Joanna Allhands: Water policy will be a huge focus of next year's Arizona legislative session. But I'm not convinced that's a good thing.

Education funding will be the big fight at the Legislature next year, right?

Wrong, because water policy will suck up the oxygen first. And as much as I want that to be a good thing, I’m not convinced that it is.

Here’s the problem:

A month out, and everyone's fighting

Gov. Doug Ducey convened groups a few months ago to iron out big, wrinkly issues, like how to handle groundwater overuse in rural areas and whether there’s a fairer way to make cuts once a shortage is declared along the Colorado River.

The good news is everyone is still at the table and actively trying to iron out their issues.

But those involved in the closed-door discussions tell me they are no closer to finalizing a set of principles that will guide expected legislation. And that’s bad, because we’re just about a month before the legislative session starts, and it seems like almost everyone with a stake in Arizona water policy is fighting over it.

Not to mention the bitter feud between the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the Central Arizona Project over how to manage water at Lake Mead, a spat over which the governor has threatened to revamp CAP’s governing board.

Meanwhile, there are some very real deadlines looming that will require legislative action – namely, authorizing a three-state drought contingency plan for Lake Mead.

Boats enter the narrow channel leading into Boulder Harbor, June 20, 2015. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

The Desert Princess, a three-level paddle-wheeler on Lake Mead near Hoover Dam, June 20, 2015, on the Arizona/Nevada border. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

J.P. Mangali (left) and his brother, Eric Mangali take a selfie from near Hoover Dam, June 20, 2015. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

A jet skier cruises on Lake Mead near Hoover Dam, June 19, 2015, on the Arizona/Nevada border. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

Roger Dell relaxes in the water at Lake Mead’s Boulder Beach, June 20, 2015. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

Rick Cobler paddles with his dog near Lake Mead’s Boulder Harbor, June 20, 2015. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

A jet skier cruises on Lake Mead near Hoover Dam, June 19, 2015, on the Arizona/Nevada border. A high-water mark or “bathtub ring” is visible on the shoreline; Lake Mead is down over 150 vertical feet.
Mark Henle/The Republic

We already use more Colorado River water than we replenish in Lake Mead each year. Once the reservoir falls below 1,075 feet of elevation, a shortage will be declared, and Arizona will be in line for huge cuts while California takes none.

Even California thinks that’s a bad idea, which is why Arizona, California and Nevada are working on an agreement – the drought contingency plan, or DCP for short – to more fairly spread the cuts once a shortage hits.

Negotiators in the three states want to button up the agreement by July, which means also passing legislation in Congress and in California and Arizona that would set the table for the DCP. Yeah, it’s a huge lift.

But there is good reason for the push.

The current operational guidelines for the Colorado River expire in 2026, and all seven basin states are required to begin renegotiating those terms by the end of 2020. If the DCP – a separate agreement to handle shortages among three of those states – isn’t finished by then, the chances of it passing dramatically decrease once negotiations among all seven states begin.

And that would be bad, because if a shortage is declared without the DCP before those new guidelines are enacted in 2027, Arizona would be on the hook for cuts that would decimate the state's underground water bank and Pinal County agriculture.

Why passing something is so hard

There’s already a 52 percent chance of a shortage happening in 2022, according to the latest forecast from the Bureau of Reclamation. Do we really want to take that risk?

Everyone says no in theory. But reaching an agreement isn't that simple, because sorting out the cuts fairly among users with junior and senior water rights is … a challenge, to put it mildly.

Even worse, I can’t think of one lawmaker who deeply understands state and regional water policy. If water experts can’t agree on guiding principles, it's doubtful that novices are going to do any better with the specifics.

The potential is high for lawmakers to side with local interests over state and regional ones. And – mark my words – given the number of fights out there already, lots of interests will be lobbying lawmakers to ensure they don’t lose anything in the intrastate plan to enact the DCP.

If that effort falls apart and the session devolves into a fight over whether Ducey is trying to neuter CAP for balking ADWR on water policy, you can kiss any chances goodbye of something passing in 2019. The political momentum is here and now, and if lawmakers fail, so does Arizona.