A losing pitcher runs up against one of the best lineups in the league on Thursday night in Houston. Our MLB handicapper likes the value presented in the moneyline on the road team with the matchup.

34-year old Ricky Nolasco is having the worst season of his career, and the long ball has bit him all year long. He’s carrying a 17.8% HR/FB rate coming into this game, and has given up a home run in 22 of his 29 starts on the season. Nolasco has a 5.30 FIP on the year and has struggled against righties, giving up a robust .304 BAA over 78.2 innings pitched. His batted ball statistics tell a story as well, as Nolasco has given up both the highest hard hit and pull rates of his career this year. Those high numbers combined equal dingers.

Other than an elevated walk rate, Brad Peacock has been excellent this season. He has a career high 11.74 K/9 rate and superb 6.8% HR/FB rate that keeps him from making the big mistakes. On the road, Peacock has been better than at home putting up a .223 BAA, 1.16 WHIP, and 2.43 FIP. His walk rate has improved over the second half of the season as well, with a 2.36 BB/9 mark. I’ll take the better pitcher on the road here to give me some value on the moneyline, taking Houston at -131 at 5Dimes as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

A trend our MLB handicapper picked up two weeks ago is slated to reverse itself here, as the Minnesota Twins take on the Toronto Blue Jays at home.

With Toronto out of the AL Wild Card, they begin their latest road trip in Minnesota with Brett Anderson on the mound. Anderson has had his career interrupted a lot of times by injury, and the ground ball specialist hasn’t been so good at that of late. His HR/FB rate is 16.7% over limited action this year and his ground ball rate is only 48.5%. Anderson’s line drive rate is an unfortunate 29.4%, however.

Jose Berrios of the Twins will be glad to be home where he has been dominant this season. Over 60.1 innings pitched at home Berrios has an excellent .190 BAA and 63/12 K/BB rate. He also has an elite 0.88 WHIP and 2.70 FIP at home this season. The last two starts coming off of road games Berrios jumped 2mph for his average fastball, and I expect more of the same here. With him on the mound and the Twins needing this game and Toronto not so much, I’ll take the Twins on the run line at plus odds as one of my Thursday MLB selections.