TORONTO — The circumstances are different. But for the third straight year, Nazem Kadri will not start the regular season with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

We would like to say it is because the 20-year-old sprained his medial collateral ligament in a game against the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday and will be out for at least two weeks. But we are not sure that Kadri would have made the team had he been healthy.

If anything, his injury just makes the decision easier for the coaching staff.

It means the Leafs can rightfully reward Matt Frattin with a spot on the team without having to explain why the team’s seventh-overall selection in 2009 is still not NHL-ready. Because that is what it boils down to: Frattin is ready and Kadri still needs time to develop.

This should, however, not be a surprise.

Prior to training camp, Leafs general manager Brian Burke and head coach Ron Wilson made it clear that if Kadri wanted a spot on the third line, he was going to have to earn it by performing better than fellow prospects Frattin and Joe Colborne.

Most thought it was an attempt to light a fire under a youngster who appeared to have a false sense of entitlement as a former first-round draft pick.

But more and more, it appears that there are serious concerns with whether the youngster is capable of getting the job done.

At his first training camp in 2009, an 18-year-old Kadri was not physically mature enough to play in the NHL. The following year, it was the mental side of his game that lacked maturity. This time around, he was simply not good enough.

In five exhibition games, Frattin has two goals, three assists and a plus-4 rating; Kadri has no goals, two assists and a plus-1 rating.

“I don’t know what our decision was going to be,” Wilson said Thursday. “I tend to procrastinate right up until the last minute. Why? Because these situations, where injuries pop up, seem to always occur. There’s no point in speculating a week into training camp whether a guy’s going to be on your team or not. You let them battle right to the wire. It’s funny. It always seems to work itself out.”

Wilson might not have known what his final decision was going to be, but it was pretty clear whom he was pulling for.

Why else would he have started Kadri on the third line with Tyler Bozak and Colby Armstrong? Why else would the trio have coincidentally been skating together during informal scrimmages in August? Why else was Frattin relegated to playing with a mixed bag of fourth-liners and training camp castaways?

Kadri, who had played in 29 games for the Leafs last season, was supposed to be the guy. Instead, he will watch as Frattin begins the season playing with Bozak and Armstrong.

What happens when Kadri recovers in two to four weeks is unclear. The team still believes he has the tools to become a top-six forward. But he is still learning how to be a complete player. He still takes unnecessary risks and is a liability in tight games.

Frattin’s ceiling as an offensive threat might not be as high. But the 23-year-old hits and blocks shots. And, according to Wilson, he has more “all-around qualities” that are better suited for a third-line role.

“I feel like I’ve done a pretty good job,” said Frattin, who made his NHL debut in the final game last season. “But I have a lot of expectations for myself. I feel that I’m not playing up to my full potential like I know I can.”

Chances are both Frattin and Kadri will see time together at some point this season. They were linemates in that final game last season. And despite the competition for a roster spot, they have also become off-ice friends, with Kadri driving Frattin home on the night of the injury.

“I saw that he was limping, but I didn’t think it was going to be this bad,” Frattin said. “I feel bad for him. But the biggest thing is to show what I’ve got.”

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