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What is everyone's guestimate on CONFIG / PRICE unveil?

What is everyone's guestimate on CONFIG / PRICE unveil?

Submitted by brian on Mon, 2017-05-22 05:49

If the timeline is still to start producing the 3 in July... let's even say it'll be the last day of July for the heck of it... wouldn't they need to start allowing configs VERY SOON? The key to a successful production for this kind of launch is keeping the pipeline filled with orders. That means you need a healthy supply of COMMITTED buyers. Since we know that some will back out ultimately based on price, having multiple orders, not being quite ready or other factors... plus, they have stated they aren't going to complicate things right off the bat, so they also need to know who wants what IN their car. (AWD, type of roof, etc.)

So, if they plan to produce 5K per week, you almost need to ask 15K/wk to configure and commit to price to ensure a healthy pipeline... and then you still have to nail down delivery timelines based on regions and transportation volumes to each area. My point being... it seems like we have to be getting very close to asking people for those commits (which also means sharing final pricing) and I personally thought we'd have seen that stage by now if July is still their target. (I know July is really just employees, but even if staff filled up the July and August calendar (which I doubt) - we're still easily within 90 days of production for "the rest of us" - no?

Thoughts?

alphacompton |
22 mai 2017

I can't remember if it was confirmed or just a guess but I read somewhere that the employees configuration page is already up. The assumption is that non-employee config page should be up in July after production starts or at the very least after the final unveil of the retail Model 3. Also production won't be 5K per week at first, Tesla officially said that production will ramp up to that number by the end of the year and they will be starting production at 1K per week. This was a guess I read somewhere based on one of those tracker sites but it sounds like there are around 30K employee cars waiting to be built. With the expected rate of production it should take most of the second half of the year to fulfill the employee queue of cars.

Red Sage ca us |
22 mai 2017

~*SIGH*~ OK. Lookit... Tesla has already told us they intend to do Deliveries in an orderly fashion. Proceeding from areas nearest the factory on the West Coast of the U.S. and then from region to region Eastward. So when it comes to a need to 'nail down delivery timelines' that can be handle simply by only extending invitations to Configure within a limited portion of a particular region at a time.

When you are just beginning Production, you may not need more than 1,000 Confirmed orders per week. If those Confirmations were received four weeks to twelve weeks earlier, everything needed to build the cars should be on hand. There is no need to put out 15,000 Invitations to build 1,000 cars.

Tesla already has a 'healthy pipeline' of 400,000 Reservations to fulfill. The goal will be to ramp up from 1,000 per week to 2,000 per week, to 4,000 per week with the goal of being at no less than 5,000 per week by the end of the year. They will have already informed their Suppliers that they should be ready to drop off anywhere from 4,000 to 10,000 units per week in a Just-In-Time (JIT) manner with anywhere from one to four weeks notice.

This is nothing to worry about at all.

alphacompton |
22 mai 2017

My guess is that the configuration page will go live at the end of July or beginning of August and non-employee's will start to receive their car 3 months later ( around 3 months is the expected delivery window) which would give us a Novemberish time frame for delivery of those who already own a Tesla and those who waited in line in the physical store.

alphacompton |
22 mai 2017

I'm guessing 3 months based on old data I Googled, it could be much less now but I assume the amount of orders could cause delays regardless.

KP in NPT |
22 mai 2017

@alphacomption, Teslarati is reporting that first deliveries (to the first employees, presumably) will be in July. So I would expect the configurator to open for the first non employee group then or soon thereafter.

A lot of it will depend on how many employees reserved and how fast they ramp up production. If there are only 5K employee reservations (I'd be surprised if it were that few) then they'd need to open it up to non-employees pretty quick, if not even before the July delivery event. On the other hand if there are 15K employees waiting then they could possibly not have to let other configure until sometime in late August.

Personally I'm thinking it'll be shortly, if not immediately, after the July event. I could easily see Elon closing the event by saying that the first non-employee configuration invites are going out that night for September delivery.

Red Sage ca us |
22 mai 2017

dsvick: +21! Agreed.

matt80206 |
22 mai 2017

I thought Tesla only had a total of 14k employees (as of 1/2016) so with solarcity maybe 20k now?, I would assume most of them already have s or x... well managers +... so figured only 5-10k ordered 3's, I would think a employee saturation of 60% for owning a tesla would be high, not sure though.

Bluesday Afternoon |
22 mai 2017

@matt80206

Don't forget the SpaceX employees. It's closer to 30,000 employees and your assumption that "...most of them already have s or x..." is far from reality. I do agree with a projected 10,000 employee orders for Model 3.

skygraff |
22 mai 2017

Based on simplicity of design and already stated intent to delay certain options, I'm guessing the assembly line will roll before any configurations are known. Deliveries will proceed in the order of those (within the local employee group) whose chosen configurations match the stock. Those requesting configurations which are not yet available will simply get a slightly delayed delivery date which won't contradict Tesla's announced rollout since option availability is at their discretion.

I'm sure Tesla will do a fine job of filling all the internal and external order options by, like the Model T, ensuring the options available are the ones available for order at the time.

PhillyGal |
22 mai 2017

I tend to agree that the config page needs to be up soon. And for the same reasons - wouldn't they want to build for an existing order? Color, options, etc like they do now?

skygraff |
22 mai 2017

I don't disagree but, with 400,000+ reservations and limited options planned (including colors), it doesn't take a supercomputer to figure out the odds of building what will be ordered. That would allow them to get a head start on deliveries even as they start ramping up production based on actual orders. I think they'll actually make some initial deliveries the day they open the configurator. Either they'll do this immediately based on pre-surveys or by opening internal config in morning and holding the official announcement ceremony in the afternoon (since configurator will leak anyway) culminating with first deliveries.

One way or the other, looking forward to the next few months!

Bluesday Afternoon |
22 mai 2017

I want to see the Design Studio now! That way I can get an early start on waiting.

stockbandit91 |
22 mai 2017

Config will happen no later than announced live at the end of July unveil for the 1st non-employee batch. Q2 deliveries almost irrelevant for the stock price, but Q3 results and update on production about 1 month into Q4 will be a huge deal.

SamO |
22 mai 2017

Tesla batches production and deliveries. Model 3 will likely be no different.

Red Sage ca us |
22 mai 2017

skygraff wrote, "I'm sure Tesla will do a fine job of filling all the internal and external order options by, like the Model T, ensuring the options available are the ones available for order at the time."

Precisely. Ah, if only I could be so concise. Oh, yeah... +21!

Bluesday Afternoon |
22 mai 2017

@skygraff and Red Sage

What options will Tesla's "Model T" have? Will I be able to choose black or will I be stuck with black?

matt80206 |
22 mai 2017

Did one else see the article where tesla hints at no bio defense for the model 3, that's almost more important than the 0-60 lol

Mapowing |
22 mai 2017

A mock up design configurator and store our preferred choices, this way it would help Tesla to at least gauge the market on the options they need to stock up in order to ramp up their production...like everyone else in the forum, PLEASE let us play with the design while waiting...

Red Sage ca us |
22 mai 2017

Simply Red: You always have the option of either: 1) taking the vehicle to your friendly neighborhood automobile customizing paint shop; or 2) holding your breath until Porsche or AUDI or BMW or Mercedes-Bends builds the electric car of your dreams! ;-)

Red Sage ca us |
22 mai 2017

matt80206: Yeah. That's another point that has me down. I hate the gasperations from diesel trucks.