2016-10-10

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia didn't use their bye week to come out strong, and lost, along with Denver, leaving Minnesota the last remaining unbeaten team. I bet they didn't think they'd get to 5-11 when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt toward the end of the preseason. They might have even thought things got even worse when they traded for Sam Bradford. But here they are, atop the league. There's still plenty of time left, of course, and no one's even clinched a playoff spot. Speaking of that, while writing this I realized I neglected to track the milestones of percentage chances of making the playoffs. Typically I start tracking at 80%, then 90%, 99%, 99.9%, and so on as long as teams keep reaching more 9s without actually clinching. I've gone back and added those starting at the appropriate posts for each mark.

TEAM

Record

Strength

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

MIN

5-0

0.616

82.06

94.40

83.13

47.90

26.85

15.09

PHI

3-1

0.605

44.71

68.97

51.13

28.17

15.18

8.36

NE

4-1

0.589

63.09

84.15

66.24

36.77

20.08

10.38

PIT

4-1

0.584

71.47

85.98

69.00

38.07

20.50

10.49

DEN

4-1

0.580

54.62

80.55

63.37

34.61

18.34

9.31

DAL

4-1

0.575

43.00

72.49

51.86

26.70

13.48

7.01

BUF

3-2

0.565

34.31

61.30

41.39

21.38

11.05

5.45

SEA

3-1

0.564

55.68

65.65

44.36

22.06

10.83

5.52

ATL

4-1

0.550

78.12

82.39

55.93

27.03

12.83

6.36

ARI

2-3

0.548

22.03

35.00

20.64

9.77

4.65

2.30

GB

3-1

0.530

14.59

53.89

31.31

14.19

6.56

3.12

SD

1-4

0.516

2.42

9.94

5.35

2.45

1.14

0.50

BAL

3-2

0.515

23.51

47.54

28.87

13.36

6.19

2.75

OAK

4-1

0.508

33.43

67.46

45.03

20.54

9.26

4.04

DET

2-3

0.489

2.81

15.77

7.76

3.19

1.34

0.58

WAS

3-2

0.486

8.95

26.68

14.13

5.86

2.44

1.05

CAR

1-3

0.485

8.98

15.51

7.53

3.06

1.27

0.55

IND

2-3

0.482

23.39

28.02

14.11

5.94

2.52

1.03

KC

2-2

0.481

9.53

25.24

13.76

5.86

2.50

1.03

TEN

2-3

0.478

23.30

28.24

14.08

5.89

2.48

1.01

NO

1-3

0.476

7.86

13.01

6.21

2.47

1.00

0.42

CIN

2-3

0.459

4.78

14.20

6.96

2.81

1.15

0.45

NYG

2-3

0.456

3.35

10.26

4.77

1.83

0.71

0.29

JAC

1-3

0.451

14.44

16.62

7.57

2.95

1.16

0.44

SF

1-4

0.448

2.80

4.36

1.86

0.68

0.26

0.10

HOU

3-2

0.447

38.87

43.62

21.21

8.22

3.20

1.21

LA

3-2

0.443

19.49

31.25

15.14

5.60

2.08

0.81

MIA

1-4

0.434

1.13

3.21

1.43

0.55

0.21

0.08

TB

1-3

0.420

5.03

7.59

3.14

1.09

0.38

0.14

NYJ

1-4

0.418

1.48

3.32

1.40

0.51

0.19

0.07

CHI

1-4

0.417

0.54

2.80

1.12

0.38

0.14

0.05

CLE

0-5

0.397

0.24

0.62

0.24

0.08

0.03

0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)