Friday, November 14, 2008

A developing South to SW flow of milder air has moved into the region due to WAA. Low pressure and plenty of GOM Moisture is now effecting parts of the Tennessee Valley and SE States today, as a weak wave of low pressure develops near the Tennessee Valley. This wave of low pressure, and precipitation is now building ahead of a very strong cold front now in the Midwest. As this cold front pushes east and southeast and approaches our area tomorrow, a very mild and moist flow will move NE, ahead of and along this cold front. Rain will begin to move into the areas later this evening and into the overnight, along with mild conditions. Temps tonight will remain in the 50's. On Saturday we can expect periods of rain, which could be heavy at times during the morning hours. A few thunderstorms can also be expected. A break in the rain is likely near mid-day tomorrow. As the cold front moves through tomorrow night, a nice band of moderate to heavy rain and possible thunderstorms will setup during the late afternoon and evening hours. So overall, I expect, anywhere from .50" to 1.50" with this event later tonight into Saturday Evening. Some areas could see 1.50" to 2.00" in any thunderstorm activity.

The big changes begin on Sunday, as our Cold front sweeps offshore and a strong NW flow of colder air rushes in behind this front. P.Sunny skies with windy conditions(15 to 30 MPH and gusty) and temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's can be expected for Sunday.

Next Week: Monday 11/17 through Friday 11/21

A cold week with below normal temps will be the rule, as an H5 trough settles in for much of the Eastern CONUS. For the Delaware Valley, this will be the coldest air mass of the season. In addition some flurries and snow showers are likely for later Tuesday into Wednesday, as the LES (Lake effect snow) machine kicks in with strong CAA(Cold Air Advection) on strong NW winds.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the atmosphere will become especially unstable during the afternoon and early evening hours, due to cold air aloft and increased lapse rates. So I expect some flurries and snow shower along with highs in the low to mid 40's and low's in the Upper 20's to low 30's for both days.

Later Tuesday into Wednesday an area of low pressure will develop off the M/A and New England Coasts. There's some concern of a norlun type trough signature in this setup. This means the low will stretch out and the southern end can extend some light precip further west of the low. Some models are showing this signature and this could actually pose a threat for some periods of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, this from NJ into Coastal New England. This needs to be watched and I'll elaborate more on this possibility as we get closer to this time frame.

Another cold front with a clipper will move through for later Thursday and Friday. Temps will be in the low to mid 40's on Thursday, but drop Highs to the Upper 30's and lower 40's behind the front on Friday ! This will also be associated with some scattered flurries and snow showers, along with blustery conditions.Have a great weekend !Ruggie

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Forecaster: John Ruggiano

AKA: Ruggie (RUGGIE WEATHER)

INTRODUCTION AND BIO

My name is John Ruggiano and I now live in Lynchburg, VA . I was born and raised in the Southern NJ Region, other than living in Lynchburg, Va for 10 years, I've lived in Southern NJ most of my life. I first took an interest in weather at a young age, (6 Years Old) and ever since then, it's basically became a big part of my life. My interest became so great that by the time I was around 10 years old I was doing the weather in front of my grade school class and on the school's intercom each morning. In High School I had my own weather board, and everyone, including my teachers called me the school weatherman, thus "RUGGIE WEATHER" became my new name. Over the years, I've had several newspaper articles done on me, along with many visits, and radio broadcasts, with the PHL & ACY National Weather Service's. I've really started forecasting during my teenage years, but now with the information at hand, and the internet technology, My forecasting, both short and long range, has accelerated to a new level.

MY WEATHER BACKGROUND

I've been forecasting weather for over 30 Years and I'm especially familiar with the Climate of "The Delaware Valley". During the past 15 years, I've taken on more challenging tasks, such as Mid and Long range Winter forecasting, along with more Regional predictions of Winter Events, for the Eastern half of the nation. This has all been very exciting, and I've met, and talked with many Professional Meteorologist, and weather Hobbyist like myself. I'm basically a self taught forecaster who has studied the science by reading books and material's too increase my knowledge, along with many years of experience, by trial and error. I am not a Meteorologist with a degree, but I do consider my self a: "Forecaster or Amateur Meteorologist"

IN CLOSING

I will continue to challenge myself to better my forecasting, both in mid and long Range winter forecasting, with winter forecasting, IMO being my specialty. I'll also continue to challenge myself with predicting and studying Severe Weather threats such as Spring and Summer Thunderstorms. In addition, following and tracking hurricane's is something I've always enjoyed doing, so during Hurricane season, I hope to also do some write up's. If you have any comments or questions, please contact me at: Ruggieweather@gmail.com