I am a MA/MBA candidate at the Lauder Institute and the Wharton School of Business. I focus on Russian politics, economics, and demography but also write more generally about Eastern Europe. Please note that all opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone and that I do not speak in an official capacity for Lauder, Wharton, Forbes or any other organization.
I do my best to inject hard numbers (and flashy Excel charts) into conversations and debates that are too frequently driven by anecdotes. In addition to Forbes I've written for True/Slant, INOSMI, Salon, the National Interest, The Moscow Times, Russia Magazine, the Washington Post, and Quartz.
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Sorry Garry Kasparov, You Can't Blame Iraq On Vladimir Putin

When it comes to chess, it’s clear that Garry Kasparov has a first-rate mind: you simply don’t achieve the kind of sustained international success that he did unless you can function at an extremely high intellectual level. When it comes to politics, though, Kasparov has some pretty serious blind spots. In particular, Kasparov is possessed of a personal hatred of Vladimir Putin so seething that it badly compromises his judgement.

As just the latest example of this, Kasparov recently argued that ISIS’ takeover of northern Iraq is actually Vladimir Putin’s fault:

“Somehow I think the [Iraq] problem is connected to the fact that the foundations of global security [have] been shattered by Putin’s unilateral actions…If not for Putin’s aggressive and negative influence, other problems, like Iraq, might be not as highly contested”

There are a lot of things that you can more or less accurately blame Vladimir Putin for. You can very clearly blame him for the takeover of Crimea because such an action would have been impossible without his direct, personal approval. You can, with a little more uncertainty, blame him for the current instability in Eastern Ukraine, where it is clear that the Russian government is, at the absolute least, not doing anything to stop the separatist forces and is likely giving them substantial military and financial assistance. Other things in contemporary Russia that can reasonably be blamed on Putin include the treatment of the political opposition, the campaign to promote “traditional values,” and the lack of progress in serious economic reform.

But how on earth is Vladimir Putin to blame for the actions of Islamist terrorists in another country? Does anyone really think that ISIS fighters, who first rose to prominence fighting against one of Vladimir Putin’s closest regional allies, are actually waiting for cues from Moscow? Is it possible that without the annexation Crimea the ISIS high command, which has been leading a ruthless struggle against “infidels” for the past three years, would have decided that instead of jihad they’d actually organize a beach volleyball tournament?

Kasparov never explained how Putin is to blame for what’s happening in Iraq because it’s an obviously unsupported and unsupportable position. It’s a slogan (“blame Putin!”) more than it is a serious attempt at political analysis. It’s important to push back against this sort of thing not because Putin is a particularly lovable figure, but because such sloppy and undisciplined thinking is bound to end in tragedy. Think of it this way: if you’re willing to blame Putin for the actions of a group like ISIS, which makes little secret of its hatred and contempt for the Russian government and which has explicitly expressed its desire to kill Russian civilians, then you can blame him for everything. Seriously if a bloody Sunni-Shiite conflict in Iraq, a conflict with deep domestic roots, is actually Vladimir Putin’s fault then there isn’t anything in the world that you can’t blame him for. Political instability in Thailand? Putin. A crackdown against pro-democracy activists in Egypt? Also Putin. Growing tensions in the East-China sea? Putin’s to blame for that one, too.

Due in large part to the theatricality with which he plays his part as head of state, Vladimir Putin often appears larger than life. But while he might want us to think that he’s some kind of superhero, the simple fact is that he’s just a human being with all of the usual human weaknesses and faults. What America needs is more hard-headed and realistic thinking about Putin’s intentions and capabilities. What it does not need is what Garry Kasparov offered it: cheap sloganeering that seeks to blame totally unrelated problems on an unpopular, and therefore highly convenient, scapegoat.

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Contrary to what the article implies, ISIS in Syria is a partial creation of the assad regime and has been fighting for the assad regime, not against it. This is well known by all the FSA and other groups that have been fighting against the assad regime. And many ISIS fighters are from russian controlled areas. So Kasparov may very well have a good point.

Well, one possible way Iraq and Crimea might be connected is the speed with which Moscow seized Crimea. By the time the dust had settled there was nothing the Western powers could do, except say Putin shouldn’t have done that. But the point is, it was a done deal before the U.S. could turn around one of it`s air carriers, not that it would have gone to war over Crimea, but merely putting Putin in check, so to speak, militarily may have stayed or rather stymied Putin`s next move.

One of the most talked about particularities re ISIS is the speed with which they have captured so many Iraqi towns and even cities. It`s almost like they are in a rush to get to Baghdad. Perhaps they noticed how the Western response regarding Crimea was moot after it`s government buildings were already flying the Russian flag while the West was still wiping the sleep from their eyes.

Personally i think the most significant element of the puzzle was not how fast the cities fell, but how fast an army – equipped and trained by USA – fallen to ISIS hands. With all the new weaponry.

USA in Syria got into a stalemate. Their allies failed the fast was and started to loose in positional war. The state of Syria found the countermeasures that allowed them to slowly pushed ISIS and friends out. To oust Assad the USA needed to find a way to quickly and vastly reinforce ISIS with weapons, money, and if possible with soldiers.

But how ? Mass money infusion would be blocked by Congress. Large weaponry transfers would go unnoticed in Google Earth times too. So – how?

The answer is simple. USA weaponry stashes should be moved to ISIS, and then ISIS should be let capturing them. USA kills to birds wit hone stone: reinforces their allies and pretends being victim.

Now just see the public stances made. Saudi – a well known USA ally – warns all the other states from interfering into “internal Iraq affairs”. The invasion of a large armed group from Syria to Iraw is – by Saudis – Iraq’s internal affair. So basically it Saudi said “no one from failing Iraq government should dare to attack ISIS”. John Kerry, on behalf of USA, also warned Syria against attacking ISIS. It is okay – by USA – when ISIS attacks Syria. But it is not acceptable for Syria to strike back. Because there are sons of the bitches, and there are our sons of the bitches.

First of all, to hate somebody wholeheartedly is a serious flaw. When Kasparov is playing his chess, I bet, he is an epitome of being in focus. But, in serious affairs one should be serious. Obviously everything is connected with everything else. I remember the science fiction writing about what happened in 20th century when in 14th century somebody had power to take a simple bee out of causal network…Well, the whole life in the 20th century would take quite a different path. Thus, it is perfectly subversive to state some nonconsequential absurdity as Kasparov is trying to do. Surely, none of the greatest chess players of the past were a good thinkers otherwise. None of them got a Nobel Prize or Fields medal, etc. Kasparov fits the already settled pattern perfectly. When it comes to real life he is just like everybody else, and even below. I am NOT defending Putin by the way …Just an observation of a general nature…

Mr. Kasparov’s stated that what’s going on in Iraq might be tied to “Putin’s aggressive and negative influence”, but Kasparov did not explain how. You take the position that it is not possible that what Kasparov said could be true, and that is an unreasonable position. What Kasparov said could be true, somehow, because the conflict in Iraq is related to the conflict in Syria, and Putin is connected to Syria. I’m not going to speculate on specifics, but instead of dismissing the possibility entirely, it would be more reasonable to suspend your judgment and/or ask Kasparov to explain how the conflict is connected. He might know something that you don’t.

“Does anyone really think that ISIS fighters, who first rose to prominence fighting against one of Vladimir Putin’s closest regional allies, are actually waiting for cues from Moscow?”

I certainly don’t think this.

However, I do believe that Putin is more to blame for the state of affairs in Syria than anyone but Bashar al-Assad himself. ISIS would not have risen to prominence, and its fighters would not be so experienced and capable, if not for the prolonged civil war in Syria that Putin has effectively blocked all attempts for the international community to end.

Your belief is wrong. Syria is a divided along sectarian lines, just like Iraq. The recent events in Syria (and Iraq), show that Syria (and Iraq) can exist as a unified country only as a police state with a dictatorship running the show. USA has been to short sighted to see that in 2003, and also recently in Syria. Putin was right all along in both cases.

If the rapist grew angry and experienced and wounded the woman instead of just and simple rape – then the person most to blame for what happened is that woman, because if not for her prolonged resistance the rapist would not grow so experienced and capable.

Hello, Mark. i remember you had a blog on Russia, but then you said Russia got boring to you and you quit covering them. I am glad to see you back o ntopic, though very sad for the circumstances that called you.

Mark Adomanis, if you are pretend to be an “EXPERT” on Russia, you have to understand that ANY GLOBAL PROBLEMS for the last 100 years, created by RUSSIA, starting in October 1917, when V.Ulyanov ( Lenin ) got ABSOLUTE POWER over entire country, and since that tragic moment “devil” rule the life on Earth .. it cost more than 60 millions life just in Russia, and BECAUSE of Lenin-Stalin actions Hitler in Germany did the same: Got ABSOLUTE POWER. Finally World condemned NAZI… on Nuremberg trials.. BUT WE STILL DON’T DO IT FOR COMMUNISM !!! Even Communistic system in Russia turn into even more dangerous TOTAL POWER OF KGB, and thousands people die in Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, Dagestan and Ukraine !!! It’s SHAME ON YOU THAT YOU DEFEND DICTATOR “PUTLER” when any of his tyrannic action push entire planet into World War – III !!!! I copy my comment and asking you to REPLY TO ME PERSONALLY !

Sergei, being a cinematographer, I can see vividly that you are NOT familiar with your opponent credentials. Here they are Originally hailing from Philadelphia, Mark Adomanis received his undergraduate degree in government at Harvard. In between rowing practices, he managed to study Russian history, foreign policy, and language, though his one big regret is that he never had time to take a Russian literature course. After Harvard, he immediately started a master’s program in Russian and East European Studies at the University of Oxford from which he graduated in 2009. He wrote his master’s thesis on Putin-era healthcare reform and demographic trends and has stayed keyed into Russian health and demographics ever since. Mr. Adomanis works as a management consultant at a small firm in Washington, DC, but he regularly contributes Russia-related writings to a range of outlets such as True/Slant, Salon, Forbes and The National Interest. He’s interested in the bi-lateral US-Russian relationship and has written extensively on the “reset.” If Harvard and Oxford are just empty words for you, I am sorry…

Wrong Forbes. Adolf V Putin is working overtime in Libya, Iraq, Iran and Syria. He is fomenting deceit and murder and instability in these countries to deflect attention of him and his antics in Ukraine. Again he is working through sympathetic foreign agents and paid proxies. Divide and conquer. That’s what Adolf is doing. Kasparov is right-on-the-money.

It is first time ever I am observing the top secrets revealed for everybody…:-). And,if this is indeed the case, then these are not secrets at all! They have no value ;-), except for those who love to be engaged in all kinds of gossips non stop trying to be on the top of the opponents who are from the same social level