WASHINGTON – Analysts say because Israel now believes
diplomacy has failed to halt Iran’s nuclear program and the
Jewish state’s very survival is at stake, Israelis have not
ruled out a Jericho III missile launch to detonate a single
electromagnetic pulse warhead at high altitude over central
Iran.

The assessment is underscored by recent comments from Israeli
officials that the Islamic republic is reaching its “zone of
immunity” from conventional military attack on its nuclear
sites.

In addition, analysts point out the use of long-range
aircraft with refueling capability would be highly complex and
pose many logistical problems. Israel also probably would not be
allowed overflight permission from Turkey, Iraq or Saudi Arabia
to reach its Iranian targets. Further, such an approach would
minimize any element of surprise.

Meanwhile, top religious and political officials in Iran have
issued repeated warnings they plan to obliterate the Jewish
state.

Israel has made an assessment that Iran is on the threshold
of a breakthrough to make a nuclear weapon. However, some
national security experts, including some in the United States,
believe Iran is several years away from making such a device.
And they say actual weaponization – the ability to miniaturize a
nuclear bomb to fit on its nuclear-capable missiles – still is
further off.

Debate over just how close Iran may be to making a nuclear
weapon has raised the issue of the quality of the intelligence
to back Israeli claims. Sources point to the example of the
intelligence used to assess Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction
that prompted the U.S. to attack Iraq in March 2003.

With Iran continuing its enrichment program, however, Israel
and some Western countries are concerned that the amount of
low-level uranium it has enriched could be enriched further to
some 90 percent purity – which is what is required to make
nuclear weapons.

U.S. officials don’t assess that Iran has reached that point.

Given that Iranian sites may be hardened against a
conventional military attack, several Israeli and foreign
sources believe that Israel has a nuclear device to create an
electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, that would produce little
radiation on the ground but could knock out all of Iran’s
electronics.

Israel also is assessed to be able to launch nuclear-tipped
ballistic missiles from its German-supplied Dolphin electric
submarines that could carry a one-kiloton or more device and
explode over Iran, effectively neutralizing all of Iran’s
electronics.

This would include Iran’s command and control capabilities
and its ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation to a
pre-emptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, which
Western intelligence has assessed is a cover to make nuclear
weapons.

Sources say that an Israeli EMP attack also would effectively
halt Iran’s ability to launch its forces to block the Strait of
Hormuz, which the Islamic republic has threatened to do if it is
attacked, along with targeting a number of U.S. military
facilities in the region, as well as Israel.

An electromagnetic pulse occurs following a nuclear weapon
exploded at a high altitude, creating a very strong electrical
field that can overwhelm all electronics, knocking out or
seriously damaging any electronic devices connected to power
sources or antennas, including communications equipment,
computers, electrical appliances, automobile and aircraft
ignitions systems. Experts say it also can adversely affect a
person’s implanted heart pacemaker device.

The effect from an EMP would be very similar to electronics
in a near lightning strike or a solar storm which also can
affect electronics but on a lesser scale than a pulse from a
high-altitude nuclear explosion.

Another scenario discussed among some Israeli leaders is the
detonation of an EMP over the entire Middle East, including
Israel, whose military infrastructure has been hardened against
such attacks. This would allow Israel to fly its jets directly
to Iran without concerns about detection. Though it would also
turn out the lights in Israel, sources there say the Jewish
state could bring power back for civilians in a matter of days.
A detonation at an altitude of up to 250 miles not only would
affect all electronics in Iran but could damage electrical
systems from the Middle East and much of Europe, these experts
add. Such an EMP event also would dramatically affect all U.S.
military facilities in the region.

An EMP attack on the United States, for example, from a
30-kiloton nuclear weapon exploded at an altitude of 62 miles,
or 100 kilometers, effectively would knock out 70 percent of
electrical systems up to a thousand miles in every direction. A
similar explosion at a higher altitude of some 250 miles would
virtually affect all electronics from Boston to Los Angeles and
from Chicago to New Orleans, according to experts.

Consequently, a detonation limited to Iran would have to be
at a much lower altitude to avoid such far-ranging effects on
the electronics in the region and beyond.

According to U.S. intelligence sources, Israel not only
possesses nuclear devices of one kiloton or more which would be
sufficient to create an effective result from an electromagnetic
pulse but has Jericho III missiles which it tested in 2009
capable of carrying nuclear payloads some 2,500 miles. The
distance between Israel and Iran is approximately 1,000 miles.

U.S. sources knowledgeable about ways to “harden” buildings
and other facilities against an EMP attack say business in this
area has been booming throughout the Middle East for months.

In recent weeks, U.S. intelligence officials have told
WND/G2Bulletin that they have detected Israel handling
propellants for its Jericho missiles.

The prospect that Israel has this capability was first made
known by an ex-CIA case officer, Chet Nagle, at a Capitol Hill
EMPact America press conference held in Washington, D.C., in
November 2011.

“Any Israeli attack on Iran is sure to make of Israel an
international pariah, Nagle argues,” Timmerman said in quoting
Nagle in a conversation. “Plus, the likelihood of success – that
is, in destroying or disabling all of Iran’s nuclear weapons
capabilities (by conventional means) so they have nothing to
launch on the morning after the attack – is low.

“If you’re going to go to all that trouble and be a pariah,”
Timmerman quoted Nagel as saying in their conversation, “why not
take one of those Jericho missiles, and detonate it 300 miles
above the surface and deliver an EMP strike on Iran? That would
stop their clock – if it’s electric – as well as all those
centrifuges and everything else. Then the Greens can take over
the country and we can go back in and rebuild the grid.”

The prospect for this doomsday approach has arisen due to a
comment made by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak last
February that Iran was entering a “zone of immunity” from
military attack. Other officials in recent days have suggested
that such a “zone of immunity” will be reached before the end of
the year.

“The world, including the current U.S. administration,
understands and accepts that Israel necessarily views the threat
differently than they do, and that ultimately, Israel is
responsible for taking the decisions related to its future, its
security and its destiny,” Barak said.

Given that this “zone of immunity” could be reached before
the end of the year, there has been increasing speculation in
recent days that Israel may launch an attack prior to the U.S.
presidential elections in an effort to force the U.S. to act.
Sources say that the Israelis have assessed that if President
Obama is re-elected, he may want to continue down the path of
negotiating with the Iranians.

The sources add that by attacking prior to the U.S. elections
in November, the U.S. then will have no choice but to back
Israel due to the U.S. commitment to ensure Israel’s security.
They add that it also will help Obama’s re-election efforts.

Iran, however, insists that its nuclear development program
is for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty and as a member of the International
Atomic Energy Agency. Under the terms of the NPT, Iran has the
“right” to enrich uranium as it is doing. Iran has enriched up
to 20 percent, which is more than enough for refueling its
nuclear reactors but is considered an acceptable level for
medical research.

As early as 2005, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei issued a fatwa, or religious decree, that is a legal
pronouncement in Islam, that the production, stockpiling and use
of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the
Islamic republic “shall never acquire these weapons.” Last
February, Khamenei reiterated his 2005 fatwa.

“The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue
nuclear weapons,” he said. “There is no doubt that the decision
makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not
after nuclear weapons because the Islamic republic, logically,
religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of
nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of
such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous.”

Sources say that the edict from Khamenei is considered more
than a fatwa, given that he not only is an ayatollah but also
the supreme leader of Iran. For that reason, what he said is
considered a hukm, or decree of the Supreme Jurisprudent, or
Vali-yi Faqih, that determines the legal framework of the
Islamic republic in accordance with Islamic law.

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