THE LOWDOWN

This is the biggest heavyweight fight since Anthony Joshua vs Wladimir Klitschko back in April 2017, as Deontay Wilder takes on Tyson Fury with Wilder’s WBC strap on the line, but more importantly, the winner will be set up for the coveted shot against Anthony Joshua. Let’s take a closer look at these powerhouses:

On paper, this is one of the most competitive heavyweight bouts we have seen in a while and one of the most exciting with two polarizing characters with contrasting skillsets. They also share intriguing common attributes - they are charismatic, brash, boast similar statures and are extremely talented, sharing an outstanding unbeaten record.

So, everything is at stake for these bruisers as well as a lot of pride that has been displayed in the build-up and promotion for the fight. They both carry unwavering confidence and why wouldn’t they with their unblemished records and plethora of titles, but who should be going into this fight as the favourite?

Wilder is the current WBC champion with 13 more wins but Fury has achieved more in terms of titles, but let’s analyse the calibre of their last 25 opponents by comparing their total amount of wins and average win percentage before they fought Wilder and Fury:

As you can see, Wilder’s opponents have had more wins and better records which may suggest he has fought better fighters. However, local scenes can differ in standard so it’s best to focus on their more recent fights when they have both fought legitimate contenders.

Wilder’s most recent fight against Luis Ortiz was his most impressive win to date. Ortiz was unbeaten and the most dangerous opponent Wilder has fought but what was so impressive is that he finally tasted adversity. Wilder got hurt but fought back to win the fight via TKO in the 10th
round.

However, Fury’s win over Klitschko was a different kind of accomplishment and an unforgettable performance. At the time, Klitschko was on a streak of 22 straight wins and regarded as one of the best heavyweights of all time. He outmatched everybody with a tactical game plan behind a punishing jab but Fury beat him at his own game and out-boxed the technician.

However, that fight was over three years ago and it is not as if Fury took time off to rest or rehab injuries. His absence - largely down to his mental health issues - saw him completely lose his shape. Fortunately, he is healthy at the moment and has had two tune-up fights this year, but is he ready to take on Wilder? The Bronze Bomber is a monster and is also in the form of his life so let’s take a closer look at their last ten fights:

Their flawless records and knockout ratios only helps to build the anticipation for this fight but what is important to consider here are Fury’s two fights in 2018. If he fought Wilder after his lay-off, the odds would be completely stacked against him but his fights against Sefer Seferi and Francesco Pianeta have given him a chance to get back in shape and gain some confidence; in fact, he prolonged his fight with Pianeta just to get more rounds under his belt.

Brawler vs Boxer?

Wilder is a knockout artist. He throws wild bombs and relies on his devastating knockout power as opposed to any kind of technique but this has clearly served him well with 39 knockouts to his name. However, the abandonment of technique stretches to his defence which is unsustainable at the highest level. He got away with it against Ortiz but he cannot afford to be reckless against Fury.

Despite his seismic frame, Fury is a technician and incredibly cerebral. He has great movement and a Fury in his prime would be a terrible match-up for Wilder. He has the defence to avoid the haymakers and the speed to consistently counter and wear Wilder down with his powerful jab.

So, do the stats suggest it will be an early knockout for Wilder or a decision for Fury? Let’s revisit their opponents to see how long each fight has lasted and the method of victory:

Despite Fury’s reputation as a tactician, he finishes fights and quickly with his average fight lasting just over six rounds. Wilder, as expected with his 98% knockout rate, has made short work of the majority of his opponents but there is not much between them in terms of average fight time.

THE PREDICTION

Whether Fury can execute a game plan will depend on what kind of shape he is in, as Wilder is an athletic beast who will put relentless pressure on the Englishman. He is also gaining maturity in every fight and will surely approach this with more caution than he ever has done before.

The key for Wilder is energy utilisation. If he goes for the early "Hail Mary" he will end up gassing himself out as Fury has the fight IQ to manage the onslaught, so if the American tires, Fury will pepper him at will. The key for Fury is cardio and mental endurance which he displayed perfectly against Klitschko, but he has no choice but to respect the power of Wilder as he can shut the lights off at any moment.

‘The Gypsy King’ is as confident as ever but whether his body can keep up with his brain is a different matter, and there is never any room for error against ‘The Bronze Bomber’. However, class may be the difference with Fury weathering the storm and landing with an overwhelming output, consistently countering to wear Wilder down and clinch a decision.

Winner: Fury via Decision

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