A 4GB version of the iPhone once rumored to play a major role at Wal-Mart discount chains was a no-show in 2008, though one Wall Street analyst now says there's evidence the device may turn up this year.

Previewing Apple's earnings report due next Wednesday, UBS's Manyard Um said he's concerned that iPhone shipments for the December holiday quarter could come in below his 5 million unit estimate, representing a considerable sequential decline from the 6.9 million units shipped during the September quarter.

However, "our UBS semis team and our checks indicate a new 4GB iPhone which may be helping to increase build rates," he wrote in a report to clients. Specifically, Apple's said to have placed manufacturing orders for 7 million iPhones in each of the first two calendar quarters, 5 million in the third quarter, and 4 million in the fourth quarter, all of which are seen as "relatively good numbers."

Still, the analyst took pause to caution his investment clients over the volatility of these said build rates, which "have seen cuts in the past and may change" or drive volume iPhone shipments at the expense of the company's historically high average selling prices (ASPs) and gross margins.

"Additionally, sell-through remains a concern and although we think a 4GB version would stimulate demand, we think it would likely cannibalize both the 8GB & 16GB models and the iPod Touch to a lesser extent," he added.

Based on some quick number crunching, Um estimates that pure cannibalization by a potential 4GB iPhone with no incremental elasticity would negatively impact fiscal year 2009 pro forma per share earnings by $0.27. However, should the advent of a 4GB model drive an incremental 1.5 million unit sales, it would offset this impact assuming Apple maintains 40 percent profit margins on the device, he said.

That's a big if, according to the analyst, who said his "main concern remains the potential macro impact on Apple's business given its high ASPs." Although recent MacBook refreshes helped drive some momentum last quarter, he remains "concerned that consumer spending will ultimately hit Apple’s high-end products more materially," potentially applying downward pressure to ASPs and gross margins.

For the just-ended December quarter, Um expects revenues to fall within the guided range of $9-$10 billion thanks to the MacBook refreshes and reseller holiday promotions. He sees gross margin coming in better than the 30-31 percent guidance due to better-than-expect commodity pricing, and estimates per-share earnings to be at or above the high end of the guided $1.06-$1.35 range.

In his report to clients, Um did not specify the breed of iPhone that's rumored to arrive with 4GB of storage, and there's an outside chance his findings could be related to persistent reports of an "iPhone nano," which was most recently rumored to be a device that may cater to international markets that demand certain concessions on Apple's part.

In December, there were also rumors that discount chain Wal-Mart would begin selling a 4GB iPhone at a greatly reduced price of $99. The reports did not materialize.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $110 price target on shares of Apple.

Separately on Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz lowered his price target on the Cupertino-based company to $102 from $104, citing weakening demand for the iPhone overseas.

"Our conversations with industry contacts suggest that U.S. demand pull for iPhone has held but that Europe has softened," he said.

Now, why on earth would Apple produce a 4gb iPhone. The cost savings cannot be that great. Its like Apple decided to produce a 60gb MacBook Pro to cut costs. It makes no sense. It makes sense to create a lesser model with 4gb, but not a straight up iPhone. 8gb is pushing the lowest acceptable storage limit as it is.

Now, why on earth would Apple produce a 4gb iPhone. The cost savings cannot be that great. Its like Apple decided to produce a 60gb MacBook Pro to cut costs. It makes no sense. It makes sense to create a lesser model with 4gb, but not a straight up iPhone. 8gb is pushing the lowest acceptable storage limit as it is.

I don't know what the material cost, mfg cost, support cost, and size costs are for an extra 4GB, but actually a 4GB iPhone could be really useful. These days I listen to Pandora or a streaming radio station almost as often as I listen to my own music, and I only carry around the last couple months of photos. Apps tend to take a few megabytes not gigabytes. This means that I can get by with a pretty minimal footprint and still have a really nifty device.

I don't know what the material cost, mfg cost, support cost, and size costs are for an extra 4GB, but actually a 4GB iPhone could be really useful. These days I listen to Pandora or a streaming radio station almost as often as I listen to my own music, and I only carry around the last couple months of photos. Apps tend to take a few megabytes not gigabytes. This means that I can get by with a pretty minimal footprint and still have a really nifty device.

I respectfully disagree. Not having enough space is a constant distraction and annoyance. People don't like wondering if they have enough space to do this or that.

I don't know why ANY of these guys don't talk about true cost of ownership of a 3G. I have 2-on a family plan-my cell bill is $130 before taxes which includes ONLY 200 text messages per line.

I really don't see how a $99 phone will spur that many more buyers. This $100 price reduction brings cost of ownership over a 2 year period for a single line plan from $2,000 to $1,900-hardly enough to spur some rush to ownership ($30/month data, $40/month voice, 200 SMS).

If Apple wants to sell a LOT of iPhones-someone there needs to get with AT$T and offer some sort of affordable data plan (like $15) coupled with some sort of affordable SMS plan (like $5 for unlimited). THAT would spur ownership. Total 2 year cost would still be $1,540-which is a lot-But nearly $500 less than now and would include unlimited SMS. Course, AT$T would never go for it-they are the M$ of the cell phone world and they just gotta have that extra $500 over two years...

At this point a lower priced handset is not going to bring any more people to the iPhone buffet. I think they have pretty much gotten all the people who like the iPhone and are willing to pay the subscription rates that go with it. The next bump in sales will only come with significantly lower subscription rates. Or perhaps even an iPhone with voice-only service plus wifi and GPS. I'd go for that one.

I respectfully disagree. Not having enough space is a constant distraction and annoyance. People don't like wondering if they have enough space to do this or that.

It's too big a step backwards for too little gain.

I have a 16GB iPhone and my wife have a 8GB iPhone. I have around 9GB of used space and my wife have 1.5GB used! We have exactly the same music and photo libraries. I keep all my music and half my photos in my iPhone but she only have few songs and few photos. She never exceeded the 2GB mark and therefore a $50 to $100 saving for 4GB would have been nice. Not everyone buys an iPhone for music. Most people want the internet, mail, and/or Apps.

At this point a lower priced handset is not going to bring any more people to the iPhone buffet. I think they have pretty much gotten all the people who like the iPhone and are willing to pay the subscription rates that go with it. The next bump in sales will only come with significantly lower subscription rates. Or perhaps even an iPhone with voice-only service plus wifi and GPS. I'd go for that one.

Which is another way of saying "the smartphone segment has seen all the growth it's going to, since carriers charge a lot for smartphone data plans."

People really, really need to get off this "iPhone rates are outrageous" thing. If you have a problem with prevailing data costs, fine. But it's not unique to the iPhone.

They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.

I have a 16GB iPhone and my wife have a 8GB iPhone. I have around 9GB of used space and my wife have 1.5GB used! We have exactly the same music and photo libraries. I keep all my music and half my photos in my iPhone but she only have few songs and few photos. She never exceeded the 2GB mark and therefore a $50 to $100 saving for 4GB would have been nice. Not everyone buys an iPhone for music. Most people want the internet, mail, and/or Apps.

So you are expecting a $100 difference in cost to you for a capacity increase that MIGHT cost Apple $2.50? This is the problem I see with this 4gb iPhone argument, it just isn't going to impact price in a significant way and in any event you are shooting at a moving target when it comes to flash prices.

The only possible way I could see this happening is if AT&T and Apple wanted a cheap device for the pay as you go market that doesn't seriously encroach on iPhone's feature set. The rumored Nano could be a sign of such a device. That is a cell phone targetted at an entirely different marketing program. Nano would then be a device specifically engineered not to appeal to current iPhone buyers, probably by supporting 2 G only.

In any event the number one issue is they falling price of flash in general. In the short term I expect Apple will simply bump up baseline capacity in the iPhone's, it just doesn't make sense to go backwards in most cases. The exception here is if Apple has an improved iPhone in the wings and this 4GB would then become the low end iPhone. For a new high end iPhone it should be possible for Apple to cram a lot of stuff into a new iPhone considering some of the technologybreleases I've seen. This new iPhone would be easily differentiated from the current model. Such a phone could be improved all around from processor core to camera to wifi hardware and everything else. This would make the 4GB iPhone the poo' mans iPhone.

I respectfully disagree. Not having enough space is a constant distraction and annoyance. People don't like wondering if they have enough space to do this or that.

It's too big a step backwards for too little gain.

I know where you're at here. I stood in line at launch, the store sold out of 16GB phones so I picked up an 8GB instead. My old BlackBerry's screen was broken for about two months at that point and I just desperately wanted a phone. So, I settled. Whoops!

I have a 16GB iPhone and my wife have a 8GB iPhone. I have around 9GB of used space and my wife have 1.5GB used! We have exactly the same music and photo libraries. I keep all my music and half my photos in my iPhone but she only have few songs and few photos. She never exceeded the 2GB mark and therefore a $50 to $100 saving for 4GB would have been nice. Not everyone buys an iPhone for music. Most people want the internet, mail, and/or Apps.

That's why I RESPECTFULLY disagree. But even if you don't use the space on a regular basis it's nice to have on a ten hour flight, or when you need a portable hard drive in a jam, or whatever.

And back to an earlier point made above: This does virtually NOTHING for total cost of ownership. $100 off a two year contract - what's the point?

I admit I'm surprised at how many people disagree with me. But I still think a size as small as 4GB would be more of a deterrent than a boon.

Which is another way of saying "the smartphone segment has seen all the growth it's going to, since carriers charge a lot for smartphone data plans."

People really, really need to get off this "iPhone rates are outrageous" thing. If you have a problem with prevailing data costs, fine. But it's not unique to the iPhone.

I'm glad someone said something so I wouldn't have to.

If anything all the complaints about how expensive the iPhone data plan is makes you realize that the iPhone is exposing smartphones to people that have never looked into them and their offered plans before, which can only make smartphone marketshare rise not flatten out.

When a company stops chasing profit and start chasing the betterment of their products, services, workforce, and customers, that will be the most valuable company in the world.

I don't know why ANY of these guys don't talk about true cost of ownership of a 3G. I have 2-on a family plan-my cell bill is $130 before taxes which includes ONLY 200 text messages per line.

I really don't see how a $99 phone will spur that many more buyers. This $100 price reduction brings cost of ownership over a 2 year period for a single line plan from $2,000 to $1,900-hardly enough to spur some rush to ownership ($30/month data, $40/month voice, 200 SMS).

If Apple wants to sell a LOT of iPhones-someone there needs to get with AT$T and offer some sort of affordable data plan (like $15) coupled with some sort of affordable SMS plan (like $5 for unlimited). THAT would spur ownership. Total 2 year cost would still be $1,540-which is a lot-But nearly $500 less than now and would include unlimited SMS. Course, AT$T would never go for it-they are the M$ of the cell phone world and they just gotta have that extra $500 over two years...

People really, really need to get off this "iPhone rates are outrageous" thing. If you have a problem with prevailing data costs, fine. But it's not unique to the iPhone.

It is unfortunate that data is so expensive. I remember racking up hundreds of dollars a month on Compuserve in the early days before the Internet was widely available. Now that kind of service is $10. At some point I would love to see free, city wide, secure, wifi instead. Of course I would settle for just more bike lanes but I'm probably not going to get that either, especially in this economy.

I don't know why ANY of these guys don't talk about true cost of ownership of a 3G. I have 2-on a family plan-my cell bill is $130 before taxes which includes ONLY 200 text messages per line.

I really don't see how a $99 phone will spur that many more buyers. This $100 price reduction brings cost of ownership over a 2 year period for a single line plan from $2,000 to $1,900-hardly enough to spur some rush to ownership ($30/month data, $40/month voice, 200 SMS).

If Apple wants to sell a LOT of iPhones-someone there needs to get with AT$T and offer some sort of affordable data plan (like $15) coupled with some sort of affordable SMS plan (like $5 for unlimited). THAT would spur ownership. Total 2 year cost would still be $1,540-which is a lot-But nearly $500 less than now and would include unlimited SMS. Course, AT$T would never go for it-they are the M$ of the cell phone world and they just gotta have that extra $500 over two years...

Perhaps if you were reaping all the benefits of AT&T's profits, you'd be singing a different tune. Successfully businesses price commodities to what customers are willing to pay. If the price is too high, demand decreases, and prices (profit margins) must decrease with demand to stimulate growth.

People are willing to pay current prices for the current services. Maybe when current data plan pricing has saturated the market, the big telcos will decrease the price to stimulate more market growth.

I wish that was soon, but I highly HIGHLY doubt it.

When a company stops chasing profit and start chasing the betterment of their products, services, workforce, and customers, that will be the most valuable company in the world.

I know several people who don't use their iPhone for music and/or video. If you're only using the iPhone as a phone, 4GB is plenty.

That's not the concern. I doubt Apple saves much money by dropping in a 4GB chip rather than an 8GB chip, which is the very crux of the problem with asking for an 4GB unit. Do you know how little flash memory costs these days? For example, a high quality SDHC 8GB card costs only $6 more than a 4GB card, same brand, same high speed. I wouldn't be surprised to see 8GB cards as cereal box prizes later this year.

It might even cost Apple more than they are saving by adding a SKU and putting it into the distribution chain, more complexity, tracking more inventory and so on. For what? Apple's costs won't go down and and people think they're going to convince Apple to give up $50-$100 of profit? Apple is used to selling lower volume products to get a higher margin, like with their Macs, even if sales did go down, I don't think they will feel they have to cut their prices so much just to keep the same flow of customers.

There is absolutely no burden to having too much space (too much space is often better than not enough space), and no benefit to Apple for providing one with less space at a lower price. So why why all this clamor? I just don't see how the numbers could add up to be a win for Apple and a win for customers.

I could be wrong, but if I am wrong, I would expect that there are externalities that just aren't accounted for in this discussion.

So you are expecting a $100 difference in cost to you for a capacity increase that MIGHT cost Apple $2.50? This is the problem I see with this 4gb iPhone argument, it just isn't going to impact price in a significant way and in any event you are shooting at a moving target when it comes to flash prices.

Dave

Perfect, and exactly right.
A 4gb phone would save Apple almost nothing and therefore change the pricing almost nothing.

This stuff started a year ago, and the people carrying it forward are dumber'n a bag a hammers.

If you follow Apple's progression at all, you know the next thing coming is a 32gb phone.
More capacity, not less.

I have a 16GB iPhone and my wife have a 8GB iPhone. I have around 9GB of used space and my wife have 1.5GB used! We have exactly the same music and photo libraries. I keep all my music and half my photos in my iPhone but she only have few songs and few photos. She never exceeded the 2GB mark and therefore a $50 to $100 saving for 4GB would have been nice. Not everyone buys an iPhone for music. Most people want the internet, mail, and/or Apps.

Since no one bought the 4GB phone when it was available, Apple dropped it. People also use the iPhone for VIDEO, which does occupy a lot of space. You are right, not everyone buys an iPhone for music, they use it for music, video, photos, internet, mail, and a phone. The 4GB phone (actually formatted to 3.7 GB) was a joke. It is great being able to watch part of a movie or a TV show while waiting somewhere...airport, doctor's office, auto mechanic. Makes the time go by quickly. I have a selection of music, video, photos, and apps and my 16 GB phone is full.

Show me a reasonably featured iphone plan for ~$50/mo and I'll show you your millions of new subscribers.

I currently pay $60/month for my iPhone (16 GB Original), and that's only $20 more than what I was paying before with my Moto Razr. I have plenty of minutes for my use, with rollover, and data and text messaging. I do think there should be an option for 3G use, and for those that don't want it, can pay the original $20 data plan with Edge only.

AT&T wants a cheaper iphone for their data plan, NOW lets talk margin, if ATT is saying to apple we'll pay $$$so we can grow this data plan. but what ATT may REALLY want is that
2 YEAR CONTRACT......as this market gets mature, then its not the phone cost that matters at all as many have said.....this happened some time ago when the iphone was rumored, verizon et all were pushing lower cost 2 YEAR AND SOME 3 YEAR CONTRACTS to lock in the customer
this also doesn't follow the ipod path, different form factors, more capability like
voice dialing
cut paste
tethering
BT with keyboards and other BT expansion

but data rates need to come down (that is the limiting cost for many) , but where is the competitive pressure to do so at least in the USA

i could see this if another bango hot iphone upgrade came in june and then you have the stairstep function, and less reliance on the form factor.

maybe SJ can't make a funtional "value" to customer "nano" maybe the iphone is ideal in size.
i don't think so, if you had a basic ipod nano with, minimal phone capablility, texting, (wifi +/- different models) wifi, and some storage, it could be 2g (and bulk up the 2g network....not) then i could see a place for a 4gb 2g wifi iphone. work that click wheel like these teens work the number pad, hey it would be a new "thing". hey you could make the ipod nano screen with a click go to dialer...hmmm now that would be sweet.

what market are they going after with this anyway, if data plans stay as is??

Ok, companies like Apple buy large quantities of components to save on cost. So, you get 8gb & 16gb nanos, iPhones and iPod touches. There is also a 32gb touch which uses 2 16gb flash chips. Nowhere in there are 4gb chips. This makes a 4gb iPhone incredibly unlikely. As a financial guy he should know this. What a tool.

So you are expecting a $100 difference in cost to you for a capacity increase that MIGHT cost Apple $2.50? This is the problem I see with this 4gb iPhone argument, it just isn't going to impact price in a significant way and in any event you are shooting at a moving target when it comes to flash prices.

The only possible way I could see this happening is if AT&T and Apple wanted a cheap device for the pay as you go market that doesn't seriously encroach on iPhone's feature set. The rumored Nano could be a sign of such a device. That is a cell phone targetted at an entirely different marketing program. Nano would then be a device specifically engineered not to appeal to current iPhone buyers, probably by supporting 2 G only.

In any event the number one issue is they falling price of flash in general. In the short term I expect Apple will simply bump up baseline capacity in the iPhone's, it just doesn't make sense to go backwards in most cases. The exception here is if Apple has an improved iPhone in the wings and this 4GB would then become the low end iPhone. For a new high end iPhone it should be possible for Apple to cram a lot of stuff into a new iPhone considering some of the technologybreleases I've seen. This new iPhone would be easily differentiated from the current model. Such a phone could be improved all around from processor core to camera to wifi hardware and everything else. This would make the 4GB iPhone the poo' mans iPhone.

Dave

When Apple released the iPhone the 4GB version cost for Apple was $20 less than the 8GB but they still charged $100 for the upgrade. I agree it may not cost them much but for the person who is going to buy an iPhone the $100 is half $200 regardless of the total cost. In my opinion, they are better off lowering the price of the 8GB when they release the 32GB version instead of releasing a 4GB iPhone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by walshbj

That's why I RESPECTFULLY disagree. But even if you don't use the space on a regular basis it's nice to have on a ten hour flight, or when you need a portable hard drive in a jam, or whatever.

And back to an earlier point made above: This does virtually NOTHING for total cost of ownership. $100 off a two year contract - what's the point?

I admit I'm surprised at how many people disagree with me. But I still think a size as small as 4GB would be more of a deterrent than a boon.

Now, yes it might be but 6 months ago prices were not that low. When I bought my iPhone my local Apple store ran out of 8GB iPhones so I bought the 16GB instead.

Why do you want that $3000 bonus? it is nothing compared to what you make in your life time!!

$100 might not sound much but you can pay your first month cell phone bill with it, buy two iPods shuffle, fill your car with gas at least twice, or .... etc. For some people $100 is much (even for some of those who bought iPhones). I know many students in our university campus who have iPhones and take loans to pay for tuition and books.

I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of disagreeing with you. I was just stating my point of view, a lower price iPhone will increase sales.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hillstones

Since no one bought the 4GB phone when it was available, Apple dropped it. People also use the iPhone for VIDEO, which does occupy a lot of space. You are right, not everyone buys an iPhone for music, they use it for music, video, photos, internet, mail, and a phone. The 4GB phone (actually formatted to 3.7 GB) was a joke. It is great being able to watch part of a movie or a TV show while waiting somewhere...airport, doctor's office, auto mechanic. Makes the time go by quickly. I have a selection of music, video, photos, and apps and my 16 GB phone is full.

The reason no one bought the 4GB iPhone because they were sold for $499 and the 8GB were sold for $599. If I am going to shell out $500 why not get double the capacity for %20 more?! this is how people think when they want to buy something (initial cost is the most important factor). The 3G and 1st gen iPhone cost almost the same over the 2 years contract but 3G sold in 3 months what the 1st generation sold in a year (and it was not because 3G or GPS. It was because of the lower initial buying cost).

If anything all the complaints about how expensive the iPhone data plan is makes you realize that the iPhone is exposing smartphones to people that have never looked into them and their offered plans before, which can only make smartphone marketshare rise not flatten out.

Exactly. People who were content with "just a phone" have discovered that can use and enjoy an iPhone, but they want to keep paying "just a phone" rates.

Before the iPhone, the only people dealing with smart phones kind of knew what they were getting into and were willing to pony up for the functionality.

They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.

I doubt Apple saves much money by dropping in a 4GB chip rather than an 8GB chip, which is the very crux of the problem with asking for an 4GB unit. Do you know how little flash memory costs these days? For example, a high quality SDHC 8GB card costs only $6 more than a 4GB card, same brand, same high speed. I wouldn't be surprised to see 8GB cards as cereal box prizes later this year.

And yet the 16GB model is $100 more expensive on AT&T. 4GB would allow Apple to release an iPhone at a lower price point whilst still retaining the perceived (not actual) value of the 8GB model.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hillstones

Then why did they waste their money on an iPhone if they are only using it as a phone? They are really missing out on the iPhone's full capability.

Some people like using a phone with a big screen and nice UI. Why should they be obliged to use every feature on a device?

There is no way Apple is coming with a 4 GB nano. This would blow when it comes to the Apple App store. Once Apple has 16 GB as the standard, then maybe a 8gb for a nano. Apps is one of the leading reasons people will buy one in the first place for consumer level. 4 gb will not get it done unless it was removable.

How is this silly meme still alive? The typical app is about the size of a typical music file. It takes a lot of apps to make a noticeable dent in usable space.

Maybe, but if you use your phone like I assume most folks do-- with a lot of music, a fair number of pictures, and some video, that plus apps chews through 4 GB pretty quick.

Not unusable, by any means, but I can't remember a time Apple offered any machine with less stock memory than the lowest current model, just to hit a price point.

Make the existing middle the new low end when you add a new model, and drop the old lower end completely, yes. Add a new model at the same price as the old model and drop the price on the old model, yes.

But not go back a generation, spec wise, to create a new low end.

They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.