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TOP Dem women to watch in 2016

All but absent is the (somewhat disingenuous) lamenting about a permanent campaign driven by a horse race-obsessed media; some of the likely GOP candidates are practically flaunting their efforts to get an early jump on the competition.

But hand-wringing or not, the current activity adds to the sense of a non-stop campaign — at a time when the GOP is still soul-searching after a blistering 2012 cycle and as donor money is flowing less freely than it did four years ago.

And it’s showing that the 2012 presidential campaign — notable for its unusually late start despite President Barack Obama’s low poll numbers and an energized Republican base — was the exception to a historical trend of national races beginning earlier and earlier rather than some kind of return to rationality.

Indeed, the 2016 cycle is looking more in line with previous cycles. The early start in no small measure comes down to the fact that the White House will be up for grabs in 2016 as opposed to 2012, when the Democratic side was set.

“When the presidency is going to be open, the race starts yesterday,” said Democratic strategist Steve Murphy.

What’s driving the early ramp-up is different for each party: For Democrats, it’s the intense interest in a second Clinton campaign, which looks likely but not certain. On the Republican side, the rivalry among a large number of potential hopefuls is prompting several of them to start laying the groundwork more than three years out.

“We have a deep bench of 2016 prospects, and it’s obvious that several of them are already preparing in case they decide to pull the trigger,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committee member who backed Rick Perry and then Mitt Romney in 2012. “One of the clear lessons from 2012 is if you want to go the distance, the candidate and the campaign better be ready.”

“There is no heir apparent inheriting a strong current from the ’12 primary,” said New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Rich Killion. “The president’s shrinking standing fuels not just [a] sense of … angst over [the] ’12 election outcome but also a hunger to win the White House in ’16.”

At the same time, unless former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush runs, there is no particular Republican candidate who is a favorite of the donor class — a contrast to 2012, when Romney locked up money support early, and 2008, when next-in-line John McCain and Rudy Giuliani elbowed other candidates out of major donor support.

“I think 2012 was an anomaly — I think the race for president is going to continue to become earlier and earlier, not later and later,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who worked on John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign.

But Devine declared the Democratic side of the equation essentially over if Hillary Clinton runs, despite a growing acknowledgement among operatives and the former first lady’s supporters that she will most likely face some type of challenge from the left. She’s “effectively an incumbent, perhaps challenged within the party, but it’s hard to see what I would describe as a mainstream challenger” attempting to stop her, as was the case in 2008, Devine said.

Clinton hasn’t said what she will do but is remaining in the mix, in part, by hitting the speaking circuit since she left the State Department in February. But the era of super PACs means that unlike the old days, when candidates needed their own PAC to help them establish political chits, an infrastructure is forming to support her before she’s even made her intentions clear.

Among the efforts: The Ready for Hillary super PAC and a project by EMILY’s List to elect the first Madam President, whoever that may be. There’s also the recent project by opposition research super PAC American Bridge called Correct the Record, which a number of Democrats see as an effort by longtime Clinton ally David Brock to give her an early boost.

“I think anybody who is considering running for president in 2016 is thinking about how their supporters would set up an organization to support their campaign independently, and Hillary is already doing that on the Democratic side,” said one Republican operative involved in the 2012 cycle. “They’re ahead of the game in terms of having an outside organization.”

Yet it’s not clear that her entry to the race would have the clarifying effect that it did six years ago. In 2007, McCain was next in line for the nomination, yet a number of Republicans saw Giuliani as their best hope to defeat Clinton — and when she started to fade, so did he.