Monday, June 13, 2016

Semiconductor Fabrication Growth for 2016 and 2017

Estimates by SEMI.org for 2016 and 2017 fab
growth are in the article below.

However Intel/ Micron's XPoint memory
introduction in 2016 and developments of other type of 3D processing will
impact fab lines capacity and the growth of semiconductor processing equipment.

Some key points from the article:

"Fab equipment spending- ....activity in
the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment
spending up to $36 billion in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in
2017, up 13%."

"leading-edge technologies...also in 3D
technologies....more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also
additional new fabs and lines may begin construction."

Nineteen new fabs
and lines are forecasted to begin construction in 2016 and 2017, according to
SEMI.

While semiconductor fab equipment spending is off to a
slow start in 2016, it is expected to gain momentum through the end of the
year. For 2016, 1.5% growth over 2015 is expected while 13% growth is forecast
in 2017.

Fab equipment spending – including new, secondary, and
in-house – was down 2% in 2015. However, activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic,
and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to $36 billion
in 2016, 1.5% over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13%.

Equipment will be purchased for existing fabs, lines that
are being converted to leading-edge technology, as well as equipment going into
new fabs and lines that began construction in the prior year.

Table 1 shows the regions where new fabs and lines are
expected to be built in 2016 and 2017. These projects have a probability of 60%
or higher, according to SEMI’s data. While some projects are already underway,
others may be subject to delays or pushed into the following year.

Breaking down the 19 projects by wafer size, 12 of the
fabs and lines are for 300mm (12-inch), four for 200mm, and three LED fabs
(150mm, 100mm, and 50mm). Not including LEDs, the potential installed capacity
of all these fabs and lines is estimated at almost 210,000 wafer starts per
month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2016 and
330,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning
construction in 2017.

In addition, the transition to
leading-edge technologies (as we can see in planar technologies, but also in 3D
technologies) creates a reduction in installed capacity within an existing fab.
To compensate for this reduction, more conversions of older fabs may take
place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction.