As the world begins to adjust to the mobile phone as a computing platform, we have to recognize the fact that for many people the device is bound to become the complete substitute for all computing needs. But not quite in the form we see it. I've written about this idea as far back as 1993, but this concept should be reexamined: We need to be in the right frame of mind for what's coming.

First of all the iPhone has set the stage for the future in much the same way that the Apple II set the stage for what became personal computing. And I can see things unfolding in much the same way. But the iPhone itself (or whatever device people end up using) needs at least two more iterations to become the desktop replacement. Let's start with some minimal requirements. First of all, a 250GB or bigger drive of some sort will be needed. And a processor with enough power to run both slim phone apps and robust office apps.

Each device must have a large connector on the bottom onto which any variety of dongles can be attached for input and output. The device should also fit into a cradle or docking station so it can be hooked directly to a keyboard and large screen. There should be no intermediary computer involved. Dock at work and it becomes the desktop replacement, where you do word processing and everything else. Then you pocket it and perhaps dock at home, or use it for its other mobile capabilities.

Whether or not it's docked, the entire 250GB-plus drive should constantly sync to the cloud, becauselet's face itthe device itself will be broken, lost, stolen, or dropped into the toilet. You get a new phone, hit sync, and boom, you're back exactly where you left off. This is a crucial requirement.

The perfect mobile phone would include GPS, digital video output, GSM and various other phone radios, best-of-breed Internet connectivity, a LoJack-like capability, Wi-Fi and WiMAX connectivity, and a real OS such as Android Linux. You'd also have a camera in the front and back, both capable of 1080p recording. The design of the phone can be anything, but I can't imagine anything too different from what we already have.

The I/O connector would need: keyboard, XGA, printer, Ethernet, and USB connectors, as well as a virtual display driver and audio in and out. There are probably a few other things that aren't coming to mind at the moment as well. With various dongles you should be able to interface the device with your car or hook other gear to it for increased functionality.

I imagine using this computer-phone in an airplane with virtual screen goggles and a folding keyboard. You power it up and put on the glasses, then write a document at your seat while looking at a virtual 20-inch screen. You could edit photos, watch movies, work on a PowerPoint presentation, or play games without anyone peering in on what you are doing. The device would also be good for your music collection; you could listen to podcasts and tunes through the car stereo as you can with an iPod. But this device should pump turn-by-turn driving instructions through the car stereo, too.

It should contain state-of-the-art voice recognition, so the thing is at least as useful as the OnStar service. You should be able to tell it to do searches and driving instructions as well as making phone calls by name.

When you combine these practical capabilities with the software being invented almost daily by iPhone, Android, Symbian, BlackBerry, and Palm Pre developers, the sky is the limit insofar as usefulness is concerned. I'm a fan of segmented computing environments (in other words, having a separate laptop, desktop, and smartphone), yet I can see the day when all you will have is a smartphone. This will happen when the phone has serious compatible I/O, such as multiple USB ports and video in and out, plus a little more processing oomph.

This sort of device definitely requires strong password protection, unless you have zero regard for your privacy; these phones will be lost and stolen by the millions. Luckily people today who are slowly transitioning to Ubuntu are almost forced to implement strong passwords, so they'll get used to this. People will need to use strong passwords more than ever with these little devices.

Exactly when this scenario will unfold is the big mystery, but everyone knows it's coming. I'd say it will be fully achieved within five years. I'd be surprised if it took any longer.

About the Author

John C. Dvorak is a columnist for PCMag.com and the co-host of the twice weekly podcast, the No Agenda Show. His work is licensed around the world. Previously a columnist for Forbes, PC/Computing, Computer Shopper, MacUser, Barrons, the DEC Professional as well as other newspapers and magazines. Former editor and consulting editor for InfoWorld, he... See Full Bio

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