A claim that Catholics could soon outnumber Protestants in the Six
Counties has been highlighted by nationalist parties to convince those
with a unionist background to feel “at home” in a new, united Ireland.

Paul Nolan, a researcher who has produced the ‘Northern Ireland Peace
Monitor’ reports for the Stormont Executive, said he believes the North
is undergoing significant demographic change.

Nolan, formerly of Queen’s University Belfast, classifies the population
of the Six Counties simply as ‘Protestant’, ‘Catholic’ and ‘Other’, and
predicts Catholics will soon by in a majority.

He points to census figures from 2011 which put the Protestant
population at 48 per cent, Catholics at 45 per cent, and 7 per cent
Other. More recent figures from 2016 show 44 per cent of working age
adults are Catholic, 40 per cent Protestant and 16 per cent are Other.

He concluded that Catholics will be the majority religious denomination
on the centenary of partition.

“Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation
on the centenary of the state (sic) where we actually have a state that
has a Catholic majority,” he told the BBC’s ‘The View’.

His analysis disregarded the growing ‘Other’ group that some political
commentators have said will intervene to prevent any move towards Irish
unity based on demographics. He also did not make any differentiation
for the Polish and other immigrant groups who now make up 5% of the
Catholic population, and 10% of those of working age.

But he pointed out that being Catholic does not necessarily mean being
nationalist. Although 45 per cent identified in the 2011 census as being
from a Catholic background, only 25 per cent claimed an exclusively
Irish identity. Inculcation into the British establishment means that
many Irish Catholics have come to identify with British rule, at least
in part.

Falling birth rates, lengthening lifespans and fluctuating immigration
and emigration also complicate statistical predictions of a demographic
shift towards nationalism. British officials once boasted that it would
never arise, because the process of normalisation of British rule would
ensure the issue would have faded from view.

But the statistic for schoolchildren is hard to ignore: they are now 51%
Catholic, 37% Protestant, and 12% Other.

Nolan suggested unionists could do more to persuade people to support
the union with Britain: “In other words people who do not identify with
the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their
support for a UK government framework and that’s a sizeable proportion
of Catholics provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism
or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as
nationalists.”

Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald said unionists “have to be at home
in a new Ireland”.

“So, yes, let’s have the discussion,” she said. “As far as I’m concerned
nothing is taboo. Let’s talk about the flag, let’s talk about the
anthem, let’s talk about every nuance and every aspect of Irish life
north and south.”

DUP politician Christopher Stalford said he would never leave Ireland,
even in the case of reunification.

He told the programme: “We need to show that you can be British and
Irish at the same time”.

However, said he felt British rather than Irish. Reacting to Mr
Stalford’s comments, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said unionism needed to
“feel comfortable” in “the type of Ireland I want to see”.

“If you want to build a new Ireland we have to engage positively in a
way that recognises Christopher’s Britishness.

“We have always said the Good Friday Agreement should endure beyond a
border poll. Unionism would be protected. It isn’t about joining a
Catholic country anymore. We should try to convince each other of the
best possible way forward.

“I’m not in interested in defeating anyone or raking up the past and
dealing with old stories of oppression. I’m not sure I’ll ever convince
Christopher, but... we can convince enough people in time. I would say
to Christopher - this is your home as much as mine.”

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