This Week’s Top Stories: Millennials Are Leaving Toronto and Vancouver, and Homeowners There Have Billions Worth of HELOC Debt

Canadian Real Estate

Canadians are rapidly borrowing against the values in their home. The outstanding balance of Home equity line of credits (HELOCs) across Canada is now $201 billion. This trend is (not surprisingly) concentrated in Canada’s largest cities. Homeowners in Toronto have $45.36 billion in HELOCs, about 22.47% of the total balance. Vancouver homeowners have $24.58 billion in HELOCs, 12.18% of the total balance. Toss in Montreal, and you have nearly half of all HELOC debt in the country, without including other major cities like Calgary and Ottawa.

Canadians have a massive pile of mortgage debt, and now we finally know where it’s concentrated. The outstanding balance is now $1.2 trillion according to the CMHC, and more than a third is located in just two cities. Toronto has $268 billion in mortgage debt, 22.3% of total outstanding mortgage debt. Vancouver has $133 billion in mortgage debt, 11.1% of the total outstanding mortgage debt. Unsurprisingly, it’s concentrated in the cities where prices have been climbing the most.

Statistics Canada crunched the numbers, and determined the total value of all Canadian real estate. The national statistics agency valued the residential real market at $4.8 trillion in 2015, up 7.42% from the year before. The value is more than double what it was just 10 years ago, showing exuberance isn’t just concentrated to a few regions in the country.

Intraprovincial migration numbers show more locals are abandoning Toronto and Vancouver. From 2012 to 2017, 142,465 more people left Toronto for other other parts of the province, than arrived. In Vancouver, 18,670 more people left than arrived, for other parts of the province. The change in trend is particularly strong with millennials. Don’t worry, the cities are still growing largely due to increased immigration.

Toronto Real Estate

Toronto’s detached real estate market is in correction mode. The benchmark price for a detached home is now $927,800, a 10.35% decline compared to last year. The City of Toronto saw the benchmark drop to $1,109,700, down 9.55%. The detached market appears to be taking back some of the massive gains made last year.