If 62 MPG Becomes Law...

Negotiations are going on in Washington that could radically change the design of cars and trucks over the next 13 years.

As you probably know, new federal fuel economy and emissions rules took effect Jan. 1, requiring automakers to hit 35.5 mpg corporate average fuel economy by the 2016 model year.

That might only be for starters. Automakers and regulators from the EPA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the California Air Resources Board are now haggling over a tougher proposal initiated by President Obama. That plan calls for a CAFE range of 47 mpg to 62 mpg by the 2025 model year.

Industry spokespeople say the 62 mpg CAFE, supported by environmentalists, would be too costly and may not be feasible.

One industry estimate says hitting 62 mpg would require widespread vehicle electrification, and add almost $10,000 to the price of a new vehicle. Federal agencies say the cost would be $3,500 per vehicle, at most, and would be offset by fuel-pump savings.

Barring an unexpected technological breakthrough, I think that a 62 mpg mandate, by 2025, would force the auto industry to produce vehicles that motorists wouldn't want to own. For sake of discussion, though, let's assume that 62 mpg is the goal. In that case, as unpopular as raising the gas tax is, I'd prefer going this route over increasing average fuel economy through CAFE standards. What are your thoughts on this?

I am very interested in that too. I have heard estimates all over the map, including opinion that the rates will actually go down. The argument is that generating capacity will not need to increase because recharging will be done at night when other demand is low. Therefore, the fixed costs will not increase and will be spread out over a larger number of kilowatts delivered. However, this depends on just how many vehicles are charging at night and on the effects of running the power plants at higher output 24 hours a day so I am dubious.

I guess we will all be driving eggs with bike tires. You can't legislate physics. Even the best hybrids only get into the 50's on average. More electrification will help for those who drive short range, but "plug-ins" will be running on coal or nuclear power. Is that a good thing?

62 mpg is the raw number - Prius is already well ahead of that proposed 2025 standard in the year 2011. The new compacts like Focus and Cruze are at 50+ mpg on this scale, as are larger hybrid sedans like Fusion hybrid.

It won't be hard to get to 62 mpg for cars, I don't think. The problem is for automakers to get their fleet average to 62 if they also sell trucks, SUVs and large crossovers. But if they could sell 100K 75-mpg compacts per year for instance, they could sell lots of those big guzzler vehicles even if they made only high-40s (which would equate to a rating in the low 30s on the Monroney sticker).

This isn't as extreme as it sounds, and it is certainly a much needed step. But I'm sure the automakers will succeed in diluting it for the sake of their profit margins, so I'm just hoping the feds do instigate at least the much weaker 47 mpg standard.

The administration wants new American cars and trucks to average as much as 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025, roughly double the current level. Regardless of what the final number is, the big question remains, will American motorists want to buy these cars? The verdict for hybrids and electric vehicles so far is, not so much.

Regardless of what the final number is, the big question remains, will American motorists want to buy these cars?

Ask yourself what gasoline will cost in 2025 and the question answers itself With gas at $7-$8/gallon we'll want 75 or even 100mpg. Mileage standards have saved the bacon of the Detroit makers more than once in our lifetimes.

and I think will punish any politician who raises it more than 5 cents a gallon...

So I'd say don't waste your time hoping for that one. But I agree it would help.

I believe in CAFE and I think it has already helped bring about a revolution in internal combustion engines since 1975.

56mpg is really more like 42 by the way the mpg is measured today. A few cars are already reaching or exceeding that standard 12 years before 2025. Another decade of progress on ICEs should make it work for cars. Trucks, SUVs, and Vans are tougher, but I think they can be done too with smart engineering.

These gas milage requirements will mean the end of SUVs and performance cars. Who is going to want to buy a 2025 Mustang with 90hp and an electric heater for power? I don't want to get too political but this is just more class warfare by the people in Washington. Unfortunately like many of the hairbrained schemes hatched in that city it will end up slamming the middle class. What did they say? An extra $10000 for a car that will get beat by a Tata Nano? Baloney. :mad:

I'm buying a 2015 Mustang GT and by 2025 I'll own the fastest car in America.

yeah. And the number they are floating now is not 62 but 56. Furthermore 56 is by the inflated way of calculating mpg that the feds came up with in 1975. By today's more realistic figure the real number is likely to be something like 42.

So, with c. 42 the real target, by sales weighted average some can be below that, even substantially below, as long as they are balanced by vehicles above that.

If Ford, for instance, pops out hundreds of thousands of Fiestas a year with advanced 3 cylinder ecoboost ICE engines that get 60 mpg by the 1975 measure, that would allow them to sell a few 6 cylinder ecoboost (turbo) Mustang's that will probably equal in performance any mass production Mustang built and still let Ford meet CAFE in 2025.

When CAFE standards were first proposed that was supposed to be the end of performance cars. It was for a little while but then the technology evolved that allows better performance and that's because the makers knew that people wanted it.

The bottom line is that the cost of fuel is a bigger determinant of how much performance you can have than CAFE Standards. How far are you gonna go in a 30MPG Mustang if gas is $8.00/gal?

But I think we will have performance. A Ford 2.0 ecoboost turbo has about as much power as a 5.0 V8 from the 80s. And yet it's dramatically more efficient. Pop that puppy in a mustang and you're done. Don't even need to worry about making it a hybrid. You'll still have to sell some 1.0 liter ecoboost fiestas, but that can and will be done...

I agree that the feds haven't given us a lot of reasons to trust em. To me it's more the two wars we're in, but never mind on that ot situation.

Bottom line is that 50 mpg CAFE is going to happen whether people like it (me) or not (you). But I think there's hope for people who like performance and economy--which is both of us and and millions of others out there.

I just looked up the stats for the pretty much top of the line Mustang from 25 years ago in 1986 (argh, time flies, I'm getting old!). The 302 was actually heavily revised for that year:

"In 1986, Ford released the first multiport fuel-injected 302 cu in (4.9 L) V8, rated at 200 hp (150 kW). With high swirl E6SE heads, the early production High Output EFI engine intake possessed higher compression and dual exhausts."

Focus ST powerplant marks another milestone in Ford goal to offer 90 percent of its North American lineup with EcoBoost by 2013

If they are putting this in a high end Focus, it is not an engine that is impossible for people to afford. It's probably only a bit more than an old tech V8. And yet it gets more power. Great work Ford!

Bet you could put one of those 2.0 ecoboost engines in a full size truck and it would perform just fine and get 30 mpg hwy...

Which I think Ford is working it's way to slowly. The V6 Ecoboost has a good take rate in the F150. As people get over the need for a V8 and they find the V6 to work just fine, then the 4 will be the next step.

Bet you could put one of those 2.0 ecoboost engines in a full size truck and it would perform just fine and get 30 mpg hwy...

Personally, I'd have reservations about an engine that small in something that heavy. I'd think it would constantly be working its little butt off, and would wear out.

But, who knows? It might work out just fine. I'm sure back in the late 60's and early 70's, people would have thought the idea of something as small as a 3.8 V-6 in a nearly 4,000 lb car getting 30 mpg on the highway, being able to do 0-60 in around 7.5 seconds, AND being fairly reliable to the stuff of pure science fiction.

But, I just described my 11 year old Park Avenue Ultra. And, since then, cars have only improved for the most part. So, I'm sure that the auto makers will be able to get more hp and fuel economy out of ever smaller engines as time goes by.

andre: Good point. But a lot of people buy something like an F-150 more for style and light duty, not really for super heavy duty stuff. For them, once they get used to the idea, a full sized cab plus truck that can get 30 mpg on the highway will be a plus. And more than that it will be required whether people or manufacturers like it or not by the new CAFE requirements for 2025.

People who truly need heavy duty trucks with huge towing capacity will still be able to get an ecoboost 6 or 8 cylinder, but my guess is that in a dozen years a large 4 might become standard....Just a guess.