Monday, March 10, 2014

Keith Boykin has an interesting analysis of the changing math of marriage equality at his Tumblr blog. Basically he looks at the 17 states in which marriage equality is currently legal and realizes that their electoral vote total is 204, which is getting pretty close to the magic number of 270 which is used to elect the President of the United States.

If you add the states with civil unions (CO-9 electoral votes, NV-6 electoral votes, OR-7 electoral votes) or domestic partnerships (WI-10 electoral votes), the number rises to 236. And if you add the two states where judges have recently struck down gay marriage bans (UT-6 electoral votes and OK-7 electoral votes) but action is pending, the number increases to 249. Utah and Oklahoma aren’t likely to vote Democratic in any upcoming presidential election, but the 204 electoral votes in the states that do have same-sex marriage reflects how the Democratic Party has shifted so dramatically since Republicans tried to use marriage as a wedge issue to defeat John Kerry just 10 years ago. With 204 electoral votes at stake, it’s inconceivable that any Democratic presidential candidate would ever again oppose marriage equality.

It is very possible that by the time the 2016 Presidential election happens in November 2016 same-sex couples will be able to get married in enough states that equals 270 electoral votes, depending on when the Supreme Court gets the appropriate marriage equality case.

President Obama!

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