Monday, October 15, 2012

Excess ecclesiastical infrastructure

In 1960, the Episcopal Church had more than 3.4 million members. By
2012, that number had shrunk to 2.1 million, a decrease of 38%. Yet the
Episcopal Church has slightly increased the number of its dioceses. This move
is counterintuitive.

To simplify the math, presume that the Episcopal Church has had a
constant number of dioceses, 100 in 1960 and 2012. In 1960, each diocese would
have had approximately 34,000 members (in fact, dioceses vary widely in number
of members). Maintaining that average per diocese would translate into 38 fewer
dioceses in 2012

Dioceses with fewer members have the potential advantages of
experiencing a greater sense of community and increased interaction with their
bishop.

However, the reality is that fewer members do not mean proportionally
fewer congregations. Thus, the decrease in membership represents a double
fiscal burden: little decrease in building maintenance and operating costs and
little, if any, decrease (indeed more likely an increase because of rising
healthcare insurance costs) in the diocesan operating budgets.

In other words, 38% fewer members fund an institutional structure that
once accommodated 3.4 million members instead of today’s 2.1 million members. Of
course, agreeing with the macro analysis is easy. The real obstacle to
institutional realignment – both realignment driven by declining numbers and by
changing culture – is that few people want to close their parish or eliminate
their diocese. The real commitment of Episcopalians is to an institution rather
than to mission.

Concurrently, the number of Americans who report no religious
affiliation has climbed to 20% of the population. Some of these people believe
in God, even pray daily. Many openly identify as an atheist or agnostic. This
trend means that the decline in Episcopalians is not about to reverse. The
Episcopal Church does not need to preserve its excess capacity (underutilized
infrastructure) for a surge in new members that lies just over the horizon. Decades
of declining numbers provides ample evidence that the path to renewal and
growth does not lie along the trajectory of preserving ecclesiastical infrastructure,
a conclusion that Venice (and, in varying degrees, much of Europe) with its
plethora of expensive, ornate church buildings and dearth of worshipers
reinforces.