US ELECTION RESULT TO DOMINATE COP22 UN CLIMATE SUMMIT...

The next round of talks aimed at weaning the world off coal, oil and gas start in Morocco next week, but will be overshadowed by the White House race...

After a year of celebrating the Paris climate agreement, the hangover is about to kick in for the 195 countries who helped deliver the deal last December.

It’s one thing to sign off on a piece of paper that says you need to limit warming to well below 2C, quite another to see policies implemented at national and regional levels to make it happen.

The COP22 summit in Marrakech, Morocco will be an early taster of the appetite governments have to meet what is a huge challenge: decarbonising the global economy and ensuring we meet a goal of zero net emissions in the second half of the century.

If you think that’s a long way off, chew on this: coal power plants built now can happily run for 40 years, major ships for 20. What happens now has consequences. So where are we a year on?

So plenty for COP22 to get stuck in to, and it will start on a high, as the Paris Agreement on climate change comes into force on 4 November.

The party will be brief: all eyes will be on the US elections on 8 November. Ignore anyone who says this won’t affect the Paris deal: they are wrong.

A Donald Trump presidency means all bets are off. The billionaire isn’t a big believer in man-made global warming and wants the US to boost its use of fossil fuels.

Hillary Clinton is likely to follow Barack Obama’s climate plan, no shock given the man running her campaign – John Podesta – was the architect of the White House’s current strategy.

This means the first couple of days in Marrakech will be cagey. Do not expect progress on fundamental issues like transparency rules, climate finance cash or discussions on tougher pre-2020 carbon cuts to deliver much until the result is clear.

Instead we’ll have the usual platitudes as the talks open on the 7th, and then watch 194 countries collectively hold their breath as the US public heads to the polls.

If Trump wins prepare for huge pushback against any attempt to nix the deal from the current US administration. China and the UN’s climate body have also indicated they’re ready for a scrap.

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