Has housing hit a bottom?

posted at 2:01 pm on July 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Four years ago, the housing market collapsed as the artificial bubble in prices and equity popped. The disaster infected the financial sector, thanks to the aggressive policy supported by two administrations and Congress to spread the risk for subprime and other dicey lending through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities, nearly destroying the Western economy — and still destroying massive amounts of assumed wealth. The collapse left a lot of homeowners so underwater on their mortgages and unable to make payments that massive foreclosures resulted, driving down middle-class wealth in a firestorm unparalleled in decades.

For the next four years, government interventions attempted to stabilize housing prices so that middle-class homeowners could return to rational economic planning and rekindle consumer demand. Those efforts failed, though, and the last two years have mainly seen a laissez-faire approach that encouraged markets to find a rational bottom. According to one analysis, we have finally reached that point:

U.S. home values have risen four consecutive months, Zillow.com said on Tuesday, a trend that led the housing website to declare that the market has turned the corner from its five-year slump.

“After four months with rising home values and increasingly positive forecast data, it seems clear that the country has hit a bottom in home values,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Seattle-based Zillow, which measures home values. “The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own.”

The home value index in the second quarter rose on an annual basis for the first time since 2007, increasing 0.2 percent compared with last year’s second quarter to $149,300, according to Zillow. Going back to March, values have now risen four months in a row.

Zillow’s index is a measure of the value of single-family residences, condominiums and units in housing cooperatives, regardless of whether those homes sold within a given period. The index is calculated using Zillow’s method for estimating current home values in a given geographic area on a given day. The index is based on data from more than 80 million homes, Zillow says.

Not so fast, says CNBC’s Diana Olick. The flattening of the downward trend is a positive step, but it’s mainly true for the markets who got hardest hit:

Zillow’s report, which compares prices of homes sold in the same neighborhood, also showed a stronger 2.1 percent gain quarter to quarter, which is the biggest uptick since 2005. The biggest price gains, however, are in the markets that saw the biggest price drops during the latest housing crash. Phoenix, for example, saw a 12 percent annual price gain on the Zillow index.

That has other analysts claiming that the overall surge in national prices is due to price bubbles in certain markets.

“Strong demand, particularly in areas of California, Arizona and Nevada, are pushing up home prices very quickly in the short-term. And because many of the home purchases in these areas are cash transactions, there appears to be less braking of prices by our current appraisal system than seen in other parts of the country,” noted Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys and chief analyst for HousingPulse. “The trend raises the distinct possibility of housing price bubbles emerging in some of these hot housing markets.” …

While home prices on the Zillow index are improving most in formerly distressed markets, like Miami, Orlando and much of California, they are still dropping in other non-distressed markets, like St. Louis (down 4 percent annually) Chicago (down 5.8 percent annually) and Philadelphia (down 3.5 percent annually).

“Those people looking at current results and calling a bottom are being dangerously short-sighted,” said Michael Feder, CEO of Radar Logic, a real estate data and analytics company. “Not only are the immediate signs inconclusive, but the broad dynamics are still quite scary. We think housing is still a short.”

This is still positive news. We needed the markets that got hammered hardest in the collapse to recover. However, their drop was so sharp that the recent rise could be one of two results: either the sharp drop took values too low for the short term and this is a return to a rational bottom, or it prompted so much interest from investors that it created another irrational mini-bubble. While that would not be good news in the short term, it’s probably a result we could expect as the market searches for that rational bottom in the long term.

Thanks to the resistance to keep intervening in a valuation crisis caused by excessive intervention, we are much closer to finding a rational valuation than we were in 2009 and 2010, when Barack Obama kept insisting on short-term credits to spark demand at irrational valuations. Not only did those gimmicks fail to create demand (it simply shifted future demand to the present) and fail to create qualified homebuyers (instead subsidizing already-qualified homebuyers with taxpayer dollars), it ended up saddling people who bought non-foreclosure properties in the last four years with overpriced homes. That will damage their long-term equity positions and wealth accumulation.

Whether or not we’ve reached the bottom, we’re at least approaching it by now. The next step is to generate more demand through increasing the number of qualified homebuyers in the market as foreclosure inventories disappear. More government interventions won’t work, and they’d likely create the same kind of irrational bubble that ended up nearly destroying the Western economies. The only way to grow demand rationally is to generate enough new jobs to put the sidelined back to work, in order to attain the financial position necessary to buy. Unfortunately, this administration hasn’t bothered to address the kind of regulatory and fiscal reforms that would fire up the engines of job creation, and these days seems more interested in arguing that small businesses are parasitical rather than productive.

Manufacturing this month expanded at its slowest pace since late 2010, hobbled by weak overseas demand for American goods, though a rise in domestic orders helped cushion the blow.

Financial information firm Markit said on Tuesday its U.S. “flash” manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for July fell to 51.8 from 52.5 in June. July marked the fourth consecutive month of slower growth and the sector’s weakest showing since December, 2010.

The index remained above 50, indicating factory activity continued to expand, only less rapidly.

New orders for exports fell outright for the second straight month, the first back-to-back decline in nearly three years, Markit said, as recession in Europe dented demand.

We need to unshackle capital to get it invested in the private sector, and the only way to do that is to back off on tax increases and eliminate the massive regulatory uncertainties introduced by ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, and the EPA’s war on coal.

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What the American Communists really want, is for us all to live in one-bedroom hovels, where electricity and running water are available, for 4 or 5 hours a day, while they, being the more equal pigs that they are …

Not sure we’re ready for the home market to recover yet. I’m reading Reckless Endangerment and I’ve got to say, the same social engineering crap that was in place then is apparently still around to push the “dream” of home ownership on those who aren’t qualified under traditional measures. If we’ve learned nothing from that disaster then I’m afraid we’re bound to repeat it, if not in a couple years, then ten years down the road when the whole thing blows up again.

This analysis is not a concrete number anyway. Surely a .2% rise is within the margin of error. With as many times as they update the numbers through the year, it actually could have been a drop (see unemployment analysis).

What the American Communists really want, is for us all to live in one-bedroom hovels, where electricity and running water are available, for 4 or 5 hours a day, while they, being the more equal pigs that they are …

No, we are still above the historical trendlines for housing prices.
Which means we have not fully gotten over the bubble’s impact. The good news is that we likely won’t see housing values dropping more, they just won’t be moving upwards in a meaningful way for 3-4 more years.

This normalization assumes that the depression comes to an end when BHO is removed from office. If the current administration remains in place after November, we will likely see another drop in the pricing as businesses start laying off again and we get another wave of foreclosures.

We need to unshackle capital to get it invested in the private sector, and the only way to do that is to back off on tax increases and eliminate the massive regulatory uncertainties introduced by ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, and the EPA’s war on coal.

In other words, Obama has to go. Because capital is going to stay where it is so long as Obamacare and a second term for the jug-eared Kenyan is a possibility.

According to my banker friend banks are taking forever to forclose on people and would rather have a home with someone in it than empty. In many cases waiting for an uptick in the housing market. people are staying in their foreclosed homes for up to two years paying nothing. Not everything has even hit the market yet.

Anyone who looks at the current economic system and thinks it has bottom should be fired. With the much lower ability to get a loan, the lowest labor participation rate since the 70s it just doesn’t make sense.

Mirages and the Economy Issue…
On the economy, there is a lot of mirages right now, a lot of seeming contradictions and ambiguities. One thing is clear: the economy isn’t in free fall, and it won’t be come November.
The economy may tick up a bit before November. Regardless, we really really need to get off the idea of making this election just about the economy; that would give O the win.
When the sterile issue of the short-term economy is the main issue, O skates to victory on the other issues… unless we make it clear that O isn’t acceptable on the other issues. The MSM paints O as acceptable on the other issues. It is up to us to paint O as unacceptable on the other issues. Hit… hard!

When 40% plus of current sales figures are in “distressed” residential real estate )foreclosures, REO’s, short sales, etc), relying on overall numbers to predict trends is rather foolhardy.

Add the massive “shadow inventory”, and the still unrealized backlog of foreclosures resulting from the DOJ settlement with the banks, and you have a trend buster.

Moreover, there is early anecdotal evidence that the consumer speculators are back in the market buying up homes to rent (not the pros, but the average consumer), and the early default rates on these “investor” loans are attention-grabbing.

To some of us, the “postive” news here appears to be driven by no more than election year hype. If there are positive trands, they are the result of short term policy decisions focused more on number-engineering than on any long term market recovery.

No, it hasn’t. Not until every mortgage is controlled by government, every home and apartment has been occupied and has had every bedroom and garage sublet to individuals and families, dens, family rooms and kitchens declared community space, and every neighborhood organized into communes by government decree.

At that point housing will have hit rock bottom and government declared a glorious recovery.

No, no. In SOCAL. I am an Okie, but am living in California’s Inland Empire, one of the hardest hit areas in the country. In 2006, my house appraised for about $170K more than I had bought it for in December of 2002. The bottom has fallen out in the years since.

I’m fortunate that I didn’t buy in 2006. Those folks are the ones who have been at the forefront of the foreclosure stampede. Many of their homes are worth less than half of the purchase price now. Some foreclosures, on what were once $700K-ish homes, are going for less than $100K at auction now.

Is the cost of housing rising fast enough to provide a better return than investment-grade bonds? If not, it is better to invest in bonds than in real estate. The current situation with slight real estate price rises is like the addition of jobs that does not keep up with the increase in population.

The returns on real estate historically has several consecutive years where returns are either above or below the return on bonds. Just because real estate prices are rising does not mean real estate makes sense as an investment.

For real estate prices to rise fast enough to exceed the return on bonds, you need 1) the formation of new households (i.e., 25-year olds of different gender able to marry) to provide stable demand, and 2) construction costs need to be rising (construction materials in demand, and builders able to afford to hire US citizens) to restrict supply.

A lot of evidence suggesting that housing is on the rebound; the flash PMI shows that manufacturing is still slow in July as the global slowdown continues. Markets are down, waiting for a surprise on the good side for a change.

10,000 boomers retiring daily …for the next 20 years or so (I’m in that cohort btw).

The next crop of college educated wage earners is entering the jobs market with something like an average of $50K in start-out debt (from college loans …which in many cases they’re parents also went in hock for, to some degree, especially as co-signers).

And the “jobs” market still experiencing massive un- and under- employment (way more then the 8.2% LOL “official” government figures).

So we’ve got aging boomers who are going to flood the market for various reasons, prospective young buyers who are already have serious debt issues, and no jobs for anyone.

And government debt at all levels still increasing, due to fiduciary mismanagement that is beyond mere criminal incompetence?

The housing market hasn’t even come close to an actual bottom yet.

If the banks weren’t holding onto their foreclosures, it would make the current situation look like pansies and begonias.

I would think that map would tell you where downward pressure is highest on current values as well. If 80% of a neighborhood is underwater, buyers are going to beat the living daylights out of sellers. Seems like the hardest hit areas would be the last to come back around.

Ed I don’t think this is the first or even the second time you’ve posed this question. The answer is still the same. Housing will not recover until after the job market does. That is the bottom line. Until we start adding jobs in a meaningful way we will not see a rise in housing prices because there just aren’t enough people capable of buying them.

If 80% of a neighborhood is underwater, buyers are going to beat the living daylights out of sellers. Seems like the hardest hit areas would be the last to come back around.

TexasDan on July 24, 2012 at 3:55 PM

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I have an acquaintance who is buying foreclosed properties for cash, fixing them up and renting them back out.

It’s a great idea except …

– Despite the number of massively underwater mortgages in the county, the county auditor just INCREASED property taxes (if you exclude the properties in minority owned areas) from 6 – 10% as part of a state required THREE YEAR process. This is a rampant problem and is going to become a much bigger political issue. The county auditor is a Democrat, BTW.

- If we enter another massive drop in home prices after the election. Banks, which have been free and clear to go back to aggressively foreclosing on deliquent mortgages since the end of February, have instead dramatically reduced the number of foreclosures in the pipeline. Maybe for POLITICAL reasons?
If we get another major leg down in home prices, my acquaintance is going to have lost a LOT of equity on EVERY property he has purchased – which will tend to discourage others from following his lead.

Only in your wildest most feverish dreams Ed. Think of the average American home having a value of right around… $55,000.00 cause that is where it’s going. Don’t like it… BWAHAHAHAHAH……… Sucks to be you then…..

Hot Air’s audience deserves more than these feeble kitten-play begs-the-question intros.
HELL NO the market hasn’t hit bottom. Not with millions of homes still in foreclosure / arrears. Were all those lenders to actually process those hodlings, book those losses, they would instantly be financially insolvent. That’s why they are held in abeyance / limbo. The entire network of phony investment articles, primes, subprimes, bonus-raking paper pushes would collapse like the World Trade Center towers is they were somehow compelled to act on all the defrauded mortgages at the same time.
As much as some bemoan the current state of financial loss in the housing sector, the loss of family net worth, etc., it fails to come anywhere close to how bad it will get when and if the books and crooks are ever truly resolved.

It all comes down to demographics. As Boomers retire and move to fixed income, can the Gen-Xers and Miillenials cover the spending that the economy and housing market will lose once the Boomers leave the scene? Most data says they will not and could not. The Gen-X genration neither has the wealth or the numbers in population to take up the slack from the retiring Boomers. Millenials have the numbers population wise, but they are still young and cannot make enough money. The inevitable conclusion we must reach is that regardless of the policies by a president, Fed, or Congress, the economy and the housing market will continue to deflate and contract. Thus the housing market is in for a continued downturn. Additionally, in a deflationary period, which we are in now, housing will drop because credit will be nearly impossible to get, so how will people afford more expensive houses when it is harder to get loans?

Getting tough to buy a home…sellers still want to get what they put into it, or at least cover their mortgage…or the house is in foreclosure or litigation of some sort…and banks are not exactly handing out money for mortgages, have you seen what is happening in the rental arena?

Unless you are eligible for government housing, if you cannot afford to buy, or cannot even find a place to buy…and you can’t rent, no place to rent or are facing rents and leases that are going through the roof…and Mom and Dad don’t have a spare room or basement anymore because they dumped the house when the bubble burst and are living in Coral Gables now…

According to my banker friend banks are taking forever to forclose on people and would rather have a home with someone in it than empty. In many cases waiting for an uptick in the housing market. people are staying in their foreclosed homes for up to two years paying nothing. Not everything has even hit the market yet.

ldbgcoleman on July 24, 2012 at 2:19 PM

That’s right. I work for a law firm that handles foreclosures and we have files sitting since 2008-2009, and we get about 400 referrals a month.