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Who had the 49ers selecting Illinois WR A.J. Jenkins in the first round last year. Hello? Anyone? (AP)

On a national conference call this week, ESPN’s Mel Kiper said he thought the 49ers could take Florida International safety Jonathan Cyprien, UCLA defensive end Datone Jones, Florida safety Matt Elam, SMU defensive end Margus Hunt or Stanford tight end Zach Ertz with their first-round pick.

This is not a knock on Kiper, but a nod to the 49ers’ ability to make a mockery of mock drafts the past two years.

Using the first two drafts under the Trent Baalke-Jim Harbaugh Administration as a guide, the key to correctly pegging San Francisco’s 2013 first-round pick is simple:

1. Figure out who they won’t pick.

2. Pick that player to be the 49ers’ first-round selection.

Using this formula, you could have predicted the 2011 selection of Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith, who curiously left school after an injury marred sophomore season that included 5.5 sacks.

Last year, you could have crystal-balled the selection of Illinois wide receiver A.J. Jenkins, who nearly transferred after a 10-catch sophomore season and didn’t fully blossom until his senior year. Baalke supposedly put Jenkins’ name in an envelope before the draft, but only one person – a confused 10-year-old in Bangladesh, I believe — put Jenkins in the first round of their mock draft.

As you can see, it’s not hard to identify what position group the 49ers will address in the first round.

In 2011, a pass-rusher was an obvious need, but most figured North Carolina’s Robert Quinn – not Smith – would be the pick.

In 2012, wide receiver was a glaring hole, but most figured Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill – not Jenkins – would become a 49er.

In 2013, it’s clear the 49ers need a safety after two-time Pro Bowler Dashon Goldson signed with the Buccaneers last month

So will it be Cyprien? Elam? LSU’s Eric Reid?

Please. Have you not been paying attention?

The clear choice is South Carolina’s D.J. Swearinger, who didn’t earn all-SEC honors until his senior season, is not projected as a first-round pick and who, at 5-11, is a curious pairing with similarly height-challenged safety Donte Whitner.

In other words, I believe – with all my heart – that Swearinger will not be the 49ers’ first-round pick.