Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Can we make money if the polls are right?

There is a website which I peruse regularly called politicalbetting.com. The folk there seem to make a nice turn on betting on all sorts of elections. A very insightful bunch they all are and I wish them well.

The challenge though is that going to a bookie to place a bet is not a fair game. The bookie can refuse large bets and indeed, refuse to take the bets. As such I think to make an decent money a lot of money has to be sunk into the game a long way ahead of time.

Where investment is unlimited is in the equity and and forex markets. Here you can invest what you like in split seconds and trade out seconds later too.

The recent polls point to a very hung Parliament. In fact, Election Forecast appears to have it that no Government will be formed at all. The Tories on 280 and Labour on 260 mean the SNP can prevent any Government being formed.

My take on this is thus:

- The Pound will weaken 2-3% on this news as it emerges at the end of next week. The Pound has been rising the past month, so for once I can't see that Government instability it priced in.

- Similarly the UK markets, up at all time highs when the chances are a very left wing socialist coalition will get into power or alternatively that no Government will be formed.

The markets tend to look at past performance and the UK has not had Government formation problems for some time. I am not suggesting there will be a crash, but a couple of hundred points off the FTSE and a small decline in the Pound throws up some interesting potential.

I am on a long dollar/ short pound ETF for starters. Just thinking about which sector will do the worst, likely energy utilities and banks I would imagine?

Since the Greens will apparently "phase out fossil fuel based power generation and nuclear power" we better invest in chicken shit. At least with a few chickens you could have a meal and have the methane to cook it with. Or will chickens be banned too?