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Monday, February 29, 2016

Russian Airstrikes in Syria from February 17 - 28, 2016: Pre and Post Cessation of Hostilities

By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: Russia
has continued its air campaign in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,
despite the ongoing cessation of hostilities agreement that began on February
27. Russian airstrikes concentrated in opposition-held areas of northwestern
Syria on February 28, following a lull in Russian airstrikes on February 27. The
ceasefire, however, is largely holding, despite accusations from both pro- and
anti-regime elements of violations of the agreement. The Russian MoD reported nine violations of the
ceasefire by “terrorist”
groups, “moderate” opposition factions, and Turkey. Head
of the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) Riad Hijab accused Russian
warplanes of conducting 26
airstrikes on February
28 targeting opposition factions that have announced their commitment to the
truce. Hijab stressed that “negotiations will be unfeasible” amidst continued
Russian use of cluster munitions and persistent violations of the ceasefire by
the Syrian regime and its allies resulting in civilian casualties. Russian
airstrikes have reportedly targeted the headquarters of U.S.-backed TOW
anti-tank missile recipient Firqat al-Wasta in northern Hama Province on February 29. The likely continuation of Russian and
regime air operations against mainstream elements of the opposition throughout western
Syria under the guise of fighting terrorism will ultimately threaten the
stability of any sustainable ceasefire agreement.

Note: ISW did not assess any strike locations with high confidence from February 17-18, 2016

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.

Russian
airstrikes intensified significantly in the hours before the ceasefire went
into effect on February 27, with local reports claiming that as many as 100 Russian
strikes
targeted areas in northern Aleppo Province, alone. Russian strikes were
concentrated in western Aleppo Province, northern Homs Province, and in the
Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus in the ten days leading up to the ceasefire.
Russia nonetheless restarted its air operations against the Syrian opposition
in areas of northwestern Syria on February 28, following a 24-hour lull in
strikes.

The “cessation of hostiles” agreement as
defined by Russia is far from a nationwide ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of
Defense released the above map on February 27, stating that Russian air
operations have “completely stopped” in areas highlighted in green. Russia continues
to inaccurately portray the majority of opposition-held Syria as Jabhat al
Nusra-controlled, represented in blue in the map above. The likely continuation
of Russian air operations against mainstream elements of the opposition
throughout western Syria under the guise of fighting terrorism will ultimately
threaten the stability of any sustainable ceasefire agreement.