A month ago everybody, including the Labour party, got terribly excited about the fact that public sector net borrowing in 2012-13 was fractionally higher than in 2011-12. This was despite the fact that the latest year's numbers almost always get revised lower.

So it has proved again, and sooner than you might have expected. Borrowing for 2012-13 is now put at £116.5 billion, down from £118.5 billion in 2011-12. The deficit isn't tumbling, but it is falling. Expect that 2012-13 figure to be revised down again.

The picture for June is slightly more complicated. Stripping out distortions, June's borrowing looks to have been £0.5 billion higher than in June 2012. For April-June, public sector net borrowing excluding the distortions was £35.9 billion, unchanged on a year earlier. This was despite a sharp downward revision of receipts from the Swiss tax deal.

There are signs in the data of a stronger rise in tax receipts, particularly income tax and National Insurance. This, if maintained, could bode well for borrowing later in the year. More here.

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