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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

17 Responses

A couple of quick questions before I go off to work. Why did you go from a 40 down to a 25 list? I think I might know the answer but asking anyway. Is the depth that strong not to include Ismael Guillon, Felix Perez, Josh Smith, Daniel Renken, Josh Ravin, Ryan Wright, Brodie Greene, Drew Hayes and Denis Phipps etc. If you were to do a top 40 would or could those players be on it? What happened to Jonathan Correa and Danny Dorn? Okay sorry that’s more than a couple, I got on a roll kind of.

Ismael Guillon – had a horrible year in a Rookie league.
Josh Smith – old for the level, not overwhelming stuff.
Daniel Renken – probably in the 25-30 range.
Josh Ravin – inconsistent and has never really done much.
Ryan Wright – another 25-30 range guy, could move up quickly though.
Brodie Greene – profiles as a Utility guy and that’s just not exciting.
Drew Hayes – limited to relief
Denis Phipps – older, has had only one good year. Needs to repeat it.
Jonathan Correa – Suspended all of 2011 for lying about his age. Was suspended in 2008 for using PEDs. Sat out all of 2009 with Tommy John. So… yeah, I think he’s off the map.
Danny Dorn – I’d be surprised if the Reds didn’t release him.

Predictions:
Devin Mesoraco NL RoY
David Vidal ends 2012 in AA and a top 100 prospect in baseball
JC Sulburan posts a sub 3.5 ERA
Juan Duran hits 30+ HR
Next years surprise prospect to rise in the system is Mitch Clarke

I like the predictions but have a question. How do you define prospect on the rise? Did he have to be someone outside your current top 25? Is it the player who moves up the most slots in your current ranking? You are already predicting Vidal moves from #14 to #2 (assuming Meso and Alonso graduate).

Prospect on the rise will just be a prospect who greatly improves their ranking and recognition. Vidal would only be guaranteed to go to #2 by my prediction if the Reds only have 2 top 100 guys next year. I’m thinking they get more than that. If I had to make a prediction based on graduations and a wild stab at what they do next year i’ll say the following make the 2013 Top Top: Grandam, Corcino, Hamilton, Stephenson (BA loves their first rounders that do well), Torreyes, Vidal. That’d be 6 guys, without YRod or Duran (who might make it if he does hit 30+ HR) or Sulburan (whom I think is under rated by many)

From last year’s list, the biggest riser is Corcino (from 25 to 3) and then Torreyes (unranked to 11th) and HRod (unranked to 13th). Stephenson is the highest newcomer (#6). Junior Arias is the biggest drop (from 12 to unranked) along with Guillon and Correa who also dropped off the list from being ranked 13th and 15th respectively. 10 of the 25 make their first appearance in the top 25, 14 returned from last year’s list, and their was one returnee from pre-2010 (Sulbaran). From last year, 3 players graduate and 8 players dropped off the list (Arias, Guillon, Correa, Joseph, Valaika, Dorn, Perez, and Puckett). As most of those players are still in the plan, that makes for another deep farm system.

My two cents: I would have Cozart in the top 5 and Boxberger in the top 10 as I value their potential contribution a little higher. I also would have had Duran in the list somewhere near #20 over someone like Lutz. Still..I can’t argue much with the list. Great job.

I thought it was extremely well done. Actually only one surprise on the list. The best way to have people come back to this site on a regular basis is to think before you type. It is obvious Doug took his time and produced a quality list. Much better than the list I saw a couple of weeks ago where McMyne made the top 10.

Grandal–has there been any talk of trying him at third? Just getting greedy here imagining Mez at C, Alonso at 1b, and Grandal at third.
YRod–I agree with some of the other posters that it would be nice to see some production before canonizing this guy.
I know Doug gives added value to players at premium position and potential upside, but I almost wonder if there’s a way to take it a step further. Specifically, have organizations thought to further segregate players based on something like their potential career earnings? For me, grades from A-F don’t properly filter glue guys like Miguel Cairo, all-or-nothing guys like Wily Mo Pena, and can’t miss guys like Jay Bruce.

Grandal could play first, but then again, anyone could, but his bat won’t stick. Third is a whole other animal, and it does seem that he is athletic enough to handle the move this late in the game. Mesoraco on the other hand, I think could be a league average defender at third, but he has the tools to be better defensively than Grandal at Catcher so you would not move him. I think if we have no problems with Mesoraco adjusting to the majors, Grandal will be traded. There is very little chance of any other outcome.

Doug I won’t be able to participate in the live chat. Great work on the Prospect list. In your opinion, which Pro catcher is Devin’s upside potential most comparable to. Similarly, (at any position)which former Red or current Red is his upside most comparable to?

Opening Day for the Puerto Rican Winter League……Only 4 teams this year. (San Juan does NOT have a team this year) Aroldis Chapman is NOT on any team roster today….Billy Hamilton and Neftali Soto are playing for Leones de Ponce…..David Vidal and Juan Silva are playing for manager Dave Miley on Indios de Mayaguez…..Gabriel Rosa is playing for Gigantes de Carolina……and Kris Negron is playing for Criollos de Caguas.

Yardbarker

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