Abortion Issue Clouds Outlook for GOP in 1990 Series: Campaign '90. Part 22 of a Series

John Dillin, writer of The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor

ABORTION has become the "hot button" issue of the 1990 elections.

In Iowa, the abortion debate has dominated the race for governor
and could eventually shape the outcome of a close contest for the US
Senate.

In Louisiana, the state senate is expected to vote as early as
Monday on the toughest anti-abortion law in the United States. The
Louisiana House already approved it overwhelmingly.

In New York, a Roman Catholic cardinal stunned Catholic
politicians by indicating they could be excommunicated for
pro-choice policies.

All this political heat makes Republicans sweat. They've got a
lot at stake this year politically - in Congress, governors' races,
and hundreds of local campaigns. The abortion issue could explode
Republicans' plans: Over the past decade they have wrapped
themselves tightly in policies that were adamantly anti-abortion.
George Bush ran for the White House on a plank that called for a
constitutional amendment outlawing abortion.

But the political climate changed overnight last July 3 when the
US Supreme Court, voting 5-4, upheld a Missouri law restricting
access to abortions.

The effect of that court decision on public opinion was dramatic.
Anti-abortion forces have been weakened, while pro-choice forces
have grown stronger.

A recent Gallup poll tells the story. It found "the sharpest
shift in 15 years" on the abortion question. The number of people
who now oppose abortion under all circumstances fell to the lowest
level on record - just 12 percent.

Politicians can read polls, and a number of Republicans are
backing away from the adamant, anti-abortion positions that were
once their party's hallmark.

New York Republicans made a dramatic reversal in the past month.
Their new state platform advocates a clear pro-choice position. It
says that government should avoid "regulating people in their
personal affairs and lives," and calls for supporting people's
"privacy and reproductive rights."

Anti-abortion forces are counterattacking, but with mixed
results.

Last week, Cardinal John O'Connor, archbishop of New York,
created a furor when he appeared to threaten Catholic politicians
with excommunication if they supported abortion. In a 19,000-word
article, Cardinal O'Connor wrote that Roman Catholics who "help to
multiply abortion by advocating legislation supporting abortion or
by making public funds available for abortion ... are at the risk of
excommunication. …

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