The Third Force is calling Merdeka Centre’s bluff

TTF: The Third Force is calling Merdeka Centre’s bluff on its prediction of the 14th general election results (see news item below). Without going into the specifics for the moment, we declare the findings by the research firm to be heavily slanted and not reflective of circumstances prevailing.

As such, it is our contention that the GE14 results will look something as follows:

For a more detailed description of the forecast, click on the following link:

KUALA LUMPUR: Just hours ahead of what is seen as one of the most contested elections ever in the country’s political history, the Merdeka Centre for opinion research has predicted that Barisan Nasional (BN) was set to be re-elected into power.

Its survey among registered voters in the peninsular between April 28 until noon today found that ruling coalition would however suffer a popular vote decline.

It found that topping the list of voters concern was the cost of living and governance issues.

“This has been an election propelled by a voter revolt over the GST (Goods and Services Tax) as well as concerns over rising cost of living, running parallel alongside perceived governance shortfalls.

The top three issues considered most important to the voters were economic concerns at 43 per cent, followed by good governance (corruption) issues at 21 per cent, and weakness of leadership at 8 per cent.

Malay voters expressed the highest concern about economic issues (46 per cent) and followed by good governance issue (17 per cent). Chinese voters placed equal emphasis on economic (37 per cent) and corruption issues (35 per cent).

Meanwhile, Indian voters also held high levels of concern over economic issues (43 per cent) and placed the need for better treatment towards the Indian community at 15 per cent.

Younger voters, those below 40 years old, placed more emphasis on matters related to good governance and leadership, while voters over 40 years expressed slightly higher on concerns over communal rights (11 per cent).

The survey also detected a significant shift to factors such as ethnic rights, which saw a perceptible decline, while desire for better economic performance increased.

Barisan Nasional was expected to garner 37.3 per cent of the popular votes, while Pakatan Harapan 43.4 per cent and Pas just 19.3 per cent.

However, based on the survey results, BN presently still retained a sizable seat advantage over its rivals.

Based on current standings, it estimated there were 100 safe seats for BN, 83 for Pakatan Harapan and just two for Pas, with a 37 marginal seats.

The Merdeka Centre predicted that alongside Pas’s ability to retain at least one-quarter of the Malay vote share, it was anticipated that BN would prevail in the election.

“The high number of marginal seats (37), implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day,” it said in a statement released today.

A total of 1,579 registered voters in 70 marginal seats in Peninsular Malaysia comprising 68 per cent Malay, 24 per cent Chinese and 8 per cent Indian respondents were interviewed by telephone in the poll.

In addition to the national marginal seat survey, additional state level tracking surveys were concurrently carried out in Selangor, and Johor. These were complemented by earlier surveys in Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Penang, Kedah, Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, all of which were conducted between April 7 and 26, 2018.

However, it said there remained two important events that were to take place later tonight, that is the final address by BN chairman and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak as well as one from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

It said as the survey was concluded at noon today, it may not capture any last minute shift or changes that may take place in the final hours of the campaign.