THE UK economy is “flat- lining” with little or no growth, economists are predicting ahead of figures this week that will show whether the country has entered its first-ever triple-dip recession.

Thursday sees the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2013, which will be based solely on the output side of the economy.

Economists are putting the chances of a renewed downturn, which would happen if there have been two consecutive quarters of contraction in GDP, at up to 50 per cent.

They fear a return of the ­recession because GDP ­contracted by 0.3 per cent in the final three months of 2012.

Any further drop in GDP in the first quarter of 2013 would mean the UK has gone into its first-ever triple-dip recession, putting severe pressure on Chancellor George Osborne.

If the economy has expanded at all, it is expected to have grown marginally at about 0.1 per cent.

On Friday night global ­ratings agency Fitch downgraded the UK’s credit rating from AAA to AA, to reflect what it says is the country’s weaker economic and fiscal outlook. It was the second credit ­rating agency to strip Britain of its coveted triple-A rating.

Fitch’s move came just days after the International ­Monetary Fund raised doubts about the pace of Britain’s deficit reduction strategy.

Tony Dolphin, senior economist and associate director at the IPPR think tank, said: “It is touch and go whether we triple dip, I would say 50/50. Retail sales were up a fraction in March, but manufacturing is expected to be flat and ­construction down. Services will be positive, but the question is whether it will be positive enough to offset construction.

“Whether we have slightly negative or slightly positive growth isn’t important because the economy is essentially flatlining either way.

“The recession in Europe is doing nothing for our exports, the Government is cutting spending and household spending is squeezed. Employment growth is also tailing off, we may be grinding to a halt.”

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at think tank Global Insight said: “There is major uncertainty over the likely outturn [in GDP], given that it is unclear just how much economic activity was hit overall during the first quarter by the cold weather/snow that occurred in January, and then again in March.” He put the odds of a triple-dip recession at about 30 per cent. He added: “The main worry for first quarter GDP prospects is that there could have been a substantial drop in construction output.”

Simon Ward, chief economist at Henderson Global Investors, said: “Next week’s GDP number is going to be zero or a small positive like 0.1 per cent. Its important to bear in mind that the bad weather we’ve had is likely to have depressed activity. I think the risk of a triple-dip is 50:50.”

It is touch and go whether we triple dip, I would say 50/50

Tony Dolphin, IPPR

Next month a team from the International Monetary Fund arrives in the UK for its annual assessment of the British economy. It has already signalled that the Chancellor should show greater flexibility in his much-vaunted deficit reduction plan, dubbed Plan A. Osborne is expected to vigorously defend his strategy in the belief that it is in line with the IMF’s recommendations for advanced economies.

Incoming Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said the UK is still a “crisis economy”.

WPP’ s chief executive Martin Sorrell says business confidence in 2013 will be hit by the same issues as last year namely Eurozone debt crisis, Middle East tensions and fears over the Chinese economy. He added that the advertising giant has had a “good start” in the UK this year, ahead of the advertising giant’s first quarter results next week.