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Here are CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2017-18 season.

Show

Status

18-49 rating

Renew/Cancel Index

Me, Myself & I

Canceled

1.0

0.3

Wisdom of the Crowd

Canceled

0.92

0.22

Ransom (Sat.)

🐻 🐻 🐻

0.33

-0.23

Madam Secretary (O)

Renewed

0.64

-0.06

Living Biblically

Canceled

0.7

0.0

Code Black (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻

0.7

0.0

Superior Donuts (O)

🐻 🐻

0.91

0.21

Scorpion (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

0.82

0.12

NCIS: New Orleans (O)

Renewed

0.97

0.27

Man with a Plan (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.01

0.31

NCIS: Los Angeles (O)

Renewed

0.93

0.23

Criminal Minds (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

0.99

0.29

Instinct (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

0.83

0.13

SWAT

Renewed

0.95

0.25

SEAL Team (O)

Renewed

1.03

0.33

9JKL (O)

🐻 🐻

0.97

0.27

MacGyver (F) (O)

Renewed

0.85

0.52

Life in Pieces

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.13

0.43

Bull (O)

Renewed

1.19

0.49

Mom

Renewed

1.47

0.77

Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)

Renewed

0.98

0.70

Blue Bloods (F) (O)

Renewed

0.91

0.60

NCIS (O)

Renewed

1.41

0.71

Kevin Can Wait (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.2

0.5

Young Sheldon

Renewed

2.23

1.53

The Big Bang Theory

Renewed

2.75

2.05

“Instinct” seems like the kind of show that would be right in CBS’ wheelhouse, and a decent fit with its Sunday lineup. Yet it has put up some fairly weak 18-49 ratings thus far; half of its episodes have drawn 0.6s, and the ones that were higher benefited from live sports driving viewers into primetime.

And yet, the Bear is still pushing “Instinct” up to a likely renewal. The show has performed somewhat better — or at least in line with its fellow Sunday CBS shows — in the 25-54 demographic, which CBS targets. Network suits have also said they’re OK with drawing an older audience on Sundays.

The Bear wouldn’t be shocked if “Instinct” fails to make the cut in a couple weeks, but the odds are (a little bit) in its favor.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

🐻

sure bet to be canceled by May 2018

🐻 🐻

likely to be canceled by May 2018

🐻 🐻 🐻

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

likely to be renewed by May 2018

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.