Four years ago, one of the nation’s largest counties implemented a risk-assessment system that is reducing unpleasant cost and timeline surprises on multimillion-dollar public works projects.

Built in the mid-1960s, the Factoria Transfer Station in Bellevue will be replaced with a larger and enclosed facility. The project’s expected to cost the King County (Wash.) Solid Waste Division $90 million.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story

The risk score for each category is calculated using this formula: (1-5 points)2 X weight (1, 1.5, or 2) X pre-baseline adjustment (0.75). The project risk score is determined by adding the 15 scores.

The score isn’t applied blindly. Judgment is applied in the form of review by a joint advisory group, which is empowered (among other things) to move projects on or off the list of “high risk” projects. These projects then become subject to additional oversight requirements. There are times when a project is added to the list to ensure a particular agency is represented. This worked out well for a relatively low-scoring airport project that later encountered scheduling challenges. Heightened reporting requirements kept the council posted and aware that costs would not be affected.

It’s important to note that the intent is not to use risk scoring to cancel projects. That may happen, of course, as it can with any project. Rather, by identifying projects with a higher chance of going off the rails, legislators can make review a higher priority and mandate more rigorous management protocols.