Sunday, December 30, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 17

Week 16 Results (10-5) – Overall (135-72-1)

Well, 10-5 is better than 9-6 but not worth bragging
about. Here’s to closing out the regular
season on a high note. All but two
playoff spots have been filled, but there will be several games with playoff
implications to keep an eye on this Sunday.
On to the next one…

Bucs @ Falcons

With the NFC’s #1 seed in their back pocket, there’s really
nothing but divisional pride on the line in this one for the Falcons. I don’t expect Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio
Jones, and Tony Gonzalez to play much, if at all, in the second half which should
be a benefit to the struggling Bucs. Tampa
Bay has lost five straight after winning four in a row and must be able to
trade punches with the Falcons long enough to exploit the advantage late, when
I’m guessing Luke McCown sees a good bit of action. Mike Smith won’t want to lose a division game,
and he won’t want to give his stars too much off-time with a bye coming next
week. Falcons do enough early on to beat
the Bucs.

Jets @ Bills

Mark Sanchez gets yet another chance to add to the blooper
reels. I like CJ Spiller to replicate
his week 1 outburst for 194 total yards against the Jets as New York’s season comes to a fitting, ugly
win.

Ravens @ Bengals

Andy Dalton finally beat the Steelers last week. This week he finally beats the Ravens. Cincinnati is
a late letdown against Dallas
from riding a seven game winning streak.
Their defense is one of the best in the game of late, and I like that to
continue in a matchup where I’m sure John Harbaugh is trying to escape without
injuries as he prepares for next week’s showdown with Andrew Luck and the
Colts. Spoiler alert – the Dolphins
aren’t beating the Patriots, so this one will be for division pride rather than
playoff seeding. I think this one means
more to the home team who needs to maintain that high heading into next week’s
showdown in Foxborough.

Bears @ Lions

The motivation factor in this one is squarely with the
Bears. If they win, and the Packers beat
the Vikings, they clinch the 6th seed. Chicago
has won six of the last seven in this series, and the Lions have nothing to
play for other than getting Calvin Johnson 2,000 receiving yards a week after
breaking Jerry Rice’s single season yardage record. I’m calling for the upset here as the Lions
don’t end the season on an eight game losing streak. Stefan Logan won’t be
returning kicks, so that’s one plus for Detroit. Johnson gets 176 yards to finish a
spectacular year with 2,068 total yards.
Matt Forte’s ankle proves to be a factor as he’s unable to get
unleashed. Detroit
does just enough to play spoiler to rival Chicago.

Jaguars @ Titans

Jacksonville
is the more competitive of the two teams at the end of the year, as the Jaguars
nearly knocked off the Patriots last week, losing by seven. Meanwhile, the Titans we busy getting their
asses handed to them by the Packers 55-7.
I like how the combination of Chad Henne and Justin Blackmon have looked
the last few weeks and think week 17 is a fine time for the rookie receiver to
post his biggest game and get Jaguar fans excited about next year’s
possibilities. Sad folks those Jags fans.

Texans @ Colts

Houston
needs to win this one to clinch the #1 seed, so expect to see the pedal to the
floor early with an aggressive offensive approach by the Texans. They’ll also want to bounce back from last
week’s embarrassing loss at home to the Vikings. I have serious questions about this Texans
team, and if they lose this one, I’ll have a tough time considering them
serious contenders for the title. Great
teams step up in big situations. Here’s Houston’s. I love Andrew Luck and the Chuck Pagano
story, but I think the Colts (and specifically Luck) are getting a little
tired. I really like Houston here.

Panthers @ Saints

This one looked a lot better on the schedule in
September. Two of football’s biggest
disappointments square off in a season both would rather forget. As bad as this year has gone for Carolina and New
Orleans, they’re both playing good football of
late. I’m going with the Saints because
I think they’re, to a man, going to want to finish this Bountygate season on a
positive note. Drew Brees is going to
lay it all on the line. Expect a lot of
points and a Saints victory.

Eagles @ Giants

There’s a whole lotta ugly heading into this one. The Giants were on top of the mountain in the
NFC East, controlling their own destiny with a month to go. They proceeded to lose three of their next
four games, including the last two in embarrassing fashion. New York
lost at Atlanta and Baltimore
by a combined 67-14 score, and all 14 of their points came last week at Baltimore. Still, the Giants make it into the playoffs
with a win at Philly and losses by the Bears, Vikings, and Cowboys. I don’t see these guys flipping a switch this
week as they face off against a Philly team that will have Andy Reid and
probably Michael Vick as Eagles for the last time. Vick gets the start for an injured Nick Foles
and was under center when the Eagles beat the Giants in week 4. They’ve only won once since then, but I’m
calling for the nice sendoff and ultimate chokejob. Philly spoils New York’s season as the champs fail to even
make the playoffs.

Browns @ Steelers

The season is over for both of these teams, and while I hate
to challenge the professionalism of these athletes, I wonder what kind of
effort we’ll see in this one. Pittsburgh, this season’s
biggest disappointment in my opinion, has dropped three straight (two at home)
and five of their last six. What a
collapse they’ve had. You’d like to
think a win against the Browns is a given, but they lost in Cleveland a month ago by six. Can they get it together and avoid a season
ending embarrassment? I sure hope so
since Thad Lewis and Montario Hardesty will be replacing Brandon Weeden and
Trent Richardson.

Here’s my favorite matchup of the week. Aside from the Sunday Night Football finale,
you won’t find two teams with more to play for this week. Green Bay
clinches the #2 seed and a bye with a win, and Minnesota clinches the #6 seed with a
win. Minnesota can still get in with a loss if
the Cowboys, Giants, and Bears lose, but they surely won’t be relying on
that. Expect to see a lot of Adrian
Peterson in this one as he’s their only chance to get the win, and he’s 208
yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season record. Peterson ran for 210 against these Packers
just a few weeks ago, but 130 of them came on two carries. When it comes down to it, there’s no doubt
which QB I trust more in this one – Rodgers by a mile. He knows the importance of this game, and
he’s money in a dome. Randall Cobb’s
ailment aside, the Packers are getting healthy.
Clay Matthews is back, and that’s trouble for Christian Ponder. I see a lot of long yardage situations for Minnesota, and that’s
not where they way to be.

Dolphins @ Patriots

You think New England will
be focused for this one? After nearly
losing to the laughingstock Jaguars last week, the Patriots need to win this
week to avoid losing the #3 seed in the AFC.
Miami is
going to bear the brunt of last week’s crapshow. Belichick looks to make a statement and get
back any of his team’s lost confidence. Patriots big.

Raiders @ Chargers

Win one for the Norver!
The Norv Turner era will end at roughly 7:45 Sunday, but they’d have to
really mail it in to lose to these Raiders.
Terrelle Pryor gets the start after Greg Hardy lit up Carson Palmer last
week. San Diego won their first two games and will
win their last two games. Unfortunately,
they went just 3-9 in the rest of them.

Cardinals @ 49ers

If the 49ers can’t beat Brian Hoyer and the Cardinals at
home they should give up their spot in the playoffs. Aldon Smith is three sacks behind Michael
Strahan’s single season record of 22.5 sacks, and he could get that in the
first quarter.

Rams @ Seahawks

Barring losses by both Green Bay
and San Francisco,
this game is meaningless. Seattle is putting up
insane points of late, outscoring their opponents 150-30 in their last three
games. The Rams have won four of five,
but does anyone really see this Seahawks team losing at home right not, let
alone to the Rams?

Cowboys @ Redskins

The most important game of the week gets the SNF
timeslot. If the Redskins win, they
clinch the NFC East and the #4 seed.
They can still get the #6 seed if they lose if Chicago
and Minnesota
lose too. For the Cowboys it’s
simple. Win and you get the NFC East
title and #4 seed. Lose and you go
home. Washington
is riding a remarkable six game winning streak and looks to take down Dallas for the second
time this season. Dallas has been playing good football in the
second half of the season, winning five of seven, but they lost last week at
home to the Saints and have played six straight close, emotional contests. Do they have enough to take down the rolling
Redskins at RFK? I believe in Tony
Romo. He has a 13-3 TD to INT ratio over
the last five games, and there’s not a hotter receiver in football right now
than Dez Bryant. I think Romo and Bryant
do their part, but I think the Redskins defense will end up making more stops
than the Cowboys. Redskins win a high
scoring regular season capper.

If these go according to plan (ha ha), here’s how the
playoffs shape up –