Why it seems unlikely that the Nashville Predators would trade Shea Weber

It’s (an understandable) dream of Oilers fans to see Shea Weber traded to Edmonton. Not only is he from Western Canada, big, strong and capable, but he’d fill the #1 defenceman hole that Edmonton has had since Chris Pronger left town.

Those dreams seem destined to go unfulfilled.

Get Used To Disappointment

Why would Nashville trade one of the league’s precious few franchise defenders? The answer always seems to be “they’re a small market club and they can’t afford him.” By their actions, though, it seems clear that the Predators have decided they can’t afford not to pay him.

The Economics of a Trade

Shea Weber signed his current contract – via a Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet – on July 19, 2012, forcing the Predators to either match and hang on to Weber for at least a year, or decline to match and accept four first-round picks in exchange for Weber’s services. The Flyers made it as difficult as possible for Nashville by structuring the contract to be extremely front-loaded.

Facing a $110 million decision, one has to think the Predators weighed the cost. None of these ramifications were unknown at the time; the Predators knew what they were getting into matching that offer sheet. If it made sense to sign him then, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to change their mind and move him after having already taken the worst lumps.

Certainly that’s the message general manager David Poile has always emphasized – asked about the possibility of a trade by CBC’s Elliotte Friedman in April, he made no secret as to his view:

We have a franchise goaltender and the best defenceman in the NHL … We are building our team around them.

Ultimately, it comes down to this: either the Predators made a terrible mistake, Poile’s being disingenuous, and the team plans to try and get a better return than four first round picks after spending $27 million for 48 games or they really have no plans to trade Weber. The latter seems more likely to be reality than the former. None of that means the Oilers shouldn’t ask, but it does mean not much is likely to come of it.

Look, why don’t you focus on reality. The Oilers ideally need to get a #1 Dman. If we look at Weber (a 49th pick), OEL (6th), Doughty (2nd overall), Keith (54th) it would seem the Oilers could pick up a guy who has been drafted and has not yet become the next great defenseman or focus on drafting him themselves.

They have the chance to pick the best defenseman not named Jones in a deep draft with their #7 pick. That guy might be able to help them in a year.

I suggest that rather than break the bank trying to get someone next year that they focus on development.

Take the best guy they can at #7, sign Streit to a three year deal, and trade Hemsky for another good prospect.

Next year you have Streit, Petry, Smid, Shultz x2, and Fistric as your top 6. Potter is #7 and on the farm you have Klefbom, Marincin, Musil (who has been a beast in the playoffs), and the prospect from Hemsky. Your #7 is a year away with Gernat, Davidson, Simpson still coming.

By midseason you might have Marincin and Klefbom playing in the NHL as needed.

That would constitute some tremendous depth at defense and is only a year away.

That top 6 of Streit, Smid, NSchultz, JSchultz, Petry, and Fistric is not very good — certainly not good enough for a playoff team.

And don’t listen to Oilers management. Klefbom and (especially) Marincin are not going to step in next year and make an impact. In fact, Marincin would likely get massacred in the NHL at this point. They should develop in the minors until their abilities reach the point that the Oilers are forced to bring them up.

1) 13 goals over an 82 game season is about 22 goals…the difference between good and bad. And remember the Canucks fielded an AHL team in the final game allowing the Oilers to pad their stats.

2) Dan Hamhuis…one of the best defensive defensemen in the league who also managed to score 24 points while not getting much PP time.

3) Columbus would be a good bet. Now that their goaltending seems settled, they are absolutely loaded on D and, with 3 first round picks and too many defensemen, have the assets to shore up their forward ranks.

4) Nashville is in a tough spot after the Flyers launched their all out assault but, as you say, they have a brilliant GM and I’d wager they will be back in the playoffs before the Oilers.

5) Minnesota is still a work in progress having turned over 40% of their roster in one offseason but they went from a goal differential of -49 to -5 in one offseason so they certainly appear to be on the right track. When you consider how much depth they have in their prospect pool, its’ a good thing the Oilers won’t be in their division next season.

Bear in mind that Jonas Brodin is only 19 and already is a better defenseman than any Oiler and that they have Matt Dumba about to make his pro debut.

Your correct because most/all felt he would not come over last year . He’s 6-1 and 195 by the way – I stand corrected . Currently slotted at ranking 39 . Maybe same problem with Nicushkin to be honest – risky pick no doubt .

I’ll add another pick Oilers by MacT. own admission is 38th ranked Eric Comrie for goal and could be a good second round pick .

I think we’ve been drafting pretty good in late late rounds in the last few years. Where we’re falling down is in the second and third, likely because there seems to have been an upper management mandate for a coke machine. I would imagine the scouts are doing there job but are being overruled by the Oilers mission to get a Lucic of their very own.

I would be way, way more upset at blowing a pick in the first round over our inability to find Jamie Benns in the draft.

Sam Gagner 6th in 2007 (second in points from his draft year)
Jordan Eberle 22nd in 2008
Paajarvi 10th in 2009 (we missed out on some good D, but this is still a strong pick)
Hall 1st in 2010
Nuge 1st in 2011
Klefbomb 19 in 2011 (looking at what was drafted above and below him, this might have been a great pick)
Yak 1st in 2012

So which would you rather, us blowing these first rounds picks or us not finding gems in the depth picks?

In the last 6 years, disregarding the 1st overall picks who could have been selected by Maggie the Money, the Oilers have drafted TWO NHL players and one of those players, Paajarvi, would be in the AHL on any good NHL team.

In the same time frame, Montreal has drafted 7 players who are already established NHL players with Tinordi and Beaulieu very close.

That the Habs accomplished that while drafting much lower than the Oilers gives you a pretty good idea about the skill of their amateur scouts.

Good grief…the Oilers had THREE first round picks in 2007 and all of them look like mistakes.

So the Oilers have to throw out their first rounder while Montreal gets to keep them?

If you take away their last three first round picks like you want to do for Edmonton you are left with ONLY 2007 picks and Gallagher.

What have the Oilers picked since 2007 if you subtract their last three firsts? MPS, Eberle, Gagner, with Hartikainen and Lander with a shot at becoming regulars and a hndful of Defensemen with a reasonable chance at becoming NHL players.

You want to stack the deck on MTLs favor before comparing, but when you do the comparison fairly there is not much to separate the teams.

Subban was a fantastic find, but other than that I don’t see the evidence of a vastly superior scouting group.

In the last 6 years, disregarding the 1st overall picks who could have been selected by Maggie the Money, the Oilers have drafted TWO NHL players and one of those players, Paajarvi, would be in the AHL on any good NHL team.

In the same time frame, Montreal has drafted 7 players who are already established NHL players with Tinordi and Beaulieu very close.

That the Habs accomplished that while drafting much lower than the Oilers gives you a pretty good idea about the skill of their amateur scouts.

Good grief…the Oilers had THREE first round picks in 2007 and all of them look like mistakes.

So the Oilers have to throw out their first rounder while Montreal gets to keep them?

If you take away their last three first round picks like you want to do for Edmonton you are left with ONLY 2007 picks and Gallagher.

What have the Oilers picked since 2007 if you subtract their last three firsts? MPS, Eberle, Gagner, with Hartikainen and Lander with a shot at becoming regulars and a hndful of Defensemen with a reasonable chance at becoming NHL players.

You want to stack the deck on MTLs favor before comparing, but when you do the comparison fairly there is not much to separate the teams.

Subban was a fantastic find, but other than that I don’t see the evidence of a vastly superior scouting group.

Your really bad at this game. You realize in a “redraft” that MPS and Gagner would be selected around the same draft position.
Now the Nash and Plante picks are terrible. But you wouldn’t be insulting our current team. So for alk the examples of how incompetent the oilers are. You have managed to use the one matrix that makes it seem that they mayhave known what they were doing.

Come on. Tell me about how Parise could have been ours but we took JFJ instead. Or lets discuss Horcoffs contract.

Petry, Smid, and the Schultzes are fine in the 3-6 positions. None of them are top pairing guys at this point; they are not prepared to handle the opposition toughs.

Marincin posted some good numbers in the AHL (partially aided by playing with JSchultz in the first half), but that does not tell the whole story. He has some kinks in his defensive game that have to be ironed out before making the jump to NHL.

The Oilers have been rushing prospects to the big club for so long now that many people think this is the norm. The most successful teams let their players develop in the minors for 2-3 years before they bring them up.

Deals are made for many reasons Ducey. Some players/contracts are sold under wishes of ownership/group, and some are just old fashioned hockey deals. All are still deals, no matter what prompts a deal. Getting themselves out from under this financial burden is reason enough to believe this is at all a possibility. If they act in the next 12 months they can still rid themselves of 75% of the value of that 110 million dollar contract.

Is this not the said reality you’ve mentioned here? I like you Ducey (gives Ducey a head wash) but we’ve put up with a lot of ship here these last 7 yrs. This needs to change.

You have to give me credit Ducey. The vision of desperate Oiler fan on his knees begging for his monies worth, is appropriate at this time, is it not? Lets just milk it for the summer.