I don't claim to have psychic powers, but I'm more than willing to take a stab at predicting the future of the 2007-2008 broadcast season by looking backwards at the 2006-2007 season.

Let's take a look at the final 18-49 viewership ranking for shows in the 2006-2007 season compared with their ranking after the 3rd week of the season (which was Oct 2-8, 2006).

18-49 STD Rank on 5/27/07

Show

Network

18-49 STD Rank on 10/8/06

1

AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY

FOX

2

AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY

FOX

3

HOUSE

FOX

6

4

GREY'S ANATOMY

ABC

1

5

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES

ABC

2

6

NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NBC

5

7

CSI

CBS

3

8

LOST

ABC

4

9

HEROES

NBC

11

10

DANCING WITH THE STARS

ABC

13

11

SURVIVOR: COOK ISLANDS

CBS

8

12

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

9

13

DANCING W/THE STARS-MON

ABC

14

SURVIVOR: FIJI

CBS

15

24

FOX

16

DANCING W/STARS RESULTS

ABC

17

OT, THE

FOX

17

18

E.R.

NBC

7

19

DANCING W/STARS RESULT-TU

ABC

20

EXTREME MAKEOVER:HOME ED.

ABC

10

Several things jump out at me:

1. Except for 24, which was an established hit show with a traditional mid-season start date, no scripted show that wasn't in the top 20 by the 3rd week of the season made it there, and 7 of the second 10 fell off the list by the end of the season.

2. Primarily because of the double-night juggernaut of American Idol, almost no shows moved up in position after the third week that were already on the list. Exceptions being House and Heroes, last seasons biggest new series hit.

(1) for scripted shows, if you're not in the STD top 20 by the 3rd week, it's unlikely you're going to get there, either by moving up or being introduced mid-season, and (2) unless American Idol stumbles, your STD position on week 3 is falling by the end of season.

3. Six of the seven shows that made the STD top 20 after not having been in the list on week 3 were reality/non-scripted shows.

Mid-season reality shows do stand a chance of cracking the STD top 20.

Let's shift to fortunetelling the current season. Where will the current Season to Date 18-49 top 20 be at the end of the season in May?

This is an interesting prediction, but perhaps you should revisit and revise the list three weeks from the mid-season. You left out “24” and other anticipated series lauching in mid-season. This is a well-thought out prediction, however, and will be curious of the actual results.

http://www.PDTreasures.com Geonsey

This is an interesting prediction, but perhaps you should revisit and revise the list three weeks from the mid-season. You left out “24” and other anticipated series lauching in mid-season. This is a well-thought out prediction, however, and will be curious of the actual results.