Transcription

1 Review of Nancy Cartwright, Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics Kevin D. Hoover Departments of Economics and Philosophy Duke University Box Durham, North Carolina January 2009

2 Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics. By Nancy Cartwright. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, pp. x Hardback IBSN $85.00; paperback $ For the past thirty years, Nancy Cartwright has been one of the most significant philosophers of science. Beginning with a focus on physics, she was at the forefront of the movement to use philosophy to help to understand the practices of physics as seen from the working physicists point of view rather than simply to pronounce on those practices from an Olympian, but perhaps irrelevant, perspective. Starting with her Nature s Capacities and Their Measurement (1989), she has steadily taken in a wider scope of sciences, including social sciences. In Cartwright s view, economics is not some poor stepchild to physics but a significant part of a complex world in which the sciences are not (as so often thought by philosophers, physical scientists, and economists alike) arranged in a clear hierarchy in which each of the special sciences is reducible to the more basic sciences physics forming the bedrock. Cartwright has also been a major player in the philosophical analysis of causation, a role that suits her turn towards economics, which has been undergoing a causal revival in, for example, the work of Granger in time-series econometrics, Heckman in microeconomic policy analysis, and the program of natural experiments in applied microeconomics. Given this background a new book by Nancy Cartwright particularly one that singles out economics in its subtitle is surely a welcome event. Hunting Causes and Using Them unfortunately represents a missed opportunity. It is not a systematic treatise but a compilation of occasional papers written with various particular and mainly philosophical targets in view. The papers have been too lightly 1

3 edited to form coherent chapters in a unified volume. They are frequently repetitive, and notation shifts from chapter to chapter. It is often difficult to appreciate fully the point of the chapter without the full context of the debates to which they originally contributed. They are heavy sledding for an economist not already immersed in those debates. Despite professing to seeing useful insights in various approaches, Cartwright s method is more critical than constructive. And she sometimes misunderstands the approaches that she criticizes. For example, I do not recognize my own position in her account of my analysis of causal order (chapter 14). She attributes causal judgments to me that straightforward application of the formal definitions of chapter 3 of my Causality in Macroeconomics (2001) contradict. This is unfortunate, as she is a deeply insightful philosopher with a rare connection to actual practice; and, even here, her discussion is full of genuine insights about causation and the problems of modeling it. A constructive treatise that tempered her criticism with a lucid exposition of its objects would have been exceedingly helpful. Three themes dominate Hunting Causes. The first is that cause is a plural concept. The methods and metaphysics of causation, she believes, are context dependent. Different causal accounts seem to be at odds with one another only because the same word means different things in different contexts. Every formal approach to causality uses a conceptual framework that is thinner than causal reality. She lists a bewildering variety of approaches to causation: probabilistic and Bayes-net accounts (of, for example, Patrick Suppes, Clive Granger, Wolfgang Spohn, Judea Pearl, Clark Glymour); modularity accounts (Pearl, James Woodward, Stephen LeRoy); invariance accounts (Woodward, David Hendry, Kevin Hoover); natural experiments (Herbert Simon, James 2

4 Hamilton, Cartwright); causal process accounts (Wesley Salmon, Philip Dowe); efficacy accounts (Hoover); counterfactual accounts (David Lewis, Hendry, Paul Holland, Donald Rubin); manipulationist accounts (Peter Menzies, Huw Price); and others. The lists of advocates of various accounts overlap. Nevertheless, she sometimes treats these accounts as if they were so different that it is not clear why they should be the subject of a single book. And she fails to explain what they have in common. If, as she apparently believes, they do not have a common essence, do they have a Wittgensteinian family resemblance? She fails to explore in any systematic way the complementarities among the different approaches for example, between invariance accounts, Bayes nets, and natural experiments that frequently make their advocates allies rather than opponents. The second theme is her distinction between schemes that deductively clinch causal inferences and those that inductively vouch for them. Her idea is that certain schemes of causal inference work by making such strong background assumptions that inductive arguments are turned into deductive arguments. She is surely right that many arguments take the form of clinchers, conditional on background assumptions. But she is wrong to imply that advocates of these forms of argument are insensitive to the tentativeness and the fallibility of those strong background assumptions. Such sensitivity means that arguments that take the form of clinchers are, in reality, always practically vouchers. For example, with Bayes-net approaches a statistical model describes data from which probabilities are inferred; and causal order, in turn, is inferred deductively from those probabilities. The inferences are based on strong assumptions. For instance, analysts frequently assume causal sufficiency (i.e., there are no omitted variables of a 3

5 type that would confuse causal inference), the acylicality of causal structure, and the linearity of functional relationships. Serious users of Bayes-net approaches are deeply aware of the fragility of the statistics both the quality of the data and the modeling assumptions (e.g., stationarity and homogeneity). And they are aware that the assumptions about causal structure may fail in practical cases, which is why they have investigated the implications of alternative assumptions e.g., latent variables (relaxing causal sufficiency), nonlinearity, and cyclical models. And what is the alternative? Absent the strategy of embedding clinchers within maintained, but criticizable, assumptions, Cartwright provides no account of how evidence vouches for causal claims. The final theme is the distinction between hunting and using causes highlighted in the title. The distinction gets it bite in Cartwright s belief that the strategies that successfully allow the identification of casual mechanisms frequently serve policy applications ill. Building on a longstanding theme of her work, real world processes are seen as the complex composition of a variety of deeper tendencies. The function of scientific experiments is to isolate those tendencies through stringent controls so that they can be exhibited in pure form. The application of scientific knowledge in practice is frequently complicated if not thwarted altogether because the real world is open and, unlike in the laboratory, the complicating tendencies are uncontrolled. In such cases, it is not necessarily reliable to infer that effects found under stringent controls will play out similarly in the world. Her insight trades on the old distinction between internal and external validity. For example, we may discover in a randomized controlled trial that a drug is effective 4

6 against the malaria parasite; and, yet, for a variety of social and biological reasons, the drug may prove to be practically ineffective in patients. One lesson, perhaps, is that randomized controlled trials need to be supplemented with epidemiological studies. The exact same issues can arise with respect to natural experiments in economics: can the mechanism that they isolate be carried over to other policy contexts? The theme of hunting versus using causes is elaborated in the final chapter on the use of counterfactuals in economics. Cartwright argues that the relevant counterfactuals isolate a cause from its own causes and set it to some value come what may. Using the same implementation-neutral strategies counterfactually to evaluate policies typically results in imposters the wrong counterfactual for the issue to hand. Genuine policy analysis typically, though not always, requires implementation-specific counterfactuals. (Not always because some policies need to be robust across different implementations if they are to be useful since, in some cases, targeting is practically restricted.) Cartwright is clearly correct that good policy requires the right counterfactuals and that, naturally, economists sometimes get it wrong. Yet, as a generic criticism, her case is not persuasive. For example, a straightforward reading of the Lucas critique, which Cartwright cites in other parts of the book with other purposes, is precisely as a plea for understanding counterfactuals in a causally structured, implementation-specific manner. Implementation of policy requires the specification of conditional rules and not a come-what-may setting of particular variables. Nancy Cartwright has once again written an intellectually challenging book, full of insights. It is too bad that the presentation is not well adapted to an audience of 5

7 econometricians and applied economists, for whom the issues that she considers are important and not always clearly thought through. 6

Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science Contingency and Dissent in Science Technical Report 01/07 Are RCTs the Gold Standard? Nancy Cartwright Series Editor: Damien Fennell The support of The

Biological kinds and the causal theory of reference Ingo Brigandt Department of History and Philosophy of Science 1017 Cathedral of Learning University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA 15260 E-mail: inb1@pitt.edu

INDEX OF TEMPLATES INTRODUCING WHAT THEY SAY A number of sociologists have recently suggested that X s work has several fundamental problems. It has become common today to dismiss X s contribution to the

Unifying Epistemologies by Combining World, Description and Observer Stuart Umpleby Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning The George Washington University Washington, DC Umpleby@gwu.edu

They Say, I Say: The Moves That Matter in Academic Writing Gerald Graff and Cathy Birkenstein ENTERING THE CONVERSATION Many Americans assume that Others more complicated: On the one hand,. On the other

General Philosophy Dr Peter Millican, Hertford College Lecture 3: Induction Hume s s Fork 2 Enquiry IV starts with a vital distinction between types of proposition: Relations of ideas can be known a priori

Perspectives in Philosophy Rene Descartes Descartes Philosophy is the search for certainty the search to know, for yourself, what is really true and really false to know which beliefs are reliable. However,

Epidemiology Curriculum The Georgia Performance Standards are designed to provide students with the knowledge and skills for proficiency in science. The Project 2061 s Benchmarks for Science Literacy is

1 The Set of Candidate Models Formulation of critical hypotheses and models to adequately reflect these hypotheses is conceptually more difficult than estimating the model parameters and their precision.

University of Cambridge: Programme Specifications Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this programme specification. Programme specifications are produced and then reviewed

Learning Enhancement Team Writing a Dissertation This Study Guide addresses the task of writing a dissertation. It aims to help you to feel confident in the construction of this extended piece of writing,

Betting interpretations of probability Glenn Shafer June 21, 2010 Third Workshop on Game-Theoretic Probability and Related Topics Royal Holloway, University of London 1 Outline 1. Probability began with

Philosophy 104 Chapter 8.1 Notes Inductive reasoning - The process of deriving general principles from particular facts or instances. - "induction." The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language,

H.G.B. Alexander Research Foundation Graduate School of Business University of Chicago Comments on Harold Jeffreys Theory of Probability Revisited, co-authored by C.P. Robert, N. Chopin and J. Rousseau.

Best Practices in Teaching Writing Charles Whitaker, Ph.D. Following is a list of selected teaching practices that are well recognized in the profession as being effective in helping students develop as

Global Competence Matrices on issues of global significance. Global Competence can be developed within any discipline, and it can cut across disciplines. The seven global competence matrices one main matrix

The Six Levels of Questioning Level 1 Knowledge Exhibit memory of previously-learned materials by recalling facts, terms, basic concepts, and answers. who what why when where which omit choose find how

THE BUSINESS OF THE DESIGN DOCTORATE A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF AIMS, INTERACTIONS AND IMPACTS Martin Woolley, University of the Arts, London This paper examines the aspirations of research students, whether

1 It is widely accepted by those in the scientific community that women have been systematically disregarded and discriminated against in science. However, the extent to which this has undermined aspirations

1. Synopsis a. Purpose and Anticipated Student Learning Gains: In my CJU 498 Senior Seminar Fall 2012, I implemented a new way of conducting class discussions through the use of Structured Reading Group

The Sport Psychology Professional Model - Inside Team Denmark s Sports Psychology support The sports psychology profession in Denmark has been characterized by a diversity of approaches and has acted as

FRAMING EFFECTS A framing effect is usually said to occur when equivalent descriptions of a decision problem lead to systematically different decisions. Framing has been a major topic of research in the

J. T. M. Miller, Department of Philosophy, University of Durham 1 Methodological Issues for Interdisciplinary Research Much of the apparent difficulty of interdisciplinary research stems from the nature

Open Research Online The Open University s repository of research publications and other research outputs Evaluating the impact of healthcare education: Approaches and challenges Conference Item How to

Michael Lacewing Descartes arguments for distinguishing mind and body THE KNOWLEDGE ARGUMENT In Meditation II, having argued that he knows he thinks, Descartes then asks what kind of thing he is. Discussions

New Metrics Briefing 2: Feedback to the GELP Metrics co-design group Simon Breakspear, Cambridge University The paper was prepared by Simon for the new metrics co-design group. We share it with the community

Intro to Data Analysis, Economic Statistics and Econometrics Statistics deals with the techniques for collecting and analyzing data that arise in many different contexts. Econometrics involves the development

FROM TERRIBLE TO TERRIFIC UNDERGRADUATE ECONOMICS CURRICULA: An evidence- based assessment of an intellectual disaster, and a proposal for an alternative approach to economics teaching 1 PEPS- Économie

Course participation 1. Shows a wide range of knowledge in contemporary issues in HRM Draws accurately on a few classic theories of HRM Draws accurately on a variety of classic theories of HRM and is sometimes

Market Economies and the Price System The Three Fundamental Economic Questions: WHAT is to be produced? HOW are these goods to be produced? FOR WHOM are the goods to be produced? Market Economies and the

The Series of Discussion Papers Conceptual Framework of Financial Accounting Working Group on Fundamental Concepts September 2004 (Tentative translation: 28 Feb. 2005) Contents Issuance of the Series of

APPENDIX F Science and Engineering Practices in the NGSS A Science Framework for K-12 Science Education provides the blueprint for developing the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). The Framework

Bioethics Program Program Goals and Learning Outcomes Program Goals 1. Students will develop a solid knowledge base in areas of Biology including cell biology, evolution, genetics, and molecular biology.

Introduction: What Is Data Analysis? What is the wealth of the United States? Who s got it? And how is it changing? What are the consequences of an experimental drug? Does it work, or does it not, or does

WRITING A CRITICAL ARTICLE REVIEW A critical article review briefly describes the content of an article and, more importantly, provides an in-depth analysis and evaluation of its ideas and purpose. The

IMPLEMENTATION NOTE Subject: Category: Capital No: A-1 Date: January 2006 I. Introduction The term rating system comprises all of the methods, processes, controls, data collection and IT systems that support

Should Values Clarification be a Goal of Death Education? By: James M. Eddy, and Penelope E. Duff Eddy, J.M. (1986). Should values clarification be a goal or death education? Death Studies, 10, 2, 155-163.

Becoming a Librarian Stuart Ferguson, Senior Lecturer, University of Canberra. When Nancy first mentioned the topic Becoming a Librarian I thought it sounded quite straightforward but the more I thought

PROGRAMME SPECIFICATION MA Geography in Education Awarding body: Institute of Education, University of London Teaching institution: Institute of Education, University of London Name of the final award:

9 Diagrams Helpful for Understanding Critical Thinking and Its Relationship with Teaching and Learning This section entails diagrams which can help you: 1. make connections between the critical thinking

When Betting Odds and Credences Come Apart: More Worries for Dutch Book Arguments Darren BRADLEY and Hannes LEITGEB If an agent believes that the probability of E being true is 1/2, should she accept a

Introduction to time series analysis Margherita Gerolimetto November 3, 2010 1 What is a time series? A time series is a collection of observations ordered following a parameter that for us is time. Examples

LONDON SCHOOL OF COMMERCE Programme Specifications for the Cardiff Metropolitan University MSc in International Hospitality Management 1 Contents Programme Aims and Objectives 3 Programme Learning Outcomes

Demonstrating Understanding Rubrics and Scoring Guides Project-based learning demands a more progressive means of assessment where students can view learning as a process and use problem-solving strategies

Business School DBA The Professional Doctorate in Business Administration Studied part-time, our DBA is the natural choice for experienced managers who wish to engage in the creation and interpretation

How does the problem of relativity relate to Thomas Kuhn s concept of paradigm? Eli Bjørhusdal After having published The Structure of Scientific Revolutions in 1962, Kuhn was much criticised for the use

Scott J. Simon / p. 1 Network Theory: 80/20 Rule and Small Worlds Theory Introduction Starting with isolated research in the early twentieth century, and following with significant gaps in research progress,

Dispute Resolution Insights Best Practices Article Measuring Lost Profits Economic Damages on a Pretax Basis Robert P. Schweihs. The judicial remedy for many commercial disputes is an award of economic

INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIOS Arden Brummell and Greg MacGillivray Scenarios to Strategy Inc. Few companies today would say they are happy with the way they plan for an increasingly fluid and turbulent business

1 Doctor of Education - Higher Education The University of Liverpool s Doctor of Education - Higher Education (EdD) is a professional doctoral programme focused on the latest practice, research, and leadership

COPYRIGHT NOTICE: Richard Raatzsch: The Apologetics of Evil is published by Princeton University Press and copyrighted, 2009, by Princeton University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may

Behavior and Philosophy, 31, 145-150 (2003). 2003 Cambridge Center for Behavioral Studies FOR THE RADICAL BEHAVIORIST BIOLOGICAL EVENTS ARE NOT BIOLOGICAL AND PUBLIC EVENTS ARE NOT PUBLIC Dermot Barnes-Holmes

BUSINESS MANAGEMENT Overview An extended essay in business management provides students with an opportunity to carry out in-depth research in an area of personal interest relating to business management.

DFE-RB087 ISBN 978-1-84775-862-0 February 2011 Specialist drug and alcohol services for young people a cost benefit analysis Frontier Economics This report looks at the costs and benefits associated with

Teaching Public Relations Published by the Public Relations Division of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication. Edited by Professor Todd Hunt, Rutgers University No. 33, November

Page 1 PHILOSOPHY General Major I. Depth and Breadth of Knowledge. A. Will be able to recall what a worldview is and recognize that we all possess one. B. Should recognize that philosophy is most broadly