Turlock Republican Jeff Denham targeted in shutdown

The liberal advocacy group Americans United for Change, first established to fend off former President George W. Bush’s Social Security privatization drive, announced ad campaigns against 10 Republicans in swing districts, including Turlock Republican Jeff Denham.

The ads follow Monday’s Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by the liberal MoveOn.org showing 24 House Republicans suffering political damage from the partial government shutdown, including three swing-district Californians, one of whom was Denham. The others were Reps. David Valadao of Hanford (Kings County) and Gary Miller of Rancho Cucamonga (San Bernardino County).

The survey attempts to counter conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach of Democrats, who need to gain 17 seats in November 2014 to regain a majority and reinstate San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

The survey showed GOP incumbents trailing among registered voters in head-to-head contests against generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. That’s a far cry from a real contest against an actual candidate, but could be telling if public opinion shifts sharply against Republicans during the shutdown standoff. So far, Republicans are taking most of the heat, but the pox is also shared to a lesser extent by congressional Democrats and President Obama.