Budget 2012 will be followed with apprehension by many. Photograph: Jonathan Edwards

What's in the Budget for you? With speculation rife about what chancellor George Osborne will announce, we speak to a middle, high and low earner to find out their expectations – and fears – for the next year

The middle earner

The Ceraldi family: 'Stiched up'.

Like thousands of other middle income earners, Dominic Ceraldi hasn't had a pay rise this year. As a result, he says, his family's budget has become even more squeezed over the past 12 months as the cost of "almost everything" has gone up.

The HR manager, who works in central London for Pimlico Plumbers, earns almost exactly the median average salary for those who work in the capital – around £43,000, but is reluctant to replace the family car he sold over a year ago because he's not sure he can afford to run one.

Ceraldi, who came south from his native Lancashire to work, says he feels as though he has been "completely stitched up" by the coalition government that has targeted so many cuts on families with children in his income bracket.

He is one of the 750,000 who were caught in one of George Osborne's first acts – the move to lower the threshold at which point earners start paying higher rate (40%) tax. He, his wife, who now works as a part-time teaching assistant and their six-year-old son, have already lost tax credits worth £545 a year. They also face losing £1,055 from next year if the government goes ahead with its controversial plan to withdraw child benefit entirely for households that include one higher rate tax payer.

"Don't get me wrong, we are not pleading poverty and there are many others that are far worse off than us. However, we don't feel well-off and don't understand why we are being taxed as such. It certainly hasn't got any easier over the last year," he says.

Next month the rent on their small home in Silvertown, east London, will rise by around £45 a month. The cost of his travelcard has also risen by £5 a week. Water bills are on the up, and his only cost saving has come in lower gas and electricity bills after ditching the pre-paid meter the family inherited from the previous tenant.

He says they'd like to buy a car to replace the VW he was forced to sell last year in a bid to lower the family's outgoings but is worried the cost of fuel and insurance would put unnecessary pressure on other parts of their budget. Higher food bills have also taken their toll, he says.

"I will be very annoyed if the government goes ahead and takes away child benefit. They recently suggested that for most on higher incomes it would be like giving up the family curry on Friday night. I can assure them it doesn't get used for that purpose where we are – it all just goes into the family pot. Those who voted Liberal at the last election must be furious to be getting this," he says.

How middle income earners may fare in the Budget

•Tax Credits A whole raft of changes to tax credits are set to come into force on 6 April 2012, hitting families earning over £26,000.

The system is incredibly complicated but, broadly, from April you probably won't get child tax credit if you work at least 30 hours a week, have one child and your annual income is more than £26,000. Those with two children earning over £32,200 are similarly affected. In both cases they lose £545 a year. You could still qualify from 6 April if your income is above these amounts if you pay for approved childcare, are disabled, or have more than two children.

The only bright spot is that those who do qualify for tax credits, may receive more. For example, a family with two adults (both working full time) and two children but no childcare costs, with an income of £25,000 a year, will see their tax credits rise by £270 to £2,978 a year after April.

A couple with two children, a household income of £40,000, but childcare costs of £300 a week will also see a £270 a year rise to £7,748 after April.

There are also new hours rules for couples with children who claim working tax credit.

At the moment, if you are responsible for at least one child, you have to be in employment for at least 16 hours a week to qualify. From 6 April, in most cases, your joint working hours will need to be at least 24 hours a week to qualify. Single parents need only work 16 hours.

•Child benefit changes The government is committed to removing child benefit from any household that includes a higher rate taxpayer – those earning at least £42,475 from April 2013.

Child benefit, frozen last year, is £20.30 a week for the first child, and then £13.40 for subsequent children. A family with two children currently receives £1,752.40 a year.

Critics say the plans unfairly penalise stay-at-home mothers, where the father earns around £45,000 a year. A couple next door, each earning £40,000 a year with children would keep their child benefit under the current plans.

Expect some changes on in the Budget, or a raising of the threshold at which it is removed. At the very least Osborne will say he's looking at "the new tax on marriage", as it has been dubbed, with an announcement possible in the autumn statement.

• Fuel duty Last November Osborne conceded that operating a car is a necessity rather than a luxury for many households as he halted a proposed 3p a litre fuel duty increase on petrol and diesel due to come into force in January this year. Fuel duty is set to rise 3p a litre in August. Cancelling that too would be popular, but is not expected as a lot can happen to oil prices between now and then.

The high earner

Tony Stein: '50p rate hits normal people'.

Tony Stein is founder and director of Canterbury Care, which operates 11 care homes across the UK. Last year his earnings "just about touched" the £150,000 level at which further income is taxed at 50%. He joined more than 500 bosses of small and medium-sized companies who signed a letter to the Daily Telegraph in February calling for the 50p rate to be scrapped as it was damaging the economy.

"The tax, which is in effect a 58% tax after national insurance is taken into account, puts wealth creators like us in a very awkward position," the letter said, adding: "Repealing the 50p tax would demonstrate the chancellor's wish to celebrate British entrepreneurialism, stimulate industry and contribute to the government's growth agenda."

Stein, 47, says he is "more than happy to dig deep" at a time of austerity to help out those less fortunate. Although he adds: "We employ 455 people, but we have £14m in borrowing, and a big mortgage on my home. At the end of the day I have my neck on the line. Yes, I earn £150,000 or so, but it's me who has sleepless nights over the borrowings and operations of the business, and it's me who works all weekend. It's not as if I'm earning millions. Actually, what has me shouting at the telly is the executives of big banks who earn millions but aren't putting their own money at risk. The 50p rate is hitting normal people like me."

Higher taxes come at a time when the care home business is challenging, he says. "We are having to cope with higher fuel costs, regular increases in the minimum wage, everything is going up – but at the same time the fees we are able to charge are going down, and occupancy levels are down because local authorities don't have the money to place people in care."

But would a high earner such as Stein really be less inclined to be entrepreneurial, less likely to invest or less likely to employ people simply because income over £150,000 is taxed at 50%? "I take a broad view. I wouldn't really care if the rate was 60p in the pound. What I'm concerned about is, the 50% rate is now one of the highest in the world and we are no longer the go-to place for entrepreneurs."

He adds that, in his own situation, higher tax means he has less to invest in other businesses. "I've got a lot of friends who earn above £150,000. Most of them started businesses. This isn't about being greedy. The more tax that is taken, the less disposable income there is for people like me to reinvest into businesses and create jobs."

He's not optimistic that the chancellor will remove the 50% rate, but says he would like to see him announce a fixed date for when it will be abolished, plus a 10% rate for those who earn over £5m.

"At the moment, people in that league go offshore and don't pay anything in tax. If we taxed them at 10%, at least we get something. At the moment, we get 50% of nothing."

How high earners may fare in the Budget

• 50% tax rate Currently, earnings above £150,000 are taxed at 50%, called the "additional rate". The 40% rate applies to earnings above £35,000 which, once the personal allowance of £7,475 is added, means most people start paying on salaries above £42,475.

The government has already announced that the starting point for the 40% tax band will remain at £42,475 in 2012-13, which inevitably means that more people will start paying 40% tax than before. Few commentators now believe Osborne has the nerve to axe the 50% rate for the coming tax year, although the chancellor may announce a date when it will be removed.

• 60% anomaly High earners are more hopeful for a revision to the 60% anomaly in the tax system.

This arises on incomes between £100,000 and £115,000 as personal allowances are withdrawn, and means that earnings in that band are taxed more heavily than earnings above £115,000. Broadly, you lose £1 of personal allowance for every £2 of earnings over £100,000.

For example, on earnings of £104,000 to £105,000, the earner pays 40% in income tax (£400) but they also lose £500 of their personal allowance, which works out at an effective 60% tax deduction on earnings.

The chancellor may look at different ways of tapering the loss of personal allowance.

• Mansion tax This Lib Dem proposal to tax homes at 1% of their value above £2m could raise as much as £1.7bn, with around 40,000-50,000 homes falling into the net. A £2.5m home would pay £5,000 a year, while a £5m home would pay £30,000. It is billed as the Lib Dem quid pro quo for letting their coalition partners scrap the top 50% tax rate.

But if Osborne keeps the higher rate he's extremely unlikely to introduce this as well.

• Tycoon tax This flat-rate levy would ensure the wealthiest can no longer dodge taxes through various wheezes dreamed up by accountants. Mooted by Nick Clegg, it has split the Lib Dems, but recent reports suggest the chancellor is considering some form of minimum levy to avoid exploitation of tax loopholes by the rich.

• Pension tax relief The idea is that it's unfair that the better-off gain most of the benefit from tax relief on pensions. For every £1 a higher rate taxpayer puts into a pension, he or she receives 40p in tax relief, while a basic rate taxpayer earns relief at just 20p in the pound.

Limiting relief to 20p in the pound overall would save the government billions, but pension experts such as Baker Tilly say making changes to pension tax relief is a Gordian knot.

An easier option to raise revenue might be to reduce the current £50,000 cap on annual contribution levels into a pension.

The low earner

Alison Fulcher: Reliant on tax credits.

Alison Fulcher is crossing her fingers that the chancellor won't announce fresh cuts to the tax credits that she, and many other low-income households, rely on.

Fulcher, a 41-year-old single parent, holds down two jobs – she works as an art tutor, teaching a group of adults with complex needs and learning difficulties, and is also a support worker for a charity in Brentwood, Essex, where she lives. "At the moment, I work about 20 hours a week and rising. I'd love it to be full-time, and hopefully it will be," she says.

Thousands of families will be affected by changes to the tax credit system that take effect on 6 April. Couples with at least one child will, between them, need to work at least 24 hours a week to continue receiving working tax credit – up from 16 at the moment. However, because Fulcher is a single parent, she is not affected.

She will also escape another change taking effect on the same day – a slashing of the annual income limit for child tax credit eligibility – because she earns less than the new, lower income threshold of around £26,000 for people with one child.

Fulcher currently receives both of these tax credits and says: "I'm reliant on it." Cutting, or freezing, tax credits would be "difficult" for people in her position, though she adds that she wouldn't want those earning a bit more to be "taxed unfairly".

She supports the proposal to raise the income tax threshold to £10,000 to ensure low-paid workers are exempt from paying tax (see right).

Fulcher, whose daughter is 15, has been divorced for more than 10 years and does not receive financial support from her ex-husband. She was a property owner until about four years ago, and now rents a terraced house, for which she pays around £750 a month.

Like millions of other people, she has felt the impact of rising petrol and food costs. "I use my car an awful lot with my work. Petrol is quite a large part of my weekly budget." She adds: "We very rarely eat out. I must admit, if we have an indulgence, it is cooking the things we like."

Fulcher has received support from Gingerbread, the charity for single parents, which offers advice and information on benefits and other issues.

How lower income earners may fare on in the Budget

•Income tax allowance The government is committed to taking low-income earners out of tax by gradually raising the income tax allowance to £10,000. The allowance is due to increase by £630 a year to ensure the £10,000 target is met by April 2015, although senior Lib Dems would like to see this accelerated.

We will find out on in the Budget whether they have had any success with their lobbying.

In April 2011 the personal allowance for people under 65 rose from £6,475 to £7,475 for the 2011-12 tax year, and it has already been announced that next month it will rise again to £8,105 for 2012-13.

However, the basic rate limit will fall by £630, taking it from £35,000 in 2011-12 to £34,370 in 2012-13 to ensure higher-rate taxpayers do not benefit from the increase. In 2010-11 the basic rate limit stood at £37,400.

•Tax Credits See above.

•VAT The standard rate of VAT rose from 17.5% to 20% in January 2011, and there have been plenty of calls for it to be cut to stimulate growth and ease the pressure on household budgets.