Emissions in 2020 will be just 5 per cent below 2005 levels, according to the official projections and — without further measures to cut them — emissions will grow by 3.5 per cent on 2020 levels in the 10 years to 2030.

In other words, we'll go backwards in the coming decade.

This graph from the document starkly illustrates the extent of the task:

The green line is where emissions are forecast to be; the red and purple dotted lines are the range in which emissions need to be to meet the Paris commitments.

So why are Coalition MPs boldly claiming the Paris goals will be met?

Keep in mind that the Government has now killed off previous plans to enact a National Energy Guarantee (NEG) that included emissions reductions targets and a mechanism of sorts to help achieve them, and has also vowed to end targets for clean energy.

The stated reason for the confidence is that we "smashed" our previous reduction target under the Kyoto protocol.

On Twitter, the Grattan Institute's energy program director, Tony Wood, poured scorn on the assertion.

Barrelling on with the spin

Although the Australian Government has not followed US President Donald Trump's lead and withdrawn the nation from the Paris accord, there is a certain Trump-like quality to its discourse on emissions reductions.

It's not so much a case of alternative facts, as a case of ignore the facts, or pretend they don't exist.

It is much harder to achieve reductions in other areas of the economy; emissions from transport and from energy use in mining, resources, manufacturing and commerce have risen to record levels, fugitive emissions from crude oil and gas are soaring, and emissions from agriculture remain stubbornly high.

Perhaps there are policies yet to be announced that will help achieve the emissions reduction targets.

Perhaps the momentum for change is so entrenched that investment decisions, market forces and existing initiatives will get us there without further measures.