It’s a pretty safe bet that, when it comes time for David Stern to announce the No. 1 pick in this June’s draft, he will say Kentucky forward Nerlens Noel, rehabbing knee and all. If it’s not Noel, the most likely choice is Kansas guard Ben McLemore, despite his penchant for shying away in big games.

Still, around the league, there is a sense that the top pick in this draft is as open a question as it has been in recent years, and that the player who shakes out on top depends largely on how Tuesday’s draft lottery turns out. No matter which team wins, they will cast a wide net for that top pick, unlike in past years when teams holding the No. 1 pick only worked out two or three players, tops.

Much will depend on team needs, and even with that, there will be chances for darkhorse players to slide into that top spot. Here’s how the teams stack up heading into Tuesday:

Desperate times

Orlando

Odds: 25.0 percent

Needs: Point guard, power forward

Good for: Noel. The Magic have depth on the wings (Arron Afflalo, Tobias Harris) and though there are plenty of bigs on the roster, a defensive stopper and rim-protector like Noel is a need.

Darkhorse: Trey Burke. A Magic win creates an interesting situation—they could make the safe play and take Noel, but the team desperately needs a young point guard who can take over for Jameer Nelson, who is 31 and has struggled with injuries. Burke is not a pure point guard, but he is a leader who can change the direction of the franchise.

Charlotte

Odds: 19.9 percent

Needs: Shooting, size

Good for: Noel. Every position on the roster could stand an upgrade. The backcourt of Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson isn’t really of NBA starter quality, but it is the most settled part of the roster, and with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going with the second pick last year, the Bobcats are going to look for size. Noel is the safety pick, and the correct one for a team that has ranked 30th in defensive efficiency the past two years.

Darkhorse: McLemore. As bad as the Bobcats’ defense has been, consider this: They’ve not ranked higher than 24th in offensive efficiency in franchise history. If McLemore is the scorer some scouts say he is, he’s got to be considered.

Cleveland

Odds: 15.6 percent

Needs: Both forwards

Good for: Noel. Anderson Varejao could be traded this summer, and though the Cavs have Tristan Thompson at power forward, they could use a defensive presence like Noel, even if he had to play out of position at center.

Darkhorse: Otto Porter. The most glaring need on this roster is at small forward, where the Cavs need an option to play alongside the backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters—Alonzo Gee was the starter at the 3 this year, and that needs to be rectified. If the Cavs determine Anthony Bennett can play small forward, he’d be an option, too.

Phoenix

Odds: 11.9 percent

Needs: Everything but point guard

Good for: McLemore. The Suns signed Goran Dragic and drafted Kendall Marshall last year, so point guard is taken care of. With Marcin Gortat as possible trade bait and Luis Scola now 33, the Suns could certainly go big, but they tried to sign shooting guard Eric Gordon last year, and if they get a crack at McLemore—whom some consider the best scorer in the draft—he probably would be the pick.

Darkhorse: Cody Zeller. Zeller tested well in Chicago, and if you’re looking for a big guy who can score and defend, Zeller is the best available. Alex Len would have to be considered, too.

Fingers crossed

New Orleans

Odds: 8.8 percent

Needs: Point guard, small forward, scoring

Good for: McLemore. The Pelicans will probably test the market for Eric Gordon this summer, giving McLemore the chance to shine right away.

Darkhorse: Porter. Al-Farouq Aminu showed his defensive prowess, but they need some offense from this spot.

Sacramento

Odds: 6.3 percent

Needs: Power forward, point guard, wings

Good for: Noel. This is a roster without much direction, and even the two top commodities—DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans—have dodgy futures. Jason Thompson is better suited for a bench role and could be trade bait, making Noel the easy pick.

Darkhorse: Burke. Isaiah Thomas has been a pleasant surprise, but he probably shouldn’t be the starter.

Detroit

Odds: 3.6 percent

Needs: Point guard, wing scorers

Good for: McLemore. Neither Brandon Knight nor Rodney Stuckey is a pure point guard, but one of them would have to fake it to make room for McLemore.

Darkhorse: Burke. Take the local guy, move Knight and Stuckey off the ball, perhaps even re-sign Jose Calderon.

Washington

Odds: 3.5 percent

Needs: Small forward

Good for: Porter. The Wizards could go big, with Emeka Okafor slated to come off the books next summer. But small forward is their most glaring hole.

Darkhorse: Anthony Bennett. If power forward will be a need, why not go for the combo forward?

Dumb luck

Minnesota

Odds: 1.7 percent

Needs: Shooting guard

Good for: McLemore. The Wolves could use a shooting guard, especially now that the Brandon Roy gamble failed.

Darkhorse: Victor Oladipo. Oladipo as a No. 1 pick is a stretch, but his defense is a known commodity.

Portland

Odds: 1.1 percent

Needs: Center, depth

Good for: Noel. The Blazers could have some reservations about using the top pick on a guy with knee issues, for obvious reasons. But a frontcourt mate for LaMarcus Aldridge is a need.

Darkhorse: McLemore. The bench was terrible this year. They’ll take the best player they can get.

Philadelphia

Odds: 0.8 percent

Needs: Big man, shooting guard

Good for: McLemore. The Sixers have a lot to figure out, starting with the future of injured center Andrew Bynum. McLemore would be a fairly safe bet for them.

Darkhorse: Noel. If they’re giving up on Bynum, go for Noel.

Oklahoma City

Odds: 0.7 percent

Needs: Center

Good for: Noel. The Thunder’s frontcourt backups were Nick Collison (who will be 33 in October) and Hasheem Thabeet.

Darkhorse: Zeller. If OKC wants a guy who can give some offense behind Kendrick Perkins, Zeller is an option.

Dallas

Odds: 0.6 percent

Needs: Dirk Nowitzki help

Good for: Burke. It’s conceivable that the Mavs will bring almost no one back from last year’s team, leaving holes at every spot. But point guard is the biggest problem.

Darkhorse: Oladipo. Again, a longshot. But Nowitzki needs help now, and Oladipo’s defense is NBA-quality.

Utah

Odds: 0.5 percent

Needs: Point guard

Good for: Burke. The Jazz have young wings and big men, but no one to bring the roster together.

Darkhorse: Michael Carter-Williams. A longshot, but as the draft’s best playmaker, he could help guys like Alec Burks and Enes Kanter develop.