SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Will The Martian overcome Gravity?

NASA announced the discovery of recent water on Mars this week just as The Martian [MARTN] arrives theaters. Fox can’t be any happier with the free publicity for their PG-13 rated sci-fi film. Matt Damon [MDAMO] stars as an astronaut stranded on the red planet who must survive solely on his scientific knowledge. Damon played a similar role in Interstellar, which opened to $47.5 million last November, while Sandra Bullock's stranded-in-space flick Gravity set the October record two years ago at $55.8 million. Advance tickets sales are pacing ahead of Gravity. However, The Martian runs an hour longer and does not have the higher-priced IMAX screens that propelled Gravity. The film is highly anticipated by fans of the best-selling novel and the overwhelmingly positive reviews only build the buzz. If hurricane Joaquin doesn’t hit the East Coast, The Martian could land $58 million from 3826 locations.

Hotel Transylvania 2 [HTRN2] prove more popular than ever. Sony’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 declined 38% in its second weekend. A similar decay would put Hotel Transylvania 2 around $29 million.

Older women turned out for the comedy The Intern [INTRN] and should continue to do so. The Intern could hold 60% in its second weekend for $10.5 million.

After two weeks of limited release, Sicario [SICAR] expands wide into 2620 theaters. The R-rated crime drama about the border war on drugs has garnered critical acclaim. Though Lionsgate faces competition for the same audience from The Martian. Sicario may have to settle with $10 million.

Everest [EVRST] did not breakout in its wide expansion. With the loss of most IMAX screens to The Walk, Everest may descend to $6 million.

The Walk [TWALK] opened on 448 IMAX screens Wednesday and grossed just $0.24 million. The 1974-set film stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] as the real-life Frenchman who tightwalked across a wire strung between the Twin Towers. There’s little buzz as moviegoers appear uninterested in revisiting the CG site of the 9-11 tragedy. The Walk may reach $4 million.