Over the last few months, I have done a couple of pieces on weekly
target shares, which refer to the percentage of the "target
pie" a player receives on his own team. Ideally, target shares
allow us to get a handle on just how much of a "go-to guy"
a particular player is. Most of the time (at least during the preseason),
target shares are utilized from a broader point of view, such as
a half of a season or all 16 games. I'm more interested in providing
information that allows owners to make smarter trades and waiver-wire
adds.

For the sake of keeping the chart as useful as possible, I have
eliminated any non-receiver (quarterback, offensive lineman, etc.)
and any player who has failed to manage a 10 percent target share
in at least one game. Injured players are included to highlight
how much of the "pie" teammates will have to pick up
in their absence.

Note: You can sort
each column as you wish. The numbers highlighted in green are
weeks in which a player achieved at least a 30 percent target
share. Blue numbers indicate a player finishing between 25-29.9
percent in that week.

** All target totals used in this piece courtesy of Pro Football
Reference.

This is going
to come about one week too late for owners in deeper leagues,
but I'll be more than a little stunned if J.J.
Nelson isn't an every-week starter in three-receiver leagues
moving forward. Michael
Floyd has been benched for Nelson, while John
Brown can't seem to get or stay healthy this year. Receivers
that tip the scales at 5-10 and 160 pounds typically don't create
much fantasy buzz, but if there is one quality I look for more
than any other when figuring out what players might be poised
for sustained success, it is trust from their quarterbacks, and
it is clear to me Nelson has it. While many will point to Nelson's
8-79-2 line (on 12 targets) from Week 8 as the eye-opener, the
UAB product actually first caught my eye in a relief spot in Week
11 against the Cincinnati Bengals last season. He did so again
two weeks ago versus the Seattle Seahawks, drawing seven targets
and occasionally blowing right past CB Richard
Sherman. While Nelson is never going to make his living working
inside the hashmarks, he's also not afraid to do so either. But
it is his 4.28 speed that should drive owners to start him this
week (San Francisco) and beyond. Yes, Carson Palmer isn't what
he was even last year at this time, but HC Bruce Arians believes
in his vertical passing game and Nelson is the best candidate
to lift the lid off of defenses right now.

Tight end is perhaps the most difficult position to find an every-week
starter off waivers. While his ceiling is obviously going to be
limited somewhat for as long as QB Brock Osweiler continues to
struggle, C.J. Fiedorowicz has a great shot at being that player.
The third-year pro saw nearly a quarter of the team's targets
in Week 8 and has maintained a pretty steady pace in that regard
since taking ownership of the starting job in Week 4. Perhaps
the most encouraging part is that he has managed at least seven
targets in four straight weeks and posted at least 10 PPR fantasy
points in four of his last five games. Over that latter stretch,
only six tight ends (Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron,
Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker) have averaged more
than Fiedorowicz's 13.6 PPR fantasy points. Given who is behind
him on that same list and Osweiler's problems in regards to feeding
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, it is not unthinkable Fiedorowicz
can maintain his current pace. It is already pretty clear he is
an important part of the passing game, and it is also very possible
I have laid out his new floor. Even more encouragingly, if Osweiler
picks it up in the second half and is able to make Hopkins and
Fuller viable threats again, it is only going to open up more
space for (and bring less attention to) Fiedorowicz down the middle
of the field.

Taylor Gabriel is thriving in Atlanta after getting lost in the
wash in his first two NFL seasons with Cleveland. While his target
shares are hardly awe-inspiring, the Abilene Christian product
has caught 16 of his 18 targets. His play and 4.28 speed (not
to mention familiarity with OC Kyle Shanahan from their one year
together with the Browns in 2014) has the Falcons finding ways
to get him involved in the running game too, although there is
no chance that will be a regular occurrence given his 5-8, 167-pound
frame. However, Atlanta is sporting a pretty dynamic offense this
year, so stopping the team's third receiver (deep threat or not)
is a pretty low priority. It is fair to consider Gabriel a lite
version of J.J. Nelson with a better quarterback and less opportunity
for targets.

All you really need to know about Marqise Lee right now is that
he is tied with Allen Robinson for the most receiving yards by
a Jaguar (442), which tells you about all you need to know about
how things are going in Jacksonville. Lee has pulled off this
small miracle off despite seeing 32 fewer targets (81-49) and
only has five fewer catches (39-34) than Robinson. Lee has yet
to visit the end zone, which is about the only reason he isn't
inside the top 50 receivers in PPR scoring. For what it's worth,
he is the highest-scoring fantasy receiver who has yet to score
a touchdown. He's managed at least six targets in all but one
game since Week 1 (and owned a target share of at least 14.3 percent
in those contests) and could have some immediate value despite
a difficult matchup this week if Allen Hurns is unable to pass
the league's concussion protocol in time. There's really no way
to tell if he can maintain the steady floor he has seemingly established
over the remainder of the season, but he has provided enough consistency
in some difficult spots already despite being third in line for
targets. I've already touched on the lack of upside, but owners
need to realize the importance of high-floor players as well.
Lee is making his case as one of those players.

It has taken about three years longer than I anticipated, but
the Rams may have finally started to use Lance Kendricks in the
way most expected when they drafted him in 2011- as a pass-catcher.
Virtually no player in a Case Keenum-led offense is going to send
the masses screaming to the waiver wire, but it's getting harder
to ignore how much more involved Kendricks has been lately, exceeding
a 23.3 percent target share in three of his last five games and
finishing with five or more receptions in four of those same five
contests. Obviously, Keenum caps his touchdown upside, while Kenny Britt and Brian Quick are much more likely to visit the end zone,
which explains why Kendricks only has one score halfway through
the season. Be that as it may, he has posted target totals of
eight, nine and 12 over the last three weeks - the kind of volume
we typically dream about at tight end. Don't hesitate to cut bait
the moment this trend comes to a halt, but owners need to - at
the very least - consider Kendricks if they are in a pinch at
the position.

Trending Downward

Dennis Pitta ranks second in the league among tight ends with
60 targets (surprisingly one more than Jordan Reed) and is tied
for third with Zach Miller with 40 catches, meaning he is on pace
for 120 targets and 80 catches, which are elite numbers at his
position. Yet somehow, he is almost useless in fantasy given his
team's offensive woes and only one target inside the 10 this season.
This wouldn't be as mindboggling on other teams that have a plethora
of big receivers, but 5-9 Steve Smith Sr. and 6-0 Mike Wallace
aren't exactly intimidating. Pitta is 6-4 and has long been Joe Flacco's most trusted short-range option in the passing game,
which would normally lends itself to him also being his most trusted
option in the red zone. That's not happening, and it is fair to
wonder why an offense having so many problems scoring isn't trying
to take advantage of the one big pass-catcher it has in close
quarters. Crockett Gillmore (6-6, 260) has the same number of
targets inside the 10 as Pitta, so it's not as if another player
at his position is vulturing touchdowns. Owners should start Pitta
without hesitation in Week 10 given how awful the Cleveland Browns
have been at defending tight ends (look no further than Jason Witten last week), but it is fair to wonder if he is worth holding
after that.

With most players, opportunity is enough. Tavon Austin is not
one of those players, at least not this year (37 catches on 66
targets). Of the 33 receivers who have at least 60 targets (Austin
is tied for 20th), only Julian Edelman (yep, I know) and Jeremy Kerley has turned them into fewer fantasy points in PPR formats.
What's worse is that Austin has 14 carries as well, giving him
80 opportunities - the same number as Odell Beckham Jr. The former
No. 8 overall pick probably needs an upgrade at quarterback more
than any other receiver on the roster, especially since the same
defenders that load the box to stuff Todd Gurley on a regular
basis are the same ones who can run to Austin when he gets a handoff
or reception within five yards of line of scrimmage. Granted,
Austin isn't helping himself with five drops (one behind Mike Evans, Marvin Jones and Brandon Marshall off the league lead).
I have maintained for some time that Austin would be a superstar
in a place like New England, not only because of the quarterback
play he'd receive, but the unlimited ways in which he would be
used (again, not happening in LA). Last week's 4.3-percent target
share was his second sub-15 percent share in the last three games,
perhaps signaling Los Angeles is ready to let Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and Lance Kendricks carry the passing game. Most owners
knew drafting Austin had the chance to be a bit of a roller-coaster
ride, but despite posting three good-to-great fantasy performances
so far this season, he has yet to do so in back-to-back games.
For a player that receives as many opportunities as he does on
a weekly basis, that's not good enough to keep on a roster in
the majority of leagues.

One of these years, things are going to work out for Kyle Rudolph
(and not for just part of a season). After a promising start in
which he had a target share of at least 19.4 percent and at least
seven targets in each of his first four outings, Rudolph has topped
each mark only once in four games since. OC Norv Turner - a play-caller
who seemingly always has a good tight end - resigned last week
and was replaced by Pat Shurmur, but that would seem to be the
least of his problems. The offensive line is as bad now as any
front five in the league, which means the sixth-year tight end
will almost certainly be asked to block more often. The first
quarter of this season is exactly what I have expected from Rudolph
for at least the last three years, but I don't see how this situation
turns around in his favor this season (at least for fantasy purposes).
Add in the possibility (likelihood?) of Sam Bradford missing a
game or two in the very near future and it makes for a pretty
grim outlook for a player who was a must-start about a month ago.

Longtime readers should know by now I tend not to go overboard
on any player (or game, for that matter), so it should only come
as a minor surprise that I've included Chris Hogan here. In theory,
he is trending upward because he is coming off his best fantasy
performance of the season. In reality, I see a receiver who has
been targeted five or fewer times in all but one game thus far.
While it is true he's only played alongside Tom Brady for four
games, the Patriots are already having problems getting Julian Edelman enough chances to be an every-week fantasy start. Hogan
has yet to occupy a target share of higher than 17.1 percent and
hasn't exceeded 12.2 percent since Brady's return. Now, New England
will probably need to make room for Dion Lewis as well. While
I realize Lewis and Hogan don't play the same position or operate
in the same part of the field, the Patriots are unlikely to phase
out James White completely, meaning Hogan has one more player
to compete with for targets. The former Buffalo Bill is going
to be worth starting anytime Brady connects with him on a deep
ball, but good luck predicting when that is going to happen and
how often.

Blake Bortles mentioned sometime right before the start of the
season that it would be irresponsible if Julius Thomas was not
a significant part of the offense. Well, so much for that. Despite
staying mostly healthy for a change, Thomas is averaging three
catches and 35 yards receiving. He hasn't exceeded three catches
or 30 receiving yards since Week 2 and is averaging 9.1 PPR fantasy
points for the season (seven per game since Week 2). Marqise Lee's
"emergence" has robbed Thomas of a lot of opportunities
he became accustomed to last season, while Bortles' poor play
has given him fewer opportunities to score inside the red zone.
There are roughly 15 tight ends I would trust more than the artist
formerly known as Orange Julius in fantasy right now. With Jacksonville
likely to depend more on the run going forward, the few opportunities
Thomas has been getting could dry up even further.

Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.