Swing to Labor in early voting, analyst

The Victorian Labor opposition is experiencing a swing of 2.5 per cent in its favour in early counting in the state election, ABC election analyst Antony Green says.

"It's not enough to call it but we are starting to see the shift that has been expected," he told the ABC.

"It's hard to do it in terms of individual seats but at the moment we are seeing that those figures will indicate Labor will gain seats at this election."

Labor needs two seats to make the coalition Victoria's first one-term government since Labor was voted out in 1955.

Before the election, the coalition held 44 seats in Victoria's 88-seat parliament, Labor has 43, with one independent.

With 6.7 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Green said there were a lot of seats in doubt, but the coalition had 34 and Labor 35.

"We have got a lot of seats in doubt. I will say this at the moment, eight of the Coalition's most marginal seats, Labor is currently ahead in plus another two further down the pendulum," Mr Green said.

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Liberal MP Mary Wooldridge, who's on the ABC panel, said there was "still some way to go but early signs are not positive."

Former premier Steve Bracks said there was a good chance Labor could pick up Burwood from the Liberals.

Later, Mr Green firmed up his prediction, saying Labor was swing was now three per cent.

"Labor is on the cusp of victory. I'm not prepared to call it yet. They are ahead in nearly everything," he said after nearly 90 minutes of the count.

"Labor is not behind in any seats the Liberals are trying to win.

Mr Bracks said he was confident.

"I'm reading it as a very likely Labor win. I'd say it's almost certain now," he told the ABC.

Ms Wooldridge was still holding out hope, even though the ABC had Labor on 44 of the 45 seats it needs.

"I know Antony's getting confident but I still think there are some individual seats to play out before we can make some conclusions," she said.

Former federal treasurer Peter Costello, after just under 30 per cent of the vote had been counted, warned that the Liberal Party had to win in Ballarat if it was to protect against losses in the so-called Melbourne sandbelt seats.

"I don't like what I'm seeing," said Mr Costello, who is on the Nine Network panel.

"I think that the Liberal Party had to win in Ballarat to take out some insurance against the sandbelt."

The Greens also look like they will pick up two seats in inner-Melbourne.

The Nationals are in danger of losing Shepparton, which was supposed to be one of the party's safest seats.

With 49 per cent of the vote counted, it appeared the seat would go to independent Suzanna Sheed, who had 35 per cent of the vote, against 34.8 per cent to sitting member Greg Barr.

"She's causing a real stir. It's supposed to be a safe National Party seat," Nine political heavyweight Laurie Oakes said.

"You can see an upset in one of the safest seats the National Party had."

Mr Bracks told the ABC the failure of the Abbott government to step in to help SPC was "a significant factor" in Shepparton.

"The combination of Barnaby Joyce, Tony Abbott as well - who probably in a sense is the gift that keeps on giving," Mr Bracks said, adding the Abbott government had had an impact on the state vote.

"... he was absolutely toxic in Victoria, really, ever since the budget."

Labor's Lisa Neville said it appeared she had retained the marginal seat of Bellarine in Geelong.

"I think we have been able to hold onto the seat ... with what looks like a six or seven per cent swing," she told the Seven Network.

"It will become clearer."

She said it had been a community-based campaign.

The sitting Liberal member for the bellwether seat of Bentleigh, Elizabeth Miller, would not concede despite a 2.4 per cent swing to Labor's Nick Staikos.

"We have a lot of pre-polling votes and postal votes to come in. I think we have a way to go," she said.

Former premier Jeff Kennett said the only seat the Liberals could probably claim was Ripon in the Ballarat area, which was held by Labor but become notionally Liberal under last year's boundary redraw.

"I'm prepared to concede and I congratulate Daniel Andrews," he told the Seven Network.

The Greens have secured its first lower house seat in Victoria with Ellen Sandell winning the seat of Melbourne, while Richmond is also a possibility.

However, Mr Bracks was not prepared to give up Richmond.

Labor deputy leader James Merlino claimed victory in the marginal seat of Monbulk, which became notionally Liberal with a 1.1 per cent margin under a redistribution.

"Tonight, it is every bit as sweet as when we won the seat from the Liberal Party in 2002. We had to win this seat back for the Labor Party," he said.

"This was a victory on the things that really matter for people."

Labor's Sharon Knight claimed the ultra marginal seat of Wendouree, in the Ballarat district, which became notionally Liberal with a 0.1 per cent margin under boundary changes.

"I feel humble and proud the people of Wendouree have chosen me for another term," she told the Seven Network.