It makes some sense that the difference in the number of shopping weekends is cause for large seasonal tuning to render a full apples-to-apples comparison between months. I am not so sure that a mid-week holiday would cause such a major need for imputations and extrapolations, but that is the nature of econometrics and the vain pursuit (and false comfort) of economic precision. Whatever the rationale, ZeroHedge rightly pointed out the inconsistency of results:

While there may have only been 4 shopping weekends in July 2012 vs. July 2011, that extra weekend found its way up into June 2012. Compared to June 2011, there was an extra weekend that did nothing to help the atrocious results (on a seasonally adjusted basis). Perhaps if we put the two months together to account for this shiftiness in Gregorian calendaring we can step outside these seasonal manipulations altogether. While the mainstream of economics pursues the false sense of precision that comes from these attempts, there is a much easier method of getting at what is far more important: the trend.

Using year-over-year changes strips out all of these econometric interventions into the data. Since these figures are raw, they are not adjusted for inflation either (meaning there is no argument over what properly constitutes “real” retail sales growth).

The retail sales figures from that perspective show a couple of very clear points: 1. Last year's Christmas season was not only weak and disappointing, it may have marked the inflection point in consumer spending (at least as far as retail sales measure); 2. The July "improvement" is far less impressive. June 2012 had an extra holiday shopping weekend, but registered only a 3.3% improvement over June 2011. Without an extra holiday weekend, July 2012 saw almost identical year-over-year growth; 3.4%. No matter what or how weekends were arranged within the calendar context, non-adjusted growth was not really all that inspiring in either month.

What may be worse is that since March unadjusted retail sales have consistently been running below the moving average. That demonstrates conclusively and unambiguously that momentum in the consumer segment is slowing. Inflections in retail sales, as you would expect given an economic system dominated by consumption, are followed by recessions. At this point in the “cycle” (such that there is a cycle outside of the mini-cycles created by central bank interventions) there is not much left to reverse the course.

As more and more Americans fall off the 99-week cliff into disability (best case) or the general abyss of the new structural joblessness, it is hard to see any monetary dosage or application that would be beneficial to the real economy. When you step back and try to analyze why there was an inflection in mid-to-late 2011, the combined impacts of waning job growth and exhausted government transfers under the umbrella of monetary-driven commodity pressures make for not just a tough environment or a muddle, but the reversal of everything that would be considered necessary for widespread economic health in any meaningful sense (there might be more dollars circulating but that is not really the true measure of economic success).

If this inflection in consumption is indeed valid, it makes sense that the early part of 2012 would then experience economic “volatility” – revenue pressures at firms cause them to cut back on capex or re-investment in real projects, including a decrease in the pace of hiring new workers. Manufacturing falls off (seen in the ISM and regional Fed surveys) as reduced demand from businesses works its way back into this vicious cycle of employment malaise where job growth is consistently and vitally below population growth or labor force expansion. As government transfers drop off, the segment of the economy under the gun of stagnation rises in proportion and the bifurcated economy becomes more so – except that as the troubled half grows it inevitably pulls down the half doing relatively well. What looks like a muddle of weak growth is really the rot of monetary intrusions eating at what should be a free market-driven reset to the previous dislocation of failures from past monetary episodes. And it is all in the name of some ephemeral “wealth”.

Stock prices may be higher, but the “wealth effect” is dead without the ability to turn paper portfolio values or tangible real estate “wealth” into spending through credit. It has always been about debt.

What might retail sales growth have looked like in the middle of the last decade without the $4.5 trillion in new mortgage debt and $500 billion in new consumer debt (added between 2003 and 2007)? As we are about to find out, the number of weekends and the placement of holidays would have been the least of the concerns.

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Easy credit brought demand forward. Incentives like "cash for clunkers" simply brings future purchases to the here and now. That is why 'robust' retail won't happen again.... easy credit of the last decade made shopaholics out of everyone, using their house LOC as the means. Now the gig is up.

What the fuck does retail matter anymore? There is no way the retail, or any other, tax revenues will fix this soverign debt problem.

Everything is bullshit, you know it.

If you are talking from a stock perspective, ur fuckin crazy! Short, long whatever, youll get fucked in the end.........you cant time this shit. Clearly the way to make money is not investing, its using your mind and skills and convert your toilet paper into something physical.

Just did the same with DirecTV! Outta here Jack! They call and send mail offering(s) to lower the price for what, government propaganda and mind numbing "Jersey Shore" shit. Gone...done and $100/mo to the better after tax.

I work in Dallas installing DirecTV. You'd be amazed at what kind of conditions I see on my installs. People who live in trash up to their knees, without toilets that flush, Rat feces, and cochroaches running everywhere, stinking to high heaven...YET, ordering the Mac daddy double deluxe, 2500 channel, east coast/west coast, all sports and movies HDTV package for a mere $599.00 per month. Priorities.

When I see posts like the following I also see a subliminal message stating:

--It's all their own damn fault--

That message prevents us from naming the real cause of economic collapse brought on by corporate and bankster fraud.

I suggest a reconsideration of the need to post stuff that blames poor people for engaging in escapism, that might actually be a healthy coping mechanism:

"I work in Dallas installing DirecTV. You'd be amazed at what kind of conditions I see on my installs. People who live in trash up to their knees, without toilets that flush, Rat feces, and cochroaches running everywhere, stinking to high heaven...YET, ordering the Mac daddy double deluxe, 2500 channel, east coast/west coast, all sports and movies HDTV package for a mere $599.00 per month. Priorities."

Unfortunately, anyone who can afford $599.00 a month for 'entertainment' is not poor and in now way 'down for the count'. Are you serious or just stupid? Anyone who can afford that level of cable TV is probably a banker or corporate executive....

DirecTV...after spending 3 weeks up north with only a radio, we decided we could easily trim down TV. Started by cutting all the worthless movie channels (which rarely show anything good). Will trim further in given time - but kids like sports channels...so is hard to cut it entirely. If it was just we adults (Mom and Dad), we could do with just news.

I wasted 15 minutes of my day on hold waiting for Verizon to tell me, "Well we notified you about the $6 monthly increase in your 3 room DVR, and you really won't save anything by canceling because we'll charge you $12 a box for a regular one." But, I said, when I talked to your customer service rep 2 months ago they promised the DVR charge wouldn't increase, here's the transaction number ********.

Lieing to customers has become rampant with all these monolithic companies. They'll tell you anything, then later it's "so what, go ahead and change providers, we don't CARE!"

OMG...absolutely correct! They try every trick in the book and then some.

AT&T: Nearly two years ago, I cancelled an AT&T cell phone account by phone after an outrageous bill....those bastards have continued to bill me monthly despite my returning each and every one saying I'd cancelled. I HAD NO CONTRACT, by the way. We're coming up on two years despite notices. What is up with that? Well, another stamp and letter...this time will copy the Attorney General's office, I guess.

DirectTV: Every so often (at least 1-2x/yr) they add subscriptions - mainly sports to my bill. I have to CALL them to have them removed. That should be illegal. Last call was two weeks ago. The customer service rep says, "Can I ask why you want this cancelled?" Response, "Because, as with every subscription your company adds to my account without authorization: I DIDN'T ORDER IT!"

I then asked the DirecTV rep why a strange $2 or more amount keeps arbitrarily showing up on my bill when I'm paying each in full monthly -- every time I've gone to my account in the last few months there is a straggling fee. She couldn't tell what that was about. WHAT????

Macy's account: Canceled a card I'd had for more than 20 years. I paid the account in full in January....despite this a strange fee kept being billed each month ($2, $11) - I wrote to the credit co. No response X2 months. Wrote again - threatened to file formal regulatory complaint for billing practices - 2 wks later received a "oops, an error" in response and a check to refund the erroneous fees I'd paid during those month as needed to keep account in good standing was refunded as requested.

PEOPLE: Check your accounts over thoroughly - these and other companies seem to be pulling some dastardly tricks and I've noticed a huge increase of this activity in 2012. $2, $5, $10 x all their customers = some serious unearned cash for these terrible credit/service companies and they're hoping that you're not paying attention.

I confused a poor kid at a warehouse store pushing Sat TV. Me "I don't watch TV", Him blank stare, and then "what do you mean you don't watch TV", I said I rent some discs from netflix, but don't have cable, Sat, or an over the air antenna. Finally comprehension seeps in and he realizes "well I guess I can't help you with anything then.

ALL WE WANT FROM YOU, MR TYLER DURDEN, US MINIONS, IS FOR YOU TO PROVIDE JUSTIFICATION FOR WHY WE ARE LOSING TONS OF MONEY BEING SHORT AND OWNING PHYSICAL GOLD RIGHT NOW. CAN YOU DO THAT FOR US, PLEASE? OR DO WE HAVE TO SUFFER THE USUAL SADISM FROM ZH?

there may not be justification. the primary reason why you are losing tons of money trading is because you are attempting to gain tons of money by trading. the prevalence and role of this 'business' activity is interesting topic itself.

but taking the objective of trading to be given, the following points are central on this site and relevant:

1. one would be nuts to trade in this environment and expect a reasonable outcome. manipulation and fraud are widely reported and discussed.

2. related: central banks are openly and secretively intervening in most markets.

3. captured media have effective smokescreen/propoganda in place whether intentional or not.

4. large turns are difficult to time precisely. long gold + short equities + short EUR could do okay in the end.

5. less retail/sucker participation in the market. you are trading against sharks. likely they understand sentiment on sites like this and perhaps even manipulate.

fwiw: i wish you luck & also am losing with similar strategy (not the first time).

It was me... sorry, I bought A SHIRT to please the wifey since we were out 'shopping'... (serious too)

Although, retail analysts see purchases on the horizon as the season changes (=O). I have to ask though, who buys new winter jackets and shit EVERY YEAR?!? Is your crap THAT CHEAP that it doesn't last a few months? We all know that's b.s. - it's 'fashion'

It is truely amazing but we have so many clothes that are really old but almost new condition wise. It's laughable when we see a color, patern or style come back and go to the closet to find we already have what's new. Hon has so much shit with the tags still on that's better than the new same shit. It goes to prove that we all bought so much shit in the past that we don't need anything. I have at least 5 winter leather coats/jackets. Shoes I've yet to wear. Shirts and pants to last me forever, Loads of tee shirts, underware, and socks still in the packeges. I figure I have enough shit for the rest of my life. Wish that wasn't true but have to be realistic. LOL, if we go out and spend ten bucks, I yell out "see hon, we stimulated the economy!"

I want a blender, but going to find a used one from 70's 60's if possible. Oster's still have a metal base, but the inside parts are plastic crap and don't get me started on stainless steel shit from china, it sure as hell isn't like the old American made SS.

This is an outstanding article. It emphasizes the simple yet intentionally supressed fact that our economic activity is literally dependent on the uptake of ever larger sequential batches of debt, and that we no longer have a framework measuring economic growth based on the real/true value of goods and services produced.

If the ability and/or willingness of the populace to consume larger and larger batches of debt, which in turn depends on radical fractional reserve Modern Money Mechanics successfully creating new and massive bubbles (or re-inflating old ones) is inhibited, there can be no true economic growth that takes place in our brave new world (where debt/credit is the fuel for consumption, and consumption destroys wealth by levering up already massive levels of debt/credit).

He's not perfect, but he's damn good at embracing new techology for an old man. I don't mean YouTube, my 10 yr old neice posts YouTubes, but his insistence that BLS use up to the minute witholding info, or using Visa & Mastercards RealTime data for retail sales- he's on the right track. And I like when he wears his black shirt.

We have an economy where we have sub 2% inflation, where people who don't look for jobs are working, where those who save are harming job creation and where a bald professor in economics who has never tried real life is the highest priest. I refuse to join this church of insanity, which seems to have overtaken Christianity as the biggest religion on earth.

As it happens, Julia has a receipt from just before Obama took office for the same items. Same groceries, pre-Obama. What does she find? She’s now paying higher prices. There’s been a nearly 15 percent increase since Mr. Obama took office."

I want to know whether an '08 style collapse is going to happen after Labor Day and before the November election. That said, I am certain no one posting on ZH, in either article, quip, comment, video, chart or cartoon can make that call or foretell an outcome one way or another. More muddle and more inertia are the most likely outcomes.

Crystal balls usuallyvdon't work, with '08 being a possible ecception. No one has the foggiest clue what direction the economy will take.

"jplotinusI want to know whether an '08 style collapse is going to happen after Labor Day and before the November election. That said, I am certain no one posting on ZH, in either article, quip, comment, video, chart or cartoon can make that call or foretell an outcome one way or another. More muddle and more inertia are the most likely outcomes."

No crystal ball but I would venture to say that all depends on QE they get it the crash is after the election IMHO

Retail sales are the total amounts wrung up in retail stores, gas stations etc. and are adjusted for inflation, so if you have a 5% increase in sales but 2% inflation then the real reported increase is 3%.

What we have is a world where inflation is raging in many sectors of retail and that is being adjusted for what the Fed and the BLS claim is near zero inflation, so little or no adjustment. So, of course you are going to get what looks like great increases in sales when we know for a fact on several levels that simply cannot be possible. Household wealth, incomes, and consumer credit are all falling, at least in the bottom 90% of the population, so where is the money coming from to pay for all the sales?

In reality sales in total dollar amounts have to be flat to declining, while units sold are each more expensive so those are plunging. That is even if we are selling/buying the same dollar amounts of goods fewer goods are being retailed, and that feeds into the lower wages and wealth as fewer people are needed to produce goods.

If $10 of hamburger is substituted for $10 of filet (or perhaps dog food eventually) on the brides shopping list, there would be no change to retail sales (although there is a very real decrease to the standard of living).

In my little internet shop, where I sell Christmas items, sales had been slowly increasing since January (when they die, of coures), heading into my busy season that generally starts after the kids go to school in the fall. In June, my graph looked like a hockey stick. I was quite pleased and dreaming that maybe things were about to take off for me. Then, shortly after the 4th of July, everything just crashed. You should see my graph. Its as scary as anything I have seen on this site. I have had literally had nothing since. I'm not even getting any traffic. Something really bad is going on.

Yep, its the free market at work even in a depressed economy because the government hasn't killed it yet. The jackboots keep stomping around on the cement but the dandelions keep pushing up through the cracks.

What Bernanke calls his "wealth effect" is just another word for a bubble. What everyone else considers to be a mirage of prosperity, the eternal academic thinks of as the real thing! I suggest it's Bernanke hubris instead!

If a market that defies risk, analysis, data, and reality and continues to march higher and higher, isn't a bubble, I don't know what is! This stock market is the very definition of a bubble!

I have noticed some serious changes in the way people are shopping at two of our local stores. People are being very careful and I've never seen so many purchases of canned products. With a large family w/4 pets - I'm at the stores in town at least once per week.

I was chatting with an elderly couple (one disabled) who had stopped me to ask for help in connection with a particular product in a jar. They had a flat of canned milk in their cart (on sale) and many canned veggies that were on sale - and at the register I noticed they had no fresh items. This is typical around here this year, it seems. I glance at carts and it is a little disturbing.

I especially worry about the elderly folks like these who may not be eating properly because of money woes. I'm hoping I only see them on the days when they are restocking the pantry w/canned goods...but I think not. Hopefully they are saving these purchases for the 2x/month local farmer's market.

Hopefully kids out there are getting what they need to grow their minds and bodies properly - but I think not.

Was also going to mention that I've noticed a lot of folks - young and old who are paying for grocery items in coins. It seems they are breaking into their coin stashes to pay for goods. Thought it was just one day - so made it a point to glance around during our shopping trips....and nearly every time I've been at the store in the past month, I've seen at least one person making a food-4-coin transaction.

"And it's only going to get much worse with a lame duck dictator -- Emperor Obama -- over the next four years! There won't be much left of this economy after he's done with it!"

I should like to remind the poster that there was next to nothing in the economy when Onama took office. That said, I am not here making a "blame Bush" implied statement, either.

Obama chose to continue the bankstas bailouts and the illegal warring. He also declined to pursue war crimes charges against Bush&Co.", thus staking out a status quo approach to governance. That was his choice.

I cannot say he was wrong to do that. I can say I disagree with that milquetoast direction. But, I am not responsible for social cohesion, he is. Any departure from the status quo over the last 4 years could have resulted in civil war or societal disintegration.

Obama merits credit for making everyone equally upset. In these times, that is about the best that could be done.

If anyone here has a better idea, name it.

Oh, spare me your ideological diatribes of any and all flavors. Libertarian, free market, socialist, whatever. The USA is too fragmented, too angry and too self- absorbed, at the individual level, to come together around any solution that deviates in the least bit from that which passes for the norm. Or, in any event, that appears to have been Obama's calculation and I cannot fault him for calling it that way.

You can also spare me the prepped rhetoric as well. What kind of life do people think they'd live if everyday was lived in anticipation of having to win a gun battle for survival?

We are all in this mess together. Your MREs, bullets and PM stashes are but a distraction, an illusion and an anger projection.

Why don't you just look to the corrupt third world for answers to your questions. Look to Greece if you like, an economy that is nearly half "underground", paying nothing is sales or income tax. Corruption comes from a beast that is so large no one can even keep track of the monies it wastes. Obama has done nothing out of anything but self interest so spare me your false pretense that upsetting people is the best anyone could do. He has divided this country by pitting one group of dependent people against another of self suffeciency, one of one color against one of another. No charges against the banksters nor politicians of the oligarchy. Once you wake up and realize there is no difference between the parties you just might feel better too. Mostly I just wonder what the hell was your point...

<<What might retail sales growth have looked like in the middle of the last decade without the $4.5 trillion in new mortgage debt and $500 billion in new consumer debt (added between 2003 and 2007)? >>

The only goods I buy are canned goods at the grocery store, bushels of good food at the farmers' markets for home canning, seeds and fruit trees/bushes for the garden, ammo, and whatever else I can buy to be more self-sufficient. I spend only locally or with American only (not multinational) corporations wherever possible. Bought a wood cookstove las year, getting ready to pull the trigger on solar hot water next month. All without debt. The remainder goes to physical...well, whatever fell overboard in that boating accident.

Retail can continue to suck for the multinationals and the banks can continue to lose customers - the sooner they die the sooner I'll be happier.

So the American BOOM continues. Stocks will move up another 20-30% as liquidity, rates, FED, banks, consumers, housing, exports ALL continue to move higher. The forecasts of depression are ALL completely wrong.

My point is that Obama merits respect for maintaining social cohesiveness when that state of affairs could not be taken for granted. Rs hate Obama, or, so we're told. Yet, when the time came to offer up a replacement, they appear to have settled upon someone they, the Rs, don't even like. And, that for good reason. There's nothing to like about Romney and he just might have been the best of the limited (in stature) choices they had to select from.

I don't know why the R dislike of Obama did not translate into an inspiring alternative. Of course, I am here using the word "alternative" in a limited way. There is no political difference between R and D in either domestic or foreign policy. Nor has there ever been. The USA does not have political choice. All elected officials must comport themselves as though corporatism were the only political policy on earth. We know nothing else and we will get nothing else until we decide to change it.

Libertarians and socialists should team up and agree to put each other on ballots so they don't have to vote or not for Democricans or Republicrats.

I am skeptical about the retention of social cohesiveness, personally I think the society is more polarized than at any time in 150 years. Putting Obama in office bought the compliance of blacks for as long as he is in office and they will put up with anything as long as he is the figurehead, once he is gone that will end.

I would argue that the only thread holding the Disunited States together is the currency, and once the USD loses its global clout that will be the end of it.

With all due respect --- You've got to be kidding - OWEBama seems to thrive on pulling groups apart, turning one against another and pulling the "race card" at every possible opportunity. He's the biggest blame thrower in history.

As I said, Rs hate Obama. I never tire of seeing new reasons for it. Thank you, CoolBeans, for your additions. Pray tell, though, why on earth was Romney offered up as an alternative?

For that matter, what makes you think the tendency towards expression of hatred will end with Obama? Once that path is entered, it can be hard to stop it.

My recollection of the early part of Obama's term is that he bent over backwards to appease Rs, thus sacrificing his support base. He has gone out of his way to distance himself from progressive solutions and has taken to channeling the likes of Coolidge (the business of America is business) and Hoover (prosperity ...around the corner) and not FDR at a time when he could have channeled the latter.

But, once again, that is easy for me to say because I'm not responsible for social cohesion. We hate ourselves. We take it out on ourselves and we blame each other for it.

All politicians are in the game only to better their own position. They deserve no respect. It is a nice gig with good pay and excellent benefits while they last, though.

What is your fixation with social cohesion, anyway? We are a diverse and varied nation that depends on this difference to create our "American Dream". If you don't have as much as your neighbor, your parents, your Hollywood idol, then you strive to achieve that level. A strong dichotomy creates tension and stokes the work ethic of honest folks.

Then, there are those who choose to steal or defraud others to make their American Dream come true.

I shoot them. May have to eat them too in the near future. I have stocked a bunch of cheap teriyaki sauce from the Dollar Tree just in case....

Perhaps YOU should apply for a job as an Obama advisor. Sounds like you have all the answers. You may have to work on your arguments, however as you have thus far only acted on defense vs. providing a list of redeeming qualities you see in him that would justify a second term for the worst president in history. I am neither Dem nor Repub so don't go pinning all that Repub hate on me, Sir.

The man is an arrogant, power-craving, devisive, sarcastic, narcissitic socio-path who would say anything to get re-elected. But, that is my humble opinion and why he would never get my vote. To each his own and I respect your right to have a different prospective.