Emmys 2014: Will ‘Orange is the New Black,’ ‘Game of Thrones’ win TV’s top prize?

This image released by Netflix shows Taylor Schilling, left, and Uzo Aduba in a scene from “Orange Is the New Black.”
Paul SchiraldiFile photo

This image released by HBO shows Kit Harington in a scene from “Game of Thrones.” The series garnered 19 Emmy Award nominations on Thursday, July 10, 2014, including one for best drama series.
HELEN SLOANFile photo

No one ever really knows what will go down on Emmy Awards night. Just when you think the voters are stuck in a rubber-stamp rut, they pull a big surprise and bestow their love on a shiny TV newbie.

That’s what makes predicting the winners such an iffy proposition. Still, someone has to do it, so we’ve cautiously tiptoed through the Emmy minefield to pinpoint exactly who we think should, and will, prevail.

If we blow it big time, please instantly forget that you ever read it here.

Outstanding Drama Series

Should win: “Game of Thrones” delivered its biggest season yet, and no series is as ambitious, fresh, provocative and emotionally charged. Then again, Emmy voters rarely reward fantasy shows with the major prizes.

Will win: This is the most intriguing race, with at least three very worthy contenders. The guess here is that defending champ “Breaking Bad” will edge out “True Detective” for the title, thanks to its triumphant – and much buzzed-about – final set of episodes.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Should win: “Orange Is the New Black” rides into its first Emmy party atop a gigantic wave of positive buzz. Even if you don’t believe the women’s prison saga belongs in this category, there’s no denying its greatness. The “Modern Family” winning streak could be in serious jeopardy.

Will win: Look for “Orange” to give Netflix something to really celebrate.

Lead Actor, Drama

Should win: Wow. So many great leading men. Should we just have McConaughey and Harrelson reprise their “True Detective” brawl onstage with the winner taking all? Seriously, both guys delivered intense, impeccable performances, but give the edge to McConaughey, who had those unforgettable soliloquies.

Will win: McConaughey, because Emmy loves movie stars and because Cranston already has won three times.

Should win: We’re still grousing over the shameful snub of Tatiana Maslany of “Orphan Black.” But that doesn’t diminish our admiration for Caplan, who has us swooning over her exquisite portrayal of pioneering sex researcher Virginia Johnson.

Will win: Wright. She nabbed the Golden Globe earlier this year, and her performance as a scheming, Lady Macbeth-like political power broker is just too delicious to resist. Meanwhile, two-time winner Danes was marvelous again, but her show has lost much of its cachet.