The tedium-to-suspense ratio of this clusterfark is now approaching that of a “Scooby Doo” episode. And not a good episode, either. One with Scrappy.

A Republican senator said Obama told Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, that the president’s plan would arrive on Thursday, and a Senate Democratic leadership member also said that was the approach being taken. Both sources spoke on condition of not being identified further.

The move would answer McConnell’s call for the president or Senate Democrats to make the first move in the political standoff over how to prevent or soften automatic tax hikes and spending cuts of the fiscal cliff set to take effect in the new year — just five days away…

Last Friday, Obama proposed a scaled-back agreement that included his call for extending tax cuts on households with incomes under $250,000, as well as an extension of unemployment insurance.

However, there were no immediate details available on the exact components of the measure that the sources said was headed to Congress on Thursday.

If there’s an offer in the works — and that’s a big if — why would the White House play it close to the vest? That’s the sort of thing you do when you’re serious about negotiations and want to give the other side time to huddle without having to deal with public pressure. There’s no reason for O to be serious about this until next month. Matt Yglesias is unfortunately right that his hand will get stronger, not weaker, once we go over the cliff:

Conrad wants to split the difference between the President’s last offer and Boehner’s last offer. Then once something like that difference-splitting bill passes the Senate, Boehner gets to take it up as the new baseline for negotiations and pull the ultimate resolution even further to the right.

But that’s exactly why Obama would be foolish to take any such thing seriously. Starting in the New Year, the Senate gets more liberal. The House also gets more liberal. And the policy baseline also gets more liberal. The White House isn’t going to pull the plug on negotiations, but unless Boehner comes back to the table with something new to say they have no incentive to further weakn their hand.

Why would O quietly put a credible offer on the table now when he can do a big, showy “tax hikes on everyone who makes more than $250K” take-it-or-leave it ultimatum, wait a week while the media goes to work on how this is all the GOP’s fault, and then come back to the table with even more Democrats in the Senate and the House? And remember, Boehner’s Speakership is on the line on January 3; if O’s plan insists on a relatively low bar for new tax hikes (i.e. $250,000) and Boehner brings it to the floor anyway, that may be the end of his tenure. He needs to be re-elected Speaker first, which means we’re headed over the cliff — unless Obama’s “scaled-back” plan raises the tax-hike bar enough ($500,000? $600,000) to make it kinda sorta acceptable to Boehner and centrist House Republicans. But then you get into a new issue: How far can the bar rise before liberals in the House start to walk away? Getting 30 Republicans to vote yes on a bill that raises taxes on earners over $600,000 isn’t inconceivable, but getting the entire Democratic caucus to vote yes with them might be. The tax-hike “sweet spot” here is narrow; see Nate Silver’s graph today to understand why. How hard is Obama planning to twist Democrats’ arms to get them to back a plan he has no real incentive to offer in the first place?

Just this Sunday, Politico reported that Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., has gone on record in favor of a bill that would extend tax rates for incomes below $250,000. “If we get down to the end of this year and the only choice we have is to save taxes going up on the middle class, then I would support that,” Isakson said. And Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, committed to a similar policy Friday. “One of the beauties of that bill is it wouldn’t require a vote to raise anybody’s taxes, and I think that is a major advantage,” Cornyn said of a bill that would prevent middle class tax hikes.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, is always easily bought and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., will be desperate to vote with Obama while running for a special election in a blue state. That is two more votes right there. Now Obama only needs one.

That last vote will be cast by Dick Lugar, of course. That makes 60 in the Senate, although it’s an open question whether they need even that many. McConnell hasn’t said yet whether O’s plan will be filibustered; Rand Paul, for one, has called on the GOP to let Democrats pass whatever tax hikes they want with Republicans voting “present” to keep their fingerprints off of the results. Assuming it does pass with a low-ish income bar for new taxes, that’ll bring most (or all) of the House’s Democrats onboard. The only mystery then will be whether Boehner’s prepared to hold out, a la Yglesias’s prediction, and demand an entirely new bill with a higher bar or whether he’ll say “to hell with it” and let centrist Republicans vote to push it through. My money’s on the latter — but not before January 3.

Exit question: What sort of guarantees will Boehner need to make to the GOP caucus about the fiscal cliff to survive the Speaker vote? House conservatives won’t vote for him if they expect him to cave on Obama’s tax-hike plan the day after. He’ll have to give them some sort of assurance to make it through.

House Republican leaders are bringing the House back into session on Sunday, lawmakers were told in a Thursday conference call…

“We are waiting on the Senate,” [Boehner] told lawmakers on a call restricted to the 241 lawmakers in the House Republican Conference.

My gut reaction when I saw that was that maybe there really is a scaled-back Obama plan after all and Boehner’s getting ready in case he needs to vote on it. But maybe not. One of the big GOP worries in all this is that they’ll take the blame if we head off the cliff; if the House isn’t even in session when it happens, it’ll make the media’s inevitable “Republicans aren’t serious” narrative that much easier for them. Best to have all hands on deck and prepared to act even if nothing happens.

Blowback

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Why would O quietly put a credible offer on the table now when he can do a big, showy “tax hikes on everyone who makes more than $250K” take-it-or-leave it ultimatum, wait a week while the media goes to work on how this is all the GOP’s fault, and then come back to the table with even more Democrats in the Senate and the House?

He won’t. Zero must be bored in Hawaii. He’s just doing this to add one more swat at the GOP. He and the other socialists won’t be satisfied until the GOP is utterly crushed. Bonehead and company are helping that destruction along.

So I guess the Republicans goal is to make Obama a hero. He cuts his vacation short, offers up a bill, Republicans abstain or get just enough Republican votes to pass Obama’s bill. The Bush tax cuts now becomes the Obama middle class tax cuts.

If Obama throws a bunch of stimulus, UE extensions, student debt forgiveness, whatever into the bill, the Republicans will let it through anyway, so long as they don’t have to go on record as voting for it. The end result is something much, much worse than Plan B, but hey, they didn’t vote for it.

The country is gonna be screwed no matter what so could we just do this cliff thing. It’s got everything Obama wants. Tax increases and spending cuts. I am not thrilled with paying more taxes but at least there will be people paying taxes that are getting a free ride at this point.

So I guess the Republicans goal is to make Obama a hero. He cuts his vacation short, offers up a bill, Republicans abstain or get just enough Republican votes to pass Obama’s bill. The Bush tax cuts now becomes the Obama middle class tax cuts.

GCM on December 27, 2012 at 3:11 PM

That’s where I think this is going. Who wants to bet Boehner managed to twist enough arms to get the House Republicans to vote for whatever Obama throws on the table? Obama wouldn’t be coming home unless Boehner was going to give him a big victory.

Because he is afraid of Bonehead Boehner losing his position as speaker of the house. Obama knows that a large segment of the GOP is 100 percent on board with the Let it Burn concept. He knows that he can blame the GOP in the short term, but that is all he can do.
Once over the cliff and when things start getting really ugly, there will be no memory of the GOP, only Obama’s ownership of the economy.

And you thought the ‘ball drop’ at Time square at midnight was a bang, just wait till those worthless slugs in dc give us their ‘bang’ on what they are going to do to us? The last minute get together by that bunch always ends up horrible for the US!

A major BOHICA is coming and we don’t get a nice meal or flowers with it!
L

If this article The Myth of Fingerprints by Ramesh is correct and House Republicans are more concerned about whether they vote for higher taxes than if taxes actually go higher, then I say pass two bills:

1. Maintain tax cuts for those under $250k
2. Maintain tax cuts for those over $250k

The Senate/Obama will pass the first, but not the second. The end effect is the same as passing the Senate/Obama bill, but at least you can claim you passed the middle class tax cuts and can blame any economic problems on Obama vetoing the second bill.

I just watched Lord of the Rings. This reminds me of when the dwarf, er, midget, er, abnormally small person said, “Not much chance of success, and almost certain death? What are we waiting for?” Just get it over with, so we can move on to the next CRISIS!!!, and the next battle in which Republicans are going to really be tough, really!

They waited until there is literally no time to debate any spending cuts and cried doom so much about the fiscal cliff that the only considerations now are how much taxes go up and how much we extend the debt ceiling. That’s awesome goal post movement. And the public blames GOP. I only see one choice.

What kind of weak stunt is it to re-convene the House on a Sunday, so there’s just 24hrs to consider and coerce a vote so all can go home for New Year’s Eve?? Just for the new session to start 4 days later?

On the money! Boehner has no clue and could easily control his end, but has abrogated his responsibility as Speaker and let the WH dictate terms….ass backwards! The Senate, that hasn’t passed a budget in 4-years is AWOL as usual.What a CF! Reap what you sow taxpayers!

Someone needs to dredge up that exchange with Romney when Romney said the fiscal cliff was an example of how Obama could not reach across the aisle, and Obama swore, promised, crossed his heart, that we would not, under any circumstances go over the cliff.

untill the spending is cut taxes will be raised. the more you raISE TAXES THE MORE THE ECONOMY GOES IN THE HOLE.. we are now entering the final phase of total economic destruction. higher taxes less rev more spending to cover over the economic realities. untik the total house of cards fails. Pray that the $ doesn’t lose its status as the world currency. If that happens we will become a 3rd world nation overnight.
this is how empires die.

The best things that could possibly happen for this country in the very near future would be to go over the cliff, and for Boehner to be replaced by a Republican with a spine and ‘balls’, regardless of the gender of the new Speaker.

The House needs to simply flip Obama/Reid/media the bird, pass a bill that addresses tax rate cuts for everyone and very, very dramatic spending cuts, along with promises to not fund anything the Dems want for the foreseeable future, send it over for them to sign it. If they don’t sign it, then it is *they* who will have allowed taxes to increase on everyone, etc.

If there’s an offer in the works — and that’s a big if — why would the White House play it close to the vest? That’s the sort of thing you do when you’re serious about negotiations and want to give the other side time to huddle without having to deal with public pressure. There’s no reason for O to be serious about this until next month. Matt Yglesias is unfortunately right that his hand will get stronger, not weaker, once we go over the cliff:

When you get to the point where you accept Matt Yglesias’s analysis of anything, you might as well pack it in.

Again, all Boehner has to do to keep the speakership is make a deal where he releases enough Republican votes to pass the Dem plan, and Pelosi releases enough votes to give Boehner the speakership. His position is much stronger than people think.

The President and the Democratic leadership don’t want to go over the cliff. It would be a disaster for them, no matter what the polls say. The elephant in the room is the debt ceiling. We hit it on Monday, and if that is not dealt with along with the tax cuts and the sequester, everyone has big problems, including Obama.

The only people with exactly zero leverage and zero options are House conservatives, who relegated themselves to the back bench with their stupid intransigence over Plan B.

A deal will be done, a deal that is less palatable to conservatives because of their amateur night theatrics last week.

If it’s as convoluted as it sounds on Wikipedia, I think I’ll pass! Following this stupidity is already starting to make my eyes glaze over. I don’t believe there is a political solution to the problems we face, at least not one anyone in DC has the guts to pursue.

One of the big GOP worries in all this is that they’ll take the blame if we head off the cliff;

The MSM are going to ensure the GOP takes the blame anyway, how many times do we have to say this. Vote “present”, let the Dems own it. Eventually the takers that voted obama back into office will feel the pain and maybe wake up to their mistake. What’s that saying “When you’re young and Republican, you don’t have a heart; when you’re old and a Democrat, you’re stupid”. When the one’s that voted obama back into office realize it was the dem’s all along that caused this, they’ll turn from young Democrat’s to older Republicans. Might as well start that conversion now.

not sure its just Iran more like the enemies of the USA Russia, china Iran, Obama admin.

And I’m not sure I can blame them. for too long the people in Dc assumed we would always have the $ as thwe world currency and have used that power unwisely. Going $16 trillion in debt, printing money out of thin air. Maybe the people of the USA need economic reality to sink in. I don’t kinow all I do know is this isn’t sustainablew and our kids will suffer whatever happens. Sad day for what was the greatest nation the world has ever seen. We screwed it all up and now only GOd can save us.

The only people with exactly zero leverage and zero options are House conservatives, who relegated themselves to the back bench with their stupid intransigence over Plan B.

Mr. Arkadin on December 27, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Why is it that so-called GOP “moderates” hate conservatives more than Democrats?

A classic example is Mr. Arkadin as evidenced in his comment.

Does it surprise anyone that his proposal for Boehner to keep his Speakership is as follows:

Again, all Boehner has to do to keep the speakership is make a deal where he releases enough Republican votes to pass the Dem plan, and Pelosi releases enough votes to give Boehner the speakership. His position is much stronger than people think.

I guess the “icky” fact that Plan B and any such plan passed with votes from Pelosi and Boehner will do nothing to stop our march into the real fiscal apocalypse… means absolutely nothing to Mr. Arkadin.

It’s a shame to see how this blog has now been turned into a complete joke by the few commenters leftover from the Nov 6th beat down.

While I may have disagreed with most of the folks who posted prior to the election, quite a few of them made some sense. Since election day, all you see here are childish comments to relatively well written articles by the HA staff. So sad.

It’s a shame to see how this blog has now been turned into a complete joke by the few commenters leftover from the Nov 6th beat down.

While I may have disagreed with most of the folks who posted prior to the election, quite a few of them made some sense. Since election day, all you see here are childish comments to relatively well written articles by the HA staff. So sad.

HotAirLib on December 27, 2012 at 4:43 PM

What’s sad? That you’re realizing you’re supporting the most fiscally reckless administration in American history, or that you’re about to get the bill for it?

Since election day, all you see here are childish comments to relatively well written articles by the HA staff. So sad.

HotAirLib on December 27, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Hey, Election Day saw a combination of greedy stupid parasites such as you and not a little bit of corruption at the polling places. The right has every right to be pissed off that you moochers who contribute nothing to the world were able to get the free ride extended another four years.

Nevermind the generational theft you support. Nevermind the economy about to tank. You’re still getting free stuff and expecting others to pay. I hate all of you greedy selfish takers. I don’t understand why you hate America and the Constitution and I really don’t care. You have to matter for that to be much of an issue.

But here’s the dirty secret you troll- sooner or later they are going to be going out after your “stuff.” Your kids will be stuck with the debt incurred by your greed. You can go to hell you worthless moocher. People like you aren’t entitled to have a say in this society because you contribute nothing.

…unless Obama’s “scaled-back” plan raises the tax-hike bar enough ($500,000? $600,000) to make it kinda sorta acceptable to Boehner and centrist House Republicans….
by Allahpundit

Well that is exactly what’s gonna happen.
This is really only and soley about upper income tax rates for the GOP.
They’d give the whole store away on that one issue that they view as the only ‘win/lose’ card in the deck.
They’ve become – have been for a while now, really – a single issue party. Obama will throw them enough of a bone for enough of them to chew on.

The ONLY reason for Boehner to convene the House on Sunday is to vote for a MASSIVE SPENDING BILL that no one will read until AFTER it has passed. This bill will include MANY pork projects for those SPECIAL congressional districts that Boehner needs to get votes, the entire ‘storm relief package’, and the new ‘stimulus’ spending Obama wants. The creation of a new ‘infrastructure bank’ that is never discussed is extremely likely.

Look for a MULTI-TRILLION dollar debt ceiling increase to cover all of the overspending Obama has planned for 2013 AND 2014. This will be large enough to last until AFTER the 2014 elections!

It is highly likely that there will also be a continueing resolution to complete the 2013 fiscal spending which ends in September.

Now, if that CR is dated through the 2014 fiscal year (by some unnoticed mistake), then even IF Boehner is removed as speaker, the House will be in a lame duck session until AFTER the 2014 elections!

The problem, of course, is that the Tea Party’s power resides in Republican primaries, where conservative purists wreaked considerable havoc in the past two election cycles. This included, famously, McConnell’s home state of Kentucky, where the minority leader’s protégé was crushed in a 2010 GOP Senate primary by Rand Paul. Now McConnell has to worry about suffering a similar fate in two years, especially if his handling of the current fiscal impasse evokes cries of treason from the base. How could this square with claims of fading clout for the Tea Party?

But, unless Boehner pulls a mighty and glorious smack-down of Obama over the weekend…his days as Speaker are indeed numbered.

coldwarrior on December 27, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I have no problem with that. I think that perhaps part of the post-election reorganization should be new leadership in the House. Boehner attempted to cut a deal with the devil without any communication with his fellow Republicans. That’s not leadership.

All of this is more than enough to instill real fear in Republicans on Capitol Hill who aren’t true believers – but who do like their jobs and want to keep them. McConnell falls in this category. Boehner evidently does too. And so do many, many other Republicans who don’t want to look back and regret the day they cast a vote that ended their careers. The fact that the Tea Party, as a literal entity, seems to be dying is actually a sign of how successful it’s been. Its spirit now rules the Republican Party.

Just wait till America finds out what’s in Obamacare and the new tax rates.

PattyJ on December 27, 2012 at 5:17 PM

That is the only problem I have with the LiB plan. I want those idiots who voted for Obama to be able to tell the tax increase involved in the cliff from all the new taxes that are part of Obamacare and all the new regulatory fees they will be paying.

Why would O quietly put a credible offer on the table now when he can do a big, showy “tax hikes on everyone who makes more than $250K” take-it-or-leave it ultimatum, wait a week while the media goes to work on how this is all the GOP’s fault, and then come back to the table with even more Democrats in the Senate and the House?

Seriously, who cares?

If electoral college votes had been awarded based upon the vote in the Congressional districts, Romney would have won. In short, when Congress comes back, there will be more than 218 Republican House members where Romney won in their district.

It’s two years until they have to got in front of the voters again, but it’s less than that before they have to face Republican voters in a Primary.

Obama can shoot of his mouth all he wants. But at some point he’s going to want the debt limit raised, and he’s going to want a budget passed, and he can’t do that until 218 members of Congress vote to do it.

Unless the Democrats want to go two years with a balanced budget, they’re going to have to negotiate w/ the Republicans, as long as the Republicans are more afraid of their Primary voters than they are of the press.

It’s two years until they have to got in front of the voters again, but it’s less than that before they have to face Republican voters in a Primary.

Greg Q on December 27, 2012 at 5:27 PM

This. An awful lot can change in 2 years. All of ObamaCare will be active before the 2014 election. Between seniors getting their Medicare slashed and the vast majority of already-insured America getting rate hikes, there’s going to be alot of unhappy people between now and then. That’s 100% on Democrat hands.

Plus if Democrats are stupid enough to try to ban guns again, let alone handguns, 2014 will be a wipeout.

This is becoming absolutely disgusting . . . Obama and all the rest of those politicos are nothing but self serving, whiny pukes and they’re playing games at the people’s expense. How long are we going to put up with this crap?