The next two days are potentially the biggest so far this year for bond markets. The key issue will be the European Central Bank’s policy announcement. At this point, the word on the street is that there’s an extremely high likelihood of rate cuts, a low likelihood of outright asset purchases and a decent chance of a more middle-of-the-road liquidity measure (like the previously used LTROs or “long term refinancing operations”). As to what combination of potential tools will result in which direction of bond market movement, it’s anyone’s guess.