Oscar nominations 2014: Laying odds on the six major races

Caption2014 Oscars | Show highlights

Kevin Winter / Getty Images / John Shearer/Invision/AP

Cate Blachett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong'o and more took home Oscar statuettes at the 86th Academy Awards held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The glitzy event, hosted by talk show host Ellen DeGeneres, included musical performances and a big win for "12 Years a Slave," which took...

Cate Blachett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong'o and more took home Oscar statuettes at the 86th Academy Awards held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The glitzy event, hosted by talk show host Ellen DeGeneres, included musical performances and a big win for "12 Years a Slave," which took... (Kevin Winter / Getty Images / John Shearer/Invision/AP)

We won't have to wait long to see what kind of final decisions Oscar voters will be making out of Thursday's Oscar nominations. This weekend brings the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild awards, with the Directors Guild following on Jan. 25. Those awards will give us plenty of concrete clues about where the most contentious contests -- picture, actor, supporting actress, director -- might be headed.

Analysis: This race might be over and done when the Producers Guild hands out its trophies Sunday. The PGA winner has matched the academy's pick six years running, largely because the guild uses the same preferential ballot (with voters ranking their choices) that the academy employs. If "American Hustle" wins the PGA, it will confirm what many have suspected for the last several weeks: A fizzy throwback trumps a harrowing history lesson, simply because it has a broader appeal. More voters are likely to place "Hustle" higher on their ballots than "12 Years a Slave." Entertainment over art.

Fox Searchlight can certainly counter this by appealing to voters' consciences, highlighting the way that "12 Years" tackled an important subject in an uncompromising fashion. The film's three acting nominations indicate support among the academy's biggest branch; a SAG ensemble win Saturday would help hammer that point home.

"Gravity," with 10 nominations, remains a viable alternative, though one suspects the film will be rewarded much in the same way "Life of Pi" was last year. "Gravity" will likely win the two sound categories, visual effects, original score and cinematography. And director Alfonso Cuaron stands as the front-runner for director. Five Oscars would be a satisfying haul.

Analysis: The year's most competitive category has started to tilt toward McConaughey, particularly as it has become increasingly apparent that "Dallas Buyers Club" has strong support throughout the academy, not just the actors branch. McConaughey's profile has also been helped by his fantastic, five-minute supporting turn as DiCaprio's mentor in "The Wolf of Wall Street," a performance that really sets the tone for the three hours to follow. (Money chant!) Add to that "True Detective," the smart, subtle HBO mystery miniseries that pairs McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, and the McConaissance is complete and unassailable. It feels like his moment and then some.

Analysis: Did Meryl Streep pull a Tonya Harding on Emma Thompson when she slammed Walt Disney while paying "tribute" to Thompson at the National Board of Review gala? It sure feels like it in hindsight, as Streep delivered the last -- and most pointed -- blow to Uncle Walt and, by extension, "Saving Mr. Banks," the movie that exalted him.

Thompson's surprising snub doesn't change the category's dynamic much. Has an actress other than Blanchett won anything this year?

Analysis: There were several actors with meaty, substantial roles -- Hill, "Rush's" Daniel Bruhl, James Gandolfini in "Enough Said," among them -- competing for this category's final slot. Hill prevailed, with voters perhaps rewarding the way "Wolf" director Martin Scorsese let him run free with his improvisational skills.

Leto, like Blanchett in lead actress, has been a rock-solid bet to win for quite some time. He and McConaughey can compare notes on expanding their mantles.

Analysis: Can anyone resist Lawrence these days? Critics' groups have rewarded the 23-year-old actress for her madcap Joisey girl in "Hustle," and she won the Golden Globe for the turn too. The case for newcomer Nyong'o, besides the obvious merit of her heart-rending turn in "12 Years," is that Lawrence just won an Oscar last year. And, for whatever reason, academy voters have a long history of looking to reward rookies in this category.

Then again, with nominations in all four categories, you have to figure that someone from "Hustle" will win. That was the case last year with "Silver Linings Playbook," which saw Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver and Lawrence earning nods, with Lawrence getting the victory.

Analysis: Scorsese and Russell have legitimate shots here, but the race probably will come down to a choice between Cuaron and McQueen, who, with a win, would become the first black director to win this Oscar. Many voters will be inclined to make history, but Cuaron is more of an industry favorite. Directing a huge commercial hit that also advanced the medium, Cuaron has the edge.

Best and worst dressed | Show highlights | Best & worst | Winners' room | Behind the scenes | Quotes from the stars | Complete list of winners and nominees | Envelope Screening Series | 10 years behind the scenes at the Oscars | Awkward moments | Actors who've never won an Oscar