Three hours ago, if you told me that in the lead-up to the first week of DT finals, the highest scoring player in the competition would be suspended for getting pissed on a Sunday, I would have told you to **** yourself.

But here we are. With qualifying and elimination finals on the horizon, Dane Swan will miss two pivotal games against Sydney and North Melbourne and has left a large portion of coaches sweating in anger. However, to those with a few trades up their sleeves, now is your chance to gain some handy leverage over the competition.

If you are in possession of two or more trades, then I think the right call is to trade him. Being the most expensive player in the competition at $617,900, you can pick from any midfielder you please. Let’s look at some of the main options.

Gary Ablett ($574,600)

If you don’t have him, then this is a no-brainer. The little master boasts the second-largest average in the competition (behind Swan), averaging 126.31 points for the year and 141.7 over his last three games. No need to analyse the Suns’ draw or anything else for that matter, just pick him.

Scott Thompson ($455,100)

If you’re looking for a smoky, then I reckon Thompson’s your best bet. His current owners won’t be happy, as this ‘smoky’ appears certain to increase in popularity. Not only because he’s scored the seventh most points in the competition and has an average of 107.78 points per game, but his fixture over the next four rounds is quite enticing – apart from this week.

Thompson comes up against the Fremantle Dockers and Ryan Crowley this Saturday afternoon at AAMI Park. Last time the Crows met the Dockers was round 10 at Paterson’s Stadium, where Crowley troubled Thompson all day to the point where he was moved deep into the forward line – which didn’t help. Thompson finished with 65 points, his second-lowest score of the season. However, the Dockers still lost this game by 29 points, largely due to Rory Sloane running amuck and kicking three goals to go with his 33 possessions. Though I think it’s unlikely that Ross Lyon will change the choice of tag, Thompson had scores of 154 and 143 the last two times he played the Dockers prior to this year, so if he is allowed some roomthen we know what he is capable of. If you are in danger of elimination this week then perhaps tread carefully, however if you are confident you will remain in Grand Final contention after the completion of round 20, then there are certainly benefits to be had.

After Freo, the Crows play Brisbane at the Gabba, Melbourne at the MCG then the Gold Coast at AAMI Park in what should all be solid victories for the Crows and Thompson. Though I can empathise with fears that he may be rested, I would think it’s unlikely as a home final in Adelaide could well be decided by percentage.

A gamble that could decide your premiership fate.

Dayne Beams ($514,700)

2012 has seen Beams emerge as a star player of the competition, averaging 114.18 points per game and being the sixth highest-scoring player of the year. When Swan missed games in rounds nine and 10 of this year, Beams scored 132 and 98 points against the Crows and Suns respectively. In the run home, the Pies play Sydney at ANZ Stadium, North at Etihad, West Coast at Paterson’s and the Bombers at the ‘G. You can speculate over how much extra attention Beams will receive in the next two weeks in the absence of Swan, and you can try to analyse whether or not the Pies have a good run home; the bottom line is this kid is a gun,and it will not surprise me one bit if he scores the most points between now and the end of the season.

If you don’t have him, now is the time to put an end to the pain he would have been causing you.

Looking elsewhere?

Aside from these three options, Jobe Watson, Matthew Boyd, Scott Pendlebury and Joel Selwood look the next best bets. Watson is very reliable and will do whatever it takes to hold onto the Bombers’ spot inside the top eight. Boyd has enormous scoring potential and will continue to soldier on in what has been a tough year for the Bulldogs. Pendlebury seems to have been forgotten as an elite DTer and will likely remind us all by season’s end, while Joel Selwood will continue to thrive as the Cats continue to grow stronger heading into September.

All are good selections.

If you’re down to your last trade

If you have sufficient cover, or just don’t like the idea of departing with your final trade(s), then holding onto Swan is completely reasonable. You know he is going to explode when he comes back, and in the mean time Sam Gibson, Adam Treloar and Devon Smith are doing an incredible job of providing bench cover. The trade you save now could be used to greater effect deeper into the finals.

If you’ve run out of trades

Don’t panic, so have most of us. Swear at something then cross your fingers that your bench cover will step up to the plate and adequately fill the void. If your bench cover is non-existent, don’t worry, just hope that your opponent’s cover is even shakier than yours.

‎3 trades left, sitting 5-8 in all my leagues.
This week Swan to Murphy/Harvey, Darley to Scotland.
Next week Hanley to Waters.
Leaves me with no trades left but a full side with ok bench coverage. Ellis, S Shaw, Gibson, couch, N Riewoldt, T Adams.
Good trades/bad trades??

Sort of hoped that at some point he would have a few bad games and i could pick him up a little cheaper (during the season). Now however I don’t need to pick him up to the preliminary which hopefully gives me a slighter easier run going in the first week of finals whilst most hold him (i would imagine).

Did the same thing mate. No Swan all year thinking the same thing, then bring him last week & WTF??!!
Still don’t have him in SCoach, asked the question a couple of weeks ago if I could win the league without him.. I’m just now starting to dream…

Hate to be a pain lads, but should i start lake or spurr on the field this week?? Dont think its worth trading with only 2 left and the inevitability of some idiot getting rested during the grandy or something like that, haha

If you’ve finished top 4 and confident of winning this week keep swanny… The next game you’ll play he’ll be back smashing some massive scores.. As a said earlier you would be mad trading the biggest point earner in history!!

Let’s look at this a little closer. Firstly, let’s assume you want to trade Swan and you actually have the trades to do it (I used my last one a month ago). Let’s also assume it’s not your last trade, as I’d suggest you’d only use it this week if you’re top 20 overall and/or desperate to win a league game.

You can afford anyone, with change to spare. This is the first week of finals and for anyone out of contention for the car, the game is now all about beating your mates and/or Dr Dreamteam.

The first thing that I would do is check out the run home for each club. As follows;

What this tells us is that it’s probably not the best idea to get an Eagle, Swan, Cat or Port player. On the other hand, Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS and Richmond have pretty good runs home. Cases could be made for a few other teams, as well. It is also worth bearing in mind that teams like Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn may rest players in the lead-up to real finals (yes, football beyond the DT season!) once their position is assured.

So with finals at stake you either want to go unique against your likely opponents or make your existing uniques count for more by trying to match up on them. I’m always a fan of a unique pick and so personally, I would lean in that direction. It is up to you, of course, which strategy you prefer and how strongly you think your squad lines up against your mates.

With the above in mind, I would be looking very closely at these players for a Swan downgrade;

Sloane – Scored 150 on Freo last time they played and has the Suns in the grand final. Would expect him to play while older heads like Van Berlo and Thompson might get the week off. So many players here think he’s the Next Big Thing so picking him is a good excuse to watch his form leading into 2013.

Cotchin – Genuinely the Next Big Thing, if not already a Current Big Thing. Swan’s absence also boosts his brownlow chances, for the record, and the man is a machine. With Richmond’s run home, I would almost even prefer to get Tuck instead for a higher ceiling now that his job security is assured. Tigers also play four teams with good DT potential but damaging taggers (Picken, Crowley, Hocking, Kornes) although Cotchin has been good enough to score well despite attention.

Ward – GWS have a surprisingly good run home, as you could be told by anyone who bothered to look at the fixture before deciding to keep Giles instead of trading him out over the last month. Scored 126 last week and wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he averages over 115 over the next four weeks. Your opponent almost certainly won’t have him so could be a good POD.

Pavlich – Might be a forward but he’s one in very good form recently. Has impressive figures against 3/4 of his remaining opponents and the DPP link could be handy. You could do a lot worse IMO.

Those are my thoughts, anyway, for whatever they might be worth. Knowing that Swan is coming back for the last two weeks of finals – unless he goes out drinking again – I’d be inclined to keep him unless (as above) you’re in the top 20 or desperate for a league win. Any of the above four (five, counting Tuck) options give you a lot of spare change which would be very useful if you’re still carrying someone like Broughton or Lake.

Immpressive stuff there mate. Scotty Thompson is the best option IMO. The run home is awesome and he’s gonna win the Brownlow. Sloane will go alright over the last month as well.
Couple of smokies would be Andy Swallow and Shane Tuck…

What about Delidio? I have been trying to get him into my FF team all year – and here is my chance – also get the DPP potential with Goddard, just in case more disaster strikes. I have two trades left and finished 5th in League so must win.

This shouldn’t be a problem. All he has to do is set up an internal tribunal review commitee consisting of bootstrappers, cleaners and Joffa and get them to reduce the other internal tribunal’s suspension by one week and he’ll be back next week. Shouldn’t trade him.