The numbers: Toomey leads Specter 46-43, MoE 3.2. 68% chance Toomey’s ahead now, which of course means about a third of the time Specter’s actually leading. It’s a close race.

Sestak runs behind Specter, though. Toomey is ahead of him 42-36. At 82%, Toomey is far more likely to be ahead of him right now. Though, of course, the Sestak/Toomey race has double the undecideds of the Specter/Toomey race, and that would likely change if Sestak were to upset Specter in the primary.

But for now it appears that Specter and Toomey are going to have a race as hotly contested as their primary six years ago.