U.S. must not fail Egypt

By Anthony H. Cordesman, Special to CNN

Updated 4:01 PM ET, Fri July 5, 2013

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Unrest in Egypt – A bus passes a destroyed pickup truck with loudspeakers that was used by supporters of ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy on Friday, August 2. The supporters and security forces clashed in Sixth of October City in Giza, south of Cairo, after the government ordered their protest camps be broken up. Look at the latest violence in Egypt.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters walk past makeshift roadblocks at Rabaa al-Adawiya Square in Cairo on Saturday, August 3. Security forces set up the roadblocks outside the square, allowing people to leave but not enter, as they attempt to break up camps set up during ongoing protests over Morsy's ouster.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters run among the smoke and fire resulting from clashes with security forces in Sixth of October City in Giza on August 2. The military ousted Morsy, Egypt's first democratically elected president, in early July after days of mass demonstrations. Dozens of Morsy backers angry at Egypt's military-backed government have died in weekend violence in the volatile nation's capital. See photos of protests that have engulfed the country.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptian riot police block the entrance to Sixth of October City in Giza on August 2 following clashes with Morsy supporters.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters in red helmets march during a protest against the government in Cairo on August 2. Pro-Morsy marches began after Friday prayers, when supporters made their way back to their camp outside the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters march in a demonstration against the Egyptian government in Cairo on August 2.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of Egypt's deposed President Mohammed Morsy gather for prayers at Nasr City, where protesters have installed a camp and hold daily rallies, in Cairo, on Sunday, July 28.

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Unrest in Egypt – A boy wears a tear gas mask as supporters of Egypt's ousted President Mohammed Morsy pray at the camp set up by supporters in the Nasr City area of Cairo on July 28.

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Unrest in Egypt – Doctors treat an injured supporter of deposed Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy during clashes with security forces in Cairo on Saturday, July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – A wounded Morsy supporter lies on the floor of a field hospital in Cairo on July 27. Thousands of Morsy supporters gathered Saturday in the Nasr City neighborhood despite dozens of deaths the night before and veiled threats from the military.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of Morsy protest outside a field hospital in Cairo where the bodies of slain Morsy supporters have been brought July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – The body of a Muslim Brotherhood protester, reportedly shot dead after violence erupted the night before, is moved as mourners watch inside a field hospital in Cairo on July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – Two men mourn Morsy supporters who were killed in overnight clashes with security forces, in Cairo, on July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – A medic pauses at a field hospital in Cairo on July 27 after tending to the bodies of Morsy supporters reportedly killed in fighting.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of Morsy carry an injured man to a field hospital amid clashes with security forces in Cairo on July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – Doctors treat a Morsy supporter injured during clashes with security forces in Cairo on July 27.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of Morsy rally in Giza, on Friday, July 26.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of the Egyptian military rally at Tahrir Square in Cairo on Friday, July 26.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy opponents rally in Cairo on July 26.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy opponents watch a demonstration from a rooftop near Tahrir Square in Cairo on July 26.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptian soldiers stand guard atop an armored vehicle on a bridge leading to Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday, July 26.

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Unrest in Egypt – A Morsy advocate builds a giant portrait of the deposed president Thursday, July 25, while other supporters hold a sit-in outside a Cairo mosque. The military has detained Morsy while an interim government takes shape.

Unrest in Egypt – A man with a pistol and other Morsy opponents detain a suspected Morsy supporter who was wounded during clashes in Cairo on Monday, July 22. Supporters and opponents clashed near the city's Tahrir Square.

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Unrest in Egypt – Men evacuate an injured opponent of Morsy during clashes with his supporters in Cairo on July 22.

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Unrest in Egypt – A man fires a gun during clashes between opponents and supporters of Morsy in Cairo on July 22.

Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters run from tear gas in Cairo on July 15.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptians in Cairo's Tahrir Square pray before breaking their fast on the third day of Ramadan, the sacred holy month for Muslims, on Friday, July 12.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of the deposed Morsy rally in Nasr City, Egypt, a suburb of Cairo, on Monday, July 8.

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Unrest in Egypt – A man reacts after seeing the body of a family member at the Liltaqmeen al-Sahy Hospital in Cairo, allegedly killed during a sit-in supporting Morsy in front of the Republican Guard headquarters on July 8.

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Unrest in Egypt – Injured men receive medical attention after clashes between supporters of Morsy and security forces in Cairo on July 8.

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Unrest in Egypt – Opponents of Mohamed Morsy gather at Tahrir Square during a protest in Cairo on Sunday, July 7.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters of Morsy pray next to the headquarters of the Republican Guards in Cairo on Saturday, July 6, during the funeral of seven people killed during clashes.

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Unrest in Egypt – People carry coffins on July 6 of two Morsy opponents who were killed during clashes in Cairo.

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Unrest in Egypt – A Morsy supporter joins protests near the University of Cairo in Giza on July 6.

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Unrest in Egypt – Supporters and opponents of Morsy clash in Cairo on Friday, July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – A protester is attended to in Cairo's Tahrir Square during fighting between the pro- and anti-Morsy crowds on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – An Egyptian military helicopter hovers over supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and deposed President Mohamed Morsy in Cairo on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters hold up their bloodstained hands after Egypt's armed forces opened fire on rally in front of the Republican Guard headquarters in Cairo on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters carry a man who was shot during clashes next to the Republican Guard headquarters in Cairo on July 5. State broadcaster Nile TV said a number of those backing the deposed leader were wounded as they tried to storm the headquarters, where Morsy reportedly was being held.

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Unrest in Egypt – A wounded man is helped following the gun battle outside the headquarters of the Republican Guard on July 5.

Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters react to an explosion during clashes with police officers on July 5 outside Cairo University in Giza.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptian Army soldiers stand guard at the Cairo headquarters of the Republican Guard on July 5 as an Apache attack helicopter flies overhead.

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Unrest in Egypt – Morsy supporters pray near the University of Cairo in Giza on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – A man prays on July 5 before the protest near the University of Cairo.

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Unrest in Egypt – Protesters take cover from tear gas during clashes outside the headquarters of the Republican Guard in Cairo on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – A military helicopter flies by Egypt's Presidential Palace in Cairo on July 5.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptians watch fireworks in Tahrir Square on Thursday, July 4, the day after Morsy's ouster.

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Unrest in Egypt – People dance and cheer in the streets of Cairo on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – A Morsy supporter holds a poster of the deposed president during a July 4 rally in Nasr City.

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Unrest in Egypt – A massive crowd gathers in Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptians cheer and wave national flags as airplanes fly above Tahrir Square on July 4, leaving a trail of smoke in the colors of the national flag.

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Unrest in Egypt – A woman uses a mobile phone to record the July 4 celebrations in Tahrir Square.

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Unrest in Egypt – An opposition protester chants slogans against Morsy near Cairo University, where Muslim Brotherhood supporters gathered on July 4 to show support for the ousted president.

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Unrest in Egypt – A man holds a newspaper near Mesaha Square in Cairo on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – Dejected Morsy supporters attend a rally in Nasr City on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – A Morsy supporter shows his bloodied shirt during a July 4 rally near the University of Cairo.

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Unrest in Egypt – A young Egyptian boy shoots off fireworks during celebrations in Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – People walk by a pile of Egyptian flags for sale in Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – Crowds throng Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – Egyptian soldiers deploy near Cairo University on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – People dance and cheer at Tahrir Square in Cairo on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – Adly Mansour, center, stands after delivering a speech during his swearing-in ceremony as Egypt's interim president in the Supreme Constitutional Court in Cairo on July 4. Mansour has served as the head of the country's Supreme Constitutional Court.

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Unrest in Egypt – Armored vehicles with the Egyptian army sit at a checkpoint in the Cairo district of Nasr City on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – A Morsy supporter reacts as a military helicopter flies over during a July 4 rally in Nasr City.

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Unrest in Egypt – A boy with face paint the color of the Egyptian flag pauses on July 4 in Tahrir Square.

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Unrest in Egypt – A pedestrian shakes hands with a member of the military at a roadblock in Giza.

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Unrest in Egypt – Security personnel rest on July 4 in Tahrir Square.

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Unrest in Egypt – A man walks to Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – A family sleeps on a bridge near Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – A member of the Egyptian military redirects traffic on July 4 at a roadblock in Giza.

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Unrest in Egypt – Bread is sold near Tahrir Square on July 4.

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Unrest in Egypt – An Egyptian military member guards a roadblock in Giza on July 4.

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Story highlights

Cordesman: U.S. must focus not on details of Morsy ouster but on Egypt's ongoing crisis

He says Mubarak corrupt, ineffective, but in past 2 years, nation in economic collapse

He says U.S. most focus on reality, work with World Bank, allies to raid Egypt economy

As it measures its response to the recent events on Egypt, the U.S. needs to be extremely careful about focusing on the definition of "coup" and the legitimacy -- or non-legitimacy -- of Mohamed Morsy's election, the draft constitution, and the now-ousted Egyptian president's efforts to give himself additional powers. It needs to be equally careful about focusing on the protests that helped drive him from power, and the legitimacy of political Islam.

If the U.S. focuses on whether or not a coup took place, it will be ignoring the fact that Egypt is a key center of the Middle East and that U.S. policy will be judged by its success in meeting the needs of Egypt's people. Egypt is a nation whose problems go far deeper than the crisis that began January 2011.

As the Arab Human Development report made clear in 2009, former President Hosni Mubarak's rule had become steadily more ineffective, corrupt, and incapable of meeting the needs of Egypt's people long before 2011. He had been in power since October 1981, but the social and economic progress he made in his first decade in power had faded into a static, incompetent regime by 2005, and one that became steadily more corrupt and unable to meet the needs of Egypt's young and growing population.

Anthony H. Cordesman

The last two years have made the situation far worse in ways that affect every aspect of day-to-day life. Mubarak's fall tore down a fragile regime that mixed a state-driven economy with crony capitalism. It was a country with a bureaucracy that could barely function without a strong leader, one with no opposition parties that had real political experience or capability to govern, and whose "reformers" were (and still are) protesters with no capability to make real reforms.

The end result is that Egypt is not an abstract exercise in political theory. It is a nation of more than 85 million people, at least 25% of whom live in dire poverty, and where unemployment and underemployment can no longer be accurately estimated but have reached the crisis level. It is a nation with over 50% of its population under 25 years of age, and 31% under 14, but with an education system in breakdown and much of the infrastructure frozen or losing capacity.

Egypt's foreign reserves have dropped by more than 50% and it faces a crisis in getting loans from the International Monetary Fund. It is a nation where foreign investment has critically declined, tourist revenue has dropped sharply, where many small businesses have already collapsed, and many middle class Egyptians have lost their jobs and savings. Fuel and electric power are lacking, food subsidies are uncertain and sometimes failing, the currency is increasingly unstable, and crime has skyrocketed.

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U.S. policy must focus on these realities, and not just politics. The U.S., in partnership with its allies, the World Bank and other international aid agencies institutions needs to support immediate Egyptian efforts to salvage the economy and bring economic reform. It needs to focus on bringing relief and stability. No Egyptian government can succeed -- democratic or not -- that cannot meet the needs of the Egyptian people. Real political legitimacy is not determined by how a government is chosen, but by how well it can meet the needs of its people.

As for politics, the U.S. needs to work with other states to push Egypt's military to support the reforms that failed between early 2011 and Morsy's fall. This means a broad-based effort to agree on a constitution, the creation of real political parties, and help for protesters learning how to organize politically and focus on practical governance and reform. It means taking enough time for elections to be open, to include Islamic and more secular parties, and focusing on the same kind of mixed national government and consensus politics that seem to have emerged in Tunisia.

One test of a solution to a problem is that it does not make things even worse. Threatening Egypt's military, rigidly cutting off aid because of a "coup" under conditions where there is no credible replacement government, and standing aside as Egypt drifts towards internal collapse is not a strategy.

Letting today's celebration of Morsy's fall turn into civil conflict and political paralysis will be a moral and ethical failure on the part of the Obama administration and the Congress, one that will do the Egyptian people vast harm, cripple a key ally, and leave a legacy of lasting anger in both Egypt and the region.