The effects of severe weather are felt every year by many South Africans. To obtain critical weather information, the SAWDOS use voluntary weather observers. These volunteers help keep their local communities safe and informed by providing timely and accurate reports of severe weather to the SAWDOS for publication on the Blog. The SAWDOS is a non-profit organization that renders a FREE COMMUNITY-BASED SERVICE.

Tuesday, 22 January 2013

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 35.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 37.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF CENTER. A 212255Z AMSU
IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND DISORGANIZED, SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 211937Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK (15 TO 25 KNOTS)
CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED EAST
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 40 KNOTS) AND IS POSITIONED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (50 TO 60 KNOTS),
WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND HAS POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM-
CORE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-
BUILD OVER THE LLCC AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEEP MOISTURE CORE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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