This windy cold weather shocks our systems, particularly following a hot summer and a warm autumn. The high temperature at Reagan National Airport was only 39 degrees yesterday - 11 degrees below normal. And when we add in this blustery wind, the discomfort is magnified. Unfortunately, today sees no improvement over yesterday. And tomorrow is only slightly nicer thanks to a little less wind. Warmer, but not warm, and less windy weather returns late in the week and into the weekend along with precipitation chances.

Today (Tuesday): Canada is the culprit for our misery. A massive low pressure in eastern Canada and big high pressure in central Canada join forces to feed bitter chill into our region. Winds from the west stay up at 15-25 mph, with gusts to near 35 mph and cold highs around 35-40. Look for partly sunny skies along with the chance of a flurry. Yet again, wind chills can't climb out of the 20s. Confidence: High

Tonight: Partly to mostly clear skies and slightly lighter winds (10-15 mph) allow temperatures to drop a few degrees lower than we've seen in recent nights. Lows near 20 in the suburbs to the low-to-mid 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Cold continues, but the winds wane just a enough (10-15 mph with gusts to near 25 mph) for a slightly less irritating wind chill even though highs are still chilly - in the mid-to-upper 30s. The other sort of good news is that skies should be at least partly sunny for a good part of the day. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Less wind and the potential for partly to mostly clear skies make for a pretty chilly night. Lows sink to the upper teens to near 20 across the suburbs, but the heat island of D.C. could hold in the low-to-mid 20s instead. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday is on track to be mostly sunny, but still cold. At least winds will finally be light. Highs only reach the upper 30s, followed by Thursday night lows in the 20s under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

The weekend is a weather house divided. Saturday shapes up as partly to mostly sunny with highs struggling closer to normal, probably in the mid-to-upper 40s. Sunday sees the potential for rain (60% chance as of now, maybe starting Saturday night) and highs could make a run at 50, assuming we stay on the warm side of a developing Midwest winter storm powerhouse, which is looking more and more likely than a colder and more wintry scenario. A powerful cold front should sweep the area late Sunday, possibly changing our rain to snow briefly before ending. Confidence: Low-Medium

I hate to tell you this, but early next week looks windier and colder than how this week has started, as our Sunday storm explodes over New England.

weather.com says 60% for snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. So, who knows?

Posted by: cubscapsfan | December 7, 2010 6:47 AM
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60% chance! OMG! let's all get to the grocery store...

this is exactly why i appreciate CWG. they could be playing up next week's snow possibilities, but their professional and personal integrity won't let them. they could have the SPI higher (presumably, it now includes next tuesday), but don't.

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matt,
is theis "blocking pattern" the NAO? or something else entirely. i just read some sad, i thought, news on wes' thread about how the NOA isn't really as negative or well-placed as we might think it is. i may be in over my head here...?

But I will make this observation that suggests the local TV meteorologists are also maintaining their integrity.

First of all, this is a small sample size, I admit that. But over the past several days, while CWG was making posts about the possibility of snow for Sunday, the times I listened to Doug and Doug, they did not mention snow, or lead with things like - Will it snow this weekend?

Now just to clarify, this is not a criticism of CWG, because they always said the chances for snow were very low. CWG is still the best!

I understand that the windy cold weather has everyone down. You have to find the silver lining though - this weather is SUPERB for sipping a hot mug of tea with honey, at home or in front of your computer at work! I find I can't drink coffee in the winter b/c tea is by far the superior cold-weather pick-me-up.

Yeah, Walter, all it really takes are slight wobbles in that ridge, which are difficult to forecast far in advance as I'm sure Mr. Tracton will be quick to tell you. This weekend's storm could track as far west as Pittsburgh or even directly over us...a slight shift right/east was all that was needed to significantly change the story around here.

There are two problems with the pattern right now. One is in the Pacific. The evolving position of the vortex over the Gulf of Alaska with low heights pushing into the Pacific Northwest on the longer ranges makes it hard to get a southern stream system going so most of surface lows are coming across the country far enough north that it is hard to hold the cold air over our region. Also, we don't really have a nice vortex in the Atlantic in the proper position. Note in the the 500h forecasts for the Dec and Feb storms last year. Note the difference in the re areas over the Atlantic, the blocking is farther east and the vortex near nova scotia is weaker this year

Blocking often tries to build back west and that is what the models are trying to do on the longer ranges. However, they have been too aggressive bringing the blocking high westward this winter and during westerly QBO years, the tendency is for a more eastward based negative NAO. Combine that with the LA Nina tendency towards a negative PNA pattern and getting a big snowstorm becomes tougher, not impossible, but tougher than a year like last year.

The 06Z GFS has shown a small SHIFT eastward, indicating a bit of a better chance of mixed precip as the storm cranks and heads toward New England SUN PM... Let's see what the 12Z shows...it's all about trends!

The real insult with this multi-day cold windy spell is that we get ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in return, except for "milder" temperatures and a shot of MUCH UNNEEDED boring-forties, bone-chilling RAIN. Frankly, I find the one-day cold shots far more tolerable. The only silver lining is that my dances tonight and Friday night appear to be free of inclement weather.

Not sure if this killed the last crickets; generally you need a full day below freezing, preferably with at least some snow cover. That kills all except the juvenile crickets which hibernate until spring and the worthless humpback crickets that don't chirp because they have no wings.

With plans to travel to New England this weekend, I guess my question is whether this storm's "explosion" means generally either a rain/snow/ or mixed event for New England? And by what order of magnitude?

Snow would be MUCH more welcome than rain on Sunday--I'm running as a volunteer in a 5k race with several hundred children. Those poor kids are going to freeze if it's a cold rain....at least snow doesn't soak you.