Retirements hurt Democrats’ House prospects

The absence of incumbent lawmakers has left much-needed seats vulnerable. | AP Photos

Some Democrats see the retirement picture differently. Ali Lapp, executive director of the House Majority PAC, a Democratic group that invests in House races, pointed to the retirement of Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) as particular cause for Democratic optimism. Prior to Runyan’s announcement that he wouldn’t be seeking another term, few Democrats had seen his district as particularly winnable. Now, Lapp pointed out, the party has a strong general election candidate while Republicans are likely to spend months mired in a brutal and expensive primary.

“I think that all these moderate Republican retirements have really expanded the playing field for Democrats. I feel like there are a lot of interesting places where we could end up picking up seats this fall,” she said.

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And if there’s a silver lining to the Utah and North Carolina retirements, Democrats say, it’s that they’ll no longer have to spend money there to prop up vulnerable members — money that can now be directed elsewhere. Some national Democrats estimate the party would’ve needed to spend $5 million to defend each seat.

Retirements aren’t the only dynamic that will have an effect on the battle for control of the House. Money is also important, and strategists for both parties are closely monitoring the dash for dollars. Despite Democrats being in the minority, the DCCC last year outraised its GOP counterpart. Through the end of last November, the DCCC raised $70.2 million, compared with the NRCC’s $56.5 million.

But many Democrats are worried that deep-pocketed Republican outside groups will play a profound role in altering the financial playing field. Since October, Americans for Prosperity, a Koch brothers-sponsored group, has already spent about $3.5 million targeting eight vulnerable House Democrats over Obamacare — an offensive that’s largely gone unanswered.

“Who knows what Americans for Prosperity will spend, who knows what American Crossroads will spend, who knows what the Chamber of Commerce will spend,” said Lapp, highlighting several other groups that are likely to spend on behalf of Republicans in 2014.

Israel, in the interview, pointed to the DCCC’s fundraising performance as evidence that the party is on the upswing at the onset of the election year. But he refused to predict that Democrats would win the House.

“I am not going to say in January that we’re going to be north or south of 17 seats,” Israel said. “That would be foolish.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misquoted Lapp on how Republican retirements would affect the election landscape.