October to December 2018 Deyr rainfall in southern pastoral areas was erratically distributed and seasonal totals were largely below-average. The limited regeneration of pasture and surface water is particularly concerning for areas that are still recovering from drought in 2016 and 2017. Improvements in pastoral conditions are not expected until the March to May 2019 Gu rains.

Conflict across different parts of the country continues to lead to high levels of displacement, limit livelihoods opportunities, and restrict humanitarian access. Areas of Somali, Oromia, SNNPR, and Benshangul Gumuze are affected. In Dawa zone of Somali region, conflict has prevented humanitarian actors from delivering much needed assistance to some 350,000 IDPs. Humanitarian actors have not been able to fully access IDPs in Benshangul Gumuze since their displacement in October 2018.

Throughout much of rest of the country, 2018 harvest stocks are positively contributing to household food access. Over parts of eastern Oromia, southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, and northern SNNPR, however, reduced agricultural production is leading to an early exhaustion of stocks. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in affected areas, as well as in many northern pastoral areas. The government of Ethiopia through NDRMC aims to target eight million people with humanitarian food assistance in 2019 through their appeal.