I must confess that I'm a bit surprised that Paul isn't a bit closer to 20%...but then again, I've been surprised that there hasn't been more of a sustained "not Romney" vote of sorts in a few places (such as the South). Not shocked, but a bit surprised.

Perry's off the ballot. If he were on, I'd be pegging him to win somewhere over 20% without a campaign (let's see...popular Governor...ignored contest...lots of turnout for unrelated races...). If he'd gotten severely ticked off at Romney for some reason and decided to fight for seating "his" slate towards the end, I wouldn't bet against him pulling an upset if Romney didn't fight back (again, see the bit before and add in room for a "Perry for Texas" campaign to give Romney some real heartburn). Bear in mind he was still on 18% there when he dropped out of the race (vs. <10% nationally), and that was with four other "main" candidates in there.

However, unlike a lot of other cases, a lot of this would be "pro-Perry" voting as much as "anti-Romney" protest voting.