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Shrimp processors in Vietnam, which may get more U.S. seafood to fillet, peel, and otherwise value-add toMaisie Ganzler

An estimated $900 million worth of American-caught or -farmed seafood — from fish sticks to cod fillets — may get a lot more expensive thanks to the U.S.’s current trade war with China.

How? Well, last month the Trump administration proposed a 10% duty on a wide range of imports from China, including many varieties of fish. Trade representatives will finalize the tariffs, which could increase to 25%, in September. While these tariffs are designed to punish China for unfair trade practices, when it comes to seafood, it’s the U.S. that may be on the hook.

Here’s a surprising fact: In many cases seafood labeled as “from China” is actually American. That $900 million of seafood I mentioned earlier? It’s seafood that is first caught or raised in the U.S., sent to China for processing, and then subsequently imported back into the U.S. by companies that sell it to American consumers.

Why would pink salmon or squid that’s caught in U.S. waters be labeled a product of China? Well, thanks to our confusing Country of Origin Labeling law (COOL for short), American products that undergo a “substantial transformation” abroad — such as calamari being breaded or pink salmon being filleted and canned — must then be labeled as coming from the country where they were processed. For example, in some cases a package of frozen “Alaskan Cod” fillets may say “product of China” on the back. The fish was caught in Alaska, but it was cleaned, filleted, and frozen in China. (If you’re interested in more, the USDA has a good blog post on the subject.)

If this sounds incredibly inefficient, yes, it is — until you start trying to make sense out of dollars.

Our food system has gone global because price competitiveness hinges on cheap labor. Cheap labor is hard to come by in the U.S., though it should be noted that immigrant farmworkers are the lowest-paid laborers in the country. So companies outsource the processing of meat, seafood, and sometimes produce to workers in other countries.

Processing seafood is still something humans do better and more cheaply than machines — for nowMaisie Ganzler

The rub is that our hunger for cheap food — which in seafood and in other food industries, is really a hunger for cheap labor — compounded by COOL laws may ultimately endanger the livelihoods of small- and medium-scale fisherfolk in America. If up to a 25% tariff hits American-caught or -raised seafood that’s being processed in China, profits for fisheries and aquaculture operations will plummet, and that may lead to U.S. job losses as well as rising prices for consumers.

I fear that when it comes down to it, Americans as a whole aren’t ready to pay more for their seafood, even if doing so could benefit American fisherfolk.

I started working in restaurants at 14 and have spent 20+ years with a $1.3 billion food-service company, where I am now chief strategy and brand officer. I’ve overseen the launch of our Farm to Fork local purchasing program in 1999, our switch to sustainable seafood in 2002...