American politics

There can be only one

AFTER nearly two years of a seemingly endless campaign, voters go to the polls today to choose the next president of the United States. It has been a long, strange trip. Neither candidate was favoured to be their party's nominee at the start of this political saga. John McCain, many will remember, nearly dropped out of the race before it had started. Barack Obama was up against one of the most formidable political machines in history, or so it seemed. But both candidates made it through the grueling primary season (more so for the Democrats) and the choice America was left with seemed like a decent one to us. We called it "America at its best".

It was not. We had hoped for a proper debate about policies, but instead watched a fight over image, associations, and who could be more populist. After breaking his pledge to accept public financing, Mr Obama spent more money than any presidential candidate in history. Mr McCain surprised everyone by picking an underqualified governor from Alaska as his running mate. The electoral college moved this way and that way. All predictions went out the window.

But for all the shortcomings of the campaign, both candidates offer hope of national redemption. And so we are seeing record voter turnout around the country today. The first polls close at 7pm (EST) and then we will be inundated with exit polls and results. Our correspondents from around the country will be watching the results and commenting here. We hope you will too.

12:20: Well, now it's time to obsess over who is going to be in the cabinet and how large our next stimulus cheques should be. That's a wrap, folks. Thanks as always to our excellent commenters. Next liveblog: the State of the Union.

12:16: That's statesmanship. Good night, y'all.

12:14: Mr Obama nails the closing. A good speech. Now, Mr Obama, it's time to govern.

12:12: Mr Obama invokes the New Deal. That'll make some people nervous.

12:11: Mr Obama is spending a lot of time on foreign policy in this speech, certainly more than he has in his speeches over the last few weeks.

12:06: The road America needs to travel is steep, Mr Obama says. We might not get there "in one year or even one term", he says. He simultaneously tries to lower expectations about his presidency and kicks off his reelection bid.

12:03: David Plouffe gets a shoutout before David Axelrod. Careful, Mr Obama, or Mr Axelrod might keep pretending that he's not going to follow you to Washington.

11:58: Mr Obama needs to be wary of triumphalism. So far his speech seems to be: America did something great today by electing me. A nice acknowledgment of Mr McCain's service, though.

11:51: And, now, the awkward time between the candidates' speeches.

11:39: Eight years ago George Bush said in his inaugural speech what I still think is the most beautiful thing that can be said about America. He said that America is not a perfect country, but it is a country that can fix its mistakes, that can right the worst of its wrongs. I believe that's true. I believe we can slowly step back from our worst; I think it's good enough, and I think that's as good as a system gets.

11:39: The woman is singing and I'm out of snark.

11:35: The New York Times home page looks like "Man Walks on Moon".

11:31: McCain's speech reminded me of the patriot that he is, or was. It was a fine concession speech.

11:30: "Whether they supported me or Senator Obama, I wish godspeed to the man who was my opponent, and will be my president." A nice speech from Senator McCain. Disconcerting that the crowd booed several mentions of Mr Obama, but a nice speech from Mr McCain.

11:26: I always feel most sympathetic to politicians when they concede. They always do it with such class. Also, I am embarrassed to report that I know for a fact that John McCain's exit music comes from the movie "Crimson Tide," in which a grizzled old sub captain, a career Navy man, is fought and bested by a younger, Harvard-educated black executive officer.

11:21: John McCain pleads for goodwill and unity. It takes less than a minute for the crowd to start booing again.

11:20: There's less applause here than even a normal concession speech. "Governor Sarah Palin" by far the best response yet.

11:17: John McCain is talking. "The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly", he says. And he speaks a lot about the significance of electing the first black president. A classy speech. He seems to be taking this well.

11:17: Oh God, Jesse Jackson is crying, and there are no fair jokes to make there--and there are a lot of jokes to be made about Jesse Jackson--but that's just moving. He's sobbing. It's a big deal.

11:16: Wow, wow. We can talk about the expectations tomorrow and for the next four years...but right now this feels like, "Hello, America. Hello, world."

11:14: Al Sharpton has been sighted at the Obama rally in Chicago. His arms are crossed, he is holding hands with his neighbors and swaying, and he is glad he never threatened to emasculate anyone.

11:12: My Lord. Barack Obama may yet win Indiana.

11:06: Mr Gergen just quotes from Martin Luther King Jr., "I've seen the promised land."

11:03: It took Wolf Blitzer three minutes to invoke the Declaration of Independence. And half of CNN's panel looks to be on the verge of tears.

11:03: And yes, Mr Obama hit 92% in DC.

11:00: And it's official. Barack Obama will be the 44th president of the United States. And we don't even have to worry about Florida.

10:59: That's VA, and that's the ballgame.

10:58: Jeff Toobin offers the mesmerising observation that 2008 marks the 5th consecutive election when the candidate with the more extensive military record lost. I think we have a new competitor for the Weekly World News Alien...

10:54: Virginia called by Fox News.

10:52: When this election is over, can we stop calling people "folks"?

10:52: Will.i.am was pretty excited to be a hologram. The Rocky Mountain News is calling Colorado for Obama.

10:49: Indeed, Orange. The hologram is very Darth Vader reporting to the Emperor.

10:48: Will.I.Am. has joined CNN as a hologram. Or maybe the champagne is taking hold.

10:47: Best answer of the night comes from Charles Ogletree, a Harvard law professor who knew both Obamas in law school. Jon Stewart asked him if he was a radical. "Not yet," he said. "But it's still early."

10:39: A friend of mine suggests Mrs Palin should go on Deadliest Catch.

10:35: In my pet race in Virginia's 5th District, the AP has retracted its call for Republican incumbent Virgil Goode. It's now a toss-up, with 97% reporting at a 700 vote difference.

10:32: Orange, we've also got a brace of Nicolas Feuillate ready to pop.

10:30: One of the folks next to me asks perhaps the most important question about the next four (well, the next two, at least) years: What are we going to do without Sarah Palin? I hope we find a sensible balance between her being vice president and her falling so far off the radar screen that we can't mock her comical unsuitability for high office.

10:27: Mr Purple, if David Gergen looks like a potato chip, what does John Murtha look like?

10:26: D/L, I like this flotsam from Vermont. Do you ever feel that your state is a bit too smug? How does it compare to Texas in self-satisfaction?

9:24: Steve Forbes on Comedy Central: it was the credit crisis that did John McCain in. Could it not also be that John McCain's response to the credit crisis did John McCain in? Also: Steve Forbes? They couldn't book Bill Bradley?

10:23: Steve Forbes is on Comedy Central with Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. It's almost unbelievable that this man ran for president and won voters outside of his immediate family. He has slightly more charisma than his coffee mug. Sometimes.

10:23: I'm sorry, Mr Red, I'm getting wine goggles for James Carville

10:21: CNN reports that two McCain aides see "no path to victory". Let the recriminations begin. Thanks to Sarah Palin, this post-mortem could be even more acrimonious than the one that followed Hillary Clinton's implosion.

10:21: So do tonight's results reflect two years of Democratic work, or eight years of Mr Bush's work?

10:19: Looks like the Republicans hold both Senate seats in Mississippi, and Saxby Chambliss held on in Georgia.

10:18: Had to take a break to serve the homemade buckeye balls. We're holding off so far on the key-lime pie.

10:17: Ol' McC, the people at my party are civilians, not hacks. This is Austin, not DC. I agree with you about Mr Romney, though.

10:16: It seems the booze is setting in, a member of my party just asked "what do we know about the results in Virginia, and what do we know about North Korea?"

10:16: Orange, we're working through a shiraz and two types of Delirium Tremens over here.

10:12: I'd also like to invite any others to tell us what kinds of champagne are on hand in their parties tonight. We're rolling with Veuve Cliquot Ponsardin, Bollinger, and some Dom Perignon. We feel confident that no matter what happens, we will be happy.

10:11: Yes, Green, but then George Bush 41 would have deposed him.

10:11: Well, John Cornyn won re-election over Rick Noriega. My take on this is that Mr Noriega could have run an ever-so-slightly more vigorous campaign.

10:09: Wow, that is some very lacklustre flag-waving at McCain HQ.

10:05: James Carville looks like Skeletor on botox. And maybe some cheek implants.

10:03: We've had a pinotage, a pinot noir and now a cheverny tonight. It really helps to lubricate these results.

10:01: MSNBC calls Utah for Mr McCain and Iowa for Mr Obama and Keith Olbermann says reports from the McCain campaign say "the magnitude of the night" is starting to sink in. Did Hank Jr let some poll numbers slip?

10:01: Iowa for Obama. A nice touch, as it set him on the path that will lead him to the presidency.

9:57: The champagne corks are popped and suddenly everyone in the room loves Mr McCain and feels sort of chummy with Sarah Palin.

9:55: CNN's panel begins its autopsy of the McCain campaign, talking about how all that money Mr Obama had must have helped. Sounds about like what they've been saying for the last week and a half. I'm not saying that this race was predictable but...well, that is what I'm saying.

9:35: The "Obama, Obama, Obama"chant going on in Grant Park sounds like the "He's the biggest celebrity in the world" ad from August. Forty percent of the country thinks its worst fears just came true.

9:34: CNN...projects Ohio. Good thing we got those commercials in.

9:30: Indeed, Green, Mr Obama now has the map John Kerry wanted.

9:31: Now everyone's got Ohio for Obama. It's hard to find a path left for McCain.

9:31: Florida is so close, it gives me agita.

9:30: North Carolina is so close, it gives me agita.

9:29: Virginia is so close, it gives me agita.

9:25: Is it possible that CNN is stretching out its calls over commercial breaks? I see a network like NBC/MSNBC call Ohio, and then CNN tells me, a major call is coming...after the break.

9:24: CNN says that it's on the verge of making "a big projection". I wonder what THAT could be...

9:22: MSNBC calls Ohio for Mr Obama!

9:22: You know, it may be several hours and a good few drinks too early for this, but David Gergen's combover resembles, to me, a perfectly made and rather elegant potato chip, of the classic Utz/Wise variety. Thoughts?

9:20: Mitch McConnell survives. The Democrats might yet be able to blame any and all failures over the next couple of years on the fact that they didn't have a filibuster-proof majority.

9:20: Now we're looking for a credible news source.

9:19: Fox News projects Ohio for Obama...

9:19: Fox calls Ohio with Karl Rove standing at Brit Hume's left hand. Fox is just not as busy as the other networks. No interns sitting at laptops in the background. Just four sad dudes and Juan Williams trying to keep it together.

9:17: Has anyone seen CNN use the hologram again? I'm disappointed not to have seen it again.

9:16: Green, that's either a poor excuse to leave early or a sign that we political journalists need to buy sunscreen.

9:16: The MSNBC crowd just said that Charlie Crist is ducking out of Mr McCain's rally because of urgent business in Tallahassee.

9:14: Just took a brief break from MSNBC's coverage to check out PBS. I'm glad at least one network is brave enough to provide utterly soporific recitations of conventional wisdom with as little actual data as possible. If you have fond memories of your grandpa and great-uncles settin' round the fire in ought-four, Shields and Brooks are there for you.

9:12: I'm going to be sad if this all comes down to Florida again.

9:09: If you like to look at neat graphs and you are wondering when they might finally call some of these states like North Carolina and Virginia, check out Daily Kos's post from Monday.

9:06: No one has been brave enough yet to call either Virginia or North Carolina. They are still close. The small county of Caswell in North Carolina seems to be tilting towards Mr Obama in the northern part of the state--another small county going for Obama and went for bush in 2004.

9:06:La chevre, there was exultation among my Democratic friends here in Austin during that brief second when CNN flashed to a 50-49 race in Texas (with 1% of precincts reporting).

9:05: Mr Castellanos's and Mr Axelrod's moustaches are so similar that there was an argument in my house about who was who.

9:00: The upper-Midwest smacks Mr McCain. So far, Mr Obama is winning all the states he needs to.

8:59: Alabama goes for Mr McCain. Roll tide.

8:57: NBC/MSNBC is projecting the states on the ice rink at Rock Center. That's a class act.

8:57: Spoilt Victorian Child, that's a good point but I think Mr Biden can resign his senate seat after the term-limited Ruth Ann Minner leaves the governor's mansion. And Delaware just got another Democratic governor, so I think she's still in the mix. But I'm not entirely sure about that.

8:56: I can't wait until Ted Stevens gets a CNN contract, Purple.

8:56: Chris Matthews tells Tom DeLay, who for some unknown reason was invited onto MSNBC, "I like the way you hate, sir."

8:54: I really don't like David Axelrod's moustache. And I really don't like Alex Castellanos's moustache.

8:53: Those of you watching on PBS are missing deep questions, like when Chris Matthews just asked David Axelrod how they unified college-educated voters and African Americans, "not that they're mutually exclusive".

8:50: James Carville will only get more skeletal as the years pass.

8:47: Chuck Todd points out there have been no flips yet: everything has gone the way it did in 2004, including Virginia, county-by-county. Grant Park revellers should cease the revels for a few minutes.

8:46: Chuck Todd says that until we see Mr Obama flip a state that went for Bush then we don't have the kind of landslide Obama supporters were hoping for.

8:45: Good work, everyone. I like the idea of Democracy in America mischiefing the Times. And really, who among us doesn't feel sassy? It sure seems that Mr Axelrod does.

8:40: Clearly my job is to watch all the small counties in North Carolina and Virginia tonight. Mecklenberg county, in southside Virginia, is showing a slight Obama lead at nearly 70% reporting. Another Bush county falling towards Obama?

8:37: Mr McCain wins Georgia, which is probably the best news for him of the night thus far: it suggests that he has avoided an Obama rout, as Georgia is one state that could have been tipped by massive turnout.

8:34: Early results have the Democrats close to avenging Tom Daschle's loss in 2004 by poaching Mitch McConnell's seat. Mr Sununu's seat was one small step to 60. Nabbing Mr McConnell's would be a giant leap.

8:30: Virginia's King and Queen County, a Bush county in 2004, went for Mr Obama with 100%.

8:30: David Axelrod's mustache is too awesome. Not only does he look like a drowned rat, he looks like a drowned rat with a drowned rat above his lip.

8:26: So Pennsylvania is called for Mr Obama at the top of the hour, and Alabama and Mississippi are still too close to call. Not a good sign for Camp McCain. It could also be that in vote counting, as in so much else, Alabama and Mississippi just lag behind the other 48.

8:25: Mr Axelrod: "I don't have heartburn. I don't even know what should be giving me heartburn." Ha!

8:25: David Axelrod has the same moustache as my eighth-grade civics teacher. But fewer chins.

8:23: Virginia's Caroline County, which also went for Mr Bush in 2004, narrowly, is currently trending towards Mr Obama with 64% reporting.

8:23: David Axelrod's moustache: Too bad? Or too awesome?

8.21: Here's the question to keep the DC results interesting: Does Obama top 90% in DC? It's entirely possible. Mrs Purple waited an hour mid-day today (in DC!!); I waited an hour and a quarter for in-person absentee voting last Friday.

8:21: Ol' McCreedy, that's a good question. Beau Biden might be a bit too much nepotism, though he seems to be a perfectly reasonable AG. Maybe Ruth Ann Minner?

8:18: Swain County in western North Carolina, which went for Mr Bush in 2004, is trending towards Obama. No counties in that part of the state voted Democratic in the 2004 election.

8:17: Elizabeth Dole will not return to the Senate. Back to Kansas, Bob and his Viagra drawer.

8:17: John Kerry's re-election spurs a wave of chuckles: Can you imagine if he was standing for re-election to the presidency right now?

8:16: MSNBC called the New Hampshire senate for Jeanne Shaheen, the Maine senate for Susan Collins and the Delaware senate, believe it or not, for Joe Biden.

8:15: Jeanne Shaheen beats John Sununu in New Hampshire. Not a huge surprise, but it's the first step toward 60.

8:12: Howard Dean says that Mr Obama wants to be the president of all Americas. Including South America, Mr Dean?

8:12: MSNBC says Clinton voters in Pennsylvania broke for Mr Obama 81-19. That's an impressive margin, especially in light of Clinton's primary arguments, and the eagerness with which the pundits lapped them up.

8:05: "Show me quickly why we haven't called Pennsylvania yet." John King, with his magic map, "Because we don't have any votes." A second later: "We're going to be conservative and we're going to count the votes." Thanks, CNN!

8:03: Chris Matthews says that, with the PA results in, "The second battle of Gettysburg" has been won. What? That's even less impressive than your usual, Napoleon-at-Austerlitz analogies, Mr Matthews.

8:03: I remember, in the month of November 2000, watching the number of American flags behind each candidate multiply with every televised appearance.

8:02: Demosthenes/Locke, that's an interesting point about homeless voters. I've seen the occasional post on the Corner harrumphing that homeless people can vote, because what's to stop Barack Obama's massive organisation of sharp-elbowed Chicago pols from bundling their supporters on a bus and sending them to pose as homeless people in Indiana?

8:01: Remember that moment when Mr McCain thought New Jersey was a swing state?

8.01: And PA goes Mr Obama. That doesn't nail the coffin shut on Mr McCain yet, but he's going to need a crowbar.

8:00: What was that the McCain campaign said about Northern Virginia? Alexandria currently stands at 75%/25% for Obama according to nytimes.com.

8.00: Mr McCain leads Mr Obama 56-43 in Virginia, in defiance of the polls. Important to remember that the sparsely populated and hence early-reporting parts of the state lean conservative. We won't have results from the DC suburbs for a while.

7:57: I'm listening to C-SPAN radio as I prepare buckeye balls for a swing-state themed election party. C-SPAN is guaranteed to be the only network tonight on which you can hear the words "Cynthia McKinney".

7:55: Fivethirtyeight.com and CNN reporting that Barack Obama is running ahead in Indiana compared to Kerry results in 2004.

7.54: Ms Green, I saw the Kerry-Bush results filtering in in the wee small hours of the morning in London. Without wishing to tip my political hand, it was shattering.

7:51: Brilliant, Green. I can still remember that falling sound when the Clinton camp realised on Super Tuesday that it shouldn't have ignored the small caucus states.

7:49: This is a kind of quiet moment, so in the comments, let's share the election-watching moments that shook us to our cores. I'll never forget in 2000, when the networks un-called Florida for Al Gore.

7:47: Lindsay Graham can finally breathe easy.

7:44: South Carolina for Mr Obama Mr McCain. The fact that it was too close to call for a bit is not a good sign for Mr McCain.

7:37: Joe Scarborough makes the fair point that Mr Obama, if elected, will be "a free agent"--"he doesn't owe Wall Street, he doesn't owe K Street." He also doesn't have a notable debt to the Clinton wing, or the netroots...that may be a sign of Democratic disorganisation more than anything else.

7:38: Virginia is beginning to report. No surprises yet--few results from the potentially blue counties in northern and eastern Virginia. The city of Danville, where I am from, is blue, with 50% reporting. Danville also voted for Kerry in 2004.

7:34: David Gergen: "It's way too early to say President McCain, looking at these numbers."

7:30: Well, it doesn't seem to be the called-by-8:00 race some thought it might be. Every state but Kentucky and Vermont are too close to call, according to CNN.

7:22: Mr Obama is beating Mr McCain in NH 32-16. Not percent: that's votes, and that's 1% of the electorate. Three cheers for Dixville Notch.

7:21: Ahh, Wolf Blitzer and those oh-so-familiar graphics with useless 1%-of-precincts-reporting-in vote tallies. I haven't seen you together since May.

7:19: The atmosphere in Chicago is electric, hometown colors as clearly worn by the thousands thronging around Grant Park as before a huge hometown sporting championship. The sun set gently on a beautiful, unseasonably warm night. Journalists are on edge, joking nervously, waiting for something meaningful to happen. Journo-secret: we're all getting our numbers not from secret sources, but from CNN just like you.

7:10: Pat Buchanan isn't even pretending that John McCain might win tonight, talking about how the Great Depression obliterated the Republican party once, and that the economy is working against the GOP again today. David Gregory does his best to recover, assuring us that Mr Obama will have to win a state or two before he takes the White House.

7:09: Barack Obama takes Vermont. Call the race.

7:03: Mark Warner takes John Warner's Senate seat in Virginia. It probably feels better than when he was elected governor. Not only will the margin no doubt be huge--but Senators from Virginia aren't limited to one term.

And for you Economist bloggers telling us that early results in states don't mean anything... we know that, we are just having fun pretending one candidate or another is pulling ahead here and there. Keeps it interesting and all.

"Ol' McCreedy, that's a good question. Beau Biden might be a bit too much nepotism, though he seems to be a perfectly reasonable AG. Maybe Ruth Ann Minner?"Considering Minner will likely be the one making the appointment, I'm not sure that would look much better.

What does it mean that Warner cleaned Gilmore's clock in VA? Do you think many people really voted for divided government? I suspect most people did not split their ticket. So Warner's win probably portends disaster for McCain.