Oh well. So the World Cup is over before it starts for the U.S. National Team. For the second time in the last three tournaments, the U.S. national team has been drawn into the Group of Death. In 2006, the Americans drew Italy (who was the eventual champion), Ghana (arguably the best team in Africa), and the Czech Republic.

Today, the U.S. was grouped with Germany, a perennial favorite, Portugal (with Cristiano Ronaldo, the second best player on the planet), and Ghana (who eliminated the Yanks four years ago).

So for all the improvements the U.S. have made since 1990, and especially in the last three years since Jürgen Klinsmann took over as coach, it's unlikely the U.S. will surpass its second round performance four years ago, much less equaling its outstanding quarterfinal showing in 2002.

As great as recent wins in big international friendly matches and Gold Cup titles (the North and Central American and Caribbean Championships) have been, the only way to change perception (always more important than reality) is a deep run (semifinal or better) in a World Cup.

A win and a draw (four points) would be a considered a good showing, but that's wishful thinking (although we are world champs at that).

Klinsmann, a German, will face his home country, which he won a World Cup with in 1990 and coached to the semifinal in 2006. His former assistant coach, Joachim Löw, succeeded Klinsmann and has them in imperiousform, and as good as Germany is, the team is due. It hasn't won a major tournament since the European Championships in 1996, a team that Klinsmann captained. Sure, Klinsmann will have some insights into the German squad and how to exploit it, but he doesn't have the horses to match, especially in defense.

The U.S. shocked Portugal in 2002, but Cristiano Ronaldo, so long a disappointment for his national team, is now neck-and-neck with Lionel Messi as the world's best player, and can win a game on his own, as he did two weeks ago in Sweden when he scored a clutch (and stylish!) hat trick in thefinal qualification match.

Ghana is beatable (or tie-able), but they have a strong midfield with several players, like Kwadwo Asamoah and Sulley Muntari, playing in the rigorous Champions League—the best competition in the world--right now. The U.S. has only two players in C.L.: Jermaine Jones, who grew up in Germany with an American father, at Schalke 04, and Sacha Kljestan, though his Belgian club, Anderlecht, has been eliminated.

This actually follows a pattern (as soccer often does, for better and worse). Since the Yanks became a World Cup regular in 1990, their fortunes have gone up and down with each tournament.

Disappointing in '90 (and eliminated in the first round), good as host in '94 (and advanced to the second round), awful in '98 (and eliminated in the first round), excellent in '02 and advanced to quarterfinals (and nearly to the semis), disappointing in '06 (and eliminated in the first round), good in '10 and advanced to second round (though could've—even should've?—gone further). And now this.

It's too bad, since if the U.S. were to finish in the top two and advance, it would have a winnable match in the second round, a Belgium, say, or a Russia, maybe South Korea. The ironic thing? Mexico, who only qualified with last second help from the U.S. in the final regional qualification match--while not in an easy group with hosts Brazil, Croatia, and Cameroon--has a better chance to advance than the Americans. Life isn't fair; neither is soccer.

Michael J. Agovino's book, "The Soccer Diaries: An American's Thirty Year Pursuit of the International Game," will be out next spring.