A start after
struggling against the Dodgers, Alfredo Simon's regression train
makes a stop in Phoenix as the Reds wrap up a weekend set against
the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks will send Wade Miley to the hill
against Simon. Simon has a 2.90 ERA but a 4.78 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP,
and a 4.36 SIERA. He has stranded nearly 86 percent of opposing
baserunners with a well below average strikeout rate and an average
defense.

The
Diamondbacks came around offensively in the month of May, ranking
13th in wOBA and sixth among National League teams. Their awful
start to the season has made for a tough hole to climb out of, but
the Diamondbacks have mostly been a .500 team since ending May at
9-22 and they're still being priced like they're playing poorly.
With an advantage in the pitching matchup, this is a good value on
them.

Wade Miley
has run into some bad luck this season. His strikeout rate is the
highest of his career, but his HR/FB rate has gone up and has
affected his ERA. Miley has a 4.76 ERA, which is skewing the
oddsmakers' perception of him. His FIP is 4.22 and his xFIP is
3.65. With a SIERA of 3.78, Miley is pitching about a full run
better than his ERA would indicate. He made big strides from April
to May in terms of limiting extra base hits, so we're confident
that his command has improved and with it, his stat line will
improve as well.

The Reds were
29th in wOBA last month and they don't walk, which makes both
getting baserunners and scoring runs far more difficult than it is
for most teams. The Reds entered play on Saturday 29th in batting
average and 30th in on-base percentage against lefties. They are 28
percent below league average against lefties this season.

The
Diamondbacks have an enormous advantage in this matchup and this
line should be higher than it is.