Hurricane IGOR

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HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...AND A SOLID WHITE
RING ON THE DVORAK ENHANCEMENT HAS INTERMITTENTLY WRAPPED ENTIRELY
AROUND THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP
TO T7.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...AND T6.5 AND T7.0 FROM TWO
FORMS OF THE UW-CIMSS ADT. SINCE THE WHITE RING DOES NOT ENTIRELY
WRAP AROUND THE EYE AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
RAISED TO 135 KT. IGOR REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS LIKELY THAT INTERNAL
DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...WILL INFLUENCE THE
INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 4 BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5 TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
IGOR IS MOVING AT 295/8. THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD MAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE FIRST 3-4 DAYS BUT THEN SHOWS MORE DIVERGENCE ON DAY 5 WITH
THE GFDL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND THE ECMWF WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENDED UP BEING SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE IGOR ENDS UP IN 5 DAYS...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 19.0N 53.9W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.8N 55.0W 135 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.7N 58.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.8N 59.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.5N 63.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 65.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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