One of the loudest advocates for ports and coastal investment in the U.S. Senate, Appropriations Committee Chairman Thad Cochran of Mississippi, announced his plan to retire effective April 1, 2018. His departure due to health conditions, almost three years before his term would normally end, puts the GOP in the position of defending yet another seat in a potentially Democratic wave year.

And there are murmurs that could grow into rumblings, that this race could elect the first ever African-American Democratic U.S. Senator from the Deep South.

Normally, “Deep Red” Mississippi would present few roadblocks to continued Republican Senatorial dominance. However, as the apparent victory of Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania’s 18th District demonstrated a week ago, the right Democrat who can appeal to rural voters can win seats that Donald Trump carried by 20 points. In fact, the national media has completely ignored a curious set of conditions which might send another rural Democrat possessed of moderate social views — Mike Espy—back to Washington come November.

Hailing from the waterlogged “Birth Place of the Blues”, the Mississippi Delta, former Congressman and Clinton-era U.S. Agriculture Secretary opted almost immediately “to declare my strong intention” to run for Cochran’s seat.

He is the offspring of a legendary political family in “the Delta,” one of the only rural, agricultural regions of the nation comprised of a supermajority electorate of African Americans. Thanks to his long-time focus on rural issues, Espy is the one Democrat—regardless of skin-color—who could build a bipartisan coalition to emerge victorious in this very Trump state, at least if Chris McDaniel, a hated figure by Mississippi establishment Republicans, is his opponent.

Call it a re-run of the Alabama election with a Pennsylvania Twist. Black voters in the waterlogged Delta joining with suburban whites in Jackson and on the coast to provide victory over a Republican too Right-wing for moderate GOP voters. It would be a strange, but interesting result in a state with such a troubled racial history.

As a former Mississippi Governor once observed, “No state has come so far in race relations as Mississippi, but no state had further to go.”

Espy has pulled off such a victory before, becoming the first Black Congressman from Mississippi in 100 years. A lifelong Baptist campaigning in a religious area, Espy adopted the slogan in his 1986, “Stand by Me, Pray for Me, Vote for Me.”

Espy very effectively crossed the deep racial divide to court white voters, as well. Describing the balancing act required by his strategy, Espy said, “You must excite your Black voters and not incite your White voters.” He promised to combat the agricultural depression that plagued his Caucasian constituents (widely known as “planters” in local circles), touting a letter from then-House Speaker Jim Wright of Texas promising him a seat on the powerful Agriculture Committee.

Espy’s strategy succeeded. He claimed 12 percent of the Caucasian turnout, while many other white voters stayed home in a show of de facto support. Espy defeated Republican Incumbent Webb Franklin’s 52 to 48 percent, winning his first elective office and becoming the only Black Representative in the 100th Congress (1987–1989) to represent a rural district.

The advantage that the former African-American Congressman and Cabinet Secretary enjoys rest sin the political dimensions of the Mississippi Delta itself. For those interested in levees and coastal issues, the idea that a region existing due to the vagaries of water management hundreds of miles from an Ocean, Gulf, or Great Lake might seem strange.

Still, the Delta’s hundreds of square miles remain one of the most fertile agricultural regions in the United States. It’s not surprising no place in the South re-created the plantation economy as completely as the Delta after the Civil War, spawning an African-American majority electorate today of over 72 percent, and making Mississippi the “Blackest state” in the nation at 37 percent, with its largest number of African-American elected officials.

When sharecropping gave way to tractors, no place grew poorer than the Delta as well. The nexus of the “Great Migration” of the early Twentieth Century, the music that emerged from segregated ‘juke joints’ throughout its lands would create not only the Blues, but would jump the racial barrier to rock and roll. Even today, driving from Clarksdale to Indianola to Yazoo City, one feels the beat of the land.

And, one learns quickly that the Delta is loyal to its own. Few encompass the political aspirations more than the Espy family. The former Congressman turned Clinton Cabinet member comes from the first family of Clarksdale politics. The Espys dominated the Mayor’s office and local politics while Mike was in Washington. Their influence remains even today, and they are known for their ability to turnout voters when other Black politicians cannot.

Part of this was helped by Espy himself. Both as a Congressman and Ag Secretary, he championed federal grants for “Catfish Farming,” the growth industry in the Delta, and is still honored by White landowners because of it. So much so that his popularity suffered little in either the Delta or Mississippi despite the ethics questions that drove him from office.

Resigning as Ag Secretary on December 31, 1994, amidst indictment on federal bribery and fraud charges, Espy was later acquitted. He came home and remained prominent in Mississippi politics, practicing law in Jackson, and staying close to the statewide Democratic leaders, such as current Attorney General Jim Hood. Over the intervening decades, Espy positioned himself for just the right race.

Nevertheless, Espy’s election would normally prove impossible save for the unique rules under which Mississippi special elections operate, and the fact that the special election will occur simultaneous to the federal mid-terms in November, offering a unique opportunity for higher Black turnout. Special election rules in Mississippi will make the contest nonpartisan — foregoing primaries in favor of a November free-for-all in which candidates’ party affiliation will not appear on the ballot. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two will compete in a runoff election.

Mississippi Republican Governor Phil Bryant is sure to appoint a mainstream Republican choice to the seat by April 1st. Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, Mississippi House Speaker Philip Gunn, Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, and Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith are viable options and each may be willing to stage a special election bid. Yet the wildcard remains State Senator Chris McDaniel.

The Tea Party favorite almost unseated Thad Cochran in the GOP Primary in 2014, with the Republican incumbent only saved by support by African-American ministers getting their congregants to register Republican and vote for Cochran over McDaniel. “Remember 2014” has become McDaniel’s clarion call, losing only 49 – 51 percent.

On last Wednesday, McDaniel opted to drop his primary bid against Mississippi’s other sitting GOP Senator Roger Wicker and run in the open primary to succeed Cochran with the words, “By announcing early, we are asking Mississippi Republicans to unite around my candidacy and avoid another contentious contest among GOP members that would only improve the Democrats’ chances of winning the open seat.”

In Special Election’s nonpartisan setup, every candidate runs together. As the Clarion Herald newspaper noted, “[That] has the potential to help Democrats, because Mississippi is two things: Very Republican and very inelastic, meaning it has very few persuadable voters and doesn’t swing much from one election to the next. Most voters in Mississippi reliably vote for either Republicans or Democrats. Under normal circumstances, that makes it extremely difficult for any Democrat to claw his or her way to 50 percent of the vote, but in a campaign without party labels (or at least where they aren’t front and center), the lead weight that is a ‘D’ next to one’s name is partially lifted.”

A faceoff between Espy and McDaniel would have parallels to the recent Alabama Special election, but with a difference. While Washington Republicans note that McDaniel would not have Roy Moore’s teenage sex scandals, often unremarked is that Mississippi is a far less “Red” state than Alabama. Trump might have won the Camellia State by 28 points, but he won the Magnolia State by just 18 points. Mitt Romney won Mississippi by only 12.

Suddenly, the comparisons to the Pennsylvania Congressional special election become more acute — except, of course, that Mike Espy is Black, and Democrats have not won a Senate Seat in Mississippi since 1982. In a wave election, though, facing McDaniel with his long history of controversial statements, Espy might have a chance.

McDaniel has blamed hip-hop for gun violence, said movies should have more Muslim villains, spoken before pro-Confederate organizations, and dismissed Women’s Marchers as “unhappy liberal women.”

The last time a pollster asked Mississippi voters to choose between McDaniel and a Democrat, the Democrat wasn’t too far behind. It’s not so impossible to imagine.

This article originally published in the March 19, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

Despite little being written or said about it, perhaps the biggest elephant in the House and Senate chambers at the Louisiana State Capitol during the recent special session may have been the largely underestimated Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus and not the pachyderms hailing from the Party of Lincoln.

As the state’s Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, and his allies slugged it out with GOP lawmakers during the recent special session, many may not have noticed the critical role the LLBC has played and will continue to play as legislators seek to fill a gaping budget hole.

Nola.com/The Times-Picayune reported that both tax bills introduced during the special session failed in the House, essentially because Black Caucus members refused to vote for them.

State Sen. J.P. Morrell, a member of the Black Caucus, told WBOK radio recently that the LLBC has grown weary of Gov. Edwards’ efforts to get them to “go along to get along” with their colleagues on the other side of the political aisle.

“It’s clear from the last session that you are not going to be able to move significant revenue in any form without support from the Black Caucus,” state Rep. Gary Carter, D-New Orleans, a member of the LLBC, told Nola.com recently. “I don’t believe the Black Caucus has seen that level of leverage in a very long time.”

Although the GOP controls both the House and the Senate, Republicans don’t have the super-majority needed to force through tax bills on a particular vote.

About one-third of the House’s 60 Republican lawmakers won’t vote in support of any tax bill, which means that any GOP-sponsored bills must find another 30 votes from the three Independents and 41 Democrats in the chamber.

Standing smack dab between the GOP and the passage of its legislation is the 25 — member Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus, which is comprised entirely of Democratic lawmakers.

The LLBC has been saying for months that it would not support a sales tax increase, which places an unfair burden on Louisiana’s poor and working-class residents. Instead, its members recommended balancing the budget with income taxes or business levies.

LLBC members stuck to their guns and refused to support GOP sales tax legislation, demanding at one point that a vote on income-tax adjustment take place before a vote on the sales tax because they didn’t trust GOP lawmakers to stick to their word and bring a vote on the income tax adjustment once the sales tax bill successfully passed in the House.

“I don’t think that the House leadership took our position seriously,” LLBC member and state Rep. Ted James, D-Baton Rouge, told Nola.com. “I think that they were just relying on the thought that as the time ran out, that we would just support the sales tax piece and not continue to push on a balanced approach.”

The House leadership’s lack of respect for the LLBC’s stated priorities may have resulted from previous instances in which the Black Caucus has voted in support of legislation which it had initially opposed, like the temporary sales tax it voted for in 2016 that expires in June.

“In the past, we probably have been the more pliable caucus,” state Sen. Troy Carter, D-New Orleans, who heads the Senate Democratic Caucus, told Nola.com.

Nola.com reported that Gov. Edwards had promised GOP lawmakers that he could deliver Black Caucus votes on tax bills, something he was clearly not able to do. Edwards also supported work requirements for Medicaid recipients, something the LLBC vehemently opposes.

In the end, Gov. Edwards tried unsuccessfully to persuade Black Caucus members to support the Democrat-sponsored income tax reduction bill that Republicans had added Medicaid work requirements to. Not a single one of the four Black Caucus members who had withheld their support because of the changes made to the bill by GOP lawmakers would budge on the note.

“I think assumptions and promises were made without adequately discussing matters with the caucus,” he added. “They should ask us what we want. They should listen to what we want and not hear from someone else (about) our list of demands.”

At the start of the regular legislative session last Monday, Gov. Edwards spelled out his goals for the regular session and another special session to address the fiscal cliff that endangers funding for TOPS scholarships, health care and higher education, among other programs.

“Our constituents want us to do better,” Edwards told lawmakers. “That is why we should have fixed the fiscal cliff when I gave you the opportunity a couple of weeks ago. However, many of you have suggested that the fiscal cliff can be fixed simply by making cuts. I think what many of you will find is that it’s much harder than it seems because when you cut funding you cut services that many people in this state rely upon. But if that’s what you truly believe now is your opportunity.”

“From what I see, I don’t see a lot of flexibility for it to cut that much, and I’m concerned that what is above and beyond the bare necessities is not things that we generally will want to cut but where Appropriations and Senate Finance can find that room to reduce costs and find efficiencies. I am excited that they will find it,” Rep. Julie Stokes, R-Kenner, told FOX 8 News.

“I think anybody who thinks that we can cut $700 million out the budget and still function as a government isn’t being very realistic. I think it’s going to take a combination of cuts and revenue measures to get there, we can’t cripple the state, we can’t continue to cut health and hospitals and higher education, nor can afford to tax our working class people to death, either,” said Sen. Troy Carter.

“I think he’s laid out some serious problems we have in this state, number one being the budget that we need to address. We need to come to some agreement as to what the funding should be for this state and figure out a way to pay for it,” said Sen. President John Alario, R-Westwego.

“I hope that folks went home for the last seven days and got to get some feedback from their constituents. What I got back was that people were totally frustrated that we weren’t able to come here as a body and put people first, and that politics were driving many of the decisions,” Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, D-New Orleans.

“There’s nothing different or wrong about us not coming to an agreement last time. It’s a process, it doesn’t end until June. We should never have had the pre-special session in the first place. It was a mistake. Now we can do it properly, we can get the Revenue Estimating Conference meeting down, find out how much money we have to really raise and then determine how much we really want to spend,” Sen. Conrad Appel, R-Metairie.

Edwards said higher education, including the popular TOPS scholarship and state-funded health care, would be the most vulnerable to deep cuts without new revenues. And he scolded lawmakers for ending a special session a week ago without resolving the looming budget crisis.

“Very soon we’re going to have another opportunity, our last opportunity to fix the fiscal cliff as we should have done in the special session. If the recent warning sign from one of our credit rating agencies is not enough to urge us to act, perhaps this story will be. I just heard of a young man that’s heading off to college next fall from Dutchtown, he had a 33 on the ACT, he’s an eagle scout, a model student right here in our state. After the last special session unfortunately, he is leaning towards going to Alabama rather than LSU because of the uncertainty of this TOPS scholarship,” the governor told lawmakers.

Some lawmakers applaud the governor for wanting to help small businesses, others said his proposal does not go far enough.

“I’m particularly excited about fighting for the small business council that he talked about creating. I’ll be working on that legislation, trying to find ways to enhance the opportunities for businesses, creating jobs, making money, and drive the state’s economy in a different direction,” said House Speaker Pro-Tempore Rep. Walt Leger, D-New Orleans.

“That was a tiny little step. I think it’s a good talking point, but helping small business is extraordinarily important but that means tort reform, it means new infrastructure, it means reform of education systems, it doesn’t mean a minor little tweak to not regulating florists,” said Sen. Appel.

And many wonder if the legislature will embrace equal pay for women this year. Edwards has pushed for that and a higher minimum wage before but failed.

“They keep saying that it’s bad for business.,” state Rep. Helena Moreno, D-New Orleans, said last week. “If you take a look at all these different studies, it’s actually good for business to promote paying men and women equally. Maybe this is the year, I’m certainly going to be fighting for it.”

This article originally published in the March 19, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

The key moment of the failed legislative special session was Friday afternoon, March 2nd, when New Orleans Democratic Rep. Walt Leger came up short in his attempt to limit itemized deductions—and produce an additional $79 million in revenues. His measure narrowly lost, 50-51. He needed just 53 votes, a bare majority vote, but a victory which was also key to convincing members of the Legislative Black Caucus to reverse their opposition to a temporary sales tax renewal.

On the previous Wednesday, the State House had 38-67 to rejected Rep. Stephen Dwight’s proposal to set the state sales taxes at 4.25 percent, amidst almost universal Black Caucus opposition. The proposal would have increased taxes a quarter penny but down from 5 percent currently scheduled to expire July 1. The Lake Charles Republican needed 70 votes to pass, but was steadfastly opposed by the Caucus, as well as 27 members of his own party—who swore to oppose any tax increases.

REP. LEGER

Unlike the Tea Party members of the GOP, most members of the Legislative Black Caucus were willing to reverse course on the sales tax measure, if Leger could move a corresponding limitation on itemized deductions. Passage seemed a comparatively easier task, requiring him constitutionally to convince a simple majority of his colleagues instead of the usual 2/3 majority to raise taxes. After Friday’s vote, Leger desperately sought either two more fiscally conservative Republicans or Democrats to fill the gap. However, both GOP taxophobia and concern from some Black Caucus members over a “gutting of Medicaid” killed any chance of Leger’s reaching 53.

By Sunday night, it was obvious that the Leger had actually lost more ground on the Right, amidst heavy lobbying by anti-tax groups like the “Club for Growth”. Grover Norquist, promoter of the infamous “no new taxes, ever” pledge, tweeted, “Louisiana taxpayers are counting on the legislature to protect them from money-hungry John Bel Edwards.” State director of the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity, John Kay, tweeted out “I wouldn’t vote for income tax changes if I were y’all, #lalege.” When Leger’s income tax measure was reconsidered, the final House vote was 49-49.

Perhaps, both the House Democratic Speaker Pro Tem and his allies in the Edwards Administration expected too much of conservatives. Regardless of the outside-libertarian lobbying, most of Leger’s fellow legislators had won the 2007 election specifically promising to repeal the Stelly plan. The Foster-era tax reform’s limitation of itemized deductions was hated by self-employed middle class voters, who saw proportionally higher income tax hikes than their income might have warranted. Nevertheless, without these conservative legislators falling on their sword, members of the Legislative Black Caucus generally refused to correspondingly back a sales tax renewal, forcing an adjournment of the special session two days early.

It was not just Republicans with an antipathy to any form of return to the Stelly plan. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Democrat Neil Abramson represents a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Uptown New Orleans district. Like his constituents, his own philosophical stands on taxation tend more to reflect his university area-electorate, Still, Stelly was hated, even by the nominal “limousine liberals” of Uptown, so much that Abramson was a no vote.

As Abramson said just prior to casting his ballot, “Ahead of today’s votes, I wanted to shed some light on the Stelly tax plan. Be wary of the sound bites that will be flying around about a return to the Stelly tax plan, which would be deeply harmful to my constituents and others. These changes were proposed in 2016, and the non partisan Legislative Fiscal Office crunched the numbers based on actual income tax data from the Louisiana Department of Revenue. Families who made $40,000 would see a 30 percent increase in the their income taxes. Families earning over $1 million would see a 12 percent increase. The middle and lower middle classes would see 300 times more in income taxes than higher income families. Two years later, here we are again.”

The Uptown Democrat also aimed his fire at Gov. John Bel Edwards’ proposal, that in addition to Leger bill, would lower the threshold of state income tax rates. “A return to the Stelly plan would mean ‘Compressing the brackets,’ which means that the state income tax rates of 2, 4 and 6 percent would kick in earlier at income levels of $12,500, $25,000, and $50,000 rather than at the current income levels of $25,000, $50,000, and $100,000. Lowering Louisianians’ ability to apply federal deductions (including mortgages, charitable contributions, etc) would mean that families who currently deduct 100 percent would lose at least 50 percent of the deductions and pay much more in taxes.”

It was not that Abramson was against all taxes. He joined the GOP leadership, if not the rank and file, to extend some of the sales taxes. “I do believe we need to address the immediate budget crisis so I agreed to a compromise proposal that would continue — for 3 years only — a small portion of the temporary new penny tax and some of the sales tax exemptions—both of which expire on July 1 to get us through this crisis,” he continued. “I also believe a limited state Constitutional Convention must be held over the next two years because we simply must reform the system that puts the things that Louisianans value, such as education and our medical system — at such a disadvantage — and I will be pursuing that again in the upcoming regular session.”

That was a long-term solution though that did little to erase this year’s deficit. The Trump tax cuts had the unexpected impact on Louisiana and six other states that allow taxpayers to file federal deductions on their state returns. It increased revenues by $301 million this year. The deficit is $994 million. And the special session alone cost $900,000.

Defending his bill on the floor, Leger said, to explain his bill, “If you itemize deductions, this bill will no longer allow you to deduct this year the state and local taxes you paid last year… Federal law doesn’t allow you to deduct federal taxes paid. Why should the state allow it?” Leger went on to remind House members this was a structural tax reform recommended by every one of the task forces the legislature had set up to look into Louisiana’s tax structure.

Leger’s legislation might have been able to pick up a couple of more Democratic votes if he managed to unchain his bill from two of the Republican-pushed budget reforms that have been linked to his bill, HB 8, without his approval. These would have required Medicaid recipients to confirm their income via past tax returns, and put work requirements on Medicaid.

“Remove HB 2 and HB 3. Leave the rest,” Leger said. “Don’t force members who have expressed their will on those two bills to say no again. Those bills have already gone over to the Senate, but I’m afraid it will grind this whole process to a halt if we don’t remove these two.”

Shreveport Republican Rep. Alan Seabaugh, the author of the amendment shackling Leger’s bill to HB2 and HB3, led the opposition to “de-linking,” and triumphed 47-52. Still, Leger’s warning proved prophetic. Ultimately on that Friday afternoon, four Black Caucus members in the House voted against Leger’s income tax deduction legislation because of the Medicaid restrictions, and additional pressure from the governor could not change their minds.

Alan Seabaugh cast one of the votes to kill Leger’s bill, interestingly ending the chances of the Senate passing his Medicaid reforms. “This isn’t the time to do this,” he insisted on the floor, calling for opposition to the legislation he successfully amended. “We don’t know the numbers on the federal tax reforms yet. Once we have those, and new revenue estimates, then we might not even need any additional revenue.”

“What we do know — everybody knows — is that the $994 million is not an accurate number. The governor got up here and told a bald-faced lie!” Seabaugh thundered. “You’re asking us to stick it to our constituents! It’s bad policy, and it’s bad re-election strategy!”

He also voted against the sales tax renewal as well, which the State House Republican leadership supported as a means to protect the TOPS program. Leger replied to Seabaugh, as HB8 went to a vote. “We work very hard from this well not to call people names, act with dignity and respect. I have to say, Gov. Edwards is not a liar… We each came here to positively impact people’s lives. This is one of those moments. Let’s solve the problems before us to the extent that we can.”

That swayed some Black Caucus members, though, not all. Baton Rouge Democrat Ted James told the House, “I support the bill. I despise the amendment. I despise the spirit of the amendment. That amendment is hateful. But it’s not enough for me to ignore the needs of the people of my district, or the needs of the people of this great state.”

That was not enough for his fellow Black Caucus member from Baton Rouge, Rep. Denise Marcelle, “I oppose this bill because of the amendment. The person who put the amendment on the bill put it there to kill the bill,” she declared all but pointing at Seabaugh.

And, some of his fellow Republicans were nearly as critical of their Shreveport colleague. GOP members Barry Ivey of Central, Bob Shadoin of Ruston, and Steve Carter of Baton Rouge pleaded with the House to pass Leger’s legislation. Perhaps the most articulate was recent breast cancer survivor Kenner Republican Julie Stokes who begged, “I’ve never seen us at a bigger crossroads. This is it – this minute. Let’s come together and heal this.”

The Governor worked both the GOP and Democratic caucuses to no avail.

The Regular Session starts March 12, 2018. Since passage of new taxes is constitutionally prohibited, the only remaining opportunity to enact new revenues is a brief window of days after its conclusion, and any budget for the coming fiscal year must be passed not knowing if there will be money to fill the gap.

This article originally published in the March 12, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

*Correction: It was Rep. Steve Carter of Baton Rouge who pleaded for the passage of HB 8, and not Rep. Gary Carter of New Orleans, as it was previously written in this story.

It’s neck and neck between Joe Lopinto and John Fortunato for Jefferson Parish Sheriff—at least that was the conclusion of many of the veteran former cops assembled at the Crimefighters meeting at Augie’s Restaurant in Harahan on Saturday, February 24.

Not surprising for a “Victim’s Rights Organization,” the Crimefighters’ Executive Board is mainly comprised of mostly retired NOPD and JPSO senior commanders as well as regional Police Chiefs and four past Presidents of PANO. To say that the Crimefighters leadership watches the pulse of the Jeff Sheriff’s electorate constitutes an understatement, and the assembled generally concluded that Sheriff Joseph Lopinto’s massive ad campaign and outreach efforts had tightened up the race between him and the former Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s Office Public Information Officer Col. John Fortunato.

“Both have support within the JPSO,” explained former NOPD and Harahan Chief Peter Dale, a member for the Crimefighters Board and himself a past JP Sheriff contender. The 1500-member Sheriff’s Department is as divided as the public, according to Dale’s fellow insiders on the board, reflecting the factional battle that the race has become between supporters of Newell Normand and Harry Lee on Lopinto’s side and those backers of Jeff President Mike Yenni in Fortunato’s corner.

In part, the race may have tightened since late last year, when a UNO poll showed a massive advantage for Fortunato. Lopinto has countered the 67-year-old’s former PIO’s better name recognition and campaign on the theme of “experience” with a Public Relations outreach demonstrating the Sheriff’s biography—a former JPSO Deputy-turned-Narcotics Detective who attended Loyola Law School at night. Upon winning election to the State House of Representatives from Metairie in 2007, Lopinto went on to chair the Criminal Justice Committee, developing a reputation nationally as one of the leading experts in criminal legal procedure. So much so that his private legal practice he became a must “go to” lawyer for police departments around the nation.

His seasoning in the aspects of “police law” led Newell Normand to call Lopinto back to the JPSO to become its in-house counsel, and to step in as Chief Deputy when Craig Taffaro’s off-duty gambling addiction ran afoul of the IRS—and led to a jail sentence for Normand’s longtime #2—as Lopinto’s legal expertise seemed to be the curative in the subsequent and unexpected resulting administrative crisis. Normand needed a respected legal expert in the job to remove any questions of impropriety. Lopinto was available.

As a result, Lopinto explained to The Louisiana Weekly, that his subsequent ascension to Sheriff was unplanned, refuting the rumors of a long-held succession plan. He just happened to be in the right job at the time. Noting that Normand had only a few days to accept the talk-show hosting job at WWL radio, he left earlier than anyone—including his replacement—ever expected.

Ultimately, Lopinto had less than 48 hours warning that the Sheriff planed to resign. As state law mandates that a chief deputy becomes the sheriff upon resignation or death of his boss, he was thrust into the leadership of the JPSO. Nevertheless, the former legislator—who won election to the State House by beating Harry Lee’s nephew—gladly became the legendary sheriff’s chosen successor’s successor.

Still, the physical difference between the 41-year-old interim sheriff and his 67-year-old challenger tends to bolster Fortunato’s case of experience. The white-haired silver mane of the former PIO as well as his years before the TV cameras (and the passenger seat next to Steven Seagal in the reality show) made Fortunato a familiar presence to most of the Jefferson Parish electorate in a way that Lopinto had trouble matching.

At the commencement of the contest, a “robo-call” survey conducted by the University of New Orleans of 426 respondents revealed that 44 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Fortunato to just under 19 percent firmly committed for Lopinto. Still, not only did a massive 37 percent say they “were not yet sure,” but the poll only made calls to people with landlines, likely under surveying Lopinto’s support with younger voters.

The poll’s author, Tony Licciardi, a research assistant at UNO’s Survey Research Center, summed up the findings by noting that Fortunato enjoys a lot of familiarity as the longtime face and voice of the department. Most critically, though, the survey showed Fortunato’s support to be stronger on the West Bank. The blue-collar, older electorate on that side of the river forms his base, yet also presents Fortunato with a problem.

Excepting sheriff, all of the competitive elections on March 24, 2018 occur on the East Bank of Jefferson Parish. Primarily, the special election to fill the Constable position for 5th Justice Court between Allen Leone Jr. and Jack Rizzuto constitutes the entirety of Lopinto’s Central Metairie former legislative district, where the interim Sheriff is understandably most popular.

Moreover, while both Lopinto and Fortunato can expect support from Kenner voters turning-out for the Mayoral and Councilmanic elections, Harry Lee’s legacy remains particularly popular in Louisiana’s sixth-largest city, as is the support of Lopinto by his daughter, Parish Councilwoman Cynthia Lee-Sheng. In an added benefit, new Parish Councilman Dominick Impastato—who recently defeated Normand ally-Sen. Danny Martiny in a mostly Kenner district—has decided to stay out of the sheriff’s race. Impastato is an old friend of Lopinto’s, despite his affiliation on the other side of Jeff politics.

Nevertheless, Fortunato does have the support of Kenner Mayor Ben Zahn who is expected to coast to victory, so any margin for the interim Sheriff in Kenner should be narrow, if it occurs at all. Many in Kenner point to a tie, unless the Black vote coming out in the majority-minority Democratic District 1 Council race overtly opts for one Republican of the candidates over the other.

Even parishwide, this is true. Both candidates for Sheriff are registered Republicans, so it also remains unclear if Jefferson’s African-American vote, 26 percent of the parish, will opt for a particular contender. The interim Jefferson Parish Sheriff and former Sheriff’s Office Commander and PIO have made inclusive appeals towards the Black electorate. In recent history, more than a few voters in this very Democratic constituency do have a tendency to skip all-GOP races on the local ballot. Still, with no Democrat in the contest, even a small turnout majority of African-American voters anywhere in Jefferson for one of the two leading Republicans could decide the Jefferson Sheriff’s election.

Therefore, with low turnout on the West Bank generally favoring Fortunato, with Metairie opting for Lopinto in slightly higher numbers, and a tightening race in the Kenner, high voter enthusiasm in tiny City of Harahan could make all the difference. And, former Mayor Vinny Mosca estimates a milliage on the ballot could bring out 40 percent of the town’s electorate, giving them a disproportionate impact on the otherwise moderate parish turnout.

On March 24 , the Harahan electorate will be asked next month to approve a controversial new 3-mill property tax to fund maintenance and repairs of the city’s aging sewerage system. The problem is that the new 3 mills would not only come with a corresponding rate increase, but would also cost a property owner $30 a year for each $100,000 of the value of a home or business—outside of the homestead exemption.

As a local tax, the homestead exemption does not apply to the calculation, which—along with anxiety about flooding from Harahan’s aging piping system—should drive turnout of both those ideologically opposed to a new tax in the historically taxophobic town as well as those worried about flooding and in support.

This is where it gets complicated. The political establishment in Harahan has evenly divided between the two candidates, and signs for both men dominate Jefferson Highway. Mayor Tina Miceli supports Fortunato, but Mosca pointed to a private poll commissioned by five local businessmen that shows the incumbent Mayor’s approval rating at 30 percent, leading Mosca to wonder to The Louisiana Weekly if Miceli’s support is a drag on Fortunato as much as a help.

As for Crimefighters, most of the Executive Board opted to endorse Fortunato—in part due Lopinto’s absence from their endorsement forum thanks to an officer-involved shooting forcing the Sheriff to drive to a crime-scene at the last minute on that Saturday night. However, Lopinto has won the lionshare of the other endorsements, including the Alliance for Good Government and the Political Action Committee for the Jefferson Chamber of Commerce.

This article originally published in the March 5, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

A seeming agreement seems to be coming together in the legislature to fix the $1.1 billion “fiscal cliff,” strangely enough due to Trump tax cuts and a controversial plan to charge a co-pay for Medicaid services.

The coming expiration of the temporary one penny in state sales taxes on June 30 has opened a giant potential hole in the budget, leading Gov. John Bel Edwards to propose a cutting $660 million from health programs (triggering much deeper shortfalls due to lost federal matching funds), slashing $233 million of the current $291 million allotment for TOPS, hatching 50 percent from the Go Grants (which provide need-based aid to college students), slicing five percent across-the-board from the Department of Culture, Recreation and Tourism, as well as instituting significant reductions to public colleges, hospitals, community health centers and the closure of five regional offices and removal of 114 field office positions that handle community-based supervision in the Office of Juvenile Justice — with potential devastating impacts on recidivism rates.

Gov. Edwards described his own budget as “honest” but “ugly,” only hoping that the legislature finds enough extra money to make sure it is “dead on arrival.” Since 2018 is a constitutional regular session year (where tax increases cannot considered), any tax changes would have to occur in a special session just after Mardi Gras, in order for the legislature to meet their constitutionally-required balanced budget without massive cuts.

It appears that almost $200 million of the projected hole might be filled thanks to an unexpected side effect of the Trump Tax Cuts. Louisiana is just one of six states which allow federal deductions to be utilized on state tax returns. Ironically, thanks to Congress’ decision to limit state-and-local deductions as part of the package last December, as well as other tax changes used to help lower overall federal rates, Louisiana’s state income taxes receipts could surge. The effect proved similar the legislature limiting deductions on state taxes, but without the politically toxic fight that might have occurred from members still reeling from the repeal of the unpopular Stelly Plan.

Call it Stelly-like, limiting income tax deductions (as John Bel Edwards himself once proposed) without having to engage in a legislative fight—thanks to the GOP Congress and Donald Trump. Still, this fiscal serendipity only plugs a fifth of the hole. To produce another $172 million, Rep. Jack McFarland (R-Jonesboro) and other legislators have proposed a Medicaid co-pay. Already implemented in seventeen states, the measure would require that an insured individual pay for a part of medical costs, typically about $8 dollars per visit.

Federal law does prevent hospitals and physicians from refusing service if the patient refuses to pay, meaning the final sum could be lower. Moreover, significant opposition comes from members of the Legislative Black Caucus, who worry that even the possibility of a co-pay could hinder low-income recipients from receiving necessary medical attention.

They have a point, since part of the savings in the model results from an expectation of fewer doctor visits to reimburse, despite the modest amount of the co-pay. Revenue Estimators also expected that the Governor’s endorsement of a work-requirement for Medicaid recipients would provide fiscal some savings as well, through, Edwards’ plan exempts pregnant women, mothers with young children, people with disabilities, the elderly, and students. Ten other states have petitioned the Trump Administration for wavers to institute work requirements for Medicaid (with exemptions), with Virginia poised to join them this spring, and the President has indicated his Administration’s likely consent to their requests.

Matched with a series of proposed departmental fee hikes and service charges, roughly half of the fiscal cliff would be filled under these proposals. Increased tax revenue would still be needed. The fact remains that the temporary one penny in sales taxes (along with the removal of the other sales tax exemptions just under two years ago) continues to draw loud opposition on both the Right and the Left. Tea Party Republicans have joined with Black Caucus members in an unusual coalition to decry the tax hike’s impact on the poor.

However, a sales tax seems to be the only revenue raising measure capable of garnering the constitutionally mandated two thirds majority in the State House. Prior to the extra revenues outlined above, the Black Caucus pledged their opposition to renewing the full penny, which has propelled the impoverished Pelican State to levying the highest state sales tax rate in the nation.

Cutting that penny in half, or exempting food from it, might go a long way to calming nerves amongst anxious House and Senate progressives. Nevertheless, opposition on the Right remains, though cuts to the TOPS program are an anathema to conservatives.

According to the highest-ranking Tea Partyer in State Government, Treasurer John M. Schroder, “To this date, the majority of the budget conversation has focused on raising revenue. At a time when our economy struggles, and businesses and families are dealing with shortfalls, how can we consider raising taxes and expanding government? The rate of growth by government should never outpace the private sector. This is how you fix the budget problem. Grow the economy. More jobs equals more taxes paid.”

Nevertheless, Schroder, a former state legislator, and his allies in the House have proposed few concrete measures to plug the budget without taxes. Treasurer’s call for greater budgetary “transparency” saves few dollars this year. Other than Schroder’s endorsement of Medicaid co-pays, the only substantive proposal he has put forward is to “collect unrecovered state debt, which the Office of Statewide Accounting Reporting and Policy estimates at roughly $1.1 billion.”

Such a plan, though, would take also years to realize any revenues, if the majority of the money owed could be recovered at all. His other reform, a “pro-growth tax code that is simple, efficient and nationally competitive,” better known as income tax cuts, would likely explode an even larger hole in the budget — in the short term, at least.

This article originally published in the February 5, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

(TriceEdneyWire.com) — U.S. Rep. John Conyers, a founding member of the powerful Congressional Black Caucus and the highest-ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, retired from the U. S. Congress this week, leaving behind a stellar civil rights career amid multiple allegations of sexual harassment.

Conyers, 88, under pressure from many of his colleagues and House leaders to resign, had initially stepped down from the House Judiciary Committee amidst the charges, but dropped the bombshell of his immediate retirement on the Detroit-based Mildred Gaddis radio show Tuesday.

“I am retiring today and I want everyone to know how much I appreciate the support and the incredible and undiminishing support I’ve received across the years from my supports, not only in my district but across the country as well.”

He added, “My legacy cannot be compromised or diminished in any way.

Conyers says he is supporting his son, John Conyers III to succeed him.”

Conyers, a lawyer, said in the interview that Congress should fully disclose the records of all of the $7 million that has been paid out by members of Congress in sexual harassment cases.

“I think there should be a complete disclosure in revealing to all of the citizens of the country what federal legislators are doing or not doing and any cost that may have incurred as a result of that. So, my answer to that is a strong unequivocal yes,” he told Mildred Gaddis.

Conyers continued to deny any wrongdoing.

“Whatever they are they are not accurate and they are not true. And they are something that I can’t explain where they came from,” Conyers said.

Conyers gave the interview while in a Detroit hospital. He had complained of light-headedness and chest pains last week.

Buzz Feed News revealed earlier this month that one unidentified staffer received a $27,000 settlement from Congress for wrongful dismissal from Conyers’ office in 2015. Melanie Sloan, a former Capitol Hill staffer for Conyers’ office, said during a television interview that on one occasion Conyers was dressed only in his undershorts and a shirt while working in his office.

Sloan admitted that Conyers did not approach her with sexual intentions. She also claimed Conyers yelled at her several times in the 1990s. In the charged atmosphere of Washington, D.C., yelling and temper flare ups are common. For example, the late U.S. Sen. John Heinz (R., Pennsylvania) angrily yanked his telephone out of the office wall so often that the telephone company refused to repair it.

The Washington Post named Maria Reddick, the congressman’s former scheduler, as the person who filed but later dropped a claim last February, accusing Conyers of inappropriate sexual advances. After Conyers had stepped down, 12 former staffers who are women claimed Conyers never behaved in a sexually inappropriate manner.

The 88-year-old Conyers was first elected to Congress in 1964. He represents Michigan’s 13th Congressional District. Previously, he represented Michigan’s 14th Congressional District. Known as the dean of the Congressional Black Caucus, Conyers is one of its 13 founding members, which was organized in 1971. The CBC has 49 members.

NorthStarNewsToday.com contributed to this story.

This article originally published in the December 11, 2017 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

(TriceEdneyWire.com) — U. S. Rep. Maxine Waters says she has made the impeachment of President Donald Trump her “number one priority” and that she will soon “unveil impeachment resolutions” for supporters to read and educate others.

“I’ve decided to put my career on the line to make the removal of this president my number one priority. To make the removal of this president my number one priority because he not only does not deserve to be president and he’s dangerous but he has undermined the whole democracy,” Waters told hundreds in the audience at the 90th Anniversary reception of the National Bankers Association (NBA). “I’m about to unveil impeachment resolutions so that you can read it and you can see it’s about collusion, it’s about obstruction of justice; it’s about violation of the emoluments clause. We are going to make sure everyone gets copies of it because I want you to talk about it. I want you to talk about it everywhere you are and explain it to other people so that people understand that yes it is possible.”

Waters made her remarks Oct. 5 just before receiving the NBA’s “Statesperson of the Year” award from NBA President Michael Grant. In various press interviews and speeches, Waters has repeatedly made clear her intent to lead impeachment proceedings against Trump. In her NBA speech she was explicit about her reasons. At the top of the list, “He’s colluded with Russians.”

Although, there has not yet been proof of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government, numerous Trump associates have been found to have been in touch with Russians during his presidential campaign against Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

MAXINE WATERS

A special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, have announced charges against three advisers to the Trump campaign.

Former Trump campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, has turned himself in to the F.B.I. and pleaded not guilty to a 12 count indictment that includes millions in laundered money. Manafort’s longtime advisor, Rick Gates, also a Trump campaign associate, has also been charged and has turned himself in while pleading not guilty.

A third Trump associate, George Papadopoulos, former foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign, has pled guilty to lying to the F.B.I. and has been cooperating with investigators, according to the FBI. Federal investigators believe Russians contacted Papadopoulos through intermediaries in order to offer “dirt” on Clinton through thousands of emails, according to widespread reports.

“It was about getting Trump elected and preventing Hillary Clinton from getting elected. And maybe when Mr. Mueller gets finished doing his job and connecting the dots, we’re going to see exactly what happened,” Waters told the bankers in anticipation of the charges.

But in her speech, which was punctuated with applause, Waters expressed belief that there’s sufficient reason for the impeachment of Trump even without any findings of collusion or Russian engagement.

She said the president has become a danger to Americans as he nods, winks and gives comforting messages to hatemongers. As examples, Waters pointed out that Trump messaged when White supremacists, Ku Klux Klan members, and white nationalists came to Charlottesville, Va., prepared to shoot people, during a rally in which one protestor, Heather Heyer, 32, was killed when intentionally hit by a car driven by a White supremacist.

“He said there are some good people over there too and he stood up for them. And so, we know who he is and we know what he’s doing,” Waters said.

Waters encouraged the bankers to “step outside the box” and to aggressively join her in speaking up on key democratic issues.

“Bankers, African Americans, leaders, business persons, you owe it to this country to give leadership. We can’t wait for somebody else to do it as if we don’t have any role in all of this,” she said. “It’s important for us to understand that we do have some power, we do have some influence and that we must organize that power and that influence. And we must speak out on the issues of this democracy.”

The NBA is made up of banks that have historically served in communities which are often redlined or denied for loans by major White-owned banks. Waters praised their records of standing with and for oppressed communities. “You have not only stayed the course, but you’ve remained in our communities and we all have a responsibility to help you grow and to be stronger and to get the impediments and the road blocks out of the way. We’re going to do that,” she said.

Waters, now the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, has attended NBA annual conferences for the past 10 years. She is a favorite as she pushes to “establish an agenda for minority and Black-owned banks and work with Democratic Caucus in trying to bring about equality in the financial services world.”

At the close of her speech, NBA President Michael Grant awarded Waters with what he described as “the highest honor a public official can receive in this country.” He said, the “‘Statesperson Award’ means they have transcended politics, that they have put their country and the greater good above their own careers and their own safety.”

Grant praised Waters for repeatedly standing for Black bankers and business, demanding a fair share. He added, “She not only fights for African Americans and for women and workers. She doesn’t care what color you are. Anybody who’s locked out or left out find their way to her. She has the largest Congressional District in the Country. It goes from Los Angeles to Boston and from Miami up to Detroit,” he said to enthusiastic applause.

”Everything that you fight for seems to be the good fight, the just fight, the fight for or the concern for the least of these,” Grant said. “She understands patriotism better than anybody I know in this country. She loves America, she loves democracy. She wants this country to be what the flag tells us it is – one nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.”

This article originally published in the November 20, 2017 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

A Democratic member of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity filed suit against the commission in federal court in Washington, D.C. on Thursday morning, alleging that its Republican leadership has intentionally excluded him from deliberations and violated federal transparency laws. The commission has been sued more times (eight, including the new filing) than it has officially convened for meetings (two times).

The suit, filed by Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap, accuses the commission of violating the Federal Advisory Commission Act, which, among other things, requires that advisory committees be bipartisan and sets transparency requirements for them. “Everything we are doing is absolutely perpendicular to that,” Dunlap charged in an interview. “We aren’t inviting the public to participate. We aren’t transparent. And we aren’t even working together at all. My real fear is that this commission will offer policy recommendations that have not been properly vetted by all of the commissioners.”

The complaint contends Dunlap “has been, and continues to be, blocked from receiving Commission documents necessary to carry out his responsibilities” despite repeated requests to be included. It asserts that Dunlap is moving forward with the lawsuit “reluctantly” in order to prevent the commission from “becoming exactly the kind of one-sided, partisan undertaking the Federal Advisory Committee Act was designed to prohibit.”

The commission shouldn’t be surprised by the suit, said Austin Evers, executive director of American Oversight, an advocacy group that is representing Dunlap in the suit. Dunlap has written to the commission multiple times, asking them to address his grievances. “We think the commission is on more than enough notice they are not living up to their obligations,” Evers said, adding that he hopes to avoid a protracted legal battle.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Kris Kobach, the commission’s co-chair and the Republican secretary of state for Kansas, called Dunlap’s lawsuit “baseless and paranoid.” The statement asserted that the commission’s work has been “stalled” by lawsuits, the arrest of a staff member on child pornography charges, and the death of one commissioner. “It is not at all surprising that Commission staff were very busy during this period,” the statement noted “Ironically, Dunlap’s lawsuit is only going to increase the workload faced by Commission staff and Department of Justice Attorneys.”

Kobach’s statement addressed just a small number of Dunlap’s allegations. For example, it asserted that it was “incorrect” that Kobach excluded Dunlap from communications “between September 12 and October 17”; the bulk of Dunlap’s complaints predate that period. For example, email records filed with a federal court by the Department of Justice show Kobach repeatedly discussed commission business in June with a handful of people without including other commissioners. Most notably, Kobach drafted a controversial letter to states requesting publicly available voter rolls with input from Hans von Spakovsky and J. Christian Adams, two Republicans who only joined the commission afterwards. Those discussions didn’t include other commissioners.

Dunlap asserted that the remainder of the commission was made aware of Kobach’s intent to send the letter only hours before states received copies. The suit claims this “deprived Secretary Dunlap of the opportunity to consult with other members of the Commission or to formulate and express his views as to the legality or propriety of this action.”

Dunlap asked Andrew Kossack, the executive director of the commission, for copies of this and other correspondence in a letter on Oct. 17 and again in a follow-up email on Nov. 1. Dunlap asserted that he has not been provided anything in response.

In a statement, Kossack said Dunlap’s lawsuit “has no merit and we look forward to refuting it in court.” He said he was “disappointed that Mr. Dunlap has chosen conflict over working cooperatively in a bipartisan manner to achieve the important goals of this commission.” He did not respond when asked why he had not given Dunlap the documents he’d asked for prior to filing the suit.

Among the other claims in the suit are contentions that the commission’s record-retention practices are lax and its use of personal email accounts presents data security risks.

The suit also claims the commission has not communicated with Dunlap since it last met in mid-September, including about plans for any future meetings. However, other commissioners and even outside groups have spoken publicly about such plans. On Oct. 19, for example, the conservative Minnesota Voters Alliance announced in a fundraising email that it had been “invited to speak at the December 2017 meeting of the ‘Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity.’”

Dunlap, who said he was unaware of any such meeting, emailed Kossack on Oct. 25 to ask who had invited the group. Kossack, whose job is to run the commission’s operations, stated that he didn’t know. “I have never communicated with this group, and no meeting is scheduled for December,” he wrote in an Oct. 27 email to Dunlap, a copy of which was provided to ProPublica. Said Dunlap: “If the executive director of this commission doesn’t know what his commissioners are planning, that’s a sign of bigger problems. I think that really means we’ve gone off the rails.” (The Minnesota Voters Alliance has not responded to questions from ProPublica.)

Finally, Dunlap’s suit claims the commission’s purported bipartisanship is just “a facade,” a contention Dunlap has repeatedly made since the release of a now notorious email penned by von Spakovsky in February. “There isn’t a single Democratic official that will do anything other than obstruct any investigation of voter fraud,” von Spakovsky wrote, adding that if Democrats or “mainstream Republicans” were named to the commission, it would be an “abject failure.”

In a recent interview with The Hill, von Spakovsky defended the email, asserting it was part of a “private conversation.” He also stated that he believes he is getting along with the Democrats on the commission. “So far, at least, it seems like we’ve worked well together,” he said.

Countered Dunlap: “I just laughed when I read that. We aren’t working together at all.”

This article originally published in the November 13, 2017 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

North Louisiana Republican State Sen. Neil Riser had a curious strategy to earn a runoff slot in the La. Treasurer’s race. Actively campaign for—and pay to have his name and image put atop of—nearly every ballot of the ‘acronym’ Black political organizations in New Orleans.

Call it the John McKeithen strategy. The legendary Governor merged his Northern base with Crescent City Black support to form an unbeatable electoral coalition. The problem encountered by the State Senator (and Columbia, La. funeral home owner) was that COUP, SOUL, LIFE, TIPS, and BOLD failed to deliver him the votes on October 14, 2017. Should their failure constitute a growing institutional weakness, instead of an aberration in backing a Republican, the electoral collapse of the city’s traditional African-American political organizations has major implications for Council contenders Jay Banks and James Gray.

Traditionally, the “Alphabet Groups” in New Orleans grew out of the Civil Rights struggles to organize Black voters and later elect the first African Americans to local office. Through the publication of pro-rata funded sample ballots, these groups promised to turn out the traditional Democratic electorate on behalf of an endorsed candidate. Specific areas of the city tended to be stronger with one organization than the others. (BOLD in Central City, TIPS in Tremé, COUP in most of the rest of the 7th Ward, and SOUL as one progresses towards the 9th Ward and N.O. East; though, LIFE, as the oldest, enjoyed the most ubiquitous appeal across town.) The support of all, though, usually made a candidate. As recently as the 2003 Governor’s Race, the endorsements of several of these “alphabet organizations” pushed Republican Bobby Jindal into the highest result which a GOP contender for the top state office had ever enjoyed in Orleans Parish against a viable Democrat.

This year, when the La. State Democratic Party declined to endorse Derrick Edwards in the primary, despite his status as the sole Democrat in the Treasurer’s race, Sen. Riser wooed the leadership of these “Alphabet groups.” He spent thousands of dollars in Orleans Parish underwriting their ballot efforts, yet the Caldwell Parish Undertaker ended up statistically tied at 12 percent in New Orleans with his closest GOP opponent, former State Rep. John Schroder of Covington, who advanced to the runoff.

Riser’s pro-rata share for “printing and distribution” amounted to $15,000 for BOLD (Black Organization for Leadership Development), $15,000 for LIFE (Louisiana Independent Federation of Electors), $5,000 to TIPS (Treme Improvement Political Society), $14,500 to the New Orleans East Leadership PAC, and $6,000 for Algiers PAC. (State Senators J.P. Morrell, Wesley Bishop, and Troy Carter all backed Riser over Edwards, and have ties to the respective groups.) To also court Black voters in the suburbs, $5,000 went to Jefferson United, which is affiliated with Jefferson Parish Councilman Mark Spears. [Pro-rata expenditures for SOUL, ‘The Southern Organization for Unified Leadership’, were not available when this newspaper went to press, but the group also backed Riser.]

The cross-party wooing did not stop local Democrats from supporting the Democrat. Attorney Derrick Edwards won 62 percent of the vote in Orleans Parish, claiming the lead runoff spot in the Treasurer’s race thanks mainly to the 46,122 votes he received in his home parish. He won 125,500 votes from across the state after spending almost no money, proving what political prognosticator Jeremy Alford believes “showed us what could be the floor for Democrats running statewide.”

“While an inflated turnout in Orleans may skew that analysis,” Alford continued, “the Big Easy only had the third-highest turnout for the treasurer’s race, behind Pointe Coupee and St. James parishes.” It’s arguable that Riser’s plan failed because simply most African-American voters will always choose a Democrat over a Republican, if such a choice exists. (There is even compelling evidence from past races that Black voters will skip runoff ballots where there is not a Democratic option, and still vote on down-ticket races where one exists.)

Or maybe it was simple disinterest in the Treasurer’s race. In Orleans Parish, the collective Treasurer candidates received 7,700 fewer votes than those for Mayor. Statewide, 4,200 ballots were cast in the October 14 election for the first proposed constitutional amendment than for Treasurer, despite the fact that the contenders were the first race listed on ballots throughout Louisiana. Even more ironically, Riser enjoyed the support of the Orleans Parish Republican Party, and yet did no better than the Jefferson Parish-born, St. Tammany native John Schroder in the Crescent City.

Still, the demise in power of the “Alphabet Soup” groups cannot be underestimated.

For more than a generation, they stood as kingmakers in New Orleans politics. It was unthinkable that their universal support at this grassroots level would not translate into significant votes on election day, even in a statewide contest. Perhaps, their collapse in influence comes as a factor of Hurricane Katrina. Long-standing neighborhood “influence chains” were disrupted as Black voters were dispersed across the city. The same family rarely counts multiple generations in the same block—or even the same home—as was common prior to the storm.

Moreover, many of these neighborhoods, from Central City to Tremé to Gentilly have undergone massive gentrification, with much of the original population replaced by upwardly mobile professionals. The new Caucasian and African-American homeowners feel little connection to the neighborhood political dynamics of the pre-storm era, nor any sympathy for the political groups who drew their power from them.

Lastly, federal housing projects, where poorer African-American voters could be geographically organized with relative ease, effectively no longer exist in the city. Their replacements, the subsidized HOPE6 “townhouse developments,” only count a fraction of the former residents as current inhabitants. The ability to motivate an affinity group of voters within the same housing project was a particular skill of the “Alphabet Soup” organizations. An impossible task, if the voters are no longer there to organize.

Consequently, electoral ‘warning signals’ flash for the two remaining runoff candidates most dependent upon the ballots of Black political organizations, Jay Banks and James Gray II. Banks, a member of BOLD as well as a former aide to the organization’s standard-bearers Jim Singleton and Dorothy Mae Taylor, counts on the group’s Central City pull to help him counter Seth Bloom’s money and GOP support Uptown and in the Garden District. Yet, Banks can take consolation from his auxiliary networks of backers — whose loyalty comes from far more current sources than most of BOLD can inspire.

From Banks’ perch at the Dryades YMCA, the District “B” contender has maintained a closer connection to the neighborhood than most first-time candidates. As this year’s Zulu King, his connection to African-American voters across the city has a particularly royal resonance. Perhaps more importantly, that Carnival influence has extended to an unexpected degree of white support. His years of logistical and charitable work on behalf of the historically Black Krewe have brought Banks strong endorsements—and money—from many of the corresponding leaders of the Rex organization, thus cutting into a portion of Bloom’s natural backing from conservative Caucasians Uptown.

Still, a diminished BOLD hardly helps Banks, yet the impact on his campaign is minor compared to James Gray II. The current District “E” Councilman’s bare 40 percent result in the October primary would normally be the death-knell for an incumbent. Gray’s opponent, Vietnamese community activist Cyndi Nguyen, has so effectively organized her own community as well as New Orleans East neighborhoods that have been completely redefined since the storm, that Gray’s re-election is in serious danger. The momentum favors Nguyen in the runoff.

As the African-American incumbent in a majority-Black district, Gray would normally enjoy a racial advantage, but only if his African-American base turns out to vote on November 14. In the past, Black political organizations like SOUL and LIFE would step into the breach, sponsoring GOTV efforts, but as their influence may have finally waned post-Katrina, Gray might not have this safety net to push him over the proverbial electoral “finish line,” even against an ethnic Asian challenger.

Likely, though, the waning of these organizations’ influence should not impact the mayor’s race since, effectively, LaToya Cantrell and Desiree Charbonnet have divided the “Alphabet Soup” endorsements. Cantrell enjoys SOUL’s and BOLD’s backing, and Charbonnet has COUP. (TIPS declined to endorse in the mayor’s race in the primary, but has long ties to the Charbonnet family.) Since the two runoff contenders already have divided so many core constituencies in the City, it is little surprise that contest is as close as it is to become the first woman mayor of New Orleans.

This article originally published in the November 6, 2017 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.

(Special from Facing South) – As part of the ongoing probe into Russian efforts to help Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Special Counsel Robert Mueller this week handed down criminal indictments of three Trump campaign associates, among them former campaign chair Paul Manafort of Virginia.

In a 12-count indictment that also named his business partner, Manafort was charged with conspiracy to launder money, serving as an unregistered agent of a foreign power, making false statements and other crimes. The charges relate to his laundering through foreign shell companies millions of dollars made lobbying for a pro-Russia party in Ukraine — work he failed to properly disclose — and using it to buy luxury goods and property while avoiding taxes. Manafort surrendered to the FBI, pleaded not guilty and was placed under house arrest. If convicted, the 68-year-old faces up to 80 years in prison.

The charges against Manafort — a Connecticut native with business and law degrees from Georgetown University — cap off a controversial career in politics. Much of it he spent lobbying for notorious human rights abusers such as Angolan anti-communist rebel leader Jonas Savimbi and dictators Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, Mohammed Siad Barre of Somalia and Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (now known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo).

But before he was advocating for human rights abusers on the world stage, Manafort was helping the Republican Party gain advantage by embracing the politics of racism at home.

In this 1976 White House photo Manafort shakes President Gerald Ford’s hand.

After launching his political career in 1976 as a delegate-hunt coordinator for the President Ford Committee, Manafort went on to co-found a political consulting firm. In that capacity he served as Southern coordinator for Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign, in which he exploited the GOP’s “Southern Strategy” — an effort to build political support for the Republican Party among white Democratic voters in the South through dog-whistle appeals to racism against African Americans. It can be traced back to Republican Barry Goldwater’s 1964 presidential run and was used with great success by the Nixon campaign in 1968.

Two weeks after Reagan became his party’s nominee at the 1980 Republican convention in Detroit, Manafort arranged to have him speak at Mississippi’s Neshoba County Fair, a traditional forum for right-wing politics. The visit was hosted by Trent Lott, at the time a Mississippi congressman who would go on to serve in the U.S. Senate only to lose his leadership position in 2002 after praising the segregationist politics of former Dixiecrat-turned-Republican U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina.

The Neshoba County Fair takes place just seven miles from the county seat of Philadelphia, Mississippi. That’s where during Freedom Summer of 1964 members of the Ku Klux Klan with help from the local sheriff and police murdered James Chaney, Andrew Goodman and Mickey Schwerner, young civil rights workers who had been registering rural Black residents to vote.

Mississippi declined to prosecute anyone involved in the killings at that time, so the federal government stepped in. After a lengthy battle, U.S. prosecutors finally managed to indict 18 people on federal charges of depriving the victims of their civil rights by murder. Held before an all-white jury and a white judge with a record of hostility to the Civil Rights Movement, the trial resulted in convictions for seven men. None served more than six years in prison, so it’s possible they attended the fair to hear Reagan speak.

In that historically and racially charged setting, what was the Reagan campaign’s message to the overwhelmingly white crowd of 10,000? “States’ rights” — the rallying cry for secessionists during the Civil War and for segregationists during the Civil Rights Movement. Reagan said:

I believe in states’ rights. I believe in people doing as much as they can for themselves at the community level and at the private level, and I believe we’ve distorted the balance of our government today by giving powers that were never intended in the Constitution to that federal establishment.

He went on to pledge to “restore to states and local governments the power that properly belongs to them.” As Bob Herbert of The New York Times wrote years later in response to Republican efforts to cast Reagan’s Neshoba County appearance in a more benign light, “Reagan may have been blessed with a Hollywood smile and an avuncular delivery, but he was elbow deep in the same old race-baiting Southern strategy of Goldwater and Nixon.”

A more abstract racism

Reagan went on to win a landslide victory over incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter of Georgia and racked up a record hostile to civil rights.

He cut funding for the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. He sided with the Christian fundamentalist Bob Jones University in South Carolina in a case over whether institutions that discriminate on the basis of race can get federal funds. He even vetoed the Civil Rights Restoration Act requiring publicly funded institutions to comply with civil rights laws, though Congress overrode him.

The day after the 1984 general election, in which Reagan won a second term in an even more overwhelming landslide, Republican political consultant and White House political aide Lee Atwater of South Carolina became a senior partner in Manafort’s consulting firm.

Atwater was known for his use of aggressive and racially charged tactics in his work with congressional campaigns, such as fake surveys implying an opponent was a member of the NAACP. In his work with Manafort’s firm, Atwater masterminded the racially charged Willie Horton attack ads run by the George H. W. Bush campaign in 1988 accusing Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis of being weak on crime.

Atwater had discussed the origin and thinking behind the Southern Strategy in a 1981 interview with a political scientist. It surfaced in an audio recording obtained by The Nation magazine in 2012. In it he said:

You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger” — that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites. … “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.”

Before he died in 1991, Atwater apologized for the tactics he used, noting that while he didn’t invent negative politics he was “one of its most ardent practitioners.” Manafort, though, has offered no apologies.

Making a monster

The racially divisive tactics pioneered by Manafort and his colleagues remain a feature of U.S. politics today, though they’ve been adapted to the times by exploiting white resentment toward Latinos and immigrants as well as African Americans.

After Manafort joined the Trump operation as chair in March 2016, political observers noticed a change in the campaign’s tone. Trump stopped with the blatantly outrageous statements, such as saying protesters deserve to be punched in the face, and instead deployed new messaging about threats to “our way of life,” and of crime and violence and the need for safety to “be restored.”

And in a nod to history, the Manafort-led campaign had Donald Trump Jr. speak at the Neshoba County Fair that July. The crowd chanted, “Build that wall” while some waved Confederate flags. Asked before his speech about the controversy over the Mississippi state flag with its Confederate symbolism, Trump Jr. answered, “There’s nothing wrong with some tradition.”

But by August 2016, Manafort’s work on behalf of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych had begun drawing scrutiny in the U.S. press, which reported that Manafort may have illegally received millions of dollars in off-the-books payments from Yanukovych’s party. Manafort resigned from the campaign on Aug. 19, 2016. But Republican leaders continued to praise his work for Trump.

“Nobody should underestimate how much Paul Manafort did to really help get this campaign to where it is right now,” said political consultant Newt Gingrich, the former congressional leader from Georgia and GOP presidential candidate who served as an adviser for the Trump operation.

How did the Southern Strategy as refined by Manafort work for Trump? In the end, Southern states delivered 160 Electoral College votes to him — more than half of the 306 total that sent him to the White House. White voters favored Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 21 points. Trump won among white men, white women, whites with and without college degrees, and whites of every voting age group.

One analysis found that had only white people voted in the election, Trump would have captured over 80 percent of all electoral votes — an outcome that Manafort and other Republicans helped engineer over the course of decades. As Jeet Heer observed in The New Republic, “The Southern Strategy was the original sin that made Donald Trump possible.”

Manafort’s trial is now tentatively set for April 2018. Regardless of what happens to him next, though, the political monsters he helped create live on.

Sue Sturgis is an investigative reporter and editor for Facing South, the online magazine of the Institute for Southern Studies, where this article originally appeared, www.southernstudies.org.

This article originally published in the November 6, 2017 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.