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December 4, 2007

Tuesday with Johan Santana

Hank on including Hughes and Kennedy: "That's not going to happen. To give up two of the three, there's no chance, not for anybody." (P.S. If A-Rod opts out, that's it. He's gone. I mean it.)

Heyman: "The Twins told the Yankees they would accept a deal without pitching prospect Ian Kennedy but want both pitching prospect Alan Horne and outfield prospect Austin Jackson in addition to top young pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera."

Rotoworld: "The Twins have reportedly asked for Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie from the Red Sox for Johan Santana."

Globe: "The Red Sox have traded medical information with the Minnesota Twins on Jon Lester, which means that talks between the two teams have progressed." (Other reports have the Twins asking for the info and the Sox providing it.)

Fox: "The Twins adjourned their discussions with both clubs at approximately 1:30 a.m. CT."

ESPN: "Buster Olney reported early Tuesday that ... If the Twins were satisfied with Lester's medicals, it's believed they would accept a swap of him, Coco Crisp, shortstop prospect Jed Lowrie and either highly regarded pitching prospect Justin Masterson or another player. Or if the Twins reversed field and decided they wanted center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury instead, it's believed that would be a 3-for-1 trade -- with only Ellsbury, Masterson and Lowrie going to Minnesota.

New Jersey Star-Ledger: "According to an official of an American League team, the Boston Red Sox have made a significant increase in their proposal for Johan Santana, offering the Minnesota Twins pitcher Jon Lester, outfielders Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury and minor-league infielder Jed Lowrie. The official, who asked not to be named because he is not directly involved, said the Twins were going to sleep on it."

ESPN: "'If the Red Sox get Santana,' said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, 'they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe.'"

Times: "The Yankees’ pursuit of Johan Santana showed a flicker of life early Tuesday morning when the Minnesota Twins backed off their demand that the right-hander Ian Kennedy be added to the Yankees’ trade offer."

Star Tribune: The exchange of medical info "could mean that the Red Sox and Twins have reached agreement on a deal involving Johan Santana. ... Around 2 a.m. I contacted someone with knowledge of the negotiations. That person had heard that the deal was for four players: Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. Notice that Jacoby Ellsbury is not part of the deal. I didn’t run with it then because I really wanted to be sure. But I want to let you know this morning that’s what I’m hearing.

SoSHer 86spike: "I perceive the fatal flaw of the Yankees offer is the fact that Melky cannot be an effective CFer if slotted between Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. That would be a terrible outfield defnesively. So they would have had to slide Cuddyer to 3B and move Melky to RF ... Once the Twins acquired Delmon ... Melky's value to them sunk like a rock. So they need, absolutely need, NY to offer Kennedy since Melky is now the 3rd best piece of the package by far."

TSN: "That means the Red Sox, at this moment, stand alone in the Santana negotiations, and could pretty much force a package of pitcher Jon Lester, centerfielder Coco Crisp, infielder Jed Lowrie and a second pitching prospect for Santana."

About being the best team in the universe -- something interesting was said over at RL. They said the Twins might rather the Sox have Santana so that we would be a clear favorite to win the division, lessening the competition for the Wild Card spot from the Twins' perspective.

Nice as that was to hear from a Yankee fan, best team in the universe is overblown. The Yankees would still compete with us pretty solidly. And we would be giving up a fair chunk of the future.

If the Yankees get one ace (Haren, etc.), then I think they have a shot at the division, but better start thinking a bit more about the wild card. So far, it just looks to me like they got older and more expensive.

Five years down the line, anything is possible, of course. But so much can happen (or not happen) in that time period to any player...

I would be stoked if the deal got done on the terms they're talking. Totally stoked. But I'm kinda expecting the Yankees to cave.

They will probably add a pitcher, maybe Haren. And imagine 2007 if they hadn't had the storm of injury madness. You can't bank on that sort of thing.

I'm not saying I want to be them. I'm just saying I never feel like we're an easy favorite in this division.

And we ain't got Santana yet. Although in the Santana thread at SoSH, it was mentioned that the lack of leaks since last night might indicate that talks are serious -- i.e., locked down as Theo's known to do (along with most GMs).

Herald: "Late Monday night, the Red Sox received a call from the Twins requesting the medical records of Lester. After reviewing the information, the Twins were satisfied that there were no red flags there that would block a deal, said the source. "The Red Sox are legitimate, real players in this now," said the source. "The Twins like their players.""

There's a blog being updated at ESPN. Gammons says as of 12:50 EST that they're going to get back together, with the Twins still trying to decide on the 4-player Lester package or the 3-player Ellsbury one.

Go D-Backs! Get Haren. That'd be very good. But do it after the Santana deal is done with the Red Sox, because if Haren is snatched up, the Twins might decide to up the price a wee bit. Just take any additional drama out of it and get it done.

SoSHer SoxFanSince57: "The MFY could certainly swoop in and offer the best package, but right now for my money the Sox are totally "schooling" the MFY on negotiating strategy. The Sox have remained flexible and responsive to the needs of their trading partners while the MFY have set an internal value for a set of prospects and simply pushed them. I am pretty sure that SoSH members like me who have negotiated hundered of deals appreciate the art and science of Theo's approach. From a negotiating process stand-point Theo is killing the MFY. The Sox are listening to the Twins needs and doing their best to craft alternatives for them to consider. Nicely done. Even when the Twins re-open discussions with the MFY and ask them for a similar set of alternatives to consider, the MFY, by reports, just say no."

- says Twins and RS are meeting as we speak, expected to pick Lester- or Ellsbury-centered package- Twins "like Ellsbury a lot" - but some people in the organization want to get an ML-ready pitcher back in the deal- RS "very confident" they will be able to work out long-term deal with Santana

Sean McAdam: This afternoon the Twins were meeting with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who have jumped into the Santana negotiations at the eleventh hour. Previously, the Angels had been focusing on Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera, but have been stuck trying to complete a deal.

There is said to be a division among Angels executives over which player to pursue -- Cabrera or Santana.

The Twins have told the Angels that Jared Weaver would have to be part of a deal for Santana to give Minnesota another young starter as part of the mix. Other names expected to be talked about include shortstop prospect Brandon Wood.

With Santana-Beckett-Dice and Buchholz coming on, the Yankees would be looking at wild card or bust for several years.

That would be such an awesome prospect to think about.

Still conflicted over Ellsbury though, but at least he has a WS ring if he does indeed go so there's no regrets whatsoever. And besides, it may suck but we can't keep all the fan favorites, except Doc who won everyone's heart again with the re-sign.

Star Tribune: "I spoke to a National League scout who watched Jed Lowrie in the Arizona Fall League, and he was very negative about Lowrie's defense, using the words "hard hands". The scout said there's "not a snowball's chance" Lowrie plays shortstop in the big leagues. ... After hearing all that, it's no wonder there is now a buzz from Nashville that the Twins could be looking for a 5-for-1 offer from the Red Sox."

i think the twins need a proven or at least semi-proven pitcher like lester. He's never lost right? Plus with the East seemingly tied up right now for 08 if this momentum keeps going and we stay healthy, how could the twins send 20 wins to the yankees and thereby eliminate their chances at at least a wild card spot.

3:28 p.m., from Peter Gammons• The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. Boston has sweetened its offer by adding a fifth player to the the offer -- outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, a ninth-round pick in the 2006 draft out of Red Bank Catholic High School (Shrewsbury, N.J.).

3:44 p.m., from Enrique Rojas• The Royals have expressed some interest in Sammy Sosa, according to a source. Sosa has the same agent as Jose Guillen, Adam Katz, and the two sides are trying to determine dollar figures that make sense.

Olney, 3:25 PM: "The Yankees and Twins haven't talked at all so far Tuesday about Johan Santana, amid increasing indications Santana is going to be dealt to Boston. The Twins are also talking to the Angels, however."

Star-Ledger: "An official from one of the two teams said the Twins have still not responded to Boston's proposals for Johan Santaga. It's assumed the Red Sox have two offers out: Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson for Santana and one that replaces Lester and Crisp with Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox were expecting to hear back from the Twins by this morning or afternoon ..."

Pioneer Press: "According to Peter Gammons, who is well connected in Boston’s front office, the Red Sox and Twins plan an afternoon meeting to continue their discussions. So there could be some news later today. If Boston remains adamant about not including both Lester and Ellsbury in the same deal, I just heard speculation that Bill Smith might try adding a prospect of his own to the deal, in hopes of making the trade more palatable. If that’s the case, this could be another all-nighter."

Herald: "According to a source familiar with the negotiations the Twins have told they want to complete the Johan Santana deal by the end of today."

WTF? "The Red Sox are said to have two offers on the table, one involving center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, and the other involving pitcher Clay Buchholz."

Bradford was just on WEEI - The fifth player is a very high prospect, the whispering is that the Yankees will make a push to up the ante, because they need Santana more than the Sox do, but look for the deal to be completed tonight and his feeling is that the Twins will take the Lester, Coco, Lowrie, Masterson plus the high schooler. Or at least that is the way I understood it.

4:49 p.m., from Jayson Stark• The Twins and Angels continue to talk about a Johan Santana trade. Many of the same players mentioned in the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes -- Howie Kendrick, Brandan Wood, Nick Adenhart, and possibly Jeff Mathis or Reggie Willits -- would be included in a package for Santana.

• It is believed that the Angels haven't talked with the Marlins since last night, and Miguel Cabrera is off their radar screen -- at least for now.

NJ Star-Ledger: "The Yankees have pulled out of trade talks for Minnesota Twins ace Johan Santana. '(Hank Steinbrenner) closed the door on the Santana thing,' a high-ranking Yankees official said today. 'The Santana thing's over.'"

Star Tribune: "The Red Sox and Twins are expected to meet soon. A source close to the negotiations told me that two deals - one led by Jacoby Ellsbury and one led by Jon Lester - are in play. ... The source said a Red Sox official was told by a Twins official this morning that the Twins wanted this thing wrapped up today. ... The Twins, meanwhile, have cleared another spot off their 40-man roster by outrighting infielder Chris Basak to Class AAA Rochester. They now have 38 spots on their roster. Hmm."

Globe: "The Newark Star Ledger just reported that the Yankees are out of the running for Johan Santana. One Sox source said he was skeptical that is the case. The Twins meanwhile have outrighted a player off their 40-man roster, the kind of move that often takes place before a trade, as they try to create roster space. The Commissioner, Peter Gammons, say a fifth player may be in the package that the Sox would give the Twins for Santana, minor league outfielder Ryan Kalish, but my Sox sources could not confirm that. The Sox people I'm talking to say they're still waiting."

Herald: "The Red Sox and the Twins are still trying to settle on the final package of prospects the Red Sox would give up in return for ace Johan Santana. Those talks are believed to be ongoing as the dinner hour approaches on the East Coast. ... The Twins have told the Red Sox that they would like to get the deal done sometime today. One Red Sox source rolled his eyes this afternoon when he heard that Yankees’ New Boss Hank Steinbrenner had just declared the Yankees’ involvement with Santana to be over."

I confess to knowing nothing about Kalish and little more than that about Masterson, but if it's Coco (and say what you may, but I do like him) not LBJ, excellent. But... Santana and Coco or LBJ and Lester.

SoSher ragnarok725: "Ellsbury in the deal would seem to make Kalish redundant. Six years of Ellsbury and Kalish would be blocked for probably about 3 of them. Kalish as a potential future replacement for 3 years of Coco makes sense. Maybe it comes down to Ellsbury vs. Lowrie + Coco. That's probably a hard one for the Twins."

- Buchholz has been untouchable all the way through. If they included him, it would have been a done deal.

- 4-6 teams interested in Crisp if he doesn't go in a Santana deal.

- Now told the 5-1 with Kalish wasn't true. It's a 3-1 or a 4-1 and Kalish might be a part of one of those.

- Buchholz will be in the Sox rotation at some point during the year.

- We learned a lot from resting pitchers during the ALCS. Sox are great at keeping their pitchers strong.

*****

SoSHer Grubbery: "From a press-watching perspective, I love this portion of the program. You've got dozens and dozens of reporters all trying to get the scoop, and talk radio and blogs completely fueling an overheating engine. Reporters are being used by teams to change the dynamics of various negotiations and folks like us are reading and debating every word they leak. From a pure media perspective, it's absolutely fascinating."

Reporters are being used by teams to change the dynamics of various negotiations and folks like us are reading and debating every word they leak. From a pure media perspective, it's absolutely fascinating.

That's the reason we're all following this so closely and not just saying hey, see you next March. It's all very interesting, seeing the way these things work and the different developments, etc. It's interesting.

Looking around here in southern Maine/southern NH, it's hard to believe there's about six inches of fresh snow on the ground and there are christmas lights all over the place, because it feels like we're in the thick of it, just, without the games.

Sean McAdam is reporting on SportsNight on Comcast SportsNet that there are reports that there isn't even a CF in the deal on the table for Santana. It's very confusing. McAdam says it'd be Lester, Masterson, and Ryan Kalish.

I've been enjoying watching the Celtics and Bruins and Patriots. They're all playing well and the games are exciting and, most importantly, interesting. But no amount of football, hockey, and basketball can fill the void that a lack of baseball creates.

I've not seen any discussion of the unintended consequence of a Santana deal. Our new ace is a guy signed for $10M or $11M /yr. He was Dominant for pretty much the entire year and definitely in the postseason. Guy's got a big ego. I'm curious to see what impact it'll have on him if we bring in Santana.

I find football interesting when the games are relatively close, like this week's Patriots/Ravens game. I find basketball incredibly boring; two hours of running back and forth throwing balls into a hoop, and then a few minutes of excitement in the last few minutes to see who gets the last basket---or alternatively, a blowout that is boring the entire time. I can't even imagine watching hockey. All that skating around for two hours with almost no scoring?

Now, give me baseball---always the drama of a pitcher against a batter, always unpredictable, not confined by time, and slow enough that I can see every play if I want to. Gotta love it! I just don't get people who say baseball is boring. But then they same about me and my feelings about the other sports.

Assuming the Sox and Twins reached a deal last night, there'd still be a 24-hour window to negotiate an extension with Santana himself. So we probably wouldn't hear anything until tomorrow in any event.