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“Coming on the heels of the massive tax cut approved in December, last week’s budget agreement was a breathtaking abdication of fiscal responsibility.” Thus, begins Lou Crandall’s MMO for Feb 12 and he could have taken those words from my mouth but beat me to the punch. Since I’ve stolen that, I might as well offer a version of a chart Lou used which is a variation on the theme of many I’ve sent out; the budget as a % of GDP. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

“I understand. You found paradise in America, had a good trade, made a good living…” thus begins the opening lines to “The Godfather” when Vito Corleone hears Bonasera’s request for justice. Think about it; we found paradise with our 401ks, had on good trades, and all that. Now, like Bonasera, we’d like the Don to make an offer the folks trading ETNs can’t refuse. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

It’s hard to be a bond bull when everyone everywhere is telling you it’s the end of the bond bull market, as if the rise from the absolute lows 100 plus bp ago and five Fed hikes wasn’t enough. Just about everything is about rising bond yields. Front page headlines read like the WSJ’s “Government Bonds Swoon World-wide” and the FT’s “Bond investors’ dash for the doors fuels concern about strength of equities rally” and those are merely the tip of the iceberg. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

There might be something disingenuous going on, but what do I know? I specifically refer to Washington, but I’ll expand that to the investment community, or at least some of it. In sum, let me rain on someone’s parade.
I read this week that Trump Administration leaked a $ trillion infrastructure plan which a few hours after it was leaked went to $1.7 trillion as announced by Trump -- that’s not a leak but a gush. The plan has that 50% of the appropriations for it going towards grants to public and private initiatives. Here’s a link to the original report (https://goo.gl/D4ge74). I’m not sure how this all works, but according to some of the reports on this the Administration has sought $200 bn in grants over 10-yr to “leverage” investment from state, local and private sources” to get to that $1 trillion and presumably more to get to $1.7 trillion. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Curious, have you come across anything recent about bonds yields rising? A Google search on “end of bond bull market” pulled up 13.3 million articles about that in 0.45 seconds. A search on “bond bear market” came up with 11.4 mn. In context, anything related to bond bull or market came up with 1-4 mn references. I guess that cat is out of the bag, huh? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

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