"Oh, man, what Id like
to see is the destruction of the militant wings of Hamas and Hezbollah
as well as the repudiation of them and their tactics by the Palestinian
and Lebanese people, not to mention the international community.
Id also like to see Syria and Iran humiliated in the process.

Talk about pipe dreams.

The outcome of all of this is, however, very much in doubt. While
I dont buy the proportional response argument
that France, the UN and others are making against Israel, I think
there is a chance of Israel going too far in its response to the
attacks by Hezbollah. By that I mean that the destruction of Lebanon
and the collapse (or further alienation) of Lebanons government
are not in Israels best interest. In fact that would strengthen
the hand of just about every one of Israels enemies. Hezbollah,
which has come under attack from within and without Lebanon (Saudi
Arabia has even criticized them) stands to recover if Israel continues
its offensive. And of course, Syria and Iran also stand to gain
politically from an extended conflict. What Israel needs to do is
clean out the south completely near its borders, smack Hezbollah
around for a few days and then demand the government of Lebanon
complies with the UN resolution which calls for the disarming of
Hezbollah. While I dont want to see further destruction of
Lebanon for the reasons stated, the government of Lebanon must be
made to realize that if they want to be treated as a sovereign nation,
they are indeed responsible for what goes on within their borders.
When, within 48 hours, 500 rockets are fired over their borders
into another sovereign nation, it becomes pretty lame to claim we
didnt know or we arent responsible.

Unfortunately I dont see this ending well unless the two
soldiers kidnapped (captured?) by Hezbollah are somehow recovered
fairly quickly. While PM Olmert has claimed Israel wont stop
their offensive until Hezbollah is disarmed, recovery of the soldiers
would provide an acceptable excuse to stop the offensive. Hezbollah,
however, is not likely to capitulate by surrendering them, and,
Im pretty sure the soldiers are being kept well away from
the fighting so it is unlikely theyd be accidentally recovered.
Id also guess that both Syria and Iran are advising Hezbollah
not to surrender them, understanding that the longer they can keep
Israel on the offensive in Lebanon, the better it works for them,
both regionally and internationally. Anger within Lebanon, and among
other Arab nations, at the actions of Hezbollah will quickly change
sides when it is perceived, whether reasonably or unreasonably,
that Israel is doing more than it should in the name of self-defense.
Im afraid that time is nearing.

So, 2 predictions for the price of 1, both premised on the action
of Israel.

Prediction 1: if Israel calls off the offensive
soon, and demands that Lebanon take charge of its country and borders
as well as disarming Hezbollah, and condemns Syria and Irans
role in the Hezbollah attacks, Israel comes out on top while the
stature Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are diminished.

Prediction 2: if Israel continues the offensive
until perceptions change as Ive argued might happen, then
the stature of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran is enhanced within the
region, and Israels is diminished. In that case, youll
most likely see Lebanons government collapse and Syria quietly
infiltrate the country again in an effort to reassert its authority
there. A puppet Lebanon is very useful to both Syria and Iran.

Unfortunately, Im a bit pessimistic about this particular
dust-up, as Im of the opinion, based on statements made by
Israels leadership, that it may paint itself into a political
corner and be unable to gracefully stop and do what is called for
in prediction 1. I therefore am reluctantly drawn to conclude that
prediction 2 is the most likely.

Our own Justin B. of Ski-Blog.com
(and now WILLisms.com also!) comes by for a visit:

"Personally, I think the end
result of this week will be that Israel is simply back to where
it was before the ill-fated "Roadmap to Peace" started
and that is occupying Southern Lebanon and Gaza. All the PA and
by Proxy, Iran and Syria did is justify Israel never making any
concessions for peace again and building higher and thicker walls
and further isolating the Palestinians.

The reconciliation period is over. Israel knew it was at war despite
giving back the disputed lands, which it only occupied as a buffer
zone to prevent attacks. They tried the roadmap and negotiated in
good faith and the PA did nothing and did not live up to a single
promise.

Here is my bold prediction--the condemnations from the UN Security
Council against Israel will be fare more harsh than those for North
Korea and Iran over their missile and Nuke programs. Syria and Iran
will not even get a UN slap on the wrists for their actions in provoking
this.

Less bold prediction--Muslim "Charities" will see
an unexpected surge in charitable contributions for Palestinians
injured at work, but only if their work involves killing babies
in cafes and grandmothers on busses.

Anyone that thinks this week was some major escalation in the conflict
is smoking crack. There was a temporary lull in the fighting, but
the war was still occurring and the PA, Iran, Syria, Hamas, et al,
were just regrouping to wipe Israel off the map. Note to nutjobs
in Middle East--stop f-ing with Israel. These people survived ovens,
gas chambers, France selling them out, and 60 years of hell and
Muslim attacks while establishing their country. They ain't rolling
over. When you see people with tattoos on their forearms of numbers,
these people are not intimidated by a couple of kids being abducted
and by a few rockets. Iran--Drop a nuke on 'em. If it kills 6M of
them, you have barely scratched the surface of what they endured
in WWII. If a complex system of ovens and gas chambers could not
wipe the Jews off the map, me thinks that a country whose military
might consists of 18 year olds with bombs made into vests is not
going to do what Germany and its war machine and technical knowhow
could not.

Least bold prediction of all--Israel will NOT BE WIPED OFF THE
MAP by the Syrians or Iranians. I wish Iran or Syria would push
this just one step further and let Israel attack their infrastructure.
Israel has battle plans for everything that has happened and already
knew every single target to attack. These terrorists can stage a
little ambush here or there and abduct a kid or two. You are fighting
what amounts to the second best military power in the world. A kidnapping
is not going to intimidate them.

The Host's Last Word: What I'd like to see happen - I'd like
to see Hezboallah erased from the map, such that even the memory of them is
lost to history. It is an absolute abomination that the potential of a democratic,
pluralistic and modern Lebanon is held hostage by well-armed Islamofascist terrorists
bent on returning the entire region to the seventh century, and waging permanent
war upon Israel.

I'd like to see Bashar Assad's regime toppled by the Syrian people themselves,
as they wake from their slumber and try to pull themselves into the 21st century.

I'd like the Palestinian people to finally realize that they are beaten, and
that their own leadership is a far worse enemy to them than Israel could ever
be.

Bold Predictions: Hezboallah will go into hiding, avoid direct confrontation
with the Israelis, and manage to survive on as a cancer in the region. The Lebanese
army will not be successful in rooting them out. Israel will run out of targets
to hit, will not get their soldier hostages back, and Israel will withdraw from
Lebanon and Gaza, and the status quo ante will continue. Israel will not attack
Syria at the behest of the United States, in order to prevent a wider conflict
with Iran that will lead to stepped-up Iranian attacks on Iraq.

Will asked me to work as a semi-regular while he does secret work. He won't even tell us what it is, but I saw his name listed in Heidi's entry in Who's Who under owner and when Heidi wrote the op-ed piece in the NYT recently about her secret ball fetching mission, she may have outed him. I already received a call from Novak.