1. Bush and Sproles are really close. With Sean Peyton back after his suspension, I look for Sproles to be used more in the offense.2. Gonzalez - Witten - Gronk(if healthy) - Davis - Rudolph3. Not really a super sleeper, but Robert Woods in Buffalo might be interesting...4. If you can't get one of the big 3...I'd aim for Andrew Luck.5. Charles - Rice - Richardson - Spiller - McCoy6. Selling. I'll buy Jacquizz Rodgers7. No.

1. Do I have to take one? I'd rather draft another position and see who is left2. Always Witten if he's available. You can always hope Davis has a healthy season with no legal issues, I always like Jared Cook3. The RB Dallas drafted is probably a good risk as a sleeper4. If one of the top few doesn't slip, i'm not targetting anyone, i'm just taking whats left5. Rice, Charles, Richardson, McCoy, Spiller6. Selling Jackson anywhere7. lol.

Kraftster, was it you that was Steven Jackson's steadfast defender last year, or am I thinking of someone else? I remember there was one person on the board that talked up SJax constantly, maybe it was LITT??

Doesn't there have to be a way to "moneyball" fantasy football...? It's all stats and I'm in a salary capped league. Shouldn't there be a way for me to win or succeed mathematically, instead of trying to guess on talent (boy, this sounds like the exact opposite of me...)...

Has anyone ever thought about that (sorry, don't mean to try to hijack the thread)?

No, I really don't think so. Baseball roto is the closest you can come to being able to do this (if you were going to consider it in other sports, it would have to be rotisserie style league). I use a spreadsheet for baseball and definitely should have won my league this year based upon my numbers. Turns out, you can never avoid guessing on talent and health (Hamilton and Granderson a combined 15 HR through the first half+).

shafnutz05 wrote:Kraftster, was it you that was Steven Jackson's steadfast defender last year, or am I thinking of someone else? I remember there was one person on the board that talked up SJax constantly, maybe it was LITT??

Kraftster wrote:No, I really don't think so. Baseball roto is the closest you can come to being able to do this (if you were going to consider it in other sports, it would have to be rotisserie style league). I use a spreadsheet for baseball and definitely should have won my league this year based upon my numbers. Turns out, you can never avoid guessing on talent and health (Hamilton and Granderson a combined 15 HR through the first half+).

You're probably right, but just for poops and chuckles...

Regardless of whether or not it's baseball or football or basketball (too much fluidity in hockey, in my opinion, but maybe that's because I over-think it) and regardless of whether it's H2H or rotisserie...don't you need X amount of yards, X amount of TDs, X amount of this or that per dollar to be successful...?

I feel there's got to be a way to use similar principles, even in rudimentary fashion, to make something successful...but yet again, I guess it's really no different than predicting the talent/health/breakout-ability that I/we already do...I'll play around with some numbers soon and just take a look at it...it'll give me something to do at work this week...

Well, baseball works the best because there are by far the most statistics to work with in projecting numbers. In fact, you don't even need to make your own projections in baseball. You can go look at Streamer projections or ZiPS projections and just plug those numbers in. Those numbers are very much different from "expert projections" in football, hockey, or basketball. They are based upon significant sample sizes and a much more repetitive process (batter facing pitches/pitcher facing batters). Sure, circumstances change somewhat in a given at bat or from year to year with the protection one has in a lineup, but it is way, way easier to predict (accurately).

Rotisserie vs. head-to-head is also important. Take the LGP Fantasy Baseball league. I now have three prior seasons of standings that I can look at. If it took 250 HR to finish first in HR in one season, 242 in another, and 255 in another, I can pretty definitively declare that if I have a lineup that can hit 250 HR, I should be able to count on 11 or 12 points in that category. It doesn't matter to me if I get 100/250 HRs in the first month of the season or evenly throughout. I know I need to have a lineup that can combine for 250 HRs when all is said and done. With head-to-head, you cannot predict what you need in a given week because it depends upon what your opponent does. The best that you can do (in my experience) is calculate the average weekly score for each team in your league from the prior season and work with that. Don't even bother trying with head-to-head categories (vs. points). That is just far too much data to assimilate into anything usable.

I am also in a fantasy football league with a salary cap (auction style). Despite what I said above, I still do exactly what you are discussing before entering the auction draft. I look at the average weekly scores from the year prior and loosely determine what per week score I need to get. Lets say that I want 100 points per week from my team. If I play 16 weeks in a season, that means I need a team with 1600 points on the year. If I have $100 to spend in order to get 1600 points, that means that I need to get 16 points/$1 I spend. That is your big number that you can work with.

If Aaron Rodgers produced 160 points last year, I can spend up to $10 on him. Any more than that and I am overpaying, any less and I am getting a steal (allowing me to overpay on someone else later in the draft). I create a spreadsheet which assigns a FMV price for each player based upon last year's stats. This is a very useful guide for heading into your auction draft.

Still, there are several flaws. 1. You are counting on last year's stats. Again, this is very tough to do in football and hockey.2. You are counting on last year's stats. 3. You are looking at total production, which ignores week-to-week consistency, which is critical in head-to-head.4. Your model is premised upon total production and you could go out and put up 1800 points and miss the playoffs if the weeks/matchups fall the wrong way.

Still, its useful. If Matt Stafford is an $8 player based upon last year's numbers and he is due for a massive progression in TD (and therefore points), I need to be aware of that to know that I should be willing to maybe spend a bit more on him. In other words, the spreadsheet doesn't replace your research on how this year will differ from last year for all the players. In baseball, you could theoretically never watch games or the players that you are choosing and pick a team based purely on stats and projections and have a shot at winning.

Thanks for the quality response, Kraftster. I have read and agreed to the terms. I'm going to fox around with the numbers in the same way that you do and just see how bad of a job I've done in the past and see what I can do to correct it in the future...if I can salvage my team at all...

Is there a clear cut guy, or small group that would be a no brainer with the #1 pick (which I have) AD?? I know what he did last year but is he 100% healthy? I've never had so much as a top 5 pick in any league so I'm sure I'm in the brink of over thinking the whole thing.

1. Wilson, the other 2 will be PPR monsters though2. None. It's graham then everyone else.3. Is Tavon Austin really a sleeper? Percy Harvin with better physical skills, lots of yards after the catch4. Yes waiting, looking at Kaepernick, Wilson, RG3, or Luck5. This is based on them staying healthy. Spiller, Rice, Charles, Richardson, McCoy6. Sell, he'll probably finish just outside top 10 RBs he's not gonna be great though IMO7. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

DudeMan2766 wrote:Is there a clear cut guy, or small group that would be a no brainer with the #1 pick (which I have) AD?? I know what he did last year but is he 100% healthy? I've never had so much as a top 5 pick in any league so I'm sure I'm in the brink of over thinking the whole thing.

opie22002 wrote:I'm starting to think ahead to the FF season. I was hoping to get some conversation going.

So here are a few random questions that I'd love to get opinions on.

1. In a standard league, who would you most like to draft at RB of the following: R. Bush, D. Wilson, D. Sproles

2. Besides Graham, which TE is worth targeting this year?

3. Who is your super sleeper?

4. With the depth at QB, are you waiting to draft one? If so, who would you target?

5. Rank the following first round talent in order of who will have the best season: Charles, McCoy, Rice, Spiller, Richardson.

6. Buying or selling Steven Jackson in Atlanta?

7. Will McFadden finally stay healthy?

1. Wilson2. Gronk is still my #2. Obvious high risks / high rewards3. Not sure for regular, for my dynasty league startup this year I'm pretty big on Tannehill 4. Waiting. Can get a Stafford, Ryan, etc in late rounds.. really doesn't matter5. Rice, Charles, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy6. Buying, he's been a good real-life back in Stl.. just no td's. That'll change in Atl7. lol