The Associated PressAnthony Weiner speaks to the media during a news conference in New York on June 16. Weiner resigned after a sex scandal and Democrats are now in danger of losing his seat.

While the Democrats have had some big successes in special congressional elections this year, they're facing real trouble holding on to the New York City seat left vacant by the resignation of Democrat Anthony Weiner.

In New York, The Post's Rachel Weiner points out that Weprin has made a series of errors, including underestimating the size of the national debt by $10 trillion and canceling out of an important debate. The district has also become much less Democratic in recent years, apparently in part because the large Orthodox Jewish vote is shifting to the GOP.

At any rate, a GOP victory next Tuesday would certainly make national news - if not as much as Weiner's Tweets - and would certainly give Republicans a big talking point as they try to raise money for the Jan. 31 special election in Oregon to replace Wu. In particular, it wouldn't be surprising if a Turner victory helped encourage some independent conservative group to launch its own ad campaign in Oregon.

At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, Wu's old district leans slightly more to the Democrats than does the open New York Congressional seat. Cook rates the Oregon seat as favoring Democrats by eight points, compared to the five-point Democratic lean in New York. (Interestingly, the Oregon seat will drop to +5 Democratic when redistricting takes effect for the regular congressional election in November of 2012. The old lines will be in effect for the special election in January).

So given all of that, you've got to believe that a Republican win in New York would be loudly cheered by the Oregon GOP.