2010 Strikeouts by difficulty update

September 30th, 2010 by pbr

Here’s what we get when we assign weights to pitchers strikeout totals based on the frequency their victims strike out in general. For example, Mark Reynolds strikes out about once every 2.9 plate appearances, and the league average is 5.4, so a strikeout of Mark Reynolds is only worth about 0.54 in “Strike equivalent difficulty” (Ked – I’d subscript the “ed” in that label, but then I’d have to find out how). Juan Pierre, on the other hand, strikes out very rarely – once per 15.6 plate appearances, so striking him out is worth 2.9 Ked.

Felix Hernandez has a commanding lead in strikeouts by difficulty – his 232 actual strikeouts have the equivalent difficulty of striking out 261 batters with average strikeout rates. 131 (or 56.4%) of his Ks have been recorded against batters who strike out less often than the league average. He’s the only pitcher to throw 10 strikeouts against batters whose PA per K rate is at least double the league average, and the closest competitor has only 7. Among pitchers with 200 strikeouts this year, he’s the only pitcher who has thrown more than half of his strikeouts against batters who are better than average at not striking out.

Here are the top 30 in 2010 for Strikeout equivalent difficulty (Ked):

Pitcher

Actual Ks

Ked

Ked – K

Ks vs above average batters

Ks vs batters above 1.5 * average

Ks vs batters above 2 * average

Felix Hernandez

232

261.2

29.2

131

36

10

Jered Weaver

229

240.7

11.7

105

26

7

Justin Verlander

219

226.9

7.9

106

19

4

Roy Halladay

219

223.1

4.1

86

24

6

Tim Lincecum

231

222.8

-8.2

87

18

3

Jon Lester

220

222.7

2.7

102

17

2

Francisco Liriano

195

211.1

16.2

102

19

4

Clayton Kershaw

212

207.4

-4.6

76

20

6

Adam Wainwright

213

206.4

-6.6

82

17

4

Cole Hamels

209

205.6

-3.4

92

18

3

Ryan Dempster

200

203.9

3.9

77

25

5

Max Scherzer

184

202.6

18.6

96

30

4

Colby Lewis

192

200.8

8.8

93

17

6

C.C. Sabathia

197

197.1

0.1

86

20

5

Ubaldo Jimenez

204

191.7

-12.3

76

9

1

Yovani Gallardo

200

190

-10.0

86

9

0

James Shields

186

189

3

81

17

1

David Price

187

188.9

1.9

79

13

2

Brandon Morrow

178

186.9

8.9

91

13

3

Jonathan Sanchez

200

185.7

-14.3

66

15

2

Ricky Romero

169

184.1

15.1

91

18

4

Zack Greinke

172

183.4

11.4

84

14

4

C.J. Wilson

166

181.2

15.2

84

24

6

Ervin Santana

168

176.4

8.4

82

20

4

Mat Latos

185

172.3

-12.7

68

9

3

Shaun Marcum

161

169.6

8.6

74

16

4

Josh Johnson

186

169.3

-16.7

57

11

2

Chris Carpenter

175

167.4

-7.6

61

14

5

Wandy Rodriguez

178

167.3

-10.7

65

11

2

Gio Gonzalez

163

166.4

3.4

71

13

2

The three columns on the right indicate strikeouts against batters who are above the major league average in plate appearances per strikeout (about 5.4); strikeouts against batters who are better than 1.5 times league average (about 8.1); and strikeouts against batters who are better than double the league average strikeout rate (about 10.8).

Hernandez’s 10 most difficult strikeouts have been against Alberto Callaspo, David Eckstein (twice), AJ Pierzinski, Joe Mauer (three times), Kurt Suzuki and Jason Kendal (twice). He’s also struck out Miguel Tejada once, Orlando Cabrera once, and Vlad Guerrero 5 times, and all those guys strike out less often than once per 10 plate appearances.

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