Economic Conditions and Trends

News about Economic Conditions and Trends, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times.

Chronology of Coverage

Mar. 30, 2015

Editorial examines implications of dollar's steady rise against foreign currencies, particularly euro and Japanese yen; contends while trend has number of advantages for exporting nations and global economy, it is unlikely to be sufficient to stimulate growth in struggling countries like Greece; says trend shows how world continues to rely too heavily on United States, which is itself still in state of recovery. MORE

Mar. 20, 2015

David Brooks Op-Ed column contends global political climate becomes more focused on power and security, rather than advancing public good, in time of worldwide economic instability, violence and declining faith in progress; says in such climates progressive political realignments are unlikely, while nationalistic and extremist movements and tough politicians rise; holds conditions playing out globally will affect 2016 American elections. MORE

Mar. 12, 2015

Data released about China's industrial production shows slowest pace of increase since 2008, confirming slowdown in country's manufacturing, real estate, and local government infrastructure spending, all traditional drivers of growth; as China shifts its economy toward consumer spending, traditional strengths have turned into liabilities that authorities may not be prepared to address. MORE

Feb. 10, 2015

Lingering slump in global financial markets could offer investors advantages in sectors like energy stocks, junk bonds, and emerging markets, but only if global economy avoids plummeting into the abyss. MORE

Feb. 9, 2015

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column contends so-called 'deleveraging,' while healthy at individual or corporate level, is a foolhardy objective for national economies; holds false notions concerning debt at the policy level have led to misinformed austerity measures that have hobbled global economic recovery, especially in Europe. MORE

Feb. 5, 2015

People's Bank of China decreases required reserve ratio for commercial banks by half percentage point; move, which will stimulate growth in country's economy by giving institutions more leeway for lending, us particularly helpful for real estate and industry; decision dovetails with actions by other central banks around the world that have tried to stimulate domestic growth amid uncertainty about state of global economy. MORE

Jan. 29, 2015

Steven Rattner Op-Ed article contends debate over how to revitalize Europe's economy too often mistakenly centers on choices of stimulus or austerity; states focus needs to be on how to be more competitive in world markets, which can only happen through variety of policy changes, including regulatory reforms and controlling taxes. MORE

Jan. 11, 2015

The Upshot; Hall of Mirrors, new book by economic historian Barry Eichengreen, presents alternate narrative of the government's handling of the 2008 economic crisis; suggests that global leaders repeated many of the mistakes made in the 1930s by their Depression-era counterparts, leading to slow recovery that is still a significant problem seven years later. MORE

Jan. 6, 2015

Jan. 2, 2015

The Upshot; forces that will shape global economy in 2015 may best be understood by examination of the biggest global market moves that took place in 2014, including epic collapse in oil prices and growing strength of the American dollar. MORE

Jan. 2, 2015

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column argues that global economic trends in which wages of working classes of advanced nations are shrinking as incomes of global elite are expanding are not being addressed by world leaders; warns lack of champion for working classes is resulting in unsavory political leaders rising to prominence, such as nationalist, anti-immigrant parties in Europe. MORE

Dec. 30, 2014

South America Memo; boom in prices for commodities like oil, minerals and crops has ended in South America, but there is evidence that countries including Brazil, Peru and Venezuela are in better position to avoid a bust; measure of external debt to foreign reserves is at low in region. MORE

Dec. 29, 2014

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column notes economies in United States and Great Britain have begun to grow after loosening of austerity policies; rejects arguments by some fiscal conservatives that economies are bouncing back because of cutbacks; argues growth is instead due to cessation of such policies; holds economic picture looks brighter for 2015, particularly if austerity is kept to minimum. MORE

Dec. 21, 2014

The Upshot; 2 percent annual inflation target, first established by New Zeland in 1989 and widely emulated by the rest of the world ever since, is coming under criticism by some economists; skeptics argue that figure leaves central banks with too little flexibility to adequately fight deep economic malaise, and could even be part of the reason that global economic recovery has been so slow. MORE

Dec. 17, 2014

Eduardo Porter Economic Scene column holds slowdown in China's economy has had devastating impact on Latin American countries that have become economically dependent on Chinese demand for their raw materials; warns era of Latin American prosperity that began in 1970s is now over and regional leaders must form new strategies toward long-term growth beyond simple sale of resources to other countries. MORE

Dec. 16, 2014

The precipitous fall in the Russian ruble has already rattled investors. Concerns are mounting that bond troubles of big energy companies in emerging markets will unleash a new wave of market contagion. MORE

Dec. 12, 2014

Floyd Norris High & Low Finance column, part one of its two-part finale, observes that on balance the world has weathered financial crisis after crisis over last several decades; attempts to evaluate those crises and how learning wrong lessons from them resulted in repercussions years later. MORE

Dec. 10, 2014

Eduardo Porter Economic Scene column observes that Brazil and other Latin American countries are prioritizing development over plans to cut carbon emissions in light of economic slowdown; notes that tension is also evident in Peru, which is currently hosting international negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions. MORE

Dec. 7, 2014

News analysis; gold has quietly re-emerged as economic instrument and centerpiece of handful of intiatives in Europe, Asia and the Middle East; experts are conflicted about why gold has made a mini-comeback, with some saying it is sign that runaway inflation is approaching whereas others see it as symbolic way for central banks and governments to make show of strength in uncertain economic times. MORE

Nov. 16, 2014

Editorial cautions that drop in commodity prices is a warning about global economy; notes that while decline can partly be explained by changes taking place in China, it is also due to stagnation in Japan and in much of Europe; contends drop in prices shows that economic recovery is stalling in many countries. MORE

Nov. 13, 2014

Pres Obama will arrive at international economic meeting in Australia hoping to press European and Asian leaders to get their economies moving again and perhaps buoy his own foundering presidency; allies may be less than open to message if they question his ability to deliver his own promises in a reordered Washington. MORE

Nov. 9, 2014

The Upshot; Tyler Cowen Economic View column calls attention to neglected field of population economics; notes that some experts in field have argued that global population is unlikely to peak any time soon, and that developed countries in the West and in East Asia will have too few young people for prosperous economies; argues that developed nations that can absorb new immigrants at modest cost could have bright futures, while those with inflexible notions of national identity will suffer. MORE

Oct. 31, 2014

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column acknowledges that while scathing criticisms of Japanese economic policy over past two decades are not exactly wrong, they present uncomfortable comparison to the slump United States and Western Europe find themselves in, which is actually worse; holds factors like American conservatives blocking efforts to fight unemployment are to blame, but there will be new lessons the West needs to be learning. MORE

Oct. 21, 2014

Assessing Chinese economy and predicting its prospects can be difficult, given mixed signals in some data; retail sales growth seems to be slowing, but figures do not reflect online sales; major indicators are declining, but overall economy is chugging along. MORE

Oct. 19, 2014

The Upshot; Robert J Shiller Economic View column examines whether global economy is entering 'secular stagnation,' period of slow growth that can last for generations; notes that whether or not diagnosis is accurate, idea itself can hurt stock prices. MORE

Oct. 17, 2014

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column contends financial turmoil, particularly in Europe, seems to suggest that markets are asking for governments to mitigate economic pain, despite fact that many people have asserted the opposite; warns that when people talk about what markets demand, usually they are trying to bully people into doing what they themselves want. MORE

Oct. 13, 2014

The topic everyone on Wall Street is discussing urgently but quietly isn’t the volatile stock market. It is Ebola. MORE

Oct. 13, 2014

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column contends main reason world economy again seems to be on verge of stumbling is that policymakers have failed to provide debt relief out of excess of virtue; underscores difficulty of getting either policy elite or public to understand that sometimes debt relief is in everyone's interest. MORE

Oct. 11, 2014

Whipsaw week on Wall Street causes dramatic swings in global markets for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities like oil; week is reminder that prices for stocks and wide range of other assets are at high end of their historical levels, relative to fundamentals, and that there are signs that global economy's growth is stalling. MORE

Oct. 10, 2014

Editorial laments that many finance ministers and central bankers from around the world are unwilling or ill prepared to respond to a world economy on verge of recession; outlines steps that government and central banks could take to avoid another recession, such as increasing government spending on public investments. MORE

Oct. 8, 2014

International Monetary Fund, showing heightened concern over slowing world economy, says cash-rich countries like Germany need to step up large public investments to help keep the flagging global recovery on track. MORE

Sep. 21, 2014

The Upshot; near success of Scotland's independence bid is only the latest expression of a widespread dissatisfaction with the established political and economic order in the West; voters in several nations, and across political lines, seem fed up with a global elite whose outsize wealth has failed to translate into general prosperity. MORE

Sep. 20, 2014

Editorial cites report by World Bank, United Nations and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development showing that too few jobs are being created worldwide and calling for government intervention to revitalize economies; notes governments in grip of poisoned politics and misguided ideology are unlikely to take necessary actions; warns failure to do so is likely to result in lower living standards and widening inequality worldwide. MORE

Sep. 10, 2014

Central bankers have seen signs of market exuberance, but the Federal Reserve has been slow to pop the bubbles. MORE

Sep. 6, 2014

Floyd Norris Off The Charts column holds that a big part of Europe's inflation problem and economic malaise is that consumer prices and labor costs among Germany and other eurozone countries are out of balance. MORE

Sep. 5, 2014

Paul Krugman Op-Ed column posits that series of new steps announced by European Central Bank to boost Europe's economy, while welcome, may have come too late; holds that action by Federal Reserve helped United States economy steer clear of the kind of trap facing Europe, but suggests that more could be done. MORE

Sep. 5, 2014

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi unveils several new aggressive measures to revive the Continent's moribund economy; takes first steps toward large-scale asset purchases, milder version of quantitative easing used by Federal Reserve in United States; moves reflect gloomy state of European economy that remains mired in cycle of inflation and stagnant growth. MORE

Aug. 25, 2014

News analysis; leaders of world's major central banks make clear at economic policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo, that they are focused on raising employment and wages; pursuit of lower inflation has been replaced by conviction that inflation is too low for the good of the world economy. MORE

Aug. 23, 2014

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi says European governments need to shift focus on austerity to 'more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies;' Draghi's change in tone reflects growing concern that economic growth is slowing in many countries within euro zone and existing efforts have proved insufficient to spark faster growth. MORE

Aug. 16, 2014

Europe's economic recovery has been marked by both success and setbacks; Britain shows healthy gains while eurozone faces prospect of recession; much of Europe's economy, including Britain, remains shaky. MORE

Aug. 10, 2014

Binyamin Appelbaum It's the Economy column examines validity of oft-repeated assertion that big sporting events like the Olympic Games provide economic boon to host countries; contends there is strikingly little evidence that such events increase tourism or draw new investment. MORE

Jul. 30, 2014

Thomas L Friedman Op-Ed column holds that Madagascar exemplifies how combination of global pressures is stressing out developed countries and helping to destabilize poor countries; contends Madagascar's situation underscores how helping poor nations has to start by preserving their ecosystems, which are vital for sustaining their peoples and attracting tourism. MORE

Jul. 25, 2014

United Nations report says improvements in life spans, education and incomes are slowing because of natural disasters, misguided government policies and worsening inequality. MORE

Jul. 25, 2014

International Monetary Fund lowers its growth forecast for 2014 to 3.4 percent, down from April forecast of 3.7 percent. MORE

Jul. 20, 2014

Tyler Cowen Economic View column; The Upshot; income gap has become more acute within most individual nations, yet income inequality has been shrinking globally for most of the last 20 years; egalitarians should be optimistic about recent history, realizing that capitalism and economic growth are greatest and most effective equalizers world has ever known. MORE

Jul. 19, 2014

Floyd Norris Off the Charts column; industrial production in United States, India and China has recovered from Great Recession, but many other advanced countries worldwide continue to struggle. MORE

Jul. 13, 2014

Filipe Campante and David Yanagizawa-Drott Gray Matter column presents question of whether religion, specifically practice of religious rituals, impacts economic growth; describes study examining effect of holy month of Ramadan on economics; says study suggests that Ramadan depresses economic activity, in effect making people poorer, but that event also makes them happier. MORE