Freakish DK Metcalf Lands in Ideal Fantasy Home with Seahawks

In one of the 2019 NFL Draft’s more surprising slides, DK Metcalf fell all the way to Pick 64, right into the WR-needy Seahawks’ laps. Both the strengths and weaknesses of Metcalf are glaringly clear. On the plus side, few humans are composed like Metcalf. An absolute specimen, Metcalf stands an imposing 6’3″, 228 lbs yet blazes a 4.33 forty to go along with an absurd 40.5 inch vertical ups. Negatively, his route tree possesses minimal branches beyond “go” and screens, and his lateral agility leaves plenty to be desired.

Fortunately for fantasy owners, Metcalf’s immense strengths align perfectly with the Seahawks’ passing game and overall offensive plan: pound the rock and sling deep with play-action. Recently-extended All-Pro QB Russell Wilson throws one of the league’s best deep ball; this ability to drop bombs exactly where he wants them, combined with Metcalf’s unfair size and speed to rip through defenses, should create beautiful fantasy music in 2019.

Indeed, the Seahawks “Aerial Pie” may be among the league’s smallest. Under new OC Brian Schottenheimer, the team ranked dead-last in pass attempts, and were the only team in the NFL with a higher run-to-pass play ratio (52% run / 48% pass).

Yet, small doesn’t mean gross with a passer as talented and efficient as Wilson. The Seahawks ranked 6th in the league in Yards per attempt (8.1), while Wilson somehow tied Big Ben for 5th in passing TDs (35) despite the league’s minimum in attempts. In fact, Wilson tossed a TD on 12.5% of his completions, and the team has ranked 1st and 6th in 20+ yard throws over the past two years. A significant chunk of this production came on play-action, where the Seahawks trailed only the Rams with 33% of their throws. Much more is a testament to Wilson’s fantastic deep-ball, both from the pocket and while buying time with his legs; Wilson ranked second in the Deep Ball Project‘s 2018-19 grades.

This was all while throwing to pipsqueaks. Metcalf might be the most dangerous size / speed mismatch to enter the NFL ever. He will undoubtedly be on the receiving end of plenty Wilson bombs, and truly could not have landed in a better fantasy home than Seattle. Metcalf is my second-ranked rookie WR, behind only N’Keal Harry, and slides into the mid-80s on my first Post-Draft 2019 Fantasy Football Big Board.

Bottom Line: Pass-catching specialist, who? Christian McCaffrey returned to his college workhorse roots under new OC Norv Turner, and quickly put up Fantasy MVP-worthy numbers. He continued to flash his otherworldly receiving abilities, hauling in an NFL record 106 catches for 875 yards and 6 TDs. Yet where the usage really rose was the carries, as McCaffrey nearly doubled his 2017 total for 215 carries, 1080 yards, and 7 scores. These 321 total touches ranked third behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, and this newfound volume created the ultimate ceiling / floor combination. In the process, McCaffrey flashed both the elusiveness, breakaway ability, and most shockingly underrated power to redefine the workhorse model.

​New OC Norv Turner deserves immense credit for this outburst. His previous work with LaDanian Tomlinson proved he wasn't afraid to ride a smaller-back, as he's able to scheme his guys in space and in creative outside gaps versus just blasting them up the gut... but even still, never before had an NFL back played nearly 97% of the team's snaps. Yes, this number inevitably will fall in 2019, but McCaffrey should still hover around 85-90%, especially with Turner returning. Expect a similar buffet of weekly volume with the upside for even more efficiency should the Panthers beef up their line while their explosive young wideouts take a next step forward.

Ceiling Projection: 320 touches (100 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs

Floor Projection*: 270 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 7 TDs

Actual Projection: 310 touches (90 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games