In the process of putting together my guide to the Queensland election, I had to consider how to handle the potential vote for One Nation, who have polled as highly as 23% earlier this year and were sitting on 15% in the most recent poll. Normally I assess a seat’s vulnerability based on its margin, but a new party polling 15% is likely to upset the apple-cart, threatening seats which look very safe on paper.

Tasmania is currently undergoing a redistribution of its federal boundaries – the second of six federal redistributions due during this parliamentary term. The boundaries will also apply to Tasmanian state lower house elections, but probably not until the 2022 state election.

I’ve made a number of updates to the data repository in preparation for the next round of state elections.

I’ve added to the data from the 2017 WA state election. Originally I had a limited dataset for the Legislative Council election, without below-the-line vote breakdowns by polling place, and without a seat-by-seat breakdown of the special vote for the upper house. This gap has now been filled.

In addition to the eleven councils which have already been profiled, I’ve now added four more guides. These are the four remaining councils with populations of over 100,000. Each of them is facing the prospect of council amalgamation, but will still hold an election in September.

Following on from last month’s Western Australian state election, I’ve finished compiling data from that election and added it to the data repository for your use. The dataset includes polling place-level and seat-level data for the lower house and something similar for the upper house. There’s also complete candidate lists for both houses and a full list of polling places with addresses and lat/long information.

8:00pm – Apparently we won’t get a Liberal vs Independent preference count in either Manly or North Shore tonight – so while we will know more once more primary votes will be counted, we won’t have a definitive answer as to who will win.