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WindowView on Global Change

Dr. Peter Raven Comments on Global Change

The following
brief excerpts are from Dr. Peter Raven. His speech was given in
February 2002 at the annual meeting for the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS; the President's address to
the society). In describing global changes observed in recent time,
Dr. Raven describes a world in decline.

From
Dr. Raven's speech we hear ...

...
he first observes that we are going to either accept the challenges
stemming from global change and thus actively respond or the
alternative is that humanity takes note but then returns to business
as usual—without doing anything in the face of change.

To
review how we got to this point, Dr. Raven gave a time based account
of population growth on earth. After all, the number of humans
on earth has a direct bearing on consumption and the demands humanity
puts on natural resources.

He
notes that over the course of some 400 generations, from the time
when humans began to cultivate crops, the earth’s human population
grew from several million people to approximately 7 billion today (population reached by 2012).

The
constant intense interactions that the 6.1 billion of us have with
the world today have no counterparts in the past. But is undoubtedly
true that since we are only 400 generations away from a hunter-gatherer
mode of surviving…[the ways of the past were only appropriate
for that time]… so how can we find new ways of thinking that
will serve us into the future?

A
little over 200 years ago the planet’s population reached
1 billion. With this growth and into the 19th and 20th centuries humanity survived and flourished by using wood, then
coal and later gas (petroleum and natural gas) resources. The fossil
fuels were then as now used for manufacturing and to make pesticides
and herbicides. For food production and thus for our survival we
presently use pesticides at a rate of some 3 million metric tons
per year. Humanity has learned how to make the nitrogen (as fertilizers)
that are now poisoning the earth and its waters.

Presently
the world’s total cultivated agricultural lands have grown
to the size of South America.

And
the range lands on which some 180 million of us raise 3.3 billion
cattle, sheep, and goats have come to occupy about a fifth of the
world’s land. Although those lands are rapidly deteriorating
under the increasing human hunger for animal protein. About two-thirds
of the world’s fisheries are being harvested beyond sustainability.
And over the last half century we’ve lost about a fifth of our
top soil, about a fifth of our agricultural land, about a fifth of
our forests… we are changing the characteristics of the atmosphere
by pouring out vast amounts of carbon dioxide and by depleting the
stratospheric ozone layer… so that habitats throughout the world
have been decimated while everywhere populations of alien invasive
plants and animals have invaded natural and cultivated habitats at
great cost to the global system.

The
most serious environmental change, however, is completely irreversible
and has the most serious consequences for us over the long run is
the loss of biodiversity ... which has risen from what we can interpret
by the fossil record of the past 55 million years at the extinction
of about one species per million [species] per year …to about
100 to 1,000 species per million per year. And it’s increasing
with enormous rapidity.

At
current rates, Dr. Raven notes that only about 5% of tropical moist
forests will survive to the middle of the coming century. In general,
by present trends, we will see a coming extinction of about two-thirds
of all living species unless humans take steps to preserve the
biodiversity of today. And this projection does not take into consideration
the impact of continued climate change, pollution, or the destructive
influence of alien invasive species. All total this creates a picture
of an extinction event that rivals that at the end of the Cretaceous
period… but in this case this is an event driven by ourselves.

Dr.
Raven’s speech continues from these remarks. His role after
all is to provide motivation for the society’s annual meeting.
Yet, that motivation seems to focus on a world that has changed
in a mere instance of geological time, driven by humans, with irreversible
consequences that cannot go on unaddressed. But how and who will
come to save humanity from its present plight is not a new question.

Within
WindowView we consider both the role of stewardship of the human
and divine kind. Still, in considering the talks and symposia presented
at scientific meetings much like 2002 annual meeting for AAAS,
we still see humans talking about humanity saving the planet and
itself. And still humanity moves on as if the problems can wait.

You might be thinking ... we are way past 2002 and even 1991 ... what about now? And we ask that same question, because in reality, with all the turmoil we see and nations butting heads and millitaries ... no one is really making progress on growing a sustainable world. Are we humans merely "Business As Usual" until time runs out? And that's the point of the change scenario ... events keep unfolding, but we as a species are not unified. The perspective we gain from Scripture explains why and where this leads us. Then again, that same text tells us to be stewards over the earth! Are we?

Ten
years before, at the Sigma Xi forum in 1991, you could hear Dr. Raven
give a presentation that echoes virtually every theme he touched
on in 2002. If his projections are correct, and certainly there
are many more problems to this than mentioned here, where will
we find ourselves in ten years?

This
has to be comprehended as a matrix of interlinked events. Change
is not simple, nor from one source alone. In spite of some
efforts by world leaders and organizations, in comprehensive material
terms, there is no present effective counter force. Convergence
here brings a picture of decline to the crossroads of time future.
Dr. Raven noted that scientists and humanity as a whole can continue
to strive for developing sustainable practices.

Sustainability then holds hope for reversing the decline. But science has yet
to fully define the means to achieve sustainability! Even so, will sustainable practice even then hold the capacity to save the earth and biodiversity? Dr. Raven's most insightful remarks
focus on the fact that sustainability indeed will 'kick in' but
only at some point along the line of future decline. What point of global decline will we be at before sustainability serves to wholly reverse the trends we now see? No
one knows! We are not even guaranteed that sustainable practices
will ever provide full counter measures!

In
truly professional fashion, Dr. Raven cited examples of scientific,
government, and leadership cooperation that can make a difference
in the future. Yet, with this motivational language ringing through
the conference center—couched in hopeful terms—the reality
of change still looms large over the face of the entire earth.

The
one conclusion that can be made is that there has never, ever,
been a set of circumstances like this. Might we one day be finding
ourselves holding to life resources on this planet by our fingernails?
We could delve into anyone of a number of horrible scenarios, but
here we only reflect on all this as a
sign of our times. We've been
told these signs will come and that we will not recognize these
for what they are. So, if humans cannot heed such signs,
then certainly the crossroads ahead will only be characterized
in troubling terms. And if 'we cannot save ourselves,’
then who will?

WindowView Director's
Note: The "Creator's
Window" was initiated as a writing project over a decade ago. The
compelling presentations at a forum hosted by one scientific society, Sigma
Xi, indicated global change was a complex problem that cut across all disciplines.
Not one science or sector of society could be excluded from the anticipated
effort needed to find solutions. If change is a sign of our times, then how
much time is left for meaningful responses? And if we've passed some or many
points of no return, what will the state of our planet be tomorrow? Time will
tell.

The importance to global change is in looking at how social, biological, and physical sciences all reveal data and signs for more ominous changes in the near future. This is change in every aspect of human and earthly affairs ... globally. The Window looks further to see change as a backdrop to a biblical timeline. Driving forces for change force us to ask the most important questions about our true origin, who we are, why we are here, and what the Scriptures tell us about the future. Change forces us to look deeper to face choice or crisis. Life is an opportunity to look for the answers.

This
is just one of many panes in the WindowView. This is a fraction of the
process identified earlier within the section entitled 'Convergence.'
Keep exploring the view, visit our page titled 'Experience
WindowView' to see how global changes are part of a larger holistic
paradigm which is the reason behind assembling this cyber-place. Putting
the picture together helps to envision humanity's direction along the
dimension of time.

A
copy of this text with footnotes and a complete listing of references
used in writing this text can be obtained by downloading the chapters
and reference list for the Creator's
Window. References that appear as ''(SXi #)'' signify the page number
from Sigma Xi's publication related to a 1991 forum on global change (see
reference list for the Creator's Window for a complete citation of this
work).

References from Sigma Xi refer to the Sigma Xi Forum Proceedings: Global Change and the Human Prospect: Issues in Population, Science, Technology and Equity, November 1991. The importance of this science society's forum is that the meeting was forward looking and demonstrates how scientists from social, biological, and physical sciences all saw change on the rise. Not just climate change, but change in every aspect of human and earth affairs ... globally.

For a general listing of books, visit the WindowView Book Page for: Science and Scripture .

Step Up To Life

Time spent looking ... through a window on life and choice ... brings the opportunity to see in a new light. The offer for you to Step Up To Life is presented on many of the web pages at WindowView. Without further explanation we offer you the steps here ... knowing that depending on what you have seen or may yet explore in the window ... these steps will be the most important of your life ...