2019 Byron Nelson Classic DFS Preview

It certainly was
an interesting week on the PGA Tour last week from both a viewing and DFS
standpoint at the Wells Fargo Championship. We saw Max Homa hold off Justin
Rose and Rory McIlroy to secure his first career win. Rory’s Sunday struggles
retuned after taking a brief hiatus at The Players Championship. We also saw a
flurry of high W/Ds from some high profile DFS darlings as Sam Burns, Gary
Woodland, and Ben An succumbed to injury or illness at high ownership. That can
be the nature of the game at times so we will move on the Bryson Nelson Classic
held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in the Dallas area.

Trinity Forest Golf Club: Par 71, 7,470 yards. This is
one of the newest courses/venues played on the PGA Tour as the Coore/Crenshaw
design enters its second year as host to the Byron Nelson Classic. The course
was constructed on a landfill and is billed as an “American Style links course”
as it runs over undulating terrain and is completely void of trees with the
exception of the course property boundaries. In an attempt to have the course
run fast, zoysia grass was installed on the fairways, however, the climate and
soil of the area, along with the Bermuda greens, prevent the course from
playing like any of the traditional links style courses we would see in
Scotland for example. Last year the course played as the 45th
easiest on the PGA Tour so we can expect to see some low scores this week as evidenced
by five separate holes seeing birdie or better rates of 40% or higher. The
fairways at Trinity Forest are among the widest on Tour but players still need
to place it off the tee to have the best approach angle to position themselves
for the many birdies they will need to accumulate in order to win this week.
Average approach shot distribution has clustered in the 175+ yard range. The
greens are also some of the largest players will see this year so this, along
with the heavy undulations leads to one of the highest rates of three putts on
Tour. For those players who miss the greens, getting up and down will be more difficult
than the average venue. Heavy rain is in the forecast for Wednesday so we can
expect damp conditions this year along with some moderate winds on Thursday and
Friday.

In terms of
stats, because of how easy the course played last year and the damp conditions
scoring will be key this week. Because of that, I’m heavily weighting
opportunities gained and birdie or better percentage to try and identify
golfers who are putting themselves in position and converting birdies in
bunches. Also, because of the length of the course and the soft conditions,
strokes gained off the tee and driving distance will likely be a key to
success. Lastly, with the large undulating greens I will be taking a look at
three putt avoidance as in a scoring fest, three putting for bogey or for par
after reaching a par five in two, will be easy ways to prevent players from
keeping up with the field.

Here are our top
stats to consider this week:

Opportunities Gained

Birdie or Better Percentage

Strokes Gained off the Tee

Three Putt Avoidance

With the PGA
Championship next week, this may be one of the weakest fields we see all year
as Trinity Forest with its wide-open layout has little in common with strong
test players will see next week at Bethpage Black. Because of this, many of the
top golfers in the world have chosen to complete their final preparations for
the year’s second major either in the Long Island area or at home. Brooks
Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama will be headlining the field this week along with
Trinity Forest member Jordan Spieth before we see a steep drop off in avg OWGR.
In a field lacking star power, it will be interesting to see what the featured
groups will be as those of us tuning in to PGA Tour Live on Thursday and Friday
will likely get to follow some players that normally do not get that much
coverage. Even though many in the golf world are looking ahead to next week,
the DFS sites have put up some nice prize pools so it is definitely worth taking
the time to dig into some research and put together a roster. Here are three
targets for your cash game / single entry tournament (GPP) lineups on DraftKings:

Upper
Mid-Range – Sungjae Im – $9,600

On a week with some
question marks in the high price range, starting your lineups with Sungjae Im provides
some stability. He profiles well statistically as he is long off the tee with a
strong approach game and ranks sixth in the field in birdie or better rate. In
terms of course design, I do see some similarities between Trinity Forest and
the Corales course where Sungjae recorded a top ten finish in March.

Upper
Mid-Range – Keith Mitchell – $9,100

Keith Mitchell
has been riding some great form ever since the Tour left the West Coast that
included a win at the Honda Classic. On a course with wide open fairways and
Bermuda greens where aggressive play is needed, Keith Mitchell profiles as a
great building block for lineups this week. Last week at Wells Fargo as gained
9.2 strokes off the tee and on approaches on his way to an 8th place
finish and, if not for a bad second round, would have been right there on
Sunday. Also, he is still not in the field for the US Open so he does have some
added motivation turn in some good finishes over the next few weeks to get in
to the OWGR top 60.

Value
– Trey Mullinax– $7,600

Although he did
not play here last year, Trinity Forest profiles out as a great fit for the
course and if the conditions are damp he will gain a nice advantage off the tee
as he ranks first in the field in carry distance. Trey also comes into the week
in outstanding form with his iron game as he has gained 13.6 strokes on
approaches over the past two weeks.

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Tom Wyckoff

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[…] We have a decent field this week highlighted by Spieth, Reed, Koepka, Kauffman, Palmer. I doubt any of these guys will win it this week based on “first-time winners” trend on tour this year. If you’re smart, pick a new PGA tour and throw some cash on him at good eyes. Check out our DFS blog: […]