Key swing groups swing away from Democrats

This report was written by Torhild Martinussen of the Washington bureau.

Unless every poll out there is wrong, Democrats are going to take a beating in the 2010 midterm elections. The latest CBS News/NY Times poll found that 46 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Republicans and 40 percent said they would support Democrats.

That’s a huge reversal from 2006 and 2008, when Democrats led the so-called “generic ballot test” en route to (first) regaining control of Congress and (second) solidifying their majority.

Meredith McDermott/Hearst Newspapers

President Obama’s 2008 coalition has unraveled, and Speaker Pelosi and House Majority Leader Hoyer (left) may lose their posts.

But the shift toward Republicans is not uniform. Many groups that were key parts of the President Obama’s winning coalition have defected this year, according to the Pew Research Center. Some key examples:

☑ Among independents there is a clear shift toward the Republican Party. This group, captured by President Obama in 2008, now sides with Republicans by a 16 percentage point margin, Gallup finds.

☑ Even though women historically have favored Democratic candidates — ever since John F. Kennedy created the first gender gap — the New York Times/CBS News poll finds that they are more likely to back a Republican over a Democrat by a 4 percentage point margin in this election.

☑Gallup detected a shift toward Republicans among seniors this summer. The 65-plus crowd has grown increasingly more fond of the Republicans since. A survey conducted from Oct. 13-18 by Pew Research Center, finds that among voters 65 and older, the Republicans hold a 14-point edge over the Democrats. In Nov. 2006, Democrats won by 5 points among seniors.

☑ Democrats still lead among self-described moderates, but this bloc accounting for 35 percent of the electorate is significantly less Democratic than two and four years ago.

☑Catholics and suburbanites, key swing blocs that backed President Obama after twice favoring President Bush, have switched back and now line up behind the Republican candidate in their congressional districts, according to the latest NY Times/CBS News poll. This is a sign of impending disaster for Democrats from New Jersey to Washington state. (Here is the full report.)

☑Middle-income voters have edged further into the Republican column. Among families with income ranging from $30,000 to $74,999, Republicans now have a 12-point edge, compared to 5 points in Nov. 2006, the poll conducted by the Pew Research Center found.

☑ John McCain defeated Barack Obama among Non-Hispanic whites by a narrow margin, but the GOP’s edge has increased enormously since then. In the last midterm elections in 2006, non-Hispanic whites favored Republican by 7 points. Now, it’s a 22-point advantage, Pew Research Center reported earlier this week.

☑ Democratic support has actually increased in the Northeast over the past four years and has remained pretty steady on the West Coast. But it has tanked in the Midwest. From a Democratic edge of 11 points in 2006, likely Midwestern voters are now overwhelmingly cheering the GOP, with a 16-point Republican lead. Say goodbye to Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe even Illinois, Democrats!

☑ Democrats have been a minority in the South since the Reagan revolution, but the trend has accelerated since Obama became president. Republicans have tripled their 6-point edge in congressional preference since 2006. The GOP now has a commanding 18-point advantage in the South, according to the Pew Research Center poll. That puts Democratic incumbents in grave jeopardy in center-right districts in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.

14 Responses

When people voted for “Change” in 2008; they should have asked: “Change to what?” Now they know what “what” actually is, and, as told in the poll, they don’t like it. Nothing really scientific about that.

Checks and balances. Maybe the Dems will filibuster all the Republican bills now and we will still see no results from government. When it comes to the economy, government can not be the main engine. Gov’t intervention is important, but can not make free markets do what it wants. Economic expansion and growth has to be organic and come from market demands and commerce.

Key words here though – likely voters. Who will come out to vote now? How many people will actually vote for something other than President? I predict record numbers. If not, Dems will not lose as badly as this article indicates.

1) 15,000,000 people out of work under Dems plans.
2) Trillions of new debt under Dems plans.
3) Obama-Care ruining the health care system under the Dems plans.
4) Afghan War a quagmire under Dems plans.
5) IRAN getting the nuclear bomb under DEMS plans.
6) Millions of houses in foreclosure under Dems plans.
7) Obama economic team quitting new change coming.
8) Property taxes going up under Dems plans.
9) Joe Biden and Obama angry middle aged men under DEMS plans.
10 Cap and trade tax to raise your utility bills 30% under DEMS plans.
11)Billions in “Shovel ready Obama projects” coming soon under Dems plans.
12) Spitzer/Paterson ticket a great success at the state level under Dem plans.
13) NY State Senate a great success under Dem plans.
14) State Comptrollers Hevesi & DiNapoli a great success under Dem plans.

1) 50,000,000 people out of work with no plan to recover other than giving money to the rich.
2) Trillions of hidden debt with tax giveaway plan.
3) No health care system and no plan, 50,000,000 uninsured and rising; emergency room continues to be the location of choice for services – COSTS SKYROCKET!!! MORE MONEY SPENT TO CARE FOR FEWER PEOPLE!!!
4) Afghan War ignored (and still left OFF THE BOOKS) under Repub plans.
5) IRAN nuking Israel under Repub watch.
6) Trillions of dollars lost as houses drop in value from quicky foreclosures.
7) More bubbles in the economy as regulations removed.
8) Property taxes going up as Federal taxes go away.
9) Tea Party still angry as government completely gridlocked – what’s worse than a government doing too much? A government doing NOTHING!!!
10 Continued funneling of money to our enemies in the middle east as we continue our dependence on oil.
11) Crumbling infrastructure allowed to get worse.
12) Social security privatized AND BANKRUPTED after next economic bubble bursts.

Obama’s brand of socialism is making this country into a third world power. Jobs are all going overseas due to the increased cost for businesses for Obamacare. The military is being weakened just as it was under Carter. 44 % of the people do not pay any income tax, the majority of these people are getting federal assistance from the 56% of those who do pay taxes. Unskilled laborers are crossing our borders illegally by the millions. The USA is coming to the end of its time as a world leader. Just like the Roman Empire, every thing must come to an end sometime.

I’m a member of a least several key swing groups and I’m stuck with voting for Cuomo. It’s not my first choice but you REPUBLICANS did a piss poor job of finding a credible candidate to present a choice. Who among you are really working for the other side? Seriously, Palaweenie is the lamest candidate your lame party has ever presented. And, given Bush & Palin, that’s saying something.

You can always vote for Hawkins, Redlich, or another 3rd party candidate as a protest vote.

I’m voting for Hawkins, yet not as a protest. I view him as the only true progressive out there. Cuomo is more like a moderate Republican than a Democrat. He might as well change his party the day after the election as far as I’m concerned.

BILLYWILLY, they can do whatever they want until 2012. They HAD the bull by the horns and the chance they wanted and blew it big time… they didn’t stick to ANY promises, backroom Washington politics as usual.