Proponents, including local governmental agencies and citizens, are mobilizing potential riders and organizing supporters as they prepare to seek federal money.

The showdown begins March 8, when Portland’s Planning and Sustainability Commission is expected to make a recommendation to the City Council.

Eventually, the Multnomah and Clackamas county commissions and the Lake Oswego City Council will weigh in. The Metro Council will make the ultimate decision on the project’s fate, probably this summer.

Proponents claim the streetcar would ease congestion along Highway 43 between Portland and Lake Oswego. It would run mostly along existing tracks currently traveled by the privately operated Willamette Shore trolley.

Area jurisdictions have spent $5 million studying the project’s environmental impact. Earlier this month, citizens from Portland and Lake Oswego and project managers recommended approval.

If the proposal moves ahead, local cities and counties would need to pour another $18 million into a final environmental impact statement before the project receives federal funds. Officials hope to obtain at least 50 percent matching funds for the $379 million to $450 million project from the Federal Transit Administration.

Both opponents and proponents claim public support. Anti-streetcar forces point to a public hearing in Lake Oswego where 41 persons spoke out against the project, compared to 38 who supported it.

However, polling in the past year showed that two in three Lake Oswego residents back the streetcar, said Mayor Jack Hoffman, a supporter.

Opposition to the plan centers mainly on cost.

“If you took a survey of 1,000 Lake Oswego everyday citizens, I’d bet you wouldn’t find 10 percent of them who’d put the streetcar in their top 10 list of needs over the next 30 years,” said Jon Harnish, owner of Lake Oswego’s Harnish Properties at Realty Trust and a former member of the Lake Oswego Planning Commission. “We can’t afford to keep our schools open: Why focus on something that’s truly a luxury?”

Streetcar adversaries also noted that in last November’s election, two anti-project candidates -— Jeff Gudman and Mike Kehoe — won Lake Oswego council seats, joining vocal streetcar opponent Mary Olson on the council.

Project backers, including several business executives, respond that the streetcar would eventually cost less to operate than an enhanced bus service line that would run between the two cities.

A citizens advisory group had rejected the bus option partly because it would cost some $1.5 million more to operate yearly than the streetcar, said Doug Obletz, the project’s manager and a principal of Portland planning firm Shiels Obletz Johnsen.

Business benefit or obstacle?

A proposal to shift the existing route west so that it follows a John’s Landing section of Southwest Macadam Avenue could make about 1 million square feet in developable commercial space very attractive to investors, said Portland developer Vern Rifer.

The streetcar line traveling from downtown into Portland’s Pearl District has added cache to that area. Supporters maintain the new line could do the same for South Waterfront, John’s Landing and downtown Lake Oswego.

“The urban streetcar has become a really important development tool,” said Beverly Bookin, whose firm The Bookin Group LLC specializes in land-use issues. “It’s there for the long haul. Real estate agents know that people value inner-city living with mixed-use (projects). And John’s Landing is an inner-city neighborhood with development capacity that hasn’t been developing.”

Project challengers maintain that Portland developer Homer Williams, who’s agreed to develop the 120-acre Foothills property in northeast Lake Oswego — home to a proposed rail stop — would benefit from the project but few others would.

Tom Maginnis, owner of $1 million-plus Portland company Computerized Entertainment Concepts Inc., believes the line would quickly become obsolete. The Lake Oswego resident is convinced the region will one day add a light-rail line down Interstate 5, “which would help all residents and developers, including the ones at Foothills.”

Olson, first elected to Lake Oswego’s city council in 2008, argues the project could actually hurt developers.

“We have developments in South Waterfront and John’s Landing,” she said. “How many people believe there will be a market for all that coming on at the same time? And where will the financing come from?”

Hoffman, also elected in 2008, personally supports the light rail project but wants to hear from opponents during the city’s upcoming consideration processes.

Hoffman, an attorney with Portland’s Dunn Carney Allen Higgins & Tongue LLP, points to an Urban Land Institute study indicating that demand for housing-oriented developments in Lake Oswego should increase because residents are demanding more urban-type services.

“And if that’s correct, then private equity investors will be looking for opportunities both around the streetcar and around Southeast Portland,” he said.

LAKE OSWEGO STREETCAR PROS

GENERAL

• Generates between 1,430 and 1,500 construction jobs.

• Carries 1,700 more trips per day, or more than 500,000 trips a year more than an enhanced bus service alternative.

• Provides an alternative to congestion on Highway 43.

FUNDING

• Dating back to the 1980s, the Portland region has secured more than $1.6 billion in federal funding for rail projects.

• The Federal Transit Administration could provide up to a 60 percent federal match for the project

• The streetcar would cost $39 million less over 25 years to operate and maintain than the enhanced bus alternative.

ENVIRONMENT

• Would reduce vehicle miles traveled per day by 68,000 miles by 2035 within the streetcar’s corridor

• Would eliminate about 15,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually and reduce fuel consumption by 58,000 to 66,400 gallons per year.

• The proposal would clean 31 known hazardous sites in compliance with applicable state and federal standards.

Source: Shiels Obletz Johnsen

LAKE OSWEGO STREETCAR CONS

GENERAL

• The congestion relief on Highway 43 would only equate to eliminating 100 autos from the road by the year 2035.

• Only 425 riders would use the streetcar during rush hour.

• Oregon City and West Linn transit riders could lose their bus service.

FUNDING

• Federal funds aren’t guaranteed because more communities are competing for New Starts funding from the Federal Transit Administration.

• With that guarantee, local governments risk losing between $5 million and $25 million on environmental impact studies.

• Even with federal matches, governments could need to contribute between $86 million and $144 million for the project.

ENVIRONMENT

• The line would travel over two earthquake faults, as well as landslide hazard areas and floodplains.