Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Sunday, 7 February 2010

Still time for it all to go pear-shaped, but the day is perfect to this point. As predicted by the Elo ratings, Birmingham City were one goal better than Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Chelsea's two goal margin of victory was also exactly as predicted. The Elo ratings to this point, at least at the Premier League level, are proving to be far more accurate and profitable than I would have thought possible. As I cautioned yesterday though, I have a feeling that as the season enters its silly season, predictions may not be quite so accurate.Football Elite still have one match to go today, but after short-listing Rennes yesterday, a 4-2 winner at 3.25, they followed up today with Recommended Bets of Mainz '05 (2.3) v Borussia Moenchengladbach and Real Mallorca (2.34) v Villarreal who both obliged as 1-0 winners. From the short-list, there was another winner with Atalanta (2.36) beating Bari, also by 1-0. Matt certainly finds the unders with his recommended bets with 75% (27 of 36) finishing that way. Since I subscribed, the picks overall are up after 5% commission, with the short-list bets up 79.84 to a 10 point stake, but the recommended bets down 50.90.My Rugby Union bet also came in with Les Bleus beating the Scots as expected.So on to the Super Bowl. My numbers have a narrow, 32-31, win for the Indianapolis Colts which suggests a bet on the over 55.5 at 1.96 is value, along with the New Orleans Saints '+4.5 at 2.0, or straight up at 2.88. However, I won't be risking much pre-game on these selections. While these ratings might be good for a regular season game, the Super Bowl is anything but a normal game. I shall be trading in-play, looking for the Saints to gain the upper-hand early, with the Colts coming back as the game unfolds. At 2.88, the Saints are value, but with a view to trading out if the price drops to odds-on.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.