Marney Cox, San Diego Association of Governments

Although population growth does not equal economic growth, at times it can be an indicator of prosperity trends. California and San Diego at one time were strong magnets of economic opportunity and attracted more people into the state and county than moved out, referred to as net domestic migration. Over the past two decades California is 4 million short on this exchange with other states and San Diego has contributed its proportional share to the net exodus. Both are still growing but not because our relative economic opportunities are more appealing - they’re not - and some people have voted with their feet.

Yes
41% (16)

No
59% (23)

Phil Blair, Manpower

San Diego County’s economic growth should not be based merely on population growth. Population growth is a false crutch that does not have a core underpinning. Our economy will thrive on innovative San Diego companies, hiring current talented San Diegans, new startups and outside companies wanting to move into the San Diego region. We need to be educating and training San Diegans, and the natural population growth from their offspring that want to stay in San Diego, for the skills needed for jobs currently open here in San Diego, and for the jobs of the future that this talented workforce will attract. We don’t need to depend on outsiders moving into San Diego; we need to depend on ourselves.

Kelly Cunningham, National University System

It is not so much slow growth, but the type of population growth that is the issue. We are losing a rising generation of workers in their 30s and 40s just entering more productive phases of their careers. Along with losing their skill sets, they take considerable spending power as well as their children to establish families and homes elsewhere. We are left with an aging workforce that will eventually exit the labor market leaving a significant skill gap. We are also increasing the population of un- or less-skilled workers unable to afford living in ever more expensive San Diego.

Gina Champion-Cain, American International Investments

The county's many positive attributes are far more powerful than the manageable population variances we have seen. San Diego's weather, military complex, biotech, telecom, academic and research hubs all contribute to the base strongly enough to ensure long-term economic stability. The region's challenge is to find an equilibrium between lower wage tourism/service sector jobs, which are here to stay, and more highly compensated sectors, of which many are flight risks. A symbiotic balance between sectors, bolstered by a strong "middle" will ensure long term economic health.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

San Diego’s economy is heavily impacted by outside forces, e.g., defense spending and tourism. Whether San Diego’s population is growing or not, those forces will continue to positively impact the local economy. Potential problems of slow population growth are not enough workers in some industries and reduced consumer spending, which would affect retailers, restaurants, and others. Positives would be a stronger labor market for workers (which could lead to rising wages and incomes), reduced pressure on the housing market, and less demand for government services such as education. Finally, as the local economy recovers, some of the internal migration will reverse, which would help mitigate any problems.

James Hamilton, University of California San Diego

No. California and San Diego were hit harder than the rest of the country by the recession, and that may be one factor that caused some people to move out. But San Diego house prices are up almost 20 percent over the last year, one of the sharpest increases in the nation. Our unemployment rate fell by 1.5 percentage points over the last year, compared with only a 0.8 percentage point drop for the U.S. as a whole. I expect the San Diego job market to continue to improve over the next year, and that should make a big difference for the local economy.

Jamie Moraga, intelliSolutions

Population growth ebbs and flows. It may be slower, but it isn’t a sharp decline. San Diego isn’t alone in seeing slower population growth – it’s also being seen in the state and country. Even though we don’t live in a business-friendly state, and San Diego has high housing prices and taxes in comparison to other cities, we flourish in spite of those obstacles. San Diego has incredible weather and is a tourism destination. We have several world-class educational institutions, a robust biotech industry, and a solid, significant military/defense economy. According to the fifth annual San Diego Military Advisory Council economic impact study, San Diego stands to hold an edge in competing for a share of the shrinking defense budget over the next several years. The national strategy calling for a shift to the Pacific will favor San Diego. People will come and go in San Diego – we are somewhat of a transient city due to our military, educational institutions, and tech/biotech industries, but it comes down to our weather that attracts and helps keep people here. As I write this, it’s sunny, mid-80s, and it’s January. I know I’m not leaving town.

Gary London, The London Group Realty Advisors

The San Diego Association of Governments is projecting a gain of 775,000 from 2010 to 2030. It is owed to two factors, natural increase (births vs. deaths) and in-migration. Since 2000 the region has actually raised more people from natural increase (60+ percent) than growth through in-migration. This is growth which is a demographic certainty. In-migration, however, is directly a function of job growth and the prospects for our regional economy. The region’s health is impacted by our economic competitiveness. If we guide our economic ship in the right direction – encourage economic growth, improve our schools, limit obstacles and remain diversified and on the cutting edge of the “new economy”, build structures for them and adequately house their people - we will be fine. That’s admittedly a tall but achievable order for this region.

Jim Plante, Pathway Genomics

Our economic health is in danger largely due to state laws and regulations that have destroyed or disincentivized the creation of opportunity. Economic and population growth are a byproduct of opportunity, but the fact is that California has the highest Sales, gas, personal income, and corporate income tax in the nation. On top of that, San Diego is the second least affordable housing market in the country and our businesses are choked with over-regulation and taxes. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Voters and the policymakers we have elected have systematically created this opportunity-killing environment over many decades. Let’s just hope we don’t figure out a way to regulate and tax our nice weather. It’s all we may have left someday.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

We have much wealth here which stabilizes the economy. The question should be “is slow population growth a function of the economic environment in San Diego?” And to this the answer is “Yes.” Relatively high housing costs, state income taxes, regulations and an anti-development attitude towards more density, make it hard for employers and young folks. We don’t need affordable housing subsidies but rather more density and a tolerance for smaller units. The referenced article (Jan. 12 by UT columnist Dan McSwain) mentioned population losses tanking Russia’s economy, but again it is the poorly run economy that drove out the population, not the other way around.

Rick Sanborn, Seacoast Commerce Bank

While San Diego has had negative population growth of late, this should not create long-term economic danger. Aside from being the second largest populous city in California, and the eighth largest in the country, San Diego has a very diverse population and business base that should make it difficult for a populous shift substantial enough to create any long-term economic worry. From the sunshine and the beaches, to the tourism industry, business base and government employment base, there are compelling incentives to move and live here. Lets hope Sacramento (or our own City Council) doesn’t end up changing that incentive.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University

It could be, although currently the region’s population is still growing by 24,000 per year or at a moderate 0.9 percent pace. Last year, San Diego saw a net outflow of 12,000 people to other areas in California and in the rest of the U.S., but that was offset by a 16,000 increase from foreign residents. Meanwhile, births exceeded deaths by about 24,000. San Diego’s principal challenge is to create a business climate conducive to more jobs, an educational system to provide the necessary skills, and building policies to facilitate more affordable housing. The people will come.

John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports

Slow population growth is a result of slow economic growth, not the cause. People move to where there are jobs. Jobs are created by companies. Companies are created and grow where there are well educated labor pools, great living conditions, good education, available housing, and sound government management. We cannot rely only on military, tourism and people retiring to San Diego for a healthy growing community. People are attracted to vibrant communities where there is opportunity to advance and prosper in their careers, for healthy living, for the arts, athletics and opportunity for their family.

Dan Seiver, Reilly Financial Advisors

Rapid population growth would be much more of a hazard. Our infrastructure and environment are already under pressure, and most San Diegans don't want to be paved-over, grid-locked, smog-choked Angelenos. A rapid population decline, like Detroit's, would be an economic disaster, but our population is still growing, and our birth rate will probably stabilize and even rise a bit in coming years. Of more concern is outmigration of skilled adults, which is not a new trend. Affordable housing would certainly help, and improvements in the quality of life, including schools and infrastructure, would also help make San Diego more attractive.

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

San Diego’s slow economic growth is the cause of the slow population growth, not a result of it. For the population to grow, businesses must be able to create enough good-paying jobs for San Diego to attract and retain a talented workforce. Unfortunately, they are hampered by costly regulations and high taxes that put them at a competitive disadvantage to businesses in other locales. This lack of enough good-paying jobs, combined with the high cost of living here, means many residents have found it necessary to relocate in order to be able to adequately feed, clothe and house themselves and their families.