Curran's Patriots-Cardinals preview review

By Tom E. Curran

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PREVIEW

GLENDALE, Arizona -- However you want to frame it – first game of the season, first game of Tom Brady’s suspension, first game for Jimmy Garoppolo as starter – there’s a whiff of the unknown around this game that’s really unmatched in recent memory. You figure it will be tight because the Patriots don’t get blown out. But can you be sure anything will look the same? You figure Arizona should have the upper hand because they are good and they are at home and the Patriots have so much to overcome. But haven’t we been down the “Patriots are meat…” road before and found out otherwise?

REVIEW

All that time we spent gum-flapping about whether or not the Patriots managed the preseason correctly and put Jimmy Garoppolo in a position to succeed evaporated pretty quickly. Garoppolo was poised, the offensive game plan was tailored to allow him to make smart throws, he managed the game well, the defense held Arizona to seven in the first half and 14 of the Cardinals points came after turnovers. It was just the kind of unexpected outcome you come to expect from New England.

When the Patriots have the ball

PREVIEW

Start with Arizona’s key defensive stats. They forced 33 turnovers last year and allowed 35.7 third-down conversions. Up front, Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones are going to be the most noteworthy players to contend with. Campbell is a force and Jones -- brought in exclusively from New England to beat tackles and get upfield -- will be going against either Marcus Cannon or Cameron Fleming on the edges. The Patriots’ offensive line is going to be without the tackles they entered the offseason hoping would start the opener. Their interior offensive line will include rookie Joe Thuney with another rookie, Ted Karras, possibly getting some time as well. At the linebacker level, Deone Bucannon is an interesting linebacker/safety hybrid who gets used in multiple ways. Corner Patrick Peterson is one of the best in the league and safety Tyrann Mathieu is a game-changer. The Patriots have quickness on their side at the wideout position with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan working the short-range stuff that Tom Brady delivers with accuracy. Will Garoppolo be able to approach the same level of competency with his reads and precision? Martellus Bennett, Clay Harbor and A.J. Derby are the tight ends New England would like to get into mismatch situations. There is no “downfield” threat per se. In the running game, if the Patriots can get success with LeGarrette Blount, that’s a huge and evening-altering development. No sure thing, though.

REVIEW

The Cardinals got their turnovers – a first-half fumble from Garoppolo and a second-half drop from Blount – but the Patriots were maddeningly efficient on third down – 10 for 16. There will be plenty for Dante Scarnecchia to yell about with his offensive line but they weathered the storm of Arizona’s blitzes for the most part and Garoppolo was good enough with his feet and his willingness to stand in (and occasionally scramble) to negate Arizona’s pressure for the most part. Aside from the touchdown throw to Hogan, Garoppolo was throwing into some pretty tight fits for most of the night. His accuracy was above-average. Edelman caught all seven balls thrown his way for 66 yards and showed no ill effects from the foot injury that caused offseason concern. Bennett played a big role in the blocking scheme and – while the Patriots insistence on running the football was not what people are accustomed to – it was a brilliantly called game by Josh McDaniels. Given the circumstances and the personnel, it was a remarkable performance, especially the game-winning drive.

When the Cardinals have the ball

PREVIEW

They just love going downfield. In 2015, speedy John Brown averaged 15.4 yards per catch on 65 catches and big Michael Floyd averaged 16.3 on 52. The steadiest and most talented Cardinals wideout is Larry Fitzgerald coming off a 109-catch season in 2015. The Cardinals weren’t overly sharp in the preseason and that’s a concern. Their running game is good enough to lean on as well with three varied styles of running backs – Chris Johnson, David Johnson and third-down back Andre Ellington. Carson Palmer is a smart, experienced, strong-armed quarterback coming off his best season and the offense designed by Bruce Arians is complex. The Patriots will spend a lot of the night with five and six defensive backs on the field which will make Arizona tempted to run. The matchup between the Patriots’ defensive front and linebackers and Arizona’s offensive line trying to clear space will be a big one to watch. The Patriots have so much versatile talent on their defense with Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and now Barkevious Mingo that there’s a lot we don’t yet know about how they will attack. They have to get heat on Palmer, though.

REVIEW

The first two Cardinal scores came on drives of 54 and 33 yards after fumbles. The final one came after a singularly outstanding run by David Johnson of 45 yards that set up an acrobatic touchdown catch by Larry Fitzgerald. Aside from the Johnson run, the Patriots run defense was very good. When Carson Palmer started going off late, he was fitting the ball into tight windows. It was hard to chalk up many of the receptions to Patriots defensive failures as much as it was just outstanding offense. The Cardinals working backwards during their final drive – a hold and a 4-yard loss on a screen – squished their momentum and took away the chip-shot game-winner they looked to be in position for.

The kicking game

PREVIEW

Cardinals kicker Chandler Catanzaro missed four kicks last year and was 6 for 9 outside 40 yards. Their returners for much of last year were David Johnson on kickoff returns and Peterson on punt returns. Both are threats. Stephen Gostkowski is coming off an All-Pro season but closed 2015 with the knee-buckling PAT miss at the outset of the AFC Championship Game so starting smoothly will be a step toward vanquishing that ugly memory. The Patriots will likely use either Cyrus Jones, a rookie, or Julian Edelman on punt returns. Field position is going to be important and, tying it back to Garoppolo, he needs to be smart on third downs and let punter Ryan Allen do his job on fourth down if a play isn’t there. He also needs to be sharp on plus-30 plays to not go backwards and take the Pats out of field goal range of Gostkowski. Elementary, yes, but it’s the kind of situational stuff a young quarterback can lose track of.

REVIEW

The low snap on the field goal attempt set in motion Catanzaro’s miss on the would-be game-winner. Also mixed into the final result was – as Bill Belichick pointed out – the coverage on the kickoff that sent Arizona the ball. The Cardinals started at their 8. And while they dug out quickly, the field position ended up being a factor. The Patriots kickoff coverage – and strategy – was interesting. You don’t often see a returner end up averaging 15.3 yards on kickoff returns but that’s what Ellington ended up with. Nod to Stephen Gostkowski who was good from 47, 53 and the game-winner from 32.

Cardinals medical report

Game within the game

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Attending to the mental state and comfort level of Young James Garoppolo. Witness Thursday night’s game between the Panthers and Broncos and how Denver got Trevor Simien a number of short, three-step, simple-read throws to players like Emmanuel Sanders and running back C.J. Anderson to get Simien in a groove. Arizona is bound to work at pre-snap confusion. The Patriots will work to make things simple for Garoppolo. A sub-heading to this would also include Garoppolo’s pre-snap determinations of what Arizona is trying to do and manipulating his receivers with motion to help unveil what the Cardinals are up to.

REVIEW

One of the best plays of the night from Garoppolo was finding Hogan when the Cardinals seemed to botch coverage. Not positive if Garoppolo audibled to the play, but if he indeed did, he made a great read. Prior to that, the Patriots set Garoppolo up with the same kind of underneath throws to shifty wideouts that are a staple of the offense. New England scoring on five of their nine drives – including their first two – put Garoppolo in a good spot in terms of composure. They took the fight to Arizona a bit but also backed it off by leaning on the running game and mixing in short throws to James White and Martellus Bennett instead of just relying on Garoppolo to throw midrange crossers and sideline comebacks.

Cardinals gotta stop

PREVIEW

Julian Edelman. Without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup, Arizona will be able to focus itself on limiting Edelman, whose short-range quickness helps him uncover in man coverage against most anybody. Likely a job that will fall frequently to Tyrann Mathrieu and Patrick Peterson leaving the Patriots to find other matchups to plumb.

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Couldn’t do it. Edelman – as we mentioned – caught all seven balls thrown his way and worked hard for YAC yards. He didn’t get the attention he should have from the Arizona defense and he was the offensive catalyst.

Patriots gotta stop

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David Johnson. The second-year back from Northern Iowa actually wasn’t the wire-to-wire horse in 2015 he may be this year. He had 161 touches, 125 carries and 36 receptions. His production in the running game, though, is what’s interesting. Eight touchdowns, and a 4.6 yards per carry average. His size, speed combo makes it imperative that the Patriots tackle surely and that’s always a challenge in the early going of the year when teams aren’t as accustomed to full-hitting as they would have been in the age of two-a-day, full-padded practices.

REVIEW

Johnson gained 44 on 15 carries aside from the big 45-yarder. The Patriots did a nice job keeping him in check but the kid is good and that 45-yarder was as much about his skill and vision as it was the Patriots failing to lock him down. He also caught four for 43 more yards. Give the Patriots a B for keeping him mostly in check.

That sums it up Patriots style

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“Every game has its own variations and its own individual matchups and all of that. He’s a very creative coach. He has got a foundation that he builds from and then he can also expand that into whatever areas he feels like you’re vulnerable at. He does a good job of it. You kind of know what they want to do but there are a lot of changeups, there are a lot of variables that he’ll throw at you.” -- Bill Belichick on the offensive game planning of Bruce Arians.

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Arizona wasn’t able to consistently get anything going until late. They gained 175 of their total yards on their last three drives when their offense and Palmer settled in and worried less about matchups and more about getting the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.

That sums it up Cardinals style

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“They’re a very smart group and they’re very multi-faceted. The guys can do a bunch of different things. That’s kind of the way we try to build our defense also, to have guys who are very position flexible so that you just don’t get a beat on with this guy’s going to be lined up right here and you go and get a game plan for him. They do a great job of moving people around to give you a number of looks, whether it’s pressure or dropping eight.” -- Arians on the Patriots defense.

REVIEW

The Patriots didn’t really confuse Palmer as much as they did frustrate him. New England came up with three sacks. The pressure overall was just pretty good but it was the secondary which – for most of the game – played well.