MLBPipeline.com though has a fully updated Nats system top 30, including the 2017 draft prospects, and the list is kind of telling. Lets dive into it, looking at some of the new guys, the guys who are off the list, the movers and the fallers.

The Top 4 hasn’t changed: Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Erick Fedde and Carter Kieboom remain our top 4 prospects, as they have been ever since we parted ways with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez (more on them later). Now, whether this will still be the case in a week’s time, when the trade deadline has passed, remains to be seen. Robles remains the #1 guy, the guy who I think the team is looking at to have a “passing of the torch” moment once Bryce Harper departs town, and remains an incredible bargain in terms of bonus-dollars-versus-prospect status ($225k bonus in 2014). Soto has streaked up the ranks: prior to the beginning of the 2016 season he wasn’t even in the top 30 lists; now he’s pushing Robles at the top.

Six of our Top 30 are 2017 draftees: This was the point that surprised me, looking at the list. MLB’s #5, 6, 16, 19, 22 and 24th ranked players have played for about a month now in our low minors. #5 and #6 (the ones that are somewhat meaningful) are of course our top two drafted arms Seth Romero and Wil Crowe. The reason there’s so much room for adding new draftees though is…

We’ve lost a TON of prospects in the last 12 months: Just looking at my master list, here’s the departures from prospect lists lately:

Graduated: Grace, Glover, Cole, Goodwin this year, Turner last year

Traded: Neuse, Luzardo this year, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Hearn, Schrock, Avila last year or last off-season. Dunning in particular was in our system so shortly that he never made it to a ranking list.

That’s 13 guys, some of whom were pretty prominently ranked and all of whom were mentioned here or there on various lists.

Now, how about the guys that are left? Here’s some guys who are really shooting up, rankings wise (and yes, some of their rise is due to the surgical removal of so many guys above them … nonetheless, these guys have all played well):

Juan Soto: as mentioned above; MLB has him #2 now. A year ago he was in the 15-17 range, and prior to 2016 season he was a nobody, outside the top 30.

Yasel Antuna: our big-money 2016 IFA signing is not disappointing; he had no playing time this time last year and was ranked in the 19-25 range just based on his bonus. Now? He’s hitting .300 as a 17-yr old in the GCL with nearly a .40o OBP (as of this writing).

Daniel Johnson: recently promoted and it was well earned: Johnson hit 17 homers in the first half in Hagerstown (not an easy place to hit for power), made the all-star team, and got promoted. MLB.com has him 10th right now; they had him #29th in April.

Blake Perkins: It looks like he’s finally getting the hang of switch hitting, and his OPS in Low-A is 200 points higher than it was last year. He has generally been in the 16-20 range of prospects; now he’s at #11.

McKenzie Mills: the lefty Low-A starter has exploded this year; he sits at 12-2 with more than a K/inning for Hagerstown, made the All-Star team and seems ready for a promotion. MLB has him at #18 in our system; he’s never even been an honorable mention before.

Raudy Read: he’s stepped it up a bit, hitting for some power and holding his slash line to respectable levels as a 23-yr old in AA (and on the 40-man roster).

Taylor Gushue: also a 23-yr old catcher, with an OPS above .820 one level below Read in High-A. Never before ranked (at least for us), MLB.com has him 25th now. I could see these two catchers pushing each other and pushing the likes of Severino and Lobaton off the 40-man.

And here’s some guys whose prospect value has taken a nosedive this year:

Pedro Severino: speaking of catcher depth; Severino has seen his stats take a nose dive as he repeats AAA; his 1.048 OPS figure for the Nats last September seems like a mirage. He’s still on the 40-man, and his reputation is more about his defense than his offense, but that’s still just a backup catcher ceiling.

Drew Ward: Year after year, Ward’s prospect value drops. He used to be top 10; now he’s fallen to the 20-range. He’s repeating AA and hitting just .224; he’ll be rule-5 eligible this coming off-season but I can’t see saving him with a roster spot right now. If he doesn’t turn it around, he’ll end up in org-guy territory soon.

Austin Voth: perhaps the most curious of our falling prospects. He was in the 6-7 range just a year and a half ago, then finished a full strong season in AAA. 2017? He’s struggled, gotten demoted, and struggled further.

Jakson Reetz: he’s now pushed down to 26th, after routinely hanging out in the 10-15 range after being such a high draft pick. He’s basically been socially promoted by virtue of his bonus figure, having never hit above .230 outside of complex ball. He’s now backing up a guy in Gushue who’s 2 years older, but also has an OPS that’s 200 points better.

Anderson Franco: what happened here? He was solid in rookie ball … and barely at the mendoza line in full season ball. Another guy routinely given top 10 rankings early on; he’s now just hanging on ranked #27 by MLB.

Osvaldo Abreu: he’s moved up a level a year, now playing in AA, but his numbers have had corresponding declines with each promotion. He wasn’t ever considered a major prospect, but now he’s barely considered a minor one.

Telmito Agustin: he couldn’t hack it in High-A and was demoted back to Low-A this year. He’s only 20, so he has time, but he’s basically out of the prospect discussions for now.

Nick Banks & Rhett Wisemann: both big-time college program upper-end draft picks, both scuffling professionally. Neither now ranked by MLB whereas both had cracks at the top 10 of our prospect lists at some point.

Joan Baez: you can’t teach velocity right? Well for Potomac this year Baez had more walks than Ks … and more walks than innings pitched. He’s now a 22-yr old in GCL beating up on a bunch of kids, hoping to get his mojo back.

Matt Skole: he’s still a “prospect” remember? He’s 27, hitting .235 in AAA, and has yet to be called up even though the team is so short on hitters that they called up Severino this past week. I put Skole in here just to see if MartyC is still reading.

And now for some predictions related to our prospects:

Fedde is getting called up and soon, and will exhaust his rookie eligibility before the season is over. The team can’t let Edwin Jackson post 5+ ERAs like he’s been doing for the last few seasons.

Robles, Soto, Kieboom stay put to keep our top 4 in tact at the trade deadline.

I can see the team cashing in some lesser prospects in trade though, perhaps guys ranked in the 8-15 range. Selling high on Daniel Johnson perhaps, or flipping some C depth from Severino, Read, Gushue, Kieboom.

#1 prospect next year: still Robles; he’s not debuting until at least the super-2 deadline next year.

# prospect once Robles graduates: It’ll be Soto. For reasons explained in the next bullet point…

How quickly will Romero get to the Majors? Pretty quickly. I could see him ending next year in AA, then pushing for a spot in the 2019 staff. He won’t be in the minors long enough to get ranked above Soto. That is unless he turns out to continue his knuckle-headedness… at which point we’ll all write many comments about how we “told you so” for drafting him.

Did I miss anyone?

PS: fun trivia; there have only been eleven (11) different players to hold the title as “#1 Washington Nationals prospect” since Nov 2004. I’ll bet you can’t name them all.

Every year I say i’ll stay away from the Mock Draft links … and every year I come back. Here’s a running collection; i’ve listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #25 (if they project out that far). Honestly, projecting even the top 5 has been folly in year’s past; last minute changes occur all the time and drastically change the top of every draft. Look no further than the 2011 draft that netted the Nats presumed top pick Anthony Rendon.

I’ll continue to add in mocks as they get published post-posting up until the draft.

However this year you’ll notice that the same general collection of names are listed in nearly every top 5 collection. Here’s a quick summary of those top-5 guys.

Collegiate top-5 names:

Brendan McCay: 1b/lhp Louisville. All-American as a Soph. 2016 Collegiate National team. Good two-way player likely being drafted as a pitcher.

Alex Faedo: rhp Florida. 2016 Collegiate National team; #1 starter from Florida, less known for developing pitchers but who did have two 1st round arms drafted just last year (A.J. Puk, Dane Dunning).

Jeren Kendall OF Vanderbilt. 2016 Collegiate National team; was presumptive 1-1 before really struggling at the plate in 2017, opening the door for one of the above college arms likely going 1-1.

J.B. Bukauskas rhp UNC via Ashburn, VA. 2016 Collegiate National team, fantastic numbers leading UNC to its first national seed in a while. Considered undersized (he’s 6’0″) but has a big arm; widely projected at #6 to Oakland but does get some top-5 press.

Tristan Beck rhp Stanford who did not play in 2017 due to injury but was a pre-season all-american; some thought he may get picked as an injury stash like we’re seeing more and more.

Adam Haseley, 1B/rhp from UVA who has massively improved his draft stock this year. He went from being just a good player to being mentioned in the top 5 in some mocks. I don’t think he goes top-5, but he’s gone before the top-10 is done.

Prep top-5 names:

Hunter Greene: ss/rhp Notre Dame High, CA (UCLA commit). 2015 18U team as a Jr., Standout at PG Nationals 2016. Two-way talent, 95-97 on the mound but also a fantastic hitter. 18U National team trials. Area code star. Likely getting drafted as an arm, might be the first prep RH starter to go 1-1. Stopped pitching mid-way through the spring though, presumably to save his arm for his first pro season.

Shane Baz, rhp from Concordia HS, TX (TCU): fast mover, mid-90s big righty in the same prep construction from the Houston area as the likes of Josh Beckett, Jamison Taillon and Tyler Kolek. I don’t think he’s a top-5 pick but should be top-10.

Here’s the Mock draft collection that i’ve saved over the past months. If you know of one I’m missing, let me know and I’ll add it in.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2017 Mock Draft v4.0 6/9/17: Wright, Greene, Gore, McKay, Lewis. Nats on Clarke Schmidt, a good RH starter from South Carolina who had to have TJ surgery (sound familiar?). However, in his mock this leaves Houck, Pearson and Carlson on the board, and I think the Nats would take any of those three ahead of TJ guy.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2017 Mock Draft v5.0 6/12/17: McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis, Hiura. Wow. Nats taking Seth Romero, a LH starter who was just kicked off of UHouston’s team, his 3rd “strike” with the team. Sounds like a winner to me and I hope the Nats are not foolish enough to take a 3-time suspended college player. Problem is, he’s a Scott Boras client, and people are worried that Boras is talking to the ownership again…

D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere) 2017 Mock Draft v2.0 dated 6/9/17: Wright, Greene, Lewis, McKay, Gore. Nats taking Romero. Problem with this mock: the next 3 after Romero are Carlson, Peterson and Lange, and I’d have to think the Nats would take any of those three over Romero.

HeroSports.com (Chris Crawford) 2017 Mock Draft v4.0 dated 5/12/17: McKay, Greene, Wright, Bukauskas, Beck. Nats taking Jordon Adell, a prep OF from Kentucky who entered the year projected near the top of the draft but whose stock has fallen precipitously. I could see the Nats having him ranked high and (much like what happened with Lucas Giolito) them taking the chance if Adell is still available after being a top-5 rumored guy entering the 2017 season.

PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) 2017 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 5/10/17: Greene, Wright, Lewis, McKay, Beck. Nats taking Hans Crouse, a prep RH starter from California. Crouse is good, but I can’t see the team taking a prep 1st rounder if the likes of Houck and Lange are on the board.

SI.com (Jay Jaffe) Mock Draft v2.0 dated 6/12/17: Wright, Greene, Gore, McKay, Lewis. Nats again on Romero. This mock leaves Pearson, Houck, and Carlson on the board, which I have a hard time believing would happen (that the Nats would take head case Romero over any of those three).

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock Draft Final dated 6/12/17: Greene, Wright, Gore, Lewis, Adell. Nats on Griffith Canning, UCLA’s friday starter who projects as a slight framed #3 starter. I saw him in the CWS regionals and wasn’t terribly impressed. Chase’s final mock is kind of out there; he’s the only guy who has Greene 1-1 and he has a ton of guys normally being projected to the Nats very early.

TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) Mock Draft v1.0 6/7/17: Wright, McKay, Greene, Lewis, Gore. Nats taking Sam Carlson, a prep RHP from Minnesota who is highly ranked on every board that I see, but has some risk being a skinny RHP from a cold-weather state whose entire profile is based on his showcase results. I’d guess the Nats would prefer a college arm.

I think the risk-averse Twins will go with a solid college arm at #1, picking Wright. This lets the rebuilding Reds at #2 take the guy who is probably the best player in the draft in Greene, who might just be the next Dwight Gooden. At #3 San Diego can afford to take a prep kid since they too are rebuilding, taking Lewis. At #4, Tampa takes the solid, fast moving McKay and internally debates whether to put him on the mound or in the field. At #5, Atlanta can’t help themselves (they love taking local guys) and takes the North Carolina prep product Gore, who might be the 2nd best player in this draft. Oakland passes on Bukauskas thanks to his two late season iffy outings and goes with the next best collegiate arm on their board.

My top 5: Wright, Greene, Lewis, McKay, Gore.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results (added after the draft): Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay, Wright. Reportedly McKay wouldn’t take an under-slot deal at 1-1, so Minnesota popped Lewis instead, allowing McKay to go 4th to Tampa where he still probably sets a bonus record. Lewis going 1-1 shakes up the order of the top 5, but not the top 5 themselves.

Who are the Nats going to take at #25:

I like the projections for a solid college arm, so if Houck or Lange is there, look for that as the pick. I could be talked into Schmidt as another TJ reclamation project. If a highly regarded prep falls (Adell, Hall, Crouse, and especially Carlson) look for that as a longer-term play pick. Notice not one projector puts them on a bat, so the talk of MSU’s Brent Rooker seems unlikely here. I think they’re set on a polished college arm to quickly move up and start to fill holes that will soon be left when the likes of Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez hit free agency.