Ford said Thursday its first-quarter profit will fall by more than 50% to about 30 cents to 35 cents per share because of higher costs and lower vehicle sales as it briefed Wall Street on its view of market conditions and various public policy issues.

Analysts, on average, were expecting Ford to earn 47 cents per share for the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.

Last year, the automaker earned 68 cents per share for the first quarter and had a record quarterly pre-tax profit of $3.8 billion, calling that quarter one of its best quarters ever.

That forecast for the year is unchanged from January. Still, the automaker's first-quarter profit warning sent its stock price down 27 cents per share, or 2.2%, to a low of $11.50 per share in morning trading. Ford's stock rebounded to close at $11.67 per share, down .89%.

The automaker made the disclosure in a securities filing Thursday ahead of a talk hosted by Bob Shanks, Ford's chief financial officer.

Shanks told Wall Street analysts that Ford's first-quarter profits would fall because sales of cars and trucks are declining slightly, costs of commodities such as steel are increasing, engineering costs will increase and warranty costs will increase for the quarter.

Adam Jonas, analyst for Morgan Stanley, said in a report last month that there are growing concerns that Ford's profit margin in North America peaked at 10% in 2013 and could fall in the coming years because industry sales are likely to fall slightly and incentives are increasing.

But Shanks said the automaker's earnings will improve in 2018 and pre-tax profits will exceed 2016 levels after several key product launches. Ford earned a profit in Europe last year and is likely to see continued improvement there, he said.

Trade issues

Shanks also sought to assure analysts that Ford is in a better position than most when it comes to a possible restructuring of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

This year, the Trump administration wants to pursue a number of policy issues that could impact the auto industry. Ford, Shanks said, is closely watching today's vote on the Republican health care plan.

"Whatever comes out of that ... could have a big impact on all of the other things the administration wants to accomplish," Shanks said.

One of President Donald Trump's first priorities is to renegotiate NAFTA and, potentially, impose a steep border tax on goods imported from Mexico.

Tha, "would be a drag on our business," Shanks said, "but again on a relative basis, we are not one of the biggest players (in Mexico)."

In 2016, 80% of the vehicles Ford sold in the U.S. were made in the U.S. while 13% were made in Mexico and 7% were made in Canada. Ford makes the Ford Fusion and Ford Fiesta in Mexico and, starting in 2018, will make the Ford Focus at its plant in Hermosillo.

But Shanks reminded analysts that car sales in North America continue to decline and, on a per-unit basis, are less profitable than trucks and SUVs.

"Seventy-three percent of our business is trucks and utilities in the U.S.," he said.

Fuel efficiency

Shanks also said Ford remains committed to improving fuel economy and reducing emissions of its products, even though the Trump administration has restarted a review process of auto regulations and has signaled it favors easing regulations that will go into effect from 2021-25.

"We are not asking for, or seeking, any kind of rollback in terms of the direction we want to head," Shanks said. "We just want to have a conversation around how one gets to the levels we want to achieve ... given what we see is a very different set of factors in the real world vs. what we saw back in 2011."