The next FOMC meeting where a hike might occur is not until March 19-20. Unless the government shut down and the trade war seriously harm growth, I don’t see why an increase shouldn’t happen at that meeting, if the Fed really is basing its decisions on economic data.

Faced with political pressure from the president to stop raising rates and panic on the part of investors who were seeing their massive capital gains disappear, the Fed could have punted. Instead, it decided to continue trying to win the game.