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Cerrone vs. Stephens

Lightweights

The Matchup: Cerrone needed one more victory to
complete a 5-0 UFC run in 2011, but he ran into a buzzsaw named
Nate
Diaz at UFC 141. One has to wonder if the fatigue of such a
busy year caught up to the “Cowboy,” because he appeared to lack
his usual movement and energy while eating countless punches to the
head and body from Diaz.

Where Diaz peppers his opponents to death with combinations,
Stephens prefers to throw each punch like it is his last. While
that has worked well in the sense that 14 of “Lil’ Heathen’s” 20
career victories have come by knockout, it also leaves him wide
open for counters when his kill shots connect with nothing but air.
The Victory MMA product likes to use an outside leg kick and a left
hook to find his range, but his numbing overhand right would be so
much more effective if he just implemented a few more jabs into his
arsenal.

That plays into the hands of Cerrone, who is comfortable in the
pocket but tends to strike with more volume than his opponent. The
Colorado native’s kickboxing background often shines through with
his toolbox of kicks, as he is capable of doing damage no matter
whether he goes high or low with his attacks. The Jackson’s Mixed
Martial Arts product sometimes does not get going until he gets hit
a few times, but he has gradually improved on coming out the gate
quicker, the Diaz fight notwithstanding.

Neither Cerrone nor Stephens have been knocked out in their
professional careers, making a prolonged firefight all the more
likely. Cerrone has the more diverse standup game, but Stephens’
aggression and physical style can counteract that if he is able to
close the distance and outmuscle his foe in tie-ups. The wrestling
of “Cowboy” has improved over recent fights, however, so it is not
a foregone conclusion that Stephens will be able to get the fight
to the mat. Stephens’ punching power translates nicely into
explosive ground-and-pound, but he must be wary when Cerrone is on
his back -- the former WEC standout has earned the majority of his
professional wins by submission.

The Pick: On the feet, Cerrone will dictate the
range and use superior movement to land his usual barrage of
strikes to keep Stephens off balance. At some point, the Iowan will
get overanxious in his pursuit of the finish, allowing Cerrone to
win the fight with a submission in round three.