Monday, June 23, 2014

NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data.

However, environmentally, things will get worse before they get better - and they may not get better.
What do 75 years of cooling portend? Maybe a slow-moving apocalypse: "A Cold Dawn Coming."

[O]ne of the best predictions of climate ever made (weighted for distance and accuracy) was by two Californian researchers, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi. In 1979, they used tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon to make a remarkably accurate forecast. From a Los Angeles Times interview of that year,

When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show low!r average temperatures from now through the mid-1980s. “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold—if we believe our projections. This has to be tested.”

How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”

And now it has been mostly confirmed.

A just-released climate model using a notch-delay filter has the promise of providing much higher resolution in climate forecasting. Using historic TSI data, the model can see out to 2025:

Figure 2: Notch-Delay climate model and the UAH temperature record with a projection to 2020

These kinds of falling temps would have highly lethal affects, especially in underdeveloped areas of the world. Why? Colder temps move the growing season south - for corn it moves south about 90 miles for every one-degree drop. Presently, the United States is a massive food-exporting nation, but if the falling temps come to pass, the United States will stop exporting food in 2030. We'll need all we produce just to feed ourselves.

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