I don't mean to put a damper on the everyone's summer holidays, but the current heatwaves in the U.S. and Europe has me thinking back to numerous warnings issued during last summer's major drought and "record-breaking heatwave" in the U.S.

Analysts at Rabobank, a Netherlands-based bank specialising in food and agri-business financing, were crunching the numbers and predicted at the time that food prices, specifically meat prices, would soar in 2013 as a result of the U.S. drought.

Back in 2011, the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI), a research body of academics from Harvard and MIT, using data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, published a paper that correlated "outbreaks of unrest" in 2008 and 2011 with increases in food prices. They claimed to have identified the precise threshold for global food prices that leads to worldwide unrest: 210 points...

"high global food prices are a precipitating condition for social unrest. More specifically, food riots occur above a threshold of the FAO price index of 210."

Yaneer Bar-Yam, president of NECSI and one of the paper's authors, said:

"When people are unable to feed themselves and their families, widespread social disruption occurs. We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring."

The aggregated FAO Food Price Index averaged 211.3 points in June this year, but more telling indicators might be their June 2013 Cereal Price Index, which averaged 236.5 points, and their Sugar Price Index, which averaged 242.6 points. Dairy prices are also riding above this 210 threshold, so when we consider that most people's diets are substantially based on sugar, cereals and dairy, followed by meats from cattle raised on grains, it seems pretty clear that we're very much in the danger zone.

"When you have food prices that peak, you have all these riots. But look under the peaks, at the background trend. That's increasing quite rapidly, too," said Yaneer Bar-Yam. "In one to two years [from 2011], the background trend runs into the place where all hell breaks loose."

The Food Crises and Political Instability report doesn't simply compile the correlation between food prices and political uprisings, but also projects a certain global threshold when food price trends might rise significantly enough to spark global unrest. According to the NECSI, the world will reach its food price threshold in August 2013.

Compounded by speculators in the commodities markets "making a killing" on the food crisis, prices for staples like corn and wheat rose nearly 50% on international markets last summer. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that rising global food demand will "push up prices 10 to 40 percent over the coming decade" [that is, between 10 and 40 percent higher than their current highs].

Meanwhile the UN has warned that world grain reserves are so dangerously low that "severe weather in the U.S. or other food-exporting countries could trigger a major hunger crisis in 2013."

'Green guru' Lester Brown, president of D.C.-based think-tank, the Earth Policy Institute, says the climate is "no longer reliable" and that demands for food are growing so fast that a breakdown is inevitable:

"Food shortages undermined earlier civilisations. We are on the same path. Each country is now fending for itself. The world is living one year to the next... Climate is in a state of flux; there is no normal any more. We are beginning a new chapter."

Here's what Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior FAO economist, had to say about the global food crisis last year:

"We've not been producing as much as we are consuming. That is why stocks are being run down. Supplies are now very tight across the world and reserves are at a very low level, leaving no room for unexpected events next year."

Yes, that means there's no room for unexpected events this year (2013).

China, normally the world's second largest surplus exporter of wheat, just this week announced that it will be importing wheat from the U.S. this year, following major crop failures resulting from the northern hemisphere's record-breaking cold, wet spring.

Niall Bradley has a background in political science and media consulting, and has been an editor and contributing writer at SOTT.net for 8 years. His articles are cross-posted on his personal blog, NiallBradley.net. Niall is co-host of the 'Behind the Headlines' radio show on the Sott Radio Network and co-authored Manufactured Terror: The Boston Marathon Bombings, Sandy Hook, Aurora Shooting and Other False-Flag Terror Attacks with Joe Quinn.

Reader Comments

it looks to me like the much called-for and anticipated ‘global revolution’ may be about to happen, but it also looks like it’s gonna be a rather more chaotic and misguided affair than many have hoped for. Buckle up indeed,and better get canning!

The weather on Earth has been slowing down since 2007. Highs and Lows don't move along like they used to.
Welcome to the new chapter, which is nothing more than the chapter before the current one with a new paint job: 7+ Billion mouths to feed. The last time this happened there were only 2 Billion mouths to feed.
Big Ag doesn't work when the climate is in a snit.

"A: Hikes January. Cassiopaea here!
Q: (L) What does "hikes January" mean? (Perceval) Maybe "yikes January"!
A: Prices.
Q: (Perceval) Price hikes. (L) Is that going to be a really significant issue?
A: Yes.
Q: (L) Why?
A: Food scarcity becomes more obvious, no longer able to cover it up.
Q: (L) Have they been covering up already existing food scarcity?
A: Oh yes!
Q: (L) Okay. Anything further going along that line?
A: Following food issues, always sickness.
Q: (Andromeda) Sickness like the plague?
A: Soon enough.
Q: (L) Well, anything further along that line before we divert off onto questions which we have?
A: Today was not the end of the world in case you didn't notice, however an "end" of sorts will certainly come as we have been suggesting for many years. Time is never definite. Things also happen in steps and stages. The major steps include things like assassinations that are accepted by the masses. When such is not objected to, then the next stage is prepared."

"Apathy - Apathy is another symptom of our cultural decline, and a mindset that keeps most people from participating in civics or protest. Apathy is a nearly conscious choice to remain ignorant and distracted about something while pursuing the path of least resistance. Apathy seems to be the number one byproduct of our culture of convenience. People don't care about the quality of our world enough to become involved."

"Q: (Psyche) Yeah, and the tail... (Andromeda) Anything else on Elenin? (Perceval) We'll have to wait and see? (Psyche) Are we going to see a return of the Black Death?
A: Extremely likely.
Q: (Galaxia) In Europe first? Where's it gonna hit?
A: Wait and see.
Q: (Galaxia) Oh no! That's all I've got to say.
A: Those that have a certain genetic profile may suffer very little.
Q: (Andromeda) Is that any of us? (Galaxia) That doesn't sound like anybody is immune... like, "They'll suffer very little before they die!"
A: Smoking tobacco is a clue and an aid.
Q: (L) A clue to the genetic profile?
A: Yes.

[...]

A: It is not just aliens that don't like to eat people that smoke! But from a certain perspective the viruses that cause such illnesses as the Black Death are "alien".

[...]

Q: (Andromeda) When will this start? (Atriedes) That's kind of a prediction... (laughter) (Galaxia) Soon, or long term?
A: 18 months to 2 years.
Q: (L) In other words, if Elenin or something else has something like that in its tail, and the earth goes through the tail, it can still take a year or so for it to precipitate onto the earth?
A: Yes
Q: (Galaxia) Will colloidal silver help us fight the plague?
A: Not alone, but very helpful.
Q: (Galaxia) Will our dietary changes help us fight it off?
A: Enormously!!! Especially fat consumption for cell protection.
Q: (Ark) What kind of cookies are especially good? (laughter)
A: Shortbread!
Q: (Andromeda) With coconut oil?
A: Yes.
........................

Q: (Andromeda) Are veggies not really good for us as we have begun to suspect from our research?
A: Pretty much.
Q: (L) Why?
A: Every living thing has a protective life preserving mechanism. For animals it is their ability to run and hide or fight. For living things that do not have those capacities nature has still not abandoned them.
Q: (Ailen) Basically lectins... (Psyche) And anti-nutrients. (Ailen) Geez... between that and the low-fat propaganda, most people are dead.
A: Yes.
Q: (Perceval) Is it possible for us to get all of our nutrients from animals without taking supplements?
A: It would be better if they were "wild fed" but you are able to figure this out."

I sort of knew this was coming and should like to warn the US politicians now is NOT the time to be messing with the SNAP benefits unless they want to see a revolution here in the States.They may want to remember what is happening in other countries right now.