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It'll be interesting to see how long it takes to commercialize this technology if it ends up being successful. Anyone know how long it would be between a research breakthrough and when we'd see shipping battery systems based on said breakthrough?

My guess: 3-5 years assuming the research breakthrough can be successfully scaled to mass production.

My guess: 3-5 years assuming the research breakthrough can be successfully scaled to mass production.

And another 3-5 years before someone decides to commercialize it.

1. Do not copy anything that I post outside of the TMC forum without permission.
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Sounds like technology has some of these able to hold 67% after 1000 charges, and I think their goal is 80% after 3000 charges. Man ... I know I'm spending $100k for car technology that is advanced now, but at the same time I know for a fact that it's basically no different than every time I build myself a state-of-the-art computer. It is technology that will be outdated eventually. As much as I definitely desire my Tesla to last me longer than 7 years, I am pretty damn sure that in 7 years the Tesla's that will be coming out then will have battery technology far beyond this and will even put their own original Model S's to shame. I think I'll have at least about 3-4 years before the current technology will look at little outdated. Oh well. I guess for now I'm going to have a little fun with my perf model

Yeah, but there are pesky incidences of asymptoticness like how CPUs have reached a functional limit at around 2 - 2.5 ghz. Beyond this speed heat rises too much to remain a practical choice. Maybe indeed you can only squeeze just so much juice from a turnip, and no more. So much juice from a given battery weight. Someone should start an UhrChart of this, like that National Debt digital counter in Times Square. Has that been taken down due to exceeding building width (hah)? Moore's Law, too, proven non-linear.
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There's an important difference (at least one) between a car and a computer. Many of the high-value parts of a computer are tied to its designed speed: not only the CPU, but the bus clock rate, and consequently the main memory, memory caches, disk caches, and so forth. Plopping in a new CPU doesn't get you the benefits of replacing the whole system.

In contrast, if in 8 years Tesla offers a new 120kWh battery that weighs half of what the 85kWh pack does today, in the same form factor, then every Model S sold today instantly can gain range and performance. The majority of the value of the car doesn't depend on the battery pack--as testified to by the fact that there's no difference between a 40kWh car and an 85kWh car aside from the battery and its inherent limitations.

Of course, there's the question of whether it's rational to invest ~$20k in replacing the battery in an 8-year-old car. In an ICE, there are so many systems that can fail, but in a Model S, there are many fewer wear parts and, so, I think it's reasonable to suppose that frugal owners will be willing to hold this car for 15+ years as a daily driver. Bring on the super-range, low-cost batteries!

Of course, there's the question of whether it's rational to invest ~$20k in replacing the battery in an 8-year-old car. In an ICE, there are so many systems that can fail, but in a Model S, there are many fewer wear parts and, so, I think it's reasonable to suppose that frugal owners will be willing to hold this car for 15+ years as a daily driver. Bring on the super-range, low-cost batteries!

Works for me. My sincere hope is that Tesla doesn't pull a "Singer". Where the first products they make are very durable (as in last forever) and then later they try to get those products back and destroy them so they can sell cheap products that only last a few years.

1. Do not copy anything that I post outside of the TMC forum without permission.
2. Any advice or opinions posted here are to be taken as my personal opinions only. There is no implied warranty, fitness for purpose, or official statements from any company I may have been or am affiliated with.
3. Even the best recommendations are wrong when used inappropriately.