RPI is high, but expectations low

March 15, 2006|CURT RALLO Tribune Staff Writer

Editor's note: Curt Rallo covers the Big Ten Conference for the Tribune. Mark Twain was fond of saying there are three kind of lies -- lies, (darn) lies, and statistics. This season, the Big Ten Conference ranked No. 1 in men's basketball conferences in RPI power ratings. And the Big Ten boasted its best out-of-conference winning percentage in six seasons at .805 (107-26). The 107 victories gave the league its most out-of-conference victories prior to NCAA tournament play in Big Ten history. Yet this was also a conference whose teams lost games to Gardner Webb, North Dakota State, Evansville, Loyola-Chicago, Illinois-Chicago and Indiana State. And North Dakota State, on the heels of its victory against Wisconsin, went out and lost to Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne. This was also a season in which the Big Ten lost the ACC/Big Ten challenge (six games to five). Last season, the Big Ten landed two teams in the Final Four -- Illinois and Michigan State. This season, the Big Ten will be hard-pressed to repeat that feat, despite the impressive RPI. In fact, it could be a challenge for the Big Ten to land two of its six selections in the Sweet Sixteen. Ohio State, the No. 2 seed in the Minneapolis Region, has to get past Davidson and then the winner of the Georgetown-Northern Iowa game to reach the Sweet Sixteen. But the Buckeyes, the regular-season Big Ten champ, had a losing record in the regular-season against teams seeded 2-through-6 for the Big Ten Tournament. Iowa would probably have to go through West Virginia to get to the Sweet Sixteen, Indiana through Gonzaga, Michigan State through North Carolina, Wisconsin through Villanova, and Illinois through Washington. Here are five areas to consider when making your picks. 1. Nightmare matchup A tough matchup for NCAA opponents is Ohio State's three guards: Je'Kel Foster, Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler. The trio gives Ohio State one of the quickest backcourts in the nation, an advantage that will come in handy for a potential tournament trail that could include Georgetown, Florida and Villanova just to get to the Final Four. Foster, Lewis and Butler mean the Buckeyes will always have high-octane fastbreak potential, and all three average better than 10 points a game. They also shoot better than 45 percent from 3-point range. Illinois has one of the most dynamic 1-2 combinations in the tournament in center James Augustine and guard Dee Brown. Augustine is an athletic 6-foot-10 senior who can run the fastbreak like a fleet guard. Augustine's explosive first step leaves many slower-footed opponents looking at the back of his jersey as he throws down the slam. Brown is a 6-foot speedster who possesses amazing 3-point range. His quickness has him ranked in the top five in steals this season in the Big Ten and leading the point on Illinois' lethal fastbreaks. 2. Sleeper star Look out for Michigan State's Shannon Brown. He's a 6-foot-4 guard who can soar above the rim, nail the 3, and has lightning speed. Brown averages 18.2 points a game, and has the ability to take over a game. If the Spartans can get past George Mason, and North Carolina knocks off Murray State, Brown could be a difference-maker in a Michigan State-North Carolina matchup. Brown comprises Michigan State's "Big Three," along with Paul Davis and Maurice Ager. Brown is one of the most electrifying dunkers in the Big Ten, and can give the Spartans a wave of momentum with his electric thunderdunks. 3. Upset alert Ohio State could meet its match in the second round against Georgetown, provided both teams advance against first-round opponents. Georgetown has the athletic ability to match Ohio State's speedy guards, and the Hoyas won't be fazed by the Buckeyes after confronting a steady diet of Big East brutes like UConn, Villanova, Pitt and West Virginia. If Georgetown can answer the force inside of the Big Ten's player of the year, Terence Dials, the Buckeyes could disappoint hometown fans in Dayton. Seniors Greg Brunner and Jeff Horner have Iowa's Hawkeyes poised for greatness after capturing the Big Ten Tournament championship, but a potential second-round matchup against West Virginia could be trouble for the No. 3-seed Hawkeyes. 4. Teams you don't want to meet Considering the inspired way Indiana has been playing of late, the Hoosiers are capable of being the surprise team of the tournament. If the Hoosiers continue to rally around outgoing coach Mike Davis, they could potentially pull off a second-round shocker against Gonzaga. The potential loss of Robert Vaden to a sprained ankle could be a problem for the Hoosiers, who also need reserve Ben Allen to step up and be productive inside and when he gives Marco Killingsworth a break. The key to Indiana's potential to be a bracket buster is for the guards to hit their 3-pointers and put pressure on opposing defenses with their quickness. 5. Confident coaches Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Illinois' Bruce Weber get the nod here. Both guided their teams to the Final Four last season, with Weber taking the Fighting Illini to the national championship game. Izzo is the class act of the Big Ten right now. He's taken Michigan State to the Final Four four times in the last seven seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Spartans make it back to Indianapolis, where Michigan State won the national title in 2000. Izzo has a talent for getting his teams to play better in the tournament. Although the Spartans fell far below expectations in the regular season, Izzo gets his teams Spartan tough at tournament time. He also is a master at the quick turn-around in terms of preparing his club for a game on short notice. Michigan State is probably the most battle-tested team of the Big Ten selections, another Izzo tradition. Michigan State played Gonzaga, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Wichita State in the regular season, along with a brutal Big Ten schedule. Izzo is at his best at tournament time. He is second among active coaches for NCAA Tournament winning percentage at .767 (23-7). Duke's Mike Krzyzewski is first at .786 (66-18). Weber proved last season to be an effective tactician as he handled a phenomenal run to the title game before falling short against North Carolina. Weber and Izzo have similar traits. Both were schooled by coaches who emphasized gritty, tough play. Izzo served as an assistant coach for 10 seasons under Jud Heathcote, and Weber learned about bare-knuckled basketball in 18 seasons under coach Gene Keady.