8:35 Seth is vaguely funny. He looks so young compared to the amount of stuff he’s done. He looks like he could be 24. Mocks the directorial snub of Argo.

I think it would be really hard trying to be “normal” humor.

8:30 Seriously the coverage is so boring that I’m excited to see the commercials instead. It’s going to start sooon

8:22 Talking to the producers. Still don’t care.

8:06 Adele looks like a giant next to Kristen. Clooney looks old. Gone from salt and pepper to mostly salt. J Garner is wearing a beautiful color with an ass ruffle running down her back. Daniel Radcliffe is wearing a giant bowtie. Sandra Bullock is awkward cute. This is boring. When does the show start? When does my pizza get here?

7:57 DAN RAD DAN RAD DAN RAD <3<3<3

7:55 My Oscars predictions in full, along with Emmett’s, are at this link. He and I didn’t disagree on very many predictions. In fact, in all of the categories, we came up with a different prediction only twice — Best Editing (Argo vs Zero Dark Thirty) and Original Screenplay (Zero Dark Thirty vs Django Unchained).

7:50 Here’s a picture, courtesy Tom and Lorenzo, my favorite people in the universe.

Nicole Kidman Oscars 2013

7:40 OMG Nicole Kidman looks amazing. And I never like Nicole Kidman! Yes, I’ve given in and am watching the pre-show. Charlize Theron is a giant. Kristin Chenoweth is teeny. I almost stepped on her once at a Starbucks and thought she was a little kid and then I was too embarrassed to also say I loved her voice, so I just… got out of her way.

Emmett and I put together a predictions list for the Oscars that I am going to share with you. Tonight, I’ll be live blogging the event. This is not because I think the Oscars are particularly right in their judgments, but more that I just love the Oscars.

Best Picture:

Will win: Argo
Should win: Django Unchained
Should have been nominated: Hunger Games

Best Director:

Will win: Steve Spielberg for Lincoln
Should win: Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild (A); Michael Haneke for Amour (E)
Should have been nominated: Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor:

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Should have been nominated: Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock

Best Actress:

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: JLaw (A); Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild (E)
Should have been nominated: JLaw for Hunger Games

Best Supporting Actor:

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master (A); Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook (E)

So, biggish news, I’m working as a staff writer at social axcess and writing about social media. Which is just about as meta as it gets. I don’t know that there’s much that isn’t post modern about blogging, but there you have it.

My first post went up and there’s even a little picture and bio of me. Ashley F. Miller, professional writer and general knower of things!

Last year I listed who I thought was going to win, but this year I think I’m going to list who I want to win.

Let me start with something that you’ll find running through all this commentary, Lee Smith edited the most technically impressive film of the year, Inception. You’ll find that he did not even get nominated for it. This is a travesty. I will probably use all caps and exclamation points to extremes, my apologies.

Best Picture:
I know a lot of people are feeling Inception, but I didn’t actually like that movie, and I did love The King’s Speech, so I’m choosing that one. I think The Social Network is the other big contender, and I’d be happy for that to win as well. I don’t think that there’s a bad film on the list, which makes it a much more successful one than last year. I also like the 10 noms — I think I’m the only one.

Best Leading Actor:
I was torn on this, but I actually think that Jesse Eisenberg gave the most impressive performance here. I love Colin Firth, but I wasn’t terribly impressed by his acting in the movie, not nearly as much as I was with Guy Pearce and Geoffrey Rush. Again, though, they all gave great performances and there’s not a one that I’d be sad to walk away with the gold.

Supporting Actor:
I am biased, I will always choose Geoffrey Rush if he is named, and so he is. I want him to win. I’ve heard Christian Bale is really amazing, but as I haven’t seen it I can’t say.

Best Leading Actress:
I confess that I am not really drawn to any of these as a pick. I’m going to go with Natalie Portman, but you could sell me on any of them. Maybe Jennifer Lawrence?

Supporting Actress:
I almost want Helena Bonham Carter to win just because it would prove to her that she is allowed to be in movies where she doesn’t play a totally over the top crazy person. I think that Hailee Steinfeld is also quite deserving, although it’s kind of BS that she was nominated as a supporting actress despite being, you know, the main character of the whole damn movie.

Best animated feature:
Um… Where are Tangled and Despicable Me? Toy Story 3 is going to win, but I quite liked How to Train Your Dragon.

Art Direction:
This is really tough, and I know it tends to go to either the most period or most extravagant choice, but I think Inception was really impressive on the art direction side of things. In terms of craft, I’ve never seen a better executed film.

Cinematography:Inception. I can’t even imagine the others would compete.

Costume Design:
I am actually fairly indifferent here. I know Ms. Atwood always wins, but I wasn’t that impressed with the costumes in Alice. They were fine, mind you. Same with The King’s Speech. I cannot pick a favorite.

Directing:The Social Network. I am biased in this case by an article I read about David Fincher written by Aaron Sorkin. I have a writer’s crush on Aaron Sorkin and he loved working with Fincher, so I cannot help but vicariously love as well.

Documentary Feature:
We’re venturing into territory where I’m choosing based as much on hearsay as actual knowledge, but I’m going to choose Exit through the Gift Shop because I like Banksy.

Documentary Short:
No Idea.

Film Editing:
WHAAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!! How is Inception not on this list?!!??!! I didn’t even like the movie and I can say that it is some of the best editing I’ve ever seen. WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT?! They all should lose. *deep breath* I guess The Social Network. Whatever, I don’t care, this is an offense against man and God.

Foreign Language:Biutiful

Makeup:
Rick Baker

Original Score:Inception, though I don’t feel strongly about this. Unlike the EDITING!

Original Song:
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3.

Animated Short:
No Idea, I love them though, so I can’t wait to get to see them.

Live Action Short:
No Idea

Sound Editing:Inception. WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAVE WON EDITING

Sound Mixing:Inception.

Visual Effects:Inception

Adapted Screenplay:The Social Network, no question. It should win twice.

Original Screenplay:
Not Inception. Anything but Inception. Maybe The King’s Speech.

I think that Avatar’s going to win an awful lot. Basically it’s going to win unless there’s a really compelling reason to give it to someone else. That being said, as a technical achievement, the film is a marvel, and I think it winning the technical categories is completely called for. And of course, most of the wins in the technical categories aren’t really for “best” so much as they are for “most”. “Most Cinematography” and “Most Editing”.

The only thing I really want to happen is that I really want Kathryn Bigelow to win best director. She’s only the fourth female nominee in the category. My preference for Up in a lot of places is just that I think that animated films deserve to be more recognized than they are. I don’t think Up is nearly as amazing as Wall-E was, but I’m going to pull for animation. Especially as there isn’t anything here I really care that much about.

Who I want to win in italics, who I think will win in bold. No italics where I have no preference, or not enough knowledge.

Actor in a Leading Role• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Actress in a Leading Role• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Actress in a Supporting Role
• Penélope Cruz in “Nine”• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Music (Original Song)
• “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
• “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston• “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett