Monday, September 12, 2011

While most of
the season has provided little redeeming quality for Twins fans, there remains at
least one positive take away from this horrific year of baseball in Minnesota:
a top five draft pick in 2012.

The
unfortunate flipside to that is that this upcoming draft class does not have a
Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, players who are expected to have a
substantial and immediate impact for their team. In fact, as ESPN.com’s
prospect guru Keith Law notes, the next draft class might be one of the
thinnest in years.

Right now, many
mock draft sites are projecting Stanford’s six-foot-four right-handed starter Mark Appel as the likely number one
overall pick in 2012. Unlike the aforementioned Strasburg, Appel does not have
the gaudy strikeout totals. Whereas Strasburg maintained strikeout rates well
above the 12.0 K/9 mark, Appel has hovered around the 7.0 K/9 mark thus far in
his colligate career. Even the Twins more recent high draft picks such as Alex
Wimmers and Kyle Gibson held strikeout rates above 10.0 in their college
careers. To fans who have grown tired of pitch-to-contact types the organization
has selected, Appel’s selection would likely disappoint.

Still, the
lanky-built Appel tosses mid-90’s two-seam fastballs (but was hitting 99 in the
spring) and a solid slider that has impressed scouts. Allan Simpson, founder of
Baseball America, ranked Appel as the
top pitcher in the prestigious Cape Cod League this past summer as he
struck out 15 and walked just one in 12 innings of work. In the video clip of
him, you will see a long-arm action, a fastball that runs at the last minute
and a sharp slider that drops off the table fairly quick:

Another arm
that is mentioned within the top five regularly is high school phenom Lucas Giolito. Giolito, a senior at
North Hollywood Harvard-Westlake (CA), is a six-foot-six, 220 pounds beast and
the teenaged right-hander throws 94 while
touching 96.3 during the Area Code Games - the midsummer showcase for the nation’s
top high school talent.

While the
fastball has plenty of life and his 12-to-6 curveball is respectable (he hooks
his hand just a bit in the clips potentially giving away the pitch), his deliberate
and plodding mechanics could use some polishing. Although they are very
repeatable, similar to Kyle Gibson’s mechanics, Giolito has some wasted motion
as he lifts his leg and then lowers it almost straight down before driving
forward. Engaging his legs more in his delivery would take some pressure off of
his arm.

Across the
country from Giolito in Tampa, Florida is another touted prep arm in Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers Jr - a
six-foot-two, 200 pound righty - had shown a 97 miles-an-hour as a 16 year old
and was recently gunned at a Perfect
Game event this past August at 100 miles-an-hour.

The problem
with McCullers Jr, who currently attends the same high school that the Twins
drafted Brad Radke from and is the son of former major league pitcher Lance
McCullers, is that although he clearly has a power arm he also has some bumpy
mechanics . More specifically, he struggles with landing
his front foot consistently which translates into control issues. Because
of this, you have to wonder if he would wind up more of a project in the minors
with a risk of following the same path as 2008 draft pick, Shooter Hunt.

Meanwhile, in
terms of offense, Arizona State shortstop Deven
Marrero seems to be the best available among position players. This past
draft, the Twins selected North Carolina infielder Levi Michael who, by most metrics, was a slightly better hitter
than Marrero.

“He’s the
best defensive player I’ve ever seen at 19, 20 years of age. Walt Weiss was
pretty darn good, but this young man –I’ve never seen anybody who could get his
feet in the right position almost all the time. If for any reason he doesn’t
get his feet in the right position, he has the ability to get his hands in the
right place, and understand the speed of the runner. I think he’s Omar Vizquel
at 20.”

So even
though the Twins drafted a shortstop this season (and two more within the first
ten rounds), because of the system’s lack of true shortstop talent combined
with this
year’s defensive ineptitude, targeting someone like Marrero - who has shown
high caliber play at the position - makes plenty of sense.

Another position
that the Twins have a need within the system is at catcher. Certainly, with Joe
Mauer signed through, you know, infinity, there isn’t a pressing need yet we
witnessed the glaring hole created when he was hurt and unable to catch, so the
front office should be considering some insurance policy. Florida’s Mike Zunino might be that kind of option.
Armed with plenty of pop (19 home runs and a .674 slugging percentage in 2011),
if Mauer ever needs to move on a more permanent basis to another position in
the next few years, having someone like Zunino ready in 2014 or 2015 may help
ease the transition.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."