Abstract

To study the effect of habitat fragmentation on population viability, I used extinction rates on islands in archipelagoes and estimated the relative probability of extinction per species on single large islands and sets of smaller islands with the same total area. Data on lizards, birds, and mammals on oceanic islands and mammals on mountaintops and in nature reserves yield similar results. Species are likely to go extinct on all the small islands before they go extinct on the single, large island. In the short term, the analysis indicates that extinction probabilities may be lower on a set of small islands. This is perhaps an artifact due to underestimation of extinction rates on small islands and/or the necessity of pooling species in a focal taxon to obtain estimates of extinction rates (which may obscure area thresholds and underestimate the slope and curvature of extinction rates as a function of area). Ultimately, cumulative extinction probabilities are higher for a set of small islands than for single large islands. Mean and median times to extinction tend to be shorter in the fragmented systems, in some cases much shorter. Thus, to minimize extinction rates in isolated habitat remnants and nature reserve systems, the degree of fragmentation should be minimized