Perot's California supporters not enthused with Bush, watch TV

STANFORD -- California support for Ross Perot in early summer was "more a
referendum on George Bush than enthusiasm for Perot," says Steven Chaffee,
Stanford University professor of communication.

Chaffee's conclusion is based on pre-primary and post- primary surveys of
1,300 registered California voters in four counties. Perot supporters came
mostly from the ranks of Republicans, Chaffee said, especially those who had
indicated last spring that they were not ready to vote for Bush in the June
Republican primary.

Perot supporters are also "more television dependent" than supporters of
Bush or Bill Clinton, Chaffee said the surveys indicate.

"Television is the medium of personality, and the Perot campaign has been
the high water mark of personality over politics," he said. "Perhaps not
since George Washington has personality overridden political party
affiliation in a presidential election."

Perot is one of very few serious presidential contenders to have run
without a third party behind him, Chaffee said. Populists, Greenbacks, Free
Soilers and even Republicans were third parties whose candidates made strong
policy appeals to disaffected groups. Perot, in contrast, he said, doesn't
have a party and "says he'll tell you what he is for after the election."

"The big questions at the moment," Chaffee said, "are which way will
Perot's early summer supporters go if they don't stay with him, and what role
will communication play?"

The study upon which Chaffee based his comments involves a series of
surveys of the same "panel" of voters, a technique not generally used by
political pollsters. The panel method tracks changes in voter preferences and
links the changes to specific modes of communication.

The panel was drawn randomly from registered voters in two Southern
California counties - San Diego and Orange - and two Northern California
counties - Santa Clara and Humboldt. Voters were first interviewed in late
February or early March, before Perot was a candidate. They were interviewed
again in late June or early July, after Perot had declared his candidacy. A
third round of interviewing begins this week.

The telephone interviews are conducted by students in communication
departments at Stanford and the California State universities at Fullerton,
San Jose, San Diego and Arcata (Humboldt State).

The counties involved have a larger proportion of Republicans than the
state average, but the surveys generally found the same candidate support
patterns as statewide opinion polls conducted at the same times, Chaffee
said. Perot led statewide after the California primary, with Clinton second
and Bush third.

"We were able to look back at who Perot's supporters had said they were
planning to vote for before he became a candidate. People who later said they
would vote for Perot came from every primary candidate's supporters, but
especially from Republicans who did not want to vote for Bush in the
primary," Chaffee said.

Sixty-three percent of Perot's early summer Republican supporters "were
not ready to vote for Bush in February or March. That's why I say it was more
of a referendum on Bush than enthusiasm for Perot."

Among Democrats, those who favored Perot after he entered the race came
from all candidates, with the largest proportion (37 percent) coming from
Paul Tsongas' camp.

When asked to rate the best and worst candidates, Perot's early summer
supporters "indicated they liked Bush a little better than Clinton," Chaffee
said. For example, Bush was twice as likely as Clinton to be rated best of
the three on foreign policy.

"If these voters return to Bush, which I think is the most likely change
for them to make, the race in California might be closer than political
analysts now say," Chaffee said, adding that undecided voters are still a
factor as well.

On the other hand, the study indicates that Clinton and Perot supporters
talk more with other people about the election than Bush supporters do.
Chaffee, who researches effects of mass communication on audience members,
said communication research, in general, indicates that interpersonal
communication is more persuasive than mass communication.

"That could be bad for Bush," he said. "If Perot voters are up for grabs,
and if Clinton people are talking, that's probably to Clinton's advantage."

The survey found that Perot supporters are more likely to monitor the
campaign through television than either Clinton or Bush supporters, Chaffee
said.

"Perot voters don't read newspapers as much," he said. "The Clinton voters
were the most newspaper-reliant group. Bush voters were the mostly likely to
say they were paying attention to political ads."

More people watched Perot for at least 10 minutes at a time on live
interview shows, such as "Today" or the "Larry King Show," than had watched
Bush or Clinton, Chaffee said. "People who watched Perot also seem to have
been affected in his favor - at least back in June and July.

"Watching the candidates is a different experience from reading about
them, and Perot supporters from the summer are probably watching television
to decide how to vote now."

-kpo-

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