Most responses have been in support of a new system that is easier for us to maintain, some have expressed resistance to change, and I haven't heard anything from thousands of subscribers (not sure what to make of that). Anyway, we will move forward with the creation of a new system of delivering up-to-date news to you and will consider any comments or suggestions you may have. Please feel free to drop me a line at jlovett@ku.edu or use our online forums (http://www.MonarchWatch.org/forums/) to let us know your thoughts. Thanks and stay tuned! - Jim

1) Status of the Population

Monarchs are doing well. The overwintering monarch population in Mexico measured 6.87 hectares, a little below average but good numbers just the same. Last September I predicted that the number of hectares represented by all sites combined would be 6.5 hectares. So, I was close, closer than I've been before. My estimates are based on all the input we receive during the summer from observers around the country and from reading the environmental tea leaves; i.e., the temperatures and drought indexes recorded in different portions of the country. For example, it was evident that the extreme temperatures and drought from the Dakotas to western Michigan in July and August were likely to lead to a decline in the population in those areas and that was the case. Extreme conditions such as these limit the longevity of the adult butterflies and therefore reduce what ecologists call the Òrealized fecundityÓ. Butterflies are often nectar-limited, meaning that adult survival and reproduction is dependent on the availability of nectar. In drought conditions nectar can become quite scarce. Fortunately, the monarch population in the eastern portion of the country was excellent with many observers claiming that there were more monarchs than at any time in the last 30 to 40 years. Without the contribution of these eastern monarchs to the overwintering populations, monarch numbers in Mexico would have been quite low.

The monarchs wintered well in Mexico. There were few killing temperatures and the condition of the butterflies we observed in early March, as some of the monarchs began to move north, was excellent - perhaps the best I've seen. Returning migrant monarchs arrived in Texas on time. The temperatures experienced by the returning monarchs in March and early April appear to be important, with high temperatures usually leading to lower populations the next winter. The temperatures were high this March in Texas but April was much colder than normal and the conditions in April and May favored survival and rapid dispersal of the first generation monarchs moving north during those months. The result has been an unusually large number of sightings in northern Minnesota and from Thunder Bay to Saskatoon in Canada. In fact, there were so many monarchs moving across Lake Superior in early June that some drown and washed up on the shore near Duluth.

Reports from the Michigan/Illinois axis eastward have been fewer and less positive. Evidently, relatively small numbers of monarchs moved into the northeast with the initial wave of first generation monarchs but they were so few that many observers missed them. Further, eggs and larvae proved to be scarce in most of this region, the one possible exception being western New York where good numbers of monarchs have been reported.

Given the spring conditions in Texas and the fact that the butterflies did not appear to get a good start in the eastern half of the northern breeding area it seems unlikely that the overwintering population this year will be greater than 8 hectares. Actually, it is more likely to be in the 5-7 hectare range and could be even lower if the temperatures in the East North Central region of the country (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) reach into the high nineties and low hundreds as they did last year.

So, here is the monarch forecast for July: expect low to moderate numbers from eastern Ohio and eastward through New England; moderate to good numbers are expected from eastern Ohio west through Illinois and eastern Wisconsin; good to excellent numbers should be found in western Wisconsin to the Dakotas; numbers in the eastern Dakotas should be normal to above normal. Right or wrong, those are my predictions. If I'm wrong, I'll know I've read the environmental tea leaves incorrectly.

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2) Monarch Tagging Kits

The monarch tags for the 2007 tagging season have been ordered and should arrive shortly. We will assemble the tagging kits and begin shipping tags during or before the first week of August to everyone that has already ordered them.

If you have not yet placed your tag order for the fall please do so as soon as possible. As you may already know, we have a limited number of tags and they are issued on a first-come, first-served basis until we run out (which we do almost every year).

Tagging Kits (item#121239 and/or 121240) are available via the Monarch Watch Shop at

Some of you have heard my elevator speech about habitat loss Ð 6,000 acres per day, 2.2 million acres per year (an area greater than the states of Rhode Island and Delaware combined). In the 15 years of Monarch Watch, we have lost 34 million acres of habitat, an area nearly equal to the land -mass of Illinois. As you know, I use these statistics to justify the necessity value of creating Monarch Waystations:

However, this advocacy extends to other critters as well, particularly pollinators, an essential but diverse, group of organisms that pollinate an estimated 80% of the natural vegetation and that are responsible, primarily through the pollination services of honey bees, for the production of 90 fruit, nut and vegetable crops in this country. They put food on our table Ð almost a third of it. We have to protect them to sustain our ecosystems and ourselves. Accordingly, I have been active in an organization known as the North American Pollinator Protection Campaign (NAPPC).

You may have never heard of NAPPC (though I have mentioned it in previous updates) but this is a rather remarkable organization. They were the lead organization in support of a study of the status of the pollinators conducted by the National Academy of Science. They were also able to convince the Senate to designate 24-30 June as National Pollinator Week and the U.S. Postal Service to produce a set of stamps to commemorate pollinators. In addition, this organization has had a positive role in supporting legislation to provide funds to examine to examine "colony collapse disorder" (CCD) of honeybees that has been so much in the news recently. Amazingly, NAPPC has just signed Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) to protect pollinator habitat on over a billion acres of Federal land.

My recent role in this organization has been trying to draw the attention of the public to the valuable activities of NAPPC and to the necessity of conserving pollinators, of which monarchs are one. To accomplish this objective, relative to National Pollinator Week, I asked Stan Herd (an internationally known crop artist) if he would create a large crop art facsimile of one of the pollinator stamps. Stan agreed and you can follow the trials and tribulations of this project at http://www.pollinator.org/Crop_art_update.htm.

I tell my students it's all connected, that there are no separate parts out there and that our job is to keep all the parts working. It's in our best interest to do so. If we protect monarchs, we protect other pollinators and if we protect native pollinators, we protect honey bees as well. Let's keep it all working.

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4) Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers

As many of you already know, we have developed a new environmental monitoring program - a fine scale temperature monitoring system for your Monarch Waystation, school butterfly garden, classroom rearing area, or other habitats using Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers.

Our Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers are small, relatively inexpensive, programmable recording temperature sensors. These reusable devices have a long battery life and can be used to record temperatures at defined intervals for days, weeks or even months. These characteristics make the loggers an idea tool for specific applications, such as determining growing degree days for monarchs and milkweeds as well as other insects and plants. Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers have great potential in environmental education. They can be used in phenology studies, to illustrate microclimates, and to measure the temperatures of nests, burrows, etc.

Monarch development is driven by temperature and it is likely that the size of the monarch population from year to year is determined by the temperature and rainfall experienced by monarchs throughout the breeding season.

One objective of the Monarch Watch Temperature Monitoring Program is to create a network of monitoring stations throughout the monarch breeding area. The data from each logger may used to estimate the number of degree days (and therefore the number of monarch generations) throughout the season. Collectively, the data from the network will be used to map the number of monarch generations by latitude and longitude across the country. These data will give us a better understanding of the factors that govern monarch populations.

We have three objectives for the use of Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers this year: (1) To relate temperatures to the rate of growth of monarch immature stages. The goal is to determine the growth rate of monarchs in the field and to compare these values with those predicted by the laboratory model for monarch growth rates; (2) to establish the growing degree days for perennial milkweeds from the time the first shoots emerge from the ground until the first flower opens; and (3) to create a nationwide network of Monarch Watch Temperature Logger users who can help us establish the thermal environment experienced by monarchs throughout the breeding season.

A new website for monarchs has been created by the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, the North American Pollinator Protection Campaign, and Bureau of Land Management. Numerous monarch specialists and interest groups contributed to this endeavor as well. Check it out at:

As most of you know, Lincoln Brower (emeritus professor of the University of Florida, who now works out of Sweet Briar College in Virginia) is the preeminent monarch specialist in the world. His numerous papers on monarch biology span 50 years. His strong advocacy for monarch conservation, particularly of the area of the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico, has no parallel and there is no question but that ÒLincÓ, as I know him, has had a critical role in sustaining the monarch population. In recognition of his many contributions, a symposium in his honor will be held as part of the 5th International Conference on the Biology of Butterflies to be held on the 2-7th of July at a villa outside of Rome, Italy (http://biobutterfly2007.uniroma2.it). Speakers at the symposium include Karen Oberhasuer, Sonia Altizer, Myron Zalucki, Steve Malcolm , Richard Vane-Wright, M. Boppre, Andy Brower, Linda Fink and myself, Chip Taylor. In the capstone presentation, Lincoln will present a talk entitled ÒA half century journey with the monarch butterflyÓ.

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7) North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) and Monarchs

Although focused primarily on trade, NAFTA also addresses environmental concerns shared by Canada, the United States and Mexico through the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC). Some of you may recall that the 1997 monarch conclave held Mexico was underwritten in part and largely coordinated by the CEC.

The CEC, consisting of the environment ministers of Canada, Mexico and the United States, and members of the Council of the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, met in Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico, on the 27th of June 2007. One of the results of this meeting was a resolution in support of Trinational cooperation to conserve the monarch butterfly and promote sustainable local livelihoods. This resolution (PDF file) can be found at

Monarch Watch (http://www.MonarchWatch.org) is a not-for-profit educational outreach program based at the University of Kansas. We manage several educational, conservation and research programs - focusing on the monarch butterfly, its habitat and the spectacular fall monarch migration.