Saturday, January 20, 2018

Staunton, January 20 – Given that 90
percent of Russian society is “apolitical,” Moscow commentator Boris
Kagarlitsky says, “it is impossible” to say how much support Vladimir Putin or
anyone else has. Indeed, asking that question under Russian conditions now is
completely inappropriate.

This comment from the director of
the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements came in response to a
question posed by Kazan’s Business Gazeta
to a number of Russian and Tatar analysts as to how much support Putin really
has in Russia and in Tatarstan (business-gazeta.ru/article/370091).

Talking about the support Putin has “would
be possible if there were other politicians in the country or in general if
there were politics.” But “as there is no political life or political
competition and as strictly speaking, alternatives to society aren’t offered or
are in fact banned, then the level of support [Putin has] is impossible to
assess.”

Others surveyed and their reactions
include:

·Mikhail
Delyagin, head of the Moscow Institute of Problems of Globalization, says that “support
and attitudes toward a candidate are completely different things.”Many who are very critical of Putin are still
inclined to support him. Thus, he has support but not necessarily approval.
Putin has mastered “the art of appearing to be the lesser evil.”

·Maksim
Kalashnikov, a Moscow commentator, says that post-Soviet people “vote for whoever
is ruling” and they are especially likely to do so if their rulers as Putin
have done create the impression that there are no alternatives.The incumbent president will get “more than
half” of the votes without any effort. Boosting his figures to 70 percent will
require playing games.

·Aleksey
Mukhin, the head of the Moscow Center for Political Technology, says Putin’s
support is “on the order of 80 percent” but that the authorities won’t be able
to carry out the elections with scandals of one kind or another. The opposition
“and other forces” have the capacity to ensure that things won’t go smoothly.

·Iskander
Yasaveyev of the Higher School of Economics says that since Aleksey Navalny has
not been allowed to be a candidate, the vote has no drama and participation
will be much lower than many expect.As
a result, the Kremlin will do whatever it has to in order to ensurethat participation “on paper” is what it
wants.

·Fedor
Krasheninnikov , a Yekaterinburg political analyst, says that apathy among Russiansis “very great” and that makes the likelihood
of Putin getting “a firm 55 to 60 percent” of those who will vote somewhat
impressive.

·Rafik
Mukhametshin, the rector of the Bulgar Islamic Academy, says that the people of
Tatarstan will support Putin at roughly the same level as voters in the country
as a whole, 70 to 80 percent.

·Rkail
Zaydulla, a Tatar dramatist, says that given what Moscow has done to Tatarstan
in the past year, support for Putin should be “much lower.”But “under our conditions, that won’t be the
case.”

·Azgar
Shakirov, a Tatar actor, says that no one in Tatarstan will speak against Putin
“because it is well known that he will win.“I think that more than 50 percent of the population will vote for the
current president,” if votes are counted accurately.But the re-election of Putin “will not lead
to any changes.”

·Fauziya
Bayramova, a Tatar nationalist, says that Putin has all the administrative
resources he could want but “the dissatisfaction of the people is very great.”
He’s been in power for a long time without serious progress at home and with
policies that have made Russia an outcast in the world at large.

·Renat
Ibragimov, a Tatar singer, says that Putin could easily boost his support to “more
than 70 percent” if he were to come out in support of changes in the law such
as the introduction of progressive taxation.

·Marat
Bikmullin, head of Kazan’s Information Systems group, says that Putin has more
than 50 percent support but that most of it comes from those with low levels of
education, low incomes, and a propensity to watch Moscow television all the
time.

·Ildar
Bayazitov, head of the Yardem Foundation, says that despite what has happened in
the last year, “the support for Putin in Tatarstan will be higher than in
Russia as a whole,” possibly about 80 percent in the republic and only just
over 60 percent in Russia as a whole. “The national republics always give [incumbents]
more support.

·Rafik
Abdrakhmanov, co-owner of the Tugan Avylym company, says that in his view, “the
rating of Vladimir Putin has fallen” because of what the Kremlin leader has
done to Kazan. He suggests Putin will get about 60 percent of the vote and that
the elections will be marred by falsifications and protests.