The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!

Many fantasy football draft strategies involve owners projecting
the statistical performance of players. Although the Gut Check has
veered away from projecting stats for every offensive skill player
with a likelihood of contributing on a roster, there are still a
large percentage of people that either project their own stats,
or at least consult the projected stats of others. The Gut Check
uses the Cheatsheet Compiler
and Draft Buddy as a stats projections resource. These are reasonable
figures and they are calculated with a basic historical understanding
of NFL stats, which shouldn’t be understated.

Not all fantasy owners have this understanding. Yours truly heard
someone recently mention “the days of the 400-carry per
game back” are over. Considering there are only 5 backs
in 37 seasons that even hit this mark, the owner with this impression
might be at a disadvantage when projecting running back performance.
There are definitely more owners out there with this lack of knowledge.
Therefore, the Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview
of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall
or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation
of players.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Runners

The key components one must consider when projecting running
back performance:

Total Fantasy Points

Attempts

Rushing Yards

Rushing Touchdowns

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving Touchdowns

Seems obvious, right? Not necessarily. Otherwise there wouldn’t
be so many flawed projections among fantasy owners.

Fantasy Points—One would
think with all the RBBC talk that the top backs would score fewer
points in recent years than they did previously. The numbers show
otherwise. These point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy
league: 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving and 6 points
per touchdown:

Yrs

RB1

RB2

RB3

RB4

RB5

RB6

RB7

RB8

RB9

RB10

RB11

RB12

RB13

RB14

RB15

RB16

RB17

RB18

RB19

RB20

78-88

277

260

245

231

220

209

203

198

191

187

183

180

174

168

164

160

156

153

149

146

89-99

306

274

254

237

222

212

202

197

192

186

179

174

170

164

160

153

150

146

143

138

00-06

364

322

303

282

263

253

245

233

224

211

205

202

195

189

187

184

181

176

172

169

The top 10 RBs of this decade were on average, 40-55 points better
than those in the decade of the 90s. There may be more committees
(which is debatable), but the points are flowing at an unprecedented
rate for the top 20 backs in fantasy football. In fact, look at
the amount of the top fantasy performances for backs since 1978
that occurred in the past decade:

Top
Fantasy Performances Since '78

Last

First

FPts

Year

Rush Att

Rush Yds

Rush Tds

Rec

Rec Yd

Rec Td

Tomlinson

LaDainian

418.3

2006

348

1815

28

56

508

3

Faulk

Marshall

374.9

2000

253

1359

18

81

830

8

Holmes

Priest

373

2003

320

1420

27

74

690

0

Holmes

Priest

372.7

2002

313

1615

21

70

672

3

Smith

Emmitt

364.8

1995

377

1773

25

62

375

0

Alexander

Shaun

363.8

2005

370

1880

27

15

78

1

Davis

Terrell

360.5

1998

392

2008

21

25

217

2

Green

Ahman

345

2003

355

1883

15

50

367

5

Dickerson

Eric

341.2

1983

390

1808

18

51

404

2

Faulk

Marshall

340.7

2001

260

1382

12

83

765

9

Tomlinson

LaDainian

339

2003

313

1645

13

100

725

4

James

Edgerrin

338.3

2000

387

1709

13

63

594

5

Johnson

Larry

335.3

2005

336

1750

20

33

343

1

Johnson

Larry

333.9

2006

416

1789

17

41

410

2

Jackson

Steven

329.4

2006

346

1528

13

90

806

3

Williams

Ricky

323.6

2002

383

1853

16

47

363

1

Sanders

Barry

319.8

1997

335

2053

11

33

305

3

Smith

Emmitt

318.8

1992

373

1713

18

59

335

1

James

Edgerrin

315.9

1999

369

1553

13

62

586

4

Allen

Marcus

315.4

1985

380

1759

11

67

555

3

Faulk

Marshall

314.9

1999

253

1381

7

87

1048

5

Smith

Emmitt

314.5

1994

368

1484

21

50

341

1

Anderson

Jamal

312.5

1998

410

1846

14

27

319

2

Lewis

Jamal

311.1

2003

387

2066

14

26

205

0

Dickerson

Eric

308.4

1984

379

2105

14

21

139

0

Tomlinson

LaDainian

307.2

2002

372

1683

14

79

489

1

Alexander

Shaun

306.6

2004

353

1696

16

23

170

4

Barber

Tiki

305

2005

357

1860

9

54

530

2

Tomlinson

LaDainian

303.2

2005

339

1462

18

51

370

2

Wilder

James

300.9

1984

407

1544

13

85

685

0

Out of the top 30 fantasy performances for running backs 23 occurred
in the past decade—and 18 in the last 6 seasons. All-time
highs in fantasy production from runners continue to occur with
increasing regularity. In fact, 7 of the top 30 performances occurred
in the last two seasons—the same time RBBCs are supposedly
taking the NFL by storm.

The average attempts for these top 30 performances are nearly
355 carries. The most coming from Larry Johnson’s 416 totes
of the rock in 2006 and the least from Marshall Faulk in 1999
and 2000 with 253 attempts.

One should also include total touches within one’s projection
strategy since they contribute to the overall fantasy performance.
The average total touches for the top 30 fantasy performances
are 410—a very safe number to use as a maximum figure for
projecting the stats of the #1 RB for the 2007 season.

One could go higher, but it’s important to keep in mind
that LT’s all-time best output last year came off 404 touches
and James Wilder’s 30th-ranked performance came from an
all-time high of 492 touches. More touches don’t necessarily
dictate more points once one gets to this rarified air of performance.
The difference is with a player’s ability to score touchdowns.

The question one should ask after seeing these stats is not about
RBBCs, but how much wide receiver performance has increased since
1978. Has the increase in WR performance outpaced that of the
running backs? If the case, it would be the reason why RBs may
seem less valuable to fantasy owners than in previous years.

Yrs

WR1

WR2

WR3

WR4

WR5

WR6

WR7

WR8

WR9

WR10

WR11

WR12

WR13

WR14

WR15

WR16

WR17

WR18

WR19

WR20

78-88

209

182

171

163

159

152

146

142

139

136

132

129

126

124

121

120

118

116

113

111

89-99

232

209

196

187

180

176

173

166

162

160

154

151

145

143

142

139

137

133

132

129

00-06

237

218

203

196

189

186

184

179

175

168

166

162

157

155

153

148

146

144

142

140

But after viewing this chart, the difference in recent production
to previous years isn’t as great for receivers as it is
for backs. In fact, the difference in points between the 1st and
5th-ranked RB is far greater (102) than the 1st and 5th-ranked
WR (47). This follows suit with the difference between the #6
RB and #12 RB (52.6 pts) and the #6 and #12 WR (23.9 pts). The
20th-ranked WR is only 100 points back from the top WR, but the
#20 RB is nearly 200 points back. From the Gut Check’s point
of view, this data means it is more important to pick 3-4 backs
early in a draft and hope to hit on two of them because this is
where the greatest deficit of points occurs with consistency on
a fantasy roster. In other words, it’s much easier to find
receivers in the mid-to-late rounds that will hold their own against
one’s competition than it is to find a quality back. It’s
truly a mystery why people are abandoning the stud back approach
in most any non-PPR draft scenario.

These fantasy point totals should also give one a good idea where
to cap their projections. Just because Ladainian Tomlinson had
the best fantasy year ever, doesn’t mean it is the start
of a trend. The differential in points between backs versus wide
receivers already demonstrates how valuable the runner is in fantasy
football—there is no need to go overboard.

Attempts—Since the NFL
went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 179 runners
with at least 300 attempts—around 4.7 runners per year on
average. But let’s see how many have been split by year.

For such talk about RBBCs it’s apparent there are far more
300-carry runners since 1995 than the previous 17 years and the
trend is still moving upward. Wouldn’t the trend be going
the opposite direction if the doom and gloom of committees were
true? It appears the safe bet for 2007 is to anticipate 9-10 runners
hitting the 300-carry mark with 6-7 of these players attaining
at least 240 fantasy points. The average amount of receivers reaching
that same 240 fantasy-point mark is zero—these figures still
show why taking a shot at two backs early is a good decision.

Rushing Yardage—The average
rushing total for the all-time top 30 performances was approximately
1715 yards. Anything over that figure for the top fantasy back
on an annual basis is likely too optimistic. The 1000-yard mark
was once the indicator of a productive year for a runner. In a
12-game season, 1000 yards equated to 83.3 yards per contest and
this was when this yardage figure became popular among the media.
To maintain this average over a 14-game season, the standard mark
should have been 1166 yards—not a media-friendly figure.
Now in the era of 16-game seasons, the figure should be set more
accurately at 1333 yards—or 1300 yards to keep it simple.
How many 1300-yard performances per year have there been since
1978?

As with attempts per season, the number of backs hitting the
1300-yard mark has increased overall since 1978. The most interesting
pattern with this graph is the downward corrections that occur
in alternating seasons or sometimes every 2-3 seasons. Despite
these corrections, there has not been a period in nearly 40 years
where the number of 1300-yard backs has dropped in consecutive
seasons. Injuries certainly play a role in these corrections—Clinton
Portis and Curtis Martin were two 1300-yard backs in 2005 that
could be healthy for 2006. Retirement or job-loss (free agency
or the 1300-yard rusher returning to a supporting role—Mike
Anderson for example) also has an influence on these figures.
2006 appears to a correction attributed to injury and rookies
splitting time with incumbent veterans (Jones-Drew, Bush, Addai,
Maroney, and Williams). With the trending above, it’s likely
that 2007 will see an increase of 2-4 runners with at least 1300
yards. It’s worth noting the top fantasy performances of
all-time only had three instances where a back gained less than
1400-yards and all three came from Marshall Faulk who had no less
than 765 receiving yards in each of these years—nearly 300
yards higher than the average production on this list.

Rushing Touchdowns—When
a score in most fantasy leagues is worth roughly one third to
one half the fantasy points of the average game from a runner
ranked from 5th to 10th overall, that should tell you why it is
so important to draft backs with a propensity for reaching the
end zone. Here are the top 26 touchdown performances from backs
during the era of the 16-game season (1978-2006):

Top 26
- TD Performances Since '78

Last Name

First Name

Rush TDs

Year

FPts

Tomlinson

LaDainian

28

2006

418.3

Alexander

Shaun

27

2005

363.8

Holmes

Priest

27

2003

373

Smith

Emmitt

25

1995

364.8

Riggins

John

24

1983

281.6

Morris

Joe

21

1985

280.8

Smith

Emmitt

21

1994

314.5

Allen

Terry

21

1996

280.7

Davis

Terrell

21

1998

360.5

Holmes

Priest

21

2002

372.7

Johnson

Larry

20

2005

335.3

Campbell

Earl

19

1979

293.1

Muncie

Chuck

19

1981

264.6

Smith

Emmitt

18

1992

318.8

Faulk

Marshall

18

2000

374.9

Rogers

George

18

1986

230.7

Dickerson

Eric

18

1983

341.2

Tomlinson

LaDainian

18

2005

303.2

Davis

Stephen

17

1999

253.6

Tomlinson

LaDainian

17

2004

285.6

Johnson

Larry

17

2006

333.9

Williams

Ricky

16

2002

323.6

Alexander

Shaun

16

2004

306.6

Bell

Greg

16

1988

241.6

Alexander

Shaun

16

2002

271.5

Sanders

Barry

16

1991

287.5

Note how difficult it is for a runner to average 1 score per
game—do this and you’re close to attaining rarified
air. The average amount of touchdowns for the top fantasy performances
in the history of the 16-game season is just over 1 score per
game.

But once again, this data continues to discredit the idea that
the NFL is going to an RBBC system that will ruin fantasy football
strategy, as we know it. Twelve of the 26 players on this list
attained these all-time highs in the past six years. Plus, no
RB on this list had less than 240 fantasy points, that magic mark
in common with 300-carry backs and annual top-10 fantasy point
performers in the past six years. In fact, the average amount
of total carries for the backs on this list was 339.

In other words, these backs aren’t redzone specialists—they
are prolific, all-purpose runners. Smith, Tomlinson and Alexander
appear three times on this list. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson
appear twice. Despite five runners taking up nearly half the space
on this list, there are several backs in the past six seasons
with double-digit scores and feature back fantasy totals.

The backs on this list are all bell cow backs—players that
got the ball in just about every type of down and distance situation
and were the centerpiece of the offensive game plan. Backs that
didn’t make this list but were not far off included workhorses
such as Clinton Portis, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Eddie George,
Jamal Lewis, Deuce McCallister, Willie Parker, Corey Dillon, Rudi
Johnson, Curtis Martin, and Edgerrin James. That’s 11 backs
in addition to Tomlinson, Alexander, and Johnson that spent most
of their career as featured backs.

It seems the problem with picking featured backs in a fantasy
draft has more to do with picking the right backs with sustained
performance or on the ascent rather than choosing a back going
in the opposite direction. The stats show there are more high-quality
producers at RB with greater overall productivity than their counterparts
at receiver than ever before in the history of a 16-game NFL season.

Receptions—The average
number of receptions for the 30 backs on the all-time fantasy
point list is 55.5, nearly 3.5 receptions per game. This is about
one-third to one-half the total of top receivers on a yearly basis,
but this is to be expected from a position where their primary
touches are generally carries. Yet, there are runners that had
much higher reception totals and posted huge fantasy seasons—Marshall
Faulk is an obvious example. But is a high reception count in
a non-point per reception league really an indicator for high
fantasy production from the running back position?

Top 30
- Rec Performances Since '78

Last Name

First Name

Rec

FPts

Year

Centers

Larry

101

145.6

1995

Tomlinson

LaDainian

100

339

2003

Centers

Larry

99

173.1

1996

Craig

Roger

92

296.6

1985

Garner

Charlie

91

256.3

2002

Jackson

Steven

90

329.4

2006

Anderson

Richie

88

103.6

2000

Bush

Reggie

88

178.7

2006

Young

Rickey

88

148.1

1978

Faulk

Marshall

87

314.9

1999

Loville

Derek

87

216.5

1995

James

Lionel

86

202.3

1985

Faulk

Marshall

86

282.7

1998

Wilder

James

85

300.9

1984

Faulk

Marshall

83

340.7

2001

Cooper

Earl

83

182.7

1980

Brown

Ted

83

223.7

1981

Washington

Joe

82

205.4

1979

Byars

Keith

81

114

1990

Faulk

Marshall

81

374.9

2000

Craig

Roger

81

187.4

1986

Andrews

William

81

275.6

1981

Anderson

Gary

80

185.3

1986

Woolfolk

Butch

80

150.6

1985

Centers

Larry

80

88.3

2000

Faulk

Marshall

80

209

2002

Centers

Larry

80

102

2001

Tomlinson

LaDainian

79

307.2

2002

Harmon

Ronnie

79

138.9

1992

Bennett

Edgar

78

170.9

1994

The answer is no. Only 11 of the top 30 all-time reception performances
from the 16-game era actually earned 240 or more fantasy points.
When one scans the list of runners, the reason becomes more obvious:
several of the backs were fullbacks or role players that were
fed the ball primarily as receivers out of the backfield and not
as runners. Larry Centers, Richie Anderson, Earl Cooper, Keith
Byars, and Ronnie Harmon were all fullbacks or 3rd down backs.
In fact, the great Joe Washington was considered one of the first
situational backs in the 16-game era. Larry Centers actually appears
on this list 4 times in his career.

Marshall Faulk appears on this list a record 5 times, and 4 of
his appearances coincide with highly productive fantasy totals.
Faulk, Tomlinson, and Garner, followed in the footsteps of 49er
Roger Craig and Falcon William Andrews—all-purpose backs
who were also excellent receivers and utilized as such. Stephen
Jackson appears to be the next in line to make his mark.

What about Reggie Bush? On the surface, the Saints runner seems
to fit the profile of the specialty backs from the Joe Washington-Larry
Centers-Ronnie Harmon, camp. The Gut Check doesn’t believe
Bush’s career will remain as that of a 3rd down back/role
player out of the backfield, but 2007 won’t likely be the
time his role changes too dramatically—as long as Deuce
McCallister remains a healthy Saint.

With only 3-4 exceptions, a back with 75 or more receptions has
not been the prolific fantasy producer in non-PPR leagues. But
what about leagues where backs get an extra point per reception?
Do the prolific pass catchers out of the backfield earn more points
than the bell cow backs between the tackles? If the answer is
yes, then draft strategies in point per reception leagues should
take a more radical departure from traditional scoring leagues.

First, let’s determine the top 30 fantasy performances
for running backs in point per reception leagues. The Gut Check
will spare his beleaguered editor another table, but he’ll
give you the highlights—while there were changes with the
players’ spots in the rankings, only two backs from the
traditional scoring leagues didn’t make the PPR list. The
regular scoring setup included Jamal Lewis and Jamal Anderson,
but the PPR setup had William Andrews and Roger Craig in their
place. The backs on the PPR list only average a half a reception
more per game than their non-PPR counterparts. This indicates
that in most cases, the top scoring fantasy backs in non-PPR leagues
are generally just as effective in PPR setups. There are going
to be a few exceptions in any given year and though this is good
to know in specific situations involving 2-3 runners, most backs
gain a majority of their points on the ground. Of course the runners
that are true dual threats will have greater overall value in
a PPR league but make sure they are the primary runners in their
offense before pulling the trigger ahead of some of the workhorses
on the ground.

Top 30
- Rec Yd Performances Since '78

Last Name

First Name

FPts

Rec Yds

Year

Faulk

Marshall

314.9

1048

1999

James

Lionel

202.3

1027

1985

Craig

Roger

296.6

1016

1985

Centers

Larry

145.6

962

1995

Garner

Charlie

256.3

941

2002

Harmon

Ronnie

138.9

914

1992

Faulk

Marshall

282.7

908

1998

Kirby

Terry

162.4

874

1993

Anderson

Gary

185.3

871

1986

Anderson

Richie

103.6

853

2000

Walker

Herschel

241.4

837

1986

Faulk

Marshall

374.9

830

2000

Lee

Amp

110.9

825

1997

Byars

Keith

114

819

1990

Woolfolk

Butch

150.6

814

1985

Jackson

Steven

329.4

806

2006

Centers

Larry

173.1

766

1996

Faulk

Marshall

340.7

765

2001

Allen

Marcus

300.6

758

1984

Washington

Joe

205.4

750

1979

Bush

Reggie

178.7

742

2006

Andrews

William

275.6

735

1981

Tomlinson

LaDainian

339

725

2003

Byars

Keith

147.3

721

1989

Barber

Tiki

226.5

719

2000

Watters

Ricky

225.6

719

1994

Walker

Herschel

208.6

715

1987

Byars

Keith

182.2

705

1988

Young

Rickey

148.1

704

1978

Westbrook

Brian

205.5

703

2004

Receiving Yards—This
stat has a slightly bigger impact for non-PPR leagues. Here are
the top 310 yardage figures since 1978. Exactly half of the all-time
best at receiving yardage in the 16-game era reached the aforementioned,
240-fantasy point benchmark. This is still not as great an indicator
for success as the rushing stats, but the best fantasy point performers
were once again backs that were primary runners for their squad—William
Andrews, Marshall Faulk, Stephen Jackson, and Roger Craig—as
opposed to the more one-dimensional producers such as Terry Kirby,
Amp Lee, Larry Centers, and Ronnie Harmon. While these one-dimensional
backs can make solid bye-week fill-ins, they are not every week
starters in non-PPR leagues.

The Gut Check’s advice is not to project more than one
runner with anything higher than 700 yards receiving. Last year
there were two, but this was the first time in 6 years that more
than one back had such a productive season with yardage gained
through the air. This is the type of perspective a fantasy owner
should have when considering projections of any type—his
own or someone else’s.

Eleven of these performers on this list scored less than 200
fantasy points! In fact, half of the top ten receiving performances
for a back since the advent of a 16-game season resulted in less
than 200 fantasy points—a clear indication these were role
players. Does this mean they were a part of an RBBC? Sure, but
the Gut Check believes RBBCs often come into play when there is
a reason for a team to lack confidence in their #1 RB due to injury
or mediocre performance. Larry Centers and Ronnie Harmon were
performing for teams with dreadful running attacks in the 1990s.
Terry Kirby was a part of a Dolphins squad that rarely had a significant
ground attack during the Dan Marino era.

Top 30
- Rec TD Performances Since '78

Last Name

First Name

FPts

Rec TDs

Year

Hoard

Leroy

138.1

9

1991

Faulk

Marshall

340.7

9

2001

Anderson

Gary

185.3

8

1986

Faulk

Marshall

374.9

8

2000

Cribbs

Joe

225.5

7

1983

Cribbs

Joe

230

7

1981

Centers

Larry

173.1

7

1996

Brooks

James

205.8

6

1988

Smith

Steve

82.1

6

1988

Washington

Joe

158.6

6

1983

Hill

Calvin

104.3

6

1978

Thomas

Thurman

263.3

6

1989

Craig

Roger

296.6

6

1985

Hill

Calvin

75.4

6

1980

Anderson

Neal

164.1

6

1992

James

Lionel

202.3

6

1985

Williams

John

157.6

6

1989

Westbrook

Brian

205.5

6

2004

Bryant

Kelvin

125.6

5

1987

Oliver

Hubert

121.5

5

1983

Bryant

Kelvin

130.5

5

1988

Thomas

Thurman

275.8

5

1991

Johnson

Kyle

52.9

5

2005

Jones

Bill

48.4

5

1990

Byars

Keith

90.2

5

1994

Pruitt

Greg

86.1

5

1980

Tyler

Wendell

253

5

1981

Williams

Dave

111.5

5

1979

Watters

Ricky

225.6

5

1994

Harmon

Clarence

100.1

5

1979

Receiving TDs—Of the
best receiving touchdown performances for a season in the 16-game
era, only 6 of the 30 players reached the 240-point benchmark.
Unlike rushing touchdowns, scoring through the air lacks any significant
correlation to high levels of fantasy production from running
backs. The exceptions were Thurman Thomas, Marshall Faulk and
Roger Craig—re-known all-purpose backs.

If there’s anything a fantasy owner should take from these
stats is an understanding that projecting anything within the
range of each of these tables is approaching the best performances
of all-time. Therefore, one should use these numbers as a statistical
ceiling. One could take the chance since in recent years there
have been a significant number of high-end performances, but it
will definitely be wisest to avoid projecting receiving yards/tds
at a level where the trend isn’t moving in the direction
of bigger, better numbers. In addition, understand that two starting
quality RBs still provide far more points than receivers. In the
Gut Check’s opinion, it’s still best to grab at least
one back within the first two rounds and three RBs within the
first five to six of one’s draft picks.

A Special Postscript About RB Tandems

With all the hoopla about committees, the Gut Check researched
the top RBBCs since the advent of the 16-game season (1978). What
he found was that there were several duos where both backs played
more than 80% of the season’s games and scored enough fantasy
points individually to both be considered top 30 backs in any
given year. Interestingly enough, the top 10 duos consisted of
9 teams from the 70s and 80s and only one duo in the 21st century—the
Jaguars tandem of Jones and Taylor in 2006.

So yours truly will end this article with a table of the top
10 RB tandems. He suggests you look them over and ponder the fact
that only two other tandems from 2000-2006 were even in the top
30 duos (Denver’s Bell and Anderson in 2005 and the Bush-McCallister
duo in 2006). It is rare to find a duo that plays even 70% of
the season and produces at a high enough level to consider them
a committee. The Bush-McCallister/Jones-Taylor pairings are indeed
rare for the fact one can get relatively close production from
either member of the backfield. It is even less common for these
tandems to continue such a high level of production as a duo for
more than a year.