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Friday, January 23

Sorry, I'm a big Bon Jovi fan. We're getting to the point where we're halfway through the snowy season, and many snow lovers are wondering when winter will begin?! I know Matt just posted a new blog yesterday, but this will either get snow lovers excited, or really, really...not excited. Here are a few stats on where we have been, and where we're going (historically) in Rochester.

First, the "bad" news: typically, in years where our January snowfall has been lacking, we struggle to make it to 70-80" of snow, with 100"+ nearly impossible. I said nearly:

There were the least snowy Januarys since 2000. Lots more data out there. This is just a sampling.

Now onto the "good" news: as Scott showed us, the February-March period has the potential to be quite snowy around these parts. With the lakes (especially Erie) having the tendency to freeze over and limit lake effect later in the winter, it stands to reason that the majority (not all, Lake Ontario still contributes a bit) of snow comes from synoptic systems. Similarly, these are the snowiest February-March periods since 2000:

Something to focus on: 2008 showed up in both of those statistics. We had a relatively non-snowy January, but made up for it in February and March with nearly 4 feet of snow, and ended up with a 100"+ season.

So, you can either look at the rest of the winter in one of two ways: The glass is half empty in the sense that January was kind of a dud, and the rest of the season will follow. Or half full - we may still have quite a bit of snow to come. You and I both know there is no way to predict storms months out or weeks out, even a few days out in some instances! The stats are in front of you - decide how you want to look at them! Have a wonderful weekend and a frigid next week :)

149 comments:

But Stacey, the weenie contingent has already decided that this winter is a disappointment, so clearly we already know that February and March will fail to produce :P

Kind of really annoying that we completely lost next week's clipper. So close, yet still so far away. Oh well, no choice but to move on to the next opportunity, fretting won't change a single thing. I still like early February for a potential critter of interest.

The Sunday/Monday deal history going south. Next week nothing. Next weekend cold air will suppress any possible storm. This is going to be a bad snow winter.75 inches at best and that may be pushing it.

By the way, we had several frigid days in advance of the blizzard of '66. So the intensity of the cold has nothing to do with suppression, it's all about the upper flow and how forcefully it pushes the cold air down.

A very knowledgeable forum goer on Accuweather, who goes by the username Undertakerson, has also been keeping an eye on the GHD period for something. He received this question a moment ago, with edits to make the grammar and spelling less cringeworthy:

"UTS just curious [what you think] regarding this storm, do you think the [arctic] air can act as a suppressing factor??"

This was his full response:

"Chris - in a word, no...

I do have one or two other concerns but suppression is not among them. I hope to get a chance to explain more this weekend.

I am, by nature, conservative, but I am almost all in for this event. Call me foolish, call me half-baked but I laid out my reasons (page 2) and I always stick to my guns because the only thing worse than a busted forecaster is one who will exhaust you by flip flopping all over the place."

He lives in the Harrisburg area so the things he says are definitely relevant to us. There's a thread for that timeframe on Accuweather right now where he goes through his reasoning. There are similarities to my own reasoning, as well as some extra details. I advise everyone to go read through it, you'll find it about a quarter way down the page:

It is funny how relative weather is to the time of year. If this were spring and we had this amount of clear weather (of course the temps would be higher), we would be rejoicing. But because there is no precip this winter, we are bummed.

CCCC when are you talking about a POSSIBLE big storm? If it did pan out would it be next weekend time frame? And what potential are we talking. Say based on current data if everything fell right what would be the strength of the potential storm?

There's no way of knowing anything about the strength of a storm from this far out. For all we know it could end up crashing and burning like all of the other ones. In regards to timing it would be sometime within the first few days of February.

"These two storms will hardly be the last! There may be one late next week, and there's growing concern for one in the East centered on Groundhog Day. And in between, it's going to be much colder than normal throughout the Northeast."

It has happened before...hone in on the final 5 days in particular. Obviously I'm not honking any horns for a repeat of that behemoth, just pointing out that we've been in the deep freeze in advance of significant storms in the past.

We all have that one storm that drew us into being weather enthusiasts. Mine was the lake effect storm of 2000 back when I was just a tiny 4th grader in the Buffalo area. Two feet of snow in eight hours and I spent each and every second of the aftermath digging tunnels through the backyard. Beyond that point I would spend my days searching high and low for the next big one, and only occasionally would I be rewarded. Then I came here for college...still waiting for the next '66 to happen.

Did you just forget about the 7 feet of snow that Buffalo experience a couple of months ago. I remember you posting about being worry for your family, and finally making it home to see them. Though it might not have been in the thick of it while it was snowing -- on some level you did experience it.

If 2" is all winter is going to give us at a time, then I am going to get excited over it rather than complain about it every day of the week. BRING ON THE NEXT TWO INCHES I AM LOOKING TO THROW A SNOW PARTY.

I am hoping for a little LES this next week and some help from a clipper latter in the week, but the way the clippers have currently been tracking I am not going to be holding my breath. The 00Z GFS has a juice Groundhogs Day storm on like CCCC has be hinting at, however the 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z CMC are not currently on board. Still time for hope.

The clipper looks like it may be attempting somewhat of a comeback in recent model runs, with a modest snowfall now appearing on the 12z GFS. Southern New England gets absolutely smoked as the system rapidly intensifies off the coast, enough to actually initiate a bit of lake enhanced snow all the way back here. The Euro and GGEM also hinted at a similar comeback. Nothing really new to say about groundhog day, operational models won't tell us anything truly useful from this lead time. The pattern by then still looks locked and loaded though.

I noticed a bit of irony in me saying "pattern analysis > models" then proceeding to analyze the model runs in the very next sentence I typed. The point was that pattern analysis trumps model runs at a long lead time. Models become far more useful when they begin to lock onto a bona fide storm threat, like what some in the Northeast will be contending with early next week.

I'm not looking for a pronounced surface reflection to show up every run right now. The Euro had a strong low for several consecutive runs before dropping it. It's busy trying to resolve things just like every other model, so it's going to bounce around for several more days before beginning to hone in. Hopefully it hones in on a storm for us as opposed to continued dryness.

New EURO: Wild 10 days ahead for N.E. After Tue blizzard NYC-BOS, snow threats increase in ROC. Extreme cold still on table by Super Sunday.

We will be spectators to a Blizzard in NYC and Boston. Snow threats increase for ROC. I will believe it when I see it falling from the sky. Probably will be just the nickel and dime crap we always get.

That would easily equate to an advisory level snowfall with how cold the airmass will be. KW isn't necessarily talking about a return to nickel and dime snows afterward, and even if he was then I find it just completely stunning that anyone would complain about it. We haven't even been getting pennies lately, at this point to go back to nickels and dimes would feel like a blessing. On a related note, I move that we rename the blog to the News 8 Whiner Line to more accurately reflect the dominant mindset present here.

Wow that storm has blown up out of no where. You can never count out anything all the negative people out there. In fact it just moved another 100 miles or so west on the 18z GFS run. You never know we are still talking three days out could move west more.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. But yeah, that storm and the one happening right now should serve as an important lesson to those who want to cancel the next 10 days based on looping the GFS a few times. The current one was supposed to slide harmlessly out to sea while the next one was supposed to be a moderate event at best. The massive blizzard of 2013 came out of nowhere too, emerging as a serious storm threat with only 4 days of lead time.

We will get ours. If we don't then we will move on to spring eventually and this will be a distant memory. It's probably a blessing in disguise for schools this week since it is midterm week for our high school. Any days off would screw up the schedule of tests kids come in to take.

Going to be an epic storm that we will watch from a distance. This winter is really going to be a big disappointment. No way Scott's over 100 inch prediction happens. You only get the storm NY and NE are going to get tomorrow and Tuesday once in a great while. NY has a blizzard watch. I guess our blizzard guy was close it is just not the flower city.

Not complaining CCCC just stating what are really the facts. We really would be extremely lucky to get 75 inches this year being where we are right now. The potential groundhog storm you have been mentioning also appears to be a Miller B type which leaves out of the fun. Just think the theme this winter is storms to west, storms to the east, and I am stuck in the middle with you lol. Now KW has been saying over and over again about PV (brutal) cold starting SB weekend and the week following? Do you see any evidence of this?

Miller B storms are actually way better for us than Miller A storms, which usually benefit the coast while the former type tends to spread the wealth. There's definitely going to be at least a shot of bitter air right around super bowl weekend. By the way, my comment above was directed more towards the anons who just say the same tired old things every day. Also areas to our west are having an even tougher time of it than we are...every cutter we've gotten this winter has been severely lacking on snowfall.

I've noticed something kind of really amusing this winter so far. By the middle of this week we will have gotten three nice storms to hit somewhere in the East, and all of them will have emerged as legitimate threats with 5 or fewer days worth of lead time. Meanwhile every potential that has emerged beyond a 5 day lead time has fizzled into either a weak clipper or a storm out to sea. Every single one. I think the lesson here is to avoid prognosticating on anything that's depicted to occur more than 5 days away.

I would like to start out by saying, I think most people are disappointed by this January as a whole. Now imagine if you loved the snow and your paycheck reflected the LACK of snowfall. So yes I am also disappointed; however, I refuse to bellyache over it, over and over and over again!!!!!!! Wow give it a rest all ready.

It appears that Western NY will not be left out on Monday. I would NOT be surprised if we ended up with a 2-4 inch range area wide accumulation from the inverted trough. It also appears that the Thursday night Friday clipper type storm might take a favorable track for some modest accumulations in Western NY. It is active with multiple opportunities for snow this coming week so many need to cheer up and hope for the best.

The whining will never stop man, no matter what happens. Here's how it always goes:

- No snow is happening: "This pattern is BORING!"- Nickels and dimes are happening: "All we're getting is little nickels and dimes. BORING!"- A significant, but not BIG, storm is happening: "We've seen storms like this a million times before. BORING!"- A big storm is happening: "The flakes are too small and a dry slot is coming. BUST!"- Blizzard of '66 redux is happening: "Syracuse got more snow than us. Rochester misses out yet again!"

It's like the bar is always just out of reach for some people. Oh well, their choice to be dissatisfied all of the time.

That's for sure. There are many reasonable bloggers on the page also, it will only take some snow to get some more of them back. Until then thankyou to CCCC and some others for keeping it interesting here.

I would also like to add that Snowdog might as well stop posting under anonymous, I can pick out all of your posts. They stick out like sore thumbs. Yesterday and this morning before 6am and many in between. Your still here complaining away just hiding behind the Anonymous title.

I have to wonder if the meteoric rise of the impending nor'easter might end up screwing with the groundhog day setup. I noticed that the models started dropping any hint of a big phased system for that time period once they caught onto the much bigger solution for this storm. It also could simply be that the sheer magnitude of the storm is injecting a good deal more chaos into the picture and tripping the models up, and that they've only temporarily lost the GHD system. Fingers crossed that it's the second one.

Also I think it's pretty funny that the Euro model led the way to a lower impact system initially, then led the way back to a larger storm again. Made a wrong turn at Albuquerque, or in this case the Virginia Piedmont. No leader is perfect though.

CCCC, I know you don't have a crystal ball, but in your opinion do you think we will see one or more 6-12 inch snow falls before spring or are we just chasing ghosts the rest of winter? I'm not drinking the cool aid yet don't worry just trying to find some hope amongst all the negativity.

Yes, really. Someone always gets caught underneath some extremely heavy banding in these powerful Atlantic storms and surpasses the forecasted amounts by a country mile. This thing is going to have banding features that will dump several inches per hour, and those banding features will stall and pivot over the same area for a lengthy period of time as the system drifts slowly towards the NNE. Whichever area that is will be the area that overachieves the most. I actually can't think of a single big time nor'easter where someone didn't end up surpassing the high end of the forecast range by a foot or more. OKX is currently forecasting up to 3 feet for large parts of their CWA. It's really not implausible that isolated areas reach or exceed 50 inches if they remain underneath the heaviest banding features for long enough.

Boy wonder what Cuomo is going to say about regents test this week of course they can not be cancelled because of a Blizzard .I am sure he will find a way to blame the teachers for the blizzard too. Maybe he should take the regents test but he would probably fail.

Semi-bold prediction: Cuomo will make an ignorant statement at some point claiming that the storm was poorly forecasted or arrived "without warning." This will occur because his administration mismanaged something as per usual.

I think you will see the NWS post WWA for the Rochester area for tomorrow mid morning through Tuesday morning. I think some places in WNY will get 6 inches or even a bit more by Tuesday morning. It might not be 3 feet but anything is better than nothing.

Imagine this KROC gets 4 inches tomorrow, 3-4 late Thursday early Friday an inch or two of LES Friday night Saturday morning. All of a sudden January's total snowfall is a lot closer to the average. It goes to show averages don't always show the true stories.

Was just reading about the storm of 1888.. 20-60 inches of snow with 50 mph winds from NJ up to Maine.. Drifts as high as 50 feet! How do you clear a drift 50 feet high in 1888..or even 2014 for that matter!

Think this storm is going to take a big left turn and there will be a blizzard in The Flower City with in the next 2 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We picked up an inch of LES last night and it is still snowing. It is not a lot but unexpected because models have not shown that LES band at all. It makes me wonder if they have a handle on the amount of lake enhancement we are going to receive for this system? We will see.

The GFS and the Euro are still at odds with each other, but the NAM has begun siding with the Euro. There will be isolated 3+ foot totals in spots across the NYC metro, and I'm sticking with my bold call of a 50+ inch lollipop somewhere, probably a small isolated patch in southern New England. Thursday looks like a moderate snow to me right now. The GHD potential is slowly creeping back into the picture as of last night's Euro and GGEM runs. The GFS still wants nothing to do with any southern stream involvement, and instead brings another moderate northern stream event. Either way we appear to be in for a much more interesting time period than last week was (it would be really difficult to get more dull than last week though).

It also appears that the PV severe cold KW was talking about is backing off too? I mean he has been talking for several days like the severe cold we had last year with the PV. Like wind chills 25-30 below. I do not see that on the models?

While the whiners continue drowning in an ocean of their own self-made sadness, I will gladly report that everything looks like fresh white wintriness once again. I'm guessing we won't reach the forecast numbers but it's not like we can do anything about it. Meanwhile NYC is shut down for a good reason, and their NWS office is forecasting way more than 8-12 inches. But I guess once you've drained your own half-full glass then the only logical decision is to drain someone else's too.

If the ensembles are right about the next two weeks then our "snow drought" is going to have a big time bite taken out of it.

Basically the ensemble means are showing well over an inch of QPF across the region over the next two weeks while a trough hangs around. The big cold shot still looks blunted compared to when it looked like the coldest of the season, but again still very cold.

CCCC it does look like NYC may only get 8-12 according to TWC. They said there is low confidence with NY. Boston on the other hand is high confidence for 18-24 or more. Not sure why KW does not tone it down on the PV and extreme cold.

* SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 20S.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MANY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.

I'm pretty happy with the lack of snow. Winter has been pretty easy this year... I was worried that we'd get more snow along with the below zero temps and even lower windchill factors. As soon as the kids are out of high school, I'm moving on to warmer climes! West! Dry heat... ☺