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Community Projection: Yuniesky Betancourt

143 of you have spoken, and Yuniesky Betancourt is apparently going to experience deja vu this season. I’d imagine that his projection will look closer to his 2006 season line than any other projection we end up doing. Take a look at this:

4 more at-bats, 1 more double, 6 more walks, 2 more hit by pitches, and 5 more strikeouts, but other than that, it’s the exact same line. I’ve been spearheading the “Betancourt has essentially maxed out his skillset” argument for the past six months or so, and while I agree with the general sentiment that there’s not much room for growth, I didn’t mean that he’s literally going to just repeat last year over and over.

ill take that every year if he can continue to gobble up baseballs like….i dont know, something that gobbles a lot

DKCecil on
February 13th, 2007 10:19 pm

I see a slight bit more power out of him, in exchange for a couple of hits. Otherwise, I don’t see where the improvement or decrease in production would come from.

IdahoInvader on
February 13th, 2007 10:28 pm

He’s a marvel to watch at ss. But it would be nice if he learned it won’t kill him to lay off the first two pitches if neither is in the strike zone.

kentroyals5 on
February 13th, 2007 10:41 pm

Obviously, Im not a baseball player, but how hard is it to be more disciplined at the plate for a young player? Some of the greatest hitters never swing at first pitches…anyone have any idea on how ‘teaching betancourt to take some pitches’ could be done.

Adam S on
February 13th, 2007 11:03 pm

In terms of standard deviation, does Betancourt have the closest set of projections of the players we’ve done. The OPS difference between high and consensus is only .082. It would be great if he could somehow learn to walk 50 times per season, but I don’t see that happening.

1: Yuni definitely has the edge over Jolbert
2: Yuni has the edge because Young appears to have a specially-designed glove that’s magnetically opposed to finding the ball.
3: Yuni has the edge because the majority of his bones are fully intact.

frenchonion on
February 14th, 2007 8:57 am

It’s hard to forecast Yuni because I don’t feel very certain that I know his actual age. The forecast predicts that he’s peaked, which means his bottom end career projection would be about that of Felix Fermin.

Well, I came up with this thesis long before PECOTA came out, but the projection systems that compare him with similar players agree with me – he posted a .252 EqA last year, and it has his EqA for the next 5 years being .251, .255, .253, .251, and .253.

This kind of player peaks early.

chrisisasavage on
February 14th, 2007 9:07 am

I think Dave was saying that he is a slap hitter who legs out most of his hits, and gets a majority of his value from his speed and defense, and his type of player/skillset usually peaks early (24-26) relative to the league. Think Pokey Reese.

chrisisasavage on
February 14th, 2007 9:12 am

There are exceptions though. Julio Franco was essentially the same player early in his career, but developed more power as he lost his speed.

Calderon on
February 14th, 2007 9:23 am

Age questions can largely be ruled out thanks to Homeland Security. Go check out your local little league in the United States and you can see plenty age fraud cases with forged birth certificates.

Yuni projects to be ranked with some of the all-time great Latin shortstops. He’s better than Aparicio and Dave Concepcion, and could be better than Vizquel.

Here are examples of great Latin shortsops that performed well at the start of their careers and didn’t start declining after their second full season in the majors.

There are exceptions to everything. Betancourt could become Barry Larkin – his #5 PECOTA comp – and I wouldn’t be shocked. We just shouldn’t expect it.

Eugene on
February 14th, 2007 10:23 am

Dave, in the past you made a good argument for why you wouldn’t trade YB for Tejada straight up. In terms of the total package (offensive and defensive contributions, as well as contract), how would you rank YB among current shortstops?

Yuni projects to be ranked with some of the all-time great Latin shortstops. Heâ€™s better than Aparicio and Dave Concepcion, and could be better than Vizquel.

I don’t know where you’re getting this, but it’s just not true. Betancourt’s a huge ground-ball hitter, and those guys don’t develop the kind of gap power even that you’re looking for. If he starts to put the ball in the air, becoming a different hitter entirely, well, maybe.

Calderon – you’re completely ignoring what sort of hitters these guys are. That Yuni’s Latin is irrelevant. His skill set (put the ball on the ground and run like the wind) is entirely unlike those other guys you mentioned.

In terms of the total package (offensive and defensive contributions, as well as contract), how would you rank YB among current shortstops?

Contract is a big part of it. He’s essentially a league average shortstop who won’t make any real money for a couple of years, and that’s really valuable. In terms of trade value, without looking into it with too much depth, Betancourt would rank behind Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, and Hanley Ramirez among major league shortstops, and that’s about it.

terry on
February 14th, 2007 10:51 am

Betancourtâ€™s contact-and-run skill set peaks a lot earlier than that of a tall, thin power hitter.

I’m curious about how body type fits into all of this. At this point, most of the 5 systems are roughly similarly accurate an average but Pecota probably is at the forefront of projecting 4 years into the future(it’s one of the things I think that the people at BP are proud of). Pecota doesn’t factor in body type though-at least not directly (or if I’m mistaken, body type certainly isn’t one of the main criteria).

As Derek notes, PECOTA does incorporate body type, and multiple studies have found that it’s quite important. If Betancourt was 6’3, this would be another story – he’d have room to add weight to his body without becoming pudgy, and the potential for additional power would be significantly higher.

Basically, Betancourt’s small frame and extreme groundball tendencies limit his power potential, and his general approach at the plate limits his on base potential. His offensive value is going to be solely derived by hitting a lot of singles, and there’s just not a lot of room for growth in that category.

Trev on
February 14th, 2007 11:25 am

In terms of trade value, without looking into it with too much depth, Betancourt would rank behind Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, and Hanley Ramirez among major league shortstops, and thatâ€™s about it.

Basically, all these guys are 25-40 runs better with the Bat than Yuni, and defensive metrics have them as average/slightly below average (not more than -10 runs below). If you believe Yuni is +20 runs above average with the glove, he’s still short by nearly a win.

Ok, I realize that Betancourt is under club control for 5 more years, and the others are only locked up for 4, 1, and 2 years respectively. But getting +10 runs above average from your SS over a shorter period of time is better than 5 years at average.

Bill Hall is no longer a shortstop – the Brewers are moving him to the outfield. If you’re going to include guys who theoretically could play shorstop, might as well throw A-Rod into the mix.

Carlos Guillen has one year left on his deal, then is a free agent, and the Tigers are already talking about moving him to first base. If you’d trade Betancourt for Guillen straight up, you’d be hurting your franchise.

Edgar Renteria is one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. He’s a worse player than Betancourt, not even counting the contract status.

Jhonny Peralta’s 2005 season was a career year. And he’s lousy with the glove.

I can’t even justify a response to Jason Bartlett. I hope that was a joke.

Also, this:

But getting +10 runs above average from your SS over a shorter period of time is better than 5 years at average.

Not true.

Eugene on
February 14th, 2007 11:45 am

Hall’s an interesting case, although he’s not really a shortstop anymore. He almost seems to have had a rapid onset of old player skills.

Trev on
February 14th, 2007 11:47 am

All I’m saying is that Betancourt’s top 10 (upper-third) instead of top 5 for SS by “trade value”.

$$$/win isn’t linear. It’s exponential. You’d pay more $$$/win for a 5 win player that a 3 win player. At some point, you pure performance does matter over performance/salary. Since we’ve agreed that Yuni’s performance isn’t likely to increase over his next 5 years, then there will be players whose performance is worth paying extra for over that short time period.

I wouldn’t say Hall has old player skills – lightning fast bat, low walk totals, decent batting average. Those aren’t old player skills. Troy Glaus has old player skills. Adam Dunn has old player skills.

Bill Hall’s just an aggressive hitter with some serious batspeed who strikes out a lot.

$$$/win isnâ€™t linear. Itâ€™s exponential. Youâ€™d pay more $$$/win for a 5 win player that a 3 win player. At some point, you pure performance does matter over performance/salary. Since weâ€™ve agreed that Yuniâ€™s performance isnâ€™t likely to increase over his next 5 years, then there will be players whose performance is worth paying extra for over that short time period.

While the theory is true, 10 runs for one or two years is not worth a full time, league average player making nothing for an entire season. It’s just not.

It may not be linear, but you’re talking $340K per win, none of those guys come close to that, even taking non-linearity of $/win into account.

Trev on
February 14th, 2007 12:10 pm

Going off of one season of Dial’s numbers, most of these guys aren’t atrocious with the glove. When you’ve got an 82-win team, having an average SS doesn’t improve the team. (Having an underpaid average SS does free resources to use elsewhere.)

Ok, the problem with all of this is that there needs to be a definition of “team” that is trading Betancourt for X shortstop. If we use the M’s, then they’re an 82-win team w/ Betancourt, and if they were close to making the playoffs, they’d be willing to spend “over budget” to do so (we hope).

Betancourt’s value to the M’s is that he’s average production for under-average price. The guys you listed (Ramirez, Reyes, Drew) are above-average production for under-average price. All I’m saying is that there are guys who perform above-average and cost above average, and that at a certain point it makes sense to trade Betancourt for one of them.

Should we trade Betancourt now? No. We’re an 82 win team. Getting 2+ wins isn’t worth the value over Betancourt. But if we’re an 87 or 89 win team, paying more to get 2 wins over Betancourt is going to be worth it. If the M’s had made some different moves over the offseason and were an “87 win team”, then yes, trading Betancourt for Guillen might be worth it.

Going off of one season of Dialâ€™s numbers, most of these guys arenâ€™t atrocious with the glove. When youâ€™ve got an 82-win team, having an average SS doesnâ€™t improve the team. (Having an underpaid average SS does free resources to use elsewhere.)

Going off Dial’s numbers, Betancourt’s not very good defensively. We know better. Renteria and Peralta suck at shortstop.

All Iâ€™m saying is that there are guys who perform above-average and cost above average, and that at a certain point it makes sense to trade Betancourt for one of them.

It’s a balancing act – if the difference in cost far exceeds the difference in performance, then it doesn’t. And for all the guys you listed, the difference in cost is far removed from the difference in value.

But if weâ€™re an 87 or 89 win team, paying more to get 2 wins over Betancourt is going to be worth it. If the Mâ€™s had made some different moves over the offseason and were an â€œ87 win teamâ€, then yes, trading Betancourt for Guillen might be worth it.

No, it wouldn’t. At best, you’re looking at something like a 30 run advantage for Guillen over Betancourt in 2007. It’s probably closer to 20 runs, but whatever, we’ll go with 30 just for fun. 30 runs, in a season where you’re contending, are probably worth something like $15 million, according to most of the work that’s been done on the value of wins, even non-linear win formulas.

Factoring in the time value of money, Betancourt would probably need to create about $20 million in value over the next four years for it to no longer be a good idea to trade him for Guillen, assuming the M’s were a contender.

The going rate for a league average SS is about $9 million. So, we’ll say $36 million over four years, approximately (see Lugo, Julio). Betancourt is under contract for 2007 and 2008 for a total of about $1.5 million. He’ll then be arbitration eligible in 2009 and 2010, where we should expect him to earn about $4 million and $6 million in those years, respectively.

Total cost for four years of Betancourt: $11.5 million or so. Total value: $36 million or so. Value: $25 million.

There’s no way that Carlos Guillen’s 20-30 run advantage in 2007 is worth $25 million.

Calderon on
February 14th, 2007 12:41 pm

Ralph Malph,

you are correct. I messed up on the comps there.

If there are always exceptions to the rule, then Betancourt will be one of those exceptions in my opinion. Body-type shouldn’t be a negative for Betancourt because he pulls the ball for his power. I won’t be surprised
when Yuni also increases his homerun output next year.

I wouldnâ€™t say Hall has old player skills – lightning fast bat, low walk totals, decent batting average. Those arenâ€™t old player skills. Troy Glaus has old player skills.

And Troy Glaus played 8 games at short last season.

joser on
February 14th, 2007 3:07 pm

And Troy Glaus played 8 games at short last season.

Not by choice.

Mat on
February 14th, 2007 3:07 pm

I canâ€™t even justify a response to Jason Bartlett. I hope that was a joke.

PECOTA has Bartlett at 7 runs better as a hitter. Bartlett has pretty good range, but poor throwing mechanics that tend to make his throws erratic. All told, I’d say he’s probably about average on defense, maybe a touch below. The going rate for premium defenders tends to be 20 runs above average, right? That comes out to a difference between Betancourt and Bartlett of about 13-15 runs in Yuniesky’s favor or something like that.

In long-term value, I’ll give you that Bartlett seems like a guy who’ll have two or three good seasons and then fade quickly, while Betancourt will probably be about what he is for 4-5 years, maybe more.

I guess maybe you think that’s a big enough difference that it doesn’t justify a response. In the realm of things that are mentioned in the comments, I suppose I don’t see it as totally crazy.

If I recall correctly, no one thought it was a good idea at the time, not even John Gibbons, and it was his idea.

I liked it, though. The Jays had such an extreme flyball pitching staff (aside from Halladay) that shortstop defense really didn’t matter that much, and playing Glaus at short allowed them to replace Russ Adams in the lineup with Gregg Zaun. That’s a huge upgrade with the bat.