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The Denver Broncos (1-3), a win away will host the AFC West-leading San Diego Chargers (3-1) on Sunday, with the Mile High City crew taking a third crack at its 400th regular-season win. Kickoff from Sports Authority Field at Mile High is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

San Diego opened up as a 6-point road favorite in NFL betting, but the number has fallen by at least two points everywhere. The total has been bet down a point to 46.

In last year’s trip to Denver, the Chargers came away with a 33-28 win as 5-point favorites, out-gaining the Broncos by 110 yards. Head coach Norv Turner has taken his team on the road just once this year, dropping a 35-21 decision to the New England Patriots as 6½-point underdogs.

San Diego had every opportunity to win that game, but ultimately lost the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin.

The Chargers have won eight of the past 10 games in the series, including three in a row. Bettors will find that the squad is 7-1-2 ATS over that span.

Second-year running back Ryan Mathews has become a offensive weapon in the backfield, coming into this week with a team-high 288 rushing yards and 19 catches for 254 yards. It’s still important to note that the Chargers are 15th in the league in scoring 22.8 points per game, a drop-off from their normal production, which many attribute to the inability of tight end Antonio Gates to stay on the field.

The All-Pro is listed as doubtful on the injury report with plantar fascilitis in his right foot. He has played in just 12 of 20 possible games for the team since the start of the 2010 campaign.

Denver knows it has quite a mountain to climb in trying to avoid an 0-2 start in the division, as the team dropped a 23-20 season-opening contest to the Oakland Raiders as three-point home favorites. The Broncos have struggled mightily on the defensive end in this series, allowing at least 32 points eight times since the 2006 season, including a combined 68 points in last year’s two meetings.

Quarterback Kyle Orton’s leash is getting shorter and shorter, as the losses continue to pile up, coming in with a 6-20 record in his last 26 starts. The former Chicago Bears signal caller has turned the ball over eight times, including six interceptions.

Defensively, the unit is anticipating the return of veteran cornerback Champ Bailey, who is listed as probable with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of three games this season. Over that span, the Broncos have allowed 1,001 passing yards, which is the second-most over a three-game period in the history of the franchise.

His return is vital in trying to slow down San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers, who has averaged 238.5 yards per game and thrown for 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 11 career games against Denver.

The Broncos are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 home games, but bettors will find that the team is 11-5-2 ATS when getting points in the Mile High City.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time temperatures in the low-50s and a slight chance of rain showers in the Denver area.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman of Caesars Palace stopped by DonBest.com to take a look at the biggest betting topics around college football and the National Football League.

Over the past weekend, the books saw two huge NCAA matchups with uncompetitive second halves, as well as the prime-time NFL games continuing to go ‘over’ the total.

Fuhrman noted that a lot of attention from their betting patrons was on the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators out of the SEC. ‘Bama was road chalk at -4 and while Florida led 10-3 in the first quarter, the game went the way of the Tide after that. The final score of 38-10 hardly put any anxiety into those who took the favorite.

Another big matchup on Saturday also ended up in a blowout on the favorite’s side as the Wisconsin Badgers ran away with a 48-17 victory in the Nebraska Cornhuskers’ first ever Big Ten conference game. The Badgers covered easily at -10.

As for the NFL, stand-alone night games are relentlessly going ‘over’ sitting at 8-1-1 on the year. While quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco were underperforming, to put it kindly, the game between the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets saw five different returns for touchdowns. Then, when it seemed as if Monday night might produce a low score, running back LeGarrette Blount sealed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers victory over the Indianapolis Colts with a late TD score in the fourth quarter. A field goal would have been appreciated by the books but the final of 24-17 went ‘over’ by a ½ point.

This week, college football offers a marquee matchup bright and early. No. 2 Oklahoma is a 10½-point favorite as the Sooners take on the No. 14 Texas Longhorns on a neutral field. Caesars is also showing a total of 56½ on the Don Best odds screen.

While more money could be generated from a prime time slot, the possibility of a great early morning game has a definite upside. “It really sets the tone for the full day,” says Fuhrman. “So if we get a good game that goes down to the wire, the energy will carry through to the rest of the day.”

In an SEC matchup, the Florida Gators are a 13½-point underdog on the road against the LSU Tigers. The Gators, ranked No. 19 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, lost quarterback John Brantley in the Alabama game and freshman Jeff Driskel is expected to take his place against the No. 4 Tigers. The total is 41½.

In one of the last games on Saturday's collegiate slate, the No. 29 TCU Horned Frogs head to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Texas Christain is currently -4½ with a total set at 56½. Fuhrman believes SDSU and QB Ryan Lindley could be a “stiff challenge” for a team that had a narrow 40-35 victory over the Aztecs a year ago.

On the Sunday NFL slate, the Philadelphia Eagles head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Most would have predicted these records to be flip-flopped with the Eagles at 1-3 and the Bills at 3-1. However, Philly is still a 3-point road favorite and the total is 49½. Buffalo was getting a lot of interest in this matchup, but the Bills' loss to Cincy has turned some bettors off.

Finally, NBC’s Sunday Night Football will showcase a playoff rematch from a year ago between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. The public is pounding the Packers -6 right now and of course, that ‘over’ trend is looming with a total of 53½. That postseason game last season quickly turned ugly for the Falcons who lost, 48-21.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The Border War between the New England Patriots and New York Jets continues Sunday afternoon with both teams having major question marks. CBS will broadcast at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots opened as 10-point home favorites in this always-entertaining battle, but it’s now nine at most shops listed at Don Best. The NFL betting total is also down a point from 50 to 49.

The Jets (2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) haven’t started as expected and have only played one solid game, 32-3 at home against Jacksonville in Week 2. The last two weeks were their first two road contests, losses at Oakland (34-24) and Baltimore (34-17), going 0-2 ATS.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been the poster child for the recent troubles. He lost three fumbles last week, two run back all the way, and another interception for a touchdown. His performance was so bad that receiver Santonio Holmes called him out in the media, usually a big no-no.

The third-year signal caller from USC has performed well in the playoffs (94.3 quarterback rating), but is average-at-best in the regular season (71 career rating). His 36.8 pass attempts are up this year as head coach Rex Ryan tried to enhance the passing game with Holmes, Plaxico Burress and tight end Dustin Keller.

Ryan has vowed to revert to the ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack that was so successful last season (148.4 YPG, ranked fourth). The problem is that new featured back Shonn Greene is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and the 71 YPG total ranks 30th. The same offensive line that can’t protect Sanchez is also not run blocking well.

The Jets are desperate to get center Nick Mangold (ankle) back this week. He missed the last two games and the Ravens overran rookie Colin Baxter, forcing Ryan to unsuccessfully shuffle things around in-game. Mangold is probable and always does a good job against Patriots behemoth Vince Wilfork.

The Patriots (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) last saw the Jets in the playoffs, getting shocked 28-21 as 9 ½-point home favorites, a similar spread to this game. The Jets were able to run the ball (120 yards) and Sanchez threw for 194 yards, three TDs and no picks. Getting an early interception from Tom Brady really swung the momentum.

New England isn’t thinking about revenge. This is all about trying to win the AFC East and getting home-field advantage again in the playoffs. Hurting the Jets eventual playoff hopes is another added bonus. The other Jets visit to Foxboro last year was a 45-3 blowout win by the Pats.

Coach Bill Belichick finally found some offensive balance at Oakland (31-19 win) last week, running for 183 yards and throwing for 226. The averages the first three games were 103 running and 438 passing. Rookie running back Stevan Ridley (97 yards last week) looks like a find and will continue to get more carries.

The 50 combined points scored last week went ‘under’ the 55-point total. The ‘over’ was easily 3-0 in New England first three games and 19-3 in the previous 22 overall.

Keeping the offense balanced is crucial. Brady threw four picks in the Week 3 loss (34-31) at Buffalo after leading 21-0. Some of that was bad luck, but the Jets pass defense knows how to take away the middle of the field. Look for Darrelle Revis to cover the NFL’s leading receiver Wes Welker (616 yards) and make Brady throw outside to less reliable guys like Chad Ochocinco.

The Patriots have only played one home game this year, 35-21 over San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites in Week 2. They’ve won 18-straight regular season home games (11-6-1 ATS). However, home playoffs losses to Baltimore in 2009 and the Jets last year temper that statistic.

New England has major issues with pass defense (368.8 YPG, ranked last), with an average run defense (108.8 YPG, ranked 18th). Even the mediocre Jason Campbell threw for 344 yards last week, although 99 were on the meaningless final drive. Sanchez needs to complete short passes early for his confidence, but also needs a running game for play-action to be effective.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Jets road games this year and 17-4-1 in the last 22 away. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the teams in New England.

New England is missing key linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) and defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth (back), and several others are questionable. The team has good depth and always seems to have someone to step up.

Weather is expected to be beautiful for this time of year, sunny and in the 70s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

A couple of key injuries for the Pittsburgh Steelers have contributed to the biggest line move of Week 5 in the NFL as the defending AFC champions prepare to host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

The Steelers opened as 6 ½-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen but have seen the line shrink to -3 against a Tennessee team that has surprised many early this season as a contender in the AFC South.

Pittsburgh (2-2) is expected to have starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center despite the fact that he suffered a sprained left foot in last week’s 17-10 road loss to the Houston Texans. The Texans (3-1) are the favorites to win the AFC South but are being challenged by the Titans (3-1), who have won their last three games and own the NFL’s eighth-ranked run defense.

Tennessee is allowing just 87.8 yards per game on the ground and may not have to face Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall due to a hamstring injury. Mendenhall is listed as questionable and would be replaced in the starting lineup by Isaac Redman if he can’t go.

The biggest news of the weekend so far came Saturday though with the passing of Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis, who was a revolutionary figure in the league but was often criticized for his failure to let go of the franchise he helped build. Davis was 82 years old and spent 60 of them working in the AFL and NFL. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1992.

The Raiders (2-2) went 6-0 in the AFC West last year and finished 8-8, their first non-losing campaign since their last Super Bowl appearance following the 2002 season. They could be extra motivated to play in honor of Davis this week during their visit to Houston, and have seen small betting action in their favor, as the line has dropped a half-point to five.

Another decent line move involves two other teams within Oakland’s division. The San Diego Chargers (3-1) opened as 6-point road favorites against the Denver Broncos (1-3), who are now +3 ½ at most sportsbooks. This game is viewed as critical for Denver after getting blown out 49-23 last week on the road by the Green Bay Packers. The Broncos have dropped eight of the last 10 meetings with San Diego and are 1-7-2 against the spread in those games. The Chargers have had their way with Denver offensively in the series since 2006, totaling 32 points or more eight times with an average score of 36-19.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-4) are favored for the first time this season and hope to notch their first victory of '11 against the Kansas City Chiefs (1-3). The Colts opened as 2-point home favorites and have been bet up slightly to -2 ½ at some sportsbooks. They will be starting QB Curtis Painter for the second week in a row after he got the nod in Monday night’s 24-17 road loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Painter played decent in his first career start against the Bucs, throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns.

The Chiefs are coming off their first win at home against the Minnesota Vikings 22-17 but are 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 games against AFC opponents.

The Vikings (0-4) are also going for their first win of 2011 as they host the Arizona Cardinals (2-2). Minnesota opened as a 3-point favorite, and there has been virtually no line movement. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is dealing with an ankle injury but is listed as probable on the injury report while his counterpart Beanie Wells is questionable with a hamstring injury for the Cardinals after carrying the ball 27 times for 138 yards and scoring three touchdowns in a 31-27 home loss to the New York Giants last week.

The Giants (3-1) are not expected to have RB Brandon Jacobs in the backfield when they host the Seattle Seahawks (1-3) due to a knee injury, so Ahmad Bradshaw should get most of the carries. New York opened as a 10-point favorite and has retained that status at most books.

Sunday night’s playoff rematch between the defending Super Bowl champion Packers (4-0) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) has seen the line move in the road team’s favor. The Packers opened as 4-point favorites in their first visit to Atlanta since crushing the Falcons 48-21 in last year’s NFC divisional playoffs and have been bet up to -6 in some spots.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Whether or not the Buffalo Bills were mentally exhausted or not, their loss to the lowly Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday was a big win for bettors who played the “classic letdown scenario” strategy.

The Bills, of course, were coming off back-to-back comeback victories over the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots, both of them at home in front of their long-suffering fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium. All of a sudden the city was buzzing after its beloved team intercepted the great Tom Brady four times, beat the Pats for the first time in 16 tries and moved to a shocking 3-0 record.

Next up for the Bills came a trip to Cincinnati as favorites to play in front of a record-low crowd for Paul Brown Stadium of around 40,000. You’d forgive them for being less than excited.

Granted, Buffalo was leading big at halftime over the Bengals, 17-3, so it’s not like it was sluggish from the start. But Cincinnati’s rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton, led the home team back for a 34-31 victory.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was understandably upset with the loss, but he wasn’t willing to concede it had anything to do with an emotional letdown.

"I don't know if it had anything to do with all the emotion from last week's game," he said. "It had more to do with us flat-out not showing up in the second half."

There’s also the possibility that the Bills aren’t actually very good.

Regardless, the loss to the Bengals was more ammunition for bettors who like to play letdown scenarios. Over at Bodog’s online sportsbook we booked a few big wagers on Cincinnati, and while there were numerous possible reasons the game went the way it did, you can be sure those bettors will be looking for the next time they can enact the same strategy.

Elsewhere in Week 4 in the NFL, we saw a lot of bettors get burned by the Philadelphia Eagles, who lost at home, 24-23, as big favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. This was a real surprise for a lot of people – especially the radio host in Philly that said he’d take a bike to San Francisco if the Eagles lost. Have a good trip!

What a crushing defeat though. The 1-2 Eagles were really in a must-win scenario before the 49ers came to town. Philadelphia was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, yet three weeks into the season it was already behind the eight ball.

Meanwhile, the 49ers were sitting pretty at 2-1 atop the NFC West, and considering the strength of the division, a 2-2 record would hardly have been a huge problem.

You really have to wonder if the Eagles, now 1-3, can recover from this start. They’re off to Buffalo next week to play a Bills team that will be able to feed off the crowd and probably won’t be in a very good mood after losing to the Bengals.

After Buffalo, it’s a trip to Washington to play the surprising Redskins, who will be well-rested after their bye.

Lose just one of those games and it could be lights out for Philly.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Weather could be the final piece of your handicapping puzzle. Find out which NFL games will be impacted by Mother Nature in Week 5:

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-17, 37.5)

The forecast in Jacksonville is calling for thunderstorms and a 76 percent chance of rain. Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing ENE from sideline to sideline at EverBank Field. This total opened at 35.5 and has climbed two points as of Saturday afternoon.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51.5)

Winds will reach speed in the mid teens at Bank of America Stadium, blowing NE from corner to corner. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 41.5)

Winds are expected to pick up in the second half at Candlestick Park. There will be a breeze, blowing West from sideline to sideline of speeds of up to 15 mph. The total has climbed from 40.5 to its current stand.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 45.5)

There is a 10 percent chance of showers in the Mile High City Sunday. The forecast is calling for rain and game-time temperatures in the low 50s. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 45.5.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

THE STORY: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t stopped toying with defenses since he and the Green Bay Packers left the Georgia Dome with a stunningly one-sided win over the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons last January. The question is: Have the Falcons improved enough to slow him, or at least keep up offensively, this time around? The answer to both those questions will come Sunday night as Rodgers, off to a blistering start, returns to Atlanta looking to lead the defending Super Bowl champions to an 11th straight win against the Falcons.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: Green Bay opened as a 3.5-point road favorite and has since been bet up to 5.5. The total opened at 54 and has dropped to 53 points.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-2): QB Matt Ryan’s new favorite target is first-round pick Julio Jones, who leads all rookies with 24 catches for 342 yards. Despite the addition of Jones, Atlanta is a middling 16th in scoring (22.5 ppg). The pass defense, which was the Achilles heel in the playoff loss to the Packers, also is still an issue (24th in the league, 275.5 ypg). Prized free agent DE Ray Edwards has yet to record a sack, and Atlanta hasn’t reached the quarterback in three games. Conversely, Atlanta's offensive line has struggled to protect Ryan, who has been sacked 13 times.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-0): The Packers, who lead in the NFL in scoring (37.0 ppg), have totaled a franchise-record 148 points over the first four games. Against Denver, Rodgers became the first player in NFL history to have 400 yards passing (408), four touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. He is first in the league in completion percentage (73.0) and second in touchdowns (12). WR Jordy Nelson, who signed a three-year contract extension this week, has three touchdowns in the first four games. The offense should be at full strength with both RB Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) and RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) expected to return. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it is Green Bay’s pass defense, which ranks next-to-last in the NFL (335.8 ypg).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Packers CB Charles Woodson returned an interception for a touchdown last week. It was the 11th of his career – one shy of tying Hall of Famer Rod Woodson (no relation) for the most in NFL history.

2. Rodgers was 31 of 36 for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-21 divisional-round win over Atlanta. He is 82 of 108 for 1,023 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in three starts vs. the Falcons.

3. Ryan is 21-2 at home in three-plus years as a starter.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Falcons 24. Rodgers is absolutely on fire right now and the Falcons’ lack of a pass rush will be their downfall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The lines are on the move for Week 5 of the NFL schedule. We talked to some Las Vegas sportsbook managers to get the inside scoop behind these adjustments:

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -5 Move: -3

A few offshore shops had this game with the Steelers favored by 5 but most sportsbooks opened at 3.5.

With Ben Roethlisberger taking snaps on a bum ankle, money is coming in on the Titans, moving this number down to a field goal. However, not everyone is betting against the Steelers. They’re also wagering on an improved Titans team with a tough defense and a reborn Chris Johnson.

The total is climbing for this West vs. North NFC matchup. Arizona scored 27 points in a loss to the Giants, getting a big day from RB Beanie Wells, who is expected to be back on the field despite a lingering hamstring injury.

“Sometimes, you can’t really explain the moves,” says Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sportsbook for the Las Vegas Hilton.” I don’t think the total move has that much to do with Wells. He’s a good back but not three points good.”

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans – Open: -7 Move: -5

Losing Andre Johnson is a big hit for the Texans to take after such a physical game against the Steelers last week. Books factored the loss of the stud WR into the line, but bettors have still jumped all over the Raiders. Oakland will be playing with a lot of emotion following the passing of owner Al Davis Saturday.

“A lot of sharps like Oakland this week,” says Kornegay. “To many people, this is a good spot to play the Raiders with Houston coming off the tough win over the Steelers. They’re playing the ‘Steelers Factor’, with teams struggling the week after playing Pittsburgh.”

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -9.5 Move: -7.5

It’s do or die time for the Jets, which is why bettors are taking the points and hoping New York comes up big against its AFC East rival.

“This is a huge game for them,” Kornegay says about the Jets. “The whole rah-rah Ryan movement could come down to how well the Jets play against the Patriots. This is the turning point for New York’s season.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: +6 Move +3.5

Are bettors smelling another San Diego swoon? The Chargers are winning ugly and now come to Denver to face an improving division rival. Kornegay points to the injuries to the Bolts passing game and the return to health for many of the Broncos’ key players.

“This is a much bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Chargers,” he says.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The older I get, the more I appreciate things that stay the same. There’s something comforting knowing hamburgers will always taste better with bacon, Pearl Jam will always make magnificent music and Jennifer Aniston will always be hot.

Maybe it’s because as an NFL bettor, it’s so hard to see holding patterns. Do you know who the three winless teams were after Week 4 last season? The 49ers, Lions and Bills. Those teams’ combined record this season after Week 4? Yup, you guessed it – really good, 10-2 straight up (8-2-2 ATS) to be exact.

And what about the perceived powers coming into this campaign? The Falcons, Eagles and Steelers all look bad. Not unlucky… just bad.

What you think you know about the NFL can change as quickly as Clark Kent in a phone booth.

I know what you’re thinking. This just sounds like a bullshit excuse coming from an NFL writer who can’t pick winners to save his life. Well, after a 2-2 week I’m still a game above .500 on the season, so don’t jump ship on me yet.

Still, there are a few things I feel pretty confident about in pro football. Like how Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre are never going to be bosom buddies.

OK, enough with this sad excuse for a lead. Let’s pick out some puppies.

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Houston Texans

I don’t know how the Raiders players felt about their former owner. Al Davis was a volatile guy and not everyone loved him. But he took a chance on a lot of the players starring on the club this season.

Andre Johnson, the world’s best wideout, isn’t suiting up for Houston which is a huge loss for Matt Schaub and the Texans offense.

Look for Oakland to pay tribute to its recently deceased owner by picking up a big road win.

Pick: Raiders +5.5

New York Jets (+7.5) at New England Patriots

Oh boy. It would have been great to nab this line when Gang Green was getting 9.5 points early in the week, but there’s not much we can do about that now.

The Jets have their flaws and they’ve been on display for all of us to pick at, but that doesn’t mean Rex Ryan’s troops are going to get blown out at Foxboro.

New York gets All-Pro center Nick Mangold back and Darrelle Revis will slow down Wes Welker.

Pick: Jets +7.5

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Loved this quote from our CoversSports twitter feed last Sunday after the Panthers pulled off another miracle back-door cover:

Fred Jackson is coming off a bad week against a good run defense, but Chan Gailey knows that he should find plenty of success Sunday.

"We'd like to use Fred Jackson a little more," the head coach said.

The Bills are averaging 137.0 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. Jackson has posted a 5.8 yards-per-carry mark through four games.

Philly has been feeble against the run. The Eagles are allowing an average of 139.5 yards a game and 5.3 yards a carry. They gave up 164 to the Niners last Sunday and 177 to the Giants the week before.

After Week 2, the Eagles played musical chairs with their linebackers to see if that would help production. The following week they benched Casey Matthews and safety Kurt Coleman. Losing stud lineman Trent Cole only compounds the problem.

Juan Castillo has mostly failed in his new role as defensive coordinator. His job is safe for the time being but Andy Reid said Monday he was "wide open" for a change in scheme going forward.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 51)

Cerberus vs. Panthers run defense

In case you aren't versed in Greek mythology the above name refers to a three-headed hound that guards the gates of the Underworld. Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles comprise the Saints monstrous three-man rushing attack.

Sean Payton has made a point to run more in 2011. Injuries decimated this phase of the offense last year but New Orleans ranks 10th in the league this season with 119.0 rushing yards per game. Last week against a decent Jags run defense, the Saints registered 177 on the ground.

Carolina’s offense has been shockingly good but the run defense needs help. Losing two starting linebackers, and having two rookies on the interior of the line, have left this defense extremely vulnerable against the run.

The Panthers rank 31st in the league against the run at 143.8 yards an outing. They also give up 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Matt Forte gashed that unit for 205 yards last Sunday on just 25 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew had 122 on 24 attempts the week before.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9, 49.5)

Jets situation vs. Patriots revenge

The Pats haven’t forgotten about losing to New York at home in the playoffs last year as 9.5-point chalk. They also haven’t forgotten the image of Jets players flying around the field afterward like a classless bunch of clowns.

Bill Belichick holds grudges. There’s no chance the Patriots will let off the gas Sunday. If they’re up three scores, they will go for it on fourth-and-goal. They did it last week, and they even like the Raiders (because Al Davis feeds them draft picks).

This is the third straight road game for the Jets. Nick Mangold is expected to return but Bryan Thomas will be missed immensely at outside linebacker.

Tom Brady didn’t ask fans to get “lubed up” for this game like he did San Diego but with another late start time at Foxboro, you know they will be.

An added incentive is that New England will be wearing its 1985 throwback uniforms with red jerseys and the “Pat Patriot” helmet logo. They wore them twice last season against the Vikings and Lions, both games were double-digit wins.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 52.5)

Aaron Rodgers vs. Falcons pass defense

If Tarvaris Jackson can throw for 319 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta, the numbers for Aaron Rodgers are going to be ridiculous Sunday night.

And Mr. Rodgers comes into this contest white hot. He threw for 401 yards and four scores last weekend. The offense came away with touchdowns on five of its six trips inside the red zone and converted 9 of 13 third downs. Green Bay is averaging 37.0 points per game in 2011.

The Falcons failed to record a single sack last week against a young Seattle line that has been beaten like a mule. If they couldn’t get to Jackson, they will be lucky to lay a hand on Rodgers.

The Packers couldn’t’ be stopped in the dome last postseason, rolling to a 48-21 victory as 1-point pups. Rodgers misfired on just five of his 36 attempts while throwing for 366 yards and three touchdowns.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

NFL: The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six against the AFC.

NFL: The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The Brewers are 16-0 in Zack Greinke's last 16 home starts.

NHL: The Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven road games.

Who’s not

NFL: The Eagles and Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall.

NFL: The Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.

MLB: The under is 1-5 in the Cardinals' last six road games.

NHL: The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six overall.

Key stat

15 – The Eagles have done very little right this season, but they are tops in the NFL in one category—sacks, with 15. Seven have come courtesy of league-leader Jason Babin. Something will have to give on Sunday when Philly travels to Buffalo to face the prolific 3-1 Bills. A big reason for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s success is a strong offensive line in front of him. The Bills have allowed just three sacks all season long, second fewest in the league.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Ben Roethlisberger is not only Steeler banged up after last week's loss at Houston. Pittsburgh has a serious situation at running back, with Rashard Mendenhall questionable due to a hamstring injury. Mendenhall had been out all week but practice on a limited basis Friday. One backup, Mewelde Moore, is already out with an ankle problem. If Mendenhall can't go, Isaac Redman will get most of the work out of the backfield. The Patriots are going up against a Tennessee defense that is currently eighth in the NFL against the run at 87.8 yards per game.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5, 50)

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (5.5, 52.5)

Notable quotable

“We're getting back to the basics. That's how I would define this week. Getting back to the things we do well. That's how we're going to get it done.” – New York Jets’ running back LaDainian Tomlinson on his team’s mentality heading into a Week 5 showdown against the Patriots. New York is coming off a well-publicized Sunday night loss at Baltimore.

Tips and notes

Oakland Raiders' head coach Hue Jackson on the passing of Al Davis: "Obviously, it's a tremendous loss. I just know coach. He would want us to go out and play like Raiders. What a tremendous person; tremendous man. I owe him so much. This league owes him so much. He's a legend and an icon, and we're going to honor him by playing the way the Raiders should play." They will look to do that on Sunday at Houston, an important AFC clash between the 2-2 Raiders and the 3-1 Texans.

Not surprisingly, there won't be much love lost between the Cardinals and Brewers when the division rivals battle for the National League Championship, and a lot of that obviously has to do with Nyjer Morgan. After a heated regular-season clash between the two teams, Morgan hurled his chewing tobacco at Chris Carpenter and called Albert Pujols "Alberta" in a tweet. In early September, when St. Louis appeared out of it, Morgan offered a grammatically-challenged tweet: "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!! Aaaaahhhh!!!"

As of Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers' starting goalie for Sunday's season opener is still a mystery. Devan Dubnyk and Nikolai Khabibulin will compete for playing time and will likely split starts until one separates himself from the other, just as they did throughout much of last season. Dubnyk (2.71 GAA) played in 35 games last season while Khabibulin (3.40 GAA) appeared in 47 contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Why Raiders cover: They can run ball, which keeps Texans QB Matt Schaub off field. Even in a 31-19 home loss to Patriots, Oakland gained 160 yards on ground. Raiders lead league at 178.8 rushing ypg. Oakland has cashed five straight following a SU loss.

Why Texans cover: Well, it appears Arian Foster can once again run ball, after blowing up for 155 yards in win vs. Pittsburgh. Houston 5-1 ATS last six vs. Men in Black.

Total (48.5): Raiders like to play to over, with streaks of 6-2 overall and 12-4 inside AFC. But Texans on under run of 5-1 last six as a chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They cashed last year in 27-24 loss at Minnesota, with Derek Anderson at QB. Kevin Kolb a big upgrade, going against aging Donovan McNabb. Underdog the play in last five Cards-Vikes matchups.

Why Jaguars cover: Have hit five of last six ATS laying points at home.

Total (37): With two under-developed rookie QBs, game has all makings of an under. All four Jacksonville games this year have gone low.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

Why Seahawks cover: The G-Men are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 laying points at home.

Why Giants cover: Seattle still starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB. And Seahawks rarely good making three time-zone trip to East Coast. Most recent case in point: 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.

Total (43.5): Seahawks have paid over bettors 12 of last 15 overall and six of last seven on highway.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

Why Eagles cover: They are flat-out desperate. Sexy Super Bowl pick sitting at 1-3 SU and ATS, and could be three games out in NFC East if they stumble in this spot. Bills 3-10-1 ATS last 15 as home pup.

Why Bills cover: Previously unbeaten, but got dose of reality at Cincinnati and should be ready this week. In last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. rallied from 21-0 deficit to shock Patriots. Philly on slew of negative pointspread streaks, including 1-6 overall and 1-7 giving points.

Total (49.5): Total has gone high every game this year for Buffalo and five straight overall. Over a scorching 10-1 in Philly’s last 11 roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Saints cover: Big advantage at QB, with veteran and former Super Bowl winner Drew Brees vs. Panthers rookie and top draft pick Cam Newton. In this rivalry, Saints 7-2 ATS last nine in Carolina and road team 20-8 ATS last 28.

Why Panthers cover: Newton coming along far better than expected, helping Carolina cover three of four so far. In fact, he’s passing for 374 ypg, third in league, one spot ahead of Brees (351 ypg). New Orleans 4-9 ATS last 13 NFC South games.

Total (51.5): With all the yards these two QBs rack up, over could come in, even as high as it is. But in this division rivalry, under has hit four straight overall and eight straight at Carolina. Under also 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 division tilts.

Total (41): Over 3-1 for both teams this year and 4-0 in San Fran’s last four at Candlestick. But under 4-1 Bucs’ last five on highway.

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos

Why Chargers cover: Because that’s what they generally do in this AFC West rivalry, going 7-1-2 ATS last 10. Philip Rivers is a very good QB for San Diego. Kyle Orton is not – after winning his first six starts for Broncos, he’s gone 6-20. Denver 11-27-2 ATS last 40 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: This is like a traffic cop at an accident, telling bystanders, “Nothing to see here.” But if we must: Chargers on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall and 2-6-1 on the road.

Total (46): With Denver involved, over constantly in play, like in last week’s 49-23 loss at Green Bay. Over on runs for Broncos of 7-1 overall, 10-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in Denver vs. Chargers.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Why Jets cover: That’s a lot of points for a team that reached past two AFC title games. And road team 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in this rivalry.

Total (49.5): Both teams play to over a lot. For Jets, over on surges of 9-1 in underdog role and 17-4-1 on road. QB Tom Brady and prolific Pats offense putting up 33.8 ppg this year, and over has gone 16-5-1 last 22 in Foxborough.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Packers cover: They play like Super Bowl champs that they are. Packers have won 10 in a row SU and gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch. One of those wins was 48-21 shellacking of Atlanta in playoffs at Georgia Dome last season.

Total (53.5): Despite Packers’ penchant for scoring, under 10-3 in last 13 on highway and 7-1 in last eight as road chalk.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Why Bears cover: They seem to shine under Monday night spotlight, at 5-1 ATS in last six appearances. And Detroit lacks that experience, playing first MNF game in 10 years.

Why Lions cover: If they were due for letdown, it was last week at Dallas. And they did let down for a half, before huge comeback win. Detroit favored for first time in years in this NFC North rivalry, and Jim Schwartz’s troops want whole nation to see they’re no fluke. Lions among best bets in league, with ATS streaks of 16-5-2 overall, 9-1-1 after SU win and 12-2-2 after spread-cover.

Total (47.5): Bears tend to play to under, while Lions play to over. But when these rivals meet, over 4-1 last five overall and 4-1 last five at Ford Field. Detroit’s QB-wideout connection of Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson looks unstoppable

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been standing between the Jets and the Super Bowl for more than a decade now, and the mere mention of them fuels their fire, their fight and their forever obsession. Even last January, when they knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs with the mother of all defensive game plans, there was a price for the Jets to pay in the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh for one reason; they already played their Super Bowl.

The stakes are not nearly as high today, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a game that could alter the course of the season. Coach Rex Ryan’s well-documented designs on dethroning the Patriots as division champs and possibly hosting the 2011 AFC Championship — and avoiding a three-game losing streak that would test every ounce of his team’s mettle and fiber, hinge on whether he can prevent Brady from his 30th consecutive regular-season victory at home and prevent Belichick from avenging one of the more painful defeats of his Hall of Fame career.

When the Jets show up today — under a relentless shower of venom from a fan base that apparently sees an interlocking NY on the enemy’s helmets — they will show up sick of devouring humble pie and vowing to prove to the outside world, and to Belichick and Brady, that what they did to this Evil Empire the last time they met was no fluke.

“If we perform to the way we know how to play, I think we’re a good team. We’re a great team,” Sione Pouha said.

Do you think you’re the better team?

“If we come to play Sunday the way we know how to play, we’re the better team,” Pouha said.

You expect to play that way?

“Yes,” Pouha said.

Apparently Ryan has installed swagger fountains inside the Atlantic Health Jets Training center because his players have been drinking from it after wandering aimlessly lately through the forbidding NFL desert.

I asked Mike DeVito: Even after the last two weeks, is there a feeling here that you guys are the better team?

“Yes, definitely, without a doubt,” DeVito said. “You got to go into a game thinking that, you know what I mean? Nobody goes into the game thinking they’re the worst team, you know what I mean.”

Of course I know what you mean. But entering the season you guys felt that it was your time, and that you were the better team. Do you still feel that way?

“One hundred percent, yeah, definitely,” DeVito said. “There’s nothing but confidence and trust in this room. We know we’re the better team and know we’ll be ready to play on Sunday.”

I asked Dustin Keller: Even after the last two weeks, does this team feel it is a better team than the Patriots?

“Yeah, without question,” Keller said. “We never doubt ourselves. We came out flat the last couple of weeks, but we feel that when we’re on top of our game, that we’re the best team in the NFL.”

Do you expect to be on top of your game Sunday?

“Without question,” Keller said.

In the summertime, Keller said he expected to sweep the Patriots.

“We have the right people and we have the right plan to beat them, whether it’s here, there, whatever,” Keller said. “As long as we play our type ball, and we do it for four quarters, we’re more than capable of winning both times against them.”

The Jets expect the return of center Nick Mangold will mean that a thundering Ground & Pound is ready to come out of mothballs to help Mark Sanchez be the Sanchise again.

“[Sanchez is] good about letting things go,” Keller said. “Baltimore’s in the past, and he’s leaving it there, and he’s going to have a great game.”

The loss of middle linebacker Jerod Mayo diminishes a Patriots defense still lacking a heavyweight pass rush. Styles make fights, and to a man, the Jets believe they have the style to knock out the Patriots.

Welcome, Wes Welker, to Revis Island.

“You know Rex and [defensive coordinator] Mike [Pettine] are always going to be ready for the Patriots,” DeVito said.

Of course, the daunting image of Belichick burning the midnight oil studying a bitter, season-ending defeat during the lockout would give most teams pause.

Just not the Jets.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

NFL: The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six against the AFC.

NFL: The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The Brewers are 16-0 in Zack Greinke's last 16 home starts.

NHL: The Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven road games.

Who’s not

NFL: The Eagles and Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall.

NFL: The Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.

MLB: The under is 1-5 in the Cardinals' last six road games.

NHL: The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six overall.

Key stat

15 – The Eagles have done very little right this season, but they are tops in the NFL in one category—sacks, with 15. Seven have come courtesy of league-leader Jason Babin. Something will have to give on Sunday when Philly travels to Buffalo to face the prolific 3-1 Bills. A big reason for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s success is a strong offensive line in front of him. The Bills have allowed just three sacks all season long, second fewest in the league.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Ben Roethlisberger is not only Steeler banged up after last week's loss at Houston. Pittsburgh has a serious situation at running back, with Rashard Mendenhall questionable due to a hamstring injury. Mendenhall had been out all week but practice on a limited basis Friday. One backup, Mewelde Moore, is already out with an ankle problem. If Mendenhall can't go, Isaac Redman will get most of the work out of the backfield. The Patriots are going up against a Tennessee defense that is currently eighth in the NFL against the run at 87.8 yards per game.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5, 50)

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (5.5, 52.5)

Notable quotable

“We're getting back to the basics. That's how I would define this week. Getting back to the things we do well. That's how we're going to get it done.” – New York Jets’ running back LaDainian Tomlinson on his team’s mentality heading into a Week 5 showdown against the Patriots. New York is coming off a well-publicized Sunday night loss at Baltimore.

Tips and notes

Oakland Raiders' head coach Hue Jackson on the passing of Al Davis: "Obviously, it's a tremendous loss. I just know coach. He would want us to go out and play like Raiders. What a tremendous person; tremendous man. I owe him so much. This league owes him so much. He's a legend and an icon, and we're going to honor him by playing the way the Raiders should play." They will look to do that on Sunday at Houston, an important AFC clash between the 2-2 Raiders and the 3-1 Texans.

Not surprisingly, there won't be much love lost between the Cardinals and Brewers when the division rivals battle for the National League Championship, and a lot of that obviously has to do with Nyjer Morgan. After a heated regular-season clash between the two teams, Morgan hurled his chewing tobacco at Chris Carpenter and called Albert Pujols "Alberta" in a tweet. In early September, when St. Louis appeared out of it, Morgan offered a grammatically-challenged tweet: "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!! Aaaaahhhh!!!"

As of Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers' starting goalie for Sunday's season opener is still a mystery. Devan Dubnyk and Nikolai Khabibulin will compete for playing time and will likely split starts until one separates himself from the other, just as they did throughout much of last season. Dubnyk (2.71 GAA) played in 35 games last season while Khabibulin (3.40 GAA) appeared in 47 contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 517 contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

13) Ohio State scored with 10:53 left in third quarter to go ahead 27-6 at Nebraska, then completely fell apart, getting outscored 28-0 in final 22:23 of play, losing 34-27 in Lincoln in the Huskers' Big Dozen home opener. Buckeyes completed just six of 18 passes in the game.

12) Its one thing to lose a game, quite another to lose a game and have your whole season screwed up in process; not only did Tennessee lose 20-12 to Georgia, they lost QB Tyler Bray with a broken right (passing) thumb.

10) Texas Tech ran 105 plays for 523 yards, didn't turn the ball over once, and still lost 45-40 at home to a Texas A&M squad that finally won after leading (31-20) at halftime. Very seldom a team snaps the ball 100+ times in one game.

9) Few years ago, Charles Barkley made it clear he wanted Auburn to hire Turner Gill and not Gene Chizik; wonder what he thinks now? Gill is the coach at Kansas; his Jayhawks trailed 56-7 at the half Saturday. Auburn lost at Arkansas, but its clear Chizik is an excellent coach.

8) Illinois is 6-0 for the first time since 1951; they had three TDs of 66+ yards at Indiana Saturday. Illini host the reeling Buckeyes next week.

7) UCLA scored with 3:26 left to nip Washington State 28-25 and even its record at 3-3, quieting speculation about Rick Neuheisel's job status, well at least for one week. Coogs by the way, are much improved this season- they could've been 4-1 had they held on win this game.

6) When Pitt forced Dave Wannstedt out after last season, four of his old assistants signed on to coach at Rutgers; those guys got revenge Saturday when Rutgers beat the Panthers 34-10 in the Garden State.

5) Maryland/Georgia Tech combined to complete only 12 of 45 passes in Tech's 21-16 win; not sure how Tech converted 13 of 20 on 3rd and only scored 21 points, especially with only one turnover.

4) Miami Hurricanes gained 519 yards at Virginia Tech, 236 on ground, 283 in the air, but lost a fun game 38-35 in Blacksburg. Sure it wasn't fun for them, but was fun for me to watch, since I didn't care who won. Miami is getting better though. Al Golden is a good coach.

3) Florida State was minus-5 in turnovers, lost 35-30 at Wake Forest, its third loss in a row. Have felt for long time now that Wake coach Grobe is one of the best in America. He gets a lot out of a little with the Deacons.

3a) Brown improved to 3-1, beating Holy Cross 20-13, thanks to a clutch 99-yard TD drive late in the game; its Ivy League play rest of the year for Brown- they lost their Ivy League opener to Harvard.

2) Moreso in college football than the NFL, you need QB who can run the ball, especially in the red zone. Having a running QB makes your offense so much more dangerous-- you can outrun defenders, unlike in the NFL.

Michigan was 14-17 on 3rd down; Denard Robinson ran for 117 yards and threw for 290 more. Thats what makes a great college quarterback.

1) LSU became the first team I know of to lose a TD to unsportsmanlike penalty caused by taunting. Weird thing is, it was the LSU punter scoring on a fake punt, but he acted out on about the 10-yard line and got flagged and it cost LSU four points they really didn't need in their 41-11 win. It is a safe bet every team in America will see the video this week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Week 5 of the NFL wraps up in the Motor City with the league's most-talked about team this season sitting under the Monday night spotlight. The 4-0 Lions host the 2-2 Bears in an NFC North showdown in front of a national audience as Detroit looks to keep up its momentum from a successful first month of the season.

Jim Schwartz's club grabbed a pair of convincing wins over the Buccaneers and Chiefs to start the season at 2-0, but the next two weeks showed that the Lions were for real. Detroit rallied from a 20-0 deficit at Minnesota to shock the Vikings, 23-20 in overtime, even though the Lions failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites. The Lions followed up that comeback with a tremendous encore performance in Dallas by climbing out of a 27-3 hole to shock the Cowboys, 34-30 as short road underdogs.

The offense, led by Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, has been the power behind Detroit's success through four weeks. However, it was the Lions' defense that kept them unbeaten with a pair of interception returns for touchdowns against Tony Romo and the Cowboys to cut Dallas' lead to 10 points. The rally was finished off by a Stafford-to-Johnson touchdown strike in the final two minutes, the eighth time this season the former top-three picks have hooked up for a score.

Now, the Lions play their second divisional game of the season against a Bears' squad that staved off Carolina, 34-30 last Sunday at Soldier Field. Chicago almost cashed as seven-point favorites, but a late Cam Newton touchdown pass gave Carolina the backdoor cover, dropping the Bears to 1-3 ATS. The Bears haven't outgained any of their four opponents from a yardage standpoint yet, while ranking 20th in the league on the ground (96.3 yards/game). That number improved significantly after Matt Forte rushed for a career-best 205 yards against Carolina, one week after racking up a measly two yards on nine carries in a loss to Green Bay.

The Bears swept the season series from the Lions in 2010 for the third consecutive year, but it didn't come easy. Chicago held off Detroit in the season opener last year, 19-14, as the Lions cashed as 6 ½-point road underdogs. That game received plenty of headlines with the controversial Johnson touchdown that was eventually overturned because he did not "complete the catch." The Lions covered in the second meeting at Ford Field, a 24-20 loss as five-point underdogs in December. Jay Cutler threw a late touchdown pass to give the Bears the lead, as that would be the final loss by Detroit before four straight wins to close out the season.

The Lions are playing their first Monday night game at Ford Field since it opened in 2002, while being featured in this spot for the first time since a 56-21 drubbing at Philadelphia in 2007. In fact, Detroit was destroyed in its previous Monday night home contest at the Silverdome in 2001, 35-0 whipping at the hands of St. Louis as 13 ½-point underdogs.

Chicago has played well on Monday night the last three seasons with a 4-0 SU/ATS record, all coming against division opponents. The Bears knocked off the Packers as home underdogs in Week 3, while dominating the beat-up Vikings on the campus of University of Minnesota last December.

Detroit is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season, while going 7-2 to the 'over' the last nine games at Ford Field since the start of 2010. The Bears have seen the 'under' hit in five of the previous eight road games, while hitting the 'over' in their only away contest this season at New Orleans.

The Lions are listed as a five-point favorite across the board, while the total is set at 47. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Ford Field and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

"There's no delicate way to put this, Sir, we got pummeled." That was a likely line many sports book directors had to tell their bosses both Saturday and Sunday nights after bettors across the state had all the stars aligned perfectly for them making it the perfect storm.

On normal weekends where the sports book usually wins, the sports book director will get a call from either the general manager, CFO, COO, president or owner of a casino; sometimes, it's a combination of all five. They'll call to see how much was won on the day because they know the sports books fluctuating win/loss figure, a number that is virtually impossible to forecast, can be the major difference between making fourth quarter budget or falling short.

On this weekend, most sports book directors didn't wait for the call, they made the call directly to be the bearer of bad news.

It was a gravy train that started where small public money lit the fuse on Thursday night with Oregon covering 24 points and continued through the powder keg of dynamite Sunday night game with the Packers covering six points on the road at Atlanta. In between those two games was a run on favorites that even the hottest hand on the craps table had to admire.

It wasn't just that the favorites went 32-20 against-the-spread in college football over the weekend, or the pro's that went 7-5, it was who the favorites were. Eleven of the top-12 college teams played with 10 of them covering. The only team that failed to cover was No. 11 Texas because they faced No. 3 Oklahoma, who pounded the Longhorns 55-17.

Most of the small money players like to play teams they know, or like, rather than betting the number or value. It makes it more fun to root for teams that are consistently reliable as well as being able to watch them on TV. The top ranked teams always have the most action on them and the favorite is usually the side that is weighted the most.

It's very rare to see all the top favorites come in which is why college football is usually a very consistent win source for the books year after year with not as much fluctuation as the pro's. The pointspread is supposed to even the tables for the book and bettor, but last weekend it was completely one-sided.

Boise State (-21) covering Friday night carrying over two and three-team parlays into Saturday where Clemson (-20) got a fourth-quarter touchdown to cover at Boston College 36-14 and then No. 1 LSU (-14) punished Florida 41-11. Oklahoma State (-29) rolled, as did everyone's favorite 'favorite' Stanford who have yet to be beaten against-the-spread. Arkansas (-10) cruised and Michigan (-7.5) scored 28 unanswered second half points to cover against Northwestern.

If there was one saving grace that helped the helped the sports books Saturday, it was No. 13 Georgia Tech who had covered their previous five game with each of their totals also going OVER. They failed to make it happen this time. Tech won 21-16, failing to cover the 15-points against Maryland and going UNDER the total for the first time.

There was another small bit of good news as well. All season long the sports books have been getting killed on the late national TV games with the favorites. Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay said last week that they have gone 1-12 in the isolated night games coming into this week. On Saturday, there was only one big game to contend with struggling Ohio State playing at Nebraska (-11).

Everyone was down on Ohio State's offense making the Huskers one of the more popular plays of the week with small money on parlays. Sharp money didn't have an opinion on the game, although there was some Buckeyes money when +11 ½ showed up. Ohio State jumped out to a 20-6 halftime lead, easing some sports book directors a little who were already numb from results of the early games. Beating down Nebraska would just make the final losses less.

But then that public tidal wave started again and Nebraska rode the wave to outscore Ohio State 28-7 in the second half, making the score 34-27, much to the delight of sports book crowds everywhere. Had Nebraska scored one more touchdown, it would have been one of the largest scores for the public on one college football Saturday ever with all the parlays multiplying.

After a few heart-pounding final minutes of the game for both the bettors and sports books, the game ended 34-27 with the Buckeyes getting the money.

Now the stage is set for Sunday where each of the pro football games have an extraordinary amount of parlay risk tagged to them from the previous day ready to explode. It was almost an exact repeat of the previous Sunday where the books got hammered. The day started out well with popular teams like the Eagles, Giants and Saints not covering, but the final wave of action in the afternoon games destroyed just about every sports book.

Two late field goals by the Chargers and Patriots gave those two favorites the cover. In the case of the Patriots, the field goal also sent the game OVER the total of 50, which ignited even more parlays. With San Francisco smoking the Buccaneers and that total going OVER, it made the favorite to OVER combo -- the most popular public play weekly -- 6-0 in the afternoon games, a situation no book could overcome no matter how much sharp large money action they got on the other side.

The small money in masses at multiplied parlay odds will always be the most formidable opponent to the sports books, especially on weekends like last week. Most of the sharp money's best days are when the sports book has a great day beating the public.

The Packers seemed like an extremely high road favorite (-6) at Atlanta, but the public didn't care what the spread was. In their minds, Aaron Rodgers can't be stopped no matter how good Atlanta has been at home with Matt Ryan and they were correct as the Packers overcame a 14-0 deficit to win 25-14. The win capped off all kinds of fireworks with several big parlays culminating. Those parlays that are still alive are resting on the Lions Monday night.

Congratulations to the bettors out there who did the damage this week, well done!

If there is any silver lining in the loss for the sports books, it's that a lot of that money will be back for action this week with double and triple the bankroll most of the bettors generally wager with. This should produce at least a 10 to 15% increase in same week handle from last year.

It's funny how seasons change, because last year the small player couldn't catch a break until Week 10 and here we are heading into Week 6 with the players having two unbelievable weekends. It just goes to show that everything cycles around when betting sports no matter how how sharp or good a number is.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

If the Chicago Bears are going to beat the Detroit Lions for a seventh straight time when they teams meet on Monday Night Football, they will need to protect quarterback Jay Cutler and stop wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Both could be tough tasks for the Bears (2-2), who have struggled to protect Cutler and given up lots of passing yards through the first four games of the season.

The Lions (4-0) opened as 6-point favorites according to the Don Best odds screen but have been bet down to -5 in their first MNF game in 10 years. Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN.

Chicago ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense, surrendering 301.5 yards per game through the air. The Bears hope to have safety Chris Harris back in action though after he has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. Harris has vowed to play, practicing for a third straight day on Saturday.

Without Harris, second-year player Major Wright has moved to strong safety with new addition Brandon Meriweather playing at the free safety spot. While Meriweather is a heavy hitter, Wright’s inexperience has shown. The defensive secondary is a huge concern, especially with Detroit’s Johnson leading the league in touchdowns with eight, including two in every game so far.

As many football fans and bettors remember, it was Johnson who scored what looked to be the game-winning touchdown in last year’s season opener with less than 30 seconds remaining at Soldier Field. However, his catch in the end zone was ruled incomplete, and the Lions suffered a difficult 19-14 defeat after losing QB Matthew Stafford in the first half to a shoulder injury.

Detroit has won eight games in a row since falling at home to the Bears 24-20 in the second game between the teams last year but covered the spread in both meetings. In fact, the Lions are 8-0-1 against the spread in their past nine games dating back to last season.

Chicago did a decent job protecting Cutler against Detroit last year, as he was sacked eight times in the two meetings. But Cutler again ranks near the top of all signal callers in the number of times he has been sacked with 15 after leading the league in that category with 52 last season.

The Lions have nine sacks after ranking sixth in the NFL last year with 44. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has two of the nine following 10 as a rookie in 2010 and will likely get some help alongside him with the addition of first-round draft pick Nick Fairley, who broke his foot during training camp but is expected to make his debut.

The duo could cause big problems for Cutler, who is 3-1 lifetime vs. Detroit with nine touchdown passes and one interception. He was knocked out of a 44-7 loss at Ford Field with a leg injury when he was with the Denver Broncos in 2007.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The unbeaten Detroit Lions will be the home team for the first time on Monday Night Football in 10 years when the Chicago Bears visit them to close out Week 5. The Lions (4-0) beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-13 at home on Monday night in Week 17 of last season in a bizarre scenario as the visitors because the game had to be moved after the Metrodome collapsed.

Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN.

Detroit opened as a 6-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 47. Bettors are taking the Bears (2-2) and ‘over’ so far though, as the Lions are now -5 at most sportsbooks with the total rising as high as 48 in some spots.

The roof at Ford Field might explode with a ninth straight Detroit win, especially with the added excitement in the city after the Tigers reached the ALCS for the second time in six years. The Lions have rallied back from deficits of 20 points or more the last two weeks and own the longest active winning streak in the NFL at eight games dating back to last season, but they will be looking to end a six-game series skid against the Bears in this key NFC North matchup.

Chicago is the last team to top Detroit, winning 24-20 on the road in Week 13 of last year. Of course, the more controversial of their two meetings in 2010 was the season opener, when Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson seemingly scored what might have been the game-winning touchdown in the final minute only to see the pass ruled incomplete in the end zone.

Detroit lost quarterback Matthew Stafford in the first half of that game on a sack by Bears defensive end Julius Peppers. Shaun Hill relieved Stafford, and then Drew Stanton started and finished the second meeting.

Stafford has remained healthy and started 2011 strong thanks to Johnson, who has scored two touchdowns in each of the first four games, the first player to ever accomplish that feat to begin a season. He also tied Cris Carter’s league record for consecutive games with two touchdown receptions when he scored the game-winner with 1:39 remaining in a 34-30 victory at Dallas last week.

Chicago has had Jay Cutler under center for the last four meetings, and he threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the second head-to-head battle with Detroit last year following a questionable roughing the passer call on then-rookie Ndamukong Suh, who has vowed to hit the Bears signal caller as much as possible this time around.

Suh could get some help on the defensive line with first-round draft pick Nick Fairley expected to make his debut after breaking his foot in training camp. Fairley won the 2010 Lombardi Award as the nation’s top lineman for NCAA champion Auburn, the same honor Suh won a year earlier.

Cutler has enjoyed a lot of personal success against the Lions during his career though with nine touchdown passes and only one interception. He had his best game in a Chicago uniform in the first meeting last year with 372 passing yards en route to a 19-14 victory.

Bears running back Matt Forte caught seven passes for 151 yards and scored two touchdowns in that game, and he is coming off the best rushing performance of his career with 205 yards in a 34-29 home win over Carolina last week.

Key injuries for the Bears include starting guard Chris Spencer (hand) who is questionable for Monday's contest. Safety Chris Harrs (hamstring) and backup tight end Matt Spaeth (calf) are also listed under questionable status.

Detroit's biggest concern is safety Amare Spievey who is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The Lions on Monday Night Football is no laughing matter. Detroit is undefeated and looking to down its division rival on national TV.

Here’s a peek at what numbers say about the NFC North showdown.

OFFENSE

You might think that this category would be a win for the Lions in a landslide, but that isn’t really the case. The reason Detroit is putting up some many points this season is because of its efficiency in the red zone. Detroit is finding paydirt 60 percent of the time it gets inside the red zone.

Yeah, Calvin Johnson will do that for an offense. The Lions Pro Bowl receiver is Matt Stafford’s favorite target inside the 20 as his eight touchdown catches indicate.

The Lions and Bears both don’t run the ball much but the Bears are much more effective on the ground than their opponents. Chicago averages 4.7 yards per carry compared to Detroit’s 3.0 ypc.

We’ll give a slight advantage to the Lions because of their effectiveness inside the red zone.

Edge: Detroit

DEFENSE

Chicago’s backbone under coach Lovie Smith has always been its defense but the stopper unit isn’t getting a lot of stops these days. Da Bears have allowed 86 points to opponents in their last three games and the Panthers racked up 543 offensive yards at Soldier Field last week.

It’s been a tale of two halves for Detroit’s D the past two weeks. The Lions let the Vikings and Cowboys run wild on them only to turn the table in the second both times. The one thing you can count on with Detroit is its defensive line making a mess of things for the offense on the other side of the ball.

Rookie defensive lineman Nick Fairley is expected to make his pro debut which will only bolster a line that includes Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Chicago’s defense is giving up 6.2 yards per play while Detroit is surrendering 5.2. Of course, as the defending NFC North champs, the Bears’ schedule has been much tougher so far.

We’ll give a small edge to Detroit because of its ability to generate takeaways (2.8 per game compared to Chicago’s 1.8).

Edge: Detroit

SPECIAL TEAMS

Do we really need to break down this category? The Bears’ best scoring play is the punt return because of super speedster Devin Hester. He returned one to the house last week against the Panthers.

And it’s not just Hester who’s doing the damage for Chicago’s special teams. Kicker Robbie Gould is a perfect 8 for 8 on field goal attempts this season.

Edge: Chicago

WORD ON THE STREET

“He's a guy we've got to get touches to. He's a guy we've got to get involved. He can do everything.” – Bears quarterback Jay Cutler talking about teammate and Matt Forte. The running back is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 11.9 yards per reception.

PREDICTION: Lions 23, Bears 20

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

NFL: Detroit is 16-5-2 against the spread in its last 23 games overall.

MLB: Texas has won 14 of its last 16 overall.

NHL: Phoenix has won eight of its last 11 meetings with the Stars in Dallas.

CFL: The under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings between the Roughriders and Eskimos in Edmonton.

Who’s not

NFL: Chicago is 1-5 against the spread in its last six overall.

MLB: Detroit is 2-7 in its last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.

NHL: St. Louis has won just six of its last 26 dates with Calgary.

CFL: Toronto is 2-11 against the spread in its last 13 meetings with Montreal.

Key stat

258 – Montreal Alouettes quarterback Anthony Calvillo needs 258 passing yards Monday against the Toronto Argonauts to become the CFL’s all-time leading passer. Damon Allen currently holds that record with 72,381 passing yards. Calvillo has thrown for 3,963 yards this season already with 28 touchdowns to go against just four interceptions. The Alouettes are set as 12.5-point favorites with the total at 54.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers – Ordonez will miss the rest of the postseason with his broken right ankle. Ordonez had talked about retirement while playing his 15th season this year and he could not overcome ongoing issues with his surgically repaired ankle. The 37-year-old Ordonez batting .309 with 294 career homers and 1,236 RBIs with the Chicago White Sox and Tigers. Sunday's Game 2 of the American League Championship Series was postponed because of rain. It has been rescheduled for Monday.

Game of the day

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5, 47)

Notable quotable

"We're in the playoffs, we're playing the Texas Rangers for the championship — I love it. It's exciting. It's a great opportunity for us to show how tough we are, and we're tough. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. I don't want anybody feeling sorry for us. We'll make do." – Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland about losing Ordonez and Delmon Young to injury.

Notes and tips

The Detroit Lions opened as a 6-point favorite in their big Monday Nighter against the Chicago Bears and are now holding around -5.5 with a 47-point total. As of Sunday evening, about 59 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were backing the Lions with nearly double the over bets to under wagers. Detroit is 13-3-2 against the spread in its last 18 games against NFC foes and nine of the club’s last 11 home games have played over the total.

NHL disciplinarian Brendan Shanahan suspended Minnesota Wild forward Pierre-Marc Bouchard for two games on Sunday following his hit on Columbus Blue Jackets wing Matt Calvert. Bouchard used a high stick which bloodied the mouth of Calvert following a faceoff in Saturday's contest. Calvert lost teeth and needed stitches on his lip, but returned to the contest in the third period. Columbus coach Scott Arniel was upset that Bouchard took a "baseball swing" at Calvert's face and did not receive a major penalty. "It's definitely an intent to injure," Arniel said. "They said it was deflected off our guy's stick and into his face. Our whole bench saw it. Their whole bench saw it." Bouchard will miss Monday's game against the New York Islanders and Tuesday's contest versus the Ottawa Senators.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders won’t have quarterback Darian Durant under center in Monday’s must-win game against the Edmonton Eskimos. Durant sprained his foot on Oct. 1, leaving Ryan Dinwiddie to take the snaps as the Roughriders look to keep their push for the postseason going. Dinwiddie has just one CFL start under his belt and the Roughriders are set as 6-point underdogs at Edmonton.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

-- Last time Florida-Florida State-Miami were all unranked in the college football top 25 was December 6, 1982.

-- Devils got shut out in their season opener Saturday, first time in their history they got blanked on Opening Night..........Ottawa Senators lost their first two games, but scored eight goals, all in the third period.

-- Brewers beat St Louis 9-6, moving to 17-0 at Miller Park this year in games started by Zach Greinke.

-- Winner of Game 1 has won 16 of the last 19 NLCS.

-- Bryce Molder won the PGA Tour event in San Jose; he is 29th first-time winner on Tour since last time Eldrick Woods won a tournament.

-- Nine different Pro Football Hall of Famers had Al Davis introduce them at their induction ceremony in Canton. Quite an honor.

*******************

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) You cannot turn the ball over in the NFL and win; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers Sunday were 0-4, losing by an average of 19 points.

12) Houston outgained the Raiders by 195 yards, but an inspired Oakland team hung on for a 25-20 upset win, picking off a pass in their end zone on the last play of the game. Raiders were playing with heavy hearts after the passing of longtime owner/GM Al Davis.

11) Tim Tebow came off the bench and damn near rallied Denver to a win over the Chargers, who had led 26-10 with 13:35 left. Tebow had one play from the San Diego 30-yard line with 0:01 left, but a pass was broken up, as Norv Turner's team improved to 4-1 with a 29-24 road win.

10) Seattle snapped a 9-game losing streak in the Eastern time zone when they upset the Giants 36-25 at Swamp Stadium, despite turning ball over twice in the Giant red zone in the game's first 21:46. Giants converted once on 12 third down plays and turned ball over five times, (-2) leading to the 20-yard advantage in average field position that Seahawks enjoyed.

9) 49ers are now +10 in turnovers after thrashing the overrated Bucs 48-3. Tampa Bay had been 9-0-2 vs spread in their previous 11 road games, but had a cross country road trip after a rare Monday night appearance.

8) Niners have now gone 27 games without allowing a rusher to gain 100+ yards, the longest active streak in the NFL.

7) Drew Brees has thrown a TD in 32 consecutive games, only Favre (36) and Unitas (47) have had longer streaks.

6) Pittsburgh waxed the Titans 38-17; the shoe Ben Roethlisberger wears on his injured foot is a size larger than the one on his healthy foot, so all the protective gear on the injured foot can fit inside the shoe.

5) Indianapolis led the Chiefs 17-0 with 11:13 left in the second quarter, but lost 28-24; on their first four drives, Kansas City ran 16 plays for 41 yards and two first downs. On their next six drives, Chiefs snapped the ball 46 times for 343 yards, 22 first downs and 28 points.

4) The catch Dwayne Bowe made on the TD pass that cut the Colts' lead to 24-21 was a truly great catch; plus, he was interfered with on the play.

3) Minnesota led the Cardinals 21-0 before the popcorn was done; really, with 6:25 left in first quarter, the Vikings already had TDs on drives of 18-24-25 yards, thanks to an INT, fumble and a 16-yard net punt. Minnesota has led four of five games at the half by 10+ points, but is only 1-4.

2) Teams that scored a defensive TD were 4-1 Sunday; only Denver lost.

1) Now that Cincinnati looks like they've got a keeper in rookie QB Andy Dalton, shouldn't they trade the rights to Carson Palmer and improve the team down the road? Why be spiteful and hurt your own team?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

(Sports Network) - With the NFL's current longest regular-season winning streak and a pair of historic comebacks, the Detroit Lions are no longer toiling in obscurity. The resurgent team will now get a long-awaited opportunity to be in the spotlight when it hosts the Chicago Bears in a high- profile Monday night matchup from Ford Field.

Other than their traditional Thanksgiving Day home games, the Lions haven't appeared in a nationally-televised telecast on a major network since a 35-0 Monday night home loss to St. Louis on Oct. 8, 2001. Of course, Detroit hasn't garnered much success during its absence from the big stage, as the franchise has endured 10 consecutive losing seasons and last made the playoffs in 1999.

This year's Lions appear poised to end both droughts, however. After closing out last season with four straight victories, Detroit has kicked off its 2011 campaign with a 4-0 start and is one of just two remaining unbeaten teams, along with defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay.

The last two wins of the streak, the Lions' longest since a nine-game run from Nov. 7, 1953-Oct. 16, 1954, have come in thrilling and incredible fashion. Detroit overcame a 20-point halftime deficit to record a 26-23 overtime triumph at Minnesota in Week 3, then roared back from a 24-point hole in the third quarter for an improbable 34-31 ousting of Dallas on the road last Sunday.

It marked the first time in NFL history a team has rallied from being down by 20 or more points in back-to-back contests.

"It's definitely something special," said Lions defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch following last week's achievement. "There's not many teams that would have kept believing and kept fighting."

The Lions outscored the Cowboys 17-0 in the fourth quarter, with quarterback Matthew Stafford connecting with prolific wide receiver Calvin Johnson on a pair of touchdown passes during the final period. The final one gave Detroit the lead with 1:39 left to play.

Johnson has now come up with two scoring catches in each of the first four weeks, which ties Cris Carter's NFL record for multiple touchdown grabs in consecutive games.

Off to its best beginning since opening up 6-0 in 1956, Detroit hasn't tasted defeat since a 24-20 loss to the eventual NFC North champion Bears at Ford Field on Dec. 5, 2010.

Chicago's initial stretch of 2011 has been considerably more up-and-down than its opponent this week. The Bears have split their first four outings against a challenging early schedule in which they've taken on three postseason participants (Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay) from last season.

The Bears fell to 1-2 following losses to the high-powered Saints and Packers, but bounced back with a hard-fought 29-24 home verdict over improving Carolina last Sunday. Despite allowing 543 total yards to the upstart Panthers, Chicago prevailed behind a 205-yard rushing output from running back Matt Forte and touchdowns on both defense and special teams, including return dynamo Devin Hester's 69-yard score on a punt runback in the third quarter.

While still in search of their first winning streak of 2011, the Bears do enter Monday's clash having bested the Lions six consecutive times.

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago leads the all-time series with Detroit, which dates back to the 1930 season, by a 93-64-5 count and as previously mentioned, has won the last six bouts between the storied rivals. In addition to their four-point verdict at Ford Field last December, the Bears posted a controversial 19-14 decision over the Lions at Soldier Field in last year's season opener, in which a potential go-ahead touchdown catch by Detroit's Calvin Johnson in the final seconds was overturned on replay. Chicago also put together home-and-home sweeps of Detroit in both 2008 and 2009, with the Lions taking both meetings in 2007 that included a 37-27 victory in the Motor City.

Lovie Smith is 10-4 against the Lions during his tenure as the Bears' head coach, while Detroit's Jim Schwartz has never beaten either Chicago or Smith in four lifetime tries.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

A Chicago offense that was heavily pass-oriented over the first three games went to a more run-heavy approach last week, and the team was rewarded greatly for the change. The Bears ripped off 224 rushing yards -- their highest single-game output since 1998 -- against the Panthers, with Forte (324 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 2 total TD) doing most of the damage in a 25-carry workload. The invaluable running back is also Chicago's leader in catches and receiving yards (310) and tops all NFL players in yards from scrimmage this season, so needless to say he'll be the focus of the Detroit defenders on Monday. Last Sunday's reliance on the running game also benefited oft-battered quarterback Jay Cutler (960 passing yards, 4 INT), who was sacked just once by Carolina after being taken down a troubling 14 times in the three previous tilts. If the suspect front line that's still without rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi (knee) can keep the Lions' stout pass rush at bay, Cutler has proven in the past he can pose problems for this week's foe, having registered a passer rating over 100 in both 2010 meetings and throwing for 372 yards and two scores in Chicago's season-opening win. His primary downfield targets will be speedy wideout Johnny Knox (12 receptions) and the inconsistent Hester (7 receptions), while undrafted rookie Dane Sanzenbacher (10 receptions, 2 TD) has done a solid job filling in for the injured Earl Bennett in the slot.

While the Lions have received more attention for their talented skill players on offense, they've shown the ability to make plays on the other side of the ball as well. Detroit has amassed 11 takeaways over its first four tilts and had three huge ones in last week's comeback against the Cowboys, with linebacker Bobby Carpenter (7 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback Chris Houston (20 tackles, 3 INT, 6 PD) each returning interceptions for touchdowns in the second half and middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch (26 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) also coming up with a late pick that preceded the eventual game-winning drive. Houston has put together a terrific start as the anchor of a secondary that's helped the Lions rank fifth in pass efficiency defense at the moment, though the group won't have strong safety Amari Spievey (16 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) available due to a hamstring injury. Strongside linebacker Justin Durant (21 tackles), one of the team's top run stoppers, is set to return from a concussion that kept him out last week, while highly-regarded rookie tackle Nick Fairley may make a long-anticipated debut on Monday after being sidelined since the preseason with an injured foot. The 2011 first-round choice brings another inside force to an already-formidable pass rush headlined by Vanden Bosch (11 tackles, 3 sacks) and second-year standout Ndamukong Suh (12 tackles, 2 sacks).

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Detroit enters this week's play tied for second in the NFL in scoring (33.8 ppg), in no small part to a lethal aerial attack that's averaged a shade over 300 passing yards per game (7th overall). Having a healthy Stafford (1217 passing yards, 11 TD, 3 INT), who played in just three games a year ago because of shoulder problems, has clearly made a difference as well. The 2009 No. 1 overall pick trails only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers for the league lead in touchdown passes and is hitting on better than 62 percent of his throws, while the freakishly-gifted Johnson (24 receptions, 321 yards, 8 TD) has been virtually unstoppable near the end zone and tough to contain in the other segments of the field as well. The star wide receiver is far from the only weapon at Stafford's disposal, however. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew (22 receptions) has racked up 17 catches over the past two weeks, while steady veteran Nate Burleson (16 receptions) and rookie speedster Titus Young (12 receptions) bring two more quality options to the wideout position. Running back Jahvid Best (190 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 2 total TD) is also an outstanding receiver out of the backfield as well as a dangerous runner in the open field, though the 2010 first-round pick is averaging a lackluster 3.2 yards per rush attempt and the Lions rank a lowly 29th in rushing offense (74.5 ypg).

A rugged defense helped propel Chicago to the NFC Championship Game last season, but unit hasn't displayed its usual high-caliber form for most of this year. The Bears have surrendered the second-most total yards (425.8 ypg) in the league and has been especially porous against the pass, with the struggling secondary shredded for 374 yards by Carolina rookie sensation Cam Newton in last Sunday's win. Chicago also permitted 169 rushing yards to the Panthers, and opponents have averaged an effective 5.1 yards per carry on the club so far this year. Those poor numbers aren't befitting a crew that sports three perennial Pro Bowlers in middle linebacker Brian Urlacher (28 tackles, 2 INT), weakside stalwart Lance Briggs (36 tackles) and pass-rushing end Julius Peppers (9 tackles, 2 sacks). The latter notched a pair of sacks in Chicago's two encounters with the Lions last year, while emerging tackle Henry Melton (8 tackles) has a team-best three on the season and must be accounted for as well.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Quarterback play. Cutler has owned the Lions in the past, and the strong-armed Chicago signal-caller may need to be on top of his game once again considering the problems the Bears have had on defense as of late. When he records a passer rating of 100 or better over his career, his teams are 23-0, and Cutler's reached that mark in all four lifetime meetings with Detroit. Stafford was forced to exit last year's Week 1 clash with Chicago due to injury and couldn't play in the rematch, so his presence alone could be an x- factor on Monday.

Cutler will be hard-pressed to put up gaudy numbers if he's on his back for much of this contest, therefore it's critical for Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz to shun his pass-happy leanings and establish some semblance of a running game. If Forte can churn out chunks of yards like he did last week, Chicago should be in good shape. If not, Detroit's army of talented pass rushers could have target practice against a rickety offensive line.

Defensive big plays. These were instrumental to both of these teams' Week 4 victories, with Detroit's two interception touchdowns triggering its stirring rally against Dallas and the Bears coming out on top over Carolina in part because of a pick-six from nickel back D.J. Moore. Chicago has scored a touchdown on defense in each of its two 2011 wins.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Lions have waited a long time for this night to arrive, and they'll be brimming with confidence as well after stringing together two straight remarkable comebacks to pull out what seemed to be sure losses. Detroit might not have to resort to such dramatic and desperate measures this time around, however, as the Bears are plagued with problems on both an aging defense and an offensive line that's been a turnstile for two seasons now. Though Chicago's been able to find resourceful ways to overcome its deficiencies in the past, doing so against a Detroit squad that's finally reaping the benefits of several years of stockpiling young talent and will be pumped up in front of a rare national stage seems like a difficult assignment.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Lions 30, Bears 20

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

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