Greens surge in Vic polls

The World Today - Wednesday, 22 November , 2006 12:30:00

Reporter: Daniel Hoare

ELEANOR HALL: With climate change and water policy now the dominant issues in the Victorian election campaign, the Greens are surging in the polls ahead of Saturday's vote.

Pollsters are predicting the party could win up to six seats in the new Victorian Upper House and may even take two Lower House seats from the Labor Party.

So this afternoon, Labor is stepping up its campaigning in one of the tightly contested inner-city electorates by sending in Premier Steve Bracks and the man Labor thinks is its best weapon when it comes to the environment vote, former rock star and now Federal Labor politician, Peter Garrett.

In Melbourne, Daniel Hoare reports.

DANIEL HOARE: After being written off as a somewhat wacky fringe group for many years, the Greens are now being viewed as a serious political player. Various polls in the lead-up to the Victorian election this Saturday predict the Greens could win up to six Upper House seats, which isn't all that surprising given that the reformed Victorian Upper House could end up accommodating a swag of minor parties.

But it's the Greens prospects in the Lower House that are making the Labor Party nervous. A number of polls indicate the Greens have a better-than-average chance of winning two key inner-city Labor seats, those of Richmond and Melbourne. The seat of Melbourne is held by the Bracks Government's Health Minister, Bronwyn Pike.

And so nervous is the Labor Party about losing the seat that they've taken the unusual step of leaking internal party polling in a bid to warn voters that a protest vote could see the Health Minister out of Parliament altogether.

Labor polling has Bronwyn Pike holding 41 per cent of the vote and her Greens' challenger, Richard Di Natale, holding an extraordinary 40 per cent.

And with the Liberals announcing they'll direct preferences to the Greens in four key inner-city seats, including Melbourne, Bronwyn Pike's chances of holding the seat have been further reduced.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says Labor sees the Greens as a genuine threat to their inner-city seats right across the country.

ANTONY GREEN: In all the capital cities the Greens do particularly within five kilometres of the GPO, they do very well in inner-city seats, which were traditionally left Labor seats.

DANIEL HOARE: How many seats is it possible for the Greens to win in the Lower House in this election?

ANTONY GREEN: Realistically their best chance would be two. They ran second in four seats last time and two of those, Melbourne and Richmond, the most inner-city seats of Melbourne they have a chance of winning. And in the Upper House, if their poll 13 to 14 per cent, they'll probably win six seats.

DANIEL HOARE: Melbourne is of particular interest not only to the Labor Party, but for watchers of politics, given that the current Health Minister in Victoria holds that seat. How threatening are the Greens in that seat?

ANTONY GREEN: Well, they came quite close last time, and the parties are saying that the Greens vote's even stronger this time, if it is even stronger they have a realistic chance of winning the seat.

DANIEL HOARE: The Labor Party's nervousness about its Health Minister's seat will be demonstrated this afternoon when it sends leader Steve Bracks out to meet and greet the public along with federal backbencher and renowned environmentalist Peter Garrett.

Kim Beazley might not have seen fit to promote the former rock star to his front bench, but there's little doubt that most members of the Labor Party see Peter Garrett as their best weapon when it comes to staving off the Greens.

ABC election analyst Antony Green again.

ANTONY GREEN: They've gone to the effort. I think Steve Bracks has done a, street walking the campaign and if he's taking Peter Garrett there, they clearly are concerned that they might lose a seat to the Greens. He's a visible face of an environmentalist who's chosen to join the Labor Party, rather than join the Greens. And there is a bit of a, there is a bit of a debate going on about what's the most effective way to represent the environment in Parliament, as one of the major parties that can form government, or as one of the minor parties that really only get power when they can get the balance of power.

DANIEL HOARE: The Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne is Richard Di Natale.

RICHARD DI NATALI: I think the result last time shows that we're in with the real show. Obviously the Labor Party are putting a whole lot of money into the seat, a whole lot of misinformation, a lot of pork barrelling, but I think despite that we're in with the real show.

DANIEL HOARE: You talk about climate change and water as two particular issues. They have been probably the dominant themes at this election. Does that suggest that the type of issues the Greens have traditionally campaigned on have finally come to the fore?

RICHARD DI NATALI: Well, I think the Greens are the only party that can be trusted to tackle climate change and water issues. We've been campaigning on those issues long before they were fashionable. We're not Johnny-come-latelies to the issue.

DANIEL HOARE: Greens senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle will also be out on the seat of Melbourne this afternoon, so it could make for an interesting afternoon for political watchers.