Frontier’s latest bulletin explores the potential impact of various Brexit and French exit (“Frexit”) scenarios on France’s trade. The UK government has invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, starting the process through which the UK will exit the European Union. It has also published its negotiating priorities, and called a snap general election to bolster its mandate. Across the Channel, the forthcoming presidential elections in France are now also raising the question of France’s future relationship with the EU, with one leading candidate promising a referendum on whether the country should leave the club, and another raising the possibility of leaving if negotiations fail to secure radical reforms.

Reflecting on these developments, Frontier’s modelling for trade in goods indicates that a scenario involving both a ‘hard’ Brexit and a ‘hard’ Frexit would reduce French exports by more than $120 billion and reduce French imports by more than $160 billion. For trade in services we find that losses could be up to $125 billion for French exports and up to $106 billion for French imports.

Frontier regularly advises public and private sector organisations in the EU and beyond on issues relating to international trade.