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New Hampshire 2012 primary: 5 things to watch

Pre-primary New Hampshire polling is notoriously off the mark. | Reuters

There’s no question that Paul has a very strong — and devoted — base of fans. But if he under-performs in a second contest , it’s not going to help his efforts to keep going past Super Tuesday to the Tampa convention, where he’ll make a stand with his delegates.

Huntsman is also making a big play for the swath of independents who are voting in the GOP primary — and who are up for grabs thanks to the lack of a race on the Democratic side. He and Paul appeal to a similar segment of the electorate in that regard, and it’s not clear who will win out.

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The main focus is on the competition between Paul and Huntsman for second place. But Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are locked in a minibattle of their own over who comes in fourth and fifth.

Santorum, who didn’t seem to capture much of an Iowa bounce heading into New Hampshire, could re-establish himself ahead of South Carolina as the conservative alternative to Romney by finishing ahead of Gingrich.

The same is true for Gingrich, who is mounting a furious and uphill climb back toward viability. If Gingrich finishes ahead of Santorum, he could end up positioning himself as the candidate to whom conservatives turn in the Palmetto State.

Either way, Gingrich and Santorum share the same hard-right space in the primary, meaning they siphon votes from each other. (Rick Perry, the other candidate for their market space, folded his New Hampshire tent and is now in South Carolina).

Neither has invested huge amounts of money in the Granite State, in part because of a lack of resources for both states throughout much of the year. They also didn’t invest heavily in time until this past week, largely thanks to Romney’s dominance here.

4) Will the polling be screwy?

Pre-primary New Hampshire polling is notoriously off the mark.

For example, George W. Bush was thought to be within reasonable proximity of John McCain heading into the Granite State in the 2000 campaign, only to see the Arizona maverick beat him by 19 percentage points.

Still, it’s extremely hard to envision a scenario in which the polls are wrong about Romney winning. As for the rest of the field, it’s quite possible that they will finish in a different order than expected.

5) Will there be a Union Leader bounce?

The Manchester paper, conservative-leaning and widely read, gave Gingrich a huge boost heading into the final weeks by endorsing him.

The value of the paper’s endorsement was on full display in the 2008 cycle when, after backing McCain, the UL edit-heads excoriated Romney almost daily.

This time, with Gingrich clearly stumbling,the paper has been harsh about Romney but with far less frequency.

So the question remains — will the Union Leader give Newt a slight boost in the areas where its circulation is highest?

Voters are upset with Gingrich's condemning American Capitalism and job-creation. Conservatives, Tea Party movement and Moderates are now defending Mitt Romney. Everyone expected Obama to be a Socialist but Gingrich was a surprise. Those that attack America's greatness will suffer at the voting booths.

The main thing to watch will be the extreme partisanship of the left-wing media. Whatever the results are, they will be used to attack ALL the Republican candidates.

We saw the bias of the press on full display during the debates. The main problem facing the country now is overspending by an out-of-control government. But since the profligate spender is a socialist Democrat, this little item is never brought up. Instead you have Democratic operatives masquerading as news people firing off questions about whether states have the right to ban contraceptives - trying to get some sort of "gotcha" statement that can be used to attack the Republicans later on

I expect to see the mainstream news bias get ever more rabid and dishonest as the campaign goes on.

In New Hampshire, where Paul has also devoted lots of time and built up a strong ground game, polls are showing him flagging ahead of the primary vote.

I wish Maggie would make a minor effort to add a teaspoon of objectivity to her assessments of Ron Paul. Ron Paul has risen steadily in New Hampshire polls. It's just objective fact that you can quickly verify by going over to Politoco's own 2011 Live Presidential Polls page. One need not be a statistician to understand that continuous increase in polls is the opposite of "flagging".

Instead you have Democratic operatives masquerading as news people firing off questions about whether states have the right to ban contraceptives

It's debate moderators JOB to ask questions relavent to the candidates. It's EXTREMELY important for otherwise ininterested voters to know that a candidate would be for banning contraception (if they thinks it's OK for a state to do it, then they are probably for banning it themselves).

If all you knew about a candidate that he wants to tell you who you can have sex with (nobody until you're married) and that you can't use birth control, you would know A LOT.

As a New Hampshire native, I only support Dr. Ron Paul.I have been polled upteen times and never once did I let the pollsters know who or what I support!!!

All the other candidates are basiclly the same (including Obama). Here is why:

In '06 "W" wanted to raise the debt ceiling, the Republicans supported him and voted to raise the ceiling. Meanwhile the Democrats voted against raising the ceiling. Obama went on record (as a Senator) stating "it is a lack of leadership to raise the debt ceiling". In '10, Obama wanted to raise the debt ceiling and the same Democrats who voted against raising the ceiling now support it, while the Republicans who supported it 4 years earlier, now vote against it. WTF????????

I may not agree with all of Ron Paul's policies but at least I know where he stands and I am confident he will not change with the wind like all these other Dem's AND Republicans do!!!

-Why anybody vote for a guy------------- moe Newt you can lose ------------------------that

published anti-semetic Newsletter for over ten years and claimed to not know it. Duh, Talk about having your head stuck in the sand.. Does not make any sense to me. It`s time to call the liars to taskI do not think Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich would make good President.. Romney at least seems somewhat competent.

It's all about perception and expectations. My own view is that most of the Republican candidates will leave New Hampshire winners of delegates. No one candidate will win a lot of delegates. I expect Romney to have a handful more than the others on the long battle road to 1,144 delegates. As long as candidates are perceived to be potential winners in the end (Tampa), there will be those that supply money and debates enough to keep the individual campaigns going. Huntsman will surge and join the fray in South Carolina, weakening Romney further. I see a race shaping up, not an over-before-it-begins Republican Party coronation. (Anyway, that's what I hope to see. I can't help it: I get a positive kick out of seeing democracy in action.)

Why in GODS name should anyone take seriously your 5 points. We know all of you are hacks for the dem. party. You wouldn't know know 5 points unless they were made for your fraud-in-chief. You take all your talking points from the west wing and we know it. What would be refreshing is for you and the rest of the staff to be honest and report with integrity. But the TRUTH is none of you have either virtue. It is truly sad in MY COUNTRY what all of you have become. I would tell you that you should be ashamed but I realize none of you are capable of it. You remain pathetic and guess what WE THE PEOPLE know it. I guess your boss soros pays you well. You have betrayed MY COUNTRY and the WE THE PEOLE know it.

Breaking new poll...............Conservatives like Mitt Romney the most, who knew.

Majority of Conservatives See Romney as "Acceptable" Only Romney now seen as acceptable by majority of Republicans..........vote for Mitt so he can FIRE Obama....

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney is the now the only candidate that a majority of conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans nationwide see as an "acceptable" GOP nominee for president. Conservative Republicans are more likely to say Romney would be an acceptable nominee than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.

Voters are upset with Gingrich's condemning American Capitalism and job-creation.

Who are you kidding? Our economy is NOT driven by capitalism, but by crony corporatism. All one has to do is look at the donors of the candidates. OpenSecrets . com. If you compare 2008 Obama top donors and 2012 Romney top donors, you will see that Goldman Sachs heads both lists. Obama was bought by the banksters and Romney is bought by the banksters. No wonder why Romney supported the banker bailout - they own him too.

No other GOP candidate is getting major endorsements except for Mitt............GingRich got endorsed by Todd Palin yesterday........please.

That is because the GOP major endorsers are Establishment Status Quo. Why would they endorse someone who would decrease the government critters' power over the People and rightfully return it BACK to the People?