Unlocking Winners

Handicapping strategies and picks for top Thoroughbred races

August 2013 - Posts

Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?" "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for...Read More

The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK. When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed. It's also frowned upon to say, "Decide...Read More

The Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, Del Mar, Polytrack, Three-and-Up, One Mile and One Quarter Local Post Time - 5:10pm PT Sunday Get Pacific Classic Day PPs at TimeformUS The Pacific Classic has 13 entrants this year and no shortage of long resumes and good recent form. Richard's Kid has already won this race twice and he signalled that he's back in form by winning the Grade 3 Cougar II over this...Read More

The Grade 2 Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes, Saratoga, Inner Turf, Three-Year Old Fillies, One Mile and One Eighth Caroline Thomas (12-1) is a deep closer who has been subjected to one extremely slow pace after another. (Note that fractions rated to be particularly slow are shown in blue.) She also had some trouble at the start in her last which is not noted in the shorter chart comments you see...Read More

Sunday, Saratoga, Race 10, 5:45 PM EDT The Grade 2 Saratoga Special, Six and a Half Furlongs, Two-Year Olds And Up, Main Track Foal crop sizes have gotten smaller since the mid 1980s, and as a consequence, trainers have become much more patient in their handling of juveniles. When City Zip won the 2000 edition of the Saratoga Special, he did it while making the seventh start of his career. Fast-forward...Read More