Weekend Predictions: Will Guardians Be the Biggest in the Galaxy?

July 31st, 2014

Guardians of the Galaxy will likely become the biggest hit of this August. It might become the biggest hit of any August. The buzz is powerful, as are the reviews, and this could add up to a record-breaking opening. It isn't the only film opening wide, as Get On Up is also coming out this weekend. That film is a biopic of James Brown and it is earning stellar reviews, but will be limited to the counter-programming role. This weekend last year, the box office was led by 2 Guns, which made $27.06 million during the weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy should make more than that during its opening day. It looks like 2014 should finally end the slump it is in.

Guardians of the Galaxy is the latest in the line of Avengers films. So far, every film has earned at least $100 million and the last four have cracked $200 million. If Guardians of the Galaxy were to maintain that streak, it would be a huge hit for this time of year. It has already broken a record for widest August release with an opening theater count of 4,080 screens. Up next is the biggest day / biggest weekend in August. That record is currently held by The Bourne Ultimatum at $25.29 million / $69.28 million. Not everyone thinks the film will break those records, but given the hype and the reviews, it should get there. Look for $76 million during the weekend, including close to $30 million on Friday.

If it is lucky, Get on Up could open with just over $20 million. It does have some real strengths, including excellent reviews. It is also a biopic of James Brown, who is one of the best known singers in the history of Rock 'n' Roll. The film's release date will likely not help, but I could see it topping Ray's opening weekend, not taking into account the decade of ticket price inflation. That's probably a little optimistic, but $19 million during its opening weekend isn't an outrageous goal to aim for.

Lucy opened faster than expected, but it also has to deal with direct competition this weekend. Additionally, so far this summer, deep declines have been common and a 60% drop-off feels like the new norm. The film's reviews will neither hurt nor help, so look for a $17 million sophomore stint. This will keep it on pace for $100 million, but it will fall out of the top five before then.

Up next is Hercules, which should have a similar decline as Lucy will. It has better reviews, so it might avoid a 60% drop-off, but it will be close with just over $12 million. It will need to perform better on the international box office to break even and it is too soon to tell if that will happen.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should round out the top ten with $8 million. It remains on pace to reach $200 million, but it will likely fall out of the top ten before it does.