Blog Archives

Updated: May 11th 2018

I’m feeling a bit bittersweet today. After months of research, statistical analysis and film watching this will be my last post about the 2018 rookie class. You’ll be in capable hands with the rest of our RSO writing crew but I can’t help but feel sad about losing “my guys.” I’m looking at you Anthony Miller and Rashaad Penny. I had been a casual college football writer for years, and a fan for much longer, but the 2018 class was the first that I went truly deep on. Alas, I will probably feel the same about the 2019 class this time next year. Speaking of the 2019 class, expect to see content rolling out starting in June. I have compiled a watch list of 150 players from the FBS to Division III. I will release conference previews in the Summer, along with a way-too-early mock draft. I will also unveil a Madden-like grading system I devised as a way to quantitatively compare players across levels and positions. Before all of that though, let’s take one last look at my 2018 rookie rankings. These were updated after the NFL Draft and I have also included a write-up about some noteworthy players. Enjoy!

#3 – Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

I have vacillated on Chubb’s ranking more than anybody else at the top of my rankings. Earlier in the year I had Chubb and Derrius Guice alternating as my RB2/RB3. Immediately after the draft I bumped Chubb down to RB4 (1.04), behind Ronald Jones, due to concerns about playing on a poor Browns team that has a crowded backfield. The more I thought about it though, I decided I’d rather have Chubb because I think he’s a better player and will earn ample opportunity early enough in his career to warrant the 1.03 pick.

#5 – Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks

It was hard not to have Penny rocket up my rankings after he went 27th overall to the Seahawks. It felt like a confirmation of everything I saw and loved during the 2017 season. I tempered my excitement though for two reasons. First, Penny’s struggles as a pass protector are well known and I fear this could limit his touches to start his career. Second, the Seahawks have a weak offensive line (ranked 27th by PFF after 2017) that will test even Penny’s elite evasion. I was also building some return game work into Penny’s valuation but now that he’s a first round draft pick I doubt there’s any chance he gets to return kicks.

#6 – Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons
#7 – DJ Moore, WR, Panthers

I’m sticking to my guns here. I have had Ridley as my WR1 throughout the season and I still don’t feel he has done anything to change that for me. Moore certainly impressed at the combine more so than Ridley but it’s not like Ridley looked like Orlando Brown out there. Moore was a victim of a poor passing game at Maryland, but you could say the same about Ridley who was rarely featured. Moore will get a lot of early targets as the lead receiver in Carolina but I’d rather have Ridley’s fit in Atlanta with a top passing offense. Julio Jones will dictate coverage which should leave Ridley and his superb separation and route running skills wide open.

#20 – Bradley Chubb, DE, Broncos
#21 – Josh Rosen, QB, Cardinals

Chubb and Rosen come in as the first of their position in my rankings. IDP and QBs are always tough to rank because they are so heavily dependent on league settings and scoring. In general, for a typical RSO IDP league, I think that taking your first IDP near the second turn is a good bet; same with quarterbacks in a 1QB league. If you’re in a league featuring high IDP scoring or in a Superflex or 2QB league, you’ll need to push these guys higher by about a round. Similarly to Ridley, Chubb joins a unit where he won’t be the focus and can prosper. I’d be buying shares of the Broncos in team defense leagues, boy are they going to rack up the sacks. Rosen was the fourth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but I think he should be the first off the board in your fantasy draft because he has the best combination of short-term opportunity and supporting cast in my opinion. Darnold and Allen may see the field just as soon but they won’t be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson and Christian Kirk. Mayfield is the wildcard if he beats out Tyrod Taylor, who the Browns spent a 3rd round pick on in a trade, because the Browns skill position players look intriguing if they all stay healthy and out of trouble.

#39 – Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Giants

I have a man crush on Lorenzo Carter. He’s a quick and lanky edge rusher who also showed the ability to drop into coverage late in the season. He’ll probably start as a situational pass rusher but the Giants will soon find that they found a gem in Carter. If you’re playing in an IDP league you can probably get Carter later than 39th overall but I wouldn’t chance it. Take him in the third round, stash him on your bench and be the envy of your league this time next year.

#45 – Ito Smith, RB, Falcons

Like Carter, Smith is a sneaky late round pick to stash on your bench. He’ll be lucky to find 50 touches in 2018 behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but once Coleman leaves in free agency, Smith will fall into a fruitful timeshare. Smith ran for 1,100+ yards each of the last three years while catching 40+ passes. Smith is strong and thick with powerful leg drive. I rated him as a B+ blocker in his class so despite his short stature he isn’t a liability in pass protection. Smith will be the type of back who earns 75% of his fantasy production in the last two minutes of each half. He’ll come on the field for his mix of receiving and protection and stay on the field while the team runs the hurry-up.

I’m not very high on either of these Packer receivers but one of them is going to emerge, it’s just a matter of which one does. There were rumors that St. Brown fell in the draft because of his “diva” personality which shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anybody who has done any research about his family. That pedigree and promise is what garnered St. Brown buzz the last two years – it certainly wasn’t his on-the-field production. Moore is shorter, lighter and slower but put up two solid seasons at Mizzou in 2016 and 2017 (60+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs). I wouldn’t recommend drafting either player, you’re better off waiting to see which one hits and then scramble to the waiver wire, but if I had to pick I would go with St. Brown for his superior physical attributes.

#50 – Mason Rudolph, QB, Steelers

I like Rudolph as a speculative third round pick in Superflex and 2QB leagues. While Ben Roethlisberger has been squawking about the Rudolph pick, let’s not forget that just a year ago he was considering retirement. I don’t think it’s a mistake that the Steelers brass decided to draft James Washington and then pair him with his college quarterback. There’s also a chance that Rudolph gets playing time in the short-term due to an injury to Big Ben. Ben has only played a full 16 game season three times in his 14 year career. If you happen to get two games out of Rudolph in 2018 when your own starter is hurt or on bye you’ll already be ahead of the game value-wise.

#64 – Josh Sweat, DE, Eagles

Josh Sweat is another IDP sleeper of mine. Sweat may not get much opportunity early in his career but he had first round talent and physicals but was available later due to his injury history. The stories about his knee injury are pretty gnarly so I would not recommend spending much draft capital on him but if you’re in a deep IDP league and looking for a long shot, he’s your guy.

#80 – Richie James, WR, 49ers

So you’re saying there’s a chance? The 49ers offense is an enigma at the moment. As a Jimmy G owner, I’m excited for what he showed late last year but I am concerned about who he’ll be targeting this year. Pierre Garcon will be back from injury but he’s old. Marquise Goodwin is back too but he’s nothing more than a complementary player in my opinion. The door is open for somebody to emerge and Richie James has as much of a chance as anybody else on the roster. James had two uber productive seasons to start his career: 107-1,334-8 and 105-1,625-12. He lost most of 2017 to injury but is healthy now and reports are that he played well at the team’s first mini camp. You’d have to be in a pretty deep league to consider drafting James but once you get past WR15 it’s a crap shoot anyway.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Updated: April 24th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning. Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process. You can then move on to Part III and then to Part II before continuing below. An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

#16 – Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Ravens have been desperate for a WR1 for what feels like a decade. Sadly, I don’t think free agent signing Michael Crabtree is the answer nor are there are any true standout WR prospects in the class. Despite my criticism, I believe that Ridley is the best of the bunch. Aside from a solid 40 yard dash, Ridley mostly hurt his stock at the combine. I previously had him as a Top 10 player but have dropped him because of lingering doubts. Ridley is quick, shows good hands and is an excellent route runner. When I watch him on film he just pops, damn the stats or the combine results. I’m less convinced about his chance to become a team’s WR1 now than I was a year ago but I still think he can be a productive NFL receiver.

#15 – Cardinals – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Denzel Ward at #15 is an absolute steal. In real life, I believe Ward will go higher because some team will either trade their pick to a team looking for a corner or some team will just go BPA and snag him. He very likely could go a spot earlier to Green Bay but instead I have him falling to the Cardinals. Unfortunately for the Cards, none of the top quarterbacks have made it this far so they’ll be the ones to go BPA and take Ward. While researching Ward, I came across a telling stat: opposing quarterbacks completed just 32% of their passes when targeting Ward. He had a very positive combine to go with the tape. He tied for the fastest 40 yard dash by a corner (4.32), had the longest broad jump and the second highest vertical.

#14 – Packers – Derwin James, S, Florida State

James started the year in Top 5 consideration with Minkah Fitzpatrick but slipped a bit during a disappointing season for the Seminoles. Long time starting safety Morgan Burnett is gone to the Steelers so Green Bay has a vacancy in their defensive backfield. James excels in run support and near the line of scrimmage which would fit perfectly with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at free safety. The Packers did draft a safety last year in the second round, Josh Jones, but I don’t think that would be enough to make them pass on James. Even though he and the team struggled at times, James still put up good totals (84 tackles and 2 INTs) in his comeback season from 2016’s knee injury. Corner may be a more immediate need for the Packers but something about Derwin James in Green Bay felt right.

#13 – Redskins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Redskins need a NT for their 3-4 scheme and there is none better in this class than Vita Vea. He has refrigerator like size: 6’4″ and 347lbs. He ran a 5.10 which sounds slow since we’re so conditioned to the times for RBs and WRs so let me put it into context. Since 2010, he ran the second fastest of any defensive lineman 345lbs or more. The only player faster was Dontari Poe who went 11th overall to the Chiefs in 2012. Vea’s stat line isn’t overwhelming (43 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks in 2017) but that’s because you can’t measure his impact with the boxscore. Lining him up alongside 2017 first rounder Jonathan Allen will create a stellar one-two punch for years to come.

#12 – Bills – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

In my preview of Lamar Jackson this offseason, I comped him to then Bills QB Tyrod Taylor so it’s ironic that I have him landing here after Taylor’s trade to the Browns. Jackson is an incredible runner as we all know. There was rumors that he should switch to WR but that was ridiculous – he’s a good quarterback. He may have a smaller frame than you would want from a run-first QB but he played 38 games in college and is not injury prone like the narrative suggests. Could he sustain a freak, season-ending injury? Of course, just ask Tom Brady. Jackson’s accuracy needs to improve to truly make it in the NFL (57% career completion percentage). I think he will start his career as an inefficient, big-play-waiting-to-happen type of quarterback. It’ll come down to the timing of those big plays. One last thought, can you imagine Lamar Jackson and LeSean McCoy running the read option together? My god.

#11 – Dolphins – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have said that Smith would be the first linebacker off the board. Fast forward to April and Tremaine Edmunds has leapfrogged him but the Dolphins would still be getting a Pro Bowl caliber player here. Smith is slightly faster than Edmunds (4.51 vs 4.54) but is smaller at 6’1″ and 236lbs. Over his final three games, under the brightest of spotlights in the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff, Smith totaled 37 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Pairing Smith with returners Kiko Alonso and Cameron Wake, the newly acquired Robert Quinn, and a hopefully-healthy Raekwon McMillan would give the Dolphins a fearsome front seven.

#10 – Raiders – Mike McGlinchey, T, Notre Dame

Much like how I picked Nelson for the 49ers to help protect their big money quarterback, I have done the same for the Raiders with McGlinchey. Incumbent LT Donald Penn is 34 years old and coming off a season-ending foot injury in 2017 which could cause him to miss some offseason time. Penn also has a huge roster bonus due in 2019, the last year of his deal, so I’ll bet that the Raiders are planning to move on from him regardless of his injury status. The Raiders offensive line was already a strength of the team (they allowed just 24 sacks, tied for third best in the league) but adding somebody like McGlinchey would solidify the position long term.

#9 – 49ers – Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

I was surprised to see that Nelson didn’t fit anywhere earlier for me. He’s probably a Top 5 talent but teams rarely draft a guard that high. A guard has only been taken this high four times since 1985 (coincidentally, twice in 2015; one of which is the much maligned Ereck Flowers from the Giants). Nelson has some fantastic highlights and I love watching them whenever they show up on my Twitter timeline. I’m not convinced the 49ers truly need to draft a guard this high but I figured that they just invested a ton of money in Jimmy Garappolo so they might as well add a piece to protect that investment.

#8 – Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Tremaine Edmunds has climbed up draft boards since the start of 2017 and finds himself at #8 in my mock now. He ran very well at the combine (4.54) and has fantastic size as well (6’5″ and 253lbs). He was very productive in 2017: 108 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Pair that production with his size and speed and you have a can’t miss linebacker. He will feature as an ILB in the Bears 3-4 defense but because of his speed and explosiveness, he can get to the quarterback too so he’ll have value as a situational pass rusher as well.

#7 – Bucs – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Tampa has thus far only re-signed one of their four free agent DBs, and have not signed any from other teams, signaling to me that it is a position they plan to target in the NFL Draft. What better player to target than Fitzpatrick who played both CB and S at Alabama. He likely factors more as a safety in the NFL but could see time as a strong nickel. Depending on the matchup, I would expect to see him in shadow coverage against a dominant tight end. Fitzpatrick struggled through a hamstring injury in 2017 but still managed to play 13 games. Don’t overthink it.

#6 – Colts – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State

Before the Colts traded the #3 pick to the Jets, Chubb was a common pick for them in mock drafts. The fact that the Colts traded back, adding multiple second round picks, and still land Chubb is awesome. Chubb put together back-to-back seasons with at least 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. He finished the year as the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year and a consensus All-American. Like Barkley, he’s a better player than his draft slot would lead you to believe.

#5 – Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The Broncos traded QB Trevor Siemian and signed journeyman Case Keenum in free agency. Keenum is 30 years old and his deal is only for two years so they’ve created a perfect situation to bring in a project QB like Allen. Keenum can start in 2018 and possibly even into 2019 if necessary. Allen’s accuracy issues are well documented and I am personally not a fan because of them. Many who know more than I, however, think he has the tools to be a star in the league. Coming in behind an established veteran would be the best thing for Allen’s future prospects.

#4 – Browns – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Barkley is possibly the best true football player in the class, at worst he’s second to Bradley Chubb. However, the quarterback run and general hesitance to draft running backs high lowers Barkley’s stock. He’s an absolute stud and will be a fantasy monster from Day One. He has an uncommon combination of size and speed and is a great receiver. He did struggle at times in 2017 as a runner but when he did, he made up for it in the passing game. If the Browns do go the direction I have planned for them, they would end up with a formidable offense in 2018.

#3 – Jets – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The run on quarterbacks continues! I have read a lot of Mayfield/Jets connections in the last few months and when there is smoke, there is fire. Mayfield is hyper-accurate and just plain hyper. His personality has undoubtedly taken him off some teams’ draft boards but I would want him on my team. My favorite part of the Senior Bowl might have been watching Mayfield on the sideline. It was a non-competitive all-star game but there he was living and dying with each play, hyping up teammates and helping his fellow quarterbacks. The only thing that makes me question this pick is the fact that the Jets brought in Teddy Bridgewater. I have never been a Bridgewater fan so I still think the Jets should go for a QB here.

#2 – Giants – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I have previously compared Rosen to Giants QB Eli Manning so this seems like a great fit. In my opinion, Rosen is the most NFL ready quarterback of this class. He does have injuries in his past and some like to question his “love for the game” but that’s not factoring into my analysis. He’s a prototypical pocket passer who will have a long NFL career. It’s not often that you get a chance to draft a franchise quarterback so the Giants need to just make this pick and stop pretending that Manning is anything more than a stopgap option at this point in his career.

#1 – Browns – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I don’t believe that Darnold is the best quarterback of this class, but I do think that he will be the first overall pick. Darnold is a confident passer which results in turnovers just as often as it does spectacular plays. He has an ability to extend the play with athleticism in the pocket and he is a team leader and motivator. I noticed that he has a long throwing motion which worries me and might be the explanation for the high number of interceptions (the window closes before he actually gets rid of the ball) and the fumbles (because the ball dips so low, it’s a target for rushing defenders). He has a high ceiling but also has a low floor – a high risk, high reward pick.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: March 15th 2018

Back in November, I released the first draft of my 2018 positional rookie rankings. Today, I will revisit the rankings and go deeper than before (TWSS?). Before we get started, please remember that we are still early in the draft process. All of these players just completed the combine and as of this writing, none have yet had a pro day or an individual workout. We’ll likely learn more about some prospects before this article even gets published; we’ll surely know a lot more a month from now. As in November, I did struggle at times as to whether the rankings should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted. Ultimately, I am ranking based more so on expected fantasy value than predicted draft order but the two are highly correlated. I’ll post separate fantasy and NFL mock drafts in April so you’ll be able to see where the two values diverge. I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position and designated tiers. For more detailed analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper and check out my “RSO Rookie Rundown” series.

Note: this was written prior to the retirement of Adam Breneman.

Quarterbacks

My quarterback rankings are likely more controversial than my rankings at other positions. I truly believe that Josh Rosen is the most NFL-ready of the top prospects and as such I still rank him first. I don’t think he will be drafted first at that position but honestly that might do more to help his fantasy stock than hurt it. I have been low on Sam Darnold and Josh Allen since October so their rankings should come as no surprise. The more I watch and read about Lamar Jackson, the more impressed I am with him as a quarterback; don’t believe the WR narrative. I am much higher on Mason Rudolph than many analysts. He may be a little stiff but he was highly productive, excelled in some advanced metrics and was a quiet leader in Stillwater. I think Rudolph will get drafted by a team who benches him for Year One only to give him the keys to the car to start Year Two (i.e. Pat Mahomes). Luke Falk and Mike White find themselves ahead of the next tier due to their elite size and above average production. Of the rest, my picks for guys who may move up the rankings are JT Barrett and Chase Litton. Barrett was a proven winner at one of the nation’s best programs so I won’t count him out yet. Litton threw too many interceptions in college but is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the class and as such will get a shot somewhere.

Running Backs

No change at the top for me. It’s Barkley well above Guice and Chubb. Jones, Penny and Michel are the next tier and are all very close. I have not elevated Sony Michel as high as some others because I am wary of the recency effect. Michel was in the RB5-10 range all season and one great game against Oklahoma shouldn’t really change that. All of the things we “learned” against Oklahoma were already baked into Michel’s ranking. We knew he could catch the ball, we knew he was explosive, we knew he didn’t need 20 carries to make a difference, etc. To bump him higher based off that one game is essentially a double counting accounting error. Freeman (early in the season), Balage (at the combine) and Johnson (late in the season) are an interesting tier as they all flashed at different times. I’m intrigued by Balage and his combination of size and athleticism; I want to study him more and could slide him up into the third tier. Two big names that have slid down the rankings are Josh Adams and Bo Scarborough. Both concern me because of their size: running backs as tall as they are just don’t often succeed in the NFL (which is also a concern for Balage). There are three FCS prospects on the list (Martez Carter, Chase Edmonds, Roc Thomas). My favorite of that group is Martez Carter. He is short and stout and is a dynamic pass catcher. Edmonds showed out at the combine and will likely move up NFL Draft boards. I’m not a fan of John Kelly because he has a lack of production, size and speed that worries me even though he’s starting to get some buzz. If I had to pick one mid- to late-round pick that will have the biggest immediate impact in the NFL, it might be Ito Smith. Smith was a very good blocker according to PFF’s metrics and is a fantastic receiver (40+ catches each of the last three seasons).

Wide Receivers

I have had Calvin Ridley as my WR1 since the start of the year and I have not been discouraged by the mediocre stats or his middling combine performance. I still believe in Ridley’s raw ability and think that he’s the best of this class. Unlike last year, this class lacks a Top 10 talent so Ridley may be artificially moved up draft boards simply because he may be the best at a position of need. Many other analysts have either Washington or Sutton at WR1 and I can’t really argue with that. They both out-produced Ridley over their careers and each have their own athletic attributes. Ironically, both Washington and Sutton are the only two to have a teammate also make this list so maybe I’m undervaluing just how dominant they could have been on another team. I love all of the guys in my second tier and I don’t think NFL teams will go wrong with any of them. If I was an NFL GM I would probably pass on Ridley in the first and instead grab one of Miller, Moore, Kirk or Gallup in the second. All four have a similar profile: they are versatile, quick and can make spectacular catches. Auden Tate is a big, pun intended, wildcard for me because his sample size is so small (just 65 career catches). However, he has the size and body control to be a true X receiver in the league. Dante Pettis is being too undervalued right now in my opinion. Many analysts seem to have forgotten all about him. He was a four year contributor on a championship contending team. He’ll get on the field early with his punt return and run after catch ability, maybe like how Tyreek Hill started his career, and could be a late round steal in fantasy drafts. Allen Lazard has fallen far down my rankings, mostly because he just failed to impress me at points this past season. There is talk of him moving to TE which would do wonders for his fantasy value. There are three guys in the bottom tiers who are more talented than their rankings: Cain and Callaway (off the field issues) and James (injury). I ended up watching a number of Syracuse games this year and became a fan of Steve Ishmael. He had a fantastic 105-1,347-7 line while playing for a bad Orange team. He has good size and made a number of big-time catches in the games I watched him play against Florida State and Clemson.

Tight Ends

The consensus opinion currently states that Mark Andrews is the best player at the position but I strongly disagree. I did not see enough out of Andrews for me to think he could be a starting NFL tight end. I would feel much more confident drafting one of the other top four for my squad. Goedert is the most well rounded player in the group and he’s such a likable person to boot. Gesicki and Hurst are right with Goedert. Gesicki is an incredible athlete but has a wrap for being a poor blocker. Hurst is underrated because he doesn’t score much (just 3 career TDs) but catches a lot of balls and can block better than most in the class. Adam Breneman has serious injury concerns which drags down his potential – if it weren’t for his history of knee injuries he could be atop this group (Editor’s Note: Breneman has since retired from football). Tight end was a difficult position to rank for me because there were few prospects I had a great feel for. Admittedly, everybody past Troy Fumagalli is a dart throw. Chances are that your fantasy league won’t need to draft the position deeper than that but if you do, I provided a bunch of names of guys to keep on your radar. I prioritized players with either great size or great production – very few had both – and left off some players who might be selected in the NFL Draft but likely have no shot at factoring in fantasy-wise. If you have to go deeper, take the guy who gets drafted highest, regardless of where he ended up in my ranking because there’s so little between TE7 and TE13. The two at the bottom, Yurachek and Akins, are truly deep sleepers. Both are undersized, “move” tight ends who could see a hybrid TE/WR role in the NFL. Teams may be less hesitant to draft somebody of their size and speed after the success of Evan Engram in 2017.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: January 27th 2018

My first 2018 rookie mock draft was published back on Sept 6 and while some things have changed, I am actually quite pleased with how my mock draft held up throughout the season. I followed the same guidelines here as I did back in September. Namely, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard one QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early (the deadline is Jan 15 so by the time you read this we may already know that some guys are not going into the draft). Players are broken down into tiers and I have noted where they were mocked last time to show their movement from version to version. To view version 1.0, click here. Version 2.0 never saw the light of day as Bryce Love, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin decided to return to school before publishing (for what it’s worth they were at 1.09, 2.06 and 2.09 respectively). I also compile mock draft information for the /r/DynastyFF sub Reddit which you can view here. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (last: 1.01)

Barkley is in a tier all by himself. He’s a supreme athlete (possibly sub-4.40 speed) with good vision and is a good pass catcher. He’ll be the consensus first pick in just about every fantasy rookie draft and could be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick. Don’t overthink it.

1.02, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (1.03)

1.03, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (1.02)

(Note: this was written prior to Nick Chubb’s poor performance in the championship game. In hindsight, I am less confident about placing him at 1.02. One game does not a career make but still he played poorly against a defense full of NFL talent. I will re-visit this in the offseason) I now have Chubb and Guice flipped compared to where I had them to start the season. Heading into the season, Chubb’s 2015 knee injury felt like more of a concern than it does now since he has completed two full seasons since. Their stats this season were similar but Chubb had a slight edge as a rusher (1,320 yards and 15 TDs for Chubb, 1,251 and 11 TDs for Guice). Neither is a receiver like Barkley. Both backs have a career high of 18 receptions in a season – Guice did so in 2017 while Chubb did so as a freshman in 2014. The margin between the two for me is razor thin. I lean towards Chubb since we have a bigger sample size.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (1.04)

1.05, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (1.08)

1.06, Ronald Jones, RB, USC (2.07)

I still have Ridley as my WR1 even though 2017 was not a great season (just 59 receptions, 935 yards and 4 TDs prior to the championship game). To my eye, he is just the most skilled WR in the class, regardless of his production. He is very fast (4.35 40 yard dash in the Spring), jumps well enough to out play his 6’1″ height and is a good route runner. Washington is pretty quick himself but he just doesn’t seem as polished as Ridley. It’s hard to argue against Washington’s production but I think he’ll be drafted later than Ridley and won’t be as good of a pro in the long run. Washington is this high though because I think he will make an early impact in the league if he lands on the right team. Jones makes a huge jump from 2.07 to 1.06. I questioned his size to start the year, I thought he was too tall for his weight, but am no longer as concerned because he put on some weight. He’s such a quick and fast runner and was very productive this year (1,550 yards, 19 TDs). If he was a little more “squat” but just as fast and nimble he’d be challenging for the 1.02.

1.07, Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (undrafted)

1.08, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (1.07)

Rashaad Penny made a huge impression on me this season. I noticed Penny in August but thought he was more of a returner than a running back. He proved his worth as a rusher (his 2,248 yards led the FBS) but still managed to contribute as a return man (3 return TDs). Penny will probably be an early Day Three draft selection but I think his value as a return man will help him see the field earlier. Bryce Love originally found himself in this tier before deciding to return to school. Conversely to the ascending Penny, Sutton’s stock is falling for me. Sutton has the best size of the top three receivers (6’4, 215lbs) but I have some concerns. In my past research, I found that he mostly beat up on bad defenses; against the best defense he played this year (TCU), he was held to one catch for zero yards. It also bothers me that Sutton was not the leading receiver on his team this year (Trey Quinn had more receptions, yards and touchdowns). Sutton likely saw extra defensive attention but if he’s to be an NFL star, he must be able to dominate even against double coverage in games against lesser defenses. Interesting stat for Sutton, 8 of his 31 career receiving touchdowns came in three games against North Texas. I want to see him at the combine – if he comes in smaller than advertised he could fall out of my first round.

1.09, Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (1.07)

1.10, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (2.02)

2.01, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (2.06)

2.02, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (1.05)

This tier features some of my favorite players in the draft in terms of value. I was high on Freeman to start the season before he came out on fire (10 TDs in the first four games). His pace slowed in the middle of the season but he finished strong too with 6 TDs in the games against Arizona and Oregon State. He decided to skip the bowl which was disappointing because I wanted to see him against Boise State’s defense. Despite the positive impression he made on me, I do have him a little lower now because he was jumped by Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny at the position. Two players who did not skip the end of their seasons are Anthony Miller and Sony Michel. Miller is an absolute gamer who I want on my team. He’s not that big or that fast but he’s just productive. He runs routes well and has possibly the best hands in the class. He could have broken his leg in the AAC Championship game and he would have still finished the overtime. It may be a bit of a reach but I’m willing to take Miller at the end of the first to guarantee I get him. Michel is sometimes overshadowed by Chubb but he’s just as good in his own right. He has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a career 6.1 yards per carry average. He is a better receiver than his 9 receptions in 2017 show. In 2015 and 2016 he had 48 combined. The hype on Michel is growing so you may not be able to get him at 2.01 but let’s not overreact to two nationally televised games. Michel will be a solid pro but I’m not willing to jump him over Chubb. Kirk dropped because I was probably too high on him originally but I still like him. He’s a great return man but so many of his receptions come at the line of scrimmage that I worry his NFL role may be limited.

2.03, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (2.08)

2.04, Sam Darnold, QB, USC (2.01)

This is where my RSO mock will diverge slightly from a true dynasty mock. I strongly believe that going quarterback early in the second round of your rookie mock is the way to go. The salary paid will be less than $2mil per season which is a fantastic bargain for a starting quarterback, especially considering that most quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will see game action sometime in the first season. The return on investment here is so high when you “hit” that it’s worth taking a chance on a “miss.” Readers will notice that 1) Rosen has jumped Darnold and 2) I am taking the QBs a little later now. Neither guy had a great season and they both come with some warts so I think this spot feels right. Even if Darnold gets drafted higher, barring some crazy trade that lands him on a good team, I would go with Rosen first as I feel he is more NFL-ready and will realize more value during his four year RSO rookie contract.

2.05, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame (2.03)

2.06, Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (undrafted)

2.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (3.07)

This was a very tough stretch for me to rank. I originally included Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris in this tier but they are now removed as they seek a higher grade next year. St. Brown dropped between mocks because he only had 33 receptions. Like Calvin Ridley, he was the leading receiver on a run-heavy offense. I didn’t count that against Ridley but I do against St. Brown because it’s tough to invest highly in a guy with just 92 career receptions. St. Brown would have dropped further if it weren’t for the decisions of Love and Harris ahead of him. Wadley and Gallup mostly stayed under the radar this season but move up in my rankings even though their per-touch averages decreased. They both significantly increased the number of touches they handled this season and played well in their biggest games. Gallup totaled 21 receptions and 282 yards in three games against Power 5 defenses (Oregon State, Colorado, Alabama); Wadley had 158 total yards versus Ohio State in what was ultimately the death blow for the Buckeyes’ playoff chances.

2.08, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (2.04)

2.09, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (1.06)

2.10, Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame (undrafted)

Bringing up the rear of the second round are three Power 5 players that I would be willing to take a shot on despite my concerns about their size. Pettis is a dynamo and can change a game with one touch. He had four punt return touchdowns this year and led the FBS in punt return average. He managed to increase his receptions this year but his per-touch averages decreased. He’s 6’1″ but about 195lbs so he’s a little too light. The fact that his former teammate John Ross was such a bust as a first rounder last year probably hurts Pettis even if it’s not fair. Scarborough and Adams were both productive in college but at 6’2″ they might be too tall to play running back effectively in the NFL. The comps in that size are not favorable. The best is Derrick Henry but other than that it’s a lot of no-name players over the last decade.

3.01, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (undrafted)

If it makes RSO salary cap sense to take a quarterback near the top of the second, it stands to reason you should at the top of the third. Mayfield is currently my QB3 after an incredibly efficient season but I want to watch more tape. Heading into the season I had both Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk ranked higher. Right now Rudolph would be the only one I consider putting here instead of Mayfield.

3.02, Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (undrafted)

3.03, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State (3.01)

3.04, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (3.05)

3.05, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (2.10)

Let the tight end run begin! I think everybody would agree that this year’s tight end class pales in comparison to last year but when is the right time to take one? I’m having trouble valuing them so I’ll bet others are too. My guess is that once one goes in your RSO draft, two or three will follow shortly after. Gesicki gets the nod as the top prospect because he’s bigger than both Andrews and Hurst and at least as athletic, if not more. Hurst is more of a traditional TE than the other two as he blocks better but he’s also fast enough and a good pass catcher. I had Hurst above Andrews in my early 2018 positional rankings and will stick with my gut. It takes time for tight ends to develop, Evan Engram notwithstanding, so I’ll knock Andrews down a peg because he so rarely lined up as a tight end in college. Lazard isn’t a TE but he’s a big-bodied receiver who I am a fan of. He was a key part of Iowa State’s miracle run (71-941-10). I wish I was able to find him a spot higher because it feels like I’m down on him compared to start the season but that’s not the case.

3.06, Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (undrafted)

3.07, Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana (undrafted)

3.08, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (3.04)

3.09, Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville, (undrafted)

3.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson (1.10)

Similarly to how I ended the second round, I will end the third round with a group of Power 5 players who I will take a flyer on. Tate has elite size, ball skills and body control but has just 65 career receptions. Cobbs also has elite size but he concerns me. He was suspended to start the 2016 season for “not living up to the responsibilities of the program,” and then subsequently suffered a season ending injury in his first game that year. In the summer of 2017 he was arrested at a concert. He didn’t face any discipline so it’s probably nothing but still I would worry about a pattern of negative behavior. Ballage is a bowling ball at 6’3″ and 230lbs. He is an effective receiver but averages just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. His size concerns me too. It’s hard to find a back with receiving stats like he had in 2016, so with a late third, what the heck. I don’t know enough about Jaylen Smith to properly evaluate him yet but our friends at the Dynasty Command Center are very high on him so I’ll trust their analysis. Smith had a crazy 22.9 yards per reception average in 2016 which was unsustainable (in 2017 it was still a solid 16.3). Deon Cain is another player who concerns me off the field. After a failed drug test, Clemson suspended him in 2015 for both of their College Football Playoff games and continued to hold him out through Spring practice. He lead the Tigers in yards (734) and TDs (6) this season but I was hoping for more now that he was out of Mike Williams’ shadow.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: January 5th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

The finish line is in sight, the marathon that is the bowl season is nearly over, just one more game remaining. While listening to ESPNU Radio these past few days (a must-listen for anybody with SiriusXM) a number of callers and pundits have expressed disappointment in an all-SEC championship. I say, “who cares,” because they are the two best teams in the country in my mind. Let’s not forget that despite all the banter about Bama’s playoff resume, they were still ranked #1 in the AP Poll until they lost to Auburn on Nov 25. Georgia didn’t get that high but was #2 for about a month in the middle of the year. I have covered these two teams a lot this season so I wanted to avoid rehashing the same analysis and the same talking points. So, I decided to go with a “tale of the tape” type preview. I will compare the teams’ various units to see who has the advantage before making my prediction.

Quarterback: Alabama

Ironically the first unit I looked at was probably the hardest for me to determine my pick. Jake Fromm leads Jalen Hurts in most passing categories but I give Hurts the nod for two reasons: 1) his experience and 2) his ability to protect the ball. Hurts may only be a sophomore but he’s literally been here before. This game will be Hurts fourth College Football Playoff game. He has played okay in those games but it’s less about what he does do and more about what he doesn’t do: turn the ball over. Hurts has just one interception and two fumbles lost this season. Fromm has five and two – not a huge increase but he had far fewer “touches” this season than Hurts. The two had basically the same number of passing attempts (248 vs 259) but Hurts had a hundred more carries and played in one less game. Fromm will likely outplay Hurts as a passer but I’d rather have Hurts.

Running Backs: Georgia

Both teams feature a stable of backs that contribute. Georgia uses Nick Chubb and Sony Michel almost equally but also sprinkles in freshman D’Andre Swift. Meanwhile, Alabama uses Damien Harris, Bo Scarborough, Najee Harris and Joshua Jacobs. Najee Harris and Jacobs only combined for three touches against Clemson but they were both utilized more during the regular season. Damien Harris is the lead back (19 carries for 77 yards last week) but Scarborough will still see plenty of action. Damien Harris averages 7.6 yards per carry on the season which is great but is actually eclipsed by Georgia’s Sony Michel (8.0). If you watched Georgia beat Oklahoma you were surely impressed by Michel. He out-touched Chubb 15-14 because of his four receptions. Michel is a better pass catcher than Chubb but his receiving against Oklahoma was mostly unexpected; he had just nine receptions on the season and only once in his four season career has he had four receptions in a game. My guess is that they did not feel they could trust freshman D’Andre Swift, the leading pass catcher among running backs this season, in pass protection which meant Michel getting more snaps on passing downs. If Georgia’s backs can match half their Rose Bowl output (367 total yards, 6 TDs) they’ll give the Bulldogs a shot.

Receivers: Alabama

Neither team had a receiver crack 60 receptions or 1,000 yards this season which is surprising to me. In an atmosphere that is so pass-heavy right now in college football, the nation’s two best teams are run-first and run-second offenses. Georgia WR Javon Wims arguably had the best game of his career in the Rose Bowl (6-73-1) but was not a huge factor in the offense until later in the season (25 of his 44 receptions came in the last five games, just 19 in the first eight). Alabama’s leading receiver is Calvin Ridley. Statistically, Ridley had the worst season of his career (59-935-4) but I’m not deterred: he’s still my WR1 for 2018 rookie drafts. Ridley is fast, has good hands, catches the ball away from his body and is a very good route runner. In Alabama’s rush oriented offense he may not put up big numbers but he’s a difference maker.

Defensive Line: Alabama

I’ll venture a guess that none of Georgia’s defensive lineman have a receiving touchdown this season like Daron Payne does now. That’s not why I’m taking the Tide’s line though, it’s the combination of Payne, Da’Shawn Hand and Raekwon Davis that clinches it. Payne, a 308lb DT, should be a first round pick this year if he declares early. Davis is a 6’7″ monster at DE who had 9.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks this season; he was a factor in the Sugar Bowl with 5 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and a sack. Hand has been limited by injuries throughout his career but is still an early Day Two prospect. Phil Steele ranked Alabama as the 6th best d-line corps in the preseason and they lived up to that billing this season (for what it’s worth, Georgia was not far behind at 11th). Georgia’s Trenton Thompson was a top high school recruit, had a good sophomore season (capped off by an 8 tackle, 3 sack bowl game vs TCU) but didn’t live up to his potential in 2017 (just 35 tackles, no sacks). DE Jonathan Ledbetter recorded a sack and six tackles last week against Oklahoma so keep an eye on him too. There’s a funny pun somewhere in the names of Davis, Hand and Payne but all I can come up with is “On MonDavis, Da’Shawn’s Hands will cause Jake Fromm some Payne.” I’m sorry.

Linebackers: Georgia

Alabama is used to having a “next man up” mentality on defense because they graduate so many players to the NFL. That was no truer than at linebacker this year when they lost Reuben Foster and Ryan Anderson last season and then lost Shaun Dion Hamilton to injury earlier this year. The Tide’s linebacker room sustained another blow this week when they heard that Anfernee Jennings underwent knee surgery. Rashaan Evans has stepped up in the meantime, especially in the Sugar Bowl tallying 9 tackles and a sack. Evans has 9+ tackles in four of the five games since Shaun Dion Hamilton went down. Unquestionably, the best linebacker on the field will be Roquan Smith. Smith is a potential Top 10 pick in the Spring (a la Reuben Foster last year). He’s a tackle monster, 218 combined the last two years, and added 5.5 sacks in 2017. Not surprisingly, he had 11 tackles in the Rose Bowl and made a key tackle to prevent a first down late in the game. The Bulldogs’ best OLB is Lorenzo Carter. Carter is long at 6’6″ and plays well in coverage when he’s not rushing the passer (Carter was PFF’s 11th ranked pass rusher in the FBS). Like Smith, Carter also went for double digit sacks against Oklahoma; that’s the first time he’s done that in his career so maybe he has a knack for the big game. If Alabama wasn’t facing injuries this unit matchup would be closer but it would still be tough to beat consensus All-American Roquan Smith.

Secondary: Alabama

Similar to how Georgia has one standout in the linebacker unit, so does Alabama in the secondary. Meet Minkah Fitzpatrick, a guy guaranteed to go in the Top 5 in the NFL Draft (maybe higher if any of the QBs return to college). Fitzpatrick is also a consensus All-American despite battling injury this season. He missed a game but still managed 55 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. That lone INT was a big drop from the six he had last season but it won’t hurt his draft stock, he has ball skills. What Fitzpatrick also has is versatility: he has played at both corner and safety and will be an immediate starter at the next level. Safety Ronnie Harrison and CB Anthony Averett will also get drafted high, maybe Day Two for both of them. Levi Wallace led the team in passes defended (14) and won SEC Defensive Player of the Week twice. He wasn’t even on my radar prior to writing this preview but the stats caught my eye. Safety Dominck Sanders is Georgia’s most well-rounded and productive DB with 37 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 4 INTs and 5 passes defended. He’s been a durable three year starter and could be a late round draft prospect but I honestly have not done any research on him. There won’t be a ton of passing in this one so spending more time on the secondary is probably not worth it, just don’t forget to pay attention to Fitzpatrick.

Specialists: Alabama

If this game turns out to be a defensive battle, the specialists will figure. Alabama punter JK Scott is an all-time great punter in SEC history (5th best average in the FBS since 2000). He averages 45.5 yards per punt for his career so he can flip the field and give the Tide the field position advantage. Georgia’s Cameron Nizialek is no slouch either; he averaged 44.9 yards per punt this year which was fourth best in the SEC and actually better than Scott this year. I have a feeling we could be seeing Hurts and Fromm starting a lot of drives from their own eleven yard line. The slight field goal kicking edge goes to Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship (17-20 on FG, 61-61 on PAT) over Andy Pappanastos (16-21, 54-54). Blankenship wears a sweet pair of rec-specs while he plays so maybe I should give him a larger advantage than I am. Neither team has returned a single kick or punt for a touchdown this season but now that I say that we’ll probably get two in the final. This unit matchup is almost too close to call. Since it’s close, I will go with Alabama because they have the best individual player in the bunch, JK Scott.

Prediction: Roll Tide

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

As my readers know, I am a Michigan homer but I’m going to be as impartial here as possible. There is no reason this game should be on New Year’s Day. I guess the NCAA (read as: ESPN) prefer to have some of the biggest games spaced out on Dec 29 and Dec 30 but it’s hard to get excited by this matchup. Both teams are 8-4 and were a combined 1-5 against ranked teams (notably that single win was Michigan over #17 Florida in the first game of the season before we knew how bad Florida was going to be). The teams are also banged up: per Sports-Reference.com’s injury reports, the teams have a combined 22 players injured with varying severity.

Since Gamecocks WR Deebo Samuel has not returned to practice and will not play in the bowl, the most significant injury is likely to Michigan QB Brandon Peters. Peters started the year as the third stringer but was elevated to the starting role on Oct 28 against Rutgers. Wilton Speight got hurt in the team’s fourth game but wasn’t playing well anyway. Wolverines fans like myself got a taste of truly dreadful quarterback play when John O’Korn took over and struggled mightily. Peters has not been great (57.6% completion percentage, 4 TDs and 0 INTs) but he’s a significant improvement over the turnover prone O’Korn. The offense is led by a trio of running backs: Karan Higdon (929 yards, 11 TDs), Chris Evans (661-6) and Ty Isaac (548-2). Not surprisingly, none of the WRs are a factor. The team’s leading receiver is TE Sean McKeon (29-285-3). Keep an eye on FB Khalid Hill near the goal line. Hill only has 34 yards on 17 carries this season but he has three scores and had ten last year. Michigan’s defense is chock-full of NFL talent and they alone should warrant their own full-length piece. The biggest difference makers on that unit are DT Maurice Hurst and DE Rashan Gary. Hurst has 58 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks; Gary has 55-10.5-4. Gary is the better pro prospect, don’t be surprised if he’s a Top 3 pick in 2018, but the stats belie his skill because of how often he’s double teamed. This Youtube video is a good cut-up of 2016 highlights for a number of 2017’s key defensive players, including LBs Chase Winovich and Mike McCray.

It’s a shame Deebo Samuel won’t be back for the bowl after a broken leg. Reports earlier in the season were that he could return but he has not practiced. Samuel is draft eligible but he should probably return for another year. He has fifteen career touchdowns (7 rushing, 5 receiving, 3 returning) and is an explosive game breaker. Sophomore QB Jake Bentley regressed in 2017 in terms of his rate stats and efficiency. I have not watched much of Bentley so I’m not able to provide much analysis here but I’ll bet that there’s a good chance he doesn’t start 2018 as the starter. TE Hayden Hurst is the team’s best NFL prospect. He had 41 receptions for 518 yards and 2 TDs this year. He has not been a high volume scorer (just 3 career TDs) but he is a good pass catcher and at least an average blocker in my film study. Hurst was my TE2 when I did 2018 rookie positional rankings in November; he’ll probably come in a little lower than that but he’s still a possible rookie pick in many fantasy leagues. LB Skai Moore is a four year contributor who has 346 career tackles, 5 career sacks and 14 career interceptions. Moore is WalterFootball.com’s 12th ranked OLB. His versatility in pass coverage should earn him a Day Two draft pick.

Michigan’s defense, without a doubt, will be the most dominant unit on the field in this one. I’ll make the homer pick and take my Wolverines. Prediction: Michigan

What a game this one is going to be. We all know the story surrounding outgoing UCF head coach Scott Frost so let’s not beat the proverbial dead horse because the spotlight should be on the players.

Auburn had a roller coaster of a season. Heading into SEC play they were 2-1 but with two poor wins and a close loss to #3 Clemson. They made it up to #10 but a loss to LSU bumped them all the way down to #21. From there they worked their way into the playoff picture with wins over #2 Georgia and #1 Alabama (both of whom are playing in the playoff despite their losses to Auburn). A poor showing in the rematch against Georgia sealed their outside-looking-in fate. Throughout the season they were led by two players on offense: QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson. I was lukewarm regarding Stidham for most of the year but he won me over against Alabama. I wrote him up that week and compared him favorably to Alex Smith. He’s an efficient and athletic game manager which sounds like an insult but it’s actually high praise (don’t forget that Smith was taken first overall in 2005). Stidham threw just one INT in SEC play but has a mixed bag of results in the year’s biggest games (good games against Georgia and Alabama, bad games against Georgia and Clemson). UCF has a poor passing defense so I expect Stidham to put up big numbers. Kerryon Johnson has battled some injuries this season but he was still very productive in eleven games (1,320 rushing yards, 23 rushing TDs, 23 receptions, 188 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). I did not rank Johnson in my Top 15 for 2018 rookie RBs but his success in November has me re-thinking that: over 700 totals yards and 15 total TDs. As far as non-offensive skill positions go, the Tigers have three NFL talents. At corner, Carlton Davis could land near the end of the first round. According to Pro Football Focus, Davis was the 50th ranked player in “Cover Snaps per Reception” and was average in passer rating against. Still, my preferred draft sources (WalterFootball.com and NFLDraftScout.com) favor him over guys I like more like Josh Jackson or Jaire Alexander. OG Braden Smith will be a second tier option for teams who miss on the elite prospects in a guard-heavy draft. K Daniel Carlson will end up getting drafted before the 6th round by some team desperate to end their kicking woes; he has played in 52 career games and hit on 90 of his 111 attempts (plus a perfect 195-195 record on PATs). In a game destined to come down to who has the ball last, Carlson could be a factor.

The UCF offense is all about QB McKenzie Milton. I have been praising him for a few weeks now because he is one of the purest passers I remember watching in recent memory. His deep ball looks effortless and he’s not afraid to throw it – he can just spin it. Milton played as a freshman in 2016 but exploded in 2017. He threw for 3,795 yards and 35 TDs and completed 69.2% of his passes. The biggest knock on Milton is his size. He’s listed at 5’11” and 177lbs and that might be soaking wet with two sets of shoulder pads on. I don’t think there is any way we talk about Milton as a pro prospect next year so enjoy him now as a fun to watch college QB. WR Tre’Quan Smith is the biggest benefactor of Milton’s prolific passing. He only caught 54 balls but went for 1,082 yards (an outstanding 20.0 yards per reception) and 13 TDs. Per PFF, Smith is fourth in the FBS in “Deep Receiving Catch Rate” by catching 68.4% of his deep attempts. Smith has 50+ receptions in each of his three seasons so who knows maybe another solid 2018 gets him drafted. UCF does not have any high level NFL hopefuls but you should read up on LB Shaquem Griffin. He was the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2016 after finishing with 92 tackles, 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. His stats all decreased this year but that doesn’t make him any less fun to watch. Griffin’s left hand was amputated in 1999 and against all odds he is pushing for a shot in the NFL. I envy people like Griffin who can overcome their physical limitations to do great things, I’m not sure I would have the strength to do so myself, and I don’t doubt for a second that he’ll make an impression on NFL scouts.

I’m not a gambler but if I were, I would avoid this one. I’m picking with my heart and not my head here: I love watching UCF and am rooting for them to show the playoff committee that they deserved a chance. Prediction: Central Florida

LSU was an enigma to me this season. Midway through the year, I was honestly surprised to see that 5-2 LSU was ranked #24. One of those losses was to Troy from the Sun Belt which would seem to be disqualifying. Of the other Power 5 teams in the Top 25, only Stanford (vs San Diego State) has a loss to a Group of 5 team; and that is without a doubt a stronger loss than LSU’s. I guess the committee felt that LSU’s win over then #10 Auburn more than made up for the bad loss (but by that logic Ohio State should have been in over Alabama). LSU has two players who will go at the top of drafts: DE Arden Key in the NFL Draft and RB Derrius Guice in your rookie draft. Guice has been as under the radar as the soon to be 1.02 can. Saquon Barkley has, deservedly, received a ton of attention this season but second tier backs like Ronald Jones and Bryce Love have stolen some of the shine that should be on Guice. He has confirmed that he will play in the Citrus Bowl which is good because I figured he might follow former teammate Leonard Fournette’s lead and skip the bowl. Guice had a solid season but was not as dominant as he was last year when sharing the backfield with Fournette. This year Guice finished with a 1,153-11 line. He’s not a big receiving threat (just 29 career receptions, 15 of which came this year) which could limit his utility at the start of his NFL career. It turns out that my feelings about Guice from August were spot-on: “I’m very interested to see how Guice does without Fournette…in 2017. If he can repeat even 75% of his production from 2016 he’ll be a first round NFL back. What I saw in Guice’s tape was not enough for me to push him to RB1 over Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, but at worst, Guice will be your 1.02 for 2018.” Injuries derailed Arden Key’s season and will cause him to miss the bowl. He still has an elite size and speed combination plus enough production to guarantee he finds the Top 10 in the NFL Draft. WR DJ Chark had 47 touches for 874 total yards and 4 TDs; his production is undraftable but his 6’4″ height could get him a look. CB Donte Jackson is WalterFootball.com’s 3rd ranked corner.

The strength of Notre Dame’s team, stop me if you’ve heard this before, is their offensive line. I would not at all be surprised for Notre Dame to have both the first tackle and the first guard drafted, both likely in the Top 15. T Mike McGlinchey (6’8″ and 315lbs) and G Quentin Nelson (6’5″ and 330lbs) were both first team All-Americans. They pave the way for RB Josh Adams and QB Brandon Wimbush to rack up rushing yards. Adams finished with 1,386 yards and 9 TDs while Wimbush had 766 and 14. I am not a fan of Wimbush because he is such an inaccurate passer but you can’t deny his ability as a runner. I have waffled on Adams throughout the season but I remain concerned about his size at the next level (he’s too tall – click the link for my analysis). In Week 9, I predicted he’d be a 3rd round rookie draft pick and I’ll stand by that now. It’s a shame that Wimbush has struggled to complete passes because WR Equanimeious St. Brown (my vote for the first player to break RSO’s draft software because of the length of this name) has such potential. St. Brown is long and lean (he really needs to add about 10lbs to make it in the NFL) with a good pedigree (4 star recruit, offers from a number of big schools). If he comes out he is going to have to dominate the combine because his production is below average (90-1,437-13 in two seasons as a starter). LB Nyles Morgan considered coming out after his junior year (88 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 4 sacks) but returned to school; unfortunately for Morgan, 2017 probably hurt his stock more than helped it (82-6.5-1). Both WalterFootball.com and NFLDraftScout.com have him as either a 7th rounder or undrafted.

I struggled to pick this one because I’m not a fan of either team. I’ll take LSU because of Guice and the strength of their defense (even without Key). Prediction: LSU

And here we are, finally the College Football Playoff, 39 games later. The Georgia vs Oklahoma matchup may lack the familiarity of the Alabama vs Clemson matchup but it will be equally entertaining featuring a great matchup of Oklahoma’s offense against Georgia’s defense. Baker Mayfield is apparently sick but there’s no way that it keeps him off the field.

Oklahoma’s season was momentarily disrupted by their Oct 7 loss to Iowa State but they went on to win eight straight including three wins against teams ranked #8, #10 and #11. Coming into the season, I had serious doubts about whether Baker Mayfield was going to 1) win the Heisman and 2) become a top NFL prospect. Turns out that I was wrong on both accounts. Mayfield has been exceptional this season. Who would have thought it would be possible to improve on his 2016 numbers, but he did. Mayfield finished with 4,340 yards (2nd in FBS), 41 passing TDs (2nd) and completed 71.0% of his passes (1st). His interceptions went down, his yards per attempt went up, and on and on. There just aren’t enough superlatives for what Mayfield accomplished on the field this season, especially considering that he is a former walk-on at Texas Tech. Mayfield does have some “character” question marks but I don’t think any of them are enough to ding his draft stock. I had Mayfield as my QB6 when I ranked potential 2018 rookies but I think he’ll likely be in the QB4 range by moving ahead of Luke Falk and Lamar Jackson. I expect Mayfield to be drafted in the first half of the first round in April; depending on his landing spot he could be a factor in fantasy leagues as a rookie. Mayfield is surrounded by a strong supporting cast composed mostly of underclassmen. That includes sophomore RB Rodney Anderson (960 yards, 11 TDs), freshman RB Trey Sermon (710-5) and freshman WR CeeDee Lamb (40 receptions, 741 yards, 7 TDs). Aside from Mayfield, the best pro prospect is TE Mark Andrews. Andrews is 6’5″ and 254lbs and often plays in the slot to maximize his size advantage over smaller corners and safeties. Andrews is certainly not the most well-rounded TE in the class but he will likely be the first drafted in 2018 rookie drafts for his receiving ability. In my early 2018 mock rookie draft I had Andrews as the 2.10 pick and the first TE off the board. Andrews led the team in receptions (58) and receiving TDs (8) and was second in receiving yards (906). LT Orlando Brown seems to be a polarizing player in mock drafts as I have seen him as high as the 2nd overall pick to the 18th overall pick to all the way down to 59th overall. The Sooners defense is led by DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Okoronkwo has two straight 70+ tackle and 8+ sack seasons. He landed on numerous second team All-American lists and was the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year (shared with Malik Jefferson).

Georgia had some quarterback controversy very early in the year when freshman Jake Fromm took over for the injured Jacob Eason in the season opener. Regardless of how well Eason played in 2016 as a freshman, there was no way he was getting the job back from Fromm once he took over. By virtue of their strong rushing game, Fromm is not counted on to throw the ball much (he had six games with fewer than ten completions) but when he does he is efficient. He ended the season with 21 TDs and 5 INTs and had rate stats significantly higher than those of Eason in 2016. The run game is a three-headed monster featuring Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift. Chubb led the way with 1,175 yards and 13 TDs; Michel had 948 yards and 13 TDs; Swift had 597 yards and 3 TDs. Neither Chubb nor Michel are pass catchers but Swift did have 15 receptions. Swift is a true freshman and a name to watch for next season after Chubb and Michel leave for the NFL. Both Chubb and Michel were drafted in my 2018 early mock draft (Chubb at 1.03, Michel at 2.06). Chubb has an injury history which may trouble some NFL teams but he’s been mostly healthy since his 2015 knee injury. Swift closed out the SEC Championship game against Auburn and had 94 total yards on 10 touches – look for a similar output here in the bowl because Georgia will need to get the ball out quick to neutralize the pass rush. The Georgia defense is led by two LBs who are bound to be IDP considerations in 2018. The lesser prospect is DE/OLB rusher Lorenzo Carter. Carter had 48 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries this season. I researched him back in Week 4 and guessed he could end up as a first rounder – that may be a little high but he could still get picked on Day Two. Roquan Smith is an elite prospect. He was named SEC Defensive Player of the Year and is a first team All-American. In 2016 he had 95 tackles with no sacks, this year he improved to 113 tackles and 5 sacks. He’s the top draft eligible player at the position and will be a Top 10 draft pick.

I’m taking Oklahoma purely because of Baker Mayfield. If the game is close, he’ll find a way to win it. I worry that Georgia could get an early lead and milk to clock with their run game but if they start slow they’ll struggle to keep up with Mayfield, et al. Prediction: Oklahoma

How often is the third installment of a trilogy the best? Probably never unless you’re a big Return of the Jedi fan. I don’t think this one will have the juice of the last two matchups because we’re missing the star that is Deshaun Watson. Don’t get me wrong it’ll be entertaining but we won’t be seeing this one on ESPN Classic in ten years.

Alabama snuck into the playoff in my opinion. If it were up to me, I would have taken Ohio State because they won their conference and did not have any FCS wins. Sure, Alabama has one less loss but in my mind they also have two less wins. Alabama is full of familiar names so we’ll go through them quickly. QB Jalen Hurts feels like he’s been around for half a decade but he’s just a sophomore. He is a run-first quarterback (he led the team in rush attempts with 137) who really improved as a passer this year. His yards per attempt went up to 9.0 from 7.3 and he threw just one INT (he also only lost one fumble). He didn’t run as much in 2017 as he did in 2016 but he also increased his yards per rush this year. Nick Saban trusts him with the ball in his hands and you can see why. In the preseason, my preferred Crimson Tide RB was Bo Scarborough; he disappointed this year with just 549 yards and 8 TDs. I will be lowering him in my 2018 rookie rankings (assuming he comes out). The best back this year was Damien Harris who is also draft eligible; he leapfrogged Scarborough in my early 2018 positional rankings. Harris ran for 906 yards and 11 TDs but added just 8 receptions. He’ll probably be an early 2nd round rookie pick for me next year. WR Calvin Ridley is still my WR1 despite the fact that many draft analysts disagree with me. Ridley’s production has been hampered by a run-heavy offense so of course we aren’t going to see production like Amari Cooper or Julio Jones. Ridley is a little too light so I would like to see him add about 10lbs in the offseason to approximate Cooper’s size. Ridley has a pedigree that few prospects can match: he was ESPN’s #1 recruit in his class and was the leading receiver for Alabama in three straight seasons in which they contended for the national championship. I’m not scared off by his decreasing production and will keep him as my WR1 until he proves me otherwise. Alabama has a number of defensive prospects including LB Rashaan Evans, S Ronnie Harrison and DT Da’Shawn Hand but the number one guy is DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has played both corner and safety so he offers versatility in both pass coverage and run support. His stats decreased from 2016 (66 tackles vs 55, 6 INTs vs 1) but he was battling a hamstring injury so that could have been the cause. He has four career interception return touchdowns so when he has the ball in his hands he can change a game too. Fitzpatrick is likely to go in the Top 3 in the NFL Draft and will instantly makeover a struggling defense.

I put out my first playoff ranking in Week 7 and had Clemson as the #1 team (I also had Alabama and Georgia, three out of four ain’t bad) and am happy to see them ascend back to the #1 spot after that loss to Syracuse. Like Alabama, the strength of the team lies on defense. There might be fix or six guys from the defense drafted this Spring. DT Christian Wilkins started the season with some preseason hype, played well and increased his stats in 2017 (52 tackles, 5.0 sacks). Wilkins will be a first rounder but challenging him to be the first pick from Clemson will be DE Clelin Ferrell. Ferrell is just a redshirt sophomore but he broke out in 2017 for 62 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. The defense also has two tackle machines in Kendall Joseph and Dorian O’Daniel. The Clemson offense is similar to that of Alabama in that it features an efficient rush-first quarterback. That quarterback is Kelly Bryant. Bryant managed to play in each game despite an ankle injury and a concussion (he left that loss to Syracuse early due to the concussion). Bryant only threw for 13 TDs but rushed for 11 more. Freshman RB Travis Etienne is a burner who came on early in the season with some big plays to close out blowout wins. He finished strong too: he had six scores over the last four games. Etienne only had double digit carries twice so he’s not a high volume player but his speed means he’s only one missed tackle away from a touchdown. WR Deon Cain (55-659-6) is a top receiver prospect for many analysts but I’m not sold. He does not have elite size or production; I’ll wait and see how he does at the combine but I’m not sure his speed will make up for the other aspects. Cain was suspended for the semi-final and championship games in 2015 after a failed drug test which will factor into his draft evaluation too. WRs Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud are undersized but trustworthy possession receivers.

I’m not sure they deserve to be here based on their resume but the Tide deserve to be here based on their roster. Save for the defensive line, Alabama arguably has better players at every position than Clemson. Roll Tide. Prediction: Alabama

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.