This week will mark a turning point for Europe, with the U.K. referendum on EU membership Thursday. As Paul Taylor writes for Reuters, “If Britain votes to leave the European Union, it will likely start a process of fragmentation of the political and security structures on which the post-World War II and post-Cold War European order was built.

“Even if the British step back from the brink on Thursday, the bruising legacy of the debate, the growing trend of national referendums on EU issues and the backlash against globalization and internationalized elites on both sides of the Atlantic will not fade away any time soon. How far and how fast contagion may spread in case of a Brexit vote, no one can know. Just don’t expect it to stop with one major country walking away from the EU.” http://reut.rs/1rw0q2G

FARAGE CHALLENGED TO ONE MILLION EURO BET ON BREXIT: Colorful Lithuanian MEP Antanas Guoga, a multi-millionaire from his time as poker champion ‘Tony G,’ is upping the stakes a thousand-fold on Nigel Farage’s recent £1,000 bet that a Brexit will occur. In a letter to Farage, obtained by POLITICO, Guoga writes “I am so confident that the British people will do the right thing and vote to remain in the EU that I offer a €1 million charity bet to you on Leave!” If Farage accepts, and the Leave campaign wins, Guoga will donate €1 million to the charity of Farage’s choice, and vice versa if Remain wins. Read the letter here.

**A message from Google.org: On World Refugee Day, urgent action is needed across Europe: humanitarian aid is just the start. How can technology and innovation help with integration and education? Join Google and Friends of Europe on Wednesday to find out. Register here: http://goo.gl/hAfbvs**

NETHERLANDS — EU MUST REFORM WITH OR WITHOUT BRITS: Clingendael, the Netherlands institute of international relations, writes: “Caricatures such as Boris Johnson are playing with fire … And yet we, the rest of the EU, will have to make an effort to understand the motivation behind the referendum … [there is] a mirage of trust in the economic benefits of integration … It is precisely this point that is the eye-opener in the U.K. referendum: It is the free-market loving British who do not believe in the European economic narrative.” http://bit.ly/21u4pcl

THREE CHARGED WITH TERROR OFFENSES IN BRUSSELS: After 40 house raids, 152 garage inspections and a false alarm at the Brussels Central train station, three men have been charged with “having attempted to commit a terrorist murder and for participation in the activities of a terrorist group.” The terrorists’ target was reported to have been fans watching Euro 2016 soccer matches over the weekend.Julia Fioretti, Reuters | Raf Casert, Associated Press

EXCLUSIVE — US SENATORS URGE TUSK TO EXTEND RUSSIA SANCTIONS:U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, is leading John McCain and other senators in swing states including Rob Portman (Ohio) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) to push European Council President Tusk to extend EU sanctions on Russia. Playbook obtained a copy of the letter to sent today. Read here.

**DOWNLOAD POLITICO’S EU REFERENDUM TRACKER: As Britain heads to the polls on Thursday to give their verdict on the EU, stay up to date with our EU Referendum Tracker, our new mobile product available for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Get on-the-go access to real-time data and analysis from POLITICO’s team of journalists in Brussels, London, Berlin and Paris. Download the pass, available for readers using iPhones, here: politi.co/tracker**

INTERVIEW WITH POLISH DEFENSE MINISTER MACIEREWICZ: Playbook sat down with Antoni Macierewicz, the defense minister at the heart of NATO summit preparations. Matteo Renzi might have called on Friday for closer dialogue with Russia because “Russia and the EU have common values,” but don’t expect Macierewicz to play along.

On Russia sanctions: “Sanctions are merely a response to this unprecedented, barbaric and unacceptable act of occupation and attack on an individual, independent European state [Ukraine].”

On Donald Trump’s call for more EU defense spending: “As far as Poland is concerned, we have contributed millions of people in that effort, who perished, and also we are contributing our armed forces and also we are contributing more than 2 percent of the GDP on defense.”

On defense modernization: “Poland needs to have the opportunity not only to defend itself but also to deter … [we are] creating a new service of the armed forces which is called ‘territorial defense’ or ‘home defense’ … will be equipped with state of the art weapons and they will be dedicated to countering hybrid threats … It’s not going to be something of an ad hoc group that is going to counter threats, but a highly specialized one.”

On army numbers and position: “This year there will be three brigades that will be established on the eastern front, [in 2017] more brigades towards the western direction so they will be moved more and more to the west.”

On submarines: Poland will procure new submarines “equipped with missile launchers with capability of striking targets which are far away.”

On Germany: “We have had very good cooperation … contrary to what is the media reporting … We support each other’s initiatives.” Macierewicz also said Germany will be constructive on the the rule-of-law fight the Polish government is having with the European Commission.

NATO — #DYNAMICMONGOOSE: NATO’s annual anti-submarine warfare exercise, known as ‘Dynamic Mongoose,’ kicks off today in the Norwegian Sea and features 3,000 sailors and aircrew plus Jens Stoltenberg. Why the name? NATO exercises have two-word names. The first letter of the first word indicates who’s in command (D is code for NATO’s Maritime Command in Northwood, U.K.) and the first letter of the second word indicates which services are involved (M is for “maritime”). http://bit.ly/23jW64v

EEAS — MEET HELGA SCHMID — EU’S NEW TOP DIPLOMATIC CIVIL SERVANT: Die Welt calls the Munich-born Schmid “one of the key ‘movers and shakers’ on the international diplomatic stage.”

“In her office, there is always a packed suitcase … previously served as office manager of the former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer (Green Party) … More than 200 days a year traveling … Schmid is a mixture of wisdom, strength and charm — making her an icebreaker in the rigid world of diplomacy … Schmid’s masterpiece: the solution of the nuclear conflict with Iran in July 2015.” http://bit.ly/1ScScCg

A WEEK THAT WILL DEFINE EUROPE: “Britain’s referendum could remake the EU and the U.K. Then four days later, Spain votes,” writes Pierre Briançon. “Add to this the strong showing in Italy of candidates from the Five Star movement founded less than seven years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo … polls that put François Hollande in fourth place in the opening round of France’s presidential election next year; and the far-right AfD movement that has shaken up German politics … And that’s just on this side of the Atlantic.” http://politi.co/1XyHZYT

EU BRAND GETS TOXIC — DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS (MSF) REJECTS EU FUNDING: Euroskeptics throw punches at the EU from the right. And we’ve often seen issue-by-issue complaints from the left (TTIP, GMOs etc). But with Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières rejecting all EU money for humanitarian work as a result of the bloc’s migration policy, the EU toxic level just shot up. http://politi.co/1sNB1To

Jérôme Oberreit, MSF secretary-general, said Friday that “MSF has repeatedly expressed concerns about the failures of Europe and its members to respond to humanitarian and medical needs of migrants, asylum seekers and refugees. We cannot accept money from states or institutions whose policies cause harm to people.” The group’s decision means rejecting €19 million from EU institutions, and €37 million from the governments of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, U.K., Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden.

NOW 65 MILLION DISPLACED PEOPLE: In 2015, we witnessed the largest number of globally displaced people since the aftermath of World War II, reports the United Nations. Half the refugees are children and more than half come from just three countries: Syria, Afghanistan and Somalia. “Contrary to some beliefs, the majority of displaced people were in fact hosted in poor or middle income countries, and not Europe.” http://bit.ly/26bz01D

MAYORS PUSH EU IN OPEN LETTER: “There is too much talk of quotas, numbers and borders, and not enough of people … We are a continent born out of the ruins of nationalism and war, and we thrive on peace and cooperation. Only by working together can we overcome the challenges brought on by war, poverty and persecution in other parts of the world.” http://bit.ly/1XxWKLE

EU OFFICIAL STATEMENT FOR WORLD REFUGEE DAY: Vice Presidents Frans Timmermans, Federica Mogherini, and Commissioners Mimica, Avramopoulos and Stylianides said in a joint statement that “managing migration is a challenge, which requires a global response. The EU has not and will not turn a blind eye to this crisis and we will continue to share in the global efforts to address it.” A press advisory note added: “Any sustainable solution requires close cooperation with countries of origin and transit and legal avenues for those fleeing conflict and persecution in order to reach Europe safely.”

ITALY — ROME ELECTS FIRST FEMALE MAYOR:The Euroskeptic 5Star Movement scored a major victory in Italian local elections Sunday, unseating candidates from Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party in the two traditional strongholds of Rome and Turin. The second round of local elections saw 5Star’s Virginia Raggi, a 37-year-old lawyer, win the capital with almost 67 percent of the vote to become Rome’s first female mayor. In Turin in the north, Chiara Appendino, a 31-year-old manager, won with almost 55 percent. More details: http://politi.co/21um6bG

FRANCE — HOLLANDE TO BE SUBJECT TO A PRIMARY VOTE: Sitting presidents normally get a free pass, but not this time, reports Nicholas Vinocur. http://politi.co/26b89Th

SPAIN — MEET THE OTHER LEFTIST TOPPING SPANISH POPULARITY POLLS: “The most popular politician in Spain is a 30-year-old Marxist economist who wants to abolish the monarchy.” Meet Alberto Garzon, the leader of Izquierda Unida, or United Left. In his own words: “Something is happening in this country when someone like me — who is a communist, who wants a republic — emerges as the most valued politician in the polls.” Tobias Buck http://on.ft.com/1YB7bh3

CHINA — LETTER FROM THE CROSSROADS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD: “The Chinese town of Khorgas, on the border with Kazakhstan and a strategic crossroads along the new Silk Road, can’t be found on printed maps. Built from scratch over the past three years, it has quickly become a sprawling grid of broad avenues with the feel of a Californian town … As the city’s amenities are installed, the population already hovers around 100,000.” http://politi.co/1sNDBsC

BREXIT ROUND-UP …

POLITICO CAUCUS EXPECTS REMAIN WIN: The POLITICO Caucus on Brexit polled 74 leading policymakers and influencers. The group, which included EU ambassadors, top advisers in the Brussels institutions, Continental CEOs and the deputy secretary-general of NATO, spoke on condition that they be quoted anonymously. Only 14 percent expect the U.K. to quit the 28-nation bloc, while 55 percent said the referendum was too close to call. Some cautiously predicted the polls would “suddenly reverse in the last few days,” that “inertia will win out over emotion,” and that common sense and a preference for the status quo would triumph over “the incalculable uncertainty.” But many were far more pessimistic. Full results: http://politi.co/1SdbY0A

CAMERON INVOKES CHURCHILL — ‘DON’T BE QUITTERS:’ David Cameron urged millions of undecided voters Sunday not to be “scared out” of Europe. http://politi.co/1WXaKi6

ORBAN TO PLACE UK NEWSPAPER ADS URGING ‘REMAIN’ VOTE: He might be one of the most critical leaders when it comes to EU policy, but Viktor Orbán also knows he needs allies inside the system if he wants reform. Cue this newspaper ad buy. Gergely Szakacs and Michael Nienaber report http://reut.rs/1UiwnJl

‘EUROPE NEEDS THE BRITISH:’ Der Spiegel writes: “This vote is … about nothing less than the future of the peace project started in 1946.” http://bit.ly/28OKVVw

THE MAKING OF BREXIT BORIS — FORMER JOURNALISTS RECALL HIS BRUSSELS YEARS: It seems they all agree on one thing — Boris Johnson was prone to exaggeration. http://yhoo.it/1YzctJy

BRUSSELS EVENT TO CELEBRATE JO COX’S LIFE: The day before the referendum, Jo Cox would have turned 42. Her Brussels friends are organizing one of a series of simultaneous events globally, on the theme #moreincommon (“We are far more united and have far more in common with each other than that which divides us,”Jo Cox had said). The events are designed “to celebrate Jo’s warmth, love, energy, passion, flair, Yorkshire heritage and belief in the humanity of every person in every place … to treat everyone with respect and dignity, especially those we disagree with.” Federica Mogherini has urged Europeans to answer this call: http://bit.ly/1rvYx68

CLINTON’S PATH TO VICTORY: Shane Goldmacher and Annie Karni. “Rather than expand the 2012 map in any significant way, the Clinton campaign and its allies want to replicate it. They are obsessed with choking off Trump’s narrower path, hoping to strike a decisive victory in Florida — multiple Clinton officials declared there is nearly no path for Trump without it.” http://politi.co/200c5mm

TRUMP’S PATH TO VICTORY … It’s a long shot, essentially. “Pennsylvania is increasingly viewed as Trump’s best pickup chance — the state that, provided he wins Ohio and Florida, could get him to 270.” http://politi.co/24Z2sW8

TRUMP IN THE DUMPS: Is it too late to pivot when 70 percent of Americans don’t like you? Maureen Dowd http://nyti.ms/1rvZLyg

BERNIE’S $38,000 A DAY TAXPAYER FOLLY: He can’t win the Democratic nomination short of a miracle, but until he quits, the Secret Service has to follow him everywhere at great expense. John Wagner http://wapo.st/24ZqHDB

THE DEMOCRATIC SPLIT:New Republic’s July/August issue’s cover story is on 19 reasons the Democrats will remain divided. Contributors include by Naomi Klein, David Simon, and Jill Filipovic: http://bit.ly/1Xnh2qW

BRUSSELS CENTER PEDESTRIAN ZONE: Small business owners call for lower car parking fees to help them transition to being in a car-free zone, and Brussels mayor suggests someone other than the business owners is behind the legal challenge to the zone. Belga http://bit.ly/1YBaKUp

**A message from Google.org: Kiron University doesn’t have a single lecture hall, but it transforms its students’ lives. Every single one of them has refugee status. Google and Friends of Europe want to know more about projects like this, so Kiron’s co-founder, Vincent Zimmer, joins a line-up including Google.org’s Jacquelline Fuller and Jeremy Lachal of Libraries Without Borders to discuss how technology can help in the refugee crisis. For example, migrants fleeing war, violence and extreme deprivation usually travel with smartphones, providing a connection to loved ones but also a tool for skills training, navigation information and education. Google helped the International Rescue Committee (IRC) build the Crisis Info Hub – an open-source, mobile, portal providing credible information for safer journeys. Join Wednesday’s discussion by registering for free here: http://goo.gl/hAfbvs**