Bill Tieleman is one of BC's best known communicators, political commentators and strategists.
Bill writes a politics column Tuesdays in 24 Hours newspaper and The Tyee online magazine.
Bill has been Communications Director in the B.C. Premier's Office and at the BC Federation of Labour.
Bill owns West Star Communications, a consulting firm providing strategy and communication services for labour, business, non-profits and government.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

By BILL TIELEMANFor many men that stumble at the threshold are well foretold that danger lurks within. - William Shakespeare, Henry VI

It was a stunning election win for Gregor Robertson on Saturday night, as Vision Vancouver nearly annihilated the Non-Partisan Association city government on council, school and park board.

In Burnaby, Mayor Derek Corrigan's Burnaby Citizens Association did more sweeping than a curling bonspiel, taking every single council and school board seat.

In New Westminster, Mayor Wayne Wright and labour-endorsed council candidates not only fought off a well-funded challenge from a new centre-right political party, but actually increased their support.

In Victoria, new Mayor-elect Dean Fortin - endorsed by prominent New Democrats - will be joined on council by every member of his team, including former NDP MP Lynn Hunter.

In Prince George, Dan Rogers becomes the new mayor with support from the local labour council, after he helped lead the fight against B.C. Liberal privatization of B.C. Rail in 2003.

And an Angus Reid Strategies poll released Saturday shows the B.C. New Democrats have increased their lead over the B.C. Liberals by a margin of 44 per cent to 39 per cent.

Premier Gordon Campbell didn't wake up on a very Happy Planet on Sunday - because the results of key municipal elections combined with the latest polling numbers show the next election will not be a smoothie for the B.C. Liberals.

One could overstate the importance of what happens with local government votes or polling six months before the May 2009 provincial vote.

But it's very clear that when centre-left candidates win big in Metro Vancouver, Victoria and the north - regions of the province that will determine who governs British Columbia in the next election - Campbell has to be worried.

Campbell has particular reason to be concerned about the Vancouver results that saw the Non-Partisan Association lose its majorities at all three civic levels to Vision Vancouver and partners the Coalition Of Progressive Voters and the civic Greens - because Campbell was himself an NPA mayor before entering provincial politics.

And losing mayoral candidate Peter Ladner stated that the politician he admires most is Campbell and that the B.C. Liberals best reflected his provincial politics views.

That's the same Campbell who only 21 per cent of respondents to the Angus Reid poll say is trustworthy.

The provincial election is going to be far more competitive than many people thought just months ago.

Two positive notes: For the first time, city voters elected a person of Aboriginal descent to public office - Vision Vancouver school trustee Ken Clement.

And for the first time since 1972, voters elected a member of the South Asian community to civic office - Vision Vancouver park board commissioner Raj Hundal.

NOTE 1: NPA School Trustee Ken Denike kindly let me know when he saw this column in 24 hours that Harkapal Sara was a South Asian community school trustee in the 1980s - thanks to Ken for the update.NOTE 2:Ipsos released a new poll November 18 saying that according to their research the BC Liberals are at 44%, (down 3 points) the NDP are at 35%, (up 2 points) and the Greens are at 16%, (unchanged). Both polling firms are too polite to argue their numbers in public but presumably, one of them is wrong.

UPDATE - NOTE 3: A 24 hours reader has let me know that what he believe is the first person in the Lower Mainland of Filipino descent was elected to public office - school trustee Rod Belleza in Richmond.

5 comments:

Anonymous
said...

If the Provincial NDP had a leader like Gregor Robertson, Gordon Campbell would be doomed. But instead they have Carole James. The question is, whether, after taking a good long look at her, BC voters will still want to get rid of Gordo.

"Watts cruised to a second term, more than 40,000 votes ahead of a token opponent. She carried her entire Surrey First slate with her. Bose was the only member of the NDP-allied civic party to win a seat on council.

Still, that didn't prevent some New Democrats from citing the results in Surrey as evidence of a supposed "shift to the left" in the weekend civic elections.

To make the case, they had to overlook how Watts got her start in a campaign run by Kevin Falcon, now a B.C. Liberal cabinet minister.

Those who professed to see a shift to the NDP had to ignore inconvenient results in other key communities.

New Democrats in Nanaimo staked their hopes on Diane Brennan, who stepped down from council to challenge incumbent Mayor Gary Korpan.

Korpan had indeed overstayed his welcome after 15 years at city hall. He finished well out of the running, in third place.

But Brennan wasn't the beneficiary. She finished second. Nanaimo's new mayor is John Ruttan, the owner of a travel agency and a Liberal supporter.

NDP MLA Michael Sather set his sights on the incumbent mayor in his home community of Maple Ridge.

Sure enough, on election night, Mayor Gordy Robson, a mavericks' maverick, was retired by the voters. He and Sather were beaten handily by former councillor Ernie Daykin, who is arguably to the right of both of them.

Yes, but the big push the NDP got from their carbon tax stance is quickly running out of steam, especially with the cost of oil dropping, and they face the downside now of a green backlash and vote splitting on the left.

The NDP needs to take a page from the Happy Planet success manual and figure out very quickly how to forge a broad centre-left coalition if they want to have any hope of winning next May.

NOTE FROM BILL TIELEMAN - This comment has been edited for defamatory comments - please remember that libel laws apply to the Internet!

* * * * *

Anon 7.32 pm

Angus reid is not connected with Ipsos reid--

The Angus reid poll is correct,the Ipsos Reid poll is XXXXX!

Ever since Canwest Global partnered up with Ipsos Reid in 2005 their BC polls XXXXX

Here is the link announcing the Canwest Global-Ipsos Reid partnership

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2838

I have carefully gone through the detailed tables on both polls and the Ipsos Reid polls is XXXXX pathetic,for example

#1-Ipso Reid claims the BC Liberals and the NDP are in a statistical tie on Vancouver island,no way,the island is a NDP stronghold,always has been-

-The Angus Reid Poll has the NDP leading the Liberals on Vancouver island 50% to 39% --That seem about right, considering almost every riding on the island is held by the NDP

#2--Ipsos Reid has the BC Liberals leading in the GVRD 46% to 33%--Not likely, especially after 10s of millions of non stop advertising by Campbell and he still got trounced in the bi-elections--Angus Reid poll has the NDP leading the Liberals in the GVRD by 4 points--

People look for yourselves the ridiculous spread Ipsos Reid has in all areas, XXXXX -- Also the Ipsos Reid polls for the last 3 years have been clones/identical results, that just doesn`t happen in BC

Here are the links to the detailed tables on both polls, Angus Reid poll is right, Ipsos Reid poll is XXXXX for XX Canwest Global

Bill Tieleman and Senator Larry Campbell, former Vancouver mayor

Jim Sinclair, Cindy Oliver, Ken Georgetti and Bill Tieleman

Bill Tieleman's coverage of the Basi-Virk/BC Legislature Raid Case praised by other journalists:

"This outstanding piece of journalism, in The Tyee, is the work of a journalist who has been deeply involved with this issue from the start and this article should be passed on as far and wide as possible."

"Bill Tieleman from 24 hours . . . . If you want to know about this trial and about this case, you have to read his blog – I mean, that’s just all there is to it – it’s required reading if you want to understand the BC Legislature Raid situation."

- Mike Smyth, columnist, The Province

"The Basi-Virk case....you’ve probably sat through more of these hearings and gone through more of the files and written about it than any other journalist in the province."

- Bill Good, host, The Bill Good Show, CKNW/Corus Radio Network

"Tieleman ...has done a first-rate job covering the trial."

- Paul Willcocks, columnist, the Victoria Times-Colonist

"Tieleman, who marries a considerable journalistic talent with one of the smartest political minds in the province, has been writing more web-exclusive material. And his coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is a must-read -- whether you're an insider or an outsider."

"24 Hours, the Vancouver paper that has been leading the coverage, as well as the hints of conspiracy in B.C."

- Norman Spector, columnist, Globe and Mail

"Although the major media in this circumstance has been giving the case significant coverage, Tieleman's reports on his blog have been outstanding.

The entire cut and thrust of legal wrangling and arguments has been covered and is accompanied by considered analysis.....His blog site coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is the most in depth treatment of one of British Columbia's biggest political scandals."

- Bill Bell, columnist, The North Shore News

"Mr. Tieleman has published online dispatches which, freed from the limitations of newsprint space or broadcast time, can run at length. They also remain available for those select readers who become obsessed with a case also known as Railgate.....

In another bizarre twist to a story with no shortage of them, Mr. Tieleman went to work one day in December only to discover his office had been ransacked. Bookcases had been tipped over and papers strewn, but nothing was missing.

To top it off, a press kit for the self-published novel The Raid, written by a retired military officer in Metchosin and featuring on its cover a photograph from the 2003 police raid, had been left in a conspicuous place."

- Tom Hawthorn, columnist, The Globe and Mail

Nobody has followed the Basi-Virk affair over its past five years with greater diligence than local journalist, Bill Tieleman....Tieleman deserves our thanks, a fistful of journalism awards and some merit citation for citizenship.