Ex-communist Europe

Montenegrin politics

Back to the future

ACROSS Podgorica opposition activists have stenciled the name of Montenegro’s two main ruling parties on walls and underneath them have added the words: “Game Over”. It is not. The general election on October 14th has produced a result which means that the ruling coalition will almost certainly retain power. Whether Milo Djukanovic (pictured above), who has dominated the political landscape here for more than 20 years returns to the job of prime minister though remains to be seen.

No Montenegrin government has ever changed via the ballot box. The main ruling party, Mr Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), is a direct descendant of the former Communist Party, which took power at the end of the second world war. And yet, Sunday’s poll is significant because it saw setbacks for the DPS and was a good day for much of the opposition.

The DPS ran as in coalition with its longtime partner, the Social Democratic Party. The allies lost their absolute majority in parliament. Barring any last minute changes their coalition will have 39 seats in the 81-seat chamber. This means it will have to form a government with parties representing ethnic minorities, almost certainly the Bosniak Party, which has three seats and which was in coalition with them before. A change in the rules about how many votes minority parties need to enter parliament mean that they were the big winners in the election, says Momcilo Radulovic, an analyst. They will extract a high price for supporting the DPS and SDP.

Another big change in the wake of the election is how the opposition landscape has shifted. A new coalition, the Democratic Front, came second. The Socialist People’s Party, an old party, lost seats but survived, while another new party, Positive Montenegro, came fourth.

For most of the past 20 years Mr Djukanovic has been president or prime minister of Montenegro. Since 2010 he has officially just been head of the DPS while Igor Luksic has been prime minister. However, it is widely believed that Mr Djukanovic has continued to run the country from behind the scenes. Sources in the DPS say that he now intends to return to the premiership to “clean up the kindergarten,” but this is far from certain.

Montenegro has been independent since 2006. Stevo Muk, an analyst, says that Mr Djukanovic managed to play the card of identity politics well in the campaign. While no mainstream party says its wants to turn the clock back and reunite with Serbia, Mr Djukanovic managed to sow seeds of doubt on this question, by arguing that only he and his party were “the guarantee of Montenegrin independence and identity.”

"After six years our statehood is still weak and we have to strengthen it," warned Mr Djukanovic during the campaign. In this way, he deflected opposition accusations of corruption, conflicts of interest and even of a certain tolerance shown to certain figures whom the opposition press accuses of involvement in organised crime.

Montenegro has been hit hard by the economic crisis. GDP grew by 2.7% last year but average salaries are only €480 ($622). The government received a major vote of confidence from the European Union in June when it began accession negotiations. Unlike Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia it has no major issue internally or in relation to its neighbours, which is slowing its European integration process.

Whether Mr Djukanovic reclaims the premiership or not, once the government is formed, all eyes will turn to the presidential election next March. One theory is the Mr Djukanovic could run, another holds that the incumbent, Filip Vujanovic, is a far less divisive figure and hence the DPS may decide that he should run again. Miodrag Lekic, a former foreign minister and now head of the Democratic Front, could run for the opposition. According to Daliborka Uljarevic, who writes a newspaper column, “it would be hard for the opposition to find a better candidate.”

The younger generation is far better educated, far more open to the world, has far better command of English and is far more entrepreneurial.

Steady opening, steady integration in Europe and steady expansion of accountable social democracy all create the space in which Montenegro's younger generation will build a more secure and prosperous future.

Montenegro may be gearing up for productivity catch up and achieving near Croatian or Slovenian living standards within a decade or two. With deep reform, lots of quality investment and integration in EU markets, it's certainly possible. I'm hopeful.

It would be great of Serbia were to follow a similar path and make up lost ground.