Tag Archives: Math

Posted onJune 1, 2018byAZ BlueMeanie|Comments Off on California’s jungle primary could prevent Democrats from taking back the House

Democrats need to retake 24 house seats to take back Congress in November. 7 of those 24 seats are in California, districts currently represented by vulnerable Republicans which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

You would think, “we’re a third of the way home!,” but you would be wrong.

So-called good government reformers (“goo-goos”) convinced enough Californians to vote for the top two primary aka jungle primary in 2010, in which candidates pretend to run in a non-partisan primary election and the top two vote getters advance to the general election. Their stated goal is that this would result in more moderate or centrist candidates being elected rather than partisan extremists. The results have proven them wrong.

For the past two election cycles the Top Two Primary folks tried pushing this nonsense as a ballot measure in Arizona, fully supported by the editorial staff of The Arizona Republic. Luckily these goo-goos failed, and there was not a third attempt this election cycle.

Goo-goos do not understand human behavior, nor can they do math. Motivated by what happened in 2016, there is a plethora of Democratic candidates running in these seven districts on Tuesday, which only splinters the Democratic vote by the number of candidates running. Republicans on the other hand, always tribal in their voting behavior, have the vulnerable incumbent and the odd challenger running, or only a couple of Republicans running in open seat districts.

On Tuesday, despite the heavy Democratic voter advantage in “blue” California, Republicans could very well emerge with both of the top two positions via the top two primary aka jungle primary, and with it the Democrats’ opportunity to take back Congress this November. Democrats’ California conundrum could cost them the House:

One week before the June 5 vote, California Republicans face the near-certainty of failing to advance a candidate to the general election for US Senate, and the risk, though fading, of failing to place a candidate on the November ballot for Governor. Democrats, meanwhile, are terrified that they will be shut out next week in one or more Republican-held US House districts, particularly in suburban Orange County. Party strategists see winning these seats as key steps in their path back to majority control.

Whether [New York Daily News columnist and Bernie Sanders supporter Shaun King] intended it or not, he implied that caucuses — which often require hours of participation and mean lower turnout — are representative of what would happen if a larger electorate had its say.

Well, a funny thing happened in Washington on Tuesday: The state held a mail-in, beauty-contest primary — so voting was easy, but no delegates were at stake. (The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner.) The results are still being finalized, but Clinton leads by about 6 percentage points with more than 700,000 votes counted. Sanders won the Washington caucuses, which had 230,000 participants, by 46 percentage points.

So, turnout was much higher in the Washington primary than in the caucuses, and Clinton did much better. Something similar happened in Nebraska, where Clinton lost the early March caucuses by 14 percentage points and won the early May primary, in which no delegates were awarded, by 7 points.

Nebraska and Washington are part of a pattern. As Sanders fans claim that the Democratic primary system is rigged against their candidate and that Sanders wins when turnout is higher, they fail to point out that Sanders has benefited tremendously from low-turnout caucuses. Indeed, if all the caucuses were primaries, Clinton would be winning the Democratic nomination by an even wider margin than she is now.

March 14th has been known as Pi Day ever since math promoters realized the fun that could be had with the date, but in 2015, Pi Day really is significant as the mathematical moment of Pi–3.141592653–will only come around once in a lifetime, on March 14th, 2015 at 9:26 a.m. and 53 seconds. It will be a moment captured in mathematical perfection for fans of the mathematical constant representing the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter.

For those like us in the U.S. who use the Western Calendar, we can watch our smartphones and clocks tick over to that time, and have the enjoyment of living during the instant of “Pi” carried out to 10 digits.

A moment like this won’t be back for another hundred years, March 14th, 2115.

So head on out to your favorite restaurant, bakery or pie shop this morning and celebrate “Perfect Pi Day” the right way, with a slice of your favorite pie.

What’s the future of energy for Tucson? Solar power. Wind energy. Hydroelectric. Geothermal. Nuclear power. What are the alternatives to our fossil fuel addiction? How can we implement them? What are the advantages? What are the challenges?There are a lot … Continue reading →

Closed Captions Eating Animals TUESDAY, AUGUST 14 AT 7:30PM | REGULAR ADMISSION PRICES Thanks to our community partner, Food Conspiracy Co-Op! “How much do you know about the food that’s on your plate? Based on the bestselling book by Jonathan … Continue reading →

“Glendale, we have a new office coming your way! Come out to our office opening party this Wednesday at 5:30pm! Meet our local AZ Dems team and become a #trailblAZing volunteer. RSVP here: https://my.azdem.org/event/map/98114” https://www.facebook.com/events/301138480642465/Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

Hosted by YWCA Arizona – STAT-Stand Together Arizona Training & Advocacy “Some people think that voting has gone to the dogs, so let’s prove them wrong and have a party. YWCA STAT team invites you to bring your ballot and … Continue reading →

“All Candidates running for State Legislator and Senator in Legislative Districts Two and Three have been invited. Moderated by Ernesto Portillo, Jr. The focus is on education, come ask your questions. Free and open to the public! Hosted by Arizona … Continue reading →

Our next meeting is on August 18th, 6:30 pm-8:00 pm at the Murphy-Wilmot Library, 530 N. Wilmot Rd., Tucson, Arizona 85711. “We will be meeting in the large meeting room. This meeting is a planning and strategy meeting for direction … Continue reading →

Hosted by League of Women Voters of Central Yavapai County https://www.facebook.com/events/1921462437904567/Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

“We’re having a party this Saturday to celebrate our new office opening in Nogales! Come meet other local Democrats and find out how to join our #trailblAZing volunteer team. RSVP here: https://my.azdem.org/event/map/98614 It’s the office with pink flowers on the windows!” https://www.facebook.com/events/288515001948085/ Share … Continue reading →

*Please note that this meeting is on the 3rd Sunday of the month, instead of the usual 2nd Sunday. “Carmen Liñero-Lopez with the Feminist Majority will be speaking to us about her work to energize and get out the student … Continue reading →

Pima County Democratic Party Chair Jo Holt will be speaking on “Electing Democrats and Looking forward to the General Election”. The Arizona primary is on August 28, 2018 so don’t forget to vote. Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

Hosted by Presidio San Agustín del Tucson and La Cocina Restaurant & Cantina “Tucson’s official birthday party will take place in the Presidio District on Aug. 20, the City’s actual birthday, from 5-7:30 pm. Hosted by the Tucson/Pima County Historic … Continue reading →

The RSVP Deadline is August 19th The Child Separation Fiasco: How did we get here? The policy of family separation evoked alarm and outrage from the general public this summer. But this practice is merely the latest in a decades-long … Continue reading →

“Join us on August 24 to learn about the current status of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the opportunities in revisiting the agreement, and the current status of negotiations between Canada, Mexico and the United States. Mr. Lopez will also discuss … Continue reading →

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