323
FXUS64 KLUB 032110
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.
THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 30 11 35 / 40 60 20 0
TULIA 27 28 13 36 / 50 70 20 0
PLAINVIEW 32 32 13 36 / 50 70 30 0
LEVELLAND 34 39 15 36 / 40 60 40 0
LUBBOCK 35 35 14 37 / 50 60 40 0
DENVER CITY 39 42 18 35 / 40 60 50 0
BROWNFIELD 37 41 17 36 / 50 60 50 0
CHILDRESS 30 30 15 40 / 60 70 30 0
SPUR 34 35 19 38 / 60 70 50 0
ASPERMONT 37 38 22 38 / 60 80 50 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
26/01
096
FXUS64 KLUB 031742
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED LATE THIS MORNING AND THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. INTO TONIGHT...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AFFECTING KCDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING SE THROUGH SUNRISE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH ICING POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED.
MORNING CARGO/MEDICAL FLIGHTS VERY WELL COULD BE IMPACTED WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING THROUGH 18Z WED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES. ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA. AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER. HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE. DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.
NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 28 28 11 / 20 30 50 20
TULIA 62 27 27 13 / 20 30 70 20
PLAINVIEW 61 32 32 13 / 30 30 70 20
LEVELLAND 62 37 37 15 / 30 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 62 35 35 14 / 30 30 60 30
DENVER CITY 61 42 42 18 / 30 30 50 30
BROWNFIELD 62 41 41 17 / 30 30 60 30
CHILDRESS 62 29 29 15 / 30 40 70 20
SPUR 65 35 35 19 / 10 40 60 30
ASPERMONT 66 40 40 22 / 10 50 60 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
694
FXUS64 KLUB 031138 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE. EXPECT TO SEE
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH LATE MORNING
BACK INTO VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING. AFTER SUNSET...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO DROP CEILINGS
THERE DOWN INTO IFR RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES. ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA. AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER. HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE. DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.
NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 28 28 11 / 20 30 50 20
TULIA 62 27 27 13 / 20 30 70 20
PLAINVIEW 61 32 32 13 / 20 30 70 20
LEVELLAND 62 37 37 15 / 20 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 62 35 35 14 / 20 30 60 30
DENVER CITY 61 42 42 18 / 20 30 50 30
BROWNFIELD 62 41 41 17 / 20 30 60 30
CHILDRESS 62 29 29 15 / 20 40 70 20
SPUR 65 35 35 19 / 10 40 60 30
ASPERMONT 66 40 40 22 / 10 50 60 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
14/51/14
736
FXUS64 KLUB 031020
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES. ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA. AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER. HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE. DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.
NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
JORDAN
.LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 28 28 11 / 20 30 50 20
TULIA 62 27 27 13 / 20 30 70 20
PLAINVIEW 61 32 32 13 / 20 30 70 20
LEVELLAND 62 37 37 15 / 20 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 62 35 35 14 / 20 30 60 30
DENVER CITY 61 42 42 18 / 20 30 50 30
BROWNFIELD 62 41 41 17 / 20 30 60 30
CHILDRESS 62 29 29 15 / 20 40 70 20
SPUR 65 35 35 19 / 10 40 60 30
ASPERMONT 66 40 40 22 / 10 50 60 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
14/51
850
FXUS64 KLUB 030550
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY. MOST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MAINTAINING SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE
CAPROCK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALOFT
MAINLY NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER...POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
TRIMMED EARLIER. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH REMAINS A CLOSE
CALL INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL RIME ICE
POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN NEAR OR BELOW IFR
UNTIL 12Z-14Z TIME-FRAME. KCDS REMAINS MORE MIXED WITH LOW CEILING
RISK BUT CHOSE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE
UNTIL THESE CHANGE...MOST LIKELY NEAR IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT ALL SITES WITH VEERED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PASSING SHOWERS MAY YET BE AN
ISSUE TUESDAY BUT NOT POSSIBLE YET TO NAIL DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL
BEST CHANCE TIMES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.
LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 59 27 28 / 10 10 10 40
TULIA 34 59 26 28 / 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 34 60 29 30 / 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 33 60 34 34 / 10 10 20 40
LUBBOCK 34 61 33 33 / 10 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 34 61 39 43 / 10 10 10 40
BROWNFIELD 33 61 38 38 / 10 10 20 40
CHILDRESS 36 64 29 30 / 10 10 30 40
SPUR 35 63 33 33 / 10 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 36 67 37 37 / 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/99/05
814
FXUS64 KLUB 030002
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.
LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 34 33 59 27 / 20 10 10 10
TULIA 35 34 59 26 / 20 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 34 34 60 29 / 30 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 34 33 60 34 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 35 34 61 33 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 34 34 61 39 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 33 33 61 38 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 38 36 64 29 / 20 10 10 30
SPUR 36 35 63 33 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 37 36 67 37 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
189
FXUS64 KLUB 022141
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.
.LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 59 27 28 / 10 10 10 40
TULIA 34 59 26 28 / 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 34 60 29 30 / 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 33 60 34 34 / 10 10 20 40
LUBBOCK 34 61 33 33 / 10 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 34 61 39 43 / 10 10 10 40
BROWNFIELD 33 61 38 38 / 10 10 20 40
CHILDRESS 36 64 29 30 / 10 10 30 40
SPUR 35 63 33 33 / 10 10 30 40
ASPERMONT 36 67 37 37 / 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/55
873
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 33 60 24 / 20 0 10 10
TULIA 39 34 60 23 / 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 38 35 61 24 / 30 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 37 35 63 30 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 39 36 64 26 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 39 35 65 36 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 36 34 64 34 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 40 34 66 26 / 20 10 10 30
SPUR 39 34 67 26 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 39 34 69 26 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
036
FXUS64 KLUB 021649 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 33 60 24 / 20 0 10 10
TULIA 39 34 60 23 / 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 38 35 61 24 / 30 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 37 35 63 30 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 39 36 64 26 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 39 35 65 36 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 36 34 64 34 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 40 34 66 26 / 20 10 10 30
SPUR 39 34 67 26 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 39 34 69 26 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
752
FXUS64 KLUB 021338
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 33 60 24 / 10 0 10 10
TULIA 39 34 60 23 / 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 38 35 61 24 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 37 35 63 30 / 30 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 39 36 64 26 / 30 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 39 35 65 36 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 36 34 64 34 / 30 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 40 34 66 26 / 10 10 10 30
SPUR 39 34 67 26 / 30 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 39 34 69 26 / 30 20 10 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/14
917
FXUS64 KLUB 021056
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 33 60 24 / 10 0 10 10
TULIA 39 34 60 23 / 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 38 35 61 24 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 37 35 63 30 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 39 36 64 26 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 39 35 65 36 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 36 34 64 34 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 40 34 66 26 / 10 10 10 30
SPUR 39 34 67 26 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 39 34 69 26 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/14/51
597
FXUS64 KLUB 021027
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ALDRICH
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 33 60 24 / 10 0 10 10
TULIA 39 34 60 23 / 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 38 35 61 24 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 37 35 63 30 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 39 36 64 26 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 39 35 65 36 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 36 34 64 34 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 40 34 66 26 / 10 10 10 30
SPUR 39 34 67 26 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 39 34 69 26 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/14
973
FXUS64 KLUB 020513
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY A LITTLE SLOW TO COME ABOUT THIS EVENING...
LIKELY IN LARGE PART TO WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION MAINTAINING A
NEARLY CONSTANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE EAST THAT SPREAD SHOULD BEGIN TO
NARROW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KLBB
AND KPVW IS FALLING /LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS/. MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCDS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.
LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 43 35 60 / 10 10 10 0
TULIA 22 40 36 62 / 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 24 40 36 63 / 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 23 42 37 65 / 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 25 41 37 66 / 10 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 27 44 37 67 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 25 42 36 66 / 10 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 26 40 36 68 / 10 10 20 10
SPUR 26 40 36 69 / 10 10 20 0
ASPERMONT 27 40 36 71 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
170
FXUS64 KLUB 012335
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.
LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 43 35 60 / 10 10 10 0
TULIA 22 40 36 62 / 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 24 40 36 63 / 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 23 42 37 65 / 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 25 41 37 66 / 10 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 27 44 37 67 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 25 42 36 66 / 10 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 26 40 36 68 / 10 10 20 10
SPUR 26 40 36 69 / 10 10 20 0
ASPERMONT 27 40 36 71 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
773
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.
.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 43 35 60 / 10 10 10 0
TULIA 22 40 36 62 / 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 24 40 36 63 / 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 23 42 37 65 / 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 25 41 37 66 / 10 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 27 44 37 67 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 25 42 36 66 / 10 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 26 40 36 68 / 10 10 20 10
SPUR 26 40 36 69 / 10 10 20 0
ASPERMONT 27 40 36 71 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/33
805
FXUS64 KLUB 011815
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
JUST ENOUGH MIXING NEAR AND EAST OF KCDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS SIGN OF
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY END INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WITH NORTHWARD STREAMING OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
VERY SLIM SHOT AT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR
NOW. NONETHELESS...FAIRLY CERTAIN KLBB AND KPVW WILL SEE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KCDS WITH LESS OF A SNOWPACK.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.
UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 42 37 59 / 20 20 10 10
TULIA 26 40 38 60 / 20 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 26 40 38 60 / 20 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 29 42 37 62 / 20 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 28 40 38 62 / 20 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 29 44 38 64 / 20 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 29 42 36 64 / 20 30 20 10
CHILDRESS 27 39 38 66 / 20 20 20 10
SPUR 28 39 37 66 / 20 30 20 10
ASPERMONT 29 39 39 69 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
075
FXUS64 KLUB 011131
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT TO IFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT LATEST DATA SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT LBB WHERE +FZFG NOW APPEARS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SN/IP/FZDZ
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THRU
02/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.
LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.
UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
934
FXUS64 KLUB 010957
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.
.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.
UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 36 27 42 37 / 10 20 20 10
TULIA 37 26 40 38 / 10 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 36 26 40 38 / 10 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 37 29 42 37 / 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 34 28 40 38 / 10 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 38 29 44 38 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 36 29 42 36 / 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 36 27 39 38 / 10 20 20 20
SPUR 36 28 39 37 / 10 20 30 20
ASPERMONT 37 29 39 39 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
534
FXUS64 KLUB 010528
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
WARMER SWLY FLOW JUST OVER IT. NO SIG CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAF SET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.
DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 47 26 48 / 10 10 20 20
TULIA 23 44 26 44 / 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 24 45 28 45 / 10 10 20 30
LEVELLAND 25 49 31 48 / 10 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 24 46 31 47 / 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 27 53 34 51 / 10 10 30 30
BROWNFIELD 26 50 33 48 / 10 10 30 30
CHILDRESS 23 40 28 40 / 10 10 20 20
SPUR 25 41 30 42 / 10 10 30 30
ASPERMONT 27 42 31 43 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
461
FXUS64 KLUB 282313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.
DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 47 26 48 / 10 10 20 20
TULIA 23 44 26 44 / 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 24 45 28 45 / 10 10 20 30
LEVELLAND 25 49 31 48 / 10 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 24 46 31 47 / 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 27 53 34 51 / 10 10 30 30
BROWNFIELD 26 50 33 48 / 10 10 30 30
CHILDRESS 23 40 28 40 / 10 10 20 20
SPUR 25 41 30 42 / 10 10 30 30
ASPERMONT 27 42 31 43 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
539
FXUS64 KLUB 282153
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.
DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 47 26 48 / 10 10 20 20
TULIA 23 44 26 44 / 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 24 45 28 45 / 10 10 20 30
LEVELLAND 25 49 31 48 / 10 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 24 46 31 47 / 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 27 53 34 51 / 10 10 30 30
BROWNFIELD 26 50 33 48 / 10 10 30 30
CHILDRESS 23 40 28 40 / 10 10 20 20
SPUR 25 41 30 42 / 10 10 30 30
ASPERMONT 27 42 31 43 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/33
176
FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.
PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 24 49 27 / 20 10 10 20
TULIA 26 25 49 27 / 30 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 27 25 52 30 / 30 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 29 27 52 33 / 20 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 27 25 51 32 / 30 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 30 29 65 36 / 20 10 0 20
BROWNFIELD 30 27 60 34 / 20 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 27 26 47 30 / 40 10 20 20
SPUR 28 26 53 31 / 30 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 30 28 55 34 / 30 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
701
FXUS64 KLUB 281133
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS SHOW NO SIGN OF BUDGING THROUGH
12Z SUN. LIGHT FZDZ AND -SN AT LBB AND PVW RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT
AMOUNTING TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS AND SHOULD END BY MID/LATE
MORNING...SO AN AIRPORT WX WARNING IS UNLIKELY AT LBB.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS MAY CRATER TO 100 FEET AT ALL TERMINALS
INCLUDING CDS AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK. MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AS WELL IN THIS
SETUP...BUT NEITHER OF THESE THREATS WILL BE ENTERTAINED IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.
PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
723
FXUS64 KLUB 281022
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.
PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 30 29 49 27 / 20 10 10 20
TULIA 29 28 49 27 / 30 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 29 28 52 30 / 30 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 31 30 52 33 / 20 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 29 28 51 32 / 30 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 33 32 65 36 / 20 10 0 20
BROWNFIELD 32 31 60 34 / 20 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 29 28 47 30 / 40 10 20 20
SPUR 30 29 53 31 / 30 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 32 31 55 34 / 30 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
265
FXUS64 KLUB 280520
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW AND KCDS...WITH LIFR CIGS HAVING
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT KLBB TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT THIS TREND TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT CIGS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. IFR VIS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AT KLBB...WITH VFR VIS AT KPVW AND KCDS...THOUGH IT IS
FALLING AT KPVW. MVFR TO IFR VIS IS PLAUSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. -FZDZSN WAS IMPACTING KLBB AND
MORE SO -SN IMPACTING KPVW. -SN HAS STOPPED BEING REPORTED VIA
METARS AT KCDS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH -FZDZSN BEING A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN
/HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY/. -FZDZSN CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AFTER 15Z AT KLBB AND KPVW...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BRINGING THE
INITIAL SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DESPITE THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT REMAINING WELL
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WOULD EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS
THIS WAVE PASSES BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO BACK THE LOCAL UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HELPING TO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM...WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM ALL SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
NEAR H75. WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THIS REGIME WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH TAKING PLACE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATION DECREASING TO ONLY
ENCOMPASS LOWER LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT...THUS THE EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES
AS THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WILL
FOREGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT ICING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.
LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY TRICKY DUE TO TIMING AND
EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS...FROM 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RENEW THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL
LIQUID DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AND WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR TO QUICKLY ERODE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SWERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST DESPITE A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUING ALOFT. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE GOES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD HOLD UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS
GOING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE
COUPLED LIFT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 11 38 31 50 / 40 20 10 10
TULIA 11 34 30 52 / 40 30 20 10
PLAINVIEW 13 35 30 55 / 40 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 13 40 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 13 37 33 59 / 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 16 43 34 68 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 15 41 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
CHILDRESS 15 32 29 49 / 40 40 30 20
SPUR 15 33 32 56 / 40 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 18 35 33 60 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
697
FXUS64 KLUB 280042
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECLINING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES EQUATING FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL
BE WARRANTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE IMPACTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...-SN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF-
SITES WHICH COULD BE AFFECTING VIS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A LULL
OF THE -SN LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS TIME IN THE
FORM OF -FZDZ /AT KLBB AND KPVW/ AND -FZDZSN /AT KCDS/. HAVE
ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR THIS PLAUSIBILITY. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT COULD STILL MAKE RUNWAYS A BIT SLICK
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. DURING THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CIGS WILL
DETERIORATED IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CRITERIA...AND VIS
REMAINING/FALLING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BRINGING THE
INITIAL SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DESPITE THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT REMAINING WELL
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WOULD EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS
THIS WAVE PASSES BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO BACK THE LOCAL UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HELPING TO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM...WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM ALL SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
NEAR H75. WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THIS REGIME WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH TAKING PLACE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATION DECREASING TO ONLY
ENCOMPASS LOWER LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT...THUS THE EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES
AS THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WILL
FOREGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT ICING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.
LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY TRICKY DUE TO TIMING AND
EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS...FROM 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RENEW THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL
LIQUID DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AND WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR TO QUICKLY ERODE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SWERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST DESPITE A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUING ALOFT. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE GOES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD HOLD UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS
GOING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE
COUPLED LIFT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 11 38 31 50 / 40 20 10 10
TULIA 11 34 30 52 / 40 30 20 10
PLAINVIEW 13 35 30 55 / 40 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 13 40 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 13 37 33 59 / 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 16 43 34 68 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 15 41 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
CHILDRESS 15 32 29 49 / 40 40 30 20
SPUR 15 33 32 56 / 40 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 18 35 33 60 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/99
009
FXUS64 KLUB 272326
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE IMPACTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...-SN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF-
SITES WHICH COULD BE AFFECTING VIS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A LULL
OF THE -SN LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS TIME IN THE
FORM OF -FZDZ /AT KLBB AND KPVW/ AND -FZDZSN /AT KCDS/. HAVE
ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR THIS PLAUSIBILITY. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT COULD STILL MAKE RUNWAYS A BIT SLICK
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. DURING THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CIGS WILL
DETERIORATED IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CRITERIA...AND VIS
REMAINING/FALLING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BRINGING THE
INITIAL SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DESPITE THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT REMAINING WELL
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WOULD EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS
THIS WAVE PASSES BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO BACK THE LOCAL UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HELPING TO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM...WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM ALL SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
NEAR H75. WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THIS REGIME WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH TAKING PLACE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATION DECREASING TO ONLY
ENCOMPASS LOWER LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT...THUS THE EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES
AS THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WILL
FOREGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT ICING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.
LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY TRICKY DUE TO TIMING AND
EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS...FROM 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RENEW THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL
LIQUID DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AND WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR TO QUICKLY ERODE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SWERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST DESPITE A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUING ALOFT. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE GOES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD HOLD UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS
GOING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE
COUPLED LIFT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 15 38 31 50 / 40 20 10 10
TULIA 15 34 30 52 / 40 30 20 10
PLAINVIEW 17 35 30 55 / 40 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 17 40 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 16 37 33 59 / 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 20 43 34 68 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 19 41 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
CHILDRESS 18 32 29 49 / 40 40 30 20
SPUR 19 33 32 56 / 40 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 21 35 33 60 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
970
FXUS64 KLUB 272153
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BRINGING THE
INITIAL SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DESPITE THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT REMAINING WELL
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WOULD EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS
THIS WAVE PASSES BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO BACK THE LOCAL UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HELPING TO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM...WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM ALL SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
NEAR H75. WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THIS REGIME WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH TAKING PLACE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATION DECREASING TO ONLY
ENCOMPASS LOWER LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT...THUS THE EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES
AS THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WILL
FOREGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT ICING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY TRICKY DUE TO TIMING AND
EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS...FROM 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE...OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RENEW THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL
LIQUID DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AND WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR TO QUICKLY ERODE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SWERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST DESPITE A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUING ALOFT. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE GOES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD HOLD UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS
GOING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE
COUPLED LIFT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 15 38 31 50 / 40 20 10 10
TULIA 15 34 30 52 / 40 30 20 10
PLAINVIEW 17 35 30 55 / 40 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 17 40 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 16 37 33 59 / 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 20 43 34 68 / 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 19 41 34 64 / 30 30 10 10
CHILDRESS 18 32 29 49 / 40 40 30 20
SPUR 19 33 32 56 / 40 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 21 35 33 60 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/33
645
FXUS64 KLUB 271816
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES LINGER ABOUT THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AREAWIDE...BUT STILL EXPECTING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL GIVEN TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHATTER THE PREVIOUS RECORD
COOL HIGHS FOR BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS OF 37 AND 28 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH SNOW HAVING PUSHED EAST OF ALL SITES...HAVE SEEN BORDERLINE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKE OVER IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE SOUTH ATOP A COLD SURFACE LAYER EXACERBATED BY A 3-5 INCH SNOW
COVER. COULD SEE A SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CERTAINTY AND TIMING BECOME CLEARER.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT NICELY SO FAR THIS
MORNING WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH POISED
300 MILES WEST OF LUBBOCK AT 09Z. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...IR
IMAGERY SHOWED A RESPECTABLE AXIS OF MOIST ASCENT WITH STEADY
CLOUD TOP COOLING FROM ROSWELL EAST TO LUBBOCK COINCIDENT A BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOW. A SECOND BUT MORE COMPACT ZONE OF VIGOROUS LIFT
WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND VEGA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE...ALTHOUGH WE DID NUDGE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND WHICH WAS LESS CERTAIN IN
EARLIER FORECASTS. SKYCAM IMAGERY FROM WHITEFACE SHOWED THAT ROADS
THERE QUICKLY BECAME SNOW COVERED UNDER THIS BAND WITH
VISIBILITIES ESTIMATED BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL OPT
TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE AS 4+ INCH OCCURRENCES ARE STILL FAVORED
TO OCCUR IN NARROW SWATHS.
TIMING OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FAVORS SNOW TO END
NEAR THE NM STATE LINE BY LATE MORNING WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
DEPARTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
SPLIT ADVISORY END TIMES FROM W-E. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
FOR ALL BUT OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
DEPARTS THE REGION TONIGHT...STEADY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESUME
AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MILDER SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM 8-12K FEET. MODELS
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS WARM PUSH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z...SO POPS WERE ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS
RATIONALE. ANOTHER NIGHTTIME BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE IN THE CARDS
FOR OUR NW COUNTIES IN THIS SETUP...BUT ASCENT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN TODAY SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH...
MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND MILDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
NOSING ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THIS MILD LAYER MAY VERY
WELL RESTRICT PRECIP ORIGINATION TO THE STRATUS LAYER BENEATH.
PROFILES POINT TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT PENDING THOSE ALL TOO CRUCIAL ICE
NUCLEATION TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING ANOTHER TROF
DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD POOL WILL START TO MODERATE
THE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
TO MIX THE AIRMASS OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
KICK OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING BETTER CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN
THE WARM LAYER GIVING US A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL THANKS TO THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE SLOW WARMUP WILL STOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S NORTHEAST. AGAIN...WE COULD SEE
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT PROVIDES SOME
LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING AS THE MODELS
DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF FINALLY EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LAST
OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BUT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ONCE THE TROF AXIS IS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 16 38 32 48 / 30 20 10 10
TULIA 16 35 33 47 / 30 30 20 10
PLAINVIEW 18 36 34 50 / 30 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 19 41 36 58 / 20 20 20 0
LUBBOCK 18 39 36 56 / 20 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 21 44 36 64 / 20 20 10 0
BROWNFIELD 21 42 38 59 / 20 20 20 0
CHILDRESS 19 34 30 48 / 20 40 30 20
SPUR 20 36 35 54 / 30 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 22 37 36 56 / 30 40 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
692
FXUS64 KLUB 271148
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.AVIATION...
...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CONTINUES FOR LBB UNTIL 18Z...
IFR CONDITIONS AT LBB AND PVW ARE EXPECTED TO TREND MVFR BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z AS SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. METARS UPSTREAM FROM HOB AND
GNC ARE ALREADY MVFR BEHIND AN AXIS OF STRONGER LIFT RESPONSIBLE
FOR A NARROW BAND OF +SN AND LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS BAND SHOULD
IMPACT PVW SHORTLY BUT HAS SINCE EXITED LBB. DO EXPECT THIS
HEAVIER SNOW TO MAKE IT TO CDS AROUND 14Z WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF POOR VISBYS FROM SNOW.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME WINDOW FOR IFR
LEVELS AT TIMES. MODELS FAVOR FOG AT LBB AND PVW TOWARD 06Z...BUT
WE FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL OMIT MENTION FROM
TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT NICELY SO FAR THIS
MORNING WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH POISED
300 MILES WEST OF LUBBOCK AT 09Z. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...IR
IMAGERY SHOWED A RESPECTABLE AXIS OF MOIST ASCENT WITH STEADY
CLOUD TOP COOLING FROM ROSWELL EAST TO LUBBOCK COINCIDENT A BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOW. A SECOND BUT MORE COMPACT ZONE OF VIGOROUS LIFT
WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND VEGA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE...ALTHOUGH WE DID NUDGE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND WHICH WAS LESS CERTAIN IN
EARLIER FORECASTS. SKYCAM IMAGERY FROM WHITEFACE SHOWED THAT ROADS
THERE QUICKLY BECAME SNOW COVERED UNDER THIS BAND WITH
VISIBILITIES ESTIMATED BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL OPT
TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE AS 4+ INCH OCCURRENCES ARE STILL FAVORED
TO OCCUR IN NARROW SWATHS.
TIMING OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FAVORS SNOW TO END
NEAR THE NM STATE LINE BY LATE MORNING WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
DEPARTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
SPLIT ADVISORY END TIMES FROM W-E. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
FOR ALL BUT OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
DEPARTS THE REGION TONIGHT...STEADY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESUME
AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MILDER SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM 8-12K FEET. MODELS
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS WARM PUSH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z...SO POPS WERE ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS
RATIONALE. ANOTHER NIGHTTIME BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE IN THE CARDS
FOR OUR NW COUNTIES IN THIS SETUP...BUT ASCENT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN TODAY SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH...
MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND MILDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
NOSING ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THIS MILD LAYER MAY VERY
WELL RESTRICT PRECIP ORIGINATION TO THE STRATUS LAYER BENEATH.
PROFILES POINT TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT PENDING THOSE ALL TOO CRUCIAL ICE
NUCLEATION TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING ANOTHER TROF
DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD POOL WILL START TO MODERATE
THE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
TO MIX THE AIRMASS OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
KICK OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING BETTER CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN
THE WARM LAYER GIVING US A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL THANKS TO THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE SLOW WARMUP WILL STOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S NORTHEAST. AGAIN...WE COULD SEE
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT PROVIDES SOME
LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING AS THE MODELS
DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF FINALLY EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LAST
OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BUT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ONCE THE TROF AXIS IS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
93/14/93
614
FXUS64 KLUB 271014
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT NICELY SO FAR THIS
MORNING WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH POISED
300 MILES WEST OF LUBBOCK AT 09Z. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...IR
IMAGERY SHOWED A RESPECTABLE AXIS OF MOIST ASCENT WITH STEADY
CLOUD TOP COOLING FROM ROSWELL EAST TO LUBBOCK COINCIDENT A BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOW. A SECOND BUT MORE COMPACT ZONE OF VIGOROUS LIFT
WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND VEGA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE...ALTHOUGH WE DID NUDGE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND WHICH WAS LESS CERTAIN IN
EARLIER FORECASTS. SKYCAM IMAGERY FROM WHITEFACE SHOWED THAT ROADS
THERE QUICKLY BECAME SNOW COVERED UNDER THIS BAND WITH
VISIBILITIES ESTIMATED BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL OPT
TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE AS 4+ INCH OCCURRENCES ARE STILL FAVORED
TO OCCUR IN NARROW SWATHS.
TIMING OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FAVORS SNOW TO END
NEAR THE NM STATE LINE BY LATE MORNING WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
DEPARTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
SPLIT ADVISORY END TIMES FROM W-E. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
FOR ALL BUT OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
DEPARTS THE REGION TONIGHT...STEADY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESUME
AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MILDER SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM 8-12K FEET. MODELS
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS WARM PUSH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z...SO POPS WERE ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS
RATIONALE. ANOTHER NIGHTTIME BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE IN THE CARDS
FOR OUR NW COUNTIES IN THIS SETUP...BUT ASCENT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN TODAY SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH...
MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND MILDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
NOSING ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THIS MILD LAYER MAY VERY
WELL RESTRICT PRECIP ORIGINATION TO THE STRATUS LAYER BENEATH.
PROFILES POINT TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT PENDING THOSE ALL TOO CRUCIAL ICE
NUCLEATION TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING ANOTHER TROF
DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD POOL WILL START TO MODERATE
THE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
TO MIX THE AIRMASS OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
KICK OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING BETTER CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN
THE WARM LAYER GIVING US A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL THANKS TO THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE SLOW WARMUP WILL STOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S NORTHEAST. AGAIN...WE COULD SEE
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT PROVIDES SOME
LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING AS THE MODELS
DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF FINALLY EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LAST
OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BUT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ONCE THE TROF AXIS IS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 20 16 38 32 / 100 30 20 10
TULIA 19 16 35 33 / 100 30 30 20
PLAINVIEW 20 18 36 34 / 100 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 22 19 41 36 / 100 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 21 18 39 36 / 100 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 24 21 44 36 / 80 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 24 21 42 38 / 100 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 22 19 34 30 / 100 20 40 30
SPUR 22 20 36 35 / 100 30 30 20
ASPERMONT 24 22 37 36 / 100 30 40 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
93/14
655
FXUS64 KLUB 270532
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR DECKS PERSISTED AT THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT...THOUGH
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY DECLINING. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR -SN OVERNIGHT MOVING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...THUS INITIALLY AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW AOA 09Z AND KCDS
AOA 12Z. IF A SELECT FEW COMPUTER MODELS ARE CORRECT...SN WILL BE
POSSIBLE MORE SO AT KLBB AND KPVW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THE ONSET OF THE -SN AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. SNOWFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTN AT KLBB
AND KPVW...HENCE THE INSERTION OF A PROB30...AND BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AT KCDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 12 20 15 38 / 100 80 30 20
TULIA 14 18 16 35 / 90 90 30 30
PLAINVIEW 14 20 18 36 / 90 90 30 30
LEVELLAND 15 22 19 41 / 80 70 30 20
LUBBOCK 15 21 18 39 / 80 80 30 30
DENVER CITY 18 23 21 44 / 80 40 30 20
BROWNFIELD 17 23 20 42 / 80 70 30 20
CHILDRESS 18 21 19 34 / 40 90 30 40
SPUR 17 21 20 37 / 50 80 30 30
ASPERMONT 19 23 22 38 / 30 80 40 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
29
516
FXUS64 KLUB 270424
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS OR GRIDS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS MOVING
OUR WAY AND WILL SPREAD LIFT INTO THE AREA STARTING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WESTERN BORDER. LOWER LEVELS HAVE DRIED MARKEDLY
BY A SOLID 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT SOLUTIONS INSIST THE
COLUMN WILL COOL AND MOISTEN WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
ALOFT...QUICKLY RE-SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LUBBOCK AREA CLOSE TO 400AM
WITH HEAVIEST RATES BETWEEN 500AM-900AM. BULK OF SOLUTIONS
GENERATE PRECIPITATION OF AROUND 0.10" NORTHEAST WITH 0.25" TO
0.35 INCHES MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THUS SNOWFALL FROM 1" TO 4" SEEMS ON TRACK. STILL CONCERNED FOR
POTENTIAL BANDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW GREATER THAN 4" GIVEN THE
HIGH SNOW RATIO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN LOCATION
YET. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. -SN/FLURRIES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY SHOWED UP IN THE KPVW
AND KLBB METARS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VIS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW AOA 09Z AND KCDS AOA
12Z. THIS SNOWFALL COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES AND THUS CAUSE
VIS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY. FURTHERMORE...CIGS WILL
DECLINE TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SN WILL COMMENCE TO TAPER
OFF BY THE AFTN AT KLBB AND KPVW...HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
PROB30...BUT WILL BE ONGOING AT KCDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 12 20 15 38 / 100 80 30 20
TULIA 14 18 16 35 / 90 90 30 30
PLAINVIEW 14 20 18 36 / 90 90 30 30
LEVELLAND 15 22 19 41 / 80 70 30 20
LUBBOCK 15 21 18 39 / 80 80 30 30
DENVER CITY 18 23 21 44 / 80 40 30 20
BROWNFIELD 17 23 20 42 / 80 70 30 20
CHILDRESS 18 21 19 34 / 40 90 30 40
SPUR 17 21 20 37 / 50 80 30 30
ASPERMONT 19 23 22 38 / 30 80 40 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/99
466
FXUS64 KLUB 262324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. -SN/FLURRIES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY SHOWED UP IN THE KPVW
AND KLBB METARS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VIS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW AOA 09Z AND KCDS AOA
12Z. THIS SNOWFALL COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES AND THUS CAUSE
VIS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY. FURTHERMORE...CIGS WILL
DECLINE TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SN WILL COMMENCE TO TAPER
OFF BY THE AFTN AT KLBB AND KPVW...HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
PROB30...BUT WILL BE ONGOING AT KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 12 20 15 38 / 100 80 30 20
TULIA 14 18 16 35 / 90 90 30 30
PLAINVIEW 14 20 18 36 / 90 90 30 30
LEVELLAND 15 22 19 41 / 80 70 30 20
LUBBOCK 15 21 18 39 / 80 80 30 30
DENVER CITY 18 23 21 44 / 80 40 30 20
BROWNFIELD 17 23 20 42 / 80 70 30 20
CHILDRESS 18 21 19 34 / 40 90 30 40
SPUR 17 21 20 37 / 50 80 30 30
ASPERMONT 19 23 22 38 / 30 80 40 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
29
193
FXUS64 KLUB 262139
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.
OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.
.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 12 20 15 38 / 100 80 30 20
TULIA 14 18 16 35 / 90 90 30 30
PLAINVIEW 14 20 18 36 / 90 90 30 30
LEVELLAND 15 22 19 41 / 80 70 30 20
LUBBOCK 15 21 18 39 / 80 80 30 30
DENVER CITY 18 23 21 44 / 80 40 30 20
BROWNFIELD 17 23 20 42 / 80 70 30 20
CHILDRESS 18 21 19 34 / 40 90 30 40
SPUR 17 21 20 37 / 50 80 30 30
ASPERMONT 19 23 22 38 / 30 80 40 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
07/31
491
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 50 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 40 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 50 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 40 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 50 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 30 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 50 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 60 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
864
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 50 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 40 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 50 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 40 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 50 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 30 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 50 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 60 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
857
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 50 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 40 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 50 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 40 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 50 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 30 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 50 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 60 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
255
FXUS64 KLUB 261610
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 50 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 40 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 50 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 40 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 50 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 30 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 50 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 60 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
526
FXUS64 KLUB 261141 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 30 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 20 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 30 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 30 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 30 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 20 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 30 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 30 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 40 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027-028.
&&
$$
904
FXUS64 KLUB 261020
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION. RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE. WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.
JORDAN
.LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.
THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 10 20 15 / 30 80 70 30
TULIA 29 10 20 16 / 20 70 80 30
PLAINVIEW 30 12 21 18 / 30 60 80 30
LEVELLAND 32 13 23 19 / 30 50 60 30
LUBBOCK 32 13 22 18 / 30 50 70 30
DENVER CITY 34 16 24 21 / 20 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 34 15 24 20 / 30 40 50 30
CHILDRESS 33 15 22 19 / 20 40 80 30
SPUR 34 15 22 20 / 30 30 70 30
ASPERMONT 35 17 24 22 / 40 20 70 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ021>023-027-028.
&&
$$
14/23
637
FXUS64 KLUB 260538
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.AVIATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-16 KTS
SUSTAINED AT KLBB AND KPVW...AND AOA 10 KTS AT KCDS. WILL EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 16-20 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
-RA AFFECTING KLBB PER LATEST METAR...AND WILL PROBABLY SOON
AFFECT KPVW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE OF IT AFFECTING KCDS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP
TO/BELOW FREEZING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW...MORE SO THAN KCDS. A TEMPO GROUP WILL
THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED AT KLBB AND KPVW FOR -SN AND MVFR CLOUD
DECKS /THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS/. TOMORROW MORNING...NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO BELOW 14 KTS AS BKN-OVC VFR
CIGS PASS OVERHEAD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.
COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 27 10 21 / 90 30 80 50
TULIA 23 29 12 20 / 80 20 70 70
PLAINVIEW 25 30 13 21 / 70 20 60 60
LEVELLAND 26 32 14 25 / 60 20 50 50
LUBBOCK 26 32 13 24 / 60 20 50 60
DENVER CITY 29 34 17 26 / 10 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 29 34 16 25 / 20 20 40 40
CHILDRESS 27 33 15 23 / 20 10 40 80
SPUR 27 34 16 24 / 30 20 30 60
ASPERMONT 29 35 20 27 / 10 20 20 60
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-
027-028.
&&
$$
29
623
FXUS64 KLUB 252324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BREEZIER THROUGHOUT EVENING INTO TONIGHT /15-20 KTS/.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
AT A QUICK SHOT OF -SN...MORE SO AT KPVW AND KPVW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL THEREFORE SEE CIGS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY INTO IFR CATEGORY AT KPVW AND
KLBB. BY TOMORROW MORNING...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO 10-14 KTS
AND CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.
COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 27 10 21 / 90 30 80 50
TULIA 23 29 12 20 / 80 20 70 70
PLAINVIEW 25 30 13 21 / 70 20 60 60
LEVELLAND 26 32 14 25 / 60 20 50 50
LUBBOCK 26 32 13 24 / 60 20 50 60
DENVER CITY 29 34 17 26 / 10 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 29 34 16 25 / 20 20 40 40
CHILDRESS 27 33 15 23 / 20 10 40 80
SPUR 27 34 16 24 / 30 20 30 60
ASPERMONT 29 35 20 27 / 10 20 20 60
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-027-028.
&&
$$
29
255
FXUS64 KLUB 252147
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.
COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 27 10 21 / 90 30 80 50
TULIA 23 29 12 20 / 80 20 70 70
PLAINVIEW 25 30 13 21 / 70 20 60 60
LEVELLAND 26 32 14 25 / 60 20 50 50
LUBBOCK 26 32 13 24 / 60 20 50 60
DENVER CITY 29 34 17 26 / 10 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 29 34 16 25 / 20 20 40 40
CHILDRESS 27 33 15 23 / 20 10 40 80
SPUR 27 34 16 24 / 30 20 30 60
ASPERMONT 29 35 20 27 / 10 20 20 60
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-027-028.
&&
$$
07/31
365
FXUS64 KLUB 251758
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1158 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.AVIATION...
QUICK SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BTWN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
BEFOREHAND WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS BY 03Z
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND CIGS DOWN TOWARD THE LOW END OF VFR
CATEGORY. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH
AND USHER IN A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
LOW THE CEILINGS WILL BE BUT EXPECT THEM TO START OFF MVFR WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.
AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT. ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 23 28 10 / 0 50 30 70
TULIA 56 24 29 12 / 0 30 20 60
PLAINVIEW 58 26 30 13 / 0 30 20 60
LEVELLAND 59 27 33 14 / 0 20 20 50
LUBBOCK 60 27 33 13 / 0 20 20 50
DENVER CITY 58 29 35 17 / 0 10 20 40
BROWNFIELD 59 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 40
CHILDRESS 57 27 33 15 / 0 20 10 30
SPUR 60 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 59 30 36 20 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
201
FXUS64 KLUB 251126 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH
AND USHER IN A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
LOW THE CEILINGS WILL BE BUT EXPECT THEM TO START OFF MVFR WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.
AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT. ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 23 28 10 / 0 50 30 70
TULIA 56 24 29 12 / 0 30 20 60
PLAINVIEW 58 26 30 13 / 0 30 20 60
LEVELLAND 59 27 33 14 / 0 20 20 50
LUBBOCK 60 27 33 13 / 0 20 20 50
DENVER CITY 58 29 35 17 / 0 10 20 40
BROWNFIELD 59 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 40
CHILDRESS 57 27 33 15 / 0 20 10 30
SPUR 60 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 59 30 36 20 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
857
FXUS64 KLUB 251032
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.
AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT. ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION. SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
JORDAN
.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 23 28 10 / 0 50 30 70
TULIA 56 24 29 12 / 0 30 20 60
PLAINVIEW 58 26 30 13 / 0 30 20 60
LEVELLAND 59 27 33 14 / 0 20 20 50
LUBBOCK 60 27 33 13 / 0 20 20 50
DENVER CITY 58 29 35 17 / 0 10 20 40
BROWNFIELD 59 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 40
CHILDRESS 57 27 33 15 / 0 20 10 30
SPUR 60 29 35 16 / 0 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 59 30 36 20 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
397
FXUS64 KLUB 250550
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015
.AVIATION...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SKIRT AROUND ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH
BRINGING PERHAPS FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCDS. MID
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW CIRRUS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...VEERING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 12-15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS BY
06Z TOO LOW TO MAKE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.
CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO
ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY A
LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.
THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 40 20 54 25 / 10 10 0 40
TULIA 43 21 55 26 / 0 10 0 30
PLAINVIEW 44 23 58 28 / 0 10 0 30
LEVELLAND 45 24 61 29 / 0 10 0 20
LUBBOCK 47 25 61 29 / 0 10 0 20
DENVER CITY 45 27 61 30 / 0 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 43 27 60 30 / 0 10 0 20
CHILDRESS 49 26 58 29 / 0 10 0 20
SPUR 45 27 60 31 / 0 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 42 30 58 32 / 0 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
455
FXUS64 KLUB 242347
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BULK OF ENERGY ALOFT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WATCHING THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PROXIMITY TO KLBB.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.
CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO
ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY A
LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.
THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 20 54 25 25 / 10 0 40 30
TULIA 21 55 26 27 / 10 0 30 20
PLAINVIEW 23 58 28 30 / 10 0 30 20
LEVELLAND 24 61 29 32 / 10 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 25 61 29 32 / 10 0 20 20
DENVER CITY 27 61 30 33 / 20 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 27 60 30 33 / 10 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 26 58 29 32 / 10 0 20 10
SPUR 27 60 31 35 / 10 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 30 58 32 36 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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