Wednesday, December 2, 2015

MCM Marathon 2015: Fairly Big Spike in Participation

Looking back at last year's comparison, 2014 had a drop in qualification numbers. But in 2015, MCM has bucked the trend we've seen with the feeders - they have 17.8% more finishers! I wonder if more people signed up? Doesn't this race have a lottery?

Boy, am I itching now to see how this affects the cutoff (though, I think we can safely assume, it's going to go up).

(Note that I find these stories just fascinating! Though I hear this guy has fessed up and apologized unlike some other folks I've heard about in the past, which kudos to him.)

The age group qualifier data:

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

129

3579

3.60%

137

3983

3.44%

F35-39

32

1402

2.28%

54

1805

2.99%

F40-44

60

1431

4.19%

63

1759

3.58%

F45-49

69

960

7.19%

62

1314

4.72%

F50-54

29

670

4.33%

40

857

4.67%

F55-59

12

329

3.65%

22

433

5.08%

F60-64

12

123

9.76%

10

163

6.13%

F65-69

4

49

8.16%

2

55

3.64%

F70-74

1

13

7.69%

0

18

0.00%

F75-79

0

2

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

96

3461

2.77%

103

3659

2.81%

M35-39

45

1811

2.48%

57

2049

2.78%

M40-44

50

1854

2.70%

44

2147

2.05%

M45-49

59

1525

3.87%

76

1901

4.00%

M50-54

44

1122

3.92%

63

1438

4.38%

M55-59

32

698

4.58%

47

797

5.90%

M60-64

21

366

5.74%

29

428

6.78%

M65-69

16

166

9.64%

19

224

8.48%

M70-74

2

48

4.17%

4

67

5.97%

M75-79

0

12

0.00%

0

13

0.00%

M80+

0

1

0.00%

0

3

0.00%

Totals

713

19622

3.63%

832

23114

3.60%

Qualification rate is just slightly down, but look at the total qualifiers. It's up 16.7% year over year!

Wow.

The qualifier margin data:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

56

7.85%

58

6.97%

1-2 minutes

48

6.73%

68

8.17%

2-3 minutes

41

5.75%

53

6.37%

3-4 minutes

37

5.19%

45

5.41%

4-5 minutes

40

5.61%

36

4.33%

5-10 minutes

158

22.16%

190

22.84%

10-20 minutes

211

29.59%

217

26.08%

20> minutes

122

17.11%

165

19.83%

Totals

713

832

Squeaker Pack is slightly larger in 2015 at 31.25% versus 31.14% in 2014... so another bucking of the trend for MCM - more folks with less than 5 minutes. This also may have an impact on the cutoff calculation (just looking at the 0-2 minutes, there are 4% more qualifiers in this range than in 2014).

Bonus margin data by age group:

AG

Year

< 1 min

1 - 2 min

2 - 3 min

3 - 4 min

4 - 5 min

5 - 10 min

10 - 20 min

20 > min

F18-34

MCM2014

10.1%

7.0%

3.9%

10.9%

5.4%

19.4%

27.9%

15.5%

F18-34

MCM2015

6.6%

6.6%

5.8%

5.8%

3.6%

24.8%

25.5%

21.2%

F35-39

MCM2014

12.5%

9.4%

9.4%

6.3%

3.1%

25.0%

18.8%

15.6%

F35-39

MCM2015

13.0%

0.0%

1.9%

3.7%

0.0%

33.3%

27.8%

20.4%

F40-44

MCM2014

11.7%

8.3%

13.3%

5.0%

8.3%

13.3%

25.0%

15.0%

F40-44

MCM2015

4.8%

7.9%

9.5%

3.2%

6.3%

28.6%

27.0%

12.7%

F45-49

MCM2014

4.3%

8.7%

4.3%

5.8%

4.3%

34.8%

27.5%

10.1%

F45-49

MCM2015

8.1%

16.1%

8.1%

4.8%

4.8%

19.4%

21.0%

17.7%

F50-54

MCM2014

3.4%

10.3%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

31.0%

34.5%

10.3%

F50-54

MCM2015

7.5%

5.0%

7.5%

7.5%

7.5%

17.5%

27.5%

20.0%

F55-59

MCM2014

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

8.3%

0.0%

16.7%

41.7%

8.3%

F55-59

MCM2015

4.5%

9.1%

9.1%

9.1%

9.1%

18.2%

9.1%

31.8%

F60-64

MCM2014

8.3%

8.3%

0.0%

16.7%

8.3%

25.0%

8.3%

25.0%

F60-64

MCM2015

0.0%

10.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

50.0%

30.0%

F65-69

MCM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

75.0%

F65-69

MCM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

F70-74

MCM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

F70-74

MCM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

M18-34

MCM2014

6.3%

5.2%

8.3%

3.1%

1.0%

22.9%

30.2%

22.9%

M18-34

MCM2015

4.9%

9.7%

8.7%

4.9%

2.9%

23.3%

22.3%

23.3%

M35-39

MCM2014

11.1%

4.4%

6.7%

2.2%

8.9%

20.0%

33.3%

13.3%

M35-39

MCM2015

1.8%

10.5%

7.0%

5.3%

5.3%

22.8%

31.6%

15.8%

M40-44

MCM2014

10.0%

6.0%

0.0%

2.0%

6.0%

24.0%

38.0%

14.0%

M40-44

MCM2015

6.8%

2.3%

4.5%

6.8%

4.5%

25.0%

31.8%

18.2%

M45-49

MCM2014

6.8%

3.4%

1.7%

3.4%

11.9%

22.0%

35.6%

15.3%

M45-49

MCM2015

14.5%

13.2%

6.6%

7.9%

3.9%

14.5%

22.4%

17.1%

M50-54

MCM2014

9.1%

13.6%

4.5%

4.5%

9.1%

15.9%

29.5%

13.6%

M50-54

MCM2015

7.9%

6.3%

3.2%

0.0%

7.9%

28.6%

28.6%

17.5%

M55-59

MCM2014

3.1%

0.0%

12.5%

0.0%

6.3%

18.8%

37.5%

21.9%

M55-59

MCM2015

4.3%

12.8%

6.4%

8.5%

4.3%

17.0%

23.4%

23.4%

M60-64

MCM2014

0.0%

9.5%

0.0%

4.8%

0.0%

33.3%

23.8%

28.6%

M60-64

MCM2015

6.9%

0.0%

6.9%

10.3%

0.0%

20.7%

37.9%

17.2%

M65-69

MCM2014

12.5%

6.3%

0.0%

0.0%

6.3%

12.5%

25.0%

37.5%

M65-69

MCM2015

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

21.1%

31.6%

21.1%

M70-74

MCM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

M70-74

MCM2015

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

I hope to get the cutoff prediction post done this week now that I've automated much of the data output into CSVs that I can import into spreadsheets.

The big question is just how much upward pressure will MCM apply to the cutoff.