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Saturday, January 4, 2014

Gold Weekly January 06-10, 2014

Trend is still bearish here. Initially we’ve thought that this could
become butterfly “buy” pattern, but it also could be “222” Buy, since if
we’ve suggested that AB=CD has been completed and W&R really has
happened, this could be double bottom. Also take a look, we have solid
bullish divergence with MACD. By treating valleys as AB=CD pattern we’ll
see that minor extension stands almost right at Yearly Pivot Point, and
1.618 extension stands slightly higher than Yearly PR1. This is really
interesting agreement. Weekly chart points that we should search
possibility for long entry. Odds suggest that after AB=CD completion
market usually shows at minimum 3/8 retracement, and on the weekly chart
this will be not small move. This, of cause, makes sense only if
W&R of 1180 lows really has happened. If we will be wrong with this
suggestion then we will get the trap that we’ve discussed previously.

Daily

Let’s suggest that market still has touched daily
targets. Now market stands above WPP and WPR1, trend holds bullish
here. In this case we need to search possibility enter long. Next
destination point is 1250 Fib resistance accompanied by MPR1 and daily
overbought. In general, we could get reversed H&S pattern here that
should lead market at minimum to 1280-1293 K-resistance area, but this
is a bit extended view. So, if we will be lucky we will get chance to
take long position prior 1250, if not – then we will need to wait bounce
off the 1250 resistance to take position.

4-hour

On 4-hour chart we probably have smaller Double Bottom pattern, since
W&R stands also for recent intraday lows as well. Target of this
pattern is the same – 1250 level. Trend is bullish here.

1-hour

Hourly chart shows that retracement down still could possible prior
reaching of 1250 area. Thus, here we have wedge pattern accompanied by
divergence and Tweezer tops pattern. This pattern is not as strong as,
say, engulfing pattern, but still, it has reversal quality. Depending on
how this retracement will develop, I hope we will understand whether
this was real reversal up or not yet. At first glance 1218 level looks
acceptable, since this is combination of Fib support and neck line of
4-hour Double Bottom pattern.

Conclusion

Currently we still have suspicions concerning reality of reversal,
although we have to appoint that upward action looks really nice. We
still will try to rely on COMEX Data and treat this move as reversal. In
long term perspective market could hit as Yearly PP as PR1 that stands
in agreement with gold’s habit and weekly AB=CD pattern. After
retracement will be completed we can’t exclude another leg down, since
in 2013 we’ve got volatility breakout. And, as a rule, VOB leads to 2-leg action.

In short-term perspective upward action has 1250 target. If market will
show retracement down before it will hit 1250, we will try to take long
position. At first glance 1218 level looks suitable.

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