GOP debates enter elimination round

When the GOP presidential candidates meet in Michigan Wednesday for a CNBC debate on the economy, they’ll no longer be looking to make a first impression. With less than two months to go before the Iowa caucuses, there’s a much more urgent objective: survival.

With the exception of front-runner Mitt Romney — and perhaps Ron Paul, the libertarian congressman whose devoted base of support never really diminishes or grows — nearly every candidate in the race is almost one misstep away from political death.

“Voters have formed general impressions of most of the candidates by this point, but a mixed or poor impression hasn’t been fatal,” said Dan Schnur, a former adviser to John McCain’s 2000 campaign. “Going forward, any problems become much more damaging because the clock is ticking.”

Schnur, who now directs the University of Southern California’s Unruh Institute of Politics, said Cain had helped speed up the winnowing process: “We were probably going to get to this point pretty soon anyway, but the controversy surrounding Cain’s campaign may be serving as a reminder to voters of the stakes involved here.”

Michigan Republican National Committeeman Saul Anuzis, a Romney supporter, suggested debates were increasingly about “which people make the mistakes and have the most to lose, not the most to gain.”

“Usually there’s a loser in a debate, not necessarily a winner,” said Anuzis. “I think there will be a desire by all the candidates to stay on [economic] issues and focus on those issues. The question is whether we will get pulled away by the Cain stuff or something else.”

Cain signaled in a press conference Tuesday that he hopes to move on from battling charges of personal misconduct and get back to talking about policy. With his poll numbers holding up in the low-20 percent range, it’s clear that some of his fans have been giving him the benefit of the doubt so far.

The CNBC debate – the ninth of the year, and the sixth involving the full GOP presidential field – will test Cain’s ability to hold on to those supporters and turn the page on the worst week of his campaign.