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You probably already have an opinion on NC's HB2, and even if you do you most likely have only heard about the discriminatory "bathroom" issue and that's a shame. The section on HB2 that applies to bathrooms is only a small part of it and there is nothing in the bill regarding enforcement for it. It was written as a hot button throwaway issue to rally the evangelicals and distract liberals in an election year. The rest of HB2 is actually far more discriminatory and devious and that's why the bathroom issue smokescreen exists. So if you haven't read up on the rest of HB2 then it's something you should do before voting.

Roughly 50% of Republicans and Democrats will vote straight ticket no matter who is on the ballot. Bless their hearts.

The Independent voters favored Republican candidates by a wide margin.

Turnout for the Democrats was abysmal.

Looking at the straight party and Presidential votes cast for the Libertarian party it looks like there are closer to 44,000 of them in North Carolina rather than the 19,335 who were registered in 2012.

2012 was a divisive election for North Carolina, with an unpopular Republican candidate and an incumbent Democrat who had lost the hearts of many in his own party. Since that election the parties have struggled to regain the trust of their base and the voter registrations show that they haven't been very successful.Here are the voter registration changes for 2016 (January to Oct 8):

January 2016

October 8 2016

Diff

Democrat

2,631,120

2,689,045

+57,925

Republican

1,960,460

2,044,281

+83,821

Libertarian

27,862

30,310

+2,448

Unaffiliated

1,816,100

2,005,606

+189,506

Notice that the independent voter registration increased more than both the Democrats and Republicans combined.

The voter registration changes since the 2012 election are even more bleak for the two parties:

Nov 2012

October 8 2016

Diff

Democrat

2,870,693

2,689,045

- 181,648

Republican

2,052,250

2,044,281

- 7,969

Libertarian

19,321

30,310

+ 10,989

Unaffiliated

1,706,924

2,005,606

+ 298,682

And if we look even further back at the registration changes since Jan 2008 we find that the Democrats and Republicans of NC are both losing not just the battle, but the war of registrations:

Jan 2008

October 8 2016

Diff

Democrat

2,511,446

2,689,045

+177,599

Republican

1,919,575

2,044,281

+124,706

Libertarian

0

30,310

+30,310

Unaffiliated

1,173,399

2,005,606

+832,207

Based on this data can we make a wild stab at the outcome of the 2016 election? Nope. There are too many skeletons coming out of the closet from two of the most disliked Presidential candidates in history to even try.

What we can take away from this data:

Any poll on NC elections should be taken with a mountain of salt since almost a third of the voters have abandoned both of the two parties and there's very little to indicate how they will vote in the 2016 election.

The odds are very high that the straight ticket voters and party loyalists will have a much smaller effect on the 2016 election in NC than they did in 2012.

A North Carolina legislature that protects the two parties with some of the most difficult ballot access laws in the country are not representing the people of North Carolina.

Media outlets that only cover the Democrats and Republicans are doing a great disservice to the independent voters of North Carolina who are clearly moving away from the two parties.