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GAME CHANGE! Momentum could bring 6-3 gay-marriage decision -- Edward-Isaac Dovere: “Break out the rainbow flags and wedding bands, say gay marriage advocates: As this year’s term ends, they now predict that they’ll be celebrating a Supreme Court decision at the end of the next one — or at latest, 2016’s — fully legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide. Their optimism marks a sharp turn from two years ago, when many LGBT advocates were wary of rushing to the Supreme Court with a gay marriage legalization case, worried that they’d get there too quickly, get ruled against, and set the movement back years. …

“They plan to use the same kind of coordinated legal and public relations strategy that’s led them to 16 out of 16 victories in lower courts, including Tuesday’s in Kentucky, where a district judge appointed by President George H.W. Bush struck down the state’s gay marriage ban. Those decisions, along with movement in states that have legalized marriage legislatively, have created momentum. But they’ve also created an unusually pockmarked legal landscape that has different marriage laws state to state, even in the same region. It’s the sort of situation, many believe, that just might motivate the Supreme Court to step in and establish one set law. …

“[A]dvocates are counting on … a legalization ruling from the same five justices who struck down DOMA — and maybe even a legacy-minded Chief Justice John Roberts joining, too. … Even over the past year, proponents’ read on the court has changed: Justice Anthony Kennedy’s opinion in Windsor dismissed the argument that gay marriage caused harm to children and seemed to be inviting the next, larger challenge.” http://politi.co/1pVWzG7

VIDEO: “OPEN MIKE” interview with Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters, who talks about his behind-the-scenes chat when President Obama addressed the group’s annual dinner last week; what it was like to work for Ralph Nader; and his collection of Jerry Garcia ties. 3 mins. http://politi.co/1qQ18Df

PULLING BACK THE CAMERA – N.Y. Times Magazine cover, “The party of family values / tax cuts/ national security reform? [with each of those three topics scribbled out] Can the G.O.P. be a party of ideas?” by Sam Tanenhaus, a writer at large for The Times who’s working on a biography of William F. Buckley: “On Jan. 8, … Marco Rubio … announced a plan to create a ‘revenue-neutral flex fund’ that would disburse federal funds to the states to spend as they wished on antipoverty programs. … The plan wouldn’t save a dime in the short run — in fact, it would most likely increase costs — but it met the bigger ideological goal of ‘incentivizing’ work, a pet theme on the right since the days of [Irving] Kristol and his liberal ally Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

“The originator of Rubio’s plan was Oren Cass, a top adviser on the Romney campaign, whom Rubio contacted after Cass originally proposed the idea in National Review. When I met Rubio at his office, … he brought out his iPad and tapped on a file in Dropbox labeled ‘Upward Mobility.’ … Not even the most hardened Republican opposes a better-skilled work force. What sets Rubio’s thinking apart is his enthusiasm for a different approach to educating and training the young. …

“‘Our debt isn’t driven by discretionary spending on poverty programs,’ Rubio said. ‘We’re not going to balance the budget by saving money on safety-net programs.’ It is hard to imagine the Republican candidate who will say this in a closely contested Red State primary in 2014 or during a presidential race in 2016.” http://nyti.ms/1m8h7v5

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE: Michael Patrick O'Neil, charter member of Team Obama, one-night lead guitar player for Wilco, and the pride of Defiance, Ohio, leaves today after serving as a special assistant to the President, and key aide to David Plouffe and David Simas. Michael joined the exploratory committee in January, 2007; became the Obama campaign's Midwest finance director; and has served in the White House from Day 1. O'Neil -- always first to congratulate you on your success, console you for a loss, or capture the moment in one of his legendary mix CDs -- heads out tomorrow for a five-week road trip across America.”

--“Find out here how much your favorite Obama aide is paid,” by Yahoo News’ Olivier Knox: “The White House official whose job, until recently, included monitoring reporters’ tweets makes $42,420. David Simas, the head of the West Wing’s political office, makes $172,200. The chief calligrapher, Patricia Blair, pulls down $97,692. The Obama administration made the information public in searchable database form. White House press secretary … Josh Earnest … makes $172,200. That’s the highest salary for White House staff — and 11 men and 11 women currently make that much. … In total, the 457 employees make $37,776,925, for an average yearly salary of about $82,663.” http://yhoo.it/TBmqbq

HAPPENING TODAY: Scott Brown, running for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, appears with Mitt Romney at Bittersweet Farm in Stratham, N.H., where Romney kicked off his campaign in 2011. Other speakers will include the hosts, former New Hampshire House Speaker Doug Scamman and his wife, former state Rep. Stella Scamman; N.H. state senate president Chuck Morse; Susan Duprey, who was Ann Romney’s 2012 chief of staff; former Gov. and White House chief of staff John H. Sununu (who is 75 today); and Scott’s wife, Gail Huff.

--FIRST LOOK – From Scott Brown’s prepared remarks: “This election is America’s last chance to pass judgment on the performance of President Obama. He’s not on the ballot, but his biggest supporter in the Senate is Jeanne Shaheen, and the president needs her back. … Senator Shaheen is a nice person – she is just not the independent voice that she promised to be.”

WORLD CUP WATCH: Wall Street Journal, top of A1, “Goodbye, Cruel World Cup” … N.Y. Times A1, below fold, “Wild ride by U.S. Reaches End, but Soccer Comes Out a Winner” … N.Y. Daily News cover, “END OF THE WORLD [with the “O” as the World Cup logo]: American heroes fall short in a heartbreaker” (2-1 to Belgium, in extra time) … N.Y. Post Sports back, “AGONY OF DE-FEET: Belgium ends U.S. Cup dream in heartbreaker” …

--WEB PRANK OF THE DAY: “Someone briefly changed the Wikipedia entry for the United States Secretary of Defense from Chuck Hagel to U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard.” Including photo! http://usat.ly/1jIUnOn

--FRANK FOER, editor of The New Republic, “Yes, American Soccer Has Finally Arrived”: “[T]he generational change that has been long predicted has finally arrived. There’s a significant group of twenty-somethings who grew up playing the game, both on the pitch and on PlayStation. They know the international cast of characters, the chants, the finer points of tactics. In part, American media (especially ESPN) has done a brilliant job carrying the game to a larger audience. Soccer’s base is not NFL-sized, but it is no longer niche. …

“The performance of the [U.S.] squad was appalling in patches during the games against Ghana, Germany and Belgium—the defense was careless, there were distressingly few quality shots on goal, and possession was easily disrupted. … [Coach Jurgen ] Klinsmann … has built a platform that enables even a mediocre side to play attractive attacking football; and it is capable of foiling far more talented teams.” http://bit.ly/1mJfAaL

** A message from GE: For unique views on policy from the best in the news, including Mike Allen and OpenMike, check out gepressing.com, presented by GE. **

BLOOMBERG POLITICS, the new Halperin-Heilemann site, debuts Oct. 6, a month before midterms. Capital New York’s Joe Pompeo: “[A] daily half-hour … show hosted by the duo … will air in Bloomberg TV's 5 p.m. timeslot as well as streaming online.” http://bit.ly/1sWNB0D

NEW SERIES – “‘Wait, Is This Thing On?’: There's No Such Thing As An October Surprise In Politics,” by HuffPost’s Sam Stein: “In the [second installment] of The Huffington Post's ‘Wait, Is This Thing On?’ -- aka ‘Drinking and Talking’ -- Eddie Vale, vice president of the Democratic opposition research firm American Bridge, and Tim Miller, executive director of the GOP opposition research firm America Rising, [talked] with Amanda Terkel of The Huffington Post and Margaret Talev of Bloomberg News … [about] how to define a candidate [and] how dirty presidential elections can get.” http://huff.to/1mJofde

WE APOLOGIZE for yesterday’s snafu with the shortened links. For reasons that remain mysterious to specialists here, the links – which worked when they were sent -- were blocked all at once. Jessica Huff of our Webteam heroically posted a repaired version. And we have switched back to bit.ly, which Playbook used back in the day.

2016 – WSJ A1, “Formidable Fundraising: Clinton Money Machine Taps Corporate Cash,” by Brody Mullins, Peter Nicholas and Rebecca Ballhaus on WSJ A1: “Bill and Hillary Clinton helped raise more than $1 billion from U.S. companies and industry donors during two decades on the national stage through campaigns, paid speeches and a network of organizations advancing their political and policy goals, The Wall Street Journal [has] found. … In total, the Clintons raised between $2 billion and $3 billion from all sources, including individual donors, corporate contributors and foreign governments ... Between $1.3 billion and $2 billion came from industry sources.” http://on.wsj.com/1o7PmBm

POLL DU JOUR – Quinnnipiac, out this a.m.: “President Barack Obama is the worst president since World War II, 33 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll … 28 percent pick President George W. Bush. Ronald Reagan is the best president since WWII, 35 percent of voters say, with 18 percent for Bill Clinton, 15 percent for John F. Kennedy and 8 percent for Obama … Among Democrats, 34 percent say Clinton is the best president, with 18 percent each for Obama and Kennedy. …

“America would be better off if Republican Mitt Romney had won the 2012 presidential election, 45 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say the country would be worse off.” http://bit.ly/1iXcWDw

BLAGO COULD BE FREED BY APPEALS DECISION -- Politico Magazine, “Letter from Chicago: Will Rod Be Spared? Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is in jail, but maybe not for long,” by Natasha Korecki, a political reporter and columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, and the author of “Only in Chicago: How the Rod Blagojevich Scandal Engulfed Illinois and Enthralled the Nation”: “Blagojevich … [is] now serving out a 14-year term in a federal prison in Colorado. Now, five years after his arrest, … the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals is due [any day] to put out its ruling that could answer the most fundamental of questions: Were Blagojevich’s actions in fact criminal? During appellate arguments … in December, U.S. Appeals Judge Frank Easterbrook, … appeared incredulous after asking if prosecutors could cite ‘any criminal conviction in U.S. history’ other than Blagojevich’s in which a politician was convicted for trying to trade one job for another. …

“[I]t was clear the appeals judges had issues with fundamental aspects of the case. Easterbrook recalled the 1952 presidential election, when Earl Warren offered to use his position as California governor to ‘deliver California’ for Republican candidate Dwight Eisenhower in return for a seat on the Supreme Court.” http://politi.co/1onizdp

MILESTONE – “Navy’s first female four-star,” by Stars and Stripes’ Jon Harper: “Adm. Michelle Janine Howard became the highest-ranking female officer in the history of the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, when she was given a fourth star and assumed the role of Vice Chief of Naval Operations. ‘Her accomplishment is a direct example of a Navy that now, more than ever, reflects the nation it serves — a nation where success is not borne of race, gender or religion, but of skill and ability,’ Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus said … In 1999, she became the first African-American woman to command a ship in the U.S. Navy when she took command of the USS Rushmore, a dock landing ship.” http://1.usa.gov/1lxP5EZ

REMEMBERING JEFFREY RESSNER – The Hollywood Reporter’s Roy Trakin: “[A] familiar figure on the local entertainment journalism scene who wrote for Cash Box, The Hollywood Reporter, Rolling Stone, Us Weekly and Time … [he] died of complications from heart disease. He was 56. … He joined the L.A. Weekly shortly after its launch … Ressner joined the online site Politico as their Hollywood correspondent, and then worked the last few years as a freelancer.” http://bit.ly/1o7K9JS

BUSINESS BURST -- “Southwest Airlines Begins International Service to Three Countries” -- Release: Southwest Airlines' first international departure, Flight 1804 from Baltimore/Washington to Oranjestad, Aruba, departed ontime at 8:30am EDT, closely followed by Southwest Flight 906 to Montego Bay, Jamaica, where its first-ever scheduled international arrival was planned for just after 11am EST. A midday flight from Baltimore/Washington to Nassau/Paradise Island also brings Southwest Airlines' legendary Customer Service to The Bahamas.” http://bit.ly/1mSD6qH

TECH WATCH – “From big to giant: Behemoth TVs start to take off,” by AP’s Anne d'Innocenzio: “People are snagging big screens — pushing sales of them up 50 percent in the past year while overall TV sales have faltered. As prices fall, hardcore TV watchers and video gamers are finding sets affordable that a few years ago would have been playthings for wealthier people. … While overall TV sales have dropped as much as 10 percent annually since 2010, big-screen TVs have become the fastest-growing category. During the year that ended April, 800,000 65-inch TVs or larger were sold, a 69 percent jump. That equated to a 50 percent increase to $1.6 billion in sales in a TV market totaling an estimated $18 billion.” http://yhoo.it/1lxSq77

--“Facebook probed by Britain over mood experiment” – AFP/London: “British authorities will question Facebook over an experiment in which the social network secretly manipulated the feelings of users to test their mood … Facebook tampered with the system used to create news feeds for 700,000 users to test ‘emotional contagion’ for one week in 2012 without their knowledge. … The Information Commissioner's Office, Britain's independent data watchdog, said it was now looking into the case.”