Toasty temps top January 1990 benchmark.

February 01, 2006|ADAM JACKSON Tribune Staff Writer

Gentle month a record-setter Tuesday was a damp and cool day, with a scattering of snowflakes, gray skies and chilly breezes reminiscent of a storybook Thanksgiving. The thing is, it's January. But this year, what is traditionally Michiana's coldest month has seen a lot more red on the thermometer than usual -- enough, actually, to make it one for the record books. With an average temperature of more than 35 degrees, by the time this story hits the newsstand, January 2006 will have taken its place in history as the warmest January in South Bend since the National Weather Service started writing them down in 1939. "It breaks the old record pretty easily," National Weather Service meteorologist Sam Lashley said. "We've averaged more than 12 degrees above the historical normals for this month." And that's enough to put a torch to the old record average of 34 degrees, set back in 1990. Furthermore, the South Bend area has received only 3.4 inches of snow in January. And while that's a long way from being the least-snowy January on record, it is still nearly 20 inches below the normal for this time of year. What's going on? For weeks now, the general weather pattern has been stagnant, with a rip-roaring upper-level wind pattern, or jet stream, keeping cold Arctic air bottled way up north. We've had plenty of moisture -- January clocked in at .67 of an inch above normal in terms of liquid precipitation equivalent, but the pattern has effectively pre-empted any wild and woolly snow makers from dumping on Michiana's doorstep. So, does this mean the specter of global warming is upon us? Well, nobody seems too worried yet. Even farmers, who watch the weather like their livelihood depends on it (because it does), aren't too concerned about the recent mild weather. "In terms of general agriculture, I don't think it is having too much effect," Phil Sutton, the extension educator for Agriculture and Natural Resources at the Purdue University Extension office in St. Joseph County, said. "It will definitely bring things on earlier if it stays this way, though." Sutton said the two main winter crops -- wheat and alfalfa -- are both hardy enough to sustain fluctuations in temperature. The only trouble that might occur is if we get extreme warmth in the 60s and 70s in February or March. That kind of weather might cause fruit trees to bud early. And if there is a cold snap after the buds begin to swell, fruit growers could see significant crop damage. But almost nobody is complaining about the lack of snow to be shoveled and the lack of cold-weather maintenance brought on by the mild temps at local farms. "This is a lot easier than trying to keep pipes from freezing," Sutton said with a laugh. Of course, a January sans shoveling might help persuade some that Michiana isn't so bad a place to be during the winter months. Doug Risser, one of the co-owners of Menno Travel Service in Goshen, said his office has seen a small decline in people booking trips to warmer climes this month. But there's still plenty of business. After all, it's not like temperatures in the 40s and 50s are real competition to the balmy lure of places like Puerto Vallarta or Cabo San Lucas. "There is a lot more than snow that people consider when they decide whether or not to book a vacation," Risser said. "One of those things is the amount of sunlight we have been seeing. "And that's not much," he said with a laugh. What's more, there are no guarantees that Michiana's weather won't bare its frigid fangs in the weeks to come. Already, Lashley said, there are indications that the current weather pattern could break up in the first couple of weeks of February, and there's even a hint that a developing winter storm could dump a sizable snow on the area as early as this weekend. As an ice fisherman and a golfer, he's happy either way. "There are meteorologists who really look forward to the wintry weather, and others who like it better when it is warm," Lashley said. "As for me, I've been able to get out golfing four times this month."Staff writer Adam Jackson ajackson@sbtinfo.com (574) 936-1029