Yeomans Work

Donald Trump Jr.

Hope Hicks, Trump’s then-communications director, appeared before the House Intelligence Committee for a voluntary nine-hour interview this week.

The headline was that she admitted having told white lies on behalf of Trump, but never lied about matters material to the Russia investigation. That leaves us with the head-scratching conundrum of what to believe when a liar admits to lying on behalf of a liar, but insists the lies were not material to the investigation. The questions abound. What is the difference between a material lie and a white lie? If an admitted liar insists her lies were not material, is she lying? Is that a white lie or a material lie? How does she know whether or not her lies were material unless she knows the full scope of the investigation? And, of course, why is a 29-year old public relations flack with a background in fashion the White House communications director?

In recent days, the rumor has zinged around Washington that Trump will fire Mueller on December 22, as Congress leaves town for the holidays.

The speculation is fueled by the notion that the investigation is nearing a crescendo that requires Trump to act now or face dire consequences. The accumulating evidence against Trump, his family, and his allies, complemented by a barrage of right-wing media and Congressional assaults on the legitimacy of Mueller and the FBI, buttress the notion that Trump’s allies are preparing the ground for imminent bloodletting.

I don’t buy it. Predicting Trump’s behavior is a fool’s errand. He acts impulsively, and often seems not to know in the morning what he’ll do in the afternoon. But, firing Mueller would provoke an existential crisis for Trump’s presidency. Politicians on the left and right have cited Mueller’s firing as a red line that Trump cannot cross without provoking a constitutional crisis that will put him on the path to impeachment. Trump may calculate, with some reason, that many on the right will back down, and that Republican leaders in the House will not follow through on impeachment proceedings. Regardless, firing Mueller would constitute a declaration by Trump that he is above the law. It would give the public reason to rally even more furiously in opposition to him. Firing Mueller, therefore, would be a high-stakes roll of the dice. Read more

As the Russia investigations advance, it becomes important to think about the denouement.

There will be time to discuss the merits of indictments and impeachment. For now, though, it is essential to think about preparing the public to absorb what emerges from Special Counsel Mueller and Congress. Most of this burden rests with Congress.

A troubling scenario holds that shockingly bad things emerge from the investigations and an uninformed, ill-prepared and overwhelmed public simply shakes them off as more noise in this already loud era. Trump has been working to make this happen by demeaning regularly the entire Russia enterprise as a hoax and a witch-hunt. His strategy seems clear: undermine the legitimacy of the investigations in preparation for the bad news to come. Read more

Recent reporting that Michael G. Flynn, the son of Trump’s short-tenured National Security Advisor, likely is a subject of Robert Mueller’s investigation highlighted again that running a political campaign or a country like a family business imports unique risks.

This is a lesson that Donald Trump also seems determined to teach us. Indeed, the kids (including kids-in-law) have long seemed to be the thread that Mueller and Congress will pull to unravel the Trump presidency.

The danger is that none of us is fully rational about our kids’ abilities or detached from their pain. An ignorant man, such as Trump, is particularly prone to assuming that a talented family member can handle any challenge. Jared Kushner – a man whose real life abilities feature inheriting money, buying a small newspaper, and accumulating crushing debt to pay too much for real estate while wearing monochromatic suits and ties and refraining from speaking – can bring peace to the Middle East, reinvent government, and conduct diplomacy with China and Mexico. Read more

Reports of President Trump’s phone call to Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley to concur in the wonders of ethanol (please!) raised anew the principle question about Trump’s namesake son, Donald Jr.; is he playing with a full deck?

Trump Jr. has agreed to a closed-door interview with Judiciary Committee staffers and any senators who wish to attend. This is, in the technical jargon of the law, a really dumb idea. The Committee wants to ask Trump about the June 2016 meeting that he orchestrated with an assortment of Russians, Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner. Trump Jr. has already lied in public about the meeting, demonstrating a disconcerting level of cluelessness about his situation. In the interview, he will either tell more lies, withdraw his consent to cooperate, assert his Fifth Amendment privilege to remain silent, or inculpate himself in a conspiracy to invite Russian interference in the 2016 election. Which of these does he think helps his chances of staying out of jail? Or, is he willing to let it all hang out because of confidence that Dad will pardon him in the end? Read more