2017 Market Prediction

It strikes me the property market has been showing little sign of activity over the last few years with a steady decline in resale stock coming up for sale.

This is partly due to low interest rates, partly due to the cost of moving and probably partly due to a lack of job security making people stay longer in the same home. There are plenty of other factors too but I suspect these may be up there as prime influences.

But what about 2017? more for sale ? less for sale ?

I am going to make the prediction of a lot more property coming up for sale than we have seen for many years.

Reasons are as follows.

Interest Rates will start to increase albeit not by staggering amounts but this will push some of the reticent to the market.

London market is not going to do anything interesting as prices there have plateaued which in turn will push the Londoners looking for better investment returns outwards towards the home counties, which in turn will push prices up and this will encourage sellers to be more ambitious with their asking price.

There is a back log of First Time Buyers who are coming back into the market and parents are keener than ever to get their children on the property ladder, some will re-mortgage to finance this but I suspect many will use this as a time to downsize.

We have an aging population but many are now giving up their costly larger houses for low maintenance smaller homes and this is now becoming quite trendy to do. Ironically the more new build houses we have coming to market the more of them will be bought by this market sector and not necessarily first time buyers only.

Overall I expect to see an increase of 20% to 40% more property for sale next year.

I think 2017 is going to be a good year, supply slightly higher than this year.

I think we will see strong first-time buyer activity thanks to low-interest rates and low unemployment.

I also think we will see more people able to move as their homes they bought in 2006-2007 start to go into positive equity positions. First time buyers locked in their homes for the last 9 years will be eager to move and likely to be in a position to do so.

Short supply should underpin house prices, and whenever London plateaus I believe people look to cash in their gains and move to outside London areas, supporting key areas.

Some accidental investors will start to bail out of their buy to let homes as tax changes begin to bite. Increasing first time buyer housing supply.

Average estate agency fee’s will drop in my opinion and we will see smaller offices close. The move to a volume model will be required.

I think 2017 is going to be a very tight year and we will see more agents going to the wall (heard rumors a few already are in difficulty).

Soon as article 50 in engaged the market will fall away. Not necessarily in price but in stock levels (as if they could not get any lower).

You will then see more agents valuing high to win the meager instructions and as such not selling them.

I think it will finally be the end of press advertising (hoorah!) but this will in turn lead to an increase of digital advertising and as many agents have little or no concept they will look to copy other agents (who do not know what they are doing) and it will be an ineffective spend.

Interest Rates will stay low and mortgages attainable but without stock its meaningless.

The private rented sector will continue to suffer, landlords will start to see their income reduced with the tax and fee changes. This will lead to higher rents and in time more substandard housing.

Sadly i think the online revolution of sales and lettings will continue. Not because they offer a service but as has been seen time and again they are allowed to dupe investors and movers and get away unchallenged.

As such i think more agents will look at true “proptech” in a chance to reduce head count.

BUT – if you service the next 2 years (the good ones will) i think 2018 is going to be a great year. Corporates will have died or scaled back dramatically, poor agents will have closed and i think onliners will have had their first big scandal exposed and the government will have addressed how harshly they have treated the PRS.

In short, look to diversify, invest in prop tech to resale and start a digital marketing company!