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NFL Pick: New York Jets to go 'Over' 6.5 wins in 2014 Season

The New York Jets finished last season at 8-8 and missed the
playoffs for a third straight year yet apparently showed enough for Rex Ryan to
keep his job. Sportsbooks give the Jets a 2014 wins total of 6.5 on NFL odds,
with over a -135 favorite.

Looking BackRyan made a very controversial decision to leave projected
starting quarterback Mark Sanchez in during the fourth quarter of New York's
third exhibition game and Sanchez hurt his shoulder. He would have beaten out rookie
Geno Smith, who had struggled mightily, for the starting job but Sanchez would
end up missing the season. Considering how Smith was thrown into the fire and
how few weapons the Jets offense had, it was a pretty good job overall by Ryan
to coach this team to a .500 record. Many expected much worse. Smith led a late
fourth-quarter comeback victory Week 1 against Tampa Bay and proved pretty
adept at those fourth-quarter rallies during the season.

Smith played in all 16 games, despite the occasional rumor
Ryan would start someone else with the rookie struggling, and completed 55.8
percent of his passes for 3,046 yards, 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. The
picks were too frequent, but Peyton Manning threw 28 in his rookie year. No. 1
receiver Santonio Holmes was either hurt or ineffective all season. The running
game of Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell proved solid enough, with those two
combining for more than 1,500 yards on the ground. The defense, which Ryan
largely took control of again, was much improved last year. It ranked No. 3
against the rush but only No. 19 in points (24.2 per game) in part because of
all the offensive turnovers.

Key Offseason MovesThe Jets could/should have a new No. 1 quarterback, running
back and receiver this season with the additions of Philadelphia's Michael
Vick, Tennessee's Chris Johnson and Denver's Eric Decker, respectively. Ryan
says there will be competition in camp at quarterback, although Vick admits
it's Smith's job to lose. Vick was pretty effective when healthy last year, but
therein lies the rub. It's unrealistic to expect him to start more than 12
games if he wins the job. Johnson has never rushed for less than 1,077 yards in
a season, but he's a long way from the 2009 2,000-yard version. Decker was the
best receiver on the market, at least until DeSean Jackson was cut free by the Eagles. Decker
had 87 catches for 1,288 yards and 11 scores with the Broncos. New York
re-signed the likes of tight end Jeff Cumberland and kicker Nick Folk. The only
losses of note were Sanchez, Holmes, offensive lineman Austin Howard and
cornerback Antonio Cromartie.

The Jets opened as 4.5-point home favorites at sportsbooks
for Week 1 against Oakland. The total is 39.5 on NFL odds, the lowest of all
the openers. New York hosted the Raiders in Week 14 last year and won 37-27,
the Jets' highest-scoring game of the year. Smith was 16 of 25 for 219 yards
with a touchdown and a pick and rushed five times for 50 yards with a
touchdown. This will be the first time ever the Raiders will be the Jets' home
opening opponent.

Following the Raiders, the Jets play three straight against
the NFC North, with only the Packers a playoff team from a season ago. No team
from that division finished with more
than the Jets' eight wins. There is little question Weeks 5-7 is the toughest
stretch of the season, all against playoff teams. Gang Green didn't play the
Chargers or Broncos last year but gave the Patriots fits in splitting the two
meetings. Facing Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the span of four days is
pretty rough.

Then it's three winnable games heading into the bye -- most
expect the Chiefs to take a step back this season. Buffalo and New York split
last year, while the Jets lost 19-6 at home to the Steelers, managing only 184
yards. Just one playoff foe, the
Patriots, follows the bye so that's when New York really can make hay. The Jets
were blown out at Tennessee, 38-13, last year thanks to four turnovers. It will
be the third time in the past four years that New York closes with Miami. New
York bounced the Fins out of the playoffs with a 20-7 victory at Sun Life Stadium
last year.

NFL Free Picks'Over'
6.5 wins. The question is: Does Ryan play for this year and use Vick as his
starter or for the future and let Smith continue learning on the job? Ryan got
an extension through 2016 last season so he has security. Decker might have
been a product of the system in Denver but still solidly upgrades receiver.
Ditto Johnson in the backfield. Here's saying that Vick wins the job and stays
healthy enough for New York to contend for a wild-card spot.