Friday, January 16, 2009

My final Oscar predictions (unless I get cold feet on Monday night). Nothing has happened this past week to suggest that there will be many surprises so this was easier to settle on than I was thinking. Just a few adjustments to reflect the dominion of Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button... and Ms. Kate Winslet.

119 comments:

It's painful to look into WALL.E's eyes and realise that this little wonder will be denied the status it deserves so much in favour of films that big awards organizations convinced themselves to love.Let someone give us hope that it's not over.

I'm really hoping that the Oscar voters pull some crazy nominations of the hat, like the 2003 best actress race, something City of God like, maybe a unexpected nomination Almodovar style. I know that's probably not going to happen, but hey, I can dream/hope.

i agree with most. thought on actor categories.penn, rourke, langella, and then...jenkins- not my favorite performance, but likely to be high on people's lists and the breakthrough performance of the year in this category.leo- i am putting him in because it was a personal best and though the movie may get snubbed i think the leads were arguably the best thing about it and will get their due recognition. likely to be higher on peoples lists than some of the subtler performances in the running.pitt- tempted to put him on, but seems the most likely to end up on the snubs list. subtle performance was good, and subtle display of emotions, though not a showy range. may end up in the middle or bottom of best of lists.eastwood- not necessary recognition in a crowded year (insert eastwood underestimated @ oscars comment here)

i am putting eddie marsan on my fifth spot. one of the years strongest performances and the best part of his film. it is entirely possible the film gets entirely ignored at oscars, but if hawkins can pull off a nom he might be able to too.

Although the film Doubt buzz has cooled a bit, it seems that Streep's buzz has intensified (her BFCA win, Iowa win, North Texas win, BAFTA nomination, etc.). I still see her as the frontrunner for Best Actress.

ya, just as bryan said, ew.com and goldderby have been talking... also read something on incontention i think. i don't know, i'd like to see some fun semi-random nominations... but if that means seeing gran torino pick up undeserved noms, i'll take the predictable.

Oh, don't believe the nomination of the 4th Indiana for Best Original Score, it is not going to happen.This branch loves to nominate the same men over and over, as you have pointed out brilliantly, but would they go this far?It would be embarassing.

I have a feeling that there will be a surprise in every acting category this year. While there are certainly locks in each category, none of them are completely sewn up and there are a ton of actors with outside shots. It's funny to have such uncertainty in acting while the Best Picture/Director lineup seems so set.

I'm totally biased, but I would really love to see WALL•E pull a nomination, which I think it will. #1 placements are everything here, and I can't help but think it will get a slew of them. Or if everyone's going Slumdog for #1, then I see WALL•E getting a lot of #2s instead. But I'm totally biased and would love love LOVE to see it happen.

I am beginning to think that Kristin Scott Thomas might take Hawkins spot.

I mean Hawkins got snubbed by the BAFTA and that has to smart. Usually the Mike Leigh women have always won the BAFTA there. But for some reason I can see Kristin Scott Thomas getting in next week and Hawkins maybe not.

Benicio del Toro!! I am keeping him in my Best Actor category mostly just to be contrary, but I think that would be the best possible surprise come Oscar morning. I am finding this year more interesting for the possible surprises than for the likely nominees. Because of that, I am predicting things like Darren Aronofsky as the Lone Director, and Kristen Scott Thomas in Best Actress. Gotta keep it interesting.

Gosh, I hope in some way Leonardo DiCaprio can make it in. His acting in Revolutionary Road was beyond brilliant and incredibly mature. Meanwhile, we have Brad Pitt's lackluster, let-me-let-every-other-actor-carry-the-load performance being nominated by everyone. Ugh.

I like your predictions, but here's my qualms:-No Amy Adams.-Winslet should be placed higher in both categories, though ranking isn't really that big of a deal as long as you have her in the top 5.

You know, Adams may have a relatively easy role, but she does wonderful things with it. I get the feeling that she's not as innocent as she tries to be, certainly not as much as she wants to be. I love the way she balances the nun's loyalty to the Church's laws and her loyalty to what is right. At the risk of catching hell for this, I really feel Adams has a much harder job than Davis, in that she has to add depth to an otherwise shallow character. And she does. Small wonder that she's been doing so well in precursors.

I really want to be daring and predict Kate Winslet for Best Actress in The Reader as a big surprise. But, then, if it's wrong I lose out on improving my prediction average due to TWO categories. Hmmm. What to do. I do feel like predicting Melissa Leo, too.

I'm hoping Dev Patel is like Emile Hirsch last year. Buzz despite doing nothing and then a welcome omission come Oscar morning (shame the same can't be said about the film).

Here are the following surprises that I would find welcome (despite not having seen some of the movies b/c of availability):

Benicio Del Toro, Best Actor for CheMichelle Williams, Best Actress for Wendy and LucyColin Farrel, Best Actor for In BrugesMartin McDonagh for In Bruges or Tom McCarthy for The Visitor, best original screenplayMike Leigh, Best Director for Happy-go-Lucky

And surprises that I think are likely, but I would not enjoy:Richard Jenkins left out in favor of Clint Eastwood for Best ActorMilk left out for Best Picture (but I think it still gets a best director nod)Sally Hawkins left out for Happy-go-Lucky

Also - Nate, are you just teasing us with the 3 performances you have currently posted for Best Actor? Are you going to leave the rest blank - I could understand, b/c while there are other good performances that would rank with the best in other years, I don't think any came to the heights that Ledger, Penn, & Rourke did this year.

Clint should be in the top five over Richard Jenkins. Mickey Rourke's the one to beat now, not Sean Penn. Kate Winslet should be much higher than fifth (should be swapped with Angelina Jolie). Meryl isn't number one anymore either. "Slumdog Millionaire" has deserved all the praise it's received and then some. Dev Patel is much higher than fifth. He should be at least third, maybe second to Heath at this point. Amy Adams should be in the top five, probably over Marisa Tomei. Henson should be in considering she has the visibility of a best picture nominee. These predictions have missed the boat left and right this year. Disappointing, Nate.

ranking has nothing to do with winning. it has to do with being nominated. I firmly believe meryl streep is in the #1 place for most likely to be nominated :) everyone else has tiny problem areas... that probably won't keep them out of the race but you never know (if there's a big shock)

Can you really see Cate as a surprise nominee, I know they love her, but that would still be a massive shock! Patel is riding the Slumdog wave and peaked just at the right time, so he will be in for S.A.

Even though everyone is predicting it, for some reason I just can't see Frost/Nixon getting a Best Picture nomination. I think it will get nominations for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay and that's it.

Same with Angelina Jolie. I'm just not feeling it. I see Cate Blanchett taking the fifth slot (with Streep, Winslet, Hathaway and Hawkins being the other four).

I'll most likely be proven wrong on at least one, if not all, of those.

I really want to be daring and predict Kate Winslet for Best Actress in The Reader as a big surprise. But, then, if it's wrong I lose out on improving my prediction average due to TWO categories. Hmmm. What to do. I do feel like predicting Melissa Leo, too.

I feel like doing both things too, but I don't think that they'll snub Angelina Jolie twice in a row, and Hawkins is probably in because she's the critics darling, so who to drop for Leo?

As for Winslet, she's most likely winning if she's nominated in both categories because it would be hard not to award her, but I still think it's better for her to be nominated for one category, or at least wait until after SAG to see where her momentum is shifting to because I still don't think that anyone will ever win both acting awards in one night not even her. Right now I still feel like it hurts her to some degree to actually win in both categories because then voters avoid that possible situation by not awarding her in either category, but maybe the SAG will finally clear things up again unless she wins both awards there too which is possible.

I was just watching Dev Patel on Letterman, and he introduced himself by saying: "I play the LEAD in Slumdog Millionaire". Let's hope his votes shifted enough so he gets the shaft... This is shaping up to be a mediocre year for oscar nods.

Wall-E was ineligible for WGA which explains its snub. Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, and Rataouille all missed out on WGA nods and were still on the Oscar shortlists... Since Wall-E has achieved more success than any of these films, I think it'll land that O. Screenplay nod.

The funniest thing in the Globes for me was Kate forgetting Angelina as her fellow nom, but I wonder if there's an ironic truth to it. There are so many strong candidates to win that the putative HUGE STAR is forgotten. I wonder whether some voters will have the same blind spot. Here's hoping. Would love to see KST and Hawkins in the final two spots.

i think the 4th and 5th spots are shakey in each categorey there alssorts of winslet scenarios that could alter actress and supp actress we all know what they are if she gets a reader lead nom then that opens up supp actress and what would piss me off would be marisa overlooked for hattie mcdaniel oops i meant taraji p henson.

i too think kst is more of a threat this years tommy lee jones or maybe dicaprio or shannon.

Ryan has said it.WALL E was not eligible for WGA. how could you miss that?!The WALL E nomination for Or. Screenplay is almost a lock. If the rat made it through (and he was a quiet little bastard too), why wouldn't wall e?! 2001: A Space Odyssey had a "silent" beginning with the bones thing, but it got in... :P

Very well said Alex. No dialogue doesnt mean no good screenplay, i think that it is the contrary.

I forgot to take an opinion on Kate Winslet's double chances.I have to say i love Winslet, she is beautiful, talented, funny and many other positive adjectives. But i have to say it's unfair she is able tobe in both supporting and leading when her too characters are clearly leading. Is not nice to think that despite her great performance in The Reader, she might take someone else's spot on the supporting race.

I think that AMPAS should have done what they did with DiCaprio in 2006, just chose one of two performances. If she doesnt win it would be sad but fair.

After much consideration...I think Winslet is just as much a supporting role as Rosemary Dewitt. I've seen the film twice, and honestly...it's all a matter of how you look at it. I still maintain that Michael is the main Character. I remain sad that David Kross has not had more buzz. Also, I dreamt about Stephen Daldry last night. Interesting.

Also, finally got to Frost/Nixon and was surprised that I liked it. Sheen is great, but it is not a supporting role. Langella was fab, and I forgot I was watching him. I think his chances will improve once he's nominated and people actually watch the movie.

I feel much better about Frost/Nixon getting a nom as well. It's a good flick, reminiscent of The Queen, and I think it will get in.

The valid argument that's been said for months now. The three Jamals have roughly equal screentime and there is no specific lead actor in the film. Ayush Mahesh Khedekar, Tanay Chheda, and Dev Patel are all in the same boat -- supporting actors in an ensemble with no lead. I'm fine with Dev Patel's supporting actor placement and will continue to be fine with it once he's Oscar-nominated.

If it were up to me, Best Actress nominees would definitely include Streep, Hathaway, Leo and Scott Thomas. It would definitely not include Jolie (her acting ran the gamut of emotions from A to B) nor Hawkins (character was just too annoying). Fifth slot would likely go to either Blanchett or Winslet, but I hesitate because I haven't yet seen "Revolutionary Road," which just opened last Friday here in Montreal.

If enough AMPAS voters have seen "Frozen River" (and the screeners went out VERY early), maybe Leo could be this year's equivalent of Ryan Gosling's nomination for "Half Nelson."

I think even more fascinating than the lead actors slumming in the supporting categories are the supporting performances that get pushed up to lead. For example, I remember when everyone was shocked about Meryl Streep going lead for The Devil Wears Prada, and I remember during the At the Movies segment for The Last King of Scotland, Kevin Smith said he was excited to see Forest Whitaker win the Oscar for best supporting performance. I guess if the performance feels powerful enough, it overrides screen time.

Nat, you keep saying that there's never been a time that Williams was eligible for a Score in your lifetime where he was passed over. That's not entirely true. Just looking at the last 30 years, you have:

Granted, I'm with you that it's not very many, but it is two years, and I think Indy 4 could be grouped in there. Now, I think Williams certainly could score a nomination on Thursday, but it wouldn't be unprecedented if he was passed over.

I would say that Winslet is in for Revolutionary Road, her name helps a lot. But I can see The Reader getting her the nod there too. But then how often have the Academy ignored what the studios and the trade ads are saying, Keisha Castle Hughes aside.

I honestly think slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight will both be nominated for Costume Design. I would nominate Milk, too, but that won't probably happen. Changeling and Australia are the ones I think will be snubbed.

I'm not trusting Rachel Getting Married to get a screenplay nod. In Bruges, Burn After Reading and Wall-E; from those 3, I believe at least one will get in, and I'm starting to think Burn After Reading is the one.As for adapted, I think The Dark Knight will get in, leaving out The Reader.

I would replace anything in cinematography for Milk, simply because I loved it and it's my favorite of the year. I did enjoy Revolutionary Road, however. I'd take out The Dark Knight, easily, but I believe TDK will indeed get the nomination.

I'm also adding Tropic Thunder for Make-Up. Robert Downey Jr nomination and Tropic Thunder nomination will walk hand by hand.

I'm all for Wall-E, Milk, Burn After Reading, Tropic Thunder and Iron Man.

The biggest case of category fraud was Jamie Foxx in Collateral campaigned as Supporting. When you are literally in every single scene of the movie you are a lead. And then there was those two aborted supporting campaigns for Naomi Watts (for Mulholland Drive) and Scarlett Johansson (for Lost in Translation - what was she supporting? Tokyo?).

They aren't flop averse (Affair of the Necklace, Across the Universe). They like showiness and period. They don't mind subtlety (in period) for the nod. They are probably the least clique-y group and often respond to smaller films than most below the line categories (nominations for Orlando, Velvet Goldmine, Angels and Insects).

So The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Australia, The Duchess and Revolutionary Road are for sure. I'll go with Brideshead Revisited for the final slot. Slumdog, as exciting as it is, isn't going to be their cup of tea (if it is, I'd be surprised)

I am always late to the table.Mr R,Question: Why didn't you say that in fact Angelina Jolie carries the whole film on her shoulders? Why did you say downright mean things instead? You INFLUENCE your readers that way, not fair.What? Winslet is not interesting enough, not pretty enough -more like a British suburban housewife.She is nowhere near Angelina's performance, as Christine Collins. No one is but [possibly] Kristin Scott Thomas. The two of them SHOULD be in.All the other roles, Jolie can do in her sleep, blind-folded and hog-tied.The truth:It's a SHAME that Winslet won 2 GGs and is double-nominated for BAFTA - b/c she is a Brit! No wonder she was shocked!I hope Jolie wins, as I TRULY believe she deserves it.

Nate: What is your lineup of actresses probabilities to win ?-- Apparently, you are now backtracking and saying your lineup is nomination probability only. In the past, your lineupS have always been probability of winning. It looks to me like the lineups are very close to both nomination and win probability as they now stand with the exception of Supporting Actress (Winslet factor).

The Best Original Song ctegory puzzles me. I love Regina Spektor, but I agree that her song/the film it is from do not have the momentum to carry her. But none of the songs aside from Jai Ho, The Wrestler, and Down to Earth seem like they can be nominated.

I am also very distressed by the fact that Miley Cyrus will have an Oscar nomination to her name. Where have the days of Shaft and Beauty and the Beast gone?

I have mixed feelings about the Hutton win. I love the performance, but how is Mary Tyler Moore a lead and Hutton is not? Makes no sense whatsoever, but Hutton was not gonna dethrone DeNiro that year. So I'm happy he was rewarded... but he probably robbed Joe Pesci of an Oscar.

anon 11:24 i'm not backtracking. that's the way i've done it for years and years ... the ranking is based on nominating probability -- although usually that coincides with winning probability but not always. For example: if clint eastwood, who i have in 6th, manages the nomination... i'd put him at #1 (sigh)

i may have made errors or forgotten the point of it here or there :) but that's always been my strategy for ranking.

fenix mistake. I will fix.

anon 9:37 i stand by everything i said re: jolie as far as boosters/weaknesses go... but I'm glad you liked the performance. I just didn't respond to it at all. It's the first time honestly that I've ever been bored by Jolie. I usually find her fascinating or at least entertaining to watch even if the movie is bad.

all i'm curious as to why people are so doubtful about Jolie's nomination. The reasoning i'm hearing behind why AMY ADAMS is a lock all apply to Jolie too (never missed a precursor etcetera) and yet people think Jolie will be snubbed.

Mr R,Thanks for answering.So you stand by everything you said re: Angelina? Even if there was no "carries entire film" notion? B/c she DOES, and does it simply beautifully.No mention of PRECURSOR LOVE? It IS there, more than for others.YES,Clint Eastwood was totally right (and he knows what he is talking about) when he said that her celebrity and her beauty - even much more beautiful in person, I saw her in London - STILL detracts some people from seeing her as an excellent actress that she has PROVEN to be (truckload of awards, and nominations too, at the tender age of 33 - how about that!)You push this celebrity blah-blah-BLAH that can easily apply to ANY of them. But, NO one of them does someting USEFUL as Angelina has been doing for over 8 years (since she was 25, and doing good was not "in fashion" yet).Look for Jolie's detractors among people like that and certainly NOT "all" of us.

anon 5:37 ... i don't think GRAN TORINO is a bad movie. But i definitely don't think it's a good one either. I gave it a C... which means completely average.

Clint was good (though hardly should be coming near a "best" acting prize) but i thought the story was hokey, the racism was too gleefully portrayed --we get it Clint -- and the supporting cast was awful... I don't really like the use of non-actors unless whoever is directing them is willing to work hard to pull great performances out of them (I also have this problem with some of Gus Van Sant's work and many art films... I MUCH prefer real actors to non-actors)

Plus the movie, to me, looks shot for TV and I never dig that in the cinema.

and the only reason i'm sharing all of that is because i get tired of people assuming that i have automatic responses rather than thought out positions. I don't automatically dislike movies... though, like anyone else I am more prone to like movies by artists I adore than artists who I don't often respond to.

I just saw your answer to me, Mr R.Thanks.I really don't want to go on and on about this.Your Oscar predictions took me by surprise and I thought that you overlooked Angelina Jolie's talent, the fact that she carries the entire film and has precursors vote as well - and emphasized the celebrity nonsense, that can be applied to any of them anyways.B/c of SUCH nonsense, Angelina's (and NO one else's!) terrific talent should be ignored by the Oscar voters and even by people reading predictions ?! I think NOT (and I am sure I am not alone).I honestly wonder how much longer will it take for detractors to see Jolie - and EVERYONE else for that matter - for what they are and not for whatt the trashy, greedy and corrupted tabloids say!Will it take another Oscar snub for Angelina?! Hopefully not.That's really all I wanted to say.

I love the "Best Song" performances on Oscar night as much as hearing who wins in each category...that being said, I have to believe that Clint Eastwood's song for "Gran Torino" will be nominated. To hear Jamie Cullum sing it would be astounding...

I just saw you're predicting 14 nods for Button. That would tie it for the most ever, with Titanic and All About Eve. Considering it's not even the frontrunner to win it's unlikely to me this will happen