Saturday, April 26, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. RIMM alone has passed all five.

Symbol

Top Ranked

Zacks

PEG

SuppDem

VL

IBD Stock checkup

RIMM

1

1

1

1

1

A

LNN

1

1

1

1

A+

RIG

1

1

1

1

A+

ACI

1

1

1

A+

AXYS

1

1

1

A+

BIDU

1

1

2

A+

DE

1

1

1

A+

JOYG

1

1

1

A+

MA

1

1

1

A+

MON

1

1

1

A+

MOS

1

1

1

A+

NOV

1

1

1

A+

PCLN

1

1

1

A+

POT

1

1

1

A+

ANSS

1

2

1

A

CLHB

1

2

1

A

DVN

1

1

1

A

ESRX

1

1

1

A

GFA

1

1

1

A

HXM

1

1

2

A

IVGN

1

2

1

A

KEX

1

2

1

A

MANT

1

1

1

A

NFLX

1

1

1

A

PRGO

1

1

1

A

WMB

1

2

1

A

GLW

1

2

1

A-

This week, I welcome the following four stocks to the core list:

MANT

MON

NFLX

PRGO

ManTech International (MANT) provides solutions for national security programs. Monsanto ("Without chemicals, life itself could not exist": a truism that becomes less true by repetition) uses genomics to make agricultural plants with very cool characteristics. NetFlix (NFLX) was founded by a guy who was quite unhappy with his Blockbuster late charges for renting Apollo 13. They mail you DVDs and charge you a flat monthly fee. Perrigo (PRGO) distributes pharmaceuticals, both O-T-C and by prescription.

FLIR and MUR are off the core list.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol

Passing weeks

Earnings

RIG

10

Earn 7-May

BUCY

9

PCLN

9

Earn 8-May

RIMM

9

Earn 25-Jun

ESRX

8

Earn 29-Apr

ISRG

7

GLW

7

Earn 29-Apr

LIFC

6

FLS

6

Earn 28-Apr

KWK

5

Earn 7-May

WFR

5

MATK

5

NOV

5

Earn 30-Apr

POT

5

Earn 24-Apr

WMB

5

Earn 2-May

MANT

5

Earn 30-Apr

MON

5

NFLX

5

PRGO

5

Earn 6-May

moving down this week

moving up this week

new this week

I am reading Invest Like a Dealmaker by Chris Mayer. He likes to make his money the old fashioned way: look at balance sheets and find companies with a tiny ratio of Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA).

I read an article in March's Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities by John Ehlers. The intent of the article was to determine the fundamental cycle of a commodity or stock. I suppose that if one were able to do this well, one could buy at the bottom of a cycle and sell at a top. Here is a chart that shows Ehlers doing a Stop-And-Reverse on the S&P mini. Might be worth a few hours of playing around in TradeStation to see if there are any markets that will play nicely with Ehlers' cycles.

I hope you're doing well. My shorts are doing poorly, but hey, that's life in the big city. The Day of the Bears may yet come upon us.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. BUCY, RIG, and RIMM have passed all five. IBD is also listing RIG as having broken out of a cup-and-handle (a good thing).

Symbol

Top Ranked

Zacks

PEG

SuppDem

VL

IBD Stock checkup

BUCY

1

1

2

1

1

A+

RIG

1

1

1

1

1

A+

RIMM

1

1

1

1

1

A

CSX

1

1

1

1

A+

DE

1

1

1

1

A+

MOS

1

1

1

1

A+

NOV

1

1

1

1

A+

POT

1

1

1

1

A+

WFT

1

1

1

1

A+

BIDU

1

1

2

1

A

ISRG

1

2

1

1

A

ARD

1

1

1

A+

AXYS

1

1

1

A+

CAM

1

1

1

A+

FSLR

1

2

1

A+

JOYG

1

1

1

A+

KWK

1

1

1

A+

MON

1

1

1

A+

NE

1

1

1

A+

NFLX

1

2

1

A+

PRGO

1

1

1

A+

RDC

1

1

1

A+

RRC

1

1

1

A+

ANSS

1

2

1

A

CELG

1

1

1

A

CLHB

1

2

1

A

ESRX

1

1

1

A

EZPW

1

1

1

A

GME

1

1

1

A

HLF

1

1

1

A

KEX

1

2

1

A

MANT

1

1

1

A

MATK

1

1

1

A

MPWR

1

1

1

A

SOL

1

1

1

A

GLW

1

2

1

A-

WMB

1

2

1

A-

MA and TNE are off the core list, but I welcome NOV and WMB back on the list. (These two have been off the list for only three and four weeks, respectively.)

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol

Passing weeks

Earnings

BUCY

10

RIG

10

Earn 7-May

PCLN

9

Earn 17-Apr

ESRX

8

ISRG

8

RIMM

8

Earn 25-Jun

LIFC

7

GLW

7

FLS

6

WFR

6

KWK

6

Earn 7-May

FLIR

5

Earn 24-Apr

MATK

5

MUR

5

Earn 30-Apr

POT

5

Earn 24-Apr

NOV

5

WMB

5

moving down this week

moving up this week

new this week

Henry and I are discussing whether the DJIA is putting in a bottom or is in the midst of a sucker's rally. I don't know, but I I am gingerly holding on to my bearish bias. What do you think? Do you see higher lows and higher highs (bullish)? Or lower lows and lower lows (bearish)? Or some indefinitive combination of the two? I'll let you decide for yourself. Henry, if it's any consolation, IBD is siding with you: "Market in confirmed rally." As for me, I know that the news reports can misinterpret or lie, while the charts always portray what has happened and gives a fair guess as to what may happen.

I visited my mom in Silver Spring, MD. She celebrated her birthday last Saturday. I also helped her and dad decide on a new (used) car: a Toyota Camry. It did well on Consumer Report's "Best Used Cars under $20000" list. It also did well on crash tests, possibly because of the side air bags.

We went to Carmax first, and then Enterprise Car Sales. The former helped us narrow down which models were of interest. The latter offered a better price. It was interesting to walk into the Enterprise Car Sales and say exactly what we wanted: A Toyota Camry, last year or two, fewer than 20,000 miles, and the LE trim package. All the salesman had to do was to check his database. He brought up a car from Fairfax the next morning.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters. RIMM is back on top of the heap, passing all five.

Symbol

Top Ranked

Zacks

PEG

SuppDem

VL

IBD Stock checkup

RIMM

1

1

1

1

1

A

BUCY

1

1

2

1

A+

RIG

1

1

1

1

A+

AGU

1

1

1

A+

AXYS

1

1

1

A+

JOYG

1

1

1

A+

LNN

1

1

1

A+

MON

1

1

1

A+

NFLX

1

2

1

A+

NOV

1

1

1

A+

PCLN

1

1

1

A+

PRGO

1

1

1

A+

WFT

1

1

1

A+

CLHB

1

2

1

A

ESRX

1

1

1

A

FLIR

1

1

1

A

GLW

1

2

1

A

KEX

1

2

1

A

MANT

1

1

1

A

MATK

1

1

1

A

VIP

1

1

1

A

Martek Biosciences (MATK) is back on the core list, having dropped off a month ago. The company still develops and manufactures essential fatty acids, such as docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA). I take DHA and EPA supplements each morning because of some of the claimed benefits of better brain function and a lower risk of cardiovascular disease.

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol

Passing weeks

Earnings

BUCY

10

PCLN

9

Earn 17-Apr

RIG

9

Earn 7-May

ISRG

8

LIFC

8

ESRX

8

FLS

7

RIMM

7

Earn 25-Jun

WFR

6

FLIR

6

Earn 24-Apr

GLW

6

TNE

5

KWK

5

Earn 7-May

MA

5

Earn 28-Apr

MUR

5

Earn 30-Apr

POT

5

Earn 24-Apr

MATK

5

moving down this week

moving up this week

new this week

I had a great time presenting "Technical Analysis, the odds-on favorite" at the Charlotte Chapter of the AAII. It was a great crowd, with one guy coming from Greensboro and another from Columbia, SC. I hope it was worth the gas money!

During the meeting, I pointed out a bullish divergence for Delta Air Lines. One attendee pointed out the avalanche of bad news concerning airlines in general and Delta in particular. His point was well taken, but it may be at the heart of technical analysis: since the stock was not moving lower, and the MACD was moving higher, it indicated that the bears were losing their will to push the stock further down. It's also possible that the bad news had already been accounted for in the stock price. That meant that DAL had some upside potential. On Monday morning, there was some talk of Delta merging with Northwest, and it was up as much as 5%. (I'm not trying to call a bottom here, but it is nice when the indicators line up and make sense!)

Oh, I finished my taxes, also. By the way, H&R Block offers a charming online program, which does not substitute for the CD version. Little things, like importing your stock transactions, cannot be done online. The people at the Davis Lake H&R office were kind and took pity on me, and gave my taxes a once over. (I'm still scratching my head, but by removing a $114 penalty, I pay $299 less in federal taxes and get a larger NC refund.)

Monday, April 7, 2008

Here are the weekly stocks the passed three or more of my five filters.

For my friends who live in or near Charlotte, I will be presenting at the AAII Charlotte meeting this coming Saturday, April 12, at 10 A.M. You may find out more about the time and place at this AAII page.

Symbol

Top Ranked

Zacks

PEG

SuppDem

VL

IBD Stock checkup

RIG

1

1

1

1

A+

AGU

1

1

1

A+

BUCY

1

2

1

A+

FLS

1

1

1

A+

ISRG

1

2

1

A+

LIFC

1

2

1

A+

LNN

1

1

1

A+

MON

1

1

1

A+

NFLX

1

2

1

A+

PCLN

1

1

1

A+

PRGO

1

1

1

A+

WFT

1

1

1

A+

BMC

1

1

1

A

ESRX

1

1

1

A

MANT

1

1

1

A

MATK

1

1

1

A

MUR

1

1

1

A

RIMM

1

1

1

A

Murphy Oil (MUR) is new on the core list. The company explores, produces and refines oil and gas. (Do you think there's a pattern in companies coming onto the core list?)

Core list (with n of 10 weeks passing):

Symbol

Passing weeks

Earnings

BUCY

9

LIFC

8

ISRG

8

PCLN

8

Earn 17-Apr

RIG

8

Earn 7-May

ESRX

7

FLS

7

TNE

6

WFR

6

RIMM

6

Earn 25-Jun

POT

5

Earn 24-Apr

FLIR

5

Earn 24-Apr

GLW

5

KWK

5

Earn 7-May

MA

5

Earn 28-Apr

MUR

5

Earn 30-Apr

moving down this week

moving up this week

new this week

A fairly positive week, almost enough to get me out of my bearish hibernation. Almost. IBD is declaring that we are in a market rally now, with the Dow dancing about 12,800. We're not that far, either in time or distance (Jan 2008 and 11,600) from our previous low that was retested only a few weeks ago. The Dow and Nasdaq are approaching previous resistance levels, and the bulls are itching for it to push through those levels.

Let's wait and see. In the mean time, I am doing much better in commodities than in this choppy stock market. My best success in the latter was being exercised my naked CLB puts and being put the shares last December at 120. Now that CLB has pushed through its upper Bollinger Band, I am selling covered calls on it. (Let's try to keep Mr. Market happy, and buy when he's miserable and sell to him when he's elated.)