Is this exactly the same finish as last year? If so there's not a great chance for a regrouping, partly because those who are likely to get a gap on the Poggio (like last year, Sagan, Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe) are such elite descenders.

The Barb wrote:Is this exactly the same finish as last year? If so there's not a great chance for a regrouping, partly because those who are likely to get a gap on the Poggio (like last year, Sagan, Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe) are such elite descenders.

See how far Kwiatkowski got in '16. He needs someone stronger than himself there (like Sagan or Cancellara back in the days). Greg is a mediocre descender and probably won't do anything anyway. Sky will want to avoid a bunch sprint. Who else? QS will play their cards. Ag2r and BMC are allies with Sky, but I doubt how much they will muster.

I think it will be a bit of an outsider again. That has been the case quite often in the past years with Goss, Ciolek, Kristoff, Démare and others... I would really like to see Trentin win. And look out for Greipel, he is more and more becoming a classics rider.

hazaran wrote:Because he was beaten by the two guys that will forever be closer than Alaphilippe. Kwiatkowskis skill set is a true superset of the french pretender.

Alaphilippe is a true and considerable talent whom it is wrong to label a "pretender" but I also agree that, at this stage of his career anyway, both Kwiatkowski and Sagan have similar skills sets but are slightly better at just about everything. A little bit better at shortish climbs (a bit debatable) a little bit better at descending (not debatable) a little bit faster in a sprint (not really debatable).

This does make it hard for Alaphilippe to win Milan San Remo. The only way I really see it happening is if he, Sagan and Kwiatkowski get away as they did last year, he attacks and the other two each look to the other to chase him down. In that scenario though I would imagine Sagan wouldn't wait for long before chasing and taking his chances on beating Kwiatkowski in a sprint.

Sestriere wrote:I think it will be a bit of an outsider again. That has been the case quite often in the past years with Goss, Ciolek, Kristoff, Démare and others... I would really like to see Trentin win. And look out for Greipel, he is more and more becoming a classics rider.

My outside tip is Swift. Hasn't really done much since joining UAE - but has two recent podiums in MSR; seems to be one of those who sprints well after long hard races.

I'd like to see Matthews win. Not sure why - possibly because he has a touch of the GVA's pre 2016....a bit of a nearly man in big one day races. And for that matter, Alaphilippe would be cool as well. If it must be a favorite: Sagan. The race needs him on its palmares!