Saturday, July 31, 2010

Today there are many chuckles for crusty denizens of the Centre Right in a tour de force of Carter, Goff and the rest of the Labour rabble.

Here's the best one liner:-

What Cunliffe lacks in charisma, he makes up for in supreme self-confidence - a trait which fails to impress many of his colleagues who, to put it crudely, see him as someone who is up himself.

The underlying message from Mr Armstrong appears to be that Labour is ******. Essentially, they possess neither the courage nor the tools to make the changes necessary for electoral success.

He pours cold water on their desperate adulation of Winston Peters by pointing out the obvious - Winston will take more votes from Labour than he will from National. Adolf suspects that Peters may finish up inviting a much diminished Labour into coalition as the junior partner. They suit each other.

And having enjoyed such a supreme breakfast, now comes the glass of sparkling champagne.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Tevor Mallard has adroitly introduced to the public the fact that Chis Carter recently took a trip to Tibet. What makes this little matter more than of passing interest is that the trip was not authorised by the Labour Caucus, let alone the Leader.

Adolf wants to know therefore, who paid for the trip?

Does Parliamentary Services authorize unlimited travel for all back benchers and their assorted hangers on to any destination in the world, on any whim and with any flimsy excuse? What are the criteria for approval and payment of these expenses? Adolf struggles to imagine what possible benefit might accrue to the NZ tax payer from sending the Petulant Poofter and his little mate on an all expenses paid business class luxury trip to Shangri La in search of a cure for the aging process.

So, will someone who knows how please lodge an official request for all documentation associated with this unauthorized trip?

One can be confident they didn't stay at the local back packers' joint.

Much has already been written on the extraordinary events of yesterday. I am particularly attracted to the Chris Trotter blog post and those by Inventory2 on the previous post. Their arguments are worth developing

It is a fact that the Labour Party has a very small membership and smaller activist base. Much of it comes from the Trade Union (or Left) side of Labour. They are becoming (have become) increasing concerned with the 'National Lite' policy direction taken by Goff who is seen as aligned with the caucus 'Right' and less kindly disposed to the Union, Rainbow and Feminist factions. His move to endorse National's proposal to allow workers to 'cash in' their 4th weeks holiday almost amounts to treason in their eyes.

And so it was that Carter yesterday executed would was perhaps the most botched up non-coup in New Zealand political history.

Read zip into the fact the the Labour caucus voted unanimously to expel him. Who in that bunch of incompetents would have dared to do otherwise?

But the fact remains that Goff is the the catalyst for Labour's discontent rather than Carter. The messenger shoots himself in the foot and Goff shoots the messenger and all the while Cunliffe pledges total loyalty.

When Adolf wants to get a fair and balanced picture of events political he relies on the combined wisdom of four bloggers who, whatever their other foibles might be, are intelligent and astute observers.

David FarrarWhaleoilGoonerChris Trotter

David's analysis this morning sits easily with me, although I think he underestimates the 'petulant poof' aspect of yesterday's events and the loose cannon risk to Labour of the same, between now and election time. The most serious damage to Labour has been inflicted by cementing in the public mind that a vote for Labour in 2011 is a vote for Peters. Carter is looking for a leader who can accommodate Peters. In Carters bent mind, Goff's greatest deficiency is his apparent inability and unwillingness to deal with Peters.

Whaleoil, steeped in politics from the mother's breast, looks at the fortunes of the parties in a by-election or the next general election. Adolf can't see why National would bother too much trying to win the seat, unless Peters stands in which case there is a risk some National supporters might vote for Peters and get him over the top. Likewise, Labour is in a bind. Twyford brings back Tizard and Little risks losing to Carter - the latter would be a serious blunder and would render Little a laughing stock for the next ten years.

Gooner, closely enmeshed in politics for ten years or more, examines the internal factional warfare within Labour and points to the grubby fingerprints of Helen Clark all over the incriminating hand written envelope. I think in this he is right. The Feminazi/gaylesbo faction has made it's move, in cahoots with the thugs from Labour. They are a force with which to be reckoned and fortunately for the Centre Right, they will prevail and keep Labour in opposition for a long long time.

Chris Trotter, examines Carter's motivation for becoming the divine wind of Labour. Basically, the poofter who is no longer comfortable without the protection of all the other gay lesbos.

So what does Adolf think? We are seeing a battle between Clark and her acolytes on one side and a resurgent new style Labour on the other. Clark is winning by a mile and NACTionalMP are larrrfing their arses off.

Initially I thought Carter had indulged in an enormous act of self indulgent pique but now I think that Gooner and Farrar are pretty close to the mark. Carter has lifted the veil and brought into the public eye the simmering unrest within Labour and when the games are over and the enemies of Goff and the left faction of Labour have prevailed, he will receive his reward or at least expects to. One thing is for sure, like Winston Peters, he will not easily walk away from the trough.

The funniest admission was Carter's assertion that the Labour Party is broke. That tells you so much about the state of the outfit. No members, no money, no ideas and no brains. That is Clark's legacy to Labour as she continues to exert her malevolent influence from afar.

Clark was of the liberal left of the Labour party; Goff is from the more conservative right of the party. So is Mallard, and so is George Hawkins. Who are these two in the greater scheme of things? Mallard has written of his dislike of Carter on the labour blog quite a few times, and Hawkins was mentioned in the letter as someone likely to be "replaced" in his electorate by the EPMU faction.

Carter is certainly of the left, and is probably cringing at the possibility (extreme that it is) of having to work with Winston Peters next year as Labour's "go to" man for a coalition. I don't imagine an old conservative such as Winston and a gay liberal such as Carter get along very well. I could be wrong.

Carter is probably looking at the polls and thinking Labour's only chance is with Winston as a Goff-led party is unlikely to poll well enough to need just the Greens. After all, MMP elections are almost presidential in nature and so a Goff v Key contest is not really one at all. Carter would want a left-wing government, rather than a centre-left one. He has a leader from the right of the party; he sees the socially conservative/reactionary Winston as the only option for Labour; and he writes of the left-wing union bloc trying to overthrow another Labour MP from the right - George Hawkins. He dislikes the right-tinged direction of the party under Goff, evidenced by his comment on the choice on cashing in the fourth week leave.

Is Carter right in his comments about Goff? Well I'll leave that to Clark hagiographer, Brian Edwards. If these comments didn't come straight from New York, then I suspect they came from New York via Labour in Wellington.

Q. Is he right that there is widespread dissatisfaction in the Labour caucus with Goff’s performance as Leader?

A. My understanding is that there is widespread dissatisfaction with his performance in the polls.

Q. Is Carter right that a majority of the Labour caucus doubt that Labour can win the next election?

A. Not at all. Anyone who voted not to suspend Carter would effectively have been declaring that they agreed with his view that Goff could not hope to win the election. Anything other than a unanimous vote would have had the Press Gallery hunting to find the disaffected.

Q. Can Goff win the next election?

A. Probably not.

Q. What chance has Carter of winning Te Atatu as an Independent or Independent Labour candidate?

A. None. Labour voters are Labour voters. Their loyalty is first and foremost to the Party.

Not only was he stupid enough to try on something so childishly stupid but he stood there in front of his despised leader and ADMITTED that he did it. (Goff recognised Carter's handwriting on the envelope!!!!! How clueless is that?)

Didn't they teach Chris Carter that the default position when questioned on ANYTHING is to lie and when confronted with such calumny as this it is LIE THROUGH YOUR TEETH.

Joy oh joy. By-election in Te Atutu, anyone?

Update:

Well FMDG! Carter has arrived in Auckland 'feeling liberated' according to Stuff. He's holding a press conference, for God's sake. What for? To announce the by-election?

The Reserve Bank makes a slight adjustment to the OCR, which adjustment has been long expected and predicted by commentators and the good old tabloid herald hits the headline button with:

Bollard Hikes OCR to 3%

Judith Collins is absolutely right in her observation that the media is largely responsible for the loss of respect shown by the public to the police. When police are continually referred to as cops, when police actions during pursuits are constantly sensationalised with not a mention of the fact that the people being chased are actually BAD BASTARDS who have defied the lawful instruction of an officer, then it is no wonder that eventually respect is eroded.

What surprises me most is that people who should know better would argue that she's wrong.

The same cheap shots are now being used to denigrate the Reserve Bank.

Two tragedies in yesterday's news should be a reminder to all that the key to keeping our children safe will never be found by simply fixing CYFS' obvious failings, but by holding parents accountable, United Future leader Peter Dunne said today.

"It means that you don't go from violent relationship to violent relationship, dragging your kids through multiple schools and myriad houses, until finally some thug does them in, and then simply turn around and ask why the system failed you.

"And yes, the system does fail, but there is altogether another failure that we as a society need to address, and it is a failure of families, a failure of parenting.

"When these tragedies occur - while we rightly ask questions of the State apparatus that is there to intervene in such situations and too often fails to do so - we must also turn to the parents ... the mothers, the fathers, and say 'where were you when your child needed you; when you're child was in danger?'

"There is too little responsibility at an individual and family level."

But Dunne, like most of our politicians, is too gutless to promote those philosophies. Instead he goes for the easy solution - another government agency.

What follows that? An agency to monitor that agency and so on and so on?

Further to yesterday's post about the wage gap with Australia increasing further under National, here's a fine attempt to pull the wool over our eyes, from Gerry Brownlee:

After the tax cuts came through in October, the gap between after-tax earnings would shrink from $238 in 2008 and $247 in March this year to $227, he said.

It seems they have come up with a way to reduce the wage gap after all - transfer taxation from direct taxation via income tax to indirect taxation via GST and the ETS, then use only "after-tax earnings" for your comparison. Elegant sleight of hand to fiddle the figures - we're still paying as much tax relative to Aussies, but less of it's taken into account when comparing incomes.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

The "very vicious" attack arose from "a situation where there has been a growing lack of respect for the rule of law, and all the attacks on police in the media and elsewhere doesn't help," she said.

"I think it's very important to acknowledge that over the last decade or so there have been numerous attacks (in the media) on the police. There have been the reports into police conduct, all those sorts of things, none of which have actually encouraged people to increase their respect for the police."

Asked if she was saying media reports were a factor in yesterday's attack, Ms Collins said: "No, I'm certainly not saying [that]. You shouldn't jump to conclusions."

I see that Mr Goff has put his head up over the parapet to say that he supports the lowering of the blood alcohol limit to 0.5%.

Would it be churlish to ask why, if it is such a brilliant idea, he didn't move to implement the reduction during the nine years he was a senior cabinet member and part of that time Minister of Justice?

The Herald has provided a free forum for so called investment adviser Gareth Morgan to 'build up the brand and image' of his firm which so far provides a graveyard for gullible Kiwisaver investors in which they can bury their contributions alongside those of their respective employers.

"The biggest contrast is in the growth sector where the Gareth Morgan Growth fund has attracted the most money at $121 million but is the worst performer over two years and bottom of the pack over the last three months.

The Gareth Morgan Balanced fund was also the largest balanced fund at $165 million but was second from bottom over two years and 18th out of 27 over the last three months."

It's time this financial undertaker made an undertaking to get out of the advice business. Clearly, he is a not much more than a mouthier version of Bryers and Petrecovic.

Remember how right-wing bloggers used to write all the time about the wage gap with Australia, how it was all Helen Clark's fault and getting rid of Labour would lead to an improvement in our situation relative to Oz? It seemed like every other post was about NZers fleeing to Australia for the money. Hell, even John Key was saying it.

In vain did lefties point out that Oz wages are higher largely due to them not having crushed the unions like we did and having higher productivity due to reasons other than which party was in govt, and that a change of govt here was unlikely to affect that. How the right-wing bloggers ridiculed us! Ignorant of economics, we were. Partisan Labourites, we were. What rapid change we'd see with a decent man at the helm, they said.

Now completed one month.Averaging 60 hours per week.Still having a blast.4 kilos heavier.Watching in wonderment as my holiday days accrue.Weeping impotently as I watch the tax come out.And still trying to return personal emails received weeks ago.Adolf, will call this week about the Bolivian tin mine plan. If I find time......

Saturday, July 24, 2010

John Dewar, fresh out on parole, has chosen an odd way to pursue his aim to "slip quietly back into his life with [his family]", by whinging at length to journos.

Dewar, readers may recall, was sentenced for his role in covering up the activities of convicted Police rapists Shipton and Schollum, and accused rapist Rickards, relating to their involvement with Louise Nicholls. His statements to the journos make me glad I was never reliant on him investigating anything, as the most basic elements of logic seem to be beyond him - witness this classic:

She was not a rape victim, no-one has ever been convicted, the woman is an imposter.

As a former police officer, Dewar should be more aware than most people that the fact no-one was convicted for a particular crime doesn't mean the crime didn't take place. I'm left wondering whether Dewar thinks not-guilty verdicts mean OJ Simpson and David Bain were also proven innocent.

Friday, July 23, 2010

There was a time when many MPs from across the political spectrum had first hand experience of the military. There was a degree of corporate knowledge and understanding of the military ethos.

No longer. Someone will correct me if I am wrong but until recently the only MPs to have served in our armed forces were Wayne Mapp and Heather Roy (aka Private Benjamin given her penchant for jumping into uniform given the slightest opportunity ... I digress).

In an attempt to redress this Minister Mapp has instituted a programme that allows MPs to spend a week with each of three services. One of the first to sign up to this was Amy Adams, MP for Selwyn. She has just completed a week with the Navy and said it was a valuable and enriching experience.

No-one would ever pretend that those who avail themselves of the opportunity offered are going to become instant experts on things military. But they will meet our soldiers, sailors and airmen at the coalface and gain an inkling of their professionalism as well as hearing at first hand the issues that concern them.

The Government will, in the next little while, table in the House its response to the Law Commission Report 'A New Scheme for Veterans' encompassing a review of the War Pensions Act 1954.

The Law Commission adopted two fundamental principles as a general policy approach in undertaking the review. They were ....

(1) Veterans are entitled to all of the benefits, allowances and assistance to which every other New Zealander is entitled.

(2) Veterans who have suffered as a result of being put in harm's way deserve to be recompensed over and above the entitlements of ordinary citizens who are not veterans.

Pretty simple really and mirrors the approach taken in similar democracies overseas.

There will be those out there who say yes, but in these times of financial constraint where's the money to fund such largesse?

Fair Question perhaps and the answer is in the Report. Of the 13,935 recipients of War Disablement Pensions (2007 figure) over 99.5% (13,876) attach to service before 1 April 1974 (the introduction of ACC) and of the 13,935 over 50% are WW2 veterans.

The reality is that the veteran community is dying off fast. In ten years time the youngest WW2 veteran will be 92. They will be counted in the 100s. At the other end of the scale the youngest Vietnam veteran will be 68.

The Government can afford to be generous in its response. This is one group of pensioners who are going to 'just fade away'.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

The other day I watched a documentary on the Six Day War in which Israel, with a disadvantage of perhaps ten to one, comprehensively defeated Egypt, Syria and Jordan and their numerous Arab state supporters.

Adolf speculates on a possible repeat performance during coming months.

Unorthodox strategy

I was fascinated to see the Israelis had carefully traced transportable' routes through the supposedly impenetrable desert terrain. The enemy did not expect an attack because 'everybody knew' you could not drive tanks and vehicles through there. Today' everybody knows' Israel can't overfly Iran because to do so would need the use of other countries' airspace.

Superior Intelligence

The Israelis had a master spy operating at a very high level in Damascus. They knew everything they needed to know about the defenses of the Golan Heights. By other means they knew everything they needed about the daily habits of the Egyptian Air Force. One wonders what sources they might have today in Iran?

Innovative Technology

Egypt had modern state of the art powerful Russian tanks. Israel took hundreds of American war surplus Sherman tanks and modified them to produce large numbers of a superior weapon for the local conditions. The Egyptians were out gunned initially and then finished off by the Israeli air force when their generals panicked and retreated. The Uzi sub machine gun was thought to be decisive against the long and clumsy AK47 in close quarter combat on the Golan Heights.

Timing and Surprise

Egypt's air force and army were knocked out before Syria and Jordan had time to scratch their respective arses, let alone react, thereby allowing Israel to bring concentrated force to bear on the Golan Heights and defeat Syria.

Rigorous Training

The best one liner in the documentary summed it up.

"Israel trained for war while Egypt trained for street parades in Cairo."

So what does it all mean for today? What might happen if these same qualities, characteristics and political pressures are applied today? Here's a bit of idle Adolfian speculation. Lets call it:

AfterDinnerJacket - To The Cleaners

In February 2011, tiring of constant Iranian sponsored mayhem in its streets, Iraq moves its best troops and armour to the Iranian border. In the face of the now imminent arrival of an Iranian nuclear arsenal and increasingly bellicose statements from Iran, the Kenyan Jackass plans a visit to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Baghdad, during which he will personally save the Middle East from itself.

In Tel Aviv, Israel tells Obama what he wants to hear and what they want Iran to hear and sends him off to Tehran. On the second day of Obama's visit to Tehran, Iraqi troops cross the Iranian border in large numbers, allegedly chasing insurgents. While the world holds it's breath, and Iran is looking the other way, Israel launches an air strike via Saudi airspace which smashes the Iranian early warning system and delivers tactical nuclear weapons to each of the potential Iranian nuclear weapons delivery sites. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq and a few other Arab states heave quiet sighs of relief.

Iran panics and seizes the Kenyan buffoon, holding him hostage and demanding the US withdraw all it's naval forces from the region. The Pres is unable to speak on account of his teleprompter got damaged in the scuffle.

The US Vice President has a heart attack during an emergency joint session of Congress which resolves to send Red Cross parcels. Meanwhile, US carrier borne forces clean out the Revolutionary Guards and the US navy promptly sinks Iran's small submarine fleet.

Iraqi troops push on to Tehran and install an interim government.

Diplomatic sources indicate to the interim government that the US does not want the Pres back as while he's been away the economy has improved and small businesses have started to employ people again. Anyway, new information reveals he is an illegal alien and he is sent off to Kenya, where he belongs, saving all the time money and energy associated with impeachment.

Laser beams have been used for the first time in naval warfare to shoot down aircraft, it can be disclosed.

Monday, July 19, 2010

From City Journal, read the whole piece to understand the origins of the crash. Government and human greed. Too big to fail means bank took ever greater risks.

Over the two decades leading up to 2008, financial markets were anything but free. The nuts-and-bolts government infrastructure that free markets require to thrive—healthy fear of failure, respect for the rule of law, and fair rules for everyone—was crumbling.

In 1975, the City of New York looked close to defaulting on its municipal bonds, as Charles Gasparino, now a Fox Business reporter, recalls in The Sellout: How Three Decades of Wall Street Greed and Government Mismanagement Destroyed the Global Financial System. But a young bond salesman named Jimmy Cayne—the pot-smoking, bridge-playing future CEO of Bear Stearns—didn’t think his city would walk away from its debt. Cayne bought tens of millions of dollars’ worth of New York’s bonds from panicked investors, who were selling them for pennies on the dollar. When the state and the feds came through with a rescue, Cayne had made a “small fortune” for his firm. It was a great trade. But Gasparino fails to mention the most fateful part of the tale: Cayne undoubtedly absorbed the lesson that the federal government, fearful of the disruptive consequences, would not let big borrowers default. He was among the first to bet on bailouts.

The week-end in which the National Party Conference saw the most successful raid ever on the left's voter base (and the left still has not realised is was done over) and the most unsuccessful ever foray by a blogger into political lobbying.

Adolf won't have much to say about the latter because those things are best dealt with quietly out of the public gaze.

Chris Trotter sums it up brilliantly, as only he can. Essentially he is saying what many already know - Labour has become arrogant and is hopelessly out of touch with the people who twenty years ago would have been its strength. Adolf's description of this phenomenon would be to describe them as the party of poofs, teachers and shop stewards with not a real worker to be seen.

The comments thread is full of lefties screaming about the 'iniquity' of Mr Key's 90 day employment deal as though it is the end of the free world as we know it. Never mind the fact that all other western democracies have had such employment conditions for yonks and never mind that Dept of Labour statistics overwhelmingly point to the success of the scheme with hundred of new jobs which otherwise would not exist.

What they've all missed is the political implication of this scheme. It has locked in for National the undying gratitude of every youngster who, as a result of the 90 day trial period, now has his or her first real job and a chance to prove his or her value to the boss. That undying gratitude will be manifested in a lifetime of votes for National. These are the very people who, twenty years ago, would have been groomed by their union shop stewards to become good little lefties. The dirty little child groomers have been sent packing from the work place. Now they have to justify their presence or be booted out.

You've got to hand it to John Key. The currency trader is a past master at slipping in under Labour's guard and kicking them in the crutch when all the time they thought he was belting them in the head.

The only comment Adolf has concerning Whaleoil's self imposed exile from the National Party is that I'm surprised it took so long and I expect he would shortly have been pushed.

No organisation can tolerate a member who loudly and publicly makes personal attacks upon so many senior figures as has Whaleoil. Neither can a governing party put up with what amounts to continual quasi contempt of court by a person purporting to be part of the organisation.

In the Mojave desert there is a tribe of wild donkeys which when attacked by coyotes or cougars forms itself into a circle with heads inward and kicks like hell. Every now and again, some jackass turns the wrong way and kicks the hell out of its mates.

That's our Whaleoil - who now joins Lyen Brown and Andrew The Drunk, in foolishly invoking Jesus Christ and his crucifixion as somehow sanctifying their respective falls from grace.

The issues in this country, that have developed over the last twenty years or so, are not so much 90-day "fire-at-will" employment laws. Nor are they what the top rate of tax should be or whether people should be allowed to have a drink in their own home without being penalised for some 18-year old's immaturity.

They are issues, and annoyances. But here is the real problem/issue with this country:

As the rest of New Zealand sniggers over Auckland's inability to sort itself out over a Party Central for next year's Rugby World Cup, spare a thought for the iconic symbol of the city.

Replacing the Monterey pine that once stood famously on Maungakiekie (One Tree Hill) for more than 120 years has taken more than a decade, and the Auckland City Council now has a secret stash of more than 100 possible replacement trees.

But any replacement will now need the approval of the incoming super-city council and a North Island iwi collective.

That could involve consultation with ratepayers from Franklin to Rodney, and 12 iwi groups from the Coromandel to Warkworth.

Now known to some as None Tree Hill because it has taken so long to get agreement about what to plant and when, the treeless volcanic cone is seen as a symbol of Auckland's inability to do anything.

Nine years ago the city council and Auckland iwi Ngati Whatua had an agreement to plant a grove of six pohutukawa and three totara at the summit – Nine Tree Hill.

But since then Ngati Whatua has passed the mantle to a new iwi collective, and the plan has been frozen until treaty claims are settled, which would be March at the earliest.

By then the new Auckland council will be in place, and could throw out the deal altogether.

That's worth reading again. In summary, it has taken Auckland ten years and still we cannot plant a tree on top of a mountain. Now, it appears that further "consultation" is required after Iwi have re-organised.

We find it difficult to demolish old decrepid sheds. It has taken 12 years to complete the western ring route. We divert motorways to take account of a few birds nests. And it takes us nine years (and counting) to re-plant a tree. Worse still, time has not ended.

Consultation is killing this country. There's far too much of it and far too many people poking their noses in. Elected politicians are petrified of making a decision for fear of criticism of non-consultation and The Standard putting up their Democracy Under Attack banner.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Is there a satelite blackspot in the eastern bay of plenty causing a television dead zone?Have they run out of sisters to sleep with?Are they suffering from limited things to do for entertainment that it comes to this?

Your post suffers from its anglospheric focus and your socialist belief that there is a VRWC that is somehow able to command and control things rather than a very large number of human beings interacting in ways that suit them as individuals. Socialism was discredited with the fall of the USSR and China’s realisation that it had not helped its people out of poverty. Capitalism works. It is imperfect but it accepts that self interest is at the heart of all human interaction.

A few snippy comments and some thoughts in response to the graphs posted by dean.“democratic not command-and-control” – Based on the evidence of Clark & Brown that is the unsustainable Grecian route of bribing voters with other people’s money. Creating more state beneficiaries under your “social democrat” model is unsustainable. It may take years or it may take decades but welfare undermines individual responsibility and society. If you intend to follow the Frank Field model there is a chance.

“connects with the desire that almost everyone has to get ahead in life and make the best of things for themselves and their families” – You are going to support and vote for National and John Key? Look at the UK coalition and their ideas for the “Big society”. They are certainly addressing the fundamental causes of relative poverty in anglo nations rather than creating more dependent beneficiaries

“tackles the huge negative costs of massive inequality that arise from the changes of the past thirty years”Those graphs Dean posted are interesting and explained by three things. The deliberate policy of increased military spending to bankrupt the USSR, the hollowing out of American low skill manufacturing from the eighties and the tax cuts designed to inflict deficits on following administrations to prevent them raising spending.

The reality is that American manufacturing has hollowed out over the last thirty years. Those jobs have transferred to Asia and Mexico and made the world a richer place. Look at the rise of Walmart. Sales of $1.2bn in 1979, $32bn in 1990, $156bn in 2000, and $408bn in 2009.

Walmart is a fine proxy for outsourced manufacturing. The cheap foreign sourced product it supplies and it’s rise coincides with the economic reform in China.

With low skill western workers unable to compete with Asian workers the rewards to the educated designers and distributors of product have increased in absolute and relative terms whilst the low skilled and beneficiaries have stagnated. Rentiers in financial services have been able to clip the financial ticket on the way through of the vast wealth that has been created by the huge increase in global trade and consumption over the last thirty years.

If you focus purely on the rise in inequality in the anglosphere you can avoid the reality that low skill western jobs have been exported to developing nations and commenced to enrich the genuinely poor workers of those nations. Prosperity and wage rates are increasing substantially in China. Given a few more decades the local low skilled worker will find they are more competitive as Asian wage rates rise. I suspect you do not want to wait that long. Singaporean and South Korean GDP per capita is higher than New Zealand and will continue to rise as they do not handicap themselves by overpricing so much of the productive workforce through stupid rules on benefit abatement and an inflexible minimum wage and probation system. New Zealand can choose to be left behind or use the tool of education in a market democracy to build on its competitive advantages.

The socialist command and control left is doomed. Liberal policies towards trade and business as well as social policy is the only sustainable route. I suggest you read and take this Australian Labor speech on market democracy to heart.

It boils down to a heart-felt rather than lip service belief in capitalism and markets and a belief in the equality of opportunity rather than outcomes. Grow a bigger pie and ensure everyone has a fair chance to get a slice rather than focus on different ways to slice the pie. That requires a complete change in mindset, including the willingness to embrace trade, than has been demonstrated. Good luck!

Thursday, July 15, 2010

When somebody writes something like this it makes me seriously question their sanity and my open comments policy.

Never mind, you're right to fear us, because we are coming after Progressive scum like you, and we will eventually strip from you every last vestige of the political and social hegemony you enjoy at the moment.

Savour it well, for I'll give you ten years max before you're back in the primeval ooze you emerged from.

Redbaiter I think you are seriously disturbed and should seek professional advice. I am not troll fishing so comments are closed on this post.

UPDATE: In light of the frenzied pressing of the dislike post button and the troll-like comments polluting other posts I have opened comments here. Just don't expect me to respond.

As the Democrat Party sets about turning the US mid term elections into a racist slanging match, it is interesting to compare the Black Plague which killed off a hundred million people in Europe over some fifty years during the fourteenth century with the economic Black Plague currently devastating the United States.

The medieval black plague was founded in squalid living conditions and was spread by dirty black rats. Ratus norvegicus and Ratus ratus.

America's modern day version is founded in squalid economic theory based on envy, greed and jealousy and it too, is spread by dirty white rats. Pelosi, Reid and Boxer to name a few.

Obama is killing more people economically each day than the medieval version killed each day in all of Europe. In less than two years some eight million jobs have been killed off with some of them replaced by non jobs in the public service. Such is the insidious unseen gestation period of this modern day plague. Just as Clark and Cullen perpetrated in NZ, the real recession is hidden from view by the mirage of 'total jobs' which appear to be declining gently. Trouble is, the drone jobs in the public service really are just disguised unemployment benefits on a grand scale - $80k per year instead of $25k. Nothing of value to the nation results.

The black plague in the US manifests itself in the faces and attitudes of people like Obama, Halder, Wright, Jones and all the rest of Obama's Chicago style gangster henchmen who have been shoehorned into positions of power.

It will be a very long time before Americans take the risk of electing another black feller as their President and that is a great shame. In less than two years, Obama has done more damage to Negros and race relations in America than Governor George Wallace was able to achieve in a life time.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Don't be surprised if Sue Kedgeley claims full credit for a sudden drop in the price of food stuffs even though the factors contributing to the decline kicked in long before she opened her mouth.

Food prices took a record tumble in the year to June, driven by a decrease in the cost of fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry and fish.

Statistics New Zealand said the two per cent fall was the largest annual decrease in food prices since 1957 and followed a 17 per cent rise in the cost of food for the two years to July 2009.

Fruit and vegetables were down 9.2 per cent, meat, poultry and fish was down 3.9 per cent, and grocery food was down 1.4 per cent.

"It was the threat of regulation which has forced the evil supermarkets to open their black hearts and reduce their exorbitant margins."

So said Mrs Kedgeley in a press release pre-written for the Greens Party by PR consultant Adolf Fiinkensein.

We understand the fearless fruitloop, pictured here giving instructions on how to milk a mouse, is moving on to greater things and is to launch a campaign against unfair pricing of those other essential staples of the poor - cannabis and methamphetamine.

Monday, July 12, 2010

In a new twist on Labour's 'haters and wreckers,' Waitakere mayor Bob Harvey lets the cat out of the bag. The underlying message is simple. They know they've lost and the fix is in.

If elected, Labour's hand picked council candidates will to do their best to wreck the Super City.

"That is my real concern, that the mayor could finish up with the most dysfunctional council in the history of local government politics." Mr Harvey said nobody he had talked to who intended running for a council seat had indicated support for the Super City."

There it is, for all to see. The best yet reason anyone could want for putting aside foolish personal prejudice.

A vote for Brown is a vote for "the most dysfunctional council in history."

But the best was the dismissal by Harvey of the North Shore Drunk.

I don't think right now that he's causing anybody to lose any sleep," he said of Mr Williams. "He should join a men's drumming group in a sweat lodge - it would do him a world of good."

State capitalism, as Bremmer defines it, is "a set of governing principles" used by governments around the world to manage the performance of markets and companies for long-term political survival. Think the oil-rich Gulf states, or Venezuela, or China itself.

"State capitalism is corporations captured by states," he says, explaining a phenomenon he argues has yet to be fully embraced by the political or financial spheres.

Bremmer argues that increasingly influential countries are using financial markets to create wealth based on the perceptions of national interest.

Auckland lawyer Zel Unkovich has been ordered to pay two Blue Chip victims $160,000 in compensation for failing to advise them of the risks of the investment.

The scary thing from Granny's story is this:

Unkovich said...it was conjecture whether the Bilbes would have proceeded with the deal if his staff had pointed out problems.

"At that time it wouldn't have mattered what you told people, wild horses couldn't stop them getting into a lot of these Blue Chip deals."

Geez. That's failing in the bleedin' obvious, which is it's totally irrelevant whether they would have entered into the deals. The issue is whether advice on the structure was ever given. And it wasn't. If Unkovich gave it, and they still signed on the bottom line, then he'd have a point.

But he doesn't have a point and should just slink quietly into his corner and pay up - or at least his insurers should.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

The turnout is so appallingly bad and needs improving. It has gone from 61% in 1989, to 42% in 2007. Out West Auckland, where I now am, it is only in the mid 30's That's appalling. Get to know your candidates. Find out their voting record. And vote!

Foreigners swoop on NZ farms

Did you notice the subtle insult to history? 'Brits' are now described as foreigners.

Of course, nobody bothers to ask what is such a big deal about a few farms being bought over a five year period. Nor do they ask what serious risk is presented by such ownership. Nor do they realise that the 26,000 ha of high country sheep stations will have 'ownership' strictly curtailed by way of pastoral lease.

Nor does anyone stop to wonder how many hectares of farmland have been bought by New Zealanders during this five years in the USA, Australia, Argentina, Uruguay and other countries.

To Adolf's knowledge, enterprising NZ dairy farmers have purchased large chunks of the best land there is in Tasmania, Victoria, Queensland, Missouri, Argentina and Uruguy during this past five years.

I'd just about bet a good bottle of Padthaway Shiraz it's more than the 150,000 ha this useless daily rag is moaning about.

John Banks will be smiling this morning. In another great tribute to Labour's electoral organisation skills, North Shore's trophy numskull announces his intention to derail whatever votes Lyen Bown might have gained from deluded North Shorians.

Adolf calls for a post election formal inquiry to examine the election spending of Mayors Banks, Brown and Williams.

I want to be convinced my rates are not being used to further the policitacl career of Andrew Williams. Am I naive? Of course I am. Williams already has spent hundreds of thousands opposing, criticising and denigrating Minister Hide and others along with the Super City itself.

Now the detestable fool has the gall to put his shaky hand up for the top job.

Friday, July 9, 2010

The squawks, screams and shrieks of self inflated outrage can be heard from the roof tops as the politically correct panty wringers move into top gear turbocharged hyperbole. Andy Haden is up their noses again with another simple little home truth. They don't like it when you stick them home truths up 'em. Charlotte Dawson agrees with Haden so what will John Key say now? Will it be Charlotte or Andy?

The farce continues.

The most bizarre comment of the lot comes from Trevor - every lady's friend when he's in the mood - Mallard who now conflates left wing socialist feminazi thought with 'mainstream.'

"....[Haden].......he's not diplomatic and he says what he thinks and sometimes, when you are representing New Zealand as an ambassador, you just can't do that you've got to bite your tongue."

Even more so when your views were not mainstream, Mr Mallard said.

Mallard wouldn't know mainstream if he was drowning in the Rakaia River during the late spring thaw.

The supply will creep up from 86 mbpd today to approximately 92 mbpd to 2020, but that is not much growth, and indeed, is about the same as current global liquids production capacity. Moreover, it represents a reduction of nearly 4 mbpd from last year's forecast for 2020. On paper, the output of China has disappeared over the course of the last year.

The second post demonstrates quite well how far off the estimate of Chinese demand is likely to be.

Oil demand does not grow linearly with GDP. Rather, the bulk of oil demand growth occurs in the two decades during which societies typically acquire motor vehicles, after which per capita oil demand flattens.

Based on the experience of Korea and Japan, China's current population would be expected to consume approximately 55 million barrels per day at steady state (when per capita consumption plateaus), or nearly 2/3 of current global oil production, were the supply available.

This increase in demand can arise quite quickly. Japan's oil demand increased six fold in the twelve years prior to leveling out. Demand can also develop more slowly. In the case of Korea, a six-fold increase in consumption required twenty years, with much of the delay owing to OPEC pricing strategy following the second oil shock of 1979. Korea's model of development is potentially relevant for China, as China faces an oil price environment not entirely different from Korea's after 1979. Importantly, high oil prices from 1979 to 1985 did not destroy Korea's demand for oil. It only deferred it.

In contrast, the EIA sees China's oil consumption at only 10 mbpd for 2015, a growth rate of approximately 2.7% from current levels, and at only 16 mbpd by 2030. Is this consistent with a country whose vehicle sales are up 56% in the first five months of the year? Where sales of Audi's are up 77%, and those of BMW have doubled compared to the first five months of last year? Is China truly going to be satisfied, as the EIA would have it, with less than 1/5th of the per capita oil consumption of Korea in 2030, even though they should be similar by that time?

The differences in views about China's oil demand outlook have enormous policy implications. If the EIA is right, and China will forget how to grow, then pressures on the oil supply will be modest. On the other hand, if China is to develop like other countries in Asia, the pressure on the oil supply will be crushing, with oil shocks, recessions, and war all conceivable outcomes. The energy--as well as the economic and security--policy differences between the two scenarios are like night and day.

Remember those young and not so young celebrities who not long ago were telling us what to do with our carbon footprints?

Well here's another one.

Loser Lindsay Lohan. (Who the hell is she, anyway?)

About to be sent off to the slammer, she had this to say to the sentencing judge. Only she didn't 'say' it under her breath. She left the message there for posterity and now may well cop another three months jail time.

President Obama’s falling approval ratings are not just due to ineptness on the Gulf oil spill, the economy, and the war, but also to a growing perception of abject hypocrisy and lack of character. The disjunction between Senator Obama and President Obama explains a great deal of why he cannot convince either his opposition or the public as a whole that he will ever quite be sincere about anything.

UPDATE: Right it is twelve hours later and the cops have not found him so I think I will take the tinfoil hat off and trash that little piece of speculation.

So here is a little public speculation. There is an armed and exceptionally dangerous gunman loose in Northumbria. He has declared war on the police and has already killed a man and shot two others including a policeman. The story leads the BBC website. The police believe they have the fugitive tied down to quite a small area of woodland. There are armed police, armoured vehicles and all sorts in the area.

Yet the Radio 4 BBC 6 o'clock news does not lead with this story. It has two other very long pieces which take up 15 minutes first.

So I am wondering whether police did a deal with the BBC and are using radio direction finding equipment to target the gunman. He is probably able to listen to the radio news on a small receiver. I wonder whether police are anticipating he will want to listen to news about himself. I would imagine they would need a short period to triangulate signals and then a more extended period to check them.

If he is caught in the next few hours that would boost my speculation into something more concrete. If not then he is smarter than he looks or the BBC genuinely think that speculation over a possible US Russian spy swap is more important than reassuring the thousands of civilians in the area who await news and are scared for their safety.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Trevor Mallard comments positively on news from the Herald that it is doing what I suggested a long time ago and is investing in local venture capital. Here is what I said in May 2006

Investment of the New Zealand Super fund onshore

The logic of diversifying investment by the NZ Super Fund internationally is intellectually impeccable. However New Zealands biggest problem is local equity investment. A policy of allocating say 50% of the funds to New Zealand would provide a vastly larger local pool. This would have the impact of increasing prices for NZ equities and would also make it a more attractive place to raise capital. The risk is that New Zealand will underperform. But that seems a circular argument. The following table shows less than 9% of investment is in New Zealand. Investment within New Zealand will have a multiplier effect on GDP. Thus the threshold rate for an investment in New Zealand should be substantially lower than for an equivalent overseas investment that will not have the GDP multiplier.

It would perhaps be better for the NZSF to invest in a fund of funds. For example, matching the No 8 wire fund $ for $ and making them responsible for due diligence and administration. They could be screwed down to very low long term performance based fees given the relative size of the NZSF investment. That would give the private sector more skin in the game and put an independent company between state and the entrepreneur.

By investing directly in New Zealand business there are two benefits. Firstly they avoid the 70% transactional "tax" that private investors end up paying on their pension funds. Numerous studies have shown that the financial services sector extracts a high and unwarranted share of corporate profits before these get to the pension investor. 2% of assets and 20% of returns is common. When the money is passing through a number of ticket clipping financial organisations with high overhead costs there will be little left from the original corporate profit.

Secondly the NZ economy will benefit from the multiplier effect of the jobs and spending generated by that domestic investment.

The combination of those two factors means that there is a substantial buffer between the return required for direct domestic venture capital investment vs investment in foriegn pension funds. There is little or no empirical evidence that closely managed and well diversified local venture capital is in fact more risky than investment in foreign pension funds who do not have NZ best interests at heart.

It is called backing yourself and is a great start towards introducing a more entrepreneurial culture.

After the crooks who flogged to the world their shop soiled junk science known as 'The IPCC Report" on which they would then found their global scam called various names but boiling down to an international ponzi scheme in which citizens of gullible wealthy nations are forced to buy dirty little pieces of paper when enable venal citizens of other countries to buy free lunches forever were sprung by climategate, the Dutch government organised a report into the report by its own environmental agency.

John Key and Nick Smith should read it because it goes as far as civil servants dare to go in its language which leaves the reader in no doubt that the whole IPCC report was a disgraceful travesty. Here are some choice selections:-

But they did find a number of things to take issue with, most of which they thought minor but eight of which they classed as major; and their work seems to bring out a systemic tendency to stress negative effects over positive ones. This tendency can be defended. But a reading of the report suggests there may also be broader and potentially more misleading bias....

and a little later:-

......But the PBL also identified seven statements, which, while not errors, it thought were deserving of comment (for which read criticism).

Perhaps the most striking relates to Africa. The table in the summary for policy makers reads: “By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.” The evidence on which this is based says only that yields during years in which there are droughts could be reduced by 50%. Furthermore, the relevant reference applies only for Morocco—and it cites as its source an earlier paper that the PBL says no one, including the IPCC authors, now seems able to find.....

And then:-

....Other criticisms turn on a tendency to generalise. Research showing decreased yields of millet, groundnuts and cowpeas in Niger becomes a claim that crop yields are decreasing in the Sahel, the strip that separates the Sahara from the savannah in Africa, rather than that the yields of some crops are decreasing in some parts of the Sahel. The results of research on cattle in Argentina are applied to livestock (which would include pigs, chickens, llamas and the rest) throughout South America. The expert authors do not provide a compelling reason for their claim that fresh water availability will decline overall in south, east and southeast Asia, or that the balance of climate-related effects on the health of Europeans will be negative.....

Hang on a minute, there's more:-

......Another problem identified by the PBL analysis is that, in general, negative impacts are stressed over positive ones.......... Thus the evidence base from which an assessment of impacts has to start is to some extent skewed....

Oh yes, nearly forgot this one:-

.....Perhaps the most worrying thing about the PBL report, though, is a rather obvious one about which its authors say little. In all ten of the issues that the PBL categorised as major (the original errors on glaciers and Dutch sea level, and the eight others identified in the report), the impression that the reader gets from the IPCC is more strikingly negative than the impression which would have been received if the underlying evidence base had been reflected as the PBL would have wished.........A large rise in heat related deaths in Australia is mentioned without noting that most of the effect is due to population rather than climate change. A claim about forest fires in northern Asia seems to go further than the evidence referred to—in this case a speech by a politician—would warrant.......

And finally:-

But the panel set up to look at the IPCC’s workings by Dr Pachauri and Mr Ban should ask some hard questions about systematic tendencies to accentuate the negative.