Video 9:50
Former Premier and former Minister analyse election call

Former Labor WA Premier Geoff Gallop and former Liberal Minister Amanda Vanstone join us to reflect on the calling of the next federal election and its central issues.

Transcript

CHRIS UHLMANN, PRESENTER: So, we know the date. We also know that it came as a complete shock to most of Julia Gillard's cabinet and probably all of her caucus. And we know that those who still burning a torch for the return of the former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd see this as the ultimate Rudd-block.

So is this a stroke of political genius, or in the words of one disgruntled Labor MP, an "unmitigated disaster of historic proportions".

I'm joined now by two of the best political brains in the country. With me in the studio is former Western Australian Premier Geoff Gallop, and in Adelaide, former Howard Government minister Amanda Vanstone.

Welcome to you both.

GEOFF GALLOP, FORMER WEST AUSTRALIAN PREMIER: Thank you.

AMANDA VANDSTONE, FORMER HOWARD GOVT. MINISTER: Thanks very much.

CHRIS UHLMANN: To you first, Geoff Gallop. Is this a stroke of genius or madness?

GEOFF GALLOP: Well, it's neither. I think if you go to the genius side of things, for it to be an act of genius, you'd have to know everything that's going to occur between now and the election and you simply can't know that. Secondly, of course, you'd want to not have any internal flak. You wouldn't want to have any of your own side criticising you, and from what you've said, there is tension within the caucus. On the other side, I don't think it's madness at all. I mean, first of all, there's been a strong push within the Australian community over recent years, taken up by the two independent members, Oakeshott and Windsor, to have more regularity and certainty about elections and that was one of the issues they put on table. So, she's honouring an agreement there with them. And I think also it's provided a framework within which we can have a good debate I think about the future of the country where the parliamentary business will go on but people will also know that there's a campaign out there, step by step around the country clarification can occur and I think that's good for everyone.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Amanda Vanstone?

AMANDA VANDSTONE: Well, look, I think it's a bit unusual. She's basically told her cabinet to go forth and procreate. She's not really interested in their view. She doesn't care what they think. And, look, in a normal calling of an election date, I don't know that a prime minister would consult the whole cabinet and definitely not the whole caucus. But this isn't a normal thing. This is of historic proportions to make the announcement so far ahead and to do that without consulting colleagues is a very bad sign that she thinks she knows better than everybody. On the other hand, it does at least provide certainty. Everyone knows now where the date is. I think she probably did it to - for two reasons. One, to give herself the feeling of being in control - you know, "I will decide the election date and I'll decide it now. I won't have events dictated to me as the year goes on." And secondly to try and block off any hopes of Rudd supporters. I don't know that it's effective in that context. If she messes up, they'll have a go anyway.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Geoff Gallop, you can credibly claim as the Prime Minister did today that she's not launching an election campaign. You're gonna start this thing at the beginning of the year and say, "Look, I'm gonna use the first half as the days of governing and the second half as an election campaign." Now everything's an election campaign.

GEOFF GALLOP: Well I think what the parties will now do, the major parties and indeed the minor parties is develop a strategy for now - between now and September 14th. So, in effect it'll be a campaign. It'll be different. I don't think it'll be as compressed obviously at the end as we normally see. But I think we'd say we'll have a campaign now about the future of Australia, what the policies are, what the costings are, all that sort of thing, going alongside what would be the normal parliamentary debate. And I must say I think it will focus the attention of the voters and I'm sure that's what Julia Gillard's trying to get.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Amanda Vanstone, one of the happiest people in Canberra must be at the moment Brian Loughnane, who's running the Liberal Party campaign, 'cause he can certainly plan now.

AMANDA VANDSTONE: Yes, indeed he can plan. But I (inaudible) is what Geoff referred to the costings and you heard Wayne Swan constantly saying, well, they'll have to put out their policies and costings. Well, let's face it: they're not going into caretaker mode, are they? They're not doing that until a couple of weeks before the election. In other words, they will keep to themselves all the benefits of having the enormous skills of the public service at their disposal, but not provide those to the Opposition. So in the leadup to this time, Wayne Swan's trying to pretend that things will be equal and we can all share policies and costings, but of course they won't be equal because the Government won't go into a caretaker mode until quite close towards the election. So, I think that's just a bit of a furphy on their part, trying to flush out what the Coalition policies are and I don't think the Coalition should be spooked. I think they should release their policies as and when they see fit.

GEOFF GALLOP: Well I think we've now moved try different situation where we're trying to get an independent process for determining what the cost is associated with a particular party policy. We've now got an institution that can do that. And I think it's important from the point of view of the position of both major parties that it's given that scrutiny by people who know how to do costings within the bureaucracy. And I disagree with Amanda on that. I think one of the big issues with the Liberal Party is they're saying a lot about what they're going to spend money on and also a lot of what they're going to cut and there is a big gap there. Much more so than we've seen in recent times because of their aggressive opposition style of politics. Therefore I think from that point of view, she's positioned herself well.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Amanda Vanstone, I just want to know what you think strategically on this, and that is that the Government wants to leverage it being in government for the first half of the year and all of the advantages that brings and then campaign in the second half. Doesn't what Julia Gillard has done today present a level playing field now? She's put herself up against the alternative prime minister and everything that she says now will have to be measured against what he says.

AMANDA VANDSTONE: Well, in that sense it does. But let's not forget they will have up until caretaker mode the enormous resources of the federal public service, very talented public service, to advise them that the Opposition doesn't have. So, I don't think it is exactly a level playing field. But look, she's made this decision. I personally think it's a very risky decision to make without consulting colleagues. Look, she didn't consult on the Trish Crossin thing. A senator of some 17 years gets rung the night before and said, "See ya later, sister. You're out," when many people in the caucus think she should have said to Warren Snowdon, you know, "See ya later Jack. You can go, you've been there long enough." But in any event, that was all done because that's what she wanted. It's a captain's pick. And now this has been done without consulting her colleagues. So, we're not really looking at a Labor team, we're looking at just a few people at the top behind closed doors deciding what they'll do and telling the caucus they have to go along with it.

CHRIS UHLMANN: And Geoff Gallop, it is a very divided team. You just have to ring around the caucus to find that you can't split the signal from the noise. There's the Rudd camp and the Gillard cam. That hasn't gone away today. Most of the criticism being levelled at the Prime Minister today is coming from Rudd supporters.

GEOFF GALLOP: Well there's no doubt that there a number of issues that are in the Labor side of things that are holding it back. One is this division within the ranks. And what that means of course is that when Julia Gillard asserts her authority, you'll get people out there criticising it. That's the circumstance in which she faces the people and I think she's trying to assert her authority in that situation so the electors fully understand she's in charge. The alternative would be just to go along with the infighting and not stamp her own authority on the situation, which I think would be worse.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Amanda Vanstone, do you think that this kills off the chances of Kevin Rudd or is he the sort of person in your estimation who will just keep hoping that he might get an opportunity between now and September?

AMANDA VANDSTONE: Look, she didn't go about it the right way in the very beginning. The proper thing to do if she was gonna have a go at Rudd and shift him aside as she did was to give him a place, give him some respect and some sort of capacity to move ahead. She didn't do that. He got flicked out for a couple of months and it was a very bad way to handle it. And so this ongoing sore within the Labor Party is all her fault. And I don't think for one minute that if she slips up between now and September, say around the Ides of March, a good time to change leaders - if she makes a big mistake in February or the polls go down, I don't think that'll stop anyone saying, "Well, OK, the election's in September." All it really does is focus the minds of marginal seat members that it is coming and you could lose your seat unless you pick a more popular leader. So, I don't know that it helps. I think it's designed to provide security for her, but I don't know that it does.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Geoff Gallop.

GEOFF GALLOP: Look, there are big issues for Australia. The fundamental point is the Labor Party needs to show that it's in charge of affairs, it's dealing with the climate issue, it's dealing with productivity, it's dealing with the future of the nation within the global situation, it's a much more international party than the current Coalition Opposition with its bid for the UN position and whatever. It has to deal with all those issues and it needs to show that it's in charge. And I think politically, Julia Gillard step by step has been doing that and, you know, if Labor people out there in the caucus think that dividing up on an issue like this is gonna help their cause, well I think they need to have a second look at themselves.

CHRIS UHLMANN: And Amanda Vanstone - go on.

AMANDA VANDSTONE: Geoff's right in saying that, that if they think by being disunited publicly it helps the cause, they're of course barking mad. But as he says, the Labor Party needs to show that they're in charge, but what this move shows is that the Labor Party isn't in charge, the caucus isn't in charge and cabinet isn't in charge; Julia Gillard is. You know, a political assassin is in charge and she will ruthlessly make decisions to advantage herself and I doesn't think Australians believe that she'll make decisions to advantage Australia. She's in charge, not the Labor Party and that's a problem for the Labor Party.

CHRIS UHLMANN: Amanda Vanstone, last word goes to you. Thank you very much. And to you, Geoff Gallop.