As our economics team has highlighted, the policy implication of most pressing concern is the expiration of Bush tax cuts. They estimate an impact of 2% annualized reduction in household income worth about 1.3% of GDP, and that such an increase if not reversed could trigger a double-dip recession.

...The political shifts affect that outcome with one school of thought that a divided congress raises the odds of no legislation (and hence a default scenario of expiration). In the face of increasing evidence of a slowing economy, a compromise to avoid a fiscal tightening that could exacerbate the risks of a double dip likely rises, in our view. The question will be one of timing – can a compromise be reached ahead of the election (in our view, unlikely), in a lame duck session (again unlikely).

...In our view, that leaves a retroactive extension passed in January as the most likely compromise. But the damage to confidence in the intervening period may already be done under such a potential scenario. A further deceleration in the data may yet change that assessment, but in the intervening period, political uncertainty will not positively contribute to the economic outlook already diminished by a successive wave of negative data.

I can summarize this in one sentence: Democrats are economic illiterates.

By the way, you can also thank John McCain for the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. 'Cause he's a 'maverick'.

Government anti-poverty programs... now serve a record one in six Americans and are continuing to expand... More than 50 million Americans are on Medicaid, the federal-state program aimed principally at the poor...

...More than 40 million people get food stamps, an increase of nearly 50% during the economic downturn, according to government data through May. The program has grown steadily for three years...

...Close to 10 million receive unemployment insurance, nearly four times the number from 2007. Benefits have been extended by Congress eight times beyond the basic 26-week program, enabling the long-term unemployed to get up to 99 weeks of benefits. Caseloads peaked at nearly 12 million in January — "the highest numbers on record," says Christine Riordan of the National Employment Law Project, which advocates for low-wage workers.

More than 4.4 million people are on welfare, an 18% increase during the recession...

One of the few undisputed triumphs of American government of the past 20 years – the sweeping welfare reform programme that sent millions of dole claimants back to work – has been plunged into jeopardy by billions of dollars in state handouts included in the president’s controversial economic stimulus package...

...Robert Rector, a prominent welfare researcher who was one of the architects of Clinton's 1996 reform bill, warned last week that Obama’s stimulus plan was a “welfare spendathon” that would amount to the largest one-year increase in government handouts in American history... Despite dire warnings that reduced benefits for single mothers and deadlines on entitlement would create a social calamity – one liberal senator warned at the time that children would be “sleeping on grates” – the 1996 reforms cut welfare rolls from more than 5m families in 1995 to below 2m a decade later without a discernible increase in hardship.

In other words, the Obama 'Stimulus' program was intended to massively expand the welfare state. But wait! There's more!

...Out-of-wedlock births are strongly related to welfare dependency. A 1 percent increase in the welfare dependent population in a state increases the number of births to single mothers by about 0.5 percent...

...Welfare dependency reduces employment. A 1 percent increase in the dependent population increases the number who are not employed by about 0.1 percent... An increase in welfare benefits reduces employment by increasing the number of welfare dependents. An increase in AFDC benefits by 1 percent of average income increases the number who are not employed by about 0.5.

In other words, if you ratchet up welfare benefits, you get reduced employment and more single-parent families.

In 1995, Dr. Patrick Fagan wrote a seminal summary of the situation: "Over the past thirty years, the rise in violent crime parallels the rise in families abandoned by fathers... High-crime neighborhoods are characterized by high concentrations of families abandoned by fathers... The rate of violent teenage crime corresponds with the number of families abandoned by fathers... "Neighborhoods with a high degree of religious practice are not high-crime neighborhoods... Even in high-crime inner-city neighborhoods, well over 90 percent of children from safe, stable homes do not become delinquents. By contrast only 10 percent of children from unsafe, unstable homes in these neighborhoods avoid crime... Criminals capable of sustaining marriage gradually move away from a life of crime after they get married."

"[R]esearch strongly suggests both that young adults and teens raised in single-parent homes are more likely to commit crimes, and that communities with high rates of family fragmentation (especially unwed childbearing) suffer higher crime rates as a result."

For example, a 23-year study found that nearly 90% of the change in violent crime rates can be attributed to the change in percentages of out-of-wedlock births (divorce rates, on the other hand, had no relationship with crime).

In The Atlantic Monthly, Barbara Dafoe Whitehead noted that the "relationship [between single-parent families and crime] is so strong that controlling for family configuration erases the relationship between race and crime and between low income and crime. This conclusion shows up time and again in the literature. The nation's mayors, as well as police officers, social workers, probation officers, and court officials, consistently point to family break up as the most important source of rising rates of crime."

Let me repeat the most important statement -- "controlling for family configuration erases the relationship between race and crime and between low income and crime."

Single-parent families generally lead to increased levels of crime; and there are no significant differences between blacks, whites, or any other race when it comes to this simple fact.

* * * * * * * * *

4 Recap:

• Fact: There are a record number of Americans dependent upon government anti-poverty programs thanks to the Obama Democrats • Fact: Expanded access to welfare and food stamps greatly increases the number of children born to unwed mothers • Fact: Single-parent families correlate to higher crime rates • Conclusion: with the unprecedented increase in welfare, food stamps and unemployment, we will also see an unparalleled increase in violent crime within the next dozen or so years.

Obama and his Democrats sycophants in Congress will have created hundreds of thousands of single-parent families. These kids, born out-of-wedlock, will find themselves trapped in lives of criminality at far higher rates than kids from two-parent families.

Fast forward a dozen years, give or take a couple, and we will see a true Obama Crime Wave. I predict that we will see an unprecedented increase in crime. In fact, you could call it historic.

And the question is not whether it will happen. The question is whether the Obama Left is doing it on purpose.

The Justice Department filed another lawsuit against immigration practices by Arizona authorities, saying Monday that a network of community colleges acted illegally in requiring noncitizens to provide their green cards before they could be hired for jobs...

In Monday's lawsuit, Justice officials said the colleges discriminated against nearly 250 noncitizen job applicants by mandating that they fill out more documents than required by law to prove their eligibility to work. That violated the federal Immigration and Nationality Act, the department said... The government is asking a judge within the Justice Department unit to order the Maricopa colleges to pay a civil penalty of $1,100 for each of the 247 non-U.S.-citizen job applicants it says were required to produce the additional documents. It says the colleges ended the practice in January.

A quarter of a million dollar fine will definitely have employers thinking twice about checking job candidates' bonafides. And that is the intent.

The president has stiffed Gov. Jan Brewer's call for meaningful assistance in efforts to secure the border. And the White House has accused Arizona's junior senator, Republican Jon Kyl, of lying about an Oval Office discussion with the president over comprehensive immigration reform... [and] Brewer was appalled to learn the Justice Department's intentions not from the Justice Department but from an interview done by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with an Ecuadorian TV outlet.

This administration -- and its 'Justice' Department -- is completely out of control. It is acting without restraint and in clear violation of federal law. Its one goal is not protecting American citizens--it is to create as many Democrat voters for the midterm elections as possible.

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

...Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup's likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP's favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November....

One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup's generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

Oh noes, someone call Al "I Have a Scheme" Sharpton! We could have a Speaker Boehner!

CFIF notes that two of the nation's largest unions -- Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) -- will spend about $100 million supporting Democrats in the 2010 midterms. In addition, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union (AFSCME) will donate an additional $50 million to the Democrat cause.

Not only do they think you're stupid, they think their members are even dumber. After all, that money could be spent on member benefits. Like a $1,000 check for 150,000 members. Or putting some money into the dramatically underfunded pensions.

...let’s put that combined $150 million in perspective.

With that money, these three powerhouse unions could make 150 of their members instant millionaires. Or, if they preferred to “spread the wealth around” in accord with the President they did so much to elect in 2008, they could give $10,000 to 15,000 suffering members, or give 150,000 members $1,000 apiece.

How might those 150,000 members vote if asked whether they’d prefer to see $1,000 directed toward their savings accounts versus spendthrift political candidates?

Moreover, the $150 million described above comes from just three unions. According to the Alliance for Worker Freedom (AWF), nine of the top ten political action committees contributing to Democratic candidates are operated by labor unions. Additionally, four of the top five organizations donating to 527 groups are labor unions, according to AWF.

Consider as well that Democrats and union bosses have been consistently underfunding members' pensions for decades. That's not me saying that, Northwestern's Kellogg School of Business, which is not exactly a mouthpiece for right-wing propaganda.

For decades, union bosses have directed millions and millions of dollars to their own generous pay packages and their Democrat cronies, while leaving rank-and-file members' retirements at risk.

Nor do union bosses seem to care any more about American taxpayers’ plight than they do about members’ hardships when it comes to their partisan political goals. To illustrate, they’re now pushing federal legislation to dump grossly underfunded union pension plans into the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PGBC).

In other words, labor leaders want a bailout for union pensions...

Dump union benefit obligations onto taxpayers. That way, union leaders could continue to fight declining membership with promises of unsustainable pay and benefits, while shifting pension responsibility to others. Otherwise, according to a Wall Street Journal reference to a legal group formed on labor organizations’ behalf, unions would face “increased pressure at the bargaining table to decrease contributions and cut benefits.”

Yes, the union bosses and their Democrat sycophants are conspiring to rob taxpayers yet again. Ignore their puerile propaganda and vote every Democrat out of office in 2010. Every one. We can't afford any more of their destructive policies. And our children and grandchildren can't afford them either.

Lately I've been hearing reading and listening to media of all kinds belittle, bemoan and minimize the role of values and faith in our society. That a culture based on hard work and 'elbow grease', if you will, can sustain its historic place in the world without the very ingenuity, drive and vigor that established it as the preeminent paradigm of Freedom and productivity is on its face nonsensical and childish in its logic. But the major media continue to drone on and on about the non-extant recovery and the obsolescence of drive as our great country staggers toward a double dip in the Great Recession or worse, a lost decade of stagflation and negative GDP growth. What we need is a return to core values! Take the economy, for instance.

That we can print money to solve our economy's problems is a very short term solution to an ingrained problem which requires a back-to-basics solution. Expanding the M1 money supply when there is a credit crunch is akin to inhaling a candy bar when you are famished. In a short time you will be worse off for it, and hungrier to boot. That's why short term stimulus never works in the long term. Once the sugar high is gone, the industry has to rely on 'organic' demand, which now has been front loaded by the financial jiggering. Then even more time is needed for the industry to return to equilibrium. So saving GM and Chrysler have forestalled their collapse for a short time but the inevitable bankruptcy of both companies is now guaranteed; if the unerring laws of economics prevail over the current artifice of bailout and stimulus sophistry. Like it or not, all those retired union guys will someday lose their free Viagra on our dime!

Moral crusaders like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity really do have their collective hands on the pulse of the nation and their ears to the ground; listening and alerting us to the coming revolution. This time, however, the tide will shift back to the fundamentals that made this country great and which ensured prosperity for generations. That the major media like CBS reported a paltry 68,000 participants at the 8/28 Re-dedication to 'God and Country' meeting at the Lincoln Memorial speaks volumes. It speaks to their collusion with the political elite to suppress a growing tide of discontent across this country that will facilitate a change in leadership on both Houses of Congress in November. Yes, I said both Houses of Congress. The famed independents who went for Obama two years ago are both ashamed and embarrassed by his lies and Congress' Communist and anti-business tendencies. They wish to punish what they see as a mixture of arrogance and incompetence on display in Washington. And it's got to stop!

We've got to stop making excuses for most of our elected representatives! They are part of the problem. Where Democrats are openly Communistic and amoral, the decision is easy: vote them out come November. Where a Republican has become a 'Democrat Lite,' a consideration of the Tea Party candidate is warranted. Our Democracy requires us to clean house in Washington from time to time, and that time is now!

Our Country needs a return to values, faith and -- dare I say -- God in these times of tribulation. We brought this on ourselves, people. Men and women of good character stood by as humanists who deny God and apologists who deny societal values (based on longstanding biblical tenets) were allowed to ruin our country, subvert our laws and poison our children's minds. Men and women of bad character are in the halls of power. Men like Harry Reid, who openly scoff at our morals and belittle our values. Women like Nancy Pelosi, who laugh at the thought of actually being held to campaign promises and speak of an urgent need to pass a bill so that the American people can find out what it contains. These haughty and arrogant legislators have a big surprise coming in November. Lets not forget Barney Frank and Christopher Dodd, who really should be in prison for pressuring banks to issue mortgages to poor families, who wound up losing their homes and causing world markets to founder. We will pay for this pair's arrogance for generations to come if we stay on this heading.

The road will be difficult, as liberals and humanists, bent on a mild form of Communism, continue to sway the lazy and weak-minded of us. Can anyone blame an illegal alien for taking a job we are too cheap to pay an American to do or for an unskilled laborer to collect 99 weeks of unemployment after working for 26? In a country without a moral compass all things are forgivable. Well, I can blame them, but I am old school. Consider that one lazy man may not destroy an economy; but millions of slothful men can. A nation pays for its poverty of ambition: just research the other nine historical empires that no longer exist!

There is a way back from the abyss: a way of faith and action. Faith to believe that one's actions can sway Divine Providence. Action makes that faith real. Think of it this way, a driver may operate an automobile, but it is the engine that creates the movement that is a demonstration of action. The old 'Faith without Works is dead' (James 2:20) lesson. For who would light a candle and put it under a bushel? (Matt. 5:15 paraphrased). You get the point.

Though these excerpts are really about living according to belief they are applicable wisdom for the working world. A country that has unlimited potential accomplishes little unless activity is undertaken. A person who is gifted but lazy wastes precious ability. Not everybody is equally able, but nearly everybody can labor productively. That is our charge: To labor to correct a generation of sloth and rebellion against reason, against responsibility and even against God. I know this will grate on our humanist bretheren, but there are no successful historic empires based upon Satanism or Agnosticism. Even Nihilism and Communism result in eventual economic collapse and mass starvation, at least if capitalism doesn't swoop in and save the day -- much to the chagrin of the anarchists. Order springs from chaos: That's just how (successful) people are wired. But I digress.

Our country has awakened. Insults to our beliefs and injuries to our way of life have galvanized a nation of believers to re-commit to God, Family and Country. In 60 odd days we will send a message about what most of us hold true: the America that works hard and prays harder requires no less from its leaders. All others will be forced back into their 'pockets of liberalism' in failing cities where they can only whine about how unfair life is to those who don't work. Wasn't that the 1980's? And who was President then? That's right, Ronald Reagan!

This is my country! The country that saved the entire World from Hitler and triumphed over Communism! The land that once sent men to the Moon and, every day, feeds an entire globe of hungry mouths! We can do better! We do have values! We will re-direct our government to serve us and not the other way around! And we will shrink the federal government from its status as unelected overlords of every facet of our lives down to humble servants of we, the people! Those who work every day and pray every night will have their due! A country united under God, with the right to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness! God Bless America!

Whether one likes Obama or not, he was clearly born in the US and therefore eligible for office... However, the birther contretemps suits Obama, because it allows the media to dismiss all of his critics by painting them with the Birther brush (which is why so many of us are frustrated and disgusted by the small coterie of people who continue to indulge it). Obama could put an end to it at any time by simply releasing his original birth certificate from Hawaii, which only he can authorize. Why doesn’t he do it? Because the Birther movement suits his purposes.

So when he made this complaint last night, it’s not just amateurish, it’s completely disingenuous... "I can’t spend all of my time with my birth certificate plastered on my forehead,” quipped Obama, who took a deep breath to gather his thoughts when asked if the poll reflected his inability to communicate with voters."

Er, he hasn’t spent any time with a birth certificate plastered to his forehead, and purposefully so. We understand why, and it makes some strategic sense in the most cynical manner possible. It allows Obama to nurture that microscopic collection of fools to distract attention from his own failures. But if one plays that game, then one gives up the right to whine about it later... [and as] Twitter follower RobRob points out, this was also a non-sequitur response to a question about Obama’s faith.

The Democratic National Committee this morning released this clip of the president rallying the troops, if rather coolly, for 2010. Obama’s express goal: “reconnecting” with the voters who voted for the first time in 2008, but who may not plan to vote in the lower-profile Congressional elections this year.

Obama speaks with unusual demographic frankness about his coalition in his appeal to “young people, African-Americans, Latinos, and women who powered our victory in 2008 [to] stand together once again.”

QOTD: "While no one can say when the big spike in gold will occur, one can say accurately that, given the systematic frailty, it could literally happen on any given day. That’s what happens when scams are unveiled. Remember Bernie Madoff? How many people do you think tried to give him money the day after he was arrested, versus desperately scrambled to get their money out of his sticky web? The answers are “No one” and “Everyone” – that’s what happens when people lose faith in a currency." -- David Galland of Casey Research

The national debt is the single biggest threat to national security, according to Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Tax payers will be paying around $600 billion in interest on the national debt by 2012, the chairman told students and local leaders in Detroit.

“That’s one year’s worth of defense budget,” he said, adding that the Pentagon needs to cut back on spending... “We’re going to have to do that if it’s going to survive at all,” Mullen said, “and do it in a way that is predictable.”

[Krugman's] attitude, which seems to be shared by the Democratic leadership in D.C., is that America can spend an unlimited amount of money with no serious consequences, that we should do so in order to pump up the economy, and then at some undefined later point, somebody else will have to restrain spending. Incidentally, this was not Paul Krugman's attitude early on in the Bush Administration. The Paul Krugman from back then sounded a great deal more concerned about fiscal conservatism than the Paul Krugman of today does.

Setting aside the fact that the evidence government spending can drive economic growth in this country is sparse indeed -- and that the debt crisis in Europe that's already hitting Greece and could easily hit us in a few years -- at what point do we say we simply admit that we don't have the money to pursue this liberal economic pipedream any more? Put another way, America has spent far too much, for far too long, and because of that, even if Krugman's desire to borrow and spend our way to prosperity worked (which it doesn't), we're so deep in the red that the cure would be worse than the disease.

Last night, as part of a procedural vote on the emergency war supplemental bill, House Democrats attached a document that "deemed as passed" a non-existent $1.12 trillion budget. The execution of the "deeming" document allows Democrats to start spending money for Fiscal Year 2011 without the pesky constraints of a budget... The procedural vote passed 215-210 with no Republicans voting in favor and 38 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote against deeming the faux budget resolution passed.

Never before -- since the creation of the Congressional budget process -- has the House failed to pass a budget, failed to propose a budget then deemed the non-existent budget as passed as a means to avoid a direct, recorded vote on a budget, but still allow Congress to spend taxpayer money.

German Bundesbank executive Thilo Sarrazin has sparked a new uproar by saying that "all Jews share a common gene" and also attacked the Basques in Spain the same way in a newspaper interview.

This comes only a few days after Sarrazin came under fire in Germany for using shock talk about the country's Muslim immigrants, Turks, Middle Easterners and Africans when he presented a new book... whose title translates as “Germany Eliminates Itself,” sparked a heated debate. A spokesman of the Bundesbank so far only said that the book is Sarrazin's personal opinion, not exactly distancing itself from Sarrazin's xenophobic bouts... A spokesman for chancellor Angela Merkel began his Sunday with expressions of outrage.

Sarrazin is still on the job after an interview with conservative German Sunday paper "Welt am Sonntag" where he extended his attacks to Jews... Deutsche Welle reports:

"All Jews share a particular gene," Sarrazin said in an interview. "That makes them different from other peoples."

...The Jewish community in Germany reacted with indignation to Sarrazin's attempts at racial profiling... Whoever tries to define Jews by their genetic makeup, even when it is superficially positive in tone, is in the grip of a race mania that Jews do not share," said Stephan Kramer, secretary of the Central Council of Jews in Germany.

Say, if Germany could only create a master race, a genetically pure group of citizens, then perhaps a bold leader could spearhead the launch of a thousand-year renaissance of enlightenment...

Just when you thought "the media" couldn't make bigger fools of themselves, along comes their buffoonish treatment of the attendance at yesterday's Glenn Beck rally at the Lincoln Memorial. Most danced around the issue, falling back on the stock "thousands" or "tens of thousands" weasels. But there was one twit among them who spilled the beans. CBS went on the record: Glenn Beck Rally Attracts Estimated 87,000.

Fortunately, we have better ways to judge the size of the crowd than to rely on Dan Rather's news organization. MLK's famed 1963 "I Have a Dream" rally was held on the same ground, and the accepted figure is 250,000.

Judge for yourself. Do you think Beck drew less than half?

As an aside, the open field filled with people on the left was overgrown with trees and unavailable to spectators in 1963.

Oh, BTW, Sharpton's rally, which the clowns positioned as the anti-Beck rally, "attracted" 3,000. So much easier to count.

RUSH TRANSCRIPT: The following is the text of the Reverend Al Sharpton's spoken speech, transcribed from my recording, in between rounds of beer pong in a DC bar.

###

I am happy to speak to you today in what will be recorded as the most bitter, self-serving speech in the history of our nation.

Two score and two months ago, a black American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, was elected President. That momentous day does not diminish the fact that most Americans are still quite racist. To acknowledge otherwise could negatively impact my cash flow, which is dependent upon hatred and divisiveness.

You see, one hundred and forty years after the Emancipation, we have made no progress whatsoever. All of the blood shed during the Civil War, all of the Civil Rights marches, all of the blacks elected to high office and who have achieved great material success in the United States, truly you must ignore all of these momentous milestones, because I am still heavily invested in grievance-mongering.

If I were to demand Charter Schools in every inner city school district, so that every child could have a chance to succeed, where would that leave me? Without the support of the teachers' unions, that's where!

If I were to demand an end to unlimited welfare, which breeds a culture of dependency and despondency, where would that leave me? Without swarms of single-parent families that populate my armies of illiteracy, crime and violence, that's where!

It would be fatal to my pocketbook if I were to acknowledge the great progress that has been made. So what I must do, what I will continue to do, is to sow division, to diminish this country's advances, to play the race card with every hand. Joining me in this effort: the once-proud NAACP, La Raza, LULAC, and other separatist front groups, many of them working covertly for foreign governments.

We have come to our nation's capitol to balkanize this country, to divide it into arbitrary segments of the abused and the abuser, whether real or not. Rich vs. poor, black vs. white, fat vs. thin, illegal immigrants vs. citizens, trial lawyers vs. doctors, Christians and Diamond Merchants vs. Muslims, and so on. Because once we find a scapegoat, we can demonize, polarize and destroy it.

It would be fatal for the nation's media to overlook the urgency of this moment. I have survived the Tawana Brawley debacle, various problems with the IRS, and that inconsequential "Kill the Jew" incident at Crown Heights, all with my dignity intact and my media credentials in good order. For Glenn Beck, you're willing to throw all of these qualifications away?

I can not turn back. There are those who ask me, "When will you be satisfied?" I can never be satisfied as long as the media needs a grievance-mongerer to trot out, no matter how shameful his past. I can never be satisfied until this country has broken apart into warring camps. In other words, I can never be satisifed until I find a way to make serious, serious money from race-baiting. And by serious, I mean ten million or more.

I have a scheme that involves wealth redistribution, with much of the wealth being redistributed to me.

I have a scheme today.

I have a scheme that one day this nation will be completely Balkanized, with dozens of ethnicities, races, colors, religions and creeds all warring for their slice of the public trough.

Let race-baiting sing from the above-the-fold page A-1 of the New York Times!

Let race-baiting sing from the hallowed mouth of Katie Couric!

Let race-baiting sing from the President himself and his minions!

And when this happens, when we allow race-baiting to sing its siren song, when we let it sing from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that great day of which Alinsky spoke. When this capitalist and imperialist society finally collapses, replaced with an authoritarian regime of the kind for which Thomas Friedman has pined. On that day, we will be able to survey the Tower of Babel society that we have created and revel in the words Statists have longed for, "The Constitution is Dead At Last. Dead at Last! The United States is Dead At Last!"