Brexit, Broken Majorities and Consequent Chaos

In June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU, much to the surprise of many. As
of January 2018, there is no clear plan for exit, even though it is due on March
29th.

The UK's political system is, like America's, based on two-party politics.
When there are two parties, then you can play at majorities. The group that gets
the most people elected gets to form a government, then as long as all their
parliamentary members vote with the party, they can pass any laws they like,
based again on a majority of members of parliament voting for any one
resolution. This principle, that all you need is 51% of the vote, works as it
plays to a simple principle of fairness that most accept, even though nearly
half the voters get disappointed.

However, a problem happens when an issue is so divisive that there are more
than two positions. In multi-party politics, such as appears in systems of
proportional representations, then alliances are formed to again build a
majority. The 2017 UK general election left the Conservatives without a clear
majority, which shows a weakness of two-party politics when a third party holds
enough votes to join with a larger party, yet hold disproportionate power in
their ability to disrupt business as usual. The Northern Ireland DUP party, a
small but very conservative group themselves, joined the Conservatives to form a
majority, but

The real problem, though, for Brexit, is that there are three almost equal
factions in the 600-odd MPs of the House of Commons. Unusually also, they cross
party lines and the party leaders seem impotent in being able to persuade them
to follow any party line. About a third are with the Prime Minister in wanting
to go with the 'deal' she negotiated with Europe, including a £40bn
'divorce' bill and leaving much power with the EU. About a third want to remain
in the EU and see a second public referendum as a good way to get there. And
about another third (maybe a bit less) want a 'hard Brexit', crashing out of the
EU with no agreement and no payment. And each group is passionate about their
solution.

What this means is that there is no way to get a majority for any choice.
Indeed, each group would need to get about over 100 more other MPs to join them.
In this way, the majority principle has broken. The deepest key reasons this has
occurred is strength of belief. The Conservatives have always been
divided over the issue, including when we joined the EU in 1972. Labour have
also been divided but are affected by two strong forces: one is that most MPs
and party members tend to want to remain in the EU, yet their leader (Jeremy
Corbyn) and much of their electorate wants to leave the EU, resulting in MPs
torn between keeping their seats and following their ideals.

So, what will happen?

As of this writing, there is an impasse. The hard Brexit option seems to be
much feared by the two thirds who oppose this, and it is this fear that may lead
to a solution. The EU fears it too, which may drive them to offer more to avoid
it, enabling sufficient MPs to be persuaded to vote the amended soft Brexit
through. This shows how decisions can be driven more by fear than passion, even
when passionate belief exists. Fear is a very powerful motivator, and when faced
with a cliff-edge ideal can melt away.

If an acceptable compromise cannot be found then another solution is to hold
a second referendum, though the PM's office is currently suggesting that this
would take a year or so to organize (which is odd, as a General Election only
takes a couple of months to sort out). It highlights a second approach when
parties cannot agree: ask somebody else. Sometimes it is a trusted third party.
In this case it is the electorate that put the MPs there in the first place,
trusting them to make wise decisions.

And then strange, mad things have been happening in global politics in recent
years, and a hard Brexit may yet happen. Warehouse space in the UK is now
difficult to find as the government and companies stockpile against the day when
imports stop. I'm doing it myself and have full freezers and a good pile of
tinned tomatoes. But I most certainly hope that this chaotic result does not
happen.