Eurozone Industry

Eurozone: Industrial output deteriorates in October

December 12, 2013

In October, industrial production contracted a seasonally-adjusted 1.1% over the previous month, according to data released by Eurostat on 12 December. The reading marked a deterioration over the 0.2% drop recorded in September and exceeded the 0.3% contraction the market had expected.

At a country level, Ireland (-11.6% month-on-month) and Malta (-7.4% mom) were the region's worst performers. The dismal performance of the Irish industrial sector largely reflects a strong deterioration in the all-important pharmaceutical sector as patent expiration on top-selling drugs (the so-called "patent cliff") is dragging down pharmaceutical sales. At the other end of the spectrum, Estonia (+1.1% mom) and Italy (+0.5% mom) recorded the best results. Industrial output dropped in the three remaining major regional economies (Germany: -1.2% mom; Spain: -0.8% mom; France: -0.3% mom).

On an annual basis, industrial production expanded 0.2%, which mirrored the 0.2% expansion registered in September and marked a second consecutive positive reading. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production rose from minus 1.9% in September to minus 1.6% in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production contracting 1.0% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014, panelists see industrial production rebounding to a 1.8% expansion, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection.

Author:Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions

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