This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

JANUARY 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales increased by 0.7% in January 2003 compared with December 2002. Passenger vehicle sales increased by 0.8% over the same period and other vehicle sales increased by 0.7%.

The Northern Territory recorded the largest increase in trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales of any state or territory (2.2%) in January 2003 compared with December 2002. Queensland was the only state or territory to record a decrease (0.5%) over the same period.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates increased by 24.0% in January 2003 compared with December 2002. Other vehicle sales increased by 35.2% and passenger vehicle sales increased by 18.4% from December 2002 to January 2003. Unusually low December 2002 sales and unusually high January 2003 sales caused the large movements in this series.

NOTES

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1

The February 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the January 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

2

The February 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the January 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)

Other vehicles (a) (No.)

Total vehicles (No.)

Change Passenger vehicles (%)

Change Other vehicles (%)

Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2001

November

47,510

23,252

70,762

4.2

11.8

6.6

December

48,193

20,838

69,031

1.4

-10.4

-2.4

2002

January

39,779

18,778

58,557

-17.5

-9.9

-15.2

February

42,776

22,019

64,795

7.5

17.3

10.7

March

44,828

22,996

67,824

4.8

4.4

4.7

April

42,052

21,834

63,886

-6.2

-5.1

-5.8

May

46,448

26,675

73,123

10.5

22.2

14.5

June

49,101

29,680

78,781

5.7

11.3

7.7

July

45,923

23,859

69,782

-6.5

-19.6

-11.4

August

45,122

24,525

69,647

-1.7

2.8

-0.2

September

43,396

22,638

66,034

-3.8

-7.7

-5.2

October

48,269

24,063

72,332

11.2

6.3

9.5

November

47,229

24,346

71,575

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

December

45,317

22,656

67,973

-4.0

-6.9

-5.0

2003

January

40,015

21,155

61,170

-11.7

-6.6

-10.0

Seasonally Adjusted

2001

November

43,864

21,910

65,774

1.0

3.1

1.7

December

46,133

20,054

66,187

5.2

-8.5

0.6

2002

January

49,079

24,810

73,889

6.4

23.7

11.6

February

45,699

23,668

69,367

-6.9

-4.6

-6.1

March

43,408

21,857

65,265

-5.0

-7.7

-5.9

April

45,648

23,651

69,299

5.2

8.2

6.2

May

45,401

24,316

69,717

-0.5

2.8

0.6

June

44,705

23,749

68,454

-1.5

-2.3

-1.8

July

44,390

24,048

68,438

-0.7

1.3

0.0

August

45,301

25,217

70,518

2.1

4.9

3.0

September

45,947

25,194

71,141

1.4

-0.1

0.9

October

45,791

24,955

70,746

-0.3

-0.9

-0.6

November

45,464

23,406

68,870

-0.7

-6.2

-2.7

December

41,865

20,783

62,648

-7.9

-11.2

-9.0

2003

January

49,584

28,103

77,687

18.4

35.2

24.0

Trend

2001

November

44,910

21,875

66,785

1.3

1.6

1.4

December

45,425

22,214

67,639

1.1

1.5

1.3

2002

January

45,785

22,601

68,386

0.8

1.7

1.1

February

45,873

22,979

68,852

0.2

1.7

0.7

March

45,672

23,291

68,963

-0.4

1.4

0.2

April

45,308

23,555

68,863

-0.8

1.1

-0.1

May

44,990

23,834

68,824

-0.7

1.2

-0.1

June

44,971

24,216

69,187

0.0

1.6

0.5

July

45,060

24,484

69,544

0.2

1.1

0.5

August

45,140

24,574

69,714

0.2

0.4

0.2

September

45,160

24,440

69,600

0.0

-0.5

-0.2

October

45,257

24,289

69,546

0.2

-0.6

-0.1

November

45,446

24,240

69,686

0.4

-0.2

0.2

December

45,731

24,327

70,058

0.6

0.4

0.5

2003

January

46,081

24,501

70,582

0.8

0.7

0.7

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.