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Well-Known Member

I don't think that will be the case. Tesla's audience is the mass market. You have people trading up from Civics and Camrys. I don't think that will be happening with the ~$90k Taycan and any other manufacturer including P has a shit ton of catching up to do regarding charging infrastructure wether that be shared, 3rd party, or proprietary. Tesla is far ahead in EVs and that is not changing anytime soon especially if the promised $35k Tesla is produced in 2019. Sure Lord Elon is a total nut job but the cars speak for themselves, I think so at least.

Angry Wanker

I don't think that will be the case. Tesla's audience is the mass market. You have people trading up from Civics and Camrys. I don't think that will be happening with the ~$90k Taycan and any other manufacturer including P has a shit ton of catching up to do regarding charging infrastructure wether that be shared, 3rd party, or proprietary. Tesla is far ahead in EVs and that is not changing anytime soon especially if the promised $35k Tesla is produced in 2019. Sure Lord Elon is a total nut job but the cars speak for themselves, I think so at least.

I don't think Tesla as a car company will exist in the same way, or at all, within the next 5yrs or less. Who is trading up from a Camry or Civic to a $50-60k car? I don't see many model 3's out there now. Also, the Porsche will sell for around the same price as the Model S, and is way better looking, then Audi and VW will get into the game (never mind all the other big players) As far as playing catch-up on infrastructure, you are way underestimating the established car companies. Tesla is not that far ahead with EV's, especially since they are essentially copying technology that GM pioneered in the 90's.

Lets play this out. The company's fundamentals are shit, their CEO is managing a stock, not a company. Negative cash-flow, $10billion in debt, production delays, and although subjective, styling that's 8yrs behind. By the time they catch up with production (big if), they'll still be in the red, the competition would have already launched, and they'll be selling a dated product next to something that looks like a Taycan (and Audi, and VW), and the lesser siblings it will spawn. Technically, to have a fighting chance, they need to be styling next gen now, and implementing that production tooling now to be competitive. Is that happening? Doubt it since they can barely make the gen. 1 line work.

Well-Known Member

I don't think Tesla as a car company will exist in the same way, or at all, within the next 5yrs or less. Who is trading up from a Camry or Civic to a $50-60k car? I don't see many model 3's out there now. Also, the Porsche will sell for around the same price as the Model S, and is way better looking, then Audi and VW will get into the game (never mind all the other big players) As far as playing catch-up on infrastructure, you are way underestimating the established car companies. Tesla is not that far ahead with EV's, especially since they are essentially copying technology that GM pioneered in the 90's.

Lets play this out. The company's fundamentals are shit, their CEO is managing a stock, not a company. Negative cash-flow, $10billion in debt, production delays, and although subjective, styling that's 8yrs behind. By the time they catch up with production (big if), they'll still be in the red, the competition would have already launched, and they'll be selling a dated product next to something that looks like a Taycan (and Audi, and VW), and the lesser siblings it will spawn. Technically, to have a fighting chance, they need to be styling next gen now, and implementing that production tooling now to be competitive. Is that happening? Doubt it since they can barely make the gen. 1 line work.

The "wild success" of the articles above doesn't match up with reality. Tesla are going to have their clocks cleaned by a combination of competitive success and the idiocy of their CEO. The competition will succeed by making better EV's, with no production issues. Look at the reality of the situation, VW/Audi group paid $20 billion to enter into a strategic partnership with a battery supplier. Having worked for Ze Germans before, they're pretty conservative from a business perspective, and don't throw that kind of money around on speculation, especially after the ride that VW has been on for the last 5 years. They are going to take away China before the lights even come on at Tesla's new factory in China, then the US.

They'll build a better car too. Lets compare apples to apples. An $80k Model 3 or S vs. an $80k RS5 or Cayman S. Both of those cars can do their launch-controlled low 3 sec. 0-60 times all day long, and also lap Monticello all day long without the brakes fading or anything overheating. How about in a Tesla? Tesla couldn't even finish one day of Lightening Lap. I highly doubt that VW Group is going to launch the Taycan, its Halo car, without it being able to do the same thing that every other Porsche can do on the track, reliably. Its all coming.

Well-Known Member

More android phones in the world but iPhones are always more desirable and valuable regardless of spec, performance, etc. Majority of people aren't in tune with reality or what makes the most sense. We are are emotional people. Case in point: cross-shopping a compact sedan with a coupe and a sports car. In retrospect, we did trade up from a Jetta to a used Model S. Another fascinating thing about Tesla ownership is that people actually enjoy driving them more compared to their previous [insert boring color] car. That makes life better. Model 3 test drives are free.

Yeah, and Volts, Bolts, Hybrids.
If T does not have positive cash flow, they ain't gonna make it. That and no brick and mortar service departments. They cannot survive by picking up each customers car and getting it to a central service department.

Well-Known Member

Yeah, vw et all are so trustworthy, they will never do that again. How about world war 2?
They are arrogant. Elon is arrogant but disruptive. You want the guy who figured out how to reuse a rocket, or the ones that cheat on emmisions testing?

In Elon we trust.

Auto purist may buy Porsche. Does Porsche want to be in the mass market to compete with Tesla? Why would they debase their premium by doing that? Poor marketing decision if they do.

Angry Wanker

Yeah, vw et all are so trustworthy, they will never do that again. How about world war 2?
They are arrogant. Elon is arrogant but disruptive. You want the guy who figured out how to reuse a rocket, or the ones that cheat on emmisions testing?

In Elon we trust.

Auto purist may buy Porsche. Does Porsche want to be in the mass market to compete with Tesla? Why would they debase their premium by doing that? Poor marketing decision if they do.

Read the news, the Japanese just got caught cheating too. The Japanese and the Germans, rise of the Axis Powers again? WWIII, but with cars?

Elon didn't figure out shit. GM figured out EV's in the 90's, and McDonnell Douglas figured out how to land a rocket at around the same time. Elon's achievement was having the money and and vision to see the timing was right to reintroduce technology that was ahead of its time when it was developed. His biggest mistake is not knowing when to step away and let someone who knows how to run this type of company do it, Elon's an idea guy.

And Tesla is far from mass market. To be mass market, you need to be selling $25-30K cars. The cheapest Tesla starts at $50k and goes into 6 figures. For the most part, people with money are buying Tesla's as their third or fourth car, not everyday Joe's looking for a daily, one car to do it all. Tesla pioneered making EV's a viable consumer proposition, and the established players will learn from the mistakes that Tesla made and do a better job of it.

Well-Known Member

Read the news, the Japanese just got caught cheating too. The Japanese and the Germans, rise of the Axis Powers again? WWIII, but with cars?

Elon didn't figure out shit. GM figured out EV's in the 90's, and McDonnell Douglas figured out how to land a rocket at around the same time. Elon's achievement was having the money and and vision to see the timing was right to reintroduce technology that was ahead of its time when it was developed. His biggest mistake is not knowing when to step away and let someone who knows how to run this type of company do it, Elon's an idea guy.

And Tesla is far from mass market. To be mass market, you need to be selling $25-30K cars. The cheapest Tesla starts at $50k and goes into 6 figures. For the most part, people with money are buying Tesla's as their third or fourth car, not everyday Joe's looking for a daily, one car to do it all. Tesla pioneered making EV's a viable consumer proposition, and the established players will learn from the mistakes that Tesla made and do a better job of it.

Well-Known Member

Also I suspect that these "sales" numbers are actually the pent up deliveries of cars that have been sold over the last two years. Let's see what happens when they actually make enough product to start fulfilling the backlog. I'm seeing many reports that those expecting ~$35K cars are bailing once they realize that they have to pay closer to $50K.