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France Retail Shopping Centres MarketView Q3 2017

Successive revisions to growth forecasts for the French economy – the latest was 1.8% for 2017 – are a sign of consolidation of the upturn in the economy. Unemployment, estimated at 9.5%, is falling slowly and the consumer sentiment index reflects this improvement as it has finally risen to a level above its long-term average. Inflation will remain moderate hovering around 1.1% in 2017 and 2018. Nevertheless, consumer spending is only increasing by an estimated 1.2%, which is too slow to effectively stimulate economic activity. In parallel, the European Central Bank has no intention of increasing rates before the end of 2018. Its accommodative monetary policy should continue to stimulate the French economy in 2018 with the objective of spurring on consumption and triggering a return to inflation.