EURUSD retracement is happening much lower than we expected originally, but we finally see the confirmation of change of trend pattern on 30 Min chart. First higher low is a good sign of bears out of the way. Stochastics are about to turn, which suggests a perfect entry “now or never”. We are long from 1.3020 – as soon as 30 Min chart produced a clear bottom.

Stop Loss, as usually – below previous lows, around 1.2980. The target is a bit tricky. Normally we would expect a 30-35% retracement from such a sharp drop (see 4H chart). But the lack of strong trend on weekly and monthly charts can create doubts in traders ahead of those levels. We would expect the most conservative traders start coming out as soon as 1.31 is penetrated and a new bunch of bears trying to put the pair down again around 1.3140-50 level.

USDJPY had a long run up, but looking at the monthly chart we think it is time for it to retrace to at least 88 before deciding on the trend. The main reasons we see the turn – 50% retracement level against Jun 2007 tops, running into dinamical resistance of 200 Monthly MA and significant overstretch in buying momentum. Supported by bigger picture we are now looking into recent developments on the 4H chart.

Even though the speed of falling was not that impressive in the past weeks, the pair stalled at 50% Fib (see the chart) and failed to produce a higher peak than the previous one. Which shows that bears are still dominating the market and can push the pair to 86-88 level as monthly chart suggests. We entered the short trade this morning around 98 level, targeting a mid-term structure with 94 Profit levels to start with. The whole trade is at risk at themoment as 1 Hours chart still did not produce a valid lower low to signify the change of trend on a smaller scale. So we keep an eye on 99 level as potential Stop Loss and watch stocks to develope into more convincing pattern.

AUDJPY finished last week with a spining bottom candlestick on a weekly chart. Pay attention to Bollinger Bands very close to the previous candle – we use 3 standard deviations set, so the probability of penetrating them is very low. Turn in the mood should be expected with a wave of buyers coming into the market. 50% Fib level and diagonal support suggest a nice blue candle next week. We even expect market to open in 4 hours with a small gap up. However, on a smaller scale the pair is not showing a strong sharp reverse patterns, so beware of bears trying to squeeze another bottom check before the turn.

A rare guest in our technical analysis – EURAUD. There is no point to show you any smaller time frames, because the pair is going up with almost only green (blue on our charts) candles on 1H, 4H, daily and weekly. We were expecting a strong resistance at 1.4000 round figure – it did stop the beast several times before. At the same level was weekly 200 EMA, plus candles started touching our Bollinger Bands, which are 3 deviations apart against normal 2. To be fair, EURAUD did stop at the level. But only for a week and never even considered to show any change-of-the-trend patterns. So, where are we going? Sky is the limit?

If you were smart/lucky enough to long the pair below 1.28 – you have a good chance that it will make you even more rich. But if you entered above, or even thinking about buying it now – that is far far too risky. Yes, we do think it is going to hit Monthly 200 EMA and stall only between 1.53-1.55. But it is a cross pair,heavily depending on it’s major contributors EUR and AUD technicals and fundamentals against USD. It can have a little dip before going, taking in account how overstretched is all buying momentums on all timescales.

Rare opportunity to have an easy spotted perfect entry: previous peaks on a daily chart are exactly on the same level as a major Fibonacci level, as well as a round number 1.32. On top of that it is a 21 EMA, which usually acts as a temporary support for a pair that deviated so much away from it in the last weeks. All in all – if you entered a long scalping trade at or below 1.32 – a big applause.

Now the tricky part with retracements is the target. It was quite a sheer drop, based on mostly rumours of what actually is going on in China, rather than anything else. If nothing nasty is coming to the markets in the next 24 hours, scalpers and hedgers will pull it back somewhere just below the previous tops. To avoid the risk, our strategy would be to quit before the weekend no matter what, but for now we set the target at 1.3330 and let’s see how it would be cooking

And the Stop Loss – the king of the risk. We do not expect any big players to risk selling EUR at these levels, so new lows today or tomorrow are unlikely (especially at such a all-round support level). Stop Loss can be quite tight at 1.3280, but we prefer to keep an eye on the market instead and give room to the automated exits setting SL at 1.3248.

EURUSD was rocking for quite a while, but we think it is time to sell. On 4H chart the pair touched extreme levels of Daily Pivot Point, which suggests a temporary or permanent turn. Usually the chart reverses and declines at least until the S2 pivot point on the next day. We cannot calculate pivot points for tomorrow, but current estimations show S2 pivot to be below 1.33 level. However, if we consider how overheated is the buying momentum, the sell-off can easily go down to a more substantial support. Let’s look at the daily chart to see a bigger picture:

Caution for those holding AUDUSD short – the pair approaching a minor support level. Given exhaustion of the stochs on all shrter timeframes (30 Min, 1H, 4H) and recent fail to produce a new low on 15 Min chart – we are entering a short term long trade with target between 95.20-95.40, stop loss: 93.90.