PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

MUST-KNOW STORY LINES

Indiana has (almost) all the right ingredients. The Hoosiers haven’t won the Big Ten regular season since 2002, their longest such drought since an 18-year stretch that ended in 1953. That could change this year. IU has the size, shooting and experience and needs only to improve its defense.

Nobody has a bigger hole to fill than Michigan State. Draymond Green was the Spartans’ best scorer and rebounder and singular leader as a senior. Filling his spot is like trying to fill three jobs at once. That’s why we have the Spartans ranked behind some teams with less talent, but this team could still be Final Four-good.

Wisconsin has the best defender you’ll never notice. Jared Berggren blocks some shots here and there (1.7 per game last season), but mostly he uses his lower-body strength to knock opposing big men out of scoring position. It’s thankless work, but it’s essential for the Badgers, who ranked first in scoring defense last season, allowing an average of 53.2 points per game.

The league’s most valuable player is at Penn State. But it’ll be hard for point guard Tim Frazier to be all-conference if his team wins only four conference games. If the Lions somehow get to seven, Frazier, who averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds last season, might beat out Cody Zeller for player of the year.

There’s a breakout candidate at Minnesota. A 6-1 scoring guard for the Gophers, Andre Hollins tore through his final nine games of last season with an average of 16.7 points—after hitting double figures just five times previously. Hey, he was only a freshman.

Northwestern’s window to its first NCAA bid isn’t closed. The end of forward John Shurna’s great career hurts, and the year-long suspension of JerShon Cobb stings. But the Wildcats have played without Cobb before. Three top scorers return, and there are enough new bigs to give the team a shot at a passable inside game.

John Groce will get it done at Illinois. He already has pulled off his most impressive coaching feat: Landing a BCS-level job out of the preternaturally balanced MAC. He’ll figure out how to win with the Illini—it’ll just take some time.

Iowa is the league’s most dangerous team. The Hawkeyes are young, they’re athletic, they play a breakneck style relatively foreign to the Big Ten, and they’re a tough out at home. It would be no shock if Iowa were to break past some of the traditional powers.

Will Tim Hardaway Jr.’s hard work pay off? After hitting 28.3 percent on 3s last season, Hardaway put hours into perfecting his technique. He drives the ball fine and needs that in his game, but he’s not dynamic enough for the NBA without a more reliable shot.

Nebraska isn’t that far away. Hiring Tim Miles could put the Huskers on course to contend within a few years. Nobody has better facilities than Nebraska, and Miles won at both North Dakota State and Colorado State.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Cody Zeller, Indiana. One thing no one has talked much about in regard to Zeller: What happens when he gets really strong? He had only a few months of college-level weight training before his freshman year. When hard work and maturity advance his body toward manhood, the combination of his natural speed and developed skill along with that physical power should make him a dreadful challenge to stop. It’s not certain yet how much of that process will happen in time for it to matter for the Hoosiers. If he’s a physical force this season, IU has a chance to be dominant.

ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

PG - Aaron Craft, Jr., Ohio State. Don’t be surprised if his scoring average jumps by as much as a half-dozen points from last season’s 8.8. If it’s what OSU needs, that’s what’ll happen.

PG - Trey Burke, Soph., Michigan. A star as a freshman after being moderately recruited, Burke surprised even his coaches with his excellence.

PF - Trevor Mbakwe, Sr., Minnesota. The only not-sure thing about Mbakwe is whether he’ll be fully healthy after another major knee injury.

PF - Deshaun Thomas, Jr., Ohio State. He is so versatile that there’s no tougher player to defend in college basketball.

C - Cody Zeller, Soph., Indiana

BEST OF THE BIG TEN

Shooter: Jordan Hulls, Indiana

Passer: Tim Frazier, Penn State

Penetrator: Tim Frazier, Penn State

Shot-blocker: Jared Berggren, Wisconsin

Leader: Tim Frazier, Penn State

Defender: Aaron Craft, Ohio State

NBA prospect: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Freshman: Yogi Ferrell, Indiana

Rebounder: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota

Transfer: D.J. Newbill, Penn State (from Southern Miss)

Coach: Tom Izzo, Michigan State

Recruiter: Tom Crean, Indiana

Home-court advantage: Kohl Center, Wisconsin

FIVE BIGGEST GAMES

Dec. 31 - Indiana at Iowa. With what amounted to a .500 team, Iowa was 14-6 at Carver-Hawkeye last year. This Big Ten opener represents a chance at a huge score.

Jan. 22 - Michigan State at Wisconsin. Bo Ryan had MSU’s number for a while, but the Spartans have won four of the last five, including two overtime games.

Feb. 5 - Ohio State at Michigan. What could be better than “That State Up North” vs. “Ohio”? It’s always a football rivalry first, but there’s room for more.

Feb. 12 - Michigan at Michigan State. The Spartans have won 12 of the past 13 meetings at the Breslin Center—but just one of the past two.

March 10 - Indiana at Michigan. It’s possible the Big Ten title will be decided before the final weekend. Even if it is, you’ll still want to watch.