Good And Bad EV And Off Grid Forecasting

Tuesday 5th December 2017

When the Mayor of London plans a ban onparking in all new apartment blocks, it is best not to assume, as manyforecasters still do, that car sales will go on up forever. Factor in trials ofautonomous taxi-buses from Switzerland to New Zealand and the rise in internetshopping using electric delivery vans. They are all going to hit car sales,including taxis. Bill Gates’ Belmont new city in Arizona is being based on morespace-efficient, safer, less expensive alternatives to cars. Cleaner too – evenelectric cars emit particulates from their tires.

Analysts IDTechEx finds that there areseveral other indicators of dramatic change in the land, water and air vehiclesincreasingly made and operated by the same companies. The Chinese are clearerabout this than most. They bottom fish in the West to get large brands headedfor the rocks, those in denial about disruptive change, the latest examplebeing targeting Fiat Chrysler. When successful, they inject massive funds tochange direction. Volvo is an EV company now. They also buy small companiescreating that disruption. Geely buying Volvo then the flying car companyTerrafugia is an example of both. Terrafugia is also well advanced indevelopment of vertical takeoff personal aircraft and taxis. For all itsappalling corporate management, Uber is another company seeing that changecoming. Tesla too. Even if its kamikaze approach to finance kills it, otherswill continue its superb work. Airbus, Siemens and Rolls Royce now develop arange-extended electric feeder aircraft with zero emission silent modes for 24hour operation. See IDTechEx report, “Manned Electric Aircraft 2018-2028".

In sad contrast, PSA Peugeot-Citroen isreportedly preparing to sue GM, claiming it was misled over its Opel andVauxhall businesses when it bought them. It did not expect to be buyingcompanies with inadequate programs to meet impending pollution laws. Bycontrast, Volkswagen has had the good fortune to be kicked in the rightdirection by diesel emission punishments and new management and they have evenspotted another disruptive change of huge importance ten years from now. It isthe Energy Independent Electric Vehicle EIEV that is pure electric but canbypass the charging stations and electricity utilities completely: it neverplugs in. Its Audi has licensed the high efficiency solar bodywork technologyfrom Hanergy of China. Many others fail to appreciate the significance of onekilowatt from a car body that expands on parking.

Hanergy demonstrated EIEV solar cars in2016 and few people noticed. Analysts IDTechEx wrote the annual report nowcalled, “Energy Independent Electric Vehicles Land, Water, Air2018-2028" and staged the world’s first conference on the subject,publicising how New Zealand launched a solar boat July 2017 that can powerthree houses on arrival, the Chinese are ahead of the Americans and Europeansin endurance of solar drones to beam the internet to everyone and how a UScamper van now travels and cooks on sunshine alone.

Wind is important here too. An autonomousboat with a wind turbine and no solar will soon use its 70kW to cross theAtlantic rapidly, regardless of wind direction. Land vehicles and ships areusing wind with solar. Airborne Wind Energy is moving from kites to tethereddrones that can even take off in still weather to tap the four times strongerwinds above conventional wind turbines that is more consistent. Significantlyit is much stronger at night when solar is dead: the perfect partner. Here is aroute to make the world’s filthiest vehicles zero emission – large ships each belchingNOx, SOx and killer particulates equivalent to millions of cars. See theIDTechEx reports, “Airborne Wind Energy 2018-2028" and “Electric Boats and Ships 2018-2028".

There is more. There are 110 projects forsolar roads across the world and several research projects to make electricityfrom road movement, piezoelectric or electrodynamic, even one to tap surfaceheat. Even if only a minority succeed, we are facing elegantly self-powereddynamic charging of EVs as they go along and even automatic self-poweredde-icing of roads so the vehicles are safe, power being boosted by solartunnels and new types of roadside wind turbine. This is just a part ofthe astonishing off grid zero emission story. For more see IDTechExoverview, “Off Grid Zero-emission Electricity 2018-2038: NewMarkets, New Technology Roadmap" and drill down “Off Grid Electric Vehicle Charging 2018-2038",“Electricity Generation by Urban Infrastructure: ZeroEmission 2018-2050". Moving with the times, the “IDTechEx Show!" 11-12 April Berlin with over3000 paying delegates, over 250 presentations and over 220 exhibitors has addedan Off Grid conference to its parallel two day conferences on electricvehicles, batteries and other complementary technologies.

All the new technologies are leading toanother disruption most forecasters are sleeping through. The UN, WHO andothers extrapolate to predict 80% of us living in cities in 2050 and that mayindeed happen, but people are moving to cities to get jobs, communication, educationand entertainment. Piece the above changes together and we get interneteducation and entertainment, continuous phone access and almost freeelectricity in the remotest countryside, which already has much cheaperaccommodation. Remote regions get easy rapid access to cities and food growseven in beautiful wasteland. We’ll wait for the penny to drop on that one.

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