How many Heismans will Manziel win?

It's a fair question considering Johnny Manziel won the award as a redshirt freshman. Only one other person — Archie Griffin — has won the award multiple times and he did that almost four decades ago.

That's why I believe Manziel will be lucky to win one more, if that, and his best shot could be if Outland Trophy winner Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews return to Texas A&M for their senior seasons. They anchor what could be one of the best offensive lines in the country.

If Aggies offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury returns, the offense could be potent again in 2013. SEC defenses will not be caught off guard after seeing Johnny Football for a season, but it will still be tough to stop him.

Johnny Manziel's Heisman total will be O-N-E. We already know Heisman voters don't like giving the award to defensive players, but what they really don't like is giving it to the same guy twice. It has happened only once, with Ohio State's Archie Griffin winning in 1974 and '75.

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow won the Heisman as a sophomore but did not win it as a junior or senior. So much about winning a Heisman, too, is timing, circumstance and a degree of luck.

Manziel has three more years of eligibility. But as a redshirt freshman he will become eligible for the NFL draft after next season. So he might actually only have one Heisman chance left.

I'm going out on a limb here and say none. Everything has to break just right for a player to win even one Heisman. You need to have an All-World season, your team has to be good, your school needs to out-hype all the other schools and their candidates.

Only one player, the great Archie Griffin from Ohio State, has ever won more than one Heisman. And the competition Johnny Manziel faces is far stiffer than what Griffin faced when he won in 1974 and 1975.

No, this is likely to be Manziel's only Heisman, even if he doesn't leave for the NFL at some point. But what a season it was for a skinny kid who wasn't named the starting quarterback until two weeks before the first game.

Johnny Manziel won't need to break SEC records every season to have a shot at Heisman Trophy Nos. 2-4. He will need a preponderance of factors more or less out of his control to align just so, and that's not a great bet.

SEC opponents must not evolve in ability to slow the Aggies' attack. Manziel must have another line featuring multiple top NFL prospects and either Kliff Kingsbury as his coordinator or someone exactly as good.

And Texas A&M probably must win at least 10 games in the nation's most bruising league while upsetting a title favorite along the way. Johnny Football as Johnny Heisman? Once smitten, twice nigh, but only if he's lucky.