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Research Interests

I am an Arctic climate scientist and Director of the CIRES National Snow and Ice Data Center. Over the past two decades, my research has focused on making sense of the profound changes unfolding in the North—shrinking sea ice, rapidly rising temperatures—thawing permafrost—and what they mean not just for the Arctic’s future but for the rest of the planet. I am also very active in science outreach and education. Today, more than ever, it is important that scientists reach out and make science more accessible and relevant to society.

Current Research

A major thrust of my recent research addresses predictability of Arctic sea ice conditions on seasonal time scales. For example, in the month of May, can we predict what ice conditions in a given area will look like in July or August? The importance of improving seasonal predictions is that the Arctic is becoming a busier place for marine shipping, oil and natural gas exploration, tourism, and other activities. Although Arctic sea ice is declining, fickle winds and ocean currents mean that ice conditions are quite variable from year to year and even day to day. One area where better predictions are needed is in the Chukchi Sea—any ship transiting from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean must pass through this shallow shelf sea via the Bering Strait. It turns out that the that variability in the inflow of ocean heat through the Bering Strait is a key in making seasonal predictions of both when the ice will retreat in the Chukchi Sea in spring and summer, and when it will return in the autumn. The Northwest Passage—the fabled shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific, has become open in recent summers, and in 2017, the Crystal Serenity, a massive cruise ship, sailed through the passage without a hitch. But ice conditions can change quickly. This satellite image for middle August of 2010 for the northern, deepwater route through the passage from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer aboard NASA’s Terra satellite, shows that while there was a lot of open water, a series of large floes had moved in from the north, presenting hazards to any ship that might want to transit.

An August 2010 satellite view of the northern, deepwater route through the Northwest Passage. The image, from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer aboard NASA’s Terra satellite, shows that while there was a lot of open water, a series of large floes had moved in from the north, presenting hazards to any ship that might want to transit.

Clark, M.P., L.E. Hay, G.J. McCabe, G.H. Leavesley, M.C. Serreze, and R.L. Wilby (2003), The use of weather and climate information in forecasting water supply in the western United States.Water and Climate in the Western United States Version: 169-92