With the war in Iraq largely over and Saddam Hussein's régime out
of power, there has been a lot of speculation about who's next. Will it be
Syria, accused of harboring members of the former Iraqi régime? Axis
of Evil member North Korea, with its nuclear weapons program? Or Iran, the
other remaining member of the Axis, with its state sponsorship of terrorism
and attempts to thwart the establishment of a truly representative government
in neighboring Iraq?

As things stand now, the answer could be Iran, though not in the way most
people expect.

Nearly four years ago, thousands of Iranian students took to the streets
in protest against the mullahs who are the real power in Iran. Since then,
resentment of the repressive rule has not abated. As the American Enterprise
Institute's Michael Ledeen has reported, thousands of people marched chanting "Death
to the Taliban in Kabul and Tehran" just a year ago, and not long afterward,
a minor deputy in the Iranian parliament read a fatwa from Ayatollah Montazeri
- who has been under house arrest for years -- on live television, saying
that those who use suicide terrorism to kill women and children are damned
to eternity in Hell. Student groups that have previously supported the "reformist" President
Khatami have condemned him as a failure, and according to Ledeen, a secret
poll carried out by the Interior Ministry found that 94 percent of 16,000
people surveyed in Tehran were unhappy with the régime. Almost half
said it is incapable of reform and must be totally changed. As Ledeen points
out, those numbers are surely understated, given that many people would have
been reluctant to risk denouncing the régime.

Last October, the state polling institution actually disclosed that ruling
mullah Ayatollah Khamenei was the most unpopular man in the nation and that
three quarters of the Iranian people want good relations with the United
States (not surprising, given that 70 percent of Iranians are under the age
of 30), leading to the arrest of both the institution's head and the newspaper
editor who printed the story. And in the municipal elections held last month,
official turnout - undoubtedly exaggerated - was just ten percent, despite
efforts by régime leaders to encourage an impressive turnout.

In short, Iranians are tired of the régime and seemingly tired of
what it stands for.

July 9th will be the fourth anniversary of that massive demonstration against
the mullahs, and student groups are reportedly organizing a general strike
that they hope will have a domino effect spelling an end to the rule of the
ayatollahs. With the rule of the Taliban ended on one side of the country
and the rule of Saddam Hussein over on the other, many believe there is a
real chance to transform Iran into a genuine democracy, though some say it
will take moral support from the U.S. to make the difference.

"If we did this right, we could have a régime change in Iran.
It would just take for the U.S. to make very clear that we want to change
the régime - no platitudes, no pussyfooting around," Georgetown
University professor Rob Sobhani was quoted as saying in the New
York Sun last week. It's a point Ledeen has been making for years. I
hope they're right.

I have fond memories of life in Tehran before the revolution, and of the
generosity and kindness of the Iranians whom I knew while living there. It's
often saddened me to think of how few of them are probably still around after
the madness of the ensuing years. However, the possibility that the Iranians
themselves may finally end the rule of the mullahs and their membership in
the Axis of Evil is truly wonderful, and I hope it's not too good to be true.

It was really amazing to watch that statue fall in Baghdad, and while the
pictures that may come from Tehran would not be the same, there's no doubt
that the sentiments of free Iranians would be. If moral support is what they
need, let's do what it takes.

John Nowacki is Director of Legal Policy at the Free Congress Foundation.

Other related stories: (open in a new window)

The
final days of Iran's religious dictatorship? by Steven Martinovich (November
18, 2002)
Although the Western press doesn't seem interested, Steve Martinovich says
big things are happening in Iran right now. The Axis of Evil might be short
a member real soon

The endgame for militant Islam by Steven Martinovich (August
5, 2002)
Steve Martinovich finds Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam to
be a remarkable look into the world of militant Islam

The Iranian streetby Joseph Kellard
(August 5, 2002)
There are Iranians who are publicly protesting their desire for freedom and their
friendship with the United States. Joseph Kellard says it's time the US put its
money where its mouth is and throw their support behind them