the idea of the NDP building itself up from the ground within the community, whereas with Singh it's more like parachuting someone in from On High. We knew when we voted for NDP leader that Singh didn't have a federal seat. Well, there are risks associated with that decision. We made that decision anyways, and we need to live with the consequences.

I was hoping he would have run a while ago, but let's live in the present. Assuming the by-election will be called Jagmeet Singh is the NDP candidate for Burnaby South. And maybe we will have a federal election before the by-election materializes.

I was actually quite surprised that the Greens are choosing not to contest the Burnaby by-election. The provincial party ran a "star" candidate - Joe Keithley - in the last provincial election in the northern half of the city and until recently Keithley was hotly contesting the mayoral election against the incumbent NDP-aligned mayor (Keithley dropped out just over a month ago to endorse another candidate).

This seemed like a perfect opportunity. I'd say either the Greens figured they just didn't have a shot against Jagmeet, or they are trying to be principled and not split the anti-pipeline vote. Or maybe both?

This seemed like a perfect opportunity. I'd say either the Greens figured they just didn't have a shot against Jagmeet, or they are trying to be principled and not split the anti-pipeline vote. Or maybe both?

To paraphrase a newspaper editorial from decades ago, written in response to another instance of a minor party ducking out of a by-election in order to avoid harming the chances of an ideologically similar major party...

If the Greens want the NDP to win, they should fold their party and join the NDP.

..not sure when singh will begin to campaign in bby but without a doubt he will encounter indigenous folk in the area. and without a doubt, once he does, the experience will radicalize him.

..i believe him capable of this from watching that video that circulated a while back. how he dealt with a heckler showed a sensitivity and humanity that he will not be able to ignore in the way notely or trudeau do.

Threowing a curve ball like this, EMay must be pissed with Canada's Oil King PM, which is understandable. BC NDPers must realize winning BC's government is only 50% of the battle. Ottawa counts for something as well.

By-elections are held when seats in the House of Commons become vacant – for example, when an MP resigns. When a seat in the House of Commons officially becomes vacant, the Speaker of the House must inform the Chief Electoral Officer immediately.

The date of the by-election is determined by the Governor in Council (the Governor General, acting on the advice of Cabinet). The by-election must be called between the 11th day and the 180th day after the receipt by the Chief Electoral Officer of the document sent by the Speaker of the House advising of the vacancy. The Canada Elections Act (section 57) specifies that the election period must last a minimum of 36 days; it does not specify a maximum.

Running in the Burnaby South by-election Jagmeet is probably running in the best place (read: where opposition is highest to Kinder Morgan / Canada's Oil King PM) at the best time (read: major news coverage just before general election). Jagmeet's NDP strategists are quite a bit sharper than they let on. Not too shabby!

I think Jagmeet will probably win Burnaby South, notwithstanding the narrow margin in 2015. It's going to take a fair bit of the shine off that victory, though, if the NDP loses Outremont in or around the same time.

OTTAWA – The NDP slammed the Liberals for breaking another promise to end the political harassment against charities, began by the Harper Conservatives. On Wednesday, the Liberal government chose to appeal a court ruling that exonerated these charities.

“Charities across Canada are doing incredible work in our communities, helping the less fortunate, but they've been the target of a political witch-hunt,” said NDP Finance Critic Peter Julian. “This decision by the Liberals is a betrayal of those who voted for change in 2015.”

On Wednesday, the Liberals revealed plans to support NDP MP Georgina Jolibois' Private Member's Bill to establish a National Indigenous People's Day. Yet, it is unclear if the Liberals plan to change the intention of Jolibois' bill after a government official told the media that they are considering amendments.

"Indigenous leaders have spent years fighting for a statutory holiday on June 21st, the summer solstice, which is a culturally important day for many Indigenous peoples," said Jolibois who is a Dene woman. "You'd think the government would want to talk with us about this but I haven't gotten a phone call from anyone."

Another NDP MP, Murray Rankin has been working with residential schools survivors to establish a national day to remember and honour those who were forced to attend residential schools in Canada, reflecting a recommendation by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Media reports show the government is now considering establishing a National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

"Quite frankly, I'm concerned that the Liberals will play politics with Indigenous history and culture," said Jolibois. "Instead of discarding the work that's already been done by Indigenous peoples, I urge the Liberals to work with us on this bill."

Things may be looking up for the NDP and they look like they may be on a roll here.

Even better if they can extend this to the federal election next year.

robbie_dee wrote:

I think Jagmeet will probably win Burnaby South, notwithstanding the narrow margin in 2015. It's going to take a fair bit of the shine off that victory, though, if the NDP loses Outremont in or around the same time.

My understanding, and this is based on fairly patchy recollections, is that the "leader's courtesy" was a generally honoured tradition in Quebec. And I'm on even sketchier ground when I say that I thought it was not usually observed outside that province.

The relevant case I recall most clearly was Don Getty losing his Edmonton constituency to the Liberal Percy Wickman in 1989, when the Liberals(and for that matter the NDP) were obviously not observing the courtesy. That was a general election, not a byelection, though logically, if you think there should be some sort of taboo against running against a party leader, it should apply to generals as well.

Personally, whatever it's revered history, I never really saw the rationale for the leader's courtesy. If a party can't get their leader into parliament, that's THEIR problem. Maybe there's a stronger case for it when the leader is also the premier or PM, but even then, Alberta(for example) did not come crashing down because Getty had to run again in Stettler.

I'm guessing the reason is really just self-interest. Nobody wants their own leader blocked from the House by other parties, so they agree not to do it to them. At least in some places.

Take a look at the last Burnaby South election results for the Greens which was less than 3%. That is the overriding reason why the Greens will not have a candidate in this by-election.

What is the party's cutoff point below which they won't run candidates in a riding? Their overall vote in 2015 was 3.45%, so basic math would dictate that there were at least a few ridings that were lower than that.

The NDP won Outremont in 2015 and has held it since 2007. That means, by definition, if the Party loses it in a by-election the Party is moving backwards. It's never a good look for a party leader to lose previously held seats under his or her tenure. Moreover, in this case Outremont, along with its adjacent incumbent NDP seats of Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga encompass a progressive bloc of urban Montreal that is at least partially represented by Quebec Solidaire provincially and should provide a solid base for a left-wing federal party like the NDP. It's ridiculous to suggest that the NDP losing Outremont would not be a big deal. It would be a huge deal and would imply an imminent threat to all of the rest of the Party's seats in Quebec next year.