A political barometer of sorts, this agrarian constituency that saw a big farmers stir few years ago, has always elected a member of the party that went on to form the government in TN.

If the mood in Vedasandur assembly constituency in Dindigul district that has elected a party that formed the government at Chennai since the late 50s, is anything to go by, AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa may well return as chief minister after the May 16 elections.

A political barometer of sorts, this agrarian constituency that saw a big farmers stir few years ago, has always elected a member of the party that went on to form the government in TN.

Since the late 50s till date, Vedasandur has the distinction of always having the ruling party member as its representative, though it has not helped the constituency much in terms of its development and progress.

Something that the present AIADMK candidate, debutant VPB Paramasivam, son of ex-deputy speaker of TN Assembly VP Balasubramaniam is determined to change. He told HT that his campaign was going smoothly and he expected people to vote for Amma because of her good work. Paramasivam has the locals rooting for him as his father enjoyed tremendous reputation because of his good work in the area.

“There is no rational explanation for the voting pattern in the constituency that its electorate can detect the winner in advance. It is just a matter of chance and strong sentiment that whoever wins from here forms the government,” he said.

Prof S Janakarajan of MIDS too said there was no scientific explanation, but added this time the sentiment on the ground in Vedasandur seems to augur well for the incumbent CM. Starting from the time of Congress veteran K Karamraj in the 50s, Vedasandur ensured that it sent the ruling party MLA to champion its cause in the assembly.

In the 1967 election, Dravida Kazhagam led by CN Annadurai dethroned Congress, but its partner CPM emerged victorious. Similarly, in 1971, Vedasandur alternated DMK and AIADMK as its representatives, like rest of the state, electing Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa alternatively as the CM. In 2006, the DMK and Congress fought the elections in an alliance and the seat was left to Congress. It won the seat and alliance partner DMK form ed the government. In 2011, AIADMK representative S Palanichamy won the seat in the sweep generated by AIADMK-DMDK combine that relegated the DMK to a poor third in the assembly.

This time around, the AIADMK has had a head start in the campaigning as the Congress is yet to name its candidate. Paramsivam said, “I am winning, if we go by the local sentiments. This will be a victory of madam Jayalalithaa and her all round development of the state.” But, he was quick with a disclaimer, “I have no rationale behind this.”