740
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region. The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.
Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is not going to last long. Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th. A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region. The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon. This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area. The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front. Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High WindWatch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.
Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms. As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region. Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed. Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
70
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050
FXUS64 KMAF 032055
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region. The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.
Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is not going to last long. Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th. A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region. The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon. This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area. The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front. Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High WindWatch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.
Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms. As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region. Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed. Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 45 47 22 38 / 50 50 30 10
BIG SPRING TX 45 46 22 37 / 40 50 40 10
CARLSBAD NM 43 55 25 39 / 30 30 30 10
DRYDEN TX 51 64 31 43 / 30 40 40 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 48 56 25 39 / 50 40 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 47 18 34 / 30 30 30 10
HOBBS NM 43 45 20 38 / 30 40 30 10
MARFA TX 40 56 24 38 / 40 40 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 47 48 23 38 / 50 50 30 10
ODESSA TX 47 49 22 38 / 50 50 30 10
WINK TX 46 53 26 39 / 50 40 30 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
10/72
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842
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region? Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning. Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region. Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now. Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.
An extensive fetch of mid and upper levelmoisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwavetrough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area. Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide. As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwavetrough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.
The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it. High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening. The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too. It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front. Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first. Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain. The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening. The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great. Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great. Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday. We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time. High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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330
FXUS64 KMAF 031423
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Mainly IFR conditions are expected in low ceilings and or fog
through mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected
to develop areawide by late morning and continue this afternoon
through this evening. A TEMPO or PROB30 group for VFR conditions
in showers was placed in the TAFS late this afternoon and this
evening.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region? Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning. Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region. Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now. Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.
An extensive fetch of mid and upper levelmoisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwavetrough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area. Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide. As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwavetrough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.
The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it. High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening. The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too. It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front. Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first. Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain. The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening. The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great. Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great. Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday. We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time. High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 47 48 22 / 20 50 50 30
BIG SPRING TX 69 48 48 22 / 10 40 50 30
CARLSBAD NM 70 46 54 25 / 20 30 30 30
DRYDEN TX 70 54 66 31 / 0 30 40 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 75 50 55 23 / 10 50 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 59 43 47 18 / 30 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 65 43 47 19 / 20 30 40 30
MARFA TX 66 42 58 25 / 20 40 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 50 50 23 / 10 50 50 30
ODESSA TX 70 50 50 22 / 20 50 40 30
WINK TX 69 50 53 26 / 20 50 40 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
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261
FXUS64 KMAF 031146
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly IFR conditions are expected in low ceilings and or fog
through mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected
to develop areawide by late morning and continue this afternoon
through this evening. A TEMPO or PROB30 group for VFR conditions
in showers was placed in the TAFS late this afternoon and this
evening.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region? Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning. Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region. Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now. Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.
An extensive fetch of mid and upper levelmoisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwavetrough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area. Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide. As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwavetrough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.
The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it. High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening. The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too. It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front. Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first. Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain. The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening. The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great. Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great. Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday. We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time. High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
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990
FXUS64 KMAF 031028
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region? Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning. Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region. Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now. Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.
An extensive fetch of mid and upper levelmoisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwavetrough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area. Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide. As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwavetrough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.
The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it. High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening. The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too. It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front. Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first. Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain. The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening. The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great. Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great. Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday. We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time. High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 47 48 22 / 20 50 50 30
BIG SPRING TX 69 48 48 22 / 10 40 50 30
CARLSBAD NM 70 46 54 25 / 20 30 30 30
DRYDEN TX 70 54 66 31 / 0 30 40 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 75 50 55 23 / 10 50 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 59 43 47 18 / 30 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 65 43 47 19 / 20 30 40 30
MARFA TX 66 42 58 25 / 20 40 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 50 50 23 / 10 50 50 30
ODESSA TX 70 50 50 22 / 20 50 40 30
WINK TX 69 50 53 26 / 20 50 40 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/67
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656
FXUS64 KMAF 030530 CCA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
FG has settled in at MAF and looks to be here thru the night,
elsewhere FG/BR is slower to develop, but will eventually. As such
we have brought CIGS/VSBY down to at least IFR MAF/HOB and MVFR
elsewhere. SW winds will develop in low levels and clear out the
CIGS and VSBY mid morning, but mid clouds will hang around. Also
PROB30 -SHRA has been introduced in last 4-6hrs of fcst.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFRvsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.
I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.
Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normaldiurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.
Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 66 41 43 / 0 10 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 38 68 43 43 / 10 10 30 50
CARLSBAD NM 39 66 39 50 / 20 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 43 69 48 61 / 10 0 20 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 41 72 46 53 / 10 10 40 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 57 37 48 / 30 20 20 30
HOBBS NM 36 62 37 41 / 10 10 10 40
MARFA TX 39 65 40 56 / 10 30 40 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 36 68 43 46 / 10 10 30 40
ODESSA TX 36 67 44 47 / 0 10 30 40
WINK TX 39 69 43 51 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/99
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941
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFRvsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.
I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.
Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normaldiurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.
Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 66 41 43 / 0 10 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 38 68 43 43 / 10 10 30 50
CARLSBAD NM 39 66 39 50 / 20 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 43 69 48 61 / 10 0 20 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 41 72 46 53 / 10 10 40 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 57 37 48 / 30 20 20 30
HOBBS NM 36 62 37 41 / 10 10 10 40
MARFA TX 39 65 40 56 / 10 30 40 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 36 68 43 46 / 10 10 30 40
ODESSA TX 36 67 44 47 / 0 10 30 40
WINK TX 39 69 43 51 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/99
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028
FXUS64 KMAF 030243
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Ran a quick forecast update to increase PoPs over western zones
through 12Z where a deep plume of subtropical moisture continues
to stream over the region. Light radar echoes indicating maybe
some very light showers across these areas and to the west look to
continue overnight. IR satellite shows cooler cloud tops to the SW
of the Rio Grande moving toward these areas therefore continuing
light rain through early morning. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast package looks to be on track and no other changes were
needed at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFRvsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.
I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.
Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normaldiurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.
Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 66 41 43 / 0 10 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 38 68 43 43 / 10 10 30 50
CARLSBAD NM 39 66 39 50 / 20 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 43 69 48 61 / 10 0 20 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 41 72 46 53 / 10 10 40 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 57 37 48 / 30 20 20 30
HOBBS NM 36 62 37 41 / 10 10 10 40
MARFA TX 39 65 40 56 / 10 30 40 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 36 68 43 46 / 10 10 30 40
ODESSA TX 36 67 44 47 / 0 10 30 40
WINK TX 39 69 43 51 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/99
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440
FXUS64 KMAF 022347
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Visible satellite show wrn edge of low clouds from CNM to PEQ to FST
are slowly lifting and may temporarily break. Meanwhile IFR CIGS are
at MAF/CNM/PEQ with MVFRvsby at MAF attm. 00Z MAF sounding shows
little change in moisture depth and seems to be little chance that
clouds will break here. Concern for the night is how low will
CIGS/VSBY go. Models have done terrible job last few days and will
continue with more of persistence forecast noting that T/Td spread
are a little greater than previous 24hrs indicating development of
lower vsby may be delayed a few hrs. Based on better established
low level w-sw flow Tue low clouds will break tmw, but after 15Z.
However it will still be mostly cloudy with IR satellite showing
extensive mid clouds. Precip will probably hold off the w thru
00Z/Wed but may not be too far from CNM/PEQ.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.
I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.
Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normaldiurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.
Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.
Hennig
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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109
FXUS64 KMAF 022057
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Fog and low clouds have once again held in place keeping
temperatures well below normal across the area. Fortunately most
locations have risen above freezing, and with the help of
increasing southerly flow temperatures should continue to climb
eliminating the threat for freezing fog and any ice accumulation.
I know we keep saying this, but tomorrow we should finally see a
significant warm up with temperatures reaching into the 60s.
Models suggest temperatures could be even warmer but mostly cloudy
skies may limit daytime heating. An upper level low will move east
into Mexico and combined with a right entrance jet region over
west Texas will provide enough instability for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all precipitation to remain
liquid.
Wednesday will be a different story as the next strong cold front
arrives. High temperatures will be seen east of the Pecos River
Wednesday morning and steadily fall through the afternoon and
night while highs west of the Pecos will be seen closer to their
normaldiurnal time. Temperatures behind the front will quickly
fall below freezing meaning precipitation will change from rain,
to freezing rain/sleet/snow as the surface cold pool deepens and
the elevated warm layer erodes throughout the day. The best chance
for precipitation will be immediately behind the front where
isentropic lift will be greatest, then will diminish overnight as
low level lift diminishes and the upper jet moves east. The
biggest threat right now appears to be ice accumulation from
freezing rain and sleet making roads hazardous.
Thursday will be the coldest day with a slow warming trend
expected Friday into the weekend. The main forecast concern for
the weekend will be the speed of an upper ridge over the western
U.S. Current models show this feature to be slow moving which
could delay the warm southerly return flow and prolong cold
temperatures currently forecast.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 38 66 41 43 / 10 10 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 39 68 43 43 / 10 10 30 50
CARLSBAD NM 39 66 39 50 / 10 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 43 69 48 61 / 10 0 20 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 43 72 46 53 / 10 10 40 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 46 57 37 48 / 20 20 20 30
HOBBS NM 36 62 37 41 / 10 10 10 40
MARFA TX 39 65 40 56 / 10 30 40 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 40 68 43 46 / 10 10 30 40
ODESSA TX 40 67 44 47 / 10 10 30 40
WINK TX 39 69 43 51 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/10
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459
FXUS64 KMAF 021735
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Updating forecast to lower high temps across SE NM and the Permian
Basin once again for this afternoon. No breaks in the clouds are
expected and our warming trend will be very slow.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Same story different day. LIFR cigs are once again locked in
across the area with clear skies just to the west of the terminals.
However...like previous days the models have not done well with
the clouds and fog and try to erode it too quickly. Will opt to
keep conditions MVFR or lower through Tuesday morning.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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506
FXUS64 KMAF 021131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Low ceilings and visibilities are expected to last through this
morning with gradual improvement around 18z. Fog and freezing fog
are also possible this morning. VFR conditions should return to the
area by 22z. There is a possibility of low ceilings and
visibilities after 00z for some of the terminals. Winds will remain
fairly light throughout the period and will become easterly then
southeasterly by 00z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Pessimism and persistence rule, as much of West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain socked in w/stratus and fog. Current sfcobs show
this backed up against the mtns, w/widespread FZFG over much of the
Permian Basin and Wrn Low Rolling Plains. However, w/temps only
near freezing (as opposed to well-blo the last few days), we`ll
continue to handle these hazards in the HWO and with an SPS. Over
the past few days, models have been way too optimistic in scattering
things out by late morning/early afternoon, yet this has not panned
out. Although sfcflow will veer to SE later today, we`re not
betting on things improving appreciably, and so have stuck to the
lower end of guidance on temps. Sfc winds will continue veering to
SW overnight as a sfctrough over CO moves out into the Central
Plains. An upper trough making landfall on SoCal will begin sending
disturbances thru SW flow aloft as soon as tonight, favoring
isolated -SHRA omtns out west.
Tuesday, w/SW flow at the sfc, a downslope warming component and
decreasing clouds should allow temps to warm to above normal for the
first time in awhile. However, some high clouds will still be
present and, w/all the precip of the past few days and saturated
soils, warming will be retarded somewhat. Therefore, we again
prefer to stay on the lower end of guidance temps. Meanwhile, the
west coast trough will dig down to Baja, open, and move thru Sonora
towards the region. Ahead of this feature, a sfctrough and
shortwave will move thru West Texas Tuesday night, w/forecast
soundings showing enough moisture/instability down south for a
mention of isolatedthunder.
Wednesday, winter returns as a strong cold front moves thru the
area. The GFS is fastest, w/fropa at KMAF at around 14Z, followed
by the NAM at 18Z, and the ECMWF after. Using a blend, temps will
drop throughout the day in the NE, w/a normaldiurnal curve down by
the Rio Grande. As the front moves SW, overrunning will commence as
winds begin to veer, w/a changeover to winter precip in the NE
beginning as soon as 18Z Wednesday. Unfortunately, this far out,
models are in big disagreement over several factor which will
determine type/extent of the winter precip. For one, as noted
above, models differ on timing of the front, and also on strength.
But the biggest difference is vertical saturation of the column.
The NAM soundings portray rather shallow moisture, favoring a
rain/freezing rain scenario, whereas the GFS saturates the column
deeply and well through the dendritic growth zones, favoring
sleet/snow. This far out, we`ll not get too specific yet, as models
will/should come more in agreement as the event
nears.
Otherwise, this should taper off over the SW zones Thursday, w/a
slow warmup thru Sunday, but temps should stay blonormal in dry, NW
flow aloft.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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395
FXUS64 KMAF 021110
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Pessimism and persistence rule, as much of West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico remain socked in w/stratus and fog. Current sfcobs show
this backed up against the mtns, w/widespread FZFG over much of the
Permian Basin and Wrn Low Rolling Plains. However, w/temps only
near freezing (as opposed to well-blo the last few days), we`ll
continue to handle these hazards in the HWO and with an SPS. Over
the past few days, models have been way too optimistic in scattering
things out by late morning/early afternoon, yet this has not panned
out. Although sfcflow will veer to SE later today, we`re not
betting on things improving appreciably, and so have stuck to the
lower end of guidance on temps. Sfc winds will continue veering to
SW overnight as a sfctrough over CO moves out into the Central
Plains. An upper trough making landfall on SoCal will begin sending
disturbances thru SW flow aloft as soon as tonight, favoring
isolated -SHRA omtns out west.
Tuesday, w/SW flow at the sfc, a downslope warming component and
decreasing clouds should allow temps to warm to above normal for the
first time in awhile. However, some high clouds will still be
present and, w/all the precip of the past few days and saturated
soils, warming will be retarded somewhat. Therefore, we again
prefer to stay on the lower end of guidance temps. Meanwhile, the
west coast trough will dig down to Baja, open, and move thru Sonora
towards the region. Ahead of this feature, a sfctrough and
shortwave will move thru West Texas Tuesday night, w/forecast
soundings showing enough moisture/instability down south for a
mention of isolatedthunder.
Wednesday, winter returns as a strong cold front moves thru the
area. The GFS is fastest, w/fropa at KMAF at around 14Z, followed
by the NAM at 18Z, and the ECMWF after. Using a blend, temps will
drop throughout the day in the NE, w/a normaldiurnal curve down by
the Rio Grande. As the front moves SW, overrunning will commence as
winds begin to veer, w/a changeover to winter precip in the NE
beginning as soon as 18Z Wednesday. Unfortunately, this far out,
models are in big disagreement over several factor which will
determine type/extent of the winter precip. For one, as noted
above, models differ on timing of the front, and also on strength.
But the biggest difference is vertical saturation of the column.
The NAM soundings portray rather shallow moisture, favoring a
rain/freezing rain scenario, whereas the GFS saturates the column
deeply and well through the dendritic growth zones, favoring
sleet/snow. This far out, we`ll not get too specific yet, as models
will/should come more in agreement as the event
nears.
Otherwise, this should taper off over the SW zones Thursday, w/a
slow warmup thru Sunday, but temps should stay blonormal in dry, NW
flow aloft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 45 38 69 43 / 10 10 10 20
BIG SPRING TX 42 41 69 44 / 10 10 10 30
CARLSBAD NM 48 39 70 42 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN TX 51 43 71 51 / 10 10 10 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 50 43 72 47 / 10 10 10 50
GUADALUPE PASS TX 52 46 59 42 / 10 10 20 30
HOBBS NM 45 36 63 39 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA TX 69 39 66 38 / 10 10 10 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 45 40 70 44 / 10 10 10 30
ODESSA TX 46 40 68 44 / 10 10 10 30
WINK TX 50 39 72 44 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
80/44
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420
FXUS64 KMAF 020523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours continues to be low
cigs/vis affecting terminals overnight and Monday morning. Currently
looking at IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but CNM this evening,
however CNM should drop to LIFR a bit later. Poor flight conditions
will continue through Monday morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Could see vis 1/2-1/4SM at times, particularly at
HOB/MAF/FST but for now will only carry 1-2SM attm. Initially
thought temperatures would hold above freezing overnight but HOB and
MAF are currently sitting at 32. Will hold off on including mention
of FZFG for now, but will continue to monitor trends and amend if
temps decrease further. Otherwise, conditions may finally improve at
most sites Monday afternoon.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day. This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses. As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures. The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.
Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area. This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA. However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds. These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup. Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.
This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue an
SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.
Monday appears to be another day similar to today. It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.
As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains. This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area. We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time. Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday. Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG. While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.
Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.
While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected. It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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752
FXUS64 KMAF 012342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vis
once again overnight into Monday morning. Generally have MVFR/IFR
flight conditions at all but CNM this evening, where brief VFR
conditions should return to MVFR by 02/06Z. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate over the next several hours and most terminals can
expect LIFR while FST and PEQ (being on the western edge of the low
level moisture) may hold at IFR. It is quite possible that conditions
will deteriorate faster than currently anticipated so will continue
to monitor trends and amend if needed. Could see vis as low as 1/4SM
at times, particularly at HOB and MAF but for now will only carry
1/2SM at these locations. Temperatures are expected to hold above
freezing overnight, therefore FZFG is not a concern. Otherwise,
conditions may finally improve to VFR at most sites Monday
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day. This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses. As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures. The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.
Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area. This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA. However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds. These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup. Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.
This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue
an SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.
Monday appears to be another day similar to today. It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.
As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains. This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area. We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time. Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday. Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG. While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.
Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.
While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected. It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
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763
FXUS64 KMAF 012124
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have persisted throughout the day. This is not
surprising considering the difficulties associated with scouring out
shallow cold air masses. As a general rule, it is usually necessary
to see surface pressure falls north of the area along with a wind
shift to more a southeast to south component before we see
decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures. The computer
models usually try to move the cold air out earlier than it should,
resulting in the forecast being too warm.
Only in the last couple hours have we seen surface pressure falls
north of the area. This is way too late in the day to be of much
help for the central and eastern portions of the CWA. However, we
can see on visible satellite were southeast New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos are seeing decreasing clouds. These areas should see a
late afternoon warmup. Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed
plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into
the lower 70s.
This evening and overnight, we should see surface high pressure
build back into areas east of the mountains. We would expect to
see redevelopment of fog over a large area along an east of the
mountains. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the
CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is
included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas
Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight
with little if any accumulation expected. We have opted to issue
an SPS instead of going with another Winter Weather Advisory as impacts
are expected to be less than in previous days.
Monday appears to be another day similar to today. It will take
some time to scour out the cold air, perhaps less time than today.
So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to
go on the low end of temperature guidance.
As the surface ridge finally moves east of the area on Tuesday, it
is replaced in this progressive pattern with surface low pressure
over the Central Plains. This should lead to a rather marked warmup
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s across
the area with downslope southwest to west surface winds forecast
across the area. We really don`t get rid of our mid level moisture
ahead of the next upper level system located just west of Baja at
that time. Thus, we still have a shot at precipitation on Tuesday,
especially during the evening and overnight early Wednesday. Most
unstable CAPE values Tuesday evening over southwest Texas are on the
order of 500 J/KG. While not an overwhelming value, we can`t rule
out the possibility of a thunderstorm during that time period.
Another cold front is expected to make its way into the area on
Wednesday morning. The NAM is noticeable slower in moving this
front into area as opposed to the GFS. However, regardless of
model, we eventually seem poised for another winter weather event
on Wednesday. While not yet indicated in the forecast, it is
likely that temperatures will fall throughout the day on
Wednesday with snow possible across a good portion of the area. As
the models come closer into alignment the next couple days, it
will become more clear as to what Wednesday`s weather has to
offer.
While a gradual warmup is expected Thursday into next weekend, below
normal temperatures are still expected. It appears that winter
still has somewhat of a hold on the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 45 39 69 / 20 20 20 0
BIG SPRING TX 34 41 41 73 / 20 20 20 0
CARLSBAD NM 40 53 44 71 / 10 10 20 10
DRYDEN TX 46 55 47 76 / 10 10 20 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 43 53 48 76 / 10 10 20 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 36 52 43 61 / 10 10 30 20
HOBBS NM 35 43 38 65 / 20 20 20 0
MARFA TX 34 69 40 69 / 0 0 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 38 43 41 73 / 20 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 37 47 43 71 / 10 10 20 0
WINK TX 45 52 40 74 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/03
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239
FXUS64 KMAF 011736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Difficult TAF forecast once again today. Low clouds and fog
continue to hang in tough and don`t expect much change again today
except along the western edge of the clouds. KCNM and KFST may see
brief improvement before low clouds and fog spread back to the west
this evening. Will keep IFR and LIFR conditions prevailing through
this TAF period with cigs lowering and fog increasing this evening.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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260
FXUS64 KMAF 011117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
517 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Another night in the soup, w/sfcobs showing LIFR conditions all
terminals except KPEQ, which is IFR at the moment. Skies were slow
to improve over the last 24 hrs, if at all, a/the models doing a
poor job handling this. Models want to scatter things out to VFR a
little too optimistically. W/sfcflowbacking slightly over the
next 24 hours, this is doubtful. Cigs should improve somewhat
today...but we`ll keep all terminals at least MVFR or lower.
Stratus/fog redevelops after sunset, returning conditions to
IFR/LIFR most terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most
locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Skies
remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog
across the area. A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9 am
this morning for the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains. The drizzle and fog are expected to clear out by
this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm up slightly today
but will still remain well below normal with cloudy skies across at
least the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. The models did not handle
yesterday`s high temperatures well so went below guidance on today`s
highs for at least the eastern half of the CWA.
An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper
flow being westerly to southwesterly. The upper trough will get
closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase. Low level
moisture will also increase across the area tonight so rain chances
will increase tonight. There is a slight chance of freezing rain
and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of
southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures
across this area drop to near or below freezing. High temperatures
on Monday are expected to increase slightly from those the previous
day but will still remain cool as skies will be cloudy with a chance
of rain in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm up significantly
on Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the area with
elevated westerly winds contributing to downslope warming. There is
a slight chance of rain for locations generally along and west of
the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday. The elongated upper trough will
be about to move over the area on Wednesday with a cold front
pushing through the area. Temperatures will once again plummet into
the 30s and 40s for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
behind the front. Precipitation chances will increase across the
CWA on Wednesday with snow possible across the northeast Permian
Basin, rain possible further south, and thunderstorms possible
across the Big Bend area and Presidio Valley. Precipitation amounts
on the GFS and ECMWF Wednesday afternoon look to be quite
impressive, especially along and south of the Pecos River.
Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and move southward
on Thursday as temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the
whole CWA. Warmer and drier conditions are expected heading into
next weekend.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
Reagan...Scurry.
&&
$$
44
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124
FXUS64 KMAF 011115
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures this morning are at or below freezing for most
locations across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Skies
remain cloudy with light freezing drizzle and patchy freezing fog
across the area. A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9 am
this morning for the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains. The drizzle and fog are expected to clear out by
this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm up slightly today
but will still remain well below normal with cloudy skies across at
least the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. The models did not handle
yesterday`s high temperatures well so went below guidance on today`s
highs for at least the eastern half of the CWA.
An upper trough is just off the coast of California with the upper
flow being westerly to southwesterly. The upper trough will get
closer to the region allowing upper lift to increase. Low level
moisture will also increase across the area tonight so rain chances
will increase tonight. There is a slight chance of freezing rain
and sleet across the northern Permian Basin and portions of
southeast New Mexico tonight into Monday morning as temperatures
across this area drop to near or below freezing. High temperatures
on Monday are expected to increase slightly from those the previous
day but will still remain cool as skies will be cloudy with a chance
of rain in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm up significantly
on Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the area with
elevated westerly winds contributing to downslope warming. There is
a slight chance of rain for locations generally along and west of
the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday. The elongated upper trough will
be about to move over the area on Wednesday with a cold front
pushing through the area. Temperatures will once again plummet into
the 30s and 40s for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
behind the front. Precipitation chances will increase across the
CWA on Wednesday with snow possible across the northeast Permian
Basin, rain possible further south, and thunderstorms possible
across the Big Bend area and Presidio Valley. Precipitation amounts
on the GFS and ECMWF Wednesday afternoon look to be quite
impressive, especially along and south of the Pecos River.
Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and move southward
on Thursday as temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the
whole CWA. Warmer and drier conditions are expected heading into
next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 39 34 46 39 / 0 20 30 20
BIG SPRING TX 38 32 45 40 / 10 30 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 61 38 55 44 / 0 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 62 46 58 50 / 0 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 57 37 55 47 / 0 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 38 58 43 / 0 20 20 30
HOBBS NM 40 33 46 38 / 0 20 20 20
MARFA TX 71 34 68 40 / 0 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 40 34 46 40 / 10 20 30 20
ODESSA TX 41 34 46 40 / 10 20 30 20
WINK TX 52 36 52 40 / 0 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...
Reagan...Scurry.
&&
$$
44/80
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721
FXUS64 KMAF 010513
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through Sunday morning as well as
FZFG affecting some locations through morning. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions across the board tonight with light
easterly winds in place. Low level moisture will remain in place
through morning with deteriorating cig/vislikely over the next
several hours. Could see vis as low as 1/4SM at times, particularly
at HOB and MAF. Dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition
to some possible -FZDZ will likely result in icing problems for both
planes and runways overnight. Have included mention of FZFG at HOB
and MAF while other terminals may remain too warm. Otherwise,
conditions are finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to extend WSW for Lea County and most
the PB, except the west.
DISCUSSION...
Models are struggling hard with the cold shallow airmass and are
generally way too way warm, at least in most of the areas where
the advisory has been extended. 00Z MAF sounding indicates
saturated conditions in cold air thru 85h, with abrupt drying
above 85h. Vsby has been decreasing since 3 PM at MAF and Andrews
observation is now reporting FZDZ/FZFG with vsby 1/2SM.
Accordingly so, based mainly on persistence and short-term trends, we
decided to extended winter wx advisory in said areas.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.
For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper levelflow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.
Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Martin...Midland...Upton.
&&
$$
44
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199
FXUS64 KMAF 010011 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to extend WSW for Lea County and most
the PB, except the west.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models are struggling hard with the cold shallow airmass and are
generally way too way warm, at least in most of the areas where
the advisory has been extended. 00Z MAF sounding indicates
saturated conditions in cold air thru 85h, with abrupt drying
above 85h. Vsby has been decreasing since 3 PM at MAF and Andrews
observation is now reporting FZDZ/FZFG with vsby 1/2SM.
Accordingly so, based mainly on persistence and short-term trends, we
decided to extended winter wx advisory in said areas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.
For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper levelflow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.
Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 57 30 46 / 10 0 30 30
BIG SPRING TX 30 53 31 46 / 10 10 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 32 62 34 56 / 10 0 20 30
DRYDEN TX 34 61 41 58 / 10 0 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 31 66 37 54 / 10 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 60 34 58 / 10 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 28 55 31 44 / 10 0 30 30
MARFA TX 28 71 33 68 / 10 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 59 34 48 / 10 0 30 30
ODESSA TX 31 54 34 48 / 10 0 30 30
WINK TX 34 63 36 54 / 10 0 20 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Martin...Midland...Upton.
&&
$$
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323
FXUS64 KMAF 282346
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period and
possible -FZDZ/FZFG through the morning hours. Generally have
IFR/LIFR flight conditions at all but INK and FST where conditions
have briefly improved to MVFR over the last hour or two. INK/FST
will return to IFR/LIFR respectively by 03-04Z. Low level moisture
will remain in place now through much of Sunday morning with
deteriorating cig/vis overnight. May have been too conservative with
vis and some places could see <1/2SM at times early Sunday morning.
Regardless, dense fog with freezing temps in place in addition to
some possible -FZDZ could result in icing problems for both planes
and runways overnight. For now, will keep mention of freezing precip
out of the TAF and amend if needed. Otherwise, conditions are
finally expected to improve to VFR Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.
For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper levelflow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
texas and southeast New Mexico.
Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.
Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Loving...Martin...
Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
27
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171
FXUS64 KMAF 282105
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.
For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper levelflow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
texas and southeast New Mexico.
Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.
Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 57 30 46 / 10 0 30 30
BIG SPRING TX 30 53 31 46 / 10 10 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 32 62 34 56 / 10 0 20 30
DRYDEN TX 34 61 41 58 / 10 0 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 31 66 37 54 / 10 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 60 34 58 / 10 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 28 55 31 44 / 10 0 30 30
MARFA TX 28 71 33 68 / 10 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 59 34 48 / 10 0 30 30
ODESSA TX 31 54 34 48 / 10 0 30 30
WINK TX 34 63 36 54 / 10 0 20 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Loving...Martin...
Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
29/12
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185
FXUS64 KMAF 281720
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1120 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Freezing drizzle and fog continue across most of the region with
IFR and LIFR conditions. Some improvement is expected this
afternoon, but conditions will again deteriorate this evening as
low clouds and fog redevelop. IFR and LIFR cigs are expected with
vsbys possible below 3SM at times. Conditions should improve
Sunday afternoon.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
29
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540
FXUS64 KMAF 281532
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
932 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.UPDATE...
Updating the forecast to lower high temperatures back into the
20`s and 30`s for most areas this afternoon. Clouds and heavy
freezing drizzle look to hang on most of the day for the Permian
Basin and SE NM which should keep temps from moving too much. Will
also extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST as travel
condition will continue to be hazardous.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.
AVIATION...
Current sfcobs show stratus and fog socked in this AM, w/all
terminals under IFR and VLIFR conditions. Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the area...in the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough. Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18Z, w/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22Z time frame as sfcflow veers to SE. However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight. Buffer soundings try to
develop VLIFR cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we`ll go
no lower than LIFRattm.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies. Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area. Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight. Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming. There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region. The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night. The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday. There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 30 66 37 / 30 10 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 30 30 64 37 / 30 10 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 33 33 68 43 / 20 10 0 20
DRYDEN TX 45 42 70 53 / 20 10 0 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 30 30 71 46 / 20 10 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 41 39 65 40 / 20 10 0 20
HOBBS NM 28 28 65 37 / 20 10 0 20
MARFA TX 60 28 72 36 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 31 67 39 / 30 10 0 20
ODESSA TX 31 31 67 40 / 30 10 0 20
WINK TX 34 34 69 42 / 20 10 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
29/99
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184
FXUS64 KMAF 281058
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Current sfcobs show stratus and fog socked in this AM, w/all
terminals under IFR and VLIFR conditions. Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the area...in the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough. Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18Z, w/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22Z time frame as sfcflow veers to SE. However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight. Buffer soundings try to
develop VLIFR cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we`ll go
no lower than LIFRattm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies. Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area. Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight. Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming. There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region. The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night. The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday. There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
44
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956
FXUS64 KMAF 281052
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies. Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the CWA and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and the Trans Pecos area. Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern CWA
through tonight. Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming. There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region. The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night. The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday. There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 41 36 66 37 / 30 10 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 42 36 64 37 / 30 10 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 51 33 68 43 / 20 10 0 20
DRYDEN TX 51 42 70 53 / 20 10 0 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 57 38 71 46 / 20 10 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 51 39 65 40 / 20 10 0 20
HOBBS NM 40 34 65 37 / 20 10 0 20
MARFA TX 62 28 72 36 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 44 38 67 39 / 30 10 0 20
ODESSA TX 45 39 67 40 / 30 10 0 20
WINK TX 51 37 69 42 / 20 10 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock... Guadalupe
Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
44/80
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991
FXUS64 KMAF 280521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period with
-FZDZ through early morning. Generally have IFR/LIFR flight
conditions at all but CNM where MVFR continues this evening however
this should be short-lived and CNM is expected to join the others
soon. Although non of the surface obs around the region are
currently reporting -FZDZ, local radar suggests otherwise. Will
continue mention of at least periods of -FZDZ through at least
mid/late morning Saturday which will likely result in slick runways
during this time. Will continue to monitor current trends and
amend if/when needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and
eventually VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt tonight will
veer to the SE Saturday morning and become somewhat gusty at FST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
UPDATE...
Overnight lows have been lowered generally from mountains
eastward. Sleet removed all areas. Areas of freezing drizzle and
fog have been expanded to include mountain areas.
DISCUSSION...
The 00Z sounding showed boundary layer running somewhat cooler
than NAM BUFR soundings forecast at MAF. Surface temperatures have
also failed to warm up late this afternoon, leaving actual
temperatures below the overnight lows previously forecast across
much of the area. Though warm air advection will increase
overnight with a modest low level jet, warmer temperatures aloft
will have trouble mixing down to the surface. Expecting temperatures
to hold nearly stead through evening or possibly dropping slightly
followed by a slight warm up after midnight. Also appears that
sleet is not likely with no instability or source of significant
lift.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VISLIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.
A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION. WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
44
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306
FXUS64 KMAF 280137
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
737 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.UPDATE...
Overnight lows have been lowered generally from mountains
eastward. Sleet removed all areas. Areas of freezing drizzle and
fog have been expanded to include mountain areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z sounding showed boundary layer running somewhat cooler
than NAM BUFR soundings forecast at MAF. Surface temperatures have
also failed to warm up late this afternoon, leaving actual
temperatures below the overnight lows previously forecast across
much of the area. Though warm air advection will increase
overnight with a modest low level jet, warmer temperatures aloft
will have trouble mixing down to the surface. Expecting temperatures
to hold nearly stead through evening or possibly dropping slightly
followed by a slight warm up after midnight. Also appears that
sleet is not likely with no instability or source of significant
lift.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VISLIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.
A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION. WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 17 44 38 68 / 30 30 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 20 43 42 69 / 30 30 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 24 53 34 69 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 33 52 42 74 / 20 20 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 24 57 41 73 / 20 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 18 54 41 65 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 18 45 33 68 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 24 63 30 73 / 20 20 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 19 45 43 68 / 30 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 19 47 43 67 / 30 30 10 0
WINK TX 22 53 38 69 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...
Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
05/27
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157
FXUS64 KMAF 272352 CCA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE... THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE LOW CIGS/VISLIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT ALL BUT FST WHERE LIFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH -FZDZ AND LIFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 28/06Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -FZDZ TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLICK RUNWAYS DURING THIS TIME AS TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID-DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CURRENT TRENDS AND AMEND IF/WHEN NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. E WINDS AROUND 12KT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND
VEER TO THE SE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, RADAR AND HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
ROAD CONDITIONS WERE CERTAINLY AFFECTED EARLIER TODAY BY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FELL IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WHERE 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE GFS
IS HAVING SOME REAL STRUGGLES HANDLING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS.
A WARM LATER AROUND 750 MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THIS SETS UP FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION. WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AFFECT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IN ADDITION, THE LOSS OF SUN ANGLE WILL REFREEZE SOME
WET ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, WHILE NOT MEETING FORMAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WE BELIEVE THE IMPACT
WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL NOON CST TOMORROW.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A WARMUP BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...
REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
27
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863
FXUS64 KMAF 272349
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs/vislikely affecting all terminals through much of the TAF period.
Currently have MVFR/IFR flight conditions at all but FST where LIFR
continues this evening. Looks as though conditions will deteriorate
quickly over the next several hours with -FZDZ and LIFR cigs/vis
expected at most terminals by 28/06Z. Expect periods of -FZDZ to
persist through Saturday morning, potentially resulting in slick
runways during this time as temps remain well below freezing through
mid-day. Will continue to monitor current trends and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, conditions will improve to MVFR and eventually
VFR Saturday afternoon. E winds around 12kt will remain elevated
overnight and veer to the SE Saturday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Significant snows that affected our area overnight and this morning
have moved east of the area. However, radar and hourly observations
continue to indicate occasional light snow at various locations.
Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant
snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. The most
significant snows fell in northern portions of Lea County where 4 to
6 inches of snow fell. The northern portions of the Texas Permian
Basin reported snowfall amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range
overnight and this morning.
Even with the majority of the snow moving east of the area, the
forecast this evening into the tomorrow morning remains quite
difficult. Both the Canadian and NAM models show very light
precipitation across a large portions of the CWA, generally along
and east of the mountains, this evening and then continuing into
Saturday morning. The GFS also indicates overnight precipitation,
primarily over the northern portions of the CWA. However, the GFS
is having some real struggles handling this winter weather event.
Thus, have trended our forecast towards the NAM and Canadian models.
A warm later around 750 mb is expected to develop later this evening
and overnight. As this occurs, we will see a transition from light
snow to light freezing drizzle. In addition, areas of freezing fog
are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well.
This sets up for an interesting situation. While we are not
anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly
potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and
overpasses. In addition, the loss of sun angle will refreeze some
wet roadways across the area. Thus, while not meeting formal
thresholds for a winter weather advisory, we believe the impact
warrants issuance of a winter weather advisory beginning later this
evening and continuing until noon CST tomorrow.
We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as
we finally warm above freezing into the 40s. Sunday temperatures
should be much more in line with climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.
A weak cold front will push into the area on Monday with another
reinforcement of colder air on Wednesday. Even with cooler air
moving into the area, it will not be near as cold as what we are
experiencing now. For now, will maintain slight to chance POPs
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA through
mid-week.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
27
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518
FXUS64 KMAF 272137
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Significant snows that affected our area overnight and this morning
have moved east of the area. However, radar and hourly observations
continue to indicate occasional light snow at various locations.
Road conditions were certainly affected earlier today by significant
snowfall combined with some light freezing precipitation. The most
significant snows fell in northern portions of Lea County where 4 to
6 inches of snow fell. The northern portions of the Texas Permian
Basin reported snowfall amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range
overnight and this morning.
Even with the majority of the snow moving east of the area, the
forecast this evening into the tomorrow morning remains quite
difficult. Both the Canadian and NAM models show very light
precipitation across a large portions of the CWA, generally along
and east of the mountains, this evening and then continuing into
Saturday morning. The GFS also indicates overnight precipitation,
primarily over the northern portions of the CWA. However, the GFS
is having some real struggles handling this winter weather event.
Thus, have trended our forecast towards the NAM and Canadian models.
A warm later around 750 mb is expected to develop later this evening
and overnight. As this occurs, we will see a transition from light
snow to light freezing drizzle. In addition, areas of freezing fog
are expected to develop along and east of the mountains as well.
This sets up for an interesting situation. While we are not
anticipating significant accumulations of ice, there is certainly
potential for minor ice accumulations that will affect bridges and
overpasses. In addition, the loss of sun angle will refreeze some
wet roadways across the area. Thus, while not meeting formal
thresholds for a winter weather advisory, we believe the impact
warrants issuance of a winter weather advisory beginning later this
evening and continuing until noon CST tomorrow.
We should finally see a warmup beginning late tomorrow afternoon as
we finally warm above freezing into the 40s. Sunday temperatures
should be much more in line with climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.
A weak cold front will push into the area on Monday with another
reinforcement of colder air on Wednesday. Even with cooler air
moving into the area, it will not be near as cold as what we are
experiencing now. For now, will maintain slight to chance POPs
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA through
mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 22 44 38 68 / 30 30 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 25 43 42 69 / 30 30 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 28 53 34 69 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 35 52 42 74 / 20 20 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 29 57 41 73 / 20 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 22 54 41 65 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 23 45 33 68 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 24 63 30 73 / 10 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 25 45 43 68 / 30 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 23 47 43 67 / 30 30 10 0
WINK TX 28 53 38 69 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.
&&
$$
12/03
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137
FXUS64 KMAF 271833 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Winter Weather Advisory has expired for portions of the Permian
Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Will continue and expand the
special weather statement this afternoon through 9 pm cst this
evening for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas for patchy
light snow, light sleet and patchy freezing fog/drizzle expected.
Lowered high temperatures several degrees this afternoon based on
latest trends.
Updated products are being sent.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue at the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Fog and occasional very
light snow pellets and very light freezing drizzle will continue.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
UPDATE...
Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.
DISCUSSION...
Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin. Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions. Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon. Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A High WindWarning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin. Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches. Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin. High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region. The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA. The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 24 46 39 64 / 30 20 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 24 44 40 63 / 30 30 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 25 53 35 68 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 35 51 44 70 / 20 20 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 31 61 44 72 / 20 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 23 54 39 66 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 23 46 35 64 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 23 60 32 72 / 10 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 25 47 41 65 / 30 20 20 10
ODESSA TX 25 50 41 65 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 28 54 40 70 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
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471
FXUS64 KMAF 271657
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1057 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue at the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Fog and occasional very
light snow pellets and very light freezing drizzle will continue.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
UPDATE...
Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.
DISCUSSION...
Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin. Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions. Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon. Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A High WindWarning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin. Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches. Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin. High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region. The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA. The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 27 24 46 39 / 60 30 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 26 24 44 40 / 70 30 30 20
CARLSBAD NM 32 25 53 35 / 50 20 10 10
DRYDEN TX 40 35 51 44 / 20 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 38 31 61 44 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 32 23 54 39 / 40 20 10 10
HOBBS NM 27 23 46 35 / 60 20 20 10
MARFA TX 44 23 60 32 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 29 25 47 41 / 50 30 20 20
ODESSA TX 30 26 50 41 / 50 30 20 10
WINK TX 32 30 54 40 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.
&&
$$
99/99
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045
FXUS64 KMAF 271216
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
UPDATE...
Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.
DISCUSSION...
Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin. Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions. Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon. Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A High WindWarning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin. Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches. Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin. High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region. The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA. The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.
HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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299
FXUS64 KMAF 271150
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin. Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions. Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon. Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A High WindWarning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin. Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches. Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin. High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region. The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA. The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 27 24 46 39 / 60 30 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 26 24 44 40 / 70 30 30 20
CARLSBAD NM 32 25 53 35 / 50 20 10 10
DRYDEN TX 40 35 51 44 / 20 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 38 31 61 44 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 32 23 54 39 / 40 20 10 10
HOBBS NM 27 23 46 35 / 60 20 20 10
MARFA TX 44 23 60 32 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 29 25 47 41 / 50 30 20 20
ODESSA TX 30 26 50 41 / 50 30 20 10
WINK TX 32 30 54 40 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.
HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99
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770
FXUS64 KMAF 271121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon. Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain. Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A High WindWarning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin. Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches. Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin. High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region. The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA. The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 27 24 46 39 / 60 30 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 26 24 44 40 / 70 30 30 20
CARLSBAD NM 32 25 53 35 / 50 20 10 10
DRYDEN TX 40 35 51 44 / 20 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 38 31 61 44 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 32 23 54 39 / 40 20 10 10
HOBBS NM 27 23 46 35 / 60 20 20 10
MARFA TX 44 23 60 32 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 29 25 47 41 / 50 30 20 20
ODESSA TX 30 26 50 41 / 50 30 20 10
WINK TX 32 30 54 40 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.
&&
$$
49/80
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724
FXUS64 KMAF 270536
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for this TAF cycle will be low cigs likely
affecting all terminals for the next 24 hours. Currently have MVFR
ceilings across the board with elevated E/NE winds in place. Some
light radar returns now showing up over SE NM and western Permian
Basin. Expect to see light snow at CNM then spread east and south
through at least Friday morning. Visibility restrictions will be
possible at times with periods of heavier snow. MVFR cigs look to
affect all terminals through much of the day Friday. The NAMMOS
continues to show ceilings drop to IFR Friday evening but confidence
is too low to include mention attm. For now, will continue MVFR
through the TAF period and make adjustments if needed.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
Southern Lea County.
TX...HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.
&&
$$
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475
FXUS64 KMAF 262325
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals, potentially through the end of this TAF cycle.
Currently have MVFR ceilings reported at all but INK, although the
cloud deck should drop back down at INK shortly. MVFR cigs look to
affect all sites through at least mid-day Friday, if not longer.
Will keep MVFR going through the 24 hour TAF period and make
adjustments if conditions look to improve, however there is a
chance conditions could deteriorate late afternoon Friday. Light
snow is expected to develop just after midnight at NM terminals
and quickly spread east and south. Visibility restrictions will be
possible at times with periods of heavier snowfall. Otherwise,
gusty NE winds may diminish slightly late tonight as winds slowly
veer to the east.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to fall across the area tonight as
cold air advection continues in the wake of a cold front that
moved through the region early in the day. A few light snow/sleet
showers have moved across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin through this afternoon, though little to no accumulation has
resulted. This will change tonight, however, as low and midlevel
moisture will increase ahead of a disturbance that will move
through the region over the next 24 hours. This increased moisture
will result in the development of snow, first across southeastern
New Mexico this evening, gradually spreading southeast across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin overnight. The greatest
accumulations are expected to be over Lea county New Mexico as
well as the northern Permian Basin, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
are possible through late Friday morning. Accumulations may also
be enhanced on the lee side of higher terrain across Eddy county
New Mexico as well as the Guadalupe Mountains of southwest Texas
in Culberson county due to upslope flow generated by a brisk
easterly to northeasterly wind. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued through late Friday morning for the aforementioned
areas, so please see the appropriate product for details. South of
the advisory area, mainly across the southern Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation are possible
before the disturbance shifts to the east of the area on Friday
afternoon. Have also gone ahead and upgraded the High WindWatch
for the Guadalupe Mountains to a High WindWarning tonight through
Friday morning, with brisk northeast winds expected to gust up to
65mph in the Warning area. Please see that appropriate product for
further details.
Friday looks to be the coldest day of the next week, with highs
ranging from the low to middle 20s across far southeastern New
Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s and low 50s near the
Rio Grande. Breezy east to northeast winds will also result in
widespread wind chill values in the single digits and teens
through midday Friday. Have also trended a bit cooler over areas
expected to see the most snowfall both on Friday and Friday night.
The threat of a wintry mix of precipitation will continue through
Saturday, mainly across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western
Low Rolling Plains, before a return to southerly surface winds
late Saturday mark the beginning of a warming trend that will
continue through the middle of next week. The warming trend will
be further supported by yet another shortwave rounding the back of
the longwave CONUStrough, which will begin to dig south across
the west coast, resulting in southwesterly flow at 850mb by
Sunday. Near to even slightly above normal temperatures in the low
to mid 60s to low 70s are expected from Sunday through Wednesday,
and there`s another chance for rain across portions of the area
Sunday night through Monday night. As the aforementioned trough
over the western US begins to move east on Tuesday, the focus for
precipitation will shift north, yielding a dry forecast for late
in the extended. By next Wednesday night/Thursday, another cold
front associated with the upper trough looks to impact the area,
though the GFS is roughly 12 hours faster with this feature than
the ECMWF, so will maintain near normal temperatures on Wednesday,
and then slightly cooler for Thursday, with highs once again
dropping below normal into the 50s.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.
&&
$$
27
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613
FXUS64 KMAF 262140
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to fall across the area tonight as
cold air advection continues in the wake of a cold front that
moved through the region early in the day. A few light snow/sleet
showers have moved across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin through this afternoon, though little to no accumulation has
resulted. This will change tonight, however, as low and midlevel
moisture will increase ahead of a disturbance that will move
through the region over the next 24 hours. This increased moisture
will result in the development of snow, first across southeastern
New Mexico this evening, gradually spreading southeast across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin overnight. The greatest
accumulations are expected to be over Lea county New Mexico as
well as the northern Permian Basin, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
are possible through late Friday morning. Accumulations may also
be enhanced on the lee side of higher terrain across Eddy county
New Mexico as well as the Guadalupe Mountains of southwest Texas
in Culberson county due to upslope flow generated by a brisk
easterly to northeasterly wind. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued through late Friday morning for the aforementioned
areas, so please see the appropriate product for details. South of
the advisory area, mainly across the southern Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation are possible
before the disturbance shifts to the east of the area on Friday
afternoon. Have also gone ahead and upgraded the High WindWatch
for the Guadalupe Mountains to a High WindWarning tonight through
Friday morning, with brisk northeast winds expected to gust up to
65mph in the Warning area. Please see that appropriate product for
further details.
Friday looks to be the coldest day of the next week, with highs
ranging from the low to middle 20s across far southeastern New
Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s and low 50s near the
Rio Grande. Breezy east to northeast winds will also result in
widespread wind chill values in the single digits and teens
through midday Friday. Have also trended a bit cooler over areas
expected to see the most snowfall both on Friday and Friday night.
The threat of a wintry mix of precipitation will continue through
Saturday, mainly across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western
Low Rolling Plains, before a return to southerly surface winds
late Saturday mark the beginning of a warming trend that will
continue through the middle of next week. The warming trend will
be further supported by yet another shortwave rounding the back of
the longwave CONUStrough, which will begin to dig south across
the west coast, resulting in southwesterly flow at 850mb by
Sunday. Near to even slightly above normal temperatures in the low
to mid 60s to low 70s are expected from Sunday through Wednesday,
and there`s another chance for rain across portions of the area
Sunday night through Monday night. As the aforementioned trough
over the western US begins to move east on Tuesday, the focus for
precipitation will shift north, yielding a dry forecast for late
in the extended. By next Wednesday night/Thursday, another cold
front associated with the upper trough looks to impact the area,
though the GFS is roughly 12 hours faster with this feature than
the ECMWF, so will maintain near normal temperatures on Wednesday,
and then slightly cooler for Thursday, with highs once again
dropping below normal into the 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 19 26 24 48 / 60 40 30 20
BIG SPRING TX 20 26 24 46 / 50 60 30 20
CARLSBAD NM 25 32 26 58 / 60 20 20 10
DRYDEN TX 32 40 36 54 / 20 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 26 37 30 60 / 20 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 17 33 23 55 / 30 20 20 10
HOBBS NM 19 27 24 48 / 70 40 20 10
MARFA TX 21 46 21 62 / 10 20 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 21 29 25 49 / 40 30 30 20
ODESSA TX 21 30 26 50 / 40 30 20 20
WINK TX 25 32 30 57 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.
TX...HIGH WINDWARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.
&&
$$
99/84
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452
FXUS64 KMAF 261723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs in place across all terminals through the afternoon and
overnight. Ceilings may rise at KFST and KCNM briefly but it
should not last as another disturbance moves across the region
tonight. Light snow is expected to develop mainly across the
northern terminals around midnight and continue most of Friday.
Lowered vsbys possibly down to a mile at times are likely.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Light snow across the far eastern Permian
Basin and western low rolling plains.
DISCUSSION...
Radar and observations show light snow falling from near Gail, to
Snyder, to Colorado City this morning. There may be some light
accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts
across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution
should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Snow
will diminish this afternoon but more is possible later tonight.
Hennig
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico. Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area. There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus. High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area. MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued. Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin. Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas. A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.
The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin. Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts. Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region. The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA. Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area. A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from 7 PM MST this evening through Friday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
29
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217
FXUS64 KMAF 261625
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Light snow across the far eastern Permian
Basin and western low rolling plains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Radar and observations show light snow falling from near Gail, to
Snyder, to Colorado City this morning. There may be some light
accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts
across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution
should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Snow
will diminish this afternoon but more is possible later tonight.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico. Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area. There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus. High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area. MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued. Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin. Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas. A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.
The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin. Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts. Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region. The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA. Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area. A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 20 27 26 / 40 30 30 20
BIG SPRING TX 34 20 27 24 / 40 30 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 41 24 34 26 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 50 32 40 35 / 10 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 40 24 38 32 / 10 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 20 33 24 / 10 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 35 19 28 24 / 40 30 30 20
MARFA TX 48 21 46 24 / 10 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 35 22 29 27 / 30 20 30 30
ODESSA TX 36 22 30 27 / 20 20 30 20
WINK TX 40 25 32 31 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from 7 PM MST this evening through Friday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99
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301
FXUS64 KMAF 261133
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico. Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area. There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus. High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area. MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued. Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin. Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas. A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.
The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin. Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts. Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region. The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA. Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area. A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from this evening through Friday morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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826
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico. Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area. There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus. High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area. MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued. Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin. Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas. A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.
The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin. Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts. Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.
An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers with an
isolatedthunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift. High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region. The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA. Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area. A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 35 20 27 26 / 20 30 30 20
BIG SPRING TX 34 20 27 24 / 20 30 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 41 24 34 26 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 50 32 40 35 / 10 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 40 24 38 32 / 10 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 20 33 24 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 35 19 28 24 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 48 21 46 24 / 10 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 35 22 29 27 / 10 20 30 30
ODESSA TX 36 22 30 27 / 10 20 30 20
WINK TX 40 25 32 31 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WINDWATCH from this evening through Friday morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
49/80
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954
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. NE winds will increase
in wake of a strong cold front at the terminals before 09Z,
especially MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ . MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 12z Thursday at all the terminals and continue through much
of Thursday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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410
FXUS64 KMAF 260323
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.UPDATE...
Quick update to include PoPs across northern Lea County and far
northern parts of the Permian Basin for tonight. A disturbance is
moving south across E NM along with a strong cold front. Radar
echoes are present across NM, but little is reaching the ground
yet due to an abundance of dry air near the sfc. Expect a dusting
of snow in this area with some parts of far northern Lea County
possibly seeing a half inch or so. This system should weaken
across the region in the morning leaving behind a much colder day.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. West winds will diminish
early this evening and become mainly northwest at 10 mph or less.
A strong cold front will push south through the terminals after
06z tonight and will result in a wind shift to the northeast
with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop around 12z Thursday at all
the terminals.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwavetrough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.
An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 38 19 29 / 10 10 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 31 38 20 30 / 0 10 20 40
CARLSBAD NM 33 40 21 34 / 10 10 20 30
DRYDEN TX 38 50 30 40 / 0 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 32 43 24 36 / 0 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 29 39 20 33 / 0 10 10 20
HOBBS NM 29 36 18 28 / 20 20 30 30
MARFA TX 28 46 21 43 / 0 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 39 21 32 / 0 10 20 30
ODESSA TX 32 40 21 32 / 0 10 20 30
WINK TX 33 43 24 33 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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555
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. West winds will diminish
early this evening and become mainly northwest at 10 mph or less.
A strong cold front will push south through the terminals after
06z tonight and will result in a wind shift to the northeast
with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop around 12z Thursday at all
the terminals.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwavetrough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.
An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 38 19 29 / 0 10 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 31 38 20 30 / 0 10 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 33 40 21 34 / 10 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 38 50 30 40 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 32 43 24 36 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 29 39 20 33 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 29 36 18 28 / 10 20 30 30
MARFA TX 28 46 21 43 / 0 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 39 21 32 / 0 10 20 30
ODESSA TX 32 40 21 32 / 0 10 20 20
WINK TX 33 43 24 33 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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693
FXUS64 KMAF 252140
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwavetrough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.
An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 30 38 19 29 / 0 10 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 31 38 20 30 / 0 10 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 33 40 21 34 / 10 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 38 50 30 40 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 32 43 24 36 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 29 39 20 33 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 29 36 18 28 / 10 20 30 30
MARFA TX 28 46 21 43 / 0 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 31 39 21 32 / 0 10 20 30
ODESSA TX 32 40 21 32 / 0 10 20 20
WINK TX 33 43 24 33 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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029
FXUS64 KMAF 251710
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals through much of this TAF
forecast package. Stratus will develop behind a cold front
Thursday morning, and have MVFR ceilings at the KMAF and KHOB
terminals after 10Z. The winds will be westerly this afternoon with
gusts to 20 knots and north to northeast tonight and Friday with
gusts to 30 knots after 07Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
UPDATE...
Removed pops this morning.
DISCUSSION...
The snow has all but completely ended across the area this
morning. Issued a quick update to take it out of the forecast...
still on track for a warm and sunny day today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Light snow and low ceilings will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours. Winds will mostly be out of the west with stronger
winds occurring during the afternoon hours. A cold front with
northerly winds will begin moving through the area around 04z. Some
gusts and low ceilings will be possible behind this front,
especially toward 12z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events. A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country. This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days. By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday. This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region. This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday. And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettledwx.
It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s. Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37. Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.
Friday will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope
wind remains across the area through the day and with a good chance
of precip look for clouds to remain through the day. By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover. The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s. These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.
As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin. Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF. Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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