BETTING THE NFL: Getting an edge with quarterback changes

When it comes to handicapping, you are always looking for those few solid plays that just can’t miss.

Last week, with the oddsmakers giving Jacksonville 27-plus points, even against powerhouse Denver, taking the Jaguars was about as sure a thing as can be when betting the NFL. No matter how bad they may be, teams will respond to something as disrespectful as a 27-point spread. The Jaguars did just that and covered.

This week, we have changes going on that for me will make some teams more competitive than they have been in recent weeks.

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The biggest change this week is quarterback Josh Freeman starting for Minnesota against the Giants. While Freeman hasn’t been a superstar, he brings a strong arm and is someone who can consistently get the ball downfield to receiver Greg Jennings. This could also be Freeman’s last hurrah as a starter. He likely knows it, and at least this week, should respond with a big effort. I like the Vikes to cover.

A quarterback change is also taking place with the Houston Texans, and this one is really intriguing. Undrafted QB Case Keenum makes his first career NFL start in place of injured Matt Schaub (ankle), who has been struggling this season.

Keenum will have his hands full against a tough Kansas City defense, but if the Texans’ offensive line can give Keenum some time, he has the talent to click with Arian Foster coming out of the backfield and Andre Johnson at receiver to produce some big-time stats.

Keenum can throw the ball. As the University of Houston quarterback he was the NCAA’s all-time leader in career passing yardage (19,217) and touchdown passes (155). In the preseason, he completed 43-of-63 passes for 482 yards and three TDs and no interceptions for the Texans.

Maybe the Chiefs win, but I won’t be surprised to see the Texans cover.

Today’s games

New England at Jets (+4): Rob Gronkowski is expected back and Tom Brady will take advantage of it. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 24-17.

Cincinnati at Detroit (-2.5): Lions are 2-0 ATS at home this season. Nowak’s pick: Lions 27-20.

Buffalo at Miami (-8.5): I think the Bills’ run game keeps this one closer than it probably should be. Nowak’s pick: Dolphins 24-20.

Chicago at Washington (-1): Bears QB Jay Cutler has been on a roll and should pick apart the Redskins’ secondary. Nowak’s pick: Bears 30-24.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-2.5): Stay away from this one. Edge to the Eagles at home. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 27-23.

St. Louis at Carolina (-6): Cam Newton will be a tough test for the Rams on the ground and through the air. Nowak’s pick: Panthers 27-17.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7): The Falcons are still banged up, and as a result, I think the Bucs get their first win. Tampa Bay can control this game with Doug Martin, who should have his best game of the season. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 23-20.

San Francisco at Tennessee (+4): While the Titans’ offense isn’t worth writing home about, the defense is decent and should keep this close. Nowak’s pick: 49ers 20-17.

Cleveland at Green Bay (-10): The Packers are without key players on both sides of the ball, while the Browns have been solid on offense and defense. Too many points here. Nowak’s pick: Packers 27-24.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1.5): The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups of these two fierce rivals. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 20-17.

Denver at Indianapolis (+6.5): The marquee game of the weekend as Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis. This is a game where the pointspread should have been 27 as Manning will take no prisoners. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 49-20.

Monday’s game

Minnesota at Giants (-3.5): See above. Nowak’s pick: Vikings 27-17.

Dan Nowak can be reached at dnowak@nhregister.com. Follow Dan on Twitter @nhrDanNowak.