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Israel Takes Out Top Hamas Commander As Rockets Fly From Gaza; Oil Rises

Palestinians extinguish fire from the car of Jabari, head of the military wing of the Hamas movement, the Ezzedin Qassam Brigades, after it was hit by an Israeli air strike in Gaza City - Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife

Israel launched the biggest military offensive against Palestine in four years on Wednesday, killing the head of Hamas’ military wing and hitting approximately 20 sites across Gaza City. Operation Pillar of Defense, as Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has dubbed it, was launched after an uptick of rocket attacks from Gaza over the past few weeks, according to vice president of analysis at geopolitical and defense intelligence firm Stratfor. While IDF was live-blogging its military operation and Hamas vowed revenge, oil prices ticked up, but aren’t expected to surge unless the hostilities escalate dramatically.

The death of Ahmed Jabari at the hands of a precise Israeli air strike was captured and distributed for everyone to see. IDF’s own media-savvy communications department put the video up on YouTube, which shows how Jabari’s vehicle is taken out by a missile (watch it below). Jabari, head of Hamas’ military wing, had it coming, according to Scott Stewart, VP of analysis for Stratfor. “Jabari was at the top of [IDF’s] list, he was involved in all sorts of things going way back, from suicide bombings to rocket attacks,” explained Stewart.

Israel’s offensive is the consequence of increased missile activity from launching sites throughout Gaza targeting urban areas across the border, according to Stewart. “It is important to look at this situation as not just today’s events, but over the past few weeks or month, where rocket attacks from Gaza increased substantially,” said Stewart.

Stratfor is still working to figure out both why the past few weeks have seen the highest rate of rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel, and why IDF chose to attack on Wednesday, a day after an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire was announced. Operation Pillar of Defense has seen IDF launch a coordinated campaign that not only targeted high-ranking officials, but also long-range missile sites and other strategic targets across Gaza. A few weeks ago, Israeli pilots destroyed a munitions factory in Sudan that, according to Stratfor, was backed by Iran and supplied weapons to armed groups in Gaza.

From a military perspective, one question that must be answered is whether Israel will move its ground troops in. Startfor cites reports suggesting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized the mobilization of ground troops toward the border with Gaza, which Stewart believes could be used to hit any remaining targets, whether they are people, materials, or rockets.

In terms of global markets, Operation Pillar of Defense caused a relatively small knee-jerk reaction in the price of oil, but shouldn’t move beyond that, according to Stewart. Brent moved up 1.7% to $110.05 per barrel on Wednesday, while WTI contracts ticked up 1.2% to $86.42.

Unless the situation escalates and begins to affect countries beyond Israel and Palestine, then market effects should be contained. Currently, there is no indication that the violence will escalate, Stewart noted, but geopolitical events have a tendency to change very quickly. Shares in major oil producers like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips fell along with the broader market.

Egypt will be a major player to watch in the continuation of this conflict. Islamist President Mohammed Morsi recalled Egypt’s ambassador to Israel to protest the attacks, APreported. Indeed, Hamas was formed from the Egyptian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, putting pressure on Morsi from both sides: pushed domestically to help Palestine and internationally to court peaceful relations with Israel.

It is still too early to fully explain the situation, Stewart noted, as it’s still not clear whether Hamas was directly responsible for the attacks, as opposed to Palestinian jihadists or other organizations active in the region; even Israel’s own actions are difficult to measure at the time. If the conflict were to escalate, though, it has the potential to drag in other Arab nations and dramatically change the scale of the situation.

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seems like youTube is technological arm of Muslim Brotherhood OR Hamas, as video is unavailable. Before anyone defend Youtube for policies regarding violent material, it allows numerous other Adult contents on signing in.

The video isn’t working, and I completely disagree with characterizing YouTube as the arm of the Brotherhood or Hamas, that’s just ridiculous. Israel Defense Force has opened a tumblr account, though, with all their latest multimedia content (http://idfonline.tumblr.com/)