As Nate Silver notes in the video above, though, climatology is about as accurate as a weather forecast for more than a week away. Silver’s team discovered that there’s about a 21% chance of temperatures at or below 25 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, and a 31% chance of winds at or greater than 15 MPH.

In our estimates, there’s about a 90% chance that Silver was not profoundly psyched when ESPN asked him to stand outside at MetLife Stadium and deliver this report.