Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on recordJune 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.

Sea ice extentSea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

For the last several hours the core of the heaviest convection in the W. cenral GOM has remained nearly stationary, as it appears to me. The shear appear to be decreasing as an UL high appears to be building over the blob, as the convection continues to expand and deepen.

Now I have been watching the Blob in the GOM and it does have high pressure aloft, also the sheer is falling aswell.... Now not to get to carried away but this could be a TD by the time it goes into TX/LA coast...

Now as for the Atlantic there are signs that show something forming out there by the end of next week but if it does we will have a long time to watch it.... Remember it takes approx: 10 - 12 days for a storm to cross the Atlantic....

Dr Masters thanks for the update, and with all due respect I think that the Tropics will start to heat up as it does this time of year...

P.S....I'm not saying the GOM blob will turn into Chantal...just noting conditions. You have to admit that the increase in convection in just 7 hours has been quite impressive...someone between La. and the Fla panhandle is gonna get lots of rain.

It is a compilation of comments you left on Dr. Masters July 24 Blog concerning evacuation. I believe these comments are worth saving in a more accessible form for others to read. I have copied these comments, (over 120 comments by about 40 WU members)and it is my first entry.

I think shear is more like 15 nots in the Western Gulf, and more like 5 knots East of the Western La. line (drawn south). It's an unpredictable season, we'll see. Here is a chart of steering current and shear:Steering and Shear in the Gulf

didnt realize the steering currents were that weak..so are they like that all over the basin? if something forms out of this the worst would be to have it slowly build and strengthen and then sllloooooowwwwwllllyyyy pass over the islands that cant really take much rain and much less so much time of storm conditions.

i mean... Man-Yi was a big thing but a fast mover and it seems that it didnt do as much damage as if could have if it wouldve been moving at a normal pace for the type of storms we see over here.

900 no chance for the gulf system...its going to be nothing but a rainmaker guy....la ms and texas will get the heaviest of the rain from this system....the system coming off the african coast will be chantal on the 3rd of august...watch this sst are rising and ssp are falling off the african coast...like i said everything is a go....StormKat

Dr. M is very good with his analysis, and with the exception of Barry which threw a curve ball, Dr. M has been right on the money so far on development issues; given the fact that shear cannot be exactly predicted for more than 2-3 days, that it is high now and, the proximity of the GOM blob to land, I do not think that this will be tropical threat (but it will be rain threat)....

Can't relate at all to the 4th warmest June on record. Save for a couple days, it's been so cool and wet here in Texas, it's like we haven't even had a real summer...yet. Was actually cold outside in the rain last night.

Gulf system still has a chance..given direction it will have plenty of travel over very warm waters. Remember Barry wasn't given a chance with similar shear..I'd still keep an eye out.Big wave coming off of Africa has a chance, but still seems too early for something off of Africa with pretty avg temps over CATL.

Regarding global warming, has there ever been any quantitative study published that instead of analyzing emmissions and gases, has just analyzed the amount of heat that we are putting into the atmosphere?

We all know that temperatures are hotter in cities than rural areas. Could the heating of the globe be the cumulative effect of urban heating?

After all, that CO2 coming out of your exhaust pipe is HOT. A/Cs shoot heat into the atmosphere. Concrete traps heat. Everytime we use any energy at all, heat is created. Maybe we're just creating heat faster than it dissipates out into space?

it wont be boaring for long as i said august 3rd we will have our first hurricane of the season...gentlemen and ladies start your engines its time to get really serious....dont worry about the area in the GOM to much shear and that low over texas wlll kill anything from happeneing...next week look out especially the caribbean sea its going to be very active few months...it will be interesting...StormKat

laggie, I am not sure we are going to see this big strong high either. I think it will be much stronger then last year, but Dr M stated a couple of blogs back that he expected to see a series of weak troughs that will temporarily erode the high and then allow it to build back. IMHO this is fairly normal for H season, and is a likely scenario for this year.

A week or so ago, Dr. Masters noted that the A/B high was forecasted to shift west and that we needed to be cognizant of a possible shift in the steering currents. This shift would raise the possibility of any tropical formation being directed away from the east coast and more towards the GOM.

Has anyone noted from the models that this westawrd shift episode was fairly shortlived as it appears that it(the A/B high) keeps shifting a little north and east and, in general, shrinking in coverage? If I am misreading/misunderstanding, please do not hesitate to correct me. That's how I learn.

Been reading the NOVEL, STATE OF FEAR by Chrichton which constantly debunks global warming. Then I did a google search on global warming and found a bunch of studies saying no such thing happening. So what up with that?

Be sure to listen to our own sandcrab,Butch Loper tonight on the BarometerBob Show.Hes the Emergency Manager for Jackson County,Mississippi. Bobs interview with Butch is sure to be a good listen They will discuss the Upgrades to Emergency Preparedness in Mississippi,as well as His experience with Hurricane Katrina and after.A link to the site can be found on my blog. Thanks