CNN Announces First Exit Polls, Others Follow

Update 7:45pm: You can search the ABC exit polls here. CNN's are up for each state. Just go to their presidential page and click on the state you are interested in.

Update 6:45pm: 72% of white evangelicals voted for McCain. Bush got 78% of them, a six point drop for McCain. McCain is winning them in every state, with Mississippi at the top, Minnesota at the bottom.

Update: 6:30pm: Higher income voters (earning more than $100k) went for Obama nationally 52% to 47%. In Ohio, these voters preferred McCain but in Colorado, they preferred Obama. Translation: the tax issue isn't working nationally for McCain.
[More below....]

Update 6:00 pm: 93% say the economy is really bad, but 47% say it will get better. On taxes, 70% say Obama will raise taxes, 61% say McCain will. (This matches a poll that was released earlier this week.)
Update: 5:40 pm: New voters: In every state, they went to Obama. 72% of new voters voted for Obama.

Update: 5:30 pm: Terrorism, 9% of voters said it was their main issue. Of them, McCain led 86% to 13%. In PA, 88% of those voters chose McCain, 12% Obama. McCain led with these voters in all the states they showed. My view: Who in their right mind thinks terrorism is the top issue, over the economy? These are clearly fringe voters, happily, there are only 9% of them.

Update 5:14 pm: Iraq: Concern about the war helped Obama. Among the 10% who said they were most concerned about it, 63% voted for Obama, 36% for McCain. Obama won voters most concerned about Iraq in 48 states, the exceptions were Kentucky and one I couldn't read.

5pm ET, CNN is about to announce first exit polls. I'll update.

Top Issue: The Economy, 62% said it's the top issue on their minds. Iraq? 10%. Terrorism, health care: 9%.

The exit polls are done at the polling places. They get a questionnaire. Every sixth or so voter gets them.

What about those who mailed in their ballots or early voters? No exit polls, but they are telephoned, land line or cell, and asked the same questions.

Obama's going to win for some time now, much to the disappointment of his buddies at Fox. He's apparently got a pretty good Web site with state-by-state polls, maps, electoral votes, etc., adding up to pretty much the same thing as BTD and other reasonably rational people. :-)

Rove is evil but he's not stupid and he clearly values his credibility as a political soothsayer enough not to want to make a fool of himself.

The less tuned in Fox anchors/hosts have kept asking him, How come the national polls are so close but you have Obama way ahead? Whereupon he patiently explains over and over again about battleground states and electoral college numbers.

if a few speak for all do we? I spoke to a few twenty somethings who work at the supermarket that are not voting. I guess that means most twenty soemthings are not voting in my entire state?

One thing that happens in every election is that as an election seem to be decided early a lot of voters just stay home because they feel it is a done deal and their one vote is not going to matter anyway. I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen this election also to some extent.

owing to the ruling just handed down by the judge re the military ballots -- they are to be "preserved," with a hearing on Nov. 10.

So if it's close countrywide, and VA matters, and if it's close in VA -- it could have to be decided in the courts.

Btw, based on some evidence discussed, it does sound like -- i.e., the ruling seems to say the judge sees grounds -- the VA voting officials screwed up in not meeting federal requirements to get absentee ballots in the mail to military on time. Whether that screwup will matter, see paragraph 2.

I was exit polled this morning. (I also happened to be exit polled during the primary). The poll was a joint poll from the nets, and cable outlets.

Here's some information on the polling, and why I think the exit polls won't be that accurate this time around, even given that they call early voters....

Met a neighbor working the polling place (she is a big Obama supporter) who told me 59% of people in our precinct who self-identified themselves as Obama supporters, voted early. I went to early vote last week - it was more than a 4 hour wait. Today, no wait at all (although she told me at 7am there was a small wait).

On my way out was a person conducting an exit poll for the Nets (NBC, ABC, CBS....). My neighbor informed me that ours was one of just three precincts in the area that was being exit polled (although I'm not clear how broad an area we're talking about, although I suspect it was either city or district wide).

Since 59% of self-described Obama supporters voted early, the exit polls coming out of here are going to be pretty unreliable. Unless of course McCain had a similar early voter turnout, which I have a hard time seeing.

People really need be very cautious of exit poll results this year. Early voting may have done away with their usefulness. Guess we'll see tonight.