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EUR/USD continues to find interim support to terminate wave (1) and begin its counter trend rally towards wave (2) as depicted on the 4H chart above. The pair lags behind its counterparts like GBP/USD and USD/JPY which are presumably into their respective wave (3) already. We shall bring those setups sometimes later this week but for now the wait continues to sell the termination of wave (2) here. The wave counts are indicating that a counter trend rally is overdue in EUR/USD, which should terminate between 1.0740 and 1.0800 levels, which are Fibonacci 0.382 and 0.618 resistance levels respectively. At the moment, the pair is testing an intermediate support trend line as seen on the chart above and can expect a corrective bounce here. Please note that momentum remains on the south side and intraday rallies should be sold here. Immediate support is seen at 1.0600 level, while resistance is strong at 1.0906 level respectively. Look lower till the prices remain below 1.0906 levels going forward.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now and look to sell between 1.0740 and 1.0800 levels respectively, stop is at 1.0906 and target 1.0350 and lower.

Gold chart setups:

Technical outlook:

Gold reverses from intraday highs at $1,261 level today. The structure is looking constructive for the bulls for sure but a corrective drop (potential expanded flat) seems to be in the making for now. If we look into the rally from $1,195 level and subsequent moves thereafter, the most likely wave count could be wave (1) and corrective waves A/B respectively. If the above wave count holds to be true, the metal should drop lower towards at least $1,225/20 levels as depicted here and complete the last leg wave C of correction. Please note that $1,225/20 are also good Fibonacci support levels, which can provide necessary bounce to the metal to push through higher levels from there. Please also note that a drop below $1,195 is looking less probable at this moment and hence short positions should be covered around $1,220/25 levels. Immediate swing support is seen at $1,227 levels, while resistance stays at $1,264.00 respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now, with stop at $1,263.50, target $1,225. Then look to go long.

Fundamental outlook:

With the second French Election Debate to begin around 02:30 PM EST, President Donald Trump to host Chinese President tomorrow, the NFP numbers on Friday and more, this week's calendar is full of events to produce required volatility and set the tone for the rest of April series.

EUR/JPY had been in a bearish non-volatile trend since the break below 121.10. Today JPY had negative economic event report of Monetary Base at 20.3 which was expected to be at 23.2% and 10y Bond Auction report at 0.06/4.0 which previously was at 0.08/3.7. Overall the JPY economic reports today was not so impressive but EUR is having Positive Spanish Unemployment Change at -48.6 which was expected at -41.2 and Retail Sales at 0.7% which was expected at 0.5%, that could not push against JPY today. Currently ECB President Draghi is speaking about the short-term interest rates and upcoming changes in the monetary policy of the economy beside the BREXIT effect. A good amount of volatility is expected throughout the speech on every EUR based pairs today. A daily close will disclose further hints on upcoming moves in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has broken below the support of 118.20. If we see a daily close below 118.20, we will be looking for any retest towards 118.20 as resistance and any rejection on the intraday chart tomorrow will signal much lower moves in the future towards 116.25 support. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 118.20 with a daily close, it will negate the bearish bias and we will bullish with a target towards 20 EMA dynamic level resistance.

Currently we are looking for a break above minor resistance seen at 1.5347 as confirmation that wave [iv] has completed with the test of 1.5149 and a new impulsive rally now is unfolding in wave [v] towards at least 1.5570 and likely even closer to 1.5797 as the ideal upside target.

R3: 1.5456

R2: 1.5347

R1: 1.5317

Pivot: 1.5250

S1: 1.5210

S2: 1.5149

S3: 1.5110

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5235 with stop placed at 1.5050. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5310 and use the same stop.

With the break below 118.19 the possible triangle count has been invalidated and instead a complex double zigzag correction now is the preferred count. This count calls for a little more downside into the 116.83 - 116.99 area to complete wave (iv) and setting the stage for a possible new impulsive rally in wave (v) to above 124.09.

In the short term the former support at 118.19 now acts as resistance.

R3: 119.05

R2: 118.50

R1: 118.10

Pivot: 117.85

S1: 117.39

S2: 116.99

S3: 116.83

Trading recommendation:

Our long position from 118.75 was stop at 118.00. We will re-buy EUR at 117.05

GBP/USD is currently inside the corrective structure between 1.2410-1.2550. The BREXIT process seems to be providing a trend in coming days for the pair. Today, GBP Construction PMI report was published where it did not provide any high impact in the market as the expected value 52.5 and actual value of 52.2 was quite nearer to each other. On the other hand, USD has Trade Balance report to be published today which previously was at -48.5B and today expected to be at -46.0B and Factory Orders report which previously was at 1.2% and expected to show a decrease at 1.0%. Currently the pair is going under indecision and counter impulsive movement every day. As the BREXIT process is coming to an end and UK is finally getting out of the EUR, it is expected that GBP to encounter a long-term fall against USD after gaining some short-term strength.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the resistance area of 1.2525-1.2550 and today the price found dynamic support of 20 EMA and horizontal support 1.2410. The price is currently inside the traffic area where previously we have seen the price to correct for a longer period of time, so as long as the price remains below the resistance area we will be bearish bias. If the price breaks above 1.2550 with a daily close then we will be looking forward to buy with an upward target towards 1.2800 resistance.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level 1.2420. According to the 15M time frame, I found that sellers are in control and I expect further downward movement. Strong intraday resistance is seen at the price of 1.2465. The supply trendline is still in place. Watch for selling opportunities. Downward target is set at the price of 1.2375.

USD/JPY is expected to continue the downside movement. The pair is trading below the declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish, calling for a further drop.

To sum up, as long as 111.00 holds on the upside, look for a new drop to 110.25 and even to 110.05 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 110.25. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.05. The pivot point stands at 111.00. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 111.25 and the second one at 111.50.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level 1.2420. According to the 15M time frame, I found that sellers are in control and I expect further downward movement. Strong intraday resistance is seen at the price of 1.2465. The supply trendline is still in place. Watch for selling opportunities. Downward target is set at the price of 1.2375.

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias as the upside movement is supported by a rising trend line. The pair is supported by a bullish trend line since March 31 which confirms a positive outlook. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9990 (the low of March 31). Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Regarding economic data, the US Institute for Supply Management posted its manufacturing PMI at 57.2 for March, lower than 57.5 expected and 57.7 in February. The Commerce Department said construction spending grew 0.8% on month in February (vs. +1.0% expected, -0.4% in January).

Hence, above 0.9990, expect a further rise to 1.0055. A break above this level would call for a new advance to 1.0090.

The NZD/USD is still trading around the spot of 0.7004. The current price is seen at 0.7004.

The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.7004 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.7075 because it represents the weekly resistance 1.

The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the zone of 0.7075 (major resistance).

So, major resistance is seen at 0.7075, while immediate support is found at 0.6946.

If the pair closes below the price of 0.6946, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6850 to test the daily support 2.

The NZD/USD pair is expected to trade between the levels of 0.7004 and 0.6850. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market.

The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell trades are recommended below the double top of 0.7004 with targets at 0.6869 and 0.6850.

Stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.7075. Additionally, the pair will probably decline because the downward trend is still strong.

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9991. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9991 (the level of 0.9991 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.0033. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9991 followed by 0.9949, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.0093. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9991 and 1.0093; for that we expect a range of 164 pips (1.0093 - 0.9991). On the 4-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.0033 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.0033, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.0093 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support 2 of 0.9949.

GBP/USD is expected to trade in lower range as the key resistance lies at 0.7020. The pair recorded lower tops and lower bottoms, which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.7020 is not surpassed, a further drop to 0.6960 and even to 0.6945 seems more likely to occur.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6960. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6945. The pivot point stands at 0.7020. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7035 and the second one at 0.7055.

EUR/USD: There is a bearish bias on the EUR/USD pair and the price could move further and further southwards, testing the support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for April and dips would be witnessed in most cases.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair still maintains its bullishness, despite some hidden consolidation in the market. The price is still above the important support line at 1.0000, going towards the resistance line at 1.0050 and 1.0100, which would be the targets for this week. The bullishness in the market would be logical as long as the price is above the support line at 1.0000.

GBP/USD: In spite of what happened here last week, the Cable remains bullish. The price would rise further upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.2600 (which was also tested last week). GBP pairs would trend upwards and downwards strongly this month; though certain movement would be downwards.

USD/JPY: There is a bearish signal on the USD/JPY pair, brought about by the bearish movement that occurred on Monday. The price is below the supply level at 111.00 and very close to the demand level at 110.50. The next targets for the bears are located at the demand levels at 110.00 and 109.50, which would be attained before the end of this week.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has dropped by over 100 pips this week. Since March 13, 2017, the price has gone down 500 pips, now below the supply zone at 118.00. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and further bearish movement is anticipated, especially in the face of the bearish outlook on JPY pairs.

The PMI Construction in the UK fell to 52.2 from 52.5 in February, 0.3 points lower than consensus. After Monday's slight disappointment with the PMI Manufacturing data (54.2, threshold 55), the market was likely to be equally afraid of a decline in today's reading, so a modest correction is calming. The details of the report said the slowdown in housing was offset by a pickup in civil engineering and commercial activity, but the business activity growth eased in March. In conclusion, the data are still quite decent and so far there is no need to panic over the Brexit uncertainty.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame after the data were published. The market remains stable at 1.2440, although it still means a decrease of 0.35% from the start of the day. However, the decrease towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2402 might be continued mainly due to unfinished bearish flag pattern. The projected target is at the level of 1.2334.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday. The interest rates were lest at the level of 1.5%, just as widely anticipated. It was the seventh straight meeting interest rates were left unchanged. Overall, the cash rate has stood at 1.5% for the past eight meetings. In its official statement RBA said, that "Inflation remains quite low. Headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017 to be above 2%. The rise in underlying inflation is expected to be a bit more gradual with growth in labor costs remaining subdued". In conclusion, the Australian economy is following the gradual expansion path set by the RBA, the only concern seem to be bubble growing on the property market.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The strong technical support around the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.7592 was violated and now the price is heading towards the next technical support at the level of 0.75.39.

GBP/JPY is expected to prevail its downside movement. The pair remains in a down trend, capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The nearest key resistance at 118.60 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. Furthermore, the relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50.

To sum up, as long as 138.30 is not surpassed, look for a return to 136.70 and 136.05 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 136.70. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 136.05. The pivot point stands at 138.30. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 138.95 and the second one at 139.45.

Little movement has taken place during the Asian session, as a large part of the market (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India) celebrates the feast. The climate is calm, albeit with a predominance of risk aversion, as a result of yesterday's bombing in Russia.

On Tuesday 4th March the event calendar is quite busy, so the global investors will keep an eye on Trade Balance data from the US and Canada and American Factory Orders. There is a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi later on the day as well.

USD/CAD analysis for 04/04/2017:

The Trade Balance data from Canada are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and the market participants still expect a surplus of 0.7bln Dollars, 0.1bln less than a month ago. This means that exports are greater than imports, so the Canadian economy is still in expansion mode.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the data are released. The bulls are trying to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3412. If the data are better than expected, the price might rally higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3535. If the data are worse than expected, the price should get back to the trading range.

EUR/USD analysis for 04/04/2017:

The Trade Balance data from the US are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The market participants expect the trade deficit to narrow from -48.5bln Dollars to -46.0 bln Dollars. Moreover, the Factory Orders (scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT) are expected to decrease from 1.2% to 1.0% on month-to-month basis. The real action, however, is centered on the implied one-year forecast, which is set to pop 6.9%. If accurate, the gain will mark the strongest year-over-year increase in nearly three years.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bears are getting close to the golden trend line, but the downward momentum seems to be decreasing. If the good data do not help the Dollar, the market might dive even deeper to test the next technical support at the level of 1.0599.

Market snapshot: GOLD tries to break the trend line

The yellow metal is gaining momentum ahead of the dynamic trend line resistance around the level of $1,260. If the break out is successful, then the next resistance is seen at the level of $1,263 and it might be tested before the market conditions will become overbought. It is an important level to keep an eye on.

The Dollar index remains firm mainly moving sideways. A triangle formation implies on last spike higher towards 101 is possible before a bigger pullback to test support. Trend remains bullish in the short term.

Black line - resistance

Green line - support trend line

The Dollar index has broken out of the cloud support in the 4-hour chart. Short-term support is at 100.40 and resistance is at 100.70. A break above resistance for a final throw over is very possible. However, a break below 100.40 will confirm that the upward move from 98.80 is complete and at least a back test of the cloud support should be expected.

Blue line - resistance

Black line - neckline support

The Dollar index is testing important cloud resistance in the Daily chart. From 101 to 101.80 we have very important resistance and I believe it is more probable to see a rejection and reversal than a bullish breakout.

Gold has broken out and above the short-term bearish channel as expected and is challenging the $1,263 top. A break above that top is expected as well as a move towards $1,300. Trend is now bullish and important short-term support is found at $1,240.

Red lines - bearish channel (broken)

Gold has moved above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) and is breaking higher. Trend is bullish. A back test of the broken cloud could be seen today but overall trend remains bullish and we continue to target $1,300-$1,310.

Red line - resistance

Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

The weekly candle is about to break above the resistance of the 2017 highs. Once broken, I expect Gold price to move towards the black trend line resistance around $1,300. I continue to be optimistic as long as the price remains above $1,194.

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Retail Sales m/m, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Factory Orders m/m, and Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0720.

Strong Resistance:1.0713.

Original Resistance: 1.0703.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0693.

Target Inner Area: 1.0668.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0643.

Original Support: 1.0633.

Strong Support: 1.0623.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0616.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, 10-y Bond Auction, and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Factory Orders m/m, and Trade Balance. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.15.

Resistance. 2: 110.93.

Resistance. 1: 110.71.

Support. 1: 110.46.

Support. 2: 110.24.

Support. 3: 110.02.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

USDX is being supported by the 99.66 level in the short-term, with a strong resistance trying to cap gains across the board around 100.15. If we witness a breakout over there, one could expect further advances toward 100.64, where the bullish bias could become the main path for the coming days. MACD indicator is reaching the neutral territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.64 / 101.17

H1 chart's support levels: 100.11 / 99.66

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.11, take profit is at 99.66 and stop loss is at 100.57.

The pair managed to have a very bearish's weekly opening, as it's challenging the 200 SMA at H1 chart. If that moving average gives up, then we can expect further weakness toward 1.2391, where a downside acceleration can increase. Overall, GBP/USD seems to have found dynamic support over 1.2450 and if it breaks above 1.2512, then it can reach the 1.2570 level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2512 / 1.2570

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2391 / 1.2292

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2391, take profit is at 1.2292 and stop loss is at 1.2493.

The price is testing major resistance at 1.2531 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance, and descending resistance) and we expect to see a reaction from this level for a further drop to at least 1.2378 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 94% level where we hope to see a reaction from when Stochastic reaches that level.

Now the price is testing major support at 0.6992 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, and Fibonacci extension) and we remain bullish above this level for a push up to 0.7091 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). When the price surpasses our descending resistance line it will give us further confidence of our bullish move up.