PROBABILITY OF CRIMINAL RECIDIVISM IN PEOPLE CONNECTED TO THE SOCIAL REINTEGRATION PROCESS IN BOGOTA FROM A COMPLEX PERSPECTIVE

This article contributes to the identification of possible causes of recidivism by demobilized ex-combatants in Bogota, through the estimation of a multinomial logit model with data from the Colombian Reintegration Agency for Armed People and Groups and based on a multiple and complex perspective starting from criminology, economics and sociology of crime and recidivism theories. The observable characteristics in the sample of ex-combatants were the group to which they used to belong, age, gender, time of demobilization, work activities, financing plan and years of schooling among others.

Colombia, now on the verge of signing agreements to definitely seal the demobilization of the FARC-EP armed group, has suffered a constant civil and social armed conflict that has notably harmed the general population for nearly 60 years. This has led the government to take dissuasive measures such as the implementation of a reintegration program based on Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) processes, currently lead by the Colombian Agency for Reintegration of Armed People and Groups (ACR). The program’s main objective is to support the voluntary separation of people from insurgent armed groups by offering them monetary and legal benefits to guarantee their access to conditions in which they can adapt to society. Unfortunately, there have been difficulties in its implementation and development, mainly due to the diversity of the individuals enrolled in the program, and also to the fact that their probability of relapsing into criminal activities is high, considering their social instability.