Tropical Depression Ofel Afternoon Update October 23, 2012

Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and PAGASA have upgraded Invest 92W into a Tropical Depression, with the latter giving the local name ‘Bagyong Ofel.’ The Joint Typhoon Warning Center hasn’t upgraded yet but released a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert indicating a HIGH chance of development and so we expect them to follow suit within 24 hours.

Here is the complete list of provinces under Signal Warnings from PAGASA as of 5pm this afternoon (Philippine Time):

Leyte, Southern Leyte, Eastern and Western Samar, Bohol, Camotes Island, Dinagat, Surigao Provinces, Agusan Provinces, Camiguin Island, and Misamis Oriental. The said provinces should expect winds of up to 60kph along with widespread rains to occur within the next 48 hours. Flooding and landslides are possible so please consult with your local officials for any warnings or updates in your area.

Tropical Depression Ofel (92W) is currently located east of Mindanao. The system is still pretty disorganized with weak and fragmented convective activity. We do expect it to become a Tropical Storm in the next 24 to 48 hours before moving into Mindanao and Visayas. Potentially widespread rains could impact Visayas and Mindanao over the next few days. PAGASA has already issued Public Storm Warning Signals in many areas in anticipation of this system.

Eventually by Friday, this depression is expected to move out into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and may threaten the rest of Southeast Asia by next week.