Friday, October 25, 2013

There is no doubt that President Obama’s health care system promises to fundamentally transform America. It’s been touted as the saving grace of the working class.

Image: Obamacare Protest.

But how feasible is it really?

We know it’s essentially a wealth redistribution scheme that takes money from one group of people in the form of forced tax payments, only to shift that money into the pockets of those who didn’t earn it in the form of government subsidies to their health care premiums.

But like all universal programs, the promise of free anything only works so long as you don’t run out of other people’s money.

That being said, a basic analysis of how Obamacare premiums work across the spectrum of America’s wide ranging socio-economic population suggests that it’s dead on arrival.

Once the forced mandates take hold one of two outcomes become inevitable, as noted by The Market Ticker, whose Karl Denninger took a detailed look at the government’s county-by-county premium data.

The consequences of implementation will be disastrous.

Either the Obamacare system itself collapses under its own weight, or the U.S. economy falls apart because of the extreme burden being hoisted on those who are responsible for paying the bill.

Either way, we’re looking at an almost instantaneous collapse of one or the other.

It’s an exercise in basic arithmetic that those who failed to read the bill before passing it should have considered prior to pushing this on the American people by way of a new stealth tax… unless of course the further impoverishment of America is their ultimate goal.

There are several very interesting statistical facts that come from this.

First, if you’re “27″, the average premium is $266.20/month or $3,194.40 per year. How many 27 year olds have an extra $3,200 to spend on this? Remember, this is the price that virtually every uninsured 27 year old must be willing — and able — to cough up in order to prevent the model this system is predicated on from collapsing.

If those 27 year olds don’t show up, and they won’t, then the system collapses instantly. If they do show up because the government threatens them with fines the economy collapses as $3,200 a year exceeds the average 27 year old’s disposable personal income after mandatory expenses (e.g. food, shelter, etc.) Remember, there are always exceptions but these premiums are averages and over large pools of people the statistical averages are what matters — not the ends of the barbell.

It gets better. The “average” 50 year old premium, again, for single coverage, is $452.87, or $5,434.44/year. How many 50 year olds will find that attractive compared against what they’re paying now? Probably more of them, especially if they’re already sick. But how about the healthy ones?

Note two things as well on this account — these premiums are for non-smokers (smoker premiums are grossly surcharged with reports being 2x the above) and they do not account for anyone other than one person. If you are a single parent with kids (rather common) the premium on average is $610.23/month or about $7,300, and if you’re a couple it’s $647.86 (again, $7,774 annually.)

Now let’s look at the government’s own claims. First, the CPI index claims that health insurance is 0.656% of the family budget. What percentage of couples make $1.185 million a year? Why do I ask? Because that’s the alleged median income for a couple if you believe the government’s CPI numbers.

Yeah, right.

Next, while some people will get “tax credits” to offset these costs all that does is lard it up on the federal budget, because someone else has to pay that bill. In other words this is the true cost that will come out of your hide one way or another — either directly by paying, indirectly by taxation, or indirectly by destruction of your purchasing power.

Next, note that this is the “50 year old” premium but you have to be 65 to qualify for Medicare. The price will rise each year after 50 that you happen to be and there are already reports that if you’re 59 these premiums are understated by half. How many couples who are 59 and cannot qualify for Medicare yet have not $7,700 a year of extra money laying around but north of $15,000?

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Nine senior commanding generals have been fired by the Obama administration this year, leading to speculation by active and retired members of the military that a purge of its commanders is underway.

Retired generals and current senior commanders that have spoken with TheBlaze say the administration is not only purging the military of commanders they don’t agree with, but is striking fear in the hearts of those still serving.

The timing comes as the five branches of the U.S. armed forces are reducing staff due to budget cuts, and as U.S. troops are expected to withdraw from Afghanistan next year.

“I think they’re using the opportunity of the shrinkage of the military to get rid of people that don’t agree with them or not tow the party line. Remember, as (former White House chief of staff) Rahm Emanuel said, never waste a crisis,” a senior retired general told TheBlaze on the condition of anonymity because he still provide services to the government and fears possible retribution.

“Even as a retired general, it’s still possible for the administration to make life miserable for us. If we’re working with the government or have contracts, they can just rip that out from under us,” he said.

Retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, an outspoken critic of the Obama administration, said the White House fails to take action or investigate its own, but finds it easy to fire military commanders “who have given their lives for their country.”

“Obama will not purge a civilian or political appointee because they have bought into Obama’s ideology,” Vallely said. “The White House protects their own. That’s why they stalled on the investigation into fast and furious, Benghazi and Obamacare. He’s intentionally weakening and gutting our military, Pentagon and reducing us as a superpower, and anyone in the ranks who disagrees or speaks out is being purged.”

Just imagine an undisciplined out-of-control spender whose credit limit has just been extended. In other words, they can continue overspending without any accountability. That “they” is the U.S. government.

It’s been almost a week since Congress reached a temporary deal to suspend the U.S. government’s debt ceiling and the Treasury department has already wasted no time by adding another $375 billion in new debt.

Suspension of a cap on U.S. debt, which was previously fixed at $16.69 trillion, means the Treasury department, headed by Jack Lew, can effectively spend whatever amount of money it needs or wants.

How much debt can the U.S. government rack up by the next debt ceiling deadline on Feb. 7, 2014? At the current spending pace of $375 billion per week, U.S. public debt would reach $22.70 trillion.

Numerous times, we’ve written extensively about how the U.S. Treasury had been using accounting shenanigans to avoid going over the previous legal debt limit. We also made the point that any corporation or corporate executive that attempted to use the U.S. Treasury’s same accounting tactics would be charged with fraud. Others too have caught on to the U.S. Treasury’s financial games.

"When you are the largest economy in the world, when you are the safe haven in all circumstances, as has been the case, you can't go into that creative accounting business," said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde in an interview with NBC News' Meet the Press.

What does the bond market have to say about this?

After reaching a yearly high of 2.97%, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries (NYSEARCA:IEF) has since fallen by 12.5%. Put another way, the bond market is saying that it doesn’t care about the fiscal realities of the U.S. government’s unmanageable debt load. Eventually, when it does start caring, that reality will be first reflected in key price levels highlighted in our latest Technical Forecast.

In the meantime, Treasury bulls are celebrating.

ETFs that benefit from lower yields and higher Treasury bond prices like the ProShares Ultra 20+ Yr. Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:UBT) and the Direxion Daily 20+ Yr. Treasury Bull 3x Shares (NYSEARCA:TMF) have gained between 8% to 12% since early September. Treasury bonds with long-term maturities (NYSEARCA:TLT) like those tracked by UBT and TMF are most sensitive to changes in interest rates compared to Treasuries (NYSEARCA:SHY) with maturities of less than 10-years.

The table above is from the U.S. Treasury’s daily statement.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses a combination of market sentiment, fundamental/technical analysis, market history, and common sense to be on the right side of the market. Since the beginning of the year, 74% of our time stamped ETF picks have turned a profit and our biggest win was a +525% gainer. (through 9/30/13)Follow us on Twitter @ ETFguide

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Pastor John Hagee was invited by Fox News this week to discuss the significance of four blood moons coming over the next two years – on the Jewish Passovers on April 15, 2014, and April 4, 2015, and the Feasts of Tabernacles on Oct. 8, 2014, and Sept. 28, 2015.

For example, when it happened in 1493 and 1494 Jews were expelled from Spain. The blood moons in 1949 and 1950 came right after the nation of Israel was assembled, giving the Jews a homeland for the first time in thousands of years.

And in 1967 and 1968 it was linked to the Six-Day War.

“This is something that just is beyond coincidental,” Hagee told Fox. He explained that the prophecies in the Bible note that when the sun refuses to shine – and a solar eclipse is expected in the 2014-2015 time frame – and the moon will be turned to blood, then man’s redemption draweth near.

In the Old Testament, the prophet Joel states, “The sun shall be turned into darkness, and the moon into blood, before the great and the terrible day of the LORD come.” (Joel 2:31)

In the New Testament, Jesus is quoted as saying: “Immediately after the tribulation of those days shall the sun be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light. … And then shall appear the sign of the Son of man in heaven: and then shall all the tribes of the earth mourn, and they shall see the Son of man coming in the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.” (Matthew 24:29-30)

Acts 2 states: “And I will show wonders in the heavens and in the earth, blood and fire and pillars of smoke. The sun shall be turned into darkness and the moon into blood before the great and terrible day of the Lord comes.”

Pastor Mark Biltz talked with WND about the issue, elaborating on the information provided in Hagee’s book.

“Not only are there four blood moons on 4/15/14, 10/8/14, 4/4/15, and 9/28/15, but the added significance is that the total solar eclipse on 3/20/15 is on the biblical calendar of Nisan 1. Nisan 1 begins the religious New Year according to the scriptures,” Biltz explained. “This date was the grand opening of Moses tabernacle in the wilderness. This is the day a great sign came and fire fell to light the burnt offering.

“So here we have a total solar eclipse beginning the religious year followed two weeks later by a total lunar eclipse/blood moon on Passover followed by the next solar eclipse (partial) on Sept 13th which just so happens to be Rosh Hashanah!” Biltz continued.

The pastor of El-Shaddai Ministries went into great detail about the significant events that have occurred on these dates in history and scripture.

“According to Judaism this is the day Adam was created and crowned God as King. This is also begins a shemittah year 7th for the land to rest. The last two shemittah years on Rosh Hashanah, there was global economic catastrophe. In 2001, the Dow fell 7 percent. In 2008, the Dow fell 7 percent. In 2015, could this be our third strike and a major collapse of the global economy?” Biltz pondered.

“The eclipse of the sun signals danger to the nations and of the moon danger to Israel, this is then followed by the total lunar eclipse/blood moon on the Feast of Tabernacles. Not only that, according to NASA, this total blood moon on 9/28/15 will be at perigee meaning it will be a super moon and seen in Jerusalem during the feast of sukkot while the Jewish people will be dwelling outside in their sukkahs looking up toward the heavens.”

“The odds of this string of events are truly astronomical!” he concluded.

Biltz had been studying prophecies that focus on the sun and moon, even going back to the book of Genesis where it states the lights in the sky would be “be for signs, and for seasons.”

“It means a signal, kind of like ‘one if by land, two if by sea.’ It’s like God wants to signal us,” he said. “The Hebrew word implies … not only is it a signal, but it’s a signal for coming or His appearing.”

Biltz noted the 6,000 years, about, since the creation of Adam.

“So we are at of the end of the six days ready to enter the seventh day, or the beginning of the 1,000 year millennium rest spoken of in Hebrews and Revelation.”

He confirmed that future events cannot be predicted exactly, but he believes there is a clear link between important historical events and these lunar eclipses.

The message, Biltz believes, is that the messianic prophecies that Jesus fulfilled 2,000 years ago, when He came the first time, happened to the very day.

Biltz explains he believes the events surrounding the second coming also will happen to the very day of the Fall Feasts.

Demanding a change to the way business is done in Washington, President Barack Obama on Thursday urged lawmakers to ignore lobbyists, bloggers, "talking heads on radio" and "the professional activists who profit from conflict."

"How business is done in this town has to change," Obama said during a press conference. "Now that the government is reopened and this threat to our economy is removed, all of us need to stop focusing on the lobbyists and the bloggers and the talking heads on radio and the professional activists who profit from conflict, and focus on what the majority of Americans sent us here to do — and that's grow this economy."

"There's a lot of noise out there, and the pressure from the extremes affect how a lot of members of Congress see the day-to-day work that's supposed to be done here," he said.

That last line reflects an argument, made by several pundits in recent weeks, that far-right pundits like Rush Limbaugh have pressured Republicans into backing down from the extremist wing of their own party.

Obama's press conference came on the day after Congress voted to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling.

New research shows many so-called experts who appeared on television making the case for U.S. strikes on Syria had undisclosed ties to military contractors. A new report by the Public Accountability Initiative identifies 22 commentators with industry ties. While they appeared on television or were quoted as experts 111 times, their links to military firms were disclosed only 13 of those times. The report focuses largely on Stephen Hadley, who served as national security adviser to President George W. Bush. During the debate on Syria, he appeared on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and Bloomberg TV. None of these stations informed viewers that Hadley currently serves as a director of the weapons manufacturer Raytheon that makes Tomahawk cruise missiles widely touted as the weapon of choice for bombing Syria. He also owns over 11,000 shares of Raytheon stock, which traded at all-time highs during the Syria debate. We speak to Kevin Connor of the Public Accountability Initiative, a co-author of the report.

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