000
FXUS64 KMAF 152019
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures today will give way to much cooler
temperatures Friday behind a cold front. We will also see the best
chance of rain we`ve seen in awhile, especially north of Interstate
20 Friday and Friday night. Southwest flow aloft will persist over
the region for most of the next 7 days as an upper trough over the
intermountain west ejects eastward in the next couple of days, but
becomes reinforced as another upper trough deepens over the west
again by early next week. Mid level winds will be strong enough
over the Guadalupe Mountains through early this evening to warrant
the continuation of the High WindWarning there until this evening.
Although wind speeds are expected to be in the low end of the
criteria, westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph sustained, and gusts around
60 mph will be possible.
Subtropical mid and upper levelmoisture will be prevalent over the
area as the southwest flow aloft provides a steady feed off the
Pacific Ocean. A series of shortwave troughs will eject
northeastward over northern reaches of the forecast area through
Saturday, with the RRQ of a 160+kt h25 jet providing additional lift
for precipitation development. A cold front will move south into
the area Friday morning with light rain possibly breaking out over
Southeast New Mexico ahead of the boundary, and rain chances
continuing during the day Friday mainly in and near the Guadalupe
Mountains, and adjacent portions of Southeast New Mexico, in a low
level upslope regime. The best chance of rain will be Friday night
as a shortwavetrough combines with the above mentioned RRQ of the
strong h25 jet, but still mainly north of Interstate 20. A few
locations could see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall over Southeast
New Mexico Friday night. The amount of precipitation will likely
aid surface temperatures staying above freezing, and since the
atmospheric column does not appear overly cold, will keep
precipitation all rain. Rain chances will decrease Saturday as the
first ua jet heads east, as does the mid level shortwavetrough.
Another, weaker h25 jet, and attendant mid level shortwavetrough,
will translate northeastward over the region late Saturday
night/Sunday. Will keep a slight chance of rain going Saturday
night, and a low end chance Sunday, for these features. Overall,
amounts/coverage will be less than Friday. The airmass over the
region will modify Saturday, with temperatures warming well above
normal Sunday and Monday. As the next ua trough approaches, a
dryline will sharpen up over the eastern Permian Basin, if not a
little further eastward, Sunday through Tuesday. Unless something
changes with the upper trough in the next few days, particularly it
becoming deeper, any rain chances will likely be relegated to
locations east of our forecast area. A strong cold front will drop
south into the area Tuesday night in the wake of the passing ua
trough, but chilly temperatures may only last through Thursday
morning as west to southwest flow aloft persists.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 51 55 41 68 / 10 10 60 20
Carlsbad 54 55 37 67 / 20 40 70 10
Dryden 58 69 50 72 / 0 10 20 20
Fort Stockton 50 58 45 69 / 10 10 20 10
Guadalupe Pass 44 50 41 60 / 10 70 70 10
Hobbs 42 46 37 66 / 20 20 70 10
Marfa 45 63 37 69 / 10 10 30 10
Midland Intl Airport 49 55 41 69 / 10 10 50 20
Odessa 47 53 41 69 / 10 10 50 20
Wink 50 56 39 70 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High WindWarning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...High WindWarning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
$$
80/67