Should barely a third of the voters make it to the polls next November, President Clinton will spend his last two White House years dependent on the kindness - and the subpoena power - of his Republican enemies.

Using numbers from past elections together with turnout figures from this spring's primary contests, Gans projects a voter turnout of just 36 percent. That would be the lowest participation by Americans in national elections since 1942, the first year of our involvement in World War II.

This is grim news for Clinton and the Democrats.

The one glimmer of hope lies in the West.

"The turnout in the primaries this year was a record low," reports election expert Gans, "with the exception of California, which had a bump-up."

That "bump-up" in Golden State voting was propelled, Gans says, by a higher turnout among labor and Latino voters who felt threatened by statewide ballot initiatives restricting unions and banning bilingual education.

This makes the Golden State "one of the wild cards" this year.

"The California governor's race could turn out to be interesting and mobilizing," Gans speculates. "Gray Davis and Dan Lungren have very high positives."

One thing that could hurt the turnout - and the Democrats here, he says - would be a battle of negative TV ad campaigns that deflates voter interest as fast as it does the candidates' reputations.

Another hazard would be misplaced focus on issues. Instead of talking about abortion rights, which holds particular appeal to better-off voters, Gans suggests the Democrats might be wiser to focus on kitchen table issues that matter to the regular working folk whose attendance - or truancy - will decide the election.

Gans reminds us: "People with more money and higher education occupy a much greater portion of the electorate in mid-term elections than they do in presidential elections."

Many among the poor, the less-educated and the young find other things to do.

For the Democrats, this presents a nasty challenge. To win control of the House they lost in 1994, the party needs to win just 11 more seats. But to do so, it must engage the hearts and minds of an electorate that is barely willing to turn its eyes and ears to the contest.