Bukele has lead in polls, but still has work to do

Recent polling by La Prensa Grafica indicates that Nayib Bukele, as a candidate for the GANA party, leads the race towards the February 2019 presidential elections in El Salvador. These are some of the first major polling results released since Bukele found his way onto the presidential ballot as the candidate of the GANA party.

Asked for whom they would vote in the presidential elections if they took place today, less than 50% responded to the pollsters. Those who answered the question, expressed the following preferences:

(The preferences are expressed by party rather than candidate, because presidential election ballots in El Salvador involve a choice among party names, not a choice among individually named candidates).

Other questions asked by pollsters give Bukele more strength, however. When asked their impression of various political figures, 58.7% said they had a good or very good impression of Bukele, while 47.2% had a good or very good impression of Carlos Calleja and only 24.8% felt that way about Hugo Martinez of the FMLN. Despite his lead, Bukele has slipped some in his favorability ratings over the past several months, partly because of nonstop attacks on him in the major media in the country and partly, I think, because of his willingness to make an alliance with GANA.

With 50% of potential voters unwilling to express their preferences, there is still much room for development of this election race. Right now, Bukele has the lead, but not much momentum. To win, he will need to move his online army to the voting centers. The other open question is whether Bukele can reach the 50% threshold to win in the first round of the elections, or will he have to compete in a second round six weeks later against his closest challenger.

Also, it's not enough to cite the positive opinions of the candidates without including the negatives. In that case, Nayib comes out way ahead (when you subtract negative from positive): Nayib Bukele 51.5%; Carlos Calleja 21.1%; Hugo Martinez, 7.4%