The One Chart That Shows Obamacare Is Working Exactly As Intended

The rate of uninsured in the U.S. is at its lowest level since 2008, according to a new Gallup survey released Monday. The uninsured rate in April was 13.4%, the lowest level ever recorded in Gallup's ongoing survey that dates back to January 2008.

The uninsured rate has plunged from a peak of 18% last October. Gallup said the steep drop "coincided" with the opening of the federal and state insurance marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act, as well as the expansion of the federal Medicaid program in 27 states and the District of Columbia. As Gallup has noted, the uninsured rate is falling much faster in states that have expanded Medicaid.

Here's the chart from Gallup showing the history of its tracking on the question, including the peak last year followed by the sharp decline:

The drop in the uninsured rate was even more pronounced among African-Americans (down 7.7 points) and Latinos (down 5.5 points). Lower-income Americans (those with an income of $36,000 or less) saw a 5.5-point drop in their rate of uninsured.

Overall, the survey mirrors other studies conducted in the final stages of Obamacare's first open enrollment period. A RAND Corp. survey released early last month found the uninsured rate dropped almost 5 percentage points. Subsequent figures from the Congressional Budget Office showed a drop to 16%. The CBO said it expects the uninsured rate to fall even farther in the coming years.

According to Gallup, there are several factors that could swing the uninsured rate in either direction over the coming months. More people could gain coverage if more states adopt the Medicaid expansion, which has faced steep resistance from Republican-led states. But if a significant number of people who gained insurance through the exchanges do not pay their premiums, the uninsured rate is likely to spike again.