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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 03 1996
THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION FROM CUYUTLAN MEXICO HAS SHOWN THAT
THE EYE OF HERNAN HAS DONE A COMPLETE CYCLONIC LOOP SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE HEADING IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS LOOP THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED OF THE STORM. OUR ESTIMATE IS
330/4 KTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS. ...THE TRACK CONTINUES GENERALLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7KTS.
LARGE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE GFDL
MODEL MOVES THE STORM NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND
OVER MEXICO APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THE AVN MODEL INITIALLY MOVES THE STORM NORTH AND THEN
TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. THE OTHERS SHOW EVERYTHING FROM SW
TO NNW AND A VARIETY OF SPEEDS. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN.
WATERS ARE STILL WARM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TORN APART
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND.
JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.2N 105.1W 65 KTS
12HR VT 03/1800Z 19.6N 105.4W 65 KTS
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.3N 105.8W 65 KTS
36HR VT 04/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W 70 KTS
48HR VT 05/0600Z 22.0N 106.9W 70 KTS
72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.0N 108.0W 75 KTS
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