Malthus’ nightscape is nigh, yo-
Frugal survivalism as if prepping is time sensitive

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Thursday, December 15, 2016

guest article- article 1 of 2 today

GUEST ARTICLE

Hobson’s Survivalism

The term “Hobson’s Choice” hearkens back to the 17th
century. As the story goes, a fellow named Hobson owned a stable that rented
out horses. He saw that his best horses were being rented more often than the
lesser ones and were thus being worn out more quickly. To even out the wear on
his horses he devised a solution that today carries his name – you could rent
the horse in the stable that was closest to the door that day or not rent one
at all. In other words, “take it or leave it”, also known as “Hobson’s Choice”.

So what does that have to do with survivalism?

It is my belief that a small but growing percentage of the
population has become aware that things cannot go on the way that they have for
much longer and that a hard landing is coming at some point. Of that fraction,
a few have decided to take action and prepare themselves for what’s coming. These
eager, newly-minted preppers then take the next step and gather information and
advice on how to proceed from the blogs, magazines, and books out there. And
what advice do they find? By and large it goes something like this:“The only viable solution is for you to spend
enough money that you can move to a secure location, isolated and safe from the
coming storms, where you can continue the comfortable life you know and deserve.”

Most don’t realize until it’s too late that they have been
presented with what appears to be a Hobson’s Choice. They can either: 1) Try to
spend their way out of the city and into a survivable location even if it means
taking on crushing debt and spending far beyond your means; or 2) Accept that their
lower station in life means that they’ll never reach that goal and give up and
wait in despair until their newfound awareness of the inevitable doom becomes a
reality and they are overrun and die a horrible death at the hands of the unprepared
scum that live all around them.

In other words, the Hobson’s choice is between Yuppie
Survivalism and inevitable, near-certain death.

Faced with those two options, which one does the prepper choose?

Which one would you choose?

Yeah, me too.

And where does that path lead? Unless you’re a
one-in-a-million uber-wealthy dude or dudette, that super-secret bunker in
Idaho is almost certainly not going to happen. If you try, you’re going to
realize too late that you’ve been sold a bill of goods. And even though it was
not entirely your fault – because you got played by the hucksters out there –
the exercise will probably leave you with lasting damage to your pocketbook,
family relations, career, self-esteem, and even your health. Your good
intentions brought the very problems you were trying to avoid down on you and
yours. From that point on you mistakenly equate prepping with Yuppie
Survivalism and vow that you’ll never get involved with prepping ever again.

(Astute readers will point out that the above scenario does
not reflect a true Hobson’s Choice since very few preppers have enough
resources to actually exercise the Yuppie Survivalism (“take it”) option. And
they are right. That’s why I noted earlier that this only appears to be a
Hobson’s choice. For preppers of normal means it’s actually a false dichotomy,
as we’ll see later.)

OK, so what CAN you do? Well, that’s what this article is
all about. I spent years pursuing the Yuppie Survivalism option but – thank
You, Lord! – was able to realize what was happening and change direction before
wife #2 decided to subject me to a repeat of what wife #1 did. It got rather
strained for a while and it’s still a sore spot, but I’ve managed to work
around it. Perhaps you can learn something from my experiences.

But first, a VERY BIG caveat. As Jim and I have discussed in
an email exchange before I wrote this article, I’m in a position that is
probably shared by only a small minority of his readers. I’m still employed in
a good-paying job that I’ve held for quite some time. That, and having my
“wake-up” experience take place many years ago has given me time to pay off
debts, acquire some savings, and put aside prep items back when they were still
relatively inexpensive. I realize that many of Jim’s readers are not currently
in a position to do what I did. All I can say to you is that I can sympathize
with your situation because I’ve been there, too. When my first wife left me and
cleaned me out financially in the early 1980’s I went from a comfortable middle
class lifestyle to living in my car in November in Colorado – all in a matter
of days. I never saw it coming so I never made any preparations for it. I had
just moved here and didn’t know anyone so I was on my own. Collecting aluminum
cans out of trash bins to recycle for gas and food money was an experience that
shaped my thinking about a lot of things in life. Not that I’d want to repeat
the exercise, mind you, but it did open my eyes to the wisdom of Jim’s option
of junk land and wheat and the whole Prepper Emergency Essentials (PEE) option.
Stepping down from something good to something not so good is unpleasant. But
it’s far better than going from something good to something that well and truly
sucks.

And that’s really the crux of this article – the wisdom of
implementing as much of Jim’s plan as possible while you’re still able to
easily afford it. If you wait until you’re homeless (like I was for a time)
then even Jim’s plan involves making additional sacrifices during an already
difficult time. So why not make it easy on yourself and peel off some of that
disposable income while you have it and take some steps towards the Bison
option? Consider it cheap insurance for an unexpected illness, divorce, or
other serious life event that turns your world upside down. It’s not 20 acres
in Idaho with fallow fields, a year-round spring, and five years of quality
storage food, but it’s not being hungry and cold and living in your car during
the winter, either.

If you’re not at the place in life where this applies to
your situation, but would still like to continue reading, thank you! As you’ll
see, I haven’t gotten it all figured out and your comments and suggestions
would be welcome. If you do want to skip this one, no worries – you can always re-read
some of Jim’s past articles in the Bison Newsletter compilation that you
purchased. [You did purchase one to support Jim, right? ;-) ]

Step 1 – Getting the Proper Mindset

One of the first things you need to do is disabuse yourself
of the whole Hobson’s choice view of prepping. Accept the fact that for all but
a few the Idaho retreat is not attainable. But take comfort in knowing that if
Jim is correct and the Post Oil Dark Ages (PODA) truly are coming, then it
probably wasn’t the best solution anyway.

Instead, consider the simplified view of
survivalism/prepping as a continuum of options that trade off costs and
benefits. Let’s arbitrarily assign it a scale of 0 to 100.At the “0” end is the “do nothing and hope
for the best” option. The cost is zero, but the benefits are also zero if
anything bad happens to you (like my experience of being suddenly homeless in
winter). At the other end of the spectrum at 100 is the fully-stocked Prepper’s
Dream Fortress in Idaho – incredible benefits (under certain assumed
conditions) that unfortunately come at an incredible cost.

As you go down the scale the cost goes down but so does the
comfort level. If your retreat is up in the 90-100 range, please invite me to
your hideout for a nice warm meal and a safe place to sleep when TSHTF. If
you’re down in the single digits your primary concern is survival, comfort is a
distant second, and I’m not on your Christmas card list anyway so I won’t
bother dropping by.

(Experienced preppers will immediately realize that this
scale is not linear. That is, going from 90 to 80 is far less painful than
going from 20 to 10. But we’re talking simplified concepts for now.)

The conclusion that you need to reach on your own (so you
truly believe it, not just read about it) is that there is no perfect option
out there. I repeat – There Is No Perfect Option Out There. Everything is a
tradeoff, and you are the one who is best qualified to assess what constitutes
the best tradeoff for your particular circumstances and personal makeup.

Once this concept is grasped it becomes easier to see why having
a backup Bison PEE option that will keep you at the 20-30 level is far wiser
than constantly working towards getting something in the 90’s that you’ll never
actually own and ending up at 5 when a big setback hits you from left field. If
you wait until you need the Bison option you’ll likely be in difficult straits
and the effort involved will considerably greater than if you had done it
during good times.

And if you don’t believe that a setback from the 90%+ option
can happen, then let me tell you what happened some time back to two families I
know. They were convinced by what they read on some survival sites that the
bottom was going to fall out any day. So they quit their jobs and moved to
Idaho to live on mortgaged properties while competing with the locals for
income. Within two years they were back. During a downturn in the economy the
banks foreclosed on their properties and small businesses and they lost
everything and had to start all over again. One fellow was so soured by the
experience that he never went back to prepping. The other still tries to prep
but they live paycheck-to-paycheck with him as the sole wage earner at age 66,
in an industry with constant outsourcing overseas. They have little equity in
the home, no savings, and a still-broken family situation. Very sad.

Step 2 – Taking Action

With all due respect to Jim, I don’t believe that many preppers
are going to make the jump from middle class comfort straight into a BPOD. I’m
sure there are many reasons for this but let’s just assume that it’s accurate.
So what should they do?

I would argue that the most probable course of action for
most people would be to use your spare income to implement as much of the Bison
plan as possible as cheap insurance against societal disruptions.

Does that make this just another bugout plan? Yes and No.
Yes, in that you’re still living where you are and not taking the big first
step of moving out of the city and onto junk land. No, in that you’re not
working toward a fantasy retreat in Idaho but rather taking actual steps to
acquire a real place to move to with real supplies for when circumstances force
you out of your current lifestyle. And I do believe that’s coming to many in
America over the next few years.

Is this enough to see you through the PODA? Absolutely not.
Is it a reasonable, actionable first step in that direction? Absolutely! I
believe it’s far better than having only a few pieces of Yuppie Survivalism in
place. And better to be 80% prepared in two months instead of trying to be 100%
prepared in twenty years.

Jim has noted that the Bison Plan can be implemented for
only a few thousand dollars and explains in his book how a person earning
minimum wage can make that happen. If they can do it, how much easier will it
be for someone who spends that much for their daily Starbucks fixes over the
course of a year? Suppose one has managed to put away enough cash in savings to
purchase a replacement car when the one you’re now driving to work dies. (This
is not unrealistic - I do, as do many of the people I work with.)If you used the bulk of that money (and your
spouse was in agreement with this course of action) you could have the most or
all of the PEE items in place in short order. Junk land could be purchased
outright rather than with monthly payments. Wheat could be purchased in bulk
from Wal-Mart. Many of the other PEE items (Corona grain mill, Katadyn water
filter, etc.) would require nothing more than an Amazon order through the links
on Jim’s blog (shameless plug).

Step 3 – Mitigating Risk

OK, I freely admit that this is one area where I don’t have
good solutions for some of the shortcomings you’ll face if you go this route.
The biggest problem that I can’t figure out a solution to is vandalism and
theft of your large prep items like wheat and solar panels if you’re not already
living on the junk land with them. (Smaller items can be brought with you when
you finally move there.) Jim’s point about moving onto the junk land not only
solves the bugout drawbacks (timing, travel, fuel, crime, etc.) it also helps
ensure that your preps are being watched over. But that also has the downside
of your needing to quit your job and move to that junk land, with all the
complications that entails. No easy solution, but here are some of the
suggestions I’ve seen:

-Direct, hidden burial of your items on site or
nearby

-Buying a cheap, run-down house in the small town
that you plan to escape to. Build a hidden high security room of your own
construction in the basement. Leave the doors unlocked and let the vandals
trash up the already poor quality place, hoping they don’t discover the room
and break into it at their leisure.

-Place the items in a storage space near your junk
land and move them onto your property when you finally relocate there.

-Store it with friends / acquaintances in the
area you’re moving to

-Store it at your present location and take it
with you when you finally go

-Have sufficient money/PMs to take with you so
that you can buy them once you arrive

The flip side of this is that I believe that some risks, if
handled wisely, can be mitigated more easily while you are still at your
present location with your present income. For example, if you give up watching
TV and use that time to learn survival-related skills, you can more easily
recover from the inevitable mistakes you’ll make as you learn. Also, your
higher income stream would allow you to upgrade some of the PEE purchases - for
example, multiple Corona Mills, extra water filters, additional ammo, etc. Just
don’t overdo it and end up with more stuff than you can take with you J

Another problem that most preppers have to address (myself
included) is how to prep when the spouse is not on board. Everyone who is in
that situation will have to decide for themselves how to handle this without
violating their own conscience. But here’s how I handled it:

After the dust-up over my earlier prepping mistakes, I
backed away for a few years to let things settle. When I wanted to get back
into more “normal” prepping our finances were in better shape due to our
increased income and lower expenses. So I proposed that every payday we would
both continue to deposit our paychecks into the household account but each
would hold back an identical small amount to spend on whatever we wanted. She
readily agreed. That was the money I used to start purchasing prep items.

As time went on I formed a small side business under an LLC.
She was OK with any income from that business being my own since by that time
our expenses were even lower as debt was paid off and more money was available
for other things. The additional income is used to buy preps.

Over that time period I was able to put in place most of the
Bison option. While I don’t have a dedicated piece of junk land but I do have
three close, trusted friends who have offered to let me set up a travel trailer
on their land if needed. The other PEE preps are loaded into a small trailer
parked at a friend’s place. If things go sideways here I can put my dog and
some critical items (already listed on a pull sheet so I don’t have to think
about it during the stress of the moment) into my minivan, drive over to my
friend’s, hook up the trailer, and be on my way to a new life.And I have enough money set aside for the purchase
of a used travel trailer or fifth wheel, more wheat, and a piece of junk land if
and when that time comes.

Is this as good a solution as an already-established Bison
homestead? No, not really. But for now, with the constraints of my current
situation, it’s the best I can do and I’m OK with that. Knowing that I have a
soft place to fall if the rug gets pulled out again reduces my stress level and
lets me get on with life.

Implementing as much of the Bison plan as is feasible for your
situation is very cheap insurance. The benefits far outweigh the relatively
small cost that many middle-class preppers would need to make it happen. If a
prepper can afford a high-end AR and all the things necessary to feed and
maintain it, why not spend that money instead on the PEE option that will get them
through a life-altering event in relative comfort and safety? Why would anyone pass
up a deal like that?

While a very good plan over all I would have to have the junk land to. Junk land is Not a financial burden by its nature, it is peace of mind. A couple of weekends camping on junk land you could perma plant fruit trees, fruit vines berry's, rhubarb bury a Kearny's plywood fallout shelter /cache .Plus it would give you time to see the surrounding area in good times to evaluate its pluses and minuses. Taxes on my BOL/junkland is 66$ a year for 2 acres

Thank you for that observation and recommendation, Gary. I'm in an "interesting" situation that I did not describe in further detail in the article that makes it possible for me to lose any land I purchase if things go badly. But your comment made me realize that the possible loss is worth the relatively low cost (for me) of the purchase. I'll do it!! (P.S. - I always look forward to your comments to Jim's articles. They are always well-reasoned and practical. Thank you again!)

Anon as a former small business owner we both suffer similar "interesting situation" :( . Junk land is safe just register it as LLC or jointly owned with 3 parties. Forced sale becomes impossible. Mine is listed with my kids then me. With being in a similar situation I can tell you the junk land allows me to sleep better. I have it as a fall back a place to regroup.

Look into setting up a non-revokable trust or LLC if you are worried about loosing your assets, land especially. I too am under a looming cloud of possible lawsuit that could cost me any number of things, but by putting my most important assets into other legal entities names I may be able to avoid the worst aspects. I am still waiting to talk to the lawyer about that.

Thank you for the advice, guys! Sounds like my situation is far from unique ;-)My current consulting business is already set up as a pass-through LLC that I set up myself. It would be simple enough to set up another with a few others listed as partners. Thanks again for the idea!

Excellent article. Thank you for taking the time to write this up and share it.

Many moons ago I bought all of Lord Bison's work. But the Computer Gods were angry at my hubris and allowed their Goblins to spirit my data away (including cherished photos of times gone by).

Fortunately I'm blessed with 15% disposable income after expenses (but before saving for a rainy day or buying food) Hurray for declining living standards. At least the bastards are giving us time to get used to them :-)

I must moderate-trust me. You don't want to see what happens otherwise. Sometimes it takes awhile to respond as I only check two or three times a day. No N-Bombs, nothing to get me libeled. Otherwise, have at it. If you criticize me, make sure to praise my hair first.