by Tom Pelissero, USA TODAY Sports

by Tom Pelissero, USA TODAY Sports

Every NFL team wants a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage through the conference playoffs. But neither has meant much in recent years when it comes to winning the ultimate prize.

The past three Super Bowl champions - the Green Bay Packers in the 2010 season, New York Giants in 2011 and Baltimore Ravens in 2012 - and six of the past eight played on wild-card weekend, winning four games instead of three on the way to the title.

Which of this year's wild-card round winners has the best chance to make it four in a row?

USA TODAY Sports polled personnel executives from six other NFL teams - three each from the NFC and AFC - who ranked the field on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. The executives' top pick was unanimous.

1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

At Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

The skinny:

The defending NFC champions' 14-play, 65-yard drive for the winning field goal against the Green Bay Packers showcased everything scouts fear about them offensively. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman uses unique personnel groups, RB Frank Gore remains an effective grinder behind a solid line, QB Colin Kaepernick is a dual threat and there are more options in the passing game with the return of WR Michael Crabtree, who didn't play in a 10-9 loss to the Panthers on Nov. 10. On defense, OLB Aldon Smith is back in form, too, adding another weapon that must be accounted for on an excellent defense. They have the NFL's longest active winning streak at seven games. They might be the most complete team in the playoff field, and their style of play can travel.

One scout's take:

"To me, (the difference is) San Francisco's defense. And when they have to run the football to control the tempo of the game and their physicality - that combination makes me believe they're built to win in the playoffs. They can play run defense, they can rush the passer and they can run the football and then control the football in four-minute offense. That makes them pretty dangerous."

2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

At Seattle Seahawks, Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET

The skinny:

QB Drew Brees wasn't perfect on a cold night against the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Saints offense converted seven of 13 third downs. RB Mark Ingram led a strong rushing attack as the team averaged 5.1 yards on 36 carries. Meanwhile, a defense that boasts a strong front and creative scheme did a remarkable job bottling up Philadelphia's talented, up-tempo offense. The Saints got stomped 34-7 on Dec.2 in Seattle, though, and haven't been the same team away from the Superdome.

One scout's take:

"New Orleans gets a great boost of confidence getting the victory on the road (at Philadelphia) in a hard-fought game - something they've had a hard time doing - in very difficult elements. I've got to give credit to (defensive coordinator) Rob Ryan, too, because the defense held the Eagles offense in check there to a respectable degree."

3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

At New England Patriots, Saturday, 8:15p.m. ET.

The skinny:

QB Andrew Luck helped drop the Colts into a 28-point hole at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, then rallied them with help from OLB Robert Mathis' pivotal strip-sack and one extremely fortunate bounce at the goal line. Mistakes aside, Luck is a rising star and WR T.Y. Hilton played like one too. Mathis might be the NFL's defensive player of the year. They've won four in a row and were the only division winner to survive wild-card weekend. But they don't run the ball well, have a mediocre offensive line and are beat up in the secondary.

One scout's take:

"Forty-four points! You can score on the Colts. You can move the football on them. (But) they've got a great quarterback - that's always going to give you a chance."

4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

At Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET.

The skinny:

They sneaked into the playoffs with help in Week 17 and have made the most of it, extending their winning streak to five by upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals. QB Philip Rivers' rare pocket instincts are on display, and the young weaponry around him is coming into its own. The defense has improved of late, too. The Chargers beat the top-seeded Broncos in Denver on Dec. 12 - a confidence boost and perhaps a byproduct of coach Mike McCoy's knowledge of his former team.

One scout's take:

"They've had good, quality wins. They're playing with house money, nothing to lose, so they're probably playing loose. I just think sooner or later the rubber may meet the road here in terms of talent. They're overachieving. ... They're maximizing everything they've got."