Author Archive

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Cleveland Indians

OWAR: 41.6 OWS: 262 OPW%: .500 (81-81)

AWAR: 26.7 AWS: 204 APW%: .420 (68-94)

WARdiff: 14.9 WSdiff: 58

The “Original” 2003 Indians came within one game of the American League Central Division title as the White Sox held off the Tribe and the Twins. Jim Thome launched a League-leading 47 moon-shots and drove in a career-best 131 baserunners. He scored 111 runs, drew 111 bases on balls and earned his highest finish in the MVP balloting (fourth). Manny Ramirez scorched the opposition with a .325 BA, 37 wallops, 104 ribbies, 117 runs scored and a League-best OBP of .427. Richie Sexson (.272/45/124) matched his career-best in home runs and fell one short of his top RBI mark. Brian S. Giles suffered a drop in production from his previous four campaigns but still managed to belt 20 long balls while posting a .299 BA. “The Mayor” Sean Casey hit at a .291 clip but otherwise failed to deliver the power output expected from a first baseman. The lineup for the “Actual” 2003 Indians featured Milton Bradley (.321/10/56) and rookie outfielder Jody Gerut (.279/22/75).

Omar Vizquel (61st-SS) and Ellis Burks (77th-CF) placed in the top 100 player rankings according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract among members of the “Actuals” roster.

Original 2003 Indians Actual 2003 Indians

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

STARTING LINEUP

POS

AWAR

AWS

Manny Ramirez

LF

3.63

26.99

Matt Lawton

LF

1.07

9.65

Brian S. Giles

CF/LF

5.09

24.55

Milton Bradley

CF

4.21

18.53

Dustan Mohr

RF

0.52

7.06

Jody Gerut

RF

1.98

14.24

Richie Sexson

DH/1B

4.13

24.93

Travis Hafner

DH

0.8

7.4

Jim Thome

1B

4.56

28.67

Ben Broussard

1B

0.59

8.77

John McDonald

2B

-0.43

2.04

Brandon Phillips

2B

-1.22

4.28

Jhonny Peralta

SS

0.16

4.22

Omar Vizquel

SS

0.11

5.25

Russell Branyan

3B

0.44

5.82

Casey Blake

3B

0.51

11.48

Einar Diaz

C

0.63

4.75

Josh Bard

C

0.81

6.35

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

Sean Casey

1B

-0.27

14.88

Coco Crisp

CF

-0.17

6.51

David Bell

3B

0.12

4.42

Shane Spencer

RF

0.69

4.99

Kelly Stinnett

C

-0.07

3.49

Ellis Burks

DH

0.38

4.76

Victor Martinez

C

0.27

3.36

Jhonny Peralta

SS

0.16

4.22

Damian Jackson

2B

-0.44

1.85

Ryan Ludwick

RF

0.56

3.94

Marco Scutaro

2B

0.19

1.81

Victor Martinez

C

0.27

3.36

Julius Matos

3B

-0.14

0.6

Alex Escobar

RF

0.51

3.01

Zach Sorensen

2B

-0.28

0.32

Tim Laker

C

-0.1

2.71

Mike Edwards

DH

0.03

0.19

John McDonald

2B

-0.43

2.04

Herbert Perry

1B

-0.3

0.07

Angel Santos

2B

0.05

1.47

Mark Budzinski

CF

-0.09

0.03

Chris Magruder

LF

0.32

1.42

Mike Glavine

1B

-0.09

0.01

Ricky Gutierrez

SS

-0.08

0.79

Mitch Meluskey

–

-0.04

0

Greg LaRocca

3B

0.06

0.39

Zach Sorensen

2B

-0.28

0.32

Bill Selby

3B

-0.5

0.3

Karim Garcia

RF

-0.51

0.22

Bartolo Colon (15-13, 3.87) fashioned a WHIP of 1.198 and topped the American League with 9 complete games. Six-time All-Star lefthander C.C. Sabathia (13-9, 3.60) appeared in his first Mid-Summer Classic. David Riske notched 8 saves and a 0.964 WHIP along with a personal-best 2.29 ERA. Danys Baez (3.81, 25 SV) and Julian Tavarez (3.60, 11 SV) bolstered the relief corps.

Original 2003 Indians Actual 2003 Indians

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Bartolo Colon

SP

5.23

17.34

CC Sabathia

SP

3.86

12.89

CC Sabathia

SP

3.86

12.89

Brian Anderson

SP

0.32

6.67

Jason Davis

SP

0.07

5.13

Jake Westbrook

SP

1.12

5.8

Danny Graves

SP

-0.4

3.4

Jason Davis

SP

0.07

5.13

Jason Stanford

SP

1.03

2.85

Billy Traber

SP

0.05

2.96

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

David Riske

RP

2.07

9.84

David Riske

RP

2.07

9.84

Julian Tavarez

RP

0.52

9.19

Danys Baez

RP

0.28

8.61

Danys Baez

RP

0.28

8.61

Jack Cressend

RP

0.95

4.05

Curt Leskanic

RP

1.72

8.09

Rafael Betancourt

RP

0.86

3.92

Paul Shuey

RP

0.55

6.62

Jason Boyd

RP

0.18

3.19

Steve Kline

RP

0.44

5.05

Jason Stanford

SP

1.03

2.85

Alan Embree

RP

0.68

4.91

Terry Mulholland

RP

-0.62

2.71

Mike Matthews

RP

-0.18

2.91

Cliff Lee

SP

0.42

2.69

Jaret Wright

RP

-1.84

1.31

Jose Santiago

RP

0.51

2.28

Travis Driskill

RP

-0.95

0.64

Dan Miceli

RP

0.38

1.54

Charles Nagy

RP

-0.11

0.17

Carl Sadler

RP

0.29

0.92

Brian Tallet

SP

-0.23

0.14

Ricardo Rodriguez

SP

-0.62

0.59

Mike Bacsik

SP

-0.86

0

David Lee

RP

-0.01

0.51

Ryan Drese

SP

-0.85

0

Jason Bere

SP

0.11

0.32

Tim Drew

SW

-0.58

0

Brian Tallet

SP

-0.23

0.14

Alex Herrera

RP

-0.35

0

Nick Bierbrodt

RP

-0.19

0

Albie Lopez

RP

-1.49

0

David Cortes

RP

-0.32

0

Robert Person

RP

-0.29

0

Chad Durbin

SP

-0.57

0

Rudy Seanez

RP

-0.17

0

Dave Elder

RP

-0.37

0

Matt White

RP

-0.93

0

Alex Herrera

RP

-0.35

0

Aaron Myette

RP

-0.5

0

Chad Paronto

RP

-0.44

0

Jason Phillips

RP

-0.24

0

Jerrod Riggan

RP

-0.19

0

Notable Transactions

Jim Thome

October 28, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

December 6, 2002: Signed as a Free Agent with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Manny Ramirez

October 27, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Richie Sexson

July 28, 2000: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with a player to be named later, Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. The Cleveland Indians sent Marco Scutaro (August 30, 2000) to the Milwaukee Brewers to complete the trade.

Brian S. Giles

November 18, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ricardo Rincon.

Bartolo Colon

June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens.

Sean Casey

March 30, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Burba.

Honorable Mention

The 1941 Cleveland Indians

OWAR: 43.0 OWS: 267 OPW%: .545 (84-70)

AWAR: 34.9 AWS: 225 APW%: .487 (75-79)

WARdiff: 8.1 WSdiff: 42

Engaged in heated combat with the Red Sox and Yankees down the stretch in ’41, the Tribe emerged in third place, four games behind Boston. Thornton Lee (22-11, 2.37) topped the Junior Circuit in ERA, WHIP (1.165) and complete games (30) to merit his lone All-Star invitation. Bob Feller (25-13, 3.15) led the League in victories, starts (40), shutouts (6) and innings pitched (343). “Rapid Robert” paced the AL in strikeouts for the fourth consecutive season and placed third in the MVP voting. Jeff Heath (.340/24/123) established career-highs in base hits (199), triples (20), RBI and stolen bases (18) while making his first All-Star appearance. “Old Reliable” Tommy Henrich clubbed a career-best 31 round-trippers and registered 106 tallies. Ken Keltner rapped 31 doubles, 13 triples and 23 circuit clouts. “Old Shufflefoot” Lou Boudreau socked 45 two-baggers and scored 95 runs.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2001 Texas Rangers

OWAR: 48.4 OWS: 278 OPW%: .513 (83-79)

AWAR: 34.2 AWS: 219 APW%: .451 (73-89)

WARdiff: 14.2 WSdiff: 59

The “Original” 2001 Rangers placed third in the American League West behind Seattle and Oakland. Sammy “Say It Ain’t” Sosa (.328/64/160) established personal bests in batting average, runs scored (146), RBI and bases on balls (116) while placing runner-up in the MVP balloting. Rich Aurilia (.324/37/97) contributed career-highs in nearly every batting classification including 114 tallies and 206 safeties. Juan “Igor” Gonzalez (.325/35/140) achieved his third All-Star invite and finished fifth in the American League MVP race. Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez (.308/25/65) merited his tenth straight Gold Glove Award. Jose Hernandez swatted 26 two-baggers and 25 big-flies. The “Actuals” lineup featured Alex Rodriguez (.318/52/135) who paced the circuit in four-baggers and runs scored (133). Rafael Palmeiro (.273/47/123) surpassed the century mark in walks and equaled his single-season HR total. Frank Catalanotto batted at a .330 clip and ripped 31 two-base hits.

July 17, 1993: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Kurt Miller to the Florida Marlins for Cris Carpenter.

November 18, 1997: Traded by the Florida Marlins to the San Francisco Giants for Mick Pageler (minors), Mike Villano (minors) and Joe Fontenot.

Rey Sanchez

January 3, 1990: Traded by the Texas Rangers to the Chicago Cubs for Bryan House (minors).

August 16, 1997: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees for Frisco Parotte (minors).

November 3, 1997: Granted Free Agency.

January 22, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Francisco Giants.

November 5, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 11, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

October 29, 1999: Granted Free Agency.

December 7, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

Jose Hernandez

April 3, 1992: Selected off waivers by the Cleveland Indians from the Texas Rangers.

June 1, 1993: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Chicago Cubs for Heathcliff Slocumb.

July 31, 1999: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Terry Mulholland to the Atlanta Braves for a player to be named later, Micah Bowie and Ruben Quevedo. The Atlanta Braves sent Joey Nation (August 24, 1999) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

November 5, 1999: Granted Free Agency.

December 16, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kevin J. Brown

October 15, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

April 9, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

November 3, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 22, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.

December 15, 1997: Traded by the Florida Marlins to the San Diego Padres for Steve Hoff (minors), Derrek Lee and Rafael Medina.

October 26, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 12, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1999 Chicago White Sox

OWAR: 45.1 OWS: 289 OPW%: .504 (82-80)

AWAR: 28.5 AWS: 225 APW%: .466 (75-86)

WARdiff: 16.6 WSdiff: 64

The “Original” 1999 White Sox tied the Royals for second place in the American League Central, eight games behind the Indians. Robin Ventura (.301/32/120) established career-highs in batting average and RBI while earning his sixth Gold Glove Award at the hot corner. Randy Velarde (.317/16/76) rapped 200 base knocks and set personal-bests in almost every offensive category. Mike Cameron drilled 34 doubles and pilfered 38 bags. Harold Baines (.312/25/103) topped the century mark in RBI for the third time in his career during his age-40 season. Ray Durham registered 109 tallies and swiped 34 bags. Magglio Ordonez (.301/30/117) scored 100 runs and merited his first All-Star invitation. Frank E. Thomas clubbed 36 two-baggers and delivered a .305 BA. Chris Singleton (.300/17/72) placed sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting and Paul Konerko contributed 24 dingers and 81 ribbies for the “Actuals”.

Frank E. Thomas rated tenth among first basemen according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” White Sox chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Robin Ventura (22nd-3B) and Harold Baines (42nd-RF).

Original 1999 White Sox Actual 1999 White Sox

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

Carlos Lee

LF

-0.04

10.36

Carlos Lee

LF

-0.04

10.36

Mike Cameron

CF

3.63

21.44

Chris Singleton

CF

2.61

16.33

Magglio Ordonez

RF

1.7

18.56

Magglio Ordonez

RF

1.7

18.56

Harold Baines

DH

1.7

12.96

Frank E. Thomas

DH

2.2

17.07

Frank E. Thomas

1B/DH

2.2

17.07

Paul Konerko

1B

1.45

14.68

Randy Velarde

2B

5.23

24.19

Ray Durham

2B

3.63

20.45

Liu Rodriguez

SS/2B

-0.12

1.41

Mike Caruso

SS

-2.58

4.25

Robin Ventura

3B

5.1

28.27

Greg Norton

3B

0.06

12.36

Mark Johnson

C

0.28

6.12

Brook Fordyce

C

1.59

11.45

BENCH

POS

OWAR

OWS

BENCH

POS

OWAR

OWS

Ray Durham

2B

3.63

20.45

Mark Johnson

C

0.28

6.12

Greg Norton

3B

0.06

12.36

Craig Wilson

3B

-0.38

4.06

Olmedo Saenz

3B

1.35

8.68

Darrin Jackson

LF

-0.05

2.68

Craig Grebeck

2B

0.82

4.39

Brian Simmons

LF

-0.15

1.76

Craig Wilson

3B

-0.38

4.06

Liu Rodriguez

2B

-0.12

1.41

Brian Simmons

LF

-0.15

1.76

Jeff Liefer

1B

-0.6

0.91

Jeff Liefer

1B

-0.6

0.91

McKay Christensen

CF

-0.27

0.47

Norberto Martin

2B

0.09

0.44

Jason Dellaero

SS

-0.39

0.32

Jason Dellaero

SS

-0.39

0.32

Josh Paul

C

-0.09

0.27

Josh Paul

C

-0.09

0.27

Jeff Abbott

LF

-0.73

0.18

Robert Machado

C

-0.08

0.22

Chris Tremie

C

-0.18

0.18

Jeff Abbott

LF

-0.73

0.18

Frank Menechino

SS

-0.08

0.14

John Cangelosi

LF

-0.06

0.02

Mike Sirotka (11-13, 4.00) and James Baldwin (12-13, 5.00) labored through their second seasons in the Sox rotation. Alex Fernandez supplied a 7-8 record with a 3.38 ERA after missing the entire 1998 campaign due to injury. Bob Wickman notched 37 saves with an ERA of 3.39 for the “Originals” while Keith Foulke (2.22, 9 SV) and Bob Howry (3.59, 28 SV) secured late-inning leads for the “Actuals”.

Original 1999 White Sox Actual 1999 White Sox

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Mike Sirotka

SP

3.94

13.5

Mike Sirotka

SP

3.94

13.5

Alex Fernandez

SP

3.34

10.47

James Baldwin

SP

2.19

9.47

James Baldwin

SP

2.19

9.47

Jim Parque

SP

1.26

6.82

Brian Boehringer

SP

1.64

6.91

Kip Wells

SP

0.79

2.93

Jim Parque

SP

1.26

6.82

Jaime Navarro

SP

-1.15

2.16

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

AWAR

AWS

Bob Wickman

RP

1.33

10.19

Keith Foulke

RP

3.86

16.7

Al Levine

RP

0.77

6.84

Bob Howry

RP

0.61

10.06

Pedro Borbon

RP

0.36

4.11

Sean Lowe

RP

1.58

7.94

Buddy Groom

RP

-0.27

3.49

Bill Simas

RP

0.68

6.46

Steve Schrenk

RP

0.54

3.04

Carlos Castillo

SW

0.05

1.45

Kip Wells

SP

0.79

2.93

John Snyder

SP

-0.97

1.22

Scott Radinsky

RP

0

2.35

Tanyon Sturtze

SP

0.48

0.91

Jason Bere

SP

-0.6

1.6

Pat Daneker

SP

0.23

0.82

Carlos Castillo

SW

0.05

1.45

Jesus Pena

RP

-0.27

0.42

Pat Daneker

SP

0.23

0.82

Joe Davenport

RP

0.13

0.25

Aaron Myette

SP

0

0.11

Aaron Myette

SP

0

0.11

Chad Bradford

RP

-0.5

0

Bryan Ward

RP

-1.15

0.09

John Hudek

RP

-1.04

0

Chad Bradford

RP

-0.5

0

David Lundquist

RP

-0.74

0

Scott Eyre

RP

-0.66

0

Jack McDowell

SP

-0.36

0

David Lundquist

RP

-0.74

0

Nerio Rodriguez

RP

-0.16

0

Todd Rizzo

RP

-0.11

0

Notable Transactions

Robin Ventura

October 23, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 1, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets.

Randy Velarde

January 5, 1987: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Pete Filson to the New York Yankees for Mike Soper (minors) and Scott Nielsen.

December 23, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

April 12, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

November 2, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

November 21, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the California Angels.

October 23, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 7, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Anaheim Angels.

Mike Cameron

November 11, 1998: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Cincinnati Reds for Paul Konerko.

Harold Baines

July 29, 1989: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Fred Manrique to the Texas Rangers for Wilson Alvarez, Scott Fletcher and Sammy Sosa.

August 29, 1990: Traded by the Texas Rangers to the Oakland Athletics for players to be named later. The Oakland Athletics sent Joe Bitker (September 4, 1990) and Scott Chiamparino (September 4, 1990) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

January 14, 1993: Traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Baltimore Orioles for Allen Plaster (minors) and Bobby Chouinard.

November 1, 1993: Granted Free Agency.

December 2, 1993: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

October 20, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

December 23, 1994: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

November 6, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 11, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

November 18, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

January 10, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

July 29, 1997: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Baltimore Orioles for a player to be named later. The Baltimore Orioles sent Juan Bautista (minors) (August 18, 1997) to the Chicago White Sox to complete the trade.

October 29, 1997: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

Alex Fernandez

December 7, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

December 9, 1996: Signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.

Bob Wickman

January 10, 1992: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Domingo Jean and Melido Perez to the New York Yankees for Steve Sax.

August 23, 1996: Traded by the New York Yankees with Gerald Williams to the Milwaukee Brewers for a player to be named later, Pat Listach and Graeme Lloyd. The Milwaukee Brewers sent Ricky Bones (August 29, 1996) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade. Pat Listach returned to original team on October 2, 1996.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

December 2, 1990: Traded by the California Angels with Willie Fraser and Marcus Moore to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Junior Felix and Luis Sojo. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Ken Rivers (minors) (December 4, 1990) to the California Angels to complete the trade.

Dante Bichette

March 14, 1991: Traded by the California Angels to the Milwaukee Brewers for Dave Parker.

November 17, 1992: Traded by the Milwaukee Brewers to the Colorado Rockies for Kevin Reimer.

Wally Joyner

October 28, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 9, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

Bryan Harvey

November 17, 1992: Drafted by the Florida Marlins from the California Angels as the 20th pick in the 1992 expansion draft.

Brian Harper

December 11, 1981: Traded by the California Angels to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Tim Foli.

December 12, 1984: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with John Tudor to the St. Louis Cardinals for Steve Barnard (minors) and George Hendrick.

April 1, 1986: Released by the St. Louis Cardinals.

April 25, 1986: Signed as a Free Agent with the Detroit Tigers.

March 23, 1987: Released by the Detroit Tigers.

May 12, 1987: Purchased by the Oakland Athletics from San Jose (California).

October 12, 1987: Released by the Oakland Athletics.

January 4, 1988: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins.

November 4, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins.

Mark T. McLemore

August 17, 1990: the California Angels sent Mark McLemore to the Cleveland Indians to complete an earlier deal made on September 6, 1989. September 6, 1989: The California Angels sent a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ron Tingley.

December 13, 1990: Released by the Cleveland Indians.

March 6, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros.

June 25, 1991: Released by the Houston Astros.

July 5, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

October 15, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

February 5, 1992: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

December 19, 1992: Released by the Baltimore Orioles.

January 6, 1993: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

Honorable Mention

The 2001 Anaheim Angels

OWAR: 37.4 OWS: 267 OPW%: .467 (76-86)

AWAR: 31.1 AWS: 225 APW%: .463 (75-87)

WARdiff: 6.3 WSdiff: 42

The “Original” and “Actual” 2001 Angels finished in the American League West basement. Perennial Gold Glove center fielder Jim Edmonds socked 38 doubles and 30 long balls. “Jimmy Baseball” supplied a .304 BA with 95 runs scored and 110 ribbies. Mark T. McLemore batted .286 and nabbed 39 bags in 46 attempts. Troy Glaus crushed 41 circuit clouts and 38 two-baggers as he topped the century mark in runs and RBI. Garret Anderson rapped 194 base knocks including 39 doubles and 28 round-trippers while establishing a personal-best with 123 RBI. Jarrod Washburn delivered 11 victories with an ERA of 3.77. Troy Percival (1.65, 39 SV) made his fourth appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic and furnished a 0.988 WHIP with more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. Glaus, Anderson, Washburn and Percival appear on the “Original” and “Actual” Angels rosters in 2001.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2008 Seattle Mariners

OWAR: 41.0 OWS: 251 OPW%: .519 (84-78)

AWAR: 21.3 AWS: 183 APW%: .377 (61-101)

WARdiff: 19.7 WSdiff: 68

The “Original” 2008 Mariners finished a few percentage points behind the Athletics for the AL West crown but out-gunned the “Actual” M’s by a 23-game margin. Alex Rodriguez (.302/35/103) paced the Junior Circuit with a .573 SLG. Raul Ibanez (.293/23/110) established career-highs with 186 base hits and 43 two-base knocks. Ichiro Suzuki nabbed 43 bags in 47 attempts and batted .310, topping the League with 213 safeties. Jose Lopez socked 41 doubles and 17 long balls while posting personal-bests with 191 hits and a .297 BA. Adrian Beltre clubbed 25 four-baggers and earned his second Gold Glove Award for the “Actuals”.

Ken Griffey Jr. ranked seventh in the center field charts according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Mariners chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Alex Rodriguez (17th-SS) and Omar Vizquel (61st-SS).

Original 2008 Mariners Actual 2008 Mariners

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

STARTING LINEUP

POS

AWAR

AWS

Raul Ibanez

LF

1.77

19.64

Raul Ibanez

LF

1.77

19.64

Ichiro Suzuki

CF/RF

3.36

19.48

Jeremy Reed

CF

-0.18

4.19

Shin-Soo Choo

RF

2.86

14.97

Ichiro Suzuki

RF

3.36

19.48

Ken Griffey, Jr.

DH/RF

0

13.1

Jose Vidro

DH

-1.34

1.53

Bryan LaHair

1B

-0.42

1.66

Richie Sexson

1B

0.06

4.43

Jose Lopez

2B

2.73

18.55

Jose Lopez

2B

2.73

18.55

Asdrubal Cabrera

SS/2B

1.85

11.92

Yuniesky Betancourt

SS

0.2

8.69

Alex Rodriguez

3B

4.99

27.21

Adrian Beltre

3B

2.45

16.09

Jason Varitek

C

0.7

8.74

Kenji Johjima

C

-0.01

6.1

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

David Ortiz

DH

1.37

12.01

Willie Bloomquist

CF

0.15

3.92

Ramon Vazquez

3B

1.05

9.63

Miguel Cairo

1B

-0.64

3.17

Adam Jones

CF

1

9.12

Jeff Clement

C

-0.36

2.88

Yuniesky Betancourt

SS

0.2

8.69

Jamie Burke

C

-0.16

1.89

Greg Dobbs

3B

0.7

7.22

Bryan LaHair

1B

-0.42

1.66

Kenji Johjima

C

-0.01

6.1

Luis Valbuena

2B

0.15

1.19

Omar Vizquel

SS

-0.22

3.94

Wladimir Balentien

RF

-1.18

1.09

Willie Bloomquist

CF

0.15

3.92

Greg Norton

DH

0.21

0.99

Jeff Clement

C

-0.36

2.88

Brad Wilkerson

RF

-0.13

0.6

Luis Valbuena

2B

0.15

1.19

Rob Johnson

C

-0.3

0.35

Wladimir Balentien

RF

-1.18

1.09

Matt Tuiasosopo

3B

-0.28

0.32

Chris Snelling

–

0.16

0.58

Mike Morse

RF

0.03

0.28

Rob Johnson

C

-0.3

0.35

Tug Hulett

DH

-0.2

0.16

T. J. Bohn

LF

0.05

0.34

Charlton Jimerson

LF

-0.03

0

Matt Tuiasosopo

3B

-0.28

0.32

Jose L. Cruz

LF

-0.34

0.17

Derek Lowe and Gil Meche compiled identical records (14-11) while starting 34 games apiece. “King” Felix Hernandez contributed nine victories with an ERA of 3.45 in his third full season in the Major Leagues. Brian Fuentes accrued 30 saves while fashioning an ERA of 2.73 along with a 1.101 WHIP. “T-Rex” whiffed 82 batsmen in 62.2 innings pitched.

Original 2008 Mariners Actual 2008 Mariners

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Derek Lowe

SP

4.16

15.69

Felix Hernandez

SP

3.99

13.45

Gil Meche

SP

3.7

13.81

Ryan Rowland-Smith

SP

2.1

8.39

Felix Hernandez

SP

3.99

13.45

Erik Bedard

SP

1.24

5.4

Ryan Rowland-Smith

SP

2.1

8.39

Jarrod Washburn

SP

0.7

5.11

Joel Pineiro

SP

-0.39

3.75

R. A. Dickey

SP

0.2

3.28

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

Brian Fuentes

RP

1.88

11.8

Brandon Morrow

SW

1.09

7.19

Matt Thornton

RP

1.95

9.41

Roy Corcoran

RP

0.71

6.7

Ryan Franklin

RP

0.52

7.47

J. J. Putz

RP

0.4

5.24

Brandon Morrow

SW

1.09

7.19

Sean Green

RP

-0.56

3.59

George Sherrill

RP

0.03

6.43

Arthur Rhodes

RP

0.48

3.03

Aquilino Lopez

RP

0.93

6.13

Cesar Jimenez

RP

0.66

2.28

Damaso Marte

RP

0.52

6.02

Randy Messenger

RP

0.19

0.84

J. J. Putz

RP

0.4

5.24

Mark Lowe

RP

-1.11

0.68

Cha-Seung Baek

SP

0.56

3.67

Cha-Seung Baek

SW

-0.11

0.56

Mike Hampton

SP

0.34

2.32

Jake Woods

RP

-0.3

0.05

Cesar Jimenez

RP

0.66

2.28

Miguel Batista

SP

-1.89

0

Ron Villone

RP

-0.13

1.94

Ryan Feierabend

SP

-0.88

0

Rafael Soriano

RP

0.28

1.78

Eric O’Flaherty

RP

-1.07

0

Shawn Estes

SP

0.03

0.88

Carlos Silva

SP

-1.91

0

Mark Lowe

RP

-1.11

0.68

Justin Thomas

RP

-0.07

0

Scott Patterson

RP

0.22

0.43

Jared Wells

RP

-0.31

0

Kameron Mickolio

RP

-0.09

0.08

Ryan Feierabend

SP

-0.88

0

Eric O’Flaherty

RP

-1.07

0

Justin Thomas

RP

-0.07

0

Notable Transactions

Alex Rodriguez

October 30, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

January 26, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Texas Rangers.

February 16, 2004: Traded by the Texas Rangers with cash to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

October 29, 2007: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Derek Lowe

July 31, 1997: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb.

November 1, 2004: Granted Free Agency.

January 11, 2005: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Shin-Soo Choo

July 26, 2006: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ben Broussard and cash. The Seattle Mariners sent Shawn Nottingham (minors) (August 24, 2006) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

Gil Meche

October 31, 2006: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2006: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

Ken Griffey Jr.

February 10, 2000: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cincinnati Reds for Jake Meyer (minors), Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Brett Tomko.

David Ortiz

September 13, 1996: the Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz to the Minnesota Twins to complete an earlier deal made on August 29, 1996. August 29, 1996: The Seattle Mariners sent a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins.

December 16, 2002: Released by the Minnesota Twins.

January 22, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Honorable Mention

The 1999 Seattle Mariners

OWAR: 46.4 OWS: 296 OPW%: .549 (89-73)

AWAR: 33.8 AWS: 237 APW%: .488 (79-83)

WARdiff: 12.6 WSdiff: 59

The “Original” 1999 Mariners secured the American League Western Division title by six games over the Rangers. The “Actuals” placed third, sixteen games behind Texas. Ken Griffey Jr. (.285/48/134) paced the circuit in home runs, tallied 123 runs and collected his tenth Gold Glove Award. Edgar Martinez (.337/24/86) topped the League with a .447 OBP. Alex Rodriguez (.285/42/111) swiped 21 bags and scored 110 runs. Slick-fielding shortstop Omar Vizquel posted career-highs in batting average (.333), runs scored (112) and base hits (191) while stealing successfully on 42 of 51 attempts. Tino Martinez clubbed 28 four-baggers and plated 105 baserunners. Bret Boone tagged 38 doubles and surpassed the century mark in runs. Jason Varitek drilled 39 two-base knocks and swatted 20 big-flies during his first full campaign.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony La Russa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1985 Montreal Expos

OWAR: 55.8 OWS: 320 OPW%: .556 (90-72)

AWAR: 37.5 AWS: 252 APW%: .522 (84-77)

WARdiff: 18.3 WSdiff: 68

The “Original” 1985 Expos claimed the National League Eastern division title with a 90-victory campaign, outpacing the Mets by five games. Tim “Rock” Raines swiped 70 bases in 79 attempts, registered 115 runs, batted .320 and set a career-high with 13 triples. Gary “Kid” Carter (.281/32/100) established personal-bests in home runs and placed sixth in the NL MVP balloting. Tim Wallach clubbed 36 doubles and merited the first of three Gold Glove Awards at the hot corner. Andre “The Hawk” Dawson swatted 23 big-flies and knocked in 91 baserunners. Vance Law ripped 30 two-base hits for the “Actuals”.

Bob James locked down the late innings for Montreal, saving 32 contests with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP in 69 appearances. Shane Rawley fashioned a 13-8 record with a 3.31 ERA at the top of the rotation. Fellow portsider Joe Hesketh posted a 2.49 ERA to complement a 10-5 mark during his rookie campaign. Bryn Smith (18-5, 2.91) paced the “Actuals” in wins and WHIP (1.052). Tim Burke (9-4, 2.39) and Jeff Reardon (3.18, 41 SV) anchored the “Actuals” bullpen.

Original 1985 Expos Actual 1985 Expos

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Shane Rawley

SP

3.23

12.82

Bryn Smith

SP

2.93

15.35

Joe Hesketh

SP

2.61

11.66

Joe Hesketh

SP

2.61

11.66

Bill Gullickson

SP

1.27

9.48

Bill Gullickson

SP

1.27

9.48

Scott Sanderson

SP

2.16

8.88

David Palmer

SP

0.64

5.75

David Palmer

SP

0.64

5.75

Floyd Youmans

SP

1.18

5.43

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

AWAR

AWS

Bob James

RP

3.39

21.93

Tim Burke

RP

2.64

13.11

Randy St. Claire

RP

-0.07

3.2

Jeff Reardon

RP

1.14

12.22

Tom Gorman

RP

-0.72

0.51

Gary Lucas

RP

0.1

4.47

Rick Grapenthin

RP

-0.73

0.22

Bert Roberge

RP

0.27

3.9

Jack O’Connor

RP

-0.36

0.01

Randy St. Claire

RP

-0.07

3.2

Dan Schatzeder

SP

0.07

3.6

Dan Schatzeder

SP

0.07

3.6

John Dopson

SP

-0.95

0

Mickey Mahler

SP

0.23

1.9

Dale Murray

RP

-0.34

0

Rick Grapenthin

RP

-0.73

0.22

Steve Rogers

SP

-0.65

0

Jack O’Connor

RP

-0.36

0.01

John Dopson

SP

-0.95

0

Ed Glynn

RP

-0.41

0

Bill Laskey

SP

-1.81

0

Steve Rogers

SP

-0.65

0

Notable Transactions

Gary Carter

December 10, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the New York Mets for Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans.

Bob James

June 10, 1982: Sent to the Detroit Tigers by the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

May 4, 1983: Returned by the Detroit Tigers to the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

December 7, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Vance Law.

Tony Bernazard

December 12, 1980: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Rich Wortham.

June 15, 1983: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Seattle Mariners for Julio Cruz.

December 7, 1983: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cleveland Indians for Jack Perconte and Gorman Thomas.

Shane Rawley

May 27, 1977: the Montreal Expos sent Shane Rawley and Angel Torres to the Cincinnati Reds to complete an earlier deal made on May 21, 1977. May 21, 1977: The Montreal Expos sent players to be named later to the Cincinnati Reds for Santo Alcala.

December 9, 1977: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Seattle Mariners for Dave Collins.

April 1, 1982: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later, Bill Caudill and Gene Nelson. The New York Yankees sent Bobby Brown (April 6, 1982) to the Seattle Mariners to complete the trade.

June 30, 1984: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Philadelphia Phillies for Marty Bystrom and Keith Hughes.

Honorable Mention

The 2008 Washington Nationals

OWAR: 37.2 OWS: 243 OPW%: .500 (81-81)

AWAR: 18.3 AWS: 177 APW%: .366 (59-102)

WARdiff: 18.9 WSdiff: 64

The “Original” 2008 Nationals played .500 ball and finished fourth in the division. The “Actuals” dreadful results placed them 22 games off the “Originals” pace. Grady Sizemore (.268/33/90) produced a 30-30 season, successfully stealing 38 bags in 43 attempts while eclipsing the century mark in runs scored for the fourth straight season. Left fielder Jason Bay (.286/31/101) tallied 111 runs and drilled 35 doubles. Vladimir Guerrero (.303/27/91) topped the .300 mark for the 12th consecutive year and supplied 31 two-base knocks. Milton Bradley (.321/22/77) clubbed 32 doubles, paced the circuit with a .436 OBP and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Orlando Cabrera contributed 33 two-baggers while double-play partner Brandon Phillips blasted 21 dingers and pilfered 23 bases. Cliff P. Lee (22-3, 2.54) achieved Cy Young honors and led the League in ERA. Armando Galarraga (13-7, 3.73) finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2013 Miami Marlins

OWAR: 33.0 OWS: 255 OPW%: .468 (76-86)

AWAR: 18.5 AWS: 185 APW%: .383 (62-100)

WARdiff: 14.5 WSdiff: 70

The “Original” 2013 Marlins tied with the Phillies for last place, yet the ball club managed to school the “Actuals” by a 14-game margin. Miguel Cabrera seized MVP honors for the second consecutive season and notched his third straight batting title. “Miggy” produced a .348 BA, dialed long-distance 44 times and knocked in 137 baserunners. Adrian Gonzalez swatted 22 big-flies and reached the century mark in RBI for the sixth time in his career. Matt Dominguez drilled 25 two-base hits and blasted 21 round-trippers. Giancarlo Stanton supplied 26 doubles and 24 four-baggers as a member of the “Originals” and “Actuals”.

Original 2013 Marlins Actual 2013 Marlins

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

Josh Willingham

LF

0.23

9

Christian Yelich

LF

1.34

8.34

Marcell Ozuna

CF/RF

0.16

6.68

Justin Ruggiano

CF

1.11

9.23

Giancarlo Stanton

RF

3.14

16.66

Giancarlo Stanton

RF

3.14

16.66

Adrian Gonzalez

1B

4.12

21.17

Logan Morrison

1B

0.32

6.16

Josh Wilson

2B

-0.11

0.54

Donovan Solano

2B

0.44

6.95

Robert Andino

SS

-0.26

0.82

Adeiny Hechavarria

SS

-2.33

4.28

Miguel Cabrera

3B

6.8

33.13

Ed Lucas

3B

0.42

7.2

Brett Hayes

C

0.17

1.01

Jeff Mathis

C

-0.17

3.22

BENCH

POS

OWAR

OWS

BENCH

POS

OWAR

OWS

Matt Dominguez

3B

0.84

11.34

Marcell Ozuna

RF

0.16

6.68

Gaby Sanchez

1B

1.91

10.36

Placido Polanco

3B

-0.35

5.41

Christian Yelich

LF

1.34

8.34

Chris Coghlan

LF

0.32

5.35

Logan Morrison

1B

0.32

6.16

Derek Dietrich

2B

0.63

5.29

Chris Coghlan

LF

0.32

5.35

Juan Pierre

LF

-0.27

4.38

Jim Adduci

LF

0.03

0.59

Rob Brantly

C

-0.98

2.61

Alex Gonzalez

1B

-0.94

0.32

Greg Dobbs

1B

-0.6

2.5

Mark Kotsay

LF

-1

0.17

Jake Marisnick

CF

0.13

1.54

Kyle Skipworth

C

-0.05

0.01

Miguel Olivo

C

0.17

1.17

Scott Cousins

LF

-0.06

0

Nick Green

SS

-0.01

1.05

Chris Valaika

2B

-0.13

0.58

Joe Mahoney

1B

-0.04

0.54

Koyie Hill

C

-0.55

0.54

Austin Kearns

RF

-0.13

0.25

Matt Diaz

LF

-0.14

0.15

Casey Kotchman

1B

-0.25

0.06

Kyle Skipworth

C

-0.05

0.01

Jordan Brown

DH

-0.06

0

Gil Velazquez

3B

-0.01

0

Jose D. Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) merited 2013 NL Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star invitation while placing third in the NL Cy Young balloting. Portsider Jason Vargas contributed 9 victories with a 4.02 ERA to the “Originals” rotation and Henderson “The Entertainer” Alvarez fashioned a 3.59 ERA and 1.140 WHIP for the “Actuals” in 17 starts. The Marlins’ bullpen featured Steve Cishek (2.33, 34 SV). A.J. Ramos whiffed 86 batsmen in 68 relief appearances.

July 11, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Will Smith (minors) and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina.

January 6, 2006: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Terrmel Sledge and Chris Young to the San Diego Padres for Billy Killian (minors), Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.

December 6, 2010: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo. The Boston Red Sox sent Eric Patterson (December 16, 2010) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

August 25, 2012: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for players to be named later, Ivan De Jesus, James Loney and Allen Webster. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Rubby De La Rosa (October 4, 2012) and Jerry Sands (October 4, 2012) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade.

Matt Dominguez

July 4, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Rob Rasmussen to the Houston Astros for Carlos Lee.

Gaby Sanchez

July 31, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Kyle Kaminska (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1979 New York Mets

OWAR: 50.7 OWS: 262 OPW%: .479 (78-84)

AWAR: 24.8 AWS: 188 APW%: .389 (63-99)

WARdiff: 25.9 WSdiff: 74

The “Original” 1979 Mets ended the season in the cellar, yet the club outpaced the “Actuals” by fifteen victories! Ken Singleton earned runner-up status in the MVP balloting on the strength of a .295 BA with 35 circuit clouts and 111 ribbies. Lee “Maz” Mazzilli (.303/15/79) nabbed 34 bags and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Tim Foli set personal-bests in batting average (.288), base hits, runs and RBI. John “The Hammer” Milner contributed a .276 BA with 16 jacks while splitting time between left field and first base. “Actuals” right fielder Joel Youngblood posted a .275 BA and raked 37 doubles. Richie “The Gravedigger” Hebner added 25 two-base knocks and drove in 79 baserunners.

Jerry Koosman reached the 20-win plateau for the second time in his career. Tom “The Franchise” Seaver (16-6, 3.14) led the National League with 5 shutouts and finished fourth in the Cy Young Award balloting. Nino Espinosa delivered 14 victories with a 3.65 ERA. Nolan Ryan aka the “Ryan Express” tallied 16 victories and struck out 223 batsmen. Craig Swan augmented the “Originals” and “Actuals” rotation with 14 wins and a 3.29 ERA after securing the National League ERA title during the previous campaign.

Original 1979 Mets Actual 1979 Mets

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Jerry Koosman

SP

6.06

22.76

Craig Swan

SP

3

15.36

Tom Seaver

SP

3.68

16.04

Kevin Kobel

SP

1.16

7.87

Craig Swan

SP

3

15.36

Pete Falcone

SP

0.49

6.15

Nino Espinosa

SP

2.15

14.6

Tom Hausman

SP

1.69

5.95

Nolan Ryan

SP

2.88

13.52

Andy Hassler

SP

0.54

4.87

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

AWAR

AWS

Neil Allen

RP

0.19

6.26

Skip Lockwood

RP

1.89

6.86

Tug McGraw

RP

-1.53

4.62

Neil Allen

RP

0.19

6.26

Jeff Reardon

RP

0.29

2.33

Ed Glynn

RP

0.67

4.5

Roy Lee Jackson

RP

0.43

1.77

Jeff Reardon

RP

0.29

2.33

Dwight Bernard

RP

-0.51

0.44

Dale Murray

RP

-1.34

1.87

Steve Renko

SP

2.68

11.18

Pat Zachry

SP

0.28

2.94

Jim Bibby

SP

2.85

11.06

Juan Berenguer

SP

0.35

1.84

Ed Figueroa

SP

0.98

5.38

Roy Lee Jackson

RP

0.43

1.77

Jon Matlack

SP

0.81

4.31

Ray Burris

SP

0.13

0.85

Juan Berenguer

SP

0.35

1.84

Wayne Twitchell

RP

-1.31

0.84

John Pacella

SP

0.05

0.33

Jesse Orosco

RP

-0.33

0.57

Kim Seaman

RP

0.05

0.29

Dwight Bernard

RP

-0.51

0.44

Jackson Todd

RP

-0.64

0.01

John Pacella

SP

0.05

0.33

Mike Scott

SP

-0.83

0

Dock Ellis

SP

-1.6

0

Mike Scott

SP

-0.83

0

Notable Transactions

Ken Singleton

April 5, 1972: Traded by the New York Mets with Tim Foli and Mike Jorgensen to the Montreal Expos for Rusty Staub.

December 4, 1974: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Mike Torrez to the Baltimore Orioles for Bill Kirkpatrick (minors), Rich Coggins and Dave McNally.

Jerry Koosman

December 8, 1978: Traded by the New York Mets to the Minnesota Twins for a player to be named later and Greg Field (minors). The Minnesota Twins sent Jesse Orosco (February 7, 1979) to the New York Mets to complete the trade.

Tom Seaver

June 15, 1977: Traded by the New York Mets to the Cincinnati Reds for Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman and Pat Zachry.

Nino Espinosa

March 27, 1979: Traded by the New York Mets to the Philadelphia Phillies for Richie Hebner and Jose Moreno.

Nolan Ryan

December 10, 1971: Traded by the New York Mets with Frank Estrada, Don Rose and Leroy Stanton to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Carl “Sub” Mays (27-9, 3.05) topped the American League in victories, games (49), saves (7) and innings pitched (336.2). Clarence Mitchell fashioned a 2.89 ERA and notched 11 wins while splitting time among the bullpen and starting rotation. Dutch H. Leonard contributed a 3.75 ERA with an 11-13 record for the “Actuals”.

Original 1921 Tigers Actual 1921 Tigers

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Carl Mays

SP

7.27

34.42

Dutch H. Leonard

SP

3.02

13.14

Clarence Mitchell

SP

2.59

16.23

Red Oldham

SP

2.13

10.76

Red Oldham

SP

2.13

10.76

Hooks Dauss

SP

1.3

9.82

Hooks Dauss

SP

1.3

9.82

Howard Ehmke

SP

0.65

8.14

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

AWAR

AWS

Lou North

RP

0.41

6.23

Jim Middleton

SW

-0.73

4.25

Slicker Parks

RP

-0.18

0.85

Slicker Parks

RP

-0.18

0.85

Jim Walsh

RP

0.04

0.25

Jim Walsh

RP

0.04

0.25

George Boehler

RP

0.06

0.15

Dan Boone

RP

0.01

0.16

Lefty Stewart

RP

-0.58

0

Bert Cole

SP

0.75

5.71

Bert Cole

SP

0.75

5.71

Carl Holling

SP

-0.65

4.81

Carl Holling

SP

-0.65

4.81

Suds Sutherland

SP

-0.17

2.87

Suds Sutherland

SP

-0.17

2.87

Bernie Boland

SP

-1.58

0

Pol Perritt

SP

-0.02

0.59

Doc Ayers

SP

-0.29

0

Lefty Stewart

RP

-0.58

0

Notable Transactions

Carl Mays

Before 1914 Season: Returned to Providence (International) by the Detroit Tigers after expiration of minor league working agreement.

Before 1914 Season: Obtained by the Boston Red Sox from Providence (International) as part of a minor league working agreement.

July 30, 1919: the Boston Red Sox sent Carl Mays to the New York Yankees to complete an earlier deal made on July 29, 1919. July 29, 1919: The Boston Red Sox sent a player to be named later to the New York Yankees for Bob McGraw, Allen Russell and $40,000.

Baby Doll Jacobson

Before 1915 Season: Purchased by the Detroit Tigers from Chattanooga (Southern Association).

August 18, 1915: Traded by the Detroit Tigers with $15,000 to the St. Louis Browns for Bill James.

Ray Powell

July 10, 1917: Purchased with Wally Rehg by the Boston Braves from Providence (International).

Clarence Mitchell

October 16, 1917: Selected off waivers by the Brooklyn Robins from the Cincinnati Reds.

Wally Pipp

August, 1912: Purchased by the Detroit Tigers from Kalamazoo (Southern Michigan). (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

February 4, 1915: Purchased with Hugh High by the New York Yankees from the Detroit Tigers.

Honorable Mention

The 2003 Detroit Tigers

OWAR: 14.8 OWS: 195 OPW%: .400 (65-97)

AWAR: 7.1 AWS: 129 APW%: .265 (43-119)

WARdiff: 7.7 WSdiff: 66

The “Original” 2003 Tigers finished last in the AL Central, 17 games behind the White Sox. However the “Actuals” finished 47 games off the pace with a ghastly 43-119 record.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Cleveland Blues.

Bill Dahlen

January 25, 1899: Traded by the Chicago Orphans to the Baltimore Orioles for Gene DeMontreville.

March 11, 1899: Assigned to the Brooklyn Superbas by the Baltimore Orioles.

Danny Green

Before 1902 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Chicago White Sox.

Jimmy Ryan

Before 1902 Season: To the Washington Senators in unknown transaction.

Charlie Irwin

July 11, 1901: Released by the Cincinnati Reds.

July 12, 1901: Signed as a Free Agent with the Brooklyn Superbas.

Honorable Mention

The 1966 Chicago Cubs

OWAR: 43.3 OWS: 235 OPW%: .510 (83-79)

AWAR: 27.1 AWS: 176 APW%: .364 (59-103)

WARdiff: 16.2 WSdiff: 59

The “Original” 1966 Cubs placed fourth with a record north of .500 yet fifteen games off the pace of the Giants. Ron Santo (.312/30/94) merited Gold Glove honors for the third straight season and paced the circuit with 95 bases on balls and a .412 OBP. Lou Brock aka “The Franchise” tallied 94 runs and topped the National League with 74 stolen bases. “Sweet Swingin’” Billy L. Williams socked 29 long balls and registered 100 runs scored. Al “Red” Worthington (2.46, 16 SV) fashioned a 1.018 WHIP and secured the late-inning leads. Ernie “Mr. Cub” Banks contributed 23 two-baggers and a .272 BA. Ken Holtzman collected 11 victories while furnishing an ERA of 3.79 in his inaugural season.