Planning and Forecasting

Planning is essential to a reliable, sustainable electricity future for Ontario. This section provides an overview of the different plans and processes that includes long-term forecasting, planning and working with stakeholders to meet local, regional and provincial electricity needs, as well as forecasting Ontario's demand for electricity from near real-time to 18 months ahead.

Ontario Planning Outlook

The 2016 IESO Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO) is a technical report that provides a 10-year review (2005-2015) and a 20-year outlook (2016-2035) for Ontario’s electricity system.

Assessing system requirements associated with capacity, reliability, market and system operations, transmission and distribution, the 2016 report concludes that Ontario is well-positioned to meet provincial needs until the mid-2020s, while continuing to adapt to significant change across the sector.

This report focuses in the near term on ensuring the completion of initiatives currently underway, including remaining procurements to meet the 2013 Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP) targets, and regional planning activities.

Accelerating change is predicted for the decades ahead, and the report explores the opportunities provided by various technologies and distributed energy resources. Meanwhile, it highlights that ensuring continued reliability will require the consideration of an expanding number of factors, such as:

the continued expansion of renewables

nuclear refurbishments at Darlington and Bruce

growing consumer engagement and behavioural changes

continued growth of embedded resources

new market mechanisms intended to spur increased competition

The Climate Change Action Plan

The OPO serves as an objective baseline for the Ministry of Energy and sector stakeholders in terms of electricity demand and supply outlooks and was used to inform the Ministry’s formal consultation process for the development of the 2017 Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP). The release of 2017 LTEP was accompanied by directives to the IESO and OEB to implement several new initiatives. The IESO will be developing an Implementation Plan that will provide the context, engagement scope, timelines and deliverables for each of its nine directed initiatives.

20-Year Outlooks for Demand and Supply

Historical Ontario Energy Demand

Demand measured on the province's bulk power grid has declined over the last 10 years as a result of conservation, distributed energy resources, changes in the economy and pricing effects.

Ontario Net Energy Demand Across Outlooks

The IESO considered a range for electricity demand in Ontario. This range is reflected in four outlooks that provide content for long-term integrated planning and discussion.

Outlook for Installed Capacity to 2035

Provided that the planned resources come into service and existing resources continue to operate, Ontario's existing, committed and directed resources would be sufficient to meet the flat demand outlook. There would also be enough flexibility to address a lower growth in demand or to adapt to new opportunities or priorities.

For more data on demand, conservation, supply, market and system operations, transmission and distribution, emissions, and system costs, see the Appendix B and modules below.

The IESO has also developed a series of seven modules to provide a detailed breakdown of the assumptions, facts and figures underpinning the report. The projections provided in these documents are based on drivers and factors that will develop over time and are best viewed as illustrating potential trends.