Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Use the Full Nelson

David Nelson was a piping-hot Week 3 waiver pickup, and deservedly so. A big-bodied (6'5/220) possession threat with better speed than you'd expect (4.45), Nelson racked up 13 targets against Oakland, securing 10 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Formerly a part-time player, Nelson's snap rate leaped from 49.3% in the opener to 83.3% in Week 2 following primary slot man Roscoe Parrish's ankle injury. Parrish is out for the year, leaving Nelson as the heavy favorite for inside receiver targets in a clicking short pass-based offense. Stevie Johnson also has a balky groin. The Pats are getting torched by big wideouts who play the slot (Vincent Jackson: 10-172-2, Brandon Marshall: 7-139). Nelson is a high-upside WR3 in what projects as this week's highest scoring game (53.5-point over-under). Long term, Nelson has breakout potential as a legitimate candidate to lead Buffalo in receiving the rest of the way. His game is a perfect complement to Ryan Fitzpatrick's weak arm ... The Pats, by the way, take Johnson seriously. Buffalo's only truly imposing wideout from a game-plan perspective, Johnson hasn't topped 66 yards in three career meetings with New England.

Ride Fitzpatrick while he's hot, but he'll be a sell-high candidate soon. Fitz started last season on a similar tear with an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 245-yard average in his first four games, before regressing to 5:6 and 208 in the final five. Fitzpatrick's arm strength just can't cut it when the Buffalo elements worsen. He's still a viable QB1 in this projected shootout. ... Scott Chandler is who we thought he was: A nice post-up red-zone target who won't rack up many catches or yards. Chandler will hurt you if he doesn't find the end zone. ... Fred Jackson leads the NFL in rushing through two weeks, and he's got 38 touches compared to C.J. Spiller's 11. I wouldn't expect a 30 1/2-year-old running back to hold up and stay effective over 16 games, but Jackson should be considered a rock-solid RB2 until proven otherwise. He's a solid bet for 90 total yards and a score.

The exact fallout of Aaron Hernandez's MCL sprain is to be determined, but the most immediate benefactor should be Rob Gronkowski. The Pats utilized Hernandez, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Gronk as their top-four receiving options in the first two games, with the quartet accounting for 73 targets on Tom Brady's first 88 attempts (83.0%). Despite two monster weeks, Gronkowski was fourth in the pecking order with 13 targets. (He caught 10 for 172 yards and three TDs.) Look for Gronk to climb the totem pole, getting more balls and remaining Brady's primary red-zone read. There aren't three better tight end plays in the NFL this week. ... New England beat writers have speculated that Chad Ochocinco's role will increase, but this is a prove-it game for him. On the young year, Ocho has played 35-of-151 snaps (23.2%) and is sitting on three catches for 59 scoreless yards. ... Denarius Moore (5-146-1) showed last week that Buffalo's Terrence McGee-less secondary is susceptible to deep threats, and Branch is the closest New England can come. As a top-20 fantasy receiver through two games, Branch is no worse than a reasonable WR3.

Brady is the No. 1 fantasy player entering Week 3, and it's becoming difficult to tell how anyone will stop him, let alone the Bills. In his last six matchups with Buffalo, Brady has an 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Under 300 yards and three scores would be a disappointment. ... Week 1 snap and touch counts in New England's backfield were deceptive. Whereas Danny Woodhead got the ball 15 times in the opener compared to BenJarvus Green-Ellis' seven, it was "Law Firm" in the lead role with 17 touches to Woodhead's six against San Diego. Historically at least, the Pats love to pound Green-Ellis against Buffalo's annually soft front seven. He racked up 211 yards and a touchdown on 37 touches in two games against the Bills last year. Consider BJGE a solid bet to score and RB2/flex. Woodhead is riskier. ... Buffalo has surprisingly held Welker under 50 yards in three straight games. Welker is the No. 4 fantasy receiver through two weeks and could see at least a slightly expanded role due to Hernandez's absence, however, so you should be sure to start him.

Score Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 21

Denver @ Tennessee

The Broncos' defense faked competitiveness against the run in Week 2 by selling out to stop it and making Andy Dalton beat them. Opposing backs have still racked up 260 yards on 50 carries (5.20 YPC) against Denver through two weeks, and they'll have to take a hot Matt Hasselbeck more seriously than the rookie. This is a prime opportunity for Chris Johnson to break out of his funk, and the coaching staff has to know it. Tennessee's run defense schedule may be the league's weakest from Week 3 on, which is a big reason why we recommended Johnson as a buy-low target after his two-game slump. ... Jared Cook remains a worthwhile TE2 stash because of his supreme athletic gifts, but he's nowhere near starting-caliber with five targets through two games. Johnson, Kenny Britt, and Nate Washington are all lapping Cook in the pass-game pecking order.

Britt's hamstring flare-up is concerning because it kept him out of camp and is now a "lingering" injury. The good news is it happened in the first practice of the week, giving Britt three days to get right. All signs still point to Britt playing against the Broncos. Denver is expected to be minus CB Champ Bailey (hamstring) and has little chance of stopping big-time No. 1 receivers without him. A.J. Green lit up Denver for 10 catches, 124 yards, and a touchdown in Week 2. ... Washington has clearly been Tennessee's No. 2 passing-game option with 18 targets in two games. You could do worse in a WR3 spot. Washington just offers scant upside. ... Hasselbeck is engineering an explosive passing offense with a 67.1 completion rate and 8.17 YPA so far. He's a solid QB2.

With DEs Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones healthy, the Titans are quietly putting together a stout pass defense. Through two games, Tennessee has limited opposing quarterbacks to 32-of-56 (57.1%) passing for 372 yards (6.64 YPA), one touchdown, and two interceptions. Luke McCown posed no threat in the opener, but formidable foe Joe Flacco accounted for both picks. Cortland Finnegan shut down Anquan Boldin in the slot last week, and the pass rush took off. The 18th-ranked fantasy passer so far, Kyle Orton is a two-QB league option only. ... Eric Decker was a hot Week 3 waiver pickup, but it's a wait-and-see game for him. Decker's Week 2 stat line (5-113-2) was inflated by No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd's (groin) absence and Eddie Royal's in-game injury. With Tim Tebow forced to play the slot, Decker had zero competition for targets. He's more of a low-end WR3 play, particularly because Decker is likely to see plenty of the physical Finnegan.

Lloyd is expected back, but he too is a dicey option. He's coming off a troublesome groin injury that resulted in a last-minute Week 2 scratch, is facing a pass defense playing at a high level, and now has an emerging Decker to contend with for targets in a run-first offense. Lloyd is a better Week 3 fantasy bet than Decker, but not by a ton. ... Knowshon Moreno was limited in practice all week and is considered questionable to play against the Titans. While Willis McGahee turned in a productive fantasy game in Week 2, he's still averaging a paltry 3.25 yards per carry on the year. If you're hoping to use McGahee -- and I'd encourage you not to -- you'll need to check back for Sunday morning's inactives list. Neither will be a worthwhile fantasy starter if Moreno suits up.

Score Prediction: Titans 24, Broncos 13

Jacksonville @ Carolina

It's a passing offense. The most informed football watchers envisioned a smash-mouth, run-heavy attack after the Panthers made DeAngelo Williams the NFL's (then-) highest paid veteran running back in late July, before naming raw rookie Cam Newton their Week 1 quarterback a month later. Instead, Newton has reeled off 83 pass attempts in two games, 46 (55.4%) of them coming when the game was either tied or Carolina had the lead. A Norv Turner disciple, OC Rob Chudzinski's scheme is aggressive and vertical in nature, and Chud showed a ton of faith in Cam by attacking Green Bay's defense with spread sets and 10 throws on Carolina's first 14 snaps in Week 2. Newton will remain turnover prone -- he currently leads the NFL in interceptions (4) -- but he's going to rack up fantasy points. Newton's running stats (he's already got 71 rushing yards and two touchdowns) will keep him consistent even in down weeks as a passer. So far, Newton ranks second to only Tom Brady in fantasy scoring among QBs. You're late to the dance if you still think he's not a QB1, and the Jags may present Newton's most favorable matchup all year.

While Cam has 83 pass attempts, Jonathan Stewart and Williams have combined for 30 carries. The Panthers employ an even rotation, assigning no roles and using both backs on third downs and in the red zone, depending only on whose series it is at a given time. It will make big fantasy performances tough to predict, and the Jaguars' strength so far is run defense. After revamping their front seven this summer, Jacksonville has held the Jets and Titans to a combined 3.20 YPC, ranking fourth in the NFL against the run. ... Carolina also seems to envision its tight ends as interchangeable. You saw it last week with Jeremy Shockey (3-56) outproducing Greg Olsen (1-34), as the latter blocked more. Olsen is a better fantasy bet because of his superior athleticism, but this kind of usage hurts consistency. It's notable that the Jags gave up nine catches for 111 yards and a TD to Jets tight ends in Week 2. Jacksonville's zone defense is susceptible over the middle. ... Steve Smith leads the NFL in receiving yards -- by 63. Start him until he cools off, but don't bet he will. ... Brandon LaFell has emerged as a nice possession complement to Smith's deep threat, but will be tough to count on as long as he's playing behind Legedu Naanee. LaFell has played 52.0% of the snaps through two games. Naanee (90.8%) started over him last week.

The inept Jaguars offense we all expected showed up in Week 2. Jacksonville didn't enter the red zone once against the Jets and made an early fourth-quarter quarterback change. I had a hard time getting excited about Mike Thomas during fantasy draft season because this offense projects to struggle mightily in the pass game. Having failed to top 55 yards in both of his first two games, Thomas now faces a Panthers defense shutting down opposing No. 1 receivers. Neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Greg Jennings has posted more than 62 yards or three receptions against Carolina, and Jennings got his Week 2 touchdown against nickel safety Jordan Pugh. Expect a rejuvenated Chris Gamble to be on Thomas for the majority of this one. ... The insertion of Blaine Gabbert bodes poorly for Marcedes Lewis. The Jaguars are likely to go run-heavy and use Lewis as a blocker in order to keep their young franchise quarterback healthy. Lewis is a very low-end TE2.

The Jags need to enter Week 3 planning to control this game on the ground, keeping Newton off the field with heavy doses of Maurice Jones-Drew. Carolina is surrendering 4.85 yards per rushing attempt and has lost two starting linebackers in as many weeks after WLB Thomas Davis re-tore his right ACL against Green Bay. A healthy Jones-Drew touched up the Jets for 107 total yards in Week 2, and is now sitting on a rock-solid 4.40 YPC average. Despite his "play count," MJD hasn't seen fewer than 22 touches in either of Jacksonville's first two games, and Deji Karim has continued to struggle mightily (2.40 YPC on 20 rushes). A 30-touch workload should be in order for the Jaguars' feature back. It's time for the coaching staff to remove Jones-Drew's restrictions.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Jaguars 17

Detroit @ Minnesota

Reconfirming himself as one of the league's elite playmakers, Calvin Johnson fought off a double-team filled Week 2 to haul in two TDs and post 14.9 standard league fantasy points against a Chiefs defense that let the rest of the Lions' roster beat them. Fallouts included 93 yards on seven receptions for Nate Burleson, 123 yards and two scores for Jahvid Best, and rookie Titus Young's breakout game (5-89). Folks chalking up Detroit's hot start to fluke are fooling themselves. There aren't four NFL teams with better skill player talent, and the O-Line hasn't allowed a single sack. ... The Vikings get back DT Kevin Williams from suspension in Week 3, so look for the Lions to spray the ball to the exterior of Minnesota's defense. Best could have a very big PPR game. On the year, he's already caught 10 passes for 108 yards while averaging 23.5 touches per week. Even in standard, non-PPR scoring, Best is currently the No. 7 overall fantasy running back.

Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield covers the slot when opponents go to three-wide, so he'll be on Burleson for a good portion of this one. Burleson remains a respectable weekly WR3, but you can use his matchup to break ties. ... Brandon Pettigrew hasn't been productive and missed a bunch of practice time with a shoulder injury. Feel free to bail on him now. ... Tony Scheffler has only two catches through two weeks, but they've both gone for touchdowns. His playing style is a better fit for Matthew Stafford's vertical arm than the plodding Pettigrew. If Pettigrew is inactive for Week 3, consider Scheffler a viable fall-back option. He'd get more snaps and targets. ... Stafford ranks fourth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, and the Lions will have to throw to move the offense Sunday. It's a formula for statistical success. You're witnessing the emergence of a star.

The Lions aren't the pushover run defense of yesteryears, but they'll still struggle to contain an on-fire Adrian Peterson. All Day ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing and fifth in yards per carry among backs with at least 30 attempts. Detroit is permitting 4.60 YPC, so it's not as if they're suddenly the Steelers. ... The Vikings' pass game is hands-off in fantasy leagues, aside from WR3 option Percy Harvin. I call Harvin only an "option" because he's a poor bet to score without a role in red-zone packages, and played a perturbing 44.1% of Minnesota's offensive snaps last week. Vikings fans need to be concerned about their team's coaching staff. OC Bill Musgrave is shooting himself in the foot. ... Molasses Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian can't beat single coverage. They're non-factors both in real life and fantasy. ... Donovan McNabb has lost a large chunk of his mobility going on age 35, which was always a recipe for disaster behind an O-Line that can't pass protect.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 14

1:00PM ET Games

New England @ Buffalo

David Nelson was a piping-hot Week 3 waiver pickup, and deservedly so. A big-bodied (6'5/220) possession threat with better speed than you'd expect (4.45), Nelson racked up 13 targets against Oakland, securing 10 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Formerly a part-time player, Nelson's snap rate leaped from 49.3% in the opener to 83.3% in Week 2 following primary slot man Roscoe Parrish's ankle injury. Parrish is out for the year, leaving Nelson as the heavy favorite for inside receiver targets in a clicking short pass-based offense. Stevie Johnson also has a balky groin. The Pats are getting torched by big wideouts who play the slot (Vincent Jackson: 10-172-2, Brandon Marshall: 7-139). Nelson is a high-upside WR3 in what projects as this week's highest scoring game (53.5-point over-under). Long term, Nelson has breakout potential as a legitimate candidate to lead Buffalo in receiving the rest of the way. His game is a perfect complement to Ryan Fitzpatrick's weak arm ... The Pats, by the way, take Johnson seriously. Buffalo's only truly imposing wideout from a game-plan perspective, Johnson hasn't topped 66 yards in three career meetings with New England.

Ride Fitzpatrick while he's hot, but he'll be a sell-high candidate soon. Fitz started last season on a similar tear with an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 245-yard average in his first four games, before regressing to 5:6 and 208 in the final five. Fitzpatrick's arm strength just can't cut it when the Buffalo elements worsen. He's still a viable QB1 in this projected shootout. ... Scott Chandler is who we thought he was: A nice post-up red-zone target who won't rack up many catches or yards. Chandler will hurt you if he doesn't find the end zone. ... Fred Jackson leads the NFL in rushing through two weeks, and he's got 38 touches compared to C.J. Spiller's 11. I wouldn't expect a 30 1/2-year-old running back to hold up and stay effective over 16 games, but Jackson should be considered a rock-solid RB2 until proven otherwise. He's a solid bet for 90 total yards and a score.

The exact fallout of Aaron Hernandez's MCL sprain is to be determined, but the most immediate benefactor should be Rob Gronkowski. The Pats utilized Hernandez, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Gronk as their top-four receiving options in the first two games, with the quartet accounting for 73 targets on Tom Brady's first 88 attempts (83.0%). Despite two monster weeks, Gronkowski was fourth in the pecking order with 13 targets. (He caught 10 for 172 yards and three TDs.) Look for Gronk to climb the totem pole, getting more balls and remaining Brady's primary red-zone read. There aren't three better tight end plays in the NFL this week. ... New England beat writers have speculated that Chad Ochocinco's role will increase, but this is a prove-it game for him. On the young year, Ocho has played 35-of-151 snaps (23.2%) and is sitting on three catches for 59 scoreless yards. ... Denarius Moore (5-146-1) showed last week that Buffalo's Terrence McGee-less secondary is susceptible to deep threats, and Branch is the closest New England can come. As a top-20 fantasy receiver through two games, Branch is no worse than a reasonable WR3.

Brady is the No. 1 fantasy player entering Week 3, and it's becoming difficult to tell how anyone will stop him, let alone the Bills. In his last six matchups with Buffalo, Brady has an 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Under 300 yards and three scores would be a disappointment. ... Week 1 snap and touch counts in New England's backfield were deceptive. Whereas Danny Woodhead got the ball 15 times in the opener compared to BenJarvus Green-Ellis' seven, it was "Law Firm" in the lead role with 17 touches to Woodhead's six against San Diego. Historically at least, the Pats love to pound Green-Ellis against Buffalo's annually soft front seven. He racked up 211 yards and a touchdown on 37 touches in two games against the Bills last year. Consider BJGE a solid bet to score and RB2/flex. Woodhead is riskier. ... Buffalo has surprisingly held Welker under 50 yards in three straight games. Welker is the No. 4 fantasy receiver through two weeks and could see at least a slightly expanded role due to Hernandez's absence, however, so you should be sure to start him.

Score Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 21

Denver @ Tennessee

The Broncos' defense faked competitiveness against the run in Week 2 by selling out to stop it and making Andy Dalton beat them. Opposing backs have still racked up 260 yards on 50 carries (5.20 YPC) against Denver through two weeks, and they'll have to take a hot Matt Hasselbeck more seriously than the rookie. This is a prime opportunity for Chris Johnson to break out of his funk, and the coaching staff has to know it. Tennessee's run defense schedule may be the league's weakest from Week 3 on, which is a big reason why we recommended Johnson as a buy-low target after his two-game slump. ... Jared Cook remains a worthwhile TE2 stash because of his supreme athletic gifts, but he's nowhere near starting-caliber with five targets through two games. Johnson, Kenny Britt, and Nate Washington are all lapping Cook in the pass-game pecking order.

Britt's hamstring flare-up is concerning because it kept him out of camp and is now a "lingering" injury. The good news is it happened in the first practice of the week, giving Britt three days to get right. All signs still point to Britt playing against the Broncos. Denver is expected to be minus CB Champ Bailey (hamstring) and has little chance of stopping big-time No. 1 receivers without him. A.J. Green lit up Denver for 10 catches, 124 yards, and a touchdown in Week 2. ... Washington has clearly been Tennessee's No. 2 passing-game option with 18 targets in two games. You could do worse in a WR3 spot. Washington just offers scant upside. ... Hasselbeck is engineering an explosive passing offense with a 67.1 completion rate and 8.17 YPA so far. He's a solid QB2.

With DEs Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones healthy, the Titans are quietly putting together a stout pass defense. Through two games, Tennessee has limited opposing quarterbacks to 32-of-56 (57.1%) passing for 372 yards (6.64 YPA), one touchdown, and two interceptions. Luke McCown posed no threat in the opener, but formidable foe Joe Flacco accounted for both picks. Cortland Finnegan shut down Anquan Boldin in the slot last week, and the pass rush took off. The 18th-ranked fantasy passer so far, Kyle Orton is a two-QB league option only. ... Eric Decker was a hot Week 3 waiver pickup, but it's a wait-and-see game for him. Decker's Week 2 stat line (5-113-2) was inflated by No. 1 receiver Brandon Lloyd's (groin) absence and Eddie Royal's in-game injury. With Tim Tebow forced to play the slot, Decker had zero competition for targets. He's more of a low-end WR3 play, particularly because Decker is likely to see plenty of the physical Finnegan.

Lloyd is expected back, but he too is a dicey option. He's coming off a troublesome groin injury that resulted in a last-minute Week 2 scratch, is facing a pass defense playing at a high level, and now has an emerging Decker to contend with for targets in a run-first offense. Lloyd is a better Week 3 fantasy bet than Decker, but not by a ton. ... Knowshon Moreno was limited in practice all week and is considered questionable to play against the Titans. While Willis McGahee turned in a productive fantasy game in Week 2, he's still averaging a paltry 3.25 yards per carry on the year. If you're hoping to use McGahee -- and I'd encourage you not to -- you'll need to check back for Sunday morning's inactives list. Neither will be a worthwhile fantasy starter if Moreno suits up.

Score Prediction: Titans 24, Broncos 13

Jacksonville @ Carolina

It's a passing offense. The most informed football watchers envisioned a smash-mouth, run-heavy attack after the Panthers made DeAngelo Williams the NFL's (then-) highest paid veteran running back in late July, before naming raw rookie Cam Newton their Week 1 quarterback a month later. Instead, Newton has reeled off 83 pass attempts in two games, 46 (55.4%) of them coming when the game was either tied or Carolina had the lead. A Norv Turner disciple, OC Rob Chudzinski's scheme is aggressive and vertical in nature, and Chud showed a ton of faith in Cam by attacking Green Bay's defense with spread sets and 10 throws on Carolina's first 14 snaps in Week 2. Newton will remain turnover prone -- he currently leads the NFL in interceptions (4) -- but he's going to rack up fantasy points. Newton's running stats (he's already got 71 rushing yards and two touchdowns) will keep him consistent even in down weeks as a passer. So far, Newton ranks second to only Tom Brady in fantasy scoring among QBs. You're late to the dance if you still think he's not a QB1, and the Jags may present Newton's most favorable matchup all year.

While Cam has 83 pass attempts, Jonathan Stewart and Williams have combined for 30 carries. The Panthers employ an even rotation, assigning no roles and using both backs on third downs and in the red zone, depending only on whose series it is at a given time. It will make big fantasy performances tough to predict, and the Jaguars' strength so far is run defense. After revamping their front seven this summer, Jacksonville has held the Jets and Titans to a combined 3.20 YPC, ranking fourth in the NFL against the run. ... Carolina also seems to envision its tight ends as interchangeable. You saw it last week with Jeremy Shockey (3-56) outproducing Greg Olsen (1-34), as the latter blocked more. Olsen is a better fantasy bet because of his superior athleticism, but this kind of usage hurts consistency. It's notable that the Jags gave up nine catches for 111 yards and a TD to Jets tight ends in Week 2. Jacksonville's zone defense is susceptible over the middle. ... Steve Smith leads the NFL in receiving yards -- by 63. Start him until he cools off, but don't bet he will. ... Brandon LaFell has emerged as a nice possession complement to Smith's deep threat, but will be tough to count on as long as he's playing behind Legedu Naanee. LaFell has played 52.0% of the snaps through two games. Naanee (90.8%) started over him last week.

The inept Jaguars offense we all expected showed up in Week 2. Jacksonville didn't enter the red zone once against the Jets and made an early fourth-quarter quarterback change. I had a hard time getting excited about Mike Thomas during fantasy draft season because this offense projects to struggle mightily in the pass game. Having failed to top 55 yards in both of his first two games, Thomas now faces a Panthers defense shutting down opposing No. 1 receivers. Neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Greg Jennings has posted more than 62 yards or three receptions against Carolina, and Jennings got his Week 2 touchdown against nickel safety Jordan Pugh. Expect a rejuvenated Chris Gamble to be on Thomas for the majority of this one. ... The insertion of Blaine Gabbert bodes poorly for Marcedes Lewis. The Jaguars are likely to go run-heavy and use Lewis as a blocker in order to keep their young franchise quarterback healthy. Lewis is a very low-end TE2.

The Jags need to enter Week 3 planning to control this game on the ground, keeping Newton off the field with heavy doses of Maurice Jones-Drew. Carolina is surrendering 4.85 yards per rushing attempt and has lost two starting linebackers in as many weeks after WLB Thomas Davis re-tore his right ACL against Green Bay. A healthy Jones-Drew touched up the Jets for 107 total yards in Week 2, and is now sitting on a rock-solid 4.40 YPC average. Despite his "play count," MJD hasn't seen fewer than 22 touches in either of Jacksonville's first two games, and Deji Karim has continued to struggle mightily (2.40 YPC on 20 rushes). A 30-touch workload should be in order for the Jaguars' feature back. It's time for the coaching staff to remove Jones-Drew's restrictions.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Jaguars 17

Detroit @ Minnesota

Reconfirming himself as one of the league's elite playmakers, Calvin Johnson fought off a double-team filled Week 2 to haul in two TDs and post 14.9 standard league fantasy points against a Chiefs defense that let the rest of the Lions' roster beat them. Fallouts included 93 yards on seven receptions for Nate Burleson, 123 yards and two scores for Jahvid Best, and rookie Titus Young's breakout game (5-89). Folks chalking up Detroit's hot start to fluke are fooling themselves. There aren't four NFL teams with better skill player talent, and the O-Line hasn't allowed a single sack. ... The Vikings get back DT Kevin Williams from suspension in Week 3, so look for the Lions to spray the ball to the exterior of Minnesota's defense. Best could have a very big PPR game. On the year, he's already caught 10 passes for 108 yards while averaging 23.5 touches per week. Even in standard, non-PPR scoring, Best is currently the No. 7 overall fantasy running back.

Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield covers the slot when opponents go to three-wide, so he'll be on Burleson for a good portion of this one. Burleson remains a respectable weekly WR3, but you can use his matchup to break ties. ... Brandon Pettigrew hasn't been productive and missed a bunch of practice time with a shoulder injury. Feel free to bail on him now. ... Tony Scheffler has only two catches through two weeks, but they've both gone for touchdowns. His playing style is a better fit for Matthew Stafford's vertical arm than the plodding Pettigrew. If Pettigrew is inactive for Week 3, consider Scheffler a viable fall-back option. He'd get more snaps and targets. ... Stafford ranks fourth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, and the Lions will have to throw to move the offense Sunday. It's a formula for statistical success. You're witnessing the emergence of a star.

The Lions aren't the pushover run defense of yesteryears, but they'll still struggle to contain an on-fire Adrian Peterson. All Day ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing and fifth in yards per carry among backs with at least 30 attempts. Detroit is permitting 4.60 YPC, so it's not as if they're suddenly the Steelers. ... The Vikings' pass game is hands-off in fantasy leagues, aside from WR3 option Percy Harvin. I call Harvin only an "option" because he's a poor bet to score without a role in red-zone packages, and played a perturbing 44.1% of Minnesota's offensive snaps last week. Vikings fans need to be concerned about their team's coaching staff. OC Bill Musgrave is shooting himself in the foot. ... Molasses Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian can't beat single coverage. They're non-factors both in real life and fantasy. ... Donovan McNabb has lost a large chunk of his mobility going on age 35, which was always a recipe for disaster behind an O-Line that can't pass protect.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 14

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Michael Vick is expected to start against the Giants, but owners should pay attention into Sunday morning. As Jay Cutler showed in Week 8 last season, concussed quarterbacks can be prone to late-week setbacks. The Eagles may want to limit Vick's drop backs regardless, and certainly will if second-year QB Mike Kafka draws the start. ... LeSean McCoy leads all backs in fantasy points through two weeks. He's behind only Tom Brady overall. In four career meetings with an annually stout Giants defense, McCoy averages 6.33 yards a carry. We should've ranked Shady higher before the year, because he's headed for career bests in carries, total yards, and fantasy scoring as a true every-week starter. ... Brent Celek is the No. 30 fantasy tight end with five catches for 56 yards through two weeks. He's waiver material. ... Consider Jeremy Maclin a locked-and-loaded WR2 the rest of the way. He proved his separation skills in Week 2 with 13 catches for 171 yards and two TDs against Atlanta, and the Eagles used Maclin on bubble screens when Kafka came in. Vick's absence would hurt DeSean Jackson, but not necessarily Maclin, and definitely not McCoy.

More Maclin pluses: After Kafka's insertion, six of his nine attempts were intended for Maclin, with five complete for 63 yards. (Kafka did not target D-Jax.) From Vick, Maclin caught eight passes for 108 yards and both touchdowns. Maclin also has the Eagles' best receiver matchup. He runs a good majority of his routes down the left sideline, facing off with Giants RCB Aaron Ross. Ross was benched mid-game last Monday after getting torched by Danario Alexander. ... Jackson will be good to go if Vick starts, but would be a riskier option than usual if Kafka got the nod. The downgrade in arm strength is dramatic, and the Eagles' staff would likely "protect" Kafka with continued shorter throws and check downs. Jackson is the team's deep threat. ... Jason Avant has played the most snaps so far, but the Eagles' slot receiver job is headed for a timeshare with Steve Smith getting healthier. Smith's snap count jumped from five in Week 1 to 19 in Week 2.

The Giants reverted to a ground-and-pound offensive approach in Week 2, finishing with a 38:30 run-to-pass ratio. They'll need it to stay that way this week. Not only does the matchup dictate it, the G-Men are perilously thin at wide receiver. Mario Manningham appears doubtful with a concussion, third wideout Domenik Hixon has a torn ACL, Brandon Stokley is still picking up the offense, and Victor Cruz has struggled since the 2010 preseason. ... In fantasy leagues, however, the New York backfield has developed into a guessing game. The Giants use Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw interchangeably on early downs, with Jacobs possessing the edge for red-zone work. Bradshaw gets more touches because he is utilized in the pass game. Jacobs and Bradshaw are both low-end RB2/flex options, but it's a tossup as to whom will outproduce whom in any given week. Neither has played particularly well, with both backs under 3.8 yards per carry.

The Eagles' pass defense is as advertised, ranking fifth in the NFL and allowing just three completions of 20-plus yards on 63 pass attempts against. It's bad news for Eli Manning, who's already short-handed at receiver and scuffling. Eli's Week 2 box score (two TDs, 63.3% completions) doesn't look bad, but game watchers know he struggled to complete easy throws down the seams and benefited greatly from circus catches made by Hixon and Hakeem Nicks deep downfield. Not quite to the extent of his brother, but Manning is going to be a big fantasy disappointment this season. Long overrated, his many deficiencies are being exposed. ... Nicks will face off with Nnamdi Asomugha for most of this game because he plays the majority of his snaps against RCBs. Nicks should be in fantasy lineups, but expectations need to be tempered. Per Pro Football Focus, Asomugha has allowed just 2-of-6 pass targets to be complete against him for 45 yards. With an interception, Asomugha is holding opposing passers to a miniscule 21.5 QB rating.

Score Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 20

San Francisco @ Cincinnati

The Niners-Bungles 40.5-point over-under is the lowest of all early games, making this a matchup to avoid where possible. ... The 49ers lead the NFL in run defense, both in terms of yards allowed per game and yards per carry against (2.47). For a team as run-oriented as the Bengals fancy themselves, it creates a mismatch. Avoid Cedric Benson. ... A stonewalled Benson may force Andy Dalton to drop back frequently on Sunday. In fairness, OC Jay Gruden did call 41 pass plays in Week 2, showing confidence in his rookie quarterback against a Denver defense selling out to stop the run. Dalton came through with 332 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. This is good news for A.J. Green, who likewise exploded for a 10-124-1 line. And there isn't an imposing member of the 49ers' secondary. Consider Green a WR3 with some upside. ... Jerome Simpson also topped 100 yards, but has been held out of practice this week after police discovered 8.5 pounds of marijuana in Simpson's home. Early indications are that Simpson won't play Sunday.

Jermaine Gresham regressed to a 2-8-0 line in Week 2 after Browns CB Joe Haden's bottling up of Green allowed Gresham to go for 6-58-1 on Opening Day. Gresham is a traditional in-line tight end and can get stuck blocking for long stretches. He's more much more TE2 than possible top-12 tight end. I jumped the gun last week. ... Benson has been suspended three games by the NFL, though he'll play Sunday. Fantasy owners need to pick up Bernard Scott wherever available. A repeat offender of the Personal Conduct Policy, Benson's appeal will be heard by commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday. If the suspension stands, Scott will be the Bengals' starting tailback against the Bills, Jaguars, and Colts in Weeks 4-6. Cincinnati has a Week 7 bye. If Scott puts good things on tape during that evaluation period, he could earn a very big role down the stretch.

Defenses are stacking the box against Frank Gore, but he's stayed afloat in fantasy terms with 48 touches in two games. While his weekly workloads project to remain large, there are reasons for worry. The 49ers' line can't open holes, and the passing game won't help create lanes without a downfield threat. Gore has also played an astonishing 109-of-116 (94.0%) of the team's offensive snaps. Taking so much pounding on a play-to-play basis bodes poorly for his chances of holding up. Sell Gore after a big game. ... It's fair to be concerned about Vernon Davis' slow start, but this matchup sets up well for last year's No. 3 fantasy tight end. The Bengals lack a big-time edge rusher to keep Davis blocking like he did DeMarcus Ware last week, and Cincinnati flashed vulnerability to tight ends with six catches, 80 yards, and two TDs served up to Evan Moore and Ben Watson in the opener. With Braylon Edwards (knee) sidelined for at least three weeks, the Niners will have to lean more heavily on their best pass catcher. ... Avoid Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. Crabtree (foot) is a poor bet to make it four quarters, and he'll likely rotate with Ted Ginn. Morgan is the 49ers wideout to use if you drink before making last-minute lineup decisions.

Score Prediction: 49ers 17, Bengals 14

Houston @ New Orleans

This game has Week 3's second highest over-under. Start your Texans and Saints. ... It'll get old trying to make weekly excuses for Mark Ingram's pedestrian production if he continues to post empty 40-50 yard games. But touchdowns will come if the Saints keep using him like they have. Through two weeks, Ingram leads New Orleans with nine red-zone touches to Darren Sproles' six and Pierre Thomas' one. Sproles scored on a 12-yard catch in Week 2, but clearly stepped out at the one-yard line. (The play somehow avoided review.) It's a game of inches, and the TD would've been Ingram's if the refs got it right. Ingram lost a fourth-quarter fumble in the win over Chicago, but the Saints confirmed their confidence in the rookie by putting him right back in for clock-killing mode. The coaching staff desperately wants Ingram to succeed. In a projected shootout, it's hard to imagine sitting him if you have a flex spot. ... Not getting the rock in scoring position, Thomas is a poor bet for TDs. He's averaging 10 touches for 61.5 yards a game and is better in real life than fantasy. ... The Saints pass enough to keep Sproles as a consistent PPR contributor. He's doing nothing on the ground (24 yards), but already has 15 catches in two games as a Saint.

Depending on your scoring system, Drew Brees is either the No. 3 or 4 fantasy QB through two weeks. (Tom Brady and Cam Newton are 1-2, and Matthew Stafford is in the mix.) Be sure to start Brees with Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph coming off an ankle sprain. ... Houston ranks No. 1 against the pass, but has faced Kerry Collins and Chad Henne. This is a prime opportunity for Jimmy Graham's breakout game. Greg Cosell of NFL Films expects Graham to be the primary beneficiary of Marques Colston's fractured collarbone. ... Lance Moore will reappear with a bang eventually, but he's hard to use on 32.8% snap counts with one catch on four targets like last week. While you could do worse in a WR3 spot, ideally you'd make sure he's recovered from his lingering groin pull. ... Robert Meachem is seeing more play time than Devery Henderson, even if Henderson was more productive in Week 2. The former is a better fantasy option than the latter.

After a sluggish opener, New Orleans laid six sacks and a whopping 22 QB hurries on Jay Cutler. This is a dangerous Saints defense, and DE Will Smith's (suspension) return provides another big spark. The Texans don't want -- and can't afford -- to let Matt Schaub drop back more than 30 times. Leaning on its near-unstoppable zone-run scheme, look for Houston to feed newly anointed feature back Ben Tate early and often. Arian Foster (hamstring) will be limited at best if he plays, and Tate has emerged as an RB1 with 251 yards and a 4.66 YPC average. He's third in the NFL in rushing. ... The Texans' run-to-pass ratio on the season is 77:53, leading to more of an in-line tight end role for Owen Daniels. He's still a better bet for production than Kevin Walter, returning from a shoulder injury, and Jacoby Jones, falling down the depth chart. Daniels will be tough to sit in a high-scoring affair and favorable matchup against Saints coverage liability SS Roman Harper.

Owners need to continue to be wary of Schaub in what is no longer a passer-friendly offense, but he's a top-15 Week 3 QB play because of the projected scoring in this game. If Schaub has a big week, sell him high. ... Andre Johnson has 20 targets on 53 Texans pass attempts as Houston's lone reliable passing-game producer. Having never topped nine TD catches in a season, Johnson is on his way to a career high with touchdowns in each of the first two weeks. And he has a plus matchup on Sunday. The Saints have kept Patrick Robinson as their starting right corner, and he's been burned for a 7-113-1 line on 10 targets so far, according to Pro Football Focus. Johnson typically lines up across from RCBs. ... The Foster situation is a tough one in fantasy leagues. He's not a recommended buy-low target after repeated setbacks, and Tate is running away with the job. Unless Foster owners can find a trade partner, they're forced to sit tight and hope for an eventual full recovery. They may also need a Tate injury at that point.

Score Prediction: Saints 34, Texans 28

Miami @ Cleveland

Peyton Hillis racked up 94 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against the Colts, which was a big help to fantasy owners. But there are reasons to believe it's time to sell. Hillis managed 3.48 yards per carry against the NFL's worst run defense, a clip that falls to 2.69 if you exclude Hillis' wide-open 27-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Dating back to Week 14 of 2010, Hillis' YPC average is a less-than-pedestrian 3.21, and he's at 3.67 since Week 10. Hillis' monster workload is valuable in fantasy, but his run style is likely to lead to a slow finish, and his down-to-down effectiveness is already waning. Hillis' value won't get higher after a 24-point fantasy game. ... Rookie Greg Little's breakout week is coming. Through two games, Little leads all Cleveland receivers in snaps played (105 -- 72.9%), and Brian Robiskie's role is decreasing rapidly. Coach Pat Shurmur was asked by reporters this week whether Robiskie is a "real receiver," as opposed to a blocking wideout because he's yet to catch a pass. Little has eight targets, Robiskie two.

Evan Moore did well to catch his lone target for a 16-yard touchdown in Week 2, but he isn't much of a fantasy option after playing nine snaps. Moore played 13 snaps in the opener. ... Ben Watson sees more field time than Moore because he can block, but he's yet to exceed 45 yards. You can do better. ... Mohamed Massaquoi and Joshua Cribbs do more to hurt the values of each other, Robiskie, and Moore than become stand-alone options. They're all fantasy reserves at best. ... Colt McCoy improved his completion rate and yards-per-attempt average against Indy, but only after the Browns scaled back their aggressiveness, leaning heavily on the run. In ten career starts, McCoy has a 9:10 TD-to-INT ratio. He's not going to be even a mid-range QB2 anytime soon.

Brandon Marshall is in a three-way tie for the league lead in targets through two weeks, matching Carolina's Steve Smith and Dallas' Miles Austin. Marshall plays all three receiver positions, so he'll avoid stay-at-home LCB Joe Haden plenty. ... The Browns held slot receivers Austin Collie and Jordan Shipley to a combined four catches for 23 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Sheer playing time has something to do with it, but Dolphins slot man Davone Bess is an uninspiring option, anyhow. ... Chad Henne crashed back to earth after his big opener last Sunday, experiencing marked drops in completion rate (40.0), yardage (170), YPA (5.67), and touchdowns (1). With rookie Daniel Thomas emerging as a viable down-to-down inside run threat, the Dolphins' offense won't have to lean as heavily on the pass as it appeared in Week 1. Henne has resumed low-end QB2 status.

Speaking of Thomas, the Miami Herald reported in late July that the coaching staff's plan entering camp was to make the rookie a "workhorse," with Reggie Bush getting 10-15 touches a game. The idea was put on hold when Thomas struggled in preseason, then suffered a hamstring injury that sidelined him for Week 1. The Dolphins spent August and early September trying to drill into Thomas' head that he must run with more purpose inside the tackles in order to see rookie-year playing time. The light flipped on for Thomas in Week 2. He racked up 18 carries to triple Bush's usage, gaining six-plus yards on nine plays with five gains of double-digit yardage. The coaching staff's initial plan is coming full circle, with Thomas operating as the lead back in the committee. Especially promising for Thomas' long-term value is the Dolphins' confidence in his pass protection. He was left in for nine blitz-pickup opportunities last Sunday and executed on each, per Pro Football Focus. He'll be an every-down back if Bush gets injured. ... Thomas' maturation has made Bush's fantasy value very dicey. He's likely to revert to a "satellite back" role in what now projects as a more balanced offense. You can't count on more than 12 touches.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 20, Browns 17

4:05PM ET Games

NY Jets @ Oakland

Shonn Greene owners can point to Buffalo's 217 yards rushing against Oakland in Week 2 in an effort to feign confidence in their early-round fantasy pick, but Greene's long-range outlook isn't pretty. Nick Mangold is the NFL's best center, and he's out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain. His backup is undrafted rookie Colin Baxter. Even before Mangold's loss, a declining, ultimately overrated Jets line opened up enough holes for their backs to gain 113 yards on 43 runs in Weeks 1-2, for a pathetic average of 2.63. This isn't nearly the rushing offense it once was, and Greene isn't talented enough to make up for it. Don't be surprised if the Jets start mixing in Bilal Powell. ... LaDainian Tomlinson has 18 touches and is averaging 2.18 YPC through two games. He's not a fantasy option. ... Dustin Keller is the real deal as the Jets' only pass catcher capable of getting open aside from Santonio Holmes. Playing 79.5% of the offensive snaps so far, Keller is off to an incredibly efficient start with 11 catches on 14 targets, going for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer will continue to call more pass plays for Keller if he keeps it up.

If the Jets can't kick start their run game, they'll have to strongly consider throwing the ball more. It would bode well for Holmes. The Nnamdi Asomugha-less Raiders have been susceptible to opposing No. 1 wide receivers early, allowing Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd to combine for 14 catches, 185 yards, and a score in their first two games. Despite a groin injury in Week 2, Holmes played 48-of-62 snaps (77.4%). And he's healthier now. ... Plaxico Burress doesn't get separation at age 34, and it showed up last week when he went catch-less against the Jaguars. Plax is never a bad bet for a red-zone score, but owners should aim higher. ... Mark Sanchez is the 15th-ranked fantasy quarterback after two games. The Raiders rank 21st against the pass after facing the Broncos and Bills, so consider Sanchez a reasonable two-QB league option.

Darren McFadden ranks third in the NFL in touches through two weeks, behind only Peyton Hillis and Ben Tate. The Jets present a difficult run defense matchup on paper, but sprung some leaks in last week's win over the Jags, allowing Maurice Jones-Drew to average 4.89 yards per rushing attempt. McFadden is better than Jones-Drew and gets the ball more in the passing game. As the No. 3 fantasy back so far and his offense's centerpiece, DMC is an every-week starter, regardless of opponent. ... Jason Campbell has a pretty impossible Week 3 matchup, but he's worth grabbing as a QB2 for the future. In his last 11 games, Campbell has a 14:5 TD-to-INT ratio. He can be a passable option when bye weeks hit. ... Kevin Boss (knee), Darrius Heyward-Bey (knee), Jacoby Ford (hamstring), and Louis Murphy (sports hernia) are all either banged up or will be inactive. Explosive rookie Denarius Moore is set up to lead Oakland in targets again this week, but will he be blanked by Darrelle Revis? The Jets certainly are aware of Moore. "We really liked him (before the draft)," coach Rex Ryan told reporters this week. "We had him in for a visit. .... I tell you what, he had a huge game this past week, with about 150 yards receiving and a reverse for 25 yards. He really did a nice job. That catch he made in double coverage against Buffalo was big time."

Score Prediction: Raiders 17, Jets 13

Kansas City @ San Diego

The Chargers usually find a way to make it more interesting, but on paper this game reeks of mismatch. A San Diego passing game averaging 351 yards and completing 70.5 percent of its attempts plays host to a K.C. defense that has allowed a league-high eight touchdown passes and generated a league-low one sack. Without SS Eric Berry, the lifeless Chiefs have made Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matthew Stafford look like All-Pros. (In fairness, Stafford probably is.) Philip Rivers will light them up. ... Keep an eye on Antonio Gates' troublesome foot leading up to game time. He's combined for 194 yards and three touchdowns on 12 catches in his last two meetings with the Chiefs, but there is speculation in San Diego that Gates may have to take a week off. The Chargers confirmed their concern by holding Gates out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

The winds are blowing toward Ryan Mathews' breakout week, and not just because he'll rack up touches after San Diego takes an early lead. Mathews is involved in a backfield committee, and rotation partner Mike Tolbert is coming off both a toe injury and terrible game. Tolbert was stuffed cold after stutter-stepping at the Patriots' one-yard line on fourth-and-goal last Sunday, then lost a back-breaking fourth-quarter fumble that turned the tide of a one-possession game. Meanwhile, Mathews' role has increased steadily on passing downs, and he scored a red-zone touchdown in Week 2. He's also averaging 4.54 YPC to Tolbert's 2.14. Mathews is giving the coaches reasons to play him more, while Tolbert is stumbling. I'd struggle to consider Mathews any lower than a top-12 running back play this week. ... After a slow opener, the Chargers made it a point to get Vincent Jackson the rock by moving him to the slot. He responded with a 10-172-2 line against New England. Jackson will capitalize with monster statistics if Gates' foot remains problematic.

It's fair to wonder if the Chiefs have already called it a season. They don't have a prayer. The K.C. coaching staff continues to show zero faith in Matt Cassel, somehow managing a 27:23 run-to-pass ratio in Week 2, despite trailing for all but four minutes in a 48-3 blowout loss to Detroit. They benched Cassel for Tyler Palko in the fourth quarter, and ran the ball three times with a punt on their final four plays. "The season will not be canceled, as far as I know," coach Todd Haley said after the game. Could've fooled us. ... With Jamaal Charles out for the season, the Chiefs' lone offensive threat is Dwayne Bowe. Defensive coordinators are aware of this and will begin zeroing Bowe out of Kansas City's offense with double and triple teams. Bowe is not a good buy low. The Chargers have held Bowe to 13 yards or fewer in each of their last three meetings. Sit 'em.

The Chiefs are going to play from behind a lot this season. They have no pass or running game to speak of, and the defense has fallen apart both up front and in the secondary. While the Kansas City backfield won't produce a consistent fantasy scorer, Dexter McCluster has the best chance. A Sprolesian talent at 5'8/170, McCluster will be the Chiefs' passing-down back, and they'll have a lot of passing downs. Purely in terms of snaps, McCluster will be the lead back more often than not. He's worth adding in PPR leagues to see what happens. ... Thomas Jones was considered a hot Week 3 waiver wire pickup in some fantasy circles, but he won't get any support in this column. Jones just can't play anymore. His yards-per-carry average in his last 12 games is 2.85. In Jones' last seven, he's at 2.45. And he exits the field whenever the Chiefs throw the ball.

Score Prediction: Chargers 38, Chiefs 3

Baltimore @ St. Louis

The Rams made a slew of offseason front-seven additions, swapping out their nose tackle and two starting linebackers. It hasn't worked. Through two games, St. Louis ranks dead last in run defense and is surrendering 5.07 yards per carry. The Rams have only given up one run of longer than 20 yards, so offenses are grinding it out against them with success. Ray Rice needs to be the focal point of OC Cam Cameron's Week 3 game plan. On the season, Rice has three touchdowns and is averaging 5.98 yards per touch. There isn't a better running back start in the league this week. ... Lee Evans (ankle) is not expected to play Sunday, leaving Anquan Boldin as a legit candidate for 10-12 targets. Boldin is a recommended WR2. ... The Ravens will use some combination of rookies Torrey Smith, Tandon Doss, and undrafted LaQuan Williams to replace Evans. Avoid.

At first glance, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta would appear to be canceling each other out for fantasy purposes. But there is a clear leader in the clubhouse. Dickson has a 96.7 percent snap rate to Pitta's 31.1 percent, and six more targets through two games. Dickson qualifies you're looking for a sleeper Week 3 tight end, along with Tony Scheffler if Brandon Pettigrew (shoulder) sits. ... We've mentioned it before, and it's still true: Joe Flacco won't break out as a legitimate fantasy starter until Cameron opens up the offense. Through two weeks, the Ravens rank their usual 25th in pass attempts. I'm not going to argue with Flacco's matchup, but he's a low-end QB1 at best.

Greg Salas blew a golden opportunity to run with St. Louis' slot receiver job last Monday, dropping two passes and fumbling a punt. Danny Amendola (elbow) probably won't return in Week 3, but Salas may now appear on the inactives list. He couldn't have been worse. ... Danario Alexander is the Rams' only receiver capable of separating downfield, but diminutive snap counts (he played 16 downs in Week 2) kill his fantasy reliability. We saw this last year when Alexander "broke out" for 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 6, then caught one ball for six yards in Week 7, playing 12 snaps. Alexander has a five-times surgically repaired left knee, and the Rams are well aware of it. He can't hold up on full workloads and is a major roll of the dice as a WR3. ... If only Brandon Gibson could combine his play time and knees with Alexander's skill set. Gibson can't get open.

Mike Sims-Walker leads the Rams in targets through two weeks. He's worth a WR3 start against a Baltimore pass defense serving up huge games to versatile, No. 1 receivers who play all over the field (Mike Wallace, 8-107 and Kenny Britt, 9-135-1). That isn't to say MSW has the talent of a Wallace or Britt, but he's used similarly and saw his snap percentage leap from 60.3% in the opener to 92.8% in Week 2. He's clearly the biggest beneficiary of Amendola's absence and a borderline every-week WR3. ... Sam Bradford has one touchdown and a 51.3% completion rate through two games. Bradford should pick it up later in the year after he grasps new OC Josh McDaniels' offense more fully, and the schedule weakens. He's worth hanging onto as a QB2 with more upside than the first two games indicate, but is nowhere near start-able. ... Steven Jackson has a lingering quad injury and Cadillac Williams a bum hamstring. Baltimore ranks fourth in the NFL in run defense, having held Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson to a combined 98 yards on 36 carries (2.72 YPC) without a touchdown. Avoid the Rams' backfield entirely this week.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Rams 17

4:15PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Chicago

The Bears' passing offense is much more the unit that showed up at New Orleans than the Week 1 version. Jay Cutler already leads the NFL with 11 sacks taken, and it's only going to get worse with RT Gabe Carimi (knee) out indefinitely. All-Pro OLB Clay Matthews happens to play over the opposing right tackle. Cutler's stats in his last four meetings with Green Bay: 67-of-125 (53.6%) for 734 yards (5.87 YPA), 3:9 TDs to INTs. Steer clear. ... The Bears won't get anything going with outside receivers Johnny Knox, Roy Williams, and Devin Hester if they can't keep Cutler upright. Cutler has 77 attempts through two games, and just 14 have been complete to the above trio. None has topped 60 yards in a week. Look elsewhere. ... Slot receiver Earl Bennett has a badly bruised torso and 20 yards through two games. Move along. ... Matt Forte has led Chicago in receiving both weeks, averaging 20.5 touches for 162 total yards a game. The Packers have also had trouble containing him recently; Forte's last two games against Green Bay netted 311 yards.

The Packers were involved in a Week 1 shootout and fell behind early last week, so they haven't yet experienced an opportunity to lean on the run. They'll execute when they do. RT Bryan Bulaga has emerged as a true mauler, and his partner on the right side RG Josh Sitton was already a dominant run-blocking force. Per Pro Football Focus, Green Bay cleared enough Week 2 lanes to give James Starks and Ryan Grant a 4.3 YPC average before they even felt contact. Starks continues to operate as the lead back, playing 84 snaps with 24 touches to Grant's 35 and 19, respectively. You may want to avoid the situation against a Chicago run defense that's better than its 5.30 YPC allowed indicates, but Starks is going to break out one of these weeks, and it will happen before midseason. He's a recommended trade target. ... In Jermichael Finley's last meeting with Chicago, he racked up nine catches for 115 yards. Finley is the ideal zone-busting tight end against a Cover 2, and it can't help the Bears' chances that they have injuries at safety.

Greg Jennings will likely struggle for deep bombs Sunday, but he's either caught a touchdown or cleared 97 yards in each of his last three matchups with the Bears. He needs to be in lineups as a WR2. ... Jordy Nelson's historical stats aren't great against Chicago, but on paper he has a better matchup than Jennings. While Green Bay's No. 1 receiver will face off with physical RCB Charles Tillman, Nelson will play most of his snaps against smallish LCB Tim Jennings (5'8/185). Nelson has a seven-inch and 32-pound size advantage. ... Donald Driver's snap rate fell from 68.7% in the opener to 50% in Week 2, while Randall Cobb and James Jones' both rose. The Packers' pass catchers behind Jennings, Finley, and Nelson have created a fantasy situation to avoid. ... The Bears have done an excellent job of bottling up Aaron Rodgers over the years, holding him to a 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio in their last five meetings. Just once in those games has Rodgers exceeded 244 passing yards. It's not crazy to consider starting Cam Newton over Rodgers this week.

Score Prediction: Packers 17, Bears 10

Arizona @ Seattle

Larry Fitzgerald plays most of his snaps across from right cornerbacks, and Brandon Browner is Seattle's RCB. According to Pro Football Focus, Browner allowed an incredible 10-of-10 passes thrown his way to be complete last week, for 194 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks will have to come up with an awfully bright idea to keep Fitz in check. Most likely, he'll burn them for his second straight monster week. ... I mentioned it in Week 2 Matchups: Seattle fields a legitimately run-tough defense with big uglies Alan Branch (6'6/325) and Red Bryant (6'4/323) clogging up holes. The Seahawks held Rashard Mendenhall and Frank Gore to 125 yards on 41 carries (3.05 YPC) in their first two games, and Beanie Wells is now coming off an in-practice hamstring injury. Never known for playing well hurt, Wells drops all the way to risky flex option after having the look of an RB1 in the first two games. Dead-legged Chester Taylor wouldn't be a good fall-back plan.

Kevin Kolb ranks 12th among fantasy QBs through two games, playing far more formidably than he did last year or in his first preseason as a Cardinal. The possible lack of a run game could translate to more attempts for Kolb, and he's likely to have success picking apart the Fitz-Browner matchup. Consider Kolb an excellent two-QB league play and a quietly viable QB1 if you're streaming. ... Early Doucet confirmed that his 100-plus yard Week 1 game was a fluke by turning in a 20-yard clunker in Week 2. With Doucet earning only 45.9% of the Cardinals' offense snaps and Andre Roberts not producing, Fitzgerald is the team's only fantasy-relevant pass catcher.

Charlie Whitehurst isn't necessarily better, but you have to wonder if the Seahawks are seriously tanking the season for Andrew Luck if they stick with Tarvaris Jackson. In T-Jack's first two starts, the NFL.com play by play has described 60 of his 66 attempts as "pass short" (90.9%). Jackson is 0-for-6 on throws characterized as "deep," with one interception and another "deep" pass that led to a Ben Obomanu injury. Jackson has two completions for gains of longer than 13 yards. Sidney Rice won't save this passing offense. ... Marshawn Lynch has 44 yards on 19 carries through two games, "good" for a 2.31 average. Even as poor as Arizona's run defense is, it's hard to imagine ever using Lynch in a fantasy league. In his last 12 regular season games with Seattle, Lynch has 143 carries for 484 yards (3.38 average). Be sure to trade Lynch if he does anything in this game. The Seahawks' offensive line remains in shambles with LG Robert Gallery shelved 4-6 weeks after groin surgery, and there's simply no cohesiveness in position coach Tom Cable's unit.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Seahawks 7

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Last week, Adrian Peterson caved in the Bucs' defense for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Tampa has served up 314 rushing yards and a 4.76 YPC clip through two games, and SLB Quincy Black has been a shell of himself because of an ankle injury. Michael Turner should run all over this team, particularly with run-blocking extraordinaire Todd McClure back from knee surgery at center. Fill-in Joe Hawley struggled mightily in the first two games. Still showing plenty of short-area burst, Turner leads the league with a 6.90 yards-per-carry average. You may want to consider selling Turner high after this one. ... Roddy White is likely to draw Bucs CB Aqib Talib in man coverage, but White has maintained a fair amount of effectiveness versus Talib. His last four stat lines against the Bucs: 5-57-1, 6-66-1, 4-49, 7-74. ... A run-heavy game plan is likely on Atlanta's side, but Julio Jones is close to busting out of his shell. He had 71 yards in the opener before meeting Nnamdi Asomugha for much of Week 2. Jones is averaging a solid seven targets per game with an 86.9 snap percentage. He'll be an every-week WR3 sooner rather than later.

Atlanta's improved perimeter speed has opened things up for Tony Gonzalez, who ranks fourth in fantasy points among tight ends. While this is a favorable matchup, Gonzalez will take a back seat to Jones as the Falcons' primary possession receiver in the coming weeks. Atlanta would certainly prefer its record to be better than 1-1, but early-season developments could pay off down the road. Defenses will begin rolling loaded coverage to Gonzalez, creating space for more explosive playmakers on the outside. The offense will be far more dangerous when that happens, and I'd expect it will. ... Matt Ryan is coming off a four-touchdown game against perhaps the NFC's best pass defense, and on the season is completing 64.0% of his throws. With Turner and Gonzalez hitting on all cylinders, the Falcons' play-action game will begin clicking with deep shots to White and Jones. Fantasy owners shouldn't be souring on Ryan. He's a terrific buy-low target after getting arguably the year's toughest two matchups out of the way early in the Bears and Eagles.

Josh Freeman engineered a thrilling Week 2 comeback win over the Vikings, but in the process reconfirmed that he's a better real-life than fantasy player. Despite a 17-0 first-half deficit, the Bucs stayed balanced in the final two quarters, feeding LeGarrette Blount in scoring position and finishing with only 31 pass attempts. While Atlanta's defense has looked susceptible to the pass early, it's hard to forget Freeman's 2010 stats against the Falcons: 30-of-60 passing for 370 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions in two games. He's a QB2. ... Mike Williams is coming off a one-catch gut-punch, but will square off with RCB Dunta Robinson for most of this game. According to Pro Football Focus, the overrated Robinson allowed 8-of-10 passes thrown his way to be complete for a whopping 208 yards and a touchdown in the first two weeks. Williams also had success against Robinson last year, combining for 157 yards and two TDs in two matchups.

Arrelious Benn caught a 25-yard touchdown pass in Week 2, but continues to rotate with Dezmon Briscoe. With slot receiver Preston Parker and Kellen Winslow also commanding targets, there isn't a start-able Bucs wideout behind Williams. ... The Falcons held Winslow under 35 yards in two games last year. Losing explosiveness, Winslow will need a touchdown for a big fantasy day. I'd bet you can find better options. ... The Bucs aren't as talented as the Falcons, but should keep this one close. It would bode well for Blount, who got a big vote of confidence when the Bucs' coaching staff didn't abandon the run following the aforementioned deficit. Blount is going to rack up touchdowns this season when Tampa Bay sticks with its game plan.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Bucs 21

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

The Steelers' run game has sputtered to open the season, with Rashard Mendenhall managing a 3.58 YPC average in difficult matchups with Baltimore and Seattle. OC Bruce Arians will likely look to jump start the ground game against the NFL's weakest run defense. It's just what playcallers do when they face the Colts. Through two games, no team has had more rushing attempts against, and only three clubs have allowed more yards rushing per game. Box-score checkers need not worry about Isaac Redman making the Pittsburgh backfield a true committee. Redman received 10 Week 2 carries, but five came in fourth-quarter garbage time, and he was mixed in sparingly otherwise. Redman's 20-yard touchdown run came out of a shotgun formation with a huge hole. It is admittedly conceivable that Redman will get another healthy dose of touches if this game gets out of hand. The Steelers likely will emphasize the run, and should have a lead most of the way.

Need more proof that Mike Wallace isn't just a deep threat? Through two weeks, "60 Minutes" leads the league in first-down catches (14) and all wideouts in receptions. Wallace's long speed scares the bejeezus out of defenses, so he's ripping them up with shorter routes against off-man and zone coverage. More diverse routes will work better against the Colts' Cover 2 than a bunch of flies and goes. ... Antonio Brown took something of a step forward after his nightmarish opener with four catches and 67 yards on six Week 2 targets, although he did most of it late with Pittsburgh way out in front of Seattle. When the game was still in doubt, Sanders played ahead of Brown. Neither is a fantasy option against the Colts. ... Hines Ward ranks 56th in fantasy points among receivers. He's a WR5 until Pittsburgh's passing game picks it up. ... Ben Roethlisberger is only a QB2 with the Steelers likely to lean heavily on the run Sunday night. With a porous offensive line, Pittsburgh can't afford to let Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis take over this game.

The Colts' offensive production has shriveled to the point where I can keep this to one paragraph. The bottom line is that you don't want to start any of the Indianapolis skill players this week. ... The Colts are expected to be without RG Ryan Diem (high ankle sprain) against one of the league's stoutest run defenses. Joseph Addai and Delone Carter are desperation flex plays. ... Reggie Wayne should've been sold high by fantasy owners after Week 1. His production will continue to shrink in a matchup with Steelers RCB Ike Taylor. Wayne is at WR3 at best. ... Dallas Clark actually ran routes on more plays than he blocked in Week 2, but that could change quickly with LaMarr Woodley coming to town. Clark is a weak fantasy starter. ... Austin Collie's Week 2 game was a perfect example of the marked efficiency drop Indianapolis' offense is experiencing. He saw 10 targets, catching three for 24 yards. Drop Collie for someone with more upside. ... Pierre Garcon is an NFL backup-caliber player. I don't care what kind of stats he put up with Peyton Manning. With six catches for 67 scoreless yards through two games, Garcon can be dropped.

Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Colts 6

Monday Night Football

Washington @ Dallas

There are too many factors working against Felix Jones for confident Week 3 fantasy use. With Jones coming off a dislocated shoulder, both DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice threaten to have expanded roles against Washington's No. 8 run defense. The game isn't until Monday night, and a last-minute scratch is always a possibility for a player returning from serious injury. Jones is expected to play, but he's yet to "earn" a start in a dicey situation with 86 total yards and a miserable 2.65 YPC average through two games. We're talking about a banged-up, potential committee back who isn't playing well. Sit 'em. ... Kevin Ogletree failed to capitalize on Dez Bryant's Week 2 inactivity, managing two catches for 50 yards against a 49ers secondary that is worse than the Redskins'. Ogletree didn't so much as command a target until the second half, and just two of Tony Romo's 33 attempts were intended in his direction. Romo showed more confidence in Jesse Holley after Miles Austin's late-game hamstring strain. Don't pick up Ogletree.

ESPN's Ed Werder reported Friday morning that Bryant (thigh) "in all likelihood" will play against the Redskins. A dominant physical talent who stands to benefit from Austin's absence, Bryant is a must-start WR2 in this game. ... With Austin definitely out and Bryant perhaps less than 100 percent, this matchup has played out well for Jason Witten. Behind only Austin, Witten amassed a Cowboys-high 14 targets for seven receptions and 102 yards with Bryant out of the lineup last week. Witten has tortured the Washington secondary in recent meetings, racking up at least 117 yards in two of the past three. ... Ranked ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring so far, Romo remains a shoo-in top-10 quarterback play despite injured ribs. His "slightly" punctured lung has healed completely, and all signs point toward Romo getting the start.

Rex Grossman kicked off last week's game with interceptions on back-to-back drives, but showed resilience (and improved his job security) by engineering a comeback win. It's worth noting that Santana Moss miscommunicated his route on Rexy's first pick, and Cardinals CB A.J. Jefferson held Anthony Armstrong on the second. It feels uncomfortable defending Rex Grossman, but he's emerged as a reasonable QB1 option with 40.6 throws per game and 11 touchdowns in five starts as a Redskin. It certainly doesn't hurt that Dallas is susceptible to the pass. Alex Smith and Mark Sanchez -- both bottom-ten NFL passers -- have combined for a 61.8 completion rate, 7.56 YPA, four touchdowns, and two interceptions against them. And washed-up 33-year-old LCB Terence Newman's return is hardly a difference maker. ... Through two games, tight ends have licked the Cowboys defense for 10 grabs, 150 yards, and two touchdowns. Fred Davis is a top-five TE play.

Jabar Gaffney remains a low-level WR3 lacking big-play ability. ... Santana Moss ripped up Dallas for 14 catches, 149 yards, and two touchdowns in two 2010 meetings. Start 'em. ... 3-4 defenses like the Cowboys' are notorious for struggling against zone-running schemes like Washington's. The Redskins' carry distribution is just too murky for fantasy comfort. Coach Mike Shanahan rode the hot hand in Week 2, giving big-play rookie Roy Helu 13 touches en route to 112 yards (8.69 average). Through two games, starter Tim Hightower has 49 touches for 203 yards (4.14). Shanahan is a big fan of per-play production stats, often citing them in pressers with the media. Owners with depth may want to give this backfield a week to play out, before targeting the Skins' Week 4 game against the Rams for a fantasy start. It's perhaps notable that ESPN's Adam Schefter drafted Helu in his fantasy league on September 1. (Click here for proof.) Schefter wrote a book with Shanahan when he was on the Denver Post Broncos beat in 1999.