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Gasoline demand supported crude prices despite a higher inventory

Every week, the U.S. Department of Energy (the DOE) reports figures on crude inventories, or the amount of crude oil stored in facilities across the U.S. Market participants pay attention to these figures, as they can indicate supply and demand trends. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies either greater supply or weaker demand and is bearish for crude oil prices. If the increase in crude inventories is less than expected, it implies either weaker supply or greater demand and is bullish for crude oil prices. Crude oil prices highly affect earnings for major oil producers such as Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Hess Corp. (HES), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Larger-than-expected inventory build: Positive for oil prices

On November 14, the DOE reported an increase in crude inventories of 2.6 million barrels compared to analysts’ expectations of a crude oil inventory build of 0.6 million barrels. The larger-than-expected increase in inventories was a negative signal for oil prices. However, after an initial drop, oil ended largely flat on the day. WTI crude prices closed at $93.76 per barrel compared to $93.88 per barrel the day prior. The inventory report also showed that gasoline stocks continued to decline and are at their lowest point in about a year. Meanwhile, refinery run rates remain slightly depressed as many refineries undergo seasonal maintenance in the fall. Refineries process crude oil into products such as gasoline and diesel for end use. With more refinery capacity coming back online, that should draw down crude inventories, as long as the demand for end products such as gasoline and diesel is strong enough to warrant increased run rates. So, as gasoline inventories fell this week—and fell more than expected—that could have helped to support crude prices.

Background: U.S. crude oil production has pushed up inventories over the past few years

From a longer-term perspective, crude inventories had been much higher than in the past five years at the same point in the year (though they had closed in under comparable 2012 levels for a period earlier this year). There has been a surge in U.S. crude oil production over the past several years. Inventories had accrued because much of the excess refinery and takeaway capacity had been soaked up and it took time and capital for more to come online. This caused the spread between WTI Cushing (the benchmark U.S. crude, which represents light sweet crude priced at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma) and Brent crude (the benchmark international crude, which represents light sweet crude priced in the North Sea) to blow out.

However, over the course of 2013, this closed in considerably so that the two benchmarks traded almost in line again, as more takeaway capacity from the Cushing hub came online. Recently, however, the spread has widened back out (see Why the WTI-Brent oil spread remains above $10 per barrel for more background).

Outlook

This week’s larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories was a negative short-term indicator for WTI crude prices, though gasoline demand helped support crude prices.WTI price movements and broader oil price movements affect crude oil producers crude oil, as higher prices result in higher margins and earnings. Names with portfolios slanted towards oil such as Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Hess Corp. (HES), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) could see margins squeezed in a lower oil price environment. Also, oil price movements affect energy sector ETFs such as the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), an ETF that includes companies that develop and produce hydrocarbons and the companies that service them.