The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movment in Iran from being reported.

From jamming satellite broadcasts, to prohibiting news reporters from covering any demonstrations to shutting down all cell phones and even hiring foreign security to control the population, the regime is doing everything in its power to keep the popular movement from expressing its demand for an end of the regime.

These efforts by the regime, while successful in the short term, do not resolve the fundamental reasons why this regime is crumbling from within.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to join us here, post your news stories and comments to this thread.

TEHRAN: Iran has launched a trial run at a uranium enrichment factory at the centre of Western concerns over its nuclear programme, the countrys representative to the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA said on Monday.

The factory at Natanz launched a test run several weeks ago, Ali Akbar Salehi said in an interview published by Kayhan newspaper, adding the facility had 164 centrifuges. The international community has voiced concerns that Iran could be producing weapons grade uranium for use in a nuclear arms programme.

The director general of the UN Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammed ElBaradei, visited the factory in February and inspectors later detected traces of highly-enriched uranium at Natanz. Iran has said the traces were the result of contamination from second-hand equipment imported into the country. The results of the last inspections confirmed the information supplied by Iran, Salehi said. It is clear that such highly-enriched uranium was not produced in Iran because it would need a large number of centrifuges being used over a long period of time, he said.

Iran yesterday defiantly showed off six of its new ballistic missiles daubed with anti-US and anti-Israel slogans in a move sure to reinforce international concern over the nature of its nuclear programme. At the climax of a military parade marking the outbreak of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, the enormous Shehab-3 missiles were rolled out painted with the messages, "We will crush America under our feet" and "Israel must be wiped off the map."

The Shehab-3, which means "meteor" in Farsi, underwent final tests earlier this year and has a range of about 810 miles, putting Israel and US bases in the Gulf within striking distance. It is based on the North Korean No-Dong and Pakistani Ghauri-11 medium-range missiles.

Israel suspects Iran's theocratic leadership may be planning to arm the weapons eventually with nuclear warheads. Yesterday's show of military prowess will do nothing to dispel US and European suspicions that Iran has ambitions to build an atomic bomb.

The parade marked the largest number of Shehab-3 missiles put on public display since the weapons were officially handed over to the hardline revolutionary guard for operation in July.

An announcer called the Shehab-3 a great achievement for the Islamic republic, shouting "God is Great" as trucks towed the weapons past a review stand of military officers and dignitaries. The announcer also said the missiles had an even longer range than previously believed but a defence ministry spokesman later said that it had been a mistake.

The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency has imposed a strict deadline, saying Iran must prove it has no nuclear weapons programme by October 31. The IAEA's governing board has also demanded that Iran suspend uranium enrichment activity and open its doors to unfettered inspections. If Tehran fails to comply, the UN security council could decide to impose sanctions.

President Mohammad Khatami, who watched the parade, said in a speech that Iran faced threats from outside enemies but would not seek to obtain nuclear weapons.

"We are opposed to the spread of weapons of mass destruction and the very existence of atomic weapons," he said.

Mr Khatami's reformist allies in parliament have urged the clerical leadership to agree to snap inspections by the IAEA to defuse mounting international pressure. But conservative figures have called for expelling UN inspectors and withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Iran has denied it has a weapons project and says its nuclear programme is designed to meet growing domestic demand for electricity.

In his speech, Mr Khatami said Iran would insist on its right to scientific development. "We will not renounce our right to become stronger in the domains of science and technology," he said.

The president, who referred to Israel as the "Zionist regime", also accused outside governments of hypocrisy by tolerating Israel's "considerable atomic arsenal".

"Even if we don't give a pretext to the enemy, they will find one," Mr Khatami added.

The parade opened Sacred Defence Week, which commemorates the bloody eight-year war with the former Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. The conflict claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and no territory changed hands.

The televised event was held south of the capital Tehran, beside the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the uncompromising founder of Iran's theocracy.

Columns of soldiers in the revolutionary guard, regular army, air force and navy goose-stepped to the sound of martial music, followed by rows of armoured vehicles and tanks.

Ankara, Sept 23 - Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to pay an official visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the near future, Iran's Ambassador to Ankara Firouz Dolatabadi revealed on Monday.

He said the visit will take place following the visit by a Turkish political-security delegation to Tehran.

Dolatabadi rejected recent allegations in the Turkish media about the postponement of the visit by the Turkish Premier to Iran.

It is expected that the Turkish Prime Minister's visit will take place in the second half of October.

President Mohammad Khatami is also expected to pay an official visit to Turkey in December-January, he concluded.

Iran remains willing to negotiate on the U.N. nuclear agency's demand for unfettered access for its inspectors but will scale back its cooperation with the watchdog in the meantime, Iran's representative to the agency said Tuesday.

Ali Akbar Salehi had announced on Monday that Iran would cut back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in response to the agency's Oct. 31 deadline for Tehran to prove its atomic programs are peaceful. Tehran charged the move was politically motivated.

Diplomats had said the Iranian decision did not bode well for efforts to resolve the nuclear dispute, but Salehi on Tuesday said his comments were being misinterpreted by the diplomats.

"It doesn't mean that we are rejecting the additional protocol or are not prepared to talk on that," Salehi said. The additional protocol would provide IAEA inspectors with unrestricted access of any site they wished to visit in Iran.

Salehi seems to be saying that Iran's latest position is to confine its co-operation with the IAEA to the letter of existing agreements - under which environment sampling at the Kalay-e-Electric Co. in west Tehran is not mandatory - while at the same time negotiating its acceptance of the additional protocol.

The United States has accused Iran of running a clandestine nuclear weapons program and wants the IAEA to declare Tehran in violation of the treaty. Tehran insists its nuclear programs are designed only to generate electricity.

In Vienna Tuesday, a spokesman for the IAEA, Mark Gwozdecky, said the body had heard "nothing official from the Iranian government."

"We've put everything in place to make it possible for Iran to comply with the board of governors resolution," Gwozdecky said, referring to the deadline. "We hope that Iran will do its part in providing the accelerated cooperation that will be necessary for us to resolve the outstanding questions around the nuclear programs."

In August, Iran allowed inspectors to visit Kalay, a site it deemed non-nuclear, after they were turned away two months before when they came to take environmental samples. Iran allegedly had tested centrifuges, which are used to process uranium, at the site.

Iran has said repeatedly it would agree to unfettered inspections if it is granted access to advanced nuclear technology as provided for under the nonproliferation treaty. Tehran says Washington is keeping Iran from getting that technology.

UN Steps Up Iran Nuclear Probe Ahead of Deadline Tue September 23, 2003 By Louis Charbonneau VIENNA (Reuters) - The United Nations nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday it was stepping up inspections in Iran ahead of an October 31 deadline for Tehran to enable the U.N. to verify it has no secret atomic weapons program.

After strong lobbying by the United States for action, the governing board of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on September 12 set the deadline and called on Tehran to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities.

Washington, which branded Iran a member of an "axis of evil" with North Korea and pre-war Iraq, believes Iran's enrichment plants may be used to purify uranium for use in a nuclear bomb.

Iran denies this allegation and insists its nuclear ambitions are limited to generating electricity.

IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said the agency would send teams of experts to Tehran on Friday for inspections and face-to-face talks with Iranian officials to clear up the IAEA's many outstanding questions about Iran's nuclear program.

"We have a detailed list of requirements covering all of the areas outlined in our reports (on Iran) -- including uranium conversion and uranium enrichment," Fleming said.

The IAEA recently found weapons-grade enriched uranium in Iran and is investigating Tehran's explanation that it came from contaminated machinery purchased abroad.

"October will be a period of very intensive inspections and talks in Iran," she said. "To do this, accelerated cooperation is essential and here the ball is in Iran's court."

Fleming said it was important that Iran gives the IAEA everything it needs to answer the agency's unanswered questions so that the November report to the IAEA board "fully addresses all of the outstanding issues and unanswered questions."

If the IAEA still has unanswered questions about Iran's nuclear program in November, diplomats said Washington and the European Union would push to report Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for violating its IAEA nuclear safeguards obligations.

The Security Council could impose economic sanctions.

Fleming said the agency had received no official word on comments by Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Salehi, who was quoted by Iranian state television as saying Tehran would cut cooperation with the U.N. to the minimum required under its IAEA Safeguards Agreement.

"We've just read about this in the media," she said. "We haven't heard anything that would stop us from moving forward with this important phase of our investigations."

OSLO, Norway - Olav Fjell, chief executive of Statoil ASA, resigned early Tuesday after an emergency board meeting on allegations that Norway's biggest company was involved in a bribery scandal while seeking to expand in Iran.

Fjell was the third executive to leave in a week. Late Sunday, chairman Leif Terje Loeddesoel resigned, citing the controversy over whether the company made improper payments to Iranian-operated Horton Investment Ltd. in a $15 million deal to smooth business development deals in Iran.

In a statement sent after midnight, Statoil's board hoped Fjell's decision would "normalize" the situation in the company."

"We had a discussion and agreed that this was the best solution," Fjell said as he was escorted from Statoil's offices in the capital, Oslo, in the pouring rain by a security guard. Fjell said the decision had been unanimous.

Statoil was holding a briefing with reporters later Tuesday to discuss the situation.

Oekokrim has yet to decide if the contract led to any form of corruption or other improprieties. Statoil has said the company is cooperating fully with the investigation.

Fjell ended the contract with Horton last week and Statoil's head of international exploration and productions, Richard J. Hubbard, resigned at the same time.

Statoil, which was founded by the government in 1972, is seeking to expand internationally as a cushion against the day petroleum exploration and removal declines in Norwegian waters. Norway is the world's third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

However, the company has said it wants to maintain the same high ethical standards abroad as would be expected of it while working at home.

Statoil, founded to oversee the country's oil interests, was partly privatized in 2001 when the state sold 17.5 percent of its shares to investors.

The new Iranian Academic Year started, today, and millions of school and university students commenced a year estimated to be the last year of the Islamic republic rule.

Iran has over 21 millions of students of all ages.

Reports from many academy districts in the Capital and cities, such as Esfahan are stating about the astonishing refusal of especially school students to chant the regime's anthem and instead to chant the banned Iranian National Anthem "Oh, Iran...!"

Seen such as students turning their backs during the official opening ceremonies of several schools have been reported as well as sporadic slogans against the regime and its leaders.

Fresh political graffitis, on many walls and bathrooms, were already noticeable on the first day of classes and hand written and typed tracts calling for solidarity of all students against the regime were seen circulating.

Most first day's discussions were political despite the massive monitoring of the students by members of Herrasat (Intelligence) and Bassij mercenaries deployed in what is supposed to be a place of exchange of thoughts and learning.

SMCCDI has issued, for its part, a statement at the occasion of such day calling on all students and teachers to close ranks and to prepare themselves for responding to their mission of People's Motivation in order to bring the regime down.

John Burns, the great New York Times reporter, offers us a brutally blunt assessment of how badly Western correspondents covered Saddam Hussein's regime. His report, excerpted by The Wall Street Journal and Editor & Publisher, is spreading rapidly on the Internet and is bound to have an impact on the public's already low respect for most journalists.

The compulsively candid Burns, until recently the New York Times bureau chief in Iraq, wrote his comments for the new book "Embedded: The Media at War in Iraq" (The Lyons Press), a collection of first-person accounts by journalists in Iraq.

Burns, who has covered China, the Soviet Union, Afghanistan and Bosnia, says the terror of Saddam Hussein's Iraq was unmatched anywhere in the world, except perhaps by North Korea today. Iraq was a vast slaughterhouse, he says, but most Western reporters worked hard to keep the news from getting out because they were afraid of losing access or getting expelled from Iraq. The monstrous savagery of life under Saddam -- the vast tortures and up to a million dead -- was "the essential truth that was untold by the vast majority of correspondents," he writes.

Burns laid some of this out earlier in the Times -- the bribes and gifts from journalists to Saddam's henchmen, with reporters turning over copies of their stories to show how friendly they were to the regime. "A rigorous system for controlling and monitoring Western journalists has been in place in Iraq for decades, based on a wafer-thin facade of civility," he wrote in the Times last April 20.

In his "Embedded" article, Burns is more caustic about the payoffs by journalists. He says big shots at the information ministry took hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from TV reporters, "who then behaved as if they were in Belgium." Will these unnamed TV reporters be called to account?

As an example of evasive noncoverage, Burns cites the reluctance of most reporters to say anything about Abu Ghraib prison, the heart of Saddam's reign of terror. Burns says he couldn't find a single colleague in journalism who had read the human rights reports about butchery at the prison. Last October, when President Bush's pressure caused Saddam to announce a limited amnesty at Abu Ghraib, the BBC didn't think it was worth sending anyone to the prison. Burns writes: "You had the BBC thinking it was inappropriate to go there because it means that it causes trouble." Of the reporters who did go to the prison, he says, "Ninety-eight percent of them had never heard of Abu Ghraib. Had no idea what it was."

After the amnesty turned into a mob scene and a near-riot and unofficial jail break, some groups marched to the intelligence ministry. Burns says this was a phenomenal story, an actual protest in a terrorized land, but "some of my colleagues chose not to cover that." No use reporting real news if it's going to cause any inconvenience.

"There is corruption in our business," Burns writes. "In the run-up to this war, to my mind, there was a gross abdication of responsibility." The usual rationalization by wayward correspondents is that Saddam's horrors couldn't be reported without jeopardizing the lives of sources and reporters. CNN's chief news executive, Eason Jordan, offered that lame excuse in a notorious New York Times op-ed piece on April 11. It was a devil's handshake: CNN got to stay in Iraq; Saddam Hussein got good press.

Eason said he knew all about the beatings and electroshock torture. One woman who talked to CNN was beaten daily for months in front of her father, then torn limb from limb. Her body parts were left in a bag on her family's doorstep. But CNN's viewers hadn't been told.

Burns has no patience with excuses like Eason's. He is a reporter who was jailed for six days for his reporting in China and who risked being killed by Saddam's regime in its dying days. At one point, he wondered whether he would wind up in Abu Ghraib himself.

He says of Iraq: "We now know that this place was a lot more terrible than even people like me had thought. They (reporters) rationalized it away."

Though President Bush chose to make weapons of mass destruction his principal argument against Saddam, Burns writes, "this war could have been justified any time on the basis of human rights alone. This was a grotesque charnel house, and also a genuine threat to us. We had the power to end it and we did end it."

Even if as many as 5,000 Iraqis died in the war, Burns writes, that's fewer than would have died if Saddam's killing machine had gone on as usual during the six-week period of battle. The war should have been justified on this basis, he says, "but you'd never have known it by reading most of the coverage of the war by those correspondents."

Criticisms like this are often shrugged off as sour outbursts by conservatives who don't understand the press. What happens now that the outburst is coming from the best reporter to serve in Iraq?

September 22, 2003 Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson who recently left Iran to settle in Iraq, is currently visiting the U.S. He is being well received by U.S. officials who would like to see him play a lead role in the future of Iran. (Al-Zaman, Baghdad, 9/22/03)

September 23, 2003 In response to the Saudi ambassador to the U.S..'s statement that Iran is lagging in the war on terror, an Iranian foreign ministry source stated that prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz does not understand Tehran-Riyadh ties and as an ambassador does not have the rank to make such statements. (IRNA, 9/23/03)

September 22, 2003 The oil ministry reported today that Iran nominated Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian, deputy oil minister for international affairs, for the position of OPEC secretary general (MEHR NEWS AGENCY, TEHRAN, 9/22/03)

September 22, 2003 Iran`s military paraded Monday morning near the mausoleum of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Khomeini, to mark the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war. The forces marched before President Mohammad Khatami and foreign delegates in a display that included the Shahab-3 missile. (IRNA, Iran, 9/22/03)

MOSCOW -- Russia must be stern in its relations with Iran. As a Rosbalt correspondent reports, this was announced today by Sergei Rogov, director of the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Russia is saying it is against the proliferation of WMD, he said, but it is ignoring the activity of Iran. 'Iran claims that nuclear power is peaceful but this is not true,' Mr Rogov said. Russia stands to lose a lot more from the development of nuclear power in Iran than it stands to gain, he stressed.

The US may not necessarily resolve the Iran question by force, he went on to say. America may simply use economic sanctions. However, George Bush will not do this until the presidential elections of 2004 are over, he added. 'Iran and North Korea both pose a serious threat so the US will definitely do something. This may cause tension in US-Russian relations,' he warned.

Ambassador Vershbow says Russia should wait until IAEA protocol is signed

U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow said September 19 that Iran is "a critical test case" for the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and hopes that Russia will suspend its cooperation with Tehran's nuclear program until Iran fully cooperates with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Addressing the Second Moscow International Non-proliferation Conference, Vershbow said the United States hopes "Russia will freeze construction at the Bushehr nuclear power plant and refuse to deliver fuel for it until Iran agrees to sign the Additional Protocol and cooperates fully with the IAEA in implementing it."

The ambassador cited several instances of Iran's non-cooperation with the IAEA, which he said were inconsistent "with what one would expect from a state that is fully honoring its NPT obligations."

"It would be a devastating blow to international security and to the non-proliferation regime if Iran were to go nuclear, and the United States seeks to work with all of its partners in non-proliferation to ensure that Iran remains within the NPT," he said.

Following are excerpts from Vershbow's remarks:

(begin excerpt)

There are good reasons to ask whether Iran is moving down the same road [as North Korea]. Iran's policy of deception and delay belies its claims of developing nuclear technology for purely peaceful purposes. In one instance, Iran allowed IAEA inspectors to take samples from a site only after denying them access for months -- sufficient time to clean up the facility in question. Another example involves Iran's changing explanations of its enrichment efforts. Although Iran initially said its enrichment program was entirely indigenous, it changed its story when IAEA inspectors found traces of highly enriched uranium in a centrifuge. At that point Iran claimed that it had purchased the equipment abroad and asserted that it had been contaminated by its original owner. Nothing about Iran's behavior is consistent with what one would expect from a state that is fully honoring its NPT obligations. Without the full compliance of all parties, and without a strict verification regime, there is a growing risk that the international confidence that has underpinned the Treaty could be lost. Unless this is corrected, there is a risk it could lead to regional nuclear arms races and destroy the basis for the peaceful sharing of nuclear technology.

-----

To strengthen the existing [non-proliferation] regime, we need to increase our political commitment to the NPT, the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and deal firmly with countries whose programs today pose serious threats to these treaties. More rigorous requirements, supplemented by more rigorous enforcement, offer the best hope for deterring any other party from seeking to acquire or transfer WMD or related technologies. Our experiences with Iran and North Korea show that we must be constantly mindful that an irresponsible party may use its declared peaceful nuclear program to mask the development of a WMD capability.

Iran is a critical test case for the NPT and the international community's ability to give effective enforcement powers to the IAEA. One week ago, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution giving Iran until October 31 to prove that it does not have a covert nuclear weapons program. Iran's evasiveness in recent months compels us to ask what Iran is hiding. If its nuclear program were entirely peaceful, as Tehran claims, there would be no need to deceive the inspectors or to delay their inspections. It would be a devastating blow to international security and to the non-proliferation regime if Iran were to go nuclear, and the United States seeks to work with all of its partners in non-proliferation to ensure that Iran remains within the NPT.

-----

The United States looks to Russia to help convince the North Koreans that there will be no business as usual in Russian-North Korean relations unless Pyongyang accepts complete, irreversible and verifiable elimination of its nuclear weapons program. We also hope that Russia will freeze construction at the Bushehr nuclear power plant and refuse to deliver fuel for it until Iran agrees to sign the Additional Protocol and cooperates fully with the IAEA in implementing it. The United States is counting on Russia to be a partner in non-proliferation and to use its influence to prevent the nuclearization of North Korea and Iran.

(end excerpt)

(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Iran Negotiate for 21 Sq. Miles with the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces

September 23, 2003 New Vision - Kampala Ricks Kayizzi

The National Enterprise Corporation (NEC), the industrial arm of the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF), has offered 21 square miles of land at Kisozi Ranches to Iranian investors.

The Iranians plan to go into large scale commercial agricultural production, officials have disclosed.

Emmanuel Orinzi, the acting Head of the Africa/Middle East Desk at the foreign affairs ministry, said negotiations between NEC and the Iranians had been going on for about four years now.

"The firms interested in this land are involved in agro-based industry, commercial farming, and would like to use it as a base to enter the lucrative East African market with their products," Orinzi said at Entebbe airport on Sunday. This was soon after receiving part of a delegation of 30 Iranian entrepreneurs and government officials.

The delegation, which is being led by Dr. Muhamed Shariatmadari, the minister of commerce and Plenipotentiary, of the Islamic Republic of Iran, will fly back home on September 26.

They are here to hold talks with senior government officials and members of the private sector aimed at expanding business links.

Although he could not disclose what the Iranians intend to grow on the land, Orinzi said the investors have also got another offer to set up a tractor assembly plant at the Nakasongola industrial complex.

"The buildings are all unoccupied and facilities lying redundant. NEC has expressed its readiness to offer it to them, and is ready to sign an agreement with them after protracted discussions," he said.

Mohsen Khadem Arab Baghi, the managing director of Iran Tractor Manufacturing Company, is here to wrap up the deal.

Sources say the tractor manufacturing firm is likely to be the first beneficiary for the $10m credit line, discussions of which are being held between Bank of Uganda and officials of the Export Developing Bank of Iran.

Thirteen Iranians were killed when the driver of a bus carrying elite troops fell asleep at the wheel and ploughed into a truck, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported on Tuesday.

It was not immediately clear how many of those killed in Monday's crash were members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.

The police chief in the northwestern province of Zanjan said the troops had been heading back to their base after a pilgrimage to the northeastern city of Mashhad, IRNA reported. He said 19 injured people had been rushed to hospital.

Iran has one of the world's highest road accident rates.

IRNA has reported that almost 22,000 people were killed on the Islamic Republic's roads in the year that ended in March.

Iran's newspapers frequently criticise Roads and Transport Minister Ahmad Khorram over the nation's accident-plagued highways that they say are ill-maintained.

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is working on two major commercial deals with Iraq and Iran to import 200,000 tonnes a month of crude and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

IOC chairman, M S Ramachandran, said today the company was to sign a 200,000 tonnes a month crude oil import contract with Iraqs State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) next month, for October-December.

The contract will be renewed next year at a later date, he said.

IOC is also negotiating with National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to import LNG under an integrated commercial deal, which would see Indian investment in the upstream and downstream Iranian oil and gas industry.

Ramachandran, however, gave no time-frame for LNG import, but conceded it would likely be in about three to four years.

IOC is Indias largest oil importer, accounting for half of the 1.6 million b/d imports, mostly from the Middle East.

He said IOC would also sign a term contract with BP Plc next month to import Gulf of Suez mixed crude oil during October-November period.

Speaking at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference here, he said IOCs recent term contracts included for the first time a 500,000 tonnes a year crude oil import from Brunei, delivery of which would began in August.

These contracts were to diversify IOC's crude oil import from international producers.

Ramachandran said India had also become a major petroleum product exporter, having supplied 10.3 million tonnes to the West Asian markets, which at present faced refining deficits.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

There's great uncertainty about the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Internal unrest and power struggles combined with external threats from the United States and a neighborhood in disorder make most experts believe that some kind of change is coming. The only question is, how?

The scenarios are many, from peaceful reform to a violent revolution, or even the possibility of a US invasion, although the latter is less likely as the Americans are under constant attack in Iraq and in search of a seemingly uncatchable enemy in Afghanistan. The question is, then, reform or revolution?

To answer this we can search for clues in the 1979 Islamic revolution that threw out the monarchy, and even though many things have changed in Iranian society and politics since then, there exist some pre-revolutionary factors that have remained quite static through history.

One of these is the importance of the economic well-being of the nation and its people. The period close to the 1979 revolution was characterized by economic recession, high inflation and high (and rising) unemployment after the economic boom in the 1960s and early 1970s. Together with the extremely unequal distribution of the wealth from oil, this was one of the major reasons for the civil unrest that developed into a revolution.

The Iranian economy is doing fine at the moment, although I wouldn't call it a boom. The economy has had significant growth since the late 1990s, with an average gross domestic product (GDP) increase of 5.7 percent over the past three years, and a steady diversification away from oil dependence.

But the growth has been possible to a large degree because of a relatively high oil price and increased domestic consumption, something that probably will change as Iraq gets its oil production up and the Iranian domestic market is satisfied. The trade surplus that Iran has had during the past years, with which the government has succeeded in building up the oil stabilization fund (enough for 10 months of imports), is predicted to change to a deficit during 2004 as a result of the fall in the price of oil. And similarly, the surplus of 2.1 percent for 2003's budget is estimated to shift to a 3 percent (of GDP) fall.

Summing up, one can see a change in economic trends to the negative, and adding the unemployment rate of 20-25 percent to this, with a need for about 900,000 new jobs each year, (currently 450,000 new jobs are created each year), this points to further discontent, especially among the youth. And similar to the 1970s, economic gains are going to a small elite and an extreme inequality exists between rich and poor, with the clerics in power standing on top of the ladder, something that is not unnoticed by common people.

This split between the clerical leaders and common people is becoming more and more visible, and besides their economic position, the clerical elite gain from several privileges in today's Iranian society. They are alienated from ordinary people in the same way that the Shah and the elite around him were during his last years in power. The widened gap between social groups was then maybe the most important reason for poor people to join the revolutionary movement, and certainly this can be shown to be true for 2003 as the differences are becoming more visible on the streets of Tehran.

Something else that's becoming more visible is the Western fashion worn by the youth and MTV music played on their stereos. Although this is in complete contrast to the 1970s youth, the struggle is basically the same today, and teenagers born after the revolution are fighting against a cultural dominance in the same way that their parents or older brothers and sisters did back then. In the 1970s it was the Shah's aggressive and untactful introduction of Western ways of living, and now it's against a maybe even more aggressive and untactful conservative Islamic cultural dominance. Both were and are disrespectful intrusions into ordinary people's lives, and as the experience of the 1970s showed us, the youth are likely to change their situation. Whether they do that slowly through reform or a fierce revolution is to be seen.

The trigger point is whether the clerical leadership will allow the people to have real political power or not. The student uprising a few years ago was calmed down to a degree by the belief that the more liberal President Mohammed Khatami would reform the system, and as we know, he was, to put it mildly, not too successful. Public discontent was a direct result, with a sharp decline for the reformists at the municipal elections this year. For example, there was only a 12 percent voter turnout in the capital Tehran. Besides criticizing Khatami's failures, people blame hardcore right-wingers in the government for refusing to allow changes in the system, and a feeling that legal political activity is useless is manifest throughout the populace.

This situation existed in a similar manner during the Shah's rule and was the main reason for otherwise peaceful intellectuals to revert to violent forms of politics, thus creating guerrilla militant actions that in turn resulted in even more oppression from the Shah's side. Even though the creation of guerrillas is unlikely in the present situation, the feeling that political action within the framework of the Islamic Republic is useless will lead to a radicalized opposition.

After the recent clashes between reformists and conservatives, many people believe that political activity is useless as they see their efforts in parliament (majlis) being reduced to nothing by the spiritual leader and the Guardian Council's veto rights, their leaders being arrested by a right-wing judiciary and murdered by conservative militias, their newspapers closed down with the editors facing charges and their demonstrators being beaten up and arrested. All these things have proved to people that the conservative leadership is not ready to give up supreme rule, and further desperation is likely. These same things happened during the 1970s, and back then the people responded by revolting and creating a new order.

But there are as yet no real signs that the same fate awaits the Islamic Republic. There can be several reasons for this. One of the strongest attributes of the Islamic Republic is that, unlike any other ruler or government (with the exception of the 1906 constitutional rule) in Iran's history, it was chosen by the people. In contrast, the Shah was appointed to take over by the British and Russians after his father's forced abdication by the very same. The Islamic Republic was voted for by an enormous majority of the people after the revolution in 1979, and this gives it a certain legitimacy no other Iranian rulers have had before.

Another difference between the Islamic Republic and the Shah is that the Shah was considered a puppet of the West who not only sold out the country to the Americans but also ignored Iranian traditions and culture. The Islamic Republic is not considered to be selling out the country in the same way, rather ruining it, and although people in general despise the conservative form of Shi'ite doctrine the elite stands for, no one can deny that Shi'ism has firm roots in Iranian history.

The third reason a revolution is unlikely, and maybe the most important one, is that the opposition has no answers to what or who will replace the Islamic Republic, and as long as people don't have an alternative to fight for they will have difficulty organizing themselves.

Whatever happens, one can be certain that any US military pressure on Iran will lead to less space for reformists to act on the internal scene, as Iranians are likely to forget internal problems and focus on the external threat in the same way they did during the Iraqi invasion of Iran. This would in turn lead to the conservatives getting the time they need to consolidate their power and purge the internal ranks in the same way they did in the long war of 1980-88.

Tomaj Keyvani is studying for a master's degree in Middle East studies at Uppsala University, Sweden. He can be contacted at tomajmotazed@hotmail.com.

"... the astonishing refusal of school students to chant the regime's anthem and instead to chant the banned Iranian National Anthem "Oh, Iran...!" "...students turning their backs during the official opening ceremonies of several schools have been reported as well as sporadic slogans against the regime and its leaders."

"The third reason a revolution is unlikely, and maybe the most important one, is that the opposition has no answers to what or who will replace the Islamic Republic, and as long as people don't have an alternative to fight for they will have difficulty organizing themselves."

Yes. Agree. Uniting for change isn't enough. Too vague. They need to have potential leaders to organize behind, or call for a specific form of government ; something tangible, not just a concept.

Canadian Foreign Minister Bill Graham said on Tuesday Iran has given assurances that the trial of an intelligence agent charged in the death of a Canadian journalist will be open to participation by Ottawa and the journalist's family.

Speaking to reporters after meeting his Iranian counterpart, Graham said Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi ''confirmed with me that charges have been laid against an intelligence officer in the Iranian system.''

Canada was also assured there will be a trial under Iranian law ''in which we (Canada) as a government will have access. It will be an open trial in which we will be able to participate and that the family of Madame (Zahra) Kazemi ... will be able to participate with legal representation,'' Graham said.

Kazemi's death in Iranian custody in July led to a diplomatic dispute between Iran and Canada and highlighted rivalries between Iranian hardliners who control the judiciary and the reformist-controlled Intelligence Ministry.

Graham said the case is a political issue in Iran and ''that we wish to, by bringing attention to it and working on it, reinforce the position of reformers in Iran.''

TEHRAN,(Agencies): An Iranian court is to try an Intelligence Ministry interrogator for the "semi-intentional" murder of a Canadian journalist in a rare test of the accountability of Iran's powerful security apparatus. The death in custody of Zahra Kazemi in July led to a diplomatic dispute between Iran and Canada and highlighted rivalries between Iranian hardliners who control the judiciary and the reformist controlled Intelligence Ministry. "The case is going to court now that it has been approved by the Tehran prosecutor's office," a judiciary official told Reuters on Tuesday without giving further details. The state-run Iran newspaper said earlier on Tuesday a judge had filed charges against the Intelligence Ministry interrogator, but had dismissed the case against a second agent.

Moderate President Mohammad Khatami appointed a new head of the Intelligence Ministry in 1999 and ensured the unprecedented prosecution of a number of "rogue agents" for killing a string of dissidents. Nine agents eventually received prison terms, but the ring-leader died in jail after drinking hair-remover in what court officials said was a suicide. Despite his efforts, Khatami has largely failed to get the upper and over powerful conservatives within the state despite a pair of overwhelming election victories in 1997 and 2001.

Iran said on Tuesday it was ready to help rebuild war-torn Iraq despite its opposition to the occupation of its neighbour by U.S. and British forces.

Iran's Economy and Finance Minister Tahmasb Mazaheri told Reuters that Britain had asked his country to play a role in Iraq's reconstruction, although Tehran does not recognise the U.S. administration in Baghdad.

''In our contacts with the British government, they have invited us to play our part and we said we are ready,'' he said during a visit to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

''America and Britain cannot ignore Iran. Iran is a neighbour of Iraq and can offer a lot in the way of resources and services,'' the minister said.

He did not set any conditions for helping.

Tehran, which itself fought a war with Baghdad in 1980-88, denounced the United States' invasion of Iraq in March. Washington for its part has accused Tehran of meddling in Iraq's internal affairs, a charge Iran denies.

VIENNA: The UN nuclear watchdog is to send its first inspection team to Iran on Friday (Sept 26) since imposing an Oct 31 deadline on Tehran to prove it is not secretly developing nuclear weapons, a spokeswoman said.

"The first mission is leaving on Friday and what will follow will be a lot of talks and inspections," Melissa Fleming said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had on Sept 12 imposed the deadline on Iran, also urging it to suspend enriching uranium which the United States claims could be used to make nuclear bombs.

Iranian atomic energy agency chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh on Sept 15 told an IAEA conference in Vienna that Iran remained fully committed to cooperating with the agency and honouring the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), despite its objections to being handed a deadline.

But Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, said in a newspaper report in Tehran on Monday that Iran had so far "cooperated beyond the (current nuclear anti-proliferation) accords and allowed the taking of (environmental) samples and inspections of non-nuclear sites".

Mr Salehi said that in the future Iran would go no further than its commitments under the NPT, "while completing what has been embarked upon".

He said Iran would continue talks with the IAEA on signing an additional protocol to allow IAEA inspectors to make surprise visits to suspect sites.

Melissa Fleming said the IAEA had "received nothing officially" from Tehran in the line of Mr Salehi's comments and was "moving forward with a very detailed and intense plan of work."

"This plan has been submitted to Iran so they are fully aware of what is required from their side and also from the work that the IAEA needs to do over this next period until Oct 31," Ms Fleming said.

In his book on terrorism, democrat presidential hopeful General Wesley Clark calls for a US attack on Iran. He argues that Iran, with its mass destruction weapons programs and its support of terrorism, threatens the US national security more than Iraq ever did. (Alireza Taheri)

Former US President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton support the candidacy of General Wesley Clark, possibly in the hopes that he would step aside and accept to become a running mate of Ms. Clinton, if they later feel that the state of economy makes President Bush vulnerable, writes William Safire in the New York Times. (Behnam Nateghi, New York)

and hopes that Russia will suspend its cooperation with Tehran's nuclear program until Iran fully cooperates with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

I hope Ivan understands that playing with the mullahs might get him killed. Putin's rebel [Reuters, AP, ABC) problems (Islamic terrorist), will only get worse with a nuclear armed theocracy on the Bear's southern border.

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