152 Responses to “Obama Leads GOP in PA”

47/47 approval disapproval as the most polarizing president ever (read: New York and California are disproportionately represented in the approval ratings) and somehow he is at or near 50% in all swing states.

NBP released Friday the results of a poll it conducted between Feb. 15-17. Officials say they selected registered South Dakota voters are random. The question on choosing a GOP candidate drew 302 responses, with a margin of error of 5.64 percent. The question on a head-to-head race drew 559 responses, with a margin of error of 4.15 percent.

Let me get this straight. Somehow Jensen would have us believe that Santorum would run significantly better in Pa than Romney? For that to happen, Santorum would have to be running better in the Philly suburbs than Romney. Yeah, right!!

Times like this when I wish MD was back so he could punch holes in this bogus poll of his home state.. Since he’s not, I guess I’ll hav to do it.

11…yes and no. The GOP candidate gets PA if the whole thing is a blow-out anyway. I mean if Mitt keeps Massachusetts in single digit margin, makes MI too close to call, and easily wins NH, OH, FL, VA and NC, then PA could fall. If the election is at all close, then we probably don’t get PA.

While I’m not saying PA is going R this year, you cannot ignore the changing demographics. The Democratic Party has made the conscious decision to ignore white working class folks and become the party of the poor, the young, and the minorities. There are many, many working class white folks in PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, and IA. These states will be moving to the R column over the next few cycles if the Democrats continue on the path they are on.

And don’t think these switches can’t happen rapidly. Vermont went Republican in every election (except 1964) from 1860-1988. Bush41 won VT in ’88 then lost to Clinton by 16 points in ’92. By ’96, the spread was already over 20 points. MO, as well, has gone from a historical bellwether to reliable Republican in a matter of a couple elections. Voting patterns aren’t set in stone – they are always changing.

I do not pretend to know what will happen in November. The boundaries that I see are:

On the good side: Mitt wins in a modest landslide, capturing 363 EVs including these states: FL, NH, NC, VA, OH, IA, WI, CO, NV, PA, MI, ME, MN, NM and OR. Other blue states were suprisingly close, and the GOP stomps further down the ballot. This happens if the middle east continues to disintigrate, and both Jews and Catholics turn against Obama as he continues to poke them in the eye throughout the campaign. Then gas soars beyond $5 a gallon and stays there throughout campaign, and unemployment does not improve, and housing values continue to decline, and more bailouts are demanded.

On the bad side: Obama wins, getting all the states he got last time, except losing IN which flips back red. This happens if unemployment gets back down under 8% in a bogus calculation, and people believe we are on the cusp of recovery. Gas prices get back down, and the middle-east suddenly becomes quiet again. At this extreme, the GOP does hold the house, but fails to capture the senate.

This isn’t about Romney winning PA, but common sense. Common sense would tell us that Santorum who was defeated in a historic landslide not that not ago is not 2% behind Obama. In a state were the Philly suburbs decide the election.

“Oops! An independent group backing Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination has started sending out mailers to Louisiana voters in advance of the state’s March 24 primary—but didn’t quite get the details right for advising voters. Restore Our Future, a super PAC helping to finance television ads, automated phone calls and direct mail to support Romney, told voters in the Louisiana mailer they should vote for Romney on Tuesday, March 24. But the primary actually falls on a Saturday, not Tuesday. The mailer went out around north Louisiana, criticizing Rick Santorum as a big-spending Washington insider and calling Romney, the front-runner, a strong conservative leader. No word yet on whether a new mail piece will go out to the same homes to tell people the correct voting day.”

Is this an attempt at one of those Gingrich supporters vote on Tuesday, Republicans on Saturday flyers that we hear about every 4 years? Not really sure what to expect here in Louisiana. I have been getting Robo-calls from Gingrich and his ads are all over local talk radio stations here in town. I was polled (I think we all know how painful that can be) by what appeared to be a Romney firm. I was asked to press a corresponding number for the candidate for whom I was likely to vote. Then when I pressed it asked me if i was “aware of” a list of negative traits about the candidate I selected. I think everyone here seems resigned to Romney as the nominee not sure how that will translate on voting day.

Yes, both Romney & Santorum should win Pennsylvania. However, it is Ohio that will detemine the winner. Don't discount Santorum in PA. HE did win twice and you have to remember how conservative Casey SR was.

And, don't get into an idea that Obama wins if he gets the unemployment under 8%. They have already been massaging the numbers, of course the official stats will be under 8%. FIVE PERCENT is where it should be. Obama has NO chance to win in N.C., for example.

Today on Hannity, he was talking to two pollsters.
One fellow is on Hannity’s night show often. He is a Dem pollster and is taking about starting a third party with Huntsman and I didn’t get the other name. Hannity said “I’ll never forgive you if you do that.”

Republican primary voters in Alabama and Mississippi say being able to defeat President Obama in 2012 is the most important quality in a Republican presidential candidate, according to CBS News early exit polls.

In Alabama, thirty-nine percent of voters said defeating Mr. Obama was the most important candidate quality; in Mississippi, 42 percent of Republican primary voters said the same thing.

I’ve just looked at the exit data released by Fox and CNN. It suggests to me Santorum will win Alabama while Santorum and Romney are neck and neck in Mississippi. The numbers didn’t look so good for Newt.

Sean invited political consultants Doug Schoen and Ed Rollins to the show to discuss the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Sean asked the experts whether or not it would be beneficial to the party if the candidates took the race all the way to the Republican convention. Sean also addressed the possibility of a third party candidate jumping in to the presidential race, which both guests felt is likely. You can listen to the entire discussion with Schoen and Rollins….. Go Here for the rest of the post.http://www.hannity.com/videos/?uri=channels/400391/1623039%20

“Governor Romney is best suited to fix our economy,” Gerlach said. “Pennsylvanians want a leader in the White House that will have a bold plan to create jobs, bring home energy security, and right our country’s financial ship. Governor Romney is that leader.”

Based on everything that has been said on here and elsewhere about the GOP primary over the past several months, it’s amazing that we are sitting here today considering that possibility that Mitt Romney may win either Mississippi or Alabama.

Corey Says
Simply put, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum may all finish anywhere between first and third in both states on Tuesday. Gingrich needs the wins the most and Romney needs them the least. It would be beyond the wildest dreams of Romney supporters to think he could finish first in one or both of those very Deep South states. He will remain a clear frontrunner either way, despite the somewhat unfavorable portion of the primary and caucus calender in March, but if Romney finds a way to win those states, it will be taken as a sign that the race is nearly all over.

127…Corey…don’t give up on your blog. Hope you didn’t mind my cut and paste. That paragraph caught my eye and it is so timely for tonight.
When you are away from HHR…I cannot get into your
blog, so I wait until I see your name and click on that.