Cohen, now with no legal representation, is likely to cooperate with federal prosecutors in New York, sources said. This development, which is believed to be imminent, will likely hit the White House, family members, staffers and counsels hard.

Although there’s no indication — yet — this any of this is true:

Michael Cohen's lawyers have *not* (yet, anyway) noticed a withdraw or sought permission from Judge Wood to do so. https://t.co/BJ7BEbumOD

And, keep in mind, it’s not just Trump who could be affected. It’s Cohen’s own family:

The thing about Michael Cohen cooperating w Mueller is that it goes way beyond flipping on Trump—it means betraying his wife’s family. His father-in-law essentially made him. The level of pressure he’s under from both sides must be unimaginable.

2/ It’s not surprising that Cohen is moving towards cooperation, if the @abcnews reports are correct. When the FBI executes a search warrant at your home and office, you’re in trouble. The judge in the Stormy Daniels case concluded Cohen is likely to be charged, and he’s right.

4/ Assuming that Cohen has information that will be useful to law enforcement—information that will lead to charges against others—he will get a deal. But one unusual complication is that Cohen is an attorney and some information he has may be about former clients.

6/ Most conversations involving criminal activity likely won’t be privileged because they don’t involve legal advice. Only conversations about legal advice are privileged. A conversation about legal advice isn’t privileged if the advice is used to further the crime.

7/ That last sentence is called the “crime/fraud” exception to attorney-client privilege. It’s more limited than some commentators suggest, but combined with the fact that most criminal conversations aren’t about legal advice, likely few of Cohen’s conversations were privileged.

8/ It’s also worth noting that federal prosecutors allege that Cohen didn’t practice law much, and thus far the documents they seized are consistent with that allegation. The retired judge reviewing the Cohen documents found that less than 1/10th of one percent were privileged.

9/ So if Cohen cooperates, he will have to tell almost all of what he knows about criminal activity to federal prosecutors, who can share that info with Mueller, other federal prosecutors, and state prosecutors.

10/ Trump could derail all of this with a pardon of Cohen. His recent talk of pardons appears to be an attempt to reduce the political damage of giving pardons. If Trump pardoned Cohen for federal crimes, state prosecutors would have to use the evidence gathered by the FBI.

11/ That could result in a cooperation deal for state, not federal authorities. By moving towards cooperation now, Cohen is signaling that he doesn’t believe he will receive a pardon—or he’s trying to get one sooner rather than later.

12/ Regardless of how it plays out, Cohen’s cooperation is a blow to the Trump team and could strengthen the case Mueller is building. How much it helps Mueller depends on what Cohen knows and how forthcoming he is. /end