USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1.0057 initially last week, subsequent sharp fall and break of 0.9836 indicates that USD/CAD recent down trend has resumed. Further fall will now remain in favor as long as 0.9927 resistance holds. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779 first and possibly further to 0.9709 support. On the upside, though, above 0.9927 will flip bias back to the upside for 1.0057 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 1.0363 (2009 high) is still in progress and such down trend should continue to 0.9709 support first and possibly further towards 2007 low of 0.9056. Nevertheless, fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. Though, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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