Some goals are easier than others. For NHL scouts, delivering multiple players of exceptional quality from one draft is something that may come along once or twice in a career. It's way too early to even be discussing it, but the Edmonton Oilers 2010 draft group keeps doing things to get noticed. It really has been an exceptional start to the season for the top 5 selections. Stand back, we don't know how big this thing is going to get in the next 5 years.

I believe it takes 5 full seasons to be able to get a good look at an NHL draft. Even then, you can sometimes be waiting on a goalie or college kid. An example: Devan Dubnyk was drafted in 2004 (6 long years ago) and is just now getting his chance to start two NHL games in a row (assuming he plays today).

However, there are early returns on a draft that can spell trouble.

A FEW EXAMPLES FROM 2003

Marc Pouliot was injured before the draft at the top prospects game (Phaneuf drilled him). In the summer of 2003 he got hurt at the Canadian WJC camp in Calgary (hip) and that had a major impact on his 18-year old season. It also hurt his performance at the Oilers rookie camp just two months after being drafted. In November 2003 he suffered an abdominal injury and a broken wrist.

Colin McDonald had some questions coming out of the draft with regard to offense, and early in his NCAA career it looked like he wasn't going to have enough offense to play as a regular in the NHL. That's still true these years later.

JF Jacques was selected for his size and speed. He did not miss a lot of games in junior and when he turned pro it looked for all the world like the Oilers had a useful Coke machine. Injuries have derailed his career.

Mikhail Youkov was taken on a hunch. Scott Howson in 2003: “He’s a Russian playing in Sweden so he wasn’t eligible to play in any of the tournaments over there in Sweden or Russia. He played in the elite league, his father’s a coach in Sweden and that’s why he’s there. He’s a big strong guy that skates very well so we thought that, perhaps, he may be a little bit of a sleeper and we decided to step up and take him in the third round.”

Zack Stortini was taken very late in the third round. They liked his character and heart, plus he'd already established himself as a leader in Sudbury.

Five months after the 2003 draft, we knew Marc Pouliot would lose much of his 18-year old season to various injuries, the concerns about Colin McDonald's scoring abilities were confirmed, Youkov was another blind pick (the most famous being Alexei Mikhnov). We knew those things 5 months after the 2003 draft. They are tells, just like playing fast when you hold a good hand or calling a girl 20 minutes after your date.

The Edmonton Oilers under Kevin Prendergast had a poor draft in 2003, made worse by the fact that it was so rich and deep. Some of that was bad luck (Pouliot was a first rounder on most pre-draft lists) but McDonald, Jacques, Youkov and Stortini were reach picks.

FAST FORWARD TO 2010

The 2010 draft is also 5 months old, and the top 5 selections are absolutely kicking ass.

Taylor Hall: Exceptional talent is learning at the very highest level of the game as a teenager. After 18gp, he's 3-5-8 -9 with the Oilers. Stamkos was 18gp, 2-3-5 -7 to begin his NHL career. I'm not saying he's Stamkos, but would suggest that Hall's progress thus far this season--considering the quality of the team he's playing for--is completely reasonable.

Tyler Pitlick: Took some time to adjust to the WHL's style of play, he's 3-3-6 +3 in his last three games. For the season, Pitlick is 17gp, 7-11-18 +2 and those numbers should rise now that he's playing better. Pitlick is a very important prospect in the Oilers system, because he can play center and has a nice range of skills. If there's one thing we should be looking for in the next few months in regard to the 2010 draft, it's strong boxcar numbers from Pitlick.

Martin Marincin: 23gp, 8-17-25 +2 in the WHL. He's still posting offense (1-6-7 in his last 7 games) but is a -7 for the month of November. The club is 2-5 in that stretch, so he's not the only one having a tough time of it. I found Oil Change 2.0 interesting for lots of reasons, but one of them was the exchange with regard to Pitlick versus Marincin fascinating. MacGregor did the right thing (selecting the bpa instead of picking for need) but there's every chance Marincin will end up being the better player based on early returns.

Curtis Hamilton: The young man is having a big season. In November, he's 7gp, 4-6-10 +9 and his overall numbers (22gp, 12-17-29 +22) have him tied for 16th in WHL scoring. He is 2nd in the entire league in plus minus, and like Pitlick represents a Godsend in terms of position and style. A rugged LW with skill is an organizational need and there's every chance he'll be lining up one a depth chart with Hall andPääjärvi down the line. He is the one player in the top 5 we need to worry over in terms of injury, as his history pre-draft makes Pouliot look like Charles Atlas (Atlas in the 1950's, not Atlas today).

Ryan Martindale: What in the wide world of sports is going on here? Ryan Martindale is third in OHL scoring!! Based on draft pedigree that's an overshoot of mammoth proportions and we can start to wonder openly about getting a draft steal at number 61. 24gp, 17-21-38 +20 and he plays on the number one line in the league (with Prince and Toffoli). He's rocked November (9gp, 8-10-18 +10) and another month like that one and he'll lead the league in points as Christmas. Even better, he's only 5-5-10 on the PP (1-1-2 SH) so a lot of his points are coming at even strength (24gp, 11-15-26). This is a very, very goood sign. The only negative is that the entire line is ripping it up so we're not sure who's driving the bus. Toronto once drafted Laurie Boschman without realizing the key to the line was Brian Propp on LW. Propp went 5 spots after Boschman and delivered a much stronger career.

That's the top 5, but there is more from this draft. Brandon Davidson in Regina (24gp, 3-17-20 -10) is having a strong season despite the -10 (there are two defenders with worse minus numbers) and is a player to watch. Kellen Jones was in a slump playing in the NCAA (12gp, 4-3-7 -2) but scored a goal last night in a win over Harvard.

Two things about this draft:

It's extremely early and there are no conclusions to be drawn other than the arrows are pointing in the right direction for the top 5 plus Davidson.

That's one helluva start for all 5 of them. Splendid.

Stu MacGregor, you really are a magnificent bastard.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

I agree that LA has a lot of young talent that they're going to have to mortgage to go-for-it. I also think that Brayden Schenn is a 1st or 2nd line Centre akin to Patrick Sharp.

But we'd be giving up our two best players for unproven youngsters. The Oilers might be better served doing a deal with LA that look something like (Penner + Cogliano or Brule + a 2nd rounder) for Forbort and Schenn. Then making a deal with Washington that looks something like Hemsky and Dubnyk for Alzner and Varlamov.

I don't mind the concept behind your proposed trade, but giving away two top-75 NHL players for prospects could be a real nut-stomp. If LA threw Simmonds into the mix as well it would look feasible.

I like what Penner brings to the table. When Penner is on his games he free's up whole lot of ice and he can't be stopped when driving to the net.....but there is one problem. Every other team knows this.

It appears that the common knowledge among the opposition players is that unless they want to pay on the scoreboard and along the boards they are best just to let him do his thing.(Don't wake a sleeping bear).

Again, I like Penner but I don't think we can afford a guy that is 6'4, 240lbs and throws fewer checks than Hemsky. Then again, tonight he'll look amazing....thus refeuling my man crush.

Woodguy: If I'm dealing Penner, then the weakness at D should be addressed. If the club can acquire a quality prospect who will arrive next fall or 2012 fall then maybe that's good enough, but the number one item is getting a quality defense prospect you don't have to wait 4 years to insert into the roster.

And then I think you need something for the current team. Penner is a very useful player having a good season (again) so it is only reasonable to assume there's going to be a big falloff once he leaves.

Getting someone like Simmonds might help ease the blow a little.

Simmonds is about as much of an untouchable as LA has.

LA isn't going to fill a hole on the roster and create another one in the process.

Lombardi is NOT Tambellowe.

I'd argue, at age 22, Simmonds is already a better hockey player than Penner and you want LA to throw in Forbort?

These trades are all hypothetical and they serve to poll Oilers fans on what they think is a progressive way to re-build the franchise for long-term competitiveness. Myself, or anyone else proposing these trades shouldn't be deluded over the fact that ST might glance at this blog for inspiration.

To your point, no, I doubt LA has an immediate use for Cogs, Brule, or motorcycles for cheetahs. But these assets DO have value. In LA's case they might find utility in Brule as a 4th line C who will replace Handzus when his contract expires. And if the 31st or 32nd overall pick doesn't have value to an NHL franchise then I'm completely missing the point.

Cogs, Brule, and fish bicycles don't have much in the way of value, in and of themselves, but they are all attractive assets that can increase the value of an offer to obtain the right assets in return.

These trades are all hypothetical and they serve to poll Oilers fans on what they think is a progressive way to re-build the franchise for long-term competitiveness. Myself, or anyone else proposing these trades shouldn't be deluded over the fact that ST might glance at this blog for inspiration.

To your point, no, I doubt LA has an immediate use for Cogs, Brule, or motorcycles for cheetahs. But these assets DO have value. In LA's case they might find utility in Brule as a 4th line C who will replace Handzus when his contract expires. And if the 31st or 32nd overall pick doesn't have value to an NHL franchise then I'm completely missing the point.

Cogs, Brule, and fish bicycles don't have much in the way of value, in and of themselves, but they are all attractive assets that can increase the value of an offer to obtain the right assets in return.

penner is 6'4", 240 lb winger who scored 30+ goals on a last place team and looks like he'll score 30+ this year (while again playing on a terrible team)... he actually plays defence, doesn't EVER get hurt and doesn't have a "team killing" cap hit or length left on his contract

if penner can keep up his 30+ goal pace, he will be a very valuable commodity at the deadline.... although i do agree that he wouldn't fetch schenn by himself (even though i don't think schenn is going to be much of a player at all), penner would get forbort *easily* though

Plus all of the guys who tried and failed in LA. Robitaille won his Stanley elsewhere, but I believe he's in management there now and that would be terrific for him. Maybe they'll bring back the triple crown line and Vachon and Hrudey to celebrate.

There were a few old Rangers in the stands G7 1994. Rod Gilbert, for sure. I always thought that was a nice thing, for those guys to come back and see what they'd missed.

Plus all of the guys who tried and failed in LA. Robitaille won his Stanley elsewhere, but I believe he's in management there now and that would be terrific for him. Maybe they'll bring back the triple crown line and Vachon and Hrudey to celebrate.

There were a few old Rangers in the stands G7 1994. Rod Gilbert, for sure. I always thought that was a nice thing, for those guys to come back and see what they'd missed.

I'm not sure they can take out the Wings unless they get that #1LW.

Thing is, they're $5.7M under the cap which at the deadline would allow them to add anyone they like.

I agree with a lot of what you said in this thread, but I think you are under valuing Penner (I may be under valuing Simmonds, but Penner for Simmonds straight up is not a win)

Most NHL teams track scoring chances and Penner has proven over the last few years that when he is on the ice, the puck moves the right way.

I also think that once MBS has 5 years worth of picks under his belt, you'll see the talent stock pile like it has in LA.

The players starting to challenge for spots are still Pendergrast's, except for the 3 first rounders.

L.T,

If you want help next year on the D, than LA isn't the place to look, but Forbort is what this team doesn't have in the pipe.

I think you can address short term D help for next year trading Big Sexy in the summer. I am among those who think that his value with only 1 year left on his contract is much greater than 2 given the injury history.

Thing is, they're $5.7M under the cap which at the deadline would allow them to add anyone they like.

Soooo, if the Kings NEED that #1 LW to get anywhere in the playoffs, and we have Penner under contract through to the end of '11-'12, doesn't that imply that we're trading from a position of strength?

Who else do you suggest are going to be looking to deal a quality LW near the deadline? Maybe Florida, Minnesota, or the NYI? Maybe Calgary? Aside from Iginla who has a burdensome contract, there isn't much to pick from there.

With Hemsky and Penner (maybe Souray, too) we'll have two of the top assets to deal to a whole number of teams in line who will be keen to add them.

I agree with a lot of what you said in this thread, but I think you are under valuing Penner (I may be under valuing Simmonds, but Penner for Simmonds straight up is not a win)

Most NHL teams track scoring chances and Penner has proven over the last few years that when he is on the ice, the puck moves the right way.

I also think that once MBS has 5 years worth of picks under his belt, you'll see the talent stock pile like it has in LA.

The players starting to challenge for spots are still Pendergrast's, except for the 3 first rounders.

L.T,

If you want help next year on the D, than LA isn't the place to look, but Forbort is what this team doesn't have in the pipe.

I think you can address short term D help for next year trading Big Sexy in the summer. I am among those who think that his value with only 1 year left on his contract is much greater than 2 given the injury history.

You are seriously under valuing Simmonds.

Simmonds, Zeus and Ponikarovsky play the toughest competition for LA by a wide margin.

Scoring chances are nice and all but stopping the other team from scoring is even better.

Since they have actually scored roughly the same number of points and since Simmonds, who is only 22, hits like a truck and wants to stay in LA, I would think Simmonds has more value than a 28 year old who is 18 months away from UFA status and likely won't re-sign in Edmonton.

Maybe that's just me, but I'm guessing Lombardi could figure it out too.

Thing is, they're $5.7M under the cap which at the deadline would allow them to add anyone they like.

They don't need Penner, Iginla or any other wingers of that callibre, what they need is Brad Richards, once Dallas is forced to trade him. Schenn could be included in a sign and trade.

L.A. might have the best assets of all the contending teams to pull that one off. Stoll/Handzus are not good enough 2nd line centres, they are both 3rd liners for a championship callibre team, and Kopitar isn't that great of a 1st to make up the difference and Schenn is still unproven.

I will add Penner is a better fit than Iggy, because you would have Smyth/Iggy making $13.25 mill cap hit for not only 2 wingers, but players who are on the downside of their careers.Iggy also has an extra year which could complicate thing for signing their young stars.

Richards,Benn for Schenn,Simmonds,Stoll, Forbort & a pick. Sign and trade of course.

L.A. would get another top centre,that plays the point on the p.p. and has a good 2 way game to replace/upgrade stoll & a cheap l.w with 1 1/2 elc years left, that has size and skill.

Dallas is giving up 1 cheap player but getting back a bunch of prospect, for a player they might not be able to sign anyways, Ericson/Neal are left wingers, so they are dealing from depth. They would then have Ribero,Schenn & Stoll @ centre, good wingers and upgraded their "d"/farm system.

Never mind DSF, he's always come across as being an A-Hole but he does bring up good points to discuss about. I believe Penner is a good trade bait at the trade deadline. I certainly believe that if the Kings (or any team for that matter) is in a position to push for the cup they will trade a player like Simmonds or draft picks for a chance to win the cup. Now if the race is very close than I don't think they would.

Teams that will be pushing for the cup are: Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit and Los Angeles (not much from the west).
Other than Detroit, I can see the other teams make play for dealing for a chance to win it all.

A good example is Edmonton over paying for Roloson for their Stanley cup run in 06. Yeah it came down to the wire but Lowe knew he had a good pieces of the puzzle, something the Oilers never remotely had prior to that year.

Teams are willing to give up big value for a chance for the cup... getting a chance doesn't happen very often for a GM unless your name is Ken Holland, do there will be GMs that will make the big push.

Scoring chances are nice and all but stopping the other team from scoring is even better.

Since they have actually scored roughly the same number of points and since Simmonds, who is only 22, hits like a truck and wants to stay in LA, I would think Simmonds has more value than a 28 year old who is 18 months away from UFA status and likely won't re-sign in Edmonton.

Maybe that's just me, but I'm guessing Lombardi could figure it out too.

That was some sweet cherry picking. Maybe you should think about what the discrepancy means, and maybe even try applying context.

Context is the buzzword applied to self appointed mathletes when their ox is gored.

There are many layers of context that can be applied in virtually any situation.

I am sure the one you're referring to would be Penner's GAON/60 being the product of playing on a a bad team?

Fair enough.

I merely was responding to one WG who saw much value in Penner because he was responsible for the Oilers outshooting the opposition while he's on the ice.

Unfortunately, the opposition is outscoring the Oilers while he's on the ice, at least according to the esteemed Mr. Desjardins at Behind the Net.

Is there some other context you wanted to explore?

You lost me the moment you called context a "buzzword." That may be the most ignorant statement I have come across since the day my sister-in-law asked; "If Canada is North America does that make the United States South America?"

Why don't you try grasping the implications of those apparently contradictory statistics instead of just pointing to them as though they somehow make your point?

You pose an interesting question: at what point of the season, or year, could you obtain the greatest return for a quality player like Penner?

Is it early in the season, at the mid-point just after the holidays, or near to the trade deadline when competitive teams feel they can mortgage some of the future to go for it now.

IMO I think the greatest value for selling teams occurs right around the All-Star break, but once in a while you see teams pay through the nose right at the deadline. I would assume that a lot of these deals are discussed from December onwards (like Kovalchuk's), but some are last-minute shots at making a run for it (Pittsburgh's deal for Hossa a few years back).

Tambo should certainly have a high asking price for Penner. DSF disagrees with me, and pretty much anybody else, but any good negotiator sets the bar high (which I think should be Brayden Schenn), and then works it to the point where, playing multiple offers, makes the best deal for the club if it makes sense.

This is why I feel Tambo overvalued the market for Souray this summer, ditto for Burke in Toronto with Kaberle. I think both Souray and Kaberle will attract some interest come Jan / Feb.

You pose an interesting question: at what point of the season, or year, could you obtain the greatest return for a quality player like Penner?

Is it early in the season, at the mid-point just after the holidays, or near to the trade deadline when competitive teams feel they can mortgage some of the future to go for it now.

IMO I think the greatest value for selling teams occurs right around the All-Star break, but once in a while you see teams pay through the nose right at the deadline. I would assume that a lot of these deals are discussed from December onwards (like Kovalchuk's), but some are last-minute shots at making a run for it (Pittsburgh's deal for Hossa a few years back).

Tambo should certainly have a high asking price for Penner. DSF disagrees with me, and pretty much anybody else, but any good negotiator sets the bar high (which I think should be Brayden Schenn), and then works it to the point where, playing multiple offers, makes the best deal for the club if it makes sense.

This is why I feel Tambo overvalued the market for Souray this summer, ditto for Burke in Toronto with Kaberle. I think both Souray and Kaberle will attract some interest come Jan / Feb.

Another factor is that there are more potential buyers late in the season because teams nearer the cap can fit him under the cap.

I think LA would be a very tough trade partner only because Lombardi is known for more waiting and analyzing than Tambi is. The people in LA are always up in arms because their GM won't do anything, and now that he has stockpiled talent, impressively I might add, all the sudden people here are extolling him as the man.

Yeah, I don't know why anyone is down on MPS (as the author of that post states) because he's doing well in less than ideal circumstances. I sometimes wonder if the Oilers should trade Penner now (for a defenseman) and move MPS up to the Gagner line.

It's going to happen sooner or later, and this kid needs to grow.

Please, LT!!!

I usually find myself in agreement with your perspective, but really? Penner?

I think that he has been the best Oiler so far this season, imo. I think that he is young enough that we should be thinking of him as a core player to take us to the promised land. Think of re-signing him, instead.

It is amazing to me that Stauffer (and now you) think that we should trade him! Oilers are going to be "top 9" team instead of the traditional "top 6". We do need to provide him better line mates. Cogs and Brule are not the right fit for him. However, Pitlick and Omark might be just right in the future. Let's face it our current woes have more to do with the bottom of the roster and the D that ST v. 4.0 was supposed to try and fix last summer.

I really think that if we lose Penner now, we will regret that trade in 2 years. Just my 2 cents!

I usually find myself in agreement with your perspective, but really? Penner?

I think that he has been the best Oiler so far this season, imo. I think that he is young enough that we should be thinking of him as a core player to take us to the promised land. Think of re-signing him, instead.

It is amazing to me that Stauffer (and now you) think that we should trade him! Oilers are going to be "top 9" team instead of the traditional "top 6". We do need to provide him better line mates. Cogs and Brule are not the right fit for him. However, Pitlick and Omark might be just right in the future. Let's face it our current woes have more to do with the bottom of the roster and the D that ST v. 4.0 was supposed to try and fix last summer.

I really think that if we lose Penner now, we will regret that trade in 2 years. Just my 2 cents!

Move him to LA and in two years if you reget the move...
He will be UFA and resign him.
Penner would be stoked at this. He gets a shot with LA now and in a couple years the Oilers will be a vastly improved team.

Quick question for you. It's clear there is not room for MP right now on this team, evidenced by his 0 minutes of PP time and low ice time with no linemates. Is he destined to become Cogs II? Or will the team be making room for him this summer by shipping Big Pens out of town? There are only so many spots for our offensive weapons.