Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Social Mood -- Wax On, Wax Off

Europe was down across the board early this morning. Now its major markets are up. S&P futures have reversed sharply from their overnight lows and have formed an impulse wave higher. It is not certain if it will hold, however, as there remains ample resistance in the 1874-1878 area.

How do I know this? Ha, because my trading computer is back, and it's better better than ever. Seriously. It feels like a brand new computer, and I'm very grateful.

Yesterday's lows got a little too close to Monday's 1866.77 lows, so it's quite possible a bounce could fizzle and these lows get broken. The far more important level is 1850.61, which if broken would put immediate pressure on 1814.36 and mean that the fractal idea to 1760-1780 is game (chart not updated).

Elsewhere, mixed social mood is going strong in the art world. Bloomberg reported that Christie’s sold $285.9 million of Impressionist and modern art in New York yesterday, 80 percent more than a year ago.

Here's the catch: it was only the second-highest tally in the category since May 2008. And while sales were strong, a prominent NY-based art dealer noted that "the energy was a bit off."

This echoes the current IPO market were Alibaba is quickly trying to sell shares to the public before the mood wanes. Reuters noted that 80 percent of the company's revenue comes "from prepaid phone and game cards as well as lottery tickets, home furniture and baby products."

"Lottery tickets" jumps out at me. Isn't that what the IPO market is all about lately?

Reuters also quoted a Forrester research analyst who noted that Alibaba has been "losing market share year over year."

Selling phone cards and lotto tickets online is not exactly a business model with a barrier to entry. Any kind of IPO flop with a juggernaut of this size would signal that the animal spirits are on the wane.

"Smart, clear, level headed thinking . . . It calms me to read an unbiased assessment of this market by the numbers."

"Great job and key insight here! Thx!"

"Still check your blog just about every day, great reading. Love It!!!!!!"

"You were born for writing and trading. I love your blog."

Blog Archive

Marz Bonfire is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. The author and publisher may or may not hold positions in the financial instruments discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading stocks, futures, options, currencies, or any other product discussed here. The author, the publisher, and any and all affiliates assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results.