Conservatives and Republican elites in the state are divided over who to support for the GOP nomination, but they almost uniformly express concern over the prospect that Ron Paul and his army of activist supporters may capture the state’s 2012 nominating contest — an outcome many fear would do irreparable harm to the future role of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Allen on Paul’s Iowa chances

Paul poses an existential threat to the state’s cherished kick-off status, say these Republicans, because he has little chance to win the GOP nomination and would offer the best evidence yet that the caucuses reward candidates who are unrepresentative of the broader party.

“It would make the caucuses mostly irrelevant if not entirely irrelevant,” said Becky Beach, a longtime Iowa Republican who helped Presidents Bush 41 and Bush 43 here. “It would have a very damaging effect because I don’t think he could be elected president and both Iowa and national Republicans wouldn’t think he represents the will of voters.”

What especially worries Iowa Republican regulars is the possibility that Paul could win here on January 3rd with the help of Democrats and independents who change their registration to support the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman but then don’t support the GOP nominee next November.

“I don’t think any candidate perverting the process in that fashion helps [the caucuses] in any way,” said Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, adding that he didn’t know if that’s necessarily how Paul would win.

While there’s no evidence of an organized effort, public polling shows that Paul’s lead is built in large part with the support of non-Republicans – and few party veterans think such voters would stick with the GOP in November.

“They’ll all go back and vote for Obama,” predicted Beach.

The most troubling eventuality that Iowa Republicans are bracing for is that Paul wins the caucuses only to lose the nomination and run as a third-party candidate in November — all but ensuring President Obama is re-elected.

“If we empower somebody who turns around and elects Obama, then that’s a major problem for the caucuses,” said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa).

Leading Republicans, looking to put the best possible frame on a Paul victory, are already testing out a message for what they’ll say if the 76-year-old Texas congressman is triumphant.

The short version: Ignore him.

“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”

The Paul rise comes at a moment when many Iowa GOP elites are already angst-ridden about their beloved quadrennial franchise. The fretting began four years ago when long-shot Mike Huckabee cruised to an easy caucus win, only to lose the nomination to John McCain, who finished fourth in Iowa after ignoring the state for much of 2007.

The concern has only grown in this election cycle. Romney has kept the state at arms-length for much of this year; Michele Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll only to quickly recede to single-digits in state and national polls, raising questions about the future relevance of what is a fundraising bonanza for the state party.

Further, the decline in the number of candidate events here — and the prominent role debates and cable TV have played in this year’s election — have sparked difficult questions about whether Iowa’s retail-heavy traditions are a thing of the past.

Paul officials note that they’ve embraced the Iowa way. And even establishment Republicans like Branstad concede that the congressman has done it “the old-fashioned way” and enjoys the best organization of any of the candidates.

I love everything about Ron Paul except for his ultra liberal foreign policy. If he wasn't afraid to defend America, he would definitely have my vote. Any man that vows to cut $1T of the federal budget in his first year in office is a man endorsed by the heavens. Somebody just needs to convince this man that Iran is a legitimate threat and that if we don't do something now, this could be a big catastrophe.

TeamPOLITICO: "What especially worries Iowa Republican regulars is the possibility that Paul could win here on January 3rd with the help of Democrats and independents who change their registration to support the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman but then don’t support the GOP nominee next November."

Libbers are always trying to fix elections. If not through the ruthless libber media, then through other disingenuous methods. Never trust a libber unless he has been defanged.

“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”

Romney's strength in New Hampshire is pretty firm. Brand new poll out yesterday reflects that:

@Neo In The Matrix Ron Paul has a very strong view of national defense and he has repeated time and time again that if there was a legitimate threat with concrete evidence he would declare war and go in win it and get out. He is against long drawn out wars with murky missions. His beef with the Iran hype is that there is no concrete evidence that Iran is even close to having a nuke and he simply want's us to be cautious of going to war carelessly or it will be another 10 year Iraq war and we simply cannot afford it. He has also stated time and time again he does not want Iran to have a nuke or anyone else for that matter but he also understands why they would pursue one since they are surrounded by them, this doesn't mean he want's them to have one as the media has wrongly accused him of saying. Most of the media totally misconstrues his foreign policy as isolationism but the correct term is non-interventionist. Michele Bachmann in the last debate made false statements about what was in the AIEA report which irritated him because it was propaganda. Politifact.com confirmed Bachmann's statements were false the next day. Ron Paul would go to war without hesitation if the country was in risk of attack. He is not a wimpy man.

Romney's strength in New Hampshire is pretty firm. Brand new poll out yesterday reflects that:

LOL! Keep dreaming. What else do you have?? The No-Bain Zone: O'Reilly Sidesteps Romney's Jobs Record

December 19, 2011 10:53 pm ET by Jeremy Holden

Mitt Romney's reported strategy to make nice with Fox News might be paying dividends, especially now that Romney's campaign faces increasing scrutiny over his jobs record while at the helm of leveraged buyout firm Bain Capital.

During an exclusive interview with Romney tonight, Bill O'Reilly simply ignored the issue, asking not one question about the former Massachusetts governor's jobs record during his tenure at Bain. O'Reilly remained silent despite the fact that Romney himself touted his role "leading an organization," and "hiring people" and "firing people."

Earlier that day, an Associated Press article had reported on "the human toll" extracted from Bain Capital under Romney's leadership, as plants were closed, employees were fired, and "Bain walked away with millions in profits."

Romney's record wringing profits out of companies through layoffs came under scrutiny during a December 16 GOP candidates debate in Iowa that was moderated by Fox News. Romney foreshadowed what he saw as likely attacks on his record at Bain, saying:

Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will commend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. . . . She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit. . . .

Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will commend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. . . . She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit. . . .

“People are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third,” said Gov. Terry Branstad. “If [Mitt] Romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into New Hampshire and the other states.”

Romney needs to place in the top three in Iowa ..................the race to close to call but GingRich is falling thanks to Ron Paul's ads in Iowa.... Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (12-17-11): Newt Gingrich lead is still..."Slip Slidin' Away

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Gingrich Down 11 Points since December 8

Click HERE to enlarge the graph

A survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 13-18, 2011. The MOE is +/-3%.

The point behind this artical is that the caucus system is broken, outdated and doesn't work. The vast majority of the country never get to vote for their candidate, because they drop out after the first 3 or 4 states. And fringe candidates go crazy with spending and canvassing, and succeed in making the caucus even more obviously obsolete. With technology at the state it is in now, we could easily simply have 1 vote, all across the country, where each side simply chooses his candidate.

The US is supposedly in Afghanistan to fight the taliban and Al Qaeda, yet when NATO attacked Libya and overthrew the government, Al Qaeda were fighting with NATO. Now Al Qaeda have a strong base in Libya and are running large parts of the country and introducing sharia law. I thought US soldiers were being killed and maimed in the global fight against AL Qaeda. To use a Ron Paul phrase...."what's going on here?"

Thousands of US soldiers were killed and maimed fighting in Iraq, a war that started because Saddam supposedly had Weapons of Mass Destruction. They were never found, the intelligence was beefed up, or "sexed up" as the British government even admitted and in those words.

The Treasonous Obstructionist Republican Party Of NO establishment, is worried that THE PEOPLE want Paul ... a man that knows how to think for himself ... instead of one of the establishments hired cronies

Now isn't that a laugh ...

The last time a Republican cared about the will of the people ... we were Embryos