UFC on FOX 5 preview: With Henderson-Diaz, a title bout returns to network TV

One of the main selling points of the UFC’s network TV debut became an albatross as the promotion’s relationship with FOX developed.

A heavyweight title fight between then-champ Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos set expectations high for the quality of fight cards delivered on network-televised shows, even though the November 2011 bout’s quality fell short of expectations when Dos Santos knocked out the then-champ in 64 seconds.

Ratings for the event, which peaked at 8.8 million viewers and averaged 5.7 million, indicated the UFC was attracting the kind of casual interest that propelled the sport to greater heights in 2005.

That event wasn’t even a part of the schedule planned for UFC on FOX events since the broadcast partnership didn’t get underway until 2012. Yet there were persistent rumblings that the UFC on FOX cards of this year were not of the quality needed to entice fans. Overall ratings for events suggested a decline in interest following the heavily promoted, easily accessible meeting between the big men. UFC on FOX 2 (4.7 million), UFC on FOX 3 (2.4 million) and UFC on FOX 4 (2.4 million) ratings averages reinforced that possibility, though FOX officials later admitted that mistakes were made when scheduling the programming against other high-traffic sporting events.

Saturday’s UFC on FOX 5 main event is not an attempt to salvage a relationship, if you listen to UFC President Dana White’s assessment of the numbers drawn by the promotion this past year. He continues to insist that the UFC is strong in the demographics where it’s traditionally been strong, and that FOX is happy with the product it purchased for $90 or so million dollars a year for seven years.

But the fact that Saturday’s fight card came together the way it did certainly doesn’t suck.

“I’ve not been this excited for a fight in a really long time,” White said Thursday at a press conference for the event, which takes place at Seattle’s KeyArena. (FOX airs the four-fight main card following prelims on FX and Facebook.)

Promoters are, of course, required to be excited about the product they sell. But Saturday’s main event, a lightweight title bout between champ Benson Henderson and challenger Nate Diaz, could give the promotion more data on what really draws viewers.

While title bouts are thought to be a strong selling point, the significance of those in the lighter weight classes are in question. And neither Henderson nor Diaz, who are both talented and exciting fighters, are proven pay-per-view draws. Of the main-card fighters, ex-champ B.J. Penn, who meets Rory MacDonald, is the one with the most history, name recognition and drawing power. Despite being at the tail end of his career, he received a huge reception from fans during fight-week festivities.

If Penn turns out to be the strongest draw, the hope is that fans who tune in to watch him will stay for a co-main draw between ex-champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Alexander Gustafsson, as well as the Henderson vs. Diaz headliner.

As long as numbers in the young-adult demographics remain strong, the event can be considered a success. FOX Sports President Eric Shanks declined to define to MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) a ratings win for the network, but he said MMA fans can expect the same number (four) of FOX-televised events in 2013.

Meanwhile, fans and pundits who crave significance in fight cards should be nothing less than ecstatic about the card, and more so because it’s free. Combined together, the four main-card fights are more than worth the price of a pay-per-view.

Main-card bouts

Benson Henderson (17-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7 MMA, 10-5 UFC): After edging Frankie Edgar on two separate occasions, Henderson attempts to defend his lightweight title against Diaz, whose UFC career has undergone a resurgence following an unsuccessful run at welterweight, where he was outsized and dominated. A previous run in the lightweight division hit a wall when he fought wrestlers who could smother him on the canvas and against the cage. Diaz seemed to hit the glass ceiling when he met future lightweight title contender Gray Maynard, but after returning to 155 pounds, he looked like a new fighter against Takanori Gomi, Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller, all of whom allowed themselves to fight his boxing-centric, jiu-jitsu-inflected game. Like his brother Nick Diaz, Nate’s ability to convince opponents to do things against their interest is a tangible X-factor in his fight. Henderson, whose strengths lie in areas where Diaz has shown himself weakest, said he’s prepared to stick with his plan. But saying that and doing it are two different things. If the champ is able to keep distance from Diaz with kicks and stuff him against the cage and pound him against the mat, there’s nothing to indicate Diaz will be able to stop him. But until the fight starts taking shape, it will be impossible to predict.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (14-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC): This light-heavyweight fight is billed as a title eliminator, but from the initial response to that designation, fans aren’t giving it much credence. Just a few months ago, Dan Henderson was the No. 1 contender, and Lyoto Machida was second in line. Now both of them appear to have been put in the backseat. That’s a pretty big change, and considering the shellacking Rua took against champ Jon Jones 21 months ago, a rematch would not be a popular idea. Gustafsson is an easier sell, though still an under=appreciated fighter who’s still finding his fan base. In any event, the shifting ground underneath the division almost guarantees that the winner of Saturday’s bout won’t be the first to fight the winner of champ Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen. Stylistically, both Rua and Gustafsson have a major weak point in a potential matchup with Jones or Sonnen, which is their wrestling. Gustafsson has had two years to improve since a lopsided submission loss to Phil Davis, and Jones battered Rua in every range. Against each other, they are more well-matched. The crux of this fight comes down to the shape Rua shows up in for the fight. The ex-champ has far more miles on his body than Gustafsson and has seen wars and injuries that have shortened his lifespan in the cage. In his most recent fight, he tired quickly and ran on fumes in later rounds. Although tough enough to grit out a decision, he looked like time had caught up. If he’s in the same kind of shape this time around, the spritely Gustafsson should run circles around him. If he’s ready to fight, he could give his younger opponent the toughest fight of his life.

B.J. Penn (16-8-2 MMA, 12-7-2 UFC) vs. Rory MacDonald (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC): Reports of a rejuvenated and fired-up Penn are again on the table as the ex-champ returns from retirement to see if he has what it takes to compete with the younger generation. As members of that tribe go, MacDonald is perhaps the toughest specimen to unseat, as his size pose immediate problems for the smaller Penn, who is fighting above his natural lightweight class at 170 pounds. Not only that, but MacDonald’s well-rounded skills and ability to control and damage his opponents on the ground make him kryptonite to Penn, whose boxing skills are his best weapon and best chance of winning the fight. MacDonald has only once lost control inside the octagon, against Carlos Condit at UFC 115, and he returned a stronger and more dangerous fighter. He also appears to be deadly serious about meeting Penn’s challenge; Penn, meanwhile, is smiling and laughing like a day at the beach. The two jawed a bit at the pre-event press conference and seethed during a standoff for photographers, but only Saturday will reveal whether the talented Penn can pull a rabbit out of his hat.

Mike Swick (15-4 MMA, 10-3 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (15-11 MMA, 8-5 UFC): Both aggressive strikers, Swick has predicted a quick fight against the tough Brown, but in a battle of fists, he’s historically been more vulnerable to big punchers. If the two exchange and Swick gets the worse of it, expect him to use his advantage in grappling to trap and submit Brown, whose jiu-jitsu continues to be a weaker point of his game. Regardless, this fight is kicking off the FOX-televised portion of the event for a reason. Expect fireworks.