06 June 2013 10:11 AM

Syria: A Cabinet Divided

By Tim Shipman

It is increasingly clear that David Cameron is intent on sending military aid to the rebels in Syria.
The EU arms embargo has been lifted, the case has been made that Bashar al Assad has deployed chemical weapons on at least six occasions.
I understand that Ministers believe the area where we can best assist the opposition is to offer military training, rather than - say - mortars and ground to air missiles, which they can get from Gulf Arab states, and which hold far greater 'blowback' perils.
But unlike Libya, where Mr Cameron's fervour and the urgency of the situation won the day, conversations with approaching a dozen ministers and aides have made clear that the Cabinet is far from convinced.
At least six senior ministers on the National Security Council raised concerns about handing over weapons to the opposition fighters when the issue was last discussed more than a month ago.
It is little wonder that there are doubts. Cabinet sources say it could take 18 months of arming rebels to force Assad to the negotiating table – a bleak assessment which means Britain faces being sucked into a longterm military commitment in the world’s most combustible region.

So where do ministers stand?

THE HAWKS
David Cameron, Prime Minister
Convinced by intervention in Libya that Britain can steer events, the Prime Minister also 'got religion' on Syria when he visited Jordan last year, an ally of
Britain that is inundated with refugees and facing internal strife as a consequence. ‘David got a taste for it in Libya and he thinks something must be done,’ said one source familiar with the discussions.

William Hague, Foreign Secretary
Has come to the view that peace talks to resolve the crisis are ‘doomed to fail’ and is keen that plans be drawn up for military assistance to the rebels.
‘We have to prepare for the failure of diplomacy,’ a senior Whitehall source said. ‘We will try to make it work but there is little hope that it will.’
Mr Hague and Mr Cameron have begun holding private meetings with MPs to convince them that they should support arming the rebels. Mr Hague argues that failure to act will lead to a regional war sucking in Israel and Iran and fatally destabilise Syria’s neighbours Jordan and Lebanon.

Michael Gove, Education Secretary
Uberhawk whose influence with Mr Cameron on foreign policy issues has given him a strong voice even though his department has no national security role. Gove is a firm supporter of William Hague's view that arming moderate rebels will help the balance in what he sees as a global battle against militant Islamists.

George Osborne, Chancellor
Firm supporter of intervention who is described as 'hand in glove with Cameron' on Syria. The Chancellor does however have a firm grip on the purse strings.

Philip Hammond, Defence Secretary
Wants safeguards to prevent weapons going to al Qaeda sympathisers but has called for contingency plans to be drawn up in the MoD. Aides say he 'hasn't taken a firm view' and 'sees the pros and cons'. He has warned that there are limits to what the Armed Forces can do. Mr Hammond was recently present when backbenchers suggested that the Tory leadership could do with ‘a small war’ to distract attention from party discontent over Europe and gay marriage. ‘It had better be a very small war,’ the Defence Secretary said. But fellow ministers say Mr Hammond is ‘very supportive’ of the Prime Minister’s stance that arms may be necessary and place him firmly in the hawk camp.

THE DOVES
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister
Told the meeting ‘there is no military solution’ to the war and that Britain should not act unless ‘there is a wider political strategy that’s supported by other leading powers, particularly the US’. Clegg is also keen to help the refugees, which leads to a emphasis on humanitarian aid rather than supplying weapons.

Chris Grayling, Justice Secretary
Takes a ‘facts based’ approach and is ‘forensic’ in his analysis according to his fellow ministers. Renowned as one of the tougher right wingers in the Cabinet but on this he has surprised his colleagues by taking a sceptical view.

Justine Greening, International Development Secretary
Expressed scepticism that intervention will do any good and has a departmental interest in stressing the need to provide humanitarian aid to refugees fleeing the war zone rather than military intervention. Aides say she is 'open' to persuasion but do not deny that she voiced doubts in the NSC.

Dominic Grieve, Attorney General
Does not express a personal view in meetings but stresses what is legally sound. Grieve was a key player in pressing Hague and Cameron to seek changes to the EU arms embargo on Syria. Has warned Mr Cameron that he would be on ‘safer ground’ if he secures backing from the United Nations – something that looks impossible since Russia, which has a UN veto, is propping up the regime in Damascus. One source characterised the Attorney General’s interventions as ‘being a bit like someone’s wife, saying: “Why don’t you think about this all the time?”’.
The source said the Prime Minister ‘gets very irritated with Dominic’.

Sayeeda Warsi, Faith Minister
The independent minded minister, who failed to back the government over gay marriage earlier this week, is concerned that the war could lead to a backlash among Muslim communities in Britain and fuel extremism in the UK.

Ken Clarke, Minister without portfolio
The veteran cabinet minister was kept on by David Cameron because he likes to hear the advice of someone who can remember cock ups carried out over a period of four decades. On Syria, observers say Ken's Eeyore tendencies have come to the fore and he warns the PM of the potential downsides of intervention.

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CHAPMAN & CO

The Chapman & Co blog takes you behind the scenes of the Westminster village with Fleet Street's finest political reporting team. Check here for the latest news, analysis, gossip and scandal from the Daily Mail's Political Editor James Chapman, Deputy Political Editor Tim Shipman, Political Correspondents Jason Groves, Kirsty Walker and Gerri Peev and Whitehall Correspondent Daniel Martin.