Thursday, December 07, 2006

Thursday 12/07 A.M. Quickie:Troy Smith for Heisman? Why...NOT.

Troy Smith is going to win the Heisman. I don't have any specific scoop; like the rest of you, I simply assume this as fact.

Should the Heisman be for the most talented player in college football? The most valuable? Some combination?

Is Troy Smith really the best player in college football? Or does he get at least a little "Geno Torretta Bonus" for being the QB of the No. 1 team?

To steal a baseball stat, is Troy Smith's VORP (Value Over a Replacement Player) really that high -- or could you stick a serviceable QB in at Ohio State and do just as well? (See Krenzel, Craig)

If that's the case, maybe Smith isn't the best player in college football. And it's not like I'm nominating Brady Quinn. If Quinn played for any team but Notre Dame, he'd be at home, not in New York.

(Meanwhile, I saw that the ceremony would only feature three players: Smith, Quinn and Darren McFadden. I'm not sure why they ever went away from bringing the five top players to NYC for the ceremony. Even though at least 3 of the players perennially knew they weren't winning, it was always such an honor to be invited to New York to the ceremony.)

If Heisman worthiness is a function of talent and singular value to a team, I'd give my vote to Arkansas sophomore RB Darren McFadden. The Razorbacks were a surprise SEC title game runner-up, and the entire offense ran (and passed) around McFadden.

It's no surprise that Arkansas' loss to USC to start the season came with McFadden unable to play due to injury. And, even though Arkansas signed the top high school QB in the country, the most effective QB on the team was... McFadden – whether he was running out of a throwback single-wing/"Wildcat" formation or throwing the ball with uncanny success.

Darren McFadden is college football's LaDainian Tomlinson. He is its most talented player and – given Arkansas' unlikely success – one of its most valuable (and, yes, more valuable to his team than Troy Smith was to his).

Two years ago, I gave Reggie Bush my Heisman vote over Matt Leinart, who ended up winning the award. At the time, Bush was the most talented player in college football – and I'm quite sure that Leinart wouldn't have been Leinart without Bush being Bush. I was right about who *should* have won, but a year early on who *actually* won.

My 2006 Heisman vote goes to Darren McFadden. He won't win this season, but – based on my track record – they might as well engrave his name on the Trophy for 2007. But he's the best player THIS season, too.

Comments Question: Given that Troy Smith WILL win the Heisman this year, a few questions: (1) Do you think, like me, that another player SHOULD deserve the award? (2) If not, who do you think should be No. 2? (3) Which player didn't get much consideration but should have?

Quick Take on Today's Biggest Storylines:

Barry Bonds on the defending World Champion Cardinals, whose fans are among the wholesomest in sports, would be hilariously awesome. I can't wait to see where he ends up.

Jason Schmidt signs with the Dodgers (3Y/$47M), which is fascinating because he's staying in the division, joining a team that could really use that super-top-line ace.

Wait: Are the Red Sox going to miss out on Matsuzaka? What a waste that would be.

Wait: Are the Red Sox going to sign Eric Gagne? I know they're moving Papelbon to the starting rotation, but...Gagne?

As I'm still in Chicago...:*Signing Ted Lilly? The Cubs are off the deep end. And if they sign Gil Meche, too, will that make the Yankees players in the Zito auction? But not as off the deep end as the Royals, who after a decade of parsimony caught whatever spenditis the Cubs currently suffer from.*Trading Freddy Garcia? The White Sox better get a big year from Brandon McCarthy.

How is Tom O'Brien going from BC, where he had the Northeast recruiting scene much to himself, to NC State, one of the most competitive recruiting markets in the country, an upgrade? And staying in the conference? He must have really seen he was never going to do better than his perennial 8 or 9 wins in Chesnut Hill.

If you were Rich Rodriguez, would you leave West Virginia – with an awesome chance to go unbeaten and make the BCS title game next season – for an Alabama program that is all impossible expectations (uh, and money)?

If you were Miami, would you hire Bernie Kosar, who has zero experience as a college football head coach? I sure as hell wouldn't.

College Hoops: Butler wins again. What I'd really like to see is an instant-classic matchup between Butler and WichitaState for "Most Legit Mid-Major" of 2006-07.

NFL: I'll take the Steelers over the Browns in an utterly meaningless game, then give you the rest of my picks for the week tomorrow.

McFadden should be he easy choice for the Heisman, but then again, so should Larry Fitzgerald a few years back. Troy Smith isn't the most outstanding player on his own team. That honor would go to Laurinitis.

More proof that the Heisman is a joke. The real awards are the ones less publicized (Belitnikoff, Guy, etc.).

Smith all the way. OSU doesnt win the Michigan game without him, and probably doesnt even win at Texas. We all saw what happened to Zwick against Texas. Two is McFadden. He should get it next year but will probably end up being a Peterson, and never win it.

Smith DEFINITELY wouldn't be in the discussion if he didn't play at OSU. He is just another pretty good QB if not for the team surrounding him.

Put any other QB in at ND and ND doesn't win 5 games this year...Quinn willed the team to victories at Mich State and UCLA and dominated Penn State. He also is the only reason ND was within 40 points of USC. In terms of VORP he is +5 wins for ND. Smith is maybe +1.

Dan Shanoff picking an SEC player for the Heisman(whose team lost 3 games) over a Big 10 player (whose team was 12-0 the last time I checked). Well, personally, I'm shocked. Hey, I think McFadden is great and will be a much better pro than Smith, but based on how Smith came up huge in big games (i.e. @ #2 at the time Texas, and vs. #2 at the time Michigan) I think him winning the award is very legitimate. And no, I'm not an OSU fan (I can't stand them most of the time, except for Jan. 8th, 2007 when I will root like hell for them to shut all the Gator/SEC apologists up) just a fan who tries to look at things somewhat objectively.

My Heisman would go to Steve Slaton of WVU. How come noone gives him any love, he is the TRUE Ladanian Jr. Brohm would be another candidate if it were not he was injured for 3-4 games. And no, I do not like the Big East.

Dan comparing Troy Smith to Geno Torretta is idiotic. The only thing that Torretta and Smith have in common is the talent they have/had. Smith has a better arm is much more mobile (Michigan game in 2004 he had over 300 yards total offense, 150 on the ground) and has a knack for making the big play.

As another poster mentioned if Smith had played the entire game against Texas last year OSU wins. I think Krenzel is more like Torretta. Although OSU did not score a lot that year they had incredible talent on offense (Gamble, Jenkins, "Goose" Clarett).

My only question to you Dan is if Smith suceeds on the next level are you going to admit you were wrong about him or are you going to be like Merril Hodge who still cannot bring himself to admit that Vince Young is on his way to being a legitimate NFL QB.

Troy Smith wins games...period. We saw what happened when "just another QB" was with the team. Justin Zwick went into OSU as the golden boy and came out shunned by fans. So to answer your question, not just any QB can play at OSU.

Take Smith off the OSU team and they lose to Texas this year and Michigan the past 3 years. Not to mention all the other close games. Come on Dan!

And if Brady Quinn went to Michigan or USC...he'd have the same stats...and he'd be invited.

I'm with Dan on wondering why Tom O'Brien or Rich Rodriguez would be contemplating moves.

Money seems to be the answer in both cases, but what I saw in this morning's paper was that both will only be getting raises in the 200K range. That's a lot of money to me. But it shouldn't be for either of the coaches, who are already making more than $700,000 per year.

Plus, WVU is pledging to make its football facilities the envy of the known universe.

Add in the fact that bot would be taking huge steps down in terms of talent, recruiting, and stadiums/practice sites, and you just have to ask, "What gives?"

there are a lot of guys who don't get any pub for the heisman because they're small school guys. Ian Johnson, Colt Brennan, Garret Wolfe. The truth is nobody knows their name. The heisman became a popularity contest and it's like electing a class president, it doesn't mean dick. Hey maybe you can buy OJ's on ebay.

Jason - what are you basing that on. What do you need to make it the NFL? What seperates this class from any other class other than the fact that the top QBs this year make few mistakes, are accurate, play in the spotlight, have strong arms, are working in current NFL style offenses, win games, take hits, can scramble when needed...so what exactly do you mean by "dont have what it takes to make it in the NFL"?

I'm not sure if Troy Smith is the best player in the country or not. But I do know that unlike Brady Quinn he stepped up and won his big games this year. It's easy to have big games against Army/Navy or whatever. But when you crap the bed in your two biggest games and your team gets blown out I am pretty sure you don't deserve to be considered the best player in the country.

Didn't get to see McFadden play enough to have an opinion on him. His numbers don't look substantially better than Michael Hart's, though.

Quinn played equal or better against tougher competition than Smith this year - he cant play defense for his team. He had a monster day against a very good USC defense and threw three tds against michigan (two picks were tipped passes one that hit his TE in the face)

Whoever said Slaton for Heisman, I love that you mentioned him...because I'm a huge WVU fan...but he definitely doesn't deserve it this year. He had a great year, but those fumbles against Louisville cost us an undefeated season (think we wouldn't have played with more inspriration against USF if we had been undefeated?). Besides, Pat White was named Big East offensive player of the year over Slaton. Let's get them next year!! (with Coach Rod on the sidelines preferably)

geoff, did you see how many of Quinn's passes were dropped by receivers, particularly McKnight. As someone said, Quinn can't play defense and he also can't be at the other end to catch his perfectly thrown passes.

Quinn's one true fault is not being able to escape the pocket, compounded by not throwing the ball away early enough.

Troy Smith had a fantastic year. He DESTROYED Notre Dame. Justin Zwick would have never made the runs AND throws he made vs. them. You would love Troy Smith if he was on ND. You say that I hate ND so much it's disturbing, you hate OSU and Troy Smith so much it's embarrassing. Just admit he is a really good QB.

Troy Smith=Geno Torretta, Darren Mcfadden=Marshall Faulk who finished second that year to Geno Torretta, because he was only a sophomore! Why can't an underclassmen win the award when they are clearly the best player in the nation. Heisman=media hype, if you get it you win, if you are from Arkansas you DON'T period.

I'd like to see someone show up at the Heisman ceremony not in a suit, and then explain it, "I couldn't afford it, and I told coach not to give me money for one so that he doesn't end up on probation." Even better if he shows up 10 minutes late because he had to hitch a ride to New York from Orlando a couple of nights earlier. Or if he was up late studying for finals.

Of course, Pujols would argue that the Heisman shouldn't go to a guy from Notre Dame because they're not playing for the championship.

How does BC like getting raided by the ACC now? ha! More recruits for Rutgers, Syracuse, and UConn perhaps?

And lastly, if two mid-majors play each other, how does that prove legitimacy? If two SWAC teams play when they're 7-0, the winner doesn't become any more legitimate to the big boys!

I'd love to get some snow tonight. 35 degrees and gray is a waste of my time. Either really be winter or have it be 65 out. But it only looks like an inch, tops, here (about a half hour from the WWL).

Have you seen any of the Buckeyes games? How can you say he's a game manager when the Buckeyes are putting up sooo many points. The fact is, without Troy Smith the Buckeyes would have lost to Texas, Penn State, and Michigan. The Heisman is not about the most skilled player, its about the Most Outstanding Player, the MVP. Without him, the buckeyes would have had to play Zwick and easily would have lost 3 games. Please back up your theories about him being the next Gino Torreta with actual facts. Watch the Buckeyes play and then comment on them. No other player deserves the Heisman in 2006 more than Smith. It will be wide open next year, but this year we have a clear cut choice. Give credit when its due instead of posting to get publicity. He's simply the Heisman winner. Can't wait till he lights up the Gators on January 8th.

I think he is a very good QB, and handles his situation very well...I just think as a pure QB, Quinn is better.

Beating up ND (last year by the way) does not a good QB make...ND defense is laughable. Saying Smith won all those games (penn st, texas, michigan) is a little bit of a stretch - the defense won Penn St and Texas. Smith did play very very well against michigan though. I will admit I do not like OSU and do have a bias towards Quinn but i feel i am justified in saying he is a better QB in a much tougher situation.

Also agree with the comment Quinn needs to start throwing the ball away sooner - disagree that he can't move in the pocket. Hes no Vick but he can make plays by scrambling and is a little quicker than you'd think.

I hate OSU and ND pretty equally so I am writing this pretty unbiased. But in the Michigan/ND game there wasn't one time when I was concerned that Quinn was going to make a big play to turn the game around. Every play in the Michigan/OSU game I expected Troy Smith to make a big play.

Now I know OSU has a way overall better team than ND so it isn't exactly a fair comparison. But alls I'm saying is that by going by what I watched Troy Smith is a better player.

remember, the heisman is for the best college player, not the best college player that we think will be a good pro too. Potential has nothing to do with it.

Troy Smith will be an average NFL QB at best, but his college credentials speak for themselves. Sorry, but you dont go 12-0 without having a decent QB...who in essense is the on field manager of the offense, and so what if his stats are marginal...he moves the chains and wins ball games, and that is the greatest measure in college ball...well, maybe except for the BCS.

Why are people dismissing Troy Smith's potential to be a good NFL QB? Is it because he is not 6'3 or taller or is he a product of a good system that has surronded him with great talent? Would like to get some feedback on this.

Don't give me Ohio State wouldn't be good without Troy Smith, they still have Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez to catch the ball and if they didn't have a decent QB they could hand it to Pittman and Wells and Laurinitis would still rock it on D.

Quinn throws to Samardzija and McKnight. I do think Quinn is better than Smith though.

Can someone name a receiver on Hawai'i? Anybody? If you got Davone Bess you have been paying attention.

I have no problem with Troy Smith as the Heisman. You are very wrong that you could plug anyone in at QB for OSU. What Smith brings is the one thing that NONE of the other candidates have had: Leadership and Poise. The man has weathered every storm like a champion. He has represented his team well and always remembered those that have helped him. Are his stats huge? No. But Ohio State would NOT be where it is without him.

Zbikowski is the leader of ND? I dont know where you pulled that one out of. In terms of leadership and poise...in the past couple years every time (EVERY time) ND has needed a score to tie or take the lead at the end of a game Brady Quinn has led them to a score...every time. That is poise and leadership.

What is this storm Smith has weathered?

Keep in mind - I still think Quinn is the best QB in terms of potential and skill but Smith deserves the Heismann.

What a worthless conversation today. Everybody just trying to knock down and marginalize great football players. People who don't like ND, knocking down Brady Quinn (a good QB). People who think Troy Smith is getting it because he is on the best team (a good multi-dimensional qb). People knocking McFadden because of Dan's "SEC bias." I don't buy this reason and neither would anyone who saw the LSU vs Ark. game.

On an unrelated note, kudos to Bernie Kosar for trying to help out his school. They would be crazy to hire him, but unlike the rest of the many me-first famous alumni that "The U" seems to foster, he's trying to acutally help out in a positive manner.

Quinn has 700 more yards and a 7:1 TD:INT ratio vs Smith's 6:1. Smith was sacked a lot less which I consider an important part of being a QB. Smith only had 233 RY on the season with under 4.0 Y/C and 1 TD - not impressive.

As Ben asked, why not Colt Brennan or Ian Johnson? All Johnson has done is lead the nation in TDs (24 to McFadden's 14) with 6.4 Y/C (to McFadden's 5.9). Oh, and Boise St is undefeated. (interesting note: they're both Sophs)

When was the last time a non-BCS Conference player won the Heisman? Actually, maybe they know something: Ty Detmer (BYU) in 1990 and Andre Ware (HOU) in 1989.

Dave, Great point about Kosar - true, he has no experience but he should be commended for staying involved over the years and now trying to help out his school. He is one of the few good guys to come out of the "U".

Second,I think Dan is either crazy or just trying to start arguments by comparing Toretta and Smith. I had my doubts about Smith and I certainly hate the idea of giving the Heisman simply to the QB of the top team but I started watching his games (especially vs. Mich) and I was convinced without a doubt that this guy desrves the Heisman.

The question of "What constitutes the Heisman" should be discussed and argued but not this year. Smith deserves to win this year's award!!!

I'm really sad to see Tom O'Brien go from BC. Not only has the program been very competitive under him, but he was a good guy and the graduation rates for the players were always excellent. I hope he can maintain that level of academic excellence in NC State, and hope he does well there. That being said, I'm really disappointed that he'd go to an ACC rival. Seems kind of cold, when he had such a great thing going at BC.

Re: Ohio St., not sure how many of you caught this, but I think the Onion had by far the best write-up of the year thus far in regards to the BCS. In all seriousness, I probably agree with this:

I'm going to be the completely insane individual that says Miami SHOULD hire Bernie Kosar.

1. If he's a complete disaster, you've lowered expectations and it will be easier to find a replacement (like Rodrigez after he has a down year).2. If Pete Carrol can be a success basically just recruiting and QB coaching, I'm sure Kosar can match up with that. Everyone is impressed with his football IQ. It worked for Spurrier. Miami needs an X's and O's guy very little in the ACC, and former quarterbacks are more likely to develop coaching skills anyway.

Anyone see the puff piece they did on Colt Brennan on espn a week or so ago - how he overcome the odds and now is playing so well...and by overcoming odds I mean out running a sexual assault charge by moving to Hawaii...espn really is reaching on these "feel good stories".

Heisman is easily Smith. However, I wouldn't be as surprised if Brady Quinn wins it as a "lifeteime achievement award". see Eric Crouch

But yes, the Heisman is a complete joke of an award. This is an award where Jason White won it as a junior, which was a joke, and then lost it as a senior when he put up even better numbers, also a joke.

Smith has had the better college career than Quinn. 3-0 vs. UM and he also beat Quinn head to head in last year's Fiesta. There is no way that Quinn gets in there because there is no one else from Ohio St. that will take votes away from Smith. That is why White did not win back to back because him and Peterson split votes and allowed Leinart to win.

Colt Brennan is a great quarterback, but not a Heisman Trophy quarterback. He is an accurate passer with a strong arm, but he is in a system that throws teh ball 50-60 times a game with no real running game. This is the same system that allowed Timmy Chang to put up the same type of numbers. But for more perspective, Chang had 6 years of college with two red-shirt seasons due to injury. In his 2 red-shirt seasons, the back-ups also put up ridiculous numbers. In 2001, Nick Rolovich threw for 543 yards and 8 touchdowns against undefeated BYU. And let's not forget to decrease these numbers by the obligatory 20% for playing in the defenseless WAC.

Here are the three reasons why Troy Smith will win the Heisman (and should):

1) The Heisman is often awarded to the most CLUTCH player in college football (see: Woodson over Manning). Troy Smith has come up HUGE in every HUGE game the past TWO years (Minus the Penn St gm last year). And like it or not, the committee does take into account previous years, which means Smith's awesome comback vs. UM last year and his shellacking of ND DO count for something.

2) Comparing the top two QBs stats-wise, they are a a virtual dead heat. Smith 30 TD, Quinn 35 TD and both with 5 INT. But an overlooked stat is YPA, which Smith leads 8.4 to 7.6. This means he is more productive each time he throws it. The other QBs put up gaudy numbers, but play inferior defenses (Brennan's team scored only 17 pts vs Alabama, who went 6-6).

3) McFadden just doesn't have the stats! In today's passing systems, 14 TDs for a RB won't cut it. You need 18-24 TDs plus 1800 yds to have a chance vs. the modern QB in the Heisman race, which I think he will get next year! Also, 21 for 73 vs. FLA in a massive game sealed his fate.

The Heisman is about two things: Stats and Being Clutch, and Smith has both.

Finally, He will not be the next Toretta! Toretta was a 7th rd pick, Smith is projected to go early 2nd! Toretta played in 2 NFL games and threw 1 TD pass -- barring injury, Smith has the skills to progress into a viable NFL QB (Drew Brees is only 6' and he's less athletic and look at what he is doing!!) Smith will fair better than many of the Heisman winners of the past 10 years.

"Didn't a SYSTEM also produce back to back Heisman winning QBs in Carson Palmer and Matt Lienart?"

- Yeah that Palmer sure is a system QB and I guess he lucked out in the NFL as well going into the QB factory that is the Cincinatti Bengals System (a system that produced such legends as Kitna, Akili Smith, & Klingler)

There is a difference between a system that produces National titles and pro style players, and a system that produces high scoring WAC offenses. What the hell, in a 63-10 win over Utah State they rushed a grand total of 13 times.

And that huge sigh of relief you just heard? It was all the White Sox fans thanking the good Lord that Jon Garland did not get traded to Houston for crap.

Garcia to the Phils for a AA or AAA guy in Gonzalez, then another pitcher that SUCKED in the NL? Methinks Kenny Williams got fleeced in this deal. With the huge salaries these pitchers are getting, he should be getting at least 1 more player in that deal.

2. If Pete Carrol can be a success basically just recruiting and QB coaching, I'm sure Kosar can match up with that. Everyone is impressed with his football IQ. It worked for Spurrier. Miami needs an X's and O's guy very little in the ACC, and former quarterbacks are more likely to develop coaching skills anyway.

Do not underestimate how good of a defensive coach Pete Carroll is, he was the D-Coordinator on some successful 49ers teams

Retirement plan for me. I have two boys who are both left handed. I will teach them how to throw a baseball in the mid 80's and to then throw a circle change up. HELLO middle relief pitcher for 20 years and 15 teams. One of the two will make it! Anyone else on this plan??

REVSCOTT and NATSFAN74-the Rainbow Warriors throw the ball LESS THAT 40 TIMES A GAME and I could be wrong, but last time I checked, numbers that are less than 40 are not more between 50 and 60 or more than 50

NATSFAN74-on the no real running game comment...FACT: Hawai'i has more rushing yards than Maryland, UCLA, Alabama, Miami, Pitt, BC, Tennesse, and here's the killer NOTRE DAMEcare to retract your statement?

So in short, Colt completes more passes in fewer attempts for more yards on a better average, for almost twice as many TDs and almost half as many INTs, with more than 3 times as many rushing TDs, and Chang's passer rating is 2/3 of his.

Those White Sox deals are terrible. Not sure what Kenny Williams is drinking down in Florida.

Kudos to Brian in Oxford and danmega for at least trying to change the subject around here. Really, how many posts can you make arguing over the meaningless Heisman award. I'll take hot stove rumors over these award debates any day of the week.

I actually agree with you that five guys should go to NYC - it's great for these kids to be honored, even if everyone knows they're not gonna win. Besides, everyone knows Troy's gonna win it this year - why didn't they just invite him?

The Bob Davie era was a classic...he did wonders for ND - basically set into motion a series of events leading us to Weiss, which makes him a standup guy in my book.

In all seriousness the guy is an outstanding defensive coach - just dont be surprised when your offense goes run up middle, pass for one yard, run up middle, punt, play defense, repeat process for 60 minutes.

A lot of ND people i know (including myslef) would love to have the guy back as defensive coordinator.

This is year's draft class looks to me like there's no genuine superstars in the bunch. I can't think of anyone in the 2006 draft class that stands out. And I swear NDYanksfan, if you say Brady Quinn...i'll have to respectfully disagree.

Bonds to St. Louis? Does Bonds think that threat will hold enough water to make SF sign him quickly?

The White Sox had the one thing most coveted in sports right now - quality starting pitching making less than $10M per season. Why would they trade Garcia for such little return when they see what guys like Lilly and Meche are getting on their own? Future Schmuture....

As a UH season ticket holder (Go 'Bows), I have had plenty of opportunity to watch their various quarterbacks. They still call a pass on 78% of their downs, they threw the ball over 50 times in 3 games this year, and under 40 times in 3 games, so add in the called passes that became runs (scrambles and sacks) and you are back to 50 per game. Their running game is a ruse to keep defenses almost honest, but their running yards are largely draw plays and quarterback keepers.

No doubt Colt is a great passer, but his numbers compare to David Klingler and Andre Ware - largely inflated due to the type of offense. In 2001, Nick Rolovich threw for 373 yards per game and 4 TD per game. This is a system that allows for explosive numbers.

Colt Brennan did play against Purdue, so that's big 10 right? He was 33/48 for 434yds and 3 td's. But then again the Big 11 stinks this year, so you have to discount that, but don't count that against Troy Smith. The truth is, other then Michigan, the only tough Defense that Troy Smith faced this year was in practice. So go blow his stats out your ass.

Say what you want, but the fact that there aren't any CBS or FOX promos during the game (in stunning HD, of course...thanks, Adelphia) makes the NFL network telecast, well....not that bad.

natsfan, you're on the island? I had a blast for a week this past summer with the then-future mrs. (ok, she's not a mrs., she's a dr.) How many home games do the Rainbows get a year? I know the NCAA gives them an extra game per year, but are teams lining up for the chance to visit each year?

the red sox last year taught me that you don't trade pitching just because you have it! will the white sox learn that soon enough into the season?

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.