The crisis has affected the real estate market in unexpected ways

01.06.2016

The real estate market is asleep now, but it is not excluded that will soon Wake up. The decrease in the number of mortgage programs and the refusal of the Russians staying abroad are reflected on it in different directions. In addition, we found a huge number of idle office space. Will act as property prices in the future – a subject for great conversation.

Almost all players in the real estate market note: the shaft after the sales in December in the spring lull. Now sales go not so actively, but many developers and realtors are confident that by the end, and even by the autumn of 2015, the situation will return to normal. But the incident crisis lull developers can use to their advantage, revising its outdated approach to architecture and home design and be accustomed to new customer needs.

The primary market is devastated

The requests became more modest, 90-ies of gold and ambition are gone. Today’s young buyers, say developers have a good taste”

The premium housing market in a crisis even he has improved: prices fell, and eventually even moved to the frozen projects, which have already put a cross. It is assumed that the percentage of transactions will increase in the second half of 2015.

However, the financial turmoil has had a predictable negative impact on demand. The reduction in the number of transactions in all segments of the real estate market, and most of all in economy class, contributed to, firstly, the increase in mortgage rates, and second, the decline in real incomes. Mortgages seriously entertained the market. “More than 60% of all transactions in the economy before the crisis took place with the assistance of mortgage loans, in business class, the mortgage was about 30% in elite – not more than 10%”, – said the newspaper LOOK the head of the Agency NVM Business Consulting Natalia Moskaleva.

In the first half of 2015, the demand for residential properties in different segments is reduced by 30-40% compared to the same period in 2014, said the expert. “After a small decline in the key rate and the stabilization of the ruble at the end of March, there was a trend to increase in demand. But in the summer, as it usually happens, the market is worth. The buyer took a wait and see attitude, taking the best of the autumn decline in prices in the primary market and discounts from developers,” says Moskaleva. But the global decline in prices for primary housing in the near future is foreseen, because the cost of construction will increase, and this will have an impact on the final price for the buyers. But the canopy free offer on the secondary market contributes to a significant correction in prices down, he said.

Indeed, in December 2014 there was a flurry of purchases of property, people rushed not only for TVs and refrigerators. “For example, my friend from Rostov the realtor said that there were even bought up all the rooms in the center of the city – just because people wanted to invest. And they increased prices”, – cites the example of a lawyer and founder of the service maintenance of real estate transactions Prime Quality Sergey Vishnyakov. However, in January all died, the loans have risen, consumer demand has fallen. And the sellers began to hold real estate to understand what is happening with the market and currency.

“In December of 2014, sales were higher than December 2013 three times! – told the newspaper LOOK the head of project consulting “BEST new Building” Tatyana Sharova. – Then from January to March was the fall, and I’m surprised that developers are surprised by this. Washed demand, the crisis in the yard, so the situation is quite logical”.

Secondary: continuous emotions

In General, says Sergey Vishnyakov, the secondary housing market is more exposed to psychology and not logic. “At first people were selling actively, I thought that coming collapse, some kind of global collapse. I was afraid that after strong demand will be a sharp decline. Then the mortgage dramatically imploded, and spring sales were inactive. Helped support the state of the market buildings, went to some kind of activity. The government has promised to subsidize part of interest rates, that is, banks issued credits to natural persons under 12 percent and the remaining percent taken by the state”, – he declared in interview to the newspaper VIEW. According to him, this system worked from March to July, and this time went for more outflow on the secondary market – the buyer, supporting yourself with a loan, went to take a primary. Banks recognized that state support is not much help new home sales.

“Recently, the secondary housing market is behaving unconventionally. According to the usual statistics, in the summer must be calm: we all go to foreign countries and dachas. This time it is not so. Vacations abroad has become expensive for many, some people do not produce, and, apparently, those customers came to the market: the whole of June there is a demand. Simultaneously, the sellers will market held in the winter and spring options. Now, many sellers assume that the decline will continue, and try to avoid the hypothetical losses in the future. And buyers perked up, because I’m trying to implement spring deferred demand and to avoid losses from a possible further fall of the ruble. Pent-up demand arose because in the spring the offer on the market decreased, there was a lot of inappropriate options “curves” documents or risky schemes transaction. To buy something normal was difficult. Now options more, they are more decent, so buyers who are unable to buy an apartment in the spring, do it now,” – emphasizes the expert.

As for the price, ironically, in the secondary housing market they did not fall, but rose slightly. “In may the average cost of a square was in the area of 182 thousand rubles, today – in the area of 188 thousand. Yes, maybe this is the final push, and July-August will be quite dim. By the way, last year everyone was also waiting for the fall market – like all the money is already spent. But it happened in October, and found that people have money, they started buying in droves. At the end of last autumn, prices of some rooms in Moscow increased up to 30%! The market is now, of course, acts out this non-standard growth. Naturally, rates will now be aligned, to come to some kind of normal state,” – concluded Vishnyakov.

Rent: freedom of choice

At the end of last year, realtors have noticed that the rental market is not very adequate. Then the tenants could not rent a house at an affordable price, the landlords complained that they can’t rent an apartment. Now this sector has stabilized. “All that was purchased in December 2014, is now offered to the rental market, explains the situation Vishnyakov. – Growing competition, prices are falling, finally, became less willing to remove accommodation. There is a possibility to rent an apartment cheaply and even it off”. The reason, experts say, including the departure from the capital of a certain part of non-resident citizens: in a crisis people have lost their jobs in Moscow and began to come back to their city. “There are examples when people who have a good business in Moscow, rent an apartment here for a few people, people are trying to cut costs. In General, the stratification of the consumer audience very large,” – said the expert.

With regard to commercial real estate now empty and up to 20% of the area, which are usually leased. The head of “NDV-group” Alexander Khrustalev in conversation with the correspondent of the newspaper OPINION noted that “two years later, sales of office real estate and will stop at all”. He believes that Russian businessmen should consider the development of new technologically advanced businesses, when offices are probably will not be so necessary (as, in fact, occurs, for example, in East Asia).

Good taste and a threat to “the ghetto”

Developers should think not only about successful sales, but also about the future, says Tatiana Sharova. “Now the main risk is that the glut in the market of uniform architectural concepts, planning solutions. The results of current activities will be visible in two years, when the market can reach a huge number of similar projects, with similar areas and layouts, that’s what we need to worry”, – the expert believes. Now is the time to create a product of a new quality, not raising endlessly similar “street of Builders”, which confused the hero of the film “Irony of fate”. By the way, now to combat the monotony of is the development of integrated projects, not only when thought out layout of apartments and houses, but also the whole infrastructure around. As already noted by the city authorities, the goal is to make the city more convenient that people can live, work and play in one place without wasting your time on moving in traffic. This trend, according to Ball, is observed in the luxury segment, and in business class, and economy options. Another trend is the combination in one project of housing economy and business class. The developers themselves against sharp separation of economy projects and business housing, it can create in the city a kind of “ghetto”, this can not be allowed.

Another trend of the property market – turn the client to the house at the square. Now the most liquid products Studio from 27 to 33 square meters, 1 bedroom from 38 to 44 m, “dvushki” from 55 to 67 m), three-pointers from 73 to 85 m. has no fans grandiosity of housing, which bought the apartment in the 300 squares, the current client is limited to a maximum of 100-110 squares. This is partly due to the changing lifestyle: the citizens ceased to live in large families, prefer to disperse to purchase a separate housing for grown children or aging parents, and this large square to anything.

This applies to all real estate sectors. The client began to think more about the functionality of the housing. If earlier buyers of real estate have attracted, for example, complex architectural form of the building and apartments, but now this “show off” the buyer got cold: it turned out to be inconvenient (few Windows, the irregular shape of the rooms, expensive repairs, and so on). From the pretentiousness of the facades of the developers, sensing the mood of the customers, will gradually go. Almost no one is willing to buy a house with incredible architecture in the Empire style, the requests became more modest, 90-ies of gold and ambition are gone. Today’s young buyers, say developers have a good taste.

Clients “claim”, of course, sometimes there. But, says Deputy Director of the company URBAN group Leonard Blinov, apartments unusual formats – rather, it is not an investment, and the possibility of expression of the buyer, they are purchased for himself and not for subsequent sale or lease. Demand is for two-storey or duplex apartments, lofts, equality, round the apartment and even apartments on the bridge. “There is a completely new format “hobby apartments. It is popular, for example, in Germany. In this apartment a lot of multifunctional non-residential space to residential premises joins a large dark room with no Windows, sell it to the client half the cost, most of these flats are built on the first floor. They residents whether to create for themselves a musical or theatrical studios, workshops, gym, library, or office,” said pancakes the newspaper VIEW.

Another trend: in the case of selection of the customers prefer to call in and be live immediately, therefore, increasingly choose the option of finish. “Now generally buy a number of rooms, not square footage. Don’t want to make alterations, to make their own partitions. The dominant market segment in the coming years will be apartments already with proper planning, done, ” said the architect, managing partner at Porter Architects, co-founder of the development company HWD Sasha Lukic, the newspaper VIEW. – In the world generally don’t hire designers for the economy, it is unreasonable. The apartment is typically already made flooring, tiles, white walls, high, what you need to do is paint the walls or Wallpaper pokleit”. What else you need to think developers from the point of view of the expert-the architect, so that the internal space of the housing. It is more correct to think of the layout of apartments future home with furniture placement, possible free and functional space around, then all of it to enclose in the drawing the walls, then build the apartments in the house structure and “stick” it on the facade of the building. By the way, in this case, the unused area of the apartment is only 5-7%, not 30%. Important trends: a balcony in the apartment needed if it is functional, that is great to be able to put there garden furniture, not as a pantry. But inside the apartment definitely need storage space, including space for Bicycle storage is a current lifestyle, stresses Sasha Lukich. And in the bathrooms should be designed plumbing and space for washing machine.

Stop panicking

Now many buyers in the housing market is the so-called wait-and-see stance in the hope of a very significant correction of prices in the fall to the downside. But we have to be objective: despite the crisis, the ruble prices will still rise, it is necessary to take into account the inflation indices and the increase of construction costs, and higher borrowing costs of unfinished construction objects. Natalia Moskaleva advised not to do the sales and purchases of real estate on an emotional background, when panic. “A balanced approach to the selection of the object. The priority must be the objects ready for delivery or at the final stages of construction from developers whose reputation has been proven for years of active work, as well as developers who have the financing from largest Russian banks. Please, for additional discounts and installments from sellers of real estate, in the summer they can be from 10 to 25%,” she said. But to consider as investments too cheap housing in a remote area, expert advises – in the future it will be difficult to implement or to rent out.

“The market is gradually stabiliziruemost. I feel that July will be a lively and, perhaps, of transactions on the secondary real estate market will more than usual. Country the property is now sold very poorly, for the main audience of buyers is not a necessity. Rather, customers are willing to invest in an apartment”, – says Sergey Vishnyakov.

“Now we close the second quarter of this year, and we can say about April-June, sales decreased by about 40%, is the market in General. But nothing terrible, as it was in the crisis of 2008 does not happen, – says Tatiana Sharova. – Then the collapse occurred at lightning speed, and this one was not ready. Now we were ready for a crisis, and it more protracted and stretched. According to our forecasts, in the fall the market will start to feel a little more confidence”.