Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, June 25-27

Unlike yesterday, when George’s rational seemed so obvious it could
have come straight from Bill Walton’s lips, he gave a more detailed
analysis with his Braun selection:

“Braun had a great record against [opposing Twins starter Nick
]Blackburn and Blackburn has been pitching especially poorly lately ( I
have him on my rotisserie league team, so I know). Again it’s a home
game for Braun on a field where there can never be a weather issue. I
hesitated a little when I went to the Brewer’s web site and saw that
Braun was opening a new restaurant tonight — would he be focused?”

Now that’s the kind of homework I want to see from a man with a
41-game streak. Enough with this whole “well, it was a lefty-righy
matchup and Ichiro is fast” shenanigans. I need more undercover,
player-X-is-opening-a-restaurant TMZ-style Carmen Sandiego groundwork.

Our second-place stallion, “kbarr9″, pressed the pause button on a
37-game streak by questionably selecting Joe Mauer, who not-so
shockingly didn’t play because it was a day game after a night game and
the whole Mauer is a catcher and the Twins don’t want to go Enron on
their $184 million investment in year one.

Is it possible “kbarr9″ pulled an Algeria, playing for a tie
while under the pressure of a must-win situation with Dick George
distancing himself with a big lead?

Like this:

Related

152 Comments

Professor Pete’s Dry-Ice Cold Silver Bullet Lock of a Lifetime for Friday: Adam Jones, Baltimore, vs. J.D. Martin, Washington. Jones has recently made Joe Dimaggio look like Mario Mendoza. Except Mendoza never faced Martin, who would have made Mendoza look like Dimaggio. Jones has been unconscious; however, unlike most mortals, who typically fail to get out of bed while unconscious, Jones, with eyes closed, has batted .524 through his last five games, in which he has had a minimum of two hits (he had three last night in five at-bats). As for Martin, he has in his three previous June starts pitched 5 2/3, 7 2/3, and 6 innings, and given up 8, 9, and 8 hits respectively, or 25 hits in 19 1/3 innings (during which he walked one batter, a nearly perfect total for BTS batters). Jones has been used as a pinch hitter only once this season, on May 21, when he homered off Washington’s Drew Storen. Jones will hit today, or a member of the Levi Ghetto Cats nearest you will come over and mow your lawn, at some point, in the next century or two, provided you supply a 12-pack of Milwaukee’s Best (unless it’s Erinmarie, who will insist on coffee-flavored, micro-brewed beer).*

*If Dick George goes with Jones and goes on to win $3 million, he must send $52,631.58 to the charity of his choice in the name of the Levi Ghetto Cats

HUMOR: For those that don’t want to seem like they are brown-nosing the leaders nor seem overly harsh, here are some mixed blessings you might consider posting
1. Hope your guy’s pitches never touch the ground
Translated: Hope he pops out or Hope he gets a home run
2. Hope your guy comes up with bases loaded
Translated: Hope he gets a sac fly or Hope the guaranteed strikes allow for easy hits
3. Hope MLB’s GameDay blue dot shows “in play, no out”
Translated: Hope he got on due to an error or Hope he got a hit
4. Hope MLB’s GameDay blue dot shows “in play, run(s)”
Translated: Hope he hit a sac fly/force out or Hope he got a hit/homerun
5. Hope your guy makes the difference in the ballgame
Translated: Hope he pinch hits with a chance to win & strikesout or Hope he goes 5-5
6. Hope your guy has an easy game
Translated: Hope it’s a blow out & he gets rested without getting a hit or Hope baseballs look like grapefruits
7. Hope your guy bats 1000 today
Translated: Hope he never sees a strike or Hope he gets a hit every at bat

And to contine with the humor:
8. Hope he gets a hit today
Translated: Hope the hit is later scored an error or Hope he simply gets a hit
Translated: I’m just saying that & hoping he goes 0-fer or Hope you remember me and give me some of your winnings for being on your side!

Humor continued. I was trying to create 10 mixed blessings but came up with just 9. I’ll leave it to you guys/gals to add to the list. Here is #9
9. Hope your streak continues
Translated: Hope it continues tomorrow & gets reset today or Hope a hit is recorded

For the first time I’m going with a player from my favorite team, the Mets. I’m actually thinking of going with Met players more often. I think it would make the game a lot more fun watching my team not only hoping players come thru to help us win but to keep my streak going.

@rip: Helps if your team has more than a couple reliable batters to pick from & apperas Beltran is on his way back soon. Also helps if they score runs allowing extra ABs.
As for my team, the Cubs, hoping the 2nd half of the season adds more players to the pickable list.
P.S. I was considering Jose also, but went with the Rays.

Well I changed to Sean Rodriguez from Hamilton. He is hitting pretty good and they are facing the Diamondbacks so figured why not. Hamilton’s hitting streak has to end sometime and it may be tonight. Dick picked Ichiro and Kbarr picked Jeter. That Jeter pick is funny as Jeter is in a slump right now and can’t hit anything pretty much. Here’s hoping Jeter’s slump continues and I hope Ichiro has an 0 fer as well. Who called it with Dick picking Ichiro?

Jeter is not a bad pick given he will get 5 ABs. Even with his less than 300 avg, he makes up for his road game troubles by getting 5 ABs. He goes 1for5 and he hits .200. Cano goes 1for4, he hits .250. Cano may end up with higher avg. but the end result is the same for BTS purposes.

I think outside of Ichiro, you just get a sneaky feeling that today is a board cleansing day. All of the top picks are somewhat iffy.

My decision came between Rios and Prada. Prada back home is good but lefty and a new pitcher bad. At the same time, he was too hot to not hit 3 days in a row. But PradaBag burned me many times with that same logic last month. So just went with Rios’ prowess during day games.

I think outside of Ichiro, you just get a sneaky feeling that today is a board cleansing day. All of the top picks are somewhat iffy.

My decision came between Rios and Prada. Prada back home is good but lefty and a new pitcher bad. At the same time, he was too hot to not hit 3 days in a row. But PradaBag burned me many times with that same logic last month. So just went with Rios’ prowess during day games.

@blanco21: Sorry for the delay. After posting the Top2500, blog always locks me out for a bit shortly thereafter; saying I posted too much too soon. To answer your questions: You and 3 others; that’s all – next one is on page 40 (panda). You don’t want my advice regarding your pick, I’ve been so backwards that my input is meaningless.

Professor Pete – You post about Adam Jones is a bit sketcy as to why you are taking him today! lol – I just read it so I can’t switch from Ichirio. Who do you see in your crsytal ball for Saturday? I took the wrong White Sox in HR Derby Rios goes deep and I had Konerko.

Pujols is always a suspect because he never comes through when you expect him to because nobody pitches to him.

I doubt he will go against Lefty Wolf v. Suzuki. Wolf might have turned the corner. I actually want Dickie to choose Ichiro so Wolf can handcuff him by pounding him inside. Wolf throws very hard when he is on.

PradaBag is somewhat suspect and Detroit pitcher is hit/miss. He can pitch brilliantly or go mediocre. He can strike out tons and he can handcuff righties.

I doubt Zimmerman. That guys always 50/50. You never know when he is gonna get a hit. One of the hardest to predict for BTS because he is so even against different splits.

Are we looking at another no-hitter? AZ-TB game. Kinda bites since my piddly Survivor/BTS streaks are both riding on that game. Hats off to AZ though, no hits, 7 walks in 3 innings, including a bases loaded with no outs, and they are winning.

TB no-hit thru 8 now. They let Edwin Jackson pitch the 8th with 113 pitches thrown already. Now ith 134 pitches thrown; think they’ll let him finish? High pitch count, 1 run lead. And if the no-hitter is complete, 2nd time this season TB gets no-hit. Kind of torn myself: hoping for a tie so my pick gets another AB and enjoying a no-hitter.

So Dave Bush has 1and2 on Ichro and the moron throws a curveball that barely start to bend right around the plate. With grandma curveball like that, he needs to join Eric Byrnes in his softball league.

TB has been no hit so all the Rays were streak breakers and this is the 2nd time this season the have been no hit. They were perfect gamed in Oakland but they were in that neighborhood somewhere tonight a few blocks away. Rollins btw went 0 for 1 with 4 BBs in the Phillies 9-0 away win at home over the Blue Jays.

Wow, TB no-hit again in less than 2 months (Braden’s perfect game 9 May). Edwin Jackson: complete game, no hitter, 149 pitches thrown, 8 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1 error. There are far worse ways to lose one’s streak – thumbs up!
Wonder if any BTS players out there had streaks snapped by TB in both of those games?

Some nohitter. They should mark this one with asterisk. Walked 8 batters and almost didn’t win. This is really nothing to celebrate. It still does not prove Edwin Jackson stinks. Actually, it proves he does stink. Walking 8 batters is nothing to be proud of.

Ok. It looks like Ichiro will be 1for3 tonight. A cheap hit off the glove of Rickie Weeks takes Dickie to 42. That one again could have gone either way. Every luck imaginable goes his way. Unreal! When will this nonsense end?

I wonder about Hamilton. He must be smoking something. I’ve never seen someone on this kind of tear. This is ridiculous. How does pitchers keep pitching to him after what they have witnessed. I would just walk him.

@btsplayer: no-hitter is a no-hitter. Imagine pitching a no-hitter and losing… been done before. Walks can be strategic but in this game, both pitchers were walking players like mad until they got their game on. There were also hit batters in that game too, 1 or 2 if I recall.
And I agree with Champion88. If all the pitchers you want sent back to the minors, working at Taco Bell, or selling peanuts at the game left for the season, we’d lose chances of easy picks. But likely we’d see other struggling pitchers take their place & the leaders will have just as many easy picks (more or less). I won’t lie, I will be very disappointed if the game is won by anyone but me :), but while it lasts, it makes scoreboard/GameDay watching far more interesting; even if a bit stressful.

yeah but 8 walks? I could even understand to 4. Was Jackson pitching to win or pitching to pitch a no hitter? Because its not like Arizona had this game in the bag. To me, 8 walks takes the spirit away from the no hitter. He walked their best hitter, Zob twice.

The problem I have with Dickie winning is he is absolutely the worst picker of anyone I recall who came this far. Its the norm for him to get lucky everyday and get away with one hit or hit on the last AB (off reliever). This guy does not deserve to win.

I gotta give credit to Edwin Jackson. I was watching it on GameDay because of my picks. He allowed 7 of the 8 walks before the 1st out was recorded in the 3rd inning; walked bases loaded with no outs to start the 3rd & got out of it. Yeah, I’ll give him credit – job well done.

Albert Puljos it is. Good call gents. Survivorland got nailed again last night for the second time of 55%+ in less than a week. All of a sudden my 4gm is 185th place tie. Rangers back in the win column today and Josh to continue his dominance. GL to all. EXCEPT Puljols.

“I wonder about Hamilton. He must be smoking something. I’ve never seen someone on this kind of tear. This is ridiculous. How does pitchers keep pitching to him after what they have witnessed. I would just walk him.”

Because that would not accomplish anything. He got 3 singles yesterday, so 3 walks is the same number of total bases.

@champ88: “I don’t care if the guy wins the consolation prize, but I don’t want the user record getting touched. Otherwise, they might stop raising the prize level each year.”
Out of our control. Look at Survivor; increased prize, right? They didn’t offer cash last year did they? Even so, $3mil next year is not worth $3mil this year; so offering same amount or slightly more may be considered regardless.

Wolf has thrown 2 3-hitters in a row. He is also very tough on the lefties. Unfortunately, Pujols bats very well during the day. I am hoping Kyle pitches around Pujols. He walks lots batters so why not just walk Pujols. Let’s shoot for 0for1 with 3 walks and a strikeout!

champion this might be a crappy answer to your question but I went with Ichie because he’s been hitting well (.348 in the last week alone), his numbers today are good and well, let’s face it, I’m at zero so why not. :)

1st 2 ABs were rather weak. Here’s hoping he doesn’t come up with bases loaded or 1st & 2nd and less than 2 outs. Extra innings may not be a player today; but don’t want 5 ABs either; KC keep hits/walks to a minimum!

Well, Davies only @ 88 pitches & will probably pitch to Albert, due up 2nd.
@nardberg: “Just for the record I will not wish an 0-fer on dick – bad kharma there. :)”
For the reord I am wishing & would expect the same if I were in D.George’s spot – not fooling myself.

Wow. This nonsense has to stop. Dickie does not deserve to win! He is absolutely the worst picker and every day this happens. How does one get so lucky everyday??????????????????????????????????????????

Well, another last AB success. Tomorrow’s prediction for the Leader is tough. I think he’ll go outside his comfort zone and play the averages:
Cano: lefty-lefty, no stats
Pujols: lefty-righty, no stats, rain
Ichirio: lefty-lefty, no stats
Prado: right-righty, no stats, rain
M.Cabrera, righty-righty, no stats, rain
M&M boys: lefty-lefty, no stats, rain
Those are his comfort picks. I don’t see him going that route: M.Young or Hamilton for Sunday

The fact is Pujols was a bad pick. Anyone arguing otherwise is full of dung drops. Farnsworth is totally useless. His fastball is flat as white bread. That is why Yanks dumped him. He must have been smoking crack all day to think he can just throw his flat fastball right down Broadway.

@btsPlayer: Joking of course, but if D.George falls before 57 is reached, we will want you to change your screen name to “Chicken.Little” who is known for saying that the sky is falling.
I think if leader goes with Texas tomorrow, we best hope for Monday/Tuesday for a reset unless Oswalt throws a no-hitter.

@lavolpe: What did I say earlier in the week about the leaders not dying easily. Dickie can go all the way now. He has made dreadful picks day after day and he survives on pure luck. There will be bound to be easy picks coming up next week. Do you think he is gonna go to high 40s and mess up. If he reaches 49. Its over. Nobody is gonna screw up from there. He is gonna watch every single MLB game to find the right hitter.

This nonsense is unreal.

And the past history of top streakers is totally meaningless. There is less than 25 such occurence. I just don’t understand how one person can carry so much luck. He actually and purposely makes crappy picks just to test his luck.

“Kyle Farnsworth used to throw 100 MPH and just had no control. Today it was 95, but poor placement.”

He has been making same crappy pitches for a decade already. You must be thinking about before his arm surgery. That is why said “no” to Farnsworth. He is another guy who should be cleaning elephant drops @ a circus. I hate this guy.

Well, even easy picks backfire. I’m not packing it in emotionally or any other way until day 57 is over. I think Texas tomorrow will be his pick, but who knows, except him. Actually he isn’t lucky at all, it’s all skill — pfffft!
When he does fall, I will continually pester you to change your screen name though ;)

Hey!!! I know how to beat him at this game. Listen up folks… more sick humor coming:
I have been correct for the past 4x guessing leader’s picks and if correct for tomorrow: everyone reading the blog pick either Hamilton or M.Young tomorrow, then you can help will your own pick to fail — taking one for the team.

@btsPlayer and ALL. Decided to backtrack and gather some stats about our leader’s picks and results.
Games: 35
Picks with Multiple hits: 19, Solo hits: 17
Picks with hits of starters: 28, Relievers: 7
Pick’s only hit on last official AB: 6
The secret to his success is no secret: Pick great batters against poor pitchers/teams. Where his luck differs from the others is that he happened to pick great batters that didn’t go 0-fer that day; where others, even on the same team, did go 0-fer.
Lately, he has been getting lucky. In the 1st 35 games, last AB hits tallied only 2. Maybe the pressure is getting to him?

Man. Crappy picks are all beginning to follow through. Oh Ichiro, where were you in the past when I needed you. Only thing you gave me was a foul smelling tuna sashmi.

@lavolpe: if you go back to my eariler posts rearding dickie, I actually praised him and in awe. He really was making good picks. That name always stood on my mind for obvious reasons. I even told my friend about him that this guy seemed troublesome. This was when he was in high teens. He somehow managed to survive all of the turmoils and wipeouts that happened when his streak was in the 20s. But like you said, he stopped doing that in the last 10 days and gone with lemming picks. Somehow everyone of them comes through.

I am not sure about TX. I have the feeling Oswalt can pitch well against his crosstown rival. I do hope everyone picks TX rangers and get burned.

I went with Corey Patterson BTW. I am now on a roll. Finally, all my past mistakes are learned and I have no problem picking non-popular picks. If I was in Dickie’s streak today, I would still have gone with him.

As soon as I am finally ready to bust out my new theory on this game, the game is about to end. That is life!

Oops. Misspoke. In the first 30, not 35, games, last AB hits tallied only 2. In the first 23 games, only 3 hits were off relievers. Also note that of those 35 games, he only really got lucky 7 times – those against relievers (5 last AB hits came off relievers). Obviously we pick for a hit off the starter. Why 35 games? I only have data when he hit the Top2500.

You know as much as I would love see Dickie fail and if does fail, he deserves a better consolation prize than 10K. Adding one zero to that seem more apporpriate. Even than its winner takes all. 10K really is pitiful. After tax, its like what? Enough to let the wifey stay home and take out your friends to fun night at a almost high class strip joint? Come on. A-Roid makes that each pitch he swings.

And from what I read about A-Roid in non-baseball life, he swings quite a bit and blows 10K$ likes its a dollar bill. So we go through all this excitement and grief for what? I mean we pay for his salary by buying $10 watered down beer and $8 hotdog. How about my cable bill?

I knew I should have bulked up and learned to throw a knockler. I gotten my fastball up to high 70s when I was in high school. Only if I could get it up to mid 80s and throw tons of butterfly pitch. I’ve sitting pretty like Wakefield despite having a huge gut and old man back problems.

Hey, don’t knock us old farts with back problems! What I enjoy about your posts is that you express passionately what most of us feel, it’s just that your feelings are about 20 fold ours. If D.G. gets to the 50s then many of us may start to feel more emotionally involved as each day passes?

Not worrying about the leader until his streak is 50 games.
My advice to him though is not to tempt the “Baseball gods”
and stay away from the evil trio of streak halters: MVP,
Mauer, Votto and Pujols. DG dodged a high inside fastball today when Pujols got a hit off Farnsworth. Wasn’t Fransworth recently recalled from The Melbourne Kangaroo’s of the Australian League?

One of the reasons I gather the Top2500 is to analyze it during the off-season. Try to see what worked for those that got into the 30s and above.
Here’s another bit of anlaysis regarding our leader: He tends to stay with a core of 3 hitters (Cano, Ichiro, Prado) and backups are heavy hitters: Morneau, M.Cabrera, Pujols. He has gone away from those 6 on occassion, mostly when against good pitchers or off-days. He hasn’t picked a batter below .300 except once — only 4 games played that day. Because of his tendancy to stay with select players, that may be his downfall. However, if he strays from his pattern, that could be disasterous too — we’ll just have to wait and see.

^^ Don’t get me wrong; I’m not suggesting that is a good strategy. What if your core players included Longoria, Beltre. Chances are you would have gotten reset since TB has been no-hit twice and 1/2-hit at least once. BOS been 2-hit at least once. These occurrences were by below average pitchers at the time. I don’t recall NYY & ATL falling like that this year. The strategy may be sound nonetheless, just needs to be adjusted which may be why his streak started in mid-May and not sooner. But that core of hitters needs to be found early; getting reset when streaks are around 20 hurts; do that 2 or 3 times and you might as well be starting over at the All-Star break.

I think today is going to be the day that Dick falls. Not an easy day to pick at all. Lots of streaks may be broken today. I have Justin Upton today in BTS, LaRoche in HR BTS but was thinking a ChiSox before him. Thanks drag for the info. I will probably switch in HR BTS. I also have the Rays in Survivor. Good luck to all today.

Such animosity towards poor dick!!!!! :) Don’t get me wrong I’d love to win the 3 mil but let’s see if this guy can make it. 14 more days is pretty tough. If my calculation is correct – August 7th is the do or die date for the game. If dick falls, it could be a whole new game after the break and the big day is looming. Good luck everyone!!! And I agree that the $10K consolation prize is poo poo.

Sunday Picks
BTS – Ichirio
HR – Pick a ChiSox – Cubs are in shambles and Dempster is not the same on road as he is at Wrigley Field. I’m going with Quentin.
Survivor – A’s or Reds
Would there be a winner if the Pirates played the Orioles?

Is there a place where you can see pitcher stats that show how they do on the road v. home. Just heard on ESPN that Masterson of Tribe is 2 – 13 on the road the past 2 seasons.
I would have liked to know that before the game on Saturday not the day after the game Sunday.

If dick.george wins it all he was destined to win. His strategy of picking an elite hitter against whoever is facing the worse pitcher has probably been done many times by BTS players, including something to no avail.

So your guy is up to bat and GameDay shows “in play, out(s)”. When is that a good thing? In my case, single and thrown out trying to stretch it to a double :). Something for me to smile about; hoping we all (less one) have something bigger to smile about in 2 hours.

All I can say is “hehe”. I actually hope someone other than kbarr and Dickie gets the the consolation prize if nobody wins. Neither of them deserve it. They were the luckiest streakers I’ve seen in 4 years. Lemming picks day after day and they got this far.

Btle – HR BTS
You may try this strategy.
Pick your favorite HR hitter for 10 days in a row and see what happens. If he gets hot, you look like a genius. If he’s not hot you have the same result as if you picked someone different each day.

Reyes day #s are even worst in June. I mean this is astonishing. I saw this 2 days ago and stayed away from him yesterday and today. He simply cannot hit during the day. I really wonder why. Maybe he needs dark sunglasses.

@lavolpe: i had to nap to recover from dickie.georgie stress but just realized kbarr is right around the corner with even bigger lucky charms in his boxer. He avoided 2 days of pinch hit wipeout. this sort mistake is rarely forgiven.

I agree with a lot of people that it would be awesome to be the one who wins this game, but at the same time it would be great to see someone win just to prove it is possible. I don’t know why everyone was rooting against George. I wanted to see him do it just so MLB would have to pay out. And it doesn’t matter if he isn’t “creative” in his picks, if he wins picking the same players over and over again all the power to him. It was a great run while it lasted and that just might be the winning streak for the year. We shall see, I hope everyone else had a better day than the people who picked Ichiro.

OK. My declaration. I am gonna win this. Now, I said it. Kbarr please kindly drop tomorrow. My new startegy of going anywhere no man has gone with no fear is working. Patterson yesterday. Rios today. I am sitting pretty on first AB hits with no worry. No more Ichiro. He burned so many of my good streaks this year.

Now, I am fully convinced to pick anyone even including those batting well below .300. I still am not as sure/brave enough to pick one with low avg. plus batting bottom of the line-up even if he shines like a bright star. I am also hitting Coghlan like mad now.

MLB doesn’t care. They want you to win for the free publicity for the website. If someone wins than it will be all over the wire and the website will get huge amts. of hits. They can charge more for those snack wrap banners that annoy us.

Anyway, MLB already paid some insurance co/hedge fund a premium for the top prize. I hope it is Goldman Sachs that have pay out the winner. That would so sweet after what those robber barons did to this country. Although 3 mil is a spit in a piss bucket for them.

@btsplayer: Watch out for wydysz too. Picked Beltre who came in for 1 AB & homered. And if you ask if I’m worred ab kbarr9, I’ll reply the same as with d.g: Ask me when he gets close to 50.
Today is a cleansing of the leaderboard for sure. Only 25% reset so far with still 37% in the 2 late games, but Ichiro took out a lot of top prospects.

lavolpe – Amen on chatter on the leader until he gets to a 50 gamer.
entel:
The man from Japan’s name is Ichiro.
The man from Japan’s name is Ichiro.
The man from Japan’s name is Ichiro.
The man from Japan’s name is Ichiro.
The man from Japan’s name is Ichiro.
It’s pronounced E – che – row not E- Che – rios.
I think I got it……………….lol
Why is Wal-Mart spelled with one L? It’s Wall isn’t it?
Back to the drawing board for Monday.

Reminder to all in the Blogger BTS group.
We are playing for a modest trophy that will be sent to the home of the winner at the end of the season by me. Blanco21 is in the lead with a 20 gamer. Congrats…….
The trophy remains with the winner until the end of the 2011 season when he/she can mails it to the 2011 winner.
My the best man/woman win!
What happened to deb23 – She had some good posts – no more posts?

dragbunt104- Good idead. I did try that earlier in the season with Pujols but I got exhausted from him bec. he never hit a home run. Guess he’s not an early season home run hitter.
My new favorites to pick are the Blue Jays home run hitters.

Meta

The following are trademarks or service marks of Major League Baseball entities and may be used only with permission of Major League Baseball Properties, Inc. or the relevant Major League Baseball entity: Major League, Major League Baseball, MLB, the silhouetted batter logo, World Series, National League, American League, Division Series, League Championship Series, All-Star Game, and the names, nicknames, logos, uniform designs, color combinations, and slogans designating the Major League Baseball clubs and entities, and their respective mascots, events and exhibitions.