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A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

phil882

Posted 21 April 2011 - 11:38 PM

Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

am19psu

Posted 22 April 2011 - 12:14 AM

Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

phil882

Posted 22 April 2011 - 09:28 AM

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical.

It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects don't look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS.

am19psu

Posted 22 April 2011 - 10:00 AM

It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects doing look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS.

Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low.

phil882

Posted 22 April 2011 - 10:22 AM

Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low.

Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource

The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning.