Pro Farmer Tech Talk

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 12

Nov 12, 2012

Monday, November 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there is a Euro-zone finance minister
meeting in Brussels Monday, at which Greece’s financial
bailout will be discussed. Despite the Greek parliament’s
passage of a new austerity plan last week, there are still
hurdles to clear before any disbursement of bailout finds by
the European Union. Greece is on the verge of running out of
cash. There is key economic data coming out of the EU later
this week, as gross domestic product data is released by the
major EU countries. Meantime, in China there was some
better-than-expected trade figures released over the
weekend. However, economic data in Japan was very weak as
Japan’s third-quarter GDP contracted by 3.5% at an
annualized rate, suggesting that country is headed for
recession. In the U.S., government offices are closed for
the Veteran’s Day holiday. Focus in the U.S. remains on
resolving the so-called fiscal cliff matter by the end of
the year. Ratings agencies have issued warnings to the U.S.
that U.S. credit will be downgraded if the fiscal cliff
problem is not sufficiently resolved. There is no major U.S.
economic data due for release Monday, due to the holiday.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering after prices Friday and hit a 13-week low. Bears
still have some downside momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,388.00
and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,372.40 and then at
Friday’s low of 1,363.70. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering after hitting a 13-week low on Friday. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Friday’s high of
2,607.25 and then at 2,623.25. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,576.50 and then at Friday’s
low of 2,556.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early on short covering after
prices on Friday hit a 13-week low. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at 12,750 and then at Friday’s
low of 12,705. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Friday’s high of 12,835 and then at 12,900.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking from recent gains. Prices Friday hit a 13-week
high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have upside near-term momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 151 27/32 and then
at 152 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 151 even and
then at 150 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near weaker early today
on profit taking after hitting a 3.5-month high on Friday.
The bulls maintain the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.30.5 and then at Friday’s high of 134.06.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 133.22.0 and then at 133.13.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading today but are hovering near a two-month high.
Bulls still have some upside momentum on their side. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
last week’s high of 81.17 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.98 and then at
80.68. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at Friday’s high of $86.77 and then at
$87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $85.58 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading.
Soybean bulls have faded badly following a bearish USDA
report issued last Friday morning. Fresh near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in soybean futures, but corn and
wheat futures markets are holding their own.