1) Research Articles on Forest and Climate Change

Abstract: The article considers the potential for community-based forest management (of existing forests) in developing countries, as a future CDM strategy, to sequester and mitigate carbon and to claim credits in future commitment periods. This kind of forestry is cost-effective, and should bring many more benefits to local populations than do afforestation and reforestation, thus contributing more strongly to sustainable development. However, community forest management projects are small-scale, and the transaction costs associated with justifying them as climate projects are likely to be high. A research project being carried out in five developing countries is testing carbon measurement and monitoring methods which can be carried out by community members with very little formal education, which should greatly reduce these transaction costs. Using hand-held computers with GIS capability and attached GPS, villagers with 4 years of primary education are able to accurately map their forest resource and input biomass data from sample plots into a program which calculates carbon values.

Can the EU emission trading scheme support CDM forestry?

Abstract: The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI), beginning with the second period of the European Union's emission trading scheme (ETS) in its report due in July 2006. Temporary credits from afforestation and reforestation under the CDM are seen by many as posing a technical problem for their use under the ETS. This article summarizes three feasible, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives for achieving the integration of such temporary credits in the European emissions trading market starting in 2008. The first proposal integrates tCERs and lCERs (temporary credits) into the EU ETS by allowing for their direct use for compliance purposes. The second proposal builds on the idea of swapping temporary credits for EU allowances (EUAs) by Member States. The third proposal would not require a political decision at the EU level. Instead supportive Member States or private carbon fund operators would agree to swap temporary credits for the CERs or ERUs they hold in their accounts. All three solutions would be linked to a risk-mitigation strategy based on levying a fee or fixing an exchange rate, which would allow governments to hedge the risk of losing temporary credits.

Abstract: Accurate estimation of the storage and spatial distribution of carbon in forest ecosystems is essential when studying the role of these ecosystems in global warming. Appropriate methods and reliable data are thus necessary. In this study, we developed a precise, unifying estimation method and assessed seven components of carbon storage in a cool-temperate deciduous forest ecosystem in central Japan. This method is based on detailed dividing of carbon pools in forest ecosystem, unifying, and systemic survey and estimate for each divided carbon component using precise and suitable methods, respectively. Data and methods used include tree census and allometry method between diameter at breast height (DBH)–biomass for tree, spectral reflectance measurement using a handy-type spectroradiometer for floor vegetation (Sasa), standing dead tree census (diameter at breast height and tree height) and allometry method between DBH–biomass and geometric calculation, detailed dry weight surveys for litter and coarse woody debris, detailed soil profile survey using profile digging and profile sampler measurement. The total carbon storage in the ecosystem equaled 440.6 t C ha−1. Of the aboveground mass, 71.4 t C ha−1 was stored in living trees, 5.3 t in standing dead trees, and 2.8 t in Sasa senanensis (the understory vegetation). Of the belowground mass, 19.6 t C ha−1was stored in living roots, 1.8 t in the roots of the standing dead tree, 15.3 t in plant litter, 6.1 t in coarse woody debris, and 318.3 t in the mineral soil. Carbon was stored unevenly throughout the ecosystem, and storage varied as a function of topography. The minimum and maximum amounts of stored carbon were 125.1 and 726.9 t C ha−1, respectively; the highest and lowest amounts were found in a valley (average, 556.7 t C ha−1) and on a west-facing slope (average, 381.3 t C ha−1), respectively. Compared with other ecosystems, carbon storage in this forest ecosystem was higher in the soil and lower in the vegetation. The results also demonstrate the importance of gravels and stones in the soil and of standardizing the soil sampling depth.

Abstract: In the present study, the suitability of optical ASTER satellite data (with 9 spectral bands) for estimating the biomass of boreal forest stands in mineral soils was tested. The remote sensing data were analysed and tested together with standwise forest inventory data. Stand volume estimates were converted to aboveground tree biomass using biomass expansion factors, and the aboveground biomass of understory vegetation was predicted according to the stand age. Non-linear regression analysis and neural networks were applied to develop models for predicting biomass according to standwise ASTER reflectance. All ASTER bands appeared to be sensitive to tree biomass, in particular the green band 1. The relative estimation errors (RMSEr) of the total aboveground biomass of the forest stands were 44.7% and 41.0% using multiple regression analysis and neural networks, respectively. Although the estimation errors remained large, the predictions were relatively accurate in comparison to previous studies. Furthermore, the predictions obtained here were significantly close to the municipality-level mean values provided by the National Forest Inventory of Finland.

Abstract: The maintenance of soil organic carbon (SOC) in terrestrial ecosystems is critical for long-term productivity. Simulation models of SOC dynamics are valuable tools in predicting the impacts of climate on carbon storage and developing management strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, however, their utility is generally reduced due to need for specific data. The SOCRATES model is a simple process based representation of soil SOC dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, which requires minimal data inputs and specifically designed to examine the impact of land use and land use change on soil carbon storage. SOCRATES was successful in predicting SOC change at eighteen long-term crop, pasture and forestry trials from North America, Europe and Australasia. These trials ranged from 8 to 86 years in duration, over a wide range of climates and soil types with annual changes in SOC ranging from −3.0 to 4.2%.

Climate effects of global land cover change

Abstract: When changing from grass and croplands to forest, there are two competing effects of land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to warming and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate. We have performed simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We find that global replacement of current vegetation by trees would lead to a global mean warming of 1.3°C, nearly 60% of the warming produced under a doubled CO2 concentration, while replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4°C. It has been previously shown that boreal forestation can lead to warming; our simulations indicate that mid-latitude forestation also could lead to warming. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming.

Environmental Modeling and Assessment; published online 9 December 2005

Abstract: Climatic change will result in great changes in vegetation. In this paper, a biogeographical model, the BIOME1, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME1 was validated according to the climate–vegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME1 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Then, the validated BIOME1 was used to predict the distribution of vegetation of China under two climatic scenarios produced by a Regional Circulation Model, RegCM2/CN. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the boreal, temperate deciduous and evergreen and tropical forests, a large expansion of tropical dry forest/savanna and reduction of tundra on the Tibetan Plateau. Three vulnerable regions sensitive to climate changes are pointed out, i.e., Northern China, the Tibetan Plateau and Southwestern China (mainly Hengduan Mountains in Yunnan Province and west of Sichuan Province). In recent decades, China has experienced dramatic industrialization and population growth, which exert strong pressure on the environment of China. The consequences of climate changes warrant more attention for maintaining a sustainable environment for China.

Abstract: The assessment of a forest resource in national inventories provides a firm basis for the calculation of biomass and carbon (C) stocks of forests. Biomass expansion factors (BEFs) and conversion factors provide a robust and simple method of converting from forest tree stem volume to total forest biomass. These factors should be constructed on the basis of nationally specific data in order to take account of regional differences in growth rates, management practices, etc. The objective of this study is to improve the accuracy of biomass estimation by calculating a range of age-dependant BEFs from representative data that more accurately describe the allometry of present forests. The results from this study show that the allocation of biomass to compartments in forest stands and throughout a rotation varies considerably, and that the use of BEFs for the calculation of C stocks in forests of sub-timber dimensions is highly impractical.

Future area burned in Canada

Abstract. Historical relationships between weather, the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system components and area burned in Canadian ecozones were analysed on a monthly basis in tandem with output from the Canadian and the Hadley Centre GCMs to project future area burned. Temperature and fuel moisture were the variables best related to historical monthly area burned with 36–64% of the variance explained depending on ecozone. Our results suggest significant increases in future area burned although there are large regional variations in fire activity. This was especially true for the Canadian GCM where some ecozones show little change in area burned, however area burned was not projected to decrease in any of the ecozones modelled. On average, area burned in Canada is projected to increase by 74–118% by the end of this century in a 3 × CO2 scenario. These estimates do not explicitly take into account any changes in vegetation, ignitions, fire season length, and human activity (fire management and land use activities) that may influence area burned. However, the estimated increases in area burned would have significant ecological, economic and social impacts for Canada.

Changes in carbon pools associated with a land-use gradient in the Dry Chaco, Argentina

Bonino, E.E. (2005)

Forest Ecology and Management; available online 2 December 2005

Abstract: Little is known about the contribution of arid and semiarid regions to the carbon balance at a global scale. The lack of information is especially noticeable for the Gran Chaco, which covers an area of about 1,200,000 km2 in South America. This study quantified carbon pools and their changes along a land-use gradient in the Dry Chaco, the driest portion of the Gran Chaco, measured in the aboveground biomass and in soils (20 cm depth). The work was conducted in the Chancaní reserve, where the best preserved forests of the region are found, and in surrounding areas, including a primary forest, a secondary forest and shrubby grasslands. Previous works indicate that the entire area was originally covered by forests similar to those found at the Chancaní reserve, and that the land-use changes occurred at least 30 years prior to this study. Total aboveground carbon stock, which comprises the total amount of living organic matter in trees and shrubs, was 30.31 Mg C ha−1 in the primary forest, which was reduced to 8.38 Mg C ha−1 in the secondary forest and to 1.37 Mg C ha−1 in shrubby grasslands. Carbon stock in the tree component decreased drastically between the primary and the secondary forests from 25.40 to 5.11 Mg C ha−1. The component described as saplings of trees and shrubs also decreased significantly among the three communities from 4.91 Mg C ha−1 in the primary forest to 3.27 Mg C ha−1 in the secondary forest and to only 1.37 Mg C ha−1 in the shrubby grasslands. No significant differences were detected in the carbon content per unit area of soil, although it decreased from 34.59 Mg C ha−1 in the primary forest to 28.04 Mg C ha−1 in the secondary forest and to 22.93 Mg C ha−1 in the shrubby grassland, with a significant increase in soil bulk density in the disturbed communities. Therefore, differences in carbon stocks between communities were primarily the result of differences in vegetation biomass, whereas changes in the land-use gradient analyzed had a lower impact on soils. Nevertheless, soil constitutes the largest pool, and more severe ecological disturbances could lead to important changes in net carbon storage.

Abstract: We examined carbon export in whole logs and carbon accumulation as coarse woody debris (CWD) produced from forest damage during all phases of the first and second year of a certified reduced impact logging (RIL) timber harvest in southern Amazonia. Our measurements included a 100% survey of roads and log decks, assessment of canopy damage and ground disturbance in skid trails and tree-fall gaps, and measurement of carbon exported from the site in logs. Log deck and road construction crushed one and five trees in the 10–60 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) class per hectare logged, disturbed areas of 24 and 100 m2 ha−1, respectively, and together disturbed about 1% of the forest. On average 1.1–2.6 trees ha−1 were harvested over the two years. Logged gaps constituted the greatest disturbance on an area basis (4–10% of the forest) and CWD generation (1.9–4.4 Mg ha−1 logged). In gaps, felled trees severed or crushed 10 trees ≥10 cm DBH per tree logged, which corresponded to 1.7 Mg ha−1 of CWD per tree logged. Crown height – measured from the first bifurcation to the top of the crown – rather than tree height was the better predictor of gap size formed from tree felling (R2 = 0.41). Logging activities significantly reduced leaf area in roads, log decks and gaps, with the greatest reduction (48%) in log decks and least in logged gaps and roads (28–33%) compared to undisturbed forest. A total of 37 species were harvested, with 36% of the total trees harvested and 48% of the total carbon exported from the site in three of the most common species. Logging damage produced 4.9–8.8 Mg C ha−1 logged of CWD from all phases of the operation. Carbon export in whole logs (2.1–3.7 Mg C ha−1 logged) represented 1–3% of the total standing forest carbon ≥10 cm DBH (138 Mg C ha−1). The mean carbon ratio (per hectare logged) of C in CWD to C exported in logs was 2.4. The disturbance, damage, carbon export and CWD data we present advances understanding of the effect of selective logging on tropical forest dynamics of the Amazon Basin. Our results indicate that certified timber harvest in Amazonia under RIL is a viable forest management option to reduce damage and CWD production compared to conventional logging (CL) practices; however, the benefits of disturbance reduction from RIL relative to CL are only realized at greater volumes of timber extraction.

Methane emissions from terrestrial plants under aerobic conditions

Keppler, F. - Hamilton, J.T.G. - Braß, M. - Roeckmann, T. (2006)

Nature 439 (12/01/2006): 187-191

Abstract: Methane is an important greenhouse gas and its atmospheric concentration has almost tripled since pre-industrial times. It plays a central role in atmospheric oxidation chemistry and affects stratospheric ozone and water vapour levels. Most of the methane from natural sources in Earth’s atmosphere is thought to originate from biological processes in anoxic environments. Here we demonstrate using stable carbon isotopes that methane is readily formed in situ in terrestrial plants under oxic conditions by a hitherto unrecognized process. Significant methane emissions from both intact plants and detached leaves were observed during incubation experiments in the laboratory and in the field. If our measurements are typical for short-lived biomass and scaled on a global basis, we estimate a methane source strength of 62–236 Tg yr21 for living plants and 1–7 Tg yr21 for plant litter (1 Tg 5 1012 g). We suggest that this newly identified source may have important implications for the global methane budget and may call for a reconsideration of the role of natural methane sources in past climate change.

Summary: The results of a study by Keppler et.al. (2006)could affect attractiveness and returns of CDM carbon offset projects and future negotiations about carbon sinks in the second commitment period. If confirmed independently, they represent a paradigm shift regarding methane formation in plant physiology. When extrapolated, net greenhouse gas removals by growing forests, e.g. existing forests or forests created by afforestation projects under the Clean Development Mechanism, could be reduced by maximally 4-8% though aerobic emissions of methane by trees. Net actual effects are likely to be lower. However, transposing and up-scaling results obtained in containers on small samples, seedlings, and on only one tree species to global forests and other biomes is not a valid “first estimate”, but at best a hypothesis which should be tested. Results do not invalidate the role of forests as carbon sinks; they also do not support the view that deforestation mitigates global warming via reduced emissions of methane.

2) Forest and Climate Change News

'Carbon sinks' drain water

The rush to plant forests to soak up carbon dioxide, which contributes to global warming, could cause as many problems as it solves, with new research showing they can reduce local water supplies by up to 50per cent. An international study on the use of forest plantations as carbon sinks has found that while intensive plantations can help mitigate the effects of global warming, they can also sap streamflows and cause salinity.

Climate Change Fungus is Wiping out Frogs

An infectious fungus aggravated by global warming has killed entire populations of frogs in Central and South America and driven some species to extinction, scientists said on Wednesday. In research that showed the effects of rising temperatures on delicate ecosystems, a team of researchers found that a warming atmosphere encouraged the spread of a fungus that has wiped out species of harlequin frogs and golden toads.

3) Forest and Climate Change Info & Events

Chile: International workshop on AR CDM

Valdivia, Chile. 11.-13. 2006

Together with the Chilean Instituto forestal (INFOR) and IUFRO, FAO organised a capacity building seminar on forests and climate change with Latin American outreach. Topics included basics, rules and modalities for afforestation and reforestation projects under the clean development mechanism, the international carbon market as well as procedures for the formulation of concrete projects.

Ecuador: Capacity building seminar on Climate change and management of natural resources

Quito, Ecuador. 14.-18.11.2005

The Ministry for Environment of Ecuador, FAO, COSUDE and CORDELIM organised a capacity building seminar on Climate change and management of natural resources. The seminar took place in Quito, Ecuador and pursued to deal with two topics (1) Adaptation to climate change, especially forestry and (2) Afforestation and reforestation projects under the Clean development mechanism.

Revised guidelines for completing CDM-AR-PDD and CDM-AR-NM

In accordance with the revised guidelines for completing CDM-AR-PDD and CDM-AR-NM, agreed by the CDM Executive Board at its last meeting, the respective forms CDM-AR-PDD and CDM-AR-NM, have been modified and posted on the UNFCCC CDM web site at the “documents section”.

12th PhD workshop on International Climate Policy

On April 28th and 29th, the 12th PhD workshop on International Climate Policy will be held at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. This is an opportunity for PhD students in the field of international climate policy to present ideas, interact with other PhD students, and get informal feedback on their work. Participation is free, travel costs need to be borne by the participants.

4) New Publications

Key terms used in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the

land use, land use change and forestry sector

Cowie, A - Pingoud, K. - Robertson, K. - Schlamadinger, B. (2005)

Occasional paper, IEA Bioenergy Task 38

Abstract: This paper has been prepared by IEA Bioenergy Task 38 with the aim of providing an overview of interpretations of key terms related to land use, land-use change and forest, and harvested wood products. It represents a consensus achieved by experts participating in the Task, but does not necessarily represent the views of the countries that participate in the Task. In addition to the main text, the paper provides an alternative interpretation of key definitions, which represents the views of the author listed there. As with every specialty area, specific terminology has been developed and utilised in communications relating to greenhouse gas reporting and accounting. Some terms have been adopted from common usage but defined differently from their common meanings outside of this context. In some cases, though the same definitions of key term are used, interpretations differ. We have perceived that some discussions, such as deliberations over reporting of harvested wood products in national GHG inventories, have been complicated by different understandings of terminology. This paper collates definitions of key terms commonly used in relation to greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, and highlights areas of ambiguity and divergent interpretations. Misunderstanding and differences over interpretations of key terminology can be a major barrier to effective communication; our intention is to facilitate clear communication between the many players participating in the various processes dealing with estimation and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. The Paper is scoped to collate existing and accepted definitions that apply to the LULUCF sector, constrained to those used under the UNFCCC and related documents, and discussion of key concepts over which there is currently divergence of interpretation.

Forestry Projects under the CDM: Procedures, Experiences and Lessons Learned

Kägi, W. – Schöne, D. (2005)

FAO Forests and Climate Change Working Paper 3

Abstract: This paper provides guidance on how to formulate new baseline and monitoring methodologies for CDM A/R (Clean Development Mechanism, Afforestation and Reforestation) projects. The analysis puts together lessons learned from baseline and monitoring methodologies which were submitted for approval so far and helps project developers to avoid mistakes made in those earlier methodologies. The paper is structured as follows: first the general rules of the development and acceptance of CDM baseline methodologies and CDM A/R projects are lined out and thereby the most important terms are explained. Secondly, an overview on CDM A/R projects and baseline methodologies which have been submitted so far is given. Thirdly, the reasons for the rejection of baseline and monitoring Background, Concepts, Methodologies and Procedures methodologies are analysed. This leads to the final part of the paper with lessons learned.

Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry: Doctoral (PhD) position

Department of Biogeochemical Processes in the frame of the EU project „NitroEurope“.

Period: 2 years, start in March 2006 with the option for extension of up to one year.

Tasks: Development of a semi-empirical model based on non-linear statistics and process knowledge describing the spatio-temporal patterns of soil-borne N2O emissions in Europe in response to weather, N input and management. The model will be integrated in a modular multi-component assessment tool for nitrogen and greenhouse gas policies.

Requirements: Diploma or equivalent qualification in a relevant field such as biology, ecology, soil science or mathematics; background in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling; good skills and experience in complex numerical modelling and statistics, and a programming language, preferably Fortran; fluency in English.

Applications should contain certificates, CV, publication list and the names, telephone numbers and email addresses of at least two referees. They should be sent by email before February, 8th, 2006, to Annette Freibauer: afreib@bgc-jena.mpg.de

Ph.D. graduate position at UNB, Canada

Objective is to explore the potential of a variety of satellite images as forest fuel moisture mapping tool over Canadian boreal forests or for mapping crop drought over Canadian Prairies. The images tested in the thesis will be NOAA-AVHRR, MODIS, RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2. One of the thesis objectives will be to build an analytical model to estimate evapotranspiration from these satellite data.

The ideal candidate should be highly motivated and should have a good background in image processing and in remote sensing physics.

The thesis should begin as soon as possible.

Candidates should email a letter of motivation, their curriculum vitae (including their list of publications), and transcripts and arrange to have three letters of reference sent to

IIASA’s Program on Risk and Vulnerability (RAV): Researcher position

The long-term aim of the IIASA Program on Risk and Vulnerability (RAV) is to conduct conceptual and applied analyses that not only contribute to decreasing the risk and vulnerability of societies and ecosystems but also promote their adaptation and resilience to stresses imposed or aggravated by global-change phenomena.

Tasks: Conduct conceptual and applied research within existing RAV projects (team work); • Initiate and lead new projects aimed at decreasing risks and vulnerability to global change; • Prepare research proposals (also in cooperation with other IIASA programs); • Publish in relevant journals/books and other media (e.g., press, internet); • Present research results in international fora; • Build strong networks.

For further information about this position, please contact the Program Leader Joanne Bayer (bayer@iiasa.ac.at).

6) Websites of interest

Operational-scale forest carbon budget model

The Government of Canada and the Canadian Model Forest Network (CMFN) are pleased to announce the availability of the Operational-Scale Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) Version 1.0. This model of forest carbon stocks, stock changes and greenhouse gas emissions and removals has been developed by the Carbon Accounting Team of the Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada with support from the CMFN. It builds on data used in forest management planning (inventories, growth and yield curves, etc.) and can be applied to forested landscapes from single stands to large regions. Although designed for Canada, it can be adapted to other countries.

For details and instructions on how to download a free copy of the model and user's guide via the internet, please visit our website: http://www.carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca. Tutorials are included under the Help menu in the model.

The objective of CLIM-FO-L is to be a forum for sharing current information and experiences about climate change and forestry amongst experts and non-experts. CLIM-FO-L will send periodically to subscribers synopsis of contributions, indicating how to obtain more detailed information on the topic. CLIM-FO-L is a service provided by the FAO Forest Resources Division, Forest Conservation Service (FORC).

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