KINGSTON — The Nevele's casino dreams will likely be realized or ruined in 2013, the resort's owner said Tuesday.

Michael Treanor told Ulster Chamber members that state leaders will likely indicate where casinos would be sited prior to November's voter referendum on table games.

He expects the state will approve two casinos for New York City's outer boroughs and one for Empire Resorts at the Concord site in Kiamesha Lake.

Hanging in the balance is a casino permit for the Nevele, which Treanor said has a 50 percent chance of happening.

Treanor doesn't expect the Concord and Nevele would cannibalize one another, since he says they're going after different segments of the market.

The Concord wants to be “slick and fun for 25-year-old guys and their girlfriends,” Treanor said, while the Nevele will have family-friendly offerings such as skiing, ice skating, and a water cannon area.

Sen. John Bonacic – who chairs the racing, gaming and wagering committee – said each resort would benefit from having the other one around. He supports bringing a full-scale casino to the Nevele.

Legislators are expected to favor a November referendum on non-tribal gaming, Treanor said, while polling has found such a vote would easily pass.

The state will begin funding a casino control commission on Feb. 1, Treanor said. It's unclear, though, if the commission's power will extend to selecting sites for casinos.

Treanor has spared little expense in his gambling quest.

He said he's now spending $100,000 per month on everything from architects to consultants to lobbyists. Treanor had sunk $750,000 into pre-development work by early October after buying the 564-acre resort in April for $1.63 million.

If Treanor gets a casino permit, he'll spend $400 million redeveloping the resort. A temporary casino would go up within six months of getting the permit, while the permanent hotel and casino would open in 2019.

The resort would offer the equivalent of 1,700 full-time jobs – equal to 41 percent of Ellenville's population.

And if there's no casino?

“If we don't get gaming on the property,” Treanor said, “we'll hand the keys over to the mortgage lender.”

In that scenario, Treanor suspects the old Borscht Belt resort would be bought for around $3.5 million by a religious not-for-profit, where it would languish off the tax rolls.