http://www.jewishworldreview.com --
SINCE PAT BUCHANAN is said to be seriously considering
bolting the Republican Party for the Reform Party, it is
important to contemplate the potential ramifications of
such a decision.

His chief advisor, sister Bay Buchanan said, "I think it is
an incredible opportunity, and there is a big cry across the
country for a third party candidate."

Adding further fuel to speculation about Pat's defection is
an e-mail letter a friend forwarded to me from Pat to his
followers. In the letter he charges that "the Republican
Party Establishment is attempting to put the fix in and rig
the 2000 nomination in favor of its anointed candidate,
Governor George W. Bush. And we need to protest this
outrage, right now!"

Buchanan argues that such a closed nominating process
will be disastrous for Republicans, "Well, my friend, that
is the formula for yet another conservative-Republican
defeat in 2000."

Unfortunately, some establishment Republicans are not
taking Pat's threats seriously. They are privately
questioning whether Buchanan's departure would have a
major impact. These officials contend that his trade views
would attract a fair share of hard-hat Democrats hurt by
the Clinton administration's free-trade policies. They
better think again.

It's one thing for Pat to consider leaving the GOP. It's
quite another for him to choose the Reform Party as his
next home. Patrick Choate, Perot's running mate in 1996,
says that Pat would be a perfect fit because he is in tune
with Reformers on its major issues: a balanced budget,
term limits and trade.

Well, is Choate correct? Everyone claims to support a
balanced budget these days, but what about the Reform
Party's position on taxes and spending to achieve that
balance? The truth is that Ross Perot's fiscal policies
more closely resemble that of the Democrats than the
Republicans.

But worse, for Pat, is their stand on social issues. They
are as recalcitrant as Libertarians about social issues
being a part of the policy mix. But Pat has been a leading
proponent of social conservatism, including the right to
life.

And does anybody even know where the Reform Party
stands on other major issues, such as foreign policy or
what types of judges they would appoint?

The Reform Party is held together not by any cohesive
ideology, but by a common thread of frustration with the
two major parties.

In addition, it is not clear that Pat would be unanimously
welcomed by all Reform leaders. Minnesota Governor
Jesse Ventura is said to be cool to the prospect of
Buchanan's Reform candidacy. He has said that
Buchanan's social agenda does not fit with the Reform
Party's agenda, which is mostly fiscal.

Pat's decision to run on the Reform ticket wouldn't be
merely quixotic as was Bob Smith's threat to run on a
third party ticket. His candidacy could be as disruptive as
Ross Perot's was in 1992 and maybe more so.

Ross Perot received 19 percent of the vote in 1992 and
would have received significantly more had he not
demonstrated his singular flakiness and temporarily bailed
out of the race. In 1996, he still got 8 percent even though
his quirkiness was by then well known.

The level of voter discontent is every bit as pronounced
today as it was in 1992. And the disillusionment and angst
among the conservative wing of the party may be at an
all time high. Many of these voters are very serious about
either sitting out the election or throwing their support to a
viable third party candidate.

Though not all of these potential GOP defectors are
necessarily in Buchanan's camp on every issue,
especially his economic populism, they share with him an
abiding resentment and distrust for establishment
Republicans and their perceived cinch lock on the party
nominating apparatus.

If the eccentric and largely agendaless Ross Perot could
garner 19 percent of the vote in 1992 and arguably
sabotage George Bush Sr.'s presidential election, how
much more could a highly focused Pat Buchanan do the
same to a George W. Candidacy in 2000, especially with
$12.5 million of federal matching funds in his arsenal?

It is very possible that a Reform Party Buchanan could
tilt the election to Al Gore.

Regardless of the magnitude of Pat's frustration, I still
can't bring myself to believe that this GOP stalwart would
so willingly become Al Gore's greatest benefactor.

As he considers whether to run, Pat would be do well to
heed his own admonition in his letter to his followers:
"Well, my friend, that is the formula for yet another
conservative-Republican defeat in
2000."

JWR contributor
David Limbaugh
is an
attorney
practicing in
Cape Girardeau,
Missouri,
and a
political
analyst
and
commentator. Send your comments to him by clicking here.