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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GEORGES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
...GEORGES STILL BATTERING HISPANIOLA...THREATENS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS
MORNING.
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS OVER HAITI ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE WATERS OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN A FEW HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
IT IS ASSUMED THAT GEORGES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS PARTICULARLY
OVER ELEVATED AREAS. HOWEVER...GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN
WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. THIS
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GEORGES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
LAWRENCE
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