Wahid
Is Indonesia's Best HopePhilip Bowring
International Herald Tribune

JAKARTA - President Abdurrahman Wahid of Indonesia
faces many crises, several of his own creation. But it would be wrong to assume that he
is doomed and unwise to believe that his early removal, even if conducted
constitutionally, would be beneficial.

Whatever Mr. Wahid's physical condition,
personal failings, political ineptness and lack of administrative ability, the available
alternatives are worse. They could quickly reverse the modest progress that Indonesia
has made in devising, though barely implementing, reform.

Friendly governments
would do better to consider how they can best avoid aggravating issues. The present
situation where the International Monetary Fund appears to be the chief interlocutor
between Indonesia and the outside world is troubling. Whatever its technical merits, the
IMF's micro-agenda and unearned self-righteousness raises nationalist hackles here,
aggravating the instability which is sapping energies and making policy implementation
ever more difficult.

Expectations were always too high that with one election and
the liberal Mr. Wahid at the helm Indonesia could create a clean, decentralized,
democratic and plural system while also rebuilding a collapsed financial system.
Democracy has changed the rules but not the players and created new monetary demands on
a system imbued with corruption. Decentralization and changes in the voting system may
eventually change the players but for now reform will remain a very slow process,
whoever leads, and is partly at odds with the need for faster resolution of corporate
debts.

Mr. Wahid started with a weak hand, owing his position to maneuvering
within the Peoples' Consultative Assembly though his own party has few seats. His
behavior has weakened him further - intellectual arrogance, autocratic ways, and a
refusal to acknowledge that the power of the presidency has waned. Parliament may
be fractious and immature, but cannot be ignored.

Mr. Wahid could form a more
effective government if he were less determined to defend his own prerogatives and more
willing to make compromises with Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose PDI-P is
the largest party in Parliament. That might not improve the quality of the cabinet but
would allow Mr. Wahid to spend more time governing and less on political maneuvers. It
would also reduce the likelihood of issues being fought on the streets, where Mr.
Wahid's Muslim group has muscle. A third Wahid cabinet with more PDI-P and technocrat
membership is now a possibility but whether Mr. Wahid can change his autocratic ways is
in doubt.

But do not expect too much from cabinet changes. Failures to prosecute
Suharto era criminality or enforce bankruptcy orders is more due to the pervasiveness of
corruption than to Mr. Wahid.

It is possible that Mr. Wahid can be removed, but
the constitutional process is murky and could raise thepolitical temperature on the
streets to boiling point. Nor is there any reason to believe that Mrs. Megawati would be
an improvement. Mr. Wahid's faults are in implementation, not policy. He remains the
most inclusive figure, a Muslim leader with a mass following who is trusted by Chinese
and Christians. Given Indonesia's fragile social fabric, this alone is good reason for
him to stay. He has at least tried to find non-military solutions to the Aceh and Irian
insurgencies, and is committed to decentralization. He has an international outlook and
favors an open economy.

Mrs. Megawati owes her position to her name as former
president Sukarno's daughter, not her ideas, organizational ability or anti-corruption
zeal. She would take a more nationalist stance on the economy and is more popular in the
army because she favors a tough line on Aceh and is viewed as more easily influenced
than Mr. Wahid. But she would face as many problems with Parliament as Mr. Wahid and is
a moredivisive figure who might spark the rise of a more radical Islam.

Further
ahead new options may open up - including the return of the now divided and discredited
military. But for now the status quo, despite its many frustrations, is the best option.
It is also likely to prevail because the political elite has not changed
significantly. The Jakarta elite will be reluctant to push their personal interests to
the point of causing chaos. Society is fraying at the edges but still expects its
leaders to find compromises.

Allies should note that Indonesia's problems are in
the first place political and should receive attention at thehighest political
level. They need to quietly persuade Mr. Wahid to be more flexible while avoiding
lectures onmicro-economic issues. Public bullying of the embattled government of
this huge and proud nation is no way to help Indonesia remain a plural, united and open
society. Above all, be more patient.