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Poroshenko might win it all on May 25, avoiding a runoff. That would would ease the strain of mounting a second ballot in the east. The first one is already proving hard enough to hold with the separatists trying to close down polls in areas they control.

Ukraine’s interim government might have more to lose by postponing the elections than by carrying on under current circumstances. Choosing a new, popularly elected president would add legitimacy to Kiev’s government, which could help facilitate negotiations in the east. On the other hand, carrying ahead without electoral stations in the east could fuel frustrations that Kiev is ignoring the demands of eastern Ukrainians.

The current presidential front-runner, Petro Poroshenko, has been playing up the importance of going ahead with the election in the coming weeks and uniting behind one candidate—him—to avoid the possibility of a long and divisive presidential runoff election.
Story: Ukraine's Government Gains the Advantage Over the Separatists

According to a poll from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, conducted from April 29 to May 11, 54 percent of eligible voters who had already made up their minds as to whom they were going to vote for said they would cast ballots for Poroshenko. Former Prime Minister and leader of the Batkivshchyna political party Yulia Tumashenko came in second at 9.6 percent. Some 34 percent of all respondents said they would vote for Poroshenko, with Tumashenko trailing in second place, with 5.9 percent.

Poroshenko has steadily moved toward the top of the polls, in part, because he is the least tainted of all the presidential candidates. The “chocolate king,” as he is known in Ukraine, made billions through his candy company, Roshen; his business dealings are considered, by Ukrainian standards, relatively honest. During his time in politics, Poroshenko worked in Viktor Yushenko’s pro-Western government as well as in Viktor Yanukovych’s pro-Russian government, and he has emerged untainted by large public scandals.

A veteran politician, Poroshenko has said he does not support lustration, or political purification that would flush the old ranks from Ukraine’s new government. However, he has promised snap parliamentary elections by the end of this year to placate voters who are frustrated that many members of Parliament who colluded with the Yanukovych government are still in office.

Then there's this...more confusion as to where Russia stands on the elections. Russia appears not to be speaking with one voice. On the other hand, Russia has complained that free elections cannot be held while Ukraine troops are in the field. If Ukraine troops stay the course, Russia would have a pretext, if needed, for not recognizing the winner.

What does the interim government do? Pull back, taking the pressure off the separatists, or stay put and risk the appearance that the election was not fair because it took place under the army's guns? What's the consensus here? How about Ukraine to Russia, we'll pull back when you pull back.

Russia says Ukraine election may aggravate crisis

MOSCOW Tue May 20, 2014 3:31pm EDT

(Reuters) - Sunday's presidential election in Ukraine will deepen political divisions in the country if there is no end to hostilities and a "road map" to end the crisis is not implemented, a senior Russian official was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin's remarks were the latest from Moscow to cast doubt on whether Russia will consider the election legitimate.

In a report on talks between Karasin and British ambassador to Russia Tim Barrow, the Foreign Ministry underlined the importance of the "road map" drawn up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and constitutional reforms following an agreement reached at talks in Geneva.

"Without the implementation of these agreements, and the immediate cessation of hostilities by (Ukrainian) army units southeastern regions, the May 25 election can only worsen the differences in the country," the ministry said.

At the talks in Geneva, the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union agreed moves to ease tensions in Ukraine,

following Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the seizure of buildings in the east by pro-Russian forces.

President Vladimir Putin has said Sunday's election could be "a step in the right direction" but other Russian officials have signaled Moscow may not recognize the outcome, especially if Kiev continues to use the armed forces in eastern Ukraine.

The pro-Western authorities in Kiev, who are not recognized by Moscow, have deployed military and security forces in the east to try to regain control of buildings seized by the pro-Russian separatists.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said these operations "block any real steps towards de-escalation of the situation".

Russia also wants constitutional reforms to give more autonomy to mainly Russian-speaking regions in the east.

Since they're locked in a stalemate anyway, I think government forces should avoid kinetic operations until after the election. The last thing needed now would be another high death toll on the scale of Odessa.

I am not positive about the mechanics of this particular snap-election, but in most of the ex-Soviet republics, an election is considered legitimate if 50% of registered voters cast a ballot. In all previous presidential elections since independence (4), the lowest voter turnout has has been 68%. Most polls indicate that Poroshenko has 55% of decided voters.

In Belarus, registered Ukrainians can vote tomorrow at the Ukraine Embassy in Minsk or the Consulate in Brest. There are no such accommodations for the 2 million Ukrainians living in the Russian Federation. Registered Ukrainian voters living in Crimea will have to travel to the mainland to vote.

Infographic below shows the position of the candidates in relation to Unity/Federation & NATO-EU/Russia.

Polls opened at 8am on a nice sunny Sunday (it is 82° in Zaporozhye at 10am). Due to threats against their lives, international monitors have left the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Journalists report that 426 polling stations out of a total 2,430 in the Donetsk Region are operable. None of the the 2,510 polling stations in the city of Donetsk nor the 1,483 polling stations in the city of Luhansk are open. Exit polls should provide a snapshot of election results by tonight. The official numbers should be available by Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

Слава Україна! / Slava Ukrayina! / Glory to Ukraine!

For a variety of reasons, the above constitutes my last WAB post in regards to contemporary events in Ukraine.

Does Ukraine really need any aid?

It seems that it doesn't. Ukrainians haven't yet implemented a single condition required for receiving further IMF financial aid. Christine Lagarde already registered disproval in her letter to Ukrainian PM.