October 8, 2018

Governors have the power to set the agenda on renewable
energy or throw up roadblocks to its progress. It's become an issue in several
races this year.

Some of the most consequential elections for climate policy
this fall could be the 36 governor's races, where a blue wave could position
clean energy advocates as a significant counterforce against the Trump
administration's fossil fuel agenda.

Republicans currently hold a near-record 33 governorships—a
lock on power that has served as a brake on clean energy progress in some
areas.

But the tide may be ready to turn. As many as a third of
those seats are considered toss-ups or are leaning Democratic in the upcoming
election, according to analysts like the Cook
Political Report and University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

Several of the Democratic contenders have 100 percent clean
energy commitments in their platforms, and many others support ambitious
renewable portfolio standards, net-metering incentives and other climate
policies.

The model for environmental advocates is New Jersey Gov.
Phil Murphy, a Democrat elected last November who has reversed several of the
policies of his Republican predecessor, Chris Christie. He reinstated New
Jersey's membership in the Northeast's carbon cap-and-trade system known as the
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and signed legislation to mandate that utilities
obtain 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2030. With
Murphy's first appointee, the state's Public Utility Commission now has a
Democratic majority and a mandate to come up with a new program to incentivize
rooftop solar.

"The most critical policies are set at the state
level," said Adam Browning, executive director of Vote Solar. "When
it comes to the renewable energy agenda, the future is very much on the ballot
this November."

These are some of the ways state policies could change:

In Nevada, New
Hampshire, New
Mexico and Maine,
the state legislatures passed renewable energy initiatives in the past year and
a half that had bipartisan support—but were vetoed by GOP governors.

In 38 states, governors have the power to appoint members
of public utility commissions—the
regulatory bodies that make decisions affecting billions of dollars of energy
infrastructure investment.

Many of the governors elected this fall will have a key role
in the reshaping of Congressional districts after the 2020 census.

Advocates and opponents of climate policies and clean energy
have been pouring millions of dollars into the races.

"For the first time in a decade, we could have enough
state legislatures to take proactive action on climate change and renewable
energy," said Leslie Martes, state electoral campaigns director for the
League of Conservation Voters, which is spending a
record $25 million on state races this year—more than doubling its
previous high mark set in 2016.

Freedom Partners Action Fund, one of the political vehicles
of the petrochemical billionaire Koch brothers, is blasting
the airwaves in Nevada to support GOP candidate Adam Laxalt and has
deployed aggressive
digital targeting techniques to bolster Republican Ron DeSantis in
Florida.

Here are a few of the close gubernatorial races to watch for
the future of clean energy policies:

Colorado

The Colorado race provides some of the country's starkest
contrasts on energy and the environment. Democratic nominee Jared Polis says he
wants the state to commit to 100 percent clean energy by 2040—which would be
the most ambitious timetable of any state. Republican nominee Walker Stapleton,
his opponent, argues that energy regulation carries high costs.

They are vying to succeed John Hickenlooper, a Democrat and
former Denver mayor, in a state that lately has leaned slightly toward
Democrats but remains winnable for Republicans. Colorado, which a history of
mining and oil production, today has a rapidly growing clean-energy economy and
a robust coalition of environmental advocates, and environmental issues are
often prominent there.

Walker Stapleton.

"For our climate, for our national security, for our
health, and for our economic growth, we need a bold goal of 100 percent
renewable energy," Polis, a member of Congress whose district includes
Boulder, said on his
campaign website.

Stapleton, Colorado's state treasurer and a second-cousin of
George W. Bush, says he wants to develop oil
and gas resources in a responsible way and says Polis' approach is bad
for the economy.

Michigan

Michigan's Democratic candidate for governor is Gretchen
Whitmer, a former state legislator and outspoken critic of the way the state
handled the lead poisoning crisis in Flint's water system. Whitmer, who also
has embraced a goal of 100 percent renewable energy, has made clean water
issues a key part of her platform.

Oil pipelines are another election issue in Michigan.
Whitmer says that if elected, she would announce an immediate plan to shut down
Enbridge's 65-year-old Line 5, which carries Canadian oil beneath the
environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac.

Her Republican opponent, Bill Schuette, the state's attorney
general, has portrayed himself as a moderate on energy issues, much as current
GOP Gov. Rick Snyder has done. Schuette stands out among Republican
gubernatorial candidates this cycle for touting
a record of protecting the environment. He brought charges against
officials involved in the Flint crisis and co-chaired a task force that called
for steps to reduce risks on Line 5, including a ban that was implemented on
transporting heavy crude.

Line 5's "days are numbered," Schuette has said
repeatedly. But the Michigan League of Conservation Voters is backing Whitmer,
and running digital ads criticizing
Schuette for not using the authority he has as the state's top legal officer to
shut down the pipeline.

New Mexico

The fracking boom is on track to deliver an
unprecedented $1.2
billion windfall and a difficult decision on the energy future to the
next governor of New Mexico. Try to keep the gravy train running, or curb the
state's fossil fuel dependency? As recently as 2016 and 2017, New Mexico
legislators were grappling with
budget shortfalls due to the boom-bust cycle in the oil business. The state
also faces rates of poverty and unemployment that are among the nation's
highest.

U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Democratic contender,
has said the revenue surge "dramatically highlights the need for
leadership" for a "renewable energy economy" and has pledged to
work for 50 percent renewable production in the state by 2030. Grisham, who had
an LCV voting record of 100 percent last year, wants to reverse the policies of
term-limited GOP Gov. Susana Martinez, who since 2015 has vetoed
three solar incentive bills passed by the Democratic-controlled state
legislature.

Recent polls show Grisham with a
solid lead over Republican U.S. Rep Steve Pearce, who owned and
operated an oilfield services company before he was elected to Congress 14
years ago. Pearce admits the state needs to diversify its revenue sources, but
he has blasted Grisham for what he said is "a plan to shut down this oil
boom and dry up critical funding for our state." The oil
and gas industry far and away has been Pearce's top political career
benefactor.

Nevada

In his bid for governor, Democrat Steve Sisolak touts his
record in helping to make Clark County, home to Las Vegas, a leader in solar
energy. In one ad, Sisolak
dons sunglasses and strolls through one of the eight solar fields that was
developed there during his tenure as county commission chairman. "Donald
Trump wants to pull the plug on renewables," he said. "As governor, I
want Nevada to lead the nation on clean energy."

Rooftop solar in Nevada only recently regained its footing
after the Democratic-controlled state legislature reinstated net-metering,
which had been curtailed in 2015 by the state's Public Utilities Commission.
GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval signed the measure reinstating the popular program, but
he vetoed legislation
that would have established a commuity solar program and boosted the state's
renewable energy standard—its requirement that utilities acquire a minimum
amount of electricity from clean sources. In November, voters will have a
chance to vote on a ballot initiative that would raise the standard to 50
percent by 2030—a measure Sisolak has said he supports.

Recent polls show Sisolak opening
up a lead over Republican candidate Adam Laxalt, the state's attorney
general, who appears to take a swipe at the renewable energy standard proposal
in the issues section of his
website. "Too often, the heavy hand of government is used to try
to force particular energy solutions on the entire population," he said.
"I will also oppose efforts to impose or expand costly and burdensome
mandates on energy providers, which only lead to higher prices that hurt
Nevada's families, and have a particularly damaging impact on those with lower
incomes."

Laxalt was one of a cadre of Republican attorneys general
who sued the Obama administration repeatedly over its environmental policies.
Although Nevada stayed officially neutral in the legal battle over the Clean
Power Plan—the Obama administration signature climate initiative—Laxalt filed
a brief challenging the legality of using the Clean Air Act to cut
carbon emissions from power plants. He also filed briefs opposing state investigations by
New York and Massachusetts into whether ExxonMobil misled investors on
climate change.

The Koch brothers' Freedom
Partners Action Fund is spending at least $1.5 million in TV ads to
bolster Laxalt for his "record of getting the job done by saving taxpayers
money as the state's attorney general," while bashing Sisolak for what it
called "crony politics." The Nevada Conservation League, an affiliate
of LCV, has launched a $1.15 million ad campaign slamming Laxalt for his ties
to the Koch brothers and Big Oil.

Maine

Wind energy developers are eager to see if this year's
gubernatorial election will mean a positive policy shift for renewables. GOP
Gov. Paul LePage, who views wind power as a "boutique" energy source,
has fought development as too costly and potentially damaging to tourism. He
imposed a moratorium on new wind turbine permits in January, just as
neighboring Massachusetts was rolling out its plan to boost renewables. LePage
set up a commission ostensibly
to study the issue, but in September one of its most outspoken members—a wind
energy foe—resigned, saying it had not held a single meeting.

The Democrat running to take LePage's place is Maine's
attorney general, Janet Mills, who has clashed with the governor repeatedly,
including over his wind moratorium. If elected governor, she has said, she
would allow it to expire.

"Maine has the resources and the expertise to lead the
entire nation in growing the clean energy economy, creating good-paying jobs,
cutting pollution and lowering energy costs," Mills has said. "What
we've been missing is a leader willing and ready to take advantage of those
opportunities."

Her opponent, Republican Shawn Moody, an auto body
entrepreneur who is making his first run for public office, has recruited
LePage's daughter, chief strategist and other staffers to work on his campaign
and has vowed to carry on LePage's legacy—making clear he has similar views on
renewables. "In the long term, renewable energy can play an important role
in this energy strategy, but we cannot subsidize high-priced sources of energy,
or special interests, at the expense of Maine people," he has said. Moody believes
every project should be reviewed to ensure that the state's energy focuses on
reducing costs, adding, "we must not permanently damage Maine's
landscape."

When asked in a televised debate this summer if he believed
humans contributed to the change in Maine's environment through climate change,
Moody said, "It's mostly," then paused before saying "no."

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a national Republican figure in
large part because of his anti-union stances, is running for a third term and faces
what may be his most formidable challenger in Tony Evers, a Democrat who is
state superintendent of schools.

Walker is notorious for his anti-regulatory agenda and for
his dependence
on the Koch brothers and other national conservative groups.
Environmental advocates have a long list of grievances with him, including for
his lack of action to fight the growth of toxic algae on the state's lakes and
lack of support for renewable energy. Walker has overseen a "failure of
state government" to care for the environment, wrote Spencer
Black, a former Democratic state legislator. "We need a governor who will
help, not hinder, efforts to keep our waters clean and our summers
enjoyable."

Evers has said he
will improve environmental protection and take steps to better develop
the clean-energy economy if elected. On those issues, and on others, he argues
that he will bring common sense and a clear departure from Walker. More so than
most other governor's races, this is a referendum on an incumbent.

Short Takes

In Illinois, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, a
Democrat who has embraced a 100 percent
renewable energy commitment, has a commanding lead in his bid to
unseat GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent
Republican governor.

Most political odds-makers see New Hampshire's
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu as likely to keep his seat, although his
lead over former state Sen. Molly Kelly shrunk this summer. In June,
Sununu vetoed bipartisan legislation to incentivize biomass and solar energy. Kelly,
who sponsored the state's first net metering bill in 2013, has called for
prioritizing renewable energy and efficiency.

In Ohio, Republican contender Mike DeWine, who has
been an elected official for decades, including a U.S. senator, has said little
about his stances on energy and environment issues. But his record includes
votes in the Senate against oil drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge
and for repeal of oil company tax credits, allowing him to position himself as
a moderate, as outgoing GOP John Kasich did. Democrat Rich Cordray, a former
attorney general and the first director of the Federal Consumer Protection
Bureau, has noted that Ohio fell behind on clean energy when its legislature
halted renewable energy targets from 2014 to 2016. Cordray, who has pledged to
double Ohio's renewable energy and energy efficiency targets by 2025, is
running neck-and-neck with DeWine.