Friday, June 8, 2012

Summer Break Time! Columbus Crew Style!

(David Burgin and I worked on this post to put together thoughts, stats and other musings about the Crew to date on where the team is and can where it can go from here. Unless otherwise noted, everything below was framed up and written by Mr. Burgin; writer, poet and blogger over at Global Football Today, Columbus Crew.)

Warning! This post is long...really, really long. If your eyes tend to cross after only a few minutes of reading standard font on a computer screen, this blog entry is not for you. If tedious comparative and statistical breakdowns of sports teams bore you to tears, this blog entry is not for you. If paragraph after paragraph of desensitizing information and brilliantly detailed facts, make you break out in hives, this blog entry is not for you.

If you do not fall into one of the above categories, this blog entry and the entire genius hypothesis contained in it should excite your frontal cortex like pictures of vanilla ice cream on top of a mound of brownies surrounded by your favorite candy bars, all dripping with caramel, chocolate sauce and whipped cream.

This blog entry contains delicious, dessert like, irrefutable statistical analysis of The Crew team and its players. (Provided by Billy Sasquatch of Helltown Beer fame. Billy knows which end is up. Read his stuff, you’ll instantly be smarter) This blog entry also contains a detailed theoretical breakdown of the current Columbus Crew players; where they are most valuable on the pitch; what players work best together; what players don’t mesh, and much, much more. Read on, and be amazed!

(paragraphs in (parentheses) are comments added by Billy Sasquatch specifically for this blog entry, and in response to David Burgin’s comments.)

#paragraphs between #pound signs# are comments added by David Burgin specifically for this blog entry, and in response to Billy’s comments.#

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Let’s begin your journey with a quick breakdown of The Crew 2012 season so far. Things did not start well for Columbus. The first game was @Colorado and culminated in a 2-0 loss.

(Crew are respected for never getting to high or too low. Just read some comments Warzycha made, half jokingly, about Poland in the Euro’s. 2-0 wins all the way to the title he said. Polish to the end. 2 goal diff might as well be 1000 goal diff. This attitude is something we may appreciate years after he is gone. Time will tell. That said; a 3 goal loss to a Pole coach is a game changer. Line ups changed after this one for sure.)

(This Vancouver game might end up defining the season. Maybe it was the last straw with the players and they kicked it into gear or maybe the Crew will settle back into a team that just spins its wheels like in this game. Crew haven’t lost since then - but Warzycha teams always do well at this point in the season (summer). Last year the team used the month of June climbing to the top and in July battled PHI for the top spot. August 2011 was spent at the top of the East. I’ve charted the last 4 years and noticed the same trend. Slow start; dominate middle, horrible decline at the end of the season. Training? Attitude from ownership?)

On to game eight. The Crew travel to Portland to play the Timbers on their tiny plastic, hard to type this, soccer field. Final, 0-0.

Billy shreds the numbers once again, finding something The Crew front office would like to see buried like the second shooter in Dallas.

(This Portland game was the first “real” game for the athletically gifted Josh Williams. He had to grind this one as opposed his first 2 league starts where he was doing bicycle kicks, kicking ad boards in frustration, cursing and nearly missing goal bound flying headers. In Portland, he was on the west coast. Big crowd; yet, he physically handled Boyd. Pushing him, holding him, even tackling him. It was awesome. I think the other 2011 reserve players started to take notice too. Meram and Grossman in particular. Gehrig had already been putting in shifts but he seemed to latch on as well.)

# I played for a few years in the Columbus Premier League with a wonderful player by the name of Miklos Jalics. “Mickey” as he is fondly called, played his college ball at Akron. He made it to an NCAA title game against Duke, I believe in 1989. Mickey had the same effect that Billy attributes to Josh Williams. If you played with Mickey, his energy and commitment were palpable. Every team needs someone whose enthusiasm is viral. I hope Mickey is alright with me mentioning him. #

Game 9: The Crew host Dallas. Goals and points clearly the breath of fresh air The Columbus Crew needed in this 2-1 victory.

Mr. Sasquatch drives home how important this game was to both Hunt Sport's Group teams.

On to game eleven. The Crew continue their trip on the West coast with a visit to Seattle. Two Crew goals later, and zero Sounders goals, and Columbus returns home with 4 hard earned points.
Helltown Beer has this to say.

After the quick, and sometimes painful, re-hash of the Columbus Crew’s first twelve games of 2012, I give you the intricate, multivariate theory detailing where each Crew player should be playing, and what combination of players works best.

The simple premise behind this entire post; soccer is about scoring goals, and not giving up goals. The incredibly complicated part of soccer is how you go about building a team which does the scoring, and keeps the ball out of its own net. You will notice throughout this mind numbingly long treatise that I am not a fan of the zero sum approach which puts the manager and his tactics first in line of importance. Every player is unique. Celebrating the individual personality, while melding the eleven unique variables that are any given soccer team’s players, is the stuff of both dreams and nightmares. I firmly believe that, in soccer, you don’t have to have the best, fastest, smartest and most agile players to win. In other words, properly deployed, the sum of the unique variables can be greater than eleven.

(Bending players to fit a singular mold is dangerous. It also can send you to Costa Rica and Venezuela looking for players.)

(Not to get side tracked here but… A couple months ago I pulled every MLS players hometown. Grouped them into regions and countries, etc… just to prove that the Crew could recruit within Ohio and adjacent states and not have to rely on “tape” or other player’s word of mouth. I thought that the players the mid west region produced was enough to make a top MLS club (at least competitive playoff team) and would reduce cost and drain on resources. I was ready to nail Brian Bliss to the wall for his DP travels and such… Turns out Ohio and the mid-west do have more than enough good players, yes… and the Crew are recruiting them to play at a higher rate then any other team. Around 10% of the Crew is from this area. 58 of 540 players in MLS are from Ohio and adjacent states. Columbus has 7 of them, most in the league. Columbus carries more players from the USA than any other as well (73%). Could Columbus field a top team with only Mid-westerners and win the league? Yes, but they are doing a good job here already. Patriotic side track -over!)

I will start with two young Crew players that Billy Sasquatch and I routinely see in a positive light, Justin Meram and Bernardo Anor. Mr. Sasquatch has, on more than one occasion, shown with his Helltown statistical analysis, HERE that these two get the job done. When they are on the field the Crew’s goal differential is excellent, and the win, lose, draw metric is very positive.

(Glad I’m not alone on Anor. I feel like he is one of the real ‘footballers’ on the team as in, the game is part of him. The other Central South Americans have ‘it’ as well, but I feel like Anor is almost in his own world out there. I’ve seen him live a bunch this year but I was able to sit down close during the Dayton game. Every crew player was pressing so hard all game. Anor comes in late (could have been fresh legs, but I’d seen it from afar before) and just makes the Dayton players look silly. It was comical the way he worked around them.)

(There is something about Anor that works when he starts. Not sure if it is that the other players like him, or trust him, or what. But, starting him works. He’s been successful over both years with 5 wins in 9 games started and a +3 Goal Diff. The other players around him in games started are: Tchani: 1 win in 7 games started, Mirosevic: 3 wins, 10 games started, Gehrig: 3 wins, 10 games started, Francis 3 wins, 10 games. All of those guys also have negative goal differential.)

(Meram is off to a similar start as well. Positive numbers when he starts. Same could be said for Vukovic and Williams. Great starts, in the hardest way possible, on the road against excellent sides).

Meram and Anor are a fascinating glimpse into the heart of the beautiful game. When Meram is slotted into an attacking wing position he shines. He sees the field well from there, he knows when to attack with the ball on his foot, and when to back off and distribute to support. Like Meram, Anor is still sometimes raw in his approach to the game, but when Bernardo is patrolling the left flank in support of Meram the two click. Here is why, I think, this is true.

(Meram has the right kind of attacking mentality. Find space with out the ball and create space with it. Anor is able to locate players in space. Both are creative thinkers (a trait not valued in MLS. At all.)

Meram can effectively get behind defenders, but is becoming adept at recognizing when not to be direct. Anor is best when asked to keep the flow of the game going. Bernardo plays one and two touch quickly and smartly. Meram recognizes when to drop back and help defensively, or when to drop back and become an outlet for a teammate under pressure. The two, when encountering a packed midfield, will link with smart central midfield partners and make the opponent chase before finding the long switch or safely laying off to a Crew central defender. Lastly, Anor is aware of when to pinch in and allow a player like Nemanja Vukovic the room to overlap.
What hinders this pair’s dynamic interplay? A forward who holds too long, or a forward who dribbles too much. Also, when the Crew central midfield outruns the space they should be in, repeatedly, the result is a breakdown in the form of the team, and often the wing becomes crowded and ineffective.

The next pairing I will sight is Eddie Gaven and Dilly Duka. Gaven and Duka are the mirror image of Anor and Meram. All things said above are also true of these two. While Duka has seen his cumulative numbers tumble to embarrassing lows, again, see Billy’s table.

(I’m struggling with Duka’s numbers. A lot of my training and mentoring in manufacturing (which is a performance based business like sports) was by a mathematical engineer who learned her trade in the Rolls Royce Aircraft division. I’ve spent countless hours of my life trying to qualify and quantify outlying data like Duka’s. Countless “deep dives” and power point presentations that lead nowhere. Duka has talent but it is just plain strange that he’s had such bad results when starting. Usually when I see data like this it comes down to “soft skills” or the way someone fits into the culture. Things not quantifiable with measurements.)

(The team needs him healthy. I’ll leave it at that for now.)

I believe it is because he has been played, consistently, out of position. He has primarily been played as a wing midfielder, or central midfielder. Dilly is most effective in the same attacking wing role in which Meram thrives. Eddie Gaven is Eddie Gaven. He can play anywhere on the field, but when paired with a player like Duka, Eddie is in his comfort zone. Combine these two Crew players on the opposite side of the field from Meram and Anor and the Crew become a very dangerous, two sided team.

Important note: Meram and Duka are the type of players who work well together when in advanced positions, not so much when in midfield. Gaven and Anor are the consummate facilitators. Thus, the reason they pair so well with players like Meram and Duka who have a little more, shall we say, attitude.

Offensively, the two pairings above, although only seen a handful of times so far this season, have constituted the most obvious and fluid options for the Crew attack. But, let’s move on and see what central midfield partnership is best, and more importantly, which central midfield partnership gels best with our wing pairings.

The middle of The Columbus Crew has been unsettled most of the season. Milovan Mirosevic, Kirk Urso, Danny O’Rourke, Tony Tchani, Cole Grossman, newly added Chris Birchall and surprisingly competent, Kevan George have all taken to the middle of the field for Robert Warzycha.

I’ll start with Mirosevic. The new man from Chile has been struggling to fit in with Columbus. What is his role? Who should partner the veteran national teamer? To this point in the season I believe the dilemma for Milovan results from the interplay displayed by the Crew as a whole; not in the search for individual purpose. The realization that the tandem wing components (Anor/Meram and Gaven/Duka) are emerging quickly, should allow Mirosevic to fold himself into the fabric of the team given the correct partner. When healthy, Milovan Mirosevic should be starting.

(Mirosevic is a really good soccer player that has been thrown head first into a violent league. I think he even took on some MLS traits and it lead to injury (too much sprinting and going to ground). A limited scope in back would help him relax and release his talent (sort of like letting a freshly poured stout settle in a pint glass) and allow him to get up top when he wants and not when he’s forced.)

#Mmm, freshly poured stout, patience and a bar stool.#

Now, who partners Mirosevic? First, whoever it is must help create a compelling and influential unit in the middle of the park. Perhaps just as important, the central tandem must be compatible with a team whose attack swings from side to side and seeks to break down the opposing team’s outside backs more often than charging up the middle or throwing crosses into the penalty area repeatedly.

Danny O’Rourke has made a case to be allied with Milovan. Danny, a player I have criticized on more than one occasion, has the experience of playing on the best ever Crew team (something I will use later to bring home some of the points in this post). Danny does not try to do too much. He is strong in the tackle, and consistent with his passing, when in form. The drawbacks to playing Danny as first choice: O’Rourke is injury prone, not a good thing when talking about the heart of your team. He has also lost a step. For now I say Danny is the guy to come on when needed, but not start.

(Durability is turning into the Crew’s most valued, yet rare, mineral.)

Kirk Urso. I will only say that Urso will someday be a quality defensive mid, but today is not the day.

(He’s got impressive power and control on free kicks but that’s about it for now… which makes him the Charlie Adam of the Crew… or something.)

Tony Tchani. Tony is an enigma, wrapped in a Douglas Adam’s book. He began the season looking like an amateur player. His play of late looks much more like the Tony Tchani the Crew thought they were getting when they made the trade for him with Toronto. The reason I would not pick Tony to partner in the starting eleven with Milovan is his penchant for holding a beat too long and the odd inability to read what he is up to.

(I’ll be watching Adam’s Monty Python scripted skits till 2 am.)

#Douglas Adams AND Monty Python, can you say overdose of irreverent British humor?#

(I would like Tchani to even out on his own but I think Warzycha has made it his mission to coach this kid’s head right. That’s a good thing but as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of other players (ie. Ignoring other players to “fix” talented Tchani).)

(Salary note on both former Generation Adidas players that the Crew have… Duka and Tchani’s “base salaries” are $100k+! less than guaranteed salary. Not sure how the Crew worked this but it tells me that they require performance from these guys. Duka’s guaranteed salary of 233k puts him only behind Marshall on the team, yet his base is 9th highest. Same with Tchani. 4th highest in guaranteed (performance based) yet 11th in base. In a lot of ways it seems like GA players are set up to fail. Crew have set these 2 players up in a way that forces them to prove themselves. No two guys on the team probably have more pressure on them this year.)

(On another financial note. Did you know that Olman Vargas’ 170k salary is 85,765,024.01 Costa Rican Colónes? It is a very big deal for Vargas to be here (on a personal level). Also, the Crew overpay for players in Central and South America. Bliss could put a healthy Ben Speas up top and pay him 40k and he would have more than one goal.)

#Something to look into: Do the Crew have to play Duka and Tchani if healthy? What I mean is, if they don’t play, and therefore cannot prove their worth, do their guarantees kick in because of NOT being played? I know, sounds counter intuitive, but makes some sense when you think about it. Would be awful in a team sense, but logical for the individual.#

Chris Birchall, added only a couple weeks ago to the Crew roster, has the experience. He has the tenacity, but I have not seen enough of him to make a call one way or the other.

(I am partial to any English player, especially one from Staffordshire (mother is from Northamptonshire). Would like to see him get in shape. He’s “chuffy” right now.)

#While I did not see the Open Cup match, I have read accounts saying Birchall was “all over the place, and shooting from distance.” If true, this kind of central midfield play would be harmful to the “style” The Crew have begun to show. If this is just a hiccup, no problems.#

Cole Grossman is intriguing. He adds a different approach to any midfield he steps into. He makes the direct pass, and gets into the opposing team’s box smoothly.

After all those choices, and some of them may be a good tandem in their own right, I would go with the little used, but silky smooth Kevan George. George reminds me a tad bit of Keita at Barcelona. He is unselfish, rarely makes a bad pass, doesn’t over run the game, and he seems to make the players around him better. Throw in the fact that he tackles almost effortlessly and you have the perfect partner, not only for Mirosevic, but for The Crew’s dynamic wing duos.

Milovan Mirosevic and Kevan George would fit snugly between the Crew wings. Both players bring an honest approach to the game. They both see the field well; even under pressure, and they both are very efficient when transitioning possession from the back and side to the front and opposite wing.

(I can’t make heads or tails of Kevan yet. I’d like to see him with Mirosevic in over 90 mins. His play with Grossman has been unassumingly good. But that could be Grossman playing understated minutes. We might have to call in Douglas Adams on Grossman as well.)

If you are paying attention, you will have realized that I have proposed somewhat of a unique formation. If I choose to add an out and out striker there is only room for three backs. If I choose to play without an out and out striker, then Meram and Duka are my forwards, and I can go four in the back. Robert Warzycha clearly prefers four in the back.

I would choose Meram and Duka as my forwards. I do this, simply because they mesh with the overall structure of what I see as the most effective attacking unit The Crew can field. The defensive four of Williams, James, Vukovic and Miranda stays in tact. Gehrig, Francis, Marshall (if healthy), O’Rourke, and others can fill in for the starting back four. The starting back four have proven, both last year and this year, to be solid under pressure, able to step into attack and capable of helping to direct play when needed.

Up top, and in midfield there is a growing list of options to back up the starting six. New man, Arrieta, can replace either Meram or Duka when needed. Emilio Renteria, less than suited to this formation and style of play, should be able to adapt. The plethora of decent choices in the middle can fill in for Mirosevic or George when needed. Outside mid is thinnest, but Francis can play on the left and Tchani can play on the right if need be.

(Going over the top here, but it is Euro time… This formation is something I’ve seen with England national side recently. Lots of general soccer savvy and attacking box to box mids makes them heavy up top. Meram has the skill of a smart mid but the will of an attacking talent. Maybe Gaven, Anor, Duka making box to box decisions, while dangerous, is a good thing. I think they have it in them, especially with Mirosevic and O’Rourke (or Kevan, Gehrig, et al) playing behind them. Allowing Meram the freedom up top with creative Anor, Duka and Mr. Gaven deciding when to advance? Cooouuullld work. Thinking on that. This formation can work in MLS.)

#Count me in the group that does not like one man up top. If the pairings mentioned above are fruitful, I see a lot more possession in The Crew’s future; another of the reasons I pick Kevan George to partner Mirosevic. Unlike other sports, offense in soccer can be what wins championships. By that I mean: If I have the ball you cannot score. Defense thru offense, that, I like!#

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Now, I mentioned the 2008 team a few paragraphs back. Why is the 2008 team important to the current squad and my take on who works best together? Let’s take a look at Frankie, Schelotto and the boys.

While the 2008 team played with Alejandro Moreno up top and Barros Schelotto sideline to sideline behind Alejandro, that partnership and the partnerships in other areas of the field were not forced, and remind us that finding good combinations throughout a soccer team is the quickest route to success. Brian Carroll, Brad Evans and Adam Moffat rotated in the middle behind Schelotto, and any two of the three formed a potent defensive midfield. Eddie Gaven and Frankie Hejduk ruled on the right side. Gino Padula and Robbie Rogers was an odd pair on the left, but they somehow clicked. The team as a whole was able to mesh the different pairings into a cohesive whole.

(2008 is where I will defer to you. I’m taking the time to research, data mine and watch but wasn’t as close to the team then, but I’m learning. I’ve been casually following since I moved to Ohio in 2006. It wasn’t till the club started making noteworthy moves in 2010 that I decided to dig in. Loving every minute. However, on the 2008 team… I do know enough to say: Could we have Carroll, Evans and Moffat back please? Or at least parts of them? Carroll’s winning and consistency, Evans comfort -- Moffat’s attitude and foot? All I ask.)

#You ask so little. The soccer gods should be accommodating.#

The 2012 version of the Columbus Crew is very much different from the Major League Soccer, 2008 Champions. The 2012 Crew does not have a Moreno to plug in up top. The 2012 Crew also does not have Barros Schelotto to conjure the dangerous chances any successful team must have to win consistently.

Interestingly, after all the changes Robert Warzycha and Brian Bliss have made to The Crew roster since the championship year, the 2012 Black and Gold do look to possess some of the same difficult to find traits that the 2008 version of the Crew possessed. The two teams are built to play the game differently; 2012’s team has players who can score goals, but the current squad’s goals come from build up to the wings, and then keeping the ball on the ground while patiently finding the weakness' in their opponent's defensive scheme. The 2008 team countered quickly and efficiently to score many of their goals. The two teams approach the game differently, but both teams use good understanding between teammates to make the chances appear.

That trait, that one trait, understanding, is the common factor in any winning teams make-up. In other words, properly deployed, the sum of the unique variables can be greater than eleven.

I hope you enjoyed this look back at the first third of The Crew's 2012 season, and the musings of both myself and Billy Sasquatch.

There is still two thirds of The Major League soccer season left. The Crew still have it all to do...

Cheers!

------------------------------- (Special thanks again go to Mr. Burgin. It was his idea and he did most of the heavy lifting. Check out Global Football Today Crew blog, must read for anyone who likes following the Team)