WASHINGTON—French President
Emmanuel Macron
said it was his “bet” that President
Donald Trump
would withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, a move he said would lead to a period of heightened tensions with an outcome that was hard to predict.

Mr. Macron traveled to Washington this week hoping to persuade Mr. Trump to stay in the 2015 accord, under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Germany’s Chancellor
Angela Merkel
is bringing a similar case to Washington Friday.

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President Donald Trump hosted French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House Tuesday. The two leaders discussed the 2015 Iran nuclear accord. Photo: Getty Images

After meeting with Mr. Trump on Tuesday, Mr. Macron laid out a proposal for an expanded agreement with Iran. He said Wednesday that this so-called new deal was designed to provide a framework for discussions and not leave a void should Mr. Trump decide by his May 12 deadline to withdraw.

Speaking to a small group of reporters Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Macron said he didn’t know what Mr. Trump would decide but “I think he will get rid of it on his own.” He added that the tension a U.S. withdrawal would inevitably create “could be fruitful, if we avoid an increasing tension going to war.”

Mr. Trump set a May 12 deadline by which he demanded Europe and Congress must address his concerns with the accord on inspections, expiring restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Officials from the U.S., France, Germany and the U.K. have been meeting since January to reach a side agreement on these concerns to try to persuade Mr. Trump not to leave the deal.

Mr. Macron said he warned Mr. Trump that if he withdrew from the agreement without an alternative, “you open Pandora’s box” and “replicate past mistakes” in the region, including a heightened possibility of war with Iran.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said no one knows what he will do about the accord, but said to Mr. Macron, “you have a pretty good idea.”

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On Tuesday, Mr. Macron proposed forging a new pact with Mr. Trump that he said should preserve key provisions of the 2015 nuclear accord as the “first pillar” of a broader framework for international talks on Iran. Those negotiations, Mr. Macron said, also would focus on how to curb Iran’s ballistic-missile program, contain its influence in the Middle East and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons after some provisions in the nuclear deal expire in 2025.

The French president also predicted that a move by Mr. Trump to leave the deal could complicate diplomacy with North Korea. He said he made that case to Mr. Trump.

“It is not good when the last-resort player of the game decides just to change its position I think,” Mr. Macron said. “It can work on the short term but it is very insane on the mid to long term and that is why I am very concerned by that—that for me is the main concern.”

In his case to Mr. Trump, Mr. Macron said he noted that the U.S. had played a leading role in the Paris climate agreement, the formation of the World Trade Organization and the Iran deal. When a decision is made to rescind those agreements, it raises a question of “how to convince those non-cooperative powers to follow the common rule.”

Mr. Trump’s answer was the Iran deal was a bad one and he doesn’t want to persuade the North Koreans to replicate such a deal, Mr. Macron said.

Mr. Macron said that he believed Mr. Trump viewed his coming meeting with North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un,
after months of heightened international sanctions and aggressive posturing, as an experience that demonstrated that a tough stance can move the other side and “you can go to a good deal, or a better deal.” Mr. Macron noted, however, that there wasn’t yet any agreement with North Korea.

Earlier Wednesday, Mr. Macron used the address to Congress to issue a plea to Mr. Trump and the U.S. to maintain its role as a global defender of democracy and human rights, warning American lawmakers of a “critical moment” in which international institutions could crumble.

“If we do not act with urgency as a global community, I am convinced that the international institutions, including the United Nations and NATO, will no longer be able to exist,” Mr. Macron said, referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. He added that authoritarian countries “will then fill the void we leave.”

The dire tone of Mr. Macron’s address provided a striking counterpoint to the rest of his three-day trip to Washington, which was filled with high ceremony and public displays of affection with Mr. Trump. With the backslapping over, Mr. Macron stood before Congress Wednesday and delivered remarks that challenged the tenets of Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda.