The Rookie Roller Coaster

The offensive rookies in this draft have now gone through OAT’s, training camp, and preseason games. There has been a few rookies that started this journey, low on our dynasty boards or not on them at all, who have surprised us and now need to be recognized. With the ups come the downs, and there have been a few players who have took a hit and have slipped down our dynasty rankings.

Here is a list of the guys to go out and get on your team along with a list of guys to be cautious about.

GUYS TO GET:

Kenbrell Thompkins – Thompkins was an undrafted free agent out of the University of Cincinnati, now he is one of Tom Brady’s main targets. Thompkins is a wide receiver who fits in perfectly with the Patriots because he can work on the outside or in the slot, which will keep him on the field and help his numbers this season. He is a receiver who is versatile (one thing that the Hoodie likes) which will hopefully translate into reliability as a target for Brady. Gronk being out for part of the season only helps Thompkins’ numbers, but even if Gronk is healthy, Thompkins will see the field a lot and his stats will be solid. In the preseason, Thompkins had 13 receptions for 142 yards, a lot coming in preseason game three. In game three he had eight catches from Brady for 116 yards, which proves his draftability for your squad.

Christine Michael- Michael is a running back who had four predecessors go in the 2013 NFL draft and I believe those teams will be upset they didn’t take Michael. Michael is in a backfield with Beast Mode, but Michael adds the speed dimension to the Seattle backfield. He has really busted out this preseason with 27 carries for an NFL high 186 yards. Michael’s burst when he hits the hole and speed after he gets through that hole is ridiculous. He also has soft hands that will help in catching the ball out of the backfield and produce stats that way also. Michael does have Lynch taking carries from him but he is worth owning on your dynasty team, as he seems to be a favorite to get plenty of carries this year and to be the future for the Seahawks.

Ace Sanders- Ace is a wide receiver that was pretty much known as an awesome return man and an okay wide receiver. The preseason has shown that he is an impressive return man for the Jaguars with great decision-making, but we have also seen that he is a really notable receiver. Justin Blackmon will be out for the first four weeks with his suspension, so its looking like Ace will be starting opposite of Shorts. Dynasty drafters went early and got Tavon Austin (smart move) but if you weren’t able to get him, I see Jacksonville using Ace the same way as Austin. Switch Austin and Ace in there college offenses and we’re looking at Ace being one of the top receivers taken. I see Ace as a player that is worth getting and holding on to for your dynasty team, as he has shined at wide receiver for the Jaguars and will most likely be on the field as the 2 or the 3 for Jacksonville.

Kenny Stills- Kenny is a wide receiver for the Saints, a team looking for a bounce back year with their head coach’s return. We all know that Sean Payton and the Saints love to pass the ball and Stills will produce early and often for them. Stills had a rough first game for the Saints, with one fumble and a dropped pass, but ever since Stills has had seven catches for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Stills has had three of his seven receptions go for 20 yards or more as he uses his explosive speed to get behind defensive backs. Stills will be the number three guy in New Orleans but he will be sure to produce, as he seems to already have gained the respect of Drew Brees with his physicality. Stills will go up with a defender on him and grab the ball out of the sky. Stills is in a great situation and has used it to his total advantage. If I were you, I would find a way to get him on your roster.

Markus Wheaton – Markus has come on strong this preseason for the Steelers, making them forget Mike Wallace easily. Wheaton has been very impressive this preseason, catching seven receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns. He has seemed to built chemistry with Big Ben quite well and we all know that’s a plus. Wheaton will also be the number three guy this year in Pittsburgh’s offense where he will run across the middle or run deep routes past slower defenders. Wheaton should be the number two guy next year as Emmanuel Sanders will be testing the waters in free agency. I expect Wheaton to be a valuable dynasty player this year and definitely for many years to come.

Caution:

Cordarrelle Patterson- Patterson is high on many draft boards and many dynasty owners’ hearts, but I don’t see it. Patterson is very raw at the position, where he has only played one year at a Division 1 school. He can return kicks and punts, but I don’t see him being a huge impact at wide receiver. There happens to be a guy in Minnesota named Adrian Peterson who is pretty much the offense and he has until 2018. Adrian Peterson won’t always be super-human, but he has two to three more years in the tank and that’s only going to hurt Patterson. The Vikings just signed Greg Jennings in the off season to a five year deal, and he will be there go to receiver, which will also hurt Patterson’s production.

If those things weren’t enough to scare you away, just realize that he has Christian Ponder throwing him the ball, who in two years has 49 touchdowns with 37 interceptions. Ponder in 2011 finished 30th in passing above a guy named Tebow and right below John Skelton. And in 2012 finished 25th in passing right above Mark Sanchez. Patterson’s preseason stats show the same thing with 8 receptions for 84 yards and no touchdowns. I am not seeing a real good reason to expect good things out of Patterson besides the return game.

Entire 2013 QB draft class- I am not sure if I have seen a QB draft class worse than this one. If your best option is E.J. Manuel or Geno Smith, then you have to know that these guys will not be starting for you. I do not see any of these guys making impacts for your team any time soon, if at all. The Bills are starting this year with a rookie head coach, only adding to their troubles. There is a study out there that shows when the first quarterback is taken outside of the top ten; they generally do not produce (you can read more about that here). Following this logic, Manuel will not have a good career. Geno Smith is in Circus City, USA and don’t tell me he looked good last week throwing a touchdown with 199 yards. I will see your 199 and 1 and raise you 3 interceptions? Geno has terrible field awareness and he locks onto his first target. I can’t say I see any quarterbacks in this class doing anything in the NFL, maybe Mike Glennon, but that’s a stretch. Stay away from these quarterbacks, wait till next year if you need a QB.

Montee Ball- Lets start with this season. I see Ball sharing carries with Hillman, which we all know will hurt his stats. There is a guy in Denver named Peyton Manning and watching them this preseason shows me they are going to use a hurry up offense and a lot of passing. Montee Ball has 25 carries for 80 yards, that’s 3.2 YPC average, ouch. Now lets look long term, Ball is more of a smaller back and not really the build of a starting running back. He had great numbers in his last couple years at Wisconsin but I would warn against him based on past Wisconsin running backs and their lack of NFL success. Wisconsin relies on a weak BIG 10 and their monsterous O-line to run an offense that boosts their running back production. I look at the past and I don’t see Ball being a guy that you can rely on for dynasty production.

A slight breeze in the NFL can change the fates in our favor. It can close doors and create opportunity. Make sure you are checking the weather all the time in your leagues so you can stay ahead of the trends and dominate your leagues. Happy Labor Day…

Good stuff here Joe. Love the call on the entire 2013 QB draft class..lol. Totally agree. The only one I don’t agree with is Patterson. In some cases talent is talent for me that is just Patterson. I think it will be highly unlikely that Ponder is QB-ing this squad by mid-season and while Cassel is no “prize” I do think coming from a backup position will play in his favor. MN will have a better QB throwing to that kid in no time

sixshooter

Minnesota will be much worse if they have to start Cassel at QB! Ponder is the better QB in the long run. Cassel is no good.

Dan Dynasty Football

With all due respect. Ponder is AWFUL. As someone who hasn’t missed a Vikings game in 20 years, I can tell you that while Cassel is not good either. Ponder is definitely not clearly better and MN is def not clearly better with him. He is one of the worst starting QBs in the league and is a mid-range backup to boot. Cassel had more success in one season in NE than Ponder has even sniffed. Some are just not meant to be in the lime light and I feel that’s where Cassel is. He got paid WAY to much money and the pressure got to him. He is better than he was at KC and with all due respect to KC, MN had/has better weapons to utilize. Just the fact that Cassel can throw a ball further than 20 yards is a plus. Ponder’s noodle arm is a massive liability and I will be shocked if he’s not holding the clipboard by week 8.

sixshooter

Sorry but I don’t care if you haven’t missed a game in 60 yrs, but Cassell is not a better QB! If you think MN has that much better offensive weapons besides AP, than KC then you may be mistaking. Cassel was set up in NE but still lost five more games than Brady the year prior! Cassel is not the problem in MN!
I am not a Vikings fan nor a Ponder fan and definitely not a fan of any Florida college team but am amazed at the abuse that Ponder has taken from some Vikings fans and the media but yet his teammates stand by him wholeheartedly.
Just maybe the problem is not with Ponder! I am confident there are more than a couple of teams that would love to have him! Not sure I can say the same for Cassel. Are you kiddin’ me…….Matt Cassel? I could better understand Ponder holding a clipboard by week 8 if the team had a decent rooking waiting in the wings but Matt Cassel????? Really???? Are ya kiddin’ me??? No thanks……I will take Ponder any day over Cassel!

Cassel is not the answer for the Vikings but neither is Ponder. I will be surprised if the Vikings aren’t running with someone else at QB in 2014 or at least attempting to do so.

And yes the problem IS with Ponder. He is not a good QB and is not improving which is the most telling thing of all. His upside at this point is looking very mediocre. Misses open guys all the time. Poor accuracy and average arm strength. I can understand supporting him over Cassel but I think you’re missing the boat if you think he’s a good QB. And yes they have a very good supporting cast with AP, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph and Patterson. There are no more excuses for the guy. If he can’t perform in 2013 he’s a lost cause.

sixshooter

They have added some offensive weapons this year but after Harvin went down last……they had NOTHING other than a mediocre Rudolph! Jennings was injured and not a starter for the Packers so he is “iffy” at best and Patterson has done little to turn heads thus far. Sorry but the problem is much bigger than Christian Ponder!

I could not disagree more is all I can say but thanks for sharing your opinion. Always good discussion around here. Keep it up sixshooter!

Dan Dynasty Football

Agreed. Thanks for your thoughts sixshooter

sixshooter

Yup…..most teams would be happy with 60+ completion percentage from their QB………He really has nobody but AP! And if you count a bench player from last year and an “iffy” rookie from this year…….to count on for a “core” group of receivers….well……it is asking an awful lot!!!!

I have no reason whatsoever to stand up for Ponder (other than owning him along with a couple other QB’s last year in a re-draft league) but I along with Jared Allen do believe that he is getting some undeserved criticism!

I am confident that Ponder would be a much better receiver if he had a guy like Reggie Wayne on the other end of the ball instead of Jerome Simpson. Ironically, his numbers were a tad bit better when Harvin wasn’t nursing his head!!!!!

Dan Dynasty Football

You seem to be inferring that I think Cassel is the better QB. I don’t. I didn’t mention that one time. What I said was that Cassel had more success coming in as a back up and has a MUCH MUCH stronger arm. He offers different strengths and different weaknesses all wrapped up in the same sucky package. Let me more clear. Ponder is horrid. He is the “main” issue w/the Vikings offense and the coaching staff knows it. Maybe his strengths will make the offense better… maybe his weaknesses will make it work. Idk, but I do know the coaching staff will have no problem pulling Ponder this year if he performs like he has the last two seasons and this preseason. They have a TON of weapons by any team’s standards and even if they didn’t have Jennings, Rudy, or C-Patt, they still have the only AP in the league and that should make him a decent QB right there. As Jeff mentioned he has no excuses anymore and he knows it.

Wes

*OTA’s

Chris

Lets just say the Vikings go out and sign Jay Cutler next season would you still be happy you dumped Patterson so Quickly?????