Lowest Placement for a final three team5.1818Lowest Placement by winning team 3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 3 placement points for 3 remaining legs, and 10 placement points for worse possible performance is (4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and one NEL, one more eliminations, and final leg)

Jet-Cord 2.8888 26/9 29/12-36/12Predicted range (2.4166 to 3.0000) Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.8333.

Louie-Michael 4.4444 40/9 43/12-50/12Predicted range (3.5833 to 4.1666) Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel 5.0000 45/9 48/12-55/12Predicted range (4.0000 to 4.5866) Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166

Brent-Caite 5.1111 46/9 49/12-56/12Predicted range (4.0833 to 4.6666) Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.5000

What this tells us:With four teams remaining, Jet-Cord have become the heavy stastical favorites, period. Louie/Michael would have to win all three remaining legs to avoid becoming the worse averaging winning team ever.All four teams have a decent or better chance of being final three. None of the teams can finish with an acerage as low as the worse performing final three team. There isn’t much to go on as to which team is most likely to be the last eliminated team, but since next week has to logically be a NEL, there’s still one more leg to factor in to see if a favorite for elimination emerges.

One statistical oddity. At this point in the Race, all team acerages will tend to improve, especially for the teams whose current placement average is at 4.0000 or higher. Jet-Cord on the other hand could still raise their average closer to or above 3.000, as their average is lower than 4.000.

Lowest Placement for a final three team5.1818Lowest Placement by winning team 3.6153

Assuming best remaining performances are 2 placement points for 2 remaining legs, and 6 placement points for worse possible performance is (3-3) to reach the finish mat with one more elimination and final leg remaining).

Jet-Cord 2.7000 27/10 29/12-33/12Predicted range (2.4166 to 2.7500)Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.5833.

Louie-Michael 4.4000 44/10 46/12-50/12Predicted range (3.8333 to 4.1666) Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000

Jordan-Daniel 4.8000 48/10 50/12-54/12Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

Brent-Caite 4.8000 48/10 50/12-54/12Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333

What this tells us:Barring an error of nearly unprecedented proportions, Jet-Cord have become the heavy statistical favorites to win, period.

Should any of the other three teams win, that team would become the worse-performing winning team by average placement across all 16 editions to date. None of those three remaining teams can attain an average placement that is any better than 4.0000. If Jet-Cord win it all, they will be the fourth-best performing winners (and eighth overall), just behind Tyler-James and Kris-Jon. If they are third in this next-to-last leg, but win in the end, they wouldn’t be worse that the four more spaces down the list, with the eighth nest winning performance (and 12th best overall performance, ever to date.)

At worse, as long as Jet-Cord make the final three, their final average cannot be worse than 2.7500, the same average placement attained by Margie-Luke.

I’ll be moving long distance next week, so I probably won’t get a chance to update the projection, but once it’s in the final three luck becomes more of a factor with the final leg. Just look at the number of second place teams that finished with a better average than the winning team. Although in this season, unless it’ a Jet-Cord win, it’ll be the worse performing winners ever.

I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so.

Logged

"The authority of example and considerations of character, unlike pudding, are not whipped up in an instant." - Neal A. Maxwell

I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so.

you should re-open your rant thread

Logged

The story so far:In the beginning the Universe was created.This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move

I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so.

you should re-open your rant thread

Let's not.

And this thread is for the schnauzers ranking discussion, who you want to win can go elsewhere, okay?

Logged

RFF's Golden Rule:Have RESPECT for each other, regardless of opinion. This of course includes no flaming/insulting other users and/or their posts.

We've had two teams in the final three finish with an identical average before (Rob/Brennan and Frank-Margarita in the first season), but they were the dominant teams in their season, I'd be hard pressed to label either Brent-Caite or Dan-Jordan as "dominant teams."

Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12. By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck. Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team. I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you. Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.

Well no matter which team I like or don't I have to admit that I can't find fault in the teams that have won since season 12. By removing mid leg equalizers they have put the final leg in the hand of the racers and dumb luck. Now that doesn't mean I have disliked all the earlier winners (because that isn''t true), but if you win, by god I want you to have a run the leg better then any other team. I don't want you to be just the team that did good on one final task and only finished first because an equalizer mid leg erased the lead another team had on you. Thats why I love the new lay out for legs, you can build a lead, and you can lose a lead, but it isn't due to the manipulation of the producers.

I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*

I still think there should be an occasional Hours of Operation just for old times' sake.I've always thought that TAR's strongest legs occur in the middle of the race, and that usually the finale is poor in comparison to the rest of the season. I will admit that TAR 12 has fixed a lot of the problems involved. Now if only the tasks on the final leg were more challenging (I really want to see another TAR 14-style memory task, that looked brutal).

I though TAR12 was tricky enough? memory + puzzle solving IN THE COLD *brrr*

TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.

TAR 12 was very tricky too. But TAR 14 had hundreds of surfboards and confounded pretty much all the teams remaining.

forgot that aspect of it. those memory tasks sure were challenging!

Guess TAR16 would be remembered as having some of the easiest tasks ever... First the coin tossing (non-)speed bump practically next door to the RB, and then the memory task.... they could have at least made it tougher by having psychedelic styled posters of SOMETHING from each leg (instead of just e eliminated teams & NELs) and mixing them in with other similar posters....