Tuesday, 14 October 2014

India’s crown of thorns

by Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 14th Oct 14

Jammu &
Kashmir (J&K) remains in the news, mostly for negative reasons --- the
devastating flood and its aftermath; ceasefire violations on the border; and
for what is shaping up to be a communally polarised election. With New Delhi failing
to engage Srinagar meaningfully, resentful Kashmiris have dismissed its flood rescue
effort as a self-serving gimmick, and blamed Indian bull-headedness for ceasefire
violations. The forthcoming elections --- which New Delhi likes to hold up as
Kashmir’s acceptance of democratic India --- will be dissed by Kashmiris as an Indian
ploy.

If Prime
Minister Modi is to drain the Kashmiri ulcer, he cannot be deterred by the
strident, pro-azadi rhetoric, which
reflects just one side of the Kashmiri brain. Instead, he must reach out to the
other side, launching a serious initiative to convince Kashmiris that their future
lies with India. New Delhi’s shabby practice for winning Kashmiri hearts has traditionally
been to throw money at the valley through leaky schemes that benefits only the
venal political-contractor lobby that is India’s constituency in the valley. Most
Kashmiris find this practice deeply offensive, yearning as they do for political
solutions to the 25-year-old armed uprising and the six-decade-long political
struggle.

Mr Modi must,
therefore, reach out to the valley with eye-catching political concessions. The
obvious, low-hanging fruit waiting to be plucked is the Jammu & Kashmir
Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1990 (AFSPA), the emergency law that legally
empowers the army to search, apprehend, destroy property and shoot to kill on
suspicion. The generals insist they need the protection of AFSPA in an
environment in which militancy has taken control of the judiciary. In 2011,
when J&K chief minister, Omar Abdullah, proposed revoking AFSPA in the districts
of Srinagar, Budgam, Jammu and Samba, the army’s top commander in the valley,
Lieutenant General Syed Ata Hasnain --- an officer acclaimed for his outreach
--- flatly rejected the idea as premature.

Hasnain
offered a comprehensive rationale for retaining AFSPA. He argued that the peace
of 2011, coming after three straight years of mass street agitations across
Kashmir, was a separatist strategy to rest, regroup and recruit; before
resuming the agitation in 2012. Declaring that Kashmir presented not just a law
and order problem but also an existential threat to India, Hasnain said the
army’s road lifelines to its defences on the Line of Control pass through Srinagar
and Badgam. He pointed out that the air approaches to Srinagar airfield, used
by civilian airliners and military aircraft, needed to be secured by the army,
as did the Srinagar cantonment, from where war with Pakistan would be directed.
Underlying the army’s reluctance to forego AFSPA is the conviction that, once lifted,
its reintroduction would be politically impossible, even in a crisis. Neither
the central, nor state, governments have reassured the army on this account.

The army steadfastly
rejects the proposal to withdraw AFSPA from Srinagar and Badgam, even though
the J&K Police and the Central Reserve Police Force protect these districts,
neither of which are covered by AFSPA. The generals argue that police and CRPF
protection is just one layer of security. As important for keeping these
districts safe are “area domination” operations by army columns to keep
militants at bay. These operations, says the army, must be covered by AFSPA.

So far the
army’s apprehensions have proved to be unfounded. The years since 2011 have
gone by without renewed street protests. Now a new spectre has been raised ---
the army says the NATO drawdown from Afghanistan at the end of this year could
bring jihadi hordes flooding into
Kashmir. Next year the bogey could be The Islamic State. One Kashmiri has asked
me whether complete, global peace is a pre-requisite for lifting AFSPA and
restoring normalcy in Kashmir.

Thinking
strategically, rather than merely tactically or operationally, it is hard to
dispute that AFSPA has emerged as a potent symbol of oppression, the
disadvantages of which transcend any protection that it might once have provided
the military. The army understands that, in battle, when a defensive position
is under overwhelming attack, it is time to withdraw to a fallback position. Yet
the generals have not translated that battlefield common sense to an identical
situation on the psychological and perceptual plane. Defending AFSPA is simply
too damaging for the army’s own image. It is time to fall back to the next
position, by devising operating procedures that do not require the protection
of this draconian law.

Criticism
of AFSPA, which resonates worldwide, is embarrassing for New Delhi. In 2005,
the Jeevan Reddy Committee, established to review AFSPA, termed it “a symbol of
oppression, an object of hate and an instrument of discrimination and
high-handedness.” In 2013, the Justice J S Verma Committee, which was set up to
examine criminal law relating to sexual assault, sharply criticised AFSPA and
recommended its immediate repeal. Last year, the Justice Santosh Hegde
Commission, mandated to examine extrajudicial executions in Manipur, noted that
AFSPA had made “a mockery of the law”. International criticism has been as
sharp with several UN special rapporteurs, and international human rights
bodies urging New Delhi to repeal the law.

Repealing
this law is essential for enhancing India’s moral stature and that of the army.
It would substantially defang the criticism of human rights groups and that of
Kashmiri separatists. Finally, it would send out an unmistakeable signal that
New Delhi is ready for a political dialogue with Kashmir, a prerequisite for
restoring normalcy to that troubled state.

28 comments:

On intellectual grounds a wonderful analysis. I will not delve upon Kashmir issue. Picking up a lead from Mr Ajai's article, he is correct in highlighting the foreseeable vulnerabilities that may effect regional imbalance on withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Now all the more reason for both neighbors to stop mudslinging on each other. The social media should pressurize governments of their countries to stop using their intelligence apparatuses for saboteurs operations on each other's land. Rather should facilitate in sharing the burden of jointly crushing the menace of upcoming ISIS emergence in the area which may have far reaching implications which both countries can't afford. Mr Moodi must realize that he has great responsibilities on his shoulders for transforming his country to Shining India and must not be get lured by hardliners. The LoC firing initiatives viz quid pro quo is a testimony of its reflection.

NSR says --- It may be tough to fight the kind of new generation of terrorists the Pakistan army, Taliban, and Al Qaeda of India sending to Jammu and Kashmir...

However, as an experiment, it may be worthwhile to suspend it for a year and see how the things work out in controlling law and order...

In my opinion, Maharajah of J&K acceded to India so we must abolish article 370 and make it a state just like all others so everyone can go and establish businesses and government can develop infrastructure projects, etc...

The laws are very strange and contributing to exacerbation of the development and resolution... The terrorists and separatists will keep ethnic cleansing of Pandits, Hindus, Gujjars, migrants, etc

If a one year removal of this law does not solve the problem, then we must abolish article 370 and go on with development and our own life...

Interesting and relevant debate - AFSPA. There are two aspects to it - One. Powers of the army to search, apprehend, destroy property and shoot to kill on suspicion. Two - A form of immunity from legal action for acts done, till some sanction of authorities is obtained. ( Being retired for some years now, I forget the actual wordings).I think the first aspect can't be helped. We need to either do it, or get out. Can't just sit there and distribute medicines and sweets. Would be very happy to get out to our cantonments in Lucknow, Chennai etc. As for the second aspect, it surely is a bad one. Why should there be a need for the complainant to seek any sanction to start proceedings against someone he sees as a criminal? A double whammy, which surely works against the person who has the complaint. So, this provision must go. But hold on. The need to first obtain a sanction is not only in cases of 'fauzis in a AFSPA zone'. It is for many heroes in India. I believe you can't directly start proceedings against senior bureaucrats, governors, CMs, PM and the President. People who have complaints against them, too, are handicapped. So, these great guys too must lose that temporary immunity. Let the common man be the king. But it would not be right to make him the king against the hardworking fauzi, but not against the IAS officer, CM, PM and President of India. So, let the country make up its mind and remove the cushion FOR EVERYONE.BTW, I raised and commanded an RR unit (specialist counter insurgency force) in Doda, in high insurgency times, WITHOUT the AFSPA protection. But I alone know how I managed. Let no one go through that again.

1. Why was the bill at all introduced in India / J&K and imposed in certain areas ? Have those conditions vanished for abrogation of the bill ? Or rather the threat looms larger ?

2. Is the bill unconstitutional and undemocratic? No, The Supreme Court has ruled that it is not and the bill does not impinge on the federal character of the Constitution? So what is your problem ?

3. Who is in charge of the law and order in J&K ? If it is J&K police or the Central police, how many Shuklas will be implicated for murder, rape extortions and Human Rights violations ? How many colonels will be attending the Court hearing in Srinagar every day under the shadow of the guns? The Corps Commander there would almost spent his tenure in the High Court.

4. Has India ensured that she has all weather supply line to Ladakh region which would remain unaffected in case the valley is paralysed.

5. Is not Srinagar and Badgam central to the supply lines and communication arteries ? How does Shukla expect to be every thing alright in Barmulla or Tangdhar when Srinagar is under the control of terrorists wielding guns or thumping their chests ?

6. Look at this so called ex Colonel who masquerades as military analyst pontificating about Valley when he has not served there even for a day ? I am very certain he does not know the Chemistry of the valley ? He may know the chemistry of Omars hospitality which is good !!

7. What does India's experience in appeasing valley Muslims say ? Ye Dil Mange More ... so much more that it become the epicentre of terrorism of Political Islam ... Is not it ?? If not that than at least Kashmiri terrorism .. Ah !

Well the readers of this blog know that Ajay is not pressing this case for the first time but is the foremost theoretical and rhetoric propagator for his friend Omar ..... who is desperate to win the next election which are nearby... by abolishing or at least shouting about AFSPA !! I thought previous two years hullaha bullah on this issue is well settled .. but not for Ajay Shukla...

So, Shukla you can have single malt in India rather than across or in the valley.. Things Indian are equally good !!

Ajai, have you completely gone off your rocker? If not then have you been smoking something new and psychedelic? If the answer to that too is also a no, then my third question to you you is how much are you being paid to write this utter nonsense that you you are trying to pass off as tactical analysis?

Having read comments of some others here and news of protests against movie 'Haider', it seems to me that people just do not understand the genuine anger of Kashmiris. Protests against the help provided by armed forces in the flood situation, too, should open our eyes. Unless something significant is done in the interest of the Kashmiris (not those of the government of J&K/Delhi and/or the electoral needs of BJP), we will lose Kashmir, sooner than later. Getting Kashmir back to the hell it was in 90s, is also akin to losing it. Only, am not sure whether removing AFSPA is the only answer. A dilemma for me.

You clearly don't have any counter-arguments to offer, and have taken recourse to allegations!

What does highlight the severe limitations of your thinking is your categorisation of this article as "tactical analysis". In fact, the article urges the generals not to think tactically, but strategically on Kashmir.

Go back and read it again. And try, just for once, to think strategically. Remember that the US military won practically every tactical battle they fought in Vietnam, but still lost the campaign at the strategic level.

Anonymous - Your suggestion 'Cut ISIS flag bearers like sheep' epitomises all that is wrong in the valley - occasional murderous intent and overall utter confusion. These ISIS flags were waived not in some remote place, secretly. They were waived at the most happening place, on the Eid day, openly in the midst of gun toting security men. When these guys didn't arrest them there, will they hunt them and arrest them? And if you do manage to arrest them, you shouldn't be slaughtering people like sheep. What if they apply the same principle to people in your home town.

Here is my disruptive idea,1. partition J&K into 3 states, Jammu, Ladhak and Kashmir valley. (forget all nonsense of articel 470 or is it 420 :))2. Terror is the best weapon, as is amply demonstrated by ISIS. Emulate the ISIS model in Kashmir valley and other "terrorist" populated areas.3. Its high time to shed the nobler-than-thou image and implement some bloody-damn-straight practical strategy.

Ajai, to your very inappropriate comparison of Vietnam with Kashmir, I would offer an alternate useful comparison. viz. Chengiz Kahn and his army used terror to crush and defeat the Muslim Arabs, before converting to Islam for geo-political benefits. His strategy/ability to divide his forces into smaller groups and then regroup them at their battle-fields (cities) earned him many victories. The key theme, as has been proven by successfull Generals, (Darius, Alexander, Chengiz Kahn, Mughals, British, Hitler, America, China) is to take the battle/war into enemy's territory. Indian Generals (except maybe Ashoka) always preached restraint, maybe because of cultural issues. However the time has come to face the grim truth of our surroundings and base a more confident strategy based on sound military experiences. What you are professing is the language of an inept and uncertain military strategist, the likes of which unfortunately are only found in India. I want to see India link-up with Afghanistan by direct road. Whoever comes in between, we need to bull-dozz them into the road. That's the language our strategist need to develop and implement, especially with those threatening our culture and nation. This time, unlike the Bangladesh war, take no prisoners. And like ISIS slaughter all prisoners and release a video on youtube. Its sad, but you really portray an image of a timid warrior when it comes to Pakistan. Age of Ramayan and Puru are long gone, War is all about killing, if you like it or not. Call me whatever you like, but Geneva convention rules don't apply to Jihadis and those who profess and support such activities, such as ISIS and those seeking Caliphate. Either you can live in glory of conquest or misery of servitude, you seem to the prefer the later by your continuous apologetic articles. If Muslims don't like India, they can walk over to Pakistan/IS Caliphate now and leave everything behind, else shut-the-fuck up.

Afspa should be removed, simultaneously with abrogation of article 370. Ajai sahib is an Aman ka tamasha supporter......nothing wrong with that. Long term strategy being to defang Indian govt, using tactics such as this nonsensical piece of reporting.

You might have seen the Valley of 1990s but seem to know nothing before that when there were Kashmiri labours and coolies at every bus stop, every station and in every small, medium or large towns of Punjab, Himachal and J8k. Kashmiri muslims was synonym of being a labour coolie and earning his living by being a beast of burden.

But by 1990 and later, name a village in valley which does not have water, no road and no electricity ? show me a house in entire valley where there is no toilet outside the house.

It is Indian democracy that has pampered every Kashmiri down to the last man whose conditions has improved ...except the Guzars whom Kashmiris hate, consider them even not being Muslims and do not consider them even Kashmiris.

If any thing was missing, the short fall has been made up by the terrorists, insurgents and Pakistani money - the civilian leaders and contractors - who made the valley a heaven for themselves and their source of money.

You say those people will revolt ? Such pampred lots revolt for more soaps and not for real Azadi. They are the elites of India and can never ever stayput with Pakistanis, Punjabis or Pathans or Afghans ? You are scaring us in the name of those who have treacherously become master of J&k and do not give a damn to Dogras, Dodawals, Ladhakies and others because of their numbers.

What can they do except ask their women to show their chest and shout aazadi. Do they know what aazadi is all about ? They want Azadi in the same fashion as Omar and Mahbooba, the same azadi as Gilani, Malik or some other politicians to send their children to England, USA, Delhi or Aligarh. Their Azadi is very restricted and narrow!

Indian democracy has not lost anyone so far and these fellows are nothing compared to Nagas, Mizos or Assamese have no spine for Azadi ..they are spoilt brates ... they never had it in history ... the only time and chance being under Indian democracy...

India's Crown of Thorns - You said http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pakistan-should-incite-fighting-in-kashmir-says-musharraf-bjp-slams-anti-india-rant/ar-BB9re37

71-year-old Musharraf, who is currently on bail in a treason case, told a TV channel, "We have source (in Kashmir) besides the (Pakistan) army...People in Kashmir are fighting against (India). We just need to incite them."

"In Kashmir, we can fight with the (Indian) army from both the front and back...We are Muslims. We will not show the other cheek when we are slapped. We can respond tit for tat," he said, while commenting on the recent firing along the Line of Control and International Border.

Musharraf also said (Narendra) "Modi is anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan. He has not changed. The problem is with us...We are running to attend his (Modi) inauguration, we should keep our dignity."

I am just curious Col. Shukla to know if you can live for a year in middle of Kashmir and report from LOC, Sopore, Kishtwar,etc about how things going and how hospitable it is for you and of course the brave jawans...

I think without any kind of immunity the local police will keep arresting and investigating every trouble in which people or inured of killed...

Pretty soon morale will go to zero and no new recruits will come in to enlist for army...

Though I wrote for a 1 year suspension, I think the soldiers should be protected...

Otherwise, Kashmir will be pretty soon over run by LeT, JeM, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, etc

That is one of the reason why my country USA withdrew from Iraq completely as Iraq did not want to give any immunity to soldiers.

Now is how they are suffering in a grotesque manner at the hands of Islamic State...

What wrong has AFSPA done to Kashmir ? How has it alienated the people of Kashmir ? How has it prevented the Kashmiris injuring more than 4000 CRPF personnel getting injured ?

How has it prevented the Kashmiris firing at the rescue teams during flood ?

The only issue is immunity of Armed Forces personal being arrested for false accusations like Chhittipura ?

The only issue is that the "Ranbir Penal code and Procedure" would not apply to the members of Armed Forces?

OK, tell us how the people of J&K feel part of India by merely withdrawing AFSPA ?

Why not withdraw Article 370 instead ?

Please do tell us, being an ex Army Mud Corps officer, how can an Army conduct CI operations when their both hand are tied and legs pulled back by the shackles of law as used by insurgents, vested interest and organisations funded by ISI, Pakistani establishments and international establishment.

Withdraw AFSPA and No Collector, No Tahsildar and No police station will be able to function in the valley ?

Is that your concept of winning the hearts and minds ?

You want a Tambi sepoy from Madras to attend courts in the suburbs of Srinagar for his life ?

You may say- Police also functions in the absence of special laws ! Police are the custodians of law and have inbuilt advantages which Army does not have. Secondly, there would be no terrorism or insurgency if police were to be effective at all ! If you wish someone to face bullets, he needs to be given legal protection.

You are espousing a useless case. The time has not come so far in the story of integration of India where Armed Forces are no longer required to be used to that end. Wait for hundred more years

"It would substantially defang the criticism of human rights groups and that of Kashmiri separatists. Finally, it would send out an unmistakeable signal that New Delhi is ready for a political dialogue with Kashmir, a prerequisite for restoring normalcy to that troubled state." What a brilliant strategic objective! Its no secret who the audience for such groups (Human Rights & Separatists) is? Russia, China and America all P-5 nations (including Pakistan) don't give a damn to such groups and know precisely the language of power. It is then, as per your analysis, that the mantle (burden) of apeasement of such groups must be India's sole responsibility. Ajai, given the stated objectives of ISIS, Wahabis and Jihadis, I pressume that you are either too naive or unwilling to accept the truth (Dodo). Just like the Americans and Europeans, with their technological superiority induced 'stupor', don't seem to realize the threat that Islam represents to their concept of liberty and secularism. I guess they are slowly getting out of that stupor. We are essentially in an undeclared existential war with a group which doesn't subscribe to the modern concepts of liberty, secularism and equal rights for all (man and woman). I wonder who really is regressive here! Wake up Ajai, before its too late, and you find yourself in an ISIS beheading video as a victim. WAKE-UP! I have no ill-feelings towards Kashmiris as a people, but can they say the same for us! I firmly believe elimination of article 370 instead of AFSPA will bring back Kashmiris from isolation and into opportunities. Kashmir lost the prospect of AZADI the moment Pakistan invaded it and captured 1/3rd of its territory and gave parts of it to China. Also when we say Kashmiris, are we also including Buddhists, Hindus, Sikhs, Christians of the state? These other groups too are equal stake-holders of Kashmir, not only Muslims. As long as a single non-muslim Kashmiri lives in Kashmir, his/her voice and right will have equal weight as the entire Muslim population of that state by virtue of being a separate entity. The Muslims of Kashmir demand Azadi based on religious grounds, when Kashmir is essentially multi-religious! How can then India, a champion of secularism, forsake a religious minority in Kashmir? IMPOSSIBLE! We will fight as long as their is 1 Buddhist, 1 Sikh, 1 Hindu, 1 Christian Kashmiri living in Kashmir.

Ajay, it is a good attempt at the middle ground. However us Kashmiri's may already have lost all hope in India and no desire to be part of it. We do not feel at home when we go out on the streets and have to look at indian faces, holding guns, for our protection. For us IA and every other Indian force is an occupying power.

This was not always the case off course. Pakistani's and azad kashmiris used to joke that we (people of the valley) should have helped them in the 48 war to be free. We used to say 'but we are free'. However, the way things have turned out, our new generation has no future, no hope. Their only desire is to be free from India at all cost.

Most of the people on your blog have never been to Kashmir or ever interacted with people there. This is why they get surprised when Kashmiri students raise pakistani's flags. It does not mean that they want to be part of paksitan, but they want to hurt india, the way they have been hurt. And kashmir is hurting. The way i have seen indian's react to your mild suggestions, I suspect kashmiri's will just need to get used to the pain.

Colonel, you write that AFSPA has emerged as a potent symbol of oppression. I would like to point out that for people who see even the relief efforts as symbol of oppression removing AFSPA will bring no satisfaction. On the other hand it will tie the hands of army in case of serious security problems which Pakistan is hell bent on creating.

Ajai Sir, this is not really a direct comment/opinion on your post. But yes, because the theme is connected - I would like to share it here. This, perhaps will supplement what Anonymous @ 16 October 2014 20:15 said.

Recently I flew to Kualalumpur from Colombo. A middle aged Pakistani gentleman from Gujranwala was seated next to me. We chatted cordially and as expected, the issue of Kashmir came up. He told me that a lot of young Pakistanis believe that Kashmiris now enjoy being pampered by both the sides and this is costing both the sides dearly.

If what he said is true, I would say - we must look at the case a completely new approach as it is no more a CI mission; it has become a game and must be dealt like that