Did Russia Kill Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?

Robert T. Souza is a
Middle East Research Analyst at the Center for the Study of Targeted Killing.
Robert holds an MA in International Relations with a concentration on terrorism
and sub-state violence from Suffolk University. His work has been published in
the CTC Sentinel, Middle East Policy, and The Huffington Post.

The Russian Federation is now claiming credit for having killed
the elusive ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The Russian Defense Ministry said
via Facebook on Friday morning that, on May 28, one of its airstrikes in Syria
struck a command post hosting a meeting of ISIS leaders, possibly assassinating
the man who boldly claims to be the shadow of God on earth. The claim read as follows: “According to information which is
verified through various channels, the meeting was also attended by the leader
of ISIS, Ibrahim Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was also killed during the
airstrike.” The statement also said the airstrike killed 30 midlevel ISIS field
commanders and as many as 300 militants who made up their personal security.

Absent independent confirmation of al-Baghdadi’s death, it would
be wise to remain deeply skeptical of such astounding claims emanating from
Moscow. Not only is Friday’s assertion consistent with years of Russian disinformation regarding its so-called counterterrorism campaign in Syria, but
it also runs counter to established ISIS tactics and realities on the ground.

Consider when, back in November 2015, a squadron of Russian
strategic bombers launched a large-scale attack on the Idlib and Aleppo
provinces in northwestern Syria. Following the attack, the Russian Ministry of
Defense claimed: “During a massive airstrike today, 14
important ISIL targets were destroyed by 34 air-launched cruise missiles.
The targets destroyed include command posts that were used to coordinate
ISIL activities.” But there was one major problem with this statement: ISIS did
not have forces in Idlib or the areas of Aleppo that were targeted in the air
attack. Among the Russian targets in this northwestern region were actually
several US-backed groups known more for their opposition to the Assad regime,
such as the Free Syrian Army, Sham Legion, Jaish al Sunna, and Division 13.

To support the Kremlin’s narrative that it was conducting
pinpoint strikes against ISIS, the Russian Ministry of Defense released YouTube
videos of several airstrikes purportedly against the terrorist
group. However, these videos were subsequently scrutinized by investigative
journalists using a collaborative verification platform to match the locations
seen in the YouTube videos with satellite images from the air, as well as
ground level photographs, which established that Moscow’s claims contained
numerous elements of Soviet-style dezinformatsiia (disinformation).
Indeed, most of the targeted areas identified were without even the
slightest ISIS presence, let alone command posts used to coordinate terrorist
activity.

Putting aside Russia’s track record of deliberate fabrication of
events concerning its counterterrorism operations, Friday’s statement also
contradicts the reality on the ground in Syria. Russia proclaimed this
airstrike took place on the outskirts of Raqqa, the capital of ISIS’s self-styled
caliphate in Syria, where a massive US-supported assault by Kurdish and Arab
fighters has been ongoing for months. To escape the inevitable encirclement by
US proxy forces on the ground, most of ISIS’s leadership in Raqqa fled south
down the Euphrates long before late May, when Russia claims this airstrike took
place.

In the unlikely event that al-Baghdadi stuck around Raqqa, why
in the world would he, a shadowy figure of a man known for taking elaborate
security measures to ensure his safety, recklessly endanger himself by
attending such a large meeting? An ISIS get-together of this magnitude (300+
militants as Russia claims) would make everyone involved an easy target for
Coalition air power, and this is something ISIS has long understood. Since the
United States’ air campaign against ISIS commenced in August 2014, the
terrorist group has made a conscious effort to avoid such large gatherings for
precisely this reason.

At the end of the day, Russian policy in Syria
is one of blood, fire, and most importantly, deception. Unless the Kremlin
releases definitive evidence that a Russian airstrike killed al-Baghdadi,
Friday’s claim should be taken with a grain of salt. It appears Russia is lying
just as it has in the past about its counter-ISIS operations in Syria, and at
this point there is no reason to believe otherwise. There have been numerous
false claims of al-Baghdadi’s death since he stepped out of the shadows and
declared the resurrection of the caliphate in 2014, and this one should
probably be added to the list.