Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on June 20th. On the 21st, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Hambantota districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts up to 10 mm. On the 22nd, Gampaha and Galle districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 23rd, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo and Kaluatara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Ratnapura and Galle districts received up to 20 mm. On the 24th, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 25th, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and several regions of Kurunegala and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall.

Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 50-75 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts and southern regions of Ratnapura district.

Monthly Monitoring: During May - above average rainfall conditions were experienced by the entire island. Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 360 mm above average rainfall; Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Kandy, Badulla and Ampara districts up to 300 mm; and rest of the country up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~750 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 500 mm PuttalamGampaha, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to ~300 mm Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; and up to 200 mm in rest of the country.

Predictions14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP Models:

From 27th Jun- 3rd Jul: Total rainfall between 65-75 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Colombo districts; between 45-55 mm in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 35-45 mm in Gampaha district; between 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Galle and Matara districts.

From 04th – 10th Jul: Total rainfall between 65-75 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 35-45 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy districts; between 25-35 mm in Puttalam and Matale districts; between 15-25 mm in Galle, Matara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast:

29th Jun: Up to 20 mm of rainfall in Monaragala, Ampara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; Up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.

30th Jun: Up to 40 mm of rainfall in Galle, Matara and Monaragala districts; Up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota and Ampara districts.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 27th Jun- 2nd Jul: Total rainfall between 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; Up to 25 mm total rainfall rest of the island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)PACIFIC SEAS STATE : June 19, 2018

In mid-June 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, as did all key atmospheric variables. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average, and this strengthened further during May. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 50% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 65% during winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development during late summer, growing to possibly moderate strength during fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario as the spring barrier is now mostly passed.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an impact on the rainfall in the following 5 days.