The power of social media

The subject of who won the February 18 election seems to be settled among supporters of Dr. Kizza Besigye. They believe their candidate won.

I have also met supporters of President Yoweri Museveni who suspect Besigye’s claims to hold some water. When your opponent sows seeds of doubt among your supporters, then you know he is either right or has won the war of public perception.

There is a lot of evidence of electoral malpractice: the delay to deliver ballot papers in many parts of Kampala where Besigye had strong support, the way the EC announced results, the deployment of police and army around Kampala, alleged ballot stuffing, 100% voter turnout at some polling stations in Museveni’s home district, etc. Nowhere are claims of electoral theft more convincing than when they make use of (and abuse) obvious facts. However, proof of electoral malpractices alone does not mean the beneficiary would have lost without them.

Electoral fraud tends to favour the strong. It only increases their margins rather than creating their victory. That is why in spite of malpractices, Museveni lost in Gulu, Amuru, Lira, Kampala, Wakiso, Kasese, Tororo, Rukungiri, etc. However, electoral malpractices undermine public faith in the electoral process.

In a charged and distrustful political climate, they provide considerable grist to the opposition mill. Even without any malpractices on polling day, Besigye and his supporters would NEVER have accepted a Museveni victory.

The malpractices only added ammunition to justify their bias. To them Besigye won long before polling day, balloting was not about selecting a winner but recognising his victory. If balloting did not confirm Besigye’s victory, then it would have proved Museveni’s theft. And how did Besigye and his supporters arrive at the conclusion that they had won before polling? By “reading the national mood.”

This despite all opinion polls (including one by Besigye’s openly declared supporter and ally, Patrick Wakida of ResearchWorld International) showing Museveni winning in the first round by anything between 51% and 70% and Besigye trailing at 28% to 32%.

Besigye’s supporters claimed that there was a “fear factor.” But how could Besigye’s supporters have the courage to brave police harassment and walk long distances to attend his rallies, openly hand him money, goats and chicken at these rallies and even throw stones at the police but fear to tell pollsters what they were doing in public? The lesson is that people create their own reality. This is a result of the power of one’s communication.

Even before the election, Besigye’s much touted strength was questionable. His party fielded parliamentary candidates in only 201 of the 290 geographical constituencies, in only 61 out of 112 positions of womenMP, 43 out of 112 district chairpersons, 536 out of 1,403 sub county chairperson positions, 1,123 candidates against NRM’s 6,663 in sub county women councilors, 2,049 candidates against NRM’s 7,303 in sub county councilor positions – the list goes on and on.

11 comments

” So they sought shelter in the state in order to rig. But rigging cannot work for the weak. They lost in Kampala and Wakiso in spite of delayed delivery of ballot papers.” Mwenda, no one is saying that Museveni was weak, but he was not strong enough to garner 50% +1. And in this article you have not tackled the mess in the tallying process. I also read from you that UPC never rigged the 1980 elections, am I wrong or right?

Besigye lost in the ballot, let him try other means and will get opposite of what he wants. Like Tamale Mirundi, I am of the opinion that they should let him move in the city centre as he wishes and if his people loot, he be made to pay by confiscation of his property and that of Winnie Byanyima (the remote controller). It is because a mob has not dealt with his property that he is fooling around with people’s hard earned property. But if the government wants to play games, it is fine but hurting people. People have a way of devising means to survive but the government (not Besigye) is the one charged with protection. Or chase him out of Kampala. It is easy.

Am always wondering how a caring leader, professional Dr, Patriot and People’s President has not even set up a private clinic to at least treat at a cost if free treatment to the needy is so difficult. Yet he can find means, resources, etc to invest in oil and real estate.

1.The good thing with Social media critics like TVO is that they get exhausted while posting useless comments. what haven’t they said about the 1st Family?with time one gets used to insults.
2. I dont know y the CJ was so patient with Mbabazi’s Lawyers they had no evidence but he kept on entertaining their stories one lawyer from Busoga even had the nerve to explain the disadvantages of using IDs during voting.
3.KB is now govt property he should be thankful that govt is providing him with security enemies of the state can easily assassinate him & the blame will be put on govt may be thats what he wants.
4.I thought poor guys r supposed to be humble but in Ug they r wild.
5. Sections of the Ugandan society r trying so hard to cause chaos it does not take 10 minutes to be like Burundi or Somalia so better watch out

Winnie,
1. TVO like the karoli he is, feeds on rubbish. When it is less, he has nothing to brodcast.
2. The CJ was is by training supposed to be long-suffering and obliged to hear the other side no matter the nonsense they submit. As for the lawyers, they just fleece JPAM (not him really but his sponsors).
3. If KB continues to lose (in polls and street) they are going to drop him like a hot potato(I mean all parties; sponsors,fans and pusheresses) and proceed with a less boring project.
4. Like you said our city poor are indeed humble but it is the less than 1% who act hooligan and hope to loot bread and money as per principal’s promises.
5. The chaos causers are known and if they manage to make it start they will be the first victims I can promise you that.

[In many ways it was a replay of December 10, 1980. Democratic Party officials saw their candidates across Buganda and Busoga trouncing UPC candidates by margins of nine to one.]
After so many years, decades of denials that UPC never won the 1980 plebiscite now people like Mwenda have been forced to face the truth. Except that unlike todays elections which are/were conducted under NRM which have been roundly discredited, the 1980’s polls held under UPC, were judged by the majority observers to have been credible and met the standard of fairness and openness. As if to add insult to injury the protagonist in this everlasting melodrama, Mu7, himself in the 1980 elections, which he claimed were rigged, lost. So just as the civil war of 1980’s was fought on spurious reasons the current so-called election victories of last three odd decades by NRM are shams. One person is only able to fool so many people so many times by exploiting a Uganda riddled and divided by multiplicity of ethno-nationalisms.

I have said time and again that it is waste of energy and fruitless effort to attempt to hammer some sense into your likes. The 1980 elections were rigged and even riggers admit it. This 2016 was the cleanest and most accurate Uganda has ever had. Only an idiot like you can stand and claim that more than 100 constituencies where you did not have a candidate, you were cheated/rigged/harassed blah blah blah. Wish we had a market for fools, I would trace you and sell you.

Let the state & police declare, if anyone is caught stealing people’s property during a procession,he should be stoned to death.
Police should leave KB to come to the city, i don’t think he will have that popularity even after 2 days.You mean its Ugandans who have time to accompany him every day when his real estate & oil businesses are flourishing ???What will they eat?
They should accept Mzee won them , hands down.Of the 112 districts he won 80.Yet he even poached some votes in those he lost.

This is a very lopsided analysis. Ever since 1986 the popularity of the big man has been dropping. When tested on a scientific platform you will see clearly there was no way 60% could vote for the OMWAH. His victory phyrric and empty. These propaganda will not work. Toa bus yako.