Monthly Archives for August 2017

The largest wildfire ever recorded in Greenland was recently spotted close to the west coast town of Sisimiut, not far from Disko Island where I research retreating glaciers. The fire has captured public and scientific interest not just because its size and location came as a surprise, but also because it is yet another signpost of deep environmental change in the Arctic.

Greenland is an important cog in the global climate system. The ice sheet which covers 80% of the island reflects so much of the sun’s energy back into space that it moderates temperatures through what is known as the “albedo effect”. And since it occupies a strategic position in the North Atlantic, its meltwater tempers ocean circulation patterns.

But Greenland is especially vulnerable to climate change, as Arctic air temperatures are currently rising at twice the global average rate. Environmental conditions are frequently setting new records: “the warmest”, “the wettest”, “the driest”.

Despite its size, the fire itself represents only a snapshot of Greenland’s fire history. It alone cannot tell us about wider Arctic climate change.

But when we superimpose these extraordinary events onto longer-term environmental records, we can see important trends emerging.

The ice sheet is melting

Between 2002 and 2016 the ice sheet lost mass at a rate of around 269 gigatonnes per year. One gigatonne is one billion tonnes. One tonne is about the weight of a walrus.

Leave my weight out of this.BMJ / shutterstock

During the same period, the ice sheet also showed some unusual short-term behaviour. The 2012 melt season was especially intense – 97% of the ice sheet experienced surface melt at some point during the year. Snow even melted at its summit, the highest point in the centre of the island where the ice is piled up more than 3km above sea level.

Change in total mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gt) from 2002 to 2016. Red crosses indicate the values every April.NOAA

In April 2016 Greenland saw abnormally high temperatures and its earliest ever “melt event” (a day in which more than 10% of the ice sheet has at least 1mm of surface melt). Early melting doesn’t usher in a period of complete and catastrophic change – the ice won’t vanish overnight. But it does illustrate how profoundly and rapidly the ice sheet can respond to rising temperatures.

Permafrost is thawing

Despite its icy image, the margins of Greenland are actually quite boggy, complete with swarms of mosquitoes. This is the “active layer”, made up of peaty soil and sediment up to two metres thick, which temporarily thaws during the summer. The underlying permafrost, which can reach depths of 100m, remains permanently frozen.

Fighting off the mosquitos in boggy Greenland.Kathryn Adamson, Author provided

In Greenland, like much of the Arctic, rising temperatures are thawing the permafrost. This means the active layer is growing by up to 1.5cm per year. This trend is expected to continue, seeing as under current IPCC predictions, Arctic air temperatures will rise by between 2.0°C and 7.5°C this century.

Arctic permafrost contains more than 1,500 billion tonnes of dead plants and animals (around 1,500 billion walrus equivalent) which we call “organic matter”. Right now, this stuff has been frozen for thousands of years. But when the permafrost thaws this organic matter will decay, releasing carbon and methane (another greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere.

With this in mind, it is clear to see why the recent wildfire, which was burning in dried-out peat in the active layer, was especially interesting to researchers. If Greenland’s permafrost becomes increasingly degraded and dry, there is the potential for even bigger wildfires which would release vast stores of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Species are adapting to a changing ecosystem

Major changes in the physical environment are already affecting the species that call Greenland home. Just look at polar bears, the face of Arctic climate change. Unlike other bears, polar bears spend most of their time at sea, which explains their Latin name Ursus maritimus. In particular they rely on sea ice as it gives them a deep-water platform from which to hunt seals.

However, since 1979 the extent of sea ice has decreased by around 7.4% per decade due to climate warming, and bears have had to adjust their habitat use. With continued temperature rise and sea ice disappearance, it’s predicted that populations will decline by up to 30% in the next few decades, taking the total number of polar bears to under 9,000.

Where are you, seals?Mario_Hoppmann / shutterstock

I have considered only a handful of the major environmental shifts in Greenland over the past few decades, but the effects of increasing temperatures are being felt in all parts of the earth system. Sometimes these are manifest as extreme events, at others as slow and insidious changes.

The different parts of the environmental jigsaw interact, so that changes in one part (sea ice decline, say) influence another (polar bear populations). We need to keep a close eye on the system as a whole if we are to make reliable interpretations – and meaningful plans for the future.

The next stage of humanity’s fight to reduce greenhouse emissions may revolve around seaweed, according to tonight’s episode of ABC’s Catalyst, presented by Professor Tim Flannery, which asks the question “can seaweed save the world?”

But while these possibilities are exciting, early adopters are dealing with unproven technology and complex international treaties. Globally, emissions are likely to keep rising, which means seaweed-related carbon capture should only be one part of a bigger emissions reduction picture.

Net negative emissions

To stay within the Paris climate agreement’s 2℃ warming threshold, most experts agree that we must remove carbon from the atmosphere as well as reduce emissions. Many scientists now argue that 2℃ will still cause dangerous climate change, and an upper limit of 1.5℃ warming by 2100 is much safer.

To achieve that goal, humanity must begin reducing global emissions from 2020 (in less time than it takes an undergrad enrolling now to finish their degree) and rapidly decarbonise to zero net emissions by 2050.

Zero net carbon emissions can come from radical emissions reductions, and massive geoengineering projects. But it could be vastly helped by what Flannery calls “the third way”: mimicking or strengthening Earth’s own methods of carbon capture.

On the other hand, seaweed solutions could be put to work in the biologically desert-like “doldrums” of the ocean, and have positive side effects such as helping to clear up the giant ocean rubbish patches. However, there are many technical problems still to be solved to make this a reality.

We probably haven’t reached peak emissions

Removing carbon from the atmosphere is an attractive proposition, but we can’t ignore the emissions we’re currently pumping out. For any negative emissions technology to work, our global emissions from fossil fuels must start to drop significantly, and very soon.

But wait a second, haven’t we already hit peak emissions? It’s true that for the third year in a row, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry have barely grown, while the global economy has continued to grow strongly.

This is great news, but the slowdown in emissions growth has been driven primarily by China, alongside the United States, and a general decline of emissions in developed countries.

India’s emissions today match those of China in 1990. A study that combined India’s Paris agreement targets with OECD estimates about its long-term economic growth, suggested India’s CO₂ emissions could still grow significantly by 2030 (although per capita emissions would still be well below China and the US).

The emissions reduction relay race

So how do we deal with many competing and interconnected issues? Ideally, we need an array of solutions, with complementary waves of technology handling different problems.

Clearly the first wave, the clean energy transition, is well under way. Solar installations are breaking records, with an extra 75 gigawatts added to our global capacity in 2016, up from 51 gigawatts installed in 2015. But this still represents just 1.8% of total global electricity demand.

Critically, these efficiency technologies will be needed to complement structural change in the fossil fuel energy mix. This is especially in places where emissions are set to grow significantly, like India. Building renewable energy capacity, optimising with new software and technologies, and better understanding the opportunity for net negative emissions all play an important part in the emissions reductions relay race over the next 50 years to get us to 1.5°C.

With further research, development, and commercialisation, the possibilities offered by seaweed – outlined in more detail in the Catalyst documentary – are potentially game-changing.

But, as we saw with the development of renewable energy generation technology, it takes a long time to move from a good idea to wide implementation. We must support the scientists and entrepreneurs exploring zero-carbon innovations – and see if seaweed really can save the world.

The electricity and heat demands of cement production are responsible for around 50% the CO₂ emissions. But the other 50% comes from the process of “calcination” – a crucial step in cement manufacture in which limestone (calcium carbonate) is heated to transform it into quicklime (calcium oxide), giving off CO₂ in the process.

Better recipes

The cement industry has already begun to reduce its footprint by improving equipment and reducing energy use. But energy efficiency can only get us so far because the chemical process itself emits so much CO₂. Not many cement firms are prepared to cut their production to reduce emissions, so they will have to embrace less carbon-intensive recipes instead.

The BZE report calculates that 50% of the conventional concrete used in construction can be replaced with another kind, called geopolymer concrete. This contains cement made from other products rather than limestone, such as fly ash, slag or clay.

Making this transition would be relatively easy in Australia, which has more than 400 million tonnes of fly ash readily available as stockpiled waste from the coal industry, which represents already about 20 years of stocks.

These types of concrete are readily available in Australia, although they are not widely used because they have not been included in supply chains, and large construction firms have not yet put their faith in them.

Another option more widely known by construction firm is to use the so-called “high blend” cements containing a mixture of slag, fly ash and other compounds blended with cement. These blends have been used in concrete structures all over the world, such as the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir Hindu temple in Chicago, the foundation slab of which contains 65% fly ash cement. These blends are available everywhere in Australia but their usage is not as high as it should due to the lack of trust from the industry.

Built on the fly (ash): a Hindu temple in Chicago.BAPS.org/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Capturing carbon

The CO₂ released during cement fabrication could also potentially be recaptured in a process called mineral carbonation, which works on a similar principle as the carbon capture and storage often discussed in relation to coal-fired electricity generation.

This technique can theoretically prevent 90% of cement kiln emissions from escaping to the atmosphere. The necessary rocks (olivine or serpentine) are found in Australia, especially in the New England area of New South Wales, and the technique has been demonstrated in the laboratory, but has not yet been put in place at commercial scale, although several companies around the world are currently working on it.

Yet another approach would be to adapt the design of our buildings, bridges and other structures so they use less concrete. Besides using the high-performance concretes, we could also replace some of the concrete with other, less emissions-intensive materials such as timber.

Previously, high greenhouse emissions were locked into the cement industry because of the way it is made. But the industry now has a range of tools in hand to start reducing its greenhouse footprint. With the world having agreed in Paris to try and limit global warming to no more than 2℃, every sector of industry needs to do its part.

Wildebeest rarely stay still for long. With sloping hindquarters, and an easy loping gait, their bodies are designed to move. In the Serengeti ecosystem, for instance, a wildebeest will move over more than 2,000 kilometres during their annual migration.

Migratory or nomadic animals, like wildebeest, that live in drylands need to move over vast distances to find sufficient water and nutrients. They follow localised and variable rainfall and food resources.

The Serengeti wildebeest spends the wet season, November to April, on the short grass plains of the southern Serengeti National Park and adjoining Ngorongoro Conservation area in Tanzania. Here they feed on nutritious grass shoots that grow in response to the abundant rain. But even here, they do not stay still. They constantly move across the short grass plains in search of the fresh grass that grows after each new rainfall. This allows mothers to maximise milk production for their calves, born during a simultaneous calving of more than a quarter a million, peaking in February.

When the rains cease at the end of April, the wildebeest start their long journey to their dry season grazing areas. They first move west, and then head north, following the remaining water in the rivers before moving on as they dry out. Eventually they reach the only permanent water found in the Mara River on the Kenyan border. The dry season is hard, and many wildebeest die of starvation during this period.

When the rains start in November, the wildebeest lope down south once again. They make the journey to the short grasslands nearly 200km away in just a few days. Here they graze, recover their strength and the cycle begins again.

If these Serengeti wildebeest were to face a barrier at any point in their journey, they would die, either of starvation or thirst. Sadly, this has happened to migratory animals elsewhere in Africa. For example, over 30 years ago, after a fence was erected as a veterinary cordon to separate wildlife from cattle in the Kalahari, 80,000 wildebeest and 10,000 hartebeest died when they were no longer able to access permanent water during a drought. The fence was built to satisfy European Union livestock disease regulations, and allow southern African countries to export meat into the European Union.

Unfortunately, the ability of wildlife in Africa to continue to move across landscapes is still being threatened by linear barriers, and this is particularly a problem in Africa’s drylands.

African drylands

African drylands are home to most of its large mammal species. These include semi-arid and arid savannahs, found across much of eastern and southern Africa, which support spectacular wildlife migrations, such as those found in the Serengeti. But drylands also include hyperarid deserts, such as the vast Sahara, home to distinctive nomadic species such as the critically endangered Addax and dama gazelle.

Because mobility is key for large mammals in these systems, subdividing land reduces the numbers of animals areas can support. To the extent that 300km2 of land in Laikipia will support 19% fewer cattle if subdivided into 10km2 parcels.

Large carnivores, which depend on wide-ranging herbivore prey, also need to range widely, and live at even lower densities than their prey. The Saharan cheetah, for example, occurs at one of the lowest densities ever documented for a big cat, with only one individual per 4,000km2.

Sarah Durant

The recent human migration crisis and growing insecurity in many dryland areas across the Sahara-Sahel has led to calls for large-scale border fencing in Africa, some of which stretch over several hundreds of kilometres.

There are also growing calls for large scale boundary fencing of protected areas as well as infrastructure developments, such as oil pipelines and railways, that cut across wildlife movement pathways. Kenya’s new Standard Gauge Railway line is a recent example.

On top of this is the problem of boundary fences erected around smaller plots of land. In southern Kenya fences put up around private farms have meshed together to form a large-scale barrier to wildlife movement.

International action

In the face of these pressures, migratory, nomadic and wide ranging species depend on trans-boundary action for their long term survival.

Africa is not alone in facing barrier threats. In central Asia, linear barriers also threaten this region’s migratory wildlife. For example, the border fence and railroad between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan bisects the Saiga antelope migration between these countries. It has helped to put this population on the brink of extinction.

In response to barrier threats, the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species established the Central Asian Mammals Initiative This produced an important set of guidelines to inform fencing interventions and to help sustain migration corridors for migratory ungulates in Asia.

These guidelines are now being followed up with action. A project has been initiated to partially remove and modify the fences along the Trans-Mongolian Railway. This had formed a major barrier to movement for kulan (wild ass) and Mongolian gazelles. Furthermore, border fence modifications recommended by the Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species are being implemented to enable Saiga to move, once again, between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

African issues on the table

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species has just held the Second Meeting of the Sessional Committee of its Scientific Council. This is in the run up to the Conference of the Parties in October where countries will come together to agree on new actions to save migratory species. Under discussion was a new African Carnivore Initiative, which seeks to develop a framework for the trans-boundary conservation of existing Bonn Convention listed large carnivore species, cheetah and African wild dog, and to add two as yet unlisted species, lion and leopard, to the initiative.

Also on the table was an important new initiative to maintain connectivity for terrestrial species, including an additional decision requested by the Zoological Society of London to address the problem of linear barriers in Africa, building on the experiences under the Central Asian Mammals Initiative.

If Africa to avoid catastrophic impacts of large scale fencing on its wildlife in the future, we must avoid repeating past mistakes. This will require further scientific research to better understand potential negative impacts of fencing and other linear barriers, and how best to mitigate such impacts, not just for wildlife, but also for ecosystem services and local communities.

At the Bonn Convention’s next Conference of Parties, nations will need to decide whether to implement important decisions to safeguard migratory species, including maintaining terrestrial connectivity. The fate of many wide ranging species hangs in the balance, and depends on governments supporting and, importantly, implementing, these decisions.