Thursday, January 29, 2015

Economic sabotaguers rising up to the occasion

Right now, Pakatan leaders and supporters are spreading propaganda to
say that Malaysia will soon experience severe economic crisis.

Yes, there are challenges due to falling oil prices but this is currently a BUDGET CHALLENGE and not a ECONOMIC CRISIS.

Please know the difference.

A
BUDGET CHALLENGE is when govt made a budget forecasting certain
revenues to cover certain expenses for the year but suddenly
circumstances have changed that causes forecasted revenues to drop (such
as oil & gas revenues to govt).

This is a BUDGET issue and
can be solved by govt by juggling around - either by cutting certain
expenses or increasing certain revenues (such as increased dividends
from GLCs such as Khazanah, TNB, TM etc) or by re-timing large Capital
expenditures. (this is what PM Najib is doing today with the revised
budget to be released)

An ECONOMIC CRISIS is when our Malaysia's
economic conditions have severely weakened due to worsening consumer
confidence, or high interest rates or very weak demand from our export
markets that causes local and foreign demand to fall.

This is
simply not the case at the moment as NOT AS SINGLE ANALYST have
forecasted Malaysia having less than 4% GDP growth in 2015.

Most analysts including the world bank are forecasting growth of between 4.7% to 5.5%.

This
is because low oil prices help increase demand and growth in our export
markets, weaker Ringgit is a boost to our exports and our local
consumer demand remains intact.

Even 4% GDP growth is very good for a country like Malaysia,

In fact Singapore's GDP growth in 2014 was only 2.8% and they only forecast GDP growth of between 2-4% for 2015.

Therefore, MALAYSIA IS NOT FACING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS.

WARNING:
Pakatan leaders are trying to UNDERMINE consumer confidence in Malaysia
by continually spreading propaganda that Malaysia is experiencing
economic crisis. And if they are successful, it will destroy Malaysia's
local demand and local Investment and slow our growth.

These irresponsible people must stop doing this as it amounts to economic sabotage and is considered treason.

That was from our WHats App group. And this morning this came in.

Rogue traders are back with a vengeance to profit from the weakening
ringgit against the US dollar with one taking a short sell position
against the Malaysia ringgit amounting to USD1.2 billion (RM4.32
billion).

This particular player, a former banker, has a huge appetite for more
and is said to be working with a few hedge funds to up the stake. The
player will be revealed our next series.

The ex-banker started in September 2014 and in a short four months he
has bet at least USD1.2 billion for the ringgit to fall. He is
replaying what he did in 1997 when the greed of a few unpatriotic and
disgraceful speculators caused them to have no qualms about making
millions, if not billions, at the expense of the country. They made a
lot of money short selling currencies they believed would fall, thus
worsening the situation.

Forex traders watchers believe he is following the playbook of
another prominent ex-banker who lost his finance empire after being
exposed as among rogues who betrayed the country. He too lost his
innovative banking group and left Malaysia for Canada, only to return
later.

It tallies with a document called Dokumen Kajang that went viral some months ago. It was believes to be a blueprint prepared by Rafizi for PKR to do an economic sabotage. Whether it is true or not, Rafizi have denied. And, it need to ascertain whether Rafizi is telling the truth or not.

But, that banker is not so difficult to guess. Another posting revealed the ex-banker who is more a stockbroker than banker:

An owner of a prominent news media empire is casting undue influence
on the financial and political state of Malaysia for his own personal
monetary gain.

Sources within Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) revealed that Tong Kooi
Ong, the owner of the Edge Group and The Malaysian Insider has taken a
USD1.4 billion short position on the Ringgit through a proxy. The first
transaction took place in August 2014 and subsequent short positions
have been taken leading up to January 2015.

Tong Kooi Ong is no stranger to investments, notably during the last
financial crisis, Tong took a similar short position with Rashid Hussein
which resulted in a significant gain.

He is a former stockbroker,
financial analyst and banker who founded and built Phileo Allied Berhad,
one of the most successful and innovative financial banking groups in
Malaysia in the 1990s. Phileo Allied Bank was subsequently taken over
and merged with Maybank in 2000.

You cant compare singapore's growth with malaysia's. Thats just bad and misleading. A 2 percent for a country as singapore is pretty good compared to a 4.x percent growth for a developing state like Malaysia. Might look a mere 2.x percent but you gotta take real figures as that 2 percent might be bigger than the 4.x percent. In a state such as singapore with no timber, palm oil, cocoa, petrol, land and you name em, its a pity that malaysia is only able to grow a mere halve of singapore. Crisis or not is subjective. The way we are heading, dont be too surprised if more jump on the bandwagon. My take is we are not yet at crisis level as that would happen when oil dips below 40

When the Government puts a stop to extremist comments on both sides of the fence fairly, then people will feel more at ease. Taking action against the opposition members and their supporters for 'sedition' but allowing groups like ISMA, PERKASA etc to bark uncontrollably is not good for public perception and confidence. During Tun M's time he took appropriate action against any party viewed as extreme. Current Government should do that.