Rainfall Potential Questionable; Muggy Warmup Enroute; 4th Weather; and a Different Kind of Heat Record

A different kind of heat record of note tabulated by the Buffalo NWS: In terms of Heating Degree Days, which run from July 1-June 3oth on a yearly basis, this past 2011-2012 has been the warmest year in Buffalo history (fewest heating degree days).

Another warmup arrives on Tuesday and, with minor variations, will last into Saturday morning. A shortwave should help to trigger some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon, mainly later, and during the evening. While precipitable water will be rising considerably, once this short waves passes Tuesday evening, the triggers necessary for widespread coverage will be dissipating. So, I’m not convinced these tshowers & storms will do the trick in restoring the soil moisture deficiency we have for the majority of the viewing area. As for the 4th itself, some scattered convection is again likely but–again–the trigger mechanisms don’t appear to be there to tap the high precipitable water efficiently. In any case, whatever we get on the 4th looks likely to die out in time for the fireworks that evening. It does look, though, like the day of the 4th will be Very Muggy, with dewpoints approaching 70. A little less humidity will make Thursday marginally more comfortable, but some Heat will be building on Friday as the ridge temporarily builds to the east and heights rise. Some locations will flirt with the 90 degree mark again.

A cold front will slowly sag across WNY during Saturday, with some limited opportunity for convection. By Sunday, a more NWly flow at mid-levels will bring the onset of a more comfortable pattern which should persist well into next week.

A weaker el nino is not associated with warmer winters around in here. It has to be of greater amplitude. Sled Hill, I don’t take human life lightly, but I’d stake mine on Lk Erie NOT hitting 84….that’s a bit out there in la la land. Maybe some decades further into global warming, but not now.

I’m surprised that the much deeper lake Ontario hasn’t upwelled yet. It’s currently 75 off ROC today – one degree warmer than lake Erie. Bacteria levels have been very bad so far this year, with local beaches being forced to close more days than not. It certainly doesn’t matter to me. With whatever that terribly smelly soup is rolling up on the south shore of lake Ontario in multiple locations the last couple weeks, I won’t step foot in it, even if it is determined to be clean enough on a given day. Lake Erie seems much cleaner this year, comparatively, at least at the Marina and down to Woodlawn Beach.

Even more amazing to me, in the now vs. in the future, is the 850mb temps today are forecast to be 12c. that SHOULD equate to low 70′s IF conditions were not so dry. NWS makes mention of this in the Text from this early am.

And on a quick side note, related to a previous discussion on here, you may think what you will about BUF compared to ROC, but you have to admit, this photo below – looking northeast across the Genesee River, is beautiful. There is sometimes so much bad news that comes out of our cities that we forget their beauty and the rich history and great people that led to their skylines. I took this photo yesterday while at the Corn Hill Festival.

What criteria would constitute a full-fledged drought in western New York? Who would issue that declaration?

As it is in WNY, very dry in southern Ontario. Several conservation authorities have asked residents/businesses in certain watersheds to voluntarily reduce water useage by 10 to 20 per cent. Can’t recall that before–at least in the 20 years I’ve in this part of the province.

I’m interested in knowing that as well. When I was in FL in April, most locations there were 15-20″ below normal in the precip. department. Much of the State of FL was in a drought, of course until that tropical depression parked over FL for nearly a week dropping insane amounts of rain in parts.

Drought develops over several months, not weeks. WNY wasn’t all that short with rainfall until recently (June). KBUF is currently facing a fairly significant deficit (some suburbs both North and South of the City are in even worse shape), but other parts of the area are not as bad. For example, I’m only about 20 miles away from the airport, and I’ve measured a total of 16.31″ of rain since March or so (not counting liquid from snowfall). Going by Buffalo averages, I’m still in a ~2″ deficit, but KBUF is in the hole by 4-5″. Hence while you’ll still find green lawns in Srn. Niagara, but head toward Williamsville or Clarence just South, and things are much more crispy by comparison.