Prediction: Half of all US colleges will be bankrupt in less than 10 years
by Aubree Poole | Nov 20, 2017, 12:27 PM

A Harvard business professor predicts that half of the colleges in the United States will be bankrupt within the next nine years.

Professor Clayton Christensen, known for his theory of “disruptive innovation” and his book The Innovator’s Dilemma, recently released a publication entitled The Innovative University. In this new book, Christensen and his co-author Henry Eyring analyze the current state of American universities. Their conclusion is that online education is far more cost-effective for students and as the demand for online courses increases, actual attendance at traditional universities will decrease.

This is a sobering prediction for educators across the country.

At the Innovation + Disruption in Higher Education symposium in May, Christensen offered a prediction, saying, “50 percent of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the U.S. will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years."

Recently, Christensen moved up the timeline. At Salesforce.org's Higher Education Summit, he told the 1,500 attendees, "If you're asking whether the providers get disrupted within a decade — I might bet that it takes nine years rather than 10."

Christensen is not alone in his gloomy outlook on traditional colleges. For years, the Department of Education has been predicting college closures to triple, and it appears as though such predictions are beginning to become reality.

The low cost and high demand for online courses and resources are proving difficult for traditional colleges and universities to keep up. Despite the fact that traditional colleges may not be able to compete with the demand for online education, Christensen encourages educators to keep the right perspective.

"Maybe the most important thing that we add value to our students is the ability to change their lives,” he reminds industry leaders.

“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell

As our resident higher education guy, I would say that other than a few institutions bereft of financial acumen, U.S. colleges and universities aren't going away any time soon. Clayton Christensen is very good at self-promotion, but to put it mildly, he's something of an outlier when it comes to these sorts of predictions.

Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

As our resident higher education guy, I would say that other than a few institutions bereft of financial acumen, U.S. colleges and universities aren't going away any time soon. Clayton Christensen is very good at self-promotion, but to put it mildly, he's something of an outlier when it comes to these sorts of predictions.

I don't know Steve. If I want to say take a programming course. I can go to the local community college and spend a grand to pay for it. Or I can go to a site like Khan academy and take it for free.

But I have a question for you How much quality difference do you think there is between an online course and an in class course on average? Say % wise

“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell

As our resident higher education guy, I would say that other than a few institutions bereft of financial acumen, U.S. colleges and universities aren't going away any time soon. Clayton Christensen is very good at self-promotion, but to put it mildly, he's something of an outlier when it comes to these sorts of predictions.

I don't know Steve. If I want to say take a programming course. I can go to the local community college and spend a grand to pay for it. Or I can go to a site like Khan academy and take it for free.

That's been true for a while now. Why aren't community colleges empty? Moreover, why are they among the ones embracing distance learning the most effectively? Independent study simply isn't everyone's cup of tea.

But I have a question for you How much quality difference do you think there is between an online course and an in class course on average? Say % wise

Well, the problem with "on average" here is that the level of quality varies so widely, both in classroom-based instruction and distance learning, that it usually makes more sense to compare specific courses. There are good and bad courses of any mode of instruction.

However, as a mode of instruction, it's pretty well established that there is no significant difference in outcomes between distance learning and instructor-led education.

Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

As our resident higher education guy, I would say that other than a few institutions bereft of financial acumen, U.S. colleges and universities aren't going away any time soon. Clayton Christensen is very good at self-promotion, but to put it mildly, he's something of an outlier when it comes to these sorts of predictions.

I don't know Steve. If I want to say take a programming course. I can go to the local community college and spend a grand to pay for it. Or I can go to a site like Khan academy and take it for free.

That's been true for a while now. Why aren't community colleges empty? Moreover, why are they among the ones embracing distance learning the most effectively? Independent study simply isn't everyone's cup of tea.

Yes I realize that. It is all about the piece of paper acquired at the end of the course.

But I have a question for you How much quality difference do you think there is between an online course and an in class course on average? Say % wise

Well, the problem with "on average" here is that the level of quality varies so widely, both in classroom-based instruction and distance learning, that it usually makes more sense to compare specific courses. There are good and bad courses of any mode of instruction.

However, as a mode of instruction, it's pretty well established that there is no significant difference in outcomes between distance learning and instructor-led education.

I can see that even though it is true for different reasons. There is a great deal of difference between instructors/Professors in the quality of their teaching. I imagine it is harder to ask questions during online lectures Particularly recorded ones. On the other hand the quality of the instructors online should on average be higher.

“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell