Saturday, 6 April 2013

Early Signs Of The "Aleppoisation" Of Southern Syria

Since the arrival of weapons purchased from Croatia by Saudi Arabia, and smuggled into Syria from Jordan, there's been a significant increase in opposition activity in the south of the country, centering around Daraa. There's been a number of reports of military bases being over-run by armed groups using these weapons, and various equipment captured from these bases.

When talking about the south of the country one thing that's very important is understanding the difference in equipment between that region and other parts of the country. Generally the opposition in the south have been poorly equipped compared to the groups in the north and around Deir Ez-Zor, so the arrival of large amounts of anti-tank weapons has made a significant difference.

One of the most significant recent acquisitions, reportedly from captured bases, are MANPADS, with the following videos showing examples reportedly captured from a number of locations in the south

We can see why this could be very significant by looking at how events played out in the north of the country. As the opposition in the north captured more bases and more equipment it allowed them to attack increasingly heavily defended bases, with the capture of anti-aircraft weapons, like MANPADS, allowing them to defend from attacks from the air, which in turn meant they could deploy captured artillery and tanks, which were essential in attacking heavily defended bases.

So what I believe we are seeing in the south of the country is what I like to call "Aleppoisation", where we're now seeing in the south of the country the same sequence of events that led to the current situation in the Aleppo region. As far as I can tell the arrival of the Croatian weapons played a key role in this turn of events, and in the coming months it could be highly significant.