Talking Points: Miami Dolphins picking up steam as favorite to land Peyton Manning

Happy Friday! Today is March 2, just six days before Mannegeddon — the March 8 deadline in which the Colts have to either pay Peyton Manning a $28 million bonus, or cut him loose. And that’s where we kickoff today’s Talking Points:

1. Peyton Manning to Dolphins picking up steam.

Dolphins owner Stephen Ross made it clear to his people that Manning sits atop his wish list, and despite early buzz that Manning could land in New York or Washington, the Manning-to-Miami movement is the one gaining momentum in the NFL world.

Herm Edwards and Michael Irvinboth said recently that the Dolphins are a logical fit, because of the talent on the roster, the weather and the fan base’s desire for a big-name quarterback (not to mention that Manning owns a condo in South Beach and is rumored to be working out at a private school in Miami).

Joining the chorus this morning was Eric Mangini, who said this morning on Mike & Mike that he also considers Miami the best landing spot for Manning. Mangini, of course, has done a little consulting work for the Dolphins over the past couple of years and knows how the owner thinks.

Off-shore, the Dolphins have become the favorite to land Manning, as well. The current odds, from Sportsbook.com:

The one person still banging the drum against the Manning-to-Miami is former Ravens coach Brian Billick, who wrote today that Matt Flynnis a better pick for the Dolphins. Billick’s rationale is that Manning would overtake new coach Joe Philbin on the power structure, whereas Philbin would still be the boss with Flynn at quarterback.

Billick has a point, but after meeting Philbin on several occasions, he doesn’t seem like someone who would have trouble getting along with Manning if that’s what his boss wants him to do. Philbin is quiet, thoughtful and deeply religious, and comes off a lot like Tony Dungy, Manning’s former coach in Indianapolis. And most importantly, he wants to win football games. Few quarterbacks are better at that than Manning.

Another dissenter is Joe Theismann, who believes the Cardinals are the best landing spot for Manning because they have great weather, play in a dome and have Larry Fitzgerald (Theismann does consider Miami the second-best spot, however). It’s hard to argue with Theismann, but the Dolphins seem like the better bet at this point. For the Cardinals to land Manning, they would first have to cut Kevin Kolb before he is owed a $7 million bonus on March 17 — effectively paying him $12 million for one year of service, plus a second-round pick and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie — and then beat Miami in a bidding war. That’s quite an expensive move for Cardinals owner Bill Bidwill, who does not have a history of making expensive moves.

2. Don’t count on Ryan Tannehill with the 8th pick.

A lot of mock drafts are starting to link the Dolphins with Tannehill, the former Texas A&M quarterback, with the eighth overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. Obviously the connection makes sense — Tannehill’s head coach was Mike Sherman, now the Dolphins’ new offensive coordinator.

But in assessing the Dolphins’ goals this offseason, the only way they end up with Tannehill at the eight spot is if they take a big swing-and-a-miss in landing a franchise quarterback.

The Dolphins want to find their franchise quarterback in free agency, so they can use their draft picks on instant impact players (criticize Jeff Ireland all you want, but his first-round picks have all made immediate impacts when healthy — Jake Long, Vontae Davis, Jared Odrick and Mike Pouncey). Manning is the first choice, and Flynn is the fall-back option.

Robert Griffin III is the third choice is the Dolphins somehow miss on Manning and Flynn. But RG3 is not the preferred route because it would cost the Dolphins most, if not all, of their top draft picks for the next two years.

If the Dolphins strike out on all three, then Tannehill becomes an option at the eighth pick (or even a trade-up). Otherwise, the Dolphins need that eighth pick to draft an immediate starter — a pass-rusher, cornerback or right tackle. Signing Manning/Flynn and drafting Tannehill with the eighth pick would not be a wise use of the Dolphins’ resources, as they would be neglecting other important areas of the team.

Tannehill, too, only has 19 career college starts and is considered as someone who will be “over-drafted,” similar to when Jake Locker and Christian Ponder surprisingly went eighth and 12th last year. The Dolphins could somehow try to trade down in the first round and draft Tannehill in the late teens or early 20s, but a team like Kansas City or Seattle would likely scoop him up before that.

The Dolphins still would like to draft a young quarterback to develop for the future. But it is more likely they take someone like Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Brandon Weeden or Nick Foles in the second or third round than Tannehill or anyone else with the eighth pick.

3. Cornerback is a bigger need than free safety.

Several media outlets and websites list free safety as one of the Dolphins’ biggest needs this offseason, along with pass rusher and right tackle.

The Dolphins could probably use an upgrade at free safety — though the three-man rotation of Chris Clemons, Reshad Jones and Tyrone Culver is cost-effective, and they played better in the second half of 2011 — the Dolphins have a much bigger need at cornerback.

First of all, they need a body. Nickel corner Will Allen is a free agent, so the Dolphins only have four under contract (Davis, Sean Smith, Nolan Carroll and Jimmy Wilson). Allen, to his credit, played very well in the second half of 2011. He was rarely out of position and was invaluable to his younger teammates as an on-field coach. But, he’s 34 in August and had two relatively recent knee surgeries. No one could blame Ireland for wanting a younger option at his all-too-important Nickel corner spot.

And one of Ireland’s main principles, passed down by Bill Parcells, was that the three most important positions on the field are: Quarterback, pass-rusher and cornerback.

“You never have enough of them,” Ireland said last week at the NFL Scouting Combine.

He exhibited that principle in 2009 when he took cornerbacks in the first and second rounds — Davis and Smith. Don’t be surprised to see Ireland take another cornerback high in this year’s draft, even with Davis and Smith fairly entrenched as the starting corners this season. An elite corner like Dre Kirkpatrick is very much in play with the eighth pick. If Janoris Jenkins or Stephon Gilmore last until the second round, I would be shocked if Ireland didn’t pull the trigger.

The rookie corner can play the Nickel spot in 2012 (Wilson and Carroll are nice players, but are there more for depth and special teams). After that, who knows? Smith is a free agent after 2012, and his future with the team is up in the air. He could re-sign to be the outside corner, he could re-sign to play free safety (a move that has been talked about for years) or the team could not invite him back. As for free safety, the Dolphins don’t seem to be ready to give up on the development of Jones and Clemons, and Smith is always a fall-back option.

Add in the fact that the NFL is increasingly a passing league, and it makes sense for the Dolphins to make cornerback a priority this offseason.