Is the party over?

The headlines all read pretty much the same way: “23andMe slashes 14% of workforce amid slump in DNA testing market.”1

The company’s CEO, Anne Wojcicki, was quoted as saying she was surprised by the downturn in the market for DNA testing, attributing it to both apparent market saturation and concerns for user privacy.2

Then AncestryDNA chimed in.

And the headlines read pretty much the same: “Ancestry to lay off 6% of workforce because of a slowdown in the consumer DNA-testing market.”3

That company’s CEO, Margo Georgiadis, in a blog post, said there had been “a slowdown in consumer demand across the entire DNA category” and noted that “future growth will require a continued focus on building consumer trust…”4

Before either of those reports came another, mostly unnoticed by genealogical fans of DNA testing — from the company that makes the chips and machines to do the tests themselves. In September of 2019, Illumina announced layoffs after it had drastically cut its earnings projection, noting it was being hurt by the downturn in direct-to-consumer testing.5

And one genetic genealogist who tracks database sizes among the testing companies had sounded the alarm even before then: early last summer, Leah Larkin wrote in The DNA Geek blog, “I have been tracking their database sizes for a couple of years now (with data retroactive to 2013), and the decline in growth rate is obvious. Yes, the databases are still growing, but they’re growing more slowly than before.”6 In a January 2020 update, she noted a continued slowdown across the board, adding that “Only MyHeritage has outperformed expectations.”7

So… is the party over?

To which The Legal Genealogist has only one possible answer.

It depends.

It depends, first, on what party we think we’re attending.

The early days of direct-to-consumer DNA testing were a free-for-all. Nobody worried about rules, because there weren’t any. Few of us bothered getting informed consent from our cousins when we asked them to test; few of us even gave informed consent — we just tested, thrilled with the promise of what DNA could tell us. And every time we opened up our results there was something new and exciting there. A match! A whole 9.9cM in common in three 3.3cM segments! How exciting that DNA can solve all our brick walls! All without any downsides!

That party, for sure, is over. We know better now, or we should. DNA is never enough by itself, without some additional evidence, to prove a genealogical relationship,8 small segments are — in Blaine Bettinger’s words — “poison M&Ms,”9 and there are clear and present downsides of testing that testers need to know about before they test.

It depends, second, on the “party favors” the companies offer with their tests. Continued development of useful features? Check. Updates of ethnicity estimates based on expanded reference populations? Check. Analytical tools to understand better and more completely just what a match does and doesn’t tell us? Check. Stagnant features or prettying up the website without things we can really use? Meh. There’s a reason little kids come home from some parties clutching their goody bags tightly… and why they come home from others having tossed those goody bags at the first opportunity.

And it depends, third, on whether the party has gatekeepers and bouncers — or, in more technical speak, data security and a commitment to user privacy. This one is, I suspect, going to be the make-or-break point for the industry long-term. Now that we know just how much of our personal stories are told in our genes, and just how interested forces outside of genealogy are intent on getting their hands on that data, having solid evidence from the party hosts that they’re as interested in our privacy as we are is going to determine whether we stay for the last dance… or find another party altogether.

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9 Comments

leslie rubinson on February 9, 2020 at 11:49 am

maybe now that dna testing at ancestry is slowing down, they will figure out that it makes sense and dollars to let those who have tested at another company to put their results on ancestry for a small fee. same with 23andme. and maybe ancestry will have time to add a chromosome browser to their site. and maybe 23andme will allow trees to be loaded to their site and compared. my 2020 gen wish list 🙂

I don’t believe AncestryDNA will ever allow transfers from other companies unless the data can be verified as originating from an identifiable individual who gives informed consent to the test. This is essential to keep the company’s promise not to allow non-genealogical uses of the database.

I wish they would add a chromosome browser and bring back DNA circles as those were better than Thrulines. Probably not gonna happen though. I deleted my Ancestry DNA data and account months ago either way. I believe MyHeritage will be the only DNA company concerned with Genealogy as far as DNA goes here in the near future, especially since 23andMe and Ancestry already have talked about focusing on health to make money. So MyHeritage is where I will be doing everything.

I agree with your comment on the “party favors.” I think to keep those of us who have tested coming back to the sites (and maintaining subscriptions), we need more/better tools – for genealogy, not health. Otherwise, we may have found we’re done with the DNA “fun” and just get rid of our results. I.e., why leave our DNA info on these sites when there are no new ways to look at the information. I appreciate the evolving ethnicity estimates and some of the new tools, but look forward to more.

It seems those who use or want to use these databases for non-genealogical uses need to learn the limitations of DNA. Right now, in the law enforcement world, it resembles the wild, wild West. Whatever they can get away with, they will. And they don’t see or don’t care about the potential for harm to innocent testers.

Another factor may be the “skeletons” coming out of various family closets. The Long Lost Family show puts it in a favorable light, but not everyone welcomes finding out that they have close family members they didn’t know about. As one of the “skeletons” myself, I was lucky that a genealogist family member was not only welcoming, but has been very helpful in identifying the woman I believe was my mom’s birth mother.

I think that privacy always has been and definitely still is an issue. Many people fear that their results will be shared perhaps with insurance companies and other companies. This might be more of a concern than the sharing with DNA “Cousins”. Some have seen the results of their family members and feel that is enough and that there is really no need for them to be tested. Cost has always been a concern. Even the least expensive tests are considered “overpriced” for many. I have had three tests and I did consider them expensive. The results are interesting though I am not sure that I really understand much more than the word “Match”. I have enjoyed “meeting” a few matches who were previously unknown to me but are shown to be related. I am, therefore, glad to have been tested. I have learned more about my Family and Ancestors. Lets look at the cost again. First, you may have to purchase an account with the testing company. Second, you have to pay extra for the DNA test. You may even have to pay a little more for various other things. All of these costs, of course, come before you receive any information. Sometimes you have to wait months for results. When you get the results you may also have to pay someone to explain them even though the results usually come with some information. Apart from the costs, you wait, and wait, and wait…

I left the dance some time ago. Being a non-American means I have no protection and no recourse from my results being abused. Because I do not want to share my results with your law enforcement, all the money I’ve spent on tests got flushed down the toilet (because now I have no matching results).

Timely subject as I have been wondering why (at all the 4 major sites) there was no big surge of new matches this time of year. I really looked forward to this as I’m still wishing I could Identify my birth father. (not so likely as he was born 1890-1910, closest match a half second cousin).

I suspect, personally, it’s a lot of the fear of the possible use of DNA by insurance companies and employers. Some fear that they will be the link that finds that great Uncle Harry was a mass murderer.

I am recently retired, so I don’t have to fear that some employer could get hold of my 23and me results and find out I’m lactose intolerant.

I understand the fear of misuse of data, to a point. I find I’m part Jewish, and some of the Jewish genealogy blogs tell members that the DNA sites will ultimately be used for a future purge of all Jews. I think it’s kinda nuts, but considering history, I can’t totally blame the fear.

I wish all the DNA sites could make a simple, clear privacy and data sharing policy, one we could understand and protect their customers. But I still wish, for me, there were as many people testing as in past years.

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