When Scott Walker returns Monday to campaign at the Iowa State Fair, he’ll be in an uncomfortable position, watching competitors in the crowded GOP field threaten his hold on a state he needs to win to survive.

After seven months as the clear favorite to win this first-in-the-nation caucus state, the Wisconsin governor is suddenly sinking in the polls— overtaken by the summer’s massive anti-establishment wave and at risk of losing his grip.
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“He’s lost a lot of momentum here because he didn’t convert that early momentum into committed caucus-goers. Now he’s got to re-start his engine here, and that’s not easy to do,” said Doug Gross, a GOP operative who supported Mitt Romney four years ago and has yet to commit to a candidate this cycle.

The silver lining: The race is still winnable for Walker because other top-tier candidates have yet to ignite. Jeb Bush, despite having the strongest organization in Iowa, isn’t a natural fit in a socially conservative state. Others like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both of whom hold strong appeal to social conservatives here, seem to be focusing their efforts elsewhere.