Vegas Sports Masters

There are so few really good teams this season…that truly special NFL matchups are few and far between. One of those much anticipated rarities will be played Sunday night on NBC when the NFC favorite Green Bay Packers visit Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

It could well be a Super Bowl preview, as both teams are currently undefeated and virtual locks for strong playoff positioning in the postseason brackets. At the very least, it will paint an accurate picture of whether or not these teams have what it takes to be a Super Bowl champion a few months down the road. Green Bay is very likely to represent the NFC in the big game as long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy. Denver will have to get past New England and Tom Brady (as always). A truly fantastic defense might be the deciding factor if those teams square off with survival on the line in January.

Let’s see what JIM HURLEY’S key indicator stats have to say about a game we’ll all be watching…

Won-Lost Records (Strength of Schedule)

Green Bay: 6-0 (#27 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)

Denver: 6-0 (#22 ranked schedule according to Sagarin)

Worth noting that both teams have played pretty friendly schedules. Green Bay did impress when tested vs. Seattle however. Denver’s really not that far from playing a league average slate considering how condensed everything is in the middle of the NFL this year. For now…potential red flags that these teams aren’t as great as they seem. Either could seem more mortal had they played a top 10 schedule.

Yards-Per-Play

Green Bay: 6.1 on offense, 5.3 on defense

Denver: 5.0 on offense, 4.3 on defense

Good stuff here from both. Green Bay is dangerous even when YPP is closer to even for them because Aaron Rodgers knows how to finish…and the defense is prone to give up garbage time YPP in blowouts. So, +0.8 for the Packers (or a team like the Patriots) is championship caliber. Denver’s +0.7 is interesting because it’s coming with a very disappointing offense but a spectacular defense. Whatever you thought of the Seattle Seahawks two years ago…Denver is doing the same thing now. Lose the idea that Manning is hoping to carry his team to the crown. The defense is trying to carry Manning!

Turnover Differential

Green Bay: +6

Denver: +6

Both are getting the best of it, as expected for veteran quarterbacks playing for smart teams. Manning is becoming more mistake-prone as his accuracy and arm strength fade. But, again…the defense has become Seattle and is forcing a lot of opponent errors. Championship numbers from both. No edge head-to-head…unless Manning is forced to play catch up and has to throw too often.

Market Performance

Green Bay: 5-1 ATS

Denver: 4-2 ATS

Another reminder that the market often underestimates elite teams. You probably heard growing up that only IDIOTS bet on the top teams because lines are stacked against “the public.” Well, everyone on the planet knew Green Bay was the favorite to win the NFC this year…and the Packers have covered five of six games. The whole world loves betting on Peyton Manning too. Those bettors are winning at a 67% clip. Stubborn markets can be slow to adjust to greatness. Always been true.

Current Line: Green Bay by 3, total of 45.5

Wow…Denver is the HOME team here…so Green Bay is being priced like they’re significantly better than the Broncos. They’d be favored by more than a TD if this were on the frozen tundra! Do the stats we’ve just studied justify that? Frankly, NO! That number only makes sense if Manning self-destructs while trying to keep up with Rodgers. That could certainly happen. Basically, your pick in this game reflects whether or not you think Manning will implode. If he avoids turnovers, we have a toss-up. It will be very interesting to see Rodgers tested by this great Denver defense. Perhaps his toughest challenge including a Super Bowl this season will be trying to score points at this site against this defense.

Carolina and Cincinnati are both very much in conference championship discussions after great starts. And, how about LSU/Alabama…one of the few true GAMES OF THE YEAR in college football. What a great time to be a football fan and Las Vegas bettor!