Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Wildrose Party used to support proportional
representation. Many Alberta provincial Liberals favoured PR too. The party's
website used to say "An Alberta Liberal government would organize a
Citizen’s Assembly on Electoral Reform, to determine if other voting systems —
including proportional representation — could improve participation and
representation in our democracy."

They were right. On April 23, "strategic voting" defeated Wildrose, at the cost of narrowing Alberta's political options, and letting 43.9% of the voters elect a one-party government. We've seen this movie before.

In Alberta’s 2008 provincial election,
the majority of voters stayed home. And in the 2011 federal election, while BC
had a 60.4% turnout and Saskatchewan had a 63.1% turnout, Alberta had only 55.8%.
Why? Because, outside of two or three ridings in Edmonton, the Conservatives
had safe seats. Why bother voting? This time the turnout jumped to 57%. But since last May's federal election had a 61% turnout, the 2006 election had a 65% turnout, and elections in the 1980s had a 75% turnout, 57% is hardly healthy.

So what would the Alberta Legislature look like under a PR model?

On the votes cast April 23, PC voters would have elected 40 of the 87 MLAs, Wildrose 30. Liberal voters would have elected eight MLAs, NDP voters eight, and Alberta Party voters one. A PC-Liberal Coalition Government?And voters in every region would have a voice in the Government, in the Official Opposition, and in the third and fourth party.If voters knew every vote would count,
more would have voted, and some would have voted differently. Alberta would
have had different candidates - likely more women, and more diversity of all
kinds. However, all I can do is project the votes cast in 2012 into a reformed
voting system.

I used a Mixed Member Proportional model with regional open lists. You still
have 87 MLAs. The 53 local MLAs are elected from districts larger than today's
(about five of today's districts become three larger districts.) The 34
regional top-up MLAs are elected from five regions.

You, the voter, have two votes: one for your local MLA, the other for the party
you want in government and for your favourite regional MLA candidate of your
party (like
the right-hand part of this ballot.) So you are free to vote for the best
candidate locally; only your regional ballot counts for your party. The
regional MLAs top up the local results, so the total result matches the vote
shares in the region. Every vote counts equally. And the regional seats are
filled by the party's regional candidates who get the most votes on the
regional ballot (unless that person was already elected to a local seat.)

Wildrose voters would have elected five of Edmonton’s regional MLAs instead of
being shut out. Assuming that is the five best runners-up, it would be Paul
Nemetchek, Garnett
Genuis, Travis Hughes, Peter Rodd and Jackie Lovely. They would have elected
seven of Calgary’s regional MLAs, not just two. Assuming that is the seven best
runners-up, it would be Bill Jarvis, Richard Jones, Jeevan Mangat, Paul
Hinman, Happy Mann, Tim Dyck, and Jasbir (Jesse) Minhas. From the 13
ridings of Northern Alberta, not just one MLA, but four regional MLAs: incumbent
Guy Boutilier, Maryann Chichak from Whitecourt, Kelly Hudson from Spirit
River, and Link Byfield. From Central Alberta’s 13 ridings, a regional MLA: Dave Nelson
from Metiskow.

Liberal voters would have elected MLAs
across Alberta, not just in Calgary and Edmonton. In Central Alberta, a regional
MLA: Michael Daweof Red
Deer. In the 13 ridings of Southern Alberta, a regional MLA: Rob
Miyashiro of Lethbridge. In the 23 Edmonton ridings, another MLA: Mo Elsalhy.

New Democrat voters would have elected MLAs across Alberta,not just in Edmonton. A regional MLA from Northern Alberta: Mandy
Melnyk from Redwater. In Central Alberta, a regional MLA: Bruce Hinkley from Wetaskiwin.
In Calgary, a regional MLA: Marc Power. In southern Alberta, a regional MLA: Shannon
Phillips from Lethbridge.

Alberta Party voters in Edmonton would have elected one of its founders,
Michael Walters.

All MLAs would have faced the voters,
and all votes would have counted. Democracy, eh?

Voters for all parties would be represented in all regions, except where they
had too few voters to elect even one regional MLA: Liberal Party voters in
Northern Alberta, and Alberta Party voters in most of Alberta. (Note: The Liberals would have elected an MLA in Northern Alberta except that 40% top-up MLAs was not quite enough when the PCs swept 12 of those 13 seats, although 40% was enough in the other four regions.)

Fair voting systems usually boost turnout by an average of about six percent. Funny
thing: if there's no point voting, lots of people don't. Or as Elections
Alberta stated "In an election where there appears to be a clear front
runner, electors may be less motivated to vote since the outcome is perceived
to be predetermined and their vote may not be needed or may not make a
difference." So add a whole lot more votes to the picture, and who knows
what would have happened?

Compared with the province-wide calculation, the PCs get a one-seat bonus from the Liberals in Northern Alberta, and get a one-seat bonus from the NDP by rounding (the NDP was close to a fifth seat in Edmonton.)

About Me

Although I am a member of Fair Vote Canada's Council at the federal level, the views expressed on this blog are my own.
I have been a lawyer since 1971, an elected school trustee from 1982 to 1994, past chair of the Board of the Northumberland Community Legal Centre, and so on.