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12/18/2014 6:00AM

Jerry Seib: X Factors to Normalizing U.S Cuba Relations

Will President Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba hit roadblocks in Congress or garner enough support from business to launch a new era of political and economic cooperation? WSJ’s Jerry Seib explains. Photo: AP

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

... president Barack Obama may be lame duck when he can still shake things up in Washington we saw that on Wednesday when he made a surprise announcement that the US is going to normalize relations with Cuba ... this is a shocker this within fifty years of mutual estrangement between the U S and Cuba ... as it has deep meaning it would mean more commercial relationships between the two countries ... it would mean more trade between the two countries that would mean more movement of funds and more movement of people ... and potentially a you know what political cooperation ... in some ways around the hemisphere that the totally lacking for half a century ... the problem with this for the president is that this is politically very controversial of Republicans don't like it is going to be a lot of opposition ... and that matters because he can do all of this unilaterally Congress will be asked to do something ... that's been reluctant to do which is to lift the broader economic embargo against Cuba ... and eventually to approve a U S ambassador in funds for U S Embassy in Cuba ... that's can be pretty tough next year with Republicans in charge of Congress because a lot of opposition to this normalization idea on the Republican side ... and among presidential contenders on the Republican side to choose marker Rubio that ... the Senator from Florida whose family hails from Cuba ... so what's the X factor here what will determine how much President Obama can get that White suggests that an X factor that has got much attention so far in this equation ... is the business community help local will the business community be in supporting the present Obama is trying to do with Cuba the business community has been in various ways quietly and sometimes loudly in favor of lifting the embargo against Cuba for years now they'd like to trade a like e-commerce unlike any of the normalization of commercial relations around the Western hemisphere the Cuban embargo stood the way of some of that ... that they're the question then becomes will that be something that this is to decrease is quietly ... or actively and I think that was a big influence on the Republican Congress next year ... and they will help determine how far prison Obama can go down this controversial past ...