Tropics roundup for Sunday

This storm continues to move quickly to the west at more than 20 mph, and as it does so its forecast is becoming a bit more clear.

Based upon the official track forecast, Ernesto now appears bound for the Yucatan Peninsula by early Wednesday, possibly as a hurricane, before moving into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday. Unlike we’ve seen with some storms this year (cough, cough Debby) confidence in Ernesto’s track over the next few days is increasing.

Beyond that there remain questions, however.

The chance of the storm having a significant effect on the upper Texas coast is now quite low, although we cannot rule it out because it’s not entirely clear Ernesto will continue moving west, or west-northwest in the Bay of Campeche. The UKMET and GFDL models, shown below, favor a more northerly turn toward Texas.

Some track models for Ernesto. (Skeetobite)

While these are respected forecast models, the more consistent global models such as the GFS and European, continue to take the storm into Mexico, south of the Texas border, and that continues to look like the most plausible solution.

The good news is that, due to wind shear and some dry air in the storm’s vicinity, Ernesto is having a very difficult time remaining organized, and its structure has not improved. Forecasters believe some strengthening is possible before it reaches the Yucatan, but Ernesto should remain to the south of the very warm waters in the Northwest Caribbean Sea.

There is a chance that, after crossing the Yucatan, Ernesto could strengthen again in the Bay of Campeche, especially if it remains over water for some time.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE

Florence is now the more impressive storm with 60 mph winds, but it’s moving westward into some dry air over the next couple of days (shown in red below) that should choke away some of its intensity.

Water vapor image for the central Atlantic. (NOAA)

Forecasters still expect Florence to degenerate into a non-tropical system in about five or six days as it moves west-northwest across the Atlantic, but if it holds together for a week it could find more favorable waters closer to North America.