Coffee higher after producers say Roya to cut crop next year

General Comments: Futures closed mixed to higher in light volume trading. Weather remains good in Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures to continue for now, but a cold front is expected to bring a chill to the state by next week. Forecasts do not call for any threatening temperatures, but the talk of colder weather created some buying in the nearby months. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 110.00, and 109.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher and charts assumed a more bullish look on what appeared to be speculative buying called short covering by traders. Some stops were hit when futures took out the highs from last week in early trading. The fundamental situation still appears negative. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market. Demand is there, but not in big amounts as most buyers are not worried about prices. Most statistical organizations continue to look for a big surplus production for the year. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. Futures trends are down. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace remains slow. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.

Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil this week. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1910, 1950, and 1965 March. Support is at 1855, 1825, and 1805 March, and resistance is at 1905, 1920, and 1960 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 500.00 and 510.00 March. Support is at 490.00, 480.00, and 475.00 March, and resistance is at 501.00, 503.00, and 515.00 March.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed lower. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and weak demand ideas are still around. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress and for the mid-crop and next crop. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. Ivory Cost growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 3.830 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2100 March. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1440, 1455, and 1465 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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