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Pretty much what Mentar has pointed out. Sayaka will die within the next 2-3 episodes, Kyouko will only add to the harm (and die too maybe), and Kyubee is watching from the sides. Homura knew Madoka before, flinching at when she said that she'd never forget her. Kamijou Touma- I mean Kamijou Kyousuke who can now leave the hospital is SO going nuts the coming episode. Happiness sure wasn't in his expression, though it may be an aftereffective after he realized wtf just happened. Sayaka's decision, imo, was too naive. And Mami warned her before, too. Gosh, this show is really beautiful in the creepy sense.

I strongly feel that how Sayaka meets her demise is just trifles. What will matter more is the grim realization of Sayaka's temptation to do good would so spectacularly usher disaster for whom she cares about.

@Mentar:

Spoiler for On Madoka:

I get the feeling that Madoka will find that even with that realization of wanting to save people and perform true miracles, she will indirectly lead to bloodshed and exact heavy price for what she wish to accomplish. If this show is to follow Faust, then ultimately Madoka has to accept that she too is mortal and that she cannot realistically save everyone... even at times, anyone, yet she must remain idealistic about the prospect of a better future. I said prior in speculation that this is key in Faust gaining his salvation, and to this I feel is key to Madoka's salvation. It's really crushing for an idealist that wants to make the world a better place see their plan causing unimaginable pain, like what Goethe saw during Napoleonic wars and what Faust saw near the end of Faust part II.

What I need to see though is whether or not Kyubey will walk and act as Madoka's foil. Mephistopheles also learned that at times, he is no devil...

@zato_1one: I like the direction greatly as well.

__________________

It would be enough for the depressing things in life to only exist in reality.
It is because that I think the birth of a story... is from people dreaming of a happy ending. ~Misaka Shiori

I just watched the raw. Although, it was expected about what happened to Sayaka but the execution of the aftermath was really well done. It could maintain the dark and creepy atmosphere. Madoka was too fear to become mahou shoujo was made sense. Impressive! I really like the direction of this series.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mentar

Yep, 100% on target. And one thing more:

Spoiler for stay away if you haven't watched ep4 yet:

I'm pretty happy because I picked up a critical flag for my main theory (Madoka and Homura have a shared joint past): During the bridge scene, Homura's reaction to Madoka's outburst that she'd NEVER EVER forget her shows that Madoka HAD forgotten her actually. And in my opinion, this is because Madoka HAD been a MG in the past, and Homura wished her out. Removing her from the grinder required that Madoka would forget about her prior life, and so, Homura. It's like Homura said: Madoka is too caring - the only way to protect her would be to keep Madoka _ignorant_ of what's really happening.

For Sayaka, things developed 100% as predicted, and I see no point to make any alterations. I foresee that Kamijo will forsake Sayaka, the only question is how brutal he's going to be when he dumps her. Sayaka will feel totally cheated and crushed, and she'll refuse to hold up her end of the MG bargain, because she didn't get what she wanted (remember Mami's warning from ep3?) - and so, she is going to be used to demonstrate the passivity rule of the blood grinder, turning her into a witch. And heck - she'll accumulate enough grief all by herself too, with Kamijou. Only one addition to last week's prediction: After turning into a witch, she will be killed by the new MG from the end of ep4. And with the disturbingly genki preview Urobuchi Gen gave Sayaka at the end of the episode, I expect her to meet her end at the end of ep5 already. No longer than ep6.

I also feel I can see the overarching theme rising out of the mists: It's about Madoka overcoming her fears and becoming a _real_ Magical Girl. The "yuuki" aspect emphasized in this show, much more than the lip service of most other MG animes.

So, as extension to my theories up to now, I say that Madoka's "wish", to call it, is going to be exactly what she told Mami: She wants to be useful as a _real_ Magical Girl, out of a feeling of duty and with the intent to truly help people and NOT as a means to an end (doing it for the wish from QB). And by becoming a true MG without the motivation of a selfish wish, she is _really_ going to gain the power to do true miracles.

I want to watch the ep with subs once more before sorting my thoughts, but IMHO this is going to be the main theme of the show. Madoka overcoming her fears, gaining true courage and becoming a real MG, other than the "fakes" that are currently active.

This is very good speculation. The theme of overcoming the fear and becomes the true hero is very refreshing for this genre. At this point, I think that it's quite certain that Madoka will become mahou shoujo in the last part of the series.

I'm pretty happy because I picked up a critical flag for my main theory (Madoka and Homura have a shared joint past): During the bridge scene, Homura's reaction to Madoka's outburst that she'd NEVER EVER forget her shows that Madoka HAD forgotten her actually. And in my opinion, this is because Madoka HAD been a MG in the past, and Homura wished her out. Removing her from the grinder required that Madoka would forget about her prior life, and so, Homura. It's like Homura said: Madoka is too caring - the only way to protect her would be to keep Madoka _ignorant_ of what's really happening.

I'm not sure I can follow this bit. Madoka said she would never forget Homura, but Homura's reaction was shown after Madoka said she would never forget that Homura saved her yesterday. Granted, this is said in the same breath, but if she wanted to react to the first half they would have cut to her hand instead of focusing on Madoka. I think the reaction is more indicative of guilt--either of her own inability to prevent Mami's death, or because of some reason that Homura haters may support.

I think Homura reaction was a result of Madoka's "I'll never forget about what you have done for me", it was close to "but you already did...", even though it was Homura's will (Homura's reaction to question regarding her own wish). I'm pretty sure Sayaka is already a death flag, her boyfriend was totally not worth her sacrifice and I think it would be better for her if she died fighting a witch, than knowing a real worth of her "beloved", I still hope she will not turn into a witch, but it feels almost solid - "curses are from what witches are born". Kyubei confirmed for evil bastard and I also have bad feeling about new Puella.
Did I mention I love SHAFT?

Looking back, Kyubey calling in a new MG to fill Mami's place seems odd since Homura is already in the area. Maybe he needs MGs he contracts (and are friendly to him) to do something for him. Kyouko's appearance will bring us the MG vs MG Mami said could happen early on, but in contrast to this witches don't seem to have conflicts with each other. Since Kyubey wasn't with Madoka and Sayaka this time, it seems that Homura is stalking shadowing Madoka and not Kyubey.

I'm not sure I can follow this bit. Madoka said she would never forget Homura, but Homura's reaction was shown after Madoka said she would never forget that Homura saved her yesterday. Granted, this is said in the same breath, but if she wanted to react to the first half they would have cut to her hand instead of focusing on Madoka.

Seems extremely far-fetched to me. Both parts (that she wouldn't forget Homura-chan, and that she would never forget that she had saved her yesterday) were hurriedly stammered by Madoka while the camera cut over to a waxen face of Homura, devoid of any life or reaction, staring into space, but closing the grip of one hand of hers. There is no indication whatsoever that this (non-)reaction was supposed to indicate her emotions only to the second half, but not to the first.

Quote:

I think the reaction is more indicative of guilt--either of her own inability to prevent Mami's death, or because of some reason that Homura haters may support.

Makes no sense. She's 100% free of guilt concerning Mami's death - she wanted to take over, was immobilized by Mami, and still warned her about the peculiarities of the witch, but was ignored. There's noone else to blame for Mami's death than Mami herself. There has never been any indication of "guilt" after Homura's rescue either.

But even more important is how Homura answered that after the brief pause: That Madoka was way too kind/caring, and that she HAD to let go and forget - because otherwise her pain would only increase. Essentially, she's telling Madoka the same thing she always had: She doesn't want Madoka's eternal gratefulness in her thoughts. She wants the opposite: To be forgotten so that Madoka can get away from this whole messy business (in my reading: That's exactly what she wished for when she removed Madoka from being a MG. It would also serve as an explanation why she did it in the past: Because Madoka's caring personality was suffering as a MG because she could NOT let go and forget in the past either).

No. This is not about personal "guilt" which would be entirely unwarranted in the first place. This is about the past, and Madoka unknowingly poked in an old painful wound, causing Homura to flinch and momentarily tugging at her mask of extreme emotional self-control.

EDIT: Heh. This is why I should wait for the subs before going into bigger detail, it's been getting even more clear when I rewatched it: Right BEFORE Madoka's outburst Homura gave Madoka the old "that's how it is as a Mahou Shoujo, you can't help it, you're going to be forgotten in the end" tune, Madoka remarks that she would definitely not forget Mami. Absolutely not! To which Homura replied that Mami would have been happy knowing this. And that Homura is feeling envious about this.

How much clearer can it possibly get? Homura is envious about Madoka's absolute determination to remember Mami. This is what prompted Madoka's outburst that she'd never forget Homura and what she did for her either. But Homura isn't happy about that, her face utters a lifeless/doubtful "Oh?". Because she knows for a fact that all good intentions notwithstanding, Madoka already HAS forgotten about her before.

Well, that's it. Without Mami being revived I'm done with paying attention to this show until the end. By which time Mami and Sayaka and ANYONE ELSE (important) who dies over the course of the series had better have been brought back to life, or I will track down this Urobuchii Gen and there will be a reckoning.

...You all can go back to what you were doing, now. I won't bother you anymore.

Makes no sense. She's 100% free of guilt concerning Mami's death - she wanted to take over, was immobilized by Mami, and still warned her about the peculiarities of the witch, but was ignored. There's noone else to blame for Mami's death than Mami herself. There has never been any indication of "guilt" after Homura's rescue either.

I think he meant Homura feels guilt when Madoka said she won't forget when in disguise she did because of Homura herself.

Seems extremely far-fetched to me. Both parts (that she wouldn't forget Homura-chan, and that she would never forget that she had saved her yesterday) were hurriedly stammered by Madoka while the camera cut over to a waxen face of Homura, devoid of any life or reaction, staring into space, but closing the grip of one hand of hers. There is no indication whatsoever that this (non-)reaction was supposed to indicate her emotions only to the second half, but not to the first.

Again, if they wanted to show the reaction to the first half of the statement they could have cut to her hand clenching and unclenching instead of showing a cut of their legs. Even as Madoka speaks the second part of the line. This would be more in line with how they handled the scene where Madoka and Homura were walking to the Nurse's office in episode one where Madoka prattles on as we watch cuts of Homura's reaction.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mentar

Makes no sense. She's 100% free of guilt concerning Mami's death - she wanted to take over, was immobilized by Mami, and still warned her about the peculiarities of the witch, but was ignored. There's noone else to blame for Mami's death than Mami herself. There has never been any indication of "guilt" after Homura's rescue either.

/snipped

No. This is not about personal "guilt" which would be entirely unwarranted in the first place. This is about the past, and Madoka unknowingly poked in an old painful wound, causing Homura to flinch and momentarily tugging at her mask of extreme emotional self-control.

Rather than guilt, maybe a range of emotions with frustration or irritation inclusive? Homura makes it clear during their conversation that she has been in the game for a while through the number of expired MGs she's given up counting, and through her fatalism about the obscure threads MGs leave behind when they die. From this conversation I find Homura to resemble a tragic hero who tried to prevent Mami fighting an enemy she couldn't beat, but through her own clumsiness in establishing trust or respect was rejected by someone she tried to save.

edit:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mentar

EDIT: Heh. This is why I should wait for the subs before going into bigger detail, it's been getting even more clear when I rewatched it: Right BEFORE Madoka's outburst Homura gave Madoka the old "that's how it is as a Mahou Shoujo, you can't help it, you're going to be forgotten in the end" tune, Madoka remarks that she would definitely not forget Mami. Absolutely not! To which Homura replied that Mami would have been happy knowing this. And that Homura is feeling envious about this.

How much clearer can it possibly get? Homura is envious about Madoka's absolute determination to remember Mami. This is what prompted Madoka's outburst that she'd never forget Homura and what she did for her either. But Homura isn't happy about that, her face utters a lifeless/doubtful "Oh?". Because she knows for a fact that all good intentions notwithstanding, Madoka already HAS forgotten about her before.

To a MG who has resigned herself to believe that MGs fight others just to die unknown, why wouldn't she be happy? I think you've become too grounded in your theory of Madoka being un-MG'd by Homura. Of course she was envious of Mami, but why do you think she knew about Mami's family/relative situation or lack thereof? Homura has obviously been looking into Mami to some degree. Why would she care if she's so focused on Madoka?

I think he meant Homura feels guilt when Madoka said she won't forget when in disguise she did because of Homura herself.

That's not what he said, no. Reread Decagon's original post.

I'm doubtful about your interpretation too, tbh. Homura explicitly said that she feels _envious_. Not guilty. And that would be a much more natural reaction, if we assume that my theory is correct. Because in this case, Homura would have made a gigantic sacrifice for Madoka's sake, while she knew at the same time that she could never expect any kind of gratitude for it - because the one person she's been doing all this for MUST NOT KNOW about it, so that she can enjoy her family life without being burdened by MG knowledge.

I'm doubtful about your interpretation too, tbh. Homura explicitly said that she feels _envious_. Not guilty. And that would be a much more natural reaction, if we assume that my theory is correct. Because in this case, Homura would have made a gigantic sacrifice for Madoka's sake, while she knew at the same time that she could never expect any kind of gratitude for it - because the one person she's been doing all this for MUST NOT KNOW about it, so that she can enjoy her family life without being burdened by MG knowledge.

Thats what I'm saying guilt. It includes envy of course but I give equal or more weight to the guilt because if Madoka now lives a normal life (while ignorant of the truth) Homura herself isn't included on Madoka's life which makes her feel envious.

Thats what I'm saying guiilt. It include envy of course but I give equal or more weight to the guilt because if Madoka now lives a normal life Homura herself isn't included on Madoka's life.

Please explain that to me... why "guilt" of all feelings?

In my theoretical scenario, the Homura of the past cared deeply for Madoka the MG, and she saw that Madoka was suffering due to her open, caring nature. So she decides to essentially take Madoka's burden and become a MG in her stead. As her wish, she chooses "Let Madoka live the life of a normal girl in a loving family, unknowing of the whole MG business".

In doing so, Homura implicitly forfeited any hope for gratitude or companionship. Instead, she'd rather even lose contact to the person dear to her, FOR HER SAKE.

Now explain to me: Why would Homura feel _guilt_ about doing this? Guilt implies wrongdoing. It would rather have been a gold-hearted sacrifice she could be proud of.

In my theoretical scenario, the Homura of the past cared deeply for Madoka the MG, and she saw that Madoka was suffering due to her open, caring nature. So she decides to essentially take Madoka's burden and become a MG in her stead. As her wish, she chooses "Let Madoka live the life of a normal girl in a loving family, unknowing of the whole MG business".

In doing so, Homura implicitly forfeited any hope for gratitude or companionship. Instead, she'd rather even lose contact to the person dear to her, FOR HER SAKE.

Now explain to me: Why would Homura feel _guilt_ about doing this? Guilt implies wrongdoing. It would rather have been a gold-hearted sacrifice she could be proud of.

Well, in my recently new theorical scenario, ha!, Homura indeed cared deeply for Madoka but as a kouhai to her as a MS in a parallel world situation were Homura's wish caused a tangent line in the course of the events. Like a videogame where you can reset the game but the scenarios and missions are still the same despite its variations of order.

Maybe she commited a wish for others sake, this case Madoka.
This is/was Homura's wish so it applies Homura's own concept about happyness on Madoka.
Yes, she did it for her sake, but she would never receive any thanks or reward from it, then she has no option but to resign to the consequences of her own desire. The resignation leads to the guilt or the dissatisfaction of a desire not thought in detail, mind Sayaka.

oh. man, homura's appearing to deeply care for madoka. and i am touched.DX these theories about the probability of her wish for the sake of madoka's happiness are to my liking and i am to approve of them. well, somehow, i finally want this show to end in hope.. and not lead to pure despair. X)

Okay, gg were madly fast this evening, so I got to watch ep4 subbed before going to sleep late at night. Wonderful ep again! Lots of insightful clues to be picked up! In fact - so many, that I'm already willing to commit on an ending prognosis.

I'll update my active theories&speculations post in the Spoilers&Speculations thread with explanations tomorrow, so for now in the final minutes only the superbrief end results:

Overarching story theme:

Spoiler:

Homura pointed it out today. The MGs at the moment don't fight for "good" or to save people, but rather for their own wishes. I expect Madoka to become a "true" MG who is going to be very powerful, because unlike the others, she's not going to contract over the simple fulfilment of a wish, but out of her genuine conviction to help and do good.

Ending prognosis:

Spoiler:

Bittersweet ending. Madoka survives and carries on as a MG, but she is going to make a big sacrifice of personal happiness for it. There will be a strongly compelling alternative for her, but she will choose to remain as MG. I even think I know exactly what the ending song will be: It will be the OP. And I'd suggest to everyone to rewatch it again under the assumption that it's rather going to be the final song of the show.

What this alternative will be: Impossible to tell yet. The speculation I currently like the most: Elimination of current MGs except for herself - resetting them into their normal lives. So, in a way, she's going to return Homura's wish of the past back to her. This ending would make the story come full circle, and it would have a fittingly bittersweet-painful component: Doing this would force a separation of Madoka and Homura again, who I expect to get almost-lovers-close over the course of the anime. Still, this speculation is merely 10% atm.