Energy ballet-2: Syria, Ukraine & 'Pipelineistan'

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of "Globalistan" (2007), "Red Zone Blues" (2007), "Obama does Globalistan" (2009) and "Empire of Chaos" (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is "2030", also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.

As much as Iran, Russia, the US and the EU are involved in a sophisticated nuclear/energy ballet, Syria and Ukraine are also two key power play vectors bound to determine much of what happens next in the New Great Game in Eurasia.

The Emir of Qatar himself had taken the road to Damascus in 2009
to negotiate a Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline. Bashar al-Assad
though, said no; his excuse was his unwillingness to jeopardize
Syria’s energy deals with Russia.

And yet, in 2001, an agreement went ahead for a rival
Iran-Iraq-Syria project. So the writing was on the wall – or on
the (steel) pipes arriving one day in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The gas for prospective European customers would in fact come
from Iran’s South Pars field, contiguous to Qatar’s North Dome;
together, they form the largest gas field on the planet.

Not only for Qatar and Turkey, but especially for His Masters
Voice, this was unacceptable; the official US ‘isolate Iran’
policy would be in tatters. Worse: the possibility was open for
the EU to soon become the privileged customer of both Russia and
Iran for no less than 45 percent of its gas supply. Full
energy/trade integration of Eurasia – in this key case involving
most of the EU, Russia and Iran - is absolute anathema for the
Empire of Chaos.

Thus the key economic rationale for the whole ‘Assad must go’
disaster; a war OF terror largely financed by Qatar and Saudi
Arabia, with logistical support from Turkey, with Ankara, the CIA
and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) gang running a ‘secret’
weaponizing airlift of so-called ‘good’ jihadists using Saudi,
Qatari and Jordanian military cargo planes since 2012.

The least one can say is that the blowback was spectacular.
‘Assad must go’ didn’t go. And nothing less than IS (Islamic
State), formerly ISIS, led by Caliph Ibrahim, reared its ugly
head. Even US Special Forces are drooling at their fighting
power.

The Caliphate engulfing parts of Syria and Iraq is now making a
fortune selling – irony of ironies - cut-rate oil and gas in the
black market. It amounts to at least $38 million a month: $8
million from a captured Syrian gas field and $30 million from at
least six captured Iraqi oil fields.

The Houses of Saud and Thani now ostensibly profess to be
horrified by the Caliph and his beheaders, including the
so-called Beatles jihadists. And yet private Saudi and Qatari
donors, as well as other GCC notables, continue to shower the
Caliphate with cash and weapons. President Erdogan in Turkey is
now also officially horrified. And yet the Turkish-Syria border
remains a free for all for traveling jihadists.

As things stand in Pipelineistan, the possibility for the
Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas project taking off is zero. And the
prospect is not much better for Iran-Iraq-Syria, considering two
of these nations are raked by civil war with no endgame in sight.

Have Grad, will frack

In the Ukraine scenario, the ‘villain’ is Russia instead of Iran.
And there’s a much wider implication of direct US interests.

What really matters in eastern Ukraine is to clear off a large
area for fracking – via a Grad missile offensive, leading to a
mass exodus of refugees.

Michael Hudson has neatly summarized it: “Now, just imagine
in this country if President Obama and Vice-President Biden were
to send troops into upstate New York, which has opposed oil/gas
drilling, and bombed Rochester, bombed Buffalo, and began just
bombing the cities and shooting the opponents of the fracking.
That’s exactly what’s happening in the [sic] Ukraine. And they’re
doing this supported by the World Bank.”

Royal Dutch Shell happens to be the top shale gas
explorers/exploiters in eastern Ukraine; a $10 billion deal
was signed in January.

And then there’s the Exxon as well as the Burisma Holdings
connection. Dual Israeli-Ukraine citizen and appointed governor
of Dnepropetrovsk, shady billionaire Igor Kolomoisky – who also
deploys his own private militia - is in bed with no less than VP
Biden. Joe Biden’s son was appointed a director of oil and gas
concern Burisma Holdings, the largest fracking company in
Ukraine.

Moreover, parliament in Kiev passed a law that will allow US and
EU investors to lease up - on a joint venture basis – up to 49
percent of Ukraine’s transit pipelines and underground gas
storage facilities.

Kiev’s spin is predictable; the joint venture will bring in
much-needed ‘investment’ and shelve for good another key
Pipelineistan plank; the 2,446-kilometer long South Stream
pipeline, which is planned to bring Gazprom’s blue gold under the
Black Sea, entering the EU in Bulgaria, and thus totally
bypassing transit through Ukraine. Translation: Kiev’s already
wobbly budget will shrink even further with more meager transit
fees.

The EU imports almost 30 percent of the gas it needs from Russia.
Half, at the moment, transits via Ukraine. But for the near
future the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea will be
boosted, and South Stream is a near certainty once the Ukraine
mess is finally sorted out. Bypassing Ukraine is an increasingly
sound option.

Compare it to Kiev’s wet dream, boosted by Washington, to
‘control’ the flow of gas from Gazprom to the EU and on top of it
secure all trade in US dollars. Once again we’re back to prime
Empire of Chaos policy – preventing further energy/economic
integration between Russia and the EU.

Washington’s short-term priority thus is to sabotage South
Stream; no wonder the pipeline is temporarily on hold, with the
European Commission (EC) duly obeying His Masters Voice. Yet this
also means that for the moment large swathes of the EU remain
hostage to Ukraine.

It's under this light that we should examine the recent
intervention by Iran’s deputy oil minister Ali Mejidi, when he
enthusiastically affirmed the perennially troubled Nabucco, a
Pipelineistan opera if there ever was one,
was back in play.

Nabucco’s idea was to bring gas to the EU via Turkey, Bulgaria,
Romania, Hungary and Austria. Bur where from? Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan were finally ruled out. It could be Azerbaijani gas,
but that requires a fortune in extra investment. The Iraqi
industry won’t be ready anytime soon. And Iran will be finally in
play only if a nuclear deal is clinched till the end of 2014, and
sanctions lifted in 2015 (all this a major ‘if’).

So in Ukraine, just like in Syria, we’re back to square one in
energy terms. The country is an economic basket case now being
hurled inside the hellish disaster capitalism pit. The details
are here.
In the end, Gazprom is likely to emerge the winner.

Confused by Syria and Ukraine? Don’t worry: just follow the
energy wars.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.