Average length of a NFL player’s career? Players and owners don’t agree on that either.

In his conference call with Charger fans, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said about the view that the average age of an NFL career is 3 years. (via NFLLabor.com):

“There is a little bit of a misrepresentation or a misunderstanding on that. Frequently, it is said that the average career is about 3.5 years. In fact, if a player makes an opening day roster, his career is very close to six years…If you are a first-round draft choice, the average career is close to nine years. That 3.5-year average is really a misrepresentation. What it adds is a lot of players who don’t make an NFL roster and it brings down the average.”

The NFL Labor site calls the NFLPA view of short careers a “myth” and provides the following information from NFL figures:

“According to a recent NFL Management Council analysis of players who entered the NFL between 1993 and 2002, the average career length for a player who is on his club’s opening-day roster as a rookie is 6.0 years.”

“The average career length for a player with at least three pension-credited seasons* is 7.1 years (*a player receives a pension credit for each season in which he spends at least three games on an active/inactive roster and/or injured reserve).”

“The average career length for a first-round draft pick is 9.3 years.”

As the NFLLabor.com site concludes, “That 6.0 average is 88 percent higher than NFLPA Executive Director DeMaurice Smith’s recent claim” [of an average of 3.2 years].

That difference is semi-curious.

Certainly, the NFL’s numbers are limited to players that started between 1993-2002 and players who made opening day rosters. Jason Lisk over at The Big Lead tried to check the NFL’s math, and came up with similar though not exact numbers over the same time period.

So instead of guessing where the NFLPA got their numbers, I decided to ask them. This is the information they provided me:

“The NFLPA ran a report on the average number of accrued seasons (6 games on a roster in a season) for NFL players as of the first game of the 2010 regular season, and the average is 3.54 accrued seasons. Here is the report:

Clearly, the NFL and the NFLPA are measuring two different things. Just observationally, in recent years, the trend has been against veterans on rosters and not just due to injuries. Younger players are cheaper. Vet minimums are higher than for younger players. Expensive players get cut if they don’t play to their contract or won’t agree to a pay decrease. If your team has expensive vets, younger players fill in.

These numbers don’t take into account the sizable number of players that do not make rosters. The term “accrued season” is relevant for players/teams because it can determine when a player is eligible for free agency. So a lot of the players on the above list have zero accrued seasons which pulls down the numbers.

So basically, what the sides are telling us is that they disagree on what they are measuring. Any math/football thoughts on these numbers or are you too disinterested to care?

More Annoying Labor Update Because You Aren’t Annoyed Enough.

It looks like the court-ordered mediation between the NFL and players has adjourned until May 16th reportedly to accomodate Judge Arthur Boylan, the mediator’s schedule.

I did not do a special blog post to discuss the Texans schedule release. It’s sort of a non-event. We’ve already known the opponents of the regular season for a long time. To predict how wins-losses when we don’t even know the free agents and draft picks for the Texans much less their opponents is sort of a silly exercise.

And this year, it is such a tease. “Here’s our big unveiling of the schedule of the season that may not happen.” Hoo. Ray.

Eyeballing the schedule, it looks like the early opponents are tough, but last year people wondered if the Texans could survive their early schedule and they did before the wheels fell off.

Schedule is fairly balanced between road and home.

Really, the most notable thing about the schedule is that it stinks for tailgating but is probably good for game prep stability: a bunch of noon games and only one evening game. If you can put your various states of agita, apathy and antipathy aside, here it is:

34 Responses

I was wondering how they “figured” it. I am sure another factor could be counted which is current ex-NFL players (meaning they started at least one game – not just opening day) and averaging their cumulative seasons. The word average has multiple meanings in statistics anyways.

As far as the schedule – I figure we do ok in the 13 game season this year

[You make good points. And yeah, the 13 game schedule would be the only possible upside of a continued lockout. -Steph]

I tend to have (slightly) more sympathy for the players than the owners in this deal. However, if the NFLPA is computing a number as described and representing it as an “average length of a playing career”, then it is dishonest in the extreme.

Suppose you wanted to know average life expectancy, and you had a large room full of people. Would you simply ask everyone their age, divide by the number of people, and think that the result reflected life expectancy? Of course not. The result is average current age, not life expectancy. What the NFLPA is doing is the equivalent of getting all the players in a room, asking each how many seasons he has played, taking the average and calling it expected career length. Actually it’s just current average years of playing experience.

Maybe they’d better stick to being professional football players instead of amateur statisticians.

[Yes! I don't much like the NFL method either because vets on rosters have significantly changed since 2002. I think these numbers are fairly meaningless. -Steph]

But,probably not. I am setting myself up for a good fall of chasing big redfish down in Copano Bay. Got all my gear down at the bay house,got a connection for some good oysters we throw on the grill whole & smoke them then eat em right out the shell. Redfish,speck,flounder all good eating if prepared correctly. Heck,my girlfriend even limited out on nice big red’s last weekend. I love fishing.

We’ve got Indy, Pitt and N.O. in the first 4 games. I think that might look like a 1-3 start.

Then we get Oak, at Balt, at Titans then Jags. I’d call that 2-2, leaving us at 3-5 after 8.

Browns, at Bucs, bye, Jags, Falcons (return of pay me. Yay.). I’ll call it 2-2, but looks to me like a chance for 3-1. We’re now 5-7.

At Bengals, Carolina, at Colts, Titans. 3-1.

I think I see an 8-8 season, assuming we play 16.

Why do we play the Ravens every darn year anyway? Tough team.

[But the deal is that though people sometimes get the final W-L record right, the games rarely go as people predict. Last year people predicted a rough start of the year with Cushing out, and it was going well. Right now, we know that the offense is likely going to come back mostly intact and the defense is being overhauled and we don't know how a lot of the key players are going to be, like the starting safeties. Or a number of the linebackers. -Steph]

What was the actual reason for the short career? Was it a marginal player who was cut after a season or two because the team drafted a better player? When you say that the average career is 3 years or 6 years or 9 years, are we looking at the right thing? Say a person wants to sell insurance…he tries for a few years and can’t make it work so they move on to something else. Would you look at all insurance agent’s careers and say they have short careers? I really don’t know what the NFLPA is asking for here. Do they want benefits for anyone who makes a pro team no matter how long they play?

[I don't think the NFLPA is asking for anything. The NFL put out some numbers. I asked for the NFLPA's numbers. The NFL wants to significantly change the status quo in the NFL, and the NFLPA wants it to mostly remain the way it is. A fundamental issue is the NFL paying for new stadiums in the future and wanting to reduce the salary pool due to that as an investment in the game. NFLPA may not be as keen on that given a feeling that this doesn't help current players who may be out of the game when the NFL's shiny stadium is a going concern. -Steph]

…people sometimes get the final W-L record right, the games rarely go as people predict…

Yeah, it’s just for fun. We also haven’t seen the draft or FA yet. Basically you assume last year’s team with no changes except Wade Phillips. Defense has to be better even with the same personnel.

…right?

I’m boycotting the labor stuff. I’ve quit everyone on Twitter that talks about it and I refuse to listen to anything besides the announcement of an agreement. For now.

[I think that Wade Phillips can improve the defense because he has had experience doing such things. Hard to say how much in one off-season, not knowing player personnel pickups or how much time he is going to get working with them. I think it is hard to predict how teams will do in a particular year, even with knowing all that information. The biggest wildcard is in-season injuries to key players. -Steph]

What I would really like to see is a breakdown for average career by draft round.

The NFL said the average career for a first round pick is 9.3 years and any player who accrues three pension-credited seasons is 7.1 years.

You would certainly expect the first round players to have the longest careers as they are generally going to be the most talented of the bunch. They also get the lions’ share of rookie contract money.

I’d like to see the numbers for second round players, third round players, fourth round, etc.

I’m really interested in seeing those numbers for the fourth round and later because those are the players who are considered the cheap labor guys. They are depth on teams. Sometimes they develop into starters. But they certainly don’t make a lot of money (not compared to the first and second round guys).

How long does the career of those guys last? How much money on average do those guys make over the course of their career? How many of those guys just miss making the necessary three pension-credited seasons, so they’ve sacrificed their bodies through college and a short NFL career with nothing on the back end to help them out years later when health issues related to their playing days develop.

I’m not sure why the NFLPA hasn’t made figures like that available. Perhaps those figures don’t help their argument enough. Or perhaps they just haven’t put them together because they are focused on areas that don’t matter as much in the court of public opinion but are more valuable in negotiations and presentations to the courts.

Only 48% of the players on the 2010 opening day rosters were not eligible for an NFL pension. How many private industries could survive if they offered a pension to employees with only 3 years of service? How about with 52% of your employess being pension eligible regardless of production? How many career opportunities does the average person have to earn pension benefits after three years?

Players that last less than three years are usually bench warmers. They are generally not suffering the massive toll, that the players association say, that leaves former players incapable of earning a living post-retirement. These players were given the opportunity for a free college degree and a $635K bonus ($310K for 2009 and $325K for 2010)for 2 year players, and $325K for rookies. Drafted players and contributors make more but also suffer more. The NFLPA argues that most careers are cut short by injuries, and I cant debate the point because I do not have access the those figures but, its hard to imagine those injuries precluding the player from utilizing the free degree and making a comfortable living for themselves and their families.Perhaps an opportunity for agreement could include larger injury settlements and better medical care for any injuries that limit a players post-career earnings potential.

I realize that the purpose of your post was to highlight one of the many factors that seperate the NFL and PA from an agreement, not to investigate the validity of the arguments. Mathematically the PA would have a hard time earning sympathy releasing that information. Its not easy to make billionaires look pitiable but, they are trying. The pettiness that both sides use for leverage is sickening. A mentor once told me to “thrive on and foster chaos, because where there is chaos there is money to be made.”(no, I am not an attorney). It seems that both sides are using that person as a mentor.

I found Tony Romo’s stats and it says 9 seasons. So he can survive 9 seasons getting creamed behind his atrocious line play. In this year his 9th season when its career ending because the offensive line is still weak sauce sounds like a long career to me. Thats pretty long Stephanie.

[Tailgaters want more primetme games because nighttime games result in more time to party. 3:00pm starts lead to more beverage time as well. Noon starts means that tailgaters are getting their drink on first thing in the morning which a little less sporty than later. If the Texans have a good season, they could earn some primetime games due to the flex schedule. Basically, the Texans got the type of schedule you get when your team stunk last year and the team isn't one of the historical ones that people love/hate. -Steph]

Seems to me that any way you slice the average career of an NFL player it comes up short.

3 years or 9 years it is a short time to capitalize on your talent.

How long do these players prepare for this profession? If you count Jr. High, High School and College that amounts to 10 years of work towards a short career. Some kids start as early as 6 years old and have 15+ years preparing for a career that may only last, at best, 7 seasons or so.

When you consider the new findings about how brain damage affects football players at every level as they grow older, the NFL doesn’t have much of a point.

The players deserve all the compensation they can legally bargain for. They take enormous physical risks that can affect them for a life time.

The NFLPA ran a report on the average number of accrued seasons (6 games on a roster in a season) for NFL players as of the first game of the 2010 regular season….tells me

The rookie wage scale would not be approved if it lasted any longer than the 4th year as noted by the voting percentage ( I assumed yet to be drafted rookies or 20% of the players could not vote)

Seasons Players Total % Voting Player Voting % Cum Vot %

0 368 19.49%

1 287 15.20% 287 18.88% 18.88%

2 243 12.87% 243 15.99% 34.87%

3 205 10.86% 205 13.49% 48.36%

4 185 9.80% 185 12.17% 60.53%

5 138 7.31% 138 9.08% 69.61%

6 111 5.88% 111 7.30% 76.91%

7 102 5.40% 102 6.71% 83.62%

8 74 3.92% 74 4.87% 88.49%

9 59 3.13% 59 3.88% 92.37%

10 41 2.17% 41 2.70% 95.07%

11 24 1.27% 24 1.58% 96.64%

12 19 1.01% 19 1.25% 97.89%

13 13 0.69% 13 0.86% 98.75%

14 9 0.48% 9 0.59% 99.34%

15 5 0.26% 5 0.33% 99.67%

16 1 0.05% 1 0.07% 99.74%

17 1 0.05% 1 0.07% 99.80%

18 2 0.11% 2 0.13% 99.93%

19 1 0.05% 1 0.07% 100.00%

1888 1 1520 1

This leaves the maximum amount of free agency “pie” for the smallest required majority of voters to pass the proposal. Five years would be shot down. Now, if the drafted rookies have a vote before playing, then the rookie scale would be only 2 years and would leave less “ice cream ala mode” for the veterans to put on their greater number of slices of pie.

The next question is what percentage of free agents sign for more than the minimum (some are just happy to find one team that wants to sign them). Stars or in demand players should do very well (Manning, Hanesworth???), while others will be happy to just sign (Brown former Texans PK). That would help show just how many or how few players will really do well financially after their rookie slotting salary.

As to Won Loss – I will say a 10 game season is the best shot of making the playoffs with a 6 and 4 record, and short seasons have a better chance of getting in lucky (as opposed to good).

In the past, I sided with owners (strike years), but this time I am with the players (lockout). You might figure out I am against the side that says no footbal.

PS the preview looks really messy on the table, so keep in mind there are 6 Columns

“Best result for fans for 2011 football is for the court to enjoin the lockout soon, and keep the injunction in place through when the appeal is done. I am guessing some teams secretly would be okay with that result. -Steph]”

My personality can rarely move forward without resolution. I understand its best for 2011 but, I cant help but be concerned about the future ramifications. Would an injunction breed resentment setting the stage for an extended lockout/strike in the future? I would rather reach an equitable settlement for all parties with an eye toward a protracted period of labor harmony, at the expense of forced (un)settlement.

As a Texans fan it pains me to say that because I am in a serious amount of change but, our concerns are 1/32(probably less) of the whole picture.

When I put on my billionaire hat (its agreat looking hat! more fedora than cowboy). It is very difficult for me to invest my money in an NFL team. The profit would have to be exhorbitant to sway my decision. What could make me drop $1,000,000,000 to own a team? Legacy? Power? Sadism? I could invest the same money with Bernie Madoff(jk) and conservatively make $100,000,000 per year for just sailing my yacht. No one remembers most former owners and the inheritance tax will most likely keep my heirs from maintaining ownership. If I craved power I could hire someone to fire anyone that crossed me, hard to beat that for power. In the event I am a sadist I could sail that yacht off the coast of Somalia, Iran, or North Korea. Therefore I can only surmise that these men do it because it is extremely profitable.

This hat is really uncomfortable…..you should try it.

[Best case scenario is what happened last time. Parties work something out during the litigation process. The fix things that everyone agrees are wrong with system, and don't goof up the good stuff. -Steph]

Stephanie- I for one did not enjoy listening to you on 1560 today because your words fell on deaf ears…,literally. So I must confine myself to this ‘bloggie-thingy’ you have created just for me. While you are spot-on with regards to all the unknowns at this time & how that effects our ability to predict our potential win/loss record, will still must contend with the constants we still have. Smith can’t pick worth beans & Kubiak’s niche is OC, not HC. These two have me thinking ‘repeat @6-10′, but with Wade hopefully improving the ‘D’ by having a say in the draft as well as the new 3-4 he is well versed in coaching, I’ll predict an 8-8 & no better. Whether 8-8 is considered doom & gloom or just wishful thinking, either way, the Texans will be mediocre & NFL irrelevent. Both which will result in even McNair having to finally admit that the handwriting is on the wall. Kubiak is such a good person, with only the best of intentions, that I wish he could be more of a success story in Houston, but I am a bit paranoid everytime he glances at that clipboard. One would think, that after 6 years of staring at the same 6-8 offensive plays that he would have his own playbook memorized by now. Sports authorities, analysts, prognosticators, coaches & even we fans, all have our favorites. Some are a bit predjudicial with regards to their predictions while others are swayed by the numbers. But there is one entity that does not focus on the success of a team with regards to their W/L record, but rather, the Neilson Ratings. The Texans for 2011 start most games at noon, have zero MNF or prime-time appearances. To the networks, the Texans are still irrelevent. That must change.

Williams was signed by the Houston Texans as an undrafted free agent on May 2, 2006 but was released in the final preseason roster reduction.

Green Bay Packers

Williams was signed by the Packers on November 29, 2006. In 2007, Tramon earned a roster spot with a solid preseason and went on to play in every contest, as well as both playoff games, with one start, rotating as a nickel and dime back, while posting 11 tackles, 1 interception, and 4 passes defensed. He also had a team-leading 30 kickoff returns for a 22.8 average, with 6 punt returns for a 19.7 average, a touchdown, with 7 special teams tackles.

In 2008, he played in every contest for the second straight season, including 9 starts. He was third in the NFC with five interceptions and 52 tackles (45 solo). He was third on the team with 14 passes defensed, 5 special teams tackles, and 2 forced fumbles.

In 2009, he played in every contest as well (third straight season), including a career-high 10 starts while Al Harris was injured. He had 4 interceptions, and a career high 55 tackles, with 15 passes defensed and 1 sack.

The relevance of a statistic is measured solely on its usefulness in the context it pertains to. If one is trying to measure free agency status, accrued seasons is useful. If you’re simply looking at how long a guy was an NFL player, being on a roster for one game each of 6 years could be called the player’s longevity. However, in the context of money paid to players and how long a player can expect that money, neither statistic is very relevant at all.

A player is paid for being on the roster at their prescribed game payrate. Trindon Holiday didn’t play a game last year, but collected his entire 16-game salary because he was on IR and, hence, on the roster. Brian Cushing was suspended for 4 games last year and, therefore, receieved only 3/4ths of his salary last year. As the Texans accrued injuries, players were picked up mid-year. Were they on the roster long enough to account for an accrued season? Does one game of service satisfy when addressing the total amount of money owners paid to those mid-year players? Not really. Furthermore, accounting based on only opening day rosters is misleading because rosters change mid-season.

Imagine a journeyman player who made the roster his rookie year and was cut after 4 games. For each of the next 7 years, this guy came in and provided depth at linebacker for teams with injuries and filled a roster spot for exactly 4 games per season. According to the NFLPA statistics, he has 0 accrued seasons because he never completed 6 in a season (and he may not have been counted in the above NFLPA tally). The NFL Management Council may claim he has played 8 seasons. Given that he is only paid for each game on a roster, he has only been paid for 2 16-game seasons.

The problem with their context is that they’ve defined longevity in terms of years when the correct unit of measurement is “number of 16-game roster seasons played”. Disregarding playoffs because not all players play in the playoffs each year, players play for 16 weeks a year. They don’t play for the entire year, so a unit like “years” is misleading and out of context. Ask any player and they’ll tell you it does them no good to be perfectly healthy for the other 36 weeks a year if they are always hurt and off a roster for the 16 weeks that count. Given the total amount paid out by owners to players in a given season, which is what they are arguing about (note that the amount of money is measured for a “season”), a “number of 16-game roster seasons played” statistic would tell you how many seasons an average player could expect to receive some portion of that money.

That is why they fail to agree. They didn’t define their statistic to fit the task at hand.

Since you brought up LZ, he and I have had a differing opinion on the Texans Defensive players (most notabely Okoye)

They’ve never had a good Defensive coordinator.

My opinion is that it applies to every player on the D. We don’t know who these players are because they’ve never been coached by an NFL DC before.

How do we know Okoye is a bust when, (though DL coach is considered strong), he has been coached his entire career by Richard Smith and Frank Bush?

Two novice, first timers, who had never called a game before.

Why was Kareem Jackson isolated so often?

Why would you ever put Cushing in coverage?

Why, when Pollard almost singlehandedly destroyed Baltimore keeping us in the game by playing in the box and attacking from all angles,did you the very next week abandon that strategy, and put him back in coverage where he was getting burned ALL year?

Your Defensive head coach is going into situations and playing his weakness’. Is horrible too strong a word for that logic?

LZ says that Okoye has not shown enough flashes, athletically, to make him feel like a coaching change is going to make a difference.

I think when you put a guy who isn’t the biggest NT on the planet and you ask him to bull rush the guard or center, you aren’t putting him in a position to succeed.

Its a homer argument and honestly its all I’ve got for this year to hang onto. This could go down hill…fast.

I think it is fair to say the defensive players of the Texans are nowhere near the bottom of the league in talent. But that’s where they played in 2010.

That’s coaching.

What say you Steph?

MT

[I have a mixed view of this. I think there are very few players who are so good that they could excel despite a bad situation. Do I think Amobi Okoye is inherently a bust? I don't know if given a better situation he could succeed ala Babin. Do I think he's a great fit for a 3-4 NT? No. -Steph]

Texans have to add some players to the secondary in FA right? If they follow the franchise framework and ignore FA, it looks like a pretty tough season. I would think they would at best split with Colts, lose to Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons. Toss up games would be the remainder of the division games (Colts away, Titans home/away, Jags home/away). Lets say they win two of these. That’s 8-8. To start to make noise as a playoff contender again, they seriously need to fix the secondary. I am crossing my fingers that they do this through free agency to bring in veteran, experienced players. With our talent-depleted secondary, other needs (pass-rushing OLB, nose tackle, wide reciever) are luxuries.

Thanks for clarifying this misleading statistic regarding the “average career length of an NFL player” being only 3.5 years. Most people get the mistaken impression this is due to injury (which is true to a limited extent), but it’s more due to the huge turnover of marginal players in the NFL every year.

This is similar to another misleading statistic often given out: In 1900, the average life expectancy in the U.S. was only 47 years. However, most adults in 1900 did not die at 47. The life expectancy was so low in large part (although not altogether) due to a very high infant mortality rate. Naturally, if a significant percentage of infants die, the overall average will go way down.

The reason for the short career is simple. They bring more players in to training camp than every team intends to keep because of the roster limit. So we’ve learned that it’s not easy to really find NFL caliber talent?

Those stats are all bass askwards. How can you measure career lengths with current players? Their careers are not over yet. To truly measure NFL careers, you would need to add all those FORMER players who have had measurable career stats. Then figure on how many retired, were never picked up again, or are done due to injury. The stats they gave mean nothing.

As for the schedule, it looks like we will drop 1-3 right from the start (although Miami is due). We should bounce back near the bye week, so I am figuring like 5-5 by then. Then we should go 4-2 to end out the schedule, which will just be enough to ave Kubiaks butt again. Obviously it all depends on how screwed up the Titans are this next year.

BTW, COWBOY, it seems being cut by the Texans may be a blessing for many players. Look how many have gone off to other teams and had better seasons. I doubt Babins is complaining.

Great informative post as usual. but, I am really too worn out on this topic. Assuming a 3 year deal, I am pretty sure this relatively small group of people will find a way to split $30b before anyone starts losing money.

Different topic: I am the only guy annoyed that in this day of budget cuts and laying off teachers that the justice department spent +$28M pursuing Barry Bonds. Much more expected on Roger Clemens and Lance Armstrong. I am against cheating, but govt waste is even more annoying.

The defense should get better as the season goes on, and the players get comfortable with it. Not having film of the Texans players in this defense should be an early advantage, though not as much as one would hope for, because it will be shunted by inexperience in the new defense.

The offense has to find ways to get off to better starts. They have to stop sleep walking in the first quarter.

[I think the 1st quarter thing is an anomaly. That hasn't been a trend under Kubiak or Schaub. And it wasn't every game. There were a lot of reasons for slow starts, and one of those reasons were that opposing offenses often played keep away.-Steph]