Yikes: Wendy Davis trails Greg Abbott in Texas — among women

posted at 5:21 pm on April 15, 2014 by Allahpundit

Via the Caller, pollster Kellyanne Conway surveys the state of the “war on women” in Texas: “Women get exhausted with women candidates who say they are pro-woman and then run on issues that real women don’t say are most important to them.”

The favorability numbers are even starker. Among women, Abbott scores 35/27 while Davis clocks in at … 32/46. That’s basically identical to her 33/48 favorability among men. She ran on her biography, and this is where it got her.

This isn’t the only core constituency with whom she’s underperforming, though. If that earlier post about the CIS study on immigration bummed you out, here’s a ray of hope from Texas. All it takes to narrow the margin among Latinos in a red state is a terrible Democratic candidate who’s famous as an abortion warrior:

Even a bad Democrat is good enough to lead among Latinos in a conservative stronghold, but to scare Abbott she’d need to be somewhere around +30, not +10. There was speculation after she lost some of the heavily Latino southern counties to her no-name primary opponent that her abortion record had alienated some Catholic voters. These numbers will keep that theory alive.

It’s not all good news, though. Here’s a warning from the Ghost of Elections Future:

It’s true nationally and also true here — younger voters lean left. To some extent, though, the age split is a function of the state’s racial split: There are more Latinos under age 40 in Texas than there are whites, and the disparity is more pronounced among younger children (in fact, a majority of Texas public-school students are Latino). If a reliably Democratic group is overrepresented in a demographic that’s already more inclined to prefer Dems, having come of age when the country was souring on Bush and embracing Hopenchange, then yeah, even Wendy Davis will benefit. Not enough to win the election, but check back in 10 years and see how Governor Abbott’s numbers look then.

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Abortion Barbie’s message does not play well outside of the DFW and Houston.

And BTW, predicting out the mood of the nation 10-years out is pretty bold. Given that one massive incident (like the 9/11/01 atrocities) can change that dynamic in an instant. IMO the pollsters of 2014 don’t have a clue what the touchstone issues will be in 2024. Certainly the gays will have finally shut up- no matter how that issue pans out. There will have been some version of amnesty with all sorts illegals not voting “Americans” despite the fact they are criminals. And who knows what else will factor into the mix.

And BTW, predicting out the mood of the nation 10-years out is pretty bold. Given that one massive incident (like the 9/11/01 atrocities) can change that dynamic in an instant. IMO the pollsters of 2014 don’t have a clue what the touchstone issues will be in 2024.

Happy Nomad on April 15, 2014 at 5:38 PM

Especially since, thanks to Abortion Barbie and her STD-spreading ilk, the only people who will be having, or who are even capable of having, kids by that point will be religious and social conservatives.

I love how the Party of Young and Stupid is aborting itself right out of power. Demographics as destiny, baby. No wonder they are desperate to import 20 million new illiterate socialists.

I still think it’s disturbing that a devious, unqualified abortion enthusiast is pulling 37% in Texas.

forest on April 15, 2014 at 5:28 PM

Three words. Sheila Jackson Lee.

Not everybody in TX is smart. Sometimes even the most ignorant among them end up in Congress.

“Maybe I should offer a good thanks to the distinguished members of the majority, the Republicans, my chairman and others, for giving us an opportunity to have a deliberative constitutional discussion that reinforces the sanctity of this nation and how well it is that we have lasted some 400 years, operating under a constitution that clearly defines what is constitutional and what is not.”

I love how the Party of Young and Stupid is aborting itself right out of power. Demographics as destiny, baby. No wonder they are desperate to import 20 million new illiterate socialists.

northdallasthirty on April 15, 2014 at 5:44 PM

Yep. I live in the DC area. The city itself is somewhat under a political identity crisis. Since home rule, DC has always been a chocolate city. Always governed by a black male.

In 2014, the demographics are changing. DC has growing and vibrant. Neighborhoods filled with young, non-chocolate, professionals and that is changing the voting patterns. In November, DC could actually find itself with its first openly gay white mayor. And the establishment is appalled.

As a wise man once said – “If you’re not a liberal at age 20, you have no heart; but if you’re not a conservative by age 35, you have no brain.”

Just as the young don’t make as much money, but (mostly) progress up through the income brackets as they get older; they (many, not all) also get wiser as they age and their voting shifts to the right.

Especially since, thanks to Abortion Barbie and her STD-spreading ilk, the only people who will be having, or who are even capable of having, kids by that point will be religious and social conservatives.

northdallasthirty on April 15, 2014 at 5:44 PM

They got that covered. It’ll be referred to as “child re-distribution”, and there’ll be a guy who promises to take “just a few more children” from large families and give them to the childless gheys.

The younger demographic has always leaned left though, correct? So can’t we continue to count on a sizable portion of them getting hit in the face by reality when they finally have to get a job/pay back student loans/start a business/etc? Just because they lean left now, doesn’t mean that they will all stay foolish.

Any black or hispanic HotAir folks want to explain her appeal? I’m stupefied why predominantly Catholic (true?) hispanics are down with her outer-space views on abortion. I’m not being sarcastic; I would really like to know what drives those numbers.

Just as the young don’t make as much money, but (mostly) progress up through the income brackets as they get older; they (many, not all) also get wiser as they age and their voting shifts to the right.

dentarthurdent on April 15, 2014 at 6:04 PM

The conversion starts with the first movement into a higher tax bracket (or the first they have a tax liability), and accelerates as income increases over time and the tax breaks begin to drop like flies.

I think AP is falling victim to the liberal mentality of viewing all demographics as static.
The Dems don’t seem to understand that the people making good money now started out at minimum wage years ago, and those making minimum wage now, may very well be upper middle class or even “evil wealthy” 20 years from now.
Same goes for which way they vote – young and stupid/inexperienced/ignorant lean left – with a few years of real world experience and wisdom, they lean right.

Any black or hispanic HotAir folks want to explain her appeal? I’m stupefied why predominantly Catholic (true?) hispanics are down with her outer-space views on abortion. I’m not being sarcastic; I would really like to know what drives those numbers.

Probably never. They’ve been conditioned that Republicans are racist and bad. They don’t even listen to the message. It’s just automatic.

Bitter Clinger on April 15, 2014 at 6:07 PM

The true legacy of LBJ. Republicans were not the ones standing in school doorways denying blacks entry. Republicans were not the ones opposing them at the Edmund Pettis Bridge. Republicans are the party that supported emancipation. All of that legacy warped by propaganda in the 1960s.

That’s because younger voters are stupid and poor. They turn to the party that promises to steal money from people who have it (a smaller and smaller cohort nowadays, those with money) to give to those too stupid to know how destructive and unsustainable such policies truly are.

Give them time to grow up, grow wiser, and accrue some assets they wish to protect. They’ll be singing a different tune, regardless of race/ethnicity.

Her “country” in this case is Texas. I’m not voting for the woman, but I would still want to her in person. I hate forming opinions of people without first meeting them. I still do it though. Who knows, maybe she is a good gal. Girlfriend leans Democratic, gotta make sure I cross all my t’s when talking about women candidates.

Her “country” in this case is Texas. I’m not voting for the woman, but I would still want to her in person. I hate forming opinions of people without first meeting them.

TexasJack on April 15, 2014 at 6:37 PM

What I’m hearing you say is that Davis isn’t making much effort to campaign outside the more urban areas of the state. Spending her time among swing areas outside DFW, Houston, and Austin instead of really campaigning throughout Texas.

Allah: keep in mind that this is PPP. If Davis is under water with women, there is no way Abbot is only up 14 points. I guarantee some of those internals you are doing your usual eeyoring over aren’t nearly as bad as Tommy Jenson is feeding you. Abbot’s floor is a 25 point win at this point. Book it.

The true legacy of LBJ. Republicans were not the ones standing in school doorways denying blacks entry. Republicans were not the ones opposing them at the Edmund Pettis Bridge. Republicans are the party that supported emancipation. All of that legacy warped by propaganda in the 1960s.

Martin Luther King was a Republican.

Happy Nomad on April 15, 2014 at 6:16 PM

I’ll go further than this, and argue that Democrats pushed Great Society as hard as they did so they could get Blacks back onto the proverbial plantation ASAP after ’64.

On Oct. 12, 1963, just 41 days before his assassination, President Kennedy signed the bill into law that expropriated the Fazendeville property owners’ land. No one came to their defense. The St. Bernard Voice reported: “At 8:00 a.m. Wednesday November 25th 1964 the Fazendeville Road running from the Mississippi River to St. Bernard Highway was closed to public travel by the federal government.” At the Police Jury meeting the Tuesday before, District Attorney Leander Perez was requested by the jury to seek a restraining order to prevent closing of the road. They reasoned that no notice of closing had been given to Police Jury in advance. Was someone finally coming to the defense of this helpless community of black citizens? No – the Police Jury’s concern was not about displacing the Fazendeville community but about access to the sewerage treatment plant that occupied that parcel of land between the community and the river.

All that community wanted was to be left alone, to live their lives in peace: something to which the statists have been, and remain, vehemently opposed.

I’m a Texan. I am a woman. I wouldn’t vote for Wendy Davis if she promised me a million dollars. I’ve been telling y’all for months that she stands a snowballs chance in he// of winning the governorship here. We pretty much regard her as a joke.