What If... The league winner had to release their squad.

After their fifth Serie A title in a row, the Italian FA have had enough of Juventus winning it all. The dissatisfaction extends to all the top teams, with the majority of recent titles going to the Turin side, or the two Milan teams. With the American model of rewarding the worst teams in mind, drastic measures are introduced to shake things up. From next season, any team that wins the league will have to release all squad players.

Just a quick note to say this is part of a series I've been posting in several places, but mainly here. It contains pictures and slightly nicer formatting, but the contents all the same, so don't feel you have to head there to read it all.

Ok so I know Juventus don't actually win everything. But with 5 championships in a row, and probably the strongest setup to add more, it's not inconceivable that they'll take 10 in a row. I have no personal issues with Juventus (honest!) I needed some story and some focus with which to do this experiment.

So what's actually happening? Well, in short, when a team wins the league, I'll use the in-game editor to remove every player above £1m value, or with 10+ appearances in the league in the winning season. I considered doing the whole squad, but there's way too many players and I have to do them individually. Still, with the important squad members gone, that should be enough to hurt any team.

Shall we get into it then? Will the big teams be able to rebuild squads quickly enough to continue the domination? Or will new challengers step up to win the league in the confusion? But most importantly, will Juventus get relegated? Time to find out...

2016/17

League Winner: JuventusCup Winner: JuventusJuventus' Position: 1st

Unsurprisingly Juventus take the first season. Which is exactly the reason why this experiment is happening. It's close though, as AC Milan finish 3 points off in second place. A cup win, also against AC Milan, further makes the statement that the Turin side need to be knocked down a peg.

So with that we arrive at first round of departures! Leicester, PSG and Monaco go crazy with free transfers. The Parisian side bring Dybala and Alex Sandro into their midst, whilst their rivals snap up Bonucci and Khedira.
Leicester somehow convince Asamoah, Rugani and Pjanic to join, despite only being in the Europa League. What. Kingsley Coman finds himself in Burnley, which I'm sure is not where he'd hope his career would end up. But the saddest news goes to Buffon. The veteran finds no takers for his immense ability and opts to go out with a fizzle, retiring from the game.

And who do the Italian giants choose to bring in to replace all that talent? Well... Diafra Sakho, Victor Moses and Andrew Wisdom... It's going to be a tough season ahead, I can say that much.

Nothing much to report in Europe. In the Champions League Juventus make it to the semi-finals thanks to a hard-fought win over Leicester. There, they fall to Atletico Madrid. Sassuolo make it the furthest in the Europa League, making it to the second knockout round.

2017/18

League Winner: NapoliCup Winner: Inter MilanJuventus' Position: 13th

With the current holders gutted, there's space for someone else to step up. That someone is Napoli, who manage to hold of Inter Milan and Roma for the title. I'm sure the parties are plentiful but will be short lived when they remember what's to come. Having had everything they own stolen, Juventus finish a lowly 13th. It's not awful but will kick their reputation a little not being in Europe.

Napoli somehow manage to keep hold of Raul Albiol, as he falls under the £1M valuation line. Reina also sits at £450K value, but he still gets the boot thanks to his 34 league appearances this season. None of Napoli's newly freed players particularly go anywhere, with Hysaj taking the only high-profile transfer to Real Madrid. The rest head to middling Premier League teams or head to a cash club to end their career.

The signed players prove to be just as disappointing. They spend £10.5M on players, with the biggest signing being Mario Pasalic. Napoli could struggle way more than Juventus did.

2018 also means we get our first World Cup. And Gareth Southgate getting his first chance to prove his worth. Doesn't he do it perfectly, somehow managing to finish behind Slovakia, Slovenia and Scotland in qualifying. Great job Gareth. The shocks continue as Italy lose all group games (including Australia and Ghana), whilst Australia beat Spain in the first knockout round. Argentina make it to the final to try and correct their hurt, but fall short once again at the hands of France.

2018/19

League Winner: RomaCup Winner: EmpoliJuventus' Position: 5th

Roma are the next on the cursed throne, holding off Inter Milan and Lazio for the title. Empoli winning the cup may be a sign of things slowly falling to the weaker teams, but it's tough to tell at this stage. Juventus have climbed back into Europe with a 5th place, but Napoli fall to a lowly 17th. They escape relegation by 4 points, so I may have killed them.

Stoke and West Ham are the two making the most of the free talent available. El Shaarawy, Manolas and Sisto sign up for extra rainy nights, whilst Strootman and Nainggolan opt for the more comfy London Stadium.

Further afield, Real Sociedad clinch an impressive 2nd place in La Liga, and Leverkusen stop Bayern winning their 7th league in a row. In the Champions League Atletico take the trophy to claim Spain's 6th win in a row. It's almost unfair.

Next up: AC Milan. It's in an incredibly tight season, with the top 10 separated by 8 points. It's also a low points season as Milan earn 68 points on the way to winning. The worrying part though is Juventus in 2nd and Napoli in 4th. It seems to take two seasons for them to recover at this point. Previous champions Roma do an OK job in 13th.

West Ham continue their free agent spree, this time taking in talented youngsters Alexander Isak and Marco Asensio, as well as Bonaventura. It's a little surprising they're not doing better in the Premier League. Munir and Diawara head to Watford, with Berardi choosing Schalke.

Transfers in seems to be a problem area for most teams, as no one of real note signs. Matarese is the biggest entrant in the £17M spending spree.

Euro 2020 and England do significantly better. They make it to the semi-finals before familiar enemy Portugal destroy all English hope again. It's not another title for Portugal though, as they lose out 1-0 to Germany in the final. Italy fall in the first knockout round, so still an under-performance from them.

5 years, 5 different winners. So far so good. Inter sit in the top spot, walking to an easy 11 point victory. Behind them, it's Juventus once again, so it's only a matter of time before they become the first team to win it twice. Spezia, Chievo and Torino all manage top 7 finishes, whilst Milan sink to 15th.

The exodus at Inter sees the usual raiding by mid-table English clubs. There are a few big names though. James Rodriguez goes back to Monaco having signed on a free. England's elite grab Zielinski (Arsenal) and Borja (Man City).

They do bring in the best player in the world, Pele. Oh wait no it's a 30-year-old Portuguese guy from Shakhtar. No signings to be excited about then.

Koln win the Europa League. Hooray! Big news that.

2021/22

League Winner: JuventusCup Winner: SassuoloJuventus' Position: 1st

Damn. It. Ok so Juventus aren't broken, not even close as they beat Chievo by 10 points for the crown. But I'm not done there, I'm going to gut them again and see if it has more of a lasting effect. Inter meanwhile come 12th.

The outgoings are a little bit weaker than last time. Munir once again finds himself heading to the depths of England, opting for "City of Culture" Hull. Few players are staying in Italy when released, which is why I think this might eventually do something.

Unlike every other team before them, Juventus are able to spend £40M rebuilding, bringing in the likes of Markovic and Mosti. Taking them down is just making things equal ok.

World Cup time once again, and it's Spain who suffer the most. They end up in a group with Argentina and France, falling as the unlucky loser. That's not even the group of death, as Ivory Coast, Mexico, Colombia and Belgium proves way more equal. The final goes down to Holland and Italy, with the Italians winning 2-1 for yet another title. Who said they were falling apart?

2022/23

League Winner: TorinoCup Winner: Sampdoria
Juventus' Position: 16th

So close yet so far. Juventus finish in a lowly 16th, but it's still 14 points clear of relegation as Udinese, Cagliari and Salernitana have particularly bad seasons. This isn't all out war on Juventus, honest. Up front, Torino take a dominating title, but as a "non-big" team, I'm a little sad to have to empty them of all they have.

With a distinct lack of quality compared to the usual departures, the destinations of Torino's players is a bit more varied. Russia, France and China prove to be popular. Investment is a little more than some others, with £20M worth of regen players being brought in.

A little later than it'll probably happen in real life, but Real Madrid become the first team ever to retain the Champions League in its modern format. They beat Chelsea 2-1 in the final to set the record.

2023/24

League Winner: NapoliCup Winner: Fiorentina
Juventus' Position: 11th

Napoli become the second two-time winner in the league, making me seriously doubt if this is actually working. Sampdoria and Chievo have risen to the top though, so perhaps they can mix things up. Juventus have climbed slowly back to 11th, which is a sign of things being tougher for them. Meanwhile Torino were well beaten by losing everyone, coming dead last with 22 points.

Some firsts come with Napoli being emptied. Firstly most of the players stay in Italy, which hasn't happen before. Secondly, Napoli invest £4.6M in new players. The lowest since this began. I don't think that's a good thing.
In the league coefficient the yoyo-ing of teams has taken its toll. Italy have a few average seasons and all of a sudden they find themselves 5th behind France. It doesn't lose them much, but it's the start of something.

Italy build on their World Cup success by going out at the second knockout round of Euro 2024. To be fair they do get beaten by eventual winners Holland, as the Dutch beat England 2-0 in the final.

We're going in some sort of loop, and now it's the turn of Inter to claim their second title. AC Milan and Roma will probably be sometime soon. Interestingly Inter fail to obtain a UEFA license, and as such miss out on the Champions League. Napoli get relegated, so the punishment is becoming more severe as time goes on.

Fenerbahce, Besiktas and the general vicinity of Germany are the chosen destinations of the Inter lot. Leandrinho is the biggest name, and he makes his way over to Shanghai SIPG to cash in for a few years. On the incoming side it's £4M spent once again, so a clear underlining of the decline.

In Spain, Sevilla win La Liga, which is the first time in a long while either Barcelona, Atletico or Real Madrid hasn't won it.

2025/26

League Winner: RomaCup Winner: Roma
Juventus' Position: 6th
Yup called it. Roma it is. AC Milan finish a very close second, so I expect they'll complete the cycle next time round. Juventus seem to be halted, finishing 6th once again. If they're climbing back to the top it's certainly slower. Meanwhile in 20th, Internazionale. Even Pescara finish above them, which has got to hurt. In Serie B Napoli finish a lowly 13th, so they're officially gone.

Espanyol and Lazio clearly had some holes in their teams, as they recruit 4 and 3 players respectively. Roma meanwhile set a new record for lowest spent rebuilding their team, at £1.1M. That might well put them last like the two before.

Italy get a chance to improve on their Euro performance and defend their thone in the next edition of the World Cup. It falls apart as England take their revenge for Euro 2012, knocking the Italians out in the first knockout round. France take the top spot for the second time in three tournaments, albeit the hard way. They fight their way through Holland, Argentina, Brazil and then Spain in the final to take a well-earned trophy. Interestingly 3 out of those 4 games were won on penalties, including the final after a 4-4 thriller.

2026/27

League Winner: LazioCup Winner: Fiorentina
Juventus' Position: 6th
Well I was wrong. Lazio and Fiorentina step up their claim for a first trophy in this, but it's Lazio who come out victorious thanks to the vs record between the pair. Roma finish last, and Juventus claim their customary 6th place. Win god dammit, I want to ruin you more!

Mid table French or German sides are the trendy destination this year, whilst a 34-year-old Milik chooses sunny Las Palmas. The biggest surprise though would be Burnley somehow landing a £44M rated winger. I can't imagine Burnley quite compares to Rome. A £5M investment in new players is a decent effort by the Lazio board, so they could well do better than some of the previous attempts.

The Italian teams have sunk quite low in reputation terms now. Juventus are on par with Everton, whilst Milan sit at the top with a similar reputation to Freiburg. It's a little off the starting values of 8000+ to say the least.

2027/28

League Winner: AC MilanCup Winner: AC Milan
Juventus' Position: 14th

There we go, that's the winner I was expecting. AC Milan finally take the title that was coming and then brace themselves for a season of heavy relegation. Lazio keep up their end of the deal by getting relegated in last, despite the luxurious £5M squad. Juventus meanwhile drop to 14th. It's safe to say their domination is over, but they may have even dropped away from being a top team.

Whilst the outgoings are normal, the biggest surprise is the £29M investment in a new team. No team has invested that in much in a long time, so it's pretty clear Milan are the top Italian team by far.

Germany has taken up a spot as the very best in Europe, as an all-German final between Dortmund and Bayern gives Dortmund the Champions League trophy. If you're wondering how the Italians are performing in the continental competitions, they're battling for the occasional knockout round performance. A deep run at this point is a big surprise.

France have become the international team to beat, as they cruise to another final, beating Italy along the way. This time it's against unlikely challengers Serbia, and we miss out on a shock winner as France brush them aside 2-0. With the talent they've got, it's not overly surprising.

An amazing recovery from Inter sees them become the first team with three Serie A wins. Milan also recover pretty swiftly from their kicking, as they only sink to 9th. Although the amount of money they pumped back in is probably the reason for that. Juventus are still hovering around mid-table, but they're now outclassed by the likes of Bari, who have become European contenders.

The Italians seem to have caught on with what's going on (finally), and now the majority of released players are going to teams like Spezia and Chievo. Teams that could mount a challenge in the current circumstances, but don't have enough reputation to get the names in. Like their Milan rivals, Inter also spend £20M recruiting players. Clearly the Milan pair had more cash hidden away than the likes of Juventus.

Over in Spain, there's more excitement as Real Madrid smash the record for points in a season. They concede just 21 goals and lose 3 times on the way to 105 points. They might go unbeaten if they're not careful.

2029/30

League Winner: NapoliCup Winner: Palermo
Juventus' Position: 8th

Like Inter, Napoli claim the title off the back of an impressive recovery from their relegation. Inter meanwhile drop to 15th, so clearly if you spend over £20M you can build enough to survive. Juventus break back into the top 10, whilst Milan have taken two years to recover up to 3rd. They're looking good for their third next year. Which naturally, I'm super pleased/annoyed about.

Napoli are unable to compete with the Milan pair, investing £3.3M in a new squad. PSV are nice enough to provide a couple of loans to help out, but even then they barely scrape a squad together. The chosen flavour this year for those leaving is France with a hint of Greece.

World Cup 2030 and it's almost unfair how good France have become. There's no suspense as France claim their second title in a row, only the third nation to do so after Brazil and Italy. Italy do have the joy of beating Australia 7-0 in the first knockout round but lose to the French in the semis. England predictably lose to Germany.

So...

So it's 2030. Juventus have become a solidly mid-table side. The Italian coefficient has levelled out with the league in 5th place. League winners aren't exactly falling under the "shocking" as category I'd hoped. Let's move things on a little bit quicker to see if anything actually exciting happens.

2030-35

Two first time titles, as Empoli and Palermo top Serie A for the first time ever. Empoli recover incredibly quickly, taking another one in quick succession. The other two go to more seasoned winners Internazionale and Sampdoria. Surprisingly it's the experienced teams that suffer. Sampdoria get relegated immediately and Inter manage to stay up for a season before joining Sampdoria. Empoli and Palermo manage to stay afloat. Napoli also get relegated, off the back of their win in 2029, but recover back to be best 3 in Serie A.

Juventus continue their completely average streak. To the point where I'm unsure if I'll be able to affect them again. Spezia have become far more interesting, as they win the Italian cup in the same year as getting relegated. They crash heavily in the Europa League group stages, but the highs of Olympique Lyonnais and the lows of Matera is a real interesting mix.

In the rest of Europe, several streaks are broken and records set. Both Manchester United and Real Madrid fall short of an 8th title in a row, as Manchester City and Barcelona step in to stop things getting too boring. In doing so, Manchester City take their fourth Champions League in a row, only losing out on the fifth thanks to Barcelona. The level of domination around is ridiculous. Over in Germany, everyone's favourite club Red... RasenBallsport Leipzig win the Bundesliga for the first time ever and now sit as one of the top 10 clubs in the world.

Two surprises for the European teams at the national level. The first comes with England actually winning something at Euro 2032. They topple heavy favourites France on the way to a final, where they hand a 3-0 beating out to the Dutch. But even that pales in comparison to the result of World Cup 2034. Italy cruise through to the final, where they come up against surprise package Switzerland. A tight match sees the Swiss come out on top, and the whole country goes mild with sensibly neutral partying galore.

2035-40

Sassuolo become the most dominant team of the era, at least in Italy. Having taken three 2nd places in a row, as well as a couple of cups, they finally win the main prize. They do so in impressive style, with a 17 point win too. From there it's downhill, as they find themselves unable to recover from losing everyone and earn an immediate relegation. Torino and Napoli also win and suffer a similar fate. AC Milan and Empoli (from 2034-35) survive after their wins, but the biggest news is Juventus end the decade as league champions. Another shot at breaking their squad completely. Spezia achieve an impressive 2nd place, so it may not be long before they earn a title of their own.

Serie A finally falls down to 6th in the coefficient, as some weak performances see Portugal able to jump ahead of them. At this point it's quite rare to see an Italian side past the first knockout round, and teams falling in qualifying is exceptionally common.

A few more shocks in national football, although less noteworthy than a Swiss world title. Norway make a remarkable run to the final of Euro 2036, whilst Ecuador see an impressive World Cup run ended in the semi-finals in 2038. Both fall at the hands of Belgium, although the Belgians are only able to walk away with the Euro trophy. Germany grab a World Cup and then stroll through Euro 2040 to add another trophy to their cabinet.

2040-45

Of the five titles on offer, two go to Internazionale. Milan and Juventus take yet another each, whilst Fiorentina win their first of the experiment. After 2039-40, I'd hoped I could break Juventus, but they easily survive. The same holds true for the rest of the league winners. It seems things have reached a point where the top teams can comfortably survive.

The top clubs are still able to spend some £10M on incomings, raiding those flirting with promotion into Serie A. Outgoings also haven't changed much, with the usual destinations of France, England and Germany remaining popular. In terms of reputation, Juventus have settled at around 6500, and don't seem to be shifting either way anymore.

In the league coefficient, things get even worse. Belgium and Turkey finally catch up with the Italian league, as I thought they might. In just one season they drop from 2 group stage spots in the Champions League to 2 spots total. To make it worse, things are very tight around that part of the coefficient, so it may not be easy earning those spots back.

One World Cup to report of, and it's much more positive as far as the Italians are concerned. Serbia make a surprise run to the final, but are stopped short on penalties as Italy claims a record 6th title. Euro 2044 goes to France, who manage to conquer world beaters Switzerland.

2045-50

Roma grab a title and then manage to recover very quickly to win a second. Fiorentina and Atalanta also take one each, but I'm most pleased about Spezia finally winning the whole thing. It does immediately earn them a relegation with an awful total of 13 points, but silverware is always fun. Juventus don't claim another title but are close, so the end point of this experiment will be their next win.

Lazio become the first ex-champion to drop to the Lega Pro. Considering they won the back in 2027 it's fair to say I didn't cause it. But it is a landmark. Sampdoria also get mighty close, having failed to revive themselves after the relegation in 2035.

More coefficient action, but this time it's good news. Turkey and Belgium drop off sharply, giving Italy 6th place back. Add to that some consistent 12 point performances, and it seems they started to stabilise themselves around the same place as the Portuguese league.

World Cups 2046 and 2050 go back to the routine French domination that we've been seeing through this experiment. They crush English dreams in extra time in the 2046 edition, before getting well beaten 4-1 by Spain in the 2050 version. Still, 1 out of 2 finals isn't bad. Or a title. At all. Since 1966...

2050-52

I said I'd run it until their next title, annnnnnd Juventus claim the very next one available. They get the customary clearing out and this time it's make or break. If this doesn't work, experiment over. It's a slow start to the season and they finish... 8th.

They even manage to claim the Cup, the first team to do so on the back of winning the league. So I guess it really is experiment over.

The result?

Well, I'm going to have to say that this failed. I mean the results were more varied than real life, but for the most part the bigger clubs stayed at the top. Empoli, Sassuolo and Spezia made the best of circumstances, but there wasn't the wild variety of winners I'd hoped for. Plus Juventus didn't get relegated once, and neither did AC Milan so there's no way I could class it as anything other than a failure.

I guess it's not surprising when you think about it. The difference in finances and reputation between teams like Juventus and Spezia is huge. The stronger teams have enough in the bank to rebuild their squads and continually raid the lower leagues. The weaker teams are never going to climb to the point where they're top of the world because as soon as they get close, they're stripped of everything too. And they don't have the anywhere near the same resources to recover with. So I can't say I'm surprised things turned out as they did.

The state of the world

England
London takes the lead early on, but it's all Manchester after that. From 2019/20 to 2049/50, every single title goes either to Man united or Man City. United dominate the 20's and 40's, with City taking the 30's. Chelsea are the team to finally break that run, having spent the entire time behind the pair.

Spain
A surprise early domination for Atletico, before Real Madrid win all but three titles between 2023/24 and 2039/40. From there Sevilla dominate the 40's, whilst Barcelona do very little throughout. Real Sociedad manage a reasonable amount of top 3 finishes but never sit in first.

Germany
Bayern dominate almost completely, including taking 9 titles in a row. From 2044 Dortmund finally step up and take over, winning 6 in a row. RB Leipzig also turn up, pushing Bayern down to 3rd. They even win their first three titles. Schalke are fourth best throughout.

France/Portugal
It's a tale of two trios as both weren't loaded. France has PSG win in all but one seasons, with Monaco and Lyon fighting for 2nd. Benfica dominate Portugal, leaving Porto and Sporting in 2nd.

Europe
Real Madrid win three in a row early on, before Man City trump that with 4 in a row just after. From there, it's Man City, Sevilla, Dortmund and RB Leipzig who are top almost every year. No real surprises. Koln grab 2 Europa Leagues, whilst Espanyol and Freiburg take one each. They're the only real surprises though.

International
I've covered the World Cups and Euro's before so let's look at other news. After Iraq win the the first Asian Cup, every trophy goes to Japan or Australia. Germany are winners of 10 of the first 17 Nations Cups, with Italy attending 7 finals in 9 years. Jamaica perform surprisingly well in the Gold Cup, and Mexico B take a Copa America. Which probably shouldn't happen. Maybe they're banned now.

Let's try one more thing...

How about we up the stakes. Players won't be released anymore. Instead, they'll be transferred to the playoff winner from Serie B. It doesn't sound like a big change, but it stops the worst team being easily beaten. More importantly, all money is stolen. Let's see if Juventus can rebuild without the funds to do so.

Season 1: Surprise surprise, Juventus win.Season 2: Well that was easy. Juventus are relegated at the first try with 28 points. Inter take the title.Season 3: Juventus sneak back into Serie A thanks to a playoff win over Chievo. Inter get relegated in dead last. It's AC Milan with the title.Season 4: Juventus are straight back down, falling with 34 points. Inter fail to get promoted in the playoffs, whilst Milan survive in 15th place. Roma win this time round.Season 5: Inter claim automatic promotion from Serie B, whilst Juventus have to beat Avellino in the playoff to go back up. Roma fall down a league in 18th, as Napoli take the title.

Well wasn't that far easier. Juventus have dropped to a yo-yo team, and most teams who win get relegated. I will say, I didn't give Juventus the Serie A players when they won the playoffs. But that wasn't the point of this extra test. None of the clubs that received players won anything, with Verona doing best by getting 2nd in Season 5. The test worked though, I broke the elite!

The end

So that's that. As I said earlier, I swear I have nothing against Juventus. But the longer they avoided relegation, the more I wanted to get them. I've always had a soft spot for AC Milan so I couldn't hold it against them in the same way. Regardless of the failure though, it was still a fun one to test. It did need more maintenance than most, as I could only sim a year at a time. Add life into that and you've got a little bit more work than I expected. Don't get me wrong that, it was still just as interesting as before, with every season mattering.

Comments and feedback and suggestions are all welcome. Or general conversation about the weather if you like. I'm not fussed.

Interesting experiment and results. I wonder if England might be a better option for a test like this though, since the TV money is much more equal across the whole league - I think I'm right in saying that the top teams in Italy get a FAR larger share of TV money than the bottom ones, which will obviously help with their recovery from being stripped of all their players.

Interesting Experiment but as Sam says doing this in England will be much more interesting.
Though instead of making all the Players as Free Agents it would be better to improve the Quality of the League by gradually developing the Team that Qualifies to the PL from Play offs. That way in a few years every team will have Champion players in their ranks and with England's TV Money any team could realistically win the League.