"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros

Till when will this last?

Sup everyone? What a strong start for our markets. Seems scary right? you’re probably hounded by questions like; “till when can this be sustained?”, “is the market bound for correction?”, “will the market crash”?, “what’s in for us in the future”?, blah blah blah blah blah. Honestly, no one knows shit. Don’t be too complacent, and don’t be too scared. Haha. It’s pretty much contradicting but yeah, find a balance where you’re comfortable.

Most of us deem new highs as positive right? Everything seems to be in place, good economy for PHL, anticipation of investment grade, solid earnings, election year, good governance, improving reserves and debt to gdp ratio, PPP projects, etc. Plus the fact that we have money flooding all over, it seems that the bullish note is really backed well. Most markets are on their highs, it just shows that optimism is all over, I don’t know whether it’s good to take a contrarian stance while everyone is jumping in joy or to just go with the flow. It’s all about choosing a position where the “higher probability” is in your side, based on what ever form of analysis you use. After all, the market is all about probabilities right? That’s why we all want to ride trends, that’s where the highest probabilities are. Take away the fear, and accept the risk, be prepared with what the market can do, make sure you know your plans in the various scenarios that the market can offer.

Here are some of the things you can do:

Enjoy it while it lasts, set well defined stops.

If you have the intuition or the skill or the luck in finding tops, then good for you, go by with what you feel. Sell if you think it’s time. Look for divergences, distribution clues, trend breaks(trend lines, moving averages and what not, depends on your definition of a trend)

Sell when satisfied with the gains. If you think it’s too risky, sell now. and forget about the markets, If you’re satisfied with the humongous gains you had and you feel like this circumstance is getting dangerous, then get out, and forget about the markets for a while. It doesn’t matter whether you’re right or wrong in this call, it’s about your contentment and security.

Now, if you have crazy conviction and you know what you’re doing, You can get a loan and put more money in the stock market, abuse it while it’s hot. Sell your house, your garden, your car, your wife, your children’s education, don’t enroll them for a while. Hahahaha. Kidding. Point is, if you believe that there are vast opportunities in this kind of market, given how cheap money is all around the world, then GO GO GO and put your money where your mouth is.

On to my port. I’m beginning to focus on my positions now, rather than scattering them. I trimmed all losers and shifted to those who can make me money, like TA. Though you won’t see it in the port since I just day trade it. I plan to do a big buy back in TA because I think it’ll have more potential.

I added:

BLOOM – just for the hype on its opening. Will sell when contented.

ABSP – Will continue to add to create a position worth 100k, buying on dips, I’m just betting that it’ll go beyond 50+, I don’t care about the inconsistent bids, fundies are clearly interested in the stock. Still shows strong accumulation.

LC – Good signals from the charts, bought at 1.12 and good to see that it immediately rose to 1.17 after 2-3 days. I expect this to go 1.20 soon, prior to that I was thinking of just range trading it but it seems that it would be better for me to hold it for a while. Big Boy Macq still buying.

PF – My favorite Hotdog Maker. First day after a long while where it had tremendous volume. Let’s see what happens, it may seem that there are lot’s of sellers but remember that’s how DNL and EW looked like when they were still babies. Likewise, anything consumer seems to be a hit in our market, and from what I’ve gathered this is the cheapest direct consumer play at current levels. Signals on their way, further positive movement will confirm the play.

OV – Slowly building up my position on this one. hehe. OPMB looks good too. but I prefer OV since I’m a big fan of Macquarie. 🙂

Said goodbye to:

EEI – wrong move, I tried to go anti-breakout on this one selling my half zero cost shares after breaking 12.00 I sold at 12.08 to be exact. Only to see it go as high as 13.20. If you have EEI I suggest you just hold this bagger. I can even see it go at 15.00, this stock, I think will be re-evaluated by analysts soon, for whatever reason they have.

ABA, LIHC, EG – opportunity cost, I’ll be back kids.

Others – Just took some profits and shifted to better plays.

Someone asked me about my port performance, don’t look at the “TOTAL TRADE VALUE” since I use COL margins. My real equity is seen under the tables; “Your Total Equity Value is 728,469.88”.

Performance of my fund is at:
728k – 666k = 62k / 666k = 9.3% ytd.

Not that impressive still have lot’s of work to do, most index funds are near the 8 to 10% mark. PSEi has performed at about 10%+ depending on the fluctuations. Anyway, I’m still happy with my nearly 10% gain in just about a month and a few days. It’s all about consistency, and we still have 11 months to go. Since it’s my second year in the market, I’m expecting more from myself, my goal is to attain 100% YTD.