Scanlan: True cost of losing Daniel Alfredsson coming into focus

Among the many interesting disclosures made by the Senators in their True Confessions wrap-up session Tuesday was an admission that letting Daniel Alfredsson get away was a grave mistake.

I know, I know, Ottawa fans could have told them that months ago. Still, to admit this while the wounds were fresh from missing the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs was rather stunning. The way general manager Bryan Murray framed the remark verged on the biblical (a rooster crows three times, etc.), as though the player-friendly hockey gods were getting back at him.

“Three times in my career, this type of incident has happened to me,” Murray told media in his post-season address.

“Stu Barnes, in Florida, we lost him after we went to the Stanley Cup final. It was all about a contract at that time and we didn’t have a very good year next year. I had Paul Kariya in Anaheim, had a deal done, and on the last day he went to Colorado for $1.2 million. And I lost Daniel Alfredsson.

“Following each year, (the result) was the same as it is today. We know that these people have influence in the room and on the ice, and it would be wrong if I said (Alfredsson) didn’t have an impact on what happened here.”

Since we’re on the subject … the cost of letting Alfredsson get away as a free agent last summer was enormous, with the benefit of time to reflect. Cost in every sense of the word: financial cost, goodwill, and the chance to lock in the first legacy player in franchise history.

Let’s play the “what if” game for a second.

What if they had signed Alfredsson back in 2012, when he went to the team seeking an extension on his final season. On that front-loaded contract, he was only earning $1 million in the final year, 2012-13, with a cap hit of $4.875 million. His intent was to blend that final year with one more.

As Alfredsson told us last August from the Royal Ottawa Mental Health Centre, talks “went nowhere,” and he proceeded to play out his contract, earning $1 million as captain of a Senators team that upset the Montreal Canadiens in Round 1 of the playoffs before falling to the Pittsburgh Penguins in five games.

Not once did Alfredsson grumble publicly in 2012-13 about earning less than half the average NHL salary, while performing his captain’s duties with dignity and class.

When that season ended, however, and free agency beckoned, there was little chance he was going to sign back with Ottawa, particularly since there was something of a war brewing between Senators ownership/management and agent J.P. Barry, who was also Dany Heatley’s agent.

Setting aside the blame game, suppose the Senators had settled on an extension with Alfredsson at terms both sides could tolerate.

With Alfredsson in the room and on the ice for another season, does anyone doubt the Senators would have come up with the extra five or six points needed to nail down the final wild card position in the Eastern Conference?

That Alfredsson can still play is evidenced by his numbers – 18 goals and 49 points in 68 games – with a Red Wings team that was missing Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg for much of the season.

In Ottawa, Alfredsson’s contribution would have extended far beyond statistics.

With Alfredsson, centre Jason Spezza could have focused on just playing hockey, in a lesser leadership role, without feeling as though he carried the weight of the world as the new captain of a young team struggling to close the gap against the playoff squads.

With Alfredsson, defenceman Erik Karlsson could have had his mentor present during a time of personal and professional adjustment, including recovery from the sliced Achilles suffered in February of 2013. Think back to February and the Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia, where the myriad images of Alfredsson and Karlsson on and off the ice for Sweden reflected a bond that didn’t have to be broken.

On his own in Ottawa, Karlsson struggled at times, admitting he dearly missed his former teammates and friends – Alfredsson, Peter Regin and Jakob Silfverberg.

Now, imagine a Senators team that qualified for the first round of the playoffs, with a chance to upset a higher seed. Considering the Senators take in more than $1 million in revenues per playoff game, it’s easy to see how the club lost millions by not having any home playoff dates.

Then, add in the blow to season ticket sales by not having the playoffs as a marketing springboard. In his game presentation of the positive strides made by the club this season, president Cyril Leeder admitted it hurts not having the playoffs to stir fan passions and fan dollars.

A short-term cost saving doesn’t always pay off over the long term. While saving money due to a contract impasse with Alfredsson, the Senators paid dearly within a year, and the impact lingers.

That’s why it was fascinating to hear the club own up to the fact that Alfredsson’s departure was a significant factor in a lost season.