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NFL Picks

NFL Picks Giants vs. Bucs: Over/Under Trends Predict Low Total

The Giants put up 49 points last week and it still wasn’t enough vs. the Saints. Meanwhile the Bucs scored enough to upset Atlanta. Let’s review the NFL odds & see who to include in our NFL picks.

Shootout on the Bayou
It was one for the ages. The Giants flew down to New Orleans and had a good old fashioned shootout with Drew Brees and the Saints. Eli Manning launched six touchdowns but in a game of anything-you-can-do-I-can-do-better Drew Brees did him exactly that - one better. The teams combined for 100 points in a game that the NFL oddsmakers hung at 51. By the time the first half ended so too did any hopes of this game going under as 49 points had already been rung up.

The Giants have had no problems lighting up the scoreboard this season, averaging 26.9 points per game which ranks them 5th in the league. Unfortunately their defense is not nearly as prolific, surrendering 26 points per game which places them near the bottom at 24th. The over has cashed in four of seven opportunities this season as the bookmakers have gotten in front of a landslide of high plays on Giants’ totals this season by hanging lofty numbers. Big Blue will be looking for opportunities to add to their stats when they meet the Bucs on Sunday afternoon.

Bucs Get Emotional Win
Bucs’ linebacker Kwon Alexander suited up to play the Falcons only two days after his younger brother was slain. It was an emotional time for Alexander and his teammates who proved that football is more than just the names on the roster and stats on a piece of paper. Tampa Bay stunned the Falcons in their own playground by the score of 22-20 and rewarded all those who bet them in their NFL picks either with the eight points they didn’t need or on the money line which returned +325.

Now the club returns home buoyed by that performance to take on Eli Manning and the New York Giants. Jameis Winston understands the Giants pass defense has been defenseless this season allowing a league worst 315.4 yards per game. Their opponent is certainly better defending the run but by no means among the elite ranking 19th and surrendering 112.1 yards on the ground. That could be welcome news for a team like Tampa Bay that likes to run and is ranked 4th averaging 131.3 yards rushing per game.

NFL Pick
I understand the knee-jerk reaction to go over in this one but be careful. The Giants have to be deflated after scoring all those points and still coming up short to the Saints. New York’s defense must also be humiliated to allow it to happen.

Conversely, the Bucs scored their biggest win of the season and could come into this one flat. It’s happened before and though the Giants are horrific at stopping the pass, the fact of the matter is Jameis Winston is not a prolific passer as the team’s 222 passing yards per game reflects. The Bucs like to run and they do it well. They will want to keep this one manageable by keeping Eli off the field. In order to do that they must keep the clock moving and let Doug Martin carry the rock. Martin only tallied 73 yards on 23 carries last week but he was pitted against Atlanta’s 3rd ranked run stop unit. The Giants pose no such threat.

Here are a few statistical reasons to support a relatively low scoring game between these two clubs.

Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven games in November.

Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last five games as a home underdog.

Under is 5-1 in Giants last six games as a road favorite.

Under is 11-3 in Giants last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.