TONGLING, China—Officials in this old mining town knew almost nothing about electric vehicles when they gave a startup $535 million in land and capital to build an electric-car plant here two years ago.

The startup, Singulato Motors, was founded by a group of tech professionals led by a former internet-security executive who had never run a car company before.

Such partnerships are springing up all over China, spurred by Beijing’s call for the country to become a world power in electric-vehicle technology and by local governments eager to jump on the bandwagon. President Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 plan, launched three years ago to promote “domestic dominance and global competitiveness” in 10 sectors, includes electric vehicles.

There are now 487 electric-vehicle makers in China, according to the latest official tally, and most are brand new. In June, the National Development and Reform Commission and
China Construction Bank
announced a new $47 billion fund for EVs and other high-tech industries. Regional governments are making similar funding commitments. Direct government subsidies on electric-vehicle sales have totaled $15 billion over the last five years.

Singulato Chief Executive Shen Haiyin estimates that just 10% of today’s EV startups will survive the next five years. Some auto analysts put the figure nearer to 1%.

“A lot of capital is being invested in this industry,” said Paul Gong, an analyst at UBS. “A lot of it will be wasted.”

Lured by the prospect of handouts, many companies have concluded that “simply giving it a shot and receiving government support can be a reasonable business model, even if they never put an electric car on the road,” said Scott Kennedy, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The moment of truth will come when China’s national and local authorities have to decide whether to let the losers fail or keep them afloat.”

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversees the auto sector, declined to comment.

Even the electric-car startups that succeed in mass-producing electric cars will have to compete against established foreign and domestic auto makers rolling out their own fleets. All auto makers operating in China are required to start building electric vehicles by 2019.

Luxury electric-car maker
Tesla Inc.
recently signed a deal to build its first overseas plant in Shanghai, with a 500,000-vehicle annual capacity.

China’s push for technological dominance is partly behind its escalating trade dispute with America. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer drew a bead on Made in China 2025 in his trade-related investigation in March, saying huge investments of state capital and attempts to force technology transfer threaten foreign companies.

Some 777,000 electric vehicles were sold in China last year, nearly half of the global total. But with so many EV companies joining the race, excess supply looks inevitable.

“China wants to be a high-tech power and catch up to the technology frontier, and one of the costs is likely to be overcapacity,” said Dan Wang, technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.

Mr. Wang said Made in China 2025 was causing a new wave of overcapacity problems that China had previously suffered in heavy industries like steel and shipbuilding.

“It may be a cost that Beijing is willing to pay,” he said.

Singulato’s manufacturing facility in Tongling, a city of 750,000 people in Anhui province.
Photo:
Trefor Moss/The Wall Street Journal

Having raised around $1.2 billion from private investors, Singulato has relatively deep pockets and therefore has a fighting chance of being one of the few startups to survive, Mr. Shen said.

Mr. Shen, previously a vice president at an internet-security company, said he chose Tongling, a city of 750,000 people in Anhui province, over at least 20 other cities and provinces vying for the factory.

There are more than 100 traditional auto makers in China, most of them unprofitable companies that survive on local-government handouts.

Before meeting Singulato executives for the first time, Ms. Liu pored over books on EVs to educate herself about the technology. When she met the Singulato team, everything clicked: their concept of an EV that would be easy to personalize, like a smartphone, sounded like a winner, Ms. Liu said. They quickly signed their deal.

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Both sides acknowledged the risks of competing in such a crowded field, but they also emphasized the potential gains. Tongling could have spent its money building another stretch of highway, Mr. Shen said. Instead, it bought a stake in a strategic future industry, he said.

Singulato’s first car, the iS6 sport-utility vehicle, priced at around $43,000, hits showrooms later this year. By 2020, it hopes to sell around 60,000 of them.

“We needed to seize the opportunity,” Ms. Liu said. “If Tongling hadn’t, other cities in Anhui would definitely have done it instead.”