The afternoon weather data: The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. highs of 39 Weds, 48 Thurs., and 53 on Friday (it could only get that warm on Fri. if the warm front gets thru and that’s pretty iffy). G.R. stays dry with an inch of snow tonight up toward Cadillac and points north tonight…guess there could be a trace north of G.R. The GFS is similar…dry until early Friday AM with highs of 37 on Weds. and 42 on Thursday, with a big warm-up and temperatures in the 50s early next week (the GFS takes G.R. t0 57 Monday evening/night). The GFS gives G.R. 0.14″ of probably cold rain on Friday. The European gives G.R. just 0.01″ Friday, then half an inch of rain mainly Sat. night…with showers thru Monday and temperatures in the upper 50s Monday night. There’s no sign of any significant snow in the next week. The GFS model for early December has much warmer than average temperatures over much of the Lower 48 states and the Arctic with colder than average temperatures across Western Canada, Alaska and Siberia. CFS says colder and snowier as we approach Christmas.

Snowcover Tues. AM: 1″ Scottville…3″ Houghton Lake, Traverse City…5″ Newberry…6″ Gaylord, Kalkaska, Marquette…7″ Ironwood…9″ Munising…10″ Sault Ste. Marie…13″ Grand Marais and Twin Lakes. Here’s radar of the East Coast storm. This is the 2nd snowstorm of the month (plus Sandy) for much of this area. Today’s storm is not a big one…the most snow in Pennsylvania as of 1 PM was 4.3″.

Jack your killing us with all of the links. It takes forever to sit through all of those songs. I don’t like this band or the song but the song and the band name are fitting here, CUE: http://youtu.be/wCiqL5wtNTs

I LIKE the one that’s showing a foot of snow….LOL!! THAT would get me in the Christmas Spirit!! (Yeah – I realize that most of the world doesn’t have snow on Christmas – but I’m a Michigan girl. Went to Hawaii the day after Christmas one year – everything seemed so bizarre…LOL!! “Santa riding a porpoise???”

It seems like its going to be almost impossible to break out of this mild weather. Hard to believe we can go from the temps we are having now, and doing a complete flip flop, and getting into a cold and snowy pattern.
Losing hope for “real” winter

KEV, NEVER lose HOPE!…like root beer, it FLOATS! Try having your potato farm go up in emerald smoke! Like me Uncle Seamus use to say-”ya kin git ta mist a’way fro yer guinness, but ye no kin git ta guinness a’way fro me mis-TER”….or something or other like that
Seriously, you could have been the homeowner to have a deer break through your door and ‘ram’sack your house like a good neighbor did up in Saugatuck last week! WOWSERS.
UPDATED forecast for all of Saugatuck and vicinty:
“Vanilla sky turns to ebony and unleashes millions of large,ivory frosted flakes(non-unionized) w/ a 100% chc of snowboarders,skiiers,plow-operators,snowmobilers and school-children everywhere caroling and dancing w/ JOY!(or at least her twin sis + BFF – Bliss AND Ecstasy;)

Here’s an awesome read that really goes into why the models have been so wrong – especially lately (hint: Bering Sea Omega Ridge). Until this blocking moves, there will be no long-term pattern changes.

“There is simply no mechanism for delivering cold air into the country east the rocky mountains during the first week or two weeks of December… and possibly throughout most of the month.”

…and then there was this pre-season poll that had FIGHTING IRISH getting blocked out of BCS POST-SEASON GAME & lookey here how those experts done verified! ND gots the mechanism to drive and deliver a CHAMPIONSHIP as the T.E.O index goes OFF THE CHARTS POSITIVE! Whether GA, or BAMA….makes NO diff. Opponent will not have a Bering on the out-come heck or highwater.Rex and friends, pHI BETA SIGMA CHI CAN CHEER-I PI CK their noses to win w/crimson sorority sisters like oMega Ryan and Delta Burke- GO IRISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right you are, Brad!I only used “block” term to keep it relevant (to wx:)sorta…i am Maize AND Blue FAN TOO-
but growing up in my house had pre-requisite of rooting for Irish(hint: my last name is exactly the same as the Prof./ nemesis of Sherlock Holmes).PEACE, sir

Don’t look now…but 12z GFS has some Irish Christmas magic @ 228 w/ crosspolar flow and 967mb low 42 mi. sse of Ft Wayne crawling at 1 mph through hr 252!…ok, so 12GFS is only out to 156hr.;but i did say don’t look- and who knows…it IS the GFS AFTERALL!

‘CFS says coldier and snowier’ – funny, at one time this was the accepted norm considering the date, but now that it’s becoming less wintery it has become ‘news’ apparently (the broadcaster of the source being a known global warming skeptic). Proof? Check out the ‘AGW’ posts and hardly a word about this weekend’s huge warm up. Then again, when something becomes normal (warmth) it becomes less of a news item.

John Dee, per his forecast text, thinks he’ll only lose 4-7″ this weekend into early next week….Dear John- it’s LES, IF you don’t lose ALL of your snow w/ temps. pushing 50 + rain.. by next Tue., i will drive to Twin Lakes and pin a BENJAMIN to your ALcam!
ps- Sierra’s look to get 10-15 FEET!!

I dunno motox- progs show nearly 72 hours of temps abv freezing starting Sat. for Keweenaw- throw in a little rain + 850′s peaking near +10…surface temps. mid-upper 40′s on Mon.I’ve seen more than 4-7″ LES melt in LESS time given aforementioned conditions;just sayin!

It does look like we are going to have a brief warm up starting Saturday until mid week next week. I think I heard last nights run of the Euro weeklies showed a more favorable winter like setup coming shortly after this brief warm up. The cold and snow is building rapidly in Canada and I would suspect as the jet stream will strengthen over time we will get longer waves coming through forcing the cold air south. I know to some it feels like last winter but the setups are not the same at all when you look at the indices, SST, monthly trends and historical stats. Nothing is a given but we are not looking at a repeat from last year in my opinion.

With help of October Precip is about the same compared to last year however trends showing cooler temps for GRR heading into meteorological winter compared to last years setup and slightly below the last 30 year normal. However just to clarify you can still get above average snowfall with less overall precipitation based on higher snowfall ratio’s when it is colder.

1. No snowstorms in sight.
2. No cold air in sight.
3. All long range models and forecasts are worthless and usually wrong, especially when trying to predict winter weather.
4. Garbage in – garbage out – this is a good way to describe long range models and ensembles.
5. There are no indications of cold and snow in the near or mid range future.
6. This could be another total bust of a winter.
7. We are headed for a long stretch of above average temperatures.
8. This is starting to look just like last year – talk of cold and snow in the long range that NEVER happens!
9. Golfing looks GREAT for this weekend and all of next week!
10. Does anyone really believe the models and HYPE that are referring to cold and snow around 12-20 through 12-30? What a joke!!! Totally outrageous!

“9.Golfing looks GREAT …and all of next week!” Rocky,i’ll meet you next Wed. @ 11am at the course of your choosing…..maybe the girls from ’8 West’ could join us and film you searching the ruff for a red titleist buried in snow w/a side of 25mph winds

I saw one 90 in March and I would have liked to see that station calibrated to verify that reading. We had 2 days that reached 100 in July. In July 1936 we had a whole week with an average high of 102.7 (seven consecutive days with highs of 99 to 108). We hit 100 twelve times in the 1930s and we’ve only hit 100 only 3 times since 1964. And we haven’t made 60 yet (it’s still Nov. 27). It was 69 on Dec. 5, 2001. We had 5 days with high temperatures between 61 and 67 in Dec. 1982 and the planet somehow survived. The warmest Decembers in G.R. have been: 1) 1889 2) 1923 3) 1982 4) 1931

Only good thing if that were to happen is we wouldn’t have to drive in the bad road conditions. Ever since 2005 when I wrapped my suv around a tree, due to black ice, I have been terrified to drive in the snow and ice.

Michael 30′s this time of year are actually quite common and last November I believe there were a few afternoons with highs only in the 30′s and it was a mild winter so 30′s have nothing to do with this writer it is what NAO winter it will be right now it looks to be more of a positive NAO winter meaning dry and mild for you Michigan olks enjoy Michael you will not get a snowy winter o need to get hyped up o it

Get out and enjoy this nice warm fall weather. This weekend should be great. Don’t worry about all of the mention of rain. It will be very scattered and light. Should be great for golfing and yard work!! Next week looks warm also. The beat goes on and on and on!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter lovers are in trouble.

And you know how everyone keeps saying that each year maybe next year what happens nothing I am starting to see signs of a positive NAO winter for you guys looks like another dry and mild winter have fun up there

Based on what I’m looking at in the longer range (if its worth anything) is that the warmth is going to stay for at least two more weeks maybe three. The AO, NAO are going into the positive territory and will remain there til at least mid December. We have a persistent Gulf of Alaska low pushing milder weather into the U.S. which doesn’t show any signs to breakdown til mid month and thats an if. There is also a stubborn high parked over northeast Russia which is also giving our mild but more importantly the dry pattern. Until these two can break down and disappear then you can expect the same ole’ dry mild pattern. If (IF) for some reason this pattern doesn’t break down through the whole winter then were in for some major problem like severe drought and probably a hell of summer, like living hell. We need the moisture so I’m hoping this pattern breaks and we get blizzard after blizzard and stay around 0 through the whole winter and that would be the kinda of winter I could live with. But until then Rocky enjoy your golfing and just get out and enjoy what we have in the great outdoors of “pure Michigan”.

Good analysis and I am glad that you added the big what “If” because there are no indication that this current pattern will be changing at all. Let’s not forget the following predictions that we have heard from a lot of experts already this season.
1. Coldest November since 2002? NO
2. Big storm and very cold air will hit on 11-28. NO!
3. Winter is here – snow on the way. NO
4. Cold and snow starting in the beginning of December. NO
5. Very cold arctic air to arrive around December 10th?
6. Expect near to above average snowfall and near to below normal temperatures this winter?

How have all of these predictions worked out so far? And now the latest fantasy land predictions are the ones for December 20th through the 30th? Crazy!

Winter for you Michigan folks will be another mild and dry one enjoy it I see Florida winters in your future as it keeps getting warmer and warmer with lesser and lesser sow each year welcome global warming!

Well, for the (i don’t know how many consecutive falls it has been), my family in PA has received their first good snowfall before us……I can’t believe it looks like we’re going well into December AGAIN for the first snow. Urgh