Event risk steps up a gear in the coming week. The
Independence Referendum in Scotland (Thurs.) dominates what is otherwise also a
busy week for domestic data. Internationally, the focus will primarily be on
the US FOMC meeting (Weds.) and a key ECB liquidity operation (Thurs.). Both of
these also have the potential to be big market movers.

Scotland’s
Independence Referendum... Remaining polls will be scrutinised
intensely, as market participants seek final guidance on how the result is
likely to break. Over the past week the swings in the polls have put
sterling under significant pressure. A further escalation in uncertainty either
ahead of, or in the wake of, the result would risk adding to volatility.
Polling stations are scheduled to close at 10pm on Thursday, with the results
of the 32 local authority areas reported overnight. Depending on how close the
result is, an indication of the outcome may be available in the early hours of
Friday, although an official declaration is not expected until later in the
day.

UK
data to play second fiddle... Ordinarily, the upcoming domestic
economic data could be expected to prompt a sizeable market reaction. Given the
referendum, however, they are likely to have less impact than usual.
Still, in the event of a no vote attention is likely to return quickly to the
economic data for clues on the policy outlook. On the dovish side, we
expect CPI inflation to have fallen back again in August. But balanced against
this, wage growth and retail sales are both forecast to have picked up, and the
unemployment rate is predicted to have dropped further. Furthermore, the
minutes of the September MPC meeting are likely to show that the two MPC
members (Weale and McCafferty) who dissented in favour of an immediate rate
rise in August did so again this month (see back page for more details of our
UK data forecasts).

Fed
change of language?... Elsewhere, the US FOMC meeting (Weds.)
provides the main international focus. Following recent comments from Fed
members, and broadly positive economic data, we believe there is a good chance
the FOMC will shift its language on forward guidance before its asset purchases
end next month. Currently, the Fed adopts a time-dependent guidance that states
the current level of interest rates will be maintained "for a considerable
time after the asset purchase programme ends". It is increasingly clear,
however, that this is causing divisions. As a result, we expect the Committee
to move from time to purely data- dependent guidance. If so, expect the US
dollar to appreciate further and US government bond yields to rise, especially
at the short end of the curve. (see FOMC Preview, 12 September 2014).

Will
TLTRO take-up disappoint?... Market attention will also be on the
first tranche of the ECB’s Targeted LTRO programme (Thurs.), with the
second to follow in December. Despite the additional measures announced in
early September, the TLTRO remains a key part of the ECB’s plan for stimulating
the euro area economy. In all, up to €400bn of extra liquidity is set to
be offered to banks this year through this channel. The expectation is that the
first tranche will be around €175-225bn. Anything below €150bn is likely to be
viewed with disappointment by markets.

Finally...
While the above events look set to dominate, upcoming international data will also
be watched. In the US, industrial production, housing market and CPI/PPI
inflation data due. Overall, we expect these to paint a picture of ongoing
economic recovery within the context of limited price pressures. In the euro
area, the German September ZEW survey (Tues.) is predicted to fall for the
ninth consecutive month. The final estimate of August euro area CPI inflation
is forecast to be unchanged at 0.3%.

DIsclaimer

This document, its
contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does
not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe
for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This
Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with
any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to
form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication
is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research
recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own
independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax
or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this
Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such
enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This
Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds.
This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted,
stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form,
by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is
provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be
referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to
any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and
Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable
care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or
presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy,
reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

This material has
been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland,
their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any
consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no
circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to
offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive
information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have
received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland
Relationship Manager for clarification.

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market NewsForex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
here.

Forex NewsReal-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Are you
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.