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Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Nettles appeared in the top ten of home runs in the league 5 times. He finished first once and second once.

If you limit it to AL, yes. I was using all of MLB on Henderson. If we want to expand it to simply "his league" Henderson appeared 16 times on the OBP list, more than 3 times as many as Nettles.

Henderson's final 8 seasons...from age 37 forward (roughly where Jeter is now), his obp was .388 in 889 games. Prior to that, his obp was .406 in 2192 games. the weighted effect of those final years was .005 on his career obp (he ended up at .401), so really the finals years did not have a huge effect.

On the top "obp" list it did. It was more than 10 spots. .05 points in OBP jumps him into the top 40 or so.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

If you limit it to AL, yes. I was using all of MLB on Henderson. If we want to expand it to simply "his league" Henderson appeared 16 times on the OBP list, more than 3 times as many as Nettles.

On the top "obp" list it did. It was more than 10 spots. .05 points in OBP jumps him into the top 40 or so.

Okay, so he would have been 40 instead of 55 or whatever. Of course, if we do the same with a bunch of other players it would effect the rankings too. It is what it is...no, I don't consider 55th, or 40th on the all time list of anything to be really 'elite'. It doesn't really matter anyway. We agree he was 55th and that he was a top ten finisher a bunch of times (I think you said 10 or 11).

He is clearly better than the 55th best position player of all time, so his ranking on the obp list doesn't help his standing anyway, the way Nettles' ranking on the home run list is the best thing you can say about him, at least statistically.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

Okay, so he would have been 40 instead of 55 or whatever. Of course, if we do the same with a bunch of other players it would effect the rankings too. It is what it is...no, I don't consider 55th, or 40th on the all time list of anything to be really 'elite'. It doesn't really matter anyway. We agree he was 55th and that he was a top ten finisher a bunch of times (I think you said 10 or 11).

Do you even read my posts? Unlike the homerun lists, the OBP list is full of guys (over 20) who had careers significantly shorter than Henderson. It's like k/9 vs total strikeouts. A guy like Moyer can be in the top 40 all time in strikeouts. Not elite because it is a counting stat and his longevity helps him. On k/9? He's in the 300s somewhere.

He is clearly better than the 55th best position player of all time, so his ranking on the obp list doesn't help his standing anyway,

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by justtxyank

Do you even read my posts? Unlike the homerun lists, the OBP list is full of guys (over 20) who had careers significantly shorter than Henderson. It's like k/9 vs total strikeouts. A guy like Moyer can be in the top 40 all time in strikeouts. Not elite because it is a counting stat and his longevity helps him. On k/9? He's in the 300s somewhere.

It actually does but you don't understand why

No, it doesn't. Not taken by itself it doesn't. it does in conjunction with all of the other things he did.

So, jump Rickey ahead of those 20 players who had signfiicantly shorter careers. Now he's 35th on the list. dude, an "elite" something is somebody in the top 10 or whatever. He's not. Now, we can argue that it's insignificant whether you're 55th or 10th...that I see the point on. But because it's statisicially insignificant doesn't change the fact that he's not an elite obp guy.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

No, it doesn't. Not taken by itself it doesn't. it does in conjunction with all of the other things he did.

So, jump Rickey ahead of those 20 players who had signfiicantly shorter careers. Now he's 35th on the list. dude, an "elite" something is somebody in the top 10 or whatever. He's not. Now, we can argue that it's insignificant whether you're 55th or 10th...that I see the point on. But because it's statisicially insignificant doesn't change the fact that he's not an elite obp guy.

We could do a full statistical breakdown using standard deviations and everything to demonstrate why Henderson being where he is on the career OBP is elite and I don't think you'd agree. Do you realize how many players qualify all time for the OBP list?

Edit: Was Jason Giambi an elite slugger? Because he is 55th on the all time slg% list. Ken Griffey Jr is 39th. Frank Robinson 40. Sammy Sosa 42. Mike Schmidt 52. Were these guys not elite sluggers?

Edit 2: Was Reggie Jackson an elite homerun hitter? Because he is 60th on the homeruns per at bat list! Jeff Bagwell 54th! Russell Branyan is 16th! I list Branyan to give you an example of why rate stat all time lists can be skewed.

Here's some other all time lists that use counting stats (so it is more apples to apples with homeruns for you)

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by justtxyank

We could do a full statistical breakdown using standard deviations and everything to demonstrate why Henderson being where he is on the career OBP is elite and I don't think you'd agree. Do you realize how many players qualify all time for the OBP list?

It's sort of pointless as all we're really debating is the definition of the word 'elite'. It doesn't matter.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

No, it doesn't. Not taken by itself it doesn't. it does in conjunction with all of the other things he did.

So, jump Rickey ahead of those 20 players who had signfiicantly shorter careers. Now he's 35th on the list. dude, an "elite" something is somebody in the top 10 or whatever. He's not. Now, we can argue that it's insignificant whether you're 55th or 10th...that I see the point on. But because it's statisicially insignificant doesn't change the fact that he's not an elite obp guy.

So to be elite in a category you have to be one of the 10 best in the history of the game? Regardless of when you played? Maybe that's the issue. Your use of the adjectives "slight" and "elite" are probably different than most.

Henderson is 16th all time in WAR. Here is the list of the folks in front of him:

Babe Ruth

Barry Bonds

Ty Cobb

Willie Mays

Hank Aaron

Tris Speaker

Ted Williams

Stan Musial

Honus Wagner

Rogers Hornsby

Eddie Collins

Lou Gehrig

Mickey Mantle

Frank Robinson

Mel Ott

Jeter, bless him, would need to have another six 1999 seasons to pass him. He'd need close to twenty 2011 seasons to pass him. I'm using WAR because it takes into account positional value, which you've been highlighting.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

You really have to dimension the statement that "it's a lot easier to hit homers than it is to get on base 40% of the time". I don't understand what that means.

There's currently 23 guys with 300+ HR's and 35 over 250. There's a handful of guys on that list that were just compilers -- never anyone that you'd label as franchise players or even mention in the same breath as the all-time greats. The list of guys with a .400+ OBP is short in large part due to how difficult it is to do.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by False1

I know you're baiting with this, but I'll bite. Thome was exceptional at avoiding outs, and exceptional at slugging, but Henderson was the better player by a good margin.

Thome's OPS+ was 147 compared to Henderson's 127. If the evidence earlier is that Henderson's OPS+ was 127 to Jeter's 118, what does this say about Thome? I realize a point is not a point on OPS+, and I actually AGREE that Henderson was the better overall player, but statistically Thome is far better than Henderson.

They had virtually the same obp (thome's two points higher, but has played 'only' 22 years), but Thome has over 300 more home runs in three fewer seasons. 300 home runs, I think we'd all agree, are worth more than 1400 stolen bases (that go along with 335 cs).

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by False1

So to be elite in a category you have to be one of the 10 best in the history of the game? Regardless of when you played? Maybe that's the issue. Your use of the adjectives "slight" and "elite" are probably different than most.

Henderson is 16th all time in WAR. Here is the list of the folks in front of him:

Babe Ruth

Barry Bonds

Ty Cobb

Willie Mays

Hank Aaron

Tris Speaker

Ted Williams

Stan Musial

Honus Wagner

Rogers Hornsby

Eddie Collins

Lou Gehrig

Mickey Mantle

Frank Robinson

Mel Ott

Jeter, bless him, would need to have another six 1999 seasons to pass him. He'd need close to twenty 2011 seasons to pass him. I'm using WAR because it takes into account positional value, which you've been highlighting.

Okay, so by WAR, Henderson is worth about a half a win more per year than Jeter. I think this is within the margin of error for WAR, though valid point I agree.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by Big_E

But it doesn't take into account "intangibles"

We can laugh all we want about the "i" word when it comes to Jeter, but I'll never be convinced that a player's value is completely and totally explained by statistics. If intangibles count for anything, Derek Jeter is a winning player. Henderson was often lazy and totally unfocused during the season. You cannot truly track the impact of jogging after balls and letting an extra base, or not busting it to force an error. I don't suggest that this would all totally change the conversation, but the way Jeter goes about his business can only help set a tone.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

Thome's OPS+ was 147 compared to Henderson's 127. If the evidence earlier is that Henderson's OPS+ was 127 to Jeter's 118, what does this say about Thome? I realize a point is not a point on OPS+, and I actually AGREE that Henderson was the better overall player, but statistically Thome is far better than Henderson.

They had virtually the same obp (thome's two points higher, but has played 'only' 22 years), but Thome has over 300 more home runs in three fewer seasons. 300 home runs, I think we'd all agree, are worth more than 1400 stolen bases (that go along with 335 cs).

I didn't use OPS+ to my recollection, thought I used wRC+. That still gives a slight edge to Thome (145 to 141), but as you've been apt to point out positional value makes a huge difference here, as Thome wasn't a good 1B/3B and played around half his games at DH.

It's not necessarily correct to say Thome was "statistically" better than Henderson. WAR for example gives Henderson an enormous edge.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

300 home runs, I think we'd all agree, are worth more than 1400 stolen bases (that go along with 335 cs).

You have to consider that the 300 HR came in the steroid era, which OPS+ and (preferably) wRC+ account for. Just looking at their offensive value yes Thome has a slight edge, but you said "player" not "hitter".

It's odd that you've been championing positional value in the Henderson/Jeter comp and then bring up a guy who is really a DH in a comp with Henderson

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by False1

You have to consider that the 300 HR came in the steroid era, which OPS+ and (preferably) wRC+ account for. Just looking at their offensive value yes Thome has a slight edge, but you said "player" not "hitter".

It's odd that you've been championing positional value in the Henderson/Jeter comp and then bring up a guy who is really a DH in a comp with Henderson

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by False1

You have to consider that the 300 HR came in the steroid era, which OPS+ and (preferably) wRC+ account for. Just looking at their offensive value yes Thome has a slight edge, but you said "player" not "hitter".

It's odd that you've been championing positional value in the Henderson/Jeter comp and then bring up a guy who is really a DH in a comp with Henderson

He's trying to make the Jeter is to Henderson as Henderson is to Thome comp.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421

Uh, no, it's not odd. It's my whole point.

Originally Posted by justtxyank

He's trying to make the Jeter is to Henderson as Henderson is to Thome comp.

But WAR doesn't care about that. WAR accounts for positional value, and Henderson far exceeds Thome in that regard and at this point it is highly unlikely (though I'd love to see it) that Jeter eclipses him either.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Originally Posted by False1

But WAR doesn't care about that. WAR accounts for positional value, and Henderson far exceeds Thome in that regard and at this point it is highly unlikely (though I'd love to see it) that Jeter eclipses him either.

Re: 2012 Derek Jeter Performance Thread

Okay, so by WAR, Henderson is worth about a half a win more per year than Jeter. I think this is within the margin of error for WAR, though valid point I agree.

I'd go by games played, since WAR is a counting stat and "years" aren't equal given time lost to injuries, and in particular Henderson's last few years where he should have retired.

So Jeter's WAR per game played is .0309. Henderson's WAR per game played is .0370. Henderson has a 20% advantage there, even though Jeter hasn't (and hopefully never does) hit a period like Henderson did at the end.

If you just look performance for Henderson up to his age 37 season, which is where Jeter finished up last year, it's .0451 - or 46% better.