Thursday, January 21, 2016

Here is second initial installment of the NBA SBPI
[SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2015-2016 season.As a reminder this model first uses the Four
Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in
key statistical areas followed by filtering that data into a regression formula
that properly weights the impact of each statistic before being finalized by an
SOS adjustment.Here is where each team
stands through Wednesday January 20th:

HOME

ROAD

Projected Record

Playoff Seeds

Team

RATING

RATING

Wins

Losses

West

East

San
Antonio

107.6

103.1

73

9

1

Golden
State

105.2

100.7

72

10

2

Okla City

100.5

96.5

59

23

3

L.A.
Clippers

98.7

95.7

55

27

4

Cleveland

99.0

95.0

57

25

1

Boston

97.0

94.5

47

35

5

Detroit

97.0

94.0

48

34

4

Atlanta

96.1

93.1

49

33

3

Toronto

96.0

93.0

51

31

2

Indiana

95.9

92.9

47

35

6

Orlando

93.3

90.8

42

40

8

Memphis

93.7

90.7

44

38

5

Charlotte

93.6

90.6

40

42

Washington

92.5

90.5

41

41

Miami

93.2

90.2

43

39

7

Dallas

93.0

90.0

44

38

Utah

92.1

89.6

37

45

7

Sacramento

90.2

88.2

36

46

8

Houston

90.5

88.0

38

44

6

Portland

90.4

87.9

35

47

Chicago

90.5

87.5

41

41

Milwaukee

90.1

87.1

34

48

New
York

90.0

87.0

37

45

New
Orleans

88.7

86.2

29

53

Denver

88.0

86.0

31

51

Minnesota

87.6

85.6

26

56

Phoenix

87.1

85.1

26

56

Brooklyn

85.6

83.6

22

60

Philadelphia

82.6

80.6

13

69

L.A.
Lakers

82.0

80.0

15

67

These are the actual power ratings I would use when setting
lines on a daily basis.

The San Antonio Spurs maintain the top spot in the ratings
but the East continues to strengthen it’s depth as seen by the playoff seedings
& each team’s corresponding rating.

The “Projected Record” column is calculated by:

1.Taking
a teams current record

2.Adding
wins over remainder of the season based on their regression analysis of
strength

For example, walking through the San Antonio Spurs
calculation:

They
are currently 36-6 & are projected to play .934 ball for the remainder of
the season.Taking that .934 times their
40 remaining games yields 37.4 more wins; add the 36 & 37.4 and you get
73.4 wins, which is shown in the projected wins column.

Now remember there are obviously additional variables that
could be in play when projecting a team’s final record such as sitting players,
home/road splits – but this formula is at worst a good proxy for projecting
playoff seeds.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Here is the FINAL CFB SBPI installment of the 2015 season –
and once again the SBPI was right on target having Alabama win the National
Championship (ranked #1); in addition the National Championship Game itself
featured #1 vs. #2 in SBPI.This year’s
champ Alabama’s 298.6 grade checks in as the 4th best mark over the
last 7 seasons.To read more about how I
calculate my ratings look back at this
entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through
action the National Championship Game.The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks
across 128 teams in the FBS; we also included Sagarin’s rankings
which can be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS
adjusted RATING and RANK:

RECORD

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

WINS

LOSS

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

SAG

RATING

RANK

14

1

Alabama

24

2

2

1

298.6

1

12

2

Stanford

5

48

11

5

289.9

2

14

1

Clemson

8

8

1

2

283.2

3

11

2

Oklahoma

3

23

6

4

263.2

4

12

1

Ohio State

31

7

7

3

245.1

5

10

3

Michigan

53

6

9

9

239.4

6

11

2

TCU

5

46

10

7

236.8

7

10

3

Mississippi

16

42

13

6

236.4

8

8

5

Arkansas

1

78

21

15

232.0

9

9

4

Tennessee

35

21

14

10

227.9

10

9

4

Boise State

23

5

4

37

227.1

11

12

2

Iowa

40

15

12

22

226.4

12

9

3

LSU

40

36

31

13

225.4

13

10

3

Notre Dame

22

52

32

11

219.6

14

7

6

Washington

61

15

32

25

215.7

15

10

3

Baylor

5

61

18

8

214.8

16

13

1

Houston

12

28

8

21

214.6

17

10

3

Georgia

58

12

20

23

214.6

18

8

6

USC

21

74

43

14

214.3

19

12

2

Michigan State

46

31

34

17

213.6

20

8

5

West Virginia

38

36

30

27

213.5

21

10

3

Wisconsin

88

2

14

19

212.9

22

10

3

Florida State

48

23

25

12

212.7

23

9

4

Mississippi State

29

51

37

18

212.7

24

11

3

North Carolina

10

63

23

16

211.9

25

10

3

Utah

55

23

35

24

211.5

26

11

3

San Diego State

35

4

5

44

210.2

27

8

5

Louisville

71

17

37

34

207.5

28

8

5

South Florida

27

29

14

56

207.3

29

9

4

BYU

63

14

25

38

206.1

30

11

2

Appalachian State

10

9

3

59

204.8

31

9

4

Memphis

8

69

25

47

203.4

32

10

4

Florida

100

12

50

28

200.4

33

8

5

Pittsburgh

48

50

48

39

198.4

34

7

6

North Carolina St

46

39

35

49

197.6

35

10

4

Temple

68

10

23

51

195.3

36

8

5

Texas A&M

72

33

55

33

194.6

37

6

7

Arizona State

38

69

57

40

194.3

38

10

4

Bowling Green

12

60

21

52

193.2

39

10

2

Toledo

27

36

18

36

192.3

40

8

5

UCLA

44

57

53

30

191.9

41

8

5

California

19

99

64

32

189.7

42

9

4

Oregon

15

108

62

20

189.4

43

10

3

Oklahoma State

33

78

60

26

188.0

44

8

6

Air Force

29

42

29

72

187.7

45

3

9

Boston College

118

1

51

82

187.1

46

6

7

Nebraska

50

55

57

41

186.3

47

12

2

Western Kentucky

3

74

25

35

181.9

48

10

3

Northwestern

112

10

65

43

181.3

49

7

6

Virginia Tech

63

45

60

45

181.3

50

3

9

Georgia Tech

72

52

69

53

179.7

51

8

5

Western Michigan

2

92

42

62

178.7

52

11

2

Navy

20

77

43

31

178.0

53

9

5

S Mississippi

17

42

14

69

177.9

54

7

6

Penn State

104

20

66

50

176.8

55

7

6

Texas Tech

14

116

70

46

174.1

56

6

7

Indiana

17

103

66

68

173.9

57

9

4

Washington State

51

82

68

42

172.6

58

6

7

Utah State

88

26

57

73

171.6

59

7

6

Central Michigan

54

40

46

83

170.7

60

7

6

Cincinnati

31

87

62

74

167.7

61

5

7

Illinois

102

31

70

70

167.6

62

8

5

Miami (Florida)

72

61

73

48

167.2

63

7

6

Auburn

85

64

80

29

165.4

64

4

8

Vanderbilt

117

17

77

78

165.0

65

7

6

Middle Tennessee

26

64

45

84

164.1

66

7

6

Colorado State

40

54

47

88

163.7

67

9

4

Louisiana Tech

24

55

37

67

163.7

68

5

7

San Jose State

44

57

53

89

163.4

69

8

5

Ohio

52

48

48

90

160.2

70

9

4

Arkansas State

40

46

40

75

159.9

71

6

7

Minnesota

107

41

80

63

155.9

72

9

4

Georgia Southern

72

33

55

60

154.9

73

10

3

Marshall

57

26

41

65

152.5

74

8

5

Duke

58

78

75

57

152.2

75

8

5

Akron

85

22

52

93

151.3

76

4

9

Colorado

85

71

83

85

150.2

77

7

6

Arizona

35

113

83

54

149.6

78

5

7

East Carolina

72

71

76

79

147.9

79

8

6

Northern Illinois

66

64

72

80

142.1

80

6

7

Connecticut

113

30

82

86

141.6

81

5

7

Missouri

126

19

88

61

140.8

82

4

8

Virginia

82

98

95

71

138.2

83

5

7

Texas

91

96

98

55

137.4

84

4

8

Rutgers

63

108

91

92

136.3

85

5

7

Kentucky

106

64

94

77

131.7

86

3

9

South Carolina

94

96

101

64

131.1

87

7

6

Nevada

58

86

77

94

131.1

88

3

9

UNLV

68

88

86

101

131.0

89

3

9

Iowa State

80

114

104

66

128.6

90

3

9

Maryland

109

83

103

81

128.2

91

6

7

Georgia State

61

74

73

99

128.2

92

2

10

Army

66

85

79

111

127.9

93

6

7

Tulsa

34

121

89

91

124.2

94

5

7

Buffalo

91

64

85

100

121.2

95

4

8

Syracuse

97

102

104

76

120.6

96

7

6

New Mexico

78

91

87

97

119.4

97

3

9

Wake Forest

120

57

106

87

119.4

98

3

9

Kent State

123

33

91

118

118.4

99

4

8

Troy

94

83

89

98

116.5

100

3

9

Florida Atlantic

105

78

97

103

106.5

101

6

7

Kansas State

108

103

115

58

106.4

102

5

7

Flor International

82

95

93

105

105.5

103

2

10

SMU

82

119

113

104

104.5

104

5

7

Rice

56

114

95

110

104.1

105

3

9

UTSA

97

92

100

114

103.6

106

4

8

Idaho

68

117

106

112

98.7

107

4

8

LouisianaLafayette

90

103

101

108

97.7

108

2

10

Wyoming

78

120

112

115

97.7

109

2

10

Purdue

110

111

118

95

96.8

110

5

7

UTEP

99

89

99

120

96.1

111

3

9

Massachusetts

102

103

109

109

93.3

112

3

9

Miami (Ohio)

122

71

110

119

92.0

113

5

7

South Alabama

113

92

114

107

90.2

114

3

9

New Mexico State

72

121

110

124

90.1

115

5

7

Old Dominion

100

103

108

121

88.2

116

3

9

Ball State

91

125

119

106

83.9

117

3

9

Tulane

118

99

121

113

83.2

118

1

11

Eastern Michigan

94

117

116

127

81.6

119

3

9

Fresno State

116

108

122

102

81.3

120

2

10

Charlotte

120

89

117

128

78.1

121

3

9

Texas State

80

128

119

117

76.2

122

2

10

Oregon State

113

124

124

96

74.9

123

2

11

Louisiana-Monroe

124

101

123

125

65.9

124

1

11

North Texas

110

127

125

126

60.6

125

3

10

Hawai'i

127

112

126

122

57.1

126

0

12

Kansas

125

123

127

116

51.4

127

0

12

UCF

128

126

128

123

32.1

128

Currently there is 87%
correlation between SBPI ranking & wins & that correlation has
increased each week

The 2015 UCF squad graded out as the absolute worst team
since I have developed the SBPI ratings system

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.