Friday, March 30, 2007

Both teams were in the national title game last year. Both teams return all major players except Farmar (and I’ve already documented how Collison has exceeded Farmar’s stats.) I could give you a statistical analysis, but I think that might not be fair, because this is a re-match game. If this game was being played in November, everyone would bet on UCLA. That is because UCLA players spent 6 months dwelling on this loss. UCLA coaches spent the summer agonizing over whether or not they had the best game plan and developing a new one. Meanwhile, Florida coaches and players are thinking – let’s just do more of the same. Our game plan worked last time, so if we just execute our game plan, we should win.

Because this mentality is impossible to avoid, I will be shocked if UCLA doesn’t come out hot at the beginning of the game. (The fact that this is the Final Four reduces the re-match factor to some degree, but I still think it will be there.) The question will be how Florida responds to UCLA’s new game plan. Donovan has a reputation as a good recruiter, but his adjustments in this game could help cement his reputation as a smart X’s and O’s coach as well.

So assuming Ben Howland comes out with a unique strategy against UCLA, what will it be? I have no idea, but two special UCLA correspondents file the following report. Their data suggests that Ben Howland has been choosing the best lineup so far, but based on his energy in the first two rounds, they suggest an unlikely sparkplug for this game.

“Where is Westbrook?”Jeff Chang and John Yun

Basically, after the Indiana game, we have been wondering why Ben Howland does not play backup point guard Russell Westbrook more minutes: he played 7, 4, 6, and 5 minutes against Weber St., Indiana, Pittsburgh, and Kansas, respectively. For reference, last year, when Darren Collison backed up Jordan Farmar, Collison played 22, 14, 20, and 19 minutes against Belmont, Alabama, Gonzaga, and Memphis, respectively.

Westbrook has made the most of his minutes with highlights that include a steal & breakaway dunk over Indiana’s Roderick Wilmont and a steal & breakaway dunk during the Kansas game. During his combined 22 minutes in the tournament, Westbrook has 13 points, 2 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 assists, and 1 turnover. Plus it does not hurt that he is a dead ringer for everybody’s favorite announcer Gus Johnson (especially Bruins fans who fondly remember his UCLA-Gonzaga masterpiece…“after being down by 17…Heartbreak City!”…) In sum, usually in a sports bar with a chicken wing in one hand, we keep asking ourselves: “Where is Westbrook?!!”

Well, we decided to look up the numbers and extrapolate each Bruin’s productivity to 40 minutes. Using a simple unweighted average of basic stats reported in every box score, we ranked them in ascending order.

According to this approach, Mbah a Moute is the top player—then Collison, Shipp, Afflalo, and Mata. Essentially, the top 5 players represent the starting 5. Additionally, Roll should be the first one off the bench. And he is. Aboya should be next. And he is. Westbrook should be third. And he is.

Therefore, this sort of confirms that Howland knows what he is doing. Obviously, these stats do not tell the whole picture. Westbrook’s numbers are hurt by his West Virginia game where he logged a lot of minutes and not much productivity. Also, we imagine most players' productivity is an inverted U-shape relative to minutes. We definitely feel Collison and Afflalo are past their peak minutes and Westbrook is way under. Thus, while it is likely that Howland is going to stick to his current substitution patterns, we hope to see more Westbrook on Saturday against Florida. Who knows, he just might be the difference…

Win Now, Win Later

I’m not quite sure how I feel about the U shaped productivity curve, but it has potential. Certainly if you play one minute, you might not get your feet under you, and if you play 40 you might get tired out. But, I offer another reason that UCLA should play Westbrook. Collison played a lot last year in the tournament and developed into a star guard this year. If Afflalo (likely) and Collison (becoming more likely) leave for the NBA this year, UCLA is going to want Westbrook to have more NCAA tournament experience. (Just as long as he uses his minutes effectively.)

About Me

My preseason prediction model has been featured in ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, and Sports Illustrated. I was a weekly columnist for RealGM.com for over 4 years, covering the 2011-2015 NCAA tournaments.