(10-12-2010 01:32 PM)finster869 Wrote: New High. So, either: (1) our count was wrong; (2) the new rule doesn't work; or (3) the new rule used to work, but now that there are nothing but computers trading against one another all day social behavior is no longer accurately portrayed in the market.

For now, I will continue to go with number 1, but having been at this for many, many months I certainly can't say that #2 and/or #3 is not correct.

Hi Finster

Perhaps we could consider this as another option. Let me know what you think ok.

This is that final c4 I got.

Blown up to see the whole c4

Bigger picture

Spike- The 3rd c4 on your chart (1161ish) can't be a "c4" if 1155.71 is a "c4" (otherwise there would have been a pivot, which there was not since we made a new high).

I’ve been lurking, and learning a lot from watching your counts. Thanks!

I’d like to throw out an idea. Looking back through the thread, on 9/22 spike1 posted a chart of the move up from the C4 on Aug 27th at 1046. It looks like he had the 1105 high on 9/3 as a 3 in the move up from Aug 27th. finster replied: “I concur”. Is that where you still have 3? I did not see anything to indicate otherwise, but may have missed it.

What if that 3 was of the next lower degree and the 3 of the move from Aug 27th was the 1148 on 9/21. If so, it would mean you were not as far along in the move from Aug 27th as it appeared, so current developments might be more expected.

Welcome back Tom, I hope you are on the mend, it's a reminder that health trumps money every time. I agree that 1155.7 is the closest 4c. No need to look in detail till the Nas copies the Dax and makes a new 2010 high. The lack of pullbacks is actually encouraging for me from a NewR user in that it has kept me from going short when every other measure would have normally done so. Furthermore I've been able to go long at times when I hitherto would never have dreamed of doing.

Well Tom I hope you feeling better. We've been having some good fun trying to nail this sucker and I think Santa is just around the corner. Finster, you being right about that 3rd c4 of mine led me to consider those options on your previous post more closely and I couldnt help but to come to this conclusion. Until the S&P breaks above 1219.80 the rule is still in effect which leaves no other option but to go with your option 1. Our count is out. Something that has always been working on my mind is that non retrending b that I posted on a tick chart a while earlier which Ive reposted below. Either way you look at that, even on a 5min chart, its a non retrending b and a rule is a rule right. which would make for good practice to eliminate that c4. (just my opionon though). Ive posted another chart with a count that corrisponds to that non retrending b and it looks to me like we are still missing 1 more c4 before we pivot. Dan smells a b today, I must say I smell one too. I've posted that last c4 I have there in a 1 minute frame so chime in guys and let me know what you think. Perry, a few posts back we covered that option and came to the conclusion that the iii you have posted there (which Incendently I also previously considered and posted) is a B because what followes is a definate c4 clear as day. Take care guys and lets see what today brings

1177.4 And I wouldn't bet the farm on that. By the way I can't post the link but I suggest you google FED POMO dates to get a handle on when they will juice the markets. P.S Opex next week and the Fed is usually a heavy net buyer around this time.

YES, I see that (and the non-retrending b), leading to a conclusion that the top is in. While I think a top may be in, I'll feel better when we drop below 1155.71. Also, having been through this during the never ending wave spanning February to April, don't get too aggressive or confident that we have topped. My recollection is that we had several false confirmations of a top and kept changing our counts.