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The Fallen Premiums – Rd 6

Written by Chillo on May 1 2019

This week’s batch of Fallen Premiums are all very good footballers who are certainly Supercoach relevant (with one possible exception, which will be noted later). I don’t really need to say any more about that. Instead, it’s been a good couple of weeks since I had a rant, so here’s one to think about.

In the 1970’s, the Dutch football team (that’s the round ball game, for the uninitiated) famously implemented a tactic they called totaalvoetbal – “total football”. Essentially, only the goalkeeper had a defined role, and the other 10 players on the field were instructed to be capable of playing any position – defence, midfield or as a striker. The overall team structure stayed the same, but the system worked due to the outstanding adaptability and versatility of the individuals within the team.

In the 2010’s, Australian Rules football has Luke Beveridge and the Bulldogs. The Dogs are an incredibly talented football team who won a flag in 2016 with a manic, pressure-based style of football. However, clearly the coach has taken his inspiration from the Dutch, and since then has utterly refused to assign defined roles to the players in his team – we’ve seen small forwards used as defenders, midfielders at centre half forward, and full forwards in the centre square. Unfortunately it seems that the Bulldogs lack the versatility in their playing stocks that the Dutch boasted, and have a 21-29 record since that day in October 2016. They have missed the finals in successive years since their premiership triumph, which must by now qualify as one of the great performance outliers in recent sporting history.

For Supercoach purposes, I think this means we’re forced to exercise extreme caution around picking any players from this Bulldogs team. Even players like the great Macrae, who broke all sorts of scoring records last year, need to be monitored closely. OK, rant over, on to the Fallen Premiums!

Seriously, is there anyone at the Crows not named Rory?

DEFENDERS

Rory LAIRD (ADE), $531 200 (-$56.4K), avg 100, BE 92 – Rory started the season a little slower than usual, but has still posted a more than respectable average for a defender. His season-best 124 last week came in the absence of Wayne Milera, which may or may not be a coincidence, and reason for thinking twice about bring him in. However, Milera’s extended absence (currently listed as 3-4 weeks) should afford Laird plenty of scoring opportunities in the near future. Has been a top 10 defender in each of the past four seasons, and it’s hard to see that streak being broken in 2019.

Clayton OLIVER (MEL), $550 100 (-$72.5K), avg 101, BE 107 – The Demons’ fall from grace this year has been mirrored somewhat by the form of the beastliest of their midfielders, whose average is down by more than 13 ppg on his 2018 mark. But it would be unwise to count out Oliver, who still forms one of the great rover-ruck combos in the comp with Max Gawn. If Melbourne can turn their season around, you should expect Clarrie to be leading the way.

Nathan FYFE (FRE), $564 000 (-$54.1K), avg 114, BE 90 – A pat on the back to those who held Fyfe through his concussion issues earlier this year, as he has bounced back with scores of 110 and 128 since his return to the field. In a similar vein to the likes of Rockliff and Ablett, everyone knows by now what Nat is capable of, it’s just a matter of whether he can string together enough games to make it count. The concussion-affected 63 drops out of the cycle this week; he has gone 110+ in the other four games he has played.

Max GAWN (MEL), $645 200 (-$46.9K), avg 119, BE 104 – Here’s my favourite broken record again: Yes, Ben McEvoy is having a great season, and Mummy is doing what Mummy does…but there’s really only two players you want in the ruck this season. SuperMax is a captaincy option every week, and that’s definitely something worth spending the big bucks on. If you haven’t got him for some reason, I recommend upgrading as soon as possible!

Timberrrr….Brodie Grundy, $685K, BE 165

Happy days for Dunks

FORWARDS

Josh DUNKLEY (WBD), $454 500 (-$61.8K), avg 86, BE 76 – Hey, remember a while back at the top of this article when I said all these Fallen Premiums are certainly Supercoach relevant, with one possible exception? Here you are. Josh Dunkley popped up on the SC radar late last year, when he averaged 111 post-bye playing a tagging/inside mid role. He certainly has not maintained that role in 2019, so by selecting Dunkley at this point, you’re relying on history repeating itself. Back-to-back 90s in the past fortnight is somewhat encouraging (would’ve tonned up last week but for a left foot snap that hit the woodwork), he has the round 12 bye and DPP status. Convinced yet??

Tim KELLY (GEE), $476 700 (-$29.1K), avg 96, BE 62 – TK was here last week, but he’s even better value this week. Currently ranked 9th in scoring among forwards. If you take out that (possibly injury affected) 39 point shocker against the Giants, he’d be ranked 3rd. At this price and break-even, he’s an absolute must this week if you don’t have him. Geelong’s next five games: Bombers, Roos, Dogs, Suns and Swans. That’s a spicy meatball!

Great question, I’ve been wondering that myself. Sicily has the better bye and average, but is more expensive and Sicily. Laird will probably score better until Milera returns – then what?
If you figure it out, can you let me know?

Nice analogy Chillo, but I would never compare the bull Dogs to the Dutch masters. Then again, at least they won a flag, and the Dutch … scored in that fateful World Cup Final before the Germans had even touched the ball! Sadly, it was not to be and they lost 2-1.

With Milera not requiring surgery, I’m reluctant to jump on the Laird train just yet. Kelly and Lloyd are simply bigger priorities for me right now.

If I offload collins and petrucelle I can get fyfe and tkelly, just.
However it was pointed out to me that petrucelle could still make some decent money.
Other rookies to move on won’t let me cover both trades.
A bit to think about this week!

Would you prioritise fyfe or tkelly this week? Moving on libba and downgrading a rookie to hayes (permitting he is named) to facilitate the trade.
I also already have heeney and danger as my only premo fwds, does this in itself solve my conundrum?

Hey guys. Just had 2 late drop outs from one of our $50 cash leagues, so 2 spots left to fill if anyone is interested. Email me at supercoachwithdr@outlook.com if you would like a spot. Would love to get this filled! Cheers. DR

In all seriousness COVID should at least be some consideration for team composition. Spread the risk and expect outs – avoid too many players on a single team and job security is a key factor for rookie cover. Unless whole league shuts down…