We think this is a major mismatch on the mound and at the plate. The visitors give the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (7-7, 3.04 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits with three walks and eight strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Foltynewicz remains competitive with this 3.04 ERA and 53:18 K:BB over 43.1 frames (note that he owns a 2.93 ERA on the road.) The home side goes with the erratic Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.36) who gave up two runs off three hits with three walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Friday. It was his firs start since mid June and he’ll come into this Thursday night matchup with the brutal ERA to go along with a poor 1.79 WHIP and 35:17 K:BB over 42 innings. Note that Atlanta is 31-15 (+18.6 units) this year against the division, while New York is just 18-21 (-5.8 units) against divisional foes. All signs point to a blowout. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES.

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