Royals, princes of Harvard among Oscar front-runners

January 28, 2011|By Michael Phillips | Movie critic

Tuesday, during the second annual Academy Award nominations panel at the Gene Siskel Film Center, Chicago Reader critic J.R. Jones observed, wittily, that the success of "The King's Speech" may have something to do with America — increasingly middle-classless America — drifting toward "an oligarchy," thereby encouraging a kind of nose-against-the-glass interest in the private lives of the royals.

The theory may also hold true for "The Social Network," a slice of more recent fictionalized history and a story of young princes of capitalism at work and play in a vaguely sinister universe peppered with wisecracks. We will see which members of the privileged classes rule the day come Feb. 27. No popcorn for me that night. I'll be eating cake.

As with any Oscar nomination list, there are sure things this year and there are two-horse races. At the last second, when asked for a "will win" among the 10 best-picture nominees Tuesday, I switched my prediction from "The King's Speech" (coming up fast on the rail!) to what was a couple of months ago the presumptive front-runner, "The Social Network." Why did I do this? If you know why I did this, let me know.

I do believe one of the sure things is "Social Network's" David Fincher winning for best director. And "Social Network" screenwriter Aaron Sorkin winning for adapted script.

Other certainties? Colin Firth, best actor, "The King's Speech." Christian Bale, best supporting actor, "The Fighter." And very likely Melissa Leo for supporting actress, also from "The Fighter." Best actress, a closer call between Natalie Portman ("Black Swan" — Hollywood loves stories about irrational devotion to fame and glory) and Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right"). Yet Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone") may emerge as a spoiler.

No such equivocations when it comes to "Toy Story 3." It has it in the bag for best animated feature. Even if it were lousy, its titanic grosses guarantee it.

Let's move on to the subject of Oscar heartbreak. "Inception" director Christopher Nolan's exclusion from the list of nominated directors rattled some cages. The shut-outs accorded "Shutter Island" and "The Ghost Writer" seem peculiar. I didn't even like "Shutter Island," but I was surprised at its complete awards invisibility, even with its early 2010 release. "Shutter Island" did what the Oscars tend to recognize most heartily: It made money. "The Ghost Writer" did not, but with supporting performances as excellent as Pierce Brosnan's and Olivia Williams', well … money isn't everything. "The Hurt Locker," last year's atypically low-grossing Oscar winner, isn't the sort of picture the Academy recognizes more than once or twice a decade.

If I ran the zoo, I'd have nominated a few people you probably don't know, including Niels Arestrup, for his dazzling turn as the Corsican mobster in "A Prophet." It would have made a swell bookend to the supporting actress nominee Jacki Weaver, so good as the crime-family godmother in "Animal Kingdom."

I'd have dropped James Franco for "127 Hours" in favor of Robert Duvall for "Get Low." I'd have skipped Jeremy Renner (nominated for his solid work in the semi-liquid crime thriller "The Town") in favor of Bill Murray, likewise for "Get Low."

Was "Tangled" snubbed in the feature animation category? In fact, yes. And honestly I preferred both the nominated "How to Train Your Dragon" and "The Illusionist" to "Toy Story 3." But the Oscar news cycle is what it is: a parlor game of "what if?" and "in my world…" I take heart from this week's re-release of the nominated Charles Ferguson documentary "Inside Job," on the heels of the news — we knew this already; the film does a strong and cogent job of explaining the morass — that the recent economic meltdown was avoidable and self-inflicted. We're stumbling all the way to the oligarchy, all right. I look forward to the day decades from now when a wizened Firth, doddering up to the presenter's podium, opens the envelope and intones "By royal decree, the Oscar goes to…"