Jordan Pressley, left, operates the highly-automated Masterfold 170 at Packrite in High… more

Julie Knight

The numbers illustrate a Triad manufacturing base that is becoming stronger as companies increase productivity but with fewer workers overall, according to a Business Journal analysis and anecdotal evidence from several area companies (See vignettes below and on page 11).

According to local economist Don Jud, the total number of Triad manufacturing jobs stood at about 80,800 as of February 2013, a 5 percent decline from 85,146 jobs at the end of the recession in June 2009.

And the number of manufacturing jobs that the Triad had as of February represents a 20 percent drop from the 101,660 it had at the start of the recession in December 2007. Even that is a 24 percent drop from the early 2000s when the Triad had about 134,000 total manufacturing jobs.

While the number of Triad manufacturing jobs has declined, wages are only slowly rising. The average annual wage for Triad employees with production occupations — including machinists, welders and textile workers — is $31,043, according to the state Division of Employment Security.

While that’s up about 12 percent from $27,536 in 2004, Andrew Brod, a senior research fellow in UNC Greensboro’s Center for Business and Economic Research, says that those wages have not kept up with inflation.

“It means they are falling behind,” he says.

Many causes, no easy solutions

Both Brod and Jud say myriad factors are at play, from an uncertain national economy and low consumer confidence to a reluctance among manufacturing companies to hire overall.

“Uncertainty is high right now, and it has a lot to do with our uncertain economic policy,” Jud says.

So what, if anything, can local policy makers do about it? After all, no one can fault the companies themselves for becoming more efficient with fewer employees. In the short-term, “I don’t think that there is much that the governments can do,” Jud says.

In his view, the recovery of the local manufacturing base is predicated on the health of the national economy, not efforts of local policy makers.

“There are just so many question marks,” Jud says. “I think until that clears up, the economy is not going to be growing as rapidly as it could be. If housing continues to rise and uncertainty comes down, we could start growing 3 percent to 4 percent. Uncertainty is still holding us back.”

Long term, local governments could implement policies that will make the Triad area more attractive to businesses from a tax and education standpoint.

“Greensboro property taxes are high,” Jud says. “We are 20 percent higher than in Charlotte and 40 percent higher than in Raleigh.”

Better-educated students

When it comes to math and reading levels, local schools are still below the state average, he says.

Brod echoed Jud on the importance of education. A skilled and educated work force is imperative to grow and attract businesses, especially at a time when today’s manufacturing workers need more skills to operate sophisticated machinery.

“We still have a low level of educational attainment relative to other metros in this state,” he says. “Maybe we don’t need as many Ph.D.’s as they need in the Research Triangle, but it’s still the case that we need better education outcomes than we do now.”

Marketing the Triad’s efforts to nurture an educated work force could “catch the attention of site location consultants” and other business executives outside of the Triad, he says.

But like Jud, Brod cautioned against drawing the conclusion that a manufacturing comeback in the Triad could be solved by local policy-makers alone. Doing so would be a “fool’s errand,” he says.

Rather, it’s important to understand that job creation in manufacturing is indicative of weak job creation across the board nationally.

While the number of Triad manufacturing jobs has declined, the total number of manufacturing jobs nationwide seems to be rising, albeit slowly.

As of February 2013, the U.S. had about 12 million manufacturing jobs, a 2 percent rise from the 11.7 million jobs at the end of the recession. That’s still well below the 17 million manufacturing jobs that the country had before the recession of 2001.

Although the general economy has been recovering since December 2011, manufacturing is still in a recovery phase after production fell 20 percent between 2007 and 2009, says Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist with the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation in Arlington, Va.

“In terms of production, this was a horrific recession,” he says.

Although manufacturing is coming back, companies are hesitant to hire.

“Companies will go to great efforts not to hire people,” Meckstroth says. “They don’t like to hire somebody and then lay them off. It’s not good for their reputations.”

That’s not to say there won’t be opportunities for growth in the future.

“In every industry, there are people who retire,” he says.

Even so, the nation is in a “slow growth economy and everything is coming back slower than it should,” he says.

Reach Katie Arcieri at (336) 370-2913 or karcieri@bizjournals.com.

Katie Arcieri covers manufacturing, aviation and economic development for Triad Business Journal. Contact her at 336-370-2913.