Keep your mind off it…and predictions

We all get up at the ass of morning and wait for the announcement – Oscar nominations. There will be a lot of white-knuckling tonight. But not from Melissa Leo. Love her. When I talked to her on the carpet last night at the Red State premiere, she was like – it’s an honour, but just like an audition, you have to put that away, you have to know there’s more to this than that kind of recognition. Coming from her, I believe it. She’s winning this thing. Best Supporting Actress. The others?

He took his girl Shannon Woodward to the movies last night in Hollywood. Maybe to get his mind off of it. Garfield has an outside shot at a Best Supporting Actor nod. No chance to win, of course not, but a chance to make the five, sure. After Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush, considered to be locks, Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right, Jeremy Renner in The Town, and John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone. If I had to choose, with all due respect, because I do like the young actor, and he does look kinda hot here, I’d pick Hawkes over Garfield.

Teardrop was one of the best characters in film all year.

Anyway, thought I’d give a stab at predicting the nominees for the first time on my blog. As you know, I love to gamble. No fun in safe bets. Tomorrow morning we’ll see how it shakes out. Best PictureThe King’s SpeechThe Social NetworkToy Story 3Winter’s BoneThe Kids Are All RightThe Fighter Another Year*Black SwanTrue GritInception*

*I’m very torn here about Another Year, Inception, and 127 Hours. It was a tough choice. Feels like either way, it’ll be a bad beat. All of these are at minimum full house hands. Best DirectorDavid FincherTom HooperDarren AronofskyDavid O Russell Christopher Nolan

*Yep. I took Nolan over the Coen Brothers who are beloved by the Academy. If I’m at the poker table, I am sweating this raise. Best ActressAnnette BeningNatalie PortmanJennifer LawrenceMichelle WilliamsLesley Manville*

*This is HUGE a gamble. Manville has been nominated for, like, nothing. And Nicole Kidman has been nominated for, like, everything. But it’s so boring picking the same list as everyone else. And I’d rather go all in on an outsider. Best ActorColin FirthJames FrancoJesse EisenbergJeff BridgesRyan Gosling*

*Part of me is really pulling for Robert Duvall over Ryan Gosling who. The experts say it’s Duvall for sure. But Harvey Weinstein has worked SO hard for Blue Valentine. And he can bluff with the best of them.

*Steinfeld should really be in the Best Actress category. Some say she’s splitting her own votes. Like Aces! You have to do it, even against a face card. Also, the Academy likes putting kids in Supporting slot.