ISRAEL - The New Year started
in Israel and in Palestine with expectations to the general elections
in both sides,
which were supposed to
open a new stage in the dialogue between them towards political arrangements.
No one expected a deep change – Mahmud Abbas was, and still is, the
leading candidate to continue his role as the Palestinian Prime Minister,
even though he is getting weaker every day, and Ariel Sharon was
expected to lead the new party he had formed “Kadima” (Forward) to
a sweeping victory and to form a more stable government for Israel
in late March.

But Sharon sudden illness has changed the scene. The whole
world is looking up to the 7th floor of Hadassa hospital in jerusalem, as if
the Messiah himself is lying there in coma, planning his miraculous awake, that
will bring peace. While I am writing these words Sharon is still in a critical
condition. Even if he survives the stroke, it is obvious that he won’t
return to his office.

So the Israeli politics are boiling, taking two parallel tracks
– one is being politically and humanly correct, meaning: “we don’t
do anything until he recovers… this is not the time to talk politics…
we must be united… we all pray for his full recovery… his seat around
the government table is waiting for him… etc.
The other track, at first behind the scene and now more and more open –
is preparing for the elections – internal (inside the parties) and national
(in 2 months time) and planning the morning after Sharon.

The new party Kadima, is surprisingly still leading in the
polls. It seems like Sharon’s spirit is hovering over the public opinion
and uniting his supporters around the ambiguous message of “Peace and
Security”. This is what most Israelis are yearning for – peace and
security, but no one, not even Sharon, has not provided the magic formula of
how to achieve it.

The new leader, Ehud Ulmert, has taken office smoothly. Despite
its many flaws, the Israeli democracy is stable enough and its judiciary system
is strong enough to secure the right transfer of power in time of crisis. This
was the case when Prime Minister Rabin was assassinated 10 years ago, and this
is the case now.
Ulmert is a very experienced politician, not a former general nor a charismatic
personality, but very shrewd and responsible and relatively moderate in his
opinions and conduct.

He is “walking on eggs” now, avoiding any inappropriate
steps or remarks, watching his way up to the top. Others in his party are waiting
tensely to the final list of candidates for Parliament. Sharon had started this
delicate job of maneuvering between the different candidates to form a list
that would represent various sectors of the society, taking into account gender,
ethnic affiliation and other consideration, but apparently had not shared his
choices with his colleagues.

Other parties conduct “primaries” in which the
candidates are elected, Kadima is too young for that. In fact on January 12,
the Likkud, headed by Benjamin Nethaniahu, held internal elections and came
out with a surprising list, pushing down former ministers and putting in the
front new faces. Shinui, the central anti-religious party collapsed after its
elections and 2 other right-wing parties are changing faces too.

So the coming elections in Israel cannot be predicted at all.
Even though there are almost daily polls, 2 months in this country are a very
long political time. Various factors determine the political behavior of the
average Israeli voter – one of them is what is going on the other side
of the lines – meaning in the Palestinian Authority. Past experience shows
that when there is terror – the right wing is winning, when there are
prospects of negotiations and talks – the center is strengthening. Right
now the situation in Palestine is fragile and dangerous. The militant fundamentalist
Hammas group is gaining power and threatens the PA, Abbas, as we said above,
is weak and unable to deliver his own promises, other Fatah leaders who may
be good partners for Israel are in Israeli jails and the chaos and despair in
Gaza are growing every day.

All in all – the next 2-month won’t bring any dramatic
developments. Until the elections Ulmert and his small government (Labor Likkud
and had left it) would not dare initiate any new compromises towards the Palestinians,
who in their turn won’t start any dialogue with an interim Israeli government.
So we’ll have to wait till the beginning of April to see any new moves.

Two weeks after Sharon’s sudden unwilling retirement
from the political scene – there are more questions than answers. No matter
if he dies or remains partially alive – Israeli politics is moving a generation
ahead and for the first time has no generals at the top of the 3 major parties.
Is this a good sign for future peaceful initiatives? It is too early to say.