4
REASONS THAT MAKE THE REGION IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY Security risks emanating from the unsettled disputes Rivalry on energy resources and routes

5
SECURITY RISKS The Armenian invasion of Azerbaijani territories Armenia has no future plan to withdraw from the Nagorno- Karabakh and adjacent regions Security Council resolutions do not work Minsk Group is not effective International community has no pressure on Armenia Russian mediation helps the Armenian side

6
SECURITY RISKS Separatist regions in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia The new status quo in the aftermath of the August War of 2008 The entities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia survive under Russian protection

7
RIVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES Competition over the operation and delivery routes of Caspian oil and gas resources Russia’s efforts to stay monopoly and resurgence to control the routes Azeri oil and gas, Kazakh oil, Turkmen gas Europe’s search for different suppliers Western companies’ involvement

10
TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS Turkey-Azerbaijan- Georgia relations improved Energy links increased Cooperation in defense industry is developing A trilateral group is emerging

11
TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS Reconciliation attempt in 2009 between Turkey and Armenia Temporary chill between Turkey and Azerbaijan Protocols could not produce results

12
ARMENIA’S GOALS FOR 2015 Armenia’s claims regarding the 1915 evens Diaspora’s activities Preparations for the 2015, the first anniversary of the 1915 events Attitude of US Congress Armenia will try to secure Vatican’s and pro-Israeli lobbies for the 2015 goals

14
PKK/KCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS PKK/KCK’s activities in Armenia and Nagorno- Karabakh Fund-raising activities PKK/KCK operates in South Caucasus under the guise of seemingly civilian institutions, associations and foundations. Attempt to recruit Yezidis in Armenia Certain Armenian political parties are known to have links with the terrorist PKK/KCK