Crop problems support wheat

Posted May 2, 2014 by John Perkins

Soybeans were mixed on old crop/new crop spread trade. The near term supply remains tight and demand is solid, but there was no real fresh news. New crop’s watching the corn planting pace over the next few days. Soybean meal was mixed with nearbys up and deferreds down, while bean oil was up, following crude oil. Informa Economics estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 87.4 million tons and sees Argentina at 54 million.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. The trade expects some solid planting progress over the next few days, with warmer temperatures and less rainfall. Demand is good with unknown buying 101,600 tons of old crop U.S. corn. Ethanol futures were lower. Informa Economics expects Brazil’s corn crop to be 70.5 million tons and Argentina is estimated at 23.3 million.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and speculative buying. Kansas City led the way up on forecasts for more dry, hot, and windy weather in the Southern Plains next week. Kansas’ wheat crop is expected to be the smallest since 1996 and Oklahoma has also taken a big hit. Informa Economics projects U.S. winter wheat production at 1.496 billion bushels. Minneapolis was up on the spring planting delays and Chicago followed the other pits. Saudi Arabia is tendering for 550,000 tons of wheat and Egypt is in the market for an unspecified amount of wheat. Israel bought 60,000 tons of feed wheat.