Louisiana's GOP primary not a star turn

With Republican presidential candidates' date with Louisiana voters less than two weeks away, the state still lies largely quiet, still largely untouched by televisions ads, robocalls or town meetings that would signify Louisiana's moment in the national presidential conversation. Indeed, as state Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere Jr. noted recently, the election is so imminent that early voting opened on Saturday -- a fact that astonished a group of business executives he addressed on Thursday.

"I don't think people are really engaged in the presidential process at this point," said state Rep. Tony Ligi of Kenner, a Republican working with Mitt Romney.

"Each Republican candidate has core supporters here. But for all that it's a very small minority of voters. For now, everybody's just sitting back," Ligi said.

Next week, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Romney and Rick Santorum will turn their attention to primaries in Mississippi and Alabama. Then comes Illinois on March 20 -- and only after that will the campaigns focus briefly on Louisiana.

Still, it's the first meaningful Republican primary in Louisiana in recent memory, and the leading candidates are expected to make some appearances in the state in the coming days.

Bernie Pinsonat, a Baton Rouge pollster not working for any candidate, said the March 24 primary almost certainly will be a low-turnout affair, probably attracting only about a quarter of registered Republicans, who in turn make up just over a quarter of the state's electorate.

In one way, the Deep South will present a particular challenge to Romney, who leads in the overall delegate count, but has yet to secure the nomination.

The region is heavily populated with evangelicals and social conservatives who are sufficiently committed to vote even in a low-turnout election.

Romney's Mormonism is their first experience with that faith on the presidential ballot.

Moreover, his former support of abortion and his sponsorship of mandatory health insurance in Massachusetts leads some conservatives to harbor suspicions about his authenticity, said Gene Mills of the Louisiana Family Forum.

Perhaps for both reasons, Romney has received less support from evangelicals than from non-evangelicals in every contest for which data is available, according to the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

Meantime, Santorum, an outspoken Catholic and a social conservative, has made inroads among evangelicals. His campaign has overcome decades of anti-Catholic suspicion among evangelicals by making common cause with them on opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage, limited government and other culture war causes.

Paradoxically, Santorum, the outspoken Catholic, does not have a lock on the Catholic vote in the GOP primary.

Catholic voters are famously diverse politically -- their politics ranging from those of conservative Republican Sen. David Vitter to liberal Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

And Santorum does not line up with the church leadership on some important Catholic issues. He opposes immigration and some form of universal health care, which liberal Catholics and their bishops support.

An analysis by 1964, a blog of the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate based at Georgetown University, reported recently that Catholics so far have preferred Romney over Santorum by a margin of 50 percent to 22 percent.

"And Gingrich, if he's on his game and not meandering, may make a strong showing," Mills said. Gingrich is also Catholic, and he's the only one of the three front-runners with roots in the Deep South.

Villere and others, meanwhile, said Paul, the No. 4 candidate in terms of delegates, has decided to forgo the primary election. Instead, he is concentrating on winning as many delegates as possible in the caucus phase of Louisiana's two-step nominating process.

Even so, Villere, Ligi and others said everything now is mere speculation.

Romney, Santorum and Gingrich "all have strengths and weaknesses," said Villere. "I don't see a groundswell. Talking to people today, I don't get any sense. They're all split."

But they agreed the Republican name on the ballot won't make a difference in the November election against President Barack Obama.