N.J. Budget Cuts: Template or Trouble for the U.S.?

By Peter Brown

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

New Jersey Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno looks on as Gov. Chris Christie flips through the state’s budget bill before signing it into law Tuesday June 29, 2010, during a ceremony at Summit Engine Company firehouse in South River, N.J. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

A possible preview of how the nation will deal with its financial future finished playing out in Trenton, N.J., this week, and the audience of Garden State voters isn’t exactly giving the show buffo reviews.

Their reaction to the steps to deal with New Jersey’s dire financial situation is somewhat sobering for those who think the country is ready to make sacrifices to achieve financial stability.

The governor and legislature came up with a budget that reduced spending, but the voters aren’t embracing the idea of sacrifice.

Because New Jersey’s constitution requires a balanced budget, agreement between the Democratic lawmakers and GOP governor on the bottom line was a given. There is no such requirement in Washington, which is why public opinion will be so important in determining what is done.

That’s why it’s not clear, despite all the public moaning about budget deficits, whether voters are willing to pay the price required to eliminate the red ink.

The National Focus Group

It’s worth pointing out that the Garden State is one of the nation’s bluer jurisdictions — and therefore less tax adverse than many in the South, Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions. Nonetheless, fate has made New Jersey the national focus group.

With the federal deficit at a historic high, and forecasts that inaction will ruin the nation’s economy, serious Washington policy types are shopping the notion that big changes are coming after this November’s election.

Because New Jersey’s new governor was elected last November, the state had a head start dealing with the financial problems that are hitting virtually every state and the federal government. New Jersey’s financial mess was the second worse among the 50 states in terms of the deficit as a percentage of the overall budget.

To some degree, Gov. Chris Christie found himself in a situation much like President Barack Obama did when it came to the health care overhaul — convinced of the rightness of his agenda even when the public’s enthusiasm for change morphed into queasiness
once the details became known.

Mr. Christie took up a single-minded effort to rein in government spending, reduce its size and cut a tax load much higher than in most of the other states.

He vetoed a new tax on millionaires that wouldn’t have only erased a small portion of the deficit. Mr. Christie says New Jersey’s high taxes are driving residents and jobs out-of-state, and he refuses to raise any levies.

Split Down the Middle

Democrats who control the legislature and their interest group allies fought him tooth and nail. The final budget cut $820 million in aid to schools, suspended property tax rebates and cut programs for poor people and students. Still to be resolved is the size and scope of a limit on property tax increases.

A Quinnipiac poll released last week — when it was clear what the cuts would be — found New Jersey voters were split down the middle on Mr. Christie and were all over the place on his specific proposals.

Voters give Mr. Christie a 44%-43% job approval and also split evenly on whether he is a “leader” or a “bully.”

Predictably, he received overwhelming support from Republicans, overwhelming disapproval from Democrats and 50%-42% thumbs up from independents.

Although the legislature got a 62%-19% disapproval rating, its opposition to his cuts received strong support among the electorate. By double-digits, voters told Quinnipiac, they oppose the governor’s plans to layoff 1,300 state workers, close state psychiatric institutions, to cut $820 million in aid to public schools and to reduce aid to cities and towns. They did voice strong support for limiting property tax increases, a key part of Mr. Christie’s plan.

The unknown is how the voters of New Jersey will feel once the new budget takes effect. If they decide they like a smaller government, that will give ammunition to those who say it’s time for a revolution in Washington, D.C.

But a public revolt in New Jersey could have the opposite effect, making it more difficult for Congress and the president to summon the political courage necessary to right the nation’s fiscal course.

Comments (5 of 10)

I honestly do not understand either of your responses. Maybe I was not clear.

1. I support Christie and what he is doing.

2. Taxes in NJ are too high and unions are close to bankrupting NJ.

3. I generally do not support a Republican office holder.

4. I don't even know what this means: "Your like the guy that gives the guy with the sign money when leaving Wal-Mart." What?

5. Another: “You obviously don’t have a backbone. You want to position yourself as this unique creature that is confused about his condition but heaven forbid let people think you are a Rush, Hannity follower. Get a life. Don’t get a life and stay in NJ. Governor Christie doesn’t need you, he has real people that can stand up for what they believe.” Again, what?? Get a life? Don’t get a life? What? No backbone? What?

6. My point about Rush, Hannity, etc: in the case of lower taxes, I agree with these guys. I do not agree with them when they say the US will become Marxist, that everything Obama does is wrong, etc. Hannity is like a traffic accident for me, I almost need to listen to the guy everyday as I drive home.......mainly because I need to know if he is going to talk about the same issue over and over and over. It's amazing. Do I need to subscribe to everything he says in order to be a "good American"? My take on them is that they have their audience, are pretty smart guys and might be right about all this stuff. I just hate all the negative stuff.....we're going bankrupt, our children are screwed, Obama is a Marxist. I mean come on. AND I hate the negative stuff coming from the left as well.

7. Anywho, I did not mean to make this political. I just wanted to point out that in this case, a mostly "Democratic" kind of guy was agreeing with what my Republican governor was doing. That's all.

5:53 am July 12, 2010

Andrew wrote :

Fantastic, finally some progress in NJ for the first time in 30 years, other than making every cop and teacher multi-millionaires equivalent value of their pensions. Gov. Christie deserves praise for finally having the guts to stand up to the glutton public employees' unions. Next he should put them on same par with private industry and convert the pensions-system into 401-Ks (horrors, then they'd not get guaranteed gains in long-term periods of stock market declines by gouging the public by higher taxes as McGreevy and Corzine did).

Speaking of McGreevy, he really should be jailed for having gotten graft from the NJ public spending trough for his Gay Lover.

12:34 am July 4, 2010

Rich wrote :

Mark, why do you pretend to not realize that you are getting taken by the state of NJ so that politicians can give your money away in exchange for votes? If you are asking the question in the first place, you probably already know that something is wrong. Why do you feel you are "lucky" to be making what you do? Unless you are the recipient of some form of nepotism, you probably worked hard and used judgement in obtaining your position. Why do you feel the need to insult Rush, Hannity, and "the rest"? I am willing to bet that you have not even listened to them much at all.
If you want to allow yourself to be a punching bag for Democrats who want to use your money to buy themselves votes, then help yourself.

1:59 pm July 1, 2010

Anonymous wrote :

Mark,
I guess the question is, do you ever think? What do you think about your taxes? Do you think getting reamed by the schools and the teachers union is to your benefit? Do kids get a good education in NJ? Your like the guy that gives the guy with the sign money when leaving WalMart.
You obviously don't have a backbone. You want to position yourself as this unique creature that is confused about his condition but heaven forbid let people think you are a Rush, Hannity follower. Get a life. Don't get a life and stay in NJ. Governor Christie doesn't need you, he has real people that can stand up for what they believe.

4:30 pm June 30, 2010

@Mark wrote :

Your property taxes are high. Ouch. How much do you pay in HOA fees per month?

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Capital Journal is WSJ.com’s unique site for analysis of the political and policy maneuvering in Washington in the era of Barack Obama. It features the Capital Journal columns and occasional other postings by executive Washington editor Gerald F. Seib, and will house Political Wisdom, the Journal’s daily aggregation of the smartest political analysis from around the Internet. Also look for regular columns by Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and occasional contributions from others.