Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.

Logically and TA-based, yes, but how about the fuh-damentals?Was there a model in Jan 2013 indicating that in April 2013 the price would be 1800% higher?Absolutely not, yet it happened.

Where is your "leap of faith", HM? Toxic2400 also drew something that might happen, plus or minus.

Personally, I am a bit bored about all models that draw neat bowl like movements projecting into 2023.Where is the fury of the exponent of the adoption stick?

In 2013 there was very little historic precedent to draw on. The market was naive and raw. Adoption and interest has increased exponentially since then, and the market has become much more deep and liquid. The intense volatility seen in the infancy of the market will slowly smooth out. That is another reason for the wave cycles ( bear/bull markets) getting longer.

Behaviour now conforms more closely to TA standards. In fact, I would argue that crypto is now entering a stage of early maturity which can be compared to stock markets in the early 20th century, before the modern era of manipulation/overly complex reflexivity. Therefore TA would be expected to work best in the crypto era we are entering.

Serial swindler, Dan Larimer, who conned his way into becoming a Blockchain Billionaire, was awarded the Guinness World Record on Thursday for most crypto exit scams. Larimer, who is best known for his role in creating popular hit scams such as Bitshares, Steem, and EOS received the award after brilliantly exit scamming EOS in October and announcing plans for creating his fourth new shitcoin.

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The genius behind Larimer’s work is his finesse. He tells everyone he’s not quitting and then…he quits!”

Trump seems like the kinda guy who would ask for extra salt for his french fries, and then still be somehow perfectly healthy. I mean besides the gut and the weird hair... He'll probably live to be 89.

blocksize increase would not have stopped the stupid ass forks.. unless it were to break bitcoin, which was part of their goal to change bitcoin's governance and make bitcoin easier to change.....

Again with the delusion. One of the major 'features' in The SegWit Omnibus Changeset was for the sole stated purpose of making Bitcoin easier to change in the future.

jbreher..

What is your actual point? Seriously...can you dumb it down for all us plebs and just state what the problems are and how you would fix them. In simple non technical terms so we can all follow along at home.

Sure. Though you've branched from a twig of this thread that is kind of peripheral, I will swerve back to the big hitter.

Problem: As blocks become persistently full, tx fees required skyrocket, average settlement time skyrockets, many use cases become uneconomic, and Lightning fundamentally breaks - due to inability to make economic channel opens and closes, inability to get stale-channel-state-theft repudiation txs included in a timely manner to prevent the theft, LN txs that require out-of-channel execution becomes a larger percentage of the total, etc.

Solution: Avoid persistently full blocks.

How?: The Coreian solution seems to be to drive demand out of the system by reducing usability. I do not buy into that as any sort of a solution at all. One does not grow a system by limiting the things for which it is useful. The solution I advocate is so simple it almost does not require stating. It is the solution 'everyone in Bitcoin circa 2012' knew was the obvious direction to go in. Simply increase the block size to accommodate the demand upon the system. This would return Bitcoin to the economic model it held from inception until insanity.

If I had a magic wand, I would roll back The SegWit Omnibus Changeset. But that ship has sailed. For worse.

I've got a lot of other points, but that's probably the top line item.

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Thank you.

You're welcome.

Wow!.. That's your solution? Bigger Blocks?

I don't understand some people's way of thinking. We are living in an era where almost anything is possible, we just need to be able to imagine it.

Let me dumb it down here...

How do we fix a traffic congestion. I know, let's build/add more lanes on the freeway. that will solve the issue, Right?. Where do we stop? 10 lanes, 100 lanes , 1000 lanes?

Can you see a problem? Eventually your solution will be obsolete, eventually the traffic congestions will surface. Not only that, what about the towns and cities that may be around the freeway when it was just 2 lanes, you would have to demolish the towns and buildings to build these new lanes, eventually you won't have any towns and city to use the freeway with 100 lanes.

Not only that, what if the land is not suitable for your extra lanes. Ie, mountains/rivers/lakes etc.

The solution is not simple, it would have to involve a multi point attack. We could implement, high speed rail to move people around faster, we could use other transport methods, increase Bus or Multi-Passenger vecihles to reduce the amount of cars using the freeway. We can even think outside the box, change peoples driving and transport habit, work from home in the first 2 hours. Leave work later etc etc.

Now back to Bitcoin, does this sound familiar, now can you relate to what the developers are trying to archive? Layer 2? LN?

If you think Bitcoin is crippled because of small block size, then you are still thinking inside the box, and do not have the capacity to understand the full ramifications of larger and larger block size, let alone the importance of a smaller block size. Again, this is only one aspect of Bitcoin.

The other night, I came home and the front light was out. I found my keys, but was struggling to see in the dark, took a tad bit longer to get the front door open, then I thought to myself, wouldn't it be awesome if I had one of those proximity cards, like I do at work, and be able to just swipe my wallet and get inside. So in other words, my house is CRIPPLED and I should move out to my Office/Work. Again, the front door lock is just one aspect of my house.

"One does not grow a system by limiting the things for which it is useful." <- That doesn't apply to Bitcoin, data shows Bitcoin usage has grown year on year. Never have been limiting Bitcoin, infact, we are finding ways to push the boundary of it "usefulness"

The biggest problem you have with your mindset is that you are only thinking about what is here now and not what could be here in the next 5/10/15 years. The Bitcoin developers, not only have to think about block size, they have to think about the whole of BITCOIN. Do not ever say they deliberately crippled Bitcoin, because that is an insult!

In a recent turn of events, Peter Todd, a former Bitcoin Core developer and cryptography consultant, filed a defamation case against ‘isis agora lovecruft’, who had earlier accused him of rape and sexual assault.

I don't understand some people's way of thinking. We are living in an era where almost anything is possible, we just need to be able to imagine it.

Let me dumb it down here...

How do we fix a traffic congestion. I know, let's build/add more lanes on the freeway. that will solve the issue, Right?. Where do we stop? 10 lanes, 100 lanes , 1000 lanes?

Can you see a problem? Eventually your solution will be obsolete, eventually the traffic congestions will surface. Not only that, what about the towns and cities that may be around the freeway when it was just 2 lanes, you would have to demolish the towns and buildings to build these new lanes, eventually you won't have any towns and city to use the freeway with 100 lanes.

Not only that, what if the land is not suitable for your extra lanes. Ie, mountains/rivers/lakes etc.

The solution is not simple, it would have to involve a multi point attack. We could implement, high speed rail to move people around faster, we could use other transport methods, increase Bus or Multi-Passenger vecihles to reduce the amount of cars using the freeway. We can even think outside the box, change peoples driving and transport habit, work from home in the first 2 hours. Leave work later etc etc.

Now back to Bitcoin, does this sound familiar, now can you relate to what the developers are trying to archive? Layer 2? LN?

If you think Bitcoin is crippled because of small block size, then you are still thinking inside the box, and do not have the capacity to understand the full ramifications of larger and larger block size, let alone the importance of a smaller block size. Again, this is only one aspect of Bitcoin.

The other night, I came home and the front light was out. I found my keys, but was struggling to see in the dark, took a tad bit longer to get the front door open, then I thought to myself, wouldn't it be awesome if I had one of those proximity cards, like I do at work, and be able to just swipe my wallet and get inside. So in other words, my house is CRIPPLED and I should move out to my Office/Work. Again, the front door lock is just one aspect of my house.

"One does not grow a system by limiting the things for which it is useful." <- That doesn't apply to Bitcoin, data shows Bitcoin usage has grown year on year. Never have been limiting Bitcoin, infact, we are finding ways to push the boundary of it "usefulness"

The biggest problem you have with your mindset is that you are only thinking about what is here now and not what could be here in the next 5/10/15 years. The Bitcoin developers, not only have to think about block size, they have to think about the whole of BITCOIN. Do not ever say they deliberately crippled Bitcoin, because that is an insult!

This is all great and all, but you might as well be talking to a wall.