Pew: Romney Takes 4 Point Lead, Beats Obama on Favorability

In a breathtaking turnaround, Governor Mitt Romney has erased is 8 point deficit in a Pew poll taken in mid-September, and is now four points ahead of the president, 49-45%. It’s important to note that this poll is of likely voters and was taken after Romney obliterated Obama n their first debate. Also, of the four days in the poll sample, three of those include the Friday jobs report.

67% of Romney’s support is strong, up from 56%. This ties him with Obama. But in the area of intensity or “given a lot of thought to the election,” Romney has a 15 point lead: 82-65%.

The worst two data points for Obama, however, are these:

Obama has lost his advantage among women. Both are tied at 47%. Last month Obama had an 18% advantage.

Obama’s even lost his favorability advantage. Romney’s hit 50%, Obama’s sunk to 49%.

What we’re seeing in many polls — both state and national — is Obama slipping further below the 50% mark. Post-convention, Obama was at or near that vital (for an incumbent) marker pretty frequently. Now we’re seeing him at 45%, 47%, 48% again. Today’s Gallup tracking poll put Obama at 50%, but that’s registered voters. Which means he’s probably at 47% or 48%.

Thirty days out and polling at these numbers is the last place an incumbent wants to be.

One note of warning. This sample of likely voters has a R+3 skew, which feels optimistic to me.