Posted
by
timothy
on Wednesday December 30, 2009 @04:48PM
from the anthropogenic-warming-is-hard dept.

dinoyum writes "Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov's promise of a winter without snow in the capital city has fallen short. While cloud seeding is not a new concept for Russia, often used on major holidays, geoengineering snow has never been done to that magnitude. Carrying off the $6 million procedure required jets to spray silver iodide into coming clouds, ensuring that all precipitation fell before it reached the capital. However a combination of disrupted radar, wind control, and faulty weathermen have been blamed by Luzhkov for his failed attempt at playing with mother nature. For now, Russia can go back to enjoying snow."

Chaos theory is not inherently unpredictable - it is quite predictable. The problem is that prediction cannot be done an arbitrary amount of time in the future, but instead has to be done iteratively. Furthermore, there's a difference between the difficulty of predicting the location of a particular O2 molecule 2 weeks in the future, and the statistical prediction of the average kinetic energy of O2 molecules 2 weeks in the future.

Yes and no. They're typically accurate to within a given margin of error (uncertainty) for temperature and precipitation, but that margin is fairly wide where the average person is concerned. From a historical perspective, weather prediction is more accurate now than ever before, but for many laypeople, five degrees (67F to 72F) can mean the difference between wearing a jacket or not, so small variations are often viewed as being "wrong."

You also have to distinguish between the local weather faces, many of whom don't even have a meteorological degree, and folks at the National Weather Service or AccuWeather or other companies that employ professionals.

The precision problem is a big one. Where I'm from, if there is a winter storm, my area is frequently on the boundary between rain, wintry mix and snow. Determining where the lines between those precipitation types will fall is very difficult and they always get it wrong...not because they s

Back when I was in elementary school, my school was privaledged to have a special weather program for the more advanced students. A special satellite dish was installed on the roof hooked up to special terminals in our classroom; we had a direct downlink from the satellite.

I recall seeing a big hurricane coming towards us. With the data we had (a few hours worth), I knew it would hit by tomorrow. The meteorologists said it was a low chance of it coming in, but the basic signs - cold fronts, warm fronts, win

so the cost would be roughly equivalent to 200km of streets which is quite small for a city like Moscow. And this just consider the cost of removing the snow, not the broken bones to people slipping, car accident, traffic jam...

That's an extremely pessimistic view though... if in the future they use this technique to reduce/remove the amount of snow, it could cost half as much year over year. Anyone can see how that could ROI pretty quickly...

EPA Soldier: I'm afraid we lost them, sir.Russ Cargill: Damn it! Well, then you find 'em, and you get 'em back in the dome! And to make sure nobody else gets out, I want roving death squads around the perimeter 24-7! I want 10,000 tough guys, and I want 10,000 soft guys to make the tough guys look tougher! And here's how I want them arranged: tough, soft, tough, tough, soft, tough, soft, soft, tough, tough, soft, soft, tough, soft, tough, soft!EPA Soldier: Sir, I'm afraid you've gone mad with power.Russ Cargill: Of course I have! Have you ever tried going mad without power? It's boring, no one listens to you!

Can we please stop with the constant flow of unreasoning right-wing hatred of the French on slashdot? We get it, surrender monkeys. You don't have to throw it in to totally unrelated discussions about other European nations. Kthx.

They weren't speaking English as you'd know it back then. In fact it was the Norman conquest of England that lead directly to the formation of the modern English language, so the French are in fact responsible for the language you are dissing them in.

Can we please stop with the constant flow of unreasoning right-wing hatred of the French on slashdot? We get it, surrender monkeys. You don't have to throw it in to totally unrelated discussions about other European nations. Kthx.

I'm going to have to refer you to the irrefutable wisdom of Thomas Jefferson.

- "Every man has two countries: his own and France."

So, since Jefferson has asserted that we're all of both our nation and of France, I think it is only fair that we are allowed to talk down about either location. Given that France is much smaller than the rest of the world, if everyone spoke out against their own country and that of France equally, it begins to make sense why we see so much more vitriol toward France.

And to think their refusal to validate the UN resolution against Iraq because of doubts about the intelligence (which was the direct cause for all the vitriol against the French in the past few years like the "Freedom Fries") turned out to be *completely justified*. Who's the funny guy now?

Russia is reverting to its industry-over-humans ways. Sure road cleaning might cost a bit, but who would to spend 5 months with subfreezing temperatures but no snow (which would accidentally raise temperatures a bit). No snowmen, no snowballs, no sledding, no respite from pollution by covering up the accumulated gunk with white? And in spring city landscaping will suffer from lack of moisture in soil.

Yup, I confirm that a snowless winter is much colder. The snow acts as a thermal insulator, so that a -3C without snow feels like -10C with snow.Also, snow is aesthetically nice, covering up all the dirt and old brown grass etc.

Given the same conditions. Temperatures (particularly at night) are significantly colder if there is a ground cover of snow, than if there isn't (because as you said, snow is a thermal insulator that keeps the heat in the ground, and thus out of the air). Read the 'forecast discussion' on any NOAA forecast for an area that has a good snow cover and a clear, still night and they often mention things like "bumped temps down a few degrees from guidance, due to snow cover".

Ah, but practically speaking snow cover will be established during 5 months of subzero temperatures cloud seeding or not. So what remains is raise in temperature from phase transition of lots of water and a heavy cloud cover that keeps the heat from dissipating. Look at thermometer sometime - it gets 10C warmer in 20 minutes once heavy snowfall starts.

Really? A lot of people hate snow and would presumably be more than willing to go without. Myself included. Unfortunately, living in a tiny town just west of a larger city, if this were to ever happen I'd probably be a little unhappy.

Traditionally, when someone dislikes something that others like, we prefer to let things be as they naturally are. Your right to swing your fist... face... etc.

This means people who like graffiti don't get to impose it on others' buildings, and likewise people who hate snow don't get to remove it from others. While this is seemingly illogical, since one action adds and the other removes, the point is that clean buildings and snowy winters are the default state.

Plus there's the fact that the rest of the world is trying to fight pollution while these geniuses are regularly spraying chemicals into the air because they think rain is unpleasant. Thanks guys!

You mean the rest of the world like the USA, where cloud seeding is completely and totally unregulated, and it's not even illegal to do it over someone else's land? And where it proceeds in great volume in spite of there being no evidence that it actually works on the kind of scale usually employed by private contractors working for farmers...

Many states have regulations against cloud seeding, but there are no federal statutes whatsoever. So completely and totally unregulated is some bullshit that I heard somewhere. Around a third of states have no regulations; in those states it's totally unregulated:P

Try doing something winter-related. I live in Canada and I get this attitude all the time from people. They hate the winter and complain about the snow, and basically the only time they go outside is when walking to or from their cars.

IF you have the correct gear, tobogganing, skating, cross-country or downhill skiing, snowshoeing or just making snow angels are all fun and enjoyable activities. As an added bonus, they're also far healthier than sitting around in the house. This is both from the point

I live in Iowa and the only of those activities I could really do is cross country skiing. I've done it, it's alright. Downhill skiing I love, but it's not really an option here. It's an inconvenience, causes accidents, and my dog comes back in the house with wet feet all the time. My friends from Alabama that think it's beautiful haven't seen the disgusting, filthy snow on the side of the road.

I'm not a bitter, unhappy person. I just don't like snow. Incidentally, it's less of an inconvenience than mowi

I don't know about the place where you live, but here in Minnesota we get about two hours of glistening, beautiful, white snow followed by a matter of months of dirty, disgusting, brown or black slush and enormous grey snowbanks. Personally, I think that it would be a much less dreary place in winter if we didn't have all of this accumulated snow.Having said that, I'm also an avid skier, so it should go without saying that I don't want to see snow-free winters. Ideally I would just like snow to stay where i

Having said that, I'm also an avid skier, so it should go without saying that I don't want to see snow-free winters. Ideally I would just like snow to stay where it belongs.

The snow was there first.

Anyway where I live it's 4 or 5 months of glistening white snow, if you like the white stuff but hate the brown, you just need to move further north, that's all. Of course, we still get about a month of nasty brown shit, but it also means things are warming up, and we aren't too upset about that when it comes.;)

That always was my favorite part about the Soviet Union. None of this whiny "but we'll get cancer" crap. In Russia, a guy would be lucky to see his sixties and not die of alcohol-related disease.

My favorite was Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy [wikipedia.org], which was a much bigger version(i.e. over 200 nuclear explosions!) of the US's Operation Plowshare (a mere 28). They made a lake, went prospecting for diamonds and oil and gas and all sorts of neat things to do with "peaceful nuclear explosions." I believe the Soviets also found a way to make cattle feed directly out of petroleum (though I haven't been able to source this), I suppose in case of nuclear winter. I think the Soviets were also thinking of working with the USA to intentionally melt the Arctic ice sheet via damming up the Bering Strait or something. They were going to use the Energia rocket (designed for their Buran Space Shuttle) to orbit a giant orbiting mirror to illuminate arctic/Siberian towns during the cold, dark winters there.

You learn how to fight to win in the struggle of Man vs Nature when you live in a place as cold and desolate as Russia.

I think the Russians actually WANT global warming. I doubt they'll ever start doing anything meaningful to stop it. Heck, an ice-free Arctic would mean a lot more viable trading ports for Russia, something it has always been in very short supply of (compared to the United States, which has ginormous, ice-free trading ports on the two busiest oceans... this has been an enormous engine of growth and geopolitical power for the USA). Also, they would likely substantially increase how much arable land they have available if the temperature rose a few degrees. The only people who have more to gain from Global Warming is probably Canada.

And if global warming is ever a big enough problem that we just HAVE TO lower the temperature a few degrees via some geoengineering scheme, the Russians are the ones to go to who have the gonads to do it and the industrial capability to pull it off, although China could probably do it just as well.

I believe the Soviets also found a way to make cattle feed directly out of petroleum (though I haven't been able to source this),

It's not much of a stretch. In the West (probably everywhere), we use petroleum to make artificial flavors. For instance, strawberry flavored gum or strawberry flavored ice cream just wouldn't exist at the consumer level without faking it with Petroleum-based esterification (there are just not enough strawberries in the World to make that a viable option).

After I get off work I make many esters at home, Fischer Esterification is the name of the process. I make rum, cherry and banana flavors regularly. I purify them via vacuum distillation. I make more exotic ones such as pineapple, honey and various other fruits/flavors.

All you need is a copy of Vogel's 3rd Edition Practical Organic Synthesis (written in plain english), the webpage on wikipedia about esterification and the reagents (ingredients you buy in a walmart) plus a little sulfuric

Whoah there... Tobogganing at a skiing facility? I have never seen this. Are there actually places that you can ski/toboggan on the same hill? Can you take the toboggan up the lift? Ever since I was little, I have liked toboganning, but hate walking up steep hills in the winter... This could change everything.

About the brown/black snow... Yes, snow that has been removed from streets is gross and should be left alone, but once you leave the sides of the road, even by 5 feet, the snow is nice and whit

Lots of ski resorts have little side hills where you can go toboganning. Most of the places are actually tubing, where you sit on an inflated tube and go down the hill. There's even some hills [glissades.ca] that offer only tubing. A rope tows you up the top, and some hills have moving walkways. Lots of fun for everyone.

I remember China making mention of doing this for the 2008 games, but as far as I can see, the only policies that really did make a difference in the weather was closing factories, and banning cars from the road to reduce the choking air pollution...

A - I read the summary. Cloud seeding will result in precipitation forming prematurely - but it will not denude a cloud of all possible precipitation. I have never heard of anywhere close to 100% precipitation being prevented by cloud seeding... Thus my question.
2 - Moscow is over a 1000 km squared - I'd call that a region. This ain't a little burg somewhere.

To save folks time, I will quote directly from the wikipedia article:
"The amount of precipitation due to seeding is difficult to quantify. Cloud seeding may also suppress precipitation."
The article contains plenty of examples of places where cloud seeding is used, but no data that would back up the "works" claim.

Stealing all my snow. Bastards! I live further than anyone else from the office, if it snows I get a snow day. So far this winter it has snowed once on my way home from work, and it was all gone by morning.
I can hear you asking where I live... I live in the best place in the world! Vancouver Canada.

Lemme get this straight. We're in the middle of a climate crisis, and they're messing with the weather? There couldn't possibly be a connection between precipitation and temperature could there? It's not like water vapor is the most prominent greenhouse gas or anything...

You're kidding me. You don't see any potential political backlash from frivolous atmospheric geoengineering on the heels of the Copenhagen summit? I'm not being greenboi, just suggesting it's a rather inflammatory thing to do in this *political* climate.

One morning with nothing better to do, I watched from my hotel window as a crew removed snow from the Moscow street below. Men with shovels scooped the snow into a truck, no other machines were used. The truck disappeared to dump the snow into the river. The snow has so much salt in it that nothing, absolutely nothing downstream survives. It's a huge source of pollution. It took the truck about two hours to dump the snow and return. During this time the men lean against their shovels and smoked. They did not employ a second truck which led me to assume that in Russia a truck is worth more than six men.

So there is a good reason to stop snow accumulation in Moscow (reducing pollution) but unemployment would spike.

What we do in Alaska is plow the snow up on the sidewalk, and then use single-person driveable snowblowers (like those mini-backhoes you see) to clear the sidewalks. They are wide enough to get the whole sidewalk in one pass, and pedestrians are only inconvenienced a day or two. They would have been trapsing through a foot of snow anyway, so no big change.

For really small streets a single plow will do the job, for medium sized streets two plows tag-team it, and for the major roads it is generally two to t

This may be surprising to you, but in many US cities there
is a planting strip between the sidewalk and the road. In urban areas
the sidewalks may be quite wide and also have a planting strip. While
the snowpiles may decrease the pedestrian capacity some, they won't decrease
it to the point where the sidewalks are unusable, unless you have truly
epic snowfalls (Buffalo, NY leaps to mind). That's why I prefaced
my remark with, "is there so much snow that...". I'm not that familiar with
Moscow. I know it

Is there so much snow that they can't use a plow and shove it up on the sidewalk?

If Russia is anything like Canada, that option is only possible in suburbs where there's a sufficiently large area in front of the houses. It just doesn't work in cities. I live in Montreal. We usually get anywhere between 2 and 4 meters of snow in the winter. If you somehow managed to push all of that on the sidewalks, you would end up with 10+ m walls.

It turned out to be quite difficult
to get hard data about snowfall in Moscow.
I guess because snow can come in various
densities, they prefer to quote liquid equivalents.

According to one source: " mainly from November through March. During those months Moscow gets a liquid-equivalent of 7.30-8.98 inches of rain. If that all fell as snow, they would get more than 73-90 inches!"

It sounds like it might the kind of situation
you're talking about--epic snowfalls of the type
Washington DC saw recently being co

I live in Ottawa, so our snowfall is very comparable to Montreal's. Here, ploughs do indeed shove everything onto downtown sidewalks initially, and the sidewalk ploughs clear a path afterwards. Then, after enough ploughed snow has accumulated they'll remove it using giant snowblowing trucks which go down street after street (overnight parking bans would be in effect) and transfer them to dump trucks to take it to designated snow fields. There's almost always one dump truck being loaded and one waiting to ta

When I become dictator, I'm going to ban the use of road salt. Here in Ontario, Canada we dump it all over our roads, even when it looks like it MIGHT start freezing soon. I understand we're using less than before, but why not get rid of it altogether?

Just drive a little slower. Buy a better car and keep it longer, which you'll be able to do as it won't rust to pieces in 8 years. Cessating road salting will also help bridges and roads last longer and will cause less environmental damage.

Climate produces weather. They're not trying to change the climate. They're not even necessarily trying to change the weather--they're not trying to make it not snow. What they're trying to do is make it snow someplace else. And we're talking that someplace else being, say, 30 or 40 miles away.

I never said they were. I was merely highlighting the OP's point (what I got from it), which is that global warming is a nice conjecture, but really there's no evidence of it (more precisely, there's no evidence that people are the cause of it).

But let's assume we are the cause... I once looked it up, and 15 cargo ships produce as much greenhouse gas as all the cars in the world combined. There are 90,000 cargo ships in the world that operate all the time. Do the math. Now, ask yourself why politicians

I once looked it up, and 15 cargo ships produce as much greenhouse gas as all the cars in the world combined.

As much as I despise the phrase... lolwut?

Just think about that for a second. Use your sense of natural intuition, your common sense, your sense of proportions and orders of magnitude. Does that statement seem even remotely plausible. That 15 ships emit the same volume of GHGs as a billion cars?

Groan. And time for... yet another idiot confusing weather and climate.

You are so right... they have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with each other. In fact, I would bet that every snow storm means that the climate is actually getting much hotter... sort of an inverse relationship. Except for in the summer (of course)... that's just the beginning of a 50,000 year global heat wave caused by cars and incandescent light bulbs.

Every stinkin' year, it gets cold and snows in Russia... will global warming ever end?

Local weather conditions have absolutely nothing to do with global climate trends. Global mean temperatures can go up, but locally, you may be experiencing the coldest day of your life. Snow storms in colder, local regions of the globe are not mutually exclusive to warmer global temperatures.

As far as nature goes, that's really small scale. Now, if they were trying to do this for all of eastern Russia, that's different, but they were just trying for Moscow. Less snow in Moscow wouldn't do that much, though it would probably slow the spring recovery a bit - less insulation for the plants during winter means the ground freezes deeper, and no runoff from snow melt means plants get their first watering later.

I don't know if you know this, but Moscow is not on a mountain. The most likely place for them to get the snow to dump would be over a mountain, so your scenario is completely backwards.

Still, I'm a bit surprised that they would try this, completely eliminating the snow will slow the warm-up process in spring, and any vegetation will have a much harder time coming back. The snow prevents the ground from freezing as deeply - without it a lot of plant roots die during winter. Do they really have so few pla

Still, I'm a bit surprised that they would try this, completely eliminating the snow will slow the warm-up process in spring, and any vegetation will have a much harder time coming back. The snow prevents the ground from freezing as deeply - without it a lot of plant roots die during winter. Do they really have so few plants in Moscow that this is no big deal? No parks or anything?

I remember there being some small parks around Moscow, but I don't remember any being very large or particularly noteworthy. One of the things there seems to be no shortage of in Russia is labor--you'll find humans performing tasks there that seem either completely unnecessary or like they should've been automated away long ago. This extends to park maintenance, as well. I was amazed at how many people it seemed to take to water the flowers in the park outside the Kremlin the last time I was there. I'd