It's never easy to do business forecasting, but this year is a total mystery. Every forecast discussion seems to start with a conversation to agree how optimistic or pessimistic to be. It reminded me of the old "glass half full/glass half empty" test. Most of what I'm hearing is pretty pessimistic. And it's only a few weeks into January.

In this kind of climate, what do we have to lose? It's a good year to take a gamble and try something new. If it's generally agreed that it's going to be a rough year, the "same-old, same-old" approach isn't going to set the world on fire.

On the theme of "glass half full," here's a bonus cartoon from the archives – nearly five years ago. Starring Jon, the market research guy I worked with who suggested the cartoon idea.