Net overseas migration has plunged to an estimated 240,000 in the year just ended. So far in 2010, net permanent and long-term arrivals (a broadly similar measure) has fallen by almost a third: from 169,000 to 116,000.

Economic consultants BIS Shrapnel predict this trend will continue. In May, they forecast net overseas migration of just 175,000 this year, and 145,000 in 2011-12.

They might be right, might be wrong. But if they’re anywhere near right, the Coalition’s policy is simply to promise what’s already happening.

[…]

The door is already closing. How narrow do we want to make it?

Australian education is a big export industry: putting limits on student numbers would be ridiculous. So would denying Australians the right to bring in their partners, or closing Australia to Kiwis.

To cut skilled worker migration would hurt industry. To cut our small refugee intake would be heartless. Demographer Peter McDonald warns that we are blaming migrants for our failure to plan cities properly. I couldn’t agree more.