In South Sudan, 2013 ended in political chaos that threatened to develop into civil war. Earlier in the year, Pres. Salva Kiir Mayardit’s government confronted internal dissension within the army and the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). On January 21 the president dismissed 35 major generals in the national army, including six who had served as deputy chiefs of staff. At the end of July, the president dismissed his entire cabinet amid signs of a power struggle within the ruling SPLM, and several days later a new smaller cabinet, ostensibly to downsize the bureaucracy and reduce the cost of central government, was announced. Two glaring omissions from the new cabinet were a former vice president, Riek Machar, and the SPLM secretary-general, Pagan Amum.

South Sudanese government troops mobilize in Juba on December 21, 2013, as ethnic tensions mounted …

Goran Tomasevic—Reuters/Landov

Smoldering ethnic tensions and resentment concerning inequities in power sharing and access to oil wealth and development erupted in armed confrontation on December 15 when gunmen fired on the presidential palace. President Kiir accused Machar of attempting to overthrow the government, although there was little evidence of this. In the following two weeks, the conflict took on an ethnic dimension involving mostly Dinka (the country’s largest ethnic group) forces loyal to President Kiir and Nuer (the second largest group) fighters loyal to Machar. Fighting spread from the capital, Juba, to Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei states, all important oil-bearing states. Control of Bor, a strategic town in Jonglei, traded hands several times, with the Nuer rebels in control at the end of the year. On December 24 the UN announced the discovery of at least one mass grave in South Sudan. At the end of the year, there were at least 1,000 casualties and 180,000 displaced people seeking refuge in UN refugee camps and elsewhere. Regional leaders announced that peace negotiations would take place in Addis Ababa, Eth., at the beginning of 2014. Pres. Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, speaking for a group of eastern African leaders, warned that regional intervention to defeat Machar was being considered. While the situation had not yet assumed a clear political shape, there was widespread fear that it would deteriorate into all-out civil war.

On the economic front, South Sudan hoped for relief when in April 2013 it resumed the transfer of its oil exports through the pipelines and port of its neighbour to the north, Sudan. The exports—which had been suspended the previous year when South Sudan stopped most of its oil production after the two countries could not agree upon a fair price for the use of Sudan’s infrastructure (which led Sudan to confiscate South Sudan’s oil)— were resumed after an agreement was signed in March in Addis Ababa. This arrangement was important to the economies of both countries, especially for landlocked South Sudan, because the only outlet for its oil was through pipelines to Port Sudan, on northern Sudan’s Red Sea coast. Construction plans for alternative pipelines through Kenya, Ethiopia, or Djibouti were under discussion, including one large-scale regional project that would include a pipeline, a highway, and a railway to the port of Lamu, Kenya. Efforts to actualize any of these schemes were slow and difficult to finance, ensuring that the interdependent relationship between South Sudan and Sudan—and associated tension—would continue for some years.

The March agreement also addressed the demilitarization of the 2,000-km (1,500-mi)-long disputed border with Sudan and the withdrawal of both countries’ armies at least 10 km (6 mi) from the contested zone. Additional progress on that front was noted when on November 27 the Joint Security Committee of Sudan and South Sudan announced that it had reached an understanding to resolve various complaints and claims related to border violations and had reaffirmed a commitment to stop supporting each other’s rebel militias. Nonetheless, both sides continued to accuse each other of foul play, and there were frequent outbreaks of hostilities.

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