BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United’s recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

We are still stuck in 2003, and it isn’t (only) George W. Bush’s fault.

It’s the default position of liberals to lay the blame for this apocalyptic legacy—a failing Iraq, unchecked international jihadism, a neo-isolationist America—on the Bushies, who deployed cooked evidence and outright lies to sell the country on the war and then executed their own strategy with breathtaking recklessness and incompetence. The Iraq War cheerleaders on the right, whether think-tank-funded neocon armchair generals or flag-pin-bearing bloviators at Fox News, are also easily identifiable culprits in this story. So are those reporters and editors in the mainstream press who at best failed to vet and at worst jingoistically inflated Bush-administration propaganda about Saddam’s nonexistent weapons of mass destruction.

Out of 11 countries observed in the report, Australia spends the least on health as a percentage of gross domestic product. Data from 2010 shows we spent 8.9 per cent of GDP on health, slightly below the OECD average.

Mr Slipper said: ''Any suggestion by Mr Ashby that the Full Court of the Federal Court found that the allegations of harassment had occurred is wholly incorrect. The Full Court decision meant that Mr Ashby could bring his allegations before the court to be tested, something which he has now declined to do. I am pleased to be so completely and publicly vindicated

A very interesting character in The Independent’s “100 Moments” series.

Guerrilla in the mist - a great German military maverick outwits the British again

There was only one German general in the First World War who managed to occupy British territory.

....Indeed, Lettow-Vorbeck would have a special clause in the Armistice of November 1918 specifically devoted to the arrangements for the safe conduct of himself and his men at the end of the war..........Lettow-Vorbeck’s “army” comprised some 14,000 men...... but it meant that disproportionate imperial allied forces – perhaps 300,000 strong – would be tied down.

The public record is strikingly clear. There is not a single document from the 1990s that incriminates Gillard. On the available paperwork, she provided valid legal advice and paid for her home renovations via personal cheques. By the standards of his police training, Smith has come up empty-handed.

Documents aside, what verbal evidence has come before the commission concerning Gillard? Like a parade of ageing Oompa Loompas, three impish men – Ralph Blewitt, Wayne Hem and Athol James – claimed to remember cash being exchanged in and around her Melbourne home.

Indeed, the nature of their recollections is remarkably similar.

In the witness box, the three veterans struggled to recall other events and details from 20 years ago. Under cross-examination, they were unclear about the amount of money involved and why it had been handed over.

None of them accused Gillard of knowing where the cash had actually come from. Rather, the commission was left with a vague impression of money floating around the house – claims that cannot be proven or disproven.

An important rebuttal from the Kouk to the SmearStralian habit of playing the man

The editorial then moves on to defend the industry data that was the trigger for the Kerr story – data that no one other than those working at The Australian have seen. I have asked to see the data so I can enhance my knowledge of the issue but so far, have not been able to view it. The secrecy that surrounds this industry data – which was the basis of the story – is enlightening. I suspect the data are shonky and The Australian is embarrassed to release them for fear they will raise questions about the survey sample and its timing, among other things.

They're passing the ball nicely, neat stuff. Highly impressive given the talent pool available football being a minority sport there, I mean, its popularity below AFL, rugby league, rugby union, cricket, fooling around in the sheepdip, being in Neighbours and moving to the UK to work in Shepherd's Bush; and coming just above book learnin'.

Of course, all she has managed to tell the commission so far, is that all important paperwork were conveniently destroyed in a flood. Mind you other union people have said that the offices did not get flooded.

Also bank statements can’t be provided because they were destroyed. But seriously, why cant copies of same be requested from the bank. In light of the cost of this commission, obtaining copies of bank statements, is a very small cost in the scheme of things, And why did the The commissioner not ask her why she did not get copies of same.

In the same breath, she says that she withdrew cash from the account and handed cash amounts to members at the meetings. Really? Also she managed at the end to suggest Shorten involved in branch stacking.

KJackson is as pure as the driven snow and everyone else is crooked. What a surprise

Morning all. Well done Socceroos, a gallant effort against a great opposing team. Kudos to Tony Abbott for his inspiring words of support to the team in our hour of need. No hang on, the dork didn’t say anything, still hiding from the media! I wonder if Abbott even knew the game was on?

I think PM Credlin will soon need to appoint a new media spokesperson. Abbott one is not up to the job.

Bad luck Qld in State of Origin too. Still, eight in a row is not bad.

In other news the government is not going to force a DD on us. How magnanimous!
Have a good day all.

The World Heritage Committee has delivered a harsh verdict on the Abbott Government’s failure to protect the Great Barrier Reef tonight, voting to keep alive their threat to list our Australian icon as “in danger”.

The Committee expressed its serious “concern and regret” with the Abbott Government’s plans for Australia’s environment in the deliberation of its decision regarding the Reef, including the decision by Tony Abbott and Greg Hunt to allow the dumping of 3 million cubic metres of dredge spoil in Reef Waters at Abbot Point – despite the Government’s best efforts to have those words removed.

At its annual meeting, the Committee also reiterated its concern about the handover of federal environmental approval powers to the Queensland Government, labelling it as “premature”.

KJackson is either delusional or believes she is going to be protected. It is extremely laughable and quite ridiculous that the Commission do not have copies of bank statements relating to accounts she used as part of her role in the HSU. We have to believe that nothing is backed up on discs or computer files.

The Counsel assisting expected Bruce Wilson to remember stuff from over 20 years ago, and yet KJackson does not have to produce one shred of documentary evidence for stuff in this century

South Africa-based Desert Wolf told the BBC it had secured the sale of 25 units to a mining company after showing off the tech at a trade show.
"We cannot disclose the customer, but I am allowed to say it will be used by an international mining house.....firm says it can also be armed with dye-marker balls and solid plastic balls.

The machine can carry up to 4,000 bullets at a time as well as "blinding lasers" and on-board speakers that can communicate warnings to a crowd

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.