So Firing Workers Creates Great Short Term Earnings.

I thought PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian hit the nail on the head when he said that the July stock market rally was nothing more than a sugar high. Skyrocketing unemployment does not create new demand. We are going nowhere without a real housing recovery, which is impossible with gun shy lenders. What little improvement we are seeing in the economy stems from unsustainable government spending. If you think the last stimulus package was tough to get through congress, wait until the next one. With three quarters of Q2 earnings out now, it is clear that company managements panicked and shed staff like a fur coat in a New York summer. This produced a string of top line disappointments and bottom line surprises. Companies can’t continue this, unless they want to shrink themselves out of existence. They are gaining weight by eating their seed corn. I think that if you want to go long here you are risking 10-15% to make 2-4%. It doesn’t look like a good risk/reward ratio to me. I prefer the inverse. There’s no law that says you have to trade every day of the year, despite what the brokers say. Better to keep your powder dry here with the S&P 500 at 993, and watch the long players inevitably crash and burn.