>> Friday, September 02, 2011

Please see today's video. A picture is worth a thousand words, and I cover a lot of ground in today's video.

It will be fairly hot today and tomorrow with highs in the Piedmont in the low to even some mid 90s. A few showers and storms will be possible as well.

As we head into next week, I am getting more confident that much of the region will see some good rains as the moisture from TD 13 gets drawn northeastward and in our direction. It looks like the trough that swings in will be able to pull a lot of moisture up in this general direction, and that will coincide with the arrival of a cooler airmass. The result will likely be some quite cool, rainy conditions for parts of next week.

At this point, I expect some good rain chances Labor Day, Tuesday, and Wednesday at least. Tuesday could be the day with heaviest rainfall, and it is possible some Piedmont spots could fail to reach 70 for a high.

Tropics...

TD 13 is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this could become TS Lee in the next couple of days. However, the big story from this system will likely be flooding rains and not winds and surf. Some locations along the central Gulf coast could wind up seeing over 15-20" of rain before all is said and done.

Katia is still churning out in the Atlantic. I still think this one needs to be closely monitored for interests along the East coast. It might remain out to sea, but I am still not ready to buy into that solution lock, stock, and barrel.

>> Thursday, September 01, 2011

Lots of ground covered in today's edition of the video. Please give it a look for some graphics to go along with today's discussion.

Meteorological Fall has arrived, but it will feel a bit more like Summer over the next few days. It won't be bad, and the humidity will be pretty low, but highs today will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lower 90s tomorrow and Saturday.

A strong cold front will arrive by Monday, and ahead of that, some showers and storms will be possible in a limited fashion Sunday with some better chances Monday.

Much cooler air will arrive by Tuesday, and we could see some Piedmont highs shy of 80 in some spots with lows in the 50s by mid-week next week.

Tropics...

First off, Katia is a hurricane, and although it looks fairly ragged this morning, I expect a general strengthening trend in coming days. While a lot of modeling still suggests a turn north prior to impacting the US, I still don't think this is a lock, and I think all East Coast interests need to continue to closely monitor Katia.

In the Gulf, most modeling indicates that the tropical disturbance down that way will organize into Tropical Storm Lee over the next couple of days. This one will be a real forecast challenge as it will have very little steering currents working on it, so the system will tend to meander in the northern Gulf for a while.

Lots of rain will likely fall along the central Gulf coast, and some big flooding problems could develop there.

How much, if any, of that moisture gets pulled up our way remains a question mark.

>> Wednesday, August 31, 2011

We will round out August in grand fashion with lots of sun, low humidity, and highs in the 80s. The weather tomorrow will be much the same.

Highs will bump up into the lower 90s or so as we head through Saturday and Sunday, and then our next cold front arrives.

The specifics with our weather Monday through Wednesday next week will largely depend on what happens with a disturbance entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Frankly, the models are all over the place with this one. Please see the video for more. In short, the solutions range from a tropical system hitting south Texas to a system hitting the Florida Panhandle and lifting up near the Carolina coast.

Both the European and the GFS model wind up giving much of our region a couple of cooler, rainy days, but they get to that solution in very different ways. All said...we need more time to refine that part of the forecast.

Katia will likely become a hurricane today and still stands a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Most models continue to show this as being a non-threat to the US, but I am still not ready to confidently say this will be no problem. See the video for more.

>> Tuesday, August 30, 2011

After some big storms rumbled through the region yesterday afternoon and evening, some drier air is working in today, and the result will be some pretty nice weather over the next few days. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s....even a few upper 50s possible in some of the cooler spots the next couple of nights.

Our next decent storm chance probably comes Sunday into Monday. The system for late this work week looks weaker this morning, and the rain chance looks less significant.

Tropics...

TD 12 was upgraded to TS Katia this morning, and it looks like this thing should really take off in intensity. The system will have very little in the way of a Saharan dust layer to fight, and the only real negative I see in terms of intensification potential is the system's speed.... it's moving pretty quickly.

Katia could very well be a major hurricane a little northeast of the NE Caribbean Islands this weekend. From there, a lot of modeling would suggest a turn to the north before reaching the US. I am not ready to confidently proclaim that yet...we need to watch it.

>> Monday, August 29, 2011

First of all, I want to extend a huge 'thanks' to my buddy Hank Allen for providing some great content on the blog last week. There was a ton to talk about last week, with Irene of course being the biggest weather story.

Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout Saturday morning, and there has obviously been tons of problems in eastern NC. The big-time flooding problems then continues yesterday up into the Northeast US with historic flooding in some areas.

The final advisory has been issued on Irene....it is now a remnant low in eastern Canada.

Looking ahead, I expect a few storms to fire this afternoon as an upper level disturbance approaches. A few storms could produce some damaging wind gusts or some hail.

Overall, quiet weather then takes hold through the mid-week period before an upper low could bring some cloudy, showery weather Friday.

It looks like a sharp cold front will move through Sunday and Monday with some showers and storms followed by cooler air by next Tuesday or so.

Tropics...

Jose is a dying tropical storm not too far from Bermuda. It will likely fall apart altogether today.

TD 12 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This will be one of those classic long-track tropical systems across the Atlantic. It is too soon to tell for sure if it will re-curve before making a run at the eastern US.