Is this the end of car culture, or will vehicles roar back with the economy?

Is the Car Dead? The Globe and Mail’s Report on Business magazine recently published a story asking that question. It was the latest piece to examine the trend among young people away from cars, a story not unlike what the Herald’s Tony Seskus reported last year in Alberta, and similar to the trend spotted by The Atlantic here.

The basics of the argument are this: A number of statistics show that young North Americans are not getting their drivers licences, nor are they purchasing cars, at the same rates as in the past. “According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, just 28% of 16-year-olds and 45% of 17-year-olds had driver’s licences in 2010 (the most recent data available),” ROB reported. “In 1978, the corresponding figures were nearly half and more than two-thirds.”

This has led to a number of stories about the death of so-called car culture. The stories tend to paint the end of the age of automobiles being just around the corner because young people find them expensive, dirty and ill-suited to their increasingly urban lives.

There isn’t much disputing these figures. What has been nagging at me is the murky explanations for the cause of these figures.

Most of these stories gloss over the economic side of the argument in favour of the cultural; saying that young people aren’t buying cars because they are uncool, but that, oh yeah, they can’t afford them anyway because they are saddled with massive student debts, crappy jobs and even worse career prospects.

While the cultural argument is certainly more intriguing — a move away from our car-dominated culture would be a massive shift — I’ve yet to see any convincing evidence of it. I have seen precious little deep study into the issue, which means the trend is just as likely economic, and as soon (or if) the economy recovers, young people will again be hitting the open road a la American Graffiti. The stories that do actually go out and ask young people are also suspect because calling a car uncool is certainly easier if you can’t afford one. In places where young people do have money, such as Alberta, the trend is less pronounced. GM executives certainly believe this is the reason for the decline in car ownership.

I’ve been unscientifically asking people of different ages what they make of the trend — is the reason for the decline in car use because of culture or the economy? — and the answers have been interesting. The responses I’ve heard have been pretty much split down the middle. Interestingly, younger people tend to say it’s a cultural shift , and older people say it’s economic. Younger people say they and their friends have no desire to live in the ‘burbs and drive long distances to work, while older people say cars still represent freedom when you are young, and are a necessity when you have a family.

What does this have to do with a cycling blog? The question is crucial to the future of our cities. If the trend is economic, then the suburban model that has facilitated most of the growth of cities over the past 50 years will likely stick around. If it’s cultural, we’ve got some problems. First of all, our cities, and especially Calgary, are currently ill-equipped to handle more and more car-free urbanites. Sure, we’ve made some progress, but the proof of our unsuitability is the sky-high cost of inner-city homes — demand is outstripping supply. What will happen when demand keeps rising? And what will become of people in existing neighbourhoods who like their suburban lifestyles and cringe at the words “densification” and “urbanism?”

The issue also raises questions about urban transportation infrastructure. How will all these car-free people get around? Public transit mostly, but there are financial and logistical limits to that. Cycling is a cheap and easy alternative, but hasn’t exactly been embraced.

So you can see why this is such an important questions to consider. So what do you think? Take the poll, and share your thoughts using the comments below, or on Twitter , Google Plus, Facebook or Email.

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