In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2012 (499,900 movements) decreased 0.2% when compared with December 2011 (501,100 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.3% higher than in January 2011.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2012. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2011 and January 2012 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (12.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Malaysia (8.9%) followed by the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man (4.6%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2012

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Dec 11 to Jan 12

Jan 11 to Jan 12

Source countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

China

47.9

47.6

77.2

-0.6

12.1

New Zealand

101.8

101.7

75.0

-0.2

1.9

UK, CIs & IOM(b)

49.6

49.9

57.0

-0.5

-4.6

United States of America

40.6

40.4

38.8

1.7

3.1

Japan

27.3

27.4

23.8

-1.1

-4.3

Singapore

26.2

26.0

19.1

-1.2

-2.1

Korea(c)

16.7

15.7

19.1

-0.8

-3.2

Hong Kong

13.5

13.0

15.5

-0.9

-3.7

Germany

12.9

12.8

13.2

0.7

-3.5

Malaysia

18.4

17.2

12.9

-3.4

-8.9

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.

(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The February 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than January 2012.
2 The February 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than January 2012.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2012 (657,400 movements) increased 0.2% when compared with December 2011 (656,100 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 7.2% higher than in January 2011.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2012. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2011 and January 2012 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (17.3%), followed by Thailand (13.9%). The were no percentage decreases recorded.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2012

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Dec 11 to Jan 12

Jan 11 to Jan 12

Destination countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

95.7

95.0

93.8

-0.3

8.4

Indonesia

75.2

74.8

68.7

-

9.8

United States of America

65.5

67.3

55.6

0.2

6.9

Thailand

46.6

47.7

46.2

-0.4

13.9

China

32.9

32.7

29.4

1.4

17.3

Fiji

28.4

28.2

24.8

-0.2

9.3

Vietnam

18.5

19.3

24.7

1.0

9.9

Malaysia

21.2

21.9

24.3

-0.1

1.5

Singapore

23.7

23.7

21.1

-0.6

0.8

India

17.0

17.5

18.7

0.5

13.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The February 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than January 2012.
2 The February 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than January 2012.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

There were 14,210 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2012, an increase of 35.3% compared with January 2011 (10,510 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (22.1%), followed by people born in UK,CIs & IOM (11.7%), China (10.2%) and India (8.4%).

There were 11,950 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during January 2012, which decreased 1.1% when compared with January 2011 (12,090 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.