Fitch Rates Denver City & County Board of Water Comm., CO at 'AAA';
Outlook Stable

August 29, 2014 01:48 PM Eastern Daylight Time

AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'AAA' rating to the following bonds issued
by the City and County of Denver, Colorado Board of Water Commissioner's
(the board):

--Approximately $44.5 million master resolution water revenue bonds,
series 2014A.

The bonds are scheduled to sell on September 16 via competitive bid.
Proceeds will be used to fund capital improvements to the water system
(the system), to refund previously issued water revenue bonds (series
2005) and the board's subordinate line of credit, and to pay costs of
issuance.

In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following bonds issued by the board:

--$13.1 million in outstanding senior lien water revenue bonds;

--$363.9 million in outstanding master resolution water revenue bonds.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

An irrevocable and nonexclusive pledge of and a lien upon the system's
net revenues on a basis subordinate to the outstanding senior lien
bonds; the senior lien is closed.

AFFORDABLE RATES: User charges are expected to remain at or below
Fitch's affordability threshold of 1% of median household income (MHI),
even with likely rate increases to service additional debt over the
intermediate term.

FAVORABLE BUT RISING DEBT BURDEN: Current debt-per-customer and per
capita ratios are near the average for the rating category. However, the
board's 10-year capital improvement program (CIP) is substantial and
will likely worsen debt ratios over the next few years. Fitch believes
that as long as other measures of the systems' financial profile remain
sound the current rating of the system should not be pressured.

BROAD AND DEEP ECONOMY: The system serves a sizeable, diverse and
relatively stable economy.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

MAINTENANCE OF FINANCIAL PROFILE: Maintenance of healthy DSC and
liquidity balances will be necessary to balance expected increases in
debt levels.

CREDIT PROFILE

Denver serves as the hub of commerce for a large 10-county metropolitan
statistical area (MSA) and as the seat of state government. Denver's
water system provides water service to approximately 1.3 million
residents of Denver and much of the surrounding MSA. Areas outside the
city are served through approximately 66 treated water distributors that
purchase water primarily based on long-term contracts.

FINANCIALS REMAIN STRONG AMID WEATHER-DRIVEN VOLATILITY

The system's financial performance proved steadfast in fiscal 2013, with
all-in DSC finishing at 2.8x (versus Fitch's 'AAA' median of 2.6x)
despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 15%. The revenue decrease
was attributable to drought conditions in 2012 forcing the
implementation of watering restrictions through part of 2013 which then
led to a decline in water sales. The 2012 drought was then followed by a
wet 2013 which, although such restrictions had been lifted, further
exacerbated sales declines as customers had lessened irrigation needs.

The board's five-year financial forecast demonstrates all-in DSC
remaining strong at 2.2x in fiscal 2014 and then improving to
approximately 3.5x in fiscal 2017 and 2018. Assumptions utilized, which
appear reasonable to Fitch, include a 3.5% rate-driven revenue increase
approved for fiscal 2014 and 2% revenue increases thereafter. Capital
expenditures, which will be funded in part by bond proceeds, are
expected to increase while operations and maintenance costs are
projected to remain relatively flat.

Liquidity over the past five years has also been good with available
cash averaging 322 days of operational costs over this period. However
liquidity did decrease to 245 day's cash in fiscal 2013 as revenue
declines required more cash spending for capital.

LARGE CAPITAL PROGRAM WILL INCREASE DEBT PROFILE

The fiscal 2014-2018 CIP is large at about $944 million. Capital costs
have increased from earlier CIPs largely to shore up supply. The largest
capital project is enlarging the Gross Reservoir, the primary storage
facility for the Moffat System in the northern part of the service area.
Adding capacity in this reservoir will help address the projected
long-term supply shortage, assist in dealing with future droughts, and
serve as a safety net if the south end of the water system faces
unexpected challenges such as those caused by wildfires in Denver
Water's watersheds. Recent approval by the Army Corps of Engineers
should help this project move forward after a long period of
coordination and analysis. Efforts to increase capacity in the northern
portion of the service area also include treatment plant upgrades and
rehabilitation. At $1,326, fiscal 2013 debt-per-customer is slightly
above the 'AAA' category median and is projected to increase a bit
further over the next five years due to the capital spending described
above.

RATE FLEXIBILITY

Despite frequent and ongoing rate hikes, the board maintains financial
flexibility through its competitive rates in comparison to other
Colorado water distributors. At 0.7% of MHI, the average monthly bill
for in-city residents at $28 (assuming usage of 7,500 gallons per month)
is below Fitch's 1% affordability threshold. Taking into account
projected increases through fiscal 2018, system rates should remain
affordable.

SUFFICIENT INTERMEDIATE-TERM WATER SUPPLY

Water supply is derived from renewable mountain snowmelt from an
extensive 4,000-square-mile watershed, which replenishes the system's 12
raw water reservoirs annually. Unpredictable weather in the service area
over the past several years has led to periods of drought followed by
stretches of heavy snow and rain. Most recently, reservoir levels began
2013 below normal, leading to watering restrictions, but were followed
by multiple snowstorms and flooding later in the year. This activity
resulted in storage reservoirs reaching peak levels in September of 2013
and the subsequent removal of watering restrictions. Based on the 5-year
average daily usage of 182 million gallons per day, water supplies are
more than adequate to meet customer demands.

ROBUST SERVICE AREA

As both a regional and economic center and the state capital, Denver's
economic base is diverse. The Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA's
unemployment rate of 6.4% in March 2014 was slightly better than the
state (6.6%) and national averages (6.8%). Wealth levels for the MSA are
slightly below that of the state and nation. Fitch rates Denver's
unlimited tax general obligation bonds 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's U.S.
Municipal Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria, this action was
additionally informed by information from Creditscope and the Municipal
Advisory Council of Texas.

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