Red Sox hoping their young arms will eventually pay off

With the way Ben Cherington and his staff have approached this offseason, it’s clear that building a foundation from within now is more of a priority than it was in the final years of the Theo Epstein administration.

It’s easy to say that what the Red Sox need this season and in future seasons is consistent excellence in their starting pitching. Both the 2004 and 2007 World Series-winning Red Sox teams had starting pitching that ranked at or near the top of the American League. Where will that starting pitching come from? That’s not as easy to say. Part one of a three-part series.

With the way Ben Cherington and his staff have approached this offseason, it’s clear that building a foundation from within now is more of a priority than it was in the final years of the Theo Epstein administration. Prospects have been hoarded. Even a second-round draft pick was judged to be too steep a price to pay for Adam LaRoche or Nick Swisher.

Still, with pitching in particular, drafting and developing talent is exceedingly difficult. Red Sox fans are still waiting for Sun-Woo Kim, Brian Rose and Seung Song to pan out. Many are skeptical about the extent to which Boston is relying on the development of Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster — and understandably so. The odds that all three develop into All-Stars are slim.

Is that reason enough to go another route to build a starting rotation? Hardly.

Though many draft picks fail to pan out, the free-agent market is at least as inefficient. Recognizable names tend to drive up bidding among teams, but those recognizable names frequently bust, too — and those busts are far more costly.

An examination of the best starting rotations in baseball in recent years yields ample evidence that drafting and development — supplemented by a trade or two — remains the most efficient avenue for assembling a pitching staff.

Betting on either Barnes or De La Rosa to pan out remains a safer move than spending big money on the free-agent market like the Red Sox did with John Lackey. Trading a Barnes or De La Rosa for a young but established major-league starter — the way the Red Sox did with then-25-year-old Josh Beckett in 2005 — likewise echoes the way other teams have achieved success.

Of the five pitchers making up the 10 best starting rotations in the league in each of the last three seasons, 52 percent have come up through their team’s farm system as draft picks or international free agents. Another 24 percent have been acquired via trade — either as veterans for prospects (like Gio Gonzalez or Roy Halladay) or as a prospect who later blossomed (like Jair Jurrjens or Adam Wainwright). Still another eight percent could be classified as scrap-heap free agents who were more afterthoughts than sought after (like R.A. Dickey or Brandon McCarthy).

That doesn’t leave much for the top end of the free-agent auction. Of the big-ticket free agents to have been part of a top-end starting rotation in the last three years, only Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee actually could be considered an asset. Derek Lowe and Barry Zito have been part of terrific starting rotations in Atlanta and San Francisco, respectively, but those starting rotations would have been even better without them. No other big-ticket free agent has been a part of a top-10 rotation in the last three seasons.

More than 90 percent of pitchers making up the game’s best rotations either were developed, acquired via trade or signed as a middle-of-the-road free agent who incited more shrugs than cheers — like Ryan Dempster did in Boston, for example.

What does that mean for the Red Sox?

It doesn’t automatically mean hoarding an entire farm system’s worth of starting pitchers. Almost a quarter of the pitchers on top-10 starting rotations were acquired by trade. Boston should be willing to deal away one or two elite arms if a pitcher the caliber of James Shields, Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez — all traded in the last 15 months — becomes available on the trade market in the next year or two.

There’s a reason Boston drafted pitchers with eight of their first nine picks last June. Assembling an assembly line of young pitchers would allow Ben Cherington to trade from a position of strength in any such deal. Even if Barnes, De La Rosa or Webster develops into a star elsewhere, trading one or more wouldn’t hurt the Red Sox if another star or two comes up through the pipeline behind them.

But one ace pitcher, no matter how obtained, does not a rotation make. Teams that complement their best pitchers with free-agent acquisitions tend not to do very well. Teams that complement their best pitchers with homegrown talents tend to do better.

Take the Phillies, perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball over the last three seasons. The Phillies signed Lee and traded several top prospects for Halladay, but they’ve complemented Lee and Halladay with first-round pick Cole Hamels, third-round pick Vance Worley and seventh-round pick Kyle Kendrick.

The Washington Nationals traded a package of prospects for Gio Gonzalez and had the good fortune to draft Stephen Strasburg No. 1 overall, but they filled out their rotation with draft picks Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmermann to go along with mid-range free agent Edwin Jackson. The St. Louis Cardinals signed Kyle Lohse as a mid-range free agent but traded for Wainwright and Jake Westbrook and developed Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn in their farm system.

That a team can never have enough pitching is the oldest truism in baseball. Teams that have to build their pitching rotations through the free-agent market tend to be teams that don’t succeed.