The Wheelhouse: Top 50, Vol. I

Derek is the Senior Baseball Editor for RotoWire.com, where he's been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also co-hosts RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210) from 11a-2p ET on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

The process of building a Top 350 is a laborious one, so consider this a progress update and a way of sharing thoughts at the top of the list where the debates are generally more intense.

A few things to keep in mind as you consume this list, and subsequent rankings from me:

* I care much less about position scarcity than most.
* One very good piece of information that I do not currently possess can significantly alter a ranking in either direction.
* Players are human. In some instances, that means they take PEDs. Others get a divorce and simply don't play as well around that. Those are hardly the limitations of the concept, but often times we expect things to repeat because they happened last season, and in other instances we simply forget that players are not stat-generating robots built for our entertainment and profit.

I also want to preface this list by adding more context to my unwillingness to consider Mike Trout as a top-three player for 2013. The safety in Trout, if there can be any for a player with 774 big league plate appearances, is in his plus-plus speed. The risk is all over the place, including Trout's contact rate, and the rapid spike in his power. The latter might be as surprising as Jacoby Ellsbury's home-run outburst in 2011.

What Trout accomplished last season was historic on many different levels. He became the fourth player in MLB history to log a season with 20+ HR, 20+ SB, 100+ runs and 80+ RBI at age 21 or younger. Perhaps Alex Rodriguez is a reasonable comp, if only because he had an insane age-20 season: .358 AVG, 36 HR, 123 RBI, 15 SB, 141 R (677 PA) before understandably regressing to a still impressive line in 1997 at age-21: .300 AVG, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 29 SB, 100 R (638 PA).

The question is not merely regression, but as Jeff Erickson always says: regression to what? Considering his advanced skill set, the team he plays for (and subsequently, the lineup around him) and the typical adjustments players are forced to make over time as the league finds ways to get them out, you must lay out expectations accordingly to avoid colossal failure and disappointment.

Yes, he's going to have the chance to play in more games this year, but if you are so sure that Trout can come within 80 percent of his 2012 numbers, you must have been on him this time last year when the acquisition cost was minimal. Or, you were wondering why he didn't hit in his first exposure to the big leagues in 2011, and why the numbers in the AFL that fall weren't great either. You were also wondering how Trout would displace albatross Vernon Wells for at-bats on a crowded roster that had Peter Bourjos, Torii Hunter, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales to cover three regular spots after the addition of Albert Pujols.

I'm hardly alone in my stance on Trout, but it's an overwhelming majority that seems perfectly content to lump in a group with Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera as one of the first players off the board in 2013. Perry Van Hook, an excellent player in our industry and someone with experience playing fantasy baseball that likely exceeds my time on this planet, took Trout first overall in a 15-team mixer we were in back in November. How happy do you think I was sitting at No. 2 to walk away Braun?

Ron Shandler covered this concept in the intro of his Baseball Forecaster and joined Jeff and I on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today to discuss it last week. It's called Gravity. Another industry mogul, Todd Zola quantified it with research a few years back. Players regress -- more often than not, and typically it's 70 percent of the player pool that takes a step in the wrong direction in any given year.

I'm a bit more optimistic about Trout than Ron is, but it's still a pretty significant shift from last season's results. Even with 150-155 games, I'm expecting the following from Trout:

.279 AVG, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 103 R, 48 SB

Depending on the breaks, it would translate to something around an .825 OPS with a still strong combo of power and speed.

Long term, there's plenty to be excited about here. If we're talking next 3-5 seasons in a keeper format, I see what everyone else does as far as pushing him into the elite conversation already.