Reds Notes: Duvall, Deadline, Bailey

Reds outfielder Adam Duvall is drawing plenty of interest in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says (video link). The 29-year-old Duvall likely wouldn’t bring back a lot in a trade, Rosenthal notes, as he’s amid a down season in terms of bottom-line results. After hitting 30-plus home runs in both 2016 and ’17, a two-year stretch in which he slashed .245/.299/.489 in 1,255 plate appearances, Duvall has recorded a .201/.282/.406 line in 262 PAs this season. But with 12 homers and a .205 ISO, Duvall has continued to offer power, and he’s walking at a career-best rate (9.9 percent). Further, as Rosenthal points out, Duvall has encountered some bad luck. The 29-year-old’s batting average on balls in play is just .230, 40 points below his career mark, and he entered Sunday with an impressive .356 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant). Duvall’s also cheap ($645K) and won’t make his first of three potential trips through arbitration until the upcoming offseason.

It’s possible the Reds will move Duvall and/or other veterans, though the club’s also open to trading for big league help prior to the deadline. Even though the Reds are 31-45 and nowhere near contention, general manager Dick Williams said Saturday (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “we are open to adding. We’re going to start moving into the building mode at the deadline and this offseason.” The goal, according to Williams, is to acquire “a controllable asset that would be with us for a few years.” At the same time, the Reds “have a pretty clear idea going into this deadline on players we’re willing to move if the right deal comes along,” Williams added. Fay goes on to analyze several veterans whom the team could deal in the next several weeks.

Right-hander Homer Bailey is in for “a lengthy rehab” stint, per interim manager Jim Riggleman (via Jeff Wallner of MLB.com). While the right knee inflammation that sent Bailey to the disabled list on June 2 seems to have subsided, the Reds are concerned with his results. “His health is good,” said Riggleman. “It’s more about how the ball’s coming out of his hand and the quality of the pitches. He feels pretty good.” Pitching at the Triple-A level Saturday, Bailey gave up seven earned runs on 10 hits over six innings. Before his DL placement, Bailey worked to a 6.68 ERA/6.23 FIP over 62 innings with the Reds, leading them to demote him to a relief role at the end of May. The 32-year-old hasn’t come out of the bullpen for the club yet, though, as he went on the DL shortly after the demotion. Bailey’s in the second-last season of a six-year, $105MM deal, a contract that hasn’t paid off for the Reds.

That still doesn’t get you a top 100 caliber prospect as they’re valued today. Maybe a couple top 10 organization ranked players, but teams don’t give one of their top 3 prospects unless it’s a team altering player. Duvall is not that for a contending team.

Dick, you are eons away from the building phase. How many prospects have panned out for Cincy over the past two years?
Mahle- looks like a decent three or four
Jose Peraza, great glove, mediocre bat
Jesse Winker, average bat now, still needs work
Romano and Castillo- awful this year

You need more than a few role players to begin the building phase. Look at every club that has had a successful rebuild
Astros had Correa, Springer, McCullers, Altuve before they brought in Reddick, McCann, Morton, Verlander
Philly had Odubel, Nola, Cesar and hoskins before the got Arrieta and Santana
The Cubs had Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, Bryant before they brought in Zobrist or Q
Atlanta STILL hasnt even made much noise in regard to bringing in vets

Milwaukee could theoretically be considered an exception, although they fared very well on buy low pieces like Pina, Aguilar, Thames, Guerra, Anderson on top of Shaw before adding Yelich and Cain

Bottom line:Iglesias, Hughes, Lorenzen, Duvall, Scooter, Schebler maybe Harvey and Hamilton if they can get anything and I would argue DeSclafani still should be traded and at least two prospects need to step up as core pieces before you can even think about building it. Doing so will rush the rebuild and risk it fizzling out (Minnesota).

Pump the breaks son. “Good starting pitchers” can be very subjective. If you’re referring to aces then okay maybe. Two aces put any team in contention. Simply good #2 or #3 pitchers and they don’t come close. The Reds have holes all over the place. They’re still at least 2-3 years away, especially for sustained success.

Are you serious? Two SPers with ERAs of 4.09? You’re dreaming. We’re not even halfway thru the season yet and you’re 10 games out of the 2nd wild card. If they keep pace then you’ll be out of it by 20+ games. deSclafani had a 2.9 WAR last year. You really think that 2 more of him gets you in the playoffs? I love the positivity. You have to have it. God knows I did for the Astros lean years, but if I were you I’d hope for it to get worse so you can get better.

Yeah really owned the reds this weekend. Yeah buddy I’m a cubs fan I can see the decline realistically. Brewers are doing what the cubs did 3 years ago. They have the system to get a big name player to take them to the next level. And besides that national league stands no chance against the Yankees/Astros

The twins didn’t give up any worthwhile prospects in “rushing” their rebuild. They could’ve perhaps sold off another player or two IE dozier or Ervin Santana but I don’t think going out and signing LoMO and lance Lynn and dealing a lotto ticket for Odorizzi was a huge setback.

I don’t really think they blocked anyone by bringing in Odorizzi, Morrison, reed or Lynn. They’re all on one or two year deals. They all haven’t been homerun signings but they aren’t long term commitments. It’d be hard for a team who made the playoffs last year in a division with 3 other rebuilding teams to not take a shot. I think the impact of these decisions is relatively minimal in the long run.

Yankees send Clint Frazier-Domingo Acevedo-Juan De Paula for Amir Garrett-Tyler Mahle-Billy Hamilton. Yankees send Hamilton to Scranton to learn how to get on base, call him up to takeover CF, moving Hicks to LF. Gardner rides the bench. Garrett is the power lefty for the BP and Mahle the fifth starter. Probably Yankees need to add to this a little.

That’s very optimistic to think that, after being able to pick Joey Votto’s brain for 6 years, Hamilton will suddenly acquire on base skills in AAA. Also, Mahle isn’t going anywhere. Yankees can do better than a guy who’s slowly working things out in his rookie campaign.

Reds are set up to have a good offensive team for the foreseeable future, whether Gennett is there or not. Bullpen is pretty good so if they were to acquire 2 starting pitchers by opening day 2019 they’d be a wild card contender. If they deal Iglesias at the deadline for near MLB ready, high ceiling starters then they’re on to something

Dude the Reds are way more then 2 starting pitchers away from being “a wild card contender” There’s being a homer, then there’s being way too much a homer. The Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Nats, Cubs, and even the Rockies are so much better it’s not close.

I do think the Reds can contend soon. Their offense is really good. It’s just that their pitching is atrocious. The problem with that though is that they almost need a complete overhaul in that department, which could take a while

Their bullpen is nasty. They don’t need 2 aces like I read above, just 2 quality starters who can give them 6 innings a game. That’s enough to contend. I hope that they plan on doing more than contending. To make a real run they’re probably 3 years away. Their high draft picks need to develop. Senzel, Trammell, India, Green, and Downs.

Remove the games Homer and Brandon Finnegan have started and the Reds are above .500, albeit barely. Reds have a top half offense WITH Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall poorly impersonating major league hitters. You’re telling me 2 good pitchers added to that lineup with a really solid pen couldn’t win 85 games? It’s optimistic no doubt but I’m not saying the Orioles are going to win the world series or something.

You are sold that the Rockies are better long term than the Reds? Think that pitching in THAT park will be playing caliber? 25 years and they still haven’t been able to pitch consistently. The Braves and Phillies are talented and playing well but you need more than 1/2 season to claim they’re a powerhouse.

Nobody will touch Bailey or his contract. His performance has eroded so dramatically that the Reds are at a crossroads over whether to just eat the last year and a half and DFA him, or continue to try to use him differently. Personally I wouldn’t even want to use him in mop up duty. Bailey is just flat out ineffective in every sense of the word.