'Auto, infra, media are must haves; avoid realty'

Anish was someone who has been a disbeliever never liked the India story, India is too expensive; 4200-4100, do you think these are historical levels and we are unlikely to revisit them again soon?

Anish Jhaveri: Well, I get little tickled when I hear names like Greece which contributes 2% of European Union GDP and 3% of total debt of European Union and those factors affecting the Indian story. For God's sake, let's look at things that are happening in this country which are way beyond decoupled from those geographies. At the end of the day, looking at the mess that the world finds itself, especially US and European Union where on the earth, you will find a 10% sustainable growth stories in next five years to seven years, this is the destination. So I very clearly feel that one has very limited choice but not to be bullish on India in the longer term.

It is important to buy but it is equally important to buy perhaps at the right price, what about price points, what do your mind are good entry points and let's specific here with some examples...

Anish Jhaveri: Overall, let's look at Nifty levels itself. Anything around 4950-5000 is a realistic level to be in. We were suppressed for reasons which should not have been attributed to us, and that is about to get decoupled. So we clearly feel that these are the points, no one can time the market so well but these are the points. I am not getting carried away by what has happened but if I look at building a portfolio, any weakness I would start building my portfolio. I would'n wait too long.

Are you of the view that we could reclaim previous highs, 21000 on the Sensex, 6000 on the Nifty very soon, when I say very soon, 6 to 12 months?

Anish Jhaveri: Let's have a little bit of historical perspective here. What happened last year was three cycles converging together unfortunately. You had the commodity cycle, you had the economic cycle and you had the election cycle- which was slightly unfortunate that all the three cycles we had to face at the same time. Going forward if the monsoon does not fail us, you probably will start seeing two things. Supply side constraints hitting us and that actually transferring the power to the service providers and manufacturers, that is the bigger picture to look at. For an economy which is $1 trillion trying to grow it 8% to 10% and you have supply side constraints because let's not forget that corporate India has stopped expanding their capacities and that is now going to play out in the next two to three years' time.

Vikram, I know Anish is making a very strong sales pitch that you should invest your 10% cash also but in your mind, what is a good entry point in terms of levels?

Vikram Kotak: If you look at three to five years' horizon, I completely agree with what Anish says that everything it is a buy time but again if you have to look at the lot of uncertainties around you like our view that inflation numbers, headlines numbers will soon go to 9.5-10%, you will have a liquidity squeeze, it is going to happen in next three or four months' time. We will have slack in the flows both from insurance and the global guys. So there are going to be some entry points available plus as rightly pointed out, the monsoon point that if you have great monsoon, you will have a 5% inflation at the end of next year but if you have bad monsoon, we equally have 8% inflation next year. So there are going to be a few areas which are going to be a part of this. Also we are integrated to global world despite he is 100% right that we need to decouple, there is no doubt about it but if you look at it be a part of the global integrated world and where the flows depend upon the opportunity like Taiwan today is available at 9 times, India is 16 times, so definitely a global investor will try to reallocate his money. That is the point but having said that if you have a three or five-year horizon, well, this is equity market, currency or a bond, all three are at the inflation point where you can see new highs coming anytime soon 6 to 12 months.

Let me gently guide the conversation back to the theme which is post-budget analysis. Now Indian budget is always packed with lot of hay and then sharp needles are always hidden in that hay, OMCs, nothing for OMCs there.