December 14, 2018

Traditional Market Meltdown Open Thread

I said many months back that (assuming Mueller comes up empty on Russian collusion, as seems likely) the Fed was the last institution standing between Trump and a glide path to re-election based on a strong economy.

Buckle up! That glide path looks a lot less assured right now. Plan B - a quick mini-recession or growth pause starting, like, yesterday and ending quickly - is problematic because the perception of recovery generally lags the reality, as Bush 41 found out in 1992. Of course, back then the media was happy to play along with Bill Clinton, who claimed the economy was in the worst shape since the Depression. And they will play along with the Democrats this time around, for obvious and timeless reasons.

Rocco, I just went back and briefed that whole page with a focus on my comments. Thank you, I'd forgotten about some of my comments but they still stand the test of time -- including the possibility that Mueller has an unseen purpose that works for the President.

And yes, Rocco, we're all having some entertainment and education here. It's all good, my man.

To me, my position that 4D chess isn't a solo play is clearly still correct. Why fdcol63 thought we were in disagreement on that, I don't know.

And Clarice threatened to put Jane on my case! Wowza !!!

And hello, Jane; Merry Christmas to you, too. I hope to be in Southwest Florida sometime in January or February and will look you up then.

Atlanta friends, one way or the other I plan to be in your city for the Gators bowl game vs Michigan. If family duties permit, I'd love to see some of y'all at a meet-up.

And Rocco, this may help to further understand where I'm coming from (or how deluded I am):

I don't think Jeff Sessions was fired.

Jeff hired Matt Whitaker as his Chief of Staff. Usually, no one works closer with an agency head than the Chief of Staff.

This was (and is) part of the plan. So, too, more than likely, was (and is) Mick Mulvaney coming in now as Chief of Staff. Trump wants to revolutionize how our Federal Government is structured. It appears now may be the time to move on that, just as it is time to move on Criminal Justice reform and the infrastructure. You want Mulvaney in that slot now or General Kelly?

And Mulvaney is holding onto his OMB job?

Yeah, the man is operating off of a very flexible plan. We've never seen anything like it.

The fact that after two years of the Mueller investigation people of good faith (or even of somewhat corrupted faith) on all points of the political spectrum are still in the dark as to whether there is an actual case to be made speaks very loudly as to why the special counsel was not included in the Constitution. Even if he has a rock-solid case (which seems incredibly dubious at this point) of something, anything against Trump, the idea that the American political system has essentially been held hostage to this unelected prosecutor is anathema to what this country is supposed to stand for, as well as to the concept of a functional government.

And don't tell me the doubt is because the Mueller team is "leakproof."

We are going over to his house to FINALLY get our Nene and Pappy hands on Paige and celebrate to his birthday as they still aren't taking her out around a bunch of strangers with all the flu outbreak in the ATL.

I made a vegetable lasagna and a meat lasagna to take for dinner. I've never made a veg lasagna, but I used an alfredo sauce instead of marinara and used Baby bellas, squash, zucchini, carrots, and broccoli. Hope it works. I had some left over alfredo and just added to it to increase the quantity instead of making a butt ton of bechemel sauce.

We'll see if that is yummy or crummy later today.

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RG let me know if you head this way. We have no plans to travel over the holidays so should be available.

i think a GOOD Man is doing something, therefore, evil will not prevail. as in all things political we'll get some of what we need to survive. but total denazification may be a pipe dream. yes, i want The Bath House Rat's head in a Chik Fil A bag. but....

Expanding on lyle's description of The Ledge, Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA: To be in the proper state of mind for enjoying OL's refreshments on The Ledge, it helps if one doesn't understand Four-Dee Chess. Thus, when one sees the feds pressuring Cohen to admit to a non-crime in an effort to delegitimize Trump, one will view that as part of Deep State's efforts to delegitimize Trump, as opposed to part of a Trump Master Plan to crush the Deep State. :-)

What I see is a tissue of lies falling apart in the face of a few groups determined to get at the truth.

The Clinton Foundation sis now under fire for quite obvious pay-for-play. Hillary is being discredited even in the minds of her most ardent supporters. The two of them have been discarded like one of Bill's spent condoms.

Mueller now has a really serious issue with integrity of the process in the Flynn case, and we haven't even gotten to the Steele dossier reveal yet.

The whole premise of Russian collusion has been blown away and now they are threatening impeachment over something we have known about for 2 years.

The only real objective is to smear Trump every single day with something, and I think they are running low on offal.

It has also become obvious that anyone surrounding Trump has become a target to be destroyed by any means necessary. They laid off his kid, but Melania is a non-person in the media, which says volumes. How do we go from the hobo Moochelle to a supermodel who speaks 5 or 6 languages and not recognize that it is a step up in the class department?

Ivanka's e mail scandal went nowhere. Now we have perhaps the looniest member of Congress ever elected threatening Jr. because he made fun of her. It's a Looney Tunes cartoon.

Leftists have very thin skin and I think we need play this up moving forward.

They lost on Kavanaugh a rallying point, and were able to tap a billion dollars in dark money and use techniques such as vote harvesting to steal a number of elections. Now is the time to plan for 2020.

Their goal is turmoil. Ours should be the rule of law and common sense. Hold them accountable. Expose their lies and follies. Venceremos!

Beasts is well. Completely avoiding politics, is what he told me.
(Though he is such a Southern Gentleman---maybe he's just sick of the sniping here too? )

I have a different take on the L/V/D/D representations.

The Ledge, where OL presides and ch hangs out, is where those who believe all is lost already stay to be able to fend off the progs, with plenty of ice cold gin and other short chain carbon beverages available to dull the pain of knowing our children and grandchildren are doomed to be subject to sheeple. I'm pretty sure there are plenty of guns and ammo to do what might need doing.

The Veranda, under MM's supervision with RG dropping in whenever he is by, is where those are convinced POTUS will be victorious in the battle with the Leftists. Adult beverages are available, and consumed in celebration of this victory.

The Dock is where people who would love to be on The Veranda but cannot delude themselves in the face of events they witness based on their experience as rational beings but refuse to give up hope hang out. I think KK's The Deck is much the same, but closer to the steps to The Ledge. (And maybe I need to move to The Deck.)
Beasts does own a bar and a marina, so it's his dock, as far as I know.

Absolutely no disrespect intended to the The Veranda dwellers---you have no idea how I envy your certainty.
Nothing will make me happier than to have us all end up there, consuming endless bottle of champagne!
I think even The Ledge dwellers would be ecstatic to have you be able to tell them "I told you so!"

Jane, the eagle has landed. What about lunch here on Monday or Wednesday?

I think Sullivan will dump the case and this time will not make the mistake of letting DOJ handle the wrongdoers. Precisely how he will do that, I cannot say--contempt was not enough nor was having a special master investigate.

I guess that makes me a deck person--closer to the ledge than the veranda, firmly believing that Mueller wears a black hat, but not giving up all hope that this mess will turn out well for Trump. But if it does, it would be in spite of Mueller's best efforts.

Not necessarily. In fact, I think much more likely that Mueller's team either filed original under seal OR filed a motion under seal not to have to file original and that is what is in the missing dockets 50-55.

We had a beautiful blizzard last night but it was all dry powdery snow, not wet at all and the weathermen tell us it'll not get above freezing for the next week. This is great news! Cross country trails in the City are now open and the downhill slopes in Girdwood and in the City are just opening. Dogs love it, and I do too since the bears are asleep under this nice fluffy blanket. Nelson, Fry, and even Ms Scout rolled around in it kast night making dog snow angels and I shared their happiness. Why it's almost as if we're in our own Hallmark Christmas Movie.

Clarice, Cleveland claims the FBI filed a series of documents (the missing docket elements) asking to keep the original 302 under seal, or asking to not provide it. Her guess is the FBI doesn’t want to name the second agent in public. So tried to comply with Sullivan, but under seal.

Grandson has graduated! I had to endure a speech by David Rubenstein of Bloomberg news. Who bragged abiut working for Jimmy Carter, Birch Bayh, and then with Bush 41 at the Carlyle group. Also former Congressman Lee Hamilton got a medal. I told my som they picked out the speakers to irrirate me.

Hey, Stephanie--I just picked up my new Explorer (well--2016 with only 5K miles) Today.

I do think Escape, Edge and Explorer could all be JOM categories. I have an Explorer but I am pretty much on the Edge. Daddy is an Explorer. Pin seems to be in Escape mode fairly often, although his recent travelogue makes him an Explorer as well.

The FBI has released a summary that James Comey used in a briefing with President-Elect Donald Trump and President Obama regarding the Steele dossier
The document is sure to grab the attention of Republicans who have accused the FBI of relying too heavily on the unverified dossier for its investigation of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian government
The summary shows that the FBI claimed Steele was working for “private clients,” when he was actually working for the DNC and Clinton campaign. It also noted that Steele relied on “identified and unidentified subsources” to fill out the dossier

RG-saw your reference to coming to atl for the peach bowl. I will be here as well. I am a bit more centrally located than steph and can get almost anywhere in metro area with some notice. Steph could always leave her new vehicle at my house and we drive together depending on what is convenient for you.

I live inside the perimeter in the buckhead/brookhaven area not far from lenox and phipps, but grew up in marietta. Not really anywhere I am not comfortable driving to.

One of my kids has spent a great deal of time in that new stadium since it was built if you need info on getting to and from.

Tom R, I thought you were referring to the docs that Mueller did turn over. To argue that his refusal to turn over the original 302 is a way to throw the case, rather than to protect butt-buddy Comey and the other criminal traitors in the FBI, is not 4D, it's delusion of a high order.

You refuse to hand over information when doing so causes you or your pals more harm than whatever the impact on the case is. Mueller has already shown by his sentencing recommendation that he'd rather let Flynn off easy than give up his FBI pals. End of story.

Jimmyk,

I think there is a big hole in your logic. If I interpret your point correctly, you think Mueller disobeyed the judges direct order and refused to give the judge the original 302 forms because he was trying to protect his FBI pals. Mueller disobeyed the judge knowing that his actions would give the judge justification to throw out Flynn’s case and void the guilty plea.

Background: Mueller learned of Strzok and Pages corruption from Horowitz in the summer of 2017 around July timeframe. One of the documents (highly redacted) that Mueller did give to the judge yesterday was the 302 of the FBI’s interview of Strzok after this corruption was discovered. The date of that interview of Strzok was the same date Page sent the text to Strzok to tell him to never text her again. That leads me to believe that the document Mueller gave to the judge yesterday might be the 302 of Strzok from the criminal investigation into his wrongdoings.

Regardless if the interview of Strzok was part of a criminal investigation or not, Mueller learned in July 2017 timeframe that Strzok, Page, McCabe and likely a few other DOJ/FBI officials were involved in some form of corruption against Trump. Here is the hole in your logic. If Mueller’s goal was to protect his FBI pals, then he never would have indicted Flynn in December 2017 in the first place. Once he learned of their misbehavior, the smart thing to do to protect them would have been to drop the Flynn case entirely.

Perhaps Mueller went ahead with the indictment because he knew Contreras was a dirty judge and would side with Mueller. After the plea bargain that Contreras oversaw Contreras was forced to recuse himself and Sullivan took over and then ordered Mueller to provide Flynn with any exculpatory evidence.

Once again, if Mueller’s goal was to protect his FBI pals like you believe, then it was beyond stupid at that point for him to provide that exculpatory evidence to Flynn’s legal team. Instead he should have just dropped all charges against Flynn which would have ensured the misbehavior of his FBI pals could have been swept under the rug.

Henry, the name of the 2d agent is already well known.
I do not think he filed the 302 under seal. The judge said they could, but I do not imagine he could have any reason for not saying other information was provided under seal.

Here is the hole in your logic. If Mueller’s goal was to protect his FBI pals, then he never would have indicted Flynn in December 2017 in the first place. Once he learned of their misbehavior, the smart thing to do to protect them would have been to drop the Flynn case entirely.

Tom R, are you familiar with Occam's Razor? Or Rube Goldberg? If Mueller wanted his FBI pals punished for wrongdoing he could have -- gone after them! Investigated them, tossed the Flynn case. Please don't say he didn't have the authority. To continue to hang Flynn out to dry for another year, only then to throw the case--why? If nothing else it's a shameful attempt to save face.

You're suggesting it's a great strategy for a criminal investigator to go after an innocent person, extract a guilty plea, take a year to get to the sentencing, rather than go after the perp directly, right?

I think Jimmy has the better of this argument Tom R--by a couple of miles frankly.
The most generous thing I could see for Mueller is that he was merely a public face on the investigation and allowed himself to be manipulated by those crooks below him, and that's hardly praise or defense.

Facts not in evidence. And as far as I can tell, Mueller can investigate whatever he wants.

BS. The facts are indeed in evidence and should be common knowledge to anyone who reads this blog. Who do you think informed Mueller of Strzok and Pages corruption that was uncovered during their investigation.

I think Another Bob had it right. Tom R's approach is question-begging. Assume Mueller is a white hat, interpret all data in such a way as to confirm that, no matter how much pretzel-twisting logic is required.

I think Jimmy has the better of this argument Tom R--by a couple of miles frankly.

Jimmy hasn't said anything that would explain why Mueller would intentionally disobey the judge and likely tank the Flynn case like he did. Since you are a lawyer perhaps you can make a better argument that explains why Mueller did what he did yesterday?

Jesus Tom, are you this dense?
Mueller's choices: 1) Turn over evidence of the corruption of his investigation. 2) Not turn over evidence of the corruption of his investigation.

Looks like you missed my post spelling out that if jimmyk was correct and Mueller was trying to protect his FBI pals, he would have never indicted Flynn in the first place or dropped the charges once he was ordered to turn over exculpatory evidence.

I'm thinking some of you are having a hard time coming to grips with the idea the Mueller helped Flynn yesterday.

But I'm not telling everybody to go over to the new thread. Occam's Razor might lead to the conclusion that that is what I'm telling folks to do but no, I'm not telling folks that they should go over to the new thread. This current thread I think has plenty enough humor and strife and insanity and 4-D chess and road trips and recipe's and White-Hatness going on to satisfy Ledge-ites, Verandah-ites, and even Yellow Vester-ites, so if folks here conclude on their own that they should go over to the New Thread!!! they are doing it on their own but in no way am I personally suggesting that folks should go on over to that New Thread!!! And for those here who mistakenly think that's what I'm suggesting