Foltynewicz pitched 51.1 innings in the minor leagues in 2019, first over four starts in Gwinnett to begin the season and then again from late June through the end of July. To that point of the season, he was 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9. He made 10 more starts after his final recall from Triple-A and went 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, holding opponents to a .210 average. It was night and day for him, just like his two appearances in the NLDS. He was lights out in Game 2, throwing seven innings of shutout baseball, but could not get out of the first inning in the deciding Game 5 as he had no pitch command and the Cardinals made him pay for it. The second half resurgence saw him nearly double the usage of his slider from the first half of the season while also throwing more two-seamers and de-emphasizing his four-seam fastball. Buy back in, but as an SP4 with SP3 potential. Read Past Outlooks

ANALYSISIn an interview with Foltynewicz, the right-hander indicated the trio has been getting together regularly to play catch and keep their arms loose at a high school near their homes in the Atlanta area, but Tuesday they were joined by Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Charlie Culberson. Each pitcher tossed three simulated innings of about 15 pitches against his teammates, a step up in intensity from the twice-a-week bullpens they've all been throwing. Foltynewicz says his arm currently feels great and estimated he and the other pitchers in the group are 75-80 percent stretched out and would need about two weeks of a second training camp to be ready for the regular season, whenever it might begin.

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.

GB/FB

Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.

Left On Base

The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.

Exit Velocity

The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.

Barrels/BBE

The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

Spin Rate

Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.

Todd Zola continues his breakdown of last year's NFBC Main Event rosters and explains why he thinks Christian Yelich showed up on so few league-winning squads.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Even those who were "one year early" predicting Foltynewicz's breakout had to be impressed with his 2018 campaign, especially in the strikeout department. That said, before thrusting Foltynewicz to near-ace level, note his .251 BABIP was artificially low according to batted-ball and Statcast data. Expect a higher hit rate in 2018 and the corresponding ERA and WHIP correction. There is a chance his 9.1% walk rate could drop a few ticks, and if that happens, it would soften the impact from hit-rate regression. Key to Foltynewicz's success was added velocity across the board, but especially to his slider, making it one of the most effective pitches in the league. He also began throwing his changeup in fastball counts, keeping hitters off balance. Another year removed from 2015 thoracic outlet surgery, health is not currently a concern as Foltynewicz eclipsed 180 frames for the first time. Pursue aggressively, but don't expect a full repeat of 2018.

Just when it seemed like Foltynewicz was headed for a breakout season, he imploded, finishing with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his final nine starts (43.1 innings). He did a better job of limiting the long ball in the second half (five homers allowed) and he added to his strikeout rate after the All-Star break, but Foltynewicz's walk rate jumped from 3.0 BB/9 to 4.1, and he allowed more hard contact. Foltynewicz struggled against lefties overall, especially at home -- lefty batters slashed .344/.421/.492 against him at SunTrust Park -- and he was far worse the second (5.77 ERA) and third-time through the order (6.10 ERA) than he was the first time through (2.73 ERA). There is still appeal here given his fastball velocity and quality of his secondary stuff, but the home park is a big negative and Foltynewicz's chances at wins will be limited if he can't find a way to work deeper into games.

He should be nicknamed "Mike Filthynewicz" with his repertoire: a mid-90s heater, a piercing slider, a hammer curve and an emerging changeup. He's still figuring it all out, but his 2016 was a nice step forward. He set career-bests in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate and HR/9. It's not a great sign when 4.31 ERA is your best ever, but it's still legitimate progress for the one-time top-100 prospect who was starting to look like a bit of a bust, even in the small 105-inning sample he had prior to 2016. He should enter his age-25 season with a firm handle on a rotation spot, eyeing his first full season and hoping to build on his '16 gains. A baseline 9-10 percent swinging strike rate is a good foundation and the raw stuff portends more. Go an extra $1 on ol' Filthynewicz.

Foltynewicz was beaten out for a rotation spot by Eric Stults in spring training and opened the year at Triple-A Gwinnett. The results in his first four starts for Gwinnett were encouraging (2.08 ERA), and the Braves decided to give him a look after punting on Trevor Cahill less than a month into the season. Foltynewicz did a few things well, but his reliance on the fastball was well scouted and hitters took advantage, making hard contact nearly a third of the time and putting the ball in the air more than 43 percent of the time. That led to a 1.8 HR/9 rate and further questions about his viability as a starter. If moved to the bullpen, Foltynewicz could be a valuable back-end arm given the premium velocity, but the Braves may be inclined to give him one last shot at proving himself as a starter. Everything will ultimately depend on Foltynewicz's health; he was diagnosed with blood clots in his arm late in the year and then had to have part of his rib removed.

Foltynewicz, 23, got a taste of the big leagues late last season, throwing 18.2 innings mostly in low-leverage situations out of the bullpen for the Astros. Execs with the team conceded he may not have been ready for that opportunity, however, as he allowed three home runs while compiling a 5.30 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. It's a small sample size, but the hard-throwing right-hander didn't fare much better at Triple-A Oklahoma City. In 21 appearances (18 starts) with the RedHawks, Foltynewicz went 7-7 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 102:52 K:BB ratio over 102.2 innings. Traded to Atlanta in January, Foltynewicz was a key piece in the deal that sent Evan Gattis to Atlanta. Armed with a plus fastball that regularly hits 100 mph, "Folty" will need to show better control of his pitches (4.6 BB/9) to carve out a significant role with the Braves in 2015. A return to Triple-A appears likely, at least to open the season, but he has a very high ceiling if his control improves.

Foltynewicz, the Astros' 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, turned in a fine season for Double-A Corpus Christi after a brief stint with Houston's High-A affiliate. The 22-year-old flamethrower appeared in 23 games (16 starts) for the Hooks and went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA over 103.1 innings. Opposing batters hit a mere .207 against the right-hander, but they also took 52 free passes as Foltynewicz's control problems remained. If he improves his walk rate (4.5 BB/9 in Double-A), Foltynewicz's stock will go up even higher as he emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the minors last season. He will likely make the jump to Triple-A this season, while the possibility of a late-season callup is not out of the question if he performs well there.

The second time through the Sally League was much better for Foltynewicz than the first: he posted a 14-4 record across 27 starts and lowered his ERA by nearly two runs to 3.14. The improvement was enough to earn him the Most Outstanding Pitcher award in the Sally League and the Minor League Pitcher of the Year award for the Houston organization. The former first-round pick has pitched to contact more in recent years, which has resulted in fewer strikeouts, but (at least last year) better outcomes. While the team is still trying him out as a starter, there are those that think the lack of viable secondary pitches may make him best suited for the bullpen down the line. He will likely begin 2013 in Double-A, still working out of the rotation.

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Fans six Rays on Saturday

PAtlanta Braves

March 8, 2020

Foltynewicz tossed 3.2 scoreless innings in Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Rays, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out six.