RS

MEMBER DIARY

Quotable: The One’s Dead Cat Bounce

“The public is divided on the overall job he is doing now: 44 percent say they approve, while 45 percent disapprove in a new CBS News poll – virtually unchanged from last month.

“The president’s rating on the economy, however, has taken a further plunge in the poll. Now, only 38 percent say they approve of the job he is doing handling the issue – which has been the problem weighing most heavily on the nation’s collective mind for months. Half of those questioned (50 percent) say they disapprove of his work on the economy.”

And from the same CBS poll, twice as many voters say an Obama endorsement will make them more likely to vote against that candidate:

“While most voters say the President’s support for a candidate would not affect their vote, among those to whom it would make a difference his involvement would be more negative than positive. If President Obama supported a candidate in their area, just 15 percent of likely voters say that would make them more likely to vote for the candidate, and twice as many (31 percent) say it would make them more likely to vote against that candidate.”

“Republicans now hold an eight point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot, with 45 percent of likely voters saying they would support the Republican candidate for the House, and 37 percent saying they would support the Democrat. Last month Republicans led Democrats by a margin of only 2 points, with 40 percent saying they would vote for a Republican and 38 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat.

“….But while Democrats have lately been making widespread efforts to diminish the so-called ‘enthusiasm gap’ between Republican and Democratic voters, the poll, which was conducted from October 1 – 5, indicates that the gap has in fact expanded. Sixty percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, while only 40 percent of Democrats said the same. Last month, 47 Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans said they were more excited than usual to vote.

“At forty-nine percent, Independents are now more enthusiastic than Democrats, the poll indicates.”

“There’s an old Wall Street saying that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height,” which brokers use to urge caution before investing in a company that seems to be on the rebound from a catastrophic fall.

“In hindsight, the polling bounce we’ve seen for the Democrats in recent weeks will be viewed in that vein.”

In the House, the situation is so dire, that the Dems are spending money on seats not-yet toss-ups so that they won’t become toss-ups. Just to be clear, the Dems are running so scared that they are spending on seats they think are safe, so they don’t become unsafe.

This is the Dem death-panel routine where they were going to save up to two dozen seats. Turns out they are saving the healthy ones — before they get sick — classic Dem health care policy. It is the really sick that get rationed and are without access to resources:

“Democrats are endeavoring, in essence, to find the edge of the Republican wave and begin fighting back. By defending members who are least at risk, the theory goes, they can put those races away early, leaving them free to concentrate their fire on Republican candidates more likely to win Democratic seats.

“A senior Democratic official familiar with the party’s spending habits described the playing field as akin to a bull’s-eye: Democrats work at the margins to shrink the bull’s-eye, defending candidates who are easily saved before moving on to more vulnerable members, erecting a firewall against the advancing Republican storm.

“Our strategy is to win, and that’s what we’re doing. Reading anything else into it is not accurate. We’re confident Democrats will hold the majority,” said Jennifer Crider, the DCCC’s communications director.

“But what’s telling is how far out on the margins Democrats feel compelled to begin. Republicans need to net 39 seats to win back a House majority. On both Democratic and Republican target lists, members like Hare, Bishop, Foster, and Salazar fall well below the 39th most competitive seat.”

“Either the NRCC or DCCC is spending money in 61 different districts, and 10 of the most vulnerable districts have yet to see a dime from the committees — mostly because they are being written off as certain party switches.

“That means roughly 71 seats are in play. Of those 71 seats, just five are held by Republicans, and 66 are potential GOP pickups. Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to retake the majority.”

“Traditionally, most of the undecided vote breaks toward the challenger — especially in a wave election. It’s not uncommon for a congressman to be up “double digits” but still be in serious trouble, given the anonymity of the opponent.

“And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.

“That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost — a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn’t yet been released, it’s very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.

“The playing field is so large this year that it’s misleading to look at any one race to draw firm conclusions about the state of play across the country. Democrats are playing a high-stakes game of “Whack-A-Mole” — even when they successfully disqualify weak GOP challengers, another half-dozen races pop up on their radar screen.”

“Our House Race Rankings now list 79 races as squarely in play, 72 of them held by Democrats, and other competitive races just missing the cutoff mark. It’s hard for either party to keep track of all these late-emerging races, much less build up an opposition dossier in time to run ads against challengers.”

In other words, things are so bad for the Dems that even those who do this full time, are have trouble keeping track of how bad things really are for the Dems.