SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:53 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

Forum Fantastic

Members

13626 posts

LocationSilverton, OR

Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...).

One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...

DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:48 AM

DJ Droppin

Special Contributor

Members

6701 posts

LocationEast Portland, OR

12/1/17 6z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

Day 6-10, 8-14

Very nice improvement

Day 8-14 - The positive anomaly is forecast to retrograde to roughly 150 W with an incredibly amplified block anchored over south central Alaska. This would give southern Alaska very high 500mb heights. If the block were to tilt any we would see a major blast. In this configuration we'd likely see modified arctic air into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. I would be more confident if we had a ridge over the southeast/midwest. Some cold years showing up! 12z GFS in 3 hours 31 minutes!

ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 05:13 AM

ShawniganLake

Advanced Member

Members

4920 posts

LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Just looking through the data for November and I guess we are due for a dry break in the weather. 21 consecutive days with measurable rainfall here. And looking at other SW BC stations, seems like most are in the 21-24 day range.

Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:22 AM

Jesse

Forum Fantastic

Members

20402 posts

LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...).

One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...

wx_statman

Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:49 AM

Phil

Forum Fantastic

Members

17602 posts

LocationCabin John, MD.

In the climate department, we have an incredible latent heat release event ongoing now. Probably the strongest event since January 2013, from a subseasonal standpoint, and it's partially responsible for the upcoming period of wave amplification over the NPAC.

Under the antecedent -NAM, when the tropical wavenumber transitioned into a mode of constructive spatial interference approximately one week ago, convection strengthened markedly over the WPAC/IPWP, which extracted a massive load of heat from the Pacific ocean, releasing it into the middle/upper troposphere (condensation and crystallization releases latent heat).

This event has already dropped the global SSTA anomaly by at least 0.1C in just 5 days, and given the -NAM, which represents poleward transfer of heat/mass aloft in the NH, an anomalously large portion of this heat was sent into the NH extratropics, where it's now being emitted to space, as is reflected by the 1.4W/m^2 increase in the TOA OLR anomaly since Nov 18th.

Jesse

Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:02 PM

Phil

Forum Fantastic

Members

17602 posts

LocationCabin John, MD.

This latent heat release peaks on December 4th, before it starts to deplete, at which point the subtropics and middle latitudes will start cooling once again, while the equatorward wavetrain strengthens and destabilizes the integral of static stability in the tropics, restarting the cycle.

Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:48 PM

Jesse

Forum Fantastic

Members

20402 posts

LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Having a family day up in La Connor...I cannot wait for a dry day. Ugly.

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:52 PM

MossMan

Special Contributor

Members

6565 posts

LocationArlington, Wa

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

41yrs of being wet and cold! I’m fine with a wet soggy November but it’s now December and I’m ready to dry off a bit!

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:07 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

Forum Fantastic

Members

13626 posts

LocationSilverton, OR

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:17 PM

Deweydog

Forum Fantastic

Members

14943 posts

LocationHockinson, WA

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.

MossMan

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:17 PM

MossMan

Special Contributor

Members

6565 posts

LocationArlington, Wa

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

Andrew

It’s just an annoyance when you are trying to walk the shops in La Connor and it’s just dumping so trying to keep the 3yr old somewhat dry is a challenge. Looking forward to next week’s dryness!

Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:21 PM

Jesse

Forum Fantastic

Members

20402 posts

LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I'd like to believe you wrote this ironically but I highly doubt it's the case.

A normal distribution of summer heat is fine with me, if that’s what you are referring to. What we have been seeing recently isn’t normal. If our wintertime climate was indeed becoming colder and wetter I might be more sympathetic, but if anything the opposite seems to be true.

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:29 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

Forum Fantastic

Members

13626 posts

LocationSilverton, OR

I don't get upset about it, but November is the worst month of the year for me. It takes me until about Thansgiving to adjust to the darkness...Then I'm fine for the rest of the winter, but a few years back I realized it did have an impact on me.

Andrew

I took a break from writing about 10 emails to post this...And I signed my name on it like it was an email... ... Can it be 5pm yet please?!