Not a trace of Don; What's next?

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUTAS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NOCONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE INSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LASTADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91LMost of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

hello to all i have been away most of the day ... I hear something about south florida am located in the ft lauderdale hollywood beach area less than a mile from the ocean so i am concerned as to where this storm may be heading as i see the models that you guys posted hae been shifting to the left any scenerios....

It's better to understand his condition. Breaks such as this usually have an inciting event such as running out of meds and not getting them refilled (or not being able to get them refilled over the weekend), some personal trauma like illness of a loved one or breaking up with a significant other, sometimes other substances like alcohol, etc. may be involved (we've seen the pictures), or maybe even some type of infection.

The important thing is to ensure he gets the proper help he needs and don't do anything that can escalate his behavior any further. ;)

Unfortunately I used to like the images he posted, now I have had no choice but to banish him because I'm trying to learn Spanish and have to catch a flight down to Miami on Tuesday.

Quoting Levi32:Remember one thing tonight...the models may be shifting a lot right now, but Puerto Rico is far from out of the woods, and they should still be on high alert. I still think the models may shift back east a bit tomorrow once new coordinates come in for the low center which is now consolidating.

Saying that is pointless though....we're not forecasting models. We're forecasting 91L, and PR is still in its sights, as well as Hispaniola.

Levi, that's the best comment on here all night...And truth? 150 miles here, 50 miles there, will all make a difference. We used to say in the EM community that a 5 dy track over your head in an uncertain forecast environment was more a blessing than a curse, cause the hurricane would likely end up 300 miles away 5 days later.

Time will tell, but overall, the system is farther west and south than initially expected. Maybe the models overcompensated or something. Who knows...but the big islands are not that wide and the difference between north over or south will be huge in coming days, but to hard to call now.

Likewise, the difference between through the Bahamas and out to sea, over SE Florida, or a path like Donna in 1960 is too hard to call now too. Bottom line is the difference between a weak Tropical storm hitting land, a major hurricane heading out to sea, or a major hurricane hitting land. I guess we'll all know more about that in 2-3 days.

Quoting cwf1069:I'm being here since 2004 as a lurker, but all this names for me are like my relatives. Anybody remember jphurricane, a guy from palm beach. By the way, as I have a new job, and I don't have to much time to read the blog, is being Kaimanlander around here, cause I haven't seen him, and I like his input so much.

I've been the ultimate lurker. I've been a member since before many of frequent bloggers even started posting here. Up until this year I had an average comment rate of 2 comments per year despite being on the blog nearly every day during hurricane season. Does it ever scare you frequent posters to know there are so many of us silently watching all your posts and ocasional drama?

Quoting Levi32:Remember one thing tonight...the models may be shifting a lot right now, but Puerto Rico is far from out of the woods, and they should still be on high alert. I still think the models may shift back east a bit tomorrow once new coordinates come in for the low center which is now consolidating.

Saying that is pointless though....we're not forecasting models. We're forecasting 91L, and PR is still in its sights, as well as Hispaniola.

On a more serious note, thanks all to the maps and model postings; I don't post often, but read and absorb everything posted. Best wishes to the casters, and may everyone in the path of ANY storms stay safe, and protect their property to the best of their ability.