Tuesday, June 14, 2011

From Russia, US Warships in the Black Sea to Syria, China and more!

Pretend that Russia is in the middle.Radiating out from the centre are Georgia, China, Syria, Ukraine, EU, the Black Sea and NATO.In no particular order, there just all connected to Russia and were going to touch on them all!

The US is claiming this is part of an exercise being conducted with the Ukraine.

Here is what is being said via RIA Novosti:

"While leaving aside the unsettled issue of a possible European missile shield architecture, Russia would like to know, in compliance with the Russia-NATO Lisbon summit decisions, what 'aggravation' the U.S. command meant by moving the basic strike unit of the regional missile defense grouping being formed by NATO in the region, from the Mediterranean to the east,"

The Foreign ministry said in a statement.

Monterrey was sent to European waters as part of the U.S. administration's phased adaptive approach to building the European segment of the global missile shield.

The program's first stage envisages the deployment of a group of U.S. warships in the Adriatic, Aegean and Mediterranean Seas to protect South Europe from possible missile strikes.

The U.S. says the warships can move to the Black Sea only in case of aggravation of the situation in the region.

"If this is an ordinary visit, then it is unclear why a warship with this type of armament was chosen to move to this quite sensitive region"

The role of the U.S. warship's missiles in the Sea Breeze 2011 anti-piracy exercises is also unclear

All statements quoted are from Russia's Foreign Ministry.

Recap!

The USS Monterrey is supposed to be in the Mediterranean. Not in the Black Sea.The warships can move to the Black Sea only in the case of aggravation of "the situation" in the region.Is "the region" a reference to the Black Sea or the Mediterranean?Some media outlets are connecting this to the western backed uprisings in Syria.

The piece linked above mentions the importance of an unnamed port in Syria for strategic access to the Mediterranean. I note they mention outside intervention, but bolster the official tale of the west "Syrian regime oppressive".While not connecting the dots, the outside intervention, resulting in the killing of 120 security services persons may directly result in "oppressive" measures being taken.

So this move could be interpreted as a threat regarding the Russian stance on Syria.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and U.S. administration will discuss “frozen conflicts” in South Caucasus and organisation policy in the region. On May 12, NATO Secretary General will deliver a statement titled “New Security Challenges, New NATO” in Washington. NATO priorities in Caucasus region as well as integration issues are on visit agenda"

At that time my mind jumped to Georgia. Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That would definitely fall into the "frozen conflict" file, for NATO and the US. Therefore the warship movement could be a prelude to something pertaining to that situation.

Getting back to the Ukraine.

As reported here: There is a bit of a kerfuffle going on between Ukraine and Russia over gas prices and pipelines. That in the end may result in Russia controlling Ukraine gas transport

"Now, at the height of the European summer, there are signs the gas wars may flare again - this time in a battle for control over Ukraine's gas pipelines. The country's pipeline network - along with the rest of its infrastructure - is in poor shape. Built in Soviet times, they require massive investment if they are to provide reliable transit of gas in the years to come.

China may have to pay $700 billion over 30 years for Russian gas under a long-term contract being negotiated by the countries, if the world's biggest energy user agrees to pay European prices, Sanford C. Bernstein said.

"Assuming European prices at the China border of $350 per thousand cubic meters, then this deal alone could be worth $700 billion over 30 years, contributing 2 percent to Russian GDP each year," . An accord is likely to be signed ahead of President Hu Jintao's visit to Russia this week, they said.

That deal will make it quite a bit tougher for the NATO western world army to control China via energy strangulation?

Big sigh out... I am thinking all the radiating points have been covered?So much going on, as the pieces move on the global chessboard

Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov was quoted as saying Russia would fulfil a contract signed in 2007 for the P-800 Yakhont missiles.

Both the US and Israel had requested that Syria should not be supplied with the missiles.The supersonic P-800 Yakhont missiles have a range of 300km (186 miles), carry a 200kg (440lb) warhead, and are able to fly at an altitude of only 5-15m (16-50ft), making it difficult to detect and intercept them.

The P800-Yakhont missiles seem to be upgrades of the Sunburn or Moskit ( SS-N-22) missiles which are considered invincible against ships.

So no wonder israel has been jumping up and down about Russia supplying them to Syria,However, the Russians said nine moths ago that they were going to supply Syria with them honouring their 2007 contract.

So the major assets - the modern equivalent of the naval capital ships - are moving into play. We see now where the Arab Spring was really headed. Like the first falling pebbles from an impending landslide we see the approaching doom of our time.

James is spot on. Iran is very well defended and any navy close enough for them to hit is toast. Between Russian and home-grown missile systems, the Persian Gulf is theirs.

As a side note James check out reports of the Iskander K model. A conventional ballistic missile that delivers a P-500 basalt cruise missile at the business end. While it’s not for export it doesn’t mean the Russian don’t keep a few handy.

The US military hasn’t had anyone go slug it out with them in a real fight since Vietnam. The senior echelons of the US brass are full of ass kissers and ticket punchers. Dubya and Yo’mama dumped out any that knew what it was like to hear the sound of an enemy dedicated to killing them personally.

The Syrians are holding their own in the media war – so far. The fall of the Assad regime would certainly open an unguarded back door to Iran. I think that if Assad was in immanent danger then we (humanity) would really be in big trouble. That’s when I feel the Russians would intervene. They still remember the casualty lists of WWII and vowed never to have to fight again on their own soil.

One joker in the pack is that weasel Saakashvili in Georgia. He has faced large counter demonstrations in recent weeks – with the usual delicate suppression tactics. He is quite happy to kill a few thousand civilians to score some cheap political advantage – guess his time in the West taught him well.

With Greece finally imploding and the contagion spreading to Spain and beyond a big distraction may be called for. It truly is our curse to live in interesting times.

A most excellent answer!Read it to the hubby.I hope James get's back to see/read what you have suggested.

It is quite clear if Syria falls, next in line will be Iran.I did see Iran was making "suggestions" that the US not attack Syria.

I do believe this is as bad as it get's right now.Like we are on the cusp, the precipice..Every morning I expect to get up and read the most horrific news.That is if the internet will still be running?

I had a post on Saakashvili and his oppressive ways. Not to long ago. You are too kind in 'weasel' I call him sak-a-shit-viliHe is a despot.

Your right though, he is a bit of a wild card..He could get the ball rolling with Russia.

While Israel moves in on Syria.

And right now that is how I see an attack be launched.Israel will do the attacking, they will claim defense, as they always do and the western media will spin in their favour.

As my husband points out, and I agree if this is the case, Russia will move decisively to quash any moves from Georgia. As they did with the other previous attempt undertaken by Georgia.I have no doubt Russia understand that Syria is where the attention needs to be.

I tell you I feel on edge alot.

I realize there is other shit going on, but, this situation is critical.

Sorry for the bad English, I use the electronic translator. I - Russian. And I, like most of my countrymen do not like the fact that the U.S. border with Russia puts his arms. From any "Iranian" missiles are going to put the system "Patriot" in Poland? And why the joint Ukrainian-amerinano naval exercise directed against the pirates, the U.S. sent a ship into the Black Sea with the "Aegis"? I happened to mention about Cuba, and the response you quite right: no one liked it when the fence of his house will drive a tank. Encirclement of Russia by the U.S. military bases does not lead to good friendships, which I would like to see between the U.S. and Russia. By the way, my name is Alex.

sak-a-shit-vili… LOL I like that one Penny and may ‘borrow’ it for use elsewhere if you don’t mind.

I understand exactly how you feel Penny. It feels like the oppressive atmosphere just before a big storm. The world pauses before the onslaught.

I got this link from Incoming. While I ignore the spin from the original Debka article I find the black out on-ship as a more ominous sign.http://snafu-solomon.blogspot.com/

It reminds me of the Operation Barbarossa when the German army invaded Poland and then on to Russia. What were Stalin’s army groups doing so far forward to enable the Panzer Corps to encircle them so quickly? Historians seem to have forgotten to ask that question.

I am not sure of the timetable but I’m sure the current main actors know exactly the implication of the current dispersal of the combat assets. We mere cannon fodder will be excluded from such deliberations with celebrity gossip and sports trivia. Maybe A.P’s articles recently hint at darker ways to raise the fear factor.

Dubya’s neocons dreamed up the term pre-emptive action. This was a twist on the legitimate idea of preventative action. US Marine boots on Libyan or Syrian shores may be the line in the sand that must not be crossed.

This may sound like doom and gloom and it is hard to keep from letting the dark clouds shadow our thoughts. I keep in mind that there have been many occasions of sabre rattling in recent years. I am also sure that if we are all looking in the one direction then the real show will happen elsewhere.

Keep up the good work Penny.

PS I agree with Alex. These are not the actions of a friend or partner.

"It reminds me of the Operation Barbarossa when the German army invaded Poland and then on to Russia. What were Stalin’s army groups doing so far forward to enable the Panzer Corps to encircle them so quickly? "

Do you have a link to something I can read up on this saga.A sort of brief overview?I am not up to speed on this either, goodness, one gal can't know it all ;)

But, some basic understanding would be helpful for me to get where it is you are coming from?

Hello Penny, I've read about that theory that Stalin wanted to invade Germany before several years ago (something like 30 years ago). It's not really breaking news and was even in German mainstream media (Stern or Spiegel). Even wikipedia has an article about thathttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin%27s_Missed_Chance

Thank you Gallier2 as I have read a number of articles on the topic over recent years but I could not remember a link for it. It is an obscure event to quote but I did want to imply a meaning with it.

China and Russia are master tacticians as are the true owners of the US and Israhell. I personally feel the same hands are pulling all stings even if indirectly. US administrations have been signalling their intentions for global domination like some cheap imitation of Mike Myer’s Dr Evil.

When they have been signalling a strike for so long it only makes sense that an ambush will be planned in response. That response will unanticipated and will happen with a speed that will stun those involved. The backbone of US power projection - the Carrier Air wing is in for a rough lesson.

At the height of its might the US military was restrained only by the industrial capacity of the continental US. We all know where that was deliberately sent. I firmly believe that the next war is designed to neuter the strength of the US military and to intimidate the rest of the globe for the ‘next phase’.

Gallier thanks for the link and commentary and chuckyman thanks for the commentary.

You guys are both so great and always give me much to think about.

So thanks :)

"When they have been signalling a strike for so long it only makes sense that an ambush will be planned in response. That response will unanticipated and will happen with a speed that will stun those involved. "

Had to ask the hubby, what do you think Chuckyman means by this?

He seems to think you are suggesting that the US will not get the first strike in.The first strike will be delivered by another "player"?

Now you have got me thinking about the ship sitting in the black sea???

Like I said earlier and not pretending to be a great strategist or anything of the sort, but, I wondered if the ship was sent to the black sea to cut Russia off from any sort of attempt at moving towards Syria?

Hi Penny. I appreciate you seem to think I know what I’m talking about (grin). Here’s my tuppence worth then.

The term blitzkrieg means lightning war. We are more accustomed to the term lightening strike. That morphed into shock and awe.

What I meant is that the US will not see it coming. They will be carrying on business as usual bombing the crap out of some ME country when the angel of pain opens up a huge can of whoop ass.

When was the last time a US warship was sunk by a nation state enemy? Maybe our grandparents might remember. The Aegis radar system is designed to alert and fight an aerial threat.

The US military has been designing – not delivering – systems built upon think tank inspired threats for about 20 years since the USSR disappeared. It’s all theoretical and the defence contractors have been eating at the trough the whole time. Everyone else has been designing their systems against actual US kit.

Stealth is the buzz word in design and that delivered the current crop of turkeys. There was an incident in the last few years when 2 seemingly ‘non-stealthy’ Russian combat aircraft suddenly appeared over the flight deck of a US carrier.

The Chinese have developed the dong-feng - a ballistic missile that targets aircraft carriers. There are so many Russian supersonic cruise missiles that I won’t labour the point. The point is that they are supersonic. We haven’t even described the Shkval stealth torpedo that travels at 230mph.http://www.periscope.ucg.com/mdb-smpl/weapons/minetorp/torpedo/w0004768.shtml

The point of all this is that large naval vessels have a short shelf life if modern combat were to happen.

The cruiser in the Black Sea is ‘possibly’ a sacrificial goat but for whom? When it sinks it will leave a huge gap in radar coverage. The slave traders AKA the Chinese have recently been exercising and testing over-flights to the Mediterranean through Turkey.

I think the cruiser in the Black Sea is business as usual for the REMF Admirals that have no idea what’s facing them. They are sending that ship in there thinking that no one would dare (hah) and that their systems will protect them. They won’t.

Any lightning strike will be coordinated and brutal. The real wild card is Turkey. They have been keeping EVERYONE happy recently and they are the fulcrum of what will come. What will they permit? It is truly depressing that after 2000 years we are all still watching the straits of the Bosporus.

I feel that the US will carry on regardless in what ever mission they have been given. They are not in the loop. When that line in the sand I mentioned gets crossed the war will start and no warning will be given. You don’t warn the big guy when you are going to knock him out – do you?

The US will lose the coming war. The real danger is the fact that tactical nukes are released to theatre commanders – God help us. That’s all they will be left with.

My God isn't it time for us Americans to exercise our constitutional responsibilities and put our government on a leash before we get bitten. I read on https://www.unitedstatesmilitia.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7693, that after the Osama Bin Laden assassination the Pakistan government asked the US to remove the bulk of our military in Pakistan and to stop our predator drone bombing across their borders. I guess the situation escalated because China then Issued a formal ultimatum "Any planned attack on Pakistan will be interpreted as an act of aggression against Beijing." It seems like our government has gone rouge. Our country is fighting three wars and is actively starting other conflicts. Our economy is dwindling along with our constitutional right's. I can only pray that we are not a drugged nation siting home in front of the TV watching our house burn.

Resource: Ukraine Military Marker

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