GREAT story Agri! Bartow County… been there. They put the ‘red’ in redneck! They probably pissed on themselves, just like a dog does when he’s all overly excited, when they thought they had a big bust. Stupid muther-f….

But wait! Inflation is based on the price of certain goods in the cesta basica. That means beans, rice and milk etc. This is deliberately kept (manipulated) to a low level in order to avoid chaos. That chaos being the fact that all the public salaries and public pensions are linked to the rate of inflation and showing a true rate would mean annually adjusting (increasing) those payments to match the true level of inflation. Anyone who buys goods and services that are not in the cesta basica knows full well that the true rate of inflation here is running at 15 – 20 %.

[QUOTE=man of leisure]But wait! Inflation is based on the price of certain goods in the cesta basica. That means beans, rice and milk etc. This is deliberately kept (manipulated) to a low level in order to avoid chaos. That chaos being the fact that all the public salaries and public pensions are linked to the rate of inflation and showing a true rate would mean annually adjusting (increasing) those payments to match the true level of inflation. Anyone who buys goods and services that are not in the cesta basica knows full well that the true rate of inflation here is running at 15 – 20 %.[/QUOTE]

100% true! So imagine what the real inflation would be IF they were officially reporting 12%!!!

On another note, this is must be what Fox news feels like without the embarrassment afterwards for misreporting.

So the best recession busting technique for the coming years will be to survive on the contents of the cesta basica and supplement it with home grown produce. I’m heading out to the country until all this blows over!

Only some of the time – I live mid-week in SP and in the country from Friday – Monday normally. However, come year end, I am making the move full time and doing a commute into SP. It shouldn’t be too bad – most of my work is actually in Central America, Caribbean and Mexico, so I will change my working hours in the office from 11am – 8pm and miss the worst of the traffic both ways. I will still sleep in SP two nights a week I think (I have some pretty inconvenient conference calls that start at 11pm each week) but even allowing for two nights in a hotel in SP near the office and the petrol, it should be quite a saving over keeping a rental flat in the city with all those costs. Add to that waking up in the country, walking my dogs each morning and tending to my veg patch, and quality of life should improve somewhat!

[QUOTE=finrudd]Add to that waking up in the country, walking my dogs each morning and tending to my veg patch, and quality of life should improve somewhat![/QUOTE] Now you’re talking! However, on the sitio where I’m presently renting, there’s a damn rooster that starts with a wake up call at 03:30! If I could catch him, I’d roast him!!!

There isn’t a lot of data in the graph, because it hasn’t shown a cycle we’ve had in the last 20 years or so. What would be interesting is to see something like this for all the latin american countries, because with that data, I think you could predict something a lot more readily.

If you go to tradingeconomics.com you can pull up such data for other countries, as well as a more recent timeline for Brasil. Zummbot posted a link in the Exchange Rate thread. I posted a link there too, an insightful article about how Brasil beat hyper-inflation. There just happened to be an excellent ‘alignment’ of the right circumstances; Collor had been impeached, Itamar Franco signed off on whatever his finance ministers recommended, a bunch of congressmen and governors had been accused of embezzlement (what’s new?) so were not able to interfere. It was a ‘perfect storm’, but in a good sense.Will post article again here too. Well worth reading!How Brazil Beat HyperinflationI really don’t think you can compare Brasil’s economy with the rest of Latin America for meaningful predictions as to where we might be headed. For example, Chile and Argentina’s economies is like comparing apples to oranges.Gringo.Serrano2014-10-09 12:17:13

I think the rest of latin america takes its own paths, but they all follow the same rules, same culture, and same economic outlook. No one is doing great, they take off, then they fall apart, then they struggle with different ways to keeping afloat but ultimately they have a major crash.

Corruption, greece style banking and spending, voting that puts populist governments in power. It just ends up creating the same results when viewed over a decade or two.

“Compared with most common diseases, Ebola is not particularly infectious. The primary risk of catching Ebola comes from the bodily fluids of people who are visibly infected â‚Ç¨ primarily their blood, saliva, vomit and (possibly) sweat. These can transmit the disease if they make contact with the mucus membranes (lining of your nose, mouth, and similar areas).

[QUOTE=3casas]i find it extremely interesting that the ebola patient was diagnosed (ish) and moved and we heard nary a word til it was done. sounds much more coordinated than i would have expected.[/QUOTE]The official diagnosis will take a day to come. I’m still concerned by the opaqueness of it, though.

“Compared with most common diseases, Ebola is not particularly infectious. The primary risk of catching Ebola comes from the bodily fluids of people who are visibly infected â‚Ç¨ primarily their blood, saliva, vomit and (possibly) sweat. These can transmit the disease if they make contact with the mucus membranes (lining of your nose, mouth, and similar areas).

[QUOTE=man of leisure]But wait! Inflation is based on the price of certain goods in the cesta basica. That means beans, rice and milk etc. This is deliberately kept (manipulated) to a low level in order to avoid chaos. That chaos being the fact that all the public salaries and public pensions are linked to the rate of inflation and showing a true rate would mean annually adjusting (increasing) those payments to match the true level of inflation. Anyone who buys goods and services that are not in the cesta basica knows full well that the true rate of inflation here is running at 15 – 20 %.[/QUOTE]

Dug up an old thread with some updated info. Per my post above, this year so far I have seen an increase of 15% in my plano de saude, schools for the kids and social club fees (Flu in Laranjeiras). Now OGlobo have posted on their site that Light (Electricity supplier in Rio) have just announced a 17% increase with immediate effect.

school fees went through the roof here. i was shocked. the kid, shockingly, has opted to stay in the public (she was there treading water after last year when we moved her midyear and she had to repeat).

Cesta basica today, at the cheap grocery, was $55. I want to say I remember seeing 30.

that said, we are opting to lock in the prices for some larger priced things now before the roof starts to rise (kid’s braces and two elective surgeries that need to be taken care of). never have been so glad that we bought this house a few years ago and have the payment fixed. now we just buckle up and see what happens, i guess.

What always amazes me is that Brazilians never seem to complain about rising prices.I think it is all about wanting to appear rich. If you complain it is almost as if you are conceding you can’t afford it.School fees up and now they charge extra for sports. Healthcare up. Price of beer has gone through the roof (a beer on the sea front is now the same price as in central London). Diarista now wants R$ 140 per day + lunch.I noticed that fines for traffic offences are to go up, in some cases up 1000%. I was done this week for doing 68km/ph in a 60 zone on the motorway.Coming into summer season the traders on the beach are setting their prices, almost a 50% increase on last year for churros and milho.But if you complain you are a pobre.

[QUOTE=3casas]school fees went through the roof here. i was shocked. the kid, shockingly, has opted to stay in the public (she was there treading water after last year when we moved her midyear and she had to repeat).

[/QUOTE]

This is Brazil wide and with little explanation. I was given a pamphlet on how to handle parents inquiries. IT pretty much tells you how to give them the run a round. Just so you know, the aumento for teachers and administrators was one of the lowest in years……F***ing Brazil……

Parts 1 and 2 are actually elementary, especially to any fan of The Austrian School of economics. Yet Part 3 is very insightful on how governments/central banks use inflation as a form of taxation, an indirect confiscation of our income.

Inflation is a way of taxing the RICH and a way to force people to invest.

If you’re poor, you’ll be hurt a bit. If you make $15/hour, you will feel some pressure for a couple of years. It will be sad, but you’ll get a new job and get your $15/hour back. You never saved money before, you had it a little rough, and now you’re back to where you started with no money saved anyway.

Now, if you have 100M in the bank, and inflation is running at 12%, if you don’t get of your ass in gear and do something, in 4 years, you will have 50M. In 4 more years, you’ll have 25M!

#1 rule in investing — don’t lose your capital

#2 rule in investing — don’t lose your capital

#3 rule in investing — don’t lose your capital

No where, does it say you need to make more money, just don’t lose your capital.

This is why the US is having issues, they have almost no inflation right now, so the rich are just holding onto their money. There is no reason to invest anywhere, when you don’t have to.

It would make sense to be moving capital out of Brazil to reduce the inflationary hit for the next few years!I was reading just this morning about some properties in new developments being sold in weekend ‘sales’ in Sao Paulo. Some that had sold off-plan at the peak some months ago for R$680k for 34 square metre apartments, sold this weekend for R$400k or something like that – a 40% reduction this year. That is a very real sense of the issue that lots of people in this country are facing – those people who bought in the peak are now looking at negative equity for years to come, and the investment potential is also hit. So – what DO you put your capital into, assuming it stays in Brazil to preserve it?

Cheaper land. Land that developers are trying to get rid of now, because they have too much inventory. That will hold it’s value decently well. When the market really turns south, it will hold most of its value.

When things start turning around, it will go for a premium again. But it won’t be liquid for sure! But at least you won’t over pay for it, and it will bounce back in probably 5 years. Better than losing it all.

IPTU is pretty low compared to everywhere else I’ve seen. It’s probably a good thing. It will cause people to pay a bit more for land they just hold onto because it costs them nothing to hold onto. It will also push housing prices down, as the maximum people can afford for housing will drop by a tiny bit as well.

Every city I’ve been in, there are always a few undeveloped lots, even in highly desirable areas. Lots where people are just sitting on the land, because it costs them nothing to do so, yet it really ruins a neighbourhood. Raising this up, above inflation, should help cure that at least partially.

The interesting thing is that IPTU should follow house values, and house values follow inflation already, so this is already inflation indexed.

[QUOTE=3casas]ours went up by at least 40%. at home it isn’t that big of a deal but at the shop, the way the lifts suck the electricity, it was painful.

[/QUOTE]

Glad that we re-wired the house recently and put in the DR/DPS thing – having the fusebox correctly designed, and the right cables for the right connections reduced the electrical consumption by around 35%. Not that easy to calculate entirely, but we have seen a consistent drop in the KwH used since we have re-cabled. It may well be time to consider this – if you can, use 220v for as many heavy appliances as you can which are thought to be more energy efficient, and start paying attention to those little labels on fridges and freezers as to how energy efficient they are!As for IPTU – it will snow-ball effect the whole housing situation I imagine. Lots of people who bought investment property will now find that their costs rise, squeezing their margin. Good point about the vacant plots though!

I installed LED lights in parts of our shop. Resulted in a 20% reduction in consumption. So overall, with recent rate increases, our bill is about flat compared to a year ago. Still expecting an additional 15-20% increase in the coming 3 months.

I really wish I had made time for those solar panels I was going to bring down with me! Just 4 of them would have made such a huge difference!

Your AC is going to chew up the most power though, you should look into turning it up a few degrees, and to killing it about 30 minutes before closing time. That would probably kill your bill a decent amount.

GF found a company selling cheap solar panels down here (well only 100% over the US versus the 400% I see elsewhere…)

LED lights only save about 15% over CFL lights, but they are definitely better for spot lighting, and less great for their area of effect lighting.

[QUOTE=tbird]I installed LED lights in parts of our shop. Resulted in a 20% reduction in consumption. So overall, with recent rate increases, our bill is about flat compared to a year ago. Still expecting an additional 15-20% increase in the coming 3 months.[/QUOTE]

I have been put off by the silly prices charged for LED in Brazil – I looked at some IP67 LED spotlights for external uplighters, and the price difference between the lamps with no guarantee and the ones with guarantee of x hours was massive! These are the type with a bank of say 20 x 20 individual LED ‘bulbs’, compared to the expensive ones, which is one single LED about 1cm x 1cm – the flat type. If I am coughing up the price for LED, I want it to consume less, but last longer too!How are yours working out in terms of longevity and how clean is your electrical network?

If you look on a place like deal extreme, you can get pretty good prices shipped to Brazil. Even after taxes it would be a screaming deal compared with what you get here. Although I haven’t ordered anything myself from them to Brazil, only the US/Canada. They can be great for those small ticket items that add up.

The advantage to LED bulbs is apparently their life, which should be 20 years and they are dimmable and better suited to voltage fluctuations. But in terms of saving power, it’s very minimal over a CFL.

a 20 year lifespan would be very interesting – that would start to give a good ROI, but my fear is that 20 years could be 20 minutes on a dodgy electrical installation like I see in many houses in Brazil! I have drive lighting that using the low-energy type bulbs – I use Philips models that have a one year guarantee, and I am routinely taking them back when they die within that year. In fairness, they are changed without question, but that’s on a new installation with new underground cabling in conduit and with it’s own circuit – a total of 8 bulbs maybe…hence my fear about the investment needed for LED.

LEDs for the garden are great. The green ones illuminate well. But for interior lighting, give me halogen! It’s the one bulb that mimics actual sunlight the best, and on a dimmer, is the way to go for interior lighting. AFIK, LEDs can’t be dimmed (but finrudd, you say they can?). Still, a ‘white’ LED is too blue/cool for me.Gringo.Serrano2014-12-03 17:30:08

Okay, ‘illuminate’ me please (forgive the pun)…. Define the difference in Light Emitting Diode as an upper case acronym, versus lower case (LED vs led).Sorry for my ignorance, but here in the hill country, I have to drive three hours, round trip, just to buy fooking plywood! Lack of internet doesn’t help my ignorance.While living in Floripa, I paid something absurd like R$30 per bulb, for a LED/led bulb to use as outdoor lighting. As I previously mentioned, the green bulbs worked great; blue was nice too. But the white bulbs were very weak as for the level of illumination they provided outside, and too ‘cool’ and weak to consider for interior lighting. I had probably 90% of the interior lighting on dimmers (using halogen bulbs, but which screwed into your basic socket, not using pins).The local electricians thought I was nuts because of all the dimmers, but my retort was, “Do you always listen to music at the SAME volume?” Bad question, because most Brazzers listen to music at only one volume… the level that busted the cones in the speaker so that all you really hear is an annoying buzz.

[QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]Okay, ‘illuminate’ me please (forgive the pun)…. Define the difference in Light Emitting Diode as an upper case acronym, versus lower case (LED vs led).Sorry for my ignorance, but here in the hill country, I have to drive three hours, round trip, just to buy fooking plywood! Lack of internet doesn’t help my ignorance.While living in Floripa, I paid something absurd like R$30 per bulb, for a LED/led bulb to use as outdoor lighting. As I previously mentioned, the green bulbs worked great; blue was nice too. But the white bulbs were very weak as for the level of illumination they provided outside, and too ‘cool’ and weak to consider for interior lighting. I had probably 90% of the interior lighting on dimmers (using halogen bulbs, but which screwed into your basic socket, not using pins).The local electricians thought I was nuts because of all the dimmers, but my retort was, “Do you always listen to music at the SAME volume?” Bad question, because most Brazzers listen to music at only one volume… the level that busted the cones in the speaker so that all you really hear is an annoying buzz. [/QUOTE]

I have no idea about LED v led or if this was a typo. I have one of those Philips mood lamps that I bought in Singapore, which is LED (now I dont know if its LED or led ) but it can do any colour by creating some sort of mix.

Interesting that the Green LED worked well – for the garden uplighters, I was looking for something weatherproof and fairly low power, and assumed I would need to put one of those coloured jellies over the glass to give it colour – had not thought of actually getting a green coloured light in the first place.

Yeah, LEDs off topic, but that’s the forum. ;-)For garden illumination, try the green bulbs. The ones I used consumed just a few watts (5w or less, I don’t recall now), but put out good light, especially in series to uplight foliage or wash a wall.)

[QUOTE=Gringo.Serrano]Yeah, LEDs off topic, but that’s the forum. ;-)[/QUOTE]Ain’t that the truth! For interior lighting I now use strictly halogen and LED. I like the halogen effect especially over my bar area, and I actually prefer the LEDs aesthetically to the drab industrial-feel of the CFLs (also nice to get all that mercury out of the residence). Economically as has been pointed out there is only marginal advantage if any over the CFLs, especially here with the inflated cost of LEDs. miguel2014-12-04 16:35:48

At least the liter Brahma is 4.5 reais whilst the 600ml is 4.0. At the crappy plastic seat neighborhood bar. Another 400 ml for 50 centavos! Just like the good old days! Must be a PT election scheme tax break soon to be revoked like the tax breaks on cars, gas, and kitchen appliances. Inflation is was above 12%.

One of those Styrofoam thingys of pork chops was R$3 just three years ago. Now they are R$9. Three times more expensive! Chicken, the same!!!!!!! I too believe that real inflation is way above the 12% I erroneously reported when I started this thread.

Russia. Embargos are forcing Russia to look elsewhere for it’s meat and other food items. Thus Brazilians are now competing with Russia. While it probably isn’t a huge amount, it’s also something the Brazilian market wasn’t ready for.

Brazilians are eating out more (not the last 3 years, but over the last 10-15 years), and willing to pay more I’m betting to eat out. Food has improved quite a bit I’ve heard, although probably just the major cities, and probably mostly in SP. I’m guessing they realized they could charge more for the simpler dishes as well, and Brazilians would pay for them. Some idiot foreigner probably said I would gladly pay R$10 for this! It’s amazing!

Since the embargo Russia is an importer of Brazilian products and not a competitor. Products such as fruits and vegetables and meat products so I don’t see the competition aspect.

As far as your analysis regarding inflation because people eat out more, I believe it is much more complicated then that and has absolutely very little to do with the inflationary spiral that we have at the moment.

I do a lot of business in the interior of Brazil and I can unequivocally tell you that these people with salario minimo ++ are in a big hurt at the moment, everybody is complaining.

Inflation has/is been running at 15-20% for the last 3 years…at least.

Sorry, I didn’t meant to say Russia was in competition with Brazil to sell, it’s in competition with BrazilIANS to buy their own products. So meant is going up in price, because the Russians are willing to pay more than the Brazilians are.

I know cost of living has been going up and inflation is a huge issue, but I think there are other aspects here that might be at play as well. 20% over 3 years doesn’t even double the cost of your R$3 plate.

I don’t pay much attention to the big ticket items, but Cars, Houses, Appliances, have all been pretty stagnant in pricing I would assume. I know housing has been coming down a bit where we are, and I’ve heard its pretty much all over Brazil at this point. I haven’t seen car prices taking off like crazy. Appliances don’t seem out rageous in prices right now, so I would assume they weren’t hit massive inflation either. So big ticket items aren’t really being affected here as far as I can tell. Housing definitely lead the way years ago, but for the last 2-3 years housing has been weakening.

Food for sure, but food everywhere in the world has been going up, that isn’t a Brazilian thing. I haven’t been here long enough to track actual household goods, and I don’t buy any either (brought way too much stuff with me) I assume those are being hit by inflation as well, but by what amount I don’t know.

i haven’t seen food prices rise as fast as here, though my only references are the usa and china (two divergent examples, for sure). a year ago, a box of loose mate was R $4,99. at pão de aÃ¬ßucar, it’s now 9,50! that’s a fundamental foodstuff. interestingly, a litre of pasteurized leite integral, hard to find but regularly stocked by zona sul, was 5,85 a year ago and has only gone up to 6,88.

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