A blog consisting of interviews, research and opinions on baseball's past, present, and future.

Top 100 Baseball Blog

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Boston Red Sox Ending 2016 Regular Season on Many High Notes

The Boston Red Sox have put their fans in a glass case of
emotions this year. The time is quickly counting down on the illustrious career
of beloved slugger David Ortiz.
Additionally, even though they are currently in first place in the American
League East, the team is still fighting for their playoff spot with their
finger nails, as a veritable pack of hopefuls nip at their heels. That being
said, no matter what happens the rest of the way there are a number of
positives that will come out of the 2016 campaign and can be applied to the
future.

When starting pitcher David Price
was signed to a massive $217 million contract
this past offseason there was the assumption he would lead the team’s pitching
staff for years to come. To the contrary, he stumbled out of the gate, posting
a 4.34 ERA in the first half of the season and allowing 16 home runs in his
first 19 starts. A collective sigh of relief can be taken given his performance
since the All Star break. In those 11 starts he has gone 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA
and has permitted just nine home runs. A slight decline in his fastball
velocity (92.9 average MPH represents a career-low)
and a lower strikeout rate 10.1/7.9 per 9 innings before/after the All Star
break suggests the previous blip in results may have simply been an adjustment
to pitching with slightly less octane stuff for the former Cy Young winner.

Veteran second baseball Dustin
Pedroia is another player who had seen diminished results in recent years. A
team stalwart for a decade, injuries and age seemed to be creeping up on the
33-year-old. However, he has proven that there is definitely something left in
the tank. Putting up one of his best seasons ever, he has appeared in 142
games, batting .327 with 13 home runs and 66 RBIs. Although he is no longer
much of a threat on the base paths, he is still one of the best defensive
players in the game.

Instead of slowing down as the season has progressed,
Pedroia has only gotten stronger. In 57 games since the All Star break, he has
hit a robust .362 and contributed a .900 OPS. He is simply hitting the ball
with authority, as 32.6% of the balls he has put in play this year have been
with hard
contact, a figure he has not matched since his rookie year in 2007. Signed
to a team-friendly deal through the 2012 season, there is still plenty of
reason to hope he will finish out his tenure in Boston on a high note similar
to his teammate Ortiz.

Even without the veterans, Boston looks to be sitting pretty
with their triumvirate of young stars on the offensive side of the ball.
Shortstop Xander
Bogaerts and outfielders Mookie Betts
and Jackie
Bradley Jr. can all hit for average and power and play defense that ranges
from good to outstanding. Additionally, all three made the American League All
Star team in 2016 and will all be 26 or younger at the start of next season.
Even better, Bogaerts (2020) and Betts/Bradley Jr. (2021) have a ways to go
before they are eligible for free agency.

Rick
Porcello was brought in via trade prior to last season to help shore up the
rotation. The team thought so highly of him that they signed him to a lucrative
four-year extension
before he ever made an official start with the team. When he went on to lose 15
games and post a 4.92 ERA there was a collective groan emitted from Red Sox Nation.
However, not content to sit on his laurels and count his money, Porcello has
roared back in 2016 with his best season to date. The 27-year-old right hander
has gone 20-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 30 starts. Blending four pitches, he has also
seen his walk and hit rates plummet to career lows. It appears he is exactly
the pitcher the team thought they were getting and should be an important cog
for years to come.

Another young pitcher expected to do great things was
23-year-old left-hander Eduardo
Rodriguez, who impressed with 10 wins as a rookie last year. Unfortunately,
lingering injuries caused him to miss time to start this year, and to be
ineffective when he did finally return (8.59 ERA in his first six starts).
Although he has gone just 1-4 in his next 11 starts, his 3.25 ERA, climbing
strikeout rate and falling home run rate show that without a doubt he is back
on track. Much like Porcello, he could very well be a lynchpin of the Boston
rotation for years to come.

Another pitcher ending the 2016 seasons on a positive note
is right-hander Clay
Buchholz. An enigma of extraordinary proportions for the past decade, over
the years he has in turns pitched brilliantly and disappointingly along with regularly
missing time due to a litany of injuries. A miserable first half this season
saw him post a 5.91 ERA and allow 17 home runs in just 80.2 innings. Being in
the final of year of his contract, the countdown
literally began as salivating fans all but tarred and feathered him and rode
him out of town on a rail.

Initially demoted to the bullpen, Buchholz has since
shuttled back and forth between starting and relieving and has made great
strides in redeeming his season. In 45.2 innings since his disastrous first
half, he has put up a very good 3.94 ERA and allowed just four homers. Although
his contract is ending, a 2017 team option for $13.5 million (or $500,000
buyout) is in place and the once unthinkable is starting to look extremely
possible. With starting pitching at such a premium across the league, the
strong finish to this season is putting the 32-year-old in position to return
to Boston for at least one more year. His recent results are making the
proposition of committing another year’s salary (his 2017 rate is now quite
reasonable given the current market) much more palatable.

As the Red Sox wind up their 2016 season, there are still a
lot of possibilities and potential glory left for the taking. However, no
matter what happens there is already plenty to look forward to for anyone
wanting to take a peek at next year.