Why the 3DS Won't Be $300 in the US

Warning: Lots of facts and figures below. Feel free to skip to the conclusion which I've bolded below. Then if you want to see my proof, go ahead and check out my proof in the paragraphs above.

Yes, the price of the 3DS in Japan is 25000 yen. Yes, 25000 yen does convert to almost $300 US. However, did you know that the DSiLL retails for 19040 yen in Japan today? 19040 yen is at the time of this writing worth 227.75 USD. "What does the DSi XL retail for in the US?" you ask. $169.99 is the answer. Japan always pays a higher price for its consumer electronics than the US does and Nintendo adjusts the price by territory to make their product appealing in each market. Want another example? The PSP Go (White) retails in Japan for 21,738 yen in Japan which comes out to $260. What does it actually retail for? $195. [Note: the reason I compared the white psps as opposed to the piano black model is that black in the US is only sold in bundles right now.] These prices might be skewed according to the popularity of each system in each region, but it's also important to remember that both the Go and the XL released in the US later than they did in Japan. They are therefore a newer product and have had less time to sell at their premium prices. So this price difference could just as easily be skewed low as high.

So then what will the price of the 3DS be when it releases in North America? My first response is to say that only Nintendo knows. My second response would be a gut reaction of $250. However, if we were to look at it mathematically, we might get a more accurate answer. If we divide the difference in price between the PSP Go in the US and in Japan we see that there are .009 dollars in the US price for every yen in the Japanese price. If we run the the same comparison with the DSi XL we get .0089. That's pretty damn close to a constant ratio. Please take note that I picked the DSi XL and the PSP Go not because they best support my argument, but because they are the closest handheld systems to their launch and therefore have had the least amount of time for the ratio to be corrupted by the systems' sales numers. So, if we apply this ratio to the 3DS price in Japan we get a price of just under $225 in the US.

If we take the next two newest portable systems the DSi and the PSP-3000 we get a USD to yen price ratio of .011 which, if we applied it to the Japanese 3DS price, predicts a US price of $275. However, as I've said, these systems are older and have had more time to equalize in price between the two territories. The launch price of the DSi in Japan (according to google) for 18900 yen and in the US (according to Wiki) for $169.99. So if we compare these launch prices we once again obtain the price-difference ratio of .009 between the US and Japan which would predict a $225 machine. I'd like to do a comparison of the PSP 3000's launch prices but I can't seem to track it down for the US and Japan. If anyone can find that info for me I'll update this post with the findings. Still the most important company to look at with regards to pricing is Nintendo as the 3DS is their baby. While we're throwing around all these numbers we might as well compare the launch prices od the DSi LL and XL too. LL launched in Japan for 20000 yen while the XL launched in North America for 189.99. The difference here is .0095 which, when multiplied with the Japanese 3DS price of 25000 yen, predicts a US price of $237.50. That's not the best news for those hoping for a $225 3DS launch, especially considering that the DSi XL is Nintendo's latest hardware and likely best reflects their current mindset. However, it's far from the feared price of $300.

Sorry for the repetition of both numbers and methodology, but I wanted anyone reading this to see very clearly where I got my numbers from. There's no guarantee that Nintendo will keep up the trend of launching with an approximate .009 dollar to yen ratio price difference. They might go crazy and charge us $300 or $350 if they think it'll sell.

However, it's likely that they will continue with their current price difference architecture and we'll get a system that retails for somewhere between $225 and $250 in US.

I hope this does something to reassure those who are freaking out over the $300 price tag. I suspect we'll see in a day or two if I am correct. I'm sorry this post is so dry but I hope it helps.