Friday, September 11, 2009

I have become enamored by the The Scouting Report. Created by Tom Tango and his associates at The Book (insidethebook.com), this community project gathers the fan's collection of players skills. This is ingenious innovation, gathering a season's worth of eye-witness accounts and compiling them into a useful number. Not enough good things can be said about the Wisdom of the Crowd approach. In his introduction to the project, Tango notes that "Baseball's fans are very perceptive. Take a large group of them, and they can pick out the final standings with the best of them. They can forecast the performance of players as well as those guys with rather sophisticated forecasting engines. Bill James, in one of his later Abstracts, had the fans vote in for the ranking of the best to worst players by position. And they did a darn good job."

Secondly, let's be honest. When you're watching the game and you witness a groundball bound underneath Brendan Harris's out-stretched glove and into centerfield you never say to yourself "That Harris and his Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average divided by 150 defensive games played! Gaa!" Rather, you question his first step or his overall quickness or his instincts. In full disclosure, I like defensive metrics because they are better than the festering alternative (fielding percentage) and it provides insight to whether or not that player is able to handle a position well but really, that's about it. John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, found updated at BillJamesOnline.net, takes it a step further and isolates whether a player is good at ranging to his left or right but it certainly doesn't identify that particular skill set. Nor does it tell you whether he's got a good first step, strong arm, accurate arm or quick release.

This is where Tango's project comes in to fill that void. Millions of people attend ballgames and another solid contingent of that owns season tickets or watches every telecast. Those people are formulating their opinions on each player and now have the opportunity to fill out a ballot that Tango then takes the average and compiles it into that year's Scouting Report. No eye-crossing equations or decimal points or the word "Ultimate" - just an overall number from 0-100 on how that player's skills measures up.

If you go to the Twins page from 2008, I'm sure you will find yourself in agreement with most of the numbers submitted. Denard Span's tenure in right field in 2008 was the team's best overall defender at 78. Joe Mauer is second with a 77 followed by Carlos Gomez at 65. Looking more closely at Gomez's ratings, you'll see that his speed is off the charts at 92 but his throwing accuracy is a pitiful 31 (remember all the missed cuts, errent throws up the line and bullets to generally no one in particular?).

This sort of free scouting reports is a wonderful, albeit under-utilitzed, tool for analysts such as myself. When the hub-bub of the Mark Grudzielanek signing first surfaced, my first visit was to the standard Fangraphs.com, HardballTimes.com and BillJamesOnline.net to see what his overall defensive talent at second base amounted to in the more recent seasons. In the past three seasons in Kansas City, Grudzie has had a consistent decline in his UZR value, unsurprising given his accelerated age.

M.G.

Overall Position-Neutal

Instincts

First Step

Speed

Hands

Release

Strength

Accuracy

UZR/150

2008

59

65

54

38

68

77

46

72

5.3

2007

64

71

53

39

81

83

52

80

10.9

2006

65

71

49

41

80

85

58

81

16.1

As you can deduce, fans who watched him day-in, day-out in Missouri noted that his arm strength had been diminishing (dropping from 58 to 52 to 46), along with his release (85 to 83 to 77) and accuracy (81 to 80 to 72). To be sure, this is still a very good report in 2008 in spite of decreasing skillset. As we compare with some of the defensive metrics, we find that Grudzielanek did convert fewer double plays after 2006, possibly (but not necessarily) a byproduct of his deteriorating arm. The Twins of course brought Grudzielanek along slowly in the minors and eventually reached the same conclusion as the Scouting Reports' trends suggested - he's no longer capable of holding down a job at second base.

Certainly with any attempts at cultivating the crowd for knowledge, there does exist the possibility of collective ignorance or indifference or both. Consider Orlando Cabrera, who at 34 years old, has been a target of accusations claiming he is no longer capable of playing a demanding position like short. In 2006 he turned in what could be considered one of his worst fielding seasons. His fielding percentage was at the second-lowest it had been since becoming a starter, his UZR was -1.4 and his range was reduced. The citizens of SoCal raked him over the coals in their ballots. The following year, the LA fans were infatuated with the OC and his third-best fielding percentage of his career, giving him much improved marks. He did demonstrate the ability to cover more ground which may be indicative of better first step or instincts - but how is it that his arm strength suddenly improved? Or that his release was that much better? Could those fans have been voting on Cabrera's fewer errors instead of his actual talents? This past year, Chicago fans were given what was Cabrera's best UZR/150 year (13.1) since 2005 and they lambasted his skils. What fans at the Cell saw was an aging product -- nevermind the statistical numbers.

O.C.

Overall Position-Neutal

Instincts

First Step

Speed

Hands

Release

Strength

Accuracy

UZR/150

2008

66

69

64

63

67

78

49

77

13.1

2007

78

78

72

64

83

89

67

87

8.9

2006

67

66

70

61

69

73

61

68

-1.6

You -- we, us -- have the opportunity to leave an impact on the defensive landscape of the Minnesota Twins. Those of you that have watched or gone to almost every game have concocted some opinion on Delmon Young's first-step, Michael Cuddyer's arm strength or Nick Punto's range. I recommend and encourage that everyone who has watched a substantial portion of the games, visit the instruction page and please submit a ballot for the Twins online.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."