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Want proof that the bull market that began in March 2009 is getting long in the tooth?

The financial press these days is filled with it, using data ranging from intensifying IPO activity to the climb in the value of the Wilshire 5000 relative to the economy to make the point.

For example, a piece in today's Wall Street Journal cites the explosion in both initial public offerings and secondary stock offerings as proof that the smart-money is taking its money now before the market corrects or falls hard.

Wall Street Journal

"So far this year, U.S. companies have put out $51 billion in first-time stock issues, known as initial public offerings or IPOs, based on data from Dealogic," writes the Journal's veteran stock-market writer E.S. Browning. "That is the most since $63 billion in the same period of 2000, the year bubbles in tech stocks and IPOs both popped.

"Follow-on offerings by already public companies have been even larger, surpassing $155 billion this year," Browning adds. " That is the most for the first 10-plus months of any year in Dealogic's records, which start in 1995."

As Browning writes, "issuers are grabbing current terms before markets fade. That makes experienced investors ask themselves a classic question: If the smart money is selling, should we be buying?"

Street Authority

Sterman points out that the aggregate value of the largest 5,000 U.S. companies (as measured by the Wilshire 5000) is trading roughly at a 10% premium to the gross national product. When that value of the Wilshire 500 trades at a 20% to 30% discount to the GNP, Buffett sees value in the broader market.

"The Wilshire 5000 has risen 68% since the end of 2009," writes Sterman. "Yet the economy has grown just 17%, throwing this key ratio out of whack."

Sterman points out 2007 was the last year that the Wilshire 5000 exceeded the value of the economy, and we all know what happened in the following year.

To be sure, he adds, the Wilshire-to-GNP ratio is stretched, but it could well go even higher for a while, as was the case in 1999. "Yet a clear margin for error has been removed from this market, and there is ample reason to shift your portfolio into a defensive posture," he concludes.

Finally, the words of Eddy Elfenbein, the writer of the influential Crossing Wall Street financial blog, serve as a nice counterpoint to the aforementioned journalism.

Crossing Wall Street

"Do I think that stocks are in a bubble?," Elfenbein asks somewhat rhetorically. "Honestly, I don't know. And more importantly, I don't much care."

Elfenbein writes that "where the entire S&P 500 is headed isn't that important for a disciplined stock picker."

But even for those who would just as soon buy an index and chase alpha, Elfenbein makes a good point. "Even if the market is about plunge, it's very difficult to get the timing just right. Lots of people saw the housing bubble but they were very early. The bubble kept on going."

The value of this market, while a bit lofty, hasn't hit bubble levels by most people's definitions. That doesn't mean that it's not time to heed some of the aforementioned warning signs and take some profits.