Rivalry set to spoil coalition victory plans

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Policy disputes between the state Liberals and Nationals
spell defeat.

Robert Doyle and Peter Ryan used to enjoy a drink together. But
so far this year they haven't done so - and that's bad news for
conservative politics in Victoria.

The men who now lead the Victorian Liberal and National parties
go back quite a way. They walked up the steps of Parliament House
together as new MPs after the 1992 election. They are of similar
vintage, they're both sociable types and they share a common hatred
of the Labor Party. But now, as the 2006 election looms ever
closer, the tension between the two men - and their parties - is
palpable and rising.

The Nationals reckon the Libs are taking them for granted,
presuming they will agree to re-enter a coalition agreement after
the election if that's what it takes to throw the Bracks Government
out of office. And the Nats are right to think this.

The Libs reckon the Nats can be taken for granted, because if
the crunch comes, the Nationals won't be able to resist the lure of
the big, white, chauffeur-driven ministerial cars and the seats at
the cabinet table. And the Libs are almost certainly right to think
this.

But in the meantime, the two conservative parties, if not in a
state of war, will be indulging in periodic sniper attacks on each
other. Steve Bracks will simply sit back and enjoy the show.

Peter Ryan takes particular offence at Robert Doyle's repeated
public statements that to win government, the Liberals need to pick
up an extra 20 seats. The trouble with this shorthand summary of
the Libs' enormous task is that it takes for granted that the Nats
will come on board. The maths go like this: the Liberals now hold
just 17 of the 88 lower house seats. Add 20 and they are still way
short of a majority. But add the Nationals' seven seats and the
conservative parties get to the magic figure of 44.

Bad blood between the two conservative parties will only enhance the prospects of a third Bracks triumph."

The Nationals will use their annual state conference in
Wangaratta today and tomorrow to let Doyle and those city slicker
Liberals know that they don't appreciate the sleight, whether
deliberate or inadvertent. Indeed, while the conference will
involve some ritualistic criticism of the ALP, the most passionate
rhetoric will be reserved for the Liberals.

The animosity is travelling on a two-way street. Many Liberals,
some with a barely concealed sense of glee, suggest the Nats are
heading out the back door of Victorian politics. Some are
forecasting that the Nats' upper house representation will be
slashed from four seats to two or even one at the next election,
and that two, three or even four of the party's seven lower house
MPs are also in danger of defeat. And here's the rub: it would be
the Liberals, not Labor, who would pick up these National Party
electorates.

The Nats, unsurprisingly if not entirely persuasively, predict
in turn that they'll retain all seven lower house seats and hope to
pick up others, including some held at the moment by, you guessed
it, the Liberals.

But the cooling relationship between Doyle and Ryan is evident
not just in these turf wars; it also goes to policy and philosophy.
Doyle is a self-declared Liberal left-winger. On some social
issues, such as abortion, he stands to the left of Steve Bracks,
and he has great affection for the Dick Hamer legacy in
environmental policy. Ryan by contrast is, well, a Nat - social
conservatism is ingrained, and his party is more brown than green
when it comes to the environment.

In policy terms, Doyle has lost the Nats over his audacious
promise make the Scoresby freeway toll-free. Ryan thinks it's a
reckless policy that will take public money from rural Victoria and
give it to metropolitan motorists.

What should be of particular concern to Doyle is that Ryan has
some form when it comes to standing up to the Liberals.

The Nationals were badly burned by the Jeff Kennett experience.
Under the leadership of the unlamented Pat McNamara, they served as
junior coalition partner in the Kennett government as rural
services were slashed and as the premier from Surrey Hills famously
described Melbourne as the "heart" of Victoria and the regions as
the "toenails".

In the turbulent weeks immediately after the "drawn" election of
September 1999, as Labor negotiated a deal with the three
independent MPs and Kennett tried to strike a new coalition
agreement with the Nationals, the junior conservative party
infuriated the Liberal leader by demanding an extra cabinet seat.
Robert Doyle was dispatched to ask his friend from the class of
'92, Peter Ryan, whether the Nats were serious that the choice was
an extra cabinet spot or no coalition. Ryan's response?
"Absolutely." Kennett relented, only to see Bracks take the prize
with the connivance of the independents.

Within months of that extraordinary election, McNamara resigned
from Parliament, and his seat of Benalla was lost to Labor for the
first time in a century. Ryan assumed leadership of the Nationals
and quickly ended the party's "partnership" with the Liberals. Five
years on, he and his party are still enjoying the freedom.

Here's the bottom line: Doyle's Liberals will not win the
November 2006 election in their own right. The only alternative to
a returned Bracks Government is a Liberal/National coalition
government. Bad blood between the two conservative parties between
now and then will only enhance the prospects of a third Bracks
triumph.

Perhaps Robert Doyle should invite his old friend for a drink.
And perhaps it should be Doyle's shout.