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Friday, June 24, 2016

Thurman-Porter: Keys to the Fight

One of
the best potential fights in the welterweight division takes place on
Saturday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn as undefeated titlist Keith Thurman
(26-0, 22 KOs) faces former champion Shawn Porter (26-1-1, 16 KOs). The match was originally scheduled for earlier in the year but was pushed back because
Thurman was involved in a minor car accident. Thurman and Porter have known one another since their amateur days and they sparred together earlier in their careers. Each should be familiar with what the other brings to the table. Both enter the ring coming off of long
layoffs; Porter last fought in June, Thurman in July. The winner of Saturday's
bout becomes a top-three fighter in the division and is certainly poised to graduate
to even bigger potential opponents in the near future. Below are the keys to
the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article.

1.
Thurman's training camp

As a
result of his car accident, Thurman didn't start sparring until mid-May (at least,
that's what has been reported). It's anyone's guess as to what type of shape he
was in when he returned to camp following the accident. Thurman's camp has been kept under wraps so it's difficult to know about his conditioning
or his current state of mind.

With
Dan Birmingham, Thurman has one of the best trainers in the business.
Birmingham gets his fighters in shape and doesn't
accept excuses. But it's a legitimate question to ask if Thurman's heart is
truly into this fight. The bout took longer than expected to be finalized and
Porter was the one who seemed more eager for it to happen. Will Thurman be at
his best physically and mentally? Will he have the stamina and desire to go 12
hard rounds? Porter's known for being a gym rat and if Thurman isn't in top
shape or supremely focused on the task at hand, Porter will have a huge edge in
the fight.

2.
Effective aggression from Porter, not just aggression

Over
the last three years, Porter has become one of the premier pressure fighters in
the sport. He digs to the body mercilessly and has the athleticism to cut off
the ring against athletic opponents. However, his transition to an inside fighter
hasn't always been seamless. In his only loss as a professional, to Kell Brook,
Porter exhibited some flaws that could be exploited by Thurman. Too often, Porter smothered his work on the inside, lessening the impact
of his punches and allowing Brook to tie him up with ease. In addition, Brook capitalized on Porter's overzealousness coming
in; he pasted Porter with a number of big shots throughout the match,
specifically, straight right hands. Although Porter was competitive in the
fight, these deficiencies, and Brook's ability to exploit them, allowed for
Brook to win the decision.

Against
Adrien Broner last year, Porter had corrected some of these flaws. He came in
behind punches more often and was more successful in determining when to apply
pressure. Using his jab regularly and giving himself enough room to work
on the inside, he was a better fighter than the one who had lost to Brook.
Still, Broner was able to time Porter with some big shots and landed a
hard knockdown in the bout's final round.

Porter
certainly wants to work on the inside against Thurman, who has significant
height and reach advantages in the fight. Thurman was hurt to the body in his
last bout against Luis Collazo and may be vulnerable at close range. But
Porter needs to come in behind punches and use his footwork to contain the
athletically gifted Thurman. Cutting off the ring will be an imperative.

In
addition, Thurman has the power to significantly harm Porter. Thurman can hurt
him from the outside with straight right hands and he also possesses a
devastating right uppercut that can be used in tighter quarters. Porter must work in close range but
he has to remain attentive and intelligent. Also, Porter has to stay active during clinches, using his free hand to deliver shots and/or refusing to get completely tied up. He needn't be dirty but he has to keep working until
the ref officially halts action. He should never be the one who initiates a
clinch.

3.
Thurman's (lack of) accuracy

Thurman
has three knockout weapons: his straight right hand, left hook and right
uppercut. However, all of these shots are long and take time to develop. Once
he unfurls these punches, he exhibits plenty of hand speed, but mechanically,
his shots have a lot of moving parts. Thurman can also be
a wild swinger, finding himself out of position after missing, which gives his opponents
opportunities to counter.

Thurman's
accuracy will be essential on Saturday. If his jab and straight right hand
continue to hit their mark, he will be far more successful at keeping Porter on
the outside. There, Thurman can score with eye-catching shots and neutralize
Porter's inside game. However, if Thurman gets knockout-happy or is off with
his timing, Porter will have a much easier time coming in. In addition, if
Thurman swings wildly and misses, Porter can strike with two or three quick
shots before Thurman returns to a defensively responsible position. Perhaps
Thurman's best play in the fight will be to ensure that he connects from the
outside. Sacrificing a little power for some accuracy should behoove him during
the bout. He still has enough natural thump to hurt any opponent at
welterweight but the increased accuracy will keep him out of harm's way more
regularly.

4.
Consistency

Against
higher-level opposition, neither fighter has put together a truly complete
performance. Thurman has had fights where he's gotten tagged early (Diego
Chaves, Jesus Soto Karass and Collazo) and another where he faded late (Robert
Guerrero). Porter takes break during fights, letting Devon Alexander back into
their bout after dominating him early and featuring a paltry work rate at various
points against Broner.

Both
fighters have lacked focus during fights, whether it has been momentary
defensive lapses that lead to harm (Thurman) or bewildering periods of low activity
(Porter). Can either fighter break his bad habits? Which one can put together 12 consistent rounds? The
answers to these questions will most likely tell us who will be raising his hand
at the end of the evening.

5.
"Plan B"

Thurman and Porter have exhibited a range of styles as professionals. Thurman started his
career as a knockout artist and has morphed into a boxer-puncher while Porter
has transformed from a boxer-puncher into a pressure fighter. It will be
fascinating to see the adjustments from each side during the fight. Thurman is
the more intuitive and improvisatory boxer in the ring and can better make his
own changes while Porter is more disciplined and better equipped to take
instruction. Both fighters have top cornermen, with Thurman employing the aforementioned Birmingham and Porter working with his father, Kenny. Birmingham is more seasoned at the top levels of the sport but the elder Porter has displayed an impressive boxing acumen.

I
awarded Porter my 2013 Trainer of the Year award for his brilliant corner work during the Julio Diaz rematch and the Devon Alexander fight. In the Alexander bout, Shawn's bull rush attack was the major difference in the fight. (Previously, Porter had rarely exhibited the
characteristics of a pressure fighter.) However, I believe that Kenny Porter
was wildly out-coached in the Brook match. The needed adjustments didn't come
and Porter might not have sensed that his son was behind in the bout, which
is a cardinal sin for a trainer.

Thurman
will present Kenny Porter with a host of issues and he'll have to think on the
fly and clearly communicate those adjustments to his son. In addition,
Birmingham will have his hands full if Porter can consistently get on the
inside. The battle of the corners will be one of the more intriguing aspects of
the fight.

Prediction:

I
believe that Thurman is the better talent. He has superior athleticism,
significant physical advantages and a big edge in punching power. If there is a
knockout blow in the fight, he would be the more likely candidate to have
landed it. However, boxing is often about intangibles. In recent fights, Porter
has had the superior work rate. He continues to improve as a fighter and he's
always in the gym. Might he be the hungrier one as well?

I think
that Thurman-Porter will be a highly competitive fight. Both boxers will take
turns imposing themselves on the other but they will also take breaks, which
will provide opportunities for the opponent. Although I do think that Porter's
aggression (whether it is actually effective is another story) and work
rate will keep him in the fight, ultimately I believe that Thurman's clean power punching will be enough to carry the day. Finally, it's worth noting that two
of the judges, Waleska Roldan (who really likes house fighters) and Steve
Weisfeld (who appreciates defense and clean punching), may be more inclined to
shade competitive rounds to Thurman. In a close fight, that could be a huge factor in determining the winner.