Despite the Iran/Iraq war and the prospect of greater disruption of Persian Gulf oil deliveries, the international crude market has adjusted to the loss of supplies and remains stable, partly because some nonwarring members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have boosted production to make up losses and partly because the industrialized nations have maintained high levels of crude and product stocks. These stocks would be draw-depleted in nine months if used at the rate of 1.8 million bbl/day; this and a 2 million bbl/day increase in OPEC production would make up for the entire war-caused shortfall. If themore » Strait of Hormuz were closed, the shortfall would be 17 million bbl/day, which would deplete stocks in less than one month. Patterns of supply and demand in non-Communist western countries in 1978-79 and 1979-80; the International Energy Agency oil-sharing plan which would go into effect in the case of a major oil shortage; and the prospects for a surge in prices in the international oil markets, are discussed.« less

The discovery after the Gulf War of the extensive Iraqi nuclear weapon program severely shook public confidence in the nuclear non-proliferation regime in general, and the safeguards program of the IAEA under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, in particular. Iraq provided the justification for evaluating the safeguards regime under new political circumstances, so that appropriate corrective measures could be taken when necessary. It is now up to the individual states within the international system to take advantage of this opportunity.