Win or lose, Hillary Clinton just goes from strength to strength

Defeat by Barack Obama was supposed to signal a return to the Senate: instead, Hillary Clinton has become a high-profile secretary of state, and is being tipped for the vice-presidency in 2012 and the White House in 2016

The rumour was compelling, even by the high-octane standards of Washington DC. Vice-president Joe Biden would step down in two years' time, allowing Hillary Clinton to join the Democrats' presidential ticket in 2012. Then, after serving with Barack Obama through his second term, Clinton would be all set to win the White House in 2016.

The gossip spread like wildfire through the cocktail parties of Washington, into the blogosphere and then into the mainstream press, where New York magazine, National Public Radio and the cable news channels all picked up on it. The dream of Clinton becoming America's first woman president was suddenly alive again.

But the true importance of the rumour lay not in its details, but in its very existence. Eighteen months ago, smarting from defeat by Obama's upstart campaign, such a political rebirth would have been unthinkable. There had been undeniable bitterness between the two camps. The Democratic party had been divided. Two such colossal figures could never work together, let alone prosper. Clinton, in short, would return to the Senate and continue the loyal, dogged work of drawing up legislation and ease into history as an elder stateswoman.

But the past year has seen a remarkable rejuvenation of Clinton as secretary of state. She has reinvented herself as a highly visible public figure representing the US abroad. At the same time – to the surprise of many critics – she has earned a reputation for loyalty within the Obama administration. "The critics who said she would undermine Obama have been shown to be wrong," said Robin Gerber, author of Leadership the Eleanor Roosevelt Way.

Indeed, the only place where Clinton has perhaps trodden on her boss's toes is in the popularity stakes. While Obama has become the focus of domestic discontent that has seen his approval ratings slump to below 50% in some polls, Clinton has gone from strength to strength. In October, one Gallup survey had Clinton's approval rating at 62%. She graced the cover of Time magazine last month under the headline "The State of Hillary". One pundit approvingly dubbed her "America's Iron Lady".

Some might say that Clinton's first year as secretary of state has gone some way towards soothing the wounds left by her thwarted ambition to take the White House. Though she is not president, Clinton has nonetheless achieved what she has always wanted: influence and power. In fact, many would argue that, against all the odds, she continues to go from strength to strength.

In an era of celebrity politics Clinton certainly holds her own with Obama. Her name and her face are among the most recognisable in the world. Her presence at an event, or her visit to a foreign county, guarantees a slew of media coverage. "Obama is a celebrity president. She is a celebrity secretary of state," said Isobel Coleman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

That fame has allowed both Obama and Clinton to bask in some of the successes of American foreign policy over the past year. The commitment to closing the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay was hailed around the world, as was a vow to cease torturing detainees.

American diplomats, after eight years of more muscular Republican unilateralism, were suddenly talking up the strengths of negotiating and forging international alliances. America even scrapped a proposed missile shield that had been a darling of the Bush years, though it outraged Russia and appeared to have serious technical problems.

Clinton has been able to soak up the benefit of a global sense that America has fundamentally changed the direction of its politics. She has embarked on trips to Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East that have differed substantially in tone from those of the Bush years.

In Pakistan, she eschewed the usual private audiences with generals and politicians and held a series of often raucous public meetings. "The tone is different now and don't ever underestimate the importance of tone in diplomacy," said Larry Haas, a political commentator and former aide in the Clinton White House.

But there is also a powerful critique building up of the Obama administration's foreign policy. Clinton is attacked for not making any single issue – say, women's rights – her diplomatic centre-piece. She is also accused of excessive travelling, and of giving flowery speeches without actually taking any difficult stands. Her critics point out that on some tough issues, such as human rights in China or Tibet, America has pursued similar policies to the Bush administration. The Obama administration looks prettier to its foreign admirers, but the substance remains the same: projection and protection of American power. Realpolitik, it seems, has won out as usual.

That argument is especially strong when it comes to Afghanistan. Obama was elected on a promise of winding down the war in Iraq and committing extra resources to Afghanistan. But few of those who supported him imagined that he would follow through on that promise to the point where tens of thousands of extra troops would be dispatched. Likewise, with America's stance on Iran. Relations with Iran are as testy as ever and many believe that a potentially devastating face-off over Iran's nuclear ambitions remains every bit as likely as it as when Bush was in power.

"On Iran you are ending up with a policy that is not dissimilar to the Bush one," said Coleman.

But Clinton is savvy enough to know that her main audience does not lie abroad, but at home. She has taken her deserved reputation for toughness and translated it into her position in the administration, posing firmly as a hawk. That has won her some unexpected new admirers. Retired four-star general Jack Keane told one interviewer: "I'm a Republican. I disagree with her about practically everything, but she'd make a hell of a commander-in-chief."

Indeed, Clinton is known to be reliably hawkish on all the top national security issues, from North Korea to Iran, to Israel and the Middle East. She has given the administration a tough edge on the day-to-day running of diplomacy even as Obama has been more dovish on the big picture version of events.

But she also shown her canny streak in securing her own position within Obama's team. Foreign policy is a crowded field in Washington, attracting attention from Obama himself, Pentagon chief Robert Gates and Biden. But a skilful Clinton has gracefully forged alliances and played the game to emerge as a winner. She plays a team game for Obama, maintains an excellent relationship with Gates and has helped see off Biden's dovish instincts on Afghanistan. She has used her strong personal relationship with the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, to prove her usefulness in the Afghan theatre. She has thrived in a post she never thought she would hold.

"Clinton is both a passionate and a practical person. She has shown an ability to be both an effective team player and to step out on her own. She walks that line very well," said Haas.

Certainly she has stepped out from the shadow of her husband, Bill. One of her few public flaps as secretary of state came on a trip to the Congo, when a student made the mistake of asking her what her spouse thought of a certain issue. Clinton snapped back that she was "not going to be channelling her husband". Never were truer words spoken.

After being first lady, a New York senator, battling against Obama in 2008, and now secretary of state, Clinton has defiantly emerged as a major American figure in her own right. Nor has her story ended.

So what of the rumour that she may replace Biden in 2012 and run in 2016? Away from the chattering television pundits, few of the experts gave the story much credence, least of all those who have studied Clinton closely. "It's not impossible. But it would be very hard to see that happening," said Gerber. But she raised another intriguing possibility. Clinton is a highly trained and accomplished lawyer. After her stint at state, Obama could one day appoint her to the supreme court. Then her ability to wield power would go on for as long as she lived. "That could definitely happen one day," Gerber said.

One way or another, and defying all predictions, Clinton's star is likely to be in the ascendant for years to come.