Saturday, December 12, 2015

A disgraceful definition of dereliction of duty by the DPRK

I am not sure that this title is helpful. Certainly an interesting perspective and some useful points for analysis. Sure by Miller's definition north Korea is almost a "failed state."

But it is also one that has not "failed" to the point of collapse because it has absolute and complete control of the first of the five functions of a state: "coercive force to defend itself and administer its rule." This is what has prevented north Korea from collapse even if all other functions are a "failure."

What is the precipitating event that will lead to collapse? As we have written many times over the years since we wrote the plans for north Korean instability and collapse it is when the Kim Family Regime no longer can govern the entire territory of the north from Pyongyang (loss of central governing effectiveness) and the loss of coherency and support of the military and security services. The combination of those two conditions will lead to collapse. But the Collapse-War Paradox is that those same conditions could lead to a decision by Kim Jong-un to ensure the protection of its single vital national interest: survival of the Kim Family Regime. That decision could be to execute its campaign plan to reunify the peninsula by force which in the north's calculation would ensure survival of the Kim Family Regime (though we know that would be a mis-calculation as it would not be successful).

And again, I can no prediction on if and when the Kim Family Regime will collapse. But I will predict that if it does happen it will be catastrophic for the ROK and the regional powers and will have global impact (and of course for the Korean people living in both the north and the South). But let me end with four thoughts and quotes:

"Deterrence works, until it doesn't" Sir Lawrence Freedman

"There are only two ways to approach planning for the collapse of North Korea: to be ill-prepared or to be really ill-prepared"Dr. Kurt Campbell 1 May 1998

Strategic Planning and Preparation Paralysis arises from a fear of what comes next - thus the Collapse-War Paradox

Let me conclude with this final statement:

Unification is the only way to end the north's nuclear program and to end the crimes against humanity being perpetrated against the Korean people living in the north by the Mafia-Like Crime family cult known as the Kim Family regime.

A disgraceful definition of dereliction of duty by the DPRK

Before predicting its collapse, North Korea must be seen for what it is: a failed state

North Korea is a wicked problem. A wicked problem has been variously defined by the social sciences as one that defies resolution due to adequate information never being available or dynamic characteristics that are difficult to isolate or pin down.

An example of this is the varying predictions about when a North Korean collapse will occur. Even though everyone in the region needs to be prepared for regime collapse should it ever occur, the problem facing Northeast Asia really isn't whether or not the DPRK will implode; it is that North Korea is a failed state. It is that failed state with which others in the region and the U.S. must prepare to deal.

In preparing for failed states, it is imperative to know precisely what we are dealing with. Seminal work in this regard can be found in Paul D. Miller's 2013 book Armed State Building: Confronting State Failure 1898-2012. The root cause of the disasters in dealing with failed states is a lack of understanding of why and how nation-states fail - witness first Iraq and now Syria. This requires a highly nuanced grasp of the factors behind failed or failing states. However, in order to comprehend how states fail, it is first necessary to recognize what states are supposed to do.

Miller's analysis postulates that there are five functions that states are to perform. They are: (a) a state must have a coercive force to defend itself and administer its rule; (b) it must exemplify a theory of justice that is accepted by its citizenry; (c) a state must be the supplier of a host of public goods and services such as infrastructure, education and other necessary social services, to cite only a few; (d) it must offer a sound fiscal foundation for its people, be involved in the economy only to the degree necessary to accomplish its purposes, and its burden on the citizens limited to what is acceptable; and finally (e) the state must be the creator or facilitator of actions for the human good.

If a state isn't fulfilling these functions, then it is failing or has already failed

If a state isn't fulfilling these functions, then it is failing or has already failed. However, in dealing with a failed state, one must determine what the nature of its failure is. Much of the difficulty when dealing with failed states in the past is that there has been little, if any, analysis of the causes behind any one particular failure. Yet it is foolhardy to apply any solution to an undefined problem.

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David S. Maxwell is a 30-year veteran of the US Army retiring as a Special
Forces Colonel with his final assignment serving on the military faculty
teaching national security at the National War College. He spent the majority
of his military service overseas with over twenty years in Asia, primarily in
Korea, Japan, and the Philippines leading organizations from the A-Team to the
Joint Special Operations Task Force level.

He
hails from Madison, Connecticut and is a 1980 graduate of Miami University in
Oxford, Ohio with a BA in Political Science and has Masters Degrees in Military
Arts and Science and National Security Studies from the U.S. Army Command and
General Staff College, the School of Advanced Military Studies, and the
National War College of the National Defense University. He received his
commission from the Officer Candidate School in 1981.

In addition, he is a fellow at the
Institute of Corean-American Studies (ICAS) and on the Board of Directors for the
Small Wars Journal, The International Council of Korean Studies (ICKS) and the
Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK). He is a Life Member of the
Special Forces Association and the National War College Alumni
Association.

He is currently studying in the
Doctorate of Liberal Studies program at Georgetown University and teaches SEST
604: Unconventional Warfare and Special Operations for Policy Makers and
Strategists.

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The purpose of this site is to share information on national security issues with anyone who has an interest in these topics. My focus is on National Security Issues of Policy and Strategy; Asia, with particular emphasis on Korea and China, as well as Special Warfare (Unconventional Warfare and Foreign Internal Defense) and Surgical Strike (Counterterrorism) and how they relate to US National Security.

I am using a format similar to the email messages I send to about 1000 colleagues on my private email list serve that I have been managing since 1997. Each entry will include the title of the news article, the first few paragraphs and a link to the entire article. My comments will be in blue arial font and key excerpts/quotes from the article will be in the article's original format. As a good Soldier always strives to improve his fighting position, I will endeavor to improve this site.

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Thought for the Day

"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest." - Confucius