Synopsis

When children begin to disappear in the town of Derry, Maine, a group of young kids are faced with their biggest fears when they square off against an evil clown named Pennywise, whose history of murder and violence dates back for centuries.

Usually this is a terrible time of year on the home market, because it is too late for the summer blockbusters, but too early for the holiday hits. However, the home market is terrible this week, because It comes out and it destroyed records at the box office and is scaring away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, its reviews were very good, so it is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its main competition are two classics, Inherit the Wind and Young Mr. Lincoln. All three are worth picking up, but I’m giving the title to It, because of its wider appeal.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle returned to top spot with $48.7 million in 61 markets for totals of $250.3 million internationally and $344.9 million worldwide. Nearly all of the film’s weekend haul came from China, where the movie earned $39.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $39.83 million. This is almost double what the original opened with in this market, meaning Kingsman: The Golden Circle could top the original’s international numbers making a third film in the franchise almost a sure thing.
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Never Say Die remained in first place on the international chart with $30 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $281 million. Almost all of that has come from China, where it made $29.74 million this weekend for a total of $278.99 million. By the end of the weekend, it was less than $1 million away from overtaking Meet the Fockers as the biggest Comedy hit in any one single market. It got there on Monday.
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Happy Death Day led the weekend, as expected, but did so with a surprisingly strong $26.04 million. The only other truly wide release of the week was The Foreigner, which also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. The overall box office still fell from last weekend, down 4.2% to $100 million. This is 1.4% higher than the same weekend last year. On the one hand, this is not enough to compensate for inflation. On the other hand, at this point, any win is worth celebrating. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016 by a large margin, but at least it was able to close the gap by a little bit at $410 million / 4.7% at $8.34 billion to $8.75 billion.
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I thought this would be a really busy weekend with Blade Runner 2049 repeating in first place and four wide releases competing for spots in the top five. However, last weekend, Blade Runner 2049 missed expectations, so it won’t dominate the chart this weekend. Meanwhile, two of the four wide releases are not going to open truly wide. This leaves Happy Death Day with a relatively easy path to first place. The Foreigner has almost made enough in China to pay for its production budget, so as long as it can cover its advertising budget here, it will break even before it reaches the home market. Meanwhile, Professor Marston & The Wonder Women is opening semi-wide and Marshall is opening nationwide. They may or may not open in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Accountant opened in first place with close to $25 million, while all three wide releases combined made $38 million. It is going to be tough for 2017 to match that.
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Never Say Die rose to first place with $67 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $223 internationally. The film added $66.28 million to its running tally in its native China, which now sits at $222.75 million after nine days of release. The film is on track to top Kung Fu Yoga as the biggest comedy hit in China. In fact, it is on pace to top Meet the Fockers as the biggest Comedy hit in any one single market.
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October started on a soft note with none of the new releases meeting expectations over the weekend. Blade Runner 2049 led the way with $32.75 million, which would have been fine, had the movie not cost $155 million to make. (That’s $185 million on the screen, $155 million cost for the studio, after you take into account tax breaks, etc.) Neither The Mountain Between Us, nor My Little Pony: The Movie made much of an impact at the box office, but at least neither of them bombed. The biggest news was It hitting $300 million. Overall, the box office did climb compared to last weekend, growing 16% to $105 million. This is just 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2017 is 5.1% or $440 million behind 2016 at $8.19 billion to $8.64 billion. We really needed a big win this weekend to put a dent in that number. Unless November and December are really big months, 2017 has already lost the year-over-year competition.
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After It smashed the September weekend record a month ago, further proving that films can open huge at any time of the year, prospects looked great for the long-awaited sequel to Blade Runner. Its trailers had created positive buzz, the early reviews were very favorable, and there was little by way of competition. The bar it needed to cross to break the record, Gravity’s $55.8 million wasn’t even all that high. But something went wrong on the way to the multiplex.
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I was bullish about Blade Runner 2049’s chances for a number of reasons. It was setting October records for pre-sales on a number of sites. Its reviews were over 90% positive. Its previews were a little stronger than expected, so everything was looking up. Then Friday happened. The film only pulled in $12.7 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. This is not a case of critics loved it, but the audiences didn’t, as it scored an A minus from CinemaScore. Perhaps not enough of the target audience even remembers the original Blade Runner and that’s why this movie is struggling. A lot of people thought it had a shot at $50 million this weekend but now $35 million is likely out of reach. $33 million is more likely at this point.
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September ended on a slow note, but it looks like October will open fast. Blade Runner 2049 has been setting October pre-order records for a few sites, but it will also need strong walk-up sales in order to actually break the October weekend record, currently held by Gravity, with $55 million. I don’t think that’s likely, but at this point I would be shocked if it didn’t land in the top ten weekends for the month. The Mountain Between Us looks more and more like busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews have fallen from just over 70% positive to under 50% positive. As I started writing this, My Little Pony: The Movie still had no reviews, which is almost worse than bad reviews. (Reviews are starting to trickle in.) Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding. It isn’t expanding wide, or even semi-wide; however, it should still earn a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million. Blade Runner 2049 could earn twice that. If 2017 does win in the year-over-year comparison, then it will be on the back of Blade Runner 2049.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle remained in first place on the international chart with $50.5 million in 77 markets for totals of $125.97 million internationally and $192.61 million worldwide. The film dominated the South Korean market with $11.89 million on 1,677 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.49 million there. It also debuted in first place in Mexico, with a less impressive $2.28 million. The film has yet to open in France, China, and Japan, so it should continue to rake in the money.
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The top three films on the weekend box office chart landed in the same order as predicted; however, it was a much closer race than most thought it would be. Kingsman: The Golden Circle ended up on top with $16.94 million, just ahead of It with $16.90 million. The best new release of the week was American Made with $16.78 million. The other new releases struggled, to be kind, with Flatliners earning a distant fifth place and Til Death Do Us Part opening in ninth place. Overall, the box office fell 23% from last weekend to just $90 million. It was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2017’s mini-winning streak. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $8.06 billion, putting it 4.8% or $410 million behind last year’s pace.
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Warner Bros. is claiming a weekend win at the box office for It as of this morning, but whichever way you slice it, we have a threeway tie at the top of the chart, based on Sunday morning estimates. In fact, we might have a rare weekend where three different movies will top the daily chart. American Madetook a lead on Friday with a $6.17 million opening day, It won on Saturday with around $7.9 million, and the eventual result for the weekend will depend on whether Kingsman: The Golden Circle wins on Sunday, and by how much. As of this morning, Kingsman is projected to make $17 million, American Made $17.02 million, and It (a slightly optimistic, for my money) $17.3 million. We’ll know the real winner on Monday morning, and It probably has a slight edge.
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American Made topped the box office chart on Friday with $6.1 million. This is a little better than predicted and certainly better than previews were suggesting it would make. Its 85% positive reviews should result in long legs. On the other hand, its B plus from CinemaScore is the definition of average. It could grab first place with just over $16 million, but it is not the only film on pace to earn that much this weekend.
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It looks like September will end with a whimper, as there are three wide releases, none of which are expected to be midlevel hits. American Made should have no trouble being the biggest of the three new releases, but it has a less than 50/50 chance of earning first place. Flatliners’ buzz started out quiet and it failed to grow by any significant margin. It looks like it will open below $10 million. Finally there’s Til Death Do Us Part, which may or may not manage a spot in the top ten. 2017’s mini-winning streak looks to be over, as this weekend last year had two films earning more than $20 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon. This year, there will likely be none.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle made its international debut and it was mostly really good news, as it topped the chart with $61.18 million on 11,623 screens in 64 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $11.40 million on 602 screens. This is a massive improvement over the $6.4 million its predecessor opened with. Likewise, this film earned $6.01 million on 1300 screens in Russia, up from $3.5 million for the first film. It wasn’t able to grow that much in Australia, but it did increase its haul to $4.56 million on 405 screens, up from $3.22 million on 372 for the original film. The film has yet to open in France, South Korea, China, and Japan, so this is a great start. It very likely won’t have the same legs, but even so, $400 million worldwide is a solid milestone to aim for, given this start.
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The weekend box office was good, for a September weekend, but disappointing compared to expectations. Kingsman: The Golden Circle did earn first place, but with only $39.02 million. Granted, this is great for September, but $10 million less than our prediction, and our prediction wasn’t even on the high end of expectations. The Lego Ninjago Movie struggled in third place with $20.43 million. The shine has come off the Lego franchise. Fortunately, It continues to be strong and that helped the overall box office. We saw 5.6% growth from last weekend reaching $117 million. This is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year, so there’s clearly reason to celebrate. 2017 is still behind 2016 in the year-to-date comparison, but it closed the gap to 4.7% or $390 million at $7.94 billion to $8.33 billion.
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The fine line between mere popularity and capturing the zeitgeist (or going viral, to use a slightly more up-to-date term) is shown in this weekend’s box office results. Kingsman: The Golden Circle, a decently-reviewed sequel to a very popular franchise-starter, will pick up a very respectable $39 million this weekend. That’s a shade better than the original film made on its opening weekend, and a pretty satisfying result for all concerned. With good business expected overseas (we don’t have an official estimate yet), the film should cruise to profitability overall, and will most likely top $100 million domestically. It would also have counted as the fourth-best opening weekend in September, were it not for the behemoth zeitgeist-capturer, It.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened on the low end of expectations with $15.33 million on Friday. This puts it on pace for just under $40 million over the full weekend. This is a little more than the $36.21 million the original managed back in 2015. This film has earned weakerreviews, but both films earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Still sequels tend to have shorter legs, so getting much past $100 million domestically will be difficult. This is not good news for a film that cost $104 million to make. I don’t think there will be a third film in the franchise, not unless it shows some growth internationally.
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As expected, Kingsman: The Golden Circle had the best previews, earning $3.4 million last night. The original film opened with $1.4 million during its previews; however, this is not a good predictor for two reasons. Firstly, that was two years ago, which is a lifetime ago in terms of previews. Secondly, it was at a different time of year and previews are very dependent on time of year. Perhaps a closer comparison would be The Magnificent Seven, as that film earned $1.75 million this weekend last year, on the way to $67 million. However, Kingsman: The Golden Circle earned weakerreviews and it has a younger target audience, so it will likely have worse legs. In fact, it could have worse legs than It did, which would leave the film with just $31 million during its opening weekend. I was expecting about $4 million last night, so unless its legs are better, it won’t match its prediction. That said, just over $40 million is still good and if it can merely match its predecessor’s legs, then it will break even sometime during its home market run.
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There are three wide releases coming out this week, which is one more than anticipated. Kingsman: The Golden Circle is widely expected to earn first place during the weekend, but The Lego Ninjago Movie is widely expected to have longer legs and that could give it the win overall. Meanwhile, Friend Request is just hoping to earn a spot in the top five. It’s not a sure bet that it will. Meanwhile, It will relinquish first spot and fall to third place, but still earn a ton of money. This weekend last year, the one-two punch of The Magnificent Seven and Storks helped the overall box office pull in $104 million. The top three films this year should earn more than that, to give 2017 another win. It will still take a lot to recover, but this result at least makes that possible.
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Brad’s Status led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $22,480 in four theaters. It was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,490. The only other member of the $10,000 was Ex Libris: The New York Public Library, which earned $10,926 in one theater over the weekend and $16,308 from Wednesday through Sunday. It won’t expand significantly, because it is a documentary, but the distributor should be very happy with this result.
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It beat expectations again, earning $60.10 million over the weekend, which would have been an amazing opening weekend for a film that cost $35 million to make. American Assassin did okay, given its budget, while mother! struggled. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, which is not surprising, given It’s monster opening last weekend. A decline of 32% is stark, but a weekend haul of $111 million is still great for this time of year. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 won by a 24%, which is fantastic. Year-to-date, 2017 is still way behind by $410 million or 5.0% at $7.79 billion to $8.20 billion. However, 2017 has cut into 2016’s lead by $90 million in just two weeks, so you can’t complain about that.
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It continues to be a powerhouse at the box office this weekend with a second-weekend $60 million expected by Warner Bros., off a very respectable 51% from its opening. Remarkably, that would comfortably have been the best weekend in September, were it not for the film’s $123 million opening last weekend. It’s already the highest-grossing film ever released in September, and should make it easily to $300 domestically.
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As expected, It dominated Friday with $19.2 million. Its running tally is $177.91 million after just 8 days of release, putting it in top spot on the all-time September chart. It looks to be on pace for $57 million over the full weekend, which is even better than expected, giving it a running tally of over $210 million. A 55% decline is excellent in this day and age, especially for a horror film, as the genre tends to have shorter legs. This will make it the 8th film released in 2017 to get to $200 million. It will also become only the fourth horror film to get to $200 million and just the 16th R-Rated film to reach that milestone. Furthermore, while next week’s competition is stronger, it is currently on pace to reach $300 million domestically, which is more than most people originally predicted it would earn worldwide. Perhaps this means we will be getting a big-budget At the Mountains of Madness adaptation after all. Previously, no studios wanted to make a big-budget R-rated horror movie, but this film proves they can be profitable.
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There are two wide releases debuting this week: American Assassin and mother! Neither is expected to match It at the box office. In fact, both combined won’t match It’s sophomore stint. Neither will earn as much in total as It does over just this weekend. This weekend last year, Sully led the way with $21.65 million, while the threenewreleases earned about $26 million combined. It should earn more than those four films earned combined, giving 2017 its second massive win in a row.
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Spider-Man: Homecoming returned to the international top five earning first place with $71.82 million on 21,675 screens in 47 markets for totals of $495.74 million internationally and $823.43 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $69.12 million on 20,440 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $70.63 million. This is already the biggest single market for the film, overtaking South Korea, where it has earned $51.51 million. At this point, the film will have no trouble getting to $900 million worldwide, but $1 billion is out of reach.
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Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have three new features to talk about, one of which is really timely. We recently mentionedmost $100 million movies per year, while this week we announce most $100 million movies per month. This looks at all of the movies that earned more than $100 million, or $200 million, $300 million, etc. and what month of the year they debuted. It should come as no surprise that May, June, and December are at the top. Nor it is a surprise that January, April and September are at the bottom. The biggest surprise on this list is Crocodile Dundee, which is the biggest box office hit ever released in September, for now. No movie that has opened in September has ever earn more than $175 million, for now. Crocodile Dundee wasn’t expected to be a big hit, because it had two mostly unknownleads, hence the September release date. Despite this, it opened in first place, where it remained for two months, and it didn’t fall out of the top ten for nearly six. This is the kind of legs you never see any more. In fact, it is impressive for a film to stay in the top ten for two months and still be in theaters after six. However, all good things must come to an end and Crocodile Dundee is about to be overtaken by It, which is re-writing the September record book. Speaking of breaking records...
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It was the only film to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart this past weekend. It dominated the competition with an average of $30,076, which is the third best average for a wide release this year, behind Beauty and the Beast ($41,508) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($33,704). The only limited release that came close to the $10,000 mark was Rebel in the Rye, which earned an average of $9,492 in four theaters.
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Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales.
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Not for the first time, reports of the death of North American film-going have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, if it’s possible for one film to change the perception of the entire market, It is pretty much, well, it. With an opening expected to be around $120 million—Warner Bros. is saying $117.15 million, although that’s due in part to caution around the effects of Hurricane Irma; the actual figure could be closer to $125 million, depending on how the storm plays out—the film breaks all sorts of records by a huge margin.
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It was widely expected to earn the biggest September weekend box office of all time. In fact, many were expecting it to crush the old record. However, almost no one expected this. The film earned an estimated $51 million on Friday, which is more than the previous record holder, Hotel Transylvania 2, earned during its entire opening weekend. September is traditionally a weak time to open a movie, but this is in the top 30 biggest opening Fridays of all-time. There is some bad news here, as the film isn’t expected to have long legs. While the reviews remain stunning, the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. This is better than most horror movies earn, but it suggests average legs, at best. There is a small chance the film will earn less over the rest of the weekend than it earned on Friday, but I think that’s being a bit too pessimistic. I would put its range at between $100 million and $125 million. There’s a large margin of error, because we are in unprecedented territory here. It goes without saying that the sequel is already in the works. Box office watchers will get to play amateur casting agents for a little while, but I suspect some big names will be cast as the adults for part two.
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I was worried the extended box office slump would hurt It’s box office numbers, but it appears the opposite is true and moviegoers were just waiting for a big release. (On a side note, while “It’s” is grammatically correct, I’m so used to being paranoid about “its” vs. “it’s” that it looks wrong.) Anyhoo, It pulled in $13.5 million in previews, setting the record for best previews for an R-rated film, overtaking Deadpool’s previous best of $12.7 million. Where does it go from here? I don’t know is the only accurate answer. Previews haven’t been standard for long enough to be an accurate gauge, especially when they are on the extremes like this. It could become the first September release to earn $100 million during its opening weekend. Anything less than $75 million will be seen as a disappointment after this result. It all depends on its legs and that depends on whether or not its reviews will be a bigger factor than pre-release hype. I’m choosing to be cautiously optimistic. I’m not betting on $100 million, but $90 million is a reasonable goal at the moment.
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The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree.
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The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace.
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Expectations for this weekend were really low. They were so low that when I saw The Hitman’s Bodyguard had earned $2.43 million on Friday, I was pleasantly surprised. That’s only 20% lower than last Friday and the holiday should boost its three-day legs, helping it earn just over $9 million. It’s on pace for $12 million over four days for a running tally of over $55 million. That’s enough for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire $30 million production budget.
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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Next week, It hits theaters. There are more films than this one opening, but it is on track to be the biggest hit of the month, so it is the only film that really matters. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for It.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Home Media Magazine.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

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