As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

By

Andrew Osborn

Updated Dec. 29, 2008 12:01 a.m. ET

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

ENLARGE

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's r&eacute;sum&eacute; includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

What a load of garbage. First, if the US were ever to break up, no state or region is going to allow itself to fall under the influence of any foreign government. He thinks that Alaska will naturally flow to Russia? He obviously has never spoken to any Alaskan about their thoughts on Russia. Texas coming under Mexican influence?? Are you kidding me? Texas might invade Mexico and make it part of the Texas Republic is more likely.

And finally, how do you know that this guy has absolutely no expertise to come up with his wild theory? Simply read his quote "When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government." Anyone who has studied the US or the federal system knows that money doesn't flow from the states to the federal government. The federal government collects taxes and distributes funds through various programs down to the states.

The prophet in question, despite implicit claims of objectivity, is a member of the KGB and teaches for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is a member of the government, which is to say a low-level technocrat in a gigantic criminal enterprise. The Russian people are wonderful, yet Russian government is populated not only by criminals but by members at all levels raised on practice of lying about THEIR OWN performance vs. official mandates. How anyone pretending to look down from such a depth should be taken seriously reminds me of a famous American, who often comes off as Dr. Panarin does in the quoted exchange:

"I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

Such an interpretation of being officially scoffed at reminds me of the delusional self-image and self-important rhetorical bias of Donald Trump. Neither deserves to be taken seriously at such moments. Together they demonstrate that foolishness exists in both countries.

What threatens the long-term future of the USA is what also threatens Russia: subversion of the interests of the people and the nation by parasitic oligarchs. This phenomenon is a fait accompli in Russia and a dire threat in the US. Let us Americans listen to our critics but not more than they deserve. Sour grapes do not make for credible forecasts.

The comments displayed here are becoming more and more pessimistic as the USA unavoidably moves towards Doom’s Day. The number of people questioning Panarin’s forecast is ineluctably declining. Now, the only thing that separates the country from the scenario is time.

6) In Russia there is a saying ... in English it looks like "For all, sooner or later have to pay" ...7) There comes a difficult time ... As for the U.S. and to Russia ... Changing the world in general ... And it will not be easy ...

2) is important for Russia to build economic strength and, if so and compete with the U.S. - so it is in hockey.3) The United States is really a huge state debt and this is something to do.4) In the near future, the United States and its people will be a very hard life.5) What will happen to the people and their families - it is not good and very painful. I, too, the same person and do not wish to harm either the United States nor any other country.

Hello! My name is Dennis - I'm from Russia. I apologize for my bad English. So the points ...1) Russia is not beneficial to the economic collapse of the U.S.. We still have the U.S. or not. We are not Taliban, and then we have a nuclear weapon does not make us dangerous. The most dangerous thing right now is an economic war rather than nuclear.

he doesnt know anything about the demographcis of the united states. he just drew lines over the country and said big words. South Carolina would NEVER align itself with states like Vermont or New York or those Euro-socialist pigs.

It's been six months since the last comment, and a lot of things have changed.

The economic situation is becoming dire. Congress, most of whom are in a 24/7/365 campaign cycle and on a binge of accepting any bribe, a.k.a. "corporate campaign contributions", all for personal gain, has the respect of less than 11% of the voters, and Pres. Obama's popularity is lower than it has ever been and probably lower than the press is willing to print. The Feds are printing money to take advantage of the Dollar's standing as a "World Reserve Currency" which, in effect, transfers the inflationary costs of that printing to other countries. Moves are afoot by several countries to remove the Dollar as a WRC. If that happens then the continued printing of money to finance the debt will only result in runaway inflation. Flash mobs around the country are pointing to a basic political and social unrest which is probably a result of the economic collapse, the USA loss of its triple-A rating being only one symptom. With raising taxes as their only solution our politicians are void of both ideas and character.

How does that crazy Russian's prediction seem now. Was he only a couple years off?

"Russia has no future, a catastrophe is coming, disintegration of this country and disappearance of the Russian World (Pax Russicum - KC) from the historical arena is imminent, so the revolution in Russia is inevitable", the president of a Moscow "Academy of Geopolitical Problems", Zio Col. Gen. Ivashov, was forced to acknowledge.

In his lengthy article in Russian, Ivashov said that it was a quite logical fate for his Russia.

"In Russia, the situation is complicated. The revolution is inevitable here. It will attempt to find Russia's future and its development course, which will save Russia as a unified state, with Russian and other indigenous peoples as a national social formation.

Among 100 million Russians, there are 23 million alcoholics, 6 million drug addicts, 6 million AIDS infested, four million Russian prostitutes. We have the highest percentage of poor families and 640 divorces per 1,000 marriages. Revolutionary changes are imperative", he said.

Disturbances in Russia are inevitable, they will be violent, because this country is multi-ethnic", the enemy general acknowledged.

Ja Ja Russia

And second I am not an America fan I am a proud Latin American that knows the difference between nonsense an reality

I think he knew what he was talking about. Look at what is happening today, and what is happening in Madison WI. Obama is a total failure as an American president. His goal of destroying the USA is closer than ever before. Unless America wakes up NOW and stands strong together against the threats from within. Without that, America doesn't stand a chance of standing up to the threats from foreign enemies.

I am glad that this particular article appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Of course this so called professor Mr. Panarinis is a crook. But there is no coincidence he is so popular in Russia. Anti americanism in Russia has reached levels unbelievably close to Taliban and this is outright dangerous because unlike Taliban, Russia has nuclear weapon.

The buzz on financial blogs is the dollar is going to collapse possibly in Oct.

"Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control."

I see it more as Soros causing the market to crash as an October Surprise.

Panarin might be right about the US breaking up some time in the next decade or so, but if he thinks that there is a chance in hell of anyone in the states of TN, KY or SC joining the EU I've got an island off the coast of Florida I can sell him. If he really thinks that the largest portion of the US wouldn't stay intact as a Constitutional Republic, with just some of the wackier Socialist states like California and NY breaking off, then he doesn't know the US as well as he thinks he does.

Its people like this guy that actually bring Americans together and reaffirm our unflinching loyalty to our country, each other, democracy and freedom. I predict his forecasts will have the opposite effect. Thank you professor for helping to keep America strong and unified!

Clowns like this guy give Russians a bad name. I never heard about this guy while I was living in Russia and doubt that anyone takes him seriously. The only major paper that - for reasons that bewilder me - quotes him is WSJ.

I remember listening to Art Bell and George Norry the past 15 years on coast to coast am. I think i've heard predictions for the end of the USA or the world on three different occasions. Now the latest is 2012. I guarantee you come DEC 23 2012 If I'm still alive I will wake up ---- shower and shave and go about the day. The earth will still be here and so will the USA hopefully with a different president :-)

He probably is right he's just about 20 years off. 100 more million illegal Mexicans will be here and most of them vote democratic even though most of them haven't a clue to politics. But nevertheless 100 million more illegals with destroy health care, unemployment will be 40%, Civil war will break out because of food shortages and Jobs.

I have faith that, despite all that the 3 branches of government do to debase (bastardize) the Constitution, we the 307,006,550 people in the USA will keep the ideas and the efforts of our founding fathers together. One should read the USA a little deeper than the headlines. One must remember that a part of the headline is there to sell the TV, radio, newspaper, ego. The headline may be as real as the latest "reality" show. Sadly a recent (last 40 or so years) development is that our "leaders" look at the polls to see where they should be. I am hoping that some of them may slip on a tea bag or two and lose their footing. We do need more Statesmen - less politicians.

Look let us be realistic and not put our head in the sand like an ostracize. I refuse to believe that the U.S. would break up at least in my life time and most of seceniro seems absurd ! but even 50 % of what he is saying comes out to be true than we are in deep trouble.. Look at the economic malise in this country right now , the greed of the politicians and the absurd war in Afganistan And Irag which seem to nothing more than military contracters lining their pockets with U.S. taxpayer money and paying kickback to our politicians and retired generals. and creating hatred around the world.

I live in idaho, and I can't help but think that if things collapsed and the u.s government fell, hunger was everywhere, my family was starving and gunmen were roaming the streets, . . That if the new world power of china stepped in offering to help and to assimilate us into their fold. . . .Well . . . .it would be tempting in the face of the alternative

...this is such a historically validated tactic to slander your enemy with lies about how your neighbors are going to turn against you, how your own house will be divided, how the whole neighborhood will be against you.....(exactly what has been happening in Russia for decades...no doubt this guy is projecting his hatred towards Americ). This is exactly what we should expect from a nation that has always attempted to compete with America rather than to be co-creators with America....and let's not forget, the idealogists of Russia, still remember that at the heart of the American experience is a (FREE< FREE<FREE) people who can "worship God" if they choose to...as a reality and as a common purpose...and that at the core of a true spiritual worship is a God that is merciful and a God who wants to represent Himself over the heads of all the nations on the earth....including establishing His own headship over America. I would suggest that if there is a civil war in America, it will be because of this: "the reality of freedom to reverence God in prayer and in FREE worship re-establishing itself... and the establishing a new standard and expectation for FREEDOM for other oppressed peoples in the world to have the same...regardless of what country, race, religion they come out of."

Analyst Bluepapers blog has a set of April 2010 posts outlining Putin regime activities around the globe that seem to anticipate Professor Panarin's propaganda coming true. Perhaps it is a plan, not just a prediction, and that, a deliberately misleading plan. Russia wants more than Alaska.

if someone were to do (serious) scenario planning for the political future of the US, i doubt this anti-American's version of the end result would even appear as a possibility. many things can get worse, even much worse in the US, and dealing with such eventualities by preparing for them is what scenario planning is about. But such a prediction about the disintegration of the US (note that no part of the US remains independent and powerful) says more about the author than the underlying problems in the US or the world.

Other than what the popularity of such predictions demonstrate about the level of anti-Americanism (or envy of the US ?) in Russia, i see no reason for such a piece seemingly so devoid of business or political content. Another result i suspect of the News Corp take-over.

This clown has no idea what Americans really are!! Honestly, he really doesn't have a clue!! We are loud, obnoxious, violent, highly skilled/trained, and we don't like being told what to do by someone else. What's more, most of us strongly dislike those "Old Worlders" across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. What makes this "Comrade" think that Americans will just sit by and let Russia roll right in and tell us what to do and how to live our lives? I honestly can't believe that the Russians are that silly and short-sighted. If they think they've got problems with Chechnya and the Ukraine, they better think twice about Alaska. They never really controlled this land in the first place. Most of it was never seen by a Russian, Cossack, Yakut, or whatever else they want to call themselves. They used to be pretty good at rolling into a small country with lots of roads and an unarmed populace. This state is loaded down with jets, tanks, missiles, nukes, vehicles, private firearms, etc. Plus the logistics involved in "Ruling" Alaska from Russia are mind-boggling. Give up Boris. This land was sold to the U.S. fair and square. It'll never be yours again and we'll chop off any fingers that you grab it with. Welcome to the world of "The Postman".

This poor guy, Professor Igor "Rat-arin", is another paria and widow of the old communist-fascist thinking of the XIX century. I think he is high on drugs, possibly purchased from Putin's pupils: Hugo Chavez in Venezuela or Evo Morales in Bolivia, where cocaine and pot is cheap, ubiquitous, and strong. (Ahjamajineyad only produces nukes...say no to drugs...). Nothing to worry about, my fellow Americans: America will be the very dominant economic and military power for years and years to come, even against the envy of much rogue and defaulted states like the old Russia, the forgotten Jurassic Park of Nort Korea, and the new loosers like the Banana Republic of Venezuela.Believe me: God bless America !!!!

We study search demand/supply trends from around the world to find profitable niches and products, and the main problem with predictions is that no one looks at the "supply" side to these predictions. A niche, or hot predictions, is not just a demand side issue, but a supply/demand curve. If you predict IPHONE apps will take off, and there are already 100,000 aps, then you aren't going to hit that one. If you see that demand for cell phone radiation shields is going nuts and there are only two suppliers, then you can be pretty sure that it will be a good year for those 2 supplies. The software at .TheInternetTimeMachine.com studies both the demand (search volume) and supply (think "results" in Google). The Google Phone is generating much more buzz right now then say the Apple Tablet.

Wow, I'd definitely have to say this sounds like wishful thinking on the part of the Russian professor. Some of his statements sound plausable, such as, "wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union". I do think power has become too centralized in the U.S. and I do think that the country is built on state rights. I know that some states that are wealthier than others, such as Texas, have made idle threats such as seceeding. The reality of the situation is that following the civil war measures were put into place making it nearly impossible for a state to seceed from the union. In addition to this implausablility the professor further speculates that the U.S. will be parceled to other nations. This is incomprehensible, just from the standpoint that each section of the U.S. is going to willingly submit to speaking seperate languages. This prediction is so incredibly ridiculous I can't help but laugh at the mere idea. Although I must agree with the professor on a few points, our country is certainly in the midst of uncertain times. I do think that the culture has suffered a lot of "moral degradation" even though I am in no way socially conservative. I just hope that we can reign in our sensationlist media and entertainment industry, and begin to foster a better education system.

I don't think he's that far off mark. Look how fracture our country is right now over all the issues. And actually, I don't think a total collapse of the U.S. would be such a bad thing: it would finally break the stranglehold that the rich and big transnational corporations have on our government. Then, we the people could build this country back up to what it should be: a true democracy with no special privileges for anybody.

He's just making mention of the commercial influences. Texas will do much trade with Mexico, California with China, and so on. Wrong in your other assumption too.

Most states run themselves profitably with the federal government accounting for most of the waste. We are now seeing with many making decisions not to create exchanges for Obamacare, that they are getting fed up with it.

Idahoans would be fat on spuds and elk, and the gunman in the streets,,,Well these would assure that no un-invited chinese come into areas like the Snake River valley. The US could collapse and Idaho would remain independent. There are similar areas in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Wyoming,,,and folks in these areas don't need Washington for anything.

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