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Wenger's wonky maths has some merit

As the rest of the football media turns its attention to
the international fixtures, now is the ideal time for us to take stock of
precisely where Arsenal stand. This has been a season that promised much and,
in the absence of meaningful title challenges from Chelsea or the Manchester
clubs, it is one that really ought to have seen the Gunners prosper. That it
has clearly not been such a season is the sort of understatement that gives
sarcasm a bad name.

There is no getting away from the fact that Arsenal have
drawn and lost too many games in this inconsistent season. Arsenal ought to be better
than that. Even if they were to win all of their remaining fixtures, the
chances of even making it into the top two are remote. Such has been the
consistency shown by Leicester and Tottenham that Arsene Wenger’s enduing
optimism - for all its mathematical merit - looks to be more wishful thinking
than a genuine belief. The Gunners are way behind Leicester and are also
trailing Spurs - albeit with a game in hand. At this stage of the season those
are big deficits to make up and it is a reason why Arsenal have drifted out to odds of 6/1 in the Bet365
Premier League football betting for the title.

To run with Wenger’s positive thinking may seem either
romantic or naïve, but there are still thin straws of hope to cling to. The run
in is not overly demanding as, aside from the trips to Upton Park and the
Etihad, the Gunners will not face a team in the top half of the table. On
current form, Manchester City are alsohardly
an opponent to be feared.

And then there is the personnel. The emergence of Mohamed
Elneny may yet prove to be the most positively significant development in Arsenal’s
season. If he can forge a partnership with Francis Coquelin the attacking free
spirits may at least be given the freedom to truly cut loose. As ever with the
Gunners, it is what happens behind the lines that is crucial. Perhaps Elneny
will be the man to finally prove to Wenger that there is a need for more than a
single defensively capable midfielder in front to his back four.

That defensive solidity - not words associated with the
Gunners since the days of Vieira and Petit - is all the more important given
the goalkeeping situation. David Ospina is expected to shake offthe
knock he took at Goodison Park, but the sight of the Colombian hobbling
around whilst Wenger refused to entertain the introduction of Matt Macey did
nothing for the collective sense of security.

In the attacking sense, the emergence of a striker with the
directness of Alex Iwobi has also added another key attribute. The
19-year-old is undeniably raw, but he also offers undoubted promise and his
inclusion in the first-team squad constitutes a timely warning to the
likes of Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud that they can take nothing for
granted.

A maximum return from the Gunners’ remaining games would
put them on 79 points. Only in 1996/97 (Man United - 75pts) and 1997/98
(Arsenal - 78pts) has the Premier League title been won with a lower points
total. It would be highly unlikely, but Arsenal still have a reason to
approach the season's end with a wholly positive mind-set.