Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Market Watch

In the Westgate look-ahead line the Packers were -8 point favorites. When it reopened on Sunday night books had raised that to -9.5 and -10. Some of that was due to the Packers offensive explosion, but I'm sure some of it was related to the Bridgewater injury too. It sounds like he could be good to go, and the line has settled back down at -9 (for now). 62% of the bets are coming in on Green Bay.

Bottom Line

Last week the Vikings were without AP and Rudolph, and entered the game with a shaky OL and rookie QB. None of that mattered though because Bridgewater executed a great game plan and McKinnon/Asiata combined for a big day. Part of that is facing off against a subpar Falcons D, but they fully earned their win.

Now they have the luxury of going up against another suspect D. I really thought that the Packers defensive unit would start showing signs of improvement, but that just hasn't happened yet - especially vs the run. The key question will be how healthy is Bridgewater's ankle, and what does he have for an encore? It's one thing to surprise the football world in a home debut, but it could be an entirely different story going to Lambeau on a short week. UPDATE: Bridgewater is "doubtful", which means it's time to Ponder...and it makes me like the Vikings chances even less.

The reason the Packers D didn't matter last week was because Aaron Rodgers made good on his "r-e-l-a-x" statement and came as close as you could to a perfect game. Their run game still sucks as Lacy continues to look indecisive with the ball, but much like the Chargers, it doesn't matter that much when you have an MVP-caliber QB. Zimmer might be able to design a scheme to disrupt Rodgers' rhythm, but the best they can hope for is to contain the damage.

In the end, I'd need to see more before I bought into the Vikings hype, so I'd pass on them in this matchup. I'd consider a play on Green Bay if the line reached -7, but I have no interest in getting involved at the current number. If it drops below -9, I'll most certainly add it to a teaser.