Poll: Big gain for Republican Party

Democrats are on the losing end of a 13-point swing in the polls since October, resulting in an early lead for the GOP heading into 2014, according to a new poll on the midterm elections released Thursday.

The CNN/ORC International survey shows Republicans holding a 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Democrats, a swift reversal from just two months ago, when the Democratic Party stood steady with an 8-point lead over the GOP, 50 percent to 42 percent.

The survey follows a tumultuous few months for Democrats, who have been hurt by the rocky rollout of the health insurance exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act. In October, the GOP was reeling from the perception that House Republicans were to blame for the government shutdown.

The new numbers will very likely concern congressional Democrats, but CNN Polling Director Keating Holland cautions against making any early predictions on the 2014 elections based on the new poll results.

“There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast, and the ‘generic ballot’ question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections,” Holland said. “A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a 6-point lead on the generic ballot, but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup.”

The poll of 1,035 adults was conducted Dec. 16 to Dec. 19 and has a margin of error of plus- or minus-3 percentage points.