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Formula One poised to end V8 era with another competitive season

March 10, 2013

Lewis Hamilton will try to make noise with Mercedes this year after racing for McLaren. Photo by LAT PHOTOGRAPHIC

Formula One's 2013 season will be remembered as the end of an era: This is the final year with 2.4-liter, normally aspirated V8 engines. Next year, 1.6-liter turbo-charged V6s arrive, possibly upsetting the balance of power in the sport.

The new engines and their associated energy-recovery systems will provide much technical intrigue, and the good news is, insiders say the cars will be both challenging to drive and exciting to watch.

However, chances are that the three V6 engine suppliers -- Ferrari, Mercedes and Renault -- will not start 2014 on

equal footing. With so many variables in the mix, we likely won't see the sort of closely packed fields we've enjoyed over the past few seasons, largely a result of rules stability and the FIA's freeze on engine development.

In such circumstances, the potential gains in performance found from technical development become ever scarcer. The good news is, this year's preseason testing suggests the pack is as close in performance as last year -- and perhaps even closer.

In other words, we should enjoy it while we can.

The first race with the new turbos is 12 months away, but the new formula will have a huge impact on this season. Teams have already had to make calls on how many resources to devote to research and development for 2014, and that will only get more obvious as the season goes on.

F1 in the modern era has become a relentless development war as the frontrunners bring new parts for every race. Those involved in the title battle have to keep pushing on the technical front all the way to the final round. This year everyone will have to switch their focus to 2014 at a much earlier stage, and that's bound to lead to compromises in the 2013 cars.

As in recent years, optimizing the aerodynamic benefits of exhausts and drag-reduction systems will be a big area of attention. Tires will be the other big factor. Pirelli concedes toward the end of last season it sometimes delivered overly conservative tire constructions, and there were even races where drivers could have gone nonstop if the rules had allowed.

So, for this year, the company will provide new tires with a revised construction and fresh compounds. They are softer throughout the range, and thus faster. Crucially, they have been designed to provide greater degradation, which means strategy will play a bigger role than last year. They also warm up quicker, a benefit to drivers such as McLaren-Mercedes' Jenson Button, who struggled often last year to get his tires into their ideal temperature range.

The 12 days of testing in Spain, at both Jerez and Barcelona, gave the teams a chance to get a handle on the new rubber, though they also had lot of other work to do, and some days were lost to wet weather. The low temperatures also meant there will still be much to learn when we get to the heat of Australia (the season opener on March 17) and Malaysia one week later. Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg topped the final two days of the test, on March 2-3.

Just to add to the challenge, Pirelli came up with four different tire combinations for the first four races, namely supersoft/medium (Australia), medium/ hard (Malaysia), soft/medium (China) and soft/hard (Bahrain). That variety will keep the teams and drivers on their toes.

So who's hot for 2013, and who's not? The simple answer is nobody knows for sure, because testing is not always a reliable guide to performance come qualifying in Melbourne. However, the general indications are that it is close, and the five top teams are all in reasonable shape—and certainly none face the sort of uphill battle that Ferrari endured with its initially awful 2012 car.

Red Bull has to start as most people's favorite, given the team has won the last three championships. It has a stable package with Renault power, and while the fight to the last round in Brazil last year was inevitably draining, no team is better at bouncing back for the start of a new season. Reigning champion Sebastian Vettel is at the top of his game, and Mark Webber finished strong last year and is very motivated.

Ferrari also has a stable package, though it could be argued the team is more likely to have paid a price for its

involvement in the 2012 title battle.

The new F138 is certainly a better starting point than last year's car was, and it looked respectable in testing. Much will depend on how well Ferrari develops it. Fernando Alonso was simply superb last year, and one assumes he will carry on where he left off—indeed, all things considered, he has to be our choice to win the title, but it will probably take some bad luck for Vettel and RBR for that to happen.

McLaren-Mercedes has undergone some changes, with Sergio Perez replacing Hamilton, and technical boss Paddy Lowe sidelined prior to an expected move to Mercedes in 2014. The MP4-28 appears to be quick, but its drivers have noted that it's a little unpredictable. Button is famous for wanting his car to feel a specific way, and the team may miss the irrepressible Hamilton's “I'll drive anything to the limit” approach.

Meanwhile, Hamilton appears to be thriving in his new environment at Mercedes. The team experienced some difficult times with unreliability in testing and uncertainty over its management structure, but there's plenty of potential. Hamilton has made no secret the W04 car needs more downforce, but if the stellar technical team finds the right direction, progress could be rapid. The fight between Hamilton and teammate Rosberg will be a fascinating aspect of the year.

Lotus had a strong 2012 season, and with Kimi Räikkönen and Romain Grosjean now both fully up to speed, the team should have a stronger start. The car has been consistently near the top in testing, but a potential weakness could be the team's ability to develop it through the season compared to rivals equipped with better resources.

It's anyone's guess as to who might be able to challenge the big five players. After launching its car late, Williams-Renault has looked good in testing, and rookie Valtteri Bottas will be worth watching, as will Pastor Maldonado, who was quick if erratic last year. Sauber believes it has an even better car than last year, and Nico Hülkenberg should get the best out of it and its Ferrari V8.

Hülkenberg is replaced at Force India by the returning Adrian Sutil, whose job was not confirmed until Feb. 28. In tandem with teammate Paul Di Resta, Sutil -- who last drove in F1 in 2011, also for Force India -- should be a good bet for regular points despite his layoff.

Scuderia Toro Rosso-Ferrari had a so-so season in 2012, but former Sauber man James Key now heads technical matters, and drivers Jean-Eric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo start this year with some good experience behind them.

Realistically, Caterham and Marussia will again be at the back, especially as both teams have gone with inexperienced drivers who bring funding with them. Caterham will field Charles Pic and Giedo van der Garde, with Marussia bringing Max Chilton and Jules Bianchi into race seats.

The hidden agenda for the tailenders and others closer to the front is that there is a huge financial squeeze. With costs certain to rise when the turbos come in, it's going to be a tough season both on and off the track.