Coinciding with the opening day of the Beijing Games — no Olympic truce in these cynical times — Europe and the U.S. were reduced to spluttering about sovereignty and demanding a ceasefire even as Russian forces advanced towards Tbilisi and reports of mass civilian casualties began to emerge. But beneath the headlines, the crisis poses serious questions for Europe and its strategy, such as it is, for dealing with a resurgent and potentially menacing Russia.

Europe has prided itself, in recent times, on the success of so-called “soft” power in achieving its goals. This can be seen most clearly in the enlargement of the European Union from 12 member states in 1986 to 27 today — with the dangling carrot of EU membership acting as a catalyst for reform in countries across Eastern Europe. This forms the basis for European policy, not only towards the former Yugoslavia and erstwhile Soviet states like Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia (who form the object of the EU’s “neighborhood policy”), but also towards Russia itself. By locking former enemies into the international system through ever-closer economic, cultural, and political ties, so the theory goes, conflict becomes a less and less attractive means of solving problems. EU diplomats are fond of implying that Americans are from Mars, forever sabre-rattling and warning of air strikes, while Europeans are from Venus, preferring saturation love-bombing of their targets. The American retort is less flattering; as George Bush might put it, the problem with Europeans is that they don’t have a word for cojones.

The failure of the ongoing EU/U.S. good cop/bad cop routine with the Iranian regime demonstrates the limits of soft power when dealing with a regime that’s not interested in playing the game by your rules. The mullahs are unimpressed by smooth European officials whose mantra seems to be to speak softly, but on no account carry a stick. Russia’s contempt for Western criticism merely emphasizes the point. This is acutely problematic if you’re Georgian, obviously, but it also carries long-term problems for Europe itself, because Russia’s actions have repercussions far beyond the Caucasus.

The Russians justified their military intervention with reference to the situation of ethnic Russian residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and indeed the Georgian president had played into their hands by sending the tanks into the former at the beginning of the month in a thuggish, heavy-handed attempt to quell separatist sentiment. This gave Moscow all the cover it needed; after all, it gave the citizens of South Ossetia Russian passports in 2003. (This trick is worth keeping an eye on; Ukrainian politicians allege that Russia has been doling out passports to residents of the Crimea, too.)

23 Comments, 23 Threads

Funny to see American Right on Georgia conflict being same pathological liars as American left on Iraq.

Olympic truth was violated by Georgians, not Russians. Side note: Georgians from now on are hated low-life animals for Great China.

Russian advance in Georgia mainland stopped on fifth day of conflict.

There were no serious civilian casualties among Georgians, for couple of reasons: Russians bombed only military targets in Georgia; after pitched battle over Tshinvaly Georgian forces wisely disengaged advanced Russian columns; Russians wisely did not pursue.

Russia threatening oil flow from Azeri is the same BS as US threatening oil flow from Iraq.

All in all, American skinhead fascists and pathological liars like Mr. Eugenides are pushing American People into the next World War.

Is that Al Franken the level-headed down-to-earth Senate candidate? Riveting analysis! I am sure that it was a bit unnerving to have been in Georgia as the invasion was happening so you could document all the military-only targets. Of course the illegal US criticism of this patriotic-workers-action-to-free-oppressed-brothers is Western meddling. Viva Che!

With winter approaching and with Europe getting a large portion of natural gas from Russia, is it any wonder they behave like scared mice? Anyone waiting on the EU to do something might as well start working on keeping back the tide with a broom. You’ll get further than the EU ever will in making a concise, aggressive foreign policy decision.

The Soviets, er…….Russians have been planning this for a long time. This is witnessed by they practicing the invasion in July as well as starting their Cyber ops about 3 weeks before the invasion and rape of Georgia. As far as the Georgian response to Russian armed guerrills operating in what was legally part of Georgia ( South Ossetia) Here is a narticle from 1999;

It seems the Russians were doing the same thing in Chechnya that Georgia was doing in S. Ossetia. So what is the problem? Does the shoe pinch when it’;s on the other foot?

AL, you and your KGB masters have to facts to support you, no law to stand on so all you can do is tell lies and call people names.
If Putin thinks the world will forget about this in a week or two and move on to something else, here is a clue;

Russia is now doing to Europe what Hizbollah has done to Lebanon. Starting with intimidation and asserting non-existent rights, the next step will be to directly influence EU government decisions by the threat of violence, then to assert that Russia is Europe’s true protector (against whom or what? – the answer is less obvious than it may seem), and finally to undermine EU legitimacy and authority before it ever really gets a change to take hold.

We are in a post-national period in world history. Legitimacy, authority and power are all in play in a way that they have not been since the revolutionary period from which our country emerged. The stakes are huge and, sadly, most of the people who have position of power have little or no idea what is happening.

While I´m not going to defend Russia, let me just quote from an interesting article:

“If Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were president of the United States, would Iran try to build a nuclear bomb? Would Pakistan provide covert aid to al-Qaeda? Would Hugo Chavez train terrorists in Venezuela?”

Just wondering if I missed anything on the news. Surely I missed reports of mass demonstrations in Europe and in Washington of thousands of protesters taking to the streets angerily denouncing Russia and holding signs that say Putin numer one terrorist. I also must have missed what must have been very moving stories of Westeners going to Georgia to act as human shields. I can’t believe those passionate and committed anti-war protesters who showed so much bravery about the Iraq War could let this pass. Because if they did then it would mean they are nothing but anti-American punks who run their mouths in a free country and call themselves brave. Good grief that thought is too silly to even think.

East Europe is now realizing that for their protection and independence from Russia they need to bypass the Eu and go straight to the real thing that Putin fears: the United States of America. While West Europe is in shoock, Poland decided to go ahead with the missile shield and make a stand against tyranny. Funny thing about this is that Poland is closer to Russia than France or Germany. If the next president (hopefully McCain) decides to play ball with the Russians it will not be pretty. Sure our forces are at Afghanistan and Iraq but we can teach the Georgians what we have learned there. We can teach them how to make all types of IED’s (Improvised Explosive Device)and more importantly we can teach em how to use em. Why do you think that the Russians stopped and are now digging in? They know we can do that among many things like:

The Russians know what we are capable of. A bleeding war is a dangerous one for a delicate economy (imagine the morale issue). Every terrorist nation is using proxy wars against us, i believe that is time to play their game and see how they like it.

The EU needs oil; Russia needs population. The respective leaderships in Brussels and Moscow are pretty much of the same mind about centralized, autocratic power, and as long as the people have plenty of pretty things to buy, they’re happy. So the fundamentals are already in place for a marriage or at least a shacking up. One discordant note I see is that Europe may have outgrown such things as religion and war; the Russians haven’t. I’d laugh my arse off if Putin had the entire soft-left chattering class of Europe shot.
Hell, I’d send him barge loads of ours.

“EU diplomats are fond of implying that Americans are from Mars, forever sabre-rattling and warning of air strikes, while Europeans are from Venus, preferring saturation love-bombing of their targets.”

They punished Georgia for the policy of joining NATO and bringing the USA to the S. Caucasus, Russian doorstep (which was unavoidable anyway).
They humiliated the Georgian Saakashvilly regime or government, whatever, for the “f*-ck you, Russians” attitude. They humiliated the USA instructors who provided training to the Georgian Army. They have proven that AK-47 still beats M-17. The military operation is over, but not the punishment. The next step will be political one. Russia is going to recognize independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia provide them Russian protection and set political, economical and military ties with them. Now, you can get your stripped Georgia with all her guts and oil pipes to the NATO. I hope the Georgian Army will significantly increase NATO fighting capability.

““If anyone thinks that they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this,” he rumbled. “If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response. We have all the necessary resources, political, economic, and military.” Consider yourselves warned.”

Yeah, warned to get rid of any and all Russian citizens on your soil, whatever it takes.

“It seems the Russians were doing the same thing in Chechnya that Georgia was doing in S. Ossetia. So what is the problem? Does the shoe pinch when it’;s on the other foot?’

Without all the collapsing buildings and dead civilians, though. Or at least that’s what Human Rights Watch reports.

“They have proven that AK-47 still beats M-17. ”

What’s an M-17? Is that supopsed to be the replacement for the M-16? The replacement for the M-16 is the M-4. In any case it’s immaterial, because the Geoprgians were mostly carrying AK’s anyway, at least in all the photos I have seen. And should I read you too in an outrageous and stereotyped Russian accent?

““If anyone thinks that they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this,” he rumbled. “If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response. We have all the necessary resources, political, economic, and military.” Consider yourselves warned.”

Yeah, warned to get rid of any and all Russian citizens on your soil, whatever it takes.

“It seems the Russians were doing the same thing in Chechnya that Georgia was doing in S. Ossetia. So what is the problem? Does the shoe pinch when it’;s on the other foot?’

Without all the collapsing buildings and dead civilians, though. Or at least that’s what Human Rights Watch reports.

“They have proven that AK-47 still beats M-17. ”

What’s an M-17? Is that supopsed to be the replacement for the M-16? The replacement for the M-16 is the M-4. In any case it’s immaterial, because the Geoprgians were mostly carrying AK’s anyway, at least in all the photos I have seen. And should I read you too in an outrageous and stereotyped Russian accent?

“”The next step will be political one.”

Quite. The US will recognize China’s obviously well-grounded claim to all of Siberia and the former Soviet Far East.

“It seems the Russians were doing the same thing in Chechnya that Georgia was doing in S. Ossetia. So what is the problem?

No problems at all. “What is allowed for Jupiter may not be allowed for a bull”.

Same with the USA attacking Iraq in 2003. Great powers do what they want and can afford. And they can afford a lot. The weaker powers must think first. They can do what the great powers allow them to do. The West and the USA in particular must be grateful to Russia for her role in Chechnya. Otherwise the Chechen would create another Taliban state in the North Caucasus, and provide a safe haven for Osama Ben Landen there. And the Caucasus is a much better hiding place then even Afghanistan.

Yeah, right. M-4. Why did you Americans named M-4 the model developed AFTER M-16? Do you have count problem? Or it was one quarter of M-16 in size?

What is wrong with my accent? I am a foreigner. I have the right to speak with accent.

As about the article, the EU’s response is an adequate one. It is not the kind of aggression like the USA invasion in Iraq. It is a local, low scale, limited objective, short-term conflict which anyway is going to be over itself.

“The Russians justified their military intervention with reference to the situation of ethnic Russian residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia…”

The author is not aware that the residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not “ethnic Russian”. They are Ossetians and Abkhazians. By their physical features, culturally and linguistically they are even more distinctive from Russians than from Georgians. Yes, most of them have Russian citizenship. Russia allowed Russian citizenship and passports to any former USSR citizen, who chosen to take it. Because Russia is a legal heir to the USSR.
That was Abkhazians and Ossetians own choice. Russia did not bribed them, was not forcing them. They all had Georgian citizenship, but were not happy with it. Georgians should get along better with their national minorities…

“If anyone thinks that they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this,” he rumbled. “If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response. We have all the necessary resources, political, economic, and military.” Consider yourselves warned.

The trouble with agi=prop campaigns is they eventually run out of steam and the facts float to the top.

Russian Bear, the problem with your statement is that Russia IS NOT a great power. It is a turd world kleptocracy with nuclear weapons.
I doubt that Russia has the population base to be a great power anymore. If the Russians were concerned about being a great power, they would drop the despotic rulers and go with consensual rule. They choose not to and the Tyrant Putin seized power and it is doubtful that the Russian people will ever get it back. Did you ever think that maybe if Russia was a democracy, people would WANT to join Russia and you wouldn’t have to send in the tanks?