Poll: Anthony Weiner already in second place in NYC mayoral race for some reason

posted at 12:41 pm on April 17, 2013 by Allahpundit

The bad news? Between this and what’s going on in South Carolina, American voters seem to have finally jettisoned any pretense of standards for their political leaders.

The good news? We’re still on track for a Sanford-versus-Weiner presidential election in 2028. Cross those fingers.

According to the poll, if Weiner entered the Democratic primary today, his 15 percent would put him behind Quinn’s 26 percent but ahead of City Comptroller John Liu (12 percent), de Blasio (11 percent), Thompson (11 percent) and former City Councilman Sal Albanese (2 percent).

By comparison, without Weiner, Quinn would receive 30 percent of Democratic votes and de Blasio would be second with 15 percent, followed by Thompson (14 percent), Liu (11 percent) and Albanese (2 percent).

In short, with Weiner in the race, Quinn, de Blasio and Thompson all suffer.

“He’d make it much more difficult for anyone to reach 40 percent to avoid a runoff,” Miringoff said…

Pollsters asked general election voters about two hypothetical November matchups against likely Republican nominee Joe Lhota. If Quinn was the Democratic nominee, she’d beat Lhota 59 percent to 19 percent. If Weiner were the nominee, he’d beat Lhota 51 percent to 28 percent. In both scenarios, 21 percent said they were undecided.

The city hasn’t had a Democratic mayor in nearly 20 years and there’s no Giuliani or Bloomberg (nominally an independent) on the Republican ticket this time. Whoever wins the Dem primary is a heavy favorite to win the general, and right now only 34 percent of Dems say they’re strongly committed to their current candidate. If Weiner ends up in a runoff with Quinn, whose polling is obviously weak, why couldn’t he win?

His popularity within his own party is below 50 percent without a single attack ad having been fired at him yet. By comparison, Quinn’s favorable rating among Democrats is 59/23. He’s well known compared to most of the field (how could he not be?), which likely explains why he’s got 15 percent right out of the chute. But what happens when you nudge voters about the … “unpleasantness” of two years ago? This:

There are more Democrats who say they wouldn’t consider voting for him than would. But those numbers will move: If he seems contrite and talks nothing but policy policy policy, as he’s already doing, he can try to remake himself as the flawed guy who’s got too many good ideas for left-leaning New Yorkers not to give him a serious look. (Turn the election into a referendum on redemption, as Sanford did in the SC-1 primary, and he’ll get some consideration.) And if something scandal-ish happens with Quinn, that gives him a chance to say that everyone’s flawed, which means the race should be about substance and not dirty laundry. His big problem vis-a-vis Quinn is fundraising, but he’s got a few months to build on his polling here to convince old friends with deep pockets that he’s worth taking a chance on. The vibe on Twitter seems to be that he has sub-zero chance to win, but I’d give him, say, 10 percent. Good lord, I think I’m talking myself into this. Weiner for mayor! May a thousand skeevy tweets from Gracie Mansion bloom!

The facts that he’s already in position to make the runoff as it stands, that his favorables are going in the right direction, and that the frontrunner is stalled, are all good signs. That doesn’t mean he will win. I am still partial to the possibility of Bill Thompson overhauling the others, given the math above.

At this point, all the candidates’ hopes are very much alive. But do I think Anthony Weiner can win this thing? Absolutely, he could.

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You know, if there are still any Republicans in New York City, this might create an opportunity for one of them to get elected mayor, if the Democrats decide to nominate a man best known for tweeting lewd photos of himself.

I realize that the Republican Party is known for taking any opportunity to lose an election, but if the Democrats want to try that instead in NYC this year, we should be prepared.

Either Quinn or Lhota need to contact the women to whom Weiner sent pictures of his weiner, get copies of the photos, and spread them over the Internet–with a caption “This is what Anthony Weiner will do to our city”.

You know, if there are still any Republicans in New York City, this might create an opportunity for one of them to get elected mayor, if the Democrats decide to nominate a man best known for tweeting lewd photos of himself.

I realize that the Republican Party is known for taking any opportunity to lose an election, but if the Democrats want to try that instead in NYC this year, we should be prepared.

J.S.K. on April 17, 2013 at 12:57 PM

Former Giuliani deputy Joe Lhota’s the likely GOP nominee. He ran operations at Madison Square Garden and last year got credit from the NYC media for having the agency prepared to avoid damage to their rolling stock when Hurricane Sandy struck, as well as getting most bus and subway lines back running within 1-2 weeks of the storm.

It was that action and the support he got that led Lhota to step down as MTA boss to run for mayor as a Republican. But we are now 24 years since the last time NYC voters actually elected the Democratic Party’s nominee as mayor, and some 18-19 year-olds who can vote this November will never have lived a day of their lives in New York with an official Democrat in City Hall. Weiner getting nominated might give Lhota a chance, but liberal NYers by now have forgotten or never remembered the worst of the Dinkins era, so I would guess they’re going to get to relive them a couple of years from now.

Hey, why pick on him? New York voters always seek the finest qualities and character in their candidates for office and once they find someone with a sterling set of attributes, they then reject them and vote for the opposite qualities in the most morally corrupt competitor.

Yep, there is no intelligent life in NY. Bloomberg for multiple terms and now this fool. And please stop calling Bloomberg a Republcan. He scammed the dumb -ass voters into thinking he would continue Giuliani’s work. They wanted an adult at the helm after 911.