According to data provided to the Guardian by the group, 37% of young Americans in six key states say they will definitely vote or have already voted. In the 2014 midterms, only 23% voted.
Photograph: Michael N/Pacific/BarcroftImages

Youth turnout in the 2018 midterm elections is expected to surge, according to new polling from NextGen America, a liberal advocacy group led by the billionaire Tom Steyer.

NextGen America defines young voters as those between the age of 18 and 35. According to data provided to the Guardian by the group, 37% of young Americans in six key states say they will definitely vote or have already voted. In the 2014 midterms, only 23% voted.

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The data indicates that these voters lean heavily Democratic, preferring a Democrat to a Republican on a generic ballot by 59% to 33%. They also expressed a deep dissatisfaction with Donald Trump, with only 28% saying they would vote for his re-election as president. Only 30% of those polled had a favorable opinion of Trump, including a mere 25% of those who identified as independents.

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The states from which the voters were drawn – Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin – have been the focus of NextGen America’s efforts to turn out young support for Democratic candidates. The group has been active in 11 states in all and has spent $33m.

It also measured voter intensity among young voters, finding that young Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting in the six key states than in three states, Missouri, New Mexico and Tennessee, where the group has not been active.

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Demographically, the data showed significant divides. The gender gap seen across the electorate persisted, with women far more likely to support a Democratic candidate. Young female voters supported Democrats by 64% to 26%. Men backed them 52% to 41%.

A divide was also found regarding education. Those without college degrees supported Democrats by 54% to 36%. Those with degrees did so by 62% to 29%.

Tom Bonier, chief executive of TargetSmart, a top Democratic data firm, told the Guardian the “youth turnout is absolutely stunning”.

He added: “Of course we were expecting to see a surge, as intensity increases across the board. What we didn’t expect was to see the largest increases coming from younger voters … this is younger voters occupying a larger share of the electorate while older voters are seeing a diminishing electorate share.”