Analysis: Looking good for 'Lincoln' at Academy Awards

Thursday morning's announcement of the Academy Award nominations featured three big surprises in the best director category.

Kathryn Bigelow ("Zero Dark Thirty"), Ben Affleck ("Argo") and Tom Hooper ("Les Miserables") were not among the five nominees. That means their movies, which are among the nine nominated for best picture and were previously good bets to be in the race along with "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi," now are longshots.

"Lincoln," whose director, Steven Spielberg, was nominated, and which garnered the most nominations overall with 12, now seems the clear front-runner.

If it does win, it won't be a bad choice, but I'll still be hoping for "Les Miserables" to pull a major upset. It's a powerful film, the best of 2012, and the snub of director Hooper was the biggest disappointment in Thursday's announcement.

Another surprise was just how well "Beasts of the Southern Wild" did. This highly acclaimed indie film appeared to have a good chance to be nominated for best picture, which it was. But the best-actress nod to its 9-year-old star, Quvenzhane Wallis, the youngest person ever nominated in the category, and the best-director nomination for Benh Zeitlin seemed less likely.

Most baffling, though not surprising, was how well "Silver Linings Playbook" did.

It's a feel-good movie about underdogs, and it wound up on many critics' 10-best lists. Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence are fine as the leads and are worthy nominees. Parts of it are clever and entertaining. But, overall, it's contrived and over-the-top, especially in the sequences involving best-supporting-actor nominee Robert De Niro. I just don't see how it earned a spot in the picture, supporting actor, supporting actress (Jacki Weaver, who was so great a few years back in "Animal Kingdom") and director (David O. Russell) categories.

It's too bad that Joe Wright's stunning "Anna Karenina" didn't earn a nomination for picture or direction, though it is up for production design, cinematography, original score and costume design. Another nomination of interest: Cape native Robert Richardson, who has already won three Oscars for best cinematography ("Hugo," "The Aviator," "JFK") was nominated again for "Django Unchained."

The best news is that "Les Miserables," in addition to best picture, received nominations for Hugh Jackman as best actor and Anne Hathaway as best supporting actress. Hathaway has the best chance of winning for her heartbreaking portrayal of the tragic Fantine, and should. Come Oscar night, on Feb. 24, I'll be rooting for her, the movie, Jackman, Emmanuelle Riva (best actress for "Amour") and Christoph Waltz (best supporting actor for "Django Unchained"). I expect to be mostly disappointed.

Best director? It's hard to get too excited without Hooper or Wright in the mix.