CCS football playoffs: Serra’s spot in Open Division not guaranteed

After much closer inspection, Serra’s game Saturday afternoon at home against Archbishop Mitty is even bigger than we thought.

Turns out, Serra’s spot in the Central Coast Section Open Division playoffs — and Wilcox’s, for that matter — might depend on the outcome.

If Serra wins, it will share the West Catholic Athletic League championship with Mitty and qualify for the Open as the league’s automatic qualifier by virtue of the head-to-head win over the Monarchs.

Mitty would then drop to the fifth seed in the Open, behind four of the five league champions that automatically qualify.

Wilcox, assuming it finishes second to Milpitas in the SCVAL De Anza Division, would drop out of the Open and into its natural enrollment division (probably Division II).

If Mitty wins, Serra most likely would fall to its enrollment division because of insufficient power points (incredible, I know), and Wilcox would take the Open’s third and final at-large spot behind Bellarmine and Valley Christian.

If that happens, here is how we project the Open:

No. 8 Palma (7-3) at No. 1 Mitty (10-0)

No. 5 Bellarmine (7-3) at No. 4 Leland (8-2)

No. 6 Valley Christian (7-3) at No. 3 Milpitas (9-1)

No. 7 Wilcox (9-1) at No. 2 Terra Nova (10-0)

How does the above projection become reality:

Milpitas defeats Los Gatos

Wilcox defeats Saratoga

Bellarmine defeats Riordan

Valley Christian defeats St. Ignatius

Leland defeats Independence

Terra Nova defeats Half Moon Bay

And then …

Mitty defeats Serra

Though Serra beat Bellarmine and Valley Christian quite decisively, it got hurt badly because none of its nonleague opponents won a league championship, which would have given the Padres more power points. (De La Salle is an independent, therefore did not win a league.)

But even if the CCS were to recognize DLS as a league champion, which it should, Serra would still fall short of passing Bellarmine, Valley Christian and Wilcox in the points column if those three win this weekend.

All three of Bellarmine’s nonleague opponents have won or are on pace to win at least a share of a league title, and two of Valley Christian’s nonleague opponents won or are on pace to win a league championship.

I took screen shots of the CCS bylaws page that explain how points are awarded (click on the photos here or take a look at the link to the CCS bylaws page yourself).

We also broke down the points for the Open contenders, using the CCS formula and projected results above.

Here is that breakdown:

MITTY

Los Gatos A

Leland A-CLC

Paly A

Riordan A+

VC A+

SHC A+

SF A+

SI A+

Bell A+

Serra A+

Record: 10-0 (if it beats Serra)

20 points for wins (10 x 2)

10.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 7)

3 points for playing A opponents (1 x 3)

0.5 points for playing a co-league champ (Leland)

3 points for winning an A+ league

Status: Open Automatic Qualifier (AQ) as a league champion

Total points: 37

TERRA NOVA

O’Dowd C

SI A+

Pioneer A

Salinas A

Sequoia A

SSF A

Menlo A

M-A A

SHP A

Half Moon Bay B

Record: 10-0 (if it beats Half Moon Bay)

20 points for wins (10 x 2)

7 points for playing A opponents (1 x 7)

1.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 1)

0.5 points for playing B opponent (0.5 x 1)

2.5 points for winning an A league

Status: Open AQ as a league champion

Total points: 31.5

MILPITAS

Woodside B

SHC A+

Valley Christian A+

Wilcox A

Saratoga A

SC A

Paly A

Fremont A

MtnView A

Los Gatos A

Record: 9-1 (if it beats Los Gatos)

18 points for wins (9 x 2)

7 points for playing A opponents (1 x 7)

3 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 2)

0.5 points for playing B opponent (0.5 x 1)

2.5 points for winning an A league

Status: Open AQ as a league champion

Total points: 31

LELAND

San Jose B

Mitty A+LC

Soquel B

OG A

PH A

Sobrato A

Pioneer A

WG A

ST A

Indy A

Record: 8-2 (if it beats Independence)

16 points for wins (8 x 2)

7 points for playing A opponents (1 x 7)

1.5 points for playing A+ opponent (1.5 x 1)

1 point for playing B opponent (0.5 x 2)

1 points for playing a league champion (Mitty)

1.25 points for being a co-A league champion

Status: Open AQ as a league champion

Total points: 27.75

BELLARMINE

El Cerrito A/LC

San Leandro B/LC

PH A/CLC

Serra A+

SF A+

SI A+

VC A+

SHC A+

Mitty A+

Riordan A+

Record: 7-3 (if it beats Riordan)

14 points for wins (7 x 2)

10.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 7)

2 points for playing A opponents (1 x 2)

0.5 points for playing B opponent (0.5 x 1)

3.5 points for playing league or co-league champions (El Cerrito, San Leandro, Piedmont Hills-co, WCAL)

Status: Open at-large

Total points: 30.5

VALLEY CHRISTIAN

Vacaville A-LC

O’Dowd C

Milpitas A-LC

SHC A+

Mitty A+

Serra A+

Bell A+

Riordan A+

SF A+

SI A+

Record: 7-3 (if it beats St. Ignatius)

14 points for wins (7 x 2)

10.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 7)

2 points for playing A opponents (1 x 2)

3 points for playing league champions (Vacaville, Milpitas, WCAL)

Status: Open at-large

Total points: 29.5

WILCOX

Manteca A-LC

Half Moon Bay B

Seaside A

Milpitas A

Paly A

Fremont A

MtnView A

LG A

Santa Clara A

Saratoga A

Record: 9-1 (if it beats Saratoga)

18 points for wins (9 x 2)

9 points for playing A opponents (1 x 9)

0.5 points for playing B opponents (0.5 x 1)

2 points for playing league champions (Manteca, Milpitas)

Status: Open Division bubble (needs help)

Total points: 29.5

PALMA

Carmel C-LC

St. Francis A+

St. Joes-Santa Maria A

Paly A

Monterey A

Seaside A

Alisal A

Salinas A

MVC A

San Benito A

Record: 7-3 (if it beats San Benito)

14 points for wins (7 x 2)

8 points for playing A opponents (1 x 8)

1.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 1)

1 point for playing league champion (Carmel)

2.5 points for winning an A league

Status: Open AQ as a league champion

Total points: 27

ST. FRANCIS

Oak Grove A

Palma A-LC

Skyline C

SI A+

Bell A+

Riordan A+

Mitty A+

Serra A+

VC A+

SHC A+

Record: 7-3 (if it beats Sacred Heart Cathedral)

14 points for wins (7 x 2)

10.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 7)

2 points for playing A opponents (1 x 2)

2 points for playing league champions (Palma, WCAL)

Status: Open Division bubble (needs help)

Total points: 28.5

SERRA

DLS A

Encinal A

Buhach Colony B

Bell A+

SHC A+

VC A+

SI A+

SF A+

Riordan A+

Mitty A+

Record: 7-3 (if it loses to Mitty)

14 points for wins (7 x 2)

10.5 points for playing A+ opponents (1.5 x 7)

2 points for playing A opponents (1 x 2)

0.5 points for playing B opponent (0.5×1)

1 point for playing a league champion (Mitty)

Status: Open Division bubble, albeit controls own destiny to Open

Total points: 28

*********

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It is incredible that Serra could be pushed out of the open. Seems like it is not just how YOU play but rather how WHO you play plays?!? (Does that make any sense?) and no A+ points for the DLS game is a joke. If I understand the above, Mitty’s 3 pre season games was worth 15.5 points. Kinda fails when compared to Serra having played DLS so closely. Win or loose, Serra deserves a spot.
Without Serra, Mitty should coast to the Open championship. No offense to the other teams, but They’ve already proved they can beat 4 teams they will face. They have the momentum.

CantWaitFor Football

Serra has opted out of open in the past. The rules changed in part because Serra didn’t want to be in open, but their division. Not worried if Serra doesn’t get a spot.

Dgood

I love Serra’s program, but it could be a blessing. Perhaps a better chance make it to the state finals.

Cmon Man

If Serra wants in to the Open, they have their chance next Saturday. If they lose, then they get what they get

http://Varsitysports Gridiron girl

I heard rumblings about Serras lack of interest in clinching a spot in the Open this year. Some were commenting they’d prefer out. I can’t imagine they’d not want to win the WCAL though…

Neil

Question, do the CCS bylaws for football treat all non-CCS teams as B-League teams regardless of division as they have in the past in seeding teams not only in football but in other sports. We may want to check on that. Because that would affect the power points that teams earn if they play out of the area teams or non-CCS teams seeing that a non-CCS team would earn B league points only even if they were an “A” or “A+” division team.

Neil

Actually, I found the answer I was looking for in the Bylaws in Section 5, B3. Non-CCS teams and independent teams within the CCS are classified as follows:

7 or more wins: A league classification
4-6 wins: B league classification
3 or less wins: C league classification

Hopefully, the non-CCS teams are factored in accordingly on the calculations made.

PrepFan90

Darren’s calculations is correct for Serra. BY their records, DLS and Encinal are A and BC is a B. Serra needs to win to play in the OPEN.

My only question is if they lose will they play in DI or DII. DI is the weakest of all divisions, I believe. But from their enrollment, they are slotted for DII. Which pits them with St Francis, the team they lost in regular season.

WIth that said, is Serra going to purposely lose against Mitty to stay out of the OPEN and possibly go to DII and maybe face a team they lost to earlier or try to win the OPEN and face weaker public schools and face league teams they beaten earlier.

I don’t buy any team laying down on any given game. Teams play to win period. People can make sense of all the possibilities but these kids playing football are taught to play hard, try their best and hope the outcome is a win. Serra vs Mitty is going to be a battle for the share of being a WCAL Champion, first and foremost.

Lancer08

Wouldn’t it be better for Serra to drop into DII. With the loss to St. Francis they don’t have a real shot at the open or DI regional. The DII is still a possibility. Having both Serra and St Francis in the DII playoffs also means that either SF or Serra will get a win over another top CCS team making a better case for a regional game for the winner.

If Serra goes open division, even if St Francis wins the DII, I think, they wouldn’t get a bid because they wouldn’t add a signature win to overcome their record.

If Serra and SF plays in DII, and one of them wins out, they are not guaranteed a spot at the Regionals and with three losses in their record it going to be a tough decision by the committee to choose them. If Serra goes to the OPEN and wins out there, they are guaranteed a shot at Regionals either in the Regional Open or Regional DI. (someone correct me if I’m wrong. SI (DIII by enrollment) last year won the OPEN but had to play in DI regional against Granite Bay.

@Lancer08, there are only four divisions in NorCal that are legit contenders for the regional Open and D-I games. As such, whoever wins the CCS Open Division (even if that were 8-seed Palma) would at least get an invite to the D-I regional.

joeb

@DarrenSabedra
I believe that DLS is considered a designated league champion by NCS, so you should add a point to Serra’s total

Lancer08

@Cal 14

I just want to see more teams from CCS have a chance. It would be nice if teams from CCS were allowed to play their enrollment. Without the open we could have Terra Nova and Mitty as excellent regional candidates in their divisions and possibly a third from the other good teams in the open.

Darren Sabedra

@joeb I am checking with the CCS to see if DLS will be considered a league champion at the seeding meeting Sunday. I have heard from more than one source that it will not this year. As soon as I find out, I will update here. With today being a holiday, I might not hear back until Tuesday. But even if Serra gets that extra DLS point, it still won’t pass Bellarmine, VC and Wilcox if all three of those teams win this weekend and Serra loses to Mitty.

joeb

@Darren,
Hard to see the CCS not count them if both EBAL and NCS considers DLS a league champion. I know that playing DLS used to give that team an additional point, but that is not the case anymore. But, I know it wont matter for making the Open, but it does matter for seeding in the Div 2, as the extra point would move them ahead of SF to being the #1 seed in Div 2.

Cal 14

@Lancer08:

I also want to see more CCS teams get a shot, but I can’t condone the concept of Mitty playing at its enrollment level. I don’t think you can walk around saying “the WCAL is one of the toughest leagues in NorCal…. but we want to play in Division II.”

The team with the real beef is Terra Nova. Their enrollment is actually smaller than Campolindo from the NCS, who competes in D-III! TN will have to be in D-I. That’s not fair.

The solution is a 1.5x multiplier for the private school enrollments and get rid of the Open Division. That will push most of the WCAL into D-I, keep the smaller private schools in lower division and really balance all of the brackets. In the model I currently have, Valley Christian and St. Ignatius would be in D-II, but MItty, St. Francis, Serra, and Bellarmine would all be D-I. In that model, also, the CCS could have two D-I divisions for state, since all of the D-I and D-II brackets would have teams with adjusted enrollments over 2000 students. Terra Nova would actually be D-V (D-III for state).

PrepFan90

@cal 14 – I like your idea but the pressing issue is that the DI schools will not like idea because they would have to deal with more WCAL school in their divisions. Also if VC and SI are 1.5X, they actually move into in DI category this year.

Yes and no. VC and SI would be moved up into what would then be D-II, which could be D-I or D-II for state, depending on what the CIF decides. Didn’t SI just win the Open Division title last year? Wasn’t VC #1 in the section for most of 2010? What, does SI want to join the AAA and VC go back to the Mt. Hamilton?

I understand that the large public schools will not like it, but who here actually believes that Milpitas or Independence with 3000+ students should be considered D-II for state? Even my alma mater, Salinas, will simply have to step up.

There will not be a system that satisfies everyone, but there needs to be one that is equitable for as many as possible. We’re never going to have a division for only private schools, so some public schools are going to have to deal with them. If you want to see how this would actually work, look at this link and see how the divisions actually would be (based on a couple of weeks ago).

Cal 14

Sorry, click on my handle in the above message to go to the link.

Darren Sabedra

According to the CCS, De La Salle football has not been recognized as a league champion in the CCS’s eyes since it became an independent.

Lancer08

@ Cal 14

I have actually read your proposal and believe it would be an improvement over the current system. I don’t really see it as a private vs public issue. There are also private schools that play in leagues other than WCAL. Those schools are usually good/above average for their league, but not on the same level as the WCAL schools year after year. It is hard to come up with a system that is fair to everyone though and your proposal is by far the best I’ve seen.

I honestly don’t think it is even needed though. I don’t know why CCS is so different from other sections in California. It’s only in CCS where a private school league seems to almost always dominate. Yes, with open boundaries and all the money here people can often send their kids to private schools, but I’m sure LA and OC have jut as many people able to afford private school. And again, some private schools in CCS aren’t that good. On the other hand you have programs at Terra Nova, Los Gatos, and Palo Alto that would probably be successful competing in WCAL. Maybe competing in a tough league is what makes teams better, or the great support the athletic departments have at those schools?

joeb

@Darren,

Thank you for the update. So, even though NCS recognizes DLS as league champion, the CCS will not. And goes back to the stupid point system that says beating Riordan is worth more points than beating DLS.
Any idea of why CCS is so ignorant?

Cmon Man

To all those who even mention the idea of Serra folding intentionally to Mitty and handing over the WCAL title: you all have never played in the WCAL. Winning that League title in most sports is far more prestigious than winning the CCS title. Serra still has a chance to win the WCAL and they will go all out to do so. If they lose, their chances of reaching the state title game are pretty close to down the tubes anyway so taking a dive does them no good even if they were considering it.

Lancer08

Palo Alto and Los Gatos schedule nonleague games against WCAL teams and usually lose. I’m not sure what your definition of “competing” is. Paly had a couple top notch teams and even made it to state one year (although some say they were handed a win in the CCS Open first round against Mitty on a controversial call on 4th and goal late in the game). Recently, the Vikings havent been even good enough to win its own League, much less compete in the WCAL.

Los Gatos is far past their glory years and the CCS titles they won were often when they opted down to stay away from the top powers. Terra Nova is a recent power but before their current uptrend they had no business playing in the WCAL.

In my opinion, all three of these teams (and you can even through Milpitas and Wilcox into this group) are good enough to maybe finish as high as 5th or POSSIBLY 4th in the WCAL in a good year…no higher.

2wcats

Surprise, surprise Cmon Man throwing WCAL hand grenades again…

Yeah that Paly team was just lucky
13-10 Mitty
35-0 Bellarmine
21-14 Valley Christian
15-13 Centennial (Corona CA) for the CIF State Championship

I guess beating the WCAL champion, 2nd place, and 3rd place finisher would have put Paly no better than 4th place in the WCAL that year…

joeb

@Cmon,

It is one thing to be proud of WCAL, another thing to be arrogant, sometimes its a fine line.
Bottom line is that you think Bells feel better winning the WCAL championship last year than SI does in winning the Open? Dont think so! With the creation of the Open, it is now more prestigious than winning the WCAL title.

As for Serra throwing the game. No chance. Serra has legit chance to be WCAL and CCS Open champ. That guarantees them a spot in the NorCal Bowl. Should they lose, they still have a good shot of making Nor Cal bowl by winning the Div 2 playoffs.

@2wcats,
That was one hell of a PA team, and clearly was the best team in ccs that year. PA seems to put together a great team every 5 years that would challenge for the top of the WCAL.

Dgood

Serra throwing the game is down right dumb. Does anyone really think throwing the game has come into the minds of their players? This game will be Serra’s Senior day and believe me they want that W and the league title.

Westsidesantaclara

So if their is a by virtue if head to head win, shouldn’t Los Farsi go to the open if they beat Milpitas?

Westsidesantaclara

Gatos

Westsidesantaclara

Never mind I’m just gonna sit back and see how it turns out… This is hella confusing

MT

Hello all. Good to see some of the same faces on here. Been sitting back & watching the back & forth this year so far. Now it is time to address some things.

First off I saw more teams this past summer in contact & passing camps than ever before. Talked to numerous coaches also. It definitely paid off. Pretty much everything discussed proved right. WCAL would be a dog fight between Serra, Mitty & VC. The DAL would be between Milpitas & Wilcox. LG has played better as of late. Paly was a big win last week for them. More than 1 thought Paly would be down even with Keller. Palma in the MBG. Terra Nova in the PAL Bay. The 1 thing we did not see was Leland. OG was the majority choice even though they were also down. The MHAL as a whole is down big time.

Believe this. No WCAL team is gonna throw a game. Let’s put that to rest. And all of you Wilcox & Serra fans that think they can play in the CCS D2 & get a play in game….NOT going to happen. The only ones that will have a chance at a play in game will be the 8 teams in the Open. NO others. There are only 6 spots available. DLS, Folsom, Casa Grande, Enterprise & Del Oro are probably all shoe ins. Barring any huge upsets, there is only 1 spot left. CCS Open.

Right now I have 37 teams in. Independence being an AL @ 19.5. The winner of Gilroy/ N. Salinas is in. That is 38 teams. 2 to go. If N. Salinas loses they go in the pool @ 19. Seaside, Sequoia & Aragon all need to win to get to 19 whiich is going to be the cut off this year. The only common opponent between NS & Seaside is Salinas. Seaside won & NS lost. The common opponent between Sequoia & Aragon is Woodside. They both won. There will probably be a coin flip or 2 @ the seeding meeting Sunday just like last year. Nothing will be decided until Saturday afternoon. The open still has some spots to fill. Only Mitty, Palma & TN are in so far. Milpitas, VC, Bell & Leland are in w/ wins. The last team will either be Serra, Wilcox or SF.

Also Darren you should check your #’s. Carmel is in the Mission Trail, a B league. Not a C league like you thought. Maybe you should pay more attention to of the section you supposedly cover. Maybe seeing Mitty 5 times like you stated in a recent column you wrote has something to do with that. You cover the CCS not just 1 team. 10 weeks into the season so far, 95 teams in the section, & you spent half your time watching 1 school from 1 league??? Maybe you should get a few pointers from Alex P. Might do you some good. Also stop listening to Glenn Reaves on how the PAL Bay is this great League. It’s NOT. TN a 41.4 rating?? What a joke. Completely OVERRATED. The PAL schools all play each other so it makes themselves look better than they actually are. They had 2 A leagues a few years ago when they should have been B leagues @ best. Their own head of the league, Bill Gray of Terra Nova wanted OUT of the A leagues & Open and was shot down by the rest of his colleagues. Yeah that’s a great league. Bellarmine hammered them twice. Their fate in Open will be the same. Trust me they are praying Mitty beats Serra so they will draw Wilcox, still not an easy opponent. But the lesser of 2 evils. The other is VC who will HAMMER them. I like TN to lose to either VC or Wilcox.

2wcats

@WSSC If LG wins on Friday it would be a three way tie for the De Anza. In that case I believe the open slot would go to the team with the highest power point total of the three – Wilcox

joeb

@MT,
Nice to see you posting again. Why dont you tell us how you REALLY feel. LMAO!

murfcv

@MT; MTAL is a C league this year, and it was last year. I haven’t even taken a look at the points, but PG and Carmel would have to win some playoff games this year for the MTAL to pull out of a C league

In Darren’s defense, the Merc made some weird rule 5 years ago that they will only cover the The northern part of the section.

LancerDad64

Can someone help provide the scenario for the SF Lancers qualify for Open? I suspect it requires a Mitty win over Serra and a Valley Christian loss to Saint Ignatius.. Your wisdom would be appreciated.

Darren Sabedra

@ LancerDad64 If Serra loses and St. Francis wins, St. Francis finishes with 28.5 points and Serra with 28. But Wilcox, if it wins and Milpitas wins, would finish with 29.5 points and take that last at-large spot into the Open.

So, yes, it would likely take Serra and Valley Christian both losing and St. Francis winning for the Lancers to make the Open.

Here is another scenario …

If Serra and Milpitas lose and Wilcox and St. Francis win, Wilcox gets the De Anza Division’s AQ into the Open and St. Francis would join Bellarmine and Valley as the three at-large teams. With 28.5 points, St. Francis would have more points than Serra and Milpitas.

Cmon Man

@MT
Maybe you (or someone else out there) can enlighten me. Isn’t Folsom and Del Oro in the same section, meaning only one of them can win the Sectional title? As for Casa Grande, they are undefeated but are not even in the top 10 in this week’s Calhisports Bay Area rankings (behind 3 three loss teams and one four loss team). I don’t know where other rankings have them but if you are 10-0 and still that far back, you are far from a shoe in, it seems to me.

SJ FOOTBALL

@ MT : are you 37 teams in any different from what PAL BOOSTER has predicted?

@c’mon man : According to people posting on a different board, Folsom is #1 seed in D 1 and Del Oro is a #1 seed in D 2 so they can both win their section.

MT

Joeb likewise good to see everyone on here too

murfcv… you are right they are a C league. THIS year. Last year they were a B league. SCCAL is a B league this year. They were a C league last year. Uh oh….may need to update some #’s LOL. Sorry to Darren on that 1. I know Darren has a tough job. 1 person to cover all those games. My point was he needs to be more diverse in who he sees. There are 13 leagues not just 1. & 95 teams not just 1.

c’mon man…..first off DO NOT look @ the calhisports rankings. They are HORRIBLE. They are the same that had Paly as a preseason #14 in the state. LAUGHABLE. Some of their current rankings are suspect as well. Folsom (SJS D1) D1 Del Oro (SJS D2). They can BOTH go & probably will. DLS (NCS D1) Casa Grande (NCS D2) & Enterprise(North D1) will all get bids I believe. That leaves ONLY the CCS Open champion. CCS D2 will fall short.

sj football….have not seen PAL booster’s. I am sure they are close though.

joeb

MT,
I would disagree that the D2 winner in CCS is not in serious contention for Div 2 NorCal Bowl bid.

Look at the contenders:
NS – Enterprise
NCS – Casa Grande or Clayton Valley
SJS – I dont think any of the top 3, Amer Canyon, Manteca or Inderkum would go
CCS – Serra/SF have chance.

IMO – If Enterprise wins NS, they will go. If Casa Grande wins out, I think they would be other choice. IF One of those 2 teams do not win their section, it leaves Serra in decent contention. I think Serra or SF is selected over SJS Div 3 winner. If Clayton Valley wins, I think they would get nod over SF, but not sure they would over Serra as their common opponent is DLS and Serra played them much closer.

redzone

@joeb

I think Serra would need Mitty to win the open, DLS to win the NCS D1 and for them to beat SF in the D2 playoffs. That way it shows that they lost to 2 section champs and beat out the team that beat them the firs time. All of which can happen.

Cmon Man

MT, apparently Darren disagrees with you. His article in today’s Merc says that Serrsa would have a “good chance” of making the Norcal game if it win D2. I don’t know if he’s right, just sayin…

joeb

@Redzone&Cmon

If Serra loses to Mitty and they go on to win Div 2, they would still need help from the other sections. I just dont see how they would be selected over Enterprise or Casa Grande. Enterprise losing would be enough IMO to have Serra vs NCS winner. But, lots of games left, and certainly would be foolish to assume Serra losing to Mitty.

Darren Sabedra

@ joeb It is my understanding that the CIF regional matchups are chosen subjectively. If that is the case and no points system is used, a 10-3 Serra team (if it loses Saturday and then wins CCS D-II) with a resume that includes a very close loss to De La Salle, a close loss at St. Francis and — let’s say, a close loss to unbeaten Mitty — is attractive even against a team from another section that is unbeaten or has one loss. De La Salle has won all of its games by at least 20 points, except for the seven-point win over Serra. DLS beat Del Oro 41-3.

joeb

@Darren,
I agree with the subjectivity, but I just dont see how subjectively you take Serra over Enterprise or Casa Grande or even potentially over Clayton Valley. I just think one of those teams will have to lose in order for Serra to make it in.

Lancer08

I still think if both Serra and St Francis play in D-II they have a shot at getting to a regional game. If they meet in the D-II final after beating all the other teams by an impressive margin (as St Francis did last year) I think you can’t just overlook them because of a few league losses. Also, if the Mitty Serra game is decided by a touchdown or less and Mitty gets the D-I bid it would further help the case of the winner.

Serra could end up with a close loss to DLS, Mitty and St Francis. Which means a close loss to the Open and D-I regional selections and a team they beat in a rematch.

St Francis would have less of a chance, but might still get in. They would have three losses that could have easily gone the other way., coming down to the last play or last drive. Two against teams in the open, and two against Serra.

Of course it all depends on how the other candidates do in their playoffs. If they run through their brackets both Serra and SF are out. And it looks like that is very likely to happen.

MT

Darren is wrong on this one. I understand subjectivity, but it is unrealistic. Darren is a WCAL homer, so naturally he would think this. But the FACTS do not warrant it. Like I said if they all win out, they will ALL get a bid for a play in game. The CCS D2 does not hold more weight than any other section’s D1 or D2 in contention. Here is why:

First SF has NO chance to get a play in game via D2. End of story.
Serra will be in the same boat in D2. End of story.

Let’s compare 2 blind team resume’s & you will see. This is what the committee looks @.

As you can clearly see Team B is superior in EVERY category. Even if Team B loses, their bracket is way stronger then Team A’s. There are 1 or 2 teams besides Team B that can pass Team A before their playoffs begin. CCS Open will be the ONLY Division(Open, D1 or D2) to get a play in game.

joeb

@MT,
I know you are convinced that D2 has not shot, so tell me who you think would be selected over Serra (assuming they are 10-3 and win the Div2 bracket).

I laid out the choices in a previous post of who could be selected for Div 2. I agree that Serra would need help, but Enterprise losing would be enough IMO for Serra to get in.