Newport International Group

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Thematic investing, or investing based on emerging themes, is
fraught with some danger. Many people invest in the latest
hot theme and get burned soon enough. Others mindlessly put their money
into a company based on a theme without regard to valuation or quality of
management – another sure-fire way to end up in the red.

And let’s face it: the future is inherently uncertain. If picking
future investment themes was easy, everyone would be sipping piña coladas in
Bora Bora. The best investors know this and place their bets according to
probabilities. That is, they invest when the odds are in their favour and
invest large amounts when those odds offer significant upside with minimal
risk.

The question then becomes this: which investment themes might give
you the best odds of success over the next decade? It’s a tough question. If
there’s one thing for which I have a high degree of conviction, it’s that the
world is currently drowning in debt and that debt will need to be cut, one way
or another. If that’s right, you’ll want to avoid sectors which have benefited
most from the three decade long expansion in credit. The finance sector is an
obvious one and the bear market
here is likely to last decades. The tech sector is another – think of all the
tech start-ups and others which will evaporate when the silly venture
capitalists funding them don’t have access to cheap and abundant money. There
are many other sectors which will suffer too.

In other words, you’ll probably want investment exposure to themes
which may still thrive in a world of shrinking credit. There won’t be many of
them but Asia Confidential has a few ideas. Asian outbound tourism has been,
and should continue to be, a strong theme which transforms the global tourism
sector. Privatisation of state-owned assets appears a sure thing – in the
developed world as well as China – given bloated government balance sheets.
Acquirers with deep pockets should benefit. Low to mid-end consumption should
do well as developed world consumers tighten their belts while Asian ones start
to spend more with increased wages. Finally, gold is likely to thrive as the
credit boom turns to bust and faith in government policies and currencies is
shaken.

Asia outbound tourism

I remember doing a research report as a sell-side analyst in
Indonesia in early 2006 looking at the potential boom in visitors to the
beautiful beaches of Bali due to a growing influx of Chinese tourists. It was
considered then a far-flung theory as Bali was still suffering from a series of
terrorist bombings and Chinese tourists only accounted for about 6% of total
visitors to the island. Since then though, Balinese tourism has surged and the
Chinese have played a significant part in that. China now tops Japan as the
country with the second-largest number of visitors to Bali behind Australia.
And Chinese tourists account for nearly 12% of total visitors to the island,
double that of 2006.

Back then, there were no airlines offering direct flights from
China to Bali. Now there are several. That’s not counting the many charter
flights which the Chinese take to the island. In Bali today, there are also
slews of foot massage shops, jewellers, status artwork and other items catering
to Chinese consumers, Chinese restaurants and Chinese speaking guides.

These trends are not only happening in Bali, but in every tourist
destination across the world. Chinese tourists are driving growth and their
needs are being increasingly catered too. And those needs are very different to
tourists from the U.S., Europe or Japan. For instance, Chinese tourists spend
much more money on shopping vis-a-vis hotels. Various studies suggest two-thirds
of Chinese overseas tourists spend more than 20% of their budgets on shopping
with 25% spending greater than 50% of their budgets on shopping.

The trend of increasing Chinese outbound tourism looks set to
continue. In 2012, the Chinese outbound tourism market became the world’s
largest, moving ahead of the U.S. and Germany. The number of annual Chinese
outbound tourists now totals 83 million, up almost 8x since 2000.

The great thing about this trend is that it appears to be in its
infancy. Think about how the Japanese, having fully recovered from the ravages
of World War Two, took to the skies from the 1970s and transformed tourism
destinations such as Hawaii and Australia’s Gold Coast. They also transformed
the airlines, hotels, amusement parks, travel agents, restaurant chains, spa
and beach resorts as well as duty free stores which catered to them.

The same thing is likely to happen as China and other Asian
countries catch the travel bug. The companies which best fulfil their needs
will be big winners.

I like the Macau casino operators in the long-term even though
valuations are somewhat stretched at present. Macau accounts for almost 30% of
Chinese outbound tourism and that number should increase as transport
infrastructure to the territory improves. Among the casino companies,
U.S.-headquartered Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) is probably the pick of the
bunch.

I also like Hong Kong retailers as a play on Chinese tourism. Hong
Kong is still the dominant destination for Chinese tourists and is likely to
remain so. Though be wary of some of the high-end retailers who’ve benefited
from the lavish spending habits of corrupt Communist Party officials. That may
not last.

Finally, hotel operators with significant Asian exposure should do
well. Thailand conglomerate, Minor International (SET:MINT), is my preferred
stock in this space.

Privatisation of state-owned assets

In 2011, the world’s biggest private equity firms were busy
raising money to take advantage of over-indebted European countries needing to
shed state-owned assets to stay afloat. Wholesale asset sales never really
happened though as these countries papered over cracks, with the help of a few
trillion dollars from the European Central Bank.

Europe’s problems haven’t gone away though. And the problems
aren’t limited to Europe, as governments in the U.S., U.K, Japan and China have
similar issues. Put simply, all of them have too much government debt. And one
way or another, that debt will need to be cut back. Whether through
write-downs, austerity, inflation or a combination of all of them, the debt
will be reduced.

One way to cut debt is through the privatisation of state-owned
assets. I think that this will be one of the enduring investment themes of the
next decade. Ironically, it seems probable that the paragon of communism,
China, will be the first to accelerate the sale of government-owned assets in
an effort to reduce the influence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and
encourage competition.

Which companies will benefit from the broad-based sale of
state-owned assets? Well, most would point to private equity firms such as
Blackstone and TPG. But I’d suggest otherwise as these firms rely on outside
funds and in a credit-deprived world, these funds will dry up.

Instead, I’d look to conglomerates with deep pockets and minimal
debt to take advantage of asset sales. Some of the large North American
companies such as Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) and Brookfield Asset
Management (NYSE:BAM) should be in poll position.

In Asia, it’s a bit trickier as the private companies bidding on
state-owned assets will need high-level government connections to be
successful. Particularly in Japan and China.

Low to mid-end consumption

In the West, excess debt and declining real wages have resulted in
consumers cutting back on spending since 2008. That’s been bad for high-end
retailers but good for businesses such as dollar stores. It’s a trend which is
likely to continue for many years to come.

In Asia, the situation is very different. Consumer balance sheets
are in great shape, barring South Korea. Savings are abundant while debt is
minimal. Better yet, wages are growing rapidly, even in slowing economies such
as China, India and Indonesia. Excess savings and rising wages augur well for
future spending.

Moreover, you have countries such as China which are encouraging
people to spend more. It’s part of China’s strategy to re-balance its economy
away from being over-reliant on investment for economic growth.

As a consequence, low to mid-end consumer companies across the
globe are likely to do well going forward. In the developed world, consumers
will continue to trade down. In the developing world, you should have people
spending more, albeit still at the lower end given most of the region,
including China and India, remains poor.

I’m not an expert on consumer companies in the developed world but
discount operators should outperform from here. Dollar store companies in the
U.S., U.K. and Australia have recently underperformed on hopes of economic
recovery, which may provide some interesting potential entry points.

In my neighbourhood of Asia, Hong Kong headquartered, Giordano
(HKSE:709), is one of the best low-end clothing retailers in the region and is
inexpensive at current levels. Other exceptional consumer brands worth looking
at include Chinese beer giant, Tsingtao Brewery (HKSE:168), and Thailand
television operator, BEC World (BSE: BEC).

Gold

Long-time readers will know my preference for having gold in an
investment portfolio. Gold has two things going for it. First, if you think
that debt contraction is probable in future as I do, that brings risks to the
world’s financial system. After all, the still thinly-capitalised banks own
much of the debt which will need to be restructured/written down. Therefore,
it’s be wise to own assets which sit outside the financial system. That’s where
gold comes into play.

Secondly, the current policies of the world’s central banks may be
preventing the contraction in debt which needs to occur to cleanse the
financial system. In my view, central bank moves to reflate the credit bubble
are likely to lead to a larger credit bust down the track. In many ways, gold
is the anti-central bank. The less faith that you have in central banks, the
more gold that you should own.

As for the best ways to play gold, exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
and stocks both have counterparty risks, though I do find the latter attractive
given they’re arguably the most hated assets on the planet. Physical gold is my
preferred way to play this theme though as it’s the least risky of these
options.

Agriculture

If a prudent investment strategy involves holding physical assets
outside of the financial system, then agriculture should also be considered.
Unlike many of the hard commodities, agriculture has a serious supply-demand
imbalance which should result in prices remaining elevated for years to come.

Agriculture inventories are at multi-decade lows. That means
inventories are being drawn down as consumption exceeds production. Global
agricultural production has only increased by 2.1% per annum over the past
decade and the OECD forecasts that growth rate will decline to 1.5% over the
next ten years.

Meanwhile, demand continues to grow solidly primarily due to
growing populations, higher incomes and changing diets (higher calorific
intakes) in developing markets. On the latter, for example, it’s well known
that meat consumption increases as a country becomes wealthier. The OECD
predicts that the developing world will account for 80% of the growth in meat
consumption over the next decade.

While droughts in recent years and subsequent surges in
agricultural prices have grabbed television headlines, it’s worth remembering
that these events merely exacerbated the already tight supply in soft
commodities. And it seems that tight supply will only worsen unless there are
major technological breakthroughs to improve agricultural productivity.

As for where best to get investment exposure to agriculture, I’d
suggest you look at commodities where supply-demand imbalances may further
deteriorate, such as sugar, coffee and potash.

Infrastructure

In the U.S., good arguments have been made for an urgent upgrade
of creaking infrastructure. Increased spend on infrastructure could create
jobs, improve security at ports and electricity grids as well as keep the U.S.
competitive with China - all of which could be financed at exceedingly low
interest rates thanks to Mr Bernanke’s quackery. But political gridlock means
it probably won’t happen.

In the developing world, the problem is not of repairing
infrastructure, but building it. Some countries such as Singapore and China are
host to some of the world’s best highways, airports and ports. Others such as
India and Indonesia remain in the dark ages.

For instance, Indonesia spends just 1.7% of GDP on infrastructure,
compared to China’s 8%. More than 40% of Indonesia’s roads remain unpaved. The
country has only 11 miles of railway line per person, less than half that of
Thailand, India or China.

Anyone who’s been in a traffic jam in Jakarta can attest to the
underspend. Are traffic jams in Jakarta the worst of any capital city in the
world, I wonder?

The likes of Indonesia don’t have any choice but to improve
infrastructure, and fast. Otherwise, supply bottlenecks will choke economic
growth. The cement sector in Indonesia is an oligopoly and a great way to play
to the increased infrastructure spend to come. Indocement (JSE: INTP) is the
pick of the bunch.

Friday, 24 May 2013

Last night in
NYC, Ariana Rockefeller and Anna Chumsky stepped out for the 2013 New York City
Opera Spring Gala, Solange and Cam'ron got on the mic for the Boiler Room's DO
NOT DISTURB blowout party, The Pratt Institute honored Thom Brown with this
year's Fashion Visionary Award, and so much more!

Other details: W
Hotels of New York in collaboration with UK based underground music site Boiler
Room present, Do Not Disturb, an innovative series of unique live online
music broadcasts from each hotel's E-WOW
suite. The third and final event in the series which kicked off in London
and continued in Paris took place in the newly renovated W Times
Square EWOW Suite.

A select crowd gathered on the 57th floor of the hotel,
overlooking Times
Square. The night opened with of-the-moment producer Ryan
Hemsworth doing a back-to-back set with A$AP Mob
DJ J. Scott. Hip-hop legend Pete Rock was up next, before Mike
Q and Brenmar
did a back-to-back DJ set. During their set, pillows were being tossed around
and it quickly turned into a frenzied pillow fight. As the crowd began to get
antsy, Solange
came out to do a DJ set and kicked things off with crowd-pleaser
"Ignition" by R.
Kelly. In keeping with the night's theme, she played a string of hip-hop
and R&B songs. Finally, after much anticipation, headlining rapper Cam'ron
got on the mic. The exuberant crowd rapped-along to the lyrics as he delivered
a non-stop flurry of verses from his hit songs.

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

BAKING HOT IN COSTUMEas a human billboard, a character in his
upcoming film, isn’t strange at all to auteur Tsai Ming-liang. In fact, Tsai might
well be the only Golden Lion winner having to hawk tickets on the street to
extend his movie runs.

Though
Tsai enjoys the reputation of an internationally acclaimed filmmaker – winning
prestigious awards in Venice, Cannes and Berlin – his slow-paced, realism films
have not done as well as one might hope at the box office.

“Sometimes
I give two talks a day at schools or galleries so I can sell tickets,”
says the Malaysian-born, Taiwan-based filmmaker. “I need to sell 10,000 tickets
before the movie opens to ensure it will run in the cinema for at least two
weeks.”

Having
been in the industry for almost 30 years, the 56-year-old filmmaker
– one of the godfathers of Taiwan’s New Wave Cinema alongside the likes of
Edward Yang De-chang and Hou Hsiao-hsien – is ready to retire from the
silver screen.

“Making
movies is not the same as manufacturing products in a factory. All my stories
are original and I feel perhaps I’ve said enough.”

For
what could be Tsai’s swansong, the working-titledThe Diary of a Young
Boy unmistakably
has the filmmaker’s signature all over it. The story follows a jobless father,
whose wife leaves him and the children because of poverty. Failing to pay the
rent, the father is on the verge of being evicted.

The
underdog takes on the minimum-wage job of a human billboard
advertising luxurious condos. During his daily eight-hour stint, his
children spend the day in a nearby shopping mall filled with
scrumptiously packaged products.

“I
won’t regret it if this ends up being my last film. I’d rather it be my
last because I’ve never been freer,” Tsai says. “We wrote eight versions of the
script and made changes on set every day during filming to avoid
conventional storytelling.”

Tsai
first got the idea to develop the story about 10 years ago, when he noticed the
emergence of the so-called “sandwich men” bearing advertisements on their
bodies.

“I
was shocked that such a job even existed,” Tsai says. “The sad thing is we’ve
all seen him, but after a while, we stop having feelings for him. As a
filmmaker, I wish to bring such a character under the limelight.” Tsai has
consistently explored reality in his features – troubled youth wasting their
days at games arcades inRebels of the
Neon God, the confused and depressed couple inVive L’Amour,
the solitary and wounded son inThe River,
and the marginalised migrant worker inI Don’t Want
to Sleep Alone.

“I’m
not interested in filming the fabricated la dolce vita, the kind of processed
fantasy that the majority of the audience expect filmmakers to serve them
on a silver plate,” Tsai says. “Real-life events can be more cruel than
films can portray, but still I want to show a segment of that, even though few
people are willing to be confronted with it.”

Tsai’s
often abstract and subtle cinematic language is the opposite of commercial
films, yet he’s unapologetic about the grim grossing prospects.

“Commercial
power is so strong that it changes people’s habits and tastes,” Tsai says.
“There are so many commercial films that you don’t have time for anything else.
You are cut off, and in the end you won’t be able to tell what’s good and
what’s not.

“When
you consider film an art form, you don’t want to always please your audience.
You want to take them to the next level.

“I
can’t imagine myself making a commercial movie. In the 20 years of my career, I
never stopped looking for freedom. Without freedom, making a movie is like
making canned food – everything !tastes the same but comes in different
packaging. My movies are long-lasting and need to go !through fermentation.
It’s a slow process, but it’s always ongoing.”

Tsai’s
unparalleled style has earned him recognition at international film festivals
and from film institutions.

In
1994, hisVive L’Amour, depicting a love
triangle among three distraught city-dwellers sharing a flat, won the
prestigious Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival. His 2004 production,The Wayward
Cloud, controversial for its erotic portrayal of romance in the
time of drought, won numerous awards, including the FIPRESCI Award at the
Cannes Film Festival and the Silver Bear at the Berlin International Film
Festival.

Tsai
was knighted by the French government and was invited by the Louvre Museum to
filmFaceto
add to its official collection.

Face, an abstract interpretation of the Salomé myth
shot inside the Louvre, has a starry cast, including French new wave
giants Fanny Ardant, Jean-Pierre Leaud and model-turned-actress Laetitia Casta
and Lee Kang-sheng, who worked with Tsai in all his movies.Facestirred
up heated discussions in the film and the art industries.

MakingFacemade
Tsai realise possibilities larger than cinema. Art galleries and museums across
the globe offered to work with Tsai following the film’s release.

“It
was a turning point in my career,” Tsai says. “Being invited by the
Louvre gave me the recognition I longed for. It is clear that film can be
collected as an art piece.”

Having
tasted the hospitality of the art world, recent years have seen Tsai delving
into various areas, from art installations to musicals. Such interests
are likely to take up most of his time, post-cinema.

In
2007, Tsai explored the world of visual arts with an installation inspired by a
derelict cinema in Malaysia, as part of a group exhibition at the Venice
Biennale. The piece was consequently acquired by the Taipei Fine Arts Museum of
Taiwan.

Three
years ago, Tsai tried his hand at painting, which he had taught himself at an
installation exhibition in Taipei’s Xue Xue Institute. He found 49 used
and abandoned chairs, captured the images with oil paint strokes and juxtaposed
the actual furniture against the painting.

He
used a similar concept a year later, and transformed a boiler room
established in 1937 under Japanese colonial rule into a theatre for his
installations. 2Next year, his film retrospectives and art installations will
also be shown in museums in Vienna and Brussels.

Tsai
reckons that museums, galleries and even universities could be the alternative
distribution channels to cinemas.

The
filmmaker has been trying to break out of the system with his recent dealing ofFace’s
DVD rights. Instead of mass production, Tsai made only 10 copies of the
DVD.

Each
comes with a wooded box hand-painted by himself and priced at NT$1million
(about HK$260,000). “I want it to be appreciated as an artwork.
That way, it will be preserved and seen by a proper audience,” he says.

Tsai
has also been pushing the boundaries through his recent experimental short
films, includingWalker, a 20-minute short,
as part of Beautiful 2012, produced by Youku, China’s internet television site,
alongside three other Asian filmmakers – Gu Changwei from Beijing, Ann! Hui
On-wa from Hong Kong and Kim Tae-yong from Seoul.

The
video, completely stripped of dialogue and plot, follows a red-robed monk
walking at snail’s pace in the midst of Hong Kong’s bustling streets.

Walkergarnered mixed reviews. Many critics
found it impossible to understand the filmmaker’s message.

“Pieces
likeWalkerare
truly precious to me. I don’t think I had the courage to make such pieces
before I turned 50,” he says.

“I
have my own messages, and I don’t want to deliver them bluntly.”

Tsai
is planning to make moreWalkerepisodes
in different cities – his hometown in Malaysia and France could be the next
destinations.

“I
feel like filming a modern-day Monk Xuanzang, who keeps moving forward just out
of good will,” he says. “So, in the next 10 years, we’ll be walking. I
don’t know what to expect, but I think it’s much better than making boring
storytelling dramas. I want children to grow up with a variety of films, not
just the commercial kinds.”