But as indie film execs are getting ready for the market, which runs concurrently with the Berlin Intl. Film Festival from Feb. 11 to 21, nobody expects to see a bonanza of star-laden English-language vehicles for sale.

“There likely won’t be a crop of bigger new movies,” says IM Global’s Stuart Ford. “There will be a few. But I don’t think we’ll see a sudden boom.”

Blame the market forces within the international indie biz. In 2012 multiple sales companies launched as institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals moved into independent film finance — and needed sales agents to match equity with pre-sales. But now the international sales sector appears ready for a wave of consolidation.

Last month, eOne folded its international sales operation into Sierra/Affinity, already a joint sales venture of Sierra Pictures, OddLot Entertainment and Bold Films.

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“The eOne-Sierra/Affinity deal is just the start,” says Martin Moszkowicz of Germany’s Constantin. “I expect at least another dozen or two dozen sales companies to either merge or disappear over the next two to three years.”

On top of the threat of more consolidation, the burgeoning fortunes of TV are also affecting film. “There is a talent drain on mid- and lower-budget movies, because so many actors and directors are busy doing TV shows,” Moszkowicz says.

Additionally, Ivan Barreto Boeing, director of international acquisitions at Imagem Filmes, notes that studios have become “increasingly aggressive in acquiring independent blockbusters.”

Exhibit A: Sony Pictures announced Jan. 25 that it had grabbed international rights to one of the biggest new market titles, Alcon Entertainment’s “Blade Runner” sequel.

In foreign markets, indies are being squeezed by both Hollywood juggernauts and local blockbusters. Hits such as Spain’s “Spanish Affair 2” ($37.5 million through Jan. 17 ) and Italy’s “Quo Vado?” ($58.1 million through Jan. 13) will beat “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” in those countries. Constantin’s “Fack ju Goethe 2” sold more tickets than “Star Wars” in Germany.

“If the international box office is going up, this is entirely due to the success of local productions, like ‘Fack ju Goethe 2’ (pictured above) in Germany,” says Mister Smith Entertainment’s David Garrett. “They have admissions equivalent to at least eight successful American movies at 1 million admissions each.”

As international distributors back away from all but big, must-have movies and arthouse bestsellers, streaming services Netflix and Amazon have thrown traditional business models a curve ball.

“More and more pictures get sold to Netflix as original movies, which might work out financially these days, because it is starting to really pay top dollar,” Moszkowicz says. “But international distributors need huge P&A dollars behind their films’ U.S. (theatrical) releases in order to drive their domestic opening in their own territory.”

Protagonist’s Mike Goodridge says the middle man is being squeezed out. “Everyone’s looking for different revenue streams,” he says.

But sales are still to be had for the right product. IM Global will screen first footage of Martin Scorsese’s “Silence” with Liam Neeson and “The Circle” with Tom Hanks. FilmNation is teaming with J.C. Chandor to remake German thriller “The Robber”; Luc Besson’s EuropaCorp has attached Thomas Vinterberg to direct submarine action tragedy “Kursk”; and Rob Cohen is helming disaster movie “Category 5” for Foresight Unlimited.

Diversification is also being explored, with sales companies moving more into production. Sierra/Affinity will use eOne equity to build its production slate.

Protagonist is launching a development funding division to control in-house productions, per Goodridge.

Imagem is among the distributors plowing money into local productions. “Five years ago, we released 40 titles a year, three-quarters (of them) independent titles,” Boeing says. “In 2016, we will release as many local productions as international titles.”

Category 5
Director: Rob Cohen
Producers: Karen Baldwin, Michael Tadross Jr., and Danny Roth
Logline: Hackers infiltrate a U.S. Mint facility in a small coastal town to steal millions in cash just as a Category 5 hurricane is about to strike.
Intl. sales: Foresight Unlimited