333w ago - Recently, XBox 360 product manager, Aaron Greenberg, indicated in an interview that the Blu-ray is not the future. He also goes on to take stabs at Sony for some of its decisions regarding the PS3.

Greenberg stated in an interview with Major Nelson, that the Blu-ray is no DVD. He also indicated that the Blu-ray format could be the next UMD. I assume he is attempting to correlate UMD as a failed format for movies. An odd comparison considering that the UMD is a Sony PSP-only format. I assume you could also say then, that the Nintendo DS cartridge is a failed format as well.

Greenberg said: "We have no plans to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience,.. We believe that we shouldn't force consumers to pay for things they don't want. We also believe that the future's digital, and that's why we've invested in a massive library of entertainment content."

This supports my recent story detailing how Microsoft's nickel and dime business practice is financially savvier than Sony's model. However, the part about offering consumers more options probably wasn't what Microsoft had in mind as Peter Moore recently confirmed that the decision to release an Xbox 360 model with no hard drive was based on the extreme desire to bring the Xbox division into the black.

He also said: "No one knows what Blu-ray will be. It's pretty clear it is not the next DVD, right? The days of one physical format being the standard are gone... Let's say right now we're not sure if it's the next UMD or the next DVD."

Apparently, analysts and vendors are stating that Blu-ray is definitely no DVD; in fact, according to them, it is actually doing much better than the DVD did 11 years ago. Analysts report from Format War Central, that the Blu-ray format has picked up 145.68% week over week with the release of Iron Man which took a huge 17% of total movie disc sales.

Reuters also reported that optical equipment parts manufacturer, Singulus Technologies, estimated that the Blu-ray format acceptance is much greater then that of the DVD 11 years ago. Singulus also stated that the demand for Blu-ray is about two times more than that of the DVD 11 years ago.

I suppose the Blu-ray acceptance rate doesn't translate well to our Internet -induced ADD mentality. In an ever increasing connected world, consumers want instant gratification and action. Only time will tell how successful Blu-ray will be. However, with the US switching to HD sometime in 2009, Blu-ray's success seems inevitable.

I haven't bought a Blu-ray disc yet for my PS3. They're the same price at Blockbuster, so I've rented several, but for a lot of movies (most?) they're overkill. For F/X blockbusters, sure ("Iron Man" on Blu-ray is on my xmas list), but I can honestly say that Blu-ray didn't make "27 Dresses" any better. (Don't laugh. One day you'll be married, too.)

It's entirely possible that download will be the next VHS (the standard, 'good enough' format) and Blu-ray will be the next Laserdisc (the boutique, 'enthusiast' format). And as bandwidth improves, download could become the next DVD.

And even then, for a lot of people, Blu-ray is serious overkill. My wife barely notices the difference between Blu-ray and upscaled DVD (and we've got a 52" 1080p). Our neighbor down the street bought a 65" 1080p months ago... and didn't have any HD feeds at all for it. I kid you not, last week I had to show him how to do a channel search to get the unencrypted digital channels off of his cable. I truly can't comprehend that one. But I doubt he'll be a fast adopter of Blu-ray.