The concept of evolution trend

Regularities in development . Trends of evolution are regularities
observed
in the history of technology. Most regularities are statistical trends, but there are some trends
which we can consider as universal laws. Laws and regularities are formulated as the result
of the the study of huge mass of innovations and inventions.

"Short cut". By the trends we can try to forecast "directly" a solution and
features
of an ideal system.

System

Feature 1

Feature 2

Originalsystem

+

-

......

-

+

Ideal finalresult

+

+

How to get benefits from the trends?

Trends are useful tools in many ways:

We can choose right problems. Does the solution, if achieved, simplify the system
compared to functions and features? Will the useful features from alternative systems
used? Are the old techonologies used to get a new solution? Does the solution, if
achieved, fulfil the requirements of the ideal final result?

We can decrease risks. Projects, not directed to the ideal final
result, can be rejected, and losses avoided.

We can detect weak signals. Trends help to see new opportunities, as well as
new conflicts and problems, in the same beginning

We can begin to develope next-generation products before competitors. Due to
detecting weak signals we can begin good projects more early.

We can improve investment decisions. Trends help to select promising projects and
invest money more effectively.

We can find invisible customer needs. Often customers cannot pronounce their needs in the
future. Trends help to identify new needs.

We can collect and create knowledge effectively. Trends help to select and classify
information.

We can make more reliable techological forecasts by the trends

Universal laws

Regularities appearing always. Some universal rules are hidden
in the Two
Pluses Matrix. If we have a problem or "minus", the system should have useful features,
"pluses", too. If it hadnīt, we could simply remove the whole system. When the system
evolves, minuses disappear and pluses remain. The ideality of the system grows
inevitably. The ideal final result has again some new minuses, and the cycle is
repeated. The features of alternative systems are combined. The result is a
bisystem. A new bisystem is again combined with an alternative system. The
result of successive feature combinations is a polysystem. So we can formulate
three general laws:
- the spiral of evolution
- the increasing ideality of a system
- trend mono-bi-poly
In all innovations we can see the influence of these three laws.

For example the history of the bicycle:
A solution: a horselike frame with two wheels in 1791
A new contradiction: you can move sitting on the wood horse, but how to steer the vehicle?
A solution: a front wheel which can be turned (Karl v. Drais 1817)
A new contradiction: you can steer, but cannot get speed enough kicking by legs
A solution: pedals in 1861 (Pierre Michaux), "boneshaker"
A new contradiction: higher speed requires bigger wheel ("Ordinary" bicycle appears), but
a big wheel is uncomfortable
A solution: a chain-drive rear wheel in 1885 (John Kemp Starley)
A new contradiction: more speed means more vibration and shocks
A solution: pneumatic tires in 1888 (Dunlop)
A new contradiction: cranks are rotating all the time, whether it is needed or not
A solution: freewheel 1894
A new contradiction: a bike was impractical for off-road riding
A solution: the mountain bike in 1970s
Etc.

The ideality of the engineering system
Different types of ideal systems: Ideal machine. Ideal process. Ideal material. A system
simplified by trimming

For example the history of the bicycle:

Improving features compared to weight. An all-metal bicycle in 1870s weighed
about 25 kg. A bicycle in 1990, built using composites, weighed 12 kg. At the same
time features are increased and improved.

For example the history of the bicycle:
In the same beginning the bicycle combined two ways of transport: riding a horse and
walking. The first bike was a hobby-horse with two wheels. A cyclist sat on a beam and
and pushed the feet against the ground. Karl von Drais removed the head of hobby-horse
and converted the front wheel into a steering mechanism. So the cyclist could turn the
vehicle like the rider guiding the horse. When the pedals where invented, the bike could be
driven without the feet touching the ground. When the chain transmission was introduced,
the cyclist could already sit on the saddle as comfortably as on horseback. The development
of the mountain bike in 1970s added yet one feature of the horse: capability to run outside
roads.

The basic concept of the bicycle is the bisystem combining the pluses or good FEATURES
of riding and walking. Today we donīt usually think of the mount as one prototype of the
cycle. But in 19th century people often compared the bike to the horse. The bicycle was
"the horse who is saddled all the time and eats nothing".

If the initial bicycle concept can be considered as a bisystem, the mature bike is a polysystem
combining many features and technologies:
- Wire-spoked tension wheel, patented by Edward Cowper in 1868, but invented by George
Cailey fon an aircraft already in 1808
- Chain transmission
- Pneumatic tire, patented by John Dunlop 1888, but used by R. W. Thompson already 1846
in a horse-drawn brougham
- Lamps, cyclometers, bells etc.
- In last years electronics, as different meters and microchips for detecting stolen bikes

For example the history of electronics:
- Monosystem: doped semiconductor (p or n)
- Bisystem: two semiconductors - diod (pn-junction)
- Bisystem: two diods - transistor (pnp or npn)
- Polysystem: great number of transistors, for example 5 millions
- Polysystem: electronics embedded in all sorts of devices and machines, mechatronics

Many systems outside technology are polysystems:
- Ways of marketing
- The quality cultrure of a company
- The core competence of a company
- The cluster of many companies

In activity systems or in polysystems of organisations one can often see very clearly, that isolated
parts are weak or totally worthless, but the composition generates the superior quality.

Statistical trends

About the system of trends
We call statistical trends the lines of development which are seen when a great number of
innovations are studied. For example, one has detected that a solid monolith often
evolves to a porous subject. The trend doesnīt mean that always when we have a
solid object, the following stage of development should be a hollow body. But the
statistical trends give interesting hypotheses.

In different sources a little bit different systems of trends are presented. The presentation
here is based mainly on IMLab software and works of Altshuller, Salamatov, Linde and
others.

Trimming trend
The line of evolution:
The engineering system evolves to the more trimmed structure. The same function
is carried out by smaller number of parts or processes.

Examples, the history of the bicycle:
Wheel with many spokes - with three or
four spokes - with one "spoke" or a disk wheel. Frame from may tubes - one tube
frame (monocoque).

Dynamization
The line of evolution (IMLab):
immobile system - a joint - many joints - elastic system - liquid/gas - fields
Generally: the system capable to change its properties

Examples from the history of a bicycle: tire, suspension, a spoke wheel which also
works as a suspension and a shock absorber.
Other examples: an air cushion in the car, traffic signs which can change according to
weather and traffic density

Coordination
Lines of evolution:
Geometrical form and materials
Rhythm (IMLab): No vibrations - vibrations - resonance - vibrations coordination -
- standing/traveling waves
Coordination in time and place:
An electrically assisted bicycle is interesting because of additional power is provided
during acceleration and climbing.

An example of introducing additive:
More healthy salts: by adding potassium chlorid and magnesium sulfate to common salt
(NaCl) harmful side effects are decreased and the taste preserved

An example of using resource substance:
To increase washing efficiency washing material is usually added to water. Steam washing
allows to exclude washing chemical, or water itself is used as "additive"

Improving energy conductivity
The line of evolution:
More developed systems "conduct" energy better.

The history of a bicycle: a reduced weight, a chain transmission and other improvements
have allowed to converse the muscular energy better to kinetic energy.

Another example: A typical chain of energy conversion is first to get hot gas, second to get steam,
third to get mechanical energy, and fourth to get electrical energy. New energy technologies
make the chain shorter. For example conversion of heat directly to electroenergy.
Anders Killander proposes to use one of thermo-electric effects, Seebeck effect,
for getting small amounts of electric energy from a wood-fired stove.
See A. Killander. Generating Electricity for Families in Northern Sweden,TRIZ Journal, January 1997

S-curve.
The change of the quantitative features of the system in time follows a well-known
S-curve. It is not possible to forecast the shape of the curve. But it is
useful to think about where on the curve we may be and how the curve can evolve in
future.

Curves in the history of a bicycle:
- "Draisienne"
- Cranks and pedals added
- Ordinary with large wheel
- Safety with the rear-wheel chain drive
- Last big wave: mountain bike
- The increasing diameter of a wheel in 19th century, before the chain transmission
- Materials: steel, aluminium, composites

Study of trends with a computer

- IMC has just released new software package TechOptimizer 2.5 Professional Edition,
in which are considered 20 engineering system trends, seeInvention Machine Corporation

Examples of applications

The evolution of the bicycle.

Letīs try to envision the future of the bicycle. Spirals of evolution:
The diameter of a wheel. The invention of a chain transmission in last century shrinked the
wheel to the common diameter today. We can forecast the following cycle: maybe the electrical
transmission allows to make a wheel much smaller. A new question: efficiency of electrical
transmission? The weight of devices?
The faired bicycle is weatherproof. A new problem: the windsail effect. A new solution: a low
centre of gravity.

Increasing idealness. We can predict the improvement of aerodynamics. A recumbent with a
fairing can cut drug by about 70 per cent compared to a a standard bike. Compare with a car.
Aerodynamically a common bicycle reminds of the car in the beginning of century.

Possible bisystems or feature combinations:
- The features of a diamond frame AND a monocoque frame
- The features of a common or upright bike AND a recumbent
- The features of chain drive AND belt drive

Mono-bi-poly. Feature transfer from motorcycles to bicycles. The combination of the features of
small cars and bicycles. Improvements in environment, related to the development of bicycle.
For example roads with roofs - tubes for bicycle drivers.

The polysystem of solutions. The bicycle of future may be collected from the technologies known
today, or more exactly, from the features of old technologies. For example:
- Monocoque frame (Lotus)
- Small wheels (Alex Moulton)
- Electic motor for acceleration and climbing (for example Yamaha)
- Automatic belt transmission (for example Spinenergy)
- Etc.

Trimming. Simplifying of chain to one part. From many spokes to one "spoke".
Simplifying the transmission.

Segmentation. Chain. Bearings. We can wait "microlevel solutions".

Dynamization. Collapsible bikes will be improved and become more common. Use of
computers. An electronic control already makes possible to set the bike to automatically
set gear ratios to maintain a certain speed, pedalling cadence, or heart rate. Try to
imagine evolution in future!