Serbia GDP

Serbia: Economy accelerates in Q3

November 30, 2015

In Q3, the economy expanded 2.2% over the same quarter last year, according to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) on 30 November. The print was above the 2.0% increase initially reported and came above the 0.9% increase seen in the second quarter.

Private consumption in Q3 contracted 0.6% in annual terms, which was an improvement over the 1.3% drop seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, government consumption swung from a 2.8% contraction in Q2 to a 0.8% expansion in Q3, thus marking the best figure in three quarters. Growth in fixed investment accelerated from 8.7% in Q2 to 10.1% in Q3.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services accelerated from a 8.4% increase in Q2 to a 8.8% rise in Q3. Moreover, imports improved and grew 5.4% in Q3, which was up from the 2.0% increase seen in Q2. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector deteriorated from 2.6 percentage points in Q2 to 0.8 percentage points in Q3.

Compared to the previous period, GDP dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in Q3, which contrasted the 2.0% increase recorded in Q2.

The National Bank of Serbia expects the economy to expand 0.8% this year. For 2016, the Bank sees economic growth picking up to 1.8%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to record 0.3% growth in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

On 6 December, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has now been since April.
At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Bank judged its current monetary policy stance supportive of overall price stability, while also buttressing strong economic momentum.

According to a comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, economic growth moderated in the third quarter following two robust GDP prints in the first half of the year.

According to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, industrial production rebounded 3.2% over the same month last year in October, following the 1.2% decline logged in September.
The recovery was chiefly driven by a strong pick-up in manufacturing production, which hit a nine-month high in October.

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