Nothing is decided and may not be for months, but Republican leaders are leaning toward scheduling the presidential primary for Thursday, March 1st, Friday, March 2nd or Saturday, March 3rd, 2012. That would make it the fifth nominating contest ... "I think that's where it will end up,'' Gov. Rick Scott said, referring to those first few days in March ...

Under rules set by both national parties, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are the only states allowed to hold primaries or caucuses in February and no other state can hold a nominating election prior to March 6, which is likely to be a "Super Tuesday" with multiple contests.

"If we do it on that Thursday (March 1) or that Saturday (March 3), that would show respect for the RNC rules and those first four historic or semi-historic early states and also ... allow us to go before other states because Florida is that important,'' said Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, hopeful that the RNC will cut Florida some slack ...

Plenty of factors could push Florida's primary earlier than March, including other states setting early primaries. Several, including Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Wyoming, have been looking at that option.

The idea of an early March primary date has been floating around in Florida for months. The problem is that voting on March 1 is a violation of RNC rules in the same way that voting on Jan. 31 is. But some Florida Republicans — like Haridopolos — hope that they'll win leniency for their delegates at the 2012 convention by only flouting the primary calendar by a few days.

As Smith notes, the calculus for all of this changes if a parade of other would-be early primary states starts moving forward.