See attachment for current pricing data for 250 mile radius from Hartford

Avg price is 38580 - 0.1458*Mileage. That means an average deal for an average equipped car is about $34,100 given a mileage of 30,630. Average variability on sales prices is about $2,500 for a given mileage.

CPO and options will certainly offset the price on the higher end - more so the CPO. If you can get the average price at that mileage ($34,100) less the standard deviation ($2,500), then given the fact that its CPO and has some options, then that car would be a steal at $31,600.

If this car is being sold at a BMW dealership, then I think the absolute best you will do on that car is $32k flat. Whoever said $30-$31k is dreaming based on the 528xi market data in your area.

$32,900 is pretty decent. If they refuse to go lower on the sales price, then you have a few options. You can ask them to make your first monthly payment - effectively lowering the price to low $32s. If the car needs new tires soon you can also attempt to negotiate that in as a non-cash item OR ask for a check back to cover a portion of the cost of replacing the car with new tires (once again really only an option if the tires are a bit worn).

Just like when selling a house, some things look much better on the books in certain ways even though the net effect in the end is nearly the same for the buyer. For a dealership it looks much better if they sell a car for $32,900 and then make a $700 car payment compared to selling it for $32,200.