National Election Pool General Election Exit Polls, 2006 (ICPSR 4684)

This data collection consists of election data collected
through questionnaires completed by voters as they left their polling
places on election day, November 7, 2006, as well as through
pre-election telephone interviews conducted between October 27, 2006
and November 5, 2006, in states with large populations of absentee and
early voters. Part 1 contains national data collected from a sample of
250 polling locations representing all 50 states. Parts 2-33 contain
data collected from individual state surveys conducted in 32 states
including Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii,
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas,
Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and
Wyoming. Both the national and state surveys asked a series of
questions about electoral choices in the relevant gubernatorial,
senatorial, and congressional elections, how long prior to the
election voters decided on their candidate, the factors that
influenced their choice, whether they supported state-specific
proposals such as raising the minimum wage and banning same-sex
marriage, and how confident they were that votes in their state would
be counted accurately. Views were sought on the war in Iraq, illegal
immigration, the economy, the Democratic and Republican parties, and
whether respondents approved of the way President George W. Bush was
handling the presidency. Other questions addressed respondents'
financial situation, for whom they voted in the 2004 presidential
election, and whether they identified themselves as born-again or
evangelical Christians. In addition, national sample respondents gave
their opinions on the direction of the country, the Bush
Administration, the United States Congress, and whether life would be
better for the next generation of Americans, while individual state
respondents gave their opinions of local politicians. Demographic
variables include age, sex, race, ethnicity, education level,
household income, marital status, sexual orientation, labor union
membership, religious affiliation, frequency of religious attendance,
political party affiliation, political philosophy, and whether
children lived in the household.

This data collection consists of election data collected
through questionnaires completed by voters as they left their polling
places on election day, November 7, 2006, as well as through
pre-election telephone interviews conducted between October 27, 2006
and November 5, 2006, in states with large populations of absentee and
early voters. Part 1 contains national data collected from a sample of
250 polling locations representing all 50 states. Parts 2-33 contain
data collected from individual state surveys conducted in 32 states
including Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii,
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas,
Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and
Wyoming. Both the national and state surveys asked a series of
questions about electoral choices in the relevant gubernatorial,
senatorial, and congressional elections, how long prior to the
election voters decided on their candidate, the factors that
influenced their choice, whether they supported state-specific
proposals such as raising the minimum wage and banning same-sex
marriage, and how confident they were that votes in their state would
be counted accurately. Views were sought on the war in Iraq, illegal
immigration, the economy, the Democratic and Republican parties, and
whether respondents approved of the way President George W. Bush was
handling the presidency. Other questions addressed respondents'
financial situation, for whom they voted in the 2004 presidential
election, and whether they identified themselves as born-again or
evangelical Christians. In addition, national sample respondents gave
their opinions on the direction of the country, the Bush
Administration, the United States Congress, and whether life would be
better for the next generation of Americans, while individual state
respondents gave their opinions of local politicians. Demographic
variables include age, sex, race, ethnicity, education level,
household income, marital status, sexual orientation, labor union
membership, religious affiliation, frequency of religious attendance,
political party affiliation, political philosophy, and whether
children lived in the household.

The data available for download are not weighted
and users will need to weight the data prior to analysis. Unweighted
tabulations will be seriously misleading and should not be used.

Additional information about sampling, interviewing, and sampling
error may be found in the codebook.

The formats of several
variables were adjusted to fit the width of the values present in
these variables.

In 2006, as in previous midterm elections,
statewide exit polls were not conducted in every state. Therefore, a
combined data file representing the results from all 50 states and the
District of Columbia similar to the one generated in 2004 was not able
to be produced.

Precincts from all 50 states were eligible to be
selected in the national sample, but through the random selection
process, four states (Hawaii, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) did
not come up with a precinct in the final sample.

Universe:
Voters casting a ballot in the 2006 United States general
election.

Data Type(s):
event/transaction data,
survey data

Data Collection Notes:

The data available for download are not weighted
and users will need to weight the data prior to analysis. Unweighted
tabulations will be seriously misleading and should not be used.

Additional information about sampling, interviewing, and sampling
error may be found in the codebook.

The formats of several
variables were adjusted to fit the width of the values present in
these variables.

In 2006, as in previous midterm elections,
statewide exit polls were not conducted in every state. Therefore, a
combined data file representing the results from all 50 states and the
District of Columbia similar to the one generated in 2004 was not able
to be produced.

Precincts from all 50 states were eligible to be
selected in the national sample, but through the random selection
process, four states (Hawaii, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) did
not come up with a precinct in the final sample.

The CASEID
variable was created for use with online analysis.

Methodology

Sample:
The statewide exit poll samples were selected in two
stages. First, a probability sample of voting precincts within each
state was selected that represented the different geographic areas
across the state and the vote by party. Precincts were selected with a
probability proportionate to the number of voters in each precinct,
with the exception of precincts with large minority populations, which
were sampled at a higher rate that other precincts in some states.
Second, within each precinct, voters were sampled systematically
throughout the voting day at a rate that gave all voters in a precinct
the same chance of being interviewed. The national sample was formed
from a subsample of exit poll precincts in each of the 32 states that
conducted state surveys, as well as from a sample of precincts in the
18 states without state surveys. In states with large populations of
absentee and early voters, pre-election telephone interviews were
conducted of people who said they had either already voted by mail
using an absentee ballot or had voted in person at an early voting
location. Households in all telephone polls were selected using
random-digit dialing (RDD). On election day, the results from the
absentee/early voter telephone surveys were combined with the data
from the exit polls to ensure that those two groups were represented
in the data in the same proportion as in the actual vote totals.

Time Method:
Longitudinal: Trend / Repeated Cross-section

Weight:
The data contain a weight variable (WGT) that should be
applied in all analyses. Unweighted tabulations will be seriously
misleading and should not be used. The exit poll results are weighted
to reflect the complexity of the sampling design and take into account
the different probabilities of selecting a precinct and of selecting a
voter within each precinct. For example, minority precincts that were
selected at a higher rate received a smaller weight than other
precincts of the same size. An adjustment was made for voters who were
missed or refused to be interviewed, which was based on their observed
age, race, and sex. Respondents were also weighted based upon the size
and distribution of the final tabulated vote within geographic regions
of the state or the nation. The telephone survey results were weighted
before being combined with the exit poll data to reflect the
probabilities of selection and to reflect demographic characteristics
in that state. The demographic weighting was based on all respondents
18 years of age or older selected in the sample regardless of whether
they voted absentee/early or not.

Mode of Data Collection:
on-site questionnaire,
telephone interview

Extent of Processing: ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of
disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major
statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to
these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: