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Phase 1 = 10 years of Infiltration and Terror from 613 to 623 (Battle of Badr was in 624). By then, Mohammed had gained total control of Medina by wiping out its Jews, so the first formal battles could begin. This phase is what we now call soft jihad + terrorism

Phase 2 = 1060 years of conventional warfare by armies, from 623 to 1683 (Battle of Vienna)

Phase 3 = 245 years of decline, from 1683 to 1928 (Muslim Brotherhood formed by Hassan al Bana)

Phase 4 begins in 1928 and it is a repeat of the strategy of Phase 1. We are now suffering that same method of infiltration and terror, which Mohammed used unsuccessfully in Mecca then successfully in Medina. He used that method because he wasn't militarily strong, just as Muslims are not militarily strong in Europe. He accomplished his goal (of hijacking the state) very quickly in Phase 1. It is taking longer this time around, because nation states are bigger, stronger entities

The first 3 phases end at clear markers. Phase 1 ends with Mohammed's first battles in 623. The military expansion of Phase 2 is stopped at Vienna in 1683. The decline is reversed by a new strategy beginning with the formation of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1928.

It's OK for adjacent phases to end-start on the same year, e.g. 1683. That's because the battle of vienna occurred on Sept 11, 1683, so both phases need to use that marker year. BTW, Bin Laden picked the date Sept 11 in order to make a statement that the war of the battle lost on Sept 11 1683, was being resumed on Sept 11, 2001.

Phase 1 can overlap the following phases 2 and 3. That is, Muslims will use the 'culpable deniability' strategy of infiltration and terror at the same time as using military warfare or being in military decline.