Waiver Wire Quarterback: Week 11

With only two or three weeks until most league’s playoffs begin, you likely have an established quarterback leading your fake football army. But some aren’t so fortunate.

Many savvy streamers relied on Jake Locker last week, but to no avail as the Titans quarterback is now the “Hurt Locker”, out for the remainder of the season. Others attempted to play the matchups with Eli Manning, who posted another single-digit outing.

So whether you’re looking for an upside play to get you into the playoffs, or for a consistent point source to keep your team afloat until Aaron Rodgers comes back, there are plenty waiver wire quarterback options for Week 11.

Safe to Trust

Nick Foles (Owned in 45.4% of ESPN.com leagues)

I’m not sure if it’s a run of savory matchups, Chip Kelly’s offense finally figuring itself out, or if Nick Foles is actually a good NFL quarterback, but he keeps putting up QB1 numbers. On the back of his 16:0 touchdown to interception ratio for the season, the sophomore quarterback has had only one game below 16 fantasy points as a starter, and has become something of a safe stream option.

He should continue his success this week against a Redskins defense that, when adjusted for schedule, ranks 18th in the NFL in pass defense efficiency according to NEP (to learn more about NEP, click here).

Case Keenum (9.4%)

Keenum is making a very solid case against his draft day doubters, in route to becoming the league’s 12th-most efficient quarterback in terms of Passing NEP per Pass (min. 100 attempts). Keenum and his willingness to throw the ball down field has rejuvenated Houston’s offense, and allowed Keenum to put up over 20 points per game as a starter.

And it’s not like he’s playing the Jaguars every week either, with two of his QB1 outings coming against top-6 pass defenses. Expect the good times to continue this week, as the Texans run game is as bruised and battered as any in the league, which will allow Keenum to air it out around 40 times per game. Throw in a matchup against a Raider’s defense allowing 18.8 points per game to opposing signal-callers, and you have a recipe for a top notch waiver wire quarterback.

Keep in mind that our algorithms don't see him with as much upside yet due to sample size.

Josh McCown (1.4%)

At this point, it doesn’t even matter who Marc Trestman’s quarterback is, because they’ll be a good streaming option no matter what. With Jay Cutler out with a high ankle sprain, McCown will be at the helm this week against Baltimore.

With a Pass NEP per pass of 0.37, McCown trails only Foles and Peyton Manning for the top mark in the league. In about two games worth of football, the long-time journeyman has thrown for 538 yards and four touchdowns, and will look to continue his success this week against the Ravens. The matchup isn’t good, but Baltimore has allowed five touchdowns through the air the past two weeks, making McCown more of a conservative waiver wire play.

Flotation Device

Here is my actual analysis - Tannehill has been nothing more than average this year, as he his Pass NEP per pass of -.01 suggest he’s right below the average quarterback. This translates directly to his fantasy value, as the 18th-highest scoring player at the position doesn’t provide much appeal. But if you’re into a safe and steady game from your fantasy quarterback, Tannehill is your guy.

He has scored between 10.8 and 16.9 points ever single week, but could offer some upside in Week 11 against the Chargers. San Diego ranks 28th against the pass, and allows over 20 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If you’re looking for safe buy week fill in or injury replacement with a high floor, take a long look at the Dolphins quarterback.

Castoffs or QB1s?

Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.6%)

If you’re struggling to find any of the aforementioned waiver wire quarterbacks, then it may be time to try your hand at some Fitzmagic. With Jake Locker sidelined the rest of the season, Fitzpatrick steps right in and almost replicates Locker’s fantasy value. He is good enough to post low-end numbers through the air, but his real value, like Locker, comes from his rushing ability. In his three outings with at least 30 passes, Fitzpatrick has rushed for 30 yards per game and scored twice. This not only gives him a surprisingly high floor, but a high ceiling if he can sneak one into the end zone.

His matchup against the Colts should furthermore aid Fitzpatrick in his quest for a fantasy resurrection. The Colts rank 26th against the pass according to our metrics, and have been carved by Kellen Clemens and Case Keenum in consecutive weeks for almost 600 yards and five scores. You could certainly do worse if fighting for a playoff berth.

Jason Campbell (4.0%)

Since being thrown into the fire that is the Browns' starting quarterback in Week 8, Campbell has been nothing short of brilliant. Posting two consecutive games of over 20 fantasy points is impressive, but doing it against the league’s best defensive team in the Chiefs and the defending Super Bowl champions should attract fantasy owner’s attention.

Campbell has been a top-10 quarterback in terms of NEP this season, and has a good chance at replicating his recent success this week. Coming off a bye in which Campbell undoubtedly became more comfortable with the offense, the Browns will take on the Bengals depleted secondary. He’s one of the riskier stream options this week.