Few trades happen this early in the season. Too many teams still cling to hope that they'll make a run at the playoffs for the trade market to develop in earnest before mid-June, let alone the end of May. But as contenders begin to separate themselves, it's already becoming clear which teams will be buying before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline -- and which will be selling.

As probably was predictable, a Philadelphia team that once was a National League juggernaut has fallen off a cliff as its roster of All-Stars has aged without adequate reinforcements from the minor leagues to fill in the gaps. Roy Halladay had an 8.65 ERA when he went on the disabled list and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder. Chase Utley is on the disabled list with a strained oblique. Ryan Howard has a sub-.300 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage barely higher than that of Nate McLouth -- 87th-best in the major leagues.

For all of those reasons and more, Philadelphia went into play Thursday two games under .500 -- 6 1/2 games out of first place in the National League East and seven games behind Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the wild-card race. If the Atlanta Braves play just .500 baseball over the rest of the season, the Phillies would have to play at better than a 91-win pace just to catch up -- and they've shown little indication they're capable of doing that.

There's no guarantee Philadelphia is going to be a seller at the trade deadline. This is a team that was built to contend this season, so much so that Ruben Amaro Jr. completely dismissed the idea of trading a core player last winter. It's not easy to decide to blow up a team with a $150-million payroll, especially this early. Even last year's disastrous Red Sox team didn't cash in its chips until late August.

But if Philadelphia does want to turn a veteran into a handful of young players who can be part of the next great Phillies team -- to borrow a phrase from Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington -- its best trade chip might be Lee. And if Lee is made available, Cherington figures to be one of the first general managers on the phone to Amaro.

In compiling one of the best records in the American League two months into the season, the Red Sox haven't revealed themselves to have many holes. The inconsistency of Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront at the back end of the rotation represents one of the few obvious areas in which the Red Sox could upgrade -- and Lee, who has a 2.34 ERA in a National League-best 80 2/3 innings pitched this season, would be an enormous upgrade.

The contract Lee signed with the Phillies after the 2010 season means he wouldn't be a typical midseason trade acquisition. He's not a three-month rental. He's under contract for $25 million in 2013 and $25 million more in 2014 and 2015, and it'll cost either $27.5 million to pick up his 2016 option or $12.5 million to decline it. That's an exorbitant sum of money.

If any team could pick up that type of money, though, it's this newly flexible Red Sox team. Stephen Drew will come off the payroll next season. Jacoby Ellsbury will come off the payroll next season. Joel Hanrahan will come off the payroll, too. Dempster, John Lackey or even Jon Lester could be a candidate to be traded this winter if space needs to be cleared.

And in contrast to the last year or two, the Boston farm system has produced enough talent to entice the Phillies to part with a pitcher like Lee. Top shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts almost certainly would be off the table, but the Red Sox now have enough minor-league pitching depth not to dismiss out of hand the idea of including Matt Barnes or Henry Owens in a deal that would obtain them three years of Lee.

Will such a deal happen? Probably not. To jettison Lee, the Phillies first would have to decide to go into what would amount to a long-term rebuild, a rebuild made more complicated by the onerous Howard contract. That's no better than a 50-50 proposition in itself. They then would have to come to an agreement with the Red Sox on a package of prospects that they like better than any package offered by any other team. That's no lock to happen, either.

But if the Red Sox see themselves as a World Series contender and want to make a dramatic midseason upgrade, there probably won't be one more dramatic than Lee.

Twitter: @brianmacp

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