► This dissertation contains three essays on the economics of people and places. The essays share a common goal of understanding the long-run consequences of economic…
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▼ This dissertation contains three essays on the economics of people and places. The essays share a common goal of understanding the long-run consequences of economic and social processes on people, places, and the economy. The essays also share a common approach of combining newly available administrative data with transparent empirical methodologies.
The first chapter paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on educational attainment and income. Using confidential Census data linked to county of birth, I relate cross-county variation in the severity of the recession to differences in long-run outcomes between individuals who were younger versus older when the recession began. Individuals who were born in counties with a more severe recession and were children or adolescents during the recession are less likely to obtain a college degree and, as adults, earn less income. My estimates, combined with the large number of potentially affected individuals, suggest that the 1980-1982 recession could depress economic output today. Every U.S. recession since 1973 resembles the 1980-1982 recession in persistently decreasing earnings per capita in negatively affected counties, which suggests that other recessions might also have significant long-run effects.
The second chapter examines the role of social interactions in location decisions. We study over one million long-run location decisions made during two landmark migration episodes by African Americans born in the U.S. South and whites born in the Great Plains. We develop a new method to estimate the strength of social interactions for each receiving and sending location. Social interactions strongly influenced the location decisions of black migrants, but were less important for white migrants. Social interactions were particularly important in providing African American migrants with information about attractive employment opportunities and played a larger role in less costly moves.
The third chapter estimates the effect of social connectedness on crime across U.S. cities from 1960-2009. We use a new source of variation in social connectedness stemming from social interactions in the migration of millions of African Americans out of the South. Cities with higher social connectedness had considerably fewer murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, and larcenies, with a one standard deviation increase in social connectedness reducing the murder rate by 14 percent. As predicted by a simple economic model, effects on city-level crime rates are stronger in cities with a higher African American population share.
Advisors/Committee Members: Bailey, Martha J (committee member), DiNardo, John E (committee member), Bartelme, Dominick Gabriel (committee member), Bound, John (committee member).

▼ This paper studies decision of whether outsourcing or localization in China. Both strategies can enjoy low wage advantage. But outsourcing induces processing trade, while localization, which has additional localization cost can turn processing trade of some goods to ordinary trade. The asymmetric effect lies on that once localized, it is hard to return to outsourcing due to competition or fixed expenditures involved. If wage difference larger, it is more preferable to localized. Therefore, we can expect asymmetric effect of processing trade due to movement of relative wage difference, which was proved by econometrics on recent data by cointegrating analysis within a VECM model. <i>keywords</i>: <b>Processing Trade, REER, Outsourcing, Cointegration </b>

► This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balance between Japan and the US. Differing from conventional elasticities…
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▼ This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balance between Japan and the US. Differing from conventional elasticities approach, one more variable—the net foreign assets—is added in the Vector Autoregression estimation using quarterly data from 1980: I to 2006: IV. The Johansen and Juselius result indicates three long-run relationships among five macro variables: trade balance, domestic income, foreign income, net foreign assets and real exchange rate. Short run adjustment parameters are identified as coefficients of the error correction terms. The variance in trade balance due to variations in the two macro variables—the exchange rate and the net foreign assets—is examined by Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition procedures. The main finding of this paper is that taking the valuation effect of the net foreign asset position into account, the final effect of the exchange rate changes on trade balance is undetermined. Although appreciation can reduce trade surplus in the short run, in a longer horizon, there is no stable relationship. The positive sign of the relation is not guaranteed in this case, and appreciation is not surely able to correct the trade imbalance between countries.

► Despite an extensive literature on the determinants of the foreign location choices by multinational companies, researchers have only recently begun to systematically examine how…
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▼ Despite an extensive literature on the determinants of the foreign location choices by multinational companies, researchers have only recently begun to systematically examine how these companies form their location consideration sets. When considering new foreign locations, do firms evaluate the attributes of the alternatives at the national level, the sub-national regional level, at some other level of geographical aggregation, or using some combination of these? This study employs discrete choice models to examine how U.S. multinational companies form their location consideration sets and to identify some of the relevant location attributes. The data set covers new manufacturing investments by U.S. companies in selected countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific over the period 1989-2003. The results indicate that U.S. firms tend to employ a sequential, or hierarchical, choice process in which a host country is first chosen based on one set of attributes and then a region within that country is chosen based on another set of attributes. Location attributes related to industrial agglomeration (such as the proximity to customers, suppliers, workers with the necessary skills, and transportation infrastructure) appear to dominate location attributes related to factor prices (such as the availability of cheap land and low-wage labor).

Mataloni, Raymond J., J. (2008). Do U.S. multinationals engage in sequential choice? Evidence from new manufacturing operations in Europe and Asia-Pacific. (Thesis). American University. Retrieved from http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3283220

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Mataloni, Raymond J. J. Do U.S. multinationals engage in sequential choice? Evidence from new manufacturing operations in Europe and Asia-Pacific. [Thesis]. American University; 2008. Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3283220

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

► This dissertation considers price indices in the context of two rapidly growing markets. The first is the emerging market for Internet Service Providers in…
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▼ This dissertation considers price indices in the context of two rapidly growing markets. The first is the emerging market for Internet Service Providers in the mid-1990s. The second is the emergence and growth of the DVD hardware market. In both, we examine indices ranging from the most rudimentary to quality adjusted hedonic models. In the context of the ISPs, we also use this framework to study firm behavior and the development of industry structure. The results show decisively that ISP prices have been falling rapidly over time. The bulk of the price decline is in the early years of the sample, especially the period between early 1995 and spring of 1996, but a significant and steady decline continues throughout. We conclude that ignoring aspects of quality underestimates the price declines. It also alters the timing of the measured declines. The results also show that there are links between changes in market structure and ISP pricing. Entry lowered prices, and later entrants entered with differentially lower prices than earlier entrants. Both of these facts are consistent with positive sorting through entry. We also conclude that ignoring aspects of quality underestimate the price declines. It also alters the timing of the measured declines. In the DVD hardware market, this study shows that prices have been falling at a ∼24% compounded annual rate since the product's introduction in the marketplace. This is significantly faster than the results garnered from elementary price indices or matched models methods with the same data sample. The paper shows that the hedonic framework is suitable for such rapidly growing and changing product markets. This paper demonstrates that it is the easily discernable high level features of DVD hardware that drive most of the variability in price. Brand also impacts price but the impact has less explanatory power than the high level features of the DVD hardware itself. The hedonic pricing results and the pricing indices created are extremely robust to various specifications. The results on qualitative measures of quality suggest that they are not significant determinants of the price in the hedonic model used here.

► Markets arise from the interaction of consumers with suppliers. As consumers and suppliers evolve, so do markets. Changes in conduct behavior among suppliers can…
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▼ Markets arise from the interaction of consumers with suppliers. As consumers and suppliers evolve, so do markets. Changes in conduct behavior among suppliers can also cause markets to evolve. This collection of papers studies how particular factors shape demand, supply, and conduct. Regarding demand, consumers may benefit from more choice. The benefits of increasing choice of health insurance plans for employees is estimated using a proprietary data set covering over ten million Americans between 1999 and 2006. Estimates suggest consumers are willing to pay twenty percent higher premiums for more choice. I study supply by estimating sunk entry costs for multi-unit firms that expand gradually. Dis-economies of scale, arising from scarce management or lack of financial resources, may have constrained expansion in the Mexican supermarket industry between 1999 and 2006. An entry model with inter-market dependencies is developed to estimate these dis-economies. I find WalMart's per-store entry costs increase by one to two percent for each additional store opened in the same year. Firm's finances are also found to affect sunk entry costs significantly. Conduct is studied in the context of the US airline industry. A model of multimarket competition is developed, where hub-&-spoke carriers can freely readjust seat allocations across routes that share a common leg. Carriers are found to compete less aggressively when they overlap on routes in which at least one rival can readjust, but not when they overlap on other routes. This contrasts with the mutual forbearance hypothesis that states carriers compete less aggressively as the degree of overlap increases, regardless of the type of route. The predictions of the model are validated empirically using data between 1993 and 2007 and are found to be four fold stronger than those of the mutual forbearance hypothesis. Implications for merger policy are discussed.

► This dissertation consists of two studies. One is about the level of product diversification of multiproduct firms. The other is about the product switching…
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▼ This dissertation consists of two studies. One is about the level of product diversification of multiproduct firms. The other is about the product switching decision of multiproduct firms. Most of the existing studies rely on economies of scope or strategic considerations to explain why firms produce multiple products. However, only a few explain why the level of product diversification varies across multiproduct firms. I extend the Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competitive model to analyze product diversification of heterogeneous multiproduct firms, focusing on the role of firm-specific productivity. The model shows that the firm's level of product diversification is determined by and positively related to its productivity at the equilibrium. Using data from the Thomas Register of American Manufacturers and Compustat, I test the prediction of the theoretical model. To overcome simultaneity bias associated with productivity, I implement a IV estimation where I use the number of product varieties offered by the upstream industries of a firm as the instrumental variable to identify exogenous changes in the firm's productivity. This IV strategy is motivated by Romer (1990) who argues that technological changes can take the form of increases in the variety of intermediate inputs. I find strong and robust empirical evidence consistent with the prediction of the theoretical model—firm productivity is a causal factor for product diversification. To understand product switching decision, I further expand the Dixit-Stiglitz model to allow for product-specific shocks. In this model, firm-specific productivity determines the range of products, and product-specific relative consumer's preference determines the composition of products offered by the firm. This shows that, in the absence of productivity shocks, product-specific shocks induce product switching—adding the product experienced a positive demand shock and dropping the product undergone a negative shock from its original product portfolio. Assuming that a product experiences positive shocks before the market shakeout and negative shocks after shakeout as it goes through its life cycle, this result suggests that the incidence of product switching is positively correlated with the proportion of the firm's products that are in the early (growing) stage of their life cycles. This prediction is confirmed in the empirical estimation. In addition to product-specific demand shocks, I also find that larger and older firms as well as firms facing greater market competition are more likely to switch products.

Yang, H. (2011). Product diversification of U.S. manufacturing firms| A theoretical and empirical investigation. (Thesis). State University of New York at Buffalo. Retrieved from http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3475476

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Yang, Hsiao-shan. “Product diversification of U.S. manufacturing firms| A theoretical and empirical investigation.” 2011. Thesis, State University of New York at Buffalo. Accessed September 15, 2019.
http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3475476.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Yang H. Product diversification of U.S. manufacturing firms| A theoretical and empirical investigation. [Internet] [Thesis]. State University of New York at Buffalo; 2011. [cited 2019 Sep 15].
Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3475476.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Yang H. Product diversification of U.S. manufacturing firms| A theoretical and empirical investigation. [Thesis]. State University of New York at Buffalo; 2011. Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3475476

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

The George Washington University

8.
Kwon, Yongjae.
Extreme value estimators| Their long memory feature and forecasting performances in the U.S. stock indexes.

► This dissertation studies long memory and forecasting performances of extreme value volatility estimators which are constructed with the highest and lowest intraday prices. First,…
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▼ This dissertation studies long memory and forecasting performances of extreme value volatility estimators which are constructed with the highest and lowest intraday prices. First, I estimate long memory in the extreme value estimators. I conduct the long memory tests to break-eliminated series. From the examination, I continue to find significant long memory in the new series, but the degrees of long memory become smaller. This evidence demonstrates that the long memory processes can be suitable to model the extreme value estimators. Second, I examine if the long memory feature in the extreme value estimators enhance prediction performance. From forecast comparisons, I find that long memory ARFIMA forecasts underperform short memory ARMA forecasts. Examining the performances of the long and short memory forecasts further, I find that the poor performance of the ARFIMA models are related to the presence of structural breaks in the forecast evaluation periods. Since (1) ARFIMA models are slow to react to structural breaks in the series because they attribute weights to distant lags when forming forecasts (Gabriel and Martins, 2004); and (2) the efficiencies of the extreme value estimators deteriorate in high volatility regimes (Brandt and Kinlay, n.d.), the ARFIMA models perform poorly. My result suggests some caution be given to Bollerslev (2001) who recommend long memory models for prediction. Third, I test whether the extreme value estimator based forecasts are competitive compared to the forecasts with information on structural breaks in volatility. Motivated by Choi et al. (2006), I construct the break-adjusted forecasts which contain information on multiple breaks in volatility. Then, I compare them with the extreme value estimator based forecasts. From the comparisons, I find that the ARFIMA forecasts underperform the break-adjusted forecasts while the ARMA forecasts perform as good as or often better than the break-adjusted forecasts. Fourth, the extreme value estimator based forecasts are compared with several conventional forecasts. From the pairwise comparison, I find that the forecasts outperform the RiskMetrics™ and GARCH (1,1) forecasts although their superiority is not always statistically meaningful. Examining the performances of the two forecasts across volatility regimes, I find that the performances of the asymmetric GARCH forecasts are close to or superior to those of the extreme value estimator based forecasts when the markets are highly volatile. This is because the volatility asymmetry is more helpful to prediction in the high volatility regimes. Fifth, I apply forecast combination techniques, which have been popular in the fields of macroeconomic forecasting and decision science, to the field of volatility forecasting. The performances of the extreme value estimator based forecasts were somewhat disappointing since the forecasts did not perform significantly better than some of the benchmark forecasts. The combining techniques may enable us to…

Kwon, Y. (2009). Extreme value estimators| Their long memory feature and forecasting performances in the U.S. stock indexes. (Thesis). The George Washington University. Retrieved from http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3352498

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Kwon, Yongjae. “Extreme value estimators| Their long memory feature and forecasting performances in the U.S. stock indexes.” 2009. Thesis, The George Washington University. Accessed September 15, 2019.
http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3352498.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Kwon Y. Extreme value estimators| Their long memory feature and forecasting performances in the U.S. stock indexes. [Thesis]. The George Washington University; 2009. Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3352498

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

► How do firms react to declining demand? One of the strategies firms could take is to exit the industry. In the current business environment,…
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▼ How do firms react to declining demand? One of the strategies firms could take is to exit the industry. In the current business environment, however, the exit strategy might not be realistic because "[i]n the modern industry, fixed and sunk costs form a relatively large proportion of overall costs which make capacity reduction difficult and costly" (Hausman, 1995). This dissertation focuses on the strategic use of price when demand is declining. While pricing is a fundamental strategy of firms, it has not been extensively studied in the existing literature on declining industries. However, this strategy could have a large impact because the industry is usually large when it is about to decline. In this situation, incumbent firms could retain or increase profit by controlling price. From an analytical perspective, the investigation of pricing highlights a new economic interaction: firms and consumers. In the existing literature, declining demand is assumed to be exogenous and unaffected by firm behavior. However, when firms set price as their strategy, they can, at least to some extent, control declining demand. Studying price setting enriches our understanding of firm behavior in declining industry. This dissertation comprises three papers. The first paper explores some consequences of declining demand in the U.S. market for photographic film due to the introduction of the digital camera. One of the main results is that the demand for film becomes more price-inelastic due to the advent of the digital camera. This causes firms to have two counteracting pricing motives: pricing higher in order to exploit price-inelastic consumers and pricing lower to delay the time at which a consumer switches to a digital camera. The purpose of the second and third papers is to investigate what theory predicts about price dynamics with declining demand. To this end, the former paper constructs a dynamic model in which a monopoly firm produces an old technology product and its demand declines as a new product appears and spreads among consumers. The paper demonstrates that the price declines over time but its path could be nonmonotonic depending on the distribution of consumers' characteristics. The third paper extends the dynamic model to allow for duopoly firms, and shows the nonmonotonicity of the price path. Through these studies, we identify a systematic property of the price path: the path could be divided into three phases, and the counteracting pricing motives explain each phase.

► This study was undertaken to examine the perceptions of social responsibility as enacted by the micro-financial institution Caja Popular Tamazula, in Jalisco Mexico. The…
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▼ This study was undertaken to examine the perceptions of social responsibility as enacted by the micro-financial institution Caja Popular Tamazula, in Jalisco Mexico. The objective was development of insight regarding perceptions held by cooperative members regarding the impact and practices of the microfinance institution within this developing region of Mexico. This survey examined awareness of and satisfaction with the practices of corporate social responsibility exhibited by the micro-financial institution. Research assistants gathered responses from two participant groups: employees (Internal) and local residents (External). The data were compared to examine the manner the institution communicates its endeavors with cooperative members. Generally, satisfaction with the institution was reported. However, limited awareness of the specific social responsibility practices was noted. The findings identified the efforts of the MFI that were perceived by cooperative members as supportive and beneficial for the development of a flourishing community. Actions for future consideration and policy development were proposed. Alternative research approaches should be considered to elicit details from cooperative members regarding perceptions and relational dynamics of the micro-financial institution within this community.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Valencia JA. Study of community and employee perceptions of corporate social responsibility at Caja Popular Tamazula, Jalisco, Mexico. [Thesis]. Argosy University/Chicago; 2015. Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3663716

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

► This dissertation explores three ways in which consumers' choices about which vehicle to purchase and how much to drive affect others. Chapter 2 seeks to…
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▼ This dissertation explores three ways in which consumers' choices about which vehicle to purchase and how much to drive affect others. Chapter 2 seeks to understand how consumer preferences for new vehicles, which may vary in ways that are correlated with consumer demographics, can lead different demographic groups to pay different prices for new vehicles. By estimating consumer preferences for new vehicles by demographic group, I show that dealers do use the distribution of preferences within a demographic group to engage in third-degree price discrimination based on consumer demographics. Additionally, controlling for this third-degree price discrimination, I find that women and single buyers pay more for the same new vehicles than male and married buyers, suggesting that either there are differences in negotiating ability that are correlated with demographics or that dealers are engaging in taste-based discrimination that is not apparent when demographic groups' preferences are not controlled for. Chapter 3, which is coauthored with Nathan Miller, shows that manufacturers adjust new vehicle price incentives in response to changes in gasoline prices in a way that suggests that manufacturers believe that consumers care about vehicle operating costs. We show that these price adjustments would bias earlier estimates of consumer demand for fuel economy that assume that vehicle prices are constant, which implies that consumers have a higher demand for fuel economy than earlier estimates and that the optimal gasoline tax may be lower than earlier estimates. Finally, Chapter 4, which is coauthored with Clifford Winston, estimates the relationship between congestion, urban land use, and home prices in order to understand how congestion tolling would affect urban land use. We find that congestion tolling would lead to denser city centers and subcenters, which would reduce urban sprawl and substantially increase the social benefits of congestion tolling relative to the costs.

This dissertation contains essays concerned with multisourcing, firm dynamics and education. The first chapter examines the empirical evidence and motivations for multisourcing – the purchase…
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▼

This dissertation contains essays concerned with multisourcing, firm dynamics and education.
The first chapter examines the empirical evidence and motivations for multisourcing – the purchase of the same input from multiple suppliers – by U.S. importers of manufacturing inputs, using the confidential customs trade data from the U.S. Census. The paper highlights a striking and novel sourcing pattern that sourcing on the intensive and extensive margins both follow power laws. To explain the empirical pattern, I model a firm's tradeoff in paying higher prices and fixed costs for engaging with multiple suppliers versus diversifying from idiosyncratic supplier risks. Empirically, the paper confirms the model predictions in the cross-section of the data by assessing the relative importance of the determinants of sourcing. Second, using the Japanese Earthquake in 2011 and other sudden supplier closures as quasi-natural experiments, I find evidence that in response to exogenous supply shocks, U.S. importers substitute towards the unaffected suppliers. As such, the multisourcing firms are in better positions to minimize production disruptions than single-sourcing firms.
The second chapter explores the dynamics of intermediate input sourcing using the confidential U.S. customs trade data from the U.S. Census. I document three key empirical facts on sourcing dynamics, and explain them using a model on supplier uncertainty and learning. I find first that new suppliers have high entry and exit rates, and second, they are given lower shares on average than incumbent suppliers. Third, over time, suppliers' shares tend to converge to an equal level. To explain these facts, I test the two key empirical implications from the Rauch and Watson model. First, supplier uncertainty leads to small orders to new suppliers, and second higher search cost leads to longer relationships. I find evidence consistent with the model and hypothesis of learning.
The third chapter studies the impact of changing tuition on students' preferences for college degrees. In particular, it analyzes the selective tuition policy changes for certain degrees in Australia in the 2000s. Using a logit discrete choice model, I find that while tuition increases discouraged students from choosing those degrees, the effect was small as the estimated price elasticity of students' preferences is low. The estimated responses are however heterogeneous across income groups; students in the lower socioeconomic groups are more responsive to tuition changes.

► In my dissertation, I explore policy-relevant topics in the pharmaceutical industry and in the intellectual property system. In Chapter 1, I begin by studying prescription…
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▼ In my dissertation, I explore policy-relevant topics in the pharmaceutical industry and in the intellectual property system.
In Chapter 1, I begin by studying prescription drug demand, and argue that standard cross-sectional demand estimates can lead to misleading substitution patterns and policy implications. The motivating empirical fact behind my research is that patients on a chronic drug the previous year will keep taking the same drug 80-90% of the time, with most of the remaining patients taking no drug rather than another substitutable drug. I show through quasi-experiments that history-dependence plays a significant role in generating the data, and that most of the continuing patients would pick another drug if their current drug were not available. I conclude by constructing an empirical model of demand around these findings, which can provide more accurate counterfactuals for analyzing firm behavior and policy questions surrounding pricing, formulary design, and the value of drug innovation.
In Chapter 2, I argue that existing models of prescription drug pricing miss out on key market features, including the importance of pricing intermediaries, known as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), and the history-dependent nature of demand found in Chapter 1. In the chapter, I look to understand the impact of PBMs on pricing, drug company profits, and overall spending. First, I contribute to the literature by constructing average negotiated prices from financial filings, which reflects the actual amount paid to drug companies per drug. These prices are quite different to the list prices commonly used in the literature. Then, I build a model to explain the negotiated prices, which incorporates the PBMs role in negotiating prices using their insurance design power. Incorporating PBMs is crucial for explaining several features of the price data, and my model suggests that PBMs reduce drug company profits by 25%, but capture up to 40% of the savings. I conclude by applying the model to evaluate vertical integration of PBMs with drug companies, as well as the pros and cons of potential government-led price negotiation. Vertical integration leads PBMs to favor drugs owned by their parent company in formulary decisions, and the government's effectiveness in negotiating prices would depend on its willingness to exclude drugs, which may be politically challenging in the US.
In Chapter 3, I turn to studying the nature of patents, a key component of the innovation system. More specifically, my co-author and I find a strong link between how patent documents are crafted and its subsequent value and usage. To do this, we exploit variation generated by patent examiners at the US Patent Office, and show that the activities of Patent Assertion Entities (PAEs), commonly referred to as patent trolls, and the probability of litigation are quite sensitive to the language in the final patent document. These results show the pitfalls of the influential ``rational ignorance'' view of the patent office, which argues that there is little…
Advisors/Committee Members: Lerner, Josh (advisor).

► This dissertation contains a collection of new theories, empirical methodologies, and data analyses for the evaluation of tax policy. In the first chapter, I investigate…
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▼ This dissertation contains a collection of new theories, empirical methodologies, and data analyses for the evaluation of tax policy.
In the first chapter, I investigate the degree to which tax deductions respond to the tax rate, and the implications this has for tax policy. I define a new tax instrument, the 'deductibility rate', which specifies the proportion of eligible expenses a taxpayer may deduct when preparing her taxes. If the utilities of gross income and deductions are separable, then the deduction elasticity reflects the revenue leakage caused by greater deductibility. To identify this elasticity, I develop the first method to decompose bunching in taxable income into its constituent parts, exploiting the removal of a notch in the tax schedule. This setting also generates an observed counterfactual density, obviating the parametric assumptions routinely made in bunching studies. Applying this method to new administrative tax data from Australia, I find that while deductions account for just 5% of taxable income, they account for 35% of the response of taxable income to the tax rate. Based on an elasticity of taxable income of 0.06, the deduction elasticity is -0.45, and the gross-income elasticity is 0.04. Consistent with standard optimal-tax logic, the sensitivity of deductions to the tax rate suggests that restricting deductions could raise welfare.
In the second chapter, I develop a new empirical method for addressing a common problem afflicting regression discontinuity (RD) designs. This design has gained wide popularity for its perceived credibility in identifying treatment effects. But there are common settings in which the necessary assumptions of the method are not satisfied. When units manipulate their value of the running variable across the treatment threshold, this can distort the average outcome near the threshold, invalidating the RD design. Some settings in which the design would otherwise be appropriate offer a comparison group for which the treatment status does not change at the threshold. In such settings, it's common to observe variables, such as lags of the outcome, that predict the outcome in the absence of manipulation. I devise a nonparametric propensity-score reweighting method that exploits these variables to correct for manipulation bias. The method relies on 'manipulation-on-observed-variables' and common-support assumptions akin to those used in standard matching and weighting exercises.
In the third chapter, I develop a new theory of tax evasion under third-party reporting. When a tax authority requires reports from third parties about a taxable transaction, tax evasion is feasible only if the reporters underreport collusively. I develop a model of third-party reporting to investigate its limits as an enforcement tool. Under what conditions is a third-party reporting regime robust to collusion between reporters? The deterrence effect of third-party reporting increases with the number of reporters per transaction and with uncertainty about the other reports. Under certain…
Advisors/Committee Members: Slemrod, Joel B (committee member), Hines Jr, James R (committee member), Smith, Jeffrey Andrew (committee member), Wolfers, Justin (committee member).

► Why do software firms sell more than one version of software to consumers? In the first chapter, I develop an analytical game theory model to…
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▼ Why do software firms sell more than one version of software to consumers? In the first chapter, I develop an analytical game theory model to examine a monopolist software firm's motivation of adopting a versioning strategy. We show that consumers' heterogeneity in requirements for software functionality and consumers' disutility from under-provisioning of software functionality are sufficient conditions for a software firm to adopt versioning strategy.Why do deals have different discount rates on a daily-deal website? In the second chapter, I develop a two-period model to capture the strategic interaction between a daily-deal publisher and a merchant who wants to offer a deal to consumers on the publisher's website. I show that a merchant's optimal discount rate strategy and participation decision depends on the trade-offs between four effects - advertising, sampling, cannibalization and revenue sharing. Moreover, I recommend that a daily-deal publisher should take into account a merchant's marginal cost, proportion of informed consumers and consumer characteristics in formulating an appropriately customized revenue sharing contract for the merchant.Do consumers benefit from using an online retailer's recommender system? In the third chapter, I develop an analytical framework to examine the optimal recommender system strategy of an online multi-product retailer and the effect of the recommender system on consumer surplus. I find that when the recommender system is relatively accurate, the retailer will recommend products that are never a perfect match to the recipients of the recommendations. I also find that improving the precision of a relatively accurate recommender system leads to a reduction in consumer surplus.

The ecosystem service (ES) approach is a means of evaluating service value flows from ecosystems to humans for their well-being. The approach suggests that ecosystem…
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The ecosystem service (ES) approach is a means of evaluating service value flows from ecosystems to humans for their well-being. The approach suggests that ecosystem functions are divided into categories according to the benefits derived and utilized by beneficiaries. The ES approach has become a tool for public and private decision-makers, driven by the need to more accurately incorporate environmental externalities into the value creation processes of economic actors.
This research addresses two knowledge gaps within the ES literature. First, a service-centric approach to ES offerings is lacking, resulting in misuse of the appropriate concepts and terms when discussing their role in value networks and value creation. Second, there is limited available knowledge about how to efficiently internalize ES offerings within value networks.
In the first article, a service-dominant value creation (SVC) framework, with supporting terms and concepts, was developed to guide interdisciplinary discussions about the role of ES offerings within value creation processes. The term value-in-impact was proposed as a means for discussing the trade-offs and impacts concerning ES offerings within those processes.
The subsequent three articles addressed the following design aspects of Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes: (1) sensitivity to parameter inputs, (2) price volatility impacts on service providers, and (3) behavioural economic contributions. Consideration for trade-offs among ES offerings, and between ES offerings and economic objectives were also incorporated. The results indicated that the holistic accounting of ES indicators, to determine the optimal species mixtures, and uncorrelated ES price interactions, to determine the optimal allocation of forest for conservation, led to ecological and financial diversification benefits for service providers. Nudging service providers also led to more socially efficient ES provisioning. In each case, the proposed Ecosystem Service Expectation Value (ESEV) was used to more accurately describe the perpetual provisioning of multiple ES offerings on forestland.

► The valuation of ecosystem services through economic methods has exponentially increased in last twenty years. However these studies seldom incorporate the specific influence of the…
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▼ The valuation of ecosystem services through economic methods has exponentially increased in last twenty years. However these studies seldom incorporate the specific influence of the study sites’ ecological development on the local populations’ economic valuation. The primary aim of this thesis is to ecologically and economically value the societal benefits provided by four managed realignment sites on the Humber estuary, UK. Choice experiment and contingent valuation interview surveys were conducted with local residents, eliciting their willingness to pay (WTP) values for both maintenance of their closest site, and access to it. Results from the economic valuation for each site were then related to their ecological status, to see whether these two aspects were interconnected. Generalised Linear Modelling and Decision Tree Analysis, as well as exploratory techniques such as Pearsons Chi-square, coplot analysis and principal component analysis, were employed to determine which explanatory variables, such as socio-demographic details or details regarding the participants’ interaction with the site, were significant influences on their WTP values. The main influencing explanatory variables proved to influence both WTP maintenance values and WTP access values in a similar manner. These included the distance that the participant lived from the site, the frequency which they visited, whether they had knowledge of the site prior to completing the survey, and their annual household income. Average WTP for maintenance values for the four sites were: £7.32, £3.13, £9.29 and £6.96. Average WTP for access values were: £4.64, £0.28, £6.20 and £4.43, suggesting that participants are willing to pay more for the non-use values that maintenance of the site provides, rather than use-values provided by access to the site. In addition, the sites with higher WTP values are also the sites which have a more developed ecological status, such as a wider area of vegetation coverage and higher diversity and abundance of fauna. Furthermore, the sites which offered supplementary facilities such as easier admittance for visitors through designated footpaths and disabled access, specialised apparatus for interaction with the fauna (such as bird hides), information boards or car parking areas; received a higher valuation from the local population than the sites which were difficult to access or had no facilities. These additional facilities are provided to enhance the participants’ ability to appreciate the ecology of the site, therefore results show that the sites with a more developed and diverse ecological system will have a higher economic value than those which have a less developed ecology. The findings have implications for policy makers in terms of future managed realignment site creation. The results suggest that public involvement at conception through to implementation ultimately results in a higher ecological and economic value of the site. This also encourages a higher visit frequency through creating a site which is not only effective…

► The gravity model is a workhorse for econometric studies of the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Despite its initial lack of theoretical basis,…
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▼ The gravity model is a workhorse for econometric studies of the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Despite its initial lack of theoretical basis, the model has been successfully derived from various trade theories. The latest theoretical derivation by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) reveals that prior gravity studies have made the critical error of omitting the multilateral resistance variable, which results in biased estimates. Other recent studies have highlighted empirical issues with the commonly used procedure of log-linearizing the gravity model and estimating the parameters using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Silva and Tenreyro (2006) point out that this method yields inconsistent estimates in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2004) show that the concomitant practice of dropping observations with zero trade values (because the log-linearized model is not defined for such observations) will also give rise to biased results. To deal with these two issues of inconsistency and bias, we estimate the gravity model in its multiplicative form. Both cross-sectional and panel data analysis are performed, employing Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator and Poisson Quasi-Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimator respectively. Whilst analyzing the impact of RTAs in the light of the new estimation methods, this study will also re-evaluate the impact of the Asean Free Trade Area in the context of other major RTAs.

► Using a measure of cashflow risk derived from analyst forecasts, I find that cashflow risk offers a partial explanation for the value-growth anomaly. In…
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▼ Using a measure of cashflow risk derived from analyst forecasts, I find that cashflow risk offers a partial explanation for the value-growth anomaly. In particular, the lowest asset growth portfolio has a higher earnings beta than the highest asset growth portfolio. Approximately cashflow risk measured by earnings beta carries a significant positive risk premium of 1.24% with a t-value of 3.51.

► Since the decision to adopt and become an online shopper is non random, it is likely that a sample of Internet customers is a…
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▼ Since the decision to adopt and become an online shopper is non random, it is likely that a sample of Internet customers is a selected one, making non adopters an inappropriate control group for them. Even within adopters, the endogeneity of the selection of the channel prevents us from estimating the effect of the Internet channel by simply comparing behavior between online and brick-and-mortar purchases. The chapters of this dissertation tackle different sides of the impact of e-commerce on economic outcomes; the unifying trait is a common theoretical framework aiming to address both of the methodological concerns mentioned above. The first chapter provides background information on the supermarket chain that provided the data, on their online division, and on the grocery industry. I introduce the main scanner data whose features are instrumental to my identification strategy. It contains information on purchases for a panel of customers of a supermarket chain who shop with the chain <i> both</i> online and in traditional stores. I am in a privileged position to reduce concerns over sample selection as I am comparing the <i>same </i> people shopping on different channels for identical good at the same grocery chain; an almost ideal control. Moreover, observing the same households through time allows me to model the channel selection decision, addressing potential biases arising from its endogeneity. The last part of Chapter 1 sketches the theoretical framework used in the rest of the dissertation. The model allows customers behavior to be affected by <i>selection</i>—since agents' choice on the distribution channel they want to use for their shopping is endogenous—that has to be disentangled from the <i>treatment </i> effect of the online channel itself. Chapter 2 investigates the effect of shopping online on customers disposition towards exploring new brands. I show that households are 9% less likely to purchase a cereal brand they have not tried before when they are shopping online. I estimate a fully parameterized version of the model introduced in Chapter 1, modeling consumers selecting the shopping channel where they want to buy and their demand, conditional on that decision. The results suggest that the driving force behind the reduced form result is the search for reduction of the shopping cost. The cost is particularly salient for a repeated activity involving low price items, such as grocery. This causes preference for usage of the <i>past shopping history list</i> feature on the website that allows reduction in cost of browsing but only allow to buy previously purchased items. The counterfactual simulations gauge the role played by website design in affecting competitive outcomes. While Chapter 2 tries to disentangle the treatment effect of the Internet channel on demand, Chapter 3 focuses on the selection part. I study how decisions on the bundle of grocery goods to be bought affect the decision on the shopping channel for the purchase. I focus on heavy and bulky…

► Economic globalization and digital technologies are disruptive forces in local and regional economies. The mobility of capital assets is increasing as business seeks global…
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▼ Economic globalization and digital technologies are disruptive forces in local and regional economies. The mobility of capital assets is increasing as business seeks global strategic business alliances, access to foreign markets, and favorable operating cost advantages. Business and industry lifecycles are shortening as digital technologies are disrupting legacy business models. This global economic paradigm is challenging economic development efforts to attract private investment, grow jobs, and facilitate sustainable economic health in local and regional economies. As economic developers respond to these new economic contingencies, will they continue to embrace institutionalized strategies from earlier economic paradigms, or will they support strategies that respond to the new dynamics of this global and digital economy? This qualitative study investigated this question using the Delphi study method with a panel of economic development experts. An iterative series of three online surveys was administered with 30 Certified Economic Developers, including a round-one survey presenting an open-ended question to capture the opinions of study participants on strategies to promote economic development. Opinions that emerged from the round-one survey were presented to study participants in round-two and round-three online surveys with the goal of facilitating consensus. The study sought to answer whether the panel of experts agreed on traditional economic development strategies, or embraced new strategies to respond to contingencies of the global and digital economic paradigm.

Gibbs, S. A. (2018). Economic Development in a Global Economy| A Delphi Study of Economic Development Experts. (Thesis). University of Phoenix. Retrieved from http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10786063

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Gibbs, Scott A. “Economic Development in a Global Economy| A Delphi Study of Economic Development Experts.” 2018. Thesis, University of Phoenix. Accessed September 15, 2019.
http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10786063.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Gibbs SA. Economic Development in a Global Economy| A Delphi Study of Economic Development Experts. [Internet] [Thesis]. University of Phoenix; 2018. [cited 2019 Sep 15].
Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10786063.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Gibbs SA. Economic Development in a Global Economy| A Delphi Study of Economic Development Experts. [Thesis]. University of Phoenix; 2018. Available from: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10786063

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

► Above all I thank my advisor Ato Assefa Desta for his precious support, professional advices and comments. I also thank Department of Accounting and Finance,…
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▼ Above all I thank my advisor Ato Assefa Desta for his precious support, professional
advices and comments. I also thank Department of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of
Business and Economics, Addis Ababa University for the provision of financial support.
My special thank go to Mr. Abebaw Bahru and Mr. Girum Arefaynie for their valuable
material and idea support from beginning up to the end of this project work. I am grateful
to all the staffs of the office of the federal auditor general, especially for those who
participated in giving responses for the interviews and questionnaires and provision of
necessary secondary data.
My deepest gratitude also goes to Mrs. Azalech Assefa for her consistent love and full of
life encouragement.
Finally, I wish to express my sincere gratitude to my friends Eshetu, Melaku, Martha,
Genet, Andualem, and all my family for their superior support.
Advisors/Committee Members: (Ato) Assefa Desta (advisor).

Lukas, B. (2008). Challenges Faced by Ethiopian Federal Government Auditors: the Case of the Office of the Federal Auditor General
. (Thesis). Addis Ababa University. Retrieved from http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/6680

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Chicago Manual of Style (16th Edition):

Lukas, Beyashe. “Challenges Faced by Ethiopian Federal Government Auditors: the Case of the Office of the Federal Auditor General
.” 2008. Thesis, Addis Ababa University. Accessed September 15, 2019.
http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/6680.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

MLA Handbook (7th Edition):

Lukas, Beyashe. “Challenges Faced by Ethiopian Federal Government Auditors: the Case of the Office of the Federal Auditor General
.” 2008. Web. 15 Sep 2019.

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Council of Science Editors:

Lukas B. Challenges Faced by Ethiopian Federal Government Auditors: the Case of the Office of the Federal Auditor General
. [Thesis]. Addis Ababa University; 2008. Available from: http://etd.aau.edu.et/dspace/handle/123456789/6680

Note: this citation may be lacking information needed for this citation format:Not specified: Masters Thesis or Doctoral Dissertation

Goce Delcev University

30.
Jakimov, Aleksandar.
„Prevention, planning and managing crisis of companies, as the greatest leadership challenge for success in the 21st century“.

► Crisis management has never been more important. Like enterprises, so and countries are constantly facing crisis. Crisis management requires different management skills than those required…
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▼ Crisis management has never been more important. Like enterprises, so and countries are constantly facing crisis. Crisis management requires different management skills than those required under normal conditions. Crisis managers are architects of change. In difficult and complicated times for the company they must show business intuition, broad business knowledge and skill for communicating with people.
Crisis management is the art of making decision to prevent or mitigate the consequences of the crisis conditions. This means making decisions about the future of the company while you are under stress and lack of key information.
We live in a world where crisis occur more frequently. A world in which we are witnessing the strongest nor the most powerful companies and countries are not immune to crisis. It is the best proof of the lack of true leaders.
Key words: crisis leader, innovation, organizational culture, communication, crisis plan