Wednesday, May 21

Broadening the Scope

For the next month we’ll hear plenty of talk about who the Sonics should take with the #4 pick in the 2008 draft.

And, I’ll admit, on first blush, I was convinced Seattle should take Jerryd Bayless or OJ Mayo with the pick because getting a new point guard was essential to the team’s success.

You see, after 20 years of rooting for this team I’ve grown accustomed to hoping that their off-season moves will catapult them to a new level in the upcoming season. That’s the way it works as a fan – you expect your team to make moves to produce more wins in the year(s) to come.

But that’s not the case with this team because here’s the cold and honest truth: Barring some unforeseen changes in the cosmos, the Seattle Sonics are not going to be contending for a playoff spot next year, and most likely not the year after, either.

That kind of takes the urgency away from getting a point guard this year, doesn’t it? In fact, rather than “In It to Win It,” perhaps next year’s slogan could be “In It to Get Some More Picks.”

So, rather than looking to fill immediate needs, the Sonics should instead take a hard look at the roster and ask this question: “Who among this Baker’s Dozen of players will be with us when we make a playoff run?”

Personally, I can see two or three – Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Nick Collison.

That’s it. One small forward, one small/power forward, and one power forward/center. In my estimation, everything else is as free and open as a land rush into the Louisiana Territory circa 1806. Meaning, therefore, center, power forward, shooting guard, and point guard are all possibilities in this draft.

Sure, getting Derrick Rose to ride shotgun along Durant fills a gaping hole in the team’s roster, but what difference would it have made in the team’s outlook for the 2008-09 season? From 20 wins to 25? From 25 to 30? Does it really matter?

Of course not. So, rather than just focusing on Jerryd Bayless and OJ Mayo, widen your scope to include Kevin Love (actually, forget him, unless you think the next Dave Cowens is what the Sonics need), Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, or even the possibility of trading down to get either yet another first rounder.

In most cases, in most years, teams look to throw a drafted player into a specific need, like repairing one chink in a broken dam. In Seattle’s case, though, that dam has more holes than the Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy, and not of the holes is more important than any other.

With all of this talk about snagging a "game changing" PG in the top of the draft and all of the hype surrounding the position this year, I thought it'd be interesting to look at the past 10 years and see what type of quality PGs were drafted in the top 5. Not nearly as many as there probably should be, but here's what I came up with:

I don't think you can fully assess Conley, Jr. yet because he's (A) a rookie and (B) a Grizzly. Livingston is an accident waiting to happen (literally). Out of the 9 point guards taken with a top 5 pick, Felton is the only true bust (and there's still time to change that, CP3 and Deron just set the bar a lot higher).

Point I'm making? I like our chances with a Top 5 PG. I say go Mayo. This is a guy who has been NBA ready about as long as he's been shaving. Should be a no-brainer at #4.

Nice workup, Drew. When you look at it from that perspective, it sure seems like the odds are in the Sonics' favor.

One piece of concern, though. due to the success of Williams and Paul, and the way those two have revitalized their franchises, you're going to see PGs valued much more than you did in the past. Because they will be valued more highly, they will be drafted more highly. In the past, PGs had to be great be selected ahead of big men, simply because of the hope of all GMs to find a great big man in the draft.

Because Mayo and Bayliss and Rose are all going top five doesn't necessarily mean that they are the equivalent of top five PGs of the past - it means that GMs are now more interested in finding the next Chris Paul than they are the next Stromile Swift.

I think with that #4, we should grab Mayo if he's available. I know he's had ridiculous expectations since, well, forever, but what sticks in my mind is him shutting Rose down early in the season. Long term, we'll need a two and a PG, so I guess he makes sense to me. Though I certainly wouldn't mind Bayless.

for the #24 pick, I'd like to suggest Richard Hendrix. I don't know why he's so low on most mock drafts, that dude is a beast playing on a mediocre team. Sounds like a Sonic to me.

I'd say Mayo's better than Bayless in every way except he's a higher risk attitude-wise. They both seem to be more combo guards who can handle point semi-well. The only problem with them I have is that if CDR or Rush is avaialable at 24, do we still take either of them?

I project that the Chicago Bulls will select its hometown boy, Derrick Rose, so Kirk Hinrich would thereby be put on the trading block.

As it is, one trade proposal that just recently crossed my mind was Hinrich, Drew Gooden, and Tyrus Thomas, being dealt to the Los Angeles Clippers for Elton Brand -- who's a former Bull and a bullish low-post presence on offense -- as well as Brevin Knight and Josh Powell.

Now, within my 2008 NBA Mock Draft, the first five selections are Rose, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez, O.J. Mayo, and Kevin Love. Because the Memphis Grizzlies desperately need production along its frontline, I expect that Love will move up and be selected by Chris Wallace at the fifth spot. The New York Knicks, therefore, will luckily have Jerryd Bayless fall into its lap.

Anyhow, with regards to the Seattle SuperSonics, I've got Sam Presti snatching a couple of prospects from the Pac-10 Conference, Mayo and Robin Lopez, with the team's two first-round draft picks. I predict that Presti will take Courtney Lee, Kyle Weaver, Shan Foster, and David Padgett with the team's second-round draft picks, too.

IMO, Miami would be getting a stud power forward who can run with marion and wade, and since the #4 pick will be either mayo or bayless, they could be getting a solid young point guard to put at pg, meaning wade will finally move into his natural sg position, instead of having to carry his team and bear the weight (injuries, anyone?). Since they're also getting the #24 pick in return for a 2nd round pick, Miami is trading up on their second pick also. The throw ins could be expiring contracts, and they could finally rid of jason williams.

Seattle would be getting Durant's so-called best friend Beasley, still getting a solid pick at the top of the 2nd round, where we have PLENTY of options to find a de-throner for Luke, maybe we could steal brook lopez? Jason William's contract is a tough thing to absorb but its expiring, so we could send his sorry ass back to the barbershop where he could finally get a proper haircut while hes sitting around in free agency.

I threw in marshall as a suggestion because I don't want a stripping laughingstock on the bench. Hell, in a throwup between Radmanovic, and Marshall, i'd take Radman in a heartbeat.

While we're on the subject. Can we somehow convince Sacramento to give us Artest (and his huge contract that the Maloofs can't afford) and Hawes for Watson, Swift, and whoever else they want to pluck from our roster. If we can do a three way with Charlotte and get Morrison, i think we're a lock for divisional champs.

All this dreaming makes me happier than being at a Sublime concert, but sweet, but then i remember, crikey, i've just been abducted by Carpetbagger Clay along with the rest of the Green and Gold fanbase. Damn that cruel joker in the sky. and by that, i mean David Stern.

3. Indeed, the Miami Heat aren't trading the 2nd pick in the 2008 NBA Draft under any circumstances.

"IMO, Miami would be getting a stud power forward who can run with marion and wade, and since the #4 pick will be either mayo or bayless, they could be getting a solid young point guard to put at pg, meaning wade will finally move into his natural sg position, instead of having to carry his team and bear the weight (injuries, anyone?). Since they're also getting the #24 pick in return for a 2nd round pick, Miami is trading up on their second pick also. The throw ins could be expiring contracts, and they could finally rid of jason williams."

1. The Miami Heat have no need for Chris Wilcox -- who's definitely not a "stud" -- as Udonis Haslem is currently the team's power forward. Haslem could lose his starting gig to Michael Beasley, though.

2. Beasley and Derrick Rose are infinitely more valuable than a role player like Wilcox—there's no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

3. Dwyane Wade hasn't regularly played point guard since the 2004-2005 season, which was when he started alongside Damon Jones.

4. Wade's injury history doesn't pertain to what position he plays in the backcourt, but rather his tendency to drive toward the basket with reckless abandon.

5. Neither O.J. Mayo nor Jerryd Bayless are point guards. Why do so many ignorant people believe that misconception?

"Seattle would be getting Durant's so-called best friend Beasley, still getting a solid pick at the top of the 2nd round, where we have PLENTY of options to find a de-throner for Luke, maybe we could steal brook lopez? Jason William's contract is a tough thing to absorb but its expiring, so we could send his sorry ass back to the barbershop where he could finally get a proper haircut while hes sitting around in free agency."

3. Williams has had a buzzcut for several years, so your joke makes no sense. Nonetheless, there's nothing wrong with shaggy hair.

"I threw in marshall as a suggestion because I don't want a stripping laughingstock on the bench. Hell, in a throwup between Radmanovic, and Marshall, i'd take Radman in a heartbeat."

1. How do you get off mentioning Vladimir Radmanovic in the same sentence as Donyell Marshall?

"While we're on the subject. Can we somehow convince Sacramento to give us Artest (and his huge contract that the Maloofs can't afford) and Hawes for Watson, Swift, and whoever else they want to pluck from our roster. If we can do a three way with Charlotte and get Morrison, i think we're a lock for divisional champs"

1. Geoff Petrie would immediately hang up the phone on such a doltishly slanted trade proposal.

2. Adam Morrison is a bust. Why, moreover, would you mock Williams' former hairstyle and not take a shot at Morrison grungy mane?

3. The Seattle SuperSonics won't make the playoffs next season.

"All this dreaming makes me happier than being at a Sublime concert, but sweet, but then i remember, crikey, i've just been abducted by Carpetbagger Clay along with the rest of the Green and Gold fanbase. Damn that cruel joker in the sky. and by that, i mean David Stern."

1. While Bradley Nowell and ska music are long dead, the Sonics still have slight, yet hypothetical chace of surviving beyond 2010.

Here's my thoughts on the two most probable, Mayo and Bayless. Neither are points yet, Mayo seems to have better court vision and is more likely to become a good point guard. He's also bigger, so if he has to play the 2 then he will be able to defend there, something Bayless at 6-3 isn't going to be able to do. Bayless is, at best, going to be a Gordon kind of player to me. Can score at will (admittedly a lot quicker and better at driving than Gordon), but not a PG and too small for SG. \

Therefore Mayo seems better choice-more likely to be a PG, and bigger at SG if he has to play there. And he wants to play defence, which is a novel idea in young players these days....

So based on the last two posts, everyone seems convinced that Durant won't stick at the 2. Why is that? Is he too slow to guard the position? On the offensive end, one would think a 6-9 shooting guard is a lot harder to guard than a 6-9 small forward... Wouldn't a lineup of:

1-Mayo2-Durant3-Green4-Collison (or someone else)5-next year's pick?

down the line be pretty intriguing? If nothing else, we'd cause a lot of matchup problems...

"Here's my thoughts on the two most probable, Mayo and Bayless. Neither are points yet, Mayo seems to have better court vision and is more likely to become a good point guard. He's also bigger, so if he has to play the 2 then he will be able to defend there, something Bayless at 6-3 isn't going to be able to do. Bayless is, at best, going to be a Gordon kind of player to me. Can score at will (admittedly a lot quicker and better at driving than Gordon), but not a PG and too small for SG. " {Mark}

Jerryd Bayless is a notch better than Ben Gordon, as he's much quicker and can consistently draw fouls. Eric Gordon is actually more similar to Ben, with whom he ironically shares the same surname.

Bayless, à la Ellis and Williams, lacks the playmaking ability and court vision to effectively run the point. Bayless is a shitty defender, too, which is a big negative considering his small stature.

Hell, Ellis plays alongside Baron Davis for the Golden State Warriors -- while Williams partnered with Chris Duhon at Duke -- for a reason. Essentially, Bayless must have a backcourt teammate like Kirk Hinrich to mask his weaknesses at this level.

Conversely, O.J. Mayo seems to be a younger version of Gilbert Arenas. Mayo, however, probably won't ever develop into a true floor general; that same drawback hasn't hindered Arenas' career, though. Mayo reportedly has the same intense work ethic as Arenas, too, which is a huge positive.

"So based on the last two posts, everyone seems convinced that Durant won't stick at the 2. Why is that? Is he too slow to guard the position? On the offensive end, one would think a 6-9 shooting guard is a lot harder to guard than a 6-9 small forward..." {howard u}

Kevin Durant is too slow and unathletic -- as pure athleticism is an intrinsically different quality than fluidity -- to properly defend shooting guards.

Well, according to this article http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/364116_sonx22.html(fourth paragraph)PJ wants to play Durant at SG again, which seems to suggest that if they're getting a guard, they'll opt for the guard that's more ready to play point THIS year.Of course, Presti can get whomever he wants--PJ likely has minimal input into who gets drafted...

The numbers back up the argument that Durant belongs at SF rather than SG, specifically defensively. While the sample size of his SF numbers is very small compared to his SG numbers, he was much better at opp. FG% at the 3 than at the 2. I think that most people feel that long-term, Kevin Durant will be more effective playing forward than guard.

Thanks for the link, Howard. I can't understand why PJ is so committed to playing KD at the 2. I agree with your final sentence about PJ's input in the draft, though; I get the strong feeling that PJ will be long gone by the time this team is on the north side of 41 wins.

I was being a bit cool with my Bayless comparison......I still think its gonna be better for us to go for Mayo. Bayless is the definition of tweener-handle and passing not good enough, small. He is crazy fast though...

Durant-you can see why PJ is so keen on him being a SG. He's 6-9! at SG! and gives green more minutes at SF and them more minutes together. But he's a SF for sure. He can hopefully rebound better from SF too.

I'm finding it hard to get to into it because they'll be playing in OKC. Which, considering i'm from London, is weird in many ways.

With the injuries and slow development of the first round centers, are there any good free agent centers? Or can we trade for one? All the good centers should be gone at 24(why draft another one anyways?). Collison is too short to play center full-time. Its time to realize that all three first round centers are garbage. We need a center that defends well in the paint.

I remember reading that Emeka Okafor didn't sign an extension last year. Not sure if that's still true. Maybe hes a free agent. Or perhaps we could trade Wilcox or Collison + pick(s) for him if he's unhappy in Charlotte. I know he's listed as a pf, but he can play center. He is exactly what the sonics need. Kurt Thomas was a good defender and it showed when he was dealt, but Okafor is way better(and younger). Imagine that.

In a normal world, we'd be speculating about who the Sonics could go after in free agency this summer or next. But it ain't going to happen - there is no way in holy hell that Sam Presti has been authorized to spend any money on this team at this point in time. Between the team's chaotic relocation situation and their dearth of talent, it just won't happen. The only moves I see them making this summer are cost-cutting ones (e.g., dealing Watson or Ridnour or Wilkins for an expiring contract or two). Okafor is - I believe - a restricted free agent this year. No way the Sonics go after him, even though he'd be a nice fit for them at center.

Most likely, the Sonics see what happens over the summer and in the draft and either hope one of the late 1st-rounder or one of the 2nd-rounders is a decent shot blocker, or else they pick up a Mikki Moore-type player off the veteran free agent pile.

Bingo. If the Sonics want a true point, they should go for DJ Augustin. Luckily for the Sonics, they suck at every position except small forward right now, so Mayo would be an upgrade at the SG position.

Bluemax - OJ has everything going for him as an NBA player - size, shooting ability, aggressiveness, etc., but watching him play, would you say he looks like an NBA player? Is his talent enough to offset all the negatives surrounding him at the moment?

I'm a Sonics fan since '73-'74, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the team stays. They can get a great player at #4! I say take the best player available, regardless of position. That will likely be Mayo. Durant really is a SF, but he needs to bulk up a bit before he can play there regularly. Plus, that's Green's position, and it's important he be on the floor. The fact is that the overall talent level on the roster is horrible. To get better, an infusion of real talent is needed. Mayo is looks to be that player at #4. Better at this juncture not to make a lottery mistake like Swift, Sene or Danny freakin' Vranes because the team is drafting for position. That always backfires. Keep it simple.

Y'know, according to the ol' adage, "defense wins championships." As a result, I'd rather have Sam Presti draft Brook Lopez than Jerryd Bayless.

Because O.J. Mayo will likely be a top-three draft pick -- as he won't slip by the Minnesota Timberwolves, which is reportedly due to Vice President of Basketball Operations Kevin McHale and Assistant General Maager Fred Hoiberg's respective friendships with NBA sports agent Bill Duffy and USC Head Coach Tim Floyd -- I expect that Lopez will be the Seattle SuperSonics' selection with the 4th pick.

At any rate, Lopez is a stout man-to-man interior defender at the power forward position; addtionally, he possesses a multifaceted array of both high-post and low-post moves on offense. Yet, regarding Lopez's so-so field-goal percentage in college, that was probably adversely affected by his high usage rate.

Hell, with Stanford the past two seasons, Lopez was forced into being the main option on offense -- despite it not being is forte -- nonetheless, he did an admirable job.

Apropos of the most important thing in basketball (i.e., winning), Lopez has done much more with a lot less than Bayless. Shit, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise were massively greater teammates than Lawrence Hill, Anthony Goods, and Mitch Johnson.

I still want Presti to nab Robin Lopez with the 24th pick, too, and transplant this contemporary version of the "Twin Towers" up here.

With Brook's offensive versatility and top-notch man-to-man interior defense paired on the frontline alongside Robin's outstanding athleticism and great weakside help defense, the Sonics frontcourt will be set for a long time with them and Kevin Durant.

Yes, folks, I'm still not sold on Jeff Green. Honestly, Green's performance throughout his rookie campaign indicates that he's a backup combo foward who'll be best used in a seventh-man role.

All things considered, tweeners like Green, Boris Diaw, and Ryan Gomes are nothing more than role players on successful ballclubs and starters on shitty teams.

In conclusion, however, my whole point here is that Lopez is higher on my draft board than Bayless. I'm sure that most people will disagree with me, but that's their problem.

I wasn't that impressed with what I read about B Lopez but I'll try to revisit with open mind.

High usage / poor teammates is a decent argument for part of the FG% issue. But his face up jumpshot preference over power game is a big part of it too. Whether he can get the same shots he shot decently in college in the NBA is a real question. As is whether his not physical defense in college can or should continue in pros. He might fit the Sonics and the rest of big man cast if he can hit midrange jumpshot and limit FG% allowed without foulng much. It is an open question. Presti's answer?

Maybe they get the PG in late 1st round or pass this year and tank season again with the incumbent non-winners and get the PG of future ... in the future.