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The situation in Gaza

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Netanyahoo, as well his allies in Washington and London, fears a ground war in Gaza. His troops would likely get bogged down in urban guerrilla fighting and would take losses from the new arms Hamas acquired from Libya and elsewhere. Public opinion in Israel would turn against Netanyahoo should any invasion of Gaza end up with high casualty rates on the Israeli side.

But if Israel continues the bombing the pressure from the outside to end the war will increase. There are this time many more journalists in Gaza than there were in 2008. Detailed news and pictures of each and every civilian killed is getting out and with each of them Israel's position in the court of world opinion will sink further.

The bombing campaign has a time limit and a ground war is too dangerous. Those are the weaknesses of Netanyahoo's position.

Hamas knows those weaknesses. As longer it holds off a ceasefire while continuing to fire some rockets into Israel the better its negotiation position will become. It will probably try to goad Netanyahoo into a ground war. One rocket hit with a high Israeli causality rate might be sufficient to achieve that. After such a hit public pressure, especially from the right, to go "all in" would increase. At some point Netanyahoo might have no other way to end the stalemate by committing more forces. Hamas is likely well prepared for that moment.
As long as Hamas keeps its fighting spirit and does not give in to appeasement pressure from Qatar and other U.S. clients it has a good chance of in the end coming away stronger while seeing Netanyahoo weakened.

Of course this strategy is based on the ability to take horrific civilian casualties. I am not so sympathetic with Hammas war lords. But I have no use for Netanyahoo either.

Comments

What was it 10,000 ground troops for Operation Cast Lead. Now there are 75,000 being readied on the southern border? You think Netanyahu is reluctant? And Barak?

Let's see ... 9 Israelis injured in that "war" a/k/a massacre, 1400 Gazans and how many maimed?

Nice chance for Netanyahu to test out all that wonderful weaponry on the Gazans in prep for war with Iran.

The whole world is watching the slaughter but that hasn't stopped the "deciders" who "might makes right" and hypocritical rationalizations and a corporate media totally dominated by Israel/US cronyism and islamophobia. The importance is to play out the kabuki for faux-justice as Hillary and Obama will do with their usual stunning wimpy posturing from political imagination never a moral one, never a statesperson one. And who is the US to object to ethnic cleansing when you look at what the US continues on with -- with or without Petraeus. Working with al Qaeda, still waiting for that to be a news story.

The far right in Israel is already all in, like the flaming war hawks of this country. Think the three amigos.

Court of world opinion? Well, that has been very angry at Israel for ages, why should Israel care now? And the court of US opinion? Seriously? Still calling out Israel a third rail for ferocious Jewish apologism despite the horrific photos of the Gazan casualties and the numbers and who their victims are -- any one! Demonization of Gazans reminds me of how the western pioneers of America considered the only good Indian was a dead one.

Forgive my emotionalism, DC. Just because there are feelings, doesn't mean there are not facts to inspire them. There sure are horrors.

And there has been a sustained sadistic occupation before the now titillating war carnage. Americans are so well-conditioned the desensitization will set in soon. More sex scandal will do it. And the reality behind all this will stay buried. Far too much of it, even though people will be tired by the cognitive dissonance and back away as if they got real answers.

Meanwhile our tax dollars provide the weaponry for genocide and our political/corporate propaganda enable and escalate evil--EVERYWHERE. And those lesser-evilist progressives, they are particularly effective now. After all, they wrote Obama a blank check for murder and all sorts of evil!

Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare. (Japanese proverb)

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