Donald Trump has posted a series of anti-Syrian Tweets in light of the US State Department associating itself with “reports” from terrorist groups in the Damascus suburb of Douma alleged a “chemical attack” had been carried out by the Syrian Arab Army which after last night’s fighting is on the verge of liberating all of Douma. While the state department admitted it had no verifiable evidence of such an attack but instead was relying exclusively on “reports”, Donald Trump seems to have made up his mind on the matter when he Tweeted the following.

Many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price…

While Trump has collectively blamed the Syrian President, Iran, Russia and Barack Obama for the incident that Russia and Syria have called totally fabricated, it remains unclear whether or not he will follow through with a criminal threat to launch a missile strike against the Syrian Arab Republic, made by a US homeland security adviser earlier today. The Russian Foreign Ministry has responded with a warning that any US attack in areas of Syria where Russian personnel are operating could trigger a very serious response from Russia. According to the Foreign Ministry,

“Hoaxes on attacks using chlorine or other poisonous substances by Syrian government forces are continuing to emerge. Another such hoax that has supposedly taken place is the alleged chemical attack in Douma yesterday. At the same time, references have been made to the notorious NGO ‘White Helmets’, which has been repeatedly caught acting with terrorists, as well as other so-called humanitarian organisations based in the United Kingdom and the United States.

It is necessary to warn once again that military intervention under far-fetched and fabricated pretexts in Syria, where the Russian servicemen are deployed at the request of the legitimate government, is absolutely unacceptable and might lead to very severe consequences”.

For well over a month, Russia had warned the world that terrorist groups in Syria would attempt to stage false flag chemical attacks in order to draw the US deeper into the conflict. Nevertheless, there are many logical reasons that would indicate that the current US threats against Syria are a bluff. As I wrote hours ago,

“While many have expressed concern that the US may resort to an illegal unilateral missile strike on Syria as today’s statements come a year after the US conducted such a strike on 6 April 2017, the realities on the ground and the wider geopolitical atmosphere indicate that this time the US might bark but it will not bite.

First of all, the remaining terrorists in Douma have just agreed to a ceasefire deal with the Syrian Arab Army that will likely result in the evacuation of terrorists and their interlopers to Idlib, thus allowing Syrian forces to peacefully liberate the suburb. The fact that the terrorists in Douma approached Damascus asking for a ceasefire after previously reneging on an agreed evacuation deal is symptomatic of the chaos within the Takfiri leadership in Douma, as well as being indicative of no promises of support from the US military being forthcoming as they have been in the past.

Secondly, as Syria is within what is likely a day or two of total victory against the terrorist in Douma, all of the suburbs surrounding Damascus will shortly be fully under the control of the legitimate government. This reality renders any would-be US attack on Syria in order to help Takfiris re-take areas surrounding the capital as utterly futile from a strategic point of view.

Finally, with substantial numbers of Russian military and civilian personnel in the region and with Russia previously threatening to fire back at US forces should the lives of Russians in Syria be at risk, a US attack on the Damascus region would carry many risks without any long-term tangible benefits being available to the US in that particular military theatre. The fact that the US sought to place more blame on Russia than Syria further confirms that the high likelihood that the US will not attack as by America’s own definition, the “culprit” is Russia and thus far the US and Russia have been careful to avoid a direct confrontation in Syria.

Instead, the US seems to be concentrating its illegal operations in Syria in the north east of the country as this is where Syria’s oil fields are located. It appears that even here the US is slowly withdrawing some of its men from the front-lines as the illegal presence of French soldiers in Syria look to be the only thing that now stands between America’s proxy terrorist militia SDF/YPG and the Turkish army which seeks to neutralise the threat of PKK aligned terrorists on its border.

While the US could still commit a strategically unwise and a legally defined criminal act of war upon the Damascus region, the chances of this happening are increasingly unlikely. Instead, the two realistic options are for the Takfiri terrorists in Douma to surrender and prepare to be evacuated or otherwise, face an impending defeat on the battle field as Syrian troops close in on the last bastion of terrorism near the Syrian capital”.

The crucial element here is that the US might attempt to conduct a small attack in order to embolden terrorists in Douma to abandon their now confirmed ceasefire and evacuation deal, by giving them hope that the US military might come to their assistance. The key for Syria is to make sure that the deal is executed in rapid order to avoid any window of opportunity that the US could take to wage an attack on Syria which itself would almost certainly put an end to the deal in Douma were it not executed with immediate effect.

Once again, the most dangerous element in the entire situation is the personal volatility and hostile attitude of the US President and his closet advisers including John Bolton and Nikki Haley.