Aleppo, Yabrud, and the end of the war on Syria

Aleppo, Yabrud, and the end of the war on
Syria

by Michael CollinsFebruary 17,
2014

The Syrian Arab Army may be on the verge
of another set of victories that go far beyond those gained
in the summer of 2013 when the Syrian army and Hezbollah
took the rebel held city of Qusayr. The hotly contested battles rage
in the major city of Aleppo and the much smaller mountain
city of Yabrud. Major gains in either locale would be
significant. Victories in both would raise questions about
the various rebel factions and their ability to continue
contesting for control of the country.

Syria's commercial
center and largest city, Aleppo, was divided at the start of the
Syrian conflict in July 2012. The government lost control of
half of the metropolitan area, key towns surrounding the
city, and the international airport.

The situation has
changed substantially since October 2013. The Syrian army captured
key towns in the countryside surrounding Aleppo, a critical
army base, the international airport, and scores of smaller
villages. Government forces continue to take key locations in
preparation for a final push to retake the city. The tactics
on both sides are brutal. Syrian forces drop barrel bombs on
Aleppo's rebel strongholds. Rebels recently executed
twenty-one Syrian government sympathizers.

Yabrud is a
small town in the mountainous region known as Qalamoun. It
borders Lebanon. Control of this area can facilitate or stop
the flow of arms to Syrian rebels. The city is controlled by
a local group of the now weakened Free Syrian Army. By
reports, the majority Sunni Moslems and minority Christians
have worked together to survive the ravages of the conflict
common throughout the troubled nation. The city also serves
as a home to a substantial number of "rebel gunmen."

As the Syrian army
advances, the rebels fight with each other. The Al Qaeda
affiliated Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIS) routinely attacks other rebel forces and both ISIS
and the Saudi sponsored Islamic Front attack the remnants of
the Free Syrian Army (FSA) at will.

Is a victory by the
Syrian government probable or even inevitable?This
question was unthinkable at the onset of hostilities between
the Syrian government and rebel forces aided by outside
funding and fighters? Taking back all or a substantial part
of the rebel held area in Aleppo would place Syria's two
largest urban areas under government control (Damascus is
the second largest city). Controlling Yabrud would cut off
supplies to rebel forces from one of the most productive
routes. Both areas are key to the control of northern Syria.
The remaining source of rebel weapons for the north, the Turkish government of embattled Prime
Minister Recep Erdogan, is drying up as greater scrutiny is placed on the prime
minister's aid to Islamist jihadist rebel groups.

Reports
indicate that a government victory in Yabrud may spark a
renewed offensive in the southern region of Syria near the
city of Daraa, a hotbed of revolutionary
activity near the border with Jordan. United States troops
are stationed near the border giving the Obama
administration one last opportunity for a Gulf of Tonkin
variation to justify U.S. military intervention. While a
possibility, the lucrative rewards of a rapprochement with
Iran, Syria's steadfast ally, are too great to justify
anything close to a commitment of ground forces or ongoing
aerial attacks on Syria. That was tried and failed
miserably.

Far from the cries of "Assad must go" heard
from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the
realpolitik of today's situation in Syria is grim for
the United States, Turkey, the Gulf oil states, and other
NATO supporters of regime change. The sovereign state of
Syria may remain that way. The costs to the Syrian people
are enormous. Millions have fled, the nation is largely
gutted due to the choice by rebels to focus their fight in
urban areas, and over 100,000 died in the conflict to
date.

The only outright winners in the tragic conflict are
Syria's allies, Iran and the Soviet Union. Iran's billions
of dollars in aid to the government and Russia's diplomatic
skills and weapons supply have allowed the Syrian government
to fight the combined resources and personnel of the major
NATO players (with the exception of Germany), Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, plus jihadist volunteers from Moslem countries from
Libya to Indonesia.

A final resolution of this conflict
will allow broader global efforts to move forward, efforts
that involve increased U.S. oil activity in Iran, and
lobbying for Syrian reconstruction efforts by the original
supporters of the carnage, the Western
powers.

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