05/20/04: Little Movement in Bush-Kerry Matchup

The latest Fox News poll finds that while President Bush's job rating remains below 50 percent and pessimism about the nation's economy grows, the election matchup shows little movement. In addition, on the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, the poll finds a majority believes the abuse was limited to a few soldiers and most are confident those responsible will be brought to justice, but few support financially compensating the abused prisoners.

Currently, 48 percent of Americans approve and 43 percent disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president, according to this week's Fox News poll. While these ratings are virtually unchanged from earlier in the month, it is a 10-percentage point drop in approval and 12-point increase in disapproval since early January.

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national poll of 900 registered voters for Fox News on May 18-19.

The sharp national divide continues on many topics, but may best be illustrated with the current presidential horse race numbers. If the election were held today, the head-to-head matchup between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry (search) shows the candidates would be tied at 42 percent each. Earlier this month Bush was at 44 percent and Kerry 41 percent.

When independent candidate Ralph Nader (search) is included he receives three percent, 40 percent Kerry and 40 percent Bush.

The intensity of President Bush's vote remains strong and is significantly above his (still somewhat unknown) Democratic opponent's. Fully 78 percent of Bush voters say they "strongly" support him, up five percentage points since early April, and 21 percent say they "somewhat" support him. Among those backing Kerry, 59 percent say they "strongly" support him, up seven points in the last six weeks, and 40 percent "somewhat" support him.

Two potential running mates — North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (search) and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt (search) — were tested in the Democratic vice presidential slot, but neither stands out as giving a lift to the ticket. The Bush-Cheney ticket ties both the hypothetical Kerry-Edwards and Kerry-Gephardt tickets.

The public is split on whether Sen. Kerry would be doing a better job than the incumbent handling today's hot issues if he were president today. On the situation in Iraq, 39 percent think Kerry would be doing a better job than Bush is doing, 34 percent think worse, and 13 percent think there would be no difference.

On the nation's economy, which about half of Americans think is worsening, more than four in 10 think the Democratic contender would be doing a better job than Bush is doing, 30 percent say worse, and 16 percent say Kerry would be doing the "same" job as Bush. A third think the economy would recover faster if Kerry were elected, 21 percent think it would recover slower, but a plurality (35 percent) thinks it would make "no difference."

Would Kerry be Doing a Better Job Than Bush?

Handling of

Iraq

Economy

If Kerry Were President:

Better than Bush

39%

42%

Worse than Bush

34

30

Same as

13

16

Overall, the public is evenly divided on which candidate would make America a "more successful country." While 39 percent say the country will be more successful if Kerry is elected, 38 percent say Bush, and nine percent say there would be no difference.

Half of the public says it seems the economy is getting worse, and the most frequently mentioned reasons for that pessimism include unemployment (37 percent) and gas prices (31 percent). About a third say it feels like the economy is getting better, and an increase in job availability is the top reason cited for this feeling (40 percent), followed by "a general sense" (16 percent), pay increases (12 percent) and the stock market (11 percent).

"The presidential race has been essentially deadlocked for months," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "It seems anything that is likely to move the numbers is almost instantly checkmated by something on the other side. If Iraq gets bad, some good economic news appears. If either candidate seems to be getting a bounce, the other one's advertising ratchets up. In the long run, though, developments in Iraq and the economy will almost certainly determine the outcome of the race."

Overall, two-thirds of Americans say this year's election is more important than most other presidential elections, including 72 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of independents.

The public sees some differences in recent media coverage of the two major candidates, with almost twice as many thinking coverage of Bush has been "too tough" as think so about the coverage of Kerry. Nearly half of Americans (46 percent) think recent news reports have been "too tough" on the president, while 32 percent say "too easy," and 14 percent say coverage has been even-handed.

A 33 percent plurality sees the media coverage of Kerry over the last few months as too easy, while 24 percent say too tough, and 24 percent say news about the Democratic candidate has been balanced. As on other measures, it is important to note that many Americans are still somewhat unfamiliar with Kerry and that can be seen in these results as well, as one in five are unable to form an opinion.

Iraq and the Prisoner Abuse Scandal

Americans are divided on whether President Bush has done a good job explaining his positions on Iraq. A slim 51 percent majority is satisfied with the job Bush has done explaining his policies, but 45 percent are dissatisfied.

Even so, twice as many say Bush has done a better job explaining how the U.S. will win in Iraq than Kerry has (40 percent Bush, 20 percent Kerry), while many Americans (20 percent) say "neither" candidate has explained how to win in Iraq and another 18 percent is unsure.

As for next steps in Iraq, a minority thinks the U.S. will never be able to stabilize Iraq and should "get out now," while almost half support either staying on the current course or becoming more aggressive and 21 percent think it would be best to start from scratch with a "whole new plan."

A majority believes the abuse of Iraqi prisoners was limited to a few soldiers (58 percent), with a quarter believing it is a widespread problem. Most Americans (71 percent) believe the soldiers' supervisors knew what was going on, and a strong majority (63 percent) is confident the responsible parties will be brought to justice. By almost five-to-one, Americans say the abused prisoners should not be financially compensated by the U.S..

"These numbers suggest Americans are sorting out the prisoner abuse scandal just as the Congress and the courts are," comments Gorman. "On the one hand, most believe only a few were responsible, but a large majority also believes that many knew, which means they should have done something."

Nearly half of the public is satisfied with the Bush administration's response to the abuse scandal (22 percent "very" and 27 percent "somewhat"), while a strong 42 percent minority are dissatisfied (29 percent "very" and 13 percent "somewhat").

The beheading of American civilian Nick Berg (search) by Muslim terrorists was a much more upsetting news story to Americans than the prisoner abuse scandal (60 percent and eight percent respectively), with 29 percent saying both news reports were equally upsetting.

Some Americans (34 percent) believe the prisoner abuse scandal was covered "excessively" by the news media compared to only nine percent saying the beheading received too much coverage. Over a third (35 percent) think both stories received excessive media coverage and 15 percent say neither.

Polling was conducted by telephone May 18-19, 2004 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

The remaining non-battleground states are divided into "Red States" (voted for Bush in the 2000 election) and "Blue States" (gave their electoral votes to Gore).

1. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE) SCALE: 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. Independent candidate Ralph Nader 4. (Not sure/Other) 5. (Would not vote)

Bush

Kerry

Nader

(NS/Other)

(Would not vote)

All

40%

40

3

15

2

Battlegrounds

43%

37

2

16

2

Red States

44%

36

6

12

2

Blue States

35%

46

1

17

1

TREND:

18-19 May 04

40%

40

3

15

2

21-22 Apr 04

42%

40

2

14

2

23-24 Mar 04

43%

42

3

10

2

18-19 Feb 04*

43%

42

4

9

2

*Wording: "Green Party candidate Ralph Nader"

2. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. (Not sure/Other) 4. (Would not vote)

Bush

Kerry

(NS/Other)

(Would not vote)

All

42%

42

13

3

Battlegrounds

43%

39

15

3

Red States

46%

41

9

4

Blue States

37%

47

14

2

TREND:

18-19 May 04

42%

42

13

3

4-5 May 04

44%

41

13

2

21-22 Apr 04

43%

42

12

3

6-7 Apr 04

43%

44

12

1

23-24 Mar 04

44%

44

10

2

3. Do you support (insert candidate choice) strongly or only somewhat? SCALE: 1. Strongly support 2. Only somewhat support 3. (Not sure)

—

Bush Voters

—

—

Kerry Voters

—

Strngly

Smwht

(NS)

Strngly

Smwht

(NS)

18-19 May 04

78%

21

1

59

40

1

6-7 Apr 04

73%

26

1

52

46

2

3-4 Mar 04

75%

23

2

55

42

3

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

Approve

Disapprove

(DK)

18-19 May 04

48%

43

9

4-5 May 04

49%

43

8

21-22 Apr 04

50%

44

6

6-7 Apr 04

49%

44

7

23-24 Mar 04

47%

44

9

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Rumsfeld is doing as secretary of defense?

Approve

Disapprove

(DK)

18-19 May 04

48%

36

16

21-22 Apr 04

49%

39

12

14-15 Oct 03

54%

29

17

22-23 Apr 03

67%

19

14

25-26 Mar 03

71%

16

13

6. In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and North Carolina Senator John Edwards for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support? SCALE: 1. Republican ticket, Bush-Cheney 2. Democratic ticket, Kerry-Edwards 3. (Neither) 4. (Not sure)

Bush-Cheney

Kerry-Edwards

(Neither)

(NS)

18-19 May 04

43%

43

3

11

23-24 Mar 04

43%

48

2

7

3-4 Mar 04

45%

45

2

8

7. In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Senator John Kerry for president and Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support? SCALE: 1. Republican ticket, Bush-Cheney 2. Democratic ticket, Kerry-Gephardt 3. (Neither) 4. (Not sure)

Bush-Cheney

Kerry-Gephardt

(Neither)

(NS)

18-19 May 04

43%

42

3

12

8. Do you think this year’s presidential election will make more of a difference or less of a difference to the future of the country than most other presidential elections? SCALE: 1. More of a difference than most 2. Less of a difference than most3. (Same as most) 4. (Not sure)

More

Less

(Same)

(NS)

18-19 May 04

65%

7

19

9

Dem

72%

9

12

7

Rep

63%

5

23

9

Ind

54%

5

27

14

18-19 Feb 04

63%

8

22

7

9. Overall, do you think America will be a more successful country if (Bush) gets elected or if (Kerry) gets elected?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Bush

38%

9%

79%

33%

2. Kerry

39

74

7

28

3. (Same)

9

5

7

18

4. (Not sure)

14

12

7

21

10. If John Kerry were president right now, do you think he would be doing a better job handling the situation in Iraq than George Bush is doing, a worse job than Bush or about the same job as Bush is doing right now handling the situation in Iraq? (Is that a lot better/worse or only a little better/worse?) SCALE: 1. A lot better 2. A little better 3. A little worse 4. A lot worse 5. Same 6. (Not sure)

—

Better

—

—

Worse

—

TOT

Lot

Little

TOT

Little

Lot

(Same)

(Not sure)

18-19 May 04

39%

30

9

34

11

23

13

14

11. If John Kerry were president right now, do you think he would be doing a better job handling the nation’s economy than George Bush is, a worse job than Bush or about the same job as Bush is doing right now handling the nation’s economy? (Is that a lot better/worse or only a little better/worse?) SCALE: 1. A lot better 2. A little better 3. A little worse 4. A lot worse 5. Same 6. (Not sure)

—

Better

—

—

Worse

—

TOT

Lot

Little

TOT

Little

Lot

(Same)

(Not sure)

18-19 May 04

42%

30

12

30

8

22

16

12

12. Which presidential candidate — (Bush) or (Kerry) — have you heard best explain how the U.S.-led coalition is going to win in Iraq?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Bush

40%

17%

74%

37%

2. Kerry

20

38

2

13

3. (Both)

2

3

1

3

4. (Neither)

20

20

13

30

5. (Not sure)

18

22

10

17

13. Overall, how satisfied are you with the job President Bush has done explaining his policies on Iraq?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Very satisfied

25%

6%

52%

20%

2. Somewhat satisfied

26

16

33

36

3. Somewhat dissatisfied

11

15

6

15

4. Very dissatisfied

34

59

7

25

5. (Not sure)

4

4

2

4

14. Over the last few months, would you say reports in the news media have been too easy or too tough on President George Bush?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Too easy

32%

56%

8%

25%

2. Too tough

46

24

77

40

3. (Neither/Even handed)

14

14

10

21

4. (Not sure)

8

6

5

14

15. Over the last few months, would you say reports in the news media have been too easy or too tough on Senator John Kerry?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Too easy

33%

22%

51%

28%

2. Too tough

24

36

15

15

3. (Neither/Even handed)

24

28

17

28

4. (Not sure)

19

14

17

29

16. For you and your family, does it feel like the economy is getting better or worse?

Better

Worse

(Same)

(Not sure)

18-19 May 04

31%

49

17

3

Dem

11%

72

14

3

Rep

59%

20

18

3

Ind

27%

47

23

3

18-19 Feb 04

36%

41

21

2

21-22 Jan 04

44%

34

19

3

14-15 Oct 03

35%

45

18

2

17. (If better/worse) Why do you say it feels like the economy is getting (better/worse)?

Better

Worse

(No jobs)

-%

37%

(Gas prices increasing)

-

31

(General sense)

16

10

(More jobs)

40

-

(Pay increase)

12

-

(Stock market)

11

1

(Grocery prices)

-

6

(Stores busier/business improving)

8

-

(Iraq/War)

-

4

(Prescription costs)

-

2

(Other)

4

4

(Don’t know/Refused)

9

5

18. If Democrat John Kerry were elected president, do you think it would make the nation’s economy recover faster than it currently is, slower than it is, or would it make no difference to the economic recovery if Kerry were elected president?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Faster economic recovery

33%

61%

8%

22%

2. Slower economic recovery

21

6

44

14

3. No difference

35

23

41

46

4. (Not sure)

11

10

7

18

19. Generally speaking, do you think news reports about U.S. military operations in Iraq have been: SCALE: 1. More likely to focus on the negative things happening in Iraq and leave out the positive things, or 2. More likely to focus on the positive things happening in Iraq and leave out the negative things? 3. (Neither) 4. (Depends) 5. (Not sure)

Focus on Negative

Focus on Positive

(Neither)

(Depends)

(NS)

18-19 May 04

70%

11

7

8

4

14-15 Oct 03

60%

19

8

9

4

20. On the situation in Iraq today, where do you think most of the problems are being created?

1. In Iraq

23%

2. In Washington, DC, or

18

3. In the news media

27

4. (Combination)

21

5. (All)

8

6. (None)

-

7. (Not sure)

3

21. Which one of the following best describes what you think the United States should do to stabilize Iraq? Do you think the United States should:

1. Stay on the current course

15%

2. Stay on the same general course, but become more aggressive with military tactics

28

3. Develop a whole new plan

21

4. Get out now - U.S. will never be able to stabilize Iraq

28

5. (Other)

1

6. (Not sure)

7

22. How satisfied are you with the Bush administration’s response to reports of U.S. troops abusing Iraqi prisoners?

1. Very satisfied

22%

2. Somewhat satisfied

27

3. Somewhat dissatisfied

13

4. Very dissatisfied

29

5. (Not sure)

9

23. Do you believe the abuse of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. soldiers was widespread or was it limited to a few soldiers?

1. Widespread

25%

2. Limited

58

3. (Not sure)

17

24. Do you believe that the supervisors of the soldiers who abused Iraqi prisoners were aware of the abuse?

1. Yes, supervisors were aware

71%

2. No, supervisors were not aware

12

3. (Not sure)

17

25. How confident are you that those responsible for the Iraqi prisoner abuse will be brought to justice?

1. Very confident

37%

2. Somewhat confident

26

3. Not very confident

17

4. Not at all confident

13

5. (Not sure)

7

26. Do you think the United States should financially compensate the abused Iraqi prisoners?

1. Yes

15%

2. No

73

3. (Not sure)

12

27. Which of the following news stories upset you more?

1. The abuse of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. soldiers

8%

2. The beheading of an American civilian by Muslim terrorists

60

3. (Both equal)

29

4. (Not sure)

3

28. Do you think the media spent an excessive amount of time covering either of the following news stories?

1. The Iraqi prisoner abuse story

34%

2. The beheading of American Nick Berg

9

3. (Both were covered excessively)

35

4. (Neither was covered excessively)

15

5. (Not sure)

7

29. Is the beheading of American civilian Nick Berg more likely to make you feel that U.S. troops need to fight more aggressively in Iraq than they have been or that troops should pull out of Iraq?

1. Need to be tougher

48%

2. Should pull out

31

3. (Neither)

13

4. (Not sure)

8

30. When you hear about the continuing violent attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq, are you more likely to think the United States should be pulling troops our of Iraq or that the United States should be using more force to help stop the attacks by Iraqi insurgents?

1. Pull troops out

32%

2. Use more force

52

3. (Neither)

9

4. (Not sure)

7

31. Do you think it would be good for the United States or bad for the United States to change presidents during a war?

All

Dem

Rep

Ind

1. Good

28%

51%

6%

21%

2. Bad

49

25

80

44

3. (No difference)

14

14

11

22

4. (Not sure)

9

10

3

13

32. Do you believe gays and lesbians should be: SCALE: 1. Allowed to get legally married, 2. Allowed a legal partnership similar to but not called marriage, or 3. Should there be no legal recognition given to gay and lesbian relationships? 4. (Not sure)