Wednesday, February 11, 2015

What is the Donbass fighting for?

“It is abundantly clear that the crisis will continue until such times as the Ukrainians achieve harmony between themselves and society, instead of being submerged in the roar of radicalism and nationalism, will unite around more positive values and reflect the true interests of the Ukraine”, – from an interview with Vladimir Putin.

“Novorussia, consisting of the pro-Russian Ukraine, Russia and Belorussia together form the Russian world - a multi-layered doll (Matryoshka) where every element forms part of the wider whole”

Whenever the Russian authorities articulate the view that this conflict will end with the establishment of a “united Ukrainian people” the question inevitably arises – And what about Novorossiya – What is the Donbass fighting for, Novorossiya or a unified Ukraine?

This question is regularly used by propagandists of a ‘patriotic’ inclination, who as often as not, are likely to couple it with refrains of “the Kremlin’s betrayal” or the “sell-out of Novorossiya”. However even without the help of these “well-wishers”, Russians are still confused by this artificial conflict between Novorossiya and the other Ukrainian people.

However, the answer is simple and obvious: Donbass struggles for Novorossiya and more widely for a pro-Russian Ukraine and ultimately for Russia and the Russian world pitted against the aggression of the West. All are stages of the same process.

Novorossiya, consisting of the pro-Russian Ukraine, Russia and Belorussia together form the Russian world - a multi-layered doll (Matryoshka) where every element forms part of the wider whole. We fight for every part of it with no element of differentiation. Ukraine as a country and people do not threaten us. However, Ukraine as a Western political project, animated by the ideology of Bandera and Nazism, with its Nazi oligarch elite, does.

Geographical Ukraine, freed from Russophobic propaganda can and should remain part of the Russian world as per its cultural traditions. Those who support the violent de-nazification are in fact on the contrary aiding the process of nazification and the estrangement of Ukraine from Russia.

Yes sure, we have, for now, lost the battle for hearts and minds for the Russian population there. However, in the long term the people will still be ours. The West is using and playing with them and will anyway simply discard them, and when they do that land will remain forever the source of our culture. That is exactly why we should never set Novorossiya against the geographical Ukraine.

There is nothing surprising when the Russian leadership encourages Novorossiya and almost simultaneously the Ukrainian people, as necessary. This is the norm for geopolitical politics. It is entirely possible to, without sacrificing your principles and interests, try different combinations to promote them.

Given that the west (covertly or at least not overtly) has used Fascist puppets to pull the Ukrainian lands away from Russia, Russia has also had to act indirectly assisting the Ukrainian population in Novorossiya in the defense of their interests. This applies to the contradictory tensions between the Banderovites and the Euro-integrationists who also tried to break the Donbass and force her to become part of their Ukrainian vision.

Now, Kiev and the west, after months of bloodshed have broken their (military) teeth on the Novorossiyan army. They now understand that it is impossible to break the will of Donbass through violence, but that to simply let her go will be even more traumatic. Russia will compel Kiev to acknowledge the Donbass as a sovereign subject on Ukrainian territory and the Donbass itself will become a virtual state in its own right within boundaries but still forming its own separate pole of strength within the Ukraine proper.

In summary, Moscow and Donbass are compelling Kiev (which has been taken over by Banderovites and Americans), to take Russian interests into account. The Donbass, in a figurative sense, binds the remainder of the Ukraine to Russia and stops that remainder from forging a definitive break from Russia. Moreover this threatens the main political project, that of ‘The Ukraine is not Russia’, whose driving principle is the establishment of a mono-ethnic Ukrainian State, that is an end point where all citizens of the Ukraine, in one voice hate Russians and are in fact, Nazis.

It goes without saying that an open and more vigorous war of the Russian world in the Ukraine would be preferable to the current cautious moves of the Russian state. The flag of Russia fluttering alongside the flag of Novorossiya with the symbols of the pro-Russian Ukraine flying above armies freeing the territory from Fascists all the way to Lvov, would be closer to the heart of Russian people and patriots.

This is indeed the case and it is easy to understand the patriotic dissatisfaction with the current strategy. But we must restrain ourselves here and accept that Russia cannot act so openly, as to do so would risk a direct confrontation with the US and NATO. Moreover it is critical to delay such a confrontation and to chip away at Washington’s ‘Coalition of the Willing’. Indeed if we look at the recent utterances of France and Germany, even without listing the positions taken by the likes of the Czech Republic, Greece and Austria, there would appear to be signs that this approach is bearing fruit. A direct confrontation with the consolidated western countries when the dollar system is still dominant would be the politics of haste and adventure. Time is on Russia’s side.

‘Well that’s fine’ the naysayers cry, but what happened with the Crimea? How is it a special case but not the Donbass? Is it really the case that the Crimea is more ‘Russian’ than the Donbass? No, of course not. The issue here is not some degree of ‘Russianness’, that’s a fabricated issue – to compare the ‘deservedness’ of the Crimea and Donbass. The examples of Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Ilovaisk and Gorlovka, the blood-drenched battles with the Banderovites and their punitive battalions, have declared their Russian nature more than anyone else. Crimea does have one outstanding characteristic – Its unique geographical situation and its military status.

As a Russian military base and a peninsular, the Crimea could painlessly secede from the Ukraine, raising its periscope to the north and waving goodbye to the Nazis in Kiev. The return of the Crimea to Russia does not lead to the loss of the whole of the Ukraine from Russia. Similarly, the Crimea for the Banderovites was like the 5th leg of a dog – to amputate it would be painful but it’s completely impossible to do anything with it and moreover at the critical moment there are always those Russian bases.

Should Russia have allowed these American Puppets to take the Crimea and expell the Russian Fleet, this would have been interpreted as a crushing strategic defeat for Russia, having lost its main base on the black sea. However, this was averted because of the Crimean operation. This is where we see the ‘special status’ of the Crimea and the geopolitical meaning of her return to Russia.

However, the Donbass presents a completely different proposition. It’s simply impossible to divorce her so painlessly from Kiev. From all military history it is clear that if we lead an army to the Donbass, then we need to go at least as far as the Dnieper river and with every step to the west the front becomes wider and extends from the Black sea to the Belorussian forests. Finally if we say that after the referendum in the Crimea, that that was the best time to undertake such a campaign, the Kremlin chose not to take that path and now it is so much more difficult to do that as to be impossible.

A different course has been chosen. Donbass as a dead-weight for the pro-western Ukraine and as a staging point for Pro-Russian Ukraine. The task ahead for Donbass is complex and will demand enormous effort – The future Novorossiya has to become a beacon for the rest of the east and eventually a Nazi-free model for the whole Ukraine. This can be achieved by war, diplomatic or economic means.

At the moment only the military solution is in motion, which, tragically, is leading to enormous fatalities amongst the civilian population. In order to progress to a non-military phase a truce and a real cease-fire is required. Moscow is trying to achieve this through the Minsk agreement.

Ultimately it must be understood that the redemption of the Ukraine is dependent on the results of the global confrontation between Moscow and Washington, the US and Russia between the West and everyone else.

The trump cards of the west are the dollar and resultant financial colonialism. If this collapses the Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan and the rest will be freed. The whole world will change beyond recognition.

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