National Election Pool General Election Exit Polls, 2004 (ICPSR 4181)

Election data for 50 states and the District of Columbia
were collected through interviews conducted with voters as they left
their polling places on election day, November 7, 2004. The Oregon
election data were collected solely through pre-election telephone
interviews because voting in that state was conducted entirely by
mail. Part 1, Combined Data, is an aggregate of all of the other
datasets in this collection. Part 2, National Data, contains data
collected from a national sample. National sample respondents were
asked a series of questions about their electoral choices, the issues
surrounding the elections, and the factors that influenced their
decisions. Questions focused on the direction of the country, national
security, terrorism, the war in Iraq, the state and future of the
nation's economy, gay marriage, and the George W. Bush
presidency. Background information on national respondents includes
age, race, gender, Hispanic descent, sexual orientation, age of
children in household, marital status, political party, political
orientation, employment status, education, religion, and family
income. Parts 3-53 contain data collected from the individual state
and District of Columbia surveys. Telephone surveys were conducted
with absentee/early voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida,
Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee,
Texas, and Washington State. Respondents were asked for their opinions
of President George Bush, presidential candidate John Kerry, and the
United States Congress, as well as for their vote choices in the
relevant gubernatorial, senatorial, and congressional elections. Those
queried were also asked whether they supported state-specific
proposals, such as state funding of stem-cell research in California
and defining marriage only as a union between a man and a woman in
several states. Background information on individual state respondents
includes age, race, gender, education, voter participation history,
political party, political orientation, and family income.

Election data for 50 states and the District of Columbia
were collected through interviews conducted with voters as they left
their polling places on election day, November 7, 2004. The Oregon
election data were collected solely through pre-election telephone
interviews because voting in that state was conducted entirely by
mail. Part 1, Combined Data, is an aggregate of all of the other
datasets in this collection. Part 2, National Data, contains data
collected from a national sample. National sample respondents were
asked a series of questions about their electoral choices, the issues
surrounding the elections, and the factors that influenced their
decisions. Questions focused on the direction of the country, national
security, terrorism, the war in Iraq, the state and future of the
nation's economy, gay marriage, and the George W. Bush
presidency. Background information on national respondents includes
age, race, gender, Hispanic descent, sexual orientation, age of
children in household, marital status, political party, political
orientation, employment status, education, religion, and family
income. Parts 3-53 contain data collected from the individual state
and District of Columbia surveys. Telephone surveys were conducted
with absentee/early voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida,
Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee,
Texas, and Washington State. Respondents were asked for their opinions
of President George Bush, presidential candidate John Kerry, and the
United States Congress, as well as for their vote choices in the
relevant gubernatorial, senatorial, and congressional elections. Those
queried were also asked whether they supported state-specific
proposals, such as state funding of stem-cell research in California
and defining marriage only as a union between a man and a woman in
several states. Background information on individual state respondents
includes age, race, gender, education, voter participation history,
political party, political orientation, and family income.

Respondent weights are included with each data
file. These values can be found under the variable name WGT in all of
the data files in this collection, with the exception of the combined
data, where this value can be found under the variable name
XSWGT. These weights should be applied in all analyses. Unweighted
tabulations will be seriously misleading and should not be used.

Universe:
Voters casting a ballot in the 2004 United States general
election.

Data Type(s):
event/transaction data,
survey data

Data Collection Notes:

Respondent weights are included with each data
file. These values can be found under the variable name WGT in all of
the data files in this collection, with the exception of the combined
data, where this value can be found under the variable name
XSWGT. These weights should be applied in all analyses. Unweighted
tabulations will be seriously misleading and should not be used.

Methodology

Sample:
The statewide samples were selected in two stages. First,
a probability sample of voting precincts within each state was
selected that represented the different geographic areas across the
state and the vote by party. Second, within each precinct, voters were
sampled systematically throughout the voting day at a rate that gave
all voters in a precinct the same chance of being interviewed. The
national sample is a subsample of the statewide sample precincts.
Pre-election telephone interviews were conducted in 12 states with
large populations of absentee and early voters and in Oregon, where
voting is conducted entirely by mail. The samples for the telephone
interviews were selected using random-digit dialing (RDD) in these
12 states. Absentee or early voters were asked the same questions
asked at the polling place on election day. On election day, the
results from the absentee/early voter telephone surveys were combined
with the data from the exit polls so as to ensure that those two
groups were represented in the data in the same proportion as in the
actual vote totals. The Oregon sample was a dual frame design using
both registration lists and RDD sampling. An RDD sample of Oregon
telephone numbers was selected. Any telephone number already on the
registration list was eliminated from the RDD sample. The result was a
dual frame design that represented every voter in the state of Oregon
with a land-line telephone only once. Individuals were selected by
name from the registration list. This part of the sample was 622
interviews, while 280 interviews were completed from the RDD
portion. Each RDD residential number represented a household. One
individual was selected at random within each RDD household. The
relative size of these two groups are estimated from the registration
list.

Time Method:
Longitudinal: Trend / Repeated Cross-section

Data Source:

personal interviews and telephone interviews

Restrictions: This data collection may not be used for any purpose other
than statistical reporting and analysis. Use of these data to learn the
identity of any person or establishment is prohibited.