Lots of Sunshine today…Then some clouds and a few flurries possible News Years Day PM….Weather to continue excellent for all outdoor Winter Enthusiasts

Monday December 31, 2012

Posted at 2:09 pm by Howard

POSITIVE AO DEVELOPING>>>>>> Brief New Years Eve Update: Ridge in the West…. Trof over the Central US. Our weather pattern will highlight drier then normal precipitation and colder then normal temps. The Eastern Pacific high has found a home between the far eastern pacific and the far west. Any storm that happens to make it through the ridge will be weak and likely to bring only light amounts in the way of precipitation. Light amounts are considered between a trace and 6 inches of snow here in Mammoth Lakes. Although this is a dry pattern there are certainly a few weak systems over the next 1 to 2 weeks that has possibilities. One of which may bring a few showers or flurries New Years Day in the late afternoon as we expercience a return of upslope flow.

The best way to forecast these are when both EC and GFS global models are in agreement with the greatest confidence within 72 hours of our region. For the record, the models are all dry with this one…..however if we have some flurries…you’ll know where they came from. Mammoth Mountain is reporting a 10 to 12 foot base. There is probably much more in the upper bowls between Ch-3 and Gondola- 2.

In the meantime, it is cold…..It was -20F at 7:00am at Bryant Field, Bridgeport, Ca this AM. However, under the current inversion, temps are actually about 5 to 8 degrees warmer in the upper elevations today over yesterday. The Dweebs took a look at both the 8 to 14 day outlook and Climate models for a hint when the pattern might turn. In the 8 to 14 day outlook, 500Hpa heights are building over the Northern Pacific, with the upper jet expecting to respond by dipping south into the pacific NW about the middle of January. This would bring a return to wet conditions for Washington and Oregon between the 2nd and 3rd week of January.

The Climate models are indicating the change down into the Central Sierra taking a bit longer. So as “a guesstimate“…figure sometime after the 3rd week of January for some serious weather. The pattern that just developed often times lasts about 3 weeks…… Lets hope for a few small storms in the meantime…..