Israel and Hamas are finally in the midst of a temporary truce, which may or may not lead to an extended one, depending on the progress of talks in Cairo. Whatever the outcome, it is clear that both sides want to come out of the conflict with some credibility.

Israel’s hardline Prime Minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu,
wants to be seen as having inflicted a serious blow to Hamas, for otherwise, he will go down the same path of political oblivion that one of his predecessors,
Ehud Olmert
, did when he launched the 2006 war to annihilate Hezbollah in Lebanon but failed to achieve his objectives. The Hamas leaders have wanted to survive the war and gain wider popular legitimacy for their movement, as the alternative for them would be political marginalisation.

This means that the conflict has not been simply about safeguarding the security of Israel, which Hamas could never seriously challenge, or about defending Gaza, whose population of 1.8 million has had no protection against Israeli offensives. It has also had a critical political dimension, as both sides have wanted to fight for their political survival once Israel began its offensive.

Netanyahu has said that with or without a ceasefire, he is ready to resume the bombardment of Gaza, regardless of massive civilian casualties and destruction in the Strip. He is confident that regardless of international criticism, the United States and some of its allies, including Australia, will support Israel’s right to defend itself against what is labelled as the terrorist Hamas organisation, despite the fact that the latter won the 2006 Palestinian general elections in a fair and free contest.

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Netanyahu focusing on Israel’s military might

As for Israel’s international isolation, Netanyahu seems to be de-sensitised to it. For him, Israel’s military might and highly destructive firepower is what really counts when it comes to maintaining Israel’s hold on the occupied Palestinian territories. He now wants to make sure that Hamas is so weakened that Gaza becomes a demilitarised zone and therefore subordinate to the needs of his political and Israel’s regional supremacy.

This would also scuttle the recently formed government of national unity between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) – Israel’s “partner in peace" and in nominal control of the West Bank – which Israel has denounced. Further, it would deliver a lesson to Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey and Qatar, which have made a strong stance in support of the Palestinian cause, and for that matter any regional force that may try to help the Palestinians in their right to resist Israeli occupation.

On the other hand, Hamas seeks to win the war by virtue of surviving it. It has demanded the lifting of Israel’s seven-year-long blockade of tiny Gaza, which has reduced its inhabitants to abject poverty, and inhumane conditions of existence, as part of a ceasefire. This runs totally contrary to Netanyahu’s goal.

The tragedy for Hamas and indeed the Gaza population is that they cannot expect any substantial material help from the Arab countries either. The military-cum-politician ruler of Egypt, Abdul Fatah al-Sisi, views Hamas as an extension of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood that he deposed from power through a coup mid-last year, with the promise of extinguishing it. Saudi Arabia and some of its Gulf Co-operation Council partners, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, are at one with the Egyptian ruler on this issue. With the rest of the Arab world embroiled in their own domestic and inter-state troubles and paralysis, Hamas is not only left alone in its fight with Israel, but also faces dislike and even enmity from those Arab countries that should be helpful to it.

The ultimate result of the conflict could be a game-changer for Israel, the Palestinians and the region. Either the cost of the war, in which Israel has also lost more soldiers and incurred more economic damage than it is normally willing to wear, will make Israel recognise that there is no other solution than a political one to its conflict with the Palestinians.

Or, alternatively, if Hamas fails to gain what it needs to remain credible, Israel can be expected to continue to deny the Palestinians what it cherishes for itself – freedom, independence and prosperity – and to maintain its regional supremacy. If the first option materialises, the sacrifices of the people of Gaza may bring some light to all Palestinians. In the case of the second option, the Arab countries may well regret their self-indulgence and paralysis, which have left them directionless for too long in history.

Amin Saikal is director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, and author of
Zone of Crisis: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq
(London: I.B. Tauris, 2014).