Thursday, June 14, 2012

11 comments:

Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow examines "heuristics" that we use for "fast" thinking, when we should be using "slow" rational (but energy consuming) thinking.

One is the heuristic of "representativeness" or stereotyping. Most people's stereotypical conception of AGW is more heat waves and more weather associated with hot climates (droughts, violent thunderstorms, cloudbursting rain of short duration).

Getting that sort of weather will confirm the pre-conception. The finding is bad because a cold winter (even if AGW is partially the cause) will act against acceptance of AGW - unless you can train the public's perceptions better.

Actually, I'm surprised that the "Scientific Research" response is so high. An overwhelming majority cannot articulate the basic theory, even while they believe it. I suspect the numbers have been bumped up by doubter/denialist types who think the crap of the type posted on WUWT counts as "scientific research." The stronger evidence, as Toby points out, is found by stepping outside each day.

it would be nice to add another category that represents the border between the visible and the research -- sea ice, perhaps.

Slightly off topic, but I have one conservative Texan friend on Facebook, and while he's OK a big chunk of his commenters...I wish Eli were around, that's all I can say. Though Eli, like all climate scientists, would be accused of writing secularist, anti-religious polemic instead of real, "empirical" science.

Those glacier comparison photos and time-lapse videos make for good eye candy, and actually I think there's been a good supply of such over the last few years, IOW I'm not surprised by the glacier responses. I suppose the lesson is that people will believe their lying eyes, but not much else.

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Eli Rabett

Eli Rabett, a not quite failed professorial techno-bunny who finally handed in the keys and retired from his wanna be research university. The students continue to be naive but great people and the administrators continue to vary day-to-day between homicidal and delusional without Eli's help. Eli notices from recent political developments that this behavior is not limited to administrators. His colleagues retain their curious inability to see the holes that they dig for themselves. Prof. Rabett is thankful that they, or at least some of them occasionally heeded his pointing out the implications of the various enthusiasms that rattle around the department and school. Ms. Rabett is thankful that Prof. Rabett occasionally heeds her pointing out that he is nuts.