There are Members of the European Parliament who do not belong to any of these groups, and these are known as non-iscrits.

To form a group, there are two threshholds to pass:

One-thirtieth of the total membership (i.e. 25 MEPs) and

MEPs from one-fourth of the member nations (i.e. 7 nations)

Looking at the latest poll (for 23 April) we have:

Country

EPP

PASD

ALDE

Grn/EFA

ECR

EUL/NGL

EFD

NI

Total

Austria

5

5

2

2

0

0

0

4

18

Belgium

4

5

4

6

0

1

0

1

21

Bulgaria

6

6

2

0

0

0

0

3

17

Croatia

3

2

3

1

0

1

0

1

11

Cyprus

3

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

6

Czech Republic

3

6

0

0

1

5

0

6

21

Denmark

0

3

4

1

0

1

4

0

13

Estonia

1

2

3

0

0

0

0

0

6

Finland

2

2

3

1

0

1

4

0

13

France

21

16

6

5

0

5

1

20

74

Germany

39

27

4

10

0

7

0

9

96

Greece

6

1

0

0

0

8

1

5

21

Hungary

10

5

0

1

0

0

0

5

21

Ireland

4

1

3

0

0

3

0

0

11

Italy

22

27

0

0

0

0

4

20

73

Latvia

2

1

0

0

1

2

0

2

8

Lithuania

2

5

2

0

0

0

2

0

11

Luxembourg

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

6

Malta

3

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

Netherlands

4

2

8

1

2

3

0

6

26

Poland

22

9

2

0

18

0

0

0

51

Portugal

8

10

0

0

0

3

0

0

21

Romania

11

13

6

0

0

0

0

2

32

Slovakia

4

6

1

0

1

0

1

0

13

Slovenia

4

0

1

0

0

0

0

3

8

Spain

20

17

2

4

0

6

0

5

54

Sweden

5

6

3

3

0

2

0

1

20

United Kingdom

0

26

3

5

18

1

19

1

73

We can look at the 94 non-iscrits in this list:

Country

Party

Predicted MEPs

In current Parliament?

European party

Austria

Freedom Party

4

Yes

European Alliance for Freedom

Belgium

Flemish Interest

1

Yes

European Alliance for Freedom

Bulgaria

Bulgaria Without Censorship

2

No

None

Alternative for Bulgarian Revival

1

No

None

Croatia

Alliance for Croatia*

1

No

European Alliance of National Movements

None

Czech Republic

Yes 2011

6

No

None

France

National Front

20

Yes

European Alliance for Freedom

Germany

Alternative for Germany

6

No

None

Pirate Party

2

No

None

National Democrats

1

No

None

Greece

The River

3

No

None

Golden Dawn

2

No

None

Hungary

Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik)

5

Yes

European Alliance of National Movements

Italy

Five Star Movement

20

No

None

Latvia

Union of Greens & Farmers

2

No

European Green Party

Netherlands

Party for Freedom

4

Yes

European Alliance for Freedom

50 Plus

1

No

None

Party for the Animals

1

No

None

Romania

People's Party – Dan Diaconescu

2

No

None

Slovenia

Slovenian National Party

2

No

None

I Believe! Dr Igor Šoltes List

1

No

None

Spain

Union, Progress & Democracy

4

Yes

None

Party of the Citizenry

1

No

None

Sweden

Sweden Democrats

1

No

None

United Kingdom

Democratic Unionist Party

1

Yes

None

[* This is a collection of parties forming an electoral pact, of which the Croatian Party of Rights is - along with the British National Party - part of the European Alliance of National Movements]

Now, these would be the non-iscrits right after the election, bearing in mind that many of them are from parties with no MEPs at the moment, and hence no parliamentary grouping. Various things can happen:

Such a party could find that it and other non-iscrits now pass the two threshholds to form a grouping

If we look at the existing groupings we have (numbers in bold show the thressholds being passed):

Group

MEPs

Countries

EPP

217

26

PASD

208

27

ALDE

63

20

EUL/NGL

51

16

Grn/EFA

41

13

ECR

41

6

EFD

36

8

Notice which one of those numbers isn't in bold. When the Parliament assembles, the European Conservatives & Reformists will find themselves having fallen below the second threshhold, and therefore ceasing to exist as a grouping, unless they get members from another country. Mildly Eurosceptic parties like Yes 2011 and Alternative for Germany might choose to bring the ECR back over that threshhold, but don't take it for granted.

In the absence of that, the Conservatives (along with the Ulster Unionist Party) will find themselves as non-iscrits, at the back with the Democratic Unionist Party. None of the entitlements that come from being part of a grouping, just on the fringes. And that will be for 5 years, until May 2019. If David Cameron remains Prime Minister after the May 2015 general election, it would be quite interesting for him to negotiate for his referendum while his MEPs are just a small bunch of non-iscrits.

In that case, Cameron has to decide who to turn to - UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage or German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He could ask for the Conservative MEPs to join the Europe of Freedom & Democracy, at a heavy price. Immediate referendum? Standing down in some constituencies to allow UKIP to get its first MPs?

When Cameron became leader back in December 2005, one of his aims was to pull the Conservatives out of the European People's Party/European Democrats grouping in the Parliament. To have to go to Merkel and arrange re-forming the old EPP/ED grouping would be a humiliation. He will have failed at one of his key ambitions. Imagine the response from his more Eurosceptic backbenchers.

Finishing third is not the catastrophe that faces the Conservatives. It's the 5 years that follow....