The $20 Computer

"Computers will be made of funky coloured plastic and will cost $20.They
will fit into your pocket and be easier to use than a TV remote control."
[Unpredictables - Sep. 1999]

It is always dangerous to predict the future of Information Technology.
However there are trends:

An increasing use of the Internet as a storage and information sharing
mechanism.

A movement towards pocket-sized devices for recording and storing
information.

A trend towards cheaper communications charges and cheaper Internet
access. (Some people predict that in a few years Internet access charges
will drop to zero.)

A movement towards open standards for operating-systems and data
formats, to facilitate efficient information sharing.

The development of wireless protocols for data transfer. (You've
seen the ads about receiving email on your mobile phone.)

Increasing concern about data security.

When I put these trends together I get a clearer picture. I'd call this
ubiquitous distributed computing.

Increasing use will be made of pocket-sized devices - but I don't feel
they will replace the desktop-sized PC. (Notice I say 'desktop-sized PC'
not 'desktop PC.') For high-activity wordprocessing, etc. you will need
a full-sized keyboard (leaving aside speech-recognition for the moment
- we'll need advances in AI before that is perfected) & a large high-resolution
screen. This PC will not be a PC as we know it.

Supercheap wireless broadband Internet access will make the 'permanently-connected'
PC the rule rather than the exception. As well as using the Internet to
access information we will probably choose to store our files on a secure
server out there rather than on whatever acts like our local harddrive.
(We'll pay for so many "gigs" of storage and let them handle back-ups,
virus- protection, etc. Secure in the knowledge that if our machine gets
stolen - our data is still securely held out there in cyberspace. Also
secure in the knowledge that we can sue the pants off our storage providers
if any of our data gets lost!)

Since many of the functions of the traditional desktop PC are being
moved 'offsite' - including data storage and probably even processing
power ("let me borrow your organisation's supercomputer for a few nanoseconds")
- the devices themselves will become much simpler and hence much cheaper.

I predict that the next 10-15 years will see a reconstruction of the
concept of the Personal Computer - from a stand-alone big-grunt data-
processing device, to an access device or gateway to the worldwide computing
network.

(Of course your $20 Internet-interface device will have the remnants
of a traditional stand- alone PC - maybe a Gig or so of memory, and a
few Gigs of storage. It'll probably be capable of functioning sans Internet
- at least this generation's machine. Our grandchildren will probably
be much more comfortable entrusting everything to the electronic ether.)