France has withdrawn its first batch of 100 troops out of the 4,000 deployed in Mali as it prepares to hand over operations to a UN peacekeeping force, with 1,000 French troops to remain on the ground by the end of the year.

However, fears are mounting that Mali will become a drawn-out
war, spilling into other regions and fueling terrorism.

France justified its January intervention into Mali as a
necessary battle to stem the advance of Al-Qaeda-linked militants
who had seized northern Mali, and threatened to gain control over
the capital Bamako.

Months later, the French succeeded in driving out Islamist
insurgents from northern Mali, with some retreating to desert
hideouts in the vast area, which increased fears that the conflict
might turn into a long war and spill over into other African
regions. French troops are still battling insurgents in Gao, as
well as in the historic desert city of Timbuktu.

Risk of spillover

The plan to keep 1,000 troops as part of a future UN peacekeeping
mission stands in stark contrast to what French Foreign Minister
Laurent Fabius said in January when he was questioned on the extent
of the military operation in Mali. "Regarding France's direct
involvement, it is only a matter of weeks. Later on, we can come as
back-up, but we have no intention of staying forever," Fabius
added.

However, a complete French withdrawal from Mali is now
reportedly off the table.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned that the Mali
conflict risks spilling over into the disputed Western Sahara
territory. "Possible armed infiltrations, gaps in regional
security coordination and resource shortages for effective border
controls expose military observers to risk," Reuters quoted Ban
as saying in his report to the 15-nation Security Council during
meetings with UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara
(MINURSO).

Last week, Ban called for the deployment of 11,200 troops and
1,440 police as part of the UN peacekeeping mission after France
withdraws, Reuters reported. The UN Secretary-General also called
for the creation of a second force to fight militants; according to
media reports, the remaining French troops could be part of this
force.

But the UN’s talk of additional troop deployments to Mali is
still “merely an idea,” RT’s Egor Piskunov reported, adding
that “when the French troops do leave it will be a completely
different game for the remaining thousand.”

The US has suggested that troops from the Economic Community of
West African States (ECOWAS) deployed in Mali are "completely
incapable," and are not "up to the task" of fighting the
rebels.

"Right now, the ECOWAS force isn't capable at all. What you
saw there, it is a completely incapable force. That has to
change," AFP quoted the Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Special Operations Michael Sheehan as saying at a Senate Armed
Services subcommittee.

Illicit arms supplies and Al Qaeda’s response

The threat from insurgents has escalated because of illicit
weapons transfers from Libya to West Africa and the eastern
Mediterranean. A new report compiled for the UN Security Council argued
that since the uprising in Libya in 2011, the country has become
“a significant and attractive source of weaponry in the
region,” making it a source of illicit weapons transfers that
fuel regional conflicts, including the one in Mali.

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Zawahiri has also called upon Muslims in
Arab Spring countries last week to unite and establish an Islamic
state, and warned France over its military intervention in
Mali.

"Let your fight be in the name of Allah and with the aim of
establishing Allah's sharia [law] as the ruling system," France
24 quoted Zawahiri as saying in his first online message since last
November. Zawahiri further claimed that France would face a
protracted military campaign in Mali, warning it would face “the
same fate America met in Iraq and Afghanistan."

"I call upon our Muslim nation in Mali to hold and be
patient, and hopefully, affect a new defeat to the global
crusade," he added.

‘War in Mali is about resources’

However, experts argue that the Mali intervention was never
intended to be a quick operation.

Former French intelligence officer Claude Moniquet, who had been
stationed in northern Africa and the Middle East for about 20
years, told RT that from the very start he was doubtful that the
intervention in Mali was going to be as short as expected.

“The French army has expelled insurgents from the cities and
so what? Would they retreat? They will come back, exactly as they
did in Afghanistan when the Soviets withdrew in 1989, and exactly
what they will do in Afghanistan when the last American soldier
will retreat.”

Investigative journalist Michel Collon, who has written
extensively about war strategies and the media coverage of military
conflicts, argued that the “war is not a solution,” as the
reasons behind it were the region’s resources.

“The problem in Mali is that it is poor, so this gives
possibilities for terrorism. And if Mali is poor that is because of
the plundering by French companies,” Collon told RT. “The
real goal of French presence is not to combat the Islamists, but
the resources.”

Collon believes that the French would like to keep Africa under
its control, and that the war is about fighting “against the
possibility of an autonomous Africa.”

“They want to prevent a form of unity of Africa and that they
want to prevent a form of alliance between the BRICS [Brazil,
Russia, India, China, South Africa] and also the African economies.
That is a war for keeping Africa under colonial rule,” Collon
added.