EXTRAORDINARY official statistics that say Wales has seen a rise of 8.7% in public sector employment in a year have led to fears that spending cuts have yet to hit with full force.

The figure, published on the Office for National Statistics’ website Nomis, paints a different picture to the more conventional way of measuring changes in the labour market, which says there has been a decrease in public sector jobs in Wales.

According to Nomis, there was a rise in public sector employment of 35,800 jobs between June 2010 and June 2011 – equivalent to 8.7%.

Over the same period, there was said to have been a decrease of 35,000 jobs (3.7%) in the Welsh private sector. In percentage terms, this was the biggest private sector drop behind the East Midlands at 4.2%.

Also according to Nomis, Wales was one of only four UK regions that saw a rise in public sector employment. The others were Scotland (up 9%), the South East of England (up 2.2%) and London (up 0.8%).

The other eight regions showed falls in the number of public sector jobs, with the biggest percentage drop occurring in the North East of England (down 8.2%).

A further breakdown of the Nomis figures suggests the rise in public sector employment reflects a big increase in the number of people employed in what is classified as “human health and social work activities”. The discrepancy between these and differently calculated figures is because Nomis includes in its definition of public sector employment workers under contract to public sector organisations.

An overall analysis of the Nomis figures carried out by the Centre for Cities think tank says: “Currently, the private sector is struggling to create jobs at the rate required to offset the private sector jobs lost during the recession and to cover the shrinkage in the public sector.”

Centre for Cities chief executive Joanna Averley said: “In those places that are highly reliant on the public sector, the impact of the cuts will be felt hardest.”

Former Bridgend Council Labour leader Jeff Jones, now a local government consultant, said: “These figures are quite surprising and suggest that the tsunami of public sector job losses everybody is expecting has not really hit Wales yet. I’m sure there is much more to come.

“At local authority level, there has been a lot of talk about streamlining and sharing services, but things haven’t gone nearly as far as they have in England. In London, three Tory councils – Hammersmith and Fulham, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea – have agreed in principle to share all their services. This is expected to lead to the loss of 50% of administrative jobs.

“We’ve had nothing like that in Wales yet, although in Bridgend, for example, council workers are getting letters telling them their jobs have been re-evaluated and in some cases they are having pay cuts amounting to thousands of pounds a year.”

Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Economy Nick Ramsay said: “These figures are very startling and incredibly worrying. The First Minister himself has admitted our private sector is too small and these statistics are proof that his concerns are not translating into action. There is an urgent need for private sector growth and job creation – yet the Welsh Labour Government continues to dither over its decision-making.

“This week’s long-awaited announcement on the introduction of enterprise zones was welcome, yet many questions remain unanswered, not least how sectors of the economy will be restricted to certain geographical areas. Wales will continue to be reliant on the public sector until Labour gets its acts together and makes constructive decisions on the economy.”

The figures relate to a period when Plaid Cymru was in government with Labour and its leader Ieuan Wyn Jones was the Minister for Economy and Transport.

A Plaid Cymru spokeswoman said: “Unfortunately the figures that have been used for this report have been described as ‘unreliable’ by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) itself. In this instance, the ONS quarterly public sector employment statistics are a much more reliable source and paint a very different picture – showing a decrease of 10,000 public sector jobs in Wales over the same period.

“The public sector employment statistics show the severe economic conditions that Wales is facing. Given the economic conditions and the hostile policies of the UK Government, it is extremely concerning that the new Labour Welsh Government is doing very little to create jobs. All indicators point towards the urgent need for government action to stimulate the economy which the ConDem Government in Westminster and the Labour government in Wales currently refuse to address.”

Darren Williams of the Public and Commercial Services union – the largest union representing civil servants said the Nomis figures did not tally with his union’s awareness of what was happening on the ground.