Can John Kerry end the Gaza-Israel bloodshed?

By Aaron David Miller

updated 9:38 AM EDT, Wed July 23, 2014

Palestinians in Gaza celebrate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Tuesday, August 26. After more than seven weeks of heavy fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed to an open-ended ceasefire that puts off dealing with core long-term issues.

Palestinians inspect the damage to a residential building following several late night Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on August 26.

Gila, center, mother of 4-year-old Israeli boy Daniel Tragerman, sits next to his grave during his funeral near the Israel-Gaza border on Sunday, August 24.

Palestinians run away from debris after a bomb from an Israeli airstrike hit a house in Gaza on Saturday, August 23.

An Israeli soldier smokes a cigarette in a large concrete pipe used as shelter at an army deployment point near the Israeli-Gaza border on Wednesday, August 20.

Light trails made by rockets fired from the Gaza Strip stand out against the night sky on Tuesday, August 19. Despite efforts to come to a peaceful agreement, Gaza militants launched rockets into Israel on Tuesday, and Israel responded with its own rockets.

An injured Palestinian man is helped into the Shifa hospital in Gaza City on August 19.

Police examine the remains of a rocket launched from Gaza that landed near the kibbutz of Yad Mordechay on August 19.

Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike on Gaza City on August 19.

Islam El Masri begins to sort through the rubble of her destroyed home in Beit Hanoun, Gaza, on Thursday, August 14.

Israelis gather in Tel Aviv during a protest August 14 calling on the government and the army to end Palestinian rocket attacks from Gaza once and for all.

Smoke rises in Gaza City after an airstrike on Saturday, August 9.

Israeli soldiers walk past a Merkava tank as they patrol a field near Israel's border with Gaza on August 9.

A Palestinian boy salvages family belongings from the rubble of a four-story building after an airstrike in Gaza City on Friday, August 8.

Israelis flee after a rocket fired from Gaza hit the residential neighborhood of Sderot, Israel, on August 8.

A Palestinian man looks out over destruction in the al-Tufah neighborhood of Gaza City on Wednesday, August 6.

Displaced Palestinians carry their belongings as they leave a United Nations school in Beit Lahiya, Gaza, to return to their homes Tuesday, August 5.

The body of Avrohom Wallis is carried during his funeral in Jerusalem on Monday, August 4. Wallis was killed in what Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld called a "terror attack," when a man drove an earthmover into a bus in Jerusalem.

Israeli soldiers fire a mortar shell toward Gaza from the Israeli side of the border on August 4.

Palestinians remove rubble from a house hit by an airstrike in the al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City on August 4.

An Israeli drone circles over Gaza City on Sunday, August 3.

A Palestinian man sits in a hospital in Rafah, Gaza, on August 3.

An honor guard caries the coffin of Israeli Lt. Hadar Goldin during his funeral in Kfar-saba, Israel, on August 3. Goldin was thought to have been captured during fighting in Gaza but was later declared killed in action by the Israel Defense Forces.

A Palestinian boy looks for belongings after an airstrike in Rafah on Saturday, August 2.

Israeli soldiers walk to their tank at a staging area near the border with Gaza on August 2.

A young Palestinian carries damaged copies of the Quran from the rubble of the Imam Al Shafaey mosque in Gaza City on August 2.

Palestinians displaced from their houses return to check their homes in Gaza City on Friday, August 1.

An Israeli soldier carries a shell as he prepares a tank along the Israel-Gaza border on Thursday, July 31. Israel called up 16,000 additional reservists, bolstering forces for its fight against Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza.

Smoke rises from a building after an airstrike in Rafah on July 31.

The parents and a sister of Israeli soldier Guy Algranati mourn during his funeral in Tel Aviv on July 31.

U.N. workers remove a donkey injured at a U.N.-run school in Gaza on Wednesday, July 30.

Palestinians walk under the collapsed minaret of a destroyed mosque in Gaza City on July 30.

Palestinians gather leaflets that fell from an Israeli plane on July 30. The leaflets warned residents of airstrikes in Gaza City.

Israelis take cover from a Palestinian rocket attack from Gaza during the funeral of Israeli soldier Meidan Maymon Biton, which was held at a cemetery in Netivot, Israel, on Tuesday, July 29.

Smoke and fire rise above Gaza City after an Israeli airstrike on July 29.

An Israeli soldier prays on the Israeli side of the border with Gaza on July 29 as smoke billows from the only power plant supplying electricity to Gaza.

Near the rubble of their home in Rafah, Palestinian men mourn July 29 for people killed during an airstrike.

A Palestinian man places a portrait of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya on the rubble of Haniya's Gaza City home July 29 after it was hit by an overnight airstrike.

Flares from Israeli forces light up the night sky of Gaza City on July 29.

Israeli soldiers carry the coffin of 2nd Lt. Roy Peles, an infantry officer who was killed in combat, during his funeral in Tel Aviv on Sunday, July 27.

During a 12-hour cease-fire in Gaza City's Shijaiyah neighborhood on Saturday, July 26, a Palestinian man sits atop a car filled with belongings that were salvaged from a destroyed home.

Israeli soldiers watch a bomb explode along the border with Gaza before the 12-hour cease-fire on July 26.

As her brother-in-law Mazen Keferna weeps on the ground, Manal Keferna cries upon discovering her family home destroyed by airstrikes in Beit Hanoun on July 26.

Palestinians dig a body out of the rubble of a destroyed house in Gaza during the cease-fire on July 26.

An Israeli soldier mourns at the grave of reserve Master Sgt. Yair Ashkenazy during his funeral at the military cemetery in Rehovot, Israel, on Friday, July 25. Ashkenazy was killed during operations in northern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces reported.

A Palestinian man cries after bringing a child to the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya on Thursday, July 24. The child was wounded in a strike on a school that was serving as a shelter for families in Gaza. It's unclear who was behind the strike. The Israeli military said it was "reviewing" the incident, telling CNN that a rocket fired from Gaza could have been responsible.

Israeli soldiers carry a wounded soldier to a helicopter near the Israel-Gaza border on July 24.

Israeli soldiers patrol the Israel-Gaza border on July 24.

A trail of blood is seen in the courtyard of the school that was hit July 24 in the Beit Hanoun district of Gaza.

An Israeli tank fires toward Gaza from a position near Israel's border on July 24.

A photograph tweeted by astronaut Alexander Gerst on Wednesday, July 23, shows major cities of Israel and Gaza. Gerst said in his tweet: "My saddest photo yet. From #ISS we can actually see explosions and rockets flying over #Gaza & #Israel."

A woman in Philadelphia passes by a departure board that shows US Airways Flight 796, scheduled to fly to Tel Aviv, has been canceled on Tuesday, July 22. The Federal Aviation Administration told U.S. airlines they were temporarily prohibited from flying to the Tel Aviv airport after a Hamas rocket exploded nearby.

Smoke and fire from the explosion of an Israeli strike rise over Gaza City on July 22.

A relative of Israeli soldier Jordan Ben-Simon mourns over his coffin during his funeral in Ashkelon, Israel, on July 22.

Palestinians inspect destroyed buildings and collect usable items after an Israeli air assault on July 22.

Israeli soldiers weep at the grave of Israeli Sgt. Adar Barsano during his funeral Sunday, July 20, in Nahariya, Israel.

Palestinian medics carry a body in Gaza's Shaja'ia district on July 20.

Israeli soldiers give medical care to soldiers who were wounded during an offensive in Gaza on July 20.

A Palestinian boy injured during an Israeli airstrike is taken to the hospital by his father in Gaza City on July 20.

Palestinians flee their homes as Israeli troops focus their firepower on the Gaza town of Shaja'ia on Sunday, July 20. The shelling and bombing killed at least 60 people and wounded 300, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Smoke rises after an Israeli missile hit Shaja'ia on July 20.

A Palestinian child walks on debris from a destroyed house following an overnight Israeli strike in Beit Lahiya on Saturday, July 19.

An explosion rocks a street in Gaza City on Friday, July 18.

Israeli ground forces move to the Gaza border on July 18.

Israeli soldiers patrol near the Israel-Gaza border on July 18.

A relative mourns July 18 during the funeral of Rani Abu Tawila, a Palestinian who was killed in an Israeli attack on Gaza City.

A Palestinian demonstrator, protesting Israel's military operation in Gaza, runs through smoke July 18 during clashes with Israeli soldiers at the entrance of the Ofer prison in the West Bank village of Betunia.

This image, made from video shot through a night-vision scope, was released by the Israeli military on July 18. It shows troops moving through a wall opening during the early hours of the ground offensive in Gaza.

Children stare as Palestinians flee Khan Yunis, Gaza, to safe areas July 18.

An Israeli tank fires a shell into Gaza on July 18.

A Palestinian carries a gas cylinder salvaged from the rubble of an apartment building after it was hit by Israeli fire on July 18.

An Israeli reservist prays July 18 near the Gaza border by Sderot, Israel.

Flare smoke rises into the Gaza City sky on Thursday, July 17.

HIDE CAPTION

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

Israel-Gaza crisis

<<

<

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

>

>>

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Secretary of State John Kerry went to the Middle East to try to end the Gaza battle

Aaron Miller: Need for peace is urgent, but do Hamas and Israel feel time is right for deal?

U.S. is not in a position to mediate a solution by itself but can work with others, he says

Miller: It's too late to end crisis with just a cease-fire; a broader deal is needed

Editor's note: Aaron David Miller is a vice president and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and was a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. Follow him on Twitter. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN) -- Woody Allen famously said that 80% of success in life is about just showing up. He's wrong. Success in life -- as in diplomacy -- is about showing up at the right time. So Is John Kerry coming to the Israeli-Hamas crisis too early, too late or just at the right time?

The secretary of state has been eager to get into the middle of this almost since it started. He considered going last weekend from Vienna, Austria, where he had joined five other world powers in negotiations with Iran on the nuclear deal. But he smartly decided -- or was discouraged by the Egyptians who were in the middle of their own cease-fire mediation -- not to go.

Still, the rising number of deaths primarily on the Palestinian side and the real danger of escalation of a ground incursion left him little choice. Regardless of the outcome, after Syria and Iraq, both President Barack Obama and Kerry realized that the United States couldn't sit on the sidelines like a potted plant.

Moreover, Kerry's hot mic comments showing his irritation at Israel's supposed "pinpoint" airstrikes in Gaza revealed a good deal more frustration than simply a desire to collect more frequent flier miles. Kerry is an activist and simply couldn't abide the fact that people were dying and the United States wasn't at least trying to stop it.

But desire and passion won't produce a deal. Kerry proved that in his nine-month effort to negotiate an agreed framework for peace between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

So what will it take to negotiate a cease-fire, and is Kerry the guy to do it?

Obama: Focus is on cease-fire in Gaza

John Kerry comments caught on hot mic

A key question is whether the combatants now believe it is urgent to reach a cease-fire: You would think that with more than 600 Palestinians dead, thousands wounded and displaced, and Israel soldiers' casualties rising, the conflict would have created an imperative for de-escalation. And it may eventually bring both Hamas and Israel to the point that a cease-fire is a top priority.

At the same time, Israel's successful Iron Dome missile defense system has insulated the government to a degree from popular pressure to stand down, and the United States generally has been supportive of Israel's right to defend itself.

But Palestinian civilian casualties have increased international pressure. And Tuesday's Federal Aviation Administration decision to stop flights to and from Israel temporarily will remind Israelis about the costs of the continuing confrontation.

As for Hamas, it's not easy to read its calculations, in part because it's not clear whether the military or political wing is in charge. But it is evident that having entered this conflict financially strapped and politically weak, Hamas leaders believe they need to show something tangible for the death and destruction their missiles have produced in Gaza. And, by infiltrating Israel through tunnels and confrontation with Israelis in Gaza, they have inflicted more fatalities on the Israel Defense Forces than they did in the entire three-week war of 2008/9.

Indeed, Hamas seems convinced this fight could continue for a while longer. Bottom line: Both sides may be reaching a tipping point when pain outweighs gain. But they just may not be there quite yet.

A second key question is who is in a position to mediate the deal. Kerry's formidable energy and talent notwithstanding, he cannot do this deal on his own. Washington has plenty of influence with Israel under the right circumstances but none with Hamas. And that means relying on regional partners who do. But that poses a variety of complications.

Egypt wants to maintain the key role here while keeping Qatar and Turkey at bay to limit their pro-Hamas leanings. Still the deal will likely require payment of Hamas employee salaries and the Qataris may be the banker on that one. Egypt and Hamas will also need to work out some new arrangement to ease crossings from Rafah -- the largest pedestrian crossing from Gaza to Egypt.

Israel also wants to limit the gains Hamas makes. It wants a clean cease-fire first and only then arrangements that might satisfy some of what Hamas is seeking.

In the middle of this is a secretary of state who's very much improvising in an effort to determine who has the most influence with Hamas and how best to go about using it.

At the end of the day, it's no coincidence that Kerry stopped in Egypt first. Cairo will remain the fulcrum of this process.

The final question is what kind of deal could be achieved. The simplest way to conclude this round would be quiet for quiet: no more Hamas rockets and no more Israeli military action. But it's probably too late for that kind of a cease-fire, and it would likely only be a temporary respite.

At the other extreme are a variety of proposals from demilitarization to reoccupation of Gaza by Israel to eliminating Hamas as an organization. But none of these are realistic. The best that can be hoped for is a kind of stability for stability in which a long-term cease-fire would be followed by a number of arrangements to open up Gaza economically in exchange for Hamas' commitment to stand down and ensure that there would be no attacks against Israelvia tunnels and rockets. Indeed Israel may well demand the border with Gaza be supervised to prevent reconstruction and reuse of Hamas' terror tunnels.

In exchange, a number of parties would be asked to deliver on certain commitments: Qatar would pay promised salaries for Hamas employees under the Fatah-Hamas unity accord; Egypt would allow the Rafah crossing to be opened under terms to be negotiated; Israel would agree to open its crossings with Gaza, perhaps with the return -- even in a symbolic manner -- of Palestinian Authority officials in some role in Gaza.

Egypt would continue to crack down on military contraband, slowing Hamas' capacity to rearm. And the United Nations -- together with international donors -- would work to deal with the humanitarian costs of the current crisis.

Sooner or later, something along these lines will be put together. And Kerry can work to assemble part of it. But it will be Egypt that will drive the train, not just because of its desire to be the key actor, but also to limit the outside influences of others.

And of all the potential mediators, including the United States, Israel would likely prefer Cairo, which shares its objective of limiting Hamas gains. None of this will provide a long-term solution to an Israel-Hamas rivalry, let alone to the broader question of how to reach a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian problem. But it will bring to an end another costly round of Israeli-Palestinian violence. And the time for that is long overdue.