Monday, April 09, 2012

N.L. FAAB Log April 9, 2012

Welcome to the 2012 version of the National League FAAB Log.

Things might look a little different to you this year, as I am trying to create a more efficient and more meaningful log for you. The first change is actually a rule change – check out those $0 bids! Interestingly, there are a number of $0 bids, but less than I expected. Next, while you will still see the free agents and their bids (from my National League-Only 5x5 home league), I will not usually be writing about every player. Instead, I will try to address the significant additions in a little more detail. When there is some specific strategy or need involved, I will try to highlight that as well. For this week only, I skipped the losing bids, since a number of teams needed to fill roster spots (for players auctioned who were subsequently sent to the minors, etc.). As always, if you have questions about specific players, prices, roles, etc., please e-mail me at Rotothinktank@gmail.com, leave a comment, or send me a tweet at either @RotoThinkTank or @TozRotoThink.

Without further ado, here is the first installment:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis $12. It did not take long for the injury bug to hit the Mets, and Nieuwenhuis is up as a result. John Sickels moved him up to a B- prospect this year, citing his nice walk rate and solid tools. Unfortunately, Nieuwenhuis also strikes out a ton and is not a great athlete. I do not think he will stay up for a prolonged period of time this early in the season, but you can expect to see him again later in the season. The team bidding heavily here released Austin Kearns from an otherwise solid outfield. The other bids were $9, $6, $6, $3 and $1. Interestingly, several other teams also needed outfielders, but chose to bid on others and not on Nieuwenhuis.

Jeff Karstens $5. One great start does not a season make. Karstens threw a gem against the "anemic" Phillies offense (yes, you heard that right), and pitched wonderfully early in 2011; he posted an FIP of 4.29 and an xFIP of 4.00. If you are in need of starting pitching, this is not a bad place to turn for a bottom of the fantasy rotation guy.

Bryan Shaw $5. My first reaction is “Do not read too much in to one save in the third game of the season. Shaw is a back of the bullpen guy who got an opportunity for a save as a fresh arm today…he will be lucky if it happens again.” On the other hand, he could someday close, if his cutter continues to develop and he gains better command of the strike zone. I doubt he has significant fantasy value this year, but he is a sleeper if something happens ahead of him.

Anthony Bass $3. Bass is the primary candidate (with Micah Owings being the other candidate) for Dustin Moeseley’s and/or Tim Stauffer’s rotation spot. Petco pitchers are always attractive, but I would suggest a look at his K/9 and FIP/xFIP before jumping in to this pool.

Rafael Dolis $3. Who is not in love with a power sinker? A poor BB/9 is going to hurt him in his quest to overtake Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol, but with those two off to gold standard starts, Dolis could see a save opportunity before next week is up. On the other hand, John Axford blew a save on Opening Day 2011, and did not blow another one for a very long time, so take a deep breath before paying closer in waiting or, worse yet, closer FAAB prices for him.

Paul Maholm $3. The 6-14 record last year masks the fact that Maholm broke out. I know the K/9 is abysmal, but he looked terrific in the spring and FIP/xFIP say he is as good as or better than Karstens.

Ross Detwiler $2. Everyone seems to like Ross Detwiler. I am sure he is a nice guy, but his K/9 and BB/9 suggest he has much room to grow before he becomes a reliable option. He is the Nationals’ 5th starter for now, but it likely will not last long with Wang and Lannan on the way back.

Lucas Harrell $2. Ground ball pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 than guys like Trevor Cahill, and with poor control. He had one great start this week, but he looks like a recipe for poor outcomes in the future, all while pitching for a bad team.