Clifford's Big Red Blog

Friday, February 13, 2004

Correction

Thursday, February 12, 2004

Baseball

I promised I'd get back to baseball today.

Lesseee . . .

Aaron Boone's surgery, originally scheduled for this past Tuesday, was delayed because of a rash on his knee. More proof that the man is either cursed or incapable of taking care of himself. By the way, at my current salary it would take me almost 30 years to make Aaron Boone's 30-day termination pay.

The Yankees are after Travis Lee, who according to Scott at YM&tR is a defensive god at first. I've got mixed feelings about Lee at the moment. Fortunately, I can withhold judgment as Scott Boras is doing all he can to screw up the deal for his client.

Speaking of which, Jay Jaffe linked to this revealing Bill Madden piece on Boras last week. It's a must read. Personally, I'd like to see someone do an even more in depth piece on what I see as the fall of Boras's empire (remember how Gary Sheffield dropped him prior to becoming a free agent this offseason because he knew the Yankees hate dealing with him?). God, I hate that rugginfruggin [etc. Yosemite Sam noises].

What else . . .

Assuming you've been keeping up with the top six links at left, you know that there's been some jibba-jabba about giving Mariano Rivera an extension. I think we're all in agreement that we'd like to see it happen. Pretty close to a no-brainer, really. I mean, Aaron Boone has reminded us all that postseason heroes are as often the products of flukes as they are the result of actual skill, but if Mo's performance in Game 7 of the ALCS last year didn't remind you of how tremendously valuable he still is (and that, by the way, was all skill), then nothing I write here is going to either.

Adrian Beltre is still in the rumor mill for third base, though things have quieted down considerably (no Travis Lee has never played third, he's lefthanded* fercryin'outloud). Those rumors will either heat up for die off completely once Paul DePodesta (soon-to-be-former assistant to Billy Beane) shows up for work as the Dodgers' GM. I still think that the Yankees would have to give up way too much for Beltre (think Dioner Navarro and then some), especially with a clever guy like DePodesta on the other end of Brian Cashman's line. If they're going to deal with the Dodgers, they should go for Ventura. Robin will pick 'em at the hot corner, work the count, and deliver the odd homer and a few there'snosuchthingas clutch hits. He'll also come much, much cheaper.

Pitchers and Catchers report on Saturday! That's two days from right now.

It will be interesting to see how various Yankees are doing healthwise when the full team reports one week from today. We know Lieber feels good and Karsay's making progress but is keeping his optimism under wraps, but what about Giambi's knee? He says it's "perfect" but has he really tested it? What about Bernie's shoulders and knees? Jeter's thumb and shoulder? How's Kevin Brown feeling today? Would he like to sit down and rest a little? Does Tom Gordon have any surprises for us? Is there something about Jose Contreras that we need to know? Has Paul Quantrill sold his snowmobile? How's Javier Vazquez feeling? Can I get anyone something to drink? An iced tea? Maybe some lemonade? Did Gabe White throw his back out making porn movies this winter?

Where was I?

Oh, there's a great "Baseball Tonight" screen capture over on the Yankees ESPN page. Here's the graphic: the five seasons out of the last 80 in which the Yankees had no lefthanded pitcher start 15 or more games. They made it to the World Series in three of those years, winning it twice. So what does that tell you about the whole "the Yankees need a lefty starter" thing? It's total malarky. What does it tell you about it that we didn't already know? Nothing.

Interesting note, four of those five seasons took place between 1942 and 1947. Of the six seasons during that span, the only two that don't qualify are 1944 and 1946, when lefty relief ace Joe Page (a rookie in '44) started 16 and 17 games respectively. Lefty Gomez started 13 games in 1942, his last season with the Yankees. Marius Russo started 14 in 1943 and went 5-10 with a ERA+ of 87. Page was the only lefty pitcher to appear for the Yankees for the entirety of 1945. Steady Eddie Lopat showed up in 1948. The other year on that list was 1992 when Greg Cadaret made 11 starts (don't remind me). Jimmy Key showed up in '93. Before '92 they had Jeff Johnson, Chuck Cary, Dave LaPoint, Ron Villone . . . wait. Strike that last one.

*According to Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia there have been exactly ten left-handed throwers who have ever played ten or more games at third base in the major leagues. Here's the list along with their games played and fielding percentages:

Player

Games

Pct.

Hick Carpenter

1059

.853

Lefty Marr

129

.856

Roger Connor

111

.819

Bill McClellan

58

.839

Spud Johnson

44

.835

Willie Keeler

44

.831

Jack Leary

37

.759

John Cassidy

17

.662

Mike Squires

14

1.000

George Decker

10

.727

It should surprise no one that eight of those ten men played their entire careers in the nineteenth century, including Hick Carpenter, who is the only left-handed thrower in major league history whose primary position was third base (for some perspective, Carpenter came up with the Syracuse Stars in 1879 and two years later was with the Worcester Ruby Legs). The only two lefty throwers to play ten or more games at third base since 1900 are Hall-of-Fame right-fielder Wee Willie Keeler, who played ten games there for the Brooklyn Superbas (Dodgers) in 1901 and seven for the New York Highlanders (our very own Yankees) during their first two seasons, and Mike Squires. "Spanky" Squires, primarily a first baseman, got his fourteen games in at third for Tony LaRussa's White Sox in 1983 and 1984. It should be noted that while Squires didn't make a single error in his time at third, he posted a range factor of 0.86.

*** Correction ***

Reader Derek Jacques points out that I'm a moron. Well, not really. He actually pointed out that I somehow missed the three games Don Mattingly played at third base in 1986. That revealed to me that I had failed to remember that the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia defaults to "Top 10." Turns out that there are 36 left-handed throwers who played at least one game at third base that I didn't mention above. Fortunately I had them listed in order of games played, so the analysis isn't really that far off the mark (and I've changed the wording to reflect this new info above). The remaining 36 lefties played a grand total of 89 games combined at the hot corner. Here are the names that got left off, arranged by games played at third:

Some familiar names on there--including Donnie Baseball, three Hall of Famers and the new Red Sox manager--and a lot that are unfamiliar. The last name on the list of men who played two games at third is a personal favorite. You see, not only is my dad named John Corcoran, but he's also left handed.

Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that the best name on that list is "Cannonball Titcomb." Titcomb's birth name was Ledell. So, you can see "Cannonball" was a tremendous improvement (and at 5' 6", 157, he was about the size of one). Primarily a pitcher, Titcomb played in five major league seasons from 1886-1890 debuting with the Philadelphia Quakers and wrapping things up with the Rochester Broncos of the American Association, for whom he threw a no-hitter. Titcomb had fielded all five of his chances at third base cleanly while posting a respectable 2.50 range factor.

Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Pay no attention to that music critic behind the curtain

Anyone who's spent any amount of time reading this blog has probably figured out that I love baseball, the Yankees, and writing about both. But I'd be willing to bet that few if any of you know that I also write about music. The reality of the situation is that, while this blog is just coming up on its sixth-month anniversary, I've been writing about music in one published form or another for close to a decade. And I've been tricking people into paying me to do so since 1998.

Despite majoring in journalism in school, I've discovered that my interest is less in music journalism than in music criticism. For that reason, I take a particular amount of pride in the fact that I've been asked to vote in the Village Voice's Pazz & Jop poll since 2001.

I was just one of 732 critics to submit a ballot this year (there were 621 when I was first included in 2001), but I take a great deal of pride in assembling my ballot. Every November and December I pour over more than one hundred CDs in search of that elusive gem that will complete my list. Listening once to thin out the herd, then again to pare it down further, and again and again until I have a list that I meets my three standards: 1) are these the ten best albums that I heard this year? 2) would I feel confident recommending these albums to anyone, regardless of their taste? 3) will these albums hold up over the long haul or will I regret my choices when I'm assembling my ballot for next year?

Speakerboxxx/The Love Below and Elephant were the top two finishers in this year's Pazz & Jop poll. Both are fantastic, sprawling, ambitious albums that represent significant steps forward for their respective artists. In contrast to those two, I took the Shins as my number one not so much despite the fact that it is a tight 34-minutes as because of it. If there was one hidden trend that I discovered in my listening this year, it was that there was an abundance of smart, clean, hook-laden, indie rock power pop released in 2003. Chutes Too Narrow was the best of that bunch. It rose to the top of my list early on and has held up on every listen since.

You'll notice that I awarded the same number of points (voters are given 100 points to distribute among their ten albums) to both The White Stripes and OutKast albums. Like Wilcox Yankee Hotel Foxtrot and The Flaming Lips' Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots in 2002 (although those were in contrast to a much weaker field), these two are quite clearly the two most significant releases of the year. Having said that, I also think that both acts are overrated.

OutKast are overrated in the sense that no one could live up to their hype, which upsets me. No matter how much Andre and Big Boi progress as artists from album to album, no matter how tremendous their output, the hype machine constantly keeps things ratcheted up beyond their reach. That said, Andre Benjamin has to be the coolest human being on the planet, and has been for the better part of the decade. Comparisons between The Love Below and Prince's Sign O' The Times are appropriate and deserved. Meanwhile, Big Boi's talents as a rapper are even more underrated than the duo is overrated and his Speakerboxxx is just as musical as the Black Eyed Peas winning Elephunk, but is far more introspective and carries far more emotional weight.

As for the White Stripes, I liked White Blood Cells on first listen, but the more I heard it the less I liked it until I came to outright despise everything about Jack and Meg. I was in full backlash mode when a friend gave me a burned copy of Elephant. The damn thing was fantastic. To my ears, the White Stripes have taken a giant step forward with Elephant, it's more playful, more tuneful, more experimental, and simply much, much better than their breakthrough White Blood Cells. Anyone still stuck in backlash mode from their last album should give the new one a shot. I'm not the only one who's come back around.

Moving on, the Fruit Bats Mouthfulls is a more low-key companion piece (in my mind) to Chutes Too Narrow. Fans of the latter would be well advised to pick it up.

I never paid Nada Surf any mind when "Popular" was popular, but their comeback album is a gem. I'm tempted to draw a comparison between it and Jimmy Eat World's Bleed American, which made my list in 2001, though that's not entirely appropriate.

Pretty Girls Make Graves appeals to my Sleater-Kinney side, though there's no concrete similarity between the two groups other than an occasional echo of Corin Tucker in Andrea Zollo's vocals or the fact that both remain tuneful despite the fact that they can be described as "jagged."

My Morning Jacket's It Still Moves is the first MMJ album I've been exposed to (supposedly 2001's At Dawn is even better). This is echo-drenched indie southern rock. I say "indie" despite the major label because their brand of southern rock leans more toward the Band (who were not indie either, but have had more influence on indie rock) than Skynyrd/Allmans. I tend to prefer albums that are short and sweet, but this 70-plus-minute (but just 12 songs) epic is worth the time and is an album that I expect will continue to reveal itself to me with each listen. That is to say, it's a grower, but it grows quickly.

The Pernice Brothers, like the Shins, caught my interest when I was working on my 2001 list. Those album's didn't make the cut, but their follow-ups did. This is the third Pernice Bros record from Joe Pernice, whose recording history rivals Stephin Merritt's (and yes, Joe's brother Bob is in the band). Gorgeous indie (and this time I mean it, they're on their very own label) pop for fans of the Fruit Bats.

Jayhawks. I didn't listen to them in their mid-'90s salad days. 2000's Smile turned me off immediately, but this album just has too many fantastic songs to ignore. Plus Matthew Sweet co-writes one and adds some backing vocals. Oh, and whoever can tell me what movie I know "Come to the River" from wins an imaginary prize.

Lastly, the Gossip. I cannot comprehend how the White Stripes and the Yeah Yeah Yeah's (both of whom share a one-guitar, no-bass, drums & vocals set-up with the Gossip) have gotten hyped to high heaven while the Gossip, who until Elephant were the best of the bunch, have gotten jack squat. Beth Ditto lays Karen O to waste and the Gossip's blues (which, in their case, draws on Gospel as well) is both better and more authentic than the White Stripes'. That said, their 2002 EP Arkansas Heat was even better than Movement. I left it off my list because it was an EP. That's my biggest regret in making these lists thus far. And, yes, I did leave the Black Keys out of the discussion on purpose.

Out of towners can find the complete results of the Pazz & Jop poll here, along with each critic's ballot.

Just taking a quick look at the overall top ten, we've got OutKast at #1, The White Stripes at #2, and The Shins #6. Here are the rest of their picks with my take:

3. Fountains of Wayne - Welcome Interstate Managers.

I reviewed this one when it came out. I've never been a huge fan of FoW, though I can appreciate their way with a hook (witness the theme songs to That Thing You Do and "Crank Yankers"). Still, I found this to be inferior to 1999's Utopia Parkway and can't comprehend why it took them four years to put out a disappointing follow up to that album, which I was never in love with to begin with. Most importantly, Welcome Interstate Managers is overlong and gets bogged down with mid-tempo dreck in the middle. But everyone seems to love it. Even my girlfriend (sigh).

4. Radiohead - Hail to the Thief.

Their last four albums were all top-10 material, and if I went back and made a list for 1993, Pablo Honey has a chance to make it five. I caught them on tour for Amnesiac and it was one of the best shows I've ever attended. Before I picked this one up I had nothing but love for Radiohead, but I think I'm growing tired of all of the detached misery. I can't even make it all the way through this one. Time for something new, boys.

5. Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Fever to Tell.

I saw them open up for Sleater-Kinney in 2002 and had a White Blood Cells reaction over the course of their brief set. But the CD is actually pretty darn good. Just not good enough to make my list.

7. New Pornographers - Electric Version.

This was number 11 on my list (insert Nigel Tufnel joke).

8. Basement Jaxx - Kish Kash.

This went with the first cut. Electronic music is the one genre I just can't seem to crack. Despite that I dug their debut, but never found a place for this or for Rooty, both of which have earned higher praise.

9. Drive By Truckers - Decoration Day

I'm embarrassed to say that I never got my hands on this one. Hey it happens. I can't afford all of these CDs and sometimes the record companies just don't come through. Anyone out there want to burn me a copy?

10. Dizzee Rascal - Boy in Da Corner

Ditto. My excuse here being that it wasn't released stateside until after the ballots were due in January.

And now for the runners up to my top-10 (in some vague order to which I refuse to be held):

The New Pornographers, The Ravonettes and The Minus 5 were literally last-minute cuts and thus should be considered official numbers 11, 12 & 13.

After that . . . Kings of Leon (more southerners!), The Mars Volta (prog!), The Black Eyed Peas, Ted Leo and the Pharmacists, Clem Snide, The Rapture, The Libertines (Mick Jones produced!), The Sleepy Jackson (sounds like solo John Lennon), Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Zwan, Buzzcocks, The Strokes (speak up Julian, I can't hear you, maybe if the rest of the band played nothing but straight eighth notes . . . oh wait), Electric Six (download "She's White" now!), Grandaddy, The Go Betweens, Ima Robot, The Darkness (should be higher, it's--ahem--"Growin' on Me"), Death Cab for Cutie (don't be fooled, these guys are an emo band), Cat Power, Meshell Ndegeocello (giving her some credit here, I barely got a chance to listen to this), The Thrills (they're Irish but act like they're from California!).

Sunday, February 08, 2004

Dream Team post-mortem

In an attempt to extinguish the flame on the Yankee Hot Stove, and to get rid of the now hopelessly irrelevant Dream Team listing on the side bar to the left, I thought I'd take a look at some of my offseason predictions and compare my offseason strategy to the Yankees offseason reality.

Around Thanksgiving I created the BRB's Official 2004 Yankee Dream Team. Although I never did get around to a post on the pitching staff, the 25-man Dream Team roster boiled down to this:

With all of those players now under contract for 2004 (not including Gabe White who will go to arbitration with the Yankees, assuming a league minimum $300K for Nick Johnson, and using the annual average salary of the contract the Yankees had offered Pettitte, rather than the much, much lower salary he will be earning from the Astros this season) I can now tell you that this team would have resulted in a 2004 payroll of $162,761,667 and had an average age (as of July 1, 2004) of 31.

Instead, the Yankees will start the season with a team that costs $168,440,000 (including Aaron Boone's 2004 contract, but not the potential salaries for any of his replacements, and again not counting Gabe White) and an average age of 32.8 (again, using the 31-year-old Boone as the thirdbaseman). That's an extra $5,678,333 for a team that's an average of 1.8 years older (see the end of this post for more fun with age and salary).

Actually, if the Yankees void Boone's contract and manage to replace him for a combined $900K (doubtful, as Tyler Houston would make that alone if he's included on the opening day roster), the BRB's Dream Team and the actual 2004 New York Yankees would have essentially identical payrolls.

But which is the better team? Well that 1.8 year difference in average age gives the Dream Team a big head start, but let's take a closer look at where the two differ.

Here are the substitutions you'd have to make to turn my Dream Team into the 2004 Yankees:

There's one trade there I think we'd all make in a heartbeat. That is, of course, Vazquez for Escobar. My thinking there was that Vazquez was to be a free agent after 2004 and the Yankees could have had him without having to give up Nick the Stick had they only the patience. Escobar, in the meantime, was a cheaper and younger alternative to Colon and Millwood.

Quantrill for Weaver is the second best switch up there. I didn't think the Yankees could unload Weaver. Kudos to Brian Cashman for not just unloading him, but getting a (when healthy) ace starter in return.

Lofton and Sierra for Dellucci and Garcia is tempting, but that switch would add $2.65 million more in payroll (when Dellucci and Garcia make just $1.55 million combined) and aged the team by 17 years, never mind the headaches that would result from trying to convince Kenny Lofton that he's going to spend his season on the bench (remember, I had Nick at DH, Bernie in left and Matsui in CF). Doesn't seem worth it for a modest improvement in the bench.

Some of you might be tempted to take Heredia over Rincon. Rincon, after all, is five years older and has had the advantage of pitching in the whatever-they're-calling-it-now Oakland Coliseum. After taking another look at theirsplits, I wouldn't even consider it.

In fact, there's not another switch on that list that I'd make.

Let's take one last look at these teams side by side (mind the gap):

Pos

Fantasy

Reality

1B

Nick Johnson

Jason Giambi

2B

Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano

SS

Miguel Tejada

Derek Jeter

3B

Derek Jeter

Aaron Boone

C

Jorge Posada

Jorge Posada

RF

Vlad Guerrero

Gary Sheffield

CF

Hideki Matsui

Kenny Lofton

LF

Bernie Williams

Hideki Matsui

DH

Jason Giambi

Bernie Williams

PH (vs. R)

Karim Garcia

Ruben Seirra

PH (vs. L)

Juan Rivera

Tony Clark

Other

David Dellucci

Miguel Cairo

IF

Rey Sanchez

Enrique Wilson

C

Todd Pratt

John Flaherty

SP1

Mike Mussina

Mike Mussina

SP2

Andy Pettitte

Javier Vazquez

SP3

Kelvim Escobar

Kevin Brown

SP4

Jose Contreras

Jose Contreras

SP5

Jon Lieber

Jon Lieber

Closer

Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera

R

LaTroy Hawkins

Tom Gordon

L

Ricardo Rincon

Felix Heredia

R

Steve Karsay

Steve Karsay

L

Gabe White

Gabe White

R

Jeff Weaver

Paul Quantrill

Taking a look at the teams as a whole, the Dream Team has a better bench, a better line-up, and a much improved defense. One could argue that the bullpens are about even (though the 2004 Yankees don't have a lefty-killer like Rincon, nor do they have an innings-eater like Weaver to rest the pen in blowouts or to make emergency starts). Likewise, the actual 2004 team could be said to have a better rotation, with Vazquez and Brown replacing Pettitte and Escobar. Certainly if age and injury weren't an issue with Brown I'd agree hands down.

It should be noted that in creating the Dream Team, I had to make a choice between making a move in the rotation now and losing Nick or Sori, or holding on to the two players that I saw as the future of the franchise and going with a more modest rotation in the hope of signing Vazquez following the 2004 season. I chose the latter. The Yankees chose the former. Both are risky moves, though I believe both have their merits. The Yankees found out they could get Vazquez, something that would not have been a sure thing next winter, and seized the opportunity. Certainly, a pitcher of the kind Vazquez appears to be is more valuable to a well-stocked championship-caliber team than a 1B/DH-type like even the best-case future version of Nick Johnson would be. My gamble rested on the fact that the Yankees could have had both. The Yankees gamble rests on the fact that Vazquez will be one of the top five pitchers in the league and that Nick Johnson will not turn into Ted Williams.

Anyway, that extinguishes the Yankee Hot Stove, as far as I'm concerned. And retires the Dream Team concept until November. I'll let you make the final call as to which team is better, for 2004 or for the future of the franchise. Meanwhile, I'll go back to fretting about third base.

--------------------------------------------------More fun with Age and Salary (serioulsy, does anyone have a solution to this gap thing or a better table code?):

More scrap for the 3B heap

The Yankees have another third baseman under contract, and this one's even less useful than the others. It's Maels Rodriguez's co-defector Yobel Duenas. Check out Shawn Bernard's informatively pessimistic post over at The Greatest Game for details.

Meanwhile,the Mike Lamb deal is now official (the release of Drew Henson having cleared a spot on the 40-man).

As for Boone and his Tuesday surgery, MLB.com has some words from Boone about it, but no official diagnosis. Best it provides is the following:

[Boone] knows that his ACL is torn, though the extent of the injury won't be known until the arthroscopic surgery is performed.

"They have an idea of what it is, so they'll fix it up on Tuesday," Boone said.

Well, that clears things up.

On an unrelated note, after some connectivity issues, Fabian over at Minor Yankee Blog is back in action (and back on my blog roll to the left). Give him a read.