Coalition NBN plan to deliver “25 gigabit”: Rural MP

news A rural NSW MP from the National Party has inaccurately claimed that the Coalition’s National Broadband Network policy will guarantee speeds of “at least 25 gigs” to all Australians by 2016, with Labor’s policy to deliver a mere “100 kilobits” in comparison, as inaccurate comments about the two policies continue to proliferate.

Unveiled in mid-April, the Coalition’s NBN policy is based on the core pledge that the group will deliver download speeds of between 25Mbps and 100Mbps by the end of 2016 — effectively the end of its first term in power — and 50Mbps to 100Mbps by the end of 2019, effectively the end of its second term. According to the Coalition’s statement upon the policy’s launch, the 25Mbps to 100Mbps pledge applies to “all premises”, while the higher pledge by 2019 applies to “90 percent of fixed line users”.

In comparison, Labor’s more ambitious plan, which relies more strongly on the provision of universal fibre broadband (as compared to a more limited fibre rollout under the Coalition’s plan) promises to deliver top-range speeds of up to 1Gbps by the end of 2021 to most of Australia, with some rural and regional areas to receive satellite and wireless speeds of up to 25Mbps.

Cobb claimed that the Labor Federal Government had recently cut 20 percent of its planned $43 billion investment in the NBN project, and so residents of the city of Bathurst, in the Calare electorate, would need to wait “even longer” for faster broadband to their area. “Probably it’s looking like way out into 2020 before we get hooked up to what is supposed to be Internet speeds of 100 kilobit,” Cobb said. Later in the segment, Cobb claimed that the Coalition “has said and will guarantee at least 25 gigs for everybody by 2016”.

In contrast, in the same segment, Labor candidate for Calare, Jess Jennings, said Labor was “almost” not calling the Coalition’s policy a broadband plan, because of its continued use of Telstra’s copper network to reach from neighbourhood fibre ‘nodes’ to premises, instead of fibre as in Labor’s plan. “If you’re going to continue to use copper technology out in the regions … copper is really struggling,” said Jennings.

The misleading comments by Cobb come as both sides of politics have made a number of inaccurate statements regarding the NBN over the past several years.

Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull immediately responded to Rudd’s false claim, stating on Twitter: “Not correct; Our plan will improve your area’s bband speeds by taking it from ADSL to VDSL – most would have 50 megs – 25 is the minimum.” He added in a follow-up tweet that 25Mbps was the minimum speed which the Coalition was guaranteeing under its predominantly fibre to the node plan — but that VDSL had the potential to deliver much higher speeds for “most customers”.

However, the Coalition has also made a number of misleading statements about Labor’s NBN project over the past several years. In one of the more blatant examples of misleading commentary, Federal Shadow Education Minister Christopher Pyne inaccurately claimed on national radio in October that the National Broadband Network has not connected any customers at speeds of 100Mbps, despite the fact that in fact, 44 percent of NBN customers connected to the project’s fibre infrastructure at that point had taken up such speeds. There have been several dozen other similar examples over that period.

120 COMMENTS

Would love to see some scrutiny as to whether the coalition’s timing is realistic. I live 15min drive from the Sydney CBD, but my max ADSL download speed is only about 5Mbps. There must be millions of people with the same conditions, plus people in rural areas too.

I find it hard to believe that the coalition will be able to wind-back the ALP NBN, renegotiate contracts, plan all the different work, employ contractors and then do all the installation work in time to get me 25Mbps by 2016. I just can’t see it happening, but is there any actual professional/technical scrutiny of their timeframe?

I don’t mind the Coalition plan put under the same scrutiny, that’s how it should be, but please don’t put forward conjecture about the Coalition rollout delays that has not even started yet whilst turning a blind eye to what is actually happening to the Labor NBN in regard to their rollout delays.

‘I’m not talking about “conjecture”, I’m talking about objective analysis. It is possible (and necessary!) to scrutinise the coalition’s plans and determine whether or not they are realistic, and incorporate that scrutiny into an overall assessment of the coalition’s NBN vs the ALP NBN, without it being simply guessing, or otherwise ignoring the ALP NBN delays.

Precisely Steve, we shouldn’t take the parties, both of them, on good faith that they will meet their objectives.

There is a difference between asking “Is it possible?” and “The delay happened because”. NBNCo were always capable of meeting their targets, they didn’t because of external factors. We’re simply asking if the Coalition are capable of meeting their targets. If they are, then great, hunky dorry, they probably won’t because of some external factor, but as you said Fibroid, that’s conjecture.

What Steve is asking for isn’t conjecture however. It takes the Coalition assumptions on good faith and looks at their practicality.

Yes Firoid, fibre to the node is both cheaper & faster to roll out & Malcolm’s stated speeds are available from each node.
No problems so far…
BUT then how do you guarantee “a minimum 25 mb/s at everybody’s” home?
First, before commencing works & during wet weather do you test/troubleshoot/repair/replace every suspect pair to honour your guarantee?
Then continue to constantly interrupt multiple customer’s services while replacing only individual faulty FTTN connections on a daily basis in countless dud/marginal copper areas for many years via a small army of maintenance techs until eventually nearly all are switched to fibre or get new copper?

During my long years of practical experience in related areas I quickly learned it’s usually both much “faster & cheaper” to start afresh instead of continuing to flog a sick & dying horse!

I don’t mind the Coalition plan put under the same scrutiny, that’s how it should be, but please don’t put forward conjecture about the Coalition rollout delays that has not even started yet whilst turning a blind eye to what is actually happening to the Labor NBN in regard to their rollout delays.

> It does matter, because dispite your opionion otherwise, the schedule of the NBN, delayed as it may have been by contractors and Telstra, is industry recognised as valid.

Is your statement just wishful thinking? I’ve read nothing to suggest that NBNCo are on track to meet their consistently revised down delivery schedules although the purchase of TransactACT fibre should help boost their connection numbers.

The LNP have promissed a review of the available technologies and will select the one which is deemed to be the best…… in the opinions of the firm who they engage and select the terms of reference for.

So you can add the time for a CBA to be conducted to the schedule of works for the LNP to conduct to provide you with your 25MBPS by 2016.

The deployment of FTTN is faster than that of FTTP… when you look at two seperate schemes. It is yet to be proven that the planning and deployment of FTTN for the LBN will be significantly faster than that of the already in progress FTTH NBN. I don’t believe there are any examples of FTTH networks which have had the brakes applied, new CBA’s conducted, initial planning commenced, renegotiation of contracts, changes to legislation, test sites initiated etc

The only way I would see the LNP time frames to be realistic is if they have promised Telstra a blank cheque in exchange for the last mile of copper and they have already commenced a full planning for deployment of FTTN throughout Australia. This obviously would be unlikely to be a promise of direct cash payments, rather payment in the form of favourable outcomes/conditions for Telstra in the future.

jasmcd correctly lists several of the delaying factors of the coalition FTTN, but I would not even grant Turnbull the claim that FTTN is faster to deploy than FTTP without first knowing how much copper needs replacing before it can deliver the 50 Mbps he promises by 2019 for his contingency-free $29 billion budget.

The fact is that most Telstra copper in Australia is now older than the 30 year effective life Telstra uses as its benchmark (it fully depreciates its copper in 15 years), so few nodes would be spared the need to replace random copper wire, a ludicrous activity that could only be justified on partisan grounds.

Nobody in their right mind expects any Coalition rollout to have started before the end of 2014! By that time, NBNCo will be offering 1000/400 Mbps then if the Coalition follow through on their policy they’ll start rolling out other areas to 25/? Mbps.

To right Steve, if the current NBN is having problems rolling out the fibre and the contracts go out to 2015 how can the Coalition rollout theirs as well by 2016. You wont see anything of the Coalition plan in their first term of governemnt, end of story.

Steve, sadly your comment displays the same ignorance as that of the subject of the article.

1. Driving time to the city centre has absolutely nothing to do with ADSL speed. Like all forms of DSL, it is the distance to the node that is important. Currently, the node is the exchange. FTTN simply brings the node closer to the premises.

2. While you did not state it explicitly, it is worth highlighting that FTTN has nothing to do with ADSL. ADSL could be used, but it would be stupid to do so. If VDSL2 with vectoring is used (a technology that is available today), it will be able to achieve speeds slightly better than the initial NBN fibre offer (VDSL2 100/50Mb/s vs NBN’s 100/40Mb/s).

3. Regardless of what people think of it, FTTN is the technology being rolled out throughout much of the world. It should therefore be no surprise that a lot of work is being put into getting higher and higher speeds down the humble twisted pair. Speeds of 1Gb/s over 500m are in the pipeline. FTTP will be faster, but FTTN will follow closely behind.

4. By not having to roll fibre to every house, the Coalition’s plan does stand a better chance of getting broadband to you by 2016 than the current NBN’s constantly slipping targets. The NBN zealots will blame anyone and everyone to excuse the delays, but the real cause is simply the fact that there are not enough trained staff to roll out the volume of optical fibre cable needed to meet the targets. This is why they started slow and have consistently missed one revised target after another.

1. What is your information source of the copper gauge for Australia? I thought like the UK it is a mix of gauges, length and age.
2. What speed differences are there on FTTN directly attributed to copper thickness?

Naturally getting precise data on this subject is quite hard, however Sortius has done his best considering the data avaiable and has provided a few posts, two of which I will highlight you now.

It’s all about the dB/km’s explains about attenutuation and how the varius gauges affect it, as well as a little bit of data about how the BT network configuration varies from ours.

The most enlightening thing is when you look at the line lengths Deatsche Telekom are using to get 25Mbps, admititly without vectoring, however if you understand vectoring it still doesn’t quite add up what Turnbull is supporting. Sortius explained that in Simplistic Arguments Reign Supreme.

So the state of the copper, once again, is something only Telstra can answer, however it doesn’t look good right now. As for your second question, I would have thought it would be obvious that thinner wires propergate high frequency signals worse than thicker ones to anyone with even a rudementary understanding of signal processing, so I honestly don’t understand why you asked this question? Regardless, the articles I link provide information on it.

You don’t even have to make that argument Tinman, as Steven pointed out, if you read the quotes from Thodey made he merely specifices that 25Mbps over copper is possible and is proven by labs and overseas (which is correct), he doesn’t say anything about the state of Telstra’s Copper, or even, as implied by Fibroid that the plan Turnbull proposes.

That is too say: saying that a copper network can do 25Mbps doesn’t imply that the Telstra CAN, with the modications proposed by Turnbull is able to do 25Mbps.

1. Driving time to the city centre has absolutely nothing to do with ADSL speed. Like all forms of DSL, it is the distance to the node that is important. Currently, the node is the exchange. FTTN simply brings the node closer to the premises.

True. TransACT (the only commercial roll-out of FTTN in Australia) has it’s nodes at 300m from the premises to provide “up to” 80 Mbps.

2. While you did not state it explicitly, it is worth highlighting that FTTN has nothing to do with ADSL. ADSL could be used, but it would be stupid to do so. If VDSL2 with vectoring is used (a technology that is available today), it will be able to achieve speeds slightly better than the initial NBN fibre offer (VDSL2 100/50Mb/s vs NBN’s 100/40Mb/s).

3. Regardless of what people think of it, FTTN is the technology being rolled out throughout much of the world. It should therefore be no surprise that a lot of work is being put into getting higher and higher speeds down the humble twisted pair. Speeds of 1Gb/s over 500m are in the pipeline. FTTP will be faster, but FTTN will follow closely behind.

True. Many incumbents use FTTN to get more use from their old copper networks. The 1Gbps deployments you mention are called FiOS in the US, which is actually FTTC (Fibre to the Curb….which is pretty well the same as FTTH).

4. By not having to roll fibre to every house, the Coalition’s plan does stand a better chance of getting broadband to you by 2016 than the current NBN’s constantly slipping targets. The NBN zealots will blame anyone and everyone to excuse the delays, but the real cause is simply the fact that there are not enough trained staff to roll out the volume of optical fibre cable needed to meet the targets. This is why they started slow and have consistently missed one revised target after another.

There is no chance in hell that Malcolm will be able to complete 3 studies/reports and negotiate with Telstra to be able to use their copper, in the first half of 2014. If you think they can complete a nation wide roll-out of 100K+ nodes by 2016, I’d like some of whatever your on :o)

Sadly, you were unable to see the broader points that I made, and instead spent your time unfruitfully trying to nitpick the less relevant detail.

Yes, proximity to the city is not causally relevant in determining speed. However, there are a greater concentration of high-speed connections closer to the city than in the fringes or rural areas. My point – for people that are able to make simple inferences – is that there are many millions of people, even in our most populous cities where exchanges and infrastructure are more dense, that have adsl connection speeds that suggest that a good deal of work is created before they will get 25mbps under the coalition’s NBN. This means that, to deliver all these people 25mbps on FTTN, lots and lots of nodes and new infrastructure will need to be installed. The doubt I have for which I was was requesting expert analysis, is: will the coalition be able to organise all this new infrastructure by 2016 – only 3 years away. I doubt they will.

The coalition’s NBN is related to ADSL in that current ADSL speeds give an indication of the distance people are from the exchange. To get 25mbps on VDSL, you need to be close to the exchange, or else close to a node. So considering the many people that have low adsl sync speeds gives some insight into the job that needs to be done on installing nodes for FTTN to deliver 25mbps to all.

1Gbps over FTTN. Lol. FTTN with a node on every property, and brand new copper wiring for all.

You point out that the coalition plan does have a better chance of delivering fast broadband to me sooner than the ALP. I don’t, and haven’t, disputed that (though given I am in a 3 year NBN roll out area, it might not be true). My point was that the timeframe promised by the LNP is, I think, arguably unrealistic, and I would like to see some expert scrutiny of it. 25mbps by 2016 means that all the nodes have been installed for all the people far from exchanges to get that speed. Its a lot of work, all round the country, and even inner city areas aren’t exempted.

We aren’t comparing FTTN vs FTTP with both starting from scratch. We are comparing a government and FTTP with 4 years of preparation, planning, contract negotiation and implementation, to a new govt with a new plan for FTTN, a plan that is only as detailed as what Malcolm Turnbull, his staffers, and some hired consultants could muster. To actually deliver it, they will need to get departmental involvement, a more detailed plan, not to mention unwind the FTTP. That all takes time.

No, it’s not an honest mistake it’s multiple mistakes demonstrating extreme ignorance of the issue – if he’s this confused at this stage in the election cycle when it’s about the only policy the Coalition have released, how befuddled and bewildered will he be by September?

2 reasons. Either he doesn’t know in which case he shouldn’t be commenting on it.

OR

He knows and is accidentally lying in such a way that the coalition plan looks better.

My opinion is that it is option 1, because option 2 is so obviously wrong only those already won over will believe it.

In which case, yes he is a clown. I don’t know the context of his comment. (Did he make a statement or was he asked a question).
If he was asked and didn’t know, then he should have simply said that he was unsure of the exact details.
If he just made the statement, then he is even more of a clown.

There’s nothing to suggest that at all – he “misspoke” in a way that made the Coalition speeds 1000x more than they are, then “misspoke” in a way that made the NBN speeds 1000x less than they are – those two “misspeakings” combined have him saying that the Coalition fake plan is a million times faster than the NBN!

He’s either incompetent, or he’s a deliberate liar… which do you think?

I wont say he’s a clown, but it really concerns me that his electorate would be willing to let someone thats so incompetent that he obviously has no idea what he’s talking about, make comment about a policy he obviously has no idea about, and yet they’ll still vote him in.

he should have just deferred any questions to the relevant “authority”, Mr Turnbull.

John Cobb IS a clown. He’s a fairly nice bloke in person, but when it comes to politics is mostly hot air and regurgitation of Coalition press releases and cranky (and factually bereft) newspaper columns – a weekly highlight of many a paper out here. The major reason more than 50% of the electorate vote for him is because he’s a Nationals member – there is still a very strong mentality out here that “Nationals are best for rural areas”.

FTTN’s guaranteed minimum speed is 25Mbps, or 50Mbps if the magic vectoring plays out as hoped.

With FTTP you have the flexibility of offering slower plans for less money (sensible user pays system). With FTTN you don’t – it is all about the lottery of where you live and what the line is like (nonsense user gets random quality system).

No it is not factually correct. There have been no terms of reference established as to the nature to the “Guarantee”
1.
a promise or assurance, especially one in writing, that something is of specified quality, content, benefit, etc., or that it will perform satisfactorily for a given length of time: a money-back guarantee.

Without some sort of detail its …. an empty political promise, as much substance as “No Australian child will be living in poverty…” We can only dream what would happen in the Australian political climate if one of our illustrious politcians were to actually make a genuine guarantee “This will happen OR I will give up my parlimentary pension” I know, it will never happen, but I expect you would live in The Lodge if you had the guts to make and stand by such a promise.
I’d state Australians are sick of empty promises, guarantee’s, mandates and all other abuses of the dictionary we have been subject to, but I fear apathy carries the day and such a statement would be as empty as the utterings of politicians.

Current planned speed of FttN is zero, because its not the current plan.

If you want to argue that point, then the current planned speed of FttN is 25 Mbps compared to 100 Mbps. If you want to keep arguing, the future planned speed of FttN is 50 Mbps versus 1 Gbps. Where is FttN ever matching FttH?

Hell, best case scenario for you – FttN’s best guarantee is 50 Mbps, whie FttH’s worst guarantee is 100 Mbps. Still twice as fast.

Sounds great, except that just the wholesale AVC charge is $150/month ($1800/year) meaning that NBNCo are predicting that in 2028 less than 5% will have 1Gbps speeds.

FTTP is still available under the Coalition plan and at ~$3000 for installation almost certainly will be cheaper over the long run, because cost is paid upfront and not subsidising a national roll out where only 70% of premises actually connect.

> FTTN’s guaranteed minimum speed is 25Mbps, or 50Mbps if the magic vectoring plays out as hoped.

25Mbps is more than double the FTTN minimum speed tier. NBNCo are predicting that 50% will connect at 12Mbps so for 50%, the Coalition plan will deliver more than double the speed and more quadruple the speed in 2019.

“Under the Labor plan, 50% on fibre are predicted by NBNCo to connect at 12Mbps. Compare that with the Coalition where the minimum speed is 25Mbps (rising to 50Mbps in 2019). Clearly under NBNCo’s own predictions, half of Australia will have faster speeds with the Coalition plan”

The uptake on 12Mbps is only 50%. Wow, I didn’t think many companies even sold it. Tell me more. I think you are on to something here. I hope you have posted all over the plan for the last 2 years, it’s astonding.

You do realise that under the Liberals plan, people get the same speeds or lower than the FTTH plan with the same AVC if they go fibre, and they’ll actually have to pay around $3000 if they want fibre all the way.

Please explain to me how that is “better” than fibre for all, with folks choosing their own connection speed/price?

We have continually demonstrated the error in your stance and you refuse to hear it.

Although this time you have avoided directly comparing AVC with the slated installing cost while ignoring the ongoing cost in the later case. This is an improvement. But your logical reasoning is still flawed.

For example you assume the Coalition won’t introduce speed tiers when the policy documents indicate otherwise.

You assume that the conservative uptake estimates are set in stone when evening of actual uptake suggests we can except a higher than stated average speed.

You also indirectly assume that the pieces between 12Mbps and 1Gbps are linear, ignoring the fact the pricing is focused on the lower end, meaning that it is quite easy to get 10x with very little price increase, however to get 10x will cost a very significant amount.

Which comes down to a fundamental assumption that bandwidth is free, which we have indicated countless times, it isn’t.

>> FTTP’s guaranteed minimum speed is 1000Mbps.
>Sounds great, except that just the wholesale AVC charge is $150/month ($1800/year) meaning that >NBNCo are predicting that in 2028 less than 5% will have 1Gbps speeds.

Er, correct me if I am wrong, but that simply means that NBNCO are predicting 5% takeup of 1Gbps speeds. Not that it will not be technically viable.

>FTTP is still available under the Coalition plan and at ~$3000 for installation almost certainly will be >cheaper over the long run, because cost is paid upfront and not subsidising a national roll out where >only >70% of premises actually connect.
Except that you know the copper is dying and will need to be replaced. Ask anyone piecemeal replacement generally costs more in the long run, that starting anew.

> FTTN’s guaranteed minimum speed is 25Mbps, or 50Mbps if the magic vectoring plays out as hoped.
>25Mbps is more than double the FTTN minimum speed tier. NBNCo are predicting that 50% will >connect at 12Mbps so for 50%, the Coalition plan will deliver more than double the speed and more >quadruple the speed in 2019.

No, and this is where you are lying outright. The NBNCO are predicting the 50% will choose 12Mbps, they might actually all choose a higher plan.
And no FTTN have simply guaranteed 25mbps available. The plans will be worked out by the retailer’s offering it. So they may only offer smaller plans as well.

Point is, he stated there wouldn’t be much upgrade for his electorate. If there’s HFC + Fibre already, a) they’re not going to get the Coalition’s NBN for a while, and b) Will it really be much of an upgrade? (especially if you’re in the fibre areas). I just don’t think he was stretching the truth that much.

FTTN makes perfect sense if it were being rolled out by Telstra at their expense, and if they were starting 5 years ago. The horse has bolted in Australia on FTTN, Telstra could not come to terms with the ACCC for an FTTN, and indications are that nothing has changed, hence the emergence of NBNCo to largely take Telstra out of the picture.

Why do we wont to go back to a system that didn’t work when Howard was in charge, it won’t work under Abbott, the telecommunications industry in Australia has proven itself unable or unwilling to meet the needs of the market, let NBNCo get on with the job of dragging Australia in to the 21st Century, if the coalition doesn’t think the current NBNCo are up to the job, then put in people who can do the job, but lets not go back to what we had before, we already know that doesn’t work.

your 1GB figure is nice. except that how many people in Australia will have access to it as of December? 200,000? out of how many?

A 10 year project that is only 3 months stretched? NBN will offer it by December, that’s guaranteed, like the rest of the FTTH speed profiles.

Unless your node is metres from your modem/router at home, then any speeds that FTTN will always be “upto”, and going by the standard of telstra’s copper, most will get far less – despite MT’s assertions, they will always be an “aspiration”.

LNP don’t even know how much WE are going to pay Telstra for their copper. I full expect to heat MT announce an 18-month stretch to his initial 3-year claim within week of Sept 14th

You’re wrong on that. The Coalition’s FTTN Broadband policy is a guarantee of 25Mbps. Not upto 25Mbps. It will be “up to” some other unspecified value based on the theoretical limit of VDSL2+.

The true question is whether the number of nodes and distances that the Coalition has costed will be able to provide that guarantee. And whether that will blow out their cost or not. Labour cost for their roll out will probably blow out as well. Contractor’s will be more likely to cover more training costs in their intial bids thanks to the uncertainty created by the Coalitions likely cancellation of future fiber roll out phases.

FTTH will allow 1gbit to anyone who wants to option a retail plan over it (from December?). Numbers of people whom actually take up the offer are pretty irrelevant. The choice is there for any Fibre connected consumer.

And that’s the important factor. Availability and choice.

Just as there is (apparently) choice to pay (granted, a few thousand) for Fibre from Uncle Malcolm, and we’re told that’s just fine. So, we can buy either outcome. Uncle Malcolm is a bit more expensive, but that’s user-pays for you.

So, can you please explain how your argument has any logical basis in fact, at all?

> FTTH will allow 1gbit to anyone who wants to option a retail plan over it (from December?). Numbers of people whom actually take up the offer are pretty irrelevant. The choice is there for any Fibre connected consumer.

Actually the numbers are very relevant. NBNCo are predicting that less than 5% will connect at 1Gbps in 2028. This is most likely because the wholesale cost of AVC is $150/month. This is a huge premium to change a software setting.

> And that’s the important factor. Availability and choice.

I suggest anyone who can afford a Labor NBN 1Gbps plan, shouldn’t have any trouble coming up with the ~$3000 to install fibre under the Coalition plan.

Under the Labor plan, 50% on fibre are predicted by NBNCo to connect at 12Mbps. Compare that with the Coalition where the minimum speed is 25Mbps (rising to 50Mbps in 2019). Clearly under NBNCo’s own predictions, half of Australia will have faster speeds with the Coalition plan.

It is a sad day when a FTTP network is promoted as being the best solution, when half the connections are predicted to be slower than FTTN, HFC, 4G and approaching half of ADSL2+ connections.

“NBNCo are predicting that less than 5% will connect at 1Gbps in 2028. This is most likely because the wholesale cost of AVC is $150/month.”

And yet more people took up 100 mbit than predicted. Here’s the thing, Matt, it’s a prediction not a specifically guaranteed outcome.

But feel free to continue to claim today’s pricing and demand levels are relevant for a service period 15 years in the future.

“Under the Labor plan, 50% on fibre are predicted by NBNCo to connect at 12Mbps. Compare that with the Coalition where the minimum speed is 25Mbps (rising to 50Mbps in 2019). Clearly under NBNCo’s own predictions, half of Australia will have faster speeds with the Coalition plan.”

Are you seriously trying to equate a prediction, with a technical limitation and tell me that the technical limitation is the better outcome?

What about the other 50% Matt? The ones over 12 mbit? Never mind actual figures that show something other than 50%. Here, let me help you with that.

Simon also noted that it was encouraging to see a significant number of NBN connected end users were choosing NBN plans based on the top tier of 100Mbps/ 40Mbps***. There is an approximately even spread of end user take-up between top-tier, mid-range and entry level NBN plans.

There are currently I believe four (4) retail speed options; if there is an “approximately even” spread, that that’s roughly a quarter, or ~25% taking up for 12 mbit.

And that is today. Not in 15 years. May. This year. At worst, 70% of those connected to NBN are operating at over 12 mbit.

Prediction does not necessarily have a 1:1 correlation with reality. The reality is already very different to predictions. That gulf is only ever going to become greater if predictions remain the same.

You do realise that 1/4 of the fiber connections aren’t actually using broadband but are just getting a fixed phone line?
They would be assumed to only be using the UNI-V voice port to get a phone line, which is bundled with the 12Mb/sec connection. So that padds out the 12 Mb/sec quantity, but doesn’t reflect actual internet usage.
I’m sure everyone who reads this knows about some senior citizen, or small buisiness premises that would only need a phone line who lives in a fiber area.
I know my grandparents aren’t going to use the internet at home, but will need that phone line for the panic button. (but they aren’t in the 3 yr rollout area)

“Under the Labor plan, 50% on fibre are predicted by NBNCo to connect at 12Mbps. Compare that with the Coalition where the minimum speed is 25Mbps (rising to 50Mbps in 2019). Clearly under NBNCo’s own predictions, half of Australia will have faster speeds with the Coalition plan.”

Go and read the Coalition plan again and tell me what is predicted to be the most common connection speed. Thats right it is 12Mbps.

The Coalition is offering the same speed tiers (for the small number of cases where they are able to) that NBNco currently is offering. The difference is that if you happen to be one of the unlucky ones without a large fridge sized node outside your door you will only be able to select either the minimum offered speed (12 Mbps) or the minimum guaranteed speed (25 Mbps).

If you want higher speed then pony up your after tax dollars (+GST) to pay for fibre on demand. And dont forget that those furthest from the node will get to pay the highest price for the privilege.

Based on the latest rollout ready for service spreadsheets and latest figures, December fiber premises passed would be over 450 thousand, 230k more than the June figures.
Given the aprox 12 million fiber premises in the current NBN plan, this gives a 4% completion after 16 months of full speed rollout, which is really 4 months allowing for projected rollout process time.

A linear projection would imply a 25 year completion date, but projected rollout plan allows for a doubling of rollout rate from December 2013 to be about 1 million/year annualised rate.

And those thousands would all be capable of 1Gb/sec, as opposed to being in the coppre ghetto of a “guarantee” 25Mb/sec.

Guest, you say “they’ve guaranteed 25 minimum. numerous times.” – where in the Coalition policy document does it say that? A text search for “guarantee” finds 0 results and page two of their document says the following:
“Our goal is for every household and business to have access to broadband with a download data rate of between 25 and 100 megabits per second by late 2016.”
Page 6 says:
“Our aim is that everyone in the nation should have access to broadband with download rates of between 25 and 100 megabits per second by 2016, and between 50 and 100 megabits per second by the end of 2019 in 90 per cent of the fixed line footprint”
Page 8 says:
“A revised objective will be set…”
Note: goal/aim/objective and guarantee are not in any way synonymous…

No they haven’t used the word guarantee. I wouldn’t trust that from the coalition anyway. Abbott’s iron-clad guarantee about medicare back in the day, wasn’t worth the metal it was forged from.

They stated that the goal is for every household to have access to download speed of 25Mbps upto some other amount that doesn’t really matter for this point (because its not higher than NBNCo’s maximum available speed).

Stating that the Coalition is going to supply upto 25Mbps is a gross misrepresentation of their policy, no matter how impractical and unrealistic their costs may be. It is at the same level as Matthew’s complete misrepresentation of NBNCo’s financial predictions for their business plan.

The Coalition’s policy is still rubbish though. It may be better than what we have, but its a gross waste of money that still leaves Australia behind the ball in the information technology world.

… while achieving the opposite, portraying his party as ill informed buffoons who will say anything that comes to mind to make themselves look good, only to achieve the opposite with any voter who is half informed about the issue.
Does this mean they are also stating they officially believe enough voters are ill-informed morons willing to believe any drivel they are presented with, and that they can ignore all those capable of recognising the blatant lies and hypocrisy they present.

We really have a marvellous political system, open factual discourse to achieve the best possible outcome… ROFPMLOL
The catechism is right, we get the government we deserve!

I believe we need to stop using the term “guarantee” for the LNP plan, as the policy doesn’t offer any. Malcolm might be commenting that 25mbit is the minimum, but the policy is vague and simply states intent.

ADSL/ VDSL is reliant on existing in-ground copper quality; fibre is, however, being built over new cable. One is at high risk of not meeting stated goals, the other is engineered from scratch to do the job once, right, because it can be.

If Malcolm can find the funding and ensure last-mile length is less than 500 meters, then sure, the chances of getting 100mbit are vastly improved. But, because the copper isn’t brand new, it’s still a lottery.

As for the original comment, by the coalition member? I tend to think he mixed kbit with mbit. They all look the same, right?

“Goal” is mentioned 4 times
“Aim” is mentioned twice.
“Should” is mentioned 16 times (not counting the ones in footnotes).

Guarantee = 0
Guaranteed = 0

I think in their enthusiasm for FTTN, Liberal supporters are just trying to make Malcoms job easier for him by “selling” it as guaranteed, even though Malcolm will be able to turn around and say (quite rightly) that he never said that.

Of all this discussion there’s so much fire over take up rates (at various speed tiers) and download speeds that it’s almost as if everyone forgets the most important aspect. Upload speed.

I’ve access to HFC and am really enjoying the download speeds afforded (120mbps not 100 as some mistakenly believe) but the upload speeds are enough to drive me to drink.

Working from home is difficult to say the least with a 2.5mbps upload speed. So much so, I don’t know how I survived with the pathetic 1mbps upload speed that ADSL afforded me before I gave that rubbish technology the flick.

Living in Perth, it’s amazing to see how much of an urban sprawl we have now and how much worse it’s going to get. Transport infrastructure barely has the capacity to cope which is what makes the NBN all the more important as more and more people turn to telecommuting as a part of their daily working life.

If anything, the Liberal NBN policy is giving business the biggest kick in the guts. How are we supposed to be competitive with the rest of the world when we’re stuck on third world infrastructure, especially when taking into account the uniqueness we have in our sparseness?

One can hope that should the Liberals be elected this September that they approach this sensibly with the notion that this country’s future is more important than hamstringing us with below par telecommunications infrastructure all for the sake of saving a few bucks (which is already been proven untrue due to the funding model of the current NBN.)

Um, so no mention of dimensionally incorrect “UPLOAD SPEEDS” for those that laugh the hardest?!!? The whole country is witnessing the accentuation of “UPLOAD SPEEDS” in the answers to dorothy dixers in question time and we are all drowning in bourbon and coke knowing that this hansard will be the bane of all liberal voting toffee-noses for time immemorial.

I’m still somewhat miffed every time the Coalition makes the “we have 25mbits” minimum assertion because its “superior” to the lowest 12/1 plan…

When the 12/5 “minimum” on the fibre part of the NBN is merely an artificial limitation. If NBN wanted to they could “raise” the minimum across the network to 25mbits for the whole network and scrap all 12/1 plans! Of course they kept the artificial low limit of 12/1 for people who *don’t* need/use the internet and just need an existing line. It’s patently ridiculous because NBN has *NO* physical minimum “up to speed” just an artificial limitation that’s obviously just literally glossed over…

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