UFC on Fuel: Struve vs. Miocic Preview & Predictions

Prior to last week’s UFC 152 event, we’d gone quite some time without any UFC offerings. That’s all changed now, though, as the promotion is bringing us a seemingly endless stream of pay per view and free fight cards.

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Fuel TV, and they also return to England. More specifically, they’ll be hitting up Nottingham, the home of exciting welterweight bruiser Dan Hardy. If you’re sleeping on this card just because it’s a Fuel event, well, you shouldn’t be. From top to bottom, this free TV event offers plenty of exciting pairings, and a few notable names — to hardcore MMA fans, anyway — are making their debuts on the preliminary card.

First, we’ll take a look at my predictions for the main card, and then I’ll point out a few things you should pay attention to on the prelims.

STEFAN STRUVE VS. STIPE MIOCIC: The main thing to keep in mind about undefeated heavyweight prospect Stipe Miocic is that he’s one hell of an athlete. He was a nationally-ranked collegiate wrestler who also received plenty of interest from Major League Baseball teams. He’s fast, strong and has plenty of talent. Put simply, he’s one of those guys you really want to keep an eye on in the heavyweight division, because he might be a player for years to come.

And speaking of years: did you know that Stefan Struve is just 24 years old? That seems impossible, and yet it’s true. Struve has 11 fights in the UFC’s heavyweight division, which makes him one of the longest-tenured big men in the promotion. He’s had his share of ups and downs over the years, but he’s currently riding a three-fight winning streak and is seemingly starting to live up the potential people saw in him back when he made his debut.

I’ve always said that Struve would be tough to beat if he used his monstrous reach advantage more, and that’s still the case. But I also believe he has an advantage on the ground on this fight. Miocic is a fine wrestler, but Struve’s long limbs enable him to secure triangle chokes that few others could.

Ultimately, I believe that’s how the fight plays out. Miocic will take it to the ground at some point, and from there, he’ll get caught in a triangle and either tap or go to sleep.

Stefan Struve by submission, round 2

DAN HARDY VS. AMIR SADOLLAH: Dan Hardy has a new lease on his UFC life after winning his last bout following a tough 0-4 run. He’s also fighting in Nottingham, on a big stage, for the first time. I know Hardy trained as hard as he ever has for this fight, and I think he’ll be up for it.

And fortunately for Hardy, he’s facing a guy who seems more than willing to stand and trade punches with him. Sadollah is a fine striker, but he’s got nowhere near the power of Hardy, and that’s going to spell trouble for him.

Dan Hardy by KO, round 1

BRAD PICKETT VS. YVES JABOUIN: This one is my early pick for Fight of the Night honors, and I expect it to deliver in spades. Pickett has won 11 of his last 13 fights, with the only losses coming to interim champion Renan Barao and Scott Jorgensen. He’s perfectly willing to take a few punches to the face as long as it means he can deliver a few of his own, and his technical boxing is very good.

Jabouin, meanwhile, uses a much more strategic approach to striking, and it’s allowed him to rack up a 3-fight winning streak. He hasn’t been all that dominant, however, with two of the victories coming by split decision.

I like that both guys here are tough, but I think Pickett’s just a little bit tougher and hits a whole lot harder.

Brad Pickett by decision

PAUL SASS VS. MATT WIMAN: Matt Wiman extended his stay in the UFC with a win over Mac Danzig last October. He was supposed to return at UFC 145, but a knee injury forced him to hit the shelf.

Paul Sass is interesting mostly because, much like Ronda Rousey, he has what might be deemed a pro-wrestling style finishing move: the triangle choke. 9 of his 13 wins have come by triangle, so you could say he’s pretty good at it.

Wiman’s an aggressive fighter, a trait that has cost him at times during his career. I expect that to be the case here as well.

Paul Sass by submission, round 1

JOHN HATHAWAY VS. JOHN MAGUIRE: Hathaway used to be a can’t-miss prospect in the welterweight division, but his freight train was derailed by Mike Pyle at UFC 120. He’s racked up consecutive wins over Kris McCray and Pascall Kraus since the loss, however, and will be looking to extend that number to three.

Maguire is an excellent grappler who has scored submission wins over Justin Edwards and DaMarques Johnson in his two UFC appearances.

Hathaway is a much better striker than Maguire, and you can expect the latter to try and get this fight to the ground as soon as humanly possible. I think he’ll eventually be successful, and from there he’ll score what might be considered an upset submission win to continue his road up the UFC welterweight ranks.

John Maguire by decision

CHE MILLS VS. DUANE LUDWIG: Mills made an impact in his UFC debut when he knocked out Chris Cope at UFC 138, but lost in his next outing to Rory MacDonald. But there’s nothing wrong with losing to one of the best in the division, and Mills finds himself in a much more manageable situation against Ludwig, a fighter who enjoys a good firefight as much as the next guy.

But it’s Ludwig’s proclivity for being involved in stand-up wars that will do him in here. He’s a very good striker, but there is plenty of wear and tear on those tires and I’m not sure his chin is up to the task of withstanding Mills and his pinpoint striking.

Che Mills by TKO, round 2

THINGS TO WATCH ON THE PRELIMS

Several highly-regarded talents are making their UFC debuts on the preliminary card.

First up is Gunnar Nelson, a perennial member of most top prospect lists, in a bout against DaMarques Johnson. Nelson is an immensely accomplished grappler and a Renzo Gracie black belt. He’s also undefeated in MMA competition.

Next, we have Tom “Kong” Watson, a former BAMMA middleweight champion and an English fight fan favorite. He faces Brad Tavares.

And finally, there’s Jimi Manuwa, an undefeated light heavyweight who was also a BAMMA champion. He turned down an approach from the UFC a few years back, but felt he was finally ready to make the jump. He faces Kyle Kingsbury in what should be a violent fight that ends in some kind of knockout.

3 Responses

Struve is an awesome fighter, because he is just too big. I think he will clean Miocic’s clock, because of his reach advantage.
It is going to be a good fight card, but I wonder why the UFC never comes here to Tampa.