The evolution of the Puerto Rican vote

11/29/12 2:46 PM EST

The out-migration of New Yorkers to Florida has altered politics in both states for decades and the trend appears to be continuing.

This time it's Puerto Ricans moving from New York City to Central Florida, a demographic shift that is rippling across both the New York City mayor's race and Florida politics.

Only a portion of the Puerto Ricans who have moved to the Orlando area are from New York (many arrive from the island and are eligible to vote right away), but it's enough to have left a mark in both places.

With a mayoral race on the horizon in 2013, Ed Morales of City Limits has a terrific piece (one in a 5-part series) that looks at the demographic shifts among New York’s Puerto Rican, Dominican and Mexican groups and how it’s influenced city politics – and Latino political aspirations -- in recent years.

Since the defeat of Fernando Ferrer in 2005, where he won the Democratic nomination convincingly (something Herman Badillo had never done) yet suffered a devastating loss to the incumbent Bloomberg, New York's Latino political apparatus has been unable to identify a credible candidate for mayor, or even citywide office.

Much of this can be attributed to a few factors: a shift in the city's demographics that have gradually eroded the power of Puerto Ricans, long the city's dominant Latino group; a decline of the Bronx Democratic machine (meaning there are no Latino county leaders at this time); and the subsequent consolidation of power by Latino politicians to hold onto local offices and bases of support rather than developing broader appeal.

Since 2000, the percentage of Puerto Ricans in New York vis a vis the rest of the Latino groups has dropped considerably, even though they are still the largest group. Puerto Ricans dropped by 11.2 percent to a total population of 723,631, while Dominicans jumped 8.2 percent to 576,701 and the Mexican population increased 73.7 percent to 319,263.

As Puerto Rican clout has declined in New York, it’s grown in places like Orlando’s Orange County, once a battleground but now becoming comfortably Democratic thanks in part to the in-flow of Democratic-voting Puerto Rican voters (not to mention African-American growth).

Orange County’s newly-minted legislative delegation today announced that its first gathering will be on Dec. 17, and once seated, it’s new complexion will have gone from deep red to blue.

Orange’s last lawmaking crew was made up of 12 Republicans and four Democrats. Now Democrats hold eight elected posts, and Republicans just six…

Aside from carrying more blue Democrats into a red Tallahassee run by Republicans, the new Orange delegation is also decidedly green. Of its nine House members, five are rookie Democrats: Randolph Bracy, Karen Castor Dentel, Joe Saunders, Linda Stewart and Victor Torres.

The national implications of Orange County’s evolution were apparent on Election Day as President Barack Obama won 59 percent there. Between the Democratic margins in Orange County and in neighboring Osceola County, where there has also been significant growth in the Puerto Rican population, it might be fair to say that the state’s famed I-4 Corridor now no longer qualifies as a swing area.