Despite the monumental big buck sizzle of presidential campaigns, there comes a point when eventually, inevitably, form and substance must be measured.

The mainstream media and rabid left wing may be totally in the tank for Senator Barack Obama, and the youthful, charismatic young Arab-American may look and sound good, however, increasingly, his serial flip-flopping smoke and mirrors act is showing cracks.

Obama supporters will be quick to suggest such an observation is merely the dream quest wish of an Obama critic scared spitless of what the most liberal senator could do the republic partnered with a liberal supermajority and Nancy Pelosi.

However, recent Gallup polling suggests that the race is way closer than mainstream spin purports. Among likely voters, there is only a 2-point spread.

”A new Gallup Poll of likely voters has Democrat Barack Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain.”

That two-point advantage for Obama is well within the statistical margin of error, and, as Ann Coulter recently observed, there is increased comment about the “Bradley effect.”

“Named after Tom Bradley, who lost his election for California governor in 1982 despite a substantial lead in the polls,” Coulter explains, “the Bradley effect says that black candidates will poll much stronger than the actual election results.”

Coulter maintains, “…this is the opposite of racism: It is fear of being accused of racism. For most Americans, there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of being called a racist.”

But the “Bradley Effect” is just one component of a more substantial dynamic.

The reasons Obama has not been able to close the deal is not because of unstated racism (although when he loses that will be the focus).

Obama will lose to McCain, and it WILL be close…very close. Unless ACORN and co-conspirators are successful in implementing massive voter fraud, John McCain will win.

Obama will lose because:

1 – He is outside the mainstream group think.a. I have often said most Americans do not subscribe to the gospel of the extreme left OR the extreme right.b. Most Americans remain centrists and jealously protective of their guaranteed inalienable rights.

6 – A growing concern (even among his supporters) that he will say whatever is necessary but cannot be trusted to do what he says.

Coulter’s research into past elections is significant and telling. She noted that when the polls were wrong (and they often are) they “overestimated support for Democrats, usually by about 6 to 10 points.” And here we are with a two-point spread.

Notwithstanding the mainstream protestations and speculation to the contrary, Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by about ten points…despite a pre-election Gallup Poll having Carter leading Reagan “45 percent to 42 percent.”

When Reagan eviscerated Walter Mondale in 1984 ALL the polls significantly underestimated reality by as much as 15 points.

Ultimately, John McCain will defeat Barack Obama, not because he is Ronald Reagan (for sure he isn’t even close), but because a majority of likely American voters don’t believe or trust Obama.

Yes, sadly, there will be a small percentage of “Bradley Effect” voters which (if or when Obama loses) will be the gasoline poured on the glowing embers of Obama’s deceit, duplicity and epic shortcomings.

When Obama loses, it will not be blamed on Obama. It will be blamed on closet racism, ‘Joe the Plumber’ myopia, Bill and Hillary’s lukewarm support, GOP dirty tricks, and the phase of the moon and solar activity.

However, Obama’s loss will be in fact a direct function of Obama…what he is (and isn’t), what he said (and didn’t say), and to a lesser degree, angst that a liberal congress (with a 10% approval rating) should not be granted carte blanc from a President even more tax and spend liberal that them to bleed the American taxpayer even more.

“Geoff Metcalf is a nationally syndicated radio talk show host for TALK AMERICA and a veteran media performer. He has had an eclectic professional background covering a wide spectrum of radio, television, magazine, and newspapers. A former Green Beret and retired Army officer he is in great demand as a speaker. Visit Geoff’s