“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success”
– Adolf Hitler

The few points about the Arctic that Tony Heller repeats over and over look like this today:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of broken ice north of the East Siberian Sea on June 22nd 2015, derived from bands 1, 4 and 3 of the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satelliteNSIDC Greenland melt area graph on June 21st 2015

I’m well aware of the difference between “melting” and “surface mass balance”. I’m also well aware that the DMI’s visualisation of “melting” generally doesn’t look the same as the NSIDC’s. That’s why I recommend looking at all the available data instead of just lurid headlines and freshly picked cherries.

sorry about that jim, i should have known better . i see friv is praying for the long range forecast to be accurate so there is big melt. strange position for someone to adopt.

what do you think of the effect of the amo entering the cool phase in relation to future melt seasons ? for me ,hopefully it has a positive effect on the ice as the atlantic obviously as a far larger effect than the pacific.

i note a few climatereanalyzer charts being posted on the asif . i do not know how you feel about their accuracy,but i would ask you to look at the area you live to judge how well they do.

some ice posts by chris reynolds in the asif on the effects of the gac 2012 upon the ice . i tend to agree with his assessment .

still a bit of a wishy washy melt season so far ,i think it will be at least the end of july before we see where it is heading,the big drops are still to come and with the large areas of cool anomalies is the north atlantic there is every chance we could see a few big storms from that side. these would have a far greater effect than anything from the pacific side,initially increasing compaction, but conditioning the ice for greater melt.

looking at the last twenty years it would be rare to see three years of increased minimum extent in a row,so as much as i would like to see the last two years rebound turn into at least a mini recovery, i have my doubts as to it actually happening,we shall soon see.

This from the polar portal is well worth a read Jim. I note there were not widescale retractions at the time by the media once this had been noted .

Addendum January 2015.

A surprise in Greenland ice behavior, summer 2013

In 2013, the change in the land ice mass in Greenland derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) showed a very different behavior to that which had been observed since the launch of the satellites in 2002. This was originally interpreted as related to a possible degradation of the GRACE data, and it was not clear until late 2014 that this anomaly should likely be interpreted as something real. The data shows that between June 2013 and June 2014, Greenland had very little ice loss. Compared to an average annual loss of more than 250 Gigatonnes in the previous ten years, this is quite unusual. It is possibly a consequence of the extreme 2012 melt, the largest on record. The GRACE satellites provide monthly measurements of the mass change of Greenland’s ice sheet and surrounding glaciers and in turn Greenland global sea level contribution. Because gaps in GRACE data have increased in recent years and because GRACE data typically have a 2 month processing delay, Polar Portal scientists have used an apparently strong statistical relationship between ice surface reflectivity (available near realtime from the MODIS sensor on the NASA Terra satellite) and ice mass changes from GRACE to:

The technique used to make near real-time estimates based on the reflectivity broke down in 2013, and yielded an inaccurately large ice loss result as reported in the Season Report. Polar Portal scientists are now busy assessing the physical processes underlying Greenland’s surprisingly neutral mass balance summer 2013. In the meantime, we have suspended further reflectivity-based Greenland mass change estimates.

By way of example I was publicly critical of the “North Pole is melting” nonsense in 2013 that was in fact a melt pond nowhere near the North Pole that just happened to have a webcam in it. And a bird’s backside!