Strained EU-Turkey ties, vulnerable Balkans

Turkey's worsening relations with Western countries weigh down in the Balkans.

As the G20 summit in Hamburg reached a conclusion, experts warned that Turkey’s deteriorating relations with its allies – including Germany, the EU and U.S. – are leaving their marks on the Balkans, according to Balkan Insight. Sharp rhetoric in recent years has partly contributed to cooling ties, possibly inciting a new move in Turkish foreign policy, from the Western bloc towards Russia. This could have a key impact on both the Balkans and EU, the former of which is also noticeably affected by its own internal economic, political, and social issues, with an already strong Turkish influence.

The departure of former Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, the main engineer of Turkey’s Balkan “soft power” engagement, changed relations between Turkey and these states. Erdoğan stopped following Davutoğlu’s blueprint in favour of fostering personal relations with individual Muslim leaders. Accounting Erdoğan’s noted presence in some Balkan states’ domestic affairs, tensions between Ankara, local Muslim communities, and regional authorities surface. Balkan Insight cites an unnamed Turkey expert who says Ankara’s communication with other leaders is limited and Turkey cannot emerge as an alternative to the EU. Given domestic issues, Turkey remains divided under a leadership without clear long-term strategies for its own country and the wider region.

Though, as issues with its old allies and surrounding armed conflicts unfold, observers wonder whether Erdoğan will steer eastwards to a Russo-Eurasian destination, since in times of turbulence Ankara tends to make a turn towards Moscow – a matter that has become increasingly visible since the early 2000s. However, one thing is clear: Turkish foreign policy in its current form has the potential to affect the greater region – including the Balkans, Caucasus, Middle East, and the EU – since Ankara is focal to many crises in geostrategic terms. After all, the Near East is the Navel of the World.