Evening Standard Comment: A growing mood of economic optimism

Friday 16 August 2013 11:37 BST

To the extent that the economic recovery is driven by confidence, the poll we publish today by Ipsos Mori is encouraging. A significant percentage of those surveyed — 44 per cent — believe that the general economic condition of the country will improve in the next year, more than those who believe it will stay the same, 29 per cent, or get worse, 24 per cent. Optimism is hard to quantify economically but it matters if it means that businesses are more likely to invest, banks to offer credit and consumers to spend.

The same mood of cautious optimism was borne out by the most recent growth figures, which were 0.6 per cent better in the second quarter of this year than in the first — a 1.4 per cent improvement on a year ago. This does not amount to a boom. As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney noted last week, this recovery is weak by historical standards — hence the need for long-term low interest rates. But the trajectory is up. And that matters, particularly since manufacturing shows some signs of recovering. Services are back almost to pre-recession levels. Meanwhile this week’s figures show similar signs of recovery in the eurozone, powered by France and Germany.

All this is good news for the Chancellor, George Osborne, who finds himself for the first time since last year’s so-called omnishambles Budget ahead of Labour’s Ed Balls in terms of public confidence in his stewardship of the economy. Yet we still need proper growth: not predicated on monetary tricks such as quantitative easing but on the country making more and selling more. That depends in part on the fate of the eurozone, our biggest market, which is outside our control and still weak in its troubled periphery. It’s certainly positive that we are feeling better about the economy: that should encourage spending. There’s still a long haul ahead, though.

Closing ticket offices

Transport Commissioner Sir Peter Hendy has ruffled feathers by confirming in an interview that Transport for London is indeed thinking of closing Underground ticket offices to make savings, as reported by this paper. TfL has to manage continuing cuts in its grant from central government: in June, the Chancellor’s spending review announced a further cut of 12.5 per cent — £220 million — in 2015/16.

It is sensible to consider every option and technology plainly changes how and whether most passengers need ticket offices. The move next year to contactless payment will, as the Oyster card has already done, make a big difference to the way we use the Tube. Yet as any central London Underground user will know, ticket offices are especially valuable for tourists and for those unfamiliar with the system. Sir Peter will have to consider whether he can dispense entirely with human help at stations that tourists use most. There are other options he should also be considering — cuts in the bureaucracy at TfL have further to go and the number of executives on salaries of more than £100,000 a year is still excessive. He must weigh up all the options and decide on the best approach for passengers rather than those of the transport unions.

Oxford Street fashion

Oxford Street already meets Bond Street but the advent of its 17 days of designer fashion in the Oxford Street Fashion Showcase really brings the best of British design to the popular end of the market. The joy of British fashion is the fusion of high-end ideas with the vitality of the street: this will be good for both parties.