NOAA's initial hurricane season outlook (released at the end of May), predicted a 45-percent chance of a near-normal season, with a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms, including the possibility of 4 to 8 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. Then, three months later, NOAA released an update to the initial outlook that called for a "higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season.” 2016, the forecasters said, is expected to be “the most active since 2012." They were right.