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One more thought: If the Nov election goes against the liberal tree-huggers; I suspect the new head of EPA (whomever Mitten appoints) will be less aggressive. Might even let a few laws slide if it is good for an economic recovery.

Around here: Most equipment folks had R-22 equipment available well into the AC season of 2010 (when it was no longer made). So given the average life of 12-15 years (less for DRY units I suspect), I think we could safely say R-22 AC units (and HP's) will be around in serious numbers until at least 2020.

I guess I need to figure out how much I would use between now and 2020... say, 6-7 years to be conservative.

The other thing I am thinking: The FED (folks that control the money supply) have been increasing money at the rate of 20+% for over a year now... sooner or later price inflation will set in along with EPA 'poo'. Either/both will cause the price to go up more.

I get R-12 (yes, those cute little 1# cans) a the local auto supply for around $10/ea. None of my vehicles use 12 anymore (years ago)... but sometimes I need one or two.

Yea, I remember purchasing R-12 at the auto store for next to nothing.

The average lifespan of a car manufactured in the 80's and early 90's wasn't as long as it is now. The R-12 to R-134a switchover there was relatively quick and painless.

R-22 would also be a good hard asset with a steady demand. (in my opinion) If you converted your dollars now into R-22, you would definitely make out way above inflation... Especially when I see another round of printing money on the horizon (QE3).

I am thinking about buying about a 5 year supply as it would be a safe bet.

One more thought: If the Nov election goes against the liberal tree-huggers; I suspect the new head of EPA (whomever Mitten appoints) will be less aggressive. Might even let a few laws slide if it is good for an economic recovery.

Yea, not to get political but I do not have a lot of faith in Mitt being able to win it... As long as Obama holds the economy together from a complete collapse, I think that he has a good chance of getting his second term.

Furthermore, I do not see much difference between Mitt and Obama as their top donor's are are all the same. I just do not have much faith that Mitt will change anything.

Also, big business loves to use the govt to drive up prices. Keeping the R-22 supply restricted, means more profit on selling R-22 and new R-410a equipment.

Yea, I remember purchasing R-12 at the auto store for next to nothing.

The average lifespan of a car manufactured in the 80's and early 90's wasn't as long as it is now. The R-12 to R-134a switchover there was relatively quick and painless.
R-22 would also be a good hard asset with a steady demand. (in my opinion) If you converted your dollars now into R-22, you would definitely make out way above inflation... Especially when I see another round of printing money on the horizon (QE3).

I am thinking about buying about a 5 year supply as it would be a safe bet.

Tony

With or without QE3, with or without EPA 'poo'... I think you are right on the hard asset.

I made a killing in gold and silver... unloaded in 2011... (am in Palladium now)... check out North American Palladium, stock symbol PAL on the Amex.

I just wish I had bought more R-22 at Christmas of 2011... it was $129.95, and I probably could have gotten a pallet for $15-20/jug less.

One of the supply houses was selling 410 for $55 a mos ago... limit 10. So I bought 10. Now it is over $100.

Yea, not to get political but I do not have a lot of faith in Mitt being able to win it... As long as Obama holds the economy together from a complete collapse, I think that he has a good chance of getting his second term.

Furthermore, I do not see much difference between Mitt and Obama as their top donor's are are all the same. I just do not have much faith that Mitt will change anything.

Also, big business loves to use the govt to drive up prices. Keeping the R-22 supply restricted, means more profit on selling R-22 and new R-410a equipment.

Tony

All true statements... I see a watered down re-run of 1980 (Reagan revolution) ahead. Folks are broke around here, they want jobs and a brighter future. Literally NOBODY I talk to says they will vote for BHO again... they want more freedom and less govt.

If we really want change in govt (federal level), we need to be SURE control of the Senate goes GOP. Putting Harry Ried out to pasture would make my day, week, month, and even be a nice early Christmas present...

With or without QE3, with or without EPA 'poo'... I think you are right on the hard asset.

I made a killing in gold and silver... unloaded in 2011... (am in Palladium now)... check out North American Palladium, stock symbol PAL on the Amex.

I just wish I had bought more R-22 at Christmas of 2011... it was $129.95, and I probably could have gotten a pallet for $15-20/jug less.

One of the supply houses was selling 410 for $55 a mos ago... limit 10. So I bought 10. Now it is over $100.

Best I have gotten recently on 22 was $289 in lots of 10.

Hard assets are the way to go!

I am speculating that once the 2012 AC season is through, we should see the price of refrigerant drop a bit, before it makes another steep climb next year.

I think that is when I am going to buy in.

What saddens me is that if I was the republican nominee, I would have a chance at winning because the November election is basically going to be a choice between I want more of Obama or I want change.

What also saddens me is that the republican party has, for the most part, sold out. We do not have two parties anymore... We have one with two branches. Both love big government. Both love squashing individual rights. The average American is stupid and defenseless. They need government to survive.

Politicians have become expert salesmen. They convince you that you're sick and they sell you the cure, at a substantial premium.

I am speculating that once the 2012 AC season is through, we should see the price of refrigerant drop a bit, before it makes another steep climb next year.

I think that is when I am going to buy in.

What saddens me is that if I was the republican nominee, I would have a chance at winning because the November election is basically going to be a choice between I want more of Obama or I want change.

What also saddens me is that the republican party has, for the most part, sold out. We do not have two parties anymore... We have one with two branches. Both love big government. Both love squashing individual rights. The average American is stupid and defenseless. They need government to survive.

Politicians have become expert salesmen. They convince you that you're sick and they sell you the cure, at a substantial premium.

That, however, is just my opinion and way off topic.

I agree, hard assets will be a good place for probably another year or so. If Mitten does some good and we get a turn-around of sorts (if it does happen, I think it will be soft); then hard assets may not do quite as well. Until we see the turn... tangibles and hard assets are the way IMO.

I agree, the only choice(s) we have is more 'poo' from the existing source, or a watered down version of similar 'poo'. I did read a profile of Mitten a week or so ago... guy is brilliant as a businessman. Maybe if he has an agreeable congress he can make some headway before the 2014 mid-tern elections. I suspect by mid-term the libs will be re-organized and on the hunt.

One thing is for sure: Resi HVAC work will not go anywhere any time soon... it is a basic staple of life... the reason I chose it.
Folks will have a few things regardless:
*A roof over their head
*Food
*A big flatscreen TV
*Some form of transportation, and
*Heating and AC
Any one of those businesses a guy/gal can make $$$ at... well they will do OK.

Even though I don't like all this EPA stuff, phase out & price hikes etc. it has only helped our business & bottom line. The only negative as far as the A.C. guys are concerned is doing any warranty work where we can't charge for gas if its R22. Everything else the HO bares the burden for.

I don't see any getting rich with 22

Also, when Class I ODS was phased out, HFC refrigerant, compatible lube, seals and service procedure were in their infancy.

With the phase out of R502 and R12 both of which were mainly replaced by 404A and 134a, a lot has been improved in HFC refrigeration by the time R22 restriction kicked in.

So, I don't think R22 phase out will be such a big deal. A leaker gets the refrigerant recovered. New schrader valves are installed and recharged with an approved drop-in. And move-on with life.

There are so many cheap R12 drop-ins that I can't justify buying one of those virgin jugs someone has been holding on to for all these years. Same thing will probably happen with 22. Unit goes flat or needs major service. I'll sell my jug of 22 take the profit and buy a drop-in jug with half of it and something for myself with the other half. Customer gets a "greener" and cheaper alternative.

There are so many cheap R12 drop-ins that I can't justify buying one of those virgin jugs someone has been holding on to for all these years.

Back when R12 was mainstream and getting phased out, alternative refrigerant was a new concept. Now the behavior and applications of of AB, PAG, POE and interaction with residues and oil are well understood from experience.

When interim replacements that use HCFC came into the field, it was understood that they're interim.

When exact fit was more difficult, existing stock commands a higher price, however when it gets to the point that cheaper replacement works real good, the demand for exact replacement goes down.

Refrigerant is like motor oil. It's not supposed to get consumed, but sometimes it does...

If differential fluid was to go to $100/qt from $10/qt but the car has no leak and replacement isn't needed for 150,000 miles, with the small amount used, sticking with original is desirable and the price difference has little effect...

But... its a big deal if a quart of motor oil was upped ten folds for someone with older cars that needs the oil changed every 3,000 and eats a quart every 250 miles.

Same thing will probably happen with 22. Unit goes flat or needs major service. I'll sell my jug of 22 take the profit and buy a drop-in jug with half of it and something for myself with the other half. Customer gets a "greener" and cheaper alternative.
Dan

The excuse to bill higher will only encourage more band aid repair for out of warranty fix, however if it was warranty repair, it would just focus more on repair.