The enthusiasm for these new business models – made possible by the advent of smartphones and cloud computing – is based on a very short track record. And it’s a track record that’s occurred during some of the best possible economic conditions.

So what happens to their businesses during bad times?

There are plenty of plausible scenarios to imagine. But the truth is, we just don’t know, because, unlike past tech IPOs based on established businesses like advertising or retail, the gig-economy is a completely new animal.

Lyft’s first day of trading saw its stock surge as much as 20%, finishing its first day with a $27 billion valuation, well above the valuation private market investors gave it during its last funding round. That rich price does not seem to take into account the possibility of an economic downturn, says Ives. Lyft, like some of the other gig-economy firms, is losing a lot of money and the expecations for profitability appear based on a forecast of continued economic good times.

Lyft was founded in 2012, Uber in 2009, Postmates in 2011 and Airbnb in 2008.

Although Airbnb and Uber technically were created during the last recession, their businesses were so nascent at the time that they don’t really tell us much about how their current, multi-billion dollar businesses would fare in a recession.

Here are a couple of scenarios to consider:

Scenario 1: Gig-economy businesses prove to be ‘recession proof’

This scenario views services like Lyft and Uber as essential staples of everyday life. Unlike “discretionary” goods that people decide they can do without during tough economic times, ride-sharing has become a critical means of transportation.

“It has become so ingrained in people’s lives that it’s like a utility,” says Goodwater Capital’s Eric Kim. “Utilities are recession proof. Regardless of the macro, people need their electricity and their water.”

Foto: Uber CEO Dara KhosrowshahisourceRichard Drew/AP

Of course, there’s already a utility called public transportation. But the price difference between ride-sharing and public transportation is shrinking. And in some cases, public transportation isn’t a viable option, if bus stops are conveninent.

“A bus might be more economic, but if you need to get to work quickly, that 30 minutes might be worth a few more bucks,” says Kim.

But what happens when the supply of drivers experiences such a massive surge?

Drivers are already protesting because of the price cuts that Uber and Lyft have rolled out. A flood of new drivers could push prices down to rock-bottom levels. That might help lift the companies’ profit margins, but it doesn’t sound like the recipe for a sustainable business. Would Lyft and Uber have to cap the number of drivers they allow on their platforms?

Foto: Postmates CEO Bastian LehmannsourceJohn Phillips / Getty

Food delivery services like Postmates and the Uber Eats subsidiary could also draw an influx of delivery people. But ordering food may be an easier expense for consumers to cut than ride-hailing, causing a drop in demand which could further push prices down.

Scenario 3: Gig-economy companies live and die by the industries they’re disrupting

It’s worth remembering that gig-economy companies are as much “tech” companies as they are companies in the field that they’re trying to disrupt, such as transportation, hotels, or restaurants.

“There are certain businesses that can be completely obliterated when there is a downside,” says Synovus Trust’s Dan Morgan.

Airbnb seems paritcuarly vulnerable, Morgan reckons, since it’s so reliant on the travel industry. An Airbnb user “may just cancel their vacation because their spouse lost their job,” he says.

If consumers cut back on big budget expenses like buying cars, ride-hailing services will provide a great alternative. On the other hand, Uber and Lyft’s drivers still need to purchase and finance cars to do their jobs. That won’t be an easy thing for them to do if the prices they charge for rides are falling through the floor.

Be careful what you wish for

Those are just three potential ways things could play out if the economy were to go into a tailspin.

Morgan worries that the spate of IPOs could itself be a bad omen.

These companies “were sitting on sidelines for a long time. No one seemed to care,” he said. “All of a sudden everyone’s rushing to get to the markets. That brings up my concern that we could be near the end of the cycle.”

If that turns out to be the case, we’ll know whether gig-economy companies are recession-proof sooner than we’d like.