Monday, April 4, 2016

1958 and 1980 AL examples: qualifier for BA lead explored.

This post is an extension of the two previous posts, which were interrupted by two posts to deal with commissioner Manfred, the A-Rod Slayer, going off the rails on player conduct.1958 AL Home Run race. Who "led the league in hitting" ... home runs? Thursday, March 31, 2016In 1958 the batter who "led the league in hitting" was Ted Williams, who had the highest batting average (BA) with .328. But Nellie Fox, White Sox second baseman, had the most hits; Williams was not even in the top ten. So why wasn't Fox regarded as the best hitter? If the best rate or average of something defines the best, then why wasn't Rocky Colavito the Home Run King in 1958, instead of Mickey Mantle. The old phrase "led the league in hitting" has faded but not completely. But looking at HR rate has never taken hold. We still deal with HR as totals.

Today's smarties are into WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a unifying theory. WAR is a total. So, how far have we come?______________________________Qualifying for Batting Average makes no sense. It doesn't use the denominator. Sunday, April 3, 2016Denominator. You know. The bottom of an equation...Rule 9.22(a) Comment: For example, if a Major League schedules162 games for each club, 502 plate appearances qualify(162 times 3.1 equals 502) a player for a batting, slugging oron-base percentage championship...... at bats (AB) as the denominator, NOT plate appearances (PA). It's pretty basic...... qualification should be based on opportunities (AB) or accomplishments (Hits, Total Bases, etc.) or some combination. However, opportunity qualification should NOT be based on PA.
_______________________________

Top ten? Ted Williams was number 19 in Hits and qualified for the BA championship in 1958 with only 517 PA. 154 games multiplied by 3.1 equals a measly 477 PA to qualify. Of the top 19 in Hits in the AL in 1958 Williams had by far the fewest AB (411), which should have been the qualifier and the required number of AB should have been a lot more than 411.

1958

nameFirst

nameLast

teamID

AB

H

HR

BA

HRrate

PA

Nellie

Fox

CHA

623

187

0

.300

#Div/0!

698

Frank

Malzone

BOS

627

185

15

.295

41.8

672

Pete

Runnels

BOS

568

183

8

.322

71.0

666

Harvey

Kuenn

DET

561

179

8

.319

70.1

619

Al

Kaline

DET

543

170

16

.313

33.9

607

Minnie

Minoso

CLE

556

168

24

.302

23.2

638

Frank

Bolling

DET

610

164

14

.269

43.6

681

Roy

Sievers

WS1

550

162

39

.295

14.1

614

Mickey

Mantle

NYA

519

158

42

.304

12.4

654

Bob

Cerv

KC1

515

157

38

.305

13.6

572

Jackie

Jensen

BOS

548

157

35

.286

15.7

655

Rocky

Colavito

CLE

489

148

41

.303

11.9

578

Luis

Aparicio

CHA

557

148

2

.266

278.5

604

Tony

Kubek

NYA

559

148

2

.265

279.5

597

Hector

Lopez

KC1

564

147

17

.261

33.2

631

Albie

Pearson

WS1

530

146

3

.275

176.7

610

Jim

Landis

CHA

523

145

15

.277

34.9

593

Norm

Siebern

NYA

460

138

14

.300

32.9

533

Ted

Williams

BOS

411

135

26

.328

15.8

517

So by any common sense or fairness standard Ted Williams should not have qualified for the lead in BA or Slugging average. Lets see what might have made sense.Pete Runnels was in his first season on the Boston Red Sox and a teammate of Williams. Officially, Runnels finished 1958 with the second highest BA. Runnels had 568 AB and 666 PA, numbers which dwarfed those of Williams. Runnels should have been considered the BA champion and the "league's leading hitter" using the logic and parlance of the time. Runnels would go on to have the highest AL BA in 1960 and 1962. Runnels played for three teams with these AB and BA:
Washington: 3,817 .274
Boston: 3,004 .320
Houston: 508 .246

George Brett is considered to have the highest BA since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. In 1990 Brett hit .390 but in only 515 PA and 449 AB. Brett played in 117 of 162 games. That's ridiculous. Cecil Cooper batted .352 in 687 PA, 622 AB, 153 games. However, Brett had 175 Hits, more than one per scheduled game. Brett was tied for number 15 in Hits.

1980

nameFirst

nameLast

teamID

AB

H

HR

BA

HRrate

PA

Willie

Wilson

KCA

705

230

3

.326

235.0

745

Cecil

Cooper

ML4

622

219

25

.352

24.9

678

Mickey

Rivers

TEX

630

210

7

.333

90.0

661

Al

Oliver

TEX

656

209

19

.319

34.5

709

Al

Bumbry

BAL

645

205

9

.318

71.7

738

Eddie

Murray

BAL

621

186

32

.300

19.4

683

Miguel

Dilone

CLE

528

180

0

.341

#Div/0!

566

Ben

Oglivie

ML4

592

180

41

.304

14.4

660

Rick

Burleson

BOS

644

179

8

.278

80.5

718

Rod

Carew

CAL

540

179

3

.331

180.0

612

Rickey

Henderson

OAK

591

179

9

.303

65.7

722

Robin

Yount

ML4

611

179

23

.293

26.6

647

Mike

Hargrove

CLE

589

179

11

.304

53.5

720

Ken

Singleton

BAL

583

177

24

.304

24.3

680

Tony

Armas

OAK

628

175

35

.279

17.9

666

George

Brett

KCA

449

175

24

.390

18.7

515

1. Opportunities: The denominator should be used in any average stat. That's basic common sense. BA = Hits/AB. Let's consider the low threshold of 3.1 per game. That's applied to PA and it yields a threshold that's ridiculously low. In 154 games it would be 477 PA. I would use 500 AB even for 154 games and higher for 162.

2. Accomplishment: Looking at the 1958 table above Rocky Colavito had a lot more Hits (148) and AB (489) than Williams. But using only opportunities as the qualifier, Colavito would not be considered. What if we used the number of Hits, maybe the top 10 or 15? Maybe that in conjunction with AB? Maybe Hits relative to scheduled games.

I'd lean towards the top 15 in Hits. Using PA makes no sense. It's just lazy thinking that's a holdover from long ago when they simplified things by having the same standard for a bunch of average stats, some of which they incorrectly called percentages, such as On Base Percentage (OBP), which not show as a percentage but as an average. It's just lazy.