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As of mid-2009, it appeared that the Sinhalese government had taken a very aggressive tack and was actually increasing the number of troops it was putting into the field. It was also exacerbating ethnic and religious tensions with the Tamils instead of attempting to address their social concerns. 4). Further, the data were clearly reinforced by the qualitative research conducted not only by our analysts but also by many of the theorists and practitioners cited in this study. In our study, insurgents who have enjoyed sanctuary have won almost half of the conflicts that have been clearly decided (23 out of 52).

3). As of mid-2009, it was unclear whether the government saw the necessity to address the underlying concerns that first instigated the insurgency. Qualitative analysis indicates that the most likely end-state sequence at this stage will involve protracted negotiations, amnesties, political engagement, and the development of at least one extremist splinter group or group of hibernating insurgent cells. This sequence of end-state events may play out over the course of an additional five to ten years.

They are derived from qualitative and quantitative research, showing general trends over the course of an insurgency and, more specifically, end state in relation to the overall “arc” of the conflict. Plots on the graphs are not tightly linked to x- and y-axis increments. 61, fig. 3) in Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. Conventional Wisdom We use this term in a complimentary rather than pejorative sense, in that it helped us to isolate what we consider to be the authorities in the fields of insurgency and COIN.