With the recent additions of Joe Nelson and Pat Burrell, let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back later today or tomorrow morning to look at the 25-man roster and lineup.40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

Ages are as of today.

Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster

Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.

There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jae Kuk Ryu is out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for him on the 25-man roster.

The Rays have 5 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for those players are educated guestimations based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. Anybody you think we are way off on?

Troy Percival’s 2009 salary was bumped up by $445K due to escalators in his contract for appearing in 50 games and finishing 38.

The Rays appear to be stuck with Troy Percival and Chad Bradford. Their $7.95 million combined salaries stick out like a sore thumb.

As a Rule 5 draft pick, Derek Rodriguez must be on the major league roster or be offered back to his original team. We don’t see a spot for Rodriguez, but we think the Rays will work out a deal to keep Rodriguez in the organization. It would likely cost the Rays a low-level minor leaguer or cash.

The opening day payroll now projects to be $60.3 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $64.3 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (DH) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro).

$60 million is most likely at the high-end of where the Rays want their payroll to be and may even be above the threshold. If the Rays want to add another player (Gabe Kapler, Rocco Baldelli), they would most likely have to trade an existing contract. The Rays tried moving Chad Bradford but could not find any takers. Other possibles would be Carl Crawford and Gabe Gross.

A year ago, the Rays projected to have 7 million dollar players. That number has now more than doubled to 15.

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4 Comments

Wouldn't it be in our best interest to sign Upton to a 5 or 6 year deal now prior to next year's arbitration? Compare the Longoria deal with the Phillies' contract with Ryan Howard. Longoria was signed a week into his major league career to a deal that seems VERY budget friendly. Had Philadelphia done the same with Howard during his rookie season, they probably wouldn't already be at the 10 million mark for his services. In fact, when he wins this year's arbitration case, he'll probably make 14-15 million. I'll bet they could have gotten him to sign a 6 year, 24 million dollar deal during his rookie season.

That leads me back to the point...Upton's 30 home runs and 45 stolen bases next year. When the arbitrator awards Upton 8 million for 2010 and 12 million for 2011, the Rays will really wish they had signed him now to a 5 year, 20 million dollar deal.

I have not studied similar players, but let's say Upton's postseason is a preview for how he will play in 2009. Recalling his 24 home runs and .300 average in 2007, how far off are my arbitration guesses if he does hit 30 home runs, bats .300 and steals 45 bases? What do you think about my opinion that we should try to lock him up for five years now?

i would have to dig a little deeper to see where your specific numbers are, but i do think it is a good idea to lock him up now. and i think the Rays want to also.

there is some feeling that Upton is dead set on hitting the free agent market as soon as possible. if the Rays want to sign him longterm, Upton would most likely have to give up one or two of his free agency years.

Ok, thanks. I'll be interested to see what similar players to Upton have gotten the last couple years in arbitration.

While I'm on salaries, should I be concerned that all Rays long term contracts increase each year? We are at 64M this year for 40 players, already nearly 50% increase from 2008. Next year we have 9 contracts that are worth over 49M. Those same 9 guys represent 38.5M of our 64M this year. Does this mean that the Crawford 2010 contract (10 million) will be bought out for 1.25 million to save money? I'm worried that our small market fan base won't be able to afford the back end of the long term deals of our favorite players, specifically, the team option years of Aki, Longoria, Crawford, Shields, and Kazmir. Would we have to become a season sell-out team like the Red Sox to afford the back end of these contracts?