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Owners of professional sports teams have a lot of responsibility when it comes to the success of their franchise. They are the ones putting up massive sums of money in an attempt to generate profit, but they also control the direction of personnel hirings. Much can be said about terrible owners in other sports, such as James Dolan of the Knicks, who can’t seem to get over his love affair with Isaiah Thomas. However, Dolan at least supports his team and his city and wants the best for them. Recent events have revealed an NFL owner who does not display this courtesy, in addition to ineptitude.

All in all, it was a pretty typical offseason as far as upheaval in the NFL head coaching ranks goes. Since the dust finally seems settled (only Atlanta’s head coaching job remains open, and it’s all but given that Seahawks DC Dan Quinn will immediately take it following the Super Bowl), I thought I’d look at all the moves made (and the moves not made) and offer my thoughts.

New York Jets

Though I like Rex Ryan as a head coach in general, I felt it was time for New York to move on from him. After six years, and nearly every major offensive component turning over at least once while Ryan was head coach– GMs, offensive coordinators, starting quarterbacks– the ultimate responsibility for failing to field an offense that could allow the team to compete is on him. (Chase Stuart of Football Perspective has a much more detailed account of Ryan’s flaws and the circumstances that demanded his firing.)

Todd Bowles has been a rising star in the coaching ranks after two years of maintaining the high standard of performance as Arizona’s defensive coordinator that was established when Ray Horton had the job. I think it’s a solid hire; I certainly prefer hiring a rising assistant to a known mediocrity.

I’m really intrigued by his hire of Chan Gailey as OC. While Gailey at first glance might seem like another face in a sea of retread coaches, he’s one of the more innovative faces there, having a history of developing unconventional offenses to maximize his talent at hand (most notably with Kansas City in 2008, when, left with only Tyler Thigpen at QB, he resorted to a spread attack similar to the one Thigpen ran at Coastal Carolina). That track record intrigues me, because it makes me think Gailey will do whatever is necessary to maximize his offensive talent and performance at QB– whether that QB is Geno Smith or someone else.

Buffalo Bills

In one of the most unusual moves in head-coaching history, Doug Marrone opted out of his contract due to a clause, that as far as I know, has never been executed in NFL history: The “If the owner dies and the team is sold, I can opt out of my deal after two years” contract. Marrone opted out of his deal, and though he was rumored as a hot head-coaching candidate for the available jobs, particularly the Jets and Falcons, he ultimately took the job of offensive line coach and assistant head coach in Jacksonville, not exactly a lateral move.

Marrone’s failure to find another head-coaching job wasn’t a total surprise; rumbles from Buffalo were that he was significantly overrated and had little to do with the team’s success (he’s an offensive coach, which means he is responsible for the team’s stagnant offense the last two seasons, and the complete disaster of the E.J. Manuel selection and development). Rex Ryan seems like a solid hire, although his specialty– rushing the passer– is something the team already does well, and he won’t fix the offensive problems the team has had the last several years.

Atlanta Falcons

I’m not surprised by Mike Smith’s firing: despite opening his career with five straight playoff appearances, the team cratered in 2013 and 2014, and while injuries and a thin roster played a serious part, so did his absolute terror at fourth-down situations and his inexplicable time management. The Falcons became a bad team at about the same time Smith lost his aggression on fourth-down situations.

I don’t know much about Dan Quinn, but he’s the second defensive coordinator to be hired away from Seattle since 2013, and I think Gus Bradley is doing well despite a poor record for two seasons. Without more specific information on Quinn, I expect he’s a solid hire, especially for a team that already has the most important building blocks to an elite passing offense and needs help revitalizing the defense.

Denver Broncos

I have mixed opinions about John Fox, but ultimately I think John Elway made a gutsy move to fire him. While Fox has always brought a solid defense with him wherever he goes, he actually doesn’t have a particularly impressive track record– only three winning seasons in ten before Peyton Manning became his starting quarterback; he’s basically the non-scumbag Jeff Fisher– and his overly conservative approach to offense was holding the team back. We saw it two years ago in the playoffs, when Fox sat on the ball at the end of the first half and again at regulation, despite having timeouts and, you know, possibly the greatest quarterback of all time behind center. This year, Fox seemed to not prepare for the divisional playoff game at all: the offense was anemic and a defense that had finished fourth in the regular season was invisible. I’ve heard rumors that Fox is one of those guys that treats the playoffs as “just another game,” not introducing new wrinkles or opponent-specific concepts into his gameplans. I think any coach that does this is giving up significant win equity, and in that sense, I absolutely agree with Elway that Fox would keep the team from reaching the next level.

Unfortunately, Elway replaced Fox with Gary Kubiak, someone even more averse to scoring points and offensive aggression (even more bizarre since he’s an offensive coach), and someone whose offensive system of play-action rollouts and bootlegs isn’t well-suited to Manning. I am skeptical this will work, and it would be a real shame if Peyton Manning’s career ended with another playoff upset caused in part by a head coach holding him back.

Chicago Bears

I ranked Marc Trestman much higher in my coaching rankings last year for a few reasons: I believed he had a much better sense of creating a strong offense and playing to his team’s strengths (Lovie Smith and his offensive coordinators stubbornly clung to deep dropbacks with a poor offensive line, subpar receiving talent, and removing Matt Forte at the goal line), as well as a much better sense of in-game situational management.

Fast-forward a year and it seems he completely lost the locker room. Obviously a guy has to go when that happens; what I don’t understand is how that happened. Without a better idea of why, I can’t say what Trestman should have done differently or if he deserves another chance to be a head coach someday. He’s on to be the new offensive coordinator in Baltimore, replacing Gary Kubiak.

John Fox is the new man in Chicago. If he can fix the defense, he’s a good hire, but you just read my concerns about him, and it’s possible he makes the offense even worse and more inconsistent than it was in 2014.

Oakland Raiders

Since the team dismissed Dennis Allen midseason and installed Tony Sparano as interim coach, a full-time replacement has been long in the making. I’m not sure why the team was so gung-ho about Jack Del Rio (and even more baffled that the team’s only apparent serious head coaching candidates were Del Rio and Sparano). Jokes about potentially dropping an axe on Khalil Mack’s foot aside, Del Rio has a 68-71 record as a head coach, with only two playoff appearances in nine seasons. The team looked at two mediocre retreads; I simply don’t understand the aversion to bringing in new blood, someone whose track record may be shorter but at least isn’t mediocre.

Del Rio’s first hire was Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator. Musgrave’s history of coordinating NFL offenses is, frankly, not good. However, he was Matt Ryan’s quarterback coach for his first three years in the league, and I suppose Del Rio has some hope he can develop Derek Carr in the same manner. Or maybe Del Rio is just hiring his old buddy from the 2003-04 Jaguars (team record: 14-18). Given that Del Rio’s head-coaching record screams “mediocre retread,” my first thought is that Musgrave falls into the same category.

(Yes, I used the phrase “mediocre retread” a lot. Get used to it. The NFL has Mediocre Retread Syndrome.)

San Francisco 49ers

Jim Tomsula may be an inspired head-coaching hire, but I strongly believe this was the culmination of a series of moves designed to compete long enough simply to secure a new stadium before returning to running the team on the cheap. Jed York should be embarrassed.

Other Situations

Miami: I don’t know why the team retained Joe Philbin. Bill Lazor was a smart OC hire, and one of the biggest reasons the team improved, but Philbin still seems clueless and cowardly when it comes to in-game decisions.
Of course, the entire power structure in Miami is a mess, and the team just brought in Mike Tannenbaum for some reason, so I’ll continue to expect a certain level of dysfunction from the team as long as Stephen Ross owns it.

Tennessee: This is the horrible team no one talks about. Ruston Webster has been embarrassingly bad at identifying talent (the guy brought you the Shonn Greene – Bishop Sankey two-headed backfield; need I say more?). Without Kurt Warner to carry him, Ken Whisenhunt has never shown anything as a head coach except a fascination for QBs with huge arms and horrible accuracy.
Bud Adams died (good riddance to the guy who robbed Houston of the Oilers franchise) and his son Tommy seems yet to have noticed how terrible his team is. I’d clean out everyone; Adams the Younger barely seems to have considered that option after a 2-14 season where the team was completely non-competitive outside of a bizarre fluke week 1 win.

Washington: Jay Gruden doesn’t want to work with Robert Griffin. Jay Gruden should be fired, then. Quarterbacks with Griffin’s talent are rare, and if you’re a coach who refuses to maximize those talents, you are not doing your job and should be fired for cause.
Scot McCloughan is an inspired choice to head personnel, but who knows what actual power he’ll wield for the league’s most dysfunctional franchise? The most interesting thing about the Washington franchise is how deep Dan Snyder will dig in to embarrass himself over the team’s racist nickname.

Tampa Bay: Hopefully Lovie Smith’s performance this year forever dispels the myth of “steady veteran leadership” at the head coaching position. I didn’t think it was possible for this team to be worse than it was under Greg Schiano last year, but, surprise!
The team is alarmingly bereft of talent and very few of their free-agent signings and draft picks have worked. (Really, the team should promote whoever’s in charge of wide receiver scouting to run things, because Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson have been the only clear successes.) Much like their South Beach counterparts, this team has a messy org chart and a certain level of dysfunction that seems to stem from the very top. (Jacksonville may well have the brightest future of the Florida teams.)

A couple of pieces we wrote about incoming rookies that are newly relevant with recent player developments. These both happen to be in the AFC South:

With Zach Mettenberger taking over the starting job in Tennessee, you may want to read vix’s breakdown of his game. In general, Zone Reads had Mettenberger ranked much more highly than his sixth-round draft position.

I wanted to wait to write this column until the 53-man roster deadline had passed, until teams had used the waiver wire to stock the bottom of their rosters from other team’s castoffs. Now that the dust has settled, we’ll look at some day-three picks we really like. These players represent a combination of value at their selection, contribution right away, and potential down the line. I’ve ranked them by order in which we had them ranked.

Henderson was an unusual prospect to grade, with worlds of physical talent dragged down by off-field problems and laziness in developing his technique. It was never clear at Miami whether he just needed good coaching or didn’t have the mental attitude, but all indicators are that he’ll start at right tackle for the Bills over second-round pick Cyrus Kouandijo.

Gaines is currently penciled in as one of the Rams’ starting cornerbacks opposite Janoris Jenkins. He had some strong games in the preseason, and while we believed in his abilities as a solid cover corner in various coverages, even we didn’t project a week-one starter.

Fales has a subpar arm, but showed some good skills in read progressions and decision-making. He didn’t post another 70%+ completion percentage in his senior year, but he was accurate enough. If he can develop his arm strength and refine his skills, he could have a solid career in the league.

Linsley was a late riser on our board, someone whose film turned out to be significantly better than expected. Conveniently enough for us, we’re going to see just how well that translates to the field very soon, thanks to J.C. Tretter’s injury.

Williamson was a star on the field for the Wildcats, a legitimate three-down linebacker who is strong at shedding blocks and making tackles while also being strong in pass coverage. He held his own for an overmatched Kentucky team, and don’t be surprised if he’s starting in the middle for the Titans soon.

Safety may be one of the more difficult positions for us to evaluate, as reliable all-22 film that includes full footage of the back end is tough to find. That said, Boston graded out well for us as a versatile safety who can tackle and hit. Given Carolina’s losses at safety in free agency (and the past-their-prime veterans they signed to fill the gaps), Boston could be starting sooner rather than later. At least he’ll have a front seven capable of making his job easy. Let vix take you into more detail.

Bradford needs some development to reach his potential but he showed high levels of athleticism, mostly as an edge rusher but occasionally in coverage too. He won’t be rushed into action in Green Bay; if he works on his craft and develops his technique and strength, he could be a solid all-around player.

Norwood was mostly regarded as a deep threat at Alabama, which is a little unfair, as he possesses quite a wide range of receiver skills, as well as good size and speed for the position. He had a camp injury that’s kept him buried on Seattle’s depth chart, but long-term he should be part of their rotation, perhaps even one day starting opposite Paul Richardson on the outside.

Ellington is a unique player, a speedy little slot receiver with moves, maneuvers, and vision like a running back. He’ll never be a traditional #1, but he’s the kind of guy who can have a role right away, and I hope the 49ers make the most of his skills. Vix can’t say enough good things about him.

I had to look up where Lindenwood is, too. Small-school prospects with little to no film against comparable competition are always a gamble, but Desir’s size-speed combo makes him worth it. (Supposedly there’s a tape out there where Desir goes up against John Brown of Pittsburgh St. (KS), Arizona’s third-round selection, but I haven’t been able to locate a copy.)

We may have been overrating the very large men who tend to leave the field during passing downs, as we put a number of defensive tackles higher on our board than where they actually were drafted. That said: Jones stands out a consistent, explosive force up the middle who if nothing else will force teams to keep blockers on him if they don’t want him in their backfields.

Another guy whose level of college competition surely caused NFL teams to be more bearish on him than we were. We saw a guy who, when he wasn’t getting double-teamed, showed great quickness and pad level for his size and ability to rush the passer from a 3-technique. Perhaps Akiem Hicks is a good comparison for possible upside.

Not a prospect with outstanding measurables, but man, can he play. Watch his tape from the Chick-Fil-A bowl against Texas A&M: In a game the Blue Devils eventually lost 52-48 (!), Cockrell was largely left in man coverage against Mike Evans and held him to four catches and no scores.

Bryant is a very raw prospect, but he’s a physical specimen. Considering guys with his kind of measurables who are even less developed as prospects go in the second round (Why hello there, latest member of the Carolina Panthers practice squad). It’s always a risk whether or not a guy like this develops, but he has admitted that he didn’t take his game as seriously in the past as he does now, which is a great sign of maturity especially for a young prospect. Even though he was inconsistent in college, he wasn’t so much so that you couldn’t reliably throw to him.

Yankey was a prospect much more highly rated in the public eye until he started sliding close to the draft, winding up in the fifth round. We still liked what we saw: a guard with terrific athleticism and great ability to pull, whose blocking needed some refinement but who should still be a solidly capable starter sooner rather than later. Maybe teams didn’t like that he slid inside in 2013 to make room for top offensive tackle prospect Andrus Peat.

What we liked about Dozier that elevated him over your typical small-school lineman prospect was what we saw in his footwork. He’s still developmental to a degree, naturally, but he has the feet to make us think he could play tackle someday (and has a non-zero chance to become a positive left tackle).

Smith fell in part because of a positive marijuana test at the Combine. He may have fallen in part because of his size. But for a linebacker prospect, his game speed is incredible, his coverage skills are excellent, and he’s still pretty solid at tackling and run support. C.J. Mosley is the better prospect as a classic every-down middle linebacker, but in a game that’s becoming less about big hits and more about speed and the aerial attack, Smith could be the kind of valuable coverage linebacker that doesn’t come along too often.

For perspective, we had Mettenberger ranked higher than Derek Carr. That was an outlier stance- Carr has much more physical talent overall, and comparing their athleticism would be unfair and mean– but Mettenberger combined a cannon arm with good decision-making and the willingness to stand in the pocket and take a hit. He played QB at a high level for LSU last year, and in the preseason showed some flashes he could develop into a throwback QB, a cannon-armed statue. Sadly for Jake Locker fans, I think that development may need to show as soon as next year.

In the 2005 NFL draft, three running backs were selected within the first five picks: Ronnie Brown (#2), Cedric Benson (#4), and Cadillac Williams (#5). Since then, we’ve seen Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller, and Trent Richardson all come off the board in the top 10. But we’ve seen a change in recent history: When the 2013 first round was completed, not a single running back had been picked, for the first time in the Super Bowl era. The Cincinnati Bengals made Giovani Bernard the first runner off the board with the 37th pick, the most selections in draft history before a running back was selected. That record lasted all of one year: The first running back off the board in 2014 didn’t come until the 54th pick, when the Titans chose Bishop Sankey out of the University of Washington. With the very next pick, the Bengals took another runner, Jeremy Hill out of LSU. Aside from playing the same position, these two players have little in common. Sankey is a quick, diminutive back who can run off-tackle, and Hill is a bruising power back who excels between the tackles.

ROUND 2, PICK 54

Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington

Standing 5’9″ and weighing 209 lbs., Bishop Sankey is not very physically imposing. He’s the same size as Bengals 2013 second-round pick Giovani Bernard, but without Bernard’s dynamic speed or vision. On the other hand, unlike Bernard, Sankey carried a huge workload for the University of Washington. He ran the ball 327 times last season, and two seasons ago had 289 carries – with major production despite the heavy usage. His competition in Tennessee consists of Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle. While Greene is sitting atop the depth chart as of right now and has been getting the bulk of the first-team reps in camp, this is very likely to change as the regular season approaches. Sankey will almost certainly be the starting running back on week 1. Let’s see what he brings to the table.

One strike against Sankey is that he rarely picks up yards after contact. He can, mind you: See here as he powers over Oregon State’s safety for a monster gain on 3rd-and-1. More representative of his game are plays like this, where he tries to avoid contact at the second level in lieu of trying to slip around tacklers. I don’t think it is unfair to expect a play like this to be a broken tackle most of the time. If not that, then certainly this needs to be a big run. These specific plays are unimportant, but in my view they are representative of Sankey’s overall game. We’ll see later that second-level tacklers are almost hopeless against the much larger Jeremy Hill.

Where the lack of size hurts Sankey in the power department, it does allow him to slip through tight spots. A bigger back is stuffed for no gain on this play. There’s barely a hole, but Sankey makes himself skinny and slips through one. Again, here, there doesn’t appear to be a lane (at least from the sideline angle), yet he finds a way to pick up yards. He works well in these tight spaces. On this play, watch how quickly his feet can move. It’s well blocked by the offensive line, sure, but that flash of agility is what I like most about his game.

Nobody will mistake him for LeSean McCoy or the aforementioned Gio Bernard, but Sankey can make some silky smooth cuts. Check out this play against BYU where he slides away from tacklers with ease with some nimble cuts to the right. He can make this kind of move going left as well, as seen here and here on identical-looking jump cuts. On this play, he does it in both directions, and turns no gain into a big play to the back side. Just like the chess piece, Bishop is best when zigzagging past would-be tacklers.

The worst of any of his rushing attempts (that I saw) was this play, where the tight end plows the defensive end out of the play, the receiver has full control of the cornerback, and the guard is well positioned to blow up the linebacker. All Sankey needs to do is follow the pulling guard and it will be off to the races. Instead, he impatiently cuts inside of the guard and only gains a few yards.

Overall he shows good vision. Here he patiently follows the guard, slips through a tight window, and maintains his balance through contact on a nice touchdown run. And on this play, he presses the run to the right until the linebackers commit in that direction, then cuts back to the left and is off for a 59-yard touchdown.

His most creative run is against UCLA: Anthony Barr is coming unblocked off of the edge here, and Sankey makes a play right out of a video game. First, he evades Barr, then he sees a crowd of defenders out to his left and cuts inside where he’s immediately met by a linebacker. Spin move, no problem! From there he puts his head down and picks up a tough nine yards.

Sankey’s game tapes at Draft Breakdown are full of off-tackle runs if you want to watch any more. I’ve shown you that Sankey can run inside a bit using his agility and that he’s much better running to the outside. I watched six games and only counted two major lapses in pass protection. He also has soft hands coming out of the backfield. While he’s not as spectacular as perhaps these plays I picked out demonstrate, I do expect him to immediately step in as the starter and be an upgrade for the Titans. His biggest problem is lack of power, and that’s one of the few positive attributes to Shonn Greene’s game. So, until Sankey proves otherwise, I don’t anticipate him getting too many carries in short yardage situations. I’m glad that I revisited Sankey before the season; he is a better player than I remembered when I first checked him out many months ago.

ROUND 2, PICK 55

Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU

The Bengals used second-round picks on running backs in back-to-back drafts, selecting Giovani Bernard in 2013 and Jeremy Hill in 2014. In stark contrast to Bernard (and Sankey), Hill is an imposing 6’2″, 236-lb. runner who thrives on smashing over and through second-level defenders. The days of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and his 3.4 yards per carry will come to a end shortly, as it makes both football and financial sense (saves $2.3M against the cap) to cut him. In any event, let’s see what Hill can do for the Bengals.

While Hill rushed for an average of 6.9 yards per carry in his final season at LSU, the number is misleading in a couple of ways. Whereas Sankey, for instance, carried the entire workload, Hill only ran the ball 203 times. Also, if you check out his gamelog for 2013, he contributed little in games against Alabama, Texas A&M, and Georgia. To be fair, he saved his best for last, as he carried LSU to victory against Iowa in the Outback Bowl, carrying the ball 28 times at an elite 7.7 YPC against a good defensive squad.

Hill is a pure north-south and between the tackles runner. His footwork on cuts are nothing like we saw with Sankey. For example, on this play, the Red Sea is temporarily parted to the left side. He sees it and runs in that direction, but by the time he gets there the defenders are better positioned. There’s a lack of suddenness in his footwork; he doesn’t possess the kind of agility you see in the “quick-twitch” runners. Here is a pitch play where you can really see the stiffness of his lower body. There aren’t many yards to be gained, granted, but I’m talking about his biomechanics. And how about this play? A runner who can explode outside scores here. The difference between Corey Dillon and Rudi Johnson, if you will.

There are three skills in which Hill excels: power, balance, and straight-line speed. These three traits can often all be seen in a single play. Arm tackles are hopeless. Here against Auburn he explodes straight ahead as if shot by a cannon. Those poor safeties have no chance to bring him down. Plays like this touchdown run against Iowa is where Bishop Sankey failed to make progress, but Hill is able to break on through (to the other side). All of this power at the second-level should translate immediately to the NFL.

Hue Jackson is taking over as offensive coordinator for the Bengals. In his very first press conference Jackson talked about being a more physical team with an emphasis on running, and that was before the team drafted Hill. According to wide receiver Marvin Jones, the new offense is “very up-tempo” with “a lot of aggression.” The Eagles offense last season combined a fast tempo with a lot of running; perhaps this is what we’ll see from the Bengals this year. The lightning-and-thunder (can we get a better nickname?) duo of Bernard and Hill along with the play action threat of A.J. Green is certain to keep opposing defensive coordinators up late at night for years to come. The Bengals have a greatest-show-on-grass amount of talent at offensive skill positions… with Andy Dalton at the helm. Can you imagine Cam Newton with this group? Heh.

Sorry for the delay between posts, my sister just graduated from college and I’ve been busy with a few other things. In an attempt to rekindle interest, I’ll move onto the AFC South which has some of the more interesting off seasons to grade; three rebuilding teams with two of the top 3 draft picks, and a team that traded away its first round pick.

The initial rush of free agency is always exciting. We already have some surprise moves, such as the Bucs cutting Revis who instantly signed with the Patriots. It’s essentially a 1 year deal, and he will be back on the market next year, assuming the Pats don’t want to pay him $20M in 2015. Theres been a flurry of other moves, and many low key ones made by the Jaguars. Needle is a lifelong Jags fan, and seems to follow a path of optimism until being utterly flabbergasted by the moves his team makes. As a Jets fan myself, I feel his pain, and I’ll start with the Jags to show him that it’s not so bad.