More bad news for Democrat David Weprin as we head into the final hours before voters hit the polls in NY-9: A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Republican Bob Turner leading him by 47-41%. If Republicans win this race on Tuesday its real-world evidence of how unpopular Barack Obama is right now, said PPP President Dean Debnam. Approval polls are one thing, but for the GOP to win in a heavily Democratic district like this would send a strong message about how unhappy voters are.

A Siena poll released Friday also found Turner ahead by six points in the battle to replace ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner.

"55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year, a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, 'Well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine.' But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern."

If you look at the endorsements of Turner from heavy hitters like Koch, Giuliani and Hikind and compare then to this poll, you can see Turner pulling this out. Weprin doesn’t even live in the district. This will be a fantastic defeat for Chucky Shummer. He hand picked Weprin and is making sure he has plenty of cash. The Rats will point fingers at him for turning his old house seat red.

2
posted on 09/12/2011 3:33:17 PM PDT
by Lazlo in PA
(Now living in a newly minted Red State.)

If you look at the endorsements of Turner from heavy hitters like Koch, Giuliani and Hikind and compare then to this poll, you can see Turner pulling this out. Weprin doesnt even live in the district. This will be a fantastic defeat for Chucky Shummer. He hand picked Weprin and is making sure he has plenty of cash. The Rats will point fingers at him for turning his old house seat red.

The rats cannot afford to lose this. They will win "By Whatever Means Necessary". They will have Armies of the Undead marching on the district from NJ and Long Island if they need to. Be prepared for massive vote fraud.

I would love to see a GOP pickup here in that seat -- even if it's only temporary before the district is gerrymandered out of existence.

But I would also caution about putting too much stock in these results, too. Remember, this is a Congressional seat where the Democrat who previously held it was drummed out of office after one of the most disgraceful (and comical) scandals you'll ever see.

In some ways, this could play out similar to the 2008 race in New York's 13th District, which includes Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. In that race in a traditionally Republican district, incumbent Vito Fossella decided not to run for re-election in the aftermath of a DUI scandal that later grew into a sex scandal when details of the case emerged. Democrat Michael McMahon won the 2008 election in that district, only to lose in 2010 to political neophyte and Tea Party candidate Michael Grimm.

Rat fraud is always in effect, but if this poll is correct, which I think it is in comparison to others, 6% is a hard number for Rats to overcome with fraud. Plus having big Rat players like Hikind and Koch involved make the obvious routes for cheating tough to hide. They are very respected old school Rats in that area.

12
posted on 09/12/2011 4:43:53 PM PDT
by Lazlo in PA
(Now living in a newly minted Red State.)

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