Will Historic Win Lead Historic Bull Run Ahead?

May 24, 2019 | 16:16 PM IST

May 24, 2019 | 16:16 PM IST

Our Analysis

Exit polls indicating the clean sweep for Congress and easy Win for BJP led NDA government cherished investor sentiments. Indias trust over the NDA government was clearly visible on the very first day of this week where markets galloped almost by 900 points initially. The miraculous run in the markets marked its biggest single-day gain of a decade and created a new history for the investors and markets as well. BankNifty which is the backbone of this rally was seen on a sprint during the week. On the back of the same, Nifty and Sensex climbed its fresh all-time high of 12000 and 40000 respectively. However, this historic cannonball run braked by the bears on the expiry day by profit bookings which led markets to end on the muted note. Modi led BJPs historic 300 seat win was compensated by markets with a swing of 1300 points.

On the weekend bulls roared back again with a rally of 500+ points on Sensex. However, post-election results the investor sentiments again tied to the key concerns like economic slowdown, liquidity issues, and policy reforms. The clear win of Modi led government has enlightened the hopes of the bold decision on the economic revivals, as Modi 2.0 first 100-day plan starts to take a shape owing to which sector-specific buying have already kicked off this weekend. The upcoming period would create a strong foundation for the next bull run, so expect short term downtrends too. Markets have stretched to its all-time highs and there may be some corrections to lead the march ahead. Infrastructure, cement and auto sector is expected to see a revival in the coming days so be ready to pick the best stocks for you to benefit from Modis reign.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, In the anticipation of Phir Ek Bar Modi Sarkar, the Indian share market has marked its biggest single-day gain of a decade since Jan 25, 2009. Nifty tasted its all-time closing high at 11828.25 up 4.45 percent whereas Sensex closed at 39352.67. Highly traded BankNifty rallied to its all-time high and closed at 30,759.70.

2) On Tuesday, After a two day's of phenomenal run by bulls, the Indian share market witnessed the profit booking in the second half of today's trade closing the index in negative territory. the Sensex decline by 382.87 points at 38969.80, while Nifty drop by 119.20 points at 11709.10. The broader market followed the same pattern with Mid & Small-Cap down nearly 1 percent.

3) On Wednesday, the Indian benchmark indices were seen hovering in the same range closed the day with clueless. The Sensex grew by 140.41 points at 39110.21, while Nifty up by 28.80 points at 11737.90. however, the banks continued to outperform the market, with Indusland Bank leading the way followed by Icici & sbi bank. On the sectoral front, bank nifty, Infra & Energy were on the green side, On the other hand, FMCG, Media & IT closed in the red.

4) On Thursday, The remarkable sprint of the last three days ended in a red zone. The sell on news phenomena was playing its role perfectly, where indices lost their gains to profit bookings. Modi tsunami was visible in the election results which turned the game for investors. HDFCBK & ITC kept the market under pressure. The Sensex declined by 298.82 points at 38811.39, while Nifty drop by 55.40 points at 11682.50. The sectors who contributed to the most were the Media, Infra & reality.

5) On Friday, Indian equity benchmarks opened higher in todays trade, led by the gains in HDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank, and Reliance Industries Ltd.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- On the global front, the Us market was trumped by volatility reacting to the news flow regarding government blacklisting the Chinese Huawei company, escalation of the trade talk indicating the deal going nowhere. additional to that the minute of monetary policy indicated the patient approach.

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap had seen trading mixed with gain in selected sectors such as Infra, Reality, Cement, NBFC amid the clear win of BJP.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of KEI IND surged nearly 22 percent. the company after The cable manufacturer reported a 21 percent jump in net profit in the quarter ended March 2019 at Rs 60 crore, compared to Rs 49.5 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue of the company grew by 17.7 percent at Rs 1,211.4 crore versus Rs 1,029.3 YoY.

Shares of Jubilant Lifesciences dropped more than 13 percent in a week after The company reported a net loss of Rs100.65cr in Q4FY19 on account of a one-time loan settlement with International Finance Corporation (IFC). The company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs152.40cr in the year-ago period.

Key Market Drivers

Oil prices jumped as much as 1 percent on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies.

Forex reserves recorded up by $1.36 bn to $420.05 bn

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board on Tuesday stated that they will not be extending a credit line to struggling NBFCs as it felt that there was no liquidity issue but there were solvency concerns in some of the large entities

Morgan Stanley expects Brent to hit $75-80 range in H2CY2019

NSE gets partial relief from Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT).

Sebi proposes a review of buyback norms for companies with NBFC, HFC as subsidiaries

RBI may not increase the age limit for bank CEOs over 70 years: Report

Event Watch

International:

Japan PPI Services YoY

US Wholesale Inv MoM

Japan Industrial Prod. YoY

The US-China trade talk

Crude Movement

Domestic:

India GDP YoY

India GVA YoY

India Fiscal Deficit

INR Price

Q4FY2019 Earning

Stocks To Watch

Modi 2.0 Rally Ends On Profit-Booking Note, Nifty below 11,700

The hope of Modi 2.0 taking shape led markets to fly high in the initial trades today. The benchmark indices have made an all-time high with Sensex up by 539.05 points or 1.38% at 39649.26, and the Nifty up 156.00 points or 1.33% at 11893.90. On the sectoral front, all the major indices were trading in green led by banks, auto, energy, infra, metal, IT and pharma. The major takeaway during the session was the India VIX. The fear-gauge dropped more than 18 percent trading at 22 marks.

In the afternoon session, the benchmark indices galloped to the all-new high, where Sensex climbed to milestone figure of 40,000 and Nifty crossing 12000. The broader market has taken a part in the rally with Mid & Small-Cap up by 1 percent. Among sector, Except IT all other sectors were trading in Green led by Banking, Infra & Energy.

The remarkable sprint of the last three days ended in a red zone. The sell on news phenomena was playing its role perfectly, where indices lost their gains to profit bookings. Modi tsunami was visible in the election results which turned the game for investors. HDFCBK & ITC kept the market under pressure. The Sensex was down 298.82 points at 38811.39, while Nifty was down 55.40 points at 11682.50. The sectors who contributed to the most were the Media, Infra & reality. On the broader view, the Mid & Small-cap followed the benchmark indices and closed with the loss of 0.17 & 0.20 percent.

Though Modi reign is going to continue ahead, market participants would now be keen to know the future course of action economic recovery, a solution to the liquidity situation, Union budget, the progress of monsoon and, earnings trajectory.

Top Gainers

ADANIPORT by 5.84% to Rs 408.50 ,ZEEL by 5.55% to Rs 361.20,INDUSINDBK by 5.20% to Rs 1,597.90,GRASIM by 3.46% to Rs 887.00, CIPLA by 2.21% to Rs 565.20.

Top Losers

VEDL By -5.59% to Rs 157.00, EICHERMOT by -4.19% to Rs 20,335.50, ITC by -3.80% to Rs 288.35, HINDALCO by -3.18% to Rs 191.70.,BAJAJFINSV by -2.60% to Rs. 8,008.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ADANIPORT is the top gainer in today's market session, The company is planning its first container terminal outside India in Myanmar at an estimated cost of USD 290 million

VEDL is the top loser in today's market over the concern of the Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia.

Sebi proposes a review of buyback norms for companies with NBFC, HFC as subsidiaries

RBI may not increase the age limit for bank CEOs over 70 years: Report

Stocks To Watch

ICICIBANK is on the upside while ITC is on the downside.

ICICIBANK is currently quoting at Rs.411.50 up by Rs 6.15 or 1.52% from its previous closing of Rs.405.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.427.95 on 23-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.256.50 on 16-JUL-2018. The stock has been trading strong from quite a time and had likely to continue its momentum going ahead.

ITC is currently quoting at Rs.288.35 down by Rs.-11.40 or -3.80% from its previous closing of Rs.299.75 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 322.95 on 03-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 259.00 on 28-JUN-2018. The stock has witnessed selling pressure in throughout trading session and likely to remain so.

A Muted day ahead of Election result

A day before the election counting starts the Indian share market had opened on a muted note. The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were trading at 39,086.21 & 11,727.95. Among the sectors, IT, metal, FMCG and auto indices were trading with marginal loss, while energy, infra, and pharma were trading higher. DHFL was the eyecatcher in the early trade. Reacting to the corporate announcement regarding fresh public deposits and renewals of existing deposits, the stock took a beating of more than 12 percent in the initial trade

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading flat with no major move in any of the direction. The Sensex was 101.49 points higher at 39071.29, While Nifty was trading at 11726.65. The disappointment came from the broader market with Mid-cap down by 0.50 percent. However the sectorial contributor in the nifty was the energy, reality & Infra While, media & reality were trading in negative.

In today's trade, the Indian benchmark indices were seen hovering in the same range closed the day with clueless. The Sensex was up 140.41 points at 39110.21, while Nifty was up 28.80 points at 11737.90. however, the banks continued to outperform the market, with Indusland Bank leading the way followed by Icici & sbi bank. On the sectoral front, bank nifty, Infra & Energy were on the green side, On the other hand, FMCG, Media & IT closed in the red. The turnaround was held in a broader market which was trading in red but somehow managed to recover with Mid & small-cap closing at -0.07 & 0.46 percent change. On the weekly expiry day, the Indian share market most probably will track the vote counting and according to that the action would take place, So you can definitely expect some wild moves from the stocks and the indices with high volatility to remain

Top Gainers

INDUSINDBK by 5.54% to Rs 1,528.00 ,SUNPHARMA by 3.46% to Rs 423.00,BAJAJ-AUTO by 2.51% to Rs 3,053.95,BPCL by 2.35% to Rs 383.25, EICHERMOT by 1.83% to Rs 21,285.00.

Top Losers

TECHM By -2.98% to Rs 750.00, IBULHSGFIN by -2.94% to Rs 784.00, INFRATEL by -2.52% to Rs 269.15, YEASBANK by -1.49% to Rs 138.90.,ZEEL by -1.35% to Rs. 343.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

INDUSINDBK is the top gainer in today's market session, After posting the Q4FY2019 result the stock witnessed a hefty buying interest.

TECHM is the top loser in today's market after the company posted a disappointing result in Q4 FY2019 the witnessed the selling pressure.

Key Market News

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board on Tuesday suggested not extending a credit line to struggling non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) because it felt there was no systemic liquidity issue but there were solvency concerns in some large entities

INDUSINDBK is currently quoting at Rs.1,528.00 up by Rs 80.25 or 5.54% from its previous closing of Rs.1,447.75 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.2,038.00 on 03-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,333.15 on 31-OCT-2018. The stock after posting the result witnessed the good buying interest and likely to remain so in coming days.

ZEEL is currently quoting at Rs.343.00 down by Rs.-4.70 or -1.35% from its previous closing of Rs.347.70 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 578.25 on 28-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 288.30 on 25-JAN-2019. The stock is technically weak and likely to remain the same in coming sessions.

The Indian share market after a strong close on the previous trading session has opened on the positive note. The Sensex was up 104.58 points at 39457.25, while Nifty was up 28.80 points at 11857.10. Among the sectors, except IT all other sectoral indices were trading higher led by pharma, bank, metal, energy, and FMCG. The heavyweight HDFC Twins & Reliance were the top performer in early trade. However, The global sentiment is seemed negative with the US government blacklisting the Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies for doing business, Capping the positive momentum for the D-street.

The benchmark Indices after hitting a new high were trading flat to positive. The Strenght had continued to come from the Reliance which was up 2.30 percent followed by the HDFC twins, which kept the indices higher. In the afternoon session, the Sensex was trading at 39,420.99 higher by 68.32 points, While Nifty was up by 11.45 points at 11,839.70. On the sectoral front, Media, Auto & Infra were trading in red, On the other hand, Pharma, FMCG was trading strong. Comparing to the benchmark indices the broader market were trading weak, Mid & Small-cap were down by 0.35 percent.

After a two day's of phenomenal run by bulls, the Indian share market witnessed the profit booking in the second half of today's trade closing the index in negative territory. the Sensex was down 382.87 points at 38969.80, while Nifty was down 119.20 points at 11709.10. The broader market followed the same pattern with Mid & Small-Cap down nearly 1 percent. On the sectoral front, All the sectors index has closed in red led by Auto, Media & Metal. Going ahead, The pre-election rally is likely to continues if the election verdict comes in tandem with exit polls where quality mid & small caps is expected outperform the Indian share market.

Top Gainers

DRREDDY by 2.92% to Rs 2,665.00 ,INFRATEL by 2.10% to Rs 275.20,TITAN by 1.34% to Rs 1,248.10,BRITANNIA by 1.26% to Rs 2,836.60, RELIANCE by 1.06% to Rs 1,339.90.

Top Losers

TATAMOTORS By -6.60% to Rs 177.60, ZEEL by -4.33% to Rs 346.80, BPCL by -4.20% to Rs 375.35, ADANIPORTS by -3.39% to Rs 386.55.,INDUSINDBK by -3.38% to Rs. 1,444.15.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

DRREDDY is the top gainer in today's market session, The companys Bachupally FTO-3 unit gets clearance from the German body.

TATAMOTORS is the top loser in today's market after the company posted an disappointing result in Q4 FY2019

Third party motor insurance premium to get pricier as IRDAI revises rate card.

Stocks To Watch

RELIANCE is on the upside while ZEEL is on the downside.

RELIANCE is currently quoting at Rs.1,339.90 up by Rs 14.00 or 1.06% from its previous closing of Rs.1,325.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,417.50 on 03-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.906.60 on 30-MAY-2018.The stock has been trading strong from a couple of days and likely to remain in focus in coming days.

ZEEL is currently quoting at Rs.346.80 down by Rs.-15.70 or -4.33% from its previous closing of Rs.362.50 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 578.25 on 28-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 288.30 on 25-JAN-2019. The stock is technically weak and likely to remain the same in coming sessions.

Exit Polls Leads a Cannonball Run, Nifty Closes Near To Its Peak

Exit polls projecting Modi reign to continue with a comfortable win injected the sense of euphoria to the Indian market. In the opening session, Sensex galloped by 811 points or 2.14% at 38741.77. Whereas Nifty spiked up by 242.10 points or 2.12% at 11649.30. On the sectoral front, Except IT all other sectoral indices like banking, auto, energy, infra, and FMCG have entered the party by trading in the green zone.

The momentum created by the initial gap up opening was seen well maintained in the afternoon sessions too. The Sensex was up 956.57 points at 38,887.34 and Nifty was trading at 11685.80. The Broader market has also enjoyed a rally where Mid & Small Cap indices were up by more than 3.50 percent. On the sectoral front, All the sector were trading in green led by Energy, Infra, Reality & Banks.

In the anticipation of Phir Ek Bar Modi Sarkar, the Indian share market has marked its biggest single-day gain of a decade since Jan 25, 2009. Nifty had closed just at a kissing distance of its all-time high of 11856. However, Nifty tasted its all-time closing high at 11828.25 up 4.45 percent whereas Sensex closed at 39352.67. Highly traded BankNifty rallied to its all-time high and closed at 30,759.70. The magical run was largely supported by Index heavyweights Reliance, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank which contributed 189.86, 150.45 and 110 21 basis points to the index gains. L&T and SBI were the other followers which contributed 106.78 points and 106.78 points to the index gains. Following the benchmark Indices, the broader market Mid & Small-Cap closed with the gain of more than 4 percent.

One most important takeaway from today was, easing off the IndiaVIX. India Vix closed at 23.67 down by more than 15 percent. The phenomena suggest the lower volatility which is beneficial for the markets.

After a mindblasting upward march of the Indian markets, dont expect to be like this ahead. With a recent two day rally, where nifty climbed by more 560 points shows that markets have factored the exit polls to some extent now. So, the market may trade with the muted gains ahead. Poor earnings growth, lower liquidity, slowing economy and global challenges may play a role during the time. However, we see the possibility of sector-specific rally ahead where the infrastructure, cement, banking ranks among the first three.

Top Gainers

ADANIPORT by 10.99% to Rs 407.45 ,IBULHSGFIN by 10.62% to Rs 800.00,INDUSINDBK by 8.77% to Rs 1,494.00,SBIN by 8.32% to Rs 345.80, TATAMOTORS by 7.15% to Rs 189.50.

Top Losers

DRREDDY By -5.50% to Rs 2,594.00, ZEEL by -3.00% to Rs 361.00, BAJAJ-AUTO by -0.82% to Rs 3,015.00, TECHM by -0.76% to Rs 778.90., INFY by -0.36% to Rs. 721.30.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ADANIPORT is the top gainer in today's market session, The overall Adani Group was witnessing the buying interest in todays session tracking the Exit Poll outcome.

DRREDDY is the top loser in today's market after the company reported a disappointing margin in the January-March quarter

Key Market News

Oil prices jumped as much as 1 percent on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. is on the upside while BirlaCable is on the downside.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. is currently quoting at Rs.1,454.00 up by Rs 92.10 or 6.76% from its previous closing of Rs.1,361.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,459.70 on 21-Dec-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,182.50 on 23-Oct-2018. The stock had given a strong closing in todays session and likely to trade strong in coming days.

BirlaCable is currently quoting at Rs.107.00 down by Rs.-15.70 or -12.80% from its previous closing of Rs.122.70 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 229.40 on 22-Nov-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 66.60 on 22-May-2018. The stock has been continuously trading in the weak note and likely to trade in downtrend going ahead.

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At Niveza India Pvt Ltd., we all come to work everyday to take the challenges of stock market head on and to change people's
perception that stock market investment is like a gamble. Over the years, we have built our profile as a company which has brought
optimum value to our subscribers through our well-researched stock recommendations. We don't promise you unrealistic returns,
we don't chase intraday or F&O dreams. We believe in the ideals of value & growth investment; these values are reflected in our
products. We are always marching ahead with the goal to better ourselves.

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