Coding Factors

Once phases have been identified, specific factors may exert an influence over
the dynamics of the situation by "pushing" it either toward or away from the
threshold of the next phase. Factors represent economic, political, ethnic, military,
social, or psychological events, conditions or perceptions that could reasonably be shown
to have exerted pressures, in varying degree, on the course of a conflict. CASCON's
factors were developed empirically from case histories. Factors derive from one or more
specific statements about particular post-World War II conflict situations, representing
elements deemed relevant in real life by historians, diplomats, or other experts on those
conflicts. These specific statements were then inductively combined and generalized into
CASCON factors, by replacing specific names and places with generic phrases and by merging
similar statements into common factors. The factors encompass the influential variables
available from this special form of theorizing about the dynamics of local conflict.

There are 571
factors in CASCON with 176 factors in Phase 1, 189 in Phase 2, and 206 in Phase 3. Within
each phase, factors are grouped into ten factor categories
by subject matter. Factors are assigned a factor number beginning with the phase
number and category letter code and then a two-digit number within that group. For
example, factor "3M-06" is the sixth factor in the military-strategic category
in Phase 3. Note that a factor applies only to a single phase. If the same condition is
relevant in another phase, there will be a separate factor with a different factor number.

CASCON provides a standard list of factors for all cases. For each case, a factor coding
is used to indicate whether a factor is present and, if present, what effect it has. Each
of the cases in CASCON database was coded by three experts, usually one or two scholarly
authorities, perhaps a former diplomat, military officer, or UN mediator who had been
associated with the case, as well as by one in-house coder at MIT. Where codings diverged,
most were reconciled through a set of decision rules, with remaining instances being
resolved collegially by the staff.

The factors can be thought of as a checklist of questions to ask about the case. Every
factor has been significant in some past case, but it may or may not be relevant to the
case at hand. In going through the factors for a phase, the first decision is whether each
factor was present or absent at that phase. If present, a factor may have a neutral
effect, or it may influence the situation toward or away from "worsening" or
"escalation," that is, from the use of violence. For factors identified as
present and influential, the degree of influence is rated on three levels. The nine
choices for factor codings are:

T3

Major influence toward use of military force

T2

Some influence toward use of military force

T1

Little influence toward use of military force

N

Neutral, present in the case but no influence in either direction

A1

Little influence away from use of military force

A2

Some influence away from use of military force

A3

Major influence away from use of military force

F

False, or not present in the case

--

No information available, or not yet coded

When a new case is opened, all factors are marked as "no information." In
coding a case some factors can be skipped over altogether. For example, for a case in
Phase 2, none of the Phase 3 factors is applicable. Similarly, if there is no disputed
territory, category D can be ignored entirely. For the rest, the "no
information" coding is an indication of additional aspects of the case that may need
further investigation. CASCON's grouping or filtering capabilities can be used to quickly
identify "no information" factors. The coding tool also has a button that skips
to the next uncoded factor.

Hint. One technique for coding a case is to go through the factor list
twice. On the first pass, only the presence or absence of a factor is considered. Factors
are marked N for present or F for not present. On the second pass, all the factors marked
N are evaluated for influence on the case. Generally, the "major" codings T3 and
A3 should be used sparingly to indicate the most salient forces driving the case. Other
factors that tilt in one direction or the other can be marked as "little" or
"some" depending on the user's judgment of their degree of influence.