Why are people so reluctant to move this to Likely D? You can let go, folks.

Best guess is because people have been burned by Florida so many times in the past.

There is a pretty clear advantage built up now.

Yes. Not only that, but polls - at least polling averages - are not that inaccurate in Florida. They did pretty well in gov/presidential races and only missed the Senate races in 2012/2016 by a somewhat comfortable amount (understated the winner).