Actually, a best case scenario has Harper taking Iggy with him when they both high tail it out of the country back to their southerly breeding grounds – it somewaht hilarious because it’s the first election that I’m aware of where “both the two major parties lose to differing degrees and so have to oust their horrible leaders from office out of neccesity” is the best outcome.

I’ve always found the best case or ceiling results on that otherwise excellent site to be unconvincing. Mixing and matching the best result per party from several different polls seems distinctly problematic analytically. There averaging results are much more useful, and indicate same ol’ same ol’. But perhaps I’m a pessimist.

Realistically speaking, any group that can work together can form a government, Black Mage. The Governor General just has to offer it to the group he or she feels is most likely to succeed in doing so.

PaulW: I think MGK hit it on the head in an earlier post: we tend to vote for the most capable bastard. It speaks volumes to the impotence of the current Liberal leadership that we’re able to ignore “contempt of Parliament” and focus ever so slightly on our mainstream fringe option.

As to question 2, well, Chapter 8 will make you forget all about mean ol’ [REDACTED]‘s insane testing. Highly recommend the co-op play as well, as it continues the main story. Also, it’s pure relationship poison.

Plok: Really? I can’t see the Governor General calling ANOTHER election instantly if they offer the Conservatives a chance to form a government, and a coalition forms that swats them down and says ‘we have an actual majority, we will be forming our own government, thank you.’ Instead I see the Governor General saying ‘okay, coalition, YOU form a government.’

Sidebar: How American of me is it that I keep looking at those pie charts and going ‘Hey, the Liberals are doing pretty awesome! I don’t know what everyone is wor- oh. Oh, wait. Dammit!’

But who believes the Liberals and NDP would actually form a coalition with the Bloc? What makes that believable?

I’d half expect a constitutional crisis if the Bloc formed the Opposition, even. The G-G’s fairly inactive in politics, but man…to ask an actual coalition where the second partner’s an avowed seperatist party, to form government? The G-G’s got more latitude than that…!

In regards to Harper’s potential successors: it’s difficult to say. For those who don’t know: the current Conservative Party ia a merger between two other conservative parties. One of them was more socially liberal, and the other is more… well… wingnutty. Stephen Harper is able to balance those elements, but I don’t think that there’s any remaining major player who can say the same. I forsee a compromise candidate of some kind emerging.

If the other parties don’t allow a new Conservative minority to take office, the government would be a Liberal-NDP coalition, with tacit support from the Bloc. But the Bloc wouldn’t be a formal member; they don’t even want to be part of the government (though a surprising number of Quebeckers are open to that idea, showing how far the understanding of the Bloc’s purpose has decayed).

The best part is that there are aspects of Stephen Harper’s political strategy that read like he wishes he could implement the parts of American politics that any sensible person wouldn’t want. Omnibus bills! Constant election mode! Carrying on about socialism! Pretending there are only two parties!

My take, and it’s been my take ever since the Mulroney Tories famously (?) hired some American strategists back in the late 1980s or early 1990s, is that this makes it easier to outsource your thinking. Just read your American politics books, and apply here.

I blame traditionally tame Canadian coverage of domestic politics and history for making the U.S. stuff seem more glamourous.

For three days straight the NDP have eaten up seats in the polls from all three of the other parties that have them. They’re projected to win about 53 seats right now, a historic high, there are about another 11 that are vulnerable to switching over and they’re almost equal to the Liberals in general popularity.

Keep in mind that the 308 projections are /conservative/ in nature.

Someone asked ‘what does all this mean?’

The NDP have been the ‘third option’ in Canadian politics for quite some time. You either vote right or center- NDP is usually pulling policy leftwards in any Parliament or committee they participate in.

They’re usually not taken seriously.

This time, however, they have a leader that did well both in person and on camera, spun the only positive campaign among the major parties and seems to have broken the third-party ceiling.

Both the Liberals and CRAP have a checkered/absolutely corrupt (depends on who you talk to) history when it comes to governing. Both sides have thrown their respective histories at the other in ads and average Canadians, in response, are looking at Jack Layton and wondering what he’d be like with some power.

Now then, people have a habit of polling for the NDP and shirking from that poll when it comes to Election time, sometimes making a difference of up to 8 points nationally between projections and results.

Even so, the NDP stand to make incredible gains for a non-serious third-choice party.