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Tuesday, 23 October 2012

The Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Indian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do. In general I always like to wait until after qualifying
before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or
not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set
of tips do best.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5
Toro Rosso's steady improvement in form throughout the season seems to have gone unnoticed by the bookies, so given that Ricciardo has achieved a points scoring finish at four of the last five Grand Prix he looks to be generously priced at odds of 3.5.

Retire On First Lap:10 points on Romain Grosjean at 23.0
Given his well publicised first lap troubles I was surprised to see SkyBet offering odds of 23.0 for Grosjean to retire on the first lap, so this
one has to be worth a small bet.Top Six Finish:20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.53
Given
that Kimi has finished in the top six at each and every one of the last
nine Grand Prix, he has to look a solid bet to record another top six
finish at this weekend's Indian Grand Prix.

To Win Outright:15 points on Mark Webber at 8.0
With three successive victories Sebastian Vettel is understandably
the even money favourite, but I prefer to take a bit more of a gamble
and look for bigger odds when betting on the outright winner. Among the
rest of the field Mark Webber (given the current strength of the Red
Bull) and Lewis Hamilton are the two that stand out but considering
Hamilton's recent reliability issues I'm therefore going to go for a
small bet on Mark Webber at odds of 8.0.

To Finish On The Podium:10 points on Sergio Perez at 11.0
Fernando Alonso has been Mr Consistent in the podium market this
season (8 of the last 12 Grand Prix have seen Alonso finish on the
podium), so he has to be worth considering even at odds as short as
1.83. However, I'm also tempted by the odds of 11.0 which SkyBet offer
on Sergio Perez. Admittedly, he's been a bit accident prone in recent
races but that could be down to trying too hard to impress new employers
McLaren, and if he settles down and drives a more composed race then
Perez is always a decent outside bet for a podium. Given that Alonso
tends to qualify unremarkably, his odds are therefore likely to drift
out slightly after qualifying, so post-qualifying would seem to be the
time to bet on Alonso. At this stage I'm therefore going to go for the
more risky bet on Sergio Perez rather than the safer option of Fernando
Alonso.

Fastest Qualifier:25 points on Mark Webber at 5.0
Sebastian Vettel is the man in form at the moment during the race, but
when it comes to qualifying he has in fact only managed pole position at one of
the last eight Grand Prix. He therefore looks a risky bet at odds of
only 1.8. Once again I'm torn between Lewis Hamilton and Mark Webber,
but the fact that Mark has put it on the front row at both of the last
two races tips the scales in his favour so I'm going to go for Mark Webber for pole at odds of 5.0.

As already mentioned, I'll reassess things after qualifying and offer
another selection of tips, and then see how my predictions compare.

Disclaimer:
A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can
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Footnote: All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.