UC, CSU ENROLLING FEWER CALIFORNIANS

Study says state’s workforce could fall 1 million college graduates short of need

Higher education enrollment study

• Among high school graduates in California, enrollment rates at UC and CSU fell by one-fifth between 2007 and 2010, from about 22 percent to below 18 percent.

• Among the state’s most highly prepared high school graduates, the enrollment rate has declined even more — from about 68 percent to 55 percent.

• Many opt for overcrowded community colleges, but increases in enrollment rates there do not make up for the declines at UC and CSU.

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

The share of California high school graduates enrolling in the University of California and the California State University declined by 20 percent from 2007 to 2010, a new study has found.

San Diego County had the largest drop among the state’s more populous counties, with a 25 percent decline in graduates enrolling in the two systems.

The report, by the Public Policy Institute of California, blames the decrease on reductions in state funding for higher education.

The report — “Defunding Higher Education: What are the Effects on College Enrollment?” — notes that the university systems have cut courses, programs and services in response to decreased funding, while also capping enrollment at more desirable campuses.

Another barrier to enrollment is the sharp increase in tuition at UC and CSU in recent years, according to the report.

In fall 2007, 21.9 percent of the state’s high school graduates enrolled in UC or CSU. By fall 2010, that number had declined to 17.8 percent. Among the state’s best-prepared high school graduates — those that completed a college prep curriculum — the decline was even greater: 67.5 percent in 2007 to 54.9 percent in 2010.

“If current enrollment trends persist, California faces an alarming loss of college graduates at a time when the state needs to be developing a more highly skilled workforce to ensure its future prosperity,” says the report authored by Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the institute.

The report projects California “will fall one million college graduates short of economic demand by 2025 unless enrollment and graduation rates improve substantially.”

Johnson said the sharper-than-average decline in San Diego County is explained by the popularity, and related selectivity, of the region’s three public universities: UC San Diego, San Diego State University and CSU San Marcos.

The drop in enrollment rates is not a result of a decline in applicants’ qualifications, according to the study. The share of high school graduates who complete classes required for UC and CSU admission — known as A-G courses — is at historically high levels for every ethnic group in the state. Yet enrollment rates at these universities are declining for each group and are sharpest among African-Americans.

The report by the institute, a private foundation that does not take positions on ballot measures or support candidates or parties, states that California’s general fund support for higher education, including community colleges, declined by 9 percent over the past 10 years. That reduction came even as the state saw a rapid rise in the number of high school graduates, reaching a peak of 405,000 in 2010.

The report’s conclusions did not come as a surprise to local educators.

“Certainly we see it in our campus, having to turn away qualified students who should be able to attend,” said Cathy Baur, ﻿associate vice president of communications at California State University San Marcos.

“… From a regional perspective, it’s frightening. An educated workforce is an economic driver. We are not able to provide that workforce to meet the demand.”

Point Loma High’s Caitlin Snell, the student representative on the state Board of Education, expressed concern about the enrollment trend.

“Lack of funding from the student or from the university should not be the reason why California high school graduates are not admitted into a UC or CSU,” she wrote in an email.