Story Highlights

The Indianapolis Colts have won two games in a row behind an improving offensive line. The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four in a row and look nothing like the team that make last year's AFC Championship game.

So this is lock for the Colts, right? Well ...

Quarterback Blake Bortles has already been benched once this season, but he has been effective against the Colts.

Running back Leonard Fournette is back from a hamstring injury.

Jacksonville's defense, even with recent slip-ups, is stronger than the two the Colts previously faced.

How far the Jaguars have fallen since falling a game short of the Super Bowl last January, and since rolling the Patriots to jump to 2-0 this year. They recently were bumped out of their Sunday night date next week, and who can blame the NFL for flexing out of this nosedive? The Colts have discovered an offensive line and a running game, which helps Andrew Luck enormously.

This is essentially a playoff game for these two. Loser has six losses and is likely out of the playoffs. Both teams are coming off a bye, so they are rested. I think this will be a game where the Jacksonville defense plays like many expected before the season. They get the best of Andrew Luck and Leonard Fournette runs to control the clock.

Both teams absolutely must win this game. The Texans are beginning to pull away with the AFC South -- but they're on a bye week. Which presents a sterling opportunity for the Jags and Colts to gain traction. How effective will Leonard Fournette be for Jacksonville following a two-month layoff due to a bum hamstring? Playing on the road presents another hurdle, considering the Jaguars haven't won outside of Florida since Week 1. (And that was against the Giants, so does it even count?) The Colts played very well offensively the last two weeks, employing the run early and often versus the Bills (whose run defense has been mostly formidable), then hitting plenty of big pass plays to receivers you never heard of against the Raiders. Buffalo ... Oakland ... the 31st and 32nd teams in my Power Rankings. Thinking this Jaguars defense will let Andrew Luck know early on that it is a different animal.

Both the Jaguars and Colts are 3-5 but these teams are going in different directions. Indy has won two straight while Jacksonville is on a four-game losing streak. Not only that, Andrew Luck looks to be fully healthy after missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury. He's completing a career-best 65.8 percent of his throws, a passer rating of 96.2 (which is second to the 96.4 rating he had in 2016), 23 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and is on pace to be sacked just 20 times, which would be a career low over 16 games. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles has already been benched for Cody Kessler, then reassumed the job in Jacksonville's Week 8 loss to Philadelphia (in London). Bortles isn't the long-term answer but the question is whether he can get out of his own way and help the Jags back to the playoffs. Incidentally, the Colts' schedule over the final two months sets up favorably for a run to the postseason though we feel like this is the week Jacksonville gets back to winning football.

With Leonard Fournette likely returning, the Jaguars are hoping to become the dominant team they thought they would be this season. But it’s hard to imagine Fournette being forced into a big workload right away, and the Jags' concerns against the Colts go way beyond the running back. Blake Bortles has not played well on the road, and their good pass defense can be neutralized by Andrew Luck getting the ball out quickly.