What could Brexit mean for Zimbabwe?

Zimbabwe shares
political and economic ties with the UK as it played a key supporting role in colonial
times and in the immediate post-independence era. Over time, political tensions
saw the ties weaken as Zimbabwe grew increasingly isolated from the global
community. The exit of Robert Mugabe saw rising hope of the prospect of
re-establishing the severed ties with the U.K. Newly instated UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson even hailed it as a “moment of hope” for Zimbabwe. However,
recent political developments in both nations have seen hopes of renewed ties
weaken.

For the UK,
the issue of Brexit has increasingly dominated the political landscape,
culminating in the exit of Prime Minister Theresa May following her failure to
deliver an agreeable Brexit deal. In line with that Johnson came to the fore under
the promise of delivering a swift Brexit, deal or no deal. As a resolution to
the long standing debacle seemingly approaches, it is worthwhile to consider
the possible implications for Zimbabwean relations with the U.K.

The
sentiment shared globally among SMEs for years is that of all possible Brexit
scenarios, businesses fear a “no deal” situation the most. If the U.K. leaves
the EU without a deal on Oct. 31, say the documents, the country
could face…

Shortages
of fresh food, medicine, and fuel

Disruptions
at ports for several months

The
closure of two oil refineries

Social
unrest and the restoration of a “hard border” with Ireland

Michael
Gove, the minister leading no-deal preparations, said the docs were out of
date but conceded that leaving the EU without a deal would cause
“bumps in the road.” Meanwhile industry groups say there are only so
many bumps small businesses can absorb. The latest statistics on
UK trade illustrate the significant economic ties with the EU, with the union
accounting for 45.6% of UK exports and 64% of imports in 2018.

The effects
of a no deal Brexit could stretch into everything for the UK, from banking and
insurance to lawyers, musicians and chefs. No deal also means immediately
leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice and Europol, its
law enforcement body. Membership of dozens of EU bodies that govern rules on
everything from medicines to trade marks would end. Currently the standards of
products produced in the UK have to conform to EU standards, changes on this
front may also see some benchmarks for quality either dipping or rising.

The EU
membership required the UK to contribute £9bn a year towards funding of the
regional block. This will no longer be required in a “no deal” Brexit. Pro
“no deal” politicians believe this money is better served on home soil
promoting British sovereignty and development.
New prime minister Boris Johnson said he’s going to take the U.K. out of
the EU by Halloween, deal or no deal.

A no deal
Brexit would also mean the UK service industry would lose its guaranteed access
to the EU single market. Additionally, the added taxes and tariffs that will be
charged to UK manufactured goods and services could make UK exports less
competitive. This is expected to shrink the UK economy until access to new
markets is established. It is that there that observers suggest could be an
opportunity for the African market to create synergy with the UK and benefit
from the scenario. For Zimbabwe there is undeniably scope to improve trade
ties, with only US$4.9 million exports to the UK since 2017 versus US$396
million in imports over the same period.

There is
still a sense of uncertainty on what Boris Johnson’s policy on Africa and
Zimbabwe will be going forward. Some would argue Zimbabwe has the advantage of
potentially capitalizing on its history with the UK to negotiate for a
bilateral trade and migration deal. According to statistics, the UK’s biggest
exports to the EU are business and financial services while its biggest import
travel services, which include tourism services. Both present mutual
opportunities given the local need to develop the financial services sectors
and the expected role of tourism as a key economic sector. Beyond that,
Zimbabwe represents a potential market for UKs manufactured EU exports like
pharmaceuticals and industrial equipment.

The
nationalistic posturing behind his hard-line stance on Brexit suggests whatever
dealings will occur between Zimbabwe and the post Brexit UK will be primarily
geared towards the latter’s favour. In any case, the UK has always been firm on
what it expects from Zimbabwe in order to improve relations and engagement.
While it is more than likely that the Brexit could yield opportunities,
Zimbabwe is not exactly at the front of the line to exploit them. In that
sense, it is difficult to see any developments around bilateral relations that
will not be exploitative or extractive, unless the local government yields to some
of the reforms demanded by the UK. The most recent developments in diplomatic
relations suggest the window of opportunity is getting smaller with the UK
minister for Africa, Harriett Baldwin saying the country supports an extension
of EU sanctions against Zimbabwe and will not back its plan to return to the
Commonwealth.