Ben Zobrist embraces a teammate after scoring on a double off the bat of Wil Myers. Zobrist initially reached on his thousandth career hit — a leadoff liner up the middle. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo)

There isn’t much to say about the Rays — as a whole — in their 8 – 5 loss to the Yankees. The swarm was in full effect in the first inning when Tampa Bay started the game in fevered fashion by scoring four runs and going 3-3 wRISP — quickly knocking the Yankees’ starter Chris Capuano out of the game after 1/3 of an inning, and 36 pitches. Capuano was charged with all four runs.

Yet, as predictable as a thunderstorm on a hot summer day in Florida, New York’s (September call-up bolstered) bullpen dampened the fire and held Tampa Bay to 0-8 with runners in scoring position thereafter. Concurrently, Jake Odorizzi only pitched one out into the fifth inning after he gave up six unanswered runs on five hits, including a pair of homers. In trouble from the get-go, Jake only tossed one clean frame. Joel Peralta, not so surprisingly, yielded a pair of runs in the eighth. He’s now been tagged with nine earned runs in his last nine outings; totaling 9-1/3 innings of work and good for an 8.71 ERA in that span.

It wouldn’t have been a stereotypical 2014 Rays loss without a broken milestone or two. Below are a handful of notable, uh…happenings from Wednesday night’s contest.

Thanks to Evan Longoria’s solo homer in the ninth, the Rays became the first visiting team to homers in 12 consecutive road games against the Yankees since Cleveland (1995-1998).

Evan Longoria became the first AL third baseman to have 20 (or more) homers six times in the first seven seasons. Mathews, Rolen, and Chipper Jones did it in the NL.

With a runner on first in the seventh inning, James Loney smacked a hard hit single into right field which advanced Wil Myers to third. Loney almost decapitated Myers in the process, when the head portion of his broken bat essentially made a b-line for the head of the reigning rookie of the year.

Speaking of Myers, he allowed Mark Teixeira to reach third base with a triple when he couldn’t corral the ball off big Tex’s bat not once, not twice, but three times as it bounded along the right-field wall. Go ahead and try to figure that one out.

The New What Next

The Rays can clinch their fifth consecutive season series against the Yankees (since 2009) with Alex Cobb on the mound. Cobb will be opposed by Michael Pineda (3-4, 1.80 ERA). Pineda made his way to the Yankees from the Mariners a few years back. As Ian Malinowski wrote of Pineda back in 2012,

“First off, here is Pineda’s pitch mixture. His slider is his best pitch, and he throws it a lot. There are some concerns that heavy slider use makes a pitcher more injury prone. Don’t take my numbers as meaning that he throws it more than his fastball, though. If you combine my three types of fastball (and my classifications are painfully far from gospel), you get 61% fastball, 30% slider, and 8% changeup. His changeup is a work in progress, but I wouldn’t write it off (remember, he’s only 22). Despite Pineda’s flyable tendencies, the changeup actually got 51% ground balls when it was put in play last year (the slider 49%, the fastballs all under 30%).”

BA made mention of a Wall Street Journal article on the subject of defensive shifts, with the essential question being, “Do they work?” Overall, the answer is yes. Writer Steve Moyer found that, “Shifts have saved a net of 390 hits this season through Monday. If we were to add those 390 hits back into the grand total, the overall MLB batting average would rise to .254 from .252—a significant increase considering we’re talking about 146,785 at-bats.” However (and surprisingly), the team that pioneered the use of the shift — the Tampa Bay Rays — has only benefitted four times from the shift this season, out of 1,028 total applications. The article (linked) is a pretty interesting read.

Your tweet of the day:

#Rays Odorizzi: “It sucks. I’m solely to blame for tonite. The loss is on me….We had a 4 run lead and I gave it up. That’s unacceptable.”

The end is nigh. The Tampa Bay Rays will follow their recent 4-6 home stand with their penultimate road trip of the season. First stop New York, where the Rays are set to start a three game series against the Bronx Bummers.

Tampa Bay has been relegated to two roles for the remainder of the 2014 season:

Spoilers

A team that can finish the final month of play strongly

As it relates to task number one, the Rays took two-of-three from the Orioles this weekend past. However, at 3-4 with a -10 run differential, the Rays haven’t really played that well in September. To be fair, at 3-3 over their last six games, neither have the Yankees — a team who is struggling to stay relevant down the final stretch.

New York is coming off a three game series in which they were blanked twice by the Kansas City Royals. Doomed by fielding gaffes, the Yankees committed four errors in that aforementioned series, though they did not give up an earned run in either shutout. With a 5-7 mark in its last 12 games and a 3-3 record so far in their nine-game home stand, New York has dropped behind Cleveland in the race for the second Wildcard spot and will need to pass three teams in the final three weeks to make the postseason.

The Yankees have won the last two meetings with the Rays, the second coming on Kuroda’s August 17 start (opposite of Jeremy Hellickson). Those defeats began an extended stretch of struggles for the Rays, as they’ve gone 8-14 since reaching .500 after dropping 18 games under the break-even mark.

Rays and Yankees series starters (over the last 30 days).

Rays and Yankees offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).

Chris Capuano: The Rays have faced the 36 year-old Capuano (2-3, 4.46 ERA) twice out of the pen this season when he was with the Red Sox. He threw 2-1/3 clean innings of work, though Tampa Bay blasted him to the tune of six runs (five earned) in his previous 4-1/3 innings of work. Per Fangraphs, in Capuano’s four starts with the Yankees, his changeup has generated 63.3% ground balls, and his slider, 55.6%. The change piece has also coaxed 26.4% swinging strikes in that time. Those rates are significantly different from those of his prior stints, whether from earlier this season or in recent campaigns. He’s had over arching problems with the home run, and hard-hit balls in general, but he’s enjoyed some better outcomes since moving to the Bronx. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (3-5, 3 RBI), James Loney (4-7, 4 RBI), Evan Longoria (1-4, 2B), Wil Myers (2-2), Sean Rodriguez (1-4), Ben Zobrist (1-4, RBI).

Michael Pineda: The Rays will face Pineda (3-4, 1.80 ERA) for the first time this season on Thursday. Pineda made his way to the Yankees from the Mariners a few years back. As Ian Malinowski wrote of Pineda back in 2012,

“First off, here is Pineda’s pitch mixture. His slider is his best pitch, and he throws it a lot. There are some concerns that heavy slider use makes a pitcher more injury prone. Don’t take my numbers as meaning that he throws it more than his fastball, though. If you combine my three types of fastball (and my classifications are painfully far from gospel), you get 61% fastball, 30% slider, and 8% changeup. His changeup is a work in progress, but I wouldn’t write it off (remember, he’s only 22). Despite Pineda’s flyable tendencies, the changeup actually got 51% ground balls when it was put in play last year (the slider 49%, the fastballs all under 30%).”

The Rays lead the season series against New York 8-5, including 5-1 at Yankee Stadium; The Yankees lead 170-118 overall, 92-52 in New York, though it’s 26-26 since 2009.

A couple of interesting charts on Evan Longoria; one offensive, and one defensive:

Interesting. Longoria’s homers in heat-map form between the first half and second.

Why is Evan Longoria’s Defensive Runs Saved total down so much in 2014? (Courtesy of Mark Simon/ESPN)

Per MLB Trade Rumors, Drew Smyly is benefiting from the Rays’ focus on analytics. Upon joining the team, the Rays gave the 25-year-old some keen instruction and asked him elevate his fastball more. Those tips have led to some great work by Smyly in Tampa Bay and Rosenthal (the initial source of the piece) wonders why the Tigers didn’t pick up on some of the same. things.

Evan Longoria’s 12 career home runs at this Yankee Stadium are the most by a visiting player in the park’s six-year history.

Rays starters have a 3.46 ERA this season — the second lowest in the AL and sixth lowest in the major. A caveat: they are 48-49. Moreover, Chris Archer is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA (10-IP, 13-ER) over his last two starts. Before that, allowed only one earned run in each of his four previous starts.

Drew Smyly was good once again in his 5.2/3 H/2 ER/2 BB/7 K outing. He was (presumably) pulled two outs in the sixth inning after throwing 90 pitches because he’s on a limited inning count. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

A day after they closed out the series with a split against those dastardly Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into The Trop for a three game set. For the Rays, they’ll attempt to use their Labor Day win as a springboard for a run in the final month of play. With all reasonable expectations of a postseason berth off the table, there is the running hope they can end the season on a high note.

Toronto continues to wobble it’s way to game 162. The Blue Jays finally won their second series in the month of August, closing out the month with a 4-3 win against the Yankees, Sunday — a horrendous run of play which included a series loss to the Rays the weekend of August 23rd.

Over the last week since their last meeting, Jose Bautista has gone on a power trip, homering in five consecutive games, giving him 29 overall — one more than Edwin Encarnacion. Melky Cabrera tallied a few more hits making him second in the American League with 169. However, the overall offense is lacking. Per Marc Topkin, the high-powered Jays were held to three or fewer runs 15 times in 26 August games, including seven of their last 11.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters (over the last 30 days).

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production (at him, away, and over the last 30 days).

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey gave up three runs — one earned — on five hits over six innings while striking out six and walking two for no decision against the visiting Red Sox. Dickey (10-12, 4.00 ERA) took a loss in his previous two appearances against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay handled the knuckleballer on opening day, tagging Dickey with six runs in five innings. He was much better in July, relinquishing only two runs on five hits and a walk. Such is the life of a knuckleballer. More recently, Dickey’s given up four or more runs in four of his last eight outings. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (3-11, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Ryan Hanigan (1-3, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (6-25, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB).

Marcus Stroman: After being touched for six runs (five earned) on 10 hits against the Rays on August 22nd, Stroman (8-5, 3.88 ERA) held the Red Sox to only one earned run in 7-2/3 innings of work. Despite an excellent home record and ERA, Stroman is 2-3, with a 6.33 ERA on the road. Per his scouting report on BaseballAmerica.com, his change up still needs work, though his fastball and slider appear ready for the big time. Key matchups: Curt Casali (2-3), Yunel Escobar (1-3), Desmond Jennings (2-4, RBI), Matt Joyce (1-2, 2B, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (2-2, HR, RBI, BB).

Though contract decisions are theoretically based on the full season’s work, play over the final month can sometimes shape the thinking. The Rays don’t have a lot of decisions, with no pending free agents and only two players with options. They can, of course, shift payroll with trades or non-tenders.

He went on:

With so many players under control, the key to offseason flexibility might be trades, for which scouting, plotting and planning are often done now. There are a few players the Rays would be eager to deal, such as RHP Grant Balfour and C Jose Molina, but likely can’t. Some they will consider dealing based on 2015 salaries vs. their recent production, such as OF Matt Joyce, INF/OF Sean Rodriguez and, maybe, RHP Jeremy Hellickson (though LHP Matt Moore’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is part of the equation). And certainly there are a few they could be tempted to deal, such as CF and, you wonder, maybe RF Wil Myers.

Rays outfielders offensive and defensive numbers. Note: a good amount of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier’s 2013 statistics were unavailable because they were in Triple-A Durham then. (Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs)

Ahead of the 2014 season, a common theme began to pop up among many a Rays blogger: Tampa Bay needs speed on the base paths. And while I wouldn’t necessarily call it kismet, the additions of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier have alleviated that need in a manner of speaking. David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce have all fallen off in the speed department.* Guyer and Kiermaier — along with Jennings and Wil Myers — have made the Rays a much faster team. It goes without saying, with speed comes the ability to prowl the outfield more effectively, which speaks to the UZR of the above mentioned players.

Arm strength is also another concern. While Kiermaier’s cannon has been well documented, Jennings has fallen off significantly, making him a candidate for platoon duty in right field along with David DeJesus and Guyer. A move along these lines would make room for Kiermaier in center, and Joyce and Myers in right.

The question begs, are there any tradable/disposable pieces who could free up payroll space for any future acquisitions to bolster the roster? The simple answer is yes. After all, the Rays don’t need six outfielders (or eight, when you include Zobrist and Rodriguez) on the roster. Who then should go? If we’re talking about trading only one player, I’d have to say Matt Joyce for a few different reasons.

First, his numbers have improved in eight of the 14 categories listed above — with the exceptions of his power numbers (SLG and ISO), speed, fielding, and UZR. Because of those improved numbers, his overall value has increased from $8.7 MM to $11.4 MM. With the increased overall value, Joyce may pull more than the Rays would be willing to dole out next season, an arbitration year. And with the increased overall value, one would assume his trade value could be peaking as well, which could give Tampa Bay an opportunity to trade for a few key pieces in the bullpen. In light of what DeJesus has done this season, over the span he’s played, trading Joyce wouldn’t necessarily be to the detriment of the 2015 roster.

If the intent is to use this season as a checklist of sorts for the next, the Rays’ deficiencies — which are glaring — must be addressed if Tampa Bay wishes to be relevant in 2015. Trading Matt Joyce could, at least, start to address those deficiencies.

Noteworthiness

Some familiar faces will be in the clubhouse today after the roster expansion:

Ali Solis was outrighted off the 40-man roster, and accepted his assignment. The move created a spot for Steve Geltz on the 40-man roster.

In addition to players, the Rays have have called up Class-A Stone Crabs hitting coach Joe Szekely for this week.

Your tweet of the day:

#Rays Maddon wager to add DeJesus to mix hoping he sparks offense, Jennings’ return will make for tougher decisions

Evan Longoria rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles, Thursday. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

If you subscribe to the idea that the Tampa Bay Rays still have a shot of a postseason berth — albeit it an incredible small shot — then it is safe to assume that the upcoming 10 game home stand is incredibly important. To put it bluntly, if they don’t walk away with three series wins against their AL East foes, they’re toast.

Enter the Red Sox.

The Sox look significantly different than they had in their late July visit to The Trop. Gone are pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, Jake Peavy and Andrew Miller; outfielder Jonny Gomes; and Stephen Drew. Moreover, Jackie Bradley Jr. has been optioned to Triple-A, Mike Carp is now a Ranger, and Shane Victorino and Xander Bogaerts on the DL. They brought in Yeonis Cespedes, Allen Craig and RHP Joe Kelly, as well as a bunch of prospects and minor-leaguers. Those stalwarts David Ortiz (30 homers, 94 RBI), Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli are still on the roster. After dropping eight straight, they took two-of-three from the Blue Jays.

Rays and Red Sox series starters (over the last 30 days).

Rays and Red Sox offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).

Rays and Red Sox (by the numbers).

Anthony Ranaudo: The 24-year-old RHP took the spot of the recently departed John Lackey. Ranaudo was 12-4 with a 2.41 ERA in 21 starts with Triple-A Pawtucket. He posted 99 strikeouts and a two-to-one K/BB in 119-1/3 innings. Ranaudo features a mid 90’s fastball which he’s able to execute down in the zone, a good curveball, and a change that he can throw against both righties and lefties.

Allen Webster: Webster (3-2, 5.81 ERA) put together a good three hit/two run outing against Tampa Bay back at the end of July — his first start with the Red Sox. He’s given up 18 runs in 25-2/3 innings since, good for a 6.31 ERA. Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Ben Zobrist (1-1, 2 BB).

Clay Buchholz: If I may, Buchholz (5-8, 5.77 ERA) has been abysmal this season. The Red Sox are 4-8 in their last 12 games when Buchholz has taken the mound. Meanwhile, the 30 year-old RHP has given four or more runs in seven of those 12 games. Red Sox GM Ben suggested that Buchholz doesn’t have a consistent feel for his secondary pitches, namely his changeup. “He’s always been a guy who’s gotten hitters out with his entire mix, not by being a fastball-dominant pitcher, not by relying exclusively on one pitch, but by mixing and using all his pitches in all parts of the zone and being hard to hit because he’s unpredictable,” Said Cherington. “He just has not had a feel for the entire mix this year. That’s sort of the end result.” Key matchups: Matt Joyce (6-22, 2B, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Jose Molina (7-22, 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (3-10, 2B, RBI).

Rubby De La Rosa: De La Rosa (4-5, 3.81 ERA) absolutely owned the Rays in his only start against Tampa Bay on May 31, holding Longo and company to only four hits in a seven inning gem. He walked none, and struck out eight. De La Rosa is a pretty traditional pitcher with a good change-up (18% whiffs), however he’s thrown fewer of them and his strikeout rate halved (22.6% to 10.8%) and his walk rate doubled (5.5% to 11.4%). Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (1-4), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), James Loney (1-3), Evan Longoria (1-4), Wil Myers (1-1, 2B, RBI), Ben Zobrist (1-3, 2B).

Noteworthiness

Per Marc Topkin, it’s looking like the Rays will call up four or five players Monday, probably Curt Casali, David DeJesus, Brandon Gomes, and another reliever. They may wait on adding another starter with Durham in the playoffs.