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This should be a fast-paced game, with offenses at the forefront. This Croatia, led by Panza, are powerful and offensively oriented, they mostly played at a high number of goals against more offensive opponents, even in important games (EC semi-final and final). They want redemption for the slip-up against Portugal, whose style is different from Korea's. Croatia played well below their level in that game, some important players gave poor performances, a black hole in offense in the first half, but still scored 30 goals against a team stronger than Korea.Korea have not played many relevant games, but they have -59 in an even game against Japan in the Asian Championship semi-final, a team who are defensively oriented, and at the start here they were at 68 in a fast game against Brazil, who played at 49 and 32 against Argentina and Chile at the Pan-American championship. Their selector said ahead of the tournament that they are physically not as good as top teams and that they have to rely on their speed and tactics. They can play without pressure here, they can hardly achieve any result in a set play, but I expect them to force a fast center and deeper defense, for which Croatia have a solution with Lucin, Vusic and Martinovic. Overall over is also a good option, but Croatia's team over is better, because with a great defensive performance they can limit Korea, but they should definitely be at 35-40 goals.
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Slovenia are rather unhappy with yesterday's game against Tunisia, selector Klemencic especially. I expect them to have the right approach at the start today, and in that case there should be over 10 by halftime. Another option here is the overall handicap, Mexico should drop in the second half, but the main question is what will Slovenia's approach be when the winners are decided, so I am more inclined to go with the first half. Slovenia's yesterday's game against Tunisia doesn't have much in common with today's game, Tunisia are much better, stronger opponents. Slovenia have no games relevant for this situation, but their team can counter their opponents and with the expected approach in defense, they should score a lot of easy goals here. Mexico are the weakest team at the tournament, and the youngest, with a lot of 17-year-olds. Yesterday they were down by 10 after the first half against Serbia (who are not as good as Slovenia), later their opponents relaxed and they lost only by 11. They struggled to score in the first half, they are a limited team, especially without Bayardo, who was their top scorer at the Pan-American championship (over 6 goals on average). At that tournament, Brazil had 19-9 against Mexico after the first half (22-21 in the end, Bayardo 5 goals), Chile 14-9 (37-20, Bayardo 9). Chile lost to Germany yesterday by 17, Brazil to Korea. Slovenia might not be as good as Germany, but they are still favorites for a medal. The quality difference is huge, this will be a thrashing, and their motivation should be huge at the start.
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Pre-season game at De Treffers. Oss were the most efficient team in the Dutch second division with 4.26 goals per game last season, they were at at least 3+ goals in 31/38 games, 21/38 at 4+ goals, no games under two goals. They made some changes to their roster, but their playing style remained the same, which was evident in all of their pre-season games so far (all five at at least 4 goals).On the other side we have De Treffers who were 4th in the Dutch third division, their average was 3.68 goals (6th in the league). 26/34 were at 3+ goals, 21/34 at 4+, they also made some roster changes, and lost their top scorer Mutzers (17 goals), but acquired some acquisitions and with the same coach at their helm (Oss' former coach), their style shouldn't change much. So far in the pre-season they faced PSV (lost 0-4, PSV between two games against Osijek), a few days ago at home defeated lower division side 3-1. These two teams played a friendly match in January, and De Treffers won 4-1, I expect a lot of goals today as well.
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This game is not very important, both teams are offense-oriented and I expect a lot of goals. Iceland have 28-34 with Denmark and 28-33 with Poland from last year's EC. At 2014 EC, they played 33-29 against Croatia. Norway are more productive than Denmark and Poland and less then then Croatia. They have 34-32 from a irrelevant qualifying game for this competition.

Norway have 35-28 with Poland and 31-31 with Denmark from last year's EC. Both of those teams are tougher than Iceland. At 2015 WC, they have 29-29 with Brazil and 27-32 with Sweden. At the same competition, they have 32-29 with Iceland in group stage, in a game that decided the top spot of the group.

Iceland mostly met tough opponents here. Yesterday's game with Tunisia was tough and important. Noway have 60 and 61 with Germany and Denmark here in much more important games. The only problem might be Hungary in the group (54 goals, 20 in the second half, 37 saves by goal keepers in total). But that was also a more important game. The stake today is spot 11. I don't expect too much motivation but rather an efficient game, which both teams prefer.
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A clash for advancement into the next round, and both teams could advance. In that case, Macedonia would face Croatia/Iceland and then Germany. I expect a battle from the start, and the overall under is also a good option, but I am leaning more toward Macedonia team under. Their defense was not great in the last two games, but If they want to advance, they will have to fight hard here. In a game at a high number of goals their chances will reduce. They are not very powerful offensively, which is confirmed by their numbers. They went over 27 only against Burkina Faso, twice Russia and Netherlands. All other games were at 27 and under, only Tunisia over 25. Brazil can play good defense. They have 29 against Tunisia here, Spain are not relevant for this story, and in other games they have 23 against Russia and 17 to Burkina Faso. At the 2015 WC they had 23 against Japan and Tunisia, 13 Argentina, 26 Russia. Iceland, Slovenia and France are better teams, and Denmark and Norway were for the placement. In key games at the Pan-American games in March they conceded 11 to Chile and 23 to Argentina. Their selector said that the defense has to be at the right level, and in a game this significant, I cannot see Macedonia foing over 25-26 goals.
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Direct clash for the top spot in the group and I expect Spain to start tough. The team that wins the top position will likely avoid France and Germany, and definitely Iceland and Croatia until the semi-final so the motivation should be high. This team is defensively very strong, at the first two competitions under Suarez they conceded over this margin in the first half only against Switzerland (13 and then 10 in the second), Germany, Iceland and France, who are offensively better than Macedonia. Martinez's arrival has not changed things, last year at the EC they conceded 12 to Russia and 15 to Iceland, less in other games, including France. The most relevant game here is the one against Brazil (9), and of the last year's, the 10 against Slovenia and 8 against Poland and Croatia. Macedonia's biggest strength is defense and discipline, which failed against Tunisia, and they cannot look for success that way, especially not against better teams. It is no accident they scored only 21 against Portugal (9 in the 1st half) in the qualifiers, and last year, in more relevant games, in the first halves they scored 7 against Norway, 11 Denmark and Netherlands. Against Tunisia they tried to play 7-on-6 at one point but gave up on it quickly, and even though they will try that here as well, I doubt that will happen at the start. They faced Spain at the 2014 EC, they both had different selectors then, but the styles and key players are the same. The game ended 31-16, 11-8 in the first half, Macedonia later fell apart and the final result is too rough. However, that first half is relevant, because I expect something similar today as well. Macedonia will not score over 11 goals in the first 30 minutes.
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This margin is a consequence of previous results Morocco recorded and the tough game Algeria played with Iceland yesterday. However, I don't find that to be relevant for today. Morocco cannot stand up to Iceland and this won't be as tough as yesterday's game was. Iceland, as a rule, finish these these kind of games at higher numbers because they don't try very hard in defense. They have 36-27 with Argentina and 48-24 with Arabia. At the WC in Russia, they had 47-19 with Venezuela, in last year's EC qualifiers 45-20 with Italy and 45-21 with Bulgaria. Looking at some games with opponents of similar quality but less importance: Croatia 33-29, Denmark 28-34, Poland 38-33, Serbia 34-32...

Morocco were pretty modest in offense so far but I think they're going to score their fair share of goals in the kind of a game I expect. I don't see it as a clash with Croatia, who are not Iceland's level in offense but have kept the defense at a high level until the end. Morocco have 40-21 with Turkey in a preparation game for this and 43-15 last year at the African championship. I see this going closer to 60 goals.
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En extremely high margin but I think this will finish with a 35-goal difference. Burkina Faso lost by 33 to Tunisia, by 28 to Macedonia (three important players scored just three goals). They conceded 50 and 48 to teams weaker than Spain and more importantly, those teams don't often trash their opponents. Spain have the aggressive 5-1 and 4-2 lineups and of they play that, they will score a lost of fastbreak goals.

Spain had a similar game in Russia at WC when they beat Venezuela 47-7. For comparison's sake, Venezuela lost by 39 to Norway, 42 to Germany, by 20 to Iceland who were holding back, at Panamerican by 40 to Brazil. I think they are at a level similar to Burkina.

The fact they're playing two games within 20 hours is also very important here. I see enough potential in this margin even if Spain don't go full throttle all the time, as expected. Their defense and transition is just too much for these opponents. Germany beat Chile by 26 easily in the second, while Iceland beat Arabia by 25 in the second. The difference here is even greater.
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A lot has been said about Arabia and their problems. Even though they lost by 6 to Croatia yesterday and were at -2 with a few minutes left until the end, they didn't impress me much. Croatia had 14-6 mid-first half and then got a bit confused. But when they started doing better, Arabia couldn't keep up.

Iceland were good against Argentina from the start and took an early 7-goal lead. Argentina are, in my opinion, better than Arabia.

Iceland have 13-11 against Greece from qualifiers but they were without some key players back then. There aren't too many relevant games at 2015 EC since Venezuela were the underdogs and the other teams better than Arabia. They have +3 against Korea, +6 with Egypt, +5 with Brazil. I expect at least a 4-5 goal difference by half time. Total over for Iceland is a good option as well.
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The Saudis are pretty weakened, without 3-4 key players and cannot deal with top European teams like that. They no longer have the quality they had at least year's Asian championship. The numbers from that competition do not go in favor of this tip but the competition was weaker there and they had those 4 players. It's not wonder they are now looking to play a faster-pace game. They played two close games at some 60 goals with Russia back when they had two very important players are rather good quality. Against Tunisia, they finished at 38-21 in the last game.

Croatia stayed under 30 against Spain and Germany last season, which doesn't have much to do with today's game. At 2015 WC, the most comparable game is the one with Algeria (even though Arabia are worse). We do have to say that this Croatia seem better than back then. They reached EC semis last season.

Handicap at Croatia is also an option here (total handicap and first half) but I am more inclined to go towards full time because of how the game is expected to finish and Arabia potentially falling apart in the second half. Team over seems a bit better than total handicap here even though I expect a double-digit goal difference.
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I think Spain will dominate this game. The downside is the game from 2015 in the U18 competition, but Spain were in the lead by 15 after the first half back then, while Belgium are here without two of their top 3 players. But Spain were not as good back then as they are today, which is probably because they had a different selector. The defeat to Serbia is the only stain on Spain't record since the preparations started, but they reacted to that by thrashing France the next day. Relevant games against inferior opponents: Portugal +33, Poland +25, Sweden +39. For comparison, Belgium lost a friendly to Portugal by 6, defeated Sweden by 10 here and lost to Poland by 22. If we look at stronger opponents, Spain defeated France by 25 and 13, Russia by 13. Belgium lost to France by 16, to Russia by 32, stayed under 50 points. Spain dominated Belgium at that tournament by 78-36. Another good option is the halftime handicap, but the overall handicap is a much better option. Spain are playing all the way, they have won the final quarters by at least 13 points, and they have wide bench and great rotation. Belgium lack the width and if they make rotation in the second half, when they see that they cannot win, that could also be significant.
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This Latvian generation have been dominating with their defense and I doubt they will go over 120 points many times in the championship. At the U18 championship in 2015 they played in Division B, and no one scored 50 and over against them, but they struggled against inferior teams. The two most relevant games are against Slovakia - 41-39 and 45-49. In the preparation for this tournament, they played 5 games, at 120 and 101 against Belarus, against Poland at 118, 106 and 94 points. Belarus later played two games at around 140 against Ukraine, Poland before that against Slovakia two games at around 140 as well (Third at 89 in three quarters). Key players in this team were also at the U20 championship last year, where Latvia had a good performance, and won the 7th position. They went over 120 in two games against France (126), in the play-off against Poland at 124 in regulation time, and 146 against Greece. They were at 105 at the start against Netherlands. Lithuania had some overs before the tournament, rarely over 130, against weaker teams and in games that were not really important, and that is not a downside to this bet. At the U18 in 2015 they had some realistic downsides (150 against Italy, 140 Hungary), but they have shown that they can play good defense. In the preparation for the championship, Lithuania and Latvia played two games at 112 and 129 points.This is game is much more important, Italy are the favorites and the defeated team will probably have to try and get them off the bottom against the hosts. Opening of the tournament, potentially added nervousness and I think this will be a tough game.
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Overall under is also good here, but since it is likely that the winners will be decided early, we will go with the first half under. This Greek team are defensively powerful, but can struggle in offense, and are unable to easily score over 40 in the first half. In the preparation they went over 60 in the first half only against Britain (31-34), mostly because of weak defense, and Britain scored only 17 more points in the second half. That Britain are stronger than Iceland. At the 2015 U18, Greece haven't had a first half over 60 points, and they never scored over 32. There is also a head-to-head against Iceland (31-22, end 63-43). In comparison to that game, Greece are stronger and Iceland weaker. Fasoula brings Greece offensive quality, and a lot in defense. Iceland's Halfdanardottir and Davidsdottir, who are not here, scored almost 20 per game combined at that championship (Iceland's average at 56), the rest of the team is pretty much the same (no on over 7 pts per game). Even with the two of them they struggled in defense against stronger teams, and I don't think they can handle Greek defense and their team under in halftime is also not a bad choice. However, since they have not conceded a lot at that championship (none over 63, Denmark 55, Romania 63), in combination with their head-to-head and Greece's offensive problems, the overall halftime under is the best option for me.
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This is the final of this tournament but we should always be cautious when going with unders in test games. However, there are just too many arguments here that I cannot ignore. Germany won spot 3 at last year's EC and put up a great fight against France, who went on to win the title. The defense is a powerful segment on this team. They conceded over 22 only to France and Croatia at that championship. Those teams met in the final (40-38). They conceded over 28 only to one other team - Island in a test game.

Denmark won spot 5 last year and too advatnage of France holding back in the last round of the group stage. They got very close to the semis. When it comes to relevant games, they have 25 and 28 against tougher Spain (the 28 was from the game for spot 5 - 11-9 in the first half).

What is really important here, Germany and Denmark played 3 games in this generation. One at the EYOF start in 2015. 25-21 in two test games 24-21 (July 2016) and 32-22 (December 2016). Denmark never went over 22 and their last two test games were quite similar to this one (tournament final in December).

Germany made some changes but the results of their test games this season (dominated through defense) and what their coach said suggests nothing has changed. They conceded 26 to Israel here ina game that fell apart (9 in the first half), 23 to Japan. Denmark went over both against faster-paced and weaker teams but this will be something completely different.
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Not even when complete can the Swiss stand up to France. They won't play the WC in Algeria, which basically marks the end of this generation and is therefore not surprising their top team is not here. They have a lot of young players on the list. That team finished 14 at the championship in Croatia last year. They lost to France there 42-26 (21-11).

This Swiss generation has a meeting with France in Round of 16 at 2015 WC which France won 29-24 (18-10 at HT). Last year in group stage at EC, in a game that was not important, France won 33-23 (16-7).

France have brilliant offense and are able to score 35-40 goals against anyone. Rare teams were able to limit them to 30 or less and I doubt this Swiss team is able to do that either. Handicap is a good option as well, just like total first half even though there is a chance France will be a bit more relaxed in defense. However, team over should not be questionable.
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The first of the three H2H set to take place in Poland. These two teams have no meetings in the last few years. For comparisons sake, we'll say that Poland won spot 14 at the 2015 U18 Division A championship (there were 16 teams competing) while Slovakia won spot one (7-1) in Division B. The teams are basically identical compared to that competition but Poland are without second best scorer Budkiewicz, while Slovakia have no such problem.

It's important to note that this same Slovakia played U20 Division A championship last season and won spot 15. That is why they are in Division B this year. Still, Slovakia left a better impression than their final result suggests. They had 2-1 in the preliminary stage and won spot 2. The format was such that all 16 teams went into Round of 16 and the defeat in that game set their faith.

Poland finished in 8 but only 4 players from this team were there. Poland beat Bosnia who were better than Slovakia later on, lost to Latvia by 5 but if we keep on comparing, Poland beat Germany by 16 in the group (Slovakia by 15) and lost to Russia by 13 in Round of 16 (Slovakia by 16 in the group). Later on, they lost to Belgium by 35 and Slovakia beat Belgium by 12 at the start.

Poland should be weaker than last season while Slovakia remain pretty much the same. Poland already played 3 test games with powerful Czechs (6th at 2015 U18 A Division EC), lost the first two and won the third one easily. The third one was played behind closed doors and we don't know which Czech players were there. This is the start of the preparation period of Slovakia which demands caution but they confirmed to be a very tough team at previous competitions. I don't expect a lot of points and I don't think we'll see any trashing today. I would not even be surprised by Slovakia winning. That's also a good option for a smaller stake.
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Iceland have been known to struggle and slip up as favorites in the past, but they are better than Ukraine and I think they will not miss this chance. They have been consistent in their official home games. They are undefeated in the last five home games, and their squad has been rejuvenated. In the qualifications for the previous EC they beat Serbia and Montenegro, and much stronger Portugal 26-23. In this round of qualifiers they recorded minimal wins over Czech Republic and Macedonia, who are also better than Ukraine. After a poor performance on Wednesday, there were a lot of statements that they want redemption, I expect them to go strong from the start and their quality should come to the fore. This Ukrainian team has several quality individuals, but they are far from the Icelanders who are playing in world's strongest leagues. They lost at Macedonia by 6 and Czech Republic by 7, on Thursday they were dominated by Macedonia, but still managed to win a point. If we look at some of their earlier, relevant away games - they lost by 4 to Hungary, when the Hungarians had no imperative, and every goal mattered for Ukraine, then lost by 10 to Portugal, while their earlier clashes were with much different teams, before Andronov took over and some important players retired.
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Turda made up for the 8-goal deficit in the first round but Sporting are not Valur and I don't expect any kind of drama here. On the contrary, I think Portugal cannot win here. In any case, we have a meeting between two offense-oriented teams. The game could easily be settled earlier and last week, when the goal difference was important, they played at 65. Turda stayed under 55 only with tougher teams like Timisoara (three times), CSM, Satu mare, Focsani, Fagaras. The last three of those are the worst teams in the league. Sporting stayed under 55 in only 4 out of 21 away games. The only problem is the 52 with Braga. They are a team that is in the race for the Portuguese championship but they were always in over (the only exception was against tougher Aquas). This should finish with at least 57-58 goals. I wouldn't be surprised if it went over 60 again.
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The situation at the league table affected the odds and margins greatly, and they are not realistic, in my opinion. In normal circumstances the margin would be higher by 3-4 goals, which corresponds to the realistic power balance. The important thing here is that Ademar set a goal to break the club record in the number of points won in one season and they will want to win both remaining games, and the home game and support from the fans will be additional motivation today. Ademar lost only to Granollers, Kolding and Barcelona at home this season, none of which are relevant for this game. Against teams outside the Top 5 their results are: Bidasoa 28-26 in September, Genil 32-25, Huesca (28-24 (had 27-15 lead), Guadalajara 28-22. Encantada 32-20, Valladolid 30-24, Aranda 33-26, Adelma 28-22, Sagunto 28-25, Benidorm 33-22. A lot of the mentioned teams are much stronger than Morazo. Morrazo have not been competitive away against the stronger teams. Logrono 25-34, Anaitasuna 22-33, Granollers 21-31, Barcelona 17-37. Their first head-to-head at Morrazo finished 34-23 in Ademar's favor, 19-11 at halftime. Morrazo cannot compete with them here, especially with their soft playing style against one of the best defense in the league. They can only hope that Ademar will play fair in the last game against their direct rivals Aranda, which the team from Leon announced as their goal, and then it would be enough for Morrazo to win at home against Bidas in the final round. *-3.5 is for 5/10, over that a safe bet.
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Valladolid are one of the toughest trips in the league. They are 11-0-2 here and have wins over Anaitasuna, Granollers, Logrono. The only slip was at the start of the season against Genil, when they had a +5 lead in the second half. I don't expect Ademar to have it easy here but I do expect the best defense in the league to live up to that status and I don't see either team going over 30 here.

Looking at home games, only the top three teams conceded less goals than Valladolid. They allow the opponents 25,8 home, which was boosted by Barcelona with their 38 goals. They are the only team that went over 30. Still, Valladolid didn't try in that game, knowing that they cannot get points. The 28 against Anaitasuna, 21 against Granollers, 26 against Logrono are much more relevant. They often scored 30 but struggled against tougher teams ((Huesca 28, Adelma 27, Bidasoa 30) like Ademar. The team from Leon has the best defense in the league.

Ademar didn't concede over 28 the entire season, including two games against Barcelona. They conceded over 30 only to Granollers in Cup semis. That is their worst game of the season. The first h2h finished at 30-24, with the modest 9 saves by Valladolid's goal keeper. Ademar are 28-23 with weaker Adelma, 20-20 with Sagunta, 26-23 with Benidorm, 22-23 with Huesca. The only problem is 31-28 with Bidasoa with 21-16 in the second half, which I consider to be an exception.
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