The MLB Deal With Cuba: Measuring the Value of Cuban Players

Baseball in Havana, Cuba between the Rays and the Cuban National team 3/22/16 - a step along the way to the three-year deal (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Baseball has been a way of life in Cuba, and the impact of Cubans in Major League Baseball has been large - both on the field and financially to the sport. Just looking at the 49 Cubans who defected since 2000 and made the Majors, their estimated total value has been $1.73 billion (adjusted to 2018), with $972 million in total salaries paid plus $199 million in posting fees and signing bonuses.

However, players have had to defect or be trafficked out of Cuba, until the recent announcement of a three-year agreement among MLB, the MLBPA, and the Cuban Baseball Federation. The agreement finally allows legal and open pathways for Cuban players to come and play in the US and Canada. “For years, Major League Baseball has been seeking to end the trafficking of baseball players from Cuba by criminal organizations by creating a safe and legal alternative for those players to sign with Major League clubs,” Rob Manfred, MLB commissioner of MLB stated. “We believe that this agreement accomplishes that objective and will allow the next generation of Cuban players to pursue their dream without enduring many of the hardships experienced by current and former Cuban players who have played Major League Baseball.” For details on the agreement itself, see John Perrotto's Forbes article here.

Famous Cubans over history have included Hall of Famer Tony Perez, Minnie Minoso, Rafael Palmero, Luis Tiant, Jose Canseco, Tony Oliva, among others. But what have more recent players performed, and was it worth it for MLB teams? The answer has been a resounding yes. Below are the yearly number of defectors since 2000 that went on to play in the Majors:

Cuban defections since 2000

Ari Kaplan

The Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers initially signed Cuban defectors the most:

Cuban defectors signed since 2000, by team

Ari Kaplan

So, the higher in the chart the more value ; the more to the right the more salary. Escobar and Ramirez were the two big standouts in ROI, and Cespedes, Puig, Chapman were other top contributors, as shown in the chart. The players above the line added more value compared to salary, compared to the average of the Cuban defectors:

Cuban ROI by player

Ari Kaplan

Overall, batters were a better ROI than pitchers. Batters netted a net value of $19.6mm while pitchers $14mm.

Batters:

65% of these players were batters:

Produced $1.35 billion in value offensively to their MLB organizations, but cost $7.2 million defensively. These values are based on today's market, based on $8 million per WAR

On average, the value of a player was $43.5 million offensively and -$232k defensively while incurring an average of $23.6mm salary (over their career and through the 2018 season)

Moving forward, eligible players need to have 6+ years of service time or be at least 25 years old. Financially, the Cuban baseball federation would receive 15-25% of the signing bonus, which is still a bargain considering the past 18 years of ROI coming out of Cuba. This agreement makes sense on multiple levels, and if implemented will continue to improve the quality of players in our great game.