Cardiff City and Sunderland are almost certainly consigned to relegation, with Felix Magath's Fulham also likely to drop into the Championship.

Ahead of their trip to Craven Cottage, Norwich City are in grave danger under novice boss Neil Adams , but our model - taken by converting the average odds of each side being relegated - reckons that the Canaries are likely to be safe, despite a nightmare run of fixtures.

As expected, it's Welsh club Cardiff, currently sitting 19th under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who are in the biggest trouble.

The Bluebirds head to Southampton on Saturday afternoon, with just five matches left.

Six points away from safety, and with a minus 35 goal difference, the team who have won just six matches all season have no momentum after three defeats in their last four matches, most recently in the 3-0 home loss against Crystal Palace .

Our model reckons they've an 85% chance of exiting the top division just 12 months after securing top-flight football.

Sunderland's situation is equally as troubling.

Following a massive turnover of players last summer under Paolo Di Canio, the Black Cats endured a miserable start to the season and have failed to ever really recover.

Gus Poyet may have led them to a League Cup final, but they've picked up just 25 points from 31 games. A lack of goals - most notably from £8.8million striker Jozy Altidore - has been their achilles heel and although they do have games in hand, can you see them winning any?

Throw in that they've won a league-low of just three home matches and Poyet's side look doomed.

According to our model, they've a 78.6% chance of following Cardiff through the Premier League's trap door.

And the most likely side to join them ahead of their basement battle on Saturday afternoon is Fulham.

The west London club - who have dispensed with both Martin Jol and Rene Meulensteen this season - currently sit 18th, but have won two of their last four matches, including their last match at Aston Villa, to give them hope.

The Cottagers are five points behind 17th place Norwich, ahead of their meeting today, and as such have a 66.5% chance of ending the campaign in the bottom three.

(Photo: Jamie McDonald)

Those odds will no doubt come down if they can claim all three points against the Canaries however, particularly given the Norfolk sides final four fixtures.

Having sacked Chris Hughton last weekend in a bid to stave off relegation, Neil Adams has been handed a baptism of fire: following Fulham (a), they meet Liverpool (h), Manchester United (a), Chelsea (a) and Arsenal (h), meaning they simply must avoid defeat against Felix Magath's men.

We make that Norwich have a 43% chance of dropping down to the second tier - a figure that could have substantially risen come full-time at Craven Cottage.

Of the other sides who still aren't safe, West Bromwich Albion are the least secure, but last week's 1-0 win at Norwich means they've only a 10.4% chance of dropping, while Crystal Palace - doomed under Ian Holloway but rejuvenated under Tony Pulis - have just a 6.5% chance of being relegated.

Swansea City, Aston Villa, Hull City and West Ham United all have less than a 5% chance of falling into the 2014-15 Championship.