Presidential debate: Key audience will be Hispanics

A worker cleans lint off the background of the stage for a debate at the University of Denver ,Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012, in Denver. President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will hold their first debate Wednesday. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

As President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney meet in their potentially pivotal first debate Wednesday, one crucial audience for them will be Hispanic voters, particularly those in battleground states.

But it’s unlikely that either candidate will specifically aim messages at Hispanic voters, instead relying on more general themes about the economy and other issues to reach them, said Gary Segura, a political science professor at Stanford University and a principal in Latino Decisions, a political opinion research firm.

“Maybe Obama might try to get a dig in, but I think that unless Romney is specifically asked a question about Latinos or immigration, he’ll say nothing. If asked about either of those topics, he’ll offer his stump lines about Latino unemployment. That will be it,” Segura said.

Romney would be taking a risk in making a direct appeal to Hispanic voters or other specific groups, said Gregory Rocha, a political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso.

“Although one could argue that Romney has the greater need to appeal to Hispanics, it would not sit well with the base of the GOP to single out any one group — Hispanics, women, etc.,” Rocha said.

Hispanics make up more than 10 percent of the electorate in three battleground states – Florida, Nevada and Colorado. But they could also play a decisive role in very close elections in other swing states where Hispanic presence is still small but rapidly growing.

“It remains to be seen. But in places like Virginia and North Carolina, Hispanics make up less than 5 percent of all eligible voters. However, their share has grown in just four years,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington, D.C.

New Mexico has been a battleground state in recent elections, but strong Hispanic support for Obama has the state leaning Democratic in 2012, Segura said.

This year’s first presidential debate, at the University of Denver, may be the candidates’ last chance to alter the arc of the race. Polls in recent days have shown Obama with a narrow but consistent lead both nationally and in a number of battleground states.

Among Hispanic voters, Obama’s advantage is even more pronounced. Tracking polls since late August by Impremedia/Latino Decisions have shown Obama steadily growing his advantage over his Republican challenger.

The most recent tracking poll of Hispanic voters released Monday showed Obama with a 45-point lead over Romney among Hispanics, up from 39 points in late August. Only 6 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed in the most recent poll remain undecided.

“Governor Romney’s campaign and the (Republican National Committee) will continue working hand in hand to bring the Republican message to Hispanic voters across the country,” said Alexandra Franceschi, specialty media press secretary for the RNC. “We have teams in 15 states, we have an aggressive paid and earned media strategy, and have reached out to an unprecedented number of voters through phone banks, door to door efforts, and other grassroots initiatives. We will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that the Hispanic community receives the Romney-Ryan plan for a stronger middle class.”

The Obama campaign did not respond to questions about the debate from the El Paso Times.

When asked whether Romney will use Wednesday’s debate to aim specific messages at Hispanics, Francheschi emphasized the GOP ticket’s primary message throughout the campaign.

“Poll after poll shows that jobs and the economy are the top issues for Hispanics. Governor Romney’s economic plan speaks directly to the Hispanic community because it tackles the economic issues facing our country starting with his first day in office,” she said. “Hispanics, like all Americans, simply cannot afford four more years of the Obama administration’s policies.”

But Segura, the Stanford political scientist, said the focus on the general economic GOP argument won’t be enough to switch Hispanic support from Obama to Romney. The GOP message on immigration is a major sticking point for Hispanics, he said.

“There are two kinds of issues. In one, we agree on the ends but disagree on the means. Economics is one of those,” he said. “On issues such as these, folks overwhelmingly tend to revert to partisanship in assessing blame and trusting future plans.

But on other issues, there’s no consensus on the ends. “Immigration is one of these. The GOP is on the wrong side of this issue for about 85 percent of Latino registered voters,” Segura said in an e-mail interview with the El Paso Times. “So the theory that you can talk economics and overcome the immigration disability has not (and will not) worked out for the GOP.”