Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’

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1 Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Consistent context scenarios:a new approach to ‘story and simulation’Hannah KosowUniversity of StuttgartZIRN - Interdisciplinary Research Unit onRisk Governance and Sustainable Technology Development

2 Content I. Introduction II. SAS: story and simulationConsistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’ContentI. IntroductionII. SAS: story and simulationideal type and practicestrengths and weaknessesIII.‘CIBAS‘: cross-impact balance analysis and simulationcross-impact balance analysis (CIB)conceptual ideas on CIBASexpected potential and limitsIV. Conclusion2

3 Approaching futures of coupled human-environmental systemsConsistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’Approaching futures of coupled human-environmental systemsmodeling and simulationsystems analysisintegrated modelingcombining numerical modeling with qualitative scenario techniques (SAS) used for scientific exploration and to inform public and political debates but: usefulness and credibility of SAS scenarios for „producer-users“ and „recipient-users“ (e.g. Parson 2008, Pulver/ VanDeveer 2009) ?3

4 Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’FocusAims: to reflect current approaches and to discuss a new approachQuestion: (If and) how could CIB be used within a new approach to SAS and what potential benefits and limits can we expect from ‘CIBAS’ (i.e. CIB And Simulation)?Methods:literature reviewexpert interviewsconceptual ideas and expectations on potential and limits of ‘CIBAS‘(empirical exploration and evaluation of CIBAS via case studies).4

8 SAS: strenghts use of scenario concept in its primary senseConsistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’SAS: strenghtsuse of scenario concept in its primary senserepresentation of uncertainty of social contextsintegration of qualitative informationinclusion of variety (of knowledge and of participants) possible8

10 Cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle 2006)Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’Cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle 2006)Example of a CIB matrixqualitative but systematic form of systems analysisbased on expert judgments of interactions of system elementsbalance algorithm to determine consistent network configurationsapplied as qualitative scenario technique in various fieldsanalysis via SzenarioWizard or with pen and paper10

12 CIBAS: expected potentialConsistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘‘story and simulation’CIBAS: expected potentialmoderates the methodological imbalance of SAS by its systematic and semi-formalized approachassures the internal consistency of the qualitative scenarios via CIBsupports the reproducibility of the scenario process (not of the result) by explicitly documenting underlying mental models including assumptions on interrelations12

13 CIBAS: expected limitsConsistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’CIBAS: expected limitsis ridden with many of the same prerequisites as SAS, the translation of verbal into numerical statements remains a challenge, e.g.possibly tends to overemphasize causal relationships13

14 Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’ConclusionCIBAS…could build on the strengths of SAS and balance some of its weaknessesmight enhance the usefulness and the credibility of SAS processesFuture workdevelop a conceptual framework on SAS processes and variantsexplore CIBAS empirically: two case studies have already started14

15 Ideas for further case studies are very welcome!Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’Ideas for further case studies are very welcome!Thank you15