California drought, but for how long, how bad

As of the last day of 2013, Chico had accumulated a total of 3.45 inches of rain since July 1, according to records maintained by the Enterprise- Record.

In an average year, by the end of December, 9.25 inches of rain should have fallen.

The situation is the same in other valley locations.

Oroville has a season total of 3.55 inches of rain. Willows has received only 1.12 inches of rain over the first half of the precipitation year, which goes from July 1 of one year to June 30 of the next.

What the current dry spell means will be entirely determined by what comes in the future.

The lack of rain so far means that there will be less tree disease in Butte County's orchards, which is a good thing, explained Richard Price, the county's agricultural commissioner.

The dry conditions also mean people can get into their orchards to do various projects, also good.

If things are not currently critical for orchardists, dry land farmers who have wheat or barley seed in the ground and are waiting for rain are suffering, as are people with cattle on natural pasture who must pump groundwater for the animals and the feed, according to Price.

The ag commissioner said the only accurate thing he can say about the impact of the drought is that it is a gamble. "It is like going to Reno. You put your money down and see what happens," he said.

Describing what is happening is more straightforward than explaining why it is taking place.. This can be seen in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook."

In the report issued the week before Christmas, NOAA said, "Patches of above-normal precipitation have been analyzed in southeastern California, but most of the state received less than half of normal precipitation during the last half of 2013."

Dave Samuhel, a meteorologist with AccuWeather in State College, Pa., said the California drought can be can be blamed on the fact that the Pacific Jet Stream is all but nonexistent.

He explained that California usually gets its precipitation when a cold low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska sucks in moist air from a tropical high over the Pacific.

The result can bring rain to California.

There have been almost no lows in the northern Pacific, therefore no rain. The weather is generally stuck with much of Canada covered in deep snow and shivering in temperatures that have been well below zero, according to Samuhel.

So, will this change?

"It can only stay like this for so long. The odds would argue there is going to be a change," said Samuhel, but when is a wide-open question.

History might provide a hint as to what is possible.

During the 1976- 1977 precipitation year, a total of 11.22 inches of rain had fallen.

Total annual rainfall in Chico, again according to E-R records, comes in at just over 25 inches.

There is one place where the dry winter seems to have had a positive effect.

According to Tim Snellings, director of the Butte County Department of Development Services, there has been an impressive number of building permits being applied for.

In December 2012, a total of five building permits were sought within county jurisdiction.

In December this year, 61 building permits were applied for; the value of the projects has also skyrocketed.

According to county records, the "valuation of work" in 2012 associated with the building permits sought in December was just over $398,000, but for this year the December permits have a projected value of just under $11.9 million.

Snellings said the rush to get permits can't be entirely be attributed to convenient construction weather.

He said changes in building codes related to energy and water conservation could also play a role in the in the upswing as builders try to get their applications in before the Dec. 31 deadline.

In an email Tuesday afternoon, Snellings said the numbers he had provided earlier in the day may not hold.

"The day is NOT yet over. Permit applications are still coming in as we write," he wrote.