MBS RECAP: Is It Over?

The titular question could be taken two ways . Is the selling pressure in bonds over? Is the "low rate environment" that's been in effect since mid-2011 over? The answers, in order are "probably not" and "for now." To be fair to the "low rate environment," that's arguably been over since 10yr yields broke above 2.5% in a serious and sustained way. They've only done that one other time since moving below and that was the 6-7 months following the taper tantrum. I've frequently suggested that mid-2012 was the truest confluence of low rate motivations and that mid-2016's drop in rates was more of a pain trade for everyone betting on higher rates (Brexit was the scapegoat). If you look past the taper tantrum and the brexit rally, we've…(read more)