US-East Asia News 12-30-19

Month: August 2019

Hong Kong has been a center of focus for much of the world these past few weeks, with good reason. Record-breaking protests, which initially began due to outcry over a potential change in extradition policy and now far exceeded that initial issue, have been rocking the city. Protestors have clashed with police who turned to tear gas and rubber bullets to repel them.

Amid this chaotic situation there have been whispers of fear that a tragedy from 30 years ago will be recreated.

However, it would be foolish for China to create another Tiananmen.

The main reason for this is quite simple. Information. In the age of the Internet any move China makes will be seen and heard around the world instantly, and without the need to smuggle pictures out in a box of tea. This is especially important given that China is currently embroiled in two major issues that are taking up a great deal of its focus and resources.

The combination of these two issues put a great deal of pressure on the Chinese government, a fact that seems to irritate Chinese officials profoundly. This suggests that China is feeling the pressure of so many eyes watching them. If true, Hong Kong would certainly be no exception to those watchful eyes.

However, one does need to take pause. Though this article is of the opinion that it would be foolish for China to create another Tiananmen that does not mean that those who make up the Chinese government are of the same opinion or that they won’t. Here are some things that should be considered.

Though much of the international community has condemned China’s actions against the Uyghurs, there are some who commended them. 37 countries, including: Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, the Philippines, and Zimbabwe have pledge their support for China openly. However, one could easily point out that the human rights records of these countries supporting China are quite dubious themselves and thus their word on this matter means little. That said, that these countries are backing China does present a problem towards limiting any action the Chinese might take with regards to Hong Kong.

It should also be stated that American support, limited as it may be now, is not assured. Given that the Trump administration is currently trying to create a trade deal with China; needs Chinese aid to better assure a North Korean denuclearization treaty; and have given security assurances to Taiwan, including recently selling them billions of dollars worth of F-16 fighter jets, much to China’s displeasure; they may decide any fight over Hong Kong is not worth the risk.

To reiterate, though the idea of a Tiananmen Square situation occurring in Hong Kong should be met with great sadness, and would be unwise of the Chinese government to enact in an era in which it is trying to be an active participant in the international community, it is not impossible that the Chinese government will decide to use force against Hong Kong, in spite of any damage or pressure inflicted upon China or its image. That said, it is possible that they will recognize that the world is watching them very intently and decide not to act in an aggressive manner for the sake of not turning the international community against them further. As such, one may hope that cooler heads prevail with this situation and that a positive outcome comes about.