IDC publishes another load of analyst prediction guff

Here is the smartphone market share according to IDC. Have a look at that purple line. That’s Windows Phone. As you can see, for 3 years, it’s not really moved a great deal.

I’m not going to say anything more about that. I wish Windows Phone was more successful. I wish there was a bit more choice at times, but we’ve got what we’ve got.

What annoys me though, is the constant and regular stream of guff that is spouted in “predictions” by “analysts” from IDC and elsewhere that promise a huge turnaround in Windows Phone fortunes.

Let’s turn the clock back to 2010 shall we? Back then IDC confidently stated that Microsoft were expected to regain market share, hitting a 9.8% share by 2014.

In 2011 they went further, stating that Windows Phone would become the number 2 OS with a 20.3% share that would put Apple in the shade.

The figures didn’t really back up their previous predictions, so in 2012 they stated that Windows Phone would hit a 19.2% share and beat Apple by 2016 instead.

By 2013 it was becoming clear that the bullish predictions were becoming hugely wide of the mark, so expectations were lowered somewhat, saying that perhaps it would hit a 10.2% share by 2017.

In 2014 the back-pedaling was pretty fierce, with a 6.3% share perhaps achievable by 2018.

Now here in 2015, according to IDC, Windows Phone actually has a 3.2% market share and they reckon it’ll hit 5.4% by 2019. Although shipments are up, the market share is climbing a lot more slowly and a lot less than expected.

What we can also see is the fact that “analysts” don’t get things right, and, despite Windows Phone handsets working well, pleasing owners and shipping more (currently 46.8 million), they’re still skidding around in the sand trying to get traction.

Will the IDC “expectations” for 2019 come true? A 5.4% market share for Windows Phone sounds low, but it would represent 103.5 million shipments, which would be fantastic.

Based on the track history of these “analyst predictions”, I’m not going to hold my breath.