Amo: It's Travers weekend at Saratoga

Jess Jackson of Kendall-Jackson wine fame has been in Saratoga most of the week overseeing the careers of his two current stars, Rachel Alexandra and Kensei.

Michael Amo

Jess Jackson of Kendall-Jackson wine fame has been in Saratoga most of the week overseeing the careers of his two current stars, Rachel Alexandra and Kensei.

Monday morning, just before dawn, Kensei did his final workout over a muddy track for the $1 million Shadwell Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday. Later Rachel Alexandra worked over the same track in preparation for next weekend's Woodward Stakes (G1).

The 14th running of the Travers Stakes is the premier event of the Saratoga meet. Travers day, as it is locally called, boasts 13 races, including five graded stakes races with purses totaling more than $2.3 million. For bettors, NYRA is offering a $1 million, all graded stakes, Pick 4 bet on the ninth through the 12th races.

It begins with the $300,000 Ballston Spa (G2) at 1﻿1/16 miles on the turf. The likely favorite is Cocoa Beach, an impressive winner at Saratoga in the De La Rose Stakes prepping for this event. Rutherienne and My Princess Jess, second and third in the prestigious Diana Stakes (G1) on opening weekend, will try to upset. The distance should benefit these two challengers. The price play for the upset looks to be My Princess Jess. Use all three if you play the Pick 4.

The 10th race is the $300,000 Ballerina Stakes (G1) for fillies and mares at seven furlongs over the main track. Indian Blessing, winner of last year's Test Stakes (G1) and second in the Breeders' Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint (G1), should be the favorite. However, Informed Decision is undefeated at this distance and packs a powerful resume. Either could win. Use these two if you play the Pick 4.

Next, the 3-year-olds will sprint seven furlongs in the King's Bishop Stakes (G1) with a purse of $300,000. Nine are entered, including the coupled entry of Vineyard Haven and Everyday Heroes. Munnings, who took on super filly Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell at Monmouth Park, will be the favorite. Yet Big Drama's performance against Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in the West Virginia Derby makes him very respectable, especially racing seven furlongs.

The long shot might be West Point Thoroughbred's Flat Bold. He raced nicely in the Jim Dandy (G2) and has shown he can even handle older horses at this distance. He clearly is an exotic play beneath the favorites. Use all three if you play the Pick 4.

The Travers Stakes is, on paper, one of the most balanced in years. The key to the race is how well Quality Road will run after his all-out, track-record-breaking performance in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2). If that race didn't take too much out of him and he returns to his Florida Derby form, he will win laughing. But those are two big ifs.

Our Edge, Warrior's Reward, Quality Road and Kensei all seem to have front-running styles. At the clubhouse turn, Kensei and Our Edge will be leading the way. Warrior's Reward and Quality Road will have tucked in behind these two. Cautiously behind them and racing wide will be Summer Bird, the Belmont Stakes winner and runner-up to Rachel Alexandra in a demanding Haskell Stakes. Hold Me Back and Charitable Man should be in the back, but only a few lengths off the leaders.

Down the backstretch, John Velasquez, aboard Quality Road, will try to guide his horse out of trouble in the pocket and take aim at the leaders. Kensei will brace for the challenge while Our Edge will throw in the towel. Calvin Borel, with his infamous rail-skimming-ride, will try to shoot Warrior's Reward into contention on the inside of Kensei.

As they enter the stretch, Charitable Man will join the fray, followed by Summer Bird and Hold Me Back. In mid-stretch, Warrior's Reward will steal the lead from the tiring Kensei and Quality Road. Summer Bird, not fully recuperated from his last race will not fire, leaving Charitable Man to try to catch Warrior's Reward. Hold Me Back looks to be sitting on a good race and could make the exotics very rewarding.

The likely winner is either Warrior's Reward or Charitable Man. Let the odds determine your play. Use them both if you play the Pick 4.

Good luck and keep the day job.

Michael Amo of Central Valley is chairman of the board of the Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association. Contact him at michael@thorofan.com.

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.