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Betting on transfers, a fool’s bet

Date published: Tuesday 30th August 2016 7:41

Every summer the transfers are the centre of attention of the football world and it is possible to bet on transfers. However, we don’t think it’s wise.

A lot of people bet on football these days. They bet on matches in the top European leagues, like the EPL, La Liga, Budesliga 1, Seria A, as well other national leagues, cups, even lower-tier football. It is also popular to bet on major events like the World Cup or the Euro. The amounts that some punters managed to win are astonishing and can be compared to online casino jackpot wins. Online casino gaming also gained popularity and casino fans can chose from a vast range of online casinos. At these sites that are popular and trustworthy are listed and that makes things a lot easier for potential casino players. The summer is a period when there aren’t a lot of football matches, if we exclude major competitions that happen once in 4 years or friendly and qualifying matches, but there are a lot of transfers.

Transfers make a difference

Transfers are vital to a club’s success, especially major clubs who compete in the top European leagues. If a manager makes a couple of right transfers, adds the right players to an already competitive squad the team’s chances of success would be significantly increased. Similarly, buy the wrong players, or sell players that are indispensable and you may end up relegated or far behind your rivals. One of the main reasons why Villa were relegated was the sale of Christian Benteke and Liverpool are doing much worse after they sold Luis Suarez.

Money draws attention

A lot of money is spent on players every summer transfer window and it is therefore understanding why transfers draw public attention. The fans are particularly sensitive about transfers. They end up hating every player that leaves for a rival club, but new acquisitions may soon become their heroes if they prove that they are worth. Every summer there’s a lot of speculations, rumours and even straight out lies when it comes to transfers. One thing is certain it isn’t over until a contract is signed and the player puts on a new shirt.

Transfers are unpredictable

One of the biggest transfers this season was the transfer of Southampton forward Sadio Mane to Liverpool. These two clubs have a rather interesting bond when it comes to transfers and there are more than few current Liverpool players who used to play for Southampton. It wasn’t easy to predict that Klopp will go ‘on shopping’ to Southampton too often like his predecessor did. The transfer of Kante to Chelsea is another surprise and Vardy’s rejection of Arsenal was equally interesting, because almost all media reported that it is a done deal. The point is, nobody but the player actually knows, and often even the player may change his mind at the last moment.

Transfer bets

The booking operators quickly realised that everyone who is interested in football also cares about transfers and they started offering betting on transfers. Nowadays you can bet on whether a player is going to join one club or another. However, these bets are quite particular and a lot different that common football bets. These bets are offered as special bets, they can be introduced and withdrawn without warning. Most transfer bets are given as “Player to sign before date”, where player is the name of a particular player and date is a specific date, usually the last day of the transfer window. Few or more clubs are listed and depending on the situation the player’s current club may be listed as well. The odds may be quite lucrative, depending on how likely it is for a player to join a particular club.

There’s not enough information

So far, it doesn’t sound all too different from other specialty bets. There is one problem with transfer betting though. As a punter, you have no way or knowing or even enough information to judge whether a player will move to a certain club or not. By the time the transfer is considered a done deal the odds will be too low that it won’t be worth taking the risk. And often, even when it seems that a transfers is done deal it might be cancelled at the very last moment. There’s too much speculation and not enough relevant information.

Sure, you may say, football is unpredictable altogether and if betting on transfers isn’t wise, then betting itself isn’t wise. There is a significant difference though. You can watch the teams play on a regular basis, there’s a lot of available statistics and information and you can develop a betting system and hope it will work. No win is ever guaranteed, but at least you can make an educated guess when it comes to betting on matches. On transfers on the other hand, such information is not available, mainly due to the nature of transfers. Players often say that they won’t leave the club, only to see them signing a contract with a rival the very next day.

Betting on transfers is not smart

And if you think that you will be able to read the latest news, learn if a player is going to be sold or not and then place a bet before the odds change, think again. The bookmakers also read the news and they are more interested in knowing what is going on. They will change the odds immediately. Betting on transfers is simply too much guesswork.