Donate

Archive for July, 2010

Report Predicts Democrats Will Not Capture a Single Legislative Chamber; Republicans Will Take Four With 12 More ‘In Play’

ALEXANDRIA, VA – The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), through its REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP), announced the launch, today, of the first REDMAP Report, a state-by-state breakdown that explores the Republicans’ path to success in 2010 state legislative races. The report finds that, as of today, not only will Democrats not take control of a single state legislative chamber in 2010, Republicans will pick up at least four chambers with another 12 Democratically controlled chambers in play.

“There is little doubt that the political landscape continues to favor Republicans at all levels this election cycle. Voters are looking to Republicans who will move their states in a direction of smaller government and less spending and who will protect them from what is becoming the repeated Democrat over-reach,” said RSLC Chairman Ed Gillespie. “This report spells out how fragile Democrat majorities will quickly turn into Republican-led chambers resulting in common sense conservative policies.”

The report predicts Republicans will hold chambers such as the Texas House and Michigan Senate and will definitely pick up the Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana Houses and the Wisconsin Senate. Of the remaining 12 legislative chambers that are in play, if Republicans pick up only half, it will result in a net gain of 10 legislative chambers in states that are key for congressional redistricting.

“The Republican Party has an opportunity to impact the redrawing of dozens of congressional districts across the country following this election cycle,” said Tom Reynolds, Vice Chair of the RSLC and head of REDMAP. “In the end, we will see an effect that lasts for the next decade.”

According to National Public Radio’s June report, 33 of the 75 most competitive congressional districts are located in REDMAP targeted states this year. If REDMAP achieves its goals, nearly half of the traditionally swing congressional districts will be redrawn by Republicans before the 2012 election cycle. The remaining seats will either be subject to Democrat control or part of a partisan-neutral redistricting process.

“This year will not be a typical election cycle in terms of shift in partisan control,” the report concludes. “As of today, it appears that 2010 will be more successful for Republicans than 1982 was for the Democrats and could even rival the Republican successes seen on the state level in 1994.”

The RSLC is the largest caucus of Republican state leaders and the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot, state-level Republican office-holders. Since 2002, the RSLC has been working to elect candidates for the office of attorney general, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and state legislator. The RSLC consistently raises and spends an average of more than $20 million, per two-year cycle, from more than 80,000 donors and from all 50 states. In February, The RSLC announced the creation of REDMAP which is on pace to raise record amounts dedicated to winning seats and legislative majorities that will critically impact redistricting in 2011.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende writes, “Four months out from Election Day, the Democrats will probably lose the House and are in some danger of losing the Senate. But losing those legislative bodies would not be the most damaging aspect of the impending tsunami heading toward the Democratic Party. … These losses are likely to be massive, and illustrate the size of the impending voter revolt. And they could not come at a worse time. Combined with likely statehouse gains, they threaten to put Republicans in charge of redistricting for the first time in several generations, and will potentially provide the GOP with a top-tier crop of Presidential hopefuls in the future.”

The inaugural “State Race Spotlight” for Townhall.com begins, “Every decade the U.S. Congress plays musical chairs to the tune of the Census population counts – only in this re-apportionment version, the number of chairs stays the same, they just move to different states. By the time the counting (but not the arguing) is done in 2011, Texas looks to gain at least 3 additional seats in its Congressional delegation, thanks to strong population growth that has held up even as the recession has slowed growth in other formerly booming states. … In the Texas statehouse, the stakes are even higher, as the district boundaries will shift to reflect the growth at the suburban edges of Texas’ major cities. This will not be a quiet debate, as several rural incumbents could find themselves in a showdown with another incumbent for a consolidated district, while incumbents in the booming areas could find themselves living outside of their districts.”

“National party leaders are raising hundreds of millions for a high-stakes redistricting war that will define the political playing field for the next decade,” National Journal reports. Voters typically ignore redistricting, the complex, often secretive process of redrawing the legislative and congressional district lines after the decennial census. But this year, redistricting is almost hot. GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.”

“If Republicans pick up just three seats in the 203-member Pennsylvania House of Representatives in the November election, it could bring sweeping policy changes to a state that can’t seem to make up its mind whether it wants to be blue or red,” reports The Associated Press. “The campaign news this summer has focused on the two high-profile races for governor and U.S. Senate, but the outcome of legislative races could largely determine what the state does about its multibillion-dollar budget shortfall, the funding crisis for public-sector pensions and redistricting — not to mention the thousands of bills lawmakers will introduce over the coming two-year session.”

“This is about trying to take back the majority in the state House of Representatives,” reports Delaware’s Dover Post. “The 2010 election could be the last one for a long time to give the Republicans a chance to reclaim the House. The next session of the General Assembly is responsible for redistricting — the redrawing of the districts every 10 years to keep them equal in population — and Democratic majorities in both chambers could map with premeditated malice and get away with it. … Enough seats are in play for the Republicans conceivably to make a run at the majority.”

“About 110 people, including Democratic leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, are on the ‘Enemies of Reform’ list released Thursday by New York Uprising, a non-partisan coalition led by former New York City Mayor Ed Koch. The group received signed pledges from 240 candidates who agreed to work for non-partisan, independent redistricting, an independent budget office and additional improvements to the budget process, and stronger ethics laws. All 29 Senate Republicans are on board, even those who are not running for re-election.”

“Bravo Corpus Christi-area residents,” the Corpus Christi Caller editorializes, “for a healthy turnout at Wednesday’s state hearing on redistricting. The City Council chambers seating was packed. The consensus concept that emerged from the comments was that state House, Senate and congressional districts should encompass ‘communities of interest.’”

The Sacramento Bee reports, “The pool of potential members for the state’s legislative redistricting commission has been narrowed to 120 applicants, who will undergo personal interviews. An ‘applicant review panel’ convened by the state auditor’s office — as decreed by Proposition 11, passed by voters in 2008 — winnowed the pool down to 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 40 independents who appear to roughly mirror the cultural makeup of the state’s population.”

Frank Hannon opines, “The minute the Census of 2010 becomes official and is on the Internet, you can bet 133 New Jersey residents will be analyzing the results. Included in the group will be 13 sitting congressmen and 120 New Jersey legislators. With the census comes mandatory redistricting of both congressional and state legislative districts. There is not much public interest in the once-every-decade process but to New Jersey congressmen, state senators, and assembly members it is the 800-pound gorilla that can make or break them.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown. This addition is a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). For those who are new, this weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Translating legislative control, Dems learning the difference between 10 and 12, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RGA friends weigh in on a lasting majority, CSM sees a mad scramble, Iowa dealing with loss and Massachusetts is “home” of the gerrymander.

The Washington Post’s Lois Romano kicks off today’s Rundown, reporting, “As the Beltway remains riveted on November’s congressional midterm elections, another political war is taking shape in small communities nationwide … The reason: Next year, state legislatures will take up redistricting, the once-a-decade task of redrawing congressional boundaries based on population shifts gleaned through the census. Some of the biggest names in politics have jumped into the hand-to-hand combat with an intensity generally reserved for a presidential race. Among those at the forefront: Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee; former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.); Democratic strategist Harold Ickes; GOP strategist Karl Rove; and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … ‘Having control of a legislature can translate into U.S. House seats being drawn for Republicans for a decade — compared to fighting it out district by district for control of the House every two years, which would costs millions,’ said Gillespie, who is chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.”

“A Democrat who can win in 2010 can be assumed to have a relatively safe district, just as a Republican who won in 2006 and ’08 can,” James Taranto writes for the Wall Street Journal. In 2012, however, 428 of the 435 congressional districts will have been redrawn owing to reapportionment and redistricting (the only exceptions are those that are coterminous with sparsely populated states). Many incumbents will be protected, but some will find themselves in less-safe districts, or in intraparty battles with fellow incumbents in states that lose congressional seats.

Larry Sabato enters Politico’s Arena, saying, “Once lost, the House will be tough to regain during Obama’s presidency. Redistricting is going to help the GOP at least marginally, given the number of governorships and state legislative berths it will add this November.”

The Washington Post reports, “… by January, more than half of the states will probably be under new management, including some of the biggest and most important. … One of the first areas where the changes in the governors’ mansions could be felt will be in the redistricting wars that will break out next year. [RGA Executive Director Nick] Ayers said redistricting presents an opportunity to gain 15 to 26 House seats, depending on who controls the redistricting machinery in the states. That alone could offset whatever happens in House races this November. But the implications go beyond that. Reapportionment and redistricting will affect the shape of the House through much of the coming decade. If Republicans take over the House in November and control enough governorships [and state legislatures] in key states next year, they could use the redistricting process to virtually lock in a majority that could last for several election cycles.”

“All eyes are on the US House in this fall’s election, but that’s not the only place where a political earthquake might shake up power,” according to the Christian Science Monitor’s editorial board. “A mad scramble is also on to influence elections for state legislatures, as well as governors. National political bigwigs and big dollars – record amounts, actually – are focused on these local races. The reason? This is a census year, and it is these newly elected officials who will use the new population numbers to redraw the boundaries of voter districts. Those districts will then set the contours of power and policy for the next decade. Republicans see the opportunity for a long-lasting comeback in Washington if they can tip enough statehouses their way, and thus come up with voter districts likely to elect Republicans to Congress again and again. Likewise, Democrats are working hard to defend their mapping turf.”

“Lawmakers in Iowa are about to launch their most overtly partisan chore: the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts. Every 10 years after the census is conducted, the Legislature must approve new congressional and legislative district lines reflecting changes in population, and the configuration of those lines dictates the politics of a state for the next decade. The task will be especially tricky because Iowa is among at least nine states likely to lose a seat in Congress. That means two of the current five are likely to be paired in a new district.”

MA Republican state committeewoman Cynthia E. Stead, writes, “Massachusetts, the home of the Gerry-mander, will begin its process in April 2011, when the apportionment of Congressional seats is announced after the 2010 census results are processed. Back in 2001, the Joint Redistricting Report said, ‘Lastly, some districts have been combined and new districts have been created. This is necessitated by the extraordinary growth in outer-suburban areas, the decrease in population in certain older urban areas, and the stagnant population in a number of developed suburbs. …That is where people have been moving. This proposal acknowledges that ours is an ever-changing Commonwealth. But as urban Democrats lose their strongholds, gerrymanders may become necessary.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here

It’s impossible to say exactly how much political players and organizers will spend on redistricting, partly because many nonparty groups driving the process face minimal disclosure requirements. But some estimates put redistricting-related expenditures — for legislative and gubernatorial campaigns, data analysis, map-drawing and court fights — at $200 million or more.

As usual, Democratic Party leaders are getting a big assist from labor-backed groups and loosely regulated outside organizations, including the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, which is largely exempt from any reporting rules. The group recently won approval from the Federal Election Commission to collect soft (unregulated) money with the help of federal candidates and officeholders. Reform advocates had objected that this violates the 2002 soft money ban.

GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.

About 300 Californians remain from the 30,000 who answered the call to join a citizens’ panel to take over the job of drawing the borders of the districts making up the political landscape of the state.

Six of the remaining applicants live in San Joaquin County. Some of them are surprised they made it this far, and all five reached by The Record say they realize they have a long way to go if they are going to be one of the 14 members of the first Citizens Redistricting Commission, authorized when voters approved Proposition 11, the Voters First Act, in 2008.

It’s been challenging, dynamic and interesting to be a part of the process so far, said Joan Matthews of Tracy. She was a trustee when San Joaquin Delta College redrew its district lines, and she’s been reading up in case she does go the distance. “I’m curious to how things work. I like to see things operate. … I would look forward to the challenge,” said Matthews, 74 and an owner of the Tracy Press.