November 1968

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90th Congress 2nd Session DEC 2 196b ANK Se M B B Jiconomic Indicators November 1968 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong WILLIAM PROXMIRE Wisconsin Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN Texas Vice Chatrman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN Alabama J W FULBRIGHT Arkansas HERMAN E TALMADGE Georgia STUART SYMINGTON Missouri ABRAHAM RIBICOFF Connecticut JACOB K JAVITS New York JACK MILLER Iowa LEN B JORDAN Idaho CHARLES H PERCY Illinois HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING Missouri HALE BOGGS Louisiana HENRY S REUSS Wisconsin MARTHA W GRIFFITHS Michigan WILLIAM S MOORHEAD Pennsylvania THOMAS B CURTIS Missouri WILLIAM B WIDNALL New Jersey DONALD RUMSFELD Illinois W E BROCK 3d Tennessee JOHN R STARK Executive Director JAMES W KNOWLES Director of Research COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR M OKUN Chairman MERTON J PECK WARREN L SMITH Economic Indicators prefared under supervision of FRANCES M JAMES PUBLIC LAW 120 81sx CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts drawn by Art Production Branch Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Economic Indicators published monthly is available at 25 cents a single copy or by subscription at 3 00 per year foreign 4 00 from SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions The domestic airmail subscription price is 6 10 additional per year The 1967 revised edition of the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicatorst which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues is available at 70 cents a copy from the Superintendent of Documents Government Printing Office ii TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING THE NATION S INCOME EXPENDITURE AND SAVING Current estimates indicate that gross national product advanced 18 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter somewhat less than the record increase of nearly 21 billion in the second quarter Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Government Persons Disposable personal income Period Total I III IV I II m Net receipts PerLess Equals Personal sonal Less Less Tax Interest Total consump saving Trans Equals Total Trans Equals or paid and excludand tion Purfers fers nontax interest Net ing disexpendtransfer expend interest chases interest itures saving receipts payreceipts itures of goods and and or and ments and subsub 2 services accruals sidies 2 to fortranssidies eigners fers I I II III IV I II III Net Net exports of goods Total Statistransfers and services Excess of income tical Gross discrepGross Excess to foror transfers private retained domestic of eigners or receipts ancy by earnof net invest invest sons perment and Exports ings3 Less Equals exports ment 4 Net GovernImports exports ment Personal income p 5 less personal tax and nontax payments fines penalties etc 2 Government transfer payments to persons foreign net transfers by Jovernment net interest paid by Government and subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises s Undistributed corporate profits corporate inventory valuation adjustment capital consumption allowances and wage accruals less disbursements Docs not include retained earnings of unincorporated business which are included in disposable personal income Surplus or deficit income and product accounts International Business Period Expenditures ao L Gross national product or expenditure Private business investment purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions and residential housing Net foreign investment with sign changed NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product seasonally adjusted advanced at an annual rate of 8 percent in the third quarter according to current estimates Nearly three fifths of the increase represented a rise in physical output and the rest higher prices BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES M 100 UII I GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES J SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Ill COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Government purchases of goods Total Personal Gross Net services congross Total private exports sump domestic of goods Federal national gross tion product national Total investand National Other in 1958 product expend ment services Total defense1 prices itures Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period I II III IV 1968 I II This category corresponds closely with budget expenditures for national defense shown on p 36 2 Gross national product in current prices divided by gross national product in 1958 prices and Implicit price deflator State for total and GNP local NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce NATIONAL INCOME rJational income rose 16 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter nearly matching the first and second quarter increases Gains were reported for all types of income BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 300 PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period I II III IV 1968 I II III v 1 2 Total national income A 722 0 Compensation of em 1 ployees S 471 5 4X Proprietors income Farm S IT 4 Includes employer contributions for social insurance Sec also p 4 Excludes farm profits of corporations en a ed in fanning and therefore dilTrrs from net farm income including n l i n v e n t o r y change on p 0 which includes such profits Business and professional Rental income of persons S 40 4f G 40 S S 4S S Net interest L L o U 3 Lf 0 L5 S LG 7 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 3 Total SO Profits Inventory before valuation taxes 3 adjustment Sec Note p 7 NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce o SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME The 2 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate of increase in personal income in October was the smallest sine January and less than half of the average gain of recent months Wages and salaries and interest income accounted for most of the October rise BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 BILUONS OF DOLLARS WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income Sept Get Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Billions of dollars monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Wage Proprietors income Rental Other and Personal Transfer Divisalary labor 2 Business income paydends interest ments of disburse income Farm and pro persons income ments 1 fessional Compensation of employees see p 3 excluding employer contributions for social insurance and wage accruals less disbursements 2 Employer contributions to private pension health and welfare funds compensation for injuries directors fees military reserve pay and a few other minor items COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less Personal con Nonagritributions cultural 3 for social personal insurance income Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages agricultural net interest and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce pISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Current estimates for the third quarter show a 16 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate gain in personal income Reflecting the tax surcharge the increase in disposable income was held to a more modest 61A billion With personal outlays up a sharp 1 31 3 billion the saving rate dropped to 6 3 percent from 7 5 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per capita disLess Personal outlays posable personal Equals Personal consumption Equals income Disexpenditures 3 Personal posable Total saving Current personal personal Durable Non1958 income outlays l durable Services prices prices goods goods II III IV 1968 I III Billions of dollars Seasonally adjusted annual Includes personal consumption expenditures interest paid by consumers and personal transfer payments to foreigners 2 See p 2 for total personal consumption expenditures 3 Includes armed forces abroad Annual data are for July 1 quarterly data are for middle of period interpolated from monthly data rates Saving as percent of Population dis thou 3 posable personal sands income percent Dollars NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce FARM INCOME According to current estimates net farm income excluding and including inventory change seasonally adjusted rose about 4 percent in the third quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 50 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE I Personal income received by total farm population Income received from farming Realized gross From all sources I II III IV I II III From From farm nonfarm sources sources i Net to farm operators Net income per farm including net inventory change 3 ProducCash tion ex Exclucl Includreceipts penses ingnetin ing net in Current 1967 from Total i ventory ventory2 prices 4 prices marketchange change ings Billions of dollars Dollars f i i i Seasonally adjusted annual rales i 4 640 j 34 4 j i r 4 840 i i Cash receipts from marketings Government payments and nonmoney income furnished by farms 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year Also see footnote 2 p 3 3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm The number of farms is held constant within a year 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVSSERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Period i 4 Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by fanners for family living items on a 1967 base NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Agriculture CORPORATE PROFITS Preliminary estimates indicate that corporate profits before taxes increased a modest 1A billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter to a level of more than 92 billion This represented an 111A billion gain over a year earlier BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period III IV Ill COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Corporate profits before taxes and inventory Corporate profits valuation adjustment after taxes TransCorpo CorpoMan uf a cturin g portation rate rate comDiviUntax profits NonAll Durable durable muniAll 1 before liabilindusTotal dend distribgoods uted paytaxes ity Total indusgoods cations other tries and ments profits industries public tries utilities G A LO LI f A W C t i S J L H S Includes 1 all other industries and financial institutions Includes depreciation capital outlays charged to current account and accidental darn apes Corporate profits after taxes pins corporate capital consumption allowances 21 4GG Corpo Profits plus rate capital capital con con sump sumption tion allow 2 allowances ances NOTK Data beginning 1962 adjusted for effects of new depreciation guidelines 2 2 billion for 1062 and therefore not comparable with preceding data Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment in the third quarter was practically unchanged seasonally adjusted from the second quarter level according to current estimates A 3 billion annual rate recovery in business fixed investment was offset by a moderation in the rate of inventory accumulation from its high second quarter level Residential construction was unchanged BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1 140 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES k m mn t IIIIIU I I I I I M n l MMM l l l K f riUt I iu l t NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES J i 1 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES J J L 1962 L 1 I J L J 1965 J L L COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Fixed investment Total gross private domestic invests ment Period Total Total NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning Producers durable equipment Structures Total I II III IV 1968 I II Ill Residential structures Nonresidential Nonfarm Total Total Nonfarm Source Department of Commerce Nonfarm Change in business inventories Total Nonfarm EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT ant and equipment expenditures seasonally adjusted were down sharply in the second quarter A strong recovery anticipated for the second half of the year resulting in a projected increase of 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 1967 to the fourth quarter of 1968 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 60 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT NONMANUFACTURING r 20 MANUFACTURING J JL I I SEE NOTE 3 OH TABLE BELOW SOURCES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Transportation Manufacturing Period Total l Total I I II III IV 1968 I II III3 3 IV ia Durable goods Nondurable goods Excludes agriculture 2 Commercial and other includes trade service finance communications and construction a Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business In late July and August 1968 Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data NOTE Beginning 1959 all quarterly data are rounded to nearest 50 million Railroads Other Public utilities Mining Commercial and other Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense Sources Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGEP STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The civilian labor force seasonally adjusted declined by 27 000 in October thoush nonagricultural employment rose 116 000 to set a record of almost 72 5 million Unemployment was down MILLIONS OF PERSONS 90 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 90 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT nj t i i i i I i i i t i I f i t i i I i i i i i I t i i i i I i i t i i I i t i i i I i t i i t I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i l i i i i t I i i i i i I t i i i i I 0 PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Tl n n L r r YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total labor force including armed forces Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Civilian employment Total Civilian employment labor force UnemCivilian NonNon includ labor Agriployagriagriing force Total ment Total culeulcularmed tural tural tural forces Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over Unadjusted Seasonally adjusted Une mploy ment rate percent of Unem civilian labor force ployment Unad Seasonjusted ally adjusted Percent i Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population NOTE Beginning 1960 data include Alaska and Hawaii 10 Source Department of Labor Labor force participation rate unad l justed SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART TIME EMPLOYMENT he seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3 6 percent in October PERCENT PERCENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST THROUGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART TIME WORK souRCEc DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Unemployment rate percent of civilian labor force in group Period Labor force time lost Experi Married through unemenced All men ployment Over 40 wage and wife and part hours workers salary present time workers work Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Percent Seasonal ad ustef Man hours lost by the unemployed and those on part time for economic reasons as a percent of total man hours potentially available to the civilian labor force Beginning 1963 series reflects whether unemployed persons sought fullor part time jobs 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment p 10 which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation illness bad weather and industrial disputes Persons at work in nonagri cultural 2industries by hours worked per week Under 35 hours 35 40 hours Part time for economic reasons Part time for economic reasons Total Usually Usually Usually Usually fullpartfullparttime 4 time 3 time 4 time 3 Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over f7n adjusted easona i adjws ed Includes persons who worked part time because of slack work material shortages or repairs new job started or job terminated 4 Primarily includes persons who could find only part time work 5 Average hours worked usually full time 23 9 usually part time 18 5 Source Department of Labor 1 1 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October insured unemployment under State programs averaged 95 000 lower than a year earlier The seasonal adjusted insured unemployment rate declined slightly to 2 1 percent matching the low reached in the spring and fall of 1966 MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 1 3 3 WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT STATE PROGRAMS I JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT SOUtCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct v Week ended 1968 Oct Nov DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All programs Insured Total unem benefits Insured ploypaid Covered unememploy milment ployment weekly lions ment averof dollars age Thousands a State programs Initial claims Insured unemployment as perExhaus cent of covered employment tions Unad Seasonjusted ally adjusted Weekly average thousands NOTE For definitions and coverage see the 1967 Supplement to Economic Indicators Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods and for Puerto Rico since January 1961 NOV Source Department of Labor Percent Benefits paid Total Average milweekly check lions of dollars dollars ff o t 4 O 243 7 n o 231 1 a L a 06 a ft NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Rising for the ninth consecutive month total nonagricultural payroll employment seasonally adjusted in October reached a level of more than 68 5 million Employment in manufacturing private nonmanufacturing and State and local government each rose by approximately 50 000 MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 68 ENLARGED SCALE 14 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE SERVICES 10 56 NONMANUFACTURING PRIVATE v DURABLE MANUFACTURING 10 74 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING L M CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION GOVERNMENT 12 HM SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of wage and salary workers seasonally adjusted Manufacturing private Period Sept Oct Nov Dec1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Total Nonmanufacturing private NonTotal Durable durable Total goods goods Contract Mining construetion i Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the armed forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 10 which include proprietors self empleyed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on an enu Transportation and public utilities Wholesale and retail trade Government Finance insurance Services Federal State and and local real estate meration of population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments NOTE Beginning 1959 data include Alaska and Hawaii Source Department of Labor 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK SELECTED INDUSTRIES In October the average workweek seasonally adjusted declined fractionally in manufacturing 0 1 hours It also declined in contract construction 0 4 hours and retail trade 0 3 hours HOURS PER WEEK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 46 HOURS PER WEEK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 46 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING x s v 42 V VV s jl 1 v i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i r i i 1 i i i ii I 1 I I 1 i 1 i i i i iK 34 V I I L I I I i i i i i i i i i i K 1968 N 42 RETAIL TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION i 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF IABOR 1 Average hours per week seasonally adjusted Manufacturing industries Period Sept Oct N o v Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct v Durable goods All i Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning Nondurable goods Contract construction Includes eating and drinking places Source Department of Labor Retail trade AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS SELECTED INDUSTRIES For the second month in a row average hourly earnings in October set new records 3 05 in manufacturing 4 49 in contract construction and 2 20 in retail trade Weekly earnings were at a new high of 125 36 in manufacturing but declined slightly in both contract construction and retail trade DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES V f c x V i SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF IA8OR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS For production workers or nonsupervisory employees Average hourly earnings current prices Period Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aue 53eptp Oct Manufacturing industries Contract conRetail NonDurable durable structrade 1 All goods tion goods S So x 04 I IS K 2 M Average weekly earnings current prices Manufacturing industries All GO 117 GO 119 3G 1 20 1 S 1 IS 21 I 122 2V Includes eating and drinking places Earnings in current prices adjusted to exclude the effects of over hue and interindustry shifts 3 Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index NonDurable durable goods goods 89i GO 25 75 i f G S GS Y2 92 i i 02 i o 29 I T G Of SO 1 03 SG 10G G 10S 2i f Contract construction Retail 1 trade Of If G GG Manufacturing industries Adjusted Average hourly weekly earnings earnings prices NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959 Source Department of Labor 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production seasonally adjusted rose about percent in October The index was 5 percent above the level of a year earlier but about Vs percent below the record high of July Index SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Index SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOUROb BOAJtD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Period Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Total industrial production isas Total Final products NonDurable durable NOTE Data for 1967 have been revised For details see Federal Reserve Bulletin November Market Industry Manufacturing Mining Utilities Total Consumer goods Equipment a Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Materials PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Output of most manufactures seasonally adjusted increased in October Primary metals registered the largest gain with a rise of 31A percent following 2 months of decline lex SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Index SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CHEMICALS PETROLEUM AND RUBBER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM seasonally adjusted Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period 1959 I Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Primary metals FabriTranspor Lumber Textiles Paper Machin tation and cated apparel and ery and metal equipprodprintleather ing products ment ucts NOTE Data for 1967 have been revised For details sec Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1968 Chemicals Foods petrobeverleum and ages and rubber tobacco Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17 INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION In October a large increase was registered in automobile assemblies Steel production improved Other weekly indicators of production were mixed MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS DAILY AVERAGE STEEL L LJ 1 5 J F M A M J J A S O N D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS J F M A M J Period Weekly average Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended 1968 Oct Nov O N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Cars and trucks Steel produced power coal mined produced loaded Index distributed thousands thousands thousands assembled thousands Thousands of net millions of of short Total Cars Trucks of tons of cars tons 100 kilowatt hours tons l i Daily average Includes data for Alaska 18 S J SOURCES AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE AND WARD S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Not charted Sources American Iron and Steel Institute Edison Electric Institute Department of the Interior Association of American Railroads American Paper Institute and Ward s Automotive Reports NEW CONSTRUCTION me value of new construction seasonally adjusted increased Vz percent in September A strong 31 2 percent rise in residential construction was almost offset by a 5Vs percent decline in commercial and industrial building Public construction increased percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total new construction expenditures Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Residential nonfarm Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Billions of dollars Total i Other Federal State and local S S Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June Julv Aug Sept S Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations not shown separately 2 Compiled by F W Dodge Company and relates to 48 States Construction contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index industrial floor space 100 millions of square feet Seasonally Seasonally adjusted adjusted annual rates NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959 Sources Department of Commerce and F W Dodge Company 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private nonfarm housing starts declined 3 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of units However they were 13 percent above the low average of May and June Permits for future starts also declined by 21 2 percent MILLIONS OF UNITS 25 MILLIONS OF UNITS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION 1FHA AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION VA Total private and Period public including farm G S Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay June July Aug Sept Oct Total private including farm Thousands of unite Housing starts Private nonfarm Private nonfarm Total private Government Two or includOnemore ing Total home programs Total family famifarm FHA VA lies Seasonally adjusted Authorized by issuance of local building permit in 13 000 permit issuing places beginning for and 10 000 prior to 1963 2 Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction 20 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Proposed home construction New private Applica Requests housing units tions for for VA FHA authorcommit appraisized l als 2 ments annual rates NOTE Data include Alaska and Hawaii Sources Department of Commerce Federal Housing Administration FHA and Veterans Administration VA BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES TOTAL AND TRADE According to preliminary figures October retail sales seasonally adjusted declined 1 2 percent following another modest decline in September Total business sales were up 1 percent in September and the rate of inventory accumulation slowed to 460 million following a 860 million rise in August BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 160 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 RETAIL TRADE ENLARGED SCALE BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES DURABLE GOODS STORES INVENTORIES SALES 10 80 SALES WHOLESALE TRADE ENLARGED SCALE 22 NONDURABLE GOODS STORES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business l Retail5 Wholesale4 Inventories3 Sales2 Sales2 Period Inventories 3 Sales Inventories 3 Total NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total Durable goods stores IS Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug v Sept Oct v 1 2 The term business also includes manufacturing 3 Monthly average for year and total for month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted Beginning 1961 data include Alaska and Hawaii 5 Beginning 1960 data include Alaska and Hawaii see page NOTE Series have been revised for retail and manufacturing trade see p 22 For details see Survey of Current Business November 1968 Source Department of Commerce 21 MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers shipments seasonally adjusted rose a substantial 3 percent in September The inventory sales ratk declined to a level of 1 70 as inventories registered a modest gain of about 170 million Durable goods orders increased a sharp 4 percent BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 90 MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS MANUFACTURERS INVENTORIES 80 TOTAL 70 60 DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS NEW ORDERS 30 i NONDURABLE GOODS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Non Total Durable durable goods goods Total Durable goods Manufacturers new orders 1 Manu Durable goods Manufacturers shipments1 Manufacturers inventories2 turers inventory shipments ratio 3 Non Nondurable goods Total Machinery Total and durable goods equipment fac Millions of dollars seasonally adjusted July 4 U i Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July iue Sept S Monthly average for year and total for month 2 Book value end of period seasonally adjusted For annual periods ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments for monthly data ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month 22 f o 466 o J I NOTE Series revised beginning 1960 See Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders Bureau of the Census Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958 Source Department of Commerce MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS jfhc U S merchandise trade balance improved markedly in September registering a surplus of 282 million seasonally adjusted More than usual caution is required in interpreting this one month change in view of possible anticipation shipments of both exports and imports in the face of a threatened east coast dock strike BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MEE NOTE i BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions Merchandise exports Total includDomestic exports ing reexports 1 Food Crude Season Unad Total i 3 bever materials ages ally adjusted and and tojusted fuel bacco Monthly average L Unadjusted Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb S7 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program 2 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments of dollars Merchandise imports Jcnera 1 imports 2 To tal 3 ManufacSeasontured ally ad I nadjuslrd goods justed i w2 Crude matettgOS rials and toand bacco fuels Food bover G rossmerchandise trade Manusurplus facseasontured ally adgoods justed joo i HOO S i r r Unadjusted I2t ti j wx WK fiVfi 2 4 u S2S S 421 i s w r r s r f Slf SM SOO S J Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind Source Department of Commerce J 2f i U S EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES The surplus on merchandise trade increased noticeably in the third quarter to a 1 1 billion level seasonally adjuster annual rate BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Period Total Exports of goods and services Income on investments MiliMerchantary Gov1 Pridise sales ernvate ment Imports of goods and services Other services Total Merchandise Balance on Mili Other goods tary and expend serv services itures ices Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967 II III IV L II III Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage NOTE Merchandise imports p 24 and balance on liquidity basis and official reserve transactions basis p 25 as well as data shown on an unadjusted basis 24 p 25 have been revised for the first 2 quarters of 1968 Other data for these quarters shown on these pages will be revised in December Source Department of Commerce U S BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS A surplus was recorded in the third quarter in the U S balance of payments measured on the liquidity basis of 140 million seasonally adjusted annual rate A surplus was also registered on the official reserve transactions basis of 1 8 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS SOURCE D PARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars U S private capital net Period U S Government grants and capital net l II III I V I 4 656 II Ill Direct investment Other longterm Shortterm Errors Foreign and uncapital recorded Liquidtransnet l ity actions basis Seasonally adjusted annual Balance rates 2 Oil Includes certain special Government transactions 1 Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders other foreign holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold convertible currencies and the U S gold tranche position in the IMF 3 Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold convertible currencies and the U S gold tranche position in the IMF 4 Includes short term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U S Government bonds and notes 5 Central banks governments and U S liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to and gold deposits with the U S Official reserve transactions basis 3 Changes in gold convertible currenTo foreign official cies and 5 holders To other IMF gold foreign tranche holders 6 position Liquid Non increase liquid Quarterly totals unadjusted Changes in sel ected liabilities decrea rI i 4 36 I Private holders includes banks and international and regional organizations excludes IMF 7 On Sept 30 U S reserve assets consisted of gold stock million up 74 million from June 30 IMF position including gold portion of increased U S subscription 926 million convertible currencies 2 953 million NOTE Data exclude military grant aid and U S subscriptions to IMF Source Department of Commerce 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices rose 0 2 percent in September the smallest increase in a year Higher apparel prices and medical care costs accounted for most of the increase Food prices declined for the first time this year The over the year rise in consumer prices was 4 4 percent Index Index COMMODITIES LESS FOOD I SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All items Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Source Department of Labor 26 All commodities Services Commodities Commodities less food Services All Food Rent less NonAll Durable durable services rent J WHOLESALE PRICES Preliminary estimates for October indicate that wholesale prices remained unchanged from September Farm product and food prices declined but industrial commodity prices advanced 0 4 percent Index Index PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commodities Period Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarApr May June July Aus Sept Oct v ioa i Farm products All industrials Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index 2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds includes in part grain products for further processing Industrial commodities Processed foods and feeds Crude materials a Inter Producmediate er finmateished rials 2 goods Consumer finished goods excluding food DurNonable durable ioao NOTE Beginning January 1967 the indexes incorporate a revised weighting structure reflecting 1963 values of shipments The classification structure also changed Source Department of Labor 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS During the month ended October 1 5 prices received by farmers dropped about 2 percent while prices paid increased almost 1 percent the adjusted parity ratio declined 2 points to 79 Lower prices for hogs and eggs were largely responsible for the decline in prices received higher milk prices were partially offsetting Index Index ion PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES v y NX SX I 1 1 I V f i iii t1 ii iii i ii it 1 ii i i i N J J r Sy s X f no v S S v s X 100 HRICbb REC tlVfcD ALL FARM RODUCTS P i i i i i 1 i f i i1 i I I I t I II I I II RATION RATIO IUU on On PARITY RATIO fin r X l ii l l llilitlllli N v on X V I i A V HV fO M llk I n J RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO JNOEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AND WAGE RATES ON BASE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPAHTMINT OF AGRICUITURE Prices received by farmers Period I Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May June July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15 Oct 15 All farm products HH Mtf Ill i Mm HIV M MH 10 HJH HIK Mo HIM i Percentage ratio of index of prices recelvwd by f M interest taxes and wage rates on bw 28 Crops HKI 10 J toa HH 1 l f MM t MM MM if Parity ratio l Prices paid by farmers Livestock All items interest and products taxes and wage rates Index HH 121 HKI MI 121 Mil 121 122 M t Family living items Production items Actual Adjusted Tim R ljmite l parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to imma iWMM f I jmr meat of Agriculture WDNEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY SUPPLY The seasonally adjusted money supply increased 0 8 billion in October thus regaining its August level Time deposits rose 3 0 billion their fourth consecutive large monthly increase BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCEi BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAt RESERVE SYSTEM Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct v C J A J Deposits at all commercial banks NOTE Effective June 9 1966 balances accumulated for payment of personal loans about 1 1 billion are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all commercial banks COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Averages of daily figures billions of dollars Money supply Money supply CurCurTime Time DeDerency rency dede J mand mand outTotal outTotal posits l posits dedeside side posits banks posits banks Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted U S Government demand deposits l Data include Alaska and Hawaii Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC asonally or Seasonally adjusted public holdings of time deposits and si short term U S Government securities increased substantiall in October while savings and loan shares rose very little BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 r J ASSETS OTHER THAN DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted End of period Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv v Aug p Sept Oct Total selected liquid assets Demand deposits and currency l Time deposits Commercial banks a Agrees in concept with money supply p 29 except for deduction of demand deposits held by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations Data for2 last Wednesday of month Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds domestic commercial and mutual savings banks Federal Keserve Banks and beginning February I960 savings and loan association 30 Mutual savings banks Postal Savings System Savings and loan shares U S Government U S Gov securities ernment maturing savings within bonds one year L a Keflects conversion of a savings and loan association with share capital of about 175 million to a mutual savings bank Reflects liquidation of two savings and loan associations NOTE See Note p 29 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 3ANK LOANS INVESTMENTS DEBITS AND RESERVES ollowing exceptionally large gains in the third quarter total bank credit seasonally adjusted increased an addiional 4 8 billion in October Free reserves declined slightly to a net borrowed position of 186 million BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Bank Weekly debits reporting large com outside mercial New York Total Investments City 232 banks Loans End of period loans excluding centers and seasonally inter U S Gov Other Commercial adjusted investbank ernment securi and indus annual ments securities ties trial loans rates 1 Billions of dollars Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr I 4 248 Mav June July Aug v Sept Oct 379 6 All commercial banks seasonally adjusted data A 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U S Government New series beginning January 1964 2 Averages of daily figures Annual data are for December s New series see Federal Reserve Bulletin March 1967 NOTE Data for all commercial banks revised beginning 1968 see Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1968 Effective June 1966 balances accumulated for pay All member banks Total reserves Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions of dollars ment of personal loans about 1 1 billion are excluded from loans at all commercial banks and certain certificates of CCC and Export Import Bank totaling about 1 billion are included in other securities rather than in loans Data include Alaska and Hawaii Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Seasonally adjusted instalment credit outstanding increased by more than 600 million in each month from Ma through September The increase in total consumer credit outstanding over the same 5 months was almost twice that of the corresponding period in 1967 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING INSTALMENT CREDIT NONINSTALMENT CREDIT i i i t iI i i I i SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars Mortgage Consumer instalment credit extended Consumer credit outstanding end of period debt outand repaid seasonally adjusted unadjusted standing Automobile paper Instalment Total nonfarm NonAutomo1 to 4Total instal Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Total i bile Personal a family ment paper loans houses l Also includes other consumer goods paper and repair and modernization cans not shown separately 2 Consists of single payment loans charge accounts and service credit 3 End of period unadjusted 32 t i I i 1 1 i 11 NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959 respectively Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Ho me Loan Bank Board BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Interest rates and bond yields rose durins October but in general remained below the peaks reached last spring The Treasury bill rate in early November was higher than in October while other yields remained relatively stable PERCENT PER ANNUM 7 PERCENT PER ANNUM 7 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS MOODY S SOURCEi SEE TABLE BELOW Period Sept Oct Nov Dec 1968 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended 1968 Oct Nov COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per annumJ High grade U S Government security yields municipal 3 month bonds 3 5 year Taxable Treasury 2 3 Standard issues bonds bills Poor s Rate on new issues within period Selected note and bond issues April 1953 to date bonds due or callable 10 years and after Weekly data are Wednesday figures Not charted 5 Data for first of the month based on the maximum permissible interest rate 6 percent beginning early May 1968 and 30 year mortgages paid in 15 years Prime commercial paper 4 6 months Corporate bonds Moody s Aaa Baa FHA new home mortgage yields a Sources Treasury Department Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Housing Administration Standard Poor s Corporation and Moody s Investors Service 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES YIELD AND EARNINGS The common stock price index rose to a new peak during October declined slightly in early November and by midNovember surpassed the October peak Index Index COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS RA TIO AT IO 25 25 PRICE EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS v i t i i 3 i I I I I I SOURCE STANDARD POOR S CORPORATION I N N 10 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS l Period I Oct Nov Dec J a n Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended 1968 Oct Nov Total Total Price index Industrials Capital Consumers goods goods Includes 500 common stocks 425 are industrials 55 are public utilities and 20 are railroads Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures all other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures 2 Aggregate cash dividends based on latest known annual rate divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group Annual yields 34 Railroads Dividend yield 2 percent Public utilities Price earnings ratio are averages of monthly data Weekly data are Wednesday figures 3 Ratio of price index for last day in quarter to quarterly earnings seasonally adjusted annual rate Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data 4 Tuesday prices Not charted Source Standard Poor s Corporation FEDERAL FINANCE EDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING In the First 3 months of the current fiscal year the total deficit was 3 2 billion a year earlier it was 8 9 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ENLARGED SCALE 20 ENLARGED SCALE 20 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT RECEIPT EXPENDITURE ACCOUNT J RECEIPTS LESS EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING PRELIMINARY j ESTIMATE SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Budget receipts expenditures and net lending Period Receipt expenditure account Receipts Fiscal year Cumulative totals first 3 months Fiscal year 1968 Fiscal year 1969 1 As 2 Expenditures Surplus or deficit Net lending Total surplus or deficit Public debt and agency securities end of period 1 Total Held by the public published in the Treasury Bulletin beginning July 1968 Estimate as published in Summer Review of the 1969 Budget September 1968 Bureau of the Budget Recent revisions indicate that the deficit will be about 3 billion because of higher receipts NOTE Budget receipts and expenditures net lending and the public debt Loan account are based on The Budget of the United States Government 1969 which shows data on the basis of budget concepts adopted pursuant to the recommendations of the President s Commission on Budget Concepts Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of the current fiscal year receipts were 8 3 billion over a year earlier while expenditures were up 2 8 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EXPENDITURES AND NET LENDING NONDEFENSE mm Jf I K N NATIONAL DEFENSE J A FISCAL YEARS J PRELIMINARY J ESTIMATE SOURCES TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Expenditures and net lending Receipts National defense Period Fiscal year Cumulative totals first 3 months Fiscal year 1968 Fiscal year 1969 Total Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes Other Expenditure account 2 Estimate as published in Summer Review of the 1969 Budget September 1968 Bureau of the Budget NOTE Heceipts and outlays in this table are based on The Budget of the United States Government 1969 which shows data on the basis of budget concepts 36 Total Total Department of Defense military Interna Health tional labor affairs and and finance welfare Other adopted pursuant to the recommendations of the President s Commission on Budget Concepts Sources Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates Federal receipts rose 10 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter and expenditures 3 billion yielding a deficit of 3 billion the smallest in nearly 2 years BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES EXPENDITURES I 100 I I I I I I I I 1 I SURPLUS pn i 20 DEFICIT n m E2 3 f v 1 WA u V k 1 Fl 1 Fl E a F n i m i i CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Federal Government receipts Period Fiscal year l Calendar year I II III IV 1968 I II III Federal Government expenditures Indirect ContriPersonal Corpo business butions rate tax and profits tax and for Total nontax nontax tax receipts accruals accruals socialinsuran ce Total GrantsSubsidies Purless in aid Net current chases Trans to State interest surplus of goods fer payand and ments paid local of Govt enterservices governments prises Surplus or deficit income and product accounts Preliminary based mostly on seasonally adjusted data not strictly com parable with preceding data NOTE Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960 Source Department of Commerce 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON D C 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Page The Nation s Income Expenditure and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories Total and Trade Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U S Exports and Imports of Goods and Services U S Balance of International Payments PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans Investments Debits and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices Yield and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts Expenditures and Net Lending Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis 38 NOTE Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted Unless otherwise stated all dollar figures are in current prices P Indicates preliminary and not available For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington D C 20402 Price 25 cents per copy 3 per year 4 foreign Domestic air mail 6 10 additional per year U S G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E