Analysis: Is Rick Perry the Bill Clinton of the 2012 presidential race?

While some wonder whether Gov. Rick Perry’s red-hot rise in the polls may cool as quickly as the fortunes of Fred Thompson and Wes Clark before him, others see a more apt comparison to a different late-starting candidate.

He was a governor and natural politician with a knack for working the crowds. He was late to join what was seen as a less-than-stirring field, and he had a laser focus on the economy. Perry might not appreciate his politics, but he’d sure like to emulate how Bill Clinton changed his address in 1992.

“Perry wouldn’t necessarily like the comparison, but he may turn out to be the Republican Bill Clinton for ’12,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

There are clear differences — a Rhodes scholar who tacked to the center versus a proud Aggie decidedly on the right –but it’s the political path to which Sabato refers.

“Clinton wasn’t the winner in either Iowa or New Hampshire (though he finished second in New Hampshire and called himself the ‘comeback kid’ after his controversies had cost him). Clinton finally started moving when the battles moved south. In that year, the key first race was Georgia, which Clinton won. In 2012 it will be South Carolina,” Sabato said.

“And both Clinton and Perry are Southerners. There’s no question that the South is still America’s most distinctive region, and there is a natural tilt by voters to a fellow Southerner,” Sabato said by email after it became clear Perry would announce in South Carolina.

Perry’s working Iowa hard and is poised to head to New Hampshire to kick off Labor Day weekend, but South Carolina could provide a firewall.

Steffen Schmidt, political science professor at Iowa State University, dismissed Thompson as a half-hearted candidate who got out before he’d hardly begun. Clark was “an impossible candidate” since he’d never held elective office, Schmidt said. Perry is a different political animal.

“Governors always do very well. .. You’ve got to have some kind of a job that’s related to the exercise of political and governmental authority,” Schmidt said. “Perry has that. Perry has proven that he can get reelected over and over again so there’s no comparison there. Bill Clinton is a better comparison. Much better.”

Sabato also stood by the comparison: “I realize skeptics are saying Perry will fade like Thompson and Clark and (former U.S. Sen. Phil) Gramm. Maybe. But look at his early poll numbers … Doesn’t mean Perry will win it all, but if he can get control of the brain-tongue highway and remember he has to run in a general election and win states not nearly as conservative as Texas and the GOP electorate, he’ll be well positioned.”

Interesting note: Clinton weighed in on Perry in a speech after he jumped in, calling the Republican a “good-looking rascal” but his rhetoric “crazy.”

And top Perry political adviser Dave Carney was typically brief when asked what comparisons he sees between the two: “They were both governors.”