What will it take to get Karzai to sign the BSA? – Rogers picked for NSA – McCord to replace Hale as DoD comptroller

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IS THERE ROOM TO GO AROUND CONGRESS ON DEFENSE CUTS? POLITICO’s Philip Ewing looks at whether DoD will be able implement any of its desired changes to domestic bases and personnel costs on its own.

It’s going to be nearly impossible to cut military benefits without igniting a firestorm on Capitol Hill, but Ewing says DoD does have some flexibility when it comes to base closures … sorta. “What the Pentagon can control without as much congressional notice is the disposition of units,” he writes. http://politico.pro/1guUsIV

His report is part of a 12-story POLITICO Pro Special Report series on the Obama administration’s executive action and regulatory agenda. You can read the entire series at: http://politico.pro/1a4O4oV

THE $64 BILLION QUESTION: WHAT DOES KARZAI WANT? Afghan President Hamid Karzai is refusing to sign the bilateral security agreement negotiated with the U.S. And without it, U.S. officials say they’ll have to consider a complete withdrawal of troops post-2014.

So far, though, the Obama administration has fudged the deadline by which the security pact needs to be signed. So, what’s going on? What does Karzai want? Who’s going to win this game of chicken?

“In terms of what we wants, I don’t think there’s a specific thing that he wants — that if we give him that thing, then he’ll sign it. I think this has much more to do with his remaining in control of the situation,” said Sarah Chayes, a senior associate and expert in South Asia policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Part of the power play has to do with what happens in April when Afghanistan holds presidential elections, Chayes told Morning D. “We keep presuming this is an election — he’s not running, therefore he’s out of the picture once there’s a new government. I’m not sure that’s the case.”

Karzai wants to have a hand in who’s going to succeed him, but also what role he’s going to play in a follow-on government, she said.

-- IT’S ALSO ABOUT HIS LEGACY: Like any president, Karzai is also considering how history and the Afghan people will remember him, said Mark Jacobson, a former NATO official in Afghanistan who’s now at the German Marshall Fund.

“I think it’s the signing of the BSA itself that is a problem for him and that’s why I don’t think he’s going to sign it. He will then be responsible if things don’t go well — now and in the future. He’s trying to absolve himself,” Jacobson said.

-- IS KARZAI ERRATIC OR ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE? In November, John Podesta, now a White House adviser, said, “Karzai has really gone from maddeningly unpredictable to dangerously erratic.”

Chayes disagrees: “All of this is of a piece with how he’s been behaving for the last seven or eight years. Frankly, we’ve conditioned him to behave this way because whenever he throws a temper tantrum, we always cave.”

-- SO WHO BLINKS FIRST: Jacobson said that if the U.S. announced a deadline, it would set up a crisis. “If they’re playing a game of chicken,” he said, “I think Karzai is very willing to crash the car.”

But “Karzai is underestimating the degree to which everyone wants out of Afghanistan,” therefore his strategy is risky, Jacobson said.

For Chayes, Karzai’s running a risk, but it’s a calculated one and so far it’s working.

“The State of the Union would have been the perfect time to say, ‘Buster, you just ran out your clock,’” Chayes said. “The fact that the president didn’t do that provides me with every indication that so far Karzai has called the U.S. government exactly right. He’s been gambling that our deadlines didn’t count and so far, they haven’t.”

-- HEDGING THEIR BETS, MILITARY PLANNERS DRAW UP OPTIONS, via The New York Times’ Thom Shanker: “American and NATO military planners, facing continued political uncertainty about whether foreign troops will remain in Afghanistan after December, have drawn up plans to deploy a force this summer that is tailored to assume a training mission in 2015 but is also small enough to withdraw if no deal for an enduring presence is reached, alliance officials said.” http://nyti.ms/MmdX8y

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OBAMA TAPS ADM. ROGERS TO RUN NSA AND CYBERCOM, via POLITICO’s Philip Ewing and Darren Samuelsohn: President Barack Obama has picked Vice Adm. Mike Rogers, the Navy’s top cyber officer, to become the next director of the National Security Agency. He also nominated Rogers to be the new head of U.S. Cyber Command.

-- McCORD TAPPED FOR DOD COMPTROLLER: The president has nominated Mike McCord for Pentagon comptroller. He’s now the deputy comptroller and, earlier, had spent more than two decades working as a SASC staff member.

McCord would take over for Robert Hale, who has held the position since Feb. 2009.

“Bob Hale has been wanting to retire for some time and finally got a window when sequester and now the budget is more stable,” a defense source told Morning D.

-- WORMUTH NOMINATED FOR POLICY JOB: Christine Wormuth has been nominated to be the undersecretary of defense for policy, replacing Jim Miller, who stepped down earlier this month.

Wormuth is now deputy undersecretary of defense for strategy, plans and force development. If confirmed, she would become the second woman to serve in the post, the first being Michèle Flournoy.

-- MCKEON TAPPED FOR DOD JOB: Brian McKeon has been nominated for principal deputy undersecretary of Defense for policy to replace Kathleen Hicks, who left over the summer. McKeon has been chief of staff of the National Security Staff and deputy national security adviser for Vice President Joe Biden.

-- BALLENTINE PICKED FOR AIR FORCE POST: Miranda Ballentine, Walmart’s director of sustainability and renewable energy, has been nominated for assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment and logistics.

IN POLAND, HAGEL VISITS WARSAW GHETTO MEMORIAL: Monday was International Holocaust Remembrance Day and the 69th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp. This morning, Hagel took the opportunity to lay a wreath at the monument that commemorates the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. Defense News’ Marcus Weisgerber (@MarcusReports), who’s traveling with the secretary took a photo: http://goo.gl/pEFgTJ

AIR FORCE COMMISSION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ARMY BATTLE, via POLITICO’s Austin Wright: “The recommendations of the Air Force restructuring commission raise a number of questions for the Army as it deals with tensions of its own between its active and Reserve components.” http://politico.pro/Lgkdhi

-- For more on the National Commission on the Structure of the Air Force’s findings, check out yesterday’s coverage from POLITICO’s Leigh Munsil: http://politico.pro/LuPCNX

NUCLEAR FORCES UNDER THE MICROSCOPE, via POLITICO’s Philip Ewing: “Air Force leaders acknowledged on Thursday that systemic problems inside the ballistic missile force led to a cheating ring now believed to involve 92 officers but don’t know yet how to fix them. http://politico.pro/1a5j34a

PRELIMINARY FINDINGS FROM SEXUAL ASSAULT PANEL DISAGREE WITH GILLIBRAND, via U.S. News and World Report’s Paul D. Shinkman: “A panel that ultimately will advise the Pentagon on how it can stem the shocking trend of sexual assaults within the military released a preliminary finding Thursday, saying senior officers should maintain oversight of sexual assault cases within their chains of command.” http://bit.ly/1fnHY26

“Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has introduced legislation that would give oversight of such cases to a military lawyer outside the chain of command,” Shinkman writes.

A MUST-READ ON THE PERSONAL COSTS OF WAR, via Time Magazine’s Mark Thompson: A profile of Marine Sgt. David Linley, whose struggle with posttraumatic stress led to a run-in with the law, which landed him with a 16-year prison sentence.

“This is a story about what untreated post-traumatic stress can do to a man, his family, his life and his neighborhood.” http://ti.me/1ie7GHq

SPEED READ

-- The U.S. accuses the Assad regime of trying to stall on the destruction of its chemical weapons. AP: http://goo.gl/AZCCnV

-- With the help of the CIA, Saudi Arabia bought ballistic missiles from China in 2007. Newsweek: http://goo.gl/5N8wdl

-- Navy Yard shooter Aaron Alexis successfully lied to doctors about his mental health problems just three weeks before the shootings. http://wapo.st/1iSFqwW

-- An Israeli official says Hamas is in dire fiscal straits after losing access to hundreds of millions of dollars in income. The New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1bFY17s

-- At least 19 veterans have died because of delays in diagnosis and treatment at VA hospitals. CNN: http://cnn.it/1bEOc9J

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