2014 Broncos Preview: Offense

Ted BartlettSep 2, 2014 2:30 PM

Happy Tuesday, friends. I decided to write some season preview content over the next few days, since I spent most of the month of August buried with fiscal year-end work, and since I’ll spend half of September traveling. When the time to write presents itself, I’ll write.

Today, I want to write about the Broncos. This article will cover offense, and another one discussing the defense will follow tomorrow. I’ll also get into projecting the rest of the AFC and the NFC.

That’ll take us right to kickoff of the Packers-Seahawks season opener, and from there, we’ll see what we’ll see.

So, given that, let’s start with the home team. This has been a most unusual preseason for the Broncos, because I don’t feel like I really learned very much that I didn’t know before. A few players near the bottom of the roster, like Juwan Thompson and Brandon Marshall, distinguished themselves, and showed more than I thought they had, but they’re probably not going to play major roles throughout the 19-game season.

The Broncos are just too good, and too deep for fringe guys to emerge at meaningful levels. The fact that this happened last year with a guy like Duke Ihenacho, and the related fact that he just got waived shows the difference between the depth of the 2014 Broncos vs. that of the 2013 Broncos.

I thought I’d share some thoughts, position-by-position, and then tie it all up with a little orange and blue bow. Or something.

Quarterback

Obviously, the chances of the 2014 Broncos ride heavily on the health and productivity of Peyton Manning. In the preseason, he threw the ball very well, and seemed to be in good health. A reality of 2013 that will be little-remembered is that Manning played a significant portion of the season with an injured ankle.

I’ve seen it said a couple of times that Manning can’t possibly match last season’s success, and regression to the mean, and blah blah blah. Don’t buy any of it – if Manning and his key offensive teammates stay healthy, the Broncos can improve on their success of 2013.

As for Brock Osweiler, I think this team would probably still win the AFC West if Manning got hurt and nobody else did. Osweiler’s talent is apparent when he has played, and he showed a lot of improvement over last preseason. I really don’t expect him to be the “QB of the future” (that stupid reporter concept) for the Broncos, because I think Manning can and will play for several more seasons. Osweiler is talented enough to play well in the NFL, though.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos draft another young guy next year, and reset the developmental program, similar to what the Patriots just did with Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Mallett. I can only hope the Broncos get more than a conditional seventh-rounder for Osweiler, though, lest his detractors drop dead from an acute case of the vapors.

Zac Dysert has enough talent to be a quality long-term backup. I’m glad to see him back on the practice squad.

Running Back

I was a little skeptical of the Broncos’ decision to let Knowshon Moreno walk this offseason, because he was the unsung hero of the team in 2013. I wasn’t sure about Montee Ball’s ability to play in the Broncos’ passing game, but I feel better based on what I saw in his only preseason action. He caught the ball well, and did okay blocking, in a small sample. There’s no doubt that Ball is more dynamic with the ball than Moreno is, though.

Ronnie Hillman is listed second on the depth chart right now, but it will probably only take one or two fumbles before he loses that status. He still seems to be what he’s always been – a fast, but not particularly shifty guy who goes down like he’s made of paper.

C.J. Anderson is a pretty interesting guy, and I like the way he runs behind his pads. He’s a little bit similar to Ball, in that his natural run skills have been more evident than his abilities in the passing game.

I think that it may not be long before Juwan Thompson is playing on a lot of third downs for the Broncos. He doesn’t have the look and feel of the traditional “scatback” third-down guy, and he’s a rookie, but he came from a sophisticated passing offense at Duke, and I like the way he’s looked as a blocker in the preseason. No, Peter Kings of the world, a third-down back doesn't necessarily need to be small.

Kapri Bibbs scored a few touchdowns against third stringers in the preseason, and he will have a chance to develop his skills on the practice squad. I saw some people calling him a touchdown machine on Twitter Thursday night, though, and that’s pretty premature.

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas has grown up to be one of the five or so best receivers in the NFL. He’s always been big, fast, and strong, but what put him in the highest tier of receivers has been his continual improvement as a route runner. He’s set himself way apart from the majority of the linear size-speed guys with the fluidity of his breaks. He’s also the only Broncos receiver who didn’t play like he was scared in the Super Bowl, and he gets love from me for that.

Emmanuel Sanders really impressed me with his work in the preseason. I always viewed him as an average second or third receiver when he was in Pittsburgh, but he seems to have really taken to more of a precision/timing centered offense (small sample alert). I think he'll definitely be tougher than Eric Decker, who is a good player whom I think most of us got tired of by the end of his run.

Wes Welker probably should retire, but it doesn’t appear that he’s going to. I never really felt like the Broncos used him as heavily as the Patriots did, to where a lot of plays were set up to primarily get him the ball. He did well for the Broncos, though, in a support role, and it’s reasonable to expect him to do so again if he can keep his head safe.

I thought that Cody Latimer looked raw in the preseason, but you could see his evident talent at times too. You never like to see a guy get a concussion on the field, but the block that Latimer threw on Antoine Bethea was pretty serious. I expect a developmental year from Latimer, and I think that he’ll be a star on special teams right away.

Andre Caldwell is a reliable pro who has value in knowing the offense. Isaiah Burse looks like just a guy to me; I hope he can help as a punt returner, but really, I wouldn’t be surprised if Welker ends up with that job.

Tight End

In keeping with the rest of this article, this looks like it will be a good group. Of course, it starts with Julius Thomas, who of course, emerged from the fringes of the roster last year, in a more real and lasting way than Ihenacho did. Thomas finally stayed healthy and learned how to play as a down-the-seam receiver. His growth area is as a blocker, where he usually loses.

Jacob Tamme has a lot of familiarity with Manning, and he’s a proficient flex/slot kind of TE. Tamme isn’t athletically dynamic, but he is a reliable chain-mover. He’s also a good special teams player, after not playing much in the kicking game in his earlier years.

Virgil Green is more of a two-way TE than either Thomas or Tamme. My pal Jeff Legwold has been making himself hard over thoughts of a “three yards and a cloud of dust” Broncos team playing 13 personnel, and I find that unlikely. I do see Green playing a good deal in 12 personnel though, and the fact that he can play fullback is also useful. He’s actually a better receiver than people think, too.

Offensive Line

After watching the Super Bowl, one of my lasting impressions was that the bill had finally come due on Ryan Clady’s injury. Clady is one of the best left tackles in the NFL, and I had gotten used to the idea that the Broncos had overcome his loss. Against the best pass rushers, though, Chris Clark was overmatched. Clady has outstanding feet, and he looked better each game in the preseason, over limited snaps.

The Broncos moved Orlando Franklin to left guard this year, and he should be an upgrade over the departed Zane Beadles. Franklin won’t be as quick in the pulling/trapping game as Beadles, but he’ll be more stout with his anchor in pass protection. His lack of lateral quickness will be hidden by the fact that he has other blockers along both sides of him; he got beaten a lot to the edge by the elite left-side pass rushers over the last three years.

Manny Ramirez did a good job at center last season after moving over from guard. He struggled in the Super Bowl, but Pro Football Focus had him fourth in the NFL in 2013. I expect him to continue to improve, and to do a quality job inside.

Louis Vazquez came in from San Diego as a fairly high-dollar free agent signing, and he delivered excellent value on that contract. PFF had him as the NFL’s third best guard, and best right guard. Vazquez is a bit unusual in the fact that he doesn’t use his hands very much or very well, but he’s quite effective with what he does do. His three penalties in 2013 were two more than he’d had in his entire career to date.

Clark moves in at right tackle, and I think that he’ll be an upgrade there over Franklin, particularly as he gets more accustomed to having his hands and feet be backward from what used to be. As I said about three years ago, the NFL has evolved to the point where teams try to have quality speed rushers on both sides. That leaves teams in the position of needing right tackles with left tackle feet and skills. That’s what I expect to see from Clark.

As good as the starters are for the Broncos, which is maybe the best in the NFL, the backups aren’t so great. Paul Cornick seems to have won the job as the swing tackle, because he looked a lot more ready to play than rookie Michael Schofield. I saw Schofield get dominated a lot of the time, and I think he's going to be a gameday inactive most of the time.

Center Will Montgomery was signed to compete with Ramirez, and he seemed to lose the battle decisively. Still, though, he’s played a lot of football, and he’s the only backup lineman I have much faith in.

Finally, there’s Ben Garland, who’s had a lot of digital ink spilled about him lately. He looked like he’s starting to get some skills as an offensive lineman this preseason, and maybe there’s something there in addition to his gritty, lunch-pail, blue-collarness that captivates football writers so.

That’s what I have for now, friends. Check me out tomorrow for some discussion about the defense.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

I don't agree that Clark will be an upgrade over Franklin. Against Indy last year, Mathis had no effect in the first part of the game lined up against Franklin. When he switched to the other side, he beat Clark several times - injuring Manning's ankles and causing a safety.

I think the two of them have different strengths and weaknesses - I don't know how that will balance out.

Posted by billyricky on 2014-09-03 19:26:43

First offense for PEDs is a 4-game suspension.

Posted by billyricky on 2014-09-03 19:24:05

Very much agree (with you, Goéland) about Burse. If he can continue to make catches like he did in PS game 4, he'll be a strong addition to the WR corps. And I also liked the potential I see in his return abilities.

Posted by Carsonic on 2014-09-03 07:01:49

You make a fair assessment. Not trying to discredit you or Juwan. Obviously he is doing something right or the discussion wouldn't exist at all. Also, he made the roster. Suggesting he did similar in practice.

Hard to find a Danny, Malik or Chris out there. If Juwan has the work ethic to do 50 to 70% of what Manning does to succeed, I'd put money on him climbing a depth chart. He has shown he has the ability to have skill.

My Mother had 4 children and she always told me, its learning HOW to motivate the different personalities that made it work. If Fox or Manning (or Juwan) can motivate Juwan to put that kind of work in, I think he has it. Big IF though.

Posted by RyanHennigan on 2014-09-03 00:17:54

WTF, Wes?

Posted by C$ Money on 2014-09-02 19:18:28

time to step it up Sanders, Caldwell and Cody.

Posted by underdog on 2014-09-02 18:59:13

Oof. Welp, I was about to debate whether it'd be sane to have Welker return kicks and now it won't matter for at least 4 weeks anyway.

Joan Niesen @JoanNiesen: Well that's one method of concussion prevention. RT @AdamSchefter Wes Welker has been suspended four games for use of amphetamines.

Posted by underdog on 2014-09-02 18:58:37

Yeah, I understand how a small sample size can impact that perception. I think to some degree, I believe that the "eye test" is supposed to account for those considerations and strip it down to a question of raw ability based on that small sample size - no more, no less. There's always the caveat of seeing how well a player who has only seen limited action will perform under different circumstances.

I think there are cases where you can attribute a player's success to a lack of talent on the other side of the ball and there are cases where it's not so clear that similar production would be achieved. I guess hindsight is always 20/20, but I'm pretty sure I never once questioned whether Chris Harris, Danny Trevathan or Malik Jackson would be able to contribute on the field once I watched them play several snaps in preseason. Those are just 3 that come to mind based on low draft position and recency.

But that's the fun in looking at all these young players, right? Sometimes you hit, most of the time you miss.

Anyway, sorry for the ramble. The wait and see approach is fair, but I guess I was looking for high hives from folks who have similar overreactions when a player shows he could be the next Chris Harris or Danny Trevathan for us. Go Broncos.

Posted by Jon Rivers on 2014-09-02 18:44:26

Thanks for writing this Ted, I appreciate your perspective.

Enjoy your security screenings. /obligatory TSA rant

//I hate flying, it's boring and a pain

Posted by Lance Baxter on 2014-09-02 18:03:28

I think it is safe to say that this is Welker's last year here and I think your assessment of the number of games he will play is fair (possibly optimistic). I also see Latimer getting the snaps near the goaline. He is a taller target than Welker and I'll bet he is more sure-handed.

Latimer still has leaps and bounds to go as far as cutting in his routes. If you think back to the couple of highlights he had; one was a simple go route the other was a rub. Never route needs a good cut or break to create separation. His athleticism is evident and I think he has more upside then Decker without a doubt.

Let DMT and Peyton school this guy on route running and I bet by week 12 of this year, you will see improvements. Should come into his own next year. The best part is, he can already block and uses his body well to screen DBs.

Posted by Ryan Hennigan on 2014-09-02 17:48:12

Nice summary Ted and agreed on most counts, but have a couple of thoughts: first, I don't know that anyone was getting tired of Decker by the end of his tenure here. He did well, but Sanders may be a better fit with the current personnel. And to suggest that Welker may return punts is I think, a little weak - he doesn't have the best hands and has a head of glass; it just strikes me as insane, but I don't have an alternative suggestion to Burse. Thanks again - looking forward to your coming defense and rest of the league reviews!

Posted by SteveS on 2014-09-02 17:38:59

Not worried about backs or TEs at all. Not worried about a plan B at QB either.

The O-Line depth is my primary offensive concern. That said, Denver has avenues beyond the roster/PS at its disposal like trades or waivers too.

WRs is a really interesting study. I think it's safe to assume that Welker doesn't play more than 12-13 games. If not, where do his reps go? More 2 TE sets? More Tamme? More Caldwell/Latimer?

I also wonder if Sanders was brought in to take Welker's spot (in the case of injury or just next year after Welker is a FA). Even if Manning keeps going beyond this season, Welker probably won't stick around in Denver beyond this year.

Frankly, I'm loving Latimer. Guy has Decker's body but is more athletic, faster, and he'd have to work hard to drop as many balls as Decker did. With increased reps, I have to imagine he's gonna be tough for the other team's CB2 or CB3 to have to deal with.

Posted by Super7 on 2014-09-02 17:28:21

I think the smart thing to do is hold off judgement. When the sample size is small, one or 2 outliers really skew data.

What we have seen so far is: Blocks well, possibly better than the other 3 backs. Plays with power, seems to fall forward for an extra yard and trucked that guy on the wheel route. Catches ok, nothing special but does his job. Vision, I saw at least one fantastic cutback were the run was going outside but Juwan saw and small opening. Speed, he is deceptive cause he is fluid. Burst, haven't seen much burst but he does cut well without loosing speed.

So as great as that all sounds, he was mostly playing against lower level talent. So his speed might not look as good against a #1 defense. As stated before, the sample size is about 30 plays total so 1 good cutback, 1 good power hit, 1 good catch all look great but it might be happenstance and not a full on talent.

Let us pump the breaks and see what happens.

Posted by Ryan Hennigan on 2014-09-02 16:45:21

Interesting read as always, Ted. Leaving aside the matter of Osweiler (because why even bother discussing him before he plays a full NFL game?), I tend to agree with most of what you wrote. I´m still a bit worried about Montee´s blocking skills, given how studly Knowshon was at it and how inexperienced Ball is in that area, but I do expect the running game to be more explosive this year.

I´m a bit higher than you on Burse, though. I think he could become a decent slot receiver in time, and above all, I really, really hope he´ll earn the punt returner position, because putting Welker there would be borderline criminal, seriously. From what we saw of his skills, I actually expect Burse to do quite well in those situations; he´s decisive and very shifty in small areas, no doubt, so as long as he avoids fumbles, I´m not above begging all of Fox´ distant ancestors to intervene stealthily so he puts him back there and preserves Welker for what really matters.

Posted by Goéland on 2014-09-02 15:59:45

That´s a good question, and I´d really like to see Ted or anyone else with knowledge of OL play expand on that.

Posted by Goéland on 2014-09-02 15:43:03

Is there such thing as passing the eye test in a preseason game? Juwan Thompson looks like he's in a different gear out there than most 3rd-4th team runningbacks. I know --- every year we see a guy who plays well in preseason blah blah. Saying, Thompson looks like an NFL ball player on the field, which is strange considering how he comes from Duke and wasn't even the centerpiece of their offense.

What are we missing with this guy, Ted? In other words, do you agree that he looks the part or are you holding judgement until we see him against a 1st team D?

Posted by Jon Rivers on 2014-09-02 14:55:59

I'm wondering what you thought of Painter - was Cornick the right choice over him? We've since lost Painter to another team.