April 9, 2007

DEPTH? :

Alex Rodriguez can't do it alone. For some, this will be a stunning statement, given that it implies he was doing "it" at all — it being the dirty business of winning ballgames. Now, Rodriguez hasn't always deigned to immerse himself in that business, particularly last year, and even in the first few games of the 2007 season when he was stranding runners with his usual style. It was only on Saturday that the old MVP form reasserted itself, with two home runs, including a walk-off grand slam.

What's less certain is how long the MVP form will stay, and even if it does, if the Yankees have given themselves the offensive and pitching depth to sustain a long run of winning. On paper, the Yankees are solid and should score liberally while maintaining decent if unspectacular pitching. Already, though, this whole equation has been thrown into question by injuries to Chien-Ming Wang, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon, as well as poor performances by all of the starting pitchers in the first games of the season.

While it's too early to be truly concerned with the Yankees' 2–3 record, the sight of Miguel Cairo starting in left field should be of great concern. For all of Brian Cashman's manifold strengths as general manager, when it comes to the major league bench he has always had a cavalier attitude bordering on neglect.

The bench is obviously a liability for a team this old, but the fact their only major league quality starting pitcher is at AAA and the only reliever is an arm-weary closer has to a bigger worry.
Posted by Orrin Judd at April 9, 2007 1:25 PM

Comments

If you keep pretending that Wang and Mussina, who are better than any starting pitchers the Sawx have with major league experience (see stats, last season), aren't "major league quality", do you think that will make it come true?

Silva throws a 96 mph sinker? More like Wang is Tommy John with a better sinker. He'll be the Yanks # 2 for a decade, anchoring the staff behind Hughes.

While I wanted Hughes in the rotation asap, the Yanks even now have more than enough pitching to win the East. Bottom line is the Yanks have at least 2 if not 3 quality arms at the top of the rotation, the Sawx only 1 and he's an untested MLB rookie. Not to mention their anemic offense.

It's the Jays arms that worry me. Looks like another 3rd place year for your lot.

Silva doesn't anymore, which is the point. It's the Gary Gentry gamble. You can let a pitcher who'd possibly be marginal otherwise throw improperly because he gets guys out that way, or you fix his mechanics and pitch selection and risk him not getting guys out. With the former you at least get a couple years from him. In the case of a David Cone you even luck into many, though Sid Fernandez and Gentry himself are closer to the norm.

Mussina illustrates another principle: luck. Number studies have revealed to us the surprising role that sheer dumb lkuck plays in much of baseball. So a mediocre hitter may have a few more hits than normal fall in and seem to have improved his hitting. Or a pitcher may follow several years of 4.50+ ERAs with a year where the ball finds guys gloves more often--due to nothing he's done--and appear to have had a good year. But, it being baseball, guys revert to the norm over time.

So they're obviously not betting you on who would actually win the East, which would seem like the bottom line, at least as far as the regular season is concerned. The way you talk about this year after year, you'd think the Red Sox would have won the division going back into perpetuity. I'd like to goad Jim into making this bet with you because I think you'd take it. Would I be right?

A World Series, certainly. But the last year they didn't win the AL East was 1997. If history is any indication, your usual pattern of talking down the Yankees as opposed to the Red Sox and Blue Jays ought to end in the Yankees once again owning the division at the end of the year. What happens after that could be the subject of a different bet.

Jim would've been wise to make this bet with you over the past few seasons.