SA Fillies Classic preview

It's a crackerjack card of Saturday racing in Adelaide with black type from start to finish. The feature of the day, the time-honoured Goodwood is too high profile for our man, Tyson Hamilton, he fancies his chances in the Group III SA Fillies Classic instead. Follow him on Twitter, @tyhamilton24.

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Morphettville Race 2 – SA Fillies Classic

We landed a two point profit on my debut preview, the Emancipation Stakes, nothing huge but better than a loss. Let’s see if we can find something here.
I will preface this preview with the note that there are two different veins of form line going into this 3yo Group III; those horses that have been racing against their own age and those competing with the older horses (albeit in weaker grades). As we know, the three year olds have dominated Australian group racing over the last two months. However, I will note that the superstar form lines that have proved so profitable aren't as prevalent over these longer distance races. Beating older horses is never easy so I think that the open age race form needs to be respected.

Summerbliss
A filly fifth run in from a spell and should be at peak fitness. Comes over from Sydney where she was racing in generally better company than what has been engaged here.
A first up fourth to Hai Lil at Valley was followed by a second 1600m trip finished a 1.5l 3rd to You’re So Good again at the Valley. Made ground late on both occasion and was clearly seeking a bit more ground. Her next two starts were over 2000m and 2400m against some good quality opposition on seemingly less than ideal ground (slow and heavy). Norzita got a 7l win on her on the slow track (however she did turn the tables on You’re So Good that day). Royal Descent delivered a fantastic performance to belt the field over 2400m (after some suggestion it wouldn't like the surface. Ha!). Summerbliss crawled in 19l behind. She was understandably vetted that day with no irregularities found.
It will be three weeks since the defeat to Royal Descent which could be key. A two week gap after running on the heavy Randwick surface has seen a few horses deliver flattish performances. Nolen has a great record in Adelaide and the Kent/Nolen combo runs at an impressive 23.1%!

Proper Madam
Interesting runner. Looking at her campaign so far I would say she has been aimed for this race. Started with a 1200 then a 1400, 1700, 1800 and finally her last start over the 2000 in the Australasian Oaks. I’ve rewatched the last two runs a few times. The start over 1800 was full of merit, sat back, moved wide, made ground and finished strongly 2.5l off the leader beating home the here engaged La Zuma and Weekend Hussy. In the Australasian Oaks, again went back, moved wide and made ground. Was outsprinted by the fast finishing La Zuma that day but settled into stride nicely and was improving over the line. Looks like the 2500m won’t worry her.
She is currently $13 on Sportsbet with La Zuma $3.80. La Zuma finished well last start but probably no better than Proper Madam the start before. I think that is too big a difference given the last 2 starts.

La Zuma
She has been mentioned above in her duels with Proper Madam her last two starts. Her last run would suggest she is capable but has been well beaten by Summerbliss over the 2500m once before.
I would suggest $3.80 is too short to take with any confidence.

Averau
She landed a 4.5l win two starts back albeit against much weaker company than this. The horses she beat home haven’t really fired a shot since and she was subsequently convincingly beaten in a FMB89 last start. I can’t recommend a bet on that basis.

Her to Eternity
NZ import having third start on Australian soil. She finished around Proper Madam last time (circa five lengths off Maybe Discreet, Australasian Oaks) but didn't really stride home as nicely as what I think Proper Madam did that day. Form in NZ isn't overly impressive and I won’t be betting on her.

Happy Highway
She is on a six day backup after securing a restricted 62 win over 1900m on the Geelong Synthetic. The start before that belted a maiden field at Swan Hill by 8.5l. Despite this was well beaten by the also nominated Let’s Make Adeal over 1600m on the 11th of April. I know she gets an extra 800m to make up the difference but I just can’t see her beating that horse home, and I don’t think that horse will win.

Yantar
Tried sitting on the speed in the Australasian Oaks which, to me, was a bit of a surprise given her starts (and wins) prior to that came from the field and further back. Maybe the jockey found himself well placed from the jump but she didn’t survive the tempo and strolled in 15th, 8l off the winner.
Dwayne Dunn jumps aboard, supported by a 20% strike rate at Morphettville I think we will see a better race from her this time out. Even so I don’t think she will see out the trip as strongly as a few of the before mentioned horses.

Let’s Make Adeal
Beat home Princess Deauville two starts back over 1600m by 1.3l.
Princess Deauville then went on to record a 6l maiden win at Seymour, then followed that with a 1.3l 2nd to a horse called American Gee. American Gee however was previously been spanked by Averau. On that basis I have to place Let’s Make Adeal below Averau and I can’t see her making the necessary improvement to win a race likes this at the moment.

Wowee
A semi-realistic blowout chance. I’m going to draw a longish bow but follow me here, $18 shots are rarely going to have obvious form lines.
Two starts back Wowee finished 4l off the five year old gelding Mujadale over 2200m in a curiously run race. Mujadale tracked a fast tempo leader that went harder than our man Jim that time the sexy foreign exchange student Nadia came over to study. The leader understandably died-off with 400m to go. Mujadale capitalised on this gift of a run, took over and won by 4l as mentioned. Wowee though, ran with the field, finishing well and beating the pack nicely, including a horse called Old Bill.
Mujadale followed this up with an R-78 2350m at Warnambool winning by 0.2l over Old Bill. Mujadale this time led throughout in a much truer style ran race just beating Old Bill by a nose.
Mujadale is now an $8 shot in the follow up event to this one, an open age Group 3.
To me, you put Mujadale in this 3yo-Group 3 and he comes up nearer the top of betting. I am somewhat confident that had the 2200m been run without premature-Jim, Wowee would’ve gone extremely close to Mujadale and the 2500m should only help.

Weekend Hussy
Shouldn’t win.

Clear Direction
Can’t have her either. Well you can, but I reckon you’ll regret it the next day.

Where our money goes?
Summerbliss looks to have the potential to come out and record a nice victory. She should have recovered from the form-sapping Randwick heavy and will appreciate the good or close to good track Adelaide will deliver. At $2.70 though I am going to pass and try and find a bit of value.
Whilst I think Wowee has the ability to give it a shake at $18/$4.50 I believe Proper Madam is a safer E/W bet at $13 and $3.50. We will go with Proper Madam E/W.
In a vain attempt to pay for a quarter share in a nice Snitzel colt I like, I will probably have a 4 horse boxed tri including Summerbliss, Proper Madam, Wowee and La Zuma.

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Former Head of Education at Betfair, now in the outside world stirring up controversy, keeping punters informed and doing a bit of consulting and writing. Proud Australian who has been 'visiting' London for a few too many years now. Available for betting editorial, previews and industry comment. Contact me at scottf at journalist.com.Now regularly covering major race meetings and sporting events via guest blogger previews. Keen to have a go? Drop me a line...