Folklore- weather predictions

Fall begins with the autumnal equinox! Officially Fall has begun. Summer is gone and we now are looking at winter. Now is the time that the predictions start to happen as to what kind of winter will we have. Weather prediction the old fashion ways is fascinating and I have found often true. Instead of running to weather. c o m, we should be learning to look around and reading the signs.

There’s an old weather proverb that states, “If autumn leaves are slow to fall, prepare for a cold winter.” This means that leaves that hang onto the tree indicate a colder winter to come.First Day of Fall 2016: The Autumnal Equinox
I know I have started this conversation before but I believe some signs, especially animal activities do tell us of what is to come. I am putting this in Back to Basics because that is what we should be doing is going back to the basics of signs, looking and listening. What some call folklore, some live by. Farmers have signs that they look for every year. After reading the list below, I would say there is a high probability of my having an early winter, snowy and cold.

Here are 14 folk methods of predicting winter weather.

Woolly Worms
According to folklore, the black-and-brown caterpillars of the tiger moth species can predict just how cold and snowy it’s going to be for the upcoming winter when spotted during the fall season. The caterpillars have black bands at each end of their bodies, and a reddish-brown section in the center. Folk wisdom has it that when the brown band is narrow, winter weather will be harsh. How accurate is this? Surveys have found that woolly worms’ weather predictions have been accurate 80% of the time since the 1950s.

Animals’ Fur Gets Thicker
If animals have an unusually thick coat of fur as winter approaches, expect it to be colder than normal. A similar sign is said to be when animals, including pets, seem to be storing more fat than usual.

Unusual Squirrel and Bird Activity
Are the squirrels in your yard urgently gathering up great quantities of acorns, and birds dive-bombing your bird feeder in an attempt to get as much food out of it as quickly as possible? This may mean that a big storm is on the way. Squirrels may also bury their nuts deeper than usual. The idea is that these animals can sense impending weather, and are preparing for it.

Thick Shells on Acorns
Can acorns predict a rough winter? The Farmer’s Almanac, which has long been relied upon to provide long-range winter weather forecasts based on mathematical formulas and astronomic activity, points out a piece of lore that says thicker acorn shells mean an extra-cold winter. The Almanac notes that such sayings have been “handed down from generation to generation, so perhaps in some of the handing down, some of the lore has been altered slightly. But some have remained the same and often times prove to be quite accurate.”

Bees Nesting in the Trees
When hornets, wasps and bees start building their nests higher in the trees, expect a severe winter with lots of snow.

Foggy August
Legend has it that for every foggy morning in August, there will be a snowfall during the winter. Is this really true? Attempts to analyze figures in one small North Carolina town found that it didn’t hold up, but no large-scale studies have been done.

Lighting in Winter, Expect Snow in 10 Days
If you see lightning during the winter, it will supposedly snow in 10 days. On a similar note, if the first thunder comes from the east, winter is over.

Early Bird Migration
When the geese start flying south earlier than usual, they’re fleeing oncoming winter weather. The same holds true for other species of birds that usually migrate out of your area. If they’re still hanging out in late November, the idea is that they’re not in a big hurry to leave because they know the winter weather won’t be severe.

Here’s another, much odder tale involving geese: obtain the breastbone of a decently deceased goose (good luck with that.) The length of the breastbone indicates the length of the oncoming winter, and the color indicates its severity. The more mottled the breastbone, the colder and snowier it will be.

Early Rodent Infestation
It’s no old wives tale that rodent activity decreases during unseasonably warm weather, but some people believe they can sense minute changes in weather and prepare for it, too. If your home is prone to mice infestations and you start hearing activity in your walls earlier than normal, winter may come earlier than you expect.

Bigger Pine Cones
Trees will supposedly produce a greater quantity of larger pine cones than usual before a severe winter, to ensure that some seeds will make it through the squirrel and bird feeding frenzy.

Thicker Corn Husks
The same folk wisdom that says thick acorn shells can predict a severe winter applies to corn husks and onion skins, too. If corn husks are very chick and tight, the corn – which relies on warm weather to thrive – is trying to protect itself from cooler weather.

Brighter Fall Foliage
The brighter the fall foliage, the colder and snowier the winter ahead, the saying goes.

Science will always say no to something that cannot be "scientifically" proven but those that watch and remember know better. My Grandparents would make statements about seasons to come from what they saw, not what they read or what the TV told them. They lived their lives to what they felt and thought.

I heard the more berries the worst the winter will be, last year was a mild winter and not many berries.

I found this list of signs of a harsh winter ahead in the comments section of a Farmers Almanac article:

20 Earthly Signs of a Harsh Winter Ahead

1.Thicker than normal corn husks
2.Woodpeckers sharing a tree
3.Early arrival of the Snowy owl
4.Early departure of geese and ducks
5.Early migration of the Monarch butterfly
6.Thick hair on the nape (back) of the cow’s neck
7.Heavy and numerous fogs during August
8.Raccoons with thick tails and bright bands
9.Mice eating ravenously into the home
10.Early arrival of crickets on the hearth.
11.Spiders spinning larger than usual webs and entering the house in great numbers
12.Pigs gathering sticks
13.Insects marching a bee line rather than meandering
14.Early seclusion of bees within the hive
15.Unusual abundance of acorns
16.Muskrats burrowing holes high on the river hank
17.“See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest”
18.Narrow orange band in the middle of the Woollybear caterpillar warns of heavy snow
19.The squirrel gathers nuts early to fortify against a hard winter
20.Frequent halos or rings around sun or moon forecast numerous snow falls.

I didn't either at first. My Google-Fu is strong, though. It's a Persimmon seed, and the myth is that if you split the seeds open and the sprout resembles a spoon, you will have a snowy winter. If it resembles a knife, it will be an icy winter, and if the sprout resembles a fork, the myth is that you will experience a mild winter. But, the majority of the seeds are reported to depict a spoon-shaped sprout. *shrugs*

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. "-- J. Krishnamurti“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” -- George Orwell
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Besides Farmers Almanac, I have learned to watch my Dogs close! If they start packing on the fat, and the fur starts getting thick, chances are good it's going to be a cold winter. I also know the berries are a good tip off for a snowy winter. I hadn't heard of the trees "keeping leaves" I always assumed that if they all fell off in just a day or three, that meant it was going to be a bad winter! In Orygun, if it started to rain On or just after Oct 12th, it would be a normal cold and wet winter, it it started a week or two earlier, it usually meant Snows and or Ice. If you got a cold snap before the end of October, you would get Ice later on, and while rare, snow around Thanksgiving! Oregon has not has a good Ice storm in YEARS, and when it does come, it's going to be Very Nasty for you guys up there, all the trees have weekend from not having ice or heavy snows like you used to get, and when you do finally get a good storm, Every thing is going to come crashing down!

I didn't either at first. My Google-Fu is strong, though. It's a Persimmon seed, and the myth is that if you split the seeds open and the sprout resembles a spoon, you will have a snowy winter. If it resembles a knife, it will be an icy winter, and if the sprout resembles a fork, the myth is that you will experience a mild winter. But, the majority of the seeds are reported to depict a spoon-shaped sprout. *shrugs*

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Been tracking a few years 20 seeds every October. 2013/2014 (12) Knives (2) forks (6) Spoons And in most circles knives mean cutting winds And the winter of 2013/2014 was just that. 2014/2015 (7) knives (13) Spoons (0) Forks And it was a heavy snow winter that just would not end. 2015/2016 (17) Knives (1) Spoon (2) Forks Brand new green house launched 50 feet straight up and landed upside down 500 feet away when the wind got under it. High corner of the high tunnel ripped in 80-90mph gust and it popped like a big balloon bending and twisting the 300' of U channel that holds the film down and on. This year 2016/2017 (7) Knives (8) Spoons (5) Forks Old time up the road says it means winter is going to be all over the map and crazy this year. Real or Myth? who knows but it is fun to mess with and look back and see how it played out For actual predictions I go more by how heavy or light the crop is. Which I guess would be the same as the berries since Persimmons are a Berry and not a Fruit. Every year there has been a limb sagging crop it has been a long gold winter with either a lot of snow or ice.

For actual predictions I go more by how heavy or light the crop is. Which I guess would be the same as the berries since Persimmons are a Berry and not a Fruit. Every year there has been a limb sagging crop it has been a long gold winter with either a lot of snow or ice.

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And so, did I miss something or did you make your prediction? Sag, not sag, dat's de kweschun.

We have had a bunch of rain and Temps are in the 30's at night. We have 2 days of sun right now and then back to rain for a week or so.

"Freedom isn't free" --Colonel Walter Hitchcock
“The most important six inches on the battlefield is between your ears.” General 'Mad Dog' James Mattis
non semper erit aestas- It will not always be summer (be prepared for hard times)!!

Been tracking a few years 20 seeds every October. 2013/2014 (12) Knives (2) forks (6) Spoons And in most circles knives mean cutting winds And the winter of 2013/2014 was just that. 2014/2015 (7) knives (13) Spoons (0) Forks And it was a heavy snow winter that just would not end. 2015/2016 (17) Knives (1) Spoon (2) Forks Brand new green house launched 50 feet straight up and landed upside down 500 feet away when the wind got under it. High corner of the high tunnel ripped in 80-90mph gust and it popped like a big balloon bending and twisting the 300' of U channel that holds the film down and on. This year 2016/2017 (7) Knives (8) Spoons (5) Forks Old time up the road says it means winter is going to be all over the map and crazy this year. Real or Myth? who knows but it is fun to mess with and look back and see how it played out For actual predictions I go more by how heavy or light the crop is. Which I guess would be the same as the berries since Persimmons are a Berry and not a Fruit. Every year there has been a limb sagging crop it has been a long gold winter with either a lot of snow or ice.

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I wish you would put that in a spreadsheet. It would be cool to judge the old wives tales next to the outcomes.

And so, did I miss something or did you make your prediction? Sag, not sag, dat's de kweschun.

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7-8-5 According the old timer up the road locally we will get hit with everything about equally. Going by the crop I will go with a long cold winter. The good news is I will have plenty of persimmons this year to make our Persimmon/Cinnamon (PerCinnamon) Jelly, last years crop sucked and only made 500 pints I predict 5000+ pints this year

From the signs of winter that I listed in the opening post, I have no clue. We have had mice invading since July and an abnormal amount of pine cones. Not big ones but lots of them and the squirrels have been eating away.

Up here in the NW the weather has changed quick. It is getting cold at nights.....
Waiting to get hit by the remnants of a typhoon later this week....fun.

"Freedom isn't free" --Colonel Walter Hitchcock
“The most important six inches on the battlefield is between your ears.” General 'Mad Dog' James Mattis
non semper erit aestas- It will not always be summer (be prepared for hard times)!!

I havn't lived here long enough to really get a read on the weather predictions, but basing my observations of the animals and the fact that my "Pet" Brown Bear ate a really large amount of my berries over a period of a month and a half, I would say we are probably going to be getting a pretty good amount of snow and for a longer period of time then what I have seen and heard from others! The fact that we all ready got several inches of the soft and fluffy white stuff reinforces this theory. My Bear went and dug out a nice little cave for him self about three miles away, and he is checking in on the place and making improvements daily, so according to what I have learned about the bears in this area, it's a bit early for them to be digging in!

It just feels to me like a moderately heavy snowfall is coming this year. Cold is always to be expected, no hokus pokus required with that one. The wind is alive, always moving with variance in temperature --no foretelling necessary. Never really had a method, just trust my instinct.

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. "-- J. Krishnamurti“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” -- George Orwell
Consider supporting Survivalmonkey.com by becoming a Site Supporter.

Besides Farmers Almanac, I have learned to watch my Dogs close! If they start packing on the fat, and the fur starts getting thick, chances are good it's going to be a cold winter. I also know the berries are a good tip off for a snowy winter. I hadn't heard of the trees "keeping leaves" I always assumed that if they all fell off in just a day or three, that meant it was going to be a bad winter! In Orygun, if it started to rain On or just after Oct 12th, it would be a normal cold and wet winter, it it started a week or two earlier, it usually meant Snows and or Ice. If you got a cold snap before the end of October, you would get Ice later on, and while rare, snow around Thanksgiving! Oregon has not has a good Ice storm in YEARS, and when it does come, it's going to be Very Nasty for you guys up there, all the trees have weekend from not having ice or heavy snows like you used to get, and when you do finally get a good storm, Every thing is going to come crashing down!

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You're right about those ice storms. I live just west of the mouth of the Colombia River Gorge! It's like an ice storm shotgun, point blank range, pointed at our house!
We keep serious cold weather gear, crampons, real chains for my Dodge PU (4 chains), rock salt, on and on. A few years ago I lost power for five days in an ice storm (freezing rain). Drove the wife and kid to my moms, then came back to do a chill while keeping the pipes from freezing. It was ok, I was well equipped, plus I spent two winters on the DMZ in Korea! Pretty good cold weather training!

I learned a certain amount of weather lore from my grandpa when I was little, but that old dairy farmer owned a good barometer! So do I! I do watch the birds for signs, I'm feeding the little loafers, anyway!
The Dark Eyed Juncos winter in this area, after breeding in the north, and they've been here a while now! Pretty early! I trust them more than meteorologists!

We are looking at 60+ on the coast and 55 mph winds inland tomorrow with heavy rain. Most of our power lines are overhead and heavily wooded around here....so power outages for the next three days are almost a given!!

"Freedom isn't free" --Colonel Walter Hitchcock
“The most important six inches on the battlefield is between your ears.” General 'Mad Dog' James Mattis
non semper erit aestas- It will not always be summer (be prepared for hard times)!!