Extreme weather events on the rise

Scientists say 2011 saw record number of floods, tornadoes; more to come

By ERIC BERGER, Hearst Newspapers

Published 9:46 pm, Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Photo: Mel Evans

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Homes, businesses, even a church are flooded Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011, near the Passaic River in Paterson, N.J., as the effects of Hurricane Irene continue to leave areas of northern New Jersey flooded. Flooding continues to hamper recovery efforts from Hurricane Irene in northern new Jersey while residents can begin seeking aid under a disaster declaration signed by President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Mel Evans) less

Homes, businesses, even a church are flooded Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011, near the Passaic River in Paterson, N.J., as the effects of Hurricane Irene continue to leave areas of northern New Jersey flooded. ... more

Photo: Mel Evans

Extreme weather events on the rise

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A record number of costly weather events — from floods and droughts to tornadoes — ravaged the United States in 2011, federal scientists said Wednesday.

Scientists say the unprecedented number of disasters may not be an aberration."We have good reason to believe that what happened this year is not an anomaly, but instead is a harbinger of what is to come," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in an interview.

In its report NOAA noted a number of records set, including the Texas drought, which was the most intense this summer in 117 years of records, and the 199 tornadoes on April 27, which were the most on record for any single day in the United States.

Federal officials attributed the increase in disasters and their costs to several factors, including a larger population, more people with insured property living in vulnerable areas such as coastlines, and a warming climate. "Extreme weather and associated societal impacts have increased in recent years," said Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service. "With our changing climate the nation must be prepared for more frequent extreme weather."

NOAA's analysis of billion dollar disasters, which includes tornado outbreaks, damage from Hurricane Irene, Mississippi River flooding and winter storms, comes less than three weeks after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report on extreme weather events in the future.

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That report concluded there was "medium confidence" that droughts, floods and heat waves would intensify in the future. However the report also stated, "In many regions, the main drivers for future increases in economic losses due to some climate extremes will be socioeconomic in nature, (rather than climate extremes)."

Some scientists say that is what's happening in the United States, rather than climate driving an increase in extreme weather. "Anyone asserting that they can see a climate change signal in U.S. disaster losses is making a scientifically unsupportable claim," said Roger Pielke Jr., an environmental studies researcher at the University of Colorado.