Oscars 2014: Final predictions in all 24 categories

Read the story: Our Oscar predictions in all 24 categories And the Oscar goes to ... ? Here are our early predictions for every category for the 86th Academy Awards show. Use them for your own Oscar pool ballot at your own risk -- there's no money-back guarantee. By Glenn Whipp (By Glenn Whipp)

Glenn Whipp

You should have your Oscar pool by now. Twenty-four categories. One hundred and twenty-one choices. And, no, "The Lego Movie" is not among them. (Next year. Next year.)

We've been here for you for the last six months, starting back in September when "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" pulled to the front of the pack after wowing at the Telluride and Toronto film festivals. And here we are ... yes, same as it ever was, with the Oscars coming around the bend on Sunday.

So, one last time, the envelopes, please. Here are our final picks, including two new (and hopefully improved) picks in the editing and live-action short categories that will seal the deal for you if you're playing at home.

And the winner is: "12 Years a Slave." With so many choices, it feels like a year when picture and director will split. Some pundits see "Gravity" winning as the result of the academy's preferential voting system, which rewards movies that win a broad consensus. But "12 Years" should pick up plenty of first-place votes and appear high on a lot of ballots. Admittedly, it's a gut pick. But we're sticking with it.

And the winner is: "American Hustle" probably won't win many Oscars, yet academy members will want to acknowledge it somewhere. This is the likeliest place, though it faces a tough challenge from "Her." Still, it seems counterintuitive to believe that voters loved "Hustle" enough to reward it with the most nominations (along with "Gravity") and then shut it out completely.

And the winner is: “Gatsby.” Flash and fabric always rule, and "Gatsby" edges out "Hustle" on those counts. It wouldn't be shocking though if "Hustle," a best picture nominee filled with polyester and plunging necklines, pulls off an upset.

And the winner is: "Captain Phillips." We originally leaned toward “Gravity,” but Rouse gave “Phillips” a gripping urgency and is the more obvious piece of work. Should voters go for "Gravity" in a big way, it will be part of the sweep here.

And the winner is: “Dallas Buyers Club.” With a median age of 63, the academy is not quite ready to hear “And the Oscar goes to ... ‘Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa!’” Not to mention the fact that not enough voters saw it in the first place. Go with the best picture nominee.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2,” music and lyrics by Pharrell Williams; “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; “The Moon Song” from “Her,” music by Karen O, lyrics by Karen O and Spike Jonze; “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom,” music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen, lyrics by Paul Hewson

And the winner is: “Let It Go.” Because there isn’t a singalong version of “Mandela,” is there?

And the winner is: "Helium." A number of academy members have told me how much they loved this sentimental story of a dying boy, so we're going with that. Yes, “The Voorman Problem" is the only one without subtitles. And it has Martin Freeman. But it's slight. And it just doesn't seem to be moving the needle with voters.