The selection committee is minutes away from revealing this year’s NCAA tournament bracket, and here’s the big question this Selection Sunday: Who are the four No. 1 seeds?

You don’t need to be a bracketologist to know three of them. Florida, the newly crowned Southeastern Conference tournament champion, almost certainly will be the No. 1 overall seed. The Gators are 32-2, have been ranked No. 1 in human polls for weeks and haven’t lost since the first week of December. Wichita State, another likely No. 1 seed, hasn’t lost since last season’s Final Four and is the first team to enter the NCAA tournament undefeated since 1991. After its 30-4 regular season, Arizona figures to be the No. 1 seed in the West region, and the Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in kenpom.com’s advanced statistics.

As for the fourth top seed, likely in the East region with Madison Square Garden hosting, it seems to be a toss-up between Michigan and Virginia. Michigan might have made a stronger case by winning the Big Ten Conference tournament today, but the Wolverines ran into a rolling Michigan State team in a loss that might have cost them that top seed. Instead, it might go to Virginia, the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season and tournament champion, which may have locked it up by beating Duke on Sunday.

We’re about to find out. The selection show begins at 6 p.m., and we’ll be breaking down the matchups as they’re unveiled.

No. 1 seed overall is Florida, and they’re sticking in the South region. No surprises there. Gators won’t have to cross the Mason-Dixon line to get to North Texas: They open in Orlando and then would move to Memphis for the regional.

VCU in the 5-12 game – but not as the 12. Shaka Smart’s team will be a trendy pick to get upset by Stephen F. Austin, a 31-2 team from the Southland Conference that hasn’t lost since before Thanksgiving. Lumberjacks have won 28 in a row.

Best game in this region is probably VCU vs. Stephen F. Austin. VCU leads the country in forcing turnovers. Stephen F. Austin ranks third in the country in forcing turnovers. Where they differ is how fast they like to play. VCU pushes the tempo – while the Lumberjacks like to grind it out. If Stephen F. Austin pulls off the upset, it’ll be because of how well they rebound: VCU is vulnerable on the glass, and Stephen F. Austin makes opponents pay for not boxing out.

This is insane to say but: Could the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky give Kansas a game? Kansas looks vulnerable down low without the 7-foot rim protector Joel Embiid, who likely won’t play this weekend. Eastern Kentucky might not grab an offensive rebound – only five teams in the entire country are worse – but it’s among the five best nationally in effective field-goal percentage. Not only do the Colonels shoot a ton of threes, but they also shoot 56.2% from inside the arc. If they get hot, and Kansas can’t counter with Embiid on defense, this could be far more interesting than anyone would expect.

Arizona’s reward for a 30-4 season: A potential second-round matchup against No. 9 Oklahoma State and the amazing guard Marcus Smart. Sean Miller just sent the selection committee a bouquet of dead roses.

Wisconsin gets the No. 2 seed in the West. Its reward is an American team that likes to play just as slow as the Badgers. A game with few possessions increases the chances of an upset – and Wisconsin is prone to NCAA tournament upsets.

Doug McDermott, college basketball’s national player of the year and the sport’s best scorer in years, should make it to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Creighton gets a No. 3 seed – and No. 6 Baylor is a lousy defensive team that’s especially bad at defending three-pointers. Creighton’s the best three-point-shooting team in the country.

Of course, that’s assuming Baylor gets by Nebraska. If not, we have an in-state matchup: Creighton vs. Nebraska with a Sweet 16 spot on the line. Someone get Warren Buffett a plane ticket to San Antonio. He prefers flying economy but wouldn’t mind an upgrade to economy plus.

The takeaway from the West region: Creighton has a real shot at the Elite Eight. There isn’t an elite defensive team on the bottom half of its region. And if it faces Arizona’s top-ranked defense in the regional final, anything can happen in one game, especially for a team that shoots the way Creighton does.

Louisville, a team that Rick Pitino was lobbying for a No. 1 seed, gets a No. 4 seed against Manhattan, coached by Pitino’s former assistant Steve Masiello. Selection committee not exactly rewarding the defending national champion.

Duke gets the No. 3 seed and is staying at home in Raleigh. But the Blue Devils have to beat Mercer, which won the Atlantic Sun, the conference that produced Florida Gulf Coast this season. Of course, no one on the planet wants to see Mercer beat Duke, right?

Midwest region has Wichita State, Michigan, Duke and Louisville – four teams in the discussion for a No. 1 seed as of 24 hours ago. As if Gregg Marshall needed another reason for the Shockers to play angry.

To put that in perspective, Midwest region has three of Ken Pomeroy’s top seven teams in Louisville, Wichita State and Duke. Michigan, the No. 2 seed, is 14th by Pomeroy’s metrics. South region, by contrast, has only one of Pomeroy’s top eight teams.

A little old-school Big East flair looming in the 2-7 game here: UConn could get Villanova in the second round. If the Huskies go down, though, it’s an all-Philly matchup between Villanova and St. Joseph’s. Move the game to the Palestra and get Pat and Geno to cater.

SPORTS, THE JOURNAL WAY

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