Category Archives: Oppurtunity

Some recent bulletin board discussion has caught my eye and i’ve bought some Bowleven. They recently made a potentially significant discovery and the market barely reacted. I’m in and waiting for the share price to catch up.

The key points are:
There was a slowdown towards end of yr, ‘but fear of decreasing capital expenditure by miners is over done here:

‘We have also received confirmation of drilling activities from clients representing approximately 90% of our forecast revenue for 2013.”

They have planned reduction in capex 2013 which was 30m this yr. So next year if revenue is anything like this years, they will be throwing off cash, enough to fully pay off the modest 22m pounds of debt.

It was on a p/e of under 4, so its still cheap. I’m aiming for this to double and am happy to hold this long term.

I bought some SIGG on Friday after seeing a tweet about it. I’m writing this up quick so i’m vague on the details but go look for yourself. They are a closed fund that hasn’t done too well since it started several years ago. The share price has drifted and now stands a whole lot lower than the NAV. The NAV is 92p or thereabouts and the price to buy is about 55p. Ok so this disconnect between NAV and SP might continue forever…. but we have a potential catalyst.

They announced last year that they were wrapping up and liquidating the fund!! Great news for shareholders. The only catch is it will take a while. Around 35% is planned to be liquidated over 2013 and beyond that timescales are not known. Still there could be a cash return soon and this could spark interest and a narrowing of the SP and NAV.

Background: They are a manufacturer of multicrystalline silicon ingots and wafers. Business took a huge nose dive after cheap Chinese exports flooded the market. Prices fell. Over the last year they cut production, tightened their belts and planned to weather the storm, limping along until global prices picked up in the medium to long term. Share price diving all the while.

Results for 6 months ended 30th June showed….

Net assets (majority tangeable) just under 200m

Of which 122m euros is cash! (mostly won in court settlement from customer contract cut short).

There are another 2 on-going claims but one defendant probably unlikely to pay. I do not know the size of these claims or what payout they could be. From the RNS:

“We have been unable to reach a satisfactory agreement with two long-term contract customers who have been amongst the industry leaders in recent years and we are seeking resolution under the jurisdiction of the International Court of Arbitration. While successful judgements in the Group’s favour are anticipated there is increasing uncertainty as to whether one of these companies will have the financial resources to fully settle its claim.”

They repeated “make the necessary decisions during the remainder of the year to serve the best interests of shareholders.”

19th November Management Statement marks a change in tone from management – importantly they mention return of cash.

“The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board is continuing to reorganise the Group, to enable the return of cash to shareholders. The Board expects to make a further announcement before the year end.”

“The Board has now completed a strategic review of the business which has taken account of these adverse market conditions and the Group’s significant net cash balance. The outcome of this review is that the Group will carry out a radical restructuring while retaining its core production capabilities and returning excess cash to shareholders.”

“The Group intends to adjust its operations to align with anticipated sustainable short term market demand so that the ongoing business will be broadly cash neutral in 2013.”

“The Group expects to return cash to shareholders during Q2 2013 in a manner that will provide shareholders with an element of choice as to the form in which they receive the cash. Further details on the process will be announced in due course.”

So if we take a guestimate loss for second half 2012 of 20m this leaves cash of around 100m euros at year end. Company planning to be cash neutral in 2013 which I’m guessing means they won’t be burning cash and so will have much reduced need for a cash cushion. They intend to close one German factory and reduce yet further UK and German production. If we say money raised from factory closure/asset sales matches restructuring costs then we still have 100m cash, a company with around 80m net non cash assets and a current market cap of £40m at 9.5p (about 50m euros mkt cap and 11.7 cents – at £0.81/euro)

So we have twice the current share price in cash and once again in tangible assets. They could give away half their cash and you would still be holding the shares and business/assets for free. The remaining court cases could provide an added bonus.

The question remains of course just how much cash they give away but management has certainly changed strategy and language from ‘conserve’ to ‘return’ cash. I’m invested here but would like to hear from others before I plough more in.

I’ve bought some capital drilling this morning after Centamin CEY suspended operatinos in Egypt. CAPD do provide services to CEY but they also have many other customers. The drop of 40% seems well overdone. Admittedly this is only a quick glance but the company seems profitable, has varied customers and i expect some sot of share price recovery sooner rather than later. Additionally we do not know the cost, if any from suspended work for CEY in Egypt. My guess would be that CEY will still have to pay some sort of fees to CAPD.

In at 16.19p

Remember these are all personal best guesses with my own money. Hopefully this website will show how profitable investing has been for me. But of course it might just show the opposite :-/

Statement out today that indeed they plan to return cash to shareholders.

Restructuring, job losses, planning to be cash neutral next year all make me bullish about significant cash return. I have topped up on the fall, which i am very surprised about. Investors taking profits and knee jerk reactions to the loss for the year which is farily unimportant. This is a cash and assets play, ideally for shareholders the company would cease trading and liquidate.

I bought in to Nostra Terra on a punt today at 0.45p. Naughty i know but a well known private investor was tipping on twitter and after a cursory review of the investment case i jumped in. Essentially they had positive well results today and are expecting expecting well results for nearby drills very soon (next month). NTOG have a higher stake in nearby drills. If there is read across then the nearby drills will be successful and this will be a strong catalyst.

I’ve bought £500 at 9.1p. I was looking to buy when they were at just over 8p but dithered and missed my possible entry point by a penny! Their recent interim management statement hints at a return of cash to shareholders. I’ve writtenabout this company before and their massive cash pile. They have been crippled by low prices for their products and their strategy was to conserve cash, cut costs and limp along until prices picked up, perhaps in a few years time. The latest statement shows a marked change of tone: http://www.pvcrystalox.com/scripts/php/rns_viewer.php?id=20506230

“The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board is continuing to reorganise the Group, to enable the return of cash to shareholders. The Board expects to make a further announcement before the year end. ”

Briliant news and an expected catalyst by year end for share price movement (year year or financial year i wonder). Best case scenario for shareholders is a winding up of the busniess and redistribution of all cash – worth twice the current share price. Worst case, who knows, but just 20% giveaway could be 3.5p.

Half year report out today. Share price reacted well to the news.
http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/20516659-12869/MSI-Half_Yearly_Report_html

239p £44m market cap. 10m cash. Healthy asset sheet.

Profits lower than H1 2011 but they have 25% higher value of orders on hand than H2 last year (i wonder if this means they think revenues will be 25% higher than H2 revenues). If so then profit could take a small jump and P/E currently perhaps around 8 would fall to maybe 6 or 5!

Vague I know but I can’t find accurate forecasts and this is a quick glance.

The chairman finishes with a caveat.
“All matters considered, the Board has a good measure of confidence as to the full year outlook for the Group, subject to there being no further deterioration in the global economy that could adversely affect our two industrial engineering divisions.”

Solar panel maker that has been savaged by cheap Chinese competition. I can’t recall the details of what’s gone on in the industry but essentially there has been mass over supply. At the half year point they had 122m cash. And at a glance about another 100m of assets too. Their strategy seemed to be to cut costs, reduce production and limp along until prices recovered – using their cash pile slowly. Of course shareholders might like the company to voluntarily fold and cash to be distributed.

First half loss was about 12m. Market capitalisation is £35m.

In the management statement released yesterday ( from the ‘outlook’ paragraph):

‘’The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board is continuing to reorganise the Group, to enable the return of cash to shareholders. The Board expects to make a further announcement before the year end.’’

From the half year report ‘outlook’ section:

‘’While the Group continues to believe in the positive long-term outlook for PV, it is mindful of the intensely competitive environment which is likely to persist in the short to medium-term and which has already led to many companies exiting the industry, either voluntarily or through insolvency. The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board will make the necessary decisions during the remainder of the year to serve the best interests of shareholders.’’

This looks like a change of attitude within the company. Just how much cash they might return is a guess at the moment. Of course with a dividend payout the share price will fall but if a payout is announced, then I expect the SP to jump before the ex div date.