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Monday, February 01, 2010

Season-Long Theme: Backcourt Defense

This edition, being overdue, will be more thorough in its breakdowns than previous posts on this subject.

Let's start with Mike Bibby as he's (relatively) easy to break down in this fashion since he plays point guard exclusively.

Mike Bibby

Def Eff

Poss

w/ Evans

0.25

8

w/ Crawford

0.985

131

w/ Teague & Crawford

1

13

w/ Johnson

1.009

1420

w/ Josh Smith & Horford

1.022

1809

on court

1.042

2319

w/ Josh Smith or Horford

1.071

432

w/ Crawford & Johnson

1.12

739

w/ neither Josh Smith or Horford

1.346

78

w/ Johnson & West

1.353

17

I suspect the explanation for the Hawks allowing 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when Mike Bibby is on the court compared to when he's if off the court is as simple as Bibby playing 78% of his possessions with both Josh Smith and Al Horford on the floor with him.

Joe Johnson

Def Eff

Poss

w/ Teague & Crawford

0.98

102

w/ Crawford & West

1

16

w/ Bibby

1.009

1420

as a 2

1.063

2362

on court

1.075

3216

as a 3

1.103

841

w/ Bibby & Crawford

1.12

739

w/ Crawford

1.139

897

w/ Teague

1.292

24

w/ Bibby & West

1.353

17

Earlier in the season, the Hawks were more effective defensively with Johnson as the biggest of three guards than when he played in a two-guard lineup. That is no longer the case.

For completists only: The Hawks have allowed 9 points on 6 possessions when Johnson has played point guard and 4 points on 4 possessions when Johnson has played power forward.

Jamal Crawford

Def Eff

Poss

w/ Teague & West

0.643

14

w/ Bibby

0.985

131

w/ West

1

32

w/ Johnson & West

1

16

w/ Bibby & Teague

1

13

w/ Teague

1.077

597

as a 2

1.078

1591

on court

1.099

2682

w/ Bibby & Johnson

1.12

739

w/ Evans

1.121

132

as a 1

1.132

1078

w/ Johnson

1.139

897

The Hawks allow 8.8 more points per 100 possessions when Crawford is on the court than when he is off the court. The Hawks score 2.3 more points per 100 possessions when Crawford is on the court than when he is off the court.

It's not a case of Bibby hoarding all the defensive possessions when Horford and Josh Smith are on the floor either. True, only 38% of Crawford's possessions come with both Smith and Horford on the floor but Smith and Horford are significantly worse defensively when Crawford is on the floor with them.

Josh Smith and Horford

Def Eff

Poss

w/o Crawford

0.996

1265

w/ Crawford

1.088

1029

This is why, despite his good season, I didn't take his All-Star case seriously.

Jamal Crawford

Def Eff

Poss

w/ Josh Smith & Horford

1.088

1029

w/ Josh Smith or Horford

1.095

958

w/ neither Josh Smith or Horford

1.121

695

In the minutes he's gotten, Jeff Teague (both by eye and by these numbers) has demonstrated some defensive talent. I suspect that will bode well for him next year as he should begin the process of replacing Mike Bibby at the point.

Jeff Teague

Def Eff

Poss

w/ Crawford & West

0.643

14

w/ Evans

0.774

31

w/ Crawford & Johnson

0.98

102

w/ Bibby & Crawford

1

13

on court

1.049

804

w/ Crawford

1.077

597

w/ West

1.143

14

w/ Johnson

1.292

24

All the Mo Evans combinations appear in the tables above. To refrain from redundancy, I'll simple provide his defensive work by position.

Mo Evans

Def Eff

Poss

as a 2

1.023

176

on court

1.12

1367

as a 3

1.133

1144

as a 4

1.152

46

There's a discrepancy of 1 possession between the on court and the positional breakdown but I can't find it in the 143* different 5-man units the Hawks have used so far this season.

*Maybe there are, in fact, 144 different 5-man units the Hawks have used so far this season.

Mario West

Def Eff

Poss

on court

1.043

94

off court

1.068

4099

The numbers don't lie.

Below are a couple of tables that don't fall under the category of "backcourt defense" but I'll include in this post as I still have the master spreadsheet (which will be out-of-date again in 36 hours) open.

First, Marvin Williams by position:

Marvin Williams

Def Eff

Poss

as a 3

1.02

2123

on court

1.034

2503

as a 4

1.11

375

The Hawks allowed 4 points on 3 possessions with Marvin at center and 4 points on 2 possessions with Marvin playing alongside one guard, Joe Smith, Horford, and Pachulia.

Finally, the various post combinations:

Name

Def Eff

Poss

Horford & Pachulia

0.941

205

Josh Smith & Horford

1.042

2350

Team

1.068

4193

Joe Smith & Horford

1.11

164

Josh Smith & Pachulia

1.115

462

Joe Smith & Pachulia

1.212

339

The Hawks are allowing 0.975 points per possession with Jason Collins on the floor. 82 of the 122 possessions for which Collins has been on the floor have also featured Randolph Morris and/or Othello Hunter. Sounds like garbage time to me.

Jason Collins

Def Eff

Poss

garbage time

0.926

82

not garbage time

1.075

40

Questions, comments, and corrections welcome as always from those of you who've made it this far.

7 comments:

It's interesting to the difference between Bibby and Crawford on the court, since neither of them is a very good defensive player. Bibby ends up looking like a good defensive player through his on/off breakdown as a result.

It's also nice to see how good the Hawks defend with Marvin Williams at the three. It's such a shame that so many late game situations see us using Crawford with Bibby and JJ to the exclusion of Marvin.

I don't know if you've got this in your breakdown or not, but I'd be interested to see just how many minutes Crawford spends with Marvin at the 3, rather than Moe Evans or JJ. I suspect that might be having a larger effect on his defensive efficiency than the minutes he plays with Smith and Horford. Marvin is our only plus defender at the 3.

* Crawford's defense on-off court discrepancy is aweful. I just calculated Joe's defense without crawford and it looks like his defense takes a nosedive 8.9 pts when Crawford is with him. Part of that has to be because JJ plays 3.

* Teague's defense is probably much better than these numbers show, because he plays with Craw most of the way and Joe seems to sleep walk when he is with Teague (1.292 Yak!). It looks like Teague has the physical ability to play all NBA defense. Mentally, who knows.

So it's clearly a factor, even though Crawford is still dragging down the defense. /w Marvin, that's right at the Hawks' season average, but without him (or playing him out of position), it's among the worst in the league.

So nice when the numbers back up your sentiment about Crawford: when he's not making shots, he's a detriment on the floor.