A week ago, it was looking like the cold front passage that came Sunday would be a quick-moving front, behind which, we’d be graced with the presence of cool, dry air. We got the cool air (record low temperatures were set in several locations on Monday), but not the dry. In fact, moisture from Hurricane Sergio (from the East Pacific) got caught up in the cold front, and now we are in the midst of some historic flooding across the…

There’s a lot I could talk about this week between severe weather potential, Colorado getting its first big snow event of the year, and Hurricane Michael, but I’m going to focus on the bigger picture of the forthcoming pattern shift. It may not feel like it, with forecast highs today in the mid to upper 80s across most of Texas, but autumn will soon be here. We have to get through a few almost spring like weather days first however….

It looks like we could get a brief tease of autumn later this week as a respectable cold front moves into Texas. It doesn’t look like the cooler air will stick around long, and you’ll hardly be breaking out the parka, but perhaps the light jacket. Upper-air analysis from the 300 mb pressure level (about 30,000 feet above sea-level) this morning shows a trough digging into the Northern Rockies. To the west of the trough axis, we see a pocket…

A slow-moving cold front is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to much of North Texas beginning Friday and into the weekend. WPC is forecasting widespread totals of 2-3 inches of rain across most of North Texas over the next 72 hours, with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches possible in some locations. Given the recent heavy rainfall, flash flooding will certainly be possible. This heavy rain is expected to begin over parts of the Big Country and up…

It looks like a fairly quiet week is expected for Texas for most of the week. The only stories will be the continued minor to moderate flooding along the Nueces and Frio River in South Texas, and then the daily chances for scattered thunderstorms across much of the state. Starting with the river flooding, the Nueces River near Tilden (McMullen County) is in moderate flood stage, and is expected to remain at moderate stage through the rest of the week,…

We have been tracking Hurricane Florence for several days now, and it is now sitting just off the North Carolina coast. As of the latest NHC position report, Florence is about 45 miles south-southwest of Morehead City, NC. Wind gusts to hurricane force are already being reported onshore, with a wind gust to 86 MPH measured at Jacksonville, NC earlier this evening. Taking a look at the Wilmington, NC radar, the eyewall is sitting just offshore, with some fairly strong…

Update: 9:00 PM CDT May 2 While it looks like things have not been too bad in the Oklahoma City area, there have been a few tornado warnings. The most interesting looking storm at the moment is what could be a possible tornado embedded in a line of thunderstorms that just passed through the northeast side of Norman, Oklahoma. Radar showed rotational velocity of about 30 knots, which while not terribly strong, was at an altitude of only 300 feet….

Update: 9:15 PM Tuesday Taking a look at today’s storm reports from SPC, it looks like we have had quite the severe weather day. As of this writing, there are 20 tornado reports (note that some of these reports are likely the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes is almost certainly less than this number), 15 damaging wind reports (including a wind gust to 80 MPH near Wymore, Neb.), and an astounding 116 large hail reports (the largest…

Since Wednesday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting a potential for severe weather across much of Oklahoma and parts of North Texas. Since Thursday morning, SPC has had an “Enhanced” risk across these same areas, with today’s Day One Convective Outlook continuing to show the Enhanced risk. Taking a look at morning observations, in the upper levels, a highly amplified trough is noted across the Rocky Mountains. The absolute vorticity maximum associated with this trough is over Northwestern…

Main surface feature of interest this morning in the region is the remnant low of Hurricane Irma now positioned over the Tennessee Valley. Some high clouds from Irma are actually spreading over Northeast Texas this morning, but besides these high clouds, Irma will not bring much in terms of sensible impacts to Texas. Otherwise, surface observations show another mild morning with 60s across interior Texas, and 70s along the Gulf Coast. At the upper-levels, this morning’s 500 mb analysis shows…