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Middle East

Iran and Israel's Syrian shadow war laid bare

Tensions between archenemies Iran and Israel are soaring in Syria, complicating an already complex civil war and threatening a regional conflagration. Russia may be the only power in a position to contain it.

The dark clouds of war have been rolling on the horizon for years, fought as a shadow war between Iran and Israel in Syria and Lebanon.

Israel is suspected of carrying out scores of airstrikes in Syria in recent years, centered largely on suspected Iranian arms and missile shipments to the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. However, this limited strategy evolved earlier this year into a steady stream of high-profile Israeli attacks that have directly targeted Iranian bases, allied militia and the air defenses of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The soaring tensions signal that the conflict between the two regional rivals may escalate further, as Israel seeks to contain and roll back Iran and prevent it from establishing permanent bases in Syria — even at the risk of sparking a full blown war.

Syrian battlefield exacerbating tensions

For much of the Syrian civil war, Israel largely looked on from the sidelines, backing neither the Assad regime nor Syria's increasingly radicalized insurgency.

But Assad's forces have been steadily retaking territory from the rebels following Russia's game-changing intervention in September 2015. And the more ground the regime and its allies recapture, "the more Israel's red lines in Syria are crossed," said Ofer Zalzberg, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

As Yury Barmin, a Middle East expert at the Russian International Affairs Council put it: "Russian policies in Syria led to the expansion of Iran in Syria."

Now, having cleared rebel strongholds around Damascus in recent months, the Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian regime is looking to expand its offensive against a rebel-held pocket in the southwest, next to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

"The evolution of the fighting in Syria is likely to exacerbate tensions between Iran and Israel," said Zalzberg.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

War with no end

Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The dictator

Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The northern watchman

Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. The Turkish military has intervened alongside rebels in northern Aleppo, Afrin and Idlib province.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The eastern guardian

The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The western allies

A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The rebels

The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The resistance

Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The new jihadists

"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is facing defeat in both countries after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The old jihadists

IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.

Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?

The Persian shadow

Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.

Author: Elizabeth Schumacher, Alexander Pearson

US emboldens Israel

The confluence of events on the battlefield comes as the Israeli government becomes emboldened by the Trump administration's pro-Israel, anti-Iran stance, manifested by Washington's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and relocation of the US Embassy to Jerusalem.

"The [Israeli] government believes that this is an opportune moment and one that encapsulates a number of trends that support their strategy," said Eran Etzion, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser.

Iran holding back for now

However, Etzion views the Israeli strategy to directly confront Iran in Syriaas one fraught with risk. He pointed out that Israel has not faced another nation state since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War; since then all its wars have been against non-state actors.

"The danger is that Israel will have a misconception or underestimation of the enemy," he said.

Israel is increasingly worried about a potential two-front war involving Iranian-backed groups Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

A worst-case scenario would involve a full-fledged war between Iran and Israel, prompting Tehran to call on Hezbollah to launch the group's estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles from Lebanon. Such a scenario would overwhelm Israel's missile defense systems, opening up Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport and Israel's offshore gas rigs to direct attack.

So far, however, the recently intensified Israeli airstrikes have drawn a restrained and calculated response from Iran. If Iran chooses to retaliate it is likely to be indirect and asymmetrical through proxies, and not necessarily from Syria.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Rise of Hezbollah

Hezbollah, or Party of God, was conceived by Muslim clerics in the 1980s in response to the Israeli invasion of South Lebanon in 1982. The Shiite group has a political and military wing.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

National support against Israel

Hezbollah emerged in the 1980s as an amalgamation of Shiite militias and played a major role in the Lebanese civil war. It used guerrilla warfare to drive Israeli forces out of South Lebanon — Israel withdrew in 2000. Israel and Hezbollah fought another war in 2006. Its defense of Lebanon against Israel had won it cross-sectarian support and acceptance in Lebanese society.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Backed by Iran

Since its creation, Hezbollah has received military, financial and political support from Iran and Syria. Today, Hezbollah's military wing is more powerful than Lebanon's own army and has become a major regional paramilitary force.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Political apparatus

Hezbollah turned its focus to politics following the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. It represents a large section of the Lebanese Shiite population and is allied with other sectarian groups, including Christians. Their political development has mostly come under Hassan Nasrallah (pictured), who became the group's leader in 1992.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Armed wing

Unlike other parties in Lebanon's multi-sided 1975-1990 civil war, Hezbollah did not disband its armed wing. Some Lebanese political groups, such as Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Future Movement, want Hezbollah to put down its arms. Hezbollah argues its militant wing is necessary to defend against Israel and other external threats.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Terror group?

A number of countries and bodies, including the United States, Israel, Canada and the Arab League, consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization. However, the United Kingdom, Australia and the European Union differentiate between its legitimate political activities and its militant wing.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Hezbollah enters Syria's civil war

Hezbollah has been one of the main backers of Syrian President Bashar Assad in the country's civil war. Its entrance into the war helped save Assad, one of its chief patrons; secured weapons supply routes from Syria and formed a buffer zone around Lebanon against Sunni militant groups it feared would take over Syria. As a result it has won considerable support from Shiite communities in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Sectarianism

Lebanon has long been at the center of regional power struggles, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, Hezbollah's military and political ascendancy, as well as its intervention in Syria, have also helped stoke Sunni-Shiite sectarian tensions in Lebanon and across the region.

Hezbollah, Lebanon's Iran-backed paramilitary organization

Renewed conflict with Israel?

Iran and Hezbollah have increased their political and military strength through the war in Syria. Israel views this as a threat and has carried out dozens of airstrikes on Iran/Hezbollah targets in Syria. Israel has vowed to not let Iran and Hezbollah create a permanent presence in Syria. There is growing concern of another war between Hezbollah and Israel that could draw in Iran.

Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, an Iran expert at the University of St. Andrews, believes Tehran will continue to show restraint rather than engage in a significant confrontation with Israel at the moment.

"Iran is in a complex diplomatic initiative with Europe trying to salvage the nuclear deal. Tehran is well aware that a confrontation with Israel doesn't help in that direction," he said, adding that Iran did not want to give Israel a pretext for launching a land incursion into Syria that could threaten Assad.

Russia keeps conflict at bay

Analysts said Russia held the key to preventing conflict between Iran and Israel from spiraling out of control. Moscow controls Syrian airspace and has dominated the political track of the Syrian war since intervening in 2015.

In Russia's view, the Iran-Israel conflict threatens to keep the Assad regime from winning the Syrian civil war, and both Moscow and Tehran want to see the president triumph in the seven-year-old conflict.

Russia is also in the unique position of having good relations with Israel, Syria and Iran.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown Moscow is able to mediate and de-escalate. In February, all it took was a phone call from Putin to stop Israel from continuing airstrikes in Syria after an alleged Iranian drone entered Israeli airspace.

Following similar Israeli attacks in April, Russia criticized Israel and threatened to provide Syria with the S-300 air defense system that would curtail Israeli action over Syria. That harsher response from Moscow may have come because the Israeli strikes occurred amid heightened international tensions and impending US-led strikes on Syria over alleged chemical weapons use. But in a sign Russia will tolerate Israeli military action, Israel struck dozens of targets in Syria last week in response to alleged Iranian rocket fire towards Israel just a day after Netanyahu was in Moscow to meet with Putin.

'Russian iron ceiling'

Russia's strategy is to allow Israel and Iran to exchange blows so long as the action doesn't escalate or threaten the Assad regime, Etzion said, adding that Russia wouldn't support expelling Iran from Syria.

"The conflict between Israel and Iran has a Russian iron ceiling. The Russians will not allow it to cross a certain threshold," he said. "What it means is that when Israel calculates its strategy of rolling back Iran from Syria, the risk is that Russia will not only not side with Israel, but will ultimately curtail the effort."

For Middle East expert Barmin, the Russians are fine with low-scale clashes between Israel and Iran but want to avoid a full-scale war that could draw in the United States.

"The Russians would like to avoid a situation where the United States and Israel are two parts of the same operation against Iran. As long as the US doesn't join forces with Israel against Iran, the Russians are fine with Israel having some ability to attack."

In Zalzberg's opinion, Russia is trying to "shape the rules of the game” between the two adversaries.

"They are not trying to solve the roots of the conflict between Israel and Iran, but are more about delimiting it," the International Crisis Group analyst said. "If anyone is able to do it, Russia is in the best position to mitigate conflict."

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Long-held hope is victorious

On May 14, 1948, David Ben-Gurion, future first prime minister of Israel, declares the state's independence, outlining the Jewish story: "The people kept faith with (the land) throughout their dispersion and never ceased to pray and hope for their return to it and for the restoration in it of their political freedom." It was the birth of an internationally recognized Jewish homeland.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

The darkest hour

While the controversial idea of a God-given land for Jews has biblical roots, the Holocaust was a close, powerful backdrop for the significance of Israel's founding. Nazi Germany murdered six million Jews across Europe, and those who survived the concentration camps endured expulsion and forced labor. The above photo shows survivors of the Auschwitz camp following liberation.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

'Nakba': Arabic for 'catastrophe'

That is the word that Palestinians and their supporters use to mark Israel's independence. About 700,000 Arabs living in Palestine at the time fled as waves of Jewish immigrants arrived to settle in the new Jewish state. The birth of Israel was the start of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains unresolved 70 years later despite numerous attempts.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Life on a kibbutz

These land collectives, known as kibbutzim in the plural, were established across Israel following independence. Many were run by secular or socialist Jews in an effort to realize their vision of society.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

A state at war

Tensions with its Arab neighbors erupted in the Six-Day War in June 1967. With a surprise attack, Israel is able to swiftly defeat Egypt, Jordan and Syria, bringing the Arab-populated areas of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights under Israeli control. Victory leads to occupation — and more tension and conflict.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Settlements on disputed territory

Israel's settlement policy worsens the conflict with Palestinians. Due to development and expansion of Jewish areas on occupied Palestinian land, the Palestinian Authority accuses Israel of making a future Palestinian state untenable. Israel has largely ignored the international community's criticism of its settlement policy, arguing new construction is either legal or necessary for security.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Anger, hate and stones: The first intifada

In winter 1987, Palestinians begin mass protests of Israel's ongoing occupation. Unrest spreads from Gaza to East Jerusalem and the West Bank. The uprising eventually wound down and led to the 1993 Oslo Accords — the first face-to-face agreement between the government of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the representative body of the Palestinian people.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Peace at last?

With former US President Bill Clinton as a mediator, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (left) and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat hold peace talks. The result, the Oslo I Accord, is each side's recognition of the other. The agreement leads many to hope that an end to the Israel-Palestine conflict is not far off, but peace initiatives suffer a major setback when Rabin is assassinated two years later.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

A void to fill

A right-wing Jewish fanatic shoots and kills Rabin on November 4, 1995, while he is leaving a peace rally in Tel Aviv. Rabin's assassination throws the spotlight on Israel's internal social strife. The divide is growing between centrist and extremist, secular and religious. The photo shows Israel's then-acting prime minister, Shimon Peres, next to the empty chair of his murdered colleague.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

Addressing the unspeakable

Nazi Germany's mass murder of Jews weighs on German-Israeli relations to this day. In February 2000, then German President Johannes Rau addresses the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in German. It is a tremendous emotional challenge for both sides, especially for Holocaust survivors and their descendants, but also a step towards closer relations after unforgettable crimes.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

The Israeli wall

In 2002, amid the violence and terror of the Second Intifada, Israel starts building a 107-kilometer-long (67-mile-long) barrier of barbed wire, concrete wall and guard towers between itself and Palestinian areas of the West Bank. It suppresses the violence but does not solve the larger political conflict. The wall grows in length over the years and is projected to reach around 700 kilometers.

Promised land, enemy land: Israel 70 years after independence

A gesture to the dead

Germany's current foreign minister, Heiko Maas, steps decisively into an ever closer German-Israeli relationship. His first trip abroad as the country's top diplomat is to Israel in March 2018. At the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and museum in Jerusalem, he lays a wreath in memory of Holocaust victims.