We maintain our Cautious coverage view of Fertilizers, with 5% downside on average to our revised 12-month price targets. Despite recent signs of a price floor emerging, Potash (K) fundamentals remain challenged, in our view, given sustained global over-supply that lead our price forecasts to stay well below 2010-2012 over our forecast period…We downgrade shares of Mosaic to Sell, with 13% downside to our revised 12-month target, as we see an unfavorable risk/reward with shares only 8% below July 2013 levels despite a significantly less favorable K price outlook given our s/d forecasts. We also reiterate our Sell rating on [Intrepid Potash (IPI)], where we continue to see limited FCF generation in 2014- 2016 given our NA K price outlook, even giving [Intrepid Potash] credit for recent cost cutting.

Which of course begs the question: Why didn’t Samuelson cut Potash (POT)? He has an answer:

We downgrade [Mosaic] to Sell but keep [Potash] at Neutral given (1) greater valuation support at POT given its 4.1% dividend yield, which we view as sustainable given our pricing/cash flow forecasts, which we also believe is a key appeal for [Potash’s] large Canadian institutional holders, (2) a more favorable cost outlook at [Potash] following recent headcount reductions, which should help the company improve utilization at lower-cost facilities (e.g., Rocanville), and (3) earnings ballast from a less negative near-term [Neutral] outlook at [Potash]. That said, our revised $32, 12-month price target for [Potash] still implies 5% downside and our core K industry view is that both companies will be significantly impacted.

Shares of Mosaic have dropped 1.2% to $47.72 at 3:08 p.m., while Intrepid Potash has fallen 1.2% to $16.35 and Potash has declined 1.4% to $33.26.

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