On 26 May, 2005, Marcia Crosse, Director of Health Care at the Government Accountability Office(GAO), testified (PDF) before the Subcommittee on Health, and the Committee on Energy and Commerce of the U.S. House of Representatives on pandemic preparedness in the US. The news is not good.

Some of the choicer comments:

Challenges regarding the nation’s preparedness for and response to an influenza pandemic remain. Specifically, our prior work has found that although CDC participated in an interagency working group that developed the U.S. plan for pandemic preparedness that was posted for public comment in August 2004, as of May 23, 2005, the plan had not been finalized. Further, we found that the draft plan does not address certain critical issues, including how vaccine for an influenza pandemic will be purchased, distributed, and administered; how population groups will be prioritized for vaccination; what quarantine authorities or travel restrictions may need to be invoked; and how federal resources should be deployed. At the state level, we found that most hospitals across the country lack the capacity to respond to large-scale infectious disease outbreaks.

...The draft plan delegates to the states responsibility for distribution of vaccine. The lack of a clearly defined federal role in distribution complicates pandemic planning for the states. Furthermore, among the current state pandemic influenza plans, there is no consistency in terms of their procurement and distribution of vaccine and the relative role of the federal government. Approximately half of the states handle procurement and distribution of the annual influenza vaccine through the state health agency. The remainder either operate through a third-party contractor for distribution to providers or use a combination of these two approaches.

Most annual influenza vaccine distribution and administration are accomplished within the private sector, with relatively small amounts of vaccine purchased and distributed by CDC or by state and local health departments. In the United States, 85 percent of vaccine doses are purchased by the private sector, such as private physicians and pharmacies. HHS has not yet determined how influenza vaccine will be distributed and administered during an influenza pandemic.

There are many issues surrounding the production of influenza vaccine, which will only become exacerbated during an influenza pandemic. Vaccines, which are considered the first line of defense to prevent or reduce influenza-related illness and death, may be unavailable or in short supply. Producing the vaccine is a complex process that involves growing viruses in millions of fertilized chicken eggs. Experience has shown that the vaccine production cycle takes at least 6 to 8 months after a virus strain has been identified, and vaccines for some influenza strains have been difficult to mass-produce, causing further delay. The lengthy process for developing a vaccine may mean that a vaccine would not be available during the initial stages of a pandemic.

Here is a wee bit of good news, namely that the US Government is spending money to guarantee purchase of vaccine so that manufacturers will maintain more production infrastructure:

...The agency’s fiscal year 2006 budget request includes an increase of $30 million for CDC to enter into guaranteed purchase contracts with vaccine manufacturers to ensure the production of bulk monovalent influenza vaccine. If supplies fall short, this bulk product can be turned into a finished trivalent influenza vaccine product for annual distribution. If supplies are sufficient, the bulk vaccine can be held until the following year’s influenza season and developed into vaccines if the circulating strains remain the same. In addition, according to CDC, this guarantee will help to expand the influenza market by providing an incentive to manufacturers to expand capacity and possibly encourage additional manufacturers to enter the market. In addition, the fiscal year 2006 budget request includes an increase of $20 million to support influenza vaccine purchase activities.

But, of course, the testimony basically ends on a downer:

Even if sufficient quantities of the vaccine are produced in time, vaccines against various strains differ in their ability to produce the immune response necessary to provide effective protection against the disease. Studies show that it is uncertain how effective a vaccine will be in preventing or controlling the spread of a pandemic influenza virus.