Titanic was not 'unlucky'. Iceberg risk is greater today

The risk of sailing into an iceberg is far higher now that when
the Titanic sank, a team of Earth systems scientists have said. And
it's only going to get worse.

The team, from the University of Sheffield, has published a
study in the journal Weather, disputing long-held theories that when the
legendary ship hit an iceberg on 14 April it was "unlucky".

It had been speculated that highly unusual and rare lunar and
solar activity had contributed to there being an unusually high
number of icebergs in the North Atlantic the night of the
collision. In 2012, a team of astronomers from Texas State
University-San Marcos calculated that on 4 January 1912 the Moon and the Sun
lined up in a particular and rare manner, causing their
gravitational pulls to instigate a "spring tide". Further to this,
the timing of the events, and the positioning of the Moon -- it
approached close to the Sun the day before -- all coincided to make
the scenario even more rare and unusual.

The unusually high tide, the team suggested, caused icebergs
that had become frozen in place en route from Greenland to break
free and continue their journey. This is what created the unusually
challenging obstacle course of icebergs for the Titanic to
manoeuvre around.

The Sheffield team says this is not the case -- the Titanic was
not particularly unlucky to have these elements coincide to
generate a glut of obstacles. In fact, looking at records of
identified iceberg sightings from the early 20th Century, the
team found that the numbers in 1912 were significant but not
extreme. Today, we are far more at risk.

"We have seen that 1912 was a year of raised iceberg hazard, but
not exceptionally so in the long term," commented professor Grant
Bigg of Sheffield's Geography department. "1909 recorded a slightly
higher number of icebergs and more recently the risk has been much
greater -- between 1991 and 2000 eight of the ten years recorded
more than 700 icebergs and five exceeded the 1912 total."

The paper explains that the iceberg that sunk the ship most
likely left Greenland in autumn 2011, and was due to an "enhanced
precipitation-melting balance" over Greenland in the previous
years.

The paper goes on to point to the real and present danger posed
today. Since the Titanic sank, measures have been put in place to
record the locations of the icy giants. Despite this, in 2007 the
MV Explorer smashed into one near Antarctica and sunk, and the MS
Fram collided with another in 2008. Most recently the team points
to the 2011 sinking of a Russian fishing boat. Though none came
with the drama of the Titanic sinking, it's a warning sign and is
hugely relevant as shipping companies grow more and more bold,
accessing the Arctic Northern Passage to cut down on fuel costs and
transport times from Russia to Asia as the ice melts earlier and
earlier. China sent its first vessel across the route in 2012, and
Germany and Russia habitually use it.

"As use of the Arctic, in particular, increases in the future
with the declining sea ice the ice hazard will increase in waters
not previously used for shipping," comment the authors in the
Weather paper. "As polar ice sheets are increasingly
losing mass as well, the iceberg risk is likely to increase in the
future, rather than decline."

We obviously have far better data and sensors, with some of the
largest icebergs actively tracked. The Titanic was also,
unfortunately, travelling too fast to turn in time, against
recommendations.