Stakes could be high for GOP
By W. James Antle III
web posted November 5, 2001
The outcome of the 1993 elections was a harbinger of things to
come for Bill Clinton. Odd-numbered years feature very few
races of national importance, enhancing the significance of those
races that do take place.
Earlier in the year, Republican businessman Richard Riordan,
once a supporter of Ronald Reagan in California politics, scored
a surprise upset in the Los Angeles mayoral race. With 54
percent of the vote, the GOP captured the mayoralty in the
nation's second-largest city and demonstrated continued
electoral clout after Clinton managed to break the party's 12-
year grip on the presidency.
This result would be repeated in November in the nation's largest
city as former federal prosecutor Rudolph Giuliani had a rematch
with New York City Mayor David Dinkins, who narrowly
defeated him in 1989. Running against the ineffectual liberal in a
city wracked by high taxes, welfare dependency and (difficult as
it may be to remember) escalating violent crime, Giuliani this time
was elected mayor with 51 percent of the vote despite the fact
registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 5
to 1.
Republicans also did well in both gubernatorial races that year.
George Allen, running on a platform of crime reduction, welfare
reform and low taxes, cruised to victory with 58 percent of the
vote in Virginia. Christine Todd Whitman opposed tax-raising
liberal Democrat Gov. Jim Florio in New Jersey. Florio's New
Jersey lost some 100,000 jobs while the nation gained 3.2
million, as he congratulated himself on his courage in raising
taxes. Whitman campaigned on a 30 percent cut in state income
tax rates, a bold supply-side program that recalled the original
Kemp-Roth proposal. She too was elected, narrowly defeating
Florio and (in a development little commented upon due to Ed
Rollins' bone-headed comments about "walking around money")
won 30 percent of the black vote, as she embraced school
choice.
The Republican sweep in 1993 represented a change in political
momentum at a time when Democrats held the White House and
both houses of Congress by solid majorities. It also refuted the
myth of Clinton's invincibility and showed underlying discontent
with his tax increase, liberalism on contentious social issues and
general mendacity. The Republicans would go on to even greater
successes in 1994, making gains at every level of government
while winning control of both houses of Congress and a
supermajority of the nation's governor's mansions. While the
GOP's fortunes have been decidedly mixed since then, the
election results pulled Clinton's administration somewhat to the
right, away from energy taxes and socialized medicine back
toward welfare reform, balanced budgets and even a capital-
gains tax cut.
All of what happened 8 years ago could be undone on
November 6. The Democrats have already won back the
mayor's office in Los Angeles with the Republican not making it
to the run-off and the Democrat Riordan endorsed in the final
round of balloting defeated (although, in fairness, victorious
James Hahn was slightly more conservative and backed by a
majority of the city's Republican voters). Democrats now enjoy
leads in the polls in the race for governor in Virginia and New
Jersey and the race for mayor in New York City.
This could have the same impact on President George W. Bush
that Democratic losses in 1993 had on Bill Clinton. Yet it comes
at a particularly inopportune time as the United States under
President Bush is involved in a military campaign in Afghanistan
in response to terrorist attacks. The stakes are simply higher for
Bush than for Clinton.
Today the Democrats we are dealing with are to the left even of
the party Clinton led during his first year in office. In the place of
David Boren and Sam Nunn we now have senators like Hillary
Clinton and John Corizine. Democratic gains in 2002 do not
bode well for efforts to reduce taxes, contain federal spending
and repeal regulations, as the economy now requires. Nor would
the Democrats be as likely to invest the necessary resources in
military preparedness and intelligence.
In New Jersey, Republican Bret Schundler deserves to be the
next governor. He is a creative, innovative conservative
candidate who has endured relentless sniping from country-club
Republicans led by acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco.
Schundler's impressive record of cutting taxes, controlling crime
and imposing fiscal discipline while mayor of Jersey City
demonstrates the leadership the state has been lacking.
Schundler is a Republican who has been able to win black and
Hispanic votes in the past and has also cut across party lines,
winning two landslide victories in a city where only 6 percent of
the voters are registered Republicans. He has always done better
at the ballot box than in the polls and has made some headway in
recent weeks, holding Democratic Woodbridge Mayor Jim
McGreevey to below 50 percent in most surveys.
If Schundler is unable to pull of an upset, it will be a blow to
conservatives. Conservatives' electoral viability in the Northeast
and some other industrial states has long been questioned.
Conservatives have shown an ability to prevail over moderates in
Republican primaries, as when Al Salvi managed to upset Lt.
Gov. Jim Edgar in the 1996 Illinois Senate GOP primary, but the
general election results have not always been as impressive.
Salvi, for his part, went down to defeat at the hands of left-liberal
Dick Durbin that November.
Former Virginia Attorney General Mark Earley's race against
Democrat Mark Warner is also going to have broader
implications. Earley, a conservative who has stubbornly opposed
a tax referendum supported by many northern Virginia GOP
moderates, is trailing. His defeat would be taken as a rebuke to
Republicans, as the state voted for Bush in 2000 (and also losing
Republican tickets in 1976, 1992 and 1996) and outgoing Gov.
Jim Gilmore is also chairman of the Republican National
Committee.
Michael Bloomberg, the Republican nominee for mayor of New
York City, has far less impressive conservative or GOP
credentials than either Schundler or Earley. Syndicated columnist
Deroy Murdock has called Bloomberg a liberal Democrat who
dressed as a Republican for Halloween. He has generously
bankrolled liberal candidates and contributed to Al Gore. Over
the past decade, 91.5 percent of his campaign contributions have
gone to Democrats.
Yet Bloomberg has Giuliani's endorsement and one has to think
that his business experience has to make him somewhat less of a
statist than Democrat Mark Green, although he has yet to offer
any compelling evidence of this. Whether he is a real Republican
or not, he has the party's nomination and his defeat would be a
defeat for the GOP.
The 2001 off-year elections could shape up to be something
close to a Democratic sweep. It remains to be seen whether the
last waning days of the campaign off sufficient time to reverse
this. In any event, even if this sets the stage for a bad election
cycle in 2002, all may not be lost for President Bush.
W. James Antle III is a senior writer for Enter Stage Right and
can be reached at wjantle@enterstageright.com.
Remember, there was 1993 and 1994, and still Bill Clinton was
reelected.