Since 1950 the S&P 500 has returned 1.3% during May through October versus 7.1% November through April.

By Liz Ann Sonders

As April comes to a close, investors are again wondering whether to “sell in May and go away.”

Investors will also be hearing a lot about the Dow’s new “Golden Cross,” which is generally a bullish sign for stocks.

Our conclusion is that signals are mixed and now is not the time to take on undue risk.

We are in that “season” when you will hear a lot about whether it’s appropriate this year to “sell in May and go away,” which is one of the most time-honored market adages, and for good reason. Since 1950, nearly all of the Standard & Poor’s 500’s gains have occurred between October and April.

The mean return since 1950 for the S&P 500 during May through October was 1.3%; while for November through April it was 7.1%. [Editor’s note: Investors can get exposure to the S&P 500 via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF or the Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund.

The “strategy” did not work for the three years from 2012-2014, or for the five years from 2003-2007, when there were gains between May and October in each year. In addition, as you can see in the table below, there is a meaningful difference between how the market performs from a seasonal perspective in secular bull or secular bear markets.

Average gains and the percent of positive cases have been higher in secular bulls than in secular bears (even if they are still lower than in the November through April period).

Ostensibly supporting the bull case as we head toward May, is another market metric which will undoubtedly get some attention this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just experienced a so-called “Golden Cross.” This is a technical term used to describe the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average as both moving averages are rising. This just occurred again and it’s the first Golden Cross for the Dow since Jan. 2, 2012. It’s generally seen as a very bullish indicator for stocks…but is it?

Bespoke Investment Group (BIG) took a look at the past 50 years to see how the market fared in the aftermath of Golden Crosses. The data show that performance following Golden Crosses was no better than the performance over any random time period. It was up exactly half the time over the next month and three months; while returns and probabilities did increase for the six-month period.

If you are looking for the glass-half-full perspective, do note that the Dow performed very well following the last two Golden Crosses in October 2010 and January 2012; while the Dow was positive in the six months after the last seven Golden Crosses as well.

Another feat by the market last week was the continued improvement in market breadth (which has been much healthier than other rallies over the past year). Last week, the Financial sector finally regained its 200-day moving average, which now puts all 10 S&P 500 sectors above their 200-day moving averages.

The recent streak of over a year without all 10 sectors above their 200-day moving averages simultaneously is rare. According to Bespoke Investment Group, there have only been four previous streaks of a year or more since 1990; and two of those were coming out of major bear markets. This sign of improving breadth was an extremely bullish signal in three of the past four instances (1993 had mixed results).

The net is that there are competing forces at work for the market at present. From the February low, the market has rallied sharply, which has triggered indicators like the Golden Cross. Bespoke looked back over the Dow’s entire history to find times when the Dow closed at a 52-week low at some point in the prior three months, then rallied at least 13% over a 50-day period. The last two times this occurred were in October 2011 and November 2015—both marked short-term highs in stocks.

However, the current experience is unusual because it’s the second occurrence within a year. The other times that happened (November 1900, October 1921, July 1932 and November 2001), stocks did markedly better.

To me, these conflicting forces suggest maintaining our “neutral” rating on U.S. stocks. That means investors should remain at their strategic equity allocation, but be extra mindful of adopting rebalancing strategies in the interest of risk control.

We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of infinity. Life is eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share.This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in eternity.