Sunday, January 13, 2008

They call him "Mr. Sunshine"

"[R]ight now it looks as if the economy is stalling..." — Paul Krugman, September 2002

"We have a sluggish economy, which is, for all practical purposes, in recession..." — Paul Krugman, May 2003

"An oil-driven recession does not look at all far-fetched." — Paul Krugman, May 2004

"[A] mild form of stagflation - rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment - has already arrived." — Paul Krugman, April 2005

"If housing prices actually started falling, we'd be looking at [an economy pushed] right back into recession. That's why it's so ominous to see signs that America's housing market ... is approaching the final, feverish stages of a speculative bubble." — Paul Krugman, May 2005

"In fact, a growing number of economists are using the "R" word [i.e., "recession"] for 2006." - Paul Krugman, August 2005

"But based on what we know now, there’s an economic slowdown coming." - Paul Krugman, August 2006

"this kind of confusion about what’s going on is what typically happens when the economy is at a turning point, when an economic expansion is about to turn into a recession" - Paul Krugman, December 2006

"Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... [T]he odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006

Well, it is a selection of lines specifically picked, from six-plus years of two columns a week, to portray grimness.

"To me, he's clearly hoping for a recession."

Or--alternatively--he's expecting one. If you believe that unchecked deficit spending, energy price increases, and a housing price bubble are things that will lead to a recession, and you observe these events in the world, then you expect a recession.

The simple fact that one expects or predicts a bad outcome does not mean one is "hoping for" it.