11/02/2012

So how well have the ADP employment numbers predicted those for the BLS?

The numbers in the chart are in thousands. Over this period, the ADP numbers were greater than the BLS's for 35 months and less then them for 41. On average, the ADP numbers have been less than the BLS's by just 747 people. Starting this month, ADP has hired a different person to provide their monthly predictions on total employment as reported by the BLS. We will see how well Zandi does.

Here are the monthly ADP employment numbers broken down by firm size. Only firms with between 1 to 19 employees seem to have completely rebounded. The next best showing seems to be firms with 20 to 49 employees. Those with 50 to 499 seem to have been hammered the most.