Peter O’Neil: Top parties in three-horse race, poll finds

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OTTAWA — A surprising national poll released Thursday is boosting speculation within — if not yet outside — New Democratic Party circles that the NDP has a legitimate shot at forming government after the October election.

The Ekos poll of 2,177 Canadians from May 6-12, using interactive voice response technology, had the main parties in a tight three-way battle.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were at 30 per cent, the NDP at 29 per cent, and the Liberals at 27 per cent, with the Green party in fourth with eight per cent, according to a survey which is, according to Ekos, accurate to within 2.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The NDP was up five points over the previous week, suggesting that the historic Alberta election result put wind in the party’s sails.

“But it would be a mistake to see the NDP’s rise as merely a bounce effect from Alberta,” Ekos pollster Frank Graves said in his analysis.

“In fact, the past four months have shown a clear pattern of growing support for the New Democrats, lifting them up from 18 points in early February to 29 points today.”

The poll’s regional breakdown for B.C. had the NDP at 31 per cent, the Tories at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent, and the Greens at 10 per cent

Graves added a caveat for New Democrat stalwarts hoping for their first invitation to a 24 Sussex Drive garden party.

“The critical question is whether these shifts represent a new normal or just ephemeral byproduct of the Alberta election.”

A B.C. survey by Insights West released earlier this week also suggested the NDP is on the rise. It found that 35 per cent of decided voters were favouring the NDP, versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives, 25 per cent for the Liberals, and 10 per cent for the Greens.

The poll, done May 7-9, involved 814 respondents and has an error margin of 3.1 points, according to pollster Mario Canseco.

The poll had the NDP up slightly from the party’s 32.5-per-cent showing in the 2011 election, while the Conservatives were down sharply from the 46-per-cent result.

That has raised questions about potential NDP gains at the Conservatives’ expense in the autumn election.

If the 2011 election results are transposed onto the new 42-seat B.C. electoral map, the NDP got the most votes in 11 ridings and came second — almost always to Conservatives ­— in another 24.

While the gap between first and second was huge in most instances, in others the gap was within 15 percentage points: Courtenay-Alberni, North Island-Powell River, Vancouver Centre (won by Liberal Hedy Fry), South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Burnaby-North Seymour, Kootenay-Columbia, and Fleetwood-Port Kells.

University of B.C. political scientist Richard Johnston said the NDP’s momentum is based not just on an Alberta carry-over, but also on some key issues.

NDP leader Tom Mulcair “has been the only real critic of the government,” he said.

If anti-Harper Canadians start viewing the NDP — rather than the Liberals — as the best vehicle to defeat Tories, that could be disastrous news for Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Johnston said.

“The Liberals are a house of cards, and I have been saying so since 2011.”

University of Victoria professor emeritus Norman Ruff concurred.

“This picture undermines the grooming of Trudeau as the ‘Dauphin’ and will put still more bravado in Mulcair’s step as it blows away any notion that the 2011 NDP breakthrough was only a one-off,” he said.

But Johnston doesn’t share Sandhu’s optimism about the possibility Mulcair might be Canada’s next prime minister, due largely to the divided anti-Tory opposition in seat-rich Ontario.

Despite its national gains, the NDP remained third in Ontario, at 27 per cent, compared to the Conservatives at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 31 per cent, and the Greens at eight per cent, according to Ekos.

“I don’t see it happening, not in 2015,” Johnston said, predicting that a Liberal-NDP split of the anti-Conservative vote in Ontario will help Harper get the most seats when all the votes are counted.

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Peter O’Neil: Top parties in three-horse race, poll finds

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