The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

From the Ethics of the Fathers: "He [Rabbi Tarfon] used to say, it is not incumbent upon you to complete the task, but you are not exempt from undertaking it."

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

ISIS is Collapsing - Daniel Pipes

But if the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq is doomed, ISIS will live on
in other ways.

[N.B.: This version differs slightly from the MH one; and its title is "ISIS in Syria, Iraq, weaker, is on the verge of collapse."]

I predict that the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq will collapse as fast
as it arose. Indeed, I will go out on a limb and say I expect it to be
gone by the end of 2016.

That the Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh) will be
gone is predictable because all totalitarian states eventually disappear
due to three main developments: cadres become disillusioned, subject
populations suffer, and external enemies increase in number. All these
problems afflicted, for example, the fascist states of World War II as
well as the Soviet bloc.

ISIS will collapse quickly because it suffers from an extreme form of these problems.

Disillusioned cadres: The heaven-on-earth ISIS promises its
adepts turns out to be closer to hell, prompting many recruits to flee
and many more to want to. Growing numbers of ISIS fighters lack loyalty
to the group, toiling only for the money or out of fear. The reasons can
be as mundane as bad food and as elevated as bad theology, but grievous
disappointment is the common theme coming from the ranks of ISIS
members. Radical ideologues evolve into penitents; drug-addled fighters end up as near-vegetables.

Britain's Express newspaper reports on ISIS moaning.

Suffering subject population: ISIS oppresses the unfortunate
millions who live under its rule in a territory about as large as Great
Britain. If a few benefit from the system, the great majority suffer
from the petty interference, impoverishment, arbitrary rules, brutality,
and sadism that characterize ISIS dominion. These subject people will
rebel whenever the opportunity arises.

Foreign enemies: ISIS seems to take pride in making as many
enemies as possible, which may burnish its credentials for purity but
leaves it exceedingly vulnerable. It gratuitously alienated Jordanians
by burning alive an air force pilot; it enraged Turks by setting off
bombs in major cities; its acts of violence in Paris, Brussels, and
beyond have made it enemy #1 in much of the West (including even the Islamists living there); it alienates everyone with the destruction of antiquities, the use of poison gas, and the videotaped beheadings. Its only alliances are with like-minded groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria.

As a result, ISIS has become uniquely reviled. For example, in an unprecedented meeting, the U.N. Security Council in December 2015 voted unanimously to impose far-reaching economic sanctions on ISIS. On another level, a recent large-scale survey
found half of 18 to 24-year-old Arabic-speakers saying that ISIS is the
"biggest obstacle facing the Middle East," more so than unemployment,
Israel, or Iran.

From the ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2016.

In all, ISIS is losing personnel (25,000 killed,
according to a U.S. source) as well as economic power and territory.
Leaders are escaping to the friendlier confines of Libya. Deserters are
revealing files with contact information of ISIS members. Bombings by many air forces combined with Kurd- and Baghdad-backed efforts are taking their toll on ISIS, especially on its finances. In 2015, ISIS lost
Baiji, Kobani, Sinjar, and Tikrit, amounting to 20 percent of its
territory in Syria and 40 percent in Iraq. These loses continued into
2016, with Ramadi and Palmyra already spun out of its control. An
Egyptian analyst, Abdel-Moneim Said, compares ISIS now to the last, desperate and doomed year of the Nazi Reich.

But if the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq is doomed, ISIS will live on
in other ways. First is the successor state in Libya and perhaps also
others in Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, and beyond. Second is the very idea of the caliphate, a medieval concept of Muslim supremacism that has malign implications for modern life.

So, let us hasten to bring about and then celebrate the forthcoming
demise of the Islamic State centered in Raqqa, Syria, without deluding
ourselves that ISIS is entirely finished. To achieve that requires,
unfortunately, defeating and marginalizing the entire Islamist movement.
That too may happen, but is many years off.