U.S. Consumer Spending Rise Is Slim

REUTERS

Friday

Dec 23, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Americans spent less than expected in November as tepid income growth put a squeeze on households, the Commerce Department said.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Consumer spending in the United States was tepid in November and a gauge of business investment plans fell for a second consecutive month, pointing to some loss of momentum in the economy.

But other data on Friday added to signs that a tentative recovery in the housing market was under way, which should help to support growth.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending ticked up 0.1 percent after rising by the same margin in October. Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity, to rise 0.3 percent last month.

When adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.2 percent last month after a similar gain in October.

In another report, the department said nonmilitary capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, fell 1.2 percent last month after declining 0.9 percent in October.

Shipments of these so-called core capital goods, which go into calculations of gross domestic product, also fell.

The reports tempered expectations for fourth-quarter economic growth, although many analysts still expect it to top a 3 percent annual rate after a 1.8 percent third-quarter pace.

“It appears we have a little more consumer spending but less investment spending than we thought,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. “However, we expect those two developments to cancel each other out. At this point we still look for real G.D.P. growth in the fourth quarter of around 3 percent.”

The tepid consumer spending data stood in stark contrast with the robust sales reported for Black Friday, the traditional start to the holiday shopping season. Some retailers have been forced to offer heavy discounts to get shoppers to spend.

“Retail has been very promotional and consumers have been very value-conscious,” Best Buy’s chief executive, Brian Dunn, said in a conference call last week.

Income ticked up 0.1 percent, the weakest reading since August, as wages and salaries fell. Disposable income was flat.

A strengthening in the labor market has offered some hope income growth will quicken, but analysts said the report augured poorly for consumer spending at the start of the new year.

“The lack of real income growth really raises questions as to what is going to happen to the economy in the first quarter,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C.

While households may be spending less, they are starting to show more interest in buying houses, the Commerce Department said Friday in a separate report. Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.6 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted 315,000-unit annual rate.

That was the highest in seven months. In addition, the months’ supply of houses on the market dropped to a five-and-a-half-year low, further signs of a budding recovery.

Data this week showed a rise in sales of previously owned homes and surge in housing starts, but further progress will depend on the health of household finances.

Already, consumers have been reducing their saving rate to prop up their spending. The saving rate dipped to 3.5 percent last month from 3.6 percent in October.

On the bright side, the report confirmed an easing in inflation, which should help to support spending.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a price index for personal spending, was flat last month after falling 0.1 percent in October. In the 12 months through November, the P.C.E. index was up 2.5 percent, the smallest rise since April. That followed a 2.7 percent increase in October.

A core inflation measure, which strips out food and energy costs, edged up 0.1 percent last month after a similar gain in October. In the 12 months through November, the core index rose 1.7 percent after increasing 1.7 percent in October.

But the economy continues to show resilience in the face of slowing global demand. New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods jumped 3.8 percent after being flat in October.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3 percent after rising 1.5 percent in October. Durable goods range from toasters to big-ticket items like aircraft which are meant to last three years and more.

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