Sunday, October 6, 2013

My preview
of Sunday’s Il Lombardia was the last of its kind this year. My season is over
and there won’t be any more previews here in 2013. I want to thank you all for
reading during the season - I’m very happy for your kind words! Now I’ll take
some days off and then I’ll start planning 2014.

For weekly
cycling updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrconde.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

It’s time
for the final big one day race of the 2013 season. The Italian Il Lombardia,
also known as “the race of the falling leaves”, takes place on the routes from
Bergamo to Lecco. There are no less than five hard climbs to overcome on the
242 km and the last one, Villa Vergano, has its top just 10 km from the
finishing line.

One of the
most spectacular parts of the routes comes after 160 km. On the way towards the
top of Colma di Sormano, the riders reach the feared Muro di Sormano. The 1.9
km have an average gradient of 15.8 % and parts of up to 27 %. There are still 82
km to go from the top of the climb and most likely, the peloton will regroup on
the following 30 km towards the next climb. Madonna del Ghisallo is 8.5 km long
and has an average gradient of 6.2 %. It has a steep part of 14 % in the
beginning and after a flat part, the final 1.5 km kick up with 9.5 %. Last
year, the race took place in rainy conditions and many have feared the same
would happen this time. However, as of Saturday morning, the weather forecast
shows it should have stopped raining in Lecco by the time the riders arrive.

Last year,
on the descent from Madonna del Ghisallo we saw Vincenzo Nibali, among others,
crash on the wet roads and hopefully everybody will stay upright this time. The
crashes during World Championship last week took out many good riders and it
would be a shame to see the same thing happening in Il Lombardia.

With 12.6
km to go, it’s time for the final struggle of the day. Villa Vergano is only
3.2 km long but has an average gradient of 7.4 %. There are steep parts of 15 %
near the top and this is exactly where Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez attacked last
year. Nobody could keep up with Purito and being strong on the wet descent, the
other riders didn’t see him until after the finishing line.

Should a small
group of riders arrive together, it’s important to know the finish very well.
With 750 meters to go, the riders turn right in a roundabout and continues
straight out for about 500 meters. Then it’s time for a very tricky S-curve. It’s
starts with a 90° left turn and ends
with a right curve. There are only 150 meters to go from here and this means
first rider out of the last bend most likely wins the rain. If you attack into
the sharp left-hand corner and take a take a few risks, chances are you will
open up a big enough gap to stay in front all the way to the line.

Like last
year, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is once again my personal favorite. He has had a
week to digest the big defeat in Florence and he’s now eager to take revenge
and finish this season with a good taste in his mouth. Purito knows that few - if
any - can match his kick on the steep part of Villa Vergano and I won’t be
surprised to see him solo away to win like he did in 2012. In Florence, he
showed to be the strongest climber in the race and Il Lombardia is really a
climber’s race. Last year, Purito won the World Tour ranking after winning this
race and he’s close enough to Chris Froome to repeat that performance this time. However, it won’t be easy. Froome leads with 80 points and that means
Purito has to win or get second while Froome can’t get any points at all. Purito's loyal teammate Dani Moreno showed great shape in Milano-Torino with a strong attack in the final and we can expect Moreno to go hard for Purito in the beginning of Villa Vergano. Katusha has a very strong team for this race and should Purito get caught, Dani Moreno will be able to play his cards in the sprint.

Update:Chris Froome won't start Il Lombardia due to back pains. This means we may end up seeing Purito working harder to secure a Top2 place than to win the race if gets away with only one other rider in the final. Topping the ranking for the third time in a row is a huge goal for Purito and even though he naturally wants to win Il Lombardia, a second place won't be too bad this time.

The other
favorites for the win this Sunday are the same as those for the World
Championship. Alejandro Valverde will be eager to make up for his tactical
mistake (letting Rui Costa slip away) and it will be interesting to see how
Valverde and Rui Costa, now teammates again, will ride this race. Valverde
knows he’s most likely the fastest rider on the line should it end in a sprint.
Therefore, I would expect Rui Costa to attack on the final climb. However, Rui
Costa had problems keeping up with the best riders on the steep parts last
Sunday and I doubt he can follow Purito on the final part of Villa Vergano. The
best solution is probably to attack early on the last climb and make a
selection before the steep part. Rui Costa may even wants to pay back Valverde
by working in front of the peloton towards the line. Like some said, Purito
should have done in Florence.

Vincenzo
Nibali finished just outside of the podium last Sunday. I’m sure few would
disagree to the fact that Nibali was the strongest rider in the race and I
expect him to do very well in Il Lombardia too. Like Purito, Nibali is eager to
take revenge. He’s in great shape right now but like other riders without a
strong kick, the Astana captain has to time his final attack perfectly if he wants to win
this race. Many people say that it will be an advantage for Nibali if it rains
again this year. However don’t forget that Vincenzo Nibali has crashed numerous
times on wet descents. Last year, in Il Lombardia, he went down on the descent
from Madonna del Ghisallo and in the Giro d’Italia this year, Nibali crashed
again on a wet descent. Same thing happened last Sunday, which obviously made
Nibali scared of taking risks in the final when Rui Costa attacked. Nibali is
said to be one of the best riders on the descents, especially if it rains, but
maybe it’s time to reconsider that statement. That being said, I won’t be
surprised to see Vincenzo Nibali attack on the descent from Villa Vergano. He
knows he has to get away alone in order to win and I’m sure he will try.

Together
with Purito and Rui Costa, Dan Martin was one of my personal picks for the win
last Sunday. The Irish climber had all the qualities needed to win but like
many others, a crash ruined his chances. Afterwards, Dan Martin said he was
feeling very good on the bike during the race and luckily, the crash didn’t
cause him any injuries. This means the Garmin captain is now ready to fight
again and I have big hopes for him in this race. Dan Martin is good on the
climbs, he’s explosive and he’s fast on the line. In Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he
outsmarted Purito in the final and we may just get another fight between the
same two riders this time.

Il
Lombardia is the last race I’ll preview this season and of course I have a
couple a couple of jokers for you. The first one is Domenico Pozzovivo. The
pint-sized Italian finished 6th overall in the Vuelta last month and
after a short break, he showed still to be in great shape in Milano-Torino. On
the final climb, Pozzovivo was - im my eyes - the strongest rider in the race,
having no problems following the attacks the final 3 km. However, Pozzovivo is
not very strong in a sprint and this also why his chances aren’t great this
Sunday. I think Pozzovivo is one of the few riders able to stay close to Purito
on the steep part of Villa Vergano but I can’t see him outsprint any of the
other favorites. A podium place is probably the best Pozzovivo can do with a
finish like this but that would also be a good result. Together with Carlos
Betancur, Ag2r has a very strong duo for the final climb.

Some point
to Philippe Gilbert and Peter Sagan as the favorites but I doubt they will be
able to stay with the favorites on the final climb. It’s true that Gilbert has
won this race before but let’s be honest, Gilbert is not as strong right now as
we have seen him in the past. Also, unlike the last many years, the climbers
are now in tip-top conditions thanks to a tough World Championship course.
Usually, their season would already be over but now they are all peaking. I’m
sure this will make a huge impact on the race. Personally, I will be surprised
if a climber doesn’t win Il Lombardia.

Other good
jokers for the win are Diego Ulissi, Thibaut Pinot and Alberto Contador. Ulissi
is in great shape right now but as I’ve mentioned many times; he’s not good on
the descents. Especially not if it rains. However, Ulissi is very fast on the
line and he’s probably one of the very few riders in the peloton able to
outsprint Alejandro Valverde. Thibaut Pinot hasn’t won a single race this
season and naturally, he’s eager to change that fact. He came out of the Vuelta
in good shape but like many others in this race, he probably needs to solo away
in order to win. The same goes for Alberto Contador. I was a bit disappointed
by Contador last Sunday but in Milano-Torino he showed to have found his
climbing legs again. He wasn’t on top of his game but if he keeps on
progressing like that, he should be among the first riders on Sunday. Team
Saxo-Tinkoff also has in-shape Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka (2nd in
Milano-Torino) on the start line and they should be able to snatch up a good
result. Also, look out for riders like Simon Clarke and Franco Pellizotti. Clarke did very well last Sunday while Pellizotti showed in Milano-Torino to be in great shape.

For a
super-super joker, look to Louis Meintjes. The young South African rider
finished second in the U23 road race last week and showed on the Fiesole climb
how strong he is right now. Alone he bridged the gap to Matej Mohoric and even
though he couldn’t stay with the strong Slovenian rider on the descents, he managed
to keep the peloton behind him all the way to the line. In Milano-Torino,
Meintjes joined a couple of attacks on the final climb and he is now very eager
to find out what he can do against the elite this Sunday. We can’t expect this
young man to win Il Lombardia, but if Louis Meintjes can make Top15 it would be
a huge result for him and his wildcard team MTN-Qhubeka.

Friday, September 27, 2013

It’s
finally time. This Sunday, the elite men’s road race is on and we are in for
quite a show. It’ the most open World Championship in a while and with a rainy
weather forecast; anything can happen!

In total,
the race is 272.2 km long. The day starts in Lucca and from here; the riders
have 100 km to overcome before they reach Florence. There are two climbs on
this first part; Montecarlo (3.75 km / 3.5 %) and San Baronto (3.9 / 7.1 %).
These two climbs won’t make for a selection but especially San Baronto will
serve as an appetizer of what waits the riders later on.

When
reaching Florence the riders starts on 10 laps of 16.57 km. The first two
kilometers are flat but then the road kicks up. The Fiesole climb is 4.37 km
long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The gradients barely drop below 7 %
the last 1500 meters and this is where we find the steep parts of over 10 %.
There are 10 km to the line from the top of Fiesole. The descent starts out
very technical but then gets easier with nice and soft turns. However, there is
a very steep part and then a difficult 90° left turn with about 8.7 km to go.
If the rains, riders chasing to get back have to pay close attention to this
corner in order not to see their chances disappear in a crash.

The
following 2 km are fast very fast and after a sharp right hand turn, it’s time
to climb again. The 600 meters on Via Salviati have an average gradient of 10 %
and include a part of 200 meters with over 16 % towards the top. There are only
5 km to go from the top of Via Salviati and as the final part is very fast, it
won’t be easy to catch a small group of riders if they get a gap over the top.
With a less than 3 km to the line, the riders turn left and the following
150-200 meters are uphill with parts of 10 %. This may be the last place to
attack if you want to solo away. The road kicks up a little again as the rider
cross the railroad and after a 180° corner, the final 1500 meters are flat and
straight out towards the line.

Everybody
seems to have a different opinion on the best way to prepare for this World
Championship and which riders it favors. It’s hard to keep track but here is
some of the statements:

You
need to ride Vuelta España.

This
is a route for the climbers.

You
need to be fast.

You
need to be explosive on the climbs.

Don’t
count on the Vuelta riders, the last week was too hard.

You
need to be able to win on this kind of distance.

Confused? I
understand. It may not look like there is a rider who can tick off every single
criteria. However, there is one. More about him a little later.

First,
let’s look at the teams with the most responsibility this Sunday. Spain has the
strongest team (9 riders) with Contador, Purito and Valverde but home favorites
Italy (9) isn’t far behind with the likes of Scarponi, Ulissi and Nibali. The
Netherlands (Gesink, Mollema, Slagter), Switzerland (Cancellara, Albasini) and
Colombia (Quintana, Uran, Henao, Betancur) also have nine riders at the start.
So does France but I would be surprised to see them start working in the
peloton. The French riders have to be aggressive in the attacks and with Pinot,
Barguil and Voeckler they have enough firepower to put in a couple of strong
attacks on the final laps.

Peter Sagan
(Slovakia) has five teammates to help him, among these are the Velits brothers,
Peter and Martin, plus Sagan’s own brother Juraj. Sagan would like this race to
be as easy as possible and hope for a big group together on the final lap.
Therefore I doubt Slovakia will put much effort into chasing the breaks early
on. Last year’s winner, Philippe Gilbert and Belgium have seven riders at the
start this time and compared to last year, they will be more aggressive.
Gilbert needs a hard race with a big selection and if so, he will probably have
to attack on Via Salviati on the last lap and get away with a couple of riders.
This is his best chance of winning in Florence.

Profile of the circuit in Florence. 10 laps of 16.57 km.

According
to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara is the number one favorite. The Swiss Time
Machine pays 3 to 1. It’s nothing new that Cancellara has a red circle around
the World Championship but usually it’s focused around the time trial. This
year, Fabian Cancellara has put everything into becoming World Champion in the
road race instead. He has lost some kilos and in the Vuelta España, he showed
to be in great shape on the climbs. As a warm-up
for the road race, Cancellara has done both the team time trial (last Sunday)
and the individual time trial (last Wednesday). Radioshack finished 4th
in the TTT while Cancellara took the bronze medal in the ITT, only two seconds
form second place. There is no doubt that Fabian Cancellara is in great shape
right now but is he strong enough to keep stay with the punchy climbers on Via
Salviati? Remember, in total this race has more than 60 km of climbing. It’s
not “just” a usually tough one day race, it’s a regular mountain stage. If
Cancellara has to fight his way back after both Fiesole and Via Salviati, how
much energy will he has left for the expected late attack in the final On the
other hand, the U23 winner Matej Mohoric said he didn’t think the course was that hard and makes Cancellara one of
the two big favorites.

The other
top favorite is Peter Sagan. Sagan usually don’t have any problems on these
kind of climbs and to make sure he doesn’t get dropped, he went to train hard
in the mountains earlier this season. It quickly paid off and in Tour de
Suisse, he actually won the mountain stage with the steepest climb in the race.
Peter Sagan does well in the short time trials, he can sprint and he can solo
away to win as well. It’s difficult to find any flaws but if there is one, it
may be the distance. Sagan is yet to win a race over 250 km and even though he
has come close a couple of times, it’s still one thing missing on his
impressive palmares.

The Spanish
duo Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez makes it hard to imagine
a final podium without a Spanish rider. Valverde is a true specialist in these
kind of one-day races and Purito too knows how prepare for a single day and
then deliver. Both have been on the podium in the past but neither has ever
won. This year both Valverde and Purito aimed at the Tour de France this
summer. Afterwards they started out the Vuelta with the intention of getting
ready for this Sunday. They finished 3rd and 4th overall
in the Vuelta and seem very strong at the moment. Especially, Purito finished
the Vuelta strong and I think he’s Spain’s best card to play. Few - if any -
can match Purito’s kick on the steep gradients and I would imagine he would try
to split the group on Via Salviati the last time. We saw in the U23 race that
Via Salviati creates a lot more damage than Fiesole and the steep gradients
really suits Purito who’s also good on the descent. Furthermore, Purito showed
in Giro di Lombardia last year, that he can win in the rain as well. Of course,
if it ends in a sprint of 10+ riders, Alejandro Valverde is the best option for
Spain and if Peter Sagan isn’t in the group, Valverde shouldn’t have problems
outsprinting the rest.

The last
one of the top favorites is Vincenzo Nibali. He’s riding on home soil in Italy
and naturally the expectations are high. Italy hasn’t be able to deliver since
2008 when the finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in
Varese. Now the World Championship is back in Italy and after Nibali won the
Giro d’Italia and finished second overall in the Vuelta, everybody expect
another top performance from the shark. To
help Nibali take the rainbow jersey, Italy sends strong riders like Michele
Scarponi, Rinaldo Nocentini, Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Diego
Ulissi. Italy’s big problem in the past has been too many captains, this time
it’s different. Pozzato and Scarponi are both in great shape but they have to
leave their big egos at home. Ulissi is double junior world champion and I have
no doubts he’ll win the elite’s race one day as well. Diego Ulissi is strong on
the climbs and fast on the line. However, he’s not very good on the descents
especially not if the roads are wet. Vincenzo Nibali needs to attack on Fiesole
and make an early selection, then he probably has to dig deep again on Via
Salviati and then attack on the descent as he has done in the past. Nibali
knows his only chance is to solo away and I’m sure he won’t think twice if he
sees an opening in the final.

As I wrote
earlier, there actually is one rider
fitting all the listed statement. This rider is Dan Martin. He started the
Vuelta, he didn’t ride the last week of the race, he’s a climber, he’s explosive,
he’s fast on the line and he has proven to be able to win on the long distance
(LBL this year). After crashing out of the Vuelta, Dan Martin took part in Tour
of Britain as his last preparation for the World Championship. He raced very
aggressively and showed on the climbs that he is still going very strong. So
far, 2013 has already been a great season for Dan Martin after winning
Liege-Bastogne-Liege and stage 9 of the Tour de France. He has been targeting
the Rainbow Jersey for a while and he has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking
from afar if necessary. I think the most likely scenario for this race, is a
small group of about five riders arriving at the finishing together. If Dan
Martin is in this group, he will be very difficult to beat.

Earlier
this year, Colombia seemed to have one of the most powerful teams for this
race. However, both Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur didn’t really deliver in
the Vuelta and it’s doubtful they will be able to perform - as previously
expected - this Sunday. Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran are still two very
strong outsiders but it won’t be easy for the Colombians to continue their
dominance this season. Nairo Quintana’s father is hoping to visit the Pope when
the race is over and naturally, it would be amazing for the humble climber to
join his parents with the Pope carrying the Rainbow Jersey. I don’t think it
will be happen though.

Map of the circuit in Florence.

Before this
preview gets too long to read, let’s have a look at some of the jokers for the
win. My personal joker is Rui Costa. Like Dan Martin, Rui Costa has already had
a great season with the overall win in Tour de Suisse and two impressive stage
wins in Tour de France. The World Championship has been a big goal for Rui
Costa all season and the course really suits him. Portugal only has three
riders in the race but both Andre Cardoso and Tiago Machado are dedicated to
help Rui Costa win the Rainbow Jersey.

Another
strong outsider is Chris Froome. Not since Greg Lemond in 1989 has a Tour de
France winner went on to become World Champion. This year Froome has a unique
chance of doing so but he knows he requires a hard race with a big selection. In
the beginning of August, Chris Froome went to check out the course and train on
the roads. He did the Via Salviati climb 10 times and he knows what to expect.
After finishing the Tour, Froome immediately started talking about the World
Championship and after training hard in North America the last weeks, he now
seems ready. Like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome most likely has to solo away in
order to win this race but don’t forget he actually outsprinted both Contador
and Purito in Tour of Oman earlier this year.

For other
jokers look to in-shape Robert Gesink and Thomas Voeckler, one-day specialist
Alexandr Kolobnev and strong all-rounder Edvald Boasson Hagen. For the
super-super jokers I’ll like to mention season revelation Tanel Kangert, World
Champion specialist Matti Breschel and youngster Tom-Jelte Slagter who has a
good kick on the hills and is fast on the line.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Tony Martin
got the best possible start to this year’s World Championship when he and Omega
Pharma Quickstep won the opening team time trial last Sunday. Now it’s time for
the individual time trial and just like the last two years, the strong German
is the top favorite.

Except for
a slightly different finish, the course is the same as for the team time trial.
It’s a power course for the big engines and basically it’s all about speed. The
small hill in the beginning won’t matter much as the following 50 km are flat.
Only the final few kilometers inside of Florence are technical but the riders
doing the team time trial already know how to take the corners without losing
time.

Half a year
ago, I had no doubts Tony Martin would win this race and take his third
consecutive World Champion title. However, I must admit Bradley Wiggins has
been extremely strong recently. Both Martin and Wiggins are best on a course
like this one and I think it will be a close fight. Still, I’ll stick with Tony
Martin as my number one favorite. He’s been training on the course, he did the
team time trial and he knows how to take the tricky corners in Florence.
According to the German, he’s in better shape than last year and he feels more
prepared. He got a massive motivation boost when OPQS won the team time trial
and he’s now very confident.

While Tony
Martin has had the same approach towards the time trials within the last handful
of years, Bradley Wiggins' focus has changed completely. He went from being a
time trial specialist to winning the Tour de France. In this process, Wiggins
lost a lot of weight and he had to comprise his time trial training. After his
failed attempt to win the Giro d’Italia this year, Wiggins now seems to have
given up on winning another Grand Tour. He’s now 7-8 kg heavier than when he won
the Tour and since June, he’s only been focusing on his time trial. In his
comeback race after the Giro, Bradley Wiggins won the 37 km time trial in Tour
of Poland when he distanced Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney with a minute.
Last week he won the short time trial in
Tour of Britain without any problems and according to Wiggins, he too feels a
lot better than last year. In 2012, Wiggins won the Olympic time trial just 10
days after winning the Tour de France. This time the World Champion time trial
comes just three days after Tour of Britain. It will be very interesting to see
if it’s enough time for Wiggins to switch focus and beat Tony Martin.
Personally, I doubt it.

According
to the bookmakers, Fabian Cancellara will take the bronze medal this Wednesday.
The way I see it, Cancellara is a strong candidate but riders like Taylor
Phinney and Adrian Malori have a solid chance of making podium as well. As
stated in my preview for the team time trial, Fabian Cancellara’s main focus in
on the road race on Sunday. No other top favorites are doing all three races
and if Cancellara wants to win on Sunday, it may not be the best idea to test
his limits on a course like this and take risks in the tricky corners. Cancellara
has worked hard to get better on the climbs, we saw that in Vuelta España, and
it means he has lost some speed on the long flat parts. He’s still among the
very best in the world but against Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, I honestly
can’t see him win.

Last year
Taylor Phinney did the time trial of his life when he finished second to Tony
Martin. Phinney was only six seconds from beating Tony Martin and becoming
World Champion and now he’s out for revenge. He lives near the course and knows
it like the back of his hand. Every time Phinney is out training on his time
trial bike, he’s riding on part of the course and I doubt any of the riders
starting tomorrow knows it better than he does. BMC had big ambitions for the
team time trial but failed to live up their own expectations. They finished fourth
and Taylor Phinney didn’t hide his disappointment. Wednesday the young American
has another chance to show his potential and personally, I have Phinney down
for a spot on the final podium.

The
Italians haven’t had much to cheer for in the time trials for a while. Marco
Pinotti was on his way to medal last year but then crashed in the final. Right
now Adriano Malori is the Italians best hope and on a good day, he could
surprise and make podium. Malori is getting better and better every year and
this season, he has been very close to Tony Martin a couple of times. In
Tirreno-Adriatico, Malori finished second in the final time trial, just six
seconds after Martin. In time trial in Tour de Romandie, Malori finished second
again this time 16 seconds after Tony Martin. It’s worth noticing that in this
time trial Malori put in 18 seconds on the overall winner Chris Froome. The
time trial in Florence is obviously a big goal for Adriano Malori and he’s been
working hard in order to deliver a top performance this Wednesday. He knows the
competition is fierce but if some of the other candidates strike out, Malori
will be ready to take advantage of the situation.The five mentioned riders are also the five riders starting last. For the complete starting order click here.
Among the super jokers for a medal we'll find riders like the Vacansoleil-DCM duo Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra. In the Tour de France this year, De Gendt started right before Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to not to change that fact. Fighting to keep Tony Martin behind him, Thomas De Gendt put in such a strong performance that he finished third on the stage. This time, his teammate Lieuwe Westra is starting right after De Gendt. Westra isn't on the same level as Tony Martin, but I still expect him to do Top10 this Wednesday. In fact, Lieuwe Westra says that being the first to catch Thomas De Gendt in a time trial is an extra motivation for him. It will be interesting to see how the two - soon to be - former teammates will perform against each other.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

The World
Championship week in Florence starts out with a team time trial this Sunday.
Last year Omega Pharma Quickstep won in front of BMC and GreenEdge and this
time I expect the same three teams to make the podium. However, Team Sky has the manpower to change a repetition of the 2012-podium.

Unlike last
year’s edition, this course is - except for a short climb of 4:30 min in the beginning -
completely flat. This combined with a distance of 57.2 km means it’s all about
the speed.Therefore, we can expect the teams with big powerhouses to fight for
the win. There are long and flat sections without any turns and guys like Tony
Martin, Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara and Luke Durbridge can really make a difference here. The last 10 km are a very technical. There are at least 10 sharp corners in
this part and you can lose and gain a lot of time in these corners. It's very important not to panic in the corners. The last time check is right before the technical part so it's not certain the ranking here will be the same as at finish.

Looking at
the teams this year, it’s clear that Omega Pharma Quickstep is the big
favorite. The Belgian team sends five (Martin, Velits, Chavanel, Terpstra &
Vandewalle) of the six winning riders from last year. Only change is Tom Boonen
who is being replaced by season sensation Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole has been
in Top8 in all of the six individual time trials he’s been doing this year!
While other teams may not look as strong as last year, OPQS is actually even
better this time. I clearly expect the team to repeat their winning performance
from 2012.

BMC came
very close to winning last year but this time, I think they will have to fight
hard just to get the silver medals. Time trial specialist Marco Pinotti is
missing and so are Alessandro Ballan and Philippe Gilbert. Instead, Steve
Cummings, Daniel Oss and Michael Schar are joining Taylor Phinney, Tejay Van
Garderen and Manuel Quinziato. Both Phinney, Cummings and Schar were part of
the BMC team winning the team time trial in Qatar earlier this year. However,
BMC hasn’t performed well in the important team time trials the rest of the
year and without a key rider like Pinotti, I think a silver medal - if even so - is the best
they can get in Florence.

The biggest
threat to BMC’s second place is GreenEdge. The Australian team did very well
last year, even on a course not suited for their riders’ characteristics. With
big engines like Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Jens Mouris and Daryl Impey,
GreenEdge will be able to extremely fast on the long flat parts. Add to that
Brett Lancaster and Michael Hepburn and you really have a strong team for a
fast course. All six riders live in Girona and they have been training together
for this discipline the last two weeks. A team time trial is all about working
together as one and looking at the riders and their training, I think GreenEdge
is the best pick to win this race if something happens to OPQS.

The way I
see it, it will be difficult for the rest of the teams to medal against OPQS,
GreenEdge and BMC. However, teams like Radioshack, Garmin, Saxo-Tinkoff, Astana and especially Team Sky will all be gunning for the podium as well. Garmin used to be among
the best in this discipline but it’s been a while since they have produced a
great team time trial. Astana did very well in the Giro (third) and in the
Vuelta (first) but without Vincenzo Nibali to lead them, I doubt they will be
able to make Top3 this time.

On the last
day of the Vuelta, Nicolas Roche said that Saxo-Tinkoff was very eager to do
well in Florence. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the team time trial
and according to Roche, the Danish team aims for a spot on the podium. Christensen,
Boaro, Roche, Mørkøv, Sørensen and Tosatto are
the six riders for Sunday’s race and it will be interesting to see if they can live
up to their own expectations. Personally, I don’t think they will do better
than top5 but it wouldn’t be the first time the Danish team surprises in a TTT.

Radioshack
is another solid Top5 candidate and on a good day may even Top3. Fabian
Cancellara is in excellent shape right now and together with Jesse Sergent,
Hayden Roulston, Yaroslav Popovych, Markel Iriza and youngster Bob Jungels, the
team should be able to keep a high pace. However, Cancellara’s big goal this
year is the road race. He’s the bookmakers’ top favorite for the title and the
question is; “how deep will Cancellara dig in the time trials?” None of the
other favorites are doing all three races (TTT, ITT & RR) and if Cancellara
isn’t pushing it to his limits, he won’t be able to carry the team like he did
in the team time trial in the Vuelta last month.

Map of the 57.2 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence. Pay attention to the technical last part of the route.

In recent
years, it would be a mistake not to mention Movistar among the candidates. Once
again, they have a strong team for this time trial but I doubt they will be
able to better than 7th-10th place. Rui Costa, Jonathan
Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Jesus Herrada, Ruben Plaza and Eloy Teruel are all
good time trialists but as stated in the beginning, this race is all about
speed. Had this been a hilly team time trial like the ones we’ve seen in the
Giro and the Vuelta in the past, Movistar would have been one of the favorites.
However, on a 57.2 km flat course, there are simply other teams with bigger
engines.

As of
Saturday afternoon Garmin still hasn’t released their final teams yet. Both
have the firepower to do very well this Sunday but as mentioned earlier, Garmin
hasn’t really been able to deliver a good team time trial on the big scene for
a while. Still, judging from the eight pre-selected riders, this may be their
strongest team in a long time. No matter which six riders they end up picking,
they are all strong on a flat course like this one. The team time trial used to
be their specialty and I’m sure Garmin will be eager to show the world they still
have what it takes fight for the win against the best teams.

On paper,
Team Sky also has a very strong team. All of their six selected riders (Froome, Porte, Boasson Hagen, Kiryienka, Siutsou & Thomas) did the Tour de France this year and individually they are all great time trialists. Chris Froome is leading the team but just like Fabian Cancellara, Froome's main focus is on the road race next Sunday. Of course, both Froome and Cancellara will be a huge help for their
teams but thinking of the road race, they may hold back a little or decide not
to take any risks in many sharp corner in the last part of the course.For live coverage of the team time trial go to steephill.tv - and click here to see the starting order.