It's Not How You Start...

Kate Fagan sort of provided some insight into the Speights and Turner situations. Basically, Speights sucks and Turner is getting punished for his play against Portland, her words, not mine. Speights is pretty much done as a rotational guy and won't sniff the floor in the playoffs. Turner will probably get back ahead of Nocioni before the playoffs start, but needs to show something when he gets minutes to get into Collins' playoff rotations.

Depending on the matchup, I think there's a very good chance we could see Collins rely almost exclusively on his 7-man rotation with the 8th and 9th guys seeing maybe 10-15 minutes combined per game. That's one advantage of the absurdly drawn-out playoff schedules.

according to win shares, PER, and most other metrics, the difference isn't all that far off.

We're beyond the developmental stage. At this stage of the game, he has to show something to stay on the floor. This is more an indictment of Turner's sporadic-at-best play than a bumping up of Nocioni's value, IMO.

IMO, from here on out, Turner's going to get a couple minute run in the first half. If he's producing, he might see time in the second. If he's not, I doubt we'll see him.

Yep. He's probably going to be a key as well, if he plays like a below-average center, they might have a shot. If he plays like Hawes, well, then they're going to have to play about 30 minutes with EB at the five, and that probably won't end well.

This all depends on matchups. If they get up to #5 and face Orlando, they'll probably go deeper because I expect Dwight to go to the line about 20 times/game.

Collins needs to play Iguodala less. Even if it costs them the game on Friday (which they are expected to lose anyway) Turner needs some floor time. Speights as well. Winning is important but you don't want to run Iguodala/Brand into the ground and have nothing left for the playoffs. Turner/Speights needs to win over Collins and play great when they do get in the game. Doug needs to expand his rotation especially in games they expect to lose just to get more experience. It's a tough situation though cause the more Brand/Iguodala play the more likely they are to win.

Lou's ability to get to the line and his usage rate have zero relevance to the question of why Collins put Lou in for Jrue with a 9-point lead and 2 minutes left on the clock. Generating offense isn't really a concern in that situation, getting stops is.

And if you want to do an "exhaustive stat breakdown" of Lou vs. Jrue, you should probably start by looking at team production with each guy on and off the floor.

least important position?
well technically the Sixers need and do have a point guard, his name is Andre Iguodala. And they also have an extremely capable back up/ secondary option; Jrue Holiday. The two are in top 40 assist for players in NBA. It's not a law to have one guy run the whole show, but saying you don't need a point, that's Eddie Joran talk.

I take it you are not enamored by Jrue. but Lou cannot play PG, I feel like that should be an established fact.

"Lou is a better FT shooter, which is kinda important in the last 2 minutes of a game. The defensive difference between Lou and Jrue is not signifigant enough to have a major impact on a game where the sixers are up by 9 with 2 minutes to go."

His defense really is better than Lou's too. It's a product of the system Collins utilizes (which puts more pressure on the point guards) and playing against starters. Against a team like Boston, while Jrue plays much of the game against Rondo, Lou gets to deal with Arroyo for most part. The thing about statistical analysis is that they need to be placed in a context.

As far as stats go, defensive win shares are pretty decisively in Jrue's favor. I'm not great with advanced stats, but that's a pretty important stat, no?

"Probably the most questionable thing Collins did all night was to substitute Lou in for Jrue with the Sixers up by 9 and 2:14 left in the game. I just don't get that move at all. Jrue only played 31 minutes tonight, and he wasn't in any kind of foul trouble."

What sucks is that you are a good writer who has a lot of knowledge and insight but your anti-lou bias detracts from your analysis.

How do you not mention Lou's contribution to this win in your analysis of this game? he dropped 17 points in 20 minutes and, along with Thad, keyed the decisive run that led to the win. But your only mention of lou in your post is how collin's took out jrue for lou with 2 minutes left.

I like Lou about as much as Brian does, but this sees like a fair post. While Thad was unquestionably the POG, Lou's contributions in the 3rd/4th quarter certainly deserve a mention in any encompassing overview of the comeback.

I think that Kate Fagan was being a bit simplistic in her assessment of Turner's game in Portland. I thought that he actually got off to a pretty good start...assertive with the ball and in the flow of things, but he got in early foul trouble and that was that. While I do believe that Turner has all of the skills to be a high-quality NBA player, the overall confidence level of his game waxes and wanes more that you would expect from a guy who was the consensus college Player of the Year (and a guy who was very comfortable being "the man").

Perhaps he's thinking too much. Perhaps he's deferring too much. Perhaps he doesn't get a call out on the floor (hello, rookie) and - rather than using that as fuel - he recoils. Whatever the case is, I am beginning to wonder if we will not see the next step in the maturation in his game until next season...and perhaps Collins knows that.

While I know that there have been concerns about Collins' view on playing the kids versus trying to win games, it is hard to argue right now that we should not be focusing on winning games (playing at a .620 pace since 3-13...9th best in the NBA). The hope is that - unlike Speights - Turner will use his time out of the rotation as fuel to get back into that rotation. I am sure that in these last 11 games he will get that chance...hopefully, he will take advantage of that chance, but I am increasingly preparing myself for the possibility that the next material step in his game won't happen until next season.

I said all along that Turner won't improve significantly during the course of the season. But he is going to improve greatly in the next few seasons. The only thing that needs to happen for Turner to succeed in the next year or two is being given a chance. Simply put he needs to be given wither Jrue's or Iguodala's role on offense. That doesn't mean that all 3 are impossible to play well together, but the only way i see that happen is if Turner and Iguodala swap their roles on offense. I do however believe that trading one of the three for a big man is the best way to go long term.

PG is actually the most important position in the modern NBA. Ever since the hand-checking rule was changed (was it 2006? or 2007?), PGs have become absolutely dominant. Saying that championship teams in the past haven't had that many great PGs has nothing to do with how important PGs are today. Why do you think smaller faster players are so dominant today (not just PGs). Rose will get an MVP award because of that rule. Without it he would've been just an average NBA player. For example one can only imagine how good Iverson would've been had that rule been applied when he was in his prime. Quite possibly worth multiple MVPs and a championship.

I would compare Rose winning the MVP this year to when Rollins won the NL MVP in 2007...I know that saber-heads argued (some pretty vociferously) that he did not deserve the award, but I think that it was a combination of a pretty fucking solid year with that team FINALLY getting over the hump (and Rollins having a monster September to help deliver the goods). For Rose, the Bulls have been transformed into a legit top-5 team, and while there are many reasons for that (including roster health and a new coach), Rose is the most visible manifestation of that growth, and on a regular basis...in high-profile games (like that comeback win on national TV against the Heat in Miami a couple of weeks ago), he played like an MVP.

As I mentioned in the pre-game thread, defense was going to be the key to any blowout win. In the first 2.5 quarters, the Sixers didn't play defense well (what I was afraid of), which is why the Hawks were ahead most of the game. The Sixers were fortunate that Lou and Thad were on their games and that, for some reason, they always seem to have no problems scoring on the Hawks, who are an average-to-good defensive team, at least on paper (funny, they have 4 starters with good defensive reputations, but they don't play like it). The Sixers are going to have to play much better defense if they are going to have success in the playoffs. The good news, I believe, is that they are capable of much better defense.

Regarding the substitution of Lou for Jrue late in the 4th, there were two plays that I think contributed to the decision. First, Jrue threw a careless pass that was deflected and almost stolen. Then, Jrue was caught in no man's land and left Hinrich wide open for a corner three (which he missed). So I believe Lou came in for fewer turnovers on offense and better defense.

I'm in the middle on the Jrue vs. Lou debate (which makes me more pro-Lou than most here). Jrue has better court vision and "sees" better passes, but Jrue also makes more careless passes. Both were in evidence last night. On defense, I don't agree that Jrue is a better defender than Lou. Jrue is capable of better defense, but that isn't the same thing as saying he actually is a better defender. The results say otherwise: every other game it seems (including last night), the opposing starting point guard is exploding on the Sixers (for Hinrich these days, 16 points and 4 threes constitutes an explosion). Part of it is poor showing on the P/R by the Sixer big men (maybe that is by design), but part is just Jrue's own attention-drifting. For example, there was a play last night where Hinrich just walked up to the three-point line at the top of the key and drained a 3-pointer, with Jrue 3 feet off.

Rich: regarding defensive win shares, the only individual stat that goes into it is defensive rating. But if we're going to discount Lou's above-average opponent-PER because he's playing against mostly backup point guards, I would also discount a direct comparison of defensive win shares because Lou plays often with poor defensive lineups and Jrue plays most often with good ones (the starters are above average and the starters with Thad for Hawes is insanely good). It's telling that the Lou-Turner-AI9-Thad-Brand lineup is also one of the Sixers' best defensive lineups. Lou tends to get beaten more on isolation penetrations (isolation defense is one of Jrue's strengths), but I would venture to say that, for whatever reason, Lou more consistently challenges opponents on jump shots.

Lou Williams is not a better basketball player than Jrue Holiday. He's a better SCORER than Jrue Holiday, but he's not a better basketball player. He's a lite Allen Iverson, he's a one dimensional bench guy.

Advanced stats tell a story, not the one you're trying to relate, so you don't use any of them in your comments except to provide a link to them without saying how they support your argument. It's one of the worst offenses of statistical abuse. You don't understand what you're looking at, you can't support your argument with the numbers strongly so you just say 'look at the numbers'.

You probably also skilfully ignore those games where Lou's shot is off, he keeps shooting (suffering no 'consequences' from a coach who loves to bench guys you hate like Jrue and Evan Turner), and missing, and playing no defense.

Lou gets to the foul line more (yes, no one is disputing that) and yet he's not shooting as well as Jrue when you take out the FT Shooting (see, that's what eFG% is used for)

Jrue rebounds better than Lou, on both ends of the floor, creates for his teammates better (I understand that point guard is unimportant, but a point guard is supposed to create for his team mates, Lou doesn't create for his teammates), he is better from the 3 than Lou, and gets more steals than Lou.

Certain TV announcers are obsessed with P+R+A as some sort of number - averaging out to per 36 minutes - guess who has a better number? I'll give you a hint. It's not Lou.

Lou Scores, that's all Lou does, saying Lou is 'better' than Jrue sounds a lot like the arguments that said Iguodala isn't very good (cause he doesn't score enough points)

I think Matt Harpring is a pretty good commentator for Utah. I doubt that he would ever leave Utah for Philly but he was lightyears better than Snow. Not like that is a big accomplishment. The worst comm duo I've heard this year was Toronto. I'm pretty sure I got an actual headache listening to them.

This is the first year that I bought the NBA package so I haven't heard the Boston announcers much. I think the boston accent is probably the worst thing I've ever heard so I'm not doubting that they are terrible. I went up to cape cod for a weekend last summer and said to myself "Man, this would be a really great place if only they got rid of those annoying boston fans".