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US to become biggest oil producer by 2020

Oil and gas boom puts US on track for energy independence
LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer before 2020, and will be energy independent 10 years later, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.
The recent resurgence in oil and gas production, and efforts to make the transport sector more efficient, are radically reshaping the nation's energy market, reported Paris-based IEA in its World Energy Outlook.
North America would become a net exporter of oil around 2030, the global organization said Monday.
"The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self sufficient in net terms -- a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," the IEA stated.
The U.S. is experiencing an oil boom, in large part thanks to high world prices and new technologies, including hydraulic fracking, that have made the extraction of oil and gas from shale rock commercially viable.
From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas production is up by about 10% over the same period.
Related: the facts about oil and gas under Obama
According to the IEA, U.S. natural gas prices will rise to $5.5 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in 2020, from around $3.5 per MBtu this year, driven by rising domestic demand rather than a forecast increase in exports to Asia and other markets."In our projections, 93% of the natural gas produced in the United States remains available to meet domestic demand," it said. "Exports on the scale that we project would not play a large role in domestic price setting."
North America's new role in the world energy markets will accelerate a change in the direction of international oil trade toward Asia, and underscore the importance of securing supply routes from the Middle East to China and India.

The IEA said it expects global energy demand to increase by more than a third by 2035, with China, India and the Middle East accounting for 60% of the growth, and more than outweighing reduced demand in developed economies.
That will push world average oil import prices up to $125 per barrel (in 2011 dollars) by 2035, from around $100 per barrel at present, but they could be much higher if Iraq fails to deliver on its production potential.
Iraq is set to become the second largest oil exporter by the 2030s, as it expands output to take advantage of demand from fast growing Asian economies.
Related: Iraq oil output to double by 2020
New fuel economy standards in the U.S. and efforts by China, Japan and the European Union to reduce demand would help to make up for a disappointing decade for global energy efficiency.
"But even with these and other new policies in place, a significant share of the potential to improve energy efficiency -- four-fifths of the potential in the buildings sector and more than half in industry -- still remains untapped," the IEA stated.
Policymakers are still missing out on potential benefits for energy security, economic growth and the environment.
Growth in demand over the years to 2035 would be halved and oil demand would peak just before 2020, if governments took action to remove barriers preventing the implementation of energy efficiency measures that are already economically viable, the global organization said.

Part of me thinks great and the other part thinks holy **** we are going to use how much fossil fuels. I hope I am dead before the apocalypse. Unless its a zombie apocalypse, cause for some strange reason I feel real prepared for that.

But seriously is the fact that prices are rising what makes this viable these days?

Originally Posted by MrPoon

man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

Do we really only see a 25% price increase in oil over the next 20 years. Weren't crude barrels like 30 bucks in the nineties?

Depends on what kind of policies we see. With the election I think we'll see Oil go up. In my opinion it's because of Bush and now Obama's policy of devaluing the dollar. If we had a stronger dollar price would go down.

Depends on what kind of policies we see. With the election I think we'll see Oil go up. In my opinion it's because of Bush and now Obama's policy of devaluing the dollar. If we had a stronger dollar price would go down.

Not really. While I agree with your conclusion that oil will go up, in my opinion, it has more to do with an increase on the international demand side of this equation.

BTW, to me, the only real energy independence is that which is based on non exportable energy. Once oil/gas is taken out of the ground, it belongs to the stock holders of the company that took it. It will then flow to the most profitable place, meaning who will pay the most. That is not necessarily here.

Here is the question of the day, does anyone think that wealthy people should pay a lower percentage of their income to taxes than middle class people? Don't argue tax brackets, just a simple question. Do you think someone earning 46 million dollars should pay a lower percentage of their income than say someone earning sixty thousand?

It's funny that the republicans coined "Drill Baby Drill" and democrats bashed it and felt a victory with the 08 Obama win, but he just continued to open domestic drilling. The pendulum doesn't swing as far as pretend it does.

Can't help but wonder if this all has more to do with our inability to take over the middle east as much as we'd liked to.

I just hope we start supplementing this gross consumption with something cleaner. Seems to be taking far too long for us to catch on, though we have the most room for solar, wind, etc.

It's funny that the republicans coined "Drill Baby Drill" and democrats bashed it and felt a victory with the 08 Obama win, but he just continued to open domestic drilling. The pendulum doesn't swing as far as pretend it does.

Can't help but wonder if this all has more to do with our inability to take over the middle east as much as we'd liked to.

I just hope we start supplementing this gross consumption with something cleaner. Seems to be taking far too long for us to catch on, though we have the most room for solar, wind, etc.

Don't be a glass half empty kind of guy. While your statements are correct as stated, they fail to see improvements in cleaner energy, conservation, mpg standards, etc. I have read tons about the solar plants that are being approved built here. More wind energy is another area. This will be incremental. Right now, fossil fuels are the best fuels for mobile use, but given time, that will change too.

Here is the question of the day, does anyone think that wealthy people should pay a lower percentage of their income to taxes than middle class people? Don't argue tax brackets, just a simple question. Do you think someone earning 46 million dollars should pay a lower percentage of their income than say someone earning sixty thousand?

Don't be a glass half empty kind of guy. While your statements are correct as stated, they fail to see improvements in cleaner energy, conservation, mpg standards, etc. I have read tons about the solar plants that are being approved built here. More wind energy is another area. This will be incremental. Right now, fossil fuels are the best fuels for mobile use, but given time, that will change too.

Given our size and resources I'd like to see a stronger commitment, like we see in some areas of Europe. Our nation is a resource pig right now and it'd be nice if we lead the way in clean energy instead of this sllllooooow process of policy change. We're on the right track at the wrong speed.

Depends on what kind of policies we see. With the election I think we'll see Oil go up. In my opinion it's because of Bush and now Obama's policy of devaluing the dollar. If we had a stronger dollar price would go down.

I just looked at some charts that controlled for the price of the dollar. They were in 2010 or 2011 dollars... That should eliminate monetary policy right?

Originally Posted by MrPoon

man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

I just looked at some charts that controlled for the price of the dollar. They were in 2010 or 2011 dollars... That should eliminate monetary policy right?

Yea they are in 2011 dollars, but in 2030 it doesn't appear to be expected to grow much in terms of 2011 dollars. It def will be less than inflation.

Oil is funny. Yea we had a big ramp up, do to speculators middle east control, devaluing dollar and taxes. But when factored over the last 100 years oil really didn't keep up with inflation. It just happened so quick which was a factor in my opinion of hurting the economy.

Yea they are in 2011 dollars, but in 2030 it doesn't appear to be expected to grow much in terms of 2011 dollars. It def will be less than inflation.

Oil is funny. Yea we had a big ramp up, do to speculators middle east control, devaluing dollar and taxes. But when factored over the last 100 years oil really didn't keep up with inflation. It just happened so quick which was a factor in my opinion of hurting the economy.

But as we use more an more difficult methods to get at oil (oil shale for example) doesn't the price have to rise to make that profitable. I would assume this is partially why we are going to have such predicted growth in this industry.

Originally Posted by MrPoon

man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

But as we use more an more difficult methods to get at oil (oil shale for example) doesn't the price have to rise to make that profitable. I would assume this is partially why we are going to have such predicted growth in this industry.

Honestly not sure on that. Don't know the exact costs associated on the different ways of oil extraction. I would think they wouldn't tap into the higher cost ones till they either have too, or the price was high enough to cover them.