At first glance, the numbers from the May 1 Shelby County primaries would suggest the "blue wave" has made it to Tennessee. Actually, it's more like a blue trickle in a rising red tide.

Roughly 20,000 new or re-engaged voters returned to the polls to cast their votes in the primaries, compared to May 2014. But about 13,000 voted for Republicans, and about 7,000 for Democrats.

That doesn't bode well for Democrats in the Aug. 2 general election.

True, Democrats out-polled their Republican counterparts in nearly all countywide races last week. For example, in the mayoral primaries, Democrat Lee Harris got about 34,000 votes and Republican nominee David Lenoir about 18,000.

That doesn't mean Harris has an advantage heading toward August. In Shelby County, Democrats have tended to be more vulnerable than Republicans to the ebb and flow of voter turnout.

In May 2010, about 35,000 Democrats and about 29,000 Republicans voted in the primaries. Three months later, Republican Luttrell was elected with more than 100,000 votes; Democrat Joe Ford got about 73,000.

In May 2014, Democrat Deidre Malone got about 38,000 votes and Republican Luttrell, the incumbent, got about 16,000. Three months later, Luttrell was re-elected with more than 90,000 votes, easily defeating Malone who got about 52,000.

In the past several election cycles, Republicans have tended to recover more voters from May to August, and from election to election.

From 2006 to to 2014, Democrats recovered about 6,000 votes; Republicans 8,000. Last week, Democrats recovered about 7,000; Republicans about 13,000.

In fact, in years when there is no Republican mayoral incumbent, new and returning Republicans have outnumbered new and returning Democrats 2:1.

In other words, for every two new voters the Republicans have brought in, Democrats have only brought in one.

Election victories are determined not by the total number of voters, but the which candidate and party does a better job of recovering voters who sat out the previous election.

Since 2010, Democrats have been working to overcome a 100,000 vote gap in general election voters.

That, I believe, explains why Republicans have dominated countywide elections since Mayor Luttrell and Sheriff Bill Oldham were elected in 2010.

Ken Taylor(Photo: Ken Taylor)

Democrats have slowly and steadily chipped away at the vote gap, but at nowhere near the pace necessary to challenge Republicans countywide.

What does this mean for August?

It's as if Republicans have stepped onto the field with 90,000 points already on the board, they won the coin-toss, chose to receive and their wide receiver caught the ball and ran it to 10-yard line.

It's not an impossible obstacle to overcome, but it is improbable, without drastic change in landscape.

What is it going to take to get Shelby County Democrats to the polls?

Waves are caused by a disturbance that transfers energy. The bigger the disturbance, the bigger the wave.

The question is not whether a Democratic wave can come to Shelby County. The question is what sort of disturbance is necessary for Democrats to transfer their energy from anger and despondency to voting.

Initiatives such as #UpTheVote and #VIP901 do a great job of inspiring people to vote; however, if Democrats want to win in this cycle it’s going to take more drastic measures.

It means firing people up, persuading them that the best place to transfer that energy is at the ballot box.