The poll was taken just one day after President Obama made public his support of gay marriage; however, Obama has never performed extraordinarily well among voters in rural Arkansas.

Three weeks ago, a Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll showed Obama performing better in the culturally conservative First Congressional District of Arkansas. In that poll, Obama received 65% of the vote compared to Wolfe’s 24%.

THE GOP PRIMARY

Conversely, in the Republican primary Mitt Romney seems to be coalescing his support as contenders who qualified for the GOP ballot earlier this year have suspended or halted their campaigns. Romney, who has had a difficult time winning social conservatives that make up a large base of Arkansas Republican voters, is the easy victor among his rivals in the Fourth, according to a separate poll conducted among GOP primary voters.

59% – Romney15% – Santorum11% – Gingrich7% – Paul8% – Undecided

...

POLL METHODOLOGYBoth polls were conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Thursday, May 10, 2012. The Democratic poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.8%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 418 likely Democratic voters in Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in some or all of the last 5 Democratic primary elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they have early/absentee voted or intended to vote in the Democratic primary on May 22, 2012.

The Republican poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.7%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 437 likely GOP voters in Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District.

Participants were selected from a database of district voters who have voted in some or all of the last 5 Republican primary elections and who affirmatively answered a question that they have early/absentee voted or intended to vote in the Republican primary on May 22, 2012.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.

Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

It would be bad but let's remember the key issue here: he is a black.

So what are you suggesting? That Democrats in Arkansas who vote against Obama are doing so because they are all racist? Just want to be sure. Love watching you Democrats eat your own.

I don't know if he's suggesting that. But I'm sure that there are many, many Arkansas democrats who will vote against Obama because they are racist, yes. You may deny it, but you also know that's the key reason of his 59% in WV and his more-than-expected poor showing in Arkansas.

The reason he does so poorly in places like Arkansas is because he's a northerner. He doesn't connect with Southerners at all because he doesn't have to. I think a black southerner would do far better than a white northerner in Arkansas.

The reason he does so poorly in places like Arkansas is because he's a northerner. He doesn't connect with Southerners at all because he doesn't have to. I think a black southerner would do far better than a white northerner in Arkansas.

Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

I'm sorry... this is Arkansas!! Where McCain got 20% of the 'liberal' vote and Obama got only 77% of Democrats in the general in a very Democratic year.

Consider this is an uncontested year where there are no consequences and it's only the hardcore who are bothering to turn out.

This is such a storm in a tea cup...

Logged

Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies

Consider George W. Bush's uncontested presidential primary in 2004. In the handful of states that actually held primary elections that year, Bush's worst performance came in New Hampshire, where he still managed to get 80% of the vote. And Bill Clinton's worst primary performance in the largely uncontested 1996 Democratic primary was the 76% he obtained in the Oklahoma Primary. So I love listening to folks spin this poll as "well Obama was never going to win in Arkansas anyway." Yeah, but we're talking about his OWN Democratic primary, not a race against a Republican...And we're talking about a primary where he has been essentially running unchallenged...and he's the incumbent President...and don't forget, he's also "The One."

Make no mistake about it: if Obama loses in Arkansas, or wins by just a few points, then David Axelrod, Jim Messina, Ben Labolt and the whole crew will be in full-on damage control mode. The incumbent President should not be struggling with Democrats in any state (as 1996 and 2004 showed us).

It would be bad but let's remember the key issue here: he is a black.

So what are you suggesting? That Democrats in Arkansas who vote against Obama are doing so because they are all racist? Just want to be sure. Love watching you Democrats eat your own.

I'm suggesting that many will vote against him because of his race, of course. I mean it won't be true for everyone who does it (I was hoping to vote against Obama myself but we didn't have a primary) but it will certainly be the case for quite a few, if not most. How could one seriously suggest otherwise?

And don't confuse me for someone who gives a damn about the Democratic Party. I'm basically a DINO (just not in the way one generally thinks of one who might be called that).