Weekly Punt: Kangaroos Value

The reason the Weekly Punt continually makes profit is due to a special formula weighting given to player outs. Many of the line bets we take each week are largely factored by a team’s strength and even though sometimes a vastly undermanned team can still get up, this very rarely happens. What it means is that we can work out what the real margin should be rather than just looking at form guides.

Since they were demolished by Hawthorn back in round 10, the Kangaroos were looking out for the count going into the bye. The week after they played Gold Coast managing to get over the line by only seven points. Since then they have only lost one game, to Eagles by a kick and beating the betting lines all but one and it was against the Tigers, missing out by just a point. If only we knew that a rich vein of form would soon come about the weekly punt would’ve profited earlier. Last week we did not take them but against a very depleted Essendon outfit expect the Kangaroos to overturn the round one result (a game McIntosh could have won after the siren) in emphatic fashion and the -7.5 line offered by Sportsbet for North this week is our bet of the round.

The Blues have remarkably beating the betting lines ten times this season, so according to punters they have over-performed. So why do many in the media rate their season a shambles? If you do not take into account Carlton’s injuries, and some games were they’ve been hurt by umpires then you can see why a team expected to make top four and now struggling to make finals is perceived to be such. Nonetheless, they are good on the line and should be way too good for Brisbane this week at home. The -30.5 line offered by Sportsbet for Carlton should be covered well before the last quarter.

How many times has the Weekly Punt bet on the Swans this year and how many times have they paid out? For whatever reason at ad-nauseam they are continually underrated. That is why they are the equal no.1 team at beating the lines this year with 13 out of 18. They have also beaten the line the last six weeks and given they play the Pies who have done it the least times this year with only six, the -11.5 line offered by Sportsbet is yet again wrong, so again we will take the Swans and again you will sing ‘What though the odds be great or small, Swans will go in and win overall.’

Another team which is severely depleted and it is no wonder the Dees have performed poorly this year. Expect the much healthier Saints to do better than -47.5 line this week.

It may be odd to take a team that has just been beaten by GWS and lost their coach and president, but Port this week has Hawthorn – the Hawks are not the imposing team they were a week ago. We do expect Port to get thrashed at MCG but the +80.5 line offered by Centrebet is too high with Buddy still out.

Current Betting Fund: $3,786.50.

Total staked so far: $1,003.50

Essendon v North Melbourne – Handicap (-7.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Carlton v Brisbane – Handicap (-30.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Sydney v Collingwood – Handicap (-11.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

St Kilda v Melbourne – Handicap (-47.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide – Handicap (+80.5) – $100 @ $1.91 Centrebet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting. View BigFooty Odds for latest odds from a wide range of sports books.