Congress: An everest to climb

For the Congress, 2010 can be described in just one way - annus horribilis. Never before in its 125-year history has the party faced such politically catastrophic circumstances - multiple scams, tainted ministers and allies, a drubbing in the Bihar polls, a failed Parliament session and, to top it, runaway inflation.

advertisement

Kay Benedict

New Delhi

December 25, 2010

UPDATED: December 25, 2010 08:44 IST

For the Congress, 2010 can be described in just one way - annus horribilis. Never before in its 125-year history has the party faced such politically catastrophic circumstances - multiple scams, tainted ministers and allies, a drubbing in the Bihar polls, a failed Parliament session and, to top it, runaway inflation.

Besides, the ageing party has had to face an acute shortage of talent and mass leaders in states with no second or third-rung leadership. Though general secretary Rahul Gandhi seems to have diagnosed the problem, he has not been able to come up with a remedy.

The biggest question facing the Congress, therefore, is: In 2011, when five states go to the polls, what can the Congress hope for? The party may have enough time to marshal resources for the 2014 general polls, but time is running out for the elections in Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala - likely in April and May 2011.

Assam is the only state where the party is in power since 2001 and is desperately trying to buck the antiincumbency trend. In Kerala, the Congress may scrape through notwithstanding the scams and price rise because of the peculiar voter behaviour there - Kerala never votes the ruling party back to power.

In Assam, the party high command has drafted Digvijay Singh as the state in-charge.

Singh may try to forge an alliance with either the Bodo People's Front or the Assam United Democratic Front and woo a major chunk of the Muslim vote. But the stink of a `1,000 crore land scam in the state allegedly involving Congress ministers could prove to be the party's Achilles heel.

But the Congress has bigger problems in Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee, key ally Trinamool Congress's chief, is miffed with the party for its soft approach to the law and order situation. In other words, she wants the Centre to come down heavily on the CPM-led state government. Earlier this week, she threatened to quit the government and the alliance.

Analysts, however, said the threat was aimed to drive a tough bargain for more seats against a weak Congress.

Ironically, thanks to the 2G scam, Tamil Nadu is the only place where the Congress can bargain with its ally from a position of strength. The DMK is at the mercy of the party to fight its opponents. The performance in these three states will determine whether the UPA has a shot at a third stint at the Centre headed by Rahul Gandhi. But the task is uphill.

Annus mirabilis? Nah!

OPPORTUNITIES

Can use Rahul's charisma to regain ground with the masses and revitalise the Youth Congress for second and third-rung leadership

Polls in five states give the party a chance to recapture power or retain it

Can use Digvijay Singh's image as a Muslim sympathiser to win the community's vote - crucial in many states