LOS ANGELES - California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage in the metropolitan area.

The damage created by an earthquake depends greatly on where it hits. A 7.1 quake ? much stronger than Northridge ? hit the Mojave Desert in 1999 but caused only a few injuries and no deaths.

California is one of the world's most seismically active regions. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the potential severity of ground shaking in an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the earthquake center, which is headquartered at the University of Southern California.

Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or larger; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8.

Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield in central California southeast to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but the southernmost segment has not popped in more than three centuries.

Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino east of Los Angeles.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080414/ap_on_sc/california_quakes

I-Want-Troy's-Hair

04-15-2008, 12:26 AM

And there's going to be a tornadoes in Nebraska and a hurricane in Florida and floods in Missouri. Unfortunately this is the trade off to live on the left coast you trade beautiful weather for ground that shakes.

An earthquake of any magnitude scares the hell out of me. I live about 25 miles from the Southern half of the San Andreas fault and if the thing so much as burps we're (meaning me) are in some BIG freaking trouble.

I don't think I'll have to worry much about earthquakes because I was watching a show the other night and they said the world is supposed to end on December 21, 2012 and frankly I don't think the earthquake will get here in time. :flap:

revefsreleets

04-15-2008, 08:39 PM

They said this same thing 30 years ago...and it was beyond the shadow of a doubt definitely going to happen.

stlrtruck

04-16-2008, 10:23 AM

They said this same thing 30 years ago...and it was beyond the shadow of a doubt definitely going to happen.

And along those same lines, one day we're all going to die (if I'm correct it will be when the bungles no longer suck). :popcorn:

revefsreleets

04-16-2008, 10:26 AM

1/2 of marriages end in divorce.

I guess that means the other half end up in death.

Rum-pum-pum

klick81

04-16-2008, 10:52 AM

They said this same thing 30 years ago...and it was beyond the shadow of a doubt definitely going to happen.

Exactly. Nothing to see here, ladies and gents. :coffee:

Dino 6 Rings

04-16-2008, 12:17 PM

So what happens first? The Huge Cali Quake? The Earth Destroying Asteroid? or the Browns win a playoff game?
:sofunny:

stlrtruck

04-16-2008, 02:03 PM

So what happens first? The Huge Cali Quake? The Earth Destroying Asteroid? or the Browns win a playoff game?
:sofunny:

Or the bungles win a Super Bowl (oh wait, we know that's never going to happen!)

tony hipchest

04-16-2008, 02:11 PM

They said this same thing 30 years ago...and it was beyond the shadow of a doubt definitely going to happen.
i was sure it was gonna happen as soon as warren sapp stepped off the plane in oakland.

fansince'76

04-16-2008, 02:20 PM

They said this same thing 30 years ago...and it was beyond the shadow of a doubt definitely going to happen.

Very much like the "global cooling phenomenon" that was happening around the same time.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down.

Funny how the scientific community completely reverses itself in a generation's time, but now I'm supposed to accept as gospel their assertions that the Earth will be completely underwater by 2100? Right. :coffee:

revefsreleets

04-16-2008, 04:29 PM

Hey, didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow"? That movie was all fact, baby...ALL fact!

Tankus_Maximus

04-16-2008, 11:41 PM

Just what this place needs! Something to bring the housing market even lower!!

All the more reason to move the family the hell outta here, and into the 'Burgh!!

Preacher

04-17-2008, 12:41 AM

Very much like the "global cooling phenomenon" that was happening around the same time.

Funny how the scientific community completely reverses itself in a generation's time, but now I'm supposed to accept as gospel their assertions that the Earth will be completely underwater by 2100? Right. :coffee: