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Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of
Mexico Loop Current: Critical Gaps and
Recommendations
Committee on Advancing Understanding of Gulf of Mexico
Loop Current Dynamics
Gulf Research Program
A Consensus Study Report of
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program Fund. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the
views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24823
Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313;
http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018.
Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current: Critical Gaps and
Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:
https://doi.org/10.17226/24823.
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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by
President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues
related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding
contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation.
Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D.
Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in
1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical
and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to
medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering,
and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and
conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The
National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding
contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science,
engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at
www.nationalacademies.org.
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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and
Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an
authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and
recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs
deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review
process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and
Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or
other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in
proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the
planning committee, or the National Academies.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please
visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
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Â Â
Â
REVIEWERS
Â
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure
that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to
the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the
integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
PAT HOGAN, Naval Research Laboratory
ALEXIS LUGO-FERNANDEZ, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
JAMES J. RILEY, University of Washington
NAN D. WALKER, Louisiana State University
CARL WUNSCH, Harvard University
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions,
they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they
see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by DAVID M.
KARL, University of Hawaii. He was responsible for making certain that an independent
examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National
Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final
content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Â Â
viiÂ
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One of the most significant, energetic, yet not well understood, oceanographic features in the Americas is the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current System (LCS), consisting of the Loop Current (LC) and the Loop Current Eddies (LCEs) it sheds. Understanding the dynamics of the LCS is fundamental to understanding the Gulf of Mexico’s full oceanographic system, and vice versa. Hurricane intensity, offshore safety, harmful algal blooms, oil spill response, the entire Gulf food chain, shallow water nutrient supply, the fishing industry, tourism, and the Gulf Coast economy are all affected by the position, strength, and structure of the LC and associated eddies.

This report recommends a strategy for addressing the key gaps in general understanding of LCS processes, in order to instigate a significant improvement in predicting LC/LCE position, evolving structure, extent, and speed, which will increase overall understanding of Gulf of Mexico circulation and to promote safe oil and gas operations and disaster response in the Gulf of Mexico. This strategy includes advice on how to design a long-term observational campaign and complementary data assimilation and numerical modeling efforts.

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