Triangulation has complications. The next minority government standoff could come soon — in a long, hot summer of labour strife.

The feel-good political chemistry between Dalton McGuinty, left, and Andrea Horwath will prove short-lived, Queen's Park columnist says. That means McGuinty and Tim Hudak, right, may soon have to make nice.

Minority government has brought Dalton McGuinty and Andrea Horwath together for a Liberal-NDP alliance of convenience. And left Tory leader Tim Hudak out of the sandbox.

Now, the shifting sands of Ontario politics are about to turn that box upside down.

The feel-good political chemistry between Dalton and Andrea will prove short-lived. Their parties are on an unavoidable collision course on labour issues.

As for the resurgent personal tension between the premier and his Tory counterpart, Dalton and Tim may soon have to make nice.

In a minority government, triangulation means trying to get along with your rivals for your own self-preservation — positioning yourself between left and right. It’s a central part of the premier’s playbook.

Of course, triangulation has complications — which explains why the Liberals are so keen to pick off more seats by luring opposition MPPs with government jobs. But even if they ultimately regain their majority through byelections, the next minority government standoff could come sooner than expected — in a long, hot summer of labour strife.

As winter turned to spring, McGuinty needed (and heeded) Horwath’s NDP to pass his budget — adding a tax hike on the rich and a welfare hike for the poor. In secret phone calls and private meetings, the two leaders thrashed out a deal they could sell to their own parties — and the public.

How did they get along? Famously, according to both of them.

“I thought she brought the right mindset to the table,” McGuinty recalled in an interview.

He characterized their approach as, “We’re going to listen to each other; we’re not just going to talk at each other.”

Horwath was equally effusive.

“The premier is a very cordial person,” she told me. “We had different opinions, but it was productive because it was respectful.”

Whenever McGuinty lapsed into platitudes or fixed positions, Horwath “gently reminded him” that they had to move forward. Together. Especially on her demand for a tax on the rich.

“It wasn’t easy for the premier, I think, to talk about tax increases,” she observes. The NDP also compromised on its other demands, and neither side tried “to railroad” the other.

“There were no cheap political shots.”

Soon, their new-found affinity may be old news. As labour tensions dominate the agenda, Liberals and New Democrats will grow apart — and the Tories will be in closer alignment with McGuinty’s stated goal of a two-year wage freeze for teachers’ unions and other public sector workers.

Can McGuinty and Hudak recast their strained relationship?

Their first post-election tête-à-tête got off on the wrong foot when Hudak talked tough — demanding, improbably, the scalp of Dwight Duncan (who had just been reappointed finance minister). McGuinty was not amused.

When McGuinty later hatched a deal with the NDP, he pointedly snubbed Hudak in the Legislature — refusing to take his questions. It was an uncharacteristic breach of parliamentary protocol by a premier who usually stays above the fray.

“My door will always be open,” McGuinty says now. “You know what? We need to be big enough to find a way around that.”

For his part, Hudak says he’s surprised by the premier’s remoteness, but downplays any resentments.

“Listen, politics is politics and I know you’ve got to throw elbows from time to time,” he says. “We’re competitors.”

Détente may come sooner than anyone expects. Negotiations with the province’s 128,000 teachers are going poorly, increasing the likelihood that McGuinty will legislate a wage freeze (and a contentious suspension of their salary grid). Hudak says it’s long overdue, and he’s willing to co-operate — if McGuinty reaches out ahead of time.

“Oh, for sure,” he says. “It’s clear where the Conservatives are coming from and the land that we occupy. And if they want to get our support, they know where we’re at.”

McGuinty muses that in a minority, he draws inspiration from imperial Britain: “She had no permanent enemies and no permanent allies — only permanent interests.”

In politics, as in history, triangulation has a way of coming full circle.

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