Monday, January 28, 2008

Obama gains in latest Gallup -- but not so much?

Gallup's director, Frank Newport, issued a new analysis today based on the organization's latest daily polls -- which find Barack Obama and Mitt Romney gaining on the frontrunners nationally, though still a bit back. "Clinton now leads Obama by 11 percentage points in Gallup's three-day rolling average nationally; as recently as Jan. 18-20 she was ahead by 20 points," Newport writes. That three-day margin is 44% to 33%.

"At the same time, Gallup analysis of interviewing conducted [only] Sunday shows Clinton is ahead by 10 points, not the immediately significant impact of Obama's overwhelming win in South Carolina that Obama supporters may have hoped for." He notes that endorsements by various Kennedys may now provide a boost.

"The Republican race appears to be tightening," he adds. "John McCain's lead over Mitt Romney is now only 8 points, from a recent high of 14 points in polling conducted early last week. Mike Huckabee remains slightly behind Romney, while Rudy Giuliani is in fourth place with 13% of the Republican national vote. The results of Tuesday's Florida primary could have a significant effect on the standing of the GOP candidates nationally."

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G.M. is the author of more than a dozen books (click on covers above and below), the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher and until recently a daily writer for The Nation. Email: epic1934@aol.com. Twitter: @GregMitch