The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in September 2005. This follows increases of 0.4% in each of the three previous months.

In September 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in all states, with the largest increases occurring in Tasmania (+0.8%), Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory (all +0.6%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.3% in September 2005. This follows an increase of 0.5% in August and a decrease of 0.2% in July 2005.

All states except Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory had a decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimate, with the largest decreases occurring in Tasmania (-1.6%), South Australia (-1.1%), Queensland and Western Australia (both -0.7%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 0.8% in September 2005 compared with August 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 1.0%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 0.6%.

Australian turnover increased by 2.7% in September 2005 compared with September 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 3.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 1.9%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 0.5% in the September quarter 2005. This follows a 0.4% increase in the June quarter 2005. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.5% in the September quarter 2005.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for September 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

16 816.4

128.9

Change from preceding month ($m)

138.4

36.1

% change from preceding month (%)

0.8

0.2

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After five months of moderate growth in the trend there was weak growth in September 2005. Food retailing and Clothing and soft good retailing have had at least seven months of moderate growth.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for seven months. Western Australia has had seven months of strong growth, while New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have had at least four months of moderate or strong growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been weak trend growth for seven months. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had at least three months of moderate or strong growth, while New South Wales has had a decline in the trend estimate for five months.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been six months of moderate growth in the trend. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth in the trend for three, eight, five and ten months respectively. There has been a decline in the trend estimate for Western Australia in each of the last three months.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been three months of weak growth in the trend. Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least four months of strong growth. New South Wales has had weak growth for six months, while Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for three and eight months respectively.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for each of the last five months. New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for eight, four, five and five months respectively. South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had moderate or strong growth for at least five months.

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate has been in decline for 11 months. New South Wales (15 months), Victoria (four months) and Western Australia (11 months) have had a decline in the trend estimate.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for four months. After four months of slightly weaker growth in the trend estimate for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) compared with Total industries (including Hospitality and services), the rate of growth in the trend estimate was the same in September 2005.

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After three months of moderate growth there was weak growth in September 2005. After at least five months of strong growth, Victoria and Queensland had moderate growth in September 2005. In contrast, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for 12 months. There has been a decline in the trend estimate for Department stores (five months), Recreational good retailing (eight months), Other retailing (over 12 months) and Hospitality and services (three months). There has been moderate growth in Food retailing for six months.

VICTORIA

After four months of moderate growth in the trend estimate, there has been weak growth for three months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate or strong growth in the trend for at least three months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been seven months of moderate growth in the trend. All industries, except Recreational good retailing and Other retailing, have had moderate or strong growth in the trend for at least five months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing have had strong growth for eight and five months respectively.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate trend growth for four months. Food retailing, Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth for four, three and five months respectively. In contrast, Household good retailing has had a decline in the trend estimate for eight months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

After four months of strong growth in the trend estimate, there has been moderate growth for two months. Food retailing and Household good retailing have had strong growth for at least five months. There has been a decline in the trend estimate for Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing for three and 11 months respectively.

TASMANIA

There has been strong trend growth for three months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for ten, four and seven months respectively.

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