This blog presents my short-term and intermediate-term outlook on the financial markets and is dedicated to the All Stars of Market Timing - R. N. Elliott, W. D. Gann, Frank Taucher and Chris Cadbury and many others that have influenced my market methodology.

November 29, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: We're looking for important turns in both the bond and stock markets this week - we may have seen a "buying exhaustion" on the SPX on Tuesday as we hit our SPX 2620-2635 target in the 11/29-11/30 turn window. We have a Fibonacci 55-week step out from the 11/8/16 Presidential election in the SPX and that implies the start of a 3-4% correction by 11/29 - we expect global credit spreads to once again be a catalyst for a stock market selloff. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/29/17 (Commentary for Wednesday)Extreme rotation from technology into financials was a dominant theme in today's trading - but the XLF can now be counted as an EW 5-waves up on the daily and weekly charts. Chinese tech stocks were a big part of today's technology selloff which took few prisoners. Tuesday had the feel of a 5th wave blow-off to us in the indices and we finally counted 5-waves up from the 11/15 low in the SPX, NDX and DJIA into our 11/27-11/30 turn window. The SPX touched our 2620-2630 price target zone early and then reversed down - rotation into financials kept this index up compared to the NDX - it will take a break below SPX 2580 to argue that a top is in. Gold failed to bounce at all after the North Korea missile launch and sold off hard early Tuesday - a sell off into the 12/3-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window could set up a long trade. Crude oil tested $59 and then pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction - we're looking for a test of $56 by the Full Moon. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - a symmetry move to 96.75-97.00 is now expected.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX hit our SPX 2620-2630 target in a blow off on Tuesday, but it will take a move below 2580 to argue a short-term top is in. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold tested $1300 on Tuesday but failed to rally on the North Korean missile launch - this was a sign of weakness - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - The SPX tested our 2620-2630 target zone after 5-waves up from 11/15 and then reversed down today - this could have marked a short-term top. We're holding UVXY calls. The NFP jobs report on Friday could be a negative catalyst - the first day of December has negative seasonality.

Gold - Gold failed to break above $1300 on the North Korean missile launch Tuesday - this made the PM complex look weak - we're looking for a potential turn in the 12/3-12/4 Full Moon Timing Window.

Silver – Silver is trying to lead the PM complex down into the 12/3 turn window.

Crude Oil - Crude oil tested $59 late Sunday night and started tracing out an EW a-b-c correction that could test $56 by Monday.

Bonds - Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/27 comes in on 11/30 and we could see an important turn.

Dollar Index – The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction and may be ready for a run to 96.75-97.00 into the December rate hike.

November 28, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: We're looking for important turns in both the bond and stock markets this week - we may have seen a "buying exhaustion" on the SPX on Tuesday as we hit our SPX 2620-2635 target in the 11/29-11/30 turn window. We have a Fibonacci 55-week step out from the 11/8/16 Presidential election in the SPX and that implies the start of a 3-4% correction by 11/29 - we expect global credit spreads to once again be a catalyst for a stock market selloff. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/28/17 (Commentary for Tuesday)Extreme rotation from technology into financials was a dominant theme in today's trading. Today had the feel of a 5th wave blow-off to us and we finally counted 5-waves up from the 11/15 low in the SPX, NDX and DJIA into our 11/27-11/30 turn window - how the market trades on Wednesday will be key to our short-term outlook. The SPX touched our SPX 2620-2630 price target zone - it will take a break below SPX 2580 to argue that a top is in. The Shanghai exchange, Nikkei and DAX all appear to be rolling over here - how we trade into Wednesday will be key. The high-yield bond ETFs (HYG, JNK) consolidated into Tuesday and that could be the catalyst for a decline this week in stocks. Gold failed to bounce at all after the North Korea missile launch and is finding resistance at the $1300 level - a run above $1308.4 would be bullish for a test of $1350. Crude oil tested $59 and then pulled back in an EW a-b-c correction. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - a symmetry move to 96.75-97.00 is now expected.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX hit our SPX 2620-2630 target on Tuesday, but a move below 2580 will argue that a short-term top is in. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold tested $1300 on Tuesday but failed to rally on the North Korean missile launch - this was a sign of weakness - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - The financials led the SPX higher to test our SPX 2620-2630 target zone after 5-waves up from 11/15 - this could mark a short-term top. We think that widening credit spreads could bearishly impact global markets this week. We're holding UVXY calls.

November 27, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: We're looking for important turns in both the bond and stock markets this week. We have a Fibonacci 55-week step out from the 11/8/16 Presidential election in the SPX and that implies the start of a 3-4% correction by 11/30 - we expect global credit spreads to once again be a catalyst for a stock market selloff. The SPX rally into the 11/23-11/24 turn window did not reach out ideal target around SPX 2620-2630, but a move below SPX 2580 will convince us that a correction is underway. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/27/17 (Commentary for Monday)The SPX took out Friday's high on a day where downgrades hit the semiconductors and support for the Tax Reform bill in Washington appears to be wavering. Negative market breadth ruled for most of the session and the IWM appears to be leading the market down - Tuesday's action will be key. The Shanghai exchange, Nikkei and DAX all appear to be rolling over here. The high-yield bond ETFs (HYG, JNK) rolled over today and that could be the catalyst for a decline this week. We have a potential target on the SPX around SPX 2620-2630 but a break below SPX 2580 will argue that a top is in. Gold is at a major decision point and could go either way, but our bias has changed for another run above $1300 before a washout to $1210 in December. Crude oil tested $59 Sunday night but then rolled over during Monday's session - the break down in the XLE pressured the SPX late in the day. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - a symmetry move to 96.75-97.00 is now expected.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2620 on Monday but a move below 2580 will argue that a short-term top is in. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only gave us a 3-wave decline - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

November 26, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: We're looking for important turns in both the bond and stock markets this week. We have a Fibonacci 55-week step out from the 11/8/16 Presidential election in the SPX and that implies the start of a 3-4% correction that could last into January - we expect global credit spreads to once again be a catalyst for a stock market selloff. The SPX rally into the 11/23-11/24 turn window did not reach out ideal target around SPX 2620-2630, but a move below SPX 2580 will convince us that a correction is underway. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/26/17 (Commentary for Sunday)We're looking for key turns in bonds and stocks this week but first we need to complete an EW 5-waves up from 11/15 on the SPX and NDX - we're looking for opening strength in the SPX on Monday. The NYMO (New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) made another higher positive close on Friday's truncated session and this is short-term bullish. The high-yield bond ETFs (HYG, JNK) continued to lead stocks higher on Friday but we expect them to reverse down by Wednesday. We have a potential target on the SPX around SPX 2620-2630 but a break below SPX 2580 will argue that a top is in. Gold is at a major decision point and could go either way, but our bias has changed for another run above $1300 before a washout to $1210 in December. Crude oil is testing $59 on Sunday night - we like COP and XOM on dips. The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - a symmetry move to 96.75-97.00 is now expected.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2620 on Monday but a move below 2580 will argue that a short-term top is in. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only gave us a 3-wave decline - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - We're expecting a rally to SPX 2620 to finish off the rally pattern from 11/15 but a drop below SPX 2580 will turn us bearish. We think that widening credit spreads could bearishly impact global markets this week.

Gold - Gold retraced hard on 11/20 but only in 3-waves - we may see a head fake above $1300 before a washout into the December rate hike.

Silver – Silver also only gave us a 3-wave decline on Monday and we're expecting more rally into Monday.

Crude Oil - Crude oil is testing $59 late Sunday night - we are looking to buy XOM and COP calls on dips.

Bonds - Bonds are close to finishing an EW a-b-c correction on the daily chart - the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 10/27 comes in on 11/30 and we could see an important reversal down.

Dollar Index – The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c correction and may be ready for a run to 96.75-97.00 into the December rate hike.

November 22, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: We're looking for the newly found "animal spirits" of the US economy to make an appearance on Black Friday and this should give the market a boost early Friday. We are looking for a rally into the important 11/23-11/24 turn window - the Friday after Thanksgiving is one of the most bullish days of the year. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/22/17 (Commentary for Wednesday)We're looking for strong Black Friday sales to jolt the market higher on Friday's holiday-shortened session. The NYMO (New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) made another higher positive close - this is BULLISH. The high-yield bond ETFs (HYG, JNK) continued to lead stocks higher. We're looking for a rally to SPX 2620 by Friday and then a potential pullback on Monday. Gold is at a major decision point and could go either way, but our bias has changed for another run above $1300 before a washout to $1210 in December. Crude oil sold off on the inventory number but then rallied into the close - we're holding XOM and COP calls. The USD gave us a 5th-wave down below 93.30 - we should get a bounce by Monday.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2600 going into 11/22-11/24 - we're looking to buy weakness early Wednesday. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only gave us a 3-wave decline - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - We're expecting Black Friday results to be good and that should help us rally on Friday. We're looking for SPX 2620 by 11/24 and that could trigger a bigger correction on Monday.

Gold - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only in 3-waves - we may see a head fake above $1300 before a washout into the December rate hike.

Silver – Silver also only gave us a 3-wave decline on Monday and we're expecting more rally into Friday.

November 21, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: Despite the a stock market at new all-time highs, the latest AAII sentiment survey showed more bears than bulls on the poll last week and the NAAIHM recorded less hedge fund bullishness than before the election - these are very CONTRARIAN BULLISH readings. We plan to buy early weakness on Wednesday and are looking for a rally into the important 11/23-11/24 turn window - the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after are some of the most bullish days of the year. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/21/17 (Commentary for Tuesday)Tuesday was a strong day from the open - the Russell 2000 led the indices higher and the NDX made a new closing high. The NYMO (New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) made another higher positive close - this is BULLISH. The high-yield bond ETFs (HYG, JNK) continued to lead stocks higher. If we get early weakness on Wednesday, we will be a buyer of SPY, QQQ or IWM calls for a run into Friday. Gold is at a major decision point and could go either way, but our bias has changed for another run above $1300 before a washout to $1210. Crude oil pulled back early Tuesday but finished strong in the evening - we're holding XOM and COP calls. The USD is also at a major decision point - we are standing aside this market.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2600 going into 11/22-11/24 - we're looking to buy weakness early Wednesday. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only gave us a 3-wave decline - another run above $1300 is possible before the washout decline we expect into the December rate hike. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - Our bias is to buy SPY calls on weakness early Wednesday. We're looking for SPX 2620 by 11/24 and that may bring about a bigger retracement.

Gold - Gold retraced hard on Monday but only in 3-waves - we may see a head fake above $1300 before a washout into the December rate hike.

November 20, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: The stock market recovery from 11/15 has tracked the recovery in the high-yield bond sector (JNK, HYG). We plan to buy early weakness on Tuesday and are looking for a rally into the important 11/23-11/24 turn window - the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after are some of the most bullish days of the year. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/20/17 (Commentary for Monday)Monday was a quiet day but the DJIA, SPX and NDX have been doing a sideways correction since 11/16. But today, the NYMO (New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) closed in positive territory for the first time in weeks - this is BULLISH. Widening of global credit spreads(junk over sovereign) in the past two weeks drove a global stock market correction - but since 11/15, high-yield bonds (HYG, JNK) have led stocks higher. If we get early weakness on Tuesday, we will be a buyer of SPY and QQQ calls for a run into Friday. After a short squeeze in gold into the New Moon Timing Window on Friday, gold pulled back hard on Monday - we're looking for a final washout into the December rate hike. Crude oil pulled back early but finished strong - we like SLB and COP on dips. The USD looks like it could be starting a rally to 97 by the December rate hike.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2600 going into 11/22-11/24 - we're looking to buy weakness early Tuesday. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold retraced hard on Monday and may be starting a final decline into December. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - Our bias is to buy SPY calls on weakness early Tuesday. We're looking for SPX 2620 by 11/24 and that may bring about a bigger retracement.

Gold - Gold retraced hard on Monday and may have started a washout decline into December.

Silver – We're looking for a move under $16.20 into December.

Crude Oil - Crude oil pulled back early Monday but came on into the close - we like XOM and COP calls on dips.

Bonds - Bonds appear to be correcting 5-waves up on the hourly chart.

Dollar Index – The USD may have started an impulse leg higher into the December rate hike - target 97.

November 19, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: Our bias is for a pullback on Monday that could test the SPX low from last week. However, we are bullish after 11/21 - the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after are some of the most bullish days of the year. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/19/17 (Commentary for Sunday)Friday was a quiet option expiration day, but the market did sell off into the close. The low volume of Thursday's rally does open up the possibility of a decline early Monday. The very modest correction from last week has quickly tempered bullish optimism around the world and this is a healthy thing. Widening of global credit spreads(junk over sovereign) in the past ten days drove a global stock market correction which has reduced bullish sentiment around the globe. For our markets, there is still a chance for a move to SPX 2540 by 11/21 - if this happens, we will be a big buyer of SPY and QQQ calls for a run into Friday. The NYMO ( New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) has been < 0 and took out the October low - but we may have finished a 5-wave decline on 11/15 and are reversing higher. Gold reversed higher in the 11/17 New Moon Timing Window and spiked into the close with a short squeeze. Crude oil also ran higher into the New Moon as tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia increase - we like SLB and COP on dips. The USD looks like it needs to do a 5th wave to undercut the 11/15 low at 93.30.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX could test 2600 going into 11/22-11/24 - we're looking to buy weakness into 11/21. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold reversed sharply higher in Friday's New Moon Timing Window - the prevailing bearish sentiment set the market up for a sharp short squeeze higher. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - The SPX could correct into Monday but we're expecting a reversal higher by 11/21. We're looking for SPX 2620 by 11/24 and that may bring about a bigger retracement.

Gold - Gold reversed higher into the New Moon Timing Window on a short squeeze.

Silver – Watch the SIL for clues about silver's next move.

Crude Oil - Crude oil rallied hard into the New Moon - how we trade on Monday will determine the short-term trend.

November 16, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: The SPX tested last week's high on low volume and may have to pullback to test the open gap from this morning - Minute Wave iv may have ended yesterday, but if today's rally was just a low volume B-Wave test of the high, the SPX may have another leg down. However, we are bullish after 11/21 - the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after are some of the most bullish days of the year. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/16/17 (Commentary for Thursday)After multiple gap-down openings, the SPX gapped up at the open Thursday morning and gave us a big rally day. However, the low volume of today's rally does open up the possibility of a pullback early Friday. Still, the very modest correction from last week has quickly tempered bullish optimism around the world and this is a healthy thing. Widening of global credit spreads(junk over sovereign) in the past ten days have kicked off a global stock market correction which has reduced bullish sentiment around the globe. For our markets, there is still a chance for a move to SPX 2540 by 11/21 - if this happens, we will be a big buyer of SPY and QQQ calls. The NYMO ( New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) has been < 0 and took out the October low - but we may have finished a 5-wave decline on 11/15 and are reversing higher. Gold stocks continue to weaken against gold as we approach the December rate hike - an impulsive decline in gold below the Full Moon low at $1266 will get us short gold. Crude oil undercut the 11/13 low and now targets $54 - we like SLB and COP on dips. The USD looks like it needs to do a 5th wave to undercut the 11/15 low at 93.30.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX made an early high at SPX 2597 on 11/7 before starting a correction that may have ended on 11/15. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold reached our original symmetry target of $1288 before reversing down, but we need to see an impulsive decline below the Full Moon low at $1266 to really get short. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - The SPX gave us a gap-up open Thursday which followed through to a big rally day - the low volume nature of today's rally argues for a pullback early Friday to test today's opening gap. We're looking for SPX 2620 by 11/24.

Gold - We need to see an impulsive decline below $1266 to get short gold itself but we're holding GDX puts.

November 15, 2017

Market Observations for the Week: The market gave us the 4th gap-down open in 5 days, but we still managed to close above SPX 2566 today - there is serious buying under this market. Today's gap-down open was met with a low $TRIN - denoting strong buying pressure. Still, we have a target of 2540 for Minute Wave iv before this correction ends. Divergences in momentum indicators, declining market breadth and rising credit spreads(between junk and Treasury) argue for more correction in time and price for the SPX. Big Picture, though, we believe that the SPX is in an early stage of a blow off that could take us over SPX 3000 and over QQQ 230 by June 2018.

11/15/17 (Commentary for Wednesday)The SPX gave us another gap-down open and then marked a low at SPX 2557 before bouncing back above SPX 2566 by the close. Widening of global credit spreads(junk over sovereign) in the past ten days have kicked off a global stock market correction which has reduced bullish sentiment around the globe. For our markets, taking out SPX 2566 will signal a move to SPX 2540 by 11/21. The NYMO ( New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) has been < 0 and took out the October low - this argues for more decline in the SPX. Gold stocks continue to weaken against gold as we approach the December rate hike - an impulsive decline in gold below the Full Moon low at $1266 will get us short gold. Crude oil undercut the 11/13 low and now targets $54 - we like SLB and COP on dips. The USD bottomed early Wednesday and is rallying hard which is pressuring the PM sector down.

·Big Picture on Stocks (UPDATED) - The SPX made an early high at SPX 2597 on 11/7 before starting a correction that targets 2540 by 11/21. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

·Big Picture on PMs (UPDATED) - Gold reached our original symmetry target of $1288 before reversing down, but we need to see an impulsive decline below the Full Moon low at $1266 to really get short. Overall, we're looking for gold to continue basing into the December FOMC rate hike before reversing strongly higher.

Stocks - We got another gap-down open followed by a comeback rally - there is a lot of buying underneath this market. Our target in this correction is SPX 2540 by 11/21.

Gold - We need to see an impulsive decline below $1266 to get short gold itself but we're holding GDX puts.