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By BRIAN BURKEThe numbers for my game prediction model aren’t always going to be perfect, so what I like to do is find out where the model differs most from the general consensus and then dig deeper to find out why. Looking over the game probabilities this week, one game stood out: tonight’s Steelers-Titans game. Pittsburgh is heavily favored by most experts, but surprisingly the model makes the Titans the favorite. Here are the stats that make up the inputs of the model. (YPA refers to passing yards per attempt, and SR refers to running Success Rate.)

Team

netYPA

Run SR

Int%

Fum%

D netYPA

D Run SR

D Int%

Pen Rate

PIT

6.4

33

0.6

3

5.9

51

0.8

0.71

TEN

6.1

35

2.5

2.4

7.4

55

1.6

0.41

Avg

6.4

40

2.6

2.1

6.4

58

2.5

0.44

The Steelers have not played like the successful versions of the recent past. Largely because of key injuries, their defense has been mediocre and has not been able to generate turnovers. Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful running the ball and stopping the run. Their success so far this season has come from a solid passing attack and a low turnover rate on offense.
In total, their fundamental statistics make them look like a fairly average team. What has been holding the Steelers back is their penalty rate. They have a league-worst rate of 0.7 penalty yards per play, while the league average is 0.4 yards per play.Team penalties are surprisingly consistent and correlate well with game outcomes in the N.F.L. After offensive passing efficiency, penalty rate is the second-most consistent efficiency stat. Pittsburgh’s exceptionally high rate is what drops them so low in the model’s team rankings.
Tennessee looks like a below-average team itself but has faced the second-toughest schedule to date. The deciding factor for the Titans in tonight’s game comes down to home-field advantage, which gives the Titans the edge, at least according to the efficiency model.
Intuitively I would expect the Steelers’ defensive turnover rates to regress upward toward their traditional levels, and no one would be surprised to see them back in the mix of top A.F.C. teams. But for now, I’ll have to let the numbers speak for themselves.
Here are the game probabilities for Week 6.

Pwin

GAME

Pwin

0.44

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

0.56

0.24

Oakland at Atlanta

0.76

0.48

Cincinnati at Cleveland

0.52

0.33

St. Louis at Miami

0.67

0.38

Indianapolis at Jets

0.62

0.38

Detroit at Philadelphia

0.62

0.48

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

0.52

0.41

Dallas at Baltimore

0.59

0.51

New England at Seattle

0.49

0.37

Buffalo at Arizona

0.63

0.22

Giants at San Francisco

0.78

0.53

Minnesota at Washington

0.47

0.24

Green Bay at Houston

0.76

0.65

Denver at San Diego

0.35

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, statistics and game theory.

Here, I was hoping that the refs would either lighten the hell up on my Steelers or, at the very least, start to flag the other team for their obvious penalties...it didn't happen Sunday, but I'm keeping hope alive...

If Colon weren't injured for the past 2 seasons, I'm sure he would be approaching the record for consecutive games with a holding penalty (like Brees surpassing Unitas for the consecutive games with a TD record). Unfortunately, the man he replaced at LG, Chris Kemoeatu, may hold that record.