"The track that worries me the most is Talladega," Dale Earnhardt Jr. says. / Jerry Lai US Presswire

by Nate Ryan, USA TODAY Sports

by Nate Ryan, USA TODAY Sports

He once dominated Talladega Superspeedway, notching a record four consecutive Sprint Cup victories by making deft decisions in the finicky draft and overpowering opponents with superior cars.

But entering Sunday's Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500, the longest, most treacherous track in NASCAR's premier series has become the site of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s least anticipated race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

"The (track) that worries me the most is Talladega," Earnhardt said. "It's just a lottery weekend. You can't really separate yourself from anyone else. You can't really build a car that's better. We're all in a box and all the things we do to make the cars safe there, everyone builds the same car, so you just don't know really how you're going to run there."

That's the disconcerting reality facing the dozen Chase drivers at Talladega, where restrictor plates are used to reduce airflow to the motor and harness horsepower. The resultant decrease in speeds helps limit the likelihood of cars getting airborne but also increases the propensity for large-scale wrecks.

It makes Talladega perhaps the most mentally challenging track on the circuit. It isn't so much the trepidation of being collected by the violent multicar pileups that have resulted in 3,400-pound airborne cars plowing into the catchfence and tires sailing over the walls surrounding its steep 33-degree banking.

It's the feeling of being powerless to evade such calamity.

"You want to have a positive mind-set and that glass is half-full mentality, but the reality is regardless of how good your equipment is, you can't get away from anybody," said Jimmie Johnson, who hasn't finished in three races this season at Talladega or Daytona International Speedway, the other track to feature restrictor plates. "You're at the mercy of everybody around you. That's the part that we are all so fearful of, we want to control our destiny.

"Granted things can happen on a short track or a mile-and-a-half track, but it's much more in your control. (At Talladega), it's out of your control. That's the thing that everybody doesn't like."

Though no champion has won at Talladega during the Chase (the fall race has been won by non-Chase entrants in four of the past eight years), a good finish has been integral to a title run. Chase winners have finished in the top 10 at Talladega in all but one season (Johnson's 26th in 2006).

Points leader Brad Keselowski, who is trying to become the first since Jeff Gordon in 2007 to sweep both races at Talladega, laughed when asked whether he fears or relishes NASCAR's trips to Alabama.

"Can I do both?" Keselowski asked. "I really respect the challenge that Talladega is, but I certainly loathe the lack of ability to fully determine the outcome. It's a bit of a love-hate thing."

The Penske Racing driver's average Talladega finish of 13.0 is best among active drivers, and the points leader has extended his margin at the track in the past four seasons. Keselowski, though, is "trying really hard not to overthink it" despite riding the confidence of a brilliant last-lap move to beat Kyle Busch in a May 6 victory.

"Via stats, we should be one of the favorites," he said. "But I'm not so naive as to think that things couldn't go very wrong at Talladega."

Perhaps the most optimistic of the title contenders is fourth-ranked Clint Bowyer, who has won the past two fall races at the 2.66-mile oval.

"That race can shake things up in a big way," he said. "It can propel you to the (points) lead or bury you. It's one of those races that I kind of look forward to and enjoy it, but I also know what can happen, too."

Its capricious nature might be best reflected by the results of Earnhardt, who hasn't won at Talladega in eight years and 15 races since completing a stretch of seven consecutive finishes of first or second from 2001-04.

"I think I had a lot of race car back then," he said of the Dale Earnhardt Inc. Chevrolets from that era. "There was a way with the rules to build a better, faster car and better motor, and the driver had tools in his hands to do things that other drivers couldn't, and that's not the case as much with the current package."

Earnhardt said rules changes have limited employing rear springs and shocks that provided better handling, and it's affected his strategy on trying to balance the aggression of slicing through traffic with avoiding the crashes triggered by a bobble of the wheel at 200 mph.

In last year's Chase event at Talladega, Earnhardt and Johnson rode at the rear of the pack, but the Hendrick teammates waited too long to make their charge and finished 25th and 26th.

"The racing there has changed quite a bit, and I haven't really been able to find a way to excel at it just yet, but I haven't given up," Earnhardt said. "We'll work hard. At the moment, it's just a real struggle to set yourself apart from everybody. Whether it's in the preparation of the car or on the track, it's hard not to blend into the crowd unwillingly."