The NHL is trumpeting
their new rules. They are showering their decimated fan base with pre-season
power plays and penalty shootouts. "Buy a ticket, see the game, we thrown
in 10 penalty shots for free! For a limited time only in an NHL arena near
you!"

People, these
are not new rule changes. They aren't revolutionary, they aren't original,
they didn't require thought or effort. The new rules are not an exciting experiment
with unknown results. They aren't a brilliant combination of tweaks that will
lead to a more exciting, marketable product. Read what Caps
Nut has to say if you want a run-down of each change and probable effects,
I'll just content myself with explaining what will happen this year. Doubt
me? Just ask the Magic 8-Ball, you'll see...

The NHL is essentially
adopting International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) style rules. The IIHF
is, of course, the world governing body for the sport. Most of the hockey-playing
world (Europe) plays by different rules than the NHL and other North American
leagues, so the IIHF and International Olympic Committee use the "International"
rules for their competitions. Apparently they don't consider the U.S. and
Canada to be "international" enough to qualify.

So the NHL wants
to increase scoring. We'll set aside the fallacy that more goals means a better
product, since arguing with them won't change their "chicks dig the long
ball" mentality. These new rules, though, will have virtually no effect
on scoring.

Period.

End of story.

I guarantee it.

You can quote
me on it and come back in two years and say "Matt Witting, you're an
idiot and you were wrong." Of course I'm not wrong, so you actually won't
be able to do that, but the principal of the thing is what counts.

Caps Nut covers
many of the technical reasons for why the new rules won't help and why scoring
won't increase. He delves into how shrinking the neutral zone helps trapping
teams, regardless of the two-line pass. He examines the pad sizes, the icing,
the line changes, and all that. I won't. I love that theoretical argument
stuff, believe me (just read my Salary
Caps 101 piece from a couple years back), but in this case I don't want
or need to go into maybes or potentials. See, I've got actual, physical, observable
evidence: it's called the Deutschen Eishockey
Liga (the DEL, the 1. Bundesliga, the German premiere hockey league).
I live in Germany, I've got season tickets to the Mannheim
Adler (lost in the finals to the Eisbären
Berlin last year), I've seen these "new, exciting rules" in
action, twice a week for three years.

The DEL has touch-up-offsides,
they've got no two-line pass restrictions. They have ejections and suspensions
for any fighting, not just in the last five minutes. They've got bigger offensive
zones relative to North America. They key in on rivalries, though with a shorter
season and fewer teams that's not surprising. They have a shootout to decide
ties and, to one-up the NHL, they don't even bother with overtime first! The
refs are super strict and super inconsistent, always the case when they are
forced to make that many judgement calls with an eye towards "it's a
penalty."

So, with all
this, you'd expect the DEL to be a high-scoring league, right? Well, no, actually,
not really. Scoring in the DEL is pretty close to the NHL. It is a teensy
bit higher, but that's mostly due to the fact that they play on the big international
sized rinks, not small North American ones. The large number of penalties
also leads to a few extra goals, but not many all things considered.

So they don't
really score more, but they do have a more exciting product, right? No. It's
more open in some ways, but cluttered with tons of whistles. You've got whistles
for the tight enforcement of obstruction calls and physical play. You've got
the constant whistles from the icings when they miss two-line passes. You've
get endless neutral zone cycling as the defensemen only come into play in
their own zone, afraid to cheat up because of the two-line pass rule. It's
a fun game, and the larger ice makes for lots of nice passing and skating,
but it's hardly more exciting than the NHL and the Germans freely admit to
this.

Folks, I've seen
these rule changes in action. They won't help, they'll alienate the purists
just when the NHL needs those fans, and I can't see new fans getting excited
over smaller goalie pads and touch-up offsides.

Oh, and as for
the shootout, the Germans would prefer golden goal overtime. Having seen God
knows how many shootouts over the last three seasons, I agree. Penalty shots
just aren't as exciting any more. They're a novelty, but not a solution to
the problems. It helps that the DEL awards 3 points for a win, 2 points for
a shootout win, and 1 point for a shootout loss: the real win is worth much
more. Here's an idea on that topic: do like college football. Give each team
alternating 1 minute 5-3 power plays after a 5-minute OT. First team to score
and hold the opponent scoreless gets the extra point.

Argue all you
want, but this is how it will be. The NHL is instituting international rules
on North American sized rinks. They could have stuck with the offsides change,
which makes sense, and smaller goalie gear. Instead we get this cobbled together
mess of lines, changes, and confusion. Get ready for the whistles, and I hope
everyone enjoys minor penalties.