New Hampshire Primary Source covers breaking and behind-the-scenes news and analysis on all things political in the Granite State. John DiStaso is the most experienced political writer in New Hampshire and has been writing a weekly column since 1982. The column posts at 5 a.m. Thursdays, with updates throughout the week.

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FORRESTER CAMPAIGN OPTIMISTIC. State Sen. Jeanie Forrester’s gubernatorial campaign strategist is upbeat about her chances in the upcoming GOP primary.

Despite a tendency by pundits and the media to portray it as a two-person race between Executive Councilor Chris Sununu and Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, the Forrester camp is excited about a new internal poll it says shows her tied with Gatsas and within striking distance of Sununu, with a large bloc of likely primary voters undecided.

Dennehy writes that the campaign recently conducted an internal survey of 2,850 likely primary voters which showed Sununu leading the race with 26 percent, with Gatsas at 13 percent, Forrester at 12 percent and state Rep. Frank Edelblut at 5 percent. The poll showed 44 percent of likely voters undecided. Since the poll had a margin of error of 1.8 percent, Forrester is in a virtual tie with Gatsas in a race that is only beginning to gain attention.

Dennehy declined to identify the pollster.

Dennehy’s memo says that Forrester is showing “an upward trajectory as voters learn about her conservative values and vision or New Hampshire.” It notes in May, Forrester received 7 percent in a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll and that she received 9 percent in a July WMUR Granite State Poll in July.

The memo also notes that Sununu drew 44 percent in the Franklin Pierce poll and 29 percent in the WMUR Granite State Poll in July. Dennehy writes that the internal poll shows Sununu with “near 100 percent name ID,” and he writes that “26 percent on the ballot is rather weak."

Dennehy also contends that Gatsas “is not connecting” because after polling at 22 percent in July, “Our survey represents a dramatic drop in the last month.”

Gatsas and Sununu have begun airing television ads, and Edelblut is set to begin airing an ad on Wednesday. It is unclear if Forrester has plans to air television advertising, but Dennehy wrote that she “has run a lean and mean grassroots operation – talking directly to voters, holding town hall meetings across the state and unveiling several conservative policy plans so voters know what to expect when she is elected governor.”

“With 44 percent undecided Jeanie is in the best position to gain,” Dennehy writes, insisting “we will peak at the exact time we need to: Election Day, September 13.”

(The full Aug. 11 New Hampshire Primary Source follows. A new column will appear on Thursday, Aug. 25.)

(Thursday, Aug. 11)

PARTYING WITH MITT. Sen. Kelly Ayotte continues to find herself in a tough spot regarding the top of her ticket. What should she do about Donald Trump? Should she pull a Susan Collins and cut him loose?

So far, Ayotte has been distancing herself from the presidential nominee while being harshly critical when she feels he goes too far – as she did after Trump lashed out at Khazir Khan.

Ayotte labeled as "inappropriate" Trump’s controversial comments this week about “the Second Amendment people” possibly being the only ones capable of stopping Hillary Clinton from appointing liberal judges if she is elected president.

Trump’s critics say he was inciting violence against Clinton. Trump supporters say he was referring to the possibility of pro-Second Amendment voters taking out their frustrations against Clinton at the ballot box.

Even before the “Second Amendment people” comments, Collins, a progressive Maine Republican senator, announced on Monday that she will not vote for Trump because he “does not reflect historical Republican values nor the inclusive approach to governing that is critical to healing the divisions in our country.”

Collins is in a much less politically volatile position than Ayotte, having won re-election easily two years ago.

Ayotte certainly can’t afford to alienate the 100,000 New Hampshire voters who powered Trump to victory in the February primary.

At the same time, she can’t alienate the establishment Republican faction of the state, either.

Which it’s why it’s interesting that, as New Hampshire Primary Source has learned, less than a week after Trump endorsed Ayotte, she will be the guest of honor at a fundraiser in the Lakes Region on Friday night hosted by Mitt Romney, one of the top “Never Trumpers” and poster boy for the GOP establishment.

What’s it mean? So far, Ayotte is playing this about as well as can be expected under the circumstances.

As one New Hampshire GOP strategist put it, “Donald Trump is an unscripted candidate who is sometimes undisciplined. But he is the Republican nominee, and if he can become more focused he can make this a very competitive race against Hillary Clinton.”

Ayotte, the strategist noted, earlier this year was ranked the seventh most bipartisan member of the Senate for 2015.

“She has a history of standing up to members of her own party when she thinks they are wrong and no doubt will call out a President Trump or Clinton when she thinks they are wrong,” the strategist said.

DAY READIES RUN. Conservative activist and Ayotte critic Aaron Day is gearing up for an independent run for the U.S. Senate by taking the next big step toward an official general election candidacy.

Day tells New Hampshire Primary Source that he and a group of supporters on Wednesday finished delivering to city and town halls throughout the state far more than the necessary 3,000 nomination papers to have his name appear on the general election ballot.

Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan explained that Wednesday was the deadline for candidates who want to run for office as independents to file their nomination papers with the supervisors of the checklist in each city and town.

Candidates for statewide office must submit 3,000 papers – 1,500 in each congressional district. Candidates for the U.S. House are required to file 1,500 papers in the congressional district in which he or she wants to run.

All checklist supervisors must certify the nomination papers by the end of business on Aug. 31. Candidates will then retrieve the nomination papers and must deliver them to the Secretary of State’s Office by 5 p.m. on Sept. 7.

Officials at that office then count the nomination papers to be sure that the candidates have the required number of nomination papers certified.

Anyone who objects to any of the nomination papers filed with the Secretary of State’s Office must file those objections by the end of the day on Sept. 12. Within a few days after that, the Secretary of State’s Office will certify the candidates who are eligible to appear on the general election ballot as independents or third party candidates.

We’ve learned that the state Republican Party wants to inspect all nomination papers submitted not only by Day, but also by third party presidential candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and other independent candidates for various offices.

“We are following the law to ensure that all signatures meet the proper requirements,” NHGOP Chair Jennifer Horn said.

Day views it as an attempt to keep him off the ballot to help Ayotte.

But he says he’s sure he’ll achieve ballot status “unless there is corruption.”

THE AD WARS BEGIN. As WMUR.com first reported on Tuesday evening, Republican Executive Councilor Chris Sununu released the first TV campaign ad of the governor’s race, followed on Wednesday morning by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas. Sununu’s ad began airing on Wednesday; Gatsas’ ad will be on the air beginning Friday morning.

Sununu’s camp says it is making a “substantial introductory buy” for the remainder of this week and next week on New Hampshire broadcast stations, as well as on the Fox News Channel cable network.

As of Wednesday evening, though, Sununu had plunked down only $10,000 on Fox News in the Boston/Manchester, Burlington/Plattsburgh and Portland markets, and about $4,000 on broadcast stations, according to Federal Communications Commission records.

Gatsas had yet to place his buy, but his campaign promises that it is planning to spend about $500,000 in coming weeks leading to the Sept. 13 primary.

NEW NH TRUMP SPOKESMAN. The Trump campaign in New Hampshire has a new communications director. Corey Custer arrived in New Hampshire this week after working on the campaign as upstate New York field director during the New York primary campaign. He has coordinated Trump campaign ground operations in five states.

GOP DAY OF ACTION. While the Democratic will bring vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine to the state on Saturday, Republicans are planning a “day of action” to canvass on behalf of Trump, Ayotte and the entire GOP ticket. Plans call for canvassing in Bedford, Concord, Conway, Derry, Hampstead, Hampton, Manchester, Nashua, Rochester and Salem.

EMILY’s LIST ENDORSEMENTS. In addition to making endorsements at the top of the Democratic ticket, the pro-choice group EMILY’s List is backing Democratic state Senate candidates Peggy Gilmour in District 12 and Alexis Simpson in District 23. The Senate has 14 Republican and 10 Democratic members.

ASHOOH ENDORSEMENTS. Rockingham County Commissioner Tom Tombarello, Merrimack Town Councilor Bill Boyd and former New Hampshire House Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry Mock of Jackson top the list of the latest round of endorsements for Republican 1st District U.S. House candidate Rich Ashooh. View the full list here.

CLOSE-UP. This week on “CloseUP,” WMUR political reporter Adam Sexton’s guests will include two candidates for governor – former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, a Democrat, and state Rep. Frank Edelblut of Wilmot, a Republican. The program airs on Sunday at 10 a.m.