Matt Gurney: Ontario Liberals may be stuck with McGuinty, and vice versa

The Liberals are stuck with McGuinty. And vice versa

Ahead of last fall’s Ontario provincial election, there had been quiet rumours that Premier Dalton McGuinty had had enough. He’d already been leader of the party for 15 years. He had been premier for eight. Think what you will of the man — and many think much — but that’s a long time for anyone.

The election was obviously the perfect opportunity to go. If the Liberals won a majority government, he could govern for a year, maybe two, bring down some tough budgets needed to get the province back on track, then step down and permit an orderly leadership succession. If it was timed right, McGuinty could take a lot of the blame for those initial tough love budgets and, with the province’s books hopefully repaired, the next leader could campaign as a more typical Liberal. And, of course, if the Liberals lost, as was widely expected right up until the moment the campaign began and the Tories amputated their feet with a Gatling gun, McGuinty would resign.

It didn’t quite work out that way. The Liberals fell one seat shy of a majority. Suddenly, McGuinty had no excuse to quit (even a reduced minority might have been enough cover) but also no opportunity to exit. If McGuinty quit tomorrow, there’s nothing preventing the opposition from bringing down his government and throwing the Liberals into chaos as they’re trying to select a new leader.

This political calculus cuts two ways — similar considerations have also probably helped Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak in his job despite discontent within the party. But for McGuinty, it means he’s pretty much stuck. Even if he wants to get out, he can’t. Not unless he’s willing to be completely selfish at the expense of the party he leads. Before he goes, he needs to either win a majority or lose government. But when will that happen?

It could be a while — longer than anyone thought. The Liberal budget squeaked through, after much drama, in 2012, with NDP support. It had been widely assumed that the Liberals would fall in 2013, after coming down with a budget they felt comfortable taking to the voters.

But that may not be the case. The Tories recently helped the Liberals pass their legislated wage freeze for teachers, and there may be more co-operation to come. Not only does this show that the parties can work together, it also complicates any potential campaign. They’d be bashing each other over things they’d just jointly accomplished. The NDP ads saying there was no difference between the Liberals and the PCs would write themselves. Add in lousy Liberal poll numbers and questionable election readiness on behalf of the opposition parties and its plausible that they all might hesitate to rush to the ballot box in 2013.

But not plausible enough for McGuinty to step down. The Liberals being leaderless would completely change the dynamic, throwing all other considerations out the window. Whatever stability the Ontario legislature may have attained right now requires no sudden shocks. Like a leadership race.

There’s also the issue of who would replace McGuinty. Several years ago, there were several high-profile Liberals who seemed natural leaders-in-waiting. But the intervening years have not been kind. George Smitherman left provincial politics to run for mayor of Toronto, and brought huge Ontario Liberal Party institutional support along with him. But he lost to Rob Ford and has dropped off the public’s radar since. Michael Bryant, former attorney general, has been compromised by the bizarre death of Darcy Allan Sheppard. Bryant’s actions in that self-defence scenario were justified, but the Liberals would probably prefer a leader who hasn’t killed someone. At least recently.

Serving Liberals aren’t looking much better. Health Minister Deb Matthews has been wounded by the Ornge scandal. Energy Minister Chris Bentley will (unfairly) be made to wear the relocated power plants debacle. Finance Minister Dwight Duncan is the face of austerity, not just to the public, but within his own party, where there is still a remarkable degree of resistance to accepting the undeniable reality of Ontario’s poor fiscal condition. Perhaps some experienced Liberals, unemployed since the obliteration of the federal party in the 2011 vote, might decide to give provincial politics a whirl. But none are exactly name-brand assets, and the Ontario Liberal Party ain’t the meal ticket it once was.

No, all things considered, McGuinty might be stuck with his party, and they with him, for a while yet to come.