It does feel like it’s 1.01 or bust. At the same time, I think people who own 1.02 know they hold a lot of power since 1.01 is unattainable without a serious overpay. Owners of 1.02 are holding out hope that they might get 85-90% of that.

Unfortunately 2018 draft picks seem to be valued higher than or equal to last year’s class. I’ve seen people trading top 25-30 players for the 4th or 5th pick, which seems nuts to me. Barkley hype and 2017 success have made this year’s picks wayyyyy overvalued in my opinion. If you can get the 1.02 at a reasonable price, then do it...but I bet you’ll have to pay more than you’d like.

The top 6 RB's in this class all have RB1 potential with the right teams and schemes. So, it doesn't surprise me that top 5 or 6 picks are costing people quite a bit. Probably costing too much based on last year's RB explosion. But, these guys are good players.

As for Guice being almost as good as Barkley, well, that depends on your definition of "almost". I see Barkley as an elite talent and he's the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson in my opinion. And I think Barkley is more rounded than Peterson, especially in the passing game. I compare him to Ladainian Tomlinson. What would you pay for Adrian Peterson or LT2 at the start of their careers? So, I don't view it as an "over pay" if people believe that's who Saquon Barkley will become. He hasn't proven anything yet. But, he's as "can't miss" as I've ever evaluated.

That leads us to Guice, who should end up as an elite RB in his own right. He's a fantastic runner. But, I think he will end up dinged up throughout his career because of his running style. Like his teammate last year, they run with a purpose and put their bodies on the line. That leads to being healthy on a limited basis. It doesn't mean he won't play through some dings and injuries. But, I would bet that owners will get more years of high production out of Barkley than they will out of Guice.

With all of that said, owners should target 1.2 in this draft like they would normally target 1.1 in most drafts. That's roughly Guice's value. I will say that the prime target in this year's draft is 1.3 though because I view Michel as having similar value to Guice. Then there is a separation of tiers again in my book. So, targeting 1.2 or 1.3 should yield a high caliber prospect for owners.

I am a Guice believer and bought 1.02. I sent what may have been an overpay but I was selling depth pieces to build for the future and to swing for the fences.

I sent Alshon+Hyde+2.07+4.07 for 1.02+3.02+Trent Taylor+Chris Ivory.

The important thing in the deal for me was retaining my other first round pick and getting significantly younger in replacements for Hyde and Jeffrey.

I had the option of trying to trade for 1.1 but it would have cost me twice as dearly. I'm expecting Guice to put up 90% of what we get from Barkley at least. Depending on landing spots there is always the chance that his situation makes him look like the much smarter buy, you never know at this point. Hunt would never have been looked at as a "better back" than Fournette last year, but he looks like a bargain now.

Would agree the value is right. Really comes down to preference. Its definitely a gamble on landing spot for Guice and whether he is legit but i still think i would prefer that side. I just dont trust Gordon honestly.

Only knock on Guice is how he can produce in the passing game. But if he goes to a good situation, you can be an RB1 as we have seen with Zeke Elliot in Dallas and not be used like Bell and DJ in the pass game.

So it comes down to that, RBs with size at least have the TD upside so he will be valuable, just the "super-back" prototype depends on how he shows in the receiving game. Unfortunately LSU does us no favors with their scheme, not using RBs in the pass game at all over the years.

But I am very high on Guice, but I think Barkley is easily in a tier of his own because of the receiving game profile he has built in college.

Guice reminds me of Doug Martin. I think he's very clearly the #2 prospect, but I think he's prone to being apart of a committee. He is a good RB, but I don't think he's a special RB. I would not trade Saquon Barkley for Guice, unless there was a significant piece coming back. Barkley is a three-down back and is special on the ground and in the receiving game. He could become the best RB in football one day and nobody will be surprised.