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President Harry Truman would get frustrated with his economic advisors because they would always vacillate and hedge their forecasts with comments like: “it depends” and “on the other hand”. Truman would get so mad, he’d shout, “Get me a one-armed economist ! “

Today I could have used a one-armed strategy. My gut told me that this week’s Federal Reserve announcement will placate Wall Street enough to overlook the instability in China- thus the market is likely to rally above 2050 points on the S&P500.

ON THE OTHER HAND…my gut senses a short-lived “suckers” rally. The market has broken long term support and Institutional Investors haven’t come in to “buy the dip” as they have in the recent past.

Mid-morning I was prepared to buy an overweight position in the S&P500 index…but I fought back the impulse with a slightly stronger conviction to error on the side of safety. I might have just missed the year’s best buying opportunity.

Was that an act of cowardice or a display of wisdom? Time will tell.

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