History offer little precedent for the Astros' move of situational left-hander Wesley Wright to the rotation.

In the abstract, a 25-year-old southpaw starter sounds like an asset to any rebuilding movement. In practice, of course, whether that starter turns out to be an asset depends entirely on the 25-year-old southpaw in question. In his recent two-part prescription to fix the floundering Astros, Marc Normandin noted that the ’Stros should be “using the Rule 5 draft to snag some talent other organizations can't hold onto.” As it happens, Houston has already landed one Rule 5 pick who’s managed to hang around Minute Maid Park: Wesley Wright, whom then-just-installed GM Ed Wade plucked from the Dodgers in December of 2007. Wright is a 25-year-old southpaw, all right, but he’s no starter. Or is he?

Wright has served as a major league reliever for the past two seasons, but the Astros have plans for the present and future that call for him to abandon the bullpen and reinforce the rotation. An enduring change in role for Wright would instantly give the team another young starter to go along with Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino (and perhaps Jordan Lyles, before long), bypassing the need to suffer through the sturm und drang of drafting and developing one, a process at which the Astros haven’t exactly excelled in recent memory. If Wright could succeed as a starter, his makeover might help jumpstart a stagnant franchise, but does he truly fit the profile of a suitable candidate for conversion, or are the Astros trying to strike gold in a pyrite mine? Let’s explore the pros and cons.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

A glib observation about the Pirates' booting big bucks leads to a more rigorous examination of the contracts that do real damage.

With the aid of Nate Silver's MORP formula for converting on-field performance into dollar value, I soon had the--well, an--answer. While the likes of Derek "Operation Shutdown" Bell ($9 million, -0.2 WARP) and Kevin Young ($24 million, 2.8 WARP) were deservedly infamous, the "winner" as the biggest waste of Bucs bucks turned out to be Jason Kendall. Despite being a solid five-wins-a-year player during the course of the six-year deal he signed in November 2000, the backstop with the busticated ankle still fell $28 million short of earning his keep.

Blowing $28 million with the stroke of a pen, as Pirates GM Cam Bonifay did back then, is pretty impressive. But as impressive as the Pirates' record of lousy judgment is, surely there are examples of other teams' deals that ended up being even more costly?

The Doctor returns with a look at the draft history of high school and college pitchers, to see if we can learn a few things about pitching value.

Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall Busts
COL LHP 84-91 - 4.4% + 54.7% +133.4% + 21.5%
COL LHP 92-99 - 7.3% + 61.1% + 15.0% + 8.0%
COL LHP 84-99 - 5.8% + 57.8% + 82.4% + 15.2%
Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts
84-91 Jim Abbott, Greg Swindell Drew Hall, Kyle Abbott
92-99 Barry Zito, Randy Wolf B.J. Wallace, Jeff Granger
Note that the two most valuable draft picks from 1984 to 1991 are notRandy Johnson, who was third on the list. Johnson is a future Hall of Famer, but was not a full-time starting pitcher in the major leagues until four years after he was drafted, and didn't become RANDY JOHNSON until 1993. And of course, along the way he was traded by the team that drafted him, the Montreal Expos, essentially for four months of Mark Langston. The point bears repeating: the sooner a draft pick renders his value, the less likely the team that drafted him will have already given him up for pennies on the dollar.

However, after witnessing five months of false starts, rehab assignments, and generally below-replacement-level performance, Red Sox fans have to start wondering about what exactly Curt Schilling and Red Sox management were willing to sacrifice in return for those World Series rings. More than ten full months after former team physician Dr. Bill Morgan attempted an experimental suturing procedure to enable Schilling to pitch in the ALCS and World Series, Will Carroll reports that Schilling is still having problems pushing off his right ankle, and therefore generating velocity on his fastball.

The Angels' roster shuffling means more playing time for the deserving Jeff DaVanon.
Earl Snyder and Cal Pickering finally get a fair shake. The Dodgers try to patch
their bullpen with Elmer Dessens and Scott Stewart. The Pirates bring up some
intriguing young arms. These and other happenings in today's Transaction Analysis.

The Indians look to take a big step forward, even if much it can be chalked up to the fabled "Ugueto Effect." The Dodgers biggest off-season acquisition didn't come on the field, it came in the front office. And the Mariners enter 2004 with a checklist a mile long. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.

"Back up in your ass with the resurrection..." The Tigers might have gotten all the attention in 2003 for struggling through one of the most pathetic seasons of the past century, but it should be noted that the Cleveland Indians didn't exactly set the world on fire, either. Thanks to a combined 1,900 ABs of below replacement-level production at the plate from the likes of Josh Bard, Coco Crisp, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, John McDonald, and Brandon Phillips (yes, he was so bad we're naming him twice), the Tribe scored fewer than 700 runs in a full season for the first time since 1992, on their way to 68 wins in the easiest division in the game.

B.J. Surhoff and Deivi Cruz have compormising pictures of Orioles management. Darren Dreifort's latest injury has the Dodgers pondering his future yet again. The Brewers may have grasped the concept of sunk costs. The Phillies' bullpen is a mess. News, notes, and Kahrlisms from 25 major league teams in the latest edition of Transaction Analysis.

There are open questions about Randy Johnson, and Friday's UTK seems to have opened quite the can of worms surrounding the reigning Cy Young Award winner. As I reported, Johnson is having a series of injections to lubricate his knee and replace the missing cushion and lubrication that should naturally be there. The substance, Synvisc, is administered in a series of three injections, with the first performed Friday, the next scheduled on Tuesday and the final probably the next Friday. There are whispers coming from multiple sources that the Synvisc injections aren't the solution, but merely a stopgap measure to try and get Johnson through the season. The underlying problem is rumored to be an osteochondral defect and the normal therapy for that is a microfracture surgery or reconfiguration of the bone through an osteotomy.
The problem is similar to that of Mo Vaughn, but a better recent comp is Marvin Benard. Benard had microfracture surgery, took about four months to get back into competitive shape, and has had some setbacks along the way. If Johnson can be babied through to the end of the season, he could have the more extensive surgery in the off-season. Still, despite the best efforts of a good Arizona medical staff, Johnson's knee could flare up under the unusual stresses placed on the plant leg of a power pitcher. There's nothing to say that the Unit can't do it, but if you're looking at risks, Johnson's red light just started flashing.
In addition to the pitching problems, the Diamondbacks are placing David Dellucci on the DL after a concussion. The move is termed precautionary and was done more to add a body to the roster while Dellucci fully recovers than concern that he will take longer than expected to recover. Curt Schilling, Craig Counsell, Matt Mantei and Mike Koplove are some of the other key Diamondbacks on the DL for various lengths of time. It's not just at the major league level either--they're dropping like flies at the Triple-A level too. Remember that the arms still there, the ones not forced up to the majors by injury, are likely facing a heavier workload and more stress than expected.
The news on Vladimir Guerrero gets worse. The herniated L4/L5 disc is causing not only the painful immobility of his trunk and weakness and radiating pain to his legs, but there is some concern that there may be some stenosis associated with this problem. While the diagnosis of stenosis may not alter the timetable or protocol significantly, it does make it much more likely that Guerrero will be forced to undergo surgery at some point in the future. Guerrero's response to epidural injections is now crucial. He'll likely have at least two and perhaps three in hopes that surgery can be avoided. While the injury is comparable to that suffered by Ivan Rodriguez last season, the stenotic element makes this more concerning from a long-term perspective.

There are open questions about Randy Johnson, and Friday's UTK seems to have opened quite the can of worms surrounding the reigning Cy Young Award winner. As I reported, Johnson is having a series of injections to lubricate his knee and replace the missing cushion and lubrication that should naturally be there. The substance, Synvisc, is administered in a series of three injections, with the first performed Friday, the next scheduled on Tuesday and the final probably the next Friday. There are whispers coming from multiple sources that the Synvisc injections aren't the solution, but merely a stopgap measure to try and get Johnson through the season. The underlying problem is rumored to be an osteochondral defect and the normal therapy for that is a microfracture surgery or reconfiguration of the bone through an osteotomy.

The gasp was actually audible in Great American when Ken Griffey pulled off a swing, clutching at his shoulder. It was an emotional roller-coaster, as Griffey took the next Mike Mussina shot into the bleachers, then left the game. The worst-case scenario of a reinjured right shoulder wasn't the case, luckily. Instead, Griffey appears to have injured his right biceps. It may not be a cascade, but likely, Griffey is using more arm in his swing or perhaps got his strength a bit out of balance in all the rehab done to get him back. He's currently listed as day-to-day, but with the depth the Reds have in the outfield--and Bob Boone's cluelessness in how to utilize it properly--they can afford to take their time.
Curiously, the Dodgers listed 'strained medial collateral ligament' as the cause when they placed Darren Dreifort on the DL today. The current thought is that the arthritic problems in Dreifort's knee were the result of a cascade. This particular cascade was the result of the lack of cartilage causing a hypermobile joint, overstressing the ligaments. Finally, the MCL was strained a bit too much and now Dreifort once again finds himself on the DL. For now, he'll avoid surgery and will hope that a new bracing system will help him pitch. The Dodgers are working hard to figure out how to best use Dreifort to maximum advantage while minimizing his exposure.
While it's not a big breaking news story to UTK readers, Troy Percival is expected to return to the Angels bullpen on Saturday. The worry now is that he's altered his motion significantly enough to endanger his arm in...yes, a cascade. There was an article yesterday that had a scout worried about the torque that Percival was putting on his arm since he'd altered the leg kick. I haven't seen the motion, but it's worth tucking that tidbit away. In other Halo news, Darin Erstad appears to be doing well in his rehab and is due back early next week.

The gasp was actually audible in Great American when Ken Griffey pulled off a swing, clutching at his shoulder. It was an emotional roller-coaster, as Griffey took the next Mike Mussina shot into the bleachers, then left the game. The worst-case scenario of a reinjured right shoulder wasn't the case, luckily. Instead, Griffey appears to have injured his right biceps. It may not be a cascade, but likely, Griffey is using more arm in his swing or perhaps got his strength a bit out of balance in all the rehab done to get him back. He's currently listed as day-to-day, but with the depth the Reds have in the outfield--and Bob Boone's cluelessness in how to utilize it properly--they can afford to take their time.