UFC 118 ‘Edgar vs. Penn 2’ Analysis: The Main Card

First, the lightweight title picture is mapped out for the
remainder of the year. Second, a mixed martial artist will beat a
one-dimensional fighter 100 times out of 100 if he sticks to the
right game plan. And third, B.J. Penn,
considered one of the sport’s pound-for-pound greats, may be past
his prime.

What happened: Diaz has successfully
used two tune-up fights at welterweight to break out of his slump
in his natural weight class at 155 pounds. His fight against Davis
resembled the 2009 encounter between his older brother, Nick Diaz, and
Scott
Smith. For three rounds, he used his reach advantage to beat up
Davis on the feet, opening a nasty gash near his right eyebrow with
his unorthodox striking techniques. After failing to put the fight
on the mat in the first two rounds, Diaz finally succeeded in the
third. With 1:45 left to go in the bout, he wrestled Davis to the
ground and immediately passed to side control. Davis regained half
guard, only to be choked unconscious with the guillotine.

Forecast for Diaz: In the post-fight
interview, Diaz expressed his interest in moving back to the
lightweight division to take on “[Gray] Maynard and all those who
think they’re hotshots.” While “The Bully” has other matters on his
hands in the near future, Diaz could take on fellow UFC 118 winner
Joe
Lauzon or try to avenge one of his other UFC losses to Clay Guida or
Joe
Stevenson at 155 pounds.

Forecast for Davis: If the UFC decides
to keep him -- he has lost three of his past four fights -- it will
only be to serve as a potential foil for another one of its young
stars, perhaps Anthony
Johnson or John
Howard.

What happened: A fight that was
characterized by tactics lived off suspense and drama, as Maynard
did what needed to be done to secure his long overdue title shot.
“The Bully” respected Florian’s striking ability, which is why he
went back to his bread-and-butter wrestling game for the first time
in quite a while. Maynard took down Florian in the second round and
worked a couple of elbow strikes from side control, opening a cut
on the two-time title contender. Maynard had more in the tank for
round three, as he delivered an explosive shot that Florian could
no longer defend. He rode out the round from top position to clinch
his crack at lightweight gold.

Forecast for Maynard: A rematch with
lightweight champion Frankie
Edgar -- whom he defeated 2008 as a bigger, stronger wrestler
-- could take place as early as December, when it could serve as
co-headliner for the forthcoming welterweight title match between
Georges
St. Pierre and Josh
Koscheck. It might also become the main event at the first UFC
pay-per-view event in 2011.

Forecast for Florian: With Diego
Sanchez back at 170 pounds, the obvious rematch candidate
remains out of the picture. “KenFlo” finds himself in a tough spot
at 155 pounds, as the UFC might hesitate to match him with one of
its up-and-coming title contenders for fear of him defeating them.
On the other hand, fighters like George
Sotiropoulos, Kurt
Pellegrino and Rafael dos
Anjos could lend significant credibility to their championship
aspirations with a win over Florian.

What happened: For
three rounds, Maia did everything but finish Miranda. From the
opening bell, the ground fighting wizard displayed a hefty
advantage on the mat over Miranda, a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu
black belt, as he thoroughly outwrestled, outgrappled and
outmaneuvered the Matt Hume
protégé. The highlight of this technical bout was Maia’s improved
ground-and-pound attack, which he used as a red herring to advance
position. Maia had full mount and back mount several times and
attempted a number of armbars but could not put away Miranda. He
came closest to finishing the fight in the second round, when he
had Miranda mounted but seemingly could not decide where to turn
for the submission. He contemplated an inverted triangle choke but
instead went for another armbar.

Forecast for Maia: The 32-year-old
Brazilian remains near the top of the UFC’s middleweight division.
His world-class grappling chops and ever improving wrestling and
standup skills make him a difficult match for anybody at 185 pounds
not named Anderson
Silva. A rematch with Chael Sonnen
would have been interesting had the promotion not decided on an
immediate return fight between Sonnen and Silva. Perhaps Maia could
get another crack at Nate
Marquardt after he faces Rousimar
Palhares next month. Finally, there may be attempts to put the
Maia-Alan
Belcher fight together one more time after “The Talent”
recovers from eye surgery.

Forecast for Miranda: The AMC
Pankration fighter deserves another trip to the Octagon after his
gutsy performance against Maia on short notice. Possible future
opponents for him include Kendall
Grove, Mark Munoz
and Kyle
Noke.

What happened: Couture, a master
strategist, took down Toney right of the bat, mounted the
professional boxer, grounded-and-pounded him and pushed him against
the cage, unleashing an arm-triangle choke for the submission 3:19
into the first round.

Forecast for Couture: With a quick and
easy victory, “The Natural” could return to fight one more time
this year. A few names, most notably Mirko “Cro
Cop” Filipovic and Lyoto
Machida, keep being thrown around in connection with Couture.
And the chance of a fourth meeting with fellow UFC hall of famer
Chuck
Liddell always remains a possibility.

Forecast for Toney: His run in the
Octagon looks to have come to an end after just one utterly
forgettable appearance.

What happened: When Edgar fought Penn
in April, he executed in a similar fashion, outwrestling and
outworking the former lightweight kingpin. When he did it this
time, one had the impression he did so with a lot more belief in
his skills. For 25 minutes, Edgar made “The Prodigy” react to his
offensive attack, which included takedowns, good jabs, leg kicks,
vastly improved jiu-jitsu and even aggressive ground-and-pound in
the championship rounds. Penn got more offense going than he did in
the first fight but failed to trouble Edgar, even after he took
down the champion in the fourth round and took his back in the
fifth. The real disappointment in this rematch was Penn’s corner,
which offered little in the way of advice to the challenger.

Forecast for Edgar: A weight
disadvantage did not matter against Penn. It will be interesting to
see if the same holds true in his rematch with Maynard, a slower
but vastly bigger and more powerful version of Edgar.

Forecast for Penn: Having suffered
back-to-back losses for the second time in his career, Penn has all
options on the table. He could return to the welterweight division,
where a rubber match with Matt Hughes
might await, or he could simply retire, realizing he can no longer
lay claim to the be-all-end-all tag at 155 pounds.

Contact Tim at www.facebook.com/Rossonero1 or follow him on
twitter @Rossonero1.