Deal or no deal, it is nearly certain that lawmakers will send the governor a budget by Friday. Under a 2010 initiative, they face the prospect of losing their pay and expense money unless they pass a budget on time.

They do need Republican votes to approve tax increases, but have opted instead to go directly to voters for a November tax hike on sales and high-income earners to raise $8.5 billion.

Brown and Democratic lawmakers are on the same page except for about $2 billion in cuts to programs for the poor, Steinberg told The Bee. He has suggested previously that the state reduce its “rainy-day” fund contribution and use former redevelopment funds as a way to help close the state’s $15.7 billion gap.

The tax initiative looms over whatever happens this week, as Brown and Democrats want to show voters that they made serious headway in solving the state’s persistent budget imbalance before they ask for more taxes.

“I can actually see two scenarios,” said Jeff Cummins, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, who recently published a study of state budget gridlock. “One is where Gov. Brown takes a stand and doesn’t go along with gimmicks that Democrats are going to try to put in there, and that will give him attention.”

“I can also see the opposite,” Cummins added, “where he will want to have it look like they are getting something done, meeting deadlines, and can make the argument (to voters) in November they got things done as early as they could.”

In committee earlier this year, Assembly Democrats blocked the governor’s proposal to overhaul the state’s welfare-to-work program, CalWORKs. Brown wanted to reduce full aid to parents from four years to two if they do not find work.

They also rejected the governor’s proposals to reduce Cal Grant scholarships at private colleges and require higher grades to qualify for aid.

Senate Democrats have prioritized those programs as well, though they have not outright rejected many of his cuts in their committees.

“We have the same objectives, really, which is to do everything we can to end the deficit, to create ongoing solutions to the fiscal challenges,” Steinberg said of negotiations with Brown. “But to do so in a way that recognizes there are people in California who are very vulnerable and who are already living on the edge, and that we ought not do anything that pushes them over the edge.”

Lawmakers could preserve the status quo and count $377 million in welfare-to-work savings, just under half of what the governor is trying to cut. The state saves that much now by not requiring parents of young children to seek work. It costs the state more to provide child care and training for those parents than to give grants without strings.

Brown initially proposed cutting off child care vouchers to low-income parents who did not find a job after two years. After legislative Democrats rejected that plan, the governor instead asked them to cut payments to child care providers, limiting low-income families to the cheapest day care centers available.