After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Pirates’ position-playing cohort recorded the fourth-worst collective WAR mark in the majors this past season. The most immediate source of their troubles was evident. In last year’s version of these same projections, Jung Ho Kang and Starling Marte were forecast for nearly six wins between them. Due to a variety of indiscretions, they were limited to just 339 plate appearances and 1.2 wins, all of them Marte’s.

While Kang remains absent from the club indefinitely, a full season of Marte (504 PA, 2.6 zWAR) ought to address some of the pains endured by the 2017 edition of the team. With the exception of third base, ZiPS calls for the Pirates to extract two or three wins from every position. That points to the possibility of an average group of hitters. It also indicates there’s little margin for error here.

In light of the that, it’s not surprising to hear — as Buster Olney reported before dawn this morning — that the club might be searching for ways to trade Andrew McCutchen (630, 3.4). Whatever the return, his departure would almost certainly render the team less competitive in 2018.

Pitchers
The pitching staff represented the club’s stronger unit in 2017. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, it’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion that they’ll carry that distinction into 2018. Gerrit Cole (189.1 IP, 3.4 zWAR), Ivan Nova (149.2, 2.2), and Jameson Taillon (145.2, 2.7) are all projected to surpass the two-win threshold. After that triumvirate, though, the top forecast for a probable member of the Opening Day rotation belongs to Trevor Williams (133.2, 1.0). The prognosis for Chad Kuhl (147.1, 0.8), who recorded 31 starts for the Pirates this past season, is similarly dim.

Like the rotation, the bullpen features a notable divide between its stronger and weaker members. Felipe Rivero (73.1 IP, 66 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) emerged as one of the top relievers of 2017, one of only 12 to record two or more wins. The forecast here calls for him to nearly match that figure in 2018. After Rivero, however, there appear to be few options fit for high-leverage innings. Indeed, only George Kontos (60.2, 87, 0.7) receives an ERA projection more than 10% better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
The departure of Andrew McCutchen would almost certainly be followed closely by the promotion of Austin Meadows (401 PA, 1.8 zWAR) to the majors. Despite a lackluster performance at Triple-A Indianapolis, Meadows is still forecast to produce wins at a distinctly above-average rate. Like Meadows, Kevin Newman (525, 1.3) has yet to appear in a major-league game but also appears capable of handling some kind of major-league job. Adam Frazier (472, 1.3), meanwhile, profiles as a strong bench option.

Sources close to the author — specifically Travis Sawchik, who’s sitting across the room here at FanGraphs’ Winter Meetings headquarters — are skeptical about Tyler Glasnow’s (149.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) immediate prospects for major-league success. Indeed, by the runs-allowed version of pitching WAR, Glasnow was worth roughly negative-two wins in 2017. ZiPS, though — presumably due to his impressive minor-league performance — calls for Glasnow to produce the fourth-highest WAR among all the club’s pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Seems like a harsh wRC+ projection for Marte, following a suspension shortened down year. Is the projection system just generally more pessimistic on low BB% guys?

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11 months ago

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dl80

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It depends on how you view his true talent BABIP. The .380 from 2016 seems completely unsustainable. He’s projected to have a pretty similar year to 2015, where he had a more realistic .337 BABIP.

It seems like ZIPS is perhaps dinging him a bit too much on a power dropoff, perhaps because of the presumed end to PEDs usage or just because the doubles power was really sapped last year after he came back.