WTO / TRADE FIGURES 2018

12-Apr-2018
00:02:13

World merchandise trade growth is expected to remain strong in 2018 and 2019 after posting its largest increase in six years in 2017, but continued expansion depends on robust global economic growth and governments pursuing appropriate monetary, fiscal and especially trade policies, World Trade Organization (WTO) economists said today. WTO

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1. Pan right, WTO headquarters exteriors
2. Zoom in, press conference
3. Med shot, journalists
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"In 2017, trade growth was very strong. The volume of world merchandise trade grew by 4.7 percent."
5. Close up, journalist
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Economic growth is synchronized across regions, and that is very important. When all of these cylinders are aligned and firing together, the engine performs much better."
7. Med shot, journalists
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"It is not possible to accurately map out the effects of a major escalation, but clearly they could be serious."
9. Med shot, journalists
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"There are still a number of measures that have been announced but not implemented. There are conversations and dialogues ongoing between these players that you just mentioned. That's technically. Politically I think we might be seeing the beginning of that."
11. Wide shot, press conference
12. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"It is an interconnected economy, and in this kind of economy the effects would be globalized, reaching far beyond those countries who are directly involved. Poorer countries would stand to lose the most."
13. Various shots, journalists
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"If we do see the rise in tensions and these threats being announced here and there, the probability is that the volatility of markets is going to accentuate. The unpredictability of investments, for example, is going to have a dampening effect on economic growth and on job creation. And that's what concerns us. And we hope that we tone that down as much as we can."
15. Close up, journalists
16. Wide shot, press conference under way

STORYLINE

World merchandise trade growth is expected to remain strong in 2018 and 2019 after posting its largest increase in six years in 2017, but continued expansion depends on robust global economic growth and governments pursuing appropriate monetary, fiscal and especially trade policies, World Trade Organization (WTO) economists said today (12 Apr).

The Director-General of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, said "in 2017, trade growth was very strong. The volume of world merchandise trade grew by 4.7 percent."

Azevêdo noted that “economic growth is synchronized across regions,” adding that “when all of these cylinders are aligned and firing together, the engine performs much better."

However, there are signs that escalating trade tensions may already be affecting business confidence and investment decisions, which could compromise the current outlook.

Azevêdo said “it is not possible to accurately map out the effects of a major escalation, but clearly they could be serious."

The Director-General said that in an interconnected economy “the effects would be globalized, reaching far beyond those countries who are directly involved. Poorer countries would stand to lose the most."

He said, “if we do see the rise in tensions and these threats being announced here and there, the probability is that the volatility of markets is going to accentuate. The unpredictability of investments, for example, is going to have a dampening effect on economic growth and on job creation. And that's what concerns us. And we hope that we tone that down as much as we can."

The WTO anticipates merchandise trade volume growth of 4.4 percent in 2018, as measured by the average of exports and imports, roughly matching the 4.7 percent increase recorded for 2017. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2019, below the average rate of 4.8 percent since 1990 but still firmly above the post-crisis average of 3.0 percent.