Performify's Picks for Houston's UFC 69 Event

Don’t forget to expand the column with the “Read the rest of this entry” link to read my analysis for all of the night’s fights.

Matt Serra (+800) vs. Georges St. Pierre (-950 Bodog)

I’m not going to spend a lot of time writing up this fight. Despite being the headliner, it’s such an uncompetitive fight that it simply does not warrant any sort of detailed analysis.

This is St. Pierre’s ninth fight in the Octagon already, and his first title defense since his domination of Matt Hughes at UFC 65. St. Pierre sports a 13-1 MMA record (7-1 UFC) with his lone loss to Matt Hughes at UFC 50 in October 2004. St. Pierre made his UFC debut way back in January 2004, defeating Karo Parisyan by unanimous decision. Since then GSP has reeled off six consecutive wins, and there’s nothing here that makes me think St. Pierre isn’t going to cruise to his seventh consecutive UFC victory.

The UFC is going out of its way to highlight Matt Serra’s supposedly “dangerous” submission skills. Serra has nine fights in the UFC, with a 5-4 UFC record (8-4 MMA overall). Of those nine UFC fights, Serra has exactly one win by submission — way back in March 2002 at UFC 36. At the event, Serra defeated a relatively unknown fighter named Kelly Dullanty (4-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) by triangle choke in the first round. Beyond that submission victory five years ago, Serra has four other UFC wins: a majority decision (meaning two of three judges scored the fight with Serra the winner), two unanimous decisions, and in his most recent UFC appearance, a split decision over Chris Lytle at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale.

Serra couldn’t even secure a unanimous decision to set up this title fight, let alone win the fight by stoppage. Frankly, Serra has no business being in the Octagon tomorrow against St. Pierre. I understand this fight was a condition of winning the welterweight class of The Ultimate Fighter 4. However, Serra has essentially no chance of making this fight remotely competitive, let alone winning it. Look for St. Pierre to put on even more of a clinic than he did against Matt Hughes at UFC 65. St. Pierre by TKO in the first round.

Leonard Garcia (+525 Bodog) vs. Roger Huerta (-610)

This lightweight battle could actually be the best fight on the entire card.

Roger Huerta is a well-regarded Miletich fighter with a 16-1-1 MMA record (2-0 UFC). Huerta made his UFC debut on the undercard of “UFC 63: Hughes vs. Penn,” defeating Jason Dent by unanimous decision. Huerta won the IFC and ISKA lightweight and welterweight titles in 2005, and is on a 12-fight win streak after his only loss in mid-2004.

We last saw Huerta at UFC 67 in early February, where he secured a decisive but somewhat controversial win over John Halverson; while Halverson was on the ground, Huerta threw a knee that either hit Halverson in the head (which would be illegal) or the shoulder (which would be perfectly legal). Halverson collapsed to the floor after the knee, Huerta jumped on his back, and the fight was stopped in only 19 seconds. Huerta is back to prove that his win was no fluke and faces local Texas-based fighter Leonard Garcia.

Garcia, a UFC newcomer, sports a 9-1 MMA record, mostly in the Colorado-based Ring of Fire series, where he held the organization’s lightweight championship. He was originally scheduled to face Spencer “The King” Fisher back at UFC 60 (Hughes vs. Gracie) in May 2006. However, Garcia suffered a broken fibula in training for that fight and was replaced on the card by Matt Wiman. This is Garcia’s first fight back from the injury.

Huerta is very explosive and very well rounded, possessing serious strikes on his feet and a solid submissions game. Garcia is very much a mirror image of Huerta in fight styles — explosive striking, very well rounded, very well versed in submissions. Huerta’s two UFC fights — even if one lasted just 19 seconds — is still a major edge in experience. First time Octagon jitters are a very real thing, as fighters can be very affected by the major adrenaline dump that comes from stepping in under the UFC lights for the first time, regardless of any previous experience in smaller venues. Both fighters train with great camps. Huerta trains with Miletich, as previously mentioned. Garcia recently signed on with one of the better MMA camps to prepare for this fight (Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico), and he was impressive enough to be signed to become an official part of Jackson’s team. Garcia should also have the crowd behind him as a local fighter. While he didn’t get a tremendous response at the weigh-ins today, when he’s announced for the fight, it should be clearer that he’s from Texas, and I expect the crowd should jump behind him at that time.

Huerta is known as a very aggressive fighter, and Garcia feels that he’s found a hole in Huerta’s game: that he can attack the aggressive fighter with his ground skills and secure a win by submission. I’m very much looking forward to this fight, and I think that Garcia at +525 (available on Bodog.com) represents a decent underdog bet here. At +525 Garcia is only being offered a 16% chance to win this fight, and while Huerta looked dominant in his last outing, he should not be a 84% favorite over a serious threat like Garcia, in my opinion. Garcia by submission in the second round in what should hopefully be a great fight.

Josh Koscheck (+185 Bodog) vs. Diego Sanchez (-210)

Josh “Kos” Koscheck versus Sanchez is already being nominated “Fight of the Year” even before it’s happened. Suffice to say that there is some serious hype and some serious expectations on both of these young fighters.

Koscheck comes into the fight with an 8-1 MMA record, 6-1 in the UFC. “Kos” is of course the former NCAA wrestling standout who was a strong competitor on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. After making a strong run, Koscheck was ultimately beaten by Sanchez in the second semifinal match of the show’s middleweight bracket. Koscheck’s lone professional loss was via submission to Drew Fickett at UFC Fight Night 2 back in October 2005. Koscheck was controlling the fight most of the way, and then got caught with a knee late in the third round while shooting in for yet another takedown. Fickett capitalized, jumping on his back and securing the comeback win by rear naked choke. Since the loss, Koscheck has four wins in the UFC, two of them first round submission victories (Ansar Chalangov at UFC Fight Night 4 and Jonathan Goulet at UFC Fight Night 6) and two of them unanimous decision wins (over Dave Menne at UFC Fight Night 5 and most recently over Jeff Joslin at UFC Fight Night 7 back in December 2006).

Few people realize exactly how accomplished a wrestling background Koscheck actually holds. Koscheck went 42-0 in 2001 and was the NCAA Division I National Champion that year in the 174-pound weight class. “Kos” was honored as the Wrestler of the Year three times by his conference and was a four-time conference champion and also a four-time Division I All-American. Koscheck trains with the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) team out of San Jose, Calif.

Koscheck has been pretty widely criticized as a “lay and pray” fighter in the past, even to the point of Sanchez stopping by Koscheck’s MySpace page to call him a “human blanket” as previously reported here on MMAjunkie.com. Koscheck has shown marked improvement in several of his recent fights — especially the Goulet fight — before taking a bit of a step backward in his most recent fight with Joslin.

Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez was the winner of the middleweight division of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, courtesy of a dramatic first round knockout of Kenny Florian at The Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale. Sanchez has built an impressive 17-0 MMA record (6-0 UFC), with wins over Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan, and most recently, a dramatic first round knockout of Joe Riggs at UFC Fight Night 7 in December 2006.

Sanchez trains with Greg Jackson’s camp out of New Mexico, and also trains under conditioning coach Rob Garcia. For this fight, Sanchez has also spent some time training with boxing legend Oscar De La Hoya. Sanchez holds a black belt in Greg Jackson’s martial arts style known as Gaidojutsu, and he also previously held the welterweight title in the King of the Cage organization.

This is a really tough fight to call. Koscheck has a tremendous takedown and elite wrestling ability, and has started to effectively add strikes on the ground to his arsenal. Sanchez is skilled in submissions and is a tremendously strong and fast striker on his feet. Ultimately, I think this line is very well set. I would set Sanchez at almost exactly a two-to-one favorite to win this fight, right where the line is currently set. Koscheck certainly has a very good chance of winning. He can probably get Sanchez down and can certainly control him there to an extent. Sanchez still has a dangerous guard with the ability to submit Koscheck from his back, and certainly has the explosiveness to sweep or scramble out. Koscheck could regress to his “lay and pray” past and just try to get the fight to the ground and keep it there, mounting just enough offense to keep from getting stood up. This would put him in less danger of getting swept or submitted, but it wouldn’t be real popular with the fans, for sure. Koscheck probably won’t want to trade with Sanchez extensively on their feet, but he has shown improved striking in his last few fights. This should be a tremendously exciting fight, and I have a feeling we’re going to be wishing this was a five round fight by the time this is over. I’m going to predict Sanchez wins the fight in the third round by TKO, but I expect it’s going to be close the entire way and could certainly go to a decision.

Yushin Okami (+115 Bodog) vs. Mike Swick (-125)

This is a fight among two hard-charging middleweights, and the winner of this fight will likely see a title shot in the near future. Both Okami and Swick are undefeated in the Octagon, with Okami winning all three of his fights in the UFC, and Swick with a 5-0 record in the UFC.

Yushin Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground-and-pound fighter. Okami was first in the UFC on the undercard of UFC 62 (Liddell vs. Sobral), where he beat Alan Belcher by unanimous decision, and then for the second time at UFC 64 (Silva vs. Franklin), where he TKO’d former The Ultimate Fighter cast member Kalib Starnes, again on the undercard. Most recently Okami defeated another veteran of the reality show in Rory Singer via strikes at UFC 66 (Ortiz vs. Liddell). Okami was a highly ranked middleweight in the Japanese organization Pancrase and recently ranked as high as third in that division before moving to the UFC. Okami has had fights against some strong talent, including Anderson Silva and a very tough Jake Shields. He sports a 19-3 MMA record overall and was 6-1 in MMA in 2006 (with his only loss a split decision to the aforementioned Shields in Rumble On the Rock 9).

“Quick” Mike Swick sports a 10-1 MMA record and, as previously mentioned, is 5-0 in the UFC. Swick has wins over Joe Riggs and most recently defeated David “The Crow” Loiseau at UFC 63 (Hughes vs. Penn). Swick is known for his hand speed and has a well-deserved reputation for aggression in the ring, winning his first two UFC fights in just 20 seconds and 22 seconds, and his following two UFC fights in 2:09 and 2:19. Like Koscheck, Swick trains with the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA). He damaged ligaments in his right hand during the fight with Loiseau, and this is his first fight back after a six-month layoff.

This fight should be a great test for both fighters. We really haven’t seen Swick tested much in the UFC; his first four fights were quick and one-sided, and then the Loiseau that Swick mostly manhandled at UFC 63 was a shell of his former self after his demolition at the hands of Rich Franklin at UFC 58. Swick is originally from Texas and should be a very strong crowd favorite over the Japanese fighter.

Personally I think this fight is too close to call. Swick did not look great in defeating Loiseau; he looked pretty good for the first two rounds, but Loiseau made a very strong push in the third round and looked like he might be able to pull out a victory in the end. However, this might have been due to the ligament damage Swick sustained during their fight. It’s hard to say. There are also two other potential worries here: ring rust due to Swick’s six month break from fighting, and the possibility of overtraining due to a combination of his long layoff from fighting and his longer-than-average eight-week training camp in preparation for this fight.

We do know that Okami is a slower paced, methodical fighter and seems to get stronger as the fight goes on. If Okami can weather the initial rush from Swick and frustrate him early, we could very well see Okami pull out the upset in the third round. I wouldn’t put any serious action on this fight. There’s just not enough of an edge. Swick could very easily end this fight early. However, I will call Okami by strikes (ground and pound) in the third round.

Alan Belcher (+135) vs. Kendall Grove (-155)

Alan “The Talent” Belcher is a young, well rounded fighter with a 9-2 overall MMA record, 1-1 in the UFC. Belcher’s first UFC fight was against Yushin Okami at UFC 62, where he lost a unanimous decision. Belcher most recently faced Jorge Santiago at UFC Fight Night 7, knocking out the American Top Team fighter with a dramatic high kick midway through the third round. He’s big for a middleweight, much like Rich Franklin, walking around at 205 pounds normally. Belcher actually tried out for the third season of The Ultimate Fighter — the season that Grove won — but didn’t make the cut for the show. I’m sure you’ll hear that mentioned during the broadcast as back story.

Kendall “Da Spider” Grove is the middleweight winner of the third season of The Ultimate Fighter and is a member of Tito Ortiz’s Team Punishment. He sports a 7-3 MMA record but is 2-0 in the UFC and has made dramatic improvement since joining up with Team Punishment. Grove is also very big for a middleweight — not in weight, in height at 6-foot-6. Grove has four inches of height on Belcher and a decent reach advantage.

I’m a fan of Grove, and I think this is a decent line for us to attack. Belcher is certainly Grove’s toughest test to date. However, Team Punishment fighters always come into a fight in great shape and very well prepared. Belcher has a decent record but really hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The two biggest names on his resume are both losses: to Okami and to Marvin Eastman. I think we see Grove take another step forward in his career here defeating a solid opponent in Belcher. Kendall Grove by decision.

UNDERCARD

Brad Imes (+235) vs. Heath Herring (-275)

Heath “Texas Crazy Horse” Herring previously said that one of the main reasons he left the PRIDE organization was that he wanted to fight in the U.S. again, in front of his hometown fans. The Texas native gets his chance here, facing down former The Ultimate Fighter castmember and former University of Missouri football player Brad Imes.

Imes has a 5-2 professional MMA record: five wins outside of the UFC, and two losses inside the UFC, including his defeat at the hands of Rashad Evans on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 2. Imes subsequently lost to Dan Christison on UFC Fight Night 4 and was bounced from the UFC. Imes put together two wins in a row outside the UFC and has been invited back — likely due to the lack of any sort of competition in the UFC’s thin heavyweight division.

Herring has a 26-12 MMA record but is 0-1 in the UFC after his inauspicious debut loss to Jake O’Brien at UFC Fight Night 8. Herring is a sambo fighter you might know better as the fighter who knocked out his opponent pre-fight after getting kissed on the lips during the introductions. Herring’s MMA experience goes all the way back to 1997. With such an extensive record and having been in the sport almost 10 years, Herring would seem to be a grizzled old veteran. Not so. While the veteran part applies, he’s only 28 years old and still very much in the prime of his career.

Herring has faced top-tier opponents in organizations as diverse as PRIDE, K1, Pankration, Vale Tudo and the Unified Shoot Wrestling Federation (USWF). In PRIDE, Herring has had the honor of losing to some of the best of the best: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (twice, Pride 17 in ’01 and Pride Critical Countown in ’04), Fedor Emelianenko (PRIDE 23 in ’02), Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (PRIDE 26 in ’03). Herring also sports wins over some serious names: Mark Kerr at PRIDE 15 in ’01, he choked out “Giant” Silva at PRIDE Shockwave in ’03, defeated Hirotaka Yokoi at PRIDE 28 in ’04, and most impressively won a unanimous decision over “Ice Cold” Igor Vovchanchyn (45-9-1 MMA) at PRIDE 19 in ’02.

Herring has a significant edge in MMA experience, having almost 40 fights to his name and also having fought top-tier talent all across the world. Herring is also very quick and very agile for a big man. Despite how bad Herring looked in his first fight, Herring is a well rounded fighter. While his background is in wrestling and his main area of study was sambo, he trained Muay Thai under the legendary Cor Hammers in Holland. Imes is being brought in here pretty much to lose to Herring. The UFC made a decent investment in Herring to steal him away from PRIDE (prior to the buyout, obviously), and Imes here should be a pretty easy fight for Herring. Imes will get taken down, and Herring will attack those long limbs. Herring by submission in the first round.

Pete Sell (+230) vs. Thales Leites (-270)

Thales Leites is a well regarded Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter with a world-class ground game. Leites came in to the UFC with a 9-0 record. However, Leites was defeated in his UFC debut by Martin Kampmann (15-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale back in November 2006.

Pete Sell (aka “Drago”) was a castmember of The Ultimate Fighter 4, where he was defeated in the semifinals by ultimate series winner Travis Lutter. (I can still hear Matt Serra calling out “remember your foot stomps, Drago.”) Sell has a 7-2 record overall but is 1-2 in the UFC after knockout losses to Nate Quarry at the first UFC Fight Night and Scott Smith at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, after winning his UFC debut against “New York Badass” Phil Baroni. The loss to Smith was one of the more memorable fights in recent UFC history. Sell caught Smith with a hard shot to the body, doubling him over. As Sell rushed in to capitalize, Smith unleashed a wicked right hook and knocked Sell out clean before collapsing to the floor himself.

Sell has decent ground skills, training under Matt Serra. However, Sell’s ground game is nowhere near that of Leites. Sell should have the edge on the feet, so itï¿&frac12;s only really a matter of seeing if Leites can take the fight to the ground without getting knocked out on the way in, or caught in a quick submission during the first takedown. Once the fight goes down, Leites should be able to submit Sell. Leites by submission in the first round.

Pete Spratt (+280) vs. Marcus Davis (-330)

Marcus Davis, the “Irish Hand Grenade,” comes in with a 10-3 MMA record, 2-1 in the UFC. In his UFC debut, he lost to Melvin Guillard due to a cut at The Ultimate Fighter 2 Finale. Davis then left the UFC, wrapping up five wins in smaller shows, before bouncing back to defeat Forrest Petz with a first round submission on the undercard of the Ortiz vs. Shamrock III Spike TV special. Davis, who most recently handed Shonie Carter a unanimous decision loss at UFC Fight Night 7, is a former pro boxer with a record of 22-1-2 with 17 knockouts. Heï¿&frac12;s added a decent ground game to round out his MMA skills.

Pete Spratt is a local, fighting out of Sherman Texas and living in San Antonio. He holds a 15-7 MMA record, 3-2 in the UFC with wins over Robbie Lawler and Jeremy Jackson and losses to Josh Koscheck and Carlos Newton. Pete Spratt was a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter 4 and was defeated in the first round of the tournament by Chris Lytle. Spratt is being coached by Team Punishment up at Big Bear for this fight and will have Team Punishment trainer Saul Soliz in his corner.

This isn’t too terribly interesting a matchup but does have an interesting backstory. Can training with Team Punishment give 36-year-old Spratt the edge he needs to notch another win? Neither fighter has looked tremendously impressive to date. The 33-year-old Davis took it to Shonie Carter at UFC Fight Night 7 but still couldn’t put him away. I’ll pick Spratt to pull out a decision. We’ll see if the hometown fans and Team Punishment training can give him the edge to pull out the long-shot upset. This is definitely not a strong bet, though.

Luke Cummo (-155) vs. Josh Haynes (+135)

This battle of .500-level former cast members of The Ultimate Fighter opens the night and hopefully isn’t a total snoozefest. Haynes is 0-2 in the UFC (7-7 MMA) after getting beaten by Micheal Bisping at The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale and four months later losing a unanimous decision to Rory Singer on the undercard of Shamrock vs. Ortiz III. Haynes trains with Team Quest and will have Nate Quarry in his corner.

I have no real significant thoughts on this fight. Cummo has lost three of his last four. Haynes has lost four of his last five. Cummo does have one win in the UFC, and that might give him the edge. Cummo by decision.

Recommended units for the card:

For the first time, I’m separating these into three categories. “Good Bets” are those that I think represent a decent edge. “OK Bets” are those that represent a slight edge — but not nearly as much as the first category. “Too Close Bets” are those that the line is set too well in my opinion. However, I’m picking a side in case people want to bet on those fights. I would recommend betting only the “Good Bets” unless you are a more advanced bettor and can make up your own mind on the rest.

Good Bets:

St. Pierre -950: 9.5 units to win 1 unit (or 4.75 units to win .5 if you don’t want to lay that much)

UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey is probably the greatest female fighter on the planet, which is a tremendous feat. So why are we seemingly so obsessed with arguing about whether she could beat up men?