Independent Spending Wars Fought to a Standstill in 2012

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The congressional independent spending wars of 2012 may well have been a financial bonanza for local media outlets. There can be little question that more money for politics meant more income for those who produce, place and sell the time for media advertising. But when all the dust finally settles, it is not clear what the result meant for election outcomes.

There were 15 Senate races in 2012 with $5 million or more in independent spending. At the very top was Virginia, with more than $51 million, Wisconsin with $40 million and Ohio with $35 million. These 15 races had $305 million in independent spending, more than 40% of which was in the top three races alone. By comparison, in 2010 there were only a slightly smaller number of elections with $5 million or more in independent spending—10 in all – but the total amount spent in those races was “only” $158 million.

Yet, despite a near doubling of the money, the results show a near draw. In the 15 Senate races, 7 were won by the candidates favored by more independent spending and 8 by the candidates favored by less spending.

“This was an arms war fought to a standstill,” said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute. Of course, this does not mean that either side could have afforded to sit the fight out. “Unilateral disarmament is not an effective strategy when the other side shoots,” Malbin said.

The story was similar in the House. In 2012, there were 46 races attracting $2 million or more in independent spending, for a total of $248 million. The number of races was actually down from the 2010 election when $174 million was spent on 52 races with $2 million or more of independent spending.

As of this writing, winners had not yet been declared in 6 of these 46 House races. Of the 40 races with a declared winner, only 17 were won by the candidate favored by more independent spending compared to 23 in which the winner was favored by less independent spending.

The detailed tables attached show candidate receipts, independent spending by the political parties and independent spending by non-party entities for all Senate races, and for all House races in which the combined independent spending totaled $1 million or more.

The Campaign Finance Institute is a non-partisan, non-profit research institute. Statements of the Campaign Finance Institute and its Task Forces do not necessarily reflect the views of CFI's Trustees or financial supporters.