NewSecurityBeat

Demographic Trends

Worldfocus recently featured two pieces on the Arab world’s burgeoning population. “Demographics of the Arab World,” a radio broadcast, brings together Magda Abu-Fadil of the American University in Beirut and Bernard Haykel of Princeton University for a look at the region’s demographic trends. Despite possessing different political systems and being at different levels of economic development, demographic challenges of youth bulges, emigration, and gender gaps are common to countries across the Arab world. “Arab World Experiences Rapid Population Explosion,” a written interview with demographer Patrick Gerland of the United Nations Population Division, tackles similar issues. Topics of discussion include demographic variations between Middle Eastern nations, fertility rates, the consequences of the region’s youth bulge, and best- and worst-case scenarios for the Arab world’s future.

State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011: Bridging the Urban Divide is the most recent edition of UN-HABITAT’s biennial outlook into global population centers. Analyzing the “the complex social, political, economic, and cultural dynamics of urban environments,” the report explores the “ways in which many urban dwellers are excluded from the advantages of city life.” UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon draws a connection between cities and climate change in the report’s preface, writing, “With over half the world’s population now living in cities, and cities making a disproportionate contribution to climate change, urbanization is one of the ‘crucial agendas’ of our time.”

The World Focus interview of Magda AbuFadil and Bernard Haykel should be a "must listen to" for those in the World Bank, where discussions of the Arab youth bulge are largely "off the table." The interview suggests that this discussion is going on elsewhere among Arab scholars. In fact, UNDP's 2009 Arab Development Report makes an issue of it, but doesn't highlight the rapid declines in fertility that have occurred across the Maghreb (Morocco to Libya). These are discussed by Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the UN Population Division, in the World Focus test interview. A couple of comments on the AbuFadil & Haykel interview: The interviewer carries with him a few misconceptions commonly held by political scientists and economists. (1) The interviewer believes that countries tend to risk political violence when their percentage of young adults is above 35 percent. Correction: it's the proportion of young adults in the adult population (or perhaps more specifically, the working-age population) that indicates an elevated risk of fractious politics. Children (0-14 years of age) are not counted in this indicator, a mistake that seems to crop up in the literature. And (2) the interviewer believes that large numbers of youth are an economic "good deal." AbuFadil and Haykel set him straight on this one. A bulge among the young-adult population produces an demographic bonus only when fertility has declined significantly, the childhood cohorts are small and are the subject of increased investment, and the youth moving into adulthood are educated. That's not the case for much of the Middle East. It is, however, the case in Iran and Turkey (non-Arab states at the borders of the Arab World) and it will soon be the case in the Maghreb. Big changes could occur along these edges of the Arab world in the coming decade. More recently, fertility decline has made its way to the GCC states. The GCC needs a champion for women's rights — like an Ataturk (for Turkey), a Reza Shah (for Iran), and a Habib Bourghiba (for Tunisia). It's no accident that fertility decline and age structural change occurred first in these MENA countries — their leaders laid the groundwork decades ago. But can someone with that amount of political guts and conviction emerge from the Saudi royal family? I'm doubtful.