posted at 4:20 pm on December 5, 2008 by Allahpundit

“It might come as a surprise to some that Palin does better than Huckabee among GOP men but that Huckabee beats Palin among Republican women,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Palin’s strength is also concentrated among older Republicans, but Huckabee may have a slight edge among conservative Republicans.”

Among voters who consider themselves born again or evangelical, Huckabee draws more support than Palin, with a 9 point edge. Meanwhile, Palin holds a 7-point advantage among non-born again or evangelical voters.

Mitt pulls 28, Gingrich 27, Giuliani(!) 23, and Jindal 19. The good news? If this is the race we end up with, come 2011 there’ll be a new Kathleen Parker “oogedy boogedy” column every week. Exit question: To the extent there’s anything newsworthy about this moronic poll, which, like all the rest thus far, shows Palin atop the field, what’s more significant? The fact that Huck seems to have a base of fanatic supporters as large as hers? (The 34/32 number comes from voters who say they’re “very likely” to support their candidate. If you include “somewhat likelies,” Palin leads by two.) Or the fact that the ‘Cuda leads significantly head to head among non-religious voters? Given her strict views on abortion and the media’s demagoguery of her beliefs, I’m reading that data less as a reflection on her than as a perception that Huckabee’s a hardline theocon.

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See how many other Republican office-holders over the next three years want Palin around to help them with their fundraising and/or re-election efforts, the way Chambliss did. Then see how many want the same from Huckabee, who should have a higher overall profile for a while, due to his Fox News show. That’s a lot easier test to see which one the base is more enthused about, and who would be their second choice if their prefer somebody like Mitt or Jindal over either Mike or Sarah.

As much as I like Palin, she has just been poisoned by the media. All of my relatives conservatives relatives that I talked to over Thanksgiving break think she is a yahoo, a bible thumper, a book burner, etc etc etc.

Look at Ziegler’s poll, as much as people were generally uninformed about things, they all knew every nasty detail the MSM wanted to pitch about Palin.

The Republican Party needs to come up with a schedule of primaries that ends the choke hold Iowa and New Hampshire have. We need candidates who can win in blue states, and we’ll never get them with Iowa and New Hampshire coming first in the process.

If this is the race we end up with, come 2011 there’ll be a new Kathleen Parker “oogedy boogedy” columnmumbo jumbo every week.

My collie says:

According to the Concise Oxford Dictionary:

Mumbo Jumbo is a noun and is the name of a grotesque idol said to have been worshipped by some tribes. In its figurative sense, Mumbo Jumbo is an object of senseless veneration or a meaningless ritual.

Any poll listing a half-dozen contestants is going to be stupid and worthless. Hell, even Ron Paul will show up as more than a blip if all you’re doing is measuring whose supporters are the most fanatic.

The liberal media were successful in their divide-and-conquer strategy in the last primary. Let’s not let it happen again.

As much as I like Palin, she has just been poisoned by the media. All of my relatives conservatives relatives that I talked to over Thanksgiving break think she is a yahoo, a bible thumper, a book burner, etc etc etc.

Look at Ziegler’s poll, as much as people were generally uninformed about things, they all knew every nasty detail the MSM wanted to pitch about Palin.

Clark1 on December 5, 2008 at 4:27 PM

But that’s assuming that the Sarah Palin of some prospective presidential run is going to be the same Sarah Palin we saw during the McCain run. I don’t think that’s a safe assumption. And poisoning or not, she still connects with voters. She still has charisma and core beliefs. I don’t ask for much more.

Expect the MSM to push Huck for the next four years. He is the next most worthless candidate, behind McCain, that the Republicans could choose and the McCain gambit worked out pretty well for them this time.

By the time 2012 rolls around I don’t think either of them will be the nominee. We’re going to go with a proven candidate who is solidly conservative and who has a strong resume, in order to reassure voters worried about all the destructive change an Obama/Pelosi/Rein triumverate could have wreaked by then.

I like Palin, I really do but there is no way she will ever be President. The media will destroy her. The best she can hope for is Senator from Alaska and she should pursue that and fight the good fight.

Huckabee is so wrapped up in himself and appeasing the MSM that he will be their darling. Their last darling was John McCain and you see how they turned on him. I for one, will be so done with the GOP if he is the nominee in 2012.

But that’s assuming that the Sarah Palin of some prospective presidential run is going to be the same Sarah Palin we saw during the McCain run. I don’t think that’s a safe assumption. And poisoning or not, she still connects with voters. She still has charisma and core beliefs. I don’t ask for much more.

ddrintn on December 5, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Excellent point. Never underestimate the ability of the American public to forget. Think of how Hillary Clinton is now regarded by many conservatives to be a decent pick for SecState.

And Palin is an inherently likable personality. I think with distance from this election people will see that again. She had to play the attack dog role as a vp candidate and that’s what brought on a lot of the broad negativity to her. (The fringe leftist always hated her).

If she runs again, she’ll run a “positive” campaign and will be able to run as the “change” candidate — assuming that Obama turns out to be Carter and not Clinton.

Palin is a good person, but she is not right for the position of President. I know that opinion is hard to hear for some of you but some of us cons think this way. And it has nothing to do with anything but her qualifications.

Palin is a political super-star if we let her, nobody else on that list can galvanize the country the way she can. People who aren’t that itnerested in politics will tune in to see what she does. This is huge, potentially

I will never vote for another Bush ever again. This family is finished in American politics. Feel free to elect them in Florida and Texas, but don’t thrust them on the rest of the country. NEVER AGAIN. Enough with this family.

Wouldn’t Huckabee and Palin fight for the same voting block? I think this would be and advantage for Mitt. How popular is the populist message going to be in 2012, after a long long recession. Who do you pit the masses against? All the bankrupt companies? I’d vote for the businessman.

I still believe Sarah is now the de facto leader of the GOP; whether she remains that has yet to be seen; but I will state to all those with PDS that she is in the ‘mix” and will remain in the ‘mix’ as long as she wants to run in 2012. Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Jindal, and Giuliani are all worthy candidates if they decide to run. I will not diminish them to promote Sarah, but I will say that Sarah’s presence on the Internet is already impressive and I predict will grow even more impressive as we approach 2010 and the run up to the primaries and 2012.

I don’t mean to be rude about CNN, but I never quite trust their polling data. I’m sure that they conduct them professionally, but their ‘focus groups’ and their snap polls combined with their ‘poll of polls’ makes me a little leery of their data. It’s not really that they were far off in their polling during the election (because they weren’t). It’s just having a very small amount of personal experience with the use of surveys and focus groups, I felt that the ones that they ran (at least the focus groups that they ran on the air) tended to be very poorly conducted. Perhaps I’m wrong about that.

All that said, I like Palin, but it seems to me that name recognition and current public perception plays a large role in these 2012 polls (as it does in all polls). Which is to say, they really have very little bearing on what the primary season will produce four years from now. A day is a long time in politics now, much less four years. An awful lot can and will change.

Don’t assume that Mitt will run in 2012. He may not want to be the next John Kerry or Bob Dole given that it is very unlikely that anyone is going to beat Obama. So, let Huckabee and Palin knock each other out.

I know it’s going to piss a lot of people off, but it needs to be said: There is a significant number of people out there who will vote for whomever professes their love of Jesus most loudly and justify any other positions or actions that candidate takes by whatever means are necessary. Traditionally, these people tend to lean GOP but it’s not because they’re conservative; it’s because they hate the godless liberals. Huck soaks these up but is pretty much unacceptable in every other respect, so he drives a nice neat wedge into the voting base and he knows it. So he’s going to have to be bought off or run out with a scandal. Maybe Slublog can come up with some good photoshops or something. Between Rathergate and fauxtography, we should be able to get something to stick in the press.

Palin is a good person, but she is not right for the position of President. I know that opinion is hard to hear for some of you but some of us cons think this way. And it has nothing to do with anything but her qualifications.

As opposed to who else’s qualifications as a comparison? Obama? I laugh in your face over that quote and opinion of yours Dr. Manhattan. I think it may be that wee-bit of sexism in you bubbling over the top over Palin.

Palin has just as much as a shot for presidency in 2012 as did Obama for 2008.The advantage will be hers due to early recognizance as a political star and another 2 more years as Governor of Alaska under her belt to add to her resume’ and experience. Anything that’s been routed out against her in 2008 looking for dirt would not be repeated to such a degree for the 2012 race.

It shows that Palin and Huckabee are not fighting over the same voters ( as some have suggested) and that each has their own support from different areas. Huckabee has the support of the populist theocrats. Palin has broader appeal, at least within the party as of now. I don’t think poll is all that relevant mainly because it’s still 2008. In addition, I would be surprised if Palin doesn’t hold off until 2016. I think that would be her best move.

Tough choice. Do we go with the blue-collar populist social con who’s soft on immigration? Or do we go with Huckabee?

Do you mean the same Huckabee as this one?

Huckabee heaped criticism upon immigration legislation in the Arkansas Legislature, describing it as “inflammatory, race-baiting and demagoguery.” He also challenged the Christian values of its main sponsor. Huckabee said the bill, seeking to forbid public assistance and voting rights to undocumented immigrants, “inflames those who are racist and bigots and makes them think there’s a real problem. But there’s not.” He singled out Holt, who often talks of his strong Christian beliefs, saying, “I drink a different kind of Jesus juice. My faith says don’t make false accusations against somebody.” Gov. Mike Huckabee Thursday denounced a bill by Sen. Jim Holt that would deny state benefits to illegal immigrants as “un-Christian, un-American, irresponsible and anti-life.”

Mitt pulls 28, Gingrich 27, Giuliani(!) 23, and Jindal 19. The good news? If this is the race we end up with, come 2011 there’ll be a new Kathleen Parker “oogedy boogedy” column every week.

Don’t be so surprised. There are still a few moderate Republicans out there who are more interested in economic and defense issues than social policy. In all of the VP selection commotion and throughout the Palin circus, people forgot that they were/are an important part of the Republican coalition. The people who want Giuliani to run for President are the kind of people who are a little scared of Palin and Huckabee types, and who (like me) stayed home on Election Day. For all the grief Kathleen Parker (and David Brooks, Charles Krauthammer, Peggy Noonan, etc.) gets from the conservative wing of the GOP, there are a lot of people who identify with her anti-oogedy-boogedyism.

We all like to think that the Reagan Democrats voted for him in 1980 because they suddenly saw the light and became conservative, but in reality it was because Reagan gave an awesome debate performance against Carter and convinced everyone that he was the change they needed.

This year we pitted a bald grumpy looking old guy who looked like Don Rickles against a handsome kind looking young man who looked like Sidney Poiters. Gee, who do you think “low information” swing voters would vote for?

Depending on how the economy does, it might be a clear win to pit a spunky optimistic Sally Fields against a now dejected and defensive Sidney Poiters in 2012.

canopfor at 4:47 PM: Exactly: CNN wants to orchestrate Republican infighting; that is the reason I will not indulge in bashing other candidates. That’s exactly what Obama and his merry men and women and their allies in the MSM and elitist pundits want to foment. I, for one, am on to your my leftist friends; united we stand, divided we fall. But as I have constantly harped on-the base must settle on 1 candidate as soon as possible; if it is Sarah-great; if it is another candidates that emerges so be it-but decide on one candidate-don’t allow to happen what happened in 2008 where McCain came up the middle when the base couldn’t decide.

the kind of people who are a little scared of Palin and Huckabee types, and who (like me) stayed home on Election Day. For all the grief Kathleen Parker (and David Brooks, Charles Krauthammer, Peggy Noonan, etc.) gets from the conservative wing of the GOP, there are a lot of people who identify with her anti-oogedy-boogedyism.

Big S on December 5, 2008 at 4:51 PM

Thanks for staying how and giving us Obama and a Dem Congress. Learn this: the ‘conservative wing’ of the Republican Party is the Heart & Soul; you and other…..whatevers are hangers-on.

Never underestimate the ability of the American public to forget…And Palin is an inherently likable personality. I think with distance from this election people will see that again.
If she runs again, she’ll run a “positive” campaign and will be able to run as the “change” candidate — assuming that Obama turns out to be Carter and not Clinton.
ramrocks on December 5, 2008 at 4:40 PM

+1. I’m holding out hope for 2012, but I think 2016 is more likely to be her year if she decides to run. The media is so in love with Obama that his administration would have to be completely fubar for any Republican to have a chance. And, 2016 gives her more time to prepare, her kids will be older and more settled (which will make things easier for her), it gives more distance from all the stuff from this year, more time to build her credentials, etc. We’ll see where things stand in 2010 though.

The one part of Sarah’s conservative philosophy that I believe Sarah can use to expand her popularity is her affection for libertarian principles; of all the mistakes the McCain campaign made it did not allow Sarah to demonstrate her support for libertarianism but instead allowed the MSM portray her as a right-wing religious bigot, which her own Alaskans know she isn’t and which the Lower 48 will find out hopefully over the next 4 years.

I don’t think Allahpundit is a Palin-hater. (Although, I can’t speak for him.) Allahpundit is not a social con, therefore, he doesn’t agree with her. There’s a difference between not agreeing and hating.

Geez , it doesn’t seem like the media is letting the Palin-bashing slow down at all though. I saw a clip of Olbey on Martha “Cell 17″ Stewart and there was such a contrived q and a whos only purpose seemed to be a lead-in for Olbey to make fun of her turkey “THE HORROR” story.

Palin is a dead-end for the GOP, as she can’t reach out beyond the base she already appeals to. In case you hadn’t noticed, Obama did reach out by being a more centrist Democrat and it paid off for him in states like Indiana, Ohio and Virginia – states that the Republicans need to win in 2012 or 2016.

Anyone who believes this poll, also will believe Obama is a new kind of politician! ITS CNN people, they have proven that they are in the business of steering public opinion, not reporting it.

We need to start writing to the GOP, and get them to change things before 2012. They cannot use the same Primary system that was used in 2008. The dems, and media have figured out how to manipulate that system. Unless obama does everything he has promised, and really destroys the economy, he will not be contested in the dem primaries. That means all the dems will be free to go sabotage the GOP Primaries! So unless you want another McShame as the GOP candidate, contact the GOP ASAP, and demand reform!

I would recommend scrapping the whole primary system. Then just have elected GOP politicians( Gov.’s, Senators, Rep.’s), former elected office holders, and other top GOP contributors(proven GOP members) meet at a pre-convention convention to select a candidate. That would save a lot of money for the election, and eliminate a lot of soundbites that can be used against the candidate later. The average GOP supporter could still have influence by contacting their local GOP politicians, and campaining for their choice. Better than letting CNN choose!