Brutal winters may become the norm

Staten Island Advance/Jan Somma-HammelMore snowstorms, like the post-Christmas blizzard that began a winter of discontent, may be in store for the Northeast.

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- Although skeptics may point to the viciousness of this winter in New York as sound evidence against global warming, this type of battering succession of storms may actually become the norm in New York as the planet heats up, according to scientists.

The 10 warmest years after records began in 1854 have all occurred since 1998, according to new data released by the World Meteorological Organization -- with 2010 tying with 1998 and 2005 as the warmest.

This trend translates for Staten Islanders into more intense pummelings of rain and snow, coming down in more powerful bursts, like nor'easters and hurricanes.

"The 2010 data confirm the Earth's significant long-term warming trend," said Michel Jarraud, the top official of the agency, which based its findings on data collected by Britain's Meteorological Office, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center and NASA.

The warming trend has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic, the findings show.

Significantly cooler weather was also registered toward the end of last year, especially in northern Europe, parts of Russia and in the eastern United States.

"Globally speaking, the hydrologic cycle will intensify, with more evaporation, more precipitation. Regions that are wetter will become even wetter, and regions that are dry will become dryer," said Athanasios Koutavas, a professor of climate paleontology at the College of Staten Island, who studies the world's weather patterns.

"It is entirely consistent as we go toward a warmer climate, the Northeast will experience more precipitation."

He said to expect a future with more of the type of strong weather that caused the now-notorious post-Christmas blizzard which laid waste to the landscape and had Islanders making comparisons to the film, "The Day After Tomorrow."

"There are studies that show precipitation is coming down in stronger events," he said. "We are going to be getting more rain and snow; the snow storms will deliver more snowfall than in the past. These are the general predictions, and this winter seems to speak to those trends."

Mayor Michael Bloomberg's Panel on Climate Change has also said more intense storms are "extremely likely."

The panel of experts who are helping the city prepare for future weather patterns have said that the mean annual temperatures in New York could rise by as much as 3 degrees by the 2020s and the average sea levels will rise by 2 to 5 inches. By the end of this century, the sea level could be one to two feet higher in the city and storms of epic proportions (so-called 100-year storms) could start arriving every 15 to 35 years, the panel forecasts

New flood maps are set soon to replace the current map drawn in the 1980s, and should include wider swaths of at-risk land. Discussions are also afoot about how to bolster the city's ability to tolerate such intense storms, and proposals include the installation of storm surge barriers in the lower bay.

"We are taking steps to improve our resilience to climate change," said Jason Post, a spokesman for the mayor.