Right Side of the Charthttp://rightsideofthechart.com
Stock Trading, Investing, & Market AnalysisFri, 31 Jul 2015 16:27:04 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.3ASPS Backtesting Support, Long Entryhttp://rightsideofthechart.com/asps-backtesting-support-long-entry/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/asps-backtesting-support-long-entry/#commentsFri, 31 Jul 2015 16:27:04 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31638[continue reading...]]]>ASPS (Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.) offers an objective long entry here on the backtest of the 32.88-35.20 support zone.Suggested stops for those only targeting T1 (200-day ema) would be on any move below 32.78 while the suggested stop for those targeting T2 (46.90) or T3 (61.43) would be on any move below 31.05 (or the 32.78 level could also be used for a relatively tight stop for those targeting T2 and/or T3).

ASPS daily July 31st

The 200-day ema, which has capped all advances since April 2014, currently comes in around 41.29 (about 24% above current levels) although keep in mind that the 200-day moving average is dynamic and will move higher along with ASPS, should this trade play out, therefore providing a gain of well over 25%, if hit). As my price targets are usually set slightly below the actual resistance level in order to minimize the chances of missing a fill, should the stock reverse just shy of resistance, T1 will be set 7 cents below the 200-day ema.

ASPS recently reported earnings on July 23rd so we have a few months to worry about any earnings induced gaps. Due to the above average return potential (80+% gain to the final target, should it be hit), ASPS will be added as both an Active Long Trade (i.e.- swing trade) as well as a Long-term Trade (trend trade/investment). Although the stock is trading down sharply today, this trade does offer an extremely attractive R/R with minimal downside if stopped out and relatively large profit potential.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/asps-backtesting-support-long-entry/feed/0Biotech Wreck Pending (video)http://rightsideofthechart.com/biotech-wreck-pending-video/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/biotech-wreck-pending-video/#commentsThu, 30 Jul 2015 17:31:16 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31629[continue reading...]]]>This video covers the biotech sector starting with an overview of PBE (PowerShares Dynamic Biotech Portfolio ETF) and IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund ETF), both of which are very close to triggering major sell signals. In the coming months, my expectation is for a drop of at least 20% in the biotech sector with many individual biotech stocks poised for substantially deeper corrections. As of now, the sector (as represented by these two ETFs) has fallen to & remains on major uptrend lines so we have yet to trigger a major sell signal in the sector. However, as discussed in this video, the charts indicate that a breakdown and bear market in the biotechs is likely to occur soon.

Following the overview of those biotechnology sector ETFs and my preferred shorting proxy for the sector, LABU (3x Biotech Bull ETF), several of the leading biotech companies along with some of the more promising short candidates in the sector are covered, including suggested entry points and price targets.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/biotech-wreck-pending-video/feed/0Short Trade Ideas Updatedhttp://rightsideofthechart.com/short-trade-ideas-updated-4/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/short-trade-ideas-updated-4/#commentsThu, 30 Jul 2015 17:12:11 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31631[continue reading...]]]>The following Short Trade ideas have either exceeded their suggested stop(s) or no longer look compelling from a R/R perspective and will be moved to the Completed Trades category:

ACN: exceeded the suggested stop over 100.65 on July 17th.

ALGT: came with 2% of reaching the first target but then reversed, exceeding both the entry point & any reasonable stop (none suggested).

ALK: just printed a divergent high but has exceed both the entry level & any reasonable stop (none suggested).

FAS: the FAS short entered on July 10th was stopped out on July 16th when XLF took out the previous reaction high. That trade has been moved to the Completed Trades category but FAS was also added as a new short entry on July 24th and remains an Active Trade at this time.

FB: Stop parameters were not listed on the most recent short entry posted on July 15th but despite today's post-earnings sell-off, I can't make a compelling case to stay short (and personally was stopped out of that last trade). As such, FB will be removed from the Active Trades category. For those still short, consider trailing stops lower or a hard stop above 97.50.

ILMN: weekly (long-term) chart still looks bearish but ILMN exceeded the upper-most suggested stop of 3:1 to the final target.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/short-trade-ideas-updated-4/feed/0LL Stopped Outhttp://rightsideofthechart.com/ll-stopped-out/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/ll-stopped-out/#commentsThu, 30 Jul 2015 16:23:24 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31626In updating the trade ideas today, LL (Lumber Liquidators) will be moved to the Completed Trades category as it exceeded the suggested stop below 20.00 on July 17th.

The short trade ideas will also be updated shortly.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/ll-stopped-out/feed/0INTC Head & Shoulders Pattern Short Entryhttp://rightsideofthechart.com/intc-head-shoulders-pattern-short-entry/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/intc-head-shoulders-pattern-short-entry/#commentsWed, 29 Jul 2015 15:57:00 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31620[continue reading...]]]>INTC (Intel Corp) offers an objective short entry here on the backtest of the neckline of this head & shoulders topping pattern. This H&S pattern on INTC was discussed in the July 23rd semiconductor sector video along with SMH (Semiconductor ETF). Since that video, SMH went on to break down below its primary uptrend line and is currently backtesting it from below just as INTC is backtesting the neckline from below.

INTC daily July 29th

The daily chart below shows the recent breakdown & current backtest of the primary uptrend line in SMH while as this 10-year weekly chart shows, SMH is currently poised to print the first weekly close below the 2008-2015 bull market uptrend line unless the semis can rally from here & into the close tomorrow. As discussed in the recent video, a confirmed breakdown of the semiconductor sector would greatly increase the odds of the active semiconductor short trades, INTC & AVGO, reaching their profit target(s).

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/intc-head-shoulders-pattern-short-entry/feed/0Energy Sector (XLE) At Major Supporthttp://rightsideofthechart.com/energy-sector-xle-at-major-support/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/energy-sector-xle-at-major-support/#commentsTue, 28 Jul 2015 16:26:12 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31615[continue reading...]]]>XLE (SPDRs Select Sector Energy ETF) is currently testing dual intersecting trendlines: the primary bull market uptrend line (blue) and the downtrend line that capped all advances from 2007 until the breakout in early 2013... an objective level to position long energy stocks for long-term swing/trend trades. Should this support give way, the next support zone is defined by the yellow horizontal lines (61.50-62.80). This chart is a 7-day period chart (each candlestick represents 7 trading sessions) spanning just over 13 years.

Several key energy stocks are also currently trading at or near key support levels. Although a break of this support can't be ruled out, establishing long positions in XLE or select energy stocks here with the appropriate stops in place below could prove to be a timely entry for longer-term traders & investors looking to add some exposure to the energy sector. I currently see a mixed bag in the charts with some key energy stocks poised to move higher while I can make a nearly equal case for additional downside in many of these stocks in the coming months but overall, I am cautiously bullish on the energy sector at this time. With the aforementioned support zone only about 8-10% below current levels, longer-term traders & investors might consider initiating a scale-in strategy, starting to buy incremental lots of either XLE and/or the most attractive stocks in the energy sector.

XLE 7-day period 13-yr history July 28th

As with gold, to help support the case that a lasting bottom in the energy sector is near, we need to see some technical evidence that at least a tradeable bottom is forming in both crude as well as the energy stocks. So far, one potentially bullish development is the recent surge in volume highlighted on this chart. Such volume surges during a downtrend my be indicative of a selling climax & are often followed by lasting rallies and/or bull markets. In addition to a video, I will post some static charts on some of the more promising setups in the sector asap.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/energy-sector-xle-at-major-support/feed/0FNHC Short Entry & Trade Setuphttp://rightsideofthechart.com/fnhc-short-entry-trade-setup/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/fnhc-short-entry-trade-setup/#commentsTue, 28 Jul 2015 14:30:17 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31610[continue reading...]]]>FNHC (Federated National Holding Co.) will be added as a somewhat aggressive Active Short Trade here in anticipation of an imminent breakdown with an alternative, more conventional entry or add-on with a close below the weekly trendline or any close below 23.20 (5 cents below the bottom of the horizontal support zone on this 4-year, 2-day period chart below). As of now, the official price targets are T1 at 19.78 & T2 at 15.36 with a suggested stop over 26.50.

FNHC 2-day period July 28th

This 10-year weekly chart stands out as one of the most promising longer-term swing or trend trade shorts at this time. I am currently short the financial sector via FAS and within the financial sector, there are several insurance companies, such as FNHC, that look poised for substantial downside in the coming months. The green horizontal lines on this weekly chart represent additional downside targets for Federated National, should the insurance sector roll over soon as expected.

On a related note, I'm currently looking for a move down in IBB (Biotech ETF) to at least the 333 area (about a 10% drop). As such, I plan to align my price targets on NBIX, as well as any other biotechs that might trigger an entry soon, with the charts of the biotech index.

NBIX daily July 27th

I have numerous trade setups on my watchlists and with many of those, such as NBIX, if I get a trendline or price alert & the entry looks to be time sensitive, I will post the trade idea asap, even if I had not identified the exact suggested profit targets at the time the price alert was set. There are still a couple other Active Trades with price targets TBD, which I plan to follow up with asap. If you are following any of the trade ideas on the site & have questions or comments, feel free to contact me.

]]>http://rightsideofthechart.com/nbix-short-entry-trade-setup/feed/0Shorting XLF – Bearish Engulfing Candlestickhttp://rightsideofthechart.com/xlf-bearish-engulfing-candlestick/
http://rightsideofthechart.com/xlf-bearish-engulfing-candlestick/#commentsFri, 24 Jul 2015 19:12:13 +0000http://rightsideofthechart.com/?p=31313[continue reading...]]]>XLF (financial sector etf) and FAS (3x long financials etf) will once again be added as Active Short Trades following yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick. In the yesterday's video covering the semi-conductor sector I had highlighted that potentially topping candlestick pattern in XLF & as often stated, it is best to wait for additional confirmation with prices moving lower in the trading session(s) following a bearish engulfing candlestick. Today we clearly have confirmation with the financials trading down sharply. Add to that the fact that following a brief whipsaw sell signal, which was followed by XLF moving back above the primary downtrend line, as of today XLF is once again trading below that key uptrend line (support).

Bearish engulfing candlesticks, following a long uptrend & confirmed via additional downside, such as the one pointed out on April 28th when AAPL printed it's all-time high nearly 3 months ago, offer one of the better R/R short entries (assuming they are confirmed with additional bearish technicals, as was the case with AAPL & as is currently the case with XLF). This zoomed-in daily chart of XLF shows the two previous corrections in the financials (10% & 9%), with both tops accompanied by an "confirmed" engulfing candlestick.

XLF daily 2 July 24th

The recent XLF/FAS short trade exceeded the suggested stop on Thursday when XLF made a marginal new high. As such, that previous trade was stopped out (and will be updated soon, along with a few other recently stopped out trades). XLF (or FAS) both offer objective entries for a new short trade here with a suggested stop over the recent highs (yesterday's high 25.62 in XLF) with a sole profit target of 23.15 (additional targets likely to be added).