Grain or cattle

Nov 7, 2017 | 21:05
1
In our local area of eastern Sask, last ten years has seen significant shift of acres from grass and forage into straight grain farming.
Do not see these acres going back into grass without some kind of cattle market shift to provide incentive.
Do not see any major government policy shifts coming like end of Crow rate and subsidy that helped convince many of us to stay in cattle.
See lots of complaining about grain transportation and handling at present but does not seem to have increased optimism for cattle.
Are there areas where cattle numbers are increasing?

Nov 7, 2017 | 21:26
2
I seem to remember the government encouraging livestock production. ....then came BSE and they turned their on them. It's amazing anyone mixed farming whose land was grainfarm-able stuck it out.

But to stay on topic. ......fewer but bigger producers. Haven't heard of a new startup for many many many years...in fact I can't think of one.

Alot of people probably can't afford too much beef in their diet...pork and chicken are cheaper factory farmed alternatives

Nov 7, 2017 | 21:29
3
Dad said this happened in the seventies. Everybody tore up alot of their grass and seeded it to some type of crop. Some wet falls and the eighties changed that in a hurry. Not saying it will happen again but who knows the way things are now u never know.

Nov 7, 2017 | 21:53
5
I rented out a quarter of pasture one year. 45 pairs x $100 for the season. $4500. The next spring I ripped out the cross fences and direct seeded flax. Sold $45000 worth of flax seed. The rest of the cows left that fall and we finally took a week vacation to Mexico that winter. Not sure what it's going to take to get me back into cow-calf but the current prices aren't in the ballpark yet. Hell they aren't even playing the same fucking sport.

Nov 7, 2017 | 22:20
6
I rent my moms land one third share, seeded a gumbo patch to alfalfa, offered it to my cow neighbor, offered me 70/30, so i would have to give my mom 3/ 1/3 more than i got from them and the crop was mine, hooked onto the offset disk the same day.

Nov 7, 2017 | 22:30
7
I've sold a lot of high quality hay in the past. Never made much or really anything selling the rained-on stuff to cow guys. Sold the whole hay shed full for well into 7 figures one year to Saudi Arabia for racing camels. Local cow guys bitched and probably still do years later that it was Manitoba hay and should have stayed here. Be sold to them for nothing I guess. You cow guys are squeezing the wrong end of the teat here. Demand more for your product and maybe we'll still grow you some feed.

In our local area of eastern Sask, last ten years has seen significant shift of acres from grass and forage into straight grain farming.
Do not see these acres going back into grass without some kind of cattle market shift to provide incentive.
Do not see any major government policy shifts coming like end of Crow rate and subsidy that helped convince many of us to stay in cattle.
See lots of complaining about grain transportation and handling at present but does not seem to have increased optimism for cattle.
Are there areas where cattle numbers are increasing?

Cow dynamics changed here last 15 years, less cows in country, older generation got out after BSE years, most young guys don't want the work and lifestyle of it. Lots of acres plowed up here too, I think some guys will be sorry, not all land is good farmland. Not many 160 acre farmable quarters here, I see a huge waste in the 5/10/20 acres left idle now as not large enough to be pastured but not farmable chunks. Guess it makes wildlife habitat.

Other change I see is guys with cows are bigger and guys that had to buy feed got out due to the price swings in feed costs.

We are still mixed, got 75 cows, calf prices good again this fall. I like the financial stability of a mixed farm. Would be nice not to have to deal with cows at seeding and harvest times but the rest of the year gives me a reason to get out of bed.

I've sold a lot of high quality hay in the past. Never made much or really anything selling the rained-on stuff to cow guys. Sold the whole hay shed full for well into 7 figures one year to Saudi Arabia for racing camels. Local cow guys bitched and probably still do years later that it was Manitoba hay and should have stayed here. Be sold to them for nothing I guess. You cow guys are squeezing the wrong end of the teat here. Demand more for your product and maybe we'll still grow you some feed.

Maybe you are looking at it backwards, you maybe didn't make much on your rained on hay but at least you had a market for what the export guys didn't take. How much would you have made if you threw a match on it.

Cattle and other livestock have a huge impact on grain prices even if you don't sell feed grains, all about supply and demand. All the feed and feed grain acres get switched to hard red, canola and pulses then where would prices be. And don't forget about limited rail capacity.

In our local area of eastern Sask, last ten years has seen significant shift of acres from grass and forage into straight grain farming.
Do not see these acres going back into grass without some kind of cattle market shift to provide incentive.
Do not see any major government policy shifts coming like end of Crow rate and subsidy that helped convince many of us to stay in cattle.
See lots of complaining about grain transportation and handling at present but does not seem to have increased optimism for cattle.
Are there areas where cattle numbers are increasing?

This is a discussion I have with myself a lot.

This used to be the heart of cattle country. Most crop acres went back to grass in the 80's and 90's. But now, I think the horses outnumber the cows, literally. The remaining 80 and 90 year old cattle guys are slowly retiring, their sons don't want anything to do with it. Have one neighbor my age (just young bucks, only half way to 80) who is passionate about cows, as is his son, and they are doing really well with them, and earn every penny. He just discovered that his manure is a hot commodity too.

After many threats and promises to sell them, I still keep 100 + low maintenance cows, just enough to remind me why we got out of cows in the first place...
Other reasons:
-Have some contigious lowlands that are never going to be productive cropland, but make excellent pastures. Renting it out proves to be as much work as running my own cows on it, so very little cost(or lost revenue) to summer pasture.
-Between extending grazing, salvaging hailed crops, grazing stubble spring and fall, and feeding good straw and hay that isn't pretty enough to sell, my costs to winter the cows is very low. No big fwa or bale processor or big fuel bill required, contrary to popular belief.
-Cows have never been hailed out, that is a big one in this area.
-Don't carry crop insurance, consider the cows to be my insurance policy,
-I use them to convert ~ 20 acres a year of my worst farmland into my best by feeding in feeders and bedding them there with lots of windbreaks. Basically stealing the nutrients and fibre from elsewhere that can afford it, to improve somewhere else.
- Have all the facilities, tools, fences, equipment haven't spent a dime on any of these items for probably a decade, so again fixed costs are low. As they depreciate beyond repair, this is requiring a rethink.

Unfortunately, we calve at the same time as seeding, ( too muddy to calve in spring, and not ambitious enough to calve in winter), so that is a lot of work, can't postpone helping a calf suck or treating a calf, but have to postpone seeding sometimes. Harvest is also when cows need moved more often, bales picked, cropland fences patched up to stretch the pasture out longer.

When I look at Google earth, or drive around the prairies, I often wonder how many cows or sheep or goats etc. could be integrated into most grain farms on non producing land for virtually no cost. Many quarters are easily half sloughs, and nothing has used them for decades. Obviously things aren't as bad as some grain farmers would have us believe, at least not bad enough to want to work that hard.

Nov 8, 2017 | 00:38
11
The hay business can't be that bad. Neighbor used to be the biggest grain farmer in the area, and is now 100% hay, no livestock either, sold all the grain equipment, farms some of the best land anywhere too. Claims to be doing quite well at it, and the numbers they tell me will gross as much or more than a canola crop, with a fraction of the inputs, and a much shorter season. Quite a few straight hay operations around here. The feed market is feast or famine. The horse market is nothing but fun ( unless you happen to enjoy getting paid). And the export market is about like Russian Roulette. Years like 2016 remind me why I'm not big into hay anymore. When it rains every day for the entire summer, the hay isn't very marketable.

Most of our land is grain farm-able. The sloughs are nice and clean and our neighbors enjoy salvaging the hay out of them at a real reason-a-bale(reasonable) cost.

Nobody says you can't seed grass on grainland to pasture and hay it....I just chose to go the grain route....with the lack of help here I just didn't think I would be doing either enterprise justice... some of the busy seasons overlapped too much.

I can't say I hated cattle....I even worked part time for 9 years in a stock yards after grade twelve.

Nov 13, 2017 | 09:30
14
I think the cattle thing is disappearing strictly due to returns. Our Provincial Agriprofits report shows a loss of $160 per cow for 2016 and only one "good" year in 2014 across a group that I think are probably some of the better managers. The challenges of gaining economies of scale in cattle is a lot more difficult than in grain. As grain acres expand it is possible to upsize equipment - 20 to 40 to 80' drills are now fairly common. It is tough to upsize cows in the same way, while still employing close to the same amount of labour. We are seeing cows disappear at a fairly rapid pace from our neighbourhood and it is strictly a math problem.
While there are ways to reduce the workload, a lot of that requires a significant mental adjustment and that seems to be easier said than done. With cattle, sometimes doing what appears to be less is actually more. I am currently fairly concerned at the moment about getting to the point where we lose infrastructure in Canada and are exposed to even higher levels of risk where we might not be able to process our own product.
There is room for growth with better grazing models. I also agree that the folks I still know that are in cattle are expanding either through design or necessity. $600,000 quarters do not make for good grazing, unless it is after you harvest a crop of grain. We have seen pasture land trade here for a hefty price this summer. My math shows that the interest cost for debt service on that ground for 5 months of grazing would be $1000 per cow, unless there was a serious managed grazing plan in place (there isn't).

Nov 14, 2017 | 08:57
15
I stay in cattle because I like it....the returns don't really justify it, but it helps my tax situation...;-)
Have neighbors who will rent the land reasonably, they really don't want everything broke up, fences and trees taken out and sloughs drained. But, I do realize that could change...and that would make my decision for me. there is not enough return to compete. However, there has always been a swing back and forth with cattle and grain, problem is, putting up fence and seeding pasture is getting quite expensive and time consuming.
Like Sean, I do worry about losing our processing and infra structure...part of it is we have an economy that does have higher wages and life style than some competitors growing beef....

Nov 14, 2017 | 17:56
16
I blame a lot of the decline in cows with BSE mess of 2003. Cows aren’t a get rich proposition. When cattle were the only thing making money it was only because everything else was losing money, land costs were depressed. Grazing was reasonable. We expanded our land base and numbers in the bse years. Even as it has improved from then everything else has gone up. We downsized our herd to what we can handle around home. Everyone is getting older and it’s hard to find help. I figure if we are at a number which best uses our rough ground and complements our grain side then that’s all I want. Seems like it’s an economy of scale. Certain herd sizes are too big but not big enough. 250 head used to be a good number but now I fear it’s probably 400. If you’re mixed it’s getting to where unless you’re a colony a 250 head herd and 2000 acres of crop requires so much labour at times you’re not doing a good job of neither and I wouldn’t put all my eggs in cattle. Get a bad drought and those cows still need to eat.

When I look at Google earth, or drive around the prairies, I often wonder how many cows or sheep or goats etc. could be integrated into most grain farms on non producing land for virtually no cost. Many quarters are easily half sloughs, and nothing has used them for decades. Obviously things aren't as bad as some grain farmers would have us believe, at least not bad enough to want to work that hard.

I do the same thing from the road ways! I find it incomprehensible the amount of land sitting there doing nothing, when it could be producing meat.

My take on the livestock issue, is mainly that the younger kids have not lived through rough times like the parents did. They simply do not have a real need for more money. Wife works, farming is play time for almost all my local neighbors. Farm does not even have to pay the power or phone bill, her paycheck does. I mean this in kindness, it is simply what I see all around me. A few other reasons I see:

1. It takes work and today, most are against that.

2. Why raise animals when you do not financially have to?

3. If I have a bad year, dad has a lot of equity and will bail me out.

4. I need that winter trip after all the hard work of sitting in machinery that drives itself, for a few hundred hours.

5. BSE

6. No money in cattle/sheep, whatever. Trouble is, some of us DO see money. It is like anything else, some make good money, others point at sask ag and food figures as though they are gospel, and a guarantee to lose money. It helps no one to have those "fact" sheets that invariably show losses. The key here is knowing your numbers, not theirs.

7. There is a lack of initiative to try new things. You do not have to farm livestock like it is 1954 any more, there are a lot more options open with feeds/grazing etc. Kids do not know that.

8. It takes time to build a flock/herd. Staying power is essential. Grain is easy, in 90 days, you grow a crop. It is an instant gratification world today. Tying oneself down to YEARS is not attractive to most.

9. There is little historical knowledge. When the older guys sold the cows, the up and comers were often in diapers, and have no clue about what it is even like to have animals. The dads do not encourage it, because they would have to build fences again, Buy balers, etc., and so the kids do not even know it is an option. The dads don't make it an option. Balers are expensive don'tcha know! They are like 60 000 new, son! While the cheap 600 000 dollar combines sit in the cheap 400 by 100 shed! lol

10. Get bigger, bigger bigger. Farming has always been about getting bigger land bases. Livestock, especially some types bucks this trend. It is engrained in us from a young age that unless you farm a certain way, or have a certain acreage, or have a semi or three and grain carts and auto steer and variable rate, and independent opener drills, farming is impossible. DO NOT EVEN TRY it! No one talks about the goat lady who sells goat kids for a killing, off of 80 acres, and makes her entire living off that land base. Or the guy growing garlic on 12 acres who makes more that most grain farmers do. About the alpaca farmer who on a quarter of land, does just fine, owns a store that sells their wares, and is adding 500% value to the raw product. No one talks about the very comfortable 700 acre grain farmer who runs 30 year old machinery, and is a millionaire. It is not sexy, it is not usual, so most kid farmers laugh at those types rather than ask questions and try marketing.

11. Grain farming is sexy, millions of dollars of equipment is sexy. Telling people you farm 23 000 acres is sexy. We all know the drill. When ppl find out you farm, they immediately ask you, how much, as if this is all that matters in the world. Saying 800 acres is not sexy.

Nov 24, 2017 | 21:23
19
All the years we had cattle, except toward end, used to think that grain farmers got a better deal from governments.
Crow freight rates, wheat board prices guaranteed, crop nsurance support and more.
More recently, Agristability is a disincentive to diversification.
Decision to get out of cattle was two fold, lack of profitability and trying to do justice to more than one enterprise
Do have a problem with some land not suited to grain farming. Do not want to sell it since it is surrounded by other land we farm. Cost and upkeep of fences, along with crop damage when cattle do get out, has been a problem, even when they were our own cattle.

Dec 5, 2017 | 14:50
20
Livestock and mixed farming making huge comeback in australia over last 5 years. wools good lamb is good and beef whilst the heat has gone out of the market is still good.
Dairy industry is struggling