Avril's 20something tackles every year just isn't cutting it either. I'm in love with Damontre Moore. He's a freak and might as well be renamed Von Miller.

Avril and KVB were already bad in run defense but they actually got worse compared to 2012. Willie Young got much worse too. Lawrence Jackson actually does a good job in run defense. Bring him back on the cheap just for that as a backup. Suh got a little worse in run d which isn't good but continue to be a beast pass rusher and SLH got a signifcant worse compared to 2011 in run defense. Missing Corey may have hurt the run D some even though Fairley beasted. Fairley was good in run D in 2011 and did great this year in run defense and pass rush. Fairley is the man, all around good DT.

Levy got worse in run D and is average in coverage, Tulloch got worse by a good amount too but did well in coverage. Durant got better in run defense but is a liability in coverage.

Keep Durant and let Levy walk. Hope Tulloch rebounds to 2011 form and gets more help in front of him especially at DE. Hope the three rookie CBs grow too. Green did average this year(actually better than Bentley) but I didn't like what I saw against the Falcons from Green on the Falcons TD drive. He got beat for at least 3 of the 5 Ryan throws for first downs. Lacey was average this year, Houston was very good except for the Falcon game. We need to bring Houston and Delmas back but get Delmas insurance with another safety. Don Carey actually has the best coverage grade of all the secondary in more limited action.

Avril walking is risky but I just can't take the inconsistency despite a good 2011. KVB,Burelson cap cuts. Levy and Corey Williams walks. Maybe one of Peterman or Raiola cap cut. Gosder depends on if Backus retires or what they do there. But I think I want Gosder to walk too and go with Reiff and Backus for a year. Gosder just isn't the run blocker we need.

So...what do we think about Joeckel, Taylor Lewan, or other prospects? I'll put my thoughts into the quick one round grade shorthand with only one prospect for each sub-grade...

A type draft

A+ Damontre Moore: I think he's the best potential DE. I hope he declares.
A Luke Joeckel: Somewhere between Joe Thomas and other elite LTs is what I've been hearing. He's kept Jake Mathews on the right side. I'm willing to live with having a dominant set of tackles who can switch with each other and keep Stafford protected.
A- Jarvis Jones: Impact player on defense and undisputed talent level. Free agents and a decline in our LB corp plus his ability to potentially convert to DE or play multiple positions should be a plus.

B solid draft

B+ Dee Milliner: Take the top ranked corner and stop worrying about our outside pass coverage. Not a bad way to go.
B Manti Te'o: A new leader on defense who can work his way up and alongside/through Tulloch.
B- Bjoern Werner: Hardworker, strong attacker who can make our dline even more bully-ish.

C curveball but whatever draft

C+ Taylor Lewan: I love the stability and investing in Oline, but would have to show he can be a LT to merit a top pick. We blew a 1st rounder on Gosder and RTs do not deserve that pick.
C Star Lotulelei: F'ing Overkill, but he's great. 5-2 defense? He should be a D or an F grade, but the sheer novelty and talent keep him in the curveball C bracket. All-Time great DT rotation. Centers and guards wouldn't sleep at nights.
C- Chance Warmack: lol@guard top 5. new salary cap eases things...still probably really dumb. The so called, "Best olineman in the country" had better be that for us to take him.

D terrible value and reach draft

D+ Barkevious Mingo: Not as bad as grade reflects, but still had some better options. Can switch places with other DEs depending on combine, offseason, and bowl performances. He's only down here because his stock has fallen.
D Kenny Vaccaro: He better run a 4.3 40 and be Eric Berry for top 5.
D- Alex Ogletree: I love him...but linebacking position is like RB. He had better be Patrick Willis to take here.

F Millen is back draft

Zach Ertz: I wouldn't argue too loudly if we took him in the 2nd. We run a 2 TE offense and could use someone who wouldn't cost us multiple games and can hold on to the ball. There is a reason why us and New England are at the top of total offense.
Justin Hunter: Not arguing against an impact receiver, but he looks like more of a project and I'd rather have some more polish here.
Keenan Allen: I like him, but maybe we should protect Stafford or try and play defense.

So...what do we think about Joeckel, Taylor Lewan, or other prospects? I'll put my thoughts into the quick one round grade shorthand with only one prospect for each sub-grade...

A type draft

A+ Damontre Moore: I think he's the best potential DE. I hope he declares.
A Luke Joeckel: Somewhere between Joe Thomas and other elite LTs is what I've been hearing. He's kept Jake Mathews on the right side. I'm willing to live with having a dominant set of tackles who can switch with each other and keep Stafford protected.
A- Jarvis Jones: Impact player on defense and undisputed talent level. Free agents and a decline in our LB corp plus his ability to potentially convert to DE or play multiple positions should be a plus.

B solid draft

B+ Dee Milliner: Take the top ranked corner and stop worrying about our outside pass coverage. Not a bad way to go.
B Manti Te'o: A new leader on defense who can work his way up and alongside/through Tulloch.
B- Bjoern Werner: Hardworker, strong attacker who can make our dline even more bully-ish.

C curveball but whatever draft

C+ Taylor Lewan: I love the stability and investing in Oline, but would have to show he can be a LT to merit a top pick. We blew a 1st rounder on Gosder and RTs do not deserve that pick.
C Star Lotulelei: F'ing Overkill, but he's great. 5-2 defense? He should be a D or an F grade, but the sheer novelty and talent keep him in the curveball C bracket. All-Time great DT rotation. Centers and guards wouldn't sleep at nights.
C- Chance Warmack: lol@guard top 5. new salary cap eases things...still probably really dumb. The so called, "Best olineman in the country" had better be that for us to take him.

D terrible value and reach draft

D+ Barkevious Mingo: Not as bad as grade reflects, but still had some better options. Can switch places with other DEs depending on combine, offseason, and bowl performances. He's only down here because his stock has fallen.
D Kenny Vaccaro: He better run a 4.3 40 and be Eric Berry for top 5.
D- Alex Ogletree: I love him...but linebacking position is like RB. He had better be Patrick Willis to take here.

F Millen is back draft

Zach Ertz: I wouldn't argue too loudly if we took him in the 2nd. We run a 2 TE offense and could use someone who wouldn't cost us multiple games and can hold on to the ball. There is a reason why us and New England are at the top of total offense.
Justin Hunter: Not arguing against an impact receiver, but he looks like more of a project and I'd rather have some more polish here.
Keenan Allen: I like him, but maybe we should protect Stafford or try and play defense.

Agreed on all grades. If we are the 6th-9th pick though those Bs and Cs and Ds become more of a reality. I hope QBs go very early but it doesn't seem like a QB year.

I could live with a stud Joeckel at LT and Reiff at RT for 10 plus years. Keep Stafford upright and much better run blocking off tackle would be real nice.

I really want a DE bad. 60 less hurries than last year, many less strip sacks and many less ints due to opposing QB having more time.

Teo I just can't see him on the outside. Are there any other stud OLBs that are athletic that can cover and play the run well. I see Levy walking in FA.

Gerald Hodges from Penn State should be solid in the late 2nd-4th rounds.
Kenny Tate is worth a late look as a nickel package coverage linebacker.
I don't really see anyone that is a substantial upgrade over Ashlee Palmer unless we go early with the pick.

I love Moore too. Agree with everything that was said. A Dline on Suh, Fairley, Moore is just downright scary.

Joeckel will work well for the future, no reason to have to explain why. My belief on Lewan is that after this bowl game (where I expect Clowney to dominate him) he will fall out of the 1st round.

Jarvis Jones scares me with his health. Not a fan really and I do not think he fits our team or philosophy. Schwartz's plan on defense is to rush 4, so a pass rushing OLB doesn't thrill me unless we change our approach.

In the second round I want to address our secondary. There should be a handful of guys there at our pick: Rhodes, Reid, Amerson, etc

After that I hope we take some young Olinemen and Wrs. Need value after this, hopefully a future replacement at OG, C, and a slot reciever (again I know)

Gunther is an old guru and can adapt to Jarvis Jones. I remember the first season of the new coaching staff when we blitzed over half of the time. We have better personnel and if we add some secondary help then it could be the change that we desperately need.

I'm not a wide9 fan though. Our DTs are good enough to collapse the pocket every play that I would prefer to only have one DE lineup wide and move the pocket to one side so we can dictate having the QB throw it into heavy coverage or have to throw across the field.

ex. just line Avril up wide and have the other DE as more of a base. Avril's wide technique can force the QB to the right and we can have a heavier zone on that side of the field to limit the QB's options. It cuts the field in half and limits the QB's options, but I'm not a defensive coordinator...

I am sure Avril and his 12.5 million are gone.
KVB and his money are gone and that leaves a gaping hole at DE
Chris Houston is going to demand bank and if we cannot fit him in there we might be looking at Greenwood, Green and Bentley.
Cherilous and Backus are expensive options which need review. Gosder is a throw away in my opinion, easy to replace, but Backus is nearing the end and very expensive.
That is 5-6 positions which will determine the direction we go. Some will be resolved before we draft.
Delmas is probably a re-sign, Levy and the rest of the defensive back seven are all up for new contracts , too. Yikes,

I am sure Avril and his 12.5 million are gone.
KVB and his money are gone and that leaves a gaping hole at DE
Chris Houston is going to demand bank and if we cannot fit him in there we might be looking at Greenwood, Green and Bentley.
Cherilous and Backus are expensive options which need review. Gosder is a throw away in my opinion, easy to replace, but Backus is nearing the end and very expensive.
That is 5-6 positions which will determine the direction we go. Some will be resolved before we draft.
Delmas is probably a re-sign, Levy and the rest of the defensive back seven are all up for new contracts , too. Yikes,

Avrils 10.6 number. But yeah Avril lowered his value this year but he'll probably hit the open market. You never know Tulloch and Houston hit the open market and they both came back.

KVB was junk this year. He served a purpose but he's addition by subtraction.

I am worried about Houston given the corner market next year. He must be priority number 1 though because just drafting a rookie CB in Round 1 to replace Houston does not make us better at all.

Backus and Gosder will be an interesting decision. I think I want Gosder to walk due to poor run blocking(it's important for RT), keep Backus for one more year and then get another right tackle after 2013 to pair with Reiff.

Delmas hopefully is back too. I wouldn't mind the franchise for him actually but a re-sign is probably better for the cap obviously. It's hard to determine his worth. The injuries drive his price down some but his agent know the Lions need him badly.

I think one of Levy and Durant will be back and either Whitehead, Palmer or Lewis will start next year. I prefer Durant back. Palmer is a free agent but he can be brought back cheap especially if he gets a chance to start. He'll jump at that.

Spievey concussions can let him walk, he's restricted if we really want him but maybe not even worth the 1.2 million tender. Lacey could come back cheap. Florence is gone. They signed Bartell to a 2 year deal to replace and get the three rookies back. Houston is the big one though that I'll be holding my breath on.

Sammie Lee Hill will be another interesting decision. See how much he is worth. Corey Williams probably walks. Hanson may retire, that is 3 million we can save right there with a rookie kicker. Fox is a restricted free agent, he probably gets the 1.2 million tender. Hilliard is a free agent, depends on Fox but he could be brought back cheap too.

Cutting KVB and Burleson won't save that much in fact they will each be about 800K more as dead money than what they are on the books this year in 2012. They will be cut because if they are not cut their cap numbers are huge in 2013 so we are saving that money but that is money not on the books yet compared to the baseline starting point of the cap number right now. What you have to do is compare the dead cap money after the cut to their cap number in 2012. That is the true savings when making a cap cut.

For instance Burlesons dead money would be 3.1 million or so if cut(not a June cut). His cap number in 2012 is 2.3 million. So it costs the Lions 3.1 million towards the cap (800K more compared more compared to 2012 (3.1-2.3)). However if they don't cut Burleson his cap number is 6.074 million which is way too high. So therefore Burleson should be cut but it doesn't save us that much in new money for 2013 just future money.

The trouble is, there are no 4-3 DE's available in the top 10 picks, never mind top 5. Moore and Mingo look like 3-4 OLB's to me and aren't big enough to play any part in stopping the run. We aren't going to contend for a Super Bowl till we can stop the run and that's why I believe Te'o will be our pick. He will add a toughness to our defense which it totally lacks today. Sure, I'd like a solid DE or a CB but we are drafting too early to get value at those positions, IMO.