Tim Weisberg — At Gillette Stadium: Things are breaking the Patriots' way

Monday

Jan 14, 2013 at 12:01 AMJan 14, 2013 at 12:37 AM

FOXBORO — The New England Patriots are headed to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year, an astounding feat when you consider where this team was just a few months ago.

TIM WEISBERG

FOXBORO — The New England Patriots are headed to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year, an astounding feat when you consider where this team was just a few months ago.

They weren't the Houston Texans, going 11-1. They weren't the Denver Broncos, winners of 11 straight.

No, instead they were just the New England Patriots, doing what they always do — slowly building over the course of the regular season to play their best football when it matters most. That's why they're still playing, while the Texans and Broncos will be watching from home.

Despite what you might want to say about the officiating on Sunday, many things certainly have been breaking the Patriots' way over the past few weeks: Houston coughing up the No. 1 seed and the Pats astoundingly getting a first-round bye was the first lucky break; Baltimore doing the (nearly) unthinkable and upsetting the Broncos was another. Now the Patriots find themselves hosting the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium, with all the benefits that come with it, against a very familiar foe in the Baltimore Ravens.

"I think the two best teams are in the finals," quarterback Tom Brady said. "Baltimore certainly deserves to be here and so do we, so it's very fitting."

A collective cheer went throughout the region when the Ravens won on Saturday, because it was believed they were less of an obstruction in the path to the Super Bowl than the Broncos, who behind quarterback Peyton Manning were the AFC's hottest team heading into the playoffs. But this might be a case of "be careful what you wish for," because the Pats haven't had such an easy time against the Ravens in recent memory.

The Patriots just barely survived Baltimore in the AFC title game last season, as Brady threw two picks but also scored the game-winning touchdown on a 1-yard run in the fourth quarter. But Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff also missed a 32-yard field goal in the game's final seconds to help the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl. Baltimore's current kicker, Justin Tucker, already put the Pats away in Week 3 with a 27-yard field goal that many New Englanders still feel he missed (although there was no question about his game-winner on Saturday that advanced the Ravens to the conference title game).

Luck may have been a lady to the Patriots in the latter stages of this season, but she can also be a cruel mistress.

Case in point: after getting all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski back for the postseason, the Patriots now have to go forward without him. Numerous media outlets were reporting Sunday night that Gronkowski re-injured the left forearm that he broke in Week 11, when trying to catch a pass along the sideline in the first quarter against the Texans. Gronkowski came down on the left arm, which was still in a protective cast. He was obviously in pain and immediately left the field. Running back Danny Woodhead left the game after the first play with a thumb injury, and rookie defensive end Chandler Jones left in the second quarter with an ankle injury. Both Woodhead and Jones were spotted on the sidelines in the second half, and the latter seemed to be moving with little problem.

But Gronkowski's absence will have a big impact going forward. Even though the Patriots were able to have success without him during the regular season, they'll certainly miss him against a reinvigorated Ravens defense that has rallied around linebacker Ray Lewis' impending retirement. And Brady will need all of his weapons if he gets into a shootout with the suddenly-hot Joe Flacco, who torched the Broncos for 331 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday.

The Patriots also certainly have a lot to clean up after Sunday's win. Special teams was a disaster, as the Pats allowed Houston to have terrific field position on multiple drives; Danieal Manning ripped off a 94-yard return on the opening kickoff and averaged 54.0 yards on his four returns. Luckily the Pats were able to hold the Texans to a field goal on that first drive, but they weren't so lucky on his 69-yard return in the fourth quarter that led to a Texans touchdown that cut New England's lead to 38-20 with plenty of time left on the clock.

"If we keep playing like that we're not going to get very far, we're not going to be playing a lot more football," special teams captain Matthew Slater said. "We can't give the opposing team field position like that."

Also, a problem from earlier in the season reared its head once again, as the Patriots were unable to put the game away in the fourth. A 25-point lead dwindled to just 10, as New England failed to eat up large chunks of the clock and keep the Texans offense off the field.

In fact, as much as the Patriots were able to build the lead a few times, they never did quite look as dominant as the scoreboard might have suggested. They led 17-3 late in the second quarter and were up 38-13 after their first drive of the third, as Shane Vereen caught a 33-yard pass for his franchise record-tying third touchdown of the game. At that point, it appeared as if it would be another rout similar to the beatdown the Pats handed the Texans on "Monday Night Football" back on Dec. 10. But Houston had other ideas, and Matt Schaub threw two touchdowns and converted a two-point toss to Andre Johnson to cut New England's lead to 38-28 with just over five minutes to play.

The Patriots still allowed Arian Foster to run for 90 yards (and 4.1 yards per carry) and Schaub threw for 343 yards and two scores, with Johnson catching eight balls for 95 yards and Owen Daniels making nine grabs for 81 yards. It was another "bend but don't break" game, and some timely turnovers and excellent defense from cornerback Aqib Talib, who stayed on Johnson throughout the game, allowed the Patriots to hold the Texans at bay.

The lack of a "killer instinct" and allowing the Texans to fight their way back into the game, though, are the most concerning. In the playoffs, a 25-point lead is nearly unheard of; when a team gets one, they have to turn out the lights on the opposition. Especially when it's a team, like Houston, that showed yet again that they're not ready to play with the big boys.

And as we learned from the Broncos' exit from the postseason and the Falcons' near-exit, no lead is safe in the playoffs.

To this point, things have played out in an improbable, nearly impossible dream scenario for the Patriots. Everything has gone their way. Now it's time to take advantage of it, because the Super Bowl — one without the New York Giants, by the way — is amazingly within their grasp.

Tim Weisberg covers the New England Patriots for The Standard-Times. Contact him at timweisberg@hotmail.com