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Saturday, June 15, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Before posting commentslike: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are calculated predictions of scheduled matches. So no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

Hello! Intercontinental cup played in India between July 7 to 19 ( India, Syria, dpr korea and Tajikistan ) is not a fifa recognised tournament nether it falls under official fifa match days window. So will India get ranking points if they win their league matches and possible final?? Does teams get ranking points for matches played outside fifa friendly dates? Will be highly obliged if you reply.

if the Intercontinental Cup is not FIFA recognised, then maybe these matches will not be included in the ranking calculation. It is hard to say with certainty though. FIFA has its own set of rules to determine if a match between two National Teams is included in the ranking calculation or not. Official FIFA recognition is NOT one of those rules, so it could be that these matches will be included in the ranking after all.

And in that case it doesn't matter that the matches are played outside an official FIFA match window. They will count for the ranking then, only calculated with the smallest I-factor (weight) of 5. The points exchanged per match between the teams will be quite small because of that low weight.

Hi, I understand that you predict final and third place matches on July 20th in Pacific games as NZL-FIJ and VAN-SOL. But New Zealand will send their U23 team to this tournament, so their match in any case won't count. As you haven't listed NZL games for group stage, that NZL-FIJ match apparently should be excluded too.

The knock-out matches are listed above because it is not guaranteed that NZL U23 will appear in one of these matches. The 0 or 1 indicates if the match with the predicted opponents will be included (1) or not (0) in the ranking calculation.

Hi Ed. thanks for the posting. Any updates for the July ranking preview that includes recent Copa America and African Cup of Nations. A lot of changes should happen. The African teams don't seem to respect the rule of predictions based on Elo rating.

Yeah, predicting African matches is especially hard, because the African teams are often very competitive and balanced in strength. Absolutely no push-overs, even teams outside the FIFA top-100.I will give an updated preview of the ranking after the Copa America and the Gold Cup are finished. I can say for now that the predicted points gains in the first ranking preview for the participating teams will in general not be realised. Current best climbers are: Haiti (+19 spots), Madagascar and Egypt (+12), Algeria (+11) and the USA (+10). Current 'best droppers' are Burundi (-14 spots), Bolivia (-10) and Nicaragua, Namibia and Trinidad and Tobago (-9).

Hey Amir, the 3rd place play-off in a final tournament like the Copa America is considered as a normal knock-out match in the final stages of such a tournament, so a team can't lose points in such a match and the I-factor is 40.