NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 16

Groundhog’s Day isn’t until February, but in the Bill Murray movie sense it could come a month earlier in the NFL. That’s because two Week 17 games –Packers-Cardinals and Eagles-Cowboys — could repeat on the schedule the very next week in the wild-card round. In fact, we project that exact scenario will play out in the NFC.

As for the AFC, everything isn’t so neat and tidy. With two 8-6 teams (Ravens and Broncos) and six 7-7 teams (Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Titans, Texans) vying for two playoff spots, the scenarios are complicated, to say the least. The simplest projection, obviously, is for Baltimore and Denver to win out. However, to provide as much clarity as possible, we have figured out the team vs. team tiebreakers for all eight teams should they finish at 9-7. They’re listed in the corresponding Extra Points (in italics) below.

Additionally, we lay out the playoff picture two ways: 1) As though the season ended today, and 2) As though the season will play out the way we predict it will. We will use the NFL’s official tiebreaker procedures to determine seeding. Without further ado…

AFC

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (14-0)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 1 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. N.Y. Jets (W); at Buffalo (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 16-0; No. 1Extra Point: As evidenced by last Thursday’s win over Jacksonville, the Colts do not appear to be letting up, so we’re now projecting them to run the table.

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (11-3)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 2 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Tennessee (L); vs. Washington (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 12-4; No. 2Extra Point: There’s no reason to believe the red-hot Chargers will lose their final two games. But should they stumble, and the Patriots win out, San Diego would fall to the No. 3 seed because they lose the common games tiebreaker with New England.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-5)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 3 seed (wins tiebreaker with Cincinnati based on strength of victory)Remaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Jacksonville (W); at Houston (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 11-5; No. 3Extra Point: The Patriots are a power broker in the race for the No. 5 and 6 seeds because they play two of the 7-7 teams. Ironically, by beating both the Jags and Texans, the Patriots will be helping clear a path for the division rival Jets and/or Dolphins to make the postseason.

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CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-5)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 4 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Kansas City (W); at N.Y. Jets (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 10-6; No. 4 (wins tiebreaker with Baltimore based on head-to-head)Extra Point: Should the Bengals finish tied with the Patriots at either 10-6 or 11-5, the tiebreaker will be strength of victory, which is the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. It currently favors New England, and likely still would after Week 17.

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BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-6)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 5 seed (wins tiebreaker with Denver based on head-to-head)Remaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Pittsburgh (W); at Oakland (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 10-6; No. 5Extra Point: We project the Ravens will win out, making their 9-7 tiebreakers moot. However, on the microscopic chance we are wrong, here’s how the Ravens would stand:

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 6 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Philadelphia (L); vs. Kansas City (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 9-7; No. 6 (wins tiebreaker with Tennessee on conference record)Extra Point: Oddly enough, we project the Broncos will lose to Philly this weekend but still make the postseason. Here’s how the Broncos would stand at 9-7:

At 9-7 (with win over Eagles and loss to Chiefs), Denver would win tiebreaker with Titans (conference record); Denver would lose tiebreaker with Ravens (h2h), Jaguars (conference record), Dolphins (conference record), Jets (conference record) and Steelers (h2h). The Broncos tiebreaker with the Texans would be strength of victory (can’t project right now).

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at New England (L); at Cleveland (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 7-9; outExtra Point: First thing’s first. Winning in Foxboro is a long shot for the Jags, not to mention a trip to rejuvenated Cleveland to end the season. But should Jacksonville find a way to get to 9-7, here’s how its tiebreakers would look:

At 9-7, Jacksonville would win tiebreaker with Titans (division record), Jets (h2h), Steelers (conference record) and Texans (h2h); Jacksonville would lose tiebreaker with Dolphins (h2h). For a tiebreaker with the Ravens or Broncos, see Baltimore and Denver entries above.

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MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Houston (W); vs. Pittsburgh (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 8-8; outExtra Point: Wins over the Texans and Steelers would put the Dolphins in great shape, but they’d still need the Ravens or Broncos to lose one of their final two.

At 9-7, Miami would have a better record than the Texans and Steelers. Miami would win tiebreaker with Jaguars (h2h) and Jets (h2h); Miami would lose tiebreaker with Titans (h2h). For a tiebreaker with the Ravens or Broncos, see Baltimore and Denver entries above.

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NEW YORK JETS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Indianapolis (L); vs. Cincinnati (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 8-8; outExtra Point: The bad news? The Jets have to beat the unbeaten Colts and the playoff-bound Bengals to reach 9-7. Worst news? They’d still have to get significant help to have a shot at the postseason.

At 9-7, New York would win tiebreaker with Steelers (conference record), Titans (h2h) and Texans (h2h); New York would lose tiebreaker with Jaguars (h2h) and Dolphins (h2h). For a tiebreaker with the Ravens or Broncos, see Baltimore and Denver entries above.

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Baltimore (L); at Miami (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 8-8; outExtra Point: A common theme among the 7-7s is that winning out guarantees them precisely nothing, the Steelers included. Even with a win over the Ravens, Pittsburgh would still lose the division record tiebreaker with Baltimore. Here’s how the tiebreakers break down for the Steelers:

At 9-7, Pittsburgh would have a better record than the Dolphins. Pittsburgh would win tiebreaker with Titans (h2h) and Broncos (h2h); Pittsburgh would lose tiebreaker with Jaguars (conference record), Jets (conference record), Ravens (division record or h2h), and Texans (common games).

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TENNESSEE TITANS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. San Diego (W); at Seattle (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 9-7; outExtra Point: The Titans’ poor conference record (5-7, if they win on Christmas) is crippling, but there’s still hope.

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Miami (L); vs. New England (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 7-9; outExtra Point: The only team in worse shape than the Titans is Houston, who lose tiebreakers with every team but the Dolphins and Steelers (and possibly the Broncos). Still, there’s hope:

At 9-7, Houston would have a better record than the Dolphins. Houston would win tiebreaker with Steelers (common games); Houston would lose tiebreaker with Jaguars (h2h), Jets (h2h), Titans (division record) and Ravens (conference record). For a tiebreaker with Broncos, see Denver entry above.

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Scenario

No. 1 seed

No. 2 seed

No. 3 seed

No. 4 seed

No. 5 seed

No. 6 seed

If Playoffs Started Today

Indianapolis

San Diego

New England

Cincinnati

Baltimore

Denver

SI.com Projections

Indianapolis

San Diego

New England

Cincinnati

Baltimore

Denver

NFC

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (13-1)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 1 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Tampa Bay (W); at Carolina (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 15-1; No. 1Extra Point: The perfect dream is over, but a simple win over the Bucs or Panthers (or a Vikings loss) and the Saints will be home for the postseason.

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-3)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 2 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Chicago (W); vs. N.Y. Giants (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 12-4; No. 2Extra Point: Worth noting that if the Vikings and Eagles finish tied at 12-4, the Eagles would be the No. 2 seed based on conference record tiebreaker.

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-4)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 3 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Denver (W); at Dallas (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 11-5; No. 6Extra Point: In our projection, the Eagles fall to the No. 6 seed because they’d lose tiebreakers to the Cowboys and Packers. It would also mean a merry-go-round of sorts in the NFC East, with the Cowboys sweeping the Eagles, the Eagles sweeping the Giants and the Giants sweeping the Cowboys (and all three of those teams sweeping the Redskins). And it would mean Dallas hosting the Eagles again on wild-card weekend.

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ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-5)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 4 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. St. Louis (W); vs. Green Bay (L)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 10-6; No. 4Extra Point: Provided the Cardinals take care of business at home against the hapless Rams, we project Arizona will sit its starters in Week 17. It’d be a strategic ploy, as the Cardinals wouldn’t want to show too much since they’d host the Packers again in the wild-card round.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-5)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 5 seedRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Seattle (W); at Arizona (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 11-5; No. 5 (wins tiebreaker with Philadelphia on common games)Extra Point: The Packers won’t have the same luxury in Week 17 as Arizona, because Green Bay still will have something to play for.

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DALLAS COWBOYS (9-5)

If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 6 seed
Remaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Washington (W); vs. Philadelphia (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 11-5; No. 3 (wins tiebreaker with Philadelphia on head to head)Extra Point: Can the Cowboys beat the Eagles two straight weeks? That will be the challenge in Dallas as our projections have Dallas hosting the Eagles again on wild-card weekend.

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NEW YORK GIANTS (8-6)

If The Playoffs Started Today: OutRemaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Carolina (W); at Minnesota (W)Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 10-6; outExtra Point: With the Giants holding tiebreakers over the Cowboys (head to head) and Packers (common games), New York still has a legitimate shot. Should either Dallas or Green Bay lose in Week 16, the Giants would control their own destiny heading to a potentially resting Minnesota in Week 17.

3 comments

Do you know who am I?
Here is a hot news
The Colts continue to surprise everyone and keep playing their stars. Players such as Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Reggie Wayne continue to suit up for the Colts. The Colts have accomplished everything set out so far but it still remains a question if going perfect is one of those items.
This week will be interesting to see what happens with the Jets. The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and also have the best defense in football. Is that something that Peyton Manning needs to see right now? It’s a hard question to answer but all I know is that this is still the #1 team in football.
Merry Christmas!And have a good time!

Do you know who am I?
Here is a hot news
The Colts continue to surprise everyone and keep playing their stars. Players such as Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Reggie Wayne continue to suit up for the Colts. The Colts have accomplished everything set out so far but it still remains a question if going perfect is one of those items.More interesting NFL Draft.
This week will be interesting to see what happens with the Jets. The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and also have the best defense in football. Is that something that Peyton Manning needs to see right now? It’s a hard question to answer but all I know is that this is still the #1 team in football.
Merry Christmas!And have a good time!