Losing the battle AND the war. Fox News poll finds Trump at -10 on the issue of 'border security.' This follows Quinnipiac poll than showed Ds ahead of Trump on border security by 7 pts. https://t.co/R0ObcKhM1z

True, Trump could do something unprecedented like declaring a national emergency, but that would require political courage. And Donald J. Trump is a coward. He has always been a coward, and will go to his (probably secret & unmarked) grave a coward. The lavish tongue-baths from the racists and traitors surrounding him can prop up his ego long enough for him to make a big noise in front of the cameras, but Speaker Pelosi has let it be known that she’s got his financial balls in a vise, to use the kind of metaphor he prefers.

From Bloomberg, news for Masters of the Financial Universe, “Trump Just Lost His Leverage for Building a Wall”:

President Donald Trump doesn’t seem to realize it, but his claim to any leverage on the shutdown is officially dead after two Senate votes on reopening the government failed Thursday afternoon. The question now: Will Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans let him twist in the wind, bleeding away support little by little while the nation continues to suffer the consequences of the closure? Or will they finally move to end this fiasco?

First, here’s what the Senate did. Neither Trump’s plan nor the Democratic alternative reached the 60 votes needed to defeat filibusters. But two Republicans — Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Utah’s Mike Lee — opposed Trump’s bill; only one Democrat, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, voted for it. With one absent Democrat and two missing Republicans, that meant a narrow 50-to-47 margin. The point of Trump’s proposal was supposedly to demonstrate that he could pick off enough Democrats by floating a measure labeled as a compromise. However, since the plan added restrictions on asylum and on Temporary Protected Status, and offered very limited protections, there was very little to tempt Democrats who may have wanted a deal. Instead, the vote demonstrated only that there is no easy bargain to be made on Trump’s terms. Giving Democrats very little — enough to bring over just one vote — cost Trump two Republican votes.

Meanwhile, the Democrats’ clean funding bill to reopen the government while negotiations continue on border safety, a bill that had passed the House easily, did well in the Senate as six Republicans joined every Democrat to get a 52-to-44 margin. That’s far short of 60. But it’s a solid majority, and a bigger one than Trump’s bill got, despite the Republican’s 53-47 majority in the chamber…
… Trump’s belief that an extended shutdown would somehow force Democrats to give in to him was always a poor gamble. At this point, there’s really no reason for Democrats to back down and multiple reasons for Republicans to find a way out (public opinion blaming Trump and his party for the shutdown, the president’s approval ratings dropping, and far more Democratic unity in Congress)…

It’s still not clear what McConnell and Senate Republicans want. Maybe this was all a set-up to demonstrate to Trump how bad his position is. It’s also possible, however, that the purpose of Thursday’s floor action was merely to give everyone a chance to cast votes they wanted to cast while leaving everything else untouched. Or it could be some combination of both. We don’t know whether Republican senators behind the scenes are urging McConnell to hang tough — or looking for an exit…

Democrats have said from the beginning that they’re still willing to bargain over border security once the government is fully operating. They’re apparently putting together a proposal to spend roughly as much money as Trump asked for to fund the wall — about $5.5 billion this year — but to pay for what they want, such as “smart” technology and funding for the overall immigration system rather than physical barriers. The votes Thursday reduce the pressure on Democrats to come up with a viable alternative, and increase pressure on Senate Republicans to find a way out. Trump just doesn’t have the votes to get what he wants, even though he (now barely) has the votes to keep the longest partial shutdown in U.S. history going.

Message to Donny, once he has someone read it to him: Mitch and his Republican cronies are using you for a catspaw. They’re letting you take the heat for an unwinnable battle.

Why is Trump so careful of Pelosi? In October, she told @sfchronicle that demanding Trump returns would be "one of first things we do" https://t.co/P6qD1ZbLtx She hasnt yet though. Trump can see the brass knuckles on the table in front of her – and must worry when they'll be used

True, Trump could do something unprecedented like declaring a national emergency, but that would require political courage. And Donald J. Trump is a coward. He has always been a coward, and will go to his (probably secret & unmarked) grave a coward.

The end game on Trump and his wall have been clear since he took office: There are already 650 miles of fences on the border; Trump gets 50 feet or 50 miles more built, doesn’t matter which; Trump has photo op in front of new fencing; Trump declares victory and credit for all of it.

Frustrated GOP senators read Vice President Pence the riot act at a closed-door meeting Thursday, telling him the partial government shutdown needs to end soon, according to lawmakers in the room.

Republican senators, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), warned the vice president that prolonging the shutdown is not a smart political strategy, in hopes of sending a clear message to President Trump that he needs to resolve the crisis as soon as possible.

Lawmakers vented their irritation to Pence shortly before six GOP senators defected to vote for a Democratic-backed bill that would open the government without funding Trump’s proposed border wall.

One GOP senator said lawmakers told Pence “the shutdown needs to come to an end, this is not a strategy that works [and] we never should have had a shutdown in the first place.”

@🇺🇸🌎 Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) 🗳🌷: The proposal I saw floated was that there would be an automatic Continuing Resolution which would kick in in the event of a failure to pass a spending authorization bill. That would go a long way towards ending this sort of mess. You’d need a sane President and Congress to pass the law to set it up, so that’s a bit of a problem right now.

@chrsfrncs
Replying to @BenjySarlin
I will confess that I was down on Pelosi last fall for this reason and because I thought we needed to be raising up a new generation of leaders. She has won me over and then some. But now I don’t understand why Steny Hoyer is still in his job.

I had to look up Steny Hoyer and from the google links – I have no idea whey he still calls himself a democrat, let alone be one of the leaders.

@debbie: How would that work? The executive can’t spend unappropriated funds, so Congress would have to make all appropriations automatically renew. That’s a major hit to the Congressional power of the purse (granted, we’re already pretty close to it) and I certainly don’t see Pelosi signing on to it.

“His business is convincing people with lowbrow taste to give him their money,” she said. “Either Trump never intended to build the wall and was scamming voters all along, or he has no idea how to get it done and zero interest in finding out.”

Though she has lately leveled ferocious criticism of the billionaire, Coulter ratcheted up the rhetoric to a new level on Wednesday after telling various media outlets that Trump’s unwillingness to shut down the government over the wall would not only doom a second term, but would probably make him unable to finish his first term.

“Outside of the Fox News Xmas party, he’s bleeding supporters and the barbarians are at the gates,” Coulter told TheWrap in an email. “The details about Stormy and Cohen … are creepy, even if not criminal. Trump voters are exhausted. If he gives them no reason to fight for him, they won’t.”

He’s afraid of Ann and her followers, but he still thinks he can punch down on the rest of us.

There’s something in “The Making of Donald Trump” for everyone. For Christians, one of Donald Trump’s favorite Bible verses is an “eye for an eye.” For lawyers, Trump’s apparent enjoyment of lawsuits doesn’t seem to keep him from settling more than he’s won, yet he claims that “he never settles” because “you have to hit those who screw you ten times harder.” […]

A search of Trump and “ten times harder” brings up lots of examples (including Melania) citing this mantra.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he tries to hit back “ten times harder” over not getting his Precious from Nancy. I hope Nancy and Chuck and everyone who takes their oath seriously is prepared in case he does.

“His business is convincing people with lowbrow taste to give him their money,” she said. “Either Trump never intended to build the wall and was scamming voters all along, or he has no idea how to get it done and zero interest in finding out.”

They could do all kinds of things. Maybe having to pass legislation in order to end funding, as opposed to having to vote to continue funding. No more omnibus bills, for another thing. Whatever, don’t put 800,000 people out of work. Here’s an idea. If there is to be a shutdown, let it be on Congressional and Executive salaries, perks, and bennies. They won’t get them back until they come to an agreement.

@B.B.A.: Gillibrand is an on-going discussion. I like her, but she hasn’t managed to get me enthusiastic about her candidacy yet. There’s 3 or 4 people that really hate her and discussion derails quickly.

Trump has two options at this point: 1. Announce that in the interest of putting federal workers back to work, he will sign whatever both houses pass (pretty much there right now), or 2. Declare a national emergency, which might put everyone to work while it goes through court, but a) it would piss off a lot of wavering GOPersby prolonging this fiasco, and b) how could Trump argue it’s a national emergency when he’s spent the last month trying to get Congress to voluntarily give him the money? Seems like a LOT of levels of court would see that for what it is – Trump trying to bypass Congressional rejection.

How would that work? The executive can’t spend unappropriated funds, so Congress would have to make all appropriations automatically renew. That’s a major hit to the Congressional power of the purse (granted, we’re already pretty close to it) and I certainly don’t see Pelosi signing on to it.

Apparently that’s the way it worked until a court ruling during the Carter Administration, and lawmakers before that certainly thought the power of the purse existed.

Mark Warner’s “Stop STUPIDITY Act”, BTW, is the proposed legislation to end shutdowns and go back to the previous practice.

@Yarrow: My fervent wish is that Mitch McConnell roasts for all eternity in the fires he set, and he never dine in peace in public for the short remainder of his miserable wretched existence. He is the poster boy of two-bit ratfuck soulless criminal Republicans. Dumpster Fire may well be the catalyst, Mitchy boy is the fucking enabler.

@MisterForkbeard: i’m kind of neutral on all of them. I’ll give it a few months and see how things shake out. Today Terry McAuliffe hinted he might run. Someone asked Sen. Bennett after his rant today if he’s thinking of running and he said he’s thinking about it. There are going to be a whole bunch of people jumping in.

@Yarrow: I was pretty neutral, but I’m leaning Harris at this point. I like her, and if I didn’t have family coming this Sunday I’d be at her kickoff rally. But I’m also open to arguments against her, and I’d be pretty happy with almost any Democrat.

@Yarrow: Right. The important thing now is to remember that the Democrats are generally pretty good! Even if you don’t get your favorite, the next Dem candidate is going to be superb and you’re going to agree with nearly everything they want on policy.

Unless it’s Gabbard, because yeah. I’d still vote for her over Trump, but I’m not going to pretend I’d feel bad about it.

I’ve said this before, but I think Pelosi’s long game is to break McConnell’s control over his caucus so they can send a bill to Trump with a veto-proof majority. It’s the ONLY way to rein Trump in, and both Pelosi and McConnell know it.

McConnell is going to keep resisting until his last breath because he’s incredibly guilty of conspiring with Russia and directing illegal Russian campaign contributions to Republicans, but the rest of them are going to break eventually. There’s not a profile in courage in the entire caucus, and this whole fiasco is just getting worse and worse for them.

Remember, boys and girls, Pelosi has been Speaker for less than a month. There’s a long way to go until November of 2020 and McConnell’s caucus is already getting pissed at him.

@Mnemosyne: If Nancy Pelosi is able to break McConnell’s hold on his caucus, she will be the legislative equivalent of the World Heavyweight Boxing Champion of all times. I look forward to her knock-out punch.

Trump’s comments are nigh incomprehensible, as is typical. But it is possible to tease out one virulently ignorant germ of an idea. Trump appears to believe that workers who need food can simply go to their town grocery store, where the compassionate neighborhood grocer — a pillar of the community they have a personal relationship with — waits to hand out IOU’s to struggling federal workers.

It is not true, however, that hungry workers in need of a gallon of milk can show up at the local Foodtown and just promise to pay the store back later. We do not inhabit the world of Little House on the Prairie.

I’m certainly no expert, but wouldn’t it make sense for Trump to just declare a national emergency? Even if it would inevitably lead to prolonged litigation, it would allow him to:

A.) Proclaim “victory” and re-open the government, because at that point he would have “gotten” what he wants by declaring the “emergency” and “building” the fence.
B.) Save face with the True Presidents (Coulter, Limbaugh, etc.) by allowing him to say, “Hey, at least I tried by declaring a national emergency. If it gets terminated by Congress or tied up in the courts then that’s all the Democrats’ fault.”

Trump is so fixated on the wall-or-bust that he shut down the government for it and has maintained his position even as he hemorrhages support. Given that he’s irrational, what’s his incentive to agree on anything less than that? For Trump, doing something that’s entirely improper and doomed to failure has always been a lot more enticing than having to compromise and admit defeat.

@Bill Arnold: Yeah, they’re just falling apart on their attempts to understand regular people. This kind of crap will end up just pushing more GOP Senators to vote for ending the shutdown. They’re going to start worrying about 2020 bringing in a President Elizabeth Warren with a veto-proof (no way they kill the veto now) majority and Speaker-of-the-House AOC if Trump and his minions keep trying to relate. I mean, I’m starting to get the feeling that Mnuchin’s wife is going to accidentally post as public a pic of her rolling in a pile of brand-new $100 bills while wearing a fur coat.

@JGabriel: Buried at sea, at an unknown location, like Bin Laden. But more appropriate would be for his carcass to be tossed in a McDonald’s dumpster and covered with soiled Big Mac wrappers and rancid, half-eaten Filet o’ Fish sandwiches.

@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner): I don’t think he’ll declare a national emergency. Think through the implications–where has he found the supposed 7 billion to fund the wall? What other programs will he terminate or underfund? Disaster relief funds for victims of hurricaine Harvey and victims of California wildfires was floated in one story I read. That’ll go over like a lead balloon, even in this red state.

I don’t think he’ll declare a national emergency. Think through the implications–where has he found the supposed 7 billion to fund the wall?

Trump will probably declare a national emergency. He has signalled this already.

He is a coward, but the Republican leadership, Fox News and hard line conservatives have stroked his ego on this. He will steal the money for the Wall, and will be fake furious if the Court ultimately blocks him.

Trump is a coward. But he is afraid of being found out, of everyone knowing that he is a coward. So he has to fake bravery. It’s a terrible contradiction. But he has to live it.

@JGabriel: You took the words right outta my mouth! I’ve been working on my script lately for calling the White House and asking for the person in charge of Trump Library planning (best collection of coloring books ever assembled). I’ll ask if there will be vending machines, like what they had for animal food at the zoo when I was a kid, or if visitors will need to bring their own urine to throw on Trump’s grave.

@Bill Arnold: Remind me, was it one of Mnuchin’s companies that repossessed a woman’s house because she owed $2? Someone on Trump’s cabinet, anyway. That person could tell Trump how generous businesses are.

Ded thred I know, but what the hey, I feel like telling this joke from Ceaușescu’s Romania in the 1980s in honor of my late friend Mircea, who escaped from there & later related it to me:

Ceaușescu was diagnosed with an incurable & fatal disease. “But Conducatore, we believe that within 20 years we will have a cure, so we propose to put you into suspended animation until the cure is found & then revive you.”

He agrees & contemplates what he will leave to his 3 children. “Nicu[1] always wanted to run Romania, so OK, I leave him Romania to run. Zoia (daughter, d. 2006, reputed to have lived “a wild life with plenty of lovers”) seems to like to sleep in a different bed each night[2], so OK, I leave her all the hotels in Romania. And Valentin, that good-for-nothing[3], all he wants to do is bury his head in his science – he probably won’t remember what I look like 5 minutes after I’m on ice. So he can remember, I leave him that,” pointing up to the gigantic portrait that hangs in the Conducatore’s chamber.

Years pass, a cure is found, Ceaușescu is revived & cured. Near the end of his recuperation he asks, “So how are my kids doing? How’s Nicu been running Romania”

“Oh, him – he made a botch of it & was deposed years ago. Now he lives in exile.”

“Huh. And how is Zoia with all her hotels?”

“She went bankrupt & lost them all. You want to see what she does now for a living? Look out this window.” He looks & sees a parked Mercedes limousine rocking furiously back & forth.

They drive him to Cișmigiu Gardens, where a huge crowd is standing in a line that spirals ever inward. At the center sits Valentin, with his fthe larger-than-life portrait of his father, & a sign:

10 CENTS TO SPIT ON – 25 CENTS TO PISS ON

FTR some of the nastiest political humor I ever heard came out of Romania, where every third person was supposedly an informant for the dreaded Securitate.

Notes: [1] Youngest, father’s heir apparent, d. 1996. [2] Reputed to have “lived a wild life, having plenty of lovers and often being drunk.”(source); died 2006. [3] Physicist, still living. No indication he was ever “worthless,” but consider it a necessary fiction for purposes of the story

@Uncle Cosmo: There was some hullaballoo a couple of years ago (or so) about Donnie’s efforts to change the zoning at one of his NJ (?) golf courses by saying that he was going to put his mausoleum on it and therefore it should be zoned like a cemetery (to eliminate the property taxes). He was getting a lot of pushback. Dunno where it stands.

He undoubtedly wants his body at some place where his kids can charge $200k annual dues…