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Some people never bother to develop a taste for the AHL, but if you want to forecast the next wave of NHL talent, then tracking pro hockey’s triple-A league is simply a must.

While not every hockey fan is prepared to navigate the waters of another 30-team league, a full 85% of NHL players first skate on AHL ice. (Siena Slusser)

There will always be other-worldly talents like Crosby and Stamkos who, due to talent (and the needs of their team), step straight into the NHL. There will also always be those like Claude Giroux, James Neal, Louie Eriksson, and Jonathan Quick who first laced ’em up in the AHL – spending time riding the bus before making their mark in the bigs.

But predicting success isn’t an easy task.

The AHL is league rife with split personalities. As the top developmental league for NHL talent, many of the franchises are owned by their parent NHL empires and stress player development, playing their young talent even when not necessarily in the team’s direct interest.

Meanwhile, a few AHL teams remain independent and place more emphasis on winning. Depending on which club a young skater plays for will impact his development curve, and in turn any analysis by observers.

Further, some players are juggernauts in the AHL, but for one reason or another their game doesn’t translate to the NHL. It’s a basic fact of the AHL: not every top scorer is going to make it to the NHL, never mind thrive there. Or, as is case with this past season’s fifth place point-potter, Keith Aucoin, the A’s best scorers are sometimes those who have had already their day in the NHL.

How exactly, then, does one establish a player’s trajectory with confidence?

While admittedly crude, one of the best discriminators remains age. Most great NHL players spend only a season or two in the AHL, leaving behind the minors behind at a young age.

But this method is not perfect, of course. Some NHL teams – like the Detroit Red Wings for much of the past decade – can afford to let their prospects distill for longer periods of time. So successful predictors pay attention to positions and parent-club needs while tracking the young talent.

With that in mind, here are the AHL’s top 25 scorers for 2011-12 under 25 (overall league scoring rank in parentheses). You haven’t heard the last from these guys.

Maroon has bounced back from whatever mysterious incident caused his dismissal from the Philadelphia Phantoms in October 2010, continuing the goal-scoring that earned him notice going back to his days as a London Knight. DobberHockey thinks he should make the jump to the NHL full time this coming season…but based on the sandpaper he adds to a line-up rather than the lamps he lights.

A member of the 2010 WJC gold-medal winning American team, Johnson made a splash during his rookie AHL campaign this year. He finished strong by putting together a 13-game goal scoring streak in March.

Initially undrafted and playing in the ECHL, A-M was spotted and signed by the New York Rangers in June 2011. He promptly went out and led the Whale in points this past season (tied). Plus, he’s got his own website.

Holland was selected in the first round (15th overall) by the Anaheim Ducks in the 2009 NHL entry draft. He’s already scored a game-winner against Roberto Luongo – no word, however, on how much this pumped the young skater’s tires.

Another first rounder (26th overall) from the 2009 draft, this former US National Development Team member has already played 28 games in the NHL for the Ducks. Palmieri has notched five goals NHL (eight points) over those games.

Red Wings GM Ken Holland summed up the problems of young, skilled players in a recent piece by long-time Wings reporter, Ansar Khan. “(The NHL) is a hard league to be good at when you’re 21, unless you’re a superstar. He’s got to continue to mature as a player. He needs to come to camp and keep developing. He competes hard, has good hands. He needs to get quicker in terms of leg strength.”

The Bleacher Report has Nyquist ranked as the Wing’s second most important prospect (after Defenseman Brendan Smith). And Holland has said that Nyquist will be given a chance to make the team in the fall.

I’m not 100% but I think JAM is not under contract with the Rangers. He’s actually will be UFA come July 1st.

Guest

I know he’s 26 now, but I’d like to see Chris Bourque make the jump next year. Lit it up with Hershey. Maybe Boston will give him shot, because he’s Ray’s boy.

MargannLaurissa87

Great article! I have seen many of these players and they are all worthy choices. I am especially proud of Jonathan Audy-Marchessault; he was one of my favourite players in junior and now in the professional ranks.

Ross Bonander

Glad to see the AHL get some love, good piece, although I can’t help but wonder why Matt Fraser is so far down after a 37 goal season, good for second overall?

Brent Lemon

Ross, the ranking was based only on total points – but that was why a larger sample size was used, to make sure that folks like Fraser were included on the list. And like so many on this list, I think we’ll see more from the Red Deer native who scored 21 goals in his first 40 games for the T-Stars.

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