I think we've all been concentrating on the traditional agencies and missed out on China which is becoming more interesting although in a relatively slow way.

That said, recent tit bits indicate that China has a thorough program of space development going on with 2 successful manned launches, modules left in space for short periods to do who knows what, future space station identified, and moon missions.

I think the giant is slowly awakening in another sphere of world interest and worth keeping an eye on even if the info' is a bit sketchy.

While Chinese space officials have said the Shenzhou 6 mission cost about $110 million – relatively cheap when compared to other national space programs – Lewis said it’s possible the flight cost up to three times that based on past understatements of the nation’s spaceflight costs.

However, China does spend about one-half of 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on its space program, and since the nation’s GDP has risen 30 percent since 2002 due to a booming economy, more funding is expected

“They will have a lot more money and are willing to spend it,” Lewis said. “It’s going to be a well-funded program.”

I only hope IF something goes wrong some day with many chinese watching.. they will not scale down or ignore space for a long time..

No I'm sure they won't do that. I think that the Chinese have a long term plan tied to National Pride, technological innovation and change. The Chinese can't afford to wait for developments in other counties on space flight. With their population growing the way it is, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Chinese with the first off-Earth colony. I'd reckon on the Moon first to exploit its resources. No rush to head to Mars for them. They're patient if nothing else.

Could China be making a serious error of judgement here. Looks like they're thinking of creating an equivalent of NASA. Better to let sleeping dogs lie and follow there current disaggregated system. Strange to think this of China but there current structure seems to favour competition whereas putting all the control in one basket will only create a single relatively immovable object.

next 6 months - 24 months
Chinese have plans to send a craft as a Moon orbiter

next 36 months - 5 years
Chinese sends a robotic lander to study Lunar rocks like MERs do on Mars

next 8-9 years ( 2015 ? )
Chinese lands people on the Moon to build a Moon-base
China grabs the Moon's resources 4 years before Americans can return to the Moon and 'celebrate' the Apollo11 anniversary

The US of A has certainly managed to get itself sidetracked over the past 30 odd years and during that time the Chinese have become a major economic powerhouse. At the moment my state (ie. Western Australia) is 'suffering' a boom period directly related to the Chinese appetite for base minerals and energy (ie. offshore gas) with analysts expecting at least 2 - 5 more years of it. China has a huge and growing population with a corresponding demand hence they will be looking at all options (even if considered in the sci-fi realm) regarding meeting that demand now and in the future.

Could China be making a serious error of judgement here. Looks like they're thinking of creating an equivalent of NASA.

It is still a Communist state after all. One thing I do see going for China is the lack of a Cold War style competition (some might disagree) as well as the tight limited resources being allocated to the space program. This means that they are likely to keep things simple and conservative. The downside would be relatively slow pace for the entire program.

First off, I applaud China by having a tangible reason to go to the moon. If you look at why the US is going back to the moon and to mars; there's not a good explanation other than "to go" or "to explore". China has specifically referred to going to the moon to mine/develop He3 technology...

However, part of me questions the ability for China to ever take the lead since most of their technology is existing technology. Until they get into space related R&D (which means a LOT more money) they won't ever take the lead. They will be subject to waiting until someone else does it, then come in and do it better...

However, part of me questions the ability for China to ever take the lead since most of their technology is existing technology. Until they get into space related R&D (which means a LOT more money) they won't ever take the lead. They will be subject to waiting until someone else does it, then come in and do it better...

Hmm. They may be copying at the moment, but they are not stupid (I believe its been shown that asian/orientals genetically have a slightly higher intelligence than caucasion). Look at the Japanese car manufacturers - copied for a while, now make the best most reliable cars. I think they will catch up and surpass US/Europe fairly quickly - they need to - and that's always a good driver.

Also costs are very cheap in China, although rising, so they will be able to do more things with less cash that others.

(I believe its been shown that asian/orientals genetically have a slightly higher intelligence than caucasion).

Ooooh, that sounds very un-pc. My Asian wife of 15 years is not smarter than I am, but she does work WAY WAY harder than I do. Another stereotype (well deserved IMO) is practicality and frugality. The Chinese would not be in space unless they thought there was money to be made. But another characteristic I have observed is, if you have the wealth, flaunt it! I think the Chinese space program is their way of saying that they have arrived. It is the old national prestige thing.

lol... I agree! First off, oriental is a style, not an ethnicity. Secondly, car "quality" is subjective and is not a good measure of a genetic tendancy! My experience with the Asian education system is that there is more of a focus on memorization/quality/quantity and not understanding/developing/asking why; but I would be naive to assume that it is genetic and not cultural.

Getting back to something more tangible... someone earlier made a comment about the cost associated with space travel. I merely pointed out that not only is space travel expensive, for someone to take the lead, they will also have to take on the costs associated with R&D, which is significantly more expensive!

Their labor is cheap for mass production; but their technology R&D is quite expensive and their resources are limited.

When getting into one off development, costs will increase exponentially. However, since they have a reason to go beyond "exploration" such as He3 technology, it may justify the expense. If they were exploring with more of the US mindset of "going to go"... I doubt if they could afford it given their current economic structure.

Current economic structure although changing is one of, if not the strongest in the world with GNP around $US1.8 trillion. The Chinese are running large surpluses against all major countries and most minor ones at the moment on the back of cheap electrical goods, cars, clothing, building products, just about anything you like to name.

The point here is that although they may be undergoing considerable change in their economy, they most certainly have the funds to do it.

One other item is that they also have coming along, a lot of young men with no chance of getting a wife due to their ongoing one child policy and their cultural preference for male children. Something like 60 million women haven't been born that would have without that policy.

There's going to be a lot of men with plenty of time on their hands due to a lack of domestic issues in their lives. Their energies will have to be directed somewhere so a good war is one alternative however a preferable one would be R&D and space that is one area that can use lots of resources.