Bird flu precautions vital, seminar told

By Suzanne Nam

30 June 2006 12:50

Thousands sick and dying in the streets, power and water barely functioning, even martial law; this bleak picture of the future is one the business community is becoming more willing to accept as a possibility if the H5N1 avian flu virus, commonly known as bird flu, mutates into a form easily transmitted among people.

It is not a matter of if, just of when, where and how severe, said Dr Somrat Yindepit, safety, health and environment advisor to Esso (Thailand).

While some are already making preparations, companies in Thailand need to devote more attention, and more resources, to planning for a potential avian flu pandemic, said government agencies and international organizations. Yesterday, government health officials, bird flu experts and hundreds of private sector representatives gathered for a seminar sponsored by the Thailand Center for Excellence in Life Sciences (TCELS), the Public Health Ministry, the World Health Organization and Assumption University to discuss ways companies can prepare for a worst-case scenario.

Experts at yesterdays seminar told attendees to expect, and prepare for, serious business disruptions, absenteeism of up to 50 percent of the work force, travel restrictions, quarantines, loss of infrastructure and even civil unrest  all of which could last for more than a year  should bird flu become a human pandemic.

An ill-prepared firm could be easily wiped out of business when a pandemic strikes, said a TCELS spokesman.

The latest series of bird flu outbreaks began in Vietnam in December 2003 and has since spread throughout the globe. While infected birds have been found as far away as Britain, so far, most human victims have been in Asia. At least 22 people have been infected in Thailand, of whom 14 have died.

The disease remains difficult for humans to catch. Although millions of birds have been infected, worldwide, only 228 people have been infected in the nearly three years it has been circulating. But viruses can mutate easily, and many have theorized that if bird flu does change into a virus transmissible between humans it will spark a global pandemic that could infect up to 40 percent of the worlds population and kill four percent, or more.

Not all are as alarmist as Dr Somrat on whether bird flu will mutate. Many scientists, including those at the World Health Organization, instead characterize a bird flu pandemic as low probability but extremely high risk because of the virus high mortality rate.

While the human toll would be catastrophic, the World Bank has estimated the possible toll on the global economy at US$1 trillion. The Asian Development Bank says the cost to the region could hit $282.7 billion in lost consumption, trade and investment.

None of the experts at yesterdays conference offered a silver bullet that would allow companies to manage such a disaster, but all agreed that the private sector needs to do more to mitigate potential harm. Most preparation, according to companies such as Bangkok Bank and Thai Airways International, which made presentations at the seminar, involves crafting a plan of action and being prepared to implement it if necessary.

Suraphon Israngura Na Ayutthaya, director of THAIs crisis management department, said the airline has even compiled an emergency operations manual, which he said the company is fully prepared to put into action.