QB Fantasy Projections – Week 4

QB Model Background

Our QB scoring model is built on a large sample of QB performances, making the predictions fairly conservative. The average predicted fantasy points from our model is right around 15, and predictions rarely exceed 20 points or dip below 10 points, so any predictions outside of the 10-20 point range are certainly notable.

To generate each Quarterback’s prediction, our model takes into account their stats from the last 7 games (completions, passing yards, interception rate, among others) as well as situational factors from their matchup (e.g., Vegas point spread, Vegas total, opponent Fantasy Points Above Expectation, and more). Within the context of our model, the strongest predictors of QB fantasy production are a favorable point spread, a high total, playing indoors, playing on a high scoring team, and playing on a pass-heavy team.

Week 4 Projections

This week is shaping up to be a big week at the QB position with the model predicting 5 players to score over 20 points (2 more than any other week this season). In addition to the usual suspects (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan) are Russell Wilson and Alex Smith. 2017 has been a relatively impressive year for Smith, and Week 4 looks to be no different for the people’s champion. As a home favorite with a total of 49.5, and facing an average Redskins defense vs. fantasy QBs (ranking 19th in fantasy points above expectation over their last 7 games), Smith has a conceivable path to a 20+ point week.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Andy Dalton. Although Week 3 wasn’t as pathetic as his first 2 weeks of the season, make no mistake, Dalton is a mess this year. Even playing the Browns can’t raise the Red Rifle out of the bottom tier of our QB projections. While facing the Browns is always appealing (they rank 5th in FPAE vs. QBs), there is still plenty working against Dalton here: playing outdoors, playing in a game with a low total, averaging 10.9 fantasy points in his last 7 games, and the Bengals are averaging just 16 points per game.

Sorry Derek Carr owners, after a rough game against Washington things, aren’t getting any easier as the Raiders head to Mile High for a date with the Broncos (I’ve been watching too many NFL promos). Denver remains one of, if not the only, defense that you don’t start a QB against, especially at home. The model predicts Carr to score 14.9 points this week and finish outside the top 20 at the position. In 5 career games vs. Denver, Carr has put up fantasy points of: 12, 7, 10, 13, and 8.