THE NEW YOR.KER. other popular senator, a strong speaker, a Southerner, but has balked at running for the Presidency for what he said were family reasons). And then again Dukakis and his people might come up with an entirely new idea. Bush has the luxury of spending long .r on his decision, and waiting until after the Democratic Convention, in mid- July (the Republican Conven- tion begins in mid-August), to weigh all the factors, including the Demo- cratic ticket. A number of Republican Vice- Presidential names are floating around, and two cri teria, aside from the usual high-minded ones, appear to be Bush's feeling of compatibility with his choice and the political exigencies of the Bush effort. In other words, a decision will be taken as to whether Bush most needs to mollify the moder- ates (which could lead him to a number of names) or the conservatives (which could lead him to Jack Kemp). The name of California Governor George Deukmejian has been floating around, but recently it has sunk in upon the Bush people that Deukmejian would be replaced by a Democrat and that this would not sit at all well with Califor- nia Republicans. (The current polit- ical thinking is that Dukakis cannot win without California but that Bush can. Still, Lee Atwater, Bush's cam- paign manager, says, "I can see three, four ways we could win without California, but it would be no fun, so the easiest thing for us is to win Cali- fornia." When we spoke, a couple of days ago, Atwater was planning to go to California to scout the situation. Bush people say that because of Rea- gan's dominance Bush has had little exposure there.) Others said to be un- der serious consideration are Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and Kansas Senator Nancy Kassebaum (these may be names floated for politi- cal effect), Senate Minority Whip Alan Simpson (popular, from Wyo- ming, and perhaps helpful in the West), another Western senator or two, and a number of governors or ex- governors: Thomas Kean, of New J er- sey (but an aristocratic preppie, like Bush); Lamar Alexander, (ex) of Tennessee; Richard Thornburgh, ( ex) of Pennsylvania; James Thompson, of Illinois (his name always seems to be on the Vice-Presidential list); and even White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker (who has tried to be a Vice- Presidential nominee as well as a Presidential one, but hasn't shown much national political appeal). By the time the choices are made, some other names will probably be floated, some for political effect. That no one knows who the choices will be, and that some- times the decision doesn't make any difference, does not discourage the speculation. T HOUGH the outlines of the gen- eral election are already clear, something always happens, and some issue or other always develops, that no one can foresee. Noone should doubt that this will be a tough, hard-fought election. Bush has shown himself to be tenacious, and his campaign staff has shown that it can play very rough; Dukakis is about as determined as a person can be, a tough cookie, and he has shown that he can play rough. The Bush people have been saying that they expect the election to be very close, and some people solemnly accept this as inside information, but what else can the Bush people say? They can't say that they expect to win, for fear of fostering lethargy in the troops; and they can't exactly say that they expect to lose. Some Bush people have been confident-overconfident, in the eyes of some Republicans-but others be- lieve that Dukakis will not be easy to defeat. Atwater says, "He has shown that he's formidable, durable, and knows how to follow a plan." One Bush adviser said to me recently that among Dukakis's advantages are that he is a new face, that the public might decide after eight years of a Republican Administration that it is time for a change, that Dukakis is very smart and has run a good campaign, he has largely avoided the traps set by the special interests, he speaks Spanish, has an ethnic appeal, and has a Jewish wife. The Dukakis people themselves ar- gue that their campaign has navigated through the special interests and avoid- ed looking like Mondale four years ago, but Dukakis has made a few promises, including a very expensive one demanded by certain Social Secu- rity recipients, who feel that they didn't get as large a windfall from a change in the law as other retirees got. In New York, he also made a little- noticed statement, to a senior-citizens forum, that he favored ending the tax- ation of half of Social Security benefits 81 FOR FATHER'S DAY IIGive him the NEWSPAPER OF HIS BIRTH DATE" · William Blackbeard, Press HIs- torian & President of National Newspaper Archives suggests: Enjoy the events of a loved one's blrthdate: fashion, sports, society, politics. Not a copy. Not a repro- duction The actual newspaper printed the day he was born. A marvelous gIft for sl2ecial occasIOns btrfhdaYß & anmversanes The largest collection of newspapers going back 100 years New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San FrancIsco, Boston, Atlanta, Dallas, and more Call 800 number to check available dates Satis- faction guaranteed or money back Order today. We Ship Today. CALL TOLL FREE 1-800-343-7488 h - ..!C O 7 _ Mail to. n. THE AUTHENTIC JOURNAL TIIENTI(; I 3120 VIa Mondo Rancho Dommguez. .' '. 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