What do you think , the new wow expansion will be announced at Blizzcon ?

Definitely. Especially since they intend to have more frequent content and expansions and it was made clear that Siege of Orgrimmar would be this expansion last raid/content patch so they'd better have an announcement for the new xpac or they might be screwed really....

The longest an expansion has ever lasted was 25 months, and the average expansion duration is 23 months. Blizzard has stated they they are aiming for shorter expansions and patch cycles than in Wrath and Cata.

Mists will be over by September 2014 at the latest, or it will go beyond the average duration of an expansion, when Blizzard has stated that they are aiming for shorter thank average expansions. If Mists ends before September 2014, SoO can last, at an absolute maximum, 11 months.

Last spring, I predicted Mists' release date within one week of the actual date, several months before it was announced, so I think I've shown that I've been able to come up with reasonable launch estimates in the past. While I do not have as much information to work with in regards to the next expansion, here is a compilation of some information and patterns from previous expansion releases and previous Blizzard games, from which we can try to guess a probable release window:

Beta start date to release:

Burning Crusade closed Beta started in early October 2006, and it was released 3 months later, on January 16, 2007.
Wrath of the Lich King started its closed Beta on July 17th, 2008. It was released on November 13, 2008: 4 months later.
Cataclysm Beta testing began at the very end of June, 2010. It was released on December 7th, 2010-- 5 months later.
Mists of Pandaria Beta started March 20th, 2012. It was released September 25th, 2012, 6 months later. It skipped the Friends and Family alpha phase, possibly resulting in an abnormally long Beta duration.

I don't feel comfortable comparing expansion betas with the original Warcraft beta, or with the SC2/D3 betas, because those were for full games, not expansions, and in the case of SC2 and D3, completely different development teams and completely different games.

The Beta test for the next expansion will probably be between 5 and 7 months-- 5 months if the "extra" month on Mist's beta was due to a lack of Friends and Family Alpha, and 7 months if we assume that the beta for the next expansion will fit the "pattern" of the duration of the beta taking an additional month each time. Assuming it starts shortly after Blizzcon, the beta should end between April and June 2014, with a release following immediately afterwards.

We may also be able to infer that it will not have a Friends and Family Alpha testing phase, since Mists did not.

Official Expansion Reveal at Blizzcon:

Simply that every single World of Warcraft expansion has been revealed at and has been a major feature of a Blizzcon. It is very reasonable to expect the same of the next expansion.

Expansion Durations:

Burning Crusade lasted 22 months from its release to Wrath of the Lich King's release.
Wrath of the Lich King lasted 25 months from its release to Cataclysm's release.
Cataclysm lasted 21 months from its release to Mists of Pandaria's release
Mists has only been out for about 12 1/2 months as of this writing. Assuming that it will last a similar duration to Cataclysm/Burning Crusade or shorter, we should see the next expansion in spring or summer 2014 (sometime between April at the earliest, August at the latest).

I would assume that Blizzard is shooting for their 8-9 month final tier duration with SoO, or shorter, since ICC is the only outlier. If we assume they achieve their target window of 8-9 month duration of SoO, we will see the next expansion around April or May 2014.

In Conclusion:

I think we can expect the next expansion around April-June of 2014. They may be withholding information and be much farther along in internal testing than we think they are, which would allow them to start the Beta shortly after Blizzcon. The gap between Beta end and launch is usually only a few weeks at most, not "a month at least" like you're assuming- for example, the Cata beta ended on November 22, and it was released on December 7th, two weeks later.

Excellent write up, and I definitely agree with your reasoning. Late 2014 release would be just too long of a time.

Considering how long they've been dragging the announcing of the expansion, I wouldn't be surprised if SoO lasts a lot longer than their "promise". (Their promise suggested 6-7 months tops, but I think we're looking at 9 months)

However, 5.5 will probably offer some content. No new raid though, they've stated that SoO is the final raid of MoP. I'm just afraid that they'll lose too many subs in wait of the new expansion. Hopefully they'll do another annual pass thing to trick people into staying in for 5 months of heroic Garrosh farming with LFR gear (they'll nerf the encounter in 5.5, no doubt about it)

No, i dont think so. Not like the said Siege of ogrimmar would be the last major patch. So no, i dont think so, i think they will annouse they have bought runescape. And this is the end of wow. and in 2 years time they will come out with a game aimed at a "wider" audiens" which means it will have in game store for everything, and a more dumbed down combat and story, it can will have a side game app on tablets where you can do mini games like water your farm and walk your dog. And so the new warcraft game will be called" warcraft unlimited"

but but on topic. Yes. yes they will, anyone who says" actually, hehehehe, it have not been told for sure" is just being a stupid. They have said Siege of ogrimmar would be the last major patch for pandaria, so unless they have decied to close wow, there will be 100% sure a new xpack annoused at blizzcon

Excellent write up, and I definitely agree with your reasoning. Late 2014 release would be just too long of a time.

I dont think so, it would be WAY to late, They said(ofc blizzard have a habit of saying A and doing B. But over 1,3 year is to long with 1 patch, even if the prepatch is relased 2 mouths before the new xpack, i would say september the lastest, then Siege of ogrimmar would have been out for about a year(that is even pushing it)

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Simply that every single World of Warcraft expansion has been revealed at and has been a major feature of a Blizzcon. It is very reasonable to expect the same of the next expansion.

This x1,000,000. This expansion feels like it moved much faster than all of the other expansions between patches. Next month seems like a perfect time to announce a new expansion and whatever else they have planned for the rest of Mists.

3 hints to surviving MMO-C forums:
1.) If you have an opinion, someone will say that it is wrong
2.) If you have a source, there will be people who refuse to believe it
3.) If you use logic, it will be largely ignored
btw: Spires of Arak = Arakkoa.

while I agree with all the rest of your post, this is not 100% accurate. technically, Halion was the last tier of WOTLK, released end of june/start of july. so ICC as a "pure" last raid lasted "only" 7 months, and Halion then lasted another 5. But halion as a one-boss-raid cannot really be considered as "content", especially since the patch number was only a minor patch (3.3.5) and not a major (if it would've been, it would've been 3.4). so yeah, ICC 12 month is acceptable. it was overkill anyways.

But honestly, blizz always stated that they want shorter patch and expansion cycles, so I don't think they gonna make the 8-9 months duration for the last content. I rather expect 5-6 months + maybe one month lore-pre-patch. which would be beginning february for the pre patch and march for the expansion. something like this.

while I agree with all the rest of your post, this is not 100% accurate. technically, Halion was the last tier of WOTLK, released end of june/start of july. so ICC as a "pure" last raid lasted "only" 7 months, and Halion then lasted another 5. But halion as a one-boss-raid cannot really be considered as "content", especially since the patch number was only a minor patch (3.3.5) and not a major (if it would've been, it would've been 3.4). so yeah, ICC 12 month is acceptable. it was overkill anyways.

But honestly, blizz always stated that they want shorter patch and expansion cycles, so I don't think they gonna make the 8-9 months duration for the last content. I rather expect 5-6 months + maybe one month lore-pre-patch. which would be beginning february for the pre patch and march for the expansion. something like this.

but yes. blizzcon + announcement of next expansion = highly likely.

Halion was not a tier. He did not drop any new tier gear. If anything, he was a "half tier," since he did drop higher item budget loot, and came after the end of the BC-style raid implementation where we were frontloaded with all of the raid content and Sunwell was "tacked on" at the end.

But yes, as you said, he was a single-boss raid that, additionally, did not contain any tier gear, so I do not consider him a tier that would break up ICC's 12 month duration.

I think we're all about 99% positive there's going to be an expac revealed. I am in the "Heroes of the Storm" camp. I *WISH* it would be ready earlier in the year... like maybe early summer, simply because no one likes a year of nothingness between the final raid of an expansion (SoO in this case) and the release of the next.... but I don't get my hopes up too much in these cases. =[

I am of the opinion that the next expansion for WoW will be much closer than we think. The excellent write-up a few posts above this one does an excellent job of summing up what has gone on before, and infers what will happen next based on that - but I think there are a few key factors that are not being considered in that writeup, namely the negative player feedback that Blizzard has received over the length of their final tier raids (Dragon soul in particular) and Blizzard's renewed commitment to fast content releases with the advent of Mists of Pandaria.

Coming off the heels of Cataclysm and the Dragon Soul raid, which was fairly unpopular with the more vocal players, Blizzard affirmed that they were expanding the development team for WoW and planned on adding in raid content that was more extensive than that found in Cataclysm, and doing so much more often. Blizzard made me a believer of this philosophy when patch 5.1 dropped shortly (just about 2 months) after the release of Mists, and solidified this with the release of patch 5.2 in March of 2013 (4 months after 5.1). 5.3 came in May, 2 months after 5.2, and 5.4 arrived the first week of September - just a little over 4 months after 5.2. Compared to previous expansions, this is a blazingly fast rate of content released. Cataclysm went 5 months from launch to it's first content patch, which consisted merely of 2 old raids that had been re-hashed into 5-mans (players had to wait another 2 months - 7 months after the release of the expansion - for the first raid patch, Rage of the Firelands).

Not only has the content come faster in Mists, it's also been bigger content. As of 5.4, supposedly the final major content patch of MoP, there are 48 raid bosses in Mists of Pandaria (49 if you count Ra-Den, 53 if you counter the 4 celestials as seperate bosses). Compare this to 31 raid bosses in Cataclysm (32 counting Sinestra).

What's my point? During the MoP press tour, Blizzard re-iterated a new promise to players: "you will get content more quickly and it will be more expansive", and frankly they delivered on it. So what does this have to do with the next expansion?

One of the biggest complaints players have had on previous expansions is that the final tiers of raiding last far too long. Icecrown Citadel, as popular a raid as it was, was stale after 7 months - and even with the addition of Ruby Sanctum, players remained bored and subscriptions drop. Dragon Soul was very unpopular, lasting 9 months but also representing a fairly small raid given the length of time. Blizzard knows this is not what players want - they openly admitted this during the MoP press tour - and they aren't going to make the mistake again. The release of 5.4 puts them on a ticking clock, and I believe they know this and are intentionally approaching it as such.

So, my prediction for the next expansion is this: It will be announced at Blizzcon, like we all expect (and there will be a big feature included in the expansion aimed at bringing back previous subscribers - something players have been asking to happen for a long time, like Demon Hunters or Guild/Player Housing), and shortly after (early december at the earliest, January at the latest) the beta will launch. In January, a patch will drop that will bridge the gap between MoP and the next expansion and give players some new content (not a raid). Finally, in March (I'll be bold here - March 25th.) the next expansion will launch.