PM Update: Light freezing rain overnight

By
Ian Livingston

Winter weather advisories midnight thru noon Tues

updated at 8:45 p.m.

It's been a cold, cloudy and dreary day around here. The first wave of precipitation is expected to arrive tonight and continue into tomorrow. While we're only expecting light precipitation with this batch, it does not take much freezing rain to cause a problem, and the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight 'til noon tomorrow (excluding now including southern suburbs).

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: The risk for precipitation goes up this evening, and it could start as a very few snowflakes before quickly transitioning to light sleet and freezing rain. The predominant type of precipitation overnight should be freezing rain until well north of the city where more sleet is possible. Either way, it looks quite scant (a few hundredths of an inch). Though widespread major problems aren't expected, some slick spots are pretty likely -- plan accordingly overnight and early morning. Lows fall to the mid-20s in the colder suburbs to nearer 30 downtown.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Watch out for some light freezing rain or drizzle early tomorrow morning, even very small amounts can cause driving (and biking/walking) headaches. Most of the day looks fairly dry, yet I would not be shocked to see some periods of drizzle throughout. While locations well north and west of D.C. could hover closer to freezing, most highs reach the mid-30s. Another slug of moisture arrives late day as the large storm to the west approaches. See Jason's earlier post for more on that.

Weekend threat? As with anything else in this range, there is plenty of uncertainty regarding this event. But, the Global Forecast System (GFS) has consistently shown a low pressure moving off/up the East Coast late Friday into Saturday (when it would impact us). The European model has been less consistent, but today's midday run showed a considerable amount of moisture (near 1" liquid) from D.C. and to the east. The biggest issue for snow lovers? Temperatures. They seem mild at this point, so it could end up mainly or all rain. However, in somewhat similar fashion to last Wednesday, the mid-and-upper level setup leaves room for a snowier outcome.

Ack, they are hitting refresh on us, Ian!
In other news, dear readers who are well plugged-in, did you all at least see the proactive email sent out by OPM regarding possible upcoming OPM status changes? Pretty good, right?

By the way, the GFS actually pumps out snow for the weekend system and has for a few runs. The Euro is quite a bit warmer though. It's another "thread the needle" and the +NAO won't help too much... I'll keep my fingers crossed for snow lover like myself.

greg, here is observed and ensemble forecast going forward. It looks like they are trying to dive back toward neutral around the time of the storm. Neutral seems to be better for precip lately than extreme -NAO. But in general we have better odds for snow when there is a -NAO.

I am not a Federal worker but I did read last year that "Closing the federal government for one day costs taxpayers roughly $100 million in lost productivity." I am just stating a fact and not making any judgements. ))

I don't understand the point of the federal-worker comment. My husband works for the federal govt and is lucky in that he can telework when the weather is a wintry mess. Last year, during the blizzards, he worked and worked--probably getting more done than he would have at the office. And if the Metro can't handle the weather, there's no way people can get to work, so what do you want the govt to do?

NOOOOO!!!!! CWG, does it look like the weekend storm will have mostly a Friday or a Saturday impact?

99.9% I am the biggest snow lover in the DC Metro area, but Saturday morning at 9 a.m. I am booked on a flight to the sunny Caribbean. If my already too short trip get cut any shorter I will be VERY bummed!

CWG, I have been an avid reader of your blog since last winter, thanks for all the hard work you do! I am due with my first child in the next week (or so) and even though I don't know exactly when my baby will come, it gives me peace of mind knowing what to expect weather-wise (though I admit seeing possible ice/sleet/freezing rain in the forecast makes me a little nervous!). You guys are awesome!

chrisduckworth, freezing rain is liquid rain that freezes on contact when surface temperatures are at or below freezing. Sleet is snow that melts into liquid but falls through a thick enough freezing layer near the ground to refreeze into little ice balls.

I think the point that @GtownG was trying to make excluded Federal Workers who telecommuted. There are a lot of Federal workers that do not have the means or are not approved to telework, these are the folks I believe were included in the $ figure that @GtownG provided.

I think the point that @GtownG was trying to make excluded Federal Workers who telecommuted. There are a lot of Federal workers that do not have the means or are not approved to telework, these are the folks I believe were included in the $ figure that @GtownG provided.

Actually, I am fairly certain that the $100 million figure assumes that the government is completely shut down that day and does not take into account people who telework, which is why it is a completely inaccurate number.

And to any Sur Palka fans here...i mean no offense..im only playing around..

Yes i know she is a trained meteorolgist and is a major newcast forecaster..

However .if you are ate up like me and PAY attention to her forecast you can read between the lines and tell she is very anti snow for some reason..maby its her personallity..who knows..but during the last storm she acted like it broke her heart to bump up the totals there at the end..and she jumped for joy at all the near misses we had this year..

Im gonna go ahead and predict that after about feb 15 to the 20th, the above average temps will show themselves along with spring coming in like a lion!!!!!

As cold as its been with these below average temps this winter, something has to give! Im thinking mid month the change to warmer temps will come. March 1st i think will be the end of all chances of winter precip around the DC metro.

Call it wishcasting if youd like but it just seems something has to give.

Working in the Aircraft industry ..weather plays a big role in my job..

sooooo and i know this sounds lazy..but the only time we get paid time off is....snow / ice delays...or thunderstorms..sooooo if you can promise me alot of spring thunderstorms i will let u off the hook...lol

@ GtownG -- "I'm not a Federal Government Worker" . . . . . to shut down the FG would cost taxpayers $100 million for non productivity.

I'm trying to understand your comment. First, FG is not closed. We have been given the option of working from home or using leave that you have earned. So if I choose to use my leave there will be no productivity. If I'm working from home I will be monitored. NEXT!!!!!

I am not a Federal worker but I did read last year that "Closing the federal government for one day costs taxpayers roughly $100 million in lost productivity." I am just stating a fact and not making any judgements. ))

The above statement put out last year has been debunked by Fact Check. It didn't take into account the many workers who report in or work from home. It's far less than $100 million!!!! Its no longer a "Fact"

I love her too. Definitely. I remember once she spouted off some non sequitur about something off the wall during her forecast. I can't remember what it was but I do remember I laughed for a while about it.

I think the $100M figure is correct. In the attached article it seems that the OPM Director does not discredit it. In future years this number should decrease if more and more Federal workers can productively telecommute. I myself like it, because it cuts down on traffic for those of us who do have to drive into work.

Looking forward to seeing some great pics from the Chicago side of the family over the next few days. If I know my nephew, he's full of wiggles waiting for the snow to start. Hope everyone's taking the advice to stock up and hunker out there. Can't do much more in the face of that beyond prepare and enjoy as much as you can.

Not so much looking forward to the prospect of freezing rain in this area, though it does sound like it'll be a fairly mild dose. Thanks for the note of sanity, btw. The OPM announcement was a bit of a surprise and I thought perhaps the forecast had gotten much, much worse all of a sudden.

brad,
but if KRUZ lived down there he couldn't complain about collecting overtime pay for plowing/salting.... ;-)

re anti-snow sue palka:
she may be anti-snow, but she's also probably just playing to the vast anti-snow majority of her audience who find snow inconvenient, messy etc....

back before i found CWG, when i listened to tv/radio mets, it would always infuriate me how they would editorialize about the weather. they all say things like, "oh, i'm afraid there's snow coming" and "but hopefully temps will be warm enough to keep accumulations down" and "luckily this storm will miss us" and on and on and on. they all treat snow like it's a disaster.

i've heard topper is pro-snow, and that he sometimes lets that bias slip out. it's funny how i don't seem to mind editorializing i agree with.... i guess that's why tv mets' anti-snow bias doesn't seem to bother most people....

I honestly think Palka doesnt hate snow, shes just usually skeptical of the models, even hours out sometimes. Honestly, lately it seems FOX 5 weather has been anti snow as a whole probably moreso because of Gary McGrady, he honestly does seem like a snow hater. Even with the last 4+ incher we had of snow, 24 hours out he had alot of the area in the 1-2 inches.

To be honest I still think the best local forecaster is Bob Ryan, mainly because I think he does alot of his forecasting without strictly model hugging run to run. He's old school so i think overall he may be the best in the "TV" met business.

When a met says "at least theres no snow in the forecast" its because MOST sane people do not like snow ;)

But seriously, its a hassle to most of us and its music to my ears when I hear a met say theres no snow in the forecast. No snow is better for me, my family, my friends, my job, traffic, safety, shopping, walking, playing outside, etc, etc.

And honestly, with all the snow love here at CWG with 99% of its participants being snow lovers, i welcome the snow haters of TV!

Hey guys, regarding the comments about Sue Palka being "anti-snow", I think Sue originates from Erie, PA. I spent many Thanksgiving holidays and a few Christmases in Erie with a former boyfriend's family. It snows A TON in Erie thanks to lake effect. Can you blame her if she is the teeny tiniest bit "anti-snow"? :-)

Walter - R U afraid because the "18z gfs" seems too good to be true? Afraid to jinx it?
Weekend snow storm? Yes please....I would like some more.
But more powder-puff fluff, less thump than the last one.

Yeah, I cosign KRUZ. I realize that many here are big snow fans who think one snowstorm isn't nearly enough and are looking forward to the next one while the last one is still on the ground. By all means have fun w/that, no intent to rain on your parades; but please, try to remember that for a lot of us a snowstorm is a nuisance that robs us of vacation time, damages our gardens and strands us places we have no desire to be. We'll try and understand you if you try and understand us, OK? =)

I used to follow Bob Ryan because if he said snow, he usually meant it would snow, but I can never find him. I was also one of the ones who could not believe when Doug Hill said last week's storm would be less than an inch. Most forecasters that night said school would be on for sure, so most of my coworkers were surprised when we were out in Loudoun. Not me. I had been following CWG and knew there was a chance

Why is it, that every time a little or a lot of precipitation is due to hit the washington dc area, my hopes for snow are quickly extinguished with the dreaded words "Temperatures will be above freezing".. Why oh why, are temperatures in the washington dc metropolitan area, always, mysteriously higher, when ever there is an impending prospect of precipitation in the forecast? I thank the Snow Gods for CWG and Doug Hill, because they always give this avid snow fan something called.... SNOWHOPE!

@JASON. How about after the school cast tonight, you blog about the different counties around the area i.e Howard 3 apples, DC hf an apple, Fairfax 2 apples, MCPS 4.5 apples etc????? For us teachers??? Ya??

FIREDRAGON47,
i just said "afraid" because i was imitating a tv met.... of course i'm thrilled it shows 5-8". i don't believe it, yet. i'm not getting emotionally invested in it yet. but i am pleased that the possibility is out there. most days there's NO chance of snow.

@BobMiller2--You got it, dude! Pepco has singlehandedly turned a city of people who--if they didn't enjoy snow, at least tolerated it--into snow haters. Be patient with us as we dream of Spring. (Not summer; ever T-storm brings more misery and power outages...)
On a lighter note, I'm re-posting the link to a seriously funny spoof of Accuweather's terrifying "weather maps."http://gawker.com/5746722/accuweathercom-has-the-worlds-most-terrifying-weather-maps

I'm a fed, funded a bit differently than others, but we follow OPM. Anyway, I look forward to the ideal day where there is ZERO cost due to snow. We know that will never happen. Telecommuting is a step in the right direction, and unscheduled leave helps also. I know that unless I have a meeting scheduled or have to handle something classified, I can do almost everything I need to logged in from home. I still usually only bill 3-4 hours of work, and the rest as leave. After all, there is shoveling to be done on those days too.

The federal govt is NOT "closed" tomorrow. "Closed" means that no one (except for a few critical personnel) goes to work, and everyone gets a free day off with pay. That costs the govt both in terms of lost productivity and in terms of pay. All OPM has done is announce in advance that people who already have a teleworking agreement in place can telework tomorrow even if they were not otherwise scheduled to do so. People can also take unscheduled vacation time (normally needs to be scheduled in advance). But tomorrow is otherwise a normal work day. Fed haters should understand that before they start throwing around the 100 million/day nonsense.

Well the thing is, its 2 storms, one minor one tonight that will be a little freezing rain that will probably delay. However another threat is coming later in the evening that is more questionable, as it could be freezing rain or plain rain as we are right on the border so my odds are 50% delay (due to the minor stuff overnight), 20% closed (minor stuff overnight+not wanting to deal with the crap later in the day) and 30% normal day (minor stuff at night isn't a big deal and stuff later will be mostly rain)

I have a 11:15am flight to Florida from National airport on Wednesday. The airline is letting people change flights without penalty. However,I am thinking that, at worst, it will be delayed. I know the plane is coming from Florida.

tiggerinfairfax - my husband had a flight out to Florida tomorrow morning, so went tonight instead. Someone else he knows had their flight from NY to Florida tomorrow morning canceled already. Isn't Wednesday going to be worse?

just went for a run through Washington Grove, MD - light snow/sleet - there's a light dusting on the roads and the cars have a light layer on them already - hopefully not too much more of this, or it could be a rough morning