Diaries

That time is upon us once again! And even though its early February (and the Winter Olympics is on), lacrosse season is about to get underway. Michigan is set to turn over a new leaf in 2018 with new head coach Kevin Conry and it will be breaking in its brand new facilities down on State Street. It’s looking to put the past behind them and prove they can hang in the Big Ten which is now the best conference in the country.

Let’s take a quick look at the personnel Michigan will be putting on the field in 2018 and the competition it will face.

Roster:

Michigan has had decent talent on campus for a few years now but couldn’t put it together on the field. It’s up to Coach Conry one of the hottest young coaches in the game to make it work.

Attack: the bad news is that Michigan loses its playmaker and all-time points leader Ian King from its most reliable and productive unit. But the good news is that they get to reload a few weapons from that offense. Noseworthy, a Canuck, is only a junior and has already been a significant contributor for Michigan in his first two years and will be the team's best player. He’s very much an old-school crease attackman and is a slick finisher. Rocco Sutherland is Michigan’s returning leader in assists and will be Noseworthy’s set-up man. The third attack spot could be a toss-up between senior Patrick Tracy and a pair of highly touted freshmen.

Midfield: Michigan will need to make big strides in the midfield if they want to improve. They need to take better care of the ball than they did in 2017 and generate more opportunities to take some of the burden and urgency off the attack. Junior Decker Curran can create and score and will be expected to shoulder a lot of the offensive load from the midfield. Avery Myers, Sean McCanna and PJ Bogle will all contribute at midfield as well. Chase Young returns to anchor the defensive midfield which also features budding star JM Priddy at long stick middie. But this unit also needs to see significant improvements if Michigan wants to compete.

Defense: the defense has been abysmal the last few years and a big reason why Conry was brought in. Michigan’s defense was unorganized and plagued by poor (and at times inexplicable) slides and dumb penalties. They were the worst in the country in total team defense in 2017 yielding an average of more than 11 goals a game. They also ranked near the bottom in creating turnovers. It literally can’t get worse, so there will almost certainly be improvement at that end of the field this year. But, Conry is a defensive guru: his teams at Maryland were tough, stingy and smart and routinely ranked among the nation’s best. Luckily, some of the things wrong with Michigan’s defense are an easy fix - mostly it’s just getting guys in the right spot. Junior Nick DeCaprio will anchor this year’s defensive unit; Tommy Heidt will return in goal.

Special Teams: Michigan’s man-down unit was also among the worst in the country last year (ranked 42nd) but that is expected to see major improvements under Conry. Man up-offense actually wasn’t so bad - ranked 17th nationally, but on relatively few opportunities. Face-offs, which have been a major weakness for Michigan the last few years, were also among the worst in the country. If Michigan wants to be elite they need to be great at these positions, especially at face-offs.

Schedule

Last year's 8-6 campaign was nothing to scoff at, although it was the result of some scheduling voodoo by Coach John Paul. There were definitely some smoke and mirrors; the easy schedule belied a program with major structural problems. After winning 8 of their first 9, Michigan stumbled down the stretch losing their last 5, going winless in the conference and in uncompetitive fashion. That was all she wrote for JP. While last season’s record and this year’s roster give Michigan a lot to build on, they’ll have their work cut out for them. The schedule is...tough.

Michigan plays 8 teams that made last year’s NCAA tournament field including the champion and runner-up. They play 5 of the nation’s top 8 teams in this year’s preseason poll. Michigan hasn’t won a Big Ten game in years and has never qualified for the conference’s postseason. Now is as good a time as any, as Michigan hosts this year’s Big Ten tournament on May 3 and 5.

Feb. 10, Cleveland State, Home, 1PM

The Conry Era gets underway at home in the new facilities (today! at 1 PM!) against the Vikings of Cleveland State. Cleveland State is in Year 2 of its program and is coming off a 1-9 inaugural season. They faced Michigan in their first game in program history who handed them their first loss in program history. Cleveland State opened this season with a meh 13-6 defeat to Ohio State.

Prediction: this one should go Michigan’s way and give Conry a nice first W as Michigan’s head coach.

Feb. 13, Bellarmine, Home, 3 PM

Bellarmine is also a relatively new program, having started play in 2004. The Knights have been fairly meh: they’re never terrible, usually managing to win between 4 and 7 games a year and sometimes putting a scare into the likes of Denver or Ohio State. Michigan took care of them last year in a forgettable 13-5 win.

Prediction: Michigan should be too talented and athletic for Bellarmine. They should be 2-0 after this one.

Feb. 17 @ Penn, Franklin Field, Philadelphia, PA, Noon

A rematch of last year’s tilt that gave Michigan its first win over a ranked team. Penn has been very meh in recent years, often starting the season with modest hype. They often play to the level of their competition but never really threaten in the Ivy League. Michigan’s big win was a bit of a disappointment; the Quakers were #10 at the time but then lost three of their next four. Still this will be a test for Michigan. Penn returns a lot of key players from a potent 2017 offense. Michigan will have two games under its belt while it will be the opener for Penn, giving Michigan a slight advantage.

Prediction: Talentwise, Penn and Michigan should be evenly matched. It will be interesting to see how our boys respond, especially against a team that will likely be looking for some getback. It’s the first true test for Coach Conry but I give the edge to the Quakers at home.

Feb. 24 @ Yale, New Haven, CT, Noon

Michigan takes on its second straight Ivy League squad on the road, this time against a stout and talented Yale team. This might not go well for Michigan. Yale is one of the best teams in the country (#5 in the preseason poll) and they field great players at every position. The Elis will be powered by Ben Reeves a large, physical, skilled attackman who is a goal scoring machine (42 G last year). In addition to being a preseason 1st team AA, Reeves is a freaking molecular, cellular and developmental biology major. He’ll be a major test for Michigan’s defense getting used to Conry’s new system.

Prediction: It will be interesting to see how Conry prepares his players to face a superior team. But this one will be a loss for Michigan.

Mar. 3, vs. Siena, Home, Noon

After two tough ones, Michigan gets a cupcake at home before the schedule gets hard again. Despite being in the heart of lacrosse country in upstate New York, Siena has never been able to capitalize on its geographic advantage. The Saints went a respectable 11-6 in 2014 but have slipped since then, winning only three games in 2017. They’re projected to be one of the worst teams in Division 1 again this year.

Fun fact: Michigan has actually played Siena before, back in the club days. We took on Siena’s varsity outfit in 2001 during spring break in Florida and we crushed them.

Prediction: Siena is bad. Michigan should win.

Mar. 9, vs. Air Force, Home, 7 PM

Second straight home game for Michigan, a team that should be hitting its stride as it moves into the latter half of the season. The problem is: Air Force is pretty good. They went 12-6 with a fairly soft schedule last year but weirdly dropped games to Marist and Furman. They were eliminated in the first round of the NCAAs by Denver. Air Force has become a perennial contender to win its conference and has made the tournament three out of the last four years.

Prediction: Air Force should be the better team, but those two curious losses last year make me wonder if Michigan can’t spring the upset trap. Screw it, I’ll take Michigan in a close one.

Mar. 17, vs. Marquette, Home, 3 PM

This is where the schedule gets rough. Marquette, which is also a relatively new program, has been pretty impressive since starting play a few years ago. They’re coached by Joe Amplo, one of the best young coaches in the game who in the offseason was rumored to be in talks for every high-profile job (including Michigan). Marquette is a frequent tournament team now and should be on the hunt to win its 3rd straight Big East title. And they do it mostly without star players.

Prediction: They’ll be tough. Marquette should take this one.

Mar. 21, @ Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, 4 PM

Along with Yale and Maryland this is one of the hard Ls on Michigan’s schedule. ND has turned itself into a perennial Top 5 team and has come agonizingly close to winning a national championship. They’ve beaten the crap out of Michigan the few times they’ve played each other. The Irish always seem to have at least one tiny offensive wizard that runs circles around even the best defenses and this year that role will be played by Rider Garnsey. Their D and goaltending are always strong too.

Prediction: ND, fairly easily. It will be a while before Michigan reaches the same level of sustained success as the Irish. But...To Hell with Notre Dame.

Mar. 24, @ UMBC, Baltimore, MD, 3 PM

Michigan gets a brief respite during its rough stretch before diving into the brutal Big Ten schedule. But UMBC is actually not a bad team. The Retrievers went 6-8 last year and return a tough defense. They’re still breaking in a second year coach and could maybe pull a few upsets in 2018. Michigan beat them 10-7 in a tight one in the Big House last year.

Prediction: I slightly favor Michigan in this one. But it may depend on which team is improving more from last year.

Mar. 31, vs. Maryland, Home, Noon

Forget it. Defending champs. All-Americans everywhere. Physical. Well-coached. The Terps will be good as hell and just as dangerous as last year. The only thing Michigan has going for them in this one is the fact that Conry is fresh from College Park and knows Coach John Tillman’s Terps better than anyone in the country.

Prediction: Maryland.

Apr. 8, vs. Rutgers, Home, Noon **airing on ESPNU**

Rutgers reached #1 last year after starting 8-0 which included wins over Army, Princeton and Brown. But they dropped a head-scratcher to Delaware once they got to #1 and then lost a few crucial B1G games that kept them out of the conference tournament. On Selection Sunday they found themselves sweating it out. The hard-luck Scarlet Knights got snubbed by the tournament committee for the second year in a row (and I don’t know for sure but they must be the only team to ever be ranked #1 and not make the tourney). This year, Rutgers will be strong again; they return 3 of their top 5 points leaders from 2017, including Kieran Mullins who had 8 freaking goals against Michigan last year as a freshman. And they’ll bring an outsider/underdog attitude to each game. Rutgers definitely has something to prove.

Prediction: They kicked Michigan’s ass last year. I expect Michigan to put up a better fight this year, but I give Rutgers the edge.

Apr. 14 @ Ohio State, Columbus, OH, 11 AM

A sleeping giant was awoken in Columbus last year and Michigan’s chief rivals are now among the nation’s best. Ohio State won their first 8 games in 2017 and then shocked Maryland and Hopkins. They handily dismissed Duke in the quarterfinals of the tournament to find themselves in their first Final 4. After edging Towson, they then found themselves on the verge of their first national championship, unfamiliar territory for a solid program that traditionally underperformed. They fell to Maryland in the final, 9-6 but the tourney run was a major step forward for Ohio State lacrosse. I don’t really know what to make of last year (I don’t think they do either) so we’ll see if 2017 proves to be an anomaly and if the Buckeyes revert back to their usual confusing, underachieving selves. Nick Myers is a great young coach, however, and they have athletes all over the field including Canadian attackman Tre Leclair who scored 50(!) goals in 2017.

Prediction: This contest will be played before the Buckeyes’ Spring Game, a tough environment for Michigan. Ohio State should win.

Apr. 21, vs. Hopkins, Home, Noon

Hopkins has underwhelmed the last few years and is not the powerhouse it once was. They are still incredibly talented and capable of beating anybody but they have not played well the past few seasons and that has put Coach Dave Pietramala on the hot seat. They snuck into the tournament with only 8 wins last year and proceeded to get stomped by Duke 19-6 in the first round (and their 2016 bid was even more undeserved). But, Hopkins has All-Americans and top recruits at nearly every position so talent isn’t problem. If they get their act together they can be dangerous. They stillhave Shack Stanwick who can score and Canadian Joel Tinney who is a savvy offensive player. Reminder: Pietramala is buddies with Bellichick, so if you’re looking for another reason to root against Hopkins, that oughta do it.

Prediction: I’ve always had this feeling that Michigan’s first major victory over a blue blood program will come against Hopkins. Conry is a JHU alum and I think he pulls the upset over his alma mater. Maybe Hopkins’ house of cards will finally start to fall apart.

Apr. 28, @ Penn State, State College, PA, 1 PM

Much like the Buckeyes, Penn State finally “arrived” last year and put together a strong season that vaulted the program to elite status. Most fans have been waiting for Penn State to make its presence felt in the lacrosse world for a long time and 2017 was it. Penn State didn’t lose a game until April last year, going 12-2 (they beat Michigan 17-13 in the season finale) but were bounced out of the tournament in a first round upset to Towson. Super Freshman Mac O’Keefe paced the Nittany Lions with an astounding 51 goals last year. He will be one of the best players in the country in 2018. The team’s assist leader Grant Ament will also be back.

Outcome: Penn State lacrosse is fully operational now and they will be tough to beat. Michigan is gonna lose this one.

Michigan will be better than last year, but this won’t be reflected in their record due to their schedule. And it will take time to adjust to a new coach and defensive system. I only see four definite winnable games on the slate this year (Cleve St., Bell, Siena, UMBC) but the opportunity to steal some upsets is certainly there (Penn, AF, Marq, Rutg). And who knows? Maybe the rest of the Big Ten will regress to the mean after an incredible 2017 and it will be Michigan’s turn to take a huge step forward. Go Get ‘Em Conry and GO BLUE!!!

[Ed. A- David DMed me about this piece late last night and I didn't see them until now, so the front-page tardiness is on me. Should still get you ready for tonight's game at LCA, though]

OFFENSE

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

14

5

88%

Second Period

16

6

53%

Third Period

22

7

71%

Overtime

3

2

60%

TOTAL

55

20

67%

Analysis: I’ve never seen such a discrepancy in even strength attempts in a period. MSU did have a long power play early, but Michigan controlled most of the game at even strength. The story of the game was Lethemon making saves and Michigan skaters just not finishing. The Wolverines created chances all night and got pucks to the net from all over the ice, including the House area and low slot. They just could not beat Lethemon. Aside from a handful of games this year, Michigan has generally been able to create looks, but their finishing has consistently been suspect. For the first half of the season, the DMC line carried them, but even that production has dropped,as defenses have been able to prepare for them; Michigan has also drawn higher-quality goaltending. Nothing exemplifies that better than tonight’s game.

[ED: Happy Softball Opening Day! Every year South Bend Wolverine writes these fantastic previews of Michigan's continuing softball dynasty. He put this up before the season started but they've already won two games, the second a no hitter by freshman pitcher Meghan Beaubien. I've added photos and captions. Enjoy the winning! -Seth]

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More great seniors where that came from! [JD Scott]

It seems as though Michigan softball is often at its best when other sports are scuffling. Michigan’s mediocre 2005 football team played in the same year that Michigan softball won a national championship. Softball’s 9-year Big Ten conference championship streak spanned the entire Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke years, covering some Beilein struggles and the late Berenson decline as well. The high point of that run, the 2015 “Year of the Pizza” national runner-up squad, made names like Romero, Lawrence, Wagner, and Susalla household names while Wolverine fans were reeling from the collapse of the Hoke/Brandon fiasco. If this pattern holds, then middling seasons in football, hockey, and arguably basketball as well just might be a good omen for the 2018 softball team.

Whatever the auguries, this is a team resolutely looking towards the future. The conference championship streak is broken, all the biggest stars of 2015 have graduated, and one of the most exciting recruiting classes in program history has arrived in town, ready to get down to business. The past is in the past. With first-pitch just two days away, it’s time for a new generation to write some legends of their own.

Departures

Will it be weird not having Megan Betsa around? You bet your ass it will! [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Michigan bids a fond farewell to a storied senior class. The four players who made up the class of 2017 played on some of the greatest teams in Michigan softball history, including one of my personal all-time, all-sport favorite teams to watch, the 2015 team. These women won an astonishing 202 games as Wolverines. In conference play, they brought home 3 Big Ten Championships and 1 Big Ten Tournament Championship, while in the post-season they won 3 NCAA regionals, made two trips to Oklahoma City for the Women’s College World Series, and finished as National Runners-Up once.

The star of the group was right-handed strike-out artist Megan Betsa. She made 1st Team All-Big Ten 3 times, and 2nd Team All-American thrice as well. Her name won’t be dislodged from the Michigan record books anytime soon, as she finished her career second in team history with 6 no-hitters, third with 102 wins and 1,201 strikeouts, and fourth with 37 shutouts. As a senior, she led the nation in Ks by a country mile, setting down 412 batters on strikes, 52 more than the second-place pitcher. On a team that didn’t have a deep rotation, Betsa was an iron horse, throwing 235.1 innings while maintaining a remarkably high level of play throughout.

Before the last possession of the 1st half of the Northwestern game, when they took a timeout, I started wondering: “When the opposing team can hold the ball for the final shot of the 1st half, is it better to intentionally foul if they’re only in the 1-and-1?” So I decide to look at the math…

__________

Assuming for this analysis that every team scores 1.1 points per possession on average, if you don’t foul, and the other team executes properly in not letting you get a shot afterwards, they’ll get 1.1 points on average.

In the end, you end up net positive almost 0.9 points! To me, that’s well worth someone getting an additional foul (of your choice), especially if you can substitute in a bench warmer before the play when the other coach calls a timeout to setup. You could also use the opposing team’s timeout to setup your offensive possession, which could increase you average PPP for your next possession.

What? Seriously? I mean... we all understand that the surest way to murder your prospects for the NFL is to get "coached" by Jay Paterno, right?

I think we're out, bizarrely. At this point Penn State is a much better option for Michigan fans, as PSU's class outside of Pryor is pretty crappy everywhere except linebacker, especially if this Shaw switch is legit (upon which more later). If there's any school in the country guaranteed to staple Pryor's butt to the bench for two years and then concoct an offensive scheme that minimizes his talents, it's Penn State.

Despite some wavering earlier, Shaw is for sure in. However, now there is panic over McGuffie who has not yet sent in his LOI.

Signing day recap. Rodriguez did a good job in just filling the class with anyone, let alone getting a number of highly rated, potential contributors. This is reflected in how the overall ranking was maintained throughout the coaching transition. There are concerns though that there is only one DL and three DBs.

Rodriguez presser notes. Still waiting on 1 to 3 players: Pryor, McGuffie, and Demens. But the post is updated that Demens LOI is in.

Is there a German word like schadenfreude that means making fun of someone else's future but it actually turns out just fine for them and then you want to forget you ever said anything in the first place? Cause that’s what happens when you write a post about how Michigan State brought in a terrible recruiting class and they’re claiming they’re going to play in the Rose Bowl and isn’t that just ridiculous? No? Ok, let’s move on.

February 8 - Friday

Unverified Voracity Takes Nine Steps, Then Shoots. Joe Tiller is not happy with Rodriguez for violating a “gentlemen’s agreement” about poaching recruits from other Big Ten programs. Brian shreds this idea. Also, FL WR Martavious Odoms still hasn’t signed and could yet join Michigan’s class.

More shredding of the gentlemen’s agreement idea. Almost every coach in the Big Ten has poached players from within the conference.

February 9 - Saturday

#1 ‘M’ hockey is in the midst of a weekend series with #2 Miami. They won the first game. A second win would really strengthen their position for the rest of the season.

The Stupidity of Hope. Boy if that doesn’t sum up the last decade. This very long post deals with Pryor and parses the various rumors and statements from the last few days.

Unverified Voracity Ducks. Lots more about snake oil and refuting arguments about Rodriguez’s dishonorable tactics. Apparently, Tiller was trying to take one of Brady Hoke’s Ball St. commits on the morning of signing day.

What I can vouch for is that Barwis is amazing. His presence is absolutely terrifying, he's so incredibly motivating that even in the brief time I was there I would have done absolutely any drill he made me do as hard as I could. He's a very, very special coach - you want to do exactly as he says because you're so very sure that it'll make you better. During the suicides that we did at the end, he singled me out because I was lagging and screamed at me; I've never willed my body to go faster ever in my life. Awesome.

February 18 - Monday

The basketball team has won three straight, and there is mild excitement for the program. So much so that the court was rushed after a win against a mediocre OSU team.

Another hockey recap. ‘M’ is now up five points on Miami in the CCHA. More importantly:

PWR Breakdown

Hokay. It's like this. By virtue of Michigan's performance to date they have locked up a tournament bid and will be no worse than a two seed no matter what happens from here on out. Michigan could go 0-6 the rest of the way and be a two seed.

With hemming and hawing at an all-time high following Michigan missing a zillion free throws against Minnesota, the same old platitudes about not being able to hit free throws costing you in March started to be bandied about. They made me wonder if Michigan hasn’t already paid a price.

Michigan is currently shooting 63.8% from the free throw line, good for a stinky #342 ranking per Kenpom.com. Historically, Beilein’s Michigan teams have significantly-to-overwhelmingly outperformed D1 average FT%, but we will consider the current D1 average FT% of 71.5% as our “NO LONGER UNACCEPTABLE” number.

I have neither the interest nor the capability to prognosticate how an increase in Michigan’s FT% would translate to how their offense works or how games would have been affected in the big-picture, but I did think it would be interesting to take a look at how end-game FT shooting affected the outcomes in Michigan’s closest games.

I anecdotally decided to look at the last 5 minutes of games, as that is when, in my household, missing the front-end of a 1-and-1 goes from a “C’mon man!” to a war crime. I chose to define close games as games where the winning team has a win% of less than 90% at any point in those last 5 minutes. Hopefully this will give us a peek at when and if not shooting D1 average FT% cost Michigan potential paths to wins when they lost or easier wins when they won.

Tier 1 - No Reasonable Argument FT% would have Changed Anything:

VCU, OSU, vs Purdue, MSU

Not going to go through these 4 games individually, but if it’s here it means changing Michigan’s free throw percentage does not lead to a significant difference in the magnitude or ease of victory or chance at a win, probably because Michigan didn’t take any free throws or they hit the ones they took at a D1 average level already.

@Purdue

Technically this game doesn’t satisfy my standards as Purdue was never less than 90% to win during the last 5 minutes but I counted it anyway. The only free throws taken in the last 5 were when Zavier Simpson had a chance to cut the Purdue lead from 5 to 3 with 19 seconds left and went 0-2. Purdue was already in the double bonus and is an excellent free throw shooting team, so Michigan was almost certainly cooked regardless of the outcome of Simpson's FTs.

UCLA

Matthews missed a front-end and went 1-2 on another 1-and-1 before Eli Brooks hit 2 FTs to send the game to overtime. If Matthews hits 1 more FT, Michigan potentially wins in regulation, but that would have potentially bumped Michigan from 3-5 to 4-5 end-game FTs, and over the 71.5% standard. Simpson and Matthews combined to shoot all 6 Michigan free throws in overtime, and only managed to hit 1 of them. However, neither player went to the line with less than a 6 point lead as Michigan coasted to an easy victory in the extra period.

Tier 3 - Better FT% Plainly Improves End-game Prospects:

LSU

After Moritz Wagner canned a 3 to go up 6 with 3 minutes remaining, Michigan’s only points the rest of the way would come from 2-4 FT shooting, with Eli Brooks and Charles Matthews each splitting a pair. Matthews’s attempts came while down 2 with the shot clock turned off. Had Michigan managed to go 3-4 during this stretch, it would have forced LSU to make a game-winning shot or go to overtime. Instead, Michigan was forced to foul, and Abdur-Rahkman missed a wild attempt on the final play.

Maryland

Michigan shot 4-8 across the last 5 minutes of the game, 2-6 before MAAR nihilistically went 2-2 to win the game in regulation. Bumping Michigan up to 4-6 FTs almost certainly gets them a win in regulation without any low-percentage inbounds plays needing to go off.

Here’s a dude that will never miss ANY clutch FTs!

Minnesota

Michigan shot 2-6 across the last 5 minutes (including 4 misses from Abdur-Rahkman, the FT hero vs Maryland) and the way this one played out, you have to figure any additional makes would have gotten them the win in regulation. Michigan proceeded to shoot 2-5 in the overtime period. 3-5 or better would likely have had them shooting more FTs to maintain a small lead rather than needing MAAR to hit a dramatic layup-and-1 for the win. ...maybe things worked out for the best.

I only observed 3 games this year where improving Michigan’s FT% to D1 average level would have made an undeniable impact on the final possessions, and Michigan managed to go 2-1 in those games regardless. In the game they lost, barring a FT% increase to 100%, the best Michigan could have hoped for was forcing overtime.