Tag Archives: Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

It seems that now situation is in favor Bear camp, honestly for them everything fall in place, because I am damn sure no Bears have expected such tumultuous situation which took place during last week. Global markets are under great uncertainty and currencies & crude are adding further vigor to it, in fact everything is interconnected and you can’t speak one in isolation. All in all now it is a Real Challenge for Bulls – Bulls are all those guys who are already long in the market, some are with their prized savings (Investors, Traders), some are with others savings (Mutual Funds) all are going face tough times. So let’s for next week how trader should position themselves keeping ongoing chaotic situation.

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Does market keeps you puzzled? If your answer is Yes, then don’t worry you are there with not least then 95% of the crowd (or may be 98-99%), and if you are answer is No then you are the indigenous and you certainly rocks. Most of us struggle to catch the right direction in the market (yes, including me), and if we come out with some conclusion then that is some thoughtful guess or probability based on our learning and experience which makes most of the difference. If we see in last one and half month market gave us some nasty surprises, placing a low of 7940 and recovered so quickly and swiftly, and now standing at 8600+ levels, and now what next? Again you are puzzled?? So lets try to solve this puzzle and see how to position for the coming week

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Stock market is a reflection of an economy, and price is a reflection of state of health of economy. As Martin Pring noted in his book, all price movements have one thing in common: They are reflection of the trend in the hopes, fears, knowledge, optimism, and greed of market participants. The week passed by was nightmare for hardcore bulls and rejoice for bears, however I believe that ratio of bulls should be higher in compare to Smart Bears. In hindsight, move of Thursday was a trap for small fish (read as retail participants) by Fisherman (read as FII’s and few large institutions). Once again last week set an example for us, and we should learn from that, and restrict ourselves from committing same mistakes again and again.

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Success is a journey, not a destination. The doing is often more important than the outcome. – Arthur Ashe.

In the beginning of this month markets gave an indication of northward moves, but the hope of recovery lasted only for a day, and on Tuesday when RBI announced 25 basis point Repo rate cut, market gave up all the gains, and to some extent monsoon forecast which release just after the rate cut added further fuel in selling pressure. Nonetheless, I was expecting positive move, and my anticipation went wrong, however I was very well aware that I am taking a contra bet, as most of the factors were not in favor of bulls, but I prefer to take my stand. In the coming week some Global tensions will decide our forte, which is out of our control, in that scenario let’s see what technical charts are suggesting us and how we should position ourselves, against the odds.

Nifty Daily Chart

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The week of Dilemma or Killing Volatility

Last week when I was writing, I was little confident that Nifty is likely to find support somewhere above 8470 levels, and I mentioned that very clearly. But, on Monday when market opened marginally higher and breached 8470, made a low of 8422.75, I was surrendered, and it was very clear that Nifty opened window for 8270 levels. Now on Tuesday & Wednesday Nifty drifted further lower, made a panic low of 8284.70 and recovered sharply from the lows, formed Hammer kind of candlestick pattern, which again reinstated hope of recovery in left over days, but unfortunately I was right only for first half of Thursday, in second half Nifty again gave up all the gains, and lastly on Friday it made another low of 8273.75 and lastly closed at 8305.25. Generally, I don’t prefer to bore you with describing last week’s price action, as it is of less use now, but In last five sessions we have seen extreme volatility, in an intraday Nifty moves were crazy and trust me whether you are long or short you are bound to give stop loss, no matter how smart you are, unless and until you are a positional trader and holding position without stop loss. Honestly speaking trading such market becomes very difficult.

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Win over your emotions.

Many of my readers must be thinking that, it is easy to do an analysis and writing once market is over. I certainly agree with them, and may be after looking at last Thursday’s and Friday’s price action, when Nifty almost gave a signal of breaking down and recovered from the lows. Honestly, it is very difficult to stay firm and maintain long position, if you are sitting in front of screen, even it was difficult for me. Today it is very easy for me to say that Overall tone of the market is Bullish, and Nifty was about to go higher after making a low. No I wouldn’t say this, rather I would admit that it was difficult and challenging task. From above observation, time and again I am coming across only one thought; You can make money in the market not with winning strategy, but with winning over your emotions. Continue reading →

Winners make a habit of manufacturing their own positive expectations in advance of the event. – Brian Tracy

Well, we have to agree with above quote. It is said that if you don’t believe in yourself than nobody is here to believe in you, so first you have to believe in You. Time and again we are saying and it is proved that nobody can stay right all the time in the market, even best of best traders are ready to accept their defeat and that is why they are best and winners, but even to prove wrong you have to have view and confidence in your understanding or for that matter in your trade. Yes, there is very thin line between faith, confidence and overconfidence.

Last week, Bears have confidence in their working and they proved it, but fruits of success were available only for that trader who has smartly taken position on Friday only, because there was choice available on Monday, as market opened sharply lower.

To understand and trade wisely let’s take fresh look on the market and see whether we can take something out of it or not?

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