A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned.

Two administration officials described the assessment but declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

The officials emphasized that nothing is certain, but there have been several worrying signs in the past three to four days.

“This has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one official said.

The buildup is seen to be reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

U.S. military and intelligence officials have briefed Congress on the assessment.

As a result, Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee late Wednesday sent a classified letter to the White House expressing concern about unfolding developments.

An unclassified version obtained by CNN said committee members feel “urgency and alarm, based on new information in the committee’s possession.”

The committee said there was “deep apprehension that Moscow may invade eastern and southern Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria and also seek land grabs in the Baltics.”

Transdniestria is a separatist region of Moldova.

Committee members noted that Gen. Philip Breedlove, head of the U.S. European Command and NATO military chief, noted the Russians had sufficient forces to make moves into those areas.

American officials believe the more than 30,000 Russian forces on the border with Ukraine, combined with additional Russian forces placed on alert and mobilized to move, give Russian President Vladimir Putin the ability to rapidly move into Ukraine without the United States being able to predict it when it happens.

The assessment makes several new points including:

Troops on Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine – which exceed 30,000 - are “significantly more” than what is needed for the “exercises” Russia says it has been conducting, and there is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases.

The troops on the border with Ukraine include large numbers of
“motorized” units that can quickly move. Additional special forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units that would be needed appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia.

There is additional intelligence that even more Russian forces are “reinforcing” the border region, according to both officials. All of the troops are positioned for potential military action.

Russian troops already on the border region include air defense artillery and wheeled vehicles.

The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea.

The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in order to establish land access into Crimea. Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod, according to U.S. intelligence information.

This is a contradicting statement. So did G. W. Bush let them have "Georgia" or did he spend lives defending it? In reality neither is true as Russians occupied small piece of land called South Ossetia, and Georgia proper remains an independent country. Speaking of defending other countries, so I guess you'd be against any American involvement in fight against Hitler in WWII. BTW, I'm not GOP, neither.

Putin's rating is the highest but Obama's rating is the lowest now. I think US shouldn't have supported the coup and illegal regime in Kiev but should have acknowledged the referendum in Crimea. It's a major mistake to regard Russia as an enemy.

No! That is what Lord Chamberlain had said when he handed Czechoslovakia to Hitler! And this was what the West was advising Poland when Hitler was threatening to take Ganzig! The weakness of the West convinced Hitler that he will get away with World War II! Putin must be brought to size!

Thankfully, in a shooting war, Russia is no match for the US or NATO... When Russia invaded Georgia they left a trail of broken down vehicles from Moscow all the way to Georgia... they tried to keep it out of the news but I remember the reports... their military is not exactly in tip top condition... Putin may be doing us a favor though, if he strikes now and he is beaten back it could keep Russia from getting strong enough to be a threat in the future.

Too expensive? We conducted both and are still the largest economy in the world. We are by far the largest economy in the world despite the recession despite the Global war on terrorism... The US's economy is worth 16.2 Trillion per year... The next largest is China at 9 Trillion... for comparison, Russia's economy is 2.2 Trillion annually... We could afford it.... Russia cannot, especially when we cut you off from the worlds economy. you need to understand Alexander, The US is more technically advanced, Has a better and stronger military and a bigger and stronger economy... This would not be a fight you could win.

March 27, 2014 at 1:20 pm |

om

Nuclear ICBM with MIRV....the game equalizer

March 27, 2014 at 1:29 pm |

Alexander Soldatkichev

The Most Expensive War in World History: Costs of Iraq, Afghanistan wars could rise to $6 trillion
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-most-expensive-war-in-world-history-costs-of-iraq-afghanistan-wars-could-rise-to-6-trillion/5329432
I am sure you could afford it, but I don't think you want it. USA lost war in Vietnam although you was much stronger.
And I am not sure you win in Iraq or Afghanistan.

March 27, 2014 at 1:32 pm |

Clinton

Alexander – They may have been expensive wars but again WE can afford them and we achieved our main goals in both wars, In Iraq we removed Saddam Hussein from power and in Afghanistan we removed the Taliban from power. We stayed and spent all that money because we wanted to allow Governments to form in those countries that could combat terrorism in the region for us and withstand attacks from those terrorists. As for Vietnam, we didn't so much lose as decide to leave due to a lack of support for the war back home, in military terms the US killed 10 enemy soldiers for every 1 US serviceman. It was not a military defeat, if we were engaged in a conflict with the Soviet Uniion and the US population supported it, we would not lose.

March 27, 2014 at 1:44 pm |

Jerrod Sweet

Thats all great, but what is the US doing about all of this? Let me answer (Nothing) and we will continue to do nothing. Shame on this administrations foreign policy. "Lets wait and see what happens" does not work.

So you, like the rest of the Teaturds want to put U.S. lives in harms way for another nation??? Why dont YOU enlist and risk YOUR life?

March 27, 2014 at 1:57 pm |

Nick

It is always the folks at home on their couch, or politicians sitting at the desk that are so quick to scream for war and action. When you have no idea the actual costs of war, loss of life, time away from family, PTSD, loss of jobs... so much more than mere finances. Stop letting movies and video games glorify war as if it is fun and exciting. IT ISNT, and until you go YOU WILL NEVER KNOW! Besides all of that, why should we get involved in another conflict?! World opinion of America is always low when we are "putting our nose in other peoples business"; "world police" but the moment you guys get bored of not seeing it on the news, or your nation is threatened, the world screams, "why isn't America doing anything?!" Obama is doing it right, Europe/NATO better get off their asses and prepare to defend their land and neighbors... I don't feel like we should send our citizens and troops in as front liners in any more conflicts unless genocide and war crimes are at stake... we take the lead, and my brothers and sisters die only to be ostracized when we return home....

March 27, 2014 at 2:20 pm |

Paul P. Valtos

Well, as I recommended. We drop all equipment that we are removing from Iraq and Afghanistan and deposit it in Poland which borders the Ukraine. Let the Poles take the initiative (who really love Russia) to allow Ukrainian military to come over the border and train on our machines whether it be tanks, morters, Humvees with ammunition. The Poles would be jiustified in taking this equipment to defend itself from the Russians if they decide to invade the Ukraine.The Russians can't have any complaints with their imperialist ambitions.In reality Poland belonged to them before the breakup of the Soviet Union. That's Putin's pitch anyway.

March 27, 2014 at 2:53 pm |

Kutd Fmjhfd

Americas face (actual) has changed roughly 2 times since Chernobal melt-down guess where those faces came from...

Iam the legitimate Prezident of Ukraine . I do not recognaize the power of fascists "Maidan".Terror against the population of Ukraine requires protection of their raights of any force.Russia has the right to protect its citizens and related Russian people.On Ukraine war-wounded and killed more than 10,000 people for 100 days .This must be stopped!

Unless NATO steps-in and puts equipment and military advisors into Ukraine immediately, Putin will continue on his path to grabbing the land of Ukraine and other sovereign nations along Russia's borders. If he is not confronted with a military presence of potential resistance he is going to push forward regardless of what the rest of the world thinks. After Obama once again took a military solution off the table again yesterday in his speech from Brussels, Putin thinks he can do what he wants. The time for NATO to act is today.

Glen, unfortunately I think the world has not learned it's lesson from the last time they faced a dictator with world domination on his mind. I feel for the Russian people, much like the German population in WW2 I fear the Russian people have no idea that they are the bad guys in this... If they don't wise up fast... it will be the stars and stripes waiving over a smoking ruin that was once Moscow.

Alexander – For every Nuke Russia points at the US we can point 10 back... no we are not afraid of Russian Nukes, If you were dumb enough to use them it wouldn't be 24 hours before nothing in Russia existed ever again.

March 27, 2014 at 12:21 pm |

Alexander Soldatkichev

Yes, we have Nukes to destroy USA just 5 times, but you have Nukes to destroy us 50 times. Hope you are happy about this mind. But why don't you afraid it? Are you immortal?

The spin on this is out of control. I'm a proud American, but there are so many misguided and outright idiotic Team America comments here, it's almost scary. Russia is protecting its territorial interests just as the U.S, would if San Diego was somehow a de facto part of Mexico following a WWII settlement where most of the population was still U.S. citizens who considered themselves Americans, and Mexico just went through a covertly financed coup sponsored in part by the Chinese, to install a radically pro China government, now actively meeting with China and overtly receiving massive amounts of funding to secure its interests in the region. What exactly do you imagine the U.S. response would be and should be in this situation to protect its interests, its citizens, and its Naval assets using the port? And Putin is the "evil one" ?!? What a joke. We should be taking a long hard look at the CIA playing its dirty regime destabilization games (once again) and the consequences it has brought to the region in question.

March 27, 2014 at 12:29 pm |

Clinton

Alexander – I've been to war, I fought Al Quaida in Iraq, i'm not afraid of Russia, I'm not afraid of Russian's. Russia is a bully, plain and simple, you think you can dominate small country's with weak Governments and take their land... but there's one thing we've learned from history, bullies may get away with a few cheap shots, but in the end, bullies are stupid and you can outthink them and defeat them. Believe me when I say this, Russia will PAY for invading and Annexing Crimea. The only question is whether or not the Russian population is smart enough to stop Putin before he costs your country EVERYTHING.

March 27, 2014 at 12:37 pm |

Med

to arriesgadoclothing. You are not right. Crimea isn't Russia, there is russian and ukrainan majority because of the genocide' where most of crimean tatars were killed or deported before WWII. Same goes for Baltic states where peoples where killed and places then colonized by russians after WWII. Are these russian territories???
Thru the history russians used tactic to burn and colonize, look how many nations have been killed off earth by russians (30+).

March 27, 2014 at 12:52 pm |

Clinton

arriesgadoclothing – That's a terrible analogy, that's not even close to what happened here either. The CIA didn't sponsor an overthrow of the Ukrainian Government, apparently you're too thick headed to understand this but the US isn't behind every political event in the world. Ukrainians are split. Some are pro Russian, some are Pro Europe. The catalyst of this event was the Pro Russian former President of the Ukraine was considering an economic package with the EU he was about to sign the thing when Russia stepped in and pressured him to sign a treaty with Russia instead. The population of Ukraine didn't like this, granted many of them are pro Russian but many more are not. The Ukrainian people were tired of their politicians being run by Moscow, they wanted a change and they decided to protest, the protests were met with violence by the Government and the population decided to overthrow the Government. It's not about the US, it's not about the EU, the Ukrainian people were tired of being controlled by Russia and did something about it. The power vacuum that ensued allowed Putin to make his move while Ukraine was still weak and unable to respond to a military threat... Putin knew he wasn't going to get his way with Ukraine so he seized the most valuable piece of the Ukraine to him, the Crimea, where his only warm water fleet is stationed. This is nothing more than a bully annexing territory while his neighbor is in strife... so your analysis is crap. A more accurate analysis would be if Mexico had a revolution and we stole their territory along our border without provocation... and we haven't done that despite the fact that Mexico is much weaker than us and it would be easy to do.

March 27, 2014 at 12:53 pm |

Alexander Soldatkichev

I was not in war, but I was studied how to launch a Nukes. This war will take less than a hour. After that whole world will be destroyed. I remember what a disaster was 9.11 for USA, also just 3.000 was killed. Until there is a chance 1 Nuke can reach USA, nobody will risk it.
Yes, you can win the second Cold War. But "it will be the stars and stripes waiving over a smoking ruin that was once Moscow" – just in your fantasies.

March 27, 2014 at 12:53 pm |

Serge

to Clinton with regard to his words that Us is not involved in Ukrainian overthrough. I hope this not blocked for you.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbOwfeoDX2o
and another one pretty interesting
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-5Px_dRO2rs

Imaging Sergey Lavrov with a bakery goods while occupying Wall Street. Funny right? And with right decissions how to resolve the matter 🙂

COMMUNISTS COME AND COMUNISTS GO BUT COMMUNISTS NEVER CHANGE. RUSSIA IS NOT A REAL COUNTRY JUST LIKE THE SOVIET UNION IS NOT A REAL COUNTRY THE USSR TAKES THE EAST OF THIS AND THE EAST OF THAT YET ITS NORTH AND SOUTH BY COMPASS HEADING THE CCCP IS REAL AS RUSSIA IS NOT

What would USA do if Russia brought in violent proxy terrorists and installed a coup president in Mexico? I do not blame Russia if it takes control of all of Ukraine. USA wouldn't lose time in taking control of Mexico.

Juliano, the problem is, the US did not hire a terrorist group to overthrow the Ukrainian Govt. The US doesn't have to make moves like that. Why do fools like you always make conclusions that the US must be behind every event in the world? The Ukrainian people are split, they are a mix of ethnic Russians and others some with loyalty to Russia and others who are not. According to polls they are close to 50/50. Besides Western Europe has far more to gain from an overthrow of the former pro-Russian regime in Ukraine than the US does.. the US doesn't benefit at all from this. Maybe you should get a clue about the political and ideological landscape of the world before making ignorant comments about the US.

what a stupid comment, the US regime does not hire gangsters for the dirty work, they are in and aroung the white house

March 27, 2014 at 2:02 pm |

PoliticiansRcrooks

First Suddentenland then Poland, First Crimea then Ukraine, Hitlers always stay true to form. Evil incarnate is alive and well and the little dictator has shown his true colors. No trade with the EU the EU and USA pressure China what's left for Russia to trade with ? North Korea? G20 to G19 next.............the Russian people deserve better than this little power hungry midget.

It's true... unfortunately not many people read and learn from history but your analysis is spot on, everything we know of dictators from history tells us the next move by Putin is to invade and conquer more former soviet land. for those of us that have studied history we all know this is a story already written and set to play out again. This move in the Crimea is directly out of Hitlers playbook.. The only thing that can stop this unfortunate chain of events from spiraling down is the Russian population... and they appear to be as willfully ignorant as the German population before WW2.

It is a provocation.
Russia is not going to invade these territories.
Ukranians are simply trying to gain more profit out of this situation.
They need more money and help as their country is almost a bankrupt. They did not manage to succed being independent. Actually during Soviet times they got used to help and money coming from Russia. Being independent they didn't work well, their leaders stole almost everything (Russia is not guiltyof this).
Now they ask and demand help and money under the pretext of being abused ans so on. Yes, they need help but the reason is that they failed to govern their country.
I hope EU and the USA will help them financially (not military as Russians actually don't want wars).
The problem is that in my opinion Ukranians should be taught to be responsible for their own life ( I hope that Europeans will do it).

The West needs to ask Saudi Arabia to drop oil prices.
Saudis did it when Soviets invaded Afganistan in 1979, which lead to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
as proposed at
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/mar/26/west-wants-hurt-putin-could-saudi-arabia-dirty-work

the US and EU should freeze new loans by the West's banks to Russian companies. This will not hurt the West's economies.
But this would force the Russian government give loans to the Russian companies to save them afloat, while leaving Putin with less money for social spending – actual 'buying' Russian people's love.
In some time Russians themselves will 'ask' Putin to go.

Do you know how stupid you sound? The imperialist US? I'm sorry, we aren't out annexing new territory, in fact, we haven't taken any land from ANY foreign Government since WW2. Russia on the other hand just STOLE land from another sovereign country. That' the very definition of Imperialism you dumb rusky.

March 27, 2014 at 11:49 am |

worldmama

I live in Moscow and I am foreigner.I see comments on western media and after two weeks of so called crimea invasion,reports pouring and keeps the temp that Russia is going to INVADE UKRAINE!
When USA invaded IRAQ,LIBYA and mercilessly killed the presidents, When they searched one of the latin American countries Presidents plane was grounded in one of EU countries and searched for some "wanted' person... there were no comments...The fact is, Soviet Union lost 26 million lives during WWII ,not USA and not UK..and there is no fear among Russians to face any economic,or any kind of isolation.Because, historically and traditionally they are equipped any day.unlike the fearsome western powers..
when you point one finger at some one, 4 fingers are pointing back at you..I really wish they stop fooling common people trying to make information war and trying to escalate and make gains...why not willingly accept defeat??

What defeat, you mean Ukraine's loss of territory due to foreign invasion? No better make Russia pay dealry by isolation, economic, diplomatic, political and social isolation. Let them mingle with the other Asians.

I'm sorry, but your reply is to ignorant and just dumb to even provide a legitimate reply to. I mean what the hell are you talking about? What does the millions of lives lost in WWII due to your corrupt leader, Stalin, have anything to do with your current corrupt leader, Putin??? Just go back home and shutup!!!

A am from Russia and I am russian. Brother of my grandmother was Hero of WWII, he was incinerated in T-34 tank with other 3 man.
Now I see that former left. colonel of KGB starts to act as Hitler.
I do understand that economic sanctions will punish simple people of Russia but it will allow many russian to become sober and finally to liberate our world from Putin, Lukashenko (Belorussia), Assad

If Russia was considering invasion there is nothing that will stop them now since the West in their infinite wisdom decided to isolate them. Think about it, EU which is comprised of 28 countries, some which are in deep financial trouble and very little common agreement is trying to isolate, yea I know the good old USA is also on this bandwagon, Russia. There are over 230 counties in the world. Although EU and USA would like to think they are the world they are only a small part. Who will be hurt more: Russia or EU and now Ukraine since there is no discussion on future decisions. FYI until 1954 Crimea was always Russian and it may still be part of the Ukraine if the legally elected government was not overthrown and the rebels moving away from Russia to the EU. They brought this on themselves. Had this been done in a democrat way: voting, then we probably would not be at this point.

Yes, had it been done in a democratic way that didn't involve thousands of Russian soldiers in Crimea, and watching the elections with guns drawn then this absolutely wouldn't have happened. Voter fraud!!!!

NATO & Washington want a war. Simple as that. So they create a perceived threat so that people/public respond to the perceived threat, rather than the true threat facing them, being Washington wanting to surround Russia with NATO bases and take the warm water port that is leased to Russia by Ukraine. That's why Yats was put in by Victoria Nuland and Geoff Pyatt in the hope that he would cease the lease to Russia and lease it to America.

IF (remember this is CNN) Russia are amassing troops its purely as a defensive position because they cannot trust Washington.

Yes, you clearly are a military advistor. Of course you must be write, Washington must want a war. Because we are clearly the country with over 30 thousand troops on the border of another country with the intent to invade. Wait, did we finally decide to invade Mexico and stop all the drug cartels??? Oh no, I must have been talking about the over 30 thousand Russian troops ready to invade a FREE country (not like Russia) known as the Ukraine.

US Intelligence agencies and the Pentagon also say that global warming is a threat to US National Security. Do you believe them?

March 27, 2014 at 11:56 am |

Sceptical

Just for once, think. Why would NATO be interested in Sevastopol? They already have ports in Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey so why lock additional ships in the Black Sea? Why make the ships vulnerable to air attack from Russia. NATO has no interest whatsoever in Crimea. Russian paranoia.

Friend of humanity, don't make me laugh. Your Russians think you hold all the cards, theatening nuclear war. Well idiots, we have nuclear bombs to and I assure you we will all be dead for many many years before any kind of war like that happens. Neither the Russian government or my USA government has the balls to use nuclear war you idiot. Those are for scare tactics and scare tactics alone. War now a days is waged by isolation and sanctions, and we will win while you stupidly invade. Countries will align and you will be isolated in the world picture.

I just following your comments from the start of this thread....Well, you are very enthusiastic in saying so... so whats your point??. Do you mean US has won or lost in this cold war kind of politics. I think I will leave it to you !!. Many analysts (even US analysts knows the answer and the people outside of US surely did knows who is the true leader. Coming to the isolation issue: hahah I am kind of feeling like you just graduated may be!, not seeing the whole picture of it. DO you think all G7 members met and took a picture and then showing the world that Russia is isolated!!??. I am not sure, who is the one always coming out in press and saying "there wil be some costs". If you can guess so..why it is like this (don't again think because u think u r the super power, thatswhy Obama came so many times on press!!, )?. Secondly, sanctions......that you as common person don't understand it. If you listen to some of financial analysts, they will tell you more deeper, that US is creating a platform to push all the trading countries to shift to chinese RMB as trading currency atleast 50-60% of their trade in coming years, and be careful its at fast pace. Its already happening in UK, Australia, Russia and Brazil and some african countries. So now you can access how far sanctions can be game tool in future!!!. In other words, sanctions can be negative impact to Russia for the moment , but in long term its very good opportunity for them to shift their trade to china/asia. And I can see your frustration that russia has slapped back at US more than what US slapped on Russia's face in the Ukraine episode!!!. And much more, you will see how the Ukraine govt will turn to Russia both politically and economically in coming 3-5 years. Stay tune the game. Once more, I am not support of Russia, but somehow we are the ones started this game, and i think we gonna feel the heat very soon!!!.

March 27, 2014 at 11:40 am |

M

Somehow I think NONE of you know history, or the Bible, at that. Yeah, you can laugh, but when Russia does everything it want's to do, I bet it'll want even more. You've heard of the massive oil deposits off the shores of Israel? Well, Russia will make an alliance with Israel's enemies, and will try to destroy Israel, maybe along with the nations that they made an 'alliance' with. But when the whole army is destroyed, almost every single one of you Russians will be absolutely shamed, along with most of people in the nations that tried to wipe out Israel.

The fact that that US Intelligence says an invasion is likely should mean nothing to conservatives. All 16 US Intelligence agencies, plus the Pentagon, have testified that global warming is a threat to US national security and conservatives ignore their warning. They say that these people sit around thinking up "what if" scenarios" and are not credible.

In 1981, Ronald Reagan was against the Trans-Siberian pipeline which would give Russia economic power. We are seeing this now because Europe depends on Russia for resources. He also said that Russia never wanted to be a part of our summit. They are just power-hungry. The problem is that Putin knows that Nobama is a coward and is more concerned with gay athletes, NCAA brackets, and My Brother's Keeper so he's doing whatever he wants to do. Putin would never get away with this if Reagan was still around.

Lets see, he got away with it when Bush was in office but no one seems to remember that. So whats the difference now? Or your hatred for our current president have you so blinded that you can't accept the fact does not matter who is in office things can happen when we play by different play books.

It absolutely disgusts me to no end that NATO has not deployed significant air power to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves against this evil predator. We outspend Russia 10-to-1 on defense each year. Simply putting a couple of US aircraft carrier battle groups on patrol in the Black Sea would be enough to keep Putin on his side of the border. Unfortunately, we are being led by a pack of weak-kneed fools.

There would be no victory over Nazi Germany, if not a sacrifice of Ukrainian and Belarus people (6,850,000 and 2,290,000 people dead accordingly). Also, the amount of Ukrainians who joined Hitler is nothing to the mass betrayal by Russains, who supported fascist in WW2 and fought on their side:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Liberation_Army

March 27, 2014 at 11:42 am |

Friend Of Humanity

Yeah, and they fought Hitler side by side with Russians. In fact, there is no such a nation as Ukraine and no such a nationality as "Ukrainian". What is called "Ukrainian" is just southern Russian.

Oh yes, they most certainly would. Putin sees himself as anointed by God to reclaim the Russian empire. He doesn't care about sanctions. He's prepared to ride them out and he no doubt believes that they'll just be watered down over time ... and he's right. The pathetic response from the west to his occupation and annexation of Crimea has only reinforced that belief.

problem with taking territory.. you have to then spends lots of time/money defending it.. Russia would have 25 million Ukrainians trying to take it back... too expensive to control.. Moscow isn't that rich..

The advanotage Putin has should he want to take over Ukraine is that he will have the Ukrianian Russians fighting along side. The West is not ready to spill more blood after Iraq and Afgahistan, Putin knows that. When he responded to the criminal action by the then Georgian leader Mikael Shakasville, the USA and its allies only barked.
The big loser of all are the Ukrainians who allowed emotion to overtake wisdow by destroying its country in the dreaming of joing the EU and NATO. Today the economy is in tatters, IMF has stepped in, this is where their nemesis begins their poor are gonna pay the huge price.

I think you are making an error in supposing that 'ethnic Russians' in Ukraine support Putin. I have just come back from Lugansk (near the Russian border – I live in Kyiv). I bet nearly everyone in the city of Lugansk is an 'ethnic Russian', but there is little evidence of support for union with Russia there – I only saw a bit of pro-Ukrainian graffiti and a few Ukr. flags. Many 'ethnic Russians' in Ukraine consider themselves 'Ukrainians'; in many cases and areas (like in Kyiv) there is no clear distinction. People in Kyiv overwhelmingly supported the protests, but mostly speak Russian.
Also, there are very large question marks over the popularity of union with Russia in even the most pro-Russian area, Crimea. According to various polls taken well before the 'referendum', about 40 percent of the population supported a union with Russia. So either there was a wholesale change of mind, or the polls were rigged, or there was a low turnout (Echo of Moscow estimates the real turnout was 40 percent). The narrative of 'ethnic Russians versus ethnic Ukrainians' is just not true, in most of this country; but this morning one of my clients – a strong supporter of the protests – confessed to me that she feels guilty about being an 'ethnic Russian'. I bet that before this story of Putin defending Russians started (and has been repeated by the west0 she never even thought about it. Remember that the protests were in defence of freedoms of speech and association (15 years in prison for 'libel/slander'), against police brutality (after the beating of peaceful student demonstrators) and against the Yanu Family looting the state (70 billion USD is the latest I've heard). it had nothing to do with ethnicity, until Mr Putin stepped in.

March 27, 2014 at 10:24 am |

Begemot

"The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea." So states the above article. Why does Russia need to establish such a land bridge? Russia lies opposite Crimea in the east across the Kerch Straits, at its narrowest a distance of 2 miles. The Russians can't cross this distance with ships, ferries, or even pontoon bridges? They don't have planes that can fly into Crimea? They have to invade Ukraine and capture hundreds of miles of territory to establish communications with Crimea? Really? Does the US need a land bridge to Hawaii to keep Hawaii functional?

Perhaps the US government is merely putting out disinformation to maintain an atmosphere of alarm. Or are the US goverment's analysts this stupid?

They can't send electricity and water into Crimea over the strait. That comes from Ukraine through the northern part of the peninsula. So the Russians have the land, and everything else that they could grab, but the Ukrainians can turn out the lights and the water taps. Presumably the Russians might try to fix that problem.

Thee relocated mobile power stations from Sochi to Crimea already, therefore Crimea is self-sustainable in electricity and in relation to water, well there are no signs of shortages of water.

March 27, 2014 at 5:44 am |

fb

There is no shortage of water/electricity in Crimea only because Ukraine keeps supplying them from the continent. Relocated power stations can't satisfy even a couple of percent of Crimean needs, and Russia does not supply water to Crimea at all.

March 27, 2014 at 11:46 am |

Rob

Or maybe they are right and hiding your head in the sand isn't the answer. YOU have not seen the intell, THEY have and to dismiss their assessment out of hand because you don't like the answer is typical of the many things wrong with America today

When was the last time Russian soldiers actually were in Full combat? If its been awhile then good luck. Of course they can do a lot of damage but is Putin really THAT serious? If so, it may cost him his life, correct? It looks like its not really up to Obama soon if Putin keeps it up because there is 1 thing that would unite All Americans and that is fighting the Russians for the great cause of Freedom. Sorry Russians, you gotta do the heavy lifting on this and Ras-Putin that dude. And stop dreaming of the romantic days of black market jeans, ugly cars, bread lines and he KGB.

The reality is that if we allow Russia to make this move we lose an incredible opportunity to get NATO forces closer to Moscow. With the Ukraine wanting to join the EU, Putin is terrified that NATO forces could put bases and assets in the Russian border, giving NATO leverage in the region. This is why Putin pushed for the annexation of Crimea. He can absorb Easter Ukraine, and put a land buffer between himself, the Black Sea fleet, and NATO forces.

Good grief Jdc, do you really believe that mumbo-jumbo you just posted above? Only a stupid crazy fool thinks that NATO(the UNholy alliance) should be involved even if Russia did enter eastern Ukraine which is highly unlikely. However, the right-wing thugs in Washington are glad that people like you feel the way you do.

It's cute seeing all you Russians pretend to be Americans. First, the UN and NATO are two different alliances. By your random Capitalization of Different words you seem to be thinking they are they same thing. I consider myself a social and economic liberal, and I do think NATO should do something. The UN can't, since Russia is on the security council and since one veto is more than enough, but yes. If they enter and independent country that hasn't threatened them, someone needs to step up. Go back to smoking whatever it is you are and singing your hippie tunes.

March 27, 2014 at 2:35 am |

Allen

Obama gave Putin the green light with his "more concerned" comment about what could happen in the US. And the EU folks don't really care - they need the gas & oil from Russia.

Did you sign up to go fight yet? Putin knows that the Americans are logistically far away and that the Europeans hardly ever do anything until shoved up against the wall. But do sign up. You never know.

I think we'd have record numbers of sign ups if they raised the age limit to 50. Not to many under 30 are willing and I don't blame 'em. However, I am totally not busy and older and would sign for FUN. Let's get it on! Whooooooo!!! Kiddin on last part.

Yes, they would roll over Ukraine... and then what.. Having severed all ties with Europe and the rest of the western world.. Ukraine economy was in the tank.. Crimean economy was even worse.. "You break it, you bought it"..

Russian economy isn't really doing all that hot, except for the energy sector... Yes, they can ship the stuff to China, but there is no infrastructure to get it there.. All the pipelines end in the "Stans"..Would take time and a lot of Rubles to get it anywhere it is needed in China..

Yes, they would roll over Ukraine... and then what.. Having severed all ties with Europe and the rest of the western world.. Ukraine economy was in the tank.. Crimean economy was even worse.. "You break it, you bought it"..

Russian economy isn't really doing all that hot, except for the energy sector... Yes, they can ship the stuff to China, but there is no infrastructure to get it there.. All the pipelines end in the "Stans"..Would take time and a lot of Rubles to get it anywhere it is needed in China..

Ok so the US and NATO have known this for weeks. Yet have established no type of deterrent or no fly zone. Apparently thru are going to give Putin what he wants? I hope everyone sanctions the hell out of Russia. I guess the plan is to crush their economy.

It is the perfect storm for the USA . We don't have to do anything but ratchet up some more sanctions. Then Europe will join in on the more stringent sanctions. The Ukrainians have already said that they will fight the Russians, this is not Crimea by the way but Ukraine proper. The Ukrainians don't have to fight a classic European battle but a guerrilla type of war forcing the Russians to use much of their troops protecting supply lines and roads. They can also blow up the pipe lines which is a game changer for the Russians. Moldova will fight too even though they are a very small country. It will be a long fight and very expensive for Russia. The USA has already said it will not get involved militarily so we can just watch Putin slowly disable his own country.

It's extremely unlikely that the US will get involved militarily. Obama had already said military options are off the table which I totally agree with. We should support and even help arm Ukraine and let Russia self destruct.

March 26, 2014 at 10:15 pm |

JonnyC

Guerrilla wouldn't work, the Russians know the area just as well as the Ukrainians and the Russians have lots of friendlies in Ukraine. 30 k in troops is a deterrent not an assault force if it was 60k or 100k then yes Ukraine will be in Russia again. However the Russians do traditionally have the ability to mobilize troops quickly so I would not rule it out completely. Now for the Ukraine cutting any pipeline would hurt NATO more than it would hurt Russia.

March 26, 2014 at 10:29 pm |

Kealen

Not mention Putin will have to divert troops from other occupation regions to maintain a theater of operations in a Country as large and anti Russian as Ukraine, further destabilizing Russia. Putin is a megalomaniac and as much as he plays up the "Russian speaker" card he neglects to mention those Russian speakers are still ethnic Ukrainians who suffered the worst during Stalin's starvation of Ukraine. They will fight and this will be very bloody if he crosses the border in force, considering that the Russian army is 70% poor conscripts his popularity will drop quickly when the body bags start arriving in Moscow

March 26, 2014 at 11:27 pm |

Gerald O'Hare

Sorry folks, I never posted that silly comment above. Some Tea Partying jerk is trying to make a fool out of me. For the record, I don't think Russia will enter Ukraine whether Obama spews out his phony outrage or not.

I've heard that all my life and I'm 67 so I don't think so Ivan. Go read George Friedmans "The Next 100 Years" where he predicts this types of Russian confrontation with the west. Russia lacks manpower, industry and historically the Russian army has problems with projecting power over long distances. Also this Russian federation is a shadow of the old USSR. This time nest year Russia will be in a deep recession with hyper inflation. While the USA will keep on producing gas and oil.

March 26, 2014 at 11:27 pm |

Gerald O'Hare

I fully agree with you, Jordo. That jerk above is only trying to make me look dumb so pay him no heed. Like you, I too am sick and tired of all this go shoot'em up idiocy that these ignoramuses keep posting here.

March 27, 2014 at 12:22 am |

Patrick in Denver

Sorry Jordo. It's not the US days as a super power that are numbered. We have a bright future. Russia is over. Little more than half the population of the old USSR, one sixth the population of the EU and one eighth the GDP of the EU or the US. If Putin wants to waisting his resources rebuilding the Russian military rather than investing in Russian infrastructure, laughable education system and woeful heath care he should go ahead. Russia is little more that a fly buzzy around the west.

Russia isnt sure if the Ukrain 100% gave up their nukes. Surly they still have missles. Tell Putin to withdraw or face Moscow getting nuked. Sneek one over there or deliver cruise missles to Ukrain. One low level flight and a cruise could take out Moscow, Putin and his Government. Good luck getting anybody else to give up their nukes if they dont.

In August 2005, just 5 months after becoming a US Senator, Barack Hussein Obama traveled to Ukraine with Dick Lugar.
He pushed Ukraine into going beyond destroying nuclear weapons. He pushed through funding in Washington. He pushed Ukraine into destroying small weapons, anti-aircraft missiles and tons of ammunition. This is what a Judas goat does.
CNN and the rest of MSM didn't cover it then and will not cover this story now.
...and what about that tender moment between Barack and Dmitry Medvedev only two years ago. Barry Soetero leaned over, looked deeply into Dmitry's eyes and said "This is my last election. I will have more flexibility after the election". Dmitry responded that he would transmit this information to Vladimir [Putin]. The issue at the time was missile defense. At the time, spokesMarxist Dan Rhodes declared that the Obama regime was "committed" to missile defense. Two years have passed. Where is the missile defense? Ask Obama, Kerry, Hillary, Susan Rice, Chuck Hagel and their treasonous ilk...

Russian land grab and typical commie maneuver knowing the west are cowards and will not fight back against a bully. The west figured that if Russia were economically tied into Europe then they would put money before army. Well he fooled you... Russians don't change. The are the modern version of Attila the Hun or Alexander or Ghengis. You got to fight back from strength not words.

Right of self determination applies to Chechen people too, however let's be realistic about it, Russia did not enter Crimea to protect self determination rights of Crimean people. It was just an excuse to justify it in the eyes of the international community. The real reason is Russians are sick and tired of the United States and NATO encroaching closer and closer to their back yard, planting military bases all over the place and meddling in the internal affairs of the neighboring countries that Russia considers it's sphere of influence. Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are areas of vital national interest to Russia. United States and NATO don't respect Russia's interests and keep treating Russia like a defeated nation. Putin drew a red line and unlike president Obama's red line, it means business.

People keep on saying that the west was interfering in the affairs of these former Soviet Republics and provoked Russia. That is the most ignorant sentiment I have ever heard, the type of thing you expect from uneducated people who burn crosses and blame all their problems on jews or catholics, anyone but themselves obviously. These countries came to the EU and the United States selling political influence for economic and infrastructure loans and investment. They asked for greater economic and military cooperation to balance out the Russian influence on their countries and economies, what these countries want is to be neutral and free of Russian or Western influence and be free to cooperate with either sphere freely as they see fit. Russia makes that impossible for them by bullying and blackmailing mailing them if they don't have a pro Kremlin government so they are forced to seek protection and form stronger connections with the west. If France or Canada became pro Chinese or Russian and cut ties with the US I am sure there would be economic consequences but I also know I won't suddenly look out my window and see American soldiers occupying my country. To say these former Soviet Republics owe Russia something or don't deserve the right to self determination after hundreds of years of oppression is almost condoning slavery. While there are left over Ethnic Russians in the formally occupied countries they aren't in the numbers Russia claims or are ever really persecuted, the West is reeling from a long distant military occupation or two and multiple interventions plus economic recovery. It is now or never to take what they want, the West might not be as hesitant in 5 to 10 years. The Americans are on track to surpass Russia in energy production and has twice the population, just that provokes Russia because they have a megalomaniac mentality, they have no interest joining the EU and being just another member they want to "lead" their own union. My only hope is that it takes a lot less blood to teach the Russians to behave than it did Germany.

Sorry Kealen but your neocon mentality is in the minority in the west.

This is Russia's long-standing sphere of influence, an area that Ronal Reagan would not have contested (Obama is a fool for acting like the area is America's business). Just a month ago, Moscow was sending military supplies to Syria via Odessa. The area was in their control...they just stupidly thought the Berkut could control Kiev against professionally trained putschists from Lvov (trained in Poland).

So it's bizarre to get your panties in a twist about the idea that Russia will want an area back that they had 4 weeks ago and for hundreds of years before that.

If, and it's a big if, Russia moves in, it will be either to replace the coup government and keep Ukraine intact, or to give the eastern provinces referendums or annex the east. Whatever happens, it's hopefully already been agreed upon with the west (which would get western Ukraine) because we don't need another Cold War and definitely don't need any hot war.

A new Cold War will cause the break up of the EU as states hold referendums to get out entirely.

We will hopefully see a ton of countries breaking any increased sanctions with Russia as well.

The age of the US neocon has to end. Russia is not communist. There is no ideology for NATO to stand against anymore. I doubt Russia will want eastern Estonia but, if you want, you can expend your efforts declaring a red line there if you want.

March 27, 2014 at 5:30 am |

Points to Consider

And you neocons are never going to "teach" Russians anything.

You will only bring on WW3. Russians will otherwise watch as the GOP crashes and burns despite their advantage on the Obamacare issue, because Americans will rightly see how arrogant and hypocritical they are (the problem is the neocons control both American political parties and have clearly already set up shop under Obama).

I am an American neocon by the way and I served under Reagan against Soviet communism.

The thing is, a smart neocon would never dream of messing with the Russians in Ukraine because that would mean the end of the world.

That would be like the Russians setting up their own government in Canada. US troops would be massing at the border with Canada if that happened.

March 27, 2014 at 5:36 am |

Karl Karlsson

This is a very good evidence of the lack of education in USA,. A country that soon will implode by their stupidity.

March 27, 2014 at 10:13 am |

jon barrow

Hi. While I agree with most of your sentiments, be careful about playing into Putin's propaganda by assuming the 'ethnic Russians' are on his side. I live in Ukraine. As I've written in a longer post above, very many Ukrainian citizens are part or wholly Russian by ancestry, but consider themselves Ukrainian. I think the figures you see (15 percent 'ethnic Russian' or whatever) actually downplay the Russian presence, as nearly all the 'ethnic Russians' I know call themselves 'Ukrainians'. it is true that western Ukrainians, from the far-west, have less 'Russian' blood in them, as well as a less Soviet mentality. But nearly all the population of Kyiv speaks Russian, would be hard put to define how 'Russian' it is; yet supported the protests and supports the national cause. This is a culture clash, rather than an ethnic war; and there might be justice in the claim that Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens are the only really 'free Russians'.

March 27, 2014 at 10:38 am |

James

So a question to all the Russians out there who support Putin. Why is it that you're for the so called self determination of people in Ukraine and other countries but you aren't for self determination of the Chechen people?

The Republic of Chechnya is autonomous, with its own parliament and so on. Separatism sentiments vis a vis Russia are rather small nowadays thanks to the massive improvement of the situation there, and for the past two decades the rebels have taken on a completely different character (i.e. they've become a small group of militant muslim insurgents fighting for an wahhabistic Caucasian Emirate under Sharia Law that not only incorporates Chechnya but also all surrounding regions, including neighboring Dagestan which these islamists invaded in 1999 and thus provoked the 2nd Chechen war). In all honesty, Chechnya is entirely dependent on remaining a federal subject of Russia for its own survival (enormous amounts of aid and investment), and its people know this. The Chechen people also know that the islamic fundamentalists need to be kept at bay (these rebels aren't very nice to ordinary Chechens either, killing hundreds of them each year).

Hypocritical American neocons (I'm a non-hypocritical American neocon) are just too brainwashed to recognize that their rhetorical question about Chechnya is just plain dumb.

Of course all radical Muslim areas are the exception to the rule that we should allow peaceful people to secede.

Any true American neocon would agree that Islamofascists do not deserve democracy until they stop being Islamofascists.

And maybe polls would show the people of Chechnya would prefer to stay with Russia. A lot of those who hated Russia are not alive anymore. And the country would not be viable where it is so it could never be a separate country and survive as anything but a forward base for terrorism.

March 27, 2014 at 5:42 am |

Kealen

Without Russian soldiers on the street and a ballot that gave the choice of being a poor yet independent country or a province of Russia, no option for staying with Ukraine, the referendum would have failed because the numbers for separation of Crimea from Ukraine were only at 35%. Rising sharply to 35% because of the former Yanukovych governments looting of the country and destruction of the economy. Only allowing people with a Russian passport to vote was a bit strange but then a guy installed as president, who only got 4% of the vote, at gunpoint by masked Russian soldiers calling a referendum in 2 weeks with foreign election monitors forbidden to enter Crimea can't really be called will of the people as much as will of Putin.

Why are you still crying over spilled milk Kealen? What business is it of yours?

The Crimeans have always considered themselves to be Russian, not Ukrainian. Argue about Dnepropetrovsk if you want but you can get off the subject of Crimea now.

March 27, 2014 at 5:44 am |

Volodymyr

Excellent point...and we should continue to cry over "spilled milk". Imagine Barack holding a referendum in the US. Imagine Barack arming Black Panthers and posting armed Black Panthers at all polling places...in unmarked uniforms of course...just something they picked up at the local army and navy store, you know, like Vlad said.
Imagine Barack taking over state house , installing new governors and not allowing any opposition in. That's what happened in Crimea.
And Crimea has not always been Russia. Wasn't it Catherine the Bestial who annexed Crimea in the 1700's.
Don't the Crimean Tartars have a say...you know, the ones Stalin deported in 1944...the ones who have been returning since Ukraine became independent and the ones who support Crimea remaining part of Ukraine. They comprise 12% of the population. In polls held months before the so-called referendum, the majority supported Crimea staying with Ukraine. The neo-bolshevik Vladimir Putin holds referendums the way the Bolsheviks, the North Koreans, the Cubans held and continue to hold elections. Putin operates like many that preceded him: Matvei Berman, Henrikh Yagoda, Lavrenti Beria, Nikolai Yezhov, Lev Aronovich Shvartsman, Nikita Khrushchev...

March 27, 2014 at 6:23 am |

Olaf Big

Volodymyr, I don't get the logic. So Crimean Tatars, which make 12% of the population want to stay in Ukraine, and that outweighs the Russians, who comprise, what 70% of the population, who wanted to leave?

March 27, 2014 at 5:12 pm |

Numerius

Are you for for self determination of Texas? They want to separate too I heard...

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