Olympic Athletes in Tokyo Risk Hottest Weather in 120 Years

National Olympic Stadium, which will host the Opening and closing 2020 Olympics ceremony, and other events, stands in Tokyo. Photographer: Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Olympic athletes risk the hottest
weather in more than a century at the 2020 Tokyo Games as high
summer temperatures in Japan’s capital highlight concern about
holding global sporting events under extreme conditions.

Tokyo is set to host its second Olympics in July and
August, the hottest months in the city, where temperatures
soared to 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) last
month. FIFA, soccer’s global ruling body, will meet next month
to discuss switching the 2022 World Cup to Qatar’s winter amid
concerns the summer heat would be unsafe for players and fans.

A temperature of 38 degrees Celsius or higher during the
men’s marathon at the Tokyo Olympics would make it the hottest
in at least 120 years. The warmest marathon in the history of
the Games took place in 1900 in Paris, when more than half the
runners had to withdraw due to exhaustion as temperatures were
estimated at between 35 degrees and 39 degrees, according to the
Journal of Sports Sciences.

“It is unwise to plan an event in such extreme
conditions,” said George Havenith, professor of environmental
physiology and ergonomics at the U.K.’s Loughborough University,
who has visited Tokyo several times in the summer. “There also
is an increased risk for the spectators.”

Higher Humidity

In addition, higher humidity in Tokyo makes summer
temperatures feel hotter than in climates like Athens, where
there’s less moisture in the air, according to Tadayuki Iwaya, a
Tokyo-based meteorologist at Weather Caster Network.

The temperature would feel like 63 degrees Celsius should
the mercury hit 38 degrees Celsius with Tokyo’s average 71
percent humidity, according to the U.S. National Weather
Service’s Heat Index calculator. In comparison, the average
daily high of 33.2 degrees Celsius and 45.3 percent humidity in
Athens in August, when it held the marathon in the 2004, would
feel like 35 degrees Celsius, according to the index.

The previous time Tokyo staged the Olympic Games, in 1964,
it held them in October, when the mean daily high was 19.6
degrees Celsius, data from the Japan Meteorological Agency show.
Tokyo’s mean highs were 31.4 degrees in July this year and 33.2
last month.

Hisao Shuto, a spokesman for the Tokyo 2020 Bid Committee,
said an organizing committee will be set up in February to
decide details of the Olympics in Japan.

Tokyo Proposal

The IOC said the preferred period for the Games were
between July 15 and Aug. 31, though it would consider
applications outside of those dates, according to a report last
year from the Lausanne, Switzerland-based body.

Japan proposed the Olympic Games be held from July 24 to
Aug. 9, 2020, in its plan for the event. Istanbul suggested Aug.
7 to Aug. 23, 2020, and Madrid the same dates, according to an
International Olympic Committee report on the bids.

Doha, which didn’t make the shortlist of candidates,
applied to host the 2020 Games between Sept. 20 and Oct. 20, and
the IOC accepted the period in principle, according to a report
from the body.

“The health of the athletes is clearly a top priority for
the IOC, but at this stage it is too early to comment on any
specific measures, such as holding the marathon in the morning
at Beijing 2008,” Andrew Mitchell, media relations manager for
the IOC said in an e-mail.

October Games

Other countries have held the Olympics at later dates.
Sydney held the Olympics in late September to early October in
2000, as did Seoul in 1988, while Mexico held the Games in
October 1968.

FIFA President Sepp Blatter faces opposition to
rescheduling the 2022 World Cup from Europe’s biggest soccer
leagues, clubs, and broadcasting rights owner, which are
concerned changing the dates would disrupt national leagues and
clash with other sporting events.

FIFA may have “made a mistake” in awarding the World Cup
to Qatar in the summer, Blatter told Inside World Football.

U.S. Soccer President Sunil Gulati said last week FIFA
officials should have held more discussions about Qatar’s summer
climate before the Middle Eastern country was awarded hosting
rights in December 2010.

Heatstroke Deaths

The combination of humidity and heat in Japan could be
debilitating as athletes seek to compete at the highest level.
More than a dozen people in Japan died of heatstroke and
thousands were hospitalized last month when Tokyo’s high climbed
to 38 degrees.

“The longer the event, typically the higher the risk of
accumulation of heat in the body, with possible symptoms of heat
exhaustion or even heatstroke in the worst case,” said
Loughborough University’s Havenith. The 10-kilometer race and
the marathon would be among those posing the biggest risk, he
said.

The Texas-based University Interscholastic League, created
by the University of Texas to provide guidance to athletic
teachers, has produced manuals with recommendations to coaches
on how much exercise to do during summer months, including
limits on how many hours and how frequently student athletes can
practice.

“The maximum length of any single practice session is
three hours,” said Kate Hector, a spokeswoman for UIL. “All of
these rules were created to help prevent heat illness or heat
related injuries.”

Marathon Race

At the Athens Olympics women’s marathon in 2004, eight of
the 66 women who finished the course took more than three hours,
according to Marathon Guide. Temperatures reached 95 degrees
Fahrenheit during the race.

“Running a marathon would be especially difficult,”
Weather Caster’s Iwaya said. “Even regular exercise is
difficult in that heat.”

At least six athletes died during a 2011 heat wave in the
U.S. south, according to a report from ABC News.

Tokyo’s August average high and humidity this year
generated a heat index of 112 degrees Fahrenheit (44 degrees
Celsius), according to the U.S. National Weather Service, which
designates that level as a “danger” zone for prolonged
exposure or strenuous activity.

“Tokyo could try changing the times of events to cooler
periods,” Iwaya said. “But it’s already 30 degrees Celsius in
the morning.”