Dec 2, 2012

Asia- Beijing Ratchets up the South China Sea Pressure

Revelations that Beijing intends to stop and board maritime vessels
entering its territory in the disputed South China Sea were predictably poorly
received by fellow claimant states.

Chinese state media recently
announced new regulations that would see Hainan maritime police boarding
vessels that have illegally entered its “territory” in the South China Sea,
opening yet another chapter in the long-running maritime and territorial
dispute. The orders, to be enacted on Jan. 1, were quickly denounced from
claimant states involved in the dispute, who view this as effort by China to
restrict regional freedom of navigation.

The new regulations follow after
Beijing’s move to issue new passports containing a revised map of Chinese
territories, which include disputed islands in South China Sea, its border
regions with India, and Taiwan. This ongoing passport episode has so far seen
India countering by issuing new visas with a revised map of its own.

In declaring its intent to board
vessels that have entered its “territory,” China has only escalated tensions in
the region, setting back any hopes for a permanent and peaceful resolution.
Under the new regulations, Chinese police would turn away straying vessels, but
will also the right to board and seize the ship.

Picking battles in the South China Sea

Undoubtedly China is flexing its
military muscle, but to what end? China has made public its opposition to US
“intrusion” in the South China Sea disputes, therefore these new regulations
are all the more puzzling given that they are guaranteed to attract American
attention.

Although the US has elected not
to wade deep into the South China Sea disputes, hoping instead for a
multilateral resolution, it has continued to uphold the importance of freedom
of navigation in the region. Critics, however, were quick to raise red flags
and claim the new regulations from China would jeopardize said freedom.

There is little doubt that
Beijing was expecting a response, but it is a dangerous path upon which they
have set off. In the past, Chinese maritime police have stopped and detained
fishing crews, most often from Vietnam; however, such arrests were more random
and less of a rule. Moreover, the fishermen were typically freed quickly
afterwards. For these seizures to now be a rule and to take place in contested
waters could spark violent confrontation.

It is one thing to board an
unarmed fishing vessel and detain its crew; however, it is quite another to
board a vessel intent on resisting or, for that matter, a military vessel. What
is the protocol if the Chinese police were to come across, say, an armed
Filipino escort ship? Would the Chinese risk stopping and detaining Filipino
servicemen? Of equal importance, how would the United States, with whom the
Philippines holds a Mutual Defense Treaty, react?

Someone somewhere in Beijing has
already asked these questions, and someone somewhere in Beijing has already
concluded that the benefits outweigh the risks. However, as these regulations
will not be implemented until Jan. 1, the question is where will Beijing draw
the line, and how will other countries react?

It is almost certain the Hainan
maritime police will not stop and board a US Navy vessel; but for smaller
countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, whose maritime assets are not as
capable, to stop and board such vessels may be a risk China is willing to take.

Neither the US nor China has any
desire to confront one another militarily, for both countries at present are
too economically interdependent. On the other hand, China may believe that it
is no sweat off their backs should they come into conflict with a country such
as Vietnam, which does not have a treaty with the US.

The new regulations will have
little impact on American forces in the area, but to neighboring states lacking
in military support, it is a grave concern. The US Navy cannot escort every
civilian ship traveling through the South China Sea, therefore leaving the
majority of vessels to their own devices. Countries like Japan, Singapore,
South Korea, and Russia may travel the sea lanes unimpeded; however, for the
rest, they may find themselves forced to submit to these new rules.

A stabilizing presence

The Philippines and Vietnam, as
well as other claimant countries, hope that United States’ pivot to
Asia-Pacific will balance against an increasingly assertive China.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the US will maintain a permanent presence.

Short of increasing the size of
its navy, which, at the moment seems unlikely, every US Navy warship in the
Western Pacific is a loss of a warship elsewhere in the world. Although the
pivot has been described by Washington, DC, as a strategic rebalance, it cannot
be ignored that the US possesses global commitments.

Knowing this, the US has made
efforts to establish and/or re-affirm security partnerships with countries in
the region, so that the US is not stretched beyond its means. Countries like
Vietnam will have to pick up the slack and cannot expect the US to fight its
battles for them. The pivot to Asia-Pacific is a “temporary solution” to
China’s rise, designed to address the needs of the US and not necessarily the
needs of regional countries.

On Dec.12, representatives from
Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines - all of whom are claimant
states - will meet in Manila to discuss South China Sea disputes and the role
of China. In the course of their meeting, they should begin seeking a new,
stabilizing presence in the South China Sea.

Such a stabilizing presence
should not be understood as a complete and total replacement of the United
States, but rather a force that can augment an American presence and balance
against China. To this end, Indonesia would be well-suited to such a role.

Among Southeast Asian nations,
Indonesia is by far the most populous and is in possession of the largest
economy. It is among one of the founding nations of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Although it
is not a claimant state in the South China Sea disputes, that it was not
invited to the December 12 meeting is somewhat surprising, given its prominence
in the region.

Indonesia has flirted with taking
a leadership role in the disputes; however, perhaps because they are not yet
ready, have so far remained distant. Should Indonesia decide to throw its hat
into the ring, it would be able to balance China to some degree, with the
support of the other claimant states.

Manila should extend an
invitation to Jakarta soonest possible. After all, what is the harm in having a
fifth opinion? Although the future of the South China Sea disputes is in doubt,
what is not in doubt is that Indonesia will be as much a part of it as any one
of the four claimant states gathering in Manila. At least in the near future,
claimant states will find strength in numbers, and they may also find strength
in working as a bloc.

China does not have to control
the South China Sea to enforce its rules. Rather, it need only have the
appearance of controlling the sea; and to give such an impression, it will
simply board a ship every now and then. Alone, the claimant states are easy
pickings. Together, however, they may balance against China.

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