Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Mitt Romney

January 28, 2013

Amid the last round of lackluster poll numbers for Gov. Rick Scott political consultant Tony Fabrizio in mid-December wrote a one-page memo where he argued that it was way too early for people to write off Scott's chances for a second term.

"Anyone who dismisses Governor Scott and his chances does so at their own peril. Governor Scott has nearly a year longer to reverse negative numbers similar to what the President had, therefore it seems irresponsible and hasty to count the governor out from making an equal, if not stronger, turn around."

It could also be argued that some of Scott's recent policy initiatives on tuition, voting and now teacher pay raises are aimed squarely at muting Crist on those same issues. Crist for example in 2009 signed the bill that gave universities in Florida the ability to raise tuition up to 15 percent a year until Florida's tuition rates reach the national average. Contrast that to Scott's firm insistence that tuition be held flat.

But the central question remains: What can Scott do on his own to turn things around in the coming year and heading into 2014?

The plain fact is that governors - unlike the president - have a much more limited fashion in which to engage with the public and convince them they are doing a good job.

One way is completely out of Scott's control: Show leadership through a crisis such as a natural disaster. Part of the enduring legacy - for example - of former Gov. Jeb Bush is the way he dealt with the wave of hurricanes that hit the state.

The difficulty for Scott rebuilding his brand and image in the second half of his term is that in many ways he's already been like three different governors.

Thanks to three different chiefs of staff he has approached governing, his agenda and his interaction with the press in distinct ways.

The first phase of Scott's governorship - where he was surrounded by people who helped his campaign including defacto chief of staff Mary Anne Carter - the governor staked out positions that excited the base of GOP voters who propelled him in the Republican primary and helped him get a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink. He unveiled a budget that cut funding for education, he rejected billions in federal aid for high speed rail, he clashed with the Florida Legislature and his staff had a bunker mentality with the press.

The second phase under Steve MacNamara included a decision to have Scott engage in a two-way strategy with the press: Open up more to the mainstream media while also appearing on conservative talk radio shows to keep the base engaged. Also put in place was a more calculated strategy of trying to work with the Legislature. Take on the winnable battles like auto insurance reforms, avoid direct engagement (like in casino gambling) on issues that have an uncertain chance of success. Scott jettisoned parts of his campaign agenda such as pushing tough new laws on immigration. He became more accommodating to legislative initiatives and even embraced some of them such as the creation of Florida Polytechnic University. And Scott tried to undo the damage caused in the first phase by pushing for a funding increase in education.

Now with current chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth we have the third phase. Yet another strategy with the press. There are attempts to appear less rigid and more open to dialogue with opponents (hence the "discussions" over Obamacare with Washington D.C. or the dinner with top officials with the Florida Education Association.) And there's even a full 180-turn on hot topics such as voting where Scott - who signed the law that cut early voting days and defended it court - is now advocating an expansion of early voting beyond what was previously in place.

Moving ahead then here's the avenues left for Scott to try to change his trajectory with voters (outside the hope that the economy will continue to grow and that Scott will get the credit.)

SCOTT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: Like it or not Scott's third year in office will in many ways revolve around what he accomplishes this spring. He will be judged by how much of his agenda is accepted or rejected by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Scott this week will present a budget that in many ways will attempt to highlight his new priorities, such as a flat across the board pay raise for teachers, a freeze on university tuition hikes and a cut in sales taxes for the purchase of equipment used in manufacturing. (More on this later this week)

But it should not be assumed that top lawmakers will bend to Scott's wishes as evidenced by the initial lackluster enthusiasm given Scott's teacher pay raise proposal. And we still don't have a clear idea on what will happen to the implementation of Obamacare, especially on expansion of Medicaid that is now an optional part of the federal health care overhaul. If Scott rejects expansion - which appears likely given his recent statements - will lawmakers buck him and dare the governor to veto it?

Scott's trump card, of course, is that he has the ability to shoot down any legislative proposals that he dislikes and he can use that as leverage to get what he needs.

Given Scott's recent populist turn on voting and teacher pay raises it will be interesting to see if he uses the veto pen as a way to distinguish himself from the Legislature. For example what does the governor do if a bill raising insurance rates for the 1.3 million customers of Citizens Property Insurance were to cross his desk on the eve of this year's hurricane season?

KEEP UP OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT: In some ways Scott was actually better served by having President Barack Obama getting re-elected than having Republican Mitt Romney win. The down side to Obama's re-election is that the president and his allies have the capacity to assist the campaign of someone like newly-minted Democrat Crist. But Obama in the White House gives Scott - and the Republicans in general - something to rail about heading into 2014. You can see the narrative: "I stood up to the president on government controlled health care, we improved the economy without his help, we will not go along with his agenda on guns." You get the picture. And if Obama's numbers go underwater again then Scott gets to link Crist to the president.

SCOTT'S MEDIA STRATEGY: Largely unnoticed by the general public Scott's media strategy has in fact been altered with the entrance of new communications director Melissa Sellers. That's not to say that everything has been smooth sailing (witness the brouhaha over the return of Scott's dog Reagan.) But the press office's new strategy does appear to be one of cooperation (when it benefits the Scott agenda) and less direct confrontation. This means giving some in the press access in the hopes it will create a story that bolsters the governor.

This doesn't mean, however, that the press office is passive. Far from it.

The governor's office appears to be engaged in trying to get Scott's message out (which is amplified by the Republican Party of Florida, whose media operation is lead by former communications director Brian Burgess). It is then left to some of the agencies to push back against stories that the Scott administration does not agree with. Several agencies, for example, in recent months have put out press releases sent to all media outlets that attempt to debunk stories and even editorials that have appeared. (The changes at the Department of Environmental Protection being a key example.)

Meanwhile, the governor's press office is tracking media coverage even more closer than ever before. Emails show that the governor's entire staff is now getting "news alerts" that include snippets of stories and even tweets by capitol press corps reporters just moments after they hit the web and Twitter.

So will it all add up?

It's hard to say.

Part of the difficulty for those working for Scott is some of the missteps in the first two years have been self-inflicted. Democrats may not like some of Scott's policy initiatives but some of them have polled well with the general public i.e. drug testing for welfare recipients.

Those who have dealings with Scott will tell you up front that he studies details and takes times to understand complex policy issues.

The balancing act in the months ahead is whether Scott can find success with the Legislature and the economy and finally reverse his flat-lining poll numbers. Because even during a campaign there's only so much love money can buy.

November 27, 2012

In the run-up to today's election, there's been an avalanche of polls, a whole lot of spin and a lot of competing predictions about who will win Florida.

Complaints from conservatives have been that the polls have undersampled Republicans and attributed higher turnout to Democrats than will materialize. Democrats, meanwhile, have also questioned the polling models in different ways, including whether there has been an undersample of young people.

Lost in this back-and-forth is a recognition that the election of 2008 isn't quite what it is made out to be here in Florida.

The dominant thinking is that Barack Obama motivated minority voters and young people and created a surge of turnout in 2008.

But what some may have forgotten is that Republican John McCain got more votes in 2008 than President George W. Bush did when he took Florida in 2004.

McCain got 4.04 million votes when he lost the state while Bush received 3.96 million.

The counter-argument, of course, well there was population growth and more voters so it makes sense McCain got more votes.

But there was actually a higher percentage turnout in several counties that McCain won.

Take Brevard County which runs down the east Coast and is home to Cape Canaveral.

Turnout four years ago in this Republican-dominated county was actually 82.5 percent compared to nearly 79 percent in 2004. Turnout was higher in other red counties such as Clay, Lake, Lee, Pasco, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole, and St. John's.

Of course despite this McCain won 53 out of Florida's 67 counties. President Bush, by contrast, won 57 out of 67 counties during the 2004 elections.

The question that needs to be asked is whether or not the ongoing changes in demographic makeup in Florida _ and which continued over the last four years _ have scrambled up the traditional thinking about this state.

For example, there are now 1.66 million Hispanic voters compared to 1.35 million just four years ago. Back in 2008 the number of black registered voters actually outnumbered Hispanics. The total number of black voters grew as well from 1.46 million to 1.62 million.

The end result? Even though the number of white registered voters increased overall their percentage of the electorate actually shrank. So four years ago when Obama won the state whites made up 69.1 percent of the electorate. That number has dropped to 66.5 percent.

Certainly the makeup of the Hispanic vote is not like it is in other states _ and Florida's Cuban-Americans have been reliable Republican voters. Another argument has been that Central Florida Hispanics _ many of whom are Puerto Rican _ don't care as much about GOP nominee Mitt Romney's hard line against immigration as other Hispanics.

But let's look at what happened in several key counties back in the last two cycles. These are the counties that will make or break the state for President Obama or former Gov. Romney.

MIAMI-DADE: This is the one that really jumps out. Turnout was actually HIGHER in 2004 when President Bush was on the ballot. Despite the lower turnout McCain nearly got as many votes - 360,000 - that Bush did. So McCain nearly duplicated what the Spanish-speaking brother of the governor of Florida did in 2004. Of course, what happened is that the number of voters in Miami-Dade grew between 2004 and 2008. President Obama got 90,000 more votes than John Kerry did. That's nearly half of the 236,000 vote margin that propelled Obama to win the state. Even if you go with the Republican talking point that Obama's turnout machine will not replicate what happened previously there's a case to be made that Romney will likely have to do better than the past two GOP nominees in this pivotal county in order to hold down Obama's margin.

(UPDATE: Romney got less votes in Miami-Dade than McCain did in 2008, while Obama took in roughly 42,000 more votes than he did the first time around. And this all happened even though turnout was slightly lower than it was in 2008.)

HILLSBOROUGH: Behind Miami-Dade this is probably the second-most important county to watch on election night. Hillsborough had been trending Republican in recent years, yet four years ago Obama took this county. He got nearly 59,000 votes more than Kerry did despite LOWER TURNOUT than in 2004. Additionally, McCain took in only 236,000 votes compared to 245,000 votes for President Bush. If Obama wins Hillsborough then there's probably a good chance he will take the state.

(UPDATE: Obama did win Hillsborough, and therefore he won the state. Again Obama took in more votes in this county during his re-election bid than he did the first time around. While Romney got a higher vote total than McCain did or President Bush did - he still finished 36,000 votes behind Obama, which was roughly the same number as McCain.)

DUVAL: This county will be in the Romney column. No one doubts that. It's just a matter of how big a lead that Romney racks up here. In 2004 Bush won Duval with nearly 58 percent of the vote. McCain, however, won Duval by a slim margin of 50.6 percent.This is the county that Romney needs to do well in order to offset the margins in South Florida.

(UPDATE: President Obama did lose ground here, finishing with 47.8 percent of the vote in Duval, a decline both in percentage and raw totals from 2008. Yet despite that fact Romney only pulled in 1,000 more votes than McCain did. So in other words, Romney did not get the type of advantage he needed in Duval to offset votes elsewhere.)

ORANGE: This was another county that went big for Obama in 2008. He got roughly 80,000 more votes than John Kerry did four years earlier. But the cut in early voting days _ which as we have seen is favored by Democrats _ did have an impact in this county. Not counting the provisional ballots that were cast on Sunday _ the total number of voters who voted early in Orange dropped from just over 145,000 in 2008 to a little more than 127,000 this year according to Bill Cowles, the elections supervisor there. The county had these lower early voting numbers even though the number of registered voters in Orange has jumped up 14 percent. This would seem to suggest that Obama will not repeat the same margin he got previously.

(UPDATE: In the end the voter turnout in Orange County did dip from 2008. But it made little difference in the raw totals. Obama received about the same number of votes in 2012 as he did the first time around. Romney took in only about 2,000 more votes than the president.)

PINELLAS: This county is worth keeping an eye on as a potential trendsetter. Obama won Pinellas four years ago, while Bush won the county in 2004.But this county actually has FEWER active registered voters than it did in 2008. The voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans is also smaller than it was previously.

(UPDATE: There was a significant decline in Pinellas. President Obama took in 9,000 fewer votes than he did in 2008. But Romney only picked up about 3,000 more votes than McCain did.)

OSCEOLA: There's a reason that former Gov. Jeb Bush and the Romney campaign made a stop in Kissimmee this past Saturday. This county in Central Florida could be the one to really watch on election night. Four years ago President Obama won the county and received nearly 60,000 votes to slightly more than 40,000 votes. That was a dramatic turnaround from 2004 when President Bush won the county with 43,000 votes. The stakes are even higher this year. Voter registration in this county has grown from just under 137,000 in 2008 to more than 163,000 this time out. The number of registered Democrats in this county grew from just under 60,000 to more than 71,000 while GOP registration went up from 40,96 to 43,588. In other words, this county may be the one that proves or disproves the Obama campaign's much hyped ground game.

(UPDATE: And the shift played out as expected. Obama's lead in Osceola was substantially bigger in 2012 than it was in 2008. His vote total went from just under 60,000 to more than 67,000, while Romney's vote total was nearly identical to McCain.)

August 31, 2012

Here's a few reflections and quick takeaways on what the first convention held in Florida since 1972 means for the state.

1. Enjoy the feeling Floridians. Given the close brush near the convention by Hurricane Isaac, one has to wonder when Florida will get the chance to host another convention. While the convention went off without any large scale problems the fact that the storm forced planners to cancel a day of events may leave future party leaders skeptical about a return to the Sunshine State.

2. Does the convention propel Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn into the conversation about Democrats who could run statewide? Buckhorn made the most out of being the chief ambassador for the region and he seemed to bask in the limelight that came with it. The fact that the convention was not marred by the serious protests and arrests that have occurred at other conventions could also help his reputation.

3. Did Hurricane Isaac help Gov. Rick Scott's image? Scott's decision to bypass convention events until the final night and instead focus on the state's response to Isaac brought praise from people like Buckhorn and Republicans such as Jeb Bush.

"It was smart of Gov. Scott to do his job of preparation and response,'' Bush said.

Bush is one person who knows that successfully handling hurricanes can help one's image. When he left office Bush remained immensely popular despite pushing policies that did not always poll well with voters. That popularity was due in part to the serious and organized way he dealt with the eight hurricanes that hit the state in 2004 and 2005.

Some commentators found the presentation confusing and stilted, but it may be more important to note that this might be the last hurrah for Bondi on this issue. Florida's court case is now over. And it will be up to voters to decide whether or not the federal care overhaul should be repealed or kept in place since Romney has vowed to eliminate it if he gets in office.

Bondi made the health care lawsuit her primary focus during her first two years in office. While she has also gone after prescription drug abuse, it seems that there could be a bit of vacuum for Bondi now that the health care lawsuit is finished.

Bondi, for example, has not adopted the same populist outlook that characterized previous AG's such as Charlie Crist and Bob Butterworth. Both Crist and former Attorney General Bill McCollum battled utility companies over rate hikes but Bondi so far has chosen to "monitor" rate hike proposals and not fight them.

5. The convention only enhanced both the reputations of Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

Rubio's speech introducing Romney touched on many of the same themes he pushed during his 2010 campaign, including American exceptionalism and how his own biography is a manifestation of the American dream.

Where Rubio goes from here remains to be seen. We still don't know if how he would stand up to a constant vettting by the national press. Stories about Rubio's finances that were written by the Florida media would likely resurface in a much more specatcular fashion if he were to run for President.

As for Bush a run for national office is there if he wants it. Some speculate that Bush will stay on the sidelines and allow a younger generation to step forward. Maybe. But judging from the way he was treated at the convention he would become an immediate frontrunner for 2016 if Romney were to lose.

August 27, 2012

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in
office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much
above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by
Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.

April 27, 2012

Gov. Rick Scott is scheduled on Friday to act on another big batch of bills, but one of them is sure to overshadow all of the others.

Scott must decide whether to maintain his desire to keep college tuition low - or sign a bill that lets the University of Florida and Florida State University raise its tuition rates above the current 15 percent a year cap set in state law.

This decision in many ways may be a pivotal one for Scott that factors into this year's elections - as well as maybe even Scott's re-election bid in 2014.

Scott must make his up mind on the legislation (HB 7129) at the same exact time that President Barack Obama has been hitting college campuses in North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. The president has been calling on Congress to stop interest rates on student loans from increasing this summer.

It has turned into yet another fierce partisan fight because Democrats and Republicans are in sharp disagreement on how to pay for it.

Republicans have responded to Obama's push by saying the real problem for young people right now is that they are unemployed or underemployed due to the ongoing problems in the economy.

Scott himself did not recommend a tuition hike in his budget, although he let stand a five-percent hike for the state's 28 colleges take effect. This week, however, he told reporters that he hopes that the Board of Governors - which oversees the state's universities ( a different set of higher education institutions) - does not use its power to raise tuition up to the full 15 percent now allowed under law.

The governor also said that he not made up his mind on the UF/FSU bill and has prepared both a veto message and a signing message.

You can argue of course tuition hikes - and the student loan issue - are not the same. But at a time that both parties are battling over young voters Scott's action could be used by the Democrats for symbolic purposes.

And it's worth noting that Alachua and Leon counties - the home to UF/FSU - delivered for Obama big-time in 2008. Obama won Florida by more than 236,000 votes. His margin over McCain in those two counties alone was nearly 64,000 votes. Were those votes all from students? No, of course not. But it's fair to say that they helped.

So while there is a political element to all of of this this also a make or break moment for higher education watchers.

The bill was an outgrowth of House Speaker Dean Cannon's speech this past January where he contended that the state's universities are mired in mediocrity and suffer from too much political interference.

In the last several years lawmakers have step-by-step moved closer to this moment. It used to be that tuition was completely in the hands of the Florida Legislature, but they have slowly ceded control to others, primarily the Board of Governors.

This of course has the effect of slowly taking tuition out of the political arena. In the past some Republicans fought this by arguing they did not want to relinquish control over something that affects the pocketbook of thousands of people.

University supporters, however, contend more money is needed to help propel the state's universities forward and make them more competitive with other national schools. The bill would be a first step in that direction.

Still a N.Y. Times article points some interesting facts, including that last year student debt surpassed card debt in 2010 and that for the last three decades tuition has outpaced the rate of inflation.

In many ways Scott and Obama - despite stark differences in many policy areas - are linked together because the jobs situation in Florida (now and in 2014) will be a key to their political success. You can argue over who is responsible, but you can't dismiss the fact that the unemployment rate remains a major factor in their re-election campaigns.

The question is whether or not college affordability becomes another place where the two become connected.

"Many Floridians have offered very passionate advice on this issue," Scott wrote. "While this decision has not been easy, I do not feel that I can sign this bill into law without a more detailed plan to ensure the increased tuition requirements on Florida students will provide the return they and other Floridians need on their additional investment."

January 31, 2012

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

November 29, 2011

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney touched down in Florida on Tuesday, making public appearances in both Tampa and Miami.

Romney got plenty of news coverage for his visit - and also picked up the endorsements of three well-known Cuban Americans who backed U.S. Sen. John McCain back in 2008.

The decision of his campaign to campaign in Central Florida and South Florida is likely a reflection of the math that led to Romney's defeat four years ago.

Romney lost the Florida primary to McCain by nearly 97,000 votes.

But the former Massachusetts governor's loss was not across the board.

Instead McCain and Romney found victory and defeat by how they fared in different parts of the state that each have their own unique sense of geopolitics.

Romney actually bested McCain in 17 counties. He had his strongest performances in Northeast Florida and in Southwest Florida. Romney won Duval County by more than 13,000 votes.

So why did Romney lose?

Because he lost to McCain in the Tampa Bay area and because he fared miserably in South Florida.

McCain took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties by decent margins, but he really racked up a lead down south.

McCain did better than Romney in Broward County by more than 17,000 votes. McCain won Palm Beach County by more than 10,000 votes and had a 52,000 vote-plus edge over Romney in Miami-Dade.

In Miami-Dade Romney actually came in third trailing both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Of course a lot of the buzz four years ago was that the late endorsement by Gov. Charlie Crist may have given McCain the momentum he needed to push past Romney.

This is a new day and a new election and Romney's focus on the economy and jobs should resonate in a state with more than 900,000 people out of work. (The unemployment rate in Florida back during the 2008 primary was 4.6 percent.)

But one has to wonder what kind of impact that Romney's hard-line stance on immigration will have in South Florida even with the recent endorsements of well-known politicians such as Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart.

If former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a contender, it will be interesting how Gingrich's more nuanced stance on immigration will play in Miami-Dade. Current voter stats show that 9.1 percent of all registered Republicans in Florida live in Miami-Dade.

There is a school of thought that one reason that Bill McCollum lost to Rick Scott in last year's GOP primary for governor is because McCollum suddenly took a hard-line stance on immigration in response to Scott's television ad barrage that made McCollum appear soft on the issue. The thinking is that this left Hispanic Republicans lukewarm when it came to both candidates. Scott was also able to accuse McCollum of being a flip-flopper.

What is indisputable is that Scott squeaked out a 36,000 vote victory in a primary that saw both Broward and Miami-Dade have low turnout margins compared to the rest of the state.

Broward turnout in the GOP primary for governor didn't even top 15 percent, while Miami-Dade turnout was 17.9 percent. McCollum won both counties, but not with the kinds of margins to help him offset his loss in places such as Scott's home county of Collier or in Duval County.

Is a presidential preference primary and a governor's primary the same thing? Absolutely not.

But it's hard not to wonder if some of the new advisers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (including the team which helped engineer Scott's victory) have looked at the math and concluded that Romney remains vulnerable in Florida. (Especially if Perry is able to hold onto his money and use it for television ads during the home stretch before the Jan. 31 primary.)

Romney's path to the nomination will be a lot easier if he cruises to easy victories in states such as New Hampshire and Florida.

But if Romney loses again then Florida could be the precursor to a much longer and drawn-out nomination fight.

September 24, 2011

(Sorry - for this blog being on hiatus for so long, but it's back for good.)

The three day gathering of Republicans known as Presidency 5 will come to fruition later today when the Republican Party of Florida announces the results of its much ballyhooed straw poll.

Gov. Rick Scott and others have touted the poll as a true indicator of who have the best shot to win the presidency. Scott has pointed out that in the past four polls the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination and even the White House. Another argument is that Florida is a much more diverse state and that it is a microcosm of the state.

The conventional wisdom at this point is that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the one to beat despite his performance in the Thursday night debate.

But there is also a considerable amount of buzz surrounding both Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney had made it clear that he's not actively competing in the straw poll despite the fact his name will be on the ballot.

The prospect of a Cain or Paul victory quietly has some Florida Republicans nervous.

The logic is this: What does it say about this high-profile national event if one of the frontrunners do not win. Will it take off some of the polish for the future?

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, brushed aside such talk.

"The party is excited for the delegates to have their opportunity to vote, we’re looking forward to seeing what the results are,'' Hughes said. "We anticipate to make national news with our selection."

It will probably be national news because there could be ramifications for Perry's campaign if he does not take the straw poll

It could be a lot of hand-wringing that doesn't amount to much, because theoretically, the next straw poll may come about for another eight years. And Florida will remain much in the spotlight due to the likely early Florida primary and the 2012 Republican National Convention.

But the reaction among top Florida Republicans later today could be interesting.