The Paul LePage meltdown

Since June, the Maine Republican has sparked outrage over a crude sexual comment he made about an opponent; remarked — jokingly, he said later — that he wanted to blow up a newspaper, and, according to a Maine media report this week that he denied, told a roomful of Republicans recently that President Barack Obama “hates white people.”

The Paul LePage meltdown

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“If you poll Maine people and describe the policies he’s advocating, I think his rating’s around 60 percent, if not higher,” said former Republican state senator and political commentator Philip Harriman. “When you put his name beside the policy, he loses about 40 percent of that. I think he’s on the right track, but he has the propensity to create self-inflicted injury.”

The GOP governor was first elected in 2010, winning a seven-way primary with tea party support. Even his critics acknowledge his impressive personal story: LePage, the oldest of 18 children, left a violent household at the age of 11. He was homeless for a time before making his way through college and the business community to a seat as mayor of Waterville, Maine. He ultimately arrived at the governor’s mansion, where he has railed against spending and promoted tax cuts.

But LePage’s a lengthy and colorful history of gaffes is now threatening his political career. He once said NAACP leaders could “kiss my butt” if they didn’t accept that he had to miss an event and, “If they want to play the race card, come to dinner; my [Jamaican-born] son will talk to them.” Another time, he likened the IRS to the Gestapo, sparking outrage. He later said, “What I am trying to say is the Holocaust was a horrific crime against humanity and, frankly, I would never want to see that repeated. Maybe the IRS is not quite as bad — yet.”

When asked Tuesday whether he made that statement, LePage told reporters, “No, I never said that, and you guys are all about gossip.” But that didn’t stop the media reports or stem the skepticism, including among some Republican sources.

Republicans nationally control 30 of the 50 governorships and many of the incumbents up next year look to have strong paths to reelection. Not so for LePage. Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine) threw his hat into the governor’s race earlier this month, and Eliot Cutler, an independent who narrowly lost to LePage in 2010, is running again.

“Aside from his own personal implosions, the big linchpin is whether this remains a three-person race,” said a senior Maine Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity. “There’s a very strong Democrat in the race. … If the independent exits the race, there’s almost no chance [LePage] gets reelected. If that takes shape, I think you see him reconsidering running at all or at least getting a substantial primary challenge.”

Maine observers note that it’s still too early to know, however, how those dynamics play out, though a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association told POLITICO that “a vote for Eliot Cutler is a vote for LePage,” offering a look at one line of messaging against the independent.

The Republican source also pointed to occasions in which the governor suggested he might not seek reelection, though he has since indicated interest.

“I think there’s a bigger question now about whether he’ll even stay in the race,” the source said. “Among the pundit class up here, there’s a lot of chatter about that. As you can see, he’s an erratic personality.”

Brent Littlefield, a political strategist for LePage, expressed optimism about the race, alluding to internal polls, though he declined to provide any figures to POLITICO, saying he never shares such numbers.