We find evidence that the current bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Mexico and the EU raised exports by 4%. An improved BTA between the EU and Mexico could mitigate some of the negative fallout of a potential NAFTA collapse, albeit to a small extent.

The global economy has been growing at a moderate rate of around 3 per cent for many years. We expect to see similar growth figures in the coming years. But the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has hugely raised the level of global uncertainty.

The global economy will continue to grow at around 3 per cent this year and next. Possibilities for boosting the economy through budgetary or monetary policy are limited, while political developments mean that effective economic policy is unlikely.

Discussions today are about how far down future interest may go, though it is unclear how this helps the real economy. What we need is a big reset: a coordinated normalization of the monetary situation, combined with a sizeable net fiscal stimulus.