Instaforex Daily Analysis

A bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960, which have not been visited since July 2013. Around the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280. Two weeks ago, the ongoing bearish trend was terminated when bullish breakout above 1.5200 took place, as depicted on the chart. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel. Estimated projection targets are located around 1.5600-1.5640 where the previous consolidation zone was located. However, earlier, bears have applied significant bearish pressure around 1.5550 resulting in the formation of a bearish engulfing daily candlestick without further retesting of 1.5600.

By the end of the last week, the GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the price zone of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which failed to provide enough RESISTANCE over the last bullish swing. For the current bullish breakout to persist, bulls should keep defending the price zone of 1.5300-1.5330 that is being approached today. Estimated projection targets for the recent bullish breakout are roughly located around 1.5600-1.5640, which have not been tested yet. On the other hand, the price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.5350-1.5300 to determine the next destination of the GBP/USD pair. The bearish breakdown of 1.5300 should not be excluded, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick that occurred yesterday. If so, a bearish decline towards 1.5230 would be expected.

General overview for 03/03/2015 09:40 CET The recent wave development might be labeled in two different ways and both of them are bullish. The difference between them is the range of corrective wave c green of wave (ii) green. There is the key level for both counts at the level of 1.2474, because any violation of this level would invalidate the alternative count and made the corrective decline more deeper than it is now. Nevertheless, the wave progression looks pretty bullish so far and any breakout above weekly pivot at the level of 1.2515 and above the golden trend line is going to support a bullish view. Support/Resistance: 1.2367 - WS1 1.2447 - Intraday Support 1.2474 - Intraday Support|Key Level| 1.2515 - Weekly Pivot 1.2564 - Intraday Resistance 1.2600 - Dynamic Trend Line Resistance Trading recommendations: Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2474 and TP open for now.

Gold price has made a strong reversal yesterday towards the support of $1,200. The short-term trend is unclear for gold, but there is an increased chance of a continued bounce towards the 38% retracement of $1,235.

Gold price, as shown on the 4-hour chart above, is inside the Ichimoku cloud and above the green support area of $1,188-$1,200. As long as gold price is above the green support area, I would expect gold price to bounce towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement at least.

Red line = support Gold price on the weekly chart, as shown above, remains in a bearish trend and below the kijun-sen resistance (yellow line). However, as long as the price is above the red line support, I would expect gold price to bounce above the kijun-sen (yellow line) towards the tenkan-sen (red line) at least.

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend in all time frames. After the buy signal had been generated in the area of the triangle breakout, the Dollar index was not pushed back below the breakout area. We saw a back test of the breakout area and now we see the index making higher highs and higher lows.

picture Red lines=triangle pattern The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud and is in a bullish trend since the breakout above 95 where the upper triangle boundary was. Trend is bullish as long as price is above 94. I continue to expect a breakout towards new highs near 97-98.

The monthly chart of the Dollar index is fully bullish. Strong resistance is at 95.80-96 where the 50% retracement is found. I expect this level to be broken and the Dollar index to move towards the 61.8% retracement over the coming weeks. Target is 100-101.

Fundamental overview: GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is supported by the positive investor risk appetite, buoyant USD/JPY undertone and demand from Japan's importers. But the GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the weak EUR/USD undertone and the Japanese exports. The GBP/JPY losses are also tempered by the pound demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid positive investor risk appetite. Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, stochastics is turning bullish at oversold levels, but five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182.90. The pivot point stands at 184.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70. Resistance levels: 185.05 185.70 186.15 Support levels: 183.35 182.90 182.50

Fundamental overview: NZD/USD is to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11-year high 95.514 Monday, last 95.49 versus 95.45 early Monday) and the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.085% versus 2.002% late Friday) as expectations prevail that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as midyear. The pair is also affected by contagion from the weak Aussie, a rise in the US core PCE price index for January by 0.1% on-month and by 1.3% on-year, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI for February came in at 52.9 roughly meeting the forecast of 53.0. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive investor risk appetite. Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7570 and the second target at 0.7615. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7510. Resistance levels: 0.7570 0.7615 0.7655 Support levels: 0.7470 0.7430 0.7

Fundamental overview: USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9598 on Monday. It is underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment, negative Swiss interest rates, and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But the Swiss sentiment was boosted by a stronger-than-expected Swiss PMI 47.3 in February (versus forecast 46.5). Technical comment: The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9630 and the second target at 0.9670. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9495. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9445. The pivot point is at 0.9530. Resistance levels: 0.9630 0.9670 0.9690 Support levels: 0.9495 0.9445 0.9405

Bears are those who affect the current movements in the GBP/USD pair on the daily chart again, as the pair is trading lower and still below the resistance level of 1.5491. One could expect a fall to the support level of 1.5247, but the GBP/USD pair will continue to fall breaking that support zone in the coming days. The MACD indicator is entering to a negative territory.

An intraday outlook shows that the GBP/USD pair will find a solid support at the 1.5340 level, because that zone have been showing strength during the last week. At this point, the pair is trading below the 200 SMA and the H1 chart is showing a more solid bearish trend, but the GBP/USD pair could eventually test the resistance level of 1.5413 again.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5957 Dailychart's support levels: 1.5491 / 1.5247 H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5413 / 1.5455 H1 chart's support levels: 1.5340 / 1.5257 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5413, take profit is at 1.5455, and stop loss is at 1.5370.

Bears are those who affect the current movements in the GBP/USD pair on the daily chart again, as the pair is trading lower and still below the resistance level of 1.5491. One could expect a fall to the support level of 1.5247, but the GBP/USD pair will continue to fall breaking that support zone in the coming days. The MACD indicator is entering to a negative territory.

An intraday outlook shows that the GBP/USD pair will find a solid support at the 1.5340 level, because that zone have been showing strength during the last week. At this point, the pair is trading below the 200 SMA and the H1 chart is showing a more solid bearish trend, but the GBP/USD pair could eventually test the resistance level of 1.5413 again.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5957 Dailychart's support levels: 1.5491 / 1.5247 H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5413 / 1.5455 H1 chart's support levels: 1.5340 / 1.5257 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5413, take profit is at 1.5455, and stop loss is at 1.5370.

On the daily chart we can see a huge bullish consolidation in progress, as the USDX is trying to perform a breakout at the resistance zone of 95.45. Bulls will be very strong when the instrument starts to form a higher high pattern above that territory. For now, we could recommend to wait for that breakout before resuming buy orders on the USDX.

The resistance level of 95.52 on the H1 chart is still solid and the USDX stays alive above the support level of 95.31. This shows us a proof of the current bullish bias's strengthening on the intraday charts. The 200 SMA is bullish and we expect more bullish rallies on this instrument, but first, we would like to see the breakout on that resistance zone.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.96 Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.52 / 96.63 H1 chart's support levels: 94.02 / 93.87 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks through with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.38, take profit is at 94.87, and stop loss is at 94.41.

Fundamental Outlook: USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting almost a three-week high of 120.21 this morning. USD/JPY is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11-year high 95.514 Monday, last 95.49 versus 95.45 early Monday) and the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.085% versus 2.002% late Friday) as expectations prevail that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as midyear. The pair is also boosted by a rise in the US core PCE price index for January by 0.1% on-month and by 1.3% on-year, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI for February came in at 52.9, roughly meeting forecast of 53.0. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.25% to 13.04; S&P 500 closed up 0.61% at 2,117.39 overnight). But the USD sentiment is dented by the surprise 1.1% on-month drop in the US January construction spending (versus forecast +0.1%), the bigger-than-expected 0.2% on-month drop in the US January personal spending (versus forecast -0.1%), and the smaller-than-expected 0.3% increase in the U. January personal income (versus forecast +0.4%). The USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports. Technical comment: The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages are rising. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120 and the second target at 120.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.60. The pivot point is at 119.50. Resistance levels: 120 120.35 120.75 Support levels: 119.10 118.60 118.25

Overview: The NZD/USD pair will continue its rise straight from the level of 0.7449 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H4 chart). Moreover, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same time frame. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.7450, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci with the first target of 0.7542 and further to 0.7617 (it will act as a strong resistance, so it will be a good place to take profit). It should be also noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement level. However, in case if a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7449, the market will decline further to 0.7403 in order to indicate a bearish market. Trading recommendations: According to the previous events, the price will be moving between the levels of 0.7613 and 0.7448. Buy above the price of 0.7448 with the first target of 0.7545, it might resume to 0.7610. Look for further downside with 0.7400 and 0.7375 targets below the levels of 0.7440/0.7435.

The USD/CAD pair has rebounded from the minor support at 1.2492 and it is now approaching its support. It will probably start an upside movement at this area and recover again. Moreover, it should be noted that the price has formed a strong support at the level of 1.2470 today. Furthermore, this strong level has been still moving between 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels (the double bottom) and 61.8% on the H1 chart. Hence, the market will probably start showing the signs of bullish market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 1.2470 or 1.2492 with the first target at 1.2535 (the first resistance), then the USD/CAD pair will continue straightly towards the major resistance at 1.2558. What is more, the level of 1.2558 is going to represent the daily resistance, so it will be very gainful to take profit around this area. However, if the USD/CAD pair breaks this level and closure below 1.2470, it will be a downside momentum what is rather convincing. The structure of the fall does not look corrective, thus the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2450. Then the support will become a resistance, so it will be a good sign to sell below 1.2450 with the first target at 1.2420. It will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish trend towards 1.2387 to test the double bottom.

Overview: The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with the projection target at 1.5300. The market has already pushed further below reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel provided support for the pair few weeks ago. The H4 chart showed a transition phase into a sideways movement that has been maintained within the depicted price range. On February 5, initial bullish breakout above 1.5220 took place. Shortly after, a new DAILY support was established around 1.5170-1.5200 (ascending bottoms, a sign of ongoing bullish momentum). Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards. Persistence of the pair above the recent DAILY support (the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200) applied extensive bullish pressure over the price level of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level on the H4 chart), which did not provide enough RESISTANCE. Now these price levels are acting as SUPPORT. The long-term projection target for the recent bullish breakout was already reached around 1.5550 where the previous DAILY bottoms were located (DAILY RESISTANCE). The GBP/USD pair has been moving upwards within the short-term bullish channel depicted on the daily chart until yesterday, when DAILY breakdown of the lower limit of the channel took place, indicating an upcoming bearish swing initially towards 1.5280. Trading recommendations: A valid SELL entry could have been taken at retesting of the price level of 1.5550. SL should be located above 1.5600. TP levels to be placed at 1.5480, 1.5360 and finally at 1.5280. Risky traders can wait for DAILY fixation below 1.5350 to take a short-term SELL entry with TP at 1.5280 and 1.5210.

Overview: The USD/CAD pair has been trending upwards within the bullish channel depicted on the WEEKLY chart. The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels as well as the 79.6% Fibonacci level. That is why a bearish correction that started off 1.2750 was anticipated in the previous articles. The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level). Note that the USD/CAD bulls have been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300 (broken 79.6% Fibonacci Level). The market has not retested the newly-established DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 yet. Note that successive lower highs are being established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the DAILY chart. DAILY closure below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located. On the other hand, the bullish persistence above 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2760-1.2780 without further retesting of 1.2000.� Trading recommendations: Wait for a DAILY closure below 1.2300 for SHORTING the USD/CAD pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2190. Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above the ENTRY levels (1.2300). ��