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Friday, December 14, 2012

Innovation Changes the Oregon Economy

Every other year, the Oregon Employment Department forecasts industry
and occupational employment 10 years into the future. Our current
forecast looks forward to the year 2020 based on the economy of 2010.
Over that period of time every major industry is forecast to grow from
the depths of the severe recession of late 2007 to mid-2009.However,
two key industries, construction and manufacturing, are not forecast to
fully recover all the jobs they lost in the Great Recession. Today,
manufacturing represents about 10 percent of all jobs in Oregon, down
from 15 percent 20 years ago.

A few minor industries are forecast
to continue to decline in this decade. Among them: the postal service,
paper manufacturing, newspaper and book publishers, and
telecommunications. Similarly, very little growth is projected for book
and music stores Along with the weak recovery forecasted for the construction and
manufacturing industries, most occupations in those businesses are not
expected to recover all the jobs lost at the end of the last decade. For
example, in 2008 there were 5,550 welders in Oregon. The forecast for
2020 predicts 5,215 welders. In 2008, there were 9,323 production
assemblers. The forecast is for 7,703 in 2020. In fact, there are
forecast to be a total of 122,556 people working in all
production-related occupations in 2020, down 2 percent from 2008.Though
many manufacturing and construction jobs are expected to recover most,
but not all, of the positions lost in the Great Recession, certain
occupations are forecast to continue to shrink even as the Oregon
economy recovers. The 2020 forecast predicts a 10 percent decline in the
number of news reporters, a 20 percent decline in postal workers and a 3
percent decline in printing press operators.The Internet is the common force pressuring businesses in these diverse
industries. Though the trend
toward digital telecommunication is strong, more traditional businesses
may hold their own or slim down, but are unlikely to disappear.This piece was published in the December issue of Oregon Labor Trends. You can find more information in the full article , written by Workforce Analyst Christian Kaylor.

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