Thursday, March 12, 2015

Iraq update

Shiite militias are leading the fight against ISIS
in Iraq. This is significant for five reasons.

First, the Iraqi Shiite militias are
non-governmental forces that the US has neither trained nor equipped. The encouraging
success of these groups in combat against ISIS demonstrates that Iraqis can be
effective fighters. ISIS believes that Shiites are apostate Muslims who deserve
death. This obviously gives Shiite militias a strong motive to fight.

Second, the problems that the Iraqi military
experiences – regardless of alleged expert opinions in the US and among senior
Iraqi military and government leaders – are not going to be solved by additional
training or equipment. The Iraqi armed forces suffer from a lack of commitment
and morale among their personnel that no amount of training or equipment can fix.

Third, no matter how much the US or other nations
would like Iraq to endure as a unified country Iraq's future is in Iraqi hands.
Some Iraqi Sunni groups have joined the fight against ISIS. These Sunni groups fight
ISIS for reasons similar to the reasons that Kurds and Shiites fight ISIS:
opposition to ISIS' rule and fear of slaughter if ISIS wins.

Fourth, the success of non-governmental forces
fighting against ISIS (primarily the Kurdish groups and Shiite militias) puts
the problem of ISIS in context. ISIS is not a direct threat to the US or
Europe; ISIS poses regional problems best solved by the people of the effected region.

Fifth, ISIS does not justify the US reengaging
militarily in Iraq or spending large sums to train and equip Iraqi armed
forces. Equipment provided to Iraqi government forces will tend to end up in
the hands of non-governmental forces, including ISIS. Air power can aid the
fight but is never decisive by itself. Being the wealthiest, most powerful
nation does not mean that the US can, much less should, impose its will on other
nation states.