Pew poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

posted at 8:27 pm on April 17, 2012 by Allahpundit

As the general election campaign gets underway, Obama’s slim 49% to 45% edge over Mitt Romney is based on his continued support among women, college graduates, blacks, Latinos and lower-income voters. Obama leads Romney by 13 points among women, which is identical to his victory margin over McCain among women four years ago, according to National Election Pool exit polls. Men, who split their vote between Obama (49%) and McCain (48%), are leaning slightly toward Romney today, by a 50% to 44% margin…

Obama has lost support among several groups: Obama carried the independent vote by a margin of 52% to 44% in 2008. Today, 42% of independents favor him, while 48% back Romney. Obama also is faring worse among lower-income voters and those with less education than he did in 2008.

Obama trails Romney by a wide margin among white voters (54% Romney, 39% Obama), though that is little changed from 2008. But Obama has lost ground among certain groups of white voters. In 2008, whites with household incomes under $50,000 favored McCain over Obama by a slim 51% to 47% margin. Today, lower-income whites favor Romney over Obama by a 16-point margin (54% to 38%).

Follow the link for a useful side-by-side comparison of O’s numbers against McCain across various demographics and his current numbers against Romney. (Here’s the data about the sample. It’s based on 3,008 adults but only 2,841 identify as Democrat, Republican, or independent — and only 2,373 are registered voters. Among self-identified respondents, the split is 32.7D/27.7R/39.6I.) Dave Weigel’s right: In key groups that Dems are worried about, most notably independents and seniors, right now Obama’s off his 2008 pace and is doing just barely well enough to lead. In fact, Ron Brownstein took a hard look at all four major polls released over the last few days and spotted a pattern:

Even with their modest variations, these four surveys paint a similar picture. Obama is largely holding the minority and college-educated white women who comprise two pillars of the modern Democratic base (along with young people.) But he is facing erosion among blue-collar white men and struggling to maintain even his modest 2008 support among the two swing quadrants in the white electorate: the college-plus white men and non-college white women.

For the moment, that division of allegiances is enough to provide Obama an overall advantage (he would lead slightly even in the Gallup track if the minority share of the vote was adjusted to its level in 2008). But it’s not enough of an edge for him to breathe easy-and the fact that most of the white electorate is resisting him at least as much as it did in 2008 suggests he may never entirely get to such a comfortable place before November, even if he remains ahead overall.

No margin for error for The One this time. Meanwhile, CNN has new numbers via their screwy data set from yesterday, for what it’s worth: Romney’s favorable rating is up 10 points since February to 44 percent and his unfavorables are down 11 points to 43 percent. He still trails O in favorability and likely always will, but narrowing the spread at least reduces the chance that the “likability gap” will move votes among undecideds at the last minute. Then again, Romney may be benefiting here from a honeymoon period with the public now that he’s all but clinched the nomination. We’ll see what happens to these numbers once he and O start throwing roundhouses.

I’ll leave you with two noteworthy bits from the Pew poll. First, the shame of Republican negligence on spending:

Lots of factors help explain those 2004 numbers. One: The deficit was in fact much smaller pre-recession. Two: The war on terror was a top Republican priority at the time, and hawkish voters typically are willing to run deficits to justify a war effort. Three: There’s an obvious partisan effect here. Republicans clearly cut Dubya some slack early on (although a sizable majority were worried about deficits again by the time of Bush’s final year) and Democrats actually got more comfortable with the deficit after Obama took office despite the explosion of red ink. Even so, you’ve got a clear majority of Dems and indies worried about deficits across an eight-year span here but not until sometime between 2004 and 2008 do Republicans catch up. Note to GOPers: When you’re asked whether balancing the books is “very important” to your vote, the answer is yes.

Then there’s this:

Note the last four lines in particular. I flagged another poll showing something similar a few months ago but can’t find it in the archives right now. Plain and simple: For all the hype about conservatives and tea partiers feeling disgruntled about Romney, there’s no reason to think they’re staying home because of it. On the contrary, it’s the centrists who seem to be wavering on Mitt. That’s perfectly logical — centrists will consider voting for Obama whereas right-wingers won’t — but the myth of the spiteful anti-Romney grassroots conservative will feature in many an election story to come this year. Bear these numbers in mind whenever you come across it.

Blowback

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the myth of the spiteful anti-Romney grassroots conservative will feature in many an election story to come this year. Bear these numbers in mind whenever you come across it.

I’m mythical? Sweet. We myths prefer the term “legend” or “legendary,” but I look forward to the candidates talking about the contributions we myths have made to America during its history, and how we’ve been crucial to the backbone of America.

For the moment, that division of allegiances is enough to provide Obama an overall advantage

I disagree. I think if the elections were today, Romney would win with a very narrow advantage. I believe a likely voters screen would put him slightly ahead in every one of these post-Santorum dropping out polls he trails except the CNN one.

I’m thinking “Dude, it’s down to the wire” has always been the likeliest and wisest assumption to be making through all of this. If it turns out that indeed “we’ve got this,” then fine.

Until then, forget the overall conclusions from the early polling and just play with the numbers. It looks like the race depends on whether Romney gets +/- about 53% of voting Indies and whether the minority share of the electorate is less or more than 25% (Obama wants/expect 28% according to NJ) with Zero winning +/- 80% of that. I expect all the Romney campaign is doing is playing with the numbers to see what scenarios bring about victory. Doing any more than that with early polls to try to assign predictive value will burn anybody out before May, let alone November.

Romney picks a woman VP and spends all summer hammering away at Obama’s hypocrisy. The economy doesn’t improve… Why would it, Obama will only pursue policies that hinder economic progress and not further it. Obama tries mediscaring, trayvonning, and flukeing the American people. Romney landslide.

Romney picks a woman VP and spends all summer hammering away at Obama’s hypocrisy. The economy doesn’t improve… Why would it, Obama will only pursue policies that hinder economic progress and not further it. Obama tries mediscaring, trayvonning, and flukeing the American people. Romney landslide.

Greek Fire on April 17, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Eh, but which woman. Haley and Martinez have already said no. Ayotte is too northeastern and too moderate. None of them have enough experience. Blackburn, Bachmann and Rodgers have no statewide experience. Rice is too much of a question mark on many non-FP issues. Palin has been ridiculously polarized by the media, brings up memories of McLame, and likely doesn’t want to go through that experience again.

We just don’t have many women ready for prime-time right now. My suggestion is to avoid the consistently wrong-headed Democrat tactic of playing identity politics and let policy and principle determine the running mate. Jindal or Ryan are the best candidates in my opinion. At which point cue Zero “mediscaring, trayvonning, flukeing” and losing.

Not surprising, the generic Republican has polled above the President a while now, With a choice being made Romney picks up the NObama vote, bumper stickers of which have been easy found in the most liberal cities.

Make no assumptions, its going to be a tough, tough run, the battle rolls back and forth, its up to us to continue the siege when the outlook seems most dire.

Democrats actually got more comfortable with the deficit after Obama took office despite the explosion of red ink

After the economy imploded, the writing was on the wall to anyone with an understanding of the implications to federal revenues. Whatever could have been done to bring back the Clinton and House GOP days of balanced budgets before 2007 was a distant memory. Welcome to trillion dollar, annual deficits.

You have to consider that Obama’s election day numbers were after a long season of hard campaigning. Obama has lost considerable ground here when for the past few months, he has been the only one really campaigning and has had a fawning press trotting out his campaign spin daily.

Romney hasn’t been in national campaign mode until the last week or two when he finally has had a break from the state primaries to appear on some national TV interviews and do some rather high profile speeches.

I’d like to see Romney get aggressive in getting into Obama’s prime support areas. For example, I would love to see him address a meeting of the NAACP. His family has a history of being ardent supporters of the civil rights movement. His father was a very vocal proponent of civil rights, created Michigan’s first Civil Rights Commission, and was Nixon’s head of Housing and Urban Development. His father stood up to the Mormon church who told him to tone down his support of civil rights for black Americans.

Another area that Obama leads in according to various polls is “trust” which is where Obama has suddenly focused. The Romney campaign should make a point of showing just how far Obama can be trusted when it comes to what he says and what he does.

Romney can make headway with the Hispanic community by refraining from making a litany of empty promises and simply saying that he wants to listen to them and learn what their priorities and needs are. And that the most important thing is to get the economy moving again so people are less interested on what the government will permit them to do and more interested in following their own dreams and being the master of their own destiny. Relying on the government is limiting as one can only obtain what the government is offering. A growing economy removes all limitations and one’s potential accomplishment is limited only by one’s own abilities. The Hispanic community has a strong ethic of work and family. Romney needs to reinforce those values WITHOUT making a bunch of speculative promises that might not come to pass.

I think he is also on the right track with women. His current “inclusive” approach such as he demonstrated at the NRA speech will appeal more strongly to women. He needs to keep at it, but I believe he is on the right track.

As the general election campaign gets underway, Obama’s slim 49% to 45% edge over Mitt Romney is based on his continued support among women, college graduates, blacks, Latinos, high school dropouts, criminals, minors, illegal immigrants with no ID, the dead, the functionally retarded, animals with human qualities that Democrats feel like including and lower-income voters.

Romney picks a woman VP and spends all summer hammering away at Obama’s hypocrisy. The economy doesn’t improve… Why would it, Obama will only pursue policies that hinder economic progress and not further it. Obama tries mediscaring, trayvonning, and flukeing the American people. Romney landslide.

Greek Fire on April 17, 2012 at 8:41 PM

We had a female VP candidate last time and still managed to lose the female vote by a wide margin. What makes you think we would have any more success with that strategy this time around?

Losing is not an option Mr. Romney. Figure out how to do it and close the deal. Pack up a big team. Consult with Rove. Consult with whoever you need to. I’m not your biggest fan but since you’re the one now, get it done. Please. We cannot have four more years of this arrogant fool.

Eh. These polls don’t mean all that much, except that right now, with Romney just beginning to focus his fire on Obama exclusively, he’s already picking up steam. I think the following quote from the Belmont Club column (PJ Media) “Burdened by Success” is on the money–”Axelrod no longer controls the spin cycle, which will continue to be driven by all the bad smells emerging from the stuff swept under the carpet. Emergent events — not talking points — are going to drive things forward.” The stuff swept under the rug–his bad past policies that will continue to reap rotten fruit–as well as emergent events–the new screw-ups waiting on the horizon–will pack a real wallop on a candidate who really hasn’t got any ideas at all. Don’t sweat these polls. If it’s really true what we’ve all been saying about his lousy choices over the last few years, they will come back to haunt him in the coming months. Stick a fork in him. He’s done.

Actually, yes, in a way. Negative campaigning, especially in primaries, tends to raise the unfavorables of the issuer somewhat. It relies on the fact that the damage is less dramatic and less lasting than that done to the target. That’s what is happening for Romney now. Gingrich and Santorum are down for the count, while the ill feelings toward Romney from many of their former supporters are starting to fade. Granted, Romney can credit Hilary Rosen’s big mouth and Zero’s ongoing stupidity for expediting that process quite a bit.

The partisan differentials are similar to 2010 In the Gallup, Pew and Fox polls – each candidate is holding onto about 90% of their bases and the Indis are breaking toward Romney.

The difference in the polling results are primarily due to oartisan weighting. If the poll weights the Dems and GOP fairly evenly (which is where its been for the past two years), then Romeny is leading aming registered voters before you even get to mrasuring enthusiasm.

Nah, your post was okay. Pew may have him down four but their last poll had him down twelve. So their conclusion – which is pointless this early – is negative, but the trend is favoring Romney and hopefully that does continue.

That’s perfectly logical — centrists will consider voting for Obama whereas right-wingers won’t — but the myth of the spiteful anti-Romney grassroots conservative will feature in many an election story to come this year. Bear these numbers in mind whenever you come across it.

Heh. I grant you they represent a puny portion of the voting populace, but these mythical creatures are here at Hot Air in abundance commenting (and even writing for the Green Room!).

Okay, while PEW isn’t as bad as some pollsters, historically I haven’t really been impressed by them either. This poll is probably a good example of their flaws.

While they do give a party affiliation breakdown, they’re still giving democrats a 5% advantage. I read a few days ago that in 2000 and 2004, GOP/DEM turnout was almost tied, and in 2008 Dems had about a 6% advantage in turnout. 2008 however was an overwhelmingly democratic year however, and it seems unlikely they’ll come so close to matching that years turnout. Even at the most bitter part of the GOP primary, voter enthusiasm among Republicans was still somewhat higher than enthusiasm among democrats. On top of that, I’ve seen ample data to suggest that DEM affiliation has fallen measurably since 2008.

Of course, my analysis is biased to an extent. However, what the pollster is saying is that the numbers look like 2008 numbers save for a few demographics that Obama is doing poorly in. Well, it seems to me that, if you’re assuming a near 2008 turnout ratio, the numbers are certain to more closely resemble 2008.

What happens if the party affiliation is more similar to 2000 and 2004 however? My guess is that the numbers would suddenly look more like Gallop, Rasmussen, or Fox’s.

This I think, is the main reason we’re seeing dramatically different results from different pollsters. Some pollsters seem to assume the sort of turnout we had in 2008, other pollsters assume something more like 2000-2004, which benefits Romney.

At the end of the day, it probably is going to come down to which pollsters assumptions are more realistic.

I don’t get moderate Republicans not being enthusiastic about Romney. Romney is conservative, but reasonable. Given the lunatic who was in second place, I am overjoyed by Romney. And let’s not forget Obama is a lunatic leftist. He’s not the reasonable person he tries to spin himself as. He’s every bit as out there as Santorum is, though to the other side. Even many moderate Democrats should prefer Romney to someone as far to the left as Obama.

aside from all the political angles, it honestly appalls me that any “moderate/lib” R would even faintly consider voting for barry. I suppose there’s a fair number of people who just want to blow off a pollster…or just want to be ‘hip’ in talking over the phone….but seriously.

barry still has an 8 percent of gdp annual deficit. Now the leftists on msnbc are thrilled to see barry finessing the Rs into ‘extreme’ budgets to try to fix the system.

8 percent is worse than almost all developed countries. Now, Conrad is floating the Simpson-Bowles thing as a budget…and the leftists see that as a plan to trump the Rs.

anyone who keeps up with the economic situation knows that, at best, barry/left/press are playing a deeply cynical game with the country’s future.

WTF’s a centrist? An Independent? A weasley moderate? Where the hell’s the center anyway? How do you pigeon-hole the educated elites like David Brooks or a Bill O’Reilly or an idiot like Jerry Rivers or that solid libertarian Bill Maher? Maybe a centrist is someone like John ‘F’ Kerry, “I was for the Iraq war before I was against it.” Is it wrong to hope that gas prices go well over $5/gal just to see Obama get his ass handed to him? Hope and no change!