"No, I will not be running for President this cycle. It's absolutely not going to happen, it's not in my plans."

Barack Obama was staring at the TV screen, his expression serious. Deval Patrick, his friend and ally, was on CNN, firmly rejecting any possibility that he will run for President in the 2016 election. Well, the President thought grimly, there goes my last card.

In his reluctance to run for a third term and break all precedents, Obama tried to get someone who he truly believes will carry his legacy to run in his stead- Joe was the likeliest one. But he rejected it, and and implored the President to run. Then he tried Deval, but his announcement on CNN made it clear that it wasn't going to happen. Sure, he could just let Hillary or Andrew take the mantle, but could they truly win a general election and guard his legacy a as efficiently as he would've liked them to? He doubted it.

Now, it seemed, there was only one path left. A tough path that neither he nor Michelle thought they'd have to go through again. But there they were, standing in the beginning of this path for the third time.

Barack Obama picked up his telephone and spoke to the secretary. "Call David. I'm going to need his help again."

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Incumbent President Barack Obama and Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb both officially announced their respective bids for the Democratic nomination for President yesterday, with the President's announcement, of course, gaining much more attention and press.

Webb, a former Senator and Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagen is a moderate, southern Democrat and is considered a "blue dog"- a coalition of moderate Democrats who tend to have a conservative lean in either social or economic issues. Webb himself is considered more of a socially conservative politician, and is expected to try and rally the old southern Democratic base and the so-called Reagan Demcorats. However, he is not expected to gain much traction.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama's entry is much more significant. He is expected to start the campaign as the frontrunner, along with former Secretary Clinton, and is considered likely to prevail in such a matchup, especially after the recent allegations against her of an irresponsible use of a private email server in her time as Secretary of State. In fact, the President's entry into the Democratic primary is more than just consequential- it is historical. Obama is the first President since Bill Clinton to run for a third term, and we will have to wait for November 8th, 2016 tp see if he can succeed and become the first one since FDR to do so. Many conservative activists, and even progressives, claim that such an act is problematic and undemocratic, citing the precedent set by George Washington. Others, meanwhile, acclaim the decision and see President Obama as the best leader for America right now. It is clearly a polarizing issue, as many issues have recently become.

A bunch of new polls released conducted since the President tweeted his decision could serve to tell us the public's opinion on his decision:

Do you support President Obama's decision to run for a third term? (Likely Democratic Primary voters)Yes- 57%No- 32%Unsure- 12%

Do you support President Obama's decision to run for a third term? (General Electorate)Yes- 45%No- 39%Unsure- 16%

We can see that Obama, perhaps thanks to a combination of Clinton's email revelations and a polling bump from his announcement, starts with a lead against the former First Lady in both the national popular vote and the two earliest states to vote. Surprisingly, we can see Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, who has been recently gaining traction with the Democratic base and gathered a surprisingly strong internet following, performing especially well in the early states, especially New Hampshire, which neighbours his own Vermont. It remains to be seen if he can actually threaten the Obama-Clinton duopoly, but if any of the candidates can do it, he is considered the likeliest.

NEW YORK CITY - In an announcement that surprised many pundits and observers, who expected him to shy away from the long odds and run in 2020 or 2024, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced his run for the Democratic party's nomination for President. He has made his experience and the reforms he passed as Governor the centerpiece of his announcement, claiming that he is the "only candidate who has a proven progressive, liberal record on the issues".

According to Cuomo insiders, the Governor feels like he has a shot at an upset, and decided that running in four or eight years will be even harder. Cuomo is expected to try and use the split in the party's establishment between Clinton and Obama, as well as the Sanders campaign which is quickly gaining traction, and present himself as a compromise choice that progressives, liberals and moderates can all get behind. However, some big hurdles for him to overcome could be the stench of corruptions some claim is coming from his administration, as well as many progressive Democrats strongly disliking him.

Clinton, Obama, Sanders and the other declared candidates continue to convass the early states- it looks like none of the three is giving up on neither Iowa nor New Hampshire, strongly focusing on both states, while amongst the longshot candidates, Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb are focusing on Iowa and Lincoln Chafee on New Hampshire. Cuomo, too is expected to heavily focus on the Granite State.

The Republican Primaries are boiling, meanwhile, as Business Mogul Donald Trump has rocketed in the polls, passing frontrunners Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. His populist right win message seems to be resounding with the fired-up Republican base, worrying the party's establishment which is hoping that Bush is able to recover...

Fall is here, and the 2016 Presidential campaign is officially underway. With the first Democratic Debate approaching in a bit more than a month, the field of candidates in the world's oldest political party has solidified to seven, with two clear frontrunners. Let's look at the State of the Race and try to see who has the best chance for victory.

President Obama campaigning in Manchester, New Hampshire

Barack Obama

Previous jobs: Illinois State Senator (1997-2004), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005-2008), 44th President of the United States (2009-present)Campaign so far: The incumbent President was thought unlikely to run until a few months ago, when rumours begun to swirl about his intentions. The first President since Bill Clinton to run for a third term, Obama has a tough primary ahead of him, with former Secretary Hillary Clinton, a very popular and formidable Democrat, challenging him, among others. The President's campaign has been focusing heavily on victories in early states- Iowa and New Hampshire most of all. While South Carolina is considered very likely to be won by him, Obama's campaign is hoping that victories in these two states can give him an unstopable momentum and finish the primaries early.What it will take to win the primary: Not much. The President just needs to do well in the debates, which he already showed that he could, and keep up his campaigning. The strong poll numbers will come naturally if he does, and victory as well.Endorsements- Barack Obama, as the incumbent President, already has the support of many politicians. He was swiftly endorsed by some of his allies and homestate politicians, indluding Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE), Former Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA), Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D-IL), Senate Candidate Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (D-IL), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), Labour Secretary Tom Perez (D-MD), all of the Illinois Democratic Congressial Delegation and most of the House Black Caucus. But with the contested primary, many others are reluctant to endorse. Noteably, the party establishment isn't hurrying to rally behind the President, with some rumours saying that DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is supportive of Hillary Clinton and furious that Obama has decided to run instead of gibing Clinton 'her turn'. Other noteable endorsements include Agriculture Secretary and Former Governor Tom Vilack (D-IA), HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX), Representative Joaquín Castro (D-TX) and Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT).

Hillary Clinton giving a speech in Des Moines, Iowa

Hillary Clinton

Previous jobs: First Lady of Arkansas (1983-1992), First Lady of the United States (1993-2001), U.S. Senator from New York (2001-2009), Secretary of State (2009-2013)Campaign so far: Hillary Clinton raised many brows when she decided to run despite the looming threat of a primary against an incumbent President. However, at the age of 68, 2016 is considered Clinton's last likely chance to win the Presidency, and many of her supporters claim that it's her turn at the job. She's a strong candidate and has been campaigning well, garnering a loyal following that wants to see her as the first female President, but with a damaging email controversy and a split establishment vote, Clinton's path is not easy. The former First Lady has been focusing heavily in Iowa, New Hampshire and, noteably, Nevada.What it will take to win the primary: Clinton needs to effectively shake off her scandals, defeat Obama in the debates and win at least one of the early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, to gain the frontrunner status that she so craves.Endorsements: While most politicians are reluctant to endorse a challenger to the sitting President, Clinton has been racking a surprisingly strong amount of endorsements. Rumours are claiming that the DNC Chairwoman, Representative Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL), supports the former Secretary, and she has already recieved a few noteable endorsements from important officeholders. Of course, her husband, Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR), has swiftly endorsed her, but she also has the support of Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY), Governor Peter Shumlin (D-VT), Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Governor Maggie Hassan (D-NH), who is considered her currently most valuable endorsement.

Sanders rallies crowd in a NH rally

Bernie Sanders

Previous jobs: Mayor of Burlington (1981-1989), U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991-2007), U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-present)Campaign so far: Sanders, a 75 years-old Jew who is a registered independent and a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist is running a longshot campaign, but recently, his populist, progressive rhetoric has started resounding with the Democratic base, especially, according to the polls, with young and white voters. He's considered the likeliest to break the Obama-Clinton duopoly and his fundraising numbers, completely funded by small donors, donations averaging at 27$, are steadily ticking up. He has been heavily focusing on his neighbouring state, New Hampshire, but also frequenting Iowa.What it will take to win the primary: If Sanders wants to win, he needs neither Clinton nor Obama to collapse, and probably Cuomo to gain steam, effectively splitting the establishment vote. This could allow him to use his loyal, core following to win pluralities and become the frontrunner. In order to win, Sanders must do well in Iowa and Nevada, and most importantly, win New Hampshire.Endorsements: Sanders' insurgent populist campaign hasn't been gaining many endorsements, with the Democratic establishment very disdainful of him, but he did manage to gain the support of a homestate politician, Representative Peter Welch (D-VT) of a few politicians after his own mold, progressive populists- former Governor John Kitzhaber (D-OR), Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN), Representative Raúl Grijalva (D-NM) and a controversial figure, Representative Alan Grayson (D-FL).

LAS VEGAS - Last night, the first Democratic Debate of the season, after two official Republican ones already occured, drew a lot of interest due to the presence of President Obama, and as a result, a record number of 25 million voters on average. Let's look at a few key moments:

Bernie Sanders:"Let me say something that may not be great politics, but the secretary is right. The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails! Enough of the emails, let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America!"Hillary Clinton:"Thank you, Bernie!"

Andrew Cuomo:"Let's remember, folks, under President Obama, the Democratic party faced complete collapse in the midterms, twice. The President's eight years were decent, but it's time for someone who can work with congress and pass progressive reforms, as I proved I could in the Empire State."Barack Obama:"Uh, look, I respect Governor Cuomo, but I can't seem to remember a group of Democrats caucusing with the Republicans and giving them a majority under my leadership. Under Andrew Cuomo, a group of State Senators who called themselves Independent Democrats joined the Republicans in the Senate and gave them a majority, thus actually preventing the passage of many reforms in the state. Let's be real here, Governor."

Barack Obama:Secretary Clinton is saying that it's her turn, that it's time for someone new. But she has been in this for years, and is part of, well, basically, a political dynasty. She's a voice from the past, not a young future leader. So why should Democratic voters choose her, if that's the argument?Hillary Clinton:"Well, Mr. President, I'm not saying I'm some young, twenty-years-old woman, but I think it's generally unhealthy to have the same President for more than eight years. Is it so bad to wish for a change in leadership and in mindset, try something else, try passing important reforms such as healthcare and immigration reforms under someone new?"Jim Webb:Let me just say this, Anderson. These two, the President and his former Secretary, are just two creatures of Washington, D.C. trying to fight each other for the power they so crave. If the American people want to keep electing these kinds of people, very well, but I think it's time for someone who came to politics to work for the working class and solve problems. I am this man.

Lincoln Chafee:I think it's time we embrace someone who brings fresh ideas, and doesn't recycle the same old ideas. Martin recycles these ideas, President Obama recycles these ideas, even Bernie and Jim recycle these ideas. And let's not even start about Secretary Clinton, who voted for the disastrous Iraq War. I have fresh ideas that we didn't try, real solutions to real problems.Martin O'Malley:Well, I think Lincoln is being a bit hypocritical here. He's the son of a Washington politician, he's been a Washington politician for ages. His idea isn't fresh. Mine are- I'm the only candidate on this stage who is truly a Washington outsider, being a former Governor, and who can bring fresh ideas and the right experience to implement them.

Jim Webb:"Well, the question really is how are we going to solve energy problems here and in the global environment if you really want to address climate change? And really, we are not going to solve climate change simply with the laws here. It’s a global problem and I have been very strong on doing that. So let’s solve this problem in an international way, and then we really will have a way to address climate change."Bernie Sanders:"Well, I will tell you this- this is a moral issue. The scientists are telling us that we need to move extremely boldly. And let me also tell you that nothing is gonna happen unless we are prepared to deal with campaign finance reform, because the fossil fuel industry is funding the Republican Party, which denies the reality of climate change and certainly is not prepared to go forward aggressively. This is a moral issue. We have got to be extremely aggressive in working with China, India, Russia. The planet — the future of the planet is at stake."

This debate proved one thing- Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are the frontrunners. Jim Webb, and to a lesser extent, Lincoln Chafee, did manage to put in their voice a few times and do better expected, but Martin O'Malley and Andrew Cuomo flopped last night. We've seen all candidates exchanging barbs, with the most interactions being between the three frontrunners.The biggest stories of the night, though, are Sanders and Webb, the two outsider candidates- according to post-debate polls and statistics, they are the ones who increased their name recognition the most. This is especially helpful for Sanders, who has been steadily rising in the polls, and now seems like an actual threat to Obama and Clinton.On the social media front, Senators Sanders and Webb increased their Tweeter and Facebook followers by the greatest volume from all candidates, though Clinton and Obama managed to gain the most traction in the night.

NOTE: I know the podium order in the pictures and in the CNN thing, and even in the polls, isn't always the same. Try to ignore it, I'll likely be using the same picture until someone drops out because I'm too lazy to edit too much Also, I want to thank Castro whose wonderful TL gave me the idea of the podium thing, and who executed it much better, too.Thanks for reading! I'd like to hear what you think about the format

Jim Webb: Let me just say this, Anderson. These two, the President and his former Secretary, are just two creatures of Washington, D.C. trying to fight each other for the power they so crave. If the American people want to keep electing these kinds of people, very well, but I think it's time for someone who came to politics to work for the working class and solve problems. I am this man.

Truth. I can see Obama v. Clinton 2.0 turning some potential Clinton or Obama voters to Sanders. Obama's proclamations about Hillary are honestly a tad bit hypocritical as he runs to be POTUS for TWELVE years.

NASHUA - After remaining neutral for the early parts of the Democratic Primaries, Secretary of State, former Senator and former Democratic nominee for President in 2004 John Kerry announced his endorsement for his current boss, President Barack Obama. In a New Hampshire rally, Kerry called Obama "a true progressive leader in the home front, and in the global front", and "the leader America needs right now".

Kerry has had a rich experience in politics, and is still considered a popular figure in the Democratic party- his tenure as Secretary of State was seen very positively by doves and liberals, but negatively by hawkes and conservatives. Noteably, he failed to negotiate an agreement between the notoriously stubborn Israelis and Palestinians, but he did lead the efforts to reach the Iran Deal and under him, American foreign policy went through a relatively peaceful time.

The endorsement caused many to speculate that it meant another term for Kerry as Secretary of State, but the former Senator denied to rumour in an MSNBC interview. When asked about Barack Obama's main opponent, his predeccedor Hillary Clinton, Kerry called her "a find public servant, but not the leader to bring real change and reform".

MANCHESTER - Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), one of the three major contenders for the Democratic nomination in 2016, has long believed in a single-payer universal healthcare system. Yesterday, he made it a centerpiece of his campaign, announcing that "healthcare is a right" and that "no American should remain uninsured".

In the same rally, Sanders critisized Obamacare as "not going far enough" and asserted that it needs to be changed into a single-payer system. He also said that it's "a shame President Obama and Secretary Clinton aren't endorsing this system", which he claimed was the healthcare system in most western countries.

In an interview on Fox News, Democratic candidate Jim Webb, who has been recently gaining some traction with his populist rhetoric, said that he "doesn't believe there's any way congress would pay for single-payer healthcare", and avoided the question of his personal support for the system. Webb has, in the past, critisized Obamacare, saying that it should've been on a smaller scope. Candidate Lincoln Chafee, meanwhile, said that he was always an advocate for healthcare reform and that he supports universal coverage, but he's "unsure if single-payer is the way to go".

The other Democratic contenders didn't comment on this specific issue yet, but with Sanders' new crusade, the question is expected to come up in the next debate in three days. According to recently conducted polls, the majority of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters support a single payer system- when asked, 67% said they support it, 18% oppose and 15% are unsure.

DES MOINES - As the Democratic primary starts to get into gear, the second debate yesterday night was expected to focus heavily on domestic affairs, the main contentious issue between the Democratic candidate. However, one day prior, a series of terror attacks by ISIS struck Paris and France- three suicide bombings in the Stade de France, another suicide bombing and three shootings at four different restaurants and finally, a mass shooting and hostage situation at the Bataclan theatre, where the heavy metal band Eagles of Death Metal was playing. Two attackers in the theatre detonated their suicide vest, while the third was hit by police fire, and the vest was detonated as he fell. The death toll in the theatre alone was 89, and 130 overall.

At first, the Democratic debate was expected to be canceled, but CBS announced that it would go forth, just with a heavier focus on terrorism and foreign policy, and a minute of silence at the start. There were a few key moments in the debate, which could explain how each of the seven candidates did:

Bernie Sanders:"This unfourtunate event yesterday is truly a devastating one. My prayers are with the families of the victims. And I vow to you that as President, I will fight terorrism. However, the way to do it is not more wars that just disrupt stability, like the Iraq War. We need more stability in the region if we hope to defeat terrorism, and this war did the exact opposite. I don't think that the Democratic nominee should be a person who voted for this war."Lincoln Chafee:"I agree with the Senator on this. I always opposed the Iraq War, and I was one of the only Senators who voted against this. Secretary Clinton, here, voted for the war, despite being a Democrat at the time. This shows use what we need to know about her judgement."Martin O'Malley:"And if I might add, I believe that Secretary Clinton's current interventionist stance in Syria will also serve to further destrabilize the region. We should continue the President's strategy of helping the Iraqi regime and the Kurdish fighters in their war against ISIS with weapons, air bombings and counsel."Hillary Clinton:"Can I finally reply? Thank you. Well, you see, my vote against the Iraq was, at the time, was because I was willing to listen and make a sound judgement according to what I am told, instead of resorting to votes just for the sake of populism. The Bush administration mislead us, and with the information given to us, we voted for Iraq. If I knew the truth we know today, I wouldn't make this choice. And these three men, they claim to know foreign policy better than me, but you see, I was Secretary of State, I helped negotiate tough deals and prevent wars, I was there when Osama Bin Laden was killed. I have a record that would, I think, allow me to deal with this changing world better than any other candidate on this stage."

Bernie Sanders:"It's time for America to embrace single-payer, universal healthcare. This is a system that most European countries have, Canada and Australia and Israel have it. Healthcare is a fundamental right, and it's time to fix Obamacare into a single-payer system for everyone to recieve it in America!"Hillary Clinton:"Well, I agree with Senator Sanders that the Affordable Care Act needs to be fixed. It's not perfect, not by any measure, but still much better than any plan the Republican party might come up with. We need to reduce premium and make sure everyone can have their health covered, but I'm not sure a single-payer system is the right path. We're a big, populated country, and we'd be hard-pressed to actually fund it."Barack Obama:"Everyone keeps saying Obamacare this, Obamacare this, but we must remember- this was a compromise bill. Because of various Democratic Senators whose votes we needed, we had to remove the public option, which is something that I still believe we need. If I will be President, hopefully with a Democratic Senate majority, I vow that we will work as hard as we can to add the public option and finally have a universal healthcare system!"

Andrew Cuomo:"I am running because I'm the only candidate here who offeres real change, and has the chops to prove it. In New York, I passed more progressive legislation than any other candidate in the country, while President Obama has been less than successful in working with Congress and Secretary Clinton had been alternating between a foreign policy role with no influence on domestic policy, and between working in her foundation."Jim Webb:"This is actually pretty funny. Governor Cuomo claims that he's here to bring change, but he's actually bringing the old, recycled ideas that brought us nowhere in the last eight years. He's actually a creature of D.C., even if he doesn't live there. A swamp creature, whose administration in Albany reeks of corruption, with suspicions, probes and even indictments and convictions against members of his administration."Andrew Cuomo:"What you seem to suggest here, Senator, is insulting and outright slanderous. I have been a fighter for working class Americans while you worked for the Reagan administration that trampled them!"Jim Webb:"I've been serving my country, Governor, as soldier in the army, in positions like Secretary of the Navy and Senator. You've been serving yourself and your special interest friends."

As we can see, this was a pretty contentious debate. While Hillary Clinton managed to rebound and do very well, using her experience and extensive knowledge in a foreign-policy oriented debate, Obama and Sanders had very solid performances as well, especially on the issue of healthcare. The biggest losers tonight were probably Jim Webb and Andrew Cuomo, who bogged down each other in a few nasty attacks. These candiates, a liberal New Democrat and a conservative Old Democrat, are perfect opposites, and it seems to be coming into light as the campaign continues. Here are the polls conducted after the debate:

Despite Secretary Clinton's attempts to put away the issue, the FBI has expanded its inquries into her use of a private email server, this time to check if anyone in the State Department jeopardized national security secrets.

These new revelations threaten to harm Clinton's presidential campaign. Though President Barack Obama said that he "does not believe Secretary Clinton put our national security in danger", and Senator Bernie Sanders famously said that America is "tired of hearing about the goddamn emails", refusing to comment on them thereafter, some of her other opponents jumped on the opportunity. Former Senator Jim Webb's campaign commented that "Clinton is clearly irresponsible and lacks judgement, Senator Webb never even thought of doing anything of the sort as Secretary of the Navy and will never do it as President". Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner tweeted that "Crooked Hillary should never be allowed to run the country! Can't handle national security secrets!".

If the scandal does hurt her primary campaign, Clinton's loss of support is expected to benefit mainly President Obama, with polls showing him a consistent second choice with most of her supporters. Asked for a comment about that, the Obama campaign refused to respond.

Thanks for reading I plan this TL to focus more about Obama, and I'm starting to think that going through the primary at this pace will be a bit tiring. Should I increase the pace and cover the debates and events until Iowa more briefly and quickly, or do you like the current pace?