Morgan Stanleyanalyst Katy Huberty is out with a note knocking down both of those theories. Here's the key takeaways from her note:

There is "strong demand" for theiPhone 5."Importantly, a greater percentage of consumers plan to purchase the higher priced iPhone 5 as compared to iPhone 4S mix a year ago. As a result, we see potential upside to both our 50M unit (+35% Y/Y) and $642 (-4%) ASP assumptions in C4Q."