Unless Congress acts in the next 8 legislative days, $85 billion in across-the-board sequestration spending cuts will take effect March 1. The cuts will reduce domestic programs by 5.1 percent and defense by 8 percent, but since they come in the middle of the fiscal year the impact is closer to 9 percent for nondefense and 13 percent for defense programs. Most agencies foresee 14-day furloughs for employees and layoffs for new hires; meat inspection, customs and law enforcement will be cut back, impeding public safety and economic growth.

President Barack Obama and Republican leaders in Congress say they oppose sequestration and would substitute other means for deficit reduction. The President would cut other spending and raise revenues. Republicans would cut other spending but oppose new taxes. The standoff and calendar makes sequestration 99 percent likely to take effect.

Sequestration probably has a beneficial long-term impact by slowing debt, although the short-term drag on the economy will harm jobs and growth. Because agencies are operating on 2012 funding levels, their ability to transfer money among accounts to protect key personnel or programs is constrained.

The President and congressional Republicans will seek to saddle one another with blame for the short-term chaos. The budget will only be a part of the discussion, however, as Republicans and Democrats seek to spotlight more solvable policy problems. The issue dynamic gives hope to advocates for immigration reform and expanded background checks for firearms purchases.

Representatives will seek to cancel a March pay hike for federal employees that is doomed in the Senate. At week’s end, Congress will adjourn for the Presidents Day recess to return February 25.