3.5.18

Inside PMB's 2019 Campaign Strategy & The Keyamo Connection

At a recent brainstorming session with
some of his top aides, President Muhammadu Buhari expressed concerns
about the limitations of his anti-corruption effort, saying it seemed
his administration had spent too much time on rhetoric than give vital
sectors needed attention.

Mr Buhari feared he had little to
campaign on, a source knowledgeable about the meeting told PREMIUM
TIMES. The president argued that if he were to step down, the “damage
would be much”, therefore, he needed a second term to “work for the
people”, our sources said.

“The president pointed to the fact
that three years down the line, he is not busy going around cutting
tapes to commission projects,” one source said on the condition his
identity be protected because he was not authorised to speak to the
media.

That meeting was a defining moment in Mr Buhari’s already
turbulent presidency. At the session, aides agreed the president needed
to seek re-election, but all sides arrived at a telling decision. The
corruption war rhetoric, even though perceived to be largely without
substance, must continue if the president stood a chance of a second
term, they advised.

“The meeting analysed the situation and
arrived at the conclusion that the best option available to them is to
still use the corruption discourse,” a source said.
After a prolonged
wait, Mr Buhari predictably announced his intention to run for office
again early April, telling his party’s national executive committee he
took the decision following a barrage of calls for him to run again.

That
declaration, unlike Mr Buhari’s 2014 announcement, has been met with
increased disinterest, even amongst the president’s supporters.
“Nobody
in this administration has shown me any innovative way of fighting
corruption and the current president continues to operate the same
opaque and fraudulent system,” said Gbola Oba, a public affairs
commentator and CEO of Automedics Limited in Lagos, who campaigned for
Mr Buhari in 2015 across the Southwest.

“The unfortunate irony
that can become an icing on the cake of the disillusionment and the
predicament that his anti-corruption war is the brazen corruption under
perpetrated or condoned by Mr Buhari, especially the Maina scandal or
the recent scandal involving his Finance Minister.”

Critics have
characterised the administration’s corruption initiative as selective
and unconvincing. While several former administration officials have
been arrested for alleged fraud, none has been convicted. A few have
either returned or forfeited loots to the federal government, while far
more corruption suspects still walk free.

Even more, the Buhari
administration has faced its own allegations of corruption, with the
Maina case, NNPC’s uncovered N50 billion, amongst many. Several cabinet
members, including Ministers Kemi Adeosun and Rotimi Amaechi, and
security chiefs Tukur Buratai, Abdulrahman Dambazau, have also been
accused of fraud.

Aides said the meeting with the president
before his declaration showed Mr Buhari somehow agreed that the
corruption war was not as effective. They said the meeting especially
agreed the government had done little to justify its claim of massive
fraud under the Jonathan government.

“The president realised
shortly after assumption of office that several allegations his party
raised about the past government were based on false dossier,” another
source said.

The presidency did not respond to requests for comments on this claim.

Campaign strategy and Keyamo connection
Our
sources said the president’s advisers at the meeting counselled that
regardless of the current limitation, the Buhari second term campaign
would have to stick to anti-corruption as its major rallying cry.

While
the message would still be same, the approach would differ, they
advised. This time, the campaign will seek to be more effective by
providing “concrete evidence” in support of allegations of corruption
against opposition elements, especially those nominated as presidential
candidates.

The appointment of popular lawyer, Festus Keyamo, to
lead the communication team of President Buhari’s campaign in 2019, was a
deliberate design to further that strategy, our sources said. Mr
Keyamo’s appointment was advised by Transport Minister and chairman of
the Buhari 2019 campaign organisation, Rotimi Amaechi.

The idea,
our sources said, was that as a top government prosecutor who has
handled several prominent corruption cases for the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission, Mr Keyamo’s access to corruption dossiers
of opposition politicians would come handy at the appropriate time.

Mr.
Keyamo declined comments to PREMIUM TIMES Monday night, saying it would
be inappropriate for him to comment on a statement that was not
publicly made or officially communicated to him by the president.

Tax as a weapon

The campaign has another strategy, PREMIUM TIMES learnt.

For
politically-exposed persons who have long dragged their feet in meeting
their tax obligations, the Buhari team is also plotting to make them
pay a huge political cost, our sources said. The ongoing Voluntary Asset
and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS) campaign will serve as a vital
tool there.

The strategy would be to use politicians’
non-compliance with tax statutes to cripple their finance sources ahead
of the election, our sources added. Some politicians might even be more
unfortunate as the campaign strategy include shutting down their
businesses, arresting and arraigning opponents to neutralise and
dissuade them from presenting any serious political challenge.

Some
analysts say the communication strategy of the Buhari campaign might
seem robust, but the ability of Mr Keyamo to successfully anchor it and
earn the president a second term could be more tasking than estimated.
“How
they think a man who bungled Bola Ige’s murder case and could not
successfully prosecute a corruption case despite years of humongous
earnings from taxpayers money could lead a campaign to victory beats the
imagination,” PDP strategist Demola Olarewaju told PREMIUM TIMES. “But
we would like to have him on board.”
Mr Olarewaju said the
president’s three years in office have further revealed him as not only
corrupt but “morally and politically toxic for Nigeria’s survival”.

But
the president’s apparent sloppiness towards old and recent corruption
in his government may have a lot to do with his inherent personality
traits than complicity, said APC strategist Ayo Akanji.

“The
president is deliberate and meticulous in taking actions,” Mr Akanji
said. “But this is not to assume that he doesn’t strike at the
appropriate time as you could see with the dismissal of Babachir Lawal
and Ayodele Oke.”

Mr Akanji said the president’s conviction that
corruption is the bane of Nigeria’s development remained as strong as
ever, saying he does not expect him to flinch from the message.

“The
president would continue to see corruption as repulsive,” he said. “But
this campaign will not be sacrificed for the country’s national
security and economy to ensure that none of his three-pronged focus is
abandoned.”