Changes in store as state warms

Aug. 19, 2013

Written by

CentralOhio.com

Heavy rains increase

Ohio’s precipitation has increased by more than 3 inches in the past century, but it has not fallen evenly. A look at one-inch rain days per year:

City

1900-1910

2000s

Dayton

6 days

more than 9 days

Columbus

4.5 days

8 days

Cleveland

less than 4 days

7 days

Source: Ohio Climatologist

Climate change causes

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Want to help?

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides a number of things people, businesses, schools and drivers can do to alleviate climate change emissions. Here are some home tips: • Change five lights: Replace your five most frequently used light fixtures or the light bulbs in them with Energy Star-qualified products. You will help the environment while saving $70 a year on energy bills. • Look for Energy Star: When buying new products for your home, look for the EPA’s Energy Star label to help you make the most energy-efficient decision. You can find the Energy Star label on more than 60 kinds of products, including appliances, lighting, heating and cooling equipment, electronics and office equipment. • Heat and cool smartly: Heating and cooling accounts for almost half your energy bill — about $1,000 a year. Simple steps such as changing air filters regularly, properly using a programmable thermostat, and having your heating and cooling equipment maintained annually by a licensed contractor can save energy, increase comfort and help protect the environment. • Use water efficiently: Three percent of the nation’s energy is used to pump and treat water, so conserving water conserves energy, which reduces greenhouse gas pollution. Pursue simple water-saving actions such as not letting the water run while shaving or brushing teeth. Be smart when irrigating your lawn or landscape. Only water plants when needed, and do it during the coolest part of the day; early morning is best. To use the EPA’s carbon footprint calculator, or to see the entire list of tips, go to www.epa.gov/climate change/wycd.

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Bugs are lasting longer, birds are moving north and ice fishing on Lake Erie is becoming a lot more difficult.

Ohio is warming, but not just anecdotally. The numbers don’t lie.

In the 1900s, the state’s temperatures have increased by roughly a degree, and projections show they could rise much faster in the new century.

And while climate change is sometimes thought about in terms of glacial melting and coastline loss, it has had real effects on Ohio, effects that likely will become more dramatic with time.

For example, the number of 90-degree days in Cincinnati is expected to increase from nearly 20 per year from 1961 to 1990 to more than 40 from 2070 to 2099, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. That is using the group’s most conservative emission projections; a more severe scenario has the number of 90-degree days spiking above 80 per year.

The group projected that by the end of this century, Ohio’s summers will feel more like present-day Arkansas while its winters will feel more like those currently experienced in Virginia.

The change in Ohio’s climate would have numerous effects on the state’s ecosystem and residents. Warmer winters will affect fish spawning in Lake Erie, hotter summers will increase health problems for people suffering from asthma and the overall change is expected to lead to heavier rains and longer droughts.

Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland spoke about the problems surrounding climate change earlier this month. He said the debate must shift from whether climate change is happening to what can be done to mitigate it.

“It is our moral responsibility to arrest and prevent additional damage to our climate,” he said.

The state isn’t warming evenly, however. In the past century, most of the warming has occurred in the winter and spring. And while summer high temperatures haven’t risen dramatically, nighttime lows have crept up because of an increase in humidity and cloud cover preventing heat from escaping.

Jeff Rogers, state climatologist with Ohio State University, said the warming climate likely will lead to extended dry spells followed by times of heavy precipitation.

“We’ll approach drought, then go to flooding,” he said. “This is the kind of stuff that’s expected with climate change.”

Higher temperatures cause the Earth’s surface to dry, and warmer air can hold more water, increasing humidity, Rogers said. Fortunately for Ohio, the state still has weather systems that lift the moisture high enough for it to cool and fall as rain. In fact, the state has seen its precipitation increase from an average of 37 inches per year to an average of 40 inches per year in the past century.

Other places, such as the western United States, are losing precipitation and are plagued with drought. Rogers said the two are related.

“It wouldn’t be unfair to say we are acquiring more humidity and rain at their expense,” he said.

The presence of consistent precipitation and warming winters actually could be a benefit to Ohio agriculture in the short term, but farmers likely will take a hit over the decades. Brent Sohngen, professor of environmental economics at Ohio State University, wrote in an essay he shared that corn and soybean yields are expected to drop by 50 percent or more by the middle of the century. He noted that the center of the corn belt already has shifted north by about 100 miles in 50 years.

While changes in climate will affect agriculture, and to some extent tourism, he said most of Ohio’s industries aren’t sensitive to climate. Instead, the problems of climate change will most hurt people in tropical areas, including creating the lack of available drinking water. He was not hopeful such scenarios would prompt Ohio residents to change.

“Ohioans should be enormously worried about these impacts because inevitably problems in those regions become our problems,” he wrote. “I’m doubtful we’ll act because of these impacts, but we should.”