Oh, The X Factor USA. You arrived two years ago full of bluster, proudly expecting to win the hearts of America and become the new biggest show on television. Instead, things all got a little bit awkward because, well, the ratings weren't quite what you wanted and everyone seemed to enjoy criticising you more than, er, enjoying you.

You've had your moments. Steve Jones was an excellent choice of first host because of how utterly terrible he was ("No, Bruno Mars, thank you!") and who could forget Khloe Kardashian's areolas? But despite all that people just haven't warmed to you.

Now it's time for your third season, and you're starting to get a little grown up. You've been fine tuning yourself. Out are Steve and Khloe, and sticking around is new daddy Mario Lopez. You've got rid of some of those pesky judges, too. Simon Cowell is still there, because he's Simon Cowell, but you've ditched that popstar who couldn't speak (sorry Britney) and have added some new women to the table.

To be honest with you, this could be make or break. Cowell and three women could be a) charming, b) funny, or c) obnoxious. How is Mr Syco going to behave? Sure, he's expecting a little kid of his own now, but that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of opportunities for complaining about being hen-pecked, sleaze or serious eye-rolling. And will the judges themselves stack up?

We know Demi is good fun, so that's you off to a shining start. But Paulina Rubio is something of an unknown quantity to us, and our Spanish isn't solid enough to even try to catch up on her stint on La Voz Mexico. Mind you, she does at least have talent show experience, and we have a feeling from some of her tweets that she won't be holding back.

Then there's Kelly Rowland. Now, this boosts the possibility of a Beyoncé cameo, which is in your favour. Not in your favour is the fact that she wasn't exactly a highlight when she did The X Factor UK and even phoned in with a cold at one point (it was very much like Mean Girls's Karen huffing "cough cough I'm sick" when she Skyped into the show). But then Nicole Scherzinger was a big nothing when she was on you (apart from alienating viewers by making Rachel Crow cry hysterically, obviously) and became "schamazing" on The X Factor UK. Perhaps the reverse will be true for Kelly.

So those are your new judges, and yes, OK, you're starting to convince us. But what about the rest of the show? It's not like it all fell apart because Britney didn't want to be mean, after all. First things first, you have to compete with the worthy 'talent' of American Idol - we know you're not on at the same time and we know you're on the same network so really there's no actual competition between you, but that's not what the media will say. And for some reason people really, really love American Idol.

Yep, we think it can verge on the boring too, but maybe you've gone too far. The UK might want flash, bang and wallop, but it turns out that the States haven't been quite so receptive to roller-skating backing dancers and overblown graphics. They actually want to hear some singing. Yeah, I know, on a talent competition. Weird. That's one of the big questions for you, though. Are you going to stick with the huge productions because they're actually quite fun? Or are you going to strip it back and let us get a better idea of the stars?

Speaking of the talent, none of your big moves (like getting rid of boot camp and judges' houses for something "really dramatic" and "very high pressure", whatever that might be) will matter if you don't find a 'quite good' popstar at the end of it. You can go on about how your biggest rival, The Voice, hasn't set the recording world alight yet, but neither have your winners - where's season one champ Melanie Amaro, for example?

Sure, your UK sister unleashed One Direction and Cher Lloyd and Leona Lewis and Little Mix on the world, but you've yet to prove yourself. What will really get those viewers tuning in is some kind of off-the-scale, exciting, fresh, relevant talent. No, we're not talking a new diva. We mean something different. Demi's been talking all about how "insane" your talent is so you'd better back it up, now.

Honestly, X, we're getting a little tired of the whole thing. We've always wanted the best for you, but this could be the moment that decides your future. Will you pull your socks up, win over the viewing public, unleash a new musical icon and become America's favourite show? Or will you slide softly into the night, mournfully whistling 'At Last' to an empty room and sighs of indifference? Well, I suppose we're about to find out...

The X Factor USA premieres tonight (September 11) on Fox, and will launch in the UK on Friday, September 20 at 8pm on ITV2.