As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.

With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.

That is troublesome.

And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday nights polling, he was tied. We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan. More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.

All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.

Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.

Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obamas negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks. But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.

Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.

It may be that Obamas visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.

Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.

This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the presidents recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it. We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.

That fat gasbag Crispy Creme Christie has cost Romney dearly in the polls with his effusive praise of the Great Pretender - and then we watched as 4 days later FEMA was still not on the ground, people are eating out of dumpsters, and coming to blows in hours-long gas lines.

This schmuck should be finished in Republican politics. It ends here. If he costs Romney the election, he should be persona non grata. Let him become a Democrat, since he loves them so much. Bastard.

Christie wants to run in 2016, and since it looks like Mitt is in the lead, he needed to so what was necessary to get Obama elected. Of course, I still expect Mitt to win, and I suspect Christie will switch parties and run as a communist Democrat in 2016.

5
posted on 11/02/2012 4:44:30 PM PDT
by Thane_Banquo
(Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)

IOTW: This country is going to turn its back on freedom and continue down Obama’s road to communism because Barry did a few photo ops before heading to Vegas after a storm? We don’t deserve what we’ve got in this country.

6
posted on 11/02/2012 4:45:35 PM PDT
by FlingWingFlyer
(Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)

Christie thinks he'll receive credit for bipartisanship in the face of disaster but the best he'll get from democrats is the back of their hand the next time they have a chance to vote for one of their own.

And when that time comes many republicans will remember what he did for Obama in the days leading up to this election, when the fate of the entire nation hangs in the balance, and say 'no thanks' big fella.

So a photo op is going to convince thousands of voters without jobs and struggling to make ends meet to vote for Obama again?

I don’t buy it, he didn’t even DO anything. And now people are starting to see how much a mess NYC is, and that’s not going to jive well with “Obama is wonderful” now that New Yorkers are rifling through dumpsters.

This is a a fundraising email to get cash for Michael Reagan’s PAC. Take it with some caution. I was trying to get a sense of his true feelings. Well see what Morris is saying over the next couple days.

13
posted on 11/02/2012 4:50:50 PM PDT
by ilgipper
(Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)

My concern was that O was going to spend the rest of the campaign in NY and NJ. That would have sealed his deal. I was wrong. He came, he saw, he got his picture taken and then turned tail. The polls will catch up with this before Tuesday.

I don’t think Obama’s “Mutt & Jeff” photos with belligerant slob Christie will hurt Mitt at all by next Tuesday. They are two of the most repulsive human beings in American politics, I don’t think either one of them can be much help to the other as far as popularity. That goes for Bloomberg too.

Screw you Morris... Really because crispy creme gets up there with Obama it will cause that many people to change their vote? I don’t believe it. On the other hand Cristie is toast for the future if he doesn’t turn on BHO this weekend for not walking his talk.

Yes there has been minor slippage in some polls. Morris is probably right that momentum stalled due to the hurricane. But polls probably would've "tightened" anyway, just before the election. They always do.

Voter intensity is key. Our side has never lost its intensity! On the other hand, does anyone really believe voters are going to get fired up over Obama NOW ... just because he did a "presidential" photo-op with Christie* and a few hurricane victims (who, by the way, are still suffering terribly, despite Obama's waving his magic wand).

Obama may well find his exploitation of Sandy backfiring over the weekend.

*Oh and speaking of Christie: I come from the place in NJ where Christie got his political start. He was elected to the office of County Freeholder --then booted in the next election because he was such a jerk. President Bush then appointed the failed Freeholder Christie to the post of US attorney. This gave Christie lots of face time on TV, and a chance to look tough. But watch out. Christie is inconsistent in his character, and he is no constitutional conservative.

THe problem as defined is: Obama seems to be gaining just as the weekend starts.

That’s a bad omen, we can wake up Monday morning to very bad numbers for Romney.

I personally believe Romney blows Obama out, but they keep giving me nagging doubts. I don’t blame Christie for anything as I see no motivation for him to do so other than for his constituents in NJ, and cannot believe he thinks he has a shot at 2016. He would if he came around and became physically fit during this election cycle but even if he made it 2013’s New Years resolution he won’t be a viable candidate in 2016.

I stand by my prediciton, Obama loses all but 1 swing state and looses a surprise “safe” blue state.

A few days of the Incompetent Kenyan talking about a hurricane won’t undo 4 years worth of unemployment stats.

Besides, the “Sandy story” has yet to fully play out - there’s still 4 days to go. Who says there won’t be some story about Bammy enjoying a deluxe champagne dinner or NBA game while the public suffers? THAT could change the ratio 5% overnight. There’s a million things that could happen.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2012, among a random national sample of 2,131 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results among the sample of 1,535 likely voters have a margin of error of three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

39
posted on 11/02/2012 5:03:48 PM PDT
by LibLieSlayer
(OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)

You are correct, but one minor adjustment. NJ was never going for Romney. That is the downside. People from outside NY and NJ are looking at NY and NJ and they are being driven to Romney. Now if Romney had some time to come down hard on Sandy and how ineffective the federal government is in responding to these things, he could win NJ and NY. That time doesn't exist before the Tuesday. Only personal responsibility, neighborhoods, and local government can respond to these events. Even when a state government gets involved things get screwed up.

49
posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:05 PM PDT
by ConservativeInPA
(I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)

"Let me be clear. I, me, my administration has this situation well in hand. The necessities are coming. By necessities I mean an airplane full of hookers and Crispy Cremes. I want Governor Christie and Senator Menenedez to keep on sayin' nice things about me."

50
posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:10 PM PDT
by LostInBayport
(When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)

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