SAG Preview, Predictions, and Contest!

On Wednesday, the Screen Actors Guild will be the first major guild to ring in. They are industry but since they merged with AFTRA they have a different sort of point of view than the rest of the industry, at least when it comes to their ensemble nominations. Their acting nominations tend to mostly match what we might normally expect, give or take one or two. Since they’re AFTRA, along with with SAG, they have a more “populist” flavor than if it was just actors voting. AFTRA includes, radio DJs, television journalists, etc.

Before they merged with AFTRA, their ensemble nominations were a pretty good indicator of what the actors thought about Best Picture, which is probably why that nomination was so crucial, up until last year when The Shape of Water shattered the stat. Now, it isn’t thought to be as essential, to have that nomination, so if one favorite doesn’t turn up there, that doesn’t really mean it can’t or won’t win Best Picture.

There have been some great ensembles this year. So many, in fact, that predicting this category is going to be difficult. In general, the ensemble prize often goes to films that have a lot of actors in them, the higher profile, the better. But that is not a hard and fast rule. They don’t have to be well known to land a nod if the movie is hot — like Slumdog Millionaire.

The films we suspect will do well for ensemble include:

The Favourite – locked, will probably winBlack Panther – seems to be lockedA Star is Born – seemingly locked but is it just the two leads and Sam Elliot? Vice – bravura performances across the boardCrazy Rich Asians – It seems like a popular ensemble – is it “serious” enough?Widows – the kind of ensemble Best Ensemble is made for. Robert Duvall, Liam Neeson, Viola Davis. Was it seen and liked enough to get in? If Beale Street Could Talk – also seems locked, but only five slots?Green Book – if they really love it they might overlook that it’s only three names for ensemble.Roma – could go either wayBlackKklansman – another film that seems made for this nomination.

The long shots, by Gold Derby’s standards, would include:Mary Poppins ReturnsBallad of Buster ScruggsFirst ManBohemian Rhapsody

Five slots, completely at the hands of the 2,000 randomly selected nominating committee.