000
ACUS01 KWNS 021959
SWODY1
SPC AC 021957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND LOWER
MI...AS WELL AS FAR NRN IL AND IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA INTO NRN OH AND
MI...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS IOWA
INTO NEBRASKA.
...WI...LOWER MI...NRN IL AND INDIANA...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
WI INTO NRN MI WITH A MIXTURE OF CELLS AND A LARGER-SCALE BOW
DEVELOPING. THE LEADING BOW NOW OVER NRN LAKE MI SHOULD CONTINUE
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MI...AND BACK-BUILD SWWD INTO ERN WI.
HERE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
EVENTUAL MERGERS OCCUR. PRIOR TO THE MERGERS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BECOME
DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A FEW
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1586 AND 1587.
..JEWELL.. 08/02/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015/
...GREAT LAKES REGION...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO OUTLOOK.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO INTO MN. STRONG
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED /MOSTLY ELEVATED/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR NOW...BUT STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
MORE LINEAR MCS/S THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WI AND LOWER MI BEFORE
POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IL/IND/OH TONIGHT. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
RISK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN POSITION OF ENH RISK AREA FOR NOW AND
RE-EVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES.