NFL Predictions 2013: Picking Over/Under Win Totals for Every Team

As the 2013 NFL season kickoff approaches, now is a great time for predictions regarding the over/unders for each team. It's a fun way to make the season a little more interesting and perhaps get rich!

Or destitute. But I'm a the-scotch-glass-is-half-full type of guy.

Although I suppose that could be the result of winning or losing.

Anyways, the Vegas oddsmakers have had their numbers available for awhile, so it's time to take the plunge and divvy up the loot—or wins.

There are a lot of moving parts that have to be accounted for when taking on a project like this.

First, it isn't a look at each team individually, like the theme might imply. I can't pick 25 teams to win over their slotted number of games and expect everything to even out. Obviously, there are only 256 wins available during the regular season so not every team can be picked to go over, despite all that preseason optimism. Thus, the league is taken as a whole.

Next, if I picked the under for your favorite team, it's because I hate that franchise. There wasn't a stitch of objective analysis or roster evaluation involved. Just pure spite.

I'm petty like that.

So click through to find out the victims of my ill will. And hopefully make a few dollars.

All win totals were provided by bovada.lv. All grades, stats or rankings are courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com and require a subscription.

Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 Wins

The flop sweat is already making it difficult to see the screen and I'm questioning my decision to go to college. Alas, the show must go on.

The Arizona Cardinals have to compete with two Super Bowl contenders and the rising St. Louis Rams within their division. Add in their 11 losses in the last 12 games, and there's no possible way they could win more than 5.5 games.

Right?

Well, fortune favors the bold. Although Vegas usually breaks those types. Whatever.

The Cardinals have playmakers all over the defense. Linebacker Daryl Washington will miss four games to open the season, but Patrick Peterson, John Abraham and Tyrann Mathieu can make enough plays to keep things close.

And that's where the offense will take over.

The Carson Palmer-led unit will thrive in Bruce Arians' system. Plus, Larry Fitzgerald's revival will setup running back Rashard Mendenhall and the improved offensive line to give the Cardinals a balanced attack.

With a much-better-than-you-think team and a schedule that includes the AFC South, the call here is easier than it first appeared.

Atlanta Falcons: 10 Wins

Wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White for a new-age triplets with Matt Ryan, he of the 68.6-percent completion rate and 32 touchdowns in 2012 (both career highs).

On the other side, rookie cornerback Robert Alford is primed to pair with returning starter Asante Samuel. And the recently signed Osi Umenyiora will be the pass-rushing presence the Falcons desperately need at defensive end.

But there are some glaring holes.

The offensive line has a huge question mark lining up at right tackle, now that the released Tyson Clabo's replacement, Mike Johnson, was lost for the season. Plus, Umenyiora and Sean Weatherspoon might be the only studs in the front seven of the defense.

Still, the rest of the NFC, and specifically the South division, haven't done enough to close the gap on a team that won 13 games a year ago. Atlanta is a solid bet for double-digit wins, giving us something close to a lock, or at a least push.

Oh, and there's that huge contract bestowed on quarterback Joe Flacco. And the loss of top tight end Dennis Pitta.

What nobody has been talking about is the athletic conversion of the defense.

Rookies safety Matt Elam and linebacker Arthur Brown are inching closer to making strong contributions, while free-agent acquisitions Elvis Dumervil and Daryl Smith will be immediate upgrades over their predecessors.

Dumervil harassed quarterbacks (39 hurries and 13 sacks) last year opposite to Von Miller, and will now bookend the defense with a healthy Terrell Suggs. Linebacker Smith is a reliable leader who will help fill the leadership vacuum left by Lewis.

The offense will struggle a bit, but still has running back Ray Rice. Additionally, the whole team should enter the season with a boulder on its collective shoulder that should carry them just past the 8.5-win mark.

But I wouldn't put a house payment on it. More like the amount you save a month for unplugging all of your appliances when they're not in use. Roughly 67 cents.

The Panthers only upgraded one problem area when they drafted defensive tackle Star Lotulelei.

That means the secondary is going to continue getting victimized by a semi-difficult schedule that includes two visits apiece from quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Your "key improvement" in the secondary can't be a castoff (cornerback Drayton Florence) from the Detroit Lions. Ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers how that worked out (See Wright, Eric).

Further complicating matters, Cam Newton is learning a new offense. If the preseason and his -2.1 grade is any indication, it isn't going particularly well.

Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins

The Green Bay Packers are a lock to get to the playoffs, leaving one spot open for the other three NFC North teams. Out of all of them, the Chicago Bears will be the franchise to seize that slot.

The defense is ready to transition out of the Brian Urlacher era thanks to the bevy of vets still on hand and the emergence of Jon Bostic as a day-one starter. He's looked great this preseason, making plays from sideline to sideline and creating turnovers.

The difference between this year's team and the 2012 version will be a more efficient offense.

The line received a much-needed upgrade with the arrival of Jermon Bushrod. He isn't an elite left tackle, but he's competent, which is more than we could say about his predecessors.

Jay Cutler will be fresh out of excuses between the improved protection and arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Running back Matt Forte and lead receiver Brandon Marshall will continue to lead the charge, but Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Martellus Bennet to push this team over the top.

Cincinnati Bengals: 8.5 Wins

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The Cincinnati Bengals almost have it all.

There is the defensive line that all but maybe one or two general managers in the league would envy. There's also a secondary behind it that can take advantage of the pressure and even cause a quarterback to hold onto the ball a little too long. It's one of those mutually beneficial relationships.

Sure, they could use an upgrade over linebacker Rey Maualuga or defensive tackle Domata Peko, but I'm nitpicking over two positions.

And quarterback Andy Dalton is one of the best setup signal-callers in the league.

He has A.J. Green, who is Calvin Johnson-esque, and a decent stable of pass-catchers including Mohamed Sanu, Jermaine Greshman and rookie Tyler Eifert. There's also a banging back (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and a scatback (Giovani Bernard) to take dumpoffs for first downs.

Plus, he gets to survey his options behind a solid offensive line. Every one of the projected starters graded positively last year except for center Kyle Cook.

Cleveland Browns: 6 Wins

The Cleveland Browns won five games last year, they didn't lose any significant players and grabbed some nice additions.

The point is, betting on them to win two more games doesn't seem like a stretch.

In fact, I'd go as far as to say they will challenge for a playoff spot.

Think about it.

The defense built a scary outside linebacker rotation between Paul Kruger, Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo. The rest of the defense was already solid, and now they'll be coordinated by rising star Ray Horton.

As for the offense, have you seen Brandon Weeden this preseason? He's throwing balls with confidence and dropping them in tiny, over-the-shoulder windows for long gains.

Add in an already good offensive line and a healthy Trent Richardson, and you get more than six wins.

Maybe—just maybe—the universe is no longer conspiring against Cleveland.

Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 Wins

The NFC East is a constant crapshoot. How else do you describe a division whose second-place team had almost twice as high of a point differential as the champ?

But somebody has to win it, right?

The Dallas Cowboys were right there in 2012, falling in the season finale to the Washington Redskins. Well, this is the year the Cowboys finally break through.

"That's what they say about the Cowboys ever year. Nice try, 'Mr. Columnist.'"

Agreed. But those other years didn't include defensive guru Monte Kiffin. His presence will free up Dallas' various difference-makers (DeMarcus Ware, Sean Lee, Jason Hatcher, etc.) to form a suffocating unit.

The offensive line continues to be the main issue, but new center Travis Frederick that should push Phil Costa to guard, beefing up the interior line. If the Cowboys can help tackle Doug Free with chip blocks, the offense should put up enough points to ride the defense to victories.

Plus, 12 wins is a lot to ask, regardless of how good the team is. It just makes sense to play the odds and take the under. All kinds of unpredictable things happen, like injuries and suspensions, leaving you vulnerable to such a high mark.

Okay. That's only two things. And neither of them includes the schedule.

Mostly because the schedule is the saving grace. Denver is blessed with six games against the AFC West and four against the AFC South, the two worst divisions in football.

Detroit Lions: 8 Wins

Remember, this is about making money. That means you have to make smart decisions based on what you see.

That's why I can't recommend picking the Detroit Lions to win more than eight games.

The defensive line looks closer to the playoff-caliber unit of 2011. However, the preseason has exposed a secondary and linebacking corps that can't tackle or cover.

Louis Delmas should return from injury soon, but he's always battling some ailment. And they still only have one cornerback (Chris Houston) worthy of starting at this point.

The offense will depend on a talented-but-inexperienced offensive line and the health of its two best receivers (Calvin Johnson and Ryan Broyles). Not to mention the occasionally erratic sidearm tactics of quarterback Matthew Stafford.

The possibility of a playoff return is there for Detroit, but there are too many "ifs" in this argument to take the over.

Houston Texans: 10.5 Wins

It figures. As soon as the Houston Texans find that elusive second receiver to take the heat off of Andre Johnson, questions about the running game have come to the forefront.

Running back Arian Foster's health has been the lingering question of the preseason. The fear is understandable, but backup Ben Tate will be an adequate fill in if the need arises.

And he'll be adequate because of rookie wide reciever DeAndre Hopkins. His emergence changes the dynamic of this offense, from one heavily reliant on Foster to a unit that can make plays in a variety of ways.

The defense must avoid the swoon that they suffered during a four-game stretch last year, and that will all be reliant on health. But even with the always-present possiblity of an Ed Reed injury, so long as the linebackers can stay on the field, the defense will be fine.

Plus, that J.J. Watt guy is still around.

The Texans enter 2013 as a much more complete team thanks to that above-mentioned rookie. And that will make all the difference. That seems like a lot of faith in one man, but it's actually a compliment to the entire roster, as it now all fits together perfectly.

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins

The Indianapolis Colts are going to return to Earth in 2013. That much is certain in the parity-driven, unpredictable NFL.

But the Colts have been blessed with a schedule that includes the Jacksonville Jaguars twice and the AFC West. That's enough to give me a dramatic pause that Dan Patrick would be proud of.

However, the schedule isn't friendly enough to get the Colts over the 8-8 mark. Not for a team that had the lowest net points of all playoff participants by 60 points and enjoyed unprecedented luck (no pun intended) in 2012

The defense did little to improve immediately. Outside linebackers Bjoern Werner and Erik Walden will be a downgrade from the departed Dwight Freeney.

Yes, quarterback Andrew Luck will improve his completion percentage. But that still won't be enough to get this team over the hump—again. Lightning is not going to strike Lucas Oil Stadium twice.

Miami Dolphins: 8 Wins

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This would be so much easier if they would have tacked on another half-win. Of course, Vegas didn't.

Sigh.

The Miami Dolphins defense has terrifying potential on par with the next Adam Sandler movie (not a compliment to Sandler). Outside pass-rushers Dion Jordan and Cameron Wake will set the tone for the improved second and third tiers.

And there is plenty of speculation that Ryan Tannehill will take a giant step forward in 2013. But as Marc Sessler of NFL.com pointed out, the offensive line is going to be an issue.

Despite looking like a lost cause in 2012, tackle Jonathan Martin has done well in the preseason at left tackle, earning positive grades in every game. But getting caught up in the exhibition performances would be a mistake.

There will be some growing pains for the offensive line, which when combined with the schedule, reveals all the makings of an 8-8 team. When faced with that proposition, always take the under, since injuries strike every team and there isn't much depth in Miami.

Minnesota Vikings: 7.5 Wins

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Adrian Peterson went absolutely nuts in 2012 and the Minnesota Vikings won 10 games. I'll probably rue the day I went against Peterson, but count me among those who don't think he'll duplicate his ridiculous 2,000-yard campaign.

And he has to be excited about the additions of wide receivers Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson. One is a proven commodity while the later is an exciting athlete.

But Christian Ponder is still the quarterback, who happened to put up a worse PFF grade than Brady Quinn. Don't get any ideas about Matt Cassel either. He's the one who lost his starting role to Quinn.

Lastly, the loss of cornerback Antoine Winfield is going to sting more than people realize. He wasn't just a leader. He posted the highest grade among all cornerbacks last year.

Unless Peterson goes for another 2,000, the Vikings will fall closer to their 2011 mark (6-10).

New Orleans: 9 Wins

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Many people are jumping on the New Orleans Saints bandwagon because head coach Sean Payton is back.

I'm one of them.

Payton will bring a sense of urgency and accountability that was lacking last year. Plus, his pairing with quarterback Drew Brees behind a still solid offensive line means the offense should return to 2011 levels (34.2 points per game).

Everything will hinge on the defense.

The Saints were at their best when the defense created enough pressure and turnovers to let the offense take the day. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's scheme is designed to create pre-snap confusion and capitalize on mistakes.

Sounds like the exact recipe that the Saints used to consistently reach double-digit wins. How convenient.

New York Jets: 6.5 Wins

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What are the reasons for picking the New York Jets to win seven or more games?

Seriously, I'm asking. I can't find one.

The passing game?

If "LOL" constitued acceptable analysis, I'd leave it at that. But we can sum it up by mentioning Mark Sanchez, a "struggling" rookie (Geno Smith) and the fact that no one knows when wide receiver Santonio Holmes will be able to contribute.

New York Giants: 9 Wins

The New York Giants have averaged nine wins a season for the last four years. If you can receive great odds to bet on exactly nine wins, do it.

As for picking the over or under, remember that this is the NFC East. I'll give you my pick and rationale, but this line was easy to set for the simple reason laid out above.

To put it simply, this team is built like a better version of the Detroit Lions.

The defensive line can survive the loss of Osi Umenyiora with the additions of Cullen Jenkins and Damontre Moore. And the offense will thrive with a healthy wide receiving corps, sturdy offensive line and Eli Manning.

However, the back seven of the defense is going to struggle in a division with two better teams. This team has 8-8 written all over it.

Oakland Raiders: 5.5 Games

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Much like the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Oakland Raiders had a solid offseason. General manager Reggie McKenzie has taken an untenable situation and started to dig the franchise out of their Hue Jackson-dug hole.

Unfortunately, none of those moves will pay dividends immediately. Or at least not enough to get the Raiders to six wins.

The offensive line has a grand total of one lineman (Jared Veldheer) that would be a surefire starter elsewhere. And the addition of Charles Woodson won't be enough to plug all the leaks on defense.

Philadelphia Eagles: 7.5 Games

The decision to start Michael Vick over Nick Foles was a smart one by head coach Chip Kelly. Vick has been making quick decisions and sharp throws that should result in a decent number of points.

But that doesn't mean the Philadelphia Eagles will end many games on the winning side.

The defense falls somewhere between Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez, meaning even when it gets beat, it finds a way to make things worse. Missed tackles and assignments will be the theme of the season, as the preseason opener against the Pats attested.

When I said the NFC East was a crapshoot, it wasn't meant to include the Eagles. They're just—never mind.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 Wins

Outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley is finally healthy. He will lead a physical, pass-rushing defense that will exemplify how the Steelers play football.

Additionally, the team wised up and grabbed Michigan State running back Le'Veon Bell. His tough, bruising style will revive the Steelers ground game.

But while these moves will help, neither of them will overcome the offensive line or the fact that Troy Polamalu is another year older.

The line looked terrible against Washington.

While Ben Roethlisberger is great at avoiding pressure, that continued exposure to big hits is going to wear him down like in years past. And, just like Polamalu, the time needed for his body to heal is going to increase as he gets older.

The AFC North is a tough division and there won't be any mercy for the former bully on the block.

San Francisco 49ers: 11 Wins

There's no way I could have taken the over on every team projected to win 11 games. That's just imprudent.

And when weighed against the Patriots and Broncos, the San Francisco 49ers odds of besting 11 games didn't measure up.

I know. Head coach Jim Harbuagh can do no wrong and this team is destined to go 19-0.

But check it out.

The NFC West is the toughest division in football. There isn't a single easy out in the lineup.

There's also going to be a transition with the offense. Just google "read-option scheme" and you'll find numerous blueprints to stop it. And if us media types can figure it out, you know the defensive coordinators have.

I won't necessarily argue that. But it won't be as easy without top wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Anquan Boldin is a little older and they don't have many in-game reps at this point.

Finally, there could be a few cracks in that defense. Defensive tackle Justin Smith is the fulcrum of that defense, and he will be 34 before September is over. Not to mention the 88 points the unit gave up in three playoff games.

One of the hyped-up teams is going to fall short of the mark, even if it's only by a game. Out of the three, give me the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 Wins

If the Lombardi Trophy was handed out based on the strength of the offseason, the Seattle Seahawks would be parading right now. Alas, they still have to play the games.

Here's betting the Seahawks won't mind.

The bulk of the top-10 scoring offense is back, and quarterback Russell Wilson had another offseason to hone his craft. If his second half of the season is any indication, he used that time to learn and improve.

Sure, there are worries about Percy Harvin's health. But the defense will make that a moot point.

Mainly because the defensive line is loaded.

The arrivals of defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril add depth to a defense whose only real struggle was getting after the quarterback. With the added presence and the return of the best secondary in the league, points will be at a premium for opponents.

Getting to 10 wins shouldn't be a problem. That last win will be tough with the schedule, but the Seahawks are well equipped to handle the task.

St. Louis Rams: 7.5 Wins

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I'm not convinced that the St. Louis Rams will make it out of the NFC West basement.

Their schedule is very tough, and there's a lot of not-before-seen projections surrounding quarterback Sam Bradford. I know he has a lot of new toys, but not every first-overall selection develops quickly.

But none of that means I wouldn't take the Rams to win eight or more games. It just might not be as many victories as the Cardinals.

The Rams employ a pass-rush-by-committee approach, with contributions from many different players resulting in a league-leading 52 sacks in 2012. That type of pressure will fare them well in today's passing league.

Additionally, the improved offensive line should give the above-maligned Bradford a chance to get the ball to Tavon Austin. With the scintillating rookie creating matchup nightmares for defenses, there will be plenty of holes for the rest of the offensive weapons to maneuver.

But most importantly, this team plays with a physicality that wears people down. The Rams take the game to their opponents, and forces them to battle their way to victory.

St. Louis has a lot of the markings of a good team. But so does everyone else in the NFC West. That's why they'll all likely be bunched up near that eight to 11-win mark when it's all over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Wins

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You have to hand it to Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik. He is willing to do whatever it takes to turn the Bucs into a winner, from bringing in high-priced free agents to making bold trades.

Unfortunately, none of them will hold the keys to Tampa Bay's season. That honor, or onus, falls on quarterback Josh Freeman.

Popular opinions aren't always wrong, and this is certainly a make-or-break season for Freeman. There's no other way to explain his lack of a contract extension past the 2013 season.

Head coach Greg Schiano almost seems to be expecting Freeman to fail, as he's given rookie quarterback Mike Glennon the vast share of the preseason reps. Schiano stated that Freeman didn't get many reps in the exhibition game against the Patriots because he worked against them in practice. However, Freeman's mechanical issues require him to "practice" in actual game situations, not practice.

That's too much uncertainty surrounding the most important position on the field to trust the improved defense to carry Tampa to eight wins. I'll pass.

Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Games

Previously, I thought the Tennessee Titans were a team on the rise. For better or worse, I'm sticking to that assertion.

The AFC South is ripe for three or four wins since the Titans play the Colts and Jaguars twice apiece. With the easier schedule thanks to the AFC West matchups, seven wins is definitely on the table.

How? Glad you asked.

Rookie offensive guard Chance Warmack has played well despite the early concerns. His pairing with free-agent signing Andy Levtire creates an imposing line that will open holes for running backs Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory.

With the pressure off of embattled quarterback Jack Locker thanks to the running game and offensive line, he can settle into a rhythm. The key is that he doesn't need to be great, just effective enough to keep the chains moving.

So long as the Titans ride that ball-control offense, the improved-but-still-not-great defense can thrive in a shortened game. New defensive tackle Sammie Hill will help plug the middle while safety George Wilson will provide competent play in the back.

The Titans won't be a playoff team. However, they have enough to make the over an intriguing bet.

Washington Redskins: 8.5 Wins

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I can see why people think the Washington Redskins will regress. Their point differential was the third-lowest of the 2012 playoff teams and they had second-highest turnover margin (plus 17) in the NFC.

But that doesn't take into account the players they will get back from injuries.

The coaches might have him throttle down the rushing a bit, but so long as he is smarter about it, taking off for decent ground gains will still be a concern for opponents. Plus, he's a smooth passer who doesn't throw picks.

The 'Skins will also welcome wide receiver Pierre Garcon back into the fold. He gives Griffin the credible home-run threat he desperately needs.

The secondary is going to struggle. However, returning outside linebacker Brian Orakpo's presence will drastically limit the amount of time the defensive backs will be forced to hold their coverage. His 2011 season of 10 sacks and 43 quarterback hurries is certainly attainable, making him a favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.