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Recalibrating U.S. Strategy Toward Russia:A New Time for Choosing From Center for Strategic and International Studies: “A new CSIS report titled, Recalibrating U.S. Strategy toward Russia: A New Time for Choosing, offers the framework for a comprehensive strategy toward Russia, one derived from analysis and insights regarding key elements of past U.S. policy toward Russia; historical Russian reactions to major events on its periphery; and the tool sets each side can bring to bear in advancing its national interests." ​

Mrs. Lado is among around 4,000 South Sudanese who flee south to Uganda every day in search of food and security amid what the international officials and aid groups warn is a humanitarian crisis that is becoming one of the globe’s worst threat of famine in 70 years. After the fighting between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and rebels under his former vice president, Riek Machar, flared up in July, the government has devoted more resources to the war effort than to protecting the civilian population. The incessant fighting, meanwhile, has displaced farmers and ruined harvests. – Washington Times

South Africa: Zuma Walks?Jacob Zuma is considering offering to step down next year, at least 12 months before his term as South African president ends, under a deal with opponents in his ruling party that would see Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan leave office now, two senior party sources said. - Reuters

Adrian Karatnycky writes: Poroshenko and parliament would be right to support further amendments streamlining NGO government reporting requirements. Better still would be an agreement through which NGOs themselves developed self-enforced standards of transparency about their sources of income and levels of compensation. – Atlantic CouncilMaxim Eristavi writes: It is time for Ukraine's friends and donors to call the bluff of the country’s ruling elites by making clear that recent counterrevolutionary moves must be rolled back and Ukraine's political leadership will face serious consequences in terms of political and economic support for any future ones. Trivial statements and tweets won’t work this time; old-school political pressure is needed. One of the main lessons of the Maidan Revolution for Ukrainian allies has been that local civil society is the best partner in delivering progressive change in Ukraine. Now is the time to reaffirm strong vocal support for it. And making sure that Ukraine’s ruling elites know the exact price for attacking reforms. – Atlantic Council

China's rapid development of new destroyers, amphibs, stealth fighters and long-range weapons is quickly increasing its ability to threaten the United States and massively expand expeditionary military operations around the globe, according to a Congressional report. – Scout Warrior

Josh Rogin reports: If President Trump goes through with an expected summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-lago next week, the United States’ allies in Northeast Asia will be watching closely to see if the Trump administration will stand by its friends against increasing pressure from Beijing. How Trump deals with China’s massive retaliation against South Korea in response to U.S. missile defense deployment is one crucial test. – Washington PostMichael Morrell and Admiral James Winnefield, USN (Ret.) write: The first responsibility of a leader is to face reality. Setting aside our previous belief that we can convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program will unlock the door to a different policy. But there are still no easy answers. Indeed, a new policy requires even more firmness and finesse—carefully calculated though it must be—conducted across the full range of instruments of national and international power to deter use and proliferation and to demonstrate to other nations the high cost of commencing such a program. – The Cipher Brief

NORTH KOREA: North Korea's Nuclear Test Site ActiveFrom Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., 38 North: “Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates activities are taking place at a number of key facilities directly related to the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons.”

Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes: Political Islam is not just a religion as most Western citizens recognize the term “religion,” a faith; it is also a political ideology, a legal order, and in many ways also a military doctrine associated with the campaigns of the Prophet Muhammad. Political Islam rejects any kind of distinction between religion and politics, mosque and state. Political Islam even rejects the modern state in favor of a caliphate. My central argument is that political Islam implies a constitutional order fundamentally incompatible with the US Constitution and with the “constitution of liberty” that is the foundation of the American way of life. – Hoover Institution

In spontaneity and sprawl, the weekend protests across Russia were reminiscent of large anti-Kremlin rallies in 2011-2012 that were followed by a steady tightening of government control over the political landscape. But one thing sets the two apart: the striking preponderance of young protesters in their late teens and early twenties -- a generation that includes many who have only ever known life under Vladimir Putin. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Julia Ioffe writes: Monday, as Moscow courts rushed to process the hundreds and hundreds of arrests, the Moscow opposition struggled to process what had happened. Like the protests that exploded on their streets five years ago, these were an unexpected breach in the façade of indifference and acceptance that the Kremlin had worked so hard to erect. Behind it, though, something had clearly changed. – Atlantic Council

CHINA: China Expands Militarization of the South China SeaFrom Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: “China’s three air bases in the Spratlys and another on Woody Island in the Paracels will allow Chinese military aircraft to operate over nearly the entire South China Sea. The same is true of China’s radar coverage, made possible by advanced surveillance/early-warning radar facilities at Fiery Cross, Subi, and Cuarteron Reefs, as well as Woody Island, and smaller facilities elsewhere. China has maintained HQ-9 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems on Woody Island for more than a year and has on at least one occasion deployed anti-ship cruise missiles to the island. It has now constructed hardened shelters with retractable roofs for mobile missile launchers on the Big 3.”

India’s temple politics: The 1992 demolition of the 16th Century Babri mosque in Ayodhya, believed to be the birthplace of the Hindu god Ram, marked a watershed moment in Indian politics and paved the way for the rise of the pro-Hindu BJP. Asia Times reports that in April, India’s Supreme Court will hear submissions on reopening 25-year-old criminal conspiracy charges against leading BJP figures who, it is alleged, were involved in religious riots that caused 2,000 deaths, and this something that will reopen deep and old political wounds.READ THE STORY HERE

Modi: Pernicious TaxationIndia tax laws: A new taxation bill introduced by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley sprang a surprise that may have serious implications for the privacy of citizens and funding for India’s political parties reports Asia Times. Jaitley tacked on 30 pages of amendments, some of which will expand the power of income-tax officials who, under the new laws, will be able to enter homes and offices in order to conduct search or seizure operations without having to explain their actions.READ THE STORY HERE

North Korea: Stronger Kim, but Weaker Kims? From Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Finding a solution to North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and missile programs grows more urgent by the day. Our previous strategies—delay and denial—will no longer avail us. But the three standard options—diplomacy, sanctions or use of force—all have downsides. Diplomacy’s proven ineffective; sanctions are difficult, slow and uneven; and the use of force might well beget a wider war. Is there a sleeper option—regime change? In the wake of Iraq and Libya, regime change has a bad name. But the question’s worth revisiting, precisely because of the recent killing of Kim Jong-nam.” ​

Rep. Ted Yoho writes: Underscoring the critical interests at stake, the hearing made evident that the United States has several unilateral tools available which could finally begin to impose costs on China’s destabilizing actions in the South and East China Seas. We should start using these tools. – National Interest

Disappointing Rookie Tillerson in Asia. @gordongchang

"...● “Mutual respect” and “win-win solutions.” In Beijing, Tillerson parroted the Chinese when he said that U.S.-China relations should be built on “nonconfrontation, no conflict, mutual respect and always searching for win-win solutions.” As a general rule, it is not a good idea for senior U.S. officials to repeat such Chinese formulations nearly word for word, since they will be interpreted in China based on the official narrative of the Communist Party. But this was a minor mistake compared with the Obama administration’s 2013 embrace of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal for a “new model of great power relations” between Beijing and Washington. That six-character Chinese phrase cast the United States and China as the two powers that should decide the future of Asia, implicitly downgrading U.S. allies and partners such as Japan and India to second-tier status. In contrast, Tillerson’s use of mundane Chinese Foreign Ministry rhetoric described a bilateral process and did not place China in a privileged position over democratic U.S. allies. Still, in the future, the secretary will want to find his own words to characterize relations with China, which — as he pointed out in other parts of his public remarks — are highly competitive but do hold the potential for greater cooperation.

●“All options are on the table ” with North Korea. Tillerson also took a bit of heat for this statement at his Seoul news conference Friday. But this is exactly the warning that a Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush administration would probably be sending right now. Over the past year, Pyongyang has raced toward its goal of fielding an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the continental United States with a nuclear warhead. It has deployed hundreds of missiles capable of reaching Japan, South Korea and U.S. bases on Guam and showed a willingness to employ biological or chemical weapons when it allegedly ordered the assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half brother in Malaysia using VX nerve agent. The United States is unlikely to choose a preemptive military strike, but it is critical at this moment to reiterate long-standing U.S. policy toward North Korea: that all options, including military and even nuclear options, will be considered, as necessary, to deter attacks on our homeland or allies....
​https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-report-card-on-tillersons-trip-to-asia/2017/03/21/a8487e50-0d9f-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?utm_term=.b643bcaa4098

Denis Foretia writes: Cameroon faces a historic opportunity to transform itself into a pluralistic, democratic, broad-based market economy where diversity is at the core of its raison d’être. It can choose to be a country where open, frank debates are celebrated, as demonstrated in Ghana, not one where countless presidential decrees are the norm…Will the Biya government see the writing on the wall or will it, by being incapable of changing, continue down its repressive path with the consequences that abound? – Washington Post

A lawyer representing the family of Sergei L. Magnitsky, a Russian auditor and lawyer who died in prison in 2009 after uncovering a $230 million fraud targeting an American-born financier, suffered severe head injuries on Tuesday after plunging from his Moscow apartment building. – New York Times

Michael Green writes: President Trump vowed as a candidate to make unpredictability a hallmark of his foreign policy, and he has shifted positions on fundamental questions, such as whether the United States will defend allies or maintain the one-China commitment that the past six presidents made the basis for U.S.-China relations. Tillerson hit the right tone, but U.S. foreign policy needs an effective chorus backing him up in Washington. – Washington Post

Abraham Denmark writes: First, deploying THAAD to the Korean peninsula should be seen as a purely defensive response to the growing threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. Second, the United States should be clear that the problem is not THAAD — the fundamental problem is North Korea, its continued belligerence, and its ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Washington and Seoul would not need THAAD if the threat of Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles were not so great. Third, the United States should be unequivocal in its commitment to work with its allies to ensure that its military posture is sufficient to defend them. This means that if North Korea continues on its course, THAAD may just be the beginning. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government

Joseph Bosco writes: President Trump, who prides himself on being the ultimate deal-maker, can start collecting on the debt the PRC incurred to Nixon and his successors whose policies helped build China into the economic and military powerhouse it is today — and into the “Frankenstein” monster Nixon had feared he’d helped create. – Taiwan Sentinel

North Korea has likely mastered the technology to power the different stages of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and may show it off soon, analysts say, but it is likely still a long way from being able to hit the mainland United States. - Reuters

Ely Ratner writes: The Trump administration will get a do-over on China policy when Xi eventually visits. But this shouldn’t be rushed. Senior posts first need to be filled at State and Defense. Public statements have to be consistent and coordinated. A China strategy should be developed, embedded in a comprehensive approach to the region. The media has to be more effectively managed to shape and sell the message. And the administration needs to spell out its overall approach to Asia to build confidence that it knows what it is doing. As of today, Trump isn’t ready for Xi, and Tillerson’s rhetorical blunder should serve as a wake-up call that there’s still work to do on several fronts. - Politico

“By failing to understand that the space between war and peace is not an empty one — but a landscape churning with political, economic, and security competitions that require constant attention — American foreign policy risks being reduced to a reactive and tactical emphasis on the military instrument by default,” Schadlow wrote in a 2014 op-ed for the website War on the Rocks.

The White House declined to comment on how that view of American power squares with the view of those inside the White House who support Trump’s “America First” foreign policy approach.

Schadlow, McMaster and other top officials who believe in soft power, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, may be able to influence the policy direction internally and bring the Trump administration to a posture more closely resembling the foreign policy the United States has pursued since World War II. Alternatively, they might become marginalized by top White House aides, and the national security strategy that Schadlow is tasked with developing could become a purely academic exercise.

Jackson Diehl writes: Last week Kara-Murza met me in Washington, visibly frail and short of breath, but alive. He believes he somehow survived two attempts to murder him with a sophisticated and virtually untraceable poison — the same kind of attack that has killed a host of other Putin opponents in the past decade. He was also pretty sure why he was targeted: because of his work on the Magnitsky sanctions. – Washington Post