Thursday, June 16, 2016

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?Ipsos-Mori, telephone poll :Remain 47% (-10)Leave 53% (+10)Survation, telephone poll :Remain 42% (-2)Leave 45% (+7)

The people of the UK wanted a say on the EU (have done for years), the tories put it in their manifesto, got elected, and now they are holding a referendum. So, the Prime Minister's side may lose and he will probably have to resign. Big deal. In 50 years or 100 years, people will just remember that Cameron was the PM when Britain left the EU - a positive legacy, I predict.

Also, tory unity will be restored post brexit (nothing left to fight over).

Sorry to have to burst your westminster bubble of ignorance but the incompetent fop Cameron only put it in his manifesto because he was terrified of his own Eurosceptics who ignored Cameron's three line whip AGAINST an EU referendum.

And lest you seek false comfort in the remain vote you and the other Cameroons are desperate to get, doesn't matter for Cameron and Osborne. As James says, they're done and reaching the end of the road.

The clue was in the complete lack of authority they now have in the tory party and the utter contempt eurosceptics treat them with.

Osborne's hilariously stupid Brexit Budget Bluff was immediately called by more than enough tory MPs to now make him a lame duck Chancellor completely at the whims of Eurosceptic tories who are somewhat unlikely to treat a loss with calm equanimity.

Meanwhile Cameron having a photoshoot with Clarkson for remain is as unspoofable as Geldof and Farage pissing about in boats on the Thames.

No wonder this referendum is a chaotic shambles with those two idiots running things.

For that matter the tory right's idea of electable is amusingly at odds with the public's if they think Boris or Gove are voter friendly material or any different to IDS when it comes to being completely incompetent when asked to lead a party.

As for Brexit bringing unity, do you expect all those tory Remain MP's and the entire tory establishment to just quit and form another party? Because they are hardly all going to change their minds or sit sulking on the back benches like Heath and Clarke. There's far too many of them for that and they are too well funded by the City to just roll over and play nice. Ask the Blairites what happens next in that scenario.

Face the facts, the only absolute certainty right now is tory chaos after the result.

On top of that is indeed the unending Labour chaos as the Blairites endlessly run around like headless chickens frantically looking for anyone but Corbyn.

Chaos is what was predicted for this shambolic and incompetent tory term at westminster and chaos is exactly what has happened.

In 50 years or 100 years, people will just remember that Cameron was the PM when Britain left the EU - a positive legacy, I predict.

Also, tory unity will be restored post brexit (nothing left to fight over).

Aldo, you sound very sure about how it's all going to go for someone who, a week or two back, said that there was absolutely no way that Leave would win. Maybe it's time to get out of the prophecy business.

If there is a Leave vote , the political situation inside the UK is going to be very fluid and fast moving. I think Cameron will have to resign , and the only honourable thing to do would be to call an immediate British General Election. Hopefully enough MPs will support such a call so that a vote in the H of C does allow a GE. I don't see morally how the Conservatives could go on to 2020 given that they are split 50/50 on Europe. In such a GE , the SNP should offer to support a Labour Government in return for Full Fiscal Autonomy within the UK . It should also state that in the event that Labour do not agree to that , that if the SNP win a majority of seats in Scotland at such a GE , it will hold a referendum on FFA immediately . In the event that is won , but refused by Westminster , the SNP should further state that it will then hold another referendum on Independence. It will be apparent then to the FFA'ers in Scotland that Westminster will never agree to FFA or a Federal UK ; and I believe that at that stage , a majority will vote for Independence . This should have been the SNP strategy at the last GE and at the last Scottish Parliament Election.

FFA and independence are both economic suicide. Besides, the Scots may grow to like the post-brexit arrangement. No one knows quite what it will be like. But if it turns out ok or there is an improvement in our standard of government and quality of life then the Scots will soon forget all about the EU.

Well obviously , I don't agree with you Aldo. It is important that Scotland stands on it's own two feet , and is not dependent on anyone . She is perfectly capable of doing so . That said , I respect your right to believe in a 'British ' identity ; you are not alone!

The economic problem for the UK , is that it is too big , and not able to respond quickly or flexibly to the rapidly changing economic tides around it ; whether inor out of the EU . It doesn't have a manufacturing base to speak of and has a enormous balance of trade deficit. Scotland on the other hand is small enough to change tack ; and is blessed with an embarrassment of natural resource and a balance of trade surplus. She would survive on her own , whether in or out of the EU. In the event the UK Brexits , if Scotland is still tied to Britannia's apron strings , we are likely to be taken down with a sinking UK , to Davey Jones Locker! ��

No matter what way the vote goes, this is going to be the biggest shake-down in UK politics imaginable.Cameroon is surely history. Osborne cannot succeed as PM. The Tories will be split for a generation. Corbyn will carry even more dislike from the "modernisers", in a Party split on policy, ideology, at Westminster and in the country.The SNP, united and with a vision,, have a great opportunity.

I don't normally agree with Aldo, in fact I think his politics stink. However,reading your comment shows that tact, decorum good taste and common sense don't form part of your makeup. No wonder you chose to remain anonymous.----Hootsman

Aldo, why on earth would the next referendum be lost?Sturgeon will choose the timing. The question will choose itself. Westminster will be in chaos for years to come, self obsessed even more than usual. Led by Boris Trump?It may be there will be an offer from a German led EU to Scotland---there will be a price the UK has to pay for walking away----but Scotland will have control of its own destiny.

He said that most Scots are socially conservative. Get you facts right. Try to get your spelling right too. If you try a bit harder on these fronts you might in the end construct an argument of some kind instead just spouting bile.

What happens now depends on how committed those in Scotland and the UK are to voting, the level of postal voting from both sides and the weather in various regions. A higher turnout from Scotland and a strong vote for Remain could still combine to prevent a Brexit, at least not immediately.

James, a simple question. Why do you continue to allow ‘Glasgow Working Class 2’ to comment on your site? Is it because you feel you are upholding a liberal idea about free speech? He, if it is a ‘he’, hides behind a made up username. I am not in principle against anonymous usernames, but it seems unlikely that he needs to use one to protect himself from, say, persecution by an employer. And he is obviously not some shy, sensitive person who might have something interesting to say, but lacks the confidence to put up with possible rejection. It seems more likely that he uses one because he does not want to face up to possible employers, colleagues, friends, family or neighbours finding out that he is the type of person who makes these almost misanthropic comments.

Clearly he has issues, which his monotonous and unjustifiable use of the term ‘nat si/s’ bears out. He contributes almost nothing of value and seems intent on drawing attention to himself by making provocative comments just for the sake of it. Yet you allow him to continue to comment. There must be some regular visitors to your site who stop reading the comments and leave your article whenever they see his name.

I am almost wholly in favour a liberal outlook which supports free speech even if it causes great offence. But I wonder if you allow too much. Your acceptance of his comments reminds of my time as a teacher. There were always pupils who would say anything to get attention. Some you felt pity for, but others seemed only to be selfish individuals who were willing to take advantage of what they saw as a weak system to annoy other pupils and the teacher (perhaps as a response to unhappiness in their lives outside of school). Many of us argued with management that we were not social workers and could not deal with their complex needs while trying to teach all the other much less vocal pupils in the class. GWC2 is like one of these ‘look at me’, selfish pupils, whom the others were forced to put up with.

Obviously there are limitations to the analogy I have drawn here, especially the fact that we as adults can usually choose not to listen to or read the views of people we disagree with or who irritate us. But one thing has always been clear to me. Toleration of deliberately disruptive behaviour in itself is never a virtue.

Sometimes the responsible approach to such disruption is a utilitarian one, which sacrifices the one for the sake of the many. I suspect your response - if indeed you do respond - might include the point that he would probably just come back under a different name. This could be true, but then I would say take action again. Maintaining an environment in which people respect each other requires effort. And GWC2 certainly has little respect for others (and possibly himself).

Simple answer to a simple question (and it's the same one I've given several billion times before, although no-one ever seems to take it on board) : It is not possible to ban individuals from commenting on the Blogger platform.

James you should be conducting a democratic blogg and certainly not giving advise to anyone. Clearly there are some fascists comment on your blogg who wish to silence people they disagree with. However notwithstanding the aforementioned your blogg does give some humour.

Is there any way you can sort of, pin a post, regarding this matter? That would allow users to point to that post in response to any complaint we find in the commentary and also allow us to refresh our own memories regarding your position and the detail of that position on this matter; for example, why you haven't chosen to enforce registration etc....

James, I'm sure I'm not the only avid reader of your blog, who inwardly groans when I scroll down and see the dreaded GWC2 troll's garbage? He IS a troll, and There must be many people who dip into your blog and leave quickly when they see the garbage that he posts. Couldn't you conduct a trial for a week or so, deleting all of his posts, and check whether the traffic increases as a result? At the very least, couldn't you at least delete any posts containing the words Nat sis?Alex Birnie

As has been pointed out already, offensive trolling is a criminal offence. I take exception to being labelled in the manner the troll persists in doing.

At least investigate prosecution.

I offered - and other have too - to put up money for the fundraiser to move the site to a platform which does allow troll blocking. My offer still stands.

I really do believe he is employed to fuck up this site. He always posts in the evening. He has a distinct pattern. I think he works backshift at whatever establishment is paying him. He only shows up on this site - of the top pro indy sites.

Try at least to have him injuncted. I am willing to contribute to the cost of that.

Sending by means of the Internet a message or other matter that is grossly offensive or of an indecent, obscene or menacing character; or sending a false message by means of or persistently making use of the Internet for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety is guilty of an offence liable, on conviction, to imprisonment. This wording is important because an offence is complete as soon as the message has been sent: there is no need to prove any intent or purpose.

I am a member of a forum which allows us to 'Ignore' specific posters and over the years I've built up a long Iggy list. Any chance this could be done? There's only 1 poster I'd like to filter out entirely, as people like Aldo have their place.

Thanks for replying James, but your simple answer is unsatisfactory. I've looked at your site many times but if I did see anything about the Blogger platform’s limitations, I had forgotten it. Chris Darroch’s suggestion seems a good one, but I presume it’s come up before and you’ve previously addressed it.

One implication of what you wrote would be that, for example, a bunch of schoolkids (or malicious adults) could - as a ‘laugh’ - overwhelm your comments section with vile homophobic comments or violent threats and you would not be able to stop them. I don’t believe that. Perhaps you can delete comments, but it’s too time consuming or it would probably reduce the chances of people interacting on the blog. That I can understand. There would be a trade off calculation to be made between these important outcomes and the slim chance of some posters ‘going ballistic’. But I would still come back to the point I made about the need to put effort into maintaining a respectful environment.

Anyway, whatever your reasons, I intend to take your advice and ignore GWC2, but I am going to do it by not venturing into your Comments section. If you always allow the dog to piss in your living room, don’t expect friends to do more than say hello at the front door. So, for my second and last comment on your site let me publicly state how much I enjoy and value your analysis and commentary.

Love the analogy of the dog piss. I too, offered to help crowd fund a "flit" to a better platform, one where the dog can be kept outside, but it appears that this is not going to happen. I think Ian is right, and my future visits will stop at the front door. James' blog is too good to miss, but on the occasions when I read the comments, I have to put on mental galoshes, so that GWC's pish and shit doesn't stick to my shoes.Alex Birnie

What utter insular pish on this thread. Out of EU out of Uk that is consistent joined up thinking, Sillars is right how can the Scottish government square this circle, at the very least a brexit would breath life back in to our fishing industry. Wake up and smell the coffee Scotland.

The fishing industry thing is a bit of a lie by them though, yes it has suffered, but when Farage sits on the committee for fishing and doesn't bother going to it, then you have the UK Gov giving away our say on it for other deals, notably finance then you get the impression it's not really the EU's fault for the demise of fishing, but the UK govs.

Stuart you completely miss the point like most Yoons. The Eu is not a sovereign parliament. It is an agreed parliament of independent nations. Those nations including the UK are sovereign.

The Eu is elected and individual countries send MEPs to it. Scotland is not voting on the Eu, essentially England is deciding for us as they do in all important matters.

If an independent Scotland chose to leave the Eu that would be a matter for us. But at the moment we are not voting in or out as Scotland. Sillars is a complete fool. He would rather London had more control untempered by Brussels. Giving more control to London will hurt Scotland not help it.

If you think Sillars is right then you need to study history and constitutional law. He has lost the plot if he ever had it. He is no friend of Scotland.

Finally I am a Scot and also a European by geography. I want Scotland to be represented in the continent of Europe without an English accent.

Stuart you completely miss the point like most Yoons. The Eu is not a sovereign parliament. It is an agreed parliament of independent nations. Those nations including the UK are sovereign.

The Eu is elected and individual countries send MEPs to it. Scotland is not voting on the Eu, essentially England is deciding for us as they do in all important matters.

If an independent Scotland chose to leave the Eu that would be a matter for us. But at the moment we are not voting in or out as Scotland. Sillars is a complete fool. He would rather London had more control untempered by Brussels. Giving more control to London will hurt Scotland not help it.

If you think Sillars is right then you need to study history and constitutional law. He has lost the plot if he ever had it. He is no friend of Scotland.

Finally I am a Scot and also a European by geography. I want Scotland to be represented in the continent of Europe without an English accent.

If not Lord Baron Georgio Von Pensions, could it be FIFI, his old bag carrier?It may be too inarticulate for FIFI, though she did use racy language at times----perhaps Spud O'Murph should be mentioned. He had a very nasty streak!

Nice to see Glasgow Working Class 2 still has the time to share her views with other people. I suppose she has employed someone to tend the garden in Langside and clean the house so her time can be better spent pretending she's flying the red flag in Shettleston. Is GWC2 really Margaret Curran?

If it has swung things for Remain then it ensures an EU 'neverendum' scenario. Since the most pivotal period of campaigning has effectively been cancelled when all the polls were showing the Leave vote winning and gaining ground.

Eurosceptic Tories and Kippers will simply try to write off the result as a byproduct of the horrific Jo Cox murder and demand another referendum.

The signs are there already that they are preparing to do so if the polls have indeed swung back to Remain.

Full campaigning is due to resume on Sunday/Monday, as far as I am aware, which leaves plenty of time - remembering the old maxim "A week is a long time in politics". But I tend to agree with your basic premise - this EU Ref will NOT end the matter.

Leave might be doing some very low level stuff Sat and Sunday but AFAIK the official Remain campaigns seem to be shut down till Tuesday as Monday is a Westminster recall for tributes to Jo Cox. Need to wait and see tbh

This weekend was a pivotal campaigning period. It was always going to be that way and there was a huge amount of activity scheduled up and down Scotland and of course everywhere else. That's not to validate anyone's pet theory or view over the murder/referendum. It's just to state the obvious.

If the official campaigns do indeed start up again on Tuesday then that's only two days of real campaigning till the actual polling day itself.

That's an incredibly short and condensed amount of time to deliver what was - on both sides - a carefully choreographed schedule of announcements, doorchapping, leafleting, interviews, advertising, debates and a whole lot else that has basically been totally wiped out by yesterday's appalling and horrific events.

I can scarcely imagine anything less conducive to a calm and reasoned approach than having a final chaotic couple of days to hammer both sides main theme home. With almost no rebuttal period where every lie and piece of ludicrous scaremongering can take hold before they are 'corrected'. On both sides.

Even if Monday gets added it's still going to be excruciating to have to watch and even less fun to take part in. "Febrile" won't even come close.

Really not sure how this will play Keaton. I understand your view, but I am not sure how much the 'normal'(and potential) leave voters will associate the question with what is the actions of an obviously mentally ill UK neo nazi.

Remainers may well take that view, but if that view gets peddled too hard (which it may), then it could well end up being seen as the king of outrageous and cynical political establishment smears on a majority of the 'normal' population.

Something more likely to anger and divide (depending on your previous held view) rather than encourage movement to one side or the other?

I was also sensing, before the murder, the start of a very unpleasant ratcheting up of the 'Nigel Farage' immigrants interview and campaigning attitude. The euphoria of the leave polls inducing the beginnings of a possible Neil Kinnock 'well aaall rightttt!' hubris type moment in the closing stages for Brexit. Calamity!

I really think this was the biggest danger to Leave and I also think that the current circumstances will make that almost impossible now, as even Nigel and the loopier side of Leave will be tapping into (and being restrained by) the jointly agreed downbeat funerial flavour of the remainder of the campaign proceedings.

If Leave were in fact 10 points ahead, then they may well be able to just about freewheel over the line come Thursday.

What do I know though, the Lady Di phenomenon left me cold and excommunicated socially ;-(

David it's actually a game changer. Everything is different now. The tragedy may open peoples eyes to how bigoted right wing Britain can be. I suspect a lot of people will drift back to the inclusive EU.

We've known for months you aren't Scottish, certainly aren't working class and are a far right tory.

Hence why you always get so upset when anyone laughs at the tories on here or mocks the right.

How many more months do you plan on making an embarrassing c*nt out of yourself GWC2? Do you even realise how pathetic you look trying to pretend to be Labour or Scottish or working class? For once in your life stop making a complete twat out of yourself and piss off back to Stormfront Lite. That place is full of your sort of self-humiliating 'comedy'. Not that they are any more self-aware than you of course.

He's not Scottish. Using McGibbon as a troll name is no more proof than using Glasgow or Working Class and scots do not refer to themselves as "you jocks" like he has on numerous occasions. Not to mention his very funny attempts at an accent more akin to Russ Abbot than any real Glaswegian.

Thanks for the NBC poll as that's interesting info. Though the betting is reactive and not predictive. Bookies will take more in an hour of the Euro Football betting than they likely will for all the EU ref betting. It's promotional/vanity stuff and no more predictive than the last G.E. or Corbyn to become leader.