Examining a Hunter Pence Trade

The folks over at ESPN’s SweetSpot network do some of the best and most-informed short-form baseball writing on the internet, and not only the main page but the network ofteam-centered blogs are must-reads for the kind of baseball fan that spends afternoons two months before the trade deadline speculating on what blockbuster deals might put a contender over the top for the stretch run. However, one SweetSpot writer, Dave Schoenfeld, posted something this morning that caused a momentary panic in the Phillies’ internet community, namely, that the Phillies and Astros would both be better served by a trade of Hunter Pence for Domonic Brown and Jarred Cosart. I respect Schoenfeld quite a bit, but in this case, I’ll have to respectfully disagree with him. Here’s why:

First of all, the basic assertion, that the Astros should trade Pence and the Phillies would be better off trading for Pence, is absolutely correct, and is hardly a novel idea. Pence is an athletic, right-handed-hitting corner outfielder who is under team control for the next two-and-a-half seasons–precisely the type of player the Phillies could use. The Phillies, between Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Brown, John Mayberry, Ross Gload, and Ben Francisco, do not have a single good defensive outfielder among them. Ibanez, for a long time, battled left field the way one might wrestle a crocodile, but he’s not getting to as many balls as he used to and those balls he misses, because of his position, go for extra bases. Victorino and Francisco are both very good athletes with outstanding throwing arms but neither is adept at tracking fly balls, particularly for people who are paid to do so for a living. Gload is a first baseman. And Brown and Mayberry have the athleticism to play the outfield well, but neither has been around long enough to develop much of a track record.

But where Pence would fit in best is as a hitter. In parts of five major league seasons, Pence has consistently shown the ability to hit 25 home runs a year from the right side and hit for a decent average, even if his stolen base totals (a career 56-for-91) are truly dreadful and even if he doesn’t show tremendous plate discipline. But while Pence isn’t a great player, he’s certainly good enough–assuming Chase Utley returns to health, a team with the Phillies’ pitching and infield defense doesn’t need Pence to hit like Mickey Mantle to win the pennant. The advantages of trading for Pence are clear, and while I won’t go into tremendous depth about it, Eric Seidman did a couple weeks ago, so if you’re not as familiar with the Astros’ right fielder, feel free to go read this.

But to trade Brown and Cosart to get him? Pence would have to hit, if not like Mickey Mantle, than at least like Carlos Gonzalez or Matt Holliday, and he’s simply not that type of player. Let’s compare Pence to Jayson Werth. Both are athletic, right-handed corner outfielders, and if the Phillies traded for Pence today, they’d get him for his age 28-through-30 seasons, or the same age Werth was his first three seasons in Philadelphia.

Over that time, Werth averaged a batting average/OBP/slugging line of .276/.376/.494, and if you include 2010, those numbers go up to .282/.380/.506–that’s 15.3 wins above replacement, per Baseball Reference, in three and a half seasons of everyday play. Pence, from Opening Day 2008 to today, in almost the exact same number of plate appearances as Werth from 2007 to 2010, posted a .280/.331/.466, stealing 15 fewer bases and being caught 22 more times, and posting an OPS+ 18 points lower than Werth’s. If we’re going to talk about the numbers of an elite corner outfielder, Pence falls short.

Granted, some of those players, most likely Drabek, could mature into stars, but it’s unlikely, as most of the rest have fallen on hard times either by injury or development problems. And that’s why the Phillies’ trade strategy has worked so well: they’ve wound up giving up relatively little to get a lot.

I brought this very topic up in an idle conversation I was having over the weekend, and given Houston’s rather dire situation, and that Pence will most likely leave as a free agent before they contend, the Astros might as well deal him now. And I said specifically that I’d give up any prospect in the Phillies’ system apart from Brown, Cosart, or Jonathan Singleton to get him.

Why are Brown and Cosart different? Well, they’re better than the detritus the Phillies jettisoned to get the likes of Blanton, Lee, and so on. Say what you will about Brown, but he’s still only 23, was relatively late to serious amateur baseball, and in high-A ball or better, has a career OPS of .900 or better at every level. He’s been a top-50 prospect three years running and still hasn’t really gotten his chance. If we’re counting on Hunter Pence to deliver a .280/.330/.450 line (again, a good-but-not-great line for a corner outfielder) for $8 million or more (which he’ll probably get from arbitration), I’m not convinced Dom Brown couldn’t do that or even better for the league minimum–in fact, I wouldn’t trade Brown for Pence straight up.

Throw in Cosart, and it gets worse. A 6-foot-3 Texan who turns 21 tomorrow, Cosart was, like Brown, a late-round draft-and-follow prospect who has been lights-out everywhere he’s gone in the minor leagues. He’s a hard-throwing righty with good control who strikes out a batter per inning. Cosart ranked at No. 70 on the Baseball America list before this season, and while he’s still a couple seasons away, he could be the eventual replacement for Roy Oswalt or even Roy Halladay, if he leaves after 2013. Guys who project to be top-line starters, as Cosart does, are hard to come by, and it should take a better player than Pence to convince Ruben Amaro to give him up.

Ultimately, I think Pence can be had for a cheaper price than Brown and/or Cosart, and I’d be happy for the Phillies to get him. I like what he represents: a right-handed bat, decent outfield defense, and youth. But that we’re calling trading for a 28-year-old five-year veteran a youth movement is troubling.

The big issue here is not competing in 2011. The Phillies have proved that they can do that without doing a thing–it’s competing in 2014, when the Lakewood BlueClaws team that won the South Atlantic League last year puts on takes a shot at the NL East. The Phillies are by far the oldest team among the oldest teams in baseball (Got that wrong the first time–it had been true for the past 2 or 3 years), and while there’s something to be said for worrying about today and letting tomorrow take care of itself, I’d be cautious about overpaying in prospects for a stopgap. After all, without the likes of Brown and Cosart, there may be no one around to take care of 2014 for you.

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0 Comments

I respectfully disagree with your comment about Shane not being a good defensive outfielder. Apparently i’m not the only one who disagrees with that, since he has won 3 consecutive gold gloves, the first Phillies outfielder to do that since the Secretary of Defense.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Shane Victorino, owner of 3 consecutive Gold Gloves and a cannon of an arm, is not “adept at tracking fly balls”? Really? I love Phillies Nation but you get knocked down a peg for that one. Shane isn’t exactly an offensive force but criticizing his defense is a bit amateurish.

I was hoping that a throwaway comment that had very little to do with the thesis of the post (why trading Brown for Pence is a bad idea) wasn’t going to be the focus of these comments, but here’s why I said that: I don’t dispute that Victorino is blindingly fast or possessed of a great throwing arm, or even that, as a three-time Gold Glove winner, he has a reputation as a great defensive outfielder.
However, he doesn’t read fly balls well, which reduces the amount of ground he can cover. This is not only reflected in the advanced stats, but you can tell just by watching the way he’ll change directions while in pursuit of a ball, or by how rarely he seems to settle comfortably underneath a ball for an easy catch. He got away with this because of his speed when he was playing right, where he was, to be fair, absolutely outstanding, but it’s a bigger issue in center, particularly when he’s playing next to Raul Ibanez, who is a statue at this point in his career.
Victorino, because he does the flashy things well (running and throwing) and not the subtle things (reading balls and positioning himself before the play) isn’t as good as he looks, and the coaches and managers who vote for the Gold Glove have more important things to do than examine him closely.
I don’t consider it a moral failing on Victorino’s part, and he certainly does many other things well, but from looking past the received wisdom he’s an average defensive player at best. Feel free to disagree if you see it differently, but I don’t think it’s “amateurish” to point out a player’s flaw in a serious evaluation of a potential trade.

You can’t expect to make such a provocative statement and then hope it gets swept under the rug because it isn’t the primary focus of the article. I think that you are REALLY reaching to even continue to make the argument. Victorino gets to just about everything under the sun and even in those rare occasions when he might misjudge a ball, he has the speed to correct his mistake and that’s all you can really ask for.

“Amateurish” may have been a little harsh only because I am used to seeing quality, thought-out content here, but the point still stands: there aren’t many outfielders in the NL, let along the whole league, who are better defensively than Victorino. Anyone who has watched this team night in and night out for the past several years will likely say the same thing.

Everyone knows Gold Gloves are arbitrarily awarded. By your argument, I imagine you would say Derek Jeter is an outstanding short stop based on his 5 Gold Gloves? Shane is fast, and has a solid throwing arm, but Baumann is correct. His reads are poor, and his lack of range is mostly covered up by his speed.

It’s true that Gold Gloves don’t tell the whole story (after all, David Wright has two, which is ridiculous), but you can’t ignore them or completely devalue them either. Victorino has a perfect fielding percentage so far this season, but I’m sure you or Baumann have found some kind of useless sabermetric stat to criticize the way he reads a ball while making a catch. Also, I can’t possibly think of a more contradictory statement than “his lack of range is mostly covered up by his speed,” so I don’t even know what to say to that. He’s a center fielder who covers a lot of ground thanks to his speed and can hold runners because they know he has a very strong arm. If you aren’t satisfied with the way he “reads” a play, which is just about as pedantic a criticism as you can make about an above-average player, then perhaps I’m at the wrong Phillies blog.

I also disagree with the Victorino assessment. Who is better other then maybe Andrew Mccutchen? Nobody, and Mccutchen is arguable.

The hack ESPN writer that came up with this had a list of trade scenerio’s and they all stunk to high heaven. This may have been the worst. Let’s not forget that Ed Wade is the Astros gm. We could get Pence for Ben Francisco, a tub of double bubble, a case of Yeuingling, and a case of tastycakes…and they’d still pay half his salary next year.

Brown, Singleton and Cosart are untouchable. The person I think we should exlpore trading right now is Vance Worley. I like the kid a lot, but I don’t see his value ever being as high as it is right now, especially if he puts up another quality start tonight. I think he could net a big return.

I agree with the main point of the article. Brown and Cosart would be too much for Pence. Even Brown for Pence would be too much…

I don’t agree with some other peripheral statements in the article, though. Namely, that the Phillies “do not have a single good defensive outfielder among them” and ESPECIALLY, that Francisco has an “outstanding throwing arm.” Francisco has a terrible arm –weak and inaccurate. I think Raul has a better arm, to be frank.

1) The Phillies are, by far, the oldest team in baseball? Is that by average age of everyone on the roster? If you take away Contreras, Gload, Lidge, Schneider and Oswalt what does that knock the age down to? The oldest team in baseball in terms of key players/expected contributors… the New York Yankees (maybe?).

2) Yeah… what “they” said about Victorino. He might not track fly balls as well in centerfield as he did in rightfield but he does have three… THREE… Gold Gloves and a cannon attached to his right shoulder.

3) Francisco an outstanding throwing arm? I would venture to say that, amongst all of the Phillies outfielders, the only one with a weaker arm is Gload and, as you said, he is a first baseman.

Once Victorino is healthy, they should be playing Mayberry in left, Victorino in center and Brown in right… everyday… and let Ibanez and Gload fight it out for the lefthanded bat off of the bench while Francisco takes his rightful place as the # 4 outfielder.

I only included Oswalt because he has stated that he is “getting old” and is considering retiring after this season rather that exercising the player option in his contract. If he comes off the roster, the average age decreases. Halladay, obviously, isn’t going anywhere.

I have always considered The Flying Hawaiian to be a great outfielder…guess I was wrong. (sarcasm). As far as Pence goes..he may not be an elite outfielder, but when looking at what has done for a horrible Astros team the last few years and then looking at what the offense is doing this year, you have to make this deal. Polanco is the only player hitting for a solid average, and everyone else is struggling to do anything. Utley coming back helps, but it could take him a month or two to be back to his comfort level. I’m not a huge fan of Dominic Brown, so I have no problem trading him, although I would like to keep Cosart out of this deal. After all the moves to acquire the rotation we have, we have to give them some offense. Just look at the drop off from 08 to now…pitching wont get it done by itself.

regarding Mike M’s first point, the Phillies are not only not “by far” the oldest team in baseball, but they are also not the oldest team in baseball at all. Oldest team in the NL, yes, by .3 years. But both the Yankees and Red Sox have older average ages.

Hey Dustin… that actually wasn’t my point… I was quoting the original article where Baumann said that they were by far the oldest team in baseball. He later went back and corrected that by instead saying that they were “among the oldest teams.”

But, as I mentioned above, there are some guys on the roster that I don’t expect to be around next year that, when subtracted, will lower the average age pretty dramatically.

You just chalk it up like this.
I dont even want to understand the stats some of the stat geeks throw at you. Not interested.

I say this I am almost 40 years old. I watched and played baseball most of that.
I have watched virtually every game of Victorinos career. He has earned every gold glove he has won. If he wasnt as good as he is defensively. There wouldnt be 4 straight division titles. They will quote some statistic then you have those of us who watch and understand the game. In a way you feel bad for them. Because they still do columns defending thier stats and Bobby Abreau. Like they feel so strongly about it that they are offended if you dont understand how important thier stats are. I am a dummy I just dont get how much better Abreau is than victorino.
Victorino and Ruiz are often the target of the stat people. Because I guess thier stats arent that great. But I always learned and felt that good defense up the middle is the second most import thing in baseball behind pitching. They still havent come up with a stat for that though. Just handing out gold gloves.

To the original point. You play Brown for month and see what you get. If hes as good as Pence forget about it.
But a right handed bat would be preferable.
Id rather rent Beltran for 4 months than have Pence myself

brown sucks……and you know this how???was it his 340 batting avg in the minors or are you basing this off his…what….50 or so mlb at bats….because you really can tell a lot about a player in sooooo many at-bats right?????

I also read your profile and you are PHD student etc etc.
You are definately alot smarter than me and I am not going to argue that.

I have read moneyball. And I thnk that you guys made up OPS was a huge developement to the game. It is to me the most important offensive stat and it wasnt invented when I was a kid.
I am just having some fun with you. While I do think my points are valid.
I hope you dont beat me with Victorinos glove if we ever meet and will instead have a beer and talk baseball.
Enjoy yourself. Enjoy the blog. Enjoy the phillies.
You are now my favorite columnist
I have never tweeted and do not have an account. Actually I am not smart enough to make an account. Like I cant get one on here. Go figure.

WAR is a counting stat, like RBI or HR. The more you play, the more you accumulate. If you’re looking for why Piazza’s WAR is so much higher than Ruiz’s, it’s because he played 16 seasons in the majors, and so far Ruiz has only played 6, in the first 3 of which he was pretty bad at the plate. I’m pretty sure you won’t find a stats-oriented person who would deny that he’s a superb defensive catcher who swings a good bat now, at a position where offense is scarce.

Mike Piazza was really, really great. Borderline Hall of Famer. If Carlos Ruiz has half the career he had, we should all be thrilled. So I don’t see why you’re stuck on this point.

And I’m not Publius, although I’m not sure how I would exactly hammer that through to you. My Twitter account is @Phylan, if you want to check. Publius is on Twitter too, and since you’re not on Twitter to harass him, he’s @antsinin. Wait, why am I bothering with this?

Of course you put him in the hall of fame.
Thats where you stat geeks disconnect with reality.
But with the stats he put up wouldnt a catcher like that win an MVP or WS along the way?
But yet he didnt.

He couldnt even be moved to first base. Do you understand they tried to move him to first and he couldnt even play first base?

Why do I bother?
Luckily in the real world Charlie manages the Phillies and I doubt he uses WAR alot when making the line up.
My problem is those of you in geekdom honestly think you know the game better than him.

But you put him right in on the same day as Bobby Abreau.
Stat geeks from around the globe will be there to celebrate.

The biggest concern I had over this article was regarding the use of the word “detritus”. What the hell? Michael Baumann! Don’t use a big word when a smaller one will do. Tsk Tsk.

Nobody is gonna make a deal NOW. We should see how Chase and Dom fit in. And those two for Pence? Nah. Pence is the wrong Astro. Much rather have Bourn. ‘Tis true Shane is an overrated defender, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad one. He’s about average and he’s a better rightfielder than a CFer. How about Bourn and Posednik (I love Posednik) at the top of your lineup? Nice. Nope. Lets wait and see how it goes. Just lets get Ibanez out of left.

Victorino isnt a good defender say what? I disagree no he isnt Mays or Clemente but he is a good outfielder. I know at times he makes it look a little harder but i think this year he has progressed in that area. As far as the trade not both Cosart an Brown one of the other an someone else…PS….please

But at least they are here to tell us how poor the managers vote on things.
Because they dont follow it as closely or know the stats like they do.

Commentariet signing off
Unfortunately not from the basement of the science building
Where Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado have plaques
Right next to those world series rings they show off
With Piazzas

You say Piazza was a really really great player.
As if saying it 2 times has more impact.

He was actually a really bad. Historicly bad defensive player at a defensive position.
I would rather have Sardinah as my catcher than him.
I know you cant understand this.
So to someone like you the Ruiz arguement you cant understand.

So I will cut to the chase.
You do understand that Piazza cant touch, carry or even smell Johnny Benchs jock?

I completely and 100% disagree with the victorino comment. i mean really? do you not look at stats? clearly he is a very good defensive player and you need to start getting your facts checked before you throw out opinions like that.