For the record, in 26 hours and 26 minutes I'm not allowed to have a public opinion on any of this. I have done my best, in the face of weakness, lack of foresight, and recent man-child stupidity. You vote for the hell you live in. Have fun guys.

However, my job will remain to make the best of it, and I will continue to do it to the best of my ability. Jumble, signing off, until Purdah is over.

Spoiler:

Giant Speck wrote:You're a demon! DEMON!!!!

Oregonaut wrote:CURSE YOU VILLAIN!!

PhoenixEnigma wrote:Jumble is either the best or worst Santa ever, and I can't figure out which. Possibly both.

For the first time in decades, Scotland’s Tories have a confident gleam in their eyes. Almost exactly 20 years after being wiped from Scotland’s electoral map by New Labour in 1997, losing all its MPs, the party is on the brink of a Westminster revival.

The first Scottish opinion polls published since Theresa May announced the snap election suggest the Scottish Tories could win up to a dozen Westminster seats, nearly all of them at the expense of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National party.

A Survation poll for the Sunday Post put the Tories at 28%, against 43% for the SNP, with Sturgeon’s party seven points lower than its vote in 2015. At that level, the Conservatives would win up to eight seats.

For the Sunday Times, a Panelbase survey put Tory support at its highest since the 1970s, at 33% against 44% for the SNP. In theory, that would give the Tories 12 Westminster seats – a total the party privately regards as fanciful.

Yet such polls offer fresh evidence that the EU referendum result has disrupted politics in the same way the independence referendum did in 2014: this time the Tories appear to be the beneficiaries.

A poll on Monday suggested the Labour party faced losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918.

The YouGov poll suggested the Tories could win a majority of Welsh seats at a general election for the first time since the 1850s – before the era of mass democracy. The apparent shift seems to be the result of Ukip voters switching to the Tories.

At last year’s assembly elections Welsh Labour managed to distance itself from the UK-wide party and held on to power in Cardiff, but party sources worry that at a general election it is much harder to repeat that trick.

With UKIP voters returning to the fold in England too, I'd be amazed if the Tories didn't have a thumping majority in a month's time - which could be a horrible recipe for good government.

We don't have the Presidency, Senate and Congress to each reign in the worst excesses of the others, we simply have parliament - and Her Majesty's 'official opposition' could easily fracture into irrelevance for a generation... :/

That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

There are 59 seats in Scotland.The SNP hold 54 of them.The Conservative, Labour, and LibDem parties have one each.There are two independents (previously SNP).

Only one party has anything to lose in Scotland.

The Tories used to have a pretty good showing in Scotland, but I understand that disappeared in the Thatcher use. Labour, and Liberal Democrats to an extent, have generally done well in Scotland (2015 notwithstanding).

The joke, until recently, was solely about there being fewer Conservative MPs in Scotland than there are pandas. Edinburgh Zoo has two pandas (trying to get at least a third by the usual biological means), whereas there was only one Tory MP within Scotland.

At the last election, all but three of the 59 MPs for Scotland were SNP. There was that one Tory (in an England-bordering area), one Labour (Edinburgh South, not even a Glasgow area!) and one LibDem (Orkneys and Shetland, basically a wedding gift from Norway). Since then, two SNPers have become Independent for... reasons... and it sounds like those seats will be recontested with new SNPers this next time round. But SNP really have everything to lose. They're so dominant in Scotland that nearly any swing at all will disbenefit them and give someone something. But going from one seat to none is a possible fate for the other (local versions of the) national parties, depending on what happens between now and June. And it's much too early to say how that goes. It may well be that the Tories have peaked too soon in 'popularity', although I honestly think that the path to Labour victory (or indeed non-defeat) is trickier even than the LibDem one of even partial recovery to Coalition-time strength.

I know Shetland because I love geography and the very cozy Shetland murder-mystery series rebroadcast on PBS here.

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

When you catch the bus on Shetland, on a windy day (we're talking gale force, under beautiful bright blue skies!), to be told by the driver that the vehicle is only just back on the road after being blown off it a month or two ago... Yeah, cozy...

It's cozy when I'm snuggled up watching it on the couch with kitty and blankets and tea.

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

That is the pitfall of your style of government. First two years Obama could have gotten done a lot more vs. we'd have had Paul Ryan as PM the past few years (all things being equal).

Is Scottish Labour sufficiently tiny that they don't have many seats to lose?

Now hold on there, does the UK suffer from Gerrymandering or bias in vote to population?

Voting districts in the UK have a pretty consistent size, with most of them between 60-80 thousand people. There aren't any levels of authority above that (wrt parliament) that can be Gerrymandered. I took a class on this stoof a billion years ago in high school, so a real Brit should feel free to correct.

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

Also we have an independent boundary commission which limits the amount of gerrymandering (although there certainly is some). The big issue in Scotland is that it has always (in recent history) been a fair bit left of England (and therefore the majority of UK constituencies) and, after the independence referendum there was split fairly evenly between nationalists and unionists; this meant that the Scottish nationalists got a small plurality in pretty much every single constituency (because the nationalists all vote for them whereas the unionists are more split). It was first past the post that fucked up in Scotland not the boundaries.

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

Former Tory leader Lord Hague backed Britain leaving the single market and believes that an agreement can be reached with the EU for the UK which would mean “taking powers back, the sovereign powers back to the UK”.

However, he stressed that these new powers needed to be used in a “constructive way”.

“Which means continuing to have quite a liberal approach on migration, which is essential to our economy in the short-term anyway, so we take back control but we use that to enter a strong free trade agreement,” the senior Conservative told BBC Radio 4’s Reflections with Peter Hennessy.

“You can take back control of a gun but it doesn’t mean you use it to shoot your foot off.”

But he believes the Brexit talks are likely to be fraught with difficulties.

“The Government faces the most complex task of any government since the Second World War. It is a very difficult one,” he explained.

I'm fascinated to see what agreement, if they ever come to one, they reach over the NI/Ireland border. Seems the options are:

1. Customs border between Ireland and rest of EU2. Customs border between Ireland and NI3. Customs border between NI and rUK (NI stays in Single Market, rUK doesn't)4. UK stays in Single Market

#1 is never going to happen, free movement throughout the EU is something the EU would never negotiate.#2 is something the Irish PM threatened to veto any deal over, we don't want to kick that hornet's nest.#3 isn't great either, effectively splitting up the UK.#4 would be very sensible but a bitter pill for some to swallow.

In any case it seems the method for calculating the bill has been agreed upon so we'll get the final score soon. Nigel Farage is predictably furious.

This was one of those Brexit aspects that really annoyed me. If it wasn't for the heavy pressure from the EU,the UK was apparently planning to just walk away from all obligations. And the British leadership portrayed those obligations to the British public as extortion by the EU, a nasty price extracted because they can. All of it, not just some controversial subset.

It's such a bad-faith attitude, and it's repeated on every single topic again.

In any case it seems the method for calculating the bill has been agreed upon so we'll get the final score soon. Nigel Farage is predictably furious.

This was one of those Brexit aspects that really annoyed me. If it wasn't for the heavy pressure from the EU,the UK was apparently planning to just walk away from all obligations. And the British leadership portrayed those obligations to the British public as extortion by the EU, a nasty price extracted because they can. All of it, not just some controversial subset.

It's such a bad-faith attitude, and it's repeated on every single topic again.

And by acting like it's extortion, they make themselves look worse to the Brexit voting public when they eventually have to capitulate because, you know, reality. Can't wait to watch the toys exiting prams (toyxit?) if and when we stay in the single market.

Northern Irish I met in Derry over the summer were raring to go if a border sprung up. It was really something being in Derry and Belfast. The peace walls were intense.

There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name. But, she stressed, the BBC has not yet seen the draft document nor has it yet been signed off.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon reacted to reports that Northern Ireland could retain "regulatory alignment" with the EU by saying there was "surely no good practical reason" why other parts of the UK could not do the same.

But according to RTE's Europe editor Tony Connelly, a draft text being circulated suggests the UK is set to agree to a key Irish demand - that there would be "continued regulatory alignment" for businesses in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit.

Although the wording of any proposed deal on the Northern Ireland border is yet to be confirmed, the Democratic Unionist Party MP Sammy Wilson, was unhappy with what had been reported so far.

"We've made it quite clear that we will do nothing that would separate us from our main market , which is the United Kingdom - so how could they even deliver on such a promise," he said.

So, it seems that NI will still be in the single market, while the rest of the UK won't be, so the customs border will be between NI and the rest of the UK. So #3 on my list. It's a solution, but not a great one as the rest of the UK is NI's main trade partner. Also it sounds like Sturgeon will be pushing for Scotland to stay in the single market too, weirdly considering Scotland also mostly trades with the rest of the UK.

Grop wrote:Is it really a concession? I thought most Brits were happy about customs union and single market and unhappy about some other EU things.

The single market comes with it free movement of people, which certainly a lot of brexiters are vehemently, rabidly against. If the whole of the UK ends up staying in the single market then we'll basically be in the EU but without having any voting rights, much like Norway. It's still my preferred outcome (staying in the EU as much as possible will limit the economic damage) but it would certainly make a lot of people unhappy.

The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

Mutex wrote:The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

So, that leaves the entire UK staying in the single market then.

Does that make the EU stronger or weaker? Because if the UK was always a thorn in the side of the EU, wouldn't making it a nonvoting member be a good thing?

Mutex wrote:The deal failed. The DUP said they'd drop their support for the government if there was a border between NI and rUK. If only May hadn't called that snap general election she wouldn't need to rely on their support.

So, that leaves the entire UK staying in the single market then.

Does that make the EU stronger or weaker? Because if the UK was always a thorn in the side of the EU, wouldn't making it a nonvoting member be a good thing?

Yes and no. The UK might've been difficult but Germany apparently saw the UK as an ally against the southern countries, as the north and south (very broadly speaking) of the EU have quite different approaches to economics, with the north being more concerned with keeping a low budget deficit.

Daily Mail headline (just seen on newsstand, webbed version of story probably available, but not inclined to look it up) decries "Elitist" people who are mocking the return of the blue UK passports. Take the mote out of thyne own eyes, those who actually decided that the blue was better and wanted to return to relive its old glories.

I love to glance at the Mail's front page. It always makes my smile, be it through schadenfreude1, clownish antics on show or somewhere towards a wry grimace.

Anyway, with the change back to Blue, surely we shall once more go back to pre-Europe times! Or at least pre-Perestroika times, given it only changed to the (nice, IMO) Burgundy in '88. But an uncollapsed Soviet Union is a result, right?

I saw a headline from someone, either the Sun or the Mail (don't feel like digging it up), that went something like "In stunning victory for (our paper), UK chooses blue passport!" - I thought that summed up the sheer pettiness of the Brexit movement nicely.