Well sort of. But tonight — unlike last Wednesday’s melt-down – they decided to be “professional”. Their right leaning counter-parts who declared the bullying Romney a clear victor on “style” were now reduced to complaining that Biden was too assertive. And last week scowling bad, but now smiling is out.

And if the waters were not muddied enough, Nate Silver decides –within an hour, before the dust is even settled – to report these two “polls” as “evidence” of a Biden “hold”. No clear winner – no probable poll impact.

In this Election Cycle, it is increasingly clear that, for whatever reason, media narratives and polls are self re -enforcing. Media headlines report polls without context and/or analysis. Shabby pollsters ( and there are plenty this cycle) use polling cycles to drive the narrative, and long standing pollsters may find shifts in opinion that are shaped by media narratives. Media reports that back. Feedback-loop..

.. the polling I saw suggests that viewers polled during the debate thought it was about even; viewers polled right after the debate though Romney had won; and viewers polled a little later still thought it was a rout. I can’t think of any good explanation for this aside from the effect of the talking heads right after the debate and the firestorm of liberal criticism that quickly turned into a feeding frenzy of outrage. And generally speaking, I’d say there’s plenty of historical evidence that media coverage of presidential debates has much more impact than the debates themselves.

A closer look at polling outfits, polling internals re sampling screens and demographics indicated that the “debate bump” is mots likely the result of shifting methodologies in combination with an energized GOP base .

Questions to Askand A Word of Caution

This election season, the media – polling narrative seems more closely linked than ever in my memory. Just me?? Coincidence?? Post-Citizens United Dark Money?? Who knows??

Just pay closer attention..

In the midst of media-driven narratives and the polling chaos, here are some questions to ask about every reported poll:

Who is this outfit?? This season seems to have a cavalcade of questionable outfits who are reporting out results using dubious data.. See Gravis Marketing, Exhibit A.

Gaps have persisted all cycle between the National Popular vote estimates and the state level polling data. The past week has brought wild and rapid swings that seem driven by data that may fail to capture the reality of the ground.

This leads to more questions:

Are the poll tracking models relying on polling samples that under-represent key segments of the Electorate?

Do the models presume that “outliers” are randomly distributed in all directions and will cancel themselves out?? What if they don’t? What if noise becomes the signal?

How effective are predictive models if the input data is foundationally flawed? Is it time for somebody to start more carefully examining the entrails of these polls?

Do these models rely too heavily on polls while missing other data re ground games, field offices, differences in targeted state campaigns, the impact of advertizing dollars etc?

Do these models inadequately account for other data such economic indicators, Presidential approval ratings and more?

Hay Miss Nancy, thanks for always bring the truth.
People cant forget that RACE MATTER .
And if you forget they will always try and hide the truth.
Check this youtube cliphttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvTIphPnDM8

and yes white supremacy is the bad root of this all.. more on that soon

EricBogan

Nancy, thank you so much for this important piece. What I am most troubled by regarding these polls and the false narratives they engender, is the willingness of too many on our side of the isle to accept these national polls, with their LV/RV screens that are WAY beyond historical trends(differences has been only 2.5 percent, not the 7-10 pt. swings we are witnessing this election cycle)as the gospel. These polls are simply not reflective of what’s happening on the ground, esp. in the ‘battleground states’.

This is superbly done Nancy. You’ve outdone yourself. The media and polling groups have long been in bed with each other in order to drive manufactured narratives, ratings and profit. If we received more transparency in how the polls are conducted, most of the polling outfits would be out of business. They are businesses and they’ve got to justify their existence. Excellently done. Going to this a second look when I get home.

@Seeta t have to say seeta that read 538 every day as well as all the comments on every post., there are a growing Daily!! – set of questions – like i have raised in this post — about the soundness of various poll fundametals and the prediction models which rely on them

those who want up to the minute analysis should follow @JeffersonObama on twitter

EricBogan

@nancy a heitzeg @Seeta @JeffersonObama Nancy, I agree @ Jefferson Obama,he really cuts thru the b.s. and drills down the polling like no other. BTW, I really don’t believe that one debate can be a ‘game changer’ as alot of these pollsters and MSM types are saying. I stand by my orig. comments re: facts on the ground.

@EricBogan @Seeta i am happy to say as i look around that a growing number of people the sentiment about “The Black Swan” debate..

it just doesn’t not wash,, the more ??s asked the more awareness the better

and thnaks again for being here Eric

EricBogan

@nancy a heitzeg@Seeta No prob Nancy, I love your posts on TPV. I will leave you with a Jefferson Obama tweet:
Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama
Pollsters acknowledge Obama has a huge Registered Voter advantage in battleground states but wipe out 7 Point leads with +8 LV Screens

@nancy a heitzeg @JeffersonObama totally agree, Nancy — refreshing to see folks questioning the polls — I’ve seen it as well on MSM sites like NYT and WP. Much gratitude for this analysis and expose — “Citizens United” and a failed fourth estate have created the Romney ascendancy and reinforced oligarchy.

It is all about GET OUT THE VOTE from this point forward.

Historically, debates have not impacted or transformed the race. MSM milking political theater (and that’s what it is) to sell soap — nothing else.

KayWhitlock

Thank you, Nancy. This is like a house of mirrors. In all the elections I’ve been through, and I’ve been through a lot, I’ve never seen anything quite like this. I do believe that Koch, Rove & Co. are making an astonishing effort to drive the media narratives. And none of the MSM or major polling folks or interpreters are tearing out the guts of the poll samples and internals to see if it makes sense.

For example, a new Mason Dixon (!) poll shows Romney up big in Florida. But look closely, and they also say Latinos are breaking for Romney – and that, my friends, is not possible. Also, the Latino sample is virtually all Cuban American. Not true for the state as a whole.

My question: how does any of this intersect with voter suppression efforts? I think we can’t know for awhile.