Saturday, October 29, 2011

As of October 31 seven billion are living on this earth, according to the UN Population Division. This is only twelve years after the world's population reached six billion.
The website of the UN Population Division admits that there is the possibility of error by as much as twelve months. The US Census Bureau says the most likely date the world's population will reach seven billion is between March and April next year. Thus there is a great disparity between the various forecasts.
In my own lifetime the population of the world has tripled. In the year 1500 there were only 500 million people in the world, while in 1800 there were one billion.
Seven billion and counting. The population of the world is expected to hit eight billion by 2025.The UN estimates that the population of the world will reach nine billion by 2042 and stabilize at just over ten billion by 2100. As the following table shows, even the UN's own estimates vary greatly, depending on the rate of population growth.

The current annual rate of increase is only 1.2%. The global population growth rate peaked at 2.1 % in 1970 and has steadily declined since then, due largely to smaller family size.

Have you ever wondered how many people have ever lived on the earth? The following table is an educated guess:

How Many People Have Ever Lived On Earth? 108 Billion

Year

Population

Births per 1,000

Births Between Benchmarks

50,000 B.C.

2

-

-

8000 B.C.

5,000,000

80

1,137,789,769

1 A.D.

300,000,000

80

46,025,332,354

1200

450,000,000

60

26,591,343,000

1650

500,000,000

60

12,782,002,453

1750

795,000,000

50

3,171,931,513

1850

1,265,000,000

40

4,046,240,009

1900

1,656,000,000

40

2,900,237,856

1950

2,516,000,000

31-38

3,390,198,215

1995

5,760,000,000

31

5,427,305,000

2011

6,215,000,000

23

2,130,327,622

NUMBER WHO HAVE EVER BEEN BORN

107,602,707,791

World population in mid-2011

6,987,000,000

Percent of those ever born who are living in 2011

6.5

Source:Population Reference Bureau estimates

Other guesses range between 75-110 billion. For the sake of convenience, let us assume 100 billion. In that case, no more than 7% of the people who have ever lived are alive today. Seven billion and counting, but this is a very large number, as is the percentage.
The following video may also be helpful in understanding how these figures are calculated: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WTctr5kviA&feature=player_embedded#!.

Of the seven billion currently living on this earth, how many people and what percentage belong to the world's major religions? The following table illustrates this:

Religion

size

%

Christianity

2,234,770,118

33.32%

Islam

1,409,139,261

21.01%

Hinduism

889,347,292

13.26%

Buddhism

391,688,400

5.84%

Sikhism

23,474,476

0.35%

Judaism

15,426,084

0.23%

Bahá'í

8,048,392

0.12%

Other (incl. non-religious & atheists)

1,735,099,128

25.87%

Total

6,706,993,152

100%

Source: The CIA World Fact Book, 2008 ed.

The growth rate of these religions is shown in the next table:

Religion

Total

Natural (births)

Conversions

Growth

Christianity

25,210,195

22,708,799

2,501,396

1.36%

Islam

22,588,676

21,723,118

865,558

2.13%

Hinduism

12,533,734

13,194,111

-660,377

1.69%

Buddhism

3,687,527

3,530,918

156,609

1.09%

Sikhism

392,638

363,677

28,961

1.87%

Judaism

124,515

194,962

-70,447

0.91%

Bahá'í

143,491

117,158

26,333

2.28%

Confucianism

44,305

55,739

-11,434

0.73%

Jainism

34,951

74,539

-39,588

0.87%

Shinto

-31,993

8,534

-40,527

-1.09%

Taoism

25,242

25,397

-155

1.00%

Zoroastrianism

58,471

45,391

13,080

2.65%

Global population

78,860,791

78,860,791

-

1.41%

Source: Britannica Encyclopedia

From this table it is apparent that all the major religions in terms of size are experiencing a growth rate that exceeds the current growth rate of 1.1% of the world's population. Islam's growth rate is higher than that of Christianity, but in absolute numbers the increase of Christianity is greater.

The five fastest growing religions in terms of new adherents per year are:

The main reason for the higher percentage increase of Islam as compared to the other major religions is its higher fertility rate, but that is declining decade after decade, as one can see from the following tables:

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Avg. world fertility

3.50

3.40

3.30

3.30

3.20

3.10

3.10

2.90

2.90

2.90

2.80

Avg. Christian fertility

3.26

3.14

3.08

2.95

2.87

2.84

2.84

2.66

2.62

2.63

2.61

Avg. Muslim fertility

5.17

5.25

5.05

4.92

4.78

4.75

4.60

4.28

4.18

4.05

3.81

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Avg. world fertility

2.80

2.73

2.70

2.65

2.62

2.60

2.59

2.59

2.61

2.58

2.56

Avg. Christian fertility

2.62

2.55

2.54

2.51

2.49

2.46

2.50

2.52

2.60

2.58

2.56

Avg. Muslim fertility

3.69

3.62

3.56

3.56

3.52

3.47

3.44

3.37

3.30

3.23

3.00

Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2010 ed

Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2010 ed

These figures for the world's major religions suggest that they will continue to remain constant in relation to each other and to the population of the world as a whole, with perhaps a slight overall growth for the major religions. The next billion or two will probably divide in a way that is similar to what we find today.
In other words, religion is not dying, as some secularists believe. If anything, secularism may be declining. God is not yet dead. Far from it.

This does not mean that evangelism work by whatever religion is not useful. On the contrary, it contributes to the relatively higher conversion rate of some of them, but the percentages of the world's population for the various religions will remain more or less constant.

Conversion of St Paul

I have one concluding question which is theological and may stir up a few objections. Of the 100 billion or so people who have ever lived or are still living, how many were or are or will be saved? Is it only a small percentage of that vast number, as an analysis of these figures might suggest?

Personally, I am inclined to conclude that this may not be the best way to state the question. But if it is acceptable, then I suggest that God did not create 100 billion people in order to assign most of them to hell, which I interpret as a total separation from God.

On the contrary, God loves his creation so much that all his creatures, including all or most of the 100 billion, experience his love and can enjoy his presence.

This may seem a controversial assertion, but it follows I believe from this brief study of the world's ever increasing population and the world's religions.
Lest I be accused of universalism, let me deny that claim. There is a lot of biblical warrant for my assertion, but I do not want to dredge up texts on both sides of this debate. I want to avoid biblicism, and yet I do want to remain true to the Christian scriptures.
There may be some people who are not saved, but many, even most, are. Otherwise, what sort of a God do we worship? Our God is a loving God! He does not want any to perish!
The question of who is saved and how many are saved is not ours to answer. God alone knows. He alone decides. Or do we claim to be wiser than God?
I am convinced that this number is much greater than many of us are willing to acknowledge.
God's love is much greater than anything we can imagine. It reaches out to each and everyone of us. That some may reject that love is a whole other issue that I do not want to address right now.
I want to leave you with an image of God's love reaching out to each of us as well as to each person who has ever lived. If you deny this by limiting his love, your God is too small.
Seven billion and counting. And more than a 100 billion people in all. What an amazing God! What amazing love!

About Me

This illustrated blog discusses what is happening in the world today, especially if it involves religion. After a long period of being dismissed from discussion in the public square, religion is once again openly talked about because of increased recognition of its role in the world today. This change is evident in the light of new developments in the Middle East and North Africa.
Allow me to introduce myself. I received a Th.M. from Calvin Theological Seminary and a Ph.D. from St. Michael's College at the University of Toronto. For almost forty years I taught philosophy and theology in many countries, primarily the Philippines, Russia, and Nigeria.
For most of the year I live in Toronto, together with my wife, Wendy, who also lectures in philosophy and theology. We have three adult children: a daughter living in Toronto; a son also living in Toronto, who has a son; and another daughter, who has four children, living near Boston.