Egypt might postpone elections until November

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Egypt’s parliamentary election may not be held until November, two months later
than originally planned, an army source said on Wednesday after some political
groups called for the vote to be pushed back. The military source said the
registration of candidates would start in September, which he said meant the
army was sticking to its commitment to start the handover of power to civilians
then.

“Procedures for a parliamentary election will begin in September,
possibly the middle of the month. That will involve registration of
candidates,” he told Reuters.

“Then there will be a campaigning period,
after which an election will be held,” he said. “This could take the voting till
after September, possibly November.”

Also Wednesday, Egyptian authorities
said more than 650 senior officers would end their police service, an
unprecedented shake-up after protesters demanded reform of a force blamed for
killing protesters who ousted Hosni Mubarak. Analysts said a postponed vote
would almost certainly harm the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s
best organized group.

“This will definitely come at the expense of the
Brotherhood. This has been the wish of the liberal democrats in Egypt since the
first day after the fall of Mubarak,” said Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of
research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “They’ve been pushing for
a constitution that is not just an overhaul of the existing constitution, which
is basically designed to perpetuate a oneparty system and socialist-style state.
They want to create something that can withstand the social pressures from
populism and Islamism, and at the same time allow for democratic, secular
parties to ‘catch up’ to the Brotherhood.

“The Brotherhood is obviously
now the best organized and most likely to win in the next election,” Schanzer
said. “In the tug-of-war between the Islamists and ‘secular revolutionists,’
let’s say, the momentum continues to sway back and forth. We thought the
Brotherhood would absolutely walk away with this, but there now appears to be a
change in momentum,” he added. “It’s too early to tell whether this will benefit
Israel at the end of the day, but in the long term, in terms of mitigating
Islamism and dangerous populist sentiment, I think this would be a positive
development.”

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The announcement of police dismissals follows six days of
protests in Cairo and other cities that have included demands for speedier
change and faster trials of those behind the deaths of more than 840
demonstrators.

The Interior Ministry statement said 505 generals and more
than 160 other senior officers would end their service. It was not immediately
clear if they were being fired, or retiring.

Ministry spokesman General
Marwan Mostafa said: “The police force shares with the people feelings of pain
and hope. People involved in security are... keen to do their role in protecting
the revolution and look forward to a future of democracy.”

Police were
hated for the way they quashed even the smallest protest during Mubarak’s rule,
and were reviled for using live ammunition, rubber bullets, batons and water
cannon in the 18-day uprising that led to the president quitting on February
11.

Activists welcomed the shake-up, but said it wasn’t
sufficient.

“This is a major step, but still more procedures need to be
done. Officers who had a role in torturing protesters during the
revolution are still in their position,” said Ahmed Maher from April Six Youth
movement. “We also need to have a real restructuring process in the
military,” he added.

“Having elections in November would certainly offer
nascent parties more time to prepare for the election race. At least now we have
more time to compete with already established groups,” said Mohamed Anis, a
founding member of the new Justice Party.

Asked about the November voting
date, senior Brotherhood member Essam el-Erian said: “This was
expected...

We will all get to have more time before [the] actual
voting.”

After a mass protest on Friday demanded swifter reforms, a core
of demonstrators have remained camped out in tents and under canopies in the
sweltering heat in Tahrir Square, demanding swifter reforms and criticizing the
military’s rule.

In a bid to assuage public anger, Prime Minister Essam
Sharaf said the cabinet would be reshuffled in a week. The government has also
pledged to raise the minimum wage. Sharaf said earlier in July that the election
would be in late September, although in June he had said he backed a delay to
allow more groups to organize.

“At the end of the day, you can’t change
people’s minds about how they’re going to vote, but you can make it much more
difficult for them to overtake the system by providing the checks and balances
needed,” Schanzer said. “You can predict Islamist takeovers in a number of
countries that have the trappings of democracy, but have poor
constitutions.

“One would have thought, 10 years ago, that Turkey had a
strong constitution, but it didn’t. Now you see the stranglehold the AKP [ruling
party] has on Turkey. The world can learn from that and help Egypt draft a
strong constitution that will protect against Islamist
encroachment.

“Egypt is a cauldron right now of competing political
forces,” Schanzer said. “This is a country where people have not been free to
speak their mind and suggest new ways to govern the country. Now they’re finally
airing these things, so voices are coming out that are highly disturbing, as
well as those that are highly encouraging, and they’re all clashing against one
another.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

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