000
FXUS66 KSTO 012202
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.
AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SLY FLOWALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPRRDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLDMVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS BTWN
20Z-04Z. LCL SWLY SFCWND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$