Donald Trump's power dynamic with Nancy Pelosi will be on full display at the State of the Union

WASHINGTON – When President Donald Trump climbs the rostrum to deliver his second State of the Union address, he'll share the stage with the Democrat who has become his most vexing political rival: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

White House aides say Trump intends to deliver a speech focused on bipartisanship. But sitting just over his left shoulder in the House chamber, the California Democrat will be a stark reminder of the precarious state of his proposed border wall, the negotiations to avoid another government shutdown and his legislative agenda for the next two years.

Associates of Pelosi and Trump said the president appears to have initially misread the speaker and underestimated her willingness to stand firm against his demands for money to pay for a border wall. Trump ultimately agreed to temporarily end a 35-day government shutdown last month even though the short-term funding bill included no money for his border wall.

Earlier, the two clashed about the timing of Trump's address. After Pelosi suggested the president wait to deliver the State of the Union until after the government reopened, Trump first threatened to deliver the speech in another venue before he relented and agreed to hold off until Tuesday.

“I think she’s trying to prove that controlling the House allows her to dominate the outcome,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump ally, told USA TODAY. “And he’s trying to prove that being president allows him to define the outcome. And they have very, very dramatic different goals in mind.”

Trump had demanded $5.7 billion to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to end the government shutdown that had dragged on for more than a month, leaving some 800,000 federal employees without a paycheck. Democrats refused to allocate the money, and Pelosi called a wall “immoral.”

"This is the first couple of rounds of a long heavyweight battle. I think they’re both trying to see what punches land and how their opposite member reacts," said Mark Harkins, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Democrat Steny Hoyer listen to Democratic Representative from Connecticut Rosa DeLauro speak at a podium during an event with Democratic members of Congress and national organization members to reintroduce the Paycheck Fairness Act, on Capitol Hill, Jan. 30, 2019. MICHAEL REYNOLDS, EPA-EFE

Pelosi walks through the U.S. Capitol prior to meeting with President Trump over the budget stalemate in Washington on Jan 2, 2019. The partial government shutdown is in its 10th day. JIM LO SCALZO, EPA-EFE

President Trump meets with Pelosi and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington Dec. 11, 2018. Trump, Pelosi and Schumer had a disagreement on border policy and shutting down the government. MICHAEL REYNOLDS, EPA-EFE

Pelosi and Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer speak to the media as lawmakers prepare to vote on a new budget resolution to avert a government shutdown at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Dec. 20, 2018. JIM LO SCALZO, EPA-EFE

Pelosi listens to Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as they receive updates of Election Day information at the Democratic Party headquarters in Washington on Nov. 4, 2014. Manuel Balce Ceneta, AP

Pelosi speaks to the media while flanked by Reps. Steny Hoyer, Chris Van Hollen, George Miller and Rosa DeLauro after a meeting with President Obama on July 14, 2010, to discuss legislative priorities before the August recess. Mark Wilson, Getty Images

Pelosi celebrates with leading Democrats and supporters at the Hyatt Regency hotel on Capitol Hill on Nov. 7, 2006, after Democrats won the House in the midterm elections. Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Not her 'first rodeo'

Harkins predicted that strategy would favor Pelosi.

"The one with more experience probably knows more about what they’re doing. This is not Speaker Pelosi’s first rodeo," Harkins said.

Neither Pelosi's office nor the White House responded to questions about the relationship, but analysts said the cold shoulder was predictable. Republicans have turned Pelosi into a bogeyman representing the liberal wing of her party for more than a decade.

In that sense, the relationship has been notable for the fact that Trump has been less personally critical of Pelosi. He has not, for instance, tagged her with a nickname as he has other political opponents. Trump calls Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer "Cryin’ Chuck" but acknowledged this week that he likes to call Pelosi, simply, “Nancy.”

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President Donald Trump sparred in the Oval Office with Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer over a border wall and a potential government shutdown. (Dec. 11)
AP

“I think about it in terms of two people who may not have any incentive to work with each other,” said Scott Jennings, a GOP consultant with close ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “It doesn’t portend for a lot of cooperation over the next years.”

Jennings said he believes the White House badly misread Pelosi immediately after the November midterm election, as indicated by Trump's repeated predictions that the then-incoming House speaker would be more likely to make a deal after she assumed power.

The Biblical Hebraica, the oldest Hebrew Bible printed in the United States, was prepared for the swearing in ceremony of the 116th Congress on January 3, 2019 by request of Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Hannah Gaber, USA TODAY

Thomas Jefferson's copy of the Quran was prepared for use in the swearing in ceremony of the 116th Congress by request of incoming Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib. Howver on the day of the ceremony she decided to use her own Quran instead. Hannah Gaber, USA TODAY

Vice President Mike Pence officiates ceremonial swearing-in of Marsha Blackburn in the Old Senate Chambers at the U.S. Capitol as she becomes Tennessee's first female United States Senator. Jack Gruber, USAT

Vice President Mike Pence officiates ceremonial swearing-in of Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ) holding a Bible recovered from Pearl Harbor in the Old Senate Chambers at the U.S. Capitol. Jack Gruber, USAT

Sen.-elect Lance Gooden (R-TX) poses for a photo with Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) during the first session of the 116th Congress at the U.S. Capitol Jan. 03, 2019 in Washington, DC. Under the cloud of a partial federal government shutdown. Pelosi will reclaim her former title as Speaker of the House and her fellow Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives for the second time in eight years. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-NM), left, and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), right, share a laugh as with Rep.-elect Ilhan Omar (D-MN) holds Swalwell's daughter during the first session of the 116th Congress at the U.S. Capitol on Thursday. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Liz Cheney, right, incoming GOP House Conference chairwoman speaks at the start of the 116th Congress and swearing-in ceremony on the floor of the US House of Representatives at the US Capitol. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 3: U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) talks during the first session of the 116th Congress. Under the cloud of a partial federal government shutdown, Rep. Nanci Pelosi will reclaim her former title as Speaker of the House and her fellow Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives for the second time in eight years. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Members of the House of Representatives wait for Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi to accept the gavel from Republican Congressman from Alaska and Dean of the House Don Young (R) to once again become Speaker of the House in the US Capitol. Pelosi and the House of Representatives are expected to vote later today on a bill to re-open the government, which is in its 11th day of a partial shutdown. JIM LO SCALZO/EPA-EFE

Speaker-designate Rep. Nancy Pelosi enters the chamber during the first session of the 116th Congress at the U.S. Capitol January 03, 2019 in Washington, DC. Under the cloud of a partial federal government shutdown, Pelosi will reclaim her former title as Speaker of the House and her fellow Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives for the second time in eight years. Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Rep.-elects Madeleine Dean and Susan Wild along with Rep. Grace Napolitano help put on Susan Wild's congressional pendant during the first session of the 116th Congress at the U.S. Capitol. Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Kinder, gentler speaker?

Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina, a conservative Republican who is close to the president, said that in private, Trump's opinion of Pelosi "has always been one of a worthy adversary."

"I don’t think he’s underestimated her," Meadows said. "I think he was getting advice from people on Capitol Hill, and some of his advisers, that she would be a kinder, gentler speaker as it relates to issues where they disagree. And I think that was misplaced advice."

House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said Trump "may have underestimated her in the weeks leading up to Democrats taking back the majority," but after watching her in action, "no one should underestimate" her.

Trump and Pelosi did not speak for weeks during the shutdown. The two spoke by phone on Jan. 28 to confirm details of the State of the Union.

Conflict between presidents and House speakers from opposing parties are not new. Pelosi sparred with President George W. Bush the first time she was speaker, at one point calling him "a total failure." But Pelosi told USA TODAY in December she was nostalgic for the former GOP president because when negotiating, "we started with a stipulation of fact." She said that baseline does not exist with Trump.

Gingrich, who was speaker during the second longest shutdown on record, under President Bill Clinton, said Trump and Pelosi are so far apart, it's hard to see how they'll ever compromise.

“Clinton and I were not that far apart – he’d run as a centrist Democrat," Gingrich said.
"There were a lot of places where we could find a common ground. It’s much harder, it seems to me, dealing with Pelosi, to imagine any kind of common ground."

The mutual mistrust could hamper progress on policies where there had long been some hope for bipartisanship, such as on reducing the price of prescription drugs or increasing federal spending on infrastructure.

“I don’t think the shutdown impasse completely precludes working together on an issue of mutual concern in the future,” said longtime GOP strategist Michael DuHaime. “But it certainly doesn’t look like this relationship will ever be confused with Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill finding compromise."