Friday, October 16, 2015

2017 Cutoff Analysis as of Portland Marathon

With the inclusion of the Portland Marathon results we have a new cutoff calculation that, as expected, is downward.

Age group totals:

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

416

4402

9.45%

375

4032

9.30%

F35-39

232

1831

12.67%

213

1662

12.82%

F40-44

192

1474

13.03%

171

1330

12.86%

F45-49

167

956

17.47%

168

932

18.03%

F50-54

97

671

14.46%

118

642

18.38%

F55-59

63

410

15.37%

58

357

16.25%

F60-64

33

175

18.86%

22

176

12.50%

F65-69

13

56

23.21%

12

71

16.90%

F70-74

2

19

10.53%

2

21

9.52%

F75-79

0

7

0.00%

0

5

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M18-34

302

3639

8.30%

257

3381

7.60%

M35-39

156

1693

9.21%

154

1709

9.01%

M40-44

147

1625

9.05%

150

1557

9.63%

M45-49

207

1367

15.14%

160

1219

13.13%

M50-54

170

1098

15.48%

157

1035

15.17%

M55-59

120

786

15.27%

98

739

13.26%

M60-64

76

428

17.76%

65

424

15.33%

M65-59

8

57

14.04%

4

63

6.35%

M65-69

32

143

22.38%

28

129

21.71%

M70-74

20

92

21.74%

9

77

11.69%

M75-79

2

21

9.52%

6

26

23.08%

M80+

0

4

0.00%

1

9

11.11%

Total

2455

20954

11.72%

2228

19597

11.37%

Qualification rate is down - I realized that I was calculating the overall percentage incorrectly before by taking the average of all the age group percentages. But that will cause the small age groups to skew the averages. Duh. Not sure what took me so long to realize that. So instead just total qualifiers/total finishers. Still, qualifier rate is down, overall, as it number of qualifiers.

Here is the margin breakdown, overall:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

158

6.44%

115

5.16%

1-2 minutes

136

5.54%

111

4.98%

2-3 minutes

145

5.91%

106

4.76%

3-4 minutes

116

4.73%

129

5.79%

4-5 minutes

127

5.17%

93

4.17%

5-10 minutes

529

21.55%

457

20.51%

10-20 minutes

629

25.62%

610

27.38%

20> minutes

615

25.05%

607

27.24%

Totals

2455

2228

We're still seeing the margin has shifted a bit from under 5 minutes to over 5 minutes (with the bulk in the 10-20+ range). 2014 total under 5 minutes is 27.78%. 2015 total under 5 minutes is 24.87%.

Onto the cutoff calcuation. The number of runners at 2:28 and under in 2014 is 2091 runners.

Sorting qualifiers by margin descending, the 2091th runner has a margin of...

70 seconds, or 1:10 seconds

Next up is Steamtown and Chicago. Still need to check if Berlin has archived the results properly where I can get the age group - however as we've seen, Berlin seems to skew the results a bit given its location so it may even be the right choice to exclude it from the overall prediction (and perhaps sub in whatever the 26th top feeder is? Is this information even known, i.e. what is the 26th top feeder race?)