The last sign was the return of the Icon of Christ the Savior in Hogia Sophia when some of the Islamic stone work fell away from the wall revealing the icon behind it. It was ever questionable when and how the final war of Turkey's existence would start, but Turkey itself has provided the grenade that will tear it apart.

In a quest to reestablished the Ottoman Empire through the Caliph and to get NATO backing, Turkey has actively sponsored, trained, healed and armed the Islamic fighters who were out to destroy the last pro-Christian secular power in the Arab Mid-East, Syria (today there are two, as Egypt has stepped away from the precipice and crushed the US sponsored Muslim Brotherhood).

By so doing, Turkey, along with its partners in crime: the US, UK, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE have unleashed a well trained, well funded terror force never before seen in human history. ISIS. Besides actively fighting Syria's army, Iraqi's army, Iran's border forces and being bombed by even their sponsors (both with explosive bombs and money bombs, least we forget who feeds these bastards), and threatening global war with the US, EU, Russia, China, Iran, India and well the rest of humanity, ISIS has been actively fighting the Kurds.

The Kurds, first in Syria and then in Iraq have taken to fighting and pushing out these fanatics. While the Iraqi Kurds have a strong military, the Syrian Kurds are home grown militias and have suffered several defeats. Several towns have fallen and have been subjected to whole sale genocide.

Kurdish refugees have run north in Turkey. Many have been stopped at the Turkish border and allowed to be butchered by ISIS, the bastard step child of Turkey. This in turn has awaken the slumbering power of the PPK in Turkish Kurdistan (hint that's 1/3rd of Turkey). Kurdish volunteers started streaming across the border in huge caravans to help their kin fight off the ISIS nightmare.

Turkey, of course, could not allow such a thing, so they have resorted to closing the border and shooting tear gas at their own Kurds. The Kurds took to the streets and this has quickly transformed into live ammunition being deployed by both sides. While to early to call this a civil war, it is definitely heading in that direction.

So what will/may happen. This is an educated guess, of course so we will see, but here goes:

Turkey slides into civil war, full blown civil war with the Kurds on one side and the Turks on the other. This will crash the Turkish economy, leaving further discontent, especially as the ever important tourism sector disappears.

Syria will hold on, though about 1/3rd of the country will be in the hands of Islamics and 1/3rd in the hands of Kurds.

Baghdad will fall, block by block fighting will break out in the south east Shite sections. The Shia of Iraq will in effect become a separate Iranian vassal and the Iranian army will flood in. Battles will result in a back and forth. The Iranians will not push this to hard, however, as holding southern Iraq and holding the sword of Domeclies over Saudi Arabia's and Kuwait's heads is a fine position to be in.

Israel will come to the reality of real politic. Secret talks with Hezbullah will continue at an accelerated pace and the Israelis will be forced to support Assad and Hezbullah in order to keep ISIS from dominating Syria. Egypt and the PLA will continue covertly working with the Israelis to crush Hamas.

So far so good, nothing to scary, except for the Turks. Here is where it gets scary and in a hurry.

Sensing Turkish distraction and strain and with Turkey forced to pull in its military to more effectively defend its southern border and fight off the Kurds, S.Cyprus will make a military grab for N.Cyprus to oust the hated Turkish overlords from the lands they stole in 1971. Greece will of course fully support this move.

Turkey will retaliate, first by grabbing a few islands, and threatening Greece then, when Greece retaliates, by military force. The radicals in Greece will grab power from the weak and despised EU vassals. The war will explode into full force. Serbian and Bulgarian volunteers will flood in and both countries will be pulled into a direct war with Turkey. NATO will be paralyzed as well as the EU.

EU markets will tank on the news of a regional war in the Balkans. The war will quickly escalate to include the Israelis and their navel assets. Turkey will respond as it only knows how: mass genocide of the Orthodox population. This will bring Russia into the war.

Russia's entry will spark NATO's great powers into a general war with Russia. However, NATO's Black Sea fleet will be destroyed in short order and with Bulgaria in a direct war with Turkey, they will be forced to port first in Romania, until that country through treaties with Russia decides to take the opportunity to divvy up Moldova.

Further NATO reinforcements will have to fight their way through the Greek Islands, as Greece will now be their enemy.

Meanwhile, to get directly at the Turks, Russia will rush through Georgia, further crushing NATO's small contingent there and securing its southern border. Armenia and Azerbaijan will both be given a chunk of Georgia where their ethnic groups are dominant. With Turkey collapsing from a further Russian onslaught, the east of the country will fall to Armenia (Tribzone) and to the newly formed Kurdistan.

The war with NATO will be primarily fought in the Baltics and in Ukraine. Belarus will declare neutrality and close its borders to both sides. Kalinengrad will be besieged but the Iskadars stationed there will destroy many of the infrastructural and depot facilities in Poland. This in turn will crash the Polish economy, with its ports burning and its rail lines broken.

A Russian airborne led army will sweep through the Baltics, closing down the NATO ports to the NW and pushing back the NATO air umbrella.

In Ukraine, the main battles will be fought. The war will be short. Ukraine's army will be crushed fully in short order. NATO troops will arrive as piece meal stop gaps and while most contingents will fight much harder then the broken Ukrainian forces, they will be destroyed. National Republics will spring up all over Novorossia, demanding unification with Russia.

NATO will start a mass mobilization but will find itself with massive protests in its home countries, especially with the already heavy casualties incurred to the forward units. Meanwhile, the NATO forces in Afghanistan will find themselves cut off with no easy route to escape and no resupply coming. They will be forced to abandon their bases and fight their way out through Pakistan with massive casualties.

Cut off from gas and oil from Russia, having lost massive casualties in Ukraine and Afghanistan, the national governments of the UK, France, Italy and Spain will fall to nationalistic parties who will exit the war and maybe NATO. Spain will disintegrate as Catalonia first, then Narva and Basque seek independence, and the Basque on the French side will do the same.

Seeing Ukraine dying as a nation, Hungary and Slovakia will both grad their ethnic neighboring oblasts and Poland will set a "protectorate" over Lvov. The war will end with a rump Ukraine of old Malorossia mired in poverty and chaos. Novorossia will be part of Russia, as well as Georgia, Abhazia. Negotiations on the Baltics and Kalinengrad will drag on for years.

In the ME, central Turkey as well as eastern Syria, northern Saudi Arabia and central Iraq will be a zone of chaos to which Afghanistan and large parts of Turkmenistan and Pakistan will join. This is the zone of the ISIS tyranny, constant war and death and steady depopulation.

The Allawite, Lebanese and what is left of the Heshemites of Jordan will form a military and political alliance to defend themselves. Israel will use the opportunity to expel the Palestinians and officially annex the East Bank and Gaza. The Syrian Union will also expel the Palestinians into the ISIS zone of chaos. Iran will equally expand into a protectorate over southern Pakistan.

Bulgaria will grab a large slice of Thrace but the biggest winner will be Greece which with Russian intervention will get Constantinople back and will recreate the Byzantine Empire.

11 comments:

As an Armenian, in the past I have lamented the fact that the Kurdish people came to dominate Eastern Anatolia after the final Armenian Genocide in 1915. But in Santa Barbara years ago the major Kurdish groups in meetings with Armenian groups admitted what they did under Turkish supervision in 1915 and we have accepted it as sincere.

When my step-grandfather returned to his birth home in historic Armenia he met the Kurdish family that lives there. They asked him: have the Armenians returned to take back their homes?

We have realized that if Kurdistan became dominate in Eastern Anatolia then Armenia would no longer have an enemy to its west, in fact it would have a friend.

In your possible future map you show Armenia taking what looks like the area of the late medieval Trebizond Empire. There are hardly any Armenians there anymore so there are few friends that would happily open the gates, but still it's possible if the Kurds have neutralized the Turks.

With a collapse of Turkish power the Georgians might also try to take it as well. Armenia and Georgia might be at war except that Russia will quickly neutralize Georgia. In any case Georgia is a vassal of the US and will do its bidding, if it can.

The question mark is Azerbaijan. It is playing both sides. But its recent sign on to agreement of Caspian bordering states to keep foreign forces out of the region may suggest that it has not abandoned Russia and Iran as much as we thought. It will likely not risk too much with Iran and Russia looking over its shoulder.

While everyone is focusing on IS the biggest wildcard in the region are the Kurds that have it in their power to potentially dismember Turkey. But all the major powers in the region are manipulating the Kurds to keep them from coalescing into a regional power. What major power anywhere in the world will back the Kurds? Forget the US. Russia? China? India? I don't see it yet. But if the Kurds get sufficient backing and start a concerted attack on Turkey then the upheaval that you are suggesting will begin. We must not forget that the US will back the Turks. I do see a scenario where Greece realigns itself to Russia and China which leads me to think you are not off the mark in suggesting that Greece will re-energize the Great Idea it had in the early 1920's to retake Ionia from the Turks, and in a vise between Greece and the Kurds the Turks might not prevail.

Many in the West might laugh at your map out of ignorance of the region and its dormant potentially explosive forces. The West has already lit the fuse. The main act is yet to come.

Interesting presentation of events It was a great mistake by the great powers to deliver to Turkey Konstantinoupolis and the straits. Evksinos Pontos (I use the old name to remind everyone of the Turkish genocide of the Pontian Greeks who were massacred many ended up in Southern Russia and Krimaia to escape others to Greece as refugees) (Black Sea) is a closed sea and Russia does not have access to the Aegean and hence the Mediterranean. Turkey will simply deny passage to the Russian fleet and therefore major wars will be fought for the straights. At some point, Justice will prevail and the area will be given to be governed by the Ellines the rightful owners from antiquity.

@Stanislav: I hope you are wrong about the fate of the Palestinians. You are aware, of course, that many Palestinians are Christians. I've noted a somewhat pro-Israel bias in your writings over the years, or maybe that is my imagination. Regardless, the fact is the Israel is a very anti-Christian nation: they've pursued policies that have led to the destruction of numerous Christian communities, both directly and indirectly (by encouraging radicalism). Wouldn't God's grace want to protect Christian Palestinians?

I propose hubris and incompetence as the ultimate cause of this situation, and unfortunately US is not the only fool here. Would be better if it was - because world needs some adults involved right now.

The WWII generation is rapidly leaving, but I would suspect all of them, almost to a man - would just say: "Don't go there. This is folly of the worst kind."

HelloBrilliant work here and I encourage you to write more. I just found your blog.As an Orthodox Romanian I support Russia more then every nation in the world because I know the history of Russia. I also see the reality of western immorality and atheism.God Bless Russia and all Orthodox nations.

Overall I agree with what you have said in this post and the map(although I think Iran will not like the reality of a big kurdish chunk being independent, Israel is another matter altogether). But really my biggest concern are the Greeks themselves; they have believed those Neo-Carolingians(North Western Europeans). Greeks have bought into the whole cultural paradigm of these north-westerners, and that's because these people have tried to construct some imaginary "Western civilization" which starts with the Greeks goes to the Romans and end up in North-Western Europe, hmm how convenient. They assume that simply integrating the ideas of one society into theirs(mainly greco roman ideas into northwestern Europe) equals as being part of one civilization. Stupidity absolute stupidity. If that were the case then all of east asia is part of Hindu civilization since Buddhism was originally from India. The Western point of view (and I mean that in the broadest sense) has been swallowed up by Greeks. I think it's pretty clear from looking at maps of Europe going back into pre Roman times that this continent is INHERENTLY divided and cannot not will it ever be united under one civilization or culture at least not peacefully. If my assumptions are correct Europe is divided along three main cultural fault lines 1. Mediterranean Europe 2. Eurasian Europe or Eastern Europe 3. Northwestern or "Atlantic" Europe. These areas are truly worlds of their own. But the problem is this mythical thing called Western civilization and Europe. That last word is just a geographic expression which has basically been corrupted to mean anything that is convenient for those bastards. Greeks and all other people of the mediterranean will do well to look at the west not as something that they are part of but something as separate and only restricted to northwestern Europe just like Russia has(America is a product of this so is northern Spain and Italy to a certain extent). The only proper way to describe this geopolitical and geo-cultural space is Carolingian. The Franks were the ones who gave this area a sense of unity and culture; sure the core countries(Benelux France Germany and Britain) differ but their cultural roots go back to the Carolingians. Stanislav the point I'm trying to make is that victory lies in killing this idea, this myth of "Europe" and the way to do that is for people, who are not Carolingian or Western, to stop believing in it as well as to stop wanting to be admitted into the "Western" club, the Greeks can do this they must get back anything and everything that has been distorted by the intellectual masturbations of these North-westerners especially the Classical Greek heritage. The battlefield and victory lie in the mind and ideas, only later does it manifest on the real physical battlefield. Best regards, Ivan.

Some of the world's most prolific oilfields are at the edge of the map. I am referring to eastern Saudi Arabia near the Persian Gulf, Kuwait, and the Neutral Zone. What would you prefer happen to this windfall?