Wednesday 18th June: Daily technical outlook and review.

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For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming the opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

A rally in price has been seen from demand at 1.35036-1.35312, where the majority of the sellers around the high (marked with an arrow) 1.35791 have been consumed.

The high needed to be consumed for the demand area (levels above) to be confirmed. Buyers have proved their strength around this level against any selling opposition, for that reason, a pending buy order has now been set in place of the confirmation order originally placed at 1.35378.

If price decides to rally from where it is currently trading at to the round number 1.36000, then we will have to rethink our strategy as that is our first take profit level (see below) from demand just below (levels above).

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen around demand (1.33995-1.34298) at 1.34368. This demand area will more than likely see some sort of reaction due to its location seen to the left.

A pending buy order (Green line) has been set at 1.35378 just above demand at 1.35036-1.35312. The rationale behind this is because buyers have likely consumed the majority of the sellers lurking around the high (marked with an arrow) 1.35791, thus clearing the path for higher prices. A small retracement will likely be seen to collect more buyers for the rally higher, thus triggering our pending buy order.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) seen at 1.36955 just below supply at 1.37235-1.37005 are set here since this level remains untouched, meaning unfilled orders are likely still set around this area.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line)are visible below the minor resistance 1.36666 at 1.36625, this level has proved valid, but still needs to be confirmed due to a spike/wick (circled) seen above resistance, which may have consumed most of the sellers originally there. Do be on your guard with these sell orders; the higher-timeframes are indicating that higher prices may be seen this week.

Most likely scenario: With price likely having already consumed the majority of the sellers around the high 1.35791, a path north may have been cleared for the buyers. Price will likely retrace back to the origin around demand below at 1.35036-1.35312, a rally will then subsequently follow to at least the round number 1.36000 above.

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

Price action on this timeframe looks a right mess at the moment, wicks and tails are seen in all directions. The sellers are yet to consume the ‘mini low’ at 1.69221 marked with an arrow, nevertheless, minor support seen at 1.69431 has been hit (marked with a circle), which appeared to slightly consume the buyers in and around this area.

Now, even with sellers attempting to consume buyers at the minor support area just mentioned above, this does not mean a pending sell order can now be placed where our current confirmation sell order is sitting. Sellers will have to try harder than that, and at least attempt to consume the ‘mini low’ mentioned above for a pending sell order to be allocated.

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the round number 1.67000 at 1.67043, this area will likely see a reaction due to the amount of credible touches this level has seen, making it an area to watch out for.

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen at 1.67610 just above demand at 1.67378-1.67583. A pending order is valid here due to the momentum away from the demand area, indicating orders may be left unfilled here.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.68000 at 1.68038. A reaction may be likely here because of the way pro money used this level to rally prices higher with force, a quick change in direction like this likely indicates pro money activity, thus, all of their orders may have not been filled at that time. The reason a pending order is not used here is because pro money, on a regular basis perform deep stop hunts around big figure levels (1.68000), and these tails/wicks can be huge sometimes, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

No pending sell orders (green line) are seen in the current market environment.

The P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) set at 1.69696 just below supply at 1.69963-1.69726 still remains active. Price, however, still will need to convincingly consume buyers around the low (marked with an arrow) at 1.69221 below before a pending sell order is permitted.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: (Active-awaiting confirmation)1.69696 (SL: More than likely will be at 1.70030 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Most likely scenario: The likely scenario has not changed much from the last analysis. Price is likely still heading south from supply at 1.69963-1.69726, but we may see a lot of choppy price action before this materializes.

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

A quick reminder of the daily timeframe shows sellers exhibiting a little more interest than before within supply at 0.94468-0.93758. Be that as it may, we must not forget that this supply area is possibly weak, as the wick/spike (circled) likely consumed most of the sellers in and around this area, so as always, remain aware, and expect the unexpected!

4hr TF.

Price has certainly been more active than seen on Monday! A sharp drop took place yesterday on the AUD, as explained may happen in yesterday’s analysis.

A drop may have been seen, but the sellers have yet to push price down to its full potential, as there is more room to the downside with little stopping price from hitting the round number below at 0.93000. The zone between the D/S flip area at 0.93186-0.93345 and the round number 0.93000 marked with a check sign, appears to be a lovely area for a fakeout in the near future.

A push to the upside may still come to light. A new mini downtrend line has been attached to the chart, again, like yesterday, this is not to show a trend, it is more to show how pro money has likely been consuming small supply pockets on the lower timeframes whilst price is still dropping, thus if price manages to rally, and consume the circled area (0.94000,) there will be little to stop the buyers pushing price up to the highs (marked with a circle to the left) at 0.94613 where we currently have a pending sell order set at 0.94447.

No pending buy orders (Green line)are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen at 0.92231 just above demand at 0.92037-0.92203. It would be too risky to set a pending order around this area, since deep spikes into this demand zone have been seen (levels above) possibly consuming the majority of buyers in the process.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are visible just above the round number 0.93000 at 0.93025. We require confirmation of this level because previous price action has warned us deep tests both north and south happen on a regular basis, hence the need to wait for confirmation rather than getting stopped out time after time through lack of patience.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 0.94447, if price manages to get up to this level, active sellers are likely waiting because of how quickly price changed in direction, only pro money have the account size to do this, indicating unfilled sell orders may still be unfilled there.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending orders are seen with current price action. P.A.C: 0.92231 (SL: more than likely will be at 0.91984 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.93025 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.94447 (SL: 0.94667 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

Most likely scenario: Due to recent unfolding price action seen yesterday, price may see higher prices sometime today to around the highs (0.94613), especially with a possible extra push from the FOMC statement being announced later today.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

As reported in the last analysis:

The higher timeframes is currently showing price trading around demand (Weekly: 101.254, Daily: 101.532-100.787), so higher prices are naturally expected sometime this week.

No decline into demand seen at 101.427-101.660 was seen yesterday, as reported may happen in the last analysis. The buyers are seen in control at the moment, currently battling it out with sellers around the minor S/R flip level 102.117. If the buyers manage a positive close above this flip level, the path is relatively clear for buyers to push up to the final target for our long position (101.679) seen at 102.367, where we respectively have a pending sell order allocated waiting to be filled.

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (101.427-101.660) at 101.679is now active. The first target has been hit at 102.000.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are visible at 102.980, deep within supply (103.055-102.742), this area may well appear to be weak now, but the way price reacted at the circled area within supply indicates pro money activity, meaning sell orders may be left unfilled there, so a pending order is permitted.

Near-term pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 102.367. A pending order is valid here since this is the area where pro money made the ‘decision’ to take prices lower into demand (101.427-101.660), unfilled sell orders were likely left there in the process.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.980 (SL: 103.108 TP: 102.117, but may well change if the market sees any new developments) 102.367 (SL: 102.458 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches this area). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

Most likely scenario: Price will likely decline a little, if a positive close above the minor S/R flip level is seen, possibly to around the round number 102.000, before the final advance commences to at least 102.367.

EUR/GBP:

Daily TF.

The daily timeframe shows buyers are definitely active around demand at 0.79282-0.79649. A positive daily close below this demand area could be devastating for the buyers as there is very little stopping price from dropping all the way down to major support below at 0.77533 (not shown on the chart).

4hr TF.

Buyers have rallied price to supply (D/S flip area) at 0.80053-0.80176 as reported may happen in yesterday’s analysis. A bearish reaction has been seen around this supply, and quite rightly so, with the huge figure 0.80000 lurking just below the supply (levels above).

The buyers have now confirmed demand at 0.79405-0.79552 by consuming the majority of sellers around the supply area mentioned above, this has allowed us to place a pending buy order where our confirmation buy order was originally set at 0.79580.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

A pending buy order (Green line) has been set at 0.79580 just above demand at 0.79405-0.79552. The rationale behind this is because buyers have likely consumed the majority of the sellers lurking around supply (D/S flip area) at 0.80053-0.80176, likely clearing the path for higher prices. A small retracement will possibly be seen to collect more buyers for a rally higher, thus triggering our pending buy order.

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) under the S/R flip level 0.81403 at 0.81393 is an area where a reaction is likely, however there were too many wicks north seen marked with arrows, indicating sellers are drying up, thus, the need to wait for more confirmation.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just under supply (0.80869-0.80771) at 0.80752. Confirmation orders were used here because price is trading around a weekly demand area (0.79596-0.80299), which means price could easily consume this supply level as the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower timeframes.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (0.80647-0.80583) at 0.80293. Confirmation orders were used here because price could easily consume this supply level as we are currently deep within a weekly demand area (0.79596-0.80299), which means price could easily consume this supply level as the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower timeframes.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79580 (SL: 0.79368 TP: [1] 0.80000 [2] 0.80583 [May change if any new developments in the market are seen]) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.81393 (SL: Will be likely set at 0.81564 TP: Will be likely set at the round number 0.81000) 0.80752 (SL: likely to be set at 0.80900 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level) 0.80293 (SL: likely to be set at 0.80648 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).

Most likely scenario: Price will likely see a decline in value as pro money will possibly want to collect liquidity in and around demand at 0.79405-0.79552, before any higher prices are seen.

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

Technically, not much has changed since the last analysis. Price is currently seen trading between supply at 1.08907-1.09047 and demand below at 1.08142-1.08330.

The higher timeframes are indicating higher prices are likely to be seen, as the weekly timeframe is presently trading around support at 1.08438, and the daily timeframe showing price trading around minor support at 1.08142. Therefore, the 4hr supply (levels above) is likely to be breached before the demand area below (levels above) is.

It would be a shame if price were not able to drop to our confirmation buy order set at 1.08348 before any rally took place. This is something we should all remember as traders, and it comes in the form of four little words: We don’t chase price!

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) seen just above demand (1.08142-1.08330) at 1.08348. There may be orders left unfilled here, however, a pending order is not wise due to how deep price penetrated the level before (marked with an arrow).

Pending sell orders (Green line) just below supply (1.10039-1.09875) at 1.09851 will very likely see a nice reaction. However, we should remain aware of the big figure number 1.10000 lurking within the top half of the supply area (levels above), so a bigger stop may be necessary.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the S/R flip level (1.09408) at 1.09361. A P.A.C order was selected here because of the deep wicks seen in and around this area, possibly indicating sellers have been consumed, thus weakening the level on return, and also not forgetting we are currently in higher –timeframe demand (weekly:1.08438 daily: 1.08142).

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the D/S flip area (1.08907-1.09047) at 1.08876. Pending orders are not logical here since price could very well spike north, deep into the zone, attempting to penetrate the round number 1.09000 which could possibly stop us out if we had pending orders set, and also not forgetting we are currently in higher –timeframe demand (weekly:1.08438 daily: 1.08142).

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: There are no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.08348 (SL: Likely to be set at 1.08127 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.09851 (SL: 1.10114 TP: [1] 1.09408 [2] 1.09047) P.A.C: 1.09361 (SL likely to be set at 1.09513 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.08876 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Most likely scenario: Price will likely trade within where price is currently capped (supply 1.08907-1.09047 demand 1.08142-1.08330) during the low-volume sessions, once volatility picks up, the supply area (levels above) will likely break before the demand area (levels above) seen below does.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

This pair is becoming very frustrating to trade at the moment, with price action not showing much in the way of a clear direction.

A mini range seems to be forming between the highs above at 0.90116 and the lows below at 0.89643. Considering we are trading at quite an important area (Supply/Round number: 0.90381-0.90033/0.90000), this could very well be pro money accumulating a position, however the question we need to ask ourselves is, accumulating a position to trade in which direction?

We still have an active sell order in the market, as we may see lower prices from supply at 0.90381-0.90033. A break out of this mini range will certainly show us more information regarding possible direction; however we favor a break to the downside due to where price is currently located.

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the daily S/R flip level (0.88501) at 0.88533. This level needs to see some confirming price action before any entry is placed in the market, due to their being no logical area for a stop loss order.

Near-term P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen within demand (0.88973-0.89168) at 0.89029, just above the round number 0.89000, as price may retrace to demand to collect unfilled orders.

The pending sell order (Green line) visible at the base of supply (0.90381-0.90033) just above the round number 0.90000 at 0.90063 still remains active, so keep a close eye on the first target area.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88533 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.89029 (SL: likely to be set at 0.88784 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: (Active) 0.90063 (SL: 0.90412 TP: [1] 0.89168 [2] 0.88501) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation orders seen in the current market environment.

Most likely scenario: A mini range has formed (0.90116/0.89643) just below supply at 0.90381-0.90033, a break of this range will likely been seen south either today or tomorrow.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

4hr TF.

The 4hr timeframe shows sellers really took control after hitting supply at 1293.47-1285.52, pushing price down to demand at 1258.57-1265.27 consequently hitting our second target (see below) on our short position up from 1284.53.

Price is currently capped between supply above at 1293.47-1285.52 and demand below at 1258.57-1265.27. A break of either side is possible at the moment as the higher timeframes are not showing much in the way of direction.

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen above demand (1231.56-1237.57) at 1238.61 as pro money will in the future likely fake the minor support level at 1240.66 into demand below (levels above).

The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above demand (1258.57-1265.27) at 1266.00 is now active. For this level to be confirmed, buyers will need to consume the majority of the sellers around supply above at 1293.47-1285.52, a pending buy order can then be set at 1266.00 awaiting a possible retracement.

The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the S/R flip level (1273.34) at 1273.81 has now been cancelled as price dropped too far from the entry confirmation buy level, and buyers made no attempt to consume the sellers within supply above at 1293.47-1285.52.

The pending sell order (Green line) set just below supply (1293.47-1285.52) at 1284.53 remains active with price hitting its second target at 1266.00.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: 1238.61 (SL: 1230.64 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) P.A.C: 1266.00 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: likely to be set at 1257.31 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Most likely scenario: Price will likely meander between where price is currently capped (supply: 1293.47-1285.52 demand: 1258.57-1265.27) during low-volume sessions. A break may be seen when volatility picks up, but at the time of writing it is very difficult to give an accurate prediction as to which level will likely break first.

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