WINTER
CONDITIONS IN THE U.S.—
UNUSUAL WARMTH IN THE WEST, COLD IN THE EAST
January Global Average Temperature Third Warmest on Record

February
21, 2003 — The first
two months of the winter saw average to below average temperatures
in the East, and unusual warmth in the western United States, according
to NOAA scientists. Near record dryness
occurred in January following a much wetter-than-average December for
the contiguous United States. The global average surface temperature was
the third warmest on record for January. (Click NOAA image to
view national and global data.)

NOAA scientists
from the National Climatic
Data Center in Asheville, N.C., report that the average temperature
for the contiguous United States in January (based on preliminary data)
was 32.9 degrees F (0.5 degrees C), which was 2.0 degrees F above the
1895-2002 mean, but well below the record warm January of 1953 when the
average temperature was 37.3 degrees F (2.9 degrees C). Conditions in
the East contrasted sharply with those in the West. High pressure over
the western United States and an atmospheric flow pattern that brought
arctic air into the eastern United States resulted in below average temperatures
in the East and record or near-record warmth in the West. Although the
contrast was not as great, a similar pattern of temperatures occurred
in December, with a nationally averaged temperature of 2.3 degrees F above
the long-term average.

The Southwest
and West regions of the country had their warmest January on record while
January was the second warmest on record in the Northwest Region. On a
statewide basis, Nevada and Utah had their warmest January on record,
and statewide average temperatures were second warmest in California,
Oregon and Arizona. The statewide January temperature for Alaska was 6.7
degrees F (3.7 degrees C) above the 1971-2000 average.

In the East,
snow and ice storms accompanied the cold temperatures in some areas. From
4 to 12 inches (10-30 cm) of snow fell across North Carolina on January
23, leaving 3 to 4 foot (90 - 120 cm) high snow drifts on the Outer Banks.
The state was affected by a severe ice storm the previous month that left
well over one million people without electricity. Heavy snows also fell
in parts of the Northeast, where Syracuse, N.Y., had more than 100 inches
(254 cm) of seasonal snowfall by the end of January. Syracuse normally
receives 112 inches (285 cm) of snow each year. The average temperature
for the December-January two-month period in the Northeast was 2.5 degrees
F (1.4 degrees C) below the long-term average. These temperatures contrasted
sharply with the previous winter, which was the warmest on record for
the region.

December
2002 was the ninth wettest December on record for the contiguous United
States, but extremely dry conditions followed as 2003 began, and January
was the second driest such month since 1895. The most anomalously dry
region for the two-month period stretched from Colorado to Minnesota,
Wisconsin and Michigan. The warmth and lack of snowfall in the upper Midwest
adversely affected winter recreation and entertainment including winter
festivals, snowmobiling and skiing. In January, 39 states were significantly
drier than average with Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida and Minnesota having
their driest January on record. Eighteen other states were much drier
than average, and the only states with significantly above average precipitation
were Washington and Idaho.

The combination
of below average precipitation and anomalous warmth in the western United
States, which followed several years of below average precipitation and
drought, led to persistent or worsening drought conditions throughout
much of the region. Moderate to extreme drought covered 75 percent of
the western United States at the end of January, based on the Palmer
Drought Index*. The dry conditions
have forced many ranchers to sell livestock because of the added expense
and difficulty in obtaining feed, according to the U.S. Department of
Agriculture. Seasonal snow pack levels were also very low throughout much
of the West, raising concerns about the prospects for even more widespread
and severe drought in the summer of 2003.

Globe
The average global surface temperature for combined land and ocean surfaces
during January 2003 (based on preliminary data) was 1.0 degree F (0.6
degrees C) above the 1880-2002 long-term mean, the third-warmest January
since 1880 (the beginning of reliable instrumental records). The warmest
January on record occurred in 2002, followed by 1998. Since 1900, global
January surface temperatures have risen at a rate of 1.0 degree F/century
(0.6 degrees C/century), but the rate has increased to approximately three
times the century-scale trend since 1976.

Mature El
Niño conditions continued in January, but there are indications
that El Niño is weakening, according to the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center. These indications include a decrease in
sea-surface temperature anomalies of as much as 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees
C) in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Some of the
most anomalously cold land surface temperatures during January occurred
in Nepal, Bangladesh, and northern India, where a cold outbreak led to
hundreds of deaths. This contrasts with temperatures across much of Canada
and parts of central Asia, where January mean temperatures were more than
9 degrees F (5 degrees C) above average. Daytime maximum temperatures
exceeding 105 degrees F (40 degrees C) were common in southeastern Australia
in late January, the middle of the summer season in this Southern Hemisphere
country. The extremely warm temperatures and a continued lack of precipitation
resulted in worsening drought conditions and widespread wildfires that
destroyed more than 500 homes in Canberra alone.

The NOAA
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA
Satellite and Information Services) is the nation’s primary source
of space-based and surface-based meteorological and climate data. NOAA
Satellite and Information Services operates the nation's environmental
satellites, which are used for weather forecasting, climate monitoring
and other environmental applications such as fire detection, ozone monitoring
and sea surface temperature measurements.

*The
Palmer Drought Index uses numerical values derived from weather and climate
data to classify moisture conditions throughout the contiguous United
States and includes drought categories on a scale from mild to moderate,
severe and extreme.NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic
security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather
and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of
the nation’s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.
S. Department of Commerce.