Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Weaver, Cano, Thome

Four years ago today, Astros owner Drayton McLane fired GM Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner. Houston was 58-73 at the time, a steep fall following six straight winning seasons. Tal Smith replaced Purpura on an interim basis before giving way to current GM Ed Wade after that season, and Cecil Cooper replaced Garner and managed the team until the very end of the 2009 season.

Ownership of the Astros is in the process of being transferred from McLane to Jim Crane, so another GM change could be on the horizon. Here are this week's links…

Comments

so i read that article about the detroit catcher, he actually had the nerve too say that avila is arguably the best catcher in the game! Umm what? Mccann has done it for 6 years straight. he the is leader of one of the best teams in baseball. avila might be a good catcher. but he hasnt even done it for a year! after 6 years if he still compares too big mac then you can say something! until then, not even a question, who the best catcher in baseball is.

I agree. Im a tigers fan and I just watched Avila hit his 17th earlier, but he was pretty bad his first couple years. And im not saying that this year is a fluke at all. But lets see how he performs next year before we compare him to McCann.

an extension for cano screams unnecessary risk to me. he’s a
very good hitter, but not a great one. most of his offensive value comes from his
position. he’s already under a 2 year, $30M contract through age 30. his agent is scott boras. it will almost certainly take huge money to extend him, and they’d be extending him through his mid-thirties

cano is a great talent and he’s homegrown so i understand the urge. but after several big league seasons his miniscule walk-rate hasn’t improved a bit, so he’s essentially performing without a net. any significant lapse in BABIP or just straight up slump can lead to another 2008. his defense isn’t above questioning either, so there are more risks going forward than just injury. and they won’t be getting a discount from a guy who already makes $13M per year and is represented by boras

First off, he has one of the sweetest swings in the game. It’s quick, and powerful. I don’t think the bat speed slows down until his next contract expires. I mean, he’s only 28, and coming into his prime. You’re looking at a .300+ 30HR hitter. As for the walks, that’s just not his game, and that’s okay. Everyone, including himself, has realized that. And this is the one guy I can’t figure out how his UZR is so low. Dude makes plays on the reg.

I think you’re in the extreme minority with that thinking. Any team (or their fans) would try to extend him, but the Yankees don’t do extensions, so they’ll probably wait till his contract expires then re-sign him for bank.

the yanks front office is in the extreme minority with me, then? i accept

.300 batting averages and 30 HR totals are pretty, but they’re also much more volatile than 15% walk-rates, for example. i don’t know why you’d be dismissive of that. i’m not badmouthing cano; i’m simply naming it as an important factor in this decision process

the primary concerns when extending a player long-term are injury and regression in performance. a player whose OBP is supported by good walk-rates has a natural hedge against flukey BABIPs and regular old bad years at the plate. sweet as his swing is, crap happens. and when it does, cano immediately falls from very good to below average (because when he’s not hitting he’s not on base)

good defense is another hedge against value plummeting during slumps and stretches of bad luck. for the most part, UZR has been alone in its opinion on cano’s defense. but DRS and +/- have him below average this season and they’ve had him so before. i wouldn’t expect it to be a problem until he’s much older … but that’s relevant when you’re talking about extending him until he’s much older

the conclusion that it’s an unnecessary risk isn’t a condemnation of the player’s talent, as at least a few yankees fans already have seemed to read it. extending tulowitzki was an unnecessary risk, too. and he’s obviously phenomenal

unlike the rockies, the yankees don’t have to worry about being outbid when cano hits the market. they have a lot less to lose and thus a lot less to gain from assuming such risk by extending cano now

I understand the hesitancy of people to extend players into their mid-to-late 30’s and beyond, but someone like Cano is special. He came out of the gate with a hot bat and has never really slowed down.

A lot of people attribute his 2008 numbers to someone who had just gotten a massive deal that made him a millionaire overnight and he was coasting on pure talent rather than effort.

Since 2008 he’s put up two MVP-calibre seasons in a row and is on pace for similar numbers this year, also adding stronger base running to his repertoire. So the guy doesn’t walk. He also forces pitchers to throw a ton in each of his at-bats. Or at least he’s getting better at doing this than before.

He isn’t showing any signs of decline. If anything he’s settled into himself as a player and is only improving, of late.

If there was a better option at 2nd base, I’d understand the hesitancy, but there isn’t. Also, from a fan’s perspective, though I’ll always be a Yankees fan above a player’s fan, I like seeing my teams intact. I root for the person sometimes as much as the uniform and I’d like to see a core group of guys stick together for as long as possible. Cano is home grown talent who, talent willing, should be a Yankee lifer.

6 years/$120MM seems like the perfect deal to me, especially in lieu of the fact that there’s nobody who could adequately replace him.

I love how people get so high on players so quickly and forget about them just as quick with a bad season. I’m sorry i know the season Joe Mauer is having but he’s not even being talked about in a conversation for best catcher cause of one year? i hope he hits .350 next season with 25 home runs and a .950ops so people will remember the best catcher in baseball.

this isnt a knock on mauer, because i love mauer, but he may not even be much more than a part time catcher going forward…dont get me wrong, if he moves to first base of RF then i still expect allstar calibur numbers, but id be surprised if he catches more than around 75-80 games next season

I’m guessing you have some pretty heavy AL bias then, because I can’t find any information, statisical or otherwise to suggest Lester is better than those three this year. Kershaw for example strikes out more batters than Lester, walks less, gives up less home runs. Better ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR, whatever you’re into. So how is it “not even close”?

I hate the Red Sox with every fiber of my being. To be honest, I didn’t realize that all of those pitchers were in the NL until you brought it up. So no. I don’t have any bias at all. But stats do show that pitchers do better in the NL so who knows what stats would say if he was in the NL. But as far as who has the best stuff, Lester beats them all.

There is absolutely no good reason for the Yankees to even consider an extension for Cano. Who’s he going to go sign with if he hits free agency? The Yankees will offer the most money AND he’s already used to their system. When you extend a player, it’s to avoid them hitting free agency and getting scooped up by someone else. Considering there’s effectively zero risk of that happening, I don’t see the point.

I challenge anyone to give me one good reason for the Yankees to discuss an extension with him now.

I wouldn’t bother trying to extend him yet, but I would try to sign him to an extension probably between the 2012-2013 seasons. I don’t think this is what you were trying to argue, but it kinda sounds like you were arguing that they shouldn’t try to extend him at all and that they should just sign him after he hits free agency, which I don’t agree with. They would most likely save themselves a decent amount of money if they extended him before he hit free agency.

Yeah, I get that, but players get more than anyone would expect them to get in free agency all the time. Sure the Yankees would outbid anyone to bring Cano back, but there is a good chance they get him for less if they sign him before anyone else can try to pry him away.

FWIW I’m not sure I buy 8/160 for a 31 year old second baseman, Boras might ask for that in the beginning, but I have a hard time seeing it happen. I would think more like 6/132 (higher AAV, fewer years). Though the Yankees have given out crazier contracts so who knows.