I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.

Here is a table from housing economist Tom Lawler showing the year-over-year (YoY) change for National inventory from the NAR, and the YoY change for California from the CAR.

It appears the YoY declines are slowing, and especially in California.

YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale

NAR
(National)

CAR
(California)

Sep-17

-8.4%

-11.2%

Oct-17

-10.4%

-11.5%

Nov-17

-9.7%

-11.5%

Dec-17

-11.5%

-12.0%

Jan-18

-9.5%

-6.6%

Feb-18

-8.6%

-1.3%

Mar-18

-7.2%

-1.0%

The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Sacramento (through March), and also total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (also through March 2018).

Click on graph for larger image.

This shows the year-over-year change in inventory for Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas. The black line if the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR.

Note that inventory in Sacramento was up 19% year-over-year in March (inventory still very low), and has increased year-over-year for six consecutive months.

Also note the inventory is still down sharply in Las Vegas (red), but the YoY decline has been getting smaller.

I'll try to add a few other markets.

Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I will be watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.