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Topic: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge) (Read 7825 times)

Good afternoon.After some years (not many) as a player at the casino (land and internet) and after a lot that made me doubt the validity and fairness of land casinos (not to mention the internet ones *&^%$)...And after listening to views from some old players for example that after thousands of balls, the numbers and the frequency of their occurrence balances out... And after all this talk about the house edge...

I decided to do an experiment by my own.This experiment aims to find out what is the REAL HOUSE EDGE in casinos. When I say real house edge, of course I mean to play regularly and cold with my own money. And not just record spins without playing.Believe me, there is a difference.And if you don't believe me, you have to do the same test yourself.

So far I have played/bet 420 spins (seven viosits, 60 spins per visit) playing consistenly 16 or 15 numbers and recording the returns of each day and the average returns and losses.

I will post the results of the previous 7 casino visits in the mext posts and then I will continue to add the results of each new visit and calculate the total averages.

The larger the sample the more objective the result will be.(Of course do not expect me to play, and record 1,000,000 spins ..)But so far the 420 spins are a much better sample than 60.

If you apply 1 / 37 (2.7%), then yes, it feels unimportant in relation to the 30 or 40% house edge of other casino games (slot machines). On the other hand, yes 2.7% can make a profit for the casino. but the biggest the house edge the better for the casino. And besides, IF it is proved that the real figure is far from the 2.7 then it means that there is no hope ever for the player to be a winner .. for obvious reasons ...

The research will go on. Though obviously I do not go to the casino every day. (As I mentioned above, every day I'm going to record 60 spins and will add them to the total stats.)

Very interesting experiment. I do not think I've seen something similar anywhere.I agree that the sample is small. If you could increase to 100 balls per visit would be helpful.

And bravo to discipline yourself. One needs great discipline to play throughout your visits consistently the same system and to stop at a predetermined number of spins.

But if the actual "house edge" is OVER 2.7%, what would be the explanation? Even if we assume that something "strange" can happen (the dealer or the guys watching the game from above) I do not think that they would ruin a player that plays five streets or four carres, but someone who plays heavily on straight up numbers.

Very interesting experiment - continue it please continue!

Also, because the eighth day was very unfortunate, I propose to continue the ninth day with the same streets, to see if it will make a correction.

But if the actual "house edge" is OVER 2.7%, what would be the explanation? Even if we assume that something "strange" can happen (the dealer or the guys watching the game from above) I do not think that they would ruin a player that plays five streets or four carres, but someone who plays heavily on straight up numbers.

Kav,If the game is rigged, they would certainly not distinguish between those who bet a lot with those who bet less. For example, my bets in total, in these 8 days, are 10.500 € (turnover) and while I should be minus around 300 €, is more than -1600...Imagine that playing straight up numbers!

And bravo to discipline yourself. One needs great discipline to play throughout your visits consistently the same system and to stop at a predetermined number of spins.

My friend, I always played disciplined, but not so disciplined.I must admit, that I reached this point because I got sick of all my systems finally losing and breaking for so many years. For unexplained reasons, of course... so I now try to find an explanation.

Also, because the eighth day was very unfortunate, I propose to continue the ninth day with the same streets, to see if it will make a correction.

Now I do not know if the next time I play exactly the same streets.This is because as I write this, I no longer believe in the influence of previous spins.(Of course this does not mean that I will play and the opposing streets)

On two recent days the rates of losses were smaller than average.However, as known (so far) -13.22% is far worse from the (theoretical) -2.7%.So when various people tell us that over time it is impossible for any system and method of roulette play to change the-2.7% to be even +1%, and that's the sole reason we lose... When a casino employee told me the words .. 'Mathematics is absolute, whatever you do the -1/37 will prevail. The more you'll bet, the more you'll lose '

Let us explain how the 'absolute' -2,7% proves to be so far - 13% ? If -2.7% is impossible to become +1%, then how has it become -13%?!

I agree mostly with what you wrote.The thing is, they tell us the house edge is -2,7% and that's why we lose.I always had an suspicion this is not the case and casinos somehow :'( manage to make the edge in favor of them more than just 2,7%. That's why I started this experiment. To see if the house edge is the "fair" 2,7% or if it is (like I suspect) even more.

So far it proves to be MUCH more than just 2,7%.And yes, I know the sample is yet too small, but...

I do not record my profits. My experiment has nothing to do with bets or money. I record the returns in relation to the total turnover. And only that.

This experiment is not a way to make money, it is not a bet selection method. I just point out my bets FYI (for your interest) only.

It is a test to see if my returns are truly 97,3% of my total turnover (total wagered money) as it should be. It is a test to see how close or apart is the theoretical result to the actual, real life result.

This is not about the theoretical house edge. It is about the REAL LIFE house edge.

To give you an example: if a wheel is rigged, if the casino cheats you how would you know?! You would know if you find out that in the... "long run" your returns are much lower than the theoretically expected returns (97,3% in European roulette). That's what I test. See it as test if the casinos cheat us if you like...