Friday, March 25, 2011

Ok folks. Now most of you know from reading my blog that I have a stockpile of Pyrite Ore in the slim chance that we will have the ability to prospect epic gems from them.

Take them out...seriously. You don't need earplugs, you are reading this, not listening to me.....I know you don't want to read another post about them, but quite a few have been asking again, so I am telling, a bit more in depth than I have hit before.

What is Alto doing to get prepared? What am I expecting? What am I gonna do? Bear with me, and I will explain it. Trust me, you will learn something. If not, then you didn't read all the way through, or you missed something. So pay attention for the two minutes it takes to read this. =)

The Guts of Figuring Out Buyout Prices/ What if the Ore doesn't Prospect Epics?

Now before you say "Just use OreCrusher". Nah. Past that point now, aren't we? For almost three months now, I have had 3 tabs full. Yes, I have bought some since then, but only at my "price point". By that I mean, as an example, I figure that 1 stack nets 5 Volatile Earth and 3 "blue" gems:

So if your Volatile Earth is 20g, then figure that times five, so 100g. Your "blue" gems? I figure what a Inferno Ruby (67g) and an Amberjewel (4g) sell for, add em together, and thats my "estimate" for blues proccing. That isn't too techincal is it? Easy is good. Add them (100g + 71g = 171g per stack). There is my "break even". Make sense? Ok. Good.

Now this will work for NOW. Not later, not after fluctuating market prices, but you are safe to purchase at this price. Obviously, this is once again a break even price. So to profit (which is what we do), you need a lower price on them.

What if Da Epix End Up Disenchanting From Pyrite Ore?

Now to the guts of Pyrite Ore. This is all what we want to hear, right?

"How many epics do I expect to see from one stack?" When I hear this, I shudder. Not factoring past prospecting, I am figuring 1 per two stacks. Nothing else. This is my estimate, and I am sticking to it. It might be more, but it won't be less. Feel me?

Ok...now.....the question is how much will the sexy epic gems go for? The first two days, I am expecting nothing less than 2-3K uncut. Cut? Depends. I will probably hit 3-4K. In the next week, they will settle around the 1K mark, and 2K for the "hard to find" cuts (ones that you don't have, because you didn't have enough Jewelcrafting Tokens saved up from when I told you not to spend em around a month ago).

So with those estimates, I am thinking I will get 1-2K per 2 stacks of Pyrite I have. So one tab will net around 100-200K, pending sales of course. This is why we stockpile, right? And you can bet your ass I will take a day off and just chill next to my AH prospecting, cutting, relisting, collecting gold, well, you get it. Oven and over. *This is IF you can prospect them, mind you....

What? You don't have a Jewelcrafter? Gosh. Alright. A stockpile here and there will still be a good idea due to the resale value. With a gem coming out of every two stacks (estimate again, don't hate), Pyrite Ore stacks will jump up to around 500g per stack. If not more. So you can always resell. Post some up the first few days of the "release", just save some for other things....

Oh yeah, all the AH'ers will be focused on these gems, so this is also the time to jump into "do not enter" markets as well. Have you been bullied out of Glyphs? Get in there. Odds are, there will be less undercuts and lesser competition from the release. Once again, we prosper.

Transmute Alchemists, Know Your Role

What I see happening here is my SURE bet. I have no doubt in my mind that Alchemist's will have access for transmuting. I imagine there will be a cooldown, but really, who cares? Epix, baby. And you can make them.

For this, I am stockpiling Blue Gems. Now I know I have waaay more than I can ever use, but there is a point to that. I want stock. Alot of the "power shufflers" right now are vendoring their blues, because on some servers, they are basically vendor price on some anyways. Others are getting their ass kicked by making "The Perforators". Biggest. Waste. Ever. Who ever thought of that and told folks needs a swift kick, as that is the worst way to get rid of them. Sorry, got sidetracked there. You want a stock so you can sell them in the AH, as the prices will rise. Not tenfold or anything, but I am guessing 20-50ish percent overnight.

Now they will need something additional, the obvious choice there is Volatiles. Oh, what I am doing? I have I stack of each on my alchemist (200). I don't want to be the guy scouring the AH and begging to get them, so if you are so inclined and your bankroll allows, I would recommend this too.

Busy, busy weeking starting tonight, so not sure if I can rock a weekend post or not....so if I do not have one posted, don't freak, I will be back Monday...Have a great weekend kids!

After re-reading it myself, I see that I didn't mention why I picked Inferno Ruby and AmberJewels. I pick the highest price blue gem and the lowest price gem...a quick check and extrememly accurate. =)

To answer your question, I haven't touched the Pyrite Ore for a few weeks now in any "real" quantity. A few here, a few there when I see at least a 30ish gold profit. But the purchase point changes depending if I got something more profitable going too.

Now a quick hit on other ore's, I will normally snatch Obsidum for 45g, but will pay up to 75g/stack (still profitable in quantities).

Hahaha. On the road...Got a call and when I got back, I tapped post comment. Left ya hanging there...

To finish, Elementium I do not pay more than 40g. Period. I have too many blues anyways, I will leave them in the AH for the other folks out there, but if you don't have a stockpile for your alchemist, Elementium is the way to go to stockpile em!

That said, I cannot honestly believe Blizzard would A) make a new type of ore (there are already technically six in Cata, given the Rich varieties), or B) introduce epic gems in a way that JCs would not have access to. Ergo, I believe Pyrite = epic gem prospecting at some point in the future. In the meantime, prices continue to crash on my realm due to bots, and I have been picking up stacks for 60g. Yes, 60g Pyrite.

Oh, I am not sure. I just am figuring here, Az hit a good point on the comment above you on that. I always "lowball" my numbers. Those numbers are from quite a while back (when Blizz introduced the Volatile Earth "drop") when I prospected 100 stacks. My exact numbers were higher than I posted (and these were per stack):

5.8 Volatile Earth3.4 "blue" gems1.9 "green" gems

A while back I posted numbers that from milling a TON of herbs, and the more you mill, the more RNG averages (as you know). I got quite a bit of hatemail on my numbers being way too high. After investigation, I decided when I posted from that point on, I would "lowball" numbers, as it keeps me outta trouble, and is more profit for my readers (if they use my system).

If you have prospected that much Pyrite, then you know how the RNG is really jacked up. On some stacks, I would four blues, and never receive a green. On other stacks, I would get one blue and 4 greens. Talk about Volatile, huh?

My question to you is in your experience with all that ore, are the above numbers accurate compared to what you have found? Not comparing what the end result in items, but the end result in value of prospecting? I have used this baseline on multiple servers and it's very close.

Jewelcrafting dust may also come from prospecting pyrite in order to buy tokens. Whats your opinion on when or if this is likely to happen?

Epics will also come from (maybe) the jc fire prism which may significantly increase the supply. With this in mind is it worth 'stockpiling' certain common gems to prevent congestion when creating the prisms. I'm thinking the red/purple ones?

Since we have a daily quest available to us for tokens, I don't forsee an extra option to pull dust from the Pyrite.

You know Bobbins, I never even thought about that one. It has a cooldown already. You might have a very good point there. You definitely get Alto's Seal of Approval on that! I can see where that would be a possibility, or at least some style of it in one way or another....Maybe a type of "Torched" prism or something using blues to proc a Epic....

Lol! After checking your link, I do remember your post, but I must have skipped over the part that mentioned the prism, as I would have most def left a comment! Here I thought this was a new option that I hadn't though of or heard yet....

I hate the fact that sometimes I just skim through posts that people do. I am a bad reader in that sense. DAMMIT!

Not to be nit-picky but you said 4g for the "low" price of amberjewel... but they vendor for 5g so instead of selling them on the AH, vendoring them yields a higher munniezs... the only reason I bring this but is because this now will raise the buy price of the ore.!