India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and north Arabian Sea on Friday.

The withdrawal line passed through Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer, Deesa and Porbandar.

The western end of the monsoon trough is running close to the foothills of Himalayas, indicating weak or nil activity over northwest India.

DEPRESSION WEAKENS

The eastern end is still being kept active by Thursday's depression that has since weakened into a well-marked low-pressure system.

The eastern end passed through Gorakhpur, Daltongunj, centre of the low-pressure system (Jamshedpur) and Balasore before dipping southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.

The withdrawal process is now expected to run into residual monsoon activity over east and northeast India.

Interior peninsula too is forecast to be devoid of any major rain activity, though the east coast could witness some wet weather principally as an extension of the emerging storminess northwest Pacific and South China Sea.

PACIFIC DEPRESSION

True to forecasts, a monsoon depression has already sprung up afresh over northwest Pacific close to northeast Philippines.

Global models indicate the possibility of this system dropping anchor in the South China Sea basin where it would intensify into a tropical storm.

This is forecast to send in a ‘pulse' across Indochina into the Bay of Bengal to lit up the waters there and trigger rains along the southern Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts and into the peninsula.

WEATHER WARNING

A weather warning issued by the IMD said that the well-marked ‘low' over east India would trigger isolated heavy rainfall over east Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya on Saturday and Sunday.

An extended forecast valid until Wednesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over parts of east and northeast India.

The weather is expected to continue to remain mainly dry over many parts of northwest and adjoining central India.

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People in Chennai cant forget the record rains we got in August 2011, where 120 year records were shattered by a distance. Particularly the 156 mm rainfall on 24th August, 2011 when thunderstorms formed in the evening kept on coming like a bubble till early morning.

Yesterdays rainfall is also similar, first storms were spotted in radar in the evening and the storms kept on coming like a bubble till early morning. Chennai got 76 mm from this TS, thus crossing 800 mm for the year before the start of NE monsoon. Recently, Chennai's annual rainfall is increased from 1220 mm to 1400 mm by IMD and the last 10 year average works out 1460 mm with 2560 mm received in 2005 being the highest.

We have received 836 mm till today morning, considering the rainfall and daily thunderstorms coming close to Chennai, we have to rethink whether Chennai really falls under rain shadow region. More studies have to initiated by IMD to study this daily phenomenon of Thunderstorms coming above and below belts of Chennai (from Pulicat to Pondicherry). The Radar at Chennai is also the best in India, because of less interference from height restrictions IMD has put in place for Construction of High Rise buildings.

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