Rugby ties tantalising in their unpredictability

The pressure at the World Cup quarter-finals this weekend will be immense and it can make fools out of favourites.

If you lose, your plane takes you across an ocean or a sea and not to Auckland . . . unless the All Blacks are beaten, of course, though let’s not go there for the moment.

The impending knockout contests are tantalisingly unpredictable. If rugby hit puberty when it turned professional in 1995, then its shoulders have finally broadened and it has become more co-ordinated as it grows into its body.

Of the quarter-final matches, only that between the All Blacks and Argentina seems to have an air of inevitability about it, although Dan Carter’s absence and 15 fiery, committed and passionate Argentinians (is there any other kind?) might be keen to change the natural order of that contest.

The key for the All Blacks is pace, control and working their patterns of play. For the Argentinians it is disruption.

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On form, the next most predictable outcome would be in the England-France match but, against that, the most predictable thing about the French is their unpredictability.

After their loss to Tonga last weekend I spoke to a Frenchman who, palms up and with a resigned shrug of the shoulders, explained all: “We are French."

The irrational inconsistency of their team must frustrate France supporters and, let’s face it, most people not born under the Union Jack will be supporting France this weekend.

As a Wallabies supporter I would prefer to see England knocked out, mainly because Australians haven’t fared too well against the English in sport of late and a confrontation in a final would make me very nervous.

On form, the English should win this running away, but the French are liable to pull out dynamite and destroy anyone – probably not two weeks in a row, though.

What then for Wales and Ireland? These teams have been playing two fairly distinct styles. The Welsh are the team most akin to the All Blacks in that they emphasise fast hands and fast feet, while not shirking the rough stuff (though they are neither quite as fast nor quite as rough). They love keeping the ball alive.

The Irish, led in performance in this tournament by their abrasive breakaway Shaun O’Brien, also promote the tough stuff but aren’t quite as enterprising as the Welsh.

In the past, just like the kid who doesn’t have his own bicycle so he continually shoves sticks in the spokes of yours, Irish teams have seemed more intent on stopping you playing your rugby rather than playing it themselves.

Not this time around. They have strike force in Brian O’Driscoll and power in the form of Paul O’Connell and are building the belief to win big games, as they did in the final match of the Six Nations tournament this year.

Which leads us to the Wallabies against the Springboks. In 1999, before we alighted from the team bus at Twickenham and confronted the Boks in the semi-final, our reserve forward and former Springbok Tiaan Strauss addressed the team. His words were curt but poignant: “These guys have what you want [the Cup] and they will not give it up without a fight. Be prepared for the fight of your life."

And it was, until the 100th minute, just minutes after Stephen Larkham had kicked the lone field goal of his life.

In 2011 the scenario remains the same. They have what we want and it will again take some fighting to prise it from them. It will take character as there will be no glory without guts; but it sits on a knife’s edge. I feel it’s 60-40 gold and green but one could justifiably argue 60-40 green and gold.

I don’t think it will be determined in the scrums. Nor in the lineouts. It will come down to physicality at the breakdown, the victor out of David Pocock and Heinrich Brussow on the ground, and perhaps the goal kicking, although I seriously hope not the latter as Morne Steyn is more experienced and reliable than James O’Connor.

I expect the All Blacks will progress but you might want to toss a coin on the other results.