*OFFICIAL* Windsor Spitfires 2012-13 Season Thread (Part 8)

Even though the odds seemingly increased every day, I still think the ownership group owed it to the fans to still put in a bid for the tournament. To go one a 4 year campaign as all they talked about was 2014, to not put a bid in would shatter what little is left in the optimism around the club.

Where it goes when they aren't awarded the tournament is anyone's guess.

I would agree with that point of view. I guess if they don't get it they would be 0-2 now with this ownership and I would prefer if ownership stayed that they never bid again and waste their time with something that won't happen.

Not surprised on number 2 but why would they even continue the charade? Rychel can go but he better put this organization on better footing before he considers wanting to sell. Win a couple championships, get sanctions put on the organization, have the franchise bottom out and sell your share? Rychel would be hated in Windsor.

If they have been told they're not getting it, than the act is to fool all of us.

Doesn't WR only own something like 15% - so either Boughner buys out the rest, or a new non-hockey partner type is found from Windsor. Bigger issue with him leaving would be the need to find a GM - I don't think Boughner could pull off wearing both hats.

If Rychel does leave - it means we could trade Kerby as well. We'd have a huge sell off this off-season, epic firesale.

Rychel's share isn't that much I believe. Rychel leaving might be a good thing though. It's the cockiness and arrogance that has been a huge down fall for him and the spitfires

That's true I guess my concern is if the share is sold to a non hockey person, we have seen how that turns out. Cockiness and arrogance has probably been a downfall but why sell it? Why not try and make amends and start hitting the highway and work to get this organization better?

If they have been told they're not getting it, than the act is to fool all of us.

Doesn't WR only own something like 15% - so either Boughner buys out the rest, or a new non-hockey partner type is found from Windsor. Bigger issue with him leaving would be the need to find a GM - I don't think Boughner could pull off wearing both hats.

If Rychel does leave - it means we could trade Kerby as well. We'd have a huge sell off this off-season, epic firesale.

Does Dobrich have a % of ownership? If so it's probably very small. Maybe Boughner could be GM and you bring back DJ to coach the team. A guy can dream

If London gets the mem cup I would be done with this league, and it has nothing to do with the spits but if they get it for a 2nd time out of the last 4 it's a joke... I really don't care at this point if the spits do get it just not the Knights.

If London gets it it means that spending extra on players is a capital offense, but spending extra money to the league - well that's completely acceptable. So in order to keep parity in the league, richer teams cannot treat their players/families better - but they can take that extra revenue and pay off the league to host another Memorial Cup.

I hope if WR does leave, he rats out other teams on the way out.

I think Barrie gets it though. They've bid every time since joining the league, have a competitive team and the backing of the key components in Barrie.

If London gets it it means that spending extra on players is a capital offense, but spending extra money to the league - well that's completely acceptable. So in order to keep parity in the league, richer teams cannot treat their players/families better - but they can take that extra revenue and pay off the league to host another Memorial Cup.

I hope if WR does leave, he rats out other teams on the way out.

I think Barrie gets it though. They've bid every time since joining the league, have a competitive team and the backing of the key components in Barrie.

He doesn't have to rat out anybody, it's pretty evident, I mean common look at stolarz in London for example, he leaves school and he's off to London, or Gibson in Kitchener and so on I mean maybe those two weren't but your blind if you honestly bieleve there are no other teams in this league that haven't done it.

The difference is proof - two Windsor players were willing to sign statements against the team.

Realistically WR couldn't make any accusations without getting sued unless he has proof over and above hearsay from agents and the like saying "This is what Team X gives, so that's what I want from you".

If London gets it it means that spending extra on players is a capital offense, but spending extra money to the league - well that's completely acceptable. So in order to keep parity in the league, richer teams cannot treat their players/families better - but they can take that extra revenue and pay off the league to host another Memorial Cup.

I hope if WR does leave, he rats out other teams on the way out.

I think Barrie gets it though. They've bid every time since joining the league, have a competitive team and the backing of the key components in Barrie.

Barrie is no more competitive next yr then Windsor regardless of where they finish
this year, they lose their best off D-man Oconnor,Sheifele,Camara,Beyers,Neiderberger and probably Theoret
Barrie only 1 goalie back an 18 year old Fontinos,Zack Hall,Athanasiou,Eckblad
4 or 5 other D,4 or 5 forwards,while Windsor all 6 starters on D plus 3 others with
OHL experience,2-3 goalies if u include Pavelka,10 returning forwards with OHL including O/A candidate Giftopoulous,plus the ability to have 1 or 2 O/As depending whether Pavelka is kept or dealt,plus 2 possible Euros in the 1sr rd,1 drafted 10th,the other 30th approx
Barrie"s infrastructure is a concern as well
No doubt London has the best team projected returning,followed by Windsor ,then Barrie

I started to counter your logic, but instead I'm bookmarking this. Can't wait for next year.

Krazy kanuck

Here in detail is my logic regarding Windsor/Barrie who is projected to be more
competitive next yr
In terms of projected returning players excluding overagers which the committee
looks at is Windsor 19 players-1 Goalie,9D,9 forwards,Barrie-1 Goalie,7D,7Forwards
The total pts coming back forwards and D- Windsor 376,Barrie 228
Goals=Windsor-134 Barrie-79
Goals from D-Windsor-34 Barrie-11,Pts from the D-Windsor-126,Barrie-78
Goals from F-Windsor-100 Barrie-68,Pts from F- Windsor-250,Barrie-150

As noted I excluded overagers initially because thats what the committee will
look at in Barrie if u add Zach Hall,Mitchell Theoret and Alan Lepkowski u can add 94
pts along with 30 goals did not include Theorets pts with NF,and for Windsor add R
Giftopoulous which would add 8 goals and 15 pts,as well as goalie J,Pavelka
Point totals would be Barrie-322,Windsor-391
This still allows Windsor to add an O/A forward,while Barrie cant have another O/A
As well it leaves Barrie with only 1 goalie an !8 year old and while his numbers are
good for a team that is in the top 6-7 in the league Barrie loses 5 or 6 good players
Scheifele,Camara,Beyers,Oconnor and Niederberger their #1 goalie while Windsor loses 2 Koko ans Aleardi,Emerson Clark is an insignificant loss
21 players including 2 O/As for Windsor and 18 players for Barrie including 3 O/As
However Barrie still only has 1 goalie,they will need to trade for 1,probably a 19
year old for a price because u dont have wiggle room re your O/A situation
While Barrie has their 1st rd pick in the draft it will be a low pick 14-19
Windsor not having a 1st rd selection does have 2 1st rd picks including 1 in the top 11,and 1 in the top 35 or so
It should be these roster projections do not include drafts,,trades,free agent signings
and organizational depth for both teams,meaning players in the organizations who have yet to play an OHL game
As everyone can see goals and pts wise Windsor returns more next yr without or with
overagers included,2 goaltenders instead of 1 for Barrie,1 more O/A for Windsor to be
determined, 10 forwards instead of 9,or 9 instead of 7 excluding O/As for Barrie
The O/A situation will be critical for Barrie, the adding of a goalie important for both
If one includes Lepkowski on the Barrie def i would agree defensively Barrie would be
on a par though offensively Windsor would have a big edge
If Lepkowsiki were not to return then Windsor would have the better D period
Upfront Windsor I think has the edge with a chance to add an O/a,but a decided edge excluding O/As as Barrie only returns 7 forwards while has 9
At the end of the day the committee has to decide between the 2 teams who has a better chance to field a more competitive team
I feel my numbers project Windsor to be more competitive at this pt
Feel free to counter point krazy kanuck or others

At the end of the day the committee has to decide between the 2 teams who has a better chance to field a more competitive team
I feel my numbers project Windsor to be more competitive at this pt
Feel free to counter point krazy kanuck or others

I would have prefered to just bookmark the page and quote it next year, but now that you've put so much effort into I feel I should respond with something:

You keep mentioning that the Spits have two tenders and the Colts only 95 born Fotinos. You can't count Pavelka as a returnee then say the Spits have two imports. Let's say you do include him as a returnee, his results aren't all that great. If you don't, you compare Dekort to Fotinos (who are both 95 born). Neither has played much but at least Fotinos has played in meaningful games (especially last year when Niederberger was hurt). Many Colts fans thought they were (and should have) going to ride Fotinos this year because he looked better than Niederberger over that stretch and he was so much younger. It's even at best for the Spits, but given Alex's results and experience, I'd prefer him.

You have some quirks in your methods (not including Theoret's Niagara points) that I don't really understand. Are you including Keokkeok's Peterborough points? Seems like you are. Do you know that the committee will exclude OAs? I sure don't, and would think it ridiculous to not include likely returnees. You always write off Camara, but he hasn't signed with Boston yet and this is his first really good year. Not likely that he returns, but it's safe to say that Hall and to a lesser extent Theoret will (and if the latter doesn't, the Colts get additional compensation that could be traded). The Colts will likely have three very good OAs.

The Colts will definitely have two imports for 2014 as well (when Niederberger leaves they won't have any imports). They won't be as high as Windsor's, but the bigger issue is who can you convince to come over. I don't pretend to know all those players much less who either team might get, but to say the Spits will have a huge advantage there is an unknown at this point. The Colts do have more to trade...in terms of picks everywhere I read the Spits don't have one until the 3rd this year. Even if they do Windsor has 25 and 35 this year they have to trade those assets before the draft. The Colts will have 17 or so and can trade him before the season or at next year's trade deadline, and will have 3 third rounders to trade before the draft this year. As 1st rounders can't be dealt beyond this year's ironically the change in the penalty from first rounders to seconds gives the Spits less to trade for a build now.

You focus a lot on points for. The other side of the coin is goals against, and for all those players you've got returning the Spits are third from the bottom in goals against this year while the Colts are top 5. The Spits have given up 89 more goals this year (almost 50% more!) than the Colts have.

Finally you always want to discount this year's results because the Spits have had injuries. I won't dispute that, but the results are what they are. Moreover, the Colts have lost a number of games for key players and have much better won/loss results "with the guys who will be returning". Scheifele's missed 22, Camara 17, Ekblad 14, Lemieux 26, Lepkowski 8, and Theoret and handful since he came over. Most of those were missed because of camps, U20, and U18, late signings and the like so for the guys who are coming back there isn't the question of how they'll return from injury. At the end of the day both teams have missed players, but the Colts have managed to have a much better record with what was left. Yes they'll lose Sheifele and O'Connor, but the Spits will lose Koko and Aleardi.

I did not include Theoret pts with nor did I count Giftopoulous pts with Ottawa just their
pts with their new teams,and while I did include Koekkoek pts with Pet I also included
Dotchins pts with Owen Sd
As for Camara there is no chance he returns,I do think Hall does but I think the Islanders will sign Theoret
As for the Pavelka inclusion it t was for o/a purposes,while i know a team cant have 3 euros on the roster although there is a rule if an euro is a nhl 1st rder u can have 3
until he returns from nhl then u have to move 1,but when the committee goes over the
projected roster the euro draft has not occurred yet
You talk about goaltending,I would point out at the 30 game mark this season Dekort
ave was 3.08 and Pavelka"s was 3.12 and the team had a 500 record not as good as barrie,but goaltending wise numbers as good or better the Fontinos,also the number of games missed was less then 10 man games,during the last half of the season the man games missed due to injury is approx 100 ten times as much with bulk of it on the back end,which largely explains the high goals against,2 of the teams best dmen have missed
a good chunk of time since the trade deadline,Koekkoek 22 games,Seiloff 14 games, and Spits are only 2 under 500 in the 24 games since the trade deadline and that only occurred this weekend when there 6 and 7 guys out
When the Spits had everybody in the lineup for a stretch their goals against was well under 3
No question Spits have had more games missed due to injury then Barrie to those who are returning next yr especially on the back end
You will notice that I included pts for players returning with no o/as and pts for players returning including o/as and Windsor still returns more both on def and upfront in both situations
I know for sure the committee looks at possible returning O/As for each club with a critical and reasonable expectation that those potential o/as will return which is why
i did not include Camara,and have questions about Hall or Theoret
I have no doubts for Windsor that Giftopoulous and Pavelka would return should Windsor
wish to include them as part of their presentation
What would happen if the commitee expects Hall,Thoeret and Lepkowski too return and they all dont big difference,which is why i gave 2 different projected stats on returning players
At the end of the day London"s roster overall is better then Windsor and Barrie projecting
on who is returning
A case can be made for both Windsor and Barrie that each of their returning D excluding
O/A players project to be be better in regards to Windsor having 9 D-men,Barrie 7D-men and London 4D-men coming back with Ohl experience,however London has 2 goalies,Barrie and Windsor 1 each returning excluding O/As,London has 11 forwards,Windsor 9 and Barrie 7 reurning with ohl experience again excluding O/As
My view has not changed despite what u have brought up
Barrie stands to lose Scheifele,Camara,Beyers,OConnor,and Niederberger,while
Windsor loses Koko and Aleardi,while London loses Harrington,Hughes,Ferry and probably
Sefton all D men
Windsor in the end brings more offensive especially from the defence,defensively i would say even when everybody is healthy and I am including Lepkowski,for Barrie,and goaltending with Pavelka in an edge to Windsor,if Pavelka is out which might occur I gived a slight edge to Barrie,although has a goalie ready in the system to act as a back up,not sure if Barrie does have another goalie in the system

Wow you put so much effort into this I'm going to feel bad for the brevity of my reply:

- Yes the Colts have another tender in the system.
- The Colts have had to deal with missing the good players all at once as well.
- Some (many?) Colts fans would see the departures of O'Connor and especially Beyers as an improvement defensively.
- The Colts have highly touted/drafted players (i.e. Lemieux, Yuill, Garcia), who just don't get the minutes Ho Sang might.

I can make stats say anything I want them to as well. You have a lot of if this and if that in here. At the end of the day will the committee go into the level of situational analysis that you have or will the just say both teams are returning adequate players and this one achieved a lot more than that one? I guess we'll see.

Wow you put so much effort into this I'm going to feel bad for the brevity of my reply:

- Yes the Colts have another tender in the system.
- The Colts have had to deal with missing the good players all at once as well.
- Some (many?) Colts fans would see the departures of O'Connor and especially Beyers as an improvement defensively.
- The Colts have highly touted/drafted players (i.e. Lemieux, Yuill, Garcia), who just don't get the minutes Ho Sang might.

I can make stats say anything I want them to as well. You have a lot of if this and if that in here. At the end of the day will the committee go into the level of situational analysis that you have or will the just say both teams are returning adequate players and this one achieved a lot more than that one? I guess we'll see.

The Spits also have players highly touted/draftred ie Brown,Verbeek who did not see alot of ice time either,Hosang I expect to improve
I think the committee will look at all aspects situational and otherwise for both teams
they will try to project how the respecitive teams will do without the safety nets of
Schiefele.Camara,Koko?Aleardi,goatending for both with 18 year olds as the possible leading guys,rarely do 18 year olds lead their teams in goal
No doubt both teams are returning adequate players and i think the committee will
ultimately decide who can put together a more competitive team with all factors considered,especially the potential of all the players involved

I like Barrie's returnees better from what I've read here a s elsewhere.
It's not a pts thing or numbers returning. Althou these are factors, at times big factors, they are not the only ones and stats can be used or manipulated eg.
Talented kids playing on good teams may not score as much as less skilled kids getting ops ( special teams/ PT ect...)on a bad team
As well returnees are great but if they didnt do the job......
Give me high end returning talent from a winning team over lots of returnees from a group that underachieved any day.

I like Barrie's returnees better from what I've read here a s elsewhere.
It's not a pts thing or numbers returning. Althou these are factors, at times big factors, they are not the only ones and stats can be used or manipulated eg.
Talented kids playing on good teams may not score as much as less skilled kids getting ops ( special teams/ PT ect...)on a bad team
As well returnees are great but if they didnt do the job......
Give me high end returning talent from a winning team over lots of returnees from a group that underachieved any day.

I'm sorry but that makes very little sense to me. Players improve from year to year not all players stay static. Going by this theory you wouldn't believe the Soo could improve from last year because after all Cousins, Fritsch, Broll, Alderson, Sproul, Miller, Murray were all part of a poor team last year that didn't make the playoffs.

I've not made myself clear or ur looking at reading more into my post thans there.
Let me try and help
#1 I said its a factor, sometimes a big one ( in regards to returnees)
#2 in Windsors case a lot of the returnees are kids that were on an underacheiving team. A lot of the returnees aren't high end kids loaded with obvious potential to improve. ( I believe you have criticized the overall talent returning as well, but hey)
Yes kids can improve year to year, yes its expected and yes there are lots of examples.
There are however examples of stagnation,
Year after year underperforming as well.

JMO- give me Eckblad and Co over koekoek and co for next year.
It'll change when one of them is awarded the host gig and load up