måndag 13 augusti 2012

Citat av James Montier

"Over the long term, conservative and careful investors are the ones still standing when the dust settles. [...] Only a moderate risk profile will permit investors to attain the cool head and future-vision which is necessary to reach the confidence level that only common sense can bring. [...]

the best long-term investment is one that is easy to hold, and easy to buy in moments of decline. [...] the best long-term investment, then, has something about it which builds confidence in the long-term future- even though the current moment may include aspects that have frightened other investors."

För det andra en låg skuldsättning: "You want a company that's able to make money without heavy financing needs. When companies need lots of borrowing to keep a business afloat, they also take on important vulnerabilities. If sales slow down- and there are always slow periods, even for the most stable and reliable businesses- heavy borrowers face the issue of being able to make their interest payments. Since the business can be lost entirely if loan payments aren't made, they naturally assume the highest priority in a company's expenditures. This means other aspects of the business may suffer: marketing, research and development, retaining valuable employees, making capital investments- all the things that keep a business moving forward and keep it a step ahead of the competition.

[...] When times are tough, the financially strong [companies] actually grow stronger. They're able to buy competitors that falter, choked by excessive financing and inadequate cash flow. They're able to take market share by beefing up marketing just when their competitors are forced to retrench. [...] They can develop new products that will make long-term difference. "

“I don’t regard repurchases as equivalent to
dividends, least of all in their permanence. Whilst dividends are generally
raised and lowered relatively slowly, repurchases seem to be used to distribute
excess earnings that are temporary in nature. Witness the explosion and
implosion of repurchases over the last few years”

“According to classical finance, investors should
be indifferent to whether a firm pays a dividend or retains the cash, because
retained cash should lead to higher future growth [...] However, the empirical
evidence on this proposition is not kind to classical finance. For instance,
looking at the US since 1995, the retained earnings yield (the earnings kept by
the firm in yield terms) was 3.6%. This should set a floor for future real
dividend growth. However, real dividend growth since 1955 has been just 0.4%
p.a.! “

Montier
refererar till andra undersökningar från USA:

* [during
1976-1999] firms with high capex growth
rates underperform those with low capex growth rates by around 7% p.a