This is the $64,000 question right now. If you are an online poker player in the United States and had an account at Full Tilt Poker, Pokerstars or AP/UB, then there is a good chance that you have money locked up at one (or two or three) of the sites right now.

So when will you get your money back?

Everybody has their own answer to that question right now. The fact is, everybody is just guessing. NOBODY knows when people are going to get their money back - that is the harsh truth.

You've got TV reporters stating that US players will NEVER get their money back. Those reporters are just guessing.

You've got high stakes cash game legends guaranteeing a million dollars if the sites don't pay out by a certain date. These people (Tom Dwan and Phil Galfond) are just hoping for the best - in the end, they are guessing/hoping that people will be repaid (and repaid by a certain date).

You've got people saying that the three sites will absolutely pay US players back and in a short period of time. Again, they are just guessing.

Everybody is just guessing.

My guess?

My guess is that this will end up being a Neteller type of situation, where the money is locked up for months (and maybe longer), but is eventually returned to players after some kind of a settlement between the US and Pokerstars/FTP/UB/AP.

After all, playing online poker is not illegal in the United States - the poker sites (and payment processors) are in trouble for violating the UIGEA.

In order to quell the uproar that will surely continue as funds continue to remain frozen, I think that there will be some sort of a mini-settlement that allows for PS/FTP/AP/UB to return the funds of US poker players.

This is just my opinion - I really don't think that the funds are lost forever, but again, that's just my opinion.

I hope, for everybody's sake, that the funds are returned as quickly as possible. After all, the people with frozen funds did absolutely nothing wrong, so they shouldn't be made to suffer.