More polls: Romney now within three points in Michigan, two in Pennsylvania

posted at 8:01 pm on October 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

In case there was any lingering shred of doubt that Romney helped himself considerably last week, this ought to finish it off. Michigan:

Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points…

“Romney has come back like gangbusters,” said EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. “Whether or not it’s long-lasting, only time will tell, but probably the remaining debates will be key.”

Conducted in the three days following the Wednesday debate, the poll showed more than five times as many Michiganders interviewed named Romney, not Obama, as the debate’s winner. Romney’s numbers improved most dramatically among independent and undecided voters.

Worth noting: Per the article, Romney’s closing the gap on O in Michigan even while other prominent Dems are expanding their leads. Debbie Stabenow went from being 11 points up on Pete Hoekstra last month to 20 points up now. That’s in line with Obama’s 2008 margin in Michigan of 16.5 points. Fast forward four years and she’s keeping pace with that advantage while he’s … now statistically tied with his Republican challenger. Must be a lot of left-leaning independents thinking of splitting their ballot to produce a result like that.

Perhaps the biggest movement in SP&R’s latest poll is the increase in Mitt Romney’s favorable image in Pennsylvania. In the current poll Romney now holds a 48% to 42% favorable to unfavorable rating (or +6 positive) – making this the first time in not only our polling but virtually any other publicly-released PA poll showing the GOP challenger with a largely positive image. For instance, prior to the current poll Romney’s average favorable image in numerous statewide polls conducted by our firm from June through September was 39%, while his average unfavorable rating was 43%. So the current poll represents a 9-point jump in his positive image to the point where Romney now enjoys an even better positive image than the incumbent President, who now has a 50% favorable to 47% unfavorable rating (or only +3 positive). Plus, 76% of voters said they watched the first televised debate, with a net 2% saying they switched their vote from Obama to Romney based on what they saw. This switch, plus the increase in favorable ratings for the GOP nominee is clear evidence the debates have helped solidify the Keystone State as a tossup election in November and one well within Romney’s reach.

Caveat to this one: Susquehanna also had the the race within two points in Pennsylvania in two separate polls conducted in September. No other pollster has had the state closer than six points since September 1. On the other hand, this poll’s partisan split seems credible: It’s D+6 when voters are asked how they’re registered, which jibes with the 2008 state exit poll showing an advantage of D+7. And the surge in Romney’s favorables reflects what Pew found in its blockbuster earlier this afternoon. Go figure that after a summer of ads depicting him as a corporate pirate turned tax cheat and the most radically right-wing nominee since Goldwater, the public was pleasantly surprised to find that he’s a genial technocrat who knows his stuff better than Obama does. The Democrats set the bar low and Romney cleared it by 20 feet. That’s why his favorables have inflated.

As of early last month, Team Mitt and his conservative allies had spent next to nothing in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Romney was talking tough about PA as recently as a week before the debate. Keep an eye out for news stories about American Crossroads, AFP, etc, starting to buy ads there; if that happens, then we’ll know that the private polling is showing the same momentum. In the meantime, enjoy the latest “celebrity” ad on behalf of the Empty Chair. I recognize exactly one person here, but who knows: Maybe there are votes to be had in the 18-29 demographic by having Z-listers making lame sight gags.

Hmmm. I suspect the pollsters now realize not many were fooled by their shenanigans. Called out by the British Daily Telegraph no less. And after Obama’s disastrous performance could not hide the real score any longer. Expect a slow reversion back to Obama if the race really is a close as the libs say.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are virtually tied among likely voters, a new Gallup daily tracking poll will show, according to USA Today’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.

In previous Gallup daily polling including on Monday, Obama has held a 5 percentage-point lead among registered voters. But the Gallup poll to come Tuesday will report results from a smaller pool among those voters, those who are likely to vote. That change in the poll’s method will “wipe out” the president’s lead, Page said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/08/paul_ryan_walks_out_of_local_interview_after_strange_question.html
Upon seeing that in RCP,I was at first worried that the pressure was getting to Ryan at the eves of the debate, but watching the video told a very different story from the headline. The idiot interviewer was clearly a biased lefty POS who taunted Ryan after his answer in response to how gun violence can be controlled by throwing in a non sequitur: “And that can be done by a massive tax cut”. Ryan did not lose his cool and just said ” Those were you words”. The interview was stopped by somebody off camera. Ryan was still there, calmly removing his mike, taking a drink, when he was informed that the interview was over. He did not walk out. The headline was highly misleading.

Mitt, spend some money here in PA. Make at least one public appearance here that the general public can attend. I’m in Western PA and I see no television ads. This is a shame, because 95 percent of the people I know here are voting for you.

I was in a meeting at work today. As we walked out of the conference room and up the hallway toward the foyer, I noticed that a crowd of workers was standing there staring at the TV. Mitt Romney was giving his foreign policy speech. More and more of them stopped to watch.

You can win here, Mitt. The wars on coal, religion and American exceptionalism resonate. So does the fact that PA’s unemployment rate just went up statewide and in most counties in Western PA. You can win the suburbs and exurbs of Philly, too. I’m sure of that.

I have been saying this repeatedly all year and no one listens. Forget the polls (all of them). Romney will win by as little as 5% of the popular vote and maybe as much as 10%. Romney will win the electoral vote with somewhere between 300-330 total . It’s fairly simple. It’s the economy…….and a few other minor things Obama has screwed up.

I don’t want to sound like a Poll-y-anna, but I’m starting to feel encouraged. Perhaps the whole country HAS NOT gone completely insane. This debate created more than a bounce. I’m beginning to think that for many it was a political awakening.

The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night:

Over the weekend I saw three different anti-Obama ads on Philly TV. Plus a lot of Republican down-ticket candidates are running heavy ads linking the Democrat to Obama. PA did not get any of the nasty Obama smear ads.

The reason PA is in play is that Romney is bringing back many Republicans who voted for Kerry and Obama, especially here in the Philly suburbs.

This Michigan girl will be voting Romney/Ryan! This state hit dead bottom under Granholm and her so-called economic policies – further destroyed by the Obama administration meddling in the auto industry. We seem to be finally on the right track with Governor Snyder (R) leading the way. He’s handling our state economy like a business – which I know Romney/Ryan will do with our great country! God Bless America!

Former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are virtually tied among likely voters, a new Gallup daily tracking poll will show, according to USA Today’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.

In previous Gallup daily polling including on Monday, Obama has held a 5 percentage-point lead among registered voters. But the Gallup poll to come Tuesday will report results from a smaller pool among those voters, those who are likely to vote. That change in the poll’s method will “wipe out” the president’s lead, Page said. Source

Shuttle Service to and from the event will be provided. No parking will be available at Oakland University. First Shuttle will depart at 4:30PM. Last shuttle will depart at 9:45PM.

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible. No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

I see more and more Romney/Ryan signs in the yards here in western PA, particularly in what I always thought were pretty solid Dem areas. No Obama signs, but I’ve seen two or three cars with bumper stickers on them.

Then again, an acquaintance of mine thinks he’s voting for Gary Johnson. Gahhh!

The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night:

Folks, forget the polls and look at the metrics that would tell us who would win and who would lose the elections…
The two most important metrics are the percentage of total Obama voters from 2008 who would stay home in 2012 combined with the percentage of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 who would switch to Romney in 2012…If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 switching to Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections… The Math cannot be challenged here….

I know it’s tough up yonder, but PLEASE find some others to take (drag?) to the polls with you, on Nov 6 !!!
I really think that Michigan IS winnable !!
Good old Dave Bing is watching it happen, too !!
Dear Lord, please !?!?!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/08/paul_ryan_walks_out_of_local_interview_after_strange_question.html
Upon seeing that in RCP,I was at first worried that the pressure was getting to Ryan at the eves of the debate, but watching the video told a very different story from the headline. The idiot interviewer was clearly a biased lefty POS who taunted Ryan after his answer in response to how gun violence can be controlled by throwing in a non sequitur: “And that can be done by a massive tax cut”. Ryan did not lose his cool and just said ” Those were you words”. The interview was stopped by somebody off camera. Ryan was still there, calmly removing his mike, taking a drink, when he was informed that the interview was over. He did not walk out. The headline was highly misleading.
bayview on October 8, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Ryan is so blasted cute. He wasn’t upset or anything. His handlers called that interview off. Ryan was then talking to him after that. What the heck was that? Guns to tax cuts. He even had a smile when talking to him. He’s just so likeable. He will do fine in the debate!