Danger high voltage: 2010 Round 1 projections v2 (4/4)

Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield is one of a dozen Crows who have spent time on the injury list leading up to round 1.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

I complained in the v1 post about the difficulty of leaving out one of Eagleton, Ward, Hill and Picken. Now that Eagleton looks like he has recovered from the early-season knee surgery, the task is even tougher. Add to that the emergence of mature-aged rookie Moles and the move of Howard to the LTI list to make way for the likely-looking ex-Cat, and coach Rodney Eade has an embarrassment of riches to pick from. No wonder the Dogs are just about flag favourites.

Hahn has been tried as a tall defender in the preseason with some success, suggesting a more permanent move. I suspect, however, that this is merely insurance in case the oft-injured Williams goes down again. He returned to the forward line in his accustomed bullocking role this week, and I think he benefits the team more there anyway.

I didn’t want to do it. I had to pencil Leigh Brown in. Yes, Michael Malthouse is a crazy man. His latest half-cut babbling is that he wants to turn Rusling into a halfback. In your feverish, deranged dreams, Mick.

I’m not confident that both Beams and Sidebottom will play. The strongest arugment for them is that the Pies are going to try to break the record for home & away bench rotations, especially with Ball in the mix now, so younger legs going through midfield will be more important than old stagers like O’Bree or Johnson.

To listen to Docker fans, you’d think Freo had lost every NAB game by 15 goals. Thread after thread carping about poor preseasons by Ibbotson, Suban, Crowley, Schammer, Dodd, McPhee, Headland… the list of mediocre names goes on. Like the Fremantle list itself, actually.

Okay, so everyone wants to know what the deal will be with the Dockers’ multitudinous rookies who are demanding elevations with hot NAB form. We know that Fremantle have one automatic elevation slot for having only one veteran outside their list, plus Ruffles and Solomon have injuries long enough to be declared LTIs. Grover just about qualifies with his 6-8 week knee injury, and then there’s Thornton whose groin problems are chronic enough to make him an LTI candidate too. de Boer is assured one elevation spot, and even though Grover himself may not go on LTI, Silvagni must take another to cover for him on a list that is bereft of tall defender depth.

The two competitors for the third spot are Barlow and Pearce. I was watching Pearce’s games as much as Barlow’s during the NAB Cup and I thought Pearce’s numbers were inflated somewhat by cheapness that wouldn’t apply during the regular season, especially in the game against North where he sat at full back and took multiple +6 marks-and-kicks acting in the Joel Bowden role, switching to the winger on the fat side. His game on Saturday, on the other hand, was poor enough for some fans to write him off. Barlow is the well-deserved favourite for mine, and should be elevated into the Freo senior list… and onto the benches (if not starting) for thousands of fantasy squads.

Suban has certainly has a preseason to forget, going so badly as to make one wonder if he’s carrying an injury. Crowley and Schammer, meanwhile, may just be carrying a lack of skill. I don’t think coach Harvey has much of a choice with those two though, they have to play because the options aren’t any better. Ibbotson is the subject of much conjecture, with some questioning his commitment, though he seemd to do an okay job on Montagna in the NAB Cup semi-final. It does raise the question of whether Harvey can put Crowley, Ibbotson and de Boer in the one team if they’re all doing tagging roles, though it’s not unheard of.

I have some bad news for Phil Davis owners. Despite the Adelaide injury list going past a dozen, there still isn’t a place in the 22 for the kid. Your dreams of multipositional flexibility are going to have to rely on a different rookie. He’s not ready.

The SANFL is going to be fairly strong in round 1, I feel, because the recovery times of a lot of these injuries coincide with the opening game against Fremantle at Subiaco, but if I was Neil Craig I wouldn’t be risking the likes of the Birdman or the Porpoise on the hard turf of the west. Craig is such a stickler for fitness that I can see him risking the trip over the Nullarbor with a very understrength side, focusing on youth and pace instead of bigger bodies. Round 2 back at Footy Park against the Swans will merit a very different squad.

45 Comments

“Solomon have injuries long enough to be declared LTIs” Soley is retired. Silvagni starting and not even iffy? Are we sure? aren’t even Scully & Trengrove listed as iffy for Melbourne but Silvani just walks right in no worries? Nice post.

‘I am a idiot, Toodledock was right. I regret going after him stemming from a personal vendetta and in my pursuit I completely humiliated myself with my misinformation. I have learnt my lesson about speaking before thinking and will next time, stick to the comfort of insulting someone in a group’

hairydog84

March 9, 2010 at 12:24 pm

well said toodledock

ulahoopski

March 9, 2010 at 1:10 pm

Are you insane? There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that O’Bree won’t play round 1!! If you knew abything about Collingwood you’d know that O’Bree is almost always one of the first picked.

Just a note on the Dockers: they put Grover, Thornton, Ruffles and Solomon on the LTI list today. No word on elevations yet but that’s a pretty strong sign that they’re going to dip long and hard into the rookie list.

Arky

March 9, 2010 at 5:17 pm

Ok, with Grover LTI’d that guarantees half a season minimum for Silvagni. The only question, with the likes of Waters and Maguire for the back bench, is whether a key defender at rookie price is worth it. Those LTIs basically mean the entire rookie bench is being called… but whether all of them get games straight up is an open question.

O’Bree will play, don’t be daft. I haven’t paid that much attention to Collingwood, incidentally, but is Nathan Brown set to play for sure ahead of Reid? And really, still Leigh Brown? Geez they’ve got trouble.

I think the WB team is dead on. I would think Hahn is more at risk than Picken or Ward of dropping out, though, although it helps that Grant and Jones are still not ready for prime time.

reconfig

March 9, 2010 at 6:46 pm

Hey monty, not sure if you are aware but the dreamteam scores you have for the freo/saints game are different to those on afl.dreamteam.com.au

Danger_32

March 9, 2010 at 6:52 pm

Walker and Doughty iffy? Are you for real?
Do you really think with all those injuries in the forward line Walker would be iffy?
I’d love to know your thinking behind having 2 ruckmen on the Crows bench.
VB won’t play round 1 as there is talk of him possibly playing ressies for South Adelaide in round 1.
You can add Sellar to the injury list and Schmidt to the waiting list, he’ll probably be upgraded to the senior list and possibly play early on.

megawatt

March 9, 2010 at 7:16 pm

hey arky, sure, leigh brown is spudlike in fantasy, but he will kick 35 goals this year and crash some packs for magic, daisy, and medhurst to crumb. A vital, if not small, cog in the pies hunt for premiership glory. nathan brown, will play if fit everyweek, barr a few times due to matchups. agree that o’bree will play, still has another year of good footy left. ben reid will hopefully play 10 games, he is a star of 2012/2013. none mentioned should be on anyones fantasy radar really (except obviously medhurst, who is a lock)

gas_sam

March 9, 2010 at 7:28 pm

toodledock Says: 12:18 pm, March 9th, 2010

@Disco Dickbrain your next comment goes something like this

‘I am a idiot, Toodledock was right. I regret going after him stemming from a personal vendetta and in my pursuit I completely humiliated myself with my misinformation. I have learnt my lesson about speaking before thinking and will next time, stick to the comfort of insulting someone in a group’

HAHAHA sounds familar hey toodledock

pedro_0952

March 9, 2010 at 7:56 pm

How long till Birdman and Symes return Monty? Second round or longer?

chared

March 9, 2010 at 8:23 pm

Good call at last with you including Leigh Brown in the team! Agree with you that he is a spud but he will still play 20-25 games this year. Also as said before O’Bree will play round 1 unless he is injured!

Silvani is a better option than Davis, and my last bench spot, hopefully him and Barlow promoted

grum88

March 9, 2010 at 11:55 pm

Does Clancee Pearce have a shot round 1. Shown some good signs?

Disco DB

March 10, 2010 at 6:08 am

@toodledock – No need for profanities. Your point was poorly made.
Instead of whinging, how about you figure it out for yourself – a glance at the Freo depth chart will show a lack of depth in key defenders and that Silvani is next in line.

Arky

March 10, 2010 at 10:09 am

You know, after making a list of the rookies likely to have any kind of job security in the early season and growth prospects in same, they’re just about all mids.

Which back or forward rookie price guys are worth taking more than any of those guys? You can find a couple worth taking (Rockliff, Pods, maybe Silvagni, maybe Maguire) but not more than you need for a bench. It is a very very poor year for round 1 rookies outside the mids.

Bonez

March 10, 2010 at 4:09 pm

@reconfig/monty, I believe the DT scores on the Freo/Saints match are different here because they don’t include the tackles into the player’s scores.
Add in the tackles and it’ll be right Monty =)

Philnc

March 10, 2010 at 10:59 pm

I gotta laugh at people having a go at Monty about Freo’s team…. “Ibbotson & Suban should be in instead of Silvagni”. Who are you going to play them on??? Walker??? Tippet?? Its about team balance. Grover’s out injured so he MUST be replaced by a KPD.

bsfish

March 11, 2010 at 6:47 pm

Have to agree with Danger_32. Crows will not go in with two ruckmen on the bench. Van Berlo should be iffy at this stage for Round 1. Think should place Doughty is his spot and think petrenko pace would be used against fremantle in perth. Then also include sloane also on bench for one of the ruckman. But considering playing 22 in trial tommorrow that will tell us a lot more.

I don’t include rookies in the depth chart, but Disco DB’s point is well made. After McPharlin, Tarrant and Grover there’s only Roberton, who’s not ready. With Grover down, Silvagni is needed to provide cover, and will probably play early on the third forward.

Disco DB

March 12, 2010 at 7:33 am

@Prospector – Once again, the depth chart shows a lack of key defenders. A bit more research and you’re home. Took me 2 minutes, but if you just respect monty’s analysis and expertise, then you can save yourself 115 secs… it’s your decision.

SimonOz

March 12, 2010 at 7:46 am

That being said Disco…Silvani wasnt named for this weekend….and Harvey has said all week that barring any late minute setbacks and one or two niggles….the side this weekend has the final 22 in it.
I had the kid pegged as a D9 – highly doubtful now.

Disco DB

March 12, 2010 at 8:37 am

No worries @SimonOz, I’m just referring to monty’s view, whichs seems an option. Thing is, the only thing going for ‘vani is his price, as he’ll barely average 50 anyway, going by his pre-season avg.

Arky

March 12, 2010 at 9:33 am

Simon, where did Harvey say that?

de Boer is also out, not just Silvagni, and they’ve brought in a few rookies for their first games of the pre-season. Looks to me more like they’re resting a few rookies who played the first three pre-season games and taking the opportunity to give a taste to the rest of the squad. If the new guys in the squad do play, it will mean that Freo has given at least one pre-season game to every new player they drafted this season (rookies included).

If Silvagni doesn’t line up in round 1 then so be it, but I wouldn’t write him off because he isn’t playing this week.

And at his price, a 50 average will make you a fair amount of money.

SimonOz

March 12, 2010 at 10:06 am

Arky – have read it a few times over the last few days – sorry, no idea where – hard to recall 4 hrs of Fantasy Football studying….but he did say that this week would be highly likely to be as close to the final team as possible, and that if you werent playing then it would be hard to get in by Rd 1…..its why I was waiting for the squad…..Alas….maybe Disco is right and he’s giving the kids a rest & then play them a half next week…..I know he wont score much, but am just looking for a cheap as hell D9 and struggling…..

Dicko

March 12, 2010 at 5:04 pm

“he did say that this week would be highly likely to be as close to the final team as possible” I think this may have been said by Roos rather than Harvey.

Manikato1

March 13, 2010 at 12:19 am

Harvey siad this in the West Australian ealier this week (Mar 8)

“Mark Harvey will pick close to his best side when Fremantle take on reigning premiers Geelong in a NAB Challenge clash at Subiaco Oval on Saturday.

Harvey said while that could be difficult given the different pre-season workloads of the players, he wanted to give most of his best outfit one last hit-out before round one against Adelaide at Subiaco Oval on March 28.”

SimonOz

March 13, 2010 at 4:42 am

Yo-yos…..and now they say this – so who knows what the hell is going on:

Dockers football manager Chris Bond urged people not to read too much into their team, which were very much about match practice and player loadings.

Rookies Matt De Boer and Alex Silvagni, rested after playing every game in the pre-season, remain very much in the mix for round one berths and rookie elevations

Bartel

March 13, 2010 at 7:14 pm

I definitely think Sloane and Petrenko will play round 1. I think they will come in for Cook and Hentschel/McKernan/Griffin. I suspect Adelaide will give Burton significant time to come back, even though he has reportedly recovered quite quickly. For round 2 i think Porplyzia will be back (for Petrenko/Douglas) but i think Burton might not be back till round 3. I really think that Sloane will get a good run of 10 games this year with Reilly IMO most likely to be left out when Symes/Knights/Burton return, depending on how well he settles into the tagging role.

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