I understand what those critics are saying and why they are saying it.

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There’s no scientific proof that shutting down Strasburg after 160-or-so innings (he’s at 133 1/3 now) is dramatically less risky than pitching him now–or two months ago, or ever.

You pitch, you’re at risk. You have surgery early in your career (as Strasburg did, of the Tommy John variety), you’re at extreme risk, no matter the pitch-count or innings-level.

If there’s no proof that 160 innings is a magic number, why not keep pitching Strasburg into October, since this is the most important October of his or his teammates’ lives?

Good point. I’m not saying it’s wrong.

Still, as most of you know, I’m a pitch-count guy; I believe that high-stress at an early age can be very troublesome for a pitcher’s arm, and that once there’s an injury, caution is almost always the wisest path.

You can’t guarantee that a guy won’t ever get hurt again. But you can protect him; in some ways, it’s the responsibility of management TO protect him, despite the immediate needs of the moment.

And the Nationals–in a clunky way, at a tough time–are choosing the path of protection for an incredibly valuable piece of their future. It’s controversial, and GM Mike Rizzo is sticking to his decision.

I can’t argue with that, either. I think Washington probably could’ve avoided some of this by quietly skipping a few Strasburg starts earlier in the season, just to ease his workload, keep him fresh and, by the way, keep that innings count under control.

Heck, they could even do it now, to free him up for some October starts under the innings limit; but it’s so public that Rizzo probably might just want to do the total shutdown once and for all.

There’s no scientific proof for any of this, but in the Bay Area, we are staring at a couple of interesting examples of young pitchers dealing with high-stress situations, too.

In his last seven starts from July 7 on, just after crossing 100-inning mark, Parker has started to get hit hard–the A’s have done some manuevering to get Parker and other young pitchers (see below) some extra days off, but maybe Parker especially could use a longer break.

He has a 5.05 ERA in his last 7 starts, which has raised his season ERA from 2.46 (back when he was at 101 innings for the season and had just thrown 6 2/3 strong innings to beat Boston on July 2 to the current 3.71.

Last year, Parker threw a total of 136 1/3 innings in the majors and minors.

And yes, Parker had Tommy John surgery after the 2009 season and missed all of 2010.
I’m not raising a Strasburg-level emergency flag on Parker, and I’m not saying his recent struggles have anything to do with arm troubles.

I’m just saying: Look at the numbers; young arms sometimes hit a wall in the late-going, and Parker has obviously run into some trouble.

* Fellow A’s roookie Tom Milone’s last outing came over the weekend, when he gave up 6 ER in 6 innings in a loss to Toronto, and raised his season innings total to 140 1/3.

It also raised his ERA to 3.91. Only four starts ago, it was 3.34.

In his last three starts–encompassing 19 innings, starting when his season innings total was at 121 1/3–Milone has given up 16 ER and has an ERA of 7.58.

Milone has a different innings track record than Parker, though. Last year, Milone threw a total of 174 1/3 innings in the majors and minors, so it’s not like he’s never been this deep into a season.

But he could probably use some freshening up, too, and I’m sure the A’s are considering it for both of these prize rookies. (Another top rookie, A.J. Griffin, is already on the DL.)

* Another look at Strasburg, who, again, starts today having thrown 133 1/3 innings. It’s almost exactly two years since his Tommy John surgery, by the way.

He’s averaging slightly less than 6 innings per start, which means he has between 4 and 5 average starts before he gets to the 160 limit.

Last year his teammate Jordan Zimmerman was limited to just over 160 innings a year removed from his own Tommy John surgery.

* It’s important to point out that caution is NOT ALWAYS necessary.

Madison Bumgarner, who threw a beautiful game to beat Washington last night, was pushed hard in his first season with the Giants in 2010–and those were rather big innings late in that season, you may recall.

Bumgarner, who didn’t turn 21 until August 2010, threw a total of 214 1/3 innings in Triple-A plus his stint the Giants in the regular season and into the postseason.

He’d thrown 131 1/3 innings combined in 2009.

That’s a big jump, at a very young age, into the postseason cauldron when his arm should’ve been most at risk and…

It didn’t bother Bumgarner then and hasn’t bothered him since and you could argue that blowing through such a heavy workload might’ve strengthened him for later in his career.

THIS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

There will always be true horses like Bumgarner who can pitch tons of innings when they’re young, middle-aged or probably when he’s 40.

And again, those were crucial innings in October 2010. If your franchise is going for it, that will weigh in the reasoning, too, and justifiably.

But you can err on the side of caution with valuable young arms most times and probably should, in my opinion.

* Oh, this is not quite the same, because Johan Santana is a very mature pitcher, obviously, but…

Since throwing a career-high 134 pitches while tossing the first no-hitter in Mets franchise history on June 1, Santana has been… not good.

In seven starts since then, Santana has a 7.98 ERA and one trip to the DL (for a sprained ankle) and got blasted in his return on Saturday.

Tim Kawakami

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If they’re going to sit Strasburg, why not give him a rest now so he’s available for the play-offs?

Leonard Bonilla

I have been pushing for Pitchers to use swimming as a training regime for a long time now. Swimming produces long thin muscles and flexibility that pitchers need. I recently found out that Dennis Ekersley used to swim for his training and that he agrees that it is the best regime for pitchers. Look how long he pitched with no arm problems. I realize he may not have pitched as manny innings as a starter but he pitched for a long time and every inning was a high stress inning.