Home price appreciation flame begins to weaken

Reports show a price moderation trend in the making

Home data reports from both CoreLogic (CLGX) and Clear Capital released Tuesday project continued home price growth, despite the recent increase in mortgage rates.

According to the CoreLogic report, home prices throughout the country rose 12.4% year-over-year in July, marking the 17th consecutive month of annual growth in home prices. Clear Capital’s report posted a 10.2% increase in home prices year-over-year; however, this report was for August, not July.

Nonetheless, both reports point toward strong home price appreciation. According to Clear Capital, the last time double-digit yearly price growth was reported was mid-2006, the height of the bubble.

On a monthly basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 1.8% in July, CoreLogic reported. In its home price index, CoreLogic analysts predict that home prices will rise by 12.3% year-over-year in August, with a 0.4% monthly increase — implying a slowing in price gains.

"Home prices continued to surge in July,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Looking ahead to the second half of the year, price growth is expected to slow as seasonal demand wanes and higher mortgage rates have a marginal impact on home purchase demand."

Clear Capital’s August report claimed the low-tier price segment of the housing market posted a quarterly gain of 2.0%, the lowest since April 2012. This indicates the sector that kickstarted the recovery is already starting to see moderation in its prices.

"Considering the low tier price segment of the housing market led the recovery, the cooling in this segment will likely transfer through to the broader housing market," said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

"And cyclically, we are heading out of the busy buying season and into the slower fall and winter months. That’s not to say the recovery is slated to stall, rather growth patterns are likely to return to more historical rates of growth, between 4.0% to 5.0%, rather than align with bubble-like growth," he added.

This month inHousingWire magazine

While other state and federal regulatory bodies overlap in their regulation of the mortgage industry, the very particular consumer focus of the CFPB is not duplicated by any other body. Will deregulation mean a return to the Wild West lending atmosphere that led to the financial crisis? What happens next? We asked John Socknat, partner at Ballard Spahr, to weigh in on what mortgage lenders and servicers can expect from a Trump administration.

Feature

Amid the potential new direction from the White House, Congress and regulators, leadership in our industry is more important than ever. Which is why HousingWire is proud to present the 40 winners of our 2016 Vanguard award. These leaders from all segments of the mortgage ecosphere demonstrate that our industry is more than capable of meeting the challenges that lie ahead.

Commentary

The marketplace is full of hard and private money lenders — it will come down to who can best assist investors in completing their goals, whether that be by providing quicker close times, or with more accurate valuations. With how many options there are for borrowers, lenders will need to start competing for marketshare as borrowers shop their situations to multiple lenders, leveraging the offers against each other. This process will force lenders to update their guidelines, or be forced out of the market.