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UN chief science body in Hobart for global warming forum

TONY EASTLEY: After a week of bushfires, heatwaves and record temperatures, some people are wondering if the extreme weather is a sign of what we should expect in the future.

More than 250 scientists from the UN's chief science body are in Hobart this week to discuss the science of global warming before the release of their fifth paper later this year.

They're warning more frequent extreme weather and hotter days are likely, as the planet warms.

This week the ABC will look at how that will translate in Australia. Today we focus on the coast.

As temperatures soar, the ice melt is causing sea levels to rise and that's a concern for homes and businesses on the beachfront.

Here's environment reporter Sarah Clarke.

SARAH CLARKE: The beach is synonymous with holidays in Australia. Not only do we flock to the coast for a break, but more than three quarters of Australians permanently live near the ocean.

ALAN STOKES: We like to live as close as we can to it, we like to spend our holidays there and we like to you know spend Christmas holidays there as we are at the moment.

SARAH CLARKE: Alan Stokes is from the National Sea Change Taskforce. He also lives near the water in one of the harbour-side suburbs in Sydney. But he has concerns about the future of this kind of coastal living.

ALAN STOKES: If the climate science is correct, and that is that we can expect a sea level rise of somewhere between 80 centimetres and 1.1 metres by the year 2100, that lifestyle is under threat.

Also under threat are the properties that are going to be developed in vulnerable areas along the coast which are being approved at the moment in states all around Australia.

SARAH CLARKE: Rising sea levels are a result of melting glaciers and according to some of the most recent peer-reviewed reports, the melt is accelerating.

John Church is from the CSIRO and a lead author on sea level rise for the UN's chief science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

JOHN CHURCH: The Greenland ice sheet in particular, yes is increasing its surface melt. It has increased throughout the satellite record. Last - this year there was a period when virtually all of the Greenland ice sheet was melting for a few days.

If we are to avoid some of the extreme scenarios, if we are to avoid the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, then itís urgent that we do start mitigating, reducing our emissions significantly and on a sustained way into the future.

SARAH CLARKE: The Climate Commission has done modelling on a sea level rise above one metre around Australia's coastline by the turn of the century and it warns up to 250,000 homes could potentially be exposed to inundation.

In Sydney, it forecasts runways at the main domestic airport could be inundated and terminals flooded. In Brisbane, homes in inner city suburbs like Windsor and Albion may go underwater. It's the same for other cities like Melbourne where areas of St Kilda and Elwood are submerged.

Alan Stokes from the National Sea Change Taskforce says while some residents aren't fussed by the new potential water-front living, others are trying to sell.

ALAN STOKES: Well, I've heard cases of people wanting to sell up and even trying to sell up, but finding that you know the market suddenly isn't working with them, that the values of their property have dropped.

SARAH CLARKE: The Gold Coast is a key example of a major city centre that typifies ocean-front living. It's got plans in place to guard against a 27 centimetre sea level rise, but councillor Lex Bell says the Gold Coast City Council's yet to go any higher.

LEX BELL: Oh, we're sitting back and monitoring the situation, taking it seriously but not panicking.

SARAH CLARKE: So should communities retreat or defend the coastline?

As it stands there's no national benchmark on minimum sea level rise that's binding on the states and with around $300 billion worth of commercial building, infrastructure and homes at stake, climate scientists are urging all governments to take note.

TONY EASTLEY: Environment reporter, Sarah Clarke. And tomorrow we'll take a look at the future of Australian agriculture in a warming climate.

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