Ford

The U.S. automotive market, indeed the entire global market has seen a shift away from cars to utility vehicles. Cars, while valued for their practicality and reasonable cost are yielding the market to utility vehicles, which offer an excellent combination of passenger space and cargo capacity. They’re also more profitable to automakers.

As such, manufacturers will soon lay the ax to several car models as the market shift continues. Soon, you may walk into a new car dealership and find no more than one or two car models available as utility vehicles, pickup trucks and an assortment of crossover-like conveyances take over.

Here’s our list of threatened models based on year-to-date sales figures through October 2018:

Chevrolet: Sonic and Impala

The bow-tie brand’s weakest models are its subcompact Sonic (hatchback and sedan) and its full-size Impala sedan. The two models were introduced or updated in 2012 and 2014, respectively.

Like its top competitor’s Chevrolet’s best-selling vehicle is not a car.

Sonic sales are down 25.7 percent and will struggle to top 22,000 units this year. The Impala numbers aren’t as bad with Chevrolet selling 43,953 units, down 13.38 percent. We think the midsize Malibu sedan (-23.88%) will hang on for a while longer, mostly because it is rather new. The compact Cruze (-26.52%) numbers are way down too, but there is life left. Besides, it shares its platform with the plug-in Volt (-13.72%).

As for the Corvette (-21.23%) and Camaro (-25.87%), both models will soldier on with a mid-engined Corvette waiting in the wings. We can’t see Chevrolet killing the Camaro all over again, although sales now trail both the Mustang and Challenger.

Dodge and Chrysler: A Vulnerable Trio

Dodge and Chrysler are FCA’s two domestic car brands and both are hanging on. Dodge dropped the compact Dart sedan and Chrysler the midsize 200 sedans in recent years. What’s left is a trio of sporty models: The Dodge Challenger (+0.07%), Dodge Charger (-11.98%), and the Chrysler 300 (-12.83%).

A succession of Hellcat models has kept the Charger and Challenger alive. But for how long?

The Chrysler is the most vulnerable of the three and will likely be replaced by a utility vehicle. We think Dodge will hang on to the Challenger and Charger for a few more years, making updates to keep these dated models fresh. But the tide is changing and we could see the Charger killed off first with the Challenger following a few years later. The Jeep and Ram brands are the big profit centers for FCA, thus every other brand is vulnerable.

Ford: Only the Mustang Remains

Ford has not been coy about its car models. Every single model except for the Mustang (-0.93%) is threatened. Already, the subcompact Fiesta (+1.05%) and compact Focus (-18.46%) are gone or will soon be gone from the U.S. market.

The midsize Fusion (-21.77%) and the full-size Taurus (-2.49%) will be the next to go, although one or more names may be affixed to a future crossover model. Yes, we’ve heard rumors of a four-door Mustang appearing, but all that noise is simply speculation.

The Mustang “brand” is a blue oval success story.

Honda: Staying the Course

Sales of the compact Civic (-10.32%) and midsize Accord (-14.16%) may be down, but they’re not out. Indeed, Honda may very well sell as many as 250,000 Accords and 300,000 Civics this year. Even if sales continue to slide, both models are safe.

As for the subcompact Fit (-14.59%), sales aren’t likely to top 40,000 units this year. That said, Honda may keep the Fit around and not offer an update for some time. This automaker also seems committed to its Clarity and Insight electrified vehicles, though sales remain modest.

Nissan: Maxima on a Short Leash

Like Honda and Toyota, Nissan will keep its compact Sentra (-0.34%) and midsize Altima (-16.64%) sedans. The Altima is new for 2019 and will offer available all-wheel drive for the first time. Although the Sentra was last updated in 2013, we think a new model will eventually roll out.

The Maxima is one of Nissan’s strongest names, but it may not have long-term staying power.

What might not survive is the Maxima sedan (-36.18%), although it shares its underpinnings with the Altima. Like other flagship models, the Maxima may no longer have a place in the Nissan product line.

Also threatened is the subcompact Versa (-29.87%), the sporty 370Z (-24.44%) and the high-performance GT-R (-2.49%). The last two will likely sell just 3,000 and 500 copies, respectively. Those aren’t sustainable numbers no matter how you slice it.

Toyota: Several Models Might Get 86’d

Imagine Toyota without the compact Corolla (-11.35%) and its midsize Camry (-6.94%) if you would. That’s hard to fathom, right? Well, both models sell slightly better than their Honda counterparts, so they’ll be around for some time. Indeed, a new Camry arrived in 2018, followed by an all-new Corolla hatchback in 2019 (we’re expecting a new Corolla sedan in 2020).

Toyota’s Corolla is hanging around and includes this sporty hatchback model.

The threatened Toyota models include the subcompact Yaris (-37.05%) and the hybrid Toyota Prius c. We doubt the Toyota 86 (-41.71%) will survive for much longer, although the nearly identical Subaru BRZ may soldier on. As for the full-size Avalon (+6.38%), it is also all new and gaining market share in a shrinking segment. We consider the Avalon the safest model in its segment by far.

Volkswagen: A Passe Passat?

Volkswagen has been undergoing intense changes these past few years following its diesel scandal. New or updated crossovers are taking a bigger slice of the sales pie and are driving sales. But models such as the subcompact Golf (-38.08%), compact Jetta (-32.77%), and the midsize Passat (-33.78%) are falling out of favor.

We think the Golf and Jetta will hang on, but the Tennessee-built Passat may give up its assembly line space to one or more new (and electrified) models planned. That transition may take a few years to complete, however.

Hyundai and Kia: Opportunity Lurks

Hyundai and Kia are joined at the hip, although the two Korean automakers largely operate as separate concerns. Hyundai supplies the vehicle platforms, then leaves each brand (plus Genesis) to decide how they will go.

In recent years, we’ve seen Hyundai do away with the Equus, Genesis, and Genesis coupe, along with the Azera sedan. Some of those models were replaced by Genesis brand vehicles when Hyundai rolled out its luxury brand.

Hyundai has also expanded its crossover offerings while bringing the electrified Ioniq (+37.69) to the market. We’re not sure the subcompact Accent (-51.12%) will survive, given that a new model rolled out in 2018. The compact Elantra (+4.06%) is performing well, but the midsize Sonata (-24.83%) has certainly seen better days. The sporty Veloster returned after a one-year hiatus and like the Elantra, it seems safe. Still, we think Hyundai will keep its car line in place as other automakers cut back.

Kia Rio sales are down despite a new model on hand.

As for the Kia, nearly the same can be said about it as we have said about Hyundai. Further, Kia continues to update even its slow sellers, such as the full-size Cadenza (-11.07%) and the luxury K900 (-26.14%).

A new subcompact Rio (+44.67) is performing well, although the compact Forte (-18.68%) and the midsize Optima (-5.74%) are not. Still, looking at Kia’s track record, we doubt any model will go away in the near future. In all, we think Hyundai and Kia may see opportunity in segments soon to be vacated by its competitors.

Looking Ahead

The shift to crossovers is, indeed, playing a large part in driving each brand’s portfolio. Two other factors, electrification, and autonomous vehicles, will play increasingly significant roles as we move forward.

The question not asked is this one: will manufacturers permanently adjust their portfolios? They may say yes, but market conditions can and do always change.

Witness Ford’s insistence a few years back that the Ranger pickup truck wouldn’t return. Beginning in 2019 we’ll see a new Ranger. And as for the Fiesta and Focus, both models will serve other markets and could at some point return to the U.S. if demand warrants it.

Do you remember the Toyota-Isuzu partnership? Probably not, as these two Japanese automakers are at polar opposites in their involvement in the U.S. market.

Indeed, Toyota is one of the top brands in the U.S., while Isuzu hasn’t sold a vehicle here since 2009. Certainly, Toyota dominates in several things, including hybrid technology, but it is weak in a few areas, including diesel engineering, which happens to be one of Isuzu’s strengths.

This Fiat 124 Spider is the result of an agreement FCA made with Mazda.

Toyota, Isuzu Forge a Partnership

Thus, in 2006, Toyota and Isuzu signed an agreement to utilize each other’s resources in diesel development, a partnership that made sense at the time. For instance, with fuel prices still high and soon to reach higher still, the original agreement allowed both manufacturers to strengthen their diesel involvement. But as the ensuing years have attested, changes in fuel prices, customer tastes and regulatory concerns have changed things considerably. Diesel demand is down and likely to continue to fall.

So, Toyota did this month what makes perfect sense: it officially dissolved the partnership. Further, Toyota will sell its 50 million shares of Isuzu stock, which gave the company a 5.89-percent stake in Isuzu. Moving forward, the two companies will continue to collaborate on projects feasible to both.

In a press release, Toyota cited the automotive industry’s “sweeping, once-in-a-century changes” as the company’s reason for concentrating on other matters. For instance, the two automakers are likely to continue collaborating on other areas where they are strong. For Isuzu, that would be commercial vehicles. And for Toyota, that’s always been passenger vehicles, this automaker’s mainstay.

This Scion iA (now Toyota Yaris iA) is the result of a partnership between Toyota and Mazda.

Toyota and Mazda

Toyota has long collaborated or held stakes in junior Japanese manufacturers, including Mazda, Daihatsu and Subaru. In 2015, Mazda and Toyota announced a partnership whereby Mazda later supplied a vehicle to Toyota based on the Mazda 2. Originally sold as the 2016 Scion iA, this model is currently marketed as the Toyota Yaris iA now that the Scion brand has dissolved.

As for Mazda, the automaker is certain to benefit from Toyota hybrid technology, although as of this writing we haven’t seen such a model in the U.S. market. Toyota might also aid Mazda in all things hydrogen, yet another Toyota strength.

Auto Industry Buzzword: Collaboration

Industry collaboration is growing and will likely expand further as automakers deal with two matters that Toyota described as the “sweeping, once-in-a-century changes.” Specifically, these involve vehicle electrification and autonomy.

In June 2018, General Motors and Honda announced the second component of their earlier agreement, which builds on a joint venture to produce hydrogen fuel cell systems as early as 2020. The latest agreement covers electric-vehicle batteries, which is something GM will supply to Honda, according to Bloomberg. By doing so, GM will lower its own costs as both manufacturers ramp production of electric vehicles.

Automakers are also collaborating with tech companies, such as FCA with Waymo.

For Honda, the agreement with GM enables the company to forge a partnership as its chief domestic competitors build their own. We already looked at Toyota’s stake in Japanese manufacturers. Nissan, however, has the most aggressive alliance going as the company has a significant stake in Renault and Renault has a significant stake in Nissan. In 2015, Nissan also purchased a controlling interest in Mitsubishi. The three companies currently form an alliance that sells more vehicles worldwide than any manufacturer.

Other areas of collaboration include GM and Ford working on automatic transmissions for the second time this millennium. In the early 2000s, the two manufacturers partnered to develop the six-speed automatic transmissions which were common in Ford and GM vehicles for more than a decade. Later, the two companies developed new nine- and 10-speed automatic transmissions, which are widely used today.

Getting it Done

So, although Toyota and Isuzu have officially ended their partnership, the collaborations will continue. As with many such efforts, the agreement is usually temporary and is sometimes fluid. As long as both parties see a benefit in working together, then these will continue. After all, lowering costs is the dictum of our day. Finally, consumers will benefit too, as those savings are passed on, making new technologies affordable for most.