On Target: More Than Just The Looks

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. For more from him, you can find his personal musings on his blog RotobuzzGuy.com or follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy. For questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

It was another strong passing week in the NFL here in Week 11, but it was more of a feast or famine distribution as only six receivers cleared the century mark, tying Week 7 for the lowest number of 100-yard receivers this season. Sure, we had a number of the usual suspects pony up some killer fantasy points, but between injuries, ineffective ground games and under-performing quarterbacks, several players on whom we count each week failed to provide us with the necessary production to keep our fantasy teams in the win column.

With the help of an overtime period, a red hot Matt Schaub and a Jacksonville pass defense that looked like something out of a high school game, Andre Johnson turned in a beast of a performance this week, leading the NFL in targets, receptions and receiving yards for the week. It was his highest fantasy point total since Week 1 and his numbers were staggering in PPR play. You couldn’t ask for much more, and with upcoming match-ups against Detroit, Tennessee and New England could just be scratching the surface here.

After what seemed like the slowest start of his career, Calvin Johnson has now passed the century mark in yardage in each of his last three games and has found the end zone in his last two. Perhaps it has something to do with his 75-percent catch rate over the last three weeks, a number he has most certainly improved upon here. Through his first seven games, he had a catch rate of just 54.7-percent, and while this was a tough week for him catch-wise, he has definitely gotten back to the Megatron we all loved and revered.

We could go on and on about some of the staples here, but let’s take a look at some of the potential outliers…

Justin Blackmon finally found a quarterback he could jell with and his performance and the team’s investment in him could spark an interesting debate if Blaine Gabbert is healthy enough to play in Week 12. We’ve always known the potential was there, but he had been a disaster up until now. Maybe Gabbert is their choice for the future, but If Chad Henne is truly the answer, then the Jags really have no choice but to make the switch. It’s not like Gabbert has done anything special to date, has he? The biggest loser in this could be Laurent Robinson who failed to catch a pass all day and saw just two looks the entire game.

It looks like Danario Alexander is turning into the top guy in San Diego lately and should be treated as such after these last two weeks. Since the benching of Robert Meachem, Alexander has 18 targets with 12 catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns which actually surpass the two-week production of both Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates combined.

Until we get a full report on the concussion situation for Donnie Avery, I wouldn’t get too excited about T.Y. Hilton’s performance just yet. He’s been spectacular in two of the last three weeks so that is certainly working in his favor, but in order to be counted on each and every week, Avery needs to take a back seat. His targets have been a little on the inconsistent side.

With Brandon Pettigrew and Owen Daniels still active in their respective houses, endorsing a pick-up of either Tony Scheffler or Garrett Graham isn’t quite in the cards just yet. First of all, Scheffler’s catch rate for the day doesn’t exactly have anyone brimming with confidence, including Matthew Stafford, and Daniels was banged up and in coverage which allowed Graham to break out. We’ll see how it plays out, but with it being Week 11 and these being season-highs in targets for both, the outlook is murky, at best.

Welcome back to the NFL, Dallas Clark. The 11 targets was a season high and he’s now found the end zone in two straight games. Josh Freeman is suddenly expanding his target selection, so if the match-up is right, like it is in Weeks 14 and 15, you may want to give him a look.

And finally, another tight end emerging is Dwayne Allen who saw a season-high 11 targets and looks like he’s on Andrew Luck’s radar a lot more than Coby Fleener was. Maybe Luck and Fleener didn’t get along in college as well as we thought they did.

Ask any Wes Welker owner if the production has matched the draft position and even the happiest of owners in PPR leagues will tell you no. However, things could change now that Rob Gronkowski is out with a broken arm and Brandon Lloyd has been demoted out of two-receiver sets. Sure, Julian Edelman will steal some looks, but Tom Brady should start leaning on his go-to guy a little more often in the coming weeks.

While it’s too soon to tell, it would appear that Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is starting to distribute the ball a little more evenly to his receivers as Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are seeing the gap between their target percentages start to close. Bess found the endzone for the first time this season and if he can start garnering some additional red zone looks over the next few weeks, he could really increase his overall value.

Suddenly the gap between Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker is starting to widen again. Decker is still getting his red zone targets and finding the endzone, but he’s only seen nine targets over his last two games as opposed to 20 for Thomas in the same span. I wouldn’t say Decker should be downgraded to a WR3 just yet, but he’s going to need to rack up some more yardage to maintain his WR2 status.

Julio Jones’ ankle issue is obviously hampering his overall value, but Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez owners are more than happy to reap the benefits. Remember when these three were right on top of each other in target percentage? Now if we can only get Matt Ryan to never play like he did in Week 11 ever again…

With 23 targets, 18 catches and 143 yards over his last two games, it is safe to say that Danny Amendola is officially back and Sam Bradford is one happy quarterback. He should continue to climb back up the TPL in no time.

Carolina’s Brandon LaFell has finally found his way back to the TPL this week and should continue to stay here with some favorable match-ups coming. Starts against Philadelphia, Kansas City and Atlanta should be productive as the first two seem to have a bit of trouble with opposing number two receivers while the Atlanta match-up could be a strong passing day if the Panthers need to play catch-up.

And finally, beware of receivers on teams with shaky quarterback situations right now. Pittsburgh, Arizona, Philadelphia and San Francisco for right now with Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Chicago also looking potentially suspect.

Week 12 Match-up to Watch: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars – A lot could unfold in this match-up of two AFC bottom-feeders, both of who have suspect pass defenses. Jake Locker returns from a bye week having now spent two weeks studying how to expose a Jags defense that allows 277 passing yards per game with 14 passing touchdowns. Look for Kendall Wright and Nate Washington to excel. On the other side, you’ve got a definite QB controversy here with a whole lot of potential. The Titans pass D allows an average of 266 yards per game through the air while they’ve also coughed up 20 passing touchdowns. Cecil Shorts could have big days regardless of who is under center while Justin Blackmon and Marcedes Lewis could be in for another strong week with Chad Henne at the helm.

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