The EIU view

Given the fragmented opposition, we expect the president, Idriss Déby, to remain in power in 2019-20. However, Chad's political stability will stay vulnerable due to heightened social tensions and a regional spread of Islamist militancy. The economy will continue to recover in 2019-20 owing to an easing of the current fiscal austerity. The dominant oil sector will remain the main driver of real GDP growth.

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Emergency declared in eastern provinces
The surge in inter-communal violence will place more pressure on the security forces, who already show signs of being overwhelmed, with numerous crises in various parts of Chad.

Social media restrictions lifted
The ban can be reinstated if social unrest resumes. We expect the authorities to use force to prevent the spread of demonstrations and for overall stability not to be jeopardised.