Improving the decision making process with probabilistic software

AGR Well Management engineering team were assigned to evaluate the best option between different Mobile Drilling Unit (MODU) types.

The drilling campaign in focus was to take place in a water-depth that was within the capabilities of both a Jack-up and a Semi-submersible. The choice of which MODU was best suited given the weather conditions and the variance in costs was complex. In addition, our client needed a simple presentation of the best solution.

P1™ - the probabilistic time and cost planning software

Our team's approach was to implement AGR in-house developed probabilistic software, P1™ in order to evaluate project costs and associated risks. There was a long lead-time before the start of the campaign resulting in a very variable rig rate. Depending on the time of the year when the project would take place, differing weather conditions would influence the operation challenging the capabilities of each different type of MODU.

P1™ enabled the team to review two options delivering the client a clear basis for the decision. The report compiled contained a logical breakdown of operational steps with a systematic review of time and cost for the campaign using the different types of MODU. The team also generated an objective review of the risks and range of possible outcomes.

As a result, the presentation to our client and their partners and management was refined to two slides showing the time and cost.

A very complex decision that could have resulted in much debate was distilled into an easily understandable choice.

Would you like to have a free demo of P1™ software? Please get in touch with our team.