On Tim Lincecum’s 2010 salary, and one Giant motivation to hold it down

Yesterday, it was reported in this space that the Giants explored a two-year contract with Tim Lincecum that was deemed “insignificant,” and that agent Rick Thurman expected the case to reach the arbitration hearing stage.

There have been a few follow-up reports from other folks today that added a few more details. First, GM Brian Sabean confirmed to a team publicist that yes, the club broached a two-year deal that went nowhere, and yes, it looked like both sides were headed to a hearing.

Then Jon Heyman of SI.com added his opinion, saying a hearing would work against the Giants whether they win or lose. (Although my sources tell me that Lincecum is taking this whole thing in stride.)

Heyman made another very good point in his column: This kind of thing wouldn’t have happened under former owner Peter Magowan, who paid his stars like stars.

I agree with that statement, although I’d add that another seemingly unrelated factor is coming into play here:

The Giants’ territorial turf war over San Jose.

Two entirely different issues, you say? Not really.

We all know that Magowan’s replacement, Bill Neukom, has positioned himself for a major battle over preventing MLB from overturning the Giants’ claim to the South Bay. Last year, the Giants even bought a portion of the Single-A club in town. (And have you noticed the San Jose Giants are even switching uniforms to look more like the parent club next season?) The Giants have been murkily tied to efforts from the San Francisco City Attorney’s office and a local coalition in San Jose to prevent the A’s from relocating, too.

The reasons for the bunker mentality are well known. The Giants attract a significant percentage of their corporate sponsorships, season-ticket and suite sales, ballpark advertising revenue, etc., from companies in Silicon Valley. Their ownership group is a who’s’ who of the tech sector. It’s part of their identity as well as their bottom line. They simply cannot afford to let the A’s cut into their interests in Santa Clara County.

And what’s the only way their territorial rights can be overturned? A three-quarters vote of the 30 major league owners, who’ll basically do whatever Commissioner Bud Selig tells them to do.

How does Lincecum and his arbitration status enter the equation? It’s simple. The No.1 way to tick off baseball’s owners is to establish a new salary threshhold. And Lincecum has a very good chance to clear Ryan Howard’s $10 million bar for a first-year arbitration player.

So you’d better believe the Giants and Neukom are going to snap into line as best they can. That means doing everything in their power to keep Lincecum’s 2010 salary under $10 million. (Thus, the two-year offer for what undoubtedly would’ve given Lincecum less money up front.)

Say whatever you want about Magowan, but he wouldn’t have allowed his fellow owners or the commissioner’s office to influence his actions one bit. Not when it comes to his ultra-popular, star players.

On more than one occasion, Magowan told me the story about signing Barry Bonds to a record-setting contract at the winter meetings in Louisville merely hours after purchasing the Giants. Magowan retells the backroom events with a gleam in his eye. He knew he’d tick off the industry. He knew people like White Sox hawk Jerry Reinsdorf would be in his suite within 10 minutes, absolutely livid. He didn’t care. He knew the legitimacy Bonds’ star power would bring to the franchise and he went out and got it. And he was right.

This is the same Peter Magowan who worked out a stadium deal in which the organization had to foot the bill. It turned out great, of course. The ballpark is a palace on the waterfront, the envy of every team in the league. And for whatever reason, the Giants didn’t set a lasting precedent. Other teams have gotten stadiums built for them with taxpayer money. But at the time, there was a real danger the Giants were setting a terrible precedent (from the owners’ standpoint).

Of course, Magowan is no tidy character study. He was guilty of ego-padding excesses, too. His legacy always will include the Mitchell investigation, Greg Anderson and endless fawning to Bonds’ repeated demands. Who knew the word “enabler” could have such a slimy connotation.

But Tim Lincecum’s 2010 salary has nothing to do with Magowan. It has everything to do with Bill Neukom, Bud Selig and holding the line. It’s a new era in Giants baseball, in more ways than one.

Andrew Baggarly

Andrew Baggarly has documented the most eventful era in San Francisco Giants baseball history, having covered the team since 2004 for th​ree major media outlets including the San Jose Mercury News and the Oakland Tribune​. This is his 20th season as a baseball writer.
​Baggarly is the author of the bestselling book, A Band of Misfits: Tales of the 2010 San Francisco Giants, and the newly published Giant Splash: Bondsian Blasts, World Series Parades and Other Thrilling Moments By the Bay. Baggarly’s other notable life accomplishments include running as the Bratwurst in the Milwaukee Sausage Race and becoming a three-time Jeopardy! champion.

I think your argument here is a complete junk. The owners care about making money and if a ballpark in SJ for the A’s will make them more money than it would cost them then they will allow Wolf to move. There are two sides to the A’s delima not just one.

The Giants look like idiots in this whole mess. Why can everyother team sign their players and the Giants drag their most important and best player through this process? It’s idiotic.

They should’ve addressed this last year. If Billy Beane was running this team they’d never miss the playoffs. Sabean is past his prime.

Come with a better argument next time Baggs….this wasn’t your best work.

prima facie

“They should’ve addressed this last year.”

They did. Tim Lincecum didn’t want to talk then.

disco Burrito Eater

You get ‘im Dave! Billy Beane’s been taking the A’s to the playoffs 3 years running now!

Hi

if it’s a new era, then sabean needs to go.

wfan1

Does Lincecum get paid if he has to go into drug rehab ?

mk

Lincecum and his agent might not want to sign a long term deal.

I’ll always thank Magowan for saving the Giants from Tampa Bay and for building the ball park. Giving his approval to sign “name” players to huge contracts is hard to judge. Barry was a great player BUT would he have been as good if he didn’t take, ahemm…”flax seed oil” and “clear?”
And the contract given to Zito…need I say more.

It’ll be interesting to see what Selig recommends regarding Bay Area baseball. He’s obviously in no hurry to decide.

Sharkalchemy

I rip on this front office as much as anyone and for good reason…however, on this one, I don’t think I’d sign him to the big deal just yet either.

I guess what Baggs is implying here, is that even if the Giants wanted to offer the 13 million, they have to posture against it because of this territorial issue and gaining favor with the owners.

I can believe that is the motivation for this front office, which is lame of course…too much fear. Field a damn winner and it won’t matter where the A’s play.

If they want to see one more healthy year from Tim and then load up on him with the big contract, that’s actually pretty smart. As good as he is and as much as he’s done, I wouldn’t blame any team wanting to make sure the skinny guy can get through one more season healthy at this point. Lock him down next year.

FluLikeSymptoms

This is very interesting piece Andrew, but I think it begs the question: if the entire goal is to avoid Lincecum getting more than $10 million and setting a new precedent, why not file for $9 million or $9.5 million and give yourselves a much better chance to win the case?

stormin9

This is about Bow-Tie Bozo the strategist. We’ll see how it pans out. According to Michael Urban, Sabean is not a player in this deal.

ace

Poppy you have been drinking all nite all day?

peter

I wish people would use the phrase “beg(s) the question” correctly. Begging the question means to assume what is to be proved.

StevieB

Great stuff Baggs, definitely didn’t consider this when trying to evaluate Lincecum’s salary negotiations. I do think they need to keep the A’s out of San Jose, but paying Lincecum his money shouldn’t necessarily prevent that right? I mean, surely the owners know that Lincecum is poised to set the new ceiling for arbitration, given his unprecedented success so early as a Super 2.

As far as I know, Coke, AT&T, Levi’s, BofA, Visa, and Chevron are not from Silicon Valley. Oracle is Redwood City based but is tech connected, but I do agree on Yahoo though (however long it survives in the face of Google). This doesn’t seem such a “significant percentage” though. COuld you also cite the season-ticket / suite sales too? I am curious about the fan population base.

Now as far as your conspiracy theories on somehow Lincecum arb’s case being connected with the A’s. The only rationale on that would somehow be implying that the Giants would be fighting this new so-called arb threshold for the rest of MLB to influence them in this “war”. However, if they wanted to appease the mass, wouldn’t it make more sense just to offer something more “significant” on a 2 year contract to avoid arb altogether (maybe 2 years @ 11 million)? I think that would brown nose the league more than going to court and set a precedent to lose the case to tip it to 13 million.

bad frog

phenominal knowledge!

darthvedder

This is the dumbest reason I’ve seen for this mess. They are going to lose if it goes to hearing. So if they take to hearing, there will be a ruling in favor of the player. Meaning not only did they not hold the line but established a record. So now the team is older, not better. The star will leave the minute he can. He will cost more and more money. We still can’t hit the ball. Tell me why Brian Sabean was rehired? Oh, maybe this explains it.

Kitty Kat

Tim Lincecum is the best Giants pitcher since Juan Marichal, meaning he’s the best Giants pitcher in the past 40 YEARS and yet management is playing games with him. Big mistake and they’re going to regret it later. Not only is the arbitration judge going to award Lincecum the higher number (which he clearly deserves) but the Giants – in order to try to win the ruling – will have to make a case that will underscore all of Lincecum’s alleged shortcomings, which as a pitcher are few and far between. Not a great strategy for engendering warm and fuzzy feelings between a great player and an organization….

Nate

This entire line of thinking is a massive pile of stupid. I think I’ve gotten dumber just reading it.

Its funny to see the line so clearly drawn between those that think thru the situation, and see all sides; and those who react with pure emotion and fear, never stopping to consider the actual motives for each participant in this or any other case.

The Giants are not going to lose Tim if they go to hearing and lose (or win). Tim wants to make money. As long as the Giants don’t go to the hearing and lie about him or insult him, he’ll be fine. Even if he is put off by the process, he’ll get over it. He has 4 more years with the club. Winning and maturity cure many ailments.

The case going to hearing does NOT mean that Tim will hate the Giants and insist on leaving. He’s not a child. Its a business, and he knows that. So do the Giants.

As for those of you who refer to Renteria or Rowand and their contracts when criticizing the Giants’ reluctance to pay Tim max dollars at this point in his career: ITS A DUMB ARGUMENT.

If the Giants made a mistake by signing Rowand to a long term, high dollar deal, (and we all agree that they did) why would they use that dubious deal as a BENCHMARK to negotiate THIS deal with Tim?

The idea is to LEARN from mistakes, not repeat them. I love Tim, I want him to pitch in San Francisco for his entire career. BUT, the team must be smart, and not overpay BEFORE THEY HAVE TO; especially in this market.

The landscape is MUCH different this year compared to past years regarding player salaries. For many years, salaries increased substantially every offseason. Now, teams are refusing to overpay. Look at Jonny Damon: the guy made $14 mil last year, had a SOLID season, helped his team win a World Championship, and he cant even get a 1 year offer for $5 mil!

I hear ya, fans are frustrated. So am I. I get very tired of losing. I think Bay Area fans are too forgiving. BUT, this team IMPROVED dramatically last season!

We’re getting better. We picked up some offense. Signed guys to short term, low dollar deals. If they aren’t effective, we still have the young guys from last year to step in. We retain salary cap freedom to sign better free-agent options than were available this offseason in years to come.

Is this a World Series team? Probably not, (although, not entirely impossible.. if a few guys exceed expectations with the bat this year, we certainly have the pitching to make a run) but its improving.

The Giants are fine. They’ll be in the hunt this year. This is the best team we’ve had to root for in 7 years. There were very few options available in FA that would have dramatically impacted this team.

I think the Giants have made some real bogus moves in the recent years. But, I don’t think they made any this offseason. I like the direction of the team. I like the prospects for our future. I’m excited to see how these guys compete this summer. And no, I’m NOT the “gimp” in Brian Sabean’s basement. I’m just a reasonable fan who feels optimistic about the upcoming season.

ECJ

Ryan

Still confused as to why any of you think this matters. A number will be picked. A big number. Tim will be perfectly happy. Breathe.

Man, I can’t wait until the season starts so that people can focus on the games instead of freaking out about rumor and innuendo…

WTF

It really was impressive how he didn’t have one legitimate point in that entire article. At least in a throw 919,365,918,651 darts and never hit the board kind of way.

andrew

The bottom line is that Giants fans are afraid of pissing off Lincecum and then having him pitch poorly to spite the Giants or have him not feel motivated to pitch well because he didn’t get “paid.”

Rest assured Lincecum will get PAID by the Giants when they are forced to, and Lincecum will have incentive to pitch his ass off because he’s not an idiot.

Relax everyone and ENJOY THE GAME MORE. 2010 is looking way better than 2009!

dregarx

Concerning Tim Lincecum’s situation, “Judge Wapner” has it all covered. Nothing for me to add.

because every team already knows Timmy needs to be paid. Of course they’re going to low ball him when they already know they’re going to lose. The A’s move to San Jose is much larger then this and maybe inevitable, especially if Wolff and Co. keep tanking seasons, eventually all the A’s will have to do is show the other owners they’re losingpotential revenue every year which means we are all losing money and bam! San Jose A’s in 2015, if the world doesn’t end in 2012. I can see Selig and Wolff, old college buddies rubbing their greedy little hands together from here.

Mavo

Great insight into the San Jose situation Baggs! You are correct in how important Silicon Valley is to the Giants. The A’s should work out a deal to stay in Oakland where they belong! But, I doubt that the A’s San Jose situation has that much bearing on the Lincecum negotiations though. The Giants are just trying to be smart after paying too much money for long-term contracts the past few years. There is no rush to sign Timmy to a long-term deal this year! Anybody remember Noah Lowry???? He got a multi-year deal and has not thrown a pitch in three years now! And how many years did we pay Robb Nenn for being hurt??? No, Timmy has to prove himself for at least another year before the Giants open the vault and give him a really long-term deal.

And I agree almost entirely with Judge Wapner and his excellent post earlier!

Okay…

You’re arguing that the Giants are holding the line on Tiny Tim because they don’t want to piss off other owners who might vote in favor of an A’s San Jose plan.

Think about that real hard for a moment.

Never mind that arb pricing is really out of the Giant’s hands. Never mind that the Giants not signing Linc to a long term deal is actually a benefit to the rest of the league.

Maybe it makes sense to try and keep his Salary lower. Maybe it makes sense to let him walk after an arb deal (I don;t think so, but hey, we’re arguing for the sake of arguing). All of those things may make sense. But arguing that paying Linc less has any bearing on the San Jose situation is ludicrous.

Every smart or conscious budget team signs its franchise players even in the first or second year in the majors to avoid this sort of caos….TULO, LESTER, BRAUN, etc

Its a risk…yeah sure…but what isnt in the baseball front office this days…The Giants have looked stupid and it will happen all over again with Pablo…. I cant believe that have to go through this instead of enjoying having one of the top marquee young player stars in the game…. its so sad…. cant even express my feelings…im just sad…

I know baseball is a business and I support that being a business man… the difference is that a cheap decision in this business hurts millions of people in the bay and all over the world…..

We are going to waste the best young pitching corps since the braves in the 90´s….

The last thing im going to loose its faith…but for us to win its going to take a GIANT MIRACLE if the front office doesnt take advantage of this generation….

Right

21 nails it.

And Baggs, Magowan paying stars also = Barry Zito as albatross around the Giants’ neck for seven years.

I love Timmy, but the idea that the Giants should throw huge money at him for a long-term contract (which is their only choice here, apparently) is flat out wrong.

Scarpia

Lincecum will be wearing a Big Market Team Uniform before 2013. He may take things in stride but Dad wants as much glory and money as possible!!!

Can’t believe the Giants won’t trade him prior to the end of the 6 year contract control period. – they are going to lose him anyway –

Smart move trade him at the end of 2012 unless they are truly in the hunt for the playoff, just think of the established bat and prospects that can be had. Good News) Hopefully Sabe will be gone as not to give away the store.

Bull

“He knew people like White Sox hawk Jerry Reinsdorf would be in his suite within 10 minutes, absolutely livid. He didn’t care. He knew the legitimacy Bonds’ star power would bring to the franchise and he went out and got it.”

20/20 hindsight, ‘legitimacy’ being a relative term.

Humm this

‘bow tie bozo’… classic.. put a regular tie on, dork!

dodgerh8r

I don’t know why everyone is getting their panties in a bunch … Timmy’s under contract for 4 years as an arb-eligible player. He may or may not be displeased with the way things are going now, and both sides may prefer to go year-to-year for now, but trust me, a nice tidy longterm deal for big money down the road goes a long way to soothing egos.

J the Fan

Great Post keep up the good work baggs

NoCalFred

On another note, Baggs: Any word on whether Jesus Guzman has cleared waivers?

snarkk

If any of this noise has a whiff of truth, it goes to prove even more that this Giants ownership will never bring us a WS championship, unless by some colossal accident and lining up of parallel universes. This ownership group is a mix of rich people from diverse backgrounds with the commonality of not being baseball people. They let people like McGowan and now Neukom, who may love baseball but know zilch about it, lead the charge. They can’t be really interested in winning a championship, because continued actions that put the bottom line ahead of fielding a great team speak louder than empty words. The first and last great player move McGowan made was Bonds. Fine, but that’s done. They have the #7 or #8 revenue in MLB, some of the highest seat prices, concession and parking fees, yet Baer and company continually spout the tired act that they’re in the poorhouse. Meanwhile the equity in the stadium and franchise rises every year. It’s really getting old. Screw Ellison taking over the Dubs. I wish he would buy the Giants…

snarkk

If any of this noise has a whiff of truth, it goes to prove even more that this Giants ownership will never bring us a WS championship, unless by some colossal accident and lining up of parallel universes. This ownership group is a mix of rich people from diverse backgrounds with the commonality of not being baseball people. They let people like McGowan and now Neukom, who may love baseball but know zilch about it, lead the charge. They can’t be really interested in winning a championship, because continued actions that put the bottom line ahead of fielding a great team speak louder than empty words. The first and last great player move McGowan made was Bonds. Fine, but that’s done. They have the #7 or #8 revenue in MLB, some of the highest seat prices, concession and parking fees, yet Baer and company continually spout the tired act that they’re in the poorhouse. Meanwhile the equity in the stadium and franchise rises every year. It’s really getting old. Screw Ellison taking over the Dubs. I wish he would buy the Giants…

toby for heisman

Lincecum will leave at his 1st chance, just in spite of this horrible front office. He doesn’t deserve this crap.

Scarpia

Snark,

Well Put and right on the M_O_N_E_Y.

It all makes me miss the days of The Stick Jack Clark and Johnny LeMaster.

BTW – Wonder how many infants have come down with ear and throat infects since SBC opened>? Get tired of watching narcissistic Me-Gens parading their kids around like trophies at Bay Area sporting events. It’s okay if the poor baby freezes his or her ass off as long as they get picked up by the Comcast camera. Totally irresponsible by parents and MLB – should be minimum age limits. Poor little kids.

Nate

Face reality. No matter how grateful the owners would theoretically be if the Giants somehow managed to pay Lincecum $8M instead of $13M, (not happening, btw,) that would in no way override their desire to not have to pay the A’s $20M/year in revenue sharing.

Meanwhile, the Bay Area is a two-team market, there’s two large cities in the Bay Area, and Oakland isn’t either one of them. If San Jose is that important to the Giants, they should move there. If not, then they’re trying to profit at the expense of MLB as a whole, and the owners aren’t going to let them do that.

dregarx

Judge Wapner

The sum of this offseason’s moves were mediocre at best.

The Giants picked up some offense, but you might want to consider that they gave up a lot of it on defense.

Ishikawa>Huff (only at defense, DProf, don’t worry)
Sanchez: shoulder and knee injuries don’t bode well for his defense
Molina has always been slow behind the plate, agile Posey would have been better at blocking pitches.

And if you say that Molina was a good decision because of Super 2 issues with Posey, well, Sabean created that issue in the first place. The good GMs in the game don’t start the service clock on their players to sit on the bench as a 3rd-string catcher. If they were going to put a catcher on the bench after Bengie got injured and not play him, Holm was a much better option.

Paul S

I would like to point out the Howard’s $10 mil. award was for a full time position player. The $8 mil. the Giants offered is almost twice the amount of the previous high by a SP, Dontrel Willis.
IMHO the arbitrator has to choose between doubling or tripling the previous high for a starting pitcher.

hitman

Linscum does not care about $$$. Just keep a supply of hippie lettuce in the club house and he will stay!!! “What is that aroma?” Again, the gnats will always be the dodgers beeches!! Heh, heh,heh!

Some Guy

So it’s Sabean’s fault for not locking up Lincecum last year after one full year in the majors (though it was a great one)? Now it’s Sabean’s fault for not locking up Lincecum to a long, expenisve, guaranteed contract when they have him arb eligible for 4 years? I seem to remember reading that Lincecum’s agents want to go year to year. They get a higher yearly salary than if they sign for a longterm deal, but don’t get the guaranteed cash. Bigger risk, bigger reward. From the Giants standpoint, if they brokered a deal now, they’d be buying high on a young/skinny kid who will never be more valuable. Seems to me, both sides are (& should be) happy with going to arbitration.

I know it’s what 90% of people here do, but you don’t have to have a fit everytime Sabean/Nuekom make a decision. #44 is spot on withe the $8mil number. Between the facts that he’s a young skinny pitcher, rather than a position player, and the market for star players is regressing, I’d say $8mil is an OK number. He’s probably worth closer to $9 or $10mil, but that’s closer than the $13 Lincecum’s asking for.

realitypolice

Remember Occam’s Razor, Mr. Baggarly. The simplest explanation for an offer from the Giants which isn’t reflective of market realities – the explanation that doesn’t require linking unrelated stories in a convoluted way – is that their front office is totally incapable of valuing the real worth of baseball players. History certainly demonstrates this is the case.

Funny how no Giants media ever brings up the fact that the A’s gave the Giants the territorial rights to help them stay in the Bay Area. This was at a time when the Giants sucked, and the crowds were pathetic. Now that the A’s are in that same situation, the Giants rather than helping as they were once helped, use the territorial rights to sabotage the A’s at every turn. Nice Kharma Giants!

Franko747

Good for the Giants!

The A’s belong in Sacramento!

Nate

Since some Giants’ fans insist in trying to make this a one-team market, I propose the following.

Whichever team has won the World Series more stays! 😀

dregarx

Absolutely right, Some Guy. There are plenty of Giants moves to have a fit about. This is not one of them.

Sharkalchemy

Im not convinced at all the South Bay even wants a football stadium built, let alone a new baseball park for the A’s. Really? In this economic climate? errrmmmmm…that June ballot for the football stadium is this June I believe…that’s a long way’s off and any number of events could derail it.

Im not even sure if the football stadium gets approved or not, whether that helps or hurts the A’s cause. I am assuming they would ask for some public money for a park…lol. ya, right. If they need tax money and the 49ers deal is a go for Santa Clara, I think the electorate and the local leaders would be very cautious about bringing a major league baseball team in roughly the same time period.

Is there enough money for any of this? (short answer: no.)

If the new stadium gets shot down this summer…good luck to the A’s dealing with an electorate in no mood to deal with big league sports franchises.

the Noosh

Keep it coming Baggs.

IMHO – Smart decision to go all the way to the arb hearing on Lincecum. no real benefit to locking up his arb years for Millions when you already control. Too big of a risk of injury, plus Tim’s feelings will be fine. Puff puff – no worries.

But I will admit, it looks like the giants FO could even screw this one up. Larry Baer gets on KNBR and says “Uh. umm. well, you see. umm. we’re not sure we want to do a long term deal. It’s all about how much. And no one REALLY wants to go to arbitration, but it’s not so bad!”

What he should have said: “Of course we’d like to sign Timmy to a 10 year deal. He’s the Franchise! But it depends on the dollar amount obviously. And we realize arbitration can be ugly sometimes, but it won’t be with Timmy because there’s nothing bad we can say about they guy. He’s a stud. He’s the best. We just disagree on how much “the Best” is worth.

BTW:
Peter’s Comment #13 beg’s the question as to why he commented on a blog about idioms. Giants? Oh. A blog about Giants. + I’m not even sure he’s right. . . if it’s used that way all the time, doesn’t that by definition make it the right use of it? It’s a phrase.

Ahem16 – “Silicon Valley” includes Redwood City in most people’s lingo. Also, are Coke and At&T box-holders, or are they naming-rights holders? I’m not sure, but that’s what he’s talking about. Not naming rights.

Why must this be Sabean’s fault? I’m no Sabean fan, but maybe TL doesn’t want to sign a long term contract.

Why should he? Remember yourself at that age? You were young, indestructable, and the world was yours for the taking. You were confident — you *knew* that your skills would only get better. Why limit yourself with one team? (Especially one that maybe in your opinion doesn’t have a plan for anything?)

Heck, his mom probably saw him on TV running stadium steps with that huge mean looking tattooed guy (Penny) and told him to get back to Seattle pronto.

The Mighty Zen

Send the A’s back to KC and combine them with the Royals to make one semi-competitive team!

Fergie348

Everyone knows that Timmy’s worth more than 8 MM at his current rate of production but come on, people – he’s a super 2, so first year of arb eligibility.

If you believe in WAR and average $/win, then Tim is ‘worth’ about $24 million this year given what other teams are paying on the open market for talent. That said, he’s under team control for another 4 years and 1st year eligible players historically get about 40% of their free market value in arbitration. This would mean about $9.6MM or so, a bit closer to the Giants submitted number than Tim’s, so I think if it does go to arbitration the G’s have an above average chance of winning. It’s still a pretty good raise for Tim.

Both Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander signed their LTC’s in their 2nd year of arbitration eligibility, so maybe next year..

cameron datzker

The Giants Management are acting like tyrants.
a

Sign Tim Lincecum to a 5 year contract.. this pitcher is very amazing player as he can a ball club go to the next level.. I like our
future with Timmy, he reminds me of a poor’s man “Tom Terrific”
Seaver. I think that he is an amazing player.. I think that The Giants
rotation of Lincecum- Matt Cain-Jonathan Sanchez- Morgan Bumgarner are simply the best.. As for Barry Zito, what a waste of
money.. The Giants should sign Veteran Pedro Martinez as he would
be a phenominal inspiration to the pitching staff..

Marine Layer

I firmly believe that there is no way MLB allows the A’s to move to the South Bay. This would set a precedent that MLB does not want. The Giants owners built AT&T Park knowing that they’d have the corporate and fan support from the South Bay. The A’s owners on the other hand bought the team knowing that they did NOT have the rights to the South Bay. So they can’t cry about not being able to move there now. Lew Wolff constantly cries and whines about not being able to move the team where he wants but never does a thing to cultivate fan interest and never does anything like Magowan and co. did in constructing the finest ballpark in MLB without any taxpayer subsidies.

Angry Dan

No pitcher should be signed to a 5-yr deal. Especially when the team still controls the pitcher for the next 4 years. The only way a multi-year contract works here (and by multi-year, I mean 2-3 years) is if Lincecum is willing to take a discount in exchange for injury/performance risk in the next few years and the Giants are willing to assume the injury/performance risk over the next few years in exchange for a discount in price and cost certainty. From all we’ve heard, it sounds like Lincecum’s side doesn’t want to give any discounts, so the Giants are doing the right thing by letting this go year to year. If you’re going to have to pay him many millions of dollars anyways, you might as well go year-to-year so you’re not stuck with a huge contract if he gets hurt or suddenly sucks.

One thing I actually agree with the Giants and Sabean on. One and only thing.

It’s not like the Giants are going to make it to the postseason this year with their bad defense and contenders to defend their lowest OBP in the majors title. Maybe the Giants’ evil plan is to field a horrible defense in 2010 so Lincecum and Cain’s numbers will look relatively bad and they’ll be cheaper in the next offseason.

Sharkalchemy

AD,

The evil part of is that it isn’t planned evil, it just ends up that way.

bradley emden

Are the giants playing games with tim, or does his agent not want to sign and take him to arbitration. Then when its time for free agency he can say the gmen were horrible, and try to get the big contract with redsox or yanks.

jah

interesting insight.

uncle joe mccarthy

oh ya andrew, lets keep up the meme that sabean uses his brains when dishing out caishe

and to those that think timmy isnt worth the 13 mil he is asking for…just look down the bench to that dude making billions…who isnt even good enough to be a 5th starter on most teams

lincecum won back to back cy young awards…he is a freak

you keep freaks happy…not play hardball during negotiations

mark my words…in 4 years, the kid will either be a yankee or a dodger

GiantPip

Bags,

Do you think Sea Wall Lot 337 could be a factor as well?

Little seems to be said about this HUGE proposal, that could have a HUGE bearing on the fiscal future of our beloved Giantes. Is it still in the works?

We’ve talked a bit about the Giants’ moves in posts previous, and I know you feel that the overall wins produced by the addition of these vets (Huff, Sanchez, Molina, Uribe and DaRosa) are not much higher than what our youngsters would have done. Yet, we spent 23 mil or so on these guys.

I’m not such a believer in the “wins above average” stats that you’ve quoted in support of your position (sorry if I’ve labeled it wrong), so I won’t comment directly. I’ll just say that the Giants have added some proven vets to help in areas where unproven youth failed the team consistently last season (2B, LF, 1B).

We’ll see if they improve the situation. Good news is: if they don’t, they’re gone after the season (or 2011).

You’ve made a common objection to the new signings by pointing to defense. While I agree that defense might be less of a strength next year, and that team speed is down from last year, I think you overstate your position a bit..

I agree that Ishi is known for his solid glove (and Huff is not). However, 1B is the LEAST demanding defensive position on the field! I’m not saying defense isn’t important at EVERY position; it is. But, BECAUSE 1B is less demanding than other positions, it is IMPERATIVE that 1B is one of the best bats in the lineup.

Its no coincidence than many of the best (power) hitters in MLB play 1B, and they’re not all known for their gloves (Fielder, R. Howard, Votto, D. Lee, D. Ortiz, Youkilis, Berkman, etc ). If there’s one place a team can hide a defensive liability, its 1B.

So, while I’ll grant you that Ishi is superior defensively to Huff; it hurts the Giants far more to have his great glove and wimpy stick waving at horrible pitches out of the strikezone. Unless you’re the Yankees, a team is in big trouble if their 1B is batting 7th or 8th in their lineup.

Next, you mention Sanchez, and reason that his shoulder and knee injuries “dont bode well for his defense”. Well, I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The fact here is that the Giants didn’t have ANYONE at 2B last season, so even IF Sanchez is limited by his injuries, he’ll be far better than ANYONE who played the position last year. Sanchez is a guy that has played well in virtually every season he’s been in the bigs. There’s NO reason to doubt him… yet. Lets see how he plays. Plenty of players bounce back from injuries. There’s plenty of chance that he will too.

Finally, you compare Molina to Posey, and conclude that Posey is the better defender. That, my friend, is ridiculous.

The ONLY thing keeping Posey from being an everyday starter in the bigs IS his defense. His bat is considered MLB ready now. Just because he’s younger and more agile doesn’t mean he’s a better defender. His technique needs work.. Bengie’s does not.

Yes, Bengie is slow. And his arm is about is strong as Rowand’s. (Noodle arm) But, Bengie knows how to call a game. He knows how to block the plate. He keeps the ball in front of him, and if he could manage to avoid swinging at pitches that bounce before crossing the plate; he’s got a little pop left in his bat as well.

Yes, the Giants will be less effective on D next season. But, they’ll hit the ball MUCH better. If just 3 of the 5 players signed / resigned this season JUST DO WHAT THEY DID LAST SEASON; the Giants will win 5-10 more games in 2010. And that’s with the concessions on defense.

ECJ

Buck Henry

Sorry Andy, but it appears this argument was pitched to you by someone who has an interest in defending the Giants’ mishandling of this situation.

The only way your argument holds water, and the only way MLB owners use the Giants in this matter is if the Giants put forward a CREDIBLE counter offer. And $8 million makes it way too easy for the arbitrator to summarily reject the Giants’ position and grant Lincecum’s argument, which will only undermine MLB owners. Your theory would make more sense if the Giants offered $9.5-10.0 million; it would make sense at that number, and would help other owners. But a ridiculous offer of $8 million after two Cy Youngs reeks of shortsighted stupidity. If I were another owner, I’d be yelling at Bowtie right now for escalating the pay grade.

dregarx

ECJ

You are speaking as if Huff is one of the big bats mentioned as examples. Ortiz, Youkilis, Berkman, Fielder?

This is Huff last year: .241/.310/.384

Just do what he did last year, and the Giants will win more games. Hmm… any problems with that proposition? Oh, that’s right, this is actually worse than Ishikawa and Garko hit last season. That’s the guy you’re counting on to succeed.

And remember, not only is he “not known for his defense”, he is so atrocious in the field that his primary position the last few seasons has been DH. That’s bad, bad stuff.

About Sanchez, you said he’ll be far better than anybody who played the position last year. I believe you’ve forgotten about our good friend Juan Uribe. Here’s how they did last year.

Sanchez: .293/.326/.416
Uribe: .289/.329/.495

Uribe was much better. For a 2B, Sanchez is actually quite the mediocre hitter. His calling card is his defense: it gives him all his value. But injuries to BOTH shoulders and his knee are very worrisome.

As for the defense of Molina… I have to conclude your sources of information are different from mine. But hear me out on this one. You concede that his arm is weak. We’ll shelve the “game calling” effect because there’s not much evidence to say that it is pronounced, and though it undoubtedly has some impact, in all likelihood it never exceeds more than 1 win.

But you cite as his strength the ability to block pitches. Now, I don’t know where you’re getting your information, but the evidence showed pretty clearly that Bengie was really bad at blocking pitches and allowed an inordinate number of passed balls.

In fact he was 57th out of 71 qualifying catchers in that category: the only starters worse than Bengie were Miguel Montero, Jorge Posada, Miguel Olivo, AJ Pierzynski, and Pudge Rodriguez, and all of these catchers (except perhaps Olivo) are much stronger hitters than Bengie. The fact of the matter is, Bengie is a horrible defensive catcher.

To make matters worse, he’s right at the age where many catchers drop off a cliff in terms of performance, and he is by no means the norm in terms of catcher athleticism and body build, and that’ll only hurt him more. Furthermore, he’s started more games the last few seasons than ever in his career. If there was ever a player custom-made to bomb in 2010, Molina is that man.

Oh, and with Posey, for every scouting report or opinion you can find saying he’s not ready defensively, I can find one saying he is ready defensively. It’s a contested subject, and to say that one side is “ridiculous” is pretty silly, actually.

Calling an 8 million dollar offer ‘ridiculous’ is in itself ridiculous

rpuck

ECJ #65,

Although an apt attorney you will make, a finer judge you will someday become. Your value of reason above emotion and absence of the A-hole instinct should truly elevate you to the bench. Good luck!

Wins Above Replacement has got to be the least reliable sabremetric in the book. Is it even in the book? I just find it ludicrous when when people draw up a column, total it up and say subtract 1.6 wins. UZR can’t be that far behind this one. Personally, I love ERA, WHIP and a full slash line; you get what you pay for.

I don’t know how many wins the new Giants are good for, but I do have a strong feeling that when they get down 3-0 in the 4th inning they will not be prematurely defeated, put together solid at bats and get back in the game. My feeling is that “Come from behind wins” will be a more meaningful stat for the 2010 Giants.

-RP

Sharkalchemy

Not with this head coach.

joey g

How about this. The Giants not only wanted to please MLB owners by looking like they are getting tough with Lincecum, but they want Lincecum to be happy too, so they filed a number slightly lower than they might have knowing Timmy will win in arbitration, he will be happy, and they still can tell MLB owners they tried. Hmmm.

Sacto Mike

I’m just wondering why some of the comments are ripping Baggs for this theory. Its a theory, judge its merits how you will, but stop getting annoyed he took the time to write it. If its misguided, whatever, but its interesting to consider.

This comment caught my eye: “According to Michael Urban, Sabean is not a player in this deal.”

Can we stop taking Urban seriously now? He apologizes for the Giants on every front except ownership. Players, management, now general management, whatever. I’m not sure why, all I know is its pretty weak. You don’t need to be a fan that absolutely loathes the current philosophy (like myself) to be able to spread the blame around when players aren’t playing well and management isn’t managing well.

rpuck

Tired of the way the Giants are managed ??

Become a Twins fan. That is how the show is run. They will be my AL team (always have been since my distant cousin Kirby Puckett manned CF).

Giants will always be my team by proximity since the days I was lured away from the Angels and Dodgers forever by Will Clark.

Go Giants! Go Twins ! Get here Spring Training !

Angry Dan

#65 Judge Wapner:

There was no need to sign Freddy Sanchez to a 2-yr $12 million contract right away. Who were the Giants bidding against? Two equivalent, I would argue better (even if Sanchez was healthy), 2B were available on the free agent market. Orlando Hudson just signed yesterday for 1 yr, $5 million with the Twins. Felipe Lopez is still unsigned!!! The same Felipe Lopez who has had OBPs of .352, .358, .308, .343, and .383 ever since he became a full time player back in 2005.

I don’t want to care how the Giants spend their money. If they had a $200 million payroll, this wouldn’t be a problem. Unfortunately, all of these wasted millions add up for a team on a $100 million budget. Especially when 30% of the payroll is tied up with Rowand and Zito for another 3 years.

cameron datzker

In other Giants News.. I understand the Giants have signed former
farmhand hopeful Jesus Guzman, to a contract.. Who’s still out there in Free Agent Land.. 1. Jermanine Dye, good quick bat with compact home-run speed, can’t run like he used to, but is a solid defender. 2. Russell Branyan, hit over 31 homers and drove in over 70 RBIS, but struck out about 149 times.. 3. Mark Jacobs is a good
lefthanded power bat and he did hit over 19 homers as a KC Royal.
4. Geoff Jenkins, the forgotten man in Philadelphia, He would be a good bench player spelling your 1st baseman and outfielder. This team should of signed this player.. The San Diego Padres should of
signed Outfielder Rick Ankiel, but I think that Endy Chavez could be a
good signing for the Friars.. Chavez can play a masterfull Center-Fielder.

Tim

Great read. Thank you for taking the time to write this up!

dregarx

In no world is Jermaine Dye a solid defender. He sucks at fielding.

Saywhat

Re dre vs Judge, i agree with dre. Ishi’s D/bat = more net runs than huff’s bat/D. A gimpy sanchez will need range at 1b, and renteria and pablo will need a picker. huff will be a disaster. no way his old weak bat makes up for his D.

A’s will never be an economic success in the BA. Giants own N.CA. I’ve tried caring about the A’s. Can’t be done.

Yes, giants have botched the whole timmy thing. that’s what they do best. yes, timmy will be fine, attitude wise. bottom line, timmy is THE ONLY player in baseball fans specifically buy a ticket or turn on the tube to see. period. he is “appointment television”. I understand the higher this yr’s salary is, the higher future yrs will be. whatever. just don’t eff up the only player that really makes the giants matter.

bradley emden

Are we conflating San Jose with Lincecum’s contract. Seems like it comes right out of the Bush Cheney playbook. Perhaps the giants will choose the nuclear option!

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