The Five Smartest—And Dumbest—NFL Franchises

The Smartest

1. Indianapolis Colts

In 1998 the Colts drafted Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, who were equally touted at the time. That one decision represents the biggest gap—maybe in league history—between getting it right and getting it wrong. Ever since, GM Bill Polian has consistently put enough manpower around Manning to win. And even with some of the highest-paid players at their respective positions (DE Dwight Freeney, WR Reggie Wayne, S Bob Sanders, TE Dallas Clark), Polian has squeezed maximum value out of second- and third-tier talent who dot the rest of the lineup.

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The Smartest

2. New England Patriots

Like the Colts, the Patriots found a franchise QB and built around him. Unlike the Colts, they did it from the bottom of the draft, not the top. The Patriots also have shown a knack for knowing the right players to bring to town free agency—and the right time to show them the door. They've created an environment in which players hold each other accountable and happily take a lot less money than they could get elsewhere. The Patriots' smarts will be tested soon, with Tom Brady's contract expiring. Amid signs that he has outgrown a team-first mentality, the next smart move could be dangling him in a trade for a Herschel Walker-style haul of draft picks.

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The Smartest

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

For decades, the Rooney family has run the franchise with a steady hand. They haven't fired a head coach since 1968, because they haven't needed to. They've ignored the win-now frenzy that has prompted most franchises to ditch 5-year plans for 3-year plans, and 3-year plans for immediate job security. And they've established a perennial contender based on a 3-4 zone-blitzing defense so potent that when Mike Tomlin, a 4-3 expert, became the head coach in 2007, he dared not tinker with it. Even the suspension of Ben Roethlisberger could serve the team well by forcing the offense back to its run-first roots.

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The Smartest

4. Baltimore Ravens

Smart franchises hire the right coaches. For nine years, the Ravens employed Brian Billick, an offensive genius who won a Super Bowl with a defense he didn't design, build, or run. In 2008, after too many years of mediocrity, the Ravens hired John Harbaugh, even though he'd never even been a coordinator before. But Harbaugh has pushed the right buttons, and the front office finally has collected some Pro Bowlers on offense (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin) to go with a defense that still dominates even during the twilight of Ray Lewis' career.

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The Smartest

5. Atlanta Falcons

Sometimes a crisis is an opportunity: three years ago, the Falcons were humiliated by the Michael Vick dog-fighting scandal and a disloyal coach who abandoned the team 13 games into his first season. Owner Arthur Blank's frantic search process miraculously yielded two gems: GM Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith. Then on draft day 2008, Blank overruled his new generals, insisting that the Falcons use the #3 pick on QB Matt Ryan rather than defensive stud Glenn Dorsey. Wise move. Ryan has given the Falcons security at the game's most essential position, and Dimitroff has shrewdly built around him: inking WR Roddy White to a long-term deal last year, trading for TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Michael Turner.

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The Dumbest

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In early 2009, Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer abruptly fired coach Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen, a Super Bowl-winning combo, and replaced them with inexperienced and unproven risks. Now the franchise seems to spend as much time denying what many regard as obvious -- that the Bucs either can't or won't spend money -- as they do trying to win games. Either way, they're not doing much of either.

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The Dumbest

2. Arizona Cardinals

Dumb franchises sometimes get lucky. When the Cards' QB of the future wasn't developing fast enough, they had on the bench a future Hall of Famer who still had some magic left. Now that Kurt Warner has retired, luck left with him and stupidity reigns. The QBs (Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson) inspire zero confidence, and the team has refused to invest in many key players. Until another Kurt Warner falls into their laps, even a quality coach like Ken Whisenhunt won't be enough to continue the team's recent good fortune.

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The Dumbest

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Like every team in the NFL, the Bengals make a lot of money. Unlike most of them, they spend very little. That's why they keep offering safe harbor to players with off-field issues (Pacman Jones, Matt Jones, Cedric Benson, Frostee Rucker, Bernard Scott, the late Chris Henry)—not because the Bengals want to change the world, but because those players can be gotten cheaply. No wonder the team always seems to underachieve. On the other hand, chronic frugality isn't always foolish: in 2006, Mike Brown was one of only two owners who thought the current labor deal gave the players too much money. Now the other 30 agree with him.

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The Dumbest

4. Oakland Raiders

For decades the Raiders relished being the NFL's bad-boy franchise. But lately, it's been more Mr. Magoo than Mr. Hyde. Aging Al Davis prefers kiss-ups to straight-talkers, and as a result, the franchise has disintegrated. They've drafted horribly (JaMarcus Russell is the biggest bust in NFL history), spent outrageously on free agents, and hired coaches with too few years in the business (or too many out of it) because men with options have opted to go elsewhere. The Raiders operates in a haze of dysfunction so thick that the current head coach can sock one of his own assistants—breaking the guy's jaw—and still keep his job.

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The Dumbest

5. New York Jets

The Jets made a surprising run to the AFC title game in 2009, but the performance coupled with an inability to sell Personal Seat Licenses (i.e., a revenue-generating flat fee that represents the right to buy tickets) drove the team to splurge on big-name vets who, in theory at least, would improve the roster and prompt fans to open their wallets. The result is sky-high expectations: anything less than a Super Bowl trip will be a failure. Meanwhile, the Jets have a nucleus of superb young talent (cornerback Darrelle Revis, center Nick Mangold, tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, linebacker David Harris) who all think they've been promised new contracts and know they can't all get one—only Ferguson and Mangold re-upped so far—and that has made them distrust the front office. Through it all, the Jets act as if they're geniuses. This season is likely to prove otherwise.

The Five Smartest—And Dumbest—NFL Franchises

The NFL can be a cruel, humbling, unpredictable league. But smart franchises know how to engineer some certainty into an inherently uncertain game, and then pray for the football gods to do the rest. For dumb franchises, winning isn't impossible, just unlikely—and almost impossible to repeat. The mastermind of the must-read pigskin website Profootballtalk.com names the five teams that use guile and wiles to give themselves the best chance every season—and the five teams that can only hope to get lucky