Just as we feared, dangerous missiles have gone missing in Libya by the tens of thousands.

Over the past month we have posted 3 articles about serious questions surrounding the new regime attempting to take total control in Libya and the disposition of thousands of sophisticated weapons in Colonel Qaddafi’s arsenal:

Many of the rebels are Jihadists with ties to organizations like Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. That makes the fact that as many as 20,000 surface to air missiles are missing in Libya all the more worrisome.

There are two types in question: the SA-7 and the SA-24 (see our previous post above for details on these systems). The SA-24 is by far the more sophisticated of the two and is believed to be highly coveted by terrorists, Hugo Chavez and the Iranians alike:

Fortunately, there are at least some reports that indicate that the Libyan SA-24s are NOT man-portable, but require a mount for a vehicle, as depicted in the photograph above. They are still deadly, but this characteristic might make them less useful for terrorists operating in a covert manner. Nevertheless, they could be very useful for hostile regimes, such as Iran and they could also be used by insurgents in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and elsewhere.

These missing weapons and the Jihadist-ties of the rebels in Libya represent one of the biggest failures in the history of NATO.

It is quite probable that NATO supported and facilitated an Islamist revolution in Libya made up at least partially of the West’s deadliest enemies. To make matters worse, despite the fact that NATO forces were in a position to operate with impunity in Libya if needed–and despite the fact there have been reports for months about Libya’s arsenal of weapons and what might happen to them, thousands of sophisticated surface to air missiles have gone missing.

There is simply no excuse for this development. NATO’s top priority never should have been to aid the rebels. NATO’s top priority should have been to secure Libya’s weaponry and NATO failed to do so. As a result, there is a very good chance that innocent people will be killed.

A Jemaah Islamiyah bomb expert is reported to have joined a breakaway faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and is working to attack targets in the southern Philippines.

The breakaway faction is referred to as BIFF (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters).

The bombmaker, Abdul Basit Usman, also known as Abu Ahmad, is reported to have trained as many as 20 other Jihadist BIFF terrorists. BIFF is believed to number between 100 and 200 members and broke away from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) when the MILF entered into talks with the government two or more years ago.

There are two significant worries for the West with regard to the future of Libya in the wake of its revolution.

1. What form will the new regime take? Will it be dominated by Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood?

We already have indications that the new Libyan constitution will be based on Sharia, which is a bad first step from a Western perspective, since Sharia commands of its adherents that they either wage or support violent Jihad to make allah’s religion supreme on earth. A regime dominated by Islamists such as the Muslim Brotherhood will be inherently hostile toward the West, despite what the Left in the West may wish to believe. Need we remind anyone of the Muslim Brotherhood’s motto?

– Allah is our objective.– The Prophet is our leader.– Qur’an is our law.– Jihad is our way.– Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.

Perhaps the most ominous sign in Libya is the fact that the apparent leader of the revolution’s armed wing is a violent Jihadist with ties to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We alluded to this a few days ago…

2. Just as worrisome as the Islamist and Jihadist tendencies of the new regime are the disposition of the numerous weapons spread all around Libya–everything from small arms and Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs) to advanced, Russian-made MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems), also known as shoulder-fired surface to air missiles.

Up to this point, it has generally been assumed that Jihadist terrorists have been armed with the SA-7 Grail MANPAD. While the SA-7 can be deadly, it is considered a first generation MANPAD that can be effectively neutralized with various countermeasures. We don’t see or hear of many instances these days in which the SA-7 has downed any aircraft.

SA-7 Grail

Unfortunately, it appears that the Libyans had plentiful stocks of the much more advanced SA-24 Grinch. The SA-24 in the hands of Jihadist terrorists and insurgents would pose a much greater threat to both civilian airliners and military helicopters. Given the make-up of the new regime in Libya, not to mention the chaos there over the past several months, there is a very real possibility, if not a probability, that Libyan SA-24s will end up in the hands of organizations such as Al Qaeda, Hamas and the Taliban.

SA-24s in the hands of Al Qaeda, Hamas, the Taliban and others represents a exponential increase in the lethality and capability of those groups to inflict casualties on American, NATO, Israeli and other allied militaries, not to mention the ominous scenario in which the SA-24 could be used to attack civilian airliners.

Unfortunately, many on the Left in the West seem to be completely in denial about the National Transition Council (NTC), assuming that the NTC will safeguard all of these weapons and not allow them to fall in the hands of Jihadists. But with so many Jihadists making up the NTC, including its leadership, that wishful thinking is likely to get some innocent people killed.

Nor are MANPADS the only weapons that we need to worry about. Among the weapons stockpiled in and around Libya are various types of anti-tank weapons. We’re not talking about run-of-the-mill RPGs here, we’re talking about ATGWs (Anti-Tank Guided Weapons). Among the weapons thought to be in the Libyan inventory prior to the revolution were AT-3 Saggers, AT-4 Spigots and AT-5 Spandrels. These weapons are light years ahead of the RPG in terms of armor penetration, accuracy and range.

The AT-3 is a 1970s-era, wire-guided weapon. While this missile is unlikely to be able to penetrate the frontal armor on the M-1A2 Abrams main battle tank, it is a major threat to armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles and, whereas the RPG has a maximum range of around 300 meters, the AT-3 has an effective range of between 1000 and 3000 meters. Libyan “rebels” have in fact been observed using AT-3s in the past few months.

AT-3 Sagger

The AT-4 Spigot was originally designed as the replacement for the AT-3 in Soviet service and it has several improvements over the AT-3 including a closer-range engagement capability of just 70 meters, higher flight speed and improved accuracy and armor penetration. It’s maximum effective range is 2,000 meters.

AT-4 Spigot

The AT-5 Spandrel is roughly equivalent to the US TOW ATGW and mainly launched from armored vehicles, although it can also be deployed as a man-portable system. It has a greater armor penetrating capability than the AT-3 and AT-4 and has a range of between 70 and 4,000 meters. Iranian-manufactured copies of the AT-5 were reportedly used with good effect by Hezbollah against Israeli forces in 2006.

AT-5 Spandrel

Finally, none of this addresses the even more worrisome issue of stocks of radiological material and chemical agents in Libya.

There are thought to be Libyan stocks of material suitable for making “dirty” bombs, something that has been a nightmare scenario on the minds of Western security organizations for years. These stocks include uranium yellowcake.

Libya’s chemical agents are believed to mostly be made up of mustard gas. It’s Sarin nerve agents were reportedly never fully completed. The condition of the mustard agents is unknown and mustard gas is in fact bulky and perishable, so we can all “hope” that no Libyan mustard gas falls into sinister, hostile hands. But, as we all know, “hope” is not a policy.

We don’t have the color-coded alert system any more, but that hasn’t stopped the Department of Homeland Security from issuing vague alerts about the possibility of terrorist attacks.

Astonishingly enough, the alert this weekend, the 10th anniversary of the September 11th attacks, has nothing to do with the Iraq war veterans and angry white men that Janet Napolitano’s Department of Homeland Security have been insisting are the major terrorist threat to America. The alert is about Jihadists targeting New York City and Washington, D.C.

Who would have thunk it!? Jihadists targeting New York and Washington! How novel!

Pardon us for this bit of sarcasm, but we are more than a little disgusted by Ms. Napolitano’s incompetence and political correctness. In fact, Napolitano was apparently caught flatfooted yet again by this latest threat. Just days ago she publicly proclaimed that there were no threats associated with the anniversary of 9/11 and it took reporters asking her at a news conference if that was still true for the truth to slip out. True to form, Napolitano gave a halting, cryptic reply. Later that night (Thursday), the Feds issued an advisory.

Unconfirmed reports are that the advisory came from a tip from an intelligence asset in the tribal areas of northwest Pakistan.

The NYPD, which is more respected in law enforcement circles than the federal Department of Homeland Security, issued its own advisory, which was much clearer than Napolitano’s utterance. Jim Kouri over at the Law Enforcement Examiner has an article on that…

Speaking of New York, here is an interesting article on the extensive measures that the Big Apple has taken to safeguard its people and vital infrastructure. An attack on New York is an attack on the entire USA and there is no target more important, both in the minds of the Jihadists and from America’s perspective.

Finally, here is an article from the New York Daily News with further unconfirmed details about the threat. The main worry, according to this report anyway, seems to be 3 Al Qaeda terrorists who were dispatched by Ayman al-Zawahiri to set off car bombs near transit points on Sunday, September 11th…Frankly, this seems odd to us because, even with the commemoration on Sunday, the transit assets would still be much more crowded on a normal business day…

LATE ADDITION: A new report just came out from The Daily with additional details on the threat. According to this report, Zawahiri planned the alleged 9/11 anniversary operation himself. Two of the three terrorists are said to be U.S. citizens. They are said to have traveled to Pakistan through Iran. (It is worth remembering that several of the 9/11 hijackers also transited through Iran, which will often not stamp passports, thus concealing the travel of terrorists.) The Daily article is not entirely clear, but the terrorists are then said to have traveled back to the USA through Saudi Arabia or Dubai.

It’s been a long time since anyone cared about Joe Wilson, the erstwhile career diplomat selected by his wife to travel to Africa to find out about Saddam Hussein’s quest for uranium. Things must be slowing down for poor old Joe and that government pension courtesy of US taxpayers must not be providing the life style that he so richly desires. So, Joe is talking with Al Jazeera, the news network of Jihad and Islamofacism.

Joe is playing Al Jazeera’s tune, perpetuating the narrative that Saddam Hussein had no ties to Al Qaeda. Al Jazeera even trotted out some former Army National Guard soldier named Geoff Miller who they quote as saying that Al Qaeda in Iraq had no connection to Osama Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda.

Make no mistake about it. That is a bald-faced lie. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would beg to differ. But, according to Al Jazeera, Miller says the US created Al Qaeda in Iraq. Well, the moron conspiracy theorists in the Islamic world are at least getting more creative. They didn’t blame this one on the Mossad for a change. Al Jazeera gives no indication of what Miller’s qualifications are, nor do they cite any evidence at all to back up this incredible statement.

It appears that despite their efforts at a makeover, Al Jazeera still really is the propaganda arm of Al Qaeda.

This gives us an opportunity to revisit the subject of Saddam Hussein’s involvement with Al Qaeda and its allied Jihadists. The facts are very different from what most people have heard. It just so happens that this blogger wrote on this very subject for Human Events a few years ago shortly after the Pentagon commissioned a report on the subject based on analysis of intelligence gathered on the ground in Iraq. The reality doesn’t match Al Jazeera’s narrative and the US news media actively sought to smother the evidence in this report when it came out over 3 years ago. I have reproduced my original article here:

The Truth About Saddam and Terrorism

by Christopher Holton

Human Events, March 21, 2008

Saddam Hussein’s Iraq had extensive ties to terrorist organizations, including Al Qaeda, according to an official report published by the Pentagon’s Institute for Defense Analyses and released through the Joint Forces Command.

That report, Saddam and Terrorism: Emerging Insights from Captured Iraqi Documents, came up with some startling revelations in its 59 pages:

• Saddam’s Iraq trained terrorists for use inside and outside Iraq and in 1999 sent 10 terrorist-training graduates to London to carry out attacks throughout Europe. (Page 1)

• In September of 2001, Saddam’s Iraq sought out and compiled a list of 43 suicide-bomb volunteers in a “Martyrdom Project.” (Pages 7-8)

• The report contains language from a captured Iraqi document which references an attempted assassination of Danielle Mitterand, wife of French President Francois Mitterand, by car bomb. (Page 11)

• The report’s authors describe Saddam’s Iraq as a “long-standing supporter of international terrorism” including several organizations designated as international terrorist organizations by the US State Department. (Page 13)

> Fatah-Revolutionary Council (Abu Nidal Organization). (Author’s note: Abu Nidal was generally considered the world’s most dangerous terrorist in the late 1980s.)

> Palestine Liberation Front (led by Abu al-Abbas). (Author’s note: Abbas was the mastermind of the Achille Lauro hijacking and the murderer of American Leon Klinghoffer.)

> Renewal and Jihad Organization, which the Iraqi documents describe as a “Secret Islamic Palestinian Organization” that “believes in armed jihad against the Americans and Western interests.”

> Islamic Ulama Group, a radical Islamist group in northern Pakistan.

> The Afghani Islamic Party, led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. (Author’s note: Hekmatyar is an Afghan mujahideen warlord who is worked with Osama Bin Laden during the 1990s. US intelligence agencies have lost track of Hekmatyar, but believe that he was trying to join Al Qaeda in 2002 when he released a video message calling for armed jihad against the United States. Reports from BBC-TV and CNN claim that Hekmatyar helped Osama Bin Laden escape from Tora Bora in 2002.

> Islamic Jihad Organization (Egyptian Islamic Jihad). This is perhaps the most startling revelation in the report. Egyptian Islamic Jihad was founded and led by Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, now Al Qaeda’s co-leader. The group is most infamous for the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. Zawahiri is known to have worked in the Al Qaeda organization since its inception, while he was still leader of Egyptian Islamic Jihad in fact. Al Qaeda was started around 1989 and Zawahiri is said to have been a senior member from its earliest days. He was present in Afghanistan with Bin Laden at the time and later he was in Sudan with Bin Laden until being expelled in 1996 and eventually returning to Afghanistan. In 1998, Zawahiri formally merged Egyptian Islamic Jihad with Al Qaeda and has served as co-leader of Al Qaeda ever since. Iraq’s relationship with Egyptian Islamic Jihad was so close that captured documents indicate that Iraq was able to request that the group hold off on operations against the regime in Egypt in 1993.

In other words, Saddam’s Iraq had a longstanding relationship with the co-leader of Al Qaeda.

• A captured memorandum shows that Saddam’s Iraq had an agreement with an Islamist terrorist group to conduct operations against Egypt during the first Gulf War. (Page 16)

• A detailed, captured document from 1993 “illuminated how the outwardly secular Saddam regime found common cause with terrorist groups who drew their inspiration from radical Islam.” (Page 17)

• In January 1993, as the American military’s humanitarian mission was begun in Somalia, Saddam directed that Iraq “form a group to start hunting Americans present on Arab soil, especially Somalia.” (Page 18) Interestingly, Osama Bin Laden was setting up identical operations at the same time.

• Captured Iraqi documents say that the IIS issued passports to known members of terrorist groups. (Page 19)

• Saddam’s Iraq had close ties and provided funding to Hamas, the Palestinian jihadist organization. Captured documents indicate that Hamas offered to carry out attacks for Saddam’s Iraq in return for his support. In fact, Hamas representatives informed the Iraqis that the organization had 35 armed cells around the world hidden among refugees, including in France, Sweden and Denmark. (Pages 24-25).

• Saddam’s IIS manufactured bombs in the early 1990s for terrorist Abu Abbas to conduct attacks against American and other interests. Three instances of these bombs failing are evidently the only thing that prevented terrorist attacks against these interests: (Page 30)

“A bomb intended to destroy the American ambassador’s residence in Jakarta, Indonesia failed.”

“Bombs designed to destroy the American Airlines office and Japanese embassy in the Philippines exploded prematurely and damaged only the front of the office, while killing one and wounding another of the terrorists transporting the explosives.”

• Saddam’s Iraq carried out terrorist attacks on members of humanitarian organizations operating in the Kurdish areas of Northern Iraq, including Doctors Without Borders, Handicap International and UN-affiliated organizations. (Pages 31-33)

• The IIS was willing to reach out to jihadist terrorist groups, including those known to be affiliated with Al Qaeda. This includes the “Army of Muhammad” in Bahrain, which had threatened Kuwaiti authorities and had plans to attack American and Western interests. (Pages 35-36)

• The report concludes with the following question: “Is there anything in the captured archives to indicate that Saddam had the will to use his terrorist capabilities directly against the United States?” The Institute for Defense Analyses then provides the answer:

Yes.

Conclusion

Those who claim that Saddam had no “direct, operational ties” to Al Qaeda are attempting to narrow the definition of “terrorist-sponsoring nation” to an impossible scope. By this definition, a nation, like Saddam’s Iraq, can provide money, arms, safe haven and cooperation to jihadist terrorist groups and not have “direct, operational ties” to terrorists.

This was never the standard by which a nation found itself on the US State Department’s list of terrorist-sponsoring nations and implies that, unless a dictator is found directly ordering a terrorist attack, that dictator cannot be considered as linked to a terrorist group.

The “direct, operational ties” standard was invented after the overthrow of Saddam and is a ridiculous standard that can never be met.

Five years after United States forces overthrew Saddam Hussein, the Pentagon has produced a blockbuster report that has been both misrepresented and ignored. That report shows that Saddam’s Iraq had extensive ties to international terrorist groups, both Islamist and secular, including organizations that were part of Al Qaeda. No ginned up definition invented for domestic political consumption can change the truth.

In the early days of this blog, that article was one of our most popular, perhaps because most folks had no idea that thousands of people had been killed since 2004 in an Islamic insurgency in southern Thailand.

Here we are over two and a half years later and the insurgency in Thailand is still going on. In fact, it’s getting worse. The Thais seem to be trying the same strategy and tactics that have failed elsewhere in the world: appeasement, accommodation and throwing money at the problem after blaming the violence on a bad economy.

The Jihadis are getting more sophisticated. They are making greater use of powerful IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices). This is no coincidence. The terrorists didn’t just wake up one morning and decide to put bombs under and alongside roads. Someone is training them. And if the region is so impoverished, then someone is funding them. Obviously, it follows that someone is providing training as well. All of this after indoctrination in mosques. Thai authorities deny these realities at their peril.

For more background on this, check out our previous posts on the war in southern Thailand…

Particularly note this quote from one of our previous posts:

Note that the Thai Jihadists have never made any public statements since the violence started back in 2004. 4,000 people have been killed in the insurgency, but no demands have been issued and no goals announced. This is classic Jihadist warfare. They are not fighting because they want something from the non-Muslims or the government. They are fighting a war of elimination…

Now compare that to this passage from an article published this week by the Christian Science Monitor:

Among the detainees at the army base was a 30-something Muslim man who gave his name as Amatsydee. Sitting on a bed in his cell, he patiently explained, in passable Thai, that he had been detained because the authorities accuse him of assisting a “group of bad people.”

Asked about the reason for insurgent attacks in the region, “I don’t know how to say it,” he said, looking up at a burly guard standing beside him. “My Thai isn’t very good.”

Anyone else see a pattern here?

Here is the update on the violence in Thailand from the Christian Science Monitor in an article entitled “Muslim insurgency in Thailand’s restive south heats up.”

Many people around the world are unaware of the war that has been raging in the Philippines. At the heart of the violence is the desire of Jihadist terrorist groups such as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah to establish an independent Islamic state ruled by Shariah law on the island of Mindanao.

Along with the Islamic insurgency in southern Thailand, these Asia-Pacific Jihads illustrate the global war we find ourselves in. They also debunk the theory that US foreign policy, presence in the Middle East or support for Israel is the primary reason for Islamic terrorism.

No one can say that the Jihadists are killing innocent civilians in Thailand and the Philippines because the US supports Israel or because the US has troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Wikileaks documents have given us a clear view into just how serious the situation on the Philippines is, as well as the character of the global Islamic threat we face.

• US diplomats characterized the Jihadist terrorism on Mindanao as on a par with the insurgency in Afghanistan.

• US diplomats openly acknowledged in the secret cables leaked by Wikileaks the role Saudi Arabia was playing in funding the Islamic groups in the Philippines and declared that it must be stopped. This is a common theme around the world. Saudis fund Jihad with “private” donations (often from members of the royal family) while the Saudi government looks the other way and denies any support for terrorism. It’s called plausible deniability and the Saudis have been playing this double game for over 30 years. They fund Jihadist terrorism and claim they are our “allies” in the “war on terrorism.”