The "Financial Crash/Economic Depression"

In the footsteps of Karl Marx's failed prediction that the rate of profit will fall over time leading to the downfall of capitalism (Capital, Volume 3, 1894)...

"Since my Summer 1956 forecast of a deep recession to strike suddenly, somewhere during the February-March interval, I have never published a forecast for the U.S. economy which did not occur as I had foreseen." (36)

"Every forecast I've ever published has been confirmed. I'm the most successful economic forecaster in existence, today, on this planet !" (26)

Let's have a look at "former" Marxist LaRouche's own public record...

1956

There is no evidence of his "Summer 1956 forecast of a deep recession to strike suddenly, somewhere during the February-March interval"...

But in 1961 "Lynn Marcus" (aka Lyndon LaRouche) published: "Depression Ahead?" (International Socialist Review, Winter;, New York) where he "forecast" JF Kennedy will adopt "Schacht’s Nazi policy" which will lead towards either "war or a social crisis" within the next ten years:

"While the US economy is much stronger, has far greater resources and alternatives than Hitler’s Germany, Kennedy’s economic program is as full of economic contradictions as Schacht’s. Schacht’s program put the Nazi economy through a series of financial crises that finally forced Germany to plunge into war as the only possible means for solving its internal economic problems. Schacht’s “guns for butter” and Kennedy-Galbraith’s “public works instead of wages” programs are essentially the same in principle with essentially the same inevitable consequences. On the American scene, Kennedy’s “New Frontier” will lead inevitably to either war or a social crisis; it is extremely probable that that decision will be faced within the next ten years. During the next two years Kennedy will put the US economy more and more on a war-economy footing, with corresponding political and economic forms of regimentation. Faced with repeated recession crises the administration will resort to successively more desperate and extreme measures. To the degree that the “New Frontier” postpones the depression it will, to the degree that it builds up the colonial economies, increase the peril to the dollar on the international market."

"WE THINK there is no possible doubt that Kennedy will follow the general program we have outlined for him. The “New Deal” is dying; he has only one choice. The great question, the only important practical question, is how and when the working class will react to the betrayals and abuse the Kennedy regime has inevitably in store for it." (25)

The following year he reiterates his "forecast":

"The fact is that this class (capitalist , note) is facing a very probable social and economic crisis within a decade, and that the only hope of the capitalist class for its continued survival as a class is to establish the most brutal regimentation of the world with bayonets, gas ovens, or whatever other forms of oppression may be necessary to maintain a brutally accelerated rate of exploitation." (33)

Some ten years later, in 1971 he forecast a "World Depression" to occur that year or the following year in 1972:

"Unless the Nixon regime abruptly abandons its "non-negotiable demands" position toward leading foreign bankers, thedepression could conceivably have begun by the time this pamphlet gets back from the printers, or might arrive just in time for Christmas. If the Nixon regime abruptly turns toward a more sensible world monetary policy, the depression might be delayed into early or middle 1972.

The depression cannot be prevented, but it could be delayed."
In "Socialism or Fascism?" (Preface) NCLC, 1971, published in The CAMPAIGNER "Strategy for Socialism" (Vol. 1), 1973.

"Unless socialist governments are established in the U.S.A. and key sectors of Western Europe during the next several years, the coming capitalist depression means an end to the existence of humanity as we know it. From the standpoint of theoretical economics, the predicament of the entire advanced capitalist sector coming depression will be like that of the economy in 1933. The continuation of the capitalist system into the latter part of this decade means fascism. Fascism, in turn, means nuclear holocaust by the end of the 1970's..."In FASCISM: FINAL STAGE OF CAPITALISM, NCLC, Sept. 1971, published in The CAMPAIGNER "Strategy for Socialism" (Vol. 1), 1973)

1974

"October 1974 marked the opening phase of a major depression which will surpass in length and severity the "Great Contraction" of 1929-32"(18)

1975

1976

LaRouche warns of a total monetary collapse in July-September or next year.

"At maximum, the fascist, genocidal policy of the dominant Atlanticists is a short- to intermediate-term alternative to immediate July-September total monetary collapse. Extended into 1977 the remedy becomes worse than the disease." (14)

1977

1978

1979

LaRouche says "Stop the Crash of 1979 Now" (1)

1980

"We are, in short, six months into a full-fledged Schachtian economy, and rapidly approaching the crisis point that the Nazi economy underwent in 1936-1938, when the productive resources of Germany were no longer sufficient to meet the demands of Hitler's war machine"

1985

LaRouche (together with "Moscow") considers the U.S. economy will collapse by 1985-86

"Moscow is hoping for a general collapse of the U.S. economy by no later than 1986, and expects the collapse into a new and deep world depression to erupt during 1985. If the United States continues to work within the guidelines of present U.S. Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund policies, the new economic depression which Moscow expects will probably explode during the months, or even weeks ahead, and, certainly, could not be postponed much past the end of the present year [1985, note]." (8)

1986

LaRouche warns of a financial blow-out in 1986-87

"This year [1986, note], or next, the U.S. financial system will experience a blow-out, assuming that no radical change in policies intervenes to prevent this." (13)

"The Reagan `economic upsurge' never occurred, and under present U.S. economic policies, the United States is sliding into a new world depression. " "The Recovery That Never Was", special report, November 8, 1986)

May 1987

LaRouche considers "financial officials"'s forecast of an oct.1987 crash as "not absolutely certain, but ... a very good guess":

"Leading European financial officials have warned my associates that we should expect to see the beginning of the world's biggest financial crash by October of this year. My comment on that forecast: It might not occur in just that way, but if the Reagan administration continues its present policies, it is certain that the world's economic situation will become much worse than it is today over the summer months. (...) Whether the great financial crash of 1987 erupts by October, or later will depend upon what leading governments do at the international monetary "summit" held in Venice on June 12. Those bankers who are expecting a crash by October make that forecast on the basis of assuming that the U.S. government's role at Venice will be a continuation of the foolish international monetary policy which the Reagan administration has followed over the past five years. In that case, a crash in October would not be absolutely certain, but it would be, at least, a very good guess." (3)

THEN here comes the Crash of Oct. 19, 1987 ("Black Monday")...

LaRouchelyingly says "he" supplied the "correct date" for the Oct. 1987 financial crash, ignoring this forecast came from "leading European financial officials"!

"I, like Aeschylos' Prometheus, have warned that these policies are leading to precisely the sort of doom of Olympos which exploded on "Black Monday." As early as May 1987 I even supplied what is now proven to have been the correct date for the first eruption of a general collapse of the international financial bubble, the biggest international financial crash in history." (4)

Note: It is untrue. Fidel Castro echoed this "prediction" as early as... 1985 and was published in... LaRouche's own publications!. Castro said: "The count-down of the time bomb of the "debt crisis" [English in original] could reach zero in 1988. The indebted countries will not be able to pay their accounts in 1986, if they are able to honor their interest obligations in 1985. Then the crack appears in 1987 and the castle comes down on top of the king in 1988. The forecast is not only mine. The prophesy also comes from some American economists and certain European bankers. One of these economists just came through Havana. I don't know if he is a good prophet, but he has a Nobel Prize in economics." (19)

This LaRouche's lie has become a "myth" to this day as he recently repeated:

"During June 1987, I had repeatedly forecast, publicly, that unless certain remedial actions were taken during the Summer of that year, the first weeks of that October would see a stock-exchange crisis comparable to 1929. It happened exactly as, and when I had forecast such an event to occur." (27)

Nov. 1987

LaRouche warns that a "second bigger shock" will hit soon

"Let us sum up the situation facing us. "Yes, John, we are plunging into the Second Great Depression of this century, potentially a depression much worse than that of the 193Os.[...]" The first shock of the biggest financial crash in history has happened. The next, bigger shock is about to hit, either immediately, or soon enough." (5)

1988

LaRouche on national television,explaining the "bouncing ball" principle of the financial markets.He said: "We are now at the brink of the worst world-wide financial crisis-collapse in modern times." (From "Test of Fire" national broadcast, April 5, 1988)

Meanwhile, the editors of E.I.R. were publishing every week these comparative charts between the crash of 1929-30 and of 1987-88. BUT... by mid-1988 they eventually stopped this intellectual exercise. Why? Click here.

July 1989

LaRouche warns that the "second bigger shock" is about to hit by October

"This year, a second, bigger financial shock is building up steam for a probable October eruption. As the October 1987 bang was parallel to the October 1929 crash, the next one parallels the collapse of September 1931, the collapse which plunged the United States into the Great Depression of the 1930s." (7)

Sept. 1989

LaRouche warns that the "second bigger shock" will hit either by October ... or by March next year

"I think there's an 80% chance we'll have a major financial market crash type of crisis during October, probably plus or minus the tenth of that month." LaRouche predicted. "That' s about a 75-80% likelihood at this point; and if not then, certainly a 95% likelihood, by March. That' s about the way it stands now." (9)

1990

LaRouche repeats his forecast of a financial shock by March-April

"Therefore, I said, that if they do that which they're perfectly capable of doing, that will mean we'll begin to feel a new decline in the markets following October, after Christmas, in January. And then I said that the probability is that by the March 10-April 10 period, there will be a 95% probability that the major crash of this round will have occurred. So today, I say that's the way she stands." (12)

. . . and confirms his earlier "forecasts"

"Each time I have put my neck out to commit myself to a forecast warning, I have been proven correct, and within the general time frame which I specified, by my method of forecasting -- not by somebody else's crystal ball method. I was right in 1987. I was right in 1989, in giving the percentiles, ranging from 75% in October to 95% in April, for the second crash, following the 1987 one, to erupt between October 1989 and the middle of April 1990. The financial system is now crashing down." (15)

1991

"The Great Mudslide of 1991"

LAROUCHE: "Many people have been looking for a definitive one-day, two-day, three-day financial crash, perhaps on the markets, with the New York Dow-Jones (sometimes called Baby Jones) Index, collapsing 500 or 1000 points or something like that. What they are seeing is something a bit different. What they are seeing is the great mudslide of 1991."

"What is going to happen, obviously, beginning now, but coming to a head in 1992, is the collapse of the Anglo-American monetary and financial system, upon our heads -- the whole system." (11)

1992

LaRouche says: "As of this point, the world has officially entered into the second and greatest worldwide depression of the 20th century." (22)

1994

Lyndon LaRouche issued his so-called "9th Forecast"and predicts a global financial collapse this year or later ...

"The presently existing global financial and monetary system will disintegrate during the near term. The collapse might occur this spring, or summer, or next autumn; it could come next year, it will almost certainly occur during President William Clinton' s first term in office; it will occur soon. That collapse into disintegration is inevitable..." (10)

LaRouche forecasts the worst financial collapse of the Twentieth Century this year or as late as early 1997.

"The worst financial collapse of the Twentieth Century could erupt within as soon as weeks, or, in the unlikely case, the disintegration of the system could be postponed until as late as early 1997. " (16)

LaRouche also writes:

"The present writer has forecast just this danger--repeatedly, consistently, and accurately--during the past 30 years..." (16),

contradicting himself from his last year claim to be such an economic forecaster for the last 40 years!!! -(10)-'

See: comment on the "crash" of 1997

THE "TRIPLE CURVE"...

1996

1997

...the second big financial blow of 1997 will hit soon...

"At any time, soon, the second big financial blow of 1997 will bring a new round of temporary panic into financial markets around the world. If it has not already arrived by the time you read this report, you may expect it to arrive, soon. [...] During the recent weeks, most of those highly-placed sources, with whom EIR is in frequent discussion of these matters, have expressed agreement with my estimate, that the next international financial crunch is due soon, and that, when it strikes, it will be much worse than the crunch which hit beginning mid-March." (24)

The crash will occur between August and October...

"Sometime very soon, between now and the end of the year, possibly in the month of August—more probably, no later than October, but certainly by around the end of the year—this world is going to go through one or two of the greatest shocks, financial shocks of the century."

1998

1999

"a wildly uncontrolled global financial crash, is inevitable for the near future. Whether before New Year's Day 2000, or not, is still in doubt. " (17)

...and has already occurred since February

"...the real crash is already here. It has been here since February 1999." (17)

... or will occur in September or October, but in fact, it is already happening!

"This operation is designed to anticipate a deadly social crisis’s eruption under the conditions of the world ﬁnancial meltdown expected for the interval between September 9, 1999 and the close of the year. No one I know—and I do have many high-level sources in various parts of the world—can give me a deﬁnite date, other than “soon, perhaps next week, perhaps October,” for the expected date of the chain-reaction collapse of the world’s ﬁnancial system. However, that kind of collapse, of a kind far worse than October 1929, is already onrushing; it is not something which could happen; it is something which, in fact, is already happening." (35)

"We're headed now, as I've said before, and we're on the edge of it still, for the worst financial crisis in more than 100 years, probably worse than in several hundred years. It's going to hit very soon, it's rumbling. [...] But very soon, it's going to hit the U.S. population with the equivalent of what we experienced on Dec. 7, 1941, with the bombing of Pearl Harbor. "

2001

LaRouche predicts the financial system will collapse by the end of year:

"We are now in the depths of a systemic financial crisis, that, if war does not break out between now and the end of the year, or if there are not assassinations of key figures from among international leaders during this period, by the end of year, purely and simply, the present financial system will have collapsed."

In an interview given on Telemax TV and radio, Sonora, Mexico, they asked LaRouche:

Telemax : Mr. LaRouche, about 20 years ago, you forecast an economic crisis, of the sort we're experiencing today. How did you know that this was going to happen, and what are the measures that can be taken to solve this crisis?

LaRouche: Well, this was foreseeable, if you looked at the axiomatic features, [...]And those mistakes were never corrected. Therefore, the crash was inevitable..." here

2002

"...The time is short; the end of the existing system is now. We're talking about weeks, at most, a couple of months, before the banking system centered in New York disintegrates. We're talking about a collapse of the housing bubble, internationally, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, and similar effects in Europe...."

2009

LaRouche predicts a complete breakdown of the global financial and economic system by October 12 (28):

"My estimate is that a complete breakdown of the global financial and economic system is highly likely around the 10th to 15th of October--say Oct. 12, after the end of the U.S. government's fiscal year,'' LaRouche warned. "We're looking at a threatened potential, total, chain reaction breakdown of the U.S. and the world. " (31)

"Unless a purgative system of bankruptcy is put into effect very soon, the entire world system of nation-states will soon disintegrate, one after the other, chain-reaction style. It could come as soon as some time in October. [...] This could be stopped now, if my proposal for a reorganization-in-bankruptcy converts certain leading nations from the present international monetary system, into a credit-system of the type prescribed by the U.S. Federal Constitution. Otherwise, the doom is already inevitable." (29)

"During the recent days, I have presented a series of reports bearing on the matter of the nature and causes of the presently onrushing October crisis of both the U.S.A.'s and the world's current entry into the crucial phase of a global economic-breakdown crisis. I have indicated the first half of October as a crucial period of phase-shift into the actuality of the already looming, initial onset of that actual breakdown. Here, I restate the case with special emphasis on identifying the probable forms in which the present inevitability of that phase-shift might be expressed during the weeks immediately ahead. [...] Now, as the ominous month of October descends upon the entire planet, a new, greater existential crisis than that, has arisen from among the nations of the world. October is the setting which promises an onrushing economic breakdown-crisis world-wide. At this time, there is no good reason to doubt either that the October 2009 entry into a new U.S. fiscal year, defines a general breakdown of the monetary-financial system of not only the U.S. economy, or, that this monetary-breakdown-crisis will now reverberate as the common ruin of nations throughout the world. " (30)

2010

LaRouche predicts that the world economic system is about to go into a general collapse before November :

"The overall situation is that the world system, starting with the United States, the world economic system is about to go into a general collapse. This is not something gradual. It's something that can happen in a short period of a matter of days or even hours! The triggers can be triggered, and you will have a breakdown, which will be irreversible, on this planet, for generations to come. We are at that point: We are at a point of an implosion of the entire international monetary-financial system. And it's now! And it will not wait, until after the November election!" (32)

2011

LaRouche predicts a global, chain-reaction collapse of the present international, trans-Atlantic system for about July 10.

"We are at the brink of a global, chain-reaction collapse of the present international, trans-Atlantic system. A probable date for this, unless the Glass-Steagall law of 1933 is restored by emergency legislation, is a date presently scheduled in the U.S.A. for about July 10, 2011. [...] Even adjustments of the deadline were shifted by some fraudulent pretext in the name of Constitutional law which might affect the exact date of the chain-reaction collapse, the attempted shift of the date of the deadline would only slightly delay what were otherwise inevitable." (34)

EVEN A STOPPED CLOCK IS RIGHT TWICE A DAY!

In conclusion:

The fact is that LaRouche's intentions are NOT to convince anybody except his own adepts who are poorly informed and certainly not educated in the sciences of economics! His repeated "end-of-the-world"/ Armageddon Doom prophet predictions serve three purposes:1. To maintain the "hysteria/fear" levels high in his organization, essential for keeping his adepts "mobilized" and raise money, 2. To present himself as a Genius/Prophet/Savior who can not only "see" the upcoming catastrophe but (thank God or... LaRouche?) has the solution for it!3. Since all of his "predictions" were WRONG, this is to test his adepts' blind faith and force them into this practice of collective "self-brainwashing" called AMNESIA. Forget about the previous (failed) predictions, they NEVER existed and if needed, History could be re-written. This is the "Orwellian" side of the LaRouche organization... What is important is to BELIEVE LAROUCHE WAS ALWAYS RIGHT.

Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels made several predictions in their 1848 Communist Manifesto. By 1890, most of the Manifesto's predictions did not occur. Such as: the inevitable economic breakdown of capitalism ("in the near future") and a scenario for how the world, in general, and the “class struggle,” in particular, would unfold over the coming decades, ending the misery of the working classes. In Das Kapital (Volume 3) Marx does make the prediction that the "rate of profit will fall over time", and this is one of the factors which leads to the downfall of capitalism.All of Marx's major predictions have turned out to be wrong. He said that societies based on a market economy would suffer spiraling class polarization and the disappearance of the middle class. Every society lucky enough to enjoy the fruits of a market economy shows that Marx was wrong about that. He predicted the growing immiseration and impoverishment of the working class in capitalist societies. (Actually, he didn't merely predict that it would happen, he predicted that it would happen necessarily and inevitably. The opposite has happened. Indeed, as (Polish philosopher Leszek) Kolakowski notes, "in the second edition of Capital Marx updated various statistics and figures, but not those relating to workers' wages; those figures, if updated, would have contradicted his theory." (Source: Message to Karl Marx : Dude, you were so WRONG!)

Debate with Abba Lerner in 1971 as a proof of a conspiracy to isolate him from the "economists' community"... LaRouche failed to get a diploma as an economist and enjoys pretending to be a "pariah" -to avoid being confronted with other economists... LaRouche's Fateful Debate With Abba Lerner