Dynasty Stock Report: Andy Dalton

The player movement suggestions contained in the Dynasty Stock Report is not an indictment of a player’s talent or skill set as much as it is designed to bring to light a player’s situation and how that situation can increase or decrease that player’s value both now and long term. The Dynasty Stock ReportHere’s a look at my stock report for the third week of July

Buy: Andy Dalton

Mr. Dalton has the distinction of being the first QB to make the Dynasty Stock Report. He truly is the redheaded stepchild of the NFL. Dalton is a durable quarterback that has played all 16 games in five of the last six seasons. He only managed 13 games in 2015 because of a thumb injury that came in week 14 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has been a top 12 fantasy starting QB in three of the last six seasons. If not for injury in 2015, Dalton would have had four top 12 finishes out of the last six seasons.

Why He’s a Buy:

Andy and the Bengals should have the band back together, including some new players, for the 2017 season. Dalton was without the services of Pro Bowl tight end, Tyler Eifert, for the better part of the first 8 games of 2016. He was then without the services of Pro Bowl wide receiver, AJ Green, for the final seven games of 2016. Dalton managed to finish at QB12 in 2016, despite not having his best two pass catchers for a near full season combined. Dalton finished last in red zone efficiency last year, with a 51.39% completion rate inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, which was down from his 53.02% average from 2012-2015. This illustrates the impact of the loss of these two weapons that he should get back for 2017.

The Bengals added some new firepower to the offense via the rookie draft in April. They added Washington Husky speedster, John Ross, in the first round and Oklahoma’s star running back, Joe Mixon in the second round. Ross will give Dalton and the Bengals a field stretcher to pull the top off of the defense with his 4.22 40-yard combine record breaking speed. Mixon was one of the best pass catching running backs coming out of the 2017 draft class and should provide a nice outlet for Dalton out of the backfield. Veteran receiver Brandon LaFell, second-year receiver Tyler Boyd and fourth round rookie receiver Josh Malone round out what looks to be the best set of weapons that Dalton has had to work with during his time in Cincinnati. This is assuming the healthy returns of Eifert and Green.

Dalton is coming off a 563 pass attempt season that led to 4206 total passing yards, but only 18 passing touchdowns. The good news is that the 563 attempts were the 11th most in the NFL in 2016. More goods news? Dalton averaged eight yards per attempt in 2016. That is the same average as Brees, Luck, Cousins, Wilson and Brady. His eight yards per attempt was better than Stafford, Carr and the number one fantasy QB in 2016, Aaron Rodger who finished at seven yards per attempt.

Lastly, Dalton is probably not a league mate’s number one quarterback either. This should mean that the other owner is more willing to hear your offers than if you were trying to acquire Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. He’s an obtainable asset that should provide solid value at a reasonable price.

Who’s Buying?

Are you worried about Andrew Luck’s shoulder? Did you buy or draft Cam Newton during or just after the 2015 season? Are you convinced that no amount coaching can fix Blake Bortles’ mechanics? Was last year a fluke for Matt Ryan? Did you know that Tom Brady is turning 40 in August? Andy Dalton would be your guy if you answered “yes” to any of these questions. Any owner has room on their roster for Dalton.

What to Pay:

The cost point is one that comes down to format. We’ll start with one QB leagues. A third round rookie pick in an upcoming rookie draft is a place to start. Again, Dalton likely isn’t anyone’s starter, and you should not be willing to pay starter prices. Do you have RB or WR depth? Offer a RB or WR of a similar ADP in start ups right now. Dalton is currently player 120 off the board in ADP data collected from dynastyfootballfactory.com.

Running backs in the 110 to 130 range there include Theo Riddick and Duke Johnson. Wide receivers in that same range are Kevin White and Eric Decker. You can potentially get Dalton, and a rookie 3rd or some other rookie pick if you were to offer a back or receiver in Dalton’s ADP range. This is a starting point if you have players like Decker or Duke Johnson on the bottom of your bench.

Those in two QB and Superflex will want to and may have to, throw in a rookie first round draft pick to go along with the likes of White, Decker, Riddick or a player in that ADP range. It should come down to what you have an excess of on your roster versus what Dalton’s current owner could use to make a deal.

Be Nice to all your potential business partners in trades out there. Remember the advice of legendary poker player Amarillo Slim, “You can shear a sheep a 100 times, but you can skin it only once.”Follow me on Twitter: @DFFMemphis

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