dnmun wrote:he did not understand. it is pretty clear. nobody has actually understood what this guy is saying. everybody talks about how charging to 4.1V is the key and yet this guy explains why that traditional legacy interpretation of the data is explained entirely by examining how the experiments were done.

he makes it very clear that is the length of time that the electrolyte is charged to high voltage is what eats up cycle life. the voltage had little to do with it. it was length of time. he even talked about how he had batteries from 1999. never charged until now.

it is like the meaning is totally missed by everyone and few even watched. or even watched the utube video where the guy showed the experiments to show where the lipo went into thermal runaway at a specific temperature in the calorimeter he was demonstrating.

Thank you sir! Many people don't actually take the time to comprehend anything anymore. If you pay attention to the video you will get a feeling for how significant the charge slippage finding is. Note Tesla realized this way back in 2010. As soon as the guy who built the high precision charger for Dalhousie graduated, Tesla hired him. Now they have one of the best labs in the world for predicting cell life (fully automated with coin cells and robots).

What people don't seem to realize are these high precision chargers are an order of magnitude more accurate than any unit that came before. It looks like just a bunch of high end Keithley bench top DMM's but the magic is in the way the Labview controller takes the readings. When making an extermely accurate/precise meausurement there is some settling time involved. This goes against the need for a fast update rate. What Aaron Smith devised was a way to know the instant the DMM measurement had settled before it actually settled by looking the the previous measurement values. This allowed for fast sampling rate combined with very high accuracy. The other trick is ultra uniform temperature chambers to hold the cells. All this is very difficult to build, but even then building it is only part of the puzzle, calibrating it and maintaining calibration is what separates the men from the boys.

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Another update. Have been able to confirm through Samsung financials and a back of a napkin calculation that Tesla is buying Model S 18650 cells from Samsung for around 90 cents per cell (Panasonic still supplies over 90% of them). I expect the gigafactory could make the same cell for around 18 cents. This would mean a 85kwh Model S pack would only cost Tesla around 1200 bucks in raw cell cost. Invest in Telsa.

flathill wrote:Another update. Have been able to confirm through Samsung financials and a back of a napkin calculation that Tesla is buying Model S 18650 cells from Samsung for around 90 cents per cell (Panasonic still supplies over 90% of them). I expect the gigafactory could make the same cell for around 18 cents. This would mean a 85kwh Model S pack would only cost Tesla around 1200 bucks in raw cell cost. Invest in Telsa.

Visited the Tesla showroom in Houston today. Salesman confirmed that the 2017 model will be priced in the $30K range and that it be batteries from the gigawatt factory that will make the price cut possible.

flathill wrote:....... I expect the gigafactory could make the same cell for around 18 cents. This would mean a 85kwh Model S pack would only cost Tesla around 1200 bucks in raw cell cost. Invest in Telsa.

Even if that were possible in just raw material costs ( unlikely !) , that would hardly cover the labour costs for the suggested 6500 workforce, let alone any return on the $5bn initial investment.
Tesla's own figures suggested that the new plant could ..."reduce pack costs by 30% bring them down to around $15,000 /pack."

arkmundi wrote:
Visited the Tesla showroom in Houston today. Salesman confirmed that the 2017 model will be priced in the $30K range and that it be batteries from the gigawatt factory that will make the price cut possible.

Well, that's locked in then, if a car salesman told you,...it must be true !!

Elon has confirmed last month in Detroit, in front of the whole auto industry, the Model 3 will be priced less than the GM Bolt! GM is dishonest when they say the bolt will cost 30k. The Bolt is going to be an economy car while the Model 3 will be closer to a 3 series BMW. GM is going to be buying cells from LG chem. Tesla is going to be making cells for near the raw material cost. Remember the current spot price of aluminum is only 80 cents per pound. Imagine a lithium cell was a solid aluminum chunk just to simplyfy things. You could build ten 18650 cells for 80 cents in raw material cost in this over simplified example. Tesla is sourcing ALL the raw materials in north america, including the small amount of cobalt they need. Remember when China makes all those cheap goods you buy they are not made with metals bought at the market spot price. China owns the mines and subsidizes its industry by offering them material for below worldwide spot prices. The USA is going to play the same game. If you cant beat em join them.

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The Chevrolet Bolt is being painted in the press as a Tesla competitor. It's not and Elon Musk agrees. And while GM says its 200-mile EV will be priced at $30,000, there's a big asterisk on that sticker – it includes incentives – incentives that Musk isn't including in the price of the Model 3.

Musk has said in the past that the Model 3 would cost $35,000, but tonight he clarified that figure doesn't include any state or federal tax incentives.1011

Just the Feds will give you $7,500 for going electric, which puts the real sticker price of the Bolt at $37,500. And if Tesla used the same math GM is promoting, that would mean the Model 3 would come in at $27,500 after current incentives.

flathill wrote:
Musk has said in the past that the Model 3 would cost $35,000, but tonight he clarified that figure doesn't include any state or federal tax incentives.1011

Just the Feds will give you $7,500 for going electric, which puts the real sticker price of the Bolt at $37,500. And if Tesla used the same math GM is promoting, that would mean the Model 3 would come in at $27,500 after current incentives.

Isn't the US federal incentives limited to the first 200,000 electric cars? If the S keeps growing at its present rate, with the X soon to join it, there is a chance that all those credits will be used up before the 3 hits the road.

35k Model S cars sold in the US at the end of 2014. That figure will probably double by the 31st of December, 2015. It they get enough batteries it could grow by 70,000 at the end of 2016 and could reach 150,000 by the 31st of December, 2017. It all depends on how much they can get Panasonic to ramp up production before the Gigafactory starts spitting out batteries.

Yup better get on the waiting list for a Model 3 ASAP the day it opens

Hopefully Chevy will also be hitting the 200000 mark around they same time with Volt and Spark sales (hybrid or not it is qualifies for the rebate if it has over a 16kwh pack). Also note the credit gradually phases out once you hit 200,000...it doesn't just end. There is also talk of just eliminating the cap based on sales all together and phasing out the credit in 2020.

This will actually be a great thing. No more shit talking from people saying EV are subsizdized toys for the rich blah blah blah...To this day I hear all the time Telsa got a government loan and electric cars will never work. GM, Ford, and a bunch of other big companies got bigger loans under the same program and still haven't paid off the loans, while Tesla paid the loan back years ago!

If you had a choice between the Bolt for $37.5k with NCM cells that will be lucky to last 8 years and the Model 3 for $35k with NCA cells that will last for over 20 years which would you choose? Not to mention styling, performance, over the air upgrades, supercharger access, etc.

I'm glad GM is making the Bolt but I still hate GM forever, with a passion, ever since they sold Ovonics battery technology to fkcuing Texaxo/Chevron and shut down the EV1 program. Not only that but they were the main funding source of the campaign to reverse the EV sales mandate in California. A law was passed in 1990 saying 5% of all vehichles sold in California had to be Zero Emission in 2001. By 2003 that number it had to grow to 10% of the market! If the mandate was not reversed today over half of all cars sold in California would be Zero Emissions! GM is partially responsible for 911 and the ongoing wars. We wouldn't be in or involved with the middle east if we didn't to ensure the oil will continue to flow.

Last edited by flathill on Feb 20 2015 8:18pm, edited 3 times in total.

flathill wrote:
Musk has said in the past that the Model 3 would cost $35,000, but tonight he clarified that figure doesn't include any state or federal tax incentives.1011......

Musk has also said in the past that the M3 would be priced in the $35-$40 k bracket !
..remember he is promoting a future product with some unpredictable cost components.
Also, there is a lot of debate on the Tesla forums regarding the M3 pricing, with many predicting that it will be very difficult to offer a 200 mile range version at the $35k price point.....$42-$45k has been suggested as more realistic for a 40kWhr equipped version capable of the 200mile target.
All highly speculative for a vehicle that is likely 3 years away from production !

flathill wrote:
....... I expect the gigafactory could make the same cell for around 18 cents. This would mean a 85kwh Model S pack would only cost Tesla around 1200 bucks in raw cell cost. Invest in Telsa.

Hillhater wrote:
Even if that were possible in just raw material costs ( unlikely !) , that would hardly cover the labour costs for the suggested 6500 workforce, let alone any return on the $5bn initial investment.
Tesla's own figures suggested that the new plant could ..."reduce pack costs by 30% bring them down to around $15,000 /pack."

I agree that $0.18 per cell isn't realistic.

But you are definitely incorrect about Tesla's 30% reduction. What they said is a 30% reduction in cell cost due to economies of scale . They clearly expect additional savings as well.

Also, there is a lot of debate on the Tesla forums regarding the M3 pricing, with many predicting that it will be very difficult to offer a 200 mile range version at the $35k price point.....$42-$45k has been suggested as more realistic for a 40kWhr equipped version capable of the 200mile target.

If it's been suggested on the Tesla forums it must be true? I'm sure they know more than Elon.

Also, there is a lot of debate on the Tesla forums regarding the M3 pricing, with many predicting that it will be very difficult to offer a 200 mile range version at the $35k price point.....$42-$45k has been suggested as more realistic for a 40kWhr equipped version capable of the 200mile target.

If it's been suggested on the Tesla forums it must be true? I'm sure they know more than Elon.

i think panasonic has committed $700 million already to the giga plant.

there is no way to estimate cost. we do not even have a clue about the form factor they will follow.

i doubt if they will continue with the 18650 form factor and would not be surprised if an entirely new form factor ends up being produced and becomes the new norm.

if their technology follows the ideas exposed in that lecture and those ideas are followed up in Tesla/Panasonic internal research then that 5 year old lecture will just be history and the technology they use may produce a 'lifetime' quality product that will radically change how people view lithium cobalt storage.

“This is a hyper-ambitious company, and the only one we cover whose stock price can realistically multiply by ten.” That’s the conclusion reached by analyst Adam Jonas and his team in a video posted for clients on Thursday, according to published reports.

Multiply by ten? The stock is at $190 right now, with a market cap of about $24 billion. Despite some recent weakness, shares have already doubled since mid 2013 and are up almost 500% over the past three years. By Morgan Stanley’s estimates, we could see $1,900 and $240 billion, good enough to make Tesla one of the top 15 biggest companies in the U.S.—placing it above the likes of Chevron CVX, -1.13% Coke KO, +1.99% and Facebook FB, +1.79% to name a few.

Morgan Stanley declined our request to see the video, which reportedly argues Tesla’s business model will continue to revolutionize the car industry.

The first point the video makes, according to ValueWalk, is the fact that Tesla, with 60% of employees involved in software engineering, is just a much a research firm as a car company. The average car company devotes just 2% of its workforce to that area. Long-term advantage Tesla.

Tesla’s emergence as a big lithium-ion battery manufacturer will also provide a tailwind. The video predicts Tesla will be five times bigger than the next biggest competitor.

And, of course, customer service. The company’s direct sales model and its constant push to improve the customer experience will also propel growth, Morgan Stanley said.

The bubbly video isn’t enough to help the stock today. Despite a big push higher for the broader market, shares of Tesla are down almost 2%. Check out Tesla’s icy drag race.

Q1 & Q2 Sales results this year will be critical for Tesla.
If they don't show a major uplift in volumes investors will start to wonder when and lose confidence.
And any further delays in Mod X release , or Mod 3 development and release will really upset any cash flow predictions.

Tesla’s announcement last week about creating a new line of batteries for use by businesses, consumers, and the electrical grid at large is a game-changer for the industry. Currently, when individuals or companies need back-up power, they usually rely on generators. Effective battery storage for large amounts of energy would be a game changer in that it would enable a separation of generation and use of energy produced through clean fuels like solar and wind power...

I don't know about you, but this is good news for us ES'ers. Means we'll be able to tap product from the factory, that its not just for Tesla's EV's.

Tesla’s new gigafactory will be an enormous production facility when it is completed and the facility should be able to produce 50 GWh of annual battery production eventually. This level of production should enable mass production of batteries at a fraction of the current cost.

So the earlier speculation on this thread seems to be shaping up as reality, that the entry of Tesla into the battery space will not just improve batteries, but lower their costs.

I'll "crystal ball" that list grows longer. And longer. And longer... And IF the Tesla factory will sell "seconds" or smaller packs or individual cells or subassemblies or something. Or that their cars (car batteries) DO survive "accidents"/collisions. Lots of "ifs". Maybe.

The renewable energy industry has been holding its collective breath for a solution to their biggest problem: energy storage.

The last several years have seen solar panel prices drop, solar installations increase, electric vehicle sales rise, and governments and businesses move toward integrating renewable energy into their operations.

brought clean energy solutions closer to mainstream. So when Elon Musk hinted about an announcement for a new product line for renewable energy storage last week, suddenly, that dream became a step closer to becoming reality.

"It signals that the storage market is at a point where end customers have been looking for big companies to have their product in the market," said Ravi Manghani, an analyst for GTM Research. "It's a small-but-growing [and] very competitive space and Tesla's putting its stake on the market."

Tesla will have a big impact on this conversation and the progression of the energy storage industry, but of course, the announcement can't change the course of history on its own -- so don't get too excited. We still need government regulations and changes in utility models, and California remains one of the few states with tangible growth in the renewable energy market and regulations in place to make sure utilities are providing storage capacity -- though there is massive growth in the market.

"We expect [the] energy storage market to grow over 10X in the next five years, and in that sense, having a company like Tesla launch products signals that the expected growth is real," Manghani said.

Of the number of customers who deploy solar, those who utilize storage systems makes up a tiny fraction -- only 0.2% of those installations had storage attached to them, Manghani said. However, his most recent report for GTM Research about the energy storage market said that the US installed 61.9 megawatts (MW) of energy storage in 2014, and 2015 will be the biggest year yet, with 220 MW installed. GTM Research reports the industry is expected to grow incredibly fast, from 100% to 250% every year.

Drivers of this growth include aging grid infrastructure, growing renewable penetration, high retail electricity prices for end-customers, and backup power for natural disasters and adverse weather events. All these factors have created what seems to be a perfect storm for energy storage, Manghani said. And that means that the old utility model is one step closer to being flipped on its head.

When we generate and store our own energy, it transforms the way we interact with it and changes our consumption patterns. With the current model, consumers who can generate their own power have to sell what they don't need back to the grid because there's no good way to store it. So utility companies can turn the profit on it because they control the storage and transmission.

"Storage gives you the ability to disconnect supply from demand," Manghani said.

For years, Tesla has been working on advancing battery technology. It's part of the secret sauce that has enabled it to leap ahead in building electric vehicles. But, tonight's announcement will be the first major product that's not an automobile. It will make Tesla no longer just a luxury car company, but a battery company.

This isn't a huge surprise considering Tesla's $5 billion investment in its Gigafactory and Musk's close ties with SolarCity where he's the chairman. SolarCity has already started offering home energy storage from its solar panels using Tesla car batteries.

Tesla's Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, is supposed to reach its full capacity by 2020 and has a planned annual lithium ion battery production of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh). The company is working with partners like Panasonic to produce batteries with less cost and waste, and more efficiency. The factory itself is supposed to achieve net zero energy when it's complete.

Recently, Bloomberg reported that Tesla is already working on a pilot program in California for its home battery storage, with about 300 homes and 11 Wal-Marts using them. Cargill is another company that also plans to use the batteries in the near future.

As you follow the announcement, here are the big questions to watch:

How much will the batteries cost? The Guardian reported the batteries may cost up to $13,000, though Pacific Gas and Electric will offer a 50% rebate for using it and financing is available.

How much power will they be able to store? Manghani said his estimate would probably be around 4 to 6 kWh for the residential batteries, as that is close to the industry standard. The Guardian reported the system offers configurations at 10 and 15 kWh.

What Tesla is about to announce about gigantic batteries, and why it matters

Tesla's tease to its battery announcement.

Image: Tesla Motors

Tonight at 8:00pm Pacific, Tesla will unveil its plans to manufacture battery storage for homes, business, and utilities. You can watch here.

The renewable energy industry has been holding its collective breath for a solution to their biggest problem: energy storage.

The last several years have seen solar panel prices drop, solar installations increase, electric vehicle sales rise, and governments and businesses move toward integrating renewable energy into their operations.

All of that has brought clean energy solutions closer to mainstream. So when Elon Musk hinted about an announcement for a new product line for renewable energy storage last week, suddenly, that dream became a step closer to becoming reality.

"It signals that the storage market is at a point where end customers have been looking for big companies to have their product in the market," said Ravi Manghani, an analyst for GTM Research. "It's a small-but-growing [and] very competitive space and Tesla's putting its stake on the market."

Tesla will have a big impact on this conversation and the progression of the energy storage industry, but of course, the announcement can't change the course of history on its own -- so don't get too excited. We still need government regulations and changes in utility models, and California remains one of the few states with tangible growth in the renewable energy market and regulations in place to make sure utilities are providing storage capacity -- though there is massive growth in the market.

"We expect [the] energy storage market to grow over 10X in the next five years, and in that sense, having a company like Tesla launch products signals that the expected growth is real," Manghani said.

Of the number of customers who deploy solar, those who utilize storage systems makes up a tiny fraction -- only 0.2% of those installations had storage attached to them, Manghani said. However, his most recent report for GTM Research about the energy storage market said that the US installed 61.9 megawatts (MW) of energy storage in 2014, and 2015 will be the biggest year yet, with 220 MW installed. GTM Research reports the industry is expected to grow incredibly fast, from 100% to 250% every year.

Drivers of this growth include aging grid infrastructure, growing renewable penetration, high retail electricity prices for end-customers, and backup power for natural disasters and adverse weather events. All these factors have created what seems to be a perfect storm for energy storage, Manghani said. And that means that the old utility model is one step closer to being flipped on its head.

When we generate and store our own energy, it transforms the way we interact with it and changes our consumption patterns. With the current model, consumers who can generate their own power have to sell what they don't need back to the grid because there's no good way to store it. So utility companies can turn the profit on it because they control the storage and transmission.

"Storage gives you the ability to disconnect supply from demand," Manghani said.

For years, Tesla has been working on advancing battery technology. It's part of the secret sauce that has enabled it to leap ahead in building electric vehicles. But, tonight's announcement will be the first major product that's not an automobile. It will make Tesla no longer just a luxury car company, but a battery company.

This isn't a huge surprise considering Tesla's $5 billion investment in its Gigafactory and Musk's close ties with SolarCity where he's the chairman. SolarCity has already started offering home energy storage from its solar panels using Tesla car batteries.

Tesla's Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, is supposed to reach its full capacity by 2020 and has a planned annual lithium ion battery production of 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh). The company is working with partners like Panasonic to produce batteries with less cost and waste, and more efficiency. The factory itself is supposed to achieve net zero energy when it's complete.

Recently, Bloomberg reported that Tesla is already working on a pilot program in California for its home battery storage, with about 300 homes and 11 Wal-Marts using them. Cargill is another company that also plans to use the batteries in the near future.

As you follow the announcement, here are the big questions to watch:

How much will the batteries cost? The Guardian reported the batteries may cost up to $13,000, though Pacific Gas and Electric will offer a 50% rebate for using it and financing is available.
How much power will they be able to store? Manghani said his estimate would probably be around 4 to 6 kWh for the residential batteries, as that is close to the industry standard. The Guardian reported the system offers configurations at 10 and 15 kWh.
Are they trying to create an ecosystem? Will other renewable energy companies and other electric vehicle companies be announced as partners to tap into Tesla's batteries?
How will this scale and will power companies partner? What renewable energy really needs to become more mainstream in the US is to move beyond California and other progressive areas. Be on the lookout for Musk to talk about plans for the scale of how many batteries Tesla will manufacture to see how big he's thinking. Also, watch to see whether any governments and/or power companies sign on as partners.

i think the announcement by jerry brown yesterday has created a market for these batteries to be used as solar storage and power flattened demand curves by soaking up power at night and providing it during the day.

Yah Mon. *But* (when it comes to stationery batts in glass tanks) I'm more of a "Lead and Acid Guy", myself. "K.I.S.S. philosophy" sort of. ("Weight" not so much of a consideration.) Using a hydrometer test the specific gravity of each cell. "Odd" stuff like that. THICK (lead) plates (`case I'm lazy).