After Apple v. Samsung, the smartphone market will never be the same [Updated]

Apple’s solid win over Samsung inthe epic patent and design trial that ended Friday has had some time to percolate through the techosphere, and one thing is becoming increasingly clear: If you’re a manufacturer of smartphones or a developer of the software that powers them, it’s not going to be business as usual from here on out.

Regardless, the portable devices business won’t be the same from here on out. Apple’s competitors are on notice that the paradigm established by the original iPhone isn’t something to be copied at will. The big question is: How will that manifest itself in the design of smartphones and tablets going forward?

There seems to be two thoughts in the analyses that are out there.

The first is that innovation will stagnate, with manufacturers of these phones playing it very safe, or tweaking their wares just enough to get around Apple’s designs and patents.

The second is that innovation will accelerate, with completely new approaches being pioneered.

Bill Flora, creative director at a design firm in Seattle called Tectonic, acknowledged both positive and negative feelings about the verdict. On the one hand, it could force mobile companies to focus more on design rather than simply acting as copycats, said Mr. Flora, a former Microsoft designer who played a central role in creating the look of its Windows Phone software.

But he said the decision could also create a “minefield” for product designers, in which they are constantly second-guessing whether functions will step on someone else’s patents. Mr. Flora is concerned, for example, that Apple’s patent on the pinch-to-zoom function covers a gesture that now is so common that touch screen products without it would be like cars with square or triangular steering wheels.

But here’s the big question: If you build a very different smartphone, will people buy it?

Such a product already exists, and so far it has not set the world ablaze. Microsoft’s Windows Phone platform looks nothing like the design made popular by Apple and Google’s Android, and while reviewers have praised its original approach, consumers have not been rushing to buy it. IDC reported earlier this month that, worldwide, Windows Phone has a paltry 3.5 percent share of the market.

That could change later this year, when the next iteration, Windows Phone 8, is released. Microsoft is so enamored of the tiles-and-text design of its mobile platform that it is risking its entire Windows franchise on it by making that interface the new look of its desktop operating system. Windows Phone 8 shares the same software kernel as the new Windows 8, which will make it easier for developers to make software that works on both platforms, and instantly creates an ecosystem. Whether that’s enough to make Windows Phone more attractive to consumers remains to be seen, particularly if change-averse home and business users give Windows 8 itself a thumbs-down.

But here’s another interesting scenario: Could the makers of smartphones, wary of litigation if they continue down the path of copying Apple’s approach, run to the safe harbor of licensing Microsoft’s operating system instead? Or would the current tepid market acceptance keep them away?

It likely will be at least a year before we know the full impact of the Apple v. Samsung outcome, but I don’t think we’ll return to the status quo. Friday’s verdict will undoubtedly change the game, for better or for worse.