THE GREAT DISCONNECT — Stocks continue to hit record highs but it’s not at all clear yet if it’s a result of continued easy money and blind hope or the prospect of underlying economic growth picking up speed. Friday’s jobs report — the first of spring — will help answer the question, though not definitively. If the answer is more stagnation, stock prices are going to start looking pretty expensive. And if they tank, the very thin veneer of consumer confidence (which lies on top of a generally morose American psyche) will vanish and things will turn ugly indeed. But until then…

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STOCKS POP — Reuters’ Caroline Valetkevitch: “The S&P 500 closed at another record high .. as signs of steady private-sector hiring suggested that the economy was slowly building momentum after a winter-related pullback. … The jobs report is expected to show that employers added 200,000 to nonfarm payrolls in March, the largest gain in four months …

IMF WARNS OF YEARS OF WEAK GROWTH — FT’s Chris Giles in London and Michael MacKenzie in New York: “Investors pushed global stock markets to post-crisis highs on Wednesday even as the IMF warned that the world faces ‘years of slow and subpar growth’, highlighting the contrast between buoyant traders and cautious policy makers. … The broad US market has now risen 180 per cent since it bottomed during the financial crisis five years ago. …

“Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, warned of several obstacles to a sustained recovery including job-killing ‘low-flation’ in the eurozone and geopolitical tensions stemming from the crisis in Ukraine. She said the prospects of faster growth depended on more investment and structural reforms in labour and product markets http://on.ft.com/OefrCv

DONORS FEAR WINDING UP ON SHAKEDOWN STREET — POLITICO’s Anna Palmer and Tarini Parti: “The biggest Washington donors used to have a great excuse to keep their wallets closed when fundraisers came knocking: Sorry, I’m maxed out. But a Supreme Court ruling swiped that line from them Wednesday when the justices tossed a rule that limited how much an individual can give to candidates, party committees and PACs. Now, fundraisers hope donors, many of them lobbyists, will embrace their new legal right with gusto to give more across the board to candidates and party committees.

“‘I’m horrified, planning to de-list my phone number and destroy my email address,’ said Ken Kies, who, along with his wife, has bumped up against the federal political contribution limits. ‘What I was really hoping for is a ban on lobbyists making contributions entirely.’ While it’s an open question how much new money will come in, it’s certain some will — and insiders are eager to make sure it greases the Washington economy. ‘I’m poor again as a result,’ joked Tony Podesta, a top lobbyist and major donor who is among the small number of K-Streeters who contribute nearly the maximum amount to candidates each election cycle. ‘The fundraising consultants are the only winner in today’s decision.’” http://bit.ly/1hiZfXN

ANOTHER QUAKE OFF CHILE — Reuters: “Chile's emergency office ordered a preventive evacuation of the coastline in the country's north following an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 late on Wednesday. The Andean nation's navy declared a tsunami alert after the quake, which was initially reported as being of magnitude 7.4. The latest earthquake follows a massive 8.2 magnitude quake shook northern Chile on Tuesday, killing six people and triggering a tsunami with 2-meter (7-foot) waves.” http://reut.rs/1mBpUUV

FIRST LOOK: NEW BIPARTISAN CFPB BILL — Reps. Denny Heck (D-Wash.) and Robert Pittenger (R-N.C.) today plan to introduce a bill to help small businesses deal with the CFPB. Per release going out today on the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection Small Business Advisory Board Act: “This common sense, bipartisan legislation will allow a formal advisory role in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for small financial services related businesses …

“The Small Business Advisory Board would assist the CFPB throughout the rulemaking process, ensuring feedback is considered from small business owners and non-depository institutions impacted by new regulations”

MARY JO WHITE MAY SIDE WITH GOP ON SOME RULES — Per TIME’s

Massimo Calabresi in a piece up this morning: “In coming months, the SEC will vote on a raft of important post-crash rules on everything from money market funds and executive pay, to the $700 trillion swaps market and crowdfunding for startups. The commission’s four other members are divided on parts of these rules …

“In search of a compromise, [SEC Chair Mary Jo] White has told members of the commission she may vote with its two Republicans on some crowdfunding and swaps rules … It would be the first time White had crossed the aisle to deliver a 3-2 vote on regulation for the Republican side.” http://ti.me/Pk6mcr

FED CHEAT SHEET — Do you occasionally nod along silently when people talk about quantitative easing, forward guidance and other Federal Reserve policies? Well Third Way has a new report up today to help you get up to speed. http://bit.ly/1gPXtlE

CHINA PLANS TO BUILD IT’S OWN WALL STREET – NYT’s Neil Gough: “There isn’t much to see in Qianhai today except for a tract of muddy, mostly undeveloped land that has been reclaimed from the sea in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen … A gleaming meeting hall built by the local government to host potential investors sits largely marooned, surrounded by dusty plots of new land that run for miles in every direction. … Six years from now, officials here envision, Qianhai will be a thriving, international finance district in Shenzhen that will stand shoulder to shoulder with Wall Street, the City of London or Hong Kong’s Central District.

“The local government anticipates a working population of 650,000 people generating annual gross domestic product of around $25 billion in Qianhai by 2020 — plans that call for total investment of nearly 400 billion renminbi, or about $65 billion. But Wall Street and its counterparts didn’t become global financial centers by way of government fiat. For China, the challenge is fundamental; gently easing the state’s grip on the financial system after decades of heavy-handed control. It’s a bold blueprint, but, so far, not much more than that.” http://nyti.ms/1os9lze

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – Zachary Warmbrodt on the tensions between SEC commissioners and FSOC [ http://politico.pro/1jCudiO] … MJ Lee on the House Financial Services hearing on allegations of workplace retaliation and discrimination at CFPB [ http://politico.pro/1pPQb3x] … Pro's subscriber-only coverage — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Congratulations to the Washington Wizards who made the playoffs for the first time since 2008! Now on to the NBA title. http://wapo.st/1loCTsR

DRIVING THE DAY — US Trade Rep Michael Froman testifies on President Obama’s trade agenda at 9:30 a.m. before House Ways and Means and 2:00 p.m. before Senate Finance … International trade data at 8:30 a.m. expected to show deficit falling to $38.5B from $39.1B … ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 53.5 from 51.6

WHAT CAN YOU TELL ABOUT A VOTER IN 2014? — Alex Lundry, chief data scientist for TargetPoint Consulting, talks with POLITICO Chief White House Correspondent Mike Allen about what voters are watching, what cable boxes reveal, what’s DVRed and more — check out the one-on-one: politico.com/openmike.

FOUR DEAD AT FORT HOOD — POLITICO’s Philip Ewing: “Four people lay dead, including a gunman, and 16 others were wounded Wednesday when a soldier opened fire at Fort Hood, Texas, the commanding general there said. Lt. Gen. Mark Milley told reporters that a soldier with the 13th Sustainment Command who was in mental health treatment walked into a building on the post and began shooting with a .45 caliber pistol. The man got into a car, drove to another building, and resumed his shooting before he was shot by military police, Milley said. The soldier then killed himself with his pistol. http://bit.ly/1iiSEPe

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RUSSIA SANCTIONS THREATEN … MILEY CYRUS — FT’s Courtney Weaver in Moscow and Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles: “Miley Cyrus has twerked her way into a geopolitical controversy amid questions over whether the promoter of her sellout concert in Finland risks falling foul of US sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea. The Helsinki venue due to host Ms Cyrus, Justin Timberlake and other US stars in the coming months is owned by a Finnish holding company controlled by three Russians singled out for US retaliation. …

“[A]ccording to the wording of the new US sanctions and lawyers specialising in this area, Live Nation should theoretically be barred from completing any financial transactions with Helsinki’s Hartwall Arena unless it first receives special dispensation from the US Treasury” http://on.ft.com/1hj1xGn

REGULATORY COSTS LEAD SMALL BANKS TO SELL — WSJ’s Michael Rapoport: “At Bank of Commerce … a Charlotte, N.C., lender with $129 million in assets, regulatory costs helped push Chief Executive Wesley Sturges to agree last month to sell to HomeTrust Bancshares … a North Carolina bank group with $1.6 billion in assets. … Bank of Commerce, which generated just $441,000 in net income last year, was forced to boost spending on internal personnel and outside audit work to cope with added regulatory hurdles stemming from the financial crisis, on top of the anti-money-laundering laws, credit-reporting rules and many other regulatory issues …

“In a period when low interest rates are squeezing small banks, the costs of adhering to new regulations are taking a toll. Executives from at least a half-dozen small banks that have agreed to be acquired in recent months said the increasing regulatory burden was a factor in their decisions. The executives said the new rules aren't scaled for banks of their size.” http://on.wsj.com/1edXATl

TOP STORY: SCOTUS TRIMS CAMPAIGN FINANCE RULES — NYT’s Adam Liptak: “The Supreme Court … continued its abolition of limits on election spending, striking down a decades-old cap on the total amount any individual can contribute to federal candidates in a two-year election cycle. … Wednesday’s decision seemed to alter campaign finance law in subtle but important ways, notably by limiting how the government can justify laws said to restrict the exercise of First Amendment rights in the form of campaign contributions.

….

“Wednesday’s decision did not affect familiar base limits on contributions from individuals to candidates, currently $2,600 per candidate in primary and general elections. But it said that overall limits of $48,600 by individuals every two years for contributions to all federal candidates violated the First Amendment, as did separate aggregate limits on contributions to political party committees, currently $74,600. http://nyti.ms/1loBnqG

CFPB EMPLOYEE ALLEGES CULTURE OF DISCRIMINATION — POLITICO’s MJ Lee: “An employee at the [CFPB] on Wednesday charged that there is a widespread culture of discrimination and retaliation at the agency, alleging that parts of the bureau are plagued by racial tensions and managers that bully subordinates. Angela Martin, a lawyer in CFPB’s enforcement division, told a House Financial Services Subcommittee that there are a ‘trail of victims’ at the agency who are afraid to speak out publicly.

… Martin made a series of inflammatory allegations about work life at the bureau. For instance, she said one division in CFPB’s consumer response division that is mostly staffed by African-American employees is internally referred to as ‘the plantation’ or ‘cesspool.’

“Wednesday’s hearing was the culmination of a week of escalating tensions between bureau officials and the committee’s Republican leadership, who opposed the creation of CFPB and have sought to weaken the agency, over what specific issues should be discussed in public. It was scheduled following revelations that a CFPB employee survey showed that white employees received higher ratings than minority employees on a rating scale the bureau uses to determine benefits, such as raises and bonuses.” http://bit.ly/1dOCMXP

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR –

RYAN BUDGET FACES GOP HURDLES — POLITICO’s Jake Sherman and Lauren French: “As Rep. Paul Ryan was laying out his Path to Prosperity budget Wednesday, Republican leadership was working behind the scenes to make sure there was a path for passage. With roughly one week until a planned floor vote, an unexpected hiccup has surfaced: A small pocket of Republicans are threatening to vote against the Budget Committee chairman’s proposal because they are angry about a controversial parliamentary maneuver GOP leadership deployed last week on the so-called doc fix.

… The resolution passed the House Budget Committee on Wednesday night with the support of the panel’s 22 Republicans.

“Passing Ryan’s House Republican budget has always been a heavy lift for leadership, with little margin for error. Last year, Ryan’s budget passed by a seven-vote margin with 10 Republicans voting no. There’s no practical reason for the House to pass another budget right now. … And the simmering dispute is significant as it carries political consequences. Even the smallest group of members voting ‘no’ can potentially put a vote in jeopardy and give a black eye to Ryan — a potential 2016 presidential contender — and Republican leadership” http://bit.ly/1dT2QB4

MASTERS LEAVING JPM — WSJ’s Christian Berthelsen, Dan Fitzpatrick and Joann S. Lublin: “Blythe Masters, J.P. Morgan Chase's commodities chief and one of the highest-ranking women on Wall Street, announced her resignation Wednesday, the latest in a series of executive departures from the largest U.S. bank. Ms. Masters, 45 years old, spent 27 years at the New York lender, but her future there became less certain after J.P. Morgan last month announced the $3.5 billion sale of its physical-commodities business to Mercuria Energy Group … A person close to Ms. Masters said she hopes the announcement of her departure will give her more options as she plans her next move. The person said it was unlikely that Ms. Masters would join Mercuria.

“Ms. Masters's exit represents another key departure in the executive ranks at J.P. Morgan. Last week, Michael Cavanagh, co-head of J.P. Morgan's Wall Street operations, said he would leave for a job with private-equity firm Carlyle Group … removing one of the front-runners to succeed Chief Executive James Dimon. Mr. Cavanagh was the 10th executive since early 2012 to leave Mr. Dimon's operating committee, which comprises the bank's key decision makers. http://on.wsj.com/1mB2zCJ

GOLDMAN EXEC PROMOTES CHINA TREATY — Goldman Sachs vice chair Mark Schwartz in a WSJ op-ed: “These are challenging times for world leaders seeking to stimulate the global economy. The G-20 wants to see $2 trillion of global GDP and tens of millions of jobs added by 2018 .. Multilateral talks are already underway to drive growth by further liberalizing trade, which are important initiatives but which have yet to bear fruit. So businesses will be particularly encouraged to see dialogue restarting that aims to give cross-border investment a boost, especially since the talks involve the world's two largest economies.

“The talks concern the U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty, or BIT. Such an agreement would clarify the rules for investment between the two countries while removing many barriers that remain to such investments — rather like a free-trade agreement for capital flows instead of goods and services. A high-standard BIT will help remove ambiguities that detract from greater investment and broader economic activity, and give the U.S. and China increased stakes in each other's success.” http://on.wsj.com/1jD1KcJ

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Authors:

About The Author

Ben White is POLITICO Pro's chief economic correspondent and author of the “Morning Money” column covering the nexus of finance and public policy.

Prior to joining POLITICO in the fall of 2009, Mr. White served as a Wall Street reporter for the New York Times, where he shared a Society of Business Editors and Writers award for breaking news coverage of the financial crisis.

From 2005 to 2007, White was Wall Street correspondent and U.S. Banking Editor at the Financial Times.

White worked at the Washington Post for nine years before joining the FT. He served as national political researcher and research assistant to columnist David S. Broder and later as Wall Street correspondent.

White, a 1994 graduate of Kenyon College, has two sons and lives in New York City.