I am looking for an opportunity to add to my long position and am especially watching for a possible release that the list of reforms that Greece submits will be rejected by the EU member states. This rejection of reforms will trigger selling in the market as investors panic about Grexit again and this selling may give an opportunity to buy again at support. I believe that any rejection of reforms at this stage would be completely normal and will view it at political posturing and game playing on both sides. Greece won’t want to lose face, Tsipras and Co. will talk a good fight, but will do what they’re told for now.

Bullish approach. Support for dip buying could be either 11050 (retest of the breakout) or 11026 (daily S2) and beyond that 10945 (median line of the pitch fork on the daily chart and also the lower part of the original wedge formation that we recently broke from).

Bearish Approach. If the candle from yesterday turns out to be the start of a corrective pattern, then the fundamental trigger would be the Greek obstacles and/or geopolitical tensions, which are possible today. Without this trigger, the Bullish sentiment will likely dominate with consolidation coming a close second.

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Support & Resistance

KEY LEVELS

Difference

Daily R2

11204

-88

Daily R1

11162

-46

Value High

11126

73

Naked VPOC

11121

145

Daily Pivot

11115

38

24hr VWAP

11110

92

Value Low

11087

128

Daily S1

11073

80

34 Hour EMA

11067

58

Daily S2

11026

164

200 Day EMA

9808

13

Dax Daily Chart Analysis

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All time highs again, but we have already climbed around 10-12% this year, the momentum indicators are slightly overbought, we are in the top half of the pitchfork, still near the top of the rising channel and above the 100% fib extension from the Oct/Dec swing. There will soon likely be further consolidation or a pullback/correction. Right now though, strongly Bullish.
Dax Daily Chart Analysis

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

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After plenty of action on Friday, yesterday was a lot more tame. We made fresh highs but the formation is that of a triangle and a breakout is coming again. A break below the trend defining 11070 low opens up 11026 which is the S2. A break above the recent high takes us back into new territory. On the second chart, I would like to add to my position somewhere near the circle.

Dax Intra-day Chart Analysis

Dax 5-minute Chart Analysis

Dax Volume Profile Analysis
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Much smaller profile, normal distribution with no low volume pockets. Price was oscillating around VWAP with mixed buy/sell signals again compressing into a triangle pattern. The entire value area for yesterday was within a 39 point range.

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plenty of stop losses around 11525, so when they are triggered, it could open the door to those prices.

On the m5 chart, we have broken out through the top of the bearish regression channel and this could have provided a decent buying signal. I sent out a couple of signals to my premium members in my Telegram channel on Friday and the trades were based on this chart. Today I am watching for a bullish reaction to the daily pivot, or the top of that bearish channel (in case price comes back to test previous resistance) but perhaps we simply continue to float higher through the day.

I am bullish above 11550. If that is broken significantly, then I am interested in the 11400-11450 zone.

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After a fairly wide ranging day yesterday we are still trapped inside a 200 point range, where we have been for the last 7-8 days. Despite receiving slightly disappointing news from Mario Draghi, the market has not shown too many signs of its intent to reversal from current levels.

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A big swing short setup exists, but there is the MASSIVE positive divergence signal on the hourly chart (RSI). Look at the low of March 10 and March 17 then look at the RSI lows. That positive divergence most often results in a strong rally. So this could actually be seen as a good Bullish setup to take advantage of. Especially if we manage to break above the high of yesterday. My first target would be a move to the 10150-10180 zone and a break above that opens up a move to 10300.

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