A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

Frank D'Alessandro reported missing in New JerseyPOINT PLEASANT BEACH, NJ: Coast Guard crews called off the search for a missing Fort Myers man at sunset.

Authorities in New Jersey say they've searched hundreds of square miles of the Atlantic Ocean for real estate broker Frank D'Alessandro. He has been missing since Tuesday night when he left the beachfront condo he was renting to go kayaking.

Despite the massive search, rescue crews have come up with no sign of D'Alessandro. They say if new information becomes available, they may reconsider the decision.

Point Pleasant Beach police say D'Alessandro was reported missing on Wednesday by his mother. He in the area visiting her and was supposed to meet her for lunch, but D'Alessandro never showed up.

The search began immediately by Coast Guard, New Jersey State Police and Point Pleasant Beach police.

The Coast Guard located an orange kayak approximately nine miles off the coast of Mantoloking, New Jersey.

Authorities say it was an ocean kayak, model "Frenzy." The Coast Guard identified the kayak as the one D’Alessandro used through records at a local kayak rental shop.

A life jacket was found with the kayak, but police do not believe D’Alessandro was wearing it.

They do believe D’Alessandro was wearing a wetsuit, based on information from his girlfriend, who said he often wore one when kayaking.

D'Alessandro was renting the oceanfront home through September 19th. His rental car is still in the driveway and police said half of an oar was found in the yard.

Friends and family say D'Alessandro is an avid kayaker.

In a news conference Friday afternoon, police said nighttime kayaking is unusual in the Point Pleasant area. D'Alessandro reportedly headed out in his kayak between 9 and 10 p.m.

"He would go out either each afternoon or each morning to kayak for exercise," said Todd Gates, who is one of D'Alessandro's business partners.

Police said no one actually witnessed D'Alessandro in the kayak that evening.

Gates was shocked to hear the news about D'Alessandro, but says he is hopeful his friend will be found alive.

"We don't know what happened. We don't know if it was a bad wave or something. We have no idea. As far as I'm concerned, he's still out there hanging on to something. He's trying to survive. Supposedly, and I don't know this for a fact, he had a wet suit on. So hopefully that will lengthen his survivability if you will," said Gates.

D'Alessandro faces several lawsuits in federal and civil court in Southwest Florida.

New Jersey police are not saying D'Alessandro's legal issues are connected to the disappearance, but they say they have talked to law enforcement in Florida.

"We have been in contact with Florida. We're discussing the circumstances and we're leaving no stone unturned, to make sure we have an actual missing person out there in the ocean," said Chief Daniel DePolo of the Point Pleasant Beach Police Department.

I remember when my life spiraled out of control the BANKERS and collection agencies knew it and that is when they stuck the knife in deeper and laughed when they called and called me a deadbeat to my 8 year old son no less. (he asked me what a deadbeat was and why didn't I pay my bills) Oh those were some bad times. It was years ago now but I often wonder if the same people who called me are now getting those same phone calls they made. Wondering from where money is going to materialize. Thought they were gods and were without compassion. We want our money now!!! Kinda hard for me to feel sorry for any auto dealers, FORD, banks, credit card companies or any slimy credit dealer on earth. When the s h i t hits the fan for them they want bailouts and forgiveness and understanding, when it's you you loose you house and any investment in it, retirement plans, savings, stocks, promised bonuses, PAYCHECKS, and life as one knew it. I hope they get an over abundance of the harrassment about GIVE US OUR MONEY from the people they are borrowing from as they heap on the american consumer. Now that the tide has turned maybe now it won't be so funny because these people didn't just have issues with their own personal finances they are ruining the finances of the world and I don't think alot of people are finding that too humorous. I personally have stablized my money, my WORLD, and don't have any compassion what so ever for the creditors, they had none for me. So I say no rate cut, no bailouts, no help and let them wallow in their own cespool of the worst of the seven deadly sins and let's see how many of them handle the pressure of financial disaster and only time can work it out. Betcha' when they were laughing about how the bankruptcy rules were being changed and how they were going to get the people who made up a lot of bills and now were trying to get out of it, the deadbeats, they didn't know how that evil thinking would come back to bite them in the ass and a whole lot worse. I don't know if my job will be there. I don't know what will happen to real estate. I don't know what will happen period, that is something only time will tell but I hate to say aloud after what they put me through I would love to see a few of them fail and I hope I don't get caught in the crossfire but at least if I do, this time I won't be alone.

Considering that the sheeple have no real analytical skills, a tv show is the closest they can get to an objective analysis.

analysisBoy, look at the good life. Look how easy that is. We can do that. I bet we could make enough money to eat steak sandwiches!/analysis

I imagine this show has its fingerprints on many a household financial catastrophe. And like mentioned here recently, can it be possible that these networks are so clueless as to still be running these shows!?!? Seems hard to believe.

OK people, listen up, this is going to scare the crap out of you. Douglas Kanarowski has written a piece over at the Financial Sense website titled: U.S. Economic Report Card. I would suggest you read it, and prepare accordingly. The facts cannot be denied. (dopes, your gonna go home and cry to your mama after reading this) http://tinyurl.com/2569fp

"I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil."

Was it largely about oil?

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/nova051203.shtml

One of the major underlying reasons for the invasion of Iraq by the United States was in the defense of the American dollar. The Iraqi government did the unthinkable two years ago and began to sell what little oil they could for Euros, not dollars, establishing a precedent that the American government could not tolerate.

The power behind the American dollar is in its ability to buy and sell oil, it is also the worlds “Reserve Currency” which enables central banks of nations to defend its currencies to speculative trading by holding large reserves in American dollars.

So called old Europe has a devious hand in the Middle East where they used Iraq as a test case to undermine the dollar of its power to purchase oil. Indeed, this was one incredulous economic shot against the United States by the European Union which did not escape the attention of the Bush administration.

It is seen by American elites as an attack on the dollars worldwide monetary hegemony which the United States has had for decades that could not go unchallenged. It was a risk that France and Germany wanted to take, and never in their wildest dreams did they think that the American response would be to invade and effectively rape the country they hoped would be their foot hold to the oil rich Mid East.

The French and Germans greatly underestimated the Bush clan, but not all is lost, they might have lost this battle, but they will probably win the war between the Euro and the Dollar.

You bitch and complain about 'blood for oil' as you climb into your Hummer or Beemer as you drive yourself to the airport to take an international flight, Which is powered by petrolium. Not your inflated sense of self worth!

I have watched the 21st commercial again (http://tinyurl.com/2zsw2c). It can be summarized as:The guy – AdamHis wife – EveYou know who – The snakeTheir current house – Garden of EdenThe new house – Hell, and this exactly where they are headed

SNIP We've gotten into this fix because our presidents, of both parties, have been servants of the global investors, and because our representatives in Congress, again of both parties, have abdicated their Constitutional responsibilities and subjected themselves to an imperial presidency.

A "patriot" is defined as one who loves, supports, and defends his country. The Latin and Greek roots refer to "father." If, for a moment, we ignore the sexist nature of the ancient civilizations giving birth to the word, it is clear that to be a "patriot" is to have a parental love for the people of one's tribe or nation. One cannot have a "patriotic love" for the corporations in one's

SNIP

Based on the above, I contend that should some civilian order you to initiate a nuclear attack on Iran (for example), you are duty-bound to refuse that order. I might also suggest that you should consider whether the circumstances demand that you arrest whoever gave the order as a war criminal.

SNIP

Also in hindsight, President Bush could be court-martialed for abuse of power as Commander-in-Chief. Vice President Cheney could probably be court-martialed for his performance as Acting Commander-in-Chief in the White House bunker the morning of September 11, 2001 .

SNIP

We in the U.S. military would never consider a military coup, removing an elected president and installing one of our own. But following our oath of office, obeying the Nuremberg Principles, and preventing a rogue president from committing a war crime is not a military coup. If it requires the detention of executive branch officials, we will not impose a military dictatorship. We will let the Constitutional succession take place. This is what we are sworn to.

It's in the nature of real estate that the crumbling may continue for a while yet. "It's way too premature to be talking about light at the end of the tunnel--it's still pitch black," says Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics.

PS. Greenspan (on 60 minutes now) will not comment on the stock market or say which currency he is holding.The Housing Bubble is a Black swan, he sez he did not see it till the end of '05.:::EYES ROLL:::ooooooooooookkaaayyyyyyyyyyy

The idea seems quite compelling, and it would probably work well for responsible people who do not overspend and for those who try to live beneath their means. The amount of interest savings would be substantial. Do you not agree?

At issue is whether today's U.S. economy most resembles 1998, when Greenspan may have been too eager to cut interest rates, or 2000-2001, when he may have been too slow. The trouble is, the situation now resembles a bit of both.

That increases the danger as the Fed's Open Market Committee meets tomorrow to decide on interest-rate policy. If Bernanke and his colleagues aim to avoid the mistake of 1998 and opt for caution, they risk a recession. If they push ahead with big rate cuts and growth proves resilient, they could find themselves with rising inflation, fueled by record oil prices and a slumping dollar.

Because over 80 percent of the loans done nationally are "prime" loans (sold eventually to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac), the credit crunch or liquidity problems are having little effect on the majority of those seeking mortgage financing.

Here's a crazy idea. A lot of people are fleeing to gold, but none of them are actually holding physical gold. It's not going to do you much good in a doomsday scenario. But you can go to your bank and walk out with physical Euros and other currencies in hand. Just a thought, stemming from Greenspan's suggestion that you hold many currencies and from watching the lines at Northrock.

Assuming the lender is on the up-and-up, the problems I see with this deal are:

1. It's fundamentally an ARM tied to the LIBOR, 'nuff said eh?

2. With checking tied to the mortgage, you are in effect tapping a HELOC to meet expenses, so what happens if the lender goes tits up and your loan balance moves to another institution, it's unclear if money can come back out of the loan so easily.

It is of no surprise that the majority of posters on this blog that changes its name like a gangsta on the run, are imbecile renters working as code monkeys in IT. Your salaries are too small to ever afford a decent crib. Who else in their right mind would have time to fantasize about non-existing crashes and meltdowns? The only meltdown is happening on your tuna sandwich. Blowfly knows that there are the idiots that put down 20% on Miami condos last year and there are the other jackass morons that believe they can buy them condos for pennies on the dollar. These types of dimwits are congregating here on this blog. Get a f*cking life!!! There is only 1 way out of this mess, and this is to elect Blowfly for president. My program includes free chitlins in every pot, birth control pills in every purse and a national real estate bulldozing program that will get rid of the excess housing inventory on the market. As to the suffering home debtors, realtwhores, FBitches, mortgage scammers and appraisal illusionists...I have only 1 advice for you. Get down to jigtown cause there are job openings for y’all. They're now taking applications for drug dealers and hookers!

From the DOE site, Canada/Mexico, long standing allies (despite what people around here think of Mexican workers), are the two largest countries from which the US imports oil.

What the issue here is petrodollars and that's what the middle east's contesting, outside of the royal families bloc of Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi who're very petrodollar friendly. Unfortunately, it looks like the former Soviet bloc is also beginning to look to the Euro which makes the war less utilitarian to the ones in power today.

guess where this british renter has been tucking his savings away waiting for the crash.....

....fortunately i took notice of the limits and only have around £35k at northern rock, but the bad news is that my money is in year long fixed term bonds which penalise me 60 days worth of interest if i close out on 'em.

so i could take the money out and lose about £350 or i could risk losing more like £3500 if the bank of england's assistance isn't enough to keep the rock alive until my bonds mature (one in november, one in march) + another six months worth of interest while i wait for the compensation payout.

i reckon the chance of a compete bust is still so low (a takeover seems highly likely) that it isn't worth pulling my investments early. that and standing in line for eight hours when i could be working doesn't seem a great plan.

Hey Keith, check out CNN Money.com. I guess Countrywide "is" the new Enron. The workers who lost money in their 401K are now suing Orange man in a class action lawsuit. Man, how history repeats itself....

I see the same thing coming for some of the other lenders around. I guess carma is correct. What goes around comes around. Hopefully Orange man will get investigated by the feds and end up like Skilling.....in an orange jumpsuit. Man that would be crazy, since he is already orange.

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) on Monday claimed "huge success" with its weekend sales blitz, which included six-figure discounts on homes being built or completed in 19 states.

The preliminary results from the "Deal of the Century" event exceeded expectations, said Ara Hovnanian, president and CEO.

"The high level of traffic we saw in our sales offices and models over the weekend and over the past several weeks convinces us that there are interested buyers in the market today," he said. "However, with all of the negative publicity about the housing market, many home buyers were hesitant to buy because they worried that even lower prices might be offered later."

Thomas Richlovsky, National City treasurer and senior vice president said loans at risk of foreclosure or already in foreclosure are a small part of National City's approximately $41 billion in residential real estate and home equity assets.

The value of residential real estate assets considered nonperforming, in which there are concerns about ability to collect interest and loan payments, rose to $236 million in August, compared with $149 million in August 2006, according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Securities lawyers are standing at the ready, with some firms creating special groups to focus exclusively on the mortgage mess.

Among the group's clients are Wall Street banks that are suing subprime lenders to get them to repurchase loans that went bad shortly after they were sold. Antonoff expects the group to keep busy, most likely into 2009.Credit agencies, which graded billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities as safe investments throughout the recent housing boom, are also feeling the heat.

Oh what a pile-up this is becoming. American Home Mortgage's crack-up means that homeowner tax payments are bouncing:

http://tinyurl.com/33an6h

I like this gem from the article:

Robinson worries that American Home Mortgage's bounced checks are just the beginning of an emerging problem prompted by the turmoil in the lending industry this year. He suspects that some lenders short on cash have dipped into escrow funds to cover operating expenses.

So you think it is right to rob oil? Are you saying that this is what the US is doing in Iraq? Is not in that case any killing of an American in Iraq legitimate self defense (and not terrorism)?

I hope some day someone shoots you when you try to take his car, his money or his wife. Does anyone wonder why Europeans consider G.W more dangerous than Ben Laden? and the US a more dangerous coutry than Iran?

And to area 51, sept. 16th, 11:50

it is not France and Germany saying now that war with Iran might be inevitable. It is some nutty, publicity maniac French foreign minister who has no legitimacy what so ever to utter such nonsense in the name of the French (I never heard a German politician say anything in that direction). The US has nuclear weapons and even dangerous morons who think that the US has the right just to take what it needs regardless of the law and ethics. It is in a very awkward position telling other states that they are not allowed to have them too. It's like robbers and assassins trying to prevent others from also having arms.

You know that feeling… when you realize things are getting bad, but they probably won’t get much worse. But then you do some fact checking and come up with some charts and graphs and facts that indicate there’s a pretty good chance that things are going to get worse. Probably a lot worse. And you really want to be wrong, but you’re pretty sure you’re not.

I’m going to cover a few of the biggest problems in America, backed up with cold hard facts (many of which come directly from the US government). The conclusion I draw is pretty obvious, the US dollar is in decline, both in monetary value, and in status as a world reserve currency. I also believe that this decline will continue.

Ara Hovnanian selling his property in exclusive Rumson NJ. This being around the same time his company, stock quote HOV, was having a fire sale on the purchase of new homes they built here in NJ. Discounts are as high as $150k.

Research shows he paid $6.75 million in '05. Now asking $7.2 million. The mls is: 20738770.

So, he is selling his personal house and having huge company fire sale discounts because the market has reached the bottom, as he states. I guess in real estate the seller should try to sell for the least amount of money possible and at the end of a downward price cycle.

A total of 243,947 foreclosure filings were reported in August, up 115 percent from 113,300 in the same month a year ago, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Tuesday...

Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month, the firm said.

Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 165 households — more than three times the national average. The state had 6,197 filings in August, an increase of 21 percent from July and more than triple the year-ago figure.

California's foreclosure rate was one filing for every 224 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 57,875, up 48 percent from July and an increase of more than 300 percent from August 2006.

Florida had one foreclosure filing for every 243 households. In all, the state reported 33,932 foreclosure filings, up 77 percent from July's total and more than twice the year-ago total.

Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Indiana rounded out the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates. [link]

I nominate Ara Hovnanian for crook-of-the-year. I think he makes David Lereah, Lawrence Yun, and even Orange Mozilo look like school yard thieves. This guy oozes lies, corruption, and misinformation. A brief history of Ara:

* Suggests collusion among homebuilders; insists they raise instead of lower prices.* Knowingly calls a false housing bottom...* ...and that same week has a 25% off sale to move 2000 houses...* ...while he lists his own home for sale.

He's a two bit player compared to Mozilo, but magnified into the hundreds of millions Ara Hovnanian would be deadly. I wouldn't trust him to drive my car into the carwash...

Boy I heard a good one last night. I got friends that live in DC and they hired a " project manager" to do work on their house. They decided to downsize the project and therefore didnt spend all the money that the project manager had in her account. They have a invoice that shows they are due to receive money back 7K. Now the lady refuses to talk or pay the money back, now the kicker she is married to US Congressman Wu (D) from Oregon. I told them to start writing his office and then go public to the papers if any will cover this story. It just shows you how deep this real estate scam goes.

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The world economy ``is probably at its scariest point since the Depression'' as fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis crimps access to credit, said Ethan Penner, a pioneer of the $600 billion commercial mortgage-backed securities market in the early 1990s.

``We're probably at the closest point to a big meltdown, a depression-type meltdown than we have been in our lives,'' said Penner, 46, now a principal at real estate fund management firm Lubert-Adler Partners LP in Philadelphia, during a speech at a Real Estate Media Inc. conference in New York.

westwest888 said... Here's a crazy idea. A lot of people are fleeing to gold, but none of them are actually holding physical gold. It's not going to do you much good in a doomsday scenario. But you can go to your bank and walk out with physical Euros and other currencies in hand. Just a thought, stemming from Greenspan's suggestion that you hold many currencies and from watching the lines at Northrock.

September 17, 2007 4:39 PM

------------------

Will pieces of paper with numbers on them do you much good in a "doomsday" scenario? I think not...

I'm actually looking to buy a house today. I'm looking at getting something well within my means.

I have my eye on a house that looks like it has been on the market for 3 months (Seattle area) and has dropped from 390 to 350 then (within this week) to 329 and 299 last night.

I'm planning on offering 285. Does anyone think this is a spectacularly dumb move and I should stay out longer? The house looks ideal and I can't see prices going significantly lower than the 30% reduction in three months in this particular area, at least not in 6-7 years from now when I plan on potentially selling.

I know HPers are die-hard renters/ owners without a mortgage, but at some point I want a house that I can fix up the way that *I* want. Is now the time? :)

As of Monday, the federal debt stood at $8.914 trillion, about $52 billion below the limit. Paulson had previously estimated that the debt limit would be breached in early October, but based on estimated September's corporate and individual income tax payments, he said this would now occur on October 1.

The Treasury can take a number of emergency measures to stay under the debt limit for a period of time if the Senate fails to increase the debt limit.

These include temporarily diverting money from several federal employee pension and disability funds and dipping into the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a seldom-used pool of money earmarked to stabilize currency rates. The Treasury also can suspend issuance of debt securities to state and local governments and sell more short-term cash management bills to gain more precise day-to-day control over federal finances.

Paulson has expressed reluctance to resort to such measures, saying they could create unnecessary uncertainty for financial markets already rocked by U.S. housing woes and a credit squeeze.

The so-called Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007, otherwise known as H.R. 1852, passed the House of Representatives today in a 348-72 vote — a landslide approval for FHA reform.

Lawmakers also approved by voice vote an amendment offered by Reps. Barney Frank (D-MA), Gary Miller (R-CA) and Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) that would hike the FHA lending limit to $730,000 in high-cost metropolitan markets. The Bush administration had originally proposed increasing the FHA limit from $362,790 to the $417,000 conforming limit.

Perhaps Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui is suggesting to People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan on Thursday when they met at the BOJ's headquarters in Tokyo that the Yuan should be pegged to the Yen instead of the US Dollar.

The German cabinet has approved plans to plug a shortage of skilled labor by relaxing work restrictions on engineers from new EU member states as well as lowering barriers for foreign students to work in Germany.

Engineers from the mainly southern and eastern European nations will be allowed to work in Germany from Nov. 1, if the cabinet's decision is approved by parliament next month.

The dollar rose Wednesday from a record low versus the euro as traders sold the European currency to protect their option bets.

The dollar rebounded from the biggest loss in more than two months after the first reduction in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve since June 2003. Investors sold the euro to prevent it from reaching $1.40 because a break at that level would render option bets worthless, traders said.

"Option barriers are in place," said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. "There is a lot of protection. We had a big move yesterday, and people need fresh impetus to push the euro higher. The bigger picture is still a weaker dollar."

A couple of very wealthy Portland, OR developers didn't want to pay taxes (or wanted to pay a lot less taxes). So they each sank $14 million in a tax shelter that folded (went bankrupt) and was not sanctioned by the IRS.

Given that I gladly pay every last penny of my taxes owed, all I can say is, too bad, so sad.

Moody's Investors Service started publishing indexes of U.S. commercial real estate prices that will serve as the basis for financial contracts to let investors bet on property values rising or falling.

The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices will be calculated and published based on actual sales rather than appraisals, New York-based Moody's said today. Moody's will provide research and commentary for the indexes and its partner in the effort, Real Estate Analytics LLC, and plans to develop and trade derivatives based on the measures.

The boom in commercial real estate investment has stalled after costs surged because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

I posted a few weeks ago about the strength of the high end market in Boston based on my observations. Here is confirmation from a story in the Globe. The high end is rocking here with no signs of a dip. Professionals in this city are flush with cash and spending it on housing without gimmicky mortgages. BTW, the Warren Group is a highly respectable organization that provides accurate data on the Massachusetts market. They consistently and accurately contradict the MAR.

So while Phoenix, Vegas, Sacramento and most of Florida may be a basket case things look fine in suburban Boston.

Can someone explain to me what effect raising the FHA limit has or what it is intended do do.

Does the FHA give cheaper loans to people who could otherwise not qualify?

If so the way I see it is that now pretty much anyone can get a $730K loan, no matter what. Sounds to me like we're back to 2004 and the days of illegals making $20K a year buying $700K homes.

And if that happens won't home prices go right back up? All the risk is now gone. Countrywide will lend everyone $730K. If they don't pay it back, who cares, they get the money from the government. So much for the credit crunch.

This makes so much more sense....I wondered all along, wtf was goingon, and I thought, who is thischarade benefitting, certainly notthe overdebted homeowner, sinceall housing was overpriced compared to incomes, never mind what kind ofmortgage you had..

RE agent capitulates in the face of those armed with the financial facts.

Friend took up one of those free weekend offers by a time share in the caribbean. The got a free flight, free weekend, free brunch and 200 in free casino chips. They went to the seminar sales pitch and got a personal tour of the grounds by an agent.

Finally, the issue of price came up. Before the agent got to price he said if you commit to buy into the timeshare they will give you a free week immediately with all the same perks they just had for the weekend.

Price for the room and tiem frame the preferred was 27k+, an annual maintenance fee of 1600+ which may adjust upward annually, you'd be subject to special assessments and of course you'd pay for your own air fare in the future.

My buddy says "so basically its 30k"

Response "YES"

Buddy "Well if I put that same amt of cash in a 5% tax free muni bond fund I'd at least generate the cost of my air fare and then I could just incur the cost of a hotel and all other costs would be the same (cab/rental, meals etc) but in the end I would still have my 30k and not be tied down to coming here ever year. So why would I want to tie up my 30k, pay for the air fare and flexibility as to when and where I want to take a vacation?

The agent say "You're absolutely right. Most people do not care about that until after its too late, they just jump on the free week and then complain the following year when they cannot/do not want to come or get upset about the annual fee increase."

And with that the sales pitch was over, they finished there stay and left.

I could not help but notice the dynamic was no different than all the jokers who took out ARMs who are now crying about them. They just wanted the low downpayment and did not care about needing the pay the piper back in a few years, well they are here now and I wear ear plugs to block it out and bring in cheese to the office sometimes to go with their whine!!

My father pasted away November '05 from cancer. While helping my mother get her financial life in order the following Spring, we were going through records that my dad had stored in a locked file cabinet. That's when we discovered that Dad was a financial wizard.

He purchased their track home in 1979 for 1150 oz of Silver. [Purchased home outright with dollars received from the sale of silver coin. We found the receipts in a log he kept.] Dad took after my Grandfather, who was a well known silver buff among friends and family.

I remember being at a family gathering 4-5 years ago listening to my Dad talk about how the U.S. Gov't was dumping the last of its vast silver hoard on the market, causing silver prices to drop into the $4 to $5 range. He told anyone who would listen that this was the time to buy silver.

He was on Social Security and had little money to invest (so we believed)-- so nobody in the family paid much attention to what he said. My mother was unaware that he had obtained a 1st mortgage on this property in 2001 for $478,000 despite the fact that she signed the mortgage papers. (My dad, a college grad, always took care of the finances and my mother, [who failed to finish high school] would do what ever he told her to do and would never question anything. Mom told me that he drove her around town a few years ago and made her sign a bunch of legal papers at several banks. She had no idea what she was doing but he told her that it was to take care of her after he died. At the time he knew he had terminal cancer with only a few years left.

In April '06, I was going through Dad's old filing cabinet, and discovered that Dad had used the $478,000 loan to purchase 86,400 oz of silver bullion over many transactions. He also had a separate checking account in his own name that showed everything he spend the $478K on. He made the mortgage payments out of this account, he paid for 23 safety deposit boxes at different banks out of this account. (good thing - because this is how we found out where he stored the physical silver) When I found the checking account it still had over $35K in it.

My mother did not want to keep the house and live in it alone, so the house was put on the market and sold for $572,900 in June '06. After the mortgage was paid off and the realtor fees, etc. She walked away from the closing table with $51K. We then consolidated all of the cash [Dad had a few other joint accounts with Mom that she knew about] into one savings account for Mom in July '06 giving her $146K in savings and $3K in a separate checking account. Mom told me that only her and I know about the silver and she wanted to keep it that way.

Dad kept everything, and I then found his copies of all the safe deposit box accounts. He had put every one of these boxes in my mother's name.

Mom now lives as a renter in an upscale retirement community. $2300/ mo rent. She loves it-- she has made so many new friends and she has no worries or upkeep of a house.

Four months ago, Mom called me out of the blue and told me to take a day off of work to spend time with her. I agreed and put in for some PTO time.

It was a Friday morning and I picked my Mom up at her retirement community. I asked her if she wanted to go to the park, she said no. She handing me a list of banks and addresses. She told me that we were going to each of these banks and close out the safety deposit boxes. Her and I have keep the silver a secret from the Family, nobody else knows about it. She told me that she knows a 2nd great depression is coming and that I'm the only one in the family who seems to "Get it". She told me that she wants me to take care of the family (meaning my 5 brothers and sisters and their kids) in the event of major hardships. She told me to keep this a secrete for the rest of my life. I agreed. We spent the rest of the day closing out the safety deposit boxes in her name and re-opening them in my name. We checked the contents of each box --- all were stuffed full of 100 oz bars of silver.

I sold enough silver off to payoff my car and house. I kept my state job as a chemist. I will help my brothers and sisters if they fall on their face.

Starting to see the calm before the storm. We live over in Pasadena CA. My wife is a Doctor with a cash only practice - she doesn't take insurance. She works in a professional building with lawyers and architects.

The practice is only 4 years old but in the last 18 months she's built it to the point where she's been booked 2-3 weeks out. That is until this month. Her schedule is lighter than I've seen it in 3 years.

The architect upstairs took August and September off. The slowest he's seen it in 20 years.

And now the blame game starts. It must be the builder who charged too much for the house, or the “blood-sucking” mortgage broker who facilitated a loan, or the bank for extending credit we should never have had. Now, there’s a new extreme - the investors who purchased mortgages with thousands of others from financial institutions.

The blame falls on us, homeowners, and none of the above. Though we want to blame the financial institutions for coming up with these products, as long as loan terms were fully disclosed, it is our responsibility to make the right financial decisions, not theirs. Any product can be dangerous if not used responsibly. Even a hair dryer, if used while taking a shower, could lead to untimely death. The financial products (i.e. mortgages, home-equity loans, credit cards) are electrified by compounding, and if not used appropriately, could lead to financial distress.

Though some would like to - and many will - plead ignorance, it is disingenuous. With the exception of outright fraud, buyers knew they were biting off more than they could chew. They knew interest rates would reset and mortgage payments could increase, or at least it was their job to find out before they committed to the biggest purchase of their life. But that was in the future, and they lived in the now. The future is today, and there is a price to pay. Buyers need to stop blaming everybody but themselves and own up to mistakes.

Gold hit a 28-year high on Friday as the dollar's continued slide to record lows versus the euro raised the metal's appeal to speculative investors.

Other precious metals also advanced, with silver rising to its highest in more than three months, platinum hitting its highest since early May and palladium touching a five-week peak.

Spot gold rose as high as $739 an ounce, its highest since January 1980, also helped by technical buying and short-covering.

"There has been substantial safe-haven buying. The dollar has weakened to record lows and we have revised our forecast up for oil as well. On the top of that environment, there is anticipation of slower U.S. growth momentum and Fed rate easing," said Suki Copper, analyst at Barclays Capital.

"These factors are very supportive for gold and we see prices traveling even higher. The positive investor sentiment is very evident in the ETF positions and also in the Comex futures positions."

The central bank of Taiwan or the central bank of the Republic of China decided to increase discount rate by 12.5 basis points to 3.25% in its Monetary Policy Meeting Thursday.

Also, the rate on accommodations with collateral and the rate on accommodations without collateral rose 12.5 basis points each to 3.625% and 5.5%, respectively. The changes will be effective from September 21.

Yen Carry Trade back at play pumping excess global liquidity back into the Market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=adJ66a6q3POE

The yen dropped the most in a week against the dollar and touched a six-week low versus the euro as gains in U.S. stocks and falling corporate borrowing costs encouraged investors to resume risky bets.

Japan's yen declined against all 16 major currencies as investors jumped back into the so-called carry trade.

In a nutshell, this is my basic understanding of our situation. Is this correct?

1. Sub-prime loans were packaged into CDOs.2. CDOs were sold to hedge funds in the market.3. hedge funds borrowed (in commercial paper) against the CDOs three times over because they are asset backed (by houses). 4. sub-prime borrowers begin to default in record numbers (i.e. the value of the assets starts to plummet).5. owners of CDOs, who have borrowed billions against them, and the banks, who lent billons, realize they don't know the value of the CDOs. Are they worthless?6. The market for CDOs dries up. CDO owners can't make payment on their debts because they can't sell them or borrow against them.7. The CDO market was the engine driving the housing bubble. The engine broken, the housing bubble collapses. Property values plummet faster and further then anyone ever thought possible.8. The CDO owners default on trillions of dollars of debt. 9. The banks are facing billions in losses individually and potentially trillions collectively (i.e. 10-20% of the U.S. GDP disappears?). 10. Congress, the bush administration and the fed try to prop up the sub-prime borrower (stabilize the asset value) and make money cheaper (fed lowers rates) to prevent an economic collapse. 11. Banks hoard cash in anticipation of huge losses. The fed cranks out more dollars to prop up the money supply. The dollar's value drops to a record low in currency markets as foreign banks and governments dump dollars to minimize losses. 12. The U.S. economy contracts as consumer spending plummets in response to the dollar falling in value and high inflation. The stock market collapses. Property values (in real dollars) return to pre-1999 levels.

Speculators and Hedge Funds investing in Sand Oil driving up the Loonie and pushing down the Dollar this will force Crude Oil to go even higher as the Federal Reserve spin news of recession to get the average Joe to buy treasury to try drive up the Dollar.

INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION!

http://technicaltradingpatterns.blogspot.com/

For the first time in nearly 31 years, it look less than one Canadian dollar to buy one U.S. dollar.

The rise in value of the Canadian dollar is an energy story. With crude oil futures trading at more than $83 U.S., investment capital is pouring north to help extract oil from so-called tar sands, also known as oil sands, in the province of Alberta.

The average cost to produce a barrel from tar sands is $40 to $45.

With rumors that Saudi Arabia could seek to abandon its U.S. currency peg only making things worse. It seems like a perfect storm for the U.S. Dollar and the Federal Reserve stepped right into it when they cut rates 0.50%.

If the Fed's cutting rates, then it must be blowing another bubble, right? But it's not going to be tech stocks or housing again, so what's left? Green technology, obviously, is bubblicious right now, but it's also tiny: investment of $6 billion this year might be up 60% from last year, but it's still a long way from the point at which a crash could cause any real damage.

In today's WSJ, Justin Lahart and Joanna Slater put forward a different asset class: emerging markets, which are now officially trading on higher multiples than their developed-market counterparts. Everybody seems to think a bubble is forming, and everybody is very excited about this: after all, bubbles have the ability to make a lot of money for a lot of people before they burst, and most people in any case tend to overestimate their ability to get out before the crash.

The frothiness in emerging-market debt has already been and gone, and it does make a certain amount of sense that emerging-market equity will be next, especially so long as commodity prices – which drive many emerging-market economies

The market is now pondering whether the Fed is going to cut rates further in the coming months. After all, in Bernanke's testimony on Thursday, he did not baby-talk the lawmakers by saying the US economy is going to be fine.

Instead, he seemed to be more on the cautious side. If the Fed does slash rates down the road, the US dollar is likely to get weaker, and the Euro would benefit.

In a nutshell, this is my basic understanding of our situation. Is this correct? __________________________________

IMHO, yes, with a few caveats:

1. Sub-prime loans were packaged into CDOs. MOST LOANS WERE PACKAGED INTO CDOS--PRIME (AAA RATING), ALT A (BBB rating), AND SUB-PRIME (CCC rating). AND NOT JUST MORTGAGE LOANS, BUT CAR LOANS AND CREDIT CARD LOANS ALSO.2. CDOs were sold to hedge funds in the market. ALSO TO PENSION FUNDS AND OTHER INVESTMENT BANKS.3. Hedge funds borrowed (in commercial paper) against the CDOs three times over because they are asset backed (by houses). THE LEVERAGE CAN BE AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 TIMES AND MAYBE MORE. SOMETIMES THE CDOs WERE SQUARED AND CUBED BEFORE BEING SOLD. AND THE ASSETS WEREN'T JUST HOUSING MORTGAGES.4. Sub-prime borrowers begin to default in record numbers (i.e. the value of the assets starts to plummet). THE ALT A BORROWERS ARE DEFAULTING AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE AS THE SUB-PRIME BORROWERS. EVEN THE RATE OF DEFAULT FOR PRIME BORROWERS IS MOVING UPWARDS. HOUSING ASSETS HAVE DROPPED IN VALUE BECAUSE THERE IS TOO MUCH SUPPLY (OF HOUSES) AND TOO LITTLE DEMAND (OF BUYERS). 5. Owners of CDOs, who have borrowed billions against them, and the banks, who lent billons, realize they don't know the value of the CDOs. Are they worthless? THEIR VALUE DEPENDS ON THEIR RATINGS BUT, IN REALITY, THEY WERE MARKED TO MODEL (OR MYTH) AND NOT TO MARKET, SO WHO KNOWS WHAT THEIR TRUE VALUE IS AND IF THEY WILL EVER BE SOLD.6. The market for CDOs dries up. CDO owners can't make payment on their debts because they can't sell them or borrow against them. TRUE. THEIR DEBTS ARE OFTEN MARGIN CALLS OR DEMANDS FOR COLLATERAL PAYMENTS SO THE THREAT OF INSOLVENCY BECOMES AN ISSUE.7. The CDO market was the engine driving the housing bubble. The engine broken, the housing bubble collapses. Property values plummet faster and further then anyone ever thought possible. THE HOUSING BUBBLE DROVE THE DERIVATIVE MARKET FIRST BUT NOW, BECAUSE OF ITS SIZE, THE DERIVATIVE MARKET IS DRIVING THE HOUSING MARKET. THE HOUSING BUBBLE, THE DERIVATIVE MARKET, AND THE COMMERCIAL PAPER MARKET ARE ALL IN TROUBLE. THE ENGINE HASN'T SHUT DOWN YET, BUT ITS' SPUTTERING.8. The CDO owners default on trillions of dollars of debt. AND NOT TO MENTION ALL THE HOMEOWNERS WHO DEFAULT ON THEIR MORTGAGES BECAUSE THEY CAN'T MAKE THEIR NEW MONTHLY PAYMENTS AFTER ARM OR HELOC ADJUSTMENTS.9. The banks are facing billions in losses individually and potentially trillions collectively (i.e. 10-20% of the U.S. GDP disappears?). TRUE, ALTHOUGH IT'S HARD TO SPECULATE ABOUT GLOBAL LOSSES AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE USA GDP IS INVOLVED.10. Congress, the Bush Administration and the Fed try to prop up the sub-prime borrower (stabilize the asset value) and make money cheaper (fed lowers rates) to prevent an economic collapse. YEP, THEIR FEELING THAT THIS IS GOING TO HELP THE SITUATION IS ABSURD BUT TOUCHING. NO DOUBT IT'S A GREAT WAY TO PLACATE THE MASSES UNTIL THE ROOF CAVES IN.11. Banks hoard cash in anticipation of huge losses. The fed cranks out more dollars to prop up the money supply. The dollar's value drops to a record low in currency markets as foreign banks and governments dump dollars to minimize losses. BANKS ARE HOARDING CASH AND FOREIGN CBs ARE DUMPING THE DOLLAR, TRUE. BUT THE FED IS NOT CRANKING OUT DOLLARS; THEY ARE OFFERING TO LOAN MONEY TO BANKS AT THE DISCOUNT WINDOW. B-52 BEN ISN'T DROPPING MONEY FROM HELICOPTERS YET, EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS THAT WAY.12. The U.S. economy contracts as consumer spending plummets in response to the dollar falling in value and high inflation. The stock market collapses. Property values (in real dollars) return to pre-1999 levels. YES, THE ECONOMY WILL CONTRACT AND THE STOCK MARKET WILL TAKE A HIT EVENTUALLY. BUT WHO KNOWS HOW BAD THE DAMAGE WILL BE? PROPERTY VALUES WILL DROP DEPENDING ON LOCAL MARKETS, WITH THE COASTAL MARKETS AND LAS VEGAS FALLING MORE THAN THE RUST BELT AND THE SOUTH.

responding to anon 9/21/07 7:44 BB..not sure if it is the calm before the storm here in north atlanta, it is more like a storm brewing. I have seen an increase in criminal activity in otherwise "good" and safe areas, more gang grafitti. My local subway sandwich shop in a nice area, installed more cameras to watch the employees because they are stealing more than usual. A lot of people here seem to be feeling the pinch and the natives are getting restless. A storm is brewing here.

CNN is trying to spin how a devalued US dollar is good and will help draw more tourism and increase our exports like cars and Ipods. Somehow I don't think GM and Apple can keep our economy going as strong as it had been before the housing crash.

I live almost 60 miles from Boston in Worcester County (much cheaper than eastern counties and crappier schools). I live about 45 minutes from work (35 miles). Mapquest says 1 hour 15 minutes to Boston and this is true ONLY when there is no traffic!

I am trying to sell my house to move very close to work. Ipaid 335k in 2004. I now have it listed at 309K. (UGH!!!!!) I has been on for a few weeks over a year now and we JUSt got our first offer and it came in at 280k!!! WTF. We have 8.5 acres and a natural waterfall that we dreamed of one day putting hydroelectirc power on. We will get nothing close to this good where we plan on moving and will likely get a crappy hous ebut will have less of a commute to spend more time with our kids. We may or may not have an extra lot on thie property but have never surveyed to find out.

The person who offered is a flipper which I know because I looked at public records. His offer includes that he wants ot have a survey done before he buy the house supposedly because he wants to put in a pool but I bet he wants to get at least one more lot (some has water on it).

What woudl you do? I told her to counter with 300k as the counter offer and that if they do the survey it has to be done within the same 10 days they do the hous einspection in (just in case they decide to cancel the purchase in case there is not extra lot). If they do cancel the realtor wrote up that they have to give us the plot plan form the survey.

I am nervous abotu the counter offer he might give. Shoudl I go down in price anymore? Zillow says my home is worth about 340k but I am not sur ehow accurate it is. Also, the other perosn whoi looked at my hous ethe other day said they thought it was priced fairly in my realtors survey but di dnot place an offer becasue they did not liek the wya the land wa set up for his anials.

Sorry for such a big post but I wanted to give details so i could get he best advice. I also don't want to be stuck in this area forever in case prices keep on dropping. Also, th ebuyer wants to close end of October so we are thinking of renting.I wonder if prices will go down more closer to boston if we rent a while?

"Anonymous said... My father pasted away November '05 from cancer......we were going through records that my dad had stored in a locked file cabinet. That's when we discovered that Dad was a financial wizard......I remember being at a family gathering 4-5 years ago listening to my Dad talk about how the U.S. Gov't was dumping the last of its vast silver hoard on the market, causing silver prices to drop into the $4 to $5 range. He told anyone who would listen that this was the time to buy silver.......In April '06, I was going through Dad's old filing cabinet, and discovered that Dad had used the $478,000 loan to purchase 86,400 oz of silver bullion over many transactions........We spent the rest of the day closing out the safety deposit boxes in her name and re-opening them in my name. We checked the contents of each box --- all were stuffed full of 100 oz bars of silver

Dad, if you can read this post from Heaven, I love you!!!"

Good for you, and my hat's off to dad! BUT, what happens to all that silver when the government does another 30's Roosevelt number and outlaws ALL precious metal bullion in private hands (not just gold this time) and you can't open any of those safe deposit boxes without armed I.R.S. agents standing over you, waiting to seize anything that glimmers! I'm not going to offer financial alternatives, enough of the posters here have more than enough opinions, but I think they would all agree that having EVERYTHING in precious metals and ALL OF IT in safe deposit boxes, sounds like a potential for disaster, when and if the sh#t hits the fan!

$350,000 one bedroom sold for $176,000 (1/2 Price)$600,000 two bedroom sold for $295,000 (1/2 Price)

I don't think you guys realize how huge this is...Miami condo's are now officially (my math is bad) 100% over valued? Condo's are now going for 1/2 off what they were just 3 months ago. This is the biggest real estate crash in history.

The Miami Herald reported today a crowd of more than three hundred people who packed a Marriott hotel ballroom to bid on 20 units at Platinum Condominiums. "In May a one-bedroom on the 14th floor closed for $360,000. But Thursday night, two one-bedroom condos on the tower's 16th and 18th floors couldn't crack $220,000."

“This will help people coming into the market to buy homes,” said Jan Wright, a San Diego real estate agent, who specializes in selling foreclosed or distressed properties. “But adjustable rates are going to go up no matter what. Anyone who has two-year, three-year or five-year adjustable notes is going to get HOSED no matter what.

8.5 acres with a water supply? Gee that sounds heavenly - you couldn't dig me out of a crib like that with a backhoe. Especially for $300k. Someday that place is going to be worth a lot more, because you have 8.5 acres. It's doubtful you'll get anything near as good closer to Boston for the same money. Sure you need to move? Ideas (but not advice): Can't you adjust your working hours to avoid the worst of the traffic? Maybe telecommute occasionally? Rent a place closer to work and rent your property to someone else?

Well, the guy didn't even counter. He was a slime ball just trying to take advantage. I might have been dumb enough to buy in 2004 but not dumb enough to not put way the hell more than 20% down and then proceed to pay it off as much as I could. Looks like I may just end up renting it out in a little while after I get it down enough to re-cast it maybe at half what I will charge for rent so I can have someone take care of it for me. Then I will rent near work. Then SOMEDAY I will put in hydro electric power when everyone else has to pay way to much for electric and I will be paid for it. Ah well, I may have the long commute now but maybe someday I will not anymore and I will get free electricity? Who knows. Still trying to sell though cause it woudl be easier to just have a good downpayment to buy another place after renting a while while prices drop! Thanks for the advice.

The part I don't get is how the CDO owners could of got loans off the CDO holdings at such a increased amount of the face value . That would be the same as giving a 500k loan against a 100k property and expecing that value to be enough to support that loan .

My next question is what did the CDO holders invest in that they needed to take out such high loan amounts against lower valued CDO's.

My next question is ,who gave the CDO holders these loans based on lower valued CDO holdings and wouldn't that be giving a unsecured loan really ?

I guess I just don't get it . But let say it was true that CDO holders could borrower against 10x' the face value of the CDO holding ,than what in the hell did they invest in with that borrowed money? Please don't tell me that they invested in more CDO's .

The consequence of the past week's Debacle - unintended to be sure - is that the need to preserve current retail banking institutions, no matter their lending policies or business model that may have left them overly dependent on one particular source of finance, will take precedence over longer term considerations and the need to bear down on inflation. And lest you think inflation poses little risk to customer deposits in retail banks, consider this: with a rate of3.5% inflation the value of savings is halved over a lifetime.

In any 'normal' period, such a signal of the primacy of government interests would be dangerous enough. In a period that coincided with the oil price climbing above $80 a barrel and food raw materials such as wheat hitting new highs, the longer term consequences could prove catastrophic.

For that reason, the likelihood of a smooth return to 'normality' needs to be treated with caution. Commerzbank economist Peter Dixon, in one of the best analyses of the crisis to appear in the past week, is right to point out that bank crises are neither new nor infrequent (US savings and loans 1986-1995, Scandinavian bank problems in the early 1990s, Japanese banks through the entire 1990s, and Asian banks in 1997 and 1998). Also, severe though the problems have been for Northern Rock, "we do not appear", Dixon concludes, "to be facing a systemic crisis".

However, amid such an eminently sensible argument against over-dramatising the credit crisis of recent months, two points must be borne in mind. The first is that both in America and the UK, economic growth has come to rely too heavily on a continuing asset price bubble - property - that now shows dangerous signs of bursting after five years of historically cheap credit.

The second is the greater moral hazard or macro risk of effectively underwriting injudicious, if not irresponsible, lending practices to sustain the growth of bank profits. Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, was right to warn in his letter to the Treasury select committee, just before the Northern Rock crisis broke, that "moral hazard is not an abstract concept" and that the provision of greater short-term liquidity support "undermines the efficient pricing of risk by providing ex-post insurance for risky behaviour. That encourages excessive risk-taking and sows the seeds of a future financial crisis." Little wonder the commercial banks squealed in protest.

The Federal Reserve has lost credibility and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is still providing lip service.

Do as I said and not as I do.

Foreign Central banks have lost faith in the US Dollar

Hopefully oversea Asian investors have not lost faith in the US Dollar because we need them to buy the Mortgage Backed Securities in US Dollar because when we dump those bad loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we still need some suckers to pick them up.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=93521

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday that a strong U.S. dollar was in American interests was in American interests.Paulson repeated that the Bush administration was open to temporarily allowing housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy larger loans.

@ Annonomous 5:11 AM,Not about CDO's specifically, but explains A LOT about the system. Enjoy.FMW

MONEY AS DEBT

Paul Grignon's 47-minute animated presentation of "Money as Debt" tells in very simple and effective graphic terms what money is and how it ... all » is being created. It is an entertaining way to get the message out. The Cowichan Citizens Coalition and its "Duncan Initiative" received high praise from those who previewed it. I recommend it as a painless but hard-hitting educational tool and encourage the widest distribution and use by all groups concerned with the present unsustainable monetary system in Canada and the United States.

********************************** CORRECTION NOTICE: The movie link in this below post has been corrected for all those who wish to see the movie. From the thread, "Who is the Dumbest person you know?"**********************************

I am the dumbest person I know!

I know nothing, except that I was born into this world and have been subjected to propaganda, lies, and deceipt ever since.===========================Bravo to you! You read like Socrates who always said that he knew nothing and would question other people to prove that they also knew nothing of the truth.================================

The books, and most realtors, willtell a buyer that they should gobeyond "preapproval", and providea "funding approval letter" withthe offer. But I regret doing this.

Funding approval requires a "hard"credit check" rather than aroutine check. Just havinga "hard" credit check countsagainst your credit score.And the seller has a lever, inthat you don't want to getanother "hard" check if the dealfails four months after thefunding approval date.

You might look for another twomonths for another home you want,but then the original fundsapproval has expired, and if asecond deal falls through, youhave two hard checks on yourcredit record, with no mortgageon the credit record.

This happened to me for the sameproperty, six months apart, due tovarious 'REO' games and frauds forlitigation, and my two "hard"credit checks took maybe 40 pointsof my score (without any other negative factor developing), particularly since no mortgagewas finalized and on the record.

You need to show the buyer youhave the means to get the dealdone, but, I will avoid gettingthe actual "funding approval"until a contract is signed andreturned to me. ........ Sucker-Punched

The Canadian dollar burst through parity with the US dollar on Thursday for the first time in 31 years, underlining the robustness of Canada's economy and its importance as an oil producer.

"Canada's economy is in much better shape than the US," said Ian Shepherdson of New York-based High Frequency Economics. "The Canadian dollar is now a petro-currency", he added, referring to rising output from the bitumen-like oilsands in north-east Alberta.

I have been reading your blog from just after the debut and this is my first post. Just wanted to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed the content and am in agreement on many of your posts.

Also, I have started my own blog that is dedicated to profiting off of the implosion we are all witnessing. I am putting a small portion of my savings into a "Housing Hedge Fund" to try and stop the blood loss as the Fed destroys the dollar; and attempt to make some gains off of the excesses of Wall Street. You can check it out at:http://housinghedgefund.blogspot.com/

China Construction Bank (0939), the mainland's largest property lender, said it is exercising caution by reducing its exposure to an overheated property market amid widespread rumors Beijing will implement further measures to curb surging property prices.

CCB chairman Guo Shuqing told the Financial Times that based on the bank's assessment of the macro China economy and risk expectation adjustments, the bank has raised its impairment provision to cover non-performing loans to 90.67 percent.

The mainland's soaring property market is expected to be Beijing's next target in controlling surges in asset prices. Rumors suggest the government plans to increase the down payment required for people buying second homes to 40 percent from 30 percent "very soon."

A lawsuit filed against Wachovia Corp.'s mortgage unit and World Savings Bank alleges the bank was less than honest in explaining its option-adjustable-rate mortgages to consumers.

That "campaign of deceptive conduct and concealment" led customers to lose their homes through foreclosure, contends the suit, which is seeking class-action status. It was filed Aug. 30 in federal court in California.

Who's going to buy all the bad debt? Answer: No one. And, since there is so much of it out there, this is much worse for banks and financial houses than we can imagine. Therefore, the economy of most of the world is virtually "frozen". Right now, we are coasting on fumes, and the real effects will start being felt on the average consumer at the latest by Christmas.

Some analysts fear that the Fed's rate cut (or cuts) won't have the desired effects on the economy, especially on housing.

"It's now getting to work in REVERSE," said Windham Financial's Mendelsohn. " Asians are staying away from Treasurys with the dollar falling and commodity prices rising, [and] 10-year yields are going to rise. IT'S GOING TO MAKE THE HOUSING MARKET WORSE."

Good morning renters. Everyone have a good weekend? I was at my cabin, did a little fishing, boating, the usual stuff. Lake packed as usual with boats. Traffic thick as usual with people coming back Sunday night.

Saturday afternoon I got talking to my cabin neighbors. Guess what the topic was? Housing "crash"? Gold? The dollar? No, it was the LSU/SC game, which actually turned out to be not as great as I had hoped.

You see renters, out in the real world, nobody cares about you. People lead lives. They go to work, they go to their cabins, they watch college football, they BBQ. They don't spend 12 hrs a day blogging about imaginary 9/11 conspiracies and imaginary 90% off sales in housing.

You all go on believing your fantasies. I'll just stick to enjoying life myself.

I couldn't believe it this morning! I got an email from the Nigerian currency scam artists.That con is sooooo old its a wonder that the originals aren't winding up on Antiques Roadshow! Other scams are also on the uptick!I guess you stick with what works, however. All the stupid and desperate FB's in the U.S. will probably grasp on anything at this point! We will probably see these scams come back with a vengeance!

You imbecile renter! If you would live anywhere near Miami you would know that these particular condos are in a crack infested, shitty motel neighborhood where pimps are runnin' their hoes. I wouldn't pay damn $25k for one of them. Soon you will read news stories of people growing pot and making meth there. You'll get robbed the second you leave the building.

But of course a renter with an IQ below 70 would not know this. So spare me your comments and go back into your shithole 1BR rental crap shack.

This is why my neighbors talk about college football. Real estate is crashing only in your pathetic little renter minds.

UPSTATE NY:

Meanwhile, prices continued rising, with the median price hitting $202,100, the second month in a row that the median for the 11-county region was more than $200,000, according to the Greater Capital Association of Realtors. The median price rose 4 percent compared to August 2006.

The average sale price in August was $238,961, a 5 percent increase.

FIRE ISLAND:

Five years ago, the median price for Fire Island houses was a little more than $370,000, but when bidding wars started raging three years ago, prices shot up. When a four-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath inland home in Ocean Beach sold for $950,000, “mouths dropped when they heard the price,” Ms. Smith said. Now new construction inland in Ocean Beach is selling routinely for more than $1 million. Median prices across the island have risen to $710,000, according to Comps Inc., a Glen Cove firm that tracks real estate transactions.

But the housing market is crashing. Sure thing renters, keep living in your own little world.

You imbecile renter! If you would live anywhere near Miami you would know that these particular condos are in a crack infested, shitty motel neighborhood where pimps are runnin' their hoes. I wouldn't pay damn $25k for one of them. Soon you will read news stories of people growing pot and making meth there. You'll get robbed the second you leave the building.

Umm, you just described ALL of Miami.

But of course a renter with an IQ below 70 would not know this. So spare me your comments and go back into your shithole 1BR rental crap shack.

And you go back to your interest-only, negative amortization double-wide trailer next to the train tracks.

Having been in residentual construction for 20 years (Self employed)I watched the real estate market march up and down. I warned every person I knew not to by a 2 doller 2by4 for 6 dollers. I became chicken little and doom and gloom. They all trashed me behind my back. They now are beginning to see whats comming. They dont call me any more. Hey, going to the lake guys, good luck selling your leveraged truck load of lumber for 30 cents on the doller. Everyones a real estate expert.

You imbecile renter! If you would live anywhere near Miami you would know that these particular condos are in a crack infested, shitty motel neighborhood where pimps are runnin' their hoes. I wouldn't pay damn $25k for one of them. Soon you will read news stories of people growing pot and making meth there. You'll get robbed the second you leave the building.

But of course a renter with an IQ below 70 would not know this. So spare me your comments and go back into your shithole 1BR rental crap shack.

Yeah simpleton with the vacant stare, I mean you!___________________________________

I don't rent, I own.

Unlike you who bought into the bubble and will be paying on a depreciating asset I bought my place for .90 cents a square foot.

How do you like paying 400 a square foot only do see your "investment" fall to 200 a sqaure foot in 3 months.

Bought in 2004 and trying to sell now. SUCKS! Housing has burst! Got an offer 50k off what I paid and no others in a year. This sucks big time. AAARRGH! Those other people who call renters must be really stupid, bought before I was out of highschool, or just not trying to sell their cabins. I sure hope they don't have second mortgages not at a fixed rate or soon they will be up the creek, like me trying to sell. Ah well, at least I didn't by a second home, McMansion, or have a second mortgage. =)

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) profit could be hit by up to 1.7 billion euros ($2.4 billion) due to loans that have dwindled in value as a result of the credit market crisis, sources familiar with the situation said.

Chief Executive Josef Ackermann last week acknowledged the bank was heading for a rocky third quarter, flagging an upcoming revaluation of 29 billion euros of credit it had promised to clients.

Deutsche would normally farm these loans out to other banks, but it has become harder to sell on such debt in the wake of a credit squeeze that began with a wave of mortgage defaults in the U.S., and the bank now faces having to write down the value of these loans to reflect this.

One source familiar with the situation said the bank estimates that the credit is now worth between 4 and 6 percent less than face value.

That would hit profit by up to 1.7 billion euros booked in the third quarter. In the same period a year ago, Deutsche made a net profit of 1.2 billion.

Deutsche, one of the world's biggest M&A banks, is now trying to get clients to renegotiate credit terms or drop deals to shrink the size of the fallout. The loss could also shrink if credit market conditions improve.

The dollar failed to rally Monday, dropping to a new record low against the euro and a 15-year low against five other major currencies as investors continued to act on last week's larger-than-expected interest rate cut and economic data on August consumer spending and home sales expected this week.

The 13-nation euro rose as high as $1.4130 Monday, its highest level since its debut in 1999, before drifting back to $1.4087 in late New York trading. That compared with a previous peak of $1.4119 on Friday, and the $1.4083 it bought in New York late that day. In other trading Monday, the British pound edged higher to $2.0214 from $2.0200.

This change, which the Bush administration opposed in the summer, is portrayed as a way to inject liquidity into the stretched mortgage market.

Paulson said the change involving jumbo loans could occur only in tandem with tighter oversight of the two government-sponsored mortgage companies, according to a person familiar with the secretary's testimony prepared for a House hearing Thursday.

The Bank of Japan's Board of Governors has not altered its position for the immediate future and intends to raise interest rates gradually, according to the board's monthly minutes for August 22-23 released on Tuesday.

The board confirmed that Japan's economy remained likely to follow a path of growth and stable prices, so the bank “continues to plan on adjusting the level of interest rates gradually in accordance with improvements in the economic and price situation,” according to the report.

Three classes of notes (and two classes of loan interests) issued by Westways Funding X Ltd., a mortgage market value collateralized debt obligation, have been downgraded by Fitch Ratings.

The downgraded notes were as follows: class C, from A to CCC; class D, from BB-minus to C/DR5; and income notes, from CCC to C/DR6. In addition, the class LC loan interests have been downgraded from A to CCC, and the class LD loan interests have been downgraded from BB-minus to C/DR5.

"Losses incurred during the liquidation process have increased the risk that the class C and LC notes may not be paid in full," Fitch said. "It is likely that class D and LD will incur a significant loss and class income notes will suffer a complete loss.

Rating agency Moody’s is changing the way it rates complex debt products backed by US subprime mortgage bonds to reflect mounting losses in the stricken market.

The changes come as the major rating agencies have come under fire for granting high ratings to such complex mortgage securitisations, amid signs of looser lending standards and slowing house price appreciation.

These so-called collateralised debt obligations have suffered precipitous drops in market value and downgrades to several notches below their initial ratings as late payments and defaults on the underlying mortgages have exceeded the agencies’ initial expectations.

Moody’s has responded by making its rating model more conservative to reflect these higher losses. The rating agency has also broadened its definition of subprime mortgages to include other less risky mortgages previously classified by the rating agency as “midprime” – meaning that such mortgages will be subject to higher loss expectations than previously.

The changes are the latest in a string of updates to CDO rating models by Moody’s and rivals Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, as subprime mortgage losses have continued to accelerate for home loans originated in 2005 and 2006.

Moody’s said the pattern of deterioration was evident in all three major mortgage markets – subprime, Alt-A and prime – though late payments and defaults are considerably lower on slightly less risky Alt-A mortgages than on subprime, and even lower on prime.

The agency said late payment and default rates had also been progressively higher for securitisations originated in consecutive quarters. It said this was “an indication losses on the most recent securitisations are likely to continue growing in the near-term compared with earlier securitisations”.

Defaults for subprime home loans that originated in the last quarter of 2006, at 3.54 per cent, were nearly four times the average between the first quarter of 2002 and the second quarter of 2005, Moody’s said. Defaults on Alt-A mortgages increased by a factor of five, although they were still less than a third of the subprime default rate.

DBS Group Holdings, one of the largest financial services groups in Asia, announced yesterday that vice chairman and chief executive Jackson Tai is resigning, but stressed his decision has nothing to do with the bank's exposure to collateralized debt obligations.

Last month, DBS surprised investors when it said it had S$2.4 billion (HK$12.4 billion) of exposure to CDOs, nearly double the S$1.3 billion exposure it initially disclosed during the US subprime-mortgage meltdown.

Fitch Ratings expects one in five of the managers of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) it reviews to run into serious trouble in the next year if the downturn in the CDO market continues.

As for managers that focus specifically on asset-backed CDOs, an even higher 40 percent could have financial troubles or reach the point where they no longer have the wherewithal or the resources to competently manage CDOs, said Vincent Matsui, a New York City-based analyst, in a phone interview.

"The impairment of a CDO manager can cost the CDO investors both time and money," Fitch analysts wrote in a report. "Market value CDOs that rely on the manager's active trading and market acumen will suffer the most if the manager is suffering."

CDOs are created by assembling a portfolio of credit risks and dividing it into tranches. At the bottom, the riskiest tranche is exposed to the first few percent of losses from any credit in the portfolio. Subsequent tranches have lower degrees of risk.

Banks had used CDOs to help sell off billions of dollars of securities backed by U.S. subprime mortgages. When subprime defaults rose, some holders of CDO tranches had to sell for as little as 50 cents on the dollar, and investors lost confidence in CDOs as an asset class.

Fitch rates 140 CDO managers on a scale of 1 to 5, with impairment starting at level 4. No one knows the total number of CDO managers, which could be two or three times as many, Matsui said.