Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s departure unlikely to end Ukraine turmoil

KIEV — Ukraine’s political turmoil claimed deeply unpopular Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who announced Sunday he is resigning, but the country’s volatility likely won’t end soon.

Yatsenyuk said he would submit his resignation for parliament’s approval Tuesday. Other sources said the formation of a new coalition could be announced at the same time, and deputies might vote Volodymyr Groysman, the current parliament speaker, as the successor.

It’s not clear what will transpire in parliament it’s time to vote. Until now, Yatsenyuk has managed to hold onto his position thanks in part to the backing of MPs associated with some of the country’s richest men, including steel baron Rinat Akhmetov.

The oligarchs may have decided that it’s best to have him to step down, but its unclear what, if any, arrangement they have reached with President Petro Poroshenko.

“I don’t know what’s being discussed. These conversations are taking place in a very small circle,” said Svitlana Zalishchuk, an MP with Porosheko’s parliamentary bloc. “But from what I understand, they have the necessary number of votes, otherwise the prime minister wouldn’t submit his resignation.”

The government that replaces Yatsenyuk may be equally unstable. Reports indicate a new ruling coalition would consist of just two parties — the president’s bloc and Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front — with a number of unaffiliated deputies added to reach a majority 226-vote.

Such a coalition could prove to be highly volatile, some analysts warned, and would require new and intense negotiations for each major vote.

Concerns also persist that by making Groysman the head of government, too much power would be concentrated in the president’s hands.

Others say that from now on Poroshenko would be responsible for the success, or failure, of the government’s actions. And he alone would face any displeasure from Ukrainian voters, if promised reforms failed.

Any prolongation of the crisis could jeopardize billions of dollars in financial support Ukraine needs to stave off a financial crisis. Ukraine’s western backers are increasingly frustrated with the country’s chronic political infighting. IMF officials in particular cannot sign off on any fresh loans to the country until they are satisfied that a pro-reform government is firmly in place.

Western backing appears to be increasingly fragile, following last week’s Dutch referendum vote against the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement that went into force at the beginning of the year.

The positions of Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are particularly weak, and both men want to avoid a complete breakdown of the coalition. That would lead to early parliamentary elections, in which they both would probably suffer electoral losses.

The president in particular received a further political blow last week, when the release of the Panama Papers revealed he had set up an offshore company, which his opponents said he was using to protect his fortune.

Conversely, other players, including Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who has seen a leap in her popularity, are pushing for early elections.

Ukraine’s latest political crisis began in mid-February, when deputies failed to muster enough votes to force out the increasingly unpopular Yatsenyuk through a no-confidence vote.

Since then, the business of government has ground to a standstill, as coalition parties have refused to back Yatsenyuk, while deputies have been unable to agree on a compromise candidate to replace him.

Yatsenyuk seemed resolved in announcing his intention to step down. Still he struck a defiant note.

“The political crisis in the country was created artificially,” he said. “The desire to change one person blinded politicians and paralyzed their political will for real change … The process of changing the government turned into a mindless running in place.”

He also highlighted the stakes involved, citing the conflict against Russian-backed insurgents in the country’s east, which has once again escalated sharply.

“We can’t allow destabilization of executive branch during a war,” he tweeted after announcing that he was going to leave.