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IEBC Kenya Election Results Show Close Race, May Lead To Second Round Run-Off

The IEBC Kenya election results show a close race between Kenyan rivals Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) needs to show that a single candidate has more than 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a second round run-off.

Over 10 million Kenyan are expected to vote for the Presidential election. As of 2:30 PM EST, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta is in the lead with 5,824,901 votes with about 50 percent of the vote. Mr. Raila Odinga is trailing behind with 4,788,067 votes, or around 43.3 percent. With 87 percent of constituencies declared from Monday’s vote, Uhuru Kenyatta retains a significant lead over his rival Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

“There may have been errors and discrepancies here and there. Some we have already detected and we are working on them.”

Political analysts have claimed that a Uhuru Kenyatta presidential election win would have serious implications for Kenya. Kenyatta is due to face trial at the International Criminal Court in July for crimes against humanity. He is accused of fueling the ethnic violence in which more than 1,000 people died during the aftermath of Kenya’s 2007 presidential elections. Kenyatta has rejected the charges, but the US and several European nations have warned of “consequences” if Kenyatta wins.

Clare Allenson, Africa analyst at Eurasia, a risk consultancy, says that a clear victory based upon IEBC Kenya election results would be best for the country:

“The margin of the outcome will play an integral role in the intensity of the candidates’ response and their supporters’ reaction, with a razor-thin margin likely to be more destabilizing in the immediate aftermath.”

By “destabilizing” she means that would could see a repeat of Kenya’s 2007 Presidential election, where violence killed thousand. She adds:

“If we get a full percentage point below 50 per cent it’s going to be harder for Kenyatta to contest a run-off. If he does win outright and it’s more than a percentage point it’s harder for Odinga to contest. The further away from that nail-biter, the better for stability.”

With 13 percent of the IEBC Kenya tallying election results left to go, this Presidential election is turning into a nail biter. The political party of Raila Odinga is already claiming the IEBC results have been “doctored” and they wish for voting to stop.

Are you worried that the final IEBC election results may trigger more violence in Kenya?