I think it's almost too late for beef. Not saying commodities in general are bad. I'm just pretty sure beef's best days (as an investment) are behind it.

You're starting to see low end cuts and even ground beef exploding in price. But the higher end cuts not as much. It signals to me that the end is near. Beef is an American staple, but consumers are seeking the cheapest product as they begin getting priced out of the market.

It might have another good year. I wouldn't say panic. But the fall will be fast and furious when it happens. So there's risk. It's not something I'd buy into today.

I think it's almost too late for beef. Not saying commodities in general are bad. I'm just pretty sure beef's best days (as an investment) are behind it.

You're starting to see low end cuts and even ground beef exploding in price. But the higher end cuts not as much. It signals to me that the end is near. Beef is an American staple, but consumers are seeking the cheapest product as they begin getting priced out of the market.

It might have another good year. I wouldn't say panic. But the fall will be fast and furious when it happens. So there's risk. It's not something I'd buy into today.

Great points! Are you long on international growth/exports? I am going to sale (take profits) in May and walk away as the saying goes.

Out of the three ETF's (DBA, COW and UBC) - all of them have seen substantial growth this year.

If you don't mind me asking... which company were you going to have install it and what was the clause in the contract that changed your mind?

(I am currently being recruited by a solar company for a new job and I am curious about your situation)

Roof Diagnostics Solar based out of NJ, but are somehow affiliated with a company called SunRun out of CA and use their contracts.

Here's their basic plan: standard 20 year lease on equipment. They do full install and all maintenance for the 20 years at their expense (really the govt's expense since I sign any rebates over to them). They either take it down at end or we automatically re-up for separate one year terms. My bill would never go up for the life of the deal (but what the contract shows is while the bill stays the same for 20 years, the energy generated from the panels goes down year by year as the system ages/becomes less efficient - so you are forced to buy more and more energy each year from your normal energy provider - in my case National Grid). These things degrade so badly that I'm essentially paying for 21 years and only getting 20 years of juice.

Best case scenario, I'd save $10-$15 a month on my electric bill the first few years (after that it would depend on how much National Grid goes up in price). But that's only if the panels generate enough energy for 100% of my need. Otherwise, I'd have to buy from National Grid and potentially pay about the same or even more than I am now. And their contract even states that most people will have to buy at least some because for whatever reason, they won't install enough panels to cover 100% of your need even from day one. No idea why and no explanation from the salesperson why. I have enough roof for the necessary panels.

Big problem here: The contract only warranties roof against leaks from the holes they put in my roof for 5 years. Great, what about the other 15? Out of pocket time for me, cause insurance isn't going to cover their work, unless I pay significantly more in insurance each year. Bye-bye savings.

Another problem here: If I need to replace my roof while the panels are there (which I will), the sales agent told me they'd remove the panels for free one time and then put them back up when the new roof is done. The contract explicitly says the opposite. That pissed me off.

Roof Diagnostics Solar based out of NJ, but are somehow affiliated with a company called SunRun out of CA and use their contracts.

Here's their basic plan: standard 20 year lease on equipment. They do full install and all maintenance for the 20 years at their expense (really the govt's expense since I sign any rebates over to them). They either take it down at end or we automatically re-up for separate one year terms. My bill would never go up for the life of the deal (but what the contract shows is while the bill stays the same for 20 years, the energy generated from the panels goes down year by year as the system ages/becomes less efficient - so you are forced to buy more and more energy each year from your normal energy provider - in my case National Grid). These things degrade so badly that I'm essentially paying for 21 years and only getting 20 years of juice.

Best case scenario, I'd save $10-$15 a month on my electric bill the first few years (after that it would depend on how much National Grid goes up in price). But that's only if the panels generate enough energy for 100% of my need. Otherwise, I'd have to buy from National Grid and potentially pay about the same or even more than I am now. And their contract even states that most people will have to buy at least some because for whatever reason, they won't install enough panels to cover 100% of your need even from day one. No idea why and no explanation from the salesperson why. I have enough roof for the necessary panels.

Big problem here: The contract only warranties roof against leaks from the holes they put in my roof for 5 years. Great, what about the other 15? Out of pocket time for me, cause insurance isn't going to cover their work, unless I pay significantly more in insurance each year. Bye-bye savings.

Another problem here: If I need to replace my roof while the panels are there (which I will), the sales agent told me they'd remove the panels for free one time and then put them back up when the new roof is done. The contract explicitly says the opposite. That pissed me off.

My friend is a fireman and he says when you have panels on your roof and the fire would normally be attacked from the roof, that they won't. They will let it burn. This is especially true of commercial building.

My friend is a fireman and he says when you have panels on your roof and the fire would normally be attacked from the roof, that they won't. They will let it burn. This is especially true of commercial building.

According to him the panels make the roofs a kill zone during a fire.

Interesting. I'll have to ask my bro in law about that. He's a ff in my town and I was actually talking with him the other day about this, but he never mentioned it. He was more focused on the roof integrity issue.

I just wish they'd let me set up a solar panel field in my back yard. I've got a few acres of open land beyond what I bothered to fence in with full sun exposure and it's just sitting there doing nothing. Could easily power me and a handful of neighbors.

Two sides of the apocalypse coin:
Side One: We're ****ed. Climate change will wipe us out. We've got to take action and make changes now!
Side Two: We're ****ed. Don't have the resources or tech to fix it. Might as well fuggedaboutit and pretend like nothing is happening.

I pay attention to domestic beef prices, but not really for investment purposes, so I hate to talk out my ass too much as far as exports go.

I think we're still essentially locked out of China so it's hard for me to see huge export growth until that gets settled. Other than that, I wouldn't speculate other than to say that I doubt increased exports could come close to making up the difference once US demand tips.

The drought in Texas can't last forever, so supply should increase from here for awhile. Which makes it even harder to see how current prices are sustainable beyond the next year or so.

Two sides of the apocalypse coin:
Side One: We're ****ed. Climate change will wipe us out. We've got to take action and make changes now!
Side Two: We're ****ed. Don't have the resources or tech to fix it. Might as well fuggedaboutit and pretend like nothing is happening.

Did you see Vice the other day? The segment on Greenland? Terrifying. Then again, the vast majority of us will be dead before we have to deal with it.

I don't think people realize how delicate and insignificant we all are in the universe. As it was stated in Cosmos, if the entire history of the universe was condensed into one year, humanity has only existed within the last few minutes. Worlds come and go, species come and go, and in a billion years, humanity will just be a small footnote like the dinosaurs, if not completely forgotten about/unknown to other planets. Human arrogance suggests that we can beat it, but ummm, not a chance.

Two sides of the apocalypse coin:
Side One: We're ****ed. Climate change will wipe us out. We've got to take action and make changes now!
Side Two: We're ****ed. Don't have the resources or tech to fix it. Might as well fuggedaboutit and pretend like nothing is happening.

This is the mental outlook of a Marxist, in a nutshell. The third side is "how can I parlay the fear I have created, in order so I can take control over you, and steal your money for myself."

This is the mental outlook of a Marxist, in a nutshell. The third side is "how can I parlay the fear I have created, in order so I can take control over you, and steal your money for myself."

Even if his intentions are noble he says "steal your money for your own good" without realizing he's still going to end up using it towards his own ends.

I've never thought most socialists are bad people. They just don't understand that there will never be a class of people created that are capable of ruling others separate from the impulses of their own self interest.