Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag

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Wheat The eastern half of Kansas and Nebraska received a rain/snow mix Jan. 21-22, which put initial pressure on the wheat complex early week. The moisture was not heavy and the Jan. 25 U.S. Drought Monitor showed an expansion D3 extreme drought in southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma and northern Texas. This provided a firm undertone to the market late week.

Wheat Early week, the wheat market experienced follow through selling from the Jan. 12 report that expects farmers to plant more winter wheat than was anticipated and confirmed adequate world stocks. The report showed that 32.6 million acres of all winter wheat were planted. This was down 1 percent from last year with trade anticipating a 4.5 percent cut. Hard red winter wheat acres came in at 23.1 million, which was the highest trade estimate. This compares to 23.426 million planted acres last year and an all-winter-wheat total of 32.696 million in 2016-17.

Wheat Kansas City spot basis has been improving recently. Thirteen percent higher protein improved 15 cents on Jan. 9. The recent cold weather has also given the market support over concerns of declining yields and potential winterkill. There is also speculation that winter wheat plantings could be lower than anticipated. All these factors are providing a firm undertone to the wheat complex.

Wheat The wheat market received more bad news with the release of Canada's Production of Principle Field Crops report on Dec. 6. Wheat production was estimated at 30.0 million metric tons. This was 2 million metric tons higher than the pre-report estimate of 28.0 million metric tons. 2017 all-wheat acreage came in at 22.2 million acres. Saskatchewan had the largest decrease in average yield at -11.3 percent, while Manitoba had the highest increase at +12.6 percent mirroring western North Dakota versus eastern North Dakota and Minnesota production.