I think it's pretty clear this team is going to be worse on paper than they were the last couple of seasons.. worst since perhaps 2009-10 maybe.

That being said the last two years and last year in particular saw the team hit with some pretty rotten luck, I would take a worse team on paper that stays relatively healthy over those editions handily. Put it this way, we are pretty much hoping that we can get a Kyle Wellwood type of contribution out of a player like Mike Santorelli or Jordan Schroeder on the third line this year - while that is laughable compared to the aspirations this team has had the last few years I'd still take it over what we got out of Andrew Ebbett (or Schroeder for that matter) last year.

Basically it's going to be a transitional year, I think that sets an appropriate level of expectation for this season even though the on ice product will not be vastly worse than what we saw last season (IMHO).

What will be really disastrous is if the team invests heavily in improvements from their young players this season and that doesn't happen. If we don't have young players ready to seize important roles heading into 2014-15 this team will really be in trouble.

Topper wrote:How much is he cap going to increase in the coming years?

The Canadian dollar is down 5%-7% vs the US and not expected to get any better.

Both the US and Canadian economies are tanking.

The Canucks had problems selling out their two playoff dates this year and are being hit with lower corporate sponsorship and this is one of the better franchises.

I can see an increase the season after next, but nowhere near what many are thinking, after that, baby steps up or down but not the growth we had become accustomed to seeing.

No disagreement with any of this but the next time the PA refuses to use their 5% increase option will be the first.

So I'd guess that until they connect the dots and realize that bumping the cap only bumps escrow when HRR is stagnant, we'll probably continue to see an extra few million dollars added to the ceiling every year at least.

dbr wrote:So I'd guess that until they connect the dots and realize that bumping the cap only bumps escrow when HRR is stagnant, we'll probably continue to see an extra few million dollars added to the ceiling every year at least.

Yeah, I doubt that happens, even though it's just a shell game. Using the inflator makes the NHLPA look like the good guys and escrow makes the NHL look bad. In the players eyes at least...

dbr wrote:What will be really disastrous is if the team invests heavily in improvements from their young players this season and that doesn't happen. If we don't have young players ready to seize important roles heading into 2014-15 this team will really be in trouble.

Bingo.

I've been saying that this is still a fairly strong team that can do well IF things go right.

The problem of course is this team at the moment is relying on unpredictable variables such as health, young player development and luck to be a real contender.

Personally, I will be surprised if this team doesn't get 100 points again but it's pretty obvious they're two impact top 9 forwards away from contending.

There's no question the goaltending will be worse, not that there will necessarily be a drop off from Cory to Luongo, but not having a star back-up goalie will cost the Canucks a few points in the regular season because as good as Lack or Ericsson might be, they're probably not there yet.

The Sedin twins will be 33 when next season starts. Their 100 point days are most likely behind them but is it really unreasonable to expect somewhere near a point-a-game from them?

And if the Sedin twins put up a point-a-game each, they're still clearly 1st line players. Do people think that one poor shooting year that dragged Daniel's stats down in a shortened season is a sure sign of decline?

rats19 wrote:Shit....I thought there was still the ability to trade, sign, & make changes. I was unaware that we were stuck with what we have at the moment. You are right Mondi, its not looking good for us..

we are doomed

Oh okay, have a look at the Canucks record of signings, trades and acquisitions the last 4-5 years. When do they do this stuff? The answer is generally in early July and the trade deadline.

The Canucks are done for trades and acquisitions, and if they add anyone near the end of the summer it will be pro-tryouts (i.e. Owen Nolan, David Scatchard) who are generally useless. Other late summer signings are out of the question due to cap space.

But, I'm glad you're relying on a team that got fucking punted from the first round in 4 games, and has one 1 of its last 12 playoff games. And one may argue, or agree, that the team now is worse on paper than those two teams.

There is nothing wrong with being realistic, even if it appears to pessimistic.

I'm hoping that Tortorella can light a fire under these guys, I'm hoping that the team will be better. But, it doesn't seem likely, but it remains possible.The key in all of this, of course, will be the young players. Whether young players like Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce, Horvat, Lain...etc. will be significantly improve team is a completely open question and blind faith in them has absolutely no impact on the outcome.

coco_canuck wrote:And if the Sedin twins put up a point-a-game each, they're still clearly 1st line players. Do people think that one poor shooting year that dragged Daniel's stats down in a shortened season is a sure sign of decline?

I think simply watching them on the ice last season compared to the way they looked in 2010 and '11 showed very clear signs of decline.

When you're terrible defensively and have absolutely no bite to your game, a PPG is really not that great. Christ, Kesler was putting up 75 points on the second line a couple years ago while being the best defensive forward in the league. And he could actually score goals.

If their production slips to the 70 point mark and you take into account their lack of intangibles, they are no longer first-line players.

I'm hopeful and pretty confident that is not the case this season.... but it's coming, and it's coming sooner than the denizens of HomerCorner think it is.

Mondi wrote:Oh okay, have a look at the Canucks record of signings, trades and acquisitions the last 4-5 years. When do they do this stuff? The answer is generally in early July and the trade deadline.

There is always some opportunity to get a steal late in the summer. San Jose in 2009 got Manny for the league minimum, and Gillis got Torres in 2010 in August for $1 million.

If Gillis could pull another Torres-like move, I think everybody would be happy. It is a longshot, but I believe there are more victims of the lowering cap out there that will go for cheap one year deals in August (hello, Mason Raymond!).

I'm hoping that Tortorella can light a fire under these guys, I'm hoping that the team will be better. But, it doesn't seem likely, but it remains possible.The key in all of this, of course, will be the young players.

Exactly, anything is possible, and I think its totally fair to say that the success we're all used to doesn't seem likely.

I'd say the bigger key is health - that's when the lost depth will kill the Canucks.[quote=Rumsfeld]If their production slips to the 70 point mark and you take into account their lack of intangibles, they are no longer first-line players.[/quote] 70 points would put them in the top 50 players in the League.

Mondi wrote:Oh okay, have a look at the Canucks record of signings, trades and acquisitions the last 4-5 years. When do they do this stuff? The answer is generally in early July and the trade deadline.

The Canucks are done for trades and acquisitions

Have a look at the Canucks record of firing their coaching staff and trading their season MVP over the last 4-5 years. When do they do this stuff? The answer is generally never.

I'm not sure we should expect the same old same old this year.

I am optimistic that GMMG has another move (via trade) planned to shake this team up and help them this year - either this summer, or at some point before the playoffs.

Rumsfeld wrote:When you're terrible defensively and have absolutely no bite to your game, a PPG is really not that great. Christ, Kesler was putting up 75 points on the second line a couple years ago while being the best defensive forward in the league. And he could actually score goals.

If their production slips to the 70 point mark and you take into account their lack of intangibles, they are no longer first-line players.

See, I don't agree that the twins are terrible defensively. Henrik's flybys can be aggravating but I thought they were average defensively last season and overall I'd say they've been slightly above average two-way players for their careers.

By advanced stats measures the twins were highly above average last season but my eyes tell me otherwise. If you look at Corsi, quality of competition and the less reliable +/- the twins have excelled. However, the issue is with the reliability of those stats and the relatively small sample size of a lockout shortened season that also had many immeasurable variables. The dudes as Canucks Army wrote some stuff about the twins being elite two-way players this past season, and while I didn't find it all that convincing there is something to be said about regularly out-shooting and out-scoring the opposition while you're on the ice.

I think this is a case where the eye test and the stats don't completely jive but it would suggest the truth is somewhere in the middle.

It was a pretty mixed bag from the twins this past season but I keep going back to the lockout, the malaise of the team and injuries, not to make excuses, but to hedge against the concern that the twins are rapidly declining.

I'm a pretty patient sort and fairly conservative with how I like this team's roster to be managed so I'm cool with giving the youngsters every chance to shine this year and gear towards being even better over the next 2-3 years. From everything I've seen the twins do since arriving in Vancouver I would be confident in betting on them being first line players for another 3 years at least.

The wildcard in all of this is Ryan Kesler. Realistically, there isn't a Kesler trade out there that will make the Canucks better over the next 2-3 years and for better or worse it's best to gamble on him being the two-way force he can be more consistently, i.e. not always hurt.

With the cap being what it is the Canucks most realistic approach to becoming a contender again is getting 2-3 prospects to pan out over the next 2-3 years. If they do and there's some luck health wise, this team has a few years left to challenge for the cup. Signing expensive FA's or trading for older big-ticket items to win now isn't the answer (not saying this is your view Rummy) those types of moves accelerate what we've come to call becoming Calgary.

You have cut right to the heart of the matter, sir, and are obviously 100% correct.

However, did any of us have any serious expectation that any of these areas would be improved this off-season?

1) Father Time waits for no man2) Ballard was gone this year any way, and his part-time playing had to be sacrificed to the lowering cap.3) One of the goalies was getting traded, we all knew that.4) Jensen and Schroeder weren't very encouraging last year, I'll agree there.5) No cap room = no way to address the above problems.

I think many Canucks fans had lessened expectations for the coming year - I know I did. I was more choked about how boring the regular season games became, and what a struggle it was to hold my attention to the on-ice product.

But then, Tortorella arrived. He is by far the most exciting thing for me this off-season. Not because I think he's going to kick ass and pull a Bylsma right away. But because at the very least this team is going to be interesting to watch and follow. I can handle a short playoffs this year due to the facts you pointed out, but so long as Torts makes it entertaining (either on or off the ice) I'll maintain my optimism.

I am not at all excited by the Tortorella hiring. At least in New York, he was a defense first oriented coach ----sound familiar? I will buy the Center Ice Package, but I have a sneaking suspicion I will be TiVo-ing all the games and watching alot of them in high speed so my attention span is not taxed.