Some Relief from the Storm...

March 12, 2018

Another chaotic week of news, but this time the markets ended at a high point. Gary Cohn’s decision to leave the White House in a disagreement over the tariff decision caused a significant sell-off early in the week.

U.S. and Them

March 5, 2018

Last week was the 45th anniversary of the release of maybe the greatest album of all time. So, it was only fitting that I was listening to the track ‘Us and Them’ while at the same time, trying to decipher the surprising news of the steel and aluminum tariffs.

The Rebirth of Volatility

February 26, 2018

Four years ago, I wrote a Weekly Research Briefing focused on the death of volatility. It was fairly easy to write given the certainty of Janet Yellen’s communication for the Fed to be the backstop for any errant items in the economy or global marketplace.

Time to Put on Your Dance Shoes

February 20, 2018

If you thought that the Winter Olympics were tough for Team U.S.A., just wait until you see the task at hand this week. We need to sell a quarter of a trillion dollars in Treasuries to many foreign buyers in a market with vertical interest rates and a falling U.S. dollar.

Shifting Sands

February 12, 2018

Just like a desert storm, the shift in market sentiment came quickly. And last week’s change not only hit risky instruments like equities, but it also sandblasted government bonds, credit and commodities (even gold!). This event is going to leave a mark on investors’ minds for some time.

A Healthy Wipeout?

February 5, 2018

The increasing turbulence in the bond market finally caused our long ride on the equity wave to end. Our virtual worry-free ride was almost two years in duration. We could see the rocks of volatility building under the surface as a red hot global economy stoked the ripples of inflation.

Keep Focused

January 29, 2018

Well, you know what they say about a strong January. The equity markets received a big boost last week from strong Corporate Earnings, a good Q4 GDP report, a weak U.S. Dollar, and surging commodity prices. Everything is good… Maybe too good.

Keep Focused

January 22, 2018

The market seems to care little about the Government shutdown, Congressional ineptitude or POTUS twitter. As long as the synchronized global economy remains in a positive trend, earnings come in as expected, and inflation remains in a lock box, the appetite for riskier assets will continue.

Melting Upward

January 16, 2018

All of this economic activity is not only firing up welding rods, but it is increasing the values of our investment portfolios. Risk assets continue to be bought across the board while Treasuries remain for sale. Market breadth widens, while new all-time highs hit levels that I haven’t seen in 10 years.

Why up so high?

January 7, 2018

Many are asking how far can the market go? The better question might be what is going to stop its ascent? After finishing 2017 with strong gains, the first week of January did not disappoint. Earnings are starting this week and they are coming in hot, thanks to the roaring global economy plus the U.S. corporate income tax cuts.

The Sweet Dreams Portfolio of 2017

January 2, 2018

Most investors get judged at frequent intervals, especially equity investors. While the end client, be it Institutional or Retail, wants you to be invested for the long term, they can still see a fund or account performance on a daily basis. This can cause friction when client desires for continued outperformance do not line up with manager strategies…

"Laughing all the way..."

December 18, 2017

Do not be short Jingle Bells. In fact, you might even want to consider using the three-point harness on the Santa Rally this year because the market reindeer are very fired up. The Tax Bill is completed and will be signed this week. The Government will not shut down because Congress wants to leave the swamp for their winter holiday.

So many roads ahead…

December 11, 2017

Which road will Alabama take on Tuesday? Which road will the FOMC take on Wednesday? Which road will Congress go down as they have many decisions to make on the Tax Bill? As the stock market looks to wind up for its often ‘Santa Clause’ rally in the second half of December, there are some big items that are about to be decided on.

Rotation Time

December 4, 2017

With Tax Reform looking close to passing last week, the investing world quickly grabbed its tax trade crib notes and got busy rotating. I was surprised that the Fiscal Hawks capitulated so quickly, but it appeared that the urgency to get anything done in 2017 trumped throwing an extra trillion of debt onto the kids and grandkids.

Take a stance

November 27, 2017

I always felt that stock trading around the holidays revealed true conviction in the market. Those who wanted to buy or sell something participated and moved prices, while those who didn’t have a bias took the days off and avoided calling in or checking their iPhone.

Go Long Food Coma

November 20, 2017

The market will be in a food coma all week. Congress is gone until month-end, earnings releases will be few and volumes will grind to a crawl. Cooking plans and holiday shopping lists will get most of Wall Street’s attention this week.

A bit more challenging...

November 13, 2017

The stroll into solid year-end performance numbers just became a bit more challenging. While the markets continue to hope for signs of corporate tax relief, those plans may have been dramatically altered last week. First, the Senate released their tax work showing a delay in corporate income tax cuts until 2019 which was not welcome news.

More earnings? No problem.

November 6, 2017

Corporate America continues to exceed expectations as the bulk of the earnings season winds down. Both sales and earnings beats are above their historical averages as the global economy continues to pick up helping top-line beats, while also creating incremental margins to assist the in bottom-line beats.

Halo Time?

October 30, 2017

Did last week’s blowout earnings just throw a halo on the equity market? It sure as heck felt like it. Those that have worked with me, or have read my market missives over the last several years, know that I like to listen to (and not fight) the market.

The Early Catch...

October 23, 2017

Early corporate earnings have arrived and the reception is positive. Some big moves to the upside in IBM, Grainger, United Healthcare, Danaher and PayPal more than offset the disappointments in United Airlines, Genuine Parts and Procter & Gamble.

Feel the lift?

October 16, 2017

It is difficult not to see it, hear it, or feel it. The global expansion continues to gather steam and slowly, but surely, it is making its way through to supply and prices. For anyone in the business less than 10 years, this is how it feels. In Denver, you might raise an eyebrow at another skyscraper going up downtown…

Feel the lift?

October 9, 2017

It is difficult not to see it, hear it, or feel it. The global expansion continues to gather steam and slowly, but surely, it is making its way through to supply and prices. For anyone in the business less than 10 years, this is how it feels. In Denver, you might raise an eyebrow at another skyscraper going up downtown…

Good old days...

October 2, 2017

It was a great September and 3rd Quarter for the markets, but it has been a challenging one for the human spirit. Last night’s news out of Las Vegas, combined with the devastation from the hurricanes have weighed upon all of our hearts. Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by the many tragedies in the last month.

Green Light...

September 25, 2017

The Fed finally gave the signal to begin shrinking its balance sheet. As the Fed conveyed in its text release, and Janet emphasized in her Q&A, the economy is good and the time is right. And so it begins, although at a very slow pace.

Fear of Heights?

September 18, 2017

It was all-time equity highs across the board last week, as the global markets disregarded the North Korean fireworks in favor of buying 100-year Austrian bonds at a 2% yield. U.S. economic data began to feel the effects of the recent hurricanes (a pop in jobless claims to 284k)…

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