Deloitte's asia pacific economic outlook 2012

he March 2012 edition of the Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for Australia, China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand.
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he March 2012 edition of the Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for Australia, China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand.

Australia: Australia’s GDP is expected to expand by 2.5–3.0 percent through 2012. The country faces two significant economic vulnerabilities: economic headwinds from abroad that may threaten Australia’s export-dependent economy and housing prices, which may place pressure on the Australian banking sector.

India: For the last several months, India’s central bank has been torn between controlling inflation and maintaining robust economic growth. With industry increasingly worried about the high cost of capital and the manufacturing sector showing signs of stagnation, the central bank must quickly decide which of its limited options it must deploy in order to the economy keep chugging along.

Indonesia: Infrastructure development is paving the way for optimism in Indonesia’s rapidly emerging economy. Despite the risk of inflationary pressures, the country’s economic outlook remains favorable, and GDP is expected to grow by 6.5 percent this year.

Thailand: Thailand’s economy is getting back on its feet after a disastrous flood. The government is likely to step up public expenditure on reconstruction and disaster relief, which may introduce inflationary pressure during the latter part of the year. Meanwhile, the volatile external environment continues to threaten the stability of Thai exports.

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Transcript

2.
AustraliaThe looming threat of a Chinese slowdown is prices have been cooling down, falling as much as 4.8weighing on Australia’s economic outlook. percent year-over-year at the end of February 2012.Australia’s export sector is heavily dependent on Chinese Going forward, a steep fall in home prices could potentiallydemand, which is showing signs of cooling off. The mining shake up the banking sector; four of the country’s largestindustry, Australia’s main breadwinner, is expected to be banks hold almost 80 percent of domestic mortgagesparticularly affected by a slump in China’s housing market, on their books. The banking sector’s reliance on externalwhich absorbs most of its exported resources. The quarter- financing for short-term borrowing poses an additionalover-quarter pace of expansion slowed down to just 0.4 risk. Thus, potential disruptions in global markets couldpercent during the December quarter, half of what was test the domestic banking sector’s ability to withstandrecorded during the previous quarter. Annual growth shocks. Banks are already facing the pinch of tighter creditthrough 2011 was 2.3 percent. conditions abroad, which has been weighing on their profit margins. In February, the country’s four main banksExports are not the only source of vulnerability in the responded by raising mortgage rates by 6–10 basis pointsAustralian economy. Housing prices have been falling while in order to cope with higher costs of wholesale funding.unemployment has shown little improvement in recent This could exert further downward pressure on households’months. While this has dampened domestic demand, ability to borrow.the bigger risk lies in the banking sector’s exposureto the housing sector. Much of the last decade saw a Australian households remain highly indebted with loansconsistent increase in home prices supported by loose equivalent to about 150 percent of their disposablecredit conditions and government subsidies. Even during income. Thus, tighter credit conditions and stagnancythe 2008 crisis, prices stumbled slightly but regained in the job market have weighed on consumer spending.momentum on the back of the government’s generous Retail sales were almost flat during the last few months ofFirst Home Owner Boost. However, since last year, home 2011 in spite of the holiday season. This is also reflected Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 2

3.
During 2011–2012, the Australian economywill likely expand at a modest pace of 2.5–3.0percent. The biggest downside risk to thisestimate comes from a greater-than-expectedslowdown in China as authorities try totame inflation.in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Survey of consumer During 2011–2012, the Australian economy will likelysentiment, which remained subdued and increased only expand at a modest pace of 2.5–3.0 percent. Themarginally in January 2012. biggest downside risk to this estimate comes from a greater-than-expected slowdown in China as authoritiesBusiness sentiment was also below trend levels at the try to tame inflation. Developments in the Eurozonestart of 2012, but it improved slightly as the central bank and the United States will also likely influence foreignloosened policy rates last year. During the last quarter investment, commodity export prices, and overall demandof 2011, manufacturing dwindled while construction from Australia’s trading partners. Even as the economyactivity contracted by 4.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, undergoes structural changes and copes with globalfurther highlighting weak business conditions. In order to headwinds, the mining sector has stayed its course; a $34stimulate demand, the central bank cut interest rates twice billion LNG project was recently approved and will likelyin a row during its monthly policy meetings in November boost investments and exports. Thus, Australia’s miningand December. Despite the interest rate relaxation, inflation sector — its star performer — is expected to bolster theeased to 3.1 percent at the end of the December quarter, economy in the face of external headwinds.leaving room for additional loosening in case worseningglobal conditions compromise the Australian growthoutlook. Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 3

4.
ChinaPerhaps the best word to describe China’s economic ratio for commercial banks with the intention of boostingsituation is “gradual.” The economy is experiencing liquidity and credit market activity. Still, the combined dropgradually slower growth; the government is gradually in the reserve ratio of 100 basis points does not come closeeasing monetary policy; the property market bubble is to offsetting the 600 basis point increase that took placegradually deflating; and the headwinds from Europe are over the past two years in order to fight inflation. Despitegradually having a negative impact on China’s economic the small increase in inflation in January, the fight againstperformance. Certainly, the Chinese authorities are inflation has largely been a success. That is why the centralcomfortable with the term “gradual.” After all, one Chinese bank is now comfortable engaging in a gradual easing ofeconomist described the momentous changes in economic monetary policy. More is expected.policy over the past thirty years as the “gradual revolution.”In a country whose history is strewn with words such as The successful easing of monetary policy is evident by“disruptive,” “dramatic,” and “abrupt,” the word “gradual” the gradual nature of the slowdown — often known asis relatively reassuring. a “soft landing.” Indeed, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators for China actually rose inOn the other hand, things are gradually moving in the January, suggesting that prospects in the months aheadwrong direction. In January, for example, there was a are fairly good. Equity market participants evidently agree,decline in exports; a decline in the flow of foreign direct having boosted equity prices in the past few months.investment into China; a decline in manufacturing activity, Market participants are also confident that the trajectoryaccording to a survey of purchasing managers conducted of policy will be accommodative in the months ahead.by the private sector (a government survey suggested that Moreover, the president of the World Bank agrees; Bobmanufacturing activity expanded); and an increase in the Zoellick recently said that China is headed for a soft landingrate of inflation. Aside from the inflation data, all of this and indicated confidence that China would avoid a morewas due largely to the slowing of economic activity outside onerous slowdown.of China, principally in Europe. In response to this slowing,China’s central bank has twice lowered the required reserve Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 4

5.
In a year when political power will betransferred, the government is keen to avoidmajor disruption to the economy.Offsetting actions In addition, the government is showing a desire to avoid,Finally, government policymakers have signaled a or at least postpone, the turmoil that might come from thewillingness to take new action to offset the negative unwinding of imbalances. Specifically, local governmentsheadwinds facing China. For example, the government have accumulated about $1.7 trillion in debts that manyis endeavoring to boost first-time home ownership. It is analysts deem unsustainable. Moreover, a loss of revenueproviding first-time buyers with incentives in the form from weak land sales has exacerbated the problem ofof low interest rates and small down payments. This is servicing this debt. Many analysts were recently concernedat a time when the government continues its efforts to about the possibility of an imminent crisis if banks werepuncture the housing bubble and discourage speculative forced to write down these debts. Instead, the governmentactivity in the housing market. has instructed banks to roll over the local government debt, thereby postponing the day of reckoning.In addition, recent government actions have been designedto boost consumer purchasing power and alleviate As such, the threat of an imminent financial crisis is nowincome inequality. In Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, the gone, but the issue has not disappeared. The World Bankminimum wage has been substantially increased. In the president, Bob Zoellick, recently predicted a soft landinglast week of February, the minimum wage in Shanghai rose and suggested that China will have to make a number of13 percent. This follows an average 22 percent increase changes if it is to avoid problems stemming from long-in the minimum wage in 2011 in 24 major cities. The idea simmering imbalances. He was in China to introduce a newis to boost consumer spending, enable factory workers to World Bank report entitled “China 2030.” The report saysimprove their standard of living, reduce income inequality, that China’s current economic model is not sustainableand reduce the risk of social unrest. and must be changed. It calls for more privatization, more reliance on market forces, the elimination of restrictions onPutting things off internal migration, a boost to the social safety net, moreIn a year when political power will be transferred, the transparent capital markets, and better fiscal controls forgovernment is keen to avoid major disruption to the local governments, which are currently laden with debt. Iteconomy. As such, it is likely that the government will will be interesting to see whether China’s new leaders willutilize fiscal tools to boost economic activity in case the heed this call.economy faces even more severe headwinds from abroad. Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 5

6.
IndiaFor the last several months, the Indian economy the current fiscal (January–March 2012), but also thathas been torn between controlling inflation and overall growth for the fiscal year could fall short of themaintaining robust economic growth. In order to downwardly revised target of about 7 percent.control skyrocketing inflation, the central bank chose tosacrifice growth in order to rein in inflation. A 20-month Furthermore, growth in the next fiscal year could stagnateperiod of rising interest rates, which lasted until October at a “new normal” of about 6 percent, and employment2011, has slowly but surely put the brakes on economic generation could be significantly dented unless significantgrowth. And although inflation dropped to a 26-month efforts are made toward improving credit conditionslow in January, it remains to be seen if inflation will stabilize and resurrecting investments in the coming months. Theat the current level, casting doubts on whether the central central bank, in a recent announcement, affirmed thatbank can really afford to reduce interest rates at this point Indian corporate houses were not optimistic about anin time. With industry increasingly worried about the high improvement in their financial performance in the firstcost of capital and the manufacturing sector showing quarter of calendar year 2012. It should, however, besigns of stagnation, the central bank must quickly decide noted that no significant slowdown in domestic demandwhich of its limited options it must deploy in order to the and consumption is expected. Private consumptioneconomy keep chugging along. expenditure rose 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2011 compared to a year ago. Demand,Growth pains although robust, is unlikely to positively affect the books ofGDP growth in the third quarter of the current fiscal came companies given the current interest rate regime and risingin at a woeful 6.1 percent, marking a sharp drop from input costs.7.7 percent in the first quarter and 6.9 percent growthin the second quarter. Manufacturing growth slipped to Growth data from India’s eight core infrastructure sectors0.4 percent compared to 7.2 percent and 2.7 percent in paint a gloomy picture as well. The core sectors grew onlythe first and second quarters, respectively. The seventh half a percent in January, signaling that companies aresuccessive quarterly slowdown — and the slowest growth hesitating to make investments. Output improved onlyin three years — has not only triggered fears that the in four infrastructure industries, indicating that a broadeconomy will slow down further in the last quarter of industrial slowdown could be in the cards. Industrial output Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 6

7.
How India will fare this year depends heavilyon the steps the central bank takes in order tospur growth, the upcoming union budget, andthe government’s will to push throughimportant economic reforms.growth dropped to 1.8 percent in December from 5.9 percent of the budgeted target. The central governmentpercent in November. admitted that meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.6 percent of the GDP would be a “great challenge.” TheExports grew at 10 percent in January, following a government’s pledge that it would try to keep the deficitdeclining trend in the previous months. Although below 5 percent of GDP seems unlikely to be met. Thecumulative exports from April until January grew 23 central bank, in recent months, has blamed the fiscal deficitpercent, weak demand from Western markets and global for constraining monetary policy and causing inflation.political developments are likely to exert a drag on exportsin 2012. On the other hand, rising imports are exerting a Analysts ascribe part of the blame for the current economicnegative pressure on the trade deficit. situation to a retreat in foreign capital, a weak rupee, and uncertainty over government reforms in certain key areasFew positives, policy challenges like Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). How India will fare thisInflation, the barb that threatened to derail India’s growth year depends heavily on the steps the central bank takes infor several months, has been on the decline over the last order to spur growth, the upcoming union budget, and theseveral weeks. Inflation dropped to a 26-month low of government’s will to push through important6.6 percent in January after remaining above 9 percent for economic reforms.much of 2011. The fall in inflation reflects a drop in foodprices, but the impact of high input prices, which makes its Thus far in 2012, the central bank has already eased theway into inflation through the cost of manufactured goods, reserve requirements for banks, infusing liquidity into theshows no sign of dropping in the near future. Although the economy. It is likely that further liquidity could be infuseddrop in inflation has been latched on as a rallying point for into the economy after the central bank’s review meetingindustry to call on the central bank to drop interest rates, in March. Although it might be too early to expect athe central bank can far from afford to conclude that the drop in interest rates, the central bank may be compelledrecent dip in inflation signals a long-term trend. In fact, the to reduce interest rates sooner rather than later. Thecentral bank has announced that it would be premature to upcoming union budget could go a long way in makingstart reducing interest rates without seeing any abatement the central bank’s job easier as well. If policy decisions toof inflationary threats exerted by the high fiscal deficit and support infrastructure, social initiatives, and agricultureglobal energy prices. come through, and if reform-related policies are given an impetus, we could quickly see positive sentiment returningIndia’s fiscal deficit between April and January came in at to the economy, allowing the central bank some more time4.4 trillion rupees, or 105 percent of the full-year target. before it can ease interest rates.During the same period last year, the deficit stood at 58 Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 7

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IndonesiaInfrastructure development is paving the way investment to about $19 billion for the entire year. Foreignfor optimism in Indonesia. A longstanding lack of investors — especially from Singapore and regionalinfrastructure has been a significant roadblock in the economies — continue to pour money into Indonesia withcountry’s attempts to achieve its full economic potential, transportation, communication, and storage garnering thebut the Parliament has finally passed a land acquisition bill largest share of foreign inflows.that will allow the government to expedite infrastructuredevelopment. Although the bill is pending the president’s Foreign investment is expected to play a critical role inapproval and the timeliness of implementation is widely bridging Indonesia’s investment gap, as the governmentspeculated, it is likely a step in the right direction. The has been conservative with infrastructure spending in a bidnew legislation ensures speedier land acquisition for to limit its fiscal deficit. Indonesia’s infrastructure spendinginfrastructure projects and a fair sale price to landowners, is equivalent to about 4 percent of GDP and is expected toand it will likely boost private sector involvement, which rise gradually over the next few years. This is still far lesshas been kept at bay by bureaucratic inefficiencies. than India and China, which currently spend 8–10 percent. In 2012, the Indonesian government plans to boost itsEarlier this year, the country regained its investment grade spending by 19 percent to $18 billion in an attempt torating for the first time since the 1997 Asian crisis. This improve roads, airports, and railways, which will likelywill allow Indonesia to borrow cheaply and attract more enhance the outlook for private investment as well.foreign investment into the economy. In fact, recent datareleased by the Investment Coordination Board indicates The government is also thinking about reducing fuelthat despite global risk aversion, foreign investment in subsidies and redirecting the resulting fiscal savingsIndonesia stayed its course in 2011. During the fourth toward infrastructure development. Energy subsidies arequarter of 2011, total investment realization increased currently estimated to account for nearly 20 percent of19.2 percent from a year ago. Foreign investment the government’s spending, compared to just 3 percentsurged 25.2 percent year-over-year to over $5 billion attributed to infrastructure. The Parliament has notduring the fourth quarter, taking the cumulative foreign approved such a plan yet, but government officials say that Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 8

9.
Despite the risk of inflationary pressures,Indonesia’s economic outlook is favorable.The economy expanded by 6.5 percent in 2011,driven primarily by investment anddomestic consumption.the hikes will be in place by April. It is widely speculated domestic economic environment will likely ensure a steadythat if energy subsidies are removed, oil prices may climb flow of foreign direct investment during the year.by as much as 33 percent, thus exerting inflationarypressures. According to consensus estimates, the Indonesian economy is expected to grow at a pace of 6.5 percent inInflation has been continuing its downward trend in the 2012; the government is chasing a target of 6.7 percentpast few months, supporting the central bank’s recent growth during the year. While this target may seemmonetary policy cuts. In February, inflation eased to 3.6 ambitious, it is not entirely unattainable. Many believepercent, which is well within the central bank’s target that Indonesia — Asia’s largest economy after China andrange of 3.5–5.5 percent for 2012. The central bank, India — has come of age. In spite of the global economicwhich seems dovish in its outlook, expects inflation to turmoil that stalled some of its regional peers, Indonesia’sdecline further through the year. However, a policy-led hike 2011 economic expansion was the fastest since the 1990s,in energy prices could threaten price stability in the further highlighting the economy’s resilience.broader economy. Indonesia is a fast-emerging economy whose trueDespite the risk of inflationary pressures, Indonesia’s potential remains to be unlocked. The biggest challengeeconomic outlook is favorable. The economy expanded in achieving full potential is posed by the lack of adequateby 6.5 percent in 2011, driven primarily by investment infrastructure, which is more often the result of red tapeand domestic consumption. The country’s 240 million rather than a lack of funds. Of late, the government hasconsumers and an abundance of natural resources are taken symbolic steps to remove bureaucratic delays andexpected to continue to attract investment in 2012. incentivize investment, underlining its commitment toIts limited reliance on exports may keep the economy improving infrastructure. However, actual implementationrelatively insulated from external developments, but volatile of the proposed legislations is itself entangled inportfolio investments will remain at risk. Nevertheless, its bureaucracy, and it remains to be seen how far thenewly acquired investment grade rating and a favorable government can go in achieving its economic targets. Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 9

10.
ThailandThe most devastating flood in over five decades a host of challenges, but Thailand’s economy is expectedinundated over two-thirds of Thailand, claimed to bounce back in 2012.more than 700 lives, and caused economic damagesin excess of 328 billion baht. As a result, the Thai The Thai Board of Investment (BOI) revealed that foreigneconomy contracted for the first time since 2009 direct investment increased in January by a staggering 60and shrank 9 percent year-over-year in the fourth percent compared to the previous year. The BOI receivedquarter of 2011. Manufacturing and exports were investment promotion requests from foreign investors forseverely hampered, and Thailand’s GDP grew by a modest 80 projects valued at 25 billion baht, of which 37 were for0.1 percent in 2011. new investments. As several auto sector manufacturers resumed operations, Thailand’s automobile production andManufacturing units, including textiles, automobiles, sales rose sharply in January. While part of the increase canand electronics were forced to stall operations. Ebbing be attributed to base effects, the outlook for the sector ismanufacturing output was accompanied by a significant positive for the coming months.decline in exports. Global supply chains, particularly in theautomobile and electronics sectors, experienced major In addition, industrial confidence and consumer confidencedisruptions. In addition, household consumption and rose over the past two months as factory operations andcapital formation fell 3.0 and 3.6 percent, respectively domestic demand increased. With inflation expected toin Q4 2011. Finally, declining tourism led to a lull in the remain relatively benign, the Bank of Thailand may adoptrestaurants and hotels sector. an accommodative monetary policy. As a result, interest rates will likely be held at 3.0 percent, allowing businessesHowever, the worst seems to be over. Several industries, ample opportunity to kick-start the economy.including the auto sector, have staged a remarkablerecovery. As the year progresses, reconstruction spending Thailand’s exports are also likely to rise in the first quarterand improved domestic consumption will likely bolster the of 2012 thanks to several Free Trade Agreements withThai economy. A weak external environment could present Southeast Asian nations, which are becoming the country’s Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 10

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A fragile U.S. economy and the debt crisis inEurope are casting a shadow on the Thaiexport sector’s growth prospects.largest export market. However, the consequences of weak it maintained its annual growth projection for 2012 atexternal economic conditions may be felt as early as the 4.5–5.0 percent.second quarter. A fragile U.S. economy and the debt crisisin Europe are casting a shadow on the Thai export sector’s Thailand’s economy is getting back on its feet. As factoriesgrowth prospects. Furthermore, mounting optimism become fully operational, employment and industrialaround growth prospects in Thailand resulted in a surge output will likely improve. Private consumption could driveof capital inflows. Thailand’s currency has strengthened to growth when the minimum wage hike takes effect on Aprila two-month high after international investors increased 1, 2012. The government is also likely to step up publictheir holdings of Thai assets. A stronger currency could expenditure on reconstruction and disaster relief. As acompromise some growth in the export sector. result, the Thai economy may experience higher inflation during the latter part of the year. Meanwhile, the volatileOn the downside, rising oil prices and recent bombings external environment remains a significant challenge. Ifcould drag down GDP growth in Thailand. The tourism the global economy stalls, developed countries along withindustry will likely be hit hardest, at least in the short run. many Asian economies may experience slower growth, inWhether or not businesses will take a cautious stance and effect, lowering demand for Thai exports. On the otherhold back investments in the coming months is unclear. hand, improved external demand may bode wellThe University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) for growth.projected that the bomb incident and rising oil prices willdrag down GDP growth in the first quarter. However, Asia Pacific Economic Outlook — March 2012 11