If past form is anything to go by, a decision will be made by EU leaders at their June 1999 summit and will then have to be endorsed by the European Parliament at its first plenary session in July after next summer's Euro-elections.

Between now and then, a single unexpected throw of the dice could easily unseat any front runner. Six months ago, the smart money was on former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González, a Europhile who was out of a job and who, although a Socialist, got on well with the EU's most dominant politician, the then German Christian Democrat Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

It wasn't so much Kohl's defeat in September's general election which appears to have scuppered González' chances as the worry that skeletons might be found in his cupboard as the Spanish judiciary tries to get to the bottom of the dirty war between the government and Basque separatists.

Two other Spaniards have briefly featured in the presidential sweepstakes, but have now dropped out of the frame. Former European Affairs Minister Carlos Westendorp, who skilfully chaired the preparations for the Amsterdam Treaty Intergovernmental Conference, was one; but he appears exhausted after his exertions in the Balkans.

The second is his former superior as foreign minister, Javier Solana, whose international star has risen since he became secretary-general of NATO and whose reputation is now inextricably tied up with the western military alliance's success in corralling combative Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. He, however, is understood to be keen to return to domestic politics after his Brussels stint.

Another Iberian Socialist's name has been linked to the post: that of Portuguese Premier António Guterres. He would be a popular choice, but his voter-appeal is too important to his party to allow him to come to Brussels.

The only non-Socialist name to have surfaced in public is the current President Jacques Santer. He is widely believed to fancy another five-year term, but that prospect has been dealt a near fatal blow by the departure of one of his strongest allies, Kohl, who cajoled him into taking the job in the first place. Nor have his chances been helped by the fact that 11 EU leaders are Socialists and are likely to be more sympathetic to someone closer to their own ideals.

The strongest contender now appears to be former Italian Premier Romano Prodi. Like González, his profile fits the traditional criteria the next president would be expected to meet: a Europhile centre-left politician and former southern European prime minister who is now free of the burdens of government.

Prodi would be the first Italian - and southern - president of the Commission since Franco Maria Malfatti in the early Seventies. The 59-year-old economicsprofessor won widespread admiration for his success in preparing Italy for monetary union and might relish a new international challenge following the recent collapse of his coalition government.

His arrival in Brussels would coincide with an increase in the president's powers and with what is looking like an unusually large turnover of Commissioners; an ideal opportunity for a strong individual to stamp his mark.

Both vice-presidents (Manuel Marin from Spain and Sir Leon Brittan from the UK) will be leaving, making it easier to reshape the vice-presidential role as some in the Commission are now contemplating.

Prodi's arrival would mean the certain departure of one, or possibly both, of the current Italian Commissioners: Emma Bonino (humanitarian aid) and Mario Monti (internal market and taxation).

Those predicting a large-scale exodus also believe that Greece's Christos Papoutsis (energy) and Spain's Marcelino Oreja (institutional matters) might decide to return home, although the latter may remain in Brussels if guaranteed a sufficiently senior post.

Domestic political considerations are likely to be the most telling factor in determining whether three Commissioners who wish to stay on - Pádraig Flynn (Ireland, social affairs), Franz Fischler (Austria, agriculture) and Yves-Thibault de Silguy (France, finance) - manage to do so.

The only two members of the current team who appear to be firm favourites to serve another five years are the Socialists Monika Wulf-Mathies (Germany, regional policy) and Neil Kinnock (UK, transport), probably joined by their Finnish colleague Erkki Liikanan (budget).