The world will soon experience a calamity unparalleled in human history. As global environmental crises mount, increasing the demand for energy resources, we will be confronted with a rapid decrease in availability of the cheap resource which has fueled the rise of the modern economy and the information age. We will be forced, in a very short time, to abandon the oil economy.

EcoSystems is promoting NOPEC -- Non-Oil Power Exporting Communities -- to help create a viable world beyond oil. Is there any other way to meet the challenge?

While solar energy applications are well understood on a piecemeal or incremental basis, there is little or no modern experience with integrated human settlements based on solar energy. Such experience can be valuable: especially in the continental USA, the yield per effort for new oil exploration will soon reach the energy break-even point. (At break-even, it takes a barrel of oil in exploratory drilling and pumping effort to yield a barrel of new oil for consumption. A new barrel of oil is one which did not previously belong to discovered reserves.) We have an increasingly uncomfortable condition emerging. In this context, a modest demonstration of solar sufficiency can have dramatic impact.

Our objective is to expand solar system applications beyond the HOUSE or industrial/commercial BUILDING to include consideration of all major infrastructure elements in a community. To encourage conventional developers to follow suit, EcoSystems and Altas are creating demonstration projects to include solar powered housing and transportation, advanced communications, recycling of water and waste, and non-petrochemical urban agriculture. The objective is to create a non-oil based community which ultimately will produce sufficient energy to export surplus power. This will require use of new technology, as well as economic self-reliance, to be accomplished with a multi-faceted employment base, including factories deriving energy from solar array "farms", telecommuting to reduce transportation requirements directly, and, by the nature of the project, strong emphasis upon education and R&D.

"Long range" in a society which sets its targets for quarterly corporate financial reports is perhaps not 50 years. And yet, the structures built in the next few years will certainly endure 50 years and longer.

What will our environment be like 50 years from now? For that matter, what will we find even 10 years from now? Recent research indicates that, in either time horizon, the planet may experience environmental disasters and resource depletions of unparalleled proportions.

As one feels the burden of dealing with the complex and increasingly overwhelming array of environmental crises, it is confusing to know what one individual can do. America and much of the industrial world is presently being spared the inconvenience and suffering from symptoms of our mismanagement of the planet's resources. These symptoms have surfaced in the developing world -- notably rain-forest destruction and desertification, which lead in turn to depravation and starvation. And yet, it is clear that such issues impact on everyone. But where does one start? If, for example, your urgent passion is to save the rain-forests, is it better that you go to the fringes of the Sahara Desert and begin a tree-planting project, or is it better to stay in the industrial world and lobby for legislation against importing exotic hardwoods from the Amazon?

One thing is clear: there is a significant net flow of goods from the impoverished and needy developing world to the wealthy and well-endowed industrial world. The resultant affluence may seem to be a benefit to the citizens of the industrial world. But affluence commands its price. Hard goods, whether derived from cheap foreign sources or more expensive domestic raw materials, are being produced by factories with toxic outfall, consumed and ultimately channeled into solid waste operations -- "land fills" -- at an awesome rate. Air pollution is unhealthy, even if it comes from more and fancier cars which have better pollution control equipment. Sitting in a traffic jam is a waste of time for the affluent and for the poor alike.

This is written in the context of the California experience, where population growth has been extraordinary in recent times, and is likely to continue unabated. In California, new construction is in full swing, based on the assumptions of unlimited fossil fuels and the good life. These assumptions are being challenged by economic realities which push the lower income segment of the population into progressively less tenable circumstances. And, these assumptions are being challenged by environmental realities as well. If today there is not a line at the gas pump, we know by simply looking up at the smoggy sky that we aren't doing everything right. In this context there are two major viewpoints which might shape future real estate development:

Business as usual. Dramatic growth was the approach to economics taken by an earlier generation in the USA. Much of current politics and most current land use policies reflect the assumption that growth will work its magic to solve economic problems in this generation as well.

Sustainability. Enduring community vitality is possible by applying a "continuing process of economic and social development ... that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." [Global Tomorrow Coalition, 1989] The compelling need of our generation, for the sake of our children, is to achieve a sustainable culture.

Sustainability

Extensive innovation is necessary to create sustainability. Funding for such innovation is subject to decisions made in the marketplace. That is, the impetus for building for a sustainable future will come as a consequence of a growing constituency, as a result of environmental changes taking place. NOPEC (Non-Oil, Power-Exporting Communities) was conceived to show citizens and leaders in our broader community what they have to gain by realizing this transformation -- from immediate gratification to taking responsibility for the needs of future generations. From Citizen to Community to City to Country, by definition, we will soon become a sustainable culture or we will face extinction as we join the ranks of endangered species. Our challenge is to find ways to adapt while preserving the best that modern technology has brought to us.

GOALS AND RATIONALE

As the character of NOPEC is being defined, many questions are raised: What are the guiding principles? Where will it be built? When will it happen? Who will participate? How can it be accomplished within the economic realities of our culture?

What are the goals for NOPEC?

Our goals are:

to move towards development of a non-oil power-exporting community as an important step toward the global non-oil economy;

to fully apply the state of the art, employing the best commercially available technology, while creating an early opportunity for many suppliers to offer innovative and environmentally sophisticated products; and

to demonstrate sustainability. Self-sufficiency is a path which can preserve the American dream of "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." Dependence on foreign oil or foreign capital (trade deficits) won't suffice for long. Self-reliance is more than an admirable personal trait. It must be embodied in our institutions as well.

Why do it?

Our rationale for the NOPEC alternative is:

Our confidence in progress for its own sake (unrestrained advances in technology) has been shaken;

Genetic diversity -- It's good to have a backup in human settlement patterns, just as we argue for diversity in non-human biological ecosystems (experimentation provides us some choices as the old ways break down); and

Ultimately, we can achieve more with less -- it will cost less (both in terms of energy consumption and economic measures) and it will be worth more to the residents.

ADDRESSING MAJOR QUESTIONS

Where will it happen?

The NOPEC team is involved in various stages of development, ranging from negotiations for site acquisition, to permit approvals, to development financing, for several parcels in Northern California ranging in size from 10 to 3,500 acres. A status report on these and completed projects is included in the appendices.

To be feasible, project locations will be at the intersection of water, jobs, and sunshine. With satellite dish technology and telecommuting becoming commonplace, more diverse job opportunities are becoming available in remote locations. With modest water resources, drip irrigation and waste water reclamation, arid regions are also opened to modern human settlement.

When will it become a reality?

Who will participate?

The NOPEC project development team is composed of individuals from many disciplines. Profiles of potential residents are being prepared, on a project-by-project basis. The NOPEC strategy accommodates "hardliners" who require careful analysis and satisfactory economic performance, as well as concerned environmentalists who may not know how to translate their concerns into practical terms. The detailed structure of the team is presented in Chapter 5, Implementation.