First 2009 Preseason Rankings — WRs

Like my tight end rankings, the wide receiver rankings were compiled with point-per-reception (PPR) scoring in mind. While I did rely largely on final 2008 regular season statistics, I also tried to factor in future expectations for a player’s production and legitimate upside or downside potential. I also decided to disregard rookies for now, because it would be way too challenging to predict which teams will draft a wide receiver and how well that player will perform.

The rankings are subject to change. Since the start of the 2009 fantasy football season is obviously more than six months away, keep in mind that many things can happen between now and then that could positively or negatively affect a player’s fantasy value. Some National Football League teams are currently hiring new coaching staffs and will install new offensive schemes, and we obviously have not gone through Free Agency or the 2009 NFL Draft yet.

Key to the abbreviations used in the tables:

G= Games played

TAR= Targets (number of times the player was thrown to)

RZT= Red-zone targets (number of times the player was thrown to inside an opponents’ 20-yard line)

IN5= Inside 5-yard line (number of times the player was thrown to inside an opponents’ 5-yard line)

REC= Receptions

YDS= Receiving yards

TD= Touchdowns

FP= Fantasy points accumulated during the regular season using PPR scoring (one point per catch and one point per 10 yards receiving)

Fitzgerald deserves the nod as the No. 1 rated fantasy wide receiver based on his astonishing consistency. He has amassed close to 100 receptions and 1,400 receiving yards while scoring 10-plus touchdowns in three of the last four years (2005, 2007 and 2008). This past season, the No. 1 option in the ultra-productive Arizona passing game either topped the 100-yard receiving mark or scored in 13 of 16 regular season contests and finished the year ranked in the top five in all the major statistical categories for wide receivers. By the way, Fitzgerald never failed to score at least 10 fantasy points in a 2008 regular season outing. As long as quarterback Kurt Warner (potential unrestricted free agent) is under center, Fitzgerald is one of the safest, most reliable fantasy options in the league.

With backup quarterback Matt Cassel under center and learning on the job for essentially all of 2008, Moss’ numbers dropped off dramatically (235.8 fantasy points; eight games with 100-plus receiving yards or a score) from his outstanding 2007 performance. Although the odds are against Moss scoring 23 touchdowns in a season (2007) again, we all know that he is still one of the top receivers in the NFL and a fantasy stud with a healthy quarterback Tom Brady under center. Following offseason knee surgery, it looks like Brady is on schedule to return for the 2009 season – that is what the Patriots are telling us right now – so I will rank Moss accordingly. In 2007, Moss garnered 98 receptions for 1,423 yards and 23 touchdowns (378.3 fantasy points; 13 games with either 100-plus receiving yards or at least one score) with Brady chucking the rock. Moss’ 2009 production should be much closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2008 statistics.

The physically giftEd Johnson has compiled at least 100 receptions and 1,100 receiving yards in two of his last three seasons. In 2006, he led the NFL in catches (103) and was on pace to repeat that feat in 2007, but a knee injury forced him to miss seven games. This past season, Johnson posted career highs in receptions and receiving yards while tying his career-best scoring mark. TheMiami (Fla.) product also rolled up 100 receiving yards or scored in 11 of 16 regular season games played and notched a whopping 10-plus catches in seven outings. Johnson, however, occasionally disappeared in tougher matchups, posting single-digit fantasy point totals in three contests, but this is obviously a minor criticism. Don’t worry about brittle starting quarterback Matt Schaub, who has missed a combined 10 games during the last two regular seasons. Although most of Johnson’s best games have come with Schaub under center, Johnson also has posted some great games with backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels at the helm of theHouston offense.

If Smith had played 16 regular season games in 2008 (two-game suspension for punching out teammate Ken Lucas), the nine-year pro could have amassed close to 158 targets, 90 catches for 1,617 yards and seven touchdowns (292.9 fantasy points). Despite playing with the occasionally struggling quarterback Jake Delhomme, Smith amassed his highest receiving yardage total since 2005 while his reception and scoring numbers were close to his career norms. In addition, Smith posted 90-plus receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 10 of 14 regular season games. Although the Panthers have returned to their power-running ways, Smith should still rack up the catches and receiving yards, but he will probably continue to lose a few scores to the club’s runners. There is some question about whether Delhomme will return to the Panthers in 2009. A new quarterback inCarolina could negatively impact Smith’s fantasy stock.

Jennings developed some outstanding on-field chemistry with new starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, emerging as the go-to receiver on a team that utilizes a pass-first offense to compensate for a mediocre-at-best running game and a below-average defense. Bottom line –Jennings should see a lot of passes thrown his way in 2009. TheWestern Michigan product finished 2008 on a strong note, amassing career-highs in catches and receiving yards while scoring five touchdowns in his last seven games. In addition,Jennings finally demonstrated some durability, playing all 16 regular season contests while racking up 100-plus receiving yards or a touchdown in 11 outings. On the downside,Jennings’ teammate, wide receiver Donald Driver (74 catches for 1,012 yards and five scores in 2008) is still a capable player, so do not expect a major uptick inJennings’ numbers.

It’s funny to look back and remember how far down White had slid in many 2008 fantasy drafts, because a lot of owners did not have confidence in then-rookie quarterback Matt Ryan’s ability to get the ball to White consistently. White, however, shocked everyone, posting career-high numbers across the board as the club’s No. 1 receiver thanks to Ryan’s unexpectedly rock-solid play. As one of the more consistent fantasy receivers in the league, White caught at least four passes in 13 of 16 regular season games and compiled at least 90 yards receiving or scored in 10 outings. Assuming the Falcons do not add another big-play pass-catcher, White will continue his role as Ryan’s go-to guy.Atlanta is a run-first club with an improving defense, which means that White may not find himself in many shootouts this upcoming season.

If the Lions roll with quarterback Daunte Culpepper as their starter for the entire regular season (or even quarterback Dan Orlovsky), Johnson deserves a higher ranking. Every team the Lions faced last season knew the giftEd Johnson was the main target in their passing game, but “Megatron” still rolled up solid fantasy point totals just about every week. Johnson piled up at least 90 receiving yards or scored in 12 of 16 regular season outings, and he notched 10-plus fantasy points in 14 of 16 contests. On the downside, Johnson topped the 100-yard receiving mark just four times. Johnson’s weekly reception total also varied quite a bit, but he made up for it by finding the end zone 12 times, which obviously means that his fantasy production was heavily touchdown dependent. If the Lions decide to draft a quarterback and start him in Week 1, Johnson’s fantasy value obviously will take a major hit.

Marshallfinished his 2008 regular season campaign ranked in the Top 11 in all the major statistical categories for wide receivers, but his numbers were inflated by a mind-blowing Week 1 performance (18 catches for 166 yards and one score) against the Oakland Raiders. If you substitute Marshall’s per-game averages (six catches for 80 yards and 0.4 touchdowns) in place of the numbers posted in that monster game, he would have piled up just 92 catches for 1,185 yards and seven scores (252.5 fantasy points) on the season. Nevertheless,Marshall’s big-play ability has earned him a place among the Top 10 fantasy receivers. Last season,Marshall recorded seven games with 90-plus receiving yards or a score. He also came close to logging 90 yards receiving in two other outings.Marshall will share targets with capable wide receiver Eddie Royal and will have to learn new head coach Josh McDaniels’ offense, which hopefully will resemble the pass-happy attack that McDaniels ran inNew England as that club’s offensive coordinator.

Based on his physical playing style and impressive fantasy production as the No. 2 option in the prolificArizona passing game, Boldin deserves a higher ranking. However, his durability issues are a concern. Boldin has played a full 16-game regular season schedule just once in the last five years, missing an average of three contests per season. Boldin was productive when he was on the field in 2008, scoring a career-high 11 touchdowns while amassing at least 90 yards receiving or scoring a touchdown in eight of 12 regular season games played. In addition, Boldin caught five or more passes in 11 of 12 contests. If you chose Boldin, you should expect him to miss anywhere from two-to-four regular season games. His fantasy value is obviously tied to the presence of quarterback Kurt Warner (potential unrestricted free agent). The disgruntled Boldin, as you probably know, is unhappy inArizona and has requested a trade. If Boldin changes teams, which seems unlikely, his new playing situation obviously would dictate his fantasy value.

Wayneis clearly the top option in the Colts passing attack, but he disappointed many fantasy owners who had expected an encore of his career-best 104 catches for 1,510 yards (with 10 scores) from 2007. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison had missed most of 2007, which had opened the door forWayne’s outstanding numbers. However, Harrison returned in 2008 and siphoned some catches, receiving yards and scores away fromWayne. Actually,Wayne’s 2008 statistics were fairly close to his career averages, and he ranked in the Top 20 of all fantasy wide receivers for the sixth straight season.Wayne rolled up 90-plus receiving yards or scored in eight contests but disappeared in a handful of others. One thing to remember aboutWayne: the Colts have a solid defense and a productive running game, and don’t get into many shootouts, which is why he does not have as many huge games as other well-known receivers. The decliningHarrison is a potential salary cap casualty, unless he renegotiates his contract. If the Colts end up releasing Harrison,Wayne obviously would have some pleasing upside.

I have nicknamed this guy “Mr. Underappreciated.” Although he did not find the end zone very often and rarely posted huge fantasy games last season, Welker was one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in the league. Despite catching passes from backup quarterback Matt Cassel, Welker’s 2008 numbers were surprisingly similar to the 2007 statistics (112 receptions for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns; 277.5 fantasy points) that he had posted with quarterback Tom Brady under center. In 2008, Welker caught six-plus passes in 14 of 16 regular season games but topped the 100-yard receiving yard mark just four times. He also averaged 72 receiving yards and 15.4 fantasy points per contest. Regardless of whoever starts at quarterback for the Patriots in 2009, you should expect another strong season from Welker and an uptick in his scoring.

Colston missed six games due to thumb surgery, which obviously hurt his overall fantasy production. If you project the fourth-year pro’s 2008 numbers out over a full 16-game regular season schedule, you get 75 catches for 1,216 yards and eight touchdowns, which obviously tells us that he was still productive in limited duty. Colston amassed 90-plus receiving yards or scored in six out of 10 regular season outings. He also finished 2008 on a positive note, averaging 5.33 receptions for 84.7 yards and 0.83 touchdowns per game during his last six contests. With emerging wide receiver Lance Moore (potential unrestricted free agent), tight end Jeremy Shockey and running back Reggie Bush also in the mix, there are only so many receptions to go around. Nevertheless, Colston is still a great fantasy option in one of the league’s best passing attacks. IfMoore leaves via free agency, Colston’s fantasy stock gets a boost.

Entering his third season, Bowe is definitely poised to break out. He quietly closed out 2008 ranked No. 4 among all wide receivers in targets. Bowe also ranked in the Top 10 in most of the other statistical categories for wide receivers, except for receiving yards and fantasy points. The former LSU star either scored or registered 90-plus receiving yards in 10 out of 16 regular season outings, but he topped the 100-yard receiving mark only twice. Bowe also caught four or more passes in 12 games. Since tight end Tony Gonzalez is the No. 1 option in theKansas City passing attack, there is probably a ceiling on Bowe’s fantasy production. If the Chiefs elect to start a rookie quarterback instead of quarterback Tyler Thigpen for a majority of the season, Bowe’s fantasy stock obviously will take a huge hit, and he will drop in the rankings.

Despite catching passes from backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for most of the 2008 season (Carson Palmer missed 12 games with an elbow injury) while playing for a 2-14 disaster of a team, Houshmandzadeh’s fantasy numbers were surprisingly good overall. Although he did not match his career-year statistics from 2007, Houshmandzadeh’s 2008 digits were close to his career averages. The nine-year pro caught four or more balls in 12 out of 15 regular season games played, averaging 6.5 receptions for 64.6 yards per outing. Houshmandzadeh will be 33 years old next season and is currently a potential unrestricted free agent. According to reports, the Bengals are not expected to franchise “Housh” or ink him to a long-term deal. Assuming Houshmandzadeh stays inCincinnati, we should see an uptick in his numbers from 2008 – particularly in receiving yardage and scoring – with a presumably healthy quarterback Palmer back under center. However, if Houshmandzadeh signs with another team, his fantasy value will rise or decline, depending on the situation.

15.Chad ‘Ocho Cinco’ Johnson

YEAR

G

TAR

RZT

IN5

REC

YDS

TD

FP

2008

13

99

15

4

53

540

4

131

Rank

—

29

T13

T7

T31

58

T9

45

Since quarterback Carson Palmer missed 12 games due to an elbow injury, the long ball was missing from theCincinnati offense last season, which severely impactEd Johnson’s fantasy value. Although he was on his best behavior most of the year (except for a one-game suspension for walking out of a team meeting), ‘Ocho Cinco’ posted his worst numbers since 2001. Assuming Palmer returns healthy, a bounce-back season from ‘Ocho Cinco’ is very likely. Can you devalue a player who has averaged 92 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns per season from 2003 to 2007? From a fantasy perspective, however, ‘Ocho Cinco’ has been an inconsistent performer. Historically, theOregonState product has posted some huge yardage and scoring games, but he also has logged some painfully low-scoring contests for his owners. Nevertheless, ‘Ocho Cinco’ is still a solid fantasy option. His fantasy stock would increase if wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (potential unrestricted free agent) leaves via free agency.

Since it’s starting to look like quarterback Brett Favre will not return to the Jets, I will rank Cotchery here for now. Why do I think an uptick in Cotchery’s numbers is possible for 2009? Cotchery averaged 82 catches for 1,046 yards and four touchdowns per season from 2006 to 2007, and he is the favorite receiver of presumed new starting quarterback Kellen Clemens. Despite losing some targets to tight end Dustin Keller last season, Cotchery registered eight games with either 70-plus yards receiving or a touchdown while averaging 4.4 catches for 53.6 yards per contest. On the downside, Cotchery notched just one catch in four contests, but he was more consistent with Clemens under center. TheNorth CarolinaState product has decent speed, but he is not a burner. If Favre plays another season in the Big Apple, Cotchery should obviously drop in the rankings.

With promising young quarterback Joe Flacco under center for the Ravens, the fantasy-value arrow is definitely pointing up for Mason. During 2008, the 13-year veteran quietly ranked No. 18 in targets among all wide receivers and logged 70-plus yards receiving or scored in nine out of 16 regular season contests played. Mason also closed out the second half of 2008 averaging 4.8 receptions for 60 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per outing and had looked stellar in the playoffs as Flacco’s go-to receiver. The Ravens passing game seems to go through just Mason and wide receiver Mark Clayton, which bodes well for Mason’s fantasy value. SinceBaltimore is a run-first team with a great defense and rarely gets into shootouts, do not expect a major uptick in Mason’s 2009 numbers.

Since it’s starting to look like quarterback Brett Favre will not return to the Jets, I will rank Cotchery here for now. Why do I think an uptick in Cotchery’s numbers is possible for 2009? Cotchery averaged 82 catches for 1,046 yards and four touchdowns per season from 2006 to 2007, and he is the favorite receiver of presumed new starting quarterback Kellen Clemens. Despite losing some targets to tight end Dustin Keller last season, Cotchery registered eight games with either 70-plus yards receiving or a touchdown while averaging 4.4 catches for 53.6 yards per contest. On the downside, Cotchery notched just one catch in four contests, but he was more consistent with Clemens under center. TheNorth CarolinaState product has decent speed, but he is not a burner. If Favre plays another season in the Big Apple, Cotchery should obviously drop in the rankings.

Last season, Moss posted his highest reception and receiving yardage numbers since 2005, thanks to the improved play of quarterback Jason Campbell. If you think Moss should be rated higher based on his 2008 numbers, a look at his game logs says otherwise. The No. 1 option in theWashington passing attack logged 80-plus yards receiving or a touchdown in seven out of 15 contests played. However, Moss’ season was a tale of two halves. From Week 1 to Week 10, he averaged six catches for 94 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per outing. On the other hand, from Week 11 to Week 17, Moss scored just one time while averaging 4.6 catches for 48.3 yards per game. The speedster has great physical gifts, shiftiness and hands, but Moss is usually an injury waiting to happen, and – you guessed it – nagging injuries hampered him late in the season. Anything ranging from 75-85 catches for 1,000-1,100 yards and 5-10 touchdowns seems to be the ceiling for Moss’ fantasy production.

Since it’s starting to look like quarterback Brett Favre will not return to the Jets, I will rank Cotchery here for now. Why do I think an uptick in Cotchery’s numbers is possible for 2009? Cotchery averaged 82 catches for 1,046 yards and four touchdowns per season from 2006 to 2007, and he is the favorite receiver of presumed new starting quarterback Kellen Clemens. Despite losing some targets to tight end Dustin Keller last season, Cotchery registered eight games with either 70-plus yards receiving or a touchdown while averaging 4.4 catches for 53.6 yards per contest. On the downside, Cotchery notched just one catch in four contests, but he was more consistent with Clemens under center. TheNorth CarolinaState product has decent speed, but he is not a burner. If Favre plays another season in the Big Apple, Cotchery should obviously drop in the rankings.

With promising young quarterback Joe Flacco under center for the Ravens, the fantasy-value arrow is definitely pointing up for Mason. During 2008, the 13-year veteran quietly ranked No. 18 in targets among all wide receivers and logged 70-plus yards receiving or scored in nine out of 16 regular season contests played. Mason also closed out the second half of 2008 averaging 4.8 receptions for 60 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per outing and had looked stellar in the playoffs as Flacco’s go-to receiver. The Ravens passing game seems to go through just Mason and wide receiver Mark Clayton, which bodes well for Mason’s fantasy value. SinceBaltimore is a run-first team with a great defense and rarely gets into shootouts, do not expect a major uptick in Mason’s 2009 numbers.

Since it’s starting to look like quarterback Brett Favre will not return to the Jets, I will rank Cotchery here for now. Why do I think an uptick in Cotchery’s numbers is possible for 2009? Cotchery averaged 82 catches for 1,046 yards and four touchdowns per season from 2006 to 2007, and he is the favorite receiver of presumed new starting quarterback Kellen Clemens. Despite losing some targets to tight end Dustin Keller last season, Cotchery registered eight games with either 70-plus yards receiving or a touchdown while averaging 4.4 catches for 53.6 yards per contest. On the downside, Cotchery notched just one catch in four contests, but he was more consistent with Clemens under center. TheNorth CarolinaState product has decent speed, but he is not a burner. If Favre plays another season in the Big Apple, Cotchery should obviously drop in the rankings.

Last season, Moss posted his highest reception and receiving yardage numbers since 2005, thanks to the improved play of quarterback Jason Campbell. If you think Moss should be rated higher based on his 2008 numbers, a look at his game logs says otherwise. The No. 1 option in theWashington passing attack logged 80-plus yards receiving or a touchdown in seven out of 15 contests played. However, Moss’ season was a tale of two halves. From Week 1 to Week 10, he averaged six catches for 94 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per outing. On the other hand, from Week 11 to Week 17, Moss scored just one time while averaging 4.6 catches for 48.3 yards per game. The speedster has great physical gifts, shiftiness and hands, but Moss is usually an injury waiting to happen, and – you guessed it – nagging injuries hampered him late in the season. Anything ranging from 75-85 catches for 1,000-1,100 yards and 5-10 touchdowns seems to be the ceiling for Moss’ fantasy production.

Although the aging Driver has settled in as the No. 2 option in theGreen Bay passing attack, he continues to post some consistent fantasy production. Driver’s 2008 receiving numbers were on par with his 2007 statistics, so what you saw from him during the last two seasons is probably close to what you will get in 2009. Looking back at 2008, Driver posted seven games with either 70-plus receiving yards or a touchdown while averaging 4.6 catches for 63.2 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per outing. In addition, Driver caught at least four passes in 13 of 16 games played. He should continue his role as an important safety valve for quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a pass-first offense.

About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.