We’re all fretting about a government shutdown and potential government default, but eventually this particular trauma will pass.

But the really big issue hanging over market sentiment won’t go away: At some point, the Federal Reserve will start the long process of “normalizing” U.S. monetary policy, with profound implications for investors.

And that’s especially a concern if you’re invested in emerging markets.

So, it’s convenient that Moody’s sovereign analyst team has given us a rundown on how the eventual end to bond-buying and the subsequent increase in interest rates will affect different developing countries’ economies and credit standing.

According to two reports released overnight, Moody’s works off the basic assumption that within five years the Fed will have brought interest rates back to normal – defined as a federal funds rate at the 1997-2007 average of 3.9% and a 10-year Treasury yield of 5%. They then consider three scenarios for how markets might go through the adjustment process: a “high” scenario, in which markets immediately price in the future monetary tightening; a “central” case, in which the market adjustment is completed by end-2014; and a “low” scenario, the foresees the market adjustment concluding by mid-2016.

In each scenario, Moody’s says, GDP growth in both developed and developing countries decreases somewhat, but the impact on sovereign ratings will be limited. Bigger effects will be felt for the ratings of various private-sector issuers, however.

Crunching the numbers, Moody’s concludes that countries with large current account imbalances – Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey being the biggest culprits – will all see even more capital outflows than they’ve already experienced, which will put their currencies and debt ratings under pressure. But they also note that in the medium-term, the exchange rate adjustment will help to mitigate the economic fallout by making the affected economies more competitive.

The team concludes that Latin America will be hardest hit, because its capital markets are relatively open and have close ties to the U.S. Its simulation shows a more benign impact on the Asia-Pacific region and even less of an impact on Eastern Europe, which takes its cues more from the euro zone than the dollar bloc. Least affected would be Africa – South Africa excepted — because “the exposure and reliance on international capital markets of countries in this region is relatively limited”