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BUNDESBAHN QUO VADIS?

The author applies himself to the future of public transport services in a free market economy. Upon the answer to this question depends also the future of the German Federal Railway (I). After a review of the railways in Germany since the 1930s (II-IV), the latest efforts to restore the DB to a sound financial state are discussed (V and VI). In conclusion, these are presented on the position as it is now and the prospects for improvement (VII). The basic condition for a change in the economic fortunes of the railways is better capacity utilization. Demand can be stimulated by improving competitiveness and by changing transport distribution policies in their favor. But even railways that are more competitive and assisted by transport policies can hardly any longer be operated at a profit. This is also shown by a calculation on an optimal operating network presented by DB. The main reason is the ease with which users can change to independent transport (works-own vehicles, the private car). The support which could be given to the national railways by way of transport policy is partly financial, partly organizational. Resort must be made to subsidies to the extent to which organizational remedies are dispensed with, if the railways are to continue in existence. The main organizational possibilities of assisting the railways and reducing their need for subsidies are by way of making private business costs out of the national economic costs attributable to the railways' competitors in respect to accident proneness, energy consumption, space used, wear and tear on roads, etc.