8. Light-duty road passenger transport

This category
includes passenger vehicles up to nine persons per vehicle and 3.5 tons of
gross vehicle weight (IEA 2012a). Most of the GHG emissions in this sector are
caused by combustion of fossil fuels either directly in an internal combustion
engine, or indirectly through the generation of electricity in electric
vehicles.

The transport
sector will grow significantly by 2050 in terms of revenue passenger kilometers,
especially in non-OECD regions, where increasing wealth is driving
motorization. In 2010, the revenue passenger kilometers of light-road passenger
vehicles were almost 28 trillion. In 2050, it is expected to increase to 50
trillion revenue passenger kilometers, an increase of roughly 79 percent.

The CO2
emissions from the use of light-duty vehicles were just below 2.9 Gt in 2010
and are targeted to decrease to 1.2 Gt in 2050,
a decrease of roughly 58 percent. This decrease is in line with the 60 percent
reduction potential decrease from 2010 to 2050 estimated by the IPCC (IPCC
2014a). A wide range of reduction technologies are available (e.g. hybrid drive
trains, increased aerodynamics, weight reduction, fuel cell vehicles, biofuels,
eco-driving, full electric battery vehicles) (IPCC
2014a). To help unlock this potential, IEA describes three reduction strategies
in the IEA ETP 2014 2DS scenario: avoid, shift, and improve. Avoid slows
individual travel growth via city planning and demand management. Shift enables
people and business to shift to more efficient modes, such as rail. Improve
encourages the adoption of new technologies and fuels.

Figure I.8
shows the absolute emissions from light-duty vehicle use first having a small
increase of 4 percent up to 2015 due to increased activity. In 2050, the
emissions are modeled to decline to 42 percent of 2010 levels. This means that
the intensity in 2050 needs to be 76 percent lower than in 2010 to remain in
line with this sector’s 2oC decarbonization pathway.

Figure I.8 Cars and light
trucks will continue growth in activity, but need to reduce carbon intensity by
76 percent by 2050