UFC 94 Picks and Preview

What could be the single most exciting sporting event of the year is set for this weekend. While most sports fans would associate the previous statement with the Super Bowl, most MMA fans are licking their chops over UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn 2. The event is the most anticipated card in UFC history and is headlined by two of the four best fighters in the globe. The welterweight championship match up has even spawned a successful new series on Spike TV (UFC Primetime) that’s provided an unprecedented look at the lives of the headliners. Although St. Pierre and Penn are the card’s two biggest stars, the event features a number of intriguing match ups. Here’s what to expect come fight night.

Georges St. Pierre (17-2) vs. BJ Penn (13-4-1)

As I mentioned earlier, this title fight features two of the four best fighters (regardless of weight) in the entire world. GSP has won four straight since his upset loss to Matt Serra back in 2007 (including a rematch with Serra). In doing so, the French Canadian has proven he’s gotten past the mental issues that cost him his title in the first place. Already blessed with a diverse set of skills, GSP has improved dramatically over the last two years and recently received his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He’ll need to bring his A game in order to beat “The Prodigy.” The current UFC lightweight champion is seeking to become just the second person to ever simultaneously hold titles in two different weight classes in a major organization. Since moving back to the 155 pound division, Penn has shown a renewed focus and dedication to the sport. Penn also has an ax to grind with St. Pierre, who narrowly beat him the first time they met in 2006. While both fighters have improved since then, this fight should look similar to the last affair. The fearless Penn will look to use his powerful hands and knees to try to finish St. Pierre early. GSP will likely use a much more diverse attack, combining strikes, takedowns and some ground and pound. These are two of my personal favorites so choosing a winner is tough, but I believe GSP is more proven as a welterweight (Penn is just 2-2 as a welterweight) and holds a significant size/strength/cardio advantage over Penn. Those factors should be enough to give GSP a slight advantage come fight time.

Prediction: GSP via decision.

Thiago Silva (13-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (13-0)

This battle of Brazilian light heavyweights could help shape who’s next in line to fight for the title. The two are roughly the same size, they’re both undefeated and both hold a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but that’s where the similarities end. Machida is one of the most technical and methodical fighters in the sport. While his style is sometimes seen as boring, no one can argue his effectiveness. Other than a submission scare via Tito Ortiz, Machida has never been in any real danger in his five UFC fights. Unlike many Brazilian Jiu Jitsu based fighters, Silva is extremely aggressive and always presses the action both on the feet and on the ground. The winner of this fight will depend on who can better execute their game plans. Look for Machida to take exploit Silva’s aggressiveness by using his superior footwork and landing a variety of accurate strikes. Silva will have to cut off Machida’s angles and force him to brawl.

Prediction: Silva via 1st round TKO.

Stephan Bonnar (14-4) vs. Jon Jones (7-0)

This light heavyweight bout features two talented fighters looking to establish themselves as legitimate threats. Bonnar is one of the UFC’s more recognizable faces due to his stint on season one of the Ultimate Fighter and his epic war with Forrest Griffin back in 2005. A serious knee injury has shelved “The American Psycho” from action since late 2007, but he did win his last two fights prior to the injury. He faces one of the hottest prospects in the division. Jones made a successful debut in the Octagon back at UFC 87, by defeating IFL veteran Andre Gusmao. Despite his wrestling and athleticism advantage, Jones is still new to the sport and lacks the experience to beat a gamer like Bonnar.

Prediction: Bonnar via 2nd round submission.

Karo Parisyan (26-5) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1)

This welterweight battle pits two of the best Judo players in the UFC. Parisyan is a regular in the division’s top ten who was last seen eating a big knee courtesy of Thiago Alves, en route to his first loss via knock out. Kim was last seen squeaking out a victory over Matt Brown at UFC 88. Look for Kim to come out guns blazing to start this bout. A victory over “The Heat” would cement his status in the top ten. Even if he lost to the veteran Parisyan, his stock wouldn’t take much of a fall. In short, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Parisyan does not have the same luxury. A loss would likely bump him off the top ten rankings and a win doesn’t do much to improve his standing. The added pressure could make Parisyan (who’s never been known as a finisher) to fight extra cautiously.

Prediction: Kim via decision.

Clay Guida (24-6) vs. Nate Diaz (10-2)

This lightweight bout has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. Guida is known as one of the most relentless fighters in the sport. After losing an epic battle to Roger Huerta in late 2007, Guida has reeled off two straight wins including a decision over Ultimate Fighter 6 winner Mac Danzig. “The Carpenter” will need to utilize all of his tools if he wants to defeat Diaz. The 23 year old has is currently riding a five fight winning streak and quickly building a reputation as one of the best submission specialists in the division. In order for Guida to win this fight, he has to close the distance and use his strength to batter Diaz in the clinch. He does have to be careful however because if the fight hits the mat, he’ll be in danger of a slick Diaz submission. Diaz also holds a distinct reach advantage over Guida and should use that to dictate where the fight goes.

Prediction: Diaz via 2nd round submission.

Jon Fitch (21-3-1) vs. Akihiro Gono (28-13-7)

This fight proves just how deep the main card is. Fitch is widely considered the second best welterweight in the world and Gono is one of the division’s most experienced competitors. Yet both men will compete on the under card (meaning the fight may not be broadcast due to time restraints). Hopefully one of the main card fights ends early because this fight should be very exciting. Fitch was last seen taking a 5 round beating courtesy of champion Georges St. Pierre. While he may have lost the bout (and about 2 pints of blood) Fitch fought admirably and took the champion to a decision. After winning his UFC debut, Gono dropped a decision to Dan Hardy at UFC 89. This is an important fight for both men. Fitch recently had some contractual problems with UFC president Dana White. While the two have reportedly patched things up, a second straight loss could land him a permanent place in Dana’s dog house. A second straight loss for Gono could punch his ticket right out of the UFC altogether. Expect both to fighters to press the action early, but Fitch’s size, strength and wrestling advantage should be enough for him to get the win.