Possible Implications of America's Shut Down

The United States federal government began partial shutdown
at midnight Friday after Senate Democrats voted to block a bill over
immigration and spending.

A measure to fund the government until the middle of
February was passed in the House of Representatives on Thursday. But the
Republican-led Senate was unable to sway enough Democrats to vote for the bill
that would have kept agencies open.

The shutdown comes after the collapse of bipartisan talks on
a US spending bill that hinged on continued protections under the DACA
programme for undocumented immigrants, which Democrats support.

It would deliver a "direct and indirect impact" on
the US economy, Beth Ann Bovino, a senior economist at financial ratings agency
Standard and Poor's (S&P), told Al Jazeera.

The last shutdown was in 2013 and lasted 16 days.

What's the direct impact?

The direct impact, Bovino explained, would be an immediate
loss of productivity from about 700,000 government employees deemed
"nonessential".

These workers will be "furloughed", meaning they
will be put on leave until the government resumes functioning.

While there is no guarantee government workers will be paid
for this leave, historically they have been paid retroactively in the case of a
shutdown.

Even if they are paid, the US government will experience
"lost productivity" from almost a million people, Bovino said.

The time spent not working on ongoing initiatives will
"never come back", the economist continued.

How will people be affected?

National parks, museums and monuments are expected to shut
down, as will the processing of passports and visas if the shutdown continues
beyond a few days.

This will impact tourism. National parks in the west and the
Smithsonian Institute museums in the east will not open to the public.

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Another indirect loss will be to contractors - government
employees are not the only ones waiting for a paycheck from Uncle Sam.

Over $43bn has been awarded in contracts for the fiscal year
2018, according to government figures.

None of this money will be paid as long as the shutdown
continues. That will remove a fair amount of money from the pockets of private
citizens throughout the country.

Retail sales would drop.

"It's not quite the height of the holiday season, so
that suggests the impact would be less severe. However, when we look at holiday
sales, they continue into January," Bovino said.

Which government services would continue?

Those related to national security and domestic safety,
including the military, law enforcement and air traffic control.

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Certain entitlements, such as hospitals for veterans
administered by the government and food stamps for families in need, would be
unaffected.

Federal courts, where the Trump administration is currently
battling an order to undo his decision to end the DACA programme, will continue
but are subject to disruption.

How long will it last?

In the case of the 16-day 2013 shutdown, Republicans and
Democrats were at odds over funding then-President Obama's landmark healthcare
law, known as Obamacare, and the US "debt ceiling," which allows the
US Treasury to continue borrowing to pay debts.

There was a 27-day shutdown from December 1995 to January
1996, resulting from a clash between Republicans and Democrats over funding a
health insurance programme for the elderly. That came a month after a November
shutdown that lasted four days.

Before these examples, shutdowns were rare.

The US government typically only experienced funding gaps
over the weekend, not impacting the economy in any major way, according to data
from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think-tank in
Washington, DC.

How much will it hurt the US economy?

The 2013 shutdown cost the US economy $24bn, according to
estimates from S&P. While costly, GDP was over $16 trillion that year.

The firm estimates a shutdown would cost the US economy
about $6bn per week in 2018.

Any losses this early in the year could be regained later,
Bovino said.

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Ambassador T. Brikins is a Writer Blogger, Mass Communications Consultant and Inforpreneur having experiences in the National News Media, Oil and Gas, Administration, University and the Church of Christ..
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He is an ordained Minister and heavily imparted by Dr. David Oyedepo, Pastor E.A.Adeboye, Rev.Roselyn Oduyemi, Kenneth Copeland,Dr. D.Yongi Cho, Apostle Alex Bamgbola, Kenneth E. Hagin, Apostle G. Oduyemi, Archbishop Benson Idahosa, T.L. Osborn,Dr. E.W. Kenyon , Oral Roberts and many more.
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