. . . The fifth day of the tournament features the smallest fight card. Only seven matches this day, but each one a fight between the greatest Transformers who ever lived. The crowd is buzzing with anticipation and a sense that something very special will be witnessed on this day. The sounds of the crowd will disappear when the first match begins, as each spectator will fall into eerie silence as they simply observe with their optical receptors during the course of the battle itself. At the completion of each fight, the robots will then turn on their vocal boxes to indicate their opinion of the events they just witnessed, only to fall into deadly silence upon the start of the next match.

In the staging area, the combatants are focused and reflective. The area remains cluttered and disorganized, but only the eight competitors remain, leaving room where additional robots had filled before. None of the Transformers takes advantage of the additional space. Any movement might expose a weakness. Instead they remain motionless, much like the crowd during the match, visualizing in their minds how they will defeat their next opponent.

All the warriors in the room are in some level of pain. Each focuses on winning, making the suffering they have endured pay off with the ultimate prize. Everyone understands that all but one will lose this day. None think of defeat, but each robot realizes that they must give everything they have in the battle to come, there can be no concern of tomorrow . . . .

The Tournament of Champions Bracket

Pre-Match AnalysisThe final bracket features 5 number 1-seeds, 2 number 2-seeds, and a number 3-seed to round it off. Most of the combatants here were expected, but surprising results have added faces that were not anticipated, especially Jetfire. Fortress Maximus, Optimus Prime, Hot Rod, and Galvatron appear to be the favorites, with the last two squaring off in the first round.

Results for Round 1Optimus Prime vs. SkywarpThis one went the full 5 games, and it was the Decepticon to come on top!Jetfire vs. ShockwaveThis one did not go the distance, and that was not a surprise. The surprise was when Jetfire took 3 of 4 from the more powerful opponent. Two matches in, and nothing is going as planned.Hot Rod vs. GalvatronThis one also ended unexpectedly, but not in an upset. The higher seed, Galvatron, took the honors, and it took 4 games to get there instead of going the anticipated 5 full games.Fortress Maximus vs. SixshotThis was the one match to end exactly as you would expect, with a 3-0 thrashing by the hands of Fort Max.

Results for Round 2Skywarp vs. JetfireIn the battle of the jets, this match went the full length and saw Skywarp prevail.Galvatron vs. Fortress MaximusThis battle also went the maximum games, and also resulted in a Decepticon win. A Fort Max coronation was not to be.

Results for Round 3Anyone see Skywarp vs. Galvatron coming? Reality finally came down on the Jet, as Galvatron took things 3-1, securing the first ever Tournament of Champions Trophy.

Post-Match AnalysisIf Megatron had not lost his final match against Skywarp, we could have seen a Megatron vs. Galvatron final. But it was not to be. Galvatron earned his trophy at the hands of two of the greatest Autobots of all time. Some may dismiss his victory given he did not face either of the Primes, but they had their chances and were found wanting. Maybe next year.

With the tournament over it’s time to hand out awards, so here they are:

Well, that’s all folks! I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did in putting this together. If this is of interest, I can do this again next year; just let me know. The file I used to do this simulation is now on my website at jeffreylawrencemoss.info (jlmoss.info will get you there too). The file also contains the full results and brackets for this tournament.

Roll out!

. . . .Galvatron stands in the middle of the ring. Worker robots scurry to drag the remains of Skywarp from the battle area. The crowd cheers loudly. There is no room for the spectators to move their arms, so they turn their optical sensors on and off, resulting in their eyes blinking like a silent clap to match their vocalized approval. A smile upon his face, the first of the tournament, graces Galvatron’s somewhat distorted visage. Battle scars run all over his body. But for this one moment, all of that is forgotten. He can now claim his rightful place as the greatest of the Tranformers. This is not just an individual victory. This is a recruitment bonanza. This is the start of a major campaign to heighten the dominance of the Decepticons. Detractors like Shockwave and Starscream will scurry into the darkness – such a public competition has made Galvatron’s rule untouchable. Nothing but greatness lies ahead . . . .

My philosophy was to use the actual numbers that appeared on the box at the time the toys were first sold. I am aware of some of the inconsistencies with the numbers and the text descriptions, but chose to have the numbers take precedence over the text. That's just my personal preference.

You can easily make the changes you'd like in my file and then run your own simulation. It's pretty easy to do. Let me know if you need any help with this.

mossman wrote:My philosophy was to use the actual numbers that appeared on the box at the time the toys were first sold. I am aware of some of the inconsistencies with the numbers and the text descriptions, but chose to have the numbers take precedence over the text. That's just my personal preference.

You can easily make the changes you'd like in my file and then run your own simulation. It's pretty easy to do. Let me know if you need any help with this.

So is Rank weighted differently than Strength or Speed? In a one-on-one fight, Rank wouldn't matter much. I'm intrigued by all of this. As a kid, I was obsessed with tech spec numbers. Now I'm 36 and I find myself remembering those numbers as if I was 8 again... Oh, and I know who the Aquabats are.

I used to play a game with a friend where we had a pile of Autobot Tech Specs, a pile of Decep Tech Specs, and cards that read - Strength, Speed, etc. Each side would blindly choose a tech spec and a card would be flipped. If one with Strength was flipped, the tech spec with the higher Strength would win. If it was a tie, they would stay in "the pot". The most I ever got in one turn was 10 thanks to Bluestreak's Firepower...

Motto:"Where is this global warming that scientists talk about this winter?"

Weapon: Neptune Sword

buddhaquest wrote:

mossman wrote:My philosophy was to use the actual numbers that appeared on the box at the time the toys were first sold. I am aware of some of the inconsistencies with the numbers and the text descriptions, but chose to have the numbers take precedence over the text. That's just my personal preference.

You can easily make the changes you'd like in my file and then run your own simulation. It's pretty easy to do. Let me know if you need any help with this.

So is Rank weighted differently than Strength or Speed? In a one-on-one fight, Rank wouldn't matter much. I'm intrigued by all of this. As a kid, I was obsessed with tech spec numbers. Now I'm 36 and I find myself remembering those numbers as if I was 8 again... Oh, and I know who the Aquabats are.

I used to play a game with a friend where we had a pile of Autobot Tech Specs, a pile of Decep Tech Specs, and cards that read - Strength, Speed, etc. Each side would blindly choose a tech spec and a card would be flipped. If one with Strength was flipped, the tech spec with the higher Strength would win. If it was a tie, they would stay in "the pot". The most I ever got in one turn was 10 thanks to Bluestreak's Firepower...

Buddhaquest, may I make a suggestion? Rank may not matter so much itself, let's assume that of high rank also tend to have a lot experience in combat and/or knowledge of military strategy and tactics. The longer you fight in war- the more you know the enemy's tactics, style, tendencies, tricks, weakness, etc. Consider replacing rank with experience or combat wisdom. For most tfs, the numbers should be same (notable exceptions Ironhide and Kup probably much experience than rank would say).

At one point I did an analysis of the impact of each stat to see how they affected the overall results in my model. Unfortunately, it's been about 3 months ago since I've done that, and I didn't save the results. But as I recall, rank didn't factor much into the overall results. I can't remember if it was the least influential stat or not, but it was certainly among the lowest.

I seem to recall the method I used to determine this. I created one robot who was perfect 10s, and pitted that robot against another who was also perfect 10s with the exception of one value which was set at 5. I then simulated a thousand fights and recorded what percentage of the time the strong robot won.

I just reran that particular match up (with rank at 5 for the weaker opponent) and I see the stronger opponent just won 50.8% of the time. So Rank is a factor, but it doesn't have much impact. For comparison, I also re-ran the simulation, but swapped strength for rank. In that case, the stronger opponent won 57.0% of the time, which shows how much more important this attribute is in my model.

I guess, in the end, I just wanted to use all the numbers, but recognizing the point against using rank at all, I tried to ensure it's impact was there but minimal.