Week 5 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

September 22, 2008

Each Monday morning will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 201 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. Non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Games of the Week: #9 Alabama 14 @ #6 Georgia 30
Georgia finally gets a chance to break out as it returns home after two tough road showdowns to face a top ten team in Alabama. It's strength versus strength as Georgia's rush defense, allowing just 1.99 yards per carry, faces Alabama's rush offense, which has gone for 5.92 yards per play on the season. The Crimson Tide has not seen a defense nearly this talented or sound yet on the season, so expect the Bulldogs to win that critical battle in the trenches. They will likely get a couple of big plays from Matthew Stafford and the passing game to lead Georgia to victory 91.5% of the time and by an average score of 30-14.

#45 Virginia Tech 20 @ #23 Nebraska 32
Is Bo Pelini's version of the Blackshirts for real? With back-to-back-to-back games against Virginia Tech, Missouri and Texas Tech, we will find out very soon. Despite being statistically dominated in its last two games, Virginia Tech has found a way to win both contests by a score of 20-17. In one of the few non-conference games of note for Week 5, watch for Joe Ganz and the Cornhuskers offense to light up a much worse than usual Hokies' pass defense (96th in the nation thus far giving up 7.6 yards-per-attempt) en route to a home victory 80.6% of the time and by an average score of 32-20. In front of 80,000+ fans at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, it is going to be very difficult for Virginia Tech to play as poorly as it has this year and still win.

#21 TCU 7 @ #2 Oklahoma 40
USC's numbers are too good to keep them out of the number one spot in our power rankings, but the gap between the Trojans and the #2 Sooners is a lot closer than many may think. Oklahoma may be the most talented team in the country. With eight of its nine remaining games against teams in our top 35 (not to mention a possible Big 12 Championship game versus a team like #4 Missouri), the Sooners will have ample opportunity to prove that fact this season. TCU is a very good team with a defense that is among the top ten or so in the nation. Oklahoma could probably care less. The Sooners have hung 50+ points in all of their games, including when Sam Bradford threw a career-high two interceptions and the team clearly did not play its best game when it hosted a talented Cincinnati Bearcats squad that may have four or five 2009 NFL draft choices on defense. And we have not even discussed Oklahoma's defense... TCU is good enough to keep OU below 50. How about 40? The Sooners win this game 95% of the time and by an average score of 40-7.

Week 5 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

Arkansas @ Texas

95

17-35

Rhode Island @ Boston College

95

4-37

Morgan State @ Rutgers

95

6-38

Illinois @ Penn State

95

9-36

TCU @ Oklahoma

95

7-40

Central Arkansas @ Tulsa

95

5-51

Kent St. @ Ball State

95

13-43

Virginia Military @ Ohio

95

5-36

Weber State @ Utah

95

3-43

Mississippi @ Florida

95

7-39

Mississippi State @ LSU

95

4-50

Western Kentucky @ Kentucky

95

7-28

SMU @ Tulane

95

8-29

Army @ Texas A&M

95

8-30

Fla. Int. @ Toledo

95

9-33

Colorado St. @ California

94

13-33

UAB @ S. Carolina

93.5

9-29

Houston @ East Carolina

93

16-32

Alabama @ Georgia

91.5

14-30

Troy @ Oklahoma State

90.5

16-36

Virginia @ Duke

89.1

10-24

North Texas @ Rice

89.1

14-26

Minn. @ Ohio State

88.6

19-32

LA-Laf @ Kansas State

87.6

22-37

Navy @ WF

84.1

21-33

Nevada @ UNLV

82.6

18-30

Virginia Tech @ Nebraska

80.6

20-32

Tennessee @ Auburn

80.6

11-22

Northwestern @ Iowa

76.6

12-23

Maryland @ Clemson

75.6

23-32

Idaho @ San Diego State

74.6

11-20

UCF @ UTEP

72.1

12-20

Marshall @ W. Virginia

59.2

22-26

Stanford @ Washington

58.7

14-19

North Carolina @ Miami (FL)

58.2

22-27

Purdue @ Notre Dame

57.7

18-22

Colorado @ Florida State

57.2

19-22

Connecticut @ Louisville

56.7

21-23

Bowling Green @ Wyoming

48.3

15-12

Buffalo @ C. Michigan

47.3

26-21

New Mexico @ New Mexico State

38.3

23-17

Michigan State @ Indiana

31.3

27-16

Cincinnati @ Akron

30.3

34-24

San Jose State @ Hawaii

26.9

19-9

Northern Illinois @ E. Michigan

12.9

32-18

W. Michigan @ Temple

6.5

35-16

Oregon @ Washington St.

5.5

36-13

Arkansas St. @ Memphis

5

39-18

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse

5

34-9

South Florida @ NC St.

5

39-12

Wisconsin @ Michigan

5

33-9

Fresno State @ UCLA

5

39-13

USC @ Oregon State

5

46-8

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