Why is Loudoun County considering spending a fortune on rail? Proponents claim it will bring business to our county. But at what cost? What will happen to property taxes? How much debt will Loudoun incur? What is Loudoun’s part in subsidizing WMATA? These questions cannot be answered yet as the needed information, for an informed decision, does not yet exist.

The eye-popping figure of $2.5B to $3.5B is the price for a commuter line to Loudoun with stations at Dulles Airport, Old Ox Rd. and Ryan Rd which is only Part II of the program.

Who currently owns properties that will benefit most from these public infrastructure upgrades? Moorefield Station will be zoned for 1500 units without rail. With rail, it will be zoned for 6000 units. The people of Loudoun are being used to finance these capital improvements. Normally a tax district for such public works is established so that those who benefit the most will bear some of the burden directly. York and some on the BOS prefer instead to cut from one program so that he can the throw this venture’s costs onto the back of the Loudoun taxpayer. The figure may grow if union set asides are not rejected. Yet, with all these unanswered questions and no tax district, Chairman York claims this is good for Loudoun?

The debt service for WMATA is currently unknown. Wolf has called for an audit, the report is due in May. York is resolved to give WMATA Loudoun’s buy-in by July despite not knowing what will be our share of this debt burden or its size? The MD-DC-VA Metro system is 35 years old, it is falling apart, the reports of escalators failing and trains breaking down are but the tip of the iceberg. The BOS does not know the overhaul cost of the system. The BOS should not sign on until after the price tag has been explained and the public been given time to determine if the service is worth the price. On April 17th WMATA makes a presentation at 7PM to the BOS to address some, but not all of the issues. Public input follows in May and a vote has to happen by July? The rush is reminiscent of the CBPO boondoggle, where York jumped ship.

If Loudoun has to raise $300M in bonds to pay for its share of the Silver Line costs, it will cost $17M per year to service the bond, assuming a 30-year bond at 5%. Such a bond would lead to a two cent hike in the property tax. The total price tag could be far higher. Currently bond service is divorced from ridership for all of Metro. With a population of 310,000, Loudoun does not have enough potential rail commuter demand to justify all these potential expenses. Currently, Fairfax subsidizes the cost of the rail lines to the tune of $0.58 for every dollar spent. Given Fairfax has 1.1M people, it is likely the Loudoun subsidy will need to be far higher. York, who claims this is a good idea, has not yet exercised proper due diligence in this matter. MD-DC-VA-Metro rail has been a money pit since its inception. How is Loudoun’s joining that failed venture a good idea? How is an increased tax burden going to bring business to Loudoun?

Driving the Dulles Toll road, you can see office buildings on both sides of the road from Tysons to Reston to Herndon. Loudoun has become the bedroom community for Fairfax. The Dulles corridor was built up without the help of a rail line. In Reston town center you will find bus stops, but no train station. Rail is coming to Reston and Herndon. First came the roads, then the office buildings, the town center business parks and the restaurants and shops to service these enterprises. Then comes the rail. This robust development is the result of professional community planning that is logical, has vision, and adds the most expensive elements once there is a business base in place to shoulder the cost.

We are 20 years behind Fairfax because, under Chairman York, the BOS’s engaged in unprofessional and unpredictable community planning. First came the homes without roads. Then came the Democrat-dominated board in 2007, that was actively hostile to business. These Democrats were publicly endorsed by Chairman York. This last board raised business taxes, resulting in a loss of businesses in Loudoun. With the business community collapsing, the York protegees decided that the most pressing business was to enact the Chesapeake Bay Preservation Ordinance? Today you can see where the Fairfax County border is on VA28 and US50 very clearly. It is where the office buildings and business parks suddenly end. Such is the legacy of York’s leadership the past 12+ years as Chairman of the BOS.

Will York stop the current rush to Rail? First Loudoun needs some solid community planning, a business friendly climate, and a professional, predictable process for business development. When the Greenway from Dulles to Leesburg begins to resemble the Toll Road corridor between Reston and Herndon, and when VA28 north of Dulles has the office density that one sees in Chantilly, then it will be time to consider Metro rail. Right now, Mr. York, that consideration is still years away.

Comments

Written by Cathymac/Loudoun Lady about 5 years ago.

As the “Wealthiest County in the Country” we are being viewed at as a cash cow for a failing system, first it was Fairfax – now Loudoun.

I am still amazed that an all republican Board is looking to finance additional debt to meet uncertain financial obligations that they have zero control over. As a party we rail (pun intended) against debt and unfunded mandates, but we are going to enact them locally as what – an experiment?

During the campaign I heard over and over, from every BOS candidate, that we needed to expand our commercial tax page to take the onus off of the backs of homeowners. Not once did a candidate add “and the only way to do that is with rail in Loudoun”. Now we are being told that we will have 70 years of economic darkness (famine and locusts too!) if Rail is not passed.

I have yet to meet even ONE republican in Loudoun who supports this ridiculous project. This project will increase traffic as 30,000 per day leave the toll road for Rt7 and Rt 28 because of increased tolls (per their own study) and will increase taxes that the 99% will have to pay so that less than 1% can ride it! The only republicans in Loudoun who support this disaster are on the Board of Supervisors! When we voted them into office we thought all nine were fiscal conservatives. That’s what they told us. We were fooled, big time. In Fairfax republicans on the BOS are staunchly opposed to phase II, just as we would expect. But that is no so in Loudoun.

If the problem is that the developers want changes in zoning laws, why can’t the board give them what they want without the metro? Change the zoning laws and allow them to cram in more condos, apartments, and townhouses, without sticking us with the bills for metro. Of course that means we will all have higher property taxes to pay for the extra services that all those people will need, schools, sewers, fire and rescue, police, etc. But that will still be cheaper than a change in zoning AND being on the hook for metro forever as it deteriorates and needs more and more costly repairs and replacements.

Just say no to higher tolls, higher taxes, and higher traffic! Stand up for the 99% who will never ride metro and who don’t want to fund this mess forever!

Of course it does, Jacob, that’s the way this mess has been put together from the beginning. It’s your governmental masters telling you what’s good for you. Metro contractors and head honchos will make out great, along with the developers around the Metro stops, while the rest of us pay ridiculous tolls and higher taxes for it all. Why a 9-0 Republican BOS would support this seems to make no sense until you realize that most Loudoun Republicans really aren’t all that conservative fiscally, they’re just tools of the local builder crowd.

I have to repeat, this is a 9-0 LCRC Board of Supervisors looking to lock us into a DC-oriented bureaucratic big government nightmare that will drive up our taxes and tolls. Put the myth of the LCRC being “conservative” to rest permanently if this goes through.

Written by ACTivist about 5 years ago.

Excellent post! I would like you all to meet an ex-Navy friend of mine who was looking for a venue to “spill his guts”. I anticipate many more articles of this caliber as Aramis is quite intelligent and thought provoking with many a great idea and savvy to all things. Welcome, Aramis!

Written by ACTivist about 5 years ago.

I only know 2 on the BOS that are conservative–Delgaudio and Volpe, who show by their votes, that they know what is going on. I did have hopes for Janet but I see that that isn’t working out too well. I have been giving them the benefit but this Metro deal will be the make it or break it with these board members. Then it is time for pitchforks, tar, feathers and, of course, RAILS! (pun way intended)

I think Reid actually sees this for what is it. A huge transfer of wealth from the tax payer to a few people who own the property near the proposed rail stations on Old Ox and Ryan Rd.

Written by Vieslava about 5 years ago.

Investing in WMATA by Loudoun is like purchasing an expensive vacation beach house and being able to use it only one week every other year, or less. Expensive luxury to purchase and to maintain, but underutilized.

Most people in Loudoun will not be able to use the Metro even if they’d like to due to time constraints or inconvenience.
The only way Loudouners will use the Metro is if using Metro:
1) costs them less than commuting by car
2) saves them more time than commuting by car
3) costs less AND saves more time than commuting by car
4) is as convenient or more convenient than commuting by car

Unless at least one or two of those conditions is satisfied, no one is going to use Metro just because it was built and Loudoun BOS would like as many people as possible to use it. Life does not work like that. Cost vs. benefits.

Written by Barbara Munsey about 5 years ago.

Aramis, I think the 1500 number may be too low for the Moorefield rail triggers–you’re correct that it tops out for rail, but I think it’s closer to starting with 2500 with no improvements at all other than connecting it to existing roadways.

Written by Vieslava about 5 years ago.

Fairfax County voted on the Metro, although Fairfax has different population density and higher demand for the Metro:

I am a devoted rail fan. I have been known to sit for hours beside railroad tracks on the Great Plains just to get photos of a hotshot BNSF or UP freight. I have ridden rails and subway systems all across the world and have patronized many an American scenic railway using the old fashioned passenger equipment and locomotives. I have even helped to pay for the restoration of an old steam locomotive in Wisconsin. I rode the last trolley car in D.C. I was present early in the morning when that big Southern steam loco was brought to the Museum of American History (the thing nearly fell over out on the street). I also have a basement full of model railroad and have read the history of rail passenger service, light and heavy, from the beginning to Amtrak. You can classify me as an authentic railroad nut.

But one thing in the Aramis post struck me right between the eyes: Metro is now 35 years old. To me that means that a big bill may be right around the corner for major refurbishment and replacement of infrastructure and equipment. Unlike the US Navy, where tough budget cuts are met by mothballing ageing ships or sending them to the scrapping yard, Metro cannot cut costs by reducing equipment or frequency of service without a significant travel disruption. They have to replace equipment and pay for that through taxpayer money and increased fares. Metro, in fact, is in the process of proposing a fare increase as we speak.

The train lover in me cheers the idea of another passenger train service. But, when I see stories of escalators out of service, of brakes falling off rail cars, of the need for increased police presence on trains, of single-tracking because of technical glitches and train driver error, and of the potential Loudoun share of a rail system which will give us a single line and just two stations, my wallet starts to scream “Whoa there, train lover! This is beginning to look like another Amtrak with hands constantly digging into the taxpayers’ pockets for equipment and operational subsidies. Take the bus, fool!”