2014-11-17

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Oakland is finally officially eliminated, and New England takes over the AFC favorite spot. In the last two years, the first elimination came in week 12, with 2-9 Atlanta and 1-10 Kansas City earning the honors in 2013 and 2012.

In the NFC, the first team has reached a 99% certainty of a playoff spot, which of course is 9-1 Arizona. This is significantly later than 2012 when Houston managed it at 6-1 in week 7, and 2013, when Kansas City reached it by going 8-0 in week 8.

Earlier this week, when I saw Denver was only favored by 9.5 to 10.5 points over the Rams, I told a friend of mine that sounded like easy money, I should bet on Denver, but unfortunately there's no legal sports book nearby, nor do I "know a guy who knows a guy". The result of that game is why I don't gamble. As that game unfolded I kept waiting for the Rams collapse and for Peyton Manning to take control, but it never happened. I'm not giving up on the Rams just yet, even though their chances are pretty minuscule at this point. They do still have a game against the Raiders, so at least there's that.

TEAM

Record

Strength

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

GB

7-3

0.662

53.695

87.646

68.963

40.140

22.921

12.551

BAL

6-4

0.656

33.715

53.310

34.506

18.625

10.187

5.592

NE

8-2

0.650

90.357

95.472

86.561

48.624

26.619

14.434

KC

7-3

0.648

51.779

87.208

68.244

38.003

20.488

11.067

ARI

9-1

0.631

90.352

99.080

94.570

52.827

27.920

14.349

DAL

7-3

0.594

45.330

73.935

47.857

23.074

11.237

5.346

DEN

7-3

0.593

43.369

77.228

54.901

26.543

12.516

6.038

IND

6-4

0.592

80.551

82.278

46.643

22.065

10.439

5.028

MIA

5-5

0.591

6.992

25.485

14.321

6.751

3.239

1.556

SEA

6-4

0.587

6.452

40.672

24.175

11.306

5.396

2.524

DET

7-3

0.585

45.826

81.331

57.453

27.853

13.156

6.138

PHI

7-3

0.580

54.614

71.804

44.679

20.873

9.858

4.546

SD

6-4

0.559

4.852

24.532

12.995

5.707

2.542

1.137

HOU

5-5

0.554

19.389

30.571

15.783

6.811

2.966

1.313

CLE

6-4

0.548

17.452

30.398

15.791

6.690

2.873

1.255

PIT

6-4

0.541

24.082

42.096

23.539

9.879

4.149

1.785

SF

6-4

0.539

3.176

39.395

20.754

8.674

3.716

1.562

NO

4-6

0.516

55.208

55.231

23.350

9.215

3.718

1.484

BUF

5-5

0.514

2.651

7.664

3.528

1.391

0.559

0.226

CIN

6-3-1

0.506

24.752

43.694

23.170

8.905

3.422

1.358

ATL

4-6

0.468

36.896

36.917

13.935

4.893

1.753

0.619

CHI

5-5

0.411

0.450

5.074

1.856

0.553

0.173

0.052

MIN

4-6

0.411

0.030

0.546

0.183

0.055

0.018

0.005

WAS

3-7

0.398

0.022

0.067

0.021

0.006

0.002

0.001

NYG

3-7

0.388

0.034

0.057

0.018

0.005

0.001

0.000

STL

4-6

0.356

0.019

0.348

0.100

0.025

0.007

0.002

TB

2-8

0.345

0.383

0.383

0.104

0.026

0.006

0.002

CAR

3-7-1

0.341

7.513

7.514

1.982

0.475

0.118

0.029

TEN

2-7

0.338

0.059

0.064

0.017

0.004

0.001

0.000

NYJ

2-8

0.326

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

OAK

0-10

0.287

-

-

-

-

-

-

JAC

1-9

0.281

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)