Friday, November 18, 2011

The price of success

Starting pitcher:
M.C. O'Connor

Only Baseball Matters has a post that echoes what we've talked about here, namely that Clayton Kershaw ought to thank the Giants for his newly-minted CYA. He had a sensational season, and was a deserving winner, but if I were a Phillies fan I'd feel like Roy Halladay was robbed. After all, Halladay led all pitchers with 8.2 WAR (Kershaw was 2nd in the NL with 6.8 but 4th overall behind C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander) and with a 2.20 FIP, and lead the NL with a 164 ERA+. He completed 8 of his 32 starts and only walked 35 guys and gave up 10 HR in 233-2/3 IP. However you slice it, the guy was a beast, and pitched in a little tougher park to boot. But I don't get too excited about the BBWAA these days. I don't really care who gets what trophy. The only one that matters is the shiny one with all the flags on it. What I find interesting is that young Mr. Kershaw (he'll be 24 in March) is still under the Dodgers control. He goes to arbitration for the first time this off-season and won't be a free agent until 2015. Mr. Halladay makes $20M/year. That brings me to the Giants "co-aces." Matt Cain needs an extension (FA 2013) and would not be unreasonable asking for more than the $15M he'll make this season. Four years, $70M? Tim Lincecum is looking at two more seasons of arbitration (FA 2014) and will no doubt get a raise ($14M in 2011). Could they get him to sign for four years and $85M? The Giants still have the cost-controlled studliness of Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, and Buster Posey, a nice little core of young talent any team would envy. The Dodgers just pulled a stunner, locking up superstar Matt Kemp for EIGHT years (reputedly worth $160M). He'll be in Dodger blue until he is 34! I don't see the Giants doing that after the Barry Zito fiasco. Barry Bonds signed a 7-year deal in 1993, but that was so long ago no one remembers. Bob Quinn was the GM at the time in case you forgot. Speaking of team leadership, Larry Baer is the New Sheriff in Town, having just gotten the nod from the Owner's Cabal to be the team's vote-caster. It is hard to say what that means. I expect things won't change a whole lot, but there is a sort of Robespierre-like mien to him, wouldn't you say? As long as his Reign of Terror nets more shiny trophies, I'll look the other way when the guillotine falls.

8 comments:

I love it that four Giants pitchers got Cy Young votes- Lincecum came in 6th with 1 4th place vote and 5 5th place votes, Cain got 1 vote each for 4th and 5th, and Vogelsong and Madbum each got one 5th place vote.Kershaw won the pitching triple crown on a mediocre team. Most wins (tied) most Ks, best ERA. End of discussion. But for baseball lovers no discussion need ever end, and hooray for that.And I disagree with the hoary notion that "The only (trophy) that matters is the shiny one with all the flags on it." It all matters. Don't give us that Vince Lombardi crap.

We all loved it, when Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young ... but that was before we won a title. I agree with Mark - the title is all that really matters, & we won it with a group which won only one individual honor (Buster). In some respects, it was even more satisfying that we won it without an MVP or a Cy Young winner or a Silver Slugger or a Gold Glove winner.

Context is everything. Kershaw pitched a 9 of 33 games against the Padres and Giants, the two weakest offenses in baseball. Here's the tally: 67-1/3 IP, 45 hits, 13 walks, 64 K, 3 HR, 11 runs, and an 8-0 record. Look, the guy is great, and we are splitting hairs, but winning the "ERA title" is pretty meaningless when the separation is two runs over the course of a season. Kershaw 59 ER in 233-1/3 IP (2.28), Halladay 61 ER in 233-2/3 IP (2.35). Halladay pitched in a tougher run environment, that's why Halladay rated ahead in ERA+ (164 to 163), which I grant you is pretty meaningless, too. Kershaw, impressive though he was, wasn't better. He just ended with flashier numbers, mostly because of the Giants. Like I said, I don't really care. It is FUN when individual Giants win things, but that's it. I want the big, shiny prize. That's way beyond fun, and has nothing to do with that psycho who used to work in Wisconsin.

Maybe one reason why the giants and padres had such poor hitting teams was that they each had to face Kershaw 4 times. If I remember from 2010, the giants fared ok against the big Philly righthander. Kershaw is another story. If you put a lot of weight on complete games, and how that pitching so deep into games consistently has a negative impact on ones era, than perhaps there is another case to be made. I know stamina has been a problem with Lincecum in the majors. I think the difference in complete games between Kershaw and Halladay had as much to do with their respective managers.

Rumors about the Giants scare me. Now, after losing out on the 'race to sign Clint Barmes', we apparently may be interested in signing the guy the PIRATES (read that again ... the PIRATES) passed on - Ronny Cedeno. This guy is an atrocious hitter & a marginal SS. Why we would have any interest in a player like that boggles the mind. If our idea of a SS search amounts to just lowering our sights, every time someone that we are considering drops off the radar, then we might as well just say 'Hello' to 3rd or 4th place. By the way, Cedeno is from Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, hometown of the Panda.

If we do not intend to sign a real SS, then we must sign Cain-Lincecum-Beltran, & just go with Crawford.

And don't tell me about Jeff Keppinger. He's just another version of the same crappy trend.

Beltran is the key to us having a credible lineup. If we don't waste $4 or 5M on a crappy SS, we can certainly afford Beltran.