China’s 2014-2015 (Oct-Sep) will see 10% more soybean and 5% less rapeseed crushing, or 1400tmt more oil from beans, and 400tmt less oil from rapeseed, than last season. If import of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil is 800tmt, 700tmt and 6000tmt respectively for Oct 2014/ Sept 15 , then we shall see a supply growth of 2.6% for vegetable oils, which does not look high comparing to still 7% GDP growth, but would again add to commercial inventory of vegetable oils in China, for the 3rd consecutive season. It would be the 7th consecutive season of inventory growth of vegetable oils, if we count state reserve together. Therefore, China shall not be a driving force of any price rally in world vegetable oil market, at least not for 2014-2015, maybe not for many years down the way neither.

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Questions & Answers (2) :

Jianfei (Jeffrey) XU

3 years ago

China shall have no way to encourage biofuel based on veg oils in the near future, however, China may import more biofuels as long as price is competitive against fossil energy.

Hassan Ali

3 years ago

TQ Mr. Jeffrey for the presentation. There is a fair bit of enquiry from China for alternative feedstock to burn after China restrict its use of coal due to environmental reason. Do you see good prospect for vegetable oil biofuel such as palm based biofuel having good support the coming years. Do you have information on the developments.

Jianfei (Jeffrey) XU:China shall have no way to encourage biofuel based on veg oils in the near future, however, China may import more biofuels as long as price is competitive against fossil energy.3 years ago