SNP prepared to vote on NHS issues in England to protect the service in Scotland in the event of a hung parliament

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, said her colleagues at Westminster would vote on issues specifically concerning the health service in England in order to protect funding to the NHS in Scotland PA

Scottish Nationalist MPs would be prepared to vote on matters relating to the NHS in England in the event of another hung parliament after the general election in May, the party's leader has said.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, said her colleagues at Westminster would vote on issues specifically concerning the health service in England in order to protect funding to the NHS in Scotland.

She said the move was necessary as health spending in Scotland was linked to spending levels in England through the Barnett formula.

But her comments drew a furious response from senior Conservatives who accused the SNP leader of deliberately stoking tensions with English MPs in order to re-open the issue of Scottish independence after last year's referendum 'no' vote.

Traditionally SNP MPs at Westminster do not vote on English or Welsh only issues - although they reserve the right to do so if they affect Scotland's Barnett formula allocation.

But with the polls suggesting they could hold the balance of power after the election on May 7, the party has indicated that it could be prepared to support a minority Labour government.

In a BBC interview, Ms Sturgeon said they would be prepared to back measures to protect funding to the NHS in England or to reverse what she said had been the progressive privatisation of the health service under the Conservatives.

"We would be prepared to vote on matters of English health because that has a direct impact potentially on Scotland's budget. The Barnett formula determines how much our budget is," she said.

"If decisions are taken over time that reduce the public funding of the health service in England that has a direct knock-on effect to Scotland's budget and our ability to protect the funding of Scotland's health service.

"It is a self-interested position for us to take."

Experts' predictions for the general election

Experts' predictions for the general election

1/10
Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

Just as the polls in 2010 pointed to no overall majority for any party, the overwhelming evidence points to Labour either being the largest party or getting a small majority, probably below 20. The Lib Dems and SNP should each win between 25 and 35 seats, with single-figure wins for both Ukip and the Greens.

2/10
Joe Twyman (YouGov)

I predict it will be close. I predict a few tremors, though earthquakes are unlikely. I predict the eventual winner may not be the direct result of public opinion, but instead the outcome of political negotiations. It’s too early to predict numbers given all the uncertainties surrounding (among other things) Ukip, the SNP and the Lib Dems. It is possible that it will be close between Conservative and Labour in terms of both votes and seats. The Lib Dems might retain 20-30 seats and the balance of power, despite small gains for the SNP, and at most half a dozen Ukip seats.
Gun to my head? Labour minority government.

Rex

3/10
Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

A mug’s game for this election months away, but my predictions in order of likelihood: most likely a hung parliament or coalition of some kind, closely followed by either a small Labour majority or an equally small Conservative majority. Given how close the parties are, the unknown performance of Ukip in key marginals, the effect of incumbency on Lib Dem losses, the final size of SNP surge and so on, to be more precise is simply foolish!
Professor Tetlock, who found that forecasts by experts were only slightly better than throwing dice, weighs heavily upon me!

Rex

4/10
Rick Nye (Populus)

I can see a hung parliament, where Labour is the largest party in terms of seats – though not necessarily in terms of votes, with the Lib Dems having 30 seats or fewer, the SNP having up to 20 seats and Ukip having no more than five seats.
In short, it’s going to get messy and stay messy for some time to come.

5/10
Nick Moon (GfK)

I can’t recall there ever being an election more difficult to predict than this one. I’m confident no party will have an overall majority, with the Tories probably the largest party but no single partner for a viable coalition, with the Lib Dems on 25 seats, the SNP 20, Ukip three, and the Greens one.

6/10
Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

We might have expected a workable Labour majority, were it not for the wild-card rise of the SNP in Scotland. Survation’s December Scottish polls suggest an almost complete wipeout by the SNP in Scotland and result in 40+ seat gains – mostly at Labour’s expense.
My current predictions are: Labour the largest party by 40-50 seats over the Tories, no overall majority; Tories 235-255 seats; Lib Dems 20-30 seats; SNP 30-40 seats – maybe held back from potential support level by opposition incumbency and tactical voting by pro-unionist voters. Finally, Ukip, 5-10 wins from Conservatives, including Rochester and Clacton, and potentially a single Labour-seat surprise.

7/10
Michelle Harrison (TNS)

The battleground over the next three months is at the kitchen table – the difference between what the statistics tell us about the economy, the experience that Britons are having of managing their household budgets, and where – and if – they believe politics can make a difference. In this regard, the disconnect with the major political parties is more interesting than the horse race.

8/10
James Endersby (Opinium Research)

Our first poll for 2015 shows Labour one point ahead [see above], but polls four months out from an election are snapshots, not predictions. It would be extremely unwise for a pollster to make a firm prediction now.
At the moment, Opinium’s estimate on polling day would be the Tories slightly ahead on vote share, but Labour slightly ahead on seats. These numbers are based on a uniform swing, with tweaks to Green and Ukip numbers based on local information: Labour 320 seats, Conservatives 271, Lib Dems 20, SNP 16, Plaid Cymru three, Greens two, Ukip four. A hung parliament with Labour potentially closer to a majority coalition than the Conservatives.

9/10
Martin Boon (ICM)

I’ve not recovered from the Scottish referendum campaign yet, and here we go with another wildcard strewn nail-biter. For me, Labour on 30 per cent will only fractionally nudge past their woeful 2010 showing – behind the Tories on 33 per cent – but enough to secure more seats (290 for Labour, 280 for the Tories) on boundary wackiness. The Lib Dems will secure 14 per cent of the vote and 35 seats; Ukip will also get 14 per cent, but that only gets them a couple of seats. As for Scotland, I’m bewildered, but as you asked I’ll say 30 seats for the SNP, which wipes out a breathing-space victory in seats for Labour.

10/10
Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

Declined to take part. His spokeswoman said: “As he has said many times, his polls are snapshots not predictions.”
Health warning: when The Independent on Sunday carried out a similar exercise in April 2010, at the start of that year’s election campaign, eight out of eight pollsters predicted a Conservative overall majority.

Rex

Conservative Defence Minister Anna Soubry angrily accused Ms Sturgeon of seeking to fuel demands from some English MPs to be given a greater say over English-only matters in order to undermine the Union.

"She puts our Union at risk again. I think she plays with dangerous stuff," Ms Soubry told BBC Radio 4's The World at One

"She is playing into the hands of those people who get much more irate than I do about 'English votes for English laws'. You're just fuelling those people who want to see this separation in our Parliament."

In contrast, Labour's shadow justice secretary Sadiq Khan - whose party may have to rely on SNP votes in order to form a government - said that Scottish MPs were entitled to vote on all issues at Westminster.

"Scottish colleagues can vote on all issues in Parliament and it is really important that they do so," he told The World At One.