If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

The last I heard, there was a lot of debate on whether the speedy Stubbs was actually statistically an above average CFer, or if he simply looked good because he had the speed.

With that being said, if he was at best average despite his speed, I would guess that Choo could at least match that, then the D is a push and the offense is obviously going to be an improvement. I think the D will be impacted much less than we think going in.

I certainly don't think we will see post injury Junioresque performance out there, and anything above that we should be able to live with.

I'm pretty comfortable with the notion that Stubbs and Choo are not defensive equals in CF.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

Probably between 35-45 extra runs scored. That means that it's still 2 extra wins for the Reds if Stubbs to Choo is a loss in 20 runs defensively.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

I'm pretty comfortable with the notion that Stubbs and Choo are not defensive equals in CF.

Actually, memory was serving me that you were one of a few that was reminding us that Stubbs wasn't all that great a CFer according to D stats. I'm going from memory, so if I'm remembering wrong, I am getting old.

BTW, I never said they were "equals" since you like to mince words. I was making a little more of a broad analysis than that. That was pretty clear from the post, at least it should have been according to the reasonable person test.

Choo is a brilliant lineup fit in Cincinnati, as the Reds had by far the major leagues' worst on-base percentage from their leadoff hitters in 2012 (.254). Choo, by comparison, ranked among the majors' top 20 qualified hitters in on-base percentage in each of his three batting title-eligible campaigns (2009-10 and 2012), and his walk rate ranked among the top 25 in both 2010 and 2012. Therefore, there's an excellent chance that the Reds will have their leadoff man on base a good 75 times more than they did in 2012, and that presents a huge advantage for projected middle-of-the-order sluggers Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, who combined had 232 RBIs in 1,731 plate appearances (one per 7.46).

To say that the odds of the Reds boasting at least one 100-run scorer (Choo) and as many as two 100-RBI men (Votto and Bruce, the likely Nos. 3 and 5 hitters) are good is selling this lineup short. Surely Choo should be a .280-average, .375-OBP performer in 2013, and coupled with probable 100-run, 20-steal contributions, his value will improve. That he'll also experience a boost in home run potential in his new ballpark, which is good for left-handed power, means Choo deserves every bit of his boost in ranking, from my No. 86 overall player to 78th.

Defensively speaking, however, there are concerns for Reds pitchers following this deal. (And that's not because of anything Donald, a projected backup infielder for his new team, does to the team.) Choo as a center fielder is a puzzling experiment, as he has 10 career big league games at the position, only one in the past six seasons and only 161 total as a professional. The man he's replacing, Stubbs, had the third-best Ultimate Zone Rating (per FanGraphs) out of 20 qualified center fielders (6.8), while Choo had the worst UZR of 17 qualified right fielders (-17.0). With Ryan Ludwick in left field, Choo in center and Bruce in right, the Reds have an outstanding chance of placing all three outfield positions in the bottom five in the majors defensively in 2013 … so good luck, Reds fly-ball pitchers.

Two Reds hurlers had higher than the major league average fly-ball rate in 2012, Bronson Arroyo with 38.3 percent (27th out of 88 qualifiers) and Homer Bailey with 37.6 percent (32nd), so don't count on either having as easy a time repeating what were solid ratios in 2012. Both lose a solid $1-2 in NL-only auction drafts as a result of Stubbs' departure and Choo's arrival.

Boy, they are really selling Jay Bruce short in right. I also thought Ludwick, while not gold glove caliber, was better than average in left.

I thought Jay took a serious step back last year. He's still a good, solid right fielder, but not the top-notch defender he appeared to be previously. Maybe it was just a bad year. We'll see.

As for Ludwick, I think he's average to slightly below. The larger point about the Reds' outfield not being especially good is a solid one. I don't think it will be a disaster, but it's not going to be a strength.

I thought Jay took a serious step back last year. He's still a good, solid right fielder, but not the top-notch defender he appeared to be previously. Maybe it was just a bad year. We'll see.

As for Ludwick, I think he's average to slightly below. The larger point about the Reds' outfield not being especially good is a solid one. I don't think it will be a disaster, but it's not going to be a strength.

Jay had a couple glaring bad errors at a few times, especially the SF game. Aside from that, he still looked Bruce as usual to me.

Not seeing that with Ludwick. He looks average at the bare minimum out there to me.

They don't think it be like it is, but it do.

Originally Posted by Larry Schuler

He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

Actually, memory was serving me that you were one of a few that was reminding us that Stubbs wasn't all that great a CFer according to D stats. I'm going from memory, so if I'm remembering wrong, I am getting old.

BTW, I never said they were "equals" since you like to mince words. I was making a little more of a broad analysis than that. That was pretty clear from the post, at least it should have been according to the reasonable person test.

I've argued that Stubbs is something closer to a neutral defender when he was projected to develop into a plus to elite defender in center. Choo has graded out as a slighly minus defensive corner outfielder which suggests he's be fairly bad defensive centerfielder.

You described their defensive values to be a push based upon your guess. I'm not sure how that would be interpretted to mean they'd be anything other than roughly equal by any reasonable person test.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most
importantly, enjoy yourselves!

RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball