Saturday, June 06, 2009

Just Rising

The new NANOS poll puts Liberal national support at the highest level we've seen from any pollster since Harper took office. Not exactly a sign of attack ad effectiveness, it looks more and more like the 6 million dollar smear campaign is a BUST. Yesterday, I saw uber hack Tim Powers on television, telling us all to watch for the new poll that he was apparently privy too, he seemed confident. Tim must have got his numbers backwards, poor thing:

Libs 37.2%Cons 31.8%NDP 15.7%Greens 7.4%

Not a huge change from the last NANOS poll, a 3.8% national gap is now 5.4%, but the trend continues. NANOS also shows a new pollster high water mark for the Liberals in Quebec, now ahead of the Bloc:

Libs 38%Blocs 35%NDP 13%Cons 12%

The Liberals have a solid lead in Ontario, the gap comparable to other findings:

Libs 42%Cons 34%NDP 14%Greens 10%

The last NANOS poll only showed a 4% gap, now 8%. You can make a timid argument that Ontario is trending back to the Liberals, although the requisite caution is in order.

NANOS has the Liberals up everywhere, with the exception of the "west". That said, it's also encouraging to see polling in the 30's for this region, because it suggests some strength outside of Alberta and Sask.

NANOS also asks voters what they think about a summer election. In a shocking finding, we see very little support for going to the polls. Whether the Liberals should heed the overwhelming sentiment against an election call is a debatable point.

Given the regional breakdowns and national gap, these type of numbers would translate into a solid Liberal minority. As the post attack ad polls come in, Conservatives are reduced to the argument that you must wait a few months before drawing any conclusions. Personally, while I understand that these ads can have a cumulative effect over time, it's a pretty weak retort at this point. Fact is, when you unleash the largest non-election advertising buy in history, on par with a full election expenditure, one would expect to see some evidence by now. The "you just wait" argument looks more wishful thinking than anything.

Ah, I just figured the conservatives had "misjudged" the pricing estimates leading them to spend twice their initial budget due to "market forces no one could have foreseen" in the global television and radio markets.

That, and they forgot to read the contract, which was left at a media event announcing the campaign.

Our household has been polled/called twice in the past week, with the questions sounding very CON-centric (If Ignatieff isn't elected he will return to Harvard - are you more or less likely to vote_? etc) so i think their 'ad buy' has included extensive polling/focus grouping to see where they should go next.It's an obscene number either way -- especially since taxpayers are subsidizing it.As to Nanos i find his numbers curious. Liberals up 2 points in Atlantic, Quebec, and the West, down a point in Ontario -- how does that compute to just a .8 gain? The number of people polled in Ontario was slightly higher than Quebec, but alot smaller than out West. But then again I'm terrible at stastici, er statisi, er numbers.

I think the result of the large deficit probably helped the Liberals rebound especially in Ontario. I suspect also the nannygate hurt them earlier and that has now passed. Lets remember, the previous Ipsos is the only recent poll done prior to the deficit. The numbers are still fluid, so it is difficult to say how things will pan out. The attack ads don't seem to be working, although I wouldn't say they are backfiring spectacularly. As for the long-term, tough to say, although if the Liberals give an effective response I doubt they will work.

This Nanos poll was taken just after the deficit announcement, so that's something to keep in mind.

Miles

The EKOS poll showed the Dhalla "dip", and that was around the same time as the last Ipsos poll. EKOS did show a Liberal rebound towards the end of their poll, in line with what Nanos found for the same dates.