Overall, probably the most accurate draft that I've seen here. Though I don't like some of the picks personally, it reflects very well the current rising and falling of prospects on the draft board. :rocker:

"The draft board I have for New England at this spot reads, in no particular order: DE/OLB Manny Lawson, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter, CB Tye Hill, CB Richard Marshall, RB DeAngelo Williams, RB Laurence Maroney, WR Santonio Holmes, and WR Chad Jackson. If one or more of these players is still available at #21, then the Patriots will likely select from among them. If one of them is not available, then the Patriots could trade back into the late first round (for instance, if Indianapolis wants to get Maroney before Denver's pick) and still come away with a solid playmaker.

But for New England's choice among these players, let's take a look at each of them in turn:

*I had Lawson slated here in earlier mock drafts, to come in and be the "understudy" and eventual heir to Willie McGinest, but with McGinest now in Cleveland, the pressure on Lawson to come in and replace McGinest could gnarl his much-needed development. Lawson still seems very raw to me and not an immediate-impact defender, at least in the Patriots' scheme. He is also much more like Rosevelt Colvin than he is McGinest.
*I also had Greenway slated here in recent mock drafts because I think he is a phenomenal fundamental tackler. But he is falling on many draft boards because he has trouble disengaging from bigger blockers, something he would have to do a lot of in New England.
Carpenter is a versatile linebacker, able and experienced at rush end, inside linebacker, and outside linebacker. He seems like a perfect fit in New England, but he also seems like a second round pick because he does everything well but nothing exceptionally. First round picks should be reserved for the truly special athletes and as much as I like Carpenter, he is not in that elite category. Again, I hope the Patriots can swing a trade back in the round to take either Carpenter or Marshall (more on him in a moment) and maximize value for an otherwise solid player.
*The Patriots have good corners in Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Randall Gay, and potentially strong challengers in reclamation projects Chad Scott and Eric Warfield. But they could use a shut-down corner. Tye Hill may be that good, although I think his top-of-the-class 40-time from the Combine will elevate his stock and he will be off the board before #21.
The other end of the spectrum is Richard Marshall, a player who seems ideal for the Patriots with his Pat Hill-Fresno State pedigree, superior 40-time (4.41), and strong tackling technique (his stance is more similar to a linebacker's and he gets low and centered on his hits). But Marshall is in need of polishing and is not as good as Ty Law was when Law was selected in almost this exact spot in the draft. The Patriots could trade back and still land Marshall. (One side note: Marshall's ability to return interceptions for touchdowns reminds me of (dare I say it?) Otis Smith.)
*I think if DeAngelo Williams slips this far, then the Patriots would take him, because he presents just too much value. It would be similar to when Vince Wilfork fell to the Patriots a couple of drafts ago. But I expect Williams to go higher. However, if Williams gets past Cleveland on draft day (say, for instance, if Ngata slips, the Browns would grab the big DT ahead of Williams), then I will be holding my breath with each following pick because Williams could be on his way to #21.
*I am not certain that Maroney represents top value at this spot. He would be a great scoring threat and having Corey Dillon ahead of him would give Maroney time to bulk-up his lean frame to take the NFL pounding (Maroney split most of his time in college). In the right system, like Denver's, Maroney could have bigger immediate impact than he would with New England. A few years ago, the Patriots took a chance on a fourth round RB in Cedric Cobbs and he did not work out, but (unless Williams falls #21) I think the Patriots may try that route again this year with Jerrious Norwood or Gerald Riggs in later rounds.
*Then there are the wide receivers. After looking at some film of him play, I am surprised to say that Chad Jackson would be a very good fit in New England. He excelled in short and intermediate routes in college, which are a staple of the New England offense, and he showed he could make a variety of catches. Somewhat like with Williams (although Jackson is not as good a receiver as the Memphis back is a runner), I think the Patriots would quickly take Jackson if he were still around at #21. But again, I think his 40-time elevated him into loftier spots.
*That leaves Holmes and as I have said before, he has the best route running in the draft, probably by far. That is a skill that could take years to learn after entering the pros and he already has it down. He reminds me of Eric Moulds when I see him play. Holmes has deep speed plus he is extremely explosive with his first step once he catches the ball. He can burn a defender even when the defender is draped on him. After Jackson and Holmes, the draft is filled with question marks at receiver. The Patriots may take an additional receiver later in the draft (Michigan's Jason Avant and Miami of Ohio's Martin Nance are two of my favorite "sleepers"), but landing Holmes would instantly upgrade the offense and give Tom Brady a needed weapon in the passing game."

I think it's a solid mock. One of the best I've seen. The fact that I dont like the Holmes pick is a shallow criticism, given that I agree with all the thinking, including the Carpenter, Marshall, Lawson assessments...

A few criticisms:
(1) if Lawson is on the draft board, I think some consideration has to be given to Kiwi and Wimbley too. But the same weaknesses apply: we need to wait for them to learn the position they'll be playing. It probably means their entire rookie year.

(2) No mention in the writeup whether Tye Hill has the physical game that BB would be looking for. Gay, Hobbs, Samuel are all good in run support and can take a TE down in the open field or pop a receiver on the crossing route. Hill comes across as more a speed cover guy.

(3) Holmes might be a fit, need wise, but the personality question is insurmountable for the Pats. If we draft an elite WR, but he doesn't fit in the lockerroom, he's going to be on the outs within a year or two, and then we STILL dont have an elite WR.

(4) Kiper has Greenway off the board to the Rams at #11, and although I dont think it'll be the Rams, I agree with Mel that top-20 is the right zone for Chad. His Combine wasn't so good, but his individual workout more than made up for it. Plus, his game tape is phenomenal. He wont last to the Giants, and the Pats for certain wouldn't pass on him. BB has been looking in vain for a starting LB for the last five years, with no prospects that fit his scheme and his mental makeup. Finally one drops to him, and he chooses a risky WR?

(5) I dont think that Carpenter is a reach at #21 if he projects as a rookie starter... which he does. If we dont take him at 21, he could go to the Giants (25), Panthers (27), Jags (28), Jets (29), Steelers (32)... in otherwords, if we like him, we're in the perfect position to make sure of him. Reminds me of Mankins, who was a 3rd rounder on some boards; but we take him at our pick, and he's an immediate starter. Does that makes him a reach?

So am I supposed to feel better that it isn't my mock, or that you bashed a good buddy of mine who, IMO, really does his homework.

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easy Murphy--I don't see any bashing in my post--I offered a beer challenge that the picks were inaccurate

as to who's mock it is--just clarifying that it isn't yours

i have been a draft junkie for years and have never offered a mock--they are fun to read, but after the first 5~10 picks, no mock does better than ~30% in round 1...so when someone offers a mock draft for everyone, they have to be prepared for commentary--positive, negative, sarcastic, derisive, whatever. so let me re-phrase my previous post as such: wow--whoever did this mock put in a lot of time and effort--if it was not you, please pass that message along. furthermore, while diligence appears to have been performed, i am dubious as to the veracity and accuracy of the assumptions and conclusions. i would wager fine ales that the outcome of the actual draft will be unfavorable in comparison to this mock...

Murph, great mock! I trust we'll see you at Murphy's Pub on draft day? Big Dave and I will be there, draft guides in hand. May even bring my 1 yr old to teach her how manage the whole value pick thing.

i would wager fine ales that the outcome of the actual draft will be unfavorable in comparison to this mock...

fair play...good on you...good show... :singing:

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That's more like it! No, seriously, if it were my mock, I would have little problem with any criticism - I've done them in the past and gotten 4-5 picks correct (out of 32), they are hard to predict.

[b}Bostonian[/b] - bum deal on the pub this year, many of us regulars are attending a wedding in Newport, RI on April 29th (can you believe that crap?!). Expect a very low turn-out for Draft Day at the pub.