Long-term projections for textile fibre consumption

Chapter 1 - The world cotton market - Overview

The set of assumptions used to project world textile fibre and cotton consumption in 2010 and 2020 includes:

Annual average gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 1970 as a proxy for long-term GDP growth;

Population projections from the United Nations;

A long-term cotton price trend equal to average relative cotton prices between 2003 and 2005; and

Increases in the ICAC Textile Fibre Price Index in tandem with inflation.

World textile fibre consumption is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 4% to reach 70 million tons in 2010 and by 2.8% per year to reach 87 million tons in 2020. Lower rates of growth in world textile fibre consumption aremainly associated with lower world GDP growth (down from 5.3% during the 1960s to 3.3% during the 1990s) and lower growth of the world population (from 2.1% during the 1960s to 1.7% during the 1990s). Between 2000 and 2005, the average rate of growth of textile fibre consumption was 3.8%. World cotton consumption is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 2% to reach 26.7 million tons in 2010 and 32 million tons in 2020. Cotton’s share of the world textile fibre market is projected to decline to 37% in 2020.

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