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Alexander Knyazev: Kyrgyzstan is the first candidate to repeat the Kosovo scenario

Professor Alexander Knyazev, the consultant of the Institute of political solutions (Almaty) became one of the first experts, raising the expected destabilization in Kyrgyzstan and its reasons. "Explosions and other terrorist acts will become the part of regular life in Kyrgyzstan" professor Knyazev shared with Ferghana in the interview, dated December 8, 2010.

The news on deteriorating security situation in Kyrgyzstan arose soon. Throughout the last month the human rights advocates reported several kidnappings of women in Osh and growing discrimination of national minorities; few mine-studded vehicles were found in the central part of Bishkek.

At the beginning of January, 2011 three policemen were brutally shot down in Bishkek; the special services managed to kill their murderers, losing, however, the Alfa special task officer.

In concern with the above-mentioned events Ferghana asked Alexander Knyazev several questions:

Ferghana: How would you characterize the recent clashes between the special services and armed criminals in Kyrgyzstan? Was it a strange coincidence with the establishment of new antiterrorist department under SCNS, headed by former Security Council chairman Marat Imankulov?

Alexander Knyazev: There are very few strange coincidences. Carefully monitoring the public actions of Kyrgyz officials we observe the line of continuous statements and actions. Shortly after June interethnic conflict Roza Otunbaeva said about hundreds of Uzbeks that allegedly arrived in the terrorist camps in Afghanistan. During the informal CSTO summit in Yerevan, she asked CSTO and Russia for arms that are no way used against militants in the mountains (tanks, flame guns). In 1999 the Defense Minister Ismail Isakov already tried to put tanks in Zardaly where they could be easily flamed by IMU militants. Why do Kyrgyz authorities need flame guns? Hypothetically, this all can be efficiently used during mass riots in the city. Perhaps, Uzbek mahallahs of Osh and Jalal-Abad?

At the end of November [2010] all diplomatic representative offices, located in Bishkek, received a note from Kyrgyz side with the warning of growing terrorist threat and necessity to take more effective security measures. Later on we witnessed very doubtful cases of explosion near the building of Sports Palace and mine-studded vehicle near police office. The details say that it looks much like the performance, played by special services. Then there was the establishment of anti-terrorist center under State Committee for National Security (ATC SCNS) and, as a response, the execution of police officers and special operation in Arashan…I believe we need to identify two different processes here…

- Does it really look like the revitalization of religious extremism and terrorism under Jihad?

- It is true to a certain extent. I would still highlight what I called "the performance". Excessive terrorist threat for today’s government of Kyrgyzstan is just a finding. The order of American geopolitics is performed – we see additional reasons for higher military presence in the republic and at least the continuation of current presence. Politicians and parties, which wanted to close American base during pre-election campaign, are being freed from necessity to continue this topic… Considering "Islamism" agenda, painful for Russia (and also China), there are new reasons to ask for aid, including military assistance. The terrorism threat helps also influence the domestic population that lost confidence in its leaders and where the new protest potential is growing… In general, that would be brilliant finding for Kyrgyz authorities if there was no such threat at all. The bad news is that it exists although I do not view the recent events as some apotheosis. If by the spring we see various parliamentary and governmental crises and at the same time socio-economic protests in the regions it is possible that any jihadist action will be the test for existence of this state…

- We interviewed some observers and they think the recent events may also be the revenge of criminals against police, but as usual special services interpret these as "religious” crimes. What do you think of this?

- Perhaps, it takes place. What would they expect to get if in the last twenty years they have been destroying the state system? Unfortunately, considering the links between the law enforcement officers and organized criminal groups, we see suffering police officers. In such corrupted system we may not ignore the fact that these criminal acts could be the episodes of competition between law enforcement structures although some details report that terrorism has becoming the inherent part of life in Kyrgyzstan. I would not name them as "Religious activists" because in this case the religion is used by those who design these processes…

- Do these event look like the intifada that you mentioned in the previous interview?

- Quite a bit. Kyrgyz security agencies very interestingly present these cases. For some reasons, the nationality of only one suspect is mentioned as "Kyrgyz" although it is common knowledge that there are no nationalities in Islam. If Kyrgyz state faces the jihad, the ethnic background does not matter. The target would be Kyrgyz state. Commenting on these events, Bishkek-based expert Kadyr Malikov already said: "some terrorist groups represent the interests of other states"…De facto he is right but it is necessary to specify the states. Unlimited liberalism together with unlimited corruption made Kyrgyzstan the weakest state in the region. The coups also contributed to current situation. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan is the first candidate to repeat the Kosovo scenario. Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and others are just the elements in this process of redistribution of global borders, designed in the American brain centers.