Gold prices: Let the wild rumpus begin!

As everyone begins drumming the buy-gold, buy-gold, buy-gold beat, is it time for gold's parabolic price explosion, shooting sharply up and falling just as quickly back down?

ByJoshua M. Brown, Guest bloggerNovember 12, 2010

'Let the wild rumpus begin!' shouts young Max (center, in the crown) in the 2009 movie 'Where the Wild Things Are,' based on the beloved children's book of the same title. Gold prices are primed to begin their own wild rumpus, as prices fly past their past highs (in non-inflation-adjusted dollars) and may skyrocket in a speculative flurry.

That doesn't tell me there's a top in gold - that tells me that the parabolic, hyper-speculative phase is imminent. You know the one I'm talking about. Where the chart becomes an Empire State Building and Donald Trump announces the first-ever Mine & Casino somewhere out west.

"Gold is not just another commodity," Jim Cramer told the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show as he once again urged investors to put up to 20% of their portfolios into gold....Cramer once again gave the nod to Eldorado Gold and Agnico-Eagle Mines, along with the speculative Novagold, a stock which he owns for his charitable trust

Seriously, after a ten year run, a recommendation to the least sophisticated audience imaginable to put 20% of their assets in gold. Yes, he said "assets", not "portfolio" on the show, but we'll assume he meant "portfolio" and give him the benefit of the doubt. Oh, and he sent his viewers to buy the individual miners now instead of the metal itself. Oy vey.

Many of the large cap miners have lagged gold, and I get Cramer's point about how small their combined market caps are - but still.

I'm not a Cramer-basher, I've always liked the guy, but this is bananas.

Richard Russell, a phenomenal newsletter writer (Dow Theory Letter) but horrendous forecaster of anything, is now saying that gold has entered the thrid and final bull market phase - the speculative phase. I think he's right...

Most bull markets progress in three psychological phases.

I believe the first phase of the gold bull market has passed. It’s over. This is the phase where students of great values take their initial positions.

I believe we are deep into the second phase of the gold bull market. This is the phase where the institutions and funds join in the bull market show.

Often, more money is made in the third or speculative phase of a bull market than is made in the first and second phases combined. This can mean that the late-comers to bull markets often make a fortune, more than those who had the courage to buy early in the game, but they have to have fortitude to sit in the highly volatile second/third phases.

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