I'm hearing whispers that some Oiler fans believe the club made a mistake in drafting Nail Yakupov #1 overall. In times like these, it's important to remind ourselves of what the "experts" said at the time of the draft and about small sample sizes and how silly we can look in drawing short term conclusions.

I'm sure everyone has their own way of evaluating a new talent, but for Oiler fans the third #1 pick in a row should be easy to compare to......THE LAST TWO #1 OVERALL PICKS!

So, let's do that:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins year 1: 22, 10-14-24 (1.09ppg) +3

Nail Yakupov year 1: 22, 6-6-12 (.545ppg) -10

Taylor Hall year 1: 22, 5-6-11 (.500ppg) -6

In his first 22 games, RNH scored 24 points and 10 goals. Since then, he's scored 9 goals in 59 games, and that gives us a really nice reminder that (say it with me....) we shouldn't judge players--especially young players--on small sample sizes.

In regard to Nail Yakupov, here's what we can conclude from his first 22 NHL games: he's tremendously gifted, has an exceptional release, and is miles from being the player he'll become. I'm excited about watching him, and am thrilled he's doing so well, but it's clear the young man has some development in front of him and perhaps some growing up to do.

No shame in that; show me a 19-year old who is mature and never makes an error of entusiasm and I'll show you one sad, sad teenager.

TIL THEIR DYING DAY!

Yakupov scored one of the truly famous goals of the entire season against Los Angeles early on. Nail--who was born in Russia--celebrated a huge goal for the Oilers with the kind of youthful joy that makes us all kids just by watching it. If there's anyone in the adult world who thought Yakupov made that sprint on purpose--or to show up the LAK--they're crazy. Seriously.

WHERE DOES HE RANK?

Yakupov is 6th in points among rookies, tied for third in goals and ranks 10th in F time-on-ice per game. This is a marathon, not a sprint and Yakupov's season--although halfway over--promises to put him in prime offensive positions for the Oilers simply because they don't have a lot of other options who are better.

Nail Yakupov is a skilled player. Among Oiler forwards, he's already among the 6 best available (he ranks 5th in points among Oiler forwards).

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Nail Yakupov is an outstanding talent. Five years from now, maybe we'll be able to say that someone taken later in the draft turned out better, but it was a strong bet on draft day and it is a strong bet now. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise, and don't listen to anyone who talks about "soft Euro's" or "acting like an idiot" in regard to Yakupov.

He's a killer. When the tumblers click, this guy is going to kick ass from Boston to Vancouver. And his shot is going to be heard all the way to Kingston.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

Eberle is the least motivated? Eberle should have his ice time reduced? Trade Yak? That's crazy talk.
I've been a season ticket holder since 1974. You guys need to take a deep breath and relax. Clearly you can't judge talent.

Yes, all the Oilers suck and always will. Every player everywhere is better then every Oiler. They cannot improve and a rookie is a bust if his plus/minus after his first 22 games is bad. We understand you arguments they rarely change, and no one cares. Can you be done now?

Yak is 19. nuff said. I have ginch that old. He has passion and hates to lose. He has Character. He has a Stamkos like one timer, strong legs, picture him in 2-3 years AND Wants to learn, loves this city and
his team mates. Go Yak !!

Yak stays. Better yet, all of our first overall picks stay. Of the fab 5, it seems Eberle lacks the most motivation. Would it be possible to trde Hemsky now for an okay defenseman, then Eberle for a franchise D down the road? Clearly one of the kids will have to go later, and Eberle has the lowest ceiling for potential.

So Here's the Question. Choose 2 of these 3 that you are willing to keep.

Hemsky
Eberle
Yak

If there is to be balance on this line up then on of these three has to be turned into something else (eg a LW with Size, Third Line Center, Etc)

Personally I keep Eberle and Yak. What your say?

I trade Hemsky every day of the week. With the season he is having he has increased his value back up to where it should be.

I have been a Gagner supporter forever and blasted everyone that wanted to trade him for a Dman leaving Horcoff as our #2 Centre. This year he has looked gritteir, stronger, plus the points have been coming very consistantly. Finally a few people are starting to see his value.

That being said, if he continues to put up points at the rate he is on I would not shop him but I would certainly listen to offers as long as they included either a power forward and a centre prospect with size or a big young centreman. I don't think you need your centres to be big, but I do think having your only 2 centres with any offensive ability unable to win faceoffs kills you. It also makes putting Horcoff or Belanger on the ice a requirement in must score situations.

I love this kid he has heart and character not to mention a rocket of a shot. In two years when this team is good and yaks is on pace for 40 goals there will be no argument at all.

This whole team and fan base need to relax and enjoy what's in front of us even know its frustrating as he'll to watch, I don't know why but I have a feeling after they have been eliminated from the playoffs and the pressure is off they will go on a run and if not we add another blue chip prospect and move on.

Normally, I would agree that it is crazy talk. However, Eberle IS
the least motivated, or at least looks the least motivated on the ice. For example, of the kids, he is by far the least likely to lay a hit on an opponent. Then nuge. Then yak. Then hall. Secondly, he REFUSES to play defense. I have season tickets and on multiple occassions you can see Eberle cheating for offense only for it to lead to a goal. (Watch Vancouver OT loss if you don't believe me) Obviously, we are getting a small sample size right now, but Eberle doesn't deserve the ice time he is getting right now. Someone else ie) Hall, Hemsky, Yakupov, should take his postition as rightful first hand man alongside Nugent-Hopkins.

Did you feel this way last year about the way Eberle plays or has he become a bad player since then?

Theres no way oilers should trade Yakupov..he is everything this teams wanted in,terms of offence for over 15 yrs...His level of compete is awesome as well...
Keep all the kids and surround them with tenacious, hard hitting gritty powerforwards like LA and Boston have...
It starts by trading for Brian Boyle as a fourth line center between Brown and Eager...
I love Belanger on Faceoffs and PK but we need a third line center that can also hit and offer a little Nastyness...a Brandon Dubinsky type..
I would keep Paajarvi for now...but somewhere theres gotta be a big, David Lewis or Kyle Clifford/Ryane Clowe type third line winger...
Which leaves us to the top 6...Keep Gagner as he as competitive as anyone on our top six come...Love Hemskys skill but I believe he along with a pick and or prospect can be traded for someone that can crash and bang 16 minutes a night..Go find him Tambo!

On D..need one more offensive Defenceman and one solid Jason Smith type shut down guy..
Nick Schultz is ok at everything except offence..Whitney is likely gone..those two along with draft picks, prospects, and or other current oilers(not including kids of course) need to get turned into more speed, size and grit on the back end..

Why does everyone have to even acknowledge that DSF exists? He says such stupid crap its obvious he is baiting you....That dumb crap about Yaks plus/minus is so idiotic a grade 5 student could explain how warped the math is on that. SHEESH!

I still really like this pick as he brings something none of the other picks do, unbridled enthusiasm. While the others seem like they kind of expect to be there, Yak seems like he's still in awe that he's there.

I've been harping on Eberle recently. He needs to bring more in the form of energy, compete and some forecheck. I agree with you there. But, the kid is seriously talented and last game I watched him go in on the forecheck and lay a hit. Then I watched him drive hard to the net. It was nice to see. I'd bet Bordens he'll come around.

What's the basis for my argument? I've got a voodoo doll, half full can of Kokanee, a wooden hockey stick and a dime bag of oregano. That sh*t don't lie, dude.

I do also agree that Hemsky may have to go. Package him and something else for a top 4 D or a top 6 power forward and we're laughing all the way to the bank!

The Oilers were working Scott Howson to get that second selection to go along with having the first. If Howson would've taken the package the Oilers were offering, they were going to take Murray with the first pick, and Galchenyuk with that second selection. That would've left Yakupov to fall to 3 or even 4.

The actions leading up to the draft lead me to believe this is true. The Oilers publically state Murray's their guy the morning of the draft, they release their soon to be selection through the usually media puppets at their disposal sending oiler fans into a state of disbelief. Lowe wants Howson to believe his guy will be gone by the time the Jackets head to the podium, hoping to loosen Scotts grasp on that second pick.

Moments before the draft Jason Gregor (at the draft) has an opportunity to chat with Igor Larionov. Once Igor finds out he's from Edmonton, he states at a distance from Jasons booth where he's doing his radio program from (but still could be heard on the air) "Edmonton doesn't talk to me, i don't talk to Edmonton" Gregor is taken aback by Larionovs sudden dislike for Edmonton. Igor had gotten wind of what the Oilers were trying to do, letting his kid fall to 3 or even 4 in the draft.

Howson doesn't cooperate leaving the Oilers at the alter so to speak. Lowe and Tambellini remain seated at their table at the start of the draft hoping Scott Howson accepts their offer, they remain seated waiting so long they need to be reminded by the commisioner they're due up at the podium to start the proceedings. With only the first selection to be had now, that one and only selection had to be Nail Yakupov. I'd like to know where the Oilers offer fell short that afternoon. Oiler fans would've been dancing in the streets with both Galchenyuk and Murray in the fold. I'm sure if Kevin could go back he might sweeten that offer a little.

Getting to know and see Nail Yakupov has been a treat. I really hope for the Oilers sake and Yakupovs, he's an Oiler for a long long time.

I wouldn't. Yakupov will be great. Jones looks like the real deal and if we win the lottery I'd take him but I wouldn't be willing to look like an idiot if Jones pulls a Eric Johnson and I gave up Yakupov for him. I wouldn't be surprised if Yakupov ends up being the highest point getter of all our players. Give him 3-4 more years and he'll be one of the best in the league.

Offensively I think Yak is everything we hoped he would be before the draft.

Defensively he looks like a rookie.

Imagine how Hall, Nuge or Eberle would have faired without protected minutes, playing most of their minutes with 2 of Belanger, Petrell, Vandevelde or Eager.

His good minutes were with Hemsky who is very hard to play with. He is extremely hard to develop chemistry with.

I agree with the poster above I would love to see Yak and Hall on the 1st or second line. If this does not happen I would also be interested in seeing Paajarvi and Yak as wingers on either the first or second line.

If there is one player that should maybe be traded before his stock falls to much is nuge. The guy last year, to me at least, wasn't all that impressive. He played alot of shelter minutes. Plus he doesnt really have the power/ability to cotroll the pass of the game. He would bring more help by being traded for a bigger, more experienced, first line centre.

Yakupov or Galchenyuk? So, that's the argument? Or even Murray? I suppose if you compare the two forwards right now Galchenyuk could be a better pick. But, that assumption is asinine based on half of a shortened season, regardless of what the stats suggest. Not to mention a rookie season. And, maybe better line mates for Gal?
Me and my new can of beer think if you want to make a comparison to anyone that Stamkos is the better choice.

Look at both players first year and then look at.... oh, wait Yak's only played 22 career games. Must be a bust.

Both Yak and Stamkos are shooters. Shooters that score don't grow on trees and if Yak turns out to be similar to Stamkos then he was the best player available. Period.

Argue with me in two years when we have definitive results.

As for Murray. He seems to be a good D-man but he also seems more soft then abrasive. That's not what this team needs. They need a prick ala Pronger.

I miss Pronger. Hate him, but miss him like hell.

Me, my voodoo doll, now 3/4 filled can of beer, wooden hockey stick and dime bag of oregano think it's too early to tell either way, but we're very, very comfortable with the Yak selection.

I wonder if Popeye Jones even knows much about hockey. Maybe he went to Seth's games when he was a boy and just looked confused wondering wtf. I'll bet more than once he wished he was just a few inches taller.

I love this kid he has heart and character not to mention a rocket of a shot. In two years when this team is good and yaks is on pace for 40 goals there will be no argument at all.

This whole team and fan base need to relax and enjoy what's in front of us even know its frustrating as he'll to watch, I don't know why but I have a feeling after they have been eliminated from the playoffs and the pressure is off they will go on a run and if not we add another blue chip prospect and move on.

I think it is silly to talk about the core players, the problem is the philosophy of Oilers management. Lowe and Tambo have failed. They continue to draft the same player and refuse to make hard decisions to make the Oilers tougher on the puck. Since 2008 they have had this team, 3 number #1 picks and a gift of a potential #1 pick . 4 th coach in 5 years.

I love this kid he has heart and character not to mention a rocket of a shot. In two years when this team is good and yaks is on pace for 40 goals there will be no argument at all.

This whole team and fan base need to relax and enjoy what's in front of us even know its frustrating as he'll to watch, I don't know why but I have a feeling after they have been eliminated from the playoffs and the pressure is off they will go on a run and if not we add another blue chip prospect and move on.

Being able to play .500 hockey "after the pressure is off" is the sign of a team of losers.

Maybe you enjoy "what is in front of you" but, if you do, you would enjoy cheering for the Islanders.

In other news...the Toronto Maple Leafs now have odds of about 90% to make the playoffs.

It appears Burke knew what he was doing but like many team builders, won't be around to reap the accolades.