Transcript

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Draft 9/7/01
U.S. Federal Statistics and Statistical Ethics:
The Role of the American Statistical Association s
Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice*
by
William Seltzer
Senior Research Scholar
Department of Sociology and Anthropology
Fordham University
Bronx, NY 10458
(seltzer@fordham.edu)
*
The paper is a revised and expanded version of a presentation made at a seminar
organized by the Methodology Section, Washington Statistical Society, February 5, 2001. The
present version benefitted greatly from the comments of John Gardenier, Nancy Gordon, and
Virginia de Wolf, the seminar s discussant, chair, and organizer, respectively, as well as the
helpful comments and suggestions of John C. Bailar III, Tom Jabine and other members of the
American Statistical Association s (ASA) Committee on Professional Ethics of which I am
currently chair. The views expressed in the paper are my own and not necessarily those of those
who provided comments, the ASA Committee on Professional Ethics, or the ASA itself.

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Abstract
The paper first discusses the relevance of ethical norms to government statistical work (Section 1)
and then reviews some of the harms flowing from ethical lapses, with a special emphasis on those
relatively rare instances when governmental data systems threatened or substantially harmed
vulnerable population subgroups (Sections 2 and 3). The paper goes on to examine ethical norms
as one of a series of safeguards available to protect against threats of serious misuse involving
government statistical system (Section 4). The final three sections of the paper address,
respectively, the functional roles of ethical codes or guidelines (Section 5), the guidance provided
by the ASA s Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice for government statisticians (Section 6)
and a presentation of specific strategies for coping with and helping to prevent ethical threats to
government statistical work (Section 7). While the primary focus of the paper is the U.S. federal
statistical system, the issues raised have wider applicability.
Keywords: government statistics, statistical policy, ethics
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1. Introduction: Why ethics?
Why do we need to talk about ethics? In particular, why do government statisticians need to talk
about and be aware of ethics? After all, there are laws and executive orders to guide us,
instructions from supervisors, and the imperatives of science attributable to the field of statistics
or to one or another subject-matter areas related to specific fields of application.
Unfortunately, these different sources of guidance are sometimes in conflict with one another.
The opportunities for conflict multiply when one tries to take into account other important
influences on one s functioning as an official statistician: user requests, the policy concerns of
elected officials, and one s personal tastes, preferences, and values. More importantly,
intentionally or not, the actions of government statisticians can lead to a variety of types of harms.
Ethical norms add another dimension to thinking about our actions as statisticians. In addition,
they can provide guidance in the process of weighing and sorting through conflicting demands in
ways that avoid or minimize the potential for harm.
Some believe that statisticians and other professionals should obtain any needed moral guidance
solely from religious or philosophical teachings and not from a professional or scientific
association. However, religion and philosophy, while providing over-arching general guidance,
are rarely able to directly address the specific issues and associated threats that may arise in any
given scientific field.
Others have argued against ethical codes or standards on the grounds that it is enough for us to be
good statisticians scientifically and obey the law. Those advancing this position are on
questionable ground. The view that moral issues play no role in science and governmental
operations was one of the defenses unsuccessfully offered by those found guilty of war crimes and
crimes against humanity at the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunals for planning and carrying out
medical experiments on concentration camp inmates during WWII [Caplan, 1992: 267]. This
international judgment is also reflected in U.S. federal policy. For example, a 1961 NIH
handbook described the task of those reviewing the use of volunteer human subjects in clinical
research, reviewers are guided by both moral and scientific principles [Glantz, 1992: 186].
Subsequent federal legislation has mandated that ethical issues be addressed when research is
planned, reviewed, and implemented (see, for example, various revisions of chapter 46 of Title 45
of the Code of Federal Regulations).
The primary set of issues that has motivated much work on research ethics over the past 60 years
in the United States and elsewhere has been experiments involving physical or psychological
interventions, including the withholding of standard therapies, that may adversely affect the health
or well-being of individual research subjects. Commonly cited examples of ethically-flawed
research include the medical experiments carried out by the Nazis in World War II [Annas and
Grodin, 1992], the U.S. Public Health Service s Tuskegee syphilis study [Jones, 1983], and
Milgram s experiments involving the administration of simulated electrical shocks [Reynolds,
1979: 123-133].
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Because such examples seem to be so far removed from their own work, government statisticians,
at least those working outside public health and biostatistical applications, may be tempted to
consider a discussion of ethical issues as beyond their immediate concern. However, as
summarized in section 2 below, other types of harm have been associated with government
statistical work. Even the War Crimes Tribunal that tried the Doctors Case at Nuremberg
moved beyond medical experimentation to include a nonmedical crime involving data collection,
admittedly of an extreme form. One element of the Doctors Case, and in the language of the
Chief Counsel at Nuremberg, Telford Taylor, perhaps the most utterly repulsive charges in the
entire indictment [Annas and Grodin, 1992: 84], pertained to the identification of a sample of
Jewish-Bolshevik prisoners (later extended to some concentration camp inmates), the collection
of a range of physical, social, and demographic data from these sample cases, and the preservation
of these data, along with the skulls of these persons after their death was induced, to complete
an anthropological collection at the University of Strasbourg [1992: 84-85; 100; Lifton, 1986:
284-287]. In the Tribunal s judgment, this crime was explicitly included as one of the elements
that established the guilt of those involved in war crimes and crimes against humanity [Annas and
Grodin, 1992: 100].
The balance of the paper addresses the various kinds of harm that have sometimes been associated
with government statistical work (section 2) and the factors that seem to be have been associated
with some of the gravest harms (section 3). The paper then takes up the topic of ethics as one of
several safeguards against serious harm (section 4) and the varied functional roles that ethical
norms have served in different professions (section 5). In section 6, the paper describes the
American Statistical Association s (ASA) Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice [ASA, 1999]
in general terms and discusses those portions of the guidelines of special relevance for
government statistical work. The paper concludes (section 7) with some suggestions for coping
with ethical threats arising in government statistical work, particularly threats affecting the federal
statistical system. These suggestions are presented under two broad headings: coping strategies
and prevention strategies.
Although the focus of the paper is the U.S. federal statistical system, most of the issues raised
have wider applicability. Those working with government statistics in other counties will certainly
have to take into account variations in national laws and policies related to official statistics and
the legal obligations and responsibilities associated with their conditions of employment.
Nevertheless, with regards to official statistics, the ASA s ethics guidelines, the International
Statistical Institute s Declaration on Professional Ethics [International Statistical Institute,
1986] and the United Nations Statistical Commission s Fundamental Principles of Official
Statistics [United Nations Economic and Social Council,1994] all reflect a common set of ethical
norms.
2. Harm
In thinking about the harm sometimes associated with the work of government statisticians, I have
found it useful to distinguish between what might be termed traditional harm and extraordinary
harm. The reason the distinction is made, and the reason so much attention is given in the paper
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to the latter, is that this type of harm has only been recently identified as a so urce of concern in
government statistics. Moreover, while this most serious harm is comparatively rare, it must be
fully taken into account in government statistical policy, given its substantial impact both in
human terms and on the image of the government statistical service. As has been argued
elsewhere, policy discussions about nuclear safety and technical work on nuclear power, do not
ignore the events at Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, even though they are recognized as rare
[Seltzer, 1998: 537].
A. Traditional Harm. By traditional harm I refer to t hose professional sins that have
traditionally concerned us as statisticians: cooking data, sloppy or deliberately distorted analysis,
the use of methods or concepts designed to obtain a predetermined result, as well as the violation
of more general ethical norms such as using the ideas or language of colleagues without proper
acknowledgment or helping or hindering the careers of people one supervises for reasons
unrelated to their job performance. Needless to say by referring to this class of harms as
traditional, I neither condone them or minimize their importance. Indeed, these more traditional
forms of harm are far more common and are found at various times in countries at all levels of
development than the extraordinary harms discussed in the next section.
One set of traditional harms that are of particular concern to government statisticians are those
associated with attacks on the statistical system, its outputs (including, data, concepts, and
classifications), staff, and the leadership of the system. These attacks are often related to
improper political influence.
B. Extraordinary Harm. In contrast to traditional harm, I use the term extraordinary harm to
mean the use of the statistical system and closely related information systems to attack the
population itself, usually members of vulnerable population subgroups. These extraordinary
harms have in the past included identifying and targeting individuals for forced migration, crimes
against humanity, and genocide.
Recent research findings on the misuse of population data systems to assist in the perpetration of
major human rights abuses [Seltzer, 1998; Søbye, 1998; Seltzer and Anderson, 2000] and
summarized in Seltzer and Anderson [2001] make it clear that otherwise benign statistical
operations can be the source of extraordinary harm and that otherwise well-qualified statisticians
and data specialists can actively advance this harm. An indication of the nature of the problem
may be seen from Table 1 below, reproduced from Seltzer and Anderson [2001]. Three different
types of data are distinguished in Table 1: macro data, meso data, and micro data. Macro data
refer to tabulated aggregates for national or large geographic areas, meso data to tabulated data
for sufficiently small geographic areas that the results can be used operationally to identify and
target a vulnerable population subgroup, and micro data identifiable records for each individual.
Over the years several different frameworks for examining harm associated with government
statistical or data programs have been used. One approach, taken by Duncan et al. [1993], was to
distinguish between disclosure of information about identifiable individuals and any harm that
might result from such disclosures. Seltzer [1994] used an eleven category framework for
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examining specific threats to the integrity of government statistical programs.1 However, using
these analytic approaches, both Duncan et al. [1993] and Seltzer [1994] underplayed or ignored
the complicity of statistical systems and personnel in gross human rights abuses.
I believe, however, that the determination of whether or not a specific activity gives rise to harm
may itself be an ethical trap that can catch those who are unprepared. For example, another of
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Source: Seltzer and Anderson, 2001.
the defenses offered by the doctors who carried out medical experiments on concentration camp
inmates during WWII was that the research subjects "were doomed to die anyway" [Caplan,
1992: 266]. Indeed, no harm is often interpreted as "no added harm" or "no added risk of harm."
Along the same lines, it has been said that the Dutch Jews would have been rounded up for
deportation and the Japanese Americans would have been interned, regardless of the actions of
those involved with the data systems that assisted in these endeavors. Implicit in these statements
is the view that the statisticians and the others involved in these data systems didn't really cause
harm and so did nothing really wrong.2 Using almost the same language, Jones [1981: 207]
observed that a number of health officials associated with the Tuskegee syphilis study seemed to
justify the continuation of that study, even after penicillin became available, on the grounds that
the research subjects were now beyond medical help, thus strongly implying that no real harm
had been done...
3. Factors Contributing to Extraordinary Harm
No rigorous study has yet attempted to identify the causes of extraordinary harm attributable to
governmental statistical systems and related data operations or the technical or managerial staff
involved. However, on the basis of the limited research into the misuse or attempted misuse of
population data systems associated with major human rights abuses it is possible to hypothesize a
number of factors that contribute to such ethical lapses or at least are possible indicators of such
lapses. This process of hypothesizing is assisted by research in the more widely studied area of
biomedical ethics.
The contributing factors (or indicators) so far identified relate to the motivations of the
perpetrators and their explicit or implicit ethical perspectives, the circumstances of the victims,
and the process by which harm takes place. With regard to motivation, from the 20th century
cases studied so far, which are not necessarily representative of all cases, ideology, patriotism, and
fear seem less decisive factors in complicity in the misuse of population data systems than
bureaucratic opportunism and professional zeal [Seltzer, 1998; Seltzer and Anderson, 2001].3
This finding is similar to the observation that the willingness of non-Nazi German medical
scientists to teach anti-Semitic racial hygiene could be attributed to the fact that they welcomed
the opportunity of translating their theoretical research into government policy [David,
Fleischhacker, and Höhn,1988: 89] and Friedlander s observations about the motivations of the
managers and supervisors of the Nazi euthanasia program [1995: 196] that
Career considerations undoubtedly were the most important reason [they] agreed
to direct the killings. . . . These young men had reached positions commonly
considered important and influential. In addition, these jobs involved an
assignment that was secret, sensitive, and significant. They operated at the center
of events.
In characterizing the motivations of individual U.S. Public Health Service doctors associated with
the Tuskegee syphilis study Jones refers to their scientific interest and reformer s zeal [1981:
131] and that [171]
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They were crusaders, true believers. Safeguarding t he public s health was their
mission, and as zealots they had a tendency to overstate the challenges they
confronted.
Given their single-minded zeal, it is not surprising that such individuals generally seemed to give
little attention to ethical norms in their working world [Jones, 1981: 144, 190] or that the ethical
norms they did rely on were largely based on utilitarian principles, particularly those stressing the
greatest good for the greatest number or those in which presumed social beneficence usually
trumped individual harm [Caplan, 1992: 267-268; Jones, 1981: 194-196].
One common thread that runs through the gravest abuses in statistics, and many of the examples
of such abuse in the biomedical field, is that victims are members of socially or politically
vulnerable groups. Of course, in the field of population statistics, the victims (Jews, Gypsies,
Japanese Americans, Tutsis) were explicitly chosen because they were members of a vulnerable
population group. Finally, again and again, we see very grave harms emerge from minor wrongs
or individual special cases. For example, the forced euthanasia programs in Nazi Germany
began with a case based ostensibly on a plea from the father of a very retarded infant to end the
child s life [Lifton, 1986: 50], but these programs were quickly expanded and extended in scope.
Similarly, the cooperation of the U.S. Census Bureau with the military authorities on the West
Coast in 1941 and 1942 began by supplying information to the military intelligence agencies
requested for individual investigations in a few census tracts and quickly escalated to providing far
more detailed and extensive information and services that assisted in the internment of all
Japanese Americans on the West Coast [Seltzer and Anderson, 2000: 6-7]. In other contexts, this
phenomenon has been termed mission creep.
The objective of this incomplete review of factors associated with extraordinary harm is twofold.
First, to suggest so me possible warning indicators based on how things have gone disastrously
wrong in the past and second, to better inform our understanding of ethical issues in government
statistical work.
4. The Context of Ethical Norms
A range of safeguards must be fostered to defend against both traditional and extraordinary harms
that have at one time or another arisen in both industrialized and developing countries. While
individual safeguards are rarely absolute, they can help to discourage a contemplated misuse by
raising the cost of such a misuse, either in financial, personal, or political terms. If even one of the
safeguards successfully discourages misuse, the extent and duration of harms flowing from the
misuse may be reduced or eliminated and, in the extreme, lives may be saved.
With respect to the extraordinary harm that has sometimes been associated with government
statistical systems Seltzer and Anderson [2001] listed five such safeguards:4
(a) Substantive safeguards
The ultimate safeguard is to not gather or not save data that permit associating an individual with
a potentially vulnerable group. This safeguard, while often perceived as reducing the analytical or
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policy usefulness of the involved data system, have been deliberately employed in several
countries that had histories of misuses associated with major abuses. Whether this reduction in
usefulness is as substantial as is sometimes asserted, the case should be examined on a case-by-
case basis and not just dogmatically accepted.
(b) Methodological and technological safeguards
Even if items and classifications that define one or more target populations are included in a
national data system, a range of methodological and technological procedures can be used to
reduce the potential negative impact of such inclusions. For example, if a data system is based on
a sample, rather than full-count data-gathering, the resulting information is of little help in
providing micro data that can be used to provide operational lists of the member of a target
population. Depending on the size and type of sample, the results may also be of limited
usefulness in providing operationally relevant meso data. Typically, even relatively large scale
national sample surveys based on multi-stage samples of clustered households would be of limited
usefulness in this regard. On the other hand, essentially unclustered systematic samples of census
enumeration records or population registers might well provide operationally useful meso data if
results were made available for small geographic areas.
Another broad technological approach is the deliberate introduction of errors of one sort
or another into the data set. These include systematically swapping responses for individual items
between records or introducing perturbations in specific items. In addition, quantitative items
may be top (or bottom) coded so that unduly large (or small) responses are grouped together to
protect the identity of respondents, while categorical data may be coded in broad response
categories or only large areal units may be identified for similar purposes.
(c) Organizational and operational safeguards
Suitable organizational and operational arrangements have also been used to help protect against
the misuse of population data systems, although to date these arrangements have not been
systematically described. For example, decisions in several U.S. federal statistical agencies related
to the release of data that may pose confidentiality issues are made by a committee that is
independent of both the concerned substantive and processing divisions. In the Netherlands, the
population registration system is deliberately kept as decentralized as possible, and in several
countries machine readable census data files are stripped of most or all individual personal or
exact address identifiers. More complex procedures have been used in some sample surveys
collecting sensitive data. In one case three files were established: an anonymous data file, an
identifier file, and a bridge file that provided the link between the other two files, with the
bridge file kept in a foreign country immune from domestic court orders. As with other
safeguards, the degree of protection afforded by such operational and organizational
arrangements is rarely absolute, particularly with respect to threats posed by misuse of meso data.
Nevertheless, the use of such safeguards, jointly with other approaches, can make misuse more
difficult and thus deserves more careful attention.
(d) Legal safeguards
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A standard feature of any modern national statistical system is legal provisions designed to
protect the confidentiality of many kinds of information reported to statistical agencies. The
content, status, and effectiveness of these provisions vary greatly by agency across the U.S.
federal statistical system. For example, the Census Bureau, the National Center for Health
Stat istics, and the National Center for Education Statistics, each have comparatively strong
statutory protection for the confidentiality of information they collect.
Nevertheless, it is important to be aware that such strong legal safeguards can apparently be
waived by future legislative acts. For example, a recent memorandum from the Office of Legal
Counsel of the U.S. Department of Justice, while upholding the confidentiality provisions of the
law with respect to the Census Bureau (U.S. Code Title 13), provided explicit guidance on how
to draft new statutes that would repeal federal statutes prohibiting or restricting disclosure and to
establish an interpretative background for future federal statutes that would favor disclosure
[Moss, 1999: 5]. Although this memorandum was written specifically with respect to Title 13,
the language used by the Office of Legal Counsel was so general, that it would seem to cover any
federal statutory protections of confidentiality. Moreover, in times of war or national crisis, legal
protections are often weakened. For example, in the United States, the War Powers acts enacted
early in both WW I and WW II, specifically waived the confidentiality provisions of Title 13.
(e) Ethical safeguards
Simply put, ethical safeguards are those based on moral norms. Such safeguards direct us to look
beyond justifications based solely on the scientific value, legality, or importance of the
applications involved.
At least two former directors of the US Census Bureau, Barbara Bryant [1995: 32-33] and Ken
Prewitt [2000], commented on what Prewitt [2000] has termed the proactive assistance
provided by senior Bureau staff in the internment of Japanese Americans after the US entry into
World War II. Both noted that what may be permissible under the letter of the law, may violate
the spirit of the law. For me, one role of ethical norms is to help to fill that gap between the spirit
and the letter of the law.
Until recently, ethical guidelines in statistics, those of the ASA and others, had focused almost
exclusively on traditional harms. Moreover, while the ASA guidelines always acknowledged the
Association s three broad spheres of activity: academia, government and industry, former versions
of the ASA guidelines did not give particular attention to the concerns of government statisticians.
This is probably because the original impetus for work on ethical guidelines in statistics in the
United States came from the set of ethical principles drawn up by W. Edward Deming to guide his
private practice in statistical consulting [Gardenier, 1996]. The newly revised ASA guidelines
largely remedy this imbalance. In addition, since they were completed after the results of some of
the recent research in extraordinary harm became available, they were able to include language
that explicitly take such harm into account. The UN Fundamental Principles, which is addressed
solely at official statistics, referring to the confidential nature of data on individuals obtained for
statistical purposes, uses language that is incompatible with extraordinary harm.
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5. Functional Roles of Ethical Codes or Guidelines
What sorts of functional roles do ethical norms serve? Ethical guidelines or standards developed
for individual professions have been observed to serve three different kinds of functions. Here I
will build on some of the distinctions developed by Kultgen [1988: chapter 10].
First, a statement of ethical principles may provide an ethical cover for those engaged in the
profession. Externally, that means that they are designed to assure users of the concerned
professional services and the general public that practitioners are ethical, that is, follow good
practices. Internally, this helps practitioners develop a strong sense of self-worth. Ultimately,
ethical statements then become an essential feature in transforming an occupation into a
profession. While they may be of some value, such norms rarely go beyond general platitudes and
usually avoid matters of controversy. Thus, ethical norms primarily conceived in this light
normally fail to address the real ethical challenges facing the profession.
Second, an ethical statement can provide a set of agreed-on rules for good professional behavior.
In other words, if practitioners just follow the rules in the ethical standards adopted in a given
profession they can be assured that their actions are ethical. There are several dangers associated
with reducing ethics to a simple set of rules. Such reductionism can lead to behavior aimed at
adherence to the letter of the rule rather than the ethical principle or principles that underlie it.
This in turn may lead to distortions of behavior so as to be able to approach ever so closely the
borderline between what is seen as ethical and unet hical and thereby get the job done while
avoiding the violation of an ethical cannon. The notion of ethics as a set of rules also ignores the
fact that in many situations we must deal with several ethical principles, which may point in quite
different directions.
Finally, an ethics standard or guideline can be seen as an instrument for introducing a moral
dimension in assessing the rightness or wrongness of our actions as statisticians. Viewed in this
light, a statement of professional ethics is not a simple rule book but rather a device for promoting
awareness of relevant ethical issues. From this perspective, guidelines in statistics have been seen
as playing an important role in the education and training of statisticians [Jowell, 1981; Gardenier,
1996]. Indeed, Roger Jowell, chair of the committee that developed the ISI declaration
[International Statistical Institute, 1986], argued that the educational role of a statement on ethics
should be viewed as its paramount function, and that one of the reasons for adopting or revising a
statement or code of ethical principles is the opportunity it provides for education and discussion
[Jowell, 1981].
Still working within this overall perspective, John Gardenier, chair of the American Statistical
Association committee that developed the most recent ASA guidelines [American Statistical
Association, 1999], views the main use of these guidelines as a reference document for anyone
working with, publishing, or consuming purportedly professional statistical work [2001].
Gardenier has also pointed out the value of the guidelines in interviewing prospective candidates
Someone who can discuss the guidelines intelligently and supports them is likely to
be a competent and responsible statistical professional. Someone who cannot
discuss the guidelines intelligently or who casually dismisses them as irrelevant is
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less likely to be a competent and responsible statistical professional. This is not an
infallible "litmus test;" it should be only a part of a well-reasoned evaluation by
those engaging statistical services.
In practice, most statements of professional ethics fit into more than one of these functional
categories. All statements are designed to provide a degree of ethical cover. Certainly, most
professions and those engaged in them, recognize some basic practices of scholarship almost at
the level of very simple rules. For example, most ethical norms contain clear injunctions against
plagiarism and about the requirement to always cite sources. However, even these simple rules
may quickly become complicated when we consider issues of writing for non-technical audiences
or in speaking to the media, where traditional scholarly footnotes are unwelcome.
Anot her way of looking at the issue of the funct ional role of ethical guidelines or standards is
whether or not any disciplinary measures are linked to violations of the stated norms
[AAAS/USORI, 2000; DuMez, 2000; Gorlin, 2000]. A related question is how, if at all, are
allegations of ethical misconduct to be investigated. In general, ethical statements that are
connected with professions that have formal state licencing (for, example, lawyers and medical
practitioners) are those that have the most well developed mechanisms for investigating specific
alleged ethical violations and provide for the widest range of sanctions for those found to have
violated the standards. By contrast, most scientific and professional organizations in the social
sciences either bar the investigation of specific allegations of ethical misconduct or have minimal
investigative procedures. Similarly, among social science professional societies sanctions are
usually either non-existent or at most involve cancellation of the offender s membership.
Adjudicating individual cases requires the availability of both experienced personnel as needed and
substantial financial resources for insurance and lawyers to deal with possible litigation by those
unhappy with the outcome of the adjudication process. The ethics committees of most
professional and scientific societies in the social sciences, the bodies logically responsible for
investigating and adjudicating complaints of ethical misconduct, consist of volunteers who are
otherwise occupied with full-time jobs, and the societies themselves have limited financial
resources to deal with the risk of ethics-related litigation. (On the other hand, when state
licencing is involved, licence fees or other public funds are usually available to cover the costs of
the required investigations and their legal defense.) Consistent with this social science
approach, the purpose of the ASA ethical guidelines is to encourage ethical and effective
statistical work in morally conducive working environments and to assist students in learning to
perform statistical work responsibly [ASA, 1999: 1]. Similarly, the ASA Committee on
Professional Ethics does not have the authority to act on, rule on, or arbitrate ethical matters
[ASA, 2001a].5
6. The ASA Guidelines and Government Statistics
The most recent version of the ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice was adopted by the
ASA Board of Directors in August 1999. As previously indicated, it draws on earlier versions of
the ASA guidelines, the International Statistical Institute's 1985 Declaration on Professional
Ethics [ISI, 1985], and the Royal Statistical Society s Code of Ethics [1993] and it reflects some
recent research findings on extraordinary harm, referred to earlier.
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The ASA Guidelines were written for a very broad audience, including persons working in
academia, industry, and government. Several of its provisions have limited relevance for
government statisticians and those who use government statistics or employ or collaborate with
government statisticians. On the other hand, the text does address a number of specific issues that
are particularly relevant to government statistical work. Still other provisions are relevant
generally to all statistical work, regardless of the field of application.
Some of the provisions of particular relevance for the activities of government statistics and
related ethical concerns include two paragraphs in the preamble dealing with statistics and
society. The first emphasizes the value of statistics:
Effective functioning of the economy depends on the availability of reliable, timely,
and properly interpreted economic data. . . Agricultural productivity benefits
greatly from statistically sound applications to research and output reporting.
Governmental policy decisions regarding public health, criminal justice, social
equity, education, the environment, the siting of critical facilities, and other matters
depend in part on sound statistics. [ASA, 1999:3]
The second reflects the issue of harm, including extraordinary harm :
Statistical tools and methods, like many other technologies, can be employed either
for social good or for evil. The professionalism encouraged by these guidelines is
predicated on their use in socially responsible pursuits by morally responsible
societies, governments, and employers. Where the end purpose of a statistical
application is itself morally reprehensible, statistical professionalism ceases to have
ethical worth. [1999: 4]
Of course, this paragraph is relevant to most fields of statistical application.
The section of the preamble dealing with shared values also has two provisions of special
relevance to government statistical programs
5. Adherence to all applicable laws and regulations, as well as applicable
international covenants, while also seeking t o change any of those that are ethically
inappropriate.
6. Preservation of data archives in a manner consistent with responsible protection
of the safety and confidentiality of any human beings and organizations involved.
[1999:4]
In the context of extraordinary harm, point 5 reminds us of responsibilities flowing from
international covenants against genocide and crimes against humanity, while point 6 reminds us of
our continuing responsibilities to the responding public.
Within the main body of the ASA guidelines, Section D, Responsibilities to Research Subjects
(including census or survey respondents and persons and organizations supplying data from
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administrative records, as well as subjects of physically or psychologically invasive research) is
perhaps of most concern to government statisticians, at least with respect to extraordinary harm,
continued public cooperation, and the reputation of the statistical agency.
Among the eight provisions of this section of the guidelines, three seem to be particularly relevant
for regular government statistical programs
1. Know about and adhere to appropriate rules for the protection of human
subjects, including particularly vulnerable or other special populations who may be
subject to special risks or who may not be fully able to protect their own interests.
Assure adequate planning to support the practical value of the research, the
validity of expected results, the ability to provide the protection promised, and
consideration of all other ethical issues involved. Some pertinent guidance is
provided . . . at the end of this document for U.S. law, the U.N. Statistical
Commission, and the International Statistical Institute. Laws of other countries and
their subdivisions and ethical principles of other professional organizations may
provide other guidance.
4. Protect the privacy and confidentiality of research subjects and data concerning
them, whether obtained directly from the subjects, from other persons, or from
administrative records. Anticipate secondary and indirect uses of the data when
obtaining approvals from research subjects; obtain approvals appropriate for peer
review and for independent replication of analyses.
5. Be aware of legal limitations on privacy and confidentiality assurances. Do not,
for example, imply protection of privacy and confidentiality from legal processes of
discovery unless explicitly authorized to do so. [1999: 7-8]
By presenting these excerpts from the ASA guidelines here I hope to encourage all those
associated with government statistical programs to read the full guidelines. Many of the general
provisions, applicable to all fields have not been reproduced here. In addition, the selection of
paragraphs presented here was skewed toward those seen as especially relevant to large-scale
population based statistical activities. Given the diversity of government statistical activities,
many provisions of critical relevance to other kinds of governmental activities have been omitted.
The solution to all these omissions is to read the full document. It is not long and is available at <
http://www.amstat.org/profession/ethicalstatistics.html >.
7. Coping with Ethical Threats in Government Statistical Work
(a) Coping strategies
A number of options are available in dealing with what one perceives as an ethical problem in
government statistical work. The basic elements of an appropriate response are: generally
speaking up about the perceived problem, establishing a written record, and explicitly informing
one s supervisor about these concerns. In deciding on what to do at any stage it is important that
any response be proportional to the threat or harm associated with the ethical problem.
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To the extent one can do so without violating confidentiality or security constraints under which
one works, concerns should be shared verbally with colleagues, supervisors, and mentors in the
unit or agency. If, after talking with others about the perceived issue, these concerns remain, they
should be put in writing so that a record of the problem or potential problem is established. In
addition, these concerns should be brought to the attention of one s supervisor, explicitly and in
writing. In writing up these concerns, it may be useful to indicate how the proposed action or
existing practice violates existing norms by citing, for example, relevant provisions of the ASA
guidelines or the Committee on National Statistics Principles and Practices for Federal
Statistical Agency [National Research Council, 2001].
If one is a supervisor, understand that the ASA guidelines state
within organizations . . . statistical practitioners with greater prestige, power, or
status have a responsibility to protect the professional freedom and responsibility
of more subordinate statistical practitioners to comply with these guidelines.
[ASA, 1999: 10]
All these responses are perfectly consistent with behavior as a responsible, loyal, and law abiding
civil servant. Moreover, such a strategy can be successful.
I will cite one example. In early 1942 Forrest E. Linder was a young statistician working in the
Vital Statistics division of the U.S. Census Bureau. (He went on to have a distinguished career in
the federal statistical system, including his role as the founder-director of the National Center for
Health Statistics and founder of the Pop Labs project at the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill.) As a direct follow-up to the Census Bureau s co-operation in the internment of
Japanese Americans then living on the West Coast, Linder was sent on a short mission to San
Francisco to assist the U.S. Army s Western Defense Command in drawing up plans for a national
population registration system for military and statistical purposes [Seltzer and Anderson, 2000:
28-32]. At the end of his mission Linder submitted a 35 page report that discussed the uses of
such a system, described some of the technical and administrative difficulties involved, and
provided detailed technical guidance about the creation of such a system. Yet, even in the post-
Pearl Harbor hysteria of the times, he also included the following warning in the introduction to
his report
Emphasis has already been given to the technical and administrative difficulties of
general population registration for identity purposes. Mention should be made,
also, of the political and psychological dangers. Traditional American thinking
regarding freedom of action and thought might consider a mandatory identification
register as an infringement of that liberty and the beginning of an American
gestapo. The political implications or effects of a compulsory identity
registration might be considerable, unless a substantial part of the public clearly
saw the necessity for it. Also the possibilities of blacklist inherent in an
identification system are certain to arouse the opposition of labor groups. [Linder,
1942: 5]
Ultimately, after a long bureaucratic battle the proposal was rejected in 1943 despite the very
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strong support of a number of military and civilian departments and some elements of the
statistical community. While a number of technical and administrative reasons were given for its
rejection, the privacy and human rights issues raised by Linder were taken up, one way or
another, by the other major participants at each stage of the debate, including Linder s supervisor
at the Census Bureau, Halbert Dunn, and the Bureau of Budget report that marked its formal end
[Seltzer and Anderson, 2000: 32-33].
Beyond these basic responses, more serious options for action are possible. The next step beyond
those just outlined is to go public with one s concerns. The act of going public with an
ethical concern may raise legal and personal concerns. It also may involve an ethical choice of
obligations to one s own agency versus other obligations. The ethical issues involved are
addressed in the ASA guidelines in the following terms
In cases of conflict, statistical practitioners and those employing them are
encouraged to resolve issues of ethical practice privately. If private resolution is
not possible, recognize that statistical practitioners have an ethical obligation to
expose incompetent or corrupt practice before it can cause avoidable harm to
research subjects or society at large. [ASA, 1999: 10]
Here again it is important to remember the principle of proportionality of response to threat or
harm. Minor harms do not usually justify major action. Moreover, it is important that we not
escalate differences over scientific methods to a controversy over ethics. Too often one hears
charges along the lines of the use of technique x is totally unethical. For example, technical
debates about methods of modeling, price adjustment, or the appropriateness of a Bayesian or
traditionalist approach sometimes include charges that unethical behavior is involved. While
ethical issues may sometimes be involved, the issue is often largely technical. As the ASA
guidelines observe
recognize that differences of opinion and honest error do not constitute
misconduct; they warrant discussion but not accusation. Questionable scientific
practices may or may not constitute misconduct, depending on their nature and the
definition of misconduct used. [ASA, 1999: 9]
The lesson here is the simple one that one has to be alert to ethical problems but should not cry
wolf every time one disagrees with what is happening.
Going public may take several forms: verbal or written statements, resignation, or non-violent
civil disobedience. All of these avenues have been used by those working in the U.S. federal
statistical system in the past. Certainly with regard to verbal or written expressions of concern, a
wide range of options are available, many of which present no legal difficulties. Again, consistent
with the confidentiality or security constraints under which one works, it may be possible to share
concerns informally with colleagues and mentors in other parts of the government and in the user
community as well as with former teachers or individual members of the ASA known to be
experienced with ethical issues. The goal of such sharing is twofold: first, to test the weight of
one s concerns by the views of others and second, to develop a plan to deal with the concern if,
after consulting with others, the concern remains. More formal avenues may also be available
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through an agency ombudsman, where one exists, or through the mechanism of Congressional
oversight.
Where these options were unavailable or did not seem to work, perceived threats have also been
brought to the attention of the press, expressed in statements or letters or referred to in papers
presented at conferences. While these approaches are frequently used to go public about a wide
range of policy concerns throughout government, many of which have no relationship to either
ethics or statistics, they can in some circumstances place a civil servant at risk. For example,
problems may arise when an agency requires clearance of all written communications by staff, the
agency then refuses to provide such clearance, and the staff member wants to proceed anyway.
Accordingly, in exploring these options, it may be wise to seek advice from experienced
colleagues or even legal advice.
There can, however, come a time that a government statistician or statistical administrator is
forced to choose between, on the one hand, holding to the basic values of the profession as set
out in the ASA Guidelines, the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics [United Nations
Economic and Social Council, 1994], and other relevant ethical statements (for example,
International Statistical Institute [1986]) or, on the other hand, obeying contrary executive,
legislative, or judicial instruction. The issue is long-standing, and is analogous to that raised by
Sophocles in Antigone or the teachings of Jesus about conflicts between duty to the central
authority of the state and other duties.6
Certainly, in a democracy, a government statistician, like any other civil servant or even any
citizen, should not lightly set aside or ignore the democratic decision-making process on the
grounds that it produces a technically weak or incorrect result. However, even in democracies,
the clash of fundamental values with legally constituted authority occurs. In the United States,
such clashes from time to time have led senior staff in the federal statistical system to resign in
protest rather than participate in what they considered to be misconduct. For example, in the
middle of the Depression in 1930, Charles S. Pearson, the statistician in charge of compiling
unemployment data in the 1930 Population Census, resigned in protest when instructed to exclude
laid-off workers from the figure on total unemployed [Duncan and Shelton, 1974: 24]. In
1987, Barbara Bailar, then an Associate Director of the Census Bureau and Kirk Wolter, then
Chief of the Bureau s Statistical Research Division, resigned after the Commerce Department
refused to allow the Bureau to proceed with its plans for dealing with underenumeration in the
1990 Population Census. (In the words of Bailar, I was prevented from responsibly performing
my duties by a 1987 order from the Commerce Department. ) [Anderson, 1988: 165; Choldin,
1994: 152]
It may be noted that these resignations were over issues that fall under the general rubric of
traditional harms. It may also be noted that Pearson s resignation appears to have had a direct
impact on statistical policy while the 1987 resignations, at least in the short run, did not.
Although non-violent civil disobedience has been less widely used, I am aware of at least two
cases where the approach, or something akin to it, was used or threatened. In the 1920s Ethelbert
Stewart, then Commissioner of Labor Statistics, refused, despite the threat of a subpoena, to
provide a Congressional Committee with company-specific data that had been obtained under a
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pledge of confidentiality [Duncan and Shelton, 1978: 168] and in 1980 Vincent Barabba, then the
Census Bureau Director, refused to comply with a court order to provide address registers
because they contained confidential materials [Mitroff et al., 1983: 15]. In both instances, these
officials prevailed.
Whether they would have done so in other circumstances or if they had been more junior in the
governmental hierarchy is not clear. They do provide an example, both in terms of those with
greater prestige, power, or status taking a responsibility to protect the professional freedom and
responsibility of more subordinate statistical practitioners to comply with these guidelines and
their willingness to act before research subjects or society at large were subjected to avoidable
harm [ASA, 1999: 10].
(b) Prevention strategies
Even as one tries to address specific current ethical threats or potential threats, it is important to
work systematically on prevention strategies. A robust prevention strategy is perhaps the best
means of reducing the likelihood of serious ethical problems and of ensuring that any ethical
threats that do arise are dealt with in a calm and expeditious manner.
As a first step in developing appropriate prevention strategies, I urge an approach that
encompasses the following elements:
(1) Study and documentation of previous problems.
(2) Develop and disseminate case studies that illustrate ways of addressing ethical issues
based on real or hypothetical examples.
(3) Develop models of research risk that better correspond to the real risks associated with
noninvasive social research.7
(4) Include education and training on ethics in university and agency training programs.8
(5) Develop agency-specific plans for fostering discussions of agency ethical issues and
agency-specific mechanisms for responding to ethical concerns.
(6) Develop statements on ethics by agency or by ASA section that might supplement the
ASA guidelines.
(7) Further develop and apply the other types of safeguards summarized earlier. These
included substantive, methodological and technological, organizational and operational,
and legal safeguards.
Work in some of these areas is already going forward. For example, the ASA Committee on
Professional Ethics has already put a small number of case studies and dialogues on ethical issues
on its website. More are to be added over time. Unfortunately, issues of particular relevance to
many government statisticians are not yet well represented.
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More positively, several of the larger federal statistical agencies have given more attention to
methodological, technological, organizational, and operational safeguards in recent years. These
activities have not only benefitted these agencies themselves but have contributed to two
documents designed to provide practical help to all agencies in minimizing disclosure risks: (1) a
Checklist on Disclosure Potential of Proposed Data Releases [FCSM, 1999] and (2) Record
Linkage and Privacy: Issues in Creating New Federal Research and Statistical Information
[USGAO, 2001] as well as an earlier study, Private Lives and Public Policies: Confidentiality
and Access of Government Statistics [Duncan et al, 1993], carried out under the auspices of the
Committee on National Statistics. The Committee on National Statistics has also recommended
that federal statistical agencies address ethical issues directly. For example, the most recent
edition of its Principles and Practices for Federal Statistical Agency states that an agency
should . . . seek opportunities to reinforce the commitment of its staff to ethical standards of
practice [National Research Council, 2001:11], providing clear encouragement for ethics training
and related work in line with points 4 and 5 above.
As important as these efforts are, much more remains to be done. Indeed such work is never
completed since each new generation of statisticians will face new issues in new contexts. The
primary goal of further work on ethics is not more rules. Rather it aims at fostering more
discussions of ethical issues so that we are all more conscious that there can be an ethical
dimension to what one does as a government statistician. At the same time, work on further
strengthening other types of safeguards against both traditional and extraordinary harm needs to
be continued.
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Endnotes
1. The specific threats or modes identified were: (1) mission of the statistical service, (2) financial
resources and controls, (3) staff, (4) statistical fields or series targeted for expansion or
suppression, (5) definitions, concepts, and methodology, (6) terms and nomenclature, (7) altering
specific numbers, (8) the extent and timing of the release of data, (9) threats to data
confidentiality, (10) use of an agency for political analysis or other political work, and (11) active
campaign to discredit the statistical service outputs, methods, or staff. This framework and its
individual components are described in Seltzer [1994: 2-13].
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2. Underlying this discussion of ethical rights and wrongs in statistics are two quite different
approaches to thinking about ethical issues generally. The first approach, formally termed
deontology [Slote, 1995:721],
treats moral obligations [largely] independent of the effects of our actions . . . . For
deontologists, the end does not always justify the means, and certain kinds of
actions . . . are wrong for reasons having little to do with good or desirable
consequences.
By contrast, consequentialism, or more specifically utilitarianism, treats [1995: 722]
moral right and wrong . . . [as] totally . . . concerned with producing desirable
results. The end, indeed, does justify the means, according to utilitarianism . . . .
The debate between deontology and consequentialism has remained fundamentally
important in philosophical ethics.
Implicit in some of the arguments advanced in this paper is a deontological perspective that
exposing potentially vulnerable population subgroups to undue risks by means of government
statistical operations is morally wrong, even if little or no actual harm results. The author s
individual views on this specific issue, however, are independent of the general thesis of the paper
that a heightened awareness of ethical issues will be of benefit to the country and the federal
statistical system generally.
3. For a more extended discussion of the issue of motivation, see Seltzer and Anderson [2001].
4. For a more extensive discussion of these safeguards, see Seltzer and Anderson [2001]. For a
discussion of ways of countering threats to the integrity of a national statistical system (that is,
traditional harms in the language of the present paper), see Seltzer [1994: 13-20]. The specific
factors identified and discussed there were: (1) long tradition of statistical integrity, (2) strong
links between statistical user and producer community, (3) uncensored and active journalism, (4)
pre-announced schedule of release dates, (5) active professional statistical society, (6) sound civil
service system, (7) laws relating to the independent status of statistical information and
operations, (8) location of the statistical service within the governmental service, (9) stature and
contractual status of the head of the statistical service, and (10) international support.
Unfortunately, this list neglected to explicitly include the role that an awareness of ethical issues,
based on agreed norms, can play in protecting against traditional harm and promoting statistical
integrity.
5. With regards to sanctions, the ASA by-laws [ASA, 2001b] provide that
If a member acts in a manner detrimental to the Association, the Board of
Directors shall give notice to the member describing such charges. The member
shall then have due opportunity to respond and to have a hearing by a committee
appointed by the Board of Directors. After reviewing the committee's report on
the hearing, the Board of Directors may terminate membership by a vote of at least
two-thirds of its members.
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6. See Seltzer [1994: 23 and 25-26], for a presentation of these issues in an international context.
7. The model of research harm that underlies all discussions of research risk and related
procedural safeguards, over the past 60 years at least, has been essentially a medical model. This
model is based on the assumption that the main threat of research is to the physical or
psychological well being of the individual research subject occasioned by the invasive acts of the
researcher on the body or mind of the subject [Vanderpool, 1996]. By contrast, in most social
research, invasive acts of the researcher on the body or mind of the research subject are rare.
The threats here, if any, usually arise from the information obtained about the research subjects
and the risks are borne not just by the individual research subject but also by other members of the
pot entially vulnerable population subgroups t o which the research subject belongs. The use of a
risk model that attributes all harm to invasive acts and none to information and which focuses only
on individual risk and does not examine group risk can potentially lead to serious distortions of
the ethical review process. ( For clarity, I emphasize that group risk exists even when all indirect
harm arising from data-based policy decisions, whether just or unjust, is excluded from the risk
benefit analysis. Such an exclusion leaves in place the group risk arising from the possibility of
adverse operational activities directed against the group based on meso data. Several instances of
such harm are listed in Table 1 and discussed in Seltzer and Anderson [2001].) Actually, some
recent developments in genetic research are also beginning to suggest the need to take account
information threats and group risk in biomedical ethics [Murphy and Lapp , 1994].
8. Clark (2001) recently reported that the Census Bureau identified 22 work force competencies
needed for mathematical statisticians, indicating that this information provided useful guidance in
developing training that might be provided to Bureau staff. Even though 15 of these
competencies were non-technical in nature, ethics was not one of the areas identified.
Fortunately, for those employees who had participated in the Joint Program on Survey Methods,
some exposure to the discussion of ethical issues in the context of the federal statistical system is
provided.
26