Good to great: Offensive execution, the Spurs way

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is fond of pointing out what should be obvious, no matter how much media members and fans might think otherwise: basketball games are never decided by just one thing.

Not one missed shot. Not one blown defensive assignment. Not one substitution (ahem). On a macro level, not even one particular facet. Rather, hundreds of decisions and outcomes aggregate over 48 minutes to provide those neat, tidy scores we peruse over our morning coffee.

But with the advent of advanced stats, we’re slowly starting to grasp the things that matter most of all. Among those that can actually be quantified, noted statistician Dean Oliver has proposed the so-called “Four Factors” of basketball success: Shooting, rebounding, turnovers and free throws drawn, and their equivalents on defense.

Do well in a majority of areas, and your chance of winning improves accordingly.

What’s interesting about this year’s Spurs is that, despite ranking seventh in overall offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100 possessions, they’re mediocre to poor in three of those categories:

What they do well, perhaps better than any other team in the NBA outside of Miami, is generate quality shots, with a deep, talented roster capable of consistently converting them. Fortunately for them, a team’s ability to put the ball through the hoop is the single-most important facet in basketball, accounting for 40 percent of a team’s success by Oliver’s estimation.

The Spurs rank second in effective field-goal percentage, another one of those new-fangled stats that accounts for the extra value of 3-pointers compared to 2-point shots. Their 53.7 percentage trails only the Heat, which leads with a scorching 56.4.

(For reference, Miami — which meets the Spurs Thursday at the AT&T Center — ranks first in every category but 3-point shooting, where they’re 10th.)

Yet another measure of the Spurs’ ability to generate great looks, courtesy of NBA.com and SportVU: 73.9 percent of their jump shots are uncontested, trailing only Miami (75.6), Atlanta (75.4) and Philadelphia (75.3), and well above the league average of 69.1.

You’ll note that Atlanta and Philadelphia are both coached by Popovich disciples, further proof that the Spurs’ approach works. (Said Sixers coach Brett Brown of the system he learned in San Antonio: “The Spurs were so interesting because they created a hybrid of classic NBA pick-and-roll basketball, along with European motion, along with speed. And that’s the perfect world. I lived it, and breathed it, and saw it grow.”)

The key difference? Neither the Hawks nor the Sixers, especially, have the talent to capitalize like the Spurs.

Such effective execution helps the Spurs overcome their deficiencies not only in the aforementioned areas, but points off turnovers (15th in the NBA), second-chance points (24th) and transition points (16th). They rarely get anything easy. Yet thanks to their collective team play, particularly in the halfcourt, the Spurs still rank among the NBA’s most productive offenses.

There is no catchy nickname for what the Spurs do, a la Seven Seconds or Less or Showtime. Indeed, there isn’t even anything basic along the lines of Phil Jackson’s triangle. But we might call it Good to Great, Popovich’s catchphrase for the unselfishness he demands from his players. As he explained before Tuesday’s 122-101 victory in Cleveland:

“There are a lot of good shots, but if you can turn that into a great shot, percentages go through the roof. Contested shots are really bad shots. People’s percentage goes down almost by 20, almost without exception. All those things in an offense are things a coach is always trying to develop. It takes time to get everybody to the point where they all buy in and understand how it’s good for the group to do things.

“You want to penetrate not just for you, but for a teammate. Penetrating because I want to make things happen. It could be for me. It could be for a teammate. It could be for the pass after the pass I make. As people start to realize that, then you get a flow and people start playing basketball rather than just running the play that’s called or making up their minds ahead of time.”

The discourse couldn’t have been more timely. Only a few hours later, the Spurs registered a season-high 39 assists on 43 baskets against the Cavaliers, believed to the third-best ratio in franchise history. (The Spurs had 33 on 35 in 2001, and 27 on 29 in 2000.) Almost as impressive, as noted by Paul Garcia of Project Spurs, was seven different players touching the ball at least 40 times, an ideal distribution on a team that counts selfishness and isolation play among its biggest sins. The Spurs also threw 365 passes per NBA.com — nearly four per possession — compared to just 282 for Cleveland.

Popovich’s concept of flow — using the structure of a designed play as flexible framework, rather than iron-clad rule — is perfectly illustrated by one of the Spurs’ pet sets, the Loop.

The primary goal is to put Tony Parker in position to attack the heart of the defense. But watch the following clip and notice how much freedom the Spurs are afforded.

Indeed, in some instances Parker doesn’t even give up the ball to begin the counter clockwise run along the baseline from which the play’s name stems. Sometimes the best available option is to attack before the play is even initiated. So the Spurs, empowered by their coach to think for themselves, take it.

(Editorial aside: Magic Johnson, perhaps the best and most creative passer to dish a no-look dime, initially retired in 1991 with a then-record 3,403 turnovers, and averaged nearly four per game. So not necessarily, Mr. Popovich.)

Whatever the reason, the Spurs’ turnover woes haven’t had nearly the impact you’d expect on either their offensive or overall success. In addition to their elite scoring efficiency, the Spurs have a better record with more turnovers (15-6 when committing at least 17) than less (11-9 with 12 or fewer). Their current turnover percentage of 15.3 also compares favorably to their recent championship teams: 17.0 in 2003 and 15.0 in both 2005 and 2007.

Make no mistake: Turnovers aren’t good, especially when you shoot as well as the Spurs. But if that’s the price to maintain their free-flowing offense, it’s not much of a price at all.