The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

This unique species breeds somewhere few humans will ever go: dense, mosquito-infested spruce bogs. Many birders prefer, instead, to find them mincing around in the undergrowth during migration in places like Chicago in May or New York City in October. Audubon's climate model projects a total shift in summer climate space--with none of the core range stable or included by 2080. It appears, however, that a good deal of the new space is currently Arctic tundra, and black spruces are famously slow-growing trees. The model does not make any winter projections, as Connecticut Warblers winter in South America.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.