March Madness lessons (and other hoops notes)

So how’d your bracket turn out? Mine started out strong (28 of 32 games picked correctly the first two days) and then fizzled out big time (only one correct Final Four team — Florida — which I inexplicably picked to lose to Kansas in the semis).

With the Final Four heading to San Antonio next year, I need to reflect on my mistakes and do a better job next year, so I don’t embarrass myself in front of all of our out-of-town guests. Some lessons learned:

• Acknowledge the obvious: Sure, it would have been boring and predictable to pick Florida, because almost everyone was picking the Gators. But do you want to get it right or not? If a defending champ returns all its starters, for goodness sake, pick ‘em. Next year, if Ohio State’s star freshmen Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. decide to come back, you might think about making the Buckeyes your title pick.

• Make the Big 12 prove it’s worthy: Turned out the selection committee knew what it was doing by only giving four tournament berths to one of the so-called power conferences. I thought the conference, top to bottom, was tougher than that, which comes from watching too many Big 12 games on TV. My rationale went something like, “Gee, Baylor finished near the bottom, and Texas beat them three times by a total of 11 points.”

• Give no weight to conference tournaments: Kansas won the Big 12 tournament, while UCLA got knocked out early in the Pac-10 tourney. So what happened when the two met in an Elite Eight game? UCLA handed Kansas its head. And I thought Texas would beat USC in part because the Trojans looked terrible in losing the Pac-10 final to Oregon. Yes, Florida won the SEC tournament, but Florida is the exception that proves the rule.

• Pay attention to the venue: My worst pick was Stanford over Louisville. I ignored the fact that the game was being played in Lexington, Ky., which made it a home game for the Cardinals, who jumped out to a 30-point lead practically before the first commercial break. Of course, I thought the Alamodome factor would propel Texas A&M to the Final Four. I guess Rule 2 trumped Rule 4.

• Don’t pick upsets: I actually did pretty well on this front. I didn’t pick any George Masons to make the Final Four mainly because that happens once in a blue moon and when it does, no one will see it coming anyway. You’ll get a lot more picks wrong trying to get the one longshot right. I did call Winthrop over Notre Dame, but I stopped there, figuring they only had one upset in them. Which was true.

• Make up your mind: Are you picking who you think will win or who you want to win? Whatever the case, stick with it. Don’t mix ‘em up like I did. I’m convinced I didn’t pick Florida to win it all because I wanted it to be someone else’s turn. Not exactly a sound basketball judgment.

A Spurs note

On my March 16 appearance on KISS-FM (I’m on every Friday about 9:10 a.m., usually to talk about Weekender but occasionally the Spurs or whatever), I offered my Theory of the One-Game Road Trip as being at least partially responsible for the Spurs somehow losing to teams they shouldn’t — at home and on the road. They had lost to Milwaukee the night before, breaking their 12-game win streak, and they would follow up the next night by losing to Boston. I also added I was concerned about the upcoming one-game roadie to Indiana.

KISS morning show co-host John Lisle suggested that I was into conspiracy theories and suggested other possible explanations, like Tim Duncan’s fatherhood and Tony Parker’s impending marriage. Well, look what happened Sunday in Indiana. The Spurs have lost three games since the All-Star break — two one-game road trips and the home game that followed the Milwaukee loss. (You can hear the whole thing on the podcast at www.kissrocks.com if you’re really bored).

By all rights, the Spurs should thrash Seattle tonight. The Sonics are out of playoff contention and missing their best player, Ray Allen. And the Spurs thrashed them by 41 a week ago. Sound familiar?