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Some Wednesday MLB Helpful Information

MLB Top 3: Best home/away total bets in baseball
By JASON LOGAN

Watching the winds at Wrigley Field is always on top of a baseball bettor’s daily to-do list. And so far this season, those Windy City gusts have helped total bettors go 14-10 over/under when capping the Chicago Cubs’ home stands.

That may not seem like a huge windfall for over backers, until you compare it to the Cubs’ over/under count on the road. Chicago is 6-13 over/under away from the north side, heading into Tuesday’s game at Pittsburgh. The Cubbies play over 58 percent of the time at home but just 32 percent on the road.

Chicago isn’t the only club with decisively different over/under counts at home and away. Here are three other MLB teams presenting value to total bettors depending on the scenery:

Atlanta Braves (8-10 O/U home, 16-9-1 O/U away)

The Braves pitching has defended the House That Ted Built with an MLB best 2.43 ERA at home while posting a 4.06 ERA on the road – a difference of 1.63 runs. Atlanta is 1-3 over/under to start its current six-game home stand.

Pittsburgh Pirates (7-16-1 O/U home, 13-7 O/U away)

Bucs’ ace A.J. Burnett is a different man inside PNC Park. Last season, he went 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA at home, where the Pirates finished 5-12 over/under in his 17 starts. Burnett is 2-3 with a 2.51 ERA in seven home starts in 2013. Pittsburgh is 1-6 over/under in those home appearances.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-8-1 O/U home, 7-15 O/U away)

Outside of Wrigley Field, Citizens Bank Park is perhaps the ultimate example of how much ballparks can make a difference. The Phillies’ crumbling lineup is having a tough time scoring, ranked 27th in runs per game, averaging four runs at home compared to just 2.95 on the road. Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best hitters park in the majors this season (behind Wrigley).

Hot pitchers
-- Reds won Latos' last three road starts (2-0, 2.33). Harvey is 1-1, 1.57 in his last four outings.
-- Ryu is 2-1, 2.93 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 3-1, 1.64 in his last five starts. de la Rosa is 3-0, 2.50 in last three.
-- GGonzalez is 1-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Liriano is 2-0, 1.59 in two starts this season.
-- Lee is 2-0, 1.64 in his last three starts.

-- Parker is 1-0, 2.70 in his last couple starts.
-- Kuroda is 3-1, 1.21 in his last four starts.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 1.90 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 1-2, 2.20 in his last six starts.
-- Buchholz is 6-0, 1.78 in nine starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Peralta is 1-3, 8.44 in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-2, 7.64 in his last three starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-5, 4.81 in his last six starts.
-- Slowey is 0-2, 12.91 in his last couple starts.
-- Lefty Lyons is 2-1, 4.47 in eight AAA starts (56 hits allowed in 46.1 IP). BSmith is 0-1, 15.64 in two starts this season.

-- Worley is 1-2, 5.88 in his last five starts. Maholm is 2-4, 6.68 in his last six .

-- Wolf was 1-1, 1.85 in six AAA starts (27 hits allowed in 34 IP).
-- Buehrle is 0-3, 6.68 in his last five starts. Hellickson has a 7.72 RA in his last five starts.
-- Hammel is 1-1, 10.43 in his last three starts.
-- Verlander is 0-2, 14.09 in his last couple starts.
-- Wilson is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts. Maurer is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three outings.
-- Lyles is 1-1, 7.11 in four starts this season.
-- Santiago is 0-1, 8.68 in his last couple starts.

Totals
-- Eight of last eleven Cub games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Arizona games.
-- Five of last seven San Diego games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve San Francisco games.

-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Atlanta games.

-- Over is 19-4 in last twenty-three Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Bronx games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Cleveland games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Oakland games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Houston home games went over total.
-- Eight of last twelve Boston road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Reds won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Phillies won six of their last nine games.
-- Colorado won four of its last five games. Diamondbacks won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last thirteen games. San Diego won three of its last four games.
-- Giants won last five home games, allowing six runs.

-- Braves won their last six home games, scoring 35 runs.

-- Cleveland won 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Tampa Bay won ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Bronx won ten of its last fourteen games.
-- Oakland won its last five games, allowing seven runs. Rangers won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- White Sox won six of their last eight games. Boston won five of its last seven games.
-- Angels won their last three games, scoring 30 runs.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Marlins lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Brewers lost ten of their last thirteen games. Dodgers lost seven of their last eight away games.
-- Washington lost eight of its last eleven games.

-- Twins lost their last six games, allowing 38 runs.
-- Blue Jays lost three of their last four games.
-- Mariners are 7-17 in their last 24 road games.
-- Baltimore lost six of its last seven games.
-- Tigers lost four of their last six games.
-- Royals lost 12 of their last 16 games. Astros lost 11 of their last 14.

Umpires
-- Cin-NY-- 11 of last 15 Guccione games went over total.
-- Phil-Mia-- Favorites won five of last six Fletcher games.
-- LA-Mil-- Four of last five Gonzalez games went over total.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Seven of last nine Winters games went over total.
-- Az-Col-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Demuth games.
-- Wsh-SF-- Five of last six Darling games went over the total.
-- StL-SD-- Six of last eight Joyce games stayed under the total.

-- Min-Atl-- Under is 23-6-1 in last thirty Culbreth games.

-- TB-Tor-- Visiting team won last six Bucknor games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of last seven Schrieber games stayed under.
-- A's-Tex-- Seven of last eight LBarrett games went over.
-- Det-Clev-- Seven of last ten Foster games stayed under.
-- KC-Hst-- Home side won seven of last eight Hoye games.
-- Bos-Chi-- Seven of last eight Dimuro games went over total.
-- Sea-LA-- 12 of last 17 Carapazza games stayed under total.

The Pirates remain hot as they have won nine of their last 11 games after winning the series opener last night. The victory improved them to 16-9 at home but I feels this is an excellent spot to go against them. The offense has been lukewarm as Pittsburgh is hitting just .243 over its last 10 games including .228 against right-handed pitching. Francisco Liriano will be making his third start of the season and so far, he has been pretty solid. He has allowed just one run in each of his first two starts but he has yet to make it through six innings and despite a 1.64 ERA, he has a 1.55 WHIP so he has been fortunate that he has not allowed more runs with the amount of baserunners he has put on. He has faced the Cubs once and wax lit up last season, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings. Chicago has dropped two straight following a solid run where it went 5-2 over a seven-game stretch. The offense is showing signs of life with a .271 average over its last 10 games and while hitting lefties has been an issue, facing an inconsistent Liriano could make that come around. Jeff Samardzija is having a solid season with a 3.49 ERA through nine starts but he has certainly been a tough luck pitcher with just 3.1 rpg of support behind him. He has already faced the Pirates once this season and shut them out for eight innings and in his three career starts against Pittsburgh, he has a 0.72 ERA and all of those starts took place at PNC Park. Play (959) Chicago Cubs

This is a 1* free play on the "under" between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night (7:10 EST).

Cliff Lee (4-2, 2.83 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lee was unfortunate to get saddled with a no-decision vs. the Reds last Friday, giving up two runs off six hits over seven frames, striking out seven and walking two. Lee is finally hitting his stride, quietly putting together a dominant stretch by not allowing more than two runs in each of his last three outings (note that Lee is 1-1 with a respectable 3.38 ERA in his last three vs. the Fish). Lee will be opposed by Kevin Slowey (1-4, 3.44 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off seven hits over three frames vs. the Diamondbacks on Friday. Slowey has stumbled a bit over his last two starts, seeing his ERA rise from 1.81 to 3.44; a date vs. the Phillies is just what the doctor ordered though as the right-hander is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.73 ERA over his last two starts vs. Philadelphia already this season. I believe the table is set for these veterans to battle each other into the latter frames as they take advantage of these inconsistent line-ups. How about you? What do you think? Duel or slugfest?

The New York Mets Matt Harvey has been a delight to watch this season with a perfect 5-0 record and several dominant performances and odds are he is going to have a brilliant year if they let him keep pitching instead of capping his innings.

Despite his record though the Mets have lost two of his starts and I like this spot against a very good hitting Cincinnati lineup.

The Reds have a Mat of their own and he also has a perfect record at 4-0. This Mat, Latos, has a much longer track record of success including a 2.70 ERA against the Mets for his career.

I think Latos can outduel Harvey and the talent surrounding each is clearly better for Cincinnati.

Free play of the day on the NY Yankees with Hiroki Kuroda on the mound against the Baltimore Orioles... a team that has been stumbling and bumbling until last night.

Kuroda has not only been pitching well of late for the Yankees, he's dominated the Orioles in three career starts against them.

The first number that stands out is the total number of innings pitched. When researching this game I expected to see something like 19 or 20 innings... but I was shocked to see Kuroda had lasted 24 1/3 innings in three starts.

Folks, that's more than eight innings per start against the Orioles --- but what's even more shocking is that he actually suffered a loss in those three starts. He's 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in those starts but hasn't gotten a ton of run support in two of them.

In his last start (earlier this year), Kuroda went all nine scattering five hits and no walks in a 3-0 shutout.

Baltimore counters with Jason Hammel who, although he beat them in his last home start against the Bronx Bombers, is 2-3 lifetime with a 5.82 ERA.

Hammel is just one of many Baltimore starters struggling right now and after holding the Yankees to two runs last night, you can bet they'll come out firing tonight.

The White Sox put the wraps on a three-game series with the Red Sox Wednesday night when they send super-surging Chris Sale to the mound at Comiskey Park. Sale takes the hill with team start wins in each of his last five starts while posting a sharp 1.14 ERA in those games. He's also in commanding KW form with 24 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three efforts. With that look for Sale to improve to 9-1 in his career team starts during the month of May here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Tyler Lyons makes his Major League debut for the Cardinals against Burch Smith, who has been rocked in his two outings. Lyons is a lefty, which is a benefit for us because lefties, especially control pitchers like Lyons, tend to have a lot of success their first time around the league. Lyons sits in the 89-91 range with the fastball, has a plus slider, and has a career 3.47 K/BB ratio in the minor leagues. The Padres have not fared well against left handed pitching so far, with a .293 wOBA and just a .306 OBP. The Cardinals bullpen has stabilized a lot with a 2.72 ERA in May and they're playing some good baseball of late, with a 13-5 record in the month of May entering Tuesday night's action.

Burch Smith has lasted just 6.1 innings in his first two Major League starts and he draws a difficult Cardinals lineup on Wednesday night. Four of Smith's 11 hits allowed have left the ballpark and he allowed three of them in his last start at Petco Park. Not only has Smith struggled, but the fact that he has been unable to work deep into games has forced the Padres into their bullpen very early and that's never a good thing for a team. Smith just doesn't appear to be ready. He pitched just 31 innings in Double-A before getting the call and skipped Triple-A altogether.

With the Cardinals playing great baseball and a favorable pitching matchup, there's a lot of value in taking them here as a small favorite.

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