Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans: prediction, preview, pick to win

Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack (52) is mobbed in the
stands after intercepting a pass by Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton and
scoring in the second quarter at the Oakland Alameda County Coliseum in
Oakland, California, on November 27, 2016. The Raiders defeated the
Panthers 35-32. Photo by Terry Schmitt/UPI

SERIES HISTORY: First playoff meeting. Texans
lead regular-season series 6-4. Raiders won 27-20 on Nov. 21 in Mexico
City, as quarterback Derek Carr completed 21 of 31 passes for 295 yards.
Trailing 20-13 early in the fourth quarter, Carr threw a 75-yard
touchdown pass to Jamize Olawale and a 35-yard strike to Amari Cooper
for the win. The Raiders have won the last two regular-season meetings
in Houston, 28-23 in 2013 behind three touchdown passes from Matt
McGloin and 25-20 in 2011 the day after Raiders owner Al Davis died. Houston beat the Raiders 30-14 in Oakland in 2014.

GAMEDATE: 1/7/17

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Biggest hype for this game will be focused on
the quarterback duel. Raiders rookie Connor Cook will be the first QB in
the Super Bowl era to debut in a playoff game. The Texans counter with
expensive, but disappointing, free-agent acquisition Brock Osweiler, who is returning to duty only because the man who took his job, Tom Savage, was concussed last week.

Cook is on the spot after Raiders MVP
candidate Derek Carr broke his leg two weeks ago and journeyman
replacement Matt McGloin injured his non-throwing shoulder last week.

The resulting game strategies should be fun
to watch. Expect the Texans to unleash their aggressive defensive front,
led by Jadeveon Clowney, to harass the rookie QB. But Oakland has an
interesting counter with the biggest offensive line in the NFL,
including three Pro Bowl blockers.

That could help Cook either hand off to one
of three dangerous running backs -- Latavius Murray and rookies Jalen
Richard and DeAndre Washington -- or throw to 1,000-yard receivers Amari
Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Adding more intrigue are echoes of scouting
reports that state that Cook has a stronger throwing arm than Carr or
McGloin. Arm strength doesn't necessarily mean he is the best passer,
but he was cool on the big stage at Michigan State (Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl
wins) and was not overwhelmed off the bench last week. All that is
something for Houston's defense to keep in mind as it tries to harass
him.

Meanwhile, there is tension in Houston as
Osweiler's key stats are $72 million, $37 million guaranteed, 16
interceptions, 72.2 rating. Coach Bill O'Brien and Osweiler did not deny
they had a heated sideline discussion last week. But teammates say
Osweiler looked better and played looser after his return from the
bench.

The Raiders hope for a heated confrontation
on the field as they send their active pass rushers, including Kahlil
Mack, to harass Osweiler.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Raiders RT Menelik Watson vs. Texans LDE
Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was virtually unblockable in the Nov. 21
meeting, dominating right tackle Austin Howard and almost personally
shutting down the Raiders' running game. In Week 16, the Raiders
replaced Howard with Watson, who has won the job each of the last two
seasons only to be injured. Watson isn't quite as massive as Howard, but
he's more explosive and a better athlete and should be able to give the
Raiders a better matchup.

--Texans TE C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. Raiders SS
Karl Joseph. Fiedorowicz did what most tight ends have done against the
Raiders this season -- get open in the middle of the field. He had 82
receiving yards as Osweiler found him six times, tying his
high-reception mark of the season. Joseph, a rookie first-round draft
pick, has been out the last four games with turf toe. He'll be forced
back into action, with Nate Allen not expected to make it through
concussion protocol.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Raiders QB Garrett Gilbert. A practice squad
quarterback for the Raiders last season, Gilbert is expected to be
placed on the 53-man roster. If Matt McGloin's left shoulder leaves him
inactive, Gilbert would be the quarterback should something happen to
rookie starter Connor Cook.

FAST FACTS:

-- The Raiders won 12 games for the first time since 2000 and had seven players selected to Pro Bowl.

-- Oakland WR Amari Cooper is one of three
players in NFL history with 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and five TD
catches in each of his first two seasons. He ranked third in the AFC
with 1,153 yards receiving, the most by a Raider since Jerry Rice (1,211) in 2002.

-- Raiders WR Michael Crabtree led the team with a career-high 89 catches and tied for fourth in the AFC with eight TD catches.

-- Raiders DE Kahlil Mack has 10 sacks, 11
TFL, five forced fumbles, three recoveries and a pick-six in his past 11
games. He leads the NFL with 26 sacks since 2015.

-- The Texans won their second consecutive AFC South title. QB Brock Osweiler is 6-1 as a starter at home.

-- Houston WR DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 78 catches and 954 yards.

-- Texans WR/PR Will Fuller was third among NFL rookies with 635 yards receiving.

-- Houston DE Jadaveon Clowney was named to
the Pro Bowl after ranking second among AFC ends with 16 tackles for
loss. He also had six sacks.

PREDICTION:

The day after iconic owner Al Davis died in
2011, it was on this field that the Raiders made a goal-line stand to
preserve a win, with only 10 defenders on the field, not counting Al's
presence, as Raiders' lore recalls. Now, in the Raiders' first return to
the playoffs since 2002, a series of injuries open the way for the
strongest passer on the team to start. Hello, Al? Just grin, baby.