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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
RECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS TURNED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 130/9. HARVEY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...COUPLED WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE BAD WEATHER...NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HARVEY WILL TURN TO THE EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND HAS SOMEWHAT
LESS ACCELERATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL TRACK.
BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT...THE
INTIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT ASYMMETRIC
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 26.4N 83.5W 45 KTS
12HR VT 21/1800Z 25.7N 82.2W 45 KTS
24HR VT 22/0600Z 26.6N 79.1W 45 KTS
36HR VT 22/1800Z 29.1N 75.4W 45 KTS
48HR VT 23/0600Z 33.0N 71.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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