Trending down: Flu season takes early spike, but could be nearing end

Missouri may have seen the worst of the 2013 flu season with signs pointing to a potential early peak and decline more than a month ahead of the usual peak in February.

In Adair County, residents are reporting far fewer cases of influenza infection thus far in January than they did in December, another positive sign the worst may be over.

"Is the spike early or will there be another increase?" said Jim LeBaron, voicing the question on many health officials' minds in Missouri.

All signs point to a significant drop in the number of reported cases of influenza across Missouri, well ahead of the season's usual peak in February. And that drop is reflected locally, but it leads officials, like Jane Wheeler, health services director for the Kirksville School District, to worry if there will be either a longer or later surge in flu cases.

"We've been very lucky so far," Wheeler said Wednesday.

The R-III has seen mostly cases of the norovirus, commonly referred to as the stomach flu, and its associated symptoms of vomiting, diarrhea and nausea, but relatively few actual flu cases.

"We had a big spike of norovirus before Christmas, but we have yet to see those high fevers," Wheeler said.

Those high fevers, along with muscle aches and chills, are trademarks of the flu.

"It's the sudden onset," Wheeler said, describing flu symptoms versus the norovirus. "They feel horrible. When someone has a flu versus a cold, it's a huge difference. You can see it in them."

Wheeler said for last Friday, only about 2 percent of the district's about 2,600 students were out sick for the day, a lower number for this point in the year.

"It could be much worse than it is," she said.

The season so far has been particularly widespread across Missouri, with the majority of cases reported in the larger urban centers and in southeast Missouri. For the second week of January, the state Department of Health and Senior Services reported there were outbreaks of influenza or increases in cases in at least half of the state.

Locally, Adair County saw its spike in reported cases of influenza in December, with about 40 cases reported to the federal Centers for Disease Control, compared to 10 such cases in November and six cases so far in January.

Plotted on a chart, both Adair County and Missouri's flu cases reflect an upward trend through the end of the year and a significant decline during January. In the past six years, the earliest such peak was seen 2007-08 during the H1N1 flu season. That season peaked in October with about 6,000 reported cases. So far for 2012-13, the peak has been around 2,600 cases.

Despite signs the season may be easing, LeBaron and health department R.N. Lory Guffey advised residents it's not too late to get a vaccine and to practice healthy habits such as covering coughs and sneezes and sanitizing common surfaces like counters, keyboards and door handles.

In particular, anyone that is around youth or the elderly should especially get the vaccine due to the higher risks for infection among those groups.

"The very young immune systems are not developed and when we get older, our immune systems don't handle things as well," Guffey said. "The flu can also lead to complications like pneumonia."

She said 17 people were vaccinated at the health department Wednesday, while LeBaron noted that there is still a supply of shots available, despite some difficulty in obtaining enough for the area after dispensing more than 3,500 shots during the months leading up to winter.

"That's all we were able to get," LeBaron said of the department's about 40 individual vaccines left. The department will order more at the end of January.

Local retailers and pharmacies also offer the vaccine, but supplies have dwindled to the point Wal-Mart no longer offers the shot and will not until this upcoming fall. Both Hy-Vee and Walgreens still offered the vaccine as of Wednesday afternoon.

And despite difficulties in obtaining the vaccine, the shot itself has been effective and was successfully formulated with the specific flu strains that are striking across the nation, the CDC reported.

Of the 10 specific strains of influenza, nine were included in the 2012-13 vaccine for North America.