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Ars at Macworld: last call for rumors

From the reasonable to the irrational, what would Macworld be without rumors?

While Apple Computer had another great year in 2006, the market for rumors has been somewhat less exciting, even on the weekend before Macworld. Nonetheless, from anonymous nerds on the Internet to six-figure analysts in corner offices, everybody has their predictions. Taking an overview, those rumors might be put into four categories: sure thing, likely, unlikely, and masturbation fantasy.

Sure Thing

Previewed in September, the iTV will have a new name and some detailed specifications, though recent rumors indicate a release later this year. However, no matter how capable the iTV might be, there must be more movies. Currently, Fox is the only new movie studio rumored to have worked out a deal with Apple.

It's time for the yearly priming of the iPump, with new versions of iLife and iWork increasing Apple's revenue stream. Last year the new title was iWeb, and this year rumor has it there is a spreadsheet. Beside "Numbers," expect incremental improvements to the other iApps, with iWeb probably getting the most love. New features are rumored to focus on Web 2.0 nonsense, such as real-time pictures from built-in iSight cameras in applicable Macs—watch the one-handed surfing.

As for Leopard, the only sure thing is another demo, possibly including "secret" features not mentioned by Steve Jobs at WWDC 2006, like resolution independence and ZFS. It's likely a release date will be announced, probably in the spring.

Likely

It's hard to imagine Macworld without new Macs, so expect upgrades on at least a few machines, the favorite being a quad-core Mac Pro. It might even have a Blu-ray drive, though few rumors have suggested this. Beyond that, there hasn't been much gossip about Mac upgrades, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. There have been meaningless rumors from less reputable rumor sites—oxymoron aside—about new, thinner, lighter Cinema Displays. The displays would feature greater pixel density and HDMI hooks, and have built-in iSight cameras, and possible a 17" model. It's been a long time since the last display upgrade, and that's the real force behind this rumor.

Unlikely

Since iPods were just updated in September, the big news would be the "True" Video iPod. Rumors of the TViPod are many and varied, but seem to focus on a three-inch, wide-screen display, which may or may not be touch sensitive. If so, let's hope the screen is manufactured with alien technology and is frictionless, thus avoiding fingerprints and scratches. More likely, there will be a bezel with "virtual" buttons indicating functionality, though it's hard to imagine an iPod without the signature wheel. However, introduction of the TViPod would seem better suited for a special event.

Masturbation Fantasy

The iTablet is the current perpetual rumor among Apple watchers, whether a resurrected Newton on steroids or a convertible laptop, but the chances of seeing such a device were recently put in perspective by a former Apple executive. Those odds would be infinity to one. The cost of development, the price of manufacture, and the size of market are all against the Apple iTablet, now and for the perpetual future.

This brings us to the MacBook Pro Thin, which is the new iTablet, at least as far as rumors go. The professional subnotebook, three pounds or less, is not going to happen. Setting aside rumor sites of ill repute, the MacBook Pro Thin is out for the same reasons as the iTablet. For further proof, look farther back to the 12" PowerBook and to the future with the black MacBook. That's your MacBook Pro Thin.

Finally, there is the xMac, the upgradeable mini-tower that everyone too cheap to buy a Mac Pro dreams of. Keep dreaming. The only way this will ever happen is if Mac Pro sales get so bad Apple has nothing to lose—oh, wait.

One More Thing. . .

It's got to be the iPod Phone, if for no other reason than everyone, especially those buying up AAPL, demand it. Kevin Rose recently rumormongered alleged specs, but no one at Apple Legal apparently dugg his story. Insanely great or ROKR lame, there must be an iPod Phone. If not, it better be because a couple of US Marshals have interrupted the Keynote to perp walk Steve Jobs off the stage over the options scandal. Even then expect him to call Phil Schiller from the back seat of the Feds car.