Happy 2015 to all the StormCarib readers where ever you are located. Hope that 2015 will be the year full of blessings to all. Well we are officially in the dry season but we still welcome day time and early morning showers. In Trinidad there are still light to moderate showers which brings a cool and refreshing start to the day. These light showers are due to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone drifting south after the hurricane season. The ITCZ drifts to south America this time of year which affects the moisture around Trinidad and Tobago. Hope everyone is having a great night.

Well the second approachment is on the way ( by early afternoon ) but beginning pre-dawn tomorrow.

This is NHC:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS COAST ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION.

Should I fail to tell you this one is no better than the last and waves will be two feet higher. And convection will be stronger even hazardous.

While we still have hazardous time for prevention, while removing the danger

we could all just say Eastern, Western, Northern and Southern Caribbean?)

Our first (what I call) 'approachment' for winter is bearing down on us.

It is noteworthy for two reasons, ...

- The effects of this first one will tell us what to ignore in the next.

(Prevention-wise)

- The north coast and Tobago last year in the second approachment had 7 foot waves battering and grounding small sailing vessels unexpectedly.

This is NHC:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 20- 30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA N OF 13N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

Good morning to the StormCarib family. For the past few days here in Trinidad we have had moderate showers which would just spring up on us from out of no where. Espically in the Piarco area at the airport. These rains are welcomed cause they bring a cooling to the hot mid day sun. I welcome the rain once it stays moderate though. Hope you all have a blessed day.

TTMET Issues Flood Bulletin for Trinidad and Tobago The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued a flood bulletin at 11:30 am informing the public that due to recent rainfall activity, citizens will experience more prolonged and widespread street and flash flooding, as well as riverine flooding. Reports from the Water Resources Agency indicate that some sm...all rivers particularly in North Eastern and Central Trinidad have over spilled its banks, while water levels in the large rivers are significantly high and may reach threshold levels as a result of expected run-off from the current rainfall. Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious as they conduct their daily activities given forecast weather conditions. All citizens (especially those residing in the Caroni area) are asked to be on alert for rising river levels and possible overspill at this time. Rainfall activity is expected to continue over the next 2 to 6 hours. The ODPM, as the lead coordinator of disaster management, is in contact with all first responder agencies (TT Fire Service, TT Defence Force and the municipal corporations) so that immediate assistance can be rendered if any adverse impact occurs.

If I don't call 'Impact', people seem to want to say it will not happen.

and

I did not call this one in 36hrs. because I had a relapse of 'chicungunya'.

Sally from Grenada is awfully correct. (Thanks for giving me a lighter side

to the morning.)

This is the biggest of the last three, inclusive.

I am only guessing but the wind seems to have been driven out of it.

To repeat "Lots of precipitation ensuing, ...."

My take on coping with it, ...,

If you have no business in traffic stay out of it.

Need to do more research (when able) just an early post.

God bless Bermuda and all of us

- Tropical wave to continue to affect Trinidad and Tobago over the next 6-8 hours

From: Katy Young <katy at sbms.co.tt>

Date: Thu, 23 Oct 2014 09:28:50 -0400

Latest update from TT Met - stay safe out there

Katy

Date: Thursday 23rd of October 2014 ISSUED AT:06:28AM

TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE AFFECTING TRINIDAD & TOBAGO OVER THE NEXT 6 to 8 HOURS

The axis of the Tropical Wave has passed over Trinidad and Tobago and the hind leg of the wave is currently affecting both islands producing... light to moderate showers and some of which have been heavy and thundery in some areas over the last few hours.

Cloudy periods can be expected today with intermittent showers and thundershowers. Gusty winds are expected to accompany thundershowers. Current analysis and Weather Prediction Models suggest that the weather conditions associated with the passage of this wave will continue to affect Trinidad and Tobago for at least the next 6 to 8 hours with improvement from mid-afternoon. Tonight is forecast to be settled despite few periods of light rain.

Rainfall accumulations from this wave is expected to be between 25 to 50 mm. The showery activity can yield moderate to severe street or flash flooding and strong bursts of gusty winds are expected to be in excess of 55 km/hr especially in thundershowers.

Citizens are advised to be alert to electrical discharges from thundercloud activity and to adopt measures which would safeguard lives and property given the forecast conditions.

WE STRONGLY UNDERSCORE THAT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH OR WARNING. The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is closely monitoring weather conditions and will issue another bulletin at 6:00 p.m. today or sooner if the situation warrants.

Aside from whimpering about the past, my sister left Glasgow, Scotland

and is sailing around the globe. Just like Dave and Gert she now has an appreciation for 'fish storms'. She and her husband were caught up in the gale off north Africa ( near Tenerife ). From the way she communicated, the worst is over.

Why I bring this up is if we think that it is inconvenient to go to the supermarket

in traffic before adverse weather. And the other fashionable preparations.

Imagine being surrounded in 'soft-land' with only 27 ft. of elope wood. And definitely no street lights or electricity on a full time basis.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO PRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER TOMORROW

An active Tropical Wave with axis approximately 560 km east of Trinidad
and Tobago is forecast to produce inclement weather conditions
tomorrow 22nd October 2014 and lasting for about 48hours thereafter.
This wave shows no sign of further development before it approaches the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Moderate to heavy showers can be expected with some showers becoming
heavy and thundery. Rainfall accumulations from this wave is capable of
producing 25 to 50 mm of rainfall. These downpours can yield moderate
to severe street or flash flooding and strong bursts of gusty winds in
excess of 55 km/h especially in thundershowers.

All
interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to adopt measures which would
safeguard lives and property given the forecast conditions.

WE STRONGLY UNDERSCORE THAT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE, WATCH OR WARNING.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is closely monitoring
weather conditions and will issue another bulletin at 9:00 am tomorrow
or sooner if the situation warrants.

These few days have been filled with both hot and humid conditions followed by heavy rain fall. Here in Trinidad we have had record temperatures in day time heating. Temperatures reaching over 35 degrees. With this intense day time heating we have had mid day thunder showers as any time after lunch you can look outside and see dark thunder clouds growing in the distance. We have had some intense rainfall. Lets just continue to watch the chain reaction with the day time heating and thunder showers.

What were considered probable fatalities in St. Martin and St. Bartholomew

(not Anguilla) have been recovered and rescued.

[read: St. Martin/Martinique]

So, ..., let's see,

Grenada and Trinidad have to be thankful.

Anguilla is not only thankful but highly proactive.

Most islands experienced manageable conditions.

The fishermen were recovered in the French dependencies.

Let's hear a Great Big ~ THANK YOU ~

"to whatever you believe saved us from further disaster."

(and retribute.)

" 'Bermuda' you will never know how much I am in this with you."

Locally and Regionally, a tropical blob disengaged from a low-pressure center

moving due north. (What we call a fish storm.)

This tropical wave is invisible and is going to affect us in 12 - 36 hrs.

I don't know how long it will last.

All I know the early part of it is very weak.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N45W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 14N48W TO 12N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUFG
AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

All it takes is one.

May God Bless You !

- - * IMPACT * -

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 11:07:06 -0400

I am real busy right now and this weekend.

I can't help you now.

And there is a bigger one behind.

My entire and WHOLE focus,

will be to help you afterwards.

Don't say I say,

But storm surge can be 10' - 12' feet.

(This is not my area.)

God bless

- Phew ! -

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Tue, 7 Oct 2014 05:46:30 -0400

Pleasant Day, People of Paradise,

The rain hasn't stopped falling each day.

It however is no longer in any way hazardous

except for saturated soil,

a drizzle to high level cloudy scattered showers.

In 72 hrs. all the islands (specially north of Trinidad),

will experience what Grenada & T'dad felt.

There is a cyclonic axis at 40 W. We have drizzly conditions.

And there's a Tropical wave in between.

During this season when the situation described below occurred

islands were adversely affected.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N38W 13N38W 9N36W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 25N38W CYCLONIC CENTER.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N54W 19N56W 13N57W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
25N51W 22N53W 19N53W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND
55W.

Don't lower your guard but thank God for dry-air.

- ??? Boomerang Depression ???

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Fri, 3 Oct 2014 17:35:26 -0400

I really don't know what to make of the weather patterns

we are having in the southerly islands.

Everyone, I mean everyone said it was going to be short-lived.

When I even begin to start to think subconsciously it will stop.

It rains with wind.

As if that was not enough, when perplexed I look at the barometric readings. Some goon for the past three days keeps putting back a tropical wave line joining the the Sahara Sandwich at 50 W. and 10 N. everytime his line reaches T'dad & T'bgo. (ie. 60 W.)

I refuse to assist the traffic situation and general instability and will stay indoors and break my diet and try new recipes (specially with fruit) with my one child family and no wife.

God bless

- Repeating to avoid unnecessary risk, ...

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Wed, 1 Oct 2014 17:53:11 -0400

As is visible and reported,

rain started in T'dad and will continue overnight well into tomorrow.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO
20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 56W. PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 60W IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

(Before I read NHC above I too couldn't believe I saw cyclonic movement (barely visible) in the more westerly wave.)

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO
9N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

Good Afternoon. After a hot and sunny morning there came a tremendous amount of rain with some huge boomers and some ferocious lightening. All seems quiet at the present moment with cloudy skies. Waiting to hear if any damage was done.

Bye for now.Michael Abouhamad

- Tropical Wave continues Monday re: Eastern caribbean

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Sun, 21 Sep 2014 22:45:33 -0400

The weather in T'dad for the weekend as I mentioned was rainy

but somehow during the night while cool and wintry

was devoid of thunderstorms. Only during the day.

One can read between the lines in Grenada

to see if this continues what to expect. Right now

at 10;OO p.m. Sunday Barbados will get her chance.

In the following reference, note that the middle is passing tonight

and the tail has not reached as yet.

If you can trust my analysis Tuesday morning

it will all be over and the sun will shine.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 11N62W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SSMI
TPW SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 47W-63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W WHICH INCLUDES THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

that the tropical wave approaching the Leewards is going to miss them completely.

This is not so. There is moisture down to Barbados.

[ref: NHC]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N57W TO 12N58W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20
KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 23N55W TO 15N58W.

It is not cyclonic and should not stop the beautiful weather we are having.

God bless

- Note and Recall, ...

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2014 05:34:03 -0400

P/Vly, D'go Martin, T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.

Tuesday 09th September 05:00 a.m.

Good Morning, Good Day, People of Paradise,

The iguana and its babies have not appeared for me to share any further pics.

I wonder if its afraid of the kitten that is now a bob-cat.

(Or the dog with three-legs.)

Anyway those of us I share my thoughts with before writing,

would like you to interpret three factors in the attached images:

- SAL (dry air) Latitude and Longitude.

- Southerliness of High Barometric Pressure and The ITCZ (moisture).

- The pattern of the last three tropical waves and a couple before that.

(By the way and at the same time the actual Bahamas

seem to be having a tough go this season.)

Recall,

working backwards for your edification and awareness:-

After a storm:

1. It's the worst part.

2. There is no cooked food (for many reasons).

3. Water and Waste is a big, big problem.

There may be a state of emergency which means

life and death situations where trained people are risking their life for others.

The rain cleared up by the early afternoon and tonight is quiet and dry. There was some flooding in Debe, an area south of here. The pictures taken by a motorist show that it was very bad in parts and that both homes and small business places suffered from the flood waters. Work on the highway extension to Point Fortin is being blamed for at least some of the flooding in Debe but this is still speculation and has to be confirmed.

I hope that Bertha brings only blessed water to the parched islands and that there will be no serious damage or destruction and certainly no injury or death.

- Tropical Wave reaches southern Windwards

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Tue, 26 Aug 2014 16:58:08 -0400

2014-08-26th. Tue. 4:45 p.m.

P/Vly, D'go Martin, T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.

We are a little under the weather with a flu and elections coming and a new era of youth involvement that needs the steadying hand of the older and wiser, (God forbid!). I love to read and research (besides entertaining in my home) and this is a time for not only that but producing literary work.

- The Sahara Dust is coming back.

- Most model guidance heads the circulating tail of this tropical wave north of The Leewards or dismiss it totally. (Quite a probable fish - wave- )?

However it has reached T'dad & T'bgo and is nothing more than 'more than one rain shower a day'.

I really, really don't know but I suspect that there is quite a shift in coastal sea temps hence the seas are generally going to get worse until after Winter. Winds as I said are not mentionable.

Results for Barbados (13.07N, 59.48W):The eye of the storm is about 302 miles (486 km) away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 17.5 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 17.3 hours* to reach you. Given the current windfield (175 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 7.3 hours.

Good Night. Its has been a while since I posted on this network. Seems like something is about to give in the next couple of weeks of the hurricane season. Trust that everyone will be prepared. Bye for now.

Regards,Michael Abouhamad

- An ill wind blows no good

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 17:26:25 -0400

2014 - 08 - -13th. Wed. 17:05 (5:05) p.m.

Trinidad & Tobago, West Indies

Good afternoon, People of Paradise,

Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada had two tropical blobs pass thru within the last 7 days.

Another one is passing tonight and tomorrow.

Rainfall was non-significant, waves were not dangerous, and what I want to talk about, ....

Winds are coming from the ESE at period gusts fairly sustained at 12 - 17 mph.

By now this everybody knows is a bad sign.

When overcast, the clouds are about 1,200 - 1,500 ft. with even higher tops.

Between 4:00 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. the high-end storm 'Berta' made landfall.

First west and north in Martinique then straight over Dominica, the entire island of Dominica.

What appears to be a somewhat protected eye is forming 40 - 75 miles north-west of Dominica, south-west of Guadeloupe.

That's all I observed.

Save to say,

It's storm area is not much less 200 miles.

and

It's diameter stretches from Trinidad to way past Anguilla.

With a eastern side that has no keep-back from delivering a blow.

In other words landfall, lay low !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whole night !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pray, Plan, Prepare and Procure

in the Name of God.

- More rain!

From: Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>

Date: Fri, 01 Aug 2014 13:35:12 -0400

The rain is coming down in torrents now and we are having more lightning and
thunder than before. Bertha obviously didn't want Trinidad and Tobago to be
left out! We need the rain as we, too, have not had enough rainfall to meet the
needs of our reservoirs. As has been mentioned by correspondents from other
islands earlier though, we don't need flooding or landslides as an extra...
Regardless of the annual mouthing of our politicians, utility authorities and
of our citizens, we really do not play a proactive role when it comes to
preventative measures re flooding. Efforts may be made by a few individuals in
communities and perhaps in positions of power but it has to be a collaborative
effort on the part of ALL of us.

- South Trinidad

From: Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>

Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 17:34:59 +0100

We awoke to a bright, sunny and stiflingly hot morning but by 11.00 a.m. dark clouds began to gather and we could hear the odd rumble of thunder. We have had a few flashes of lightning and some loud thunder in the last half hour or so and it is raining steadily at the moment. As the day progresses, I will keep updating, especially if there is any dramatic change in the weather.

is about 60 hrs. away from full Impact. Or 7:30 a.m. Saturday morning!

Bearing waves over 10ft., winds of 30 kts. with higher gusts,

Rainfall is dependent on forward speed and SAL content near the center.

Which could be anything over one inch which will be a relief to all islands baring its hazardous nature.

Talking about 'Hazards and Perils', it makes landfall on a Saturday, probably nowhere near you. So stay put in one place and don't add to any type of trauma or confusion thus endangering the situation and first responders. If necessary, continuously and without criticizing, ASK FOR HELP! Before, During and After, .... ASK FOR HELP! You have to be certified, qualified and equipped to handle emergencies. Lastly, remember it's a team effort!

The Weather Forecast for T'dad, ( a quick glance at the weather forecast of other islands {notably Barbados and Guadeloupe} ), the indisputable comments of Dr. Jeff Masters and whosoever he puts to write, and other pertinent but not less significant in their own right writers, I see:

T'dad: 80% chance of rain with thunderstorms.

B'dos: Cloudy.

Guadeloupe: Cloudy.

Other areas: passing clouds.

NHC: (couldn't be better written):

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...AT 23/0300 UTC...WAS
NEAR 13.4N 51.4W...ABOUT 590 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N
TO 16N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN VENEZUELA
AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

This I wholly agree with and couldn't be better written.

However I would translate some facts contained above that people need like how they need graphic satellite images which is not reality and far more so is not what represents a tropical depression.

- TD. #2 is about 36 hours away. (the axis).

- a. It is 600 miles away and is about 100 miles in diameter moving 15 kts. WNW. (averaging).

- b. That means when not if it dissipates or intensifies, it will be 175 - 325 miles in diameter.

I am not looking for work or leadership and feel greatly pleased we now have truth and reality on the pages of our media. It was unbalanced before. People can take care of themselves even children, given reality.

God bless

- Thunder!!!!!

From: Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>

Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 16:30:46 +0000

Trinidad and Tobago

As I finished post I heard some intense thunder in the background. Hope everyone stays safe and dry.

Rain continues over these few days in Trinidad. This is from a weak tropical wave that is passing the the southern windward islands. These showers are not as intense as Friday but the ground is still saturated with all the rain over these days. Flights are still disrupted due to the bad weather especially domestic flights to Tobago.

Regards,Stephen Abouhamad

- Huhm, ...

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 05:27:22 -0400

2014 - 07 - 20th. Sun. 04:55 a.m.

Petit Valley, Diego Martin, T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.

No room for complacency, ...!

To tell you the honest truth, it was difficult and uninteresting to get true my reading of the daily news this morning. However there were two areas that are heartening;

The news have sub-treated the interests of their stakeholders and conveys more reality.

Stephen from Trinidad in stormcarib posted what I wanted to say. He is from South and Trinidad is bigger than people realize.

I don't like how things will look or are looking.

And the simple reality (which everyone is facing and conveying) are the forecasts are for rain to continue today and tomorrow with a blob that has no room for complacency 4 - 7 days away.

(I agree with earlier posts before the season began 'Bertha' will be the one to watch. More from historical experience than superstition.)

Well the solution is first to define the problem then give it to the Lord in prayer.

A pleasant good night everyone in the StormCarib family. Hope everyone is dry tonight after what transpired earlier today. Today was a wet day from early as 5am. Showers, Thunder Storms and Gusty Winds. This was cause by a Tropical Wave that was intensified with the I.T.C.Z. Continuous rain fall was felt throughout Trinidad and as the media reported tonight that many areas were flooded out with some streets being submerged.Its been a long while since I have seen weather conditions change so quickly. Many times today I was tricked to think that the rain was going to stop and within five minutes the dark clouds just rolled back in to prevent any sunshine from squeezing in.The intense weather caused many flights today to be delayed and even cancelled which made my work more difficult. Hope you guys have a good night.

Regards,Stephen Abouhamad

- Passing Clouds and Showers, ..., - (Conserve) -

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 09:34:18 -0400

Only because of the 36 hour deadline I comment on a few items of interest.

Otherwise it's all passing clouds and showers that I give thanks for, ....

Thanks Almighty!

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N52W TO 12N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS AS PART OF A GREATER 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-
60W...OF WHICH THE WEAKER 700 MB TROUGH IS S OF 12N ALONG 51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 50W-57W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N56W TO 20N53W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE SE OF THIS WAVE...THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A
BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT BETWEEN 50W-60W. IT IS LIKELY ENERGY
FROM BOTH THESE WAVE WILL MERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

Although we have had overcast skies all day, we have only had a few short-lived
showers. At the moment, though, it's raining very heavily in San Fernando.
Thankfully, our reservoirs will be getting some much-needed inches if this
continues. I heard a news report that says that a dam in Tobago is operating at
25 per cent capacity.

- Out of Nowhere, (No circulation), ...

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 06:26:12 -0400

I am afraid in less than 24 hrs. the SAL air layer has dispersed enough for the next tropical wave less than 24 hrs. away from Port of Spain to hit us with precipitation that needs attention.

Aside: Tobago and the Point Fortin and parts of South-Central Area were hit by heavy winds in the last tropical wave.

One can only say thanks and hope that the respite from the barren heat and dryness

is replaced with the refreshing waters of The Trade Winds

in this summer season of blossoms and plenty.

There are a few points of interest that as brothers and sisters

with experience some others may miss and are worth mentioning.

If things continue to pan out as they are unfolding,

there will be no cause for alarm.

First, my heart-felt feelings go out to the people of Mexico

who have experienced today what will turn out to be,

a possibly fatal earthquake.

(They already live in a desert and the mouth of a volcano

and experience Pacific and Atlantic storms.)

The Bahamas just recovering from the 1st. on the 1st. July

is also worthy of attention again because the blob that

keeps rejuvenating in wind-shear is up to it again.

Also of more than passing interest is the next blob 4 - 7 days away;

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 02N25W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 08N29W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NMOF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

As for t'dad & t'bgo, locally, the next blob will pull a draught thru us from tonight bringing mild refreshing showers.

Sorry, made a serious blooper, but my husband's travels cover the years from 1972 (not 1992 as I mistakenly wrote previously) to 2013.

The mosquitoes are merciless. To bed I must go.

- Not an awful lot of rain - yet

From: Christine Westmaas <chrisalis1003 at yahoo.co.uk>

Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 04:57:50 +0100

While we have had some rain in Trinidad and Tobago since the start of the rainy season, it has not been enough to pacify the water management authorities who are watching reservoir levels with some concern. There has been some scheduling of the water supply to conserve supplies and to alert the population to the need to use water wisely. Before we know it, the dry season will be upon us but hopefully the rains will come in sufficient abundance to satisfy the country's needs and to have enough extra stored as well.

On a personal note, my husband launched his book of travel tales yesterday. Entitled "Out of the Box", it is a compilation of his adventures from 1992 to 2013 and covers Latin America from Mexico to Argentina, some of the Caribbean countries (including
but not limited to Cuba, Jamaica, Martinique), Morocco and South Africa and parts of Europe. At the launch we exhibited artifacts that we have collected since our honeymoon through Venezuela to Peru in 1974 to those collected from Spain and Morocco last year. Unpacking and re-placing them in the house is not on my list of eagerly anticipated things to do! The occasion was made even more special as it coincided with our 40th wedding anniversary.

The mosquitoes are out in their usual huge numbers tonight, despite every effort to eliminate breeding places. It seems that this is a problem plaguing many areas around the country. With dengue fever a very real threat, the mosquito masses are a cause for serious concern. Even when the health authorities spray the area, there is no relief from the creatures which even find their way under the soles of your feet to inflict their itchy bites by day and by
night.

I think that's my cue to say "Good night!"

- Out of my area but not League

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2014 21:56:12 -0400

I have to comment on a blob that just passed us and rekindled its blob nature right in the middle of wind - shear.

When I was allowed and invited to contribute here after the disaster in Haiti. I have always said the legislation for Mother Nature are archaic and not money-making. In fact they seem to have been ad hoc means to deal with a current situation and not capitally planned, financed and income bearing. The grouse then was spastic electrical outages esp. during bad weather. Now today we have to do something about pools, dams and reservoirs. Irrigation and Drainage.

I remember throwing stones in a river so that infants could bathe in a pool. (Primitive times I know.) Any way the fact that monopolies control electricity, the water-courses and water retention and distribution seem to need some attention and may I say be given to private individuals like those who remember the good ole days. (Not forgetting the role of first responders.)

God bless

- Thanks, thanks, ..., Thanks!

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2014 05:29:24 -0400

Good Day, Good Everything, People of Paradise,

Thank God, so far, ....

The following could be a problem for The Windwards tonight and tomorrow and The Leewards the following day in terms of street flooding

Well we are already at the 17th of June and it shows that the rainy season has begun. It has been a slow start to the season as always with no named storms as yet. But thats the norm here. Lets sit and wait to see how it shapes up. These days we are hardly having any rain at all with lots of sun. But its only the start. We need to keep our eyes open.

Regards,

Stephen Abouhamad

- Rain

From: Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>

Date: Mon, 16 Jun 2014 05:02:12 +0000

Trinidad and Tobago16/06/14

Pleasant Good Morning. Happy Belated Fathers to everyone. Hope you all had a wonderful day. Lots and lots of rain early yesterday morning. Hope no one got flooded out. The tropical wave made its presence felt. We are all sitting in wait for the next tropical wave which is expected in the Caribbean in the next 48 hours. Bye for now.

Michael Abouhamad

- Wave and Cyclone - 2 Different Things

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2014 16:44:40 -0400

2014 - 06 - 11th Wed.

T'dad & T'bgo, W.I.

16:30 (4:30) p.m.

Let's recall please,

- A tropical wave and a tropical cyclone is two different things.

- A tropical cyclone can develop anywhere at anytime. (Heat and Pressure).

- Satellite images and conditions on the ground and on the sea are different.

Having gotten that out of the way, a tropical blob will peak 48 hrs. from now and start in Trinidad and Tobago tonight. In my opinion;

[see: NHC forecasts, ... (Everybody has it right.)]

God bless

- Rain and more rain

From: Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>

Date: Sun, 8 Jun 2014 02:00:40 +0000

Trinidad and Tobago

San Juan

07/06/14

Wow the rainy season has started off with a bang. These past two days here in Trinidad and Tobago have been filled with lots of rain, wind, thunder and lightning. I felt the effects of it last night as i made my way home from work. The rains came down a little after 9pm while i was on work and the rains continued straight into this morning. It was some weather i must say. Hope everyone is safe tonight.

Regards,

Stephen Abouhamad.

- Hot Sun

From: Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>

Date: Thu, 5 Jun 2014 05:36:33 +0000

San JuanTrinidad and Tobago5/6/14

A pleasant good morning to all readers on Storm Carib. Seeing that it is the start of the hurricane season we are hoping that this season will be quite but as faith would have it it takes just one storm to make its presence felt in the Atlantic basin. At the present moment these days it is hot and sunny with a light breeze at times. Everyone be safe.

Regards,Michael Abouhamad

- (Typical) Borderline Convective Conditions

From: Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>

Date: Sun, 1 Jun 2014 11:54:30 -0400

2014 - 06 - 01st. Sun.

11 : 45 a.m.

T&T, W.I.

Hi everyone, Happy Sunday !

This post is historical reporting in three parts rather than future forecasting.

One, it's more relevant to areas further in the chain of tropical things.

Two, it is typical trinidad weather ( refreshing ) at the beginning of the rainy season.

Three, it is bordering on cyclonic but definitely convective for the last day and a half.

Winds, very few, gusting just below 35mph.

No blackout, but a serious attempt at a white-out.

The insane heat of previous years before and after rain is not present.

Thank almighty God for the heavenly juice that gives us life in a moderate shower.

Thank God!

That was the second tropical wave, leaving the southern Windward Islands

and going up to the northern Windward Islands.

The third tropical wave is about 48 hours away and too early to call.

It left the ITCZ with notable activity, or circulation but once again it's too early to tell.

As for me it seems to be headed for inland south America.

Thank God

- Rain

From: Katy Young <katy at sbms.co.tt>

Date: Sun, 25 May 2014 07:30:40 -0400

Morning all,

The first real rain for months is now falling on Tobago. For the last two hours we've had rain, which the island desperately needs as many areas are now on a water schedule because the reservoirs are so low. Below is the forecast for the rest of the day.

Have a great Sunday

Katy

ISSUED AT: 05:36AM
Date:Sunday 25th of May 2014
Meteorologist: Gary Benjamin
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Cloudy periods with showers or rain in varying
localities and the chance of thundershowers in a
few confined areas.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Sunny with interruptions of mainly light showers
in a few areas.
SEAS: Normal to Moderate occasionally Choppy
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5m IN OPEN WATERS
1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius
LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP.
Piarco: 24 Crown Point: 24
FORECAST MAX. TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:38PM
Date:Saturday 24th of May 2014
Port of Spain HIGH 1.04a 2.00p LOW 7.39a 7.33p
Scarborough HIGH 1.03a 1.27p LOW 7.36a 7.41p

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological (Met) Office has
official declared the start of rainy season today.

In a statement is says:

Trinidad and Tobago experienced cloudiness and showery
activity overnight into this morning. This showery activity has been associated
with the passage of a Tropical Wave over the Southern Caribbean.Rainfall activity as a result of the passage of a Tropical
Wave or the influence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), whichever
is first, heralds the start of the Rainy Season each year.

Over the 12-hour period beginning at 8:00 pm (19th May
2014), the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service recorded 1.6 millimeters
of rainfall at Piarco, Trinidad with higher rainfall accumulations occurring in
other localities.Sequences of rainy episodes can be anticipated to ensue over
the next four (4) to five (5) months, interrupted by short-lived fair
conditions. The rainy season is initially forecast to be near normal.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service wishes to
re-assure the national community, that in keeping with our mandate, we continue
to closely monitor weather conditions around Trinidad and Tobago and will
continue to advise the general public in a timely manner about any impending
adverse weather conditions which are likely to affect our islands.

Definitely from tonight, Sunday night, the weather we've been having for the last two to three weeks will become more pronounced. That is rainfall will become more sustained and recurring. Sometimes a little over-bearing. Tonight I forecast will last definitely more than a day and a half, (less than three).

This is for Trinidad & Tobago. I haven't factored in the other islands.

Sea conditions have nothing to do with what T'dad & T'bgo is experiencing currently. This as we all know will improve over the coming months if not weeks.

Lastly I normally write Gert at gobeach when the season starts, but I include everybody this time and invite you to look at wind-shear over a) Eastern Caribbean b) Colombia c) Florida and Bahamas. Then look at sea temperatures. Qu./ Isn't there a common hazardous point?

The good news is I agree with even the skeptics that 'out-of-control' global warming is on the wane and with 'El Nino' almost normal conditions will apply this season. Thus predictable. But then again there is SAL (Sahara-Dust) or (Dry-Air). Going back to Gert whom I have alot to thank for, "It only takes one."

Recently, (since my mom's passing), I did not have my vehicle. So my ability to see the coast and fishing depots and what I mean, the bigger birds, the migratory birds has gone caput.

The leaving of the scissors-tail (maybe swallow), back to the Northern Hemisphere, also signifies besides Spring, that 3 - 5 weeks after the rainy season is coming. Its leaving is normally accompanied by the first set of heavy showers, then a long dry period.

However there are other signs. One we know very well. The poui tree blossoming and decorating the dry hill slopes.

I can go on. But what we need to predict is not only Spring is here. But in 3 -5 weeks the rainy season will be here. (Even if it's a dry, humid one.) Attached is the South American weather coming north or The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone rising above the equator to 10 Latitude.