Panera Bread Earnings Preview

Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) is scheduled to report its Q2 2012 results on July 25, 2012, before market opens. The street expects EPS and revenue of $1.43 and $518.23M, respectively.

In this article I will recap the historical results of the company, its latest EPS estimates vs. surprises, the latest news from PNRA and the news from its closest competitors.

Recent EPS Actuals vs. Estimates

The company has met or beaten analysts' estimates in the last four quarters. In the last quarter it reported $1.40 EPS, beating analyst estimates of $1.35.

The consensus EPS estimate is $1.43 based on 23 analysts' estimates, up from $1.18 a year ago. Revenue estimates are $518.23M, up from $451.08M a year ago. The median target price by analysts for the stock is $175.00.

Average recommendation: Overweight

Source: Marketwatch

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

On July 12, 2012, KeyBanc Capital Mkts initiated Buy rating for the company.

On April 24, 2012, Miller Tabak upgraded the company from Hold to Buy.

On April 9, 2012, Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform rating for the company.

On February 6, 2012, Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform rating for the company.

Latest News

On April 26, 2012, Panera Bread Company announced that for the second quarter of 2012, it expects earnings per share (EPS) target in the range of $1.40-$1.43 and expects comparable store sales to increase in the range of 4.5%-5.5%. For fiscal 2012, it is raising it's earnings per share target from $5.50 to $5.55 per share, up to $5.58 to $5.63 per share and it expects to be at the high end of the Company's previous full year comparable store sales target range of 4.5%-5.5%. According to I/B/E/S Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report EPS of $1.42 for the second quarter of 2012.

On April 10, 2012, Panera Bread Company announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Thomas Patrick Kelly Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective April 9, 2012.

On March 15, 2012, Panera Bread Company announced that Founder and Executive Chairman, Ron Shaich, and President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Bill Moreton, will become co-CEOs, effective immediately.

On February 7, 2012, Panera Bread Company announced that it expects diluted earnings per share of $1.33 to $1.35 for the first quarter of 2012 and EPS of $5.50 to $5.55 for fiscal 2012.

Competitors

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Tim Hortons (THI), and The Wendy's Company (WEN) are considered major competitors for Panera Bread and the table below provides the key metrics for these companies and the industry.

The chart below compares the stock price changes as a percentage for the selected companies for the last one year period.

On June 28, 2012, The Wendy's Company announced that it is reaffirming its fiscal 2012 outlook for adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations in a range of $320-$335 million.

On June 12, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc he announced that for fiscal 2012, it expects revenue growth to between 6%-8% with operating income growth of between 10%-12%.

On June 7, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc announced that Neil Moses, formerly Dunkin' Brands Chief Financial Officer, is being named Chief Global Strategy Officer in recognition of his increasing focus on driving the Company's strategic initiatives.

On May 8, 2012, The Wendy's Company announced that based on these results, the Company has revised fiscal 2012 outlook for Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations to a range of $320 million to $335 million.

On April 26, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share of common stock, payable May 16, 2012, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 7, 2012.

On April 26, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc announced that for fiscal 2012, it is increasing its range for revenue growth to between 7% and 8% with adjusted operating income growth of between 12% and 14 %. The Company is increasing its range for adjusted earnings per share to $1.21 to $1.24. The Company reported revenue of $628.2 million and operating profit of $270.7 million in fiscal 2011.

On April 23, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc announced the signing of a multi-unit store development agreement with three franchise groups to develop 25 new restaurants in Texas over the next several years.

On April 19, 2012, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. announced that for fiscal 2012, it expects mid single digit comparable restaurant sales growth.

On April 5, 2012, The Wendy's Company announced an agreement with The Wissol Group to develop 25 restaurants in Georgia and the Republic of Azerbaijan over the next 10 years.

On April 2, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc, the parent company of Dunkin' Donuts (DD) and Baskin-Robbins (BR), the National DCP, the exclusive supply chain partner for Dunkin' Brands, and The Coca-Cola Company announced a multi-year product and marketing agreement.

On March 30, 2012, Dunkin' Brands Group Inc announced that it has priced an upsized public offering by certain of its stockholders of 26.4 million shares of its common stock at a price of $29.50 per share.

On March 6, 2012, Dunkin Brands Group Inc announced that its Board of Directors has approved the initiation of a cash dividend to shareholders. The quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share will be paid on March 28, 2012, to shareholders of record on the close of business on March 19, 2012.

On March 1, 2012, The Wendy's Company reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2012, including adjusted EBITDA of $335 million to $345 million, which it originally issued at its January 30, 2012, Investor Day. In fiscal 2013 and beyond, the Company is targeting an average annual Adjusted EBITDA growth rate in the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range.

On February 13, 2012, The Wendy's Company announced the declaration of its regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, payable on March 15, 2012 to stockholders of record as of March 1, 2012.

On February 1, 2012, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. announced that for fiscal 2012, it expects mid single digit comparable restaurant sales growth.

On January 30, 2012, The Wendy's Company announced that for fiscal 2012, it expects adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $335 million to $345 million. The outlook reflects continuing operations and excludes items such as relocation costs and other expenses related to the consolidation of the Atlanta restaurant support center with the Dublin, Ohio restaurant support center, which the Company estimates to be approximately $23 million.

Technical Overview

The stock has a market capitalization of $4.48B and is currently trading at $150.69 with a 52 week range of $96.68 - $165.99. The stock's year-to-date performance has been 6.53%. It is currently trading above 20, 50 and 200 SMA.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, Marketwatch, Finviz, Reuters.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.