La Niña's impact on Texas could be bitterly cold winter followed by hurricane-filled summer

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Hurricane season could hit Texas hard in 2016 thanks to the swinging pendulum of global weather patterns.

In spite of a placid hurricane season, 2015 became Texas' wettest year on record thanks largely to El Niño. The phenomenon should subside through coming months, but could pass the baton to its sister, La Niña, which typically brings its own mix of severe weather to the Lone Star State.

La Niña has followed 11 of the last 15 El Niño events, the Wall Street Journal reported in December. It is marked by cool surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and a polar jet stream dipped down deep into the Central U.S.

On average, the nation's coast can expect about twice as many hurricanes in La Niña years as compared to El Niño years, wrote Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in December. Federal studies have also found a significant relationship between La Niña and heightened hurricane damages in the U.S.

That's because the global flow of temperature and moisture associated with La Niña creates ideal conditions for formation of Atlantic storms, which may or may not drift over Texas.

But aside from those potential tropical storms, La Niña typically keeps the Lone Star State warm and dry, state climatologist John Neilsen-Gammon told the Chronicle in December.

By late spring, forecasters should know whether or not the pattern will manifest. Until then, El Niño is expected to maintain its regiment of above-average rainfall for Texas and large swaths of the U.S.

The strongest El Niño on record, which lasted from 1997 to 1998, brought its most potent impacts--a nationwide spattering of severe floods and ice storms--in January and February of 1998. Forecasters are quick to note that El Niño is not beholden to a schedule, but that past events provide a rough outline of current expectations.

A two-week outlook released Sunday by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration forecast below-average temperatures in much of Texas through mid-January. The Weather Channel predicted below-average temperatures across all of Texas through March.

In Houston, temperatures are forecast between the low 40s and high 60s throughout the week, with a chance of rain on Wednesday and Thursday.