Free Agent Market Rumors

The Nationals made Ian Desmond a seven-year, $107MM extension offer last year, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports, though that also included contract deferrals that would have reduced its true value. Negotiations are expected to pick back up in the months to come, per Kilgore, and that offer will presumably be the starting point. Desmond, who put up another strong year and is now one year away from the open market, is one key piece of the team’s increasingly pressing long-term strategic questions.

Spencer also spoke with the Miami brass about Giancarlo Stanton, and discusses the team’s reasoning for trying to build a winner around him now, even if an extension cannot ultimately be worked out. “We’re trying to get away from that, that we have to trade everybody because they get expensive,” Hill said. “Enough of that. We want to win. We want to keep as many of our pieces as we can.”

Of course, the flashier chip for the Phils is lefty Cole Hamels. As Salisbury reports, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says “the free agent market will kind of dictate where this thing goes,” referring to the possibility of striking a deal. “[A]t some point the dominores will start to fall and then we’ll see where it takes us,” said Amaro, who notes that there is no need to deal Hamels since he “traverses the timeline” of contention that the club has in mind.

Hamels would prefer to be dealt, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale provides additional teams to which Hamels cannot decline a trade (on top of the previously-reported Cubs): the Yankees and Rangers are the two A.L. clubs, with the Dodgers, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, and Padres among the National League teams.

Braves president of baseball operations John Hart says the sides will “need to get creative” to work out a deal to keep Kris Medlen, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. While the team has every hope of keeping the righty, his second Tommy John procedure and $5.8MM projected arb price tag do not make for a straightforward situation given the team’s tight payroll. Sherman suggests that a significantly lower guarantee, combined with incentives and a 2016 option, could be palatable for both sides. It seems that Medlen would be able to do better, however, were he to force the Braves’ hand: he would either be tendered a contract, or hit the open market with plenty of suitors given his upside.

The free agent market for right-handed relievers features a number of pitchers who succeeded in major league bullpens last year. The selection for teams in search of left-handed relievers isn't quite as good. Here are the free agent lefties (closers excluded) that teams like the Yankees and Phillies will be considering as they look for relief help this winter:

Pedro Feliciano has led the National League in appearances for three consecutive seasons. He posted a 3.30 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 last year and should have his share of suitors. Hisanori Takahashi posted a 3.61 ERA in 122 innings as a swingman for the Mets with 8.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. He could re-sign in New York, but that seems unlikely.

Joe Beimel and Ron Mahay don't get as many grounders or strikeouts against left-handed hitters, but they do limit walks well. Taylor Tankersley, a new addition to the free agent pool, has succeeded against lefties throughout his career.

Summary

Downs, Rhodes, Takahashi and Feliciano are four capable left-handers for teams to pursue. Plenty of lefty specialists will remain for teams looking to fill out their bullpens with proven relievers who can retire tough left-handed bats.

The Tigers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Twins are some of the many teams that will likely consider free agent right-handers for their respective bullpens. Here are the names on the market this winter (non-closers only):

The Type As

If they turn down arbitration, Grant Balfour, Jason Frasor, Matt Guerrier and Dan Wheeler will each cost a draft pick to sign. Keep in mind that the budget conscious Rays won’t necessarily offer arbitration to Balfour and Wheeler. The Blue Jays will likely offer Frasor arbitration.

The market for right-handed relievers features a ton of strikeout machines and a number of relievers with closing experience. There are also some lesser arms out there, but overall it's a good crop of relievers, especially if you think Benoit, Putz and Uehara can stay healthy.

He may have taken the loss in two World Series games, but Cliff Lee is still the marquee name among all free agent starting pitchers. The 32-year-old has a 2.98 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 0.61 HR/9 in 667.3 regular season innings since 2008. He tossed 248 innings this year including the playoffs despite not making his first start until April 30th. Lee is eligible for free agency for the first time in his career and will finally get to settle down with one team. For more on his market, check out Mike Axisa's October 4th post.

Strong, Abbreviated Seasons

As usual, Andy Pettitte's options appear to be retirement or a return to the Yankees. That leaves Jorge de la Rosa as the second-best lefty available and perhaps the second-best starter overall since the Dodgers locked up Ted Lilly. As a Type A free agent, De La Rosa will cost a draft pick along with his contract. De La Rosa, 30 in April, missed ten weeks this season with a torn tendon in his finger. He throws hard, strikes out plenty, gets groundballs, and walks too many.

Three Semi-Interesting Names

If you dig a bit you'll find Hisanori Takahashi, Chris Capuano, and Bruce Chen as a trio of lefties capable of starting. All three had decent peripherals as starters this year, though only Chen topped 100 innings in the role.

Many teams in the starting pitching hunt just won't have the cash to seriously bid for Lee. De La Rosa will get plenty of action, but there aren't many other free agent lefties you'd plug into a rotation.

The free agent market for right-handed starters features an array of mediocrity. Let's break it down.

The Best Available

Five healthy right-handed starters jump out from this year's free agent class: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Hiroki Kuroda. Arroyo is expected to be retained by the Reds, however. All five pitched 195+ innings, with Pavano actually tallying 227 including the playoffs. Pavano also leads free agent righties in innings per start by a wide margin at 6.91. As a Type A free agent, he'll likely carry the added cost of a draft pick.

Out of this group no one posted an ERA above Westbrook's 4.22, but Baseball Prospectus' cool SIERA stat suggests no one deserved one below 4.00 except Kuroda. Aside from Arroyo, they're all groundballers. Kuroda is the only thing close to a strikeout pitcher here, and his control and groundball rate were strong too. Though he turns 36 in February, Kuroda is my pick from this group. They're all capable innings eaters, though.

Teams willing to spend $8MM+ per year on one of these guys should look at Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma. He may require a $16MM posting fee plus a contract, but he's only 30 and had pretty good numbers in Japan this year.

Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper sat out the 2010 season; perhaps they could still help at the back-end of an NL rotation. Koji Uehara spent the year as a reliever but would be an interesting starting candidate if he could stay healthy.

With so many quality hitters available to fill designated hitter jobs these days, it's embarrassing for a club to get subpar production out of the spot. Demand might be high too, though – of the 14 American League teams, only the Indians are locked into a player they must use at DH. Let's examine the free agent market.

Already Full-Time DHs

David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero, and Hideki Matsui each played at least 119 games at designated hitter this year, and won't be looking to transition back to regular field work. The Red Sox could pick up Ortiz's $12.5MM option after a bounceback season. Vlad's $9MM option with the Rangers is mutual, but expect the two sides to try to hammer something out after the World Series. Matsui does not have an option. The Angels may have to let him go if they'd prefer to move Bobby Abreu or Juan Rivera to DH.

Johnny Damon played 36 games in the outfield this year and 97 at DH. With his slugging percentage down to .401 this year, he may be a tough sell for Scott Boras as a designated hitter.

Jim Thome picked up just 340 plate appearances this year, but had a big impact with a .283/.412/.627 line and 25 homers. He's just 11 home runs shy of 600, and he'd like to return to the Twins. The Twins also must decide on Jason Kubel's $5.25MM option.

Could Occupy Full-Time DH Roles

Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, and Aubrey Huff spent much or all of their seasons in the National League. Ramirez, whose .409 OBP was second only to Thome among free agents, seems a lock to seek a full-time DH job. Berkman could still be a first base option. Huff, the Giants first baseman, didn't DH at all this year but has plenty of experience in the role from his time with the Orioles and Rays. Only Huff is coming off a strong contract year, but any of these three will help on offense.

Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are a couple of free agents who prefer to play defense, so we won't consider them here.

Jack Cust had a robust .395 OBP this year for the A's, but they could choose to go in a different direction. He was non-tendered and then re-signed last winter, but was coming off a worse year. The Rays have a couple of non-tender candidates in Willy Aybar and Dan Johnson.

Summary

American League teams such as the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles could stay in-house at DH, but there are plenty of vacancies. If Ortiz, Guerrero, and Thome are re-signed early, Manny, Berkman, and Matsui will become the best available.

The Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals, and Giants may be in the market for a right fielder this winter. Let's examine the free agent options.

The Big Name

Though his agent Scott Boras keeps talking about center field, Jayson Werth has mainly played right in the Majors. Werth, 31, is the marquee right-handed bat on the free agent market and plays strong defense as well. In the opinion of CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury, "it’s clear that the starting price will be something in the range of the seven-year, $120 million deal that Boras client Matt Holliday received from St. Louis last winter." Werth will also cost a draft pick if a team other than the Phillies signs him. The Tigers, Angels, and Nationals could be contenders for his services, and despite full outfields most expect the Red Sox and Yankees to check in.

Solid Regulars

Magglio Ordonez and Brad Hawpe might be solid regulars next year, but there are concerns. Ordonez, 37 in January, is represented by Boras and was limited to 84 games this year due to ankle surgery. Will he take one year and a sizeable pay cut despite a solid offensive performance? Hawpe, 31, slipped to .245/.338/.419 and was cut by the Rockies in August. If UZR is any indication, he's better suited for a DH role.

Jason Kubel was pressed into right field duty this year; like Hawpe, he's better off at DH. Kubel's off-year still looks pretty good compared to other free agents, but the Twins may pick up his option at a $4.9MM net price. Xavier Nady played right field fairly regularly in 2008, but may not have the arm for an everyday gig after a second Tommy John procedure in July of '09.

The Royals, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, and Padres may be looking for center field help for 2011, but the free agent market is ugly and there are no interesting non-tender candidates. Let's take a look.

Could The Big Names Switch Positions?

Scott Boras is prone to exaggeration, but he touted Jayson Werth's ability to play center field in a September conversation with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Werth played 171 innings in center this year, 62.3 in '09, and 233.3 in '08. It's smart for Boras to position Werth as a center field possibility, given the market.

Carl Crawford has the speed for center but seems unlikely to make the move. He hasn't played 100+ innings in center field since '04.

Probably Not Available

Though Coco Crisp played only 75 games this year for the Athletics, his contract is looking decent because of his performance and the $5.75MM club option for 2011. Though Rajai Davis can play center too, the A's seem very likely to keep Crisp. Crisp is the only free agent who played 600+ innings in center this year. Only Jim Edmonds, who probably won't play center field next year, matched Crisp's offensive production.

Capable Of Playing Center Field

With Edmonds talking about a backup first base role for next year if anything, only Rick Ankiel and Melky Cabrera remain as free agents who logged 300+ center field innings in 2010. Both struggled offensively, though Cabrera was decent in '09.

Tony Gwynn could join the free agent ranks if the Padres non-tender him. He didn't do much with the bat but the speedy 28-year-old did play 701.3 innings in center this year. Non-tender candidates Scott Hairston and Reggie Willits can handle center on a part-time basis.

Corey Patterson has a case for a big league contract this winter. He hit .269/.315/.406 in 340 plate appearances for the Orioles, which would be acceptable for a part-time center fielder. Patterson hasn't played the position in the Majors much in recent years, though he did tally 67 minor league games in '09.

Left field is traditionally a power position, yet Pat Burrell is the only free agent who hit 20 home runs in 2010. The Rays, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants may be looking for help at the position. Let's break down the free agents.

The Big Name

Carl Crawford's name will be all over this website for the next several months. Here's our stock watch post on him. Crawford is so good that teams I did not name above, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, are expected to at least kick the tires.

Solid Regulars

Burrell put himself back into the "solid regular" conversation by hitting .266/.364/.509 with 18 home runs in 341 plate appearances after signing with the Giants. There could be one other left field 20 home run bat available if the Twins choose Jason Kubel's $350K buyout over his $5.25MM club option, but I think they'll pick up the option.

Aside from Crawford, Jonny Gomes and Scott Podsednik were the only other free agents to log at least 1,000 innings in left field this year. Gomes, who has a $1.75MM club option with a $200K buyout, is a decent source of power. Podsednik's game is all about speed; he has the ability to void the Dodgers' $2MM option.

Looking For DH Jobs

Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon tallied fewer than 600 left field innings between them, and both figure to seek designated hitter work in 2011.

For teams that don't have $100MM for Crawford, the free agent market for left fielders is weak. Burrell, Gomes, and Podsednik may find regular left field work, while Manny and Damon may still dabble at the position.

The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Marlins, Cardinals, and Giants may be looking for third base help this winter. Here's a look at the hot corner free agent market.

The Best Choice By Far

By signing a one-year deal last offseason, Adrian Beltre positioned himself for another big contract. He hit .321/.365/.553 with his usual stellar defense, so don't be surprised if Scott Boras seeks more than the five years and $64MM Beltre received in 2004. On top of the contract, signing Beltre will require giving up a draft pick. The Red Sox hope to re-sign him, but don't expect a discount.

May Not Hit The Open Market

Even coming off a bad year, Aramis Ramirez would be an appealing free agent. However, the Cubs' third baseman is expected to exercise his $14.6MM player option for 2011. The Tigers may not pick up Jhonny Peralta's $7MM option, but they expect to retain him and play him at shortstop.

It's Beltre or bust this year if you're looking to sign a free agent third baseman. Whoever you'd rank behind Beltre, it's a distant second. Teams that find him too expensive may turn to the trade market.