Saturday’s bookend games — the day begins in the Rose Bowl (12:30, ABC) and ends in Autzen (7:30 p.m., ESPN) — will tell us much not only about the participants but about the divisions.

If the Beavers pull out a victory in the Rose Bowl … on top of an Oregon blowout … on top of Stanford toppling USC last week … that would be a pretty good indication of the North’s continued supremacy.

And if the Bruins roll and Arizona goes touchdown-for-touchdown with the Ducks, then maybe the South has, in fact, narrowed what was a significant gap in divisional strength last year.

Last week: 3-4Season: 11-13-1Five-star special: 2-1

* All picks against the spread.* Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (I use the opening lines: Picks are for entertainment purposes, after all.)
* See the picks of BANG’s Jeff Faraudo here.

ARIZONA (plus-26.5) at OREGON: Ducks have averaged 51 points against Arizona the past four years, but they’re stepping up in competition after a series of non-conference cupcakes. How will Marcus Mariota handle himself? What impact with the injuries have on Oregon’s efficiency? And is Arizona’s Matt Scott up to the task? The over/under is a whopping 77.5 — and too low. Pick: Arizona.

OREGON STATE (plus-11) at UCLA: I’m wary of the Beavers for two reasons: Their lack of activity, and Wisconsin’s mediocrity. The Badgers opened with a close win over Northern Iowa and last week nearly lost at home to Utah State. We may have read too much into OSU’s performance on Sept. 8. Pick: UCLA.

CAL (plus-17) at USC: There’s zero evidence to suggest Cal has the personnel and mettle to exploit the Trojans’ weaknesses the way Stanford did. Just look at the 2009-11 results: Stanford beats USC, and USC dominates Cal (to the tune of a 108-26 combined score). But 17 points seems a tad much. Pick: Cal.

UTAH (plus-3) at ARIZONA STATE: The line has jumped to 7 despite Utah rising to the challenge against BYU and Arizona State stumbling against Missouri’s backup quarterback. One reason for the point-spread spike may be ASU’s big win in SLC last year, but Jon Hays is a better QB now than he was then. When it comes to ASU’s turnaround, I remain a non-believer. Pick: Utah.

COLORADO (plus-14.5) at WASHINGTON STATE: The Cougars haven’t been a multi-touchdown favorite in a conference game in years — the line has jumped to 17 — and should dominate the only winless AQ-conference team in the country. Pick: Washington State.

Straight-up winners: Oregon, UCLA, USC, Utah and Washington State.

Five-star special: My first choice would be the over-77.5 in Eugene, but since the five-star pick is about teams, not numbers, I’ll take Washington State. Colorado is just that bad.

“There’s zero evidence to suggest Cal has the personnel and mettle to exploit the Trojans’ weaknesses the way Stanford did. Just look at the 2009-11 results”

Using past results to make an argument for today in college football is not very smart (Stanford 41 point underdogs at USC ring a bell?).

As for Cal’s personnel. Did you watch the Cal Ohio St. game? Cal had BETTER personnel than Ohio St and outplayed Ohio St in Ohio.
Cal’s starting DBs each should see time in the NFL: Steve Williams, Marc Anthony. I don’t believe USC, and for that matter Stanford, has a LB as talented as Brennan Scarlet. USC’s offensive line had a tough time against Stanford’s D Line. How will they do against a more talented D Line?

At least you picked the right team to cover Jon, its a start I guess.

Pick of the week: Oregon St. plus 11. Nice try Jon.

macbaldy

@rotfogel: new rules, huh? Jon cites (and you quote) a distinct period of 2009-2011 but you invoke 2007. After that, nothing but loose change. Well, good luck on Saturday anyway. Clue: fantasy isn’t actually equivalent to reality.

The notion that Kal has a some great D-line is laughable. It sure held Nevada in check!

RobleSteve

Cal fans are delusional. Your D line is better than Stanford’s? In what world?! How many rushing yards did you give up to Nevada? Good luck not getting killed and coming out healthy after Saturday’s game.

tmds

@Rotthoughtfog-#2, History is one of the main resources one can use in predicting college football outcomes, esp. with respect to player match-ups – not distant history mind you, but recent history – since players will often face each other 2-3-4-sometimes even 5 times in their college careers…

Also, in last week’s Utah-BYU game, it was important for me to know/determine from past history that Utah’s back-up, 2nd string QB J Hays, is basically on a par with injured, (out-for-year) starter Jordan Wynn, so i could opine there would be little to no drop-off from that position, etc etc and so on…

Furthermore, coaching match-ups frequently go back further, for instance Utah’s Kyle Whittingham faced BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall in that “brotherly” rivalry for the 8th time — IMO, it was very significant for me to know that KW was 4-1 (and now is 5-1) as an underdog versus BM.

In short : …if you don’t know your history, you’re condemned to repeat it’s mistakes
(and i’d say that works the same in real life).

Mad dogs favs n piks :

Arizona @ Oregon -26.5/22.5/21.5 (the line opened O -26.5 but almost immediately was bet down a FG ! to -23.5, and it’s still falling, the lowest i’ve seen is -21.5)

Oregon has won the last 4 games by 25, 19, 3 in OT, and 10, and lost by 10 in ’07.

Arizona’s HC Rich Rodriguez has his WVirg coaching staff almost in tact at Tucson… Sr QB Matt Scott is a natural fit for Rich Rod’s system and the OL returns intact with good depth covering a couple early injuries… The defense has some solid holdovers from the Stoops’ yrs, such as LB Jake Fischer, CBs Bondurant and Richardson, and a solid DL anchored by NT Sione Tuihalamaka. Clearly the atmosphere and attitude is upbeat now that they’re off to a 3-0 start, esp. with a convincing win over Ok St 59-38 under their belts…
Meanwhile, Oregon’s only quality opponent has been Fresno St whom they did not really beat badly 42-25 (i differ with JW who for some reason said on another post that the Dogs are dogmeat – prolly just a flippant comment from someone who doesn’t do their homework).
Oregon has lost their senior/junior leadership from 2-3 key units – #1) LG Carson York, 3rd Tm AA as Fr and 1st Tm P10 in’10; #2) FS John Boyett, 1st Tm AA as Fr, 2nd Tm P10 in ’10, and 1st Tm last yr, both are out for the year (OFY); also Jr WR Josh Huff, 2nd leading returning receiver after D’AT, reportedly has a dinged knee for this game, altho he’s listed probable to play.
Note : Oregon has failed to cover the spread in all three of their non-conference cupcake games.

I’m not sure i’d take the lower amount of pts (21-22) available now, but i bet RR and the Cats keep it close and especially within the 24pts i got.

Oregon St @ UCLA – 11.5/10/7 (the line opened UCLA -11.5 and has been dropping steadily since, to it’s current -7.5/-7 range. I don’t know why Jon W discounts the Beaver because of their bye week ? My guess is that a good HC like Mike Riley will use the week off to his advantage and will have given his players plenty of time to scout and game-plan for the Brubares — The lack of a game in the opening week because of hurricane Isaac certainly didn’t hinder their effort vs the Badgers in week 2. The last 3 games in this series have been close, 8 pts or less separating the 2 teams; and 4 yrs ago, the Beavers trounced the Bruins in the Rose Bowl, 34-6 !

i fully expect this to be a winning season for the rodents, and Mike Riley is 29-17 ATS (63.1%) after a straight up win in his winning seasons at Corvalis since 2003.

IMO Oregon St probably has the 2nd best defense in the P12, second only behind you-know-who. (Note : Utah might be a close 3rd ?)… CB Jordan Poyer is a definite lock as a top round draft choice, and Riley has assembled a group of outstanding DBs, LBs(Welch, Unga, Doctor) and DL( Crichton, Seumalo, Wynn) who are capable of shutting down alotta offenses. Poyer is also a dynamic game-breaker as a KR/PR. The Beavers are one of the most experienced teams in the league and most of the key guys who were injured last year are back with a vengence. QB Sean Mannion is probably the best QB you’ve never heard of and he has the top, and 3rd leading receivers from last yr, Wheaton and Bishop, back this yr. Malcolm Agnew is a RB with explosive potential and he runs behind a solid OL.

UCLA of course has a solid win vs then top 20 ranked Nebraska. But i thought their defense looked a bit porous vs Rice, even as they got ahead early, they weren’t able to close out the game til the 2nd half. Also, QB Hundley is a quality athlete, but will he, as a rookie, RS Frosh, be able to move the O consistently against a quality D that’s been focused on him and his team for 2 weeks now. In conclusion, i also question if the Bruins have successfully replaced their vocal leader on D, LB Pat Larimore who, preseason, decided to retire due to repeated injs (concussions?).

So, i gotta love the +10 pts i got on the Beaver side. (ps – if i didn’t love the Beavers in this one, i’d seriously consider going for the “middle” with the line moving down to the UCLA -7 range.)

Cal @ USC -17/16/17 (USC opened -17, it dropped a point early, and since then has moved back up)

i was impressed with the coaching job Tedsel did in keeping up with Urban Meyer and the speedy Buckeyes despite major injuries to his LB and OL corps. Poor Bare bois don’t know when they got it good… The unveiling of Brendan Bigelow was a revelation. If he continues to produce and shine that will take alotta pressure off Sofele, the inconsistent Maynard and the valiant Allen. And the defense looked very solid and dangerous despite giving up 35 pts. Cal might have the fourth best D in the league, even with all the injuries.

And $C ? Will they implode ? i wonder what’s their collective mindset at this point, with all their fantasies of a BCS trophy trashed. Will Cal be able to exploit the cracks in the trojan’s collective psyche, if they have one – a psyche, i mean – plus the lack of depth and a run game ? i don’t know because the hue and cry for Teds head must effect the team too…

i took the 17 pts, but really who cares…! i mean, either way it’s a win-win game for me taking the 17pts… if $C loses i win big, if UCB loses i still win spiritually speaking… i wish i could bet them both to lose…haha.

Colorado @ WSU -14.5/20/21 (big line movement to the Cougar side – nobody wants the Buffalo – their massive extinction is nearly complete)

So far i’m not impressed by Mike Leach and his “air raid” offense. He has a great pair of QBs in Tuel and Halliday, plenty of dynamic wrs. But no run game to speak of and a questionable defense at best. And i have no idea what’s goin on in Boulder. Looks like a program in complete disarray. Anything can happen in these types of games = NO BET.

Utah @ ASU -3/-7/-7.5/-7 (the line opened SunDevils – a FG and now it’s around – a TD)

The Devils looked good against Illinois and @ Missouri, albeit both opponents were without their starting QBs. ASU beat the Utes in SLC last yr 35-14 ! And IMO the Devils have improved overall with HC Todd Graham who seems to have righted the sinking ship in the wake of Erickson’s laisez faire coaching style. The team appears to be playing a more disciplined, focused brand of football. Normally i like the team with the best D and the Ute D looked outstanding in stopping BYU after the debacle in Logan the previous week. And they’re getting at least 7pts right now. But i’m not sure which version of these two teams will show up Saturday nite = NO BET – altho if i get another point or so, i might bite on the Utes.

gules rampant

Let’s hear from REDBIRD/ROTVOGEL after the game with USC! Eat some humble pie and give some to the singer! Scarlet? Rotvogel? Wow, there’s a couple guys who got the wrong name for weeniedom!..could there be a rejection letter there somewhere?

Not really sure where rotfogel was coming from with those ill-advised comments comparing the Stanford D-Line and the Kal’s D-Line. I have yet to read or hear one person (analyst or reporter) that hasn’t touted the Stanford D-Line as being tops in the Pac-12 and at least at or near tops in the country. But really?, to deflate your own assertion by claiming Brandon Scarlett? really?, was better than any LB? on the Stanford D-Line? really!? That was an admission on your part that you were not serious. Alas, what can you expect from someone matriculating from weenieVille?

rotfogel

Brennan Scarlett will have a better NFL career than any LB on Stanford. He’s just a more talented player than anyone LB Stanford has. Am I delusional? I also said Desmond Bishop was the best MLB while he was playing at Cal. How’s Green Bay’s defense without their best LB? BTW, he was a 6th round pick.

I like Chase Thomas and the other guy but just watch, Scarlett will be a better pro. I really like Stanford Offensive Line if it makes any crying babies feel better? Now that module of Stanford has some real talent on it. And don’t get me wrong, Stanford does has some nice players in their front seven, just not as talented as Cal’s is, that’s all I’m saying and I will reiterate, none of them are close to as good or talented as Scarlett is/will be.

http://www.wireddevils.com/ Wired Devils

Big news which could have an impact on the Pac-12 / DirecTV negotiations. Time Warner Cable has finally signed a deal with the NFL. This will make it a LOT easier for DTV customers to switch to TWC without losing significant content. I wonder if this will increase the pressure on DTV to add the Pac-12 network?

Bootlegger

@rotfogel: No one really cares about what players will do in the NFL. We are talking about a college football game this weekend. And, the fact is that Stanford’s D line has been awesome this season — look at the running yardage of its opponents. And in total defense Stanford is 4th in the Pac-10 versus Kal’s 10th. On what basis can you possible claim that Kal has a better D line? Or that Scarlett is better than Thomas, Skov etc.?

You can reiterate all you want, but saying the same thing over and over again without providing any facts or logic does not make it true.

BTW, no one here is crying, we are just point out that you are making idiotic statements. Sorry if that hurts your feelings (as it obviously does), but maybe you should think before posting.

http://www.voteobrien.org/login.asp Cardinal Rule

@rotfogel who wrote: ….”Stanford does has (sic) some nice players in their front seven, just not as talented as Cal’s is,…”

Hold that thought… until October 20, 2012.

Harold

Wired Devils, the deal Time Warner signed was the the NFL Channel, not the NFL Sunday Ticket package of all the games. That remains a DirecTV exclusive through 2014, I believe.

rotfogel

@Cardinal Rule.

October 20 it is. Cal has very little shot of LOSING that game. Mark my words.

rotfogel

@BootLegger
It really does hurt my feelings, I am very hurt. It hurts. You’re right and you’re very smart to boot (get it to boot, you’re name is bootlegger).

I like Stanford, but you’ll see as will who ever else is watching the game on October 20th that Cal is the better team this year.

But, like everything else written about the future games, this is just my opinion, you may not like it and you’ll create your arguments based on past results, which is generally a smart thing to do. Unfortunately for you, football is not science, especially trying to predict it. Predicting college outcomes has more to do with the mysterious ‘it’ factor, talent and momentum than past results.

http://Utefans.net Utahute72

Let me help you out tdms. After the Utes inserted Hays in the USU game they went 20-7 in the rest of regulation. In the BYU game utah was up 24-7 before they started going into a protect the football shell. IF, and it’s big IF I agree, Kyle lets Brian Johnson run the offense the whole game it will be closer than most people think.

Bootlegger

@Rotfogel: Hmmm, if you don’t look at past performance, then you are pretty much admitting that your opinions are based on fantasy. Unfortunately, for you the result is that you say silly things like Kal’s D line is better than Stanford when all evidence points to the contrary. And as for your ruminations about momentum etc., it is really difficult to see how those factors favor Kal, but as long as you are making things up, you might as well make that stuff up also.

rotfogel

@Bootlegger,
I think you may need your diapers changed son.

OK past, sure let’s go on that tangent….

who had the BEST defense in the pac 12 last year? Huh Charlie? Huh Chuck…Cal did you moron.

How about players? Take a look at recent 1st rounders by Cal…ON THE DEFENSIVE LINE YOU IDIOT!…

As for this season, USC’s O Line really misses Matt Kalil and Stanford proved it. Other than that, didn’t San Jose St move the ball fairly well against Stanford. Talk to me in a month and tell me who has the better front 7.

Scott

We talk about best defenses by points.

Pluto99

rotfogel – in 2011, Stanford was #2 in the Pac12 in scoring defense (21.9 pts/gam), Cal was #4 (24.2 pts/game). The only reason Stanford wasn’t #1 is that Utah didn’t play Oregon and Stanford, so their defense stats are skewed. In 2010, Stanford was #1 in the Pac12 (17.4 pts/game, with Skov in the lineup) and Cal was #3 at (22.6 pts.game).

I’m sure Cal has some stats that are better than Stanford over those years, but where the rubber meets the road, Stanford has been superior recently. Prior to 2010, Cal certainly had the better defense. But as you noted, the players on those teams are gone to the NFL.

StanTheMan

@rotfogel – applaud the enthusiasm but you might want to have SOME basis in fact. YPG is not a great measure of defense. PPG is where it’s at.

As for talent on the field, you may well be right that Scarlett will be a better NFL player than any of Stanford’s front 7. After all, Cal has more players in the NFL than Stanford. But this is just a stunning indictment of Avis Tedfraud’s complete inability to get his talent to perform. However, when you start to expand beyond one player to a complete front 7, you’ve really gone off the deep end. I hope you are willing to come back to this board on Saturday evening/Sunday morning and eat crow for this statement after U$C goes up and down the field on Cal’s defense today.

I predict U$C will have more points and yardage by halftime today than they had all game last Saturday. Heck, U$C’s defense & special teams might outscore their offense too.

Symphony Sid

“Five-star special: My first choice would be the over-77.5 in Eugene, but since the five-star pick is about teams, not numbers, I’ll take Washington State. Colorado is just that bad.”

Colorado is now 1-0 in conference play and is sporting a 2 game Pac-12 road winning streak going back to last year’s Utah finale. They were down 31-14 in Spokane a few seconds into the 4th quarter today, scored 21 points in that quarter and only gave up another field goal the rest of the way, gutting out a 35-34 victory.

Doesn’t mean the humiliation of the last three weeks goes away, but Embree’s guys are still on board. Look out, UCLA.

Nice pick, Jon.

StanTheMan

Well I was close. U$C had only 17 pts but only 260 Yds at half.

300 Yds rushing? How’s that Scarlett guy lookin right about now rot-head?

Symphony Sid

My bad. Pullman, not Spokane. I believe that’s the first time CU has ever played in that stadium.

Bootlegger

@rotfogel: It is odd how you equate anyone who disagrees with you to being a crying baby. Oh well, you are are the one who is crying now, after you got spanked by USC. Let’s see no sacks by the Bares and a dominant running performance by USC. Really, you still think Kal has a great D? You really think it is better than Stanford’s? The funny thing is, that this result was obvious to anyone who had seen the teams’ performance. But since you claim that prior results are meaningless (!), it is not surprising that you missed it.

Mk92

Uh oh….wilner may be looking at an 0fer

Dan

OMG this may be the worst display of football knowledge I have ever seen. Anyone who made these awful predictions want to come back in and explain themselves? Otherwise, this is all just worthless spam based upon either ignorance or blind loyalty.

Robber Baron

Wow! All but one wrong (and that was only by 1 point). Three straight-up wrong!