The Conservative government of the prime minister, Stephen Harper, has enjoyed a free hand, conferred as much by the weakness of the opposition as by its own parliamentary majority, but that will change. The Liberals, under the fresh leadership of Justin Trudeau—son of a former prime minister, Pierre Trudeau—will put up a more concerted and effective resistance, especially with the prospect of an election in 2015 to concentrate the mind. Residential investment, an important driver of growth in recent years, will slow (and the resulting housing bubble deflate) but business investment, particularly in extractive industries, will pick up the slack and support economic growth.

To watch: Shale be comin’ round the mountain. Relations with the United States over energy will remain in flux as the shale boom south of the border cuts demand for imported oil, pushing Canada to court alternative markets abroad.