Sneakernomics: Which Basketball Player Sells The Most Shoes?

Matt Powell
, ContributorSneakernomics: I write about the culture and business of sportsOpinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

I have released the marquee basketball shoe sales via
Twitter and other sources, but I’ve never provided any color on each player and their impact on the business. The posting will attempt to cover that.

The sales figures here are based on my analysis of the US retail data from SportsOneSource.com. The opinions are my own. “Marquee” is how the sneaker industry refers to player endorsed products.

All in all, of current marquee players, only LeBron James is offsetting the cost of his endorsement contract and it took him 10 years to achieve the sales necessary to do so. I think brands are not seeing the return on their endorsement investments in terms of sneaker sales. This is the reason we have not seen any big rookie shoe contracts since John Wall. The return is simply not there.

I think this lack of return is the reason that Nike has been willing to let elite players like Stephen Curry go to other brands. The cost of signing mega contracts just cannot be offset by sneaker sales. Brands need elite players wearing their shoes in order to authenticate their performance products. But they don’t have to over pay to get that result.

A decade ago, Jordan sales were about $1 billion. The first year for Air Jordan sales were about $100 million on the original shoe ($65). Jordan’s $500,000 endorsement contract (plus royalties) paid him more than the $600,000 that the Bulls paid him.

Jordan still earns a royalty on every shoe sold. He is involved with new product designs, although not a day to day basis.

2. Lebron James. 2013 $300 Million; 2012, $300 Million

James sales jumped 50% in 2012, but flattened out in 2013.

At $300 million ($165 million at wholesale), James’ sales are basically in line with his endorsement contract. The big athletic brands spend about 12-13% of sales on marketing (or as Nike calls it “demand creation”). James is paid $19 million a year to wear Nike. $19 million divided by 13% is $146 million, so by my quick calculation, James is selling enough shoes to cover his cost. But it took 10 years to cross that threshold.

It will be interesting to see if his 2014 sales grow. Early results do not look promising.

Durant clearly came into his own in 2013, with sales growing sharply. However, if we use my marketing cost method, he is not yet justifying his $17 million contract. In order to meet that threshold, Durant would have to generate $130 million wholesale sales ($235 million retail).

It appears Durant is gaining again in 2014, although we have much of the year still in front of us.

With Rose injured again in 2013, sales were likely suppressed. We need to see a full season of play to fully assess his ability to sell shoes.

Given the size of his contract, it is unlikely that he will very be able to offset his endorsement expense, even if he is able to return to the court and play at a high level.

5. Kobe Bryant. 2013, $50 million; 2012 $50 million

Bryant is clearly not offsetting his endorsement contract with just US sales. However, he is very popular in China, which is the world’s 2nd largest sneaker market. Bryant may be the most popular current player in China

Chuck Taylor

For a little levity, I always like to add Chuck Taylor to this roster. He did play basketball after all and had the original “marquee” shoe. Sales of Chuck Taylor All Stars were about $750 million at retail in the US last year.

Other Players

Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony sold about $30 million each last year. Anthony sales grew sharply with his move to NYC. All other players’ signature shoes each sold less than $25 million.

Chinese Brands

Tahe Chinese sneaker brands have been signing a number of NBA players recently. Of note: Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. None of these brands have made a major attempt to sell their signature shoes in the US. These signings are really about being able to tell the Chinese consumer that there are NBA players wearing their shoes.