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We'll move the earth for a title!Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:18:08 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1What If?: George Karl and the 2009-2010 Nuggetshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/22/what-if-george-karl-and-the-2010-2011-nuggets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/22/what-if-george-karl-and-the-2010-2011-nuggets/#commentsFri, 23 Jan 2015 02:56:39 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=11125Since joining the Nuggets in early 2005, George Karl led the franchise to a decade of sustained success. Today, we’re taking a look back at the 2009-2010 roster that many (myself included) consider to be the Nuggets’ best ever. Our guest writer Colin Deaver reflects on that seasons’ tragic end and how it has shaped Denver Nuggets history since. You can check out Colin’s last feature here and follow him on Twitter.

It might be tough to remember now, but five years ago the Denver Nuggets and its fans were in love with George Karl. Midway through the 2009-10 season, Karl had arguably the best squad of his tenure in Denver. The Nuggets were fresh off giving the eventual NBA champion Lakers all they wanted in six games in the Western Conference Finals, and Karl was selected as the Western Conference’s coach for the 2010 All-Star Game.

At the All-Star Break, Denver was 35-18, good for second place in the West. Most encouraging, the Nuggets had dominated their chief competitors- the hated Lakers- in the two games the teams had played up to that point. First, in an early season 105-79 beat down at the Pepsi Center, and later, in an early February 126-113 road victory without Carmelo Anthony, Denver seemed to prove it would be a tough out once the playoffs rolled around.

But in a press conference two days after the All-Star Game, Karl made an announcement that would change his life and the course of the Nuggets’ season. Karl had been diagnosed with cancer for the second time in five years, this time in his neck and throat, and would undergo treatment immediately. As a result, he took a leave of absence from the team, leaving assistant coach Adrian Dantley in charge.

Without Karl, Denver finished the season just 18-11, and dropped from second to fourth in the West. Without their heart and soul, the Nuggets fell to the Jazz in six games in the first round of the playoffs, a disappointing end to a once-promising season.

The next year, in 2010-11, all the momentum from the trip to the Conference Finals was gone. Anthony wanted out of Denver as soon as possible, and the Nuggets obliged on February 22, 2011, sending Melo, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Shelden Williams to the Knicks in exchange for Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov and a 2014 first round pick. The blockbuster trade altered the histories of both franchises forever, but it can be argued the Nuggets’ free-fall into the bumbling mess they are now started on February 16, 2010.

That is, of course, the day Karl announced his cancer diagnosis and was forced to miss the rest of the season. Up to that point, the Nuggets were on pace for the best season in franchise history. Anthony was having one of the most complete seasons of his Nuggets tenure; Billups was the un-questioned floor leader, keeping everyone in line and anchoring a much-improved defensive unit; Nene played the only complete 82-game season of his 13-year career; and JR Smith was again a Sixth Man of the Year Candidate.

Yes, the Nuggets had seemingly figured it out in February 2010. They seemed ready to challenge the Lakers for a spot in the NBA Finals. They appeared to be set up well for at least another 2-3 years. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Karl’s illness derailed everything, and Denver didn’t respond well to Dantley as the head coach. Fans were forced to watch as the entire season fell apart. They say in the NBA that your window for success is small, and you have to take full advantage of them when they open. The Nuggets, much like the Trail Blazers of the 1970s and the Rockets of the mid-1980s, had a short championship window, and watched as it slipped away for reasons that were out of their control.

I’ve thought about it a lot recently, and I truly believe Karl’s diagnosis was the first domino in the Nuggets’ fall into mediocrity. Allow me to fantasize for a brief minute. Say George never gets sick, and the Nuggets finish the season 23-6 instead of 18-11, and clinch the 1-seed in the West. Say they get by the Thunder in round one, then the winner of Suns/Jazz in round two and get another showdown with the Lakers in the Conference. Denver took three of four from the LakeShow in the regular season. In that scenario, they have home court advantage. Who’s to say they don’t win and advance to the NBA Finals, where they would also have had home court against the Boston Celtics, with a shot at the franchise’s first title?

It’s quite the pipe dream, I know. But what if it happened, or even if they simply took the Lakers to seven games in the Conference Finals? They head into 2010-11 with tons of momentum even in that scenario, sign an impact free agent or two, and probably keep Carmelo at the trade deadline. Maybe they’re more competitive in the 2011 Playoffs. Maybe Anthony decides to re-sign. The possibilities are endless.

Karl was in complete control of that team. Like his Seattle Supersonics teams of the 1990s, the 2009-10 Nuggets bought into George’s system and played within themselves. Karl was a great orchestrator and he reined everyone in. He was perfect for that team, and they were perfect for him. Five years later, it’s clear that team was Denver’s best shot at an NBA Title, more so than the 2008-09 team that advanced to the Conference Finals. They were more talented, more seasoned, and more prepared for a long playoff run. They knew what they wanted, and they knew Karl was the guy to get them there.

Instead, arguably the best Nuggets squad of all time fell apart in the first round of the playoffs, and less than a year later the roster was completely overhauled. Denver began to build towards a superstar-less roster, and while they competed in the regular season, things always fell apart in the playoffs. The lack of postseason success finally irked the fan base enough for the front office to let Karl go, and in 2013 Brian Shaw was hired.

You know the rest. The Nuggets have been as mediocre as it gets since Karl’s firing. This isn’t an article asking the Nuggets to bring George back; simply a guy reminiscing about a disappointing end to what could have been the best squad in Nuggets history. It’s interesting to wonder what Denver might have been, had Karl not had the terrible misfortune of being diagnosed with cancer, had everything come together in 2010 for a magical run to an NBA Championship.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/22/what-if-george-karl-and-the-2010-2011-nuggets/feed/123-on-3: Taking stockhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/12/3-on-3-taking-stock/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/12/3-on-3-taking-stock/#commentsFri, 12 Dec 2014 23:30:33 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=10376With over a quarter of the 2014-2015 NBA season in the books, we’re ready to give the Denver Nuggets their first progress report of the year. Joining us for an early season 3-on-3 is special guest Aaron Lopez. Although he’s moved on from the Nuggets beat, Aaron covered the team for the Associated Press, Rocky Mountain News, and Nuggets.com from 1994-2014. Roundball Mining Company is proud to feature Aaron alongside staff writers Kalen Deremo and yours truly, Charlie Yao.

For those unfamiliar with the 3-on-3 format, we’ll present three short questions on the state of the Nuggets followed by individual answers from our panel of three. As always, please leave your thoughts and your own answers in our comment section below.

1.) The Nuggets have gone through a wild series of swings to start the season. Is it a normal adjustment period, or indicative of a team that will struggle with consistency all year?

Aaron Lopez:We saw the inconsistency last year as the Nuggets adapted to their first year under coach Brian Shaw. Were they going to play fast? Were they going to slow it down? We saw both at times throughout the season, and I think it was generally understood and accepted by fans that there was going to be a transition period. Injuries across the board made things even tougher, so the disappointment of missing the playoffs was tempered by optimism about the near future. Which brings us to 2014-15. Shaw wanted to build off the fight he saw in his depleted team in the final two months of 2013-14. He also was excited about having a healthy roster, starting most notably with Danilo Gallinari. It was smart to bring Gallo (and J.J. Hickson, JaVale McGee and Nate Robinson) along slowly during training camp, but we’re seeing somewhat of a repeat of last year’s injury report. There’s not much room for error in the Western Conference, so injuries are a valid reason for lack of early season success.

More concerning to me is the lack of a defined identity. Everyone knows that Memphis is the Grindhouse. The Spurs are the machine. The Warriors are gunslingers built around the “greatest shooting backcourt in history of the game.” OKC is KD and Westbrook. The Clippers are Chris Paul and Lob City. Even Houston has The Beard. The Nuggets are lacking that identity. Power in numbers is nice, but the numbers aren’t supporting the marketing campaign.

Kalen Deremo:I think a normal adjustment period expires after about one-third of the season. The Nuggets will reach that point when they play the Pacers on Dec. 20. Two years ago when the Nuggets had their best season in franchise history they were 14-13 on Dec. 20. After that they went 43-12. That team also opened the year 0-3, then won four games in a row, lost three in a row, won four in a row and lost three in a row before finally evening out. So yes, oscillation should be expected. That said, George Karl was a proven winner and Brian Shaw is not. At this point Shaw hasn’t given us enough reason to believe the Nuggets will suddenly right the ship and start piling up wins. That is my concern.

Charlie Yao:The long pattern of inconsistency leads me to believe it’s something ingrained in the Nuggets’ personality. I would like to believe the Nuggets are a better team than they’ve shown, but that starts with an identity and sustained improvement on defense. Some players have made great strides towards that, like Timofey Mozgov, but many others are headed the opposite direction. Meanwhile players like JaVale, Nate Rob, and JJ Hickson have topped out at what they are and don’t move the needle for Denver. The Nuggets should go on runs the rest of the way, but don’t have enough to make a huge jump from what they are — a bubble playoff team in the West.

2.) Which Nuggets player is primed for a career season? Conversely, which player looks most likely to wind up in the annual trade deadline rumors?

Lopez: Having spent three-plus years getting to know Wilson Chandler as a person, it’s great to see him playing at a high level again. I’d say he and point guard Ty Lawson are the two guys who look like they’re in store for career years. Ty gets overlooked because of the gluttony of point guards in the West, but it would be awesome if he could somehow land a spot on the All-Star team. Denver’s team success will have a lot to do with that. As for trade talk, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson’s name out there in February. His stock will continue to rise if he stays healthy. Kenneth Faried has been a mainstay in trade rumors, but it might be tough to move him now that’s he’s locked in to a pricey long-term deal. Other candidates are McGee, Robinson and Randy Foye, but their injuries will impede the ability to get fair value in return.

Deremo: Ty Lawson. Hands down. People forget Lawson is already in his prime. He’s 27 thanks to staying in college for three years. The best basketball of his career is starting now. In November he averaged 17 points and 11 assists; on the season he’s averaging 16 and 10. If he’s on a better roster Lawson would have a great shot of making the All-Star team this year. Conversely, I see JaVale McGee as a cadaver at this point. He too will be 27 in only a month, yet his career seems to be going in the opposite direction as Lawson’s. Granted, injuries haven’t helped his case, but even when healthy JaVale looks like the same old JaVale. The Nuggets will be happy to find any team willing to take on his contract at the deadline.

Yao: Wilson Chandler, to me, looks like he’s past all of the issues that have previously held him back in Denver. Ill Wil has regained the confidence and health of his pre-lockout self. Furthermore, he’s no longer a spot starter and has earned the trust of his teammates and coach and as one of the Nuggets’ premiere players. Add it all up and you have a rock solid starter primed for a big year. On the trade front, the Nuggets are looking at a myriad of tough decisions. Their best assets are neither exceptionally cheap nor young, making for questionable returns at best. It’s more likely that the Nuggets dangle JaVale McGee with journeymen like Foye, Robinson, and Hickson as potential sweeteners.

3.) Are the Nuggets a team to be taken seriously in the western conference right now, or should they be looking ahead? Which direction would you like to see moving forward?

Lopez: It was impressive to see the Nuggets rebound from the 1-6 start, but there’s not enough evidence to suggest that they’re a playoff contender right now. The West is just too deep. Middle of the pack is a bad place to be in the NBA, but that’s where Denver is headed. I’d like to see GM Tim Connelly make some moves, but he’s in a tough spot. Lawson should remain the cornerstone of any future plan, and it’s going to be hard to get value in return for most of the people around him. Afflalo can opt out of his deal, so he might be an attractive piece for someone looking to acquire a shooter in February. I love Timofey Mozgov and he has a good contract. I would hate to see him go anywhere. I’d like to see the Nuggets find a good backup for Ty, either via trade or through the draft. Other than that, no one on this roster should be considered a dealbreaker in any potential move.

Deremo: As I will continue to preach all year, this roster is talented. It really is. Lawson is playing at an All-Star level. Chandler is having the best year of his career (averaging 20 points and seven boards in December). The Nuggets have a few promising rookies and lots of depth. While injuries continue to be a major hindrance to this team’s success, I still see the Nuggets as being capable of stacking up some impressive win streaks when healthy. To me, the goal of this season should be to win as many games as possible by the end of the year. That’s it. There’s too much talent for this team to have a fire sale at the deadline and tank. If Shaw can’t win with this roster then the Nuggets need to find someone who can.

Yao: I’m already on record saying the Nuggets have met their ceiling. Teams like the Suns and Pelicans can find plenty of value in an eight-seed finish this year, but not Denver. This core group of players isn’t competing for titles now or anytime soon. The future is here, and it makes sense to think about what the Nuggets might need when they’re really ready to win. Trudging ahead with more Hickson and Foye type additions is a tacit admission that the Nuggets are okay with the middle for two more years.

It’s a loaded question, and one we’ll be doing our best to answer all season. One outstanding report from ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz shines the light on poor management, dissecting the league-wide view of why one of the proudest franchises in the NBA has sunk so low, so fast.

That’s not just a hot sportz take, it’s a careful distillation of all the evidence surrounding a franchise in turmoil. Ever since the failed re-tooling and re-branding of a 57-win team, the Nuggets have followed the natural progression of a rudderless franchise at odds with it’s own identity.

When Tim Connelly took the reigns of the team in 2013, the plan was simple. Denver had a successful run with a deep pool of talent playing a unique brand of basketball, and it worked. Never mind losing the architects and curators of all that success, the formula was in place and it was a simple matter of tinkering with that depth in order to get over the top. What was true then must be true now, and surely more of the same could only be better.

It should be clear now that building a win-now team under those pretenses was a colossal mistake.

Despite ever-abundant depth and the Rocky Mountain High to propel them at home, the Denver Nuggets are an unmitigated disaster. Every attempt to address the weaknesses of those run-and-gun Nuggets has come at the expense of the run-and-gun identity itself. As a result, we’re left with a team with no identity and a bunch of pieces designed to fit a style of play that coaches and management would rather leave behind.

Brian Shaw will bear the brunt of responsibility for the embarrassment currently known as the Nuggets, but Tim Connelly is at least equally culpable. If the goal is to win games, Shaw will have to continue to bend his style to a fast-paced, defense-last brand of basketball. The defensively-challenged roster assembled by Tim Connelly demands it. It’s an endless compromise with no clear endgame.

“The Big Trade” that has masqueraded as the next great hope for a turnaround also looks as much like fool’s gold as the actual team. JaVale McGee on a losing team only makes him more untradeable, if that’s even possible, and Gallinari is slowly earning that same moniker himself. In fact, I’d argue that every player outside of Mozgov, Foye and Chandler have badly declined to career lows in terms of trade value.

So it really would seem that the Nuggets are at a crossroads seven games into the season, playing for pride while struggling to decide who they are as a team.

Even if this is rock bottom and it can’t get any worse, I’ve seen enough throughout seven games and the past year-and-a-half to call it. It’s over. The dream of winning games this season is dead. There are only two locks for the Nuggets in 2014-2015 — whatever happens at the trade deadline and the draft lottery in May. Take it to the bank.

Actually, don’t take it to the bank quite yet. Make like the Nuggets and pick up a lottery ticket first. Power in numbers — it’s a movement.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/13/the-plane-has-crashed-into-the-mountain/feed/16Recap: Portland Trailblazers 130, Denver Nuggets 113http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/12/vs-trailblazers-david/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/12/vs-trailblazers-david/#commentsThu, 13 Nov 2014 01:00:00 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9309Following in Charlie’s footsteps from a few nights back when he decided to forgo player grades, I too refuse to grade anybody’s performance this game as it’s not seeing the forest for the trees, so to speak. Doing a traditional recap at this point is nothing but persnickety. Instead I will write something I was planning on publishing a few days ago but never got the chance to get up…

Brain Shaw’s tenure as head coach of the Denver Nuggets should conclude now. It is not that I want him gone, nor that fans want him gone (though some surely do), but the simple fact he’s earned his own firing by now.

After seven games (about 12 percent of the season) the Nuggets are 1-6, the third worst team in the entire NBA, with the second worst points per game differential, the second most points surrendered on an average basis and the current longest losing streak in the NBA (along with the Knicks). The Nuggets are not just losing, they’re getting absolutely destroyed every night. If you haven’t been watching the games, let me enlighten you on how these “contests” unfurl:

The game starts. After eight minutes the Nuggets are down by 10. After the first quarter concludes the Nuggets have surrendered roughly 38 points to their opponent. By halftime the game is over. Brian Shaw has also used his entire bench, 13 players, by this point. The team is usually down by 15 to 20 points. When the third quarter starts Brian Shaw trots out his third-string unit, ostensibly because they’re the only ones who listen to him, the only ones who “get it.” They play well for about eight minutes, then by the end of the third quarter the talent disparity between them and the opponent’s starting unit manifests into about the same point differential as was present at half. The game then ends, players sulk off the floor and the camera zooms in on Brian Shaw who nods to the opposing head coach with a countenance so despondent you’d swear the Pepsi Center will start dubbing Sarah McLachlan from the loudspeakers to better match the moment.

There is no doubt that at this time Shaw has lost the team. Arron Afflalo, the team’s supposed leader, was benched the entire second half. Darrell Arthur, a normally amiable type, has already been suspended one game for an outburst of frustration. Even Timofey Mozgov, perhaps the most mild-mannered player the Nuggets have had in years, has acted out in two games this season getting into scuffles with opponents.

In summary: The 2014-15 Denver Nuggets are the embodiment of a worst-case scenario realized. You could not even have imagined a more gruesome and disappointing season if you tried. The Nuggets’ offense is a series of misfired jump shots and isolations. Nobody plays defense because nobody really seems to care. Everyone is listless and awful. Players carry out their roles with perfunctory effort. And worst of all, the Nuggets are losing before they even step onto the floor.

Oddly enough, what worries me most about the current situation plaguing the Nuggets isn’t Brian Shaw, nor any of the players, nor Tim Connelly, but rather the Nuggets’ owner, Josh Kroenke. In situations like these it’s the owners who usually has the final say in whether a coach is retained or let go. Because like a producer of a film, Josh Kroenke is the one funding the entire operation. It’s his money; he’s free to do whatever he wants with it.

The problem in this scenario is the fact Josh Kroenke already payed George Karl his near $5 million salary last season for not even coaching a single game for the Denver Nuggets (yet he couldn’t pay Masai Ujiri that same amount to run his team). Meanwhile, Brian Shaw is still on the hook for the remainder of this season and next, not to mention an option two years down the road.

So the question fans must ask themselves now becomes: How committed is Josh Kroenke to winning? That’s what this all boils down to. You can say whatever you want about Brian Shaw and Tim Connelly, but as anyone who watches sports on a consistent basis well knows: Winning starts from the top down. The best owners in sports by no coincidence oversee the most successful franchises in sports. It’s as much a truth of American competition as gravity is a law of nature.

How long Brian Shaw remains head coach will correlate directly with how much Josh Kroenke is committed to winning. The longer this drags out the more parsimonious Kroenke will reveal himself to be. In addition to losing even more games and more money Kroenke also runs the risk of alienating fans along the way, as even the most ardent Nuggets supporters will jettison themselves before clinging to what’s clearly becoming an inevitable and undignified shipwreck.

The ball is in Kroenke’s court. This decision is not difficult. The Nuggets are on a downward spiral, getting booed on their homecourt by their own loyal fans seven games into the season. Allowing this to continue would be setting the worst precedent a professional sports franchise owner could ever possibly aspire to bestow upon his or her fanbase.

Your move Josh.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/12/vs-trailblazers-david/feed/193Image Breakdown: Denver’s defunct perimeter defensehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/11/image-breakdown-denvers-defunct-perimeter-defense/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/11/image-breakdown-denvers-defunct-perimeter-defense/#commentsTue, 11 Nov 2014 06:02:59 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=10042If you’ve been paying any attention to the Nuggets through the first handful of games this season you’ve likely noticed a few frightening patterns. One of those is the team’s absolute refusal to play anything remotely resembling defense in any shape or form, which is detailed below in a guest post by fellow Nuggets fan and KSWO 7 News Lawton, OK, sports anchor Colin Deaver. You can follow Colin on Twitter here.

It doesn’t take a trip to the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference to figure out that the Nuggets have been retched defensively through the first six games of the 2014-15 season. Denver is 29th in the NBA in points allowed (108 points per game — just ahead of the Lakers). During their five-game losing streak the Nuggets have allowed over 100 points every contest, perhaps most embarrassingly giving up 102 points to what was basically the Thunder’s D-League team. Additionally they’re 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage (.453), a stat that might be worse if Denver wasn’t sixth in opponent’s field goal attempts (84.17), thus giving teams more opportunities to miss.

It all came to a head in Sunday’s 116-100 drubbing at the hands of the Trail Blazers when Denver allowed Portland to go 16-31 from 3-point land. It should have been understood that Portland is one of the top shooting teams in the NBA. They were top 10 in 3-point percentage a year ago (37 percent), and early in the new season the Blazers have upped that mark to 38 percent (good for seventh in the NBA), while knocking down 10.4 triples per game (good for second in the NBA). Obviously a team that shoots the ball that well is going to make some shots regardless of who’s defending them. What they don’t need is help from the opposition, which is exactly what Denver gave them.

On 14 of Portland’s 16 made 3-pointers, Denver’s defenders were way out of position resulting in wide-open looks for the Blazers’ legion of snipers. I mean, just look at some of these still frames showing how much space Portland had on 87 percent of their made threes:

Portland’s first three of the night came from Nic Batum. As you can see, there’s no one within 10 feet of him. A Damian Lillard dribble-drive forced Chandler and Faried to help, so Lillard kicked out to LaMarcus Aldridge who quickly swung the ball to Batum in the corner for three. Ty Lawson has to be better at containing drives, but Chandler also has to recognize whom he’s guarding and stick with him since Batum is a career 37 percent shooter from downtown.

If Lillard looks like he’s shooting a free throw, it’s because that’s basically what you’re giving him when he has that much space. Denver’s transition defense was poor all night, but it was even worse on this play in particular. Lawson is supposed to be guarding Lillard and had plenty of time to get to him before Lillard got the ball. Instead, he ran to the middle of the floor and joined his teammates as they stood and watched Lillard drill the shot.

Wesley Matthews hit five first-half threes on Sunday, all of which were clean looks like this one. Timofey Mozgov was already switched onto Batum, clearly a tough matchup. When Batum drove right by him, Kenneth Faried had no choice but to help off and leave Matthews wide open in the corner. It’s a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation for Faried, but Mozgov must do a better job of staying in front, Faried needed to be playing one pass away on Matthews to make the angle of the pass tougher and Chandler had to be in better position to rotate over on Batum when he drove.

This is my favorite wide-open Portland three of the night, but only for its tragicomedy. See Steve Blake down there in the corner? No one around him is there? That’s because his man, Randy Foye, is clear on the other side of the paint doing God knows what. Blake kicked out to Matthews at the top of the key, ran to the opposite corner as Foye got screened, then didn’t bother to find his man once he wasn’t being screened anymore. Matthews then swung the ball to C.J. McCollum who drove in and kicked to Blake for the trey-ball. It’s a terrible effort on Foye’s part to not even make an attempt to get back to his man.

This was bad pick-and-roll defense combined with miscommunication. Aldridge set a high screen for Lillard to come off, and Lawson switched on to Aldridge as he rolled into the paint. Instead of staying with Lillard, Mozgov just turned his back and began to run back towards the basket as Lillard rose up and nailed Portland’s 15th three of the night. Two things: 1.) I don’t know why the biggest and smallest players on the floor are switching, as it always creates two giant mismatches. 2.) Obviously there was miscommunication between Lawson and Mozgov as to what the defensive scheme was. Lawson thought they were switching and Mozgov thought he was hedging and getting back to Aldridge. To me, that’s a coaching issue. Brian Shaw has to make sure his team knows what they’re doing on the floor. Clearly they don’t, because they gave up 14 wide-open threes to one of the top shooting squads in the league.

Even after Sunday the Nuggets are still league average defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot 34 percent from deep. In five of six games Nuggets’ opponents have attempted 20 or more triples and really haven’t shot the ball well. Before Sunday, Nuggets’ opponents were 28-98, or 28.5 percent from three.

But that by no means shows that Denver was defending the trey better in its first five games. The Nuggets’ first five games were against Detroit, Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Cleveland. All four of those opponents rank 17th or worse in 3-point percentage through the first two weeks of the season and their inability to knock down threes was more their doing than Denver’s. Cleveland is the best of the bunch at 33 percent and they were 6-23 (26 percent). The Kings, whose 27 percent from deep is currently dead last in the league, actually managed to go 8-20 (40 percent) in the game in Sacramento, a massive upgrade over what they had been doing to start the season.

The Thunder (32 percent) and Pistons (32 percent as well) were 6-20 and 6-26 respectively against Denver, but they are both interior-heavy teams right now with minimal shooting (Serge Ibaka’s 42.4 percent is the best for any guy on either team right now). Especially against Oklahoma City, the Nuggets gave up crucial wide-open threes, including one to Ibaka after Denver had cut its deficit to three late in the fourth quarter:

The fact Denver got to play its first five games against four of the league’s 13 worst 3-point shooting teams shows that the low deep-ball percentage numbers for their opponents before Sunday had much more to do with who they were playing and less with what Denver was doing defensively. Plus, the Nuggets lost four of those five games and were blown out in three of them. Imagine what the games would’ve looked like had any of those teams been near league average shooting the ball from deep.

At 1-5, an inability to defend the three isn’t the Nuggets’ only defensive deficiency. Nuggets’ opponents average 22.2 assists per contest, which ranks Denver’s defense 20th in the NBA and shows the amount of ball movement the Nuggets allow. Portland alone had 27 assists on Sunday, another reason why they had so many wide-open threes.

Opponents’ assists numbers are bad, no doubt. And what’s more, Denver is 23rd in forcing turnovers (12.3 per game) so far this season. They aren’t generating much of a defensive presence and any time teams are allowed to simply run their offense getting whatever they want on pick-and-rolls and off-the-ball screening action, well, as they say in South Park just an hour south of Denver: You’re gonna have a bad time.

As bad as these numbers appear, it’s still very early. Six games is hardly a big enough sample size to make 82-game assumptions about how Denver’s defense will ultimately pan out. But the writing is absolutely on the wall thus far and the defense has progressively gotten worse during Denver’s recent five-game losing streak. It’s been said before and it bears repeating now: This Nuggets team has the talent to at least challenge for a playoff spot — that is, if they’re playing to their abilities. Currently, however, they are not. And if things don’t change the Nuggets won’t be anything but a lottery team come next June.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/11/image-breakdown-denvers-defunct-perimeter-defense/feed/25Film Room: Jusuf Nurkic’s defense and passinghttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/film-room-jusuf-nurkics-defense-and-passing/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/film-room-jusuf-nurkics-defense-and-passing/#commentsWed, 29 Oct 2014 17:56:13 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9892In the wake of the NBA draft last June, few could have imagined that a significant chunk of the Nuggets fan base would, at the onset of the 2014-15 season, be more excited about Denver’s largely unkown 16th pick from Bosnia than the return of Danilo Gallinari.

Yet here we are.

Right out of the gates, Jusuf Nurkic endeared himself to Nuggets fans with his feisty, pesky defense, his surprisingly adept aptitude for passing, and his ability to score in the low post. Given Nurkic’s highly impressive preseason performance, it would be all too easy to fall into hyperbole at this infantile point in his career (Arvydas Sabonis comparisons, anyone?). Yet he’s given us too much evidence to chew on to dismiss visions of a beastly and glorious future as mere delusion.

We can’t say yet for sure. Eight games is a miniscule sample size, and basing any analysis on the preseason is bound to get you in trouble.

But still. Man. Come on. This dude is ridiculous already. And he’s only 20.

Full disclosure: I had been meaning to go into some deep analysis on this post, but putting the video together (and other life-related things) took too much time. So in order to get this out to you before the Nuggets’ first regular season game, my comments will necessarily be brief. And so I leave it to you, trusted RMC readers and commenters, to fill in the blanks.

With that, here are 30 of Nurkic’s more impressive defensive and passing plays from the preseason, with some observations below:

Some general observations:

Going multiple times through the three games I clipped from, and watching these plays and others over and over again, the aspect of Nurkic’s game which emerged to me as the most impressive is his keen court awareness and high basketball IQ. His feel and instinct for the game are just spot on. Even when a pass is errant (as the one which assisted Nate’s crazy long 3-pointer), the split-second decision making usually is the correct basketball play. Although his execution may still be as spotty as could be expected from a rookie project big man, his choices – even at the speed of the NBA game – are usually on the money. So far, he has looked like a veteran more often than might have been expected, but perhaps this shouldn’t surprise us so much given that he’s already been playing professional ball for two years..

Jusuf clearly knows exactly where his teammates are, where the defense is, and where the cutting and passing lanes are. It might not even be too much of an exaggeration to say that he’s more advanced in this area at age 20 than any of his more veteran big man teammates, with the possible exception of Darrell Arthur. I referenced Sabonis earlier, and while it’s obviously too soon to make such a grandiose projection, the similarities in his little no-look over-the-shoulder passes, his nearly instantaneous touch passes and his court vision and awareness do seem to beg the comparison, at least in principle. We can check back in a couple of months to see if he can extend this distributive prowess into the regular season, but if he can, he’ll almost certainly emerge as Denver’s best passing big man.

“…for his size.” “…for his position.” Get used to opposing teams’ announcers uttering these phrases in reference to Nurkic. Defensively what impresses me most from what I’ve seen so far is his lateral quickness, his ability to stay in front of his man, to play defense with his feet rather than his hands. We might easily brush off anything accomplished in the preseason as “not counting.” But Nurkic was at times (and to varying extents) successfully defending one-on-one the likes of Blake Griffin, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Chris Paul. Yes, let’s keep things in check and remember that an eight-game sample size might not mean much. But still, he consistently either covered his assignment or switched onto a guard and did a very solid job of denying penetration to the basket, chasing 3-point shooters off the arc, deflecting mid- and long-range jumpers, and forcing opponents operating from the low post into taking bad, awkward shots. Once again, the hyperbole caveat applies. But once again Nurkic is making us ask the question: Is he Denver’s best big man defender already, both in the paint and on the perimeter?

I may be jumping the gun. All of us who Nurkic is making converts of may be jumping the gun. But damn it, he’s just making the temptation to believe that he’s already NBA-ready and has unlimited upside practically irresistible.

We shall see. But no matter what happens, Jusuf Nurkic has located himself front and center of reasons for Nuggets fans to be excited for the 2014-15 season. Let the games begin.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/film-room-jusuf-nurkics-defense-and-passing/feed/5An optimist’s guide to the 2014-15 Denver Nuggetshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/#commentsWed, 29 Oct 2014 00:20:49 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9858Over the years I’ve gathered this sneaking suspicion that I — and to some extend Roundball Mining Company — have developed a reputations as a cynic. I’ve never really debunked this sentiment, as there are a lot worse things in this world to be called than cynical (many of which I’ve also been called), however I must confess that the reasoning behind this label has always sort of bugged me. I’ve been pegged a George Karl “hater,” a detractor, but more than anything, a pessimist.

I’ve always found this paradoxical. In my personal life I’m just about as optimistic as it gets. Optimism is my mantra. I even consider myself a student of optimism. I firmly believe its practice engenders true happiness and am an ardent consumer of the studies to prove it. For me, identifying a discouraging pattern and expressing disapproval and frustration with its perpetuity, wanting to explore a different path after coming to terms with these realizations, should never be labeled “pessimistic.” I see that, rather, as optimism enacted. Wanting to take the steps necessary to improve upon something should never be looked at as pessimistic.

So what am I getting at here? What’s the point?

Aside from blowing smoke up my own ass, the point is (if you haven’t already guessed): I’m optimistic — not only about life, but about the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets. And I believe you should be as well. Here are seven reasons why…

7. The Northwest Division isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

For a while there it was looking like the Northwest Division was gonna be one of the tougher divisions in basketball — and to some extent, considering the star players and home court advantages, it still is. But I assure you, it’s not nearly as intimidating as it appeared last year.

For starters, Kevin Love is no longer in Minnesota.

Count that as a win.

The former MVP of the NBA, Kevin Durant, is also going to be sidelined for the first month of the season, during which time the Nuggets face the Thunder twice.

Count that as a win.

Then you have the Utah Jazz who are basically still in the midst of the most half-assed rebuild I’ve ever seen, teeming with low-level starters, youthful role players who’ve yet to blossom into consistent, nightly contributors and a head coach straight out of an L.L. Bean catalog.

Count that as a win.

And while the Portland Trailblazers are gonna be tough all year long — actually, scratch that. They’re just gonna be a pain from start to finish, no gettin’ around it.

The point is, the Nuggets should dispose of the Wolves and Jazz fairly easily throughout the year, winning at least five of the eight games between the two. They should also stand a solid chance of winning two games against the Thunder and at least one against the Blazers. That’s eight of 12 in a division with a championship caliber team, an MVP, a former Rookie of the Year and perhaps the best power forward in the game.

What need be said bout Nurkic that hath not been said already? Nothing! He is a beast and all other beasts pale in comparison! (Perhaps a future tombstone epitaph?)

Nurkic will continue to develop throughout the year, but my favorite predraft prospect is already winning over the hearts of fans across Nuggets Nation, including head coach Brian Shaw, who in recent interviews has hinted at Nurkic playing a significant role for the Nuggets this season. This, of course, is a good thing for precisely two reasons…

One: Nurkic is just flat-out better than a lot of players on the Nuggets roster. Yes, he fouls at an abnormally high rate which is something Shaw certainly needs to monitor, but outside of that impediment Nurkic is proficient in nearly ever category. He’s a major threat in the low post (having already dismantled Taj Gibson in the preseason), has incredible vision and distribution skills for a man (or beast, rather) his size and gives the Nuggets one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, being…

Two: Low-post defense. I cannot stress enough just how important it is to possess mobile bigs who can shuffle their feet and defend one on one at a high level in the NBA. Nurkic does just that. Pairing him and Timofey Mozgov (another solid low-post defender) in the paint will almost entirely negate their opponents’ effectiveness in getting to the hole at times, thus rendering their counterparts jump shooters and therefore one dimensional.

Nurkic is still very young and should run into his fair share of obstacles throughout the year. He’ll also likely see a fluctuation in minutes as he, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov battle for playing time at center. But if he can bring solid low-post defense for 15-20 minutes a night, that will go a long way in solidifying his role on the team as well as improving the Nuggets’ overall win total from a year ago.

5. Arron Afflalo is back…

While I love Jusuf Nurkic I might love Arron Afflalo equally, if not more. The guy is the definition of consummate professional. He does all the right things, says all the right words, never complains, never blames stuff on his teammates and on down the line. He’s a blue-collar, hard-working, regular guy who just so happens to be a really good basketball player as well. And I, for one, could not be happier to have him back with the Nuggets.

Aside from the fact Afflalo is a major upgrade over Randy Foye at the starting shooting guard position and the fact he’s improved his points-per-game and assists-per-game outputs every year since his induction into the NBA eight seasons ago (seriously, how many guys can claim that?), the biggest attribute Afflalo brings to the table, the one thing this team has missed most since his departure in 2012, is leadership. Arron Afflalo is a grown ass man who takes responsibility for his actions and atones for those made by his teammates without even the slightest hint of puerility. He’s a captain amongst deckhands, a player-coach amongst mere players and an (insert something great here) amongst (now insert something not as great here).

In a sense, Afflalo is sort of that missing piece that championship-caliber teams often acquire in the offseason in the hopes of securing a title. And though the Nuggets aren’t quite ready to defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a seven-game series just yet, the principle remains the same.

This is one piece to the puzzle that’s been missing for far too long.

Welcome back Triple A.

4. And so is Danilo Gallinari… AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE!

Let’s recap something here, because I think some fans and some glorified fans who like to hear themselves talk a lot more than regular fans (aka, members of the media) are being flat-out delusional about this.

Danilo Gallinari is without question one of the very best players on this roster. By season’s end he may very well be the best. When he went down with injury over a year and a half ago he was hands down one of the top three players on the Nuggets roster. So why is it exactly that the media and far too many Nuggets fans are predicting this team to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 41 games or less? I don’t know how to say this without my pinky finger just so happening to touch the “Caps Lock” key, but… DANILO “THE ITALIAN STALLION” GALLINARI IS WORTH FIVE FREAKING GAMES ALONE — AT THE VERY FREAKING MINIMUM! AND THIS ISN’T EVEN TO MENTION ARRON “O CAPTAIN! MY CAPTAIN!” AFFLALO, JAVALE “SHAQTIN’ THIS CASH” MCGEE, NATE “THE GREAT(?)” ROBINSON, JUSUF “DRAX” NURKIC OR GARY “HARRY CARAY(???)” HARRIS!!! Why, therefore, would people assume this team is going to win a measly FOUR MORE GAMES than it did last season?!? It just doesn’t make sense. Not even in the slightest sense. Not at all.

Look, it’s ridiculously silly for us to engage in back-and-fourth banter about precisely how many games the Nuggets are going to win this year because none of us are clairvoyants and none of us know what’s going to happen with trades or injuries. But I’m going to venture out on a limb and say this team, if healthy, is fully capable of winning upwards of four to five more games than it did last year after being completely and utterly decimated by injuries for 82 games. And if they don’t, then I guess it’s time we put Brian Shaw under the microscope. But before we get to that theoretically (currently) non-existent plot point in our narrative, let’s keep one thing in mind…

3. Brian Shaw is no longer a rookie

One of the more erroneous and puzzling notions about professional sports coaches — and coaches in general for that matter — is that they are immutable. In the eyes of fans a coach is as good the day they retire as the day they were hired for their first professional gig. In reality we know this not to be true. Look, for example, at the records of first-time head coaches in the NBA. There’s a clear-cut pattern and it’s not exactly one deserving of accolades.

In his first season with the Spurs current reigning NBA Coach of the Year, Gregg Popovich, suffered a similar situation as Brian Shaw, losing most of his roster to injuries and finishing with a paltry 20-62 record. Red Auerbach resigned twice in his first five seasons as head coach before joining the Boston Celtics. Chuck Daly was fired after his first year as head coach. And of course George Karl was fired twice in his first two seasons with the Cavs and Warriors.

What do all these coaches have in common? Aside from designated spots in the Hall of Fame, it’s rings (Karl not included) — 16 combined, to be exact.

Judging Shaw based on one year, his first year as head coach with an injury-depleted roster nonetheless, is the very antithesis of scientific analysis. Sure he made some questionable decisions in his first spell as head coach. Who hasn’t? Who hasn’t experimented with lineups and play calling during the doldrums of a lost season? Hell, even some of the most eminent NBA championship coaches are still making highly questionable decisions in the playoffs and NBA Finals.

Everyone in the world makes mistakes. It’s part of life. What separates the best coaches, the most successful people, the most highly regarded figures of our society is not that they grow incapable of committing mistakes, but that they always learn from them.

At the very least, Shaw deserves a chance to learn from his.

2. The Nuggets are deeper than they’ve been in the last decade

For how many years have we driveled over the Nuggets’ depth? It seems like forever. Every October we list the Nuggets bench as the most threatening asset. And while it’s true that for at least the last five years this team has had one of the better benches in the NBA, I don’t think it’s ever been as good as it is this year.

Assuming the Nuggets start a very respectable lineup of Lawson, Afflalo, Gallinari, Faried and Mozgov, look then at the likely second unit of Robinson (one of the best energy guys in the league), Foye (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league), Chandler (one of the best backup small forwards in the league — perhaps the best), Hickson (…) and Nurkic (looking like one of the best pure centers in the league). While they’re no 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, that’s still one hell of a second unit, one that I’d bet could hang with about five or six starting units in the NBA. And that’s not even including JaVale McGee (one of the best shot blockers in the league), Darrell Arthur (a solid defender and stretch forward), Alonzo Gee (another tenacious wing defender), Gary Harris (who knows where he’ll be by the end of the year) and Erick Green, all of who comprise an additional five-man unit that could just as easily pass as a better bench than those owned by the cellar-dwelling teams in the NBA.

On any given night the Nuggets could utilize a combination of 10-13 legitimate NBA starters and role players to stifle their opponent. And when injuries strike this team should be as prepared as ever to weather the storm — assuming none of those injuries are season ending and obtained by starters, which is a bit of a different story as we well know.

People have compared this year’s Nuggets team favorably to the 2012-13 Nuggets squad that won 57 games. They say it’s deep and that Afflalo is a near equivalent substitute for Andre Iguodala. But I have to strongly disagree. Firstly, that team also had George Karl who knew how to win regular season games like nobody’s business. And as much as I love Afflalo, his defense is nowhere near the level of Iguodala’s, who is perhaps the best wing defender in the NBA. Furthermore, that team was healthy most of the year and had a bench unit that featured Corey Brewer (still one of the best role players in the entire league, evident from his 50-point game last season), Andre Miller (who was without question the best backup point guard in the league at the time), Kosta Koufos (who nobody can deny had an excellent year) and Wilson Chandler (in his best season as a Nugget). That team was simply more talented, more experienced and more poised to win on a nightly basis than the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

Rather than drawing parallels with the record-setting 57-win squad, I see this team more as a reincarnation of the 2010-11 post-Carmelo Anthony Nuggets combined with the 2011-12 lockout-shortened 38-win Nuggets. Those were teams that had no standout stars but won many games through the second unit by submitting waves of players with starter-level talent. Guys like Al Harrington, Chris Anderson, J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos and Anthony Carter all contributed to one of the more lethal benches in the league and draw many similarities to the one currently occupied by the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

But if you’re still not convinced role players can win you a robust amount of games over the course of an NBA sesaon, consider my last point…

1. Everyone is better

Everyone is better. Everybody on the Nuggets roster — the mainstays, the building blocks, the pillars, the sidekicks, even the coaches — they’re all improved. But mostly, the starters.

Look at the leaps and bounds made by Ty Lawson in his game over the last several years. He’s gone from fringe starter to fringe All-Star. Kenneth Faried is another who’s already far surpassed my expectations when the Nuggets drafted him in 2011. The growth he had in the latter half of last year alone was more than I ever thought possible. And then there’s Mozgov. What can you even say about him other than the fact Tim Connelly doesn’t get near the credit he deserves for re-signing the 7-foot milky White Russian. He’s gone from third-string punching bag to the most beloved big man on a team with JaVale McGee and Jusuf Nurkic, two of the more endearing personalities in the NBA.

Then there are the more nuanced improvements. Yes, Gallinari is coming off a major injury, but he’s looked great in the preseason and any Gallinari is better than no Gallinari.

Improvement.

Afflalo, as mentioned above, has increased his scoring and assists outputs every year in the league.

Improvement.

JaVale McGee is healthy again, and like Gallinari, a healthy JaVale McGee is better than no JaVale McGee.

Improvement.

Same story for Nate Robinson.

Improvement.

And here’s where it gets even more nuanced. Because the Nuggets had so many injuries last year and because those players are now back, this allows those who filled in for them to move back to their natural positions and contributing roles. In this sense, upgrading the shooting guard position (an improvement in itself) now enables Randy Foye to slide into his natural position as backup shooting guard rather than starter.

Improvement.

Gallinari pushes Wilson Chandler again into his seemingly destined role of shadowing the Italian small forward off the bench.

Improvement.

A healthy combination of Ty Lawson and Nate Robinson allows for a solid one-two punch at the point-guard position and prevents Foye from playing combo guard for weeks on end.

Improvement.

J.J. Hickson seeing the least amount of time at center and starting power forward is always a plus.

Improvement. Improvement. Improvement.

The emergence of Timofey Mozgov is an upgrade in itself and allows the best trio of centers in the entire NBA to challenge each other for minutes.

Improvement.

Say what you will of Alonzo Gee, but he’s now an established NBA vet with more than five years of experience in the league including a starting stint in Cleveland and is a major upgrade over Quincy Miller, at least defensively speaking.

Improvement.

And lastly, there are even smaller improvements visible everywhere across the board, from adding a young and promising rookie like Gary Harris, to Darrell Arthur expanding his range, to Tim Connelly looking more and more like a trustworthy, savvy GM, to Brian Shaw emphasizing defense in press conferences, to…

Ah, screw it. Nuggets basketball is back. And if that’s not an improvement in your life, if that’s not something to get excited about, something to look forward to every day, then no amount of writing is ever gonna convince you otherwise.

Yours truly,

A 2014-15 Denver Nuggets optimist.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/feed/5#NuggetsRank No. 14: Quincy Millerhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/01/nuggetsrank-14-quincy-miller/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/01/nuggetsrank-14-quincy-miller/#commentsWed, 01 Oct 2014 13:25:46 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9433For the third year in a row Roundball Mining Company will feature a series of articles ranking who our writers feel are the best players on the Denver Nuggets roster. This has come to be known as #NuggetsRank and occurs in conjunction with ESPN.com’s annual #NBARank series where all 500 players in the NBA are voted worst to first. Our writers have been polled and the scores tallied, creating as close as you’ll get to a definitive echelon of the entire Denver Nuggets roster.

The very fact that Quincy Miller has ended up at a lowly 14th in our #NuggetsRank series – below two of Denver’s three newly arrived rookies – speaks volumes about the less-than-encouraging state of his development.

At the beginning of the 2013-14 season, following a rookie year in which he played a total of merely 26 minutes over seven games, it appeared that things were looking up for Q-Mil. Danilo Gallinari’s injury meant Miller would have his first real opportunity to get extensive playing time. And Brian Shaw raised the bar on expectations of Quincy’s potential during training camp when he compared him to Pacers All-Star Paul George, stating, “I think he has a chance to be a real special talent.”

While that chance may still exist, Miller was mostly unable to capitalize on his opportunity to prove it when his role expanded last season. True, he did show some signs of improvement. The addition of a 3-point shot which was nonexistent his rookie year was a positive sign that he was extending his range and diversifying his offensive array. Still, per Basketball-Reference.com, he had the lowest offensive rating among all Nuggets players with significant minutes. More troubling, after the All-Star break he trended downward, dropping off in both true shooting percentage, from .503 to .422, and offensive rating, from 90 to 84.

Some of that might be chalked up to a young sophomore being called upon to carry a greater burden than he was prepared for following injuries to his teammates. But in addition to his offensive struggles, Miller was more often than not lost on the defensive end as well. Jan Vesely, a player with arguably less raw talent, was able to make a greater impact simply by virtue of being an energy guy. Similarly, if Quincy is to find a long-term niche in the NBA as a reliable role player, he will need to find at least one area of his game to cultivate and specialize in.

But this has always been, and may always be, his biggest problem. He’s decent enough at a wide range of skills, but doesn’t really excel in any one of them. He recently tweeted that he’s grown taller than 6’11”, which may even further confound the confusion about what position he should play. He’s too lanky to go up against the league’s stronger, bulkier power forwards and centers, but lacks the lateral quickness to effectively defend athletic small forwards.

By all accounts, it seems like Quincy is a pretty great guy who has been working very hard to get better. So it would be fantastic if he could break new ground this season with sufficiently significant improvements in his game to rekindle optimism about his future development. The Nuggets coaching staff still appear to be upbeat on his upside, so although he’s currently on a non-guaranteed contract with veteran training camp invite Alonzo Gee nipping at his heels, Miller still seems to safe as frontrunner to make the final cut. But even if he does, he’ll need to make some meaningful progress this season in order to prove he truly belongs in the NBA.

2014 #NuggetsRank

14. Quincy Miller
15. Erick Green

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/01/nuggetsrank-14-quincy-miller/feed/22014-15 Denver Nuggets minutes projections: Don’t expect the rookies to get much burnhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/09/20/2014-15-denver-nuggets-minutes-projectiions-dont-expect-the-rookies-to-get-much-burn/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/09/20/2014-15-denver-nuggets-minutes-projectiions-dont-expect-the-rookies-to-get-much-burn/#commentsSat, 20 Sep 2014 14:32:51 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9200Predicting the distribution of minutes for any NBA team is in many ways a doomed venture from the start.

One need look no further than the 2013-14 Nuggets to find ample evidence of a team’s inherent unpredictability. A whopping four torn ACLs, an unexpected player-coach meltdown involving seasoned veteran Andre Miller, the addition of Aaron Brooks and Jan Vesely who averaged 29 and 17 minutes per game respectively – none of these things could reasonably have been foreseen by even the sagest NBA experts. Adding an additional layer of complication (one bound to persist in 2014-15) was the large number of middling players competing for limited minutes on an overstuffed roster.

Yet at least one seemingly irresistible force does tend to propel the allotment of minutes toward a predictable pattern: talent. Although there are exceptions, as a general rule talent reigns supreme over nearly everything when it comes to who gets the most minutes. Case in point, prior to the start of last season Brian Shaw did not seem overly enamored with the two point guard strategy so heavily deployed by his predecessor George Karl. But even if he had wanted to move away from that (and, perhaps, distance himself from Karl’s coaching style), it now in retrospect seems nearly inevitable that he would eventually yeild to fielding dual point guard lineups given that three of his top eight players (at least by RMC’s estimation in our #NuggetsRank feature last year) were crammed into that single position on the depth chart.

Of course, other factors in addition to generally predictable talent and usually unpredictable injuries influence the distribution of minutes. The mere whims of coaches, pressure from management to develop young or highly paid players, rewards and punishments for attitudes and behaviors, an abundance of garbage time, all of these things can, and usually do, factor in.

But for our purpose here – which is an attempt to make a reasonable, sound forecast of how the minutes are most likely to shake out this season, I’ll be operating on an assumption of normalcy. It’s an idyllic, Platonic representation of what to expect from the 2014-15 Nuggets, and it will certainly be different from what actually happens. But if nothing too outlandish goes down – if the team stays relatively healthy, if there aren’t any surprising rookie breakouts that shake up the rotations, if no major trades are made – then hopefully this will be a reasonably accurate general outline of how the minutes will be doled out.

In accordance with this approach, I’m projecting for a fully healthy roster. With the number of players returning from injury, the extents of those injuries, and the lingering questions about whether some of them will in fact be ready to go for training camp, it should be expected that the minutes projections below – if they turn out to be accurate at all – will likely be much closer to the post-All-Star break distribution than what we’ll see in November or December, as injured players get eased in to their full work load with varying degrees of quickness and success in recovery.

Minutes distribution over the past two seasons

In order to look forward, let’s first look back at how the minutes have been doled out over the past two seasons. The chart below requires a bit of explanation. Firstly, I’ve limited the number of players to ten-man rotations, and I do this with the 2014-15 projections as well. Obviously, players not listed in the chart did play and will play. However, someone like Vesely last season would not normally crack the regular rotation if it weren’t for the injuries to J.J. Hickson and JaVale McGee, and it’s impossible to account for the unforeseeable. Additionally, even after limiting it to ten players, the average total minutes per game of the ten-player rotations for those two seasons comes out to about 255, well over the 240 total of a non-overtime NBA game, so limiting the number of players more closely approximates a realistic game-to-game minutes distribution.

You’ll also see that I tweaked some of the numbers and positions. For Hickson, Kenneth Faried and Timofey Mozgov I’ve used their 2013-14 post All-Star break minutes per game because, in my opinion at least, those are more accurately reflective of where the team was at at season’s end, and of the direction Brian Shaw seems to be taking it.

I also have Darrell Arthur in 2013-14 and Wilson Chandler in 2012-13 out of position. In Chandler’s case it’s really only a technical difference. Per 82games.com, he played 15 percent of the Nuggets’ minutes at the four, but only 11 percent at the three that year, so he did in fact put in more time as power forward than small forward. Putting Arthur at center last season on the chart rather than Hickson (even though J.J. spent more time there) was mainly done to more accurately reflect the fact that, with Mozgov as Denver’s only true center, power forwards (out of position or not) were getting significantly more minutes. I’m also operating under the assumption that the easily-winded and coming-off-injury McGee is unlikely to play much more thann 20 minutes per game (which I readily grant may well be wrong, but thus far he’s only averaged 18.5 with the Nuggets).

With all these caveats in mind, then, the picture from the last two seasons:

Considering the considerable player and coach changes from 2012-13 to 2013-14, the minutes distribution remained remarkably similar. Ty Lawson, and post All-Star break Faried were the only players to remain in the starting lineup from the previous season. But at the other three positions the starters’ minutes stayed practically identical. This goes back to talent in large part dictating the minutes, and my projections for the upcoming season are largely based on extending this trend. The starters played approximately 60 percent of the minutes to the bench players’ 40, and with the return of Arron Afflalo and Danilo Gallinari (assuming he returns to full health) the starters’ share should, if anything, increase.

This in turn will mean that players like Randy Foye, Wilson Chandler and Hickson, who played minutes beyond what should for them be a more natural bench amount, should most likely see a significant decrease in playing time, and those on the lower tiers may be left out in the cold.

Nuggets minutes projections for 2014-15:

It’s important to reiterate here that no, I do not expect Gallinari to be playing 30-plus minutes per game in November, or even December. As stated above, I’m modeling these projections on players having returned to full health and all (or at least most) things otherwise being normal. But if Lawson, Afflalo and Gallo are all at 100 percent in terms of health and conditioning, it seems nearly certain that all of them will be playing 30 or more minutes per game. Likewise, even if Hickson and Darrell Arthur make healthy returns, it’s hard to see Faried falling much below the 27-28 minute range. And I may have even gone too low with 23 for Mozzie, but Shaw seems reluctant to play him too much and, presumably, JaVale will be back, preventing him from getting much more burn than he did last season.

If all that holds true, then there will be precious few minutes to be allotted to the remaining players. Not only will players like Chandler, Foye and Hickson see fewer minutes, but Denver’s rookies, and quite possibly Arthur (though personally I’d prefer to see him go in before Hickson) and Quincy Miller, will probably get left on the outside looking in.

For Shaw to justify playing Gary Harris or Jusuf Nurkic ahead of Robinson or McGee, or even taking away a share of their minutes, it would require them to have superlative training camps and preseasons, and and make powerful cases for playing time in the (most likely infrequent) chances they get during the regular season. Erick Green may never seen the court outside garbage time barring injuries, and even Q-Mil may end up in the same boat with Gallo and Chandler far above him in the depth chart at the three. Of any player not listed in the above chart, Darrell Arthur may be the only one to have a genuine shot at cracking the rotation. But even he will have a tough go of it, and it won’t be suprising if any or all of the Nuggets rookies spend time in the D-League.

The best hope for all of the Nuggets bench players will be to impress Shaw early in the season, when players coming off injuries may be held to minutes or even game restrictions, opening up opportunities to make their mark. But if Denver’s roster returns to full health, don’t expect them to see much daylight unless they make a big enough impact to prove that they have too much talent to be ignored.