Rejecting the future

The United States relinquishes its leading international role by abandoning its commitment to the Paris climate agreement

June 1, 2017

The United States and Britian have turned inward and away from their places in the international order. Germany and France are preparing to take their place, Geoff Kitney writes.

Two great voices of the post-war era of advocacy of Western leadership in promoting peace, democracy, liberal values and economic development have fallen silent.

It is almost shocking that in a matter of less than 12 months, the United States and Britain have walked away from their roles in what has been the most productive period ever of human development through collective action by leading nations.

Both have turned inward and away from their places in the international order. Both have allowed small-thinking isolationists to take control of their destinies and, as a result, weakened them and the great progressive project whose success owed much to their leadership.

An image from last week’s G7 summit in Sicily of US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May sitting side-by-side, each looking sullen and lost in their own thoughts, captured the essence of this jolting change.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel captured what she believed it meant in her post-G7 observations to a German audience. “The times when we could fully count on others are over to a certain extent,” she said. “I have experienced this in the last few days.”

Then she went on to describe what she believes this means.

“We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands, of course in friendship with the United States, in friendship with Great Britain, with our neighbours wherever possible, also with Russia.

“But we must know that we need to fight for our future ourselves – as Europeans, for our destiny.”

She might also have added: “The world is now looking to us”.

The early signs are that in the key European capitals, there is recognition that European leadership is now important beyond European borders.

With President Trump’s announcement that the US is pulling out of the Paris climate change agreement, and with the strong joint statement by Merkel, France’s president Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni immediately rejecting Trump’s call for the agreement to be renegotiated, we may already be seeing the first signs of a new western leadership order.

For those who believe that the world is best served by continuing on the path of liberal, democratic progress – and there is every reason to believe that this is still a clear majority in the democratic world and much of the developing world – Merkel’s voice has suddenly become a clarion call.

It will be strengthened by the recent rejection by European voters – in Holland and France – of the European versions of divergent politics represented by Brexit and Trump.

What is interesting about this is that this choice is being made by countries that have fresh memories of the consequences of what happens when populism and nationalism take the all too easy step to brutish extremism.

The US has never known it. Britain felt its hot breath, but was spared by the collective efforts of the Western allies that fought to not only save Britain but to make possible the international order that has proven to be so beneficial to the world.

This is what I don’t understand about Brexit.

How could the British have been conned by the idea that it would serve Britain and its important role in the world by turning in on itself, away from the nations with which it has worked since it joined the European Economic Community to create the stability, security and prosperity which have been the great conditions of Western democratic societies since the middle of the 20th century?

How was it possible for Remainers not to be able to convince a majority of voters that this project was worth continuing to be part of – and that the ills that leaving were supposed to cure would be most likely cured by staying in the EU?

Two central motivating arguments for the leave vote – that it would “cure” Britain of the curse of multiculturalism because it would end mass immigration and allow Britain to lead the world in trade – have already been proven to be based on distortions and exaggerations.

Whether Leave voters cared about Britain’s voice in the world is unclear, but one thing is for sure – with its deep pre-occupation with the actual, complicated mechanics of separating from the EU, Britain’s leaders are not going to have much time to think about anything else for at least the next two years.

And given that British English is the only language that Donald Trump is likely to be willing to listen to, this is a very serious loss for the world as it faces the consequences of a Trump-driven American retreat.

In these circumstances, it is easy to see why those who understand the importance of defending and promoting the international values for which the Trans-Atlantic Alliance has been the foundation are now looking to Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron tonight invited the world to work with France to protect the planet

In particular, they are looking at the newest partnership of world affairs – that between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, the recently elected centrist French president.

In the gloom of the past 12 months, the emergence of Macron and the encouragement he has given to Merkel to step up to the task of being a leader for all of Europe, are the positive developments that were needed to counter increasing despair.

With Trump demented and Britain distracted, wise and strong European leadership was never more necessary.

The big challenges that Trump is shirking and Britain is too pre-occupied to give much thought to – economic leadership, standing against increasingly extreme nationalism and authoritarianism, refugees and migration, co-operative global action on climate change and relieving global poverty and inequity – are all causes to which a Merkel-Macron partnership can provide desperately needed leadership.

But their challenge is to look beyond Europe, even though much of the early energy of their partnership will be directed at reform of the European Union.

People outside Europe have as much hope invested in their European leadership as those inside it.

The early signs are that in the key European capitals, there is recognition that European leadership is now important beyond European borders.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15