NBA Mock Draft: Towns Probably Will Go Before Okafor

IRA WINDERMANSouth Florida Sun Sentinel

Who is going when in the NBA draft? Ira Winderman makes his best guess

There is no exact science to the NBA draft, only the constant weighing of need vs. best player available. And there figures to be plenty of gamesmanship before commissioner Adam Silver opens the proceedings at 7:35 p.m. Thursday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. So how will it play out? Here's one collective possibility, with an effort made to fit the pieces into places that make sense.

The debate between Towns or Okafor at this spot appears to be over. Towns' rim protection and ability to convert from the perimeter make him among the draft's safest picks. He will be able to do what he does in the NBA, probably from the start.

2. LAKERS

Jahlil Okafor, center, Duke

This is the safe pick, especially for a franchise known for its post play. Kristaps Porzingis figures to be too risky this high. D'Angelo Russell is the player who could give second thoughts. Russell's going here could change the first five picks.

3. 76ERS

D'Angelo Russell, guard, Ohio State

The 76ers appear to be trying to set a market here for Porzingis, to maximize their leverage. But Russell is a cornerstone point guard, which is exactly what 76ers need after bailing on Michael Carter-Williams.

4. KNICKS

Kristaps Porzingis, center, Latvia

No, this is not a comfortable pairing, with Porzingis at least a year from growing into his body. But the Knicks covet so many in the draft that this could be where Porzingis is held hostage for a trade. The Knicks' ultimate hope is Okafor or Russell falling here.

5. MAGIC

Justise Winslow, forward, Duke

Mario Hezonja would be the bold play here, and the Magic well could trade up for Porzingis, possibly to No. 3. But sometimes the safe pick makes sense to fill a need. Winslow is the safe pick.

6. KINGS

Emmanuel Mudiay, guard, Congo

Mudiay was projected to go higher, and still could, but the lack of a reliable jumper figures to drop him a spot or two. For Sacramento, this would be a value play for the future. The Kings also have been linked to Willie Cauley-Stein.

7. NUGGETS

Mario Hezonja, guard, Croatia

Hezonja's combination of three-point shooting and athleticism probably would have him far higher if he were a collegian and without buyout issues. The Nuggets need sizzle; Hezonja meets that requirement.

8. PISTONS

Sam Dekker, forward, Wisconsin

The Pistons need shooting but also need something more complete on the wing, someone Stan Van Gundy won't have to wait on. That could push Dekker ahead of Stanley Johnson and Devin Booker in Detroit's thinking. Or not.

9. HORNETS

Devin Booker, guard, Kentucky

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can defend on the wing. Shooting? That's another issue for almost the entire balance of the Charlotte roster. This pick sets up as best-available shooter.

10. HEAT

Stanley Johnson, forward, Arizona

Ask Pat Riley what his ideal pick would be and he probably would mention defense, athleticism and shooting on the wing. Johnson offers the first two, and could be on the way to the third.

11. PACERS

Willie Cauley-Stein, forward, Kentucky

This is potentially the biggest floater at the top of the draft. The defense is NBA-caliber; the offense is the question. There is a good chance that any Cauley-Stein pick involves a trade.

12. JAZZ

Frank Kaminsky, forward, Wisconsin

Another floater who easily could find himself among the top 10. And he certainly could intrigue Pat Riley at No. 10. The shooting is there. The defense?

13. SUNS

Myles Turner, center, Texas

This is what makes the picks from No. 5 to No. 15 so intriguing, they're practically interchangeable, each selection offering upside. In Turner's case, that's toughness and shooting.

14. THUNDER

Cameron Payne, guard, Murray State

Reasoning: Will be the third point guard taken in the draft, with the question whether he slides beyond the Pacers at No. 11. Might have more immediate upside than Mudiay.

If the Mavericks are drafting for need, then they're drafting a point guard. The brother of former Heat forward Dorell Wright offers the conventionality that Rajon Rondo couldn't provide.

22. BULLS

R.J. Hunter, guard, Georgia State

Balancing the floor with shooting remains a concern with the broken shots of Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich. Hunter is yet another value pick at this late of a slot.

23. TRAIL BLAZERS

Rashad Vaughn, guard, UNLV

Wesley Matthews is a free agent and coming off injury. The Blazers' offense isn't nearly the same without spacing. And the one thing Vaughn does very well is shoot. The knee is a concern, which is why he goes this late.

24. CAVALIERS

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, forward, Arizona State

Not that LeBron James is going to wait on a rookie, nor will the Cavaliers play one. But he defends, moves well off the ball and could grow into something by when the Cavs need something.

25. GRIZZLIES

Justin Anderson, forward, Virginia

An upgrade on shooting is essential for Memphis, which would appreciate nothing more than Vaughn or even Hunter falling. Otherwise, Anderson offered such hope last season.

26. SPURS

Joseph Young, guard, Oregon

A combo guard (albeit undersized) who could help offset the potential retirement of Manu Ginobili, especially off the bench. The type of talent Gregg Popovich can nourish.

27. LAKERS (from Rockets)

Terry Rozier, guard, Louisville

This will come down to what the Lakers do with their first first-round pick. But if they go big then, it makes sense to then target the perimeter for when Kobe retires or gets hurt again.

28. CELTICS (from Clippers)

Robert Upshaw, center, Washington

Yes, a bunch of red flags here, but also the opportunity to have a true center to work into the mix when necessary. Consider it Fab Melo 2.0.

29. NETS (from Hawks)

Montrezl Harrell, forward, Louisville

The Nets need depth as well as someone up front to complement Brook Lopez. The energy burst that Harrell could provide would be a place to start. His motor offsets Lopez's lack of one.

30. WARRIORS

Michael Frazier, guard, Florida

Another three-point shooter to bring off the bench and keep the splash-a-thons going. Frazier has had a strong workout season, from the combine going forward.