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Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

It Takes Two to Handcuff

It takes two. Well, at least it does in monogamous relationships and chess matches.

This year, it takes two to capture the baseball fan's attention -- there's a pair of rookies that are taking the league by storm. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are already doing things that haven't been seen from a pair of guys who aren't of drinking age yet. They could become the best duo to debut in the same season without doing much better from here on out.

Most years, it takes (at least) two in your better bullpen. There are days when the primary closer has pitched too many games in a row, for example. And about a third of all pitchers hit the DL in a given year, so there will be the odd two-week stint where the number two has to step in for number one. Handcuffs are good, at least in monogamous relationships and chess matches.

In honor of these two types of twos, we'll name the tiers after dynamic duo debuts, and we'll point out the robins behind the batmen in each bullpen. Is it too much? You decide.

In 2008, you had a trio of youths, really, with Jacoby Ellsbury playing out his rookie eligibility to great success along with Longoria and Votto. Even if you use Ellsbury instead of Votto (since the Red Sox center fielder accrued three-tenths of a win above replacement more than the Reds first baseman), you get just over nine wins from your 2008 pairing. Harper and Trout are projected for just under nine wins, though, so they do belong in this conversation. And what a conversation it is -- Votto hit .297 with 24 home runs and seven stolen bases, Longoria hit .272 with 27 home runs and equaled his stolen base total while playing third, and Ellsbury hit .312 with 50 stolen bases in center field. What was in the water that year? Mike Aviles even put up four WAR that year.

In this tier, the backup men are likely to be of little use. Jonny Venters isn't having the year he had last year, but he's still the setup man. Probably won't see many saves. Once the Phillies get going, it will be Jonathan Papelbon getting all the saves, and Antonio Bastardo dominating the eighth inning. Even after a little hiccup, Mitchell Boggs is behind Jason Motte in St. Louis. Well behind.

Newcomer Kenley Jansen has always had the elite strikeout rate, but the former catcher had a control problem. That was before this year. Now his walk rate is hovering around average, and he's actually throwing more balls into the zone than the league-average pitcher. And still nobody can make any contact -- he has 48 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings! 12 walks in that sample doesn't mean he'll never have trouble with his control again, and he has walked batters in four of his last eight appearances, but Jansen looks dominant and deserves this. Josh Lindblom is probably next in line. Doesn't matter much.

Four wins above replacement makes you an All-Star player most years. In 2006, Dan Uggla (4.5 WAR) and Hanley Ramirez (4.6 WAR) managed that feat as teammates, which is pretty sweet. The teammate tandems that make up this tier are also pretty sweet.

Aroldis Chapman spits fire. Well, he blew a save this week and finally gave up some runs, but his work in back-to-back games cements his status as the closer, and makes Sean Marshall a backup. But Marshall will get some saves still, considering Chapman's reluctance to warm on consecutive nights. At least nights when Chapman has pitched twice in a row still seem open for Marshall.

We've been waiting for him find the plate again and return to the elite form that he found the last two years, but it's not coming. John Axford keeps walking too many batters, and he's now throwing balls in the zone at his career-lowest rate. There's no reason to think that he will have a nice WHIP going forward -- he'll probably keep his job and give his owners plenty of strikeouts and saves, but he'll also give up plenty of walks. Francisco Rodriguez isn't having a K-Rod season, but he's still the second half of that back-end tandem in Milwaukee.

Santiago Casilla hopped right back on the horse and rewarded our patience in him by proving he was still the sole closer over the past week. In the meantime, Sergio Romo showed that he's the handcuff, even if Javier Lopez will get the occasional situational save. Casilla might use his backup more than others, since Romo is so excellent, but J.J. Putz will need David Hernandez at some point. And Joe Nathan might need Mike Adams to take the ball once or twice, considering his age. Joel Hanrahan left town to deal with family stuff for a little bit, and Juan Cruz was the guy who got his save chances, but it's Jason Grilli who's doing more of the setup work these days. Pick one. Matt Belisle would step in for Rafael Betancourt if there was an injury, but probably not because of poor play.

Two WAR makes you an average major league player, or so goes the general benchmark. To have a rookie turn in a major league average season in his first year is actually an impressive feat, even if it doesn't sound like it. Maybe it's old hat to some -- we've seen three duos turn in exactly two wins above replacement since 2005. Ryan Church and Clint Barmes did so in 2005 and Casey McGehee and Will Venable did it in 2009. But last year we had two speedsters that might factor into fantasy seasons for a long time manage the feat in Jemile Weeks and Ben Revere, and that just seems like a fun oddity. This tier is made up of an odd assortment of vets and young closers, but it'll work.

Addison Reed is looking safer these days. He's only walked one batter in his last nine appearances, and he always had excellent control in the minors. Suddenly, though, Jesse Crain is the setup man there and might be next in line. We learned when Huston Street was out that the mustachioed Dale Thayer was his backup. Thayer and Crain could see some saves, but if Reed and Street stay healthy, they won't see many. Pedro Strop backs up Jim Johnson, and might be the future closer in Baltimore, even if he did blow a game last week. Rafael Soriano blew a save, too, but it wasn't a huge blowup -- no walks, no home runs, and just three hits that led to a run and a blown save -- and the guess here is that David Robertson is his backup when he returns. Fernando Rodney and Chris Perez aren't the most stable relievers, so their partners in crime are interesting. At the same time, Fernando Rodney might have done enough to stave off Kyle Farnsworth's return. Chris Perez has also improved and Vinnie Pestano didn't get many chances while Perez was bad, so he's not likely to get many when Perez is better.

Should Heath Bell move up? He straight up stunk -- he couldn't locate his slower fastball and he was bouncing his curve -- until he was returned to the closer role May 28th. Since that day, he's struck out ten in 6 2/3 innings and only walked two. He's looked good, too. His contract already meant that Steve Cishek was likely to remain his backup, but now the performance is starting to look Bell-ian. Let's move him up.

There were actually two rookies in 2007 that managed to play to exactly zero wins above replacement, but Mike Rabelo didn't really have much of a career. So it's more impressive to find that Billy Butler and Delmon Young only managed three-tenths of a win together, considering how much playing time they got that year (over 1000 plate appearances). But if you pair a bad-glove outfielder with a no-glove designated hitter and neither walks at an average rate, that's what you get. A replacement player.

Brett Myers could stay in Houston all year and make his owners happy for the return they got on their cheap investment. But his contract vests at a certain number of games finished, and we all know what happened to Francisco Rodriguez when an uncompetitive team was faced with the same situation. The new crew in Houston has no loyalty to Myers, and all they need is a decent prospect back and he'll be gone. And if he's gone, so will his save chances disappear. It's probably Wilton Lopez back in Houston if Myers leaves -- his ground-ball heavy approach isn't quite ideal for the closer's role, but he's back to his elite walk rate, and striking out batters at a career-best rate. He'd be a pretty good closer, and a better Jim Johnson than Jim Johnson even. Brandon Lyon's numbers look good -- even in the peripherals -- but they are so out of line with his career numbers that they look ridiculous. Believe the other 590 or so innings before you believe the 20-plus he's put up this year.

Tuesday night, Jonathan Broxton saved a game -- not news -- but he struck out two batters -- that's news. With 16 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings, he's obviously not the ox he used to be. Greg Holland is back and has leapt ahead of the rest of the bullpen by putting up two Kimbrels (three strikeouts, no walks, no hits) since he's returned. Holland is the long-term own in this bullpen still, and at some point the Royals may just look to the future to see what they have before they make a decision on Joakim Soria's contract option.

Jose Valverde… well, he's the big potato. It's probably best to own his handcuff, Joaquin Benoit, if you're rolling Valverde to the mound. Valverde's strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) and ground-ball rate have disappeared, leaving him alone with his terrible control. This closer change could really happen, and we'll demote Valverde to reflect that chance.

Frank Francisco is safe in perhaps the worst bullpen in the league. His handcuff is probably Jon Rauch, but if you want to know how bad the bullpen is, Miguel Batista is probably next in line -- Manager Terry Collins said so at least, and maybe in response to Rauch's troubles against the Yankees. Matt Capps can't get the strikeouts of a Francisco, but he's in a better pen and has only blown one save all year. You can hang on to Glen Perkins if you like, but he doesn't look like he'll get many saves unless a deal happens. Capps probably wouldn't net them anything interesting like a decent catching prospect (cough cough Wilson Ramos), but that boat has sailed. Alfredo Aceves has one foot in the bottom tier and one foot in this tier. He saved a perfect frame Tuesday night, but he'd blown two of his last three games before that. He's still got an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his peripherals look good. And Andrew Bailey continues to talk about his return. And there's no clear backup ready to take the job.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.

It takes two. Well, at least it does in monogamous relationships and chess matches.

This year, it takes two to capture the baseball fan's attention -- there's a pair of rookies that are taking the league by storm. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are already doing things that haven't been seen from a pair of guys who aren't of drinking age yet. They could become the best duo to debut in the same season without doing much better from here on out.

Most years, it takes (at least) two in your better bullpen. There are days when the primary closer has pitched too many games in a row, for example. And about a third of all pitchers hit the DL in a given year, so there will be the odd two-week stint where the number two has to step in for number one. Handcuffs are good, at least in monogamous relationships and chess matches.

In honor of these two types of twos, we'll name the tiers after dynamic duo debuts, and we'll point out the robins behind the batmen in each bullpen. Is it too much? You decide.

In 2008, you had a trio of youths, really, with Jacoby Ellsbury playing out his rookie eligibility to great success along with Longoria and Votto. Even if you use Ellsbury instead of Votto (since the Red Sox center fielder accrued three-tenths of a win above replacement more than the Reds first baseman), you get just over nine wins from your 2008 pairing. Harper and Trout are projected for just under nine wins, though, so they do belong in this conversation. And what a conversation it is -- Votto hit .297 with 24 home runs and seven stolen bases, Longoria hit .272 with 27 home runs and equaled his stolen base total while playing third, and Ellsbury hit .312 with 50 stolen bases in center field. What was in the water that year? Mike Aviles even put up four WAR that year.

In this tier, the backup men are likely to be of little use. Jonny Venters isn't having the year he had last year, but he's still the setup man. Probably won't see many saves. Once the Phillies get going, it will be Jonathan Papelbon getting all the saves, and Antonio Bastardo dominating the eighth inning. Even after a little hiccup, Mitchell Boggs is behind Jason Motte in St. Louis. Well behind.

Newcomer Kenley Jansen has always had the elite strikeout rate, but the former catcher had a control problem. That was before this year. Now his walk rate is hovering around average, and he's actually throwing more balls into the zone than the league-average pitcher. And still nobody can make any contact -- he has 48 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings! 12 walks in that sample doesn't mean he'll never have trouble with his control again, and he has walked batters in four of his last eight appearances, but Jansen looks dominant and deserves this. Josh Lindblom is probably next in line. Doesn't matter much.

Four wins above replacement makes you an All-Star player most years. In 2006, Dan Uggla (4.5 WAR) and Hanley Ramirez (4.6 WAR) managed that feat as teammates, which is pretty sweet. The teammate tandems that make up this tier are also pretty sweet.

Aroldis Chapman spits fire. Well, he blew a save this week and finally gave up some runs, but his work in back-to-back games cements his status as the closer, and makes Sean Marshall a backup. But Marshall will get some saves still, considering Chapman's reluctance to warm on consecutive nights. At least nights when Chapman has pitched twice in a row still seem open for Marshall.

We've been waiting for him find the plate again and return to the elite form that he found the last two years, but it's not coming. John Axford keeps walking too many batters, and he's now throwing balls in the zone at his career-lowest rate. There's no reason to think that he will have a nice WHIP going forward -- he'll probably keep his job and give his owners plenty of strikeouts and saves, but he'll also give up plenty of walks. Francisco Rodriguez isn't having a K-Rod season, but he's still the second half of that back-end tandem in Milwaukee.

Santiago Casilla hopped right back on the horse and rewarded our patience in him by proving he was still the sole closer over the past week. In the meantime, Sergio Romo showed that he's the handcuff, even if Javier Lopez will get the occasional situational save. Casilla might use his backup more than others, since Romo is so excellent, but J.J. Putz will need David Hernandez at some point. And Joe Nathan might need Mike Adams to take the ball once or twice, considering his age. Joel Hanrahan left town to deal with family stuff for a little bit, and Juan Cruz was the guy who got his save chances, but it's Jason Grilli who's doing more of the setup work these days. Pick one. Matt Belisle would step in for Rafael Betancourt if there was an injury, but probably not because of poor play.

Two WAR makes you an average major league player, or so goes the general benchmark. To have a rookie turn in a major league average season in his first year is actually an impressive feat, even if it doesn't sound like it. Maybe it's old hat to some -- we've seen three duos turn in exactly two wins above replacement since 2005. Ryan Church and Clint Barmes did so in 2005 and Casey McGehee and Will Venable did it in 2009. But last year we had two speedsters that might factor into fantasy seasons for a long time manage the feat in Jemile Weeks and Ben Revere, and that just seems like a fun oddity. This tier is made up of an odd assortment of vets and young closers, but it'll work.

Addison Reed is looking safer these days. He's only walked one batter in his last nine appearances, and he always had excellent control in the minors. Suddenly, though, Jesse Crain is the setup man there and might be next in line. We learned when Huston Street was out that the mustachioed Dale Thayer was his backup. Thayer and Crain could see some saves, but if Reed and Street stay healthy, they won't see many. Pedro Strop backs up Jim Johnson, and might be the future closer in Baltimore, even if he did blow a game last week. Rafael Soriano blew a save, too, but it wasn't a huge blowup -- no walks, no home runs, and just three hits that led to a run and a blown save -- and the guess here is that David Robertson is his backup when he returns. Fernando Rodney and Chris Perez aren't the most stable relievers, so their partners in crime are interesting. At the same time, Fernando Rodney might have done enough to stave off Kyle Farnsworth's return. Chris Perez has also improved and Vinnie Pestano didn't get many chances while Perez was bad, so he's not likely to get many when Perez is better.

Should Heath Bell move up? He straight up stunk -- he couldn't locate his slower fastball and he was bouncing his curve -- until he was returned to the closer role May 28th. Since that day, he's struck out ten in 6 2/3 innings and only walked two. He's looked good, too. His contract already meant that Steve Cishek was likely to remain his backup, but now the performance is starting to look Bell-ian. Let's move him up.

There were actually two rookies in 2007 that managed to play to exactly zero wins above replacement, but Mike Rabelo didn't really have much of a career. So it's more impressive to find that Billy Butler and Delmon Young only managed three-tenths of a win together, considering how much playing time they got that year (over 1000 plate appearances). But if you pair a bad-glove outfielder with a no-glove designated hitter and neither walks at an average rate, that's what you get. A replacement player.

Brett Myers could stay in Houston all year and make his owners happy for the return they got on their cheap investment. But his contract vests at a certain number of games finished, and we all know what happened to Francisco Rodriguez when an uncompetitive team was faced with the same situation. The new crew in Houston has no loyalty to Myers, and all they need is a decent prospect back and he'll be gone. And if he's gone, so will his save chances disappear. It's probably Wilton Lopez back in Houston if Myers leaves -- his ground-ball heavy approach isn't quite ideal for the closer's role, but he's back to his elite walk rate, and striking out batters at a career-best rate. He'd be a pretty good closer, and a better Jim Johnson than Jim Johnson even. Brandon Lyon's numbers look good -- even in the peripherals -- but they are so out of line with his career numbers that they look ridiculous. Believe the other 590 or so innings before you believe the 20-plus he's put up this year.

Tuesday night, Jonathan Broxton saved a game -- not news -- but he struck out two batters -- that's news. With 16 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings, he's obviously not the ox he used to be. Greg Holland is back and has leapt ahead of the rest of the bullpen by putting up two Kimbrels (three strikeouts, no walks, no hits) since he's returned. Holland is the long-term own in this bullpen still, and at some point the Royals may just look to the future to see what they have before they make a decision on Joakim Soria's contract option.

Jose Valverde… well, he's the big potato. It's probably best to own his handcuff, Joaquin Benoit, if you're rolling Valverde to the mound. Valverde's strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) and ground-ball rate have disappeared, leaving him alone with his terrible control. This closer change could really happen, and we'll demote Valverde to reflect that chance.

Frank Francisco is safe in perhaps the worst bullpen in the league. His handcuff is probably Jon Rauch, but if you want to know how bad the bullpen is, Miguel Batista is probably next in line -- Manager Terry Collins said so at least, and maybe in response to Rauch's troubles against the Yankees. Matt Capps can't get the strikeouts of a Francisco, but he's in a better pen and has only blown one save all year. You can hang on to Glen Perkins if you like, but he doesn't look like he'll get many saves unless a deal happens. Capps probably wouldn't net them anything interesting like a decent catching prospect (cough cough Wilson Ramos), but that boat has sailed. Alfredo Aceves has one foot in the bottom tier and one foot in this tier. He saved a perfect frame Tuesday night, but he'd blown two of his last three games before that. He's still got an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his peripherals look good. And Andrew Bailey continues to talk about his return. And there's no clear backup ready to take the job.

Twins first baseman David McCarty wasn't quite the worst rookie ever by WAR -- that feat belongs to another former Twin in Christian Guzman -- but he did share a debut year with Jeff Branson in 1993. That year, the two of them combined to hit five home runs in nearly 600 plate appearances, and they didn't make up for it with any patience. Together they cost their respective teams over four wins combined, the worst for any pair of qualified rookies in a single calendar year. At least they were atop the leaderboard in a category? These closers probably won't lead any categories at all.

Yes, on talent, Ernesto Frieri is no David McCarty, and yes, he might actually lead some leaderboards (particularly strikeout rate ones). He's more of an Albert Pujols actually (most rookie WAR), since his funky release and great movement make his 93 mph fastball nearly invisible. But Scott Downs is still getting saves chances -- he had one Sunday. This is a real tandem, and if that's the case, the split in saves would most likely reflect the 1/2 vs. 2/3 split in the league's batter handedness. Downs gets the lefty-heavy lineups 1/4 of the time, Frieri gets the rest. Without that quirk, Frieri would jump up a tier-plus.

The Mariners have made some noise about moving Brandon League back into the ninth, and they have used their erstwhile closer as the setup man recently, so League is back in the mix. But right now, Wilhelmsen is the better pitcher. He's striking out double-digit batters per nine and is showing above-average control for once. Everything about what he's doing looks sustainable -- even if his control regresses a little, he has the strikeout punch to erase innings. League, on the other hand, has had inconsistent control over his career, and right now is showing a bad walk rate. His ground balls have also disappeared. He gave up two earned on four hits in his last eighth inning appearance, and that might have given Wilhelmsen more leash.

Tyler Clippard is the sole closer in Washington, but we're back to playing the "All Year" game -- is there any chance he's the closer the rest of the year? It doesn't seem likely, with Drew Storen on his way back. Clippard was probably always the best pick to replace Storen, but it took Henry Rodriguez to predictably walk a lineup or two for the team to see the light. While Storen is out, Clippard's backup is lefty Sean Burnett.

There's a new closer in our midst. Ryan Cook got his first save… and walked a guy. That's going to happen. He has 27 strikeouts and 16 walks in 27 innings, and his minor league career showed some bad walk rates, too. Keep Brian Fuentes close, maybe, since Sean Doolittle is pitching in the (sixth and) seventh in tight games, but Cook could take this and run with it. Grant Balfour is droppable -- they're shopping him and he pitched in the seventh Tuesday night.

We put Shawn Camp as the closer before he ever got a save, and there he was Tuesday night… saving a game for… Carlos Marmol. That bullpen is probably worse than New York's (okay definitely worse), but that's your relevant duo, considering James Russell has such terrible platoon splits.

Every piece of bad news for Sergio Santos is good news for Casey Janssen. Janssen isn't great -- his only elite rate is his walk rate, and his mediocre strikeout rate isn't backed up by a great ground-ball rate -- but he's better than his partner in crime, Jason Frasor… probably. Well, at least while Frasor can't find the plate. In fact, if Santos loses the year, Frasor becomes an interesting own. He's got the best swinging strike rate of his career.

Bad news. Sergio Santos felt renewed discomfort in his throwing shoulder last week and had to be shut back down. There's no timetable for him now. Andrew Bailey is playing catch and might be back soon, but Kyle Farnsworth actually has a target date -- June 28. Drew Storen is throwing off a mound and feels good, so he's probably the second-closest on this list.

Let's not put Brian Fuentes here just yet, but he's destined for this list for sure. James Russell might be too, although his reign on the top was short like leprechauns.

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The Steals Department

There's a trio of speedsters atop the leaderboard for steals this year, and all of them are sparsely owned. That might be because Tony Campana, Juan Pierre, and Jordan Schafer are all left-handed and are better used in a platoon (or actually used in a platoon in real life). Here's an idea for those that are hurting in steals but weren't that interested in one of these guys because of they don't play every day: create your own platoon. Pick up two of these guys and make sure you always have a banjo-hitting speed-only lefty facing a righty in your lineup. Hey, Tony Campana leads the majors in stolen bases. And it's easier to steal against a right-hander. It does make sense, even if it will rob you of a bench spot. Admitted: it's a better strategy in leagues with deep benches.

If you wanted a little power in your platoon, you could add in lefty Michael Saunders, who is raking in Seattle. The power is real (seven home runs so far), and so is the speed (ten stolen bases), but the .281 batting average looks like it will regress. Saunders has figured some things out, but isn't making a ton of contact, and his luck on the batted ball is probably going to regress. With his power, he's a good deep league pickup. Since he's a lefty, he's a better pickup than Rajai Davis, a righty who only enjoys the platoon advantage one-fourth of the time. It's lefty day in the steals department!