What the Future Holds for GM's Products: Analysis

Today GM, once the world's largest automaker, followed in Chrysler's footsteps as the second of the big three domestic automakers to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The filing will likely create two GMsone with strong assets and another company that will house weak assets that the courts would likely liquidate. Here's a look at what the future may hold for GM's products.

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GM has already announced it will close the Pontiac brand and Saturn is likely to follow if a buyer cannot be found. Saab is up for sale and is currently under bankruptcy protection. A majority portion of GM's German subsidiary, Opel, will be sold to Canadian supplier Magna in partnership with Russian automaker GAZ, but GM will likely retain a portion of the company.

Experts agree that a quick two- to three-month bankruptcy would be the healthiest scenario for the company to return to profitability. "I think it will be done in a 60- to 90-day period," says Haig Stoddard, auto analyst for IHS Global Insight. "They'll work 24/7 to come up with a resolution even if it means [the government] pumping a little more money into the company." But GM is a much larger and more complicated entity than Chrysler. Jim Hall, managing director for 2953 Analytics, agrees it might take longer: "Could the bankruptcy filing and all the paperwork go between now and the end of the calendar year? Yeah, that's foreseeable. It could be also be resolved in three months. But coming out of bankruptcy in two months--well that's probably science fiction."

The length of the bankruptcy will determine exactly what happens with GM's production facilities, which in turn could affect future products. If it is a short bankruptcy, Stoddard says GM may decide to shut down its plants for June and July, as Chrysler has done. But if the process drags on, those idling plants would need to come back online eventually to begin feeding dealer inventory again. And closing plants could hold up the installation of tooling for new models. However, Stoddard says he doesn't think it would delay any redesigns coming out this year, such as the new Buick LaCrosse or Cadillac SRX.

But idling GM's plants could seriously affect already-struggling suppliers. Visteon and Metaldyne, for instance, have filed for Chapter 11. "The longer [plants] stay down, the longer the ripple effect in the industry," says Hall, "It will decimate suppliers." Stoddard believes that in the longer term, over the next two years, suppliers will be able to refocus and make up that lost volume with other manufacturers.

One certain fact is that the GM of the future will be much smaller than it was a just few years ago, or even today. The new GM in North America will likely be composed of Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC. Once Saturn, Hummer, Saab and Pontiac are jettisoned, the company will offer approximately 20 fewer models. IHS Global Insight predicts that the new GM will be roughly two-thirds the size it is now, with the company's North American market share slipping from today's 22 percent to around 15 or 16 percent. The new GM would have annual U.S. sales volume of approximately 3.5 million vehicles. This leaner company, Stoddard believes, "will move away from having a market share fixation and have a viable and profitable business."

Even with four of GM's eight domestically sold brands eventually shuttered, more product trimming will need to happen. But aside from some solid cars for the company's immediate future, like the 2011 Chevy Cruze, 2010 Cadillac SRX and 2010 Buick LaCrosse, there are some great products reportedly in development now. "They've tried to cut as little out of engineering and design as possible. And the guys in design are very busy right now," says Hall. Here are a few of the moves analysts are predicting and the vehicles we are likely to see within the next few years from GM.

GM might choose to eliminate one body-on-frame SUV for Chevy and GMC lineups--either the Yukon/Tahoe or the Suburban. Or the trucks will move to a lighter unibody platform.

Cadillac version of Chevy Volt to help amortize cost of Voltec powertrain. The planned rear-drive Cadillac sedan below the CTS, reportedly smaller than BMW 3-series, is on indefinite hold. And the Cadillac flagship sedan code named "DT7" has been canceled. But there is an entry-level front-drive Cadillac in the works.

A 2012 Buick compact sedan will be based on Chevy Cruze with 2-inch stretched wheelbase and an upgraded interior. The full-size front drive Buick Lucerne is unlikely to be replaced.

New subcompact based on Opel architecture. The chassis is more sporty and dynamic than the upcoming Chevy Spark, which is based on the older Korean GM-Daewoo hardware.

Expansion of new fuel-efficient turbocharged four- and six-cylinder engines.

Performance cars aren't dead yet. The next-generation C7 Corvette could get a twin-turbo, direct-injected V6 with close to 400 hp.