X Factor 2012 Audition Show 5: Amy Mottram = Leona, GMD3 = JLS?

Posted by Andrew

Audition show 5 was the one to be on last year. It introduced us to Marcus Collins’s preternatural cheeriness and Amelia Lily’s supportive dad, as well as including a montage that featured Perrie Edwards, who would later lead Little Mix to their unlikely victory. Will this year’s equivalent show prove to have launched any, let alone all, of the eventual top three?

Producers seemed keen to plant the idea of an equivalence between X Factor high water mark Leona Lewis and auditionee Amy Mottram. The latter talked about Leona being her idol before – surprise! – learning that she would be the guest judge, and VTed backstage that Leona knew what it was like to start out as an auditionee. Then Leona’s song belted out in the background as the judges dished out their four yeses. This apparent attempt to link the two in our minds may perhaps be a hint that producers have big things in mind for young Amy.

She certainly came across as an endearingly bubbly personality and easy to warm to, and having an Essex regional base to draw on should do her no harm (although she may end up splitting it with Rylan Clark). If she makes it to the lives along with Ella Henderson, that will give Louis twice the opportunities to say “I can’t believe you’re only 16”.

Amy’s vocals seemed a little way short of justifying the Leona comparison just yet – indeed, a case could be made that she was outshone by one or two of the three girls whose attempts to impress Leona were subsequently montaged, suggesting less producer interest in them – deep-voiced Georgia Garrett, Charlotte Reavey and Sharon Rose.

But at least Amy’s soulful tone means she brings something distinctive to the party. Bookies were split, with opening quotes ranging from 6/1 to 20/1. If there proves to be any significance to Unreality TV’s remark that Amy has been tweeting Tulisa’s personal assistant post-judges’ houses, that bigger price could look more than fair.

“This competition’s changed since I was on it”, observed Leona after witnessing tonight’s first auditionee, Eddy String, strut around the stage. Yes, Leona. Yes, it has. Although it evidently hasn’t changed too much from 2011, as Eddy’s audition felt like we were rewatching Frankie Cocozza in a parallel world eerily similar to our own.

Big-haired, tight-trousered, slappably cocky and even from the town neighbouring Frankie’s on the south coast, Eddy did the rock star thing with a precociousness that can be forgiven in an 18-year-old. It seems unlikely that producers will want to serve up a character in the lives who keeps reminding us of the dodgy goods they kept trying to push on us 12 months ago – but if they do, it’s hard to envisage him getting a great deal further. 80/1 makes little appeal.

You wait weeks for a passable three-piece boyband to come along, then two arrive in a weekend. Following on from Saturday’s mildly original guitar-wielding, beatboxing outfit Times Red we had an altogether more cookie-cutter boyband in the shape of GMD3.

Despite having a name unimaginatively made up of their initials, GMD3 reportedly already have a management deal and an impressive following on social media. Vocally they were nothing special, but that’s never stopped cute teen boybands in the past. Louis Walsh, rumoured to have the groups this year, bestowed upon them a JLS comparison.

Despite obvious questions about how they might fit into the Syco stable alongside One Direction, all of this suggests that there may be some producer heft behind these boys. If so, it will be interesting to see if being a three-piece rather than a five-piece, and pre-show friends instead of bootcamp-manufactured, will help them gel with the voting public. With the usual caveats about the particular unpredictability of this category, a top price of 20/1 seems reasonable enough.

We then saw a montage of other groups getting waved through to bootcamp – Mitsotu, District Line and Duke – but their relative lack of screentime makes it seem unlikely that any will be in it for the long haul.

I wonder how scripted was the audition by MK1 (who surely now have to become MK2). Having the “writer and producer… I sing as well” fall on his sword was, on the face of it, a memorable way to introduce the group to the public, and an interesting twist on the BGT Charlotte and Jonathan tactic. But if Will was expecting to have his hopelessness pointed out, he did a fine job of appearing genuinely shocked and humiliated – and then proceeded to make himself look dickish by anxiously discussing percentages in their on-stage conflab, as if he’d accidentally stepped on the remote control and found himself on Dragons’ Den.

MK1 were another to split the bookies, opening at prices ranging from 8/1 to 40/1, and while the former price looks ludicrously short I find myself sharing their general ambivalence. It’s conceivable that this was a set-up for a storyline that will run and run as the other two members go from strength to strength and look for ways to dump their bespectacled “accountant”, hovering enviously in the wings. But equally, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if their purpose in the show has been served already with this entertaining audition and they’re now quietly dumped.

There was no Olly Murs Interview to analyse Amy Mottram got the Olly Murs Interview on Xtra Factor tonight, showing off her clothes collection, flirting in a cinema and singing in a pub. If you missed it, you’re unlikely to have missed anything else that might portend much for the lives.

My thoughts: Amy was good indeed but I didn’t feel she was outstanding – for instance, she wasn’t as good as Jade Richards last year. If she makes the lives I don’t see her as top 4 material – might she be a good back-to-lay? “Eddy String” was uniquely awful and it was clear from the tweets sent out by the official X Factor account during his audition that the show isn’t taking him seriously. They learnt their lesson with Skanky Cockguzzler last year. I didn’t connect with Georgia (bootcamp fodder), liked Charlotte (thought not as much as Megan yesterday) and really liked Sharon. In fact, despite their brief audition times, her and Megan are probably my favourite girls along with Melanie.

Groups: I didn’t like GMD3 (what a hilariously stupid name) and found them irritating but if they get through, teen/tween girls will vote for them every week. That in itself could be a reason either to put them through or to not put them through. MK1: I swear Tim B said “singing accountant” to me on Facebook about a minute before Gary said the same! Liked the girl’s voice but can’t see the duo working at all – they’re doomed, and like you, I suspect their narrative purpose on the show has largely been served. Can’t see them making the lives as is, though it’s of course possible that either of them could be cannibalised into another group. Pouty, hapless, entitled Will made a terrible impression trying to svengali the other two – I was gaping at the nasty-edged price talk and surprised he was so shocked by the feedback he received. As a “writer and producer”, you’d think he’d know he doesn’t belong on the stage; he seemed to think he was the new will.i.am, but like the judges, my reaction was more will.you.naffoff. The group with the beatboxing bear (Duke) seemed sonically interesting from what little we heard. District Line were fine but can’t see them going far. Ditto Deirdre on Xtra Factor, she’s funny but she’s far too rough around the edges both vocally and personality-wise.

We’ve heard lots of competent singers this year, but what’s still missing so far is something who injects a lot of their own emotion into a song and has their own take on it – like, for instance, Craig, Misha and Kitty last year. There hasn’t been anyone of that musical calibre yet.

I’ve personally found it bland too but it seems a “strong” year as it looks like only one joke act (instead of 3 or so) in Rylan. And 3 of the top 4 in the betting wrote their own stuff for their audition.

And we’ve yet to see Starboy Nathan and Leanne Robinson.

I’m interested to see what the Betfair market will look like when it opens.

Sunday was better with indeed more competent singers and a surprise pimp slot climax 🙂 We still didn’t see the winner and probably will not see it next week also so it looks like an open year. I’m curious to see if there is a place for both Ella and Amy in the lives. Btw will the format from the last year known as ‘big twist’ be repeated? That would mean a sacrificial lamb in each category, probably on the expense of someone better who don’t make it…

Hi Boki, nothing yet on any ‘twist’ so the assumption for viewers is three acts from each category to go through to a 12-person contest in the live shows. Of course, a twist revealed in the week between judges’ houses and the first live show is usually good publicity.

If there is no new ‘twist’ this year, why not assuming that the format changed permanently last year and the 16-person lives became the default? Of course, if somewhere is mentioned that 12 will be the number than ignore my post 🙂

I for one would be amazed if there wasn’t both a twist and a final 16 – there has been both in the last 2 years. Personally I really liked the twist in 2010 with the wildcards where they brought back people like Wagner and Diva Fever. I thought it had an effective emotional impact so I’m hoping for the same to happen this time.

Hi Boki, I think it’s been reported that the mentors are choosing 3 this year – but as Tim says, after the last couple of years it would be amazing if there’s no twist again this time.

Three obvious possibilities for a twist –

(a) the 2010 twist again – a last-minute addition to each category, moving from 12 acts to 16;

(b) the Melanie Amaro twist from USXF 2011, when Simon decided he’d made a “mistake” and added her as an additional act in his own category. One could imagine a controversial omission at JH (say, Ella or Jahmene) followed by footage of a furious Cowell on the phone personally demanding their reinstatement. That would give us a total of 13 acts.

(c) a fifth judge is appointed to mentor a “wildcards” category, and is given free rein to choose three acts rejected by the other mentors at JH. They’ve never done this before but it’s such an obvious thing to do, and Cheryl Cole would be the obvious one to do it with.

One reason to suspect a twist of some sort is that, assuming 10 weeks of live shows as usual, going in with only 12 acts doesn’t leave you any scope for a double eviction if you want to have three acts in the final.

For typically perverse reasons, Episode 5 was my favourite so far: due to the emergence of the third member of this year’s rogue gallery, which (in my mind) now consists of Arthur, Spraggan… and String. Estate agent serving the outer realms of Hell, if you like.

As The Beatles famously sang: ‘Say the word and you’ll be free/Say the word and be like me’ – the word is String.

Where to start on String? Firstly, it’s genuinely pleasing to me that Digital Spy et al have finally latched on to one of the contestants by name. There were more threads for String on there last time I looked than for anyone else at any point in the series so far, most of them with functional (perhaps bewildered) titles like ‘Eddie String’, and ‘Why do you hate Eddie String?’

As with Arthur’s audition, the more I force myself to re-live String’s life-changing moment the more I grow to appreciate its pristine awfulness. Forget so bad it’s good; with String it’s so bad it’s almost mystical. It’s a source of genuine sorrow to me that the String will doubtless be severed way before the lives, because shit like this doesn’t come along every day. I can almost hear the hungry ghost of John Reith wailing in despair.

Even better is the way String’s emergence has prompted a wave of indignation from those charged with defending the artistic integrity of that veritable icon of culture… Frankie Cocozza. Cocozza was real, raw, so the argument goes, whereas String is merely a pale chimera, Cocozza-lite. Cocozza ‘without the talent’? Can people not hear how ridiculous that sounds?

Anyway – from Cocozza, briefly, to Mozza: a man who famously walked through Rome ‘with my heart on a string’. God bless you, Eddie. I believe.

This is very interesting indeed. It’s a very tough competition and I give close to zero chance for the last year rejectees. Which girls and boys are going to the lives is a biggest question mark, I would say Lucy has the biggest chance due to being so different, on the other hand if they let her to the lives I believe she wouldn’t be easy to get rid of when her time comes (I dare to compare to Janet for completely other reasons though). Most probably I’m talking bollocks but curious to see how her treatment develops.

I was very impressed with “Duke” the beatbox group and am surprised you have given them so little coverage in this week’s article. True, there wasn’t much of them on the show but what I saw was enough to make me read up about them “Duke” have been around for years and are an incredible live act with an established following. Their sound is amazing and they would light up the live shows. The lead singer is slightly weak but the talent of the three is just astonishing. they are available at 100/1 at the moment and I have been out this morning and had a right good wedge on them – not that you need to at those odds. Have a look at them on Youtube. I reckon we will here a great deal more of this band before the show is through and the odds of 100/1 will look like the biggest giveaway since Hoover’s 1993 free flight promotion!

Hi Simon, the reason we gave Duke so little coverage in the article is that producers gave them so little screentime in the show, indicating a lack of desire to help them to build up a following among viewers. Unless we see a lot more of them at bootcamp, the assumption has to be that they’re not being lined up for the lives – or, if they are, only as fodder for an early exit.

Of course, assumptions are there to be overturned, and producers’ desires are there to be thwarted. Good luck! 🙂

I can’t see them making the lives. They’re good at what they do but their sound is just too chaotic and they’re not right for the show. They’re also older than the age of group that the show likes to have. If MK1 do get through (as spoilers indicate) then Duke would be far too similar and with the wrong demographic.

Hi guys, views and reasoning respected as always but I hope and believe they are misplaced. GMD3’s audition was pretty awful, the singing and vocal arrangements were very average and it wasn’t an original song. It’s exactly the kind of act that has been served up year after year which accounts for why the show is losing its viewers. You rightly question where GMD3 wouyld fit in the Sycho stable and the answer is ‘with difficulty’. MK1/2 were a Tulisa copycat type band designed to give the judges some profile but they were not original and the foreyed accountant line is just to make them cannon fodder for later. I would agree with you about “Duke” and the airplay but why whet the public’s appetite by dwelling so long on the judges ecstatic comments – they will look rather foolish if they then go and drop them before the live shows. They look like they are already through Bootcamp if you believe Digital Spy’s spoiler who gave them a 10//10 for performance. One of the guys is old for the show (31) but he is also the “Beatboxer” in the group and his talent is just astonishing. Remember American idol several years ago when there was a beatboxer on the show who made it to the live finals because he was different and everyone tuned in each week to see this amazing skill of his. Well “Duke” are an extremely tight polished talented and well rehersed pocket battleship of original material and I believe there is a killing to be made before the 100/1 goes. You have to sometimes think outside the box, especially when the show is slumping and put yourself in the shoes of the producers. more of the same isn’t going to fix the ratings so put something on that is not only brilliant but original.

“Duke” tick all the boxes and their current odds are the biggest giveaway since West Ham let Newcastle have Demba Ba on a free transfer.

The beatboxer (Ed) in DUKE is MUCH more talkented – just do a quick youtuvbe search if you dont belive me.. he can do things with his voice thats unheard of… the “beatboxing” in times red is standard the same as olly murs! they (times red) should stik to singing which is what they are good at.
p.s looks are not everything!

Still not buying it. Are you sure you’re not trying to convince yourself? They don’t have an underdog/sympathy story that we know of, didn’t get much audition time, are too niche an act to have broad popular appeal (I have a very broad musical palate but I’m not mad about the beatboxing – people will find it offputting), too old for younger voters to like and not normal/ordinary enough to appeal to people, and the spoilers (however much credence you place in those) don’t indicate they make it. Novelty beatboxing has had its day. I watched their version of Kiss By A Rose, it had good vocals and harmonies but the beatboxing ruined it.

As far as I remember, the judges’ positive comments weren’t dwelled on any more than in any of the other short auditions (Megan, Sharon, Mitsotu etc.), so arguing that the judges “will look rather foolish if they then go and drop them before the live shows” is fallacious – look at Jade Richards, Joe Cox, Melanie McCabe, John Adams, John Wilding, Lascel Woods, Terry Winstanley etc. last year. Acts get raved about, emoted over, pimped and built up, then dropped (quietly or loudly) all the time, and Duke weren’t even really raved about. There’s a reason the German word for these types of show is Castingshow and that’s because when you’re producing an entertainment show on this scale, casting is what it’s all about. People that make a good story for the audition shows aren’t necessarily right for the lives; a dead gran and an Adele song can make for a great 8-minute TV moment but that doesn’t necessarily mean the show thinks the singer in question is suitable casting material for 2 months of live primetime shows. The audition shows and the live shows have overlapping but different requirements.

Ella – She has been given too much of a janet pimping and a semi-deity aura not to make the lives, but you never know. I would love to see a melanie amaro ooops-we-were-wrong-to-dumb-u-at-JH-pls-come-back treatment and having 4 girls could be tulisa’s bonus for winning last year. Janet had similar odds last year at this stage and became shorter after the end of the last audition show and considerably shorter during the first live shows. I expect something similar, unless there’s a shock JH exit.

Boys & Kye – I need to see more of Jahmene & Kye to form an opinion, but there have been rumours on digital spy about these two both making it and not making it, with some bookmakers changing their odds accordingly. Jahmene, with the right producers’ love, could be the boy to make the final and add credibility to the show in the process too. Not your average type of boy voice to make the final that guy! If the 3 boys making the lives are Jahmene-Starboy-Rylan, we could be witnessing an attemp to eliminate the possibility of a Leon/Joe/Matt type of winner. If Kye is excluded too, this would further reinforce this attempt. For the time being I am staying away from the boys. Maybe a combo bet between boys and groups as the first to be eliminated? PS Rylan might not be the best singer in the world but he is not as bad as we were made to think, so I had just a little of him at a little over 1:100 (with an eye on a future lay).

GMD3 – Are they really that good? Will producers be that interested in them given this and 1D/LM? Maybe MK1(-1+1) are worth watching, they do offer something different in terms of groups.

Lucy – I would be shocked if she doesn’t make the lives and if her price does not drop. I guess she will be the marmite act producing fan splits of a Janet/Cher/Danyl/Diana type. So maybe she will come 4th-5th!!!

Christopher – Johnny Robinson +

Melanie Masson – Who will be the chosen over they will try to push in the final? I used to think it was Kye, but if he is indeed not through will it be Melanie? or Carolynne? aghhh. I would think more Melanie than Carolynne.

Amy – I would love to see her in the lives but I don’t know if she would have the capability/help to reach the top6.

The 3 J’s – James, Jake, Joseph – Generally considered not to have made the lives, but even if, say, James has, I can’t envisage him in the top6. Too much of an Aiden/Joe Cox, with a weaker voice.

Starboy – Not shown yet, but his inclusion in the lives could mean that, in addition to eliminating the Leon/Joe/Matt type from the boys and the joke act from the overs (by including Rylan in the boys), the urban act will not be in the girls for the first time. Maybe this is the move the producers needed to make in order to get that longed-for urban act victory!!

I like your thinking, especially on the boys (casting Jahmene/Nathan/Rylan to avoid yet another archetypal male hearthrob winner, most of whom have crashed and burned post-show). Would also explain the fact that Joseph (who I liked) and Jake supposedly don’t make the lives. After Cher and Misha, and after the show fulfilling the girlband ambition last year, I also think they may want to propel an urban act to success (remember, Simon signed and has had a lot of success with Labrinth). The show is taking a new approach overall this year so it would fit in with this. Also agree with you on Amy and the groups.

Apropos urban, I can just see Lucy doing “I predict a barm cake up in here” on the guitar.

If the plan is indeed to push Starboy, I’m very much looking forward to seeing how they do it. A male urban act is not an obviously easier sell to voters than a female one.

I initially thought that if they don’t put any Leon/Joe/Matt types in the boys, that would be to open things up for Kye. But if Kye doesn’t make it either (which would be quite the slap in the face for Gary, no?), who would it help? GMD3?

INteresting… Sharon’s price has been slashed from 100/1 to 50/1 during the course of this morning. Yes, Boki, for that reason and others I would be surprised if she doesn’t make it to Judge’s Houses at least.

Three bookies have cut her in the last two hours. She is still available with Ladbrokes at 100/1 so I went and had a bet at lunchtime. The 100/1 wont last. Micah and bullygate last year are fresh in the producers mind and they will be looking for less “in ya face” female singers and Sharon looks and sounds cute. Duke is my band and Sharon is my girl for the live finals.

Everything is speculative at the moment. I see thereis money for Lucy Spraggon and a press release to the effect that she has to silence her i tunes profiile or else she would be in the charts with that song about getting drunk. Its all very cute but I cant see her keeping the public entertained with 10 weeks of it, that’s if she gets through. No one out there knows yet who had made the lives. The markets will tweak when the information is out there. YOu can sign all the contracts of confidentiality you want but the info will out- remember Tanby Croft!

Well, yes… I wasn’t tipping Sharon or encouraging anyone to actually put money on her, just comparing her price favourably to that of Duke. Having said that, is putting a fiver on a 100-1 shot in any betting medium any less speculative than putting one hundred pounds on a 5-1 chance? I will admit some of the thinking on this site is smart, notably from Panos and Eurovicious above, and maybe – just perhaps – you/we will be able to exploit an edge that way. As a fairly long-term sports gambler, however, I tend to regard all betting as speculation, and most of the reasoning which informs it as mental noise. It may mean something to the punter, but a win based on a narrative (whether form study or something more involved) is no less the result of blind luck than one resulting from random selection by a dart-chucking monkey, in my opinion.

Which is not at all to impugn the excellent narrative that is delivered on this site every week. Last year’s labyrinthine dissections were as entertaining as the shows themselves, and enhanced my viewing experience tremendously. But the desire to see the wider picture led the contributors to explore every possible angle, resulting in information overload and (I would expect) cognitive dissonance for most armchair punters. The ‘Red and Black’ theory, for example, must be a far sillier example of speculation than having a small bet on an unfancied runner in the early stages of the competition.

Hi KS, you raise some interesting points. I do think you underestimate the potential edge from narrative. For example, on this thread we’ve discussed three 100/1 shots – Sharon Rose, Duke and Rylan Clark. With all due respect to Simon, if forced to choose between the three I’d much rather (along with Panos and eurovicious) be on Rylan. From his screentime and edit and what we know of the show’s need for joke acts and their usual historical trajectories in the lives, it seems plausible to imagine that he might make the lives and then at some point trade low enough on Betfair to lay off for a profit. Whereas there’s just no particular reason, from their audition show edits, to think Duke or Sharon will make the lives (or rather will have made the lives, as judges’ houses have been filmed already).

Which of course is not to say they definitely won’t make it (sod’s law dictates they now will just to make me look silly), or that there is no enjoyment to be had in a speculative long-odds punt.

I do agree that punters are entirely capable of convincing themselves that a win based on blind luck was in fact due to their superior command of narrative. But ultimately, on this whole question of whether or not you can get an edge from narrative, the proof of the pudding is in the eating – in the long run a dart-chucking monkey will average losses around 15-20%, so the question is whether or not you can better that over a statistically significant period..

I forgot about the red or black theory although it proved more accurate than not. There are some sharp people on this site and what is so good about the narrative is not only its entertainment value but also the different vews that are expressed. If we were all on the same hymn sheet witht he same views sofabet would be a boring place. If you get a steer to a good act and they are 100/1 it is FAR less speculative than risking a ton later on. You can spend a fiver on a pint of premium larger these days which lasts a heck of a lot less time than a bet on Duke or Rose. It’s trying to seperate the sheep from the goats in a flock of 90. It can be done and with casreful tweaking and laying of bets it is a money making exercise- which I’m sure is what the Sofabet team do each year. I’m happy covering all the great acts at big odds. Its like a spreadshot. You only need one or two of them to make the finals and it is quids in time. Like last year actually.

I don’t see how it could work, Boki. While there may be relatively few people who know all 12 finalists (and they’re doing a very good job this year of keeping it under wraps), there must be significant numbers of people who know for sure about a particular act or category. A few punters with that kind of knowledge can cause suggestive ripples in the win market, but would quickly cause a “who’s made the lives” market to collapse entirely.

Points definitely taken. The back to lay strategy was not one I had considered, so the argument for Rylan in that context is very strong.

I guess my point was simply that at some point we all have to put the theory aside and actually stake the bet. Would do no good at all to get everything right in your head without at some point risking something physical on your ruminations.

I’m a bit sceptical of that list – very easy for anyone to make things up on Digital Spy. But if it’s right that Ella misses out, I’d be willing to bet that just means she’s going to get the Melanie Amaro treatment!

Interesting to see Duke on that list.
Also intereesting to see “Shelly ?” on there as well. I cannot see her in the betting field but apparantly (acc to DSpy) she wowed eveyone at bootcamp with “Stop” by Sam Brown I listened to it on SOund cloud and it was very, very good.
Anyone know why Shelly isnt in the betting?

What an overload of female voices tonight… I liked Jade Ellis to be honest but her price is already influenced by the DS spoiler I guess. Still no sign of Leanne and Starboy, did anyone notice them in the ‘final audition’ trailer?

According to someone on the DS thread, Carolynne was shown in the trailer. James Arthur is getting the Olly Xtra Factor treatment despite being shown weeks ago. He must have made the live shows and 34.0 each way is a steal with Ladbrokes.

I cannot see James Arthur winning the show. He’s a bit of a one trick pony and will fall seriously short in the different categories. He looks pretty dreadful too. Doesn’t matter what ods he is if he is going to get stuffed. Still feeling ok with Duke for now- they could even creep in on the “over” categories. Why not? X Factor make up the rules as they go along.

Agree on Arthur. I would say he’s no oil painting, but he is – it’s like someone gave Edvard Munch’s “The Scream” a guitar. Re: Duke, that’s very very optimistic and based on no evidence at all – why on earth would they transfer an obscure montaged group into the comparatively strong Overs category? That’s complete fantasy and not a basis for betting.