Echoes From Davos: Sunken South Korean Warship Raises Risk Alerts

The Korean Peninsula ranked high on most Davos participants' lists of the world's most dangerous flash spots. Reports today that a South Korean warship has sunk at night in part of the Yellow Sea disputed by the two Koreas is a significant raising of the risk level.

The vessel, possibly either a guided-missile-carrying frigate or a corvette (Update: it is a corvette, the Cheonan), with a crew of 104, went under following an explosion in the stern. The cause is unknown but the BBC is reporting that a torpedo was involved. South Korean media say authorities in Seoul are investigating whether it was a torpedo attack from North Korea. (Update: South Korean officials have played down early reports that the sinking may have been the result of North Korea attack, saying it is premature to ascribe a cause to the incident.)

Pyongyang has been building up its coastal defenses, particularly artillery and rocket launchers, since the end of last year. In January, it designated six zones on either side of the peninsula as naval firing zones and its guns shot hundreds of shells out to sea during military exercises, prompting South Korea to open fire on one occasion.

One interpretation of all this is that Pyongyang is trying to keep Seoul and Washington guessing over quite what level of security threat North Korea represents; this year's annual U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises earlier this month were scaled down. Pyongyang may also be looking for a bargaining chip to reestablish the six-nation nuclear talks that have stalled since North Korea pulled out, sensing that Beijing's currently tetchy relations with Washington open up an opportunity that it may be able to exploit with its unpredictability.

Another interpretation is that Pyongyang, in the throes of a long-term succession transition, needs an external distraction from the internal consequences of its disasterous currency reform last November that stoked inflation and caused supply shortages exacerbating the increasingly biting effects of U.N. sanctions imposed last June after missile and nuclear tests.

Deadly maritime exchanges between North and South Korea have occured on several occasions over the years. They are part of the tension of a game in which North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il repeatedly plays a high-risk hand. He looks now to be holding fewer cards than ever. At some point he will overplay his hand.