About Me

Monday, 9 January 2017

Time To Start Worrying?

The Great Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un has been saying that he
intends to make use of intercontinental ballistic missiles to make war.

Given the complications of the internal politics of that state it is not
clear what may happen. It may not be something that can be settled by last
minute frantic efforts by those who want to avoid the worst.

The present issue of North Korea has a long history, beginning in 1950
with the outbreak of the Korean War which lasted until 1954, one of the
nastiest conflicts of the modern era.

In April 2013 I put on a post about this, below.

Quote:

Long ago, when a teenager, it was that long ago, the question of Korea
came up. At the end of the introductory
training for National Service in the Army the issue of where you might be
posted to arose. In those not so happy
days it could be anywhere. A lot of
those places had disadvantages.

These included wars, places with terrorists (or freedom fighters if you
insist), places that were very hot and dry, others hot and steamy, others cold
and wet; there was plenty of choice.
Even London was possible, if you wanted to risk your lungs and liver.

Except that there was not a choice.
Someone in the deepest recesses of the War Office would rush out into
the street, find a passing beggar and pay him a quid or two to pick the names
of the sack blindfolded.

At least that was the theory and was regarded as the only rational
explanation at the time for the way people were selected for the vacancies on
offer. When the time came for our time
for this particular lottery of life the nerves were twitching.

In the squad a couple of keen types had volunteered for Korea on the
grounds that they would have rapid promotion and it would be good for their
CV’s, if that is, they returned in one piece if at all. We were all deeply grateful to them as the
rest of us skiving louts were desperate for a cushy number close to the bright
lights.

In the event, most of us were packed off to Germany where the forces
were being strengthened because of uncertainties. The rest were scattered about largely in the
UK. Of the two Korea volunteers one
finished up at Nuneaton and the other on the staff at a military prison out in
the wilds.

But there were stories about Korea and it is difficult to convey the
views of us at the time without breaching all the present requirements to avoid
being judgemental or unkind on ethnic grounds on those from the North.

These arose not just from people who had been in the Korean War, but
others from elsewhere in the Pacific where those of the North had some
notoriety. Those who had been in
Japanese Prison Camps during WW2 asserted that the worst places to be were
those with North Korean guards who had volunteered for this duty.

The views today would seem extreme but to us at the time were regarded
as well founded. One certainty was that
mentally they were in another Universe and it was one to be avoided at all
costs.

Sixty odd years ago the Korean War broke out because China was backing
the North in their immediate post revolutionary period. Russia was bidding for their friendship in
the struggles of the Cold War. Remember
that Russia is a Far Eastern power and not just a Western one.

Japan at that time was not independent and only in a supporting role to
the USA. The USA was determined to stop
Communism wherever it emerged. Between
the contests of all these powers it became impossible to agree either a peace
or a way forward that avoided conflict.

If we have another muddle of ambitions and failures to come to terms
among the great Pacific powers in how the North Korean problem can be addressed
then it could turn bad but this time round with far wider economic consequences
than in the late 1940’s.

South Korea is now a small but important part in an industrial and
financial globalised world. We cannot
afford to see it wrecked out of the mixture of spite and stupidity that
motivates the regime in the North.

Essentially, Moscow and Beijing need to cooperate quickly and
effectively and to work with the USA and Japan to defuse the whole
situation. Any idea of relying on normal
human or political thinking in North Korea can be forgotten. They do not work like that and never have
done.

Our media, government and others do not seem to realise the risks they
are taking in just hoping it is just another passing row. At some time that simply may not be the case.

Unquote.

This time round the USA may no longer be able to do what is necessary or
to afford any major campaign. Also, it is difficult to see who else could except
China. So who is there to check this "dictator" and the generals who
are doing the dictating?