Thursday, October 9, 2014

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL. We're officially past the 1/3 mark, and it's been quite a ride thus far. Some studs have already fallen and continue to fall, but with each star going down, the opportunity arises for a new star to rise.

Seedog isn't available, so you're stuck with me this week. I'll try to make it worth your while. And with that, here are my Week 6 Sleepers, Studs & Duds..

Doot

Sleepers:

QB E. Manning: I'm generally not big on Eli; I think he's been in the right place at the right time for much of his career, and his rings are a product of solid teams getting hot at the right time. With that said, one of the golden rules of fantasy football is to never be a homer. The same also can apply to being an anti-homer. If the matchup and circumstances makes for a solid play for a player you don't necessarily like, bite the bullet and go with it.
Jennings is doubtful, Beckham is in and showed signs of talent in his debut last week, and this game looks to be a potential shootout. Eli's got the targets: Cruz, Randle, Beckham, Donnell, and I think that' makes for a potential big day for the lesser of the two Mannings.
Backup Plan: M. Ryan, N. Foles

RB B. Oliver: I don't know if he's considered a sleeper (I guess with his price he is), but Oliver CRUSHED an allegedly top defense vs the run in the Jets, and this week he has a favorable matchup against the Raiders. He does come with a caveat though: I'd play him in 50/50 as I'm pretty sure he'll be worth his cost, but he will likely be in damn near a majority of GPP leagues, so he might not be a great play there (unless you're targeting a lot of different, true "sleepers" in a low % of lineups.) He's a solid play here, and is VERY valuable for the price.
Backup Plan: A. Williams, B. Sankey

WR G. Tate: Megatron broke a wheel and looks to be in the shop for awhile, which means Golden Tate becomes a veeeeery good play in both 50/50s and GPPs (although he will be on a decent % of GPP teams).
Backup Plan: J. Maclin, M. Sanu

TE J. Witten: Wait, you're probably thinking, wtf am I thinking? Yes Dallas is playing Seattle, in Seattle, and Yes Witten has yet to score a TD this year. But, did you know, Seattle has the worst defense in the league vs. TEs? Tis true. So as a true sleeper, I think Witten could be a nice sneaky play this week. We shall see...
Backup Plan: O. Daniels

DEF Tenn: Jacksonville is pretty bad, and I think they can make any defense look good. Hence, they're a decent play here.
Backup Plan: Denver

Studs:

QB P. Manning: Things will be all sorts of bass ackwards at the Meadowlands on Sunday as the Jets remain grounded trying go with a ground attack while the Broncos take the air with a deadly aerial assault, George Carlin style!. And leading the charge will be the legendary Peyton Manning. I expect Peyton to go nucking futs this week with 3-4 TDs and easily over 300 yards (possibly in the first half, DOH!) The downside to this, is he might be benched by the 4th quarter. If you're ever going to overpay for a QB, this is the week to do it.
Backup Plan: M. Ryan

RB M. Forte: Not only is a top 5 weekly stud regardless who he's playing, this week he's going against a defense who's been pretty bad against the run. He is almost as sure a bet as Peyton this week, me thinks.
Backup Plan: M. Lynch, L. Bell

WR Jordy Nelson: I saw a funny shirt worn by a hot blonde Packers fan while on my trip up to Lambeau a few weeks ago. "I love it when Jordy goes deep". Yep, folks...it's good to be Jordy. Aaron to Jordy has become one of the deadliest combos over the last half a decade, and I expect this trend to continue versus a mediocre Dolphins secondary.
Backup Plan: Anyone on Denver

TE S. Gronkowski: The Gronk is from the Buffalo area, and always seems to do well there. With Graham on bye, I think Gronk is the #1 TE play this week.
Backup Plan: J. Thomas

DEF San Diego: Oakland is pretty bad, and San Diego has been really damn good. If you're going to pay for a Defense, this is who you pay for.

Duds:

QB C. Newton: Cinny's gotta be pissed after getting whooped in New England last week, and I think they've got a big chip on their shoulder trying to prove that this year they're for real. That could spell bad news for Cam. Sooooo many better options out there; I'm staying away.

RB D. Murray: I'm making this call with extreme hesitance, as I think Murray is a decent play every week. I do think that Dallas will have to take to the air though, which means that Murray may be limited. Or. I could totally be proven wrong. Either way, at his price, I think it's too much of a risk. Proceed with caution.

WR M. Crabtree: I think he's fighting an injury, although SF hasnt officially said as such. I'm gonna stay away from him for now.

TE L. Green: Also nursing an injury, and with Gates getting the looks and catches week after week, Green hasnt emerged as many expected he would. Even though they're playing Oakland, I think he's too much of a reach.

DEF Chicago: Chi has a history of strong defensive play, and might be in many's subconscious as a good-by-default safe pick. Dont trust your gut here. Although Atlanta's been hit or miss, they're at home, and simply put, Chi isnt that great defensively. You can do better. A lot better.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

We nailed a good number of picks last week. Let's continue the trend with our SS&Ds for Week 5.

Good luck!- Seedog & doot

doot

Sleepers:

QB Glennon: He's uber cheap and a decent play if you want to punt QB or a good second pick in a two QB league. Plus, you can match him up with L. Murphy or V. Jackson for a tasty tandem in DDPs.

Backup Plan: K. Orton (in for Manuel)

RB R. Jennings: Is a sleeper a sleeper if everyone knows he's a sleeper? Probably not, but probable Top 5 scoring at the position at a mid-tier price makes him a sleeper IMHO. I predict he'll probably be in 20% (give or take 5%) in GPP leagues, but he is a solid option in 50/50s.

I'm also going to throw in L. McCoy. Yes he's expensive, and yes with a swiss cheese O-line in Phi he has severely underperformed, but he's a cocky SOB (in a good way) so I'm guessing he's not taking this lack of success lightly; he will likely be playing with a Chip on his shoulder, and I'm thinking he'll be under-owned in DPPs.

Backup Plan: D. Reaves, B. Sankey

WR A. Hawkins: Who? Yeah, that's what I thought until I looked at the numbers. He is #1 in targets with a Browns team playing a very mediocre Tenn. team. He is very cheap and a solid play in GPPs.

Backup Plan: B. Quick, A. Hurns, Malc. Floyd, L. Murphy

TE C. Harbor: You may not know who he is, but Bortles does. Last week he was 8/8 in Targets/Receptions last week for 69 yards. A Tight End can be a rookie QB's best friend, so if you're not going with Graham, throw this kid a bone, and you might have a friend for life (or at least this season, or this week..)

Backup Plan: H. Miller

DEF Green Bay: Let me give you something to Ponder...he's gonna need a bigger boat at Lambeau tonight, as heavy rains are expected. I predict GB to stuff the box and force Ponder to throw, which could lead to defensive points for a very cheap GB.

Backup Plan: Car., Clev.

Studs:

QB D. Brees: He's dat. Brees at home is scary, add to it TB's 28th ranking in yards allowed per game in the air, and you're onto a sure thing big thing.

Backup Plan: A. Luck, P. Rivers

RB L. Bell: Again, it's all about the matchups. Jacksonville is ranked 25th in yards given up on runs. Add to it the fact that Pitt is favored by 7 (even away), and Pitt. will be likely playing ahead and may run the ball heavily to run down the clock, even better for Bell.

Backup Plan: D. Murray

WR A. Jeffrey: Marshall is still a bit gimpy, and Carolina's defense arent as good as last year. This could be a sneaky stud pick, considering all the other stud options at WR this week.

Backup Plan: A. Brown, J. Jones, J. Nelson, K. Allen

TE J. Graham: He's an elite receiver with a TE tag with an elite QB throwing to him in a home dome. He's expensive, but damn near always worth the price.

Backup Plan: J. Thomas

Duds:

QB K. Cousins: Even though he's playing at home, he is still playing Seattle, and I think they'll keep him and Washington in check.

RB D. Brown: He burned a lot of people last week (including us, grumble grumble), and he plays the league's best Defense against the run. Stay away, far far away...

WR B. Marshall, C. Johnson: They're both nursing injuries, and considering their cost, they're just too risky for me to consider. But, yes there's a but, if you check on Sunday morning and know they're definitely active, they could be a very high risk, costly, high reward pick in DPPs. Even with that slight chance, I'm not buying.

TE N. Paul: This is a bit of a reach, as I think most decent TEs will have decent games, so I'm going with him as a bust for the week. Add to it that J. Reed is back in practice, they may start to share time.

DEF New England: Ahhh, it's fun to poop on the Patriots.

Seedog

Sleepers:

Wilson is a sneaky play I like this week vs. the Skins, he should give you some points and have a solid game this week.

Eli should be a nice play in a game that may have a lot of points, and a lot of passing, I like him this week.

Khiry Robinson is my sleeper RB of the week, since they are playing RB roulette in New Orleans, I think this week is his turn.

Zac Stacy has been quiet, I think he has a big day against the Eagles this week.

VJax should put up some solid garbage time numbers this week, nice play this week.

Quick is a nice start this week, like him as my sleeper WR this week, I project a solid day from him.

Heath Miller is back, has put together a few good weeks, and I see him keeping it going this week vs. the Jags.

Studs:

Payton-Drew-Arod: All are a must start. Clear cut top 3, you can put them in any order, all a solid play this week.

Andrew
Luck: He is knocking on the door, he is making the stud cut just about
every week, start him with no worries vs. the Ravens.

Gio: My top play of the day, the Pats are in trouble, Gio has a big day.

Rashad Jennings: Big day for him, ATL can’t stop anyone, big day for him and the Gmen.

A
Brown/Edelman are PPR Gold, must starts in a PPR format unless they are
banged up. These 2 are on a roll, it isn’t stopping this week.

J Jones is going to be big this week, lots of points in this game. Start him with confidence.

Graham/Gronk: They play, they are in your lineup, must starts that play like a top WR.

Bennett will have another solid day for the Bears. With the Bears WR’s banged up, it means another big day for him.

Duds:

Romo might take a step back this week, he will play ok this week, just see a lot of rushing in this game against HOU.

Foles may have another tuff start this
week, STL defense will give him some trouble, I personally will stay
away from him this week.

Sproles, off day for Foles will mean an off day for Sproles, sorry PHI, stay in away from the Eagles this week.

Spiller/FJax will have a long day vs. the Lions front, not a fan of either Bills RB this week.

DJax will have a quiet day, Seattle’s D will keep the Skins off the score board.

Crabtree is interesting, I just don’t like him this week, I see the Chiefs giving him trouble.

Ertz is in for a long day also, see a theme, stay away from the Eagles this week.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Week 4 Sleepers Studs n Duds

Sorry about the lapse last week. Doot was returning from Lambeau Field forming his very own trail of tears behind him and Seedog was...somewhere being a good father and hubby to his birthday wife...Happy Birthday Kim!

Moving forward, we'll have these babies out to you on Wed or Thursday to help you out (or give you someone to blame.)

So without further adieu, I bring to you the Jersey Dude's Sleepers, Studs n Duds for Week 4. Good luck!

Seedog

Sleepers:

Fitzpatrick could have a good day vs the Bills, Fitz is a nice sneaky start this week, call it a hunch.

Asiata gets to shred the Falcons D this week, he should have a nice start this week.

Blount, not sure why I like him this week, TB D is good, but he might have a chip on his shoulder going up against his old team.

Malcom Floyd Is another nice bye week start, him and Philip Rivers are always on the same page.

Kelce is the passing option in KC, plus they will be playing from behind, they may get steam rolled by the Pats.

Studs:

Brees has a tasty matchup in Dallas, could be a Texas shootout, and I see the Saints showing up armed and dangerous with Bees.

Cousins should keep rolling after last week, plus he gets the Giants D, enough said.

Forte is a stud, as long as he stays healthy plug him in every week.

Murray best RB this season, if he avoids the injury bug, could have a career year, also see Romo blurb.

A Brown most consistent WR to date, he will put numbers up every game, look at his last 14 games going back to last season.

Edelman, meet the new Welker in New England, PPR gold, plug him in, guaranteed points.

Olsen is the forgotten TE, if your not on Jimmy or Gronk, this NJ native should be your guy.

Gronk is Brady's WR2, if he is healthy, play him every week, plus the Pats got KC.

Duds:

Arod and Coach seem to not be on the same page, plus they got a rough division matchup against the Bears.

Romo is off to a slow start, coming back from back from his surgery, plus with way they are running the ball, I see another mediocre week for Tony.

Gerhart was way over drafted, and JAX stinks, MJD was smart to run away.

Bush will have some tuff sledding against the Jets D this week, he may snag a few grabs, but you don't get much YAC out of the backfield against the Jets.

Wheaton faces a tuff TB D, not sure why but I see boring one with some running, and lots of A. Brown.

Cecil Shorts is in for a slow day, think Blake will be on all the young WR's on the team. Look at the Cecil and Blake connection to take some time.

Ertz is off to a great start this season, but he get the Niners D this week, think he may be quiet this week.

Allan is hit or miss, plus TEN D may give them some issues this week.

doot:

Sleepers:

QB Teddy Bridgewater – Playing against a high scoring but
mediocre defense Atlanta team, at home, could mean a big day for Bridgewater. I
wouldn’t bet the house on him, but he could surprise people and will likely be
a good value play for the $$ in Daily lineups. Backup plan: Romo

WR Cecil Shorts – Yes
it’s Bortles's first game, but Jacksonville will likely be playing from behind
early in the game, which means they’ll probably take to the air, and Shorts
should be the #1 target. He’s a good GPP play here. Backup plan: Golden Tate

RB Donald Brown – With Matthews and Woodhead both out and a
favorable matchup vs Jax, I expect big things from Brown. Brown was actually a
sleeper pick for me in my year-long fantasy team too..he has always flown under
the radar, but now as the lead dog, I think his could make it ruff for opposing defenses.
Backup plan: Astiata

TE – Owen Daniels – Pitta’s out for the year, and Daniels
has always been a decent play in years past. The talent’s still there, and I
think the targets might warrant a look for him. At the very least he’s a good
punt option in GPPs. Backup plan: Niles Paul

DEF Oakland is awful, no doubt. And they’re awfully cheap.
Playing against a Dolphins team in a major state of turmoil (since the
offseason and spilling into the regular season. Heck, the coach wont even name
Tannehill the starter for the week.) Plus, both teams are travelling across the pond to play in England. I'm expecting more of a futbol score than a football score.

Studs:

QB/WR Stafford/Megatron – With a depleted secondary that was
of secondary talent when healthy, the Jets are prone to get lit up in the air
yet again this week. Their run defense is stellar, so the Lions will likely
abandon that early and take to the air. I don’t see anyone who can cover
Megatron, and that is bad news for my J-E-T-S…

RB DeMarco Murray – expect to see him continue to pound the
ground and rack up at least 100 yards, a TD, with another 25 yards receiving
and 3-6 receptions against a very mediocre NO defense.

TE Jimmy Graham – he is expensive, no doubt, but I’m not
sold on Dallas’s defense not being as bad as we expected at the start of the
year. Expect a high scoring game here, and expect Graham to be a big part of it.

Def – Carolina – Their defense is gooooood, really good, and
should be a top choice this week if you want to pay for them. Also consider San
Diego.

Duds:

QB Brady – he’s just not clicking with his offense now, and
I’ve got a hunch Arrowhead will get the most of him and limit his productivity.
We shall see. I could be totally wrong, but I’m going with my gut here (and it’s
a big gut to go with..)

WR Brandon Marshall – he was held out of practice again
today, Thursday, and didn’t look to be himself at all last week vs a porous
Jets secondary. I’m staying away…if he has a good game, good for him, and good
for anyone with enough balls to play him. It wont be me..

RB Bush/Bell – as much as I poo-poo the Jets secondary,
their run defense is pretty kickass. Expect that trend to continue on Sunday

Note: As you can see, one man's trash is another man's treasure...and that's the beauty of fantasy sports. Let's see who nailed it and who got nailed..

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Well, Week 1 results left a lot of people scratching their heads. Sadly, NFL news left us scratching our heads even more, for all the wrong reasons.

Thankfully, our focus will be back ON the field tomorrow, with actual football, where physical abuse is encouraged and legal (usually).

So without further adieu, I bring you our Week 2 Sleepers Studs n Duds...

Seedog:

Studs:

Luck-my top playPeyton-he is good, if you can afford.McCoy-will shred the ColtsGio-PPR gold AJ Green- ATL secondary Jets like (meaning weak)D Thomas- he is good, play if u can affordA Johnson- Safe solid playM Floyd- 2 words Gmen DefenseGronk- he's healthy, and he's Brady's only option besides EdelmanOlsen- my top playSleepers:Brady- good valueGeno- should but up great 2nd half numbers playing from behindFoster- still has it, has pretty good matchupMcFadden- no MJD and cheapCJ2K- my top sleeper, love him in GBJ Hunter- like him a bunch this week.J Matthews- Chip Kelly, cheapK Rudolph- cheap solid play if you don't want to pay,Duds:Rivers- Seattle DEli- his football skills are gone,presumably buried with Jimmy Hoffa in the old Giants Stadium.R Bush- Scrappy CAR DR Jennings-see ELi, will be behind and chuckingK Allen-SEA DCrabtree - Still a little banged upDJax- not quite fitting in yet in WASJ Cameron- not feeling him against a decent Saints DL. Green-not only did he play like a bum last week, he was drafted too early, plus he also gets SEA D.Defense/ST Report:A few I like:HoustonTBArizona GB*Don't over pay for a K if the site makes you play one, find the cheapest serviceable option:R Bullock

M Lee – Shorts is doubtful, meaning Lee should get ample
looks on Sunday. He is still underpriced, and will likely be utilized often in
this week’s matchup vs. Washington. Pick him up while he’s still cheap.

Boykin – Rodgers likes to share the wealth. Although Jordy
and Cobb seem to get all the attention, Boykin might get some love this week at
Lambeau vs. a weak Jets secondary. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lands 50+
yards and a TD as the #3 receiver GB. He is high risk, high reward, but a damn
good punt WR pick this week with tons of up-side.

Jeremy Kerley – Sometimes I just have a hunch on someone.
With Geno likely playing from behind shortly after kickoff vs the Packers, I
suspect they’ll utilize the passing game early and often. As a solid slot receiver,
I’ve got an inkling that Kerley might have a big game. Tis just a hunch, but my
hunches seem to pan out more often then they should, so I’m going with it and
plugging him into a couple of my GPP lineups this week.

Terrence West – Tate is out, meaning West will be leading
the charge. NO let up 5 YPC last week vs Atlanta. That trend could continue
this week.

Studs:

A Rodgers - After an underwhelming start last week vs.
Seattle, Aaron Rodgers is underpriced this week. Add to it the Jets solid run
defense and JV Secondary and you’ve got a recipe for a big big game from
Rodgers.

Dalton – Atlanta gave up a ton of receiving yards last week
vs. NO, and I think the trend continues this week when they take on the Bengals.
Expect big numbers from Dalton this week.

SF Defense – Chicago has B Marshall and Jeffrey both
questionable, and lost two offensive linemen. This could lead to big points for
SF’s defense.

Duds:

P Rivers – Seattle’s defense is good. Damn good. I’m staying
away.

K. Allen – See above.

A. Gates – See above.

Well, in the words of the late great Mel Blanc, until next time....that's all folks! Good luck!

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Welcome to the JerseyDudes!

Each week (and during the week), we will be sharing our thoughts and opinions on all things sports (baseball, football, even some hockey!), in both season-long fantasy, DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports), and on our favorite teams.

JerseyDudes consists of two dudes, Seedog and doot, life-long friends from Glen Rock, N.J. More on us later...

There's a good shot the Lions offense will steam roll the Giants on MNF, which could mean a good fantasy day for Eli and Cruz.
If you're looking to save money, look no further than Hill, Stacy, Austin and Britt. The money you can save with a few of these guys should be more than enough to help you get that extra stud in your lineup.
Since I think Min will be playing from behind and Patterson is about a decade younger than Jennings, I think Patterson might be a good play, and you can plug in Rudolph if you don't want to pay for Graham.

Not only do I love Julio Jones this week, but he could be the #1 WR
this Season in Fantasy. Pay for him in weekly games now while his price
isn't too high.
Forte will be in BEAST mode. Pay for him; he is good.
Jimmy Graham HAS to be in your lineup; look to punt elsewhere this week and play him!
Oh, and if you can find a way to pay up for Brees, start him. In case you missed it: 1. He is good. B. He likes domes.

Houston's D is a little underrated and not being talked up like it has years back. With that said, it could be a long day for the 'skins..

Due to the fact that Mike Wallace will be a VIP guest on Revis Island, I think he's in for a long day and do not expect him to

Pick of the Week: Stacy/T. Austin

doot

Sleepers:

M. Lee - I suspect Philadelphia will roll today; with Shorts out and Jax prob playing from behind, making Lee a super-sleeper
Maclin, Ertz - with Philadelphia racking up the points, I think Maclin and Ertz will be targeted early and often, making them both solid and relatively cheap plays today. And if you go with Maclin and Ertz, might as well go with Foles as well.
Cooks - See below on New Orleans
Vereen - I'm calling him a sleepy stud. I'll call him a sleeper today, but I think after a few weeks he'll have elevated himself to Stud Status. Especially in PPR leagues, I suspect Vereen to have a big game vs the Fins.

Studs:

Everything New Orleans - Brees, Graham, and Cooks. Stills is questionable, which makes Graham even more valuable, and Cooks a good sneaky play this week.
Jones - As Seedog said, Jones will be a stud all year; I suspect this Atl/NO game will be a shootout, so I think Jones is fine for today and for the long run.

Duds:

I agree with Seedog that Wash may struggle this year, and Houston has a solid defense, so I'm thinking *the NFL team from Washington* may struggle today.
Eli & the G-men - I don't say this because A. I'm a Jets fan 2. I think Eli is overrated, I say this because it sounds like they've been really struggling in camp. They're having a hard time adapting to the new playbook, their O-line is questionable, Eli and Randle seem out of sync, Beckham is still out, and who's their TE? Ugg, with all that said, I think the Lions will keep 'em scrambling and will be putting up points, and I dont think the Giants offense is capable of countering. I'm staying away.

Pick of the Day: Jets Defense - now I'm going to contradict myself a bit here and say there's a remote chance that Carr will pick apart the Jets weak Secondary, but more likely than not Rex will be throwing the kitchen sink at the Raiders and Carr will be scrambling, out of sync, and lost. I think the Jets offense is good enough to keep the Raiders off the field, and they could score some tasty fantasy points from Sacks, perhaps an Int or two, and low scoring.

Good Luck Everyone!
May the balls bounce your way and our suggestions get you over the edge. Win your Head to Heads and cash in your Dailies!

Later this week we'll do our Monday Morning QB in Hindsight and analyze our picks to let you know where we excelled and where (and why) we failed.

Until then, bear with is while we get some order and consistency going.