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FiveThirtyEight Predictions--3 Weeks Until First Contest

Well, a mere 3 weeks until Iowa, DNC establishment tool FiveThirtyEight has some primary/caucus predictions, and you simply *won't believe* what they are predicting!

They have forecast the result of every state and territory in the US of A, and the results are:

Sanders wins: New Hampshire, Vermont, California

Warren wins: Massachusetts

Biden wins: Every other of the 46 states, all 5 territories, Democrats Abroad, and Washington DC

Iowa, where the latest polls show Sanders ahead or at least even? Nope--that'll be Biden. States where Sanders won against Hillary in 2016 (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, Alaska, Maine???)--nope all will go Biden. Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, North Dakota, and Montana, where Sanders also won in 2016? Those are so Biden states!

Hawaii, where Sanders also won in 2016, not to mention the home state of Tulsi--Biden will win that one for sure.

Did I mention Indiana, West Virginia, Utah, and Rhode Island where Sanders also won 2016? Forget about those--Biden will win 'em all!

I find it very improbable that Sanders wins California, the largest and most delegate-rich state in the Union, and that doesn't supercharge his campaign into additional wins. FiveThirtyEight does have Biden a very close second in the state--Sanders winning 133 delegates to Biden's 123.

Now, to be fair, they actually do *not* have Biden walking away with enough delegates to win the first round of voting at the convention. A candidate needs 1,990 delegates to win the first round, and FiveThirtyEight actually has Biden and Sanders close in most races, and shows Biden gaining only 1,503 delegates, with Sanders at 1,022 (Warren at 737 and Buttigieg at 506).

Let's see how FiveThirtyEight fares in 2020. I'm thinking they'll be in for some big surprises!

I reminded myself that 538 is merely aggregating poll results and collecting averages.

Their particular schtick is to give each poll a credibility weight, based on how representative the polled group is to the voting demographic, bias in the way the question is asked, the track record of the polster, and other variations that might affect the outcome.

It worked out so well the last time. What could possible go wrong?

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Meanwhile, the visual data for each state are great and easy to understand. It's a link you can keep handy to check out the continuously updated odds unitl election day. I intend to use it.
__________________________________** I predict they tweak the numbers to match their own biases and to influence their audience. I shall read their predictions through that lens.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

@Pluto's Republic
Actually predicting the election is completely beyond them. Joe Biden will win all these states despite being in initial-stage dementia, right.

I reminded myself that 538 is merely aggregating poll results and collecting averages.

Their particular schtick is to give each poll a credibility weight, based on how representative the polled group is to the voting demographic, bias in the way the question is asked, the track record of the polster, and other variations that might affect the outcome.

It worked out so well the last time. What could possible go wrong?

.
Meanwhile, the visual data for each state are great and easy to understand. It's a link you can keep handy to check out the continuously updated odds unitl election day. I intend to use it.
__________________________________** I predict they tweak the numbers to match their own biases and to influence their audience. I shall read their predictions through that lens.

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21 users have voted.

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"There is no good future for the US if neoliberalism, and neoliberal elites, continue to rule." -- Ian Welsh

Their real audience and fan base have always been the insider bubble folks. The only thing pre-Iowa polls measure is name recognition from the past. Predictably, the runoffs against Trump are as close to 50-50 as they can get them. They probably should have held off on their debut until reality started to peek through. Or maybe it is a psyop launch. All their projections end up with a brokered convention.

Biden is going to walk a weird path to the finish line. The candidates who haven't dropped out yet should probably stick around. Bloomberg is convinced he can buy the Presidency, and I hope he does. Americans need to see their payola democracy in action.

#2 Actually predicting the election is completely beyond them. Joe Biden will win all these states despite being in initial-stage dementia, right.

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8 users have voted.

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Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

by the way, there's a lot fewer videos about the 2016 primary election fraud now...you have to wade through acres of Trump Says Voter Fraud! videos to get to one about the *election* fraud (not voter fraud) in the Democratic primaries.

#2 Actually predicting the election is completely beyond them. Joe Biden will win all these states despite being in initial-stage dementia, right.

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11 users have voted.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

by the way, there's a lot fewer videos about the 2016 primary election fraud now...you have to wade through acres of Trump Says Voter Fraud! videos to get to one about the *election* fraud (not voter fraud) in the Democratic primaries.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

He went from being a hostage of Russian security forces to predicting the exact results of the Iowa presidential caucuses, right down to the third- and fourth-place finishers. He called Bernie Sanders’s upset win in this past week’s Indiana primary, when his competitors all said Hillary Clinton had it locked down. He has correctly predicted the results of 77 out of 87 races in this year’s primaries, an 89 percent accuracy rating that equals that of FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver while tackling nearly twice as many contests.

And he’s a fictional character.

Carl “The Dig” Diggler is a parody of political pundits written by Felix Biederman and me for CAFE. Carl exists to satirize all that is vacuous, elitist and ridiculous about the media class. From his sycophantic love of candidates in uniform to his hatred of Bernie Bros, from his reverence for “the discourse” to his constant threats of suing the people who troll him on Twitter, Carl is predicated on being myopic, vain and — frankly — wrong.

But something funny happened along the way. Biederman and I, who are neither statisticians nor political scientists, started making educated guesses for our parody about the results of the primaries. And we were right. A lot.

We beat the hacks at their own game by predicting every Democratic winner on Super Tuesday. We told readers who would win in the unpredictable caucuses that FiveThirtyEight didn’t even try to forecast, such as those in Minnesota, Wyoming and even American Samoa. We called 19 out of the past 19 contests. FiveThirtyEight, whose model cannot work without polling, accurately predicted 13.

I'm so sick of that Neoliberal putz Nate Silver. He should have been exposed for all he is in 2016, just another Dem operative who gives the DNC what they need. He's far outlived any gravitas he had in 2008 and gotta be on the payroll, the scab.