Disinfo: Guerilla warfare and complete disintegration are coming to the US-controlled Ukraine

Summary

Recently the confrontation between president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and minister of interior Arsen Avakov, represented by Ukrainian national battalions, has entered a new phase. Negativity is accumulated, the dialogue is avoided by the sides, a formation of an enemy image are already there. Guerilla warfare and subversive acts are coming, and any accident can provoke a new coup which will give a start to a new stage of Ukraine’s disintegration.

The entry of Zelenskyy in power became a catalyst of conflicts between Ukrainian elites. They will result in Ukraine’s collapse, because even the US – and its embassy plays a colonial role in Ukraine – will not be able to restrain the conflict, given that Ukrainian elites copy the split between American elites. At the same time, the US will not allow either Zelenskyy or Avakov to be destroyed. Hence the conflict will be developing cyclically until Ukraine’s complete disintegration.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. Neither the US nor the EU countries control Ukraine. Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are respected by most of the free world but were violated by Russia in 2014.

It was reported that Zelenskyy and Avakov had working disagreements, however, their scope and possible consequences are groundlessly exaggerated in the publication.

With the ultimate aim to ruin the Belarus-Russia integration process and to bring Belarus closer to Poland, Warsaw is changing the ways of working with the Belarusian opposition. Polish security bodies are currently placing a greater emphasis on Belarusian informants. At the same time, NATO aims at constraining Belarus’ allied commitments towards Russia and at ruling out Belarus’ activities in case of NATO threat to the Kaliningrad region. Americans pressure Belarus to take a passive position in the possible NATO-Russia conflict. Taken together, enforcement of NATO military grouping along Belarusian borders and Polish elites’ attempts to bring discord in Belarus-Russia relations aim at distracting Belarusian resources from the economic sector to defence.

Polish foreign policy is generally very cyclical. As a rule, it tried to build an anti-Russian bastion in Europe based on foreign actors, be it Vatican, Sweden, France, UK, or the US. Each time these attempts ended with Poland’s collapse and country partitions. This can happen once again. Polish efforts to militarise Eastern Europe and to attract US’s attention to the region provoke Berlin’s discontent. German diplomats even joke that if things continue developing in this way, Germans will have no choice but to agree with the Russians once again and to partition the Polish state.

Germany and Poland are both members of NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance and does not pose a threat to Russia. Its purpose is to protect its member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies, and this includes the commitment that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit. For more information about NATO-Russia relations and disinformation narratives about NATO, see here and here.

An agreement with Russia is in the interest of the EU and it has a strong impact on the European’s level of life. NATO also needs such an agreement with Russia as it will provide peace. At the same time, there is only talks about security, not peace. And in the case of NATO, they tend to achieve security through very aggressive actions.

NATO regularly updates the military requirements for civilian infrastructure, at a time when there are increased challenges to security. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and amid emerging security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa in 2014, NATO leaders at the Wales Summit adopted the Readiness Action Plan, a comprehensive package of enhanced collective defence and deterrent measures designed to ensure the transatlantic alliance could respond swiftly and firmly to changes in its security environment.

One of the infamous legal documents approved in Belarus this year was the Information security concept. The concept defines the information sovereignty, which is, in reality, an imposition of artificial Belarusian identity, opposing the Russian. It also brings up Belarusization. This all means that in the information sphere Belarus is not Russia’s ally anymore and not a part of the Union State, but a sovereign country which distances itself from Russia. Hence the concept can become the Information alienation concept.

Belarus is a well-defined nation-state with a long history; it preserved language, literature and identity, despite foreign rule for long periods. Belarus' Information security concept, adopted in March 2019, stipulates, among other things, that "The Belarusian language along with a constitutionally upheld bilingualism, contributes to the development of the national identity of the Belarusian society and its spirituality."

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Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.