Dan Feldman

Detroit Free Press Special Writer

Georgia's Kentavious Caldwell-Pope pumps up the crowd up after hitting a three-pointer against Kentucky on March 7, 2013. / MCT

UNLV's Anthony Bennett reacts after hitting a three-pointer against Boise State on March 5, 2013, in Las Vegas. / Associated Press

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Dan Feldman writes for the Pistons blog PistonPowered. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Detroit Free Press nor its writers. PistonPowered writers will contribute a column every Friday at freep.com/pistons. Contact Dan anytime at pistonpowered@gmail.com or on Twitter @pistonpowered.

The Detroit Pistons, slotted seventh, fell to the No. 8 pick in the NBA draft lottery this week. There isn’t much difference between pick seven and eight in this draft, but there’s a big difference between staying in that range and moving into the top three.

If I had to guess today, the draft would go as follows:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlens Noel

2. Orlando Magic – Trey Burke

3. Washington Wizards – Otto Porter Jr.

4. Charlotte Bobcats – Ben McLemore

5. Phoenix Suns – Victor Oladipo

6. New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Bennett

7. Sacramento Kings – C.J. McCollum

Noel, Burke, Porter McLemore and Oladipo have become consensus members of the draft’s top five or six players. Though the Pistons have gotten lucky in two of the last three drafts, with Greg Monroe falling to No. 7 and Andre Drummond falling to No. 9, Detroit can’t again count on similar fortune. (Most 2011 mock drafts listed Brandon Knight much higher than No. 8, where Pistons picked him, but that was because many expected the Jazz (No. 3) or Raptors (No. 5) to reach for a point guard who deserved to be ranked about eighth.)

At this point, Noel, Burke, Porter McLemore and Oladipo are pipe dreams for the Pistons.

That makes Bennett, ranked by some in a group with the aforementioned five players, Detroit’s dream pick.

Bennett, a freshman forward from UNLV, is an explosive athlete whose ball skills and mobility make him a matchup issue for opposing power forwards. There’s a chance he can transition to small forward, but I wouldn’t count on it. Obviously, that’s not ideal with Monroe and Drummond — and neither is Bennett’s defensive indifference at UNLV nor the rotator-cuff surgery he had that will keep him out until the fall — but Bennett is so far ahead of the next prospect that if he’s there, he should be the pick.

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McCollum to the Kings is merely an educated guess, because, after Bennett, there’s a deep group of players in that tier. In other words, McCollum is more likely to be available for the Pistons than not, but I had to stick someone as No. 7.

It’s certainly worth evaluating McCollum as a strong Pistons possibility. He scored very well at Lehigh, but he didn’t show the passing skills his height (6-feet-3) will require in the NBA. Lehigh needed McCollum to score, and it’s possible he has playmaking skills the system never allowed him to showcase, but it’s a risk to draft a player who didn’t prove himself, regardless of the reason. Another question is whether he and Brandon Knight are big enough to defend in tandem, but at this point, I wouldn’t let Knight's presence influence any draft decisions.

UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad is probably the best fit in this tier, considering the Pistons need another wing player. Muhammad has taken more criticism than anyone in this draft — both deserved (lies about his age) and undeserved (NCAA scrutiny, backpack). But he works hard and always plays hard, and those traits should get more consideration than they have.

Maryland’s Alex Len is skilled and tall, but maybe soft. Indiana’s Cody Zeller produced very well in the nation’s best conference, but his wingspan and tendency to get pushed around leaves questions. But both big men can add only so much value to a team that already has Monroe and Drummond.

Syracuse’s Michel Carter-Williams makes excellent passes, but he also turns the ball over too much and is a terrible shooter. He and Knight would complement each other well in the backcourt (besides combining for too many turnovers), but there’s no guarantee either will become good enough to start in the NBA.

Georgia’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has seen his draft stock rise quickly. He’s a good shooter and defender, an important combination, though question marks about his ballhandling limit his perceived upside.

He fits as well as Muhammad, so that leads to the question that has a very good chance of determining Detroit’s pick: Is Shabazz Muhammad or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a better prospect?

The Pistons will have a month to determine an answer if that truly is the relevant question on draft night.