The generation gap on climate change

More and more Australians are voicing support for climate change science, which suggests there could be trouble ahead for the Prime Minister as he looks to axe the carbon tax, write Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.

Acid seas, famine, war, human extinction: scientists must be wondering what other horror they could possibly throw at us to convince us of the real and present danger of climate change.

Now the voters of Western Australia have delivered a jolt greater than any thousand-page report: Clive Palmer in charge of climate policy.

But as the human face of capitalism vows to use his king-making Senate numbers post-July to dump the price on carbon, this week's Essential Report shows that axing the tax is unlikely to be the political panacea the Abbott Government hopes for.

Our polling shows that belief that climate change is real and human-induced is rising.

Most startling is the generation divide - scepticism about the science of climate change is concentrated in the over-55s, with young voters overwhelmingly endorsing the view as prosecuted by the IPCC so forcefully last week that there is no doubt the Earth is warming and humans are responsible.

It seems a self-evident truth that the pain wrought on the Gillard Government by its move to price carbon could be reversed by simply eliminating the toxin.

But that assumption underestimates the complexity of both the issue of climate change and the factors that brought the Gillard government undone.

Essential has tracked over many years the link between belief in the science of climate change and support for political action to address it. During the fury of Australia's carbon tax debate, we saw belief in human-induced climate change fall and a rise in scepticism and disengaged "don't knows".

This week, we've recorded our highest-ever level of support for the view climate change is real since we started asking the question in 2009, and a corresponding decline in sceptics and fence-sitters.

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity, or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth's climate which happens from time to time?

Total

Nov 09

Dec 10

Jun 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Jan 14

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

56%

53%

45%

50%

48%

52%

51%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth's climate

34%

34%

36%

39%

39%

36%

39%

Don't know

10%

13%

19%

12%

13%

12%

11%

Support for the view that climate change is real has jumped five points since January, suggesting that once the political noise is out of the way, it's safe to listen to the scientists again.

And while there is a partisan divide on the issue - with Coalition voters significantly more inclined to believe the 'normal fluctuation' proposition - the most notable split in views on climate change is driven by age.

There is a steady decline in belief in climate science as we progress up the age scale. While 70 per cent of 18 to 24 year old voters believe climate change is real, that drops to just 39 per cent of over 65 year olds:

Age

Agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

18-24

70%

25-34

62%

35-44

59%

45-54

56%

55-64

45%

65+

39%

It seems concern about climate change is directly related to the amount of time a person has left on the planet. Our polling can't tell us why, but perhaps older voters don't want to see what their generations are leaving behind.

And while we're divided on what to do about climate change - or not - it's clear the Abbott Government's Direct Action policy isn't going to satisfy anyone much at all.

Q. Which of the following actions on climate change do you most support?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Keeping the carbon tax

17%

27%

6%

29%

19%

Replacing the carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme

22%

30%

14%

35%

19%

Replacing the carbon tax with the Liberal's "direct action" plan

12%

4%

23%

4%

13%

Dumping the carbon tax and not replacing it at all

30%

19%

44%

9%

35%

Don't know

19%

20%

13%

23%

15%

With its tree planting and direct subsidies to business the preferred option of just 12 per cent of voters, the Liberals have managed to produce a climate policy even less popular than the carbon tax.

Under 35s are more inclined to support keeping the carbon tax or replacing it with an emissions trading scheme - over 55s are more likely to support dumping the carbon tax and not replacing it - but younger voters are also most highly represented in the "don't knows".

The Abbott Government may be counting down until July when the new Senate kicks in, so he can deliver on his election promise backed in by Clive 'retrospective repeal' Palmer.

But having used the carbon tax while in Opposition to so effectively spearhead a wrecking campaign centred more on trust than anything to do with the environment, Abbott may find climate policy comes back to bite him in new and unforeseen ways.

While the science issue will continue to be hotly debated, our finding suggest that the generation gap could emerge as a clear political divide - between those who will need to address global warming and those who won't be around long enough to reap what they have sown.

Because as the flat-earthers take control of the Federal Government, more Australians than ever have come to the conclusion that the Earth is in fact round.

The survey was conducted online April 4-7, 2014, and is based on 1,055 respondents.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications. View his full profile here. Jackie Woods is a communications consultant at Essential Media Communications. View her full profile here.