Iain Martin is a political commentator, and a former editor of The Scotsman and former deputy editor of The Sunday Telegraph. He is the author of Making It Happen: Fred Goodwin, RBS and the men who blew up the British economy, published by Simon & Schuster.. As well as this blog, he writes a column for The Sunday Telegraph. You can read more about Iain by visiting his website

Policy, electioneering and spin: what this Cabinet reshuffle was actually about

When you next hear leading politicians or their advisers complain that they would never lie and that journalists are far too sceptical, remember what happens in the run-up to a major retirement or a reshuffle. Like many hacks, I had heard the rumours that William Hague would stand down at the next election and move aside as Foreign Secretary this summer. Yet the assurance given to anyone who asked was always that he was planning nothing of the sort when it is now obvious he was. Result? Lots of people suspected the truth but the story was not written.

What usually happens next in these situations is that when the politician or adviser is asked over a drink why they denied the truth they say they had to. So you obscured the truth? Yes! Of course! If I had admitted the truth you would have printed it.

What – other than providing further proof that politicians and their aides are economical with the truth sometimes – does this bizarre reshuffle mean on policy and the positioning of the government as it heads for the election in May?

I'm not going to deal with every move, such as Patsy Jacket being fast tracked into the department for departments. I also hear that Hugh Etonian (under secretary at defence) has bitten the bullet and will move to the backbenches via lunch at Boodle's. But on the biggest moves here's my take.

Foreign Office: Say what you like about Hague, but he is a political big beast (as well the funniest orator of his generation). His Eurosceptic replacement Philip Hammond will – how can I phrase this politely? – have his work cut out not to look like a boring stooge of Number 10. The policy implications are significant though. This, along with the appointment of Lord Hill discussed below, is about Cameron getting ready for the renegotiation with the EU, a subject in which Hague (knowing he wasn't going to be around) has taken too little interest. Hammond is tough, and indeed he has been appointed to be much tougher with the pro-EU elements in the FCO machinery and to start the process of working out what a renegotiated settlement actually looks like. It is incredible that the UK government has got this far down the road, with the largest party in government committed to an In-Out referendum, without anyone involved being able to describe in simple sentences which powers they want back and how.

Education: Earlier this year I wrote that Gove should be moved sideways, on the basis that the reforms are finished in this parliament and a very gifted man should be redeployed. It also seems that otherwise sensible people are driven demented by Gove's determination to ensure that the poor get as good a chance of a high-quality education as the rich or the affluent parts of the middle, to the extent that they are now blind to reason. Still, this demotion – to chief whip – is a stinker of an appointment. I predict that Gove will be out there on TV and radio later today saying that he thinks it is a tremendous idea, and perhaps even that he requested it. Hmmmm … I refer you to paragraphs one and two above. The truth is that the man has impeccable manners and has always been vulnerable to bullying by his friend Cameron and, to a lesser extent, Osborne. With Cameron, despite the camaraderie, it has long been an almost borderline abusive relationship, in which the brighter, geekier boy is ill-used but puts up with it even though his other friends wish he would give the bigger boys a punch on the nose. Gove's recent troubles with the Home Secretary drove Number 10 nuts, as George Parker at the FT revealed. Now, a brilliant reforming education secretary is replaced by Nicky Morgan. In theory, she is there to calm it all down, to shed the ideological baggage and to promote the government's reforms to sceptical teachers and parents, although the cross-departmental role given to the fiery moderniser Nick Boles suggests that it will not all be peace and goodwill. In practice, I wonder if Morgan may be more open to ideas such as the vocational University Technical Colleges (started by Lord Baker) which never convinced Gove, whose focus was always overwhelmingly academic.

Defence: The elevation of Michael Fallon caps a Lazarus-style revival. Here is a new cabinet minister who thought he might be finished when he failed to win the race to become chairman of the Treasury Select Committee back in 2010. Osborne and Cameron were pleased he lost that contest with Andrew Tyrie, and they duly set about deploying him as their main fixer who is also good on the media. At Defence he will be tasked with restoring morale – not high after a dose of Philip Hammond – and continuing to bear down on costs while trying to work out how to build a more flexible capability for the UK in a world in which Isis is on the rise and the threat is mutating. Good luck with that one.

Environment: Losing Owen Paterson at Defra was a really daft mistake. Paterson understood his brief, declared war on badgers and dared to ask awkward questions about Europe and much else besides in front of Cameron. It is the latter trait that best explains his firing, I suspect. He is replaced by the talented Liz Truss, who again will have her work cut out, this time to convince country types that she is on their side and not a metropolitan import. Again, the mission will be to not cause too much of a fuss. But Truss is not someone likely to settle for a quiet life. She cannot see a policy problem without launching into a proposed reform while denouncing her opponents. Expect more fireworks at Environment.

EU Commissioner: Hague's departure aside, the choice of Lord Hill as Cameron's pick for EU Commissioner is the most significant move of the lot. There has been much sniffing about this one. Lord Who? Isn't he the chap who tried to resign in a previous reshuffle but Cameron didn't notice? No, the resignation story began as a joke, when he tried to comfort a colleague who had been fired. The reality is that Jonathan Hill is a very effective, experienced and unflashy operator. His years at the heart of the Major operation in Number 10 made him battle-hardened. Often the best training can be gained in dysfunctional operations or institutions, where the studious person can learn a great deal by observing what not to do. Hill then built and sold a business and after 2010 he was a success at Education, where he led the acceleration of the Academies Programme to such an extent that a future government will find it very difficult, or impossible, to reverse the reforms. Hill then moved to become Leader of the Lords. Lacking any interest in publicity or profile, he flies under the radar of much of the media. He'll set about preparing the ground for EU renegotiation diligently, in concert with Hammond at the FCO and Number 10. A very smart appointment.

The overwhelming impression, however, is that aside from the moves on the EU, this is a reshuffle largely about spin and the next election. The message that Number 10 is attempting to send it that there is life in the Tory party, that more women are coming to the fore and that it is all a bit whizzier. Some of the more excitable people who have just been promoted in the lower ranks will, no doubt, as it always the way, enter office full of beans and determined to shake things up. The civil service knows what to do with these types. Within a year the pushiest ministers will be out of office and publishing papers at thinks tanks such as the Institute for Government on reforming the civil service and on how awful it is in there because officials stood in the way of their brilliance. The sensible appointees will get on with it, try to do more good than harm and learn.

In practice, the new cabinet ministers will have little time before the election to make much of an impact, unless they work overtime to get attention. The Tory Party conference season will, in effect, be all about Dave. After that there are only about six months left of this Parliament and then it is time for the formal election campaign, when the rest of us get a say.