2012 BC Juvenile: Back to the Synthetics

Wide Open.
The Breeders’ Cup Futurity has a strong history of winners that have gone on to
win the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. But if you can navigate this field of 14
to find a winner, please let me know.

One little
known fact about this race revolves around its relevance for both the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. Specifically it has everything to do with
the racing surface. In the summer of 2006 Keeneland switched to an All Weather
Track, making the ’06 Breeders’ Futurity the first that was raced on
synthetics.

Oddly
enough that was the same year that Street Since began his epic charge towards
to the unprecedented Juvenile Derby double. I mention this because since then
there hasn’t been a single winner that has gone on to capture either race. In
fact, there hasn’t been a Derby or Juvenile winner that made a stop at the
Breeders’ Futurity.

So, the
debate on whether Keeneland’s switch to Poly has affected its role in either of
the big races can begin. However, my research tells me that it will only be a
matter of time before this trend goes the other direction.

Last year
we saw Hansen make a beautiful switch from the Poly at Turfway to the dirt at
Churchill Downs. It was a big question mark regarding his chances of capturing
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before he proved it to be a non-issue. Later in 2012
we saw I’ll Have Another capture the Kentucky Derby brilliantly. What is
sometimes left out about him is that he began his career on the Poly at
Hollywood and Del Mar.

Furthermore,
let’s not forget the ultimate Kentucky Derby long shot Mine That Bird. Prior to
him entering the BC Juvenile, where he was a non factor, he began his racing
career on the Synthetics at Woodbine. After he nailed it in the Kentucky Derby
we saw another Poly success story when Animal Kingdom romped home to win the
roses after prepping on the Synthetics at Turfway Park. Actually, if you recall, Animal Kingdom became the very first Kentucky Derby winner that had
never raced on dirt until the first Saturday in May.

Hopefully,
these success stories will convince you that it’s only a matter of time before
the Breeders’ Futurity on Keeneland’s All Weather Track will produce another eventual Juvenile or Kentucky Derby winner. The stats don’t lie, the majority of synthetic
racers are no longer exclusive to the surface where they got their start so don’t
discount the chances of tomorrow’s winner.

When that
will be is still up in the air. If you haven’t noticed the stats I’m throwing
out there have more to do with the Kentucky Derby than the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile. Hansen stands out as the horse that defies that but until another
Futurity winner steals the Juvenile it will remain a questionable prep. It’s
difficult to handicap the switch sometimes. Whether or not I’ll be convinced of
this year’s winner is questionable but the likely outcome is that I won’t
be because this year I'm already leaning towards the dirt racers.

What’s
great about this year’s Breeders’ Futurity is that the field is large and the
chances of me being incorrect come November 3rd are getting better. So,
who will it be? Great question because tomorrow’s race is wide open. Again, this field is littered with potential
and includes a full house. As it stands right now, there are 14 entries with
two on the AE list in case any of the 14 decides to opt out.

So you’re
probably wondering why a large field has any implications on the upcoming
Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby next spring. You might not like the answer but
it’s rather simple and in my opinion justified. It’s just a numbers game. Time
will prove that and if you haven’t noticed I’m pretty confident that it will be
sooner rather than later. But this year? I can’t guarantee that or even hint at
it so I’ll leave it up to you.

Over the
past few years I’ve come around to Polytrack racing. I might not be the best at
handicapping it but I’ve learned the hard way to never discount a solid
performance or prep that was raced on it. The numbers are always going to favor
the dirt but from time to time the horse that recently ran on synthetics is
going to shift things in the other direction.

Again, I like
this field but I’m not betting on it to be a race on the resume for this year’s
Juvenile or Kentucky Derby winner. But do you?

Related Pages

About Me

Meet Bryan Brinkmeyer – Chicago, IL

Growing up across the river from the Bluegrass State I was able to spend a lot of summer days at Ellis Park, Henderson, KY.

Likewise, the first Saturday in May was always a celebrated family event. In 2000, I made my inaugural Kentucky Derby appearance and since, I have made it an annual tradition because there’s no other city, or weekend, in the racing world like Louisville, KY on Derby Day.

Although the story of a Kentucky Derby winner is legendary, a champions trail is what The Kentucky Derby Post is all about. The coverage begins when Juvenile season starts and continues until the field is set, the picks are in and the roses are earned.