Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.

Aloha Paragraphs

Small Craft Advisory…parts of Maui County
and the Big Island

Trade wind weather pattern

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Thursday evening:

The trade winds are filling back into our Hawaiian Island weather picture…on into the weekend and beyond. Here’s a weather chart showing a near 1032 millibar high pressure system located far to the northeast. At the same time, we find a trough of low pressure to the north of the islands. The trade winds returned today, and will strengthen further as we move into Friday and the weekend. The recent southeast winds have caused voggy skies on a few of the islands, including Maui County and parts of the Big Island.

Satellite imageryshows high level cirrus clouds moving over the state locally. Here’s the looping radar image, showing very few showers over or around the islands this evening. Here’s a looping satellite image – showing a few light showers being carried on the trade winds…heading towards the Big Island and Maui. As the trade winds continue well into the future, we’ll see those occasional showers arriving along our north and east facing coasts and slopes…mostly during the night and early morning hours. At the moment, the volcanic haze is still thick on Maui, and parts of the Big Island! It will take the trade winds to ventilate this stuff out of our areas…which started to happen slowly here on Maui. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Friday morning, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it. By the way, our May full moon is coming up soon, check that big round globe out tonight if you have a chance. Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here in Kula, Maui, it was partly cloudy, voggy and hot…with an air temperature of 80.8F degrees – at 545pm this evening

>>>The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)has announced that the 2013 hurricane season should see less than a normal number of tropical cyclones. For 2013, the outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above-normal season. They expect 1 to 3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

The outlook for a below-normal season is based upon the continuation of neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. The Central Pacific Basin also remains on the low activity side of a multi-decadal cycle. Historical records show that this combination of conditions tends to produce a less active than normal hurricane season for the central Pacific.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific and does not predict whether, where, when, or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.

>>>The eastern north Pacific , according to NOAA, announced today that a below-normal hurricane season is most likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season, a 35 percent probability of a near-normal season and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 11 to 16 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September. Tropical Storm Alvin, the season’s first named storm, developed on May 15.

The key climate factors behind this outlook are:

A continuation of the climate pattern responsible for the ongoing era of low-activity for Eastern Pacific hurricanes that began in 1995;

Dry season (May through September) outlook:

In recent summers, the number of trade wind rainfall days has been near normal but the amount of rain per day has been below normal.

Expecting at least persistence and possible worsening of drought in leeward Maui County and the Big Island

Seasonal leeward dryness on Kauai and Oahu

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean/Caribbean Sea:There are no active tropical cyclones / Here’s a link to the National Hurricane Center in Miami…which covers tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico all begin as of June 1.

Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Eastern Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones / AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Here’s what the various computer forecast models are showing for this tropical disturbance, being called invest 91E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones / Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)…covering our central Pacific. The hurricane season in this part of the Pacific begins as of June 1st.

Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones / Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which covers tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, and the North and South Indian Ocean…and adjacent Seas.

I’m still here in lower Kula/upper Pukalani with no wind. I can’t even see downtown at 5pm. I couldn’t believe it was 85F here at 2pm. I’m sad to hear that we’ll have another extra dry summer. That doesn’t bode well for the ranchers and farmers.~~~Hi Amanda, it was another hot one, 84 here in KUla, 85 in Pukalani, thanks to your report…and 90 down at Kahului. I’m sure it was 92 or so in both Lahaina and Kihei…at least! Yes, a long hot, dry summer for most of the state, makes me kind of nervous, glad I live in upper Kula…at least its cooler up here most days. Thanks for checking in again, Aloha, Glenn