View full sizeJames Owens, The Plain DealerBased on 2009 population estimates, Ohio would lose two Congressional seats and Texas would gain three. Several other states would gain or lose one seat each. However, any changes won't be known until the results of Census 2010 are released in late December.

Republicans on Tuesday could regain control of the state's delegation to Congress, just two years after Democrats won the majority from the GOP in the last election.

The next big day that will shape Ohio's future representation in Washington comes long before the next national election in another two years.

By the end of the year - probably within the last two weeks of December - Census Director Robert Groves will report to President Obama the first results of Census 2010.

What Obama will get are the state-by-state population numbers used to determine how the 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be divided among the states.

The safe bet is that Ohio will lose two seats, dropping its total from 18 to 16. This would be a continuation of a loss of power that began 40 years ago. Ohio had 24 seats during the 1960s, before losing one or two each decade since.

But losing only one seat this time is a possibility.

Dividing the House

Who is counted: Residents of the 50 states - both citizens and non-citizens - as well as military personnel, federal workers and their families stationed overseas, with the numbers assigned to their home states. Residents of Washington, D.C., and the territories are not included.

Why 435: The Constitution set the first House at 65 members. The 1790 Census resulted in 105. Size grew as the nation's population increased, until it was set at 433 in 1911, with an allowance for an increase to 435 once Arizona and New Mexico became states. There were temporarily 437 members after Alaska and Hawaii joined the union.

To illustrate how close Ohio is to keeping its seat, if a 436th seat in the House existed, Ohio would be in line for it. This is based on running the latest population estimates through an online calculator provided by the University of Michigan's Population Studies Center.

As it stands, the final seat - No. 435 - will go to the state of Washington.

If Ohio's population was 42,753 higher than estimated in 2009 - an increase of just 0.4% - and nothing changed elsewhere, Ohio would grab that final seat from Washington, giving the state 17 seats when the next Congress is elected in 2012.

Lisa Neidert, a senior research associate at the Population Studies Center, said she wouldn't be surprised if Ohio ended up losing just one slot.

"There are a lot of states on the border. Minnesota and Washington are too close to call," Neidert said. "In Michigan in 2000, we were [considered] safe. We had to lose 200,000 to lose a seat."

Yet, Michigan lost a seat in 2000, not because the pre-Census estimates were off for the state, but because the national population was much higher than expected, Neidert said.

Still, there is a theory that Ohio isn't as close to holding onto 17 seats as 2009 population estimates indicate. The reasoning is that each year, Ohio loses out a little more to growing states in the South and West; so the spread should increase again this year.

But growth elsewhere isn't what it once was, in part because of the bad economy.

If the moving patterns from the early 2000s had held, Florida likely would have overtaken New York for the size of its Congressional delegation, Frey wrote after the 2009 estimates were released. Instead, because Florida has ranked near the bottom of the country in picking up new residents through migration, that's not likely to happen.

The other thing to keep in mind is that there has been no firm data in 10 years.

"These estimates, as good as they are, are just estimates," Frey said during a phone interview. "The last time we had a real Census was 10 years ago.

"There are going to be surprises. The surprises could be enough to effect Ohio, effect New York, effect Florida."

Follow Us

cleveland.com is powered by Plain Dealer Publishing Co. and Northeast Ohio Media Group. All rights reserved (About Us).The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Northeast Ohio Media Group LLC.