Tory leadership plots thicken: why David Cameron is worrying about Theresa May and Philip Hammond

Something's up. The Times (£) reports today that Theresa May was the victim of a dirty tricks operation at the weekend designed to scupper her nascent leadership campaign. Meanwhile the Independent claims Philip Hammond was "slapped down" by Danny Alexander for airing his dirty laundry about defence cuts. Are these stories related? Let me suggest why they are, and why things might be about to get rather interesting – and fraught.

Suppose some senior ministers have concluded that the Coalition was a mistake and Dave isn't cutting it. Suppose too that several of them have been studying with great care the signs of discontent among backbenchers. Then consider the way the Home Secretary has been developing her profile, mixing uncharacteristically revealing interviews with sharp policy positions – attacking judges, toying with scrapping human rights laws. That she has lost weight is deemed to be significant. MPs notice that every week they get an email from her aides inviting them to the "surgery" she holds for MPs at the far end of the tearoom every Wednesday at 12:30 after PMQs. In Downing Street they certainly have noticed that her relationship with the Prime Minister is more strained: Dave made her, but now she challenges him, openly. I suspect No10 thinks Sunday's MoS story came from Mrs May; she in turn blames others – perhaps Downing Street.

Mr Hammond too is showing an independent streak as one of the ringleaders of the National Union of Ministers against cuts. He is using his knowledge of the Treasury to score points against his old department, and his former boss George Osborne. Come to think of it, isn't it curious that his broadside against more defence cuts on Saturday was followed by Mrs May's tilt against the European Convention on Human Rights on Sunday? You could be forgiven for wondering if the two hadn't coordinated their efforts.

In fact, you might think that between them they have the makings of a natural leadership ticket, Mrs May as leader and Mr Hammond as her Chancellor. I know, I know, you will think me fanciful. But if I had to bet, I would say that Mr Cameron is keeping a close eye on these two and asking himself if the danger to him comes not from the exuberance of Boris or the quixotic dreams of Adam Afriyie, but from the diligent, colourless, competent, steely loyalists around him who had once seemed to be so harmless. And if it were to emerge that Mr Hammond and Mrs May have been aligning their efforts in anticipation of a sudden unravelling, we should not be surprised. As I say, things could be about to get lively.