Estimated Population of Coastal and Christchurch City, 2013-2017 (at 30 June annually)

Area

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

% change 2013-2017

Coastal

24,200

24,400

24,300

24,700

24,800

2.5%

Christchurch City

356,700

361,900

367,800

374,900

381,500

7%

Note: The estimated resident population at 30 June 2013 differs from the 5 March 2013 census count for the following reasons: The estimate takes into account residents missed by the census (net undercount); it INCLUDES residents temporarily overseas on census night; and it takes into account population change (births, deaths and migration) between March and June of the same year.

Projected population: 2013 to 2043

This ward's population is projected to increase from an estimated 24,200 at 30 June 2013 (base-year) to 24,900 by 30 June 2043. This is an overall increase of 2.9 percent.

Annual growth since 2013 has been higher than anticipated for this ward, and the estimated 2016 population (24,700) has already exceeded the projected 2018 population (24,600).

For Christchurch City as a whole, the population is projected to increase by 22 percent over the same period, from 356,700 to 436,800.

Expand the 'Age' topic heading below to see population projections by age.

Population of Coastal and Christchurch City: Estimated (2013-base) and Projected (2018-2043)

Area

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

Coastal

24,200

24,600

24,900

25,100

25,200

25,100

24,900

Christchurch City

356,700

379,400

393,100

406,100

417,800

428,000

436,800

Population projections use population estimates (at 30 June 2013) as a starting point, and are an indication of future demographic change based on assumptions about future demographic behaviour. The medium series is considered by Statistics New Zealand to be the most suitable for assessing future population change.

Further information about population data

Population statistics produced by Statistics New Zealand include census counts, population estimates and population projections.

Note: Includes all people who stated each ethnic group, whether as their only ethnic group or as one of several. Where a person reported more than one ethnic group, they have been counted in each applicable group. As a result percentages do not add up to 100. MELAA = Middle Eastern, Latin American and African. The vast majority of people counted in 'Other Ethnicity' recorded ''New Zealander'' on their census form.

Birthplace

17 percent of people in Coastal ward were born overseas, compared with 22 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

For people born overseas who are now living in Coastal ward, the most common birthplace region was the United Kingdom (1,848 people), compared with the United Kingdom for people born overseas in all of Christchurch City.

Relationship status

35 percent of people aged 15 years and over living in Coastal ward have never married, 45 percent are married, and 20 percent are separated, divorced or widowed.

Regardless of legal marital status, 61 percent of this ward's adult population are currently in a relationship, compared with 58 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

Qualifications

Total population aged 15 years and over

In 2013, 77 percent of people aged 15 years and over in Coastal ward had a formal qualification, compared with 80 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

In Coastal ward, 15 percent of people aged 15 years and over held a bachelor's degree or higher, compared with 21 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

Highest Qualification (people aged 15 years and over), 2013

Work

Total population aged 15 years and over

In 2013, the unemployment rate in Coastal ward was 4.9 percent for people aged 15 years and over, compared with 5.1 percent for all of Christchurch City.

The most common occupational group in this ward was 'Professionals' (19%), and 'Professionals' was also the most common occupational group in Christchurch City (23%).

3,330 people's place of work was located in Coastal ward. This equated to 2.1 percent of employed people who had a Christchurch City workplace address, regardless of whether or not they were Christchurch residents.

Occupation (employed people aged 15 years and over), 2013

Income and Deprivation

Personal income

For people aged 15 years and over, the median personal income for residents living in Coastal ward was $30,300 in 2013. This compares with a median of $29,800 for all of Christchurch City.

35 percent of people aged 15 years and over in this ward have an annual income of $20,000 or less, compared with 36 percent of people for Christchurch City as a whole.

In Coastal ward, 26 percent of people aged 15 years and over have an annual income of more than $50,000, compared with 27 percent of people in Christchurch City.

In this ward, 18 percent of people aged 15 years and over are receiving a means tested benefit (or other government transfers excluding superannuation). This compares with 17 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

Personal Income (people aged 15 years and over), 2013

Deprivation

NZDep2013(external link) is a good indicator of small area socioeconomic deprivation, and it combines nine variables from the 2013 census.

NZDep2013 provides a deprivation score for each meshblock in New Zealand (a meshblock is generally the size of a street block in urban areas, containing approximately 80 people).

The scale of deprivation ranges from 1 to 10:

1 represents the areas with the least deprived scores.

10 represents the areas with the most deprived scores.

Nationally, equal proportions of the population (about 10%) live in each decile.

Relative to the rest of Christchurch City, Coastal ward has slightly lower levels of deprivation. A high proportion of the ward's population live in meshblocks that have mid-point NZDep scores.

In Coastal ward, around 8 percent of this ward's population live in the 'most deprived' areas (i.e. deciles 9 and 10), compared with 12 percent of all of Christchurch City's population.

Around 14 percent of this ward's population live in the 'least deprived' areas (i.e. deciles 1 and 2), compared with 26 percent of all of Christchurch City's population.

The 2013 deprivation index(external link) is developed by researchers at the University of Otago, and combines nine variables from the 2013 census which reflect dimensions of socio-economic deprivation. Deprivation scores apply to areas rather than individual people. The deprivation index is developed with three principal purposes in mind:

Resource allocation: For example, indexes of deprivation have a long history of being used in capitation funding formulas for primary health care services (the population-based funding formula for District Health Boards) and in funding formulas for social services in other sectors (e.g. school decile rankings).

Research: Indexes of deprivation have application in research in a variety of settings such as health and other social services. For example, in the health sector, many researchers use small-area indexes to describe the relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and health outcomes; increasing levels of deprivation are associated with higher mortality rates, and higher rates of many diseases.

Advocacy: Indexes of deprivation are used by community groups and community-based service providers to describe the populations they serve, and to advocate for extra resources for community-based services.

Dwellings

Number of private occupied dwellings counted

In 2013, there were 9,027 private occupied dwellings in Coastal ward. This represents 6.9 percent of all the city's private occupied dwellings.

This is a decrease of 1,842 occupied dwellings, or -17 percent, since the 2006 census.

For Christchurch City as a whole, the number of private occupied dwellings decreased from 134,730 in 2006 to 130,430 in 2013, a decrease of 3.2 percent.

Number of unoccupied dwellings counted

There were 2,007 unoccupied dwellings in Coastal ward. This is an increase of 1,503 unoccupied dwellings, or 298 percent, since the 2006 census.

For Christchurch City as a whole, the number of unoccupied dwellings increased by 88 percent, from 9,440 in 2006 to 17,780 in 2013.

Households

Household composition

In 2013, one-family households made up 68 percent of all households in Coastal ward. For Christchurch City as a whole, one-family households made up 66 percent of all households.

In this ward, there were 2,151 one-person households making up 25 percent of all households. In Christchurch City, one-person households made up 26 percent of all households.

In total, there were 8,970 households counted in this ward in 2013.

The average household size in this ward is 2.5 people, compared with an average of 2.5 people per household for all of Christchurch City.

Household Composition, 2013

Families

Family type

'Couples with children' made up 41 percent of all families in Coastal ward, compared with 40 percent of all families for the whole of Christchurch City.

'Couples without child(ren)' made up 39 percent of all families in this ward, compared with 43 percent of all families for the whole of Christchurch City.

'One parent with child(ren)' families made up 20 percent of families in this ward, while this family type made up 17 percent of families for Christchurch City as a whole.

Family Type, 2013

Phone and Internet Access

In 2013, 78 percent of households in Coastal ward had access to the Internet, compared with 79 percent of households in Christchurch City.

In this ward, 85 percent of households had access to a cellphone, compared with 84 percent of households for Christchurch City as a whole.

Transport

Access to motor vehicles

In 2013, 17 percent of households in Coastal ward had access to three or more motor vehicles, compared with 17 percent of all households in Christchurch City.

6.5 percent of households in this ward had no motor vehicle access, compared with 7.9 percent of all households in Christchurch City.

Main means of travel to work

70 percent of employed people aged 15 years or over living in Coastal ward drove a car, truck or van to work (private or company vehicle). This compares with 65 percent for all of Christchurch City.

A further 3.1 percent of workers were a passenger in a car, truck, van or company bus, compared with 3.3 percent for all of Christchurch City.

3.2 percent of workers took a public bus to work, compared with 3.1 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

3.4 percent of workers rode a bicycle to work, compared with 5.8 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

1.5 percent walked or jogged, compared with 3.8 percent for Christchurch City as a whole.

Housing

Home ownership

In Coastal ward in 2013, 70 percent of households in occupied private dwellings owned the dwelling they lived in (or held it in a family trust).

For Christchurch City as a whole, this figure was 65 percent.

Renter households

In Coastal ward, 30 percent of households in occupied private dwellings did not own the dwelling they lived in.

For Christchurch City as a whole, this figure was 35 percent.

For households in this ward who rented the dwelling that they lived in, the median weekly rent paid was $300. This compared with $300 for Christchurch City.

For households in this ward who rented, 87 percent had a private sector landlord, compared with 83 percent for Christchurch City as a whole. The remainder of dwellings were either owned by the Christchurch City Council (3.2%) or by the state (9.6%).

Information about data used

Census, as at 5 March 2013

The most recent census was held on Tuesday, 5 March 2013 and the next census will take place in March 2018.

The Census of Population and Dwellings(external link) is the official count of people and dwellings in New Zealand undertaken by Statistics New Zealand. It provides a snapshot of our society at a point in time. Information from the census is used to help make decisions about which services are needed and where they should be, such as hospitals, kōhanga reo, schools, roads, public transport, and recreational facilities. Census information is used by councils, community groups, iwi, and businesses to plan for the future.

Note: This time series is irregular. Because the 2011 Census was cancelled after the Canterbury earthquake on 22 February 2011, the gap between this census and the last one is seven years. The change in the data between 2006 and 2013 may be greater than in the usual five-year gap between censuses. Be careful when comparing trends.

This data has been randomly rounded to protect confidentiality. Individual figures may not add up to totals, and values for the same data may vary in different text, tables and graphs. For areas with small populations, the data may not look as expected because of this rounding.

Population Projections, 2013(base)-2043

These population projections have the estimated resident population at 30 June 2013 as a base, and cover the period to 2043 at five-year intervals. The ward projections were part of a customised dataset prepared for Christchurch City Council in 2016 by Statistics New Zealand. The figures for Christchurch City were released in February 2015, and the ward projections are based on this release.

In some instances, annual population growth since 2013 has been higher than projected, and by 2016 some wards had already exceeded the projected 2018 population.

Updated figures for Christchurch City only were released in December 2016(external link), which supersede the February 2015 release figures. Ward figures were not updated and because they are based on the February 2015 release city-wide total, all figures presented in the above sections (including for Christchurch City total) are at February 2015.

These demographic projections are not predictions. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in the dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences.

Future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration and their determinants are uncertain, so Statistics NZ derives a range of projections. However, because of space restrictions, only the mid-range projection is given for each. In general, the mid-range projection conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns.

The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war, catastrophe, and major government decisions (eg changes to immigration policy, changes to age of eligibility for national superannuation) that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and the projections are updated every 2–3 years to include new demographic evidence and developments to methods.

Deprivation Index, 2013

The 2013 deprivation index(external link) is developed by researchers at the Department of Public Health, University of Otago (Wellington). It combines nine variables from the 2013 census which reflect dimensions of socio-economic deprivation. Deprivation scores apply to areas rather than individual people. The deprivation index is developed with three principal purposes in mind:

Resource allocation: For example, indexes of deprivation have a long history of being used in capitation funding formulas for primary health care services (the population-based funding formula for District Health Boards) and in funding formulas for social services in other sectors (e.g. school decile rankings).

Research: Indexes of deprivation have application in research in a variety of settings such as health and other social services. For example, in the health sector, many researchers use small-area indexes to describe the relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and health outcomes; increasing levels of deprivation are associated with higher mortality rates, and higher rates of many diseases.

Advocacy: Indexes of deprivation are used by community groups and community-based service providers to describe the populations they serve, and to advocate for extra resources for community-based services.

Profile Areas

These 2014 profiles are a record of the community at the point in time they were compiled (November 2014), so some information may now be outdated. Profiles include core demographics, community infrastructure, pre and post earthquake issues, and community resilience.