Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Indiana Primary Open Thread. Update!

There’s not much more to say at this point: Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite to win her party’s nomination, and nothing that happens in Indiana—or anywhere else for that matter—is likely to change that. In fact, Clinton is a good bet to leave the Hoosier State in an even better position than when she arrived. Polling in Indiana has been a little hard to come by, but recent surveys show Hillary with a lead in the mid–single digits in the state, and Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team peg her chances of winning Tuesday’s primary at 86 percent or better.

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, is already acting like a candidate who knows he won’t win the nomination, and a loss Tuesday—or even a narrow victory that nets him a handful of delegates—will make it that much more difficult for him to pretend otherwise.

The Republicans

Despite the sparse polling, nearly all of the data we do have points to a Donald Trump victory in the GOP primary, and potentially even a blowout. The celebrity billionaire is currently up by an average of more than 9 points in the RealClearPolitics rolling average and seems to be gaining steam. The two most recent major state surveys—taken after Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced their we-swear-it’s-not-an-alliance alliance in the state—found Trump up by 15 points or more. Based on the polls, Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team peg Trump’s chances of winning Tuesday’s primary at 97 percent.

There are 83 delegates up for grabs on the Democrat's side, and 57 on the Republican side.

Of course I don't think the outcome will change much of anything as both Sanders and Cruz seem to have no real concept of reality.

Bernie is too damn stubborn to quit, and I don't think Ted knows what else to do with his time.

However after today I imagine that the pressure for them to get the hell out of the race will increase on both sides.

Which means that we actually are going to end up with a presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Holy crap!

Update: As predicted Donald Trump has won Indiana.

However between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders it is being called too close to call, though currently Hillary is in the lead.

Update 2: The votes separating Sanders and Clinton right now are so very few that it really does not matter which one wins as they will likely split the delegates right down the middle.

If the Sanders campaign gets the victory, even such a slim one, they will use it to challenge the idea that they are finished, while if the Clinton campaign ekes this one out they will simply continue to make the case that the bloated corpse of the Sanders campaign is now starting to reek a little.

Update 3: Well I was wrong. Cruz just "suspended" his campaign.

Now it is all Trump all the time.

Lucky us.

Update 4: Bernie Sanders has won this particular primary, but only with a few percentage points over Hillary so the delegates will be evenly split, as I mentioned earlier.

I can tell you, neither Cruz nor Sanders would win Florida. Florida is going to tough it out - Hillary or Trump, and a recent poll said Hillary would win Florida (by a small margin so I am not taking that to the bank - we've got a lot of work to do!)

Polls close and the networks can call the races in less than 10 minutes. Last I saw, they were showing the votes already and so far (knock on wood), Hillary is kicking ass and taking names.

I don't mind if Bernie stays in until California. Hillary did the same thing back in 2008. It's all his talk about a contested convention that I do not like. Plus the fact that he has not done one thing to help the Dems take the Senate or the House. That tells me the man is not a team player. It's all about him with that one.

you have summed up exactly why I'm so angry at sanders. Staying in the race would have been great, but wanting a contested convention, lobbing bombs at the President and Clinton, and doing nothing for other Democrats-- those actions are unforgiveable.

If there's one thing I know, it's that Trump would rather run against Hillary, rather than Bernie. He can throw the "kitchen sink" at Hillary, but what's there to throw at Bernie?

I think Bernie is hanging in there hoping as the polls start showing up the results of the contest between Hillary and Trump, and Trump starts getting ahead of Hillary, the super delegates might start turning towards him.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz: "If it were up to me, I’d exclude independents from Democratic primaries"http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278469-dnc-chairwoman-if-up-to-me-id-exclude-independents-fromYeah I bet,bitch.Exclude tax funding for elections not involving independents and let the party pay for closed elections.

Oh Ginger, do a little research. There's a lot he can throw at Bernie, starting with his socialism but (and I know, this isn't relevant) child support, honeymoon in Russia- things that would matter to the ignorati.

What's the point of speculating on hypotheticals that are never going to happen? Democratic primaries and caucuses are ALL proportional; threre are no winner take alls. For Bernie to get within 10 pledged delegates of Hillary, he'd have to sweep all remaining states by dozens of percentage points each. He has a better chance of winning Powerball.

Ginger, Bernie Sanders is STILL hiding his tax returns. What makes you think Trump wouldn't make a meal of that, plus Sanders' deadbeat dad and pornography checkered past and his non-contributory free ride in congress for a quarter century? Bernie Sanders has very little to run on and very little to recommend him as the leader of the free world. And that's why he'll drop out. Whatever his reasons for running, Jane Sanders has always been in charge. Without his multi-million-dollar consultants speaking for him Sanders would already be dead in the water. He's a tired old man with tired old talking points and consultants that have another agenda entirely- and that agenda is focused squarely on the DNC IMO.

Andre - No, the super delegates have decades of allegiance to Hillary. Fact. Bernie has not even been a "Democrat" for a full year yet. No one in the party is loyal to him. As a lifelong Democrat who has volunteered for many campaigns, including campaigning for President Obama in a state beyond my home state, I feel quite confident in answer this question as a firm NO.

Bernie is staying to improve the Democratic Party's platform. One need not win the nomination to make a difference. The platform is decided at the convention. The more Bernie supporters the better chance of having a liberal platform.Honestly, I'm a bit surprised that you're supporting Clinton.

You know, the Democratic platform has always done very well without Bernie Sanders' input. Every four years at least one day of the convention is devoted to the platform and the Dems always do a fine job. Not that Bernie Sanders ever cared before to have any input. Beaglemom

Lil' Annie Orphaned 3:14 PM"Bernie is staying to improve the Democratic Party's platform. One need not win the nomination to make a difference. The platform is decided at the convention. The more Bernie supporters the better chance of having a liberal platform."Exactly!Hellary needs to be held accountable on some shit on the way to her coronation.

This Clinton supporter thinks Sanders should stay in through the DC primary, then get the hell out promptly afterward. And in the meantime, he needs to knock off criticism of the nominee, and try to convince his so-not-nice wife to do the same.

I think by now, it is not Bernie anymore that wants to run, but it is Jane, his wife, that wants him to run. I also think her goal is to try to do to the Democratic party what tRump is doing to the GOP. Is she actually a (closet) ReThug? I mean, she went on Fox Noise the other day...

I think Jane Sanders was behind the run from the very beginning. Bernie Sanders has had decades to run and he hardly did a thing during that time. I think Jane Sanders is trying to set up HER comfortable old age.

I am a Bernie supporter but I just want to take Jane for a salon day. I want to have her hair cut, colored, and "freshen her up" a bit. She needs some Botox in her forehead and she needs some serious makeup help.

Don't even get me started on her wardrobe and her lack of physical fitness. She needs to be completely physically redone, because as she is now, I just can't imagine her as a first lady. Needs work, lots of it, and they can afford it so why let her wander around looking like a homeless person?

"With 26 primaries already completed by March 25, Hillary had garnered votes from just 10.9% of the registered voters—in the primaries that lean right—versus Trump’s 9.4%.A mandate for Hillary this ain’t."http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2016/05/progressives-dont-let-friends-vote-neocon.html

Even with a win, Vermont senator unlikely to meaningfully reduce front-runner’s delegate advantage

....While Tuesday’s balloting was in Indiana, Mrs. Clinton spent no money on TV ads and appeared at just three campaign rallies in the state. Campaign officials, braced for a defeat, said they were husbanding funds raised for the primary campaign to spend later this spring and summer in states likely to be competitive in the fall....

Mr. Sanders was hoping a victory could help his fundraising and fuel his argument for staying in the race, but even a win wasn’t likely to meaningfully reduce her advantage.

Mr. Sanders made a strong play for Indiana’s 83 pledged delegates, spending $1.5 million in TV ads and headlining a half-dozen rallies. State rules were in his favor, allowing independents, who typically favor him, to participate in the primary.

Read more athttp://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-seeks-indiana-win-as-hillary-clinton-looks-to-november-1462317357#:RwfVuZRS9PDOkA

Cruz dropped out for a reason and not to concede to Trump. The GOP has something up its sleeve. It's not like them just to give up and say "whatever, let's just let Hillary have it". There is something afoot...I'd bet my bottom dollar.

This is not an insult so whoever is touchy about this, you can pull your panties out of your ass.

Look at Melania's head and eyes while Donald is giving his Indiana speech. Her head is still and all you see is her dark iris going back and forth within all that black makeup. Reminds me of Batman's beady eyes.

Good one from Ben Howe, "Ann Coulter, Gateway Pundit, Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, Sean Hannity, Bill O’Reilly, Sarah Palin, Breitbart News, Matt Drudge, and scores of others, too many to list here. They are all people that at one time or another caused me to bury my face in my hands. Caused me more than once to say “wait…we ARE the stupid party?”

I’m done with it and I’m done with all of them. They are in this for money and power and influence and they think Donald Trump is their ticket. Hell, they may be right. And I’ll go down in flames with my principles before I join them."http://www.redstate.com/aglanon/2016/05/02/i-lied-to-myself-for-years/

Has hell frozen over ? Bahahahahaha MSNBC was wrong, Nate Silver @ 86% was wrong The all seeing Jesse was wrong ROTFLMBO , There has been a delegate correction in Missouri and with Indiana tonight there are only 204 pledged delegates between Bernie and Hillary and with W. Virgina and Kentucky next that margin will become even smaller , The pre ordained Superdelegates are now sitting up in their seats and thinking WTF is going on ? With the Republican nomination all but over all eyes are going to be on the Democrats and there is only one candidate who doesn't like to be looked at too closely because once people see their flip flopping on issues and their right leaning policies the less they like her. The Bern is heating up and its going to be a scorcher in California : )

Sorry 8:11. It's your math that's incorrect. As the communications director for the DNC pointed out to Jake Tapper last week, the superdelegates don't vote until the convention and can't be counted yet. fivethirtyeight.com is where the most accurate pledged delegate count is.

Clinton can't get the 2,383 needed to win the nomination from pledged delegates in the remaining primaries. She'll need superdelegate votes to make up the difference. By the Democratic Party's own convention rules that is by definition a contested convention.

Latest news is Kasich is dropping out, too so there's no horse race left in the Repub party. Watch how fast the media drops superdelegates from their delegate totals and declares the Dem race is now a real horse race. This is an outstanding bit of good fortune for Sanders who'll get the media attention he deserves and bad news for Clinton because she could lose if she doesn't get her head back in the match she's playing instead of the next one.

About Me

This blog is dedicated to finding the truth, exposing the lies, and holding our politicians and leaders accountable when they fall far short of the promises that they have made to both my fellow Alaskans and the American people.