Delphi Study: Research by Iterative, Consultative Inquiry

Contents

What is A Delphi Study?

The Delphi Study process
essentially provides an interactive communication structure between the
researcher(s) and 'experts' in a field, in order to develop themes, needs,
directions or predictions about a topic.

Qualitative and/or quantitative
questions can be asked of the 'experts' and the information is then
analyzed and fed back to each person, via further questions, and their
responses are analyzed and fed back, and so on, until the goal is reached,
that is when a consensus is reached which offers synthesis and clarity on
the question.

Because the study involves 'experts' it is assumed that some
reasonable quality information will be inputted, and because it is an
iterative system, it is assumed that good quality knowledge will evolve.

In many ways, it means the researcher is just a good facilitator, but the
Delphi study process is a recognized research technique, and brings with
it some rigor that this helps to strengthen the validity of the results
considerably.

For example, in "pure" Delphi
method research,
'experts' do not directly interact with one another, so as to avoid the social
processes and "contaminations" that can happen in group situations.
Instead, the goal of the Delphi process is to systematically facilitate
communication of information via several stages of the researcher asking questions, undertaking analysis, providing feedback,
and asking further questions.

Other Definitions

Linstone and Turoff (1975, p.
3) proposed a view of the Delphi method that they felt best summarized
both the technique and its objective:

"Delphi may be characterized
as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the
process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to
deal with complex problems".

Some other descriptions of
the Delphi method:

"The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative
exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for
decision making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for
collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a
series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback
(Adler and Ziglio, 1996). According to Helmer (1977) Delphi represents a
useful communication device among a group of experts and thus facilitates
the formation of a group judgement. Wissema (1982) underlines the
importance of the Delphi Method as a monovariable exploration technique
for technology forecasting. He further states that the Delphi method has
been developed in order to make discussion between experts possible
without permitting a certain social interactive behavior as happens during
a normal group discussion and hampers opinion forming. Baldwin (1975)
asserts that lacking full scientific knowledge, decision-makers have to
rely on their own intuition or on expert opinion. The Delphi method has
been widely used to generate forecasts in technology, education, and other
fields (Cornish, 1977)."

"Modified Delphi process. To focus in a future-oriented mode, a
modified Delphi technique was selected for identifying research and
evaluation priorities for distance education. The Delphi technique was
originally used to target future problems and foresee solutions. Part of
its success lies in its use of experts in the field in question. By
utilizing the knowledge of experts, combining it and redistributing it,
the study opens up doors and forces new thought processes to emerge. It
also allows for respondents to see how closely they responded to the rest
of the field of experts and to justify their train of thought (McKillip,
1987)."