Cristobal Meanders and Strengthens

Tropical Storm Cristobal’s center is exposed this morning as some wind shear pushes the deeper convection to the south and east of the center which is marked with a red circle.

Overnight, Cristobal developed deeper convection and organized slightly. This allowed pressures to fall near the center and winds to increase. As of the 11am eastern advisory, Cristobal had maximum 1-minute sustained winds near 60mph and a minimum central pressure near 993mb.

Uncertainty in Cristobal’s track has decreased and it is now likely that Cristobal will continue to meander or slowly drift northward today, then accelerate northward and then northeastward Tuesday night. Continuing northeastward, Cristobal then passed to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday afternoon and evening. Cristobal then continues northeastward becoming extra-tropical in the central north Atlantic.

Currently, Cristobal’s deep convection is displaced to the east and south of the center because of a combination of northwesterly shear and some dry air on the west side of the storm. As Cristobal accelerate northwards, this wind shear decreases and Cristobal is expected to strengthen further into a minimal hurricane by Tuesday night. Further strengthening is possible, but is not expected as Cristobal passes northwest/north of Bermuda on Wednesday. Upper level winds are diffluent and divergent through Wednesday, so as wind shear decreases, there is a good chance for strengthening at a faster pace than what has been observed over the last few days.

Bermuda Weather Service radar at 1:23pm local time shows steady rain with a heavier band embedded over and near Bermuda.

Near record lows recorded yesterday of 70.3F associated with another day of heavy rain. Steady rain along a front near Bermuda today should move out by tonight, possibly ending with scattered thunderstorms. Showers are then possible Tuesday through Thursday as Tropical Storm Cristobal approaches from the southwest and then passes to the northwest and north of Bermuda. Shower activity increases on Wednesday, along with winds, as Cristobal makes its closest approach to the island. Small changes in the exact track and strength of Cristobal will have significant impacts on the shower activity and peak winds experienced on the island and Tropical Storm Watches may be required tonight or tomorrow morning. For the latest official information on Cristobal see the National Hurricane Center|Bermuda Weather Service.