Kpler Crude Oil Interesting Moves (Released on 6 October 2016)

After a preliminary deal last week, skepticism about OPEC’s ability to cut output has risen. Nigeria, Libya and Iran have been exempted from the deal due to particular situations that put their production below regular levels. Below, some insights on Iranian and Nigerian situations.

Iran

Exports:
Iran is exempted from the pact and has reaffirmed that it is willing to attain pre-sanction production levels. As shown below, Iran has steadily increased its exports since the lifting of sanctions, reaching 2.6 MMbpd in September.

Floating storage:
A portion of Iran’s output has gone into floating storage. Our data shows 38.6 MMbblsarefloating near Kharg Island and Assaluyeh.14.4 MMbbls have been added in 2016.

Assaluyeh Floating Storage Kharg Island Floating storage

Nigeria

Nigerian exports have significantly dropped in the last months as a direct consequence of Niger Delta militant attacks on oil infrastructure. As mentioned last week, Qua Iboe and Forcados loadings have resumed and with the current line-up for October, we expect Nigerian exports to reach at least September levels.

Americas

US trade figures – Week Ending 09/30

Refinery turnaround / spare:

Philips66 Borger, Texas

Marathon Galveston bay, Texas

LyondelBasell, Texas

Philips66, Los Angeles

Chevron, Richmond

Watch list

Next OPEC meeting: Vienna, November 30.

Saudi Arabia’s 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery to shut down for maintenance in November.