In this recent post on the Wheat & Tares blog, the author, Jake, bases his article on the statistic that temple-sealed Mormons have a miraculously low divorce rate of 6%.

In support of that percentage he uses a number of sources, the first being a 1984News of the Church article referencing a study conducted by BYU sociology professor Tim Henton and the church’s Kirsten Goodman of the Correlation Evaluation Department. Their report finds that:

“Nontemple marriages are about five times more likely to end in divorce than temple marriages.” About 5.4 percent of LDS males who married in the temple were later divorced, and about 6.5 percent of the females. By comparison, some 27.8 percent of nontemple LDS marriages ended in divorce for men, and about 32.7 percent for women.”

The author ends his summary of statistics by briefly mentioning the counter argument to the low-divorce-rate hypothesis with the following, “Now something that has been pointed out is that these statistics may not be fully accurate and representative, due to the fact that getting a temple divorce is notoriously difficult to do and the 6% represent only those who have had their marriage both legally and ecclesiastically divorced.”

After offering that caveat, it is concluded that: “The consensus seems to be that even if it is not as dramatically low as is portrayed, it is clear that Mormon marriages divorce rates are lower than the national average rate.”

This conclusion seems premature. I’m not sure there is an agreement that “Mormon marriages divorce rates are lower than the national average rate.” Further, we are never presented with the information that would counter the low percentage of Mormon divorces.

I followed a link in Jake’s article to the Ontario Consultants of Religious Tolerance website (religioustolerance.org), which provides the following information:

Overall, the Mormon divorce rate appears to be no different from the average American divorce rate. A 1999 study by Barna Research of nearly 4,000 U.S. adults showed that 24% of Mormon marriages end in divorce — a number statistically equal to the divorce rate among all Americans. Members of non-denominational churches (typically Fumndamentalist in teaching) and born-again Christians experience a significantly higher divorce rate; Agnostics and Atheists have much a lower rate.

This data is supported by an earlier study the National Survey of Families and Households. Itfound that about 26% of both Mormons and non-Mormons had experienced at least one divorce at some time during their life.

That information is very important as it confounds the church-approved messages regarding Mormon temple marriages that are repeated ad nauseum over the pulpit.

Is he really saying that only 6% of Mormons get divorced? No, he isn’t. He is only saying that 6% of Mormons actually go through the process of severing their temple marriage. It is a lie of omission. He doesn’t clarify that an individual who gets a secular divorce doesn’t necessarily go through a temple sealing cancellation.

From what I’ve found, in order to get a temple sealing cancellation one needs permission from the First Presidency. If you’re a woman, it is customary to receive written permission from the ex-husband. (Need I even add that if you’re a man, such permission in not necessary?) Understanding what it takes to get a temple sealing puts Henton and Goodman’s 1984 study in the proper context and explains why only 5.4% of males and 6.5% of females get a temple divorce. After all, if females want to remarry in the temple, they need a sealing cancellation with permission from their former spouse. Men don’t have to play by the same rules and their numbers are lower for it.

My biggest problem with the whole fraudulent “6% get divorced” regurgitation, is that it prevents an honest discussion about temple marriage from ever occurring.

According to the Center for Disease Control, the average U.S. divorce rate in 2009 was 3.4 per 1,000 people. Utah’s divorce rate for 2009 was 3.6. Since 1990, their numbers have looked like this:

Year

1990

1995

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Divorce Rate

5.1

4.4

4.0

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.6

(The full chart for divorce rates by state can be found on CDC’s website here)

If you’ll allow me to use Utah as a representative for the Mormon church, data suggests they have consistently been above the average U.S. divorce rate. Even with falling divorce rates, their numbers mirror the rest of the nation whose rates of divorce are also in decline.

In reality, temple-married Mormons get divorced like everyone else. It just so happens that they don’t go through the trouble of getting permission from a group of strangers as well as their estranged ex spouses to complete the church’s requirement for a temple sealing cancellation.

I agree the 6% claim isn’t accurate – but then, in this post, you make the exact same mistake by giving the rate for all Mormon divorces and applying it to temple marriages.

The report I saw that I believe is closest to accurate (and I admit upfront that I saw it about four years ago and don’t care enough to find it again now) gave a civil divorce rate for those who had been sealed in the temple of about 12%, a non-temple but both spouses Mormon divorce rate of about 21% (pretty much exactly what the other religious categories showed) and a Mormon/non-Mormon divorce rate of about 41% – the highest religious category rate identified. The overall rate involving marriages with at least one Mormon was around 25% – which matches the rate in this post.

So, based on these numbers: 1) It appears that the “real” divorce rate for temple marriages is about 60% of the average rate for those who self-identify as Christian; 2) It appears that being a member of the LDS Church and not getting sealed in the temple makes no difference whatsoever with regard to divorce; 3) It appears that a Mormon who marries a non-Mormon is roughly twice as likely to get a divorce as two Christians who marry each other, regardless of denomination.

Finally, the state of Utah is roughly 70% Mormon now, I think. It might be slightly lower than that by now. Thus, the stats you cite at the end bolster the general idea of the stats I just provided – that, when all is said and done, Mormons of all types divorce at pretty much the exact same rate that non-Mormons do – but temple married Mormons divorce at a significantly lower rate.

It’s just not 6%.

Ray

One more thing:

The real question for me is what the percentage is for uber-dedicated members of other denominations. There is no obvious, easily-identifiable, quick, survey-friendly measure for them, so we have an uber-dedicated Mormon rate and no comparable rate for other religious groups. For all we know, the rate for temple married Mormons might be exactly in line with other comparable groups – but we have no way currently to know, one way or the other.

Eric Z

Ray,

I think you make good points in both of your posts. It’s true that there is no way of knowing how many uber-dedicated members within Mormonism (or other denominations) get divorced, but I would submit that measuring dedication is impossible. And even if it was definable, it certainly is unmeasurable. Because it can’t be measured, I think the best we can do is use extant data.

When I was looking for divorce statistics, I couldn’t find any report that looked at the actual religious ceremonies in which a person participated (e.g. Mormon temple sealing) and the divore rate. If I would’ve found anything to suggest that temple married Mormons divorce at a lower rate, I would have posted it. But I saw nothing that.

I realize comparing Utah data with church data may be unreliable, and that we reach the same conclusion as your point 2 below. But I think it is the best available data set we can use. Perhaps I could have softened my conclusion by stating “it appears temple married persons divorce at the same rate.” But I don’t think it changes the intent of the post.

Finally, I think I read that Mormons who marry non-mormons experience a 40% divorce rate, which as you say is about doulbe the normal divorce rate.

Let me know if that answers your points.

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=698295684 Hellmut Lotz

Thank you very much for your analysis, Eric. Is the divorce rate measured per 1,000 people or per 1,000 adults, please?

Eric Z

Here is what CDC said:

“Rates are based on provisional counts of divorces by state of occurrence. Rates are per 1,000 total population residing in area.”

It appears that rates is per total population, and not just adults. But I will dig a little deeper and see if I can’t get a more concrete answer.

John Mansfield

“I emailed the BYU professor quoted in the article, Daniel K. Judd, and asked him about the origin of the 6% statistic to which he replied: ‘The six percent I quoted was a combined statistic for LDS men and women, once sealed in the temple who had ever had a civil divorce.’”

I followed the link and read the post. It appears that Dr. Judd goes on to quote from Tim Henton and Kirsten Goodman’s study which cites the 6.5% and 5.4% statistic. In fact, he even admits to just combining the two numbers.

If that’s the case, I don’t understand how Dr. Judd can support his claim that the his number is from all LDS Temple Married individuals who ever received a civil divorce after being sealed in the temple. Especially when looking at how old the original study is. In fact, he did nothing more than repeat the numbers. Originally I thought he at least did some original research.

I’m not trying to be a contrarian, I genuinely don’t understand how he can make that claim.

John, I don’t understand how your blog, as well as the respondents to your blog can gleefully celebrate conclusions that are clearly based on biased, flawed data that’s the end result of shoddy scholarship. It baffles me.

This is even more baffling when one considers that these figures were merely more evident of research that, in classic LdS Apologist fashion, came to the conclusion first and then bent the facts to fit it.

There’s really nothing new here as Duwayne Anderson demonstrated in his 2005 address ‘Lies, Damn Lies, & LDS Statistics’ (see http://www.concernedchristians.com/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=42&func=view&id=75644&catid=527 for portal page) this “numbers cooking” and “data mining” by the LdS Church and/or BYU faculty members is really just par for the course.

http://NoMormonInWhiteHouse.blogspot.com/ Timothy Lee Unrine

Judd says whatever the prophet wants him to say.

For every BYU “professor” knows that anything published that doesn’t make Mormons look super-human, get you excommunicated and fired.

Makes BYU-degree worthless. Might as well sell them online in a diploma mill, you just repeat what the prophet puppet master tells you to say.

Bridgetdonovan

Yes, Mormons are not taking their marriage covenants seriously. They’ve followed the trend of the world, which is to just unload the old marriage partner and go after the new. I’ll bet at least half of the divorces wouldn’t happen if people were just more concerned with pleasing the Lord than they were in pleasing themselves. Actually, we could get rid of divorce if everyone really loved the Lord better than they loved their own egotistical selves.

Anonymous

I don’t know about you, but I married my spouse because I love her–not because I loved the Lord or loved myself better than the Lord. It is my considered opinion that marriages in which one or both parties love anyone or anything more than they love their own spouse, even if that entity is the Lord, are potentially in jeopardy–especially if one of the parties has a strong commitment to a particular fundamentalist, religious belief system to which the other party is not equally committed.

Eric Z

I couldn’t agree more. I really appreciate your perspective.

I don’t think pleasing the Lord has anything to do with marital happiness. I think too many LDS members dedicate too much time to work and church, and neglect home and family.

Anonymous

I agree! This raises the question of what it means to please the Lord. Does it really please the Lord when the primary objective for what one does is to please the Lord? If one’s actions are not primarily motivated by a genuine love and concern for the well being of others as much as one’s own well being (especially that of one’s own spouse and close family members), regardless of whether there is a Lord to please, would or should the Lord really be pleased by that? I don’t think so!

Guest

“If you’ll allow me to use Utah as a representative for the Mormon church”

More and more thats not a legitamate option. Now only 58% self identify as Mormon and that figure likely includes many “jack” Mormons. That leaves 42% of utahans that could in theory have a high rate of divorce, scewing the numbers as a whole.

Dave

Yo, you can’t compare groups of people with wildly differing marriage rates. You have to make it general: the frequency of romantic cohabitational relationships (>5 years) that end in the couple splitting up. Now what are the numbers?

dominionlee@gmail.com

The statement about Women needing their former Husbands permission to receive a temple divorce is not accurate. Although a letter from the spouse is requested, it is not required and a former husband or wife certainly don’t control the outcome of a second marriage by their former spouse.

JMD

This is true and it goes both ways. I’m currently going through the process of getting a temple divorce, as is my girlfriend. Both of us are sealed to our ex-spouses and both of our ex-spouses were requested to write a letter expressing their feelings about the cancellation of their sealing.

John

Another thing to consider is that many of the people who get married in the temple and do not divorce are converts who had slept around and dated many people before they got married.
It would be interesting to see how many young Mormon couples get divorced every year.
I am sure that my story is similar to many others. I got home from my mission when I was 23 and got engaged 10 months later to a girl I had been dating for a month. Now to most of the world that would be insane, but in the church I was praised so highly about my decision! And it was all I’d ever known, so I went along with it even when I saw red flags during our engagement.
We don’t have any kids yet, but here we are 2 years later and I’m trying to convince my wife of the HUGE mistake that we made. We did not know each other, we both really just wanted sex, and we were both so influenced to think that marriage was the NEXT step and only step for us.

So, I live in hell day after day knowing that she deserves someone who wants to go to church and believes in God and loves her with all their heart.
I just wish that she would leave so I didn’t have to.
Btw, we are trying counseling, but that will never change the initial error.

kenzie

“doubt your doubt, before you doubt your faith.” -Utchdorf

Rich

As a secular convert to the church my perspective on marriage prior was quite different. I wanted beautiful, talented, intelligent .and exciting from a spouse and every adventure and intellectual fulfillment from life. After 7 years of cohabitating and brief marriage, my wife left me. We were living in Italy- I had just finished a veterinary internship in London, and yet the whole dream crashed. It was in the emptiness of my small apartment in Milan that God sent his missionaries. Again in all my secular arrogance, the last people I would have ever made eye contact with were the very missionaries who saved me. It was because of them that I came to know Jesus Christ and understand God’s plan and love for his children. So here’s the key- it’s not subtle or nuanced. We either learn to love ourselves first and live that way, or die unto ourselves and make the sacrifice necessary to love our spouses and children. The commandments are ordered clearly- only if you love God first can we hope to properly love another.
My wife came back. We are still here after 34 years. I tell her I will serve her till I die. She just rolls her eyes and says “Good”.
It’s okay. Young people love each other fiercely. You live in a world that simply gives no support to the institution of marriage and that will make your own that much more challenging. Serve him first and he will give you the kindness and mercy necessary to have a family. He found us-despite our reluctance- inspite of our aborted child we still cry over. He is forgiving and loving- eternal marriage is real. Cherish your spouse. Trust me.

lasvegaspamela

Beautifully stated, Rich, as to how joining the Church and gaining that knowledge of things eternal is what makes the difference here on earth. LOVED your thought: “So here’s the key – it’s not subtle or nuanced. . .”

Thanks for your testimony.

Cody P

I don’t know where you got the idea that 6% is an often-repeated statistic. I’ve only heard 6% once before I read this article and heard the “half of Mormon women have or will be divorced at some point” or similar arguments countless times.

“From what I’ve found, in order to get a temple sealing cancellation one
needs permission from the First Presidency. If you’re a woman, it is
customary to receive written permission from the ex-husband. (Need I
even add that if you’re a man, such permission in not necessary?)”

This is false, and it was false in 2011 and earlier. First of all, men can never request and receive cancellations. Only women can. If a man does not want to be a spiritual polygamist, it is just too bad. A male friend of mine has tried to get a cancellation, has been turned down, and has appealed it 3 times with no luck.

Secondly, neither men nor women need permission from their ex-spouse. However, both have to go through the exact same process of their bishop requesting a letter asking the ex-spouse’s opinion about it. It won’t typically stop the process if the ex-spouse doesn’t give ‘permission.’ Often this makes the ex-spouse appear bitter and vengeful, and it might even make the clearance or cancellation *more* likely to succeed.

JMD

This is true. My girlfriend and I are both going through this process right now. Both of our spouses (still sealed to us) were asked to write letters. The only difference is that her sealing will be cancelled and mine won’t unless my ex-wife chooses to have it cancelled. I instead need to obtain a “sealing clearance” which allows me to get sealed again (without breaking the previous sealing). The process is the same, though.