A good gamble

Posted by | June 07, 2006 at 10:58 AM

By now many of you have probably read about the transgressions of Kyle Drabek, the Phillies' first-round draft pick in Tuesday's MLB First-Year Player Draft. He cracked up his car in a one-vehicle accident. He was charged with public intoxication in January 2005, a charge that was later dropped.

My opinion on the pick: the Phillies took a good gamble in selecting Drabek, who may have been the most talented high school player available in the draft.

For starters, what 18-year-old kid doesn't do some things he or she shouldn't? Kids make mistakes. Heck, adults make mistakes. Drabek has time to mature. Repeat: he's 18.

The Phillies have also done a decent job when taking high school pitchers in the first round. Their 1999 first-round pick is now the ace of their staff (Brett Myers). Their 2002 first-round pick may be their next best starter (Cole Hamels). Their 2001 first-round pick, Gavin Floyd, still hasn't panned out, but he's just 23 and has at least reached the majors.

All reports indicate Drabek has big-time stuff. His fastball is mid-to-high 90s, and Baseball America rated his curveball the best breaking pitch of any high school player available in this year's draft. The Phillies like high-risk, high-reward guys, and Drabek seems to fit that mold.

I'm not saying I think Drabek will become a Cy Young winner like his dad, Doug. I'm saying the Phillies made a decent pick for someone that could be very good. There are fewer sure things in the MLB Draft than in the NBA or NFL drafts. Why not aim high?