Will Venezuela abandon Chavismo?

By David Frum, CNN Contributor

Updated 2158 GMT (0558 HKT) February 19, 2014

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Protests in Venezuela – A member of the Bolivarian National Police clashes with protestors during a demonstration against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Saturday, May 10. Clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces have left more than 40 people dead and about 800 injured since February, according to officials.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan riot police stormed four encampments of opposition students on Thursday, May 8, across Caracas, including one in front of the United Nations headquarters in the capital city, detaining hundreds.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan National Guard personnel in riot gear dismantle a students' encampment in front of the U.N. headquarters in Caracas on May 8.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan riot police arrest a student taking part in an anti-government protest in Caracas on May 8.

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Protests in Venezuela – Members of the Venezuelan National Guard detain a man during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, on Saturday, April 26. Over several months, protesters unhappy with Venezuela's economy and rising crime have squared off against security forces.

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Protests in Venezuela – Demonstrators destroy a bank sign in Caracas during a protest against the government on Sunday, April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – Police officers shield themselves from fireworks thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – A man helps an injured demonstrator in Caracas on April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – A masked protester watches clashes with the National Police in Caracas on Thursday, April 17.

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Protests in Venezuela – A police officer runs from a fire set off by a Molotov cocktail thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 17.

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Protests in Venezuela – A masked anti-government demonstrator throws a tear gas canister back at National Police during clashes in Caracas on Saturday, April 12.

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Protests in Venezuela – A protester shouts for fellow demonstrators to not attack the National Police trapped under a highway with protesters during clashes on April 12.

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Protests in Venezuela – A student opposed to the Venezuelan government looks toward the National Police during a protest outside the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas on Thursday, April 3.

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Protests in Venezuela – An opposition student struggles with members of a pro-government group at the Central University of Venezuela on April 3.

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Protests in Venezuela – People shout insults at police Tuesday, April 1, during clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Caracas.

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Protests in Venezuela – Members of Venezuela's National Police clash with demonstrators in the Cachao sector of Caracas on Monday, March 31.

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Protests in Venezuela – Protesters clash with members of Venezuela's National Police during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro's government on Sunday, March 30, in Caracas.

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Protests in Venezuela – Officers stand guard during an anti-government march in Caracas on Saturday, March 29.

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Protests in Venezuela – Thousands fill the streets of Caracas on Saturday, March 22, during an anti-government protest. Meanwhile, a crowd of pro-government students marched against what they called "fascist violence."

Protests erupt in Venezuela – An activist is taken by police during an anti-government protest in Caracas on March 13.

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Protests in Venezuela – Police officers put out a Molotov cocktail on March 13.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan students clash with riot police during a protest against the government on Wednesday, March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Students walk amid tear gas shot by riot police in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters run from a water cannon blast shot by police in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A police officer is removed from the front line of clashes after being overwhelmed by tear gas in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An injured protester is helped away in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A riot policeman kicks back a tear gas bomb during a protest in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester throws a tear gas canister in Altamira, Venezuela, on Sunday, March 9.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police keep formation during protests against the government in Caracas on Saturday, March 8.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members arrest an anti-government protester during clashes in the Los Ruices neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, March 6.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members take cover as a firecracker launched by protesters explodes nearby in Caracas on Wednesday, March 5.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An activist throws tear gas back at riot police during a protest against the government March 5 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with the National Guard during a protest in Caracas on Tuesday, March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members are deployed in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester throws a tear gas canister toward National Guard members in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Anti-government demonstrators gather during a protest in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters destroy a wall March 4 to get more rocks to throw at riot police in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members detain a protester March 4 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A National Guard officer points a tear gas launcher at demonstrators in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters use a giant slingshot to launch stones at police during clashes in Caracas on Monday, March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members throw tear gas canisters toward opposition activists in Caracas on March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester tries to throw a homemade bomb during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester ducks during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A National Guard member shoots tear gas during protests in Caracas on March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A masked protester with a makeshift shield kicks a tear gas canister launched by the National Guard during clashes in Caracas on Sunday, March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Activists in Caracas march in protest against the government on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester hurls a Molotov cocktail at National Guard troops on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester shouts during clashes with government forces in Caracas on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard officers stand in formation after a patrol in Valencia, Venezuela, on Saturday, March 1.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with police forces in Caracas on March 1.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator attends a rally with human rights activists in Caracas on Friday, February 28.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas on February 28.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator throws a rock at police during an anti-government protest in Valencia on Wednesday, February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A policeman fires his shotgun to disperse protesters in Valencia on February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Women march to the National Guard headquarters in Caracas on February 26 to protest what they call excessive use of force against anti-government demonstrations.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An employee of a supermarket in Maracay, Venezuela, inspects the damage done by looters on February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man stands next to a burning street barricade during a protest against the Venezuelan government in Caracas on Monday, February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Henrique Capriles, an opposition leader and governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda, joins in a news conference February 24 in Caracas. Opposition leaders and government officials blame each other for the unrest, and both sides show no sign of backing down.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A pedestrian moves past a burning barricade blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro acknowledges the crowd during a motorcycle rally organized in support of his government February 24 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lilian Tintori de Lopez, the wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, center, walks hand in hand with actress Norkys Batista, left, and lawmaker Maria Corina Machado as they arrive for a news conference in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A motorcyclist, left, argues with demonstrators blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man wearing a T-shirt with the likeness of Latin American hero Simon Bolivar joins in a pro-government march in Caracas on Sunday, February 23.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man carries a woman overcome by tear gas that was fired at anti-government protesters in Caracas on Saturday, February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Anti-government protesters take cover during clashes with riot police in Caracas on February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands take to the streets of Caracas on February 22 to protest the government.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lilian Tintori de Lopez attends an anti-government demonstration in Caracas on February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A Venezuelan protester waves a flag in front of a burning barricade in Caracas on Friday, February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters face National Guard troops in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A woman waves a Venezuelan flag out of her Caracas window on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A masked protester sprays a flammable substance on a barricade during protests in Caracas on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Barricades set up by opposition protesters block a road in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, February 20.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester adds fuel to a fire during clashes with police in Caracas on February 20.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters light fires during an anti-government demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters throw stones at riot police in Caracas on February 19. Protesters have been demanding better security, an end to scarcities, and protected freedom of speech.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Members of the National Police protect themselves during a protest in Caracas on February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Two women sit in front of a line of National Guard officers outside the Palace of Justice in Caracas on February 19.

Protests erupt in Venezuela – A supporter of Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez protests outside of the Palace of Justice in Caracas on February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Leopoldo Lopez is escorted by members of the Venezuelan National Guard on Tuesday, February 18, after turning himself in to authorities.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lopez supporters light fires in the streets of Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands of demonstrators gather in support of Lopez in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester faces riot police February 18 during a march in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – President Maduro raises his fist during a rally in Caracas on February 18, in this photo released by the Venezuelan government. Maduro and his supporters have blamed the opposition for causing the very problems it protests.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester confronts the National Guard as they block the path leading to downtown Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with the National Guard during demonstrations in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Demonstrators stand on a highway during a protest outside La Carlota airport in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A young woman argues with members of the Venezuelan National Guard during an anti-government protest in Caracas on Monday, February 17.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A group of protesters raise their hands during a demonstration in Caracas on Sunday, February 16. The country has an inflation rate of 56.2%, the highest in the world, and many basic goods are missing from store shelves.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator shouts for riot police not to fire tear gas in Caracas on Saturday, February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A student protester returns a tear gas canister to riot police on February 15 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Riot police stand during clashes in Caracas on February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands of students lie on the ground during a protest in front of the Venezuelan Judiciary building in Caracas on February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Students stand in front of police February 14 outside the Caracas headquarters for the Organization of American States.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – On Thursday, February 13, relatives, friends and pro-government supporters carry the coffin of a man who was killed during a protest in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez greets supporters during a demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, February 12. Lopez was charged with murder, terrorism and arson in connection with the protests, according to his party, Popular Will. Lopez denies the accusations, the party said in a statement.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – The body of a protester is carried away after gunshots were fired during an anti-government rally in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police detain a student in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester walks past a line of riot police in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator is detained after jumping over a riot police line in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Riot police protect themselves during an opposition rally in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police detain a student during clashes in Caracas on February 12.

Story highlights

Frum: Venezuela's economy is struggling; regime won't find it easy to buy support

A week of demonstrations in Venezuela. Three people shot dead; dozens wounded; dozens more arrested and imprisoned. Pro-regime thugs intimidate protesting high school and college students. The question is being asked: Is Chavismo finally cracking in Venezuela?

Hugo Chavez died of cancer nearly a year ago, and the question hanging over Venezuela is how long his strange regime can live after him.

A country with a population smaller than Canada's has more murders than the United States. Inflation exceeds 56%. Goods from toilet paper to sacramental wine have vanished from shops. A regime that calls itself "socialist" has massively enriched the former president's family and friends. Street lights dim at night because a country with some of the world's largest energy reserves cannot provide enough electricity.

The Chavez regime has held power with four principal tools, all but one of which is gone or going.

David Frum

The first tool of power was the late president's own mesmerizing personality. Venezuela has a bitter national history, and nobody has ever better voiced the resentments and yearnings of its subordinated classes and castes than Hugo Chavez. In a nation whose elite historically looked European, Chavez's face proclaimed his descent from indigenous people and African slaves. He joked, he raged, he bestowed favors on the barrios and made enemies of the traditional upper classes.

By contrast, the outstanding personal quality of Chavez's chosen successor, Nicolas Maduro, was his cringing deference to the leader who elevated him from a bus driver's seat to the top jobs in government.

The second Chavez tool of power was the shrewd deployment of the nation's oil wealth to buy support from favored constituencies. Support Chavez, and you might get a free house stocked with appliances, a government job or at least a new playground.

Chavez held the price of gasoline to pennies per gallon and offered subsidized rice and beans in government-owned shops. Meanwhile, he withdrew police protection from the wealthier neighborhoods that despised him, deploying criminal violence as a de facto tool of political repression.

Now, however, Venezuela is running out of cash to pay for these support-buying schemes. Industries are shuttering because they cannot obtain foreign currency to buy crucial parts. Interest rates on Venezuelan debt have jumped past 15%. The economy, which managed 1% growth in 2013, is now shrinking as economic activity other than oil and gas production grinds to a stop.

Chavez's third tool of power was control of the media. Independent television stations were eliminated. Newsprint shortages and other pressures were manipulated to force the sale of independent print media to government supporters. But it's difficult to cut populations off from information in the modern age, especially for a ramshackle, technically incompetent regime like Venezuela under Chavismo. Venezuela is not China nor even Putin's Russia. The people who understand how the Internet works overwhelmingly oppose the government.

The fourth and last tool of power was outright repression. Chavez himself always used this tool sparingly. He preferred economic reprisals against his opponents to violence. He drove them into exile rather than send them to camps. He politicized the army and police, but he hesitated to use them, perhaps because he did not in the end fully trust them.

When I visited Venezuela in 2010, everybody was talking about elite Cuban paramilitary police units that Chavez had supposedly borrowed from Fidel Castro. But change is coming to Cuba too, and if the units ever existed, they certainly have not been visible in the past's weeks clashes. Instead, Maduro has relied on local thugs.

Perhaps the Syrian example inspires Maduro to hope that he can hang on if his forces just kill enough people. But Venezuela is located in a very different neighborhood, close not only to the United States but also to democracies in Colombia and Brazil that take a dim view of murderous dictatorship. (Maduro has said that the opposition is mounting a "developing coup" and has issued an arrest warrant on conspiracy and murder charges against an opposition leader; the opposition leader's party blames the government for the violence.)

Chavez had an instinctive awareness that he could go so far but not too far. Whether Chavez's successor shares that awareness of limits, those limits still exist -- and without crossing them, Chavez's regime may have run out of the resources it needs to survive.

As the Castro regime in Cuba has demonstrated, a moribund authoritarian system can take a long time dying. But the Castro brothers were serious about hanging on to power. Chavismo was serious about nothing.