tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3275281934207733354..comments2016-12-09T07:24:41.178-08:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Rebuilding the National Weather ServiceCliff Massnoreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16716592205841345182013-10-23T20:01:59.967-07:002013-10-23T20:01:59.967-07:00very nice post
two thumb up for you ^___^very nice post<br />two thumb up for you ^___^obatalamipenyakitsinusitishttp://obatalamipenyakitsinusitis.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52754018826037385992013-07-26T15:50:17.361-07:002013-07-26T15:50:17.361-07:00Just completed 42 years of government service in M...Just completed 42 years of government service in Meteorology, and nearly 20 years in Hydrology and recently retired from NOAA/NWS.<br /><br />Have seen it all and done most of it including IT and software maintenance (Navy Centers, RFC, and local WFO office).<br /><br />Many very smart people (highly regarded) continue to feel the problem can be solved by automation. I only wish that were so. It simply does not scale to staffing requirements at 122 WFOs.<br /><br />My Experience: More computers -&gt; More software Maintenance -&gt; More Localization -&gt; Need for more People to Service, Run and QC more Products -&gt; More Training -&gt; Larger Budget Needs.<br />i.e. More begets much more. <br /><br />Computers enable the production of a greater number of products, supported by more operational and maintenance staff working under a much greater workload.<br /><br />For example:<br />At the WFO, a conflagration of software from a variety of different agencies must be cobbled to work in an unorchestrated systems environment. (I know. I had to deal with it all the time.) <br /><br />One size fits all, yearly major software upgrades and changes upend local development work and require extensive retraining by staff and local modifications.<br />Exponentially increasing number of products (created at the National level), requires human attention and interface at the local WFO level and more training.<br /><br />The drive to fine scale local detailed forecasting is exponentially increasing mapping/GIS requirements in both Meteorology and Hydrology without dedicated GIS support at the WFO level. Work that is done, is out of hide by multi-tasked forecasters, who have done admirable if not heroic work.<br /><br />The absolute dedication of our younger folks, who continue to expend themselves making this Rube Goldberg system work is amazing. But with staff cut backs, it is just a matter of time before the whole thing implodes and people bail.<br /><br />In a nutshell: The NWS is trying to do too much. Much like an over-expanded business. The extra support products have been done as a means to impress Congress, justify funding requests and keep jobs. <br /><br />The last thing anyone wants, is for dedicated NWS employees to lose their job. However, the NWS needs to reevaluate what it is attempting to do, and refocus on what it can do well under the new budget constraints.<br /><br />This may mean a refocus towards impactful weather warnings on very short time scales with a better staffing plan at a smaller number of WFOs using the reduced staffing level that currently exists. The rest should be left to private industry and/or National/Regional centers.Joel Lanierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08419538272711771095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8425267444817456612012-12-30T20:27:18.607-08:002012-12-30T20:27:18.607-08:001 option I see from this and your previous posts i...1 option I see from this and your previous posts is the opportunity to leapfrog our &quot;competitors&quot; with a major re-write of the WRF (or NIM) models with massively parallel GPU architecture in mind. <br /><br />Relatively low cost GPU type processors can better handle the 4dvar assimulation tasks. <br /><br />With massive parallel hardware running a global model feeding relatively low cost GPU computers running downscaled versions for regional, ensamble and specialty purposes, nearly desktop level GPU processors can provide a lot of specialized modeling services.<br /><br />In this case, the National Govt. role is to provide the infrastructure (satelites, radar data assimulation, global models, etc) as well as the data sharing and common software and then providing those services to a wide range of subsequent providers.<br /><br />Downscaling, localization of model parameters and increasing the frequency and timesteps can be based on local weather/safety/commerce needs.alocalsewerhistorianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10571222040286889985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70402889398329993742012-12-30T00:14:10.244-08:002012-12-30T00:14:10.244-08:00link to original report is broken. this one works ...link to original report is broken. this one works for me:<br /><br />http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13429&amp;page=1Nemohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02044762625184322079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71144168903016726342012-12-18T11:37:52.891-08:002012-12-18T11:37:52.891-08:00A well-stated and though-provoking piece. There i...A well-stated and though-provoking piece. There is one issue, however, where I disagree: the idea of dismantling the HPC due to redundancy. I use HPC products not only as a meteorologist in the federal government but also as a weather-hobbyist, and I think they provide a much-needed, national-level assessment of current and forecasted weather. I can recall numerous times when the gridded concatenated products from the various WFOs were marred by greatly differing opinions from field office to field office. The HPC provides a single-source assessment and forecast for those of us who need such a product. As one of the authors of the US Drought Monitor, I rely on the regionally consistent HPC products for the &quot;Outlooks&quot; section; we do not have time to go to different WFOs to cobble together an outlook ourselves for the contiguous U.S. Their QPF products are used in weekly briefings to senior-level staff here at USDA. The HPC (having worked next to them during my time at NESDIS) also offers some of the most knowledgeable forecasters in the business. In additioin, they are a much-needed source of logistical information, such as model initialization biases and data ingest problems. I&#39;ll add that many of my co-workers and weather-hobbyist friends find the HPC short- and medium-range discussions quite useful. Anyhow, I know this was not a key piece to your article, but I do feel the HPC serves a need for meteorologists in both government and the private sector, and I also know of many weather-hobbyist friends who use HPC products as well.Erichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01112964023378796623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40156370472142969542012-12-15T12:04:52.017-08:002012-12-15T12:04:52.017-08:00I applaud the recommendations for rebuilding the N...I applaud the recommendations for rebuilding the NWS – e.g., the provision of needed computing resources, co-location of organizational components like the EMC with ESRL in Boulder, hiring as new head of NWS an individual with strong scientific credentials and a credible vision of the future, and elimination of the regional structure. They can help rebuild the NWS.<br /><br />But if we are concerned about why ECMWF forecasts so much better than the NWS, it is instructive to look at the nature of the ECMWF organization. <br /><br />• Accountability – The Director of ECMWF reports directly to the heads of member Met Services in Europe; they have a vested interest in his performance, and he is accountable to them and serves at their pleasure.<br />• Mission – ECMWF is able to focus on making and improving medium-range global forecasts, leaving short-term, regional/local forecasting and in-situ/satellite observing systems to others. <br />• Pay Differential – The pay for ECMWF professional staff is significantly greater than their peers elsewhere, thus helping attract the best and brightest.<br />• Personnel – The Director of ECMWF has significant flexibility in hiring new and firing non-performing professional staff.<br />• Transition from Research to Operations – The professional staff throughout ECMWF ranges from basic researchers to operational forecasters, thus enabling the transition from research to operations to take place at the most basic level within and across the organization. <br /><br />While the recommendations such as noted above will be necessary to rebuild the NWS, I submit that they will not be sufficient for the NWS to ever become the dominant weather prediction entity of the planet, at least in medium-range forecasting. Additional organizational factors – such as are in play at the ECMWF – must be addressed.Stan Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17432834379228197560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89487328425088967812012-12-12T10:02:20.806-08:002012-12-12T10:02:20.806-08:00John,
The reason the U.S. needs to be first ra...John,<br /> The reason the U.S. needs to be first rank for a number of reasons. First, the ECMWF model is a global one, and we need high resolution forecasts over the U.S. that they will not be doing. Secondly, the global model drives the regional and local models, and we need to get that output at full temporal and spatial resolution...much easier to do if you have it in house.<br /> Keep in mind that the NWS forecasts for Sandy...the ones made by local offices and the National Hurricane Center, DID take advantage of the European Model. In fact, U.S. forecasters view the output of many global models (e.g., the Canadian, UKMET Office, etc).<br />Finally, the U.S. model could be the best in the world...why settle for the ECMWF model when we could be far better?...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35894058008031489392012-12-12T08:06:32.314-08:002012-12-12T08:06:32.314-08:00Something I didn&#39;t see expressed... why not jo...Something I didn&#39;t see expressed... why not join forces with the Europeans (and others) and work together to build the best model and share resources? Why does forecasting have to be a national resource?<br /><br />I know the military types will say its for national defense, but in today&#39;s world, that&#39;s lame. We are all interconnected to a far greater degree than nationalists like to consider. <br /><br />One world, one weather forecasting system. EarthWeather.<br /><br />John Marshall John Marshallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08271037292493818827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65469999901781916442012-12-12T00:33:40.403-08:002012-12-12T00:33:40.403-08:00@Dan sounds like under your leadership NWSEO likes...@Dan sounds like under your leadership NWSEO likes to take a scattershot approach to problem solving, hope something sticks, claim a win when it does and blame the other guy when it doesn&#39;t. The fact is NWS has stagnated while you have been actively involved in the upper levels of NWSEO. You continue to support a WFO structure that does not leverage technical advances of the past 20 years. NWSEO regularly fights for the local forecaster improving the forecast (see your rant about mesoscale meteorology before) when objective data clearly show forecast models routinely beating NWS forecasts. Why not support moving regular forecasting to regional or even national centers? WFO collaboration remains a significant issue and hindrance to any customers using NWS forecasts at a national scale (see NY Time graphic depicting NDFD winds with Sandy). The grievance process makes it very difficult if not impossible for NWS to get the very best meteorologists, rather once someone is in they are set forever which leads to complacency and a dulling of skills over time. I agree job safety is important, I disagree that people should be so comfortable that they feel they don&#39;t need to learn new skills. Just look at the adoption of social media, which you tout as a success.<br /><br />NWSEO needs new leadership, committed to providing Americans with the best scientists with the best skills to safeguard them from the harsh realities of Mother Nature instead of fighting to keep jobs for the sake of keeping jobs.2456af7c-4373-11e2-95c9-000bcdcb8a73https://openid.aol.com/opaque/2456af7c-4373-11e2-95c9-000bcdcb8a73noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7262419343927270672012-12-11T11:22:33.789-08:002012-12-11T11:22:33.789-08:00Also, since weather forecasting is time critical, ...Also, since weather forecasting is time critical, I presume you wouldn&#39;t want to do it with systems that aren&#39;t 24x7 (not just SETI style or even cloud based systems with redundancy). I exclude non critical jobs (presumably there are research models or past analysis jobs and the like) that could be run on other systems. <br /><br />I am not a meteorologist, but I am a computer person, and I don&#39;t see anything wrong at all with the use of an IBM supercomputer (I don&#39;t work for IBM or the NWS). IBM is probably the world&#39;s leading manufacturer of supercomputers and has a great deal of expertise in this very complex technology. Plus, its not just raw power, but also 24x7 support, software upgrades etc. <br /><br />resnickjhttp://resnickj.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-76318334717644332112012-12-11T10:40:04.606-08:002012-12-11T10:40:04.606-08:00As far as 122 being the optimal number of WFOs, it...<br /><br />As far as 122 being the optimal number of WFOs, it absolutely is not. I think we need WFOs in Charlotte, Baltimore and Ft Myers/Naples. As far as what is the optimal staffing we are open to ideas. The NWSEO proposed and fought hard to get pilot offices in six offices (these pilots were 100 percent a NWSEO idea), the whole idea behind these offices is to innovate for the future. It was a very hard fight, management was very resistant to the idea, but the foresight of folks like Jack Hayes and Bob Byrd finally helped and they agreed to fund these most of the pilots. It is almost the one year anniversary of the NWSEO proposing to the NWS to move some intern positions out of offices that do not have upper air and have a small population base to locations in the Midwest to create mesoscale/tornado pilots. The idea was for the NWS to announce the new pilots on the anniversary of the Joplin Tornado. The NWSEO thought that would be a very powerful media message and the NWS would show they could respond rapidly to a need. The NWS management would not agree to do this even after complaining that the NWSEO would not agree to anything but cookie cutter staffing. It has been the position of the NWSEO for as long as I have been involved that we probably do not need a WCM in every office in say the desert southwest or in sparsely populated states. As for the SOOs, while it is a very important position, the current management of the position has led to much of the dysfunction the Cliff speaks of in his post. NWS OST needs to be changed to more of a direct R&amp;D program for operations, Dry side NOAA labs (or at least portions of them) should be brought under this new OST management; SOOs should then be matrix managed between this new OST and the local/regional office. This would create a direct connection between research and operations and well as cultivate the tremendous talent in local offices. I personally have been proposing this idea for four years, the NWS management hates it. <br /><br />As the President of a labor union my number one job is to save other peoples jobs, why on earth would I or the organization I represent not encourage innovation that would open new markets for the information the NWS produces. It just makes no sense. However don’t come to us with some plan to cut hundreds of meteorologist’s positions, because NOAA will just take those positions and transfer them to the wet side or to NOAA administration and we will never get them back. <br />Dan Sobienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16459370927655369576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22364639260969550152012-12-11T10:39:15.614-08:002012-12-11T10:39:15.614-08:00I did not address the thought that the NWSEO is sl...I did not address the thought that the NWSEO is slowing down innovation because there is no truth to it. In fact quite the opposite is true. Sure there have been times when the negotiation process slows down the pace that ideas move forward but most of the time the reason for this is that management holds onto a proposal until the last minute or we provide counter proposals and management never respond. It is true that sometimes negotiations slow the pace of change because the union does not like the change but the reality is that happens rarely. The fact of the matter is the concept of weather ready nation, not the name, the concept started as an NWSEO idea. The NWS strategic plan was built from the ground up through the NWSEO/NWS LOT process. The NWSEO was instrumental in the rapid spread and acceptance of NWSChat. We have worked with the NWS to develop a whole new way of doing business with our hydrology program; we now wait for the bureaucracy to implement it. The NWSEO has pushed the NWS for years to be more involved in social media and to develop weather apps for phones and tablets. We run into resistance from management who argue that they must “control innovation in the field”. At one Corporate Board meeting about two years ago one regional director complained at length that one of their employees was on the phone to Google for three hours trying to learn about innovations in communications. I finally could not take it anymore, interrupted and asked if they thought managers at Google were complaining about one of their employees talking to someone in the NWS for three hours.<br /><br />cont.Dan Sobienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16459370927655369576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90700760524905976942012-12-11T10:18:36.877-08:002012-12-11T10:18:36.877-08:00&quot;How about taking a page from the SETI@home p...&quot;How about taking a page from the SETI@home people, in which spare CPU cycles on home computers are used to analyze radio-telescope data for potential extraterrestrial intelligence?&quot;<br /><br />Brian, Not possible as Numerical Weather Prediction requires very high speed/ low latency communications between cores/computers as the atmosphere is broken up into pieces and run on different cores and nodes. The pieces than need to talk to each other to exchange information and have to wait until that exchange takes place before the model can go on, which occurs many times a second. Even Gigabit Ethernet isn&#39;t fast enough. Most large machines used for NWP use Infiniband which is super low latency (1 to 2 microseconds) and 32 Gbit/s or higher.Mikehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16474348306050965859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53107541856763334982012-12-11T09:55:29.249-08:002012-12-11T09:55:29.249-08:00Paddy L,
Where would a privatized weather service...Paddy L,<br /><br />Where would a privatized weather service get its raw data? *crickets*<br /><br />I don&#39;t think that money WISELY spent on services that benefit us all, like the Postal Service, AMTRAK, and the NWS, is &quot;squandered&quot;... tell me, do you maintain the road in front of your house yourself? Me either.<br /><br />There are many changes that CAN and SHOULD happen in the weather service, and I&#39;m glad, as always, that Cliff is sharing this info so we can take action. <br /><br />Dismantling and selling off a good but imperfect system is just stupid.JewelyaZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3035151275828838302012-12-11T09:32:08.070-08:002012-12-11T09:32:08.070-08:00&quot;Oh, but Sysiphus, the big thing in not reall...&quot;Oh, but Sysiphus, the big thing in not really just about Hurricane forecasting. It is about the day to day, 365 days a year forecasting. So the rapid &#39;strike force&#39; idea won&#39;t work.&quot;<br /><br />Fair enough. My comment was half tongue in cheek. The point is that for day-to-day stuff, we of course need good meteorologists, but the real lack of resources there at the moment is with the models and with how the agency is being run. Resources are not infinite, particularly with the deficit being so high, so we have to spend the money smartly, where it will do the most good. In terms of leadership, the NHC has had its ups and downs, but I think most would agree it has been doing a really good job lately. Perhaps that is a model? I don&#39;t claim to be an expert or have any deep knowledge of the situation, unlike Cliff and some of the posters here.Sysiphushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08483730910883469883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40940674547994468192012-12-11T09:29:17.809-08:002012-12-11T09:29:17.809-08:00How about taking a page from the SETI@home people,...How about taking a page from the SETI@home people, in which spare CPU cycles on home computers are used to analyze radio-telescope data for potential extraterrestrial intelligence? Could this type of approach be applied to US weather forecasting, distributing the job out to thousands or millions of computers?<br />Ideally of course the NWS should be funded to have top-notch computing facilities, but since that may not happen anytime soon...Brianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14414359070624275394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73048774474596950302012-12-11T07:54:13.473-08:002012-12-11T07:54:13.473-08:00Cliff -
Very insightful. I&#39;ll share your a...Cliff -<br /> Very insightful. I&#39;ll share your article.<br /><br />Chris Tomer<br />FOX-31/Channel 2<br />Denver, COChris Tomerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17285563187613834325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67957762731004083272012-12-11T03:24:49.110-08:002012-12-11T03:24:49.110-08:00orv, the no one ever got fired for buying IBM meme...orv, the <i>no one ever got fired for buying IBM</i> meme went out the door long back. Now IBM has vigorous competition in practically every field in which it competes, and from personal experience, we quite often pick non IBM products.resnickjhttp://resnickj.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79485469684143716282012-12-11T01:17:11.896-08:002012-12-11T01:17:11.896-08:00@Dan As pointed out in Cliff&#39;s post, NWSEO is ...@Dan As pointed out in Cliff&#39;s post, NWSEO is part of the problem. You said nothing at all to address that. While NWSEO has taken up good fights (ITOs for example), by and large NWSEO exists to slow progress, stifle innovation, and allow under-qualified and, dare I say, lazy meteorologists to persist in local offices.<br /><br />At the local level, NWSEO representation can be highly beneficial, allowing all NWS employees to work together toward a common goal of continually enhancing services to our customers. It can go south quickly though, where large disagreements erupt of simple placement of monitors (change in working conditions!). Attempts to alter or enhance our services can be met with strict denial as well at local and regional levels, with an undue large burden on managers to show beyond 100% the value of trying something different. Once you get to the national level, you have a group of entrenched representation that does not speak for all NWS meteorologists, especially the younger more aggressive crowd who instantly realize the value in becoming involved with social media, providing video briefings, and getting out of THE ZONES mentality. Rather NWSEO is seen as sticking up for those that insist on as slow and little change as possible, seeing nothing as broke (so why fix it?), and completely oblivious to the logistical constraints senior leadership must work with.<br /><br />NWSEO also refuses to even consider the possibility that the current structure of the NWS should change at all. Apparently the position of NWSEO is that having 122 field offices with a staff of 25 at each office is &quot;just right&quot;; that having one office serve the 12M+ people in the New York metropolitan area while five (5!) offices with a combined staff of over 100 serve the roughly 1M people of North and South Dakota is &quot;just right&quot;; that it is more important that the all important ZFP/text products are &quot;just right&quot;, ignoring that we are completely a digital society now with much higher temporal and spatial needs that are not served well at all with a text product of gross resolution from several decades ago. NWSEO should strongly reconsider this position with &quot;service above self&quot; in mind; that a small group of local NWS offices can be absolutely crushed by active weather (hurricane, tornadoes, blizzard) while literally hundreds of meteorologists sit idle across the rest of the country is &quot;just right&quot;.<br /><br />Yes, the &quot;higher ups&quot; shoulder a lot of blame for the falter of NWS, especially when it comes to modeling efforts. However they are not alone. How can an agency move forward when the single entity for representing employee&#39;s voices is so out-of-touch with the real needs and resources?2456af7c-4373-11e2-95c9-000bcdcb8a73https://openid.aol.com/opaque/2456af7c-4373-11e2-95c9-000bcdcb8a73noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31865595182467342032012-12-10T19:12:51.879-08:002012-12-10T19:12:51.879-08:00I like how Dan didn&#39;t disagree with the part a...I like how Dan didn&#39;t disagree with the part about the union slowing down innovation. And the part about Mesoscale models forecasting thunderstorms.veektorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09717742320539429258noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74178423455892685792012-12-10T17:53:43.593-08:002012-12-10T17:53:43.593-08:00Oh, but Sysiphus, the big thing in not really just...Oh, but Sysiphus, the big thing in not really just about Hurricane forecasting. It is about the day to day, 365 days a year forecasting. So the rapid &#39;strike force&#39; idea won&#39;t work. Joryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11735252169030449271noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2033293798833661372012-12-10T16:34:30.114-08:002012-12-10T16:34:30.114-08:00I&#39;m afraid that this one has gotten away from ...I&#39;m afraid that this one has gotten away from us, and it may be too far gone to fix it. If we can fix it, this will take a lot of willpower, because there is going to have to be a fundamental change in how the agency operates. Historically, the U.S. government has not done well in such endeavors - it&#39;s solution is usually to just create yet another layer of bureaucracy.<br /><br />A big monolithic agency is no longer warranted. Instead, like with the military, we need the equivalent of a rapid strike force to handle things like hurricanes, plus a top-notch research and modelling group to support the strike force. To do that, a lot of heads need to roll, and I don&#39;t think anyone has the guts to do that. Heck, just moving an office turns into a political pissing match of epic proportions, with senators, congresspersons and local politicians all trying to keep the office where it is.<br /><br />The fact that military desk jockeys are running the show is not the cause of the problem - it is the symptom. There are many agencies where the military approach to things make a lot of sense (e.g., nuclear energy), but weather prediction and research is not one of them!Sysiphushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08483730910883469883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-465116558589764692012-12-10T13:50:01.287-08:002012-12-10T13:50:01.287-08:00I cannot tell you how much the employees of the NW...I cannot tell you how much the employees of the NWS appreciate your comments, I assure you, your post is being widely distributed across the agency. You are spot on in your analysis of the current state of the NWS and of NOAA and I agree to a 95% level as to the cause of our problems. Where I disagree, is largely the underestimation of NOAA and their coveting of NWS resources as the main source of the problem. In spite of the issues outlined in your post, I see a very bright future for the National Weather Service, obviously after we make it through the doldrums we are currently in. Just for example, no organization anywhere in the world is in a better position to further our knowledge of operational mesoscale meteorology than the NWS. If we could only get NOAA to allocate some of it’s over $700 million a year in grant money to support meteorological research; re-wire the management of the agency to take advantage of its innovative employees at 122 locations across the country and a small investment in mesoscale modeling; mesoscale meteorological knowledge and forecasting techniques would expand exponentially. If you think about it, isn’t it silly that in 2012, we still have forecasters sitting in front of radars issuing tornado warnings, much the same as I did as an intern in the early 1990s and others before me did in the 1970s. Surely by now we should be modeling radar returns getting a jump on warnings. This expansion of knowledge would not only save lives it would have a direct economic impact on both private sector weather companies and out nation’s economy as a whole.<br />Mesoscale meteorology isn’t the only opportunity before us, space weather, water resources, climate research and operations to just name a few bring fantastic opportunities. We will get there, I am sure, with the help of forward thinking people like you and the folks at the Weather Commission as well as the many others who care about this agency, we will turn this ship around. We were very close just two years but as Concerned (who just hit it out of the park) pointed out above some leftovers in NOAA and the NWS itself were able slow the ship again by getting rid of Jack and Bob. Thanks again for your excellent analysis and thoughtful comments.Dan Sobienhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16459370927655369576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37504152392961583972012-12-10T11:49:40.584-08:002012-12-10T11:49:40.584-08:00As anyone in IT will tell you, buying hardware fro...As anyone in IT will tell you, buying hardware from IBM is almost always a sign of a CYA attitude at work. The saying used to be, &quot;no one ever got fired for buying IBM.&quot;<br /><br />Paddy: If privatizing the NWS were a reasonably idea, you&#39;d see the private weather forecasters clamoring for it. The reason they&#39;re not is they all rely on the NWS&#39;s observation network. The only pieces they want to privatize are the end results -- the forecasts. (This is why they fought for a while against letting the NWS provide grid forecast data, several years back.)<br /><br />It does sound like we might want to consider devolving the NWS into just collecting observational data, and then letting the Europeans run the models, since they seem to do it best.orvhttp://orv.livejournal.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13647582276813811042012-12-10T10:15:04.658-08:002012-12-10T10:15:04.658-08:00NOAA&#39;s and the NWS problems are systemic. NOAA...NOAA&#39;s and the NWS problems are systemic. NOAA does not have an organic act that ordains that the organization is overseen by a single committee in each house of Congress. Instead, each of five line organization reports to a different committee. NOAA&#39;s budget goes through the Commerce Dept. and the OMB on its way to Congress, where it&#39;s heard in the Commerce committees. Priorities and strategies are modified at every step. Any major reorganization requires an act of Congress.<br /><br />The only solution to the weather prediction/computer problem is through a specific Congressional line item that has the support of a Senator or two. Assuming it isn&#39;t waylaid by the bean counters who get their weather forecasts from TV stations.Herbert Curlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17284402843693197005noreply@blogger.com