TY - JOUR
AU - Horioka,Charles Yuji
AU - Terada-Hagiwara,Akiko
TI - The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia
JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL - No. 17581
PY - 2011
Y2 - November 2011
DO - 10.3386/w17581
UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17581
L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17581.pdf
N1 - Author contact info:
Charles Yuji Horioka
Asian Growth Research Institute
11-4, Ohtemachi, Kokurakita-ku
Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka 803-0814
Japan
Tel: 81-93-583-6202
Fax: 81-93-583-4602
E-Mail: horioka@agi.or.jp
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
Macroeconomics Research Division
Economics Research and
Regional Cooperation Department
Asian Development Bank
Manila, Philippines
E-Mail: ahagiwara@adb.org
M2 - featured in NBER digest on 2012-04-01
AB - In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy and that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development. We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.
ER -