Transit planning and debate are gridlocked in such conflicting political traffic — some of it intentionally so — that citizens are looking for an exit

Transit planning and debate are gridlocked in such conflicting political traffic — some of it intentionally so — that citizens are looking for an exit strategy.

The work being done by the Transit Investment Strategy Advisory Panel, established by Premier Kathleen Wynne and headed by Anne Golden, presents such an off ramp.

But ideas on what to build where, and how to pay for it, could just as easily crash, piled high in a heap created by people and politicians with personal agendas.

For although Golden has amassed impeccable credentials for her work in various areas, this, too, is true:

The Toronto region needs a slate of politicians — in the 905 and in Toronto, at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa — committed to the truth about transit and brave enough to tell residents they will have to help pay to stave off encroaching congestion.

Golden tipped the panel’s hand this week with the release of the first of three discussion papers to guide public feedback to the funding plan that Metrolinx has sent to the province. The report is incisive. It lists six “hard truths” about transit.

The problem with hard truths, of course, is they are hard to swallow. And when the medicine is required to reverse transit myths, there is a lot of retching and upchucking before truth triumphs.

So, don’t expect the Toronto mayor, for example, to even read the panel’s reports, much less heed the advice. He should. So should all the regional mayors. For if the first report is any indication of sound, wise counsel to follow, the next two (where to build what and how to pay for it) will be must-reads.

The “hard truths”:

Subways are not the only good form of transit.

Transit does not automatically drive development. Transit’s lifeblood is jobs along a route, not massive number of condos or people.

Building a transit line is not the main expense; maintenance and operating costs are huge.

Transit building is vigorous in the region and not at a standstill as it appears.

Cuts to government waste alone cannot fund transit.

Five of the six “hard truths” should be common knowledge. Only the second one — transit doesn’t necessarily lead to increased development that delivers new riders (build it and they will come) — should raise eyebrows as it goes against conventional wisdom.

The Sheppard subway from Yonge to Don Mills is a perfect example. It was supposed to spark development — and it did. More than 20 highrise towers are supposed to go in around Sheppard and Leslie on the Canadian Tire lands. Unfortunately, it’s not nearly enough to deliver riders, for several reasons.

For one, a subway gobbles up so many people per hour that all the condos planned along Sheppard don’t generate enough riders. Secondly, even if there were enough people in those towers, their places of work are so dispersed that we can’t build enough subways to take them to their work and school destinations all across the region.

Where a subway works best is in delivering workers to their jobs. Such high-capacity transit is needed in corridors where people must go for work and serve as a funnel to get them there. Sheppard, without the jobs, is a shotgun that disperses commuters all over the region. As such, the majority drive to work. Hence, ridership estimates have proven fictitious.

The panel’s second report will unpack this some more by exploring “the transit we need” — a clear stab at the divisive topic of buses versus LRT versus subway and what is appropriate where.

That should add gasoline to the fire burning at city hall as the mayor and his allies try everything to disparage LRTs, kill streetcars and promote subways only.

What that means is, unless there is a political force behind the panel’s reasonable and thoughtful conclusions — a strong candidate in the next municipal election to challenge the “nothing but subways” message — the untruths about transit will continue to find voice.

And solving Toronto’s transit mess will remain a pipe dream, sidelined to another decade when residents wake up to the truth.

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