Ron Paul gets a shot at first primary campaign victory in Washington state

SPOKANE, Wash. — He has the organization. He has the fired-up base. There are just two questions about Ron Paul’s performance in Washington state’s Republican caucuses.

Can he win? And will it matter?

The congressman from Texas may have a shot at declaring his first victory of the Republican primary season on Saturday when Washington Republicans gather for caucuses at libraries, community centers, Grange halls and restaurants statewide. He came in a strong third in the state’s caucuses in 2008, and has energized new followers in the four years since.

But Paul still faces stiff competition from Mitt Romney, who has built a strong organization in the state, and Rick Santorum, who has excited social conservatives. And a win by any of them could be fleeting, since the delegates chosen Saturday are not bound to support a particular candidate.

Still, there was a sense of optimism Friday when Paul spoke to an adoring throng of more than a thousand people at the Spokane Convention Center, his second appearance in eastern Washington in two weeks. “We keep coming back to Washington because we expect to do real well here,” he said, in his typically laconic way.

Santorum had campaigned in Spokane the day before, exciting a crowd of several hundred at a Pentecostal church. The two candidates drew strikingly different audiences, perhaps summed up, at the risk of stereotyping, by the much higher percentage of facial hair, hiking boots, male earrings and tattoos at Paul’s rally.

Santorum’s biggest applause line may have been when he talked about how he, like Ronald Reagan, speaks out about the existence of evil in the world.

Paul’s came when a member of the audience stood up during a question-and-answer session to say: “I’m just wondering if you think there’s ever a time when it’s appropriate to put your party ahead of principles.”

“Never,” Paul said. The audience leapt to its feet, cheering.

Both groups shared a detestation of President Barack Obama and the view that their candidate was the best man to solve the nation’s problems. Santorum supporters were much more likely to say they would support the GOP candidate even if their favorite loses. In a sampling of Paul supporters, most said they would sit out the election or write in Paul’s name if he is not the nominee in November.

“I am tired of voting against the Democratic incumbent,” said Kris Carey, a 65-year-old microbiologist who came from nearby Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, to hear Paul speak. “I want to vote my conscience.” (Idaho holds its caucuses on Tuesday.)

Michael Quesnell, a 59-year-old retired contractor from Liberty Lake, Wash., said he would vote for Obama over any of the other Republican candidates, whom he dismissed as “flip-floppers.”

All of that matters Saturday only to the degree that the campaigns can turn out voters for the caucuses. It is a daunting task. Washington has had a dual system of primaries and caucuses since 1992, but dropped the GOP primary this year as a cost-saving measure. Some voters seem confused by the change, and uncertain or unmotivated to vote in a caucus.

“The caucuses are a perfect place for true believers to make their mark, because you really have to care to get up on a Saturday morning and go talk politics with a bunch of strangers,” said former state GOP Chairman Dale Foreman, who is the eastern Washington chair of Romney’s campaign. He said he expects Romney to win the caucuses, but not by much.

In a primary election, he said, “Mitt would win overwhelmingly — there’s no question about that.”

Nonpartisan pollster Stuart Elway made a similar point. “You would expect this to be a Romney state,” Elway said. “The only Republicans who get elected here are moderates.” But, he said, caucuses attract the most activist voters, which can mean the most committed conservatives. Given that, he said, “There’s a lot more potential for a Santorum or even a Paul” victory.

At stake are Washington’s 43 delegates to the Republican National Convention. But those won’t be chosen on Saturday, when the state GOP will hold a non-binding straw poll on presidential preference and then, separately, select non-binding delegates to the state Republican convention. It will be there, in early June, that the party will select its national party delegates.

A recent statewide poll of potential Republican voters showed Santorum with a healthy lead in the state. But Elway, whose own firm has not polled on the presidential race, said it had no bearing on the caucuses.

“I don’t think it means anything,” he said. “At best, 100,000 people may participate in these and there are 3 million voters here. ... It’s dedicated party activists or the campaign activists who attend these things, so it’s just not reflective of anything beyond that.”