"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross."
-- Sinclair Lewis

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

The Meaning Of Last Night's New Hampshire Primaries

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Chris Pappas

One more little look at last night's primaries from New Hampshire. Because Carol Shea-Porter decided to retire, there was a lot of action in the first district. The Democrats nominated Chris Pappas, a slightly left-of-center candidate favored by the entire New Hampshire political establishment, and the Republicans nominated a mainstream conservative, Eddie Edwards, instead of the far right Trump character, Andy Sanborn. If Pappas wins, as looks likely, he will be the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from New Hampshire. Should Edwards win, he would be the first openly African-American member of Congress from New Hampshire, where just 1.1% of the population is black. Pappas' chance of winning the seat in a district that voted, narrowly, for Trump (and has an R+2 PVI) is 84%... take the bet if you have an opportunity.

With just 4 small precincts left to count today, the biggest news, from a national perspective, is that 62,360 people voted in the Democratic primary, compared to just 47,910 in the Republican primary. THat's very bad news for the GOP nationally. That kind of turnout for the two parties augurs very badly for Republicans in November. In fact, they should expect a midterm bloodbath... and not just in New Hampshire. Cook moved NH-01 from "Lean D" to "Likely D" Anywhere where there are significant numbers of independent voters, the Republicans who have enabled and rubber-stamped Trump will suffer. And that wasn't the only indication of that today. Quinnipiac released a poll that points to the same point.

American voters back Democratic candidates over Republicans 52 - 38 percent in races for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.Independent voters back Democrats over Republicans 50 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll finds.Democrats lead by a narrow 48 - 42 percent among men and by a wide 55 - 35 percent among women. White voters are divided as 48 percent go Republican and 45 percent go Democratic. Democrats lead 84 - 7 percent among black voters and 64 - 22 percent among Hispanic voters.American voters disapprove 72 - 18 percent of the job the U.S. Congress is doing. There is no listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which approves of Congress.Congress should be more of a check on President Donald Trump, voters say 58 - 27 percent. Republicans say 62 - 11 percent that Congress is doing enough to check the president, the only listed group to feel that way.

Does anyone think this will help the GOP? "A collection of powerful conservative groups is mounting an aggressive campaign to install Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan as House speaker or minority leader in the next Congress, according to a half-dozen sources with direct knowledge of the effort. The bid to empower a rabble-rouser despised by much of the House Republican Conference will almost surely fall short. But success for the groups doesn’t necessarily require Jordan to end up in the top leadership spot."

Their effort could deny California Rep. Kevin McCarthy the 218 votes needed to secure the speakership if Republicans retain the House majority-- an outcome conservatives would cheer just as much. And if Republicans lose the majority, the groups intend to demand new leadership, which could wound McCarthy’s bid for minority leader.The effort marks a rare instance of coordination among at least four prominent outside groups as well as a handful of smaller conservative groups with big nationwide followings. They include Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Conservative Leadership Fund, Tea Party Patriots, and For America... Officials with the conservative groups say if they can help raise Jordan’s profile-- pitching him as President Donald Trump’s House enforcer-- they can garner national support and pressure lawmakers to reconsider.

thank gawd that Pelosi and scummer will be there to make sure the caucus doesn't do anything progressive.

It's like if goldman-sachs had a few dozen (out of thousands) really smart, honest associates; but Lloyd blankfein and thousands of other crooks were still there to make sure the fraud kept happening. the few dozen won't make a fucking bit of difference.