Cubs vs. Giants MLB Pick – August 7th

We broke our losing skid last night on the strength of the Dodgers 8-0 victory over the New York Mets, which easily cashed the money line play as well. The Dodgers have now ripped off 44 wins in their last 51 games to keep their Greatest Ever-type streak rumbling in full effect. Even more scary than another Dodgers’ sweep and their 12th win in 13 games? The fact that Kershaw hasn’t even been around for the magic as he is still recovering from injury. Hyun-Jin Ryu was dominant last night, allowing just a single hit over seven scoreless innings and striking out eight batters. New addition Tony Cingrani pitched a perfect 8th and Kenley Jansen lowered his ERA to 1.30 with a flawless 9th. With the performances from Ryu and Darvish this weekend, the scariest team in the Majors just got even MORE frightening…

Elsewhere, the Cubs and Brewers both lost to keep the only competitive division in the National League virtually knotted, while the Nationals took an impressive weekend series from the aforementioned Cubbies to remain solidly second in the NL hierarchy. The schedule highlights on today’s slim schedule (mainly a NL travel/rest day) are Milwaukee and Brent Sutter heading to face Ervin Santana and the Twins in a fun inter-league matchup and Carlos Martinez trying to keep the Cardinals within shouting distance of the Cubs/Brewers in a rematch of the 2015 World Series in Kansas City.

Let’s see if we can use yesterday as the springboard to a big week.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Chicago Cubs -175 at San Francisco Giants +166 (Total: 8)

Jake Arrieta (10-8, 3.88 ERA) vs. Matt Moore (3-11, 5.80 ERA)

The disaster that is the 2017 San Francisco Giants stumbles on tonight with one of the foremost symbols of the carnage on the mound, Matt Moore. Moore enters not just with one of the worst records in the National League, but also an ERA nearing six and a WHIP of 1.60. Even more troubling is his batting average against of .293. Basically, the entire league is an All Star when Matt Moore is on the mound this season. It is a pretty precipitous fall from grace for one of the league’s better pitchers in the early 2010’s.

Opposing him is another big name pitcher who has seen some better days in the not-so-distant rear view mirror. Jake Arrieta’s fall hasn’t been as sharp, but given the lofty heights he reached just two years ago, there were some legitimate concerns mounting. Arrieta enters with an ERA pushing four but there is reason to be very optimistic for Cubs fans. In his last six starts, only one wasn’t a quality outing and even that wasn’t terrible (3 ER in 5.2 innings). Over that span he has allowed just 9 runs in 39 innings, good for an ERA right around 2.00 (2.08 to be exact). Even better, despite some early season issues, his WHIP is still just 1.20, which has him flirting with Top Ten in the league.

Arrieta has been excellent lately at missing bats as well, fanning 21 batters in his last three starts against just 4 walks.

The Cubs have a big starting pitching edge tonight and an obvious edge in the offensive category against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. They are a perfectly fine bet at -175, but an even better value on the runline at even money. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games while the Giants are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 at home.

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