Thoughts on Life, Love, Politics, Hypocrisy and Coming Out in Mid-Life

Sunday, July 12, 2015

The Democrats' Demographic Advantage

Yet another article in The Atlantic looks at the growing demographic challenges faced by the Republican Party in 2016 and beyond. Despite all the analysis that shows that angry conservative white voters are shrinking as a portion of the voting population as non-black minority groups and college educated whites - who tend to vote Democrat - are growing segments of the overall population, the GOP at the federal and state level remains in a deadly embrace with Christofascists and runs the risk of becoming a permanent minority party. As a political activist of going on 3 decades, one has to wonder why the GOP remains in denial about the changing national population and the growing revulsion more and more voters hols for the extremists of the Christian Right. Here are article highlights:

Looking at the race through a historical lens, the odds would seem
stacked against Hillary Clinton (assuming that she is the Democratic
nominee). In the post-World War II era, only six times has one party
held the presidency for two consecutive terms, and only once has that
party kept the White House for a third—a pattern that reflects what I
call the “time for a change” voter dynamic. In fact, the last Democratic
president directly elected to succeed another was James Buchanan, in
1856; he followed Franklin Pierce.

But looking through a demographic lens, the modern GOP's increasing
reliance on a shrinking pool of older, white, and working-class
voters—and its failure to attract nonwhite voters—would seem to present
an enormous obstacle to the eventual Republican nominee. In 1980, when
nonwhite voters were just 12 percent of the electorate, Ronald Reagan
won 56 percent of white voters and was elected in a landslide. But in
2012, when nonwhite voters accounted for 28 percent of the electorate,
Mitt Romney took 59 percent of white voters—and lost the presidential
race by 4 percentage points. Without a total brand makeover, how can
Republicans expect to prevail with an even more diverse electorate in
2016?

Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman recently
crunched census and exit-poll data to build a statistical model of the
likely electorate in each state, breaking down voters into five distinct
groups: 1) whites with college degrees, 2) whites without college
degrees, 3) African-Americans, 4) Latinos, and 5) Asians/others.

First, the good news for Democrats: If the electorate evolves in sync
with the Census Bureau's estimates of the adult citizen population
(admittedly, a big if), the white share of the electorate would drop
from 72 percent in 2012 to 70 percent in 2016; the African American
share would remain stable at 13 percent; the Latino portion would grow
from 10 percent to 11 percent; and the Asian/other segment would
increase from 5 percent to 6 percent. If the 2012 election had been held
with that breakdown (keeping all other variables stable), President
Obama would have won by 5.4 percentage points rather than by his actual
3.85-point margin.

In addition, the group with which the GOP does best—whites without
college degrees—is the only one poised to shrink in 2016. President
Obama won just 36 percent of these voters in 2012, while 42 percent of
white voters with college degrees pulled the lever for him. But if the
electorate changes in line with census estimates, the slice of
college-educated whites will grow by 1 point, to 37 percent of all
voters, while the portion of whites without degrees will shrink 3
points, to just 33 percent of the total. In other words, the GOP doesn't
just have a growing problem with nonwhites; it has a shrinkage problem
as well, as conservative white seniors are supplanted by
college-educated millennials with different cultural attitudes.

[T]he bottom line is that demographic trends, while helpful to Democrats,
are no guarantee that the party will hold the White House beyond 2017.

Translate This Page

Contact Me to Order Title Work

LGBT Legal Services

About Me

Out gay attorney in a committed relationship; formerly married and father of three wonderful children; sometime activist and political/news junkie; survived coming out in mid-life and hope to share my experiences and reflections with others.
In the career/professional realm, I am affiliated with Caplan & Associates PC where I practice in the areas of real estate, estate planning (Wills, Trusts, Advanced Medical Directives, Financial Powers of Attorney, Durable Medical Powers of Attorney); business law and commercial transactions; formation of corporations and limited liability companies and legal services to the gay, lesbian and transgender community, including birth certificate amendment.

Disclaimer on Opinions and Content

This Blog contains content that may be innapropriate for readers under the legal age of 18. IF YOU ARE UNDER 18 YEARS OF AGE, PLEASE LEAVE NOW. Thank you

This is an opinion and commentary blog and the opinions and contents of this Blog - including opinions expressed concerning opponents of LGBT equality - are the opinions only of the individual blogger and should not be attributed to any other individuals or to any organization of which the blogger is a past or current member.

Followers

PLU Top Gay Blogs

Michael-in-Norfolk disclaims any and all responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, legality, reliability, operability, or availability of information or material displayed on this site and does not claim credit for any images or articles featured on this site, unless otherwise noted. All visual content is copyrighted to it's respectful owners. Information on this site may contain errors or inaccuracies, and Michael-in-Norfolk does not make warranty as to the correctness or reliability of the site's content. If you own rights to any of the images or articles, and do not wish them to appear on this site, please contact Michael-in-Norfolk via e-mail and they will be promptly removed. Michael-in-Norfolk contains links to other Internet sites. These links are provided solely as a convenience and are not endorsements of any products or services in such sites, and no information or content in such site has been endorsed or approved by this blog.