World Series Value Bets

byJohn Ewing

College football starts in earnest this week and the NFL is just around the corner but don’t forget that baseball is entering its stretch run. Before you get swallowed up by fantasy football consider making these World Series future bets.

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the World Series and compare that to the projected odds that they lift the Commissioner’s Trophy. For example, Chicago is the favorite at +260, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cubs they would need to win it all 27.8% (which is 100/(260+100)) of the time. The Cubbies are projected to win the World Series 19.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +250 odds.

Here are three teams with value.

Toronto Blue Jays

Current odds: +800, Implied Probability: 11.1%

Blue Jays win the World Series 12.3% of the time

Just four games separate three teams at the top of the AL East. Of the division leaders at the start of September, Toronto is the least likely (59.4%) to win the title. Yet, the Jays are an offensive juggernaut (top ten in runs/game and home runs) and are second in defensive efficiency. Toronto is positioned for a deep postseason run with MVP hopeful Josh Donaldson (8/1) and Cy Young candidate J.A. Happ leading the way.

Cleveland Indians

Current odds: +800, Implied Probability: 11.1%

Indians win the World Series 12.4% of the time

Could Cleveland win two titles in the same year? It is possible. The AL Central leading Indians are third in runs scored/game and have the second best ERA in the American League. Believeland!

Boston Red Sox

Current odds: +950, Implied Probability: 9.5%

Red Sox win the World Series 11.2% of the time

I understand you didn’t get the Red Sox at +1200 back in August but at +950 there is still value. Now is the time to jump on the bandwagon. The Red Sox called up Yoan Moncada, the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Boston has one of the best offenses in the game, Moncada will make them even better. Get off the tracks when the train is coming!

Below are all the teams with at least a one percent chance to win the World Series. Combined, these twelve teams win it all 98.6% of the time.