What is a player worth? Our projections tell us how we should value players. ADPs, mock drafts and experts leagues tell us how the marketplace values players. How everyone else thinks is important intelligence that helps us find profit opportunities.

News flash: Everyone else is wrong.

I looked back at 2018 and tracked the average draft position rankings from the NFBC and compared them to how the players actually finished. The results are startling.

Using a 15-team mixed league as our base, let’s begin with the first round. Here were last year’s top 15 picks: