Uncertainty and Value Analysis in the Selection of Dam Modification Alternative

Objectives and attributes were decided by the dam and watershed requirements, value judgments of decision makers, quantified trade-offs between different attribute values, and technical judgments provided the uncertainty distributions of attributes for each modification alternative. The value judgments and the technical judgments were then incorporated into a rational methodology to develop a multiattribute utility function. This function was applied to each alternative. The expected value of this function helped to rank the alternatives in order of preference for selection. The general method developed in this paper is applicable in problems of risk analyses, dam safety, and decisions under conditions of uncertainty.