As Pakistani's Popularity Slides, 'Busharraf' Is a Figure of Ridicule

The man chosen to provide the local muscle in America's campaign against terrorism is finding himself with hardly a friend at home.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's dictator, who bet his future on a post-Sept. 11 alliance with the West, has lost considerable popular support as he has forced a series of dramatic changes on this Islamic country at the behest of his foreign allies, according to recent interviews with dozens of Pakistanis.

Nine months after joining the Western coalition against terrorism, General Musharraf, 58, is isolated in his own land, increasingly a figure of ridicule and the focus of a growing anti-Western fury that is shared by Islamic militants and the middle class alike.

The decline in the general's fortunes represents an abrupt turnaround since last autumn, when he was hailed at home and in the West as a reform-minded Muslim leader in the mold of Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey and one of the general's heroes.

The general's hold over the army and at least the upper echelons of Pakistan's powerful intelligence services is not in doubt, for now, and there appears to be no immediate threat to his power. But at no time since Sept. 11 has he appeared as isolated or vulnerable.

General Musharraf's dutiful carrying out of Washington's demands is galvanizing a widespread feeling here that he has largely traded away Pakistan's sovereignty to the United States and that Pakistan's new policy toward Kashmir is the latest in a series of humiliations he has endured at America's hand. With F.B.I. agents now joining in raids of suspected hideouts of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the anti-American sentiment here has reached a peak.

Indeed, General Musharraf has become so closely identified with the Americans that he has even earned a nickname on Pakistan's streets: ''Busharraf.''

A nationwide referendum on his rule two months ago was regarded so widely as fraudulent that the general was forced to acknowledge the nation's anger publicly.

His decision this spring to block the infiltration of Islamic fighters into the Indian-held part of Kashmir, while averting a war with India, is prompting threats of revenge from the militants.

''If America stops its support, Musharraf wouldn't last for a day,'' said Usman Majeed, 31, a businessman in Islamabad, echoing the sentiment of many middle-class Pakistanis. ''Musharraf is doing all these unconstitutional things because he has America's support. But America is not our friend.''

While no public opinion polls are available to judge the general's performance, many anecdotal indicators, like his portrayal in the press and comments from political and business leaders around the country, suggest that public confidence in him has eroded markedly in recent months.

A vivid illustration of the general's changing fortunes can be found in an influential Pakistani monthly, The Herald. After General Musharraf's major speech on Jan. 12, when he proposed to turn the country away from militant Islam, he appeared on the magazine's cover, dressed in a white tunic and gesturing boldly under the headline ''Musharraf's New Pakistan.''

Two months later he appeared on the cover again, his face bloated and sweating, hiding behind a mask of Gen. Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan's dictator in the 1980's, who is widely reviled for his brutality and for supporting the forces of militant Islam. The headline: ''Games Dictators Play.''

''I think he missed his opportunity,'' said Afrasiab Khattak, a lawyer and human rights advocate in Peshawar. ''Once he had the public behind him. But now he has chosen only to perpetuate his own power.''

As his popularity ebbs, the general is making efforts to shore up his rule.

Last week he announced that he was considering rewriting the Constitution to give himself the power to dissolve Parliament and dismiss the prime minister in any future elected government. With the general widely expected to hold parliamentary elections in the fall, many analysts here say he is setting the stage for an almost certain confrontation.

After the events of Sept. 11, when President Bush offered General Musharraf the stark choice of helping the West or opposing it, he embarked on a bold course intended to lead this Islamic republic down a more moderate and secular path.

He withdrew support for the Taliban, the militant Islamic group that ruled neighboring Afghanistan and which his country's intelligence agencies had helped to create, and orchestrated a crackdown against militant Islamic groups that had long sent fighters to Afghanistan and Kashmir and were threatening to radicalize Pakistan itself.

At the time, General Musharraf demonstrated a combination of boldness and agility that enabled him to prevail in the face of extraordinary pressures. He faced down his critics and outmaneuvered his enemies, particularly the Islamists within his army.

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To do that he relied on the support of the vast majority of Pakistanis who share his vision of moderate Islam and who were willing to set aside their desires for a more democratic government.

But the general's nimbleness seems to have failed him, and the people have taken notice.

General Musharraf's eroding fortunes present American officials with a quandary: if they keep pushing the leader of Pakistan to help prosecute the campaign against the terrorism and to avoid a potentially catastrophic war on the subcontinent, they may also contribute to his downfall.

American officials have long worried about the prospect of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands, particularly in case of a takeover by Islamic militants. At the very least it seems likely that domestic pressures may force the general to balk at future American demands, particularly insistence that he continue to shut down the flow of insurgents into Kashmir.

General Musharraf may yet regain his footing. He still commands the support of a large number of Pakistanis, particularly those who see him as the only alternative to rule by conservative mullahs or by elected thieves.

Even in a country as vibrant as Pakistan, with a relatively free press and an outspoken populace, the general need not fear a public rebellion yet. As long as the army remains unified behind him, he will probably be able to continue in office.

The concern among some Pakistanis, though, is that he may rule in a vacuum. As his support fades, he will feel less and less confident to make politically difficult choices, like taking on the militants who want to fight in Kashmir.

''There is a growing perception that Musharraf is a weak person, a weak commander, who continuously retreats,'' said A. H. Nayyar, a physics professor at Qaid-e-Azam University.

For now the more immediate danger is an attack by one of the many militant groups that have made the general their enemy. A senior Pakistani official said last week that suspected members of Al Qaeda imprisoned at Guantánamo Bay had told their American interrogators of a plot to kill General Musharraf for his perceived betrayal.

Security around him has been beefed up recently, the official said, and he is so concerned about traitors in his ranks that he often carries his own handgun.

Some militant groups, blocked for the first time from moving into the Indian side of Kashmir, are vowing to strike back. Some people worry that militants may be conspiring with some elements inside the Pakistan Army to destabilize the general's government.

''No Pakistani leader has ever betrayed Kashmir and survived,'' said Yahya Mujahid, a leader of Lashkar-e-Taiba, or the Army of the Pure, which has been outlawed by the Pakistani government and deemed a terrorist organization by the United States. ''We are angry.''

The last Pakistani leader who showed weakness over Kashmir was Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who under pressure from the United States and India withdrew his forces from the Kargil region of India three years ago. Two months later, he was overthrown and arrested.

The man who toppled him, of course, was General Musharraf, the leader of the Pakistan Army.

Some Pakistanis have begun to speculate that Islamic militants inside the military may try to topple General Musharraf, especially if he continues to block the militants in Kashmir. For years the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence trained and armed Islamic radicals to fight in places like Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Severing that connection might be more difficult than simply issuing an order.

''The army is a very disciplined force, but the president has taken actions against the broad national sentiments,'' said Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, a retired chief of the intelligence agency and a supporter of militant Islamic groups. ''Its discipline could be tested.''

Outside the army, there is discontent among many moderate Pakistanis who see signs that General Musharraf's stifling of democracy is beginning to push Pakistani society into the hands of the militants.

''America is making things worse by supporting the general,'' said Mr. Khattak, the Peshawar lawyer. ''After Sept. 11, democracy is indispensable here. Only democracy can root out terrorism.''