Abundant rainfall in December and January brought total cumulative October to January rainfall to above-average levels. This is now likely to result in average, though delayed, maize harvests in February. In Bubanza, Kirundo, and Muyinga provinces, which were previously identified as areas of concern given rainfall deficits at the start of the season that delayed planting, key informants report that ongoing harvests of beans, bananas, cassava, and sweet potatoes are average to above average. The availability of Season A harvests is expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2019.

Low food prices and seasonal agricultural labor opportunities from Season A harvests and Season B land preparation are improving household purchasing power and food access. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, national-level cereal and non-cereal prices in December 2018 were 15.1 and 21.8 percent below December 2017 prices, respectively. Although aggregate food prices increased by 0.7 percent from November to December 2018, the price of non-cereal staples (beans, banana, roots and tubers, and vegetables) dropped by 0.7 percent, and these constitute the bulk of poor households’ diets.

Highly vulnerable populations in Burundi include 43,000 Congolese in refugee camps, 143,000 IDPs, and 56,000 returnees. The number of Congolese refugees and asylum seekers in Burundi has remained stable following DRC’s presidential elections in December. Most of these populations depend on food assistance, which is maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, but planned assistance is not fully funded through May. The 2019/2020 DRC Refugee Regional Response Plan indicates humanitarian organizations and the Government of Burundi intend to prioritize sustainable livelihood options for refugees and host communities, but progress towards this goal will be slow if funding shortfalls persist.