Diaries

It made me feel better, if nothing else. Even though my identity isn't too hard to find on this site, I redacted some stuff because it makes me feel better.

CC: Board of Regents

Mr. Schlissel,

I would like to begin this letter by describing my connection(s) to the University of Michigan. In XXXX, I matriculated into LSA as a member of the Honors College; I graduated with distinction and high honors in XXXX, and subsequently completed an MSE degree in the College of Engineering in XXXX. Aside from my personal enrollment in the University, I have numerous family ties to U of M: my father (an alumnus of blah), my mother (an alumna of blah blah blah), my brother (an alumnus of the college of blah), my wife (an alumna blah). I have been passionate about the University in no small part because of the success of the football program, learning the fight song before I knew the national anthem, cheering for the maize and blue on autumn days before I knew how to read a scoreboard, and understanding the excellence that the University prides itself in (in all manners) long before I understood the sterling academic and professional reputation of the University and its graduates. I would be surprised if my personal experience in this manner is singular.

You are no doubt aware that the University of Michigan football program has not performed well of late. Indeed, any number of national sports pundits has been quick to note this. This, in itself, reflects curiously on a University that prides itself in being “the Leaders and Best” in all things. However, competitive sport must have winners and losers and seasons of feast and famine; I do not take professional issue with the performance of the football program, but merely experience the pain of a passionate observer and fanatic, and hope that Michigan football will return to its prominence as a national powerhouse program.

I do, however, find recent events deplorable in which the athletic department has demonstrated a lack of loyalty to fans, an interest in profit margins over fan experience, endangerment of its student athletes, and a general black eye to the University and danger to the professional value of my Michigan education. For instance, my father (every bit as rabid a fan as I) was recently unwilling and unable to purchase season tickets to Michigan football games, due to their continuously increasing costs (no small feat, to out-price a dentist). This price gouging extends to the students, who are yearly asked to pony up more cash for tickets to see the likes of Appalachian State, Miami of Ohio, and University of Massachusetts play in the Big House. As an activity integral to the connection of alumni, students, and prospective students/employees with the University, this unholy pursuit of profit (from a non-profit institution) is beginning to act quite counter to its purpose, and is becoming noted by the media at large. Further, even when students purchase season tickets months ahead of schedule, the University has been recently dumping unsold tickets (to the tune of a ticket for a Big Ten football game with a bottle of Coke) while students and alumni remain holding unfairly expensive tickets.

Even this would be bearable, were the athletic department acting as a general boon to publicity for the University. However, recent events demonstrate this to be untrue. For instance, last year the athletic department paid for a plane to skywrite “GO BLUE” over Spartan Stadium. I don’t need to spell out for you in further detail what a sophomoric act this was. Estimates of the cost (which were never released) were on the order of $3000, a great use of the aforementioned inflated ticket proceeds. Last year, the athletic department also decided it would be a fabulous idea to put a giant Kraft macaroni noodle outside, in order to increase marketing cash flow; you can Google the results to see the public outcry over the ridiculous corporatization of one of the most beautiful stadiums in the world. Most egregiously, the football program has recently been in national news over its handling of the safety and health of its student athletes. I need not expand in further detail on this, as you could simply turn on your television to learn more.

What is truly impressive, however, is the ability of the athletic department to obscure, obfuscate, and deny culpability in the above, always diffusing blame and rejecting alleged wrongdoing:

On ticket prices: "We raised the ticket prices, but we wanted to make sure the ticket price increase was not at all perceived to be an opportunity for us to make more money off of the students.” – David Brandon (athletic director), as Michigan students pay among the most in the country to watch football; how else are price increases to be perceived?

On the “two Cokes, two tickets” promo:"Due to a miscommunication in the approval process, this promotion should not have run as is.” – Michigan spokesman… which raises the question, what exactly was the promotion going to be?

On the noodle: "This is the classic deal: somebody goes by and takes a picture of it and puts it on the Internet, and then they think this is the new hood ornament for Michigan Stadium." – Dave Brandon. A continual thread throughout these statements, that every issue raised is a matter of perception on the part of the fans/alumni/media.

On the skywriting over East Lansing:"There were no locations targeted." – Dave Ablauf (spokesman for AD), in stark contrast to the stated target of East Lansing by the pilot who did the skywriting.

On the endangerment of student athletes:I could copy and paste the entire press statement from David Brandon, but let me highlight the use of ambiguous, non-culpable language: “confusing”, “lack of communication”, “circumstance that was not in the best interest of our student-athletes”, “unique and complex situation” (despite the fact this happens every game-day Saturday), training staff “did not see the hit” (despite everyone else in the stadium immediately understanding what was happening), et cetera.

This is not the Michigan that I grew up with, nor is it the Michigan that I wish to be associated with. Mistakes happen, of that we can be sure; the measure of a man, program, and institution is how we deal with mistakes. It is not difficult (unless, apparently, you’re a member of the athletic department) to come forward and admit wrongdoing instead of deflecting and parrying. Any one of these events and subsequent evasions may be forgivable; in sum, they overwhelmingly demonstrate casual disregard for the truth, disrespect for the intelligence of fans and alumni of the University of Michigan, disinterest in the safety of students, and a deaf ear to the complaints and desires of those associated with Michigan. This athletic department and administration is rapidly destroying the goodwill and esteem of one of the proudest, most revered universities in the world. Never have I been embarrassed to declare my alma mater in a professional setting, as I am today. A losing football program is acceptable, when run with dignity and grace. An athletic department that tarnishes the value of my professional association with the University of Michigan is not.

I urge you to take whatever actions you deem necessary to reverse this course.

I've been looking at quite a few candidates for 2015 HC the past few weeks as it had become increasingly clear the Hoke is not the answer; something I think the masses have finally agreed upon after Saturday. I will post a few profiles this week in diaries on what I have found on candidates outside the normal cabal regurgitated over and over. Some candidates I have done a ton of work on - some I have done less on. All are current head coaches as I don't believe we can take a chance on someone who does not have HC experience at the NCAA level unless their name is John Harbaugh.

I am not an AD nor do I have a full time staff to focus on one of of the most important decisions over the next decade. These are superficial reports based on raw data. If I were an AD I'd be doing a lot of on the ground work on each of these people's backgrounds starting from their playing days on forward to every coaching stop.

Past results do not guarantee a damn thing. But that is all we can go on.

These are not necessarily my top candidates (read: Jim Harbaugh) but people we could get and are interesting and not "Sumlin, Shaw, Gundy redux"

I believe an elite level coach gets results within 2-3 years, by results I don't mean 11-2 but improving a bad program or maintaining a good program

W/L record is not the be all and end all - what Gary Barnett did for Northwestern is more impressive than what a lot of coaches have done at USC or Bama or Texas over the years. Spurrier went and won at Duke for example early in his career. Or just see John Beilein.

Adjust everything for conference, level of competition, and ability to get recruits

I don't care about systems - a good coach will coach up players. It's about the Jimmy and Joes not the X's and O's.

Next candidate.... Dan Mullen, age: 42

Summary: Dan Mullen is the head football coach of Mississippi State. He has been for 5+ years now. Dan Mullen has a wholly unremarkable record at Miss State. He also is in a no win situation in the toughest division in college football. Dan Mullen has somehow gone from a coach large portions of his fan base wanted gone after 2013's 4-6 start to a man Michigan fans are clamoring for and afraid of losing to Florida if/when they extinguish their current coach. I can only imagine the confusion in Starkville.

I have no idea what Dan Mullen is. I see a team that beats up 3-4 baby seals every year. I see a team that finishes either 4th or 5th every year in its division; one that was only 6 teams deep until Texas A&M joined the SEC. I see a team that beats up on the bottom tier SEC teams - the ones that finish in 6th in the West and 6th/7th in the East division, to get to their annual 7 or 8 wins. They then proceed to get blased out of the water most of the time when facing the top tier SEC teams. There is no shame in that. But there is no great coaching greatness in that either. In fact, if Mullen's counterpart in Mississippi was not so dirty (allegedly!) I'd consider Hugh Freeze to be a way more interesting candidate.

Dan Mullen may be the greatest coach on Earth or average or ho hum. It is almost impossible to figure it out in his situation. But since he is so well received in our community I thought I'd do a write up for him.

Recent (10 years) coaching background

2005-2008: OC/QB at Florida

2009-2014: HC at Miss ST

Analysis: Well he doesn't hop around. Before 2005 he was with Urban Meyer at Utah as a QB coach. He then came with Urban to Florida after Zook was kicked to the curb. This was the era of Mullen as OC and Charlie Strong/Mattison as co-DC. He was hired at Miss St and took over in 2009. Pretty simple.

Many claim Mullen has "Midwest roots" so UM should be all over him, but where you are born has little to do with where your connections are. Mullen has been in the south for nearly a decade. His only Midwest jobs outside of a graduate assistant were 2 years at Bowling Green with ... well Urban Meyer. So if 2 years at Bowling Green 12 years ago and being born in Pennsylvania is your idea of a guy who is going to come into Ohio and Illinois and PA and kick behind on recruiting, then Mullen is your man.

Results

Caveat for results ----> (a) nothing exists in a vacuum (b) as a coordinator you can benefit or be penalized if your HC is good or bad or average (c) injuries or graduation can change your results dramatically in any 1 year. This is the type of stuff you'd research as an AD staff on every potential candidate.

I will break down his results at 2 time frames - OC at Florida, HC at Miss St.

(1) OC at Florida

It is always tough with a VERY successful head coach to determine how much impact the coordinators are having. Alex Smith was at Utah and did very well - was that due to Meyer or Mullen? Chris Leak and Tebow were at UF - was that due to Meyer and Mullen? I can't tell you how many coaches Brett Favre made rich when they said "I developed Brett Favre!" I always go in favor of the HC in these cases especially if said HC has had success with multiple coordinators. But below you see the last year of Zook (2004) and then Mullen's 4 years with first Chris Leak and then Tim Tebow.

W/L

Tot Off

Tot Def

2004

22

2005

61

2006

19

2007

14

2008

15

Zook actually had a pretty darn good offense down there at Florida but obviously Urban's spread was a different animal and there were struggles during one transition year. But then they got back to a top 20 type offense the last 3 years of Mullen's reign with 2 decorated QBs.

This was enough for Miss St to come calling with an offer

(2) HC at Miss State

Miss St is in the SEC West, at the time a 6 team division where Arkansas is up and down, Ole Miss is mediocre, Miss State is mediocre, LSU is generally good to great (once Saban arrived), and Auburn and Alabama (along with LSU) took turns being champions - at least over the last 20 years. Then A&M was added a few years back.

Mullen came in for Sylvestor Croom who actually did some good things with Miss State but fell badly in his last season and exited stage right. Here is Mullen's record and offensive and defensive rankings versus Croom's last year.

W/L

Tot Off

Tot Def

2008

4-8

113

35

2009

5-7

65

58

2010

9-4

42

49

2011

7-6

84

35

2012

8-5

79

52

2013

7-6

42

18

Croom had a horrible offense his last year at Miss St, which Mullen came in and imroved to average/meh level. From there, we see mixed results. Despite his "offensive guru" status Miss State's offense had 2 quite bad years down in the 80 range. And topped out in the 40s.

Defensively, Croom left a good defense. Mullen has basically continued that - please adjust for some very good SEC offenses which makes the results a bit better than just the raw data.

My concern here is most elite coaches will be very good on one side of the ball or the other. See MSU which focuses on defense, see Oregon which focuses on offense. Miss State is not "top end" on either - its decent to average on both offense and defense.

In terms of recruiting Miss State recruits on average rank 33 over the past 5 years. That is similar to say Michigan State/Wisconsin level. Ole Miss has beaten them soundly on the recruiting trail the past 3-4 years almost always finishing 10-20 spots better. Again with Hugh Freeze caveats.

Analysis of wins and losses

I am adding this section specifically for Mullen because of his propensity to beat baby seals and bad SEC teams and lose to good SEC teams. So basically Miss State "does what it is supposed to do". Compare that to say Harbaugh who had a doormat in Stanford but by year 3 of his era, despite a 8-5 record, rose up to kick the teeth in of some very good teams (I see you USC). I'd be more excited about Mullen if he did that - even if his record was 8-5 or 9-4 one of those wins every year was a beatdown of a top 3 SEC team. That doesn't happen. Usually when he beats a "brand name" team it is in a down year for said team.

Everyone is excited about this win vs LSU last week but LSU lost EVERY skill position player to the NFL draft last year on offense. In the first half v Wisconsin the LSU offense was a complete joke - and until Wisconsin began losing its DL, LSU was comatose. Let's see how the season turns out but I have a feeling this is more like a 8-5 LSU team then a 11-2 LSU team.

So let's review the data since it is important. In 5 years his most impressive wins were (year 1) 9-4 Ole Miss (year 2) 8-5 Florida which was 4-4 in the SEC, and (year 5) 8-5 Ole Miss and 10-4 Rice. Those are his 4 major wins in 5 years. Add this year's LSU if you'd like - we have no idea what that LSU is yet.

10.5 months ago many in the Miss St fan base wanted him out - he was 4-6 with his 4 wins: Alcorn State, Bowling Green, Troy, and 2-10 Kentucky.

Again I don't expect Miss State to beat Alabam more than once every 5 years but ... do it once. Beat an Auburn team in any year it is not 3-9. He is now 1-5 vs LSU. Even some average Houston Nutt Arkansas teams seemed to give him trouble.

This is a guy we are going to get to beat OSU and MSU? And eventually take us to the playoffs to beat - err Alabama, Auburn, A&M, LSU?

Overall

For all I know in 10 years we will look back and see Dan Mullen is the next Nick Saban. But right now I don't see a shred of evidence to support that. He has 2 wins over a good not great Ole Miss, an average Florida, and Rice as his trademark wins in 5 years. He does recruit in a hotbed area of the country and certainly he does not get the pick of the litter but his buddy at Ole Miss is recruiting circles around him. (fairly or otherwise)

He is young, makes $3.2M annually and apparently has "Midwest roots", so somehow has a "Big 10 footprint" associated with him for those 2 years at Bowling Green.

If this is a man both Florida and Michigan are going to be fighting hand and tooth over... a coach many Miss State fans wanted out of the program 11 months ago....I guess I just have a very weird way to analyze elite level success. I don't see it here.

Indeed 46 years later, "Beau Who?" might be once again an appropriate headline for the 2015 head football coach of the University of Michigan. At least I think so.

I submit to you that any new head football coach search for Michigan must include youth, energy and proven record of success. Beau Baldwin is one of the most successful college football coaches in the country right now.

Scared the shit out of Washington 52-59 in Seattle, September 6, 2014.

Offensive Philsophy:

“The idea is to tempo people and to get on people and to stay on people. But the whole philosophy of that no-huddle is to keep the defense off balance. And from there it’s nice to be able to spread people out and that’s always been my philosophy,” he added. “But you have to be balanced. You have to have the threat of both and I think that goes for any sport. To be a championship-caliber offense, you have to be balanced.”

Those who have watched the coach say he always seems so confident, so calm and so sure Eastern will slay any Goliath who gets in its way. Despite their No. 4 ranking in the FCS poll, that’s really what the Eagles were that evening in Corvallis, Ore. — a David with a coach named Beau Baldwin who calmly stalks sidelines with a disguised fearlessness he infuses into every coach and player he surrounds himself with.

“I think they just buy into that mindset, that attitude,” Baldwin said. “You have to live it, that’s what I’ll say. It’s one thing to say it in a team meeting, but as long as they see that you truly believe it then there’s no reason not to believe it. That’s when great things happen.”

Added Mario Brown, a fifth-year running back Baldwin recruited from Oakland, Calif., “It definitely carries over to the team. We’re a representation of who he is.”

Dan Quinn is currently the defensive coordinator for Pete Carroll and the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. He’s known for being flexible with scheme and looking for ways to feature the talents of his best players. Interestingly, in a 2013 article on NFL.com, Quinn and two other NFL assistants (Mel Tucker and Greg Roman) were named by anonymous NFL executives as being the most likely NFL assistants to make great college coaches.

PROBLEM IS... Quinn is one of the most highly-regarded assistants in the NFL right now, and was apparently a top candidate for the Cleveland Browns job last off-season (but the Browns hired a different coach while the Seahawks were still playing en route to the Super Bowl). He was also a finalist for the Minnesota Vikings job and reportedly considered for other NFL vacancies as well.

Congrats! You're the new head coach at the University of Michigan! It's a wonderful university with a rich academic and athletic history. The product on the field was a tire-fire in 2014, but you know that. Hopefully you're good enough at "coaching football" even if you don't know "The Victors" yet.

You should know that there are 2 parts to coaching Michigan - being a good football coach and knowing how to bullshit/placate your base. I'm hoping you're proficient at the former and that's why you're here. In terms of the latter:

You'll get asked about being a "Michigan Man". Here's how you should answer that: 'When Coach Schembechler said that "A Michigan Man should coach Michigan" he was referring to a basketball coach shopping his services. Why anyone would want to leave this great university is beyond me. I'm here because I want to be here. I'm here to help make this the greatest football program in the country and I'll put 100% into that every day. I don't know the words to The Victors yet, but I know I'll hear them after every Touchdown and Turnover, so I'll be hearing it often. My staff will start every meeting with it and we will embody everything that this great university stands for.' (If you've got a tie to Michigan history, use it here. Say you're from the same area of WV as Yost... sigh... or if you coached at Miami like Bo, or something)

You'll get asked about former players. There are some high profile ones who are varying levels of happy with the program. To them you should say: "Any former player is welcome to my office any time I'm not with the team or preparing for a game. I'm creating an "Alumni Day" every fall when we welcome back any and every former football letterman during a game, in addition to the flag football game as part of our spring game. If any former letterman wants to attend a game, give me a call. Between myself and the AD we'll get you to the games that you need to go to. If you have a legacy recruit - a son, younger brother, cousin - no questions asked they will be offered a preferred walk-on spot here at Michigan. We have to make decisions that are best for the program and if we, as a staff, have scholarships available we'd love to offer them to your legacy.

You'll get asked about wearing a headset/coaches in the booth/on the field. Say that you have to balance communicating with your players and your staff and if you ever have an issue with either you'll change your behavior.

You'll get asked if this is an elite job. Answer "Yes. Winningest program (hopefully still :-( ), The Big House, glorious history and the best damn uniforms in sports. Michigan has all the tools to be an elite program and I'll to my best to win every single game we play every year."

You'll get asked about the B1G being Big tehhhhhnnnn "The B1G has a glorious history in football, but as a conference we need to do better in our non conference slate. There's no reason why every program in this conference can't commit the resources and personnel to be the best conference in the country. We are doing that at Michigan and hope everyone else does as well."

You'll get asked about Michigan State - say that you've got all the respect in the world for them, they've been doing great recently, and that you want to beat them by 20 every year.

You'll get asked about Ohio State - say that you've got all the respect in theworld for them, they've been doing great recently, and that you want to beat them by 50 every year.

You'll get asked a bunch of other bullshit. Realize that you could go 14-0 and win every game by 20. There will be Michigan fans who are upset because you didn't win by 30, or didn't score a point-a-minute, or your QB didn't "look" right, or you weren't as angry as they remember Bo being, or you yelled to much, or because you said that Zingermans is delicious but overpriced.

Don't worry about these people.

Worry about coaching the team, keeping them healthy, punting not-like-a-dinosaur, and winning some games. I hear that fixes everything.

I've been looking at quite a few candidates for 2015 HC the past few weeks as it had become increasingly clear the Hoke is not the answer; something I think the masses have finally agreed upon after Saturday. I will post a few profiles this week in diaries on what I have found on candidates outside the normal cabal regurgitated over and over. Some candidates I have done a ton of work on - some I have done less on. All are current head coaches as I don't believe we can take a chance on someone who does not have HC experience at the NCAA level unless their name is John Harbaugh.

I am not an AD nor do I have a full time staff to focus on one of of the most important decisions over the next decade. These are superficial reports based on raw data. If I were an AD I'd be doing a lot of on the ground work on each of these people's backgrounds starting from their playing days on forward to every coaching stop.

Past results do not guarantee a damn thing. But that is all we can go on.

These are not necessarily my top candidates (read: Jim Harbaugh) but people we could get and are interesting and not "Sumlin, Shaw, Gundy redux"

I believe an elite level coach gets results within 2-3 years, by results I don't mean 11-2 but improving a bad program or maintaining a good program

W/L record is not the be all and end all - what Gary Barnett did for Northwestern is more impressive than what a lot of coaches have done at USC or Bama or Texas over the years. Spurrier went and won at Duke for example early in his career. Or just see John Beilein.

Adjust everything for conference, level of competition, and ability to get recruits

I don't care about systems - a good coach will coach up players. It's about the Jimmy and Joes not the X's and O's.

Next candidate.... Todd Graham, age: 49

Summary: Let me begin this piece by saying I have done more homework on Todd Graham than any other candidate. It is just one man's opinion but I think Graham is the most "sure thing" candidate of the group of guys that are realistically available to UM. By that I don't mean sure thing to the upside - i.e. he will get us to a playoff game in 2 years, but I mean to the downside - he will return us at minimum to the Lloyd Carr era. With potential upside from there. He can turn around a down in the dumps program, and he can sustain winning. He has multiple 10 win seasons in his HC career. Very few other candidates have shown the ability to do both on their HC resume.

Graham is seen as an offensive coach due to some crazy offensive numbers but the reality is he came up as a defensive coach. What he has been excellent at (which is a major plus for me) is finding top notch offensive minds to be his offensive coordinator. Identifying high level coordinator talent is a MAJOR help to a successful HC. Todd Graham brought in Guz Malzahn AND Chad Morris at Tulsa as OCs. One is the head coach of Auburn, the other is the OC at Clemson - both lauded for forward offensive thinking. His current man is Mike Norvell which is likewise putting up video game like numbers out at Arizona State.

There are some UM fans who dislike Graham due to his departures from earlier coaching stops. I get that and while not a "great thing" this negative is far less damning than alleged violations at Oklahoma State that Les Miles had. The same Les Miles almost everyone at UM wants if a Harbaugh is not available. He did not handle his departure from Pittsburgh well, so that's a negative. Also how he left Rice after 1 year was not ideal. Does he job hop? To a degree - so did Urban Meyer (2 years at Bowling Green, 2 years at Utah). Saban left Toledo after 1 year to go to the NFL. Young driven NCAA coaches leave jobs quickly for the next step up - I don't understand why Graham is penalized for this other than how he let his players know about it. Further he has been at one place (Tulsa) for 6 of the last 11 years

I will also show in this piece that on paper Todd Graham has just as impressive of a HC resume as everyone's hottest candidate in the country - Kevin Sumlin. Kevin Sumlin is nearly impossible to get and might be the Dallas Cowboys coach at this time next year. Meanwhile a very reasonable facsimile to Kevin Sumlin is sitting at Arizona State at a reasonable price ($2.4M) and has shown a propensity to move when a better program calls. As my caveats say you need to do a whole different level of background check on every candidate but on paper he seems like he should be a finalist for the 2015 job.

Recent (10 years) coaching background

2003-2005: DC at Tulsa

2006: HC at Rice

2007-2010: HC at Tulsa

2011: HC at Pitt

2012-2014: HC at Arizona State

Analysis: This is the one negative against Graham, he had 2 one year stints. The Rice one makes a lot of sense. He had honed his coaching skills at Tulsa, left the school to get his first HC job and then the HC job opened at Tulsa. So he went back there after being gone a year. I don't penalize someone for doing that. He had a ton of success at Tulsa in 3 of his 4 years and accepted a job at Pittsburgh. Up to that point everything was fine in his career path. He had spent 6 of the previous 7 years at 1 spot - Tulsa. For whatever reason (there are a lot of published reasons but we'll never know the truth) he decided Pitt was not for him and ASU came calling and he left. He didnt get to address his players and let them know via text message. That didn't sit well. I agree with that - not cool.

Should he not be the UM coach because he left Pitt after 1 year? That would be a stupid reason.

Next question - "if he job hops so much why would he stay at UM?" Well frankly there are not many more places to go. Once you get to UM level the only jobs you really are leaving UM for are places like Alabama or Texas. And if he is doing good enough for us to leave for Alabama in 5 years - well that probably means 1-2 playoff appearances and multiple Big 10 championships. I'll live with it. Could he go to the NFL? Sure - but he has zero NFL background. He was a successful H.S. coach before his stops at West Virginia (pre Tulsa) and Tulsa. The only guy of recent note to jump to the NFL with no contacts / playing history / position coach experience is Chip Kelly. And I'd take a 4-5 year run of Chip Kelly success if that meant losing him to the NFL.

Is he a "mercenary"? I don't see it that way - ASU is a better job than Pitt IMO. He stayed at Tulsa for 6 of 7 years - far longer than many "hot coaches" stay anywhere nowadays. These are my views - I am sure others disagree. Personally I don't care if he is a mercenary - he has never been accussed of anything worse than job hopping.

Results

Caveat for results ----> (a) nothing exists in a vacuum (b) as a coordinator you can benefit or be penalized if your HC is good or bad or average (c) injuries or graduation can change your results dramatically in any 1 year. This is the type of stuff you'd research as an AD staff on every potential candidate.

Usually I break down each coach's results in a vacuum but I am going to do something different for Graham. Both he and Sumlin coached in the Conference USA West division, overlapping 3 of the 4 years they were there - Graham at Tulsa, Sumlin at Houston. Both took over 8-5 programs. I am going to show you how their 4 year stints compared side by side - W/L, total offense, total defense. Please keep in mind Texas A&M hired Sumlin DIRECTLY after his stint at Houston. With Graham not only do you have his Tulsa resume but now we have 3 more years of data points with his background at ASU. So you have even more of a resume than Sumlin had when A&M hired him if UM goes after Graham.

Please compare these 2 charts for the 2 coaches. Please note the first row in italics of each chart is what the coach prior to Graham/Sumlin did.

Coach 1: 36-17 W/L. Three 10+ win seasons and 1 down year. Total offense ranked as Top 5 in the country 3 of the 4 years he was there. Defense was not good 2 of the 4 years, but in this type of conference anything in the 60s-70s is considered "decent".

Tot Off

Tot Def

2006

8-5

24

21

2007

10-4

1

108

2008

11-3

1

74

2009

5-7

35

85

2010

10-3

5

111

Coach 2: 36-17 W/L. Two 10+ win seasons and 1 down year. Total offense ranked as Top 5 in the country 3 of the 4 years he was there. Defense was not good for 3 of the 4 years, but in this type of conference anything in the 60s-70s is considered "decent".

Tot Off

Tot Def

2007

8-5

4

46

2008

8-5

2

100

2009

10-4

1

111

2010

5-7

11

103

2011

13-1

1

62

Can you tell which is which? Does it matter? They are nearly identical resumes for those 4 years in the Conference USA West division. I guess one is a lot more cuddly and cool.

For those who do care Coach 1 was Graham and Coach 2 was Sumlin.

Now let's look closer at Graham's career

(1) HC at Rice

After being the DC at Tulsa for 3 years, Graham left to go take over a horrid 1-10 Rice team. He only stayed 1 year because the HC job opened up at Tulsa. But he turned around the program in 1 year by 6 games. They went 7-5 and went to a bowl (where they lost) This was the FIRST BOWL for Rice since 1960. The offense improved quite dramatically while the defense was the same.

Tot Off

Tot Def

Rice

2005

1-10

84

110

2006

7-6

58

112

Now he did leave Rice in "not great circumstances" either - he had signed a contract extension with Rice after 2006 and then bolted for Tulsa. Is that "great"? No. In fact I think this is less cool than what he did at Pittsburgh due to the timing of it all. But again he went back to the school he had been with for the prior 3 years. Some may take great exception to this - understandable. But it is what it is.

(2) HC at Tulsa

As the chart above showed - he, like Sumlin, took over a solid 8-5 program. Tulsa was not a tire fire like Rice was. In these type of non Big 5 conferences you dont get great defensive talent, it is very difficult to build great defenses. But via innovation and scheme you CAN build great offenses - as both Houston and Tulsa did in that era. Sumlin took over for Art Briles at Houston and somehow got tagged as an offensive genius. Graham meanwhile is seen as "just a guy at Tulsa". Yet somehow "just a guy" identified both Gu Malzahn and Chad Morris to be OC or co-OCs in is tenure. By the way Graham beat Art Briles Houston 56-7 in his first year at Tulsa. But I digress.

I am not going to break out all 4 years of Tulsa since this post is already very long but you can see as a whole Graham had lights out offenses, 2 years of "ok" defense and 2 years of "quite bad" defense. Which in Conference USA is enough to get you double digit wins.

Key games for Tulsa during Graham's 4 yr stint:

Year 1: beat eventual #14 11-2 BYU 55-47

Year 1: beat Art Briles 8-5 Houston 56-7

Year 1: beat 8-5 Bowling Green in a bowl 63-7

Year 1 losses were to eventual #8 Oklahoma, 10-4 conference champion UCF (twice), and a loss to a bad UTEP team

Year 2: no lights out wins but losses were to Arkansas, Sumlin's Houston and 9-5 East Carolina

Year 2 fun stat: Scored 35+ in all 11 wins. Scored over 45 pts in 9 of the 11 wins.

Year 3 was a struggle - maybe a QB graduation, who knows but still only lost to Sumlin's 10-4 Houstin 46-45. Lost to eventual #4 undefeated Boise State 28-21.

Year 4: beat Brian Kelly's 8-5 ND in South Bend 28-27

Year 4: beat Kevin Sumlin's down year Houston 28-25

Year 4: beat 10-4 Hawaii in a bowl 62-35

Year 4: Lost 51-49 to East Carolina, lost 65-28 to eventual #13 Oklahoma State, lost 21-18 to June Jones 7-7 SMU. So 5 pts away from a 13-1 season.

(3) HC at Pitt

So at this point, 4 years at Tulsa, you have done all you can do and had a ream of success. It was at this point in his HC career that A&M came calling for Sumlin. Pitt came calling for Graham. So it's a logical time to move on.

Things at Pitt never worked out - there was no big turnaround at Pitt in 2011. The losses were by and large not horrid - 4 pts to Iowa, 3 pts to Notre Dame, 1 pt to West Virginia, 3 pts to Butch Jones's Cincinnati. So if 2 or 3 of those game swing another way the W/L wouldve been fine. The offense and defense stats both fell back from the prior regime. All in all a meh season; 1st years can be like that.

2010

8-5

72

8

Pitt

2011

6-7

88

35

Won't rehash how he left. It was not a great thing and he was scorned nationally. Off to ASU he went.

(4) HC at ASU

ASU had been lingering in malaise after a half decade under Dennis Erickson. Erickson did well in year 1, then turned very mediocre the following 4 years: 5-7, 4-8, 6-6 type of stuff. Here are the metrics of Graham's first 2 seasons versus Erickson's last. Unlike Pitt this turned out pretty darn well - and fast. Retained good offense stats with a big improvement in defensive stats. And of course the record improved.

Tot Off

Tot Def

2011

6-7

25

91

ASU

2012

8-5

25

27

2013

10-4

32

42

Quick overview of both years:

2012 - the wins were against teams that made sense - average to bad teams. Beat a couple of 8-5 teams like Rich Rod's Arizona, and Navy. There were 5 losses but again first year transition and the teams he lost to by and large to "made sense". He lost 24-20 to a meh Missouri (@Missouri) in game 3 of his regime. Lost to eventual #2 Oregon, eventual #19 Oregon State, Jim Mora's 9-5 UCLA, Lane Kiffin's 7-5 USC. This was a very "Rich Rod" 2010 type of record IMO but with a way better defense.

2013 - the 4 losses were again legit. Lost to eventual #11 Stanford (the team MSU beat in the Rose) twice, lost to eventual #20 ND on neutral site by 3 pts, and lost to an ok Texas Tech team in a bowl. Wins came versus ranked teams such as #20 Wisconsin, #19 USC (the loss that cost Kiffin his job), #25 Washinton (Sark), #16 UCLA. That is 4 wins versus teams that were ranked in the top 25 by the end of the year - not bad. Crushed Rich Rod's Arizona along with the average to bad Pac 12 teams - Utah, Washington State, Oregon State, etc

2014 - a word about this year before we move on. This is where the homework has to be done. I think 2014 will be a tough year for ASU. They lost 9 of their 11 starters from the 2013 defense to graduation. Versus UCLA last week they STARTED 3 true freshmen. They dont recruit Jabrill Peppers players, or even Bryan Mone. It would be like throwing our three of our 3/4 star type players and installing them in our starting defense. Nevermind the 2 deep - so imagine Ferns, Lawrence Marshall and Brandon Watson starting - along with 6 other new starters. That is the ASU defense this year - they are doomed.

ASU will need to outgun teams to win any games this year versus quality opponents. Graham developed a 2 star QB (whose only other offer was Nevada) named Taylor Kelly into one of the Pac 12s best QBs. But then he got hurt. Graham put in his backup, and they still got OVER 600 yards of total offense vs UCLA. Imagine that. Unfortunately they also had 4 turnovers and gave up a 80 yard kickoff return for a TD. So it was a junky game and I think this year will be a struggle for ASU, especially on defense.

Sidenote

One last comparison versus Sumlin. Sumlin now has A&M talent. He inherited Manziel who was a solid recruit with offers from places like Oregon. Graham inherited a 2 star nobody. A&M's average class ranking from 2008-2012 was 19, Arizona State's is 37. Which is below where Wisconsin normally recruits to put it in Big 10 perspective. So Graham taking that talent and competing with Oregon, Stanford, USC, and UCLA is pretty darn good. Here is how Sumlin has done in his first 2 years at A&M versus the prior coach - again with Johnny Manziel as his QB.

Tot Off

Tot Def

A&M

2011

7-6

7

59

2012

11-2

3

57

2013

9-4

4

109

The offense is off the charts under Sumlin but it WAS offf the charts in 2011 as well before he got there. And the defense did not improve ...it stayed flat in 2012 and then fell off a clifff in 2013.

This comparison is not here to say Sumlin sucks. It is to compare and contrast the metrics versus Graham. Graham compares favorably at both peer groups (Tulsa v Houston) and (ASU v A&M). It is more difficult to compare ASU and A&M obviously since A&M is in a tougher division and has better recruits. But adjusting for these factors I see 2 very good coaches - one nationally lauded as one of the hottest coaches in America, the other doing a good job at ASU but not getting nearly the credit.

Overall

I really like what Todd Graham does from a football perspective. He just wins. And it doesnt take him 4 years to do it. He doesnt have any sanctions or dirty laundry behind him - his fault is he does leave jobs in a bad manner. But I dont see many other stops for him left to go after UM (if hired) other than the NFL, which again he has zero background in. His recruiting footprint is an issue but he has deep Texas ties (fertile ground) and as I've said for other candidates who are not from the Midwest, you hire 1 coordinator and 2-3 position coaches who know the HS coaches of Ohio, Illinois, Michigan. He does have some tiny exposure to the Midwest with his Pitt stop. And how has some West coast exposure - obviously CA is another hotbed.

To me you can get a Brian Kelly/Kevin Sumlin type coach at a reasonable cost - Graham makes $2.4M. For Graham $4M would be a huge jump and he'd have access to the type of recruits he has never had. ASU recruiting ranking is near 40, while UM's has been around 14 for the past 5-6 years. I also think with the issues ASU is going to have on defense this year he won't be a "hot commodity" by the end of this year for those who only look at superficial records - ASU might be a 7-5 team this year for specific reasons related to defense. But you can see when he is not breaking in 9 new starters, including 3 true freshmen on defense he had solid defenses at ASU. I believe I read he sent 4 players to the NFL off the defense last year. Anyone doing a serious coaching search should be able to identify those reasons and look at the bigger picture.

In terms of availability, price, track record and "putting a floor under UM football" (i.e. I don't think we'd do worse than 8-4 seasons with this coach), Graham shold be one of the leading candidates.