What will turnout be on Tuesday?

Just what turnout will be on Tuesday remains anyone's guess at this point. Here are some factors to consider:

Turnout for municipal elections is traditionally low. In 2009 it was just 20 percent. It peaked in 1997 at 46 percent.

On the other hand, absentee voting has already been very popular (see table below). A total of 4,419 people had voted absentee as of Sunday morning. More than 1,600 of those votes came from Ward 6, where a Somali candidate, Abdi Warsame, is running an agressive campaign against incumbent council member Robert Lilligren.

By comparison, only 1,619 absentee ballots were cast in the entire 2009 election -- which did not feature very many competitive races.

It is expected to snow or rain on Tuesday, which could dampen turnout.

Several people on Twitter this morning and weekend have been predicting lower turnout. Among those low-turnout predictors is Kendal Killian, the treasurer of the independent group supporting Mark Andrew (see below). Kate Brickman, with SEIU, does not think the weather will matter, however.