Until at least the middle of the next decade, global growth is likely to slow to around 3 percent per year on average — a rate somewhat below the average of the last two decades. A recovery in advanced economies will be more than offset by a gradual slowdown in emerging ones as they mature, with the net result that global growth will slow. But the biggest risk ahead for the global economy is not this slower overall growth in output but a slowdown in average output per capita, which will determine how fast living standards can be supported and raised.

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