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Great Recession: All's Well That Ends Well?

The Dow has put in its best performance in years. Houses are starting to sell. Banks are paying bonuses again.

But what does this mean?

It means, some pessimists believe, a W curve. It's going up, only to come down again—to go up again (presumably).

Or it could mean nothing at all. Rather, things are so bad that they can no longer get much worse, hence they seem better—and if they seem better, they get better.

Or, it's the broken clock analysis. Certain politicians and media people have started to say the recession is over because it will eventually be over and then they'll be able to say they were prescient—and if enough people say it's over, that helps make it over.

Or the recession, which was triggered by a great confluence of psychological factors resulting in the flight of once dependable but suddenly horrified consumers from the market, is now being reversed by similarly potent psychological factors. That is, people are bored by the recession—and spending again is a way to feel less bored, which, in turn, makes markets go up and people spend more.

So what's it all about? What's the lasting effect? Is there a lasting effect?