Ranking the locals: What does Mills’ return mean for St. Mary’s?

So Patty Mills is coming back. (Or maybe he isn’t.) And he’ll make an instant impact. (Or maybe he won’t.)

It’s tough to know exactly what’s happening because it appears that not even Gaels Coach Randy Bennett knows exactly what’s happening with Mills’ hand. And how can anyone really know until Mills goes through a few days of practice?

But let’s assume Mills plays this weekend in the WCC tournament. And let’s also assume, for the sake of argument, that the Gaels don’t win the thing — because if they do, they get the WCC’s automatic bid and there’s no argument to be made. And then what good would this Hotline post be?

So … What must happen for the Gaels to claim an at-large bid? In my opinion, it’s not implausible despite some of the losses they’ve had without Mills.

It seems like a three-step process:

1. Mills must play and play well. He must show the NCAA selection committee that he’ll be an impact player in their tournament because they want impact players and thrilling games and the best teams they can get.

2. The Gaels must reach the WCC finals and lose to Gonzaga. They suffered enough losses without Mills that they can’t endure one in the semis, to an unranked team, with him – that would undermine their whole case: That with a healthy Mills, they’re one of the best 30-35 teams in the land.

(And if the Gaels lose in the finals to anyone but Gonzaga, it would mean two bids for the league, Gonzaga and the tourney champ; and it’s tough to see the WCC getting three.)

3. The selection committee also must determine that SMC’s resume with a healthy Mills – that is, everything they did prior to his injury and whatever they do with him this weekend – is good enough for a bid.

On this I’m not so sure, because the Gaels have a loss to Texas A&M UTEP (thanks for the correction D W), a relatively weak SOS and a glaring lack of quality wins.

Much of that is through no fault of their own – they had a tough time scheduling major conference foes because everyone knew the Gaels would be good and nobody wanted to risk a loss.

And the committee will take scheduling intent into consideration. I just don’t know if that will mean enough to offset the quantitative factors working against the Gaels.

But at least, it would seem, they have a chance.

1. Cal (21-8)Results: Beat USC 81-78 (OT), lost to UCLA 72-68Next up: at Arizona and Arizona StateComment: Could have made any number of teams No. 1, which stands in stark contrast with last week, when nobody deserved to hold the top spot.

2. St. Mary’s 24-5Results: Won at Pepperdine 62-49 and at LMU 70-57Next up: vs. Portland or Pepperdine/USF in WCC semisComment: The No. 2 seed means a bye into the semifinals but also one less game for Mills to find his game.

3. (tie) Santa Clara (15-16)Results: Lost to Gonzaga 81-73, beat Portland 67-65 (OT)Next up: vs. San Diego/LMU in WCC quartersComment: The crowd-spurred techs did not cause the Broncos to lose the Gonzaga game, but they sure played a major role.

3. (tie) Stanford (16-11)Results: Lost to UCLA 76-71, beat USC 75-63Next up: at Arizona State and ArizonaComment: Gotta give the Cardinal credit for two more-than-respectable performances. If Johnny Dawkins could figure out how to hold those double-digit first-half leads, he’d be onto something.

3. (tie) San Jose State (13-14) Results: Beat Idaho 72-64 and Hawaii 61-59Next up: at Nevada and Utah StateComment: Bumped SJSU up to its highest ranking of the season after the home sweep. Looking ahead: It’s more important for the Spartans to get through the weekend healthy than victorious, and if they avoid Nevada in the WAC quarters, all the better.

6. USF (11-18)Results: Lost at Loyola Marymount 61-57, won at Pepperdine 70-62Next up: vs. Pepperdine in WCC first roundComment: The victory at Pepperdine was one of the most stunning results of the weekend. Rex has them playing hard.