The Ghost of Marcus Williams

As the Warriors creep closer to the trade deadline — and no closer to the playoffs — there’s one question that hangs over all armchair-GM plans for upgrading this team: what should the Warriors offer? Depending on your take on the team-as-currently-composed’s prospects, the answer to that question may range from Monta Ellis to Jeremy Lin. But there are five things that can’t be included in the discussion: the Warriors’ first round draft picks in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

On July 22, 2008, the Warriors acquired Marcus Williams in exchange for a conditional first-round draft pick. In fairness to Chris Mullin, the deal needs some context. Baron Davis had just jumped ship for the Clippers, leaving the Warriors without a true point guard. Williams had been on the All Rookie second team and was available given New Jersey’s depth at 1. The Warriors had won nearly 50 games in the prior season and expected to be in the playoff hunt the next year (this is pre-moped), meaning the conditional pick would likely be in the high teens, not the lottery. That said, a first rounder for an unproven, potentially disruptive player is a gamble (albeit one I favored taking at the time). Williams arrived out of shape, was completely undisciplined on the court and quickly fell out of Don Nelson’s rotation. The Warriors cut him on March 10, 2009 — superficially closing the book on one of Mullin’s worst transactions. And the deal was only going to get worse.

Under the original trade, the first pick that could go to the Nets was the Warriors’ 2011 first rounder, lottery protected. But then in September 2009, the team sent its 2011 second round pick to the Nets to bump the first potential year for the trade back a year to 2012 (with lower lottery restrictions). Because of the NBA’s rule requiring teams to have a first round pick in at least every other draft, the second trade freed the team up to swap its 2010 pick. Had the NJ pick come due in 2011, the 2010 pick could not have been traded. Of course, despite the “win now” objective motivating the second NJ deal, Larry Riley sat on his hands last trade deadline and ended up keeping the 2010 pick. So the flexibility purchased with the second round pick ended up being wasted, like so many assets collected during the Cohan era.

But the saga of the conditional pick still wasn’t over. Under the new deal, the Warriors are committed to sending the 2012 pick to NJ if it’s not in the top 7. If it is, the 2013 pick comes due, top 6 protected. If that pick doesn’t get moved, the 2014 pick goes, also top 6 protected. If the Warriors don’t ship that pick, then New Jersey gets the Warriors’ second rounders in 2014 and 2016.

This complex chain of contingencies leads to one very simple conclusion for the Warriors this trade deadline — all first rounders from 2011 to 2015 are off the table. The killer restriction for the Warriors is the back-to-back rule, prohibiting the trading of first rounders in consecutive years. The 2011 pick can’t be traded because the 2012 pick could be shipped out to NJ. The 2013 pick can’t be traded because if the Warriors get one of the top 7 picks in 2012, the 2013 pick will be owed to the Nets. And so on and so on, until you get to 2015. Although that pick isn’t owed to the Nets, the 2014 pick might end up being traded, barring the Warriors from moving the pick one year after it. At some point the pick will get traded to the Nets (my guess would be 2012), freeing the team of the restrictions on the back-end years. But for now, the picks are all locked up.

The bottom line? In a year when the trade value of expiring deals has been reduced by uncertainty regarding the CBA and a glut of options on the market, a first round pick would have been a nice sweetener to add to the deal. But as a result of the Marcus Williams trade, we’ve not only lost the ability to trade the 2011 pick — but also the four picks that come after it. And we paid a 2011 second rounder for the privilege.

And if you made it all the way down here through this multi-car pile-up of a transaction, all I can say is this: being a Warriors fan is not easy.

Adam Lauridsen

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Did I just see Monta let Afflallo pass him by easily and AB helped out and Afflalo handed off to Nene and Lee had to foul for a And1?

bryhsiao

Curry dragged two defenders with him and pass to Lee who then passes to DW. nice trey.

Curry no assist. but he created for it.

bryhsiao

Saint Jean is a f moron to say Curry should rotate to stop Nene in that play.

When is Barnett coming back?

Jeremy

It’s amazing to see the difference in talent between the Nuggets and Warriors. And that’s without Billups.

al oha

Did I just see Monta turn the ball over and Jeremy Lin save the basket the other way by defending the layup and receiving the offensive foul call on the Denver player?

bryhsiao

Okay Saint Jean made it up by saying Curry rotated to help on Melo and that turnover became fastbreak dunk by Monta.

Monta and DW are having a good game right now.

al oha

Does it get any worse than Fitz doing the play by play with St. Jean doing the color?

I yi yiyi yi

Sure let’s trade our current best player again, wouldn’t be the first time. Lacob I thought you might be better. I have love for Curry he is extraordinary player, but with Monta you have a true superstar and I this just unbelievable to me that so many here wants to trade him away. Nene is haveing a good year but at 29 how longer? How many Good older ( 29+) C’s are there now in the league? and Sure I like Lawson but he will he be able to put up consistent numbers? wanting to trade just to trade and shake it up does not make any sense to me. Trading should up grade not sideways Lacob should wait until summer and the rest of this season should be used to coach, train, and evaluate and then go make a run at Gasol. KEEP MONTA ELLIS trade the rest if you have to but keep our one ligit star

Jeremy

al oha

No. It does not get worse. I still can’t understand why St Jean is even around… who is interested to hear the opinion of one of the worst GMs and worst coaches in NBA history? Who wants to be forced to remember he was a major decision maker in the organization? They must have literally no one else who would take that job.

It’s all over after tonight JSL. No worry about them taking Curry+ for Melo. Hell Lawson got 6 assists to 3 t.o.s and Curry 2 assists to 3 turnovers, 1 rebound, no steals.

Monta for MVP, or that’s what I heard the fans chanting.

Hell, let’s trade Monta and gamble everything on Curry. Any blind man could see that tonight. Right?

meir34

BTW, as a sidebar. Did anyone think as I did that George Karl looked much worse than even right after the cancer treatment. I was sort of shocked to see him looking that way.

meir34

Saint was not very good as a head coach and it’s hard to judge him as GM because of Cohan’s limitations. But I’ve listened to him on the pre and post game shows all year and he knows his basketball. You could learn a lot from listening to him. He was a successful assistant coach for mucho anos and probably has forgotten more about basketball than most of us here together. It’s amazing to me to hear such nonsense. I wouldn’t want him for my coach but I’ll surely listen to his explanations and be grateful for them.

I realize that every coach is a dummy to many of the basketball geniuses here. But I suspect it is projection to keep the crap up even for a color stint on TV.

Our Team

Is Keith Smart starting to grow into the job? He’s been working with Guys like Reggie Williams and Andris overtime and it’s paying dividends. Warriors defense is improving incrementally.

TheCity

The one-note wonder strikes again.

The rare times I read a meir post, it’s deja-vu all over again!

TheCity

My favorite color guy on the pre-game, half-time, and post game shows was Nate Thurmond. Articulate, knowledgeable, polite and not full of himself.

Why they got rid of him in favor of St. Jean, I’ll never understand.

G.O.

Point guard= someone who passes first and shoots second. Someone that gets his team the ball for good , high percentage shots. Someone with great ball handling skills, court vision, and high basketball I.Q.

Monta; doesn’t pass first, and shoots all the time.
Monta constantly gets the ball and is the only one to touch it, dribbles around and forces up very low percentage shots.
Monta is not a good ball handler, he will often fumble the ball on drives, or dribble over his head on drives.
Monta puts his head down on drives to the basket, which kills his court vision.
Montas basketball I.Q. is NOT high.
Monta is NOT a point guard.
The point guard doesn’t shoot more than double everyone on the team.

G.O.

Rick Barry;
It was sure nice to hear someone that knows basketball talk during the game, instead of Fitz and St.
Rick said more in about 5 minutes, then those 2 idiots have said all year.
Everyone( almost) on this site could do a better job than Steinmetz.

bryhsiao

hey, Meir, you should be worried now that Monta showed Denver how good he is as a scoring machine. They must be calling Riley now to get Monta for Melo now. lol why pay 22M for one scoring machine when you can pay half price to get one?

Melo is so one dimensional.

I dont want Nene anymore. Nene is so bad at helping D and rebounding. He is a load on O but his D is real lacking.

AB played well tonight. Disrupted a couple Melo’s running in layups and got those rebs. AB also sat some nice picks on Afflalo for Monta so that Monta got to have a clear path to the hoop.

Curry played really tentative tonight. got a nice floater and a couple jumpers going. but he got two quick fouls in the third. but I really dont get it why those were fouls. IMO, it was pretty good D on the second one.
Nowadays, you cannot even defend chest to chest no more?

BenchExcuses

not an impressive win at all tonight….

just a game of scrimmage ball with no defense.

our center had 0 free throws and our the best free thrower in the nba got to the line 2 times.

This is why the other teams has no fear of this team and we continue to shoot away.

This team is a joke

bryhsiao

Yeah Rick Barry knows his stuffs.

He commented on 2 plays that got my attention.
He called one of Monta’s jumpers with 4 denvers on D with all our players trailing and on the perimeter : a really bad shot.

Monta got some good looks and made some real good shots and went inside.
but Monta does take some not so good shots.
Agree with Rick Barry.

Harrington shot a long 3 when no denver was near the paint. Horrible shot too. and I agree.

Mano de Nada

Actually being a Warriors fan is as easy as any self inflicted fantastic delusional state can be; after awhile it simply becomes second nature to cap on other teams and talk about draft picks in JAN. We’re the best fans in the NBA, but just not that quick on the uptake y’know? Or maybe that’s why we’re the best fans in the NBA…

Otis

G.O.,

Jim Barnett is a class act and not an idiot by any stretch.
Fitz is irritating, but not an idiot.
Gary Radnich is an idiot, “does that make sense?”

Otis

G.O.,

Apologies, didn’t realize St. Jean called the game and not Barnett.
Never mind.

earl monroe

Jules- its UDAHH and Udahhh

Jeremy

If the Warriors strike out on making a “splash deal, couldn’t they look to move B Wright for a 1st rounder a la what they did with the Marcus Williams trade but in reverse?

Wouldn’t the Hawks or the Bulls or Bucks or Magic or Blazers or Suns or Jazz be interested in Brandon Wright for a lottery-protected 1st rounder?

Meir, Meir, Meir: Montas has — for him — another great game, while Curry gets ticky-tacked by the refs. BUT . . . .

1. Monta’s defense is not only terrible, it’s getting worse. While he did tighten up a bit at the end, he was horrible most of the game. El Matador. In other words, he looks great on O, but gives it all back on D. Which is why . . .

2. Despite lighting it up with 37 points, Monta still had the worst +/- on the team — -4 — even tho he played heavy minutes, as did DWright and DLee, who were, as one might expect, positive.

So, how hard is it to see what’s REALLY going on? I guess you’re just so transfixed on offensive prowess you lose total sight of EVERYTHING else.

No surprise there, of course.

meir34

JSL what’s really going on? You pay attention to +- like a fool? Guess what? We won the game. Monta won it for us. Your hero got a lousy 2 assists to 3 turnovers. Monta not only scored all those points he made the only bucket in the last five minutes and saved another sure fire turnover that he single-handed turned into a score for us. Who gives a sheet what +- says?? Forbes with 3 points, o rebounds and 1 assist got a higher +_ than Melo did. J. Lin tied with Curry and beat Monta’s. Want another great example, Howard had one of his greatest games ever: 30 points, 19 free throws and 17 assists, last night, as his team won, and wound up with a -3 while for the LOSERS, Turner with only 1-4, 2 pts and no free throws got a higher +- score.

Search for some light out of a horrible performance by Curry again and try and knock a great one that won the game for us by every report I’ve seen, but with a +- you feebly whine, nope it was the other way around.

I hope you have a sense of humor and can laugh at yourself. This is one funny post you made.

C’mon let’s hear your let’s trade Monta chant and tell us again how turnovers by our pg, Curry don’t mean a thing as long as the +- tell us that Turner was better than Howard and Curry better than Monta and Lin better than both of them.

Someday you might want to look up the meaning of validity when talking about a statistic.

Joeseph

Larry Riley pushed for this deal, Mullin was already de-balled at that point. Yet Riley is still guiding the ship. Pathetic…simply pathetic

I do consider all of the ideas youâ€™ve offered on your post. Theyâ€™re really convincing and can definitely work. Still, the posts are too brief for beginners. May just you please lengthen them a bit from next time? Thanks for the post.