I legitimately voted for JDF this time. He has had an elite K/9 in AAA and a good BB/9 in AAA without allowing many HRs. He throws 93 with a good slider. He will help this year so he has proximity on his side. He has the potential to throw high leverage innings.

I prefer him to all the high-end talent in the system down in single A because he is much more of a sure thing to return value at the MLB level this year and in the future. On the other hand, I recognize that he probably fails the “who returns more in a trade” test with the likes of LGJ, Valle, and perhaps some others.

One point regarding the voting patterns – we are all perhaps jumping too quickly to conclusions about what is happening. Yesterday JDF garnered lots of votes after 5pm. It is at least possible that people got off work and then came on here and voted at that time. It is less plausible that *all* those folks voted for JDF, but we should at least consider the possibility that it is not the work of one nefarious person.

Agree on JDef today – his positives are as you stated them – even if voting for him is a little contrary to my normal logic. His injury history, (just last year is the concern), should be a bigger flag for me, but it’s not, because we saw him come back and pitch without issue after the injury. This is pretty weak logic and I don’t blame anyone for not agreeing with me.

On voting patterns, I suggest we assume that patterns throughout the day are very similar. You’re not going to see a bounce like these guys are getting – spikes of votes as Matt has reported, without someone taking the time to sit down and force their way in multiple times with multiple IP addresses. If it had been closer most of the day and JDeF had edged ahead, fine. But he went from third place mid-day to up by 40 votes at the end of the night. Same pattern as Wright before him.

Two days ago Wright jumped near the end of the day and ended with the highest vote total. Logically if he legitimately had that kind that of support, Wright should have been the leading vote getter yesterday. As it happened he didn’t, showing that someone is padding the ballots.

I don’t have De Fratus on my list for awhile. I just don’t see him with elite reliever (closer) upside. 93 with a good slider sounds like Mike Stutes, although JdF has better control. I think he still tops out as an 8th inning guy, and therefore isn’t worth ranking ahead of guys with a very high ceiling in A-ball or guys with a solid ceiling (like a #3 starter) who are a little bit advanced in the system.

+1 … his short season results were highly encouraging, particularly since he was expected to be more of a project coming out of high school. The high walk rate was a pleasant surprise, and even though the HR numbers weren’t huge, I think he was at or near the league lead in doubles. Definitely could make a huge surge forward this season.

The K% is a concern, but it isn’t enough to knock him down, considering the BB%. The BB% is more important in my eyes.
I really paid close attention to the game scores of Williamsport this year, especially (Quinn, LGj and Walding). LGJ, had so many opposite field hits (and outs) that it seemed like he was working on hitting the ball the other way all season. That was in contrast to his pre-draft, which said he was ‘pull happy’. The fact that he could work on that part of his game while maintaining a decent BA, and a great BB% makes me believe he has more than in him.

Agreed. The plan for Greene may be to focus on his weaknesses. From pre draft reports, he already has premium power(although he didn’t show much in 2012). If he reduces his K rate, and maintains his BA and BB rate, he will vault into the top 5.

Dear Public, please realize that the more you keep mentioning the one person …the more the one person will keep doing it. I realize I did it but I am trying to make a point. The reason he is messing with the poll is because so many of you whet on long drawn out tirades about him in posts prior to voting. Everyone trying to show how much smarter they were actually fell into his trap and fueled him. If everyone would’ve just ignored him, he would’ve got bored and went away and I wouldn’t have had to typed this long drawn out tirade. Thank You!

Voted Larry Greene again for all the same reasons I wrote before. Given the prior votes I’d really expect him to win as many folks in prior comments mentioned Watson or Greene.

However, I do have Valle, DeFratus, Wright, Hernandez, Cozens in the next grouping. Gueller should probably be in there as well. I also had May and Bonilla (who I think should be a starter) in this 10-20 range before their trades.

Not to derail the comments, but curious where others had May and Bonilla (if they ranked before the trades).

I went with Greene. But I am curious: what is the value of a decent back-up catcher? That seems to be Valle’s likely outcome at this point (or, at least, a reasonable estimation of his outcome). So, is that worth the #14 spot? Or do people voting for Valle think he can be more than that? Again, I’m just curious to hear what people think.

i think a backup catcher plays so much more than any other backup position player that there is definitely value there. I guess to give it a rough estimate the value should approximately be that of a good 8th inning reliever. so i have valle and defratus very close in value.

The very best backup catcher in Baseball is David Ross. He is a 1.5 WAR player. Most of the other very good backup catchers are no more than 1 WAR players. A good 8th inning reliever is worth no more than 1.5 WAR (R Madson). I’m not sure how highly I value a minor leaguer, whose “upside” is back-up catcher or 8th inning reliever. Only the very good ones are worth anything.
I value the player with major league regular or starting pitcher “upside”.

If you look at it from a purely $$ perspective, the top back-up catchers are getting around $1.5-$3M while good 8th inning relievers are seeing $3M-$6m on the FA market. Based on that, the league is valuing a an 8th inning guy ahead of a backup catcher.

Went with Larry Greene this time. High strike out % was to be expected but the good walk rate was a nice surprise. Shows he should be developing decent pitch recognition. Not concerned about power numbers yet. 22 doubles should be nothing to sniff at, as they should start developing into home runs.
Looks like Valle is becoming today’s Wright and De Fratus.

Still with Greene. Then I think, probably, Valle. There’s still a lot to like about him as a prospect, just one glaring weakness that means he’ll probably never reach his potential. But every player on the list has some kind of imperfection at this point.

I really don’t see Valle over LGj here. Valle has two major red flags (BB% and K%), which happen to be two of the most important stats for projecting hitters, Moreover, both of these have gotten worse each of the last three years. The lack of progress is a major concern.

To me, Valle hasn’t shown he can hit above A-ball (his numbers in Clearwater were almost entirely BABIP-driven).

Even as a well known Valle basher, I’ll defend it (though I would rank him a few spots lower).

(1) He is young enough that he still has a chance to improve his approach to the point where he could be a solid major league regular. I’d say the chances of that are only about 5%, but reasonable minds may differ.

(2) As others have stated, he has some value as a reserve even if he can’t refine his approach.

(3) Look at the alternatives. Several of the guys left are likely to be no more than bench guys or relievers. There’s one guy who is a long shot to be be a major league regular (Collier), but one could argue that he has even less of a chance than Valle. And then some guys who could be more – Gueller, Greene and Cozens in the first rank, Green and Pullin behind them – but who are a LONG way away, and each with some legitimate question marks. (And then some other short season players who could develop, but aren’t even listed yet for good reason.)

“Some guys are likely to be no more than… relievers.” So? Relievers have value. If it was so bad to be a reliever, we would have gotten Adams for $750K/season and Papelbon would make about $2 mill. Good relievers go for the GDP of small nations these days. This ‘relievers are the closest thing to worthless’ meme is going to distort this list.

There is really no way to defend his abysmal BB% and rising K%. The main reason to remain positive is that he is 22 and in AAA. There is a lot of development time ahead of him so it is too early to say he will never learn plate discipline (though it is a logical conclusion at this point). And after all, I don’t care about walks, I only care about production. He has displayed some in-game power. Also, supposedly he can play good D behind the plate.

He had a wRC+ of 95 in A+ and 90 in AA. I searched all catchers with >200 PAs in the majors last year and a wRC+ of 90 was 26th in the league. So a weak hitting catcher can still be a starter if he can defend.

Valle also has some green flags — he is a good defensive catcher, handles the pitching staff well, has good power for a catcher, and reached AAA at a relatively tender age, especially for a catcher. If we hadn’t acquired Joseph, I think Valle would be valued a bit higher than people are valuing him. There really isn’t a humongous difference in value between Valle and Joseph at this point in time. LGJ also has some red flags. The guy’s calling card is power and he hasn’t put up an XBH/10 AB. He gets some credit for a big home field, but that is still at least a yellow flag. So is his K rate. A lot of young guys of LGJ’s tender years add muscle to their frame and increase in power as they age to about 26 or so. Unfortunately, LGJ seems fully filled out. I’m not sure we see anything approaching the normal age/power curve with him. As he moves to more manageable parks, doubles turn to HR, but the point is, he’s a little short of doubles also, so what we are really hoping for is that FO turn into HRs in a big way.

I agree with your points, Atown, but I am certain LGj’s problem is not that he can’t reach the seats, but that there is something tentative, defensive, flawed, overly careful, or otherwise power-robbing feature to his swing in his first year. Once he establishes a comfort zone and a power stroke that doesn’t make the K’s even worse, the fences should be child’s play for him. I see his problem as too many K’s for a singles hitters swing this year. However, I have no problem letting him find his way and swing in pro ball for a few years. To me, if he shows anything positive–walks, doubles, decent BA, that’s a good thing. Just keep working to develop the whole package.

The report that I was hearing was that he was too passive at the plate, he was willing to work the count but was having a tough time identifying or be willing to swing at the right pitches for him. It is a problem we sometimes see with Dominic Brown, you want to see him get out and crush that 1-0 fastball and not just take the pitch. Once he identifies his pitch to hit, expect both the K rate and walk rate to decrease slightly as he puts more pitches in play

While I’m a bit depressed over the Upton/Braves deal (further solidifying our fall to 3rd place), I went with LGJ or JD although I had JD above LGJ and Watson yesterday morning. I like JD a lot but his upside is only as an 8th inning guy and LGJ has the chance to be a big power guy so I changed my mind. His walk rate last year was very unexpected and if you saw him, you’d know the power was coming. Sad comment: We have so few potential everyday all star caliber players in our system, and with our older major league lineup, its very difficult to see the Nats and Braves both have so many young stars in their lineup. The next five years could be tough for the Phils…

Agreed, as long as the Phillies have Hamels and Lee (locked up together for at least 4 more years) they won’t be terrible, but unless they buy a star (which means horribly overpay on the FA market if someone manages to make it there, or mortgage the farm) there is some definite mediocrity down the road. If this team is going to compete over the next 3 years it will need one of Brown or Ruf to be an all-star or both of them to be above average regulars and the rotation is killer (not impossible that a very lefty heavy Hamels, Lee, Biddle, Morgan, Martin/Pettibone rotation is enough to carry the team). The second wild card helps but this is not a very good team and there isn’t a lot to do but trade off what isn’t part of the next window (2-3 years in the future) and see what you got in Brown, Ruf, Asche, Joseph, Gillies, Valle, and Galvis, or continue to make 0 to negative impact moves and bill them as the missing pieces.

To your original point, there is no one (outside of believing there is somehow plus power in Tocci) you would put 70 overall grade on and say this is a perennial all-star player. There are guys with first division regular ceilings but no guy that you can say that is the future, and most of the talent is really far away from contributing.

To me, it seems that Amaro is on a holding phase until 2 things happen:
1-Completing a TV deal to bring in lots of dollars and 2-maintaining reasonable competitiveness until the playing out of this “last hurrah” of the core players.

There are a few prospects who are close enough to be considered seriuos candidates for the rotation (Biddle, Morgan, Martin, P-Bone, etc.) in ’14 along with Asche and Ruf-man (& Joseph?) for the lineup. Then he might well fill out the roster with a few free agents to make up a very competitive club.

In the meantime the idea is to stay close enough to the race to allow attendance to remain high. The greatest number of change-overs should be happening in ’14…when Utley’s contract is no more and Asche and Ruf, if not already up in ’13 should be part the lineup,

The present emphasis is on the pen which is considered a vital need and which will have a giant effect on the team’s success now and continuing. Several teams have ridden their pen to excellent success and by contrast the Phils lost way too many games by their own pen in ’12.

PERHAPS, with a new TV contract finalized, the future emphasis will be to seeki out more LA prospects with increased scouting and increased budget. IMO, the future lies there for franchise success. DeFratus here for me–he offers an excellent piece to enrich the pen…

I like JDF a lot; his slider is amazing. I just need to see that he’s healthy and consistent again.

I watched every Valle home game at AAA last year. He’s decent behind the plate and younger than I thought, but he doesn’t seem to have a good plan at the plate. If he hits it, it’ll go a long way. But, he’s often behind in counts, and quickly. He seems to be easily fooled.

I read a few years ago that the Phillies really wanted Valle to become an excellent catcher. They put no emphasis on his development as a hitter thinking he would have time to become a good hitter. Daulton and Ruiz did just that. They became very good at taking pitches. Valle can too. He should be fine in the position in which Ruiz came up — good defensive catcher, otherwise a double play machine. Does anyone remember? My vote ( and my last three) for Valle. Do you remember Dutch’s .198 BA before he developed the plate discipline that made him a good hitter?

Not to mention Valle is not an elite defender. He is a very good receiver but while he has a strong arm he is poor in the running game due to his release. If he is going to need time he only has two years to figure it out (only 2 options remaining) and currently he has no clue what he is swinging at.

As already explained, the Daulton comparison makes no sense. As for Riiz, it is hard to compare because he was so old by the time he got to the high minors, but Ruiz walked more and struck out at less than half the rate, of Valle.

In today’s Keith Law chat he mentioned that Brown’s failure to develop as a hitter and fielder can be placed on the Phils and I realized that it has been a very long time. Could it be true that we just suck as an organization at developing position players? Its been since Ryan Howard since we’ve had anyone come up from the minors and become a contributor with the bat.

PS Law also mentioned that Adam Morgan’s buzz is deserved, but he sees Asche’s chances to become a regular as a long shot.

Ruiz up since Howard. Burrell is our last OF and he was the top pick in the draft. Bourn had to go to Houston to make it. Luzinski also a primo draft pick. The Phillies have had an abysmal record for a very long time when it comes to producing major league OF. Brown was poised for success and then the Phillies brass was endlessly jerking him around.

That’s certainly true. The jump to Lakewood from GCL for a HS draftee in the year after the draft or a young LA player in the year after he first comes stateside is a big jump. I remember that Valle tried that jump and failed. Zack Collier also tried and failed. Dugan and Hudson, nor any of our 2011 HS draftees attempted the leap. Surprisingly, Golson made the jump reasonably well. Hewitt and Cesar Hernandez did not attempt it. Gose did and held his own.

If he sticks in Lakewood with so-so numbers it would be hard not to have him at 1. At that age and holding his own at low A would be something special, and would raise his floor significantly in my mind. I really can’t wait to see this kid, mostly thanks to Buddy and his reports. If he is in lakewood i might actually make that trek.