Analyze This: With playoffs a pipe dream, Canadiens should look to the futureBack to video

In other words, for the Canadiens to qualify for the playoffs they’d have to win 29 or 30 of their remaining 42 games. Considering they’ve only managed to win 16 of the first 40, a .700 win percentage the rest of the season is essentially a pipe dream.

Admittedly, Canadiens are in an unenviable position. They’re not good enough to compete, and they’re not quite bad enough to earn a top three pick in the draft.

But it may not be time to burn it all to the ground, either. When we take a look at the forward group, many of the players are just about, or yet to hit their prime. Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen, Charles Hudon and Phillip Danault are all under 25, whereas Brendan Gallagher and Daniel Carr are just entering the prime of their careers.

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Things aren’t exactly bleak up front, but the defensive group is basically the polar opposite of encouraging. Five of the six regular defencemen this year will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time the season is done, which indicates that the Canadiens have no choice but to retool their defence.

From here to the trade deadline, the focus should be put on determining which players should be traded for prospects and draft picks. There’s no rush to make a deal, the season isn’t salvageable. We’ve already heard Max Pacioretty’s name mentioned by several reputable sources as a trade piece, which makes sense given that he’s on the second-to-last year of a very friendly contract with a cap hit of $4.5 million per year.

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If we ignore recency bias, which paints a less than favourable picture of the American forward, we have to acknowledge that Pacioretty, 29, is one of the best goal scorers in the NHL over the last five years. Only Alex Ovechkin has more even-strength goals than Pacioretty since 2011.

From 2011 to 2017, Pacioretty was involved in almost 30 per cent of the Canadiens’ goals. He personally scored more than 15 per cent of the team’s total goals over that time.

Simply put, he’s been one of this franchise’s most important players for the past several years, and the inconvenient truth is that the Canadiens wasted the prime of one of their best goal scorers in modern team history, especially if we consider that he was never given a true No. 1 centre to play with.

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Despite his lack of scoring this year, which is partially explained by the lack of puck-moving defencemen on the roster, Pacioretty should fetch a very good price at the deadline. It’s rare that a player of his ilk is available, and even more so that said player is on an affordable contract. Stanley Cup contenders that have legitimate No. 1 centres and quality puck-moving defencemen should be lining up to acquire such a talented goal-scorer.

Acquiring first-round picks as well as blue-chip prospects should be the standing order for the franchise. A lateral deal wouldn’t improve the organization. Rearranging the deck chairs simply won’t do it.

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However, if you consider trading your best goal scorer, you have no choice but to consider trading your best defenceman, who happens to be 32 years old. Shea Weber is a quality defenceman, but his stock is rapidly falling. The best bet would be to get a return on that declining asset as soon as possible, with the added bonus of removing his bloated contract from the books.

As for Carey Price, who is the third pillar of the Canadiens franchise, you could probably fetch a very good return for him given that he’s perceived to be the best goalie in the world. But unlike forwards or defencemen, elite goalies tend to decline at a slower rate — so even at the age of 30, he should prove valuable for many years to come.

In any case, the signs are pointing to necessary changes for the Canadiens, but as we’ve seen with the Edmonton Oilers and many franchises before them, a rebuild is not a guaranteed path to success. A surgical retool may be the better route.

That being said, a fresh approach and a legitimate long-term plan as to how construct the roster is probably the most necessary change for the Canadiens at the moment, and that starts at the very top of the organization.

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