UFC Live 6 Preview: The Main Card

Cruz vs. Johnson

Dominick Cruz has displayed a knack for elusiveness like few
other. | Photo: Dave Mandel

The bantamweight title is on the line Saturday, as champion
Dominick
Cruz defends against the talented Demetrious
Johnson in the UFC
Live 6 main event at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. In
a bout that will hopefully showcase the 135-pound division, Cruz
looks to make the fourth defense of his title and his second inside
the
UFC.

In the co-headliner, a heavyweight collision of disparate
proportions is on tap in Stefan
Struve-Pat Barry.
Both men are coming off crushing knockout defeats and will look to
get back in the win column in a bout that should be as exciting as
it is visually unique.

Here is a closer look at the UFC Live 6 main card, with breakdowns
and picks.

The Matchup: In decisioning Urijah Faber
at UFC 132, bantamweight champion Cruz scored the most significant
win of his career and avenged his sole loss in the process.
Utilizing the trademark movement and creative combinations that
define his standup style, Cruz showed a technical mastery of range,
timing and distance on the feet that few fighters come remotely
close to possessing. However, the downside of a points-first,
damage-second approach is that he almost always wins by decision, a
fact which could create something of a marketing conundrum for the
26-year-old titleholder.

Johnson is a whirling dervish and an inspiring figure, namely
because he is almost always the smallest guy in the fight and yet
attacks opponents with a combination of pace and intensity that is
hard to match. “Mighty Mouse,” a mere 5-foot-3, closes the gap on
opponents in a manner reminiscent of fellow bantamweight Joseph
Benavidez, exploding into them and consistently winning the
exchanges and scrambles he creates. In his decision over former
champion Miguel
Torres at UFC 130, Johnson did not do a lot of damage and some
felt Torres deserved the nod from the judges. However, it was an
impressive showing against a far more experienced and dangerous
opponent, and it vaulted Johnson into this title shot.

Against Cruz, he faces an opponent who is exceptionally difficult
to get angles on and one who uses his length and timing with
relentless precision. It remains uncertain if there is a perfect
game plan to beat Cruz, but past performances indicate the way not
to do it: standing around and letting him close the two-step
distance, create striking angles and then skitter away while the
opponent punches at air. Cruz does make some technical mistakes
standing, the most common one being leaning low to his left while
exiting a combination attack. Even so, the openings are so fleeting
that nobody has yet to fully exploit them -- Faber did on a couple
of occasions, hammering the champion with stout right hands.

If you are going to beat Cruz, you have to accept the fact that you
are going to have to pressure him and negate his range advantage by
making him move backward, pinning him against the cage and forcing
an insane pace to take away his movement and legs. You are also
going to have to do it against a champion whose takedown defense,
conditioning and ability to scramble are top-notch.

Johnson does not have the standup power to hurt Cruz on the feet
with one shot, but he has a relentless approach that might fit this
blueprint. In a five-round fight, that makes conditioning
especially important, particularly if Johnson can make Cruz move
backward and constantly circle away, which is more tiring than
coming forward and pressing the action. This bout has the potential
to be surprisingly technical and entertaining if Johnson is
competitive, but it could just as readily become dull, repetitive
and bad for Cruz if he is not pushed.

Standing around and waiting to counter Cruz is a poor strategy and
has failed for a virtual who’s-who of the 135-pound division during
his nine-fight winning streak. Johnson does not necessarily have to
come out like Brock
Lesnar mauling Frank Mir at
UFC 81, but he should take the center of the Octagon in the
beginning of each round and use his shortness as an advantage by
constantly changing levels and threatening to shoot, even when he
has no intention of doing so. That could induce Cruz to defend
against a takedown instead of the champion setting up for one of
his step-fire-and-slide-away combinations. Johnson has to take the
fight to the ground and probably will have to do so half a dozen
times or more to win, as Cruz excels at popping up to his feet.

A lot of dominoes have to line up correctly here for Johnson to
win, and Cruz’s experience against tough, dynamic guys like Faber
and Benavidez does not bode well for the challenger; he lacks the
standup ability and raw power both of those men possess. Cruz will
pick, peck and poke in the early rounds, scoring points and winning
on the cards. Expect him to put Johnson inside the tactical box he
puts most opponents in, too vexed to land standing and too distant
to unleash credible takedown attempts that he can finish.