Spread the good Greenko Group word on social media

(GKO: 104p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p a couple of years ago ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013), but operationally the company continues to hit its milestones.

Following a change of financial year-end, power generation of 1,565GWh in the nine months to end December 2014 was 46 per cent higher than in the previous 12-month period to produce an increase in revenues from $71m to $100m, slightly better than analysts had anticipated. There was an earnings beat, too: adjusted pre-tax profit of $35m (£23.6m) was $5m ahead of forecast even though a net finance charge of $40m was $6m higher than predicted, a consequence of the boards decision to sensibly hedge out the currency risk on its US dollar denominated debt. Last year, Greenko successfully raised $550m (£369m) though a five-year bond issued on the Singapore Stock Exchange and secured a US$125m (£84m) six-year credit line from EIG Global Energy Partners.

Importantly, the company looks set fair for the year ahead with the board reiterating guidance yesterday to hit operating generating capacity of 1GW during 2015, up from 715MW at the end of last year. The company currently has 550MW of wind and hydro projects under construction, and a further 1,350 MW at the development stage.

But there are a few negatives, too. Firstly, shareholders will have to wait for an inaugural dividend as the board now intend to consider a cash return at the time of the interim results in September. Analyst Adam Forsyth at Arden Partners had forecast a 2.5c a share dividend alongside this week's figures.

Secondly, factoring in slightly higher operating costs, cash profits for the 2015 fiscal year have been pared back a few percentage points to $121m, albeit this still represents a hefty increase on the $80m announced for the nine month reporting period in 2014. However, the hit to the pre-tax line is far greater. Thats because after accounting for the impact of higher net interest charges, and stripping out a $6.3m non-cash gain on acquisitions, Arden have sliced their 2015 pre-tax profit estimate by a quarter to $44.4m on revenues 85 per cent higher to $185m. Mr Forsyth has also adjusted his post-tax earnings estimates to account for a high minorities charge which means that Greenko is now expected to make net profits this year of $28.3m, rather than $47m previously forecast. Thats a big difference and on an EPS basis the downgrade is even greater partly due to dilution from the EIG warrants issued on the above fundraise, but also taking into account shares to be issued from previous fundraises.

Impact on EPS estimates

The Government of Singapore (GIC) which invested £100m a couple of years ago in Greenko Mauritius, and Global Environment Emerging Markets (invested in 2009), have the right to exchange their investments for shares in Greenko between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. This will lead to at least 74m new shares being issued. As a result Mr Forsyth now factors in an issued share capital of 243m shares this year, up from 153m at the end of 2014, rather than 210m in his previous estimates. The net result of all these adjustments is that Arden now expects Greenko to report EPS of 11.6¢ in 2015, or 7.9p a share, half his previous estimate.

The positive is that this still represents a step change on the EPS figure of 6.1¢ reported for the last fiscal year. And with the roll-out of the new power plants on track, then its realistic to expect Greenko to hit Mr Forsyths revenue figure of $258m for 2016. On this basis, cash profits rise again to $174m to produce pre-tax profits of $68.7m and EPS of 16.5¢, or 11p at current exchange rates. This means the shares are still only being rated on about 9 times earnings estimates for 2016, hardly a high rating for company tha By r21442

"I have decided to buy Greenko Group (GKO) a growing renewable energy company in India which is building a derisked portfolio of biomass, natural gas, hydropower and wind. The share price has been held back by an overhang of stock from a legacy fund.

The company has a good record of execution and should share in the very powerful Indian growth story: the country's last budget saw a quadrupling of spending in renewable energy. The robust tariff gives doubled earnings in the year to March and doubling again to 2016.

Fund group Impax owns 4% of the company and has a target price of 170p (the shares were trading at 105p yesterday). However, there will be no dividend as profits are used to grow the business and pay down the substantial debt." By r21442

Hard to see the downside here (although there always is). In spite of all the progress made the SP is almost right at the bottom of its 5 year trading range, so 112p looks a good entry point to me and I've dipped a toe in here. By Valuespotter

sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
an even balance between wind and hydro
projects on time, on budget etc....
infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
mgt team delivering on previous promises
economic backdrop favourable
very confident of future....

of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
(actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!

I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
which gives some upside to H2...
its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!

also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth

additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a 1bn established business

I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times

i was keen when the price was > 170p
as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
(maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)

I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top 5 holdings
By thirty fifty twenty

this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...

the upside is (almost) limitless
if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.

RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.

Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think

so great that they looking at various options
it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team

Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
rgds
binks By Binkley

Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.

Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO

11 November 2013

Greenko Group plc

("Greenko" or "the Company")

Wind Farm Commissioned

Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.

Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately 40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.

The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.

As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.

Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
By wishful thinking

Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.

I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.

I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.

I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?

My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!

Impact on EPS estimates
The Government of Singapore (GIC) which invested £100m a couple of years ago in Greenko Mauritius, and Global Environment Emerging Markets (invested in 2009), have the right to exchange their investments for shares in Greenko between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2017. This will lead to at least 74m new shares being issued. As a result Mr Forsyth now factors in an issued share capital of 243m shares this year, up from 153m at the end of 2014, rather than 210m in his previous estimates. The net result of all these adjustments is that Arden now expects Greenko to report EPS of 11.6¢ in 2015, or 7.9p a share, half his previous estimate.
The positive is that this still represents a step change on the EPS figure of 6.1¢ reported for the last fiscal year. And with the roll-out of the new power plants on track, then it’s realistic to expect Greenko to hit Mr Forsyth’s revenue figure of $258m for 2016. On this basis, cash profits rise again to $174m to produce pre-tax profits of $68.7m and EPS of 16.5¢, or 11p at current exchange rates. This means the shares are still only being rated on about 9 times earnings estimates for 2016, hardly a high rating for company that’s expected to increase EPS by 170 per cent over the next two financial years. And there are prospects of a dividend too, albeit later than original estimates.
Of course this growth is being debt funded and current net borrowings of $656m are forecast to rise to $919m by the end of 2015. Balance sheet gearing is over 150 per cent of shareholders funds of $428m. That may raise eyebrows for some investors, but interest cover is not an issue as Greenko’s sharply rising operating profits easily cover the finance charge on credit lines. Indeed, assuming net debt increases to $1.05bn at the end of 2016 as analysts predict, then it still only represents six times forecast operating profit of $174m for 2016, or 8 times the current year forecast of $121m.
So although the earnings downgrades take some of the shine off the investment case, and Greenko’s shares have fallen a long way from last autumn’s highs around 186p, I still feel they are under-rated on a bid-offer spread of 103p to 104p. So if you followed my advice to buy them at 123p ('Valuable points to make', 4 February 2015), I would hold for recovery.

Unloved Greenko
Aim-traded shares in Greenko (GKO: 104p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p a couple of years ago ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013), but operationally the company continues to hit its milestones.
Following a change of financial year-end, power generation of 1,565GWh in the nine months to end December 2014 was 46 per cent higher than in the previous 12-month period to produce an increase in revenues from $71m to $100m, slightly better than analysts had anticipated. There was an earnings beat, too: adjusted pre-tax profit of $35m (£23.6m) was $5m ahead of forecast even though a net finance charge of $40m was $6m higher than predicted, a consequence of the board’s decision to sensibly hedge out the currency risk on its US dollar denominated debt. Last year, Greenko successfully raised $550m (£369m) though a five-year bond issued on the Singapore Stock Exchange and secured a US$125m (£84m) six-year credit line from EIG Global Energy Partners.
Importantly, the company looks set fair for the year ahead with the board reiterating guidance yesterday to hit operating generating capacity of 1GW during 2015, up from 715MW at the end of last year. The company currently has 550MW of wind and hydro projects under construction, and a further 1,350 MW at the development stage.
But there are a few negatives, too. Firstly, shareholders will have to wait for an inaugural dividend as the board now intend to consider a cash return at the time of the interim results in September. Analyst Adam Forsyth at Arden Partners had forecast a 2.5c a share dividend alongside this week's figures.
Secondly, factoring in slightly higher operating costs, cash profits for the 2015 fiscal year have been pared back a few percentage points to $121m, albeit this still represents a hefty increase on the $80m announced for the nine month reporting period in 2014. However, the hit to the pre-tax line is far greater. That’s because after accounting for the impact of higher net interest charges, and stripping out a $6.3m non-cash gain on acquisitions, Arden have sliced their 2015 pre-tax profit estimate by a quarter to $44.4m on revenues 85 per cent higher to $185m. Mr Forsyth has also adjusted his post-tax earnings estimates to account for a high minorities’ charge which means that Greenko is now expected to make net profits this year of $28.3m, rather than $47m previously forecast. That’s a big difference and on an EPS basis the downgrade is even greater partly due to dilution from the EIG warrants issued on the above fundraise, but also taking into account shares to be issued from previous fundraises.

"In 2013 we were pleased to welcome the Government of Singapore (GIC) as new investors in our subsidiary holding company Greenko Mauritius (GM) with an investment of £100 million in Exchangeable shares. Both GIC and Global Environment Emerging Markets (GEEMF), who invested in 2009, have the opportunity to exchange their investment in GM for shares in the Company in the period 2015 to 2017, which when exchanged will significantly increase the equity capital base of the Company." So GIC exchange is at £2.60 which will give them 38,461,539 shares between 2015 and 2017
Regarding GEEMF from 2009 RNS when they invested $46m (£31.2m)...."The preference shares being issued are, in certain circumstances, convertible into approximately 29.99% of the enlarged share capital of Greenko at an effective price of 98p. A 98p conversion would give them 31,836,734 shares between 2015 and 2017.
From DigitalLook Currently 155,760,000 shares in issue. So am i reading this right? By 2017 if GIC and GEEMF take up all these new shares we will have a minimum total equity of 155,760,000 + 31,836,734 + 38,461,539 = 226,058,273 shares??
Is anyone able to confirm if this is correct? Also if so what will the revised EPS and PE and PEG ratios be based on the profit projections on Digital look and the newly inflated amount of shares?
Could this equity dilution between 2015 and 2017 be another reason for the sell off in recent months?

General fall in SP is probably due to cheap oil competing with renewables to power the grid. Once the oil market has rallied a little and supply falls slightly I expect to see greater investment in GKO. The long term future of GKO looks very promising, great hold for the future!

I am still amiss as to why the SP has nearly halved from the start of last year, even with the general sentiment and chaos in the energy industry.
Thanks for the results reminder. I may top up a few, looking over the ops update it should be a bumper set of results - "Power generation increased by 83% to 1,565 GWh compared to the same nine month period last year, and by 46% when compared to the previous twelve months."

According to the operational update released on 27 January, "The audited results for the 9 month period ending 31 December 2014 will be announced during March 2015" So we should presumably hear something Monday or Tuesday.
Sp.

According to the last trading update from the company, this company was on track to achieve record results and and secured sufficiently cheap debt to fund this growth and develop its pipeline of projects. So slightly confused on why this share is reaching for new lows just before pre year end close trading update.
Suspect the short seller are at it again on this stock

GKO have issued bonds in USD but earnings in Euro or Rupee and depreciation v USD . I suspect that could be the cause for Sp to tank as I can see no other reason unless there are corporate governance issues

In the equity development report, they say:
What’s more - although there does not appear to be any publicly disclosed ‘short
positions’ - we think the recent softness in the stock could be due to
interested parties wishing to push the price down. Maybe with the objective
of ‘shaking the tree’ to buy back later at a lower level – a tactic that has been
deployed many times before with smallcaps. S.