Honeymoon is over

The current situation is a far cry from the initial – and very sweet – honeymoon period Mr Turnbull enjoyed after he defeated Tony Abbott in a party-room ballot to become PM on last September 15.

The Fairfax/Ipsos poll showed the Coalition jumping from an August primary poll of 38 per cent to 45 per cent after Mr Turnbull became PM. Over the next few months this increased further to have the Coalition on a primary poll of 48 per cent, compared with Labor's 29 per cent, in November.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition went from 46 per cent under Mr Abbott to 53 per cent under Mr Turnbull. The Coalition ended the year with 56 per cent support compared with Labor's 44 per cent.

This was better than Mr Abbott's September 2013 election result in which he led the Coalition to victory against Mr Rudd with a two-party preferred polling of 53.5 per cent.

The 56 per cent two-party preferred support was also the Coalition's highest poll result since Mr Abbott was opposition leader in June 2013 and just before Kevin Rudd re-took the Labor leadership and prime ministership from then-PM Julia Gillard.

Results for Keating, Howard, Gillard, and Rudd are taken from first poll after taking office of Prime Minister. Results for Abbott, Turnbull and Shorten are averages of polling over time as Prime Minister and Opposition Leader respectively.

Has the conﬁdence of his/her party

Has a ﬁrm
grasp of social policy

Apr 2016

Oct 2015

Australian Financial Review Interactive

Interactive graphic by Les Hewitt

Class act

It wasn't just party support that was high. Voters loved Mr Turnbull as well. His personal ratings were all wildly positive as well, with the electorate rating him as in another class compared with his predecessor, Mr Abbott, and well above Mr Shorten.

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Mr Turnbull's initial net approval rating, the sum of his approval and disapproval rating, was at a whopping 51 per cent, the best result for any PM since Kevin Rudd in March of 2009.

Contrast this with the October net approval rating for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of -24 per cent, with the majority of voters disapproving of his performance.

Mr Turnbull led Mr Shorten by 51 points as preferred PM - an all-time low for the Opposition Leader - and it only got worse when voters were asked about the specific attributes of each leader.

Mr Turnbull was seen in a better light in all 11 attributes, including being well ahead in competence, having a firm grasp of economic policy and having the ability to make things happen.

In short, before the Christmas break voters swooned over Mr Turnbull, seeing him as the best PM the voters they had laid their eyes on in recent memory.

Lack of direction

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Instead, it seemed to be a two-step process of disappointment. First voters had to adjust to more conservative Mr Turnbull in areas like climate change and same-sex marriage. Then there was a convergence of policy ideas that were floated, then dismissed, that left voters confused and questioning the direction of the government.

But last week's budget attempted to appease the business community with a 10-year plan to a lower company tax rate.

The Coalition's primary polling has fallen from a high of 48 per cent in November to 44 per cent in May. Labor is still well behind on this measure, having only improved its primary vote by four points this year to 33 per cent.

In the two-party preferred polling, the Coalition is down five points to 51 per cent and Labor is up by the same amount to 49 per cent since November.

Mr Turnbull has also lost ground in the personal ratings but remains well ahead of Mr Shorten in his net approval rating and preferred PM rating.

Personal blow for Turnbull

The most telling falls have been in the personal attribute ratings, with voters marking Mr Turnbull down for his ability to make things happen (down 25 points), being a strong leader (down 20 points) and having a firm grasp of social policy (down 13 points).

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During all of this, Mr Shorten's personal rating remained largely unchanged on the attributes, with voters seeming to have a very set view of the Opposition Leader.

In addition, Mr Shorten, with assistance from new rules around how the Labor leader is selected and changed, has helped stabilise the leadership of the Labor Party after the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years.

The importance of the budget and voters' reaction to it can't be understated because the government needs a circuit breaker for the downward slide it has been on all year.

So the election campaign begins with no clear lead for either party, Turnbull the man who has not lived up to voters' probably unrealistic expectations, and Shorten the man who has begun to look much less unappealing by the mere fact of never giving up.