The sitting Vice President, even after two terms in the shadow of his
popular boss, still seems stiff, distant and formal, while ethical
questions from the past continue to cloud his image.

The charming challenger, meanwhile, represents a fiercely competitive
political dynasty. Skeptics suggest that his candidacy depends entirely
on the political clout and financial connections of his famous father,
and they whisper about his alleged playboy past.

Religion may play an unpredictable role in shaping the outcome since
the challenger has become connected in the public mind with a
controversial but powerful religious minority. Voters who worry about
theological interference in politics may turn against him, but there's
also the possibility that he'll enjoy a net gain by rallying the troops
within his own faith community.

No wonder that political junkies savor every moment of the thrilling
electoral duel of ….1960. That Nixon-Kennedy race represented a watershed
in Presidential politics, and its eerie resemblance to the Bush-Gore race
in the year 2000 contains several crucial lessons.

Of course, key differences may prove every bit as influential as the
many similarities. Forty years ago, the incumbent president, Dwight
Eisenhower, frustrated Republican managers with his obvious reluctance to
use his personal popularity in behalf of his struggling heir apparent,
Dick Nixon. By contrast, it's reasonable to expect Bill Clinton to do
everything in his considerable power to install his loyal protégé as his
successor.

Also counting in the Democrats' favor is the stark contrasts in public
perceptions of the intelligence level of John F. Kennedy and George W.
Bush. While both men boast impeccable Ivy League credentials (Bush, like
Kennedy, holds a Harvard degree-- plus a Yale BA for good measure) not
even the most devoted fans of the Texas governor would describe him as an
intellectual. There is also the war hero factor-Kennedy captivated
Americans with tales of PT 109, while W.'s honorable but uneventful
experience with the Texas Air National Guard seems significantly less
compelling.

Nevertheless, it's instructive to recall that even with his impressive
resume, Senator Kennedy in 1960 inspired countless questions about his
preparation for the presidency--- so much so that Nixon based his entire
campaign on the slogan "Experience Counts." Without the perspective of
the Cuban Missile Crisis and other dramatic events of his eventual
Presidency, the 43-year-old candidate seemed considerably less seasoned
than his 47-year old rival, who had already debated Soviet dictator
Nikita Khruschev and met frequently with world leaders.

Other aspects of the 1960 race suggest that Al Gore should hesitate
before selecting new drapes for the Oval Office. Forty years ago,
informed opinion suggested that the first-ever televised debates would
provide a crucial advantage for the tough, seasoned Nixon-just as most
observers now expect Gore to embarrass the notoriously tongue-tied
Governor Bush. Indeed, people who listened to the Kennedy Nixon debates
on radio selected Nixon as the winner by a nearly two-to-one margin, but
TV gave Kennedy an overwhelming boost for the simple reason that he came
across more sympathetically on the tube than his sweating, earnest
opponent. It is certainly possible that the telegenic, wry Governor of
Texas might enjoy similar advantages over the hard-hitting but ham-handed
Mr. Gore.

The religious factor in the race might also prove complex and
unpredictable, as in 1960. Forty years ago, Democratic managers worried
that Senator Kennedy's bid to become the first Catholic president might
draw angry opposition from millions who feared Vatican influence on
politics. By the end of the campaign, however, Catholic solidarity behind
Senator Kennedy far outweighed anti-Catholic votes against him. By the
same token, Governor Bush will work to overturn conventional wisdom by
turning his Evangelical associations into a net plus through his appeal
to Christian conservatives -a community, by the way, that represents
nearly the same percentage of Americans (25%) as Roman Catholics in 1960.

Support from this religious group could help Bush maintain another key
structural edge reminiscent of 1960--- control of the "Solid South." In
an era in which Republicans could scarcely compete in most Southern
states, JFK swept to victory in all states of the old Confederacy except
Florida, Virginia and Tennessee-giving him nearly one third of the
electoral votes he needed for victory.

To solidify this regional base and
to unite his party, Kennedy reluctantly asked his chief rival for the
nomination, Lyndon Johnson, to join his ticket-- despite the fact that he
frankly despised the man. Following that precedent would argue for a
Bush-McCain ticket-regardless of lingering personal resentment between
the two men. . Whatever the choice of running mates, the 2000 campaign
promises another recollection of 1960-as a wide open race and see-saw
battle likely to remain unresolved until election day.

In 1960, this
excitement helped drive voting turnout to record levels-and a
breathtakingly thin margin of Kennedy victory that amounted to less than
three tenths of one percent. In the upcoming millenium campaign, we can
hope for comparably intense competition and surging participation from an
engaged
electorate.

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