The numbers are OK now but if the Org manages to get BLM to increase the population cap by 30,000 with zero vehicle pass increase, the specatator percentage goes way up.

There’s already no way they’re going to evacuate all the vehicles out there now in any kind of timely manner in case of some sort of emergency.
As for traffic volume, it’d be no worse than every afternoon on 1-5 or 405 in the Seattle area.
People could detour a bit and come in from the north from Cedarville.
You couldn’t force that, but the punishment of all the traffic from the south would be a strong incentive. I’d drive a long way out of my way to avoid it.

It’ll go the way it goes... I’m not in charge so it doesn’t really matter how I think it should be.
I’m already no longer the person in our household that thinks we should even bother with it, I probably shouldn’t even be commenting on how it ought to be facilitated.

GreyCoyote: "At this rate it wont be long before he is Admiral Fukkit."

I agree with the Captain, that an emergency evacuation of BRC would be a CF. I think BMORG should pay to have NV34 paved to 3 lanes from the 447Y to whatever our entrance is. In an emergency, 2-3 lanes could flow to staging areas on 447N and 447S of the Y.

I’m fine with a smaller event too, if it could be a better mix of participants.

Along those lines, anyone could contribute to the EIS process. So Pershing County did with this little doodoo as reported by a paywalled local news outlet.

It is a fairly agressive move which likely pleases the local voters and perhaps is a negotiating tactic to get the BORG to send more tribute dollars their way...

County requests 50,000-person limit at Burning Man

Debra Reid, News4Nevada
Wednesday, August 8, 2018 12:00 AM

In a letter last week to the Bureau of Land Management Winnemucca District, Pershing County District Attorney Bryce Shields recommended the BLM limit the total attendance at Burning Man to 50,000 people including ticket-holders, staff, volunteers, contractors and government officials.

The comment letter was submitted by Shields on behalf of the Pershing County Commission and the Pershing County District Attorney’s Office. The deadline for public comment on the BLM’s Burning Man Special Recreation Permit/Environmental Impact Statement was Friday.

The BLM is analyzing impacts of the event that is now allowed up to 70,000 ticket-holders plus paid and volunteer non-ticket holders who work the event. Burning Man organizers have applied for a Special Recreation Permit for the next 10 years and have requested the BLM allow them to sell more tickets meaning the total event attendance could eventually reach 100,000 people.

In his comment letter, Shields pointed out that, at its current size, the festival is already a serious drain on local resources including law enforcement, the jail, courts, roads and administrative services in Pershing County and beyond. He questioned if even the BLM could provide enough rangers to control the impacts of 100,000 participants and employees on public land resources.

“In terms of increasing the event’s size, it is doubtful that the Burning Man event can grow to 100,000 participants without increasing the number of federal and state law enforcement officers,” Shields states in the letter. “To ensure the safety of participants and law enforcement personnel, the Draft EIS should analyze the appropriate levels of staffing for federal and state law enforcement and the associated financial

burden to these agencies. As a practical matter, the analysis should include whether the Department of Interior is capable of staffing enough BLM Rangers at the event should it increase to 100,000 participants.”

Shields suggested the BLM also evaluate whether enough officers can be recruited from within the state by the Pershing County Sheriff Office to maintain public safety at the event if Burning Man continues to grow. Sheriff Jerry Allen has said that he and his staff have difficulty locating enough available law enforcement officers willing and able to help local deputies with the event.

Increased attendance means more crime and more demands on all of the county’s limited resources, Shields said. Each crime report must be investigated, evidence must be collected, suspects must be housed at the county jail and be given due process in court. An eight-day event soon turns into year-round work for law enforcement, county courts and administration.

“The volume of crimes (hundreds of misdemeanors and dozens of felonies) coupled with the impermanent infrastructure, short duration of the event, and transitory nature of most of the state law enforcement officers, renders report writing, record keeping and evidence intake a monumental task. This process strains law enforcement and prosecution resources for months after the event,” Shields states in the letter.

Shields said criminal activities at the festival may have not been reported to law enforcement officers at the request of Burning Man’s own security staff known as the Black Rock Rangers.

“Anecdotal information from state and federal law enforcement officers suggests that the BRR encourages event participants to avoid reporting incidents to law enforcement in favor of resolving matters “in house” with the BRR’s assistance,” Shields states in the letter. “Such stories from law enforcement seem to be credible because the 2018 Black Rock Ranger (BRR) Manual contains instructions to BRRs to ‘filter’ what is reported to law enforcement.”

According to Shields, the Black Rock Ranger Manual also contains a “legally inadequate definition” of “consent” for encounters such as sexual encounters.

“This woeful advice to the BRR suggests the ugly possibility that crimes at the event, including sexual assault, have been under reported to law enforcement officers in previous years,” he states in the comment letter. “In light of the possibility that crimes have gone unreported to law enforcement, the Draft EIS should evaluate what measures can be taken to ensure that crimes are accurately reported to law enforcement.”

Shields recommended the BLM investigate the screening process conducted by festival staff at the gates to the event. Gatekeepers search vehicles for people without tickets as well as illegal drugs and weapons but such contraband has been found by law enforcement inside the event.

“Is the current screening process adequate to prevent prohibited items (drugs, firearms, glitter, confetti, etc…) from entering the event?” Shields asks the BLM. “To say nothing of the copious amounts of controlled substances at the event, within the last two or three years, law enforcement officers have located firearms at the event. In one egregious case, officers discovered one AR-15 and one 9 mm handgun, along with thousands of rounds of ammunition for those weapons. In an effort to better protect participants, a more thorough screening process of vehicles and individuals should occur prior to entry.”

Shields questioned if there are adequate restrictions on minors inside the event where “adult” events occur. Rather than imposing a minimum age limit on the event, as county officials have suggested, the BLM has allowed parents to decide if their children should attend the event.

“Please include within the Draft EIS a study concerning Black Rock City’s zoning efforts in that regard,” he said in the letter. “How is the zoning enforced? How does Burning Man or the BLM ensure that minors at the event are there with the permission of their parents or guardians?”

As well as the event’s negative effects on county roads, a lesser known impact is on nearby public land users. In the letter, Shields said some of those people have had trouble accessing their private land, grazing allotments and other areas due to Burning Man roadblocks.

“Many ranchers and property owners near the Burning Man Event have expressed concerns that proposed road closures will deprive them of access to areas essential to their day-to-day business operations,” he states in the letter. “These individuals also report that, in previous years, when they have driven in close proximity to the borders of the event, they have been “hassled” by Black Rock Rangers and followed.”

Shields suggested that Burning Man or the BLM issue “visible vehicle placards” for those landowners, ranchers and other public land users who need access to areas near the event.

A lower attendance level would limit the overall impacts of Burning Man according to Shields.

“With these considerations in mind, we request that the BLM analyze the alternative of capping the event at 50,000 persons,” he wrote. “This number, of course, encompasses all attendees, including paid participants, volunteers, service providers, vendors, contractors and government personnel.”

Like any negotiation, this one starts low and ends up a bit higher. I think what they want is to keep it the size it is now. I personally think that's a fine idea. Sure, I may not get a ticket. I'm not in favor of a bigger event.

Those aren't buttermilk biscuits I'm lying on Savannah

Pictures or it didn't happen Greycoyote

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.Arthur Schopenhauer

I suspect someone else could come up with a better plan, but maybe the HOV lanes follow a different path (like the police or service vehicle entrance), and the same process controls that as controls access to that exit already?

This idea would only require a few extra volunteers at the start of the existing BxB/servicevehicle/etc exit.

I don't know if an HOV lane really would help much. With a pulsed system you might allow the HOV lane folks out first during the pulse, but you're still going to allow the remaining mass of cars in that pulse to also leave. So you're dealing with essentially the same pulse worth of cars each time, just in a different order.

You also don't even need an HOV lane or any incentive like that anyway. Capping the number of vehicle passes alone already effects that consolidation. They could just increase the ticket cap without raising the VP count, and just let the cards fall as they may. If people want to get in they'll need to figure out how to transport themselves and their goods onto the playa.

"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens

I'd be more okay if they just got rid of the officially sanctioned mass transit like BxB, chartered flights (private or public), and Green Turtle. Then it would simply people to have to coordinate their own ride-shares, connections, or drive in.

The mere existence of these official mass transit systems is an abomination. It officially encourages a culture of just showing up to the event with pretty much just yourself. A mechanism to travel to the playa through a process requiring as little effort or involvement as booking a flight from a major airline.

Yes, it is often not easy attending on BxB, and there is a bit of prep. It does suck having those baggage restrictions and such to not be able to bring in more stuff. Yes, many, if not most of the people who use these methods are not bad people, or bad burners, or even that distinct from people who are sitting in the passenger seat of a ride-share.

Again, the problem is really more the culture that these mass transit systems encourage.

The event should really have no involvement or interest at all in facilitating people's entrance to the event anymore than supplying food, water, or bikes to attendees. Besides online guides, the only thing the event should be checking is whether you have proper tickets and show up in a vehicle that has its VP. After that, and before that, you're basically on your own to make possible this trip to the blank slate of BM.

"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens

I have a minivan. 2 people and all of our stuff is the MOST I can picture getting in there. Looking at the Census numbers, 2 passengers is the magic number for arrivals. It's been approx. the same for years. The event can't keep that small limit on VP and NOT have mass transit. There are barely enough passes now.

I would also like a smaller event and no mass transit. I'm going to more regionals now. I'll never stop coming to the burn though.

Those aren't buttermilk biscuits I'm lying on Savannah

Pictures or it didn't happen Greycoyote

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.Arthur Schopenhauer

You're so right. Those waps come from camps and departments where people have signed up for shifts and have no way to get there. Ive never used the ride share board. Is it full of offers or people looking for a ride?

Those aren't buttermilk biscuits I'm lying on Savannah

Pictures or it didn't happen Greycoyote

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.Arthur Schopenhauer

I did share my thoughts with the BORG, but I truly feel that enabling people to come in via mass transit options is a net negative for the event. I've spent too much time volunteering at the airport and seeing that weird operation grow exponentially over the past few years to not be honest about it.

There are ~4000 low income tickets. Each comes with an optional vehicle pass. It is one of the things the BORG does well in designing the ticket structure.

It encourages more expensive ticket-holding drivers to include them in carpooling. Some will have jobs that allow them to take time to participate in WAP.

Wait-what? !!!

Do you have cites for this? Is it a documented BORG design/statement?

How does that make any sense?

You can’t afford the $500 to go, so you apply for the $190 ticket, then you have the ability to spend the extra $80 to get a VP just in case you have to barter a ride?

Do they actually spend the $80 or is it some kind of voucher that lets them get that ticket and pay at the gate just in case they need it for the “bribe” barter.

So 4 out of 27 VPs (~15%) get held back and contribute to folks scaling back their projects for lack of transport in the name of some best-effort rideshare encouragement, which the rideshare board stats clearly shows; ain’t workin’.

Fucking far out!

And I won’t touch the WAP cuz they have flexible jobs statement. Can of worms that one.

The Gate doesn't contribute to the Census data. There is 'The Census' online after the event. And since not everyone is the type to do that, there is the random sampling of incoming participants during the event. This is used to 'weight' the data. All very controlled and orchestrated. You can read all about it in the Journal.

Those aren't buttermilk biscuits I'm lying on Savannah

Pictures or it didn't happen Greycoyote

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.Arthur Schopenhauer

The Gate doesn't contribute to the Census data. There is 'The Census' online after the event. And since not everyone is the type to do that, there is the random sampling of incoming participants during the event. This is used to 'weight' the data. All very controlled and orchestrated. You can read all about it in the Journal.

Thanks! What I suspected. I believe the census vehicle occupancy data is roughly accurate, but you can't argue there is 100% sampled data only the BORG has access to.

There are ~4000 low income tickets. Each comes with an optional vehicle pass. It is one of the things the BORG does well in designing the ticket structure.

It encourages more expensive ticket-holding drivers to include them in carpooling. Some will have jobs that allow them to take time to participate in WAP.

Wait-what? !!!

Do you have cites for this? Is it a documented BORG design/statement?

How does that make any sense?

You can’t afford the $500 to go, so you apply for the $190 ticket, then you have the ability to spend the extra $80 to get a VP just in case you have to barter a ride?

Do they actually spend the $80 or is it some kind of voucher that lets them get that ticket and pay at the gate just in case they need it for the “bribe” barter.

So 4 out of 27 VPs (~15%) get held back and contribute to folks scaling back their projects for lack of transport in the name of some best-effort rideshare encouragement, which the rideshare board stats clearly shows; ain’t workin’.

Fucking far out!

And I won’t touch the WAP cuz they have flexible jobs statement. Can of worms that one.

Yes that is my understanding. Low income tickets are strictly issued at the box office in person with ID. At that instant, the low income ticket awardees have the option to purchase and use for their ride the VP. BMORG would have proprietary data on how many of the 4000 exercise the option. The BMORG would also have proprietary data on how many of the 27K VP are actually used each year, including WAP LI VP by day.

The guidelines about not doing willcall on foot are "should"s, not "must"[not]s. I'm still super wary of taking willcall folks on my rideshare, but I've heard a lot of people are going the "get out and walk" route.

If you want to make a reply about my personality instead of about what this thread is about, don't clutter this thread, post over here instead.