Cooling Atlantic could keep a lid on hurricane season

Wednesday

Here’s what sea surface temperature anomalies look like in the Atlantic (top) as of Thursday, compared to a month ago (bottom). (Credit: NOAA)

The expected transition from El Niño to neutral conditions in summer — and possibly La Niña by fall — is one of the main arguments for a more active hurricane season. But Philip Klotzbach, who is busy working on the closely followed Colorado State University Atlantic hurricane forecast, says an active season may not be a done deal.

Klotzbach was quoted by Weather Underground blogger Bob Henson on the influence of colder water in the North Atlantic, and the possibility that the cooler conditions could show up this summer in the tropical Atlantic.

“When the far North Atlantic is cold, it tends to force wind and pressure patterns that then cool the tropical Atlantic,” Klotzbach told Henson. “We’ve seen a significant cooling of the eastern subtropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there is the potential that these cold anomalies could propagate into the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. If this occurs, there is the potential that the hurricane season may not be particularly active.”

Cooler than normal water has already begun filtering into the tropical Atlantic off the coast of North Africa. Also, The Gulf of Mexico has cooled considerably — at least compared to normal.

Usually, La Niña conditions reduce wind shear in the Atlantic and aid in the development of tropical systems.

The CSU hurricane forecast is due out April 14 with a follow-up scheduled for June 1, the start of the 2016 season.

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WET WEATHER REPRISE: Rainfall at week’s end was hit and miss in South Florida, with North Palm Beach County getting inundated with up to 6 inches Friday and South County getting hammered on Thursday. Central Palm Beach County, including Palm Beach, was mostly high and dry.

All areas will get another shot at precipitation on Monday, according to the National Weather Service, when rain chances jump back to 40 percent and 50 percent on Tuesday.

The trigger will be a cold front that edges down the peninsula and stalls over or near South Florida, then begins to wash out. Highs are expected to remain close to normal in Palm Beach, in the low 80s, while nighttime lows are forecast to be well above normal, in the low- to mid-70s.

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APRIL FOOLER? Accuweather is warning of a “polar vortex” temperature plunge in the Midwest and East in early April, complete with lake effect snow and freezing temperatures as far south as the Tennessee Valley. Wind chills could plunge into the single digits in the Upper Midwest, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

But the effects of the Arctic outbreak are likely to be greatly modified by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast and East Coast.

AccuWeather is actually calling for normal or slightly above normal temperatures in Palm Beach through April 10.