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Marion Laboure, analyst in the Thematic Research team, discusses the 2020 Outlook in this latest Podzept episode.

Marion Laboure, analyst in the Thematic Research team, discusses the 2020 Outlook in this latest Podzept episode. With some major downside risks to the global economy having been avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing Laboure believes that global growth will gain speed over the coming months and hit 3.3% this year, up from 3.1% in 2019. [more]

More documents from Luke Templeman

While history shows us that it can take over two years for an aviation demand shock to return to normal, many people now forecast a permanent drop in travel, particularly for business. We argue business and personal travel will remain, however, the way people book will change the transport industry. [more]

We have decided to pause the Corona Crisis Daily at the end of this week as new case growth and fatalities have been suppressed for now. We really hope it is a permanent halt but we stand ready to bring it back if the virus has a second wave. Thanks for all your interactions and feedback on the report. [more]

With European football leagues on hold, clubs are facing severe losses that will likely continue over into next season. The transfer market has also been highly disrupted. Not all clubs have shareholders with deep pockets and so there is likely to be a widening of inequality between the big and small clubs. [more]

As our personal, business, social, and economic lives begin to change, this edition of Konzept examines 20 different ways in which the world will be different post covid-19. From working from home, to managing seismic industry change, and eventually paying for the astonishing stimulus measures, many difficult questions must be answered. And given the global health and economic backdrop remains highly uncertain, the way we frame the problems is just as important as the way we address them. [more]

Although the exit from lockdown is on the horizon, there are signs that the return of consumer demand may be slow. As such, many corporates face a staffing conundrum more difficult than that seen during the financial crisis. How long should corporates wait before furloughs become layoffs? Just how important are staff? [more]

Even with the best strikers in the world on your team, you wouldn’t play without a goalkeeper – so why run a risk asset portfolio without an effective defensive overlay? Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring explain. [more]

There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX? [more]

We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down. [more]

Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. No brand has yet achieved real sustainability. Those brands that will be able to incorporate newness with sustainability are the likely winners. [more]

Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations. [more]

Ahead of the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos, this piece summarises the topics we expect to address in conversations with leaders of global organisations, politicians, entrepreneurs, investors, and other experts on the subject of growth and the increasing awareness of its side effects. [more]