It's the American people, stupid

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President Bush stands on stage as daughters Jenna, left, and Barbara applaud at his victory rally.Photo: AP

The American people have for the first time decisively endorsed
George Bush, handing him an explicit affirmation for America's most
controversial war since Vietnam and a mandate to press ahead with
strident foreign policy.

The President lost the popular vote in the 2000 election by half
a million votes and suffered from questions about his legitimacy,
but has now won it by about 3 million to 4 million votes. The
result gives him over 50 per cent of all votes cast, a feat his
predecessor Bill Clinton never achieved.

If his dominance of the popular vote is validated by a victory
in the Electoral College, the Republicans will be in a commanding
position, cementing control of the White House as well as both
houses of Congress.

One of America's leading conservative intellectuals, Professor
Francis Fukuyama, said Mr Bush's victory foreshadowed an
increasingly tense relationship for the US and the world.

"This is very important internationally. People will say that
its not George Bush that's the problem, its the American people
that's the problem."

International antagonism to US foreign policy had, up until now,
centred on the Bush Administration, while sentiment towards the
American people was more benign. But Mr Bush's return will entrench
world opinion against the US as whole.

And US foreign policy will be tested almost immediately with the
advent of an immensely difficult and dangerous new nuclear crisis,
in Iran.

According to polling expert Carroll Doherty, editor of polling
at the Pew Research Centre, this election was decided on the issue
of terrorism: "If Bush wins, it will be because of 9/11."

Like many experts, Professor Fukuyama predicts that Mr Bush will
pursue his existing foreign policy with new energy if given a
second term.

Bush foreign policy is defined by three distinctive doctrines:
pre-emption, unilateralism, hegemony - all of which assert US power
and interests above all else. Or, as Professor John Lewis Gaddis,
of Yale's history department, has put it: "In this new game there
are no rules."

Professor Fukuyama said: "I don't see much evidence that Bush is
a reflective guy. I'm afraid there will not be much rethinking at
all. Re-elected, he will say: 'They approve of what I'm doing -
let's keep going.' "

A senior official in the Bush Administration confirmed this
interpretation last night: "As disappointing as Iraq has been, it
in no way, shape or form changes the basic mindset and vision of
the President.

"Some will call it arrogant; others would call it brutally
strong. It's what he took on the campaign trail, and it's what he
took to the people."

If elected, Mr Bush will have in domestic affairs unchecked
power to make vital long-term appointments without risk of a Senate
challenge.

His party controls the house with what appears to be an enlarged
majority of 54 seats.

This will allow Mr Bush to choose freely the next appointment to
the already conservative-dominated Supreme Court and the next
chairman of the Federal Reserve, when Alan Greenspan retires in
2006.

But the most urgent and dangerous challenges are in foreign
policy.

On November 25 the International Atomic Energy Agency will
decide whether to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for failing
to meet guidelines against nuclear proliferation.

George Perkovich, who is vice-president at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Washington and an expert on
Iran, believes "Iran will absolutely be the first crisis".

"It will be the biggest issue of the next year. And the first
problem for the Bush Administration is that it does not have a
policy on Iran," he said. "They have tried to get an Iran policy
... but they haven't been able because the Administration is
split.

"The Vice-President, Dick Cheney, believes we just do not deal
with governments we don't like, with governments that are evil.
Others in the Administration say that we have to deal with them
because, like them or not, they are the Government and we have no
choice."

Mr Bush has supported the work of three European powers -
Germany, France and Britain - to negotiate a deal to stop Iran's
uranium enrichment program.

No deal has been reached so far and, according to Mr Perkovich,
the US needs to work with Europe and Iran to find a solution. But
Mr Cheney "can't bring themselves to do what's necessary", he
said.

Temptations were there for an armed solution, "but even Paul
Wolfowitz [Deputy Secretary of Defence and advocate of the Iraq
invasion] has said that there are no good military options in
Iran".

The slow-burning crisis in North Korea will also continue to
unfold. Here, the US is working with others, including North Korea,
in a six-nation negotiating group in an effort to halt Pyongyang's
nuclear program.

The economy presents pitfalls too. There is international unease
over the deficit in the US Federal Budget and the deficit in the
current account.

Two highly respected US economists, Ken Rogoff and Professor
Maurice Obstfeld, wrote this week that the current account deficit
should be problem number one and warned of financial crises, higher
interests rates and a big drop in global output.

Mr Bush has promised to halve the Federal deficit but has no
specific plan to do so.

All of which recalls Winston Churchill: "The problems of victory
are more agreeable than those of defeat, but they are no less
difficult."