Energy Shortages, the Monsoon, India and Pakistan

Posted by Heading Out on July 25, 2009 - 9:42am

The international impacts from a lack of sufficient power are often missed when debate swirls about the price of oil and gas, and the need to control emissions as part of an effort to change climate dynamics. There is a site, Energy Shortage, which provides information on the different parts of the world where energy shortages are occurring, both as short-term events, such as the power outage in Belize over the weekend a week ago, (though with more forecast) and the longer term problems that I have discussed before with power shortages between demand and supply. This impacts countries such as India which currently has a gap of between 15,000 and 20,000 MW between what is needed and what is available. Pakistan is currently seeing both problems, a short-term (though now over 48-hours) blackout in Karachi, because of torrential downpours due to the monsoon, and a longer term national shortage of more than 3,000 MW.

Interactive map corresponding to this image can be found on Energy Shortage website.

Part of the problem in this part of the world is that it relies on the rains of the monsoon season to provide hydroelectric power.

Thus far, in India, the monsoon has not been strong, though the converse is the case in Pakistan, as the situation in Karachi demonstrates. There the rain has been sufficient to restart operations at one of the hydroelectric plants, that at Mangla, which is producing 220 MW, and expects to double that in a few days. Overall the national picture has improved over the last year, it being reported that while the overall shortfall was 4,633 MW last year, the drop to the current levels shows a significant improvement. Thus load shedding of 10 – 12 hours last year, has fallen to 8 – 10 hours this year.

It has been a heart-breaking June, with the fabled wet wind from the southwest absent in most regions normally on its itinerary. The northern plains are bone dry, with temperatures regularly touching the mid-40s in centigrade. They are the last port of call for the complex, mobile weather system which usually arrives there in July after drenching the vast swathes of peninsular India in June. But the monsoon has not even kept this date, for a number of reasons. . . . . . . By the end of June, the rains were estimated at 54% below normal levels in these parts, with the deficit reaching 75% in central India . . . . . . According to data collected since the 1940s, "normal" is 890 millimeters for the whole season.

The impact on the country is still developing:

After the predictions were made public, the first knee-jerk reaction came from Punjab. The state banned the use of air-conditioners in government offices, boards and corporations - despite the sweltering heat - so eight hours of uninterrupted power could be supplied to the farm sector. . . . . The monsoon, which runs from June through September, is such a big thing in India that a bad year has the potential to topple governments. Even now, 60% of Indian farmland is dependent on rains, not irrigation. It goes beyond the economic, the imprint goes into the very socio-cultural make-up of a nation.

It is, however, not only food production that is now threatened:

For instance, the Tehri hydroelectric power station in Uttarakhand supplies power to New Delhi and its hinterland. The water level in its reservoirs has shrunk to dangerously low levels - 741 meters against a normal level of 830 meters during monsoons. The Bhakra dam, the biggest hydroelectric project in northern India, has water flowing in from the mountains. Its reservoir levels remain lower than they were last season.

The problems extend to Bangalore, which is the hub of much of the IT in India, but where the situation is little better:

Monday saw the worst power situation so far since the start of the monsoon in early June. Two hydroelectric power stations stopped generation for a few hours to conserve water and one unit of the thermal power station at Raichur in north Karnataka tripped, plunging many areas in Bangalore and the state into darkness in the evening.

Added to the misery of Bangaloreans was a sudden downpour, accompanied by heavy winds, lightning and thunder which too disrupted connections in many areas of the city.

That heavy rain marked the onset of what many are now hoping will be a regular series of rains that will provide the water that the nation needs. However the rains have come over a month late and this is a problem since the monsoon provides up to 80% of India’s rainfall. The hope is that when the season is over the shortfall may be as little as 7% of the average, with serious concern only arising if the shortfall rises to 20%.

It is however, not just with rain that the country is beginning to fall short. More than half of India’s power generation comes from coal, and the stocks for the power plants are reportedly down some 50% from normal.

NEW DELHI, July 13 (Reuters) - Coal stocks with power plants in India halved from normal levels to 11 million tonnes at July 6, with many thermal plants facing uncomfortable supply positions, junior power minister Bharatsinh Solanki said.

He said 31 power stations had a critical supply condition, having a coal stock of less than 7 days, and of these 10 plants were "supercritical" having a coal stock of less than 4 days.

It is light of this situation that the recent friction reported between Secretary Clinton and the Indian Government must be born in mind. India intends to construct something on the order of 78.7 gigawatts of new power plant in the next five years, much of which will be fueled by coal. The country needs the power, and there is little other than coal that can be expected to meet this demand. As a result there was the following report:

A July 19 event intended to showcase cooperation on clean energy technology at a “green” building outside New Delhi spotlighted the debate. The Indian environment minister said India resents demands from the U.S. for adoption of legally binding caps on carbon emissions.

“There is simply no case for the pressure” considering India produces among the lowest per capita emissions in the world and 500 million of its citizens have no access to commercial energy, Minister Jairam Ramesh told Clinton during a closed-door discussion that a reporter was allowed to observe.

Let us hope that the monsoon brings enough rain that this ends up being a problem that the Indian government does not have to think about in the next three months.

The United States is getting so much of it tech support from India now, it is important that they have enough energy to keep everything going.

When I look at Energy Export Databrowser, I find that India's oil and natural gas imports have been growing rapidly. This image shows oil consumption, production, and imports.

Hydroelectric is smaller quite a bit smaller in supply, and even last year was declining in quantity.

India at least has some of its own coal, but even that they need to import.

Australia is a huge exporter of coal. Under the Kyoto rules, its coal exports to the developing world count against those countries. Only the CO2 emitted in coal production counts against Australia (or the US, if we export ours). Australia needs the money from its coal exports, to pay for its oil imports.

1. Some of this seems unfair. Should we be blaming India or Australia or no one, as the developing nations try to burn more coal?

2. What sustainable path does India really have? Ramping up imports of oil and natural gas looks impossible, in a world of declining production?

3. What does this say about long term sustainability of US tech support?

Coal exports to places like India are a massive blind spot in Australia's token commitment to Kyoto. Now China wants its own Australian coal mines leading to a conservative backlash by farmers on the affected landhttp://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2009/s2628992.htm
India in particular needs hard coking coal for its steel industry which may be more difficult to import from elsewhere than thermal coal. India also excluded itself from Australian uranium by refusing to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

According to some India's population may outgrow China's eventually reaching 1.5 bn. Both China and India claim their coal use is just catching up with the West. Since I think the 'bottom billion' in both China and India have no hope of enjoying the happy motoring lifestyle perhaps we should deem their middle class carrying capacity to be say 300m apiece.

If say Australia's Great Barrier Reef was permanently damaged by global warming then I doubt India and other countries could rely on coal imports from Australia. I see no easy answer.

Assuming that there is both a technological infrastructure and a means to support and power it within the confines of the USA it can and will be done by Americans here in the USA.

I was a manager for a call center in Florida about five years ago and we did tech support for computer companies, networking services, cell phones, DSL and internet related services to name a few of the services we offered.

I am quite sure that there a currently plenty of unemployed Americans who would be more than happy to get paid for doing this work. Not only that but they are fluent in the nuances of the local culture and can speak English without a heavy Indian accent. BTW Indians' Spanish is *REALLY*lousy. (Disclaimer: I have nothing against Indians trying to earn a decent living)

I have read somewhat recently of very bad problems with agriculture in India due to the monsoons or lack thereof.

The drilling to tap into the ground water is about over as they must go deeper and deeper and deeper chasing the water lower and lower and now can't afford the drilling costs.

The outlook some several weeks ago that I read gave a very bleak outlook. Very bleak. This is in the region of India where almost all their food production is.

It might have been on a farmers forum where I found the link.

Our corn here in WKY is rather poor. I pulled an ear that had the silk turning black already..From a field of commercial corn. #2 yellow dent.

The kernels were extremely small. The tasselling is almost over. The pollen is falling. I asked a big farmer yesterday how the corn was looking. He said it will make very little overall.

This field I checked was planted quite late due to the huge number of rains we had during planting season.

I hear though that the main corn belt, not counting Illinois, was bringing in a possible bumper crop. The reality is not yet known at this time though.

Soybeans do look worthwhile.

But the CBOT prices keep on dropping and dropping. With the basis figured in Sept Corn looks around $2.60 and may fall further. At this price many may break even due to such high input costs.

-btw I checked all the nut trees I could find locally. There are NO pecans and NO walnuts.And I just now walked out and checked the 200 hundred year old White Oak in the backyard. There ARE NO ACORNS. Not a one.

This I am afraid means a huge die off of most of our animal life here in my region. No nuts at all. I haven't check the hickories but I expect the same.

Airdale-NO NUTS, means NO fodder, no food. The gray immature squirrels are everywhere, most on the blacktops eating the yellow paint off the lane markers, for minerals I suppose. They will surely begin dying off soon. From a bumper crop of gray squirrels to none.

Airdale--
India is bumping up against the wall, especially with water issues (which will soon be food issues).
I see India as the first big society to deal with the crash, and the results will be obvious, if one peaks into the past on this subcontinent.

Due to the effects of the climate here we have had three years of very difficult weather related events.

The last was in January 25th, when a massive ice storm, the worst environmental disaster to strike Ky since the 1812 earthquake.Declared a federal disaster and National Guard called out.

Before that the remnants of both Katrina and Ike created more devastation. Then the very very wet spring of 2007.Then a very low freezing event in late spring in 2007 caused huge problems.

Flooding, freezing, straight line winds of near 100mph, massive ice storm. All this has played a part in the devastation here.

Now we had a very very late spring planting season due to heavy rains.

So there are zero nuts on the trees. The trees are fighting back and trying to thrive but with problems.

As to the wildlife vanishing I noticed this before those events. They just made it worse.

When animal life or plant life is threatened then IMO they tend to overproduce in order to survive their species. But it takes a huge loss to do this so the species are now depleted in many ways.

This area used to be extremely abundant in flora and fauna and we are very well supplied by water.

What I see here I report on TOD as a harbinger of what may possibly be happening or starting to happen elsewhere across this country.

Insect life is most disturbing. Very disturbing and started before the ice storm.

How it applies to the topic of this essay is not direct but tangential in that what is happening in India is most likely going to happen here as well.

Soil depeleted. Wildlife habitat going away. Extreme weather.

I happen to live in close proximity to much of this and so see it every day and over years..since 1985 when I brought this farm of my ancestors.

India is worrisome for two reasons. We sold them a bill of goods on the Green Revolution. Exactly what we do with our agriculture here. They report that it has devastated them in several ways...Sharon Astyk's website once pointed this out long ago.

Since we are going into GMO and full blown genetics as well as huge confinement feeding of livestock...I think we are starting to see the risks and what other countries are now experiencing.

I quite bluntly see all over this nation, a decline in nature. Accelerating as well. From N. Carolina, to Illinois and to Oklahoma, thru Missouri and Tennessee. I see the 'signs'.

These are areas I sometimes travel thru. Speak to farmers there sometimes. Read farmers blog and web sites.

Does that help or answer your queries? I could be wrong. I hope I am. But I don't think so. Of course there will be 'refuge' areas where BigAg is not so prevasive. Where the weather has not been so extreme as our. We are in a different pattern than the rest of Ky.

All ours comes via the Mississippi or tends to follow that flow northwards.

Got it, thanks for the reply. I thought maybe this had something to do with the die-off of pollinators such as honeybees, but if I understand correctly it is due primarily to extreme weather events. Either way it seems to be one indicator among many of our ongoing ecological overshoot.

We visited Kentucky to install a bronze in Springfield, and took a day to drive to Hodgenville, then flew back out of Louisville. We saw the cabin Lincoln was born in near Hodegenville.

The ice storm you mention was evident everywhere we travelled in Ky. So many cracked, broken and fallen trees and that was many months after the ice storm. In California we see a lot of wildlife were we live, with deer, various birds, varments of all sorts, although the numbers have dropped, but we didn't see even one wild animal in Ky, and only small birds. We saw no birds of prey. Maybe we were in the wrong place at the wrong time, or they are mostly gone due to the weather events you mentioned, but it was disturbing. Aside from that there are so many rivers and creeks in Ky. It looks like the type of region one would expect to see chalk full of wildlife.

One particular disturbing oddity here where we live in northern Cal. is the absence of flying bugs, like bees, lady bugs, butterflies, dragon flies, moths, gnats, etc. Over the years we've lived here the numbers have dropped precipitously and now we only get the occasional moth at night, or the occasional buzz of a few bees in a tree. I don't get it, but it is worrisome.

I wonder if the loss of wildlife, small and large is an overlooked news story.

You were near the eastern edge of the storms effect. It was far far worse more to the west of that area. Far worse.

The nighttime insects you mention.

No longer do I notice night time flying insects hovering near lights. They are simply NOT THERE.

Lincoln. When I lived in Lawrenceburg, Anderson Cty, I used to sit in a pew in church that was contributed to the church by the ancestors of Lincolns wife. Or so I was informed. There was a lot of nearby history in that area.

The Indians are most definitely up the creek w/o a paddle if the figures I have seen on thier ground water situation are accurate-and I don't have any particular reason to doubt the figures.

Suppose we all had to turn of our ac just the farmers could run thier griund water pumps flat out?

They are almost surely only one drought large scale from draconian rationing and two in a row?

Entirely hopeless .Millions will starve unless the rest of the world bails them out.I'm not sure the world can anymore ,or if the will to do so exists,given the state of the economy.

As to the conditions around your home,they don't seem to be rebounding ,do they?

And around here,basically the same kind of climate and all,we are seeing more and more signs of decline,which I have hesitated to mention until now.

We too have a dearth of lightning bugs,and not even as many Jap beettles as usual for the last few years.

OBVIOUSLY not as many night flying insects,judging fron the count around lights,and very few bats.

The gray squirrels are starving here too-coming out of the woods and taking grain spread in the open for our chickens.

no quail.period.

But many many deer,some turkeys,probably fewer than normal.

Unreal numbers of ladybugs.they get into the house by the thousands in the autumn.

Coyotes were plentiful a couple of years ago,scarce now.

Groundhogs recovering from near zero two years ago.

Raccoons big fat fiesty and so plentiful they are no fun to hunt anymore,it's too easy to find and tree them.

Frogs of all sorts in big trouble.populations seem to be up and down but definitely down overall,especially this year.

honey bees kept well away from sprayed crops die off about as often as the ones plunked in the middle of the most heavily sprayed areas.

a new bug is defoliating the black locoust ,sometimes twice in a season. The trees that are in good spots,well watered,are surviving,but older trees in the woods competeing for water and sun are dying off fast.And thats the only plentiful species we have that is truly decay resistant and therefore well suited for fence posts,etc.

We are commercial orchardists,peaches are our second crop,but we went out and bought a half a bushel today for the table.Frost got them.Had enough cherries for a few pies,excess rain,should have sold enough to pay a lot of bills.

Now a druught and buying gasoline to irrigate gardens not located where the gravity system goes-it will reach those spots next year if I am able to lay the pipe this winter.

The weather here over the last century or so never been so VARIABLE as it has for the last ten years or so.

We aren't setting many records or seeing definite trends,except to drier weather, but it gets harder to farm every year.

I also think that the lack of water for farming purposes would be bigger than for hydro purposes;
one of the taglines which I have been attaching to my emails has been (from the article titled "Feeding Billions, A Grain at a Time"):
--
[A farmer in India] says he now has to pump water from 300 feet below the surface, compared with 70 feet 10 years ago. (Wall Street Journal, July 28-29, 2007, p. A.1)
--
In several farming areas water tables are being "mined" at an unsustainable rate to allow for production of wet crops in dry areas. I feel that this could be a hidden danger to countries like India which have traditionally relied on wells and bores to provide water. What would a large city like Mumbai do if they run completely out of water? ("The city corporation ... [said] one lake has enough water to last for the next three weeks, while two others have reserves for about two months.")

Both the water and agriculture issues are on the US Intelligence community radar screen however it seems that they still doesn't get the synergistic effect of the energy issue along with the EROEI and ELM impacts.

National Intelligence Council
(NIC) has published their research efforts on the national security implications of climate change to India and several other countries/regions of the world (China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States). The targeted time frame is to 2030

…Climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within India and from neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Refugee flows from other South Asian states are also possible. Internal migrations will mainly be from rural areas into India’s cities, which are ill-equipped to deal with large influxes of environmental migrants.

Climate change will in many cases exacerbate existing inequities in India’s society and economy, potentially leading to internal social disruptions.

While a general state failure in India is unlikely, India may accumulate a number of failed constituent states. The states most at risk are the densely populated, under-developed, and politically unstable states of India’s northeastern agricultural heartland.

Beyond 2030, India’s ability to cope is unclear.

Climate change may cause humanitarian crisis or state failures in one or more of India’s neighbors, including its nuclear-armed rival Pakistan.

NIC is a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.

The predicted migration polewards of the Hadley precipitation cells should strike absolute havoc with India's agriculture, almost as bad as expected for the Sahel. China is actually a lot better off in this respect.

Projections of a record grain harvest for the 2008/09 growing season are being borne out, with total output for the Sahel and West Africa estimated at 54 million MT, including 9 million MT of rice and 45 million MT of coarse grains. Grain production in the Sahel is estimated at 15, 500,000 MT,1 up 21% from last year (2007/2008) and 24% above the five-year average.

Virtually all countries in the Sahel are reporting sizeable increases in rice production. On average, output was up 34 percent in 2008/09, or more than 530,000 MT greater than that of 2007/08. Good climatic conditions and the stability of local markets reflecting similar international market trends bolstered grain production in general and rice production in particular.

India rejected key scientific findings on global warming, while the European Union called for more action by developing states on greenhouse gas emissions.

Jairam Ramesh, the Indian environment minister, accused the developed world of needlessly raising alarm over melting Himalayan glaciers.

He dismissed scientists’ predictions that Himalayan glaciers might disappear within 40 years as a result of global warming.

. . .

Mr Ramesh said the rate of retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas varied from a “couple of centimetres a year to a couple of metres”, but that this was a natural process that had taken place occurred over the centuries. Some were, in fact, growing, he said.

The glaciers – estimated by India’s space agency to number about 15,000 – had also been affected by debris and the large number of tourists, he said.

The closer you live to an unstable dam the less you worry about a catastrophic dam breach. You subconsciously know have a zero chance of survival, so why worry? No politician will admit to a problem to which they have no solution.

It looks counter intuitive but the map gives the impression that those countries with very high per capita energy use are not the ones facing energy shortages. These countries are rich and can easily outbid the poor countries for supply. As the peak oil problems grow I expect this disparity to grow along with it. The inability to supply industry with needed power will result in more production of goods to return to the rich countries where the power supply is reliable.

The inability to maintain supplies is not a function of global coal availability.

But more a story of the willingness to tolerate ad hoc supplies by Indian power customers, enormous subsidies for power that keep prices at retail low (and hence, cripple investment in power generation, distribution, and up and down the supply chain).

Then there is the weakness of port infrastructure, rail, and the unwillingness to buy large quantities of coal on the international market to meet demand.

However, more to the topic of this site I saw that Coal India Ltd (CIL) had a booth, and with all the emphasis that was placed on China at the ASPO Conference, it is perhaps useful to give some statistics, from their brochure, on the other country anticipating considerable increased coal use. India uses coal to meet around 55% of its industrial power needs, and has estimated reserves of 264 billion tons, with a proven reserve of 102 billion tons, 80 years at current rates of consumption. CIL mines 84% of India’s coal feeding 72 of the 75 thermal power stations in the country (64,285 MW) with the 380 million tons they mine. Their sales brought in $9.69 billion of which $1 billion went in tax.

Because of increasing total demand, which is expected to rise to 730 million tons by 2011-2012, CIL will increase its production to 520 million tons, rising to 664 million tons by 2016-2017. At present 84% of the coal is mined at the surface, though this may only last some 30 more years. They recognize that mining will thus have to focus more in the future on underground production. Indian coal needs to be cleaned to meet international standards at higher prices, and so the company will also invest in larger coal washeries. It has planted 69 million trees as part of land reclamation after mining. With 473 mines and 424,000 employees, CIL claims to be the largest coal producing company in the world.

Interesting post about India. The company I work for is trying to sell coal mining equipment to India at the moment. They are very good at playing hardball when it comes to business even if it is at their own expense in the long run. Apparently 34 different bureaucratic application forms had to be submitted even before we could start negotiating.

Bangalore has a population of about 6.5 million and growing maybe 7-8% each year largely due to immigration from other parts of India and nearby areas. We depend on the monsoons in more ways than one.

Karnataka (the state in which Bangalore is) has about 5500MW of installed capacity of which about 1100-1200MW is hydro-electric. The rest is mostly thermal with some small amounts of wind power.

If the monsoons fail then the 1100 MW is gone starting maybe April each year. Then the failed monsoon means that farmers depend on ground water for irrigation and hence the load on the grid goes up due to all the pumpsets running.

Bangalore gets its drinking water from 100km away. If the monsoon fails, we end up with a drinking water crisis.

Once summer comes and power shortages start, people run their diesel gensets. Last year when oil had hit 140/bbl we had a severe diesel shortage as well. So we end up in a real mess when the monsoon fails. This year we again got away. There were copious rains in the first half of July and all the reservoirs are full.

Rainwater harvesting is now mandatory in all homes built on plots bigger than 2400 sqft. But no enforcement.

The lead article in the National Geographic this month or last month was about the medieval Khmer empire based in Angkor Wat. The article contends that the extensive irrigation and water storage systems that sustained that empire were not adaptable to a period of instability in the monsoon, which led to the collapse of the state.

In other words, problems with relying on the monsoon are nothing new. How this interplays with energy scarcity remains to be seen, but it does seem likely that if India suffers a precipitous collapse, it will happen in the context of a bad monsoon year.

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