Reports: Convention could be shortened to one day, or canceled entirely

posted at 4:41 pm on August 27, 2012 by Allahpundit

Forget the media concern-trolling about cancellation. There’s no way the RNC’s going to forfeit face time for Romney on national television by pulling the plug when the whole point of this week was to introduce voters to the softer, more human side of Mitt. Barring Isaac turning into a hypercane, there’ll be at least one night of convention proceedings with Romney as the star speaker, and it’s not hard to guess what he’ll say.

Planners are considering a range of options, depending on the vagaries of the storm. One of the worst-case scenarios would have Romney delivering a brief speech declaring the emergency bigger than politics, shuttering the convention, and turning the public’s attention to the Gulf Coast. Such a response would essentially be counter-programming to what people would expect from President Obama, one official said.

“That’s the worst-case scenario you just played out, and that might not be the worst-case scenario” politically for Romney if he’s seen as putting people ahead of politics, said the official who demanded anonymity.

If that’s not the worst-case scenario politically, what is? Obviously, Romney’s not going to give a red-meat speech pounding Obama if New Orleans is three feet underwater. A weather disaster means he’ll necessarily downshift into nonpartisan heal-the-nation statesman mode, but Obama will be in that mode too — at least until the Democratic convention opens next week — and, unlike Romney, Obama’s chances don’t depend in large part on one killer speech designed to successfully ingratiate him to the public. If Mitt loses that opportunity, it’s a problem, even though he’ll get credit for striking the right tone in focusing on the storm victims.

The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains…

Isaac’s storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 – 2 storm at the places where the city’s flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5′ to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans’ new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac’s surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.

What makes the timing tricky is that Tuesday’s usually the day for rhetorical bombthrowing at the convention, followed by a more optimistic tone on Wednesday and Thursday as the ticket is introduced. (Via the Daily Caller, see Krauthammer below for more on that.) The GOP can’t afford much of that this time. If tomorrow’s speakers go all out in attacking O and then disaster strikes New Orleans’s levees on Wednesday after Isaac comes ashore, the media will have a field day with the contrast. In fact, I’ve seen reports already that they’re planning de facto split-screen coverage. Imagine Romney laying into Obama in one window while a disapproving Chris Matthews points to the storm map in the other, shaking his head in exquisite, ineffable sadness. So much heart-ache, my friends.

Exit question via John Boehner: Would a one-day convention really be such a bad thing? Three hours on Thursday night: Ann Romney, Christie, Ryan, Rubio, and Mitt. That’s all you really need.

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I know the optics will look bad if the proceed as planned and there’s major damage along the coast, but I think it’s foolish to believe they’ll get credit for scaling it back or making the tone less partisan. The media will find fault with the fact they went ahead with anything at all.

Meanwhile, the Dems will proceed with their ‘kill Mitt’ convention and tear him a new one…the contrast between the two conventions won’t be the story then, either, it’ll be how they mauled Mitt.

The GOP can’t afford much of that this time, though. If tomorrow’s speakers go all out in attacking O tomorrow and then disaster strikes New Orleans’s levees on Wednesday after Isaac comes ashore, the media will have a field day with the contrast.

You know what? I said this in the Headlines thread about the birth certificate joke last week and I’m gonna say it again. F the media! Seriously. If their influence was so great, why is Obama dropping in the polls and why did his party get their asses whooped in the midterms(not to mention a bunch of other elections)? Why does it take an Achin-esque disaster of a candidate for them to have a chance to hold onto a key Senate seat?

The answer is because half the country knows they’re a bunch of partisan hacks and have tuned them out. So if they wanna run with whatever premanufactured narrative they’ve concocted with the Democrat Party, let them. What is politically stupid and suicidal is to gut the convention and pass up a chance to humanize Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan in front of tens of millions of viewers(and voters) just so we don’t p-ss off a bunch of media hacks who are predisposed to hating them no matter what they do or say.

Squish, squish, squish, goes the RINO squish convention. Who cares what the media thinks? We’ve got a damn country to save or is it now let’s not offend those moderates, they may vote for stupid again if we offend them. Jeesh this is bizzaro world.

Why they pick Tampa?? This is what happens when you pick a hurricane hot spot dab in the middle of hurricane season.

All I can say is this sickens me, losing the convention can really hurt Romney.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 27, 2012 at 4:51 PM

That’s what’s so asinine about this. It has nothing to do with Tampa. If we’re to believe this story, the Republican Party is actually contemplating reducing their convention to a single day just because bad weather may hit a completely different state. We had a damn convention in 2004 with 2 wars waging in the Middle East. We went ahead with the 2008 convention(after scrapping Monday) even though the Gulf was hit by a bad storm.

I hope this is just media chatter drummed up to give themselves something to talk about on a quiet news day, because if the GOP is really this cowardly, it doesn’t matter if they do win in November anyway because they’ll never have the stones to withstand the sh-tstorm that’ll hit them the moment they attempt to cut a single penny from the federal budget.

You’d better get your chit wired tight Republican Establishment. You will no longer tell us, you will listen to us and work us. Don’t screw this up as you’ve done for 20 some years or this will be the last collective Republican convention. I’m done with this pooky, pooky, antiquated centrist crap which is why we’re in the situation we’re in. It’s a whole new world Republicans so lead, follow or get the F out of our way. I don’t give a chit if we’re bombed by Iran, you get in there and bloody Obama up in a take no prisoner mind set or we lose which means you lose which means 2016 there will a 3rd party. And yes, after Bush I re-registered Independent. Friggin wimps……

I’m in Tampa and the sun has been shining today, with a few rain showers.

This will be a Cat-1 storm, probably. Why are they letting the LSM, and Tampa’s DEMOCRAT mayor run the show.?

Have the convention, if the storm turns out to be a Katrina, have all the power-players head to the damaged areas to get photo ops, I mean, help with the clean up.

Grow a pair, GOP.

stenwin77 on August 27, 2012 at 4:52 PM

I doubt the storm will even be a Cat-1. Meanwhile, the sheep-like GOP runs over the cliff bleating in terror. This is turning into the McCain campaign suspension. They should never have cancelled on Monday, all that did was give the press an opening to demand the entire convention be cancelled.

Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 – 2 storm at the places where the city’s flood walls and levees failed.

Pretty sure this is completely wrong. I went to a seminar by a Corps of Engineers guy about the levees, and I remember him saying that the storm surge was the surge of a larger storm, since the surge is created at sea. Even though the hurricane was a lower level when it made landfall, no one told the surge to dial it down. Also, the effect of Katrina tracking a bit to the east, if I remember the details, and then moving west was that the counterclockwise rotation of a hurricane meant that the storm surge was more perfectly positioned than the storm–that is, the storm surge isn’t largest on a track right along the eye, but is pushed in by the “arms” of the hurricane.

The levee system was also hampered by many mulitple jurisdictional authorities, and by the fact that the datum elevation keeps shifting.

I don’t know what details have been blurred with time, and it was just one seminar, but what I remember from it is totally at odds with the quote. The levees saw a much larger surge than a cat 3, iirc.

If NOLA is 3 ft under water, it will still be a mess when the DNC convenes. Will they cancel their convention?

Blake on August 27, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Does that even require a response? This is so stupid. If the GOP goes ahead with the convention and disaster hits the Gulf, their reaction to any hell they get from the media is very simple. Ok, if the Republicans are so insensitive to have the temerity to nominate their candidate when bad weather hits, then one can only assume the Democrats will lead by example and postpone or even cancel their convention. Right?

It’s harder than hell for us to get anywhere because of the dishonest media in this nation. Obama would love for Issac to strike New Orleans so he can conjure the ghost of Katrina Past and look ‘Presidential’ as the ‘Anti-Bush’ after a disaster. The media will then point their crooked little fingers at Romney and Republicans and say ‘Look Everyone. It’s Bush!’

That’s baloney, first of all, the storm surge from Katrina was a Cat 3 because it was a Cat 5 hurricane until shortly before landfall and the surge was already in motion. The existing levees would have handled a Cat 1 or 2 surge. I’m quite certain the new ones are more than adequate for this storm.

Nobody I know in New Orleans is leaving this time. It’s going to be a ton of rain in lots of the Gulf Coast areas, but we’re not going to see major destruction or loss of life.

We’re also going to see real leadership by Bobby Jindal and Marc Morial so there won’t be another Katrina episode in Louisiana. Much of the chaos we saw in 2005 was due to the blatant incompetenec of Ray Nagin and Kathleen Blanco. It will be a great display of a good Republican governor in charge and cooperating with a Democratic mayor.

The worst thing that will happen if the RNC proceeds is that some snarky liberals will point out how Republicans wouldn’t have spent the $15 billion on the new levees.

What frickin’ difference does it make since according to at least one poll NOBODY will be watching it but repubs and conservatives. Plus the wimpy Nets aren’t even covering it that much … or will they deliberately expande coverage so they can denounce and disparage the RNC?

I don’t doubt that the NBC-owned Weather Channel USED the RNC to blow the whole hurricane threat out of proportion by starting their 24×7 coverage looooong before the thing was a threat to the US and then so terribly misjudged where it was going just like the flaky loony crackpot maniacal moonbat east coast media did last year with Irene.

Go on with the show and let the leftistboobturds do and say what they’re gonna do and say cuz they’re gonna do and say it anyway no matter what happens.

Everyone back away from the ledge. Sheesh. Americans have a strong sense of fair play. If the storm turns out bad and the GOP cancels most of the convention, voters will wonder why the dems aren’t doing the same thing. After all, if it’s bad, the clean-up won’t even be underway by the time the dem convention starts. So they can overplay it, call it Katrina 2, and everyone will wonder why they’re continuing with THEIR convention in the face of all that suffering. And if the GOP end up canceling most of their event, voters will see three days of breathless, over-the-top dem coverage and know that, once again, the media is shoving a shit sandwich down their throats. Chillax, people. The dems aren’t as good at turning every crisis into an opportunity as people think they are. In fact they’re usually pretty damn clumsy with it.

Can’t imagine anyone else at HA other than Allah writing this post…everybody else probably refused to write it, am sure he volunteered :) on a different note, they should have held the convention here, in cali, there isn’t such a thing as surprise or extreme weather conditions here…

It’s harder than hell for us to get anywhere because of the dishonest media in this nation. Obama would love for Issac to strike New Orleans so he can conjure the ghost of Katrina Past and look ‘Presidential’ as the ‘Anti-Bush’ after a disaster. The media will then point their crooked little fingers at Romney and Republicans and say ‘Look Everyone. It’s Bush!’

Corporal Tunnel on August 27, 2012 at 5:01 PM

If Obama wants to go down to New Orleans to showboat, more power to him. But he’s the President. It makes a helluva lot more sense for him to visit a potential disaster area since he has the authority to issue federal funds to help them out. Aside from a photo op to show he cares, why would Romney need to be there?

Governors like Bobby Jindal are in place in the states threatened by Isaac. Barack Obama is the President. Mitt Romney has no control whatsoever over what sort of hurricane response occurs at the state or federal level, so there’s no logical reason why the convention should be affected at this.

So the entire campaign comes down to one Romney speech? lol wtf? Clown nose on, apparently… Or is this your brain on BuzzFeed?

cicerone on August 27, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Actually, yes. This speech is extremely important. This is Romney’s chance to appeal to tens of millions of voters after months of negative ads driving down his likeability ratings. He’s not gonna get another opportunity like this, even at the debates where the format will be controlled by members of the media. Add to that the speeches by Ann as well as Paul Ryan and this is a very important week for the GOP. It would behoove them to flip the media the figurative finger and go forward with their planned convention for the rest of the week.

I’m not in Tampa, but I’m in Florida, and I agree that there’s been far too much hyperventilating.

INC on August 27, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I’m in Tampa and agree completely that the overreacting is ridiculous. Yes, we’ve been getting hit by rain bands off and on all day and there have been some tornado warnings in parts of the state. But tomorrow and the rest of the week will be back to normal. Hot sunshine until afternoon thunderstorms cool things off. Typical Florida summer.

I know they’re probably worried about the optics of ‘partying’ while Isaac hits LA but, as so many other have said, the media will damn the RNC regardless of what actually happens.

Continue with the convention. If the hurricane comes ashore and causes significant damage, shorten the speeches some. Between speeches, put in live-feeds of the governors of the states hit (all Republicans) speaking to the nation about what they need, what the rest of the country can do, etc.

I doubt the storm will even be a Cat-1. Meanwhile, the sheep-like GOP runs over the cliff bleating in terror. This is turning into the McCain campaign suspension. They should never have cancelled on Monday, all that did was give the press an opening to demand the entire convention be cancelled.

Doomberg on August 27, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I agree.

First, Tampa was ground zero for the eye of the storm. Close down Tampa! WRONG.

Next: It’s headed for New Orleans and it’s going to be a whopper!
Prediction: Will go well west of New Orleans with only tropical storm winds.

If I didn’t know better, I’d say the “Global Warming” friendly organizations, NOAA and the Weather Channel, are putting their proverbial “Thumbs” on the storm forecast model. And after its over they can say Oops!, sorry we got that wrong and you had to cancel the convention.

The WORST thing for Romney to do would be to pull a McCain and essentially suspend his campaign.

Unless the safety of the convention goers is in jeopardy, the show must go on. It is understandable if office holders and delegates who have responsibilities back home need to cancel to take care of their job/home. It is not understandable for Romney or anyone else to shorten or cancel the convention.

Romney does not currently hold public office. If he were President, it would be a different story.

Let’s see how Obama and the Dems react next week when the Federal Government usually steps in to aid people who were to dumb or stubborn to leave evacuation zones. If the hurricane leaves a mess, then Obama should be the one cancelling on the convention so he can address the cleanup and aftermath of the hurricane.

Mitt Romney will be available to tour the devastated areas and look like an elder statesman. What can he do this week? Drive into the eye of the hurricane?

OK, I get you want to hold your convention in FL because of it potential to decide a Presidential election, but for goodness sake, Helloooooooooooo???? Late August / early September is the frickin’ height of the hurricane season on the East Coast???? You couldn’t figure this out and adjust dates a bit?? Or, better yet, move the convention to a state that’s got some land above friggin’ sea level?

Oh come on, Republicans, hold a three-day convention like the Dems will (because they couldn’t afford a four-day convention). The hurricane is moving AWAY from Tampa, and Gov. Jindal will get everybody out of harm’s way–he cancelled his speech at the RNC to hold down the fort at home.

If Isaac hits Nawlins as a Cat-1 or 2 and the levees hold, all the media can say about Isaac is that with a competent Governor, Louisiana can survive a hurricane, just like Florida survived four hurricanes in 2004 and George W. Bush (the Governor’s brother) won the state in November.

Let the Convention go on–We the People have been suffering for 3 1/2 years under Obummer, long before Isaac started blowing on hot air and spinning to the left, like the Lame Stream Media.

Oh, no, Boehner! We’ve lived through the last 4 years of never-ending hell and we’ve earned 3 full days of speeches and rants and cheers and balloons. I’m very sorry about the possibility of New Orleans getting hit again, but our canceling the convention isn’t going to make any difference. None whatsoever (it didn’t do us any good in MN, did it?)

We get no good will from sacrificing and we need the cheerleading. We don’t up the spirit, we lose and as a consequence the country and the world loses.