Yesterday,
I briefed the Security Council, and it is a great honour for me today
to appear before this Assembly for the second time, to share with you
all a few thoughts about the situation in Syria.

The
Secretary-General has just briefed you on the humanitarian situation
in particular. The numbers he gave illustrate eloquently and also
very sadly the dramatic situation now prevailing in Syria.

On
the ground, however, it is now the security situation that is a major
handicap for the delivery of humanitarian aid. An even greater
handicap is the shortage of funding. As you just heard from
the Secretary-General, the Syria Humanitarian Assistance Response
Plan is only 50 per cent funded and the Regional Response Plan
is only 38 per cent funded.

Mr.
President,

Military
confrontations in Syria have continued, unabated. Indeed,
fighting has expanded geographically to almost all parts of Syria
and intensified very significantly.

Anti-Government
forces have reportedly achieved gains on the ground in several
areas these past few weeks. The areas of territory that they
control are expanding, and at times with strategic value. The
Government, however, remains confident that they will have the
upper hand.

At
the regional level, tension has been high for some time now
along the border between Syria and Turkey. Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon
are equally fearful of the consequences of events in Syria on
their respective countries and people. Palestinian refugees,
who number over 500,000, are also concerned that they not be
dragged into the conflict raging around – and at times inside
– their camps. Hundreds of Palestinian refugees have already
been killed including UNRWA staff.

Developments
in and close to the Israeli-Occupied Golan are also a source of
worry. It seems that the Disengagement Agreement between Syria
and Israel is also being affected. The potential for escalation
affecting both parties and the larger region, unintentionally or
otherwise, cannot be ignored.

In
this connection, Mr. President, the deterioration of the security
situation in Syria is made even more clear, as the Secretary-General
just told you, by events yesterday and today, when UNDOF convoys
carrying soldiers due to rotate in the mission have come under
fire close to Damascus International Airport. Yesterday, four UN
personnel were injured as a result,two
of whom are believed to have sustained serious injuries. EightUN
vehicles were also reportedly damaged in this incident. In other
words, Mr. President, threats to regional peace and stability are
neither abstract nor something in the distant future.

Countries
in the region are already bearing the burden of hundreds of
thousands of refugees and, in many instances, tensions are real and
mounting within parts of their respective societies
between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime.

At
the political level a major development has been the creation
just over two weeks ago, in Doha, Qatar, of the “Coalition of
the Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces”. The event has
been welcomed warmly by all Governments who support the struggle
against President Assad.

The
Coalition has reaffirmed the almost unanimous demand of many
opposition groups that President Bashar Al-Assad and his close
associates must leave power before any political settlement can
be contemplated.

The
Government side, on the other hand, continues to see itself as
the legitimate authority in the country and to claim that it is
facing mostly terrorist groups armed and funded by a vast regional
and international anti-Syria conspiracy.

Mr,
President,

I
recently read in an article that Dr. Kissinger said sometime ago,
and I quote: “A conventional army loses if it does not win. The
guerrilla army wins if it does not lose.” This perceptive
observation is consistent with developments in Arab Spring
countries over these past two years.

Applied
to Syria, 20 months into its present crisis, and taking into
consideration the positions of the parties confronting each other,
Dr. Kissinger’s formula tells us that the Government of Syria
shall not win this confrontation and that the Opposition shall not
lose it. However, it does not tell us WHEN the confrontation will
end and at what price for the people of Syria – and also at what
price for the entire region and for peace and stability in the world.

In
fact, Mr. President, I for one remain convinced that in Syria
there are only the following alternatives:

Either
a political process that leads to the creation of a
new Syria, with a new political dispensation that puts an end to
the present tragedy, satisfies the legitimate aspirations of the
Syrian people to dignity, freedom, democracy, social justice and
equality between all its citizens and preserves the sovereignty
and unity of the country;

Or,
Syria becomes a failed state with all the predictable,
dire consequences for the people of Syria, for the entire region
and for international peace and security.

Naturally,
nobody wishes to see a failed state in Syria. Nobody wants to see the
state and its institutions withering away, lawlessness
spreading, warlordism, banditry, narcotics, arms smuggling and,
worst of all, the ugly face of communal and sectarian strife
take hold of Syria. Therefore, if we really do not want for
Syria the fate I have just described, the only option everyone should
opt for and work for is a negotiated political process.

In
Syria itself, there is no trust between the parties. They do not
even define the problem in the same terms. Of course, ultimately,
they will have to buy into any process. Without a true, sincere
and total national ownership, as you know, Mr. President, the
chances of any plan producing lasting peace will be very poor indeed.

Many
of the countries in the region used to have close relations with
Syria. After the beginning of the crisis, however, the break-up
between Syria and these countries was brutal and total.

Today,
the countries concerned make no secret of their hostility to the
present regime in Damascus and their strong support for
the opposition. Egypt’s attempt to create a contact group with
Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia was a creative idea. It has not –
or not yet – produced the expected results. I have visited the
capitals of all the neighbours and near neighbours of Syria –
and from the discussion I have had with the leaders of these
countries I don’t think it is possible for them to put
together a workable peace plan in the foreseeable future.

We
are left, therefore, with this Organisation, the United Nations, and,
in particular, its Security Council. Difficult as it hasbeen
for the Council to reach a consensus on an implementableroadmap
for Syria, I nevertheless feel that it is here, and only here,that
a credible, implementable process can be put together.

Many,
perhaps most, of the building blocks for a political process to
end the crisis in Syria already exist. They are in the Final
Communiqué of the Action Group for Syria, which met in Geneva
on 30 June 2012 at the initiative of my predecessor, Kofi Annan.

For
the Geneva document to be effective, its substantive parts – together
with additional elements, as necessary – need to be translated
into a Security Council resolution. I know that a first attempt
has failed. But that a first attempt to craft such aresolution
failed does not mean it will be impossible for other attempts to
succeed.

Any
peace process must include, necessarily, a binding agreement on
the cessation of all forms of violence. As I said earlier, there
is no trust between the parties, and for fighting to stop a
strong, well planned observation system must be put in place; such
observation can best be organized through a large,
robust Peacekeeping Force – and, naturally, that cannot be
envisaged without a Security Council Resolution.

Another,
necessary building block is in the process of being realized:
and that is the unity of the opposition. As we indicated earlier,
the agreement in Doha is an important step in the right direction.
The leadership of the new coalition is establishing itself in
Cairo and working to widen and consolidate its internal unity.
I think they are also working to develop what I hope will be
an ambitious, yet realistic and viable political platform.

There
are other building blocks that must be part of the package
needed to start a political process that would have a real chance
of success. In addition to the measures needed to put an end to
violence, other essential and primordial building blocks –
also part of the Geneva document – are the Transitional
Governing Body with full executive powers at the beginning of the
process and the election at the end of the process.

Mr.
President,

This
is a time of historic change in the Middle East. Let us look to
ways to work together, to focus on collective interests, to end
this tragedy and make this instead a time of historic opportunity
for Syria.

I
once again thank you, Mr. President and the members of this
Assembly, for your support and for the opportunity you have given
me, once more, of submitting this brief report to you.