Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Demise Of Financial Bloggers?

Josh Brown ran an article today as to why financial bloggers have gone down in numbers. I found it quite funny and could not resist quoting it here:

“There seem to be fewer regularly-updated, high quality financial blogs these days. Many have simply disappeared or have gone inactive. And very few new ones of note have come along to replace them.

But why?”

Then he goes on to give some theories:

Many bloggers have simply been so completely dead wrong about the post-crisis period we've been in (Hyperinflation! Depression! Social Unrest! Hoard Water and Dry Goods!) that they simply have no audience left. Keep in mind that many of the 2008-2010 generation of bloggers were misanthropes who had been rooting for a collapse all along. They came out of the woodwork and began blogging motivated by a mixture of I-Told-You-So schadenfreude and the desire to predict the next crisis, which was obviously an imminent thing. Only it didn't happen (I know, I know, any day now). And having blown all of their personal credibility on failed Cassandra-ism, having recognized what a horrendous disservice they've done to those who've heeded them, they've simply moved on. Many went to Twitter instead where there is a less permanent record of their bullshit.

But the biggest rant blog is still going strong.

That brings me to my post. The collapse of USA is not yet imminent. And come to think of it, so far it is just a 50 point correction in SPX. But already folks are behaving as if the end is near. And when the real stuff comes up, there would not be many to take advantage of it.

We all know the fundamentals sucks and earnings are crappy. And retail has started buying puts like never before. It happens without fail. Retail will sell at the bottom and buy at the top. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 10 options exchanges ended at 1.05, with roughly 7.46 million calls and 7.86 million puts traded.

My 2 cent contrarian thinking:

VIX closed outside its BB today , 1st time after April 2012.

And SPX closed 2 Standard Deviation below mean, outside BB.

If we see a green day tomorrow, it might be considered as a VIX buy set up.

I do not expect a rally from tomorrow; rather I expect a sideways movement from here till end of the month.

One of the things I follow with interest (apart from my cycles) is the COT Eurodollar indicator as shown by Tom McClellan. He has some complex formula whereby he moves the whole thing ahead by 12 months. I do not understand how it works, except it gives a clue to what the Banksters are thinking and where the money is going. Few days back,the following chart was shared in SHJ’s blog by one of his readers.

So the Boyz have planned all the ups and downs all along!

What I like most about this chart is that it matches with my cycle analysis. It also agrees with the Bradley dates. So we may have to wait a bit more for the Armageddon. Don’t buy the dry foods yet.

At least I have no emotional trauma to bear because I am on the sideline. So I leave you with some thoughts and cautions. It’s raining here in Toronto. The fall leaves are almost gone. They say that winter will be difficult this year and I still have not been able to get in Nat.Gas. It refuses to give a sell signal. But I am patient.