Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 4-hour time frame so the path of least resistance might be to the downside. However, the gap between the moving averages has narrowed and an upward crossover seems imminent. If this materializes, bitcoin price could enjoy another push higher as more buyers join the mix.

The next ceiling is located at the $1100 mark then at the $1300 highs at the start of January. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions, though, and appears to be turning lower to suggest a return in bearish pressure. Similarly, RSI is in the overbought zone and reflecting exhaustion among buyers.

A rising trend line can be drawn to connect the lows since mid-January, and this support area is located at $950, close to the broken consolidation resistance and the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages. A break below this area could show a return in bearish pressure and mark the start of another selloff.

Market Events

Dollar weakness has worked in favor of BTCUSD gains recently, as traders are now reacting to the lack of hawkishness in the FOMC statement. In their December announcement, policymakers suggested room for three interest rate hikes this year but their latest announcement didn’t offer any strong clues about a potential tightening move in March.

The attention could now turn to the NFP report due on Friday as traders set the bar higher for the actual results now that the ADP report and ISM survey indicated positive hiring momentum. Downbeat results could spur more dollar weakness against bitcoin price while strong data could force BTCUSD to return some of its recent gains.