Back and calf injuries had big effect on Lance Berkman's playing time, and, combined with a bit of bad luck, were a drag on BA. Those skills are stable. Homer and flyball rates have been at a similar level for three years running - positive sign. He'll continue slow fade, but unpredictable BA output and health problems have always made him a better buy coming off a down year. Arthroscopic knee surgery will drop price more, but doesn't change what we already know and makes it easier for Berkman to earn a profit.

Kazuo Matsui offers 20-plus stolen bases if he can stay healthy; the last part has been an issue. His shaky batting eye keeps his batting average in flux. He's a low-end second base commodity in mixed and mono leagues because of his shaky contributions outside of steals.

Pedro Feliz: Hot glove, cold bat. Average has trouble reaching .270 thanks to thankless BB/K. Line-drive spike doesn't offer much hope on its own. Flyballs are dropping. Hope in his new ballpark, which accelerates right-handed power. Maybe that helps him reach usefulness, but you should keep your pursuit to NL-only drafts, where he's a bottom-level hot corner starter.

Took walks more frequently, but that frequency slowly regressed. Line-drive production helped to boost Michael Bourn's high hit rate. A walk rate approaching 10 percent and his diet of ropes make or break him. He has more sustenance than Willy Taveras, but Bourn's single-category contribution has driven up his draft stock. No such type is mixed top-100 material.

Hunter Pence's ontact rate has remained not special, but solid uptick in BB/K says last year's BA isn't unreasonable. Batted-ball charts are where disturbance lies. Very low rate on line drives, low rate on flyballs from big-framed player who's not growing as a slugger since excitement-inducing debut. Upside remains, but your draft choice is based more on conjecture than evidence.

Batting eye is leisurely headed downward, but contact rate is moving upward at about same rate. Days of .300 aren't over, but they're numbered. Carlos Lee's slugging percentage pattern looks similar to Magglio Ordonez's. Lack of speed contribution anymore makes him dependent on homers, RBIs for top-100 value. Keeper leaguers, if you get in at a good price this year, sell high.

Flyballs have doomed Brett Myers. His new park doesn't help much. His fastball has become extremely hittable. Reasons for optimism as a post-draft pickup: His awfulness last year was partially caused by a hip problem that was fixed by surgery. He'll be a dice roll in deep leagues.

It keeps getting better: Wandy Rodriguez stayed healthy, reduced BB/9 in second half and watched hit rate fall again - part of a trend? How much better can it get? If it's simply a matter of solving road woes, will we see a jump beyond an Ervin Santana (circa 2008) season? Hit and strand rates were best-case scenario. Upside beyond 2009 level is limited. He's good, but some folks are paying for next fantasy ace. Don't stay in with them.

Back problems don't disappear. However, Roy Oswalt has focused on offseason core strength, an approach that has benefited others with similar issues. Spike in flyball percentage seems a fluke, but batted-ball trends point to hittable pitcher. That and command erosion can probably be linked to ailments somewhat, and K/9 remains steady. Acknowledge that NL fantasy No. 1 is no longer likely, but he's better than 2009. Profit chance.

Astros brought him in to be steady, low-downside alternative to Matt Lindstrom. Indicators say Brandon Lyon is not all that safe, just pretty lucky. Sub-2.00 K/BB will bite harder than it did in 2009; hit rate against was impossibly good. A rude awakening seems in store. Good news: Few are particularly eager to buy. Not a very hopeful when-all-else-fails target, though.

Club would prefer Matt Lindstrom to keep closer's job. Velocity is tantalizing. Elbow problems contributed to overall struggles, particularly with control, in 2009. Elbow reports are clean. But BB/9 hasn't been conducive to success for two seasons. Hope: 18 1/3 IP, four walks allowed after return. Command was better in minors. It's based on faith for that to continue, translate, but rock-bottom mixed price (safer), midlevel NL price could yield 20-plus saves.