There is a palpable mood of relief in East Timor this week after the
election in which the country voted overwhelmingly in favor of the leftist
nationalist party Fretilin.

The tension in the air has dissipated after the vote went ahead in an
orderly manner nationwide. It is as though the population has passed a
strenuous test, as indeed it has.

The day after the August 30 poll, in which representatives were elected
to an 88-seat constituent assembly to draft East Timor's first
constitution, became an unofficial public holiday. In the capital people
strolled under the beachfront banyan trees as fishermen cast their nets
from outrigger canoes bobbing gently in Dili Bay.

The mood of relief built as counting progressed. On Tuesday night there
was a spontaneous demonstration for the second anniversary of the militia
violence that followed the 1999 independence referendum. Dili's streets
were suddenly illuminated with hundreds of candles as people gathered in
small groups to pray for the dead and give thanks for their liberty. The
scene underlined the stark difference between this ballot and that earlier
one.

The first had been held under the menacing presence of Indonesian army
and militia guns. This time, 8000 armed United Nations peacekeepers stood
by, and the result was an unconditional success for the UN transitional
administration.

The results announced by the UN on Wednesday gave Fretilin, the
Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor, a majority of 57.3per
cent of the vote, short of the 60per cent Fretilin needed to draft a new
constitution on its own. The youthful Democratic Party finished second,
with 8.7 per cent, followed by the Social Democrats led by former East
Timor governor Mario Viegas Carrascalao, with 8.1 per cent.

A surprise result was that of the Timorese Social Democratic
Association, which gained 7.8 per cent, drawing mainly on indigenous
support among Mambai-speaking people in central mountain areas for Xavier
do Amaral, the aged founding president of Fretilin.

The tension in the lead-up to the vote resulted from uncertainty about
Fretilin's intentions. For many, its campaign had an aggressively
triumphant note.

Secretary-general Mari Alkatiri asserted that the party had a
"guaranteed" victory of up to 88 per cent and at one point he
stated that after the elections Fretilin would "sweep the earth"
to correct the ills besetting East Timor. The phrase evoked disquieting
memories of the scorched earth policies by militias in 1999. It aroused
fears that Fretilin might behave in an authoritarian manner if it won by a
landslide, although Mr Alkatiri denied it had any sinister meaning.

He also said he had no interest in sharing power with others, although
the UN had said it wanted to bring all major parties into a national unity
government. Mr Alkatiri said Fretilin wanted instead an
"inclusive" government, by which it would hand-pick people from
other parties to join its cabinet. Liberals within the party were clearly
uncomfortable with both stands.

UN administrator Sergio Vieira de Mello now has the sensitive task of
forming a cabinet that will give voice to divergent political views. Eight
other small parties, including the pro-Indonesian Timorese Nationalist
Party, also won seats in the assembly.

The fact that Fretilin fell far short of its predicted landslide has
strengthened Mr de Mello's hand. But it has not altogether changed
Fretilin's position that its undeniable mass support gives it a right to
govern on its own terms and to choose the cabinet.

Mr Alkatiri has threatened to boycott parliamentary activity if he does
not get his way, but it is a threat that will probably meet some
opposition within his own party, and which Mr de Mello is no doubt taking
into account in the approach he takes.

Besides, Mr Alkatiri is an eminently pragmatic and sensible man in
practice, despite his flair for demagoguery.

Party critics are likely to chastise him over Fretilin's performance in
the coffee-growing district of Ermera, which represented more than 40,000
votes.

A recent reorganisation of its central committee incorporated people
who are considered by Fretilin liberals to have been prominent Indonesian
collaborators. These include Francisco Kalbuadi, adopted son of the late
Dading Kalbuadi, the Indonesian general who led the 1975 attack on Balibo
in which five journalists were killed. (His supporters within Fretilin say
Mr Kalbuadi may have consorted with Indonesian intelligence agents, but
that he secretly gave considerable financial support to the resistance.)

More controversial was the appointment of the formerly pro-Indonesian
leader Tomas Goncalves as Fretilin's campaign manager in Ermera, where he
had been bupati (district head) during the Indonesian occupation.

Since 1999 Mr Goncalves has been denouncing Indonesian actions in East
Timor, having defected after the military insisted he lead one of the
militia groups. He was deeply unpopular during his term as bupati and in
Ermera Fretilin voters defected in droves to the Democratic Party or the
Social Democrats.

In the event, Fretilin won the count in Ermera, but with 31.9 per cent,
while the combined votes of the Democratic Party and the Social Democrats,
which consider themselves fraternal parties, were over 40per cent. There
were similar problems in the Oecussi enclave, where Fretilin polled only
38.6 per cent, again dragging its percentage down.

These facts will strengthen the hand of party moderates and assist Mr
de Mello in his difficult negotiations. By Thursday when results were
announced, a series of top-level meetings was under way in Dili involving
World Bank officials and senior members of the UN administration. Meetings
with party leaders over the shape of the new government also began.

"The result makes it easier for UNTAET to form a representative
cabinet," one Western diplomat said. "Fretilin can't now expect
to have things all its own way. Sergio Vieira de Mello is enough of a
consummate diplomat to make things work."

Among the most disappointed politicians were leaders of the newly
formed Democratic Party led by former political prisoner Fernando de
Araujo and Constancio Pinto, a survivor of the Santa Cruz massacre. The
party is identified with nationalist leader Jose "Xanana" Gusmao,
who will stand for president after the constitution is drafted. Party
supporters had expected to stem the Fretilin tide with a much higher
percentage than their 8.7 per cent, but they are likely to combine forces
in the new parliament with the Social Democrats, in a bloc representing
more than 16 per cent.

"Fretilin should be proud of the existence of other political
parties," Mr Pinto said. "They say they brought democracy to
Timor, so they should accept them and not feel so threatened."

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