Ian Copsey is a veteran analyst having begun his career in Forex 28 years ago. He is author of "Integrated Technical Analysis" and his new groundbreaking book "Harmonic Elliott Wave." He provides his popular daily forecast “The Harmonic Daily Forecaster” through his website www.harmonic-ewave.com.

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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

The Dollar is looking firmer still …

Dollar up… equities down… the game’s afoot... and there’s quite a way to go…

Everything seems to be coming together now and frankly there’s not too much to get in the way of the Dollar steamroller. A mild correction is due not too far higher but it should be quite a brief stop to pick up more passengers before extending gains. All Europeans are pretty much matched in all this although GBPUSD may well lag the others slightly.

What is less certain is the fate of USDJPY. Just as it looked like deepening its rally it dropped steeply and provided me with my first headache of the day. The inability to hang on to those gains is a concern and may well have settled the larger downside – and that actually looks quite bearish – well, excessively so. Before getting too tied to that bearish outlook we should just confirm the first move. If it is lower, then from what I can see, the outlook is exceptionally bearish and therefore quite a contrast to the Europeans. The risk is for it to remain in its own world and make the decline in steps at first but if I’m right then a drop to below 70 is possible over time.

That opens up the JPY crosses which also look exceptionally vulnerable. Be aware of the risk here. The only alternative is for the Euro to keep pushing lower while USDJPY continues to fuss around current levels but the net effect will just be to make the decline in the crosses slower.

So, from here on for a while the emphasis should be to buy Dollars on pullbacks…

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DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. It must be understood that Forex trading involves substantial risk of losses as well as profits. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

About Ian

I have been around in financial market for over 30 years, the last 23 years as a technical analyst. I focus heavily on price development and structure as it is the only way to generate accurate support and resistance. I use my own adapted form of Elliott Wave along with derivatives of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios to derive support and resistance. I provide a range of reports covering daily & weekly Forex, U.S. Indices.