The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2012. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

May 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.192 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

With the end of the 2011/12 La Niña, the Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly continued to warm as one would expect in May 2012 (about 0.338 deg C) to +0.038 deg C.

In response, Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies have also warmed. Both Hemispheres warmed, with the majority taking place in the Northern Hemisphere, primarily in the North Pacific. The only ocean basins to show cooling in May 2012 were the South Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.192 deg C.

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. The East Pacific linear trend varies with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

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The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE anomaly data from November 1981 to May 2012, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies MAYreturn to the level they were at before that surge, and where they had been since the late 1980s. We’ll have to see where things settle.

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(9) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.144 Deg C

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(10) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = +0.018 deg C

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(11) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = +0.019 deg C

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(12) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = -0.028 deg C

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(13) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = +0.028 deg C

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WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on June 6, 2012 are well above zero. They are presently at +0.248 deg C.

(14) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

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The weekly global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are warming in response to the seasonal ENSO signal and are at +0.153 deg C. As I noted a couple of times over the last few months, even though this La Niña event was not as strong as the one that occurred in 2010/11, the low for the weekly global sea surface temperatures this year are noticeably cooler than last.

(15) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE ATLANTIC-INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC DATASET SHIFTS UPWARD IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS?

Over the past three years, in so many posts it’s not practical to link them here, I’ve presented the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes that cause the blatantly obvious upward shifts in sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific data, shown above. I’ve also explained why the East Pacific shows no warming over the past 30 years. You’re welcome to use the search function on this webpage.

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.

11 Responses to May 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

Yep. according to the good and reputable, unbiased, taxpayer funded Dr Church, WE DID IT.
So bend over Bob and take your punishment like a man. I’m too busy changing my wet pants.
regards from a steamy Zhuhai.

Bob –
Thanks again for the Monthly Update.
Q: Going to the OISST data link you give, was curious if graphs were equally ‘telling’ when the center of the various ocean gyres we used instead of the large areas that you have used for sometime to show variations? I imagine you’ve plotted these centers at sometime in the past to see if there’s any ‘better view’, so to speak, of warming and cooling trends. As ‘NINO3.4’ is a stamp-sized area, would Gyre center ‘stamp-sized’ graphs offer any better or different info? Seems that the smaller Gyre Center areas would not show as much ‘static’ (so to speak) from ocean conveyor variations? (Hopefuly I haven’t found the exception to the rule that there’s no such thing as a dumb question;-)

Bob-
Thanks for your reply and, as always, your patience with a Old ‘Spring-Butt’ Question Asker. Not able to ‘see’ the animations at your link to earlier material, computer is too old too; I read the article several times and put the below graph together thinking maybe a pic is still worth a thousand words;-) Your Indian Ocean coverage above is 60S to 30N and 20E to 120E. If one were to restrict Indian Ocean coverage to Grye Center Area (say with 30S to 20S and 60E to 90E) –which is what I tried to do in the link I’ve given below– does this plot of temperature change within the Grye Only offer anthing of value that your larger area graphs are not able to capture? (Guess I’m begging the question, why such a large Indian Ocean area and not a smaller one at the center of the gyre? Obviously, I’m wondering about the size of the other ocean areas as well;-) Thanks again for your patience.

My findings only seemed worthwhile for the North Atlantic. According to my post, the SST’s at the center of the North Atlantic gyre led the rest of the gyre by 35 months. I have NOT tried to duplicate that with any other datasets. Maybe I would have had better results with the other gyres if I had found the proper centers. Or there could be so little real long-term (ship- and buoy-based) data in the other ocean basins that were looking more at infilled data and not measured data.

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NOTES ON GRAPHS

If you use one of my graphs or other illustrations, please provide a link to the post where it was found.

Also, please advise me via a comment if an illustration does not appear in a post. The image hosting site loses them occasionally. I have the illustrations on file and should be able to replace/repair them. Thanks.