EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

Catherine Harris, Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan write: Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east. […]ISW therefore assesses that Russia has the capability to go on the offensive in Ukraine imminently and is conducting military maneuvers consistent with that intent. – Institute for the Study of War

Isolationists won in Syria, but internationalists can prevailFrederick W. Kagan | The Hill Liberal and conservative internationalists must now make up their minds. Shall we continue with the mutual accusations, partisan bickering, and self-canceling rhetoric? Or shall we put aside our policy differences in defense of the principle that the US must remain engaged in the world?

Fredrick W. Kagan writes: Trump has set the retreat in motion with his decision to declare victory in Syria and withdraw, as well as to withdraw from Afghanistan for no clear reason whatsoever. The isolationists who have condemned the United States involvement in the Middle East and rest of the world for decades are about to get their wish. […]Our size and geographic advantages make our defeat improbable, yet those on both sides of the political aisle who see these dangers, as well as the need for America to rebuild a world in which we wish to live, must unite. – The Hill

U.S., TURKEY, SYRIA:Will U.S. Exit From Syria Change Terrain of Turkey's Roadmap?By Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor: “For almost four years, Ankara’s supreme priority in northern Syria has been to erode, if not totally eliminate, the military capacity of Kurdish militias it considers to be terrorists or terrorist-linked — specifically the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey says is the PKK's Syrian offshoot.”SYRIA:Israel Attacks Weapons Depot Near Syrian CapitalBy Bassem Mroue, AP: “Israeli warplanes flying over Lebanon fired missiles toward areas near the Syrian capital of Damascus late Tuesday, hitting an arms depot and wounding three soldiers, Syrian state media reported, saying that most of the missiles were shot down by air defense units.”

Iran has confirmed a recent ballistic missile test that was condemned by the United States. The semi-official Fars news agency on Tuesday quoted Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying the test was an “important one.” Hajizadeh, who leads the Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division, said the American outcry “indicates that the test was very important to them.” – Associated Press

The stealth superpowerOriana Skylar Mastro | Foreign Affairs China has no interest in establishing a web of global alliances, sustaining a global military presence, sending troops thousands of miles from its borders, leading international institutions that would constrain its own behavior, or spreading its system of government abroad. But to focus on this reluctance, and the reassuring Chinese statements reflecting it, is a mistake.

In the race to lure companies looking for alternative sites amid the U.S.-China trade war, Vietnam wields a slew of advantages over its rivals. Vietnam was ranked No. 1 among seven emerging Asian countries as manufacturing destinations by Natixis SA, which looked at demographics, wages and electricity costs, rankings in doing business and logistics, and manufacturing as a share of total foreign direct investment. – Bloomberg

RICH LOWRYHow Theresa May blew BrexitShakespeare famously wrote of the “sceptered isle” of Britain acting as a moat “against the envy of less happier lands.” Lately, the less happier lands are winning in a rout….

European Union leaders on Wednesday called on Britain to give them a clear plan to split from Europe amid concern that the political chaos that led to a historic defeat for British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan could lead to an uncontrolled departure. May was widely expected to lose Tuesday’s vote in the British Parliament on the withdrawal agreement she negotiated with the E.U. – Washington Post​Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence in Parliament on Wednesday, but that did little to quell the turmoil gripping the British government over her plan to leave the European Union, coming a day after she suffered a historic defeat on that proposal. – New York Times

You can’t be pro-jobs without being pro-tradeMichael R. Strain | Bloomberg Opinion The solution to the challenges brought by international trade is not to erect walls around the US. Instead, public policy needs to do a better job of helping workers manage the difficult adjustments that are required by a dynamic economy.

Amir Idris writes: South Sudan now trembles constantly from political instability. The United States should care because it has interconnected interests in South Sudan. These are focused on three strategic policy objectives: countering terrorism, utilizing development, and promoting democracy and governance. […]the United States must recognize the threat of changing regional dynamics, and seek to engage in finding solutions for sustainable peace in South Sudan that could present openings for U.S. democracy and governance programs in the region. – The Hill

Serbia’s prime minister suggested on Wednesday that any creation of a standing army in Kosovo could provoke a military intervention by Belgrade, two decades after Kosovo Albanians’ uprising against Serbian rule. – Reuters