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Oct. 27 — A new generation of leaders may be ready to take the gavels at many Senate committees
in the 115th Congress if Democrats reclaim the chamber in the Nov. 8 election.

While senior lawmakers are expected to exert control over many A-list committees,
a number of Democratic senators elected in the last decade are likely to be elevated
to chairmanship posts at other panels for the first time if their party picks up enough
seats to reclaim majority status.

The combination of election wins and retirements could result in a strikingly different
lineup of committee chairs than that seen when Democrats controlled the chamber only
two years ago. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Claire McCaskill
(D-Mo.) all are among the less senior lawmakers who may control panels in the new
Congress.

A new roster of committee chairs would be expected to help incoming Senate Democratic
Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) push the legislative priorities of Democratic presidential
nominee Hillary Clinton if she is elected to the White House. Both Democrats and Republicans
are expected to make decisions about their new committee lineups soon after lawmakers
return the week of Nov. 15 for organizational meetings.

“You’re going to have a lot of people who are going to be learning both the power
and the limitations of these committees,” Israel Klein, a former Schumer aide, said.
“There are people who are going to have a lot of pent-up desire to get things done.”

Retirements Also Spur Change

Democrats need to pick up a minimum of four seats in the election to control the chamber,
so long as Clinton defeats Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, which would
give Vice President Tim Kaine a tie-breaking vote as senate president. Democrats are
said to be in good position to pick up five to seven seats in the election.

But a Clinton victory also could cause more changes in the Senate, beginning with
the departure of Sen. Kaine (D-Va.), who was elected in 2012.

“There’s also the possibility that some senators could be selected to serve in a Clinton
administration,” said Klein, who recently prepared
an analysis of the likely committee leaders.

Other changes already in the works will make room for less senior lawmakers to move
up the ladder. Among others, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Sen. Barbara
Mikulski (D-Md.), vice chair of the Appropriations Committee, are retiring at year’s
end.

“Besides Appropriations, there are more than another half-dozen committees where there
could be senators in new chairmanships,” said David Morgenstern, a principal at Podesta
Group who previously worked for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), a senior appropriator.

Morgenstern said the potential chairs are not necessarily junior members who came
only recently to the Senate.

“But many have not had the chance to chair full committees previously,” he said.

Both Klein and Morgenstern said they expect Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) to reclaim the
chairmanship of the Finance Committee if Democrats regain control. Sen. Bill Nelson
(D-Fla.) also is seen as likely to move from ranking member to chair of the Commerce,
Science and Transportation Committee. Similarly, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) is
expected to move from ranking member to chair of the Energy and Natural Resources
Committee, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) from ranking member to chair of the
Intelligence Committee. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is also seen as having the
option to move from ranking to the chair of Agriculture.

Mikulski’s departure is setting off intense speculation over who will lead Appropriations
if Democrats take control. While Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) is most senior on the
panel, Klein and others said he is more interested in continuing as the top Democrat
on the Judiciary Committee to oversee the filling of vacancies at the Supreme Court.
Many observers also said they believe Feinstein would pass on the job.

Instead, the prime candidates are Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.),
who also are currently vying for the leadership post of Democratic whip.

Klein said even Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) could have a shot
at the job.

“There are so many permutations, and that’s why we go three deep at these committees,”
Klein said.

Klein said other variables include whether Murray would prefer to chair the Health,
Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee or might be tapped to serve as Clinton’s
secretary of Health and Human Services.

If Murray gave up the chance to chair HELP, where she now serves as ranking member,
that may clear the way for Sanders to head the panel. If, in the alternative, Sanders
wanted to reclaim the gavel of the Budget Committee, Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), in office
since 2007, would be in line to chair HELP, Klein said.

The Armed Services Committee also would have a new chairman if Democrats retook the
Senate, with Reed in line for the post. But, Klein said, that post could go to others
if Reed was nominated to serve as secretary of defense.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) is expected to move into the chair of the Foreign Relations
Committee while Brown takes the helm at the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee,
Klein said. Both lawmakers came to the Senate in 2007.

Klein downplayed speculation that Democratic leaders might elevate former Sen. Evan
Bayh (D-Ind.) to the Banking chairmanship if he regains his seat this year.

“I don’t think there is any serious consideration they would displace Sherrod Brown
for Evan Bayh,” Klein said. “It’s just not part of reality.”

New EPW, Homeland Chairs

The retirement of Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Barbara Boxer
(D-Calif.) also is creating an opportunity for Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) to claim the
gavel at that committee.

Klein and Morgenstern said Carper’s move to chair that panel then would leave open
the top Democratic slot at the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
McCaskill is in line to take that job.

Similarly, Tester is in line to chair the Indian Affairs Committee, a key panel for
his home state of Montana, they said.

Some lawmakers who arrived in the Senate in 2009 or even later also may chair committees
next year. They include Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who is in line to lead the Small
Business Committee, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who is the senior Democrat
on the Veterans Affairs Committee.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nancy Ognanovich in Washington at
nognanov@bna.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Hendrie at
phendrie@bna.com

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