Headlines

An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions.
Read More

The Columbus metro area’s diversified economy is among the most successful in Ohio. In the first quarter of 2018, the local unemployment rate fell to nearly its lowest point on record, employment growth continued and most industry sectors added jobs, home prices and residential building permit issuance continued to rise, and consumer debt and the credit card delinquency rate remained stable.
Read More

Measures of real per capita gross domestic product and per capita income rose slightly in 2016, but though the unemployment rate has fallen, the decline was driven by a decrease in the labor force. Consumer debt per capita fell slightly, but credit card delinquency rates are on the rise. Home prices grew 7.7 percent between March 2017 and March 2018, but permits for new housing have stabilized.
Read More