Après Vote….

Well, the first poll post-Fiscal Compact has come out, and it shows some interesting movement.

Figures, and IPR projections, are as follows;

Projected result

%

seats

FG

32.00%

60

LP

15.00%

30

FF

18.00%

24

SF

16.00%

25

ULA*

2.90%

5

GP**

1.85%

0

OTH*

14.25%

22

** GP assumed to be at GE11 levels

* ULA and OTH assumed to be at the same proportion as in GE11

It’s late and I’ve already had a long weekend, so I’ll not be saying much. But the only movement matching the margin of error is the 3% drop in SF voters. This could be due to a number of factors, but it does suggest the possibility that their increased coverage during the referendum – in order to ensure 50/50 coverage for both sides of the campaign – artificially boosted their rating, and having reverted to the level of coverage of, say, the Labour Party, that boost is starting to fade (and relatively quickly). Time will of course tell, and there is a long time to go to the next GE, and much will happen between now and then.

FG will be pleased to be marginally up (+2%) on the previous poll. Similarly Labour, who on these figures would come second on seats, by a reasonably comfortable margin. They had been behind SF (and in some instances FF) in seats in previous polls, and so they will be pleased with this.

FF will be happy enough I suspect. Martin did well in the recent referendum, and it appears that their bump from that campaign has shown greater resilience than that of SF.

Finally….OTH 1% up…..which suggests that the Mick #Wallets fiasco has not deterred people from voting for “like-minded” independents.

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2 Responses

I think there’s more to it… I agree on the visibility thing, but if you look at it in the context of the poll before (5 weeks ago) it is a 5% drop… I’d say two things: one, people were not registering SF as such, but more anti EU; and two, the campaign finished pretty badly for them…

thanks for your contniuing hard work dotski. i note that there will be only 158 seats at the next election. could you possibly adjust your predictions to take into account the new seat configuration, as a 166 seat prediction is now redundant and meaningless? in similarly changed seat configurations in the uk, seat prediction websites have based their predictions on ward-level data for the new seats. they have also used local election results and extrapolated those onto the new boundaries.