Buzz on the Street: What Traders Are Saying About the June NFP Report, Twitter, and Treasury Yields

A look back at the happenings on Wall Street this week, as seen by Minyanville's contributors.

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Here's a small sampling of the 120+ posts seen on the Buzz & Banter this week:

Monday, June 30, 2014

NDX At a Key Level
Marc Eckelberry

As noted a week ago [subscription required], the Nasdaq 100 ( (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) has upside risk to the bear market retraces of 76.4% at 3867 and 78.6% at 3955.

Well, here we are at the first target with NDX at 3858 after an incredible breakout run from 50% resistance (2805) in early 2013.

NQ (NDX futures) has an obvious target of 3852.50, the weekly R1. The risk above that remains 3955, but I would not be surprised to see a summer high right around the corner.

Bonds have been holding a steady bid, and the yield on the 10-year could come down and test 2.457% in the near future.

Click to enlarge

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Twitter Up For Sale Based on CFO Appointment?
Michael Comeau

There is some chatter that Twitter's (TWTR) hirie of Anthony Noto as CFO could be part of a dress-up for a sale.

This seems like an illogical assumption.

Noto took Twitter public as a banker with Goldman Sachs, which seems to be the rationale of the rumor-mongers. Noto resigned from Goldman in May to take a job with the hedge fund Coatue, though he stepped away from that opportunity to join Twitter.

In the remote chance Twitter wants to sell itself, there's no reason it would specifically need Noto to execute a successful deal. They'd have pick of any investment banker in the world to get it done. Heck, they could bring Noto on as a consultant on a deal without appointing him CFO with a potential 9-figure compensation package.

Additionally, Twitter has had a number of executive changes in recent months, including the departure of COO Ali Rowghani.

Noto is most likely just valuable new blood brought in to handle Wall Street and business development.

And he wasn't just a banker -- he was once CFO of the NFL, so this position isn't exactly out of his wheelhouse.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Yields in Front of Tomorrow's Number
Jeffrey Cooper

Is ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) tracing out a potential bullish "second mouse gets the cheese" move above its 50 dma after the failed attempt on June 20?

See a daily TBT chart from May with its 50 dma:

Click to enlarge

Thursday, July 3, 2014

NFP and ECB
Michael Sedacca

It's been a busy hour with the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report and the ECB rate decision.

Here is what I've gathered thus far:

ECB:

The ECB is moving to a 6-week cycle (from 4 weeks) for rate decisions, effective January 2015

Full details for the TLTRO program will be released after the conclusion of Draghi's press conference

Work has continued on the ABS program, which is being used to repair the lending channel. The ECB wants higher transparency on these bonds at the loan level before they start buying

NFP:

The number of long-term unemployed dropped by 293,000 to 3.1 million in June, which is 32.8% of the total unemployed. That's a drop of 1.2 million over the past year. Some of the drop this year may be due to the rolling off of long-term unemployment insurance

Part-time jobs rose by 799,000 according to the household data set, most likely due to summer jobs starting

There was a slightly higher level of jobs created in retail trade than normal, and local government jobs increased

Increases in nominal wage gains are still tracking at 2%-2.4% year-over-year. It was 2% this month, but should stay in that trend zone

The person who bought $100 billion+ in notional exposure to Eurodollar future steepeners yesterday is very happy this morning. Dec 2015 Euro (EDZ5) is +6.5bps today and Z6 is 2.5bps steeper. Accordingly, the front end of the Treasury curve is getting whacked

The 30-year yield is still balking at going back through its pivot at 3.5%, which is very telling. If we lose that pivot, then the inflation camp takes over. I would take the other side of that trade

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