Mitchell Pearce not the man to lead NSW to Origin glory

The next NSW Origin star to go down will surely be the coach, Laurie Daley, ruled out due to a strained smile. He will join the sidelined Andrew Fifita (torn contract) and Greg Bird (suspension of disbelief). And don’t expect Prime Minister Tony Abbott to present the Origin trophy after his season-ending broken promises. The humble spectator, served up with the annual ''This is our year'' and ''Mitchell Pearce ready to fire'' teasers, might choose to withdraw from proceedings with a badly pulled leg.

Amid all the misfortunes that have hit the Blues at just the wrong time, the biggest blow might have been when Pearce was cleared to play. For the past seven seasons, Pearce has stood in the unusual junction of being the best halfback in New South Wales and the worst halfback in Australia. Until this week, there has been surprisingly little debate about his place in the Origin team. Daley would like to maintain continuity and consistency. Pearce’s record for NSW has certainly been continuous and consistent.

The Blues’ strength in the forwards is, if anything, emphasised by the need for replacements. Bird, their standout player for the past five years, is unavailable, as are Fifita and Glenn Stewart. No problem. Into the front line come the likes of Boyd Cordner, Aaron Woods, Ryan Hoffman, Beau Scott and Tony Williams. NSW is a veritable factory of grunt. Out on the wings, the Blues also have a clear advantage.

As in recent seasons, NSW are far superior to Queensland in all the positions that have the least impact on who wins Origin. Non-key positions, like non-core promises, are not the centre of the argument.

Through sheer will power and muscle, the Blues have run Queensland close for some years now. Their blunt instruments are punishing. Paul Gallen, Bird, Anthony Watmough and company have brought them to the brink. The muscle has done its job.

Where the Blues have fallen short is above the ears: when they have needed their playmakers to produce tries, the combination has not gelled. Whether the hooker has been Robbie Farah or Michael Ennis, the five-eighth Todd Carney or James Maloney or Jamie Soward, or the fullback Hayne or Anthony Minichiello or Josh Dugan or Brett Stewart, the common factor in this not gelling has been Pearce. Look at him in club games, and it is understandable why the selectors have kept choosing him. Yet in Origin, Pearce has not possessed the directorial skills to bring the brilliance of his outside men into the game at the right times. You don’t need CCTV footage from Kings Cross to realise that in the brains department, there’s a bit missing.

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One reason Pearce has not been able to bring his club form to Origin is that the Roosters don’t have to play against Queensland. Another is that the spark and dynamism for the Roosters’ attacking play originates in Jake Friend, their influential and underrated hooker. Friend does for Pearce what Cameron Smith does for Cooper Cronk, by reading the play, choosing runners and directing his passing so that Pearce can hit the line fast when defences are flat or back-pedalling. And a No.7 gets a bit more leeway from defences when they’ve got half an eye on Sonny Bill.

Friend, of course, is a Queenslander. Just for academic purposes, imagine if pigs could fly and Queensland could donate their surplus playmakers to NSW. Friend, Daly Cherry-Evans, Anthony Milford, Ben Barba, Chris Sandow, Ben Hunt, Matt Ballin …they’ve got more than enough to spare.

Throw in Kiwis Shaun Johnson and Kieran Foran, even Benji Marshall, and English five-eighth Gareth Widdop, and you begin to wonder where in the pecking order Pearce and Maloney really stand.

Queensland has had one telling and perhaps insurmountable advantage in their brain stem, which is that Smith, Cronk and Billy Slater play together every week. Johnathan Thurston spends two months a year playing alongside them for Queensland and Australia.

Meanwhile, Pearce, Farah and Hayne, even though they are now Origin veterans, still give the impression they do not read each other very well. Maybe the answer is to turn this weakness into a strength, and play more ad hoc football, freeing up talents like Hayne, Brett Morris and Michael Jennings for moments of individual genius. In the decision-making spine, NSW are essentially playing Melbourne, and the club teams with the most success against the Storm have been the masters of improvisation, the Warriors and the Raiders. Benji, in his pomp, always troubled them. Set-play outfits don’t go so well when they’re confused.

Sadly, the genius of ad hoc football, Terry Campese, has been so slowed by injury that his Origin time seems to have passed. If Campese had been able to play more than one Origin match, would Queensland have won eight straight series?

Perhaps the NSW playmaker of the future is not a structured halfback, a poor man’s Cronk, but instead a risk taker. Adam Reynolds and Luke Brooks seem best equipped to grow into that role. Or maybe the Titans’ Albert Kelly, even if, having grown up in Macksville and being a cousin of Greg Inglis, he is claimed by Queensland. By the end of this series, it’s hard to imagine that one of them won’t have been given his chance.