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Friday, January 24, 2014

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 51: Capitals at Devils, January 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the road once more after
their brief (one game) respite in the friendly confines of Verizon Center. This trip starts with a game in Newark, New
Jersey, the Paris of Essex County.
There, in “Brick City,” the Capitals will visit the New Jersey Devils
who, like the Capitals, have had a spotty start to the new calendar year.

Despite handing the St. Louis Blues their worst loss of the
season in a 7-1 decision last Tuesday, the Devils are only 4-3-3 in 2014. It was out of character for the Devils to lay
that kind of thumping on an opponent.
The seven goals was the most scored by New Jersey since putting up seven
against the New York Islanders back on April 10, 2010, in a 7-1 win. The six-goal margin of victory was the widest
for the Devils since that same win over the Islanders.

To that point, the Devils managed only a total of 18 goals
in their first nine games this month. It
was not the only difference. In their
first nine games this month New Jersey was 5-for-26 on the power play (19.2
percent), but went 3-for-4 against the Blues.
Their penalty kill was 26-for-31 (83.9 percent) in the first nine games
of January, but 3-for-3 against the Blues.

The Devils have had a relatively small circle of scorers in
the 2014 portion of their season. Over
the last ten games 12 different skaters shared in the 25 goals. The odd part of that is that only nine players
had goals in the first nine of those games.
It was not until Game 10, that 7-1 pasting of St. Louis, that the Devils
broke out and expanded their goal-scoring offering with three additional
players – Mark Fayne, Damien Brunner, and Ryan Carter – scoring their first
goals of the month.

Overall, Adam Henrique and Michael Ryder share the lead in
goals in January with four apiece for the Devils. Henrique is having a decent season after a disappointing sophomore season in which he was 11-5-16 in 42 games. Henrique, you will remember, was a Calder Trophy finalist in his rookie season. Through 51 games this season he is 13-12-25,
his 13 goals being third on the team. He
has three goals in his last five games (3-1-4) and is 1-3-4 in seven career
games against the Capitals.

Ryder is at the other end of the experience spectrum. The ten-year veteran has 728 games with four
different teams on his resume. This is
his first year with the Devils, and he is tied for the team lead in goals with
Jaromir Jagr. The odd part of his being
tied for the team lead in goals this month is that he does not have one in his
last five games, his longest drought since an 11-game streak that ended with the first
Devils’ game in December. Ryder has been
quietly effective over his career against the Caps, scoring 15 goals in 30
career games (15-6-21).

Goaltending for the Devils is in transition. Cory Schneider was obtained from Vancouver in
a surprising draft day trade last summer that snared the ninth-overall pick for the Canucks
(Bo Horvat). Schneider was immediately
designated Martin Brodeur’s successor to be.
It is the succeeding part that has dragged on this season through 51
games. Seems that: a) Brodeur was not
entirely ready to abdicate his position, and b)… well, there really is no
“b.”

The two have roughly split appearances down the middle,
Brodeur with 27 and Schneider with 24.
Schneider is the one with the better numbers and the worse luck. In his 24 appearances he has a better goals
against average than Brodeur (1.88 to 2.36) and a better save percentage (.926
to .905). However, his record is 8-9-7, while Brodeur’s is 13-10-4. Only once this season, that being on December
23rd against Chicago when he allowed five goals on 37 shots, has
Schneider allowed more than three goals in a game. What he has benefited from is light
work. Only six times in 24 appearances
has he faced more than 30 shots on goal.
On the other hand, Schneider, who is expected to get Friday’s start
against the Caps, has been lights out (as in “goal lights”) over his last seven
appearances. He is 4-1-2 over those
seven games, 1.11, .960, with one shutout, and has not allowed more than two
goals in any game. He has no career
decisions against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall...

1. The Devils defense
and goaltending is consistent in their outcomes in regulation – fourth fewest
goals allowed in the first period, third fewest goals allowed in the second
period, eighth fewest goals allowed in the third period. On the other hand, only eight teams have
allowed more goals in overtime, and only Chicago has more losses in extra time.

2. New Jersey’s
offense leaves a bit to be desired. Only
three teams have scored fewer goals at 5-on-5.
They might be better served to play at 4-on-4. Only five teams have more goals scored at
4-on-4 than the Devils.

3. Despite being a
team that plays low-scoring games, New Jersey is 28th of 30 teams in
winning percentage in one-goal games (12-9-11).
A big problem is that they are 0-8 in the trick shot competition. They are not just bad in this phase of the
game, they are historically bad. One
goal on 25 shots taken (Reid Boucher…seriously). Until this season the worst shooting
percentage in the freestyle competition for a season was in 2006-2007 when
Carolina finished with one goal on 17 shots (5.9 percent). The Devils also happen to have the third
worst save percentage in the Gimmick (.560).

4. Scoring first is
paramount against the Devils. New Jersey
has the worst record in the league when trailing first (4-14-5). They have the third-worst record in the
league when trailing after one period.
This is not a team built for comebacks.

5. One might expect a
team that plays close to the vest to be a good possession team (frankly, they
had better be). New Jersey is such a
team. The Devils are third in the league
in Corsi-for percentage and fifth in the league in Fenwick-for percentage in
5-on-5 close score situations.

1. The road has been
unkind to the Caps lately. Since winning
consecutive road games against the Islanders and Rangers across a nine-day
period in late November/early-December, the Caps are 2-6-2 on the road and have
been outscored, 34-22, in those ten games.

2. Special teams have
been opposites of one another in those last ten road games. The power play has been fine, very good in
fact (9-29; 31.0 percent). The penalty
kill has been an adventure (26-for-35; 74.3 percent).

3. If this contest
goes to the extra-extra time, the Caps still have a fine record. Washington is tied for second in wins (eight)
and third in shooting percentage (40.4 percent). They fall a bit short on save percentage,
where they are tied for 20th.
After winning their first four Gimmicks of the season, the Caps are 4-6
since, and they are currently on a three-game losing streak in this phase of
the game. The Caps have lost their last
five extra-time games, overall, including two games settled in overtime.

4. The Caps are
1-for-21 (4.8 percent) on the power play over their last seven games, 19-for-25
(76.0 percent) on the penalty kill.

5. In their current
0-4-2 winless streak, the Caps are skating in a big vat of bad puck luck. Despite an overall Corsi-for percentage of 52.4
percent in 5-on-5 close situations and a Fenwick-for percentage of 52.0
percent, the Caps are shooting to a 2.8 percent mark (three goals on 109
shots) in those same situations. Even with a save percentage in
such situations of .930, the Caps’ PDO is just 958.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jaromir Jagr

Somewhere, deep in the bowels of Prudential Center, perhaps,
there hangs a portrait of Jaromir Jagr, the image wizened with age, hair
turned thinning and gray, his posture stooped.
OK, so he is not the second coming of Dorian Gray. But heavens, he is going to be 42 years old
in a few weeks, and he leads the Devils in goals, assists, points, plus-minus,
and game-winning goals. He is doing it
while still averaging more than 19 minutes of ice time a night. OK, so it is on a team that is otherwise
offensively challenged, but it is still a remarkable performance so far. He comes into this games with goals in three
of his last four games (3-1-4) and is 30-58-88 in 71 career games against the
Caps.

Washington: Eric Fehr

In the Capitals’ last road win, Eric Fehr had a pair of
goals, including the game-winner with under a minute to play. That was the last time Fehr lit the lamp as
he enters this game on a seven-game streak without a goal. If Alex Ovechkin misses his second straight
game, the Caps need someone to act as a finisher. Fehr could inherit that role, especially if
he mans the trigger spot in the left wing circle on the power play.

Keys:

1. Score first. Self-explanatory; the Devils simply are not a
comeback sort of club.

2. Be crisp and
consistent. The Devils are a club with a
long history of using the same formula for success. Strangle a club in the neutral zone, deny
them opportunities to get into a flow.
If the Caps try to connect on long bombs through the neutral zone, they’re
going to find themselves on the wrong side of possession in a big way. Crisp passing, consistent application of a
simple game plan.

3. No softies. In a low scoring game, which this would seem
likely to be, the odd lackadaisical goal allowed is crippling. None of that tonight.

In the end…

The Devils actually provide a suitable foil for the Caps at
this point of their losing streak.
Winning is going to be the product of simple, basic, fundamental, not to
mention persistent hockey. Simply put,
if the Caps don’t play such a game, they don’t win. The Devils might lack flash, but they don’t
beat themselves that way.

The other stuff

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