This report shows that the US is more exposed to disruptions to bilateral intermediate trade flows than China. In addition, also exporters and consumers in third countries such as the Netherlands feel the pinch from a disruption in supply chains between China and the US.

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

The recent announcement from the US to further up the ante in the trade dispute with China clearly marks a new escalation in the trade war. If one takes China’s recent response into account, it’s hard to see either side trying to ease tensions at this stage.

The US-China trade war will probably accelerate a shift of foreign production out of China. Our new ‘Where Will They Go index’ shows that Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and India are likely to benefit from this production relocation.

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.

A consortium led by Facebook recently announced the introduction of a new cryptocurrency, the Libra. Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, the Libra will be fully covered by financial assets. If the Libra actually gets off the ground, it potentially also has a greater impact on the financial system than other cryptos.

Our outlook for the global economy has become less rosy and the downside risks have increased. Global trade, for example, is clearly slowing down and we expect a recession in the US by the end of 2020. We also expect the trade war between the US and China to linger on for a sustained period of time.