Saturday, March 12, 2011

I am sitting here after having just finished another mock draft wondering "Am I the only sober person that does mock drafts?" I mean seriously. Have you seen the ADP's or done a mock draft? There are a few players I seem to get in every mock draft. I get A-Rod and Jacoby Ellsbury quite frequently as I think they are severely undervalued as a result of injuries and perception. I end up getting Prince Fielder and Mark Reynolds in almost every draft. The thing about Reynolds is that he ends up slipping far enough in many 10 team mixed league drafts that I am able to get him as a bench player. Its nice having a bench player who hit 32 homeruns in only 499 AB at a shallow position.

AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB
Mark Reynolds: .198/32/85/79/7

You don't have to be a very observant person to notice why he is probably slipping. His .198 batting average. In standard 5x5 roto leagues I will draft Reynolds every chance I get at the value I am regularly seeing in mock drafts. He is currently being drafted around pick 130 (sometimes even as many as 15-20 picks later than that). His career low batting average is almost certain to rise this upcoming season along with his three year low in at-bats.

AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB
Pablo Sandoval: .268/13/63/61/3

Kung Foo Panda was high on many people's boards last year for the hot corner, and he was rather disappointing to those expecting a bust out year from him. His batting average dropped 62 points and his homerun total was halved. Last year's expectations were more than a little too high and were definitely too early. He is better than last year's stats, but not enough to beat out Reynolds for my 5x5 roto team.

That brings us to their head-to-head values. If you are in a 6x6 or 7x7 H2H league that includes BB and K then you need to take a further look. Reynolds has one of the worst BB/K numbers in the league.

Isn't that atrocious? If you are in a league like this you need to run from Reynolds like the plague. Combine those strikeouts with that batting average and you could have a recipe for disaster in H2H leagues if you are relying on Reynolds for much of anything.

Ultimately, again, it all depends on the categories your H2H league uses. If you take off strikeouts and add in slugging percentage this discussion would be totally different, but the fact remains that most H2H leagues use K's which is horrible news for prospective Reynolds owners. Expect both players to have rebound years when it comes to fantasy value, yet when it comes to H2H leagues go with the Panda.