That being said, so far the consensus is that Trump was the clear winner, because he was smart enough not to show up. And Ted Cruz was the clear loser, because… well, have you seen Ted Cruz? Listened to him? Much less had to be in the same room with him?

When you make a joke that flatlines and everyone hates you so they act like you were serious just to screw with you. pic.twitter.com/UWfBb9rJNI

Ted Cruz’s plan to win this debate is evidently to turn into a plungingly less humorous version of Donald Trump with at least twice the peevishness. He has (surprise!) narcissistically decided that all questions are being asked with the aim of giving other candidates ammunition to “go after” Ted Cruz, so he is going to litigate the conduct of the debate with the moderators.

He has also decided to simultaneously be the bulldog going after the moderators, while embracing the familiar conservative cry of being constantly victimized by questions, issues, press, other conservatives. He’s getting hammered on policy, not on being himself, and trying to play the victim on what is supposed to be his specialty: being a know-it-all. You made your bed, sir.

@Baud: FOX News put together a video montage of Rubio’s flip flops on immigration then invited Jeb to address the issue. Jeb said he (Jeb) backed Rubio’s “Gang of 8” plan (amnesty!) at Rubio’s request but then noted that Rubio “cut and run” when the going got tough. Rubio attempted an angry rejoinder to the effect that Jeb had switched his position too, which Jeb placidly owned and then replied, “So did you, Marco! So did you!”

How in the world did cruz loose a debate to tRump when rump wasn’t even there? How? This guy got elected in TexAss? Are they really that dumb to vote for someone who makes a tree stump look good? This is how a rump wins Iowa? Pathetic and unbelievable that cruz even thinks he can run for President. Thank goodness we have President Obama for another year.

And as of this week, Paul officially has a serious challenger in his parallel race to represent Kentucky in the Senate past 2016.

That opponent is Jim Gray, the Democratic mayor of Lexington who previously ran his family’s construction company headquartered in the city. Gray announced his bid on Tuesday, filing papers just before the state’s election deadline. He also is openly gay, adding a significant cultural twist to a statewide race that’ll take place a year after a Kentucky county clerk named Kim Davis went to jail for refusing to give marriage licenses to same-sex couples in defiance of the Supreme Court.

I flipped over to the debate for about two minutes. I saw fat ass Chris Christie be asked a question about foreign policy that immediately turned into an attack on Hillary Clinton and flipped back to ESPN. He didn’t answer the question and once again demonstrated what a craven bully he is. Yeah, America really needs a stupid, obese, bully with a necklace of warts to lead us to the Promised Land. What a disgusting human being!

@Baud:
By attacking Hillary as though she, Fiorina, already had a lock on the Republican nomination, Fiorina is demonstrating the power of her optimism. And let’s face it, blind optimism is all her candidacy has left even at this early point.

I predict the weekend polls will show Trump to be more or less where he was before this debate: still way in front of everyone else. Having shown off a bit more of his jackholishness, Cruz might drop a few points. Rubio has failed to catch fire, and won’t see much change. At this stage, Jeb couldn’t catch fire if he took a shower in petrol.

@David *Rafael* Koch: To be fair, Brock is an irredeemably sleazy bastard. He was a scumbag when he was sliming Anita Hill and the Clintons in the service of his wingnut overlords, and he’s still a craven weasel, even if he’s on our side now.

That said, I’m definitely getting the feeling that the Sanders peeps think they’re going to lose Iowa. Just reading between the lines in their statements and tweets.

@Betty Cracker: I agree. I think if it were a more standard primary format, it might be closer. But caucuses are weird (I do not fully understand them myself), and the rules seem to benefit Hillary. In fact, nothing reminds me that the US is a very imperfect democracy so much as the primary season, except maybe thinking about the electoral college. So many “buffers” in place between us and the real thing.

@Betty Cracker: I know. He’s the one who came up with the “whitey tape” smear. But I forgive. Plus, Media Matters and American Bridge are great organizations and I love when he took after Mittens and Bain capital. He’s kind of the Wernher Von Braun of politics (ya love him when he’s on your side).

I’m still trying to figure out how someone who has been in Congress for 25 years is the anti-establishment choice especially since he is running for president. The only role in government more establishment than Senator is President.

@David *Rafael* Koch: Brock came up with the whitey tape nonsense? I thought it was that deranged knob in a stupid hat who used to run (and maybe still does) the “No Quarter” PUMA hub. But maybe he was merely the puke funnel.

@MomSense: I think a more accurate casting would be the “anti-corporate choice”. Certainly, Sanders believes in the power of government. I realize anti-establishment is a shorthand that some of his own supporters use, but now we’re arguing semantics instead of substance. Sanders recently put a hold on an FDA nominee because he had revolving-door ties with pharmaceutical companies. You might agree or disagree on whether that is a good thing, but he does put his money where his mouth is.

@Betty Cracker: One of the NYTimes politics guys was on the DRShow yesterday, saying he sees no sign of a huge turnout in Iowa – new voter registration numbers are low, etc., etc. Bernie probably sees the writing on the wall.

Cheers,
Scott.
(Who hopes he sticks around through early March at least – we don’t want HRC crowned too easily.)

The MV Tatoosh, a 300ft yacht owned by the billionaire Allen, ripped up 14,000 square feet of coral reef in the West Bay replenishment zone, according to local officials. About 80% of the reef, situated in a protected area, was destroyed by the ship’s chain.

@Betty Cracker: yes, No Quarter was the vehicle Brock used to plant the rumor. The guy who runs the site is Larry Johnson, ex CIA with a low IQ, who was ferociously pro-clinton because of his friendship with Clinton surrogate Valerie Plame, who is high IQ and wasn’t involved in the smear.

@Baud: Yup. All of the objective evidence they talked about says that Trump is weak in Iowa (people called in who went to Trump rallys for the spectacle, not because they would ever vote for him, etc.), and he won’t get the angry-white-guy-who-hasn’t-voted-before to turn out in the numbers he needs.

But with Cruz apparently falling like a rock, who knows what will happen (though he does have a much stronger ground game there than Trump).

My Uber driver in Des Moines tonight says he’ll probably caucus for Trump, but worries he might also be the anti-Christ.

Even from Republican politicians and insiders, I’m seeing a lot of “Trump may be the American Hitler, is hell-bent on destroying our country and needs to be stopped at any cost, but of course I will support him if he is nominated.”

Not surprised to hear about Trump’s weak ground game. I could easily seen him losing Iowa.

I am surprised that Bernie hasn’t registered an uptick in voter registration. I’m not a campaign organizer by any means, but that would seem to be the easiest part in putting together a good ground game.

@David *Rafael* Koch: Larry Johnson, that’s right — it’s all coming back to me now! That was a deeply silly time. The Sanders vs. Clinton supporter pie fights now are nothing compared to the festival of stupidity then, IMO.

@Baud: It’s not totally clear that we’re seeing the whole picture. For one, Apparently there was a big uptick in registered voters with no declared party affiliation. I fear to think these are all the strange creatures who like “Trump or Sanders”, but I suppose it’s possible that they are holding out for the last minute. If I want to get wildly optimistic for Sanders, it could be these are lefties who dislike the democratic party so much, they only want to register as Dem the day of the caucus, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense even to me. I admit to being registered “independent” when I lived in states with open primaries, mainly because I loathe a lot of the Democratic machine (DWS is a prime, prime, example), but have since realized the futility of such a puny protest action anyway.

The other point, raised in the NYT article itself, is that the voter roles were updated between Dec and January (this is a time when all the dead/inactive people get taken off), so you could have a net change which seems small compared to the actual # of new registered voters.

But all this aside, I do still expect Hillary to win. Sadly. Unlike some here, I think she’s a worse choice for down-ballot coattails. As president, she’ll probably be an ok-ish Obama-third-term. I hope.

@David *Rafael* Koch: For a while Larry Johnson was writing columns on Talking Points Memo and got some attention for being ferociously anti-Bush.

I remember realizing he was an idiot as a result of that incident in which an Air Force plane accidentally flew assembled nuclear bombs over US soil. Johnson passed on some rumor that it was no accident but preparation for an impending nuclear strike on Iran, and he persisted in this even after the story had been extensively debunked by people who actually knew something about bombs and bombers. It was exactly how the whitey tape rumor played out.

Did not catch a word of the GOP debate or Trump counterprogramming last night. Blissed out to have missed it all.

Have been following, fitfully, reporting on the Malheur loon revolt ending with a whimper.
I always had faith the feds/local authorities would handle this well, and they did. It would have ended without fatalities, but for LaVoy Finicum, the guy who ranched foster kids, attaining the death by law enforcement he sought. Sad that even he died, but that one is on him.

@Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class: The last time I was in Spain, we took a tour boat around the bay in Palma. The size of some of those yacht is just insane. The guy who started Frederic’s of Hollywood (or Victoria’s Secret, I forget which) was there at the time and it felt like it took 5 mins to motor past his yacht.

Read Nate’s update to that article. He messed up the new numbers by accident. He goes into the party split more on Twitter. There’s a surge in GOP registrations, comparable to what happened with Dems in 2008. The Dem numbers are comparable to the GOP in 2012. Great news for Trump, bad news for Sanders.

Approaching 80, living in her old RV (“Big Foot”), working seasonal jobs (carnival ride attendant, mall kiosk person). Single elderly woman; did all the right things early in life, even though her 2 marriages did not take. Put herself through business school, worked as a bank secretary and a museum curator. (Note: pink collar work, somewhat.)

Lost it all in the 2008 Great Depression. Had to walk away from her $40,000 mobile home — trailer park owner tripled the rent and made her home unsellable.

Is my candidate going to work for the Doloreses of the world, or blame her for her misdecisions and the sheer vicissitudes of life? (Libertarian dudebros are especially good at this. Life has not him them in the ass enough. Yet.)

I admire Dolores for her pluckiness. She’s got grit. Newspaper article starts with her eating a restaurant prime rib and iced tea meal (leftover beef will be 2 more meals). Winced at that, because how many commenters will assail Dolores for her “bad choices.” Especially if they don’t read further or have poor reading competence (most newspaper commenters, alas).

People are telling us, whether it’s the Washington Post editorial board or anybody else, our ideas are too ambitious — can’t happen. Too bold — really? Well, here’s something which is really bold. In the last 30 years, there has been a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class and working families of this country. The middle class has become poorer and trillions of dollars have been transferred to the top one-tenth of 1 percent.”

“That’s pretty radical, isn’t it?” Sanders said. “Where was The Washington Post to express concern that the middle class was shrinking? Where was The Washington Post talking about this radical transformation of America?”

“Getting back to The Washington Post — check out where all the geniuses on the editorial page were with regard to the invasion of Iraq.”

@Denali: Since coral reef is made up of the dead shells of microscopic critters, it takes time and money to repair a reef. There are several ways it can be done, but it isn’t easy. His misadventure — they want me to believe his pilot didn’t have maps showing where the reef was — will also cost the island in tourist money. A lot of people visit the island(s) to swim around the reef and see the small fish which live in the reef. With no reef, the tourists won’t be interested in visiting the island.

ETA: I would need more time to research if the area was a protected area and what laws the Cayman Islands has about the coral reef. I’ve followed some things about reef because I never used coral beads in jewelry making and I also took part in the Hyperbolic Crocheted Coral Reef project.

Sanders is right in one way when he says Clinton is establishment and he’s not.

If he means she’s in the Democratic party establishment while he isn’t that is quite correct. She has been a Democrat for several decades and he has been a Democrat for several weeks.

If he means she’s in the government establishment while he isn’t that’s outrageously wrong. Both of them have spent the greater part of the last 30 years working for the government and living off government paychecks. Long-term senators are about as establishment as you can get.

[…] some of the Republican debate, as well as the Donald Trump salutes Trump special. The verdict: Trump won them both. At the debate Ben Carson closed big and ominously with a reading of the Constitution. Was this his […]

[…] some of the Republican debate, as well as the Donald Trump salutes Trump special. The verdict: Trump won them both. At the debate Ben Carson closed big and ominously with a reading of the Constitution. Was this his […]