Milan – Barcelona

Very interesting game in terms of analysis and value betting awaits us in Milan tonight.

This is another must win game for Barcelona, but so far they failed to get those “must-wins” and now are 3 wins away from 8th place. And their injury-list is a like a newspaper. They traveled to Milan without Navarro, Doellman and Perperouglu. B.Oleson has traveled with a team like a game-time decision. Young forward Rodion Kurucs from B team has traveled with the team.

Milan won Cup competition and wants to continue that momentum in Euroleague. The white and red coach has some doubts for Kruno Simon , absent in the Final Eight, Mantas Kalnietis (foot) and Jamel McLean (wrist).

It’s hard to say who is going to win this battle. Both team are at the bottom of my power rating (look below), but one will bring us money today.

As for me Barcelona @ 2.30 represents some value, but it’s hard to bet on them, knowing that they are 2-9 in away games in Europe this season and 3-8 ATS. Milan also has important missings and their roster depth has less quality to compensate Kalnietis and McLean absences. Barcelona has long list of players capable of playing at this level. Navarro not so important as it was few seasons ago as well as Perperouglu. They signed American Xavier Munford, recovered Alex Renfroe and should have deep & solid roster to compete in Italy.

As for me, Barcelona is tiny favorite here. Market reacts to Barcelona losses and bad form, but this team is not that bad as many suggests. They just need to get confidence and consistency to relaunch their season.

Another position I like here is under 158.5, but there is not enough value to take it as pre-match bet. The key point here is a low pace of the game. In Barcelona these teams had just 134 attacks and I expect another posession-minded game in Milan. Hosts without 2-3 important players for their attack, Barcelona also weakened in offense. They will need to show huge percentage to score 158+ points from 141-144 posessions.