(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 142005Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, A 150012Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 150222Z OCEANSAT IMAGE CONFIRM A DEFINED BUT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL, WHICH IS PRODUCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS FUELING A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LLCC. AS A RESULT OF THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND WEAK LLCC, THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 149.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152007Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND BECOME BROAD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 152350Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 160132Z OCEANSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG, BROAD TUTT CELL WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS FUELING LARGE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PERIPHERIES OF THE TUTT CELL. DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, MODEL DEVELOMENT IS SLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF GUAM. EIR DEPICTS A WEAK, ELONGATED LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED WEAKENING CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG, BROAD TUTT CELL WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS FUELING LARGE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PERIPHERIES OF THE TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. MSI DEPICTS A VERY BROAD LLCC THAT IS DEVOID OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. A 170222Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS AT THE CENTER WHILE WINDS IN THE PERIPHERIES RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE TUTT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 148.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A 180514Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM THAT IS DEVOID OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF TROUGHING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE MARIANAS...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 14 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO FOR GUAM AND ROTA COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 8 TO 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND MOVES.

SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNING FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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MIDDLEBROOKE

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a very wet windy and rainy day right now...wind gust in showers in the 30's and lowering pressure...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A WEAKER LLCC WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BROAD AND ELONGATED, LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPES A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YIGO... TAMUNING...FINEGAYAN STATION...TIYAN...DEDEDO...MARBO ANNEX AND ANDERSEN AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE INTHE WARNED AREA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALLCREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATEPRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSSSWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BYAUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OFRAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 15 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ON GUAM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT.

THIS SYSTEM STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MCELROY

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* AT 625 PM CHST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALL OF GUAM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO APRA HARBOR...YIGO...TAMUNING...FINEGAYAN STATION...BARRIGADA...CHALAN PAGO...MANGILAO...MONGMONG...ORDOT...TIYAN...TOTO...DEDEDO...MARBO ANNEX...ANDERSEN AFB...AGANA HEIGHTS AND SINAJANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALLCREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THEDANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVEUP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREASSUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TIYANGUAM.

TD east of Vietnam busted from becoming the next named TS.....now we have this, though all eyes are on Usagi. I wonder if this will also be a big player in WPAC..

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looks like an intense meso embedded located just west of guam producing winds up to 50 knots...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 190336Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 190222Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES CORE WINDS OF ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP TROUGH NEAR 160E LONGITUDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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WTPN21 PGTW 191700MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 148.8E TO 22.0N 146.6EWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 191432Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 15.5N 148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING. A 191136Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT HAVE NOT YET FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC. THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATES WEAKER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSING OFF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201700Z.//NNNN

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had work canceled yesterday and now today because of the severity of the rain and strong winds which are causing flooding throughout guam...a record was set yesterday when 7 inches fell in 24 hours and now way more is expected today through tomorrow...