My brain says that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won’t beat Fabricio Werdum at UFC on FUEL TV 10 this Saturday, but my gut says that you can never count out “Big Nog,” especially in Brazil. The man is 37 years old and sometimes walks like he’s 80, but still he keeps reaching into that magic hat of his and finding a few more rabbits.

Right now Werdum is about a 3-to-1 favorite, and with good reason. But you bring up an interesting question about Nogueira’s future. If he does knock off Werdum, who’s currently No. 5 in the USA Today Sports/MMAjunkie.com MMA heavyweight rankings, we kind of have no choice but to take him seriously. It puts him in a situation that’s even trickier than Wanderlei Silva‘s, because a) he’ll have beaten a top 5 fighter, and b) he’ll have done it in a division that’s still relatively thin. I’m not saying Nogueira will get an immediate title shot off a victory in Fortaleza (though Werdum very well might), but the UFC will have to give him someone in the upper tier of the top 10 next. Maybe it will also have to give him a fight somewhere outside of Brazil, where he hasn’t won since 2009.

@benfowlkesmma does Bellator get a good deal with Rampage on their roster or will they regret it when he starts complaining about them #TMB

It’s tough to say whether it’s a good deal since we don’t know exactly what “Rampage” Jackson costs these days. Maybe Bellator/Spike/TNA Pro Wrasslin’ got him for a song once he shopped around and realized that a 34-year-old former champ on a three-fight losing streak isn’t at the top of any promoter’s must-have list. But regardless of price tag, will Team Viacom eventually come to regret getting into the “Rampage” business? Probably, yeah. Just look at his track record.

When Jackson was with PRIDE, he was convinced that promoters were trying to sabotage him. When he came to the UFC, he couldn’t stop telling us how under-appreciated he was. When he was fighting, he wanted to be making movies, and when he was making movies, he wanted to be fighting. Maybe that’s why Viacom figured the solution was to sign him to a deal linking him to multiple platforms right off the bat, just for when he inevitably gets bored and wants to go check out that green, green grass on the other side of the fence. Even then, you have to ask yourself what Jackson brings to the table in any of those industries at this point.

Is he still a good fighter? Maybe, if/when he really wants to be. But after washing out of the UFC after three straight losses, if he then becomes Bellator champ, it invites unfavorable comparison’s between Bellator’s roster and the UFC’s. What about pro wrestling? Maybe he’ll end up being good at that, and he certainly has the charisma for it, but there’s more to it than cutting a promo in a pair of sequined tights. Is Jackson really willing to put in the work to learn the craft of clotheslines and pulled punches, or will he decide he’d rather be doing something else the first time he gets choke-slammed through a table? We don’t know. What we do know is that, at least during his time with the UFC, his outside activity made him a liability nearly as often as it made him an attraction.

@benfowlkesmma So after saying that they don’t want to sign UFC washouts Bellator signs several UFC washouts… beginning of the end? #TMB

I wouldn’t go that far, but it is a curious about-face. What I wonder is whether that unofficial policy wasn’t flawed from the start.

I completely understand why Bellator wouldn’t want to be known as the organization where UFC fighters go when they can’t hack it in the big leagues anymore. At the same time, so many fighters have come in and out of the UFC over years that it’s tough to stick to that without walling yourself off from a lot of good fighters. If a guy appears on “The Ultimate Fighter” near the start of his pro career, does that mean he’s forever off-limits? What about fighters who are clearly still competitive, but are at the end of their UFC contracts and are looking to make a move?

The talent pool in this sport isn’t big enough for a promoter like Bellator to declare ineligible every fighter who’s ever stepped in the octagon. Eventually, you’re going to end up signing some ex-UFC fighters. You just want to make sure you’re signing the right ones.

@benfowlkesmma why do I feel so….underwhelmed…with the card for FSN1#1?

OK, fine. Seems like there’s enough discontent with the UFC on FOX Sports 1 1 card (more on that name in just a second) that we might as well deal with it. I know a lot of fans heard UFC president Dana White promise that it would be “the best television card we’ve ever done,” and they immediately pictured Jon Jones fighting a live grizzly on cable TV. Now that it looks like the headliner will be Chael Sonnen vs. Mauricio Rua – a fight that seemed like a suitable replacement, though by no means main event-worthy for the UFC 161 pay-per-view lineup – it feels like a little bit of a letdown.

The card still looks pretty solid overall. You’ve got Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne. You’ve got Urijah Faber lending what’s left of his star-power. Thiago Alves and Matt Brown seem guaranteed to produce a bloodbath. Plus there’s Conor McGregor as the rising star of the moment on the prelims. If this were a UFC card on FX, it’d be a shockingly good lineup. It’d even be strong as a UFC on FOX card. Basically, if White hadn’t over-promised right out of the gates, I think we’d all be pretty content. Maybe we can all learn something from that. For White, the lesson is that too much hype, too soon can sometimes be a bad thing. For fans, it’s that you have to take a fight promoter’s hyperbole with a grain of salt. Seems like we already knew that, but it helps to be reminded every now and then.

Look, I hate that naming convention as much as you do, but what are the alternatives? If we just call it “UFC on FOX Sports,” there’s no way to distinguish one from another. If we call it “UFC on FOX Sports: Sonnen vs. Rua,” then it means we have to know what the main event is before we can refer to it in stories, and I think we all know by now just how easily main events can change. If we call it “UFC on FOX Sports Boston,” then what happens when the UFC wants to go back to the same city more than once? For the sake of limiting confusion and keeping things straight internally, the numbered naming convention makes a lot of sense. The UFC has embraced it with all its other events. Why else do you think UFC 100, which definitely was not the 100th event, was such a big deal? It’s just that now it seems hopelessly clunky when you put numbered events on a cable network that already has a number at the end of its name. If you’ve got a better idea, I think we’d all like to hear it. Until then, things are going to look weird around here.

@benfowlkesmmaaside from 1 landmark fight, what else has Stephan Bonner done to make UFC HoF? If that’s the case Brock Lesnar is a shoe-in

It’s pretty much just the one fight. I think we all realize that. I think we also realize that the UFC Hall of Fame is a company hall of fame, and should not be viewed as a hall of fame for the sport of MMA. It wasn’t like Stephan Bonnar got voted in by his peers or an esteemed panel of experts. The UFC just decided it wanted to give him a plaque and a framed photo on a wall somewhere, and that was it. That’s fine. The UFC has every right to do it. Honoring a guy who popped positive for steroids twice in six years does send a mixed message about performance-enhancing drug use, and honoring him for one fight seems like a strange lowering of the bar. Still, I don’t think anyone is in danger of confusing the UFC Hall of Fame for Cooperstown as it is.

Hopefully the fear of torch and pitchfork-wielding MMA fans would be enough to prevent that, but I see your point.

We all know fight cards are subject to change, but how much change can they be subject to without becoming a different product than the one fans bought tickets for? I think what really stings about UFC 161 is the fact that a Mauricio Rua vs. Chael Sonnen bout was dangled out there after Antonio Rogerio Nogueira pulled out with an injury, and people found that they liked that idea maybe even better than the original matchup. So when it got yanked out from under them and the UFC put it on an entirely different fight card, those who’d already bought tickets for UFC 161 in Winnipeg understandably felt like they were being taken for granted.

Managing these lineups and dealing with injuries and late replacements is a tough job, and for the most part, the UFC handles it well. But every once in a while, some fans are going to feel like they got screwed. It’s starting to seem like new Canadian markets have worse luck than most.

To be fair, one of those losses was a disqualification in a fight he was clearly on the verge of winning. And, come on, a DQ for punches to the back of the head? You could call that in roughly half of all fights that end via TKO. You take that away and Erick Silva is 2-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming in a “Fight of the Night” performance against Jon Fitch. That ain’t too shabby, or at least it wouldn’t be if it weren’t the “once-hyped” label you mention.

Silva’s predicament is another example of something that happens a lot in MMA. Fighter wins a couple bouts, gets hailed as the next big thing, then he loses, and suddenly we all act like we can’t understand what anybody ever saw in this guy. It’s not unlike what we see in other sports, except that in MMA you go a few months between performances. An NFL quarterback has a bad game and he can get back out there next week and make everyone forget. Silva – who hung tough against Fitch, even if he lost the decision – has had to sit around at home and let the narrative reform around him. He has a tough opponent in Jason High this weekend, but if he wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his bandwagon get crowded once again. Even if he loses, you can’t close the book on him that easily.

@benfowlkesmma Is Chael Sonnen to be admired for his take on anyone approach and is it the reason he gets the big fights? #TMB

There are two schools of thought on this, and I’ve heard strong cases for both from fighters and coaches, and promoters and fans. On one hand, Chael Sonnen is willing to step up and fight, and that’s awesome. It’s like DaMarques Johnson put it when describing his decision to accept a fight with Amir Sadollah on short notice: If you were sitting next to this guy at a bar and he poured a beer in your lap, would you fight him? If you’re a bad-ass tough guy (and MMA fighters are professional bad-ass tough guys), then sure you would.

On the other hand, Johnson lost that fight with Sadollah. He later lost another short-notice bout to Gunnar Nelson, and right after getting knocked out by Mike Swick. Still, he stepped up and fought. He also got cut from the UFC.

Without guys like Sonnen and Johnson, we’d lose a lot more bouts to training injuries. We’d see more fight cards subject to even more change. And, at least for Sonnen, his willingness to jump in and get busy has helped him remain one of the UFC’s favorites, which is good for his bottom line. The problem is, when people look back on your record they tend to forget which fights you had a full training camp for and which ones you didn’t. All they see are wins and losses. If your goal is to fight as often as possible and make as much money as you can, maybe you don’t care. But if you view your career and your record as the body of work you hope to leave behind to mark your time in this sport, I could see how you might not want to step out into the spotlight unless you’re ready to give people their money’s worth.

@benfowlkesmma Do you think Hendo has to decisively finish Rashad to earn a shot at Jones after a poor performance with lyoto?

Not necessarily. Dan Henderson has to win if he wants a shot at the title, and if he wants it any time soon, he probably has to win in a fashion that encourages people to write off the Lyoto Machida fight as a fluke. But Henderson has a couple things going for him at UFC 161. For one, beating Rashad Evans still means something, and finishing him at all would mean a whole lot. For another, the 205-pound class is going to run out of fresh challengers soon if things continue at the current pace. Right now Henderson and Alexander Gustafsson are the two most notable light heavyweights whom Jon Jones hasn’t already beaten up. Henderson just has to do enough to keep himself in that conversation, though that’s easier said than done against a guy like Evans.

@benfowlkesmma If BJ Penn does decide to come out of retirement and fight at lightweight, who should welcome him back?

A neurologist. Hopefully one who will explain to him that it’s not worth it at any weight, especially if you don’t need the money and you’re already destined to be remembered as one of the sport’s best. Dana White was right when he said that Penn is too tough for his own good. He can and will absorb a tremendous amount of punishment, and in the end it won’t be good for his brain or his legacy. He doesn’t need this anymore. Staying retired is the smartest thing he can do.

@benfowlkesmma TMB: Has Roy Nelson finally jumped the shark? Anybody who shaves and does crunches is on steroids? What the fudge?!!

That’s “Big Country” for you. He loves conspiracy theories almost as much as he loves being a thorn in his boss’s side. If he can wrap the two up together by claiming that almost every UFC fighter who is not Roy Nelson is on the juice, you better believe he’s going to go for it. The bummer is, by overstating the prevalence of performance-enhancing drug use in MMA, he accidentally makes a joke out of what is a serious issue. PEDs are a problem in MMA, but they aren’t the sole reason why other guys have six-packs while Nelson sports a keg. Nelson knows that. He also knows that claiming otherwise will make headlines, which is exactly what happened.

Ben Fowlkes is MMAjunkie.com and USA TODAY’s MMA columnist. Follow him on Twitter at @BenFowlkesMMA. Twitter Mailbag appears every Thursday on MMAjunkie.com.

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