Iran's crackdown proves that the 'Twitter revolution' has made things worse

Almost a month on from Iran’s presidential election, it is now time to recognise that the so-called “Twitter revolution” has utterly failed to achieve anything – save dead and injured young Iranians, and up to 2,000 new political prisoners. President Ahmadinejad retains power after a violent crackdown. There has been no recount of the votes. And the blatantly rigged election results have been upheld.

So what went wrong? Well, I would argue that the answer is twofold. Firstly we need to accept that there was a hell of a lot of hype surrounding the online freedom emerging in Iran. Despite what Bobbie Johnson wrote in The Observer, Tweets do not "shake" the political world. More accurately, we have just witnessed a mini dotcom boom and bust: YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Flickr were seen to be "powerful political tools". They aren't. Especially when they are only being used by a relatively small urban elite.

Admittedly, as Leyla Ferani argued in the Telegraph, these websites have "brought down a virtual wall between Iran and the West". She is even right to suggest that Barack Obama initiated the process with his message of goodwill broadcast on YouTube at Nowruz (the Farsi new year holiday). But the Iranian fist remains firmly clenched – Ahmadinejad has attacked Obama's interference, and Britain has once again been denounced as "the little Satan".

Which brings me to my second point. Ahmadinejad's power is largely guaranteed by a virulent form of Islamist-inspired xenophobia. Any hint of Western interference only strengthens his hold. In other words the revolutionary tweets were about as effective as putting a "Free Tibet" bumper sticker on your car circa 1985, and expecting China to suddenly make peace with the Dalai Lama.

I've just been in touch via email with a British-Iranian friend my age, who has relatives in Tehran. What's the atmosphere like out there, I asked? This was his deeply depressing response:

Two weeks ago, five Revolutionary Guards knocked on my uncle, Arash’s door in Tehran. They entered, searched his room, confiscated his laptop and accused him of conspiracy against the state. In front of his family, he was pushed out of his home and into a waiting car. We haven’t heard from his since, but believe he is being held in Evin prison.

The family don’t know what has happened to Arash. But what they do know is this: he attended protests in Tehran and was badly beaten up. He then published photos of the protests on Facebook – and inflammatory statuses – all on a publicly listed profile. What more needs to be said? The "Twitter revolution" wasn't only impotent, it has put Iranians in extreme danger.