3 Motivation Developments in AV technology will sooner or later lead to new taxi-like services Service provision is expected to be very cheap US$ / mile? Car usership may decline if AV services are as reliable as car trips In less than 20 years, owning a car will be like owning a horse (Elon Musk) A significantly lower fleet size may be required to serve travel demand page 3

4 Motivation How many vehicles does it take to cope for the demand handled by cars in Berlin? How well will such an AT service perform? How do additional empty rides affect service? page 4

5 Methodology: Model MATSim is used as the simulation software Simulation of agents along their daily routines during multiple iterations using multiple travel modes Allows fast simulation of millions of agents The current MATSim Berlin model: 6 million agents 16 million trips Car 35% Public transport 35% Other (walk, bike) 30% AT demand: ~ 2,5 million daily car trips within the city boundaries Served by roughly million cars page 5

8 Simulation of dynamic transport services in MATSim Objectives minimize fleet size minimize wait time minimize empty-to-total drive time ratio Constraints immediate requests destinations unknown in advance online vehicle monitoring, but no diversion vehicles move according to the current travel times pickups and drop-offs take time Initial vehicle distribution: According to population density page 8

11 Results Initially, between and ATs were used to serve the demand vehicles provide a sufficiently good service Average waiting times of around 5 minutes during peaks, less than 3 minutes in average Overall daily driving distance per vehicle: 274 km 239 km with passenger 35 km empty (13 %) Average trip length: 9,4 km page 11

12 Results: vehicles All vehicles are busy during peak times Some trips are initially postponed page 12

13 Waiting time (min) Results: vehicles 16 Passenger Wait Time [min] % of all passengers wait for more than 6 15 minutes Average waiting time is highest in the morning Time of day (h) mean 5 %ile 50 %ile 95 %ile page 13

14 Results: vehicles page 14

15 Results: vehicles page 16

16 The effect on traffic 13 % of all mileage is empty and did not exist beforehand Effects on congestion are hard to measure: Increased flow of AVs could compensate for this Further research on congestion effects Extra mileage is not evenly spread over the city In the city centre, pick up trips are generally short (or even non existent) Demand from outskirts attracts longer pickup trips page 17

17 The effect on traffic page 18

18 The effect on traffic page 19

19 Generalisation Based on today s travel behaviour and the given constraints, 100,000 ATs could replace inner city car traffic in Berlin Waiting times seem acceptable, so does fleet occupancy In terms of profit: City centre more promising, pick up trips are significantly shorter Fleet is mainly occupied during peak hours ATs are occupied for roughly 7.5 hours a day, so a majority of the fleet could run different services during off-peak times page 20

20 Further steps The influence of other modes Not only car users are expected to use AT services The attractiveness of public transport could decline A combination of AT and PT services Requires a behavioral model for mode choice of a currently non-existing mode Better flow performance of AVs Can be assessed in MATSim Shared rides Assumes a willingness-to-share page 21

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