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MLB Picks

Surprisingly High-Scoring Game in Store in San Francisco

Our MLB handicapper loves to bet 'over' totals that are in the sixes. This time he comes up with multiple angles as to why this should be the case again as the Rockies visit the Giants on Thursday night.

2017 MLB Record: 14-14-1 (-0.93 Units, -2.62% ROI)

You guys ... again, I just can’t help myself here. When I see a total start with a ‘6’ I will rationalize myself into taking the 'over' no matter what. Such as the case as the Colorado Rockies travel to face the San Francisco Giants on Thursday night. The opening line is sitting at -170 favoring the Giants with Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but more important the listed total has opened at 6.5 runs across the board. The best line for the 'over' looks to be -110 at Heritage. And so starts the rationalization:

San Francisco’s Bullpen Stinks

Bumgarner is good, but he better pitch a complete game if the Giants are to shut out the Rockies in this game. The Giants' bullpen has put up a 5.85 ERA and 1.849 WHIP over its first 20 innings. The walks have been especially bad, with San Francisco’s relievers giving up 13 in those innings through Tuesday. The San Francisco bullpen has blown 2 saves in the first 4 opportunities. The relievers are a liability and will help us get 'over' 6 runs.

Gray Also Has Been Lousy

Starting for the Rockies is Jon Gray, who has not been his best so far. After getting destroyed in Milwaukee in his season opener by giving up 5 runs in just 4 innings (please notice that 5 runs is two less than the 7 we need to win here), Gray pitched OK against the Dodgers last week. He has never beat the Giants, though, with the last game he pitched against them being a 7-2 loss last September. Gray’s swinging-strike rates over his last two starts indicate he is not fooling many batters, and the percentage of batters swinging at balls has also dropped.

Madbum 'Over' Trend Against Colorado

Bumgarner has been a heavy favorite in his last three starts against the Rockies, that much is sure. He’s won 2 out of 3, but the 'over' has cashed every time. Bumgarner can hold his own with the bat, and every game out of his last three with the Rockies has ended up with totals in the double digits. Only one of those games was in Colorado as well – a 10-5 crushing of Rockies souls. Amazingly, Bumgarner already has 2 home runs in his two games played this year. Add in a walk and you have a pitcher batting .400 with a .500 OBP and 1.600 slugging.

The Wind Is Blowing Out

There is a 50% chance of precipitation but a better chance of 15-25 mph winds blowing from the west in San Francisco. Wind coming from the west would be blowing out in San Francisco, so even if it is cold and soggy we could see some more dingers Thursday night. That is the final straw in my internal rationalization.