How can you pick the tops and bottoms of markets?

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You can't. One of the great investors of the past, Bernard Baruch (1870 - 1965) always used to say that the secret was 'selling too soon'. That said, the top of a market always features wild optimism, with hardly a Jeremiah to be found. The bottom of the market features everyone pretty gloomy, with hardly anyone expecting a turn for the better. The low point of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the depression was 8 July 1932, but that passed without a comment by anyone - on thin trade the benchmark fell 1.4% to close at 41.22 points. Exactly a year later it was 105.15 points.

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