I think the only certain thing is that Evgeni's self-belief is unshakeable. He is not affected by anything. Mind-games don't work on him, pressure doesn't get to him, mistakes don't ruffle him. Whereas this new breed of men, the guys like Takahashi and Chan and so on, seem to be rattled very easily. One mistake turns into two. Or three. Or four. And suddenly, meltdown.

One of my favourite performances of Evgeni's is actually his Salt Lake City SP. Because ka-blam, he took a huge fall on the quad...and KILLED the rest of the program. Absolutely went all out and rocked the house. I just don't see too many skaters capable of that nowadays. Chan is like watching dominoes.

At any rate, we don't even know if Evgeni will be the one in Sochi. If he is fit, if his body survives, I'm sure it'll be him. But likewise, even the most ardent fans of his have to accept that it is just as much a possibility that this time might be one quad too far. That maybe this time, there won't be a glorious comeback, and it'll be someone else fighting for pride and glory in Sochi.

Before the 2010 Olympics, if we had to guess Yuna's maximum LP score, we'd probably say ~135, because she had never scored over 134. Guess what? She exceeded that mark by FIFTEEN points.

You guessed ~135 if she has clean fs in Olympics? why? As you said, before olympics, her personal best score was 134 when she didn't had clean program - didn't landed 3lz in first GPS in 09-10. 3lz's base value is 6 point, and she has usually received +2 or +3 GOE on 3lutz. And skaters usually get higher PCS when they have clean program, than when they have mistakes.
If she had clean FS in non-Olympic competition, she would get 145~150. but she had clean program in Olympics - there are score inflation; In vancouver olympics, all three skaters on the podium got over 200. even though they didn't had clean program except kim, and judges had given scored much ingeneral than now at that time - and scored 155. If there is wrong thing in my words, please tell me..

She scored 150 in the Olympics but you're right, it was unexpected but understandable. But everyone's scores were inflated at the Olympics, as what tends to happen. Kim also scored incredible GOE and was flawless so that certainly contributed to it. If she was the last skater, it might have been even higher (certainly worth a row of 6.0s across both boards).

Wow Page 30 already! The truth is so many skating fans either love him or hate him. Evgeni at 30 y.o still RULES the world of figure skating.
Go on everyone. We are in the off-season.

Yes. In 2010 when Plush and the ISU didn't like each other too much, because of Vancouver, and later the ISU suspended him, Mr Cinquanta went to Plush's dressing room in Milano december of 2010, and they discussed the problems. Do you think Mr C would have done it with any other skater?
And if anybody is a fan of another skater, would like him (36 gold and 5 silver)?

Originally Posted by karne

I think the only certain thing is that Evgeni's self-belief is unshakeable. He is not affected by anything. Mind-games don't work on him, pressure doesn't get to him, mistakes don't ruffle him. Whereas this new breed of men, the guys like Takahashi and Chan and so on, seem to be rattled very easily. One mistake turns into two. Or three. Or four. And suddenly, meltdown.

One of my favourite performances of Evgeni's is actually his Salt Lake City SP. Because ka-blam, he took a huge fall on the quad...and KILLED the rest of the program. Absolutely went all out and rocked the house. I just don't see too many skaters capable of that nowadays. Chan is like watching dominoes.

At any rate, we don't even know if Evgeni will be the one in Sochi. If he is fit, if his body survives, I'm sure it'll be him. But likewise, even the most ardent fans of his have to accept that it is just as much a possibility that this time might be one quad too far. That maybe this time, there won't be a glorious comeback, and it'll be someone else fighting for pride and glory in Sochi.

A clean Chan or Fernandez would beat him, Takahashi and Hanyu, well..it depends on the PCS they receive and Ten definitely NO.

"if they are all clean"... plushenko's chance can be lower. But that is just a problem about potential. honestly, i tired about the question, "If skaters have all clean?"
As many people said here, if he is healthy, I think he would be the most consistency among the top skaters of these days.

"if they are all clean"... plushenko's chance can be lower. But that is just a problem about potential. honestly, i tired about the question, "If skaters have all clean?"
As many people said here, if he is healthy, I think he would be the most consistency among the top skaters of these days.

Oh I agree, I think it comes down to scoring potential.

When was the last time Plushenko did a FS with two clean quads? Has he done so in the past decade? I think most of us, including him, acknowledge he'll need two clean quads to stay competitive for the podium... but it's been ages since he's done that.

If he's healthy, he does have good consistency, but jumps like his lutz and quad aren't as reliable as they've been in the past and he doesn't do the 3F (anyone know why?). But in terms of having more consistency over the field, you can't really base it off one competition, or even 2 if you count Russian Nationals. He can rely on the fact that the other guys have strong segments but don't always put them both together -- but come Sochi you'd have to imagine at least one of the top guys would put together a clean or close to clean competition. And to be fair to the other guys, in the past year, they've attempted more ambitious technical layouts, including SPs with quads, 2 quads and difficult series, and axels in the 2nd half, so their propensity for errors is greater (but that also boosts their scoring potential).

I don't think this past Worlds is a good example of assessing the strength of the field. All the top skaters really bombed (except Ten, who himself was lacklustre except for Worlds) either the SP, the LP or both. Takahashi for example won the GPF but came 6th at Worlds (and was lucky to, considering his technical issues). The GPF is probably a better assessment of what the guys are capable (even if there were falls and such, it wasn't as much of a disaster that Worlds was). It's difficult to assess what Plushenko would get for PCS using just one competition (Euros 2012, where Javier wasn't nearly as good as he is now, and he didn't compete against Chan/Takahashi/Ten/Hanyu). Just like we can't really assess what his PCS potential would be using his most recent competition - Euros 2013 - as an example. And, excluding Japan Open, Plushenko hasn't competed against Chan/Takahashi/Ten since the Olympics (four years ago), and has yet to compete against Hanyu, so we can only predict.

I don't think this past Worlds is a good example of assessing the strength of the field. All the top skaters really bombed (except Ten, who himself was lacklustre except for Worlds) either the SP, the LP or both. Takahashi for example won the GPF but came 6th at Worlds (and was lucky to, considering his technical issues). The GPF is probably a better assessment of what the guys are capable (even if there were falls and such, it wasn't as much of a disaster that Worlds was). It's difficult to assess what Plushenko would get for PCS using just one competition (Euros 2012, where Javier wasn't nearly as good as he is now, and he didn't compete against Chan/Takahashi/Ten/Hanyu). Just like we can't really assess what his PCS potential would be using his most recent competition - Euros 2013 - as an example. And, excluding Japan Open, Plushenko hasn't competed against Chan/Takahashi/Ten since the Olympics (four years ago), and has yet to compete against Hanyu, so we can only predict.

I am really tired of all your prediction. Plushyfan's reason certainly does not hold as for the reason you said yourself. And it is the same for your argument no matter how many data you bring up. Apparently you cannot be settled down as we do not really hold the hope of him winning seriously since we know he has health issues. You have to put the idea of all the top men now are better than Plushenko into people's mind. You just cannot stop yourself. Just amazing.

Seriously, I do not really think Plushenko can win Olympics, but if he is healthy, he should have quite a chance to medal. Ice is slippery, as you mentioned before, may the best men stand. Anyway, trash talking Plushenko's "average" skating ability would not affect anything for the man. You only annoy fans of Plushenko and other people who respect him as a great athlete. Maybe you have a great fun of annoy other people by using your cunning words (truth mixed with small portion of rubbish to make people think the rubbish is truth).

I have such fond memory of his Crazy Bird performance in 1998 World gala. Even at the tender age of 15, he can string the whole audience around his finger tip. 15 years and counting, he is still at the center of attention in the skating world, judging by this post

Hehe. Interesting to see how you put a clean Takahashi with "it depends on the PCS he receives." While Javi and Chan with "would beat him", even if it's clear as a day that a clean Dai's PCS must be ways higher than a clean Chan's and especially a clean Javi's. Yet with them you have no "it depends" in your argument, which is actually right. Because they are both aer either a Canadian or a coached/petted by a Canadian, so their PCS are granted with no "it depends".

In my opinion, Takahashi is sometimes very underscored in PCS (very often unfortunately )that's why I've said "it depends".
Ferdandez, if clean, has 3 quads and we know judges can be generous when it comes to his PCS.
A clean Hanyu may beat Plushenko but again, their PCS could decide the outcome.
Chan is Chan.