Tom Corbett

June 03, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Pennsylvania poll finds Democrat Tom Wolf with a significant lead over incumbent Republican Tom Corbett in the race for Governor, despite support for Corbett’s decision not to appeal a recent court ruling on gay marriage.

Tom Wolf currently holds a 25-point lead over incumbent Governor Tom Corbett, bolstered by their diverging approval/favorable ratings, as Wolf picks up 55% of the vote to Corbett’s 30%. Pennsylvania voters have a strongly negative view on Corbett’s job performance, with 27% approving and 58% disapproving of his performance.

On the other hand, voters have a favorable opinion of Tom Wolf by a similar margin, with 47% viewing him favorably compared to only 20% unfavorably. Wolf naturally has strong support amongst Democrats, with 79% of the vote, but also picks up almost a quarter (24%) of the vote from Republicans, and a large majority (63%) of the vote amongst independents.

PPP's first poll of the general election for Governor in Pennsylvania finds a race that isn't remotely competitive. Democratic challenger Tom Wolf leads Republican incumbent Tom Corbett 55/30. Wolf's 25 point lead has more than doubled from the 12 point advantage he had over Corbett on PPP's last poll of the state in November.

The biggest story in the race continues to be Corbett's unpopularity. Only 27% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 58% who disapprove. But Wolf is also proving to be an unusually strong Democratic candidate. He has a +27 net favorability rating, with 47% of voters seeing him favorably to only 20% with a negative opinion. His strong numbers with Democrats (68/10) are unsurprising given his margin of victory in the primary, but even with Republicans he comes close to breaking even at a 29/32 favorability.Wolf is winning over 24% of Republicans while losing just 10% of Democrats to Corbett, and he also has a 43 point lead with independents at 63/20.

One thing voters do agree with Tom Corbett on despite his overall unpopularity is the decision he made not to appeal the court decision legalizing gay marriage in Pennsylvania. 56% of voters say they agree with Corbett's decision to only 33% who disagree. Those numbers come among growing acceptance for gay marriage in Pennsylvania- for the first time in PPP's polling a plurality of voters in the state support it with 48% in favor to 44% who remain opposed. That represents a 20 point net shift on attitudes toward gay marriage in the state over the last two and a half years. In November of 2011 we found just 36% of voters supported it with 52% believing it should remain illegal.

November 26, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. – Already probably the most endangered governor running for re-election next fall, Tom Corbett’s chances of winning have only slipped further since PPP last polled Pennsylvania in March, and he is now the most unpopular governor of 43 on which PPP has polled. Only a quarter of Pennsylvanians approve of their governor’s job performance, with almost two-thirds disapproving (24-65), a drop of 17 points on the margin from the previous poll (33-58).

Corbett now earns only 30-33% of the vote, and trails even the most unknown of seven potential Democratic opponents by 12 to 20 points. He lags Jack Wagner 50-30, John Hanger 51-32, Rob McCord 50-31, Allyson Schwartz 48-33, Katie McGinty 47-32, Ed Pawlowski 45-33, and Tom Wolf 44-32. In March, Corbett’s deficits were seven to 11 points against Hanger, McCord, Schwartz, and Wolf. He is doing an average of almost seven points worse now. Wagner (45% name recognition) and Schwartz (42%) are the best-known Democrats, with the others between 25% and 31%.

Tom Corbett's situation has gone from bad to worse in the eight months since PPP last polled Pennsylvania. Corbett is now the most unpopular Governor anywhere in the country that we've polled, with only 24% of voters approving of him to 65% who disapprove. It's gotten to the point where Corbett's numbers are even upside down with Republicans, only 37% of whom approve of him with 51% disapproving.

Corbett already trailed his potential Democratic opponents by 7 to 11 points in March but those deficits have increased to 12-20 points now. He trails Jack Wagner by 20 (50/30), John Hanger by 19 (51/32), Rob McCord by 19 (50/31), Allyson Schwartz by 15 (48/33), Katie McGinty by 15 (47/32), Ed Pawlowski by 12 (45/33), and Tom Wolf by 12 (44/32). All of the Democrats win at least 23% of the Republican vote, and take independents by at least 22 points.

There's not much doubt Republicans would be better off with a different candidate. We also tested Schwartz in hypothetical match ups with GOP Congressmen Jim Gerlach and Mike Kelly. Despite each having only around 30% name recognition statewide, they each do 7 points better in a head to head than Corbett. Gerlach trails 39/31 and Kelly has a 41/33 deficit. Corbett has poisoned the well enough for Republicans that they'd start out at a disadvantage even with a different candidate, but they'd at least be in a range where they might be able to come back.

March 12, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. –
Tom Corbett is in bigger trouble than ever, trailing all the Democrats PPP tested
against him—when he led them all just two months ago. The first-term Pennsylvania governor is down
11 points (34-45) against U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, and by an identical
margin against former Rep. Joe Sestak and state Treasurer Rob McCord. Corbett also lags behind businessman Tom Wolf
by nine (33-42), and John Hanger by seven (34-41). When PPP last polled the state in January,
Corbett led Hanger by four points, Sestak and McCord by six, Schwartz by seven,
and Wolf by 12.

Corbett’s deficits are even more remarkable when one considers that these
prospective opponents are unknown to the vast majority of voters. When asked whether they have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of them, only 52% can say how they feel about Sestak, 38%
about Schwartz, 31% about Hanger, 30% about McCord, and 22% about Wolf. To boot, the large group of undecided voters
in these match-ups is strongly Democratic, and they disapprove of Corbett even
more than the overall electorate does, so this could actually represent closer
to the governor’s ceiling than his floor.

Tom Corbett- already among the country's most unpopular Governors- has seen his position worsen considerably over the last two months. Only 33% of voters now approve of his job performance, compared to 58% who disapprove. His net approval rating of -25 is 11 points worse than it was in early January at -14 (38/52). The only 2 Governors in the country with a disapproval rating higher than Corbett's are Pat Quinn of Illinois and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island.

In January we tested Corbett against Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak, Rob McCord, John Hanger, and Tom Wolf and he led all five of them. Now we find him trailing all five of them, in some cases by double digits. Corbett is down by 11 points each to Schwartz, Sestak, and McCord all by margins of 45/34. Tom Wolf leads by 9 points at 42/33 and John Hanger's up by 7 at 41/34.

What's particularly noteworthy about the substantial leads all of the Democrats have is that they come despite them all being relatively unknown. Sestak has only 52% name recognition and that makes him the famous one of the bunch- Schwartz is at 38%, Hanger at 31%, McCord at 30%, and Wolf at 22%. Most of the undecideds in the match ups are Democrats so it's possible that as the eventual candidate becomes better known they will build up an even bigger lead.

January 07, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. –
Pennsylvania voters support Tom Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA...but it's
still not doing much to improve his overall political fortunes.

52% of voters support Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA over its sanctions
against Penn State, while 34% are opposed to it. That's a reflection of the
fact that 62% of Pennsylvanians think the sanctions against the school were too
strict, compared to only 27% who think they were 'about right' and 8% who think
they were too lenient. 49% of voters in the state consider themselves to be
fans of the Nittany Lions, and among those folks there's 63/23 support for the
lawsuit.

Despite the support for Corbett on the lawsuit, voters are still unhappy
with his overall handling of the Penn State situation over the last few years.
Only 27% approve of the way he's dealt with it to 50% who disapprove. That's
contributing to overall approval numbers that continue to be very poor- only
38% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to 52% who disapprove.

Pennsylvania voters support Tom Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA...but it's still not doing much to improve his overall political fortunes.

52% of voters support Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA over its sanctions against Penn State, while 34% are opposed to it. That's a reflection of the fact that 62% of Pennsylvanians think the sanctions against the school were too strict, compared to only 27% who think they were 'about right' and 8% who think they were too lenient. 49% of voters in the state consider themselves to be fans of the Nittany Lions, and among those folks there's 63/23 support for the lawsuit. The 51% of voters who don't identify as Penn State fans are opposed to the suit by a 45/41 spread.

Despite the support for Corbett on the lawsuit, voters are still unhappy with his overall handling of the Penn State situation over the last few years. Only 27% approve of the way he's dealt with it to 50% who disapprove. That's contributing to overall approval numbers that continue to be very poor- only 38% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to 52% who disapprove. That -14 net approval ties him for the 4th most unpopular sitting Governor PPP has polled on.

We tested Corbett against 8 potential opponents for reelection in 2014, and he polls at only 40-42% against every one of them. The only one he actually trails in a head to head is his predecessor, Ed Rendell, who would start out with a 46/40 advantage were he to attempt the comeback. Corbett would be tied with Attorney General Kathleen Kane at 42%.

November 12, 2012

On our final polls for this election cycle we also looked ahead to the 2014 race for Governor in every state that has one, testing the sitting incumbent against a generic opponent of the opposite party. Here's what we found, grouped into three different categories:

Folks in a whole lot of trouble:

Many of the Republicans who were swept into office by the wave election of 2010 may have a hard time winning a second term if 2014 doesn't prove to be another huge year for their party.

In Pennsylvania Tom Corbett trails a generic Democrat 47/37. In Maine Paul LePage trails a hypothetical opponent from the opposite party 49/41. Both of them became unpopular pretty early in their terms and have stayed that way.

Other Republicans who look highly vulnerable next time around are Florida's Rick Scott who trails a generic Democrats 48/44, and Ohio's John Kasich who leads a potential foe only 44/43. The good news for these folks at least is that their numbers have been on an upward trajectory during their second year in office- they both trailed by much wider margins at this time a year ago.

Folks who look favored for another term, at least for now:

Three other Republican Governors elected in 2010 lead hypothetical Democratic opponents for 2014 by single digit margins- they look like favorites for now but could become more vulnerable. Those are Michigan's Rick Snyder (47/41 against a generic Dem), Wisconsin's Scott Walker (50/43), and Iowa's Terry Branstad (49/40). All three of these Governors posted pretty poor numbers during their first year in office but have seen significant improvement in their standing in year 2.

Democrat Dan Malloy of Connecticut also belongs in this category. We've tended to find him as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country so far but he saw a major improvement in our last poll to the point where he led a hypothetical Republican foe 48-37. It's hard to say what might have produced such a sudden, substantial improvement- perhaps his leadership during the hurricane? if that is the case we'll have to keep an eye on whether his improved numbers are permanent or just fleeting.

Folks who look pretty safe for now:

Democrats Mark Dayton of Minnesota and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, and Republican Brian Sandoval of Nevada have all had consistently high approval numbers since taking office and continue to. Dayton leads a generic Republican 51/38, and Hickenlooper does 54/33. Sandoval leads a generic Democrat 55/32.

November 03, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find
Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer
than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in
Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him
favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with
women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a
similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white
voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states
with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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