Thursday, September 6, 2012

Simply No Contest

If you compare the theatrics of the two conventions, even the most jaded political observer would have to concede that the Democrats actually look like a party that is ready to govern. Even Reagan hatchet man Alex Castellanos conceded on CNN that the GOP race to regain the White House is likely lost:

"You don't have to come back tomorrow. This convention is done. This will be the moment that probably re-elected Barack Obama."

Unlike any other headlining prime-time speaker at either convention, Mr. Clinton was not carried by all the networks; NBC was broadcasting the N.F.L. season-opener game between the Giants and the Cowboys. Even so, according to Twitter’s blog, his speech reached a peak of interest that surpassed Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech last week. The company is promoting the metric T.P.M., or Tweets per minute – Mr. Clinton’s peak: 22,087; Mr. Romney’s: 14,289. Above them both, Michelle Obama from the night before: 28,003.

Let's face it. People don't like Romney very much. Even members of his own party think he's too mushy when it comes to conservative values (and they likely have a point, as Romney has been very mushy on his former liberal values; fool me once, etc). This dislike shows up in the Twitter numbers, a social network conservatives say they dominate. How's that working out, guys?

What's even more interesting is that the Clinton appearance at the DNC took place against the NFL season opener, so NBC didn't even show Clinton's speech. And, of course, Michelle clobbered everyone on the Twitter metric, yesterday, which is hardly surprising.

The Romney campaign and conservative groups have pulled TV ads in Michigan, Romney’s home state, according to the Detroit News.

Nor are the campaign and super PACs running advertising in Pennsylvania, after unleashing a barrage there over the past five months.

Romney has a huge disadvantage in the Electoral College, thus he needs every rust-belt state he can get. To concede these two states means he's in very deep trouble. Sure, it's possible that events could change the electoral map between now and November. But if things remain as they are now, Romney loses by at least 100 electoral votes, the Democrats hold the Senate, and possibly win enough House seats to retake the chamber. The latter is a outside possibility at the moment, but a possibility nonetheless.