Daily, some news or articles which paint a gloomy picture of what might happen in the future are published in newspapers. It is hard to imagine a world without oil, though already a limited amount of oil is left in the ground. In other words it is scarce and if it is being used like as it is today then the days will not be far away when we will have no oil left. The world’s oil took millions of years to form – we may use it all in little over a century!

However, it is not just oil that is scarce, but all domestic goods are forcing people to live in hand to mouth condition. Some wives feel their “basket of goods” is difficult to fill as it used to be with same budget.

Recently, two world business giants in the insurance and the auto industries were on the verge of closure. More or less every day in news we see (reports of) in the news, a terrifying number of layoffs or redundancies of dedicated employees in international organizations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the world's central organization for international monetary cooperation. It is an organization in which almost all countries of the world work together to promote the common good, but in this era it’s difficult to see its major positive role to improve world economy.

A NEW ECONOMIC ORDER

Even before the most depressing events affecting financial institutions in 2008, forecasters agreed that global economic growth would slow in 2009-1210. Some developed economies may enter the new year in recession; and even the fastest-growing emerging markets are likely to see slower growth than in the recent, astonishing, past.In time, we will understand much better the link between sophisticated financial markets and the physical world of goods manufactured and sold. We should bear in mind that, looked at from inside at G8 economy, a gloomy outlook seems prudent, if not inescapable. But the world is not just the G8, the developments outside this most advanced group may come to the rescue of us all.

At root, the subprime crisis originated in the United States from excess credit extended against insufficient security to those least capable of servicing, let alone repaying, the loans. Yet many families in the developing economies aspire just to have a roof over their heads; ownership is a distant dream. This is something to bear in mind when we ponder the human cost of the credit crunch.

It may also explain why so far the slowdown in the G8 has not had an equal effect in pulling down the fastest-growing economies. The near double-digit growth rates from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and other developing economies have been one of the most transformational economic trends of the past few years. From the perspective of the steel industry demand from these countries, and in particular from China, has been one of the main factors behind the industry’s resurgence.

Catching up with the leaders

Today there is a substantial difference in the rate of growth between the developed world and the emerging markets and this is set to continue. This “growth-rate gap” will impel the BRICS and their smaller counterparts to catch up with the G8 countries, even if the wealth gaps within and between nations are huge and likely to remain so.

We are witnessing the emergence of a new economic order, one in which the great economic powers such as the United States will continue to wield considerable influence but where new economies such as China will have an ever-growing weight. For example, the UN predicts that in ten years half the population of China will live in cities-a momentous change.

The process of economic globalisation has been under way for some time. It has brought great benefits to many millions of people in the developing world, with ndustrialisation that encompasses more than 1.5 biliion people.

The developed world should be thankful for this trend. As consumers in the advanced economies retrench from unsustainable levels-American consumer spending alone accounts for 21% of global GDP-shoppers in the BRICS will take up the slack.

But there are also concerns, the critical one being to what extent this economic power will manifest itself as political power-a process that history suggests inevitable.So perhaps the more pertinent question is: how will these countries exercise this power? Will they want better terms in deals over climate change, for instance? Or will they keep an increasing portion of the world’s natural resources for themselves?

We are optimistic and believe that as the world’s economy becomes more interdependant, we will see better collaboration. We must hope that the developed economies will become more generous with their intellectual property and financial resources; and, in return, the emerging economies will supply not just their raw materials and cheaper workers, but more importantly their sheer human vitality and inventiveness. We don’t have to travel far to see as this is already happening.

In 2009-2010 we may not have the absolute answer to the fundamental question of how the new map of economic power will be drawn. But the question is the most important of this relatively new century. We are living through a pivotal time in establishing a new economic order. What matters is that globalisation has started and in my view it cannot-and indeed should not-be stopped.