Will there be a second general election in 2017?

LONDON — One of the major questions facing Britain in 2017 as it
comes to terms with June's shock general election result in
is whether another general election awaits later this year.

While Theresa May's Conservative Party still holds more seats
than Labour and any other party it no longer holds enough to form
a parliamentary majority. This is despite the Tories having led
Labour by leads of up to 20% in opinion polls.

This means that Britain is now facing the prospect of a minority
government — a parliamentary phenomenon that the country hasn't
experienced in nearly half a century.

Prime Minister May is in the process of negotiating a deal with
the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which would see the Northern
Irish Party support the Conservatives in major votes on things
like the budget, allowing the Tories, in theory, to
govern on a day-to-day basis.

It would not be a formal coalition government like the one we saw
the Conservatives form with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats in
2010. Instead, it would be an informal relationship, hinged on
the Tories satisfying the DUP's demands.

However, British history tells us that this sort of government is
unstable and could collapse within months.

If this is the case, then we'd be heading for a second general
election. Here's how that could happen — and what it would likely
mean for May, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, and the British
political landscape as a whole.

A quick history lesson

The last time Britain was dealt a minority government was in
1974.

In February of that year, then-Tory Prime Minister Edward Heath
was expected to defeat his Labour challenger Harold Wilson and
form a majority government. Like May in 2017, Heath wanted to
bolster his majority in the House of Commons, and led an election
campaign with the slogan "who governs Britain?".

However, like the surprise outcome of last week's contest between
May and Corbyn, Heath ended up losing seats, while Labour leader
Wilson gained them. This resulted in no overall majority and a
hung parliament.

Heath attempted to strike a coalition deal with the Liberal Party
that would allow him to head a functioning government — but
failed. He resigned a few weeks later in March, 1974.

What happened next?

Britain was without a government and the only remaining option
was to hold another election to sort out the mess.

Another election was held in October and Wilson managed to gain
another 18 seats. Crucially, this gave him a working
parliamentary majority of four seats. A slender majority — but a
majority nonetheless.

So are we about to see a repeat of 1974?

Possibly. May is likely to agree a "confidence and supply" deal
with DUP leader Arlene Foster in the coming days that'll allow
the Tory government to get on with running the country with the
support of the 10 DUP MPs in the Commons.

But — as many commentators have rightly pointed out — this would
still only give May a slim majority which would depend on a
list of DUP demands being met by Prime Minister May. Should
the DUP one day decide that May is refusing to hold up her side
of the bargain, then it could decide to terminate the "confidence
and supply" arrangement and leave May with little option but
to send Britain back to the polls again. WPA Pool /
Getty

So is another election in 2017 inevitable?

Another general election is possible. But May will do everything
she can to avoid it.

The Tories really don't want another general election so soon.
Thursday night was a terrible one for them. The party surrendered
its majority despite pretty much every poll published prior to
the election pointing to a comfortable Tory victory. Labour, on
the other hand, has all the momentum right now, and would
probably fancy its chances to make even more gains and
become the largest party if another election was to take place a
few months down the line.

May is well-aware of this. She will do her utmost to appease the
DUP and keep her government operating for as long as possible —
even if that means dumping some of her own manifesto pledges and
granting some of the DUP's wishes.

As my colleague Adam Bienkov reported on Monday,
May is already set to shelve controversial proposals like the
plan to lift the ban on new grammar schools and the social care
policy that played a big role in costing the party its
majority.

So what will Labour do in the meantime?

Labour may not have won the election but the 30 gains the party
made last week means it can now be a very effective opposition to
Prime Minister May, should the wings of the party come together
to unite behind their leader Corbyn.

With the help of SNP, Liberal Democrat and Green Party MPs,
Labour will look to block as many Conservative policies as
possible over the next few months and make the task of governing
virtually impossible for May. This will be no truer than in the
case of Brexit, where Labour will be in a great position to
impede the vision May previously had for a "hard" Brexit based on
pulling out of key EU institutions like the Single Market and
Customs Union.

If Britain does end up holding another election then Labour will
be ready in waiting. Its membership continues to increase by the
thousands while Corbyn seems to grow in confidence with
each day that passes.

Plus, what can't go overlooked is how Britain's political map now
looks as a result of Thursday's election. Not only did Labour
shock the nation by winning 30 seats, but enjoyed enough of a
swing nationwide to slash Tory majorities in a host of other key
seats. There are 27 constituencies where the Tory lead over
Labour is 2,000 votes or fewer.