This blog discusses current weather, weather prediction, climate issues, and other topics

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Two Snowstorms Down. The Big One Maybe Yet to Come!

Update Sunday: I will give an updated forecast at 10:30 AM. Waiting for the new model runs. Very difficult forecast. Minor snowstorm later today (definite) but a complicated, major mess tomorrow.
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The current snow event is nearly over and it appears that the forecast models did an excellent job.

Here are some of the latest snow accumulations from the National Weather Service (reported at 4:47 AM), noting that many of the reports were made before the storm was over. My house in NE Seattle had 4 inches. The range of snow was roughly 3 to 8 inches--very consistent with the forecasts. And there have been some extreme snowfalls, including a reported 21 inches near Port Angeles.

Peter Benda's House in Bellevue had 8 inches

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Seattle WA

447 AM PST Sat Feb 9 2019

Location Amount Time/Date

..King County...

2 E Renton 8.0 in 1110 PM 02/08

Seatac 7.2 in 0400 AM 02/09

Vashon Island 6.5 in 1005 PM 02/08

Normandy Park 5.5 in 0415 AM 02/09

Seatac 5.5 in 0330 AM 02/09

Kirkland 5.0 in 1110 PM 02/08

Bellevue 4.5 in 1047 PM 02/08

1 N Seattle 3.9 in 0130 AM 02/09

4 NNE Seattle 2.5 in 0400 AM 02/09

..Pierce County...

Puyallup 8.0 in 0906 PM 02/08

Bonney Lake 7.3 in 1025 PM 02/08

University Place 6.0 in 1130 PM 02/08

Tacoma 5.0 in 1002 PM 02/08

..Snohomish County...

Everett 6.5 in 1115 PM 02/08

Smokey Point 5.0 in 0836 PM 02/08

Mountlake Terrace 4.0 in 0100 AM 02/09

..Thurston County...

Olympia 5.5 in 0839 PM 02/08

The snowstorm followed the two steps I described in my previous blog. The snow started just after noon, associated with the upward motion of an approaching upper-level trough. Then there was a pause during the late afternoon. Later during the evening a low center moved south along the WA coast and rotated moisture above a shallow cool, northerly flow, resulting in extended light snow. Temperatures were on the edge, so folks next to the water had a bit less snow.

Now we have to look forward, and there is a lot of wind, snow, and cold ahead. First, wind and cold. Extremely strong northeasterly winds are pouring through the Fraser River gap northeast of Bellingham, with wind of 60-70 mph in places. The San Juans are being hit very hard. Wind chills are now below zero F in some locations and will decline further. This is dangerous stuff.

And the cold air will flood western WA today, resulting in the low temperatures tonight, plummeting to the teens in many locations of western WA. Protect your plants, pets, and home.

Oh yes, there is the issue of more snowstorms. The cold air will remain in placs and a series of disturbances will approach, providing the moisture.

The snow 24-h snow forecast ending 4 AM Sunday, show little over Puget Sound, but continued snow over the northern side of the Olympics. There is LOTS of snow over southern Oregon and northern CA as the low moves southward.

During he next 24 h, a weak system will move down the coast, bringing another pulse of snow, mainly from Seattle down into southwest WA. Lots in the Oregon Cascades (where it is really needed). Maybe an inch or two more in Seattle.

But then we must talk about the Big Kahuna of snow, comeing in early Tuesday, with a deep low center EXACTLY where it needs to be to give us snow (see sea level pressure forecast for 4 AM Tuesday). Any Northwest meteorologists knows what this means.

The snow total forecast for the 24hr ending 4 PM Tuesday is scary, with 8-12 inches of new snow coming into Puget Sound. HUGE amounts on the Oregon Cascades...we are talking FEET of snow.

Should we worry about this? Yes.

Let's check another modeling system: the ensembles of the vaunted European Center model. Below are the forecasts of all 51 members for the accumulated precipitation at Sea-Tac Airport starting 4 PM Friday. You see our current snowstorm (light blue colors, 3-5 inches), the Sunday event, darkening to around 5-7 inches, and then the Tuesday event, moving to the reds ( 10-16 inches).

MOST of the ensemble members are going for this...suggesting a lot of confidence in the forecast. The average of the ensembles indicates an increase from about 4 inches from the present storm (very reasonable) to about 11 inches on Tuesday.

Keep in mind this is accumulated SNOWFALL. Accumulation is different and usually less than total snowfall (snow can melt, be compressed, or the snow can be more dense if wet).

I am not going to suggest running out to the supermarkets, considering the bedlam that occurred before the current event. The U-Village QFC was stripped. Some folks bought enough food for a month! But I was really impressed how much they restocked by the next day. Eat the stuff buried in your freezer. 😊

139 comments:

It's been extremely windy since about 10pm last night here in Victoria. Really impressed with how long these high winds have lasted. Only about an inch of snow though that fell around noon yesterday. Not a flake since, and it looks like we miss out again next week. I'm not a snow lover, but if it's going to be this cold, might as well have some snow!

I was a little skeptical last night when Metro announced it would activate its Emergency Snow Network (first time ever!), but waking up Saturday morning it's clear they made the right choice. At this point, with more snow (and more and more!), I wonder how many days it will be until Metro and SDOT can return to "normal".

Just a few flakes here at Crater Lake, Oregon...(KIDDING!!!). Crater Lake will get buried with these storms. Wizard Island will do a disappearing act. Ashland, Or., home of America's largest regional theatre, the Oregon Shakespeare Festival, is getting an unusual amount of snow. That's to counterbalance the horrible summer smoke of the last two years and the massive losses at the box office that the smoke engendered.

I may be wrong but in 2008 we had a huge snowstorm that brought 12 inches or so and in 2001 we had like a foot in April the temperatures were not this low though and I dont believe it lasted this long about 3 years ago we had some snow with pretty cold temperatures as well I think this is a 10 year thing.

I don't know where this measurement for five inches in Tacoma is taking place but I legit have 8.5 at my house right now. I'm up the hill away from the water. Just shows how much variability there is in accumulation even locally.

Thank you for keeping us informed, Cliff, even when we’re short-sighted and ungrateful. People who felt misled yesterday have hopefully been reminded of the following: weather forecasting is very difficult (for anyone) and the exact timing of things can always change. But when cold air and abundant moisture are present, be prepared. Simple as that...doesn’t mean it’s all going to happen exactly as predicted...but be ready for whatever and watch what happens. From what you’ve pulled together in this latest post, it looks like we could be in for a wild ride the next few days. Stay safe everybody, and embrace the uncertainty as best you can.

Thank you Cliff, you are a valued voice in the PNW. Port Townsend Cape George on the Discovery bay side has about 10 inches. Trees are heavy leaden with snow and the hummingbirds are thankful for food. Keep updating. We look forward to every post.

In upper Queen Anne, we had about 4" during the day yesterday. After shoveling the stairs at 5pm, and some people were complaining on social media that this snow storm was another false alarm, we got 5 more inches.

I'm hoping there's not too much snowmelt tomorrow caused by the sunbreaks. It's just going to refreeze tomorrow night, and make a mess of things for the Monday commute. (Though I may end up teleworking.)

Woke up to 7 1/2 inches of NEW snow here on Lea Hill. We've got a lot more in total though thanks to last monday's storm. City is doing a good job of clearing major roads though, but our neighborhood is buried!

And the wind...it REALLY picked up this morning roughly 8am. We have blowing snow and occasional white-out conditions here. Very pretty, but very out of character for here. Same story as monday, blowing snow.

There's an excellent chance that this February will be the snowiest on record at Sea-Tac,topping the 13.1" that fell in 1949.By month's end, the total may only be surpassed by the 35.4" in 1916,and 30.5" in 1893.

Definitely 10+ in West Oly...family near SPSCC in Tumwater had over 12". We had 3" Monday, and the forecast from Cliff says maybe another 4" Sunday pm and ANOTHER 10+" by Tues PM. Pretty gnarly situation down here. At least power was restored quickly for most this afternoon.

I recall something similar in about 2007, during which we had nearly a week of alternating snow and freezing days. As I recall, the first snow was forecast well in advance, but the subsequent snowfall was not. The City of Seattle chose to deal w/ the first snow by ignoring it, a big mistake that Seattle never recovered from until nature fixed the problem. Mayor Greg Nickles never recovered, especially when it was learned that what snowplows were in service were in service in Hizzoner's neighborhood.

Fear is never a way to go about your life. Prior Proper Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance. Remember the 7 P's. Next year expect more of the same folks, as we descend into Sun dormancy. I'm sure the MSM will say this will be again the hottest year on record though!

Sadly, this shows a complete misunderstanding of energy budget. This is not a cooling of the air in place over Washington and Oregon. This is the forceful expulsion of heavy (cold) airmass from arctic regions southward. That takes significant energy. The moisture in the warmer airmass it is hitting cane from solar energy, and moving that took even more. If the sun were becoming more dormant, we would see a gradual cooling worldwide and a decrease in precipitation events. Instead, these energetic effects are completely different. Yes - this is an indication of increasing energy budget, as media and science have all reported.

So far, in the lowlands of Whatcom County the only thing that's come down from above has been tree branches. And zero degree wind chills. Cliff, what are the chances of any of the storms trending a bit northward and Bellingham getting in on any snow before the pattern returns to normal?

In the Sisco Heights area of Arlington (5 miles SE of downtown Arlington) at 535 feet of elevation, we received 11 inches total by Monday, and another five inches on Friday. So far it has not snowed on Saturday, as of 1150 hours.

Interesting comments. Amazing how the brain is set up to have no real memory of pain. We have lived northeast of Everett in the foothills between Arlington and Darrington for over 30 years.

I can remember bracing the ceiling/roof beams of an older mobile home when we got thigh-deep snow, shoveling snow off the roof while it was doing its best to accumulate, clearing critical access paths outside etc. until we were too exhausted to continue, only to start up again the next day. Younger and healthier then.

We lived in an area that used to regularly get over 100" annually. We moved 6 miles west about 25 years ago. New location was significantly warmer with only 60" - 80" of precipitation.

It is all local. If we want even more warmth and sunshine, we can drive 5 miles west (out of the foothills and dropping several 100 ft in elevation).

More snow? Yee-Haw! We'll hunker down. We should have everything set for the coming storms, and enjoying the pristine white views outside our windows, only emerging as needed to feed our small band of cows, visit neighbors, clean up wind-thrown branches, . . .

We're suffering relentless & highly dangerous winds in north Whatcom County. In nearly 24 years here, I can't recall winds this fierce and steady. It's interesting to here reports from elsewhere, because it sounds entirely different from our reality. My sister in Enumclaw has 18 inches of snow (some from last weekend), for example. We have no snow, extremely low humidity, and the air is a hazy yellow-brown as top soil is blown off surrounding farmland. Current midday real feel of 9 degrees, and the wind just keeps coming.

I just keep reading your blog, and watch to see how long it takes NOAA forecasters to catch up. Our Bainbridge house (mid-island, east side of highway) got 7" in the last 24 hours, 10" total for the week. Hoping we keep power despite the winds and snow-laden trees!

South BI here. Having no power most of the day Sat pretty much sucked. I’m hoping that we have power still Mon-Tues, and so on. We seem to be 20x more susceptible to power outages due to vegetation and trees even with the slightest bit of snow, wind, or massive rainfall.

As predicted, there was very little snow here in Bellingham near the airport. But also as predicted, the winds have been very intense. Ferndale CW3375, which is a few miles north of the airport, seems to get it the worst with a couple of peak gusts at 71 mph at 9 am. I cannot quite tell if the winds are easing slightly. Barometer has been rising since about 6 am.

These are the most intense winds this season for my immediate locality near the airport, which seems to be the most concentrated funnel point for northeast outflows. We have not lost power, but there was a 1 second flicker around 9 am that caused clocks to reset.

I am also wondering how intense the cold will be with the latest Fraser River outflow. Temperatures to the north which is the source of the cold air do not appear as low as previously.

I am always surprised to see so many expressions of hopes, wishes, and desires for snow (the TV newscaster "White Christmas Syndrome"). I, for one, am not eager to see a bunch of lowland snow, but whatever it is that I or anyone else wants, makes little difference.

No disrespect intended, folks, but if you want to see serious snow, type in to your phone or computer, The blizzard of 78 in the northeast. Now thats a blizzard. It brought the northeast to a halt for 2 weeks, go ahead, check it out.

Dr. Mass, thank you for your excellent weather reporting!I live on the Cedar River, and this is starting to shape up a bit like 2009, when there was a foot or so of snow in the lowlands and we were hit by a "pineapple express" atmospheric river from Hawaii. River managers did not see this coming and failed to run the Masonry Dam outlet harder in order to mitigate the spillway event that exacerbated flooding along the Cedar. What are your thoughts on the likelihood of a 1-2 cold/warm punch, and is it time to alert river managers to increase flows?Thank you again for all you do!

"My wife and I were talking this morning and were wondering, has there ever been a stretch of back to back to back snow storms like this in Seattle or is this pretty unprecedented?"

I remember December 2008 having a very similar pattern, with a string of back-to-back storms dumping sometimes significant amounts. Looking back at my posts from that time, we had snow on the 14th, 17th-18th, 20th-21st (which included some freezing rain), and 24th. At our place in Tumwater, we got over 18 inches total that month.

Unknown - Yes, December 2008 had multiple snowstorms over a few weeks and REALLY cold temperatures. January 2012 had a couple of snowstorms and an ice storm mixed in. I'm in south Snohomish County and I'd rank both of those past events as much worse than the current one, at least so far.

Isnt that the year the tour bus went down a hill in Seattle with pedestrians screaming and waving to stop. They ended up going right over the highway guardrails and were dangling with poor visitors thinking they were going splat on I5? Man, that bus just balanced there. What a sight

[Monroe/Woods Creek] My concern now is the freeze predicted for tonight. It's been around 36-37 degrees all morning and into this afternoon, just now starting to cool down to 33-34. We're having a little bit of melt on the relatively low accumulation here. I saw KOMO's website predicting a low of 15 degrees IN SEATTLE tonight. Given that we're almost always colder than their forecasts out here, it makes me wonder if we might see single digits tonight.

For us, that means several potential disasters: First, what's melting now will definitely freeze again, which means virtually everything is going to be a sheet of ice tomorrow morning. Second, while our ducks are good in sub-freezing temperatures, I don't know how they'll do in single-digits. They have a good enclosed shelter, but even that can get too cold. And third, our plants, even covered in plastic and burlap, might not survive. We have sapling apple trees that we're worried might be killed off by this cold.

Not much we can do about it at this point. I'm just hoping things don't get too much worse. I'll take the snow no problem, but the extreme cold is likely to be the bigger problem here.

Thanks for all the forecast illumination, Cliff. I would not have been prepared as well as I am without it.

It continues to snow here on Bell Hill near Sequim (1000' elevation) and the new snow is over 22" now on my formally bare deck, with measurements on ground (that wasn't cleared from the last storm) hitting 27-28".

It's too deep for my Labs to break through. Only way to get around is snowshoes -- breaking a trail for the dogs.

And now we have Sunday and then a huge Tuesday storm to look forward to. We've had enough already.

Overall, at the south end of Lopez Island, we have gotten an inch or so. But the winds since last night have been almost as bad as they were Sunday/Monday. Our wind chill temperatures are a little warmer than they were....so 16 instead of 6.

The big problem for me is I can’t get out of my driveway. The average slope is 22%, with the switchbacks exceeding 30%. Even with an inch of snow, I cannot maintain momentum to get past the 2nd switchback. I have ordered chains, but am not sure if UPS will get them to my mailbox. I do have enough food for 10-12 days before i start eating pasta....

We got 5-6 inches in the Mount Baker neighborhood of Seattle and we are very close to lake level. Don't put off clearing a path from your front door. We're used to snow melting the next day, but this will be dangerous! Help your neighbors out too!

Thank you once again, Cliff. I think I speak for a lot of people when I say I appreciate how much time you spend breaking down the science and data for us. I always learn a lot. And I believe we make better decisions based on your insights.

I am recalling the awful (for us - due to gutter malfunction) December 1996- January97 stretch of heavy snow, collapsing roofs - especially at marinas, and the eventual sliding bluffs that were laden with snow and then rain into February. That is the one snow season I would hate to repeat. But otherwise, bring it on!

The Bow weather-reporting rock-on-a-string hangs limp and frosty with a 2 inches of snow on it. The forecasts suggest we will not see quite so much snow and action as further south does - during this next go around.

Probably a good thing because this flimsy snow shovel only has about one more shot at it and I doubt there are any left for sale anywhere near!

We had about 2 inches here in the "highlands" of Jacksonville OR (elev 1820), and just above us the snow depth increases markedly. In Medford there has been just about zero - barely a trace. The hills around the Rogue Valley are blanketed in white and it is a beautiful sight.

How do our recent arrivals from San Diego take all this in? The U.S.S. Carl Vinson recently changed its homeport to Bremerton. The two times that I moved from Southern California were memorable for sub-freezing temps. (9 degrees in Pensacola, FL in December 1962, and 16 degrees in Kitsap County in December 1990)

So looking at the Weather Underground App on my phone just now I see snow icons on the majority of days for the next 10 days. As pointed out other. Each one an opportunity for a really nice dump even if the currently forecasted amounts change. This pattern is potentially very annoying. As a person who grew up in a cold climate I would suggest folks be diligent about clearing their driveways and walks. Here we can usually get away with waiting for the rain to wash it all way. However with a pattern of cold nights and above freezing days sets us up for freezing the ruts in our driveway into ice chutes that take major effort to break up and will persist for a long time after the roads are passable.

Another thing that comes to mind is that all the talk of humanity killing Boreas has irritated him. He seems to want to show us that he has teeth still. We might start thinking about what offerings will appease his wrath. It may be wise to cover all our bases!! I have some left over carrots in the ground!

600 foot elevation just west of Sequim Wa. Measuring 23 inches in the middle of the yard. No wind and snow was light the last 4 or 5 hours and has now stopped and skies have lightened, sun peaking through the trees. Now comes the cold.

The post office is struggling to run the mail at all. At the P&DC, some mail for some areas was not run at all. There were a lot of call-ins. This is on top of there already being a shortage of workers.

Another big snow event would be devestating. It's going to be a rough week and it will be a struggle to process all the mail.

Okay sometimes I'm easily distracted...the produce trays need cleaning! Secondarily, I have about 8" on the ground SSW of Chehalis ~1200. If this pans out I should have 2' on the ground by next weekend. The closest recently was the ice storm of 2009. I had about 18" of snow then the ice storm hit. 30F and hours and hours of freezing drizzle. I went outside that evening and the branches falling from the 100' + trees sounded like gun shots then the thud as hundreds if no over a thousand pounds of tree branches laden with snow capped by a 1/2 or better layer of ice. It was unbelievably loud. I lost over a dozen apple and cherry trees that had been grown in the same orchards for over a century.

We are in pasco right now ( sat at(3:47) it's like a blizzard that won't stop I've never seen anything like it 4 to 5 ft drifts in our yard. Blowing snow with white out conditions started around 7 this morning and at that time we already had 6-8 " no telling how much we have now. We work and live on the west side during the week, not sure if we will be able to travel back home to arlington tomorrow. I've never seen such a crazy storm. Very high winds here!

We've had a (2) day TOTAL of 7" here in Downtown Greenbank ( Central Whidbey Island ). WA-DOT is doing a GR8 job of plowing & sanding SR 525 / SR 20. And... Island County is doing the same for the MAIN side roads. Our USPO has ground to a halt tho' = vis-a-vis deliveries.

This BIG KAHUNA Cliff sez is headin' our way next week should prove to be more than "interesting" for us on our isle - and the region !

KUDOS to U Cliff for ALL of your stalwart efforts on "OUR" behalf - as well as your rational take on weather forecasts - & - "global warming". Even when you have been "at odds" with the Seattle Times - & - others in the scientific community !

So...All the forcasts for here (Tacoma) show a few inches Sunday night, but no accumulation for Tuesday, yet that radar you have clearly shows 8 to 12 inches in this area. Why are all the other weather reporting outlets not seeing this? Thoughts? I hope you are right over them, I love snow events.

Runs on groceries ... thanks to media hype! I realize the municipalities lack adequate snow equipment, and we have "hills", but I do a face-palm during these "big" events. But I grew up in Buffalo NY, and lived in the BC/Alberta interior for a time where we could regularly expect at least a week of -30F. Anyone here who's lived in Minnesota, et al is just ROFL. Some of the old timers from here tell me Green Lake used to freeze over on a regular basis in the winter - and that would take quite a cold spell! Buck up, people!

The Skykomish River Valley around Sultan/Startup received approximately 3-5 inches of fresh snow last night. However, windy conditions blew a lot of the powder away, leaving trace amounts up to 1 inch by mid-morning. Temps rose above freezing by 1pm, allowing some melt-off to occur. The coming week will be interesting. FORECA is predicting high probabilities of snow (appears to be another 1-3 inches) from 5pm Sunday thru 4am Monday, followed by a lull until noonish. Curious if you are familiar with FORECA.com and have any opinions on its 72-hour accuracy.

MaryannK. My family is from Minnesota. My grandparents moved here along with their 4 adult kids. They moved bit by bit till they were all here. Once, grandpa decided to show us kids how to drive in the snow here in the great pacific northwest. After all, he was a pro! We watched him march off, keys in hand. He made the first, flat, block. Then he hit a hill. He slid down, crashing into parked cars all the way. So no, I'm not ROFL. It's different here.

Cliff: Why has the western half of Whatcom County been excluded from and will continue to see (as projected) little or no snowfall from these otherwise massive areas of significant snowfall. Is it because we are simply outside the northern margin of moist air? And/or, is it because the Frasier Valley outflow is so strong it deters and or evaporates the moisture over this relatively small area of terrain?