Walk like a man, talk like a man and think like a man who remembers seeing The Beatles on Ed Sullivan — live. That’s what it takes to predict this year’s Oscar race with any hope of accuracy because with an average age of 62 and a 77 per cent male membership, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a far cry from a random sample of the general population.

If anything, the organization’s 5,856 voting members represent a buttery layer of showbiz Devon cream — affluent and powerful people who are largely insulated from the world’s woes, but feel a latent surge of humanitarian largesse when it comes to recognizing the downtrodden, the invisible and the spiritually gifted African-American martyr.

So even if the pundits are calling 2013 the hardest year in Oscar history to predict with yesterday’s front-runner, Lincoln, suddenly looking like tomorrow’s also-ran, there’s a good chance the Academy’s old boy network will prove its potency once more and deliver an Oscar show that feels oddly out of sync with the real world.

Best Picture:

Remember back in January, amid the glow of post-nomination euphoria, Lincoln looked like a lock for a best picture win as a result of its pack-leading 12 nominations?

For director Steven Spielberg, who’s always had a spotty relationship with the institution that’s snubbed him several times before (earning best picture nods for The Color Purple, Jaws and War Horse, but no best director nominations to match), the last month of Oscar campaigning must have felt a little deja-vu as Argo galloped onto the inside track.

For most Oscar watchers, the race remains between Lincoln and Argo — but there are seven other contenders, including such worthy titles as Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, Ang Lee’s Life of Pi, Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables and David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook.

If we think like a 62-year-old man, however, Les Mis is a non-starter (too melodramatic and girlie), Life of Pi will sink (no acting nods to give it buoyancy), Zero Dark Thirty will be off the radar (Bigelow didn’t get a nod, and the movie is mired in torture controversy that makes America look bad) and Silver Linings Playbook will fold (too weird to represent American culture to the world). Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour and Django Unchained should just be honoured they were in contention.

Who Will Win: Argo, because it reaffirms the self-created fantasy of manly American heroism and gives Hollywood a starring role in the denouement. As last year’s win for The Artist proved, Hollywood loves its close-ups, and Argo gave showbiz the starring role.

Who Should Win: Scene for scene, Michael Haneke’s Amour is the most accomplished and confident picture in the running, proving the veteran Austrian director’s skills have never been sharper. But the movie is about death and dying, and it’s in French without a single tip of the chapeau to Tinseltown. They will give it best foreign film honours as consolation prize.

Emmanuelle Riva in Michael Haneke’s Amour.

Best Director:

Out of the five fellas waiting to skip up the steps to the podium, Spielberg may still be the front-runner — but only by default because Ben Affleck didn’t get a nod for Argo. However, the man behind E.T. and Jaws still carries a stigma with the snobby Academy. Some members still see him as a little too popcorn and schmaltz to win such a prestigious award, despite his previous best-director wins for Saving Private Ryan and Schindler’s List.

Who Will Win: Michael Haneke, because he’s in the same demographic as the majority of the Academy members and chances are, he’s never going to get another shot at Oscar glory. Also, without a single sentimental favourite wooing the wishy-washy, voters may actually go for the director who created the most complete world and delivered it to the viewer with elegance, grace and technical mastery.

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke, because Amour was a soul-crushing success as it played out life’s final chapter without sentimental dreck or overdone moments.

Best Actor:

You’d think anyone who was playing a U.S. president would automatically be a front-runner given the dimensions of the role, but out of eight previous nominations — including two for Anthony Hopkins, who played Richard Nixon (Nixon) and John Quincy Adams (Amistad) — not a single actor who pretended to sit in the Oval Office walked away with hardware.

For Academy darling Daniel Day-Lewis, Oscar history may be too much to overcome, no matter how well he inhabited the oversized shoes of the 16th president, Abraham Lincoln.

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. History-shmistory. Even if Lincoln was a dreary bore, everyone agrees the two-time Oscar champion, Day-Lewis, was the best thing about it.

Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman. Say what you will about Les Miserables, Jackman brought heart, body, soul and a fantastic singing voice to his heartbreaking performance as Jean Valjean, a man who learned the meaning of life doesn’t lie in grand revolutions, but in small human actions focused on love.

Hugh Jackman, right, with Isabelle Allen in Les Miserables.

Best Actress:

Despite the incredible field of contenders, 2012 wasn’t a great year for female parts. Even Meryl Streep was forced into a throwaway role in Hope Springs. That said, this year’s race is between Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty and Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, because if you think like a 62-year-old man, Lawrence’s portrayal of a sexy, substance addicted widow who stalks an unbalanced and unpredictable outsider with emotional problems is a lot hotter than a smarty-pants CIA agent who sasses her superiors.

Besides, Lawrence is partly responsible for Hollywood’s record-breaking box office receipts as the star of the Hunger Games franchise. And money doesn’t just talk in Hollywood, it screams.

Who Should Win: Naomi Watts, for her incredible turn as a mother desperate to stay alive and save her children in The Impossible. Watts showed us the messianic force of a mother’s love when everything else has been washed away.

Best Supporting Actor:

Of all the categories in this year’s race, this is probably the most competitive with every contender already owning an Oscar of their very own. With all things being equal, we have to think like the average Academy voter and go with the candidate who best embodies our own experience.

The only problem is, Alan Arkin picked up an Oscar a few years back, and his role in Argo didn’t offer any arc of transformation, which leaves the race between sentimental favourites Robert De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones.

Who Will Win: Robert De Niro, because as the patriarch in Silver Linings Playbook, the raging thespian bull showed a softer, gentler and far more loving side than he’s ever shown before. And he made it look easy.

Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, because without him balancing Joaquin Phoenix’s freakishly creepy presence with his own freakish charm, The Master would have been more unwatchable than it already is.

Helen Hunt in The Sessions.

Best Supporting Actress:

If we think like an older man with privileged grandchildren, Anne Hathaway’s goody-two-shoes routine doesn’t look completely contrived and irritating. It looks cute and confident, which is why the woman who rivalled Jodie Foster for clunkiest awards-show moment of the year will probably walk away the winner.

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway for her role as Fantine, the martyred mother-hooker who had a dream in Les Miserables.

Who Should Win: Helen Hunt, for fearlessly throwing herself between the sheets in The Sessions. If only she had played a real hooker instead of a “sex surrogate,” she could have had a real shot at the money.