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Who's Got The Momentum?

Which candidate has the momentum? It depends on where you look and whom you ask.

In the last 96 hours of any election, both parties seek to cast themselves and their candidate as the ones closing strong with a wind at their back.

This presidential election is no different, as already today the campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain have each held a "state of the race" conference call to argue that their candidate has the momentum heading into the final weekend of the contest.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, always the political clinician, used the call to announce that they were going on television in Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona for the final four days of the campaign, believing that polling suggests that there is a "path to victory" in each of the three states. (Obama had been on television earlier this year in Georgia and North Dakota while this is the first time the campaign will be doing paid advertising in McCain's home state.)

Plouffe added that early vote numbers in places like Florida are extremely encouraging -- noting that in 2004 Republicans led in early and absentee voting by 40,000 and this year Democrats hold a 200,000 vote edge.

The McCain call, which came just less than an hour after Plouffe concluded, featured the top brass of the Arizona senator's campaign making the case that their candidate was surging.

Pronouncing himself "jazzed up" at what he was seeing, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis predicted: "We are witnessing one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary."

Davis added that the last 10 days of the campaign have been the best since the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, noting that internal polling showed that the McCain had "shaken off the effects of the financial collapse that suppressed our numbers."

It depends on what measure you look at but, overall, polling at the state and national level suggests that Obama remains very much in the driver's seat heading into the final weekend of the race.

National polling is something of a mixed bag. Republicans have seized on the new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll that showed Obama leading McCain by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin -- a narrowing from the nine-point edge the same poll gave to Obama a week ago.

The general trend in national polling suggests some level of tightening but nothing that would point to a major change in momentum for McCain. The pollster.com average of all national polls -- the full chart is below -- puts Obama at 49.7 percent and McCain at 44.2 percent.

The evidence against a McCain "surge" is even more determinative when it comes to the battleground states.

Asked about the tightness of Indiana, Davis cited a new Rasmussen poll out today that put McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. But, remember that George W. Bush carried Indiana by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000. The very idea that Indiana is shaping up to be a nip and tuck race seems to belie the Republican argument that things are moving in McCain's direction in the final days.

One point made on the McCain call -- this one by pollster Bill McInturff -- is worth considering as we look to the final four days (!) of this campaign.

"It is very hard in what is a center-right country for a Democrat" to crest 50 percent, argued McInturff, citing the narrow victories of former Democratic presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. "Obama's number is dropping and John McCain is gradually coming up."

Even the most ardent Democratic strategists largely agree -- privately -- that the ideological makeup of the country probably prevents Obama from winning 55 percent of the vote or more, which would amount to an electoral vote landslide.

If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.

OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.

Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.

WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.

WAKE UP AMERICA.

.

.

Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.

Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.

Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.

Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.

Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.

Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.

Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.

I have to admit to be amused by some of the writings and claims of the Democrats that the Republicans are the party of the past. It is obvious to me that much of the Obama campaign has been an appeal to the sixties and seventies generation. A sort of intragenerational war that has never died. For those not old enough to remember, these are the focal points of the Obama campaign.

There is not much different about Obama's campaign from the flashpoints of the sixties. The war and social programs/ income redistribution is largely the focus of their campaign.

Much like the sixties, the Democrats have a psychological construct of a menacing , uneducated conservative population that needs their intellectual guidance. The poor slobs.

Unfortunately, the results of their immaturity and intellectual arrogance are there for all of us to see. The hasty and immoral Viet Nam withdrawal led to the deaths of millions of South Asians. Unfortunately, they are not hear to testify to the wisdom of the Democrats. The party of equal rights is now the party of misogynistic treatment of women. The civil rights party has sunk to the party of the race card. The Great Society deteriorated in to the Great Grab bag.

I suppose if you live in the past, you will be destined to relive the same issues over and over. You may be doing it again.

David Plouffe's casual announcement that the Obama Campaign was going into Arizona, North Dakota and Georgia was pure music to the ears of some of us. To others it was the peal of doom. It was evidence of the awesome power of money, when in the hands of veteran and astute political operatives.

It is evidence, also, of the faith that millions of small donors had in the campaign of this brilliant, shinny young man from Illinois, with the gorgeous wife, and two darling children. These little folk didn't have a lot to give, but they gave what they could afford, and they gave often. The managers of the funds received, used them wisely. And, thus when "crunch time" come, the Obama campaign has the money to go where it needs to go, where it wants to go.

These states, Arizona, North Dakota and Georgia has folks in them who want to be, need to be, a part of the History of 2008. We've got Judges, Council Members, School Board Members and Congressional Members to be elected. We don't care whether the States were "Red" or "Blue", last National Election. The Presidential candidates of 2004, are NOT on this ballot.

We've voted already, but there is a lot of Georgians who have not yet voted. Give them a chance to "think about" who they'd like to lead them into the future. Would they like to have the folk who have demonstrated the good judgment and character that causes folk to donate generously to them? Would they like to have the folk who select other good folk, who stay on for the duration, rather than change like hats or shoes? Would they at least like to have a chance to be a part of the Change that's about to sweep Washington, D.C.

David Plouffe's casual announcement that the Obama Campaign was going into Arizona, North Dakota and Georgia was pure music to those of us who support Barack Obama. It was peals of doom for the McCain folk.

This bit of "news" from the head of Obama's Campaign was indication of the awesome power of the dollar, in the hands of astute political operatives. These tremendous piles of dollars, raised by the Obama campaign, were raised for the campaign by getting small donations from millions of people who are "true believers" in the movement started by, led by, this brilliant, skinny, young man from Illinois, with the funny name, and the great smile-and the gorgeous wife, and darling children- yes, "that one".

These small donors from all over the Nation, from all ethnic groups, and genders, and ages, they gave what they had to give. They didn't give much, at one time, but, they gave often. And, they were wise in the ways they used that money-those excellent campaign managers of Barack Obama.

Thus, now, when it gets down to "crunch time", the Obama campaign has money to go where the votes are. They do not have to be dismayed by whether the State is "Red" or "Blue". We want the votes of the folk who live in those States. We've got folk who're running for Congress and Councils and School Boards, and Judges. We got good Americans who want to be a part of The History of 2008.

So, yeah, The Obama Campaign is going into North Dakota, Arizona and Georgia. We live in Georgia. And we've already voted for Barack. But, others have not, yet. This is part of the Get Out to Vote effort.

David Plouffe's casual announcement that the Obama Campaign was going into Arizona, North Dakota and Georgia was pure music to those of us who support Barack Obama. It was peals of doom for the McCain folk.

This bit of "news" from the head of Obama's Campaign was indication of the awesome power of the dollar, in the hands of astute political operatives. These tremendous piles of dollars, raised by the Obama campaign, were raised for the campaign by getting small donations from millions of people who are "true believers" in the movement started by, led by, this brilliant, skinny, young man from Illinois, with the funny name, and the great smile-and the gorgeous wife, and darling children- yes, "that one".

These small donors from all over the Nation, from all ethnic groups, and genders, and ages, they gave what they had to give. They didn't give much, at one time, but, they gave often. And, they were wise in the ways they used that money-those excellent campaign managers of Barack Obama.

Thus, now, when it gets down to "crunch time", the Obama campaign has money to go where the votes are. They do not have to be dismayed by whether the State is "Red" or "Blue". We want the votes of the folk who live in those States. We've got folk who're running for Congress and Councils and School Boards, and Judges. We got good Americans who want to be a part of The History of 2008.

So, yeah, The Obama Campaign is going into North Dakota, Arizona and Georgia. We live in Georgia. And we've already voted for Barack. But, others have not, yet. This is part of the Get Out to Vote effort.

AP: Obama’s aunt living in U.S. illegally
Immigration judge denied Kenyan woman’s request for asylum in 2004
updated 11:27 p.m. ET, Fri., Oct. 31, 2008
WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned.

Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in Obama's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday. This person spoke on condition of anonymity because no one was authorized to discuss Onyango's case.

Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcement official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government...

************
Again- she's living in public housing in Boston, which means she's not only illegally here- We're paying to keep a roof over her head, while her Millionaire nephew tells US that he wants to decide how to "spread the wealth around"!

Barack Obama is a thoughtful progressive. John McCain is a knee-jerk reactionary. This country has had enough of a president who reacts from the gut and gets us into wars and deep recessions. It's time for someone rational.

That's why I'm voting for Barack Obama.

(Whether it's a tidal wave or a squeaker, I don't care. I am voting for the leader who will unite us as we move forward into the future - not for the doddering relic from a past that's cost us ALL so dearly.)

Zogby Runs a 3 Day Poll- Updating daily- Well, 10/31 was a GREAT Day for John McCain- UP 48-47 over Obama for the first time in eons!

It makes good sense: after all Obama said it was "good to spread the wealth around" YET HE doesn't walk the talk- His Aunt, about whom he wrote in his memoirs, Is living ILLEGALLY in a South Boston Housing project(reported tonight by AP), and his half brother lives in Kenya in very primitive conditions....SO, America is waking up to the hypocritical redistributive economics of Barack Obama- he wants to REDISTRIBUTE OUR income to take care of his illegal aunt, when HE won't!

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama's aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned.
Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in Obama's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday.

This is my take on everything. First of all, I was excited to hear that McCain was going to run, but then between moving towards the right in all his policies and picking that damn Sarah Palin and empowering the dangerous Religious Right, he's just another Neocon to me now. This is why I'm now going to risk Obama. McCain let the far right influence him, and we know Limbaugh and the rest of the far/extreme right will blast him for trying to be bipartisan. Obama might be a moderate, even if Pelosi and Reid may not like it, and not be completely eviscerated for it. As long as he doens't go completely far/extreme left, I'm be okay with him.

As for the race, this nonsense that Obama will win with a landslide is ridiculous. Now, I'm not a PUMA, a Democrat for McCain, or a Republican supporting Obama, one of these Obamacans, I'm an Independent, which is why I considered voting for McCain after all of Obama's flip flops. But I will now try to trust Obama. Now as for the race, look Republicans are still around, even though, especially after the Immigration debate where they through Hispanics away, they are mostly whites in Palin's "real America." What the hell is up with her? Anyways, they are causing the race to tighten up nationally.

The states are a different matter though. My picks are this, Obama will lose Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota. He will win Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, and Nevada. With that the race will be a 291-247 victory for him. This 338-200 nonsense is ridiculous. I think Obama will win, but not in a landslide, to be fair. I think that is what the map will look like.

WASHINGTON - Patrick Campbell worries Barack Obama will raise his taxes but thinks John McCain will send people off to war. He says that leaves him leaning toward Obama ... maybe.

"I'm split right down the middle," said the 50-year-old Air Force Reserve technician from Amherst, N.Y. "Each one has things that are good for me and things that are bad for me. And people like me."

With the sand in the 2008 campaign hourglass about depleted, Campbell is part of a stubborn wedge of people who, somehow, are still making up their minds about who should be president. One in seven, or 14 percent, can't decide, or back a candidate but might switch, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) News poll of likely voters released Friday.

KEEP THROWING PROMcCAIN REPORTERS OFF THE PLANE OBAMA REPLACING THEM WITH JET AND ESSENCE MAGAZINE WRITERS- YOU'RE LETTING AMERICA SEE YOUR TRUE AUTHORITARIAN SIDE A FEW DAYS TOO SOON: Fairness Doctrine comes next - cut off conservative radio- like you cut off that tv station in Orlando-

YOU'RE WORSE THAN BUSH- HE DIDN'T TRY TO CUT OFF MSNBC! and 1 IN 7 ARE DECIDING...

"Oceania is at war with Eastasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia."
-Big Brother

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq. This is an illusion ... they are trying to sell to the others an illusion."
-Baghdad Bob, as U.S. soldiers were entering Baghdad

For months I have been writing on this blog in support of Barak Obama. I have tried to push back on the lies and offer some arguments of why Mr. Obama is the right man and John Mccain is not. I don't really have any words left but I want to leave you with this.

John Mccain is "Not" the man some of you may think he is. John Mccain is damaged goods. Perhaps due to an inherent personality flaw, or from his war experience John Mccain lacks any empathy for another human being. It has been shown many times in how he has treated his wives and others. He cares about no one but himself. He will lie cheat, steal and exploit anyone for his own selfish needs what ever they are at the time. He is not trustworthy nor an honorable man in any way. I don't really know what else to say. The last straw for me was when he added to his spiel a story about sitting on a flight deck of a carrier with a mission and a target during the Cuba missile crises. More lies by this self aggrandizing phony hero.

This is my closing argument I guess. Please do your own research if need be, it is not too late and protect our country from who would be a very sick and dangerous leader.

As a helicopter crewman my job was to retrieve wounded soldiers from the battle field often under fire. I met and knew so many "REAL" heros, I have a very hard time watching and listening to John Mccain as he spews his lies and venom. John Mccain is a piece of filth and I lack the vocabulary to even put into words what a phony he really is. On November 4 you have a choice.

I regard this general sense among pollsters, pundits and the chattering class that McCain will win the bulk of the undecideds with great skepticism. Typically the undecideds break to the "out" party, not the "in" party. McCain is the Republican, he is the candidate of the "in" party, so I gotta think Obama at least splits the undecideds down the middle. More likely he'll win about 55% of the undecideds.

Most of the undecideds will go for McCain,
however, Obama is at 50 percent in the average of polls. If you consider that Barr and Nader will draw a point or so, that still leaves McCain with 48-49 percent at best. Obama will win by 3 percent of the popular vote, just like George.

In 2000, I knew it was going to be tight. In 2004, I knew it was going to be tight. But here in 2008, I think it could be tight, with either candidate winning, and I also think it could be an electoral landslide for Obama. Talk about your unknown unknowns. The only thing I don't think will happen is an electoral landslide for McCain. If McCain wins, it'll be in a squeaker.

Seems like, every forty years, the GOP is found out to be the bunch of immoral corporate shills that they are - and they take a beating in the voting booth. Then, they re-emerge by finding new ways to suck in the dumb voters (pro-guns, anti-abortion, evangelicals, tax cuts for the rich etc...), and they run with it - until they are found out again.

Very strange campaigning by the McCain campaign today. As I was leaving an afternoon meeting in downtown Columbus, I noticed McCain supporters gathering in advance of a McCain event in downtown Columbus today. There are very few Republican voters living within five miles of the event's location and Columbus is increasingly Democratic, having last elected a Republican to City Council in 2001, and Obama's vote share in Columbus is likely to exceed 60%. Kerry carried Franklin County by 40,000 votes with 54% of the vote. Obama's margin is likely to exceed that and his vote percentage will probably top Kerry's as well.

If McCain were going to campaign in Franklin County, Ohio's second most populous county behind Cuyahoga, it would have made more sense for him to go where the Republican votes are, in heavily Republican suburbs like Upper Arlington, New Albany, or Dublin. It seems dumb to be campaigning in the heart of Obama territory.

There were a couple striking characteristics of the gathering crowd I observed. It was exclusively white and largely older, mostly a combination of elderly and middle-aged. I'd put the average age of people I saw near the event as north of 50. That is a really striking contrast with Obama's crowds, which are generally much younger and more diverse---more a reflection of the American population as a whole.

Very strange campaigning by the McCain campaign today. As I was leaving an afternoon meeting in downtown Columbus, I noticed McCain supporters gathering in advance of a McCain event in downtown Columbus today. There are very few Republican voters living within five miles of the event's location and Columbus is increasingly Democratic, having last elected a Republican to City Council in 2001, and Obama's vote share in Columbus is likely to exceed 60%. Kerry carried Franklin County by 40,000 votes with 54% of the vote. Obama's margin is likely to exceed that and his vote percentage will probably top Kerry's as well.

If McCain were going to campaign in Franklin County, Ohio's second most populous county behind Cuyahoga, it would have made more sense for him to go where the Republican votes are, in heavily Republican suburbs like Upper Arlington, New Albany, or Dublin. It seems dumb to be campaigning in the heart of Obama territory.

There were a couple striking characteristics of the gathering crowd I observed. It was exclusively white and largely older, mostly a combination of elderly and middle-aged. I'd put the average age of people I saw near the event as north of 50. That is a really striking contrast with Obama's crowds, which are generally much younger and more diverse---more a reflection of the American population as a whole.

Very strange campaigning by the McCain campaign today. As I was leaving an afternoon meeting in downtown Columbus, I noticed McCain supporters gathering in advance of a McCain event in downtown Columbus today. There are very few Republican voters living within five miles of the event's location and Columbus is increasingly Democratic, having last elected a Republican to City Council in 2001, and Obama's vote share in Columbus is likely to exceed 60%. Kerry carried Franklin County by 40,000 votes with 54% of the vote. Obama's margin is likely to exceed that and his vote percentage will probably top Kerry's as well.

If McCain were going to campaign in Franklin County, Ohio's second most populous county behind Cuyahoga, it would have made more sense for him to go where the Republican votes are, in heavily Republican suburbs like Upper Arlington, New Albany, or Dublin. It seems dumb to be campaigning in the heart of Obama territory.

There were a couple striking characteristics of the gathering crowd I observed. It was exclusively white and largely older, mostly a combination of elderly and middle-aged. I'd put the average age of people I saw near the event as north of 50. That is a really striking contrast with Obama's crowds, which are generally much younger and more diverse---more a reflection of the American population as a whole.

You can say Obama is a progressive, but not a moderate. Moderate to me is like Bill Clinton. He did not stick with party orthodoxy on every issue (welfare reform, Free trade, fiscal policies, etc). You cannot really say that about Obama. Going by voting records alone, McCain is more of a moderate than Obama (at least before the last couple of years). Obama's voting record definitely leans left of center.

You can say Obama is a progressive, but not a moderate. Moderate to me is like Bill Clinton. He did not stick with party orthodoxy on every issue (welfare reform, Free trade, fiscal policies, etc). You cannot really say that about Obama. Going by voting records alone, McCain is more of a moderate than Obama (at least before the last couple of years). Obama's voting record definitely leans left of center.

king_of_zouk - Oh come on. None of them are socialists and, once you get past the campaign blathering, Obama is a moderate. My genuine concern is that, after they fix the current economic mess (which I belive they need that 60 vote majority to do), the Democrats will start enacting like just like the Republican's they are replacing (i.e. crooked). All representatives need to be replaced every few years just so they don't think of their job as some sort of entitlement.

USING MALLEABLE POLLS AS THEIR EVIDENCE, ARE THE FORCES OF THE STATUS QUO RESETTING THE NARRATIVE?

Wasn't it just a couple of days ago that Chris wrote that he couldn't see how McCain could prevail?

Today, it's "not YET" (emphasis added) as to whether a "natural tightening" translates into McCain momentum that could presage a come-from-behind victory.

The question you should be asking: Is there really a "natural tightening," or are pollsters massaging their data to create that illusion -- exaggerating evidence of a game-changing sea change?

Exhibit A: the decision by Gallup to bifurcate their results, offering clients a poll based on a "traditional" model of likely voters, or what might be termed a "youth vote added" model.

So pick and choose the data -- is that accurate polling science, or keeping the customer satisfied?

This trend toward poll "customization" comes amid reports of purges of voter rolls and other attempts at voter suppression, such as phony letters making false claims of dire consequences should certain people (college students away from home, for example) dare to exercise their constitutionally protected right.

The greatest unknown is whether electronic voting machines, which are recording a third of all votes cast, can be relied upon to yield an accurate count. Few major media outlets have reported on warnings emanating from computer scientists that both "firmware" (microchips) and software (programming) are vulnerable to manipulation -- by hackers, or by rogue programmers or servicers on a mission.

Because the vast majority of electronic voting machines do not produce a voter-verifiable paper trail, there is no way to detect whether votes have been electronically siphoned to the benefit of one candidate over another.

But will the pundits consider the possibility of electronic voting manipulation, should the final tally fail to comport with the predicted results?

Or will an upset be attributed to that "natural tightening", the "Bradley Effect," or some factor other than a fradulent electoral process?

If past is prologue, the pundits will go along with the progam and chalk it up to a shifting electorate -- as opposed to a shifty election.

Then it would be fair to ask: Just how long has it been since we lost our democracy?

WILL THE ELECTION EVEN MATTER? Not when government-supported "extrajudicial targeting" squads are "community stalking" American citizens, making a mockery of the rule of law:

SARASOTA — What's a Democrat like Sen. Barack Obama doing in a county like Sarasota?

"You can do it, Sarasota. You can do it, Florida. We can decide it right here in five days' time,'' he told 13,000 people Thursday in a county that hasn't backed a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt.

Sarasota has been turning more and more Democratic lately, and Obama drew about four times as many people as Sen. John McCain did in the same community a week earlier.

"Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale."

Obama had trouble closing against Hillary, who for all of her flaws has shown herself to be much tougher than McCain. Obama at least had to struggle and limp to the finish line against HRC. She sometimes hit him hard in ways he did no expect. Tuesday looks like a blow out. The old Rebulican rhetoric has been totally discredited by 8 years of W. We are electing the most inexperienced candidate in modern history (go ahead, check it on Wikipedia) at a time with some serious national problems. Plus the Democratic leadership is not great (Pelosi, Reid, Dean, Ugh). I hope it all works out.

"Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale."

Obama had trouble closing against Hillary, who for all of her flaws has shown herself to be much tougher than McCain. Obama at least had to struggle and limp to the finish line against HRC. She sometimes hit him hard in ways he did no expect. Tuesday looks like a blow out. The old Rebulican rhetoric has been totally discredited by 8 years of W. We are electing the most inexperienced candidate in modern history (go ahead, check it on Wikipedia) at a time with some serious national problems. Plus the Democratic leadership is not great (Pelosi, Reid, Dean, Ugh). I hope it all works out.

USING MALLEABLE POLLS AS THEIR EVIDENCE, ARE THE FORCES OF THE STATUS QUO RESETTING THE NARRATIVE?

Wasn't it just a couple of days about that Chris C. wrote that he couldn't see how McCain could prevail?

Today, it's "not YET" (emphasis added) as to whether a "natural tightening" win translates into the momentum that could presage a come-from-behind McCain victory.

The question you should be asking: Is there really a "natural tightening," or are pollsters massaging their data to create that illusion -- exaggerating evidence of a game-changing sea change?

Exhibit A: the decision by Gallup to bifurcate their results, offering clients a poll based on a "traditional" model of likely voters, or what might be termed a "youth vote added" model.

So pick and choose your data -- is that accurate polling science, or keeping the customer satisfied?

This trend toward poll "customization" comes amid reports of purges of voter rolls and other attempts at voter suppression, such as phony letters making false claims of dire consequences should certain people (college students away from home, for example) dare to exercise their constitutionally protected right.

The greatest unknown is whether electronic voting machines, which are recording a third of all votes cast, can be relied upon to yield an accurate count. Few major media outlets have reported on warnings emanating from computer scientists that both "firmware" (microchips) and software (programming) are vulnerable to manipulation -- by hackers, or by rogue programmers or servicers on a mission.

Because the vast majority of electronic voting machines do not produce a voter-verifiable paper trail, there is no way to detect whether votes have been electronically siphoned to the benefit of one candidate over another.

But will the pundits consider the possibility of electronic voting manipulation, should the final tally fail to comport with the predicted results?

Or will an upset be attributed to that "natural tightening", the "Bradley Effect," or some factor other than a fradulent electoral process?

If past is prologue, the pundits will go along with the progam and chalk it up to a shifting electorate -- as opposed to a shifty election.

Then it would be fair to ask: Just how long has it been since we lost our democracy?

WILL THE ELECTION EVEN MATTER? Not when government-supported "extrajudicial targeting" squads are "community stalking" American citizens, making a mockery of the rule of law:

I have to laugh about Rick Davis's (Freddie's Friend) spin here. The McCain-iacs might want to get back to the trenches in Arizona, because my family and friends there say that an anti-McCain rearguard action is emerging in the Senator's home state. Polls are now tied or close, the Democratic Governor has employed her election-day organization, and there are thousands of supporters of Senator Obama's ground game deploying their GOTV operation. In any event, Rick Davis should be preparing for his forthcoming testimony before the Waxman committee, where he won't be able to spin his way out of explaining the $15,000 a month payments he took from Freddie Mac. It should make for very interesting TV viewing. I understand that, with Sen. Steven's appeal awaiting, the highly-touted Brendan Sullivan won't be available. Too bad for Davis.

I have to laugh about Rick Davis's (Freddie's Friend) spin here. The McCain-iacs might want to get back to the trenches in Arizona, because my family and friends there say that an anti-McCain rearguard action is emerging in the Senator's home state. Polls are now tied or close, the Democratic Governor has employed her election-day organization, and there are thousands of supporters of Senator Obama's ground game deploying their GOTV operation. In any event, Rick Davis should be preparing for his forthcoming testimony before the Waxman committee, where he won't be able to spin his way out of explaining the $15,000 a month payments he took from Freddie Mac. It should make for very interesting TV viewing. I understand that, with Sen. Steven's appeal awaiting, the highly-touted Brendan Sullivan won't be available. Too bad for Davis.

"A friend sent me news about a Louisiana poll where McCain is up 43 to 40, in a 4.5 MOE. That leaves 17% going 3rd party or undecided. That Louisiana could be a 3 point race is shocking news. Perhaps shell-shocking to the McCain campaign."

Obama most likely destroyed McCain in the LA early voting (its only for one week). Twice as many Dems voted than Republicans. I really do wonder if the state can flip.

Seriously, if anyone believes that they are going to get a tax cut from the Lib, who has promised trillions in new spending, and we all know that they spend even more than promised, if you are gullible enough to believe those lies, you are truly daffy.

I enjoyed the posting from "Mark R. McGrath," who claims to be a business owner who will lay off 20% of his staff if Obama is elected. A Google search reveals that a "Mark R. McGrath" published the same comment on a Canadian website, and that a "Mark R. McGrath" commented on Time magazine's website to the effect that today's teenage rock 'n roll fans aren't druggies nor are they interested in music as social commentary.

There is an attorney Mark R. McGrath who's listed as a partner in a law firm in Research Triangle Park, N.C. If this is the same Mark R. McGrath, I hope he's already discussed the layoffs with his staff because I'm sure they'd hate to learn about it this way.

DrainYou - I don't think it's funny. I think it's sad and pathetic. All of the parsites and vermin surrounding McCain are only interested in themselves and what they can get. This includes Palin and Joe and his media, campaign and economic advisors. I know, McCain made a mistake in taking on these bloated ticks in the first place, and it is to our advantage that he did so, but still, to see a once great and proud man reduced to depending on the self serving swine that composes so much of the Republican Party these days. KOZ! You are actually a thoughful conservative, one of the few remaining Reagan Republican's. It's up to you guys to take out the trash and get your party back. We really do need a loyal opposition and thoughtful conservatives to provide a choice. The chpoice, right now, is between con artists, scounderals, nasty dishonest NeoMarxists and Democrats (which tend to enact some pretty silly prgrams without doing decent risk analysis). Give us choice!

We have the momentum Chris. The serious, well blended lot of us. We're not playing around here. I have hope that we will maintain these margins. Gallup says Obama's lead has widened some more on all bases as of today. We're leading on early voters (GREAT JOB America!! Keep it up, carpool and don't leave the lines, arrive early). For the good of this country and our citizens, we've got to make that PUSH over that line. It is time for a new course of action from our current direction. The past two terms has served detrimental to this country, and Bush isn't done yet: Read "Bush Makes Final Push for Deregulation"

“The White House is working to enact a wide array of federal regulations, many of which would weaken government rules aimed at protecting consumers and the environment, before President Bush leaves office in January. The new rules would be among the most controversial deregulatory steps of the Bush era and could be difficult for his successor to undo. Some would ease or lift constraints on private industry, including power plants, mines and farms. Those and other regulations would help clear obstacles to some commercial ocean-fishing activities, ease controls on emissions of pollutants that contribute to global warming, relax drinking-water standards and lift a key restriction on mountaintop coal mining.”

Does any of that lift a brow or some level of discontent? EVERYONE disappointed with what Bush is trying to do or enable even after he leaves, please write to your Congress Representatives. Email them or send letters. 100% of Bush's efforts ought to be rejected and saved for the next administration to examine, page by page.

Broken down by state and includes the list of members, and information to contact them. I think enough neglect has been issued, and enough damage has been done. I trust Obama to look into it moreso than I trust McCain's philosophies or his lack of intellectual curiousity to find out or even care what is going on.

A friend sent me news about a Louisiana poll where McCain is up 43 to 40, in a 4.5 MOE. That leaves 17% going 3rd party or undecided. That Louisiana could be a 3 point race is shocking news. Perhaps shell-shocking to the McCain campaign.

Gort has been abducted, multiply replicated and is now being abused by the McCain campaign team in its final desperate effort to add four more years to the Cheney-Bush catastrophe. We've got only one day left to raise money and only four more days to knock on doors, make phone calls and boost voter turnout to a 48-year record. The turnout of the voting-age population was 63.1% in 1960. In 2004, it was 55.3%. The low point was 49.1% in 1996.
.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg56KbtmARc
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As a business owner who employs 30 people, I have resigned myself to the fact that Barack Obama will be our next president, and that my taxes and fees will go up in a BIG way.

To compensate for these increases, I figure that the Customer will have to see an increase in my fees to them of about 8-10%. I will also have to lay off six of my employees. This really bothered me as I believe we are family here and didn’t know how to choose who will have to go. So, this is what I did. I strolled thru the parking lot and found eight Obama bumper stickers on my employee’s cars. I have decided these folks will be the first to be laid off.

I can’t think of another fair way to approach this problem. If you have a better idea, let me know.

Check out http://www.bushthirdterm.net/.
John McCain actually tells supporters at a republican straw poll not to vote for him, but to write-in President Bush's name! Only four days left to prevent Bush's third term - spread the word!

CNN takes a look at what went wrong with McCain's planned Phoney Plumber Joe photo op yesterday. According to the McCain campaign, Joe decided he didn't want to go at the last minute, but according to Joe, they never followed up with him after making the initial invite.
.http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/30/joe-the-plumber-a-no-show/
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Either way, it led to one of the most humiliating moments of the campaign for McCain, who announced Joe's presence to the crowd only to quickly discover that Joe was a no show. An obviously flustered McCain then flubbed an attack line during his speech, and instead of recovering simply said: "never mind."
.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iucdy83OXcE
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king_of_zouk - The independent Tax Policy Institute ran the figures for both candidates, given their tax cut and spoending proposals. If all of Obama's proposals were enacted we would need to increase tax revenues by 3.8 billion dollars; if all of McCain's tax proposals were enacted we would need to raise an addition 5.3 billion dollars! Moreover, McCain's proposal ro tax medical benefits is the single largest income tax iincrease on the middle class in history. The average medical plan costs slightly more than $900 a month per person. McCain's proposal would subject all of that but the first $5000 to federal income tax -- a total increase in income of $5800. Worse, becasue of McCain's ignoring the ATM, the average family of four will be kicked into a higher tax bracket, one reflecting more than $23,000 a year in income, which will bankrupt them. Again, I don't know why people aren't talking about it, but John McCain is proposing the single largest tax increase on middle and lower income American families in all of our history!

I'm old enough to remember George McGovern's campaign manager claiming his candidate was headed for a historic comeback just before the election. Take anything a campaign manager says with a large grain of salt.

king_of_zouk - The independent Tax Policy Institute ran the figures for both candidates, given their tax cut and spoending proposals. If all of Obama's proposals were enacted we would need to increase tax revenues by 3.8 billion dollars; if all of McCain's tax proposals were enacted we would need to raise an addition 5.3 billion dollars! Moreover, McCain's proposal ro tax medical benefits is the single largest income tax iincrease on the middle class in history. The average medical plan costs slightly more than $900 a month per person. McCain's proposal would subject all of that but the first $5000 to federal income tax -- a total increase in income of $5800. Worse, becasue of McCain's ignoring the ATM, the average family of four will be kicked into a higher tax bracket, one reflecting more than $23,000 a year in income, which will bankrupt them. Again, I don't know why people aren't talking about it, but John McCain is proposing the single largest tax increase on middle and lower income American families in all of our history!

"[P}ollster Scott Rasmussen, who surveys in many of the most contested states, disagrees that those who remain undecided are more likely to go to McCain once in the voting booth.

"In our polls right now, we have hardly anybody who is truly undecided," he said. "We have about 10 percent who say they... could change their mind, and more of those people are leaning in Obama's direction than in McCain's direction right now."

Obama clearly has the momentum, because he's in the lead, and has been in the lead for a while. That's what "momentum" means. McCain may be gaining in some state and national polls, but that means he's picking up speed, not that he has momentum.

Even if something terrible happened to the Obama campaign right this second, it wouldn't make much of a difference. In some states, over half of the 2004 turnout has already voted, so their votes won't change. Other voters would need to hear about the new event, process it, and decide to change their votes based on it. Right now, the voters prefer Obama, and there isn't time for shift to McCain in sufficient numbers to win him the election. That's why Obama has the momentum.

I'm assuming that the polls are correct. There are several factors that imply Obama's poll numbers are too low, so he may have even more of a lead than the polls show.

"1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line."

I think the polls showing a tighening race are correct. I don't see people switching their votes, but I do see the undecided voters splitting in McCain's favor. That means, unless you want four more years of Bush, call your local Obama campaign headquarters and VOLUNTEER! I have, and will be working on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, 9 in the morning until 9 p.m. at night. I hope you will join me.

This nation is on the verge of something historic - the election of a smart, competent black man as President of the United States. If is fair to say the entire world is watching. It is also fair to say the vast majority is rooting for a Republican defeat. If you don’t believe me you clearly don’t read anything.

How did we get to this place and time? How did a freshman Senator inspire millions of voters to finance his unlikely campaign? Why is he leading in the polls? How did this happen?

Well, I’ll tell you how it happened for me.

I was one of those who had doubts about the Iraq war. I did not believe that Iraq was an imminent threat to the United States. Not that Saddam was a good guy ( he wasn’t) however there are lots of bad guys in the world who are not an imminent threat to us whom we don’t attack. We were already flying over his country everyday. There was a tight embargo. Unless he had nuclear weapons how big a threat could he be?

The Administration then lied to us about Saddam and his weaponry.. Further, it sent out a duped Colin Powell to convince us. Bush knew we would believe Colin. So the United States of America, beacon of liberty, attacked a third world country, destroyed its hapless military, made rubble of its infrastructure and occupied it.

Later the lies came out. There were no dangerous weapons. Just fudged intelligence.

The Dems swept into control of Congress in 2006. Bush’s veto could override a 51-49 majority in the Senate so the war went on. Notwithstanding every indication that the majority of Americans didn’t want this war to continue, it went on anyway with no end date. I watched as we tortured prisoners, suspended Habeas Corpus and shredded the Constitution. I watched as Bush politicized the Justice Department and placed incompetent political hacks in high office. Then came the financial collapse.

So here we are. Tens of millions of us have made this journey starting a different places for different reasons; a journey which began with a distaste and disgust with Bush to a point where we may take our country back. Tens of millions have worked hard, made whatever donations we could afford and are already voting in many states.

The whole world is rooting for us to succeed. The whole world needs an America they can look up to again.

To Republican Hack King of Zouk: There are a lots of folks who do not have 401s and do not have the income to support them. Therefore, your stuff is irrelevant. I refer folks to an article in today's New York Times about the more immediate tax benefits of both candidate's plans. Obama's plan is better for the working class and the middle class which for all practical purposes are the same folks.

As regards Mr. Davis: he is a liar seeking only to keep the Republican base intact.

Gallup Daily Tract Enhanced has the spread at 11 points or 52 to 43 Obama. This is consistent with the NYT/CBS polling yesterday. State by state electoral vote counts show Obama near or above the required 270 and McCain in a mathematically impossible place.

I think the polls showing a tighening are correct. I don't see people switching their votes, but I do see the undecided voters splitting in McCain's favor. That means, unless yu want four more years of Bush, call your local Obama campaign headquarters and VOLUNTEER! I have and will be working on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, 9 in the morning until 9 p.m. I hope you will join me.

I think the polls showing a tighening are correct. I don't see people switching their votes, but I do see the undecided voters splitting in McCain's favor. That means, unless yu want four more years of Bush, call your local Obama campaign headquarters and VOLUNTEER! I have and will be working on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, 9 in the morning until 9 p.m. I hope you will join me.

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Chris, you need to remove the post by "toritto" for posting incorrect closing hours for polls in Virginia on election day.

Correct information for the Virginia State Board of Elections:
Election Day is Tuesday November 4
Polls open from 6 AM – 7 PM state wide

National polls are irrelevant, it is the state by state polls that matter. Week after week after week Obama has led or been tied in all the battleground states. He is making Georgia and Arizona close to the margin of error. If the polls are close to accurate, McCain has to flip not one or two states but close to a dozen. Lose one of them and he is done. What makes it so nerve wracking is how do you poll? If the demographic makeup of 2008 is identical to 2004, then it is a squeaker. If the demographic makeup is different, then it is Obama in the 300's (electoral count.)

Look at what the pollster's face. How do you include people with cell phones only? What percent cell phones in your survey versus land lines? What will minority turnout be? How do you weight minority answers in your survey: by traditional turnout patterns or do you bump them up? Same question for the youth vote. On McCain's side what about the evangelical base? Bush only won in 2004 because evangelicals in Ohio turned out at phenomenal rates. Otherwise Kerry would have won with a minority of the national vote. Does Palin have the base as excited/fearful as Bush did in 2004? Because no one thinks that part of the base is excited about McCain. And what to make of the conservative intellectuals jumping ship? Will they just not vote? Will they vote Obama or at the last minute will they vote Republican? Right now I'd rather be a meteorologist than a pollster.

McCain and Palin are even more clueless than W is as they have based their entire campaign on a series of nasty, false personal attacks on Barack Obama. Their bet has been that Americans are a fearful, frightened bunch who won't be willing to vote for a new direction. But the McCain-Palin calculus couldn't have been more wrong; their bet is going to fail, and fail badly.

When it does fail, it will leave the Republican Party with nothing. John McCain will almost certainly outperform Barry Goldwater in this election in terms of his share of the vote, yet he will leave his party in far worse shape than did Goldwater. At least Goldwater left his party with a devoted base of conservative activists, energized by his commitment to conservative ideology.

McCain, meanwhile, has stood for nothing other than attacks on Barack Obama. He has taken a Republican brand that had been shattered by George W. Bush and done nothing to repair it, leaving his party with no more of a clue about how to address the needs of ordinary Americans than they had when this election cycle began.

1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.

2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.

3) Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale.

4) The argument in the past two weeks has shifted, such that many undecided voters who are now paying attention are hearing about Obama’s redistributionist tendencies at exactly the right moment for McCain.

5) The tightening in several daily tracking polls indicates a modest surge on McCain’s part that could continue through the weekend until election day. If he is behind by three or four points right now, a slow and steady move upward could push him past the finish line in first place.

6) In terms of the electoral map, the energy and focus McCain is directing at Pennsylvania could pay huge dividends if he pulls it off. If he prevails there, it might follow that the message will work in Ohio too. And if he wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, he will probably win even if he loses Virginia and Colorado.

7) Early voting numbers are not oceanic by any means, which may indicate the degree of enthusiasm for Obama among new voters is not something new but something entirely of a par with past candidates, like John Kerry. And they show more strength on the Republican side than most people expected.

What happened with the Joe the Plumber story is that Obama has now been effectively outed as a liberal, not a moderate; and because liberalism is still less popular than conservatism, that’s not the best place for Obama to be.

9) The fire lit under Obama’s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didn’t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.

10) Hispanic voters, who are always underpolled, know and appreciate McCain from his stance on immigration and will vote for him in larger numbers than anyone anticipates.

In my part of conservative suburban East Valley Pheonix AZ, I have been suprised all season about the number of Obama bumper stickers. AZ is conservative (2 US Senators (R) and state legislator both houses longtime (R) but with a (D) gov. and adding more (D) in US house, we reflect some national trends in the Sun Belt and the Mountain West.

Even if McCain carries the home state, and I think he will. The local and national political landscape moves more back to the center than in the last 14 years when the "Contract with America" was new.

The McCain camp is whistling in the dark at this point. The states that are listed as 'toss-up' at this point in time are states that W (and other Republicans)carried. McCain is having to play defense while Obama is playing offense.

Obama appears to have enough electoral votes now to win. Whether his margin is 3% to 5% over McCain will make little difference in the long run as the Dems sweep both houses of Congress. The momentum is definitely with Obama...

Time Magazine writes that one of the few things that could derail the Barack Obama campaign is his running mate, so it says the campaign is "hidin' Biden." Karen Tumulty compares traveling with Joe Biden to "reporting on a politician packaged in shrink-wrap" and that he is "leashed to a teleprompter even when he is talking in a high school gym that is three-quarters empty."

that loony old grampa in the attic. At least the comedians will have plenty of free material.

Each Obama metamorphosis in itself might be attributed to the normal evolution to the middle, as a candidate shifts from the primary to the general election. But in the case of Obama, we witnessed not a shift, but a complete transformation to an entirely new persona — in almost every imaginable sense of the word. Name an issue — FISA, NAFTA, guns, abortion, capital punishment, coal, nuclear power, drilling, Iran, Jerusalem, the surge — and Obama’s position today is not that of just a year ago.

Until 2005, Obama was in communication with Bill Ayers by e-mail and phone, despite Ayers reprehensible braggadocio in 2001 that he remained an unrepentant terrorist. Rev. Wright was an invaluable spiritual advisor — until spring of 2008. Father Pfleger was praised as an intimate friend in 2004 — and vanished off the radar in 2008. The media might have asked not just why these rather dubious figures were once so close to, and then so distant from, Obama; but why were there so many people like Rashid Khalidi and Tony Rezko in Obama’s past in the first place?

2004 swing state polling numbers taken days before the Bush/Kerry election. All composite polls predicted the state outcomes, except one (WI). Note that Obama's larger and consistent leads in some swing states (e.g., Iowa; PA; VA; Florida) are much greater than either Kerry or Bush in the final days....

Americans for Tax Reform worked with John Rutledge to calculate how Obama's and McCain's tax policies would affect the stock market. The calculator appears at ATR's Web site, www.atr.org.

You can enter the size of your 401(k), and it will calculate its value under four different scenarios: if Obama's tax increases pass; if McCain's tax cuts are enacted; if Congress' plans are enacted; and if Americans for Tax Reform's fantasy tax cuts, including abolishing the capital gains tax, were made law.

The Obama tax plan will reduce the value of the stock market and your 401(k) by 6%. The House Democrat plan will drop the market by 16%. Remember, Obama cannot impose his tax plan — he has to sign what Congress sends him, so Congress' tax plans are more important than Obama's campaign speeches.

If Republicans won the House and Senate and McCain's tax plans were enacted, the market and your 401(k) would increase by 46%. And if you pass the McCain plan and add ATR's abolition of the capital gains and dividends tax, the market and your 401(k) would increase by 58%.

But the market can read the newspapers and is aware that the Democrats control the House and Senate now and likely will for the next two years. This means the market gains since 2003 due to lower capital gains and dividend taxes will disappear.

The market has already begun to drop in anticipation of the coming tax increases. The Pelosi-Reid-Obama recession has already started.

Of course, if Obama and the Democrat leaders in Congress have tax hikes and regulatory burdens planned that they haven't shared publicly, the market will drop even further. It can get worse.

McCain needs to run the table over the final days -- and cheat a bit on the margins.

The big x-factor is GOTV -- and it looks like McCain's operation is focused almost entirely in Ohio and Florida. Obama can do a frontal maneuver in some of the larger prizes and run flanking maneuvers in some of the small and mid-sized contests.

Hard to believe that even Arizona is within the margin of error at this stage.

The Fix writes:
"Pronouncing himself "jazzed up" at what he was seeing, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis predicted: "We are witnessing one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary." "

The critical difference being, of course, that events in Iraq helped McCain win the primary. Thus far, the external events in the general are working against McCain, not for him. Worse, his own decisions are backfiring - the selection he made for a runningmate has driven moderates from him in droves.

If I have to hear the term "center-right country" one more time, I think I'm gonna lose my cookies. If anything, this is a "center-left country"...especially when it comes to social issues (and more conservative when it comes to economic issues). I just think that that term is used without any scientific studies to back it up. None at all.

I don't think that either campaign has much momentum right now. Obama is staying aggressive with the buys into AZ, GA, and ND, but they're running out the clock in the true swing states.

McCain is scrambling to show signs of life in the battlegrounds, and making up internal numbers that suggest that it's closer in states where Obama is comfortably ahead (IA).

At this stage, Rick Davis is just trying to keep McCain voters from staying home on the 4th because they think it's a lost cause. David Plouffe is trying to make sure Obama voters go to the polls on the 4th, instead of thinking that it's already in the bag.

Momentum or no momentum, I'd much rather be Plouffe than Davis right now.