2010 MLB Draft: Top 101 College Outfielders

A few quick thoughts before we get to the ranking of the 2010 MLB Draft’s Top 100 College Outfield Prospects™. I may add to this throughout the week as random thoughts pop into my head, but we’ll start off with some quick justifications for players at the top of the list, an explanation about the relatively low rankings of two much ballyhooed prospects, and a general overview of how I pieced together the list. I may also tweak this list here and there in the next week, both near the top (3-11 are all really, really close for me) and closer to the bottom (a few pop-up guys I heretofore haven’t paid enough attention to deserve one last look), but those changes will probably be reflected when the college position player big board is revealed tomorrow.

Michael Choice has five solid or better tools (solid: speed, defense, bat; better: arm and power) and the potential to hit 30+ homers or more playing every day in the big leagues. Tyler Holt’s fantastic approach, stellar base running, and plus defense should help keep him employed as an everyday leadoff hitting centerfielder (at best) or a reserve outfielder (at worst) for a long, long time. Wates has no glaring weakness to his game and profiles as an above-average regular who should move quickly through the minors after signing. Mummey came into the year as a prospect who relied on plus speed, plus defense, and enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Well, one 2010 slugging percentage north of .800 and the highest of praise for his defense later, it seems like he’s taken what he’s done well and amplified it.

Gary Brown and Ryan LaMarre were both initially lower than even their current modest standing (tying up so much value in batting average terrifies me), but, after running the rough copy of this by a few people way smarter than I am, I moved each guy up five spots or so. Then, realizing that just because I always lump the two players together in my head, I took a step back and only left one player up in the rankings. Brown stayed up high because, if nothing else, he has the floor as one the league’s best fly catchers in center and a true base stealing threat off the bench. LaMarre’s skill set is nothing to sneeze at, don’t get me wrong, but the lack of a premium tool to fall back on lumps him back in with other well-rounded potential outfield tweener types like Todd Cunningham, Parker, and Santos.

At the top, big bats with below-average corner outfield defense were penalized. In the middle, my old love of hitting won out because, and this is more of a personal draft philosophy quirk than anything, at a certain point in the draft you have to start taking players you acknowledge do not have starting upside and instead focus on players with one or two definite big league tools. Whether it’s the power to contribute off the bench in a pinch (e.g. Patterson, Wes Cunningham, Bailey) or the defense/speed to hang on for a long time as a fifth outfielder (Den Dekker is the most obvious example of this), the player needs to show a clearly defined big league tool to make his mark. I think the former has more traditional value in the game (perhaps deservedly so), but the latter is a) easier to project, b) very much en vogue these days, and c) pretty darn important in its own right. I tried to weigh all of these factors into the list accordingly.

One last important note before we go on – the scouting reports, so much as they can be called scouting reports, are wholly incomplete for a handful of reasons I’ll hopefully be able to announce at a later date. If you’ve got something to add, something to ask, something that needs clarification…leave a comment or drop me an email. I’m more than happy to go into more detail about any player. Alright, time for the list…

10. West Oklahoma State JC SO OF Randolph Oduber (good raw power; above-average to plus speed; good athlete; little to no plate discipline, but improving in this area; very raw; below-average arm; 6-2, 200 pounds)

11. Cal State Fullerton JR OF Gary Brown (plus speed (70); good bat control; plus defender in CF; average arm; puts ball in play at very high rate, but inability to take a walk makes his overall offensive value very much dependent on batting average; 6-0, 180 pounds)

12. Jacksonville State JR OF Todd Cunningham (quick bat; good approach at plate; little present power, but flashes raw plus power during batting practice; could just be gap power as professional; good defender; average arm; good speed; performed well with wood on Cape; danger of being labeled a tweener; 6-1, 205 pounds)

29. Rutgers JR OF Pat Biserta (iffy defender in left field who may profile best at first or DH, but his numbers have been so strong in 2010 — park and schedule adjusted line of .440/.502/.812; 28 BB/28 K; 43 extra base hits; 5/6 SB — that you’re at least getting a guy with big league bench bat potential)

30. California JR OF Mark Canha (poor defender in the outfield who may have to play first base professionally; above-average to plus arm; interesting hit tool; 6-2, 195 pounds)

36. Rutgers JR OF Jaren Matthews (unrefined approach prior to 2010, but concerted effort to take better at bats impressed; plus defensive possibilities at first base (natural position), but a good enough athlete to be average or better in the outfield; to that end, good enough speed and instincts for outfield make the conversion likely to happen; 6-2, 215 pounds)

37. Auburn JR OF Brian Fletcher (aggressive at plate, in both a good and bad way; good athlete; good defender; strong arm; plus power; 6-4, 195 pounds)

Unfortunately I think Donato is a really, really long shot to be drafted this year. Allow me to qualify that by saying that I haven’t heard anything from anybody in the know, just throwing it out there as my largely uninformed opinion. Upside with the bat just isn’t there, but there does exist some outside chance that a team would take a shot on him maybe as a post-draft fill out the rookie ball roster if they thought he could go back to catching a bit.

definitely forgot one! i’ve seen him play and he is a huge threat at the plate and can play the field. Definitely should go before Lang and Matthews! After hitting 9 homeruns in 7 games pitchers were pitching around him every game. Top Prospect!

Thanks a ton for this. I can’t believe I forgot about Biserta. He’s been added. I saw him hit earlier in the year and came away impressed, but that was back before he was playing regularly in the field. Have either of you guys seen him in the field this year and, if so, any thoughts about his defense? I haven’t heard good things, so that’s what keeps me from being too excited about his big league upside. Still, can’t argue with the 2010 results with the bat, right?

John McCambridge, Xavier, CF…….stud, just starting to hit for power, great athlete, speed to spare, in 3 years will be a 5 tool player. great work ethic, intelligent, will play in MLB,. probably one of those Billy Beane, nobody knows about him, but the A’s picks. Mom was twice an Olympic diver, entire family D-1.

Very interesting comment, thank you. I thought I might have been underselling McCambridge a bit, and you make a nice case in favor of him here. My biggest question is with his eventual power upside. For me, he’s got a long way to go in that department before I could really consider him anything more than a guy with fourth OF upside. There’s value there, of course, and that’s part of the reason why McCambridge made the list over some of the close calls that just missed.

As an aside, I agree with you that those athletic bloodlines do help and should at least be considered when scouting a guy, but I know many disagree. Always thought that was a interesting debate.

I like Lockwood as a college player, but think of him as a little bit too much of a tweener to make it to the big leagues as things currently stand. I really thought he could be a top five round guy after his freshman year, but have been a tad disappointed in his relative lack of progress over his college career.

Of course, and I can’t stress this point enough, I’m just a dude with a website doing the best I can. There are plenty of people out there way smarter than I who like him a lot more. I wish him nothing but the best going forward and hope he makes me look bad by not having him on the list.

Is LaMarre of UofM better than Boike of MSU? Boike was 4th in Big Ten in BA had the lowest number of SO’s for a batter with 200 AB’s, 40 rbi’s from a guy that batted lead-off. Was MVP of his summer wood bat league last summer.
I think he may go higher than 20 or 30 guys above him on your list. No hacktastic with this kid.

I think I dinged Boike a bit for being a senior (I think people often forget the age relative to league standards that are held so dear in the minors also need to apply to college ball) and for not really having one knockout, obvious to all, plus tool. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on that last point, of course.

As for your last point (“he may go higher than 20 or 30 guys above him”), I can’t necessarily disagree. He very well may. The list is more of a personal ranking than a prediction as to where guys will get picked. For example, I’m roughly 100% sure Bryce Brentz is getting drafted ahead of at least 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him on this list, but, for me at least, that doesn’t make him the better prospect.

Definitely forgot Pat Biserta. Disagree with going before Lang or Matthews, they have many other tools. He hit great in the beginning of the season but could use some work running bases and on the defensive side. Some speedwork needed to be done. However, Brandon Boykin was listed under a different position. He won’t go for anything in the infield. He will get drafted as an outfielder possibly if not will go his senior year. Jarred Jimenez, graduating senior has potential to go. Struggled this year with his numbers but his previous years could help him. Good at the plate, great speed and athleticism both on defense and on the bases. Lang and Matthews definitely going. Overall Rutgers should have various players going high or low in the draft.

I was really conflicted on where to stick Biserta relative to Lang and/or Matthews, but eventually decided that his bat is that one true plus tool (potentially) that could get him to the bigs in at least a backup role. That said, Lang and Matthews (a big personal favorite) are both more well-rounded prospects and each should be able to contribute to a pro team in various ways. In the end, I just think it’s pretty cool to see Rutgers with three potential pro outfielders ranked so highly…and I’m not even a Rutgers fan.

You’re definitely right about Boykin. I probably should have played it more conservative and just kept him with the outfielders because that’s almost certainly where he’ll wind up. However, in talking to a few area scouts over the past few weeks, I know there are at least two teams out there that think he could play second base professionally if given the right coaching at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Basically, they said that he’s not even on their radar as a potential OF, but they would maybe take a chance on him late if they thought he could handle 2B even just a little bit.

Two out of thirty teams is hardly compelling evidence, I know, but at least there’s hope. If we’re being totally honest, I think, as you mentioned, we’ll probably have a similar conversation next season because Boykin seems a better than 50/50 bet to wind up back at Rutgers in 2011.

If your girlfriend’s brother comment was directed at me…….. good guess … butttttt NO. Instead of getting personal why not make an argument about my supposition? Is LaMarre better than Boike? Show me the stats! Check the Cal Ripken summer baseball league stats for 2009.