Barnsley Central By Election Survey For The Mail On Sunday

The Mail On Sunday’s article on this survey by Glen Owen can be found here;

An overview of our accuracy in Barnsley Central and information on vote transference can be found here;

Fieldwork dates: February 24th – February 25th

Interview Method: Telephone.

Population sampled: Adults 18+ registered to vote in Barnsley Central

Sampling Method: Within the parliamentary constituency of Barnsley Central registered voters with were targeted in a balanced way across the wards of Barnsley Central, Darton East, Darton West, Kingstone, Monk Bretton, Old Town, Royston and St Helens.

Sample size: 507

Data Weighting:

The four weightings used were based on gender, age, past vote and an adjustment made for postal voting registration.

Younger voters were overweighted and older voters underweighted due to the younger demographic being under-represented in our polling base verses recent census data.

Based on the past voting patterns in the 2010 general election, the Labour vote was over-represented in our sample hence Labour voters were underweighted and the other parties were overweighted. Finally, responders who indicated that they had registered for postal voting were overweighted slightly to represent an increased likelihood of voting.

These weightings were combined with an adjustment based on the response to the question regarding likelihood of voting, where interviewed voters were asked to state their likelihood to vote on a scale of 1 to 10.

Questions

Below, each question in full and the order in which they were put to respondents;

1) Are you aware that there is a by election taking place here on March 3rd?

2) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the most likely. How likely would you say you are you to vote?

3) For which of the following candidates (or undecided) are you most likely to vote? (answer order rotates)

Applying the weightings described above to the data, and removing the responders who did not express their voting intentions gives the following results:

Dan Jarvis (Labour)

66%

Jane Collins (UKIP)

11%

James Hockney (Conservative)

11%

Others

6%

Enis Dalton (BNP)

5%

Dominic Carman (Liberal Democrats)

2%

Finally, allocating those undecided voters to the party they said they voted for in the general election of 2010 gave the following results:

Published Vote Intention Figures;

Dan Jarvis (Labour)

63%

James Hockney (Conservative)

13%

Jane Collins (UKIP)

9%

Dominic Carman (Liberal Democrats)

6%

Another Party

5%

Enis Dalton (BNP)

4%

How have voters changed their views of the main parties in Barnsley Central since the General Election?

Labour can be assured of the majority of their support from the 2010 General election (based on 185 responses)

The Conservatives can be less sure of their 2010 support than Labour, 55% of those questioned who voted Conservative at the General Election say they will again. (based on 40 responses)

The Liberal Democrats’ supporters from the general election primarily have switched to Labour, with another large group undecided. If these previous Liberal Democrat voters who are undecided do not as we have modeled largely vote Lib Dem again the Lib Dems are in danger of coming 4th. (Based on 35 responses).

Further information

Full data tables will be available at a later date. If you have any questions about this survey or are interested in commissioning Survation, please contact researchteam@survation.com

Statistical work was supervised by Head of Statistics Stuart Jackaman (Oxon) stuart.jackaman@survation.com with contribution from Ieuan Ferrer at The University of York.