Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: The Slump Busters

Michael Vick scored a relatively modest 18.54 standard-league fantasy points in Week 4 against the Giants, but it was his best on-field performance to date. He avoided turnovers for the first time in 2012, played under control, made big-time throws into tight windows, and kept Philly's offense moving en route to a key division win. On the heels of an extremely rocky start, I feel better about Vick's year-long fantasy outlook after that game. If he turns in another slow fantasy effort against the Steelers' No. 3 pass defense, buy low on Vick before Week 6. He's got passer-friendly shootouts coming up against Detroit, Atlanta, and New Orleans. ... Jeremy Maclin returned from his hip injury against the G-Men to play 64-of-69 snaps, but struggled to create separation against CB Prince Amukamara and was targeted on just three occasions, securing one for seven yards. I still like Maclin over the course of the season, but am worried he'll struggle again this week against Steelers RCB Ike Taylor. Consider Maclin a WR3 option until he picks up his box-score production. A healthy Maclin can still be a top 15-20 fantasy wide receiver in the final 11 games.

DeSean Jackson has been an inconsistent scorer and will likely always be because he's a limited route runner who relies on vertical shots. But Jackson has a better on-paper matchup than Maclin in this game, squaring off with scuffling Steelers LCB Keenan Lewis. D-Jax leads the Eagles in targets and is a high-upside WR2 in Week 5. ... In-line tight end Brent Celek is a viable TE2, but comes up short of fantasy starter without a touchdown through four weeks and just one game over 65 yards. With Steelers OLB James Harrison back from his knee injury, Celek may be an integral part of Philly's Week 5 pass-protection schemes. ... While Pittsburgh annually puts the brakes on opposing ground games, LeSean McCoy has eight touchdowns in his last six matchups with top-ten run defenses and may be on the overdue verge of establishing himself as the Eagles' offensive centerpiece. Typically pass-happy head coach Andy Reid turned his offense over to McCoy in the second half of Week 4 against the Giants, even using an I-formation with a lead blocker out in front. Running off FB Stanley Havili's back, McCoy racked up 121 yards on 17 second-half carries (7.12 YPC). 73 percent of his yardage was gained with Havili in the game.

After a Week 4 bye, the Steelers are the NFL's healthiest team entering a home date with Philly. And their bellcow is back. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rushing offense, so Rashard Mendenhall will need no time to retake the lead running job. Because Mendenhall missed the entire preseason and first month, there's no way to tell how much juice is left in his legs following last January's ACL tear. He's also got a difficult matchup in his first game back. The Eagles rank 12th against the run, permit just 3.81 yards per carry, and have allowed one rushing touchdown through four games. With a much more fantasy-friendly matchup at Tennessee on deck, this would be a good "wait-and-see" week for Mendenhall owners to bench him and consider it a plus if he runs well. You'll have a confident idea of whether to start him in Week 6. ... Isaac Redman figures to handle third-down duties with Mendenhall back, while the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette anticipates Jonathan Dwyer getting "squeezed out" of the offense. ... Ben Roethlisberger's target distribution on the season: Antonio Brown 29, Mike Wallace 22, Heath Miller 20, Emmanuel Sanders 16.

Miller is a bigger part of 2012 Pittsburgh's passing offense, but he won't keep up his scoring pace. He's averaging 43 yards per game and will hurt you if he doesn't find pay dirt in a given week. The Eagles have not been kind to tight ends. They held Martellus Bennett to one catch for two yards in Week 4, and the biggest tight end performance against Philly was Dennis Pitta's scoreless 65-yard Week 2 game. ... The Eagles' corners have played well this season, but I don't think RCB Nnamdi Asomugha is the same cover guy he once was, and LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie got schooled by Domenik Hixon last week. Brown and Wallace are hitting on all cylinders early this season; Wallace is fourth in fantasy receiver points per game, while Brown is 17th. They are both every-week starters. Brown is a WR2/flex. Wallace is a WR1. ... Be it due either to a pathetic early-season run game or a philosophically pass-first approach by unpredictable playcaller Todd Haley, Roethlisberger was airing it out before the bye. He averaged 40 attempts across three games, and emerged from them ranked No. 4 among fantasy quarterbacks in per-week scoring, behind only Robert Griffin III, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Time will tell whether Haley keeps it up with Mendenhall back. I'd lean toward treating Big Ben as a QB2 against Philadelphia's top-seven pass defense, but he has a chance to prove a late-round fantasy steal when all is said and done.

Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Steelers 20

Green Bay @ Indianapolis

Ran out of Pittsburgh despite engineering four playoff offenses in five seasons, Colts OC-turned-interim coach Bruce Arians is an aggressive, up-tempo mind whose approach may veer from the power-running, smashmouth guidelines encouraged by Chuck Pagano (leukemia). Arians is a sling-it-around-the-yard type; a former college quarterback who believes throwing the ball is the best way to generate yardage and points. Andrew Luck ranks fourth in the NFL in pass attempts per game already, so Arians' presence has been felt in the box score. Particularly due to major run-game deficiencies, I'd look for this to remain a decidedly pass-first team the rest of the way. ... Arians moves his receivers around the formation, although Reggie Wayne runs the majority of his routes down the left sideline, whereas Donnie Avery operates mostly down the right. If the Packers try to take Wayne away by shadowing him with CB Tramon Williams on perimeter patterns, Avery can be a sneaky WR3 in a possible shootout indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Packers RCB Sam Shields got toasted on Saints No. 4 receiver Joseph Morgan's third-quarter 80-yard touchdown bomb last week, and gave up a ton of cushion en route to several short catches by Lance Moore.

Avery is a sleeper to lead the Colts in Week 5 receiving, but Wayne has established himself as an every-week starter. He was leading the NFL in targets before Indy's bye. ... An increase in reliance on passing formations could kick start Coby Fleener, but he has 16 yards in his past two games and went catch-less last time out. ... While T.Y. Hilton is an explosive third receiver, his 4-113-1 blowup game in Week 3 will be difficult to build on without a significant bump in field time. He's played fewer than 50 snaps this year. ... Since getting throttled by the 49ers in Week 1, Green Bay's defense has suddenly looked an awful lot stouter. Over their last three games, the Packers have held Bears, Seahawks, and Saints tailbacks to a combined 236 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (3.52 YPC). Donald Brown is easier to defend than the Chicago, Seattle, and New Orleans runners, and a safe bet to struggle on Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised if Luck led Indy in Week 5 rushing. ... Rookie back Vick Ballard has underwhelmed on 15 early-season carries, but Brown hasn't lit the world ablaze either with his 3.60 YPC average. It's fair to wonder if Arians will emerge from the bye week giving Ballard the football more. Ballard is worth stashing as an RB5.

With an upcoming four-game stretch that includes dates with Indy, St. Louis, and Jacksonville, the Packers' offensive juggernaut is just beginning to hit its stride. Dating back to the fourth quarter of Week 3's Monday night loss* to Seattle, Aaron Rodgers has completed 37 of his last 49 passes (75.5 percent) for 380 yards (7.76 YPA), four touchdowns, and one pick. Indianapolis is allowing the sixth-highest YPA to opposing passers (8.1), and the fifth highest QB rating (102.5) to go with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio against. The Packers won't struggle to move the ball on Greg Manusky's unit, so look for Rodgers to stay hot. ... Indianapolis is similarly weak versus the run, ranking 23rd in rush defense. Cedric Benson fell short of expectations against New Orleans last week, but still totaled over 100 all-purpose yards and would have had a goal-line score if Graham Harrell hadn't slipped and fumbled at the one-yard line when Rodgers left for a single play due to a poke in the eye. Quietly on pace for a career-high 48 receptions, Benson is involved in every facet of Green Bay's offense, playing 74 percent of the snaps over the past three games. A lack of big-play ability caps Benson's weekly fantasy ceiling, but he's a solid RB2 and excellent flex in this matchup.

Greg Jennings (groin) is week to week and will not play on Sunday. Rodgers' target distribution when Jennings has been sidelined this season: Jordy Nelson 18, James Jones 10, Randall Cobb 9, Benson 7, Jermichael Finley 6, Donald Driver 4, John Kuhn 3. ... Nelson got off the schneid with an 8-93-1 line against New Orleans and is back on pace for an 84-catch, 1,040-yard season, which will rise the more time Jennings misses. Nelson needs to be locked into lineups as a WR1. ... We've discussed Jones in this space, and he's a maddening fantasy player to try to predict. He seems to produce whenever we expect him not to, and tank when we envision big games. The bottom line is that Jones is now a full-time player in perhaps the league's premier passing offense. I'd be hard pressed to sit him. ... Aside from Jones, no player sees a greater increase in snaps when Jennings misses action than Cobb, who was earning more field time already. Jennings has primarily been playing in the slot. Cobb is a slot receiver and situational passing-down back, often aligning alongside Rodgers in the shotgun. Cobb is worth a look as a flex in this game, particularly in PPR and return-yardage leagues. ... It's time to start viewing Finley as a back-end TE1, along with the likes of Dennis Pitta and Brandon Pettigrew, and behind guys like Kyle Rudolph and Martellus Bennett. Finley hasn't exceeded 60 yards all season and he's gone 23 games without hitting 90. In all likelihood, Finley needs a TD to help you in any given week. He's also dropping passes again. There is increasing speculation that the Packers will cut Finley after the season.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Colts 23

Cleveland @ NY Giants

The risk of falling behind early at New York, leading to a reduction in touches, is the only Week 5 fantasy worry Trent Richardson owners might face. Although the stats are just now beginning to catch up, Richardson has been downright nasty with the ball in his hands. Able to create space for himself with explosive lateral movement and finishing his runs with ferocious power, Richardson is quietly on pace for 16 all-purpose touchdowns and has 300 total yards over the past three weeks. While the G-Men get after the passer, they are less imposing as a run-defending group. Ranked 21st against the run, the Giants are surrendering 4.55 yards per carry and present a favorable matchup for Cleveland's feature back. Think long and hard about trading for Richardson if you can still get him on the relative cheap. Over the course of their next nine games, the Browns face just one opponent ranked higher than 13th in run defense. Cleveland deals with the Steelers' annually impenetrable unit only once in fantasy season. (The other is in Week 17.) Richardson's legs are fresh after a ten-day layoff following last Thursday's game, and he is poised for a very hot stretch.

Weeden entered the NFL unprepared for a guy who turns 29 in October. He's handled pressure as if this were his first time experiencing it, and consistently locked onto his first read like he's still at Oklahoma State with Justin Blackmon. But Weeden spins the football with accuracy and velocity, and has quietly had Cleveland's offense on the move for the last three weeks. While he won't be mistaken for a fantasy option anytime soon, I do think the tangible signs of competency, in addition to CB Joe Haden's Week 6 return, bode well for the Browns' chances of staying competitive in games. They won't win many, but Richardson can rack up attempts if they stay close. It's another reason to buy T-Rich while he's still affordable on the fantasy trade market. ... It's hard to imagine starting any Browns wideout in a fantasy league considering how bad they are -- Cleveland leads the NFL in drops and top receiver Greg Little averages under 40 yards a game -- but they can have some collective success at New York if Weeden gets any time to throw. The Giants' corners have largely struggled, and top safety Kenny Phillips is out with an MCL sprain.

Eli Manning's target distribution in Hakeem Nicks' two missed games this season: Victor Cruz 21, Ramses Barden 14, Domenik Hixon 11, Martellus Bennett 10, Andre Brown 6, Rueben Randle and Ahmad Bradshaw 4. ... Cruz is the No. 6 receiver in all of fantasy over the past three weeks. On pace for an incredible stat line of 132-1,552-8, Cruz will have no trouble torching the Browns' back end without Haden. ... Cleveland's pass defense has been throttled minus its top cover guy. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco have combined to light up the Browns for 74-of-112 passing (66.1 percent), 882 yards (7.88 YPA), and a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio, not including a rushing touchdown from Flacco. Keep Eli rolling in this one. ... Bennett's one-catch, two-yard Week 4 game appears to be an anomaly. He remained an every-down player and ran a high volume of pass routes. Manning simply threw the football to Hixon, Cruz, and Barden on the perimeter. Look for Bennett to rebound against Cleveland. The Browns often use SS T.J. Ward to shadow tight ends, and he'll play this game with his hand in a club after undergoing thumb surgery on Monday.

Brown played nine snaps in Bradshaw's Week 4 return, handling the ball on all nine. Bradshaw essentially operated as the Giants' every-down back against the Eagles, struggling en route to 77 scoreless yards on 16 touches. The play-time and touch distribution suggests Bradshaw is a worthwhile Week 5 flex play, even if he's lost an alarming amount of running ability off his prime. Cleveland's rush defense has played better than its No. 19 ranking (4.04 YPC, one rushing TD allowed), though, and Brown is an RB4 at this point. Over the course of the season, the Giants' backfield is likely to cause fantasy headaches more often than not. Sell Bradshaw immediately after this week if he has a decent game. ... David Wilson dominated Philly's kickoff coverage last week, averaging 36.2 yards per return. Unfortunately, he played one offensive snap, was targeted by Eli, and dropped the pass. No playing-time bump appears imminent, but the Giants will need Wilson's speed and elusiveness in the backfield before season's end. ... Barden (concussion) and Nicks (foot, knee) are both out, so Hixon will operate as an every-down receiver lining up across from Cruz. Randle will enter in three-wide sets. Coming off a six-catch, 114-yard performance, Hixon will spend the majority of his Week 5 snaps in Browns RCB Sheldon Brown's coverage. Brown has been Cleveland's top corner with Haden on suspension, but is 33 years old and will struggle to stay with Hixon on vertical routes. This is a good-looking matchup for Hixon.

Score Prediction: Giants 30, Browns 17

1:00PM ET Games

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh

Michael Vick scored a relatively modest 18.54 standard-league fantasy points in Week 4 against the Giants, but it was his best on-field performance to date. He avoided turnovers for the first time in 2012, played under control, made big-time throws into tight windows, and kept Philly's offense moving en route to a key division win. On the heels of an extremely rocky start, I feel better about Vick's year-long fantasy outlook after that game. If he turns in another slow fantasy effort against the Steelers' No. 3 pass defense, buy low on Vick before Week 6. He's got passer-friendly shootouts coming up against Detroit, Atlanta, and New Orleans. ... Jeremy Maclin returned from his hip injury against the G-Men to play 64-of-69 snaps, but struggled to create separation against CB Prince Amukamara and was targeted on just three occasions, securing one for seven yards. I still like Maclin over the course of the season, but am worried he'll struggle again this week against Steelers RCB Ike Taylor. Consider Maclin a WR3 option until he picks up his box-score production. A healthy Maclin can still be a top 15-20 fantasy wide receiver in the final 11 games.

DeSean Jackson has been an inconsistent scorer and will likely always be because he's a limited route runner who relies on vertical shots. But Jackson has a better on-paper matchup than Maclin in this game, squaring off with scuffling Steelers LCB Keenan Lewis. D-Jax leads the Eagles in targets and is a high-upside WR2 in Week 5. ... In-line tight end Brent Celek is a viable TE2, but comes up short of fantasy starter without a touchdown through four weeks and just one game over 65 yards. With Steelers OLB James Harrison back from his knee injury, Celek may be an integral part of Philly's Week 5 pass-protection schemes. ... While Pittsburgh annually puts the brakes on opposing ground games, LeSean McCoy has eight touchdowns in his last six matchups with top-ten run defenses and may be on the overdue verge of establishing himself as the Eagles' offensive centerpiece. Typically pass-happy head coach Andy Reid turned his offense over to McCoy in the second half of Week 4 against the Giants, even using an I-formation with a lead blocker out in front. Running off FB Stanley Havili's back, McCoy racked up 121 yards on 17 second-half carries (7.12 YPC). 73 percent of his yardage was gained with Havili in the game.

After a Week 4 bye, the Steelers are the NFL's healthiest team entering a home date with Philly. And their bellcow is back. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rushing offense, so Rashard Mendenhall will need no time to retake the lead running job. Because Mendenhall missed the entire preseason and first month, there's no way to tell how much juice is left in his legs following last January's ACL tear. He's also got a difficult matchup in his first game back. The Eagles rank 12th against the run, permit just 3.81 yards per carry, and have allowed one rushing touchdown through four games. With a much more fantasy-friendly matchup at Tennessee on deck, this would be a good "wait-and-see" week for Mendenhall owners to bench him and consider it a plus if he runs well. You'll have a confident idea of whether to start him in Week 6. ... Isaac Redman figures to handle third-down duties with Mendenhall back, while the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette anticipates Jonathan Dwyer getting "squeezed out" of the offense. ... Ben Roethlisberger's target distribution on the season: Antonio Brown 29, Mike Wallace 22, Heath Miller 20, Emmanuel Sanders 16.

Miller is a bigger part of 2012 Pittsburgh's passing offense, but he won't keep up his scoring pace. He's averaging 43 yards per game and will hurt you if he doesn't find pay dirt in a given week. The Eagles have not been kind to tight ends. They held Martellus Bennett to one catch for two yards in Week 4, and the biggest tight end performance against Philly was Dennis Pitta's scoreless 65-yard Week 2 game. ... The Eagles' corners have played well this season, but I don't think RCB Nnamdi Asomugha is the same cover guy he once was, and LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie got schooled by Domenik Hixon last week. Brown and Wallace are hitting on all cylinders early this season; Wallace is fourth in fantasy receiver points per game, while Brown is 17th. They are both every-week starters. Brown is a WR2/flex. Wallace is a WR1. ... Be it due either to a pathetic early-season run game or a philosophically pass-first approach by unpredictable playcaller Todd Haley, Roethlisberger was airing it out before the bye. He averaged 40 attempts across three games, and emerged from them ranked No. 4 among fantasy quarterbacks in per-week scoring, behind only Robert Griffin III, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Time will tell whether Haley keeps it up with Mendenhall back. I'd lean toward treating Big Ben as a QB2 against Philadelphia's top-seven pass defense, but he has a chance to prove a late-round fantasy steal when all is said and done.

Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Steelers 20

Green Bay @ Indianapolis

Ran out of Pittsburgh despite engineering four playoff offenses in five seasons, Colts OC-turned-interim coach Bruce Arians is an aggressive, up-tempo mind whose approach may veer from the power-running, smashmouth guidelines encouraged by Chuck Pagano (leukemia). Arians is a sling-it-around-the-yard type; a former college quarterback who believes throwing the ball is the best way to generate yardage and points. Andrew Luck ranks fourth in the NFL in pass attempts per game already, so Arians' presence has been felt in the box score. Particularly due to major run-game deficiencies, I'd look for this to remain a decidedly pass-first team the rest of the way. ... Arians moves his receivers around the formation, although Reggie Wayne runs the majority of his routes down the left sideline, whereas Donnie Avery operates mostly down the right. If the Packers try to take Wayne away by shadowing him with CB Tramon Williams on perimeter patterns, Avery can be a sneaky WR3 in a possible shootout indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Packers RCB Sam Shields got toasted on Saints No. 4 receiver Joseph Morgan's third-quarter 80-yard touchdown bomb last week, and gave up a ton of cushion en route to several short catches by Lance Moore.

Avery is a sleeper to lead the Colts in Week 5 receiving, but Wayne has established himself as an every-week starter. He was leading the NFL in targets before Indy's bye. ... An increase in reliance on passing formations could kick start Coby Fleener, but he has 16 yards in his past two games and went catch-less last time out. ... While T.Y. Hilton is an explosive third receiver, his 4-113-1 blowup game in Week 3 will be difficult to build on without a significant bump in field time. He's played fewer than 50 snaps this year. ... Since getting throttled by the 49ers in Week 1, Green Bay's defense has suddenly looked an awful lot stouter. Over their last three games, the Packers have held Bears, Seahawks, and Saints tailbacks to a combined 236 yards and no touchdowns on 67 carries (3.52 YPC). Donald Brown is easier to defend than the Chicago, Seattle, and New Orleans runners, and a safe bet to struggle on Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised if Luck led Indy in Week 5 rushing. ... Rookie back Vick Ballard has underwhelmed on 15 early-season carries, but Brown hasn't lit the world ablaze either with his 3.60 YPC average. It's fair to wonder if Arians will emerge from the bye week giving Ballard the football more. Ballard is worth stashing as an RB5.

With an upcoming four-game stretch that includes dates with Indy, St. Louis, and Jacksonville, the Packers' offensive juggernaut is just beginning to hit its stride. Dating back to the fourth quarter of Week 3's Monday night loss* to Seattle, Aaron Rodgers has completed 37 of his last 49 passes (75.5 percent) for 380 yards (7.76 YPA), four touchdowns, and one pick. Indianapolis is allowing the sixth-highest YPA to opposing passers (8.1), and the fifth highest QB rating (102.5) to go with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio against. The Packers won't struggle to move the ball on Greg Manusky's unit, so look for Rodgers to stay hot. ... Indianapolis is similarly weak versus the run, ranking 23rd in rush defense. Cedric Benson fell short of expectations against New Orleans last week, but still totaled over 100 all-purpose yards and would have had a goal-line score if Graham Harrell hadn't slipped and fumbled at the one-yard line when Rodgers left for a single play due to a poke in the eye. Quietly on pace for a career-high 48 receptions, Benson is involved in every facet of Green Bay's offense, playing 74 percent of the snaps over the past three games. A lack of big-play ability caps Benson's weekly fantasy ceiling, but he's a solid RB2 and excellent flex in this matchup.

Greg Jennings (groin) is week to week and will not play on Sunday. Rodgers' target distribution when Jennings has been sidelined this season: Jordy Nelson 18, James Jones 10, Randall Cobb 9, Benson 7, Jermichael Finley 6, Donald Driver 4, John Kuhn 3. ... Nelson got off the schneid with an 8-93-1 line against New Orleans and is back on pace for an 84-catch, 1,040-yard season, which will rise the more time Jennings misses. Nelson needs to be locked into lineups as a WR1. ... We've discussed Jones in this space, and he's a maddening fantasy player to try to predict. He seems to produce whenever we expect him not to, and tank when we envision big games. The bottom line is that Jones is now a full-time player in perhaps the league's premier passing offense. I'd be hard pressed to sit him. ... Aside from Jones, no player sees a greater increase in snaps when Jennings misses action than Cobb, who was earning more field time already. Jennings has primarily been playing in the slot. Cobb is a slot receiver and situational passing-down back, often aligning alongside Rodgers in the shotgun. Cobb is worth a look as a flex in this game, particularly in PPR and return-yardage leagues. ... It's time to start viewing Finley as a back-end TE1, along with the likes of Dennis Pitta and Brandon Pettigrew, and behind guys like Kyle Rudolph and Martellus Bennett. Finley hasn't exceeded 60 yards all season and he's gone 23 games without hitting 90. In all likelihood, Finley needs a TD to help you in any given week. He's also dropping passes again. There is increasing speculation that the Packers will cut Finley after the season.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Colts 23

Cleveland @ NY Giants

The risk of falling behind early at New York, leading to a reduction in touches, is the only Week 5 fantasy worry Trent Richardson owners might face. Although the stats are just now beginning to catch up, Richardson has been downright nasty with the ball in his hands. Able to create space for himself with explosive lateral movement and finishing his runs with ferocious power, Richardson is quietly on pace for 16 all-purpose touchdowns and has 300 total yards over the past three weeks. While the G-Men get after the passer, they are less imposing as a run-defending group. Ranked 21st against the run, the Giants are surrendering 4.55 yards per carry and present a favorable matchup for Cleveland's feature back. Think long and hard about trading for Richardson if you can still get him on the relative cheap. Over the course of their next nine games, the Browns face just one opponent ranked higher than 13th in run defense. Cleveland deals with the Steelers' annually impenetrable unit only once in fantasy season. (The other is in Week 17.) Richardson's legs are fresh after a ten-day layoff following last Thursday's game, and he is poised for a very hot stretch.

Weeden entered the NFL unprepared for a guy who turns 29 in October. He's handled pressure as if this were his first time experiencing it, and consistently locked onto his first read like he's still at Oklahoma State with Justin Blackmon. But Weeden spins the football with accuracy and velocity, and has quietly had Cleveland's offense on the move for the last three weeks. While he won't be mistaken for a fantasy option anytime soon, I do think the tangible signs of competency, in addition to CB Joe Haden's Week 6 return, bode well for the Browns' chances of staying competitive in games. They won't win many, but Richardson can rack up attempts if they stay close. It's another reason to buy T-Rich while he's still affordable on the fantasy trade market. ... It's hard to imagine starting any Browns wideout in a fantasy league considering how bad they are -- Cleveland leads the NFL in drops and top receiver Greg Little averages under 40 yards a game -- but they can have some collective success at New York if Weeden gets any time to throw. The Giants' corners have largely struggled, and top safety Kenny Phillips is out with an MCL sprain.

Eli Manning's target distribution in Hakeem Nicks' two missed games this season: Victor Cruz 21, Ramses Barden 14, Domenik Hixon 11, Martellus Bennett 10, Andre Brown 6, Rueben Randle and Ahmad Bradshaw 4. ... Cruz is the No. 6 receiver in all of fantasy over the past three weeks. On pace for an incredible stat line of 132-1,552-8, Cruz will have no trouble torching the Browns' back end without Haden. ... Cleveland's pass defense has been throttled minus its top cover guy. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco have combined to light up the Browns for 74-of-112 passing (66.1 percent), 882 yards (7.88 YPA), and a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio, not including a rushing touchdown from Flacco. Keep Eli rolling in this one. ... Bennett's one-catch, two-yard Week 4 game appears to be an anomaly. He remained an every-down player and ran a high volume of pass routes. Manning simply threw the football to Hixon, Cruz, and Barden on the perimeter. Look for Bennett to rebound against Cleveland. The Browns often use SS T.J. Ward to shadow tight ends, and he'll play this game with his hand in a club after undergoing thumb surgery on Monday.

Brown played nine snaps in Bradshaw's Week 4 return, handling the ball on all nine. Bradshaw essentially operated as the Giants' every-down back against the Eagles, struggling en route to 77 scoreless yards on 16 touches. The play-time and touch distribution suggests Bradshaw is a worthwhile Week 5 flex play, even if he's lost an alarming amount of running ability off his prime. Cleveland's rush defense has played better than its No. 19 ranking (4.04 YPC, one rushing TD allowed), though, and Brown is an RB4 at this point. Over the course of the season, the Giants' backfield is likely to cause fantasy headaches more often than not. Sell Bradshaw immediately after this week if he has a decent game. ... David Wilson dominated Philly's kickoff coverage last week, averaging 36.2 yards per return. Unfortunately, he played one offensive snap, was targeted by Eli, and dropped the pass. No playing-time bump appears imminent, but the Giants will need Wilson's speed and elusiveness in the backfield before season's end. ... Barden (concussion) and Nicks (foot, knee) are both out, so Hixon will operate as an every-down receiver lining up across from Cruz. Randle will enter in three-wide sets. Coming off a six-catch, 114-yard performance, Hixon will spend the majority of his Week 5 snaps in Browns RCB Sheldon Brown's coverage. Brown has been Cleveland's top corner with Haden on suspension, but is 33 years old and will struggle to stay with Hixon on vertical routes. This is a good-looking matchup for Hixon.

Score Prediction: Giants 30, Browns 17

Atlanta @ Washington

The 51.5-point over-under on Falcons-Skins is third highest of the Week 5 games, and I think it's on the conservative side. Both offenses do things the opposing defenses have shown they can't stop. Atlanta runs a pass-happy offense, and Washington's secondary couldn't cover a corpse. The Redskins run a ton of read-option plays, which gave the Falcons fits in last week's narrow escape from Carolina. I'd feel good about firing up skill-position players on both sides in this one. ... Matt Ryan has completed 183-of-272 passes (67.3 percent) for 2,185 yards (8.03 YPA) and a 21:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last eight regular season games. Atlanta is 7-1. The torrid early-season pace clearly isn't a fluke; Ryan was heating up late last year, and he's now right there with Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Robert Griffin III as fantasy quarterback difference makers. If he stays healthy, I don't think Ryan will have trouble throwing 40 touchdown passes this season. ... The Week 4 touch ratio (16:10) between Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers was in line with what we expected, but Turner played seven more snaps as Atlanta dialed up power runs to gash a tissue-soft Panthers front seven. Turner came away with a monster fantasy game (13-103, 3-68-1). The receiving TD was the first of his career. Keep trotting out Turner as long as he has favorable matchups like this one, but he is going to hit a wall soon.

The Redskins have allowed a league-most five opposing wideouts to top 100 yards against them through four games. They've also served up NFL highs in touchdown passes (11) and 40-plus yard completions (6). Only the Buccaneers have permitted more 20-plus yard pass plays than Jim Haslett's group. This secondary is an absolute sieve, and Falcons OC Dirk Koetter's pass design is vertical in nature. Might wanna start Roddy White and Julio Jones. ... The box score shows eight Week 4 targets for Jones, although it sure didn't seem like that many if you watched the game. I thought it was clear early that White would be featured against Carolina, perhaps due to Jones' lacerated hand. It looked like part of the game plan; White was targeted on each of Ryan's first three throws and six of his first eight. Both of these guys can light up Haslett's defense, so it shouldn't matter in Week 5 now that Jones is fully recovered and catching passes without issue on the practice field. Tampa's Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are inferior receivers with an inferior quarterback, and they dropped respective stat lines of 4-115 and 6-100-1 on Washington last week. ... Don't look now, but Tony Gonzalez is the No. 1 fantasy tight end through one month of action. Getting open at will while White and Jones attract all the attention along the perimeter, the ageless Gonzalez is on pace for a career-high 104 catches, 1,060 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

The Falcons and Redskins are 2012 fantasy juggernauts, and they're both here to stay. Only an injury (wood knock) can derail RG3 at this point. Griffin enjoyed his best passing performance on the season in Week 4, and there is reason to believe he'll keep getting better as top wide receiver Pierre Garcon's foot heals, Fred Davis continues to get more comfortable in the revised offense, and Leonard Hankerson assumes a more consistent down-to-down role. The Falcons' No. 8 pass defense looks imposing on paper, but didn't deter Cam Newton from a 30-plus point fantasy game last week and Griffin has already flashed matchup-proof ability. There may not be a higher-upside fantasy quarterback than RG3 week to week. ... Though Garcon's Week 4 box score shows just one 20-yard catch, he played 50-of-76 snaps and is back on the WR3 radar with WR2 upside. When healthy, Garcon is the featured player in Shanahan & Son's passing game. Garcon will play a majority of his snaps against RCB Dunta Robinson in this contest, and Robinson is struggling as he has throughout his Atlanta stint. ... Hankerson's Week 4 snap count was 68-of-76, although he runs short, possession routes as a Z receiver when Garcon is healthy and does a lot of blocking. Hankerson won't be a consistent or high-scoring fantasy producer unless Garcon gets hurt again. He’ll deal with LCB Asante Samuel for most of Week 5.

Friday Update: Garcon practiced fully every day this week and is listed as probable on the injury report, meaning the Redskins believe he's a "virtual certainty" to resume normal game-day responsibilities. Garcon will be an every-down receiver against the Falcons, in a projected shootout game. It's time to get him back into your lineup as a fantasy regular.

Davis began becoming more involved in Washington's passing attack in Week 3. Griffin's target distribution since: Hankerson 18, Davis 11, Josh Morgan 8, Evan Royster and Santana Moss 7, Garcon 1. Davis has 160 yards over his past two games, but I'd still want to see more from him before starting Davis in a fantasy league. He racked up targets in Week 3 comeback mode and saw only four in Week 4. ... Moss and Morgan are rotating role players unworthy of fantasy roster spots. ... Garcon's one target is not indicative of things to come. ... The Redskins' running game is rolling, spearheaded by Griffin and system back Alfred Morris, who runs a 4.7 forty but is beloved by the coaching staff for his ball security and scheme fit. Morris owners should secure Royster as a handcuff, but the rookie has job security barring the unforeseen. On his last 51 carries, Morris has 272 yards (5.33 YPC) and two TDs. He's avoided negative runs and not fumbled once on 121 combined preseason and regular season rushing attempts. Matchups don't matter when the Shanahan's zone scheme is clicking, and it's on fire right now. Morris is approaching RB1 value.

Score Prediction: Falcons 38, Redskins 28

Miami @ Cincinnati

While the final yardage stats were probably a bit loftier than even the most optimistic Dolphins fanboy might have projected, Brian Hartline's mammoth Week 4 game didn't quite come out of the blue. Hartline roasted the Oakland secondary for 111 yards on nine receptions in Week 2 and has been the NFL's second most heavily targeted receiver over the past three weeks, behind only Dwayne Bowe. In addition to a badly blown coverage by Arizona on Hartline's 80-yard touchdown, last week's leap forward occurred because of rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill's willingness to throw to Hartline in contested situations. It's a very positive development for Hartline's fantasy outlook. While Cincinnati's No. 16 pass defense is expected to get starting CBs Nate Clements (calf) and Leon Hall (hamstring) back from injury this week, I don't think their secondary was ever going to be very good. Though he lacks special physical talent, Hartline runs crisp routes, is willing to get physical in traffic, and will be a worthwhile plug-and-play WR3 with top-20 fantasy receiver upside the rest of the way. ... Tannehill's target distribution over the past three games: Hartline 40, Davone Bess 25, Anthony Fasano 18, Reggie Bush 6. ... Fasano is averaging 29 yards per game and 7.7 yards per catch. Completely devoid of playmaking ability, Fasano isn't even TE2 material.

Bess is a serviceable PPR option and coming off a career-best 123-yard game, but he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 16 of last season and offers little to no standard-league appeal. ... One mismatch in Sunday's game Tannehill may have to worry about is rookie RT Jonathan Martin versus Bengals LE Carlos Dunlap. While Dunlap's Week 3 return from a knee injury has single-handedly sparked Cincinnati's defense, Martin has struggled mightily in pass protection in the first month. Despite his 431-yard Week 4 effort, Tannehill is a low-end QB2. ... Although it wasn't fully exposed by Maurice Jones-Drew last week because the Jaguars abandoned the run too early, the Bengals' defensive weakness is against the run. Ranked 24th in rush defense and surrendering 5.45 yards per carry to go with five rushing touchdowns allowed through four games, Cincinnati presents a favorable matchup for Reggie Bush. Playing through a knee injury, I thought Bush looked healthy last week against the Cardinals and would expect him to be more involved in the passing game this time around. Bush is the No. 9 fantasy running back on the young season.

Friday Update: Actually listed on this week's injury report with a hip ailment, Bush turned in full practices each day of the week and is listed as probable. His knee injury now in the rearview mirror, Bush resumes RB2 every-week starter status with RB1 upside.

Andy Dalton has caught fire against a string of defenses that either generate no up-front pressure or play like a college team in the secondary. Or both. In matchups with Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville, Dalton has completed 63-of-89 passes (70.8 percent) for 890 yards (10.0 YPA), and an 8:3 TD-to-INT ratio, also scrambling in a ninth score. He'll get a fourth straight favorable matchup against the Dolphins, who bring to the table LE Cameron Wake and little else when it comes to difference-making pass-game defenders. Miami's one-dimensional defense ranks first against the run and 30th versus the pass, tempting offenses to resort to the air to generate ball movement, and oftentimes pile up passing attempts. That's good news for fantasy quarterbacks. Dalton is worth riding while he's hot, but the jury is still very much out on his long-range fantasy impact. ... Ostensibly after watching Santonio Holmes work over teammate Richard Marshall relentlessly in Week 3, Dolphins CB Sean Smith begged Miami's coaching staff to let him shadow No. 1 receivers. He did so with moderate success against Larry Fitzgerald in Week 4, and will draw A.J. Green in coverage this week. While Smith makes plays on the ball, tackles well, and is a competitive cover guy, he's hardly a shutdown force. Green is the No. 1 wideout in all of fantasy.

Bengals in-line tight end Jermaine Gresham has yet to clear 65 yards in a game this season and has two touchdowns in his last ten. He's a low-end TE2 lacking upside. ... Slot receiver Andrew Hawkins remained a 50-percent player in Week 4 as the Bengals show no urgency to increase his snaps. While Hawkins opened the season with three straight solid fantasy efforts, consistency will be elusive because he doesn't get enough playing time. ... Armon Binns went catch-less in Week 4, as did split end rotation partner Brandon Tate. Neither of them is worthy of a fantasy roster spot. ... Long praised for his ball security, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has lost fumbles in back-to-back games and is averaging 3.05 yards per carry over his last three. He's now gone 354 playoff and regular season rushing attempts without a 20-yard run. Green-Ellis simply has no big-play ability, and needs heavy volume and goal-line scores to produce at a viable rate. He is sure to struggle against Miami's stout front seven. If you own Green-Ellis, it's time to bail on him while you still can.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Dolphins 17

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Joe Flacco's willingness to throw to Torrey Smith even when he's "covered" is a strong indication that Flacco believes Smith has developed into a true No. 1 receiver. Perhaps because he got the go-ahead from OC Cam Cameron following Week 2, Flacco has consistently "thrown open" Smith the past two games, en route to 12 catches, 224 yards, and three TDs on a team-high 20 targets. Smith can burn Chiefs RCB Stanford Routt when he aligns at X receiver, and LCB Brandon Flowers appeared on the Week 5 injury report after suffering a setback with his training-camp heel ailment. Smith is on fire and has a great matchup. Start him. ... What the heck happened to Chiefs SS Eric Berry? Berry looked like a future All Pro as a rookie before tearing his ACL last year and getting burnt alive in Kansas City's first four games this season. Berry's play has been a major reason for the 1-3 Chiefs' defensive struggles. He's getting turned around in pass coverage -- last week by Antonio Gates, Jackie Battle, and Eddie Royal -- and Berry's tackling has been noticeably poor on the field. Look for red-hot Flacco to attack this underachieving secondary. The Chiefs have allowed a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing passing games. They are getting lit up.

Flacco's target distribution through four weeks: Dennis Pitta 33, Ray Rice 30, Smith and Anquan Boldin 28, Jacoby Jones 16, Ed Dickson 9. ... At this stage of Boldin's career, he's a similar player to Pitta; essentially a rocked-up tight end who does his damage over the middle. Because Boldin and Pitta operate in the same portions of the field, the tight end's production could take a hit whenever the Ravens' slot receiver experiences increased involvement in a certain game. This was the case last Thursday night, though an extreme one. Boldin was targeted a team-high 12 times, securing nine for 131 yards. The yardage total was Boldin's personal high in his last 14 games. Pitta was targeted twice and caught neither. I'd lean toward calling Pitta the better bet for production going forward, but there are certainly no guarantees. This is the risk you'll run when considering Pitta a fantasy starter. Still, this matchup with Berry is very enticing. The Chiefs have consistently used Berry to shadow tight ends. ... Kansas City ranks 20th against the run and should pose no serious challenge for Ray Rice. Rice is the No. 4 running back in all of fantasy and will have fresh legs Sunday. His last game was ten days ago.

Watch Matt Cassel play ball for an extended stretch, and you may begin to feel sorry for Dwayne Bowe. What could have been. Cassel is on pace for 40 turnovers this season. He has accounted for eight touchdowns and 15 turnovers in his last eight games. Cassel's ball location was a major issue last week against San Diego, relentlessly missing open receivers. And all three of Cassel's INTs were on him. It's not too bold to say coach Romeo Crennel may have a quick hook in this game. Brady Quinn isn't the answer, but something has to change. ... Bowe owners should still hope Cassel stays in there. Quinn's accuracy is even worse. Cassel at least knows where to go with the ball; Bowe leads the NFL in targets over the past three weeks and things come full circle when Cassel is turning it over, because Bowe gets to rack up stats in garbage time. The Ravens "play sides" at cornerback, so Bowe will square off plenty with burnable RCB Cary Williams and struggling LCB Jimmy Smith. Ravens top CB Lardarius Webb covers the slot on passing downs, where he'll deal with Dexter McCluster. ... Though not quite an every-down receiver, Jon Baldwin has passed Steve Breaston on the depth chart. Baldwin started over Breaston in Week 4, playing 55-of-75 snaps compared to Breaston's 15. Baldwin has a lot of upside and should be rostered as a WR5 in all 12-team leagues. If Bowe went down, I think Baldwin could be an every-week starter.

Fantasy owners who sold off Jamaal Charles after a slow first two games -- and there were many -- ought to be feeling a little sick to their stomachs right now. Okay, a lot sick. Charles was sensational for a second straight game in Week 4, shaking off two early fumbles before slicing and dicing through the San Diego front and back ends for 115 total yards and two touchdowns. He was the best player on the field for the final three quarters. Throw out Week 2 where Charles suffered a minor knee bruise, and he's compiled 412 yards on 66 carries (6.24 YPC). Since he's being employed as a workhorse with Peyton Hillis (ankle) still out, and Baltimore's run defense has been less than dominant in the post-Terrell Suggs era, Charles can be started as a confident RB1 in this game. ... As alluded to above, McCluster has the most difficult Week 5 matchup of any Chiefs receiver and can be dropped in the majority of fantasy leagues. He's averaging 24 total yards over his past three games. ... Tony Moeaki may take on increased blocking duties with Kevin Boss (concussion) on injured reserve. Moeaki has 17 targets on the year, securing nine.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 17

4:05PM ET Games

Seattle @ Carolina

NFL Films' Greg Cosell has described the Seahawks' kid-gloves treatment of Russell Wilson as "hiding" their rookie QB. While Wilson hasn't played well enough for Seattle to justify otherwise, 25 pass attempts per week is low even for a game manager. Wilson was picked off three times by the Rams in Week 4, and didn't account for a single touchdown in the 19-13 let-down loss. There is increasing chatter that Wilson's leash is shortening, with higher-paid Matt Flynn perhaps poised to soon take over. ... The Seahawks are 2-2. They've been competitive in all four games, though, by playing shutdown defense and leaning on a heavily run-based offense. The wide receivers are essentially down-to-down decoys in an offense like this, which only throws the ball as a change-of-pace play or out of desperation. Golden Tate is averaging 38 yards per start. Sidney Rice is averaging 44. I think Tate is the best Week 5 fantasy bet in Seattle's receiver corps because he consistently plays more snaps than Rice and flashes superior separation skills, but neither would be a strong play. They’re shots in the dark.

We've discussed the poor structure of Carolina's defense in this space before. The Panthers have a bunch of good linebackers. But they have just one good lineman (LE Charles Johnson), and one good defensive back (LCB Gamble), and opposing offenses move the football with ease against them. Most commonly susceptible in run defense, Carolina is permitting 4.86 YPC on the ground and has been lit up by known plodders Andre Brown and Michael Turner for a combined 216 yards on 33 carries (6.55 YPC) and three touchdowns in successive weeks. Physical runners give the Panthers' defense the most trouble, and there might not be a more physical back in the league than NFL rushing leader Marshawn Lynch. For Lynch, this mismatch may lead to a blowup game.

Friday Update: Panthers MLB Jon Beason (knee) is listed as doubtful for Week 5, improving Lynch's matchup. Gamble (shoulder) is also listed as doubtful. The Seahawks should have their way against this defense.

Last week I wrote about a trade-off taking place between Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell, and how I'd like to see one emerge from the weekly "competition" for No. 2 pass-catching duties behind Steve Smith. Olsen has done that and then some. The Panthers' leader in targets on the season, Olsen has outproduced LaFell in 3-of-4 games. LaFell was held catch-less last week and is being exposed as a mediocre talent. Expect Olsen to be the guy OC Rob Chudzinski looks to get the ball to when he's not running plays for Smith the rest of the way. Ranked 10th in tight end scoring through the season's first month, Olsen is a quality TE1 start against a Seahawks defense more vulnerable down the seam than outside. ... LaFell will do a lot of route running against Seahawks LCB Richard Sherman, which can be a very difficult task. One of the NFL's most proficient route disruptors, Sherman could render LaFell a fantasy non-factor for his third straight game. ... Smith will deal with RCB Brandon Browner in this one. Browner is another big, physical cornerback who will try to jam him at the line. If Smitty blows by him, however, -- and here's guessing he will a couple of times on Sunday -- stiff-hipped Browner will struggle to turn and run with Carolina's best wide receiver. Trot out Steve Smith with confidence in this fantasy matchup.

Similar to their Week 2 strategy against the Saints, the Panthers scaled back the volume of their passing offense in Week 4 at Atlanta and resumed generating consistent ball movement. Passing bonanzas make more highlight reels, but this can be among the league's most dynamic offenses -- and Cam Newton one of the NFL's most dominant players -- when the read-option run game is the foundation of Chudzinski's play calling. Newton has fewer than 25 pass attempts in six games so far in his career. His combined stats in them are 84-of-128 (65.6 percent) for 1,248 yards (9.75 YPA), and a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Cam has also rushed 59 times for 390 yards (6.61 YPC) and seven more touchdowns in those six games. The Panthers will have to throw more than that on occasion due to unforeseeable game flow and their sieve of a defense, but, clearly, they are at their best leaning on the running game. While Seattle plays run-tough defense, Pete Carroll's group has yet to encounter an offense quite like this. ... Jonathan Stewart returned from his balky ankle in Week 4 to touch the football 11 times, gaining 48 total yards. DeAngelo Williams gained 51 yards on 12 touches and scored on a 13-yard run. Because they halve the weekly workload, neither Stewart nor Williams will be a strong fantasy option unless the other one gets injured. And in Williams’ case, that may not even be enough.

Score Prediction: Panthers 20, Seahawks 17

Chicago @ Jacksonville

Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew's running and RCB Derek Cox's one-side-of-the-field coverage, the Jaguars are doing little well as a team. Their pass defense got lit up by Andy Dalton in Week 4. They abandoned the run and rendered their best offensive player a non-factor. They can't put heat on the quarterback. Their run defense has been obliterated. The O-Line can't protect Blaine Gabbert. On paper, at least, the Bears should control this game from start to finish, with Matt Forte at the forefront. Missing dynamite SLB Daryl Smith (groin) for the first month, Jacksonville ranks 30th in run defense and has allowed six rushing touchdowns through four games. Although he wasn't quite himself during last Monday night's win over Dallas, Forte emerged from the game with only routine ankle soreness and will start this week. He's a top-ten running back play again. ... Rumored to be playing through a significant shoulder injury, Michael Bush was ineffective on 11 touches against the Cowboys, gaining 37 yards. Perhaps he'll replace Forte if the Bears get deep in scoring position, but Bush is a low-end flex option against the Jags. ... Jay Cutler's target distribution on the year: Brandon Marshall 39, Alshon Jeffery 19, Earl Bennett and Kellen Davis 14, Forte 12, Devin Hester 9, Bush 3. ... After publicly whining about his role leading up to Week 4, the Bears appeased Hester with three touches at Dallas, also freeing him up for a 34-yard touchdown catch. Hester has seven offensive touches on the year and isn't on the fantasy radar.

Cutler can carve up a defense with time to throw, and he should have plenty of it at Jacksonville. A pathetic Jaguars pass rush has two sacks on the season. DC Mel Tucker's Cover-2 scheme won't work without front-four pressure, and he's not getting any. Cutler is worth a long look as a matchup play. ... The Bears move Marshall all around the formation, while Cox sticks to one side. Coming off his 7-138-1 evisceration of Cowboys CB Brandon Carr, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know Marshall is a strong fantasy start. ... Davis is averaging 26 yards per game. Although Tucker's defense can be susceptible down the middle, Davis is not even a big enough part of Chicago's passing offense to be a viable TE2. ... Jeffery's 74.1-percent snap rate in Week 4 was the highest it's been all season, but he was targeted just five times, reeling in three for 32 yards. While Jeffery may have a bright future playing opposite Marshall, he's not to the point of bye-week WR3 yet. ... Bennett has a hand injury and didn't play last Monday. He was serving a bit role before the scratch, with six catches for 82 scoreless yards in Chicago's first three games.

In perhaps the biggest on-paper mismatch of Sunday's slate, the Jags' 30th-ranked offense will take aim at a Bears defense that ranks third against the run, is one off the league lead in sacks, and leads the NFL in interceptions. Jaguars top pass catcher Laurent Robinson will not play due to a concussion. While Justin Blackmon put himself back on the radar with six catches for 48 yards in Week 4, Jacksonville's passing offense is destined to struggle in this matchup. ... Look for Marcedes Lewis to spend a ton of time on the line helping the Jaguars' tackles block Julius Peppers. ... Chad Henne isn't the answer to the Jaguars' passing-game woes, but it will be interesting to see whether Mike Mularkey & Co. consider turning to him at the Week 6 bye. There is little reason for optimism on Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't moved the offense since Week 1. ... Mularkey's post-game admission that he underutilized Jones-Drew in Week 4 against the Bengals does bode promisingly for MJD's Week 5 workload. To even be competitive, Jacksonville must get Jones-Drew the rock early and often. The matchup is really difficult, but workload should not be a problem. Keep your expectations within reason and start Jones-Drew as a borderline RB1.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Jaguars 10

4:25PM ET Games

Denver @ New England

The 52-point over-under on Broncos-Pats is second highest of Week 5. When Peyton Manning and Tom Brady go toe to toe shootouts typically result, so fire up your guys. ... I re-watched Raiders-Broncos this week and thought Willis McGahee was the most explosive runner on the same field as Darren McFadden. McGahee made unblocked defenders miss and was terrific on cutbacks, spotting holes where plays weren't necessarily designed to flow and accelerating into them. On his last 62 carries, McGahee has 307 yards (4.95 YPC) and three TDs. He's also consistently gotten better late in games. The Pats are defending the run well, but McGahee is a stud RB2. ... Ronnie Hillman is quietly ascending the depth chart and showed impressive burst in a change-up role against Oakland. Hillman would need a McGahee injury to be start-able, but he's a player to monitor. ... Manning's 2012 target distribution: Eric Decker 36, Demaryius Thomas 35, Jacob Tamme 25, Brandon Stokley 17, Joel Dreessen 12, McGahee 11. ... Peyton has ultimately had one bad quarter this season. Throw out that three-interception first frame in Week 2 against Atlanta, and Manning has completed 92-of-143 passes (64.3 percent) for 1,117 yards (7.81 YPA), and an 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio through four games. Silencing the doubters, Manning is a QB1 again.

The ball isn't going to Tamme enough to get him on the TE1 radar. He's a low-end fantasy backup averaging 31 yards per game. I don't think the fact that New England's defense has given up a bunch of touchdowns to tight ends means much for Tamme. Over the Broncos' last three games, he's played 127-of-239 snaps (53.1 percent). ... As Chris Wesseling noted, Demaryius Thomas is doing his damage with run-after-catch dominance on wide receiver screens. If he can cut down on the mistakes -- Thomas has lost two fumbles and dropped five balls -- he might surpass Decker as Peyton's favorite target. Even amid error-prone play, Thomas has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in three of the first four games and is top 12 in fantasy receiver scoring. His physicality will give Patriots RCBs Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore trouble down the left sideline. ... Decker will match up with LCB Devin McCourty in this game. McCourty has rediscovered rookie-year form as a cover man and tackler, and poses a difficult matchup for Denver's hottest receiver. Decker remains a quality fantasy start, but I like Thomas to lead the Broncos in Week 5 receiving stats.

Aaron Hernandez (ankle) has returned to limited practice, but won't resume game play until Week 6. Tom Brady's target distribution since Hernandez left in the first quarter of Week 2: Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker 32, Rob Gronkowski 23, Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley 5, Shane Vereen 2, Brandon Bolden 1. ... The Pats have a voluminous, efficient passing attack capable of supporting three fantasy-viable pass catchers. Lloyd, Gronk, and Welker can all get "theirs" on a weekly basis, so there are no real consistency issues, at least until Hernandez reenters the picture. ... I'm not worried about Champ Bailey "shadowing" Lloyd because they play on opposite sides of the formation. Per Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus and Rotoworld, Lloyd has played 56 percent of his snaps at LWR, 39 percent at RWR, and five percent in the slot. Bailey has played 79.6 percent of his snaps at LCB. Bailey sticks to one side of the field and Lloyd goes more often against the other. Look for Lloyd to spend most of Sunday playing in more burnable RCB Tracy Porter's coverage. PFF has charted Porter with 268 yards and three touchdowns allowed in the first four games. ... The Broncos have allowed 22 receptions for 239 yards and three TDs to tight ends, roughly equating to a 6/60/1 weekly stat line. And they haven't faced any tight end remotely as good as Gronkowski. Comfortably expect another big game from the beastly talent.

Surgical his last two times out, Brady has completed 53 of his last 81 passes (65.4 percent) for 705 yards (8.7 YPA), a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and scrambled in a sixth score. The Broncos rank a respectable 13th against the pass, but have an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio against. It's not an imposing group. ... Welker is on a roll with Hernandez gone, making himself impossible to pull off the field when Hernandez gets back. Across the NFL, only Brian Hartline has more receiving yards over the past three weeks. Ride Welker. ... Bolden's increased Week 4 role seemed to be game-plan based. The undrafted rookie finished with a 16-137-1 line and was involved from start to finish; Bolden wasn't just getting garbage-time carries. While he possesses better straight-line speed than Stevan Ridley, Bolden is much less proficient at making guys miss and lacks Ridley's power. My best guess is Bolden was so heavily involved because playcaller Josh McDaniels set out to attack Buffalo's defense with the run game. I also wouldn't be surprised if Bolden doesn't get that many carries for the rest of the season. ... Stevan Ridley is the No. 8 overall fantasy back and should be locked into lineups against a Denver defense that ranks ninth against the run but won't finish the season nearly that high. One situation to look out for, though, is a late-game fumble by Ridley out of bounds against Buffalo. Ball security woes got Ridley benched late last season.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Broncos 24

Buffalo @ San Francisco

Buffalo is off to its annual hot offensive start, but brakes will be put on Ryan Fitzpatrick's crew in Week 5. San Francisco won't let Fitzpatrick pick apart a zone, instead playing their typical press coverage on the outside while Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, and the NFL's two best inside 'backers manhandle Buffalo in the trenches. The Bills will be without two starting offensive linemen in this game; LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik suffered serious ankle injuries in last week's blowout loss to New England. Glenn was fast tracking toward All-Rookie Team honors with the way he played in the first three games. Urbik is rock solid in both the run and pass games and has graded as the league's sixth-best guard by Pro Football Focus to this point. These are major losses at critical positions entering a matchup like this. For fantasy lineup decisions, I'd strongly consider avoiding the entire Bills passing offense in Week 5. ... Stevie Johnson is off to a slow start, though fantasy owners aren't whining because he scored a touchdown in each of the first three games. Johnson is on pace for just 780 yards, which would be a three-year low. He had a 2-23-0 line in Week 4. Johnson will get back on track eventually, but I might put him on a wait-and-see week.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I think Vic Fangio's defense will shut down Chan Gailey's offense. The 49ers rank top six against both the run and pass and are a far more physical defense than the Bills are an offense. If the Week 4 workload distribution was any indication, Buffalo's backfield will be a near-even timeshare going forward, with Fred Jackson handling the majority of between-the-tackles carries and C.J. Spiller operating out in space. If that remains the case at San Francisco, I'll like Spiller's chances better of hitting a big play against such a stout front. Jackson plays in the pass game enough to salvage some fantasy value, but I expect him to struggle in this matchup. ... While starting any Bills skill-position player would require a Week 5 leap of faith, Scott Chandler has settled in as Buffalo's top week-by-week bet for touchdowns. Fitzpatrick and Gailey are very much willing to dial up pass plays deep in the red zone, where Chandler towers above the crowd at 6-foot-7 with a vertical leap that might surprise you. Just keep in mind Chandler hurts fantasy owners when he doesn't find pay dirt. He's on pace for only 48 receptions and 700 yards.

We're closing in on that time when you sell Frank Gore high in fantasy leagues. With the Giants, Seahawks, Cardinals, upstart Rams, and Bears following up on the slate, doing so immediately after Week 5 might be the ideal time. Now 29, Gore has over 2,000 touches worth of wear on his tires. His 2011 campaign hit the skids in November, as Gore averaged 3.49 yards per carry in the final eight games after posting a 4.92 YPC clip in the first half. A year older now, it's reasonable to project he'll resume slowing down a bit sooner. Brandon Jacobs' return as a goal-line specialist further threatens Gore's fantasy stock. Start Gore against a Bills defense that ranks 28th against the run and served up a Week 4 monster game to New England's Bolden-Ridley backfield, then put Gore on the trade block next Monday. ... 49ers backup QB Colin Kaepernick is an explosive zone-read package weapon. He gashed the Jets for 50 yards and a touchdown on five Week 4 runs, and has 67 rushing yards on the year. Kaepernick remains off the standard-league fantasy radar, but this is a hint at his scoring upside should Alex Smith ever miss time. Kaepernick has a power arm for vertical "shot-play" throws, and is an electrifying athlete with the ball in his hands.

Kendall Hunter would be San Francisco's main back if Gore broke down and should be rostered in all leagues. Possessing some stand-alone value as a pace-change runner in a run-first offense, Hunter is averaging seven touches per game and 4.6 yards per carry. ... Michael Crabtree's name is bigger than his game. Lacking big-play ability, Crabtree is strictly a possession receiver averaging under 10 yards a catch this year without a touchdown. Crabtree does have a favorable Week 5 matchup against weekly whipping boy CB Leodis McKelvin in the slot and up-and-down Bills LCB Aaron Williams. ... The 49ers didn't need to throw to beat the Jets last week, so everyone in the San Francisco pass attack had a slow box score, unless you count Kaepernick. Smith resumes low-end QB2 value while Vernon Davis squares off with a Bills safety and linebacker corps that has surrendered 22 receptions for 278 yards and three scores to tight ends through four games. It's an average weekly stat line of roughly 6-70-1. Particularly with Bills FS Jairus Byrd battling a hip pointer, it's a good bet that Davis will be open frequently in this game. ... We've discussed Mario Manningham and Randy Moss' roles repeatedly in this space before, and you won't want to use either one of them in a fantasy league unless the other one gets injured.

Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Bills 13

Tennessee @ Minnesota

The Vikings beat the Lions with special teams and defense last week. Percy Harvin returned the opening kick 105 yards to pay dirt, and two quarters later Marcus Sherels housed a punt return from 77 yards out. Aside from a late-game scrambling score by Matthew Stafford, those were the only touchdowns on either side in what was ultimately an odd game. ... Because the Vikings essentially took the air out of the ball after building a first-half 13-3 lead that became 20-6 on the Sherels TD, it's going to be difficult to hold last week's box score against Kyle Rudolph (2-8), Harvin (3-22), or Christian Ponder. They're also facing a brutal Titans defense. Tennessee has surrendered a league-high 151 points in the season's first month. It's 20 more points than the next closest team, and puts the Titans on pace to shatter the NFL record of 533, which has stood for 31 years. So, yeah, even the most diligent chasers of last week's points need to shake off the Vikings' Week 4 box score and start Rudolph, Harvin, Ponder in a two-quarterback league or as a bye-week QB1, and Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have offensive firepower to light this group up.

Jerome Simpson was targeted five times in his first game off of suspension, securing four for 50 yards and drawing two P.I. flags. He's the one fantasy-viable Vikings skill-position player of which I'm wary because of how inconsistent Simpson has been throughout his career, both in real life and fantasy. Despite an enticing on-paper matchup, I wouldn't start him in Week 5. ... Peterson is running like an animal again, but hasn't scored a touchdown since the opener. That's going to change very soon. I'd encourage you to put a fair-ish but low-ball trade offer in for Peterson on Friday or Saturday, just to see if his owner bites. Fantasy leaguers get anxiety when their guys aren't scoring TDs, and Peterson hasn't had one in three weeks. I'd be shocked if that didn't change against Tennessee's 27th-ranked run defense. ... Where the Titans are really getting drilled is against the pass, though. Ranked 27th in pass defense, as well, they've surrendered a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio against and league-high 118.3 passer rating. ... Tennessee has allowed an incredible seven touchdowns to tight ends, and it's not a fluke. They have the worst safety play in the league. I've seen all four Titans games and feel like after every passing score they allow, FS Michael Griffin is either on the ground nearby or was just burnt in coverage. Get Rudolph fired up.

The final Week 4 stats might suggest Chris Johnson is getting back on track. I do not believe he is. Tennessee's line deserves credit for clearing running lanes against Houston, but Johnson still shied from contact and head-scratchingly padded his stats with the Titans trailing by 31 points in the fourth quarter. Tennessee went out of its way to give Johnson carries despite the huge deficit, clearly attempting to restore the confidence of their fallen star while trying to get the running game going. I think Johnson will go back in the tank this week against a Minnesota defense that does not allow holes to open. ... Although his box score (4-46-1) doesn't look shabby, Kendall Wright had the kind of Week 4 performance that could conceivably get a rookie benched. He dropped three balls and generated 46 yards on eight targets. Kenny Britt's (ankle) absence for another week should still keep Wright locked into the Titans' lineup. ... Nate Washington has 15 fewer targets than Wright this year. Wright is the better WR3 bet if you're choosing between the two.

Friday Update: The Vikings get back WLB Erin Henderson from a concussion this week, which will make life even tougher on Johnson. Pro Football Focus graded Henderson as the No. 4 overall run-defending 4-3 outside linebacker in the entire league last year, among 44 qualified players. Henderson's return would make me more leery of chasing Johnson's last-week fantasy points.

I think the Minnesota defense is worth a look as a spot-start play against the Titans. They can render Tennessee's offense one-dimensional, forcing Matt Hasselbeck to throw to try to move the chains. The Vikings are a top-seven team in sacks, and 37-year-old Hasselbeck's passes float through the air, making him interception prone. ... Battling a shoulder injury, Titans TE Jared Cook's snaps have been way down the past two games, playing just 34.1 percent of the downs. It remains to be seen whether he'll resume playing every down in this game or the next. On the season, Cook has one quality fantasy performance out of four. You should be able to do better.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Titans 17

Sunday Night Football

San Diego @ New Orleans

At 54 points, Chargers-Saints has the highest over-under of any Week 5 game. I believe it's also the highest over-under so far this year. It consistently pays to invest in shootouts, so trot out your studs and lean toward players in this game to break lineup-decision ties. ... Jamaal Charles. Cam Newton. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. Lacking any hint of a pass rush and defending the run at a league-worst clip, the Saints' defense has busted each of those players' early slumps and should get a Charger or two off the schneid this week. The first candidate I'd look at is Antonio Gates. ... Gates has been left for dead by fantasy land to the point that I was asked this week whether he's worth dropping for Kellen Davis. So I when I watched Chargers-Chiefs on Tuesday night, I keyed on Gates' movements on every pass play. And I thought he looked great. On the rare occasions he drew man coverage, Gates ran circles around SS Eric Berry. His box score (3-59) underwhelmed because Kansas City regularly double teamed Gates and bracketed him in scoring position. I saw him triple teamed on one red-zone series. On another, two defenders literally acted like blockers and refused to let Gates off the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs paid for this strategy by getting shelled on their home turf by the rest of San Diego's roster. Now is a great time to move on Gates, because you can get him for pennies on the dollar. By far, Gates is the best buy-low tight end in fantasy football.

The second Chargers slump that needs to be busted is that of Ryan Mathews. Surprise Week 4 tailback starter Jackie Battle may stay involved for the next game or two, but Mathews earned an increased workload by establishing ball security on 16 touches at Arrowhead while out-YPCing Battle 4.36 to 2.60. Mathews should be in lineups as an RB2 until he regains his full-time role, which will happen sooner rather than later. The matchup keeps Battle in the mix as a worthy flex. ... Although he's battled early-season inconsistency, Philip Rivers is a locked-and-loaded QB1 in this game. His protection is finally under control with LT Jared Gaither healthy, and the Saints rank 24th against the pass. Rivers will have a clean pocket Sunday. ... After two straight slow weeks, Malcom Floyd can get back on track in a date with scuffling Saints RCB Patrick Robinson, on whom Floyd has nearly seven inches and 30 pounds. Robert Meachem will get the more difficult on-field draw of the two Chargers wideouts, dealing with LCB Jabari Greer. In pass coverage alone, Greer is a respectable 40th among 100 qualifying corners in Pro Football Focus' ratings. Robinson is 76th. Meachem has also gone catch-less in two of his past three games.

After three slow weeks to open the year, Marques Colston busted his own slump last Sunday at Lambeau, securing nine passes for 153 yards and a touchdown. Look for him to stay hot versus San Diego, facing RCB Antoine Cason and slot CB Marcus Gilchrist in coverage. Cason was Dwayne Bowe's personal Week 4 whipping boy, while Colston has six inches and 30 pounds on Gilchrist. He'll be a borderline WR1 the rest of the way. ... Lance Moore's 37 targets rank second on the Saints -- just three behind Jimmy Graham -- so his absence due to a hamstring injury is significant. I think the best bet to soak up Moore's targets will be Graham, Colston, and Darren Sproles; all guys you should already have in your lineup. Moore was getting most of his pass looks over the middle and underneath. ... Deep threat Joseph Morgan caught an 80-yard TD bomb at Green Bay, shaking by Packers RCB Sam Shields. Morgan has only six targets on the season, however, and has not been a consistent part of New Orleans' pass offense. ... Despite his team's 0-4 start, Drew Brees is the No. 3 fantasy quarterback behind only RG3 and Matt Ryan. The Saints' problems this year are not related to the offense, which was Sean Payton's side of the ball. New Orleans is racking up losses because Steve Spagnuolo's defense can't stop anybody.

Graham is the most heavily targeted player in the NFL's third-ranked passing offense, so his stats are bound to improve. He's the No. 4 fantasy tight end and I still think he'll finish first. Fellow NFC South TE Tony Gonzalez gashed this same Chargers defense for 91 yards and a touchdown on nine catches two weeks back. ... Devery Henderson has been held to 11 yards or fewer in 3-of-4 games. Avoid. ... The notion of being "more motivated" is probably mythical above all else, but it's conceivable that Saints OC Pete Carmichael will draw up a few extra plays for Sproles in his first meeting with the Bolts since leaving San Diego after the 2010 season. Sproles is an every-week starter anyhow. ... Pierre Thomas has slowed down considerably since his 143-total yard Week 2 game. He has 79 yards combined in his last two and still hasn't scored a touchdown on the season. Thomas remains a better real-life than fantasy football player. ... Mark Ingram's fantasy value is scant. He's averaging just eight touches a game and played 13-of-80 snaps in Week 4. The Chargers rank sixth in the league in run defense, so this isn't an attractive matchup, either.

Score Prediction: Saints 34, Chargers 30

Monday Night Football

Houston @ NY Jets

Much public focus has been placed on the impact of Darrelle Revis' year-ending injury on the Jets' defense. The secondary is obviously much less competitive, but the front seven was always a problem. Rex Ryan's unit is getting rag-dolled up front. Ranked 28th against the run entering Week 4, New York proceeded to get pounded by San Francisco for 245 yards and three TDs on 44 carries (5.57 YPC). The Jets' run defense now ranks 31st. It's safe to say this is a mismatch game decidedly in the Texans' favor. Houston leads the NFL in rushing attempts, and coach Gary Kubiak isn't ruling out the possibility of giving Arian Foster 400 carries over the course of the year. Foster is the best fantasy running back play in the league this week. ... Perhaps the wear and tear of handling 28 touches a game will take its toll on Foster eventually, but he looked fast, quick, and elusive when I re-watched Texans-Titans on Tuesday. Foster was a few fluky turf-monster slips from a third straight 100-yard game. With an extra day of rest heading into this week's Monday nighter, expect Foster to pummel the lifeless Jets. ... Ben Tate's toe injury is another reason to expect a hefty workload from Foster. If Tate sits, Justin Forsett would fill the change-of-pace back role. Forsett isn't a realistic fantasy option, but he could be a sneaky candidate for 7-12 carries. Tate is shaping up as a game-time decision.

Friday Update: Jets NT Sione Pouha suffered a setback in his recovery from a preseason back injury and is not expected to play against the Texans. Pouha is New York's best interior run defender. Upgrade Foster's matchup, not that it needs to be.

Matt Schaub will never lead the NFL in pass attempts again now playing in the league's most run-heavy offense, but he's passing efficiently and productively enough to offer solid two-quarterback league value. He's also a viable bye-week QB1. Houston is a lock to generate ball movement on Monday, setting up scoring chances, and Schaub has been on a roll. He's completed 44 of his last 66 passes (66.7 percent) for 559 yards (8.47 YPA), and a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Texans could take the air out of the ball if they grab a big lead, but Schaub should have success whenever he drops back. ... Look for Antonio Cromartie in the Revis role, shadowing Andre Johnson outside. While Johnson's 24 targets through four games are underwhelming for an NFL No. 1 receiver, Johnson has made the most of them by securing 16 and averaging nearly 17 yards per catch. The Texans' play-action passing game is clicking right now. Johnson will get open deep if Cromartie bites. ... Owen Daniels quietly ranks eighth in fantasy tight end scoring, emerging as Schaub's clear-cut No. 2 pass catcher with a team-high 28 targets. Daniels reminds me a little bit of Miles Austin. He's producing at a locked-in fantasy starter's rate, but generating little to no fantasy buzz.

Friday Update: Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine confirmed Friday that Cromartie will be assigned to Johnson in this game. Cromartie has been New York's best player on defense this year. Should Cromartie give Johnson trouble down the sideline, Daniels could pad his team-leading target total down the seam. I think this is a really good matchup for Daniels, who is quietly making a lot of plays.

Every year, there is an NFL offense that we refer to as "fantasy wasteland." It's often been the Browns in recent seasons. Oakland. This year's fantasy wasteland is the New York Jets. Shonn Greene is the worst running back in the league still trotted out as a starter. With Santonio Holmes done for the year, there is no longer a chronic underachiever to tease our hopes, then catch two passes for 13 yards on Sunday and single-handedly fracture his team's locker room in the process. Mark Sanchez is going to be benched for Tim Tebow before the Week 9 bye. Dustin Keller can't shake his balky hamstring. Chaz Schilens is a starter in this offense. For real. On its last 34 possessions, the Jets' "offense" has scored one touchdown. ... Jeremy Kerley is the lone Jet worth Week 5 consideration as a desperation WR3 or flex play. Forced into the starting lineup due to Stephen Hill (hamstring) and Holmes' injuries, Kerley should be an every-snap player on a team that projects to be playing from behind on Monday night. Kerley is a weapon with the football in his hands, able to make guys miss. He should eat up Texans LCB Kareem Jackson's off-coverage cushion and is a candidate for 6-8 receptions. ... Instead of wasting your time with more Jets talk, here is J.J. Watt's stat line over his past eight games, including January's playoffs: 40 tackles (33 solo), 12 sacks, 9 batted passes, 17 quarterback hits, 16 tackles for loss, and an interception returned for a touchdown. He is an unblockable beast. Good luck, Brandon Moore.