Adele was expected to clean up at the 2012 Grammy Awards, and clean up she did, taking the top prizes in the three of the four main categories: album of the year, song of the year and record of the year. (The other — best new artist — she’d already won.) She sang "Rolling in the Deep" and brought down the house. The night was hers.

The 2013 Grammy Awards, which will be broadcast live on CBS from the Staples Center in Los Angeles at 8 tonight, won’t be dominated by a single artist or a single song. Taylor Swift’s "Red" was released too late to be considered for this year’s edition and none of the other musicians up for high honors are likely to sweep. But as always, there will be big winners and also-rans. And if history is any guide, when all of the hardware is distributed, conclusions about the industry’s current values shouldn’t be tough to draw.

The Grammy Awards telecast is glamorous, but at base, it’s a trade show like any other. It’s an opportunity for show business people to reward performers and styles they like, damn others with faint praise and exert influence over the direction of the industry. Adele’s thumping victory was an acknowledgement of her aesthetic achievement and her commercial success; it was also a pat on the back for the kind of young traditionalist singer that Grammy voters tend to reward.

So rather than make predictions in a crowded field, let’s take a look at each of the six top nominees, discuss their merits and the awards they’re up for, and ask what it would mean if the Recording Academy decided to shower love on them. Think of it as a crib sheet to the telecast — in case you’d like to cultivate a rooting interest in the outcome.

Who he is: The most intriguing pop star to emerge in the past five years. Ocean is a gifted lyricist, as well as an electrifying singer, and it’s been a long time since a mainstream artist has delivered storytelling with this kind of thematic depth and geographic scope. Ocean’s liner-notes confession that his first love was a man made him a tabloid topic, and same-sex desire is an important subplot on "Channel ORANGE." But most of the album — Ocean’s debut — is about the African-American experience, and offers a sly (but always empathetic) critique of the materialism that underpins contemporary hip-hop. "Pyramids," the 10-minute centerpiece, begins in ancient Egypt and ends up in a seedy motel off the Las Vegas strip. As many recording artists do, Ocean has made noise about dropping out of showbiz and writing a novel; unlike the rest of his peers, when he says he wants to do it, I actually believe him.

What wins would mean: "Channel ORANGE" is one of the weirdest albums ever nominated for a major award. Ocean and his collaborators drop video-game sound collages in between some of the tracks and knead ambient noise into the mixes. Sometimes that’s cinematic and sometimes it’s confusing. The album is preceded by no signature hit — although "Thinkin’ ’Bout You," which is up for record of the year, comes close. Despite the depth of his writing and the enthusiasm of critics, Ocean has yet to seal the deal with the many Americans who watch television awards shows but do not otherwise engage much with popular music. Grammy voters have an opportunity to give Ocean’s career an enormous boost.

Prognosis for a big night: Ocean is, in many ways, a safe pick. His music echoes Stevie Wonder and Marvin Gaye sufficiently enough to satisfy traditionalists, and the Odd Future guest raps that decorate "Channel ORANGE" help keep his sound provocative and current. His intelligence is apparent and his songs are built to endure. I don’t encourage you to gamble, especially when the field is wide open. But if I had to wager, my money would be on Ocean.

Mumford & Sons

Up for: Album of the year ("Babel"), rock performance, rock song, Americana album, song written for visual media, long-form music video.

Who they are: Born in the West London folk revival of the late ’00s, Mumford & Sons took awhile to gather commercial traction. But once the project took off, it was unstoppable. Without the benefit of a big hit single, "Sigh No More," the band’s debut, has sold more than 2 million copies in the United States. "Babel," the follow-up, topped the Billboard 200 upon its release.

What wins would mean: Superficially, Mumford & Sons are the album of the year candidates most similar to the meat-and-potatoes, anthemic guitar rock that used to be the lifeblood of FM radio. Echoes of Springsteen, U2, Dylan, Neil Young and John Mellencamp are apparent in Marcus Mumford’s songwriting. Yet because of the pounding, heavy kick drum that runs through many of the group’s songs, there are also none-too-subtle similarities between Mumford & Sons’ arena-folk and contemporary electronic dance music. Producer Markus Dravs specializes in transferring the ecstatic quality of EDM to guitar-rock bands — he did something similar for Coldplay on "Mylo Xyloto," a strong set that was snubbed in the top categories. Dravs is up for producer of the year; if he takes that gramophone, it could be an early sign that it’s going to be Marcus Mumford’s night.

Prognosis for a big night: Very good. Two years ago, Arcade Fire took album of the year honors for "The Suburbs." Arcade Fire is stylish while Mumford is ham-fisted, but beyond that, the two acts are pretty similar. They’re both folk-rock orchestras with a knack for grandiose choruses and reverence for the past. They’re young men with the bearing of veterans — just as Adele presents herself as an old soul trapped within a 21-year-old body. Grammy voters aren’t kids. They’d like to believe that the youngsters will uphold their values.

Who they are: The Black Keys are a brutal, hard-hitting blues-rock duo from Akron. Although the group has occasionally experimented with elements of hip-hop and electropop, most of its music would have sounded perfectly natural blaring from the window of a beat-up Pinto in 1974. The Black Keys worked for many years in relative obscurity — and in the shadow of fellow nominee Jack White — before breaking through in 2010 with "Brothers." That set won the band three Grammys and a mass audience. That mass audience loved the similar "El Camino" almost as much.

What wins would mean: Should "El Camino" take the prize for album of the year, it would be validation for every independent musician who sweated it out in small clubs, banging across America in a van, hoping that crowds would finally catch on. It would also be another victory for traditionalists, and a further sign that the Academy is more comfortable with rock than it is with pop, hip-hop and electronic music. The Keys’ rudimentary arrangements make White look extravagant by comparison.

Prognosis for a big night: Not too great, I’d wager. While "El Camino" is tons of fun, it’s not quite as good as some of the group’s prior records. Giving the duo the gramophone now would be something of a makeup call. The Keys also go at it harder than Grammy voters are usually comfortable with, and "El Camino" is rougher by far than any album that’s ever snagged the top prize.

Who they are: Although its singles come on as sleek and irresistible as a fighter jet, on closer inspection, fun. is more like a mongrel dog. Lead singer Nate Ruess fronted the Format, a power-pop group, guitarist — Jersey boy Jack Antonoff led the punk rock Steel Train and pianist Andrew Dost played in the theatrical Anathallo. The helium-voiced Ruess draws from sources that other bands won’t touch, or wouldn’t know how to handle: Queen, Paul Simon and Pink Floyd, but also Styx, Journey and maybe a little Night Ranger, too. The final piece of the jigsaw puzzle is producer Jeff Bhasker, who grafted his characteristic echoed drum sound on to the band’s bombastic pop-rock compositions. The amalgam shouldn’t hold together, but through sheer force of talent, and chutzpah, it all works.

What wins would mean: A substantial reversal for the Grammy voters. Should "Some Nights" take album of the year, it would be the poppiest set to win since George Michael’s "Faith" in 1989. With the exception of Paul Simon, the Grammys have not been kind to fun.’s splashy, garish antecedents. That fun. has gotten all the nominations that it has might mean that the winter is thawing and the industry is broadening its definition of quality beyond the narrow parameters it scrupulously guards. Cheese is an underrated commodity.

Prognosis for a big night: While fun. is the only act to have earned nominations in all four major categories, I doubt voters are comfortable enough with musical naugahyde to let Ruess and his partners run away with the night. The group’s best chance for a major award might be best new artist, but even there, fun. is likely to be outpaced by Frank Ocean.

Jay-Z and Kanye West

Up for: Rap performance, rap/sung collaboration, rap song, short-form music video (multiple nominations, either together or separately, in every category except short-form music video)

What wins would mean: Believe it or not, there aren’t any rappers scheduled to perform during tonight’s broadcast. No matter how you feel about hip-hop, its omission from the telecast confirms that the Grammys are working with a template that’s painfully out of date. Hip-hop is often snubbed at the podium: Last year, hip-hop fans were amazed that voters didn’t even bother to nominate West’s "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy," an ambitious, detailed, masterfully realized set. "Fantasy" took the trophy for best rap album, beating out "Watch the Throne," West’s full-length collaboration with Jay-Z. Once again, the rap categories are stuffed with West and Jay-Z material — sometimes together and sometimes on their own.

Prognosis for a big night: Of course, Jay-Z and West will pick up some hardware at the Grammys — they’re the only rap artists the voters seem to recognize. These categories aren’t given high-profile play on the telecast, so no matter what happens, the show will, once again, give the impression that they are less prominent figures than they really are.

Who he is: The White Stripes didn’t officially call it quits until 2011, but the balloon was leaking helium long before that. During the band’s long twilight, White kept busy with the Dead Weather and the Raconteurs, two groups in which he shared top billing. On "Blunderbuss," he took the reins again, delivering 13 acerbic breakup songs, including a lively cover of "I’m Shakin’," a blues song associated with Little Willie John.

What wins would mean: White has never made any secret of his passion for all things past — he’s much more likely to turn to his collection of 45s for inspiration than he is to anything currently streaming on the internet. His music is scruffy, raw and totally devoid of electronic frippery. A win in the album of the year category for "Blunderbuss" would have traditionalists doing cartwheels. It would also be a victory for instrumentalists everywhere. White is one of the finest electric guitar soloists in contemporary music; he doesn’t use the six-string quite as much on "Blunderbuss" as he did with the Stripes, but he makes every note count. The rest of the music is filled in by his all-female backing band, including the dazzling pianist Brooke Waggoner, who deserves an award all to herself.

Prognosis for a big night: The other four nominees for album of the year have six nominations each. White has three. That should tell you everything you need to know about White’s chances. One day, this brave and eccentric American musical artist is going to get his due. But not today.