Analysis shows DeMaio got out the vote; Filner has potential to expand his base

Percentage of registered voters citywide who cast votes in the mayoral primary

San Diego  Republican City Councilman Carl DeMaio is in the November runoff for San Diego mayor based largely on his ability to get supporters to the polls at a far higher rate than his opponents in the primary earlier this month. By comparison, Democratic Rep. Bob Filner did a relatively poor job yet nearly finished ahead of DeMaio in the overall tally.

A U-T San Diego analysis of voter turnout showed 38 percent of registered voters citywide cast votes in the mayoral primary. In precincts where DeMaio finished first, the turnout was 46 percent while Filner’s precincts had a turnout of 31 percent.

The numbers can be viewed positively for both candidates. DeMaio clearly was more successful than his rivals in get-out-the-vote efforts, especially in neighborhoods where he is viewed favorably. Filner, who ran a low-key campaign and finished about 2,300 votes behind DeMaio, has great potential to expand his support base when the Democrats who ignored the primary show up to vote for President Barack Obama in November.

The analysis also showed that precincts with the largest share of whites voted at a much higher rate than those with the largest shares of Asians, Latinos and blacks. DeMaio fared better in those white precincts while Filner dominated among blacks and Latinos. DeMaio edged out Filner in heavily Asian precincts.

History is also running for and against Filner in his quest for the mayor’s job. The city has only elected one Democratic mayor in the past 40 years; the rest have been Republicans. On the plus side, in the past three mayor races without an incumbent, the second-place finisher in the primary was the eventual winner.

The city has steadily increased its Democratic ranks among registered voters to create a 12-point edge over Republicans today — 40 percent to 28 percent — an advantage Filner had in the primary.

Carl Luna, a political-science professor at San Diego Mesa College, said the numbers have been trending well for the Democratic Party in recent years, yet none of its mayoral candidates have been able to break through.

“That’s always been the problem with a Democrat for mayor,” he said. “Yes, they have a growing base, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to votes in the ballot box. The big question for Filner is ‘Who shows up to vote?’ ”

The answer could be almost everybody. Low voter turnout in past presidential primaries didn’t stop city voters from coming the polls in droves in 2004 (73 percent) and 2008 (83 percent) in November.

The U-T analyzed the primary results in the top 50 precincts of several demographic groups (most whites, most blacks, etc.) to determine turnout rates and each candidate’s strength among those groups.

• Precincts with highest percentage of whites in the voting-age population: The turnout was 52 percent. DeMaio finished first in 38 of them, Filner captured eight and three went to independent Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher. Filner and Fletcher tied in one precinct.