Mega Conference Expansion – ACC – Phase Six Prediction

As the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC and Pac-10 again have expanded their conferences, the ACC has sat back and watched. The most important thing for the ACC at this point is that none of their current programs have been taken away by the other quickly growing conferences.

While the ACC was the league that caused all of the tremors of expansion earlier this decade they will be the last conference to grow this time. Initially I said that I expected that the final result of expansion would be four 16-team mega conferences. As I’ve gone through this exercise, my thinking has changed. The reason is that similar to what I said about the Pac-10 expansion, I don’t see four legitimate candidates available for the ACC at this point. If the league moves more quickly, or if the Big Ten only grabs one of the Big East schools, I could see four legitimate candidates (Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia). But I firmly believe that the Big Ten will grab two of those schools (Pittsburgh and Syracuse) and take that option away from the ACC.

So that leaves Connecticut and West Virginia. The case for both schools is complicated.

First, let’s look at Connecticut. Traditionally the Huskies have had an excellent men’s basketball program, but they are currently under a great deal of scrutiny by the NCAA. And according to SI’s Seth Davis, that is just the beginning of UConn’s issues. Their candidacy with the ACC is certainly helped by the inclusion of the premier women’s basketball program in the nation. Their addition would also solidify a rival for Boston College in the Northeast and bring some access to the New York City market. Their academics (#66 ranking by the U.S. News and World Report) don’t match up with the ACC elite, but are still solidly in the range of the other schools.

The biggest challenge for West Virginia to overcome will be their academics. They are ranked as a Tier 3 school by the U.S. News and World Report. That means they are not good enough to be ranked among the top 133 colleges and universities in the country. That fact will not sit well with the ACC whose lowest current ranking school is Florida St. at #102. Otherwise they have a strong football program with a passionate fan base and a very solid basketball program. In fact, they have a lot of depth in their athletics program as they currently stand at #15 in the Learfield Directors’ Cup standings.

Will the ACC be willing to overlook Connecticut’s NCAA violations and West Virginia’s less than ideal academic ratings? I say yes. I believe that the pressure to expand will be great because there is nothing saying that the Big Ten and SEC have to stop at 16 teams. You could just as easily see them jumping up to 20. So the ACC will react and add the Huskies and Mountaineers believing that their only way to ultimately survive is to strengthen their own ranks.

What are your thoughts? Would Connecticut’s NCAA issues keep them from being invited to join the ACC? Does West Virginia’s academic ranking make them a no-go?

The ACC or Big 10/16 would end up w/ West Virginia or WV may be left out due to their poor academic standing and the fact they are in an extremely unattractive media market. Louisville and Cincinnati would be great adds to the SEC in basketball and UL, UC, and USF have potentially excellent football programs. Would give the SEC three semi-large media markets as well. The addition of Texas A&M would bring another large football program into the conference as well and give the SEC media exposure and recruiting pull into the state of Texas.

Texas and Notre Dame are the two major players here as we saw in June. If Texas had moved to the PAC 10 there would have been absolute chaos over the summer and the other conferences would have quickly moved to get to 16 teams to follow the PAC 10’s lead. If Texas realizes that the now 10 team Big 12 is no longer a good fit for them look for them to leave for the PAC 10. I just can’t see Texas linking up with the Big 10. Makes no sense geographically and would be a terrible move for Texas’ spring sports including baseball. Imagine this division of the PAC 16 in baseball (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, Colorado (they are talking about reinstating baseball as a varsity sport sometime in the next 5 to 10 years)). 5 out of 8 teams in the DIVISION are national powers w/ 15 combined national titles in baseball.

While I don’t place a lot of credence in the US News rankings, West Virginia is still closer academically to the SEC than to the ACC. The ACC has always taken pride in having student-athletes as opposed to athletes who barely give class lip service. I could see the ACC taking UConn, especially since several schools have had home & home football series with the Huskies in recent years. The alleged violations in the men’s basketball program (and let’s be honest, there are probably skeletons in the closet of the women’s program as well) could make the ACC think long & hard about this addition, but I’d think there would be conditions placed in the deal agreement (could they request the resignation of Jim Calhoun should UConn hoops be found guilty of major infractions?).

Personally I think Syracuse & UConn would be the best fits for the ACC.

Yes, the ACC would certainly have to swallow hard before inviting the Mountaineers, no doubt about that. I’d be happy if the Orange joined the ACC, I just don’t think the ACC will move fast enough to get them. But, if the Big Ten decides to move more south and west than east, Syracuse could fall into the ACC’s lap.