Where are Americans moving, and why? Timothy Noah, writing in the Washington Monthly, professes to be puzzled. He points out that people have been moving out of states with high per-capita incomes — Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland — to states with lower income levels.

“Why are Americans by and large moving away from economic opportunity rather than toward it?” he asks.

It’s not puzzling at all. The movement from high-tax, high-housing-cost states to low-tax, low-housing-cost states has been going on for more than 40 years, as I note in my new book “Shaping Our Nation: How Surges of Migration Transformed America and Its Politics.”

From 1970 to 2010, the population of New York state rose from 18 million to 19 million. In that same period, the population of Texas grew from 11 million to 25 million.

The picture is even starker if you look at major metro areas. The New York metropolitan area, including counties in New Jersey and Connecticut, rose from 17.8 million in 1970 to 19.2 million in 2010 — up 8 percent. In that time, the nation grew 52 percent.

In the same period, the four big metro areas in Texas — Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin — grew from 6 million to 15.6 million, up 160 percent.

Contrary to Noah’s inference, people don’t move away from opportunity. They move partly in response to economic incentives, but also to pursue dreams and escape nightmares.

Opportunity does exist in the Northeastern states and in California — for people with very high skill levels and for low-skill immigrants, without whom those metro areas would have lost, rather than gained, population over the last three decades.

But there’s not much opportunity there for people with midlevel skills who want to raise families. Housing costs are exceedingly high, partly, as Noah notes, because of restrictive land-use and zoning regulations. Central city public schools, with a few exceptions, repel most middle-class parents.

High taxes produce revenues to finance handsome benefits and pensions for public employee union members in the high-cost states. It’s hard to see how this benefits middle-class people making their livings in the private sector.

Moreover, Noah’s use of per-capita incomes is misleading, since children typically have no income and many in the Northeast and coastal California are childless. If you look at household incomes, these states are far closer to the national average.

As economist Tyler Cowen points out in Time magazine, when you adjust incomes for tax rates and cost of living, Texas comes out ahead of California and New York and ranks behind only Virginia and Washington state.

Critics charge that Texas’s growth depends on the oil and gas industries and is weighted toward low-wage jobs. In fact, Texas’s low-tax, light-regulation policies have produced a highly diversified economy that from 2002 to 2011 created nearly a third of the nation’s highest-paying jobs. In those years, its number of upper- and middle-income jobs grew 24 percent.

Liberals like Noah often decry income inequality. But the states with the most unequal incomes and highest poverty levels these days are California and New York. That’s what happens when high taxes and housing costs squeeze out the middle class.

As Noah notes, “Few working-class people earn enough money to live anywhere near San Francisco.”

This leaves a highly visible and articulate upper class willing, in line with their liberal beliefs, to shoulder high tax burdens and a very much larger lower class — many of them immigrants — available to serve them in restaurants, landscape their gardens and valet-park their cars.

Noah notes correctly that fewer Americans have been moving recently. That’s always true in times of economic distress (the Okies’ trek along US Route 66 to California’s Central Valley in the 1930s was a memorable exception, not the rule).

But they continue to move to the low-tax states that are providing jobs and living space where they can pursue their dreams and escape places that burden them with high costs and provide few middle-class amenities in return.

What's Your Take?

The hispanic population in nyc is increasing and so is the asian population-and whats also increasing is the debt! Doesn't that tell you something about race and debt ratio? 110 billion in debt! Way too many government handouts!

It's called a retirement plan. Sell your tiny house in NY for millions and retire some place where you can still buy breakfast for under $25. Live like a king/queen for the rest of your life without the smell of urine.

my sister is a welfare queen and her aunt has 9 kids. this in brooklyn, ny. why? better question - or answer - is why not? she is making pennies on the dollar compared to the outrageous millions made by investment banks and bankers in nyc. this is her way of making her lioness' share of the pie while the others do the same. everyone has a talent. hers was to make babies and make dough out of that. what's wrong with that? everyone can't work in the same way. people are different.

Anyone with half a brain in their head (which is less than half the population today) can see that the the welfare state of NY and specifically NYC is spiraling towards bankruptcy but before they get there the democratic party will suck every last drop of tax blood from the people who own property and business, all to support the lower class welfare recipients who blame their miserable existence on the rich white man down on wall street.

it's all about state and municipal workers who suck the blood from the tax payers so that they can retire in their late 40's and early 50's, and take their bloated pensions and all their money to the sunbetl. talk to these creeps. All they talk about to each other is retirement and pensions and benefits. They arre a class ot "takers".

northern NEW YORK born and raised I have lived in NNY all my life. It is not the state employees and their benefits that make taxes here so high, it is welfare. To be accurate, in 1 county not far from where I live, the county budget is 180 million dollars and of that 110 million goes to social services(welfare), only 70 million to actually run the county. People, these are facts, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what is wrong with this part of the country, every neighboring state is the same way. Massachusetts is going broke with their state run healthcare system, yes the very same on that the FEDS are pushing on us is modeled after. This, people is a very small part of the major problem up here. I am getting every thing set in my life so when I retire I will definitely be leaving New York, as many people that are already retired here say, if I knew then what I know now I would have left this state the day my retirement was effective. I do have to say that it is mostly that toilet, NEW YORK CITY that saps the most money from the state.

@M B , your last sentence says it all. NYC continues to send only socialists to Albany because the city can not support itself and needs a few million dollars per day in subsidies just to survive. I remember back in the mid 1970's when some politicians from NYC proposed the idea of making NYC a separate state. Of course upstate people were overjoyed at the notion. When the city started to crunch the numbers, the idea was dropped because it was discovered that NYC would have to have a 70% income tax if it were to support itself without outside subsidies. With the massive increase in welfare dependency and public employees wages and benefits, I'm sure it would now require more like a 90% income tax.

Well, it could be true. I have been looking for work in my field for a very long time after my old position of 6 years was eliminated. I live in South Jersey, and I am moving to North Jersey soon since there are more opportunities in my field now than down here.

One thing is true, no matter where you live -- You get what you pay for. Sure, you can buy a much bigger house in, say Texas -- but do you really want to live there ?? Forget about the heat and humidity -- In living there (or most other "affordable" states), you surround yourself with people who (as demonstrated by the quality of school local system) do not value education -- for their children, or any others. Also, all things being equal -- do people really choose to live in these places, out of a strong desire ? Given the choice -- would they prefer to live in Southern California, or Florida, or NYC, or Boston ?

I've lived in several areas in the U.S., and always try to see the genuine value and attraction, to a region or city. But I've always shied away from places where people are drawn largely because a) it is cheaper to live, b) jobs have moved there, and c) there are no state taxes.

Life's TOO short to surround yourself with low-enders who see success in life as owning a bigger home than they could afford in the place they would much rather live.

@NYC-Born-n-Bred You don't always get what you pay for. We have a small 3 bedroom twin home in a small borough a few minutes outside of Philadelphia (southwest side). My husband bought our house at $185,000 because it was the only affordable house within a reasonable driving/public transportation distance from his office. We are paying $5,000 a year in property taxes. That's $40,000 of taxes in the 8 years we've owned our little 1920's house.

What are we getting for our premium taxes? Elementary, middle, and high schools that rank 2, 3, and 2 out of 10 on GreatSchools.com. That's abysmal. Our trash and recycling are only collected once a week, and we're lucky if our streets are plowed 24 hours after a snow storm. Mind you, our quaint little borough is only 1 mile square. It shouldn't take long to drive a plow through the streets. Crime rates are 7 out of 10 where the US average is 4, and the cost of living is 14% higher than average. Our local library is the size of a standard school classroom, and most of the books are decades old and falling apart.

If you can figure out how we are getting what we are paying for, please let me know. I've been trying to figure it out for years.

Before anyone recites the "No place is perfect" cliche, let's compare apples to apples. My parents own a four bedroom single home a few minutes southeast of Baltimore City. They pay $1,600 in property taxes. The schools in their area rank in the 4-6 range, crime rates are 5 out of 10, and the cost of living is 3.5% lower than average. Their trash and recycling are picked up twice a week, and their streets are plowed several times during and after snow storms. Their local library is at least the size of a high school gymnasium and is stocked to overflowing with books, periodicals, media, and reference materials that are updated frequently.

Maybe the stress of living where we do has scrambled my brain cells, but it sure sounds like my parents are getting more while paying less. We are among the Northeast residents planning to move south. We're tired of paying $5,000 every year and getting nothing in return. And we're not planning to get a bigger house because that's not our thing. We like small homes. We also like the idea of living in a place where property taxes actually translate into community resources.

taxes are lower in texas but education is terrible. toll roads are expensive and the norm. air is so dirty when it rains it comes down muddy. water is scarce and filthy. insurance is the highest in the nation, teenage pregnancy is also the highest in the nation.

@Patsy Charles Pirillo I am a life time New Yorker, retired. I have been hearing for years about how bad the southern schools are. ( I think the teachers union stared that rumor) My friends moved to Texas 30 years ago and love it. Their kids went to Texas universities and have high paying jobs. There is no state income tax in Texas. My daughter a RN is going to Raleigh N.C. this week. Yes, she will be taking a pay cut but her housing and cost of living will be much less.

An article about people fleeing the northeast, mentioning California & Texas, but omits New Orleans & Detroit? Detroit's population dwindled from almost 2 million to ~750K now from 1950-2010 and it doesn't even merit being cited? New Orleans was numero uno in lost population during the same period.

@RochelleRochelle New Orleans and Detroit are not located in the Northeast, so why would an article focusing primarily on the Northeast section of the United States focus on a Southern city and a Midwestern one?

As an ex-Long Island kid who moved to North Florida when his NYPD father retired, the rule of thumb is to make your fortune in NY, then retire in Florida. However, it will be much harder for your kids to make that same kind of money and retirement (pension) benefits in the South.

My family has been in this state for over 200 years. I will be leaving NYS when I retire because gun-grabbing tax-raising liberals like Bloomie and Cuomo will not stop until they have disarmed every law-abiding person and taxed the producers into the poor house in the name of income redistribution. Something is terribly wrong in a state where success is considered wrong/ unfair or due to some unearned special advantage,and being a low life bum is heralded as a citizen who should be supported in all of lifes needs by the efforts of others while making no effort to sustain yourself.

Lib'Rhuls are an infestation. Why would sane normal people want to live anywhere near these folks. They tax a state like NY and Cali to death, then flee to CO and WA and continue their ruinous ways in a whole new place. Taxes in NY are insane. SAFE act made 6 million NY'ers criminals over night. Upstate is sick to death of being dictated too On High from a place that is 6 hours away. You people never come north to us, and we'll be damned if we come down there. Upstate NY needs to have the cancer that is the 5 boroughs excised and make UsNY the 51'st state.

I agree 100%. NYC is cancer that spreads not only to Upstate, but to the rest of the country. Free New York should be formed above the Bronx border. It would be a real Free State with low taxes, Respect for Constitution and Bill of Rights and market economy. Let NYC and LI rot in their own liberal socialist brime.

Between all new Obama and Cuomo taxes I now pay 58% of my income in taxes, my rent is $6k per month for a small box. There are no jobs left as the regulation are moving them over seas.....Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money.

@Paul Tourists from all over the world are flocking here in record numbers. Hotel rooms are being built like crazy and room rates are sky high. Rents and housing prices are up. Businesses are thriving. Even News Corp's HQ is here. I can see their building right outside my office window.

I personally know many good, hard-working, educated people that are moving out or have moved out already because of Cuomo's SAFE Act. This terrible piece of unconstitutional legislation did away with the Constitutional Freedoms in NYS. And gun-owners are moving out and are taking their money with them to free states. NY will soon be left with the welfare crowd only, bankrupt because of the liberal anti-American policies pushed onto us by Cuomo and Bloomberg.

This is the battle between liberty and tyranny. It can be as important as people not wanting to be taxed to hell or as silly as not telling me how big my soda can be. Why do you think progressives want everything done on a federal level giving the citizen nowhere to run to.

Anyone who thinks Texas' population grew from Mexican immigrants is clueless. I spend a lot of time in Texas and lately, the amount of license plates from California, Florida and myriad other states is like nothing I've ever seen before. And no, they are not likely liberals, but rather moderates and conservatives who got tired of being slaves to the municipal unions and their criminal demands who have totally ruined states like California, New York, New Jersey et al.

Florida? Great place to visit in Winter (summer is unbearable), but awful place to live (lived there for 1 year and could not wait to escape the boredom-- no action at all). Aside from warm weather, WTF else is there? Weirdos (a lot of transients and homeless who can easily survive outside and old people). Low paying jobs, much traffic, awful food (you have to pay a lot to get a good meal--- they do not have corner delis, pizza places, etc)

This is why New Hampshire is growing so quickly. No state income tax. Plus much cheaper cost of living. I moved there a number of years ago from the city and can actually enjoy the fruits of my labor. Live Free or Die. For the cost of a 3 bedroom apartment you can live in a 3 story house on 7 acres with a lake view.

@Don What do you do for a living in NH? its great if you are a trustafarian. Their main industries our tourism and farming. The ski slopes are getting hammered by global warming. The only hope for NH is farming and organic/locally sourced movement which will bring big income to farmers.

I have lived in either NY or CT my entire life, and was proud to live in these places. Now, I am getting marginalized by high taxes, high prices for everything, and local governments that are borderline Socialistic. Couple that with the crummy weather we have been having, I for one don;t enjoy living here anymore. Too liberal, too expensive, and hard to enjoy.

Why is this conservative political rhetoric in the news section? All the conclusions are directly contradicted by the numbers. People are not moving out of the New York Metropolitan area---it had 8% growth over the period studied. People are moving into the urban areas of Boston, Philadelphia and Washington as well. The population growth has occured overwhelmingly in the post-industrial upstate cities and equivalent areas of Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. To compare growth in the Sunbelt is not a fair comparison--these are areas which were formerly vacant land and massive tax subsidies are given to people moving there. But all you have to look at are the rings of empty developments after the 2008 mortgage crisis to see that it was no bed of roses, there, either. But you know what, these constant efforts to divide us to try and force austerity and poverty to 80% of the population is just another side of the "Supply Side" nonsense that you people tried to force upon us in the '80s and the 2000s with the Bush Tax Cuts. Neither worked. We need taxes because we ALL rely on government services, whether you want to admit it or not. And if you are real journalists, you move this to the editorial page where it belongs.

@palestrajon That is why you are not an author or expert in this area. 8% growth in that period? That is natural population growth and establishes significant abandonment of the NE. The growth would have been much greater had all of the people that moved stayed in the NE. 8% over that period is essentially a loss of population.

@Iceman you fail to see his point. Suburbs have shrank in population, while cities have boomed, especially in the past 6 years. NYC, DC, Chicago, SF, Boston, have all experienced major growth in this time frame. But I'm only talking about the city itself, not the surrounding metropolitan area.