Week 15 NCAA Projections

Scores and final regular season standings for every FBS team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

August 25th, 2008

WhatIfSports.com will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning
percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.
The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win).
Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers
strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Game of the Week: #17 VTech 24 (10-3) vs #7 Clemson 27 (12-1)
Ohio State is in the BCS Championship game, but its opponent is still definitely up for grabs entering conference championship week. Clemson, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, West Virginia and Georgia have all been favored in each of their games up to this point. Each of those teams, except Virginia Tech, can also expect to have one-loss by Week 15. Based on its schedule, being #2 in the power rankings and having the lowest expected loss value, Georgia controls its own destiny. If the Bulldogs beat LSU, they are in. We say they do for the second time this year, but it's very close. What if they don't win? Oklahoma, Missouri and Clemson have the most to gain because they face teams in the conference championship of equally elite stature. The ACC Championship is our game of the week because of what it means. They do not play during the regular season, so, like Oklahoma and Missouri, Clemson and Virginia Tech could both be undefeated before the game. If it wins, Clemson could have a real shot at the BCS title. But if they lose, the Tigers could be bumped out of the BCS picture completely. 1,000 simulations say that Clemson squeaks by the Hokies 65.3% of the time and by an average score of 27-24. All of our bowl results will be posted tomorrow.

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

LSU vs. Georgia

75.5

21-25

Missouri vs Oklahoma

66.1

32-37

Virginia Tech vs Clemson

65.3

24-27

Miami (OH) vs Ball State

57.9

26-27

Houston vs UCF

52.1

30-31

South Florida @ W. Virginia

83.6

23-40

Washington @ California

67.2

26-37

Mid Tenn @ LA-Laf

49.2

27-28

Pittsburgh @ Connecticut

47.5

24-23

Louisville @ Rutgers

39.3

35-36

Arkansas St. @ Troy

37.7

23-19

Arizona St. @ Arizona

32.8

31-28

Western Kentucky @ Fla. Int.

16.4

24-16

Cincinnati @ Hawaii

16.4

29-20

Navy @ Army

5

31-14

USC @ UCLA

5

34-11

Final FBS Regular Season Standings

Conference

Team

Abs Record

Exp Record

Atlantic Coast

Clemson

13 - 0

12 - 1

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

12 - 1

10 - 3

Atlantic Coast

WF

11 - 1

10 - 2

Atlantic Coast

Maryland

6 - 6

8 - 4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina

10 - 2

8 - 4

Atlantic Coast

Florida State

8 - 4

7 - 5

Atlantic Coast

Boston College

4 - 8

5 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Duke

3 - 9

5 - 7

Atlantic Coast

GA Tech

5 - 7

5 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Miami (FL)

6 - 6

5 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Virginia

2 - 10

3 - 9

Atlantic Coast

NC St.

1 - 11

2 - 10

Big East

W. Virginia

12 - 0

11 - 1

Big East

South Florida

10 - 2

8 - 4

Big East

Cincinnati

9 - 4

8 - 5

Big East

Connecticut

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big East

Louisville

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big East

Pittsburgh

10 - 2

7 - 5

Big East

Rutgers

4 - 8

7 - 5

Big East

Syracuse

2 - 10

2 - 10

Big Ten

Ohio State

12 - 0

12 - 0

Big Ten

Illinois

9 - 3

9 - 3

Big Ten

Wisconsin

11 - 1

9 - 3

Big Ten

Indiana

8 - 4

7 - 5

Big Ten

Michigan

8 - 4

7 - 5

Big Ten

Penn State

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big Ten

Purdue

11 - 1

7 - 5

Big Ten

Iowa

5 - 7

6 - 6

Big Ten

Michigan State

4 - 8

6 - 6

Big Ten

Northwestern

5 - 7

5 - 7

Big Ten

Minn.

3 - 9

4 - 8

Big Twelve

Oklahoma

13 - 0

12 - 1

Big Twelve

Missouri

12 - 1

10 - 3

Big Twelve

Texas Tech

9 - 3

9 - 3

Big Twelve

Texas

10 - 2

9 - 3

Big Twelve

Kansas

9 - 3

8 - 3

Big Twelve

Oklahoma State

8 - 4

8 - 4

Big Twelve

Kansas State

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big Twelve

Nebraska

5 - 7

6 - 6

Big Twelve

Colorado

5 - 7

5 - 7

Big Twelve

Texas A&M

4 - 8

5 - 7

Big Twelve

Baylor

2 - 10

3 - 9

Big Twelve

Iowa State

1 - 11

2 - 10

Conference USA

Houston

11 - 2

9 - 4

Conference USA

UCF

11 - 2

10 - 3

Conference USA

East Carolina

9 - 3

8 - 4

Conference USA

Tulsa

8 - 4

8 - 4

Conference USA

Rice

8 - 4

7 - 5

Conference USA

S. Miss

7 - 5

6 - 6

Conference USA

Memphis

3 - 9

5 - 7

Conference USA

SMU

5 - 7

5 - 7

Conference USA

UTEP

3 - 9

4 - 8

Conference USA

Marshall

3 - 9

3 - 9

Conference USA

Tulane

2 - 10

3 - 9

Conference USA

UAB

1 - 11

2 - 10

Independents (FBS)

Notre Dame

7 - 5

7 - 5

Independents (FBS)

Navy

6 - 6

6 - 6

Independents (FBS)

Western Kentucky

4 - 8

5 - 7

Independents (FBS)

Army

1 - 11

2 - 10

Mid-American

Ball State

11 - 2

9 - 4

Mid-American

C. Michigan

9 - 3

8 - 4

Mid-American

Miami (OH)

9 - 4

7 - 6

Mid-American

Temple

6 - 6

7 - 5

Mid-American

W. Michigan

8 - 4

7 - 5

Mid-American

Bowling Green

6 - 6

6 - 6

Mid-American

Kent St.

6 - 6

6 - 6

Mid-American

Ohio

5 - 7

6 - 6

Mid-American

Buffalo

3 - 9

5 - 7

Mid-American

E. Michigan

2 - 10

4 - 8

Mid-American

Northern Illinois

3 - 9

4 - 8

Mid-American

Toledo

3 - 9

4 - 8

Mid-American

Akron

2 - 10

3 - 9

Mountain West

Brigham Young

11 - 1

10 - 2

Mountain West

TCU

10 - 2

9 - 3

Mountain West

Utah

10 - 2

9 - 3

Mountain West

Air Force

7 - 5

7 - 5

Mountain West

New Mexico

8 - 4

7 - 5

Mountain West

Wyoming

6 - 6

7 - 5

Mountain West

Colorado St.

3 - 9

4 - 8

Mountain West

UNLV

3 - 9

4 - 8

Mountain West

San Diego State

1 - 11

2 - 10

Pacific-10

USC

11 - 1

11 - 1

Pacific-10

Arizona St.

10 - 2

8 - 4

Pacific-10

Arizona

7 - 5

7 - 5

Pacific-10

California

10 - 2

7 - 5

Pacific-10

Oregon

8 - 4

7 - 5

Pacific-10

UCLA

5 - 7

6 - 6

Pacific-10

Oregon State

3 - 9

4 - 8

Pacific-10

Washington

3 - 9

4 - 8

Pacific-10

Washington St.

3 - 10

4 - 9

Pacific-10

Stanford

1 - 11

2 - 10

Southeastern

Georgia

13 - 0

12 - 1

Southeastern

LSU

11 - 2

11 - 2

Southeastern

Florida

10 - 2

10 - 2

Southeastern

Alabama

9 - 3

8 - 4

Southeastern

Auburn

8 - 4

8 - 4

Southeastern

Tennessee

8 - 4

7 - 5

Southeastern

Kentucky

7 - 5

6 - 6

Southeastern

Mississippi State

5 - 7

6 - 6

Southeastern

S. Carolina

6 - 6

6 - 6

Southeastern

Arkansas

5 - 7

5 - 7

Southeastern

Mississippi

4 - 8

5 - 7

Southeastern

Vanderbilt

0 - 12

2 - 10

Sun Belt

Florida Atlantic

10 - 2

9 - 3

Sun Belt

LA-Monroe

8 - 4

7 - 5

Sun Belt

Arkansas St.

7 - 5

6 - 6

Sun Belt

LA-Laf

3 - 9

5 - 7

Sun Belt

Mid Tenn

5 - 7

4 - 8

Sun Belt

North Texas

2 - 10

4 - 8

Sun Belt

Troy

3 - 9

4 - 8

Sun Belt

Fla. Int.

0 - 12

1 - 11

Western Athletic

Boise State

9 - 3

9 - 3

Western Athletic

Fresno State

11 - 1

9 - 3

Western Athletic

Nevada

9 - 3

8 - 4

Western Athletic

Hawaii

7 - 6

7 - 6

Western Athletic

Idaho

5 - 7

5 - 7

Western Athletic

New Mexico State

5 - 7

5 - 7

Western Athletic

Louisiana Tech

4 - 8

4 - 8

Western Athletic

San Jose State

3 - 9

4 - 8

Western Athletic

Utah State

0 - 12

1 - 11

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