Family Research Council poll of Missouri: Akin 45, McCaskill 42

posted at 3:21 pm on August 29, 2012 by Allahpundit

Given that they’re among his biggest (i.e. few) supporters, this is roughly as credible as an internal poll. But since we’re in a holding pattern news-wise until Ryanpalooza erupts at the convention tonight, let’s toss it out there.

That’s not to say Akin hasn’t sustained damage: his personal image is weak, with 44 percent of voters having a favorable impression of him and 50 percent having an unfavorable impression. But he still leads McCaskill by 10 points among independent voters and in the conservative-leaning state, Akin wins about the same percentage of Republicans (78 percent) that McCaskill wins among Democrats (82 percent.)…

“Despite the firestorm of news in the Senate race over the past few weeks, most voters have already made up their mind in the race, the survey shows,” [pollster Fritz] Wenzel writes. “The fact that 80% said they were firm in their choice certainly indicates that this is a race that will be decided more by ideology and turnout efforts by the campaigns and less by breaking news that flashes across the news pages and cable news channels.”…

The Family Research Council poll was conducted by Wenzel Strategies from Aug. 27 to Aug. 28, testing 829 voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.38 percent. The sample was 32.7 percent Democrats, 34.1 percent Republicans and 33.2 percent independents.

Missouri must be a tough state for political pros to predict turnout. Four years ago, with Hopenchange fee-vah running wild, it was D+6; eight years ago, for Bush vs. Kerry, it was R+1. Romney should win the state comfortably this time regardless, but I wonder if Akin’s hurt himself just enough with Republicans to suppress turnout to the point where it’s fatal to his chances. If he’d kept his mouth shut, maybe he’d have been looking at R+2 for his race. As it is, who knows? R+1? Even?

[S]ources close to Akin acknowledge that he is monitoring developments in the race, including campaign donations and his standing in the polls, and that it isn’t out of the question he will change his mind.

Should Akin decide that his sliding poll numbers — he now trails McCaskill by ten points and many of his own supporters want him to exit the race — dictate dropping out, he will certainly want a say in who replaces him. John Brunner, a wealthy businessman, and Sarah Steelman, a former state treasurer, both challenged him in the GOP primary and are viewed as unacceptable by Akin forces. On the other hand, Wagner is respected in the Akin camp and a sufficiently conservative presence to satisfy Tea Party members who are suspicious of anyone the Missouri GOP establishment might anoint…

“It’s clunky, but it would work so long as it doesn’t look like a back-room deal,” one Akin supporter who is a Missouri delegate told me. “Todd would be treated with dignity and could go back to the House and we would have a candidate with very strong skills who could beat McCaskill.”

Roy Blunt also said this morning that he still thinks Akin will quit, but I’m not sure he himself quite believes it. Supposedly people are leaning on Huckabee too to get him to change his mind and nudge Akin towards the exit. I don’t think that’s out of the question, actually: Huckabee may be framing this as a “Mount Carmel moment” now, but if the polls still look awful for Akin in two weeks, he’s going to get nervous about being held responsible for almost singlehandedly propping this guy up on the way to defeat. That’d be a major black mark on his record ahead of 2016, and he’s already got enough of those (the latest being his endorsement of Dewhurst over Cruz). That’s what this FRC poll is all about, I assume — reassuring social conservatives who might be wavering in light of the recent gruesome polls from Missouri that Akin’s hanging in there.

Two new ads for you below, one from the man himself and one from the Susan B. Anthony List that’s set to run in Missouri. Reminds me a bit of Romney’s Medicare strategy after picking Ryan: Now that the conversation has changed, the best defense is a good offense.

Blowback

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I despise Claire McCaskill. She is much more of an embarrassment and threat to individual freedoms than Todd Akin could ever be. I will vote for Todd Akin because of her voting record over the last six years and her support of Obama’s policies.

Ann Wagner is a RINO extraordinaire. She was the GOP MO Chairman. Very few authentic teapartiers are enamored of her. She represents everything about the status quo. The state party has very few, if any, stateswomen/men. MO has a Republican majority and still have trouble finding a unified voice.

The way the national party treated this issue is a microcosm of how the state party treats grassroots activists. If you don’t follow the party line, you are toast. I am part of an email thread and those Republicans who tend to lean libertarian and true conservative are LIVID with the treatment of Akin.

This Akin scenario played out like the caucus did in St. Charles county earlier this year between Romney, Pawlenty and Paul delegates. The caucus was run by the established county group protecting the establishment candidates. It turned out to be quite a mess and embarrassment:

Look, unless you live in this state, you can’t understand how dysfunctional our politicians and Republican committees are in Missouri. There is a fight for the soul of the Republican party here and many people will vote for Akin just to tell the entrenched party officials what they think about their removal of support from a candidate receiving the most votes in a primary.

I think he will still win. A massive Romney turnout coupled with the fact the libtard is a nasty POS, the conservatives and center right indies in that state do not want her to win another 6 years and will hold their noses at the polls.

A despicable man. His only “principles” is related to his own hubris. He’s perfectly willing to see the country go down the tubes for his singular ambition. And please don’t tell me it has anything to do with abortion. His opponents both opposed abortion. And he was elected with Democrat cross-overs and millions in dog-whistle Democrat commercials.

I really don’t know what to make of all these polls–PPP(D) showing Akin 1 point ahead after his gaffe, Rasmussen showing him 10 points down, or this Family Research Council poll showing him 3 points up.

The PPP poll did have a Republican-heavy sample, but it’s possible that Rasmussen was the outlier here, because it also showed Obama leading Romney by 1 point, whereas Romney has led in MO by 6-7 points in most other polls. The Rasmussen poll could have been taken when reaction to Akin’s gaffe was reaching its peak, but after Akin insisted on staying in this race, MO voters (especially Republicans) might now be reconciling themselves to the possibility that Akin might be the lesser of the evils against McCaskill.

The pro-life FRC might have a vested interest in skewing the sample to support Akin, but R+1.4 is not out of the question in Missouri.

Still, Reince Priebus and the RNC are right to withhold money from Akin prior to the deadline, with the hope that another untarnished candidate might jump in and take what should be a slam-dunk seat for the Republicans. The money would be better spent helping other Republicans in competetive races, such as Mendel in OH, Allen in VA, McMahon in CT, Hoekstra in MI, Rehberg in MT, and Mack in FL.

That SBA ad is GREAT, and should be run in other swing states to counteract Obama’s “war on women” theme. The young woman in this ad is attractive and pleasant–a real shame if Obama had allowed her to die as a baby! Is Obama at war with this sweet young lady?

“My name is Norma McCorvey. I’m sorry to admit that I’m the Jane Roe of Roe v. Wade. The affidavit submitted to the Supreme Court didn’t happen the way I said it did, pure and simple. I lied! Sarah Weddington and Linda Coffey needed an extreme case to make their client look pitiable. Rape seemed to be the ticket. What made rape even worse? A gang rape! It all started out as a little lie, but my little lie grew and became more horrible with each telling.”

Reince Priebus is a genius who fooled us all. He said RNC will not give Akin any money but he left the possibility of PAC buys on the table. If the polls show The Toad within striking distance of Air Claire, they’ll flood the airwaves with negative ads. Sometimes, “if you think I’m ugly you gotta see my sister” strategy works in GOP’s favor.

Today, there is a PPP poll that had Murphy up by 4, but the party breakdown has a +21 D overweight. There is a MOE of 3.3 and Murphy’s favorability was 39 compared to McMahon’s 45.

So the PPP poll may actually be confirming results from Q poll and Ras.

bayview on August 29, 2012 at 4:44 PM

The PPP(D) poll in CT is definitely skeweD. Voter registration in CT is 33% D, 22% R, and 45% I, while the PPP(D) split is 46% D, 25% R, 29% I. If McMahon is getting all the Republicans in the sample, she is also getting at least 19% from Indies and Democrats, which would work out to 65% of the Indies in the sample, while Murphy gets only 2% more than the Democrats in the sample.

If the electorate was proportional to registration, and McMahon got 65% of Indies, she would be at 45(I) * 0.65 + 22(R) = 51% without getting any Democrat votes. Taking into account the skew in the sample, this poll looks very good for McMahon.

Reince Priebus is a genius who fooled us all. He said RNC will not give Akin any money but he left the possibility of PAC buys on the table. If the polls show The Toad within striking distance of Air Claire, they’ll flood the airwaves with negative ads. Sometimes, “if you think I’m ugly you gotta see my sister” strategy works in GOP’s favor.

Todd Akin does have one thing going for him…people in Missouri do not like Claire McCaskill. And he might pull this out..the problem is that if he does it will be in spite of his own big mouth..it should never have even been close.

And while Todd’s people can rag on Republicans all they want, they need to keep in mind that unless Todd Akin turns into a Democrat he will have to caucus with that party. They will have to find a way to tolerate each other.

Look, unless you live in this state, you can’t understand how dysfunctional our politicians and Republican committees are in Missouri…

manateespirit on August 29, 2012 at 4:21 PM

This Missourian sure agrees with that statement…

I’m concerned about Akin… I believe he’s already done damage to the pro-life cause. I know a few pro-life gals who are aghast at the prospect of Senator Akin. Who can guess what more damage he may do during a 6 year term if, somehow, he’s elected?

I will state it again…as much of a kultz and fool Akin is, he is still better for the country than the dem.

Unless you feels someone who is misguided, or just plain stupid, about women, is worse as a congress person than someone who is right about women but wrong on employment, government intrusion, foreign policy, energy policy, education, entitlements, etc.

You see, he will vote Republican, he will follow the party line, and that is worth more than a democrat who is better and smarter at women’s reproduction…

We didn’t get into this economic mess because someone is stupid about women…we got here because of liberal political ideological policies.

Should Akin decide that his sliding poll numbers — he now trails McCaskill by ten points and many of his own supporters want him to exit the race — dictate dropping out, he will certainly want a say in who replaces him.

Then he needs to GtFO, now. the longer he waits, the more he pisses us off, and the less leverage he has.

I also am a Missourian. If anyone asks at this point for a poll I am voting for a nice Dieffenbachia over Akin.

The thought that we would elect him just because his opponent is so toxic and reward his hubris with a senate seat, fully expecting that he is going to see it as some ordainment from God that he is the chosen one or some such makes me just sick. The man has proved that he cares more about himself than anything else (at least anything else earthly).

But there it is. If he is still the GOP candidate against McCaskill on the 6th I’ll vote for him. I’ll feel sick and hate that my choices are a D-bag or a crap-sammich, but I’ll vote for him, but then I’m voting for Romney too so meh…

Jim Talent seems like the best replacement candidate since he narrowly lost to Claire in 2006. It would be “righting” a wrong. He’s already on Romney’s economic team, Heritage etc. If NJ dems could get Torricelli replaced with that geezer Frank Lautenberg, Missouri Republicans should be able to persuade Talent. The senate is at stake.

Rape and possibility of a pregnancy after being raped will effect far fewer people than Obama’s policies like Obamacare.

melle1228 on August 29, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I get the impression that some are more angry at Akin than Obama and his rape of the Constitution. Akin can recover from his remark, but I’m not sure we can recover from what Obama has done. It will be much harder if McCaskill wins, that’s a given.

Is there such a thing as negative coattails? From Obama and the Democrats, I mean. I’m starting to wonder if that same kind of anger that was directed at Bush and got Obama in is going to work for just about anyone with an (R) next to their name in 2012.

I don’t believe the poll. Mckankill (sp) has the dems voting for him so he won’t want to be replaced. The dems first language is lie, lie, lie. Just like a young Egyption student told me one day that you lie and then turn around and do the opposite. (He was speaking about female teachers, but I don’t think it was limited to them.)

Wow. It’s like a Romney mirror image. Lots of people who would rather lose than see Akin win.

Where are all the lectures about gritting your teeth and voting for the lesser of two evils?

As for the poll, how good it is depends on how it’s done and measured, not who did it.

I’m honestly not surprised to see this result. For all the furor over Akin’s comments, most of the outrage was over sentiments that people put in his mouth, like claims of “magic vag1nas” and “rape victims never get pregnant” and “anyone who gets pregnant by rape is lying.”

I haven’t seen so many hysterical reactions in a while.

I don’t know how good the poll is, and even if accurate, it’s still too soon to predict this one. But all the claims of perfect certainty that Akin was dead in the water and the seat was lost just might be an indicator that some crystal balls are a little spastic.

The problem with Akin is that, the further he advances his career, the more his increased stature is likely to make him a drag on the pro-life movement.

If he is somehow elected to the Senate, he’ll be a bigger negative for the cause of life.

Oh, how I wish he would step aside…

shinty on August 29, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Akin made the first mistake when he said this: “From what I understand from doctors,….” Do you know how many different opinions from Doctors one can get on any subject? Many, believe me.
He was answering from what some doctor(s) told him. He has since apologized.

Perhaps it would be beneficial to inquire if any of those that endorsed him if they have changed their mind since his mistake.
Todd Akin endorsed by: Phyllis Schlafly, Missouri Right to Life PAC, Mike Huckabee, David Barton,
Michelle Bachmann, Steve King (IA), Jim Gilchrist-Minuteman, Jim Hensarling (TX), Pete Sessions (TX),
Jim Jordan (OH), 14 State of MO Senators & Representatives.

Huckabee may be framing this as a “Mount Carmel moment” now, but if the polls still look awful for Akin in two weeks, he’s going to get nervous about being held responsible for almost singlehandedly propping this guy up on the way to defeat.

Then so be it. I think Huck is either in it to sabotage our chances of winning this November, or he’s utterly delusional.

Huckabee appears to be the only one out of that list who is still PUBLICLY backing Achin’. Obviously others out of that list have either renounced their support, or will no longer publicly campaign for him.

I think pro-life advocates have now regrouped and are going on the offense to highlight the hypocrisy of Roe v. Wade and Whoopi Goldberg, Obama’s extremism and to underscore the value of all children.

Jill Stanek mentions Roe v. Wade as does Rebecca Kiessling:

Women Who Cried Wolf — the illegitimate rape claim behind Roe v Wade

…the very foundation for the landmark U.S. Supreme Court case which legalized abortion in the U.S. – the false rape claim by Norma McCorvey — Jane Roe in Roe v Wade. This is her testimony on January 21, 1998, before the Subcommittee on the Constitution, Federalism, and Property Rights of the Senate Judiciary Committee:

“My name is Norma McCorvey. I’m sorry to admit that I’m the Jane Roe of Roe v. Wade. The affidavit submitted to the Supreme Court didn’t happen the way I said it did, pure and simple. I lied! Sarah Weddington and Linda Coffey needed an extreme case to make their client look pitiable. Rape seemed to be the ticket. What made rape even worse? A gang rape! It all started out as a little lie, but my little lie grew and became more horrible with each telling.”

The largest illegitimate rape claim ever perpetrated in the history of our nation was the foundation for the filing of Roe v Wade, which led to abortion on demand in our country!

Kiessling herself was conceived by rape and given up for adoption. Within this account she tells some of her own story. It’s enthralling reading.

This article describes some pro-life political work she has done with two others who comprise “exceptions” for abortion on demand: rape, incest and handicapped.

INC on August 29, 2012 at 4:10 PM

How dare you sir! No one ever lied about rape! ALL RAPE IS LEGITIMATE RAPE!!

Wait, let me rephrase that…..

Seriously, what this shows is that even at the beginning of the abortion debate, the left callously used claims of rape to try to manipulate public opinion on their side. They’re pulling the same stunt here, and people are still falling for it.

Pregnancy resulting from rape is still rare. Akin tried too hard to make that point, but he’s still more right on the subject of rape than a whole lot of the people calling him a moron who’s an idiot on science.

That is:
– most rapes do not result in pregnancy. For that matter, most normal sexual encounters don’t result in pregnancy. Why in the world would people expect rapes to be more successful?
– most abortions are not caused by rape The numbers alone should tell you that 30,000 reported rapes a year divided by 1,500,000 abortions a year would only be 2.5% of the abortions even if every rape resulted in a pregnancy and every such pregnancy led to an abortion.
– even if you believe abortion is permissible in case of rape, it’s still true that the unborn baby is bearing the punishment that rightfully belongs to the rapist. In fact, since rape doesn’t carry the death penalty, the unborn baby is bearing a much stiffer punishment.

Even if you completely reject the claim that forcible rape is less likely to lead to pregnancy due to the stress and trauma of the rape, the points above are still true.

The fact that SoCons are still defending (and even encouraging) this guy tells you everything – I guess he really didn’t say anything that they really think was wrong or have a disagreement with now, did he?

The fact that SoCons are still defending (and even encouraging) this guy tells you everything – I guess he really didn’t say anything that they really think was wrong or have a disagreement with now, did he?

JFS61 on August 29, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Looks to me like a clear case of hysteria, with RINOs lining up to claim he said something ten times worse than what he actually said.

Huckabee appears to be the only one out of that list who is still PUBLICLY backing Achin’. Obviously others out of that list have either renounced their support, or will no longer publicly campaign for him.

Myron Falwell on August 29, 2012 at 7:42 PM

I wouldn’t assume anything, one way or the other regarding others. Only they would be able to answer that.

Looks to me like a clear case of hysteria, with RINOs lining up to claim he said something ten times worse than what he actually said.

tom on August 29, 2012 at 8:17 PM

No, what he said was plenty bad. It’s just not true that women “have a way to shut that whole thing down”. Now he’s the candidate who doesn’t understand the biology of conception, reinforcing the meme that Republicans are anti-science.

Looks to me like a clear case of hysteria, with RINOs lining up to claim he said something ten times worse than what he actually said.

tom on August 29, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Thanks for making my point.

JFS61 on August 29, 2012 at 8:25 PM

If what he said was so very, very toxic, then why the need to exaggerate what he said?

If you’re right on the merits, then you don’t have to make up new supporting facts or exaggerate.

Unfortunately, a lot of the reaction has less to do with Todd Akin and more to do with distaste for social conservatives. And that’s a point that you make very well yourself, whether you mean to or not.

Unfortunately, a lot of the reaction has less to do with Todd Akin and more to do with distaste for social conservatives. And that’s a point that you make very well yourself, whether you mean to or not.

tom on August 29, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The chip on your shoulder is obscuring your vision. His being a socon is not the problem. Missouri likes socons. They don’t like people who demonstrate that they have no idea how something as common (and essential to the pro-life argument) as conception happens.

Unfortunately, a lot of the reaction has less to do with Todd Akin and more to do with distaste for social conservatives. And that’s a point that you make very well yourself, whether you mean to or not.

tom on August 29, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The chip on your shoulder is obscuring your vision. His being a socon is not the problem. Missouri likes socons. They don’t like people who demonstrate that they have no idea how something as common (and essential to the pro-life argument) as conception happens.

alwaysfiredup on August 29, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Don’t have a chip on my shoulder. I have observed a lot of distaste from certain quarters for social conservatives. If you haven’t observed that yourself, then you need to look a little sharper.

His being a socon is probably not a problem for most of Missouri. That’s exactly why I believe there’s been an over-reaction by many. I doubt this hurts him as bad as they think. There’s a certain amount of projection in assuming that everyone else will react the same way that you do.

A lot of conservatives are going to vote for Mitt, even if they have to grit their teeth to do it. As I think I said in my first comment on this thread, this thread on Akin is almost like a mirror image to how a lot of conservatives feel about Romney. If electing Republicans is so important, then elect one. Don’t be hypocritical.

Oh, and as I have pointed out from time to time, success in politics is a little easier if you can recognize the people who can be your allies.

Akin had a very bad day. One dumbass pseudoscience notion nearly sunk him. Republicans should have ignored the comment, as the lying Hypocrats would have reflexively done. But no. Out comes the self-scouraging flail. WHEN will our Party elite get a clue? But screw it. Here’s my prediction: Akin will win because he is merely stupid, not nefarious.

this thread on Akin is almost like a mirror image to how a lot of conservatives feel about Romney.

There is a profound difference. If we elect Romney instead of Obama, we still get the more conservative candidate into office. As much as we might dislike Romney, he is still clearly the better choice for us, given our conservative POV.

For voters in the middle, Akin being an idiot can actually make him a less desirable candidate than McCaskill. So it is rational for them to switch to the Democrat ….. or at least as rational as being “in the middle” nowadays can be, what with the Democrats aggressively trying to lead us straight into economic catastrophe.

In my opinion, the fear at the NRSC is that support for Akin would give the Democrats ammo that could be used to sink multiple candidates in other states (MA, VA, FL, etc.). The Dems are already trying to use this argument in various races, but the near universal condemnation of Akin by other Republican candidates has thus far made it easily refutable.

This is hilarious. The reason why Repubs are so wacked is that they are terrified of the Dems and most importantly the MSM. Why has the GOP leadership in the House not file for impeachment or stand their ground, simple FEAR. When are we going to learn that GOP cares more about what the MSM has to say than about you or me those who help the GOP win elections.

The sad part is the cut down of FRC on this post. This is an upstanding council that has fought for the family and against abortion on several different fronts. It is a council that does understand integrity and what it means.

It isn’t the FRC that is throwing conservatives under the bus. It is the GOP, MSM, Dem’s, etc. When are we going to stop throwing are own and start supporting our own. The establishment is laughing at this all the while changing the rules to make sure that us grassroots people will have little to no say in 2016.

GOP wants Akin to step down so they can put their “Yes” man/woman in. Was Alaska that long ago that you all forget that? We don’t want a Rep. yes man we need a conservative to stand up against Romney when he ushers in establishment dreams and goals. Akin is the man, get over it.

Akin is a strong pro lifer-Claire just wants to kill more babies. The voters in MO will go with Akin who is a conservative.
You are not givin the MO voters any credit> they will be smartr than you think. They do not want Claire as their Senator-didn’t before the gaff and still don’t Hang in there Mr. Akin.