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DSN: CC36.CENSUS.POSTCEN.Y9092.DEMODETL
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ABSTRACT
METHODOLOGY FOR 1991 AND 1992 AGE-RACE-SEX COUNTY ESTIMATES
Introduction
The 1991 and 1992 county estimates are based on the 1990
census counts, as modified by the Census bureau in its MARS file.
The estimates provide data for the White, Black, Indian, and Asian
populations, by sex, for 5-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, etc.
to 85+). An additional project provides similar data for Spanish.
The race modification carried out by the Census Bureau in the
MARS file assigned those persons who did not indicate a specific
race on their census form (approximately 9.8 million) to White,
Black, Indian, or Asian. Most of these persons were of Spanish
heritage, and were assigned chiefly to the White population. The
Bureau also modified the age distributions, most notably for the
population under 5 years of age.
Estimation Procedure
1. Race estimates (White, Black, and Other) for each county
in 1990 were obtained by bringing the 1980 census figures
forward with data on births, deaths, and estimated migration
(internal and international). By controlling these estimates to
1990 census data, migration estimates for the decade consistent
with both the 1980 and 1990 censuses were obtained.
2. Projections of births and deaths by race for 1990-95 were
prepared. The projections were controlled to agree with the
Census Bureau's national birth projections, middle series, in
Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No.1092.
3. Population projections by race to 1995 were prepared using
the 1980-90 migration rates. The projections were controlled to
agree with the Bureau's national population projections, and to be
consistent with their 1991 estimates of the total population of
each county. The Asian population was estimated as a proportion
of the "Other" races, the residual being American Indians.
4. The age and sex distribution in 1995 for each county was
obtained using Demo-Detail's Alternative procedure as described in
professional paper "A Preliminary Comparison of Demo-Detail's
County Estimates by Age and Sex with the 1990 Census", presented
at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association,
October 1991, available on request.
The estimates for 1990, 1991 and 1992 (July 1) were obtained by
interpolation between the data for April 1, 1990 and July 1, 1995,
controlling them to the Bureau's national estimates by age, sex and
race in Series P-25, No.1104, and to their 1991 estimates of the total
population of each county. This produced the final estimates for White,
Black, Indian and Asian, by age and sex.