STAR SEARCH NBA SCOUTS AND EXECS, FOR ALL THEIR SCIENCE AND SAVVY, HAVE LEARNED ONE TRUTH ABOUT THE DRAFT: IT'S A VERY TRICKY GAME

An errant outlet pass thrown last June in the cozy gym of MoodyBible College stood about a one-in-five chance of braining anNBA legend. Kevin McHale and Larry Bird, Jerry West and ElginBaylor, Willis Reed and Red Holzman, as well as 250 or so otherrepresentatives from every team in the league, ringed the threecourts in a sweat-suited frieze, patting backs and bending ears.As executives, scouts and coaches, they had gathered in Chicagoto eyeball 60 or so draft-eligible players, some familiar(Kentucky forward Rodrick Rhodes) and some foreign (ZydrunasIlgauskas, a 7'1" Lithuanian). Scrimmaging for four days underthe scrutiny of some of the keenest minds in basketball, theseassorted twentysomethings were inkblots in that most fascinatingof Rorschach tests: sizing up NBA prospects.

As the pro hopefuls ran through some standard NBA sets, Lakerassistant coach Larry Drew bird-dogged from the bleachers. Thecamp, designed to take players out of their comfort zones, hasno familiar systems or longtime coaches in place forreassurance. As a result, the league's likely lottery picksdon't play here; they don't care to subject themselves to thiskind of examination and risk a possible plummeting of theirdraft-day value. But many potential late-first- and second-roundchoices are on hand. "Those that have a defined talent willstand out right away," said Drew. "You can feel it."

On the near court Travis Best, a point guard from Georgia Tech,ran that NBA staple, the high pick-and-roll, to the left of thefree throw line. In one sequence Best used the screen topenetrate left, draw the double team and dish to a cutter for agimme. On the next he drove the paint and finished himself witha clever layup. Drew, an ex-playmaker, got excited. "The otherguys here are working too hard, but you can see how fluid heis," Drew said. "His stock rolls on those two plays alone." Bestwould wind up going to Indiana as the 23rd pick three weeks later.

A basketball scout has certain advantages over his brethren fromfootball and baseball: fewer participants to watch in action atany moment, constant movement that yields streams of insight,ready visibility of each misstep from courtside. That edge isborne out by the numbers: Nearly 75% of the NBA's starters lastseason were first-round picks. And yet every year, after teamshave spent as much as seven figures on their scoutingoperations, millions of cap-consuming dollars are doled out torookies who will amount to little more than bench ornaments,while future All-Stars go undrafted.

For, in truth, the appraiser's art is not merely in assessingtalent. Indeed, his preliminary remarks about a prospect arelikely to be of a simplistic, binary nature. He showsup/disappears. I like/don't like him. Or that favorite,straight-to-the-bottom-line comment: He can/can't play. Theoperative skill really lies in the projecting of future pros.Can that scout transpose the NAIA scoring champ or the Big Tenblunderbuss or the Greek jump shooter--mind, body and soul--fromhis formative environment to the high-speed, high-pressure,high-salaried world of the NBA? And can he then accurately slotthat player in the draft's order?

"In basketball, more than any other sport, you can only do whatthe defense permits you to do," says Portland scout BuckyBuckwalter. The implication: What is permissible in collegewill often be forbidden in the pros. The two scales have suchdifferent calibrations that even Stu Inman, an astute coach andexecutive with Portland, Milwaukee and Miami from 1969 to '93,predicted less than surefire stardom for the three NBAsupernovas of the last decade. "As much as I liked MichaelJordan, I have to admit I never saw nearly as much ability as hehas shown," Inman says. "I'd say the same thing about Larry Birdand Magic Johnson. Magic's a winner, and you loved him, but highdribble, suspect shooting.... Bird labors up and down the court,bad body, can't jump; I don't know who he can cover. I never sawthe genius in those three kids."

Whenever a Laker scout sees a prospect, he fills out a smallevaluation form and gives a 1-to-5 rating in 18 categoriesranging from "effort" to "balance," while also writing downpersonal observations and noting statistics. All these cards arecollated and the staff's vision coordinated until that momentwhen West, the executive vice president of basketballoperations, must phone in L.A.'s picks during the draft. And yetWest, one of the shrewdest and most successful executives in NBAhistory, whose team has had tremendous success in the draft inrecent years (page 38), frankly admits that his team's decisionsare nearly as random as a coin flip. "We take our draft veryseriously, as I'm sure everyone else does," West says. "[But]there's probably been times after when we say, 'How in the helldid we draft this guy?'"

So just what in the heck are these basketball brainiacs reallyseeing when they watch a flock of All-Americas race up and downthe court? The answer comes in the form of the questions eachscout must ask himself as he assesses a prospect.

How athletic is he? In the pros the irreducible equation is oneversus one: Getting a shot off, let alone hitting it, against anNBA defender requires extraordinary quickness or size. Thosewith both, as well as skill, can write their own lotterytickets. Kevin Garnett, a 6'11", 220-pound forward, was takenfifth by the Timberwolves in the '95 draft largely because of aworkout in which, according to one onlooker, "He ran and jumpedlike Superman." That display was so seductive that it did notmatter much that Garnett was 19, had just graduated from highschool and had worked out without facing any defense.

Conversely, skill without athleticism is not reason enough forbeing drafted. To wit: Arkansas's Scotty Thurman, a 6'5" guardwho went unchosen in 58 picks last June. An All-SEC performer, asuperb clutch shooter and a Final Four hero, Thurman lacked boththe explosiveness to beat a defender off the dribble and thelateral quickness to cover on the perimeter. "It wasn't obviousall the time," one scout says, "but when you did see him inman-to-man situations against a quick player, you could seewhere his feet just weren't good enough."

A scout must look for such telltale moments, when the conditionsduring a college game mimic those of the pros. Because of theabsurd, end-to-end style at Loyola Marymount, Bo Kimble averaged35.3 points a game as a senior but seldom had to put the ball onthe floor to create his own shot, a necessity for an NBAshooting guard. Despite Kimble's never demonstrating this skill,the Clippers picked him No. 8 in the 1990 draft; last year hewas out of the league. On the other hand, playmaker Sam Cassell,the Rockets' first-round choice in '93 out of Florida State andnow an integral member of the two-time world champs, instantlycaptivated John Killilea, Houston's director of playerpersonnel. "Sam dove, stole the ball, rolled over and threw itto someone at midcourt," Killilea recalls. "Then he scrambled tohis feet, got back into the play, and when someone shot andmissed, Sam got the rebound and put it back in. Right then andthere I had the same feeling for Sam that I had for my wife thefirst time I met her."

Does he have an NBA body? Anyone who has watched a pro game hasa rough idea of the typical player's build (broad shoulders,long limbs, sinewy muscles) as well as the height and weightspecs for each position. Those are the guidelines against whichscouts measure potential draftees, and no part of a prospect'sanatomy escapes their gaze. "Usually I look at kids' butts,"says Will Robinson, the Pistons' director of player personnel."I like small butts because that means they can probably jumpwell."

The wingspan of Scottie Pippen, a 6'7" forward from CentralArkansas, prompted Bull G.M. Jerry Krause to trade for him afterSeattle had selected him fifth in '87. Dick Van Arsdale, thedirector of player personnel in Phoenix, avoids drafting whatthe Suns call "10-to-2-ers." "They're duck-footed--like 10 to 2on the clock," Van Arsdale says. "Most guys run pigeon-toed."And good hands are, of course, vital for hoops, the larger andsofter the better. "Especially for a big man," says Sacramentoscouting director Scotty Stirling. "If he can catch the ball, hehas a chance to play."

No aspect of a prospect's body matters more than his height. Bigmen may be the hardest to get a fix on: The number of qualityopponents they face in college is limited, and because of theirsize, their skills are often slower to develop. At the sametime, Marty Blake, the NBA's scouting guru, has estimated that ateam has a chance to draft a quality center only "once every19 1/2 years," a stat that has driven those lacking a presence inthe pivot to desperate lengths. Take Larue Martin. The Blazersdid--with the No. 1 pick in 1972. Why? Because, Inman says, "hewas the only center available." Martin, out of Loyola (Chicago),lasted only four seasons, with career averages of 5.3 points and4.6 rebounds a game.

What's in his heart? The NBA demands survival skills; that spinmove that was so reliable in college will be the first to bestripped from a player's arsenal in the pros. Will that rookiethen, out of pride and determination and sheer love of the game,devote the time it takes to expand his repertoire--even if he canalready retire on his first contract? As Robinson puts it, "Idon't know how anyone can play until he gets punched in thenose. Will he back down, or is he going to fight back? When Imiss on a player, I always know why: I couldn't measure how muchheart he has." One warrior the Pistons were right about wasfive-time All-Star Joe Dumars, a bargain at No. 18 out ofMcNeese State.

Those who consider psychological makeup on a par with physicalability cite as evidence the ill-fated lottery picks of '86. LenBias, picked second by the Celtics, died of a cocaine overdosetwo days after the draft; Chris Washburn, chosen next by GoldenState, was plagued by personal problems; William Bedford, theSuns' selection at No. 6, went into drug rehab. Each had theability and build of an NBA star; none ever averaged as many asseven points in a season. "You can't draft on potential," saysEd Gregory, the Warriors' director of scouting.

A player's attitude may be partially discerned from courtside;his facial expression after a bad call, his reaction to beingbenched or his resiliency on an off night can be epiphanous fora scout. But over the past decade, in which the averagefirst-rounder's salary soared roughly 700%, teams pumped moremoney into evaluating all aspects of a player's makeup.Psychological tests--with up to 600 questions, including thingslike "Did you grow up playing with dolls?"--are now standardissue. Private eyes, who run down rap sheets and knownassociates and even speak with neighbors, are hired for up to$30,000 per case when teams are in doubt about the character ofa potential No. 1 pick. And almost every first-rounder issubjected to a series of interviews with coaches andfront-office personnel. "How many other businesses hirewell-paid employees without sitting down with them?" asks CelticG.M. Jan Volk.

Direct contact is often the most revealing approach. One teampassed on center Luther Wright, the No. 18 choice by Utah in1993, after Wright 1) left his return ticket on the plane, 2)kept a scout waiting for him in a hotel lobby and 3) wanderedoff in the middle of a discussion with an assistant coach.Wright, who now plays for the USBL's New Jersey Turnpikes, wasshown the exit sign after 15 games with the Jazz. In 1989 theCelts soured on Missouri center Gary Leonard, who arrived inBoston wearing shorts, sandals, red suspenders and a T-shirt,then opted not to don dressier clothes before meeting the teambrass. Leonard, Minnesota's pick at No. 34, is now out of probasketball.

Most important, getting up close and personal is the only way totest the buzz about a player, the consensus from scouts and thepress. Remember: Utah Dream Teamer Karl Malone and PortlandAll-Star Clifford Robinson were considered by some scouts to be"soft" coming out of college; budding stars Nick Van Exel of theLakers (page 46) and Robert Horry of the Rockets had "attitudes."

Does he have a feel for the game? If height, as the bromidegoes, is something you can't teach, then so is "feel." It's theintuitive understanding of the game's flow, the ability toanticipate every move on the floor, the knack for making gooddecisions. Those especially blessed with it will have successfulcareers despite palpable limitations, such as being a half steptoo slow (Pacer point guard Mark Jackson) or a half foot toosmall (5'3" Muggsy Bogues of Charlotte) or a half ton too heavy(Indiana forward John [Hot Plate] Williams). Mark Price, aproven scorer at Georgia Tech, slipped to No. 25 because somescouts questioned whether, at 6 feet, he was big enough to gethis shot off in the pros. But his court savvy helped him developinto an All-Star for the Cavaliers, who acquired his rights fromDallas following the '86 draft.

Unlike height, however, feel is not subject to a tape measure.Killilea tries to discern it by the way a player moves withoutthe ball in the half-court; Stirling looks for it during fastbreaks, when split-second decisions have to be made. West hasfound himself "mesmerized" at games by kids who are invariablyin the right place at the right time. "I don't care how quick orfast he is or how high he jumps," West says. "Those guys whoseem to know and have the basic instincts to play the game theway it's designed to be played are the ones who make the bestplayers."

What skills does he have? Scouts believe that the toughestposition to fill besides center is point guard; along with beingathletic and tough, the great playmaker must possess an uncommonstreak of creativity in order to break down defenses anddistribute the ball to his teammates. The multifaceted playerwho can not only score in the clutch but also pass and reboundand defend is a rare breed as well. (A trick for spotting them:Imagine that the player had to change positions--say, fromshooting guard to small forward--and gauge how well he would farethere.) Once a team has those bases covered, it needsrole-players to fill out the roster: shot blockers, three-pointdeadeyes, low-post and perimeter defenders, assist men. As aresult, many a well-rounded All-America fails to fit into thespecialized square holes of the NBA.

"You find players who are pretty good at everything--nice this,nice that, but not great at anything," Gregory says. "A lot ofthose guys fail. The superstars have two or three skills thatare outstanding; a guy has to have at least one. Danny Ferry [areserve forward for Cleveland who was taken second overall inthe '89 draft] is a good example. It's not that he can'tcontribute to the NBA, but he was drafted too high. He doesn'thave one skill that is outstanding."

The specific gifts needed to do one thing superbly in collegeoften do translate directly to the pros. For instance,rebounders who have that blend of instinct, strength,explosiveness and tenacity frequently fare well at both levels.Dennis Rodman, who averaged 17.8 boards as a senior at NAIASoutheast Oklahoma, was taken 27th by Detroit in '86 because ofthat skill.

Whom is he like? At the Moody gym this summer, Detroit directorof scouting John Hammond was giving an enthusiastic rundown on6'9 1/2" Theo Ratliff (whom the Pistons later drafted 18th).Ratliff had quietly blossomed into a rugged rebounder and shotblocker at Wyoming; his 425 career swats are second in NCAAhistory only to Alonzo Mourning's 453. "He could be an AntonioDavis for us," Hammond said.

The quest for the next Antonio Davis, Indiana's backupcenter-forward, underlines the league's bandwagon mentality,most recently proven by a run on Europeans (page 60), thanks tothe success of Sarunas Marciulionis and Vlade Divac, a couple oflate-'80s imports. Despite the fact that legends like Bird andMagic fit no obvious mold, staff meetings before the draft areas packed with similes as pitch meetings at a Hollywood studio:He's like a lefthanded Mo Cheeks or He's like Danny Manning,only 6'7". While these sorts of comparisons are often necessaryfor getting a fix on a player, they can also lead a teammightily astray. In 1985 Dallas passed at No. 8 on a LouisianaTech power forward with a mother named Shirley. That was KarlMalone. Four years later another power forward from Tech rearedby a Shirley was available with the eighth choice. So the Mavsgrabbed Randy White, who in five seasons never remotelyapproached the Mailman's ZIP code.

Is he a winner? Those who discounted the diminutive Boguesoverlooked the bottom line: The teams he played for in highschool, college international competitions and predraft campsusually won. Sacramento director of player personnel JerryReynolds mentally juggles lineups to measure a particularplayer's impact. "Take Ed O'Bannon and UCLA," Reynolds says."Put any other small forward in the mix. Could they have donethe same thing and been as good? Put O'Bannon [the Nets' pick atNo. 9] in place of Michael Finley and try to see how Wisconsinwould have done. If your answer is, 'Yes, they could have beenbetter,' then you probably have a pretty good hand."

Of course, just how good is a measure that no scout can trulyknow before the NBA games begin. Thus the G.M. is in a positionof needing to weigh a number of educated guesses from his staffwhile considering the bigger picture of his current roster andhis team's style. He must also guard against having his judgmentwarped by time and emphasizing a prospect's recent displaysrather than the full arc of his college career. In 1989 the76ers drafted Louisville forward Kenny Payne 19th after hisimpressive workout. Payne lasted just more than three seasons.

On the other hand, the Magic was smitten by Anfernee Hardawayduring his private 90-minute workout and swung a deal for himthat could keep them contending into the next millennium. Forevery rule there is an exception; for every question, a millionmore.

That is, after all, the nature of the Information Age. It's afar cry from 25 years ago, when one full-time scout's baselineview on a wintry Saturday might determine a top-10 pick. In thistime of globetrotting gumshoes, satellite-TV hookups and theInternet, there are no secrets anymore; finding a sleeper is aslikely as discovering the next megastarlet at Schwab's. Butthere is still mystery in scouting, which makes it all the moreintriguing. For, ultimately, an edge--any edge--lies in the eye ofthe beholder.

COLOR PHOTO: JOHN BIEVER Pippen played out of the spotlight at tiny Central Arkansas but soon proved he was anything but a reach as a No. 5 pick in '87. [Scottie Pippen playing basketball for Chicago Bulls]B/W PHOTO: UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to reveal Scottie Pippen playing basketball for Central Arkansas]COLOR PHOTO: JOHN W. MCDONOUGH A slam-dunk pick for the Lakers, Divac prompted other NBA teams to take a crash course in foreign relations. [Vlade Divac playing basketball for Los Angeles Lakers]B/W PHOTO: ALLSPORT (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to revealVlade Divac playing basketball in Europe]COLOR PHOTO: DAVID E. KLUTHOThe Pistons knew McNeese's Dumars could score from outside, but they also liked him for what he had inside. [Joe Dumars playing basketball for Detroit Pistons]B/W PHOTO: MCNEESE STATE UNIVERSITY (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to revealJoe Dumars playing basketball for McNeese State]COLOR PHOTO: JOHN W. MCDONOUGHRodman's flair for rebounding has been as fashionable in the pros as it was at Southeastern Oklahoma State. [Dennis Rodman playing basketball for San Antonio Spurs]B/W PHOTO: THE SPORTING NEWS (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to reveal Dennis Rodman playing basketball for Southeastern Oklahoma State]COLOR PHOTO: LOU CAPOZZOLA/NBA PHOTOSThe Cavs got a bargain in Price, a No. 25 pick whose court sense more than compensates for his lack of size. [Mark Price playing basketball for Cleveland Cavaliers]B/W PHOTO: MANNY MILLAN (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to revealMark Price playing basketball for Georgia Tech]COLOR PHOTO: JOHN W. MCDONOUGHPortland's Robinson, a late pick at No. 36, quickly rejected the notion that he was too soft to survive life in the NBA. [Clifford Robinson playing basketball for Portland Trail Blazers]B/W PHOTO: ANTHONY NESTE (INSET) [See caption above--corner of photo above peeled away to revealClifford Robinson playing basketball for Connecticut]