Croatia Defence and Security Report 2016

About This Report

Abstract:

Levels of defence spending in Croatia have been low compared regionally for the past couple of decades, with the defence budget estimated to have steadily declined from a peak in the first half of the ----s amid the Yugoslav wars. Owing to its stable security environment, Zagreb has not been forced to raise defence expenditure significantly; indeed, the only substantial military spending driver for the country is NATO s requirement for member states to direct - of GDP towards strengthening military capabilities. ...Levels of defence spending in Croatia have been low compared regionally for the past couple of decades, with the defence budget estimated to have steadily declined from a peak in the first half of the ----s amid the Yugoslav wars. Owing to its stable security environment, Zagreb has not been forced to raise defence expenditure significantly; indeed, the only substantial military spending driver for the country is NATO s requirement for member states to direct - of GDP towards strengthening military capabilities. In September ----, the Croatian government pledged that the country would not reduce defence spending levels below its current -.- of GDP over the medium-to-long term, and this was reiterated in the Ministry of Defence s --------- Long Term Development Plan. ...We forecast Croatian defence spending, which has been declining over past decade, to finally return to growth in ---- with a y-o-y increase of -.- in local currency terms - reaching a value of HRK-.--bn (USD---mn). Through to ----, we expect the country s defence spending to continue on this upward trajectory at an annual average growth rate of -.- , reaching a value of HRK-.--bn (USD---mn).

...Defence expenditure, USD, y-o-y ---.- --.- -.- -.- --.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: World Bank, national sources, BMI In the Ministry of Defence (MoD) s --------- Long Term Development Plan, it states that Croatian defence expenditure will be maintained at ---- levels of -.- of GDP for at least the next three years. ...Defence expenditure, USD, y-o-y ---.- --.- -.- -.- --.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: World Bank, national sources, BMI In the Ministry of Defence (MoD) s --------- Long Term Development Plan, it states that Croatian defence expenditure will be maintained at ---- levels of -.- of GDP for at least the next three years. In the same document, the MoD outlines plans to continue streamlining of its armed forces, reducing personnel numbers to --,--- by the end of ----. ...The Croatian air force s main goal over the long term will lie with finding a permanent replacement for the outdated fleet of MiG--- Fishbed aircraft, which have recently undergone modernisation by Ukraine s

...BMI View: Croatia s continued downsizing of its already small armed forces, the lack of an immediate threat to its security environment and a still-weak - albeit improving - economic outlook, will limit the country s defence expenditure going forward. As such, the domestic sector - which only has strong capabilities in land armaments and personnel equipment segments - will have to continue looking to foreign markets for opportunities. ...BMI View: Croatia s continued downsizing of its already small armed forces, the lack of an immediate threat to its security environment and a still-weak - albeit improving - economic outlook, will limit the country s defence expenditure going forward. As such, the domestic sector - which only has strong capabilities in land armaments and personnel equipment segments - will have to continue looking to foreign markets for opportunities. The limited procurement that the defence ministry is likely to undertake will primarily be met by foreign suppliers with more technologically advanced capabilities. ...

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