Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014.

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Lucky 7*

canceled

0.44

Mind Games*

canceled

0.47

Killer Women*

canceled

0.47

The Assets*

canceled

0.48

Betrayal*

canceled

0.49

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland

canceled

0.51

Trophy Wife

canceled

0.54

The Neighbors* (F)

canceled

0.55

Black Box

summer show

0.78

Last Man Standing* (F)

renewed

0.79

Nashville

renewed

0.79

Mixology

canceled

0.85

Revenge

renewed

0.86

Back in the Game*

canceled

0.90

The Goldbergs

renewed

0.91

Suburgatory

canceled

0.92

Super Fun Night*

canceled

0.94

Castle

renewed

1.06

The Middle

renewed

1.13

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

renewed

1.19

Once Upon A Time

renewed

1.26

Resurrection

renewed

1.47

Grey’s Anatomy

renewed

1.50

Scandal*

renewed

1.78

Modern Family

renewed

1.93

–
The cancellation bear went 23-1 on his ABC predictions over the course of the 2013-14 season. (vs. 15-2 in 2012-13 and 21-1 in 2011-12) missing only on his prediction for Suburgatory renewal.

Suburgatory was indeed this season’s Happy Endings (57 episodes and done). The parallel with HE worried the bear, but Suburgatory’s relative ratings were so much better than HE’s the bear thought it would renewed.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2013-14 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/rc2/abc-renewcancel-wrap-suburgatory-trophy-wife-the-neighbors-mixology-super-fun-night-betrayal-canceled-nashville-last-man-standing-more-renewed/feed/0stevebaronsleeping-bearList of Renewed and Cancelled Broadcast Shows for the 2013-14 Broadcast Season (Final)http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/featured/list-of-renewed-and-cancelled-broadcast-shows-for-the-2013-14-broadcast-season/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/featured/list-of-renewed-and-cancelled-broadcast-shows-for-the-2013-14-broadcast-season/#respondFri, 09 May 2014 16:46:13 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=261970

With ‘Parenthood’ renewed, that’s a wrap on the 2013-14 season.

Next up, Fall broadcast network schedules for the 2014-15 season.

Last updated: 9:30p PT May 11, 2014

–

Show

Network

Status

Back In The Game

ABC

Canceled

Betrayal

ABC

Canceled

Killer Women

ABC

Canceled

Lucky 7

ABC

Canceled

Mind Games

ABC

Canceled

Mixology

ABC

Canceled

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland

ABC

Canceled

Suburgatory

ABC

Canceled

Super Fun Night

ABC

Canceled

The Neighbors

ABC

Canceled

Trophy Wife

ABC

Canceled

Bad Teacher

CBS

Canceled

Friends with Better Lives

CBS

Canceled

Hostages

CBS

Canceled

How I Met Your Mother

CBS

Final Season Finished

Intelligence

CBS

Canceled

The Crazy Ones

CBS

Canceled

We Are Men

CBS

Canceled

Nikita

CW

Final Season Finished

Star-Crossed

CW

Canceled

The Carrie Diaries

CW

Canceled

The Tomorrow People

CW

Canceled

Almost Human

Fox

Canceled

American Dad

Fox

Moving to TBS

Dads

Fox

Canceled

Enlisted

Fox

Canceled

Raising Hope

Fox

Canceled

Rake

Fox

Canceled

Surviving Jack

Fox

Canceled

Believe

NBC

Canceled

Community

NBC

Canceled

Crisis

NBC

Canceled

Dracula

NBC

Canceled

Growing Up Fisher

NBC

Canceled

Ironside

NBC

Canceled

Revolution

NBC

Canceled

Sean Saves The World

NBC

Canceled

The Michael J. Fox Show

NBC

Canceled

Welcome To The Family

NBC

Canceled

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

ABC

Renewed

Castle

ABC

Renewed

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Renewed

Last Man Standing

ABC

Renewed

Modern Family

ABC

Renewed

Nashville

ABC

Renewed

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Renewed

Resurrection

ABC

Renewed

Revenge

ABC

Renewed

Scandal

ABC

Renewed

The Goldbergs

ABC

Renewed

The Middle

ABC

Renewed

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Renewed

Blue Bloods

CBS

Renewed

Criminal Minds

CBS

Renewed

CSI

CBS

Renewed

Elementary

CBS

Renewed

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Renewed

Mike & Molly

CBS

Renewed

Mom

CBS

Renewed

NCIS

CBS

Renewed

NCIS: LA

CBS

Renewed

Person of Interest

CBS

Renewed

The Big Bang Theory

CBS

Renewed

The Good Wife

CBS

Renewed

The Mentalist

CBS

Renewed

The Millers

CBS

Renewed

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Beauty & The Beast

CW

Renewed

Hart of Dixie

CW

Renewed

Reign

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

The 100

CW

Renewed

The Originals

CW

Renewed

The Vampire Diaries

CW

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Bones

Fox

Renewed

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Glee

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

Sleepy Hollow

Fox

Renewed

The Following

Fox

Renewed

The Mindy Project

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Renewed

About a Boy

NBC

Renewed

Chicago Fire

NBC

Renewed

Chicago P.D.

NBC

Renewed

Grimm

NBC

Renewed

Hannibal

NBC

Renewed

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Renewed

Parenthood

NBC

Renewed

Parks and Recreation

NBC

Renewed

The Blacklist

NBC

Renewed

–*Though neither the Renew/Cancel Index nor Bubble Watch had Family Guy listed as already renewed, my understanding is that it was already renewed for the 2014-15 season and the confusion stems from differences between “aired” seasons (currently in the 12th) and “production” seasons (where the 12th will be the 2014-15 season).

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/1/trophy-wife-canceled-after-one-season-by-abc/feed/0stevebaronTrophy-wife-4-550x366Final ABC Predictions / Status For ‘Nashville,’ ‘Suburgatory,’ ‘The Goldbergs,’ ‘Agents of SHIELD’ & Many Morehttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/final-abc-predictions-for-nashville-suburgatory-the-goldbergs-agents-of-shield-many-more/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/final-abc-predictions-for-nashville-suburgatory-the-goldbergs-agents-of-shield-many-more/#respondTue, 06 May 2014 15:00:58 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=259443Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows&#8217; rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2014 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, we play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

As you’ll see in all the Oddsmakers posts, the cancellation bear and Tom Shaw (Bubble Watch) are boringly similar in all but one show’s prediction (it’s an NBC show).

To those who claim “You never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as thumbs up, and below 50% as thumbs down with their distance from 50% being my level of confidence.

Notes from Tom:

Will being an in-house production (Trophy Wife, The Neighbors, Mixology) trump better ratings (Suburgatory)?

While Last Man Standing will get a fourth season, will it be on ABC… or a Fox network?

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Important Note: The Network Upfronts are next week (May 12th – 15th), starting off with NBC likely announcing their schedule on May 11th but the future of nearly all existing shows and pilots will be determined by late this week.

TV by the Numbers… We Don’t Have Access To?

As the season comes to a close, I hope I have informed (and maybe entertained) you with my pet theories and observations. For all the topics I’ve written about, however, I have to admit there are a surprisingly large number of shows this year (on all the networks) whose fates are legitimately uncertain heading into this week.

Unsurprisingly, as a numbers guy, my short answer is “hogwash”. My long answer is that, just as the television audience continues to fragment, shrinking margins mean the overall profitability of a given TV show depends on more and more sub-factors we just don’t have access to. The decisions are just as quantifiable as ever – except now, only the accountants and executives at Fox, Warner Bros, etc. know all the numbers that go into those decisions.

Executive Producer Pay

On NBC, just how much money it takes for Dick Wolf to get out of his Law & Order: SVU bed in the morning will likely factor into the fates of Revolution and Parenthood (and SVU itself). On Fox, let me point out two things: Family Guy has not yet been renewed (though some unaired episodes remain for next season); Dads has not yet been canceled. Given how woefully Dads did without being paired with Brooklyn Nine-Nine, I would be surprised if Seth MacFarlane can put together a bundle persuasive enough to keep Dads on the air – but I can’t rule it out either.

Corporate Synergy

This Spring, ABC aired three shows from ABC Studios: Mixology, Trophy Wife, and The Neighbors. None are clear renewals. Will Suburgatory find itself in the cold due to its WB ownership? Or will ABC pick up more in-house pilots than usual? (Hrm, given that new shows are produced at a loss, the supervillain move would be to pick up pilots from multiple studios (thus spreading the downside to others), and then once the DOA shows are weeded out, prioritizing your in-house shows for renewals (thus keeping the upside to yourself). Does Paul Lee drive a Jaguar?) Over at The CW, does the extremely WB-skewing schedule (and that’s before The Flash enters the picture) mean that the few CBS shows will have more of a shot than the numbers would suggest – or will some WB pilots find themselves out of luck?

Sub-Demos

The prevailing wisdom for The Mindy Project’s renewal is that it does better than average in W18-34. Having good sub-demos is a useful tie-breaker, but didn’t seem enough to counter the huge 18-49 gulf between The Mindy Project and something like New Girl (or the rest of Fox’s lineup, for that matter). Now that all the Fox live-action comedies have declined to The Mindy Project’s level though, the renewal is less of a shocker.

As to why we don’t focus more on sub-demos like A18-34 or W18-34 (despite, say, Spotted Ratings wondering if A18-34 may flat out be better than A18-49 as a predictor), the answer is simple – the numbers simply aren’t widely reported, and we don’t have years of historical precedent to work with. Note that widely reported isn’t the same as widely known – imagine my surprise to find out that the overnight PR emails Fox, NBC, and ABC (and likely others) send out list the A18-34 numbers, along with a host of other sub-demos. (I’m not sure which is more alarming about Two and a Half Men being just a tenth behind American Idol in Kids12-17 this Thursday – that so many teens are watching the content of the former or that there is so little upcoming demo support for the latter.) The next time you read an entertainment site reporting on overall viewers while knowing they have access to even more interesting (and frankly meaningful) sub-demo data, you can grind your teeth even harder.

Secondary Markets

While the “old rules” were relatively straightforward (18-49 performance + syndication prospects), there was one very large exception. Call it the “HBO Corollary”: a set of shows whose overall profitability depends in large part on their performance in secondary markets, like DVD sales. The problem is that networks cannot wait to see the performance in those secondary markets before they make their renewal decisions – cast contracts would have expired by then. The only solution for those shows is to have the renewals running one season ahead of the DVD results. This is why HBO renews all their new shows (most after the first episode) – because the real decision doesn’t come until they see the DVD, streaming, etc. numbers.

(Since we’re in the time of year to talk about historical surprise renewals, one other member of this club? Dollhouse. My opinion is that Fox wondered (or worried) if Dollhouse would have strong DVD sales, due to the success there of Whedon’s last show (Firefly). This is the real reason for the “Fox not airing ‘Epitaph One’” mess. It wasn’t that Fox hated the show so much they would throw out fresh inventory (especially since they would later air all 13 episodes of Season 2); it was that the entire renewal was predicated on solid DVD sales (and the producers’ claims that Season 2 could be produced on the cheap), and what better way to goose the Season 1 sales than to limit the episode to the DVD?)

—

This week’s category moves:

Almost Human was cancelled by Fox. As previously covered, television history gave it long odds to survive; apparently, even the demise of The X-Factor didn’t create enough room to give the show a second chance.

Bad Teacher plummeted 33% in Week 2. While you could argue that the show was up against stronger-than-average competition on NBC this week, 1) Networks tend to judge late season swoons harshly, and 2) The “best” case is that Bad Teacher is highly influenced by the competition. Either way, I can’t imagine CBS gives it another shot.

Friends with Better Lives, against stronger competition on Mondays, is holding up nicely even while its Thursday competition buckles… so I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.

Let’s be clear: if CBS renews another comedy, I overwhelmingly believe it will be Friends with Better Lives. The question then becomes, what are the odds that CBS renews another comedy? CBS is highly unlikely to need emergency spackle next Fall: both new comedies will get The Big Bang Theory as a lead-in, with the Monday newbie getting 5-6 airings behind TBBT (and likely being the stable How I Met Your Dad spin-off anyway) and the Thursday newbie likely getting its entire run behind TBBT.

The only way a FwBL renewal makes sense is if one of Mike & Molly or Two and a Half Men gets such a short order that it needs to be paired with another show to fill out the timeslot for the season (despite both shows likely needing to cover five less weeks out of the season due to Thursday Night Football) – and even then, CBS renewing a non-CBS owned midseason show is something they haven’t done in a decade or more. Network history would suggest they pick up another pilot instead.

Unforgettable and Black Box are both Summer shows whose fates depend on their Summer ratings (among other factors) and thus won’t be known for months. For clarity’s sake, I’ve removed them from the table.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 27, 2014):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Lucky 7*

canceled

0.44

Mind Games*

canceled

0.47

Killer Women*

canceled

0.47

The Assets*

canceled

0.48

Betrayal*

0.49

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland

canceled

0.51

The Neighbors* (F)

0.55

Trophy Wife

0.55

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.79

Nashville

0.81

Mixology

0.85

Black Box

summer show

0.87

Revenge

0.88

Back in the Game*

canceled

0.90

The Goldbergs

0.92

Super Fun Night*

0.94

Suburgatory

0.94

Castle

1.05

The Middle

1.16

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

1.19

Once Upon A Time

1.26

Resurrection

1.50

Grey’s Anatomy

1.50

Scandal*

1.78

Modern Family

1.98

–
Who is Entertainment Weekly kidding? “Trophy Wife: Not as likely as Goldbergs, but ABC really likes this one.” Certainly not the cancellation bear, nor anyone else able to do any critical thinking. As the bear always says, TV executives “love” every show on their air, until they cancel it, and then it’s as if it never existed at all.

No predictions for Black Box from the bear. Even though it started its run during the season that was only because Scandal had to cut its episode order short. It’s a summer show, and the bear doesn’t bother with summer shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

For years, the flow of a show’s ratings was relatively predictable over the course of a season: a show would have a big premiere, drop a couple tenths to settle at its Fall rating, drop a couple more tenths in early Spring to settle as its Spring rating, and then have a big finale. The problem with the ratings in the modern era, though, is that most shows no longer significantly rise for season premieres and finales, yet continue to drop in Spring. Those Spring drops are effectively permanent – what shows are doing now plus one or two tenths is their ceiling for next season. This relentless downward trend – plus the ongoing demise of various veteran reality warhorses – is the cause of the broadcast networks reliably shrinking around 10% every year.

(Why shows drop in Spring is an interesting question. Is it that once a show drops to DVR/Hulu status, it is unlikely to rise back up to live viewing status (even The Good Wife has already lost its Josh Charles-related bump)? Does cable (and now online) offer stronger options in Spring? Or is the mass market’s attention span not much more than roughly four months long?)

Considering the likely permanence of these Spring drops, which shows’ performances have jumped out at me? (Note: all these averages toss out their first two weeks’ ratings. Those early weeks are simply too affected by premieres (both theirs and the competitions) to be representative.)

For as much positive attention as the The CW received in Fall, reality has caught up with them with a vengeance in Spring, with many of their shows down almost 30%. Supernatural continues to be the undersung gem of the schedule, and The 100, while benefitting from fresh legs, is holding up (and levelling off) nicely compared to how The Tomorrow People did there in Fall. The Originals only being down as much as The Vampire Diaries despite the former now being opposite The Voice is impressive, while The Tomorrow People has predictably cratered under The Voice.

An underreported Spring story is the recent decline of NCIS (which is not SHIELD related – NCIS was steady at ~3 until The Olympics), taking NCIS:Los Angeles down with it. It isn’t network wide, as Criminal Minds and CSI are basically flat. While Elementary isn’t down much, the average again shows that the modern business realities have caught up to even CBS @10. Meanwhile, no longer airing against the NFL, The Mentalist has a real axe to grind, up more than The Good Wife this Spring without any shock deaths.

Even while The Voice cools down, The Blacklist remains strong – with Scandal out of the picture, it was broadcast’s #1 drama by half a demo point this week. While SVU has bounced up and down this year, it’s not surprising that Dick Wolf would balk at too much of a paycut for a show that overall isn’t sinking. And while Parenthood and Revolution are both low, only Parenthood is stable (and doesn’t need two full seasons for syndication).

FOX

New Girl (1.9 to 1.3, -32%), The Mindy Project (1.4 to 1.0, -29%), Bones (2.125 to 1.5, -29%), The Following (1.725 to 1.4, -19%), Bob’s Burgers (1.7 to 0.825, -51%)

Literally, what is there positive to say aboutFox? Even the post-Super Bowl slot hasn’t saved New Girl from the declines every other show is seeing, and while the Cosmos-related schedule moves have hurt all the animated shows, Bob’s Burgers has absolutely cratered in recent weeks @7:30. Hopefully 24 still has something left in the tank.

ABC

Modern Family (3.925 to 3.45, -12%), The Middle (2.25 to 1.95, -13%), The Goldbergs (1.725 to 1.525, -11%), Last Man Standing (1.325 to 1.3, -2%), Revenge (1.55 to 1.375, -11%), Once Upon a Time (2.3 to 2.05, -11%), Nashville (1.55 to 1.425, -8%), Grey’s Anatomy (2.7 to 2.55, -6%), Castle (2.025 to 1.75, -14%)

ABC’s Spring drops are strangely uniform; the network’s problem lies in the poor ratio of freshmen hits to DOA shows. It is likely ABC’s slow decline will continue until they get aggressive and shuffle their schedule around; it is unlikely ABC will shuffle their schedule around until the cumulative decline puts them in Fox territory.

—

This week’s premieres:

Black Box premiered to an underwhelming 1.5 rating. As a regular season show, I’d instantly peg it as a cancellation; as a Summer co-production brought up early due to Kerry Washington’s pregnancy, all I can do is throw my hands up and put it “On The Bubble”.

Bad Teacher premiered to a middle-of-the-road 2.1. That 2.1 is better than what Friends with Better Lives has been rating after 2 Broke Girls; Bad Teacher is also unlikely to stay at that premiere rating. Which show out of the two (if either) CBS prefers will likely go down to the wire. (Note that CBS doesn’t have to renew another comedy, if Mike & Molly and Two and a Half Men both premiere in Fall. With The Big Bang Theory taking a Monday slot during CBS’ Thursday Night Football roster, and Thursday Night Football taking all the Thursday slots through October 23rd, neither veteran show necessarily even has to get a full order to be able to premiere in Fall.)

The CBS TNF Package Revealed

For those that don’t follow the NFL, we found out this week that CBS’s TNF package is seven Thursday games, from September 11th through October 23rd, and a Saturday game on December 20th. All of CBS’ Thursday games are matchups between teams in the same division, which is a double-edged sword: On one hand, divisional games are highly anticipated by the local fans; on the other hand, there may be less interest from the rest of the country (will literally anyone outside of the Central Time Zone care about the Vikings/Packers game?) How huge numbers in some local markets vs. mediocre nationwide numbers works out will be interesting.

Tom’s Multimedia Soapbox

Speaking of the NFL, head over to the Ross Tucker Podcast to hear from the NFL’s head of scheduling on just how difficult it is to put together the schedule for the multi-network monstrosity that is the modern NFL. Then again, as a football-loving computer programmer, I may be uniquely disposed to finding the notion of NFL employees talking about solution spaces hilarious.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 20, 2014):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Lucky 7*

canceled

0.44

Mind Games*

canceled

0.47

Killer Women*

canceled

0.47

The Assets*

canceled

0.48

Betrayal*

0.49

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland

canceled

0.52

Trophy Wife

0.55

The Neighbors (F)

0.56

Last Man Standing (F)

0.79

Nashville

0.82

Mixology

0.86

Back in the Game*

canceled

0.90

Revenge

0.90

The Goldbergs

0.93

Super Fun Night*

0.94

Suburgatory

0.95

Castle

1.06

The Middle

1.18

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

1.21

Once Upon A Time

1.27

Grey’s Anatomy

1.54

Resurrection

1.58

Scandal*

1.78

Modern Family

1.98

–
There’s only two more weeks before the cancellation bear posts his final % renewal guesses for the 2013-14 season, and he always likes to get his predictions into headlines to feed the sleepless, soulless search engines. Since the bear has decided he will be giving Nashville a slightly positive chance for renewal in his final guess, he might as well put it into the headline today. At 82% of the ABC scripted show ratings average since Jan 1, Nashville is on the ragged edge of the range that would signal renewal for a sophomore show. Close enough to tip the bears prediction positively.

Now the bear just has to figure out the ABC headline for next week.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

For most shows, the odds of renewal boil down to just two questions: “How close are the ratings to the network average?”, and if worse than average, “Do they have syndication money on the horizon?” For the true bubble candidates, however, there are a host of outside factors that the public simply has no concrete information on. Here are some of the questions I’m asking myself as we head into the home stretch:

How much of a ratings bump does The Voice provide?About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher continue to be NBC’s top rated comedies; then again, neither has aired in its regular timeslot without a new episode of The Voice as a lead-in. How much of that audience disappears if they move elsewhere? Revolution lost about half a demo point moving to Wednesdays; a similar drop for the comedies would leave About a Boy as an above-average comedy while Growing Up Fisher would end up right around Parks and Community – but without the syndication upside.

How expensive do veteran shows get? All shows get more expensive with age, and the most likely cause of “surprise” cancellations are veteran shows that have become so expensive that even the syndicated backend no longer keeps them competitive. This year’s candidates were obviously Two and a Half Men and Law & Order: SVU, and while Two and a Half Men squeaked by (albeit with chatter that it is likely for a shorter, probably final, season), SVU may not. There are already reports that NBC wants a cost reduction to keep it going. Last time around (with the original Law & Order), NBC called Wolf’s bluff and canceled the show, so it will be interesting to see how Wolf responds this time.

How cheap are those international co-productions? Both Dracula and Hannibal are likely cheaper than the average NBC drama; then again, they had better be if they want a renewal, as their ratings are downright middling compared to the rest of NBC’s Monday-Friday slate. The more important question is likely “How cheap are Dracula and Hannibal compared to the other co-productions NBC is being offered for next season?”

How much would Almost Human have fallen in Spring? Most Springs are rough on the ratings, and this year is no exception, with the majority of shows recording series lows over the last month. Almost Human missing those Spring declines (by not being on the air) means that the ratings it ended with are now literally higher than the rest of Fox’s live-action shows. How Fox models how Almost Human would likely be performing now is the key – drops similar to what The Following has seen would put it at around a mere 1.3, a rating superior to Fox’s comedies but by no means worth breaking the bank for. Then again, the bigger question at Fox is…

Can Fox put together a version of American Idol that is profitable at the current ratings? Assuming the show continues to struggle to hit a 2.0 next season, can Fox put together a judging panel for peanuts that their audience would actually want to watch? And even if it comes back, how many hours out of the schedule would it be for?

How much extra income does Nashville’s singles, tours, etc. bring in? To be clear, Nashville’s ratings are underwhelming, half a demo point under the next-worst ABC drama (Castle) that isn’t being dragged along to syndication (Revenge). Considering how everything that ABC tried in its death slots (Tue@10, Thu@8) this season performed, if those alternate revenue streams for Nashville amount to anything meaningful, that should be enough for a renewal, especially since they still have a supporter in…

What dirt does Paul Lee have on the Disney board? This week Paul Lee received a contract extension as head of ABC. As preposterous as I would have found this six months ago, after a brutal Spring, this isn’t too surprising – Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has gone from a spin-off that would not level off into something that’s competitive with CBS’ drama ratings, The Goldbers has gone from a comedy that’s a sharp step down from the Wednesday ABC ratings into something that’s competitive with NBC’s and Fox’s comedies, and Resurrection is a nice bonus (even if I’m not sure it makes it into 2015 alive).

For those playing along at home, NBC’s Greenblatt signed a new contract in September, CBS’ Tassler got a promotion/extension in February, and now ABC’s Lee received his extension this week. With The CW’s Pedowitz managing their decline about as well as can be expected, the first takeaway is I will continue to assume ulterior motives when the new guy on the hot seat (Fox’s Reilly) wants to change the conversation (by, say, altering his pilot process). The second takeaway is that, despite the continued declines across the industry, the network ownerships have essentially (and alarmingly) declared “We don’t think anyone else can do significantly better.”

How important is an ABC Studios show to ABC on Fridays? ABC’s Friday comedy block revival has always been a bit mysterious. The network could likely do similar (or better) ratings with cheaper unscripted shows; the assumption is that it was worth the gamble to ABC to try and hit on an in-house production succeeding there (Malibu Country last season and The Neighbors this season were both ABC productions). The problem? The only existing ABC productions (Trophy Wife and Mixology) are doing poorly even before the move to Friday. So do we assume that at least one ABC-produced comedy pilot gets picked up for Fridays, or else one of the existing shows gets another shot? Or do we wonder if the block continues at all, as…

Who has the leverage with Last Man Standing?

For shows with 66 episodes, we assume a renewal, as the network can squeeze the producer desperate to hit the preferred 88 episodes for syndication. At least, under normal circumstances – and Last Man Standing may be the exception. On one side, as mentioned above, ABC could do better in the hour with unscripted programming, especially if they have no good in-house candidate to pair with Last Man Standing. On the other side, Fox has no reason to produce the show at a deep loss, as they could find room for it on one of their networks (Fox, FX, FXX, etc.) So who is squeezing whom to make the renewal (on ABC) a guarantee?

—

This week’s notable events:

2 Broke Girls, in its new time slot leading off Monday nights, was essentially flat from its last airing, while Friends with Better Lives rated in-line with how The Crazy Ones has averaged this Spring. (For a summary of how brutal this Spring has been, I’ll just say this: In Fall, We Are Men’s second episode rating a 1.8 got it pulled and cancelled. In Spring, Friends with Better Lives’ second episode rating a 1.8 now puts into the pole position for “next CBS comedy renewed”.) How stable those numbers will be next week without a notable guest star remains to be seen.

The Crazy Ones ended its season with a double airing, with the second episode rating a mere 1.3. Despite the names involved in the show, a 1.3 is not likely to cut it.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

The broadcast networks have finished casting the overwhelming majority of their pilots for the year. Can we derive any clues on their scheduling from the number and types of pilots they’re shooting for next season? For example, everyone should have seen the number of (and talent involved in the) comedy pilots for CBS last season and known that they were seriously considering expanding their comedy hours.

(One quick disclaimer – don’t take any of the specific past numbers as gospel, as the history of failed shows gets cloudy fast. The following numbers only include regular season entries; the Fox numbers do not include any animated shows, as they are their own beast.)

Here’s why I wrote “seriously considering” rather than “definitely” expanding their comedies last season – CBS actually had more drama pilots last season than the two before it, despite all the extra comedy pilots! Yet that large number of drama pilots merely resulted in the failures of Hostages and Intelligence last season – combine with the number of comedies and dramas now regularly dropping below a 2.0 rating, and it should be clear to the CBS executives that they’re firmly on the same downward slope as everyone else.

CBS has enough stockpiled past success though that they still only have two gaping holes – and one of those was caused by one of their most successful shows ending! So while The Crazy Ones actually tied or beat every other comedy on the competition this week, and The Mentalist competitive in the hour and actually having a slightly higher average than its lead-in for the season, their chances of survival are low. The Crazy Ones would likely need both of this season’s midseason comedies to fail and Mike & Molly and/or Two and a Half Men ordered for short seasons and kept off the Fall schedule (despite the latter being the second best comedy anchor CBS has left). The Mentalist would need WB to offer a price tag so low that it could timeshare with Undercover Boss for a final run in Spring, and beat whatever Sony is offering for Unforgettable.

(Speaking of which, yes, these are “leftover” second season episodes of Unforgettable. That’s also irrelevant. This is a different Nielsen season; the much larger point is that the performance of these episodes helps factor into any Season 4 renewal, not the Season 3 renewal that long since happened.)

And then there’s Fox. The demise of The X-Factor, questioning if American Idol can cut costs enough to be viable at its current ratings and sponsorships, and changes in its development pipeline have all led to one of the murkiest situations in recent memory.

In most years, the no- and short backorders for Almost Human and Dads would be a virtual death sentence; this year, the ratings competitive-with-already-renewed shows and general chaos of the schedule mean that a reprieve for one of those two would not shock me. The far more likely candidate is Almost Human; with three comedies renewed and three more already ordered to series, Fox would need to schedule at least three comedy hours before they would have any need for the likes of Dads or Surviving Jack. When even Friday reality shows do better than their comedies, there is little reason to expect Fox to schedule comedies in bulk.

Tom’s Soapbox

Kevin Reilly recently made a rare development-season appearance over at Grantland. Frankly, I would have been a bit more pointed in my questioning:

Audience vs. Revenue. Reilly (and the rest of the network heads) continue to point out that the overall audience is basically flat – the audience is still there, they are just watching on Netflix or on their DVRs or on Hulu. That statement is also irrelevant. If that audience isn’t being monetized (as much in the case of Hulu, or at all in the case of DVR viewing weeks later), then they effectively do not exist. Just because people still enjoy the programming doesn’t mean the network model will survive if networks are only bringing in a fraction of the ad revenue they used to.

New Pilot Model vs. New PR Stunt. Greenwald points out that at their nadir, NBC too claimed they were abandoning the old pilot system. In retrospect, it seems like NBC’s intent was a transparent ploy to divert attention away from their ratings struggles. Is the Fox situation any different?

Even if it is legitimate, has anything really changed at Fox? While they’ve picked up a couple failed pilots (e.g. Backstrom, Mulaney), for the most part it seems like Fox’s new model really just means that (some) scripts get picked up a year early, so Fox has the first crack at unemployed talent before the standard pilot casting window. What’s to stop everyone else from escalating the arms race and picking up their scripts early as well? (Note: NBC already has a series order (Shades of Blue) in for the 15/16 season.)

Pilot Process vs. Upfront Process. As domestic ad revenue continues to shrink, international and online rights sales continue to grow in importance. While the traditional upfronts aid in those sales (by being able to show the finished pilots), how exactly will that work with something that effectively doesn’t exist beyond a script? How does Fox sell, say, The Middle Man? “We don’t have a cast or even know which season (if any) it will air, but buy it today, because it’ll be great!”

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 3, 2014):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Lucky 7*

canceled

0.44

Mind Games*

canceled

0.47

Killer Women*

canceled

0.47

The Assets*

canceled

0.48

Betrayal*

0.49

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland

canceled

0.52

The Neighbors (F)

0.57

Trophy Wife

0.57

Last Man Standing (F)

0.82

Nashville

0.83

Back in the Game*

canceled

0.90

Mixology

0.92

Super Fun Night*

0.94

Revenge

0.95

The Goldbergs

0.95

Suburgatory

0.96

Castle

1.08

The Middle

1.19

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

1.24

Once Upon A Time

1.34

Grey’s Anatomy

1.55

Resurrection

1.75

Scandal

1.78

Modern Family

2.01

–This is a special vacation version of the cancellation bear’s predictions written on and including ratings through only April 3. The bear will be back with updated predictions on April 22.

With the cancellation bear far, far away from TV news and his computer, he’s giving readers a chance to doubt *any* of his current predictions, whether they’re renewals or cancellations. The poll includes every show not already renewed or canceled, or currently predicted as a “toss up” by the bear. Choose as many shows as you’d like, and note how very, very wrong the bear is in the comments.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Friends with Better Lives premiered to a The Millers-esque rating, after the How I Met Your Mother finale delivered The Big Bang Theory-esque numbers. Friends with Better Lives won’t have that level of lead-in in the future, and I’m leaving it “On the Bubble” until I see at least a week of regular scheduling. (And another reminder: the last CBS midseason scripted freshman, drama or comedy, that was renewed was the CBS-owned Rules of Engagement, back in the 06-07 season.)

Unforgettable returned to a rating in-line with what it was seeing in September, well under what Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods have been getting this Spring. The economics of Summer shows are too fuzzy for our standard evaluations, and all I can do is label it “On The Bubble” and wash my hands of it as far as predicting additional seasons (though it has already been renewed for a 3rd season slated for this summer).

Rake was moved to Saturday nights. I’ve moved it to “Canceled”.

—

The broadcast networks have finished casting the overwhelming majority of their pilots for the year. Can we derive any clues on their scheduling from the number and types of pilots they’re shooting for next season?

(One quick disclaimer – don’t take any of the specific past numbers as gospel, as the history of failed shows gets cloudy fast. The following numbers do not include international co-productions and only include regular season entries.)

14 Comedy pilots – plus two comedies already ordered to series! While NBC could still cut down the number of comedy hours next season, that number of comedy pilots makes it clear that they haven’t committed to doing so yet. And the more comedy hours are on the schedule, the better the chances for the likes of Community. Then again, Community hit a new series low this week, likely hurt by one of the most impenetrable (to the mass audience) openings in recent TV history. (And why is Destro always the one getting it?) Still, I’m moving it to “Renewal Predicted”, as at least two comedy hours in Fall now seems likely.

Meanwhile on Tuesdays, the existing comedies continue to diverge, with About a Boy levelling off while Growing Up Fisher still settles, now at just 75% of its leadin. With NBC almost certain to try new shows after The Voice in Fall, there is little reason to think Growing Up Fisher would survive a move to a new night, and I’m moving it to “Cancellation Predicted”.

On the drama front, while just eight pilots is low, that roster is bolstered by the two series and a mini-series already ordered. Though Revolution and Parenthood have both averaged a mere 1.2ish since the Olympics, it is worth repeating that Parenthood could remain profitable with just a 13 (or less) episode final season, while Revolution still needs two full seasons to hit 88 episodes. There is potentially space on the Spring schedule (Sundays look like a complete reboot). There is no space on the Fall schedule. As such, I’ve moved Parenthood to “On The Bubble”.

And in the international co-production slot, Hannibal tied its season low this week. Even with that low, Hannibal’s 2014 average is still higher than Dracula’s 2014 average. If the domestic rights to Hannibal are anywhere near as low as rumored, another late Spring/early Summer run makes a lot of sense. I’ve moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.

Your first impression at only seeing six pilots may be to assume The CW considers the spinoffs (The Flash and Supernatural: Bloodlines) as locks. However, six pilots have resulted in as little as two and as many as four new shows in the Pedowitz era. The CW will pick up as many shows as it needs, regardless of how many pilots they have to work with.

The reality is The CW is overwhelmingly likely to have new shows at W@9 and Th@9 next season. So the real question boils down to “What does The CW do opposite The Voice on Mondays?”

Do they repeat this year’s strategy of throwing low-future shows under The Voice (likely Reign and one of The Tomorrow People or The 100) with one more new show (whether reality or scripted) in reserve for Mondays, for a total of just three new shows for the season?

Do they attempt to go bold and move Supernatural to lead off the night, with another new show following @9, for three new Fall shows and a new midseason or two for Spring?

Of course, the decision may be out of The CW’s hands, as it relies on The CW having two low hope (but not DOA) options to start with. And that is still up in the air – The 100 continues to settle (who knows what its floor will be), while The Tomorrow People bounces around in its new timeslot, unsurprisingly lower than its Wednesday Spring average. If they are both unsalvageable, then The CW may have no choice but to move Supernatural.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.