So I have made it to 17-0 and won the WIS Survivor contest. Now the more difficult picks begin. Same rules as before, once you pick a team you cannot choose them again. So I am turning to you guys for some input:

6. Cincy @ 3. Houston

6. Minn @ 3. GB

5. Indy @ 4. Balt

5. Sea @ 4. Wash

I am tempted to pick GB, but I think they can beat SF and Atl and get back to the Super Bowl. I would like to pick them later on. I do like Houston at home this week, even though they have lost their last 2, I still think they can take care of Cincy and then lose to Patriots.
My plan (for now)-
Houston this week
Atlanta next week over Sea/Wash winner
SF/GB over Atl in NFC Champ. game
NE/Denver will be in SB and I will pick them to win it

Who like this plan or who has a better one? Convince me of a better one OR re-affirm these picks and if I win it all, I will buy you a $25 gift cert @ WIS. Give me some comprehensive analysis.....mine is a first instict, go with my gut feeling.

I think Indy wins this week. Baltimore has been struggling mightily over the last month or longer and Indy is 9-2 since their embarrassing defeat at the Jets in week 6.

I wouldn't pick Houston for anything. They have been exposed and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cincy beats them. The Bengals are 7-1 for the 2nd half of the season and their only loss was by 1 to Dallas after Cincy led by 9 going into the 4th quarter. This was also the game following the Jerry Brown/Josh Brent accident and Dallas really were emotionally charged to win it for Jerry. It took one of those Romo comeback efforts, and the Bengals mismanaged the clock the entire 2nd half. A lot of things fell into place or the Bengals 2nd half would have been 8-0.

Baltimore. They'll beat Indy at home and gets smoked next week against DEN/NE. Indy has been on an emotional high for far too long. They're due for a letdown. And they beat some horrible teams by a TD or less.

And, just to be clear, I don't think Baltimore is the most likely to win this week. But they're the most likely to get destroyed next week so, in this survivor game, you want someone you wouldn't care to use next week.

3-5 on the road with wins over a horrible early season Panthers, a quickly falling Bears and a bad all year Bills. Plus WC team playing on the EC. While I think they're the superior team, I don't want anything to do with that game.

2-0 on the road with 4:00 PM Eastern start times....I like the matchup. The Skins pass rush is meh, and Lynch should be in beast mode most of the day. RGIII thrived in blitz situations all season....top rated passer against the blitz this season....the Hawks don't blitz. Browner is back....they are peaking at the right time. No way the Redskins win this game.

I tend to work backwards.
I like NE/SF in the SB. So I want BOTH of them available.
DEN/NE is the AFC champ game. I want both of them available.
SF against I don't know in the NFC Champ game. I save them. But the NFC looks messy right now. I avoid it this week because I want GB available next week. I don't trust ATL at all.

I don't like Balt to beat NE or DEN but I'd consider HOU to beat one of them.

Posted by stinenavy on 12/31/2012 5:01:00 PM (view original):I'd take GB. Ponder winning a road playoff game in GB? Not going to happen.

Peterson winning a road playoff game in GB? Could very well happen. And cold-weather games tend to favour teams with strong run games. I think GB will win, but I wouldn't be comfortable taking them in a Survivor pool.

Posted by MikeT23 on 12/31/2012 6:23:00 PM (view original):I tend to work backwards.
I like NE/SF in the SB. So I want BOTH of them available.
DEN/NE is the AFC champ game. I want both of them available.
SF against I don't know in the NFC Champ game. I save them. But the NFC looks messy right now. I avoid it this week because I want GB available next week. I don't trust ATL at all.

I don't like Balt to beat NE or DEN but I'd consider HOU to beat one of them.

So, to me, Balt is the obvious choice this week.

Not bad logic, but at the same time, isn't this similar to an ML manager saving his best bench hitter for extra innings when the game may not even go to extra innings? Next week's picks mean nothing if you don't get this week's right.