Category Archives: 2014 Elections

Governor exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in 2014 – as is always the case. But let’s take a closer look at the RACE demographic. Minority voters share of the total vote is shown, but corresponding vote shares are missing. When estimated vote shares are included, the Democrat is usually the winner.

GOP shares of white voters appear to be inflated. So the results are conservative: The Democrats most likely did better than indicated in the tables.

The Sensitivity analysis tables show the effect of Democratic shares of white voters on the total Democratic share.

Based on True Vote, Cumulative Vote and Voter Turnout models:
IL: Quinn did better than 35% of whites.
FL: Crist did better than 37% of whites and 85% of blacks.
ME: Michaud did better than 43% of whites.
WI: Burke did better than 42% of whites and 90% of blacks.
MI: Schauer did better than 40% of whites and 89% of blacks.
KS: Davis did better than 46% of Latinos

IL

1,263

Pct

Quinn

Rauner

Grimm

Quinn

Rauner

Grimm

White

75%

35%

61%

4%

37%

59%

4%

Black

16%

93%

7%

1%

94%

5%

1%

Latino

6%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Asian

2%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Other

1%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Total

100%

41.1%

46.9%

3.2%

50.0%

46.0%

4.1%

Recorded

45.6%

50.1%

3.3%

FL

2,806

Pct

Crist

Scott

Wyllie

Crist

Scott

Wyllie

White

69%

37%

58%

4%

39%

57%

4%

Black

14%

85%

12%

3%

94%

4%

2%

Latino

13%

58%

38%

3%

58%

38%

4%

Asian

2%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Other

2%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Total

100%

45.0%

46.6%

3.6%

50.8%

45.2%

4.0%

Recorded

47.1%

48.2%

4.8%

ME

1,006

Pct

Michaud

LePage

Cutler

Michaud

LePage

Cutler

White

97%

43%

49%

9%

46%

46%

8%

Black

1%

–

–

–

95%

3%

2%

Latino

2%

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Asian

–

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Other

–

–

–

–

80%

10%

10%

Total

100%

41.7%

47.5%

8.7%

47.2%

44.8%

8.0%

Recorded

43.4%

48.2%

8.4%

WI

2,316

Burke

Walker

Other

Burke

Walker

Other

White

88%

42%

56%

2%

46%

53%

1%

Black

6%

90%

10%

95%

4%

1%

Latino

3%

–

–

80%

19%

1%

Asian

1%

–

–

80%

19%

1%

Other

2%

–

–

80%

19%

1%

Total

100%

42.4%

49.9%

0.9%

51.0%

48.0

1.0%

Recorded

46.6%

52.3%

0.9%

MI

2,232

Schauer

Snyder

Other

Schauer

Snyder

Other

White

79%

40%

59%

1%

41%

58%

1%

Black

14%

89%

9%

2%

95%

3%

2%

Latino

3%

–

–

–

80%

20%

0%

Asian

2%

–

–

–

80%

20%

0%

Other

2%

–

–

–

80%

20%

0%

Total

100%

44.1%

47.9%

51.3%

47.6%

1.0%

Recorded

47.1%

51.0%

1.9%

KS

2,009

Pct

Davis

Brownback

Umbehr

Davis

Brownback

Umbehr

White

88%

46%

51%

3%

46%

51%

3%

Black

3%

–

–

–

93%

4%

3%

Latino

6%

46%

47%

7%

48%

45%

7%

Asian

1%

–

–

–

80%

13%

7%

Other

2%

–

–

–

80%

13%

7%

Total

100%

43.2%

47.7%

3.1%

48.5%

48.1%

3.4%

Recorded

46.2%

50.7%

3.2%

Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of Democratic shares of white voters on total vote.

It is instructive to view the 2014 Senate Exit Polls in North Carolina, Alaska and Colorado. These were close elections won by the Republicans.

In each poll, vote shares for minority voters are missing, although the percentages of the total vote are listed. As usual, the exit polls matched the recorded vote. But when plausible minority vote share estimates are added, the Democrat is the winner.

North Carolina

Tillis (R) was a 48.8-47.3% winner.

Just 95% of the 2783 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote.

Assume that Hagan won 70% of the missing Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.

Hagan wins by 48.1-47.5%.

NC 2014

Exit Poll

2783 respondents

MoE: 2.41%

Pct

Hagan (D)

Tillis (R)

Haugh (I)

Whiite

74%

33%

62%

4%

Black

21%

96%

3%

1%

Hispanic

3%

na

na

na

Asian

1%

na

na

na

Other

1%

na

na

na

Adj.Share

95%

44.6%

46.5%

3.2%

Recorded

100%

47.3%

48.8%

3.7%

True Share

Hagan

Tillis

Haugh

White

74%

33%

62%

4%

Black

21%

96%

3%

1%

Hispanic

3%

70%

20%

10%

Asian

1%

70%

20%

10%

Other

1%

70%

20%

10%

True share

100%

48.1%

47.5%

3.7%

Recorded

100%

47.3%

48.8%

3.7%

Alaska

Sullivan (R) was a 48.8-45.6% winner.

Just 86% of 1,826 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote.

Assume Begich won 94% of missing Blacks and just 50% of Hispanic and Asian voters (conservative).

Begich is a 48.0-46.6% winner.

AK 2014

Exit Poll

1826 respondents

MoE: 2.98%

Race

Begich (D)

Sullivan (R)

Other

White

78%

45%

49%

6%

Black

3%

na

na

na

Hispanic

5%

na

na

na

Asian

6%

na

na

na

Alaskan

8%

57%

38%

5%

Adj.Share

86.0%

39.7%

41.3%

5.1%

Recorded

100%

45.6%

48.8%

3.7%

True Share

Begich (D)

Sullivan (R)

Other

White

78%

45%

49%

6%

Black

3%

94%

4%

2%

Hispanic

5%

50%

47%

3%

Asian

6%

50%

47%

3%

Alaskan

8%

57%

38%

5%

True share

100%

48.0%

46.6%

5.5%

Recorded

100%

45.6%

48.8%

5.6%

Colorado

Garner won the recorded vote by 48.5-46.0%.

A whopping 20% of 994 exit poll respondents vote shares were not included in the poll. Assume that Udall won 95% of the missing Blacks, and 60% of Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.

1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters, 2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters 3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012. Hagan wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Worst case scenario: Hagan has 88% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.

Best case scenario: Hagan has 96% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.

Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.

Clarkson has found that computer-reported results from larger precincts in the state, with more than 500 voters, show a “consistent” statistical increase in votes for the Republican candidates in general elections (and even a similar increase for establishment GOP candidates versus ‘Tea Party’ challengers during Republican primaries). Those results run counter to conventional political wisdom that Democrats perform better in larger, more urban precincts.

II True Vote Model

Obama lost Kansas in 2012 by 252,000 recorded votes (59.7-38.0%).

Base Case Assumptions1) 66% turnout of Obama and Romney voters, 2) Davis had 93% of returning Obama voters 3) Brownback had 78% of Romney voters4) Davis had 50% and Brownback 40% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case Scenario: Davis wins by 1,000 votes: 48.1-48.0%Note: Obama had 42% in the final pre-election poll. If Obama’s True Vote was 41%, then Davis won the True Vote by 50-46%.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Worst case scenario: Davis has 89% of returning Obama and 17% of Romney voters.Davis loses by 40,000 votes with 45.7%.

Best case scenario: Davis has 97% of Obama and 21% of Romney voters.Davis wins by 41,000 votes with 50.5%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

Worst case scenario: 64% of Obama and 68% of Romney voters return in 2014.Davis loses by 15,000 votes with 47.1%.

Best case scenario: 68% of Obama and 64% of Romney voters return in 2014.Davis wins by 17,000 votes with 49.0%.

Three election models indicate that the 2014 Vermont governor election was almost stolen. Shumlin (D) defeated Milne (R) by just 2,000 votes (46.4-45.3%)

Obama won Vermont in 2012 by 95,000 recorded votes (66.1-31.0%).

True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions
1) 55% turnout of Obama and 65% turnout of Romney voters
2) Shumlin had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Milne had 93% of Romney voters
4) Shumlin and Milne each had 40% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Shumlin won by 27,000 votes: 54.3-40.2%In order to match the recorded vote, Milne needed 22.4% of Obama voters.

1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters, 2) Kitzhaber had 87% of returning Obama voters 3) Richardson had 90% of Romney voters4) Kitzhaber had 44% and Richardson 46% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case Assumptions1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters, 2) Michaud had 86% of returning Obama voters 3) Lepage had 87% of Romney voters4) Michaud had 45% and Lepage 39% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case: Michaud won by 51,000 votes: 50.3-41.2%In order to match the recorded vote, Lepage needed 23.7% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Worst case scenario: Michaud has 82% of returning Obama and 2% of Romney voters.Michaud wins by 23,000 votes with 47.7%.

Best case scenario: Michaud has 90% of Obama and 6% of Romney voters.Michaud wins by 88,000 votes with 53.0%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014.Michaud wins by 44,000 votes with 49.4%.

Best case scenario: 77% of Obama and 73% of Romney voters return in 2014.Michaud wins by 67,000 votes with 51.3%.