Totaw fertiwity rate

The totaw fertiwity rate (TFR), sometimes awso cawwed de fertiwity rate, absowute/potentiaw natawity, period totaw fertiwity rate (PTFR), or totaw period fertiwity rate (TPFR) of a popuwation is de average number of chiwdren dat wouwd be born to a woman over her wifetime if:

She was to experience de exact current age-specific fertiwity rates (ASFRs) drough her wifetime, and

The TFR is a syndetic rate, not based on de fertiwity of any reaw group of women since dis wouwd invowve waiting untiw dey had compweted chiwdbearing. Nor is it based on counting up de totaw number of chiwdren actuawwy born over deir wifetime. Instead, de TFR is based on de age-specific fertiwity rates of women in deir "chiwd-bearing years", which in conventionaw internationaw statisticaw usage is ages 15–44 or 15–49.[3]

The TFR is, derefore, a measure of de fertiwity of an imaginary woman who passes drough her reproductive wife subject to aww de age-specific fertiwity rates for ages 15–49 dat were recorded for a given popuwation in a given year. The TFR represents de average number of chiwdren a woman wouwd potentiawwy have, were she to fast-forward drough aww her chiwdbearing years in a singwe year, under aww de age-specific fertiwity rates for dat year. In oder words, dis rate is de number of chiwdren a woman wouwd have if she was subject to prevaiwing fertiwity rates at aww ages from a singwe given year, and survives droughout aww her chiwdbearing years.

An awternative fertiwity measure is de net reproduction rate (NRR), which measures de number of daughters a woman wouwd have in her wifetime if she were subject to prevaiwing age-specific fertiwity and mortawity rates in de given year. When de NRR is exactwy one, den each generation of women is exactwy reproducing itsewf. The NRR is wess widewy used dan de TFR, and de United Nations stopped reporting NRR data for member nations after 1998. But de NRR is particuwarwy rewevant where de number of mawe babies born is very high due to gender imbawance and sex sewection. This is a significant factor in worwd popuwation, due to de high wevew of gender imbawance in de very popuwous nations of China and India. The gross reproduction rate (GRR), is de same as de NRR, except dat—wike de TFR—it ignores wife expectancy.

The TFR (or TPFR—totaw period fertiwity rate) is a better index of fertiwity dan de crude birf rate (annuaw number of birds per dousand popuwation) because it is independent of de age structure of de popuwation, but it is a poorer estimate of actuaw compweted famiwy size dan de totaw cohort fertiwity rate, which is obtained by summing de age-specific fertiwity rates dat actuawwy appwied to each cohort as dey aged drough time. In particuwar, de TFR does not necessariwy predict how many chiwdren young women now wiww eventuawwy have, as deir fertiwity rates in years to come may change from dose of owder women now. However, de TFR is a reasonabwe summary of current fertiwity wevews.
TFR and wong term popuwation growf rate, g, are cwosewy rewated. For a popuwation structure in a steady state, growf rate eqwaws wog(TFR/2)/Xm, where Xm is mean age for chiwdbearing women, uh-hah-hah-hah.

The TPFR (totaw period fertiwity rate) is affected by a tempo effect—if age of chiwdbearing increases (and wife cycwe fertiwity is unchanged) den whiwe de age of chiwdbearing is increasing, TPFR wiww be wower (because de birds are occurring water), and den de age of chiwdbearing stops increasing, de TPFR wiww increase (due to de deferred birds occurring in de water period) even dough de wife cycwe fertiwity has been unchanged. In oder words, de TPFR is a misweading measure of wife cycwe fertiwity when chiwdbearing age is changing, due to dis statisticaw artifact. This is a significant factor in some countries, such as de Czech Repubwic and Spain in de 1990s. Some measures seek to adjust for dis timing effect to gain a better measure of wife-cycwe fertiwity.

Repwacement fertiwity is de totaw fertiwity rate at which women give birf to enough babies to sustain popuwation wevews.

According to de UN Popuwation Division, a totaw fertiwity rate (TFR) of about 2.1 chiwdren per woman is cawwed repwacement-wevew fertiwity.[7]
If repwacement wevew fertiwity is sustained over a sufficientwy wong period, each generation wiww exactwy repwace itsewf.[7]
The repwacement wevew of TFR is dependent awso on maternaw mortawity and chiwd mortawity, and, as such, it is higher in underdevewoped countries. The repwacement fertiwity rate is indeed onwy swightwy above 2.0 birds per woman for most industriawized countries (2.075 in de UK, for exampwe), but ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in devewoping countries because of higher mortawity rates, especiawwy chiwd mortawity.[8] The gwobaw average for de repwacement totaw fertiwity rate (eventuawwy weading to a stabwe gwobaw popuwation) was 2.33 chiwdren per woman in 2003.[9]

The term "wowest-wow fertiwity" is defined as TFR at or bewow 1.3.[10] This is characteristic of some Eastern European, Soudern European and East Asian countries.[11] In 2001, more dan hawf of de popuwation of Europe wived in countries wif wowest-wow TFR, but TFRs have since swightwy increased dere.[12]

A popuwation dat maintained a TFR of 3.8 over an extended period widout a correspondingwy high deaf or emigration rate wouwd increase rapidwy (doubwing period ~ 32 years), whereas a popuwation dat maintained a TFR of 2.0 over a wong time wouwd decrease, unwess it had a warge enough immigration, uh-hah-hah-hah. However, it may take severaw generations for a change in de totaw fertiwity rate to be refwected in birf rate, because de age distribution must reach eqwiwibrium. For exampwe, a popuwation dat has recentwy dropped bewow repwacement-wevew fertiwity wiww continue to grow, because de recent high fertiwity produced warge numbers of young coupwes who wouwd now be in deir chiwdbearing years.

This phenomenon carries forward for severaw generations and is cawwed popuwation momentum, popuwation inertia or popuwation-wag effect. This time-wag effect is of great importance to de growf rates of human popuwations.

TFR (net) and wong term popuwation growf rate, g, are cwosewy rewated. For a popuwation structure in a steady state and wif zero migration, g eqwaws wog(TFR/2)/Xm, where Xm is mean age for chiwdbearing women and dus P(t) = P(0)exp(gt). At de weft side is shown de empiricaw rewation between de two variabwes in a cross-section of countries wif most recent y-y growf rate. The parameter 1/b shouwd be an estimate of de Xm; here eqwaw to 1/0.02 = 50 years, way off de mark because of popuwation momentum. E.g. for wog(TFR/2) = 0, g shouwd be exactwy zero, which is seen not to be de case.

Devewoped countries usuawwy have a significantwy wower fertiwity rate, often correwated wif greater weawf, education, urbanization, or oder factors. Mortawity rates are wow, birf controw is understood and easiwy accessibwe, and costs are often deemed very high because of education, cwoding, feeding, and sociaw amenities. Wif weawf, contraception becomes affordabwe. In countries wike Iran where contraception was subsidized before de economy accewerated, birf rate awso rapidwy decwined. Furder, wonger periods of time spent getting higher education often mean women have chiwdren water in wife. Femawe wabor participation rate awso has substantiaw negative impact on fertiwity, but not in aww countries (for countries in de OECD, increased femawe wabor participation has been associated wif increased fertiwity[13]).

In undevewoped countries on de oder hand, famiwies desire chiwdren for deir wabour and as caregivers for deir parents in owd age. Fertiwity rates are awso higher due to de wack of access to contraceptives, stricter adherence to traditionaw rewigious bewiefs, generawwy wower wevews of femawe education, and wower rates of femawe empwoyment in industry. The totaw fertiwity rate for de worwd has been decwining very rapidwy since de 1990s. Some forecasters wike Sanjeev Sanyaw argue dat, adjusted for gender imbawances, de effective gwobaw fertiwity wiww faww bewow repwacement rate in de 2020s. This wouwd stabiwize worwd popuwation by 2050.[14] This differs from projections by de United Nations who estimate dat some growf wiww continue even in 2100.[15] If de gwobaw TFR fawws as much as it did from year 1995 to 2000, by 0.25 points, in 2015 to 2020, den dat wouwd resuwt in gwobaw TFR being 2.11 by year 2020 (it was 2.36 in 2010–2015 period). 2.11 is de exact gwobaw repwacement rate of humanity. However, if it fawws as much as it did from 1975 to 1980, by 0.61 points (it was 4.45 TFR in 1975 and 3.84 TFR by 1980), den de gwobaw TFR wouwd be wow at 1.75 chiwdren per woman, weww bewow repwacement wevew, by year 2020.

This situation of weawdy countries usuawwy having a wower fertiwity rate dan poor countries is part of de fertiwity-income paradox, as de very high fertiwity countries are very poor, and it may seem counter-intuitive for famiwies dere to have so many chiwdren, uh-hah-hah-hah. The inverse rewationship between income and fertiwity has been termed a demographic-economic "paradox" by de notion dat greater means wouwd enabwe de production of more offspring, as first suggested by demographic schowar Thomas Mawdus in 1798.

Governments have often set popuwation targets, to eider increase or decrease de totaw fertiwity rate; or to have certain ednic or socioeconomic groups have a wower or higher fertiwity rate. Often such powicies have been interventionist, and abusive. The most notorious natawist powicies of de 20f century incwude dose in communist Romania and communist Awbania, under Nicowae Ceaușescu and Enver Hoxha respectivewy. The powicy of Romania (1967–1990) was very aggressive, incwuding outwawing abortion and contraception, routine pregnancy tests for women, taxes on chiwdwessness, and wegaw discrimination against chiwdwess peopwe; and resuwted in warge numbers of chiwdren put into Romanian orphanages by parents who couwdn't cope wif raising dem, street chiwdren in de 1990s (when many orphanages were cwosed and de chiwdren ended up on de streets), overcrowding in homes and schoows, and over 9,000 women who died due to iwwegaw abortions.[16] Conversewy, in China de government sought to wower de fertiwity rate, and, as such, enacted de one-chiwd powicy (1978–2015), which incwuded abuses such as forced abortions.[17] Some governments have sought to reguwate which groups of society couwd reproduce drough eugenic powicies of forced steriwizations of 'undesirabwe' popuwation groups. Such powicies were carried out against ednic minorities in Europe and Norf America in de first hawf of de 20f century, and more recentwy in Latin America against de Indigenous popuwation in de 1990s; in Peru, President Awberto Fujimori (in office from 1990 to 2000) has been accused of genocide and crimes against humanity as a resuwt of a steriwization program put in pwace by his administration targeting indigenous peopwe (mainwy de Quechuas and de Aymaras).[18] Widin dis historicaw contexts, de notion of reproductive rights has devewoped. Such rights are based on de concept dat each person freewy decides if, when, and how many chiwdren to have - not de state or church. According to de OHCHR reproductive rights "rest on de recognition of de basic rights of aww coupwes and individuaws to decide freewy and responsibwy de number, spacing and timing of deir chiwdren and to have de information and means to do so, and de right to attain de highest standard of sexuaw and reproductive heawf. It awso incwudes de right to make decisions concerning reproduction free of discrimination, coercion and viowence, as expressed in human rights documents".[19]

A parent's number of chiwdren strongwy correwates wif de number of chiwdren dat each person in de next generation wiww eventuawwy have.[20] Factors generawwy associated wif increased fertiwity incwude rewigiosity,[21] intention to have chiwdren,[22] and maternaw support.[23] Factors generawwy associated wif decreased fertiwity incwude weawf, education,[24]femawe wabor participation,[25]urban residence,[26]intewwigence, widespread birf controw usage, increased femawe age and (to a wesser degree) increased mawe age. Many of dese factors, however, are not universaw, and differ by region and sociaw cwass. For instance, at a gwobaw wevew, rewigion is correwated wif increased fertiwity, but in de West wess so: Scandinavian countries and France are among de weast rewigious in de EU, but have de highest TFR, whiwe de opposite is true about Portugaw, Greece, Cyprus, Powand and Spain, uh-hah-hah-hah.[27]

The wowest TFR recorded anywhere in de worwd in recorded history is for Xiangyang district of Jiamusi city (Heiwongjiang, China) which had a TFR of 0.41.[28] Outside China, de wowest TFR ever recorded was 0.80 for Eastern Germany in 1994. The wow Eastern German vawue was infwuenced by a change to higher age at birf, wif de conseqwence dat neider owder cohorts (e.g. women born untiw de wate 1960s), who often awready had chiwdren, nor younger cohorts, who were postponing chiwdbirf, had many chiwdren during dat time. The totaw cohort fertiwity rate of each age cohort of women in East German did not drop as significantwy.

Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Souf Korea had wowest-wow fertiwity, defined as TFR at or bewow 1.3, and were among de wowest in de worwd. Singapore and Macau had a TFR bewow 1.0 in 2017. Norf Korea had de highest TFR in East Asia at 1.95.[5]

The TFR of China was 1.60 in 2018.[5] China impwemented de one-chiwd powicy in 1979 as a drastic popuwation pwanning measure to controw de ever-growing popuwation at de time. In 2015, de powicy was repwaced wif two-chiwd powicy as China's popuwation is aging faster dan awmost any oder country in modern history.[34]

Japan had a TFR of 1.42 in 2018.[5] Japan's popuwation is rapidwy aging due to bof a wong wife expectancy and a wow birf rate. The totaw popuwation is shrinking, wosing 430,000 in 2018 to a totaw of 126.4 miwwion, uh-hah-hah-hah.[35] Hong Kong and Singapore mitigate dis drough immigrant workers, but in Japan, a serious demographic imbawance has devewoped due to de wimited number of immigration to Japan.

In Souf Korea, a wow birdrate is one of its most urgent socio-economic chawwenges.[36] Rising housing expenses, shrinking job opportunities for younger generations, insufficient support to famiwies wif newborns eider from de government or empwoyers are among de major expwanations for its crawwing TFR, from 1.08 in 2005 to 0.98 in 2018.[37][38] Koreans are yet to find viabwe sowutions to make de birdrate rebound, even after trying out dozens of programs over a decade, incwuding subsidizing rearing expenses, giving priorities for pubwic rentaw housing to coupwes wif muwtipwe chiwdren, funding day care centers, reserving seats in pubwic transportation for pregnant women, and so on, uh-hah-hah-hah.

The TFR of Braziw, de most popuwous country in de region, was estimated at 1.75 in 2018.[5] The second most popuwous country, Mexico, had an estimated TFR of 2.22.[5] The next most popuwous four countries in de region had estimated TFRs of between 1.9 and 2.3 in 2018, incwuding Cowombia (1.98), Argentina (2.25), Peru (2.1), and Venezuewa (2.3). Guatemawa had de highest estimated TFR in de region at 2.87 in 2018; and Puerto Rico de wowest at 1.21.[5]

The average totaw fertiwity rate in de European Union (EU-27) is cawcuwated at 1.59 chiwdren per woman in 2017.[27] France had de highest TFR in 2017 among EU countries at 1.90, fowwowed by Sweden (1.78), Irewand (1.77), Denmark (1.77) and Romania (1.71).[27] Mawta had de wowest TFR in 2017 among EU countries at 1.26.[27] Oder soudern European countries awso had very wow TFR (Portugaw 1.38, Cyprus, 1.32, Greece 1.35, Spain 1.31, and Itawy 1.32).[27] Powand awso had a wow TFR (1.38).[27] According to 2018 estimates for de non-EU European post-Soviet states group, Russia had a TFR of 1.61, Mowdova 1.57, Ukraine 1.55, and Bewarus 1.49.[5] Bosnia Herzegovina had de wowest estimated TFR in Europe in 2018, at 1.31.[5]

Emigration of young aduwts from Eastern Europe to de West aggravates de demographic probwems of dose countries. Peopwe from countries such as Mowdova, Romania, Hungary, and Buwgaria are particuwarwy moving abroad.[39]

The totaw fertiwity rate in de United States after Worwd War II peaked at about 3.8 chiwdren per woman in de wate 1950s and by 1999 was at 2 chiwdren, uh-hah-hah-hah. The fertiwity rate of de totaw U.S. popuwation was just bewow de repwacement wevew in 1979.[40] Currentwy, de fertiwity is bewow repwacement among dose native born, and above repwacement among immigrant famiwies, most of whom come to de United States from countries wif higher fertiwity. However, de fertiwity rate of immigrants to de United States has been found to decrease sharpwy in de second generation, correwating wif improved education and income.[41] In 2018, U.S. TFR continued to decwine, reaching 1.72.[42]