The Future Of TV Is Coming, Slowly But Surely

Like every other form of media, television stands to be
profoundly changed once software and the Internet play a more
important role. It has taken longer to be transformed than for
other media, such as newspapers and music. But slowly, surely, it
is happening.

Here, we'll outline some of the changes to expect over the next
ten years or so, and some companies to watch in each field.

Content and Programming

Long-form shows and linear TV will continue to exist for a long
time. But consumption
habits will continue to change. More will be watched
on-demand and via time-shifting. This, plus different viewing
devices and advertising capabilities, will lead to more
short-form "pro" content. (Also, why should a news show be
exactly 30 minutes every day? How about 15 minutes on slow news
days and 50 minutes if a lot is happening?)

Eventually, things like channel numbers will go away. Networks
will emerge, merge, and fold. Someday, your search bar may be
your channel guide. But that's going to take a while.

Today, most Americans pay for TV service from a cable or
satellite company. If the TV industry can make the right moves,
that will continue indefinitely. But the Internet is starting to
disrupt this, as more shows and live feeds are available through
streaming services.

Where it
gets interesting is that the companies that currently provide TV
service also are the ones that own the fastest broadband pipes
into your home — Comcast,
Verizon,
and the like. So they are unlikely to go away — they just might
have to change their business model to charge more for Internet
access, as fewer people pay for TV service and as bandwidth
demand grows. (They will also continue to try to develop web and
mobile services of their own, to convince people to continue
paying for TV service with more value.) One interesting
trend will be to see what the satellite companies — which
don't have a broadband pipe into your living room — end
up doing.

One misplaced assumption is that TV is necessarily going to get
cheaper as more streaming is available. Sure, you may end up
picking fewer "channels" or services to subscribe to, but you
might also have to pay more for them, or at least spend more on
Internet access to stream all that video.

The cable guys will also try to force their content partners into
schemes where you can only access certain streaming programming
if you prove that you're a cable subscriber. This
"authentication" concept is called "TV Everywhere," and you'll
probably see more of it soon.

One of the things that ought to change the most about the TV
experience over the next decade is the software running on TVs
and the interface that people use to control it. Today's TVs
remind us of the smartphone industry before Apple
flipped it upside-down with the iPhone.
Your TV is really just a computer with a really big screen. But
the industry has been slow to treat it that way, because today's
TV makers are generally lousy at software.

Software stands to change TVs profoundly, giving users more
powerful ways to find shows, watch them how and where they want,
and obtain them from different sources. It could allow you to
control your TV with your voice, hand gestures, or a device like
your iPad. It
could make "social TV" a reality. It could make every TV a casual
game console.

The challenge here is that TVs are expensive and people don't
replace them very often. (Unlike phones or even PCs.) So whatever
progress happens here will likely be slow. Key developments could
include a potential Apple television set, and whatever success
Google has
with Google
TV and/or Android.
Also keep an eye out for any possible success with 3D — though
we're skeptical — or even higher resolution TVs sometime
in the next decade.

It's still the largest chunk of the ad market, and still begging
for disruption.

While some companies — notably Google — are trying to bring
Internet-like characteristics to TV advertising, it's still in
the early going. Expect to see more developments around
targeting, measurement, interactive and rich media,
algorithm-based placements, and "closing the loop" via new
commerce techniques.