A couple points worth making. One, the 1.5% change in inventories is the biggest decline since 1992, when records started being compiled. Two, durable goods inventories dropped 2.4% which is also the biggest decline on record.

It’s only one data point but when you put it together with others I’ve noted over the past month, the trend is changing. Though it might be flat at worst, we are seeing a change in the overall direction of economic indicators. It may be too soon to break out the champagne but we can probably stop thinking about drinking the hemlock.