According to a report (Severe
Space Weather Events) issued by the National Research
Council (NRC)
in January 2009 a large solar storm can cause severe disruption to
the U.S. electrical grid. In a severe solar storm, electrical
transformers can be melted causing power blackouts for extended
periods.

Repairs to the damaged electrical grid,
according to a New Scientist article published in March
2009, would take weeks if not months. Also, there is no
guarantee that repaired electrical grids would not again succumb to
new solar storm activity as
Solar Cycle 24 reaches its maximum
over a several year period around 2012.

There was some good news in NASA
scientists
recently revising estimates of
solar activity for Solar Cycle 24 to the lowest levels since
1928.

Nevertheless, a
giant breach in the magnetosphere
reported by NASA in December 2008 makes it far easier for
solar plasma to enter into the Earth’s atmosphere. For the full 11
year period of Solar Cycle 24 (approx. 2008-2019) the Earth
will be vulnerable to any Coronal Mass Ejections directly aimed at
it from the sun. The risks of solar storms bombarding the Earth and
repeatedly taking down the electrical grid for extended periods has
never been greater. In addition to physical and health risks posed
by extensive and repeated electrical blackouts, the economic costs
would be enormous.

Now is the best time to take
preventative action and develop off-the-grid (stand alone) energy
systems using renewable energy sources.

A presentation at the 2008 Space Weather Workshop was titled
“Economic Aspects of Space Weather on the Power Grid.”

The author, Ben Damsky, estimated
the financial cost of moderate, large and very large space storms
disrupting the electrical grid of an American city with a population
of one million. Damsky’s approach was based on a city losing 80% of
its share of the U.S. Gross National Product for the number of
working days lost when a very large storm hit.

To get a more accurate idea of the
financial cost for the period in question, I will use an economic
forecast for the state of Hawaii from 2009-2012
using figures cited by the Hawaii
State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, issued
on May 18, 2009.

In 2012, the State of Hawaii is estimated to have a population of
1.3 million and a Gross Domestic Product of 69 billion. This
averages out at $53,000 per person and $1.3 billion per week. If a
very large solar storm were to hit and take down the electric grid
and cause an 80% loss of revenue, this would equate to just over 1
billion dollars a week.

The revenue lost over a month would be a
staggering 4 billion dollars. Hawaii would be worse hit than other
U.S. states due to its reliance on tourism. Over 7 million visitors
are expected to visit Hawaii in 2012 and spend 13 billion dollars.
If Hawaii’s electric grid were to go out, few tourists would visit
leading to a loss of most if not all of the tourist revenue for the
black out period. Consequently, businesses would experience severe
financial losses, revenue from state sales and accommodation taxes
would decline greatly, etc.

Hawaii, like most U.S. states, would be
very severely hit by prolonged and/or repeated black outs. What’s
the solution for Hawaii and other government authorities in the U.S.
and the world?

One solution is to encourage off-the-grid energy production so that
individuals, businesses and government agencies can become energy
self-sufficient. A variety of independent energy production
technologies have lately become more feasible. These include
photovoltaic cells and wind energy which rank high among renewable
energy sources.

In Hawaii and other U.S. states a number
of small companies have begun developing off the grid capacities.
One Maui based company, Smart Roof Systems, specializes in
solar and wind off-the grid energy systems.

In Germany, a "feed-in
tariff" law was passed in 2000 that required utility
companies to
subsidize solar energy producers by
buying their electricity at favorable rates. The law led to rapid
development in photovoltaic technology despite the generally cloudy
weather in Germany. Large solar energy companies and a smaller
cottage industry were created where solar energy is sold back to
utility companies through the electric grid at a profit.

Around 90% of solar
energy production in Germany is
grid-tied while 10% is off-the grid. Feed-in tariff laws have been
passed in other countries, and led to growth in the development and
use of solar panels for energy generation.

In addition to solar and wind energy generators, there are other
renewable energy sources that can be used to develop off-the grid
systems. Some of the most advanced off-the grid systems date from
the early 1900s due to the pioneering efforts of Nikola
Tesla the inventor of AC electricity.

Anticipating major disruptions to the electric grid system around
the year 2012 requires developing an off-the
grid energy system using renewable energy sources. An off-the grid
system can be used in conjunction with a grid-tied generation system
to assist with development costs. The State of Hawaii and other U.S.
government authorities at the state, county, and local levels need
to be proactive in dealing with the challenges posed by future solar
storm activity.

Feed-in tariff laws and other incentives
need to be offered to developers and customers who face high
start-off costs in purchasing off-the grid systems. Private citizens
can help by lobbying legislators or initiating local referenda to
pass laws/ordnances which stimulate the use of solar and other
renewable energies for off-the grid systems.

Developing off-the grid technologies for
as many businesses and homes as possible will mitigate whatever
economic downturn occurs in the future as Solar Cycle 24 unleashes
solar storms during its peak activity around the year 2012.

The human and financial cost of inaction
is too great, and off-the grid energy solutions are now too viable
to ignore any further.