Islamic Blog dealing with religious and worldly issues faced by the Muslims.

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Tuesday, 4 August 2015

The USA’s Second Policy Option in Afghanistan (2)

In the part (1) of
this article titled “The USA’s Second Policy Option in Afghanistan” (1),
we have seenthat the USA’s first policy
option in Afghanistan has failed, and now they may switch over to their second
policy option which would have very important implications for the regional
countries.

As the basic objective behind the USA’s second
policy option is to create bad blood between China and Afghan Taliban, the
implications of this policy option wouldimpactAfghanistan the most. The
first victim of this policy option would be dream of political stability in
Afghanistan in near future. More precisely the USA’s second policy option would
mean the USA would be ready to let Afghanistan plunge in political turmoil for
many years to come, if Afghan Taliban join hands with China to make Afghanistan
a part of regional integrated economic block. It may please be appreciated the
USA become hostile to terrorist and militant activities, if such activities
affect adversely the USA’s interests; if such activities support USA’s policy
targets, the USA would like to fan such activities. The examples of Syria, Libya,
Iraq and Pakistan prove this basic fact of the USA’s foreign policy.
Afghanistan is very crucial for the USA’s regional and ultimately international
objectives; Afghanistan may serve as the biggest hurdle in the way of likely
economically integrated block consisting China and the regional Islamic
countries. This block, once established, would mark the end of dominant
regional influence of the USA and ultimately its dominant international
influence. In other words, the USA may go to any extent to maintain its
regional and international influence, and would not hesitate, for that purpose,
to bring China and Afghan Taliban in conflict with each other.

The USA may use only a few most radical Afghan
groups against China. Once distanced from the mainstream Taliban, such radical
Afghan groups would not flinch in harboring terrorists and militants from all
over the world; such situation would have serious repercussions not only for
China but also for other neighboring countries of Afghanistan, particularly
Central Asian States. If mainstream Taliban turn hostile to radical Afghan
groups, such radical Afghan groups may also seek strength by joining hands with
ISIS; such a eventuality would enhance ISIS’s strength in Afghanistan. That
would mean further decrease in mainstream Afghan Taliban’s strength to
overthrow Kabul regime. In addition to would-be anti-China radical Taliban,
other radical Taliban groups may also join ISIS. Such an eventuality would
further ensure continuity of infighting, on the one hand, between Kabul regime
and mainstream Afghan Taliban and, on the other hand, between mainstream
Taliban and radical Taliban or ISIS Taliban. Such an infighting and militancy
in Afghanistan would suit the USA too much. Rather it would be, for the USA, an
ideal situation in which all its enemies including Afghan Taliban, radical
Taliban (along with militant elements harbored by these radical Taliban), and
ISIS Taliban would be fighting against one another; and Afghanistan would have
emerged as a biggest hurdle in the way of regional integrated economic block.

Afghanistan marred with infighting would also present
very serious implications to Iran. As Afghanistan infighting may lead to emergence
of even more powerful ISIS, such stronger ISIS would be a real threat to Iran
and Iranian interests in Afghanistan.

India would be no lesser happy than the USA, if
Afghanistan is plunged into bloody civil war. India would be more satisfied
with such a situation in Afghanistan viz a viz Kashmir dispute. As already
mentioned, Pak-India friendly relations might be one of the objectives of the
USA’s second policy option so that Pakistan might be pulled away from China’s
economic and political circle. But now that Pakistan has gone too far in
developing strategic and economic alliance with China, as is reflected in
agreed Pak-China Corridor, the USA, in this changed scenario, would not be
interested in getting Kashmir dispute resolved. Already USA was not ready to
resolve this dispute in Pakistan’s favor; but now USA would not be interested
in resolving this dispute at all. The reason is simple. The unresolved Kashmir
dispute would keep India out of integrated economic block likely to be emerged
in the region- Pakistan, due to its geography, would not allow India to be integrated without resolution of Kashmir dispute. As a result, India’s and USA’s interests converge in
Afghanistan; both would want to see Afghanistan away from the likely regional integrated
economic block.

As USA’s and India’s interests are better served
through civil war in Afghanistan; Pak-China’s interests can be promoted through
Afghanistan which should be a part of likely regional integrated economic
block. In other words, Pak-China interests can be protected and promoted only
if there is peace in Afghanistan, and if Afghan Taliban are free from infighting
and maintain unity of command.

From the foregoing, it may be concluded that
Afghanistan marred with infightings is not in favor of China, Pakistan, Iran
and other neighboring countries of Afghanistan. Therefore all neighboring
countries of Afghanistan, and specially China, Iran and Pakistan should move
with unity to ensure peace in Afghanistan and to make Taliban- Kabul Regime
talks a success. All these neighboring countries should also be clearer that
India’s role in Afghanistan without resolution of Kashmir dispute would be more
matching to the USA’s interests than to the neighboring countries’ interests.