All these people making definitive statements are just pulling globs of shit out of their ass and typing random thoughts on reddit with their dookie covered hands. Nobody knows what the fuck he is thinking.

Lol good luck with that. Moving from 12 to 6 will not cost the Bills 3 1st round picks. Rather than both firsts from Bills this year, I like getting 12, a couple day 2 picks, and their 2019 first because I think they will not be good next year.

People keep putting too much stock into the number. Sure, 6 isn't as valuable in a regular draft, but if there's a chance to still grab a franchise QB at 6, it's worth as much as anyone is willing to pay for a franchise QB.

This is kind of what the whole deal is about. Pretty sure Ballard has some targets in mind. When it gets to our pick, if a few of those targets remain and he can move back and still get one of them, AND collect something hefty, he might just do it.

And if someone offers a ton of compensation, he'd consider it.

Moving down to Buffalo's spot without all those firsts just doesn't seem likely to me unless Ballard has 6 players he'd be happy with. We all could be wrong, and he might take less, but at this point we have a ton of ammunition in this draft. If we get more, great. If not... sitting at 6 and having 3 #2s should go a long way to improving our team.

Oh I agree with that for sure. We have the draft stock to improve tremendously. More would be great, but we're good as is. I don't want to move from 6 for basically peanuts. Teams historically will overpay for a chance at a QB. That's what we should be holding out for.

Yeah, I agree. I'm sure the Dolphins or Cards (which I don't think we will trade with considering Ballard still wants one of his top 8) will offer this and next years first, plus more, to move up and I'm sure next years first of either team be higher than 22. Only way Bills can beat that offer is by offering three firsts and then some

In the same way that teams over price their players because they would much rather have that player than get fair trade value, this theoretical trade down is priced so we'd have to be blown away to move down. The idea of getting 3 firsts is crazy and unrealistic... that's the point. We don't want to move down but if the bills were crazy enough to want to move up that's what we're saying it would take.

I'm astounded that so many people think we should get three first rounders for trading back from 6 . That would be perhaps the most unprecedented trade back I've ever seen. To move up to 1 or 2, sure, I've seen that, but for pick 6? For the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft? Anything's possible, but it would be pretty crazy.

It's not that I think we can, but should we take less? Moving to the MIA or BUF spot means losing 1 of the "blue chips" from the class. Given the desperation of the QB needy teams, stick and pick Chubb/Nelson/Barkley/Roquon.

Personally, I hope we just get BUF's 18 1sts and another pick. Roquon or Edmunds should still be there for us.

Exactly. If they don't want to pay, fine. We aren't under an obligation to offer a "fair" deal. Moving out of range of top tier prospects is a big drop for us, it's fine to ask for a ton for a team wanting their franchise QB.

Exactly which means they want out... duh. /S But seriously this is a win/win situation where we will hold pat if QB's fly off the board getting us a top non QB pick or if not, our potential trade value goes up if and teams want to land one of those QB's.

I think it'll depend because there is a very good chance that they all get snatched up in the first 5 picks. Especially if the Broncos trade down like they want. Them announcing that could be devastating for us

Broncos take a qb. Guaranteed. The entire draft process has always been and always will be a bunch of smokescreen. Elway knows Keenum isn't the answer. His perceived lack of interest in a qb is an attempt to avoid someone jumping them in a trade with Cleveland. If I'm wrong, PM me your address. I'll send you a hundo

Damn it! I was expecting this reply. I'm not as smart as I pretend to be. Crazy first round. Glad my Colts decided to play it smart rather than sexy. Nelson is a bowling ball who will do wonders for the run game as well as help keep Luck on the field. Can't wait to see what tonight brings.

While we’re hung up on finding a landing spot for all the quarterbacks, I’d remind you of four things at this pick: A) I don’t know if Buffalo loves Allen; B) but I hear they love his ability to throw it through the lake effect winds and snow; C) Allen is a garrulous, genial version of Jim Kelly, a rifle-armed work in progress the fans in western New York will love; and D) I think this trade fits both teams because I’m not sure the Colts would demand both Bills’ first-round picks in return. In fact, because of the strength of the second round, I could see Colts GM Chris Ballard valuing the 53rd and 56th picks collectively higher than the 22nd pick in this draft. So, 12, 53, 56 and, say, 96 for six? Could be equitable. It would leave the Bills with their second of two first-rounders."

I may be biased, but we can probably do much better than 2 second rounders and a 4th.... Ballard isn’t moving unless we’re fleecing. That much is pretty much clear after the whole “8 non QB studs” comment.

I think you're right that we could do better, especially in this scenario. They'd be willing to overpay since the only 1st round graded qb's left are Allen and Jackson in this scenario, and I don't think they want Jackson since they just got rid of Tyrod

But you're thinking about "how far" we're moving in the wrong way. Think about it this way, moving from 1 to 5 is a MUCH larger move than moving down from 21 to 25, which is a much bigger move than moving from 41 to 45. The farther down the swapped picks are, the smaller the difference.

Draft charts aren't perfect, but they're really good to analyze this situation. We moved down 600 points (3 is valued at 2200 and 6 is valued at 1600) and got three seconds. Here, King suggests that by moving down 400 points (12 is 1200 points), we would get 2 seconds and R4 P1. It's not the greatest trade, but it's not unreasonable.

The Jets trade was +340 + X for us (where X is a second round pick next year that will probably be 400-500). This trade is +416. It's not quite as profitable as the Jets trade, but the Jets are assured a top 3 QB choice while Buffalo is trading up for the fourth choice in this scenario. It also might be attractive to Ballard because it's a supposedly deep second round, and this would give him 5 picks there (P4, P5, P17, P21, and P24 in the second round).

Yeah I don't think the draft chart is great in this situation, it excludes a lot of important nuance. It doesn't consider what we're possibly passing on in this draft or what Buffalo would stand to gain. The Jets trade was worth it for them because theres a good chance only 1 QB will be off the board by then, max 2, that means they only needed 3 guys they're comfortable with, cool.

Ballard has said theres 8 or whatever premium players in this draft but I'm willing to bet some are more premium than others and theres a large run of teams from 6-12 that are gonna soak many of these up. Therefore we need significant compensation to move down to 12, what I feel goes beyond that points calculation. A trade with Buffalo is obviously happening on draft day because 6 is too high for Buffalo to know who's going to be there, but if theres someone they feel is a franchise QB two 1st and a 2nd seems entirely reasonable with what teams have paid in previous drafts.

This could be a case of what we need to move just plain being too much for Buffalo but we have the leverage here. Buffalo are the ones who desperately need a QB. We don't desperately need to move out of 6

A trade with Buffalo is obviously happening on draft day because 6 is too high for Buffalo to know who's going to be there, but if theres someone they feel is a franchise QB two 1st and a 2nd seems entirely reasonable with what teams have paid in previous drafts.

FWIW, I think 12, 22, and 56 is the limit but still within reason (it would be +750). It's still more capital than anyone's given up since RGIII (and for the 3rd QB off the board at best), but it's not absolutely insane. I've seen people wanting 12, 22 and their 2019 first, and that's just over the top.

I think it costs them pick 12, one second round pick and next years 1st. If moving from p3 to p6 costs 3-2nd rounders, than p6 to p12 needs at least 2 firsts and a second, if not 2 of both. I think we’d ask for picks 12, 53, (either 22 or next years 1st) and next years 2nd. Think that a trade like that would be considered fair