Current optimism belies deeper concerns over US withdrawals from Iraq

Statements by Michael Bauer

The US is confident that Iraqi
security forces are ready to take over responsibility for the country's
cities when American troops pull back to surrounding areas. But some
military and political concerns remain.

The date June 30,
2009 may just be another in the continuing struggle for normalcy in
Iraq but it could prove to be one of the most significant of the
country's recent, blighted history. On that day, US troops pull back
from Iraqi cities, leaving Iraqi forces to take over control for
security operations in urban areas. The Americans believe Iraq is ready
for such a responsibility but unsurprisingly there are concerns.

"From a military and
security standpoint it's time for us to move out of the cities,"
General Ray Odierno, the general in charge of US-led coalition forces
told CNN on Sunday. "As for the Iraqis, I do believe they are ready,"
Odierno added. "They've been working towards this for a long time.
Security remains good; we've seen constant improvement in the security
forces, constant improvement in governance. I believe this is the time
for them to take ultimate responsibility."

US troops have been
pulling out of Iraq's cities before Tuesday's deadline as part of a
staged withdrawal over the last eight months and "overall stability in
Iraq remains good," General Odierno said.

Iraqi parliamentarians show confidence in home army

This feeling of
optimism is shared by many Iraqi parliamentarians. Liberal Shiite
representative Ayad Jamaleldin told Deutsche Welle that despite the
continuing fragility of the war-torn country, he was confident that the
Iraqi armed forces would be able to protect the country's citizens.

"Of course, the Iraqi
armed forces are in a position to guarantee the security of the
cities," he said. "They are even more effective than the multinational
troops, because they can identify the different factions faster and
better. In addition, they are more knowledgeable and better suited to
deal with geographical factors."

Sunni representative
Shadha al Abussi agreed. "We have much confidence in our own troops,"
he told DW. "I believe, if each citizen could contribute to the control
of the situation in Iraq, we could record even greater successes."

Iraqi security
services say they will meet the US withdrawal with their biggest
deployment of troops and policemen in the six years since the US-led
invasion of the country. Some 120,000 additional soldiers and police
will be deployed to Baghdad alone, and thousands of others will be
deployed to other cities.

Despite a spasm of
violence including bombings that have killed more than 100 people this
month alone, US President Barack Obama and his military are committed
to their end-June withdrawal of American troops from Iraq's urban areas
as part of a move from a war-like to a diplomatic footing with Baghdad.

The retreat is in
line with last November's Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which set
out a timetable for a complete US troop withdrawal from Iraq by 2011.

US troops to remain "on call"

Nonetheless, analysts
said the withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraqi cities will be less
dramatic than it seems because the military, while less visible, can
still intervene if Iraqi security forces appeal for help.

US forces will "still
be conducting significant operations outside of the cities, in the
belts of the major cities, and I still believe this will enable us to
maintain the current security and stability situation here in Iraq,"
Odierno said.

US soldiers will
continue to patrol the most conflict-ridden districts of the country
outside the cities at the invitation of the Iraqi government and patrol
borders. A few will remain in Iraqi cities in an advisory capacity.

Fears over renewed instability in potential power vacuum

Despite continued US
military support, at least for now, the recent bomb attacks and
on-going unrest between Arab nationalists and Kurds in the northern
city of Mosul have raised concerns about an increase in violence in
line with a reduction in US and allied involvement.

General Odierno
blamed the recent attacks on "fractured extremist elements" and
suggested that the bombings and unrest were designed to sow the seeds
of doubt ahead of the US withdrawal.

"They're trying to
use this time frame and this (pullout) date to first gain attention for
themselves and also to divert attention from the success of the Iraqi
security forces," he said, adding that the recent spike in attacks was
not a sign of a broader increase of violence across the country.

EU involvement in Iraq at the mercy of US plans

The Iraqis and those
concerned citizens in regional neighboring countries are not the only
ones whose future could be cast into doubt by the partial US pull-out
and then its final withdrawal.

Michael Bauer, a
Middle East expert at the Center for Applied Policy Research in Munich,
believes the Europeans involved in Iraq have much to lose if the US
withdrawal leads to an increase in violence.

"Individually,
European countries like Germany and France have been unwilling to
engage in Iraq but the EU plays a large, important role in non-direct
engagement," he told Deutsche Welle. "The EU is the main financial
contributor to UN and World Bank projects there, it is involved in an
energy dialogue and has recently upgraded its technical and
co-operation agreement with Iraq into a partnership.

"The EU knows it can
play a strong role in advancing administrative and electoral reforms,"
Bauer added. "These are its specific strengths and the EU can help the
government through this."

However, Bauer said,
if the US withdrawal leads to anarchy and civil war, the Europeans will
be in no position to address the violence.

"These latest attacks
are attempts by insurgents to stir up new sectarian violence and
destabilize the country," Bauer said. "This was in some ways expected
but what is in question is whether the Iraqis can govern through this
and whether their army can provide protection when the Americans go. If
not, all the EU initiatives in Iraq will be at risk."

A self-sufficient Iraq would welcome more EU aid

The US withdrawal could also lead to an increased effort by the EU if stability and security is maintained.

"The Europeans could
step up and play a stronger role by expanding on their specific
strengths once the Americans are gone," Bauer said. "This could help
Iraq's full transition and also help the stability of the region as the
EU has good diplomatic ties with many of the Arab states and to a
certain degree, Iran. If Iraq can govern and protect itself, the EU
could become a strong political and diplomatic partner."