Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC (28-6 MMA) with wins over Marvin Eastman at UFC 67, Chuck Liddell at UFC 71, and Dan Henderson at UFC 75. He rides a six-fight win streak with his most recent loss to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in PRIDE in early 2005.

Forrest Griffin holds a 6-2 record in the organization (15-4 MMA) with his two UFC losses being a razor-thin split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 59 and a sudden TKO loss to Keith Jardine at UFC 66. Griffin comes into the fight on a two-fight win streak with his most recent victory over the most recent person to defeat Jackson: “Shogun.” Griffin is coming into the fight off of reconstructive shoulder surgery. He reports that the shoulder is “as good as its ever going to get,” but he notes that his shoulder is not as good as new, saying “they couldn’t reattach all the ligaments.”

Jackson has the edge in wrestling and a significant edge in striking. He’s also got a phenomenal top game of control, rarely getting swept or reversed when he’s delivering effective and punishing ground and pound. Griffin’s advantages are tremendous heart and great ground skills with highly underrated jiu jitsu. Griffin will have an edge in reach and in overall size, but Jackson should have the edge in strength.

The main question that will decide this fight is simply: “Can Griffin get the fight to the ground before getting repeatedly punched in the face?” My answer: not likely. Griffin has fantastic toughness and a great heart, but Jackson’s striking is on another level completely. Jackson’s advantage in wrestling and takedown defense should result in him being able to keep this fight standing for the most part, and not being controlled on the ground by Griffin in the event it does land there. In his victory over Rua, Griffin depended on several reversals and sweeps from the bottom, and I simply do not think he will be able to sweep or reverse Jackson thanks to the power and overall top game that “Rampage” possesses.

Many people question Jackson’s cardio, but I think that his five-round fight with an always-dangerous Dan Henderson should put that to rest. Henderson is tremendously strong, and his Greco-Roman wrestling style can significantly wear on an opponent. Yet, Jackson demonstrated great conditioning in that fight, which leads me to believe he should have adequate conditioning for Griffin as well.

Assuming Jackson can keep the fight on the feet, I predict it’s going to be a short night for Griffin. However, if Griffin can get the fight to the ground in the early rounds, he’s certainly got the ability to win this fight on the ground. Most of the time, I expect we see Jackson winning by TKO in the second round, thanks to a slow feeling-out process in the first.

The current line assigns Griffin a slightly better than 30% chance of pulling off the upset, and I think that’s a little high. I think Jackson wins this fight often enough to make him the right play at a line up to -300.

Patrick Cote (+115) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-145)

Patrick “The Predator” Cote holds a 12-4 professional mixed martial arts record, and he is 3-4 in the UFC. He is riding a four-fight win streak, including TKO wins over Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries. His most recent loss was by way of submission to Travis Lutter at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale in November 2006. Cote has been inactive since January and is coming off a knee injury that forced him to withdraw from a scheduled fight at UFC 83 in April. Cote has been preparing for this fight by splitting his time between Brazilian Top Team Canada (alongside Georges St. Pierre when he’s in Canada) and training with Mark DellaGrotte in the States.

Ricardo “Cachorrao” Almeida has fought in PRIDE and in Pancrase, and this will be his fifth fight in the UFC, where he holds a 2-2 record (9-2 overall). Almeida holds a second degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under the legendary Renzo Gracie, and as you’d expect, he typically wins his fights by way of submission. Almeida holds a stellar grappling pedigree with numerous grappling titles, including a Pan Am gold medal and multiple top-three finishes in the Abu Dhabi grappling championships. Almeida’s most notable win is a submission victory over Nathan Marquardt in the Japanese organization of Pancrase in 2003.

Almeida left the sport of MMA four years ago, retiring to focus on teaching and the growth of his school, the Ricardo Almeida Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Academy in New Jersey. With the incredible growth of MMA as a sport in recent years, Almeida pulled himself out of retirement, and now at 31, he’s only one win away from a title shot, since according to UFC president Dana White, the winner of this bout will be next in line (behind Yushin Okami) for a crack at reigning middleweight champion Anderson Silva.

At first glance this fight represents the prototypical striker versus grappler battle, but it is actually a much closer match-up in every arena. Cote has heavier hands and quicker punches, and while he should have an edge while the fight is on the feet, Almeida is an adequate striker with an arsenal of effective leg kicks.

On the ground, Almeida is a world-class grappler, but Cote has underrated submission skills; many are not aware he holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Brazilian Top Team Canada’s third degree black belt Fabio Holanda. So, while Cote should have an edge in striking and Almeida should have an edge in grappling, the fight should be closer than most expect in both areas.

One area Almeida does have a bit of an advantage is in size and strength, and I think that’s going to be the edge in this fight. While Cote is quicker and hits harder, I think Almeida will be able to use his adequate standup skills to close ground, get to a clinch, and put Cote on the ground. There, Cote has sufficient skills to keep from getting submitted in a flash, but at the same time, there’s a significant difference between Almeida’s skills as a second degree black belt and Cote’s as a purple belt.

Assuming Almeida can dodge Cote’s heavy hands long enough to get inside and get the fight to the ground, I expect we see Almeida leave victorious courtesy a second-round submission, likely a choke set up by strikes.

It’s worth nothing that this line opened with Almeida as a +140 underdog, and the line has obviously moved very significantly since then, with money pouring in on Almeida since the line opened — to the point that the line has reversed with Almeida as the favorite.

I still like Almeida even at this line, but I obviously liked it a lot more when it opened in mid-May with him as an underdog. This was yet another in a long line of “significantly off” betting lines, which just goes to prove how possible it is to “beat” betting on MMA.

Joe Stevenson (-260) vs. Gleison Tibau (+200)

Joe Stevenson holds a 28-8 MMA record and is 5-2 in the UFC. He returns for his first fight after being crushed by BJ Penn back in January at UFC 80.

American Top Team’s Gleison Tibau holds a 15-5 MMA record and is 3-2 in the UFC. He holds a three-inch reach advantage on his opponent and will likely look to exploit that edge by fighting from range. Tibau had won four fights in a row before getting derailed in his most recent fight with a close unanimous decision loss to Tyson Griffin at UFC 81.

There are many similarities between these two fighters. Both are young, with Tibau 24 years old and Stevenson two years older. Both are strong jiu jitsu players with strong submissions. Both have average-level standup, adequate but not outstanding. There are some edges: Stevenson has an edge in wrestling and in shooting for takedowns. Tibau is better in the clinch, with very good throws if he can secure a body lock.

Stevenson is usually the stronger fighter against his lightweight opponents; however, Tibau is a former welterweight who has dropped down and should have a slight strength advantage to go along with his significant size advantage.

I expect Stevenson will come out aggressive early, trying to push the pace. I expect that he will be forced to take the fight to the ground thanks to Tibau’s reach advantage. On the ground, look for Stevenson to try to drop elbows from inside the guard, rather than work significantly to pass guard. He will know that aggressively attempting to improve his position against a skilled BJJ practitioner such as Tibau can result in a sweep or a submission. Because of that, I actually expect this fight to be a bit of a disappointment for the fans — Stevenson’s best game plan for a win is a cautious top game from inside guard, which would not make for the most exciting fight.

At +200, Tibau is being given a 33% chance to win this fight, and I think that is about right. I definitely think Tibau is a live underdog, meaning he has a meaningful chance to win, but I do not like him enough to recommend a heavy bet. He is worth a small flier if you are interested in taking a chance, but I predict that most of the time we are going to see Stevenson walk away with a unanimous decision victory, with Tibau winning a round at most. Despite that, I’ll be on Tibau as the big underdog for a small play, hoping he can catch Stevenson with a solid shot while he’s exploiting his reach advantage on the feet, creating an opportunity for a transition to the ground where he can lock in a rear naked choke.

Josh Koscheck (-315) vs. Chris Lytle (+240)

Former NCAA national champion wrestler Josh Koscheck is 8-2 in the UFC and 10-2 overall. He has won six of his past seven fights in the organization, with his only misstep in that stretch a unanimous decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 74. In his most recent fight, Koscheck, Koscheck trains at AKA under Bob Cook and Dave Camarillo and alongside Mike Swick, scored a TKO victory over Dustin Hazelett at UFC 82.

Chris “Lights Out” Lytle holds a 25-15-5 professional MMA record and is 4-7 in the UFC. Lytle has lost three of his past five fights in the UFC, losing to Matt Serra by split decision at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, losing a unanimous decision to Matt Hughes at UFC 68, and losing by TKO (stoppage due to a cut) to Thiago Alves at UFC 78.

Lytle is a veteran fighter and always tough; however, he should not present a significant test for Koscheck. Koscheck should be able to adopt the same game plan Hughes used to defeat Lytle at UFC 68, taking his opponent down with his wrestling skills and keeping him there. Koscheck’s takedowns are some of the best in MMA, and Lytle does not stand much of a chance in preventing them. At the same time, Koscheck has improved his overall game and has become a more well-rounded fighter with improved standup skills. Look for Koscheck to win this fight handily, dictating both the pace and location of the fight, on his way to a TKO stoppage in the third round.

Tyson Griffin (-295) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+235)

This fight is being billed as a potential fight of the night by some, which I think is a mistake. I think it is an interesting match-up of fighters at contrasting points in their careers, and they have contrasting styles, but I am not expecting the same level of fireworks as some other writers. Usually, the classic cliché of “striker vs. grappler” does not make for the most exciting fight, and that is how I see this breaking down.

Tyson Griffin is only 24 years old and already holds an 11-1 MMA record, 4-1 in the UFC. Griffin has won his past three fights, a split decision over Clay Guida at UFC 72 and unanimous decision wins over Thiago Tavares at UFC 76 and Gleison Tibau at UFC 81. His lone loss was a close unanimous decision loss to Frankie Edgar at UFC 67. Griffin is aggressive, with solid wrestling and good striking, especially good ground and pound. He trains out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas.

Marcus Aurelio is 34 years old and holds a 16-5 MMA record, 2-1 in the UFC. Aurelio is a veteran of the PRIDE organization, where he most notably defeated top-ranked lightweight Takanori Gomi at PRIDE Bushido 10 (Gomi later won a rematch at PRIDE Bushido 13).

Aurelio was a victim of a long layoff due to Zuffa’s purchase of PRIDE, sitting on the shelf for almost a year from mid-2006 until making his UFC debut in mid-2007. There, at UFC 74, Aurelio dropped a close split decision to Guida — a shared opponent with Griffin, obviously. He went on to rebound with consecutive wins over Luke Caudillo at UFC 78 and Ryan Roberts at UFC Fight Night 13. Aurelio is primarily a submission fighter, holding a third degree black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. He trains out of American Top Team under Ricardo Liborio. Aurelio has never been finished in a fight: all five of his losses have been decisions, and four of the five have been split decisions.

Griffin is a heavy favorite here for a reason; he is more well-rounded and should have a significant edge standing. He is also younger, faster and stronger, and he has better wrestling skills to help him avoid Aurelio’s submission attacks. Griffin will look to keep this fight standing and do damage, and he will look to use his wrestling skills to prevent takedowns and score reversals and escapes to get back to standing. Aurelio will look to use his standup only to get the fight to the ground, where he can showcase his jiu jitsu.

Aurelio is being given just under a 30% chance to win here, and I like his chances. While he was overrated by many after defeating Gomi, I believe his value has generally come back to earth, and he is being undervalued here slightly as an opponent to Griffin. Thanks to the recent common opponent of Guida, we have a good metric for evaluating the two fighters: while Griffin won a split decision over Guida at UFC 72 and Aurelio lost a split decision at UFC 74, the most important thing I take away from the comparison is not that one won and one loss; instead we see that the difference between these two fighters is not as great as the current betting line indicates.

Griffin should certainly be the favorite here, but I like the odds with Aurelio as a heavy underdog. Aurelio has the ability to finish this fight with a submission at any point in the fight, whereas I do not see Griffin (who has gone to decision in his most recent four fights) breaking Aurelio’s streak of never being stopped in a fight. I predict Aurelio by submission in the second round.

PRELIMINARY CARD (MAY NOT BE TELEVISED)

Gabriel Gonzaga (-600) vs. Justin McCully (+400)

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga holds an 8-3 professional record and is 4-2 in the UFC. Since upsetting the heavily favored Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic at UFC 70, Gonzaga has dropped his past two: a title shot against Randy Couture at UFC 74 and an upset loss to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Gonzaga is a BJJ black belt with a decorated grappling pedigree that includes wins in the Mundials and ADCC.

Justin McCully is 8-3-2 in professional MMA and is 1-0 in the UFC thanks to a unanimous decision victory over Antoni Hardonk in April 2007. McCully injured his elbow in the fight (due to not tapping to a deep armbar Hardonk secured in the first round), which required surgery, which led to the long layoff. McCully is a member of Tito Ortiz’s Team Punishment; however he did not prepare for this fight with them. Instead, he assembled his own training camp. McCully holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, and he backs it up with strong wrestling and aggressive ground and pound.

I think this line should be significantly closer. Gonzaga coming off two consecutive losses shouldn’t be an 85% favorite over someone such as McCully, who managed to defeat a tough Hardonk after taking the fight on only three weeks’ notice. Injury issues and ring rust aside, McCully should be in better shape for this fight, lighter and better conditioned. Gonzaga should likewise look improved and will know that he is in a “must win” situation after two disappointing losses, so look for him to come out motivated and aggressive. And while Gonzaga wins this fight more often than not, I think McCully has a chance here.

While Gonzaga is more skilled on the ground — all BJJ black belts are not created equal, after all — McCully should have an edge in wrestling as well as striking on the feet. Don’t let Gonzaga’s head kick of a battered and stunned “Cro Cop” confuse you into thinking that he has impressive standup — “Cro Cop” was reeling from numerous elbows delivered by Gonzaga on the ground when he was kicked into oblivion in that fight. Gonzaga’s lack of success standing against Werdum (who is not exactly an elite-level striker) should be weighed more heavily.

Look for Gonzaga to come out aggressively and look to get the fight to the ground. If McCully can outlast the initial rush and barrage of likely elbows from Gonzaga, I think he can win this fight in the later rounds. McCully has a few paths to victory, in my opinion, but the most likely chance for the heavy underdog is to win a unanimous decision by stealing the second round and winning the third, beating Gonzaga by exploiting his advantage on the feet. McCully cannot make the same mistake he made against Hardonk; if he gets on top and gets too aggressive with ground and pound, Gonzaga will definitely latch onto an arm and end the fight.

If McCully was not coming off such a significant injury and resulting layoff, I would love this line. As it is, I only like it a little: we are hampered here by the unknowns of McCully’s condition and ring rust to attack this line too aggressively. Still, as a 15% underdog, McCully should make for a decent small play.

Jorge Gurgel (+100) vs. Cole Miller (-130)

The 31-year-old Gurgel is 3-2 in the UFC and 12-3 overall. He has prepared for this fight by training with Matt “The Wizard” Hume in Seattle, as well as with Marcus Aurellio and Rich Franklin in Cincinnati. Gurgel has also been working with sports psychiatrist Brian Cain, who has his “head sorted out now.”

“The Ultimate Fighter 5″ cast member Cole Miller is 24 and holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Ricardo Liborio. The American Top Team fighter holds a 13-3 professional record and is 2-1 in the UFC. Miller looks to rebound from a TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens at UFC Fight Night 12 in January.

Miller is a tall lightweight at 6-foot-1. He is a well-rounded fighter with decent standup to go with his grappling skills. On the other side, Gurgel is a tough fighter with solid standup skills and excellent ground skills. In the past, he has tended to overlook his ground game and focus on fighting on the feet; look for that to continue here to an extent. While Miller has a significant size and reach advantage, he lacks Gurgel’s toughness and punching ability, so look for Gurgel to bang on the feet until Miller wants to take the fight to the ground. There, Miller is at a slight but meaningful disadvantage to Gurgel, so I expect to see Gurgel pull out the submission victory late in the second round after bloodying his opponent on the feet in the first. That said, this line is close for a reason, so remember if you bet this fight, you are betting on a highly volatile outcome — a fight that can easily go either way.

Melvin Guillard (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+160)

Team Punishment fighter Melvin “Stanchion” Guillard is only 25 but holds an extensive 21-7-2 MMA record. Guillard is 3-3 in the UFC after dropping his most recent two fights in the organization; both first round submission losses, the first to Joe Stevenson and the second to Rich Clementi. Guillard then bounced from the UFC to grab a unanimous decision win in the Rage in the Cage organization. Guillard is a strong wrestler who is strong, athletic and explosive. He possesses decent offensive tools but has shown a real weakness in the area of submission defense. Guillard claims to be refocused and that he has been working on the holes in his game. We shall see.

His opponent Dennis Siver holds an 11-5 MMA record and is 1-2 in the UFC. The Russian fighter is looking to rebound after recently dropping a unanimous decision to Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 12. Siver is well rounded with good takedowns, good kickboxing and good boxing skills. Siver is a former welterweight who has dropped down to lightweight for his most recent two fights, and he seems to look quite a bit better there.

More than half of Siver’s wins come by way of submission, and given Guillard’s past submission weaknesses, I cannot see picking him as a 2-to-1 favorite. This line opened with Guillard much closer, around -150, and has been bet up significantly since. At -150 I think Guillard was the right play, but I think as a 2-to-1 favorite, he is being overvalued. The line of +160 on Siver is right what I would consider an accurate line, so it is not worth betting specifically for value. I would recommend monitoring the line and placing a bet if you can get Siver better than +160 anywhere.

Corey Hill (-215) vs. Justin Buchholz (+175)

Freak-of-nature Corey Hill stands 6-foot-5 and is 155 pounds, which are much more important numbers to this conversation than his 1-0 UFC record (2-0 MMA). His incredible stature makes him a real enigma at 155 pounds. Against a strong submission fighter, you worry about the ease of attacking the long limbs, but in what little we’ve seen of Hill, he’s shown some real promise and does a good job utilizing his insane reach advantage. Hill is a former junior college national wrestling champion, and he trains with MFS Elite under Pat Miletich in Bettendorf, Iowa.

Alaskan Justin Buchholz is 0-1 in the UFC and 7-2 overall. Bucholz was the former ICON Sport lightweight champion and also fought several times in the Alaska Fighting Championship organization, where he held the organization’s lightweight title. Buchholz is primarily a wrestler, and he has never been to decision in his nine fights.

In my opinion we do not know enough about either fighter to make this a good play. I will predict Hill by TKO in the second round, but I am not going to bet it.