Warning: The data below by block are distorted in
a few cases by
counting only one side of the street on the boundary. For example, the
data for the 4700 and 4800 blocks of Forest Hill Ave. count only the data
from the north side of the street.

Here are the offense
report counts for the
Forest Hill Neighborhood for 1/1/00 through 12/31/13, duplicate reports
deleted, sorted with the most numerous first.
I have highlighted the drug, violent, and weapons offenses for emphasis.

Offense Description

Count

%

THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE

454

27.7%

DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY

216

13.2%

ALL OTHER LARCENY

118

7.2%

HIT AND RUN

99

6.0%

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

76

4.6%

BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL

74

4.5%

THEFT FROM BUILDING

56

3.4%

SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON

49

3.0%

NATURAL DEATH

38

2.3%

BURGLARY/B&E/OUTBUILDING

35

2.1%

CITY CODE VIOLATIONS

34

2.1%

THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES

31

1.9%

SIMPLE ASSAULT

24

1.5%

BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL

21

1.3%

SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC

18

1.1%

ALL OTHER OFFENSES

17

DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION

17

DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY

16

FRAUD, CREDIT CARD

15

ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL

14

LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY

12

TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY

12

FOUND PROPERTY

12

OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL

11

COURT DOCUMENTS

10

MISSING PERSON

9

INDECENT EXPOSURE

8

FORGERY BY CHECK

8

ANNOYING PHONE CALLS

8

DRUNKENNESS

7

IMPERSONATION

7

TAMPERING WITH AUTO

6

THEFT OF MOPED/OTHER VEHICLE TYPE

5

FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME

5

SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING

5

SUICIDE

4

FORGERY/COUNTERFEITING/ALL OTHER

4

AGGRAVATED ASSAULT

4

FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD

3

THREATEN BODILY HARM

3

UNINTENTIONAL DEATH

3

SHOPLIFTING

3

LIQUOR LAW VIOLATIONS

3

YOUTH AND FAMILY CRIMES INQUIRY

3

DUI, ALCOHOL

3

RUNAWAY

3

WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS

3

FRAUD, ATM

2

POSSESSION OF BURGLARY TOOLS

2

THROW MISSILE AT OCCUPIED DWELLING

2

DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE/GRAFFITI

2

CRUELTY TO ANIMALS

2

UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE

2

SEXUAL BATTERY

2

STALKING

2

KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION

2

DEATH BY DROWNING

2

EMBEZZLEMENT

2

WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON

2

RECOVERED VEHICLE-STOLEN OTHER JURIS.

2

ROBBERY/CARJACKING

1

BOMB THREAT

1

SEARCH WARRANT - DRUGS

1

BURGLARY

1

LOST / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY

1

OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE

1

THROW MISSILE AT OCCUPIED VEHICLE

1

PICKPOCKET

1

WARRANT SERVED FROM OTHER JURISDICTION

1

AGGRAVATED SEXUAL BATTERY

1

AGGR ASSAULT ATTEMPTED MURDER

1

PROMISCUOUS SHOOTING

1

FALSE INFORMATION TO POLICE

1

SUDDEN DEATH

1

ACCIDENTAL DEATH

1

PURSE SNATCHING

1

FORCIBLE RAPE

1

SUSPICIOUS PACKAGE

1

SEXUAL ASSAULT WITH AN OBJECT

1

ARSON

1

FRAUD/FORGERY INCIDENT

1

DEATH INVESTIGATION (MATTER PENDING)

1

WIRE FRAUD

1

ROBBERY/ATM

1

ROBBERY/BANK

1

NON-REPORTABLE OFFENSES

1

Grand Total

1638

You might notice the paucity of promiscuous shooting reports
(only one in fourteen years).
If you live near the park, you know there's been a fair amount of gunfire,
especially before they installed the gates, and we know one neighbor who has
called multiple times. Sigh. I don't know about you but this
inserts in me the worm of worry about the accuracy of the data.

The Good News here is that the most numerous offenses are
nonviolent. Property crimes dominate the list, as
one might expect for a residential area. In fact, counting down the
list, 73.7% of the reports are in property crime categories reported more frequently than the
most frequent violent offense, simple assault. Plus whatever part of
the 2.1% City Code violations relate to property.

The Bad News is that our most common crime is almost
completely preventable.

*** Rant Begins ***

By far the most common offense (29% in this time frame)
is "Theft from Motor Vehicle." That crime (and much of the
property destruction that reflects broken car
windows) would entirely disappear if we
(and the people who visit in our neighborhood, see below) would lock our stuff in the trunk or take it into the house. Indeed, our bad
habits in this respect have the unfortunate effect of chumming the
neighborhood to attract criminals.

This is a particularly clear demonstration of the general
proposition (one you will see stated elsewhere in these pages) that "they"
(being the cops, the City, the federal government, the
schools, or anybody else you choose to blame) are not responsible for
solving our crime problem; we are the front line.

*** Rant Ends ***

Aside from the low rate of violent crime
in our neighborhood,
the Very Good News is that the crime rate is decreasing:

The blue line is the raw count of offense
reports by
year. The
yellow line is the computer's linear fit
to those data. There's no particular reason to expect the numbers to
lie on a straight line. Nonetheless,
the R2 value tells us that the time variable
explains over 72% of the variance in the number of reports.
To the extent the line gives a decent measure of the trend, it shows a decrease of
about 8.8
offense reports per year (i.e., 5.6% of the initial count per year).

We could speculate that the bump in 2010
reflects the recent recession and, perhaps, the considerable post-recession
use of the Park.

As you see, much of the decrease has been driven by a
decrease in thefts from motor vehicles. See
below for one reason for the
decrease in thefts from vehicles after 2006-07.

Turning to location, here are the blocks
with the most offense reports:

Some of the entries (notably the
convenience store, liquor store, and grocery) suggest that the officers don't pay
any undue attention to the
location code.

Both of the drug reports are in "parking lot/garage."
Likewise 25 of the 45 private property destruction reports are from the parking lot,
with another 16 on the street.

This very high rate in a residential neighborhood, where one
side of the street is trees, suggests that the lowlives who are chummed into
the neighborhood by the stuff left in cars are causing other problems.

The data comport with our experience: The
nexus of the problem in this block is the
42d St. parking lot of James River Park.

We have Good News here: The
new gates (when
they are closed) largely eliminate the
nighttime disorder in the park. Most of the car breakins have been in the lower lot, presumably because the area is harder
to see from the road. In 2006, Ralph White and his folks blocked off
most of the parking spaces there and Parks began closing the gates on
weekdays.

j

The results were helpful.

This led to a new normal of about 4 car
breakins per
year, vs. the earlier normal of four times that.

A comparison of the top blocks for 2005
with those for 2013 emphasizes the improvement.

Block

2005

2013

4200 Block RIVERSIDE DR

36

6

4100 Block RIVERSIDE DR

11

3

4400 Block Forest Hill Ave

7

4

1400 Block Cedar Lane

4

1

1500 Block W 45th St

3

1

2000 Block Westover Hills Blvd

3

3

4000 Block RIVERSIDE DR

3

5

4300 Block Smithdeal Ave

3

0

4700 Block FOREST HILL AVE

3

3

Grand Total

113

59

If we take out the three thefts from motor
vehicle in the 4200 block in 2013, it still leaves us tied with the 4400
block of Forest Hill. I think it is past time to start warning our
visitors about the danger to stuff left in their cars.

Second:4400
block of Forest Hill Ave. (6% of the reports). Note that the
data here cover only the church and commercial properties on the north side
of the street.

The numbers in 4400 Forest Hill show a different
pattern

Offense Description

Count

%

NATURAL DEATH

27

25.0%

SIMPLE ASSAULT

10

9.3%

THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE

9

8.3%

SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON

6

5.6%

ALL OTHER LARCENY

5

4.6%

THEFT FROM BUILDING

4

3.7%

DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY

4

3.7%

HIT AND RUN

4

3.7%

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

4

3.7%

ANNOYING PHONE CALLS

3

2.8%

YOUTH AND FAMILY CRIMES INQUIRY

3

2.8%

MISSING PERSON

3

2.8%

ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL

2

1.9%

OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL

2

1.9%

UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE

2

1.9%

LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY

2

1.9%

SEXUAL BATTERY

2

1.9%

BOMB THREAT

1

EMBEZZLEMENT

1

TAMPERING WITH AUTO

1

BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL

1

UNINTENTIONAL DEATH

1

KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION

1

AGGRAVATED ASSAULT

1

AGGRAVATED SEXUAL BATTERY

1

DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION

1

FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME

1

ACCIDENTAL DEATH

1

FOUND PROPERTY

1

WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON

1

SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC

1

SUDDEN DEATH

1

BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL

1

Grand Total

108

Past looks at
this block showed that most of the reports came
from
the nursing home
at 4403.

In the past, the database showed the actual address of each
report except where there was a reason, e.g., sex crime, to just
report the block. In those cases, the addresses showed
with the last two digits as XX, e.g., 44XX. They now
report all the addresses with the last two digits as XX.
They have not articulated any reason for concealing this
information from the public. Sigh!

We can expect that the
major problem in this block continues to be the nursing home but the current
data cannot show that.

Indeed, there are only four structures on
the north side of this block: the church, one medical office, one former
medical office, and the
nursing home. We just don't see many assaults, kidnappings, or sexual
batteries in churches or medical offices. So even without
the old data we could infer that the nursing home is the problem in this
block.

The natural deaths among
the patients at the nursing home probably are not a problem for the neighborhood.
Some of the other, rough, stuff should be a concern. Indeed, if the
natural deaths were not counted, this block would drop only one place, still
ahead of the commercial block at 4700 Forest Hill.

Ordinarily, one would expect the center of
disorder to be the commercial district. In our neighborhood, the
anomalies of the Park and the nursing home push the highest block in the
commercial district down to fourth.

Again, the commercial district.
Again only the north side of the street.

Offense Description

Count

%

DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY

7

15.6%

SIMPLE ASSAULT

5

11.1%

THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE

4

8.9%

ALL OTHER LARCENY

4

8.9%

HIT AND RUN

4

8.9%

OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL

3

6.7%

SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC

2

4.4%

THEFT FROM BUILDING

2

4.4%

BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL

2

4.4%

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

2

4.4%

SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING

1

THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES

1

DUI, ALCOHOL

1

FOUND PROPERTY

1

SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON

1

ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL

1

FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME

1

EMBEZZLEMENT

1

AGGRAVATED ASSAULT

1

MISSING PERSON

1

Grand Total

45

CONCLUSIONS

See elsewhere for an
analysis of the drug problems near our neighborhood. Of
course, the drug dealing and
other disorder in the nearby apartment
complexes contribute to the property and other crime in our peaceful neighborhood
(and in the
Park). Here
is what a Justice
Department Monograph says on that subject: