The Phillies jumped the shark when Ryan Howard grounded out to second base and tore his Achilles on the final play of Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series, a 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals that ended the World Series hopes of a team built to win it all.

For those unfamiliar with the term, jumping the shark is often used to signify the moment a decline is evident and was born from the Happy Days episode where Fonzie jumped over a shark on water skis.

Since that play that ended the 2011 season, the Phillies have gone 123-126. That’s certainly an indictment of the current nucleus.

Howard — in the second year of a five-year, $125-million contract — missed half of last season due to his recovery from the Achilles injury and was hobbled the rest of 2012. This season he has been bothered by knee problems while his power numbers have declined.

Since that magical season that produced a regular-season club record 102 wins and would have ended with a parade down Broad Street had the Cardinals not intervened, the Phillies have also seen ace Roy Halladay and second baseman Chase Utley miss significant time with injuries.

Halladay had shoulder surgery in May and has still not thrown off a mound, but hopes to return sometime this year. It is to be determined whether he will be anywhere near his previous form or whether the Phillies will be in position to make a run at a playoff berth once he returns.

For a team with the third-highest payroll in baseball, the Phillies surely have holes — most notably a bullpen which currently consists of five pitchers who spent time in the minor leagues this year and was partly responsible for turning what could have been a just-completed 8-2 road trip into a discouraging 5-5 stretch.

Losing games it seems they have won has been a frustrating habit over the last two seasons for the Phillies, who long for the 2008 World Series-winning days of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge closing with an iron fist at the end of games.

Only Howard, Cole Hamels, Carlos Ruiz, Utley and Jimmy Rollins remain from the championship squad of five seasons ago and only Hamels — despite his horrific 2013 season so far — could still be considered in his prime.

It’s likely this could be the last hurrah for the quintet though GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said before Friday’s game he considers Utley — who is in the last year of his contract — a player he would like to see be a Phillie for life.

The GM has admitted the need to get younger, though there aren’t can’t-miss prospects in Triple-A ready to spark the major-league squad next week. Third baseman Maikel Franco and pitcher Jesse Biddle are the top position and pitching prospects in the organization and both are in Double-A and likely at least a year away.

The hope for the current season lies in the Phillies’ reputation as a second-half team. Even in the Phillies’ .500 season a year ago, they rallied from a 45-57 record in late July that started a fire sale to pull within a couple games of the last wild card spot in September.

That turnaround would likely have to start earlier in July this time to assure players like Michael Young, Ruiz and closer Jonathan Papelbon aren’t dangled as trade bait for contenders.

If the Phillies believe Hamels can turn around his fortunes, they could be in the mix if for no other reason than the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals haven’t run away with the division yet and a rotation which starts with Hamels and Cliff Lee should win its share of games.

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Because they will continue to have a payroll that competes with almost every team in baseball, the Phillies won’t fall completely off the cliff. They won’t have to start from scratch like the Sixers are doing with hopes of contending in three to four years.

They will not dominate again — at least for the foreseeable future — with this group of players, but will instead be in the position they were in 2005-08, trying to overcome their flaws and slip into the playoffs.

In 2005 and 2006, the Phillies just missed out on the postseason. In 2007, they reached the playoffs on the last day of the season and were swept in the division series.

In 2008, they won the National League East in the 161st game, got the right matchups, got hot and won the World Series.

The 2013 Phillies are not as good as the 2008-2011 teams. They are probably better than the 2012 squad, and maybe the 2007 team which needed a historical collapse by the New York Mets to reach the postseason.

But the Phillies’ nucleus is aging and their bullpen is young and too often struggles, and there are enough issues to explain the infuriating inconsistencies.

To make the playoffs they will need to get hot.

They will need to get lucky.

They will need to be healthy down the stretch. And they will probably need Amaro to find the next Kyle Lohse or Scott Eyre to put them over the top.

It’s asking a lot, but that is where the 2013 Phillies are right now, a team hoping there is enough for one last hurrah.

They believe they can recreate 2008, even if the evidence suggests a finish more resembling 2006 or 2012 is the more likely scenario.