NFBC Style Mock Draft

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Before you say it, folks… yes, I waited too long on pitchers in general, so I was one pitcher behind the whole way. And, I took a few too many risks on offense, though I do like the upside of this group on the whole. This would be a competitive team but would need some help in free agency…

Hey guys. I’m in a long time 8×8 non-keeper with extra categories being hitting 2B, BB, K, as well as pitching BB, CG & SHO. This obviously makes Roy Halladay our Albert Pujols. I hate overvaluing pitching like this. But, alas that is how the league has been and always will be. I gotta play by those rules.

This is the first year we are going to do an auction draft, as well as use FAAB ($260/$100 caps). We have 24 man rosters, with the major differences being 2 catchers, 4 SPs, 2 RP and 1 P. Can you help me break down how you would budget for a draft like this? I tend to lean towards a much more balanced attack. However, that puts Halladay way out of my reach. Do I bail on Halladay and go for high upside/high risk guys like Ben Sheets at a much lower cost?

How would you recommend I set up my budget and draft strategy for such a specialized league?

I was thinking Ramirez, Cabrera, Mauer, Wright, and Crawford. Some mock drafts and pre-rankings that I’ve seen place Upton above some of those guys though. Who would you keep? I keep coming back to the idea that Crawford’s steals are just too much for me to give away.

It definitely comes down to J. Upton vs. Crawford for that fifth spot and I’ll have to side with Crawford and his extensive track record. It seems unheard of to pass on Upton in a keeper but such is the nature of 9 team leagues!

This is a really interesting league to have an auction format with. I think your comp of Doc being like Albert shows you that you probably can’t afford to have two guys of this ilk. You should always spend more on hitting than pitching simply because you’ll have more bats than arms and pitching is way more volatile than hitting (hitters hit). As great a year as I think Doc will have, I think you need to pass. This being a mixed league makes that way easier. Now should Sheets be your ace? No, but how about aiming for Haren and maybe settlling for Lester, Johnson, Wainwright as an ace. I’ve been in an auction league for 12 years now (granted it’s a keeper) and every year unpredictable outcomes happen on draft day, part of the madness and the fun. Do your prep, try to stick to it but keep a very open mind and don’t panic. Hope this helps.

*Strasburg $5 (8,0,3.85, 1.32, off the chart excitement value) (yeah, i got him for $0 on reserve last year and carried him all year). In your just completed draft it went Upton (R4), Figgins (R5), Etheir (R5), Strasburg (17), but that includes runs and doesn’t include the dollars.

I’d stick with B.J. at least for this season. $15 is still a very good price for a guy who can carry you in SBs and still has the ability to reach the 20 HR mark. The absence of Runs hurts Figgins too and I think Ethier’s line last year represents his ceiling. All solid prices but I can’t seem to get off the Upton bandwagon.

I’ll let Siano address the A-Rod over Braun decision when he gets the chance.

Actually didn?t wrestle at all with A-Rod vs. Braun but A-Rod or Utley. Decided to go with the guy with a very solid chance to be #1 player this year, not that Braun can?t but A-Rod is still A-Rod. I also figured I could pass on Braun because I usually get two OFs in first four rounds. Targeted Grady in 2nd and Granderson in 4th but had to ?settle? for Werth and Markakis, just missed on both but I like these guys a lot. Love Braun but the A-Rod man crush is back baby!

Thanks Zach & Mike. I always wrestle with man-crush bias and its sister, confirmation bias. We all have our guys, the ones grabbed as rookies, or whose breakout year led to a championship, or who play for a favorite team, etc. With those guys, we ignore bad projections (or subconsciously tacking on numbers) and buy into the ones that confirm your man-crush the good ones. BJ & Braun are guys like that and I was half hoping you’d talk me out of keeping BJ so I can be free of his miserable batting average, but what the hell, he can’t possibly hit sub .250 with only 11 hrs, right?

Mike- Are you and Cory running an MLB network special again this year? Or did all those looks you two gave Harold Reynolds and his line-up talk get you permanently dis invited?

Hey 411,
I’m not saying this is a reach but why is Longoria ranked so much higher than Zimmerman. When you look at their numbers from last year they are very close with Zimmer’s maybe even being better. I know Longoria has a better lineup around him (and missed time) but the fact they are only 26 and 25 years old respectively makes me wonder is Longoria’s upside really a difference in value of 20 picks or so?
Tex is a reach at 6th especially considering how deep 1B is. (Must be a New Yorker :))
I guess people haven’t learned not to take a pitcher (Lincecum) in the first round after last year’s debacle of Johan.

And best value of the draft : David Wright at 14! lol ..much better than 27th,28th etc overall…

Hi guys,
Thanks to Cory for the projections. They are a great tool!
5×5 mixed keeper. We keep 5. I’m already keeping Fielder, Kinsler, A-Rod and Holliday. I thought that Ichiro was another lockdown keeper but after looking at the projections with SPG I’ve started second-guessing myself. Barring a trade, would I be better off keeping Granderson, Ethier or Zobrist all of whom are rated higher than Ichiro according to the projections.
Thanks, Bas

Yes, the Fantasy 411 Preview Show on the network will be on Sunday, March 21 from 8-10 PM ET.
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maysways,

I think the concern with Zimmerman is whether he can match last year’s 33 homers. Personally, I’m very skeptical considering his prior track record but it’s true that he’s still very young. An 18-20 pick difference might be slightly too high but I’d definitely opt for Longoria even if it’s a round earlier.
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Jaded,

Totally on board with your plan. At this point in his career I see Manny as being very replaceable. None of the guys you have are legit top-three rounders at this time but Upton and Morneau could certainly earn that status by year’s end and I’ll opt for the dominant closer over Manny.

Nate, I’m not a believer in the “targets” approach, because it assumes that each season and team is just like every other. I prefer to build projected standings during the draft based on each team’s picks, because it gives you a much better feel for your team’s strengths and weaknesses compared to all other teams.

If it will help, here’s a recent blog post with the average first and last place stats for each NFBC “main event” league last year, minus the top and bottom five outliers in each category:

I’m actually going to pick Granderson here. Ichiro is as solid as they come in the AVG department but he’s a huge liability in HRs and RBIs. Also, his speed is on the decline. I think Granderson matches or exceeds Ichiro’s Runs total and swipes a comparable number of bags. So it basically comes down to Ichiro’s AVG advantage vs. Granderson’s superior power. I’ll go with the power and bank on Granderson significantly improving his AVG. Don’t forget that he batted .302 back in ’07, so he has in the past shown the ability to hit for average.

What’s up 411 nation,
I just happened upon the MLB/Bloomberg Sports draft kit and in-season tools. It intrigues me (as do most things shiny and new). I’m wondering what the 411 boys/nation think about the value and usefulness of this tool. Is it worth shelling out the money for? Any insights would be greatly appreciated.
Andy

Hey guys. Any chance you can post the results of the NL LABR draft? I was trying to find to assess the values I came up with but can’t find them online. Not sure if it’s proprietary or some kind of secret but if not it’d be awesome if you guys would post.

Hey guys,
I was just wondering if you endorsed this potential trade:
I give:
Leo Nunez
Brad Penny

I get:
Mark Buehrle
(and I pick up Dotel off the waiver wire)
My pitchers are:
Felix, Lee, Piniero, Niemann, Nunez, Penny, Francisco, and Lyon (who I have been valiantly trying to trade but to no avaiil)

I haven’t purchased the Bloomberg draft tools (I’m already suffering from information overload!) but it does look very intriguing and seems like something worth giving a try for only 32 bucks. I encourage anyone who has purchased it to chime in here.
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Manoman,

That’s a pretty weak closer group for a 10 team league and I suggest you try to swing a deal to upgrade there, but I’d definitely do the trade for Buehrle. He’s a clear upgrade over Penny and you can make a good case that Dotel is an upgrade over Nunez.
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Perm,

I like this draft, I see a few sleepers missing that no one really picked up on unless I overlooked them. At any rate nice mock up, My draft date for mlb.com fantasy league is the day before Opening day. Keeps me thinking, and I should have a good report on who’s going into opening day on or off the DL. Good luck!

Cpaul5, McCutchen and Pence are very close in my rankings, so it really depends on your needs… obviously if you need speed then McCutchen is a better fit, but Pence offers a much greater upside in power and will chip in a dozen or so steals. My expectation is that McCutchen will end up going before Pence in the majority of drafts, but I wouldn’t mind waiting another round or so and getting a guy with an established, solid track record, and at an age where he still could take another small step forward.

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