Monday, July 30, 2012

Crestmont Research: How Much Longer Can the Secular Bear Last?

Our best guess is 2-3 years but some smart people are saying the next secular bull won't begin until 2020.
Until then take a page from Gerald M. Loeb and trade, don't invest. Keep a tight stop-loss discipline and don't push the river (it flows by itseld).
From ZeroHedge:

The secular bear market that the US has been caught in for a better
part of the last decade will end. Eventually. The only question is when.
Last week we reported that the bulk of market gains year to date, has been driven exclusively by PE multiple expansion,
which is to be expected:

EPS forecasts for the end of 2012 are now the
lowest they have been since the beginning of the year. Yet while such
sharp, sudden and short and bear-market rallies, exclusively on
the back of the global central banks, are to be expected, the bigger
question is how much more of a secular decline in PE multiples is to be
expected before the bear market ends and a new bull market can begin.

As
the following chart from Crestmont Research shows
there is quite a bit more to go, even with Fed assistance (or rather,
because of it, and its forced rejection of reaching a fair clearing
price sooner rather than later), before the bear market is officially
over. Just over 50% more. To the downside.

How the Bear Market declines have looked in perspective, and where we
ultimately have to go before all the artifical supports are cleared
out: