Update (Dec. 3): You can check out my article for The Globe and Mail today, detailing the latest federal aggregation and the seat breakdown it could deliver. Also, it has a neat-o interactive chart of all the projections I have done for the Globe since the 2011 election. And we reached 35% yesterday! Thanks again - if we can keep up growth of three or four points per day we will reach our goal with a little time to spare!

I'll be updating the project here and on the Kickstarter project page every Monday as we approach the finish line of Dec. 27. And there are a few things to go over today, including an outline of the eBook and some new rewards!

(For more on the project, see here or visit the Kickstarter project page.)
But first, let's get to the outline of the eBook. The idea behind the book is for it to be a historical record of the year in politics but also the year in polling, and to keep it fun and interesting to read. I'll be breaking the book down into 14 chapters (plus a foreword and introduction) as well as some reference tables at the end of the eBook. These will breakdown and record this site's aggregations, as well as tabulate all the public domain polls that firms are willing to include. That means federal, provincial, and leadership data.

Here's a brief outline of the chapters to give you a taste of how the book will be laid out, as well as a bit of the style. These titles are tentative, of course:

1. The Decision: January to March - The federal political landscape begins to shift as Liberals consider who they will select to be their next leader.2. New Kid on the Block: New Brunswick - New leader Brian Gallant wins a by-election to enter the legislature, as his Liberal Party takes advantage of faltering Tory support.3. Failure: British Columbia - The B.C. New Democrats and the polling industry come up short in the province's general election.4. Trudeaumania 2.0: April to June - The federal Liberals surge into first place as the party chooses Justin Trudeau as the leader to take them into the 2015 election.5. The Flood: Alberta - An effective response to a natural disaster bolsters Alison Redford's PCs, but Wildrose is not going away.6. Dynasty in Trouble: Manitoba - A hike in the PST results in a drop of support for the four-term NDP government.7. A Test of Leadership: Ontario - The Liberals choose their new leader after Dalton McGuinty steps down, and a series of by-elections put PC leader Tim Hudak in a tough spot.8. The Calm Before the Storm: July to September - A summer of anticipation as federal politics slowly heats up.9. La charte: Quebec - A controversial new charter boosts the fortunes of the Parti Québécois, as a new PLQ leader takes the lead.10. Smooth Sailing on Troubled Waters: Prince Edward Island - Robert Ghiz hovers above the fray as the opposition jostles for position.11. One-Term Wonder: Nova Scotia - The historic breakthrough of the New Democrats in Nova Scotia is dealt a blow at the ballot box.12. Crisitunity!: Newfoundland and Labrador - The NDP shoots itself in the foot just as the Liberals choose a new leader and the Tories continue their slide.13. The Great Wall: Saskatchewan - The most popular leader in Canada makes a move against the Senate.14. Scandal: October to December - The Senate scandal poisons the Conservative well, turning Justin Trudeau's honeymoon into a long engagement.

Now to new the rewards. I received some feedback to the effect that my rewards aren't great. Pledges of $10 to $100 earn you an advanced copy of the eBook in a number of formats, with more generous pledges getting you up the supporter category ladder (pledges of $250 or $500 get your business or a charity of your choice ad space on this site as well). Perhaps that isn't enough.

So, I've decided to edit two of the reward categories:

Pledges of $75 will get you a copy of the eBook and your name listed in the Majority Government supporter category, as well as a Riding History for a federal riding (current boundaries) of your choice, to be posted on this site before the 2015 election. I have already done ones for Toronto-Danforth and Calgary Southwest. Want me to do your riding? Here's your chance!

Pledges of $100 will get you a copy of the eBook and your name listed in the Natural Governing Party supporter category, as well as an analysis on a topic of your choice or a Riding History for a federal riding (current boundaries), to be posted on this site before the 2015 election. Please get in touch with me first about the analysis topic you'd like me to tackle, to ensure that it is appropriate to this site and doable.

Backers who have already pledged this amount will be contacted so that they can claim their riding or analysis topic. Backers who have already pledged less than $75 but are interested in these rewards do have the option to increase their pledge. I will list the ridings and topics claimed in the FAQ section of the Kickstarter page.

I am open to suggestions for rewards that could be added to the $20, $30, and $50 categories. Please leave them in the comments below, at the Kickstarter page, or shoot me an email.

Now back to your regularly scheduled polling analysis. The federal polling averages, for instance, have been updated this morning.

6 comments:

This isn't directly related to your eBook kickstarter but I have a question. Why have you stopped listing the most recent poll results in a table on the Canada and Ontario poll average pages and instead posted a link to look at recent polls on a Wikipedia page? Doing that makes it harder for me to know which polls you have or have not yet included in the rolling average.

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Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

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