Manning breaks down Oscars Best Picture race, makes picks

Sunday

Mar 2, 2014 at 12:01 AMMar 2, 2014 at 4:18 PM

Noel T. Manning II

Using the term “race” to describe the Academy Awards is quite appropriate. It truly is a sprint toward the finish line in a marathon series of events leading up to the final leg, the final prize of the awards season for filmmakers.

In late October promoters began trotting their films around to voters much like thoroughbred horses being paced throughout an arena. Elements of cinematography, musical score and set design are but a few of the attributes displayed to film voters in hopes of recognition and accolades for excellence and achievement in this chaotic world of award’s season.

From critics’ picks, to actors’ choice, to directors’ and producers’ kudos — the myriad of awards groups and shows recognizing the best in filmmaking will culminate (as is always the case) with Oscar. And in truth, while all other awards are important, it is, and it will always be, the Oscar that is the most coveted prize for all filmmakers.

Much like the Super Bowl, the Pulitzer and the Nobel — all other prizes, awards or wins actually pale in comparison. And that is one of the reasons why studios spend so much money in an attempt to have their films and filmmakers noticed.

A Best Picture nomination in itself is worth $20 million more to the film’s final box office take while an Oscar win can bring in an additional $14 million after the awards are presented, according to market research organization IBISWorld. So money is definitely the most important factor in the Oscar game.

What about this year’s Best Picture frontrunners? Will initial box office receipts have a determination on the winner? We can answer that question by looking at similarities with previous Oscar races. But first, let’s examine this year’s favorites.

The frontrunners for Best Picture are really narrowed down to a box office smash (“Gravity”) vs. an historical epic (“12 Years a Slave”). Sure, there are seven others contending for the title, but other than a dark horse surprise by “American Hustle,” any other film stealing a win would be a major upset.

In recent years we’ve seen visual 3D spectacles like “Avatar”, “Hugo” and “Life of Pi” find success with critics and audiences alike while entering the final Oscar ballot.

They were all moneymakers, and had been seen by a much wider audience. Yet, each of those films eventually lost to a less lucrative, more art-driven or indie-type project.

Another interesting note is that each of the winning films had history on its side, literally. “The Hurt Locker” blew away “Avatar” by sharing a relatively unknown aspect of war, while “The Artist” silently told the story of Hollywood’s transition into talking pictures.

And last year, Ben Affleck’s life-or-death rescue mission of American hostages in 1979’s Iran was a compelling piece of storytelling for Academy voters, earning “Argo” Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Editing awards.

So if history holds true this year, what can we expect? “Gravity”, while a surprise hit and visual masterpiece will be grounded in the Best Picture race, while Steve McQueen’s true story interpretation of one of the most compelling and tragic periods in American history will find the freedom to be named the best of the year.

Manning is a charter member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association and hosts two weekly webcasts for WGWG and two weekly radio shows dedicated to the world of film. He has been reporting on entertainment news since 1991. Noel is also an adjunct professor of film studies at Gardner-Webb University.

Oscar Predictions and Votes from Noel T. Manning II

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave (should win and will win)

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity (will win)

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (should win)

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (will win)

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave (should win)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (will win)

Sandra Bullock, Gravity (should win)

Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyongo, 12 Years a Slave (should win and will win)

Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (should win and will win)

Best Original Screenplay

Her (should win and will win)

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave (should win and will win)

Best Animated Feature

Frozen (should win and will win)

Best Foreign Film

The Great Beauty (should win and will win)

Best Documentary

The Square (will win)

20 Feet from Stardom (should win)

Best Production Design

The Great Gatsby (will win)

Gravity (should win)

Best Cinematography

Gravity (should and will win)

Best Costume Design

The Great Gatsby (should and will win)

Best Editing

Captain Phillips (will win)

Gravity (should win)

Best Makeup and Hair

Dallas Buyers Club (should win and will win)

Best Score

Steven Price — Gravity (Should and will win)

Best Song

“Let it Go” — Frozen (Should and will win)

Best Sound Editing

Gravity (Should and will win)

Best Sound Mixing

Gravity (Should and will win)

Best Visual Effects

Gravity (should and will win)

Best Animated Short

Get a Horse (should win and will win)

Best Documentary Short

The Lady in Number 6 (should win and will win)

Best Live Action Short

The Voorman Problem (will win)

Helium (should win)

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