ip journal

The current imbalance in Franco-German relations hurts everyone

A crisis in Franco-German relations has arrived, just in time for the celebration of 50th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty. This cannot be chalked up to the weakness of the French economy alone; the focus on budgetary questions inside the relationship has also advanced the inequality. Three recommendations to rekindle the romance between these two partners

ip journal

Those who wish for Great Britain to remain in the EU should advocate for reforms in Brussels

David Cameron has delivered his long awaited "speech on Europe" and announced that Britain will hold a referendum on EU membership. Despite recent warnings by the US administration against Britain leaving the EU, the British public seems more skeptical than ever. The debate about British relationship with Europe will continue at these new heights until the citizens vote. The clear “in or out” option could help mobilize a coalition of EU supporters, and reforms in Brussels would help the European cause in the UK.

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Clearly, the future still does not look rosy for the Eurozone. But three years into the euro crisis, Angela Merkel, whose global recognition has skyrocketed in the course of the crisis, remains in surprisingly good shape. As many times as worries that the euro rescue will ultimately fail might have kept her up at night over this past year — she doesn’t look it.

British elites have quite suddenly become comfortable with the idea of the UK exiting the European Union in the next few years, and their counterparts on the European mainland seem to have accepted the prospect as well. Continental leaders will not bear Britain ill-will for leaving, at least not if London does it right.

Londoners are flocking to Berlin these days. During the last two years the Brits calling Berlin or stopping by to chat with Berlin’s political analysts seemed to mostly come from the financial sector. But as eurozone governments have begun transitioning from crisis mode into the messy business of sorting out the longer-term fixes, it’s now Britain's politicians who are showing up in Berlin to discuss Europe.

The European Parliament is pushing for a formula to redistribute asylum seekers across EU countries. Most member states instead favor harmonizing their laws to preserve more national sovereignty. But a mechanism at the European level could yield far more efficient results.

It's nothing short of astounding. Poland and France are warming up to each other, and it is France that has led the way. Francois Hollande visited Warsaw during his presidential campaign and met with President Bronisław Komorowski, and in July minister of foreign affairs Laurent Fabius and minister of defense Jean-Yves Le Drian had meetings with their Polish counterparts. Moreover, both the Poles and the French have set an intense bilateral agenda and are pushing to revive the Weimar Triangle format.

The EU is in the process of finding itself again—and the success of this endeavor is far from guaranteed. However, the fact that the debate has started, and that it is more controversial than in the past, is basically a good sign. The new Union will be forged by a new culture of debate, elections, and referenda—or it will fail.

There is now a real chance the UK will leave the European Union. As the eurozone begins a process of accelerated integration and British Prime Minister David Cameron comes under increasing pressure from Euroskeptic Conservative MPs and public opinion, a moment of truth may come sooner rather than later. Crucially, the British question will also depend on choices the eurozone—and Germany in particular—make in response to the euro crisis.

“Merkozy” has been history since the French presidential elections. Francois Hollande wants to steer Europe on a different course than his predecessor, whether in fiscal or economic policy. This will have an impact on Franco-German cooperation: Can a new “Homer” establish an equal partnership that can steer Europe through the crisis?

The European External Action Service lacks a true international personality to match those of most EU member states. The fault does not lie with the Service, but rather in design flaws dating back to the Lisbon Treaty in which the EEAS was first established. It is these flaws that help member states ensure the Service cannot override their own national interests.

Berlin remains unwilling to project military force, even alongside allies. But it has become less hesitant to flex its economic muscles, especially in Europe. Traditionally thought of as a “civilian power,” Germany’s foreign policy has become more assertive in pursuit of profits for its firms, even perhaps at the cost of its broader political interests.