The Institution

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is an independent public agency. It draws up studies and projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues and on the integration of these policies within a context of sustainable development.

Jean-Marc Paul

Jean-Marc Paul is a mathematician. He was bitten by the computer science bug very early and specialized in the field. He designed the econometric tools used to develop and operate the econometric models of the FPB, such as Hermes, Modtrim or Maltese. These tools are mostly written in APL and C/C++ and run on Windows and Linux.

Jean-Marc is also a member of the FPB’s Demography team, where he is responsible for developing methods for mortality rate projections and for programming the demography model. He is also responsible for building tables for converting usufruct into capital and is a member of the Usufruct Commission of the Royal Federation of Belgian Notaries.

Jean-Marc has also gained broad experience in web development. He has been the coordinator of the FPB’s IT team since 1990.

He has been a member of the expert panel in charge of verifying the voting and counting systems used for local, regional, federal and European elections since 2004.

Coordonnées

Teams

The Federal Planning Bureau publishes its 2017-2070 demographic projections for Belgium. This exercise notably reveals the impact of the disappearance of the baby boom generation, as well as certain regional differences.

This Working Paper analyses various alternative population projections. The first approach shows the impact of alternative future development scenarios for the population growth components. The effects of some of these scenarios on the development in social expenditure and the at-risk-of-poverty rate for pensioners are also analysed. The second approach consists in carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the population projection to some model parameters, in particular the observation periods selected to estimate trends.

The Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium have updated their demographic projections until 2060. Belgium’s population should grow from 11.2 million in 2014 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 13.1 million in 2060 (+17%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+10%) and 5.9 million in 2060 (+23%).

These results are based on a set of hypotheses regarding the future evolution of birth and death rates, international and domestic migration and, as far as households are concerned, the evolution of the different ways of living together. One chapter of the publication deals with prospective mortality rates, which allows projecting « period » life expectancies (cross-sectional approach) and « generational » life expectancies (cohort approach).

The Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General Statistics and Economic Information have updated their demographic projections until 2060. Belgium’s population should grow from 11.1 million in 2013 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 12.5 million in 2060 (+13%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+11%) and 5.8 million in 2060 (+21%).

These results are based on a set of hypotheses regarding the future evolution of birth and death rates, international and domestic migration and, as far as households are concerned, the evolution of the different ways of living together. One chapter of the publication deals with prospective mortality rates, which allows projecting « period » life expectancies (cross-sectional approach) and « generational » life expectancies (cohort approach).