National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Saturday, 4 March 2017

The report of the Commons Committee on Exiting
the EU (known to its friends as the Brexit Committee) on the rights of EU
citizens resident here, and UK citizens resident in other EU countries, is a
welcome contribution to a debate that has so far generated rather more heat
than light.

The
headlines will be for its recommendation that “the UK should now make a unilateral
recommendation to safeguard the rights of EU nationals living in the UK” (in
other words, that the government should accept at least the spirit of the Lords’
amendment passed last week).

This is
entirely sensible; the government’s line that we need to hold back on this commitment
to use as a “bargaining chip” (regardless of what you think of the morality of
this approach) is flimsy at best. For
it to be a useful bargaining chip, we would need a credible threat; since there
is neither the political will or the administrative capacity to deport large numbers
of EU citizens, this does not exist.

In the
meantime, the government’s refusal to commit is damaging the UK, both directly and in terms
of the UK’s image. In fact, this line is
dictated far more by domestic politics – in particular, the need to show that
it is the government, not Parliament, that will shape our approach to Brexit –
than by the Article 50 negotiation strategy.

But the report
is perhaps most useful for its thorough and detailed explanation of the administrative
and bureaucratic hurdles that will remain even when a solution is agreed in principle.
As I wrote back in August:

The practical
issues involved are formidable..There aren’t any ideal options – just less bad
ones. But anybody who thinks that with the best will in the world this will be
an easy issue to resolve is living in a fantasy world.”

The
Committee echoes this, and calls on the government, as a matter of urgency, to
either reform or (preferably) replace entirely the current permanent residency
application process:

The current process for consideration of permanent residency
applications is not fit for purpose and, in the absence of any concrete
resolution to relieve the anxiety felt by the estimated three million EU
citizens resident in the UK, it is untenable to continue with the system as it
stands. We recommend that the Government set out whether it intends the
permanent residence system to be the basis for EU nationals to demonstrate
their eligibility to reside in the UK once the UK leaves the EU. If so then it
needs to set out as a matter of urgency, how it will reform the permanent
residence application system. If not, then it needs to set out what an
alternative system will involve and what will be expected of EU nationals to
demonstrate their eligibility to reside in the UK once the UK leaves the EU.

Importantly,
there is absolutely no reason for the government not to start on this now and
to say so; in practical terms, it wouldn’t commit the government to doing
anything it won’t have to do at some point anyway. The fact that it hasn’t
reflects a combination of bureaucratic inertia and political unwillingness to
accept the inevitable consequences (for Home Office resources, for employers, and
for individuals). But reality has to kick in sometime. The sooner this happens, the smoother the process
will be, and the less unnecessary damage that will be inflicted. The Committee has a large number of detailed
and practical recommendations (on the need for any process to be simple,
without unrealistic administrative or
technical hurdles, and for
data-sharing). The government would do
well to listen.

Separately,
the Committee also discusses the post-Brexit immigration system, without coming
to any particularly firm conclusions. But it does make two important, related
points. First, that “taking back control” when it comes to immigration
policy/free movement doesn’t have much to do with border control per se. The Committee quotes me:

Ending free movement
immigration control is not going to be enforced at the borders at all. It
simply is not. We are still going to let people in, at Stansted and Heathrow,
with French passports. They just will not have the right to work here, and that
right to work will be enforced at the workplace.”

This
point is fundamental – it is employers (and landlords, public services,
universities, etc) who will be at the sharp end of changes to free movement. As the Committee says, “any new system will
add to the regulatory burden.” Or, as I put it:

When
it comes to immigration, “taking back control” means expanding the size and
role of the state.”

However,
one potential advantage of this point – that what we do at border controls is
not necessarily determined by what we do about individuals’ right to work in
the UK – is reflected in the Committee’s acceptance that there could, in
principle, be a geographic component to future policy – a Scottish work permit,
or a London one. Those who say that this
would require border controls at Hadrian’s Wall or the M25 simply miss the
point.

There’s
lots more detail on this and other issues in the report, which is certainly the
best summary of this set of issues produced so far;
it is well worth reading in full.