THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: Political Pulse -- California; Bush's Downhill Political Journey in California

By R. W. APPLE Jr.,

Published: October 11, 1992

SACRAMENTO, Calif., Oct. 10—
"Four more weeks," the hecklers chanted gleefully as Vice President Dan Quayle tried to make his way down Grant Street in San Francisco's Chinatown the other day.

In that sarcastic message, if in nothing else, the demonstrators seemed to speak for California as a whole. This immense state, whose 54 electoral votes represent the largest share of the national total cast by any one jurisdiction since the Civil War, has turned with a vengeance on President Bush and his Administration.

He seems certain to be drubbed here by Bill Clinton on Nov. 3, and since California has formed a keystone of Republican victories for two decades, that makes it much harder for George Bush to put together a national majority. Moreover, his astonishing unpopularity in this state -- the most recent poll by Mervin Field shows the President 21 percentage points behind -- may doom Republican nominees to defeat in important Senate, House and legislative races as well. Needed: "Grand Slam"

This was to have been the golden year for the Republicans of the Golden State. Eighteen months ago, Mr. Bush seemed sure to carry California again. The impending retirement of Senator Alan Cranston seemed to open the possibility of electing two Republican senators this fall, and the reapportionment necessitated by the state's explosive growth seemed to open the possibility of a House delegation split 26-26, compared with the current 26-to-19 edge for the Democrats.

Now Mr. Bush is written off by most Republican leaders; one said this week he would need "a grand-slam home run in every one of the debates" to turn things around. Representative Barbara Boxer and former Mayor Dianne Feinstein of San Francisco, both Democrats, are heavy favorites to give the state the first pair of female senators in Washington. The Democrats may end up with 29 or even 30 House seats from California.

So what happened? Plenty.

"The economy is 75 percent of the answer," Ms. Feinstein said in an interview this week. "Californians have always believed that this is the pot at the end of the rainbow, the land of the second chance, where people come for hope. Now that hope is being replaced by anxiety and apprehension as we lose jobs, solid blue-collar jobs, the $20-an-hour jobs that made this state such a prosperous place. 'People Are Scared'

"In the last two years, 44 percent of all the jobs lost in America have been lost in California, and people are scared."

Gov. Pete Wilson, who defeated Ms. Feinstein two years ago, did not disagree with her. He said it was impossible to overestimate the political impact of the decline of the real estate business, now "flat as a fritter," as he put it, and the rapid shrinkage of the state's big military contractors and military installations.

"There has been a devastating ripple effect," he said. "In the last two years, $25 billion of projected state revenue, a quarter of our income, has gone, vanished because of the economic stall."

The result, says Mr. Field, the poll taker, is "an electorate more pessimistic and lugubrious than any I can remember since the Depression, when I was a kid." The current weakness in the economy, "plus the palpable evidence that the United States is slipping as an industrial economy," he asserted, "has invaded every pore of the California body politic." 'He Hasn't Done Anything'

Gerald Warren, who worked for Richard M. Nixon in the White House and now edits The San Diego Union, said the recession was costing the Republicans more votes than it might do otherwise because "we're losing our manufacturing base, and people sense that those jobs are never coming back."

"Mr. Bush is paying the price because people think he's completely incapable of turning things around," Mr. Warren added. "It makes me sick to say it, because I'm so fond of George Bush, but he's far too weak. He doesn't stand for anything, and he hasn't done anything. This is a solidly Republican county, but he's dead here, absolutely, unless he can seize the initiative in the debates. I don't see any real chance of his doing that, either."

If things are tough for the President in San Diego County, they are not much better in Orange County, the almost mythically conservative realm between San Diego and Los Angeles. In a poll completed late last month, The Los Angeles Times found Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton running almost even there, a disaster in the making for the President. Four years ago, when he carried California with a bare 51 percent, Mr. Bush still took 68 percent in Orange County. New Democratic Approach

Phil Angelides, the 39-year-old state Democratic chairman, thinks a change in his party's approach has helped considerably.

"We used to bridle at the Republicans' charges that we were nothing but a bunch of special interest groups, but when I became chairman, I realized they were right," he said. "Everyone wanted a place at the table, even though there was nothing on it to eat. Being out of power forced us to unite, to start early, to work hard."

The opposite happened to the Republicans. Electoral cycles are imprecise, but with the Republicans having held the statehouse here since 1966, with the exception of Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr.'s tenure, and having held the White House since 1968, with the exception of Jimmy Carter's term, they were bound to run out of gas soon.