Ghana Agribusiness Market: New market information published

We continue to expect only minor production growth in Ghana´s cocoa sector in the short term owing to harvest delays on the back of dry weather, and there are considerable downside risks to production due to a decision by the Ghanaian government to end a fertiliser subsidy programme. Over the long term, we forecast relatively pedestrian growth in cocoa production owing to reduced farm revenues and structural concerns in the sector, particularly related to labour. We forecast mild production growth for Ghanaian corn in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season. Over the long term, however, we believe the country is likely to run a deficit due to strong demand. For livestock, we continue to expect Ghana

to be a growing net importer of poultry over the long term on the back of strong demand growth.

Key Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 28.2% to 1.1mn tonnes. Most of this growth will be due to base effects; however, we also expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term owing to poor supply prospects.

- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 15.0% to 1.95mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, government-subsidised fertilisers for corn as well as technical support will lead to a mild increase in production.

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