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INDIA. A severe flood killed over 1.200 people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh in August 2017. In Mumbai (pictured), people who lost their homes were largely left to fend for themselves, receiving little help from authorities. Photo: AFP/Punjit Paranjpe/NTB Scanpix

The report’s findings estimate that an average of almost 14 million* people are at risk of displacement caused by extreme weather every year. Population growth, combined with natural hazards, are the main elements related to this massive displacement.

But displacement numbers can be reduced drastically, the report argues.

About the report

The Global Displacement Risk Model calculates the risk of internal displacement caused by disasters. Its assessments are based on recent figures of people made homeless by disasters.

When displacement is only addressed after the fact, responses are largely limited to humanitarian interventions. The report therefore forecasts future risks so that governments and other actors can better prepare for disasters and prevent displacement.

Most of this displacement being driven by flooding, which is on the rise in a warming world where population growth in has increased exposure.

Although this model calculates the risk of internal displacement, people fleeing disasters are also likely to cross borders.

Who is at risk?

Eight out of the ten countries with the highest risk of internal displacement by disasters and climate change are in southern and south-eastern Asia.

This year, floods killed over 1,200 people on the continent. Millions have fled their homes in India, Nepal and Bangladesh. As global temperatures rise, floods in these countries are likely to displace millions of people in the coming years.

India, regularly burdened with severe flooding, is especially at risk. According to the report, over 2.3 million people are already losing their homes to disasters every year – based on figures of displacement caused by destruction of houses during earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and tropical cyclones in recent years.

The ten countries with highest risk

India

China

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Philippines

Myanmar

Pakistan

Indonesia

Russia

United States

Why they are at risk?

People living in developing countries with high populations are particularly at risk.Poverty and inequality make people more vulnerable to climate change.

Many countries in Asia have numerous densely populated cities, where poor families live close to flood-prone river basins or in coastal areas exposed to cyclones. Small island states in the Caribbean are bearing the most damaging costs of harsh climate, because of their poor infrastructure and coping capacity coupled with a geographically exposed location.

Other large countries, like Russia and the US, could face huge displacement crises caused by an increase in cyclones and floods.

As impacts of climate change becomes more severe, the risk of displacement increase.

How can we prevent further displacement?

Poor construction in areas exposed to extreme weather often destroys homes during storms and floods.

In September 2017, for example, a staggering 40,000 people lost their homes to Hurricane Harvey in the southern US and across central America.

But there’s ways to mitigate the damages. Better urban planning can reduce the number of displaced people. Governments, too, can – and need to – strengthen the resilience of communities and livelihoods so that they are better able to withstand or adapt to the hazards they face.

Simple and low-cost technology like early warning systems can forecast heavy rains and winds. This can help prevent loss of life and damage to infrastructure.

The need to predict the risk and impacts of disaster displacement is an urgent, global priority.

Humanitarian response

Meanwhile, humanitarian organisations are working to inform people exposed to climate hazards on how they can survive through floods and drought.

NRC makes sure that clear, relevant information about climate hazards reaches vulnerable groups, local communities and decision-makers before it is too late. This work could entail, for instance, translating local weather forecasts into local languages and broadcast on the radio.

A step in the right direction

As long as people continue to live in areas with weak infrastructure exposed to hazards like tsunamis, floods and tropical cyclones, huge displacements are likely to continue through at least 2050.