Reality Check (Warriors 90, Kings 91)

The national media may be ready to hail the Warriors as potential contenders, but on Wednesday night the Warriors had their sights on a much more modest goal — holding onto a fourth quarter lead against the rebuilding Kings. Mark Jackson let his starting 5 play the final 6:16. They saw a 4-point lead turn into a 1-point deficit, and squandered countless opportunities at both ends to put the game away. You can chase your tail in the endless debate over whether preseason results really matter, but two facts are inescapable: the Warriors closed the game with their best players on the court, and those players weren’t able to save the win.

The Warriors 90-91 preseason loss to the Kings following a fourth quarter collapse is no reason for panic. It probably isn’t even worth mild concern. But it is a timely reminder that the team that took the San Antonio Spurs to 6 games last May was dismantled over the summer and a new squad built in its place. Time will tell whether the new team is also an improved one (my guess is yes). Right now, the coaches and the players still look like they’re trying to figure out how all the parts fit together.

The problems for the Warriors began Wednesday night following a classic Curry offensive explosion. After a first half where Curry’s major contribution was aggressive defense, he dialed in his shot at the start of the third quarter and pumped in 14 points in under 8 minutes. When Curry drained a three with 4:24 off a beautiful Iguodala assist, the Warriors went up 74-57 and the game looked essentially over. Jackson pulled his starters shortly thereafter and everyone seemed to relax. Except the Kings. Isaiah Thomas started attacking Curry and helped jump start a major Kings run. The reserves plus Curry kept the Warriors afloat for the final 4 minutes of the third quarter, scoring 7 points as a team and finishing with an 11-point lead.

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Mark Jackson’s decision to hockey-substitute his reserves for the start of the fourth quarter did nothing to help the Warriors’ dwindling momentum. Jackson’s rotation flexibility is obviously limited by Harrison Barnes’ absence, but he seems to have forgotten the lesson learned during his first two years that all-reserve line-ups sputter and struggle compared to ones with a blend of starters and role players. The reserves played the first 4:30 of the quarter, scored only 3 points and lost 3 points off the lead.

Cue Mark Jackson’s reinsert-the-starters-to-save-the-day fourth quarter substitution. He’s tried it a few times this preseason and they’ve managed to salvage wins. Wednesday was different. The Warriors put their best players on the court and put the ball in their hands, but still came up short. In the final 7:30 stretch, Curry was 1-3 from the field and 1-2 from the line; Thompson was 0-3 with no trips to the line; Iguodala was 0-2 with no trips to the line; Lee was 0-2 from the field and 1-2 from the line. Credit the tighter Kings’ defense for forcing the Warriors into some tough shots, but the quick, precise ball movement that the Warriors used to spark their runs throughout the game was entirely missing. The team resorted to isolation plays and last-second desperation passes to get off the few looks they managed.

It was the performance of a team unsure of its strategy to close out the game. If Curry is going to be the guy taking the tough shots, where were the screens and set plays to get him open? If the Warriors are going to try to exploit mismatches with Iguodala slashing or Thompson working in the post, where was the set offense to create those match-ups? Running David Lee at the basket isn’t a horrible idea, but given his struggles finishing and long history of missing key late-game free throws, it’s not a particularly good one either. And it looked as if Lee got the ball more by accident than by design. These were the moments last season where Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry often found points when the Warriors desperately needed them. That’s not to say the Warriors should have resigned one or both rather than make the moves they did last off-season, but the team needs to find someone (or combination of players) to fill their role as the stabilizing force when things get rocky. Curry? Thompson? Iguodala? Lee? Barnes? So far, it’s unclear.

The Warriors don’t have to have everything figured out by October 30 when the season starts, but these preseason games are raising as many questions as they’re answering. When the ball zips around the court, the Warriors seem to have an endless array of offensive weapons. But when the game slowed down in the grind-it-out final minutes on Wednesday, the team looked disorganized, waiting for someone to step up and take the big shot Factor in a few frustrating possessions at the defensive end where stops were wiped out by second (and third) opportunities by the Kings, and you have a classic reality check. We saw flashes of the skills that could make the Warriors a contender-quality team, but flashes of brilliance don’t win games against quality opponents (the type of opponents largely missing from the Warriors’ Patrick O’Bryant soft preseason schedule). The Warriors, like the rest of us, are still waiting for all of that individual talent to coalesce into a consistent team.

Adam Lauridsen

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Man, that scene with Polanski and Nicholson was brilliant and brutal. Some of the new filmmakers could learn from that when soaking their films with endless revolting and gratuitous blood and gore. Just as some women know when they dress, leaving a little to the imagination can be a lot more effective…

Chris L

I’ve always been—when I can be—an “owl.” Thomas Merton used to say that in typical householder life there are only two opportunities for real solitude: very early in the morning or very late at night:)

Zume

sludge, I saw that and it was frighteningly bad. Great analysis sludge. Malone knows defense and our weaknesses. Next Sacremento game will be a war. We better come more prepared for the Kings defense. More options, better options.

Zume

Chris L.
two of my favorites Thomas Merton and being an owl for solitude. If you see me here at 4 am it is because I was up all night – smile.

Chris L

In Klay’s defense, throughout the night he had been brilliant in drop-off passes to the post-screener. But, yes, being aggressive—swarming him with multiple guys on that play—was situationally a very good call.

Blitzing Thompson, like blitzing Curry, is as much a sign of respect (“we can’t afford to let Thompson get his feet set for a clean look in this possession if they run that pin-down screen for him”) as it is a sign that there’s a weakness to try to exploit (“let’s try to make him cough the ball up”).

Chris L

Wow, two more things in common, Zume.

Merton: “Nothing can be said that hasn’t already been said better by the wind in the pine tree.”

Zume

I thought Speights was out of line on that. He was trying to use his foot to block. It was not flagrant but it was a call.

Camelot

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Zume

Thank you Don. This is an important point that you are making here.

I was thinking the same thing. Why are we milking the clock. It is not our style. When we think too much we choke most of the time. Keep playing your game. Why can’t we play the 4th like we played the 3rd quarter. That is my question. What is mentally holding us back. This is a problem and it is not a new problem.

One thing I believe is that somehow our defense feeds our offense. Another thing that really feeds our offense is running and the fastbreak 3 pointer. When the flow starts to happen our team dynamics takes off and we start to roll. The problem is that the Kings don’t seem to allow us to do that. They must have watched a lot of videos on how to keep us from “rolling”. I would say the Spurs seem to understand this well.

Zume

The mass substitution totally shut down our momentum and we could not get it back.

sludge

ChrisL, thanks for pointing that out. I missed some parts of the game, so I appreciate the clarification.

One to grow on. Running out of preseason games, though.

jsl165

Really not much to add — but Jax really screwed the pooch here in a number of ways:

1. The whole-sale substitution in the second half; it’s OK to do this in the first half, but when you’re trying to close out a game it makes no sense at all.

2. Putting all starters back in with seven minutes to go. They were all cold. They were all tired. And they simply weren’t coached those last seven minutes (save for the final play).

3. Overplay of the obviously ailing Lee. The guy didn’t make shoot-around. Then he plays a terrible first half of defense (if you can call it that; he was rarely anywhere near Patterson or anyone else, for that matter), tho he was better in Q3. And, after the bent-tooth incident, he goes right back in?

Had Lee made that second FT, I was hoping in OT Jax would simply play his third stringers. The starters were all out of gas (China?) anyway — and to play them five more minutes would be senseless. So, in a way, it’s good that Lee missed.

On the plus side:

1. AI continues to improve on O, and his work with Bogs was terrific; that’s gonna be a sweet combo real soon.

2. Until he got sidetracked after Thomas climbed into his shirt, Steph was the Steph we’ve come to expect: his Q3 takeover was sweet — and his first half D was almost superlative. But he wore down, and let the Kings get into his tired kepi. Lesson learned, I trust.

3. Overall ball-movement was quite good. As was D, until the legs gave out in Q4. And tho Cousins looks markedly improved, Bogs was good on him.

4. Second stringers. . . . Well, no; nothing of value in this game — which is why Jax should have learned that his whole-sale substitution pattern is a non-starter, so to speak.

Chris L

Adam,

I very much agree with your point about Jackson’s hockey second-line substitutions.

On one hand, it’s great to feather in mins for a couple extra guys whenever you can. That Jackson looks to do that is undoubtedly a contribution to the team-wide chemistry.

However, imo there should be a clearer pecking-order—strata—among the reserves. And, like you say, almost all bench-lineup constellations need to be bolstered by a starter (or two).

Perhaps that will be the most interesting thing tonight—to see whether Jackson’s substitution pattern will signal the one he’s most likely to use next Wednesday?

2. Even though many of us would’ve liked to see more audition-minutes for Nedovic, Douglas seems equally set—at least for now—to be Curry’s primary backup. I thought that last night at least Douglas was less jarring to offensive flow—even though he still didn’t/can’t “create” as much as you’d like a PG to do.

4. My biggest gripe about last night’s substitutions was the Speights/Green allotment. Speights was the backup PF, and Green the backup SF.

I don’t agree with that. Until Barnes is back, Green should be the first backup at both SF and PF/stretch-4 (and, essentially, because of Iguoudala’s versatility—and until Barnes is back—Green should be the utility infielder who comes in whenever Thompson, Iguoudala, or Lee needs a rest.)

Green gives the team scrap, hustle, alertness, ballhandling, movement—that panache and energy that the team needs (and shouldn’t be taking for granted it will automatically find just because “the lights will come on” once regular season games begin.

I developed mild symptoms of carpal syndrome last night rewinding so often to confirm what I already knew: that time after time, whether in the halfcourt or in transition, the W’s defense would break down—when it did break down—because of Speights’ sluggishness.

5. Speights and Bazemore should compete for (distant) 9th man mins—and that only until Barnes is fully healthy.

In sum, for me right now—and again until Barnes is back:

—Douglas and O’Neal at 12-14 mpg as backups at PG and C.

—Green as utility infielder who gets the lion’s share of mins (upper 20’s?) at the other positions.

—Speights and Bazemore competing for the scraps after that (and even then it’s not clear to me that Kuzmic and Nedovic won’t belong—sooner than later—competing with Speights and Bazemore, too).

NCDub

ChrisL
Early mornings are quite useful–as we both apparently know–which reminds me–“If it’s your job to eat a frog, it’s best to do it early in the morning…If it’s your job to eat two frogs, it’s best to eat the big one first””–Mark Twain

Zume

We need to figure out what team will close the game for us on a night in and night out basis. Who will play in the last 7 minutes. To be honest, I am not sure about Klay and would prefer HB and/or Draymond Green. Those 2 seem to make the big money shots or plays. Who else? Bogut until they go to hack a Bogut?

Curry, Iguodala, Lee, Bogut and Draymond or HB or Klay. Maybe it has to be based on who was playing the best up until that time – crunch time. Who should have closed out last game and who should not have? For free throws towards the end maybe Lee is actually a liability for the last minutes. Sub in Draymond? It is going to get complicated.

Son of Ahmed

Col,

I am bullish on the Warriors, and I expect them to be there at the WCF’s. Strangely, Double E and I both suggested in the summer that is was plausible for the Warriors and Bulls to meet in the finals and the Bulls to prevail.

I am not retracting my prediction that the Warriors make the WCF’s. But that fourth quarter follows an unsettling patter we saw in the playoffs.

Zume

Keep the quotes coming. Thank you Chris L. Also Henri Nouwen fan. For theology check out NT Wright. He just came out with a new book about Paul. When does our reading club start?

Chris L

I thought exactly that, too. Looked to me like a football leg-whip.

Zume

I am thinking the same thing. D. Rose will be a revelation this coming year. He has hunger written all over. MVP battle with Lebron. Epic clashes Miami vs Bulls.

Chris L

I don’t know NT Wright. Thanks for that tip. But I certainly know Nouwen.

In a related vein, Zume, do you know Nouwen’s essay/talk, “The Spirituality of Fund-Raising”?

A close friend of mine has recently become the prior of a monastery in Big Sur, and this weekend I was helping him edit his first “appeals” letter—and was referring to Nouwen continually.

It’s a good text for “spiritual” non-profits—maybe when translated into secular terms—a good text for any non-profit.

Not sure about the very end of games, but one lineup I am dying to see out there is Curry, AI, Klay Barnes and Bogut. That gives you three stellar perimeter defenders, an elite shot blocker and enough offensive firepower to burn any stadium down.

Zume

I had not heard of this work by Nouwen. Thank you. I am into spiritual direction and he is amazing on that topic.

Mopedelic

I agree with this view to a great extinct. Imagine the flow and results of the game were reversed: blown to bits in quarter 2 and 3 but able to come back against the reserves and ultimately able to beat the starters. Would we be happy? No! everyone would be harping on the poor defense of quarters 2 and 3, reminiscent of years past, proof that recent acquisitions and healthy Bogut mean nothing, etc, etc…
I think it was Steve that suggested that MJ should have left or substituted the reserves at the end of the game, but keep the starters on the bench, a point I totally agree with. The starters had made their point earlier: they defend better than year past, and they still can go on a scoring spree at any time, having more talent than the kings.
I was actually praying for Lee to miss the second FT at the end of the game: who wants to go in OT in a meaningless preseason game, following a long trip and in the middle of a BTB?

Like you I am not sure. I think MJ is not sure. It will help when we figure this out but maybe it is not something to figure out.

Zume

thank you Camelot!

Gmoney

That is the absolute beauty of this roster, there are numerous ways the coach can go in terms of lineups and PT. My guess is, the team will go through some growing pains before it really settles in on a comfortable and stable rotation.

sludge

Chris L:
I’m with you if I had to choose who I’d want on the court between Draymond Green or Speights, Draymond wins for me (as of right now). I’m hopeful Speights can shake his label of all offense (10ft and out) and no defense soon. But as of now he’s not passing the “eye test”.

sludge

am i missing something? is tonight’s game not televised? or do I know not how to read my cable viewing guide

Camelot

No tv.

RickP

I don’t buy some of the things I’ve been reading. They lost because they had nothing to prove. It means nothing because it’s a preseason game. Stuff like that.

I think MJ wanted to win this game, and he expected his starters to succeed.

Instead, the team scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, with the starters in for 6+ minutes.

So, there’s a question to be answered. Why did they fail so miserably?

I posted before (but I don’t see it now) that they lost the way bad teams lose. Porous defense, lack of intensity, free lancing instead of crisp execution of plays and so forth.

Last night they needed Jack to stabilize the offense and Landry to hit high percentage shots from inside.

Iggy, who Myers expects to cover Jack’s contribution, isn’t there yet with this team.

Nobody is as reliable at Landry was. He was among the league leaders in offensive efficiency, despite a poor stretch when he may have been injured. Who covers that? It certainly isn’t Speights shooting jumpers. Bogut was efficient last night, but, so far, that’s the exception, not the rule. JON did not look effective.

I do think that the W’s probably would have won this game if it was the regular season, but only by playing the starters for more minutes — maybe too many. Frankly I don’t see the depth.

It seems to me that they have 6 players who can impose their will on a game at least a majority of the time. They need at least two more, maybe three.

Draymond could be one, but only if he can shoot. So far, it looks like he has a good night — infrequently.

JON could be another, but he’ll need to play better than last night (not that I’m sure it was his fault — maybe they aren’t putting him in the right situations).

Bazemore is in love with his own shot. I don’t like his game. NN has everything to prove – maybe he can do that, so far I can’t tell. The idea behind using TD is that somebody else runs the team and TD plays defense and hits 3’s. So far, it hasn’t been working.

So, my assessment, thus far, is that the starting 6 is a very good team, notwithstanding some shooting problems that I expect will come around. I don’t see enough quality in the bench — player(s) need to step up.

Some numbers. Last night the starters were 26/55. The bench was 8/27. The +/- numbers also tell the same story. Starters mostly excellent, bench mostly horrible.

NCDub

sludge
Draymond over Speights is a no-brainer for so many reasons I can’t begin to list them. Say no more…

sludge

cam you’re bringin me down man.

Eric Eiserloh

I understand your point, col, and agree to a certain extent, but do you understand mine?

I also agree with what you went on to say here about last year being a “tale of 4 seasons,” and actually said something similar in my initial response to you.

Furthermore, I agree that “game by game” analysis is not “particularly predictive” (and said as much), but it does tell us something that the team needs to deal with (a series of games tells us more), or respond to, and both the players and coaches have acknowledged this in their post game comments.

Every “season” for any team is a work in progress, but making the right assessments and addressing them the best way possible has a lot to do with how the kind of progess any team makes.

JanG

RickP:

Hate myself for saying this, but I agree with you! On everything. Sigh…..

oasn: JanG: I enjoyed your MJ question for the G. live Open Practice Event (Sat).

JanG

Thanks Cam. Did I get selected?
Lost the link. Can you send?

NCDub

RickP
I understand where you’re coming from & I agree & disagree.
Regarding all your individual points on players, coaching, effort, drive etc.–almost a rant–you were pretty much on the money IMO–to be much better at this time would be over-expecting it seems to me.
I disagree that all these things matter much at this juncture. It’s pre-season, a time to test, evaluate, etc. & that’s what’s being done–at no cost in W’s vs. L’s. This bunch is potentially quite better than last year’s, but it needs time to come together, say like another month or so. Spirit & chemistry & yes effort must be “learned” just as on court skills must be–& it takes time.This is a re-vamped squad. The talent is certainly there. The coaching is far improved. We’ve shed a lot of $$ (remember Bieds/Jeff?). Give it a break–for now.
At the end of the year there will be 50+ Dub W’s & a high seed–count on it.
Sorry but let’s agree to disagree.
No offense surely.
GoDubs.

Eric Eiserloh

RE: Dray/Speigh

It’s not as easy as that. D simply cannot handle the bigger guys for long stretches, nor does he have enough size on the offensive end to get into the teeth of the defense, which is something that Speights (and warrior strategists) should be doing more of.

When this team is clicking (the starters, any ways) it is a wonder to behold, and very efficient on the offensive end.

We have great shooters, and a team that can score from anywhere (Bogut definitely had his best offensive game last night), as well as guys who can deliver the ball.

But this team, like any other, can be knocked out of sync, or simply “lose i” for stretches, and the difference between great teams and the rest, is how they are able to respond, then.
What to they turn to when their shots aren’t falling, and how effective is it, moreover can they resolve things in time?

Camelot

I don’t know if they send the winner or you in general a congrats message before the announcement live.

Chris L

My point is that Speights can’t handle “bigger” guys, quicker guys—or team defense and rotations—even for “short” stretches.

Draymond defends everybody better than Speights does—and his team defense is way above par, while Speights is well below it.

And Speights doesn’t even try “to get into the teeth of the defense.”

See an open jumper? End of the offensive story for Speights.

Our Team

gmoney, if you want to get excited, watch some of Bogut’s low post offensive moves in the 3rd Q of the Sac game. Very slick. Spin, lefty hook and reverse layup. Makes them both with soft shooting touch. He wasn’t even close to physically able to do that last year. Also, Curry took a nasty fall on his ankle in the second half of this game and I held my breadth, but he popped up just fine. Good sign re the health of both key players.
I agree with you, it’s preseason–I don’t care about the stupid result. MJ won’t make those silly hockey substitutions in the regular season–without at least Klay and AI in there, it leaves us ineffective on O with the second string in there. We dominated the game in the third Q when the first string was in there. The Kings were home with the highly touted Warriors in their house. This was more than a normal preseason game to the Kings–not to the Warriors. I actually came away from this game pleased–by the new low post offense Bogut displayed, by Curry’s improving D, and by the continued improved play of AI and KT.

Our Team

Think the Warriors’ ownership is totally “sold” on MJ as the future coach of this team? No contract extension yet. They extended Curry early. They are talking to Bogut about an early extension. Nothing re MJ’s contract yet. (Lacob wants to see how MJ does without Malone here.)

sludge

thanks for that..

Our Team

From MTII:

Even if Dedmon doesn’t make the team now, he’ll play for the Warriors in Santa Cruz. He is one of three players who have already agreed to be affiliate players should they not make the team.

League rules allow teams to designate up to three non-roster players from training camp. That prevents other teams from poaching them away. Dedmon, Seth Curry and Joe Alexander have already agreed to the designation should they not make the roster.

admoney

You’re never gonna teach anyone to act like Jack
It’s like Steph — you got it or you dont

admoney

C’mon Speights wise up
There’s a ring waiting if you do

admoney

All hail THE PISTOL

sartre

I agree, Chris. The same argument is sometimes made re needing Lee as PF against bangers rather than the smaller Barnes or Green playing stretch 4s. But Barnes and Green are the better defenders and more likely to limit damage at that end even against bigger players. Not saying Lee shouldn’t be the number option as PF but I don’t see Barnes and Green as greater defensive liabilities simply because of their relative size.