Originally Posted by Winterfart
Today is considered to be the "peak" for the virus in France, after that we'll start to have less contagions.
The lockdown seems efficient.

I think what they probably mean is the peak of the cases during the lockdown. With the lockdown in place, the infection rate slows, but it takes a while for all the previously infected cases and their close contacts to manifest, so you get a peak, and then a dip. The trouble is, once the lockdown ends, the epidemic is very likely to continue until the majority of the population has been infected, or a vaccine is deployed. Both of which are likely to take a long time.

Originally Posted by Eye
Good news: my strength is back! No more symptoms. Anxiety is gone. Sun is shining. Life is great.

Thanks everybody for your kind messages. I hope you are/will be alright, good luck to those being badly affected by events. I sincerely hope that the situation in the world will improve soon. Take care, stay healthy!

Originally Posted by Ripper
I think what they probably mean is the peak of the cases during the lockdown. With the lockdown in place, the infection rate slows, but it takes a while for all the previously infected cases and their close contacts to manifest, so you get a peak, and then a dip. The trouble is, once the lockdown ends, the epidemic is very likely to continue until the majority of the population has been infected, or a vaccine is deployed. Both of which are likely to take a long time.

Yeah, I'm no epidemiologist, but I talk to some folks in the NHS who definitely know the score, and deal with the non-public reports. There is no expectation of this being anything but a long, grueling battle over the coming months. TBH, I think a lot of the more optimistic projections are driven by political and economic concerns, not what any medical folks on the ground believe.

That's wrong.
COVID-19 dies fast on 40+°C. Dunno how it responds to low temps but if spring in northern part of the planet gets superwarm (thanks to global pollution), COVID is goner there.
There is a secondary reason why it's wrong and that's postlockdown time. Once an area is confirmed "clean" of virus, it still needs at least 14 days of disallowed travels outside. Travels that were for sakes of: just because. The very reason COVID is spreading is idiotic behavior of certain percentage of people who deliberately accepted to get infected then carry the virus all around the planet. Reckless? Superman syndrome? Weren't thinking? Ignorant? No, they were idiots. All of them.

The vaccine cannot happen until late this year. It's effectivenes will remain questionable just like with different vaccines against Yersinia pestis bacteria (Bubonic plague).
Don't put too much hopes in it. Concentrate on prevention with current means that could apply for any pandemia.

About politicians and economists, don't even bother to listen to those bullshitters in a crisis like this. They are all completely ignorant in the matter and can spill only fake news and misinformation.
If you need answers, talk to your doc.

Originally Posted by joxer
That's wrong.
COVID-19 dies fast on 40+°C. Dunno how it responds to low temps but if spring in northern part of the planet gets superwarm (thanks to global pollution), COVID is goner there.

The virus on surfaces survives for less time at higher temperatures, but is by no means "a goner". The primary route for transmission is close contact, and that can occur just as well in hotter climates. I can assure you the people in the hotter countries are well aware of this. The virus does not simply die off in its hosts because it's hot outside.

Originally Posted by joxer
There is a secondary reason why it's wrong and that's postlockdown time. Once an area is confirmed "clean" of virus, it still needs at least 14 days of disallowed travels outside. Travels that were for sakes of: just because. The very reason COVID is spreading is idiotic behavior of certain percentage of people who deliberately accepted to get infected then carry the virus all around the planet.

The problem is, confirming an area as clean would require testing the whole population at once, which is not really a feasible project. What makes covid so dangerous is that it is infectious while people are non-symptomatic, and no-one has immunity, meaning its spread is all but inevitable. Irresponsible behavior worsens the rate of the spread, but it is highly improbable that we can stop it. The only way it is likely to stop now is when a large percentage of the population has contracted it and has immunity, and later, hopefully, when a vaccine can protect others.

Originally Posted by Cacheperl
To add to the "dies at 40+°C" thingy: It sure does, after a while. That's why we develop a fever afterall. Problem is, until we get there, our body is nice and cosy for the virus. :/

Anyways, it might still decrease the spread a bit. So the weather may actually help to reduce the load on the health systems for a while.

Yes, it's hoped to be somewhat improved by the warmth and different behaviour patterns in the summer. One of our predictions expects to build to a severe peak in May/June, and then recede somewhat, before a possible second wave in the autumn/winter.

The trouble is, pandemics often don't follow the seasonality patterns of their related viruses. Flu obviously tends to be seasonal, but the Spanish flu started fairly quietly in the spring, then moved slowly in the early summer, before exploding in late summer/autumn.

What I've read is that new seasonal strains like (potentially) COVID-19 tend to linger longer before the summer lull. So any decrease many not manifest until May or June. After that it picks up again in September. If we're lucky, we'll get a three month lull to prepare for the next cycle.

Today is considered to be the "peak" for the virus in France, after that we'll start to have less contagions.
The lockdown seems efficient.

Servants serve. And the current crop is busy telling stories to entertain the master. The master is bored, 10 days in and they want out.

That story of peak is mere entertainment, it is meant to alleviate the master's discomfort and prepare for increased states in crisis. The crisis is very young.

That peak thing means nothing. Over the last day, France added 3000 new cases while clearing out 700 cases. It is only when the number of cleared cases is steadily higher than the number of new cases that stuff is going to mean.

Originally Posted by joxer
That's wrong.
COVID-19 dies fast on 40+°C. Dunno how it responds to low temps but if spring in northern part of the planet gets superwarm (thanks to global pollution), COVID is goner there.

Considering that one consequence of the virus through large diminution of human activity is to have reduced pollution, better this not to affect global temperature changes. Everyone must go out to maintain the level of pollution.

Just so you know.
COVID does not know anything nor care about money. All it cares is that you travel (or historically escape from center of the disease and spread it) instead of being at one place. It will equally infect homeless people and you then kill those with already weakened immunity system, not caring if your account holds 0 or billions of dollars. Forget pyramid schemes. This is not a disease leathal only in poor countries because they can't afford the overexpensive cure, there is no cure.

-- Toka Koka

Last edited by Myrthos; March 28th, 2020 at 14:34.
Reason: Removed politics part

Anyone else having a hard time trying to have your parents take this seriously? My parents are 81 and they work out every day. They were still going to the gym till they were all closed down. Still going out to eat until they were shut down.

Now they have been walking at large supermarkets to get their exercise. They are mad because I won't let them in my house to use my workout equipment. My wife has had symptoms and told them they can't come over until she's healthy and clear for 14 days.

You get to a certain age and people are going to do what they want. They both have their masters and are highly educated but are stubborn as mules.

My parents (also early 80's) own a large plot of land (72 acres) in the woods with a cabin so they are hunkered down out in the remote area with my brother and his wife. Other than food trips (and with a 6 month supply in freezers and cellar storage food runs are minimal) they aren't doing anything. But then they don't really have to since they have plenty to do at home and private land. Envy them a bit since I live downtown. It's a very small town luckily but I live on a street with condos and apartments so more busy.

My parents are more worried about grandchildren primarily.

In talking to co-workers and friends some parents are calm but practical, others are not wanting to live in fear are do what they want and say if their time has come it has come. Others said their parents are hiding inside and are very fearful.

Comes down to personality I guess.

-- Character is centrality, the impossibility of being displaced or overset. - Ralph Waldo Emerson