As the final week of the regular season begins, attention is
going to rightfully turn to who fills the final couple spots in the
16-team field.

It's natural to notice what the likes of Drexel, Loyola, Ohio
State, Penn and Yale do in the next few days. But it's also
important to realize how those teams could get squeezed out by bid
thieves.

That would mean a surprise winner in the Big East (Georgetown or
Villanova).

Or an anybody-but-Penn State winner in the Colonial.

Or maybe Fairfield in the ECAC.

Those sorts of outcomes are every bit a part of the equation as
well.

One other note: After reviewing a file with last year's final
nitty-gritty page used by the selection committee, the
strength of schedule column in each team's profile is an average of
the rankings of the top 10 opponents in the RPI (example: Notre
Dame is worth 1 point since it is first in the RPI). That changes
things a bit, but it's sort of pointless to go through this
exercise by using information the selection committee won't
utilize.

RPI data, as always, is courtesy of LaxPower. The top 10 opponents'
average RPI is independently calculated.

Here's this week's rundown, with the record, RPI, top 10
opponents' average RPI, records against the top five, 10 and 20 and
a list of top-20 wins for each team.

In Via Automatic Bid (1)

LEHIGH (PATRIOT)

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

12-4

14

15th (16.7)

1-1

3-1

3-2

5-vs. Penn State, 8-@Bucknell
8-Bucknell

The Mountain Hawks are back in the tournament for the second
consecutive year after drubbing Colgate and Bucknell at home to win the
Patriot League tournament. Lehigh won't get a home
game this time around, but no one will be pleased to have to
contend with its effective defense. A few logical first-round
destinations: Cornell, Maryland, Syracuse or perhaps even a rematch
with Penn State. Loyola, if it won the ECAC, would also be in
play.

This week: Regular season complete

Projected Automatic Bids (7)

DENVER (ECAC)

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

11-3

2

6th (13.6)

0-2

2-2

5-2

9-@Loyola, 10-@Ohio State,
11-@Duke, 12-Penn
14-Lehigh

The Pioneers handled Michigan to close out the regular season and
clinch the top seed in the ECAC tournament. There's still a chance
they snag the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, but the
season's final week won't change much for Denver. The Pios are
easily in the field and will host a first-round game regardless of
the outcome of their conference tournament.

The Big Red throttled Princeton at the Meadowlands, and now get
the Tigers again at home in the Ivy League tournament. Cornell's
schedule strength and absence of a top-10 win might affect its
seeding, but this is still a team likely to host a first-round game
at this stage.

This week: Princeton (Friday); possibly Penn or Yale
(Sunday)

Tournament Probabilities

LaxPower.com founder Larry Feldman has developed formulas, based
on historical data, to determine teams' chances of making NCAA
tournaments across all levels: Division I, II and III men and
women.

There's no arguing with the Nittany Lions' profile --- great RPI,
strong schedule, a couple top-10 victories. While Penn State is
playing for seeding in this week's CAA tournament, other teams
nationally will certainly be rooting for the Nits. If anyone knocks
off Penn State, it means a bid thief will wrangle its way into the
16-team NCAA field.

The Orange's previous five games were decided by five goals, so of
course they pummeled Notre Dame 10-4 on Saturday. There will be no
anxiety about postseason inclusion for John Desko's team, but it
can improve its seeding some more with another defeat of Notre Dame
on Thursday.

If the Great Danes had any hope of an at-large bid, it probably
fizzled with a midweek loss to Siena when they played without two
of their three Thompsons. All three were on the field for
Saturday's rout of Stony Brook, and a rematch looms this week in
the America East semifinals. Albany averaged 20.7 goals in its
games against the other teams in its league tournament, and it is
the heavy favorite to emerge with an automatic bid.

The Red Foxes are the top seed in the Metro Atlantic tournament,
which will be played in Buffalo, N.Y. The other teams in the field
are Jacksonville (RPI: 34), Siena (36) and Detroit (58), and only
the winner will reach the NCAA tournament.

The Bulldogs earned the right to host the NEC tournament, which
will also feature Robert Morris (RPI: 42), Quinnipiac (51) and
Sacred Heart (56). Whatever comes of next weekend, whoever wins
will make their first Division I NCAA tournament appearance.

Saturday's 10-4 loss to Syracuse offered a reminder Notre Dame is
not a sure thing on offense, but its overall profile remains
impeccable. The Fighting Irish owns five victories over likely
postseason teams, and can pick up a sixth in Thursday's rematch
with Syracuse. Despite the stumble, Notre Dame still possesses the
best overall resume in the country.

The Tar Heels won their first ACC tournament since
1996, and it might be enough to snag them the No. 1
overall seed in May. They'll probably need help to hop over Notre
Dame at this point, but this past weekend demonstrated just how
dangerous North Carolina could be in the postseason. It's difficult
to imagine the Tar Heels landing anything less than a No. 4
seed.

This week: Regular season complete

MARYLAND

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

9-3

7

19th (17.9)

0-1

1-1

4-3

9-@Loyola, 11-@Duke
13-Yale, 20-@Virginia

The suddenly silent Terrapins have scored just 18 goals over their
last three games, but aren't in any danger of missing the
postseason. They are, though, at risk of fumbling away a home
first-round game with yet another loss to Colgate. That's not what
anyone expected when Maryland was 8-1 just a few weeks ago.

This week: Colgate (Saturday)

BUCKNELL

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

12-4

8

20th (18.0)

1-1

1-1

3-3

4-@Cornell, 15-Drexel
16-@Albany

The Bison will likely gobble up an at-large bid after falling to
Lehigh for the second time in Sunday's Patriot League final. That
defeat does more to damage teams like Drexel, Penn and Yale than it
does Bucknell, which possesses a profile likely to snag it just the
third NCAA tournament bid in school history (2001 and 2011 were the
others).

This week: Regular season complete

LOYOLA

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

11-3

9

16th (16.8)

0-1

1-2

2-3

10-@Ohio State, 17-@Hopkins

The Greyhounds ended a 13-game losing streak to Johns Hopkins, in
the process creating some separation between themselves and a
fading at-large possibility. The defending national champions don't
have an overwhelming profile, but they'll probably be fine if they
win their ECAC tournament opener. A home first-round game has to
still be in play if Loyola wins the event up at Hobart.

What an interesting team the Buckeyes have become, with a victory
over Penn State that continues to add value to a conference
tournament that provides a chance to enhance an already commendable
schedule strength. Barring chaos elsewhere, a victory over Loyola
probably does the job for Ohio State. Even without upsets in other
league, the Buckeyes might wind up OK regardless of how they do
this week in the ECAC tournament.

Could the Blue Devils get shipped on the road in the first round?
It's plausible, especially since the trip to Marquette this weekend
isn't going to be an RPI helper (but it won't cause too much of a
dip, either). Maybe the better question is how long will Duke last
in the postseason, a valid question after yielding 16 goals to
Virginia and 18 to North Carolina in two of its last three
games.

This week: at Marquette (Sunday)

PENN

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

8-4

12

11th (14.8)

0-2

0-2

3-3

11-Duke, 14-@Lehigh
18-Princeton

The Quakers' profile continues to grow less and less impressive,
and they might turn out to be the biggest losers from Duke's
rock-'em-sock-'em ACC tournament loss to North Carolina. The
computer numbers are good, but Penn would be advised to avenge an
earlier loss to Yale if it wants to return to the NCAAs after a
one-year hiatus. For now, modest advantages in RPI and schedule
strength combined with a deeper set of victories would probably
offset the head-to-head setback against the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs find themselves in what might turn out to be an NCAA
play-out game in the Ivy League tournament against Penn; the winner
probably solidifies its position barring zaniness elsewhere, while
the loser is going to have a difficult argument for inclusion. Yale
has a decent resume, but nothing on it will absolutely wow anyone.
A sweep of Penn would certainly make it difficult to argue Penn (a
team with a similar profile) belongs in over Yale.

This week: vs. Penn (Friday); possibly Cornell or Princeton
(Sunday)

DREXEL

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

11-3

15

31st (21.2)

0-1

0-2

1-3

16-Albany

This resume, plus a CAA tournament split, just isn't going to get
it done for the Dragons even if there aren't upsets in other
conferences. Ultimately, Drexel is going to need to win twice in
three days up at Penn State if it is to make its first NCAA
appearance.

That might just about do it for Hopkins, which feebly scored only one goal in the second half of its 8-4
loss to Loyola. The Blue Jays' regular-season finale
isn't going to do them much good, and they head into the final week
of the regular season with one victory over a team more than a game
over .500 (Maryland). The 41-year NCAA streak appears set to end at
Homewood, another sign of lacrosse's changing landscape.

This week: at Army (Friday)

ST. JOHN'S

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

9-4

19

45th (25.7)

1-0

1-1

2-1

1-Notre Dame, 13-@Yale

The Red Storm didn't qualify for their conference tournament,
though that didn't stop the likes of 2004 Army and 2010 Hofstra
from earning bids. The biggest problem here is the schedule
strength, and losses to sub-.500 Georgetown, Stony Brook and
Villanova certainly don't help. St. John's made some more progress
this season, but an NCAA bid will have to wait at least another
year.

This week: Regular season complete

PRINCETON

W-L

RPI

T10 OPP. AVG RPI

T5

T10

T20

T20 wins

8-5

20

4th (12.9)

0-2

0-3

2-4

13-Yale, 17-@Hopkins

Realistically, it's Ivy League title or bust for the Tigers, who
will have five days to figure out how to stop a Cornell team that
just dropped 17 goals on them Saturday.

This week: at Cornell (Friday); vs. Penn or Yale
(Sunday)

Projected Bracket

As a reminder, the projected bracket attempts to follow the
NCAA's preference to limit flights/travel costs in the opening
round. It also reflects that only the top eight spots in the field
are seeded, with geography playing a role in sorting out several of
the other matchups in the bracket.