Matt Kenseth: He scored his second Daytona 500 win in 2012 and led the most laps (86) last year before the engine on his Toyota blew with 51 laps to go. He warmed up by winning the first of the twin qualifying races Thursday night.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A historically strong runner in restrictor plate races, he hasn’t won the Daytona 500 since 2004. He finished fifth in the first qualifier Thursday. Hendrick Motorsports seems to have solved its engine problems.

Denny Hamlin: After a disastrous 2013, Kenseth’s teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated the past week, He won the second qualifying race to complete a Toyota sweep. He also won last Saturday’s Sprint Unlimited All-Star race.

Jimmie Johnson: The odds are against the defending Daytona 500 and NASCAR champion. This race hasn’t seen a repeat winner since Sterling Marlin in 1994-95 and it has happened only three times in 55 years. Plus, Johnson has struggled this past week. But he’s Jimmie Johnson.

. . . and five that won’t

Austin Dillon: The rookie and pole-sitter is the sentimental favorite because he’s driving the No. 3, which hasn’t been in a Sprint Cup race since Dale Earnhardt’s fatal accident at the finish of the 2001 Daytona 500. But only nine pole winners have won, the last being Dale Jarrett in 2000.

Danica Patrick: She won the Daytona 500 pole as a rookie in 2012 and is at her best on tracks like Daytona where her ability to turn extremely fast laps comes into play. But she gets shuffled back when in traffic. And there will be a lot of traffic.

Jeff Gordon: The four-time NASCAR champion has won three Daytona 500s. But he is now 42 and hasn’t won since 2005. More importantly, in his last four starts at the Daytona International Speedway, Gordon’s average finish is 26.5.

Kyle Busch: Chances are good that he will lead. He might lead a lot a lot of laps. But the smallest of mistakes are costly at Daytona. Busch’s average finish at Daytona is worse than 18th.

Tony Stewart: The owner-driver is returning from serious injuries that cut short his 2013 season. He hasn’t looked at the top of his game . . . yet.