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Tuesday, 30 November 1999

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Karl Marx wrote that history repeats itself as farce. Atal BehariVajpayee needs to take note, for the initial direction of hisgovernment gives the impression he believes that it is not a 1998model BJP-led sarkar but a recycled version of the 1950 Nehrugovernment. Sadly, neither does the BJP enjoy the majority inParliament and the state assemblies that the Congress party hadduring that time, nor is the country a freshly independent oneeager to be moulded.Instead of expending effort on determining ways of gettingbread—and—butter legislation passed in a fractious Parliament, theVajpayee government is cogitating over major Constitutionalchanges. Fifty years have gone by since Independence, andduring this time the Constitution has evolved in incrementalsteps rather than in the sudden leap implied in A. B. Vajpayee’sproposal. Moderation is preferable to the chop and cut of lessstable polities. Pakistan, for example, has moved fromWestminster-style democracy to Basic Democracy to BhuttoPopulism to Martial Law to Islamic State. Hopefully, this countrywill be spared such turmoil. Instead of setting up (yet anotherexpensive) commission, what needs to be done is to bringforward in the nominal course limited proposals for changes in afew clauses.In another display of a subliminal belief that India gotfreedom only after he was sworn in as Prime Minister a monthago, A. B. Vajpayee - through his parliamentary affairs minister— would like to appoint a Delimitation Commission that wouldmake Lok Sabha seats proportional to population.This would reward the least efficient states with moreparliamentary clout, and make them the masters of the federal structure, rather than equal partners with the rest. Tensions would get created that would exceed those in 1965, when it was proposed that English be abolished by 1967. Should M. L. Khurana go ahead with his plan, the regional parties would swiftly withdraw support, and he and his chief will get plenty of leisure to write articles on constitutional and political reform. If the Vajpayee government insists on spending more money on Parliament, then it should come forward with legislation that increases the number of Lok Sabha seats proportionately in all the states. This would insure against damage to the federal principle, and avoid punishing those states that effectively implemented family welfare programmes. Along with this, measures should be taken-to break up states with populations larger than 50 million. As the anarchy in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has shown, regional governments are as yet unable to handle apopulation size in excess of 50 million. New states should therefore be the priority, rather than risking the destruction of the regional balance within the country by upsetting the present proportions between the states in the matter of Lok Sabha seats. Along with rewriting the Constitution and changing the regional balance to make four states dominate the country’s politics, A. B. Vajpayee would also like to take the path trodden by the two previous Cleans, Rajiv Gandhi and Vishwanath Pratap Singh. Apparently, Pramod Mahajan has yet to inform his boss that the many meetings and campaigns organised by the BJP were not entirely funded by widows and orphans. As a result, Sedapatti Muthiah was nudged out of the government, setting in motion a process that has now claimed Buta Singh and is likely before long to affect Ram Jethmalani, besides several others. Indeed, with assets a mere Rs. 40 lakh more than his income, Muthiah is a relative pauper in high-level politics. chief minister of a state where the BJP is an alliance partner is worth ten times as much, even according to the records. Fortunately, there is no Karunanidhi there to uncover such indiscretions. However, now that the Tamil Nadu chief minister has shown the way, others will be tempted to investigate and get cases filed against more VIPs. This can only benefit the public in India, where thus far there has been very little accountability in the political class, who have mostly adopted the Maharashtra model While the Mr. Clean mantle is likely to be as much analbatross around A. B. Vajpayee's neck as it was on the otherswho tried to use it, the country may yet benefit from the flurryof investigations that the Muthiah decision will provoke. Nowall that the Congress and other Opposition parties need to do isto get investigated charges against Cabinet ministers, and pressfor a charge-sheet, thus making politics in India as hazardous asit is in the United States.While A. B. Vajpayee’s (large) band of friends may delight inhis Clean image, the voters are more concerned that he becomeMr. Results. Rather than the sublime issues that apparentlyfascinate him so much, the Prime Minister needs to concentrateon basic essentials such as growth and security, For example,Sikander Bakht can privatise key public sector companies,auctioning 76 per cent of the equity to the public and reserving24 per cent to the employees at a heavily subsidised rate.This would give the workers an incentive to support reformof PSUs, rather than see it as a threat. Missile flights should beresumed, while nuclear tests should take place unless the UnitedStates makes available data that can enable a reliable deterrentto be made.A. B. Vajpayee should also begin taking steps to implementthose sections of the BIP manifesto that speak of making lawstransparent and non-oppressive. The Budget should retain a lowdirect tax structure while raising customs duties to the levelssanctioned by the WTO, except in cases where a lower dutypromotes exports. New export processing zones need to becreated in the Northeast and the Andaman islands, while ports,power, roads and other infrastructure should have liberal entryconditions.The state governments should be given discretion in FDI andother project sanctions, while legislative measures need to betaken to prevent delays due to the filing of PILs. These days,most embassies and other agencies have their own stable offriendly NGOs that can file PILs, hold seminars and organizepress conferences to push alien commercial and political interestsclandestinely.Sonia Gandhi's error in backing unpopular leaders and theirpolicies, and Congress's repudiation of its nationalist heritage,has given the Vajpayee government more leeway than newspaperheadlines would indicate.Rather than get lost in philosophical diversions, the PrimeMinister needs to craft a practical agenda for the forthcomingLok Sabha. Only if the country sees him and his team gettingdown to business will it generate for the government the good-will needed to prod Parliament towards passing legislationneeded for prosperity.

Wednesday, 24 November 1999

At long last, Atal appears to be realising that his hand-picked foreign minister's unvarying advocacy of the Washington line may not be in India's best interests. Rather late, but better by far than never. Vajpayee has publicly acknowledged that Bill Clinton is fixated on Islamabad, even when the men in uniform illegally throw out a democratic government. These comments were made on the very day that Jaswant Singh had traveled halfway around the world to get a few hours time with a junior US official, Strobe Talbott, whose close collaboration with the CIA in matters relating to the Soviet Union was no secret to his journalistic colleagues.

After numerous rounds of talks, Washington has -- if anything -- further hardened its stand on India. At every opportunity, as for example to the Turkish parliament, Clinton attacks New Delhi as a threat to peace. Why not petition the Americans to give Jassu the job he is most suited for, that of replacing Dick Celeste as the US ambassador in India? His dear friend Brajesh can move on to Washington and together, the two can complete the job that so many in the past -- ranging from Laxmi Kant Jha to Amar Nath Verma -- tried to do, making India a full foreign policy colony of the US, just as the UK, Australia and Japan are.

Jassu loves going to places where he can meet state department officials, which is why it is surprising that he has found so little time for the Gulf region, a destination swarming with official US visitors. In economic policy the Nehru family stunted India and set it back by 50 years. However, in foreign policy even Rajiv Gandhi devoted considerable attention to this region so crucial for India as both an employer of labour as well as a source for hydrocarbons.

After the Rajiv defeat in 1989, New Delhi has neglected the Gulf. In exchange, India is slowly being forgotten in a region where not long ago the rupee was acceptable tender. Indeed, till the 1960s it was the preferred medium of exchange in countries such as Kuwait. Today, if there is any coherent strategy for fusing India's technological prowess with Gulf capital, Jaswant Singh has kept it a secret. Small wonder that even in nations such as Syria, where a moderate social ethos prevails, even Indian films are slowly becoming rarer. The world's largest democracy figures less in the external calculus of Damascus than even Yemen.

A pity. With the speeding up of the Arab Free Trade Zone, it would be beneficial for Indian companies to locate plants in Syria that could market goods throughout the Gulf region. Today, the US and the EU have virtually monopolised the Arab market. This can change in a decade, if the Government of India were to help companies to get reasonable terms from the Syrians. Not difficult, considering the huge reserves of goodwill present in the country for India, another country seen as pursuing a foreign policy that is 'independent' of the Sole superpower. Clearly, Damascus has not heard of Jassu yet!

This has been said before, but it bears repeating: the talent pool available in the Indian Foreign Service is among the world's best. However, the critical spark is missing, and this is political leadership. Like them or hate them, the Nehru-Krishna Menon team had a clear foreign policy and followed it. Today, 'strategy' is in preparing the menus for state banquets, and in worrying about what dress to wear in the forty-seventh meeting with 'my dear friend Strobe.'

That Talbott and Jassu are 'dear' friends has been revealed to all his minions -- and repeatedly so -- by the Indian foreign minister himself. Just how dear this friendship is becoming to Indian interests is becoming more apparent by the day, as Washington once again pressurises India to help its enemies (the Pakistan army) to gain the strength needed to wreak further harm on local interests.

It would be interesting to compile the 'confidence building measures' that India agreed to under Clinton's pressure, despite a total absence of reciprocity from the Pakistan side. It would not be difficult to calculate the harm done to Indian interests by these one-sided gestures, as for example the spurt in terrorist infiltration after New Delhi thinned frontier posts in the Jammu region in 1993, again as a CBM. And yet, even today there is a pathetic belief that Bill Clinton will end his love for the Pakistani generals, a feeling clearly shared by the most likely candidate to succeed him, George Bush Jr, who believes in the 'stability' of the grave and has welcomed the murder of a democratic government in Pakistan.

Those friends of India in the US who are rushing to fund his campaign need to educate the Texas governor about US history, and how he is insulting the faith of his great republic by conniving at the butchery of democracy in one of the world's most populous countries.

Fortunately, in yet another show of independence from Jassu's 'Follow Clinton' line, Prime Minister Vajpayee has correctly refused to join Washington in singing hosannas for Pervez Musharraf, whose links to the Afghan drug cartels are presumably known even to the CIA. He has insisted on the restoration of democracy in Pakistan, ignoring the chorus of voices who urge a 'business as usual' policy. Hopefully, he will move further along the track of encouraging democracy in Pakistan, aware that only a fully federal, moderate and narcotics-cleansed Pakistan can accept a policy of peace with India.

New Delhi needs to give active support to forces in Pakistan fighting against the military jackboot that has for so long treated Pakistanis not in uniform with contempt. Women, Shias, Mohajirs, Ahmediyas, Hindus, Christians, Balochis, Pashtuns, Seraikis and Sindhis are second-class citizens in that state, and only when they win equality will a climate get formed against the drain of resources towards terrorism and its partner in Pakistan, militarism.

Either the CIA is sleeping on the job, or Bill Clinton does not read its reports. Otherwise, he would have realised that it is the Pakistan army that is protecting Osama bin Laden, for fear that the canary will sing about the opium trade once he falls into US custody. Expect the fugitive onetime ally of the generals to wind up either shot 'accidentally' or suffering a heart attack. He knows too much about the heroin industry and its linkages to the Pakistan elite to be kept alive.

However, seeing the pro-uniformed stand of the US, the generals need not get worried about a change in the US policy of pretending that Pakistan has no control over its servants, the Taliban, whose heroin-related activities bring in so much lucre to the generals. They can, it is clear, rely on Dictator Lover George W Bush to protect their operations as surely as they have on Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

Perhaps in this second innings, Atal Bihari Vajpayee will break free of his hand-picked advisors and set the course for a rational and principled foreign policy that promotes both Indian values and interests. This means a degree of activism in critical regions, even though Jassu's friends may not appreciate this. For example, New Delhi can help Kuwait and Iraq negotiate an end to the issue of the remaining PoWs, that is bedevilling ties between two Arab states and forcing Kuwait to oppose the lifting of sanctions against Iraq.

India can also act as a link between Syria and Israel, as the two adversaries circle one another in an attempt to fashion a peace. New Delhi has diplomatic -- and friendly -- ties with both Tel Aviv and Damascus. Prime Minister Vajpayee can nominate a special envoy who can visit Damascus, Tel Aviv and other capitals and help in the search for peace.

In the past, India saw its responsibilities globally. For example, New Delhi backed the ANC and the PLO at a time when few countries did. It is another matter that Yasser Arafat dumped India and adopted Clinton's anti-India line on Kashmir as soon as the Americans took him on board. Do the right thing, not for gain, but because it is right, says the Gita, which has yet to be included in school curricula in India, because Jawaharlal Nehru (or Lady Mountbatten, it doesn't matter whom) thought it a 'Hindu' rather than an Indian text. In fact, the Gita and the Mahabharata belong to all Indians, of whatever faith.

Only the local 'Hindu' Taliban will oppose M F Husain, for example, drawing on his -- I repeat the word 'his' -- ancient heritage in painting, just as the 'liberal' Taliban oppose the teaching of the Gita and the Mahabharata in Indian schools, preferring the European classics so dear to the Nehrus.

Why this inferiority complex, Atal, that makes us preen when the Indian foreign minister eagerly goes halfway around the world to get lectured by a junior US official? That prevents us from injecting ourselves in regional diplomacy? India is an ally of the democracies, even though the subliminal racists among them may not quite see it that way. The closer the linkages between New Delhi and the Gulf states, the stronger the gravitational pull of moderation rather than the extremism financed by Saudi Arabia, given trained foot soldiers by Pakistan and implemented in Afghanistan.

Contrary to what the 'Hindu' Taliban believes, by and large the Muslim-majority states are free of extremism. Even in the Sheikdoms, it is only in Saudi Arabia that the women are in chains. In both Kuwait and the UAE, Arab women are getting education and equal opportunity. In Kuwait the Emir has come out in favour of universal suffrage, even though fanatics are seeking to prevent ratification of the Royal decree.

Across the border, in Riyadh, Arab women are mobilising in favour of equal treatment. Universal education and employment for women will be the best antidote against Pakistan-style fanaticism, which says that Muslims should live separately from the rest of the community to 'maintain their purity'.

In this process, India can export teachers and even turnkey educational institutions. It is unfortunate that modern education in India has been shackled by restrictions that prevent the development of world-class facilities that are self-financing. If educationists are permitted to open medical, engineering and technical colleges that finance themselves by stiff fees changed to international students (fees that are much lower than the US or Australia), then billions of dollars can be earned each year. Sadly, policy has thus far worked in the reverse direction, stopping such enrollment or limiting it to unviable levels. HRD Minister MM Joshi needs to change such a mindset.

If India is an eagle, the head reaches into the CIS states that were formerly part of the USSR, and one wing touches the Gulf, with the other spanning the ASEAN states. A leg abuts into the south of Africa, while the other touches Australia. The core is, of course, the SAARC region, with Myanmar and Afghanistan as future members of this group. The only recalcitrant is Pakistan, with its Lahore fanatics now hiding behind a Mohajir mask.

Should that country not make peace with India, it is likely to splinter, as the non-fanatic provinces decide that it is better to break away rather than be sacrificed on the altar of a war mandated by the narcotics mafia, which needs to cloak itself in religious hues to escape public attention and odium. After that, the broken-away provinces can -- as did Bangladesh -- establish ties with India.

Prem Shankar Jha is a genius but even he can be sometimes wrong, as he was on the impact of US sanctions and now when he writes of the 'catastrophe' facing India if Pakistan 'fails'. Pakistan has already failed. It would be better for both its tortured people as well as the region if this fact were accepted, and bridges built 1970 and 1986-style with those within that territory that are working to create zones of freedom and moderation from the ruins of fanaticism. Atal Bihari Vajpayee appears slowly to be moving away from the Jaswant Singhs in accepting this reality, and for this he deserves praise. Now, Atal, give us an Indian foreign minister!

Monday, 15 November 1999

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Although there has lately been a fair amount of comment aboutthe linkage between the coming assembly polls in AndhraPradesh and Karnataka and the future of the Prime Minister, itwould be accurate to say that the elections will determine theCongress party’s future as well. Political bandwagons roll downas well as up, and a defeat in these two states would have aripple effect on the polls in six states scheduled for early 1995.A poor showing there would affect the results of the parliamentarypoll that would follow soon after.As realisation of the danger of throwing the baby out withthe bathwater dawns on the faction leaders in the ruling party,a more united effort can be expected. In any election, the lastthree weeks are usually crucial in determining the result, andlast-minute unity will, therefore, efface much of the negativeperceptions created by continual Congress bickering. However,as yet there is little sign of such unity. Senior leaders of the rulingparty in key states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are lookingat the coming assembly polls as affecting mainly the PrimeMinister and are, therefore, delinking themselves from themwhen pressing for strategies in their respective states.In place of efforts at building up a pan—Indian base, thesedays almost all leaders in the party are focusing on regional voteA banks. Thus, for example, Sharad Pawar is concentrating onMaharashtra and Arjun Singh on the Hindi belt. Implicitly, it isbeing assumed that the era of powerful national leaders isdrawing to a close, and that the future will witness coalitions ofpowerful regional leaders within the Congress party in themanner of the 1966-69 'Syndicate'. The only stumbling block in such a course is the Prime Minister himself, who has built up apan-Indian image for himself.Should the ruling party lose in Andhra Pradesh andKarnataka, however, the Prime Minister would find his influencewithin his party severely limited. The Congress cadres have everdisplayed a propensity to supinely follow a leader, provided thathe or she can pull them to electoral success. After electiondefeats, however, defections are common. There was an army oftop leaders who broke away from Indira Gandhi, not when civilliberties were demolished during the Emergency, but immediatelyafterwards, when the Congress party lost the 1977 parliamentarypolls. At the state level, even charismatic Congress leaders suchas Karnataka’s Devraj Urs found their flock deserting them soonafter an electoral defeat. Should the assembly polls go badly forthe ruling party, Narasimha Rao would get reduced from thenational leader of his party to a faction leader.Recent electoral results have shown the importance ofindividual candidates in elections. In the assembly polls thattook place in some Hindi-belt states less than a year ago, theCongress party did badly in those seats where considerationsother than electoral merit guided the selection of candidates. InDelhi and Rajasthan especially, many seats were lost becauserelations and cronies of leaders were preferred over genuineparty workers in ticket distribution. This was pointed out by theJanardhan Reddy committee set up by the AICC to analyse thepoll results.However, the behaviour of Congress leaders in the statesgoing to the polls a month hence indicates that no lesson hasbeen learnt.This is, especially marked in Karnataka, where senior partyleaders are vying with one another in promoting the names offriends and cronies for assembly tickets. A union minister wantstickets for both his son-in-law and his son, while a former chiefminister is threatening to leave the party unless his son is giventhe ticket (his son-in—law is already an MP). Apart from their ownrelations, each Karnataka leader — armed with lists of hangers-on in each constituency — is fighting the others in promoting thecause of their acolytes.After the Congress lost power to the Janata party in 1983 inKarnataka, it swept the state in the 1984 parliamentary polls.Smelling victory, the Congress leaders of the state crammed thelist of candidates for the 1985 assembly polls with hangers-on.The result was a second humiliating defeat at the hands of theJanata party, which had been far more selective in the choice ofcandidates. Looking at the scrimmage now going on for ticketsin Karnataka, it looks as though 1985 may get repeated. That is,unless the Prime Minister steps in and ruthlessly allocates ticketson the basis of prospects of victory.Although at first glance the splintered opposition in bothAndhra Pradesh and Karnataka may appear to benefit theCongress party — with the BJP, the Janata Dal and the BangarappaCongress fighting with each other in Karnataka and the TeluguDesam, the BJP and BSP at war with each other in AndhraPradesh — in reality anti-Congress voters may decide to clubtogether and choose the candidate who seems most likely todefeat the ruling party. This could reduce the Congress tally inboth states to a level below the majority it presently enjoys.However, should the Congress party field voter-friendlycandidates, the negative impact of the anti-Congress feelings inthe two southern states could get counter-balanced.It would be too much to expect from the state leaders of theCongress to give up their ingrained habit of promoting croniesand relations. Unless the Prime Minister himself intervenes tocurb the nepotistic tendencies of his flock, the going for his party— and for himself — is unlikely to be smooth.

Saturday, 13 November 1999

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D.
Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Sitaram Kesri's generous promise to Prime Minister Gujral thathe would not be disturbed for another year begs the question oflikely developments within the Janata Dal, Should there be anattempted palace coup within the ruling party, then Congresssupport may not be enough.Indeed, it is this very support that has created enemies forGujral within the Janata Dal. While H. D. Deve Gowda hadattempted to create a Karnataka-model non-Congress electoralalliance at the national level, the present Prime Minister has beentext book correct in his dealings with the party, refusing to getinvolved in its internal dissensions. This does not suit those whowould like to see a straight fight between the BJP and the non-Congress ruling parties in the next elections, with the Congressvirtually eliminated by dissensions and splits.The embryo of the future can already be discerned. The leadposition is still with the BJP, its handicap being the narrownessof its support among other formations. The second contender isthe collection of regional and "national" parties (almost all withclearly-defined regional bases) now in national office. Bringingup the rear is a weakening Congress party, with its national votefalling below the 30 per cent level for the first time.While the conventional wisdom is that a combination of thenon-BJP parties can prevent that party from doing well, the factis that such an amalgamation may in fact benefit the saffronites.For example, anti-Congress voters may switch to the BJP ratherthan vote for a Congress nominee in constituencies where the“secular alliance" has given the seat to that party.In the same way, supporters of regional parties may balk atvoting for the Congress if asked to do so by their chieftains, andmay support the BJP or its allies instead. Conversely, hardcoreCongress supporters may refuse to back regional groups, evenif asked to do so by the AICC.Within the Congress, there are two strands of thought: thefirst is the "messiah" school, which holds that the entry of SoniaGandhi will so galvanise the electorate that it will jettison otherloyalties to bring back the Nehru family raj. While there existsa keen competition among Congress worthies for the title of"First Follower" (of Sonia Gandhi), Arjun Singh appears thenatural choice for this honour. This group would like SoniaGandhi to take over the leadership formally and then beginworking her magic.The second is the "realist" group, which recognises thechanges that have come about in the psyche of voters since 1947.This segment, working under the direction of Sitaram Kesri,has two strategies: first, to position the Congress as the mainopposition in as many states as possible, even if in the processJD or CPM feathers get ruffled. Thus the Narasimha Rao policyof indulgence to old friend Jyoti Basu has been given up infavour of the Dasmunshi-Banerjee line of attack on the LeftFront, both in Bengal and Kerala.It is hoped that this will result in a doubling of Lok Sabhaseats from these two states. A problem area is Gujarat, where theVaghela ministry may be having adverse repercussions on theCongress base.While targeting both the BJP and the Left parties as enemies,the Congress strategy is to take away as many groups as possiblefrom the anti-Congress "secular" formation, now led by HarkishanSingh Surjeet and H. D. Deve Gowda. Thus both Mulayam SinghYadav and Kanshi Ram are being wooed in Uttar Pradesh, LalooYadav in Bihar and privately Jayalalitha or the TMC in TamilNadu. A quick calculation is that the Congress can secure over220 seats on its own should enough of such alliances fructify.The “messiah" group is attempting to create the impressionthat without a Nehru family member (even one born in Italy) theCongress cannot do well. They are pointing to the 1984 successof the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi, though others say that inthat post-assassination mood, even Pranab Mukherjee wouldhave been able to engineer a massive win for the then rulingparty.Privately, many high-level Congress functionaries admitthat in the emerging political culture, dynastic logic does notwork. Further, that ugly comments about the lengthy foreignstays of the Gandhi family siblings and the business dealings offriends and relatives may in fact hurt the party’s interests.However, in public they join in the chorus of Sonia Lao DeshBachao.In fact, while the vote-getting abilities of Sonia Gandhi maybe an untested proposition, what is clear is that a party where sheplays a dominant role will be much less able to attract supportfrom other formations. For every Moopanar who compares herto Annie Besant, there is a Ramkrishna Hedge who says that onlya democratised Congress will become a worthwhile poll partner.Just as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad is acting as a dampener onthe efforts of the BJP to attract allies, the Sonia factor is scaringaway formations from the Congress.It is also preventing the party from an honest introspectioninto just why it has slipped so badly. Such an exercise wouldshow that the creation of a family dictatorship and the adoptionof policies that were tailored to personal needs were primaryfactors behind the collapse.Unless the Congress party can fashion a new India-relevantplatform, in which it marries nationalist goals to the needs of aglobalised market economy, it is unlikely to evoke resonancewithin the electorate. By chasing after saviours, the party office·bearers are distancing themselves even further from the demandsof the new electorate.

Monday, 1 November 1999

Tax records in Spain and Italy document the sudden increase in the wealth of three families, the Valdemoros, the Vincis and the Mainos. Sadly, both Walter Vinci and Jose Valdemoro decided that they needed new wives more in sync with their rise in status, and freed themselves from dear Nadia and Annouschka, sisters of Sonia Maino, the Hope of India's Millions.

Today, all three reside happily in the cramped 12,000 square feet living quarters provided for them by the Government of India. In view of the family's services in bringing to India oil pipelines, fertiliser factories and other goodies via dear, dear Maria and Ottavio, Sonia and her relatives enjoy cars, telephones and other services paid for by the affluent country that they have made their own. Uncle Atal has wisely decided not to inform the Indian taxpayers just how much is being spent on the Mainos by the taxpayer. After all, a clamour may go up that the money spent is insufficient!

How lucky that Uncle Atal -- so dear a friend of Uncle Gopi and Uncle Shri back home in London -- is around. He has ensured that Gopi Arora, who knows more about Bofors than any other living being, has not been disturbed by chargesheets or enquiries. And unless Arora is made to turn approver, by tempting him with the prospect of a year as a State guest, there is zero chance that actual convictions will ensue in the Bofors case.

After spreading canards that President Narayanan was ''shielding'' the guilty in the gun deal by ''refusing'' sanction to prosecute, it transpires that it is Uncle Atal who is shielding Gopi Arora from confessing. Who cares that these flawed and inadequate chargesheets will not hold water in court?

However, just as a Swedish radio station broke the veil on Bofors, who knows what other accidents may not take place to disrupt the plans to ensure that the guilty of Bofors escape? Armaments deals are a source of several political, bureaucratic and (now) service fortunes, and none of these worthies would like to see a precedent get set of accountability. As General Malik's purchase-filled sojourn in South Africa demonstrates, deals of the Bofors genre are getting done every week at a defence headquarters cleared of those who ask inconvenient questions.

The example of Admiral Bhagwat is there to scare away any officer from making enquiries into the quality of the equipment ordered from dubious foreign and domestic sources. So long as George Fernandes does not make the process of selection transparent and professional, a few bigwigs will be able to rig the orders, just as they have been doing for decades. As an admirer of George -- who follows his convictions with courage even if most of them are wrong! -- this columnist is disappointed at the defence minister's reluctance to make the changes in the functioning of his ministry that are essential for the future. Hopefully this 'Don't rock the boat' attitude will get replaced by traditional Fernandes activism.

A dear friend of many VVIPs in Delhi -- Mian Nawaz Sharief -- is now in ''protective custody'' in Pakistan. There is no need for worthies on this side of the border to worry that details of the many sweetheart deals entered into between Mian Saheb and his friends in India will get exposed by the Pakistan army.

Bill Clinton will ensure that the generals in Pakistan obey his order to avoid embarrassing friends of his in both Islamabad and New Delhi with revelations of the sugar and other deals. There have been rumours swirling around that Mian Saheb financed at least two political leaders in India during the 1998 election, calculating that they would return to power.

As with other Sharief hypotheses, neither of the two got Cabinet posts after the election, thanks to the 1998 arithmetic differing from 1996. If Pervez Musharraf were to reveal details of such transactions, he would be doing a service to the subcontinent. However, as the general is as tightly controlled by Washington as he himself controls the Taliban, such transparency is unlikely.

Uncle Atal's handpicked foreign policy team -- closet Nehruvians to a man -- are feeling queasy at the collapse of the pretence that their skills have led to the United States accepting India's position, while in fact what has happened is that they have made New Delhi a US satellite in matters of foreign policy. After all the compromises, Washington continues to strain at the leash in its eagerness to shower Pakistan with armaments. New Delhi is being told for the four hundredth time -- to chop off its arm so as to strengthen Pakistan to make fresh attacks.

It is American arms and assistance that emboldened Islamabad to be so intransigent against the world's largest democracy, a fact that the Clinton administration does not want to acknowledge, met as they are by fawning Indian interlocuters eager to genuflect. Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh -- for example -- is in a tizzy of delight at being favoured with talks by Strobe Talbott, a junior official. Would Hubert Vedrine of France, Robin Cook of Britain or Joscka Fisher of Germany tolerate a series of meetings with anyone other than their US counterpart, Madeleine Albright, herself?

It takes a slave's mind and vision to actually feel honoured that a junior officer is deigning to meet with the external affairs minister of the world's largest democracy, or that Karl Inderfurth (who has the status of a joint secretary) spent time with India's Principal Secretary to the PM-cum-National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra, who went scurrying off to the US just after the poll.

Every now and then there are howls from Secular Fundamentalists about the ''vice-like grip'' of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh over the Vajpayee government. The unrestrained ability of the Brajesh-Jaswant duo to replace a Union of Soviet Socialist Republic-satellite foreign policy with a US-satellite one indicates that the RSS has less influence over Vajpayee than even his domestic staff.

Under this team, India has effectively conceded Pakistan occupied Kashmir to Pakistan (sans any concession in return), secretly slowed down its missile and nuclear weapons programme, instituted a policy of confining a riposte to Pakistani adventurism to the Line of Control rather than meeting it all along the border with that rogue state, and concentrating 90 per cent of the ministry of external affairs's attention on ways of coddling the most anti-Indian US president since Richard Nixon, a man moreover who is a lame duck in his own country, unable to get his way on major issues.

It is nauseating to watch the Vajpayee team beg Clinton to visit India, often on television, as Jaswant Singh so frequently does, talking of the ''president's visit'' without any qualifying words indicating that he means the head of another country, not his own. For the pleasure of watching Bubba gorge himself on tandoori cooking, it would be interesting to note the concessions that the Mishra-Jaswant duo have agreed to, especially on security-related issues.

Clinton's fondness for the jehadis has once again become clear from his support to Chechen insurgents in Russia. Washington wants the territory to become free, East Timor style, to encourage friends such as the Musharrafs. This is why it is so anxious to halt the Russian army from finishing off the illegal Chechen state.

In India, Bill Clinton has ensured that his diplomats in Delhi routinely encourage agents of Islamabad such as the Hurriyat Conference in their task of vivisecting India. The Hurriyat few are always given a sympathetic hearing by the Clinton team, whether in Srinagar, Delhi or Washington.

Today, the cacophony of voices in the White House demanding more pressure on India to destroy itself to satiate the bloodlust of the generals is becoming deafening, and is getting reflected in the fact that Pakistan continues to get World Bank and International Monetary Fund loans while Indian requests are being blocked. Clinton's attempt at derailing the Indian economy and sabotaging its defenses are being met by further begging by New Delhi for Bubba to visit India and kick it around some more.

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About Prof. M. D. Nalapat

Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat (aka MD Nalapat or Monu Nalapat), holds the UNESCO Peace Chair and is Director of the Department of Geopolitics at Manipal Academy of Higher Education, India. The former Coordinating Editor of the Times of India, he writes extensively on security, policy and international affairs. Prof. Nalapat has no formal role in government, although he is said to influence policy at the highest levels. @MD_Nalapat

MD Nalapat's anthology 'Indutva' (1999)

In 1999, Har-Anand published Indutva an anthology of MD Nalapat's 1990s columns from the Times of India. The individual columns are posted here, in 1998 and 1999 of the blog archive, though the exact dates of publication are uncertain.