Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Despite never winning at Michigan International Speedway, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book have installed Jimmie Johnson as the 7 to 2 opening favorite to win this Sunday’s Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. In Johnson’s last three Michigan starts he hasn’t even cracked the top-15 yet still maintains his solid NASCAR loop rating at the track of 111.0 just because he’s led multiple times over the last four years the rating system has been in place.

Johnson has a 16.0 career average finish on the track over his 16 starts with only two top-five finishes which comes as a surprise because how dominant he’s been over his career at the sister-track of California, a track with nearly the same layout.

The best value on the board may be Carl Edwards who has an amazing NASCAR loop rating of 112.5 that tops all drivers. Edwards is listed 20 to 1 this week just because of the horrendous slump he’s mired in, but if there is any track that can get him out of the funk, Michigan would be it. He’s a two-time winner on the track and has an all-time track best career average finish of 6.1. Last season, while in the midst of a similar run of mediocrity, Edwards still managed to scrape up two fourth-place finishes in each of the Michigan races.

Edwards’ teammate, Matt Kenseth, will also be a contender this week and lead the Ford campaign at their home track. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Michigan and is listed at 20 to 1 as well.

Kyle Busch is listed at 5 to 1 based solely on the current run he’s on and not so much about what he’s done at Michigan in the past. He’s averaged a finish of 17.5 in his 10 career starts at Michigan with only one top-five, a second-place finish in the fall of 2008.

Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin are listed at 7 to 1 which could be considered good value despite what appear to be low odds. Both drivers have been terrific on all the down force tracks this season and as for Hamlin, no one is hotter on the circuit. Gordon finished runner-up in both races last season and has two career wins on the track.

Last seasons winner of this race, Mark Martin, is listed at 20 to 1. Martin hasn’t looked close to matching the type of performances he had last season, but it’s always a good idea to take the previous years winner into serious consideration within any wagering strategy.

ROBERTS NASCAR NOTES on Radio
Be sure to listen to my Post Practice report and preview for each race on Prime Sports Network following the final practice sessions three hours after happy hour. Listen live or at your leisure; all shows are archived. Host Greg DePalma and I will review each of the top drivers and steer you in a direction you should be going based on past/recent history along with critical practice information for your NASCAR Fantasy teams or wagers.

Yesterday on Nascar.com I went out on a really long limb and predicted Carl to win at MIS. I credited you "MR" for providing data and info. Link is just FYI about Carl/Roush drivers.http://www.nascar.com/2010/news/features/06/09/loop.data.michigan.1/index.html