Scarborough: Republicans are going to lose “in a big, big way” because of their gun votes

posted at 4:41 pm on April 24, 2013 by Allahpundit

A fun clip from yesterday’s show via RCP, not just because this little wishcast/harangue is so obviously the product of spite and disgruntlement over losing the big vote but because it’s so obviously wrong. If you saw the new data from Pew this morning, you know why. Ninety percent support for expanded background checks in no way means that 90 percent of the pubic is angry at the GOP over the Senate vote. Rather, the vote on Toomey/Manchin was more of a proxy vote on gun control generally: If you want more GC then you’re angry or disappointed, if you don’t then you’re fine with it even if you supported T/M. Sean Trende predicted that a few days ago, before the Pew data was released, in arguing why the vote almost certainly won’t hurt Republicans next year:

Finally, we need to remember that most Americans are relatively low-information voters who are unlikely to dig down into the details of policy papers and voting records. What they tend to do instead is use what political scientists call “shortcuts” to fill in a picture of what a candidate believes in.

For example, few voters vote primarily on the abortion issue (and those who do tend to be pro-life), but voters will use a pro-life stance to paint a broader picture of a politician as having ties to the religious right, or being opposed to broader women’s rights. Similarly, affirmative action doesn’t poll particularly well, and few politicians will actually run on the issue because it is low-salience and can paint a picture of someone who needlessly brings up a divisive racial issue.

My sense is the gun issue works the same way. While most voters are unlikely to punish a senator who supports, say, background checks, such support paints a broader picture of that senator as someone who possibly backs broader gun control, or who is liberal, or who supports an administration with mediocre national approval ratings. This is a real problem for proponents, and it isn’t likely to change anytime soon.

Gun control is, as Trende says, a proxy issue for ideology generally, which helps minimize the backlash over voting no on a bill that 90 percent of the public supports. If you like the idea of expanded background checks but don’t trust Obama or liberals or gun-grabbers generally, you can live very easily with Toomey/Manchin going down. Related to that is the fact that gun control is a quintessential (maybe the ultimate) “slippery slope” issue, if only because some of the left’s favorite proposals all but guarantee further action down the line. No one, including Joe Biden, thinks that banning “assault weapons” is going to stop mass shootings. There’ll be more, and when there are, further bans will be demanded. Give an inch now and they’ll ask for a mile later, almost necessarily. All gun-rights supporters understand that, so if you’re one of them, how broken up are you really about Toomey/Manchin failing, even if you thought the bill on its own merits was okay? Toomey himself seems to understand this. If you don’t trust Obama to protect your Second Amendment rights, you’re not going to go crying that the administration was denied an extra bit of power to regulate guns.

If Trende doesn’t convince you, read Nate Silver’s statistical analysis of whether the gun vote will hurt Republicans next year. Short answer: Probably not, unless the left can build it into some broader narrative about the GOP being “out of touch” on issues that voters care more about, like the economy. Who knows, though, if gun control will still be salient next November vis-a-vis other topics? If ObamaCare’s falling apart and insurance premiums are ticking upwards, who’s switching their vote based on what the Senate did about background checks 16 months ago? How bad would the next 16 months have to be for Obama that one of his best arguments against the GOP, worth spending lots of time and money on, is how they voted — with some Democratic support — on Toomey/Manchin? C’mon.

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I am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

SoCalInfidel on April 24, 2013 at 7:10 PM

We are already talking about this on the Fox News Poll thread. You can hop over there for some recommendations. :)

SoCalinfidel is it?
If you want simple get a semiauto.
Glock, Springfield, S&W, Sig, Kahr, etc.
Don’t knock a 9mm. Ammo (use to be) everywhere.
Some of the new ‘personal protection’ specific ammo is amazing …
(but pricey).

If you want REAL simple with no switches or gimmics … go revolver. Keep maintenance in mind. If you don’t take care of it it will fail at the most inappropriate time. (Revolvers don’t like dirt.) .357 is a great cartridge … no snubbies though.
Fundamental Admonition: Keep in mind, just because you bought a piano doesn’t make you a musician. OK?
Read and understand everything about whatever pistol you choose.
Exercise safe practices ALL THE TIME.
Contact a certified NRA instructor for lessons & training.

am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

SoCalInfidel on April 24, 2013 at 7:10 PM

I’ve posted before on the Ruger P95:

We love talking about them, so don’t hesitate to ask for recommendations if you need guidance (Ruger P95- cheap, reliable, cheap… Did I mention cheap and reliable? Ugly and heavy though. Great truck gun, not great for CCW.)

It is a great, inexpensive, no-frills starter with a decocker/safety, plus with Ruger’s renowned reliability and probably the best warranty in the business.

Even in this political climate you can probably find them new for just over $300.

Finally, we need to remember that most Americans are relatively low-information voters who are unlikely to dig down into the details of policy papers and voting records. What they tend to do instead is use what political scientists call “shortcuts” to fill in a picture of what a candidate believes in.

I’ve been working the theme of ‘When you vote for a Democrat you’re voting for gun control’ in our Leftist regional paper lately, and my word, Progressives hate it! You’d think they’d welcome my reminding the world of their virtuous and popular stand, but….

Toomey must be wandering around looking for a wormhole in time, that would pop out about three or four weeks ago, when he could still have bailed on this and saved his reputation and career. Man, talk about treacherous little combed-over shites…

I am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

There are a lot of people who train both novices and experts; and a few of the people there live in California and can give you suggestions about good gunshops to visit. They can also help you navigate the process of buying your gun in Cali.

On a non-laughing matter, Joe, why did you resign mere months after winning reelection and does the name ‘Lori Klausutis’ mean anything to you?

Resist We Much on April 24, 2013 at 4:50 PM

Hey he explained that. He wanted to spend more time with the family. So….. after months on the campaign trail, thousands spent for reelection, he up and announced his resignation five months into his new term. What’s suspicious about that? ;0

I think the thing I dislike about Scarborough the most is his attitude that he’s the last “real” conservative/republican left out there. That’s the only thing I get from him in the form of consistency. Sometimes we get what I feel is a real reaction from him but mostly it comes off as an elitist, belt way, ass kissing show.

I am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

SoCalInfidel on April 24, 2013 at 7:10 PM

An M32 Mark 14 MGL. Anything less and you’re doomed. But, morally speaking, I would have to run a background check (of sorts) first. Text me.

Hey Joe, so what if we lose? Is the eternal politician in you not seeing the value of doing something because you might actually believe it’s the right thing to do? Oh no we can’t have that. Compromise your values to win and win at any cost.

If you don’t trust Obama to protect your Second Amendment rights, you’re not going to go crying that the administration was denied an extra bit of power to regulate guns.

American ought to realize–if they value their freedom–that trusting any president enough to give up their basic rights is suicidal. I could care if George Washington said to give up the guns–the government will be nice.
Tomorrow the useful idiots will give presidential power to a man or woman that hates America and loathes free independ3ent people.

I am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

SoCalInfidel on April 24, 2013 at 7:10 PM

Everyone is different and you should take the opportunity to shoot several and see what is most comfortable for you. Me personally, I carry a S&W M&P 9c. Nice high quality compact handgun. Plus, it’s Made in the USA.

Here’s a clue. The proposed legislation was not called the “background check bill” because it was nothing of the sort. It was much more than that.

In fact, the so-called Manchin-Toomey bill was 44 pages long. What was on the first few pages? Well, let’s start with penalties for states who do not contribute data to the federal NICS database (not checks, data) and the ability for the Attorney General to determine compliance with the law and withhold federal funds from the states if they were not in compliance.

And there is much more. Read S 649 if you want to see for yourself.

If Joe-Know-Nothing and his empty headed sidekick want to have a conversation- let’s talk details. But he won’t because he’s a shill carnival barker liberal.

This won’t “hurt” Republicans. In fact, in the bastion of liberalism, NY, every gun owner I know cheered when it was defeated.

Moron. This guy is a tool.
So because we haven’t implemented universal background checks and a national registry, and restricted magazines to 2 bullets, we’re giving aid and comfort to Al Qaeda? Really?

Mika hit the wall, she’s going in for nips and tucks every couple years now. It’s all makeup and clothes at this point. Bleech.

Wait, did he just say he’s a ‘second amendments guy’? Riiight.

I hate these MSNBC snippets, it’s the only time I see that channel and it always leaves me with a nasty taste in my mouth for some reason.

Translation: We are the ghosts of the Loyalists; we never accepted the legitimacy of the United States and its Bill of Rights back then, and we do not now.

Tripwhipper on April 24, 2013 at 8:31 PM

Ghosts? How about the modern-day incarnations? Ideological bretheren … If they were ghosts they’d be harmless. Many of the Loyalists had enough self-respect to leave the new country whose values they did not hold so that they could continue to be subject to their rotten king.

Today’s Loyalists (aka Liberals) have decided to remain and subvert the ideals of this once glorious country so that we are all now subject to their new king: an all-powerful federal government.

This is seriously why people need to stop expressing horror at “litmus tests”. One should be able to demonstrate how they are conservative, i.e. “bear conservative fruit”. This tool certainly doesn’t.

If I claim to be a huge baseball fan, but can’t name the person who broker Babe Ruth’s home run record, or don’t know what position Babe Ruth was originally signed for, then you can rightly scoff at and discredit my declaration of being a “huge baseball fan”.

If the Republicans can manage to hold on to their majority and slight minority in the 2014 elections it will only be because of their votes on gun control and nothing else. They have managed to muck up every other thing they touch, as a group. Individual exceptions still exist, however.

Try out as many different quality pieces as you can. Whatever is easiest for you to consistently hit the mark with, and does not jam, is probably your best bet. I’m a big fan of a well massaged 1911 type myself, but a cheap .38 5-shooter makes a good leave-it-dry- and-loaded, easy squeeze “OH S#!T!!” tool.

I am looking to purchase a basic handgun. I like in southern california (if you couldnt figure it out from the screenname). Anybody have any tips on what I should be looking for? I know, that is a really broad question.

SoCalInfidel on April 24, 2013 at 7:10 PM

Pretty Broad: But narrow it down some

Basic 5 point question:

1) What am I using it for? Concealed Carry? Home Protection?

2) When would I us it? On the Job or at home?

3) Am I the only one to use it?

4) How often will I practice with it?

5) How much “gun” can I afford?

It’s not a catch-all list, but answering it, truthfully will better serve you to what you should have and what you can successfully use.

Most importantly, join a gun club via the NRA or similar organization, and get certified! Even in a manic-depressive state like California, there are hoops you’ll have to go through to get a permit…do it. You’ll spend money, blood, tears & sweat but it will save you a LOT of headaches in the future.

But a short answer, IMHO, is if you’ve never held a weapon before or fired one AND you’re not planning on a strict daily carry regimen, get a .357 with a 4″ barrel.

They’re solid, reliable weapons, rather inexpensive (est $300-$400) and it will shoot .38 Special ammo as well as .357 Magnum. Don’t try to buy exotic ammo for them, it’s a waste of $ for you at this point. For .38 I suggest at least 125 grain or better in JHP or JSP….for .357 140 to 158 in JHP, JSP AND FMJ.

Don’t buy cheap foreign made ammo right now; spend the xtra buck and get consistent made stuff, like Winchester or Federal.

Don’t skimp on a holster; a good holster AND belt will be just as important as the ammo you use. Choose right for you situation.

Don’t forget: Practice. A Lot. Every chance you can…Did I mention, A LOT!!!