Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Super Bowl props for Indianapolis (-5.5) and New Orleans are the hottest ticket in town this week and online sportsbooks are expanding the selection every day. Bettors are now being tempted with player props, team vs. team comparisons and soon there will even be matchup props against the other sporting events going on game day.

In our live sports betting TV show every day at www.BetRepublic.com, we talked about the recent news of Dwight Freeney’s injury. While it has had no impact so far on the line of 5.5 to 6 points, the Over-Under of 56.5 – already the highest Super Bowl total bookmakers have ever released – continues to rise. The number oddsmakers originally set was 55 and as we discussed on our show, we expect it could go as high as 57.5 by kickoff.

When two offenses like this hook-up it’s easy to see why people are expecting a high scoring affair. New Orleans led the NFL in scoring this season with 510 points and in two playoff victories we have seen the final score hit 59 points both times. The Colts, meanwhile, were on the verge of a perfect season before Coach Jim Caldwell sat his starters in Week 16 and even the best defensive units have had no answer for Peyton Manning’s attack.

This game marks the first Super Bowl since 1994 (Dallas vs. Buffalo) where the two No. 1 seeds from their respective Conferences met in the final and we’ve broken down the matchups in each department to see which side has the upper hand.

When the Colts have the ball

Look for Manning to go after his top two targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, before checking down to youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. New Orleans’ pass rush was weakened when DE Charles Grant went down but when Will Smith gets in Manning’s face it will serve as a major distraction. The ball-hawking Saints secondary is always a threat to make plays in the back field.

RB Joseph Addai will get his share of touches and still has the ability to break a play wide open. The New York Jets learned all too well what happens when a team neglects the run against Indy so the Saints will have to give some respect.

When the Saints have the ball

Drew Brees heads up a deep scoring threat matched by a solid running game that combines speed, quickness and power. Running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush carried the ball 21 times for 69 yards vs. a massive Viking D-line wall and will no doubt find success against the average Colts front seven.

Indy was stable against a vanilla Jets passing game but are going to be challenged keeping pace with the speedy trio of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem. Freeney’s injury, listed as a severe ankle sprain, also gives a serious blow to the Colts pass rush and a lot of bettors that were on the fence for making Super Bowl picks are waiting to hear more about his status. It’s been reported that Freeney may be forced to miss the game completely although HC Caldwell is optimistic, saying Freeney is a warrior that heels faster than most.

Special Teams

Bush gets a lot of press for his threat as a punt return man but yard-for-yard, kickoff returns between Indy’s Chad Simpson and Saints Courtney Roby are fairly equal and both scored just one TD during the regular season. Saints K Garrett is young and has a booming leg while Matt Stover – yes, the same one that kicked for the old Cleveland Browns – has more experience.

Intangibles

Indianapolis was nearly perfect all year but in the second half of the season has not seen the calibre of competition that this Saints offense consistently brings to the table. New Orleans will not give the ball away via turnover but also can’t expect the kind of fortune they had against the Vikings.

Check your online sportsbook for updates on prop selection and line moves.

Be sure to visit www.BetRepublic.com for our Super Bowl coverage on out live TV show, our blogs, and member picks.

2 comments:

Looking to see a great season ahead of us. Last year it was a injury prone year in NFL. I also heard about a huge amount of loss last year. Hope to see a good year at least for the football handicappers.