Armchair GM — 2010 Edition

Sunday night, Larry Riley popped up on the Finals post-game show to deliver his usual platitudes. He mainly stuck to message — insisting numerous times that he and Nelson have full authority until Cohan tells them they don’t — but made at least one revealing statement. When asked how many games the Warriors’ favorite excuse cost the team last year, Riley estimated the total at 10-12 games. For those keeping score at home, that means the team’s own GM pegged a perfectly healthy, excuse-free 2009-10 Warriors team as no better than a 38-win squad — still leaving them 12 games out of the playoff hunt. Despite that less-than-world-beating assessment, Riley sat on his hands at the trading deadline. Instead of upgrading his talent, he actively gave away assets (Claxton’s and Bell’s expiring deals). If the Warriors are going to be a playoff threat, let alone contender, they’re going to need some work. Here’s what I’d do.

In my annual fantasy-GM post, I do my best to keep some grasp on reality. The cap still applies, other teams need to agree to trades, and free agents won’t sign for the vet minimum for the privilege of playing for Chris Cohan. This year, however, I’m taking one fundamental leap — I’m assuming a world where Larry Ellison, not Chris Cohan, controls the team’s purse strings. The news that Ellison has teamed up with the minority owners is the best news regarding the sale we’ve heard in ages (although those looking for a dark lining in a silver cloud could question whether Ellison’s effective crushing of the competitive bidding process through the minority partners’ right of first refusal may result in an ultimate offer Cohan is unwilling to accept). Assuming Ellison buys the team — which now seems a lock assuming Cohan gets a price he likes — my guess is the luxury tax threshold is no longer an iron-clad ceiling for the team’s spending. Ellison has always been willing to pay for success. I’m optimistic he’d take the same approach with the Warriors. No longer forced to operate in the junior varsity pool of teams not paying the luxury tax, the Warriors’ rebuilding efforts could get a lot more interesting in a hurry.

Step 1: Get a new basketball mind, GM and coach — I covered this in my open letter to the new Warriors’ owner, but the first thing the Warriors need to succeed is a basketball plan. Ellison needs to find the best mind available and turn over the basketball judgment calls to that person — starting with the hiring of a GM and coach. For the GM, I’d love to see the team bring in someone connected with and respected by the small circle of people who run NBA teams. It doesn’t need to be a big name, but it does need to be someone who will get his or her calls answered as time ticks away on draft day or before the trading deadline. Some creativity and cap-savvy wouldn’t hurt either. For the coach, I’d hate to see the Warriors employ another retread — someone who has tried and failed in several cities to put together an elite team. History has a way of repeating itself, particularly in the coaching ranks, as we’ve learned all too well the last few years. The team should take a gamble on an up-and-coming assistant. Since the Celtics’ Thibodeau appears to be off the market, Mario Elie of the Kings and Mike Budenholzer of the Spurs are at the top of my list. The new coach needs to start with the bedrock of relentless defense and unselfish offense.

Step 2: Move Corey Maggette (and his contract) — For a team newly focused on defense and ball-movement, Corey Maggette couldn’t be a worse fit. It’s hard for me to peg what Maggette’s trade value is around the NBA. He puts up undeniable stats, is elite at doing one thing (getting to the line) and a good soldier on bad teams. Unfortunately, his contract is ugly for someone who should be a sixth man (or lower) and the limitations of his game are well-known to the rest of the NBA (they, of course, regularly exploit them). My best hope for a Maggette deal would be a salary dump, like the one the team pulled off for Stephen Jackson last fall.

Of the teams with big 2010-11 expiring deals available, Indiana seems like a fair match for Maggette. He could provide some needed offensive punch, would thrive in the structured offense and fit decently well paired with any of their incumbent forwards (Granger, Dunleavy, Murphy). As a team in the playoff hunt in the east, Maggette could help push the Pacers into the top 8 while costing them very little in terms of talent. Maggette ($8.9 mil) for Jeff Foster ($6.1 mil, expiring 2011) and Dahntay Jones ($2.5 mil, expiring 2013) is at least plausible. Foster would be cap-fodder. Jones could play the role of a poor man’s Raja Bell — a tough, physical swing defender to play off the bench. This type of Maggette deal would be mostly addition by subtraction, but any 2011 expiring deals the team got in return could be put to work on the trade market (rather than just used to line Cohan’s pockets).

Step 3: Move up in the draft — When the Warriors went all-out at the end of the season to get Nelson the win record, they also deprived the team of a guaranteed top-5 pick in what now looks to be a 5 player draft. Since the team was unable to hold their ground at the third-worst record, they’ll now need to get creative (or very lucky) to land an impact talent. Since we’ll hopefully soon have a new owner willing to go into luxury tax territory, the Warriors should be able to rely on creativity and cash rather than merely crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. For example, the Sixers have expressed a desire to make a deal with the second pick if someone will take Elton Brand’s deal off their hands. With Brand making $14.8 this year (and rising about a mil a year over the next three years), some team will be paying a lot for a little in return. Assuming the Maggette deal above, the Warriors could offer two 2011 expiring deals — Radmanovic ($6.5 mil) and Foster ($6.1 mil) — plus the sixth pick in exchange for Brand and the second pick. Given Vlad’s player option, the deal would need to be completed post-July 1, but could be agreed on in principle on draft day.

The Sixers do the deal because they save nearly $50 million dollars for the cost of only 4 draft spots. Since they don’t have a clear need met by the second pick, the drop back the 6 doesn’t hurt them that badly. The Warriors could toss in a future pick to sweeten the deal if necessary. The Warriors do the deal because $50 million won’t cause the NBA’s richest owner’s jaw to drop, a limited-mobility Brand still fits a need for the team (low-post bulk) and the second pick will grab us a key talent we need for building a top-tier team. The Sixers are in a difficult position familiar to Warriors fans — giving away talent (or draft picks) at bargain rate prices because of bad signings in the past. But with a new owner, the Warriors will finally get to see how the other half lives — acquiring talent and picks without having to sweat the price.

Step 4: Draft Evan Turner — Wall is the lead talent in this draft, but with Curry on board he doesn’t fit a key need for the team. With the second pick, however, the Warriors have the opportunity to land a shooting guard or power forward with huge potential. I would ultimately go with Turner here, although Favors would also be a great addition. Turner has the size (6-7) to pair with Curry, sees the floor well, works hard on defense and combines All-Star talent with glue-guy attitude. He can also likely help from day 1 — something that Favors likely can’t offer. For a team that has already invested (or should have invested) multiple years in young power forwards, I see Turner as a safer choice here — and a perfect fit for the team.

Step 5: Decide Ellis’ future — If Ellis felt betrayed by the Curry selection last year after being assured he was the point guard of the future, picking Turner would likely cause an even stronger response now that Ellis has been pushed to the 2. Although I still believe a Curry/Ellis backcourt can be successful, I also believe that their defensive limitations based on size and strength will always be an achilles heel, particularly in tough playoff battles. The team could try playing a three guard rotation with Curry, Ellis and Turner — or slide Turner down for time at small forward — but my guess is Ellis would be unhappy with the perceived demotion involved with any Turner scenario. As poorer fit next to Curry, Ellis is the guy I’d love to move. The challenge then becomes getting value for him.

Although the Ellis-to-Memphis deals will likely be rumored throughout the off-season, I don’t find either version (Mayo and Thabeet or Gay sign-and-trade) particularly attractive. Mayo would be an offensive downgrade from Ellis without offering significant improvement in any other area (he may actually be worse at running a team). Thabeet has size, but is a few years away from being a factor under even the best-case scenario. Rudy Gay has the most talent to offer and would fit a need at 3, but the very reasons Memphis won’t break the bank to keep him should be the reasons the Warriors stay away. He’s inconsistent, both within games and across the season, his defense is nothing special and his attitude often lackadaisical.

If we move Ellis, I’d target Luol Deng on the Bulls. The deal works under the cap, with Deng’s contract equal to Ellis’ in length and a few million richer than Ellis’ over its life. The Bulls do the deal because Ellis could be paired with Rose in the backcourt given Rose’s size and defensive ability. Ellis would provide a big offensive upgrade for a team looking for points. And if the Bulls with the James sweepstakes, Ellis would fit well next to him. LeBron longed for a consistent second option on offense with his Cavs teams. If the Bulls made the move for Ellis, they’d be able to offer James two better scorers (Rose, Ellis) than the Cavs and two promising low-post players (Noah, Gibson). The Warriors do the deal because Deng is a long small forward, capable of hitting the boards and holding his own on defense. He’s not a huge scorer — he won’t need to be with a Curry/Turner backcourt — but he’s also not Bruce Bowen. He’s also a good locker room guy and likely to provide a steadying presence on a relatively young team. After an injury-plagued season, his perceived trade value may also be artificially low.

Step 6: Complete the bench through free agency — Other than the top names (James, Wade, Bosh), this year’s free agent crowd doesn’t run very deep. Since the Warriors will be capped out pretty much regardless of what they do, the absence of many second-tier guys isn’t a huge problem. The team will be limited to spending Larry Ellison’s money on re-signing its own free agents and burning through the $5 mil or so of the mid-level exception. For our own free agents, I’d bring back Morrow and Tolliver. On an unselfish team, Morrow will get plenty of good looks from behind the arc and help stretch the court for slashers. His defense — which did improve a bit last year — would also be less of a liability when helped by more quality defenders. Tolliver is a great hustle, injury-insurance guy to have on the bench. His jump-shooting ability also makes him a nice change of pace. I wouldn’t break the bank for him, but he’d be a nice piece to have back for 5-10 minutes ever few games.

As for non-Warriors, I’d target Steve Blake (most recently of the Clippers) as a back-up point guard. Blake does everything you need in a backup — he’ll run the offense smoothly, hit open shots and play decent defense. He’s an upgrade over Watson because of his passing ability and defense. Blake’s three-point range would also help spread the court when he’s running the reserve squad, even if he won’t occasionally explode for 30 as Watson did this year. Although multiple teams will likely be looking to add Blake, I doubt he’ll command a deal above the mid-level exception.

Take the steps above, and you’re left with:

PG: Curry, Blake

SG: Turner, Williams, Jones

SF: Deng, Azubuike, Morrow

PF: Randolph, Wright, Tolliver

C: Biedrins, Turiaf, Brand

The last roster spot could be filled with a second rounder or a summer league stand-out.

The line-up above takes big chances on Randolph and Biedrins. I’m inclined to give both players another year to prove that they belong. Randolph needs time to grow into his skills, settle down with extended playing time and show what he can do when Don Nelson isn’t his coach. Biedrins may end up being a bigger gamble given how lost he looked this season, but his minutes could be cut dramatically with Turiaf and Brand on the bench. Brand might even benefit from a change of scenery and find a post-injury role, much like McDyess did on the Pistons and Spurs.

My attempt at rebuilding the Warriors wouldn’t contend for a championship next season, but it would likely be a playoff team and would have plenty of room to grow. It could run on offense (Curry, Turner, Randolph), play tough team defense (Jones, Deng, Randolph, Turiaf), stretch the court with long range shooting (Curry, Williams, Azubuike, Morrow) and score in the paint with hustle (Randolph, Biedrins) and skill (Wright, Brand). With the right coach, unselfishness and a bit of a mean streak, it stands a good chance of becoming more than the sum of its parts. At the very least, it would have a better shot at relevance than the “best case scenario, 38 wins” team Larry Riley assembled last year.

Adam Lauridsen

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I don’t understand salary cap rules, they have like a bible. I never want to become an expert at the salary cap, it is just too complicated.
But anyway, from what I know:

* Qualifying Offer is made by the prior team(in case of Gay, Mem)
* Other teams can sign players to an “Offer Sheet” within their cap(in case of Gay, may be Knicks)
* Prior team can match the offersheet or let him go or sign and trade to any team, usually the team that signed the player to offer sheet.

Atleast this is how it used to be, did it change recently?

believewhat

To add my earlier post,

* If the player do not like to sign with prior team(Gay and Mem), he have to play final year for qualifying offer and become unrestricted next year, just like David Lee is becoming unrestricted this year. David Lee didn’t like the offer from Knicks and played out last year to become unrestricted and free to sign anywhere this year.

Pain Train

Trade everyone except Curry and AR. Curry is a proven asset and AR is baby KG. Who cares if the 19yo manchild is an idiot at 19? He will figure it out by 21 and we would have a monster 3/4 for years. Pretty sure he is 20 in a few days. BW has sat 10x the games he has played, and has had double digit rebounds twice ever. EVER! Buke is solid too, the right price for a borderline starter and he leaves it all on the floor. There is nobody else on this team worth worrying about. Monta will always lose to Portland, Lakers, Houston, Utah, it doesn’t matter if he can exist with Curry. Nothing is going to make him defend strong PG’s or tall 2 guards. He averaged 25.5ppg and we were terrible. Every GM gets that, you blogging fools get off the pipe. Cousins is all we can use and rest assured Sacto will take him and hold us down for 10 more years.

This is a time for the Warriors to make bold moves. They have to obtain a powerful defensive center, power and small forward. They can only obtain these goals by trading Ellis and Randolph for draft picks and established players.

The Warriors need to trade with Detrot for Tayshaun Prince to play small forward and to sign free agent Boston’s Perkings to play center.
If we obtain these goals, the Warriors are in the play-offs, barring injuries.

The Warriors need to trade with Detrot for Tayshaun Prince to play small forward and to sign free agent Boston’s Perkins to play center.
If we obtain these goals, the Warriors are in the play-offs, barring injuries.