Tuesday, February 7, 2012

PAP attacking Singaporeans again 2

If you see a few similar scenarios described below played out in MSM, it usually means PAP will start hammering Singaporeans hard for the next few weeks. First, MSM will usually carry a report on aging Japan, which is nothing but mis-informations and half-truth. Next, some clowns from PAP will spew poison usually about something like if we do not accept more FT, we will be next Japan.

Others will accuse Singaporeans being racist, xenophobic and remind us that our ancestors are FT as well.

All these idiots are playing the role of similar to somebody called John the Baptist. The PAP stooges are setting the stage for Kuan Yew. Finally, the old idiot appears, repeating his same old mantra again and again.

1) Singaporeans is going to be extinct if we do not accept FT. FT here to redeem Singaporeans.
2) FT is going to feed our old folks.
3) FT take care of our old.
4) FT create jobs for Singaporeans.
5) FT make Singapore vibrant
6) Singapore is "too big" and population "too small", we need more people
..ecetera, ecetera.....

Not true that every developed society will have low TFRWhile its true that as a country prosper, fertility will drop, but experiences from other developed society has demonstrated that low fertility could be reversed. This includes countries like USA, New Zealand, Ireland, France, UK, Iceland...etc, which have fertility rate more or close to 2. In particular France and Iceland accomplish reasonable fertility rate through policies that providing adequate social service and support, as well as regulations to reduce social tensions.

How the genocide worksOur disappointing fertility rate has a lot to do with our stressful lifestyle, high indebtedness due to property and job insecurity. Instead, of improving the above social ills, PAP mass import foreigners, making the matter worse. Meanwhile PAP justify their immigration policies giving reasons that Singaporean are not producing. The relentless influx of foreigners acerbates the exact social ills that sterilize Singaporean.

And when Singapore's fertility rate drops further, PAP import even more foreigners. The vicious cycle goes on and on and it seems that PAP is targeting a fertility rate of zero for Singaporean. When Singaporean has zero baby, PAP can proudly give reasons why they need to import the whole world.

Singapore's demographic time bomb and hell in making
Even without further immigration, I estimate our population as follows.

Right now at 5 million population, Singapore population will peak at around 5.5 million in 15-20 years time, if current fertility rate of 1.16 continues. If Singapore improve its procreation to TFR of 2.1, which is the ideal case for population planner, our population probably will hit in 20-30 years to about 8-9 million and probably peak at even higher population further down.

In whatever outcome, Singapore's population is likely to explode further. Even if we hit the best outcome of 2.1 TFR, we will still be heading down to disaster of at least 8-9 million of population at a certain point of time. Then, Singapore will be extremely crowded. The property price will rocket stratospherically. At that time, the price of a 5 room HDB flat today may be just enough for a space for toilet bowl. Singapore will be worse than hell.

However, an import of millions more foreigners and a TFR of zero looks more like the outcome instead.

Spreading fear that old man need people to look afterRecently, we have been receiving frequently bombardment of sinking into the despair aging society that only FT can bail us out. Old man are being described as some burden that requires the support from working adult.

My grandfather need my support? But I really found it quite puzzling. I live with my grandfather who is 100x richer than me. He funded my university, gave me a Porsche the day I got my driving license and a condominium. Instead of me supporting the old, I think is the other way round as my grandfather is giving me S$10,000 every month. (fiction)

Aging society is a problem especially in Europe largely due to its pension system In Europe, due to the pay as you go pension system, aging society would contributes to financial trouble. The old Europeans need wealth transfer from the productive young to survive. In Europe, the old has little savings.

Singapore's old people is a gold mine As long as the old are able to support themselves, they behave like a gold mine. Due to the CPF system, and high saving rates, "in theory" the more people ages the better in some cases.

Instead of transferring wealth from the workers to the old, the reverse happen. The old would start spending on health care, leisure...etc all out of their own pockets creating plenty of jobs for the young people.

Best scenario is the old found themselves so much monies that they actually transfer their wealth to the young as gift, just like my grandfather did to me. Even some of the poor old Singaporeans did not burden anybody. They work hard no matter how miserable the wages. Others indeed rely on their offsprings or society for support.

In the next decades, all Singaporeans are expected to retire with either CPF or housing assets. So, we should not have a serious aging issue. In practice, we have a problem. (will discuss in part 2, you guess who sabotage us)

In many countries, retirement is a big business Countries like Thailand are destinations for retirees from Japan and western countries. The more old men coming to Thailand, the better for them. The old retirees stimulate consumption and create jobs. Many old men took young Thai wives and when they died, huge amount of wealth are transferred to their Thai wives.

Kuan Yew stated that "there would not be enough people to look after the old and work the economy at the same time". In theory, 100% of the productive adult in a country can work just to take care of the rich retirees and do nothing else. It itself is a lucrative business.

So is aging society good or bad? Aging society economics is paradoxical. In addition the elites do not want you to understand the subjects. Part 2 will further explain.

I also wrote that its deceptive to say FT support the old. The FT does not transfer directly a single cent to the old in the tax system. The transfer to the old take place if FT rent a house from our old folks, anyway, this benefit the elites and landlord more than the old.

We do not need FT (talent) or migrant to look after the old, just a few maid will do. No Singaporeans ever oppose importing maid.

I have to stop now even though I have not yet finished the write up. PAP's madness affect me badly when I was writing this blog.

7 comments:

Anonymous
said...

"PAP's madness affect me badly..."this is exactly how i feel whenever they start talking,real choking, i meant it. i bet most singaporeans have the same collective feeling too. why can't pap ever notice this? it is unbelievable they still think they can gloss over everything just by talking. it is like watching the same lousy movie over and over again. LKY's talking were full of flaws, sometimes at odd with his own previous views. i too felt sick to debunk it.need to pour it out as we share the same feeling.

The young Ft supports old folks? Let us see how the US deals with its social security payment to its babyboomers in the next few years, the US has the healthiest immigration rate (hispanics) among "developed countries". neither their taxes nor social security has improved.

The point on France is that magreb immigration since the 1970s have boosted demographics, it is not the locals whose fertlity rates have gone up faster, but the magrebs' fertility rate has been higher than the locals. ironicall as onion pointed out, this higher population growth rate among the immigrants have caused huge social problems for France. Take a train to Marseille, when the train door opens, you think you are in africa. I know, I lived there for ages. Indiscriminate immigration is recipe for diaaster, especially when supported by civil servants whose only goal is to chase GDP growth and politicians are sold to bankers in search of more bubbles in real estate. Btw why would anyone inside PAP rock the boast, the race is on to the post senior era, whoever moves first would be shot down. So Cat Lim is partially correct, PAP cannot reform itself, but post-senior, who knows.!