In their 31st year of issuing hurricane forecasts, the research team predicts an emerging El Niño event along with cooling waters in the tropical Atlantic Ocean should lead to decreased tropical storm activity — about 60 percent of an average season. Storm activity in 2013 was near 40 percent of the average season, the forecast said.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” said Phil Klotzbach, co-author of the forecast. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”

The forecast calls for nine named storms during the 2014 hurricane season, with three expected to become hurricanes and only one to reach major hurricane strength (sustained winds of at least 111 mph).

Information from the Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal HurricaneActivity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2014 (via Colorado State University)

Forecasted landfall probabilities predict a 35 percent chance a hurricane will hit somewhere along the entire U.S. coastline, a decline from the 52 percent average over the last century.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. The CSU research team will update their forecast on June 2 and July 31.

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