Who will win Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly Election 2012? Opinion Poll

Finally, Election Commission of India announced dates for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election which slightly surprised Mayawati lead BSP because it was looking for election dates after March to fight upcoming Rajya Sabha Elections from UP with present strength of MLAs. Though, after the official announcement, only option available with all political parties is to accept this decision. Election Commission has decided to conduct UP elections in seven phases which are highest numbers of phases ever used for any state election in India. Voting for all phases of UP Assembly Election 2012 will take place in the month of February, 2012 (For more detail on dates visit
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2012 All Dates ). Final voting for all seven phases will take place on 4th of March, 2012. UP assembly election will take place along with four other assembly elections in the states of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakand. Out of all these states, Uttar Pradesh is biggest state and has very significant political influence.

UP Assembly have 403 seats and any political party or alliance need victory in 202 seats to make next government in state, In 2007, Assembly Election BSP got absolute majority in UP assembly by winning 206 seats which surprised many political pundits and analysts. BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) did this miracle after so many hung assemblies in state with the support of Dalit and Brahmin voters. Before, 2007 no one tried such strategy of getting support from Brahmin and Dalit class. In 2007 assembly election, BSP filled many Brahmin candidates and succeeded in getting support of Brahmin class. Second runner up in 2007 assembly election was Samajwadi Party (SP) which got 97 seats. Bhartiya Janata Party lead NDA alliances just succeeded in 51 seats while Congress registered win in 22 seats.

This time, main fight in Uttar Pradesh is between BSP, SP, BJP (Alliance) and Congress (Alliance). Though, BJP alliance looks in trouble at this stage with many existing parties opting out of Alliance. Congress has tied up with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) which got 10 seats in last assembly election. BSP and SP are going alone in this election. Main competition in UP is between these four major parties or alliances; therefore, many political pundits believe that 2012 UP assembly will be hung. On the other hand ruling BSP wants to repeat same success of 2007 assembly election; though, BSP knows it that it is not going easy for it to do so. This time, it is unlikely to get same support from Brahmin Voters plus its Dalit base may get some dent by Congress. To compensate all this, Mayawati announced just before election to divide state of UP in to four separate states because of long pending demand of such divide. Further, Mayawati asked for Muslim Reservation to attract Muslim Voters. In this way, Mayawati lead BSP tried to get new voters and retain Utter Pradesh power with it.

Biggest rival of BSP is Samajwadi Party which enjoys strong base among Muslim and Yadav voters. This time again SP is depending on same strategy and it is working hard to get back its lost Muslim vote bank which went away from it during US-India Nuclear deal and SP support to Congress government. Despite all hard effort, SP is unlikely to make UP government at its own; though, it can look forward to make government with the help of other parties like Congress. Therefore, main strategy of SP will be to emerge largest party in UP.

BJP alliance was once favorite alliance in UP look to have lost its main support in UP and many of its alliance members have decided to fight alone. BJP needs a very strong strategy for any comeback which looks unlikely at this point. Though, BJP is trying some old tricks of getting support of religious leaders.

Congress emerged biggest party in state during 2009 Loksabha Election by winning 21 Loksabha seats fighting alone. Everyone got surprised by this win of Congress because in 2007 UP assembly election Congress got just 22 seats. Now Congress has allied with RLD which has Considerable base in North UP. IF we go by 2009 Loksabha election then this alliance got biggest numbers of seats in UP (21+5= 26 out of 80). Congress also depends of aggressive strategy of Rahul Gandhi who is on UP Mission from last few years. Despite the hard efforts of Rahul Gandhi and its new alliance, it is very hard for Congress to get absolute majority in election.

If we go by all facts then it is going to be very tough competition in UP because every political party is trying to dent vote bank of other party and slight up or down swing in votes can make or break any party future. Under present conditions, it looks that UP is again going for hung assembly.