If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefoxas your Browser.0930-1500 KENYA TIMENormal Board - The Whole shebangPrompt Board Next day settlementExpert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

Incredibly stunning view of mount Ololokwe from Samburu nationalreserve. While beauty is in the eye of the beholder, scenes like thisare bound to take your breath away with their awe-inspiring beauty.@Lepalai #MagicalKenya #BeautifulNorth #Samburu

US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping agreed Saturday tosuspend any new tariffs in the escalating trade war between theworld's two largest economies, even if huge existing duties willremain in place.White House said an increase of tariffs from 10 to 25 percent due tokick in on January 1 would now be put on hold, providing room forintense negotiations.The agreement, hashed out over steak in the Argentine capital BuenosAires, lowers the temperature in a conflict that has spooked worldmarkets.The two leaders, who were in Buenos Aires for a summit of the G20countries, called it "a highly successful meeting," the White Housesaid."The principal agreement has effectively prevented further expansionof economic friction between the two countries and has opened up newspace for win-win cooperation," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.Under the agreement, Trump is shelving a plan to raise existingtariffs of 10 percent to 25 percent from the start of next year.However, the truce is only partial.Some $50 billion worth of Chinese imports already face 25 percenttariffs while the 10 percent tariffs, which target a massive $200billion in goods, will also remain in effect.Meanwhile, China has targeted $110 billion worth of US imports for tariffs.If there is any further retaliation, Trump has warned, he will slappunitive duties on the remaining $267 billion in Chinese goods comingto the United States.And Saturday's truce also contained an ultimatum.The White House made clear that the 10 percent tariffs would stillleap up to 25 percent if China doesn't meet US demands in 90 days.These include China stopping a host of trade barriers, intellectualproperty theft and other actions that Washington say make fair tradeimpossible.Tough negotiations lie ahead, but Trump was upbeat."This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimitedpossibilities for both the United States and China. It is my greathonor to be working with President Xi," he said in a statement.Trump and Xi expressed optimism the moment they and top aides sat downin Buenos Aires at a long hotel table adorned with flowers."Only with cooperation between us can we serve the interest of bothpeace and prosperity," Xi said.The meeting -- featuring a menu of sirloin steak, caramel rolledpancakes and Argentine wine -- went on longer than scheduled.And while it may have been tacked on to the end of two days of G20diplomacy, it was in many ways the main event of the weekend.German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was also attending the G20, spokefor many when she urged progress."We all realize that we are indirectly influenced by the fact thatSino-American economic relations are not running as smoothly as aworld order needs," she said.On the US side at the dinner, Trump was accompanied by advisers suchas Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who are widelyseen as wanting a deal.But hawkish advisers like Peter Navarro and US Trade RepresentativeRobert Lighthizer were also present. Navarro's inclusion in particularwas a surprise as he has harshly criticized China, accusing itsleadership of duplicity.Trump, as often in his diplomatic dealings, appears to consider hispersonal chemistry with Xi the most important factor in the success ofthe negotiations.He has prided himself on building a good relationship with the Chineseleader, even though he acknowledges it may have trouble surviving thegrowing crisis."He may not be a friend of mine anymore but I think he probablyrespects me," Trump said in September.At the dinner, however, he was more upbeat, saying that his ties to Xiwere "a very primary reason" for considering a deal possible.

The G20 in Buenos Aires was extraordinary, The Optics were off thecharts, it was Netflix level cinema. Putin fresh off his Kerch Straitinterdiction high-fived the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. The WallStreet Journal [was reporting at about the same time] on a Highlyclassified CIA report which said that the Saudi crown prince sent 11messages to a top aide who oversaw the hit squad in the hours aroundKhashoggi’s murder. Prince Mohammed “personally targeted” Khashoggiand “probably ordered his death.” It added: “To be clear, we lackdirect reporting of the Crown Prince issuing a kill order.” We pickedup the Audio of a conversation President Macron speaking with the sameCrown Prince

In the audio, it is possible to make out the prince saying “Don’tworry”, to which @EmmanuelMacron responds “I am worried”MbS: "Don't worry."Macron: "I do worry. I am worried."MbS: inaudible "That's right"Macron: "I told you."MbS: "Yes, you told me."Macron: "You never listen to me."MbS: "No, I listen of course."Macron: "Because I told you..."MbS: "It's OK"Macron: "I am a man of my word."

Japan's Prime Minister Abe congratulated President Trump on hishistoric mid-term victory. That 14 second Video is just priceless forPotus's reaction. Potus himself was under the Mueller Hammer and hisone time Fixer Michael Cohen singing like a Canary. There were so manymore details, the Group Photo and the positioning. This was dramaunfolding in real time at a whole another level.

Of course, the big Set Piece Event was inn fact the meeting betweenPresident Trump and China's ''core leader'' President Xi Jinping. Asper Zerohedge, Trump and Xi ate grilled sirloin steaks paired with amalbec from the Argentine winery Catena Zapata. The Dinner ran over bysixty minutes and everyone broke out into spontaneous applause after.

China Xinhua News reported ''Xi, Trump agree that China and theUnited States "can and should" ensure the success of their relations''

The White House - President Trump stated: “This was an amazing andproductive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the UnitedStates and China. It is my great honor to be working with PresidentXi.”

President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately beginnegotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technologytransfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyberintrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both partiesagree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completedwithin the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, theparties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will beraised to 25%.

Howard French said The fentanyl - provisionally - is the only realdevelopment here.

''Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture,has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaningthat people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject toChina’s maximum penalty under the law.''

So where are we? Its been a brutal 2018 in most markets and for thefirst time in Eternity holding $ cash was probably the best trade ofthem all. The FED dialled up interest rates and started to dial downtheir balance sheet. China's markets bled, Emerging Markets gotwalloped, Commodities too, Frontier markets suddenly found the tidewas out. Subsequently and in November, we have seen a nascent reboundin ''riskier''' assets with the Rand for example rebounding over 8%and posting its best month in more than 30 years. After unremittingpressure from the White House, Powell dialled down his hawkishlinguistics.

Investors will of course expect a rebound on Monday, a relief rally,as it were. How long it will last is Anybody's Guess.

Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture,has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaningthat people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject toChina’s maximum penalty under the law.

On Trade, President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he willleave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10% rate,and not raise it to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase anot yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural,energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reducethe trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed tostart purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.

President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately beginnegotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technologytransfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyberintrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both partiesagree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completedwithin the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, theparties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will beraised to 25%.

It was also agreed that great progress has been made with respect toNorth Korea and that President Trump, together with President Xi, willstrive, along with Chairman Kim Jong Un, to see a nuclear free KoreanPeninsula. President Trump expressed his friendship and respect forChairman Kim.

President Xi also stated that he is open to approving the previouslyunapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him.

President Trump stated: “This was an amazing and productive meetingwith unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. Itis my great honor to be working with President Xi.”

The man pulling at the many loose ends of this loosey-goosey businessis working methodically in ways that are only clear in hindsightRobert Mueller is a strategic mastermind cornering a gang ofsimpletons watched by a peanut gallery of gawkers & hecklers

In fact, President Erdogan whose normal modus operandi is one ofbluster and braggadaccio has played this macabre murder on Turkishsoil with finesse and a little like Yehudi Menuhin played the violin.It’s been a virtuoso performance from a geopo- litical perspective.The drip-drip feed has meant closure has been all but impossible forthe House of Saud or is it the House of Salman? Erdogan’s rebound fromzero [you will recall the currency was crashing around his ears nottoo long ago and he was in serious ‘’cold Turkey’’] to hero has beenspectacular.

appointed the 12th Prime Minister of Ethiopia on 2 April 2018. Hegrew up in a Muslim family (Ahmed Ali, his Oromo father; Tezeta Wolde,his mother) and with Oromo Muslim and Christian grandparents. He isevidently a Virilian and Gladwellian Figure.

“To create one contagious movement, you often have to create manysmall movements first.” “Look at the world around you. It may seemlike an immovable, implacable place. It is not, With the slightestpush—in just the right place—it can be tipped.”—Malcolm Gladwell .

He has been Prime Minster for 90 days. During those 90 days, he hascriss-crossed the country, ended a state of emergency, releasedthousands of political prisoners, thawed relations with Eritrea [29Mar 2018 HE Abiy Ahmed @PM_AbiyAhmed - It is time. Lets build a wallof love between #Ethiopia & #Eritrea], bagged a $1b from the UAE,announced a dramatic economic about-turn. In matters language andlinguistics, he has tapped into a ‘’Nelson Mandela’’ 1994 mood. These90 or so days represent the most consequential arrival of an Africanpolitician on the African stage since Mandela walked out of prisonblinking in the sunlight and constructed his ‘’rainbow nation’’.

I was watching the France-Argentina game and the arrival of KylianMbappe on the world stage at the tender age of 19. I recalled watchingthe Whirling Dervishes of the Mevlevi order on a night of a full moonin Konya, Turkey. I thought what they all have in common with AbiyAhmed. It’s all about speed and velocity. Paul Virilio terms it‘dromology’, which he defined as the “science (or logic) of speed“. Henotes that the speed at which something happens may change itsessential nature, and that which moves with speed quickly comes todominate that which is slower.

“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territoryis not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost amatter of movement and circulation.”

Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappearedbecause of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilitiesfor warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather awar of movement. Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the oldguard is like ‘’the traditional feudal fortified city’’.

He said “The ppl of Tigray are still begging for a drop of water; TPLF(the party) is not the people of Tigray”.

On the same day he said, “we are in debt, we have to pay back but wecan’t. And secondarily, we aren’t able to finish projects we havestarted” and announ- ced his economic Pivot. Of course, the downsiderisk of all this infrastructure is plain to see and Sri Lanka and thetale of its Hambantota Port is now a cautio- nary Tale. FX reserveswere at less than a month’s worth of imports and something needed tobe done. Expectations are high.

The Prime Minister needs to execute real quick on the economic frontbut if he levels the playing Field, a whole Troop of folks will belooking to pile in. That Troop will include the Ethiopian Diaspora,Foreign Investors and I am sure our very own Safaricom who must havealready presented the Prime minister with a copy of the MIT researchon M-Pesa which con- firmed access to mobile-money services increaseddaily per capita consumption levels of two percentof Kenyan households, lifting them out of extreme poverty.

Abiy Ahmed’s first 90 days have been as remarkable as the less than 90minutes of France’s Mbappe’s performance on Saturday.

Over the past month, Tanzanian politics has been making internationalheadlines. Journalists representing the Committee to ProtectJournalists were detained in Dar es Salaam, the country’s commercialcapital. The government expelled pregnant girls from school. PaulMakonda, the regional commissioner for Dar, announced plans to roundup LGBT people. Eventually, the rest of the government distanceditself from Makonda, but the damage was done. Donors have withdrawnaid. The European Union and the United States condemned these humanrights abuses.

What’s going on? Since 1961, Tanzania has been ruled by the sameparty, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). While it has never been a democracy,Tanzania had been better known as a safari tourism destination and asa donor darling. How have things become so repressive so quickly?

The answer lies in the 2015 election of John Magufuli as president.Since then, opposition politicians have been arrested, harassed andbeaten. TV offices have been raided and newspapers suspended. Regimecritics — journalists, business executives, opposition politicians,student leaders — have been kidnapped, forced into exile orassassinated by “unknown assailants.” Some have never been seen again.Much more violence outside Dar es Salaam hasn’t been reported, even inthe Tanzanian press.

Tanzania’s president has delegated the government’s repression tolocal officials

Much of this violence has been kept quiet because it has been local.Magufuli’s autocratic enforcers are a cadre of local officials. Onpaper, the 26 regional commissioners and 139 district commissionersare nonpartisan appointees who oversee elected local governments andpolicing functions. In practice, they are party loyalists or formermilitary officers. They exploit their oversight role, often violently,to deal with local problems that might challenge the president.

That role is especially significant in Dar es Salaam. RegionalCommissioner Makonda, seen as Magufuli’s apprentice, does much of thegovernment’s dirty work. The government has shied away from openrepression, which could lead to losing international aid and moderatevoters’ support. Through local officials, Magufuli can use violence —while still being able to distance himself from an “unruly localofficial” when necessary.

Makonda’s crackdown on LGBT people followed this formula. But thistime, Magufuli’s closeness to Makonda undermined his plausibledeniability. Tanzanians see regional and district commissioners as thepresident’s hands at that level. Makonda’s threats were allowed tostand for more than a week to send a message. Internationaldisapproval forced the foreign affairs minister to issue a statementdisavowing him.

Nevertheless, hundreds of LGBT people are still in hiding. They knewthe censure was lip service. Tanzanians see Makonda’s actions as amore reliable sign of the president’s wishes than an internationalproclamation.

Why has this president escalated the government’s violence and repression?

This president’s control over his party and the voters is shakier thanthat of his predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete. Magufuli’s nomination as thecandidate of the ruling party, CCM, took everyone by surprise. He wondespite not having broad support. What’s more, Magufuli faces anunprecedented threat from opposition parties. CCM may have never losta presidential election, but it has lost many local elections. In2015, opposition parties won control of most urban local governments.This was no small loss. Local government is highly important,providing education, health care and water. Opposition localgovernments are the only examples Tanzanians have ever had ofopposition politicians with real power. The result is a threat to CCM:Why vote for the devil you know if another party can demonstrably runa city of 200,000 or even 5 million people?

My research explores the strategies CCM uses to manage these localopposition threats. Between 2015 and 2018, I conducted hundreds ofinterviews with voters, politicians and officials in both CCM andopposition areas. I find that regional and district commissioners takea more active and violent role in areas where the opposition runslocal governments. They make it difficult for opposition governmentsto effectively deliver public services, thereby simultaneouslypunishing those who voted for the opposition and discreditingopposition parties.

These commissioners increasingly operate with unchecked power. Thismonth, Iringa’s regional commissioner unilaterally removed theopposition mayor, Alex Kimbe, from his post under suspicion ofcorruption. Kimbe, a popular and often defiant local figure, has beenarrested frequently on spurious charges. They have also beenimplicated in attacking civilians — something the ruling party triesto keep hidden. For instance, opposition MP Zitto Kabwe revealed thatauthorities and herders had clashed in his region of Kigoma, allegedlyleaving more than 100 dead. After Kabwe made the allegation,authorities charged him with sedition.

Outside Dar es Salaam, most government violence is directed atopposition parties and their supporters. CCM has paid dozens ofopposition councilors to switch sides since 2016. In Morogoro, a“swing” city, one opposition councilor was assassinated in 2018 afterrefusing to switch. After these councilors switch sides, new electionsare required — and are often quite violent. Regional and districtcommissioners in the regions of Iringa, Arusha and Mbeya ordered thearrest, violent harassment and torture of opposition politicians andsupporters during such campaigns.

Magufuli, a devout Christian, is keen to win over the party’sincreasingly evangelical base. Constantine Manda, a doctoralresearcher at Yale, argues that Makonda’s actions against LGBT peopleare intended to convince voters of Magufuli’s socially conservativeagenda. That’s why commissioners are ordering the arrests of LGBTpeople and sex workers across the country; why Makonda bannedpornography in Dar es Salaam; and why the Tandahimba districtcommissioner and others ordered pregnant schoolgirls arrested.

Until now, few outside Tanzania have paid any attention to thecommissioners’ repressive or violent actions. But no more. Makonda andMagufuli are too closely linked for the president to escaperesponsibility. Politics in Dar is also more visible because of theheavy journalistic, diplomatic and NGO presence.

This week Magufuli declared that he prefers Chinese aid, which comeswith no conditions — suggesting that Western governments’ traditionaltool to pressure governments to protect human rights may no longerwork. Will increased scrutiny have any consequences, or willrepression continue in earnest now that the mask is finally off?

The low development trap— Africa’s urban economies are limited to nontradable goods and servicesCrowded, disconnected, and thus costly — Africa’s cities are limitedto nontradables by urban formClosed for business, out of service: The urgency of a new urbandevelopment path for Africa

African cities are crowded, disconnected, and costly.Typical African cities share three features that constrain urbandevelopment and create daily challenges for residents:Crowded, not economically dense — investments in infrastructure,industrial and commercial structures have not kept pace with theconcentration of people, nor have investments in affordable formalhousing; congestion and its costs overwhelm the benefits of urbanconcentration.Disconnected — cities have developed as collections of small andfragmented neighborhoods, lacking reliable transportation and limitingworkers’ job opportunities while preventing firms from reaping scaleand agglomeration benefits.Costly for households and for firms — high nominal wages andtransaction costs deter investors and trading partners, especially inregionally and internationally tradable sectors; workers’ high food,housing, and transport costs increase labor costs to firms and thusreduce expected returns on investment.55% African households face higher costs relative to their per capitaGDP than do households in other regions — much of it accounted for byhousing, which costs them a full 55 percent more in this comparisonAfrican cities are 20 percent more fragmented than are Asian and LatinAmerican ones472 million Urban areas in Africa comprise 472 million people. Thatnumber will double over the next 25 years as more migrants are pushedto cities from the countryside. The largest cities grow as fast as 4percent annually.African cities are closed to the world. Compared with other developingcities, cities in Africa produce few goods and services for trade onregional and international marketsTo grow economically as they are growing in size, Africa’s cities mustopen their doors to the world. They need to specialize inmanufacturing, along with other regionally and globally tradable goodsand services. And to attract global investment in tradablesproduction, cities must develop scale economies, which are associatedwith successful urban economic development in other regions.Such scale economies can arise in Africa, and they will — if city andcountry leaders make concerted efforts to bring agglomeration effectsto urban areas. Today, potential urban investors and entrepreneurslook at Africa and see crowded, disconnected, and costly cities. Suchcities inspire low expectations for the scale of urban production andfor returns on invested capital. How can these cities becomeeconomically dense — not merely crowded? How can they acquireefficient connections? And how can they draw firms and skilled workerswith a more affordable, livable urban environment?From a policy standpoint, the answer must be to address the structuralproblems affecting African cities. Foremost among these problems areinstitutional and regulatory constraints that misallocate land andlabor, fragment physical development, and limit productivity.Since the 1980s, much of the growth in developing countries hasdepended on the expansion of exports through industrial production andhigher technology. Unlike nontradables, tradable goods and servicesface elastic global demand. They may also allow for agglomerationeconomies, which increase returns to employment (box 1). Rapidlygrowing cities require growth in employment — and the returns toexpanding employment are highest in tradable sectors.Because of manufacturing’s importance in entering regional and globalmarkets, one can look at the share of manufacturing in GDP to seewhether an urbanizing economy is opening its doors to the world — orclosing them. For example, we compare the structures of non-Africanand African economies during periods when the urbanized share of thepopulation rises to 60 percent. Based on a cross-section of Africanand non-African economies, the comparison shows that Africa’s citiesare indeed trapped in the production of nontradables for localmarkets. As the African economies attain 60 percent urbanization,their share of manufacturing in GDP stays flat (or somewhat falling)at about 10 percent. In contrast, the manufacturing share of thenon-African economies rises from 10 percent to nearly 20 percent(falling back only when urbanization exceeds 60 percent).Why have African urban economies remained local? Two reasons standout. One, paradoxically, is natural resource development. Suchdevelopment can create a high demand for nontradable goods andservices. As growth in the natural resource sector raises factorprices, this sector crowds out others — notably manufacturing (figure2). Countries that depend heavily on natural resource exports tend tosprout urban economies dominated by nontradable services (“consumptioncities”). This syndrome is known as Dutch Disease.What is an urban agglomeration economy, and how does it arise fromeconomic density? A simple case is the reduction of transport costsfor goods: When suppliers are close to their customers, shipping costsdecline. In the late nineteenth century, four fifths of Chicago’s jobswere compactly located within four miles of State and Madison Streets— near residences and infrastructure (Grover and Lall 2015). And inthe early 1900s, New York and London were manufacturing powerhousesbecause factories were built there to access customers and transportservices. Many agglomeration benefits increase with scale: Eachdoubling of city size increases productivity by 5 percent, and theelasticity of income with respect to city population is between 3percent and 8 percent (Rosenthal and Strange 2004).Certain public goods — like infrastructure and basic services — arecheaper to provide when populations are large and densely packedtogether. Firms located near each other can share suppliers, loweringinput costs. Thick labor markets reduce search costs, giving firms alarger pool of workers to choose from. And spatial proximity makes iteasier for workers to share information and learn from each other.International evidence shows that knowledge spillovers play a key rolein boosting the productivity of successful cities.Cities in Africa are not delivering agglomeration economies or reapingurban productivity benefits; instead, they suffer from high costs forfood, housing, and transport. These high costs — rising fromcoordination failures, poorly designed policies, weak property rights,and other factors that lower economic density — lock firms intoproducing nontradable goods and services.Many Sub-Saharan African cities share three characteristics thatconstrain economic development and growth. Two appear directly in thecities’ physical structures and spatial form: They are crowded withpeople and dwellings, and they are disconnected by a lack of transportand other infrastructure. Finally, and in Part because they aredisconnected, cities are also costly. Indeed, they are among thecostliest in the world, both for firms and for households — not leastbecause of their inefficient spatial form.African cities are crowded in that they are packed with people wholive in unplanned, informal downtown dwellings to be near jobs. Why?The immediate reason is that the urbanization of people is notaccompanied by an urbanization of capital (box 2). Housing,infrastructures, and other capital investments are lacking. Across theregion, housing investment lags urbanization by nine years (Dasgupta,Lall, and Lozano-Gracia 2014).Africa’s cities feel crowded precisely because they are not dense witheconomic activity, infrastructure, or housing and commercialstructures. Without adequate formal housing in reach of jobs, andwithout transport systems to connect people living farther away,Africans forgo services and amenities to live in cramped quarters neartheir work. Often informal, these downtown districts are likely tolack adequate infrastructure and access to basic services. It is truethat, within Africa as in other developing regions, population densityis generally and strongly correlated with indicators of livability.For example, access to services is higher for African households inurban areas than in rural ones (Gollin, Kirchberger, and Lagakos2016). But this relative advantage does not imply that cities arelivable enough. Across Africa, 60 percent of the urban population ispacked into slums — much higher than the 34 percent seen elsewhere(United Nations 2015a)or example, in both Harare, Zimbabwe and Maputo, Mozambique, more than30 percent of land within five kilometers of the central businessdistrict remains unbuilt. This land near the core is not left unbuiltby design in African cities, as it can be in well- developed downtownssuch as Paris (which reserves 14 percent of downtown land for greenspace, making densely populated districts more livable). Instead,outdated and poorly enforced city plans, along with dysfunctionalproperty markets, create inefficient land use patterns that no oneintended. The downtown lacks structures — despite being crowded.In Dar es Salaam, 28 percent of residents live at least three to aroom; in Abidjan, 50 percent (World Bank 2015a, World Bank 2016). Andin Lagos, Nigeria, two out of three people dwell in slums One factorin the crowding of Africa’s cities is their lack of capitalinvestment, which for the past four decades has remained relativelylowin the region, at around 20 percent of GDP. In contrast, urbanizingcountries in East Asia — China, Japan, the Republic of Korea — steppedup capital investment during their periods of rapid urbanization.Between 1980 and 2011, China’s capital investment (infrastructure,housing, and office buildings) rose from 35 percent of GDP to 48percent, while the urban share of its population rose from 18 percentto 52 percent between1978 and 2012. In East Asia as a whole, capital investment remainedabove 40 percent of GDP at the end of this period.In 1968, when countries in the Middle East and North Africa regionbecame 40 percent urban, their per capita GDP was $1,800 (2005constant dollars). And in 1994, when countries in the East Asia andPacific region surpassed the same threshold, their per capita GDP was$3,600. By contrast, Africa, with 40 percent urbanization, today has aper capita GDP of just $1,000Connections among people as a function of population near the citycenter: Nairobi, Kenya is more fragmented and less well-connected thanPune, IndiaAfrica’s generally low levels of urban capital investment also appearin the assessed worth of building stock. For example, the totaleconomic value of buildings in Dar es Salaam is estimated at aroundUS$12 billion (Ishizawa and Gunasekera 2016), or just less than threetimes the city’s share of GDP. Even lower are the estimated values forNairobi, Kenya ($9 billion) and Kigali, Rwanda ($2 billion). Comparedwith cities in Central America, African cities have low replacementvalues for their built-up area, built-floor area, and population.Thus, Nairobi has the highest replacement value per square kilometeramong the four African cities studied, yet it is just 60 percent ofthe value of Tegucigalpa, which has the lowest among six CentralAmerican cities.In Nairobi, for example, commercial and industrial structures explain55 percent of the total value of building stock — even though thesestructures occupy just 4 percent of the city’s area. Residentialdevelopment is urgently lacking.While the lack of capital by itself might not always pose an obstacleto economic growth, African cities also are disconnected in that theyare spatially dispersed. Structures are scattered in smallneighborhoods. Without adequate roads or transport systems, commutingis slow and costly, denying workers access to jobs throughout thelarger urban area. People and firms are separated from each other andfrom economic opportunity. And because urban form is determined bylong-lived structures that shape the city for decades — if notcenturies — cities that assume a disconnected form can easily becomelocked into it.The lack of connections among neighborhoods means that African cities,compared with developed and developing cities elsewhere, show bothlower exposure and higher fragmentation in connections among peopleliving near the city center.• Low exposure means that people are disconnected from each other. Ata given distance (usually 10 kilometers), they cannot interact with asmany people as in a city with higher exposure.• High fragmentation means that within a specified area, populationdensity varies widely: Its peaks are scattered, not clustered in a waythat could promote scale economies. Fragmentation increasesinfrastructure costs, while it lengthens travel times among homes, jobsites, and businesses.According to a new study of 265 cities in 70 countries that controlsfor total population and per capita GDP, average exposure near thecenter is 37 percent lower in African cities than in Asian and LatinAmerican cities, while African cities are 23 percent more fragmented(Henderson and Nigmatulina 2016). The contrast between Nairobi, Kenyaand Pune, India illustrates these differences (figure 3).One pattern that explains the low exposure and high fragmentation ofAfrican cities is their relative lack of new development near thecenter. New construction is not clustered to make capital moreconcentrated and increase economic density. Instead, it tends to pushthe boundaries of the city outward. In urban development language,this kind of building-out represents either expansion or leapfrogdevelopment; opposed to both is infill, which makes cities denser.In Nairobi, the average journey-to-work time is one of the longest for15 global cities studied (IBM 2011). Part of the reason is thatwalking accounts for a large share of commuting — in Nairobi about 41percent (UNEP and FIA Foundation 2013). But even if more city dwellerscould afford transport by car or minibus, commutes would remainimpractical for lack of roads. In eight representative African cities,roads occupy far lower shares of urban land than in other citiesaround the world.The spatial fragmentation of Africa’s cities prevents firms fromreaping both scale and agglomeration benefits. It prevents scaleeconomies by reducing workers’ access to jobs, constraining firm size:Africa’s urban firms employ 20 percent fewer workers on average thancomparable firms elsewhere (Iacovone, Ramachandran, and Schmidt 2014).In addition, spatial fragmentation hinders agglomeration economies bypreventing job market pooling and matching and the transfer of skillsand knowledge — a special concern in light of African cities’ lowhuman capital endowments.In sum, the ideal city can be viewed economically as an efficientlabor market that matches employers and job seekers throughconnections (Bertaud 2014). The typical African city fails in thismatchmaker role.Africa’s higher urban living costs appear in rents, food prices, andprices for other goods and services. City dwellers pay around 35percent more for food in Africa than in low-income and middle-incomecountries elsewhere: a premium that looms larger given the high shareof African household incomes that goes to food. Even higherdifferentials apply to urban housing (55 percent higher in urban areasof African countries, relative to their income levels) and transport(42 percent higher in African cities than cities elsewhere, includingvehicle prices and transport services). Overall, urban households pay20 to 31 percent more for goods and services in African countries thanin other developing countriesThe informal, often colorful minibus systems that dominate collectivemotorized transit in most African cities are far from cost-efficient:The buses’ low load factor (passenger capacity) prevents them fromrealizing scale economies. For the poorest urban residents especially,the cost of vehicle transport in some cities is prohibitive, asmeasured in a study from 2008 (figure 8). The need to walk to worklimits these residents’ access to jobs.unit labor costs are three times higher in Djiboutiville, Djibouti,than in Mumbai, India and 20 percent higher in Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniathan in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Urban plans are largely ineffective in Africa. One reason is that theyare divorced from reality:

The first time we saw the road was the day the Air Kenya Bombardiercircled the airstrip at the Samburu National Reserve, where elephantconservationist Ian Douglas-Hamilton was running his research station.We saw it again on the day we went up in Douglas-Hamilton’s Cessna, tosearch for fresh carcasses. And we saw it up close on the day we paida visit to a Turkana village, whose men had been recruited by Chineseconstruction workers to slaughter as many of the matriarchs as theycould.

“The poachers are living out in the bush in gangs of between two and10,” we were told by Francis Lorot, the only villager brave enough togo on-record. “An elephant can take pain, sometimes up to 40 bulletsbefore she dies. The killers are scared to death, because they are notexperts. An expert can kill with one bullet.”

In villages like this across central and northern Kenya, we learnt,men with no experience in elephant killing could earn a $55 sign-upfee, the equivalent of a labourer’s monthly salary. The fee wasexclusive of meals and AK47 bullets, while the ivory split wasdependent on the size of the tusks. When an elephant was killed, Lorottold us, a call was put through via cellphone to a middleman inArcher’s Post, Isiolo or Wamba. The middleman, always a local, wouldhire a taxi for the day and direct it to the point on the road closestto the kill. Only the tusks would be packed into the taxi, “no meat”.After enough tusks had been accumulated in his secret warehouse, themiddleman would get ready to make his move.

“Then they’re taken to the Chinese,” said Lorot, “or to Nairobi.”

And so on that day, a Tuesday in June 2011, we were left in no doubtthat the catalyst in our story—the chief protagonist—was this verysame road. Back then, the state-owned Chinese construction company wasclose to completing the 505-kilometre stretch that would connectIsiolo in central Kenya to Moyale in the north. The stretch, which cutthrough the acacias and doum palms of the lava plains, was a new linkon the Trans-African Highway that was supposed to make good on thelong-deferred dream of “Cape Town to Cairo”. Beyond Moyale and theEthiopian border, the stretch was destined to tack on to anothercritical link, the 197-kilometre run from Hawassa to Ageremariam,which would in turn complete the Addis Ababa-Nairobi-Mombasa corridor.

Kenya’s borrowing remains manageable, its treasury secretary said,looking to quash concerns after the International Monetary Fund raisedits assessment of the country’s risk of debt distress to moderate.The East African nation’s nominal debt-to-gross domestic product isstill sustainable at 55 percent, far lower than the IMF’s upperthreshold of 74 percent, while the net value of the debt is less thanhalf of GDP, Henry Rotich told a conference Sunday.The IMF analysis shows Kenya’s debt is sustainable, although the riskof distress “has moved from low to moderate” in exceptionalcircumstances, Rotich said in the capital, Nairobi. “But this is basedon extreme shocks, like if growth falls to almost zero, if the countryfaces high interest rates or a sharp depreciation of the currency.”“These are the conditions under which the debt can move to moderaterisk,” he said. “But Kenya is not a high-risk country.”Focus on Kenyan debt has intensified since it more than doubled in thepast six years to 5.15 trillion shillings ($50.2 billion). The IMFannounced its risk revision in October and warned the borrowing israising fiscal vulnerabilities and increasing interest payments.Rotich attributed recent rises in debt to infrastructure spending andsaid the government is addressing the issue, targeting a fiscaldeficit of 3 percent by 2022. The deficit peaked at 8.9 percent in the2016-17 financial year.”We have continuously implemented fiscal consolidation and plan toaccess private sector resources through public private partnerships tofund infrastructure development going forward,” he said.The IMF also judged Kenya’s shilling at least 17.5 percent overvaluedand no longer floating -- an assessment disputed by the central bank.Rotich said stability in the currency, one of Africa’s best-performingthis year, is helping keep debt at sustainable levels.”Our market is flexible; if you want foreign currency you go to themarket and get it,” he said in a separate interview. “No one ismanaging the currency, so as is typical in a free market, there can beno over-valuation or undervaluation.”

accepted yield coming in at 12.2% This is attributed to the saturationof long-end offers, leading to a relatively flat yield curve on thelong-end, making Treasury rely on the short-term treasury bills tomeet its domestic borrowing target. We are of the view that theGovernment will need to offer more incentive for the long-term bondsby increasing the yields to attract investors.