Lee resigns. And now…the special !!!

So! Rep. Chris Lee has resigned in the wake of a Gawker report that he sent a topless photo to a Craigslist personal ad. Politically, what’s next?

A special election! Under the Public Officers Law and Election Law, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has to formally call a special election to replace him, since this vacancy will occur so early in Lee’s term (less than 40, if my math is correct). Under the Election Law, the party candidates to succeed Lee are chosen not by a petitioning and primary process, but by a weighted vote of the county party chairs in the district. Lee’s district, the 26th, spans parts of Erie, Niagara and Monroe counties (nothern suburbs of Buffalo, western suburbs of Rochester) as well as the GLOW counties: Genesee, Livingston, Wyoming and Orleans.

Josh Vlasto, a Cuomo spokesman, did not immediately know when a special would be called. (In fact, we were chatting on the phone when this news first broke…kudos to Josh for a quick, on-the-fly no-comment.)

The district is drawn to accommodate Republicans; if you look at the map, it and the district held by Rep. Louise Slaughter run parallel to gerrymander the voters. Which brings us to the great variable here: redistricting!

It’s unclear exactly how the process will be handled, but according to Census data, New York will lose two seats in Congress. New lines must be in place for the 2012 election, and it’s unclear whether they’ll be drawn in a non-partisan way or in the partisan Battle Royale that has characterized New York redistricting for decades. Under that system, recall, the Democrat-dominated Assembly and Republican-dominated Senate draw the lines for their own members, and come to some happy medium with congressional districts. It usually protects incumbents, but with the loss of two seats, well, it’s a musical chairs game where two kids go home crying.

That said, there are already some candidates in the mix. (I started talking to people the minute I saw Gawker’s post; this is a distillation of that reporting). Also, New York law doesn’t require that a candidate live within the district’s border — just be a state resident! — so people who are close enough can move in once they get elected. Here are some Republicans, with the caveat that this is all pretty preliminary and speculative:

— Ex-Assemblyman Jack Quinn. His father served in Congress, and Jack just waged a very public (but unsuccessful) campaign against now-Sen. Tim Kennedy. By phone, Quinn confirmed he was interested, adding “I may be the only candidate out there who is just coming off an election where we put together a plan to see what the people of western New York need.”

— Assemblywoman Jane Corwin. She comes from the tony suburb of Clarence and lives just doors away from Erie County Executive Chris Collins, an ally. She has a solid profile — a family woman, a successful businesswoman, a (albeit short) legislative career — and the ability to raise money or self-fund.

— Ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds. It as his seat originally, and one source suggested he’s getting antsy as a lobbyist for Nixon Peabody.

— Assemblyman Jim Hayes.He’s a work horse, serving as the GOP’s ranking member on the Assembly Ways & Means Committee. But one source suggested he’s been cautious about runs for higher offices in the past, and he’s got a pretty solid perch in the Assembly.

— Sen. George Maziarz. The Niagara County Republican is short in stature but not ambition. He has long hoped for a greater role in the Senate — he was appointed to its number three slot when the GOP won back the majority in 2010 — but has always been treated as someone with his own best interests in mind. The other senators are the just-elected Pat Gallivan and Mike Ranzenhofer, who keeps a relatively mellow profile.

— Maggie Brooks. According to Bill Nojay, a Rochester-based pundit, she’s long coveted a congressional seat but is wary of taking on Slaughter. Will this be her opportunity?

— Carl Paladino. I floated it as a joke, but then a source e-mailed to say it’s actually being considered. Paladino, a wealthy Western New York developer, was the GOP’s candidate for governor.

I heard two names on the Democratic side, Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz and Clerk Kathy Hochul. At least one of them is expected to also run against Erie County Executive Chris Collins, too.