My20050.be - Details of my scenario

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TRANSPORT: Behaviour

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Transport demand per person: -20%Occupancy rate: cars +15%, buses +50%, trains +33%.Proportion of the different means of transport: 55% per car, 25% per bus and coach, 13% per rail, 6% on foot or by bike.

Homes: As a result of renovations, heating demand from existing buildings decreases from 140 to 30 kWh/m² in 2050; energy demand from new homes steadily decreases to the passive house standard (15 kWh/m²) from 2020. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps (electric); 40% share of alternative technologies in non-electrical systems.

Trade premises/offices: Heating demand decreases by 85%. Heating systems: 85% heat pumps; 40% share of alternative technologies in the non-electrical systems. 50% have air conditioning, but the increase in passive cooling systems leads to a 90% decrease in the energy demand for cooling.

Wind energy: capacity on land increases to 13 GW (installation of 460 MW or 180 turbines per year), at sea to 16.5 GW (+ 600 MW or 100 turbines per year).
Solar energy: photovoltaic capacity increases to 50 GW (average + 1,400 MW per year in 2010-2050), thermal capacity gradually increases to an average of 5m² per household.

To meet demand in 2050, Belgium imports maximum 17 TWh (which is 20% of the domestic production of 84 TWh in 2010).

ENERGY: Biomass

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Production in Belgium: 33 TWh in 2020 followed by an increase to 45 TWh in 2050.
Imports: gradual increase to 20 TWh in 2020 and 56 TWh in 2050.
Share in electricity production: 60%

AGRICULTURE: Diet

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With continuing population growth and a change made to consumption patterns: decreased meat consumption and a 43% (approx. 24 million animals) drop in animal numbers.

AGRICULTURE: Technology

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Methane: emissions decrease per animal by 16% in 2050 in comparison to 2010.Nitrogen from dung (per animal): slight annual decrease (- 3.2%) until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050 (due to increased productivity). Emissions 47% lower in 2050.Nitrogen from soil: slight annual decrease (- 0.5%) per hectare until 2030 in comparison to 2010, followed by stabilisation until 2050. Emissions 10% lower in 2050 in comparison to 2010.