December, 2011

No doubt about it. We are looking at a wetter weather pattern in the next 10 days. With a little cold in the mix it’s even possible to see our first snow. Don’t get your hopes up too high just yet though. Let’s start with the short-term, and then we’ll look further out to the extended.

We have quiet weather in place here, but there is a big storm system in the west that has dropped several inches of snow across parts of Kansas, Texas, and Colorado.

National Satellite/Radar

The system is slowly moving east, but it is pumping in the warmth and moisture out ahead of it. This will play into our forecast tomorrow. Locally, this morning wasn’t bad in terms of temperatures. We had persistent southerly winds last night, and so temperatures were in the upper 40s to near 50 in many locations. Later today a weak cool front will come in from north of D.C. and drop or hold steady half of the areas temperatures.

Front Will Affect Afternoon Temps

The front will stall out right on top of us. So it will hard to pick out exactly where it will stop. I’ve done my best. Highs will be in the 60s south of the front. Tonight the front will already push back to the north as a warm front. This will really set us up for tomorrow. We do expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with scattered showers. High temperatures will be able to reach up to around 70 coming off of a mild start near 50 and using the southerly winds through the day:

Tomorrow's Weather Forecast

Even after the cold front moves through on Thursday we will not cool down that much. In fact that cold front will stall just south of us and will make for a tough weekend forecast.

The long-term models are split as to when an area of low pressure will try to form and move along the front. The timing for this discrepancy couldn’t be worse as it will be between Christmas Eve and Christmas.

All of the models have at least some rain on Friday. Scattered showers with what looks like overruning will take place. The GFS is looking drier lately. Last night’s run (0Z (Z as in Zulu) had heavy rain on Saturday, dry for Sunday, and then a close call on Monday with some snow possible. The overnight run (6Z) now doesn’t have much for Saturday, then dry for Sunday and Monday with precipitation farther offshore on Monday now. The Canadian model has it dry for Saturday and very wet for Sunday. It actually keeps it wet through Wednesday, but no snow here. The European model has a spotty shower on Saturday, very wet on Sunday, and then dry on Monday. All I want is quiet weather on Sunday so that I don’t have to come in to work. It’s hard to tell which way these will trend. Lately a lot of the weather systems coming across the country have moved slower than forecast. So slower and warmer would be a good bet through Saturday. A lot of the systems have also had little rain locally, but they have put down some heavier rain outside of the viewing area. It’s still early and the morning model runs (12z) will be coming out soon. So we’ll have to wait for the models to make up their mind. Despite the discrepancy, the models are definitely throwing up a strong signal for a pattern change.

We had a chilly weekend with highs in the 40s both days. The average high is in the low 50s this time of year. It was chilly, but I didn’t mind as it reminded me of the holidays back home in Illinois. We had a cold morning with temperatures in the 20s and 30s.

This Morning's Temperatures

There will be another big swing in temperatures as we go into the afternoon. In fact we’ll likely warm up 25-30 degrees. The main contributors to the warmth…Southwest winds, dry conditions, and a lot of sunshine. This will put lift temps to the mid 50s with a few upper 50s inland.

Today's Forecast

Tonight won’t be as cold as the southwest winds will remain. So lows will be more in the upper 30s to near 40. Tomorrow a weak back door cold front will drop the temperatures a couple of degrees. This will quickly transform into a warm front though and let the warmth lift back in by Tuesday night. Then of course Wednesday will be a very warm day with highs near 70. There will be a good chance for rain that day though. So a little wet for the first night of Hannukah.

At this time Christmas Eve is looking wet. Both the GFS and European models have thrown rain into the forecast for that day. So Showers are a good bet. It will just be too warm for any snow. The Canadian model is dry for Saturday, but this is 1 out of 3 solutions. It actually brings the system in on Christmas with the possibility of a few flakes of snow on the tail end Sunday night. Outside of a few flakes the forecast just looks like a cold rain. At least the other 2 models agree on a dry forecast for Sunday.

Further down the road the GFS does hint as the possibility of our first snow on the Monday following Christmas. This is pretty far out in time though, so it’s more of a side-note than a forecast. Plenty of time for the forecast to change either way, but things are getting interesting.

We have a chilly weekend ahead. After several warm days this last week, we will have more seasonal temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. In fact we’ll be a bit below the average high of 53. We started this morning with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. With winds out of the north at 10-15mph and higher gusts, highs will only be in the upper 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy, but some thicker clouds may move in for a while this afternoon.

Today's Weather Forecast

Tonight we’ll have partly cloudy skies, but the winds will lighten up. This will let the lows drop down to the upper 20s to low 30s. With the chilly start and northerly winds tomorrow we’ll only see highs in the mid-upper 40s.

Early next week we’ll start warming up a bit into the 50s. We’ll get back to the 60s by next Wednesday. Have a good weekend!

It’s very warm this morning, but that’s no surprise. We started with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. The cold front is still west of Richmond and Emporia. This front will move in later this morning and start dropping temperatures by midday. Until then it will be very nice. Skies will be mostly cloudy today, but the showers won’t really start up until later this afternoon. This will be behind the front.

Today's Forecast

The rain chances will go up even more tonight, but the amounts won’t be too impressive. We are expecting about a quarter to a half an inch. We could actually use some rain. While it’s not the growing season, it is good to get some occasional rain to stay normal. Norfolk is down 1.32″ for the month for rain, but they are up 4.95″ for the year. Elizabeth City is down 1.07″ for the month, but they are also down 11.6″ for the year. Even with Irene this last year North Carolina had a very dry stretch.

So scattered showers will move in tonight and last until about 4-7am tomorrow morning. After that we will be dry, but chilly. Highs over the weekend will be in the upper 40s. While that sounds chilly, truth be told, it’s only a little below the average high of 53. By the way, we hit 69 degrees yesterday at Norfolk international. We’ll warm up again next week. We’ll see some more 60s by next Tuesday. The up and down temps will probably continue through Christmas. Have a good weekend.

Sunshine is replaced by encroaching darkness; it’s a cloak nature throws over us for the coming winter. Those early evenings, once a stage for warm sunsets, exude a blue chill that can only be warmed by the fireplace and the soft electric colors that dot the skylines and hillsides. They provide gentle illumination that comes but in December, when our spirits open to Christmas. These shots are but a few I recorded in recent days as the skies turned a deep blue–a backdrop for warm yellows and reds, and faded greens and blues that light the way to another holiday season. Enjoy this Christmas walk through parts of Norfolk, Virginia Beach, and Williamsburg–a holiday view of Hampton Roads, through the lens.

As advertised it is turning into a warm and breezy day. We’re already in the mid 50s and it’s only 10am. We’re not the only ones who are warm. There is a surge of warmth for a huge section of the eastern United States.

Forecast Highs For the Nation

It’s not too unusual to see this kind of warming here this time of year, but it is unusual to see the degree of warming that is happening up in the Midwest and the Plains states. It’s so warm in fact that instead of December snow showers in Canada there is a cold rain falling this morning.

Satellite/Radar

So the big question…. How warm is it going to get today? The models have been persistent in putting our high temperatures in the upper 60s. So that’s where we will end up. I doubt we’ll have too many 70s, but one or two of those readings are possible inland. Strong high pressure lies just to our south and is producing fair skies for today. It’s also pumping in some strong southwest winds that will help to boost those numbers.

Today's Weather Map

So enjoy the nice warm weather today because tomorrow the cold front will move through. The front won’t move through quickly though. So even early tomorrow will be warm. We’ll start in the mid 50s and rise up to near 60. After the front moves through in the late morning then temperatures will drop into the low 50s for the afternoon.

Cold Front Moves In Tomorrow

As far as the rain goes…we’ll see a few spotty showers in the morning as the front passes, but most of the showers will hold off until the afternoon. This will be behind the front, so it will be a chilly rain later in the day. By the way we are down 1.22″ for the month so far for rainfall. We are still 5.05″ above the average rainfall for the year. You can thank Irene for a lot of that.

This weekend will be pretty chilly compared to today. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. A few showers are possible early Saturday, but the rest of the weekend will be dry.

It’s not too crazy, but the weather across the country is not running it’s business as usual. Here is a national map of the satellite/radar.

National Satellite/Radar

Notice how far north the rain reaches. It goes all the way up into Michigan. Typically by this time of year the rain is at least a rain/sleet/snow mix, but today it is solid rain. There is some snow in Minnesota, but there is some mix there as well. There is some snow in the 4 corners region and the northwest states as well. Look at the national forecast high temperatures for today:

National Forecast High Temps

Warm temperatures will push into parts of the Midwest with some stations in record territory. However, we won’t see that warm push here just yet. Instead an area of high pressure to our our west will keep pushing in cool northerly winds. So highs will be in the 50s.

Today's Forecast

The winds will turn out of the south tonight. The high will begin a quick move to the southeast. So lows overnight will be in the 40s area wide. In fact temps may warm up a bit overnight. Then tomorrow the winds will be strong and out of the southwest with gusts up to 25mph. Highs will surge into the upper 60s with a few highs near 70 not out of the question. It will be partly sunny and really just a gorgeous day out.

Tomorrow's Forecast

The next cold front will push in on Friday and will bring a few showers. Probably late in the day, but I can’t rule out a quick shower in the morning. The front won’t push out the heat right away. So highs will be near 60, but will probably drop in the afternoon to the 50s. Then (as last weekend) highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 Saturday and Sunday. We will see a few showers early on Saturday hopefully pushing out in time for folks to get their holiday shopping done. Ahem. Not that I still have some to do…. Sunday will be dry.

Well….meteorologist Sagay Galindo wrote a blog yesterday about how she is leaving the station. Her husband is in the Navy and he got stationed out west. So they are packing up and moving. She has done a great job here at WAVY, and she will be missed. We’ll have a new person joining the team soon (details t.b.a.), and hopefully a 4th in the near future as well. So of course since we are temporarily short staffed I’m naturally wondering when all heck will break loose in the weather.

If you’re a snow lover, then you got really spoiled over the last 2 years. This year has been different though, and is likely to be different through early 2012. In December of 2010 we had snow in the first week, and high temperatures after that stayed in the 30s and 40s. Lately we’ve had some warm spells that have brought us high temps in the 60s and 70s. This last weekend was a bit chilly with highs in the 40s and 50s, but that’s pretty seasonable. The average high is 53. We’ll warm up a bit today with some mid 50s showing up. (60s over the Outer Banks). We will warm it up even more by midweek. Highs will spike to the upper 60s on Wednesday out ahead of another cold front. The front will drop temperatures this weekend. Highs could be back in the upper 40s Saturday and Sunday, but for now are aiming for the low 50s.

The bay temperature is in the low 50s. You typically want that to drop to at least the mid 40s to be able to get snow. (few exceptions) So all of this means that there is no chance for snow in the 7-10 days forecast. In fact a big portion of the country is running dry lately. There is a lot of drought which is spreading across the deep south and the southeast. US Drought Monitor However, the northeast and California are doing fine in terms of precip.

Unless the pattern changes, then I doubt all heck will break loose in the short term. It’s actually nice to get a breather after the crazy weather we had over the last couple of years. I’m still thinking the big cool down will come closer to the new year. As always…we’ll see.

It is so crazy that this is my final blog, at least for now. I remember having to do my very first one and dreading it. I wanted to blog as good as my colleague Jeremy Wheeler and though I don’t blog anywhere near JW’s calibur, it has become something that I enjoy doing.

For those of you who have not heard, this is my last day. My husband is in the Navy and we are headed to the west coast. I would like to thank all of you who allowed me to come into your homes weekend after weekend, pregnant, normal build, tired, energetic. It has long been a dream of mine to broadcast weather in my hometown and I am so blessed to say that I was able to do so.

I don’t want to drag this out but I just want to express my sincere thanks to all the viewers and to my WAVY News 10 family, you guys rock. I will miss you all dearly. Thanks for all of the love and support.

Well I’ll make this a short blog today as there are really no big headlines. We’ll be a little warmer today with highs in the mid-upper 50s. We could catch a sprinkle along the coast as some light moisture comes up from the south. Otherwise we’ll have partly cloudy skies. Tonight a strong cold front will move through. We’ll have clouds and a few sprinkles across the region. With the winds picking up and mixing the air, low temperatures will only be near 40. However, tomorrow’s high temperatures will only rise up to the upper 40s. We’ll have some strong north winds tomorrow gusting to 25mph, then Sunday will have a northeast wind again gusting up to 25mph. The highs will be in the mid-upper 40s on Sunday after starting in the 20s and 30s. We’ll be a little milder early next week. Have a good weekend.