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Wednesday, 22 May 2013

The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Monaco Grand Prix

Yesterday
I posted the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.
As usual, as we approach Sunday's race I'm also going to make a set
of
pre and post qualifying tips for the Monaco Grand Prix and then see how
I get on compared to the form guide.

Following the pattern I started for Spain, I'm going to start with a
series of shorter priced bets and then follow this with a selection of
higher priced risky bets. Bear in mind also that last time out my post-qualifying tips resoundly outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, so it may be wiser to wait until the form of the teams becomes more apparent later in the weekend before placing any bets.

Also bear in mind that I'm making these tips before first practise, and
practise at Monaco takes place a day earlier than usual on the Thursday,
so the odds may well change once the bookies get a chance to analyse
the practise times.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 3.75 (SkyBet, Bet365)
Lewis Hamilton has been talking up his chances ahead of the weekend and Fernando Alonso likewise seems to regard Mercedes as the favourites for victory at Monaco. The lack of high speed corners at Monaco should mean less tyre wear than we've seen so far this year, which will of course help Mercedes, and you also have to consider that Monaco is the most difficult track on the calendar for overtaking, so if Mercedes can claim pole once again then they'll have a better chance of holding the lead and should be less likely to slide back down the order quite as dramatically as they have done on some occasions. Given the difficulty in overtaking we may also see teams at the front going for strategies involving a lower number of pitstops (in an attempt to hold up their rivals), which again reduces the opportunities for overtaking during the pitstops.

However, despite all this, based on the extreme drop off in performance we've seen from Mercedes during the races, I'm going to ignore the opinions of Lewis and Fernando, and go for Sebastian Vettel to claim his third victory of the season.

Top Six Finish:20 points on Felipe Massa at 1.72 (Bet365)
It's generally Fernando Alonso who grabs the headlines for Ferrari, but Felipe Massa has been doing a solid job in the background this year, taking four top six finishes already and only a double tyre failure at Bahrain preventing him from making it five out of five.

Qualifying Winning Margin:20 points on Qualifying Winning Margin - 0.15 Seconds Or More at 2.00 (SkyBet)
So
far this season every qualifying session has seen pole position achieved with a comfortable margin of at least a quarter of a second, and in fact the average qualifying
winning margin has been 0.37 seconds.

Qualifying Winning Team:20 points on Mercedes at 1.91 (PaddyPower)
Mercedes are currenty on a hat-trick of pole positions with Lewis Hamilton claiming pole in China and Nico Rosberg following this up in Bahrain and Spain. They were priced at 4.0 for pole at Spain, and sadly the bookies aren't feeling anywhere near as generous this time around, but on current form Mercedes would still look to be the bet to go for.

Highest Scoring Team:20 points on Red Bull at 2.75 (Ladbrokes)
Red Bull have been dominant at Monaco in recent years, with 2010, 2011 and 2012 producing a hat-trick
of wins and both their drivers finishing no lower than
fourth.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:10 points eachway (20 points in total) on Mark Webber at 13.0 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes)
Mark
has had an inconsistent season so far, but he's won two of the three last Monaco Grand Prix, so he clearly likes the circuit and at odds of 13.0 is definitely worth considering if you're looking for a longer priced bet.

Fastest Qualifier:20 points on Nico Rosberg at 4.5 (Ladbrokes)
Mercedes are on a roll in qualifying at the moment and Nico has had the edge over Lewis recently, so although the bookies make Lewis Hamilton the marginal favourite, the slightly longer odds available on Rosberg are enough to sway me in his favour.

Not To Be Classified:20 points on Romain Grosjean at 4.5 (SkyBet)
Monaco traditionally has a high attrition rate and yet some bookies (SkyBet in particular) don't seem to have shortened their odds much at all in the 'Not To Be Classified' market. The last three Monaco Grand Prix have seen on average approximately a third of the field not making it to the chequered flag, so if you fancy a bet on a driver not to finish then this is probably the weekend to go for it.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.75 (PaddyPower, Bet 365)
Paul Di Resta has been the most profitable bet so far this season in the Top Ten Finish betting market, but he's priced at a narrow 1.4 this weekend. I'm therefore going to look further down the pecking order and go for Daniel Ricciardo to claim his third points scoring finish of the season at odds of 2.75.

Double Podium Finish:20 points on Red Bull at 5.5 (PaddyPower)

Once again bear in mind that my post qualifying tips outperformed my pre qualifying tips at the Spanish Grand Prix, and also at Monaco grid position is far more important than at other races, so it may well be wiser to wait until after qualifying before deciding who to bet on this weekend.