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A new thread for the discussion of the models. Please try to keep on topic as it is very difficult for people to read what the models are showing when informative posts are buried in one-liners and off-topic chat.

Bear in mind the team try to keep things as readable as possible, but when the thread is moving so fast theres only so much we can do. Please help us by thinking whether your post belongs here or in the other thread before you post it.

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What I meant in my post, and I should have elaborated more than I did was deep cold. IE more than just a few days cold at best. I am not convinced by the Op in the slightest.

I think it's always been an outsider esp since yesterday morning when that Low popped up. As I've said the pattern is generally to far east to produce (I think) but there is a great signal for later next week. The UKMO 144h holds a lot of interest going forward.

Temps next week are Cold nonetheless. If we can keep the pattern further west the better

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Having read some of the comments on the first page of this thread, I'm glad I actually went and looked at the models myself!

ECM is poor - no denying that. UKMO, it's difficult to know where we would go from there, it looks a bit delicately poised at 144. However, GFS really continues from 18z, heights not at strong as then across Greenland but at face value whilst a lot could go wrong (standard UK winter fare) it's a decent run!

Some people ought to look at an archive chart for the winter so far....or get a little more sleep

SK

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The 00Z EC Det model is in keeping with the 12Z run yesterday and to me, looks like another milder outlier. Clearly it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the EC is now far 'flatter' because of the distinct lack of a more meridional pattern with ridging up towards Greenland, which is evident on the GFS Det for example. Speaking of the GFS, the 00Z run is also in keeping with the 18Z, and whilst on the cold side of the 00Z GFSENS guidance envelope, it is not without support from some of the other GFSENS members.

The EC model in particular is sort of following a smaller number of it's ensembles at the moment. The pattern it shows is, without question, evident within it's ensembles, but there are a large majority of them that maintain a more meridional and blocked pattern that could 'produce' the goods further down the line. Clearly we are none the wiser as to how things will progress from approximately this time next week onwards. The weekends details remains uncertain as well, despite higher confidence for this low to move NW to SE on Fri/Sat before then clearing to the south into Sunday to allow the colder E or NE'ly flow, at least for 24 or 48hrs into early next week.

Take this as you will (disclaimer), but the overnight update of the EC32 day maintains a marked region of higher than average pressure to the north and north-west of the UK (Greenland block) throughout the remainder of January in particular, as a zone of lower than average pressure dominates to the south and south-east of the UK. The pattern is similar to the failed pattern back in November/December and the dominant direction of the wind is either from the N or NE within the EC32 throughout the rest of January with temperatures at least 2C or 3C below climate averages. So in essence a cold and wintry outlook from the EC32 day for the 2nd half of the month.

A fascinating period of model watching ahead. Clearly we could either end up getting 'both barrels' and see some proper cold and snowy conditions as per recent GFS Det runs, or we end up with something far more timid and Atlantic driven. Both are possibilities, but before anyone asks, I'm going to stick my neck out and say I believe/feel that the colder option is the more likely outcome within the next 14 to 21 days, especially when you factor in a really noteworthy SSW event.