Parliamentary and presidential elections took place in Q414, andwe believe that an investor-friendly government will be formed. Weare optimistic over the country's political trajectory even as threatsto the political transition, particularly those posed from the presenceof jihadist groups in the country, remain significant.

Tunisia's economic expansion will accelerate in 2015 as an improvingpolitical situation results in renewed business and consumerconfidence. An improvement in political stability will result in a returnof FDI from H215.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2015 forecast for Tunisian real GDPgrowth to 3.4%, from 3.9% previously and compared to 2.4% growthin 2014. We project average real GDP growth of 3.7% over the nextfive years.

Executive Summary

Core Views

Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Chapter 1: Political Outlook

SWOT Analysis

BMI Political Risk Index

Domestic Politics

Secularist Prominence Following Presidential Vote

The presidential and parliamentary elections in Tunisia mark a return to prominence for the secularist political parties. We believe that

moderate Islamist Ennahda will not be marginalised even if it does not participate in the new government. Investor confidence will