Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Bottom of the 9th: Injured Closers in Boston

The back end of the Red Sox bullpen is in shambles. Both Joel Hanrahan
and Andrew Bailey, the two guys who have served as closer this season,
are injured. Bailey is on the 15-day disabled list with a biceps injury,
and Hanrahan seems likely to join him there with a forearm injury.
While the loss of those two relievers is a blow to the depth of the
bullpen, they may very well not be the two most-talented pitchers in the
pen. In fact, one could argue that neither of them are in the top two
in terms of talent in Boston.

Look up the term “beast” on Wikipedia, and you’ll likely see a
picture of Koji Uehara. If you don’t, the Internet has failed as a
truth-telling mechanism. He uses mainly a fastball-cutter combination to
keep hitters off-balance. He’s pitched in the big leagues since 2009,
racking up about 225 innings pitched. For all pitchers with at least 200
innings to their credit in that time span, Uehara is one of four
pitchers with a swinging strike percentage over 14 percent, and he also
ranks fourth in first-pitch strike percentage (67.5 percent). He’s also
fourth at limiting contact on swings in the strike zone, and only
Mariano Rivera gets hitters to swing out of the strike zone more often
than Uehara.
Add it all up, and you get a guy who owns a 2.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/BB in his career.
How many pitchers with at least 200 career innings have posted a K/BB
of 8.0 over the course of their careers? Just one: Uehara. Second place
goes to a guy named James Burke thanks to one good season in 1884 that
gave him a 7.5 K/BB rate. Next is Sergio Romo with a 6.0 K/BB. No one
else tops a five-to-one ratio. (Stats according to Fangraphs.) So if you
place emphasis on strikeout-to-walk rate displaying a pitcher’s worth,
Uehara has beaten all pitchers in history in the category.
It’s a testament to the other quality pitcher in the discussion that
Uehara isn’t the run-away winner of the interim closer job. Junichi
Tazawa doesn’t have historically great statistics on his side, but he
did post a 1.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 45:5 K:BB ratio in 44 innings.
Again, that’s five walks for an entire season. You know what Carlos
Marmol calls five walks? Sunday. Tazawa hasn’t been quite as amazing
this season, but his 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 18:3 K:BB ratio in 14.1
innings are still plenty good. With more heat on his fastball and
cutter, Tazawa may profile more as closer material for the Red Sox.
However, the fact is that Tazawa has been the seventh-inning guy this
year, with eight of his 14.1 innings coming during the seventh. Uehara
has plied his trade in the eighth inning, with 8.1 of his 13.2 innings
coming in the eighth. The pecking order seems well-established for the
Red Sox, and Uehara tends to be used later in the game than Tazawa. With
Tazawa 12 years the junior of Uehara, he has a better chance of being
the long-term option at closer for the Red Sox. But we’re talking about
the present, and Uehara is the favorite to serve as the interim closer
for the Red Sox. With as well as both guys have pitched, both deserve to
be owned in all fantasy leagues.UPDATE: Just after I published this article, word
came out that manager John Farrell may actually prefer Tazawa at closer.
Fine by me — as I said above, both have been great. If you can only
have one, pick up Tazawa. If you can’t get Tazawa, Uehra is still worth
owning.Chicago Cubs
Now is the time to add Kyuji Fujikawa in all leagues. He could be
back at any point for the Cubs, and his talent should lead him to the
closer role before long, even with Kevin Gregg pitching well. It
wouldn’t surprise me to see him immediately re-inserted into the closing
gig, rather than the Cubs tempting fate with Gregg any longer. I’d feel
confident projecting Fujikawa to lead the Cubs in saves this season.

R.J. White is the head editor at the Cafe and contributes to CBSSports.com's MLB Rumors blog. He has previously written for FanHouse, Razzball and FanDuel. Catch up with him in the forums under the name daullaz. Follow him on Twitter; don't follow him in real life.