Hurricanes and hot air

Switching between US CBC CNN and CPAC tonight we had hurricane tracking juxtaposed with poll tracking. On CPAC a panel of “experts” speaking for each of the Federal parties commented on the latest Nik Nanos poll numbers which show the Tories with a slight lead. On CNN they were tracking hurricane Ike bearing down the Gulf coast states. One wouldn’t think there would be too much connection- except the excess of wind- but the commentary crossed when the Green panelist on CPAC blamed Ike and ” an increase in hurricanes” on global warming and ergo – put the blame on us! At a time when the devastation of Ike is on our minds this theory delivered as fact has more influence than it otherwise might.

You would think that a Green party representative would really read up on this subject and get the latest data on this proposition.

The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.

The research, appearing in the March issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more remarkable coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an ardent proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes.

His changing views could influence other scientists.

“The results surprised me,” Emanuel said of his work, adding that global warming may still play a role in raising the intensity of hurricanes. What that role is, however, remains far from certain. [link to source]

There is no consistent evidence that warming influences hurricane creation or strength and yet this “link” is repeated ad nauseum to shore up questionable political policies.

Mentioned on CNN was the catastrophic hurricane which demolished Galveston in Sept of 1900 which killed 8,000 people and demolished the city. The forecasting of hurricanes was in its infancy then so there weren’t the advance warnings we have today. One of the pioneers of hurricane tracking is William Gray. Would you like to know what he thinks of Elizabeth May’s and Al Gore’s and Stephane Dion’s theory of manmade Global warming?

Gray, an emeritus professor at CSU who has taught dozens of graduate students who populate the National Hurricane Center and other research institutions, has become increasingly vocal in saying the planet is warming due to natural causes.

As a reward for this stance he is being censored [ Elizabeth May should sympathise with that!]

By pioneering the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting, William Gray turned a university far from the stormy seas into a hurricane research mecca.

But last year, the long-term relationship between Gray and Colorado State University, where he has worked for nearly half a century, nearly unraveled in an episode that highlights the politically charged atmosphere that surrounds the global warming debate.

University officials told Gray that handling media inquiries related to his forecasting required too much time and detracted from efforts to promote other professors’ work.

Gray, who has emerged as a leading voice of skepticism about global warming, reacted hotly, firing off a memo to Dick Johnson, head of CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and others. He didn’t buy the too-much-media reasoning.

“This is obviously a flimsy excuse and seems to me to be a cover for the Department’s capitulation to the desires of some (in their own interest) who want to reign (sic) in my global warming and global warming-hurricane criticisms,” Gray wrote

Nice eh? But these people aren’t nice and they don’t really care about truth or even honest debate. They play hard ball.

A professor of public relations at Boston University, Donald Wright, questioned why the university would want to pull back its support for Gray after he has published his forecasts for a quarter-century.

The predictions are printed in newspapers around the U.S. and on the World Wide Web.

“Given the national reputation that these reports have, you would think the university would want to continue to promote these forecasts,” Wright said. …

There also seems to be little question that prominent climate scientists have complained to CSU about Gray, who has become more involved in the global warming debate. His comments toward adversaries often have been biting.

In 2005, when Georgia Tech scientist Peter Webster co-authored a paper suggesting global warming had caused a spike in major hurricanes, for instance, Gray labeled him and others “medicine men” who were misleading the public. {link to source]

Perhaps someone should ask Elizabeth May about this in the upcoming debate. Unfortunately instead of listening to people like William Gray we have to listen to people in the Green and Liberal parties. We hope the Conservatives don’t fall for this guff but they haven’t been showing a whole lot of intelligence either. But everyone has their reasons for kowtowing to the newest God; even the power and oil companies like it- great justification for higher prices.