It’s easy to get complacent with such a great player as we’ve come to expect solid production from The People’s MVP. He’s so good that it’s easy to forget just how good he is. Check out his team and National League ranks this season in a number of areas:

As you can see, not only is Goldy leading the team in nearly every important offensive category (Montero leads in OBP, Chavez in ISO). He also happens to be among the league leaders in those same categories. You probably expected this, but it’s just confirmation that he’s really, really good across the board.

But there is something troubling in his peripherals, as was first pointed out to me by twitter companion Ron. He remarked a few weeks back that Goldschmidt wasn’t taking walks like he did last season. I’d noticed this, too, but looked it up and was surprised to see how far his walk rate had actually fallen. My response was to say that we should wait a little while before drawing any conclusions as the sample size was considerably smaller than it is now. Well, now the sample is bigger and, guess what, his walk rate is still down. Way down.

For comparison’s sake, here is Goldy’s walk rate, strikeout rate and walk to strikeout ratio over the last three seasons:

The strikeouts have stayed pretty constant, but the walks have fallen off dramatically. Because walks are such an important component of WAR, wOBA, wRC+ and other collective offensive metrics, it’s no wonder he’s not closer to the top of the National League (although he’s still in good standing).

So what’s up with this trend? Digging into the PITCHf/x data, it’s hard to find anything conclusive. Goldschmidt is swinging at the same number of pitches and is showing the same plate discipline as last year. In short, he’s not swinging wildly or chasing a bunch of pitches out of the zone relative to last season. He’s making the same amount of contact, too, meaning he’s not whiffing more. So what gives? Are pitchers throwing to him differently than they did in 2013? It doesn’t look like it.

2013 Heat Map (all pitches)

2014 Heat Map (all pitches)

As we’ve come to know, Paul Goldschmidt takes the ball where it’s pitched. Throwing him away? He’ll put in the right field gap or drive it over the wall. Pitching him inside? He’ll pull it down the line or take you way, way deep. This leaves the option of pitching him down the middle and you’ve seen enough of Goldy to know that’s a bad idea no matter what. This is possibly Goldschmidt’s greatest strength, but what does it have to do with is walks? Comparable to other power hitter, Paul Goldschmidt receives a lot of pitches in the zone. Throw him pitches in the zone and he’ll swing. Jose Abreu, Jose Bautista and Adrian Gonzalez all see fewer than 42% of pitches in the zone. Goldy gets more than 47% of his pitches in the strike zone. He swings at these pitches, just like he should.

But the 47% of pitches in the zone that Paul receives is exactly what he received last year, so while it’s a large amount compared to his peers, it’s not like he’s getting more of them than normal. He’s not striking out more, but he’s taking far fewer walks, so he’s putting the ball in play more often. This confirms what I feared initially: he’s pressing.

Rather than take a walk, he’s making contact. With a .304 average and a .361 BABIP, we can’t really blame him for swinging, but is this really what’s best for the team? It’s hard to imagine that getting on base more often is a bad thing, but that’s exactly what’s transpired with the extra balls put into play (.401 OBP in 2013, .356 OBP in 2014). For those that believe in lineup protection, this seems pretty counterintuitive. Mark Trumbo and the current version of Miguel Montero provide far more protection than what he had last year. Getting on base for Montero seems like a pretty good idea.

There’s no clear-cut conclusion here. Unless Paul’s about to fess up to actively trying to put more balls in play and take fewer free passes, there’s not a lot we can say. What we do know is that getting on base more is a good thing and getting on base less is bad. For now, he’s getting on base less. Maybe this is an organizational directive since we know they don’t like math, but everything we know about baseball speaks to the contrary. For now, we’ll have to wait patiently and hope Goldy starts doing the same.

10 Responses to Something Paul Goldschmidt Could Actually Improve

Looks like you’re keeping up the psychic work. You write an article about Goldy, and he hits a monster shot to center. You’re definitely right though, he seems like he’s not trying to walk as much this season. I think there are some games where he realizes that our offense is doing nothing, and he’s trying for an XBH. But even when he swings at a pitch outside the strike zone, the swing doesn’t look crazy or uncontrolled.

YOU SUCK. I say we trade Zeigler, Parra, Pollock, and Montero – because they’re all far below average ballplayers. After that, we bring up Didi and send Owings back to AAA, because he’s not as cute as Didi, apparently. Zeigler, even though he’s one of the best relievers in the game, doesn’t deserve a spot on the 40 man just because I said so. And Parra? He can’t hit lefties nor can he hit homeruns, so it’s time to send him to another team where his league best defense the last 3 years can screw us over every time he plays against us. Pollock, even though he won NLPOTW last week is overrated. Adam Eaton was clearly the better answer in CF, and Pollock is a waste of space. Can’t we start somebody else in center? Like Incarte?

You forgot to trade Josh Collmenter because he can’t get through the lineup more than twice. Didi is more cute than Owings, so you’ve got a point there, too.

But seriously, guys get hot and guys get cold. AJ’s red-hot and playing better than any scout or analyst ever thought possible. Montero has put his woes behind him. Parra remains valuable but hasn’t turned a corner against against lefties as most of us had hoped. Ziegler continues to be awesome.

Keep in mind, all analysis is snapshot of what’s happening at the moment and to date. Some guys continue to grow (Pollock) and others don’t quite make it over the hump (Parra). No one has a crystal ball, but we always look for the indicators that suggest success or failure is going to be sustained.

You’ve got to be kidding me. Parra’s defense has kept us in plenty of games and he hits well enough to be the everyday right fielder (if we had him for power he would already be gone). Zeigler is a magician when he comes in in a jam and would be a closer (should be the closer I hate Reed.) on most teams. . Owings is FAR better than Didi, the only thing Didi has on Owings is his defense and even then it isn’t like Owings is below average. Pollock has been hot for almost a MONTH now and is showing no signs of stopping and has a higher OBP than Adam Eaton, who oh by the way was injured again this year. Suggesting Inciarte play center every day is the dumbest thing you posted though. Iniciarte is hitting 111 last time I checked and is about to be sent back down.

We NEED to keep Parra … his D is too valuable an asset to lose, even if it’s ‘weaker’ this year – he’s still above league average. And I’m on the ‘Collmenter can’t get through the lineup twice’ page, but trading him would be dumb … I just think he should stay in the pen. On the other hand, we don’t have any other options to start right now.

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