What We’re Watching in Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is either a revolutionary IT management tool or a nebulous puff of marketing hype, depending on whom you ask. For now, we’re thinking it’s puffery—but intriguing developments are under way.

A Cloudy Concept

Rather than house your own IT servers or rent the maximum processing and storage capacity you’ll ever need, why not pay only for what you use, when you use it? That’s the basic idea behind cloud computing—and it’s an alluring possibility for many reasons, not least the desire to contain costs and reduce energy consumption. But it turns out that much of the appeal is based on a murky understanding of the concept.

According to research by Gartner group vice president Mark McDonald, the percentage of CIOs interested in cloud computing has grown considerably, from 5% in 2009 to 37% earlier this year. And the bigger the company, the more likely management is to say that cloud computing is a top-five IT priority.

Interest in Cloud Computing

But three out of four respondents who profess interest in cloud computing report little to none in three of the key technologies it entails: server virtualization, service-oriented architecture, and software as a service. Further, nearly half the respondents equate cloud computing with virtualization alone, which shows that many executives have an incomplete view of it.

Cloud computing has rapidly risen to what McDonald calls “the peak of inflated expectations.” And where is it headed next? The “trough of disillusionment,” he says. That’s because few people can even seem to agree on what cloud computing is, never mind how on earth it should work.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) IT laboratory’s definition, version 15, is more than 760 words long and includes five characteristics, three service models, four deployment models, and a disclaimer saying, in essence, that the definition will change again soon.

Is the Cloud Greener?

Despite all the confusion about cloud computing, the IT laboratory at NIST lays out some figures that make a compelling environmental case for it.

According to one NIST presentation, the number of servers in traditional data centers in the U.S. doubled from 2001 to 2006. Power consumption per server quadrupled in the same time period, even though servers typically operate at only 15% of capacity.

Most servers in traditional data centers operate at only 15% of capacity—yet those data centers consume 1.5% of all electricity generated in the United States.

Yet those data centers, according to EPA figures cited by NIST, consume 1.5% of all electricity generated in the United States (compared with 0.6% worldwide in 2000). Globally, IT produces 2% of CO2 emissions.

Businesses that go with cloud computing could improve sustainability in two ways. First, companies maximize servers by sharing them, so fewer machines are chugging away. Second, on-demand usage means that firms needn’t consume way above their needs during slow times in order to be ready for busy times.

Hidden Fees in the Cloud?

So the energy benefits are real, but what about costs? Getting rid of all those in-house servers is supposed to save scads of money. Then again, maybe not.

Amy Spellmann of Optimal Innovations, Richard Gimarc of Hyperformix, and Mark Preston of RS Performance conceived of hypothetical retail website faced with a choice between managing servers in house and signing up for Amazon’s cloud-computing service. They projected costs and energy consumption two years out for each option. The verdict: A cloud-based website is less expensive than in-house servers at first but may cost more over time, even after you account for energy savings. That’s because data transfer charges increase as cloud service grows and requires more processing power.

Though on a much larger scale, this seems a lot like cell phone service, which is reasonably priced until you start incurring all those charges for extra minutes and texting.

Data in 3-D

Companies that move to a cloud-computing model may encounter unintended positive consequences if users take to the Cloud Mouse. This peripheral device—still in development—looks like an egg, works something like a joystick, and allows you to navigate the data generated by the massive number of users in the cloud through a dynamic three-dimensional interface (think The Matrix minus the martial arts). The Cloud Mouse is a project of Microsoft researcher Richard Harper and his collaborators at Microsoft Research Asia.

On the one hand, this seems kind of silly—isn’t everything going the way of the touch screen anyhow? But on the other, imagine a new class of skilled technicians who could move through and whip around 3-D computing data with the ease of an ultrasound specialist or a Wii player.