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Severe Weather Possible Wednesday (Update!)

A violent severe weather situation is unfolding across parts of the midwest this evening with a RARE high risk alert issued by the NWS Tuesday afternoon for Nebraska and Southern Iowa.

As of early this evening storms were still developing rapidly in this region with widespread damaging wind and tornadoes possible.

As the evening progresses these storms will congeal into a larger system, possibly similar to the Derecho that moved through here back in late June of 2012. (for more on the definition of a Derecho, check out a past post here)

As we look at our Futurecast, this developing storm system will track along a warm front that will be the boundary between very warm moist air and a more stable air mass to the north. Here is a look at where Futurecast places the system by about 2 or 3 AM Wednesday morning.

As the system continues to ride along the warm front widespread damaging winds will race across Illinois and eventually into Indiana where they should begin to weaken.

By the time the storms get to Ohio in the 7 to 10 AM timeframe they will still be potentially strong with isolated damaging wind and HEAVY rain possible.

With this system essentially crossing through Illinois and Indiana overnight I do expect it to lose steam. But don’t let your guard down tomorrow morning! We’ll likely wake up to strong thunderstorms moving into West Central Ohio with the possibility of some severe producing winds over 50 or 60 mph!

The best warmth and moisture needed to sustain severe thunderstorms on Wednesday is expected to reside generally along and south of Route 30.

And a closer look…..

My thinking is that if we do get some stronger storms in the 7 to 10 AM timeframe here in West Central Ohio, that will very much inhibit our chance to see any redevelopment later in the day. Storms in the morning will likely limit our chance to see any destabilization into the early afternoon hours, but this is still something to watch VERY closely! I say this because even though it looks as if the best ingredients appear to remain just to our south, if the warm front can push its way north just another 50 miles or so we’ll be in a much more favorable situation for severe weather into the 2 to 5 PM timeframe! For now here is a look at Futurecast and where redevelopment of storms is anticipated to occur by early afternoon Wednesday.

By 6 or 7 PM the severe threat will likely come to an end.

TO SUM IT ALL UP!

There will be TWO time periods to watch for severe weather on Wednesday. The first will be 7 to 10 AM as the remnants from Tuesday evening’s storms move into West Central Ohio. The second will come in the 2 to 5 PM timeframe when redevelopment is possible around the low and warm front. Overall I believe that the timing and placement of this system is just a bit off for a larger severe weather outbreak here. The timing being that storms will be weakening overnight as they move through Illinois and Indiana and placement of the warm front being just to our south. During the two time periods I mentioned above damaging wind is my biggest concern. However, if storms can redevelop across parts of West Central Ohio Wednesday afternoon there will be a small threat for isolated tornadoes as storms fire.

You know I’ll keep you updated! Be sure to watch at 10 and 11 tonight for all the latest!