Comments for Hurling People Nowhttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com
It's what we do.Sun, 24 Sep 2017 17:41:03 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/Comment on Introducing Player Approximate Value (PAV) by Ranking a player’s real worth – the PAV system bringing advanced analytics to the AFL – Australia News & Buzzhttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/introducing-player-approximate-value-pav/comment-page-1/#comment-706
Sun, 24 Sep 2017 17:41:03 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=21810#comment-706[…] supporter Sean Lawson are the people behind AFL stats blog Hurling People Now, which this month published a ratings system called the Player Approximate Value – PAV for […]

]]>Comment on Introducing Player Approximate Value (PAV) by HPN Finals Preview – Can The Giants Clip The Crows’ Wings? | Hurling People Nowhttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/introducing-player-approximate-value-pav/comment-page-1/#comment-667
Thu, 07 Sep 2017 06:05:01 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=21810#comment-667[…] for GWS is the absence of Rory Sloane, one of the league’s elite midfielders. According to PAV, our new player value system, Sloane had the third highest MidPAV per game of any player in the league this year – a massive […]

]]>Comment on The 2017 PAV All Australian Team by graemehttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/09/02/the-2017-pav-all-australian-team/comment-page-1/#comment-666
Thu, 07 Sep 2017 03:30:38 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=22161#comment-666I am intrigued by the composition of the top 40 players by PAV – six ruckmen yet there is no specific ruck category. Further, they tend to exhibit an all round game; if you did not know their notional afl position you might mistake them for midfielders. But, perhaps that is the point. Few on the list (Daniher and Rance perhaps) appear to be “key” position players. Is specialisation a trait among afl players that is no longer in vogue?

]]>Comment on McGrath may not have been the most valuable Rising Star by Editorhttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/09/01/mcgrath-may-not-have-been-the-most-valuable-rising-star/comment-page-1/#comment-651
Mon, 04 Sep 2017 03:00:30 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=22067#comment-651Thanks for the comment and reading the piece. Having watched a fair bit of McGrath this year, I’d consider him to be less of a “shutdown” defender, and more of a ball user of half back. I only watched him in person once this year (against GWS), but he seemed to often float off his matchup loose, and rotated around the defensive unit. The job on Betts was notable because it was a little bit of an exception to his standard play – running off half-back a lot of the time. For their first matchup, I believe McGrath spent more time on Riley Knight than any other Crow – not a priority to shut down.

When we refer to shutdown defenders, we generally talk about players whose main responsibilities are to function in a way that dissuades the opposition from even kicking in their direction, denying the ability to accumulate traditional counting stats. Additionally, a pure shutdown defender doesn’t get given the responsibility to create attacking opportunities on the rebound.

For smalls currently in the AFL, Nick Smith and Neville Jetta probably fit this mould the most, with talented attacking options outside of them taking the creative opportunities presented to their side. McGrath doesn’t really fit this categorisation, as he gets a lot of his own ball and racks up a lot of disposals. For tall defenders, guys like Jake Lever, Heath Grundy, David Astbury and Oscar McDonald are current examples of the taller shutdown defender – a role that is becoming increasingly rare as players are asked to do more to contribute in order to keep their spots in the best 22. For a Rising Star eligible player this year, Lewis Melican has the profile of a shutdown defender much more than McGrath.

However, as indicated in the introduction piece to PAV, the system can actually identify shutdown defenders pretty well, even if it slightly underrepresents their impact. According to PAV, McGrath is not considered a shutdown defender. Even with Darren Glass, the most extreme example encountered whilst testing PAV, the system considered him to be an elite defender, with no value provided elsewhere around the ground. In contrast, McGrath provided more than double the value to the other two areas (MidPAV and OffPAV) than any year of Glass’s career. McGrath likely projects as either an outside/inside midfielder or rebounding half back long term – a fair stretch from the players mentioned above.

All player value methods which base their value system around positive effort will inherently run into this issue, but PAV controls for this somewhat by having a team’s total defensive value considered by the method. If anything, PAV overvalues defenders compared to most traditional value systems (think Brownlow Medal votes, SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy). It is also worth noting that the AFL Player Ratings had McGrath similarly placed in the AFL regarding Rising Star eligible players – a fair way behind Powell-Pepper and Burton in the grand scheme of things. A positional adjusted +/- system may go some way to addressing this blind spot, but no publically available data exists to test this hypothesis.

Personally, I think McGrath will be a very good player long term, but I don’t think his current role is best suited to his abilities. On a subjective judgement, I would have had him around 5th to 10th of Rising Star candidates – behind the SPP, Burton, Hipwood and Curnow group.

]]>Comment on McGrath may not have been the most valuable Rising Star by Sydkhttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/09/01/mcgrath-may-not-have-been-the-most-valuable-rising-star/comment-page-1/#comment-649
Mon, 04 Sep 2017 01:55:20 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=22067#comment-649In the PAV introduction post, you referenced Darren Glass as a pure shutdown defender who appears underrated at first glance. With this in mind and the commentary around McGrath’s shut down roles on Eddie Betts in Round 21 for example, do you think PAV has issues with negating players?

]]>Comment on The 2017 season is wide open, if you are in the right tier of the league by Travis Chttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/07/28/the-2017-season-is-wide-open-if-you-are-in-the-right-tier-of-the-league/comment-page-1/#comment-570
Wed, 02 Aug 2017 22:12:30 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=21138#comment-570As a one-eyed Power supporter, I want to believe in an all-SA Grand Final (and may believe more depending on how much this weekend’s Showdown delivers). But at this stage, I am more leaning towards a GWS-Geelong battle for the premiership (thinking that the Giants will pull it all together over August and then September).

]]>Comment on Can Sydney and Essendon’s form upheaval drag them into the finals? by Matthttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/06/22/can-sydney-and-essendons-form-upheaval-drag-them-into-the-finals/comment-page-1/#comment-521
Fri, 23 Jun 2017 03:47:31 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=20710#comment-521Langford in for the struggling Myers helps the Bomber’s midfield strength, but not having Hooker up forward might hurt their offensive efficiency. McKernan is no slouch, but he can’t take a contested mark the way Hooker can.

]]>Comment on Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? by Anatomy of an upset – how do AFL teams overcome the odds to spring a big win? – Squigglehttps://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/06/15/anatomy-of-an-upset-how-do-afl-teams-overcome-the-odds-to-spring-a-big-win/comment-page-1/#comment-515
Thu, 22 Jun 2017 06:16:57 +0000http://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/?p=20466#comment-515[…] Hurling People Now counts the ways in which teams can pull off an upset and decides there are four: […]