"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns;there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we don't know we don't know."
Donald Rumsfeld

Monday, October 12, 2015

Do you wanna know the real reason Putin is in Syria? Read this!

The widely accepted narrative for Russia's recent increased involvement in Syria includes their longtime support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as well as the geopolitical vacuum left by a retreating U.S. But the real reason can be summed up in one word: oil.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting with members of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, October 1, 2015.

No doubt, U.S. retrenchment has opened the door for Russian adventurism in the Middle East. But the short-term impact will be higher oil prices.

With Russia and allied Iran increasing their presence throughout the Middle East, ostensibly to combat ISIS, Saudi Arabia stands with a large target on its back. Iran has been recognized by the Saudi leadership as an existential threat. Saudi Arabia's principle tool to counter Iran adventurism has been increasing oil production, which pressures the price of oil and keeps the Iranian economy weak.

Iran, of course, has not been the only player hurt by lower oil prices. The Russian economy has been hammered by the one-two punch of sanctions imposed from their involvement in Ukraine and the drop in oil prices.

Now with Russia's growing presence in Syria, a partnership with Iran and a retreating U.S., Saudi Arabia is faced with a new and unfriendly world. Without confidence that the U.S. will have its back, Saudi Arabia may feel compelled to bend to Russia and Iran's inevitable pressure to reduce oil production. And this will lead to greater pressure for all OPEC countries to reduce production and support higher prices.

The crisis in Syria is not contained to Syria or to the Middle East and the impact of U.S. retrenchment will be felt in the West sooner than later.

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