The national economy may barely be chugging along, but the pace is better in Houston.

In assessing the third quarter, a panel of experts assembled by the Chronicle focused on Houston's strong job growth - the highest by percentage of the 12 largest metros in the nation - which is buoyed by the surging energy industry. The number of jobs in the area grew by 2.6 percent from September 2010 to September 2011, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Also contributing to the area's relative economic strength are a real estate market that isn't suffering from as many foreclosure problems as other cities and manufacturing gains that create high-paying jobs.

Those factors should continue to boost Houston's fortunes, according to the panel - with expertise in banking, purchasing management, recruiting and real estate - although its members vary in their assessment of how much economic strength they expect. And even with the jobs growth, unemployment remains a worry.

"I think it's trying to come back," he said. But at the moment? "I think it's just holding on."

Housing is flat, said Thompson, CEO and founder of the Thompson Group, an engineering and consulting firm. Construction firms are trying to keep their doors open.

He's betting things will turn around early next year as the presidential election boosts political focus on job creation. Businesses likely will gain more confidence and do more hiring.

Q: Are there some sectors doing better than others? Any doing worse?

A: Health care is one big standout and so is oil and gas, said Pam Lovett, director of business development and community affairs for Comerica Bank in Houston.

Houston has regained all the jobs it lost during the recession in those key sectors, said Lovett. And that, in turn, is fueling other growth, she added, pointing to health care-related construction.

She expects oil and gas companies to launch similar expansions as they add more employees and outgrow their office space.

Valant said manufacturers also are reporting improved sales. They're adding employees because they've got orders to fill, he noted.

As for the downside? Thompson said real estate is suffering from lack of financing and lower demand for homes and construction.

Adams said high-end luxury retail is treading water. While stores in that sector are doing well enough to keep existing shops open, they're not opening new ones.

Q: What will it take for more businesses to start hiring?

A: "I think they will have to see some sign that the economy is on the upswing," said Thompson. Banks will have to get more confident about recovery and make more loans.

"Money is pretty tight," he said.

Businesses also need to feel more confident in the face of global financial uncertainty, said Lovett.

Business leaders need to believe that the growth they're seeing is not in isolation, she said,and that the Houston economy is moving in the right direction.

Nonetheless, Valant said, job growth has picked up since January as employers try to meet sales and production demands. And they're not letting people go.

Q: Are you seeing any signs of life in residential real estate? Are houses starting to move or is Houston still too bogged down by lingering foreclosure problems?

A: Generally speaking, Houston's residential real estate market is holding up better than other places, said Adams. Home sales and home prices are up slightly compared with a year ago, and there's even new construction in some parts of the region, including The Woodlands and Cinco Ranch.

But other pockets in the region are not seeing that growth, especially those areas that have been hit by foreclosures, he said.

Thompson said foreclosures are plaguing Houston neighborhoods, even if the area doesn't have the same foreclosure problems as Las Vegas, Phoenix or Miami.

"The jobs aren't there," he said. "People are being laid off. They can't keep up their mortgage payments. It's a trickle-down effect. You see it in a lot of residential neighborhoods."

That, in turn, means that builders are eliminating jobs and some are going out of business.

"I don't see any movement in housing," he said. "Very little to any."

Q: What kind of holiday season are you expecting this year? Will Houstonians be opening their wallets because they're feeling prosperous, or doing what they can to pay down their debts?

A: Valant is betting it will be a good holiday season. More people are working and they feel more confident about spending money.

That confidence extends to Valant, who is taking his wife on a long-awaited overseas vacation as an anniversary gift.

"I feel more comfortable," he said.

Lovett believes consumers have more confidence but they've also become more prudent because of the recession.

"I think there will be more spending," she said, but consumers are reluctant to take on new debt. Being a careful shopper has become a badge of honor.

Thompson said people are trying to pay off their debt and won't spend as much as in previous years. That frugality will also extend to the Thompson household, where there will be fewer and less expensive gifts this year.

Q: Do you see signs that energy companies are gearing up for the resumption of drilling in the Gulf of Mexico now that the government is issuing permits, or staffing up because of the shale boom?

A: They're definitely staffing up because of the shale boom, said Lovett.

The surge in exploration in shale and other challenging formations has been possible because of new technology, she said, much of it developed in Houston.

Adams said that he, too, is hearing more about the shale plays. And when he's hearing about drilling, it's not in the Gulf of Mexico but in Southeast Asia and other overseas locations.

Valant said he regularly fields calls from recruiters looking for a wide variety of supply chain strategists who can work on oil and gas drilling projects both in the United States and in the Middle East. Sometimes the openings are for managers to oversee the placement of supplies in case of emergencies; other times it's to improve the efficiency of the supply chain.

"This is something I haven't seen until the last month or so," said Valant, who said recruiters call him because of his role with the Institute for Supply Management survey.