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Netanyahu Fades in Contest to Lead Israel

The patient quest of Benjamin Netanyahu to regain the job of prime minister now seems likely to end not only in defeat but possibly in disaster. Polls show that he could lose by 20 points or more in the Likud Party primary on Thursday.

''Now we are fighting for his life, his political existence,'' one anonymous Netanyahu aide said today in the daily Maariv, raising the question of how much damage has been done in this race to Mr. Netanyahu's political touch and future career.

While the polls, political experts and even some of Mr. Netanyahu's aides could yet be proved wrong, this campaign was not supposed to end this way for the articulate and telegenic Mr. Netanyahu. Having served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, he was viewed by many in Likud -- not least himself -- as a prime-minister-in-waiting for the past two years.

But experts say he has been, to a surprising degree, unable to overcome two major obstacles in the compacted, monthlong campaign, which got under way after Labor left the government and Mr. Netanyahu joined as foreign minister.

The second is Mr. Sharon himself, the plain-speaking prime minister, who has proven more nimble than many here thought. He has ceded little ground to the younger Mr. Netanyahu, whom he has skewered with a deft, grandfatherly touch.

The campaign dynamic between the Likud titans was on display at a cabinet meeting on Sunday, three days after a suicide bombing, the first in Jerusalem for months, killed 11 people. Mr. Sharon, 74, smothered Mr. Netanyahu, 53, in a verbal embrace, praising him for visiting the wounded in hospitals, with foreign ambassadors and television cameras in tow.

''I would like to congratulate the foreign minister on the extensive p.r. effort he has carried out since the latest terror attack,'' said Mr. Sharon, who rarely visits the wounded or bombing sites. ''I would especially mention your inviting the ambassadors to the hospital. I view this as an extremely important step.''

With a few subtle words, Mr. Sharon had portrayed Mr. Netanyahu as a mere communicator, a chaser of ambulances and headlines, while he, Mr. Sharon, handled the real work. Mr. Netanyahu could manage only a quiet ''Thank you very much.''

Yaron Ezrahi, a political science professor at Hebrew University, said, ''In this very serious security situation, Sharon, despite his failure to put out terror over the last two years, appears a much more credible, experienced and serious commander in chief than Netanyahu.''

By contrast, Mr. Ezrahi said, Mr. Netanyahu's ''identity is not as a military leader but as an explainer, a propagandist for Israel.''

But Mr. Ezrahi and others say the dynamic is not merely stylistic. It turns, as ever in Israeli politics, on the positions the two men take on the conflict with the Palestinians, in particular the past two years of fighting -- which has not stopped suicide bombing.

In the course of the campaign, Mr. Netanyahu has helped transform Mr. Sharon, one of the nation's most aggressive generals, into something that seemed unlikely a year ago: a politician near the center of the debate among Israelis.

Mr. Netanyahu's strategy for the primary was to stake out a position to the right of even Mr. Sharon, flatly opposing the formation of a Palestinian state. Mr. Sharon warily says he could support one under certain circumstances.

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Mr. Sharon's relative moderation on this issue -- pushed, to be sure, by the Bush administration -- holds some appeal in the Israeli population at large. Likud's opponent, the Labor Party, just picked as its leader Amram Mitzna, a former general who wants to reopen talks with the Palestinians immediately. The general election is in January.

Even within Likud, some polls show that at least half of its members, while not liking a Palestinian state, would support one if it stopped this wearying, endless conflict.

''The underlying current is that people want to hope for something,'' Mr. Ezrahi said. ''And Netanyahu is not a messenger of hope.''

Experts say Mr. Netanyahu -- whose mystique rose after he declined to run for prime minister in 2001, when he probably could have won -- has made several mistakes that have reinforced his image as being not quite credible.

He began his campaign against Mr. Sharon on economic issues, but switched to security matters and, when that did not work, to the issue of a Palestinian state. A campaign slogan that advertised ''only four suicide bombings'' in his term as prime minister angered many, because it implied that Mr. Sharon was responsible for the increase in attacks, while most Israelis blame the Palestinian leader, Yasir Arafat.

Considered a politician with an Americanized obsession with polling and image, matching his flawless American English, Mr. Netanyahu was caught on tape in the campaign advising a television crew on the best angle to film him from.

Mr. Netanyahu's supporters complain that he has been savaged by the news media, adding that while he continues to suffer from questions about his credibility, the real issue is more basic: Mr. Sharon's popularity and incumbency at a time when Israel is essentially at war.

''Netanyahu started from a very problematic position: to challenge Ariel Sharon in his own party,'' said Yuval Steinitz, a member of the Knesset and prominent Netanyahu supporter. ''And Sharon was clever enough to make use of all the power of the office and all his capacity as party leader to make it more difficult.''

A Netanyahu campaign adviser, Ron Dermer, argued that Likud voters still see him as a potential top leader but want the immediate benefits of having both Mr. Sharon and Mr. Netanyahu in the same government (assuming he stays on as foreign minister, though that prospect is uncertain).

Mr. Netanyahu's political future may hinge on what happens in the days after the election, assuming Mr. Sharon wins. Will his spread of defeat be less than polls suggest now? Will he be offered the foreign minister's job again? If so, how well will he cooperate with Mr. Sharon, at a time when the Bush administration is pushing a ''road map'' to peace that calls for a Palestinian state by 2003?

''He likes politics,'' said Gabriel Sheffer, also a political scientist at Hebrew University. ''He will try to make a comeback.''

But Mr. Sheffer raised the case of Ehud Barak, the Labor prime minister who beat Mr. Netanyahu in 1999, only to lose to Mr. Sharon two years later. ''Barak wants to be involved in politics too, but he realizes there are lots of obstacles,'' Mr. Sheffer said. ''People don't like losers.''

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A version of this article appears in print on November 28, 2002, on Page A00008 of the National edition with the headline: Netanyahu Fades in Contest to Lead Israel. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe