England draw the short straw

FOR England to be grouped with Wales for the 2015 World Cup had a grim and possibly menacing inevitability.

As long as Stuart Lancaster’s team play as they did in the record win over the world champions New Zealand on Saturday, any troubles they suffer against Wales in Pool A, or indeed Australia, will be surmountable. If they keep playing like that, they will win their own tournament for sure.

But here is the difficulty of looking so far ahead and calling a World Cup based on a draw made almost three years before the event, where the seedings which had Wales in the third tier and England in the second are dubious.

Judging from this far out, after the most awkward outcome that England could have imagined, it is possible that they could fail to make their own quarter-final which would be an unprecedented fate, even if they did struggle to make it through to the last eight a year ago.

Wales, on the other hand, have ghastly memories of their own exit in the group stages in 2007.

The draw was done now for logistical and organisational reasons, which is why there is a possible furore coming about where England play Wales at a World Cup entitled England 2015. Twickenham or the Millennium Stadium?

The draw was done now for logistical and organisational reasons, which is why there is a possible furore coming about where England play Wales at a World Cup entitled England 2015. Twickenham or the Millennium Stadium? There should not have to be a debate.

Lancaster as England head coach should not need to express a preference, but the Welsh – due to host eight fixtures with £1.4million support from the Welsh government and Cardiff City Council – are already pushing.

Debbie Jevans, the tournament director, was non-committal when this was put to her last night.

Lancaster has more pressing things on his mind. The 2013 Six Nations starts with a match against Scotland at Twickenham in two months, for instance. Even the Cumbrian wisdom he frequently professes cannot tell him how it will transpire when we get to autumn 2015. “I guess it was fate that England and Wales would end up together,” he said. “If you look at where Australia and Wales are in their development, it’s quite clear they are going to be very competitive in 2015. We’ve made decisions about building a team towards 2015 but, equally, when you look at the age of their sides, you can see they’re going to be in a similar state, with an experienced side with plenty of youth and good players.” This draw was possible only because England, by failing to overcome Australia and South Africa, had missed a top-tier seeding, while Wales, after losing every one of their four autumn Tests including matches against Argentina and Samoa, fell to ninth in the world.

When London Mayor Boris Johnson pulled out Wales, followed by Jevans pulling out England, there was an audible gasp in the Tate Modern, where the draw took place. As Lancaster remembers too well, Wales triumphed at Twickenham only last February.

But overcoming the All Blacks has changed the perception of England. “People have been very complimentary about the way we played but we’re a level-headed group and won’t be getting carried away,” said Lancaster.

“It has been fantastic to get support from other players and coaches who have said, ‘Well done on the performance’, because they recognise what a significant performance it was. But the next step is backing it up in the Six Nations.

“Our self-belief has grown, but it has to continue to grow to a point where we are consistent. We want to improve our ranking so that we’re a top-two side by the time the World Cup comes round.

“If we get to that point, we’ll know we have inner belief to get across the line, but there’s a lot of rugby to be played before then. Next stop Scotland.”

As Wales coach Warren Gatland then put it, Wales have only themselves to blame for the lowly status which helped give them their draw, barely a year since they significantly outperformed England by reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup in New Zealand.

“We put ourselves in this situation,” he said. “But our experience from 2011 is that if you come out of a tough group it sets you up well. Whoever comes out of that group will be in good shape physically for a quarter-final.”

Lancaster and Gatland had planned an Anglo-Welsh warm-up match before the next tournament, as before each of the past three World Cups, but this has already been abandoned.

Fiji are likely to be the Oceania team in Pool A. The Wallabies’ fine World Cup record and habit of peaking every four years are likely to be more of a threat to England and Wales than they are to each other, even if the Welsh have home advantage.

In fact, Wales have already lost three World Cup ties to the Wallabies in Cardiff, and lost again to them there last Saturday, so they might be better off pushing for the 2015 match to take place anywhere but the Millennium Stadium.