Archive for 5954

Of course, we have our Draft Analyzer here at STARTERS, which cranks out custom cheat sheets using an industry-leading predictive algorithm. However, I also provide my personal redraft and dynasty rankings outside of the Analyzer rankings, just to give all you fantasy fanatics another list to look at. Use them all, you can never get enough info to mix together! Below are both the updated dynasty and redraft links!

NOTE: Due to endless requests for it, I have added a tiering system to both sets of rankings!

SMITTY: While Kirk Cousins’ failure to hold onto the job virtually locks Robert Griffin III as the team’s starter just as soon as he is ready (most think Week 9), Colt McCoy is a lot better than people give him credit for. I’m not suggesting he will hold off RG3 with a good game here, but I think a surprising outing shouldn’t be ruled out is all, which is good for those Redskins receivers and tight ends. Also, on a side note, all you deep league owners should take a long look at adding Roy Helu. I like the runner a lot, and he is a PPR type that would thrive if given the carries. Morris is banged up and Helu just feels “stash” worthy. Keep up-to-date with all the latest news with our Smart Alerts

Hey, everyone. Our friends over at FantasyPros again invited us to participate in an Expert Roundtable, this time for Week 5. Below are the five questions asked to every expert on the panel, and below each question is my answer to each question. Enjoy, and good luck in Week 5, everyone!

Q1: Name one “sleeper start” for Week 5 and give us an example of a player or two you like this guy better than as a starter.

“Jeremy Hill (at NE): The Bengals are feeding Gio Bernard monster touches, and Gio was/remains one of our biggest breakouts on the year, but that Bengals offense has room for Hill. He could be a 40-60 yard rusher with a score every week (with upside for much more). He is a fantastic start, especially this Sunday night against a struggling New England team. The Bengals might be running a lot in the 4th.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q2: Who should fantasy owners be most concerned about as a potential bust this week?

“Alfred Morris (vs SEA): This is a tough matchup and Washington looks rattled. Even though the Seahawks are on the road, this is a Monday night contest, and I think Seattle shines early and often. This not only takes out the Redskins’ rushing game in the second half, it’s just a flat out horrible rushing matchup for Morris. Plus, Roy Helu is ultra-talented and he could steal touches in this one, especially on 3rd downs.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

“Larry Donnell: Donnell feels like the real deal, and he should have success against Atlanta this week. That said, I still love Travis Kelce despite the tough SF matchup, and Justin Forsett has sneaky upside just as long as you’re not sitting a bigger name, as that Ravens’ rushing attack is very cloudy.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q4: If you’re in a bind and need a desperation flex (i.e FLEX ECR worse than 115), who would you roll the dice with as a high upside option?

“Andre Williams (RB, vs ATL): With an ECR of 125, I think Williams is very underrated this week against a Falcons rushing defense, which ranks in the bottom 5 in the league against the run.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q5: LeSean McCoy owners are undoubtedly concerned about his early production. Give us your prediction for Shady’s stat line (rushing yards, receptions, TDs) vs. the Rams.

“Buy-low on LeSean McCoy, as any risk of him not truly bouncing back will be built into that buy-low value. I see him posting a line like this in Week 5: 60-70 rushing, 3-4 receptions for 40-50 yards and 1 TD.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

According to Pro Football Focus, Redskins RB Roy Helu rated top-five for running backs in pass protection in two of his first three seasons in the NFL.

SMITTY:Alfred Morris owners need to ensure that they handcuff these two rushers, as Roy Helu could be a very underrated fantasy scorer if forced to start for the Redskins in 2014. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings?

Below is a 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (in July), and below each round you will find my commentary/take on that round. This mock draft took place on our forums, so it’s a great indicator of current/true player values. The scoring for this fantasy football mock draft was assumed to be PPR, and it was done with a ‘redraft’ (2014 only) frame of mind. Thanks to all who participated. Enjoy.

Smitty’s Take: There weren’t very many surprises in round one, and their usually aren’t. Sure, a case can be made for Peyton Manning being round one worthy, but it’s not surprising to see him fall to 2.01. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are spot on in my book, and I can’t argue a bit with 1.04-1.12 (aside from pushing Manning into that 1.09-1.12 range, which isn’t everyone’s cup of tea).

Smitty’s Take: Ok, so this is where one draft will look completely different than another draft (even if that mock draft took place on the same exact forum 10 minutes later). I love the value of Montee Ball, even though his value has climbed higher than most expected (aside from us, as we predicted the climb). This is a redraft mock, but we’ve been pimping Ball since last season, and he and Nick Foles (and Christine Michael) have been our top “go get” players all off-season long. This was when Foles was still in most everyone’s bottom-half of their top ten-ranked passers, and this was before Ball started sniffing second-round value (he was even a 4th-round player on average back in February). In redraft, though, don’t shy away from making Ball your second-drafted player, as he is very likely to crank out top 1-5RB numbers in that extremely-potent Denver offense. I wouldn’t even shy away from grabbing him ahead of Lynch in round one. Crazy? Well, let’s talk come season’s end.

Aaron Rodgers probably seems high to some, and not high to others. Frankly, how high QBs go depends on your league and league trends, so anyone suggesting that Rodgers at 2.03 is too early, or too late, is obviously speaking based on trends that they see league-wide. His 2.03 slotting above is neither too early or too late, as he can easily earn top 15 overall value. Doug Martin has a touch more risk than upside at his 2.05 slotting above, but if you can handcuff him to Charles Sims, you can minimize most of that risk. But, if drafting at that spot, I would have let him slide to the 2.10-2.12 range, which is where I’m more comfortable snagging Martin in 2014; he has tons of talent, but he also has an injury label that he needs to shake, plus he has a potential sharing situation heading his way. Arian foster has awesome value heading into 2014, as he constantly falls in that late second-round range. He may go in the first-round in some leagues, as again, every league is different with players like this (faced injury the prior season and has some overworked concerns). He has top 5RB upside, so 2.10 is low-risk/high-reward in my opinion.

Smitty’s Take: I love the value of Gio Bernard at 3.01, but I don’t think you will see him fall that far on average. I could be wrong, and I sure hope that I am wrong, as I’d love this value in all my real upcoming 2014 fantasy football drafts. Gio Bernard is fantasy RB1-capable, yet he landed at 3.01 above… that’s crazy-good value, and again, that’s why I think that this won’t happen on average (he will more often be a 2.04-2.08 range player). Cordarrelle Patterson is now creeping into the 3rd-round in a lot of early 2014 mock drafts… expect this trend to continue, possibly even in the upward direction. He can earn that value, though, he has WR1-type upside, I just wonder if that production is still a year away. It might not be, but it gets a bit risky when you’re talking 3rd-round vs. 4th-round is all (I like him a lot in the 4th). Keenan Allen is another player that is climbing mock draft boards as of late, and let me tell you, I see the guy producing borderline low-end fantasy WR1-type numbers this year. He often falls into the 4th-round outside of STARTERS/DraftCalc communities, so snag him in the 4th-round where you can, as he can crush that value! Nick Foles is another player that ranks and gets drafted higher in DraftCalc and FFStarters worlds, so know that he often falls to the 4th-round, or even the 5th-round… and if I consider the 3rd-round still a steal (in terms of what he can do by season’s end), you can imagine how big of a steal he is to me at 4th- and 5th-round value. Use ADP data to your advantage and don’t draft Foles in the 3rd-round if you don’t have to, but I think we’re about to see Foles drop a top 3 fantasy QB season (with appearances with the top 1-2 on lots of occasions).

Smitty’s Take: Not a lot of surprises in terms of players falling into this round, but I will say that Andre Ellington is the only running back left that has top 5-10 fantasy running back upside. He has almost no risk as a 4th- to 5th-round pick, because he pulled in 39 receptions as a rookie, and 40-50 receptions feels like a given entering his first season as a starter. Ellington has HUGE, HUGE upside! I can’t wait to watch him breakout!

Just Missed The Cut

Now, a 4th-round argument can be made for any of the below players, especially Ben Tate (if handcuffed to Terrance West), Tom Brady, and Chris Johnson.

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