Economist: The Boom Goes On

Florida's economy will continue to flourish through 1985 and most of 1986 before slowing in 1987, one of the state's leading economists predicted Friday.

Hank Fishkind, president of M.G. Lewis Econometrics in Winter Park, said the state's economy will be hurt by a national recession that he predicted will begin in the fourth quarter of 1986 and will last through 1987. He said he foresees the U.S. economy rebounding in 1988, however.

''From extraordinary to ordinary will be the story of the economic growth in Florida'' during a 1987 recession, said Fishkind, who is editor of the company's Econocast and former director of economic forecasting at the University of Florida.

The economy in Central Florida will continue to grow during the expected recession but not at the pace of recent years, he said. ''We'll outperform the rest of the state in 1987. The best performances will be in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, West Palm Beach and then in the Orlando area.''

The quarterly edition of Econocast issued this week concludes that Florida's economy in 1985 may make an even better showing than it did last year.

Because of sizable increases in population, employment, residential construction and tourism, ''taken together, 1984 and 1985 shape up as the best years for the Florida economy since 1972-1973,'' the report says.

The darkest cloud on the state economy's horizon is an overbuilding of office space, especially in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area and in Orlando, the study warned.

Record growth in Orange County's population is projected for this year, though the report notes that the pace of residential construction has begun to slow.

Econocast projects that the national economy will bounce back during the second half of 1985. The real gross national product, which has grown 2.0 percent in the past year, will expand by 6.0 percent in the first quarter of 1986 and 3.3 percent in the second quarter, it projects.

But Fishkind's report also predicts that the federal budget deficit will reach $200 billion in the current fiscal year and that the dollar will continue a steady decline against foreign currencies. As a result, the report predicts, interest rates will climb next year as the Federal Reserve Board acts to halt an inflationary spiral that ''is unlikely to remain below 5 percent.''

Econocast said a recession probably will be triggered in the fourth quarter of 1986 by an increase in the prime interest rate to 12.1 percent and a rise in mortgage interest rates to above 13 percent.