000
FXUS63 KARX 021112
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
612 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
OH THE FUN OF PREDICTING SUMMER TIME CONVECTION. LACK OF ACTIVITY
ALONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING HAS ALLOWED WARM FRONT TO LIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN EXPECTED. WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FORMING
OVERNIGHT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ELEVATED STORMS FORM NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WITH LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
DAY BREAK WITH MODEST MIXED LAYERCAPE AND ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
REGENERATION OF STORMS.
THIS WARM FRONT PLACEMENT DOES HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WEATHER LATER
TODAY AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED LEADING TO HIGHER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES /2500-3500 J/KG/ AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COMBINE THIS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME QUESTION ON WHERE MAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BUT WEAK
PERFORMING MESOSCALE MODELS TEND TO HINT AT STORMS FORMING EAST OF
AREA AND COULD BACK BUILD TO THE WEST INTO HIGHER CAPE REGION. THIS
LEADS TO VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES...BUT
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION VERY PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THREAT AREA QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SO RAIN
THREATS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO MATCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
SHIFT OF UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO WILL PUSH BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAKE FOR A FEW QUIET DAYS TO START THE WEEK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. DROPPED FAVORED COLD BOGS A FEW CATEGORIES AT
NIGHT AS WELL.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
FROM MID WEEK ON. HINTS THAT AMPLIFICATION IN FLOW TO THE WEST COULD
BREAK DOWN AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...SMALL RAIN THREATS REMAIN
LITTERED IN OUTER FORECAST PERIODS. STRONGEST POTENTIAL WAVE APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF STORMS WITH INSTABILITY RESIDING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
APPEARS ISOLATEDSHRA/TS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE NOW WELL INTO WI.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FIRE A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS SHRA/TS ACTIVITY STAYING OUTSIDE OF
THE TAFS SITES...SO DID NOT CARRY ANY TS MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW. PLAN ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z. THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SHRA/TS WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...DAS