As I understand it from various Internet Sources™,planes taking off from airfields in hostile areas are required to make a hellishly steep climb to avoid ground-based anti-aircraft fire. In this case, the load seems to have shifted during that climb, which cause the nose to go way up, and then the plane was too steep to create lift, stalled, and crashed. If it's true, the Loadmaster won't be sleeping for a long, long time.

The current working theory is that something in the cargo hold broke loose during the steep takeoff (ground threat avoidance procedure) and slid all the way back, basically rendering the plane helpless.

Once the load broke free the CG shifted so far aft they didn't have the pitch authority required to bring the nose back down, the only way that nose was going to come down again was through a full stall. I can't think of any way they could have recovered it once the load shifted, there wasn't enough control authority in the elevators or the rudders (roll wings vertical first) to make the nose come back down. The crash could have been a bit different but no matter what they did, the end result would have been the same. This is one of those sad cases where there were just no viable options available to the crew, they were dead as soon as that load managed to break free at the worse possible time.

eraser8:NewportBarGuy: Plenty of time for all of them to have that pit of your stomach "Oh, fark. This is it."

On an intellectual level, we all know we're going to die. Someday.

But, to know it's going to happen in the next few seconds...well, I just don't know how the brain manages to cope with that kind of knowledge.

I fell off a 65 foot drop inside a pitch dark cave in the middle of Kentucky when I was 15 years old during a spelunking trip that turned into a 20 second nightmare of injury and pain (I walked into a chute). The fall lasted maybe two seconds, and the resulting tumble lasted the other 18 seconds.

I can say with all honesty that you aren't processing the thought of dying. You're barely processing what's actually happening at the time. They were experiencing (based on the video) sudden changes in G force that would probably leave everyone confused except the pilots.

It would be far worse to be in a plane that ran out of fuel and took two minutes to land. That gives you time to think about it.

Lsherm:I can say with all honesty that you aren't processing the thought of dying. You're barely processing what's actually happening at the time. They were experiencing (based on the video) sudden changes in G force that would probably leave everyone confused except the pilots.

One of the seven dead had the title of Loadmaster. I'd assume that person was *the* loadmaster for this flight.

vossiewulf:I will bet a very large sum that they were working the problem all the way to the ground.

If it really was a center of gravity shift, then there is likely nothing that could have been done. At the very best they could have tried to land in a way that would make the crash survivable, but even that would be doubtful.

Imagine the plane as a seesaw. A seesaw is held up in the middle by a post, and similarly the plane is held up in the middle by the wings. If you have two skinny kids on the seesaw then the plane balances fine. If one of the kids is a little chunky then the plane can cope- the plane has elevators (the horizontal bits at the rear) that allow the pilot to exert force at the end of the seesaw and counteract the fact that one of the kids is a little larger than the other. However, if you have one skinny kid and one enormously fat kid there's nothing you can really do. The fat kid at the end just has too much leverage, and you'd need an equally fat kid on the other end (or the ability to exert a very large aerodynamic force) to counter-balance. Once the fat kid jumps on the end, the nose of the plane flips up, the wings loose their airflow and stall, and suddenly there is nothing holding the plane up anymore.

Even if they had their problem at a high altitude there would likely be nothing they could have done, save for incredible luck or the grace of God.

Fubini:Even if they had their problem at a high altitude there would likely be nothing they could have done, save for incredible luck or the grace of God.

Yep, they were boned. If they'd had enough altitude for the nose to drop, the cargo would have shifted forward again, making the plane too noseheavy to recover.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the standard procedure for ground threat avoidance is to start with a crazy zoom climb like that. It would make more sense to me for them to go balls-to-the-wall fast on a low trajectory (staying in ground clutter so as to present a less obvious target for handheld SAMs), make a sharp turn and then do the fast climb-out when enough speed had been built up to ensure a high rate of climb. That might not be within the airframe limitations of a 747 though, I don't know.

It's not so much the airframe as it is the wings and at what angle do the start stalling. While I can't find the actual info, I recall talking to someone who had worked at Boeing and said a 747 could easily handle a roll and other things that an airliner never does under normal operation.

Confabulat:eraser8: well, I just don't know how the brain manages to cope with that kind of knowledge.

yeah and no one ever tells us, either.

That's not entirely true. British Airways Flight 9 has been studied extensively by psychologists, because pretty much everyone onboard that flight justifiably thought they were experiencing the last minutes of their lives. Turns out people are in general suprisingly okay with knowing they're about to die.

Cthulhu_is_my_homeboy:Fubini: Even if they had their problem at a high altitude there would likely be nothing they could have done, save for incredible luck or the grace of God.

Yep, they were boned. If they'd had enough altitude for the nose to drop, the cargo would have shifted forward again, making the plane too noseheavy to recover.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the standard procedure for ground threat avoidance is to start with a crazy zoom climb like that. It would make more sense to me for them to go balls-to-the-wall fast on a low trajectory (staying in ground clutter so as to present a less obvious target for handheld SAMs), make a sharp turn and then do the fast climb-out when enough speed had been built up to ensure a high rate of climb. That might not be within the airframe limitations of a 747 though, I don't know.

Ground clutter only applies to sensors looking down. Any handheld SAM, by definition, is looking up, and there's nothing to see but sky and a big, huge heat source. Best to get that heat as far away from the ground as fast as possible.

Radak:Confabulat: eraser8: well, I just don't know how the brain manages to cope with that kind of knowledge.

yeah and no one ever tells us, either.

That's not entirely true. British Airways Flight 9 has been studied extensively by psychologists, because pretty much everyone onboard that flight justifiably thought they were experiencing the last minutes of their lives. Turns out people are in general suprisingly okay with knowing they're about to die.

Pilot of that flight had Big Ben sized-balls:

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going again. I trust you are not in too much distress."

Pentaxian:Radak: Confabulat: eraser8: well, I just don't know how the brain manages to cope with that kind of knowledge.

yeah and no one ever tells us, either.

That's not entirely true. British Airways Flight 9 has been studied extensively by psychologists, because pretty much everyone onboard that flight justifiably thought they were experiencing the last minutes of their lives. Turns out people are in general suprisingly okay with knowing they're about to die.

Pilot of that flight had Big Ben sized-balls:

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going again. I trust you are not in too much distress."

When volcanic ash stopped a Jumbo at 37,000ft

"Good evening ladies and gentlemen. This is your captain speaking.We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped.We are all doing our damnedest to get them going again.I trust you are not in too much distress."

Eh, I dunno, the deck angle is assumed and the flight path should and will likely prove to be much more smooth and parabolic looking once they get the FDR data. Gives you an idea, though.

fatbear:Ground clutter only applies to sensors looking down. Any handheld SAM, by definition, is looking up, and there's nothing to see but sky and a big, huge heat source. Best to get that heat as far away from the ground as fast as possible.

Well, the "look down" part is half true. Unless a ground-based antenna is super-elevated, they get all sorts of clutter, too. It also depends on atmospheric conditions, ducting, etc. Being this is in Bagram and there are mountains, I'm sure there is all sorts of ground clutter. But you can gate most of the stuff that isn't moving out, which leaves your fast-moving targets.

Low-level (nap of the earth) flying is designed more to stay in the shadow of the sensor, created by the curvature of the earth. However, it can also be used to mask when you fly behind the inevitable obstructions - trees, buildings, etc., so there's that.

Charlie Freak:Eh, I dunno, the deck angle is assumed and the flight path should and will likely prove to be much more smooth and parabolic looking once they get the FDR data. Gives you an idea, though.

fatbear:Ground clutter only applies to sensors looking down. Any handheld SAM, by definition, is looking up, and there's nothing to see but sky and a big, huge heat source. Best to get that heat as far away from the ground as fast as possible.

Well, the "look down" part is half true. Unless a ground-based antenna is super-elevated, they get all sorts of clutter, too. It also depends on atmospheric conditions, ducting, etc. Being this is in Bagram and there are mountains, I'm sure there is all sorts of ground clutter. But you can gate most of the stuff that isn't moving out, which leaves your fast-moving targets.

Low-level (nap of the earth) flying is designed more to stay in the shadow of the sensor, created by the curvature of the earth. However, it can also be used to mask when you fly behind the inevitable obstructions - trees, buildings, etc., so there's that.

You keep talking about radar. The handheld SAMs there are IR. No ground clutter. End of story.

vossiewulf:eraser8: But, to know it's going to happen in the next few seconds...well, I just don't know how the brain manages to cope with that kind of knowledge.

They were professional pilots who had chosen to fly a dangerous cargo route. I will bet a very large sum that they were working the problem all the way to the ground.

yes at 5 seconds in you can hear the spool up of engines going full throttle. It's amazing they were able to level the wings before impact. They were fighting all the way down, they would have recovered had they not ran out of room

Pentaxian:"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going again. I trust you are not in too much distress."

As I understand it from various Internet Sources™,planes taking off from airfields in hostile areas are required to make a hellishly steep climb to avoid ground-based anti-aircraft fire. In this case, the load seems to have shifted during that climb, which cause the nose to go way up, and then the plane was too steep to create lift, stalled, and crashed. If it's true, the Loadmaster won't be sleeping for a long, long time.

That article fails to mention that the ash had sandblasted the windows on the cockpit to the point of being opaque, and Capt. Moody had to land the plane leaning to the left and looking through a tiny sliver of window at the edge that was still transparent. That man truly did have giant brass balls.