Week 16 Quick Reads

Hello everyone. Due to the holidays, we are bringing you Quick Reads a day early, skipping our main essay, and jumping right into the comments for Week 16. Merry Christmas to all the Football Outsiders readers!

Quarterbacks

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

TotalDYAR

PassDYAR

RushDYAR

Opp

1.

Drew Brees

NO

27/39

326

1

0

2

175

175

0

PIT

Brees had two passes on fourth down and converted them both via pass interference penalties, for 33- and 4-yard gains. He was lights-out when throwing to his left or up the middle, but struggled (relatively speaking) when throwing to his right: 9-of-18 for 66 yards, plus a 33-yard DPI, for only five total first downs.

2.

Aaron Rodgers

GB

38/55

442

2

0

4

155

126

29

NYJ

Rodgers' comeback was fueled by DPIs. He drew four in the fourth quarter alone, for gains of 26, 2, 33, and 7 yards. Derek Carr, who has started every game for Oakland, has only picked up four DPI calls all season. Dak Prescott has only drawn three. Philip Rivers has only drawn two.

3.

Russell Wilson

SEA

18/29

271

3

0

3

150

140

10

KC

Wilson's best throws were either deep, or very short. On deep balls (throws that traveled more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), he went 8-of-12 for 197 yards, plus two other throws that drew DPIs for 15 and 26 yards. On throws to receivers within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 7-of-9 for 46 yards, plus a DPI for 3 yards, with seven total first downs, including two scores.

4.

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

33/49

380

3

0

3

150

149

2

NO

Pittsburgh's passing attack was almost exclusively limited to wide receivers against New Orleans. On throws to his backs and tight ends, Roethlisberger went 4-of-9 for 60 yards with one touchdown and one other first down.

5.

Sam Darnold

NYJ

24/35

341

3

0

2

146

156

-9

GB

Darnold's 20-yard touchdown pass to Elijah McGuire put the Jets up 35-20 with 2:50 left in the third quarter. He only threw for two more first downs the rest of the game. In the fourth quarter, he went 5-of-11 for 64 yards and a sack. He was first in the league in DYAR in the the first three quarters of the game this week, but 21st among starters in the fourth quarter.

6.

Andrew Luck

IND

31/46

357

2

1

1

141

135

6

NYG

Red zone passing: 8-of-8 for 45 yards with two touchdowns and three other first downs, plus a 7-yard DPI on a ninth throw.

7.

Deshaun Watson

HOU

29/40

339

2

0

4

122

87

35

PHI

First seven third-down dropbacks: three completions for 19 yards, two incompletions, two sacks, one fumble, no conversions. Last two third-down dropbacks: 22-yard gain and 35-yard touchdown, both on third-and-11. He also had a 5-yard completion on fourth-and-9.

8.

Eli Manning

NYG

25/33

309

1

1

0

115

106

9

IND

Third-down passing: 9-of-11, 154 yards, seven conversions.

9.

Nick Foles

PHI

35/48

471

4

1

1

114

110

5

HOU

Deep balls: 5-of-7 for 205 yards and a touchdown.

10.

Baker Mayfield

CLE

27/37

284

3

0

0

101

98

3

CIN

Red zone passing: 6-of-7 for 32 yards with three touchdowns and one other first down.

11.

Patrick Mahomes

KC

23/40

273

3

0

1

97

87

10

SEA

Mahomes destroyed the middle of Seattle's defense, going 10-of-15 for 148 yards and nine first downs.

12.

Jameis Winston

TB

34/48

336

1

0

3

75

75

0

DAL

It was too little, too late against Dallas, but Winston led all quarterbacks in fourth-quarter DYAR this week. In the final 15 minutes of the game, he went 13-of-15 for 108 yards seven first downs, including a touchdown.

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

TotalDYAR

PassDYAR

RushDYAR

Opp

13.

Mitchell Trubisky

CHI

25/29

246

1

0

3

62

61

2

SF

Trubisky's botched overhand pitch on an option play goes down as an "incomplete lateral" for -32 passing DYAR. He played a lot of small ball in the second half, going 16-of-17 for 109 yards with six first downs and one sack.

14.

Jared Goff

LAR

19/24

216

1

0

2

61

53

9

ARI

Throwing to his left, Goff went 11-of-13 for 105 yards and seven first downs.

15.

Lamar Jackson

BAL

12/22

204

1

0

3

59

85

-26

LAC

Jackson threw three passes in the red zone; all were incomplete. On third and fourth downs, he went 2-of-6 for 23 yards with more sacks (two) than conversions (one).

16.

Kirk Cousins

MIN

21/28

253

3

0

2

52

57

-5

DET

Cousins threw nine passes to his tight ends, all to Kyle Rudolph, all complete, for 122 yards, two touchdowns, and two other first downs.

17.

Blaine Gabbert

TEN

7/11

101

1

0

1

41

41

0

WAS

Gabbert threw just one pass to his left: a 4-yard gain to Anthony Firkser on third-and-6.

18.

Nick Mullens

SF

22/38

241

0

1

1

39

39

0

CHI

Red zone passing: 2-of-6 for 10 yards with as many first downs (one) as interceptions. You'll recall that the 49ers lost this game by five points.

19.

Jeff Driskel

CIN

13/19

133

2

0

3

33

34

-2

CLE

Driskel had some serious garbage-time production in this game. In the fourth quarter, he went 5-of-5 for 71 yards and two touchdowns -- but each of those throws came with Cincinnati down by at least 16 points.

20.

Matt Ryan

ATL

15/26

239

3

0

1

32

32

0

CAR

First three third-down plays: three completions, three conversions, 30 total yards. Third downs, rest of the game: 2-of-6, 7 yards, no conversions.

21.

Dak Prescott

DAL

20/25

161

1

0

1

30

28

2

TB

Prescott only threw five passes against Tampa Bay that traveled more than 6 yards downfield, but he made them count, completing four of them for 74 yards and four first downs.

22.

Marcus Mariota

TEN

10/13

110

0

0

2

20

17

3

WAS

Mariota left the game shortly before halftime and did not return. Like his replacement, Blaine Gabbert, he did almost nothing when throwing to his left, going 2-of-2 for 7 yards and no first downs.

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

TotalDYAR

PassDYAR

RushDYAR

Opp

23.

Josh Johnson

WAS

13/23

153

1

2

2

-5

-9

4

TEN

Johnson's average pass traveled 11.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Only Russell Wilson (12.7 yards) threw deeper passes among starters this week.

24.

Philip Rivers

LAC

23/37

181

0

2

4

-7

-4

-3

BAL

On Baltimore's half of the field, Rivers went 4-of-11 for 26 yards with two first downs, one sack, and one interception. Also, this is not his fault, but one of those completions was fumbled away, and the Ravens returned it for a touchdown.

25.

Ryan Tannehill

MIA

15/22

146

1

1

3

-9

-16

7

JAX

On Miami's first drive, Tannehill went 5-for-5 for 67 yards and four first downs. He only threw for four more first downs the rest of the game.

26.

Matt Cassel

DET

5/11

45

0

0

1

-14

-23

9

MIN

Anyone else just now learning that Cassel plays for Detroit? All of his throws came with the Lions down by 18 points in the final five minutes of the game.

27.

Matthew Stafford

DET

18/32

116

0

0

2

-31

-31

0

MIN

Stafford threw for only one first down in his last 19 dropbacks. In that stretch, he went 8-of-17 for 31 yards with two sacks.

28.

Josh Rosen

ARI

12/23

87

0

0

3

-32

-48

16

LAR

Rosen only threw for three first downs against the Rams, and all came with the Cardinals down by at least 11 points. On third downs, he went 2-of-7 for 18 yards with one conversion and one sack. He did not throw a pass in the red zone; on the Rams' side of the field, he went 5-of-10 for 28 yards with no first downs and three sacks.

29.

Cody Kessler

JAX

12/17

106

0

0

5

-62

-63

1

MIA

Kessler left this game late in the third quarter and did not return. His last six dropbacks: incomplete on first-and-20; failed completion on second-and-20; three straight sacks, one of them on third-and-38; incomplete pass on third-and-11.

30.

Josh Allen

BUF

20/41

217

1

2

0

-74

-72

-2

NE

Allen's first nine throws on third/fourth down were all incomplete. Seven of those came with 7 yards or less to go for a first down. His final third-down throw resulted in his only conversion, a 6-yard gain to Zay Zones on third-and-4 with Buffalo down by 18 points inside of the two-minute warning.

31.

Tom Brady

NE

13/24

126

1

2

1

-92

-92

0

BUF

Brady only threw for five first downs against Buffalo, and none of them came in the first half. In those first two quarters, he went 7-of-13 for 40 yards with one interception and one sack; one of those completions was also fumbled away. He only threw two passes that traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage; both were incomplete.

32.

Taylor Heinicke

CAR

33/52

274

1

3

2

-161

-156

-4

ATL

Heinicke is the first quarterback to throw three interceptions against Atlanta this season. Drew Brees only threw one in 71 passes. His 5.2 yards per pass are the worst for any Falcons opponent since Nick Foles in Week 1. Inside the Atlanta 30, he went 8-of-14 for 56 yards with one touchdown, three other first downs, and three interceptions.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

RushYds

RushTD

Rec

RecYds

RecTD

TotalDYAR

RushDYAR

RecDYAR

Opp

1.

Alvin Kamara

NO

7

23

2

3/7

82

0

72

20

52

PIT

Kamara's longest run gained only eight yards, but all of them gained at least 1, and he converted all three of his opportunities with 2 yards or less to go for a first down. Three of his catches gained first downs, including gains of 31 and 42 yards, and he also drew a 33-yard DPI on fourth-and-1.

2.

Sony Michel

NE

18

116

1

0/0

0

0

53

53

0

BUF

Five first downs on the ground, four of them on gains of 12 yards or more, and only one stuff.

3.

C.J. Anderson

LAR

20

167

1

1/3

-5

0

45

71

-26

ARI

The Rams signed Anderson off the street six days ago. He had nine first downs the ground, including gains of 27 and 46 yards, while being stuffed just one time. This is the kind of game even a street free agent is capable of in the Rams offense.

4.

Damien Williams

KC

13

104

0

7/7

37

1

41

20

21

SEA

Williams had so many good plays he makes the list of top running backs even though one of his carries resulted in a 6-yard loss and a lost fumble on first-and-15. He had two stuffs to go with four first downs, including gains of 17, 21, and 25 yards. All of his catches came on first down; three of them resulted in first downs.

5.

Jacquizz Rodgers

TB

2

2

1

7/7

55

0

33

10

22

DAL

Only two of Rodgers' catches gained first downs, but six counted as successful plays, including a 5-yard gain on fourth-and-2.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

RushYds

RushTD

Rec

RecYds

RecTD

TotalDYAR

RushDYAR

RecDYAR

Opp

1.

C.J. Anderson

LAR

20

167

1

1/3

-5

0

45

71

-26

ARI

2.

Sony Michel

NE

18

116

1

0/0

0

0

53

53

0

BUF

3.

Jordan Howard

CHI

13

53

1

2/3

17

0

31

31

0

SF

Though his longest run against San Francisco gained only 9 yards, he had five first downs on the ground, converting five of his six chances with 3 yards or less to go for a first down.

4.

Jamaal Williams

GB

15

95

1

6/9

61

0

29

23

6

NYJ

Six first downs on the ground, with three runs of double-digit yardage, while getting stuffed three times.

5.

Alvin Kamara

NO

7

23

2

3/7

82

0

72

20

52

PIT

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

RushYds

RushTD

Rec

RecYds

RecTD

TotalDYAR

RushDYAR

RecDYAR

Opp

1.

LeGarrette Blount

DET

11

29

0

2/4

-5

0

-36

-6

-30

MIN

Only one first down on the ground, while being stuffed three times. One of his catches went for no gain; the other lost 5 yards.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

RushYds

RushTD

Rec

RecYds

RecTD

TotalDYAR

RushDYAR

RecDYAR

Opp

1.

D'Onta Foreman

HOU

7

-1

0

2/2

28

1

-12

-39

27

PHI

None of Foreman's runs were successful or gained more than 2 yards. Four were stuffed, and one of those was fumbled.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR

Rk

Player

Team

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

TotalDYAR

Opp

1.

Tyler Lockett

SEA

4

5

99

24.8

0

62

KC

Lockett's four first-down catches included gains of 19, 25, and 45 yards. He also drew DPIs of 15 and 26 yards.

2.

Robert Woods

LAR

6

7

89

14.8

1

60

ARI

Woods' totals include 42 DYAR receiving, 18 DYAR rushing for his two carries for 15 yards and a touchdown. Four of his catches gained first downs, the longest a 39-yard touchdown.

3.

Antonio Brown

PIT

14

19

185

13.2

2

55

NO

Twelve of Brown's catches resulted in first downs, including 3- and 20-yard touchdowns.

4.

T.Y. Hilton

IND

7

8

138

19.7

0

53

NYG

Five of Hilton's catches resulted in first downs, including gains of 20, 25, and 55 yards.

5.

Evan Engram

NYG

6

6

87

14.5

0

50

IND

Engram's totals include 26 DYAR receiving, 25 DYAR rushing for his two carries for 26 yards. His five first downs as a receiver included gains of 27 and 32 yards.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR

Rk

Player

Team

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

TotalDYAR

Opp

1.

Curtis Samuel

CAR

7

13

41

5.9

0

-54

ATL

Three of Samuel's receptions gained first downs, but none gained more than 9 yards. One lost 3 yards on first-and-10. He was also the target of an incomplete pass on fourth-and-1.

Not that Brady had a good week, but at least one of his interceptions was the fault of the receiver, and the other one may have been, too.

Edelman was the only consistent target. Hogan played most of the game and wasn't targeted once. Gronk was targeted three times with zero receptions.

On the flip side, the Pats had their best day running the ball since John Hannah retired. Can that translate into playoff success? Maybe. There is reason to think the passing game might get its act together. It's very weird to see it as unproductive as it's been the past two weeks.

The first INT was a miscommunication. Considering how long Brady's been doing it, I'll put the blame on Burkhardt. Then Gronk let an easy enough catch go right through his hands.
Losing Gordon was a major blow as it doesn't look like health is a possibility for Gronk this season. He's still blocking at a high level but lacks his burst and hops in the catching game. I wonder if the back issue that made him drop as a draft prospect is here to stay. Would anyone be surprised if come March we read a little article about him going under the knife, again? Or that he's decided to retire? Belichick's plan to trade him last offseason now makes perfect sense.
The Pats are completely without a downfield threat or a true #1. Edelman can still do some fantastic stuff but only in flashes and he never scared anyone on deep routes.Jet sweeps and dump offs to RBs will remain a staple on the menu. Still, with a bye week and the potential for home field, they have as much chance as anybody in the AFC. Not that the Jets game is a gimme but since it's in Foxboro they certainly should win.

I think I must have read half a dozen pieces that extolled Tyler Lockett's speed. And yeah, he's fast; but that's not what he uses to get open most of the time (and also he gets lots of pass interference calls): his precise route running is awesome, which he had as a rookie. Natural speed is fine, but Lockett has made himself a excellent wide receiver through work. Though Lockett was blessed not only because of speed, but also he grew up in a football family.

Still: if you watch Lockett every week, it's the route running that's amazing.

Would have expected Seahawks' Chris Carson to show up in Best running backs (rushing) with 116 yds and 2 TDs.

Actually, he was in the bottom five in rushing. 22 YAR, which goes to -22 DYAR after opponent adjustments. He had eight first downs, but was also stuffed six times -- most by anyone against the Chiefs this year. That includes a zero-yard gain on first-and-goal from the 1 and a 3-yard loss on first-and-goal from the 5. He averaged 4.30 yards on his 27 carries -- but the average running back carry against Kansas City has gained 4.99 yards this year. So Carson spent a whole game racking up a ton of carries that gained less yards than you'd expect, which is how you rack up negative DYAR. Only 11 of his 27 carries (41 percent) counted as successful plays.

Seriously, I’m very much not a anti-goodstats guy, so please don’t take this as that.

But Carson in the bottom of rushing last week? Like, Seattle had to get over Carson’s very subpar performance to win despite him? It really didn’t look like that, to put it mildly. Almost nobody watching the game would leave with that reaction.

Again, I’m not saying throw out the stat. But (in my opinion) there’s something important not covered in Carson’s number vs Carson’s game.

The difference is that Carson is on a run first team. It's like Lamarr Jackson's rushing DVOA, it doesn't account quite right moment to moment, even if it probably is correct for the grand sweep.
_______

Are opponent adjustments just vs type of defense or are they position specific? e.g., if a team has an average pass defense, but is better vs wide receivers and worse vs tight ends, will opponent adjustments for a wr and te be the same or different?

The DPI situation in the GB/NYJ game was nuts. Also, Darnold has thrown over 400 passes with just one DPI. In the first half of the GB game alone, he threw 2-3 back shoulder/give your WR a shot balls where there was a lot of contact and no flag. Not a big deal at the time but then the rules were enforced a little differently in the second half.... It's been like that all year. When you have a bad team with no name/bad receivers, you get no benefit of the doubt. Anyway, the last three for Darnold have been very promising. Hopefully, he'll start getting those flags in the future.