Tropical Storm HENRI

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED HENRI
RECENTLY...AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB AND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 KT. THE MAXIMUM WIND WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HENRI IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
WEAKENS TO THE EAST...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 050/13. ADDITIONAL SLOWING SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI.
HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME NOW THAT THE
CENTER HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING HENRI UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS
EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE MODEL-DIAGNOSED SHEAR OF 25 KT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND
THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 30.3N 79.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 31.3N 77.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.5N 75.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.6N 73.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.3N 71.9W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0000Z 35.2N 68.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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