tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46987420987589473162015-05-08T02:17:51.528-07:00The 17.6 Year Stock Market CycleConnecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-12837664115072207072015-05-08T02:17:00.004-07:002015-05-08T02:17:51.534-07:00Top In?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NZWUI2PSpoQ/VUx_JneFHZI/AAAAAAAAARQ/jI3ZGkIC36Y/s1600/8%2BMay%2B2015%2BFTSE%2Bchart.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="284" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NZWUI2PSpoQ/VUx_JneFHZI/AAAAAAAAARQ/jI3ZGkIC36Y/s640/8%2BMay%2B2015%2BFTSE%2Bchart.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br />ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-25304008837498645152015-05-01T00:44:00.000-07:002015-05-01T00:44:17.259-07:00Top Coming - 15th May 2015 <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-udT0PeJtvjM/VUMuQ8QRiOI/AAAAAAAAAQ4/GP_VffjLHXI/s1600/1%2BMay%2B2015%2BFTSE%2BChart.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-udT0PeJtvjM/VUMuQ8QRiOI/AAAAAAAAAQ4/GP_VffjLHXI/s1600/1%2BMay%2B2015%2BFTSE%2BChart.JPG" height="346" width="640" /></a></div><br />The red circle is where time&nbsp;(15th May 2015) intersects with a longer term diagonal. This is where I am looking to short the FTSE 100 for a "sell in may and go away" trade.ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-47202810357174285782015-01-25T08:06:00.001-08:002015-01-25T08:10:12.907-08:00DJIA May 2015 Cycle HighI have updated the 17.6 WEEK cycle chart as shown below. You can see that every third cycle corresponds with a high turning point and the subsequent low usually follows within the next half cycle (i.e. the next 8.8 weeks).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tPmZYYzU68E/VMUSxjFk97I/AAAAAAAAAPw/wa3hlcY4mRU/s1600/17_6%2Bweek%2Bcycle%2B2009%2Bto%2B2015.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tPmZYYzU68E/VMUSxjFk97I/AAAAAAAAAPw/wa3hlcY4mRU/s1600/17_6%2Bweek%2Bcycle%2B2009%2Bto%2B2015.JPG" height="268" width="640" /></a></div><br />The dates are from an update of this original post back in 2013. The next high date is 18th May 2015.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oq3L2uDERNA/VMUTpCDYHeI/AAAAAAAAAP4/JQ-EJH6gtOg/s1600/17_6%2Bweek%2Bdates%2B2501015.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oq3L2uDERNA/VMUTpCDYHeI/AAAAAAAAAP4/JQ-EJH6gtOg/s1600/17_6%2Bweek%2Bdates%2B2501015.JPG" height="400" width="327" /></a></div><br />The bigger picture looks like this:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gx0p36_oG4A/VMUT10wnyWI/AAAAAAAAAQA/VJo1xKt_WvM/s1600/Inflation%2Badjusted%2BDJIA%2B1982%2Bto%2B2016.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gx0p36_oG4A/VMUT10wnyWI/AAAAAAAAAQA/VJo1xKt_WvM/s1600/Inflation%2Badjusted%2BDJIA%2B1982%2Bto%2B2016.JPG" height="416" width="640" /></a></div><br />From my 17.6 year stock&nbsp; market cycle, shown in full below:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eO1Sv8E8UFk/VMUUMozdD9I/AAAAAAAAAQY/W78IHAVNORk/s1600/Full%2Bwheel.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eO1Sv8E8UFk/VMUUMozdD9I/AAAAAAAAAQY/W78IHAVNORk/s1600/Full%2Bwheel.PNG" height="412" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-55081889855066369402014-04-02T04:14:00.002-07:002014-04-02T04:17:04.292-07:00Historic FTSE 100 Trailing Price Earnings Ratio<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">There doesn’t seem to be any historic trailing price earnings charts or data available for the FTSE 100 (which are readily available for the US S&amp;P500 and DJIA) that aren’t Shiller PE 10 type data sets. So I have created my own.<o:p></o:p></span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EytF_YJ1G5w/Uzvw9wz0vuI/AAAAAAAAAO8/GPFWdFtCuvQ/s1600/FTSE+100+trailing+PE+chart.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EytF_YJ1G5w/Uzvw9wz0vuI/AAAAAAAAAO8/GPFWdFtCuvQ/s1600/FTSE+100+trailing+PE+chart.JPG" height="356" width="640" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">&nbsp;</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">&nbsp; <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: white;">What this shows is that the average historic trailing PE for the FTSE 100 is 18.57 and we are currently at 13.41 (compared to a high PE of 30.45 in December 1999).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><span style="color: white;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: white;">By contrast the S&amp;P 500 historic PE ratio shows that stocks were mind-blowingly expensive in 2000 (PE 45) and they then dropped to about a PE of 15 in 2003. The long term average going back to 1900 is a PE of 16.38 and as at 28/3/2014 the S&amp;P 500 PE ratio was 17.69.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div><span style="color: white;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: white;">The FTSE is a buy on this basis but the significant number of miners listed in the UK could be the factor dragging the FSTE 100 down compared to the US.</span> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: #444444;"></span><o:p></o:p></span>&nbsp;</div>ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-6311020465278007132013-11-02T06:12:00.001-07:002013-11-02T06:12:23.852-07:00The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle on The Big Picture BlogThe 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle is featured on Barry Ritholz's <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/balenthiran-cycle/" target="_blank">The Big Picture blog</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mFuKTfRybpU/UnT5C7jdAKI/AAAAAAAAAOc/AcDposzBnKU/s1600/Fig+1+Balenthiran+Cycle.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mFuKTfRybpU/UnT5C7jdAKI/AAAAAAAAAOc/AcDposzBnKU/s640/Fig+1+Balenthiran+Cycle.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br />I wrote the following in response to some of the comments to provide some additional explaination behind the&nbsp;cycle.<br /><br />&nbsp;The full cycle from top to top is 2 x 17.6 years, but each half has its own distinct pattern. There is already some recognition of a 17.6 year stock market cycle, notably by Art Cashin, so it made sense to refer to it as a 17.6 year cycle.<br /><br />The 2.2 year and 4.4 year increments refer to bullish and bearish phases and not specific turn dates. Therefore while the 2007 to 2009 top to bottom was shorter than 2.2 years, the cycle shows a top in 2007 and bottom in 2009 based on this historic pattern going back 100 years for the DJIA.<br /><br />The period 2011 to 2013 is indeed shown as a bearish period. These bearish periods can either result in a significant sell off or overall sideways movement. I completed the research on my cycle in early 2011 and calling for a 2011 high turning point was the first forecast that I made using my cycle. <br />When I completed the manuscript for my book prior to it being published I kept the original forecast as that is the best forecast based on 100 years of history. I am well aware that the bullish periods are 4.4 years and this has worked out well in the period 2009 to 2013. However based on my study of the 1970s and 1940s I stated in my book, published in March 2013, that this period would see a significant buying opportunity that would be the last major low of the secular bear market and offer a great place to buy in order to ride the next great bull market in stocks. The August 2011 low may be the low of this period, as I specifically say in my book that the low sometimes occurs at the beginning of the period, or the low could be ahead of us. But I do think, based on my research, the nominal low for this 17.6 year bear market was reached in 2009 and we are not headed for those levels again.<br />I remain alert for a significant correction ahead as the US/UK markets have become historically overvalued (using CAPE) and exuberance and leverage abound based on QE addiction. Sustainable secular bull markets are not built on emergency central bank policies, stagnant wages, stubbornly high unemployment (specifically youth unemployment) and artificially low interest rates. Don’t get me wrong, I understand the need for central bank intervention, I just don’t think this is a healthy bull market in stocks.<br /><br />Whilst completing my book I came across an article from 1999 by Warren Buffet in Fortune magazine, Buffett talks about his expectations from stocks over the next 17 years and discusses past performance for other 17 year periods such as 1981 to 1999 and 1965 to 1981. Buffett stated that he expected a 4% annual real return, at best, until 2017. Why does Buffett specifically mention 17 years, why not 15 year or 19 years? Also Buffett rarely mentions his outlook for the future; I believe he was ringing the bell at the top.<br /><br /><a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm</a><br /><br />Back in 1966 Buffet closed his partnership to new money in 1966 as he grew concerned about elevated stock prices and he liquidated it completely in 1969 because he felt that he was unable to find any bargains in the market. I’d argue that Buffett is a market timer as well as a value investor.<br /><br />I know this sounds crazy to people who are unfamiliar with cycles, and cycles are not to be used in isolation either, but I started on this journey when I was reading Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers. Rogers mentions the commodity cycle of 17/18 years that goes back hundreds of years. He sites the excellent research of Barry Bannister from 2002 where Bannister argues that we are in a new secular commodities bull market that will end in 2015, driven by long term underinvestment and supply issues.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.upsecurities.com/resources/documents/commodities/LM%20The%20Inflation%20Cycle%202002-2025%204-19-02.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.upsecurities.com/resources/documents/commodities/LM%20The%20Inflation%20Cycle%202002-2025%204-19-02.pdf</a><br /><br />I have obviously used the cycle to try and paint a picture of what the future may look like and there are other audacious claims in my book such as the gold/commodity markets will peak in 2015 and we are just in a final cyclical bear market within the long term commodities bull market. Also I think that the next secular bull market in stocks will take us to Dow 100,000 in 2035 before we see another 17.6 year bear market, driven by a new 17.6 year commodities bull. <br /><br />We have made new nominal highs in most stock markets but the real return after inflation is still negative, excluding dividends. I am expecting the end of the secular bear market in stocks, in real terms, to be 2018 and I anticipate a return of inflation to get us there and finally force the Fed’s hand on QE.ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-68698301131245472962013-10-04T03:30:00.002-07:002013-10-04T03:30:36.796-07:00The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle Combined with the Halloween Indicator Smashes Dow Jones Buy and Hold ReturnInvestors are often told that market timing is a fools game; time in the market beats timing the market. My new research on the well known Halloween Indicators shows that not only is market timing possible, but when combined with my 17.6 Year Stock market Cycle, it has lead to an incredible&nbsp;outperformance versus a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)&nbsp; buy and hold strategy.<br /><br /><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/10/2/4423201-13807014147901816-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox"><img hspace="6" src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/10/2/4423201-13807014147901816-Kerry-Balenthiran.jpg" vspace="6" /></a><br /><br />The graph above, taken from my <a href="http://intel.harriman-house.com/trading/halloween-indicator-timing-market-significantly-beats-time-market/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">original research</a>, shows that a long/cash strategy returns 19 times the DJIA return since 1897, whereas a long/short strategy returns 121 times the DJIA return over the same period. This also beats other well known Halloween based strategies as well. Full details of teh strategy and results are <a href="http://intel.harriman-house.com/trading/halloween-indicator-timing-market-significantly-beats-time-market/" target="_blank">here</a>. <br /><br />Now that we are in October and stock markets are looking increasingly uncertain, it is worth noting that 31 October 2013 is the next buy date for this strategy.<br /><br />ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-10568140063236718972013-07-11T01:34:00.002-07:002013-07-11T01:34:37.436-07:00The Gold Cycle Has Bottomed<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is no denying </span><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">that the gold market has been on the most tortuous ride lately. Just as bulls think the correction is over and start to build new long positions, the markets slices through $1400 and drops to just below $1200. Even some of the most ardent bulls are now referring to gold as “insurance” instead of an “investment”. Gold is one of the most hated asset classes at the moment.</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> This is all part of the bull market process, throwing off as many investors as possible before the finale. It happened with the dotcom bull market in 1997/98 and bonds in 2008/9 and it is now happening with gold.</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></o:p>&nbsp;</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital summed up this nicely in an article for <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-01/gold-bug-bashing-1976-edition" target="_blank">Zerohedge.com</a>:<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">“The New York Times had the definitive take on the vicious sell off in gold. To summarize one of their articles:<o:p></o:p></div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><em><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;, Courier, monospace;">Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight. The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels.<o:p></o:p></span></em><br /><em><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;, Courier, monospace;"> </span></em><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><em><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;, Courier, monospace;">The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold's allure.<o:p></o:p></span></em></div><em><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;, Courier, monospace;"> Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators' dreams into a nightmare.</span></em> <o:p></o:p><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">This analysis provides a good representation of the current conventional wisdom. The only twist here is that the article from which this summary is derived appeared in the August 29, 1976 edition of The New York Times. At that time gold was preparing to embark on an historic rally that would push it up more than 700% a little over three years later. Is it possible that the history is about to repeat itself?”</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><o:p></o:p>&nbsp;</div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While we all know that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, history is a very useful guide when creating a strategy to position ourselves as the investment cycle unfolds.<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The run up in the gold price leading to September 2011 did appear to be bubble like, but the lack of widespread participation in gold is inconsistent with a long term top being in. I’d like to see adverts in the weekend newspapers selling gold as a long term investment to retail investors and mainstream journalists advocating the case for gold (think of Apple’s massively oversubscribed bond sale in April 2013). I think this phase of the gold bull market lies ahead of us and I am about to tell you why.<o:p></o:p></span></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> I am not going to lie, this cyclical bear market in gold has caught me out, but it hasn’t been completely unexpected. As we have just read, Gold halved between 1974 and 1976 and whilst I didn’t expect this to happen (and saw no reason why it should), I had it in the back of my mind that it might. <o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Readers of my book will know about The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle and be familiar with the associated commodity cycle that is briefly mentioned. Using this cycle I have forecast a secular 17.6 year gold bull market top in 2015. However there is also an interesting 1.76 year sub-cycle that can help us when trying to forecast future turning point.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B3pWN1CExKA/Ud5oybImNhI/AAAAAAAAAMA/6qi2pHr8Mdc/s1600/Gold+cycle+turning+points.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B3pWN1CExKA/Ud5oybImNhI/AAAAAAAAAMA/6qi2pHr8Mdc/s1600/Gold+cycle+turning+points.PNG" height="237" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is important to note that the dates of these turning points are not the date of the exact top/bottom but are reasonably accurate as the table above, and chart below, shows. Also note how some of the tops were quickly passed again at the beginning of the bull market and didn’t result in significant pullbacks.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pScB0szmJS8/Ud5o9om44II/AAAAAAAAAMI/-WXE291L12g/s1600/WGC-Gold-price+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pScB0szmJS8/Ud5o9om44II/AAAAAAAAAMI/-WXE291L12g/s1600/WGC-Gold-price+2013.png" height="342" width="640" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">&nbsp;</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Needless to say I wasn’t caught holding long positions in 2011, but you can see why I bought in mid 2012 in anticipation of the next rally, which didn’t lead to new highs as expected. I have labeled June 2013 as a bottom because it obviously isn’t a top, but we’ll have to wait and see if that is correct.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> If we look back at the last secular 17.6 year gold bull market we can see a similar pattern. If we take away 17.6 years from the start of the last bull market, May 1999 using the cycle dates above, that takes us to January 1980. This was indeed the blow off top for the last gold bull market, although the preceding turning points can be a few months off [note the World Gold Council only had data going back to 1970, but the price was fixed at $35 an ounce from 1944 to 1971]:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"> <a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C95yO1qzTzg/Ud5pJLkPtYI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/KyxOj6_YBZw/s1600/WGC-Gold-price+1970.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C95yO1qzTzg/Ud5pJLkPtYI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/KyxOj6_YBZw/s1600/WGC-Gold-price+1970.png" height="342" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although the exact timing of a turn is unpredictable, and we are not even sure if the turning points are tops or bottoms, the nature of the sell off preceding this most recent turning point indicates that it is a bottom. However the fact that we are approaching the end of the 17.6 year secular cycle gives me confidence that the blow off top for this secular bull market is ahead off us in 2015 and that is why I have not sold any of my gold during this sell off.</span><br /> </span><br /></span><br />ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-3038772473208215912013-05-11T10:48:00.001-07:002013-05-12T05:57:35.245-07:00This Time It’s Different.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">&nbsp;</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" Sir John Templeton.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">&nbsp;</span></o:p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Readers of my book and articles will know that I track the secular 17.6 year stock market cycle and in particular the specific 2.2/4.4 year cyclical turning points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Awareness of this long term Balenthiran Cycle is essential for understanding where markets are headed and being positioned accordingly. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Balenthiran Cycle diagram, below, shows the secular bull market cycle from 1982 to 2000 and the secular bear market from 2000 to 2018. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>By studying price data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 100 years, I have demonstrated that this cycle works from 1929 to 1947, 1947 to 1965 and 1965 to 1982. I have then been able to extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap stretching out to 2053, which outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Balenthiran Cycle<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MmPKR_g-pCo/UY6FrWpgPUI/AAAAAAAAALI/PWCXSUSG1hY/s1600/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MmPKR_g-pCo/UY6FrWpgPUI/AAAAAAAAALI/PWCXSUSG1hY/s1600/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" height="465" width="640" /></a></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"> </v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:formulas> <v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f"> <o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:path></v:stroke></span></v:shapetype></span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The green segments are cyclical bull markets that typically last for 4.4 years and the red segments are cyclical bear markets that last for 2.2 years. Although significant progress is made during bull markets, bear markets can result in either a sizable drop or a period of sideways movement.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Balenthiran Cycle forecasts that the current secular bear market won’t end until 2018. However when I was a guest on CNBC, as well as in comments to my articles, the response that I keep hearing is that a new secular bull market has already begun, central bankers have won. QE has triumphed over a cycle that has survived the Great Depression, two world wars and both the US and UK abandoning the gold standard. Basically “this time it’s different!”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">However this time is not different and as well as the 17.6 year stock market cycle forecasting a significant low in 2013, another shorter term cycle is as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The 17.6 Week Stock Market Cycle<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In order to trade effectively, it is useful to monitor shorter timeframe cycles in addition to longer term cycles. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span>One in particular is very informative, the 17.6 week cycle, and it is flashing red right now!</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n6o7o-TFTvk/UY84Ppm-r2I/AAAAAAAAALg/4aBDU2x2770/s1600/Dow+2007+to+2009+17.6+weeks+SA.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n6o7o-TFTvk/UY84Ppm-r2I/AAAAAAAAALg/4aBDU2x2770/s1600/Dow+2007+to+2009+17.6+weeks+SA.PNG" height="242" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">As can be seen from the chart above, the third harmonic of the 17.6 week cycle has coincided almost exactly with interim highs during the cyclical bull market. The dates given by the cycle are shown in the following table, along with the actual market highs:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">&nbsp;</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LHM4LnLw37Q/UY6ERPpYTTI/AAAAAAAAAK8/-I_DtEJgqgw/s1600/17.6+week+table.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LHM4LnLw37Q/UY6ERPpYTTI/AAAAAAAAAK8/-I_DtEJgqgw/s1600/17.6+week+table.PNG" height="400" width="323" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The chart above also shows that a typical correction following a high is completed during the next 17.6 week cycle, which put us at 13<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> September 2013, one day before St. Leger Day!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sell in May?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The famous saying began in Britain as "Sell in May and go away, stay away till St. Leger Day." St. Leger Day is the final horse race of the British equivalent of the Triple Crown.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A remarkable coincidence, or is it?<o:p></o:p></span></div>ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-33981734059503456682013-05-11T04:21:00.000-07:002013-05-11T07:56:25.374-07:00To Understand The Future You Must Know The Past<strong></strong>Now that both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 have surpassed their previous highs, a debate had begun about whether we are in a new secular bull market or whether we are still in the secular bear market that began in 2000. The discussion goes something like this:<br /><br />Bulls: "Who cares, markets are going up and we are making money."<br /><br />Bears: "Yes, but only because the Fed is pumping money into the system."<br /><br />Bulls: "Who cares, stocks are going up."<br /><br />Nothing is going to get in the way of bulls at this time - spending cuts, Italian elections, Cyprus, continued economic malaise. The "great rotation" has most people believing that equities will stay high as bond money finds its way into the stock markets. What can go wrong?<br /><br /><strong>Historic Stock Market Cycles</strong><br /><br />Boom and busts occur much more frequently than many imagine and by studying historic stock market cycles we can learn a lot about their expected duration and also what to expect along the way.<br /><br />In the late 1800s/early 1900s business men and scientists such as Joseph Kitchin, William Stanley Jevons, John Mills, Clement Juglar and Nikolai Kondratieff, to name a few, started to formulate theories about recurring business cycles of various lengths and established the concept of the business cycle.<br /><br />A cycle doesn't mean that the same exact thing will happen over and over again. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market.<br /><br />General interest in cycles wanes during the boom times ("who cares I am making money") only to resurface during prolonged corrections, as economists and investors seek to understand why the usual short sharp recession has not been followed by a recovery. This was true in the 1930s and is the case once again.<br /><br /><strong>Business Cycles</strong><br /><br />In the 1930s economists Joseph Schumpeter and Simon Kuznet did much to progress the concepts of cycles in innovation and economic development. In his book <em>Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process</em>, Schumpeter suggests a model in which the four main cycles (Juglar, Kitchin, Kuznets and Kondratieff) are multiples of each other and can be added together to form a composite cycle.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667460348828666-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667460348828666-Kerry-Balenthiran.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" /></a></div><br /><br />Schumpeter wrote: "But there is no rational justification that the writer can see for assuming that the integral number of Kitchins in a Jugular or of Juglars in a Kondratieff should always be the same. Yet from the study of our time series we derive a rough impression that this is so. Barring very few cases in which difficulties arise, it is possible to count off, historically as well as statistically, six Juglars to a Kondratieff and three Kitchins to a Juglar-not as an average but in every individual case."<br /><br />Source: Joseph A. Schumpeter, <em>Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process</em><br /><br />Analysis of world GDP growth rates by Andrey V Korotayev, and Sergey V Tsirel identifies cycles of approximately 4 years, 9 years 18 years and 53 years that correspond with Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznet and Kondratieff cycles respectively.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/4423201_13667458045398_rId7.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/4423201_13667458045398_rId7_thumb.jpg" /></a></div><br /><br />Source: Andrey V Korotayev, and Sergey V Tsirel<em>, A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis</em><br /><br /><strong>Stock Market Cycles</strong><br /><br />We can see that there is good evidence for regular business cycles of fixed durations but how does this apply to the stock market? JM Hurst was a former NASA engineer who used frequency analysis to identify stock market cycles. The longer term cycles that Hurst identified were 18 years, 9 years, 4.5 years and 3 years. These are described in his book <em>The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing.</em> Hurst set out a number of principles of cycle theory and also believed that the larger cycles are multiples of the small cycles.<br /><br />Well known investors such as Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers have both written about 17/18 year stock market cycles and numerous analysts have constructed charts showing 18 year bull and bear market cycles. Cycles of approximately 18 years have been documented by many stock market commentators.<br /><br /><strong>The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle</strong><br /><br />Art Cashin was, as far as I am aware, the first person to mention the 17.6 year stock market cycle. In an interview on CNBC he mentioned why the bear market would last until 2017. Steven Williams from CyclePro Outlook has also written about the 17.6 year stock market.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667466594297123-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667466594297123-Kerry-Balenthiran.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" /></a></div><br /><br />Source: Kerry Balenthiran, <em>The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2000/Stockcharts.com</em><br /><br />My own research, without knowing about Art Cashin and Steven Williams, also identified the existence of a 17.6 year stock market cycle. When I read about Cashin and Williams I found it incredible that three people could independently identify such a specific cycle. However I have gone a step further, crucially I have discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years that correspond to major cyclical stock market turning points such as 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 and beyond. I have called this cycle, rather modestly (and, after all, if has to be called something), the Balenthiran Cycle.<br /><br /><strong>Balenthiran Cycle</strong><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/23/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" /></a></div><br /><br />Source: Kerry Balenthiran, <em>The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007.</em><br /><br />The diagram above shows how the Balenthiran Cycle looks for the bull market from 1982 to 2000 and the current bear market from 2000 to 2018. In general cyclical bull markets last 4.4 years and cyclical bear markets last 2.2 years. By studying price data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 100 years, I have demonstrated that this cycle works from 1929 to 1947, 1947 to 1965 and 1965 to 1982. I have then been able to extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap stretching out to 2053, which outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.<br /><br />Using the Balenthiran Cycle I forecast that 2013 is likely to see a significant stock market correction that will provide a fantastic opportunity to buy into equity markets ahead of the next great bull market. The current long term bear market in stocks is likely to continue until 2018, but after that we should see another period where equity investment comes back in vogue and buy and hold rules again, just like from 1982 to 2000.<br /><br />As major world wide stock markets hover around multi-year highs and the media is full of articles stating that a new bull market is underway, it is worth remembering that, as we are all aware, stock markets do not go up in a straight line. Investors tend to forget that big falls occur when we least expect them. The tendency to expect outsized returns to continue, aka greed, means that people tend to ignore the warning signs and are unprepared for the inevitable change in trend that occurs. This happens on the way down as well as up. By being aware of long term secular cycles as well as the intermediate cyclical turning points investors will be better equipped to ensure that they have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.<br /><!--googleoff: index--><br />ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-22028586389960005572013-05-11T04:18:00.002-07:002013-10-06T02:12:51.186-07:00Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market The big argument on twitter, among many, is focused on whether we are in a bull market or a bear market. Both sides are equally vociferous and committed to their position. What they don't realize is that they are both right in their own way. But understanding the difference in the way they are right is critical to successfully navigating the current market.<br /><br />Marketwatch published the chart below showing the current market uptrend compared to the last market uptrend. The similarity is remarkable.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/4423201_13627775430982_rId5.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/4423201_13627775430982_rId5_thumb.jpg" height="310" width="470" /></a></div><br /><br />The 2009 to 2013 move up has displayed similar behavior to the 2002/3 to 2007 bear market rally (cyclical bull market), and based on the chart above you may well conclude that it hasn't got much further to run.<br /><br />But how can we determine whether 2009 to 2013 is a bear market rally or the beginning of a new secular bull market?<br /><br />Barry Ritholtz's blog discussed the top ten S&amp;P 500 bull markets of 20% or more, see table below. The current bull run comes in at number 6 and the table shows that it could continue on much further, based on past experience.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/4423201_13627775430982_rId7.png" rel="lightbox" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/4423201_13627775430982_rId7_thumb.jpg" height="190" width="469" /></a></div><br /><br />However one thing that is not immediately obvious from the table above is this; of the ten bull markets, six of these have been cyclical bull markets within secular bear markets, only the first three have been during secular bull markets. So the chances are that this is also a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market.<br /><br />But hold on, the bulls cry, "the markets are making new all-time highs, that's bullish!" Well not necessarily. During the bear market of 1965 to 1982 the Dow made new all-time highs in 1972 and then promptly fell 45%. So new highs are not necessarily an indication of a new bull market.<br /><br />How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term stock bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?<br /><br />These are the questions that I set out to answer when I started to study historic stock market cycles. It comes as a surprise to most people to find out that booms and busts occur surprisingly regularly and that there is a repeating cycle in the stock markets.<br /><br />My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle length of 17.6 years. I have called this cycle the Balenthiran Cycle and demonstrate how the intermediate turning points match stock market behavior going back to the early 1900s and extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap of the next secular bull market to 2035 and subsequent secular bear market to 2053.<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MmPKR_g-pCo/UY6FrWpgPUI/AAAAAAAAALI/PWCXSUSG1hY/s1600/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MmPKR_g-pCo/UY6FrWpgPUI/AAAAAAAAALI/PWCXSUSG1hY/s1600/4423201-13667466208507645-Kerry-Balenthiran_origin.png" height="465" width="640" /></a><br /><br />Using the Balenthiran Cycle I forecast that we are in a secular bear market that will last from 2000 to 2018, and the current uptrend will end in 2013 and that we will have a low at the end of 2013 (not lower than the 2009 low). Following this low I forecast (using historic cycles) that we are likely to see a bounce in the markets with higher lows in 2015 and 2018 before the new secular bull market begins in 2018.<br /><br />Bulls and bears can both therefore claim to be right, but it's only by taking a historical viewpoint and looking at the bigger picture that investors can ensure that they position themselves correctly for the future.<br /><!--googleoff: index--> <br /><div class="m_pop nofix_position" id="promotion_box_no_rel_sidebar" style="display: none;"></div><img src="http://static3.cdn-seekingalpha.com/images/loader.gif" height="16" id="loader_newsletter_sidebar" style="display: none;" width="16" /> ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-59254744084612353882013-03-26T06:27:00.004-07:002013-03-26T06:29:39.236-07:00Kerry Balenthiran on Investors ChronicleKerry Balenthiran, author of The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 talks to Dominic Picarda from Investors Chronicle about the Balenthiran Cycle which forecasts that; the ongoing secular stocks bear market will last until 2018, the cyclical stocks bull market will end in&nbsp;2013 and the gold bull market will peak in 2015.<br /><br />Watch the video here:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/03/04/comment/the-trader/video-stocks-next-mega-bull-market-Egf2ZdBaH06W71SKoPsHTN/article.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nt4xu2r8gvE/UVGiD5wGneI/AAAAAAAAAJk/3KdIv7AOYVQ/s1600/IC+vid.PNG" height="186" width="320" /></a></div>ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-63263137654992385912012-11-03T13:36:00.004-07:002013-03-26T06:31:04.307-07:00The 17.6 Year Stock Market CycleThe 17.6 Year Stock Market cycle is a new book by Kerry Balenthiran that is&nbsp;being published by <a href="http://www.harriman-house.com/products/books/870601/investing/The-176-Year-Stock-Market-Cycle" target="_blank">Harriman House</a> on 25th February 2013. Click on the cover to view a PDF sample.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.harriman-house.com/samples/9780857193094_sample.pdf" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VFkom62secI/UQUS9dJDHUI/AAAAAAAAAIU/isIM6Mfkdko/s1600/HH+Cover.PNG" height="640" width="433" /></a></div><br /><br />From the introduction:<br /><br />"A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another.<br /><br />The identification of a 17-18 year stock market cycle is nothing new, but I have discovered a stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years that I have extrapolated back over 100 years. I have called this cycle, rather modestly (and, after all, if has to be called something), the Balenthiran Cycle and that is the subject of this book."<br /><u></u><br /><u>Contents</u><br /><br />Introduction<br /><br /><div>Commodity Cycles</div><div></div><div>Business Cycles A Historical Perspective</div><div></div><div>Business Cycles A Modern Psychological Perspective</div><div></div><div>Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle</div><ul><li>Part I: Bull Market 1982 to 2000</li><li>Part II: Bear Market 1929 to 1947</li><li>Part III: Bull Market 1947 to 1965 and Bear Market 1965 to 1982</li><li>Part V: Bear Market 2000 to 2018</li></ul><div>How to Trade the Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle</div><div></div><div>Conclusion </div><br />Order a copy <a href="http://www.harriman-house.com/products/books/870601/investing/The-176-Year-Stock-Market-Cycle" target="_blank">here</a>.ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-73590818781834155732012-11-03T13:34:00.001-07:002013-03-26T06:16:44.627-07:00Art Cashin from UBS on CNBCArt Cashin, Director of Floor operations at UBS Financial Services, talks about the 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle.&nbsp; Art describes the cycle as being like the biblical story of the fat and lean years, from 1982 to 2000 there was a&nbsp;bull market and now we are in a bear market like the one from 1966 to 1982.&nbsp; Art believes that the next bull market won't start until 2017.<br /><br />The full interview is here:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><object class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://2.gvt0.com/vi/QMdwSo6qK44/0.jpg" height="266" width="320"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/QMdwSo6qK44&fs=1&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/QMdwSo6qK44&fs=1&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">&nbsp;</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">&nbsp;</div><strong><span style="font-size: x-large;">Kerry Balenthiran on CNBC</span></strong><br /><br />Kerry Balenthrian, author of The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007&nbsp;was recently&nbsp;asked to join the hosts on CNBC Squawk Box to discuss the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Watch the video here:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154395" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5HoKNGGp6Wk/UVGbmkvgxEI/AAAAAAAAAJU/2jF-ne8tUhQ/s1600/KB+CNBC+better.PNG" height="224" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">&nbsp;</div>ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698742098758947316.post-82120169849820549882012-11-03T12:41:00.002-07:002012-11-03T13:01:41.350-07:00Warren Buffett in FORTUNE Magazine<div xmlns="">Let's start by defining "investing." The definition is simple but often forgotten: Investing is laying out money now to get more money back in the future--more money in real terms, after taking inflation into account. </div><br /><div xmlns="">Now, to get some historical perspective, let's look back at the 34 years before this one--and here we are going to see an almost Biblical kind of symmetry, in the sense of lean years and fat years--to observe what happened in the stock market. Take, to begin with, the first 17 years of the period, from the end of 1964 through 1981. Here's what took place in that interval: </div><br /><div xmlns="">DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12 Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00 </div><br /><div xmlns="">Now I'm known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move. </div><div xmlns="">&nbsp;</div><div xmlns="">&nbsp;</div><div xmlns="">Full article is <a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>ValuableGrowthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15133059384460969506noreply@blogger.com