INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -
Indiana’s three Republican Senate candidates continue to voice support for
President Donald Trump’s trade brinkmanship with China, even as economists
and agriculture experts warn that a trade war would drive farmers into
bankruptcy while hurting the state economically.

Indiana would be
hit hard if China moves forward with retaliatory tariffs on corn, soybeans
and pork, which are among a number of measures the country has proposed in
response to Trump’s call for tariffs on aluminum and steel, experts say.

"There’s a lot of
fear,” said Andy Fix, a corn and soybean farmer from Shelby County. “Already
with just the posturing we’ve seen between the Trump administration and
China, we’re seeing a lot of added volatility come into the soybean market
that we haven’t seen in a long time.”

If they’re worried
about the potential fallout, none of the Indiana Republican Senate
candidates are showing it.

With few major
policy differences to distinguish themselves, Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke
Messer, and former state Rep. Mike Braun have each clamored to portray
themselves as the biggest Trump supporter. Whoever wins the May 8 primary
will face Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in November.

“I want to be based
on data and not emotion, so I definitely continue to support the president
on these targeted tariffs,” Rokita said Monday. A similar message has been
echoed by Messer and Braun, though all three have been avid supporters of
free trade in the past.

That’s of little
solace to Indiana’s agriculture industry, which would be slapped with 25
percent tariffs on its main exports. It also puts the candidates at odds
with farmers, who tend to vote Republican.

China is the
world’s largest user of soybeans and the proposed tariff would result in an
estimated $150 million a year drop in Indiana soybean revenues, assuming a 5
percent drop in prices, according to Purdue University agriculture economist
Christopher Hurt. That’s a 10 percent decline in annual incomes, Hurt
estimates. U.S. hog prices would drop by about $3 a head, he said.

"To take that big
of a hit from China will have a large effect on Indiana agriculture,” said
Bob White, director of national government relations for the Indiana Farm
Bureau. “I think Indiana will lose some farmers over this should it be
implemented in totality.”

Chinese President
Xi Jinping pledged Tuesday to open his country to wider foreign competition,
a move praised as conciliatory. But longtime China observers caution that
Beijing has promised in the past to open its market and curb hardball
tactics without following through.

Trump even
acknowledged this week that the foreign response to his tariffs could cause
hardship for farmers, whom he praised as “great patriots” while promising to
“make it up to them.” He did not offer specifics.

The U.S. economy
may be booming overall, but agriculture has been hurting for at least four
years, said White, who worked on the Senate Committee on Agriculture when
former GOP Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar was chairman.

Of the candidates,
Braun particularly has been all over the map in recent months. During a
February debate he voiced opposition to tariffs. But that has since changed.
Last week he praised Trump’s actions, while suggesting farmers could find
other markets for their products. This week, Braun said that the federal
government should take action to protect farmers.

“During these
negotiations, President Trump has instructed (Agriculture) Secretary (Sonny)
Perdue to shield our farmers from China’s shortsighted retaliations and I
trust him at the negotiating table to deliver better deals that help our
country,” Braun said in a statement.

Farmers are
skeptical.

“It’s hard to see
where feasibly they can make it easier on the farmers. You can’t go back to
the days of the old farm program with direct payments to make up that
difference,” said Fix.

Messer, meanwhile,
has largely avoided saying anything of substance about the issue. He said
Tuesday that Trump’s “aggressive posture” was “welcome.” But he also said
steps need to be taken to make sure “we don’t hurt Indiana manufacturing and
we look out for Indiana agriculture,” without specifying what those steps
should be.

Rokita said he is
concerned about farmers but supports Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum
because he thinks they will benefit Indiana’s steel industry.

Purdue University
economist Wally Tyner said that doesn’t take into account the state’s
automobile and heavy equipment manufacturing sector, which makes up a larger
share of the state’s economy and would be hit hard by rising steel and
aluminum costs.

“One in four jobs
in Indiana is in transportation manufacturing,” said Tyner. “Four of the top
ten exporting cities in the country are in Indiana. They would all lose.”

That includes
diesel engine maker Cummins, which is headquartered in Columbus, Subaru’s
Lafayette plant, which is part of Rokita’s congressional district, and
Greensburg’s Honda plant, which is in Messer’s district. Kokomo, which is
also in Rokita’s district, makes auto parts and Chryslers. Rolls Royce also
has a presence in the state, as does heavy equipment maker Caterpillar.

Then there is
Elkhart County, which has long billed itself as the “RV capital of the
world.”

Farmers are hoping
cooler heads prevail.

“Something like
this, it can have a significant and immediate impact on your bottom line
this year,” said Fix. “When you have farms potentially on the brink, it may
seem like an emotional response, but it’s a very real concern.”