After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

September

9/24

Marseille2

54%

26%

Toulouse0

20%

MRS

TOU

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.5

0.7

Non-shot xG

3.0

0.7

9/24

Strasbourg1

30%

29%

Nantes2

41%

STRA

NAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.5

Non-shot xG

2.4

0.4

9/24

St Étienne2

45%

29%

Rennes2

26%

STE

REN

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.7

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.5

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.3

9/23

Caen1

62%

24%

Amiens0

14%

CAN

AMI

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.0

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.2

9/23

Metz0

50%

27%

Troyes1

23%

MTZ

TRY

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.8

9/23

Lyon3

66%

20%

Dijon FCO3

14%

LYON

DIJ

Adjusted goals

3.2

3.2

Shot-based xG

3.2

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.0

9/23

Bordeaux3

55%

26%

Guingamp1

19%

BOR

GUI

Adjusted goals

2.6

1.1

Shot-based xG

3.1

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.2

9/23

Montpellier0

10%

17%

PSG0

72%

MNT

PSG

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.2

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.4

2.0

9/22

Lille0

20%

23%

Monaco4

57%

LLE

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

4.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

2.4

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.3

9/22

Nice2

51%

27%

Angers2

22%

NCE

ANG

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.8

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.0

9/17

PSG2

78%

14%

Lyon0

8%

PSG

LYON

Adjusted goals

1.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.0

0.9

Non-shot xG

2.2

0.9

9/17

Angers0

60%

24%

Metz1

16%

ANG

MTZ

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.9

9/17

Rennes0

38%

27%

Nice1

35%

REN

NCE

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.1

9/17

Amiens0

21%

24%

Marseille2

54%

AMI

MRS

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.0

9/16

Nantes1

47%

29%

Caen0

24%

NAN

CAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.8

9/16

Troyes0

37%

28%

Montpellier1

35%

TRY

MNT

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

9/16

Dijon FCO0

41%

28%

St Étienne1

31%

DIJ

STE

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.5

Non-shot xG

2.1

0.9

9/16

Guingamp1

46%

28%

Lille0

26%

GUI

LLE

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.9

0.8

9/16

Monaco3

88%

9%

Strasbourg0

3%

MON

STRA

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.2

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.9

9/15

Toulouse0

37%

29%

Bordeaux1

34%

TOU

BOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.6

9/10

Marseille1

58%

24%

Rennes3

17%

MRS

REN

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.7

2.1

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.3

9/10

Lyon2

65%

21%

Guingamp1

15%

LYON

GUI

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.4

9/10

St Étienne1

43%

30%

Angers1

28%

STE

ANG

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

2.4

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.5

9/9

Troyes0

33%

27%

Toulouse0

40%

TRY

TOU

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.6

9/9

Montpellier0

44%

29%

Nantes1

27%

MNT

NAN

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.9

9/9

Strasbourg0

50%

26%

Amiens1

24%

STRA

AMI

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.5

9/9

Caen2

46%

27%

Dijon FCO1

27%

CAN

DIJ

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.1

9/9

Nice4

22%

22%

Monaco0

55%

NCE

MON

Adjusted goals

3.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.8

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.2

9/8

Metz1

8%

14%

PSG5

77%

MTZ

PSG

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.8

Shot-based xG

0.9

4.2

Non-shot xG

0.6

3.0

9/8

Lille0

36%

28%

Bordeaux0

36%

LLE

BOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.9

2.1

August

8/27

Monaco6

60%

22%

Marseille1

18%

MON

MRS

Adjusted goals

6.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

4.0

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.8

8/27

Angers1

50%

27%

Lille1

22%

ANG

LLE

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.7

8/27

Guingamp2

59%

23%

Strasbourg0

18%

GUI

STRA

Adjusted goals

1.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.0

8/26

Dijon FCO2

44%

27%

Montpellier1

30%

DIJ

MNT

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.9

8/26

Amiens3

20%

24%

Nice0

56%

AMI

NCE

Adjusted goals

2.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.3

8/26

Caen1

51%

27%

Metz0

23%

CAN

MTZ

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.6

8/26

Toulouse3

47%

29%

Rennes2

24%

TOU

REN

Adjusted goals

2.5

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.7

8/26

Bordeaux2

67%

21%

Troyes1

13%

BOR

TRY

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.2

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.7

8/26

Nantes0

29%

25%

Lyon0

45%

NAN

LYON

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.4

8/25

PSG3

85%

11%

St Étienne0

4%

PSG

STE

Adjusted goals

2.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.7

8/20

PSG6

85%

12%

Toulouse2

3%

PSG

TOU

Adjusted goals

5.0

1.7

Shot-based xG

3.3

0.3

Non-shot xG

3.1

0.7

8/20

Marseille1

55%

25%

Angers1

19%

MRS

ANG

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

2.1

1.1

8/20

Lille0

52%

26%

Caen2

21%

LLE

CAN

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.9

8/19

Troyes0

36%

27%

Nantes1

38%

TRY

NAN

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.5

8/19

Montpellier1

60%

23%

Strasbourg1

17%

MNT

STRA

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.9

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.6

8/19

Nice2

53%

25%

Guingamp0

22%

NCE

GUI

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.3

8/19

St Étienne3

68%

22%

Amiens0

10%

STE

AMI

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.0

1.1

Non-shot xG

0.8

2.0

8/19

Rennes2

50%

27%

Dijon FCO2

23%

REN

DIJ

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.3

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.3

8/19

Lyon3

56%

23%

Bordeaux3

21%

LYON

BOR

Adjusted goals

3.1

2.5

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.3

0.9

8/18

Metz0

16%

19%

Monaco1

65%

MTZ

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.0

2.4

8/13

Guingamp0

14%

18%

PSG3

67%

GUI

PSG

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.8

Shot-based xG

0.1

1.9

Non-shot xG

0.1

3.9

8/13

Dijon FCO1

19%

20%

Monaco4

60%

DIJ

MON

Adjusted goals

1.1

4.2

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.6

8/13

Strasbourg3

25%

25%

Lille0

50%

STRA

LLE

Adjusted goals

1.9

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.1

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.8

1.1

8/12

Amiens0

24%

25%

Angers2

51%

AMI

ANG

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.5

8/12

Caen0

41%

28%

St Étienne1

31%

CAN

STE

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.7

8/12

Toulouse1

47%

28%

Montpellier0

26%

TOU

MNT

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.9

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

8/12

Bordeaux2

61%

22%

Metz0

17%

BOR

MTZ

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.2

8/12

Nantes0

33%

26%

Marseille1

41%

NAN

MRS

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.1

8/11

Rennes1

30%

25%

Lyon2

45%

REN

LYON

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.0

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.9

8/11

Nice1

66%

20%

Troyes2

13%

NCE

TRY

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.9

8/6

Marseille3

61%

22%

Dijon FCO0

17%

MRS

DIJ

Adjusted goals

3.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.6

8/6

Angers2

42%

28%

Bordeaux2

31%

ANG

BOR

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.8

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.1

8/6

Lille3

46%

27%

Nantes0

26%

LLE

NAN

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.0

1.2

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.9

8/5

Troyes1

34%

27%

Rennes1

39%

TRY

REN

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

2.0

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.7

8/5

Montpellier1

49%

25%

Caen0

26%

MNT

CAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.6

8/5

Metz1

41%

26%

Guingamp3

33%

MTZ

GUI

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.8

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.5

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.0

8/5

St Étienne1

38%

27%

Nice0

34%

STE

NCE

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.3

8/5

Lyon4

80%

13%

Strasbourg0

7%

LYON

STRA

Adjusted goals

3.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.7

8/5

PSG2

94%

5%

Amiens0

1%

PSG

AMI

Adjusted goals

1.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.0

0.3

Non-shot xG

3.3

0.3

8/4

Monaco3

72%

18%

Toulouse2

10%

MON

TOU

Adjusted goals

3.2

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.3

See all&blacktriangledown;

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

relegatedrel.

qualify for UCLqualify for UCL

win Ligue 1win league

PSG19 pts

90.5

3.0

0.4

30.0

5.4

2.5

+79

96

<1%

>99%

85%

Monaco18 pts

79.7

2.5

0.8

24.9

6.1

7.0

+47

81

<1%

84%

13%

Lyon12 pts

71.0

2.1

0.9

18.3

10.3

9.4

+21

65

<1%

30%

<1%

Bordeaux15 pts

68.1

1.8

0.8

17.9

10.9

9.2

+16

65

<1%

27%

<1%

Marseille13 pts

68.3

1.9

0.8

18.0

8.7

11.3

+12

63

<1%

22%

<1%

Nice10 pts

66.1

1.8

0.9

16.2

8.7

13.1

+9

57

1%

11%

<1%

St Étienne14 pts

58.5

1.5

0.9

14.8

10.5

12.7

+0

55

2%

7%

<1%

Nantes13 pts

57.5

1.4

0.9

14.4

9.5

14.1

-5

53

2%

4%

<1%

Angers8 pts

61.5

1.6

0.9

12.8

13.2

12.0

+2

52

3%

4%

<1%

Guingamp9 pts

57.5

1.5

1.0

13.9

8.2

15.9

-6

50

5%

3%

<1%

Caen12 pts

55.7

1.4

0.9

13.3

8.4

16.3

-8

48

6%

2%

<1%

Toulouse7 pts

56.8

1.4

0.9

12.8

9.6

15.6

-8

48

7%

2%

<1%

Rennes6 pts

58.4

1.5

1.0

12.0

11.1

14.8

-4

47

8%

2%

<1%

Montpellier8 pts

56.0

1.4

0.9

11.8

10.6

15.7

-8

46

9%

1%

<1%

Dijon FCO5 pts

55.3

1.6

1.2

11.4

9.7

16.9

-14

44

13%

<1%

<1%

Lille5 pts

54.1

1.4

1.0

10.5

10.3

17.2

-16

42

18%

<1%

<1%

Troyes8 pts

46.9

1.3

1.2

9.5

9.7

18.8

-22

38

28%

<1%

<1%

Metz3 pts

49.1

1.3

1.2

9.5

8.0

20.5

-25

37

34%

<1%

<1%

Strasbourg4 pts

43.0

1.3

1.4

7.7

8.4

22.0

-34

31

55%

<1%

<1%

Amiens6 pts

39.0

1.1

1.3

7.9

7.5

22.6

-35

31

57%

<1%

<1%

Forecast from

season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the Champions League — eight teams total — will join the Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.