Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Newark by-election: Can we drop this ludicrous fiction that Ukip is a real political force?

I don’t want to say I told you so. Actually, I do. The Ukip revolution is over.

Let’s remember where we were a month ago – the morning after the resignation of Patrick Mercer. It was a crisis for the Tories. A gift for Nigel Farage. Senior Conservatives were briefing it was a nailed-on cert that the People’s Army would secure their first MP.

Let’s not go back that far. Let’s go back to the night of the European elections. As the results came in, Ukip officials and supporters were excitedly tweeting that Ukip had topped the poll in the Newark constituency.

Hell, let’s only go back as far as last night. A few hours ago, before the result, was announced, Nigel Farage was on TV boasting that Ukip were going to run the Tories a close second and secure their best ever by-election performance.

None of these things happened. Not one. Ukip lost. Again. In fact they didn’t lose, they were crushed. They didn’t run the Tories close – the Tories sailed home by over 7,000 votes, a 20 per cent margin, almost three times the margin Ukip’s leader was predicting. Despite the supposed “launch pad” of the local and Euro elections, they didn’t even manage to post their best ever by-election result. They went backwards from their result in Eastleigh. Professor John Curtice had identified 30 per cent of the vote as Ukip’s benchmark for success. Ukip spokesman were confidently boasting they’d clear it. Again, they didn’t come close. The couldn’t even break 26 per cent.

Presumably over the next couple of days the backlash will commence. We will see a raft of furious articles condemning the elitism, arrogance and aloofness of the voters of Nottinghamshire. Rightly. The good people of Newark are clearly far too well-educated, cultural and young for their own good.

Can we please stop it now? Can we drop this ludicrous fiction Ukip will be a serous force at the next election? That Nigel Farage is a political messiah? That his party is somehow able to magically transcend the laws of politics?

As the campaign commenced we were told that Ukip had a new sophisticated system of data capturing that would sweep them to triumph. An army of activists would descend to meet the Tories, blow-for-blow. Their candidate, Roger Helmer, was “in touch with this part of the world”.

Again, it was all rubbish. Their campaign consisted of small groups of men driving around in Land Rovers bellowing at people through megaphones. Not only did their People’s Army not show up, their leader didn’t bother to show up, save for a single fleeting visit. Roger Helmer will probably never set foot in Newark town square again.

We should also drop another ludicrous fiction: the fiction that after Newark there is the slightest possibility that Labour will win the next general election. Labour is not recovering after its 2010 defeat, it is sinking further. How can the main party of opposition actually go backwards – backwards – in a parliamentary by-election? Labour can’t even convince people it’s a serious party of opposition, never mind a serious party of government.

For the Lib Dems it was another terrible night. Although there was one silver lining. They managed to come just ahead of Nick the Flying Brick (Loony).

The only winners were the Conservatives. David Cameron gambled everything on Newark, and won big. When Nigel Farage was bragging to everyone who would listen Ukip would run the Tories close, (proving Ukip don’t even know how to count votes, never mind win enough for a parliamentary seat), it was looking like it might be a bumpy night. In the end it was a triumph.

The Tories came within one per cent of Labour in the local elections. They dropped only three points in the Euro elections, despite the supposed Ukip surge. And they comfortably retained Newark, their first by-election hold in government for quarter of a century.

David Cameron is heading for victory. Nigel Farage is heading for the wilderness. Some of us did warn you.