Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."

Europe's hurricane historyOnly once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikesHurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In October 2014, after battering Bermuda, the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo affected Europe as a powerful extratropical storm, bringing strong winds, torrential rain, and heavy snowfall in western, central, and southern portions of the continent. Three people were killed, and damages in Netherlands, Germany, and Slovenia were estimated at $42 million. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.

Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

CAPE in northwestern Oklahoma is more than more than sufficient for severe weather and tornadoes. All that is needed is upper-air forcing to break the cap. Today would be significant if no cap was in place.

If global warming was occurring, there would be fewer hurricanes, not more because you need cold air to mix with the warm for cyclogenesis... meteorology 101. With warming theory, there is a reduced, not increased contrast in air masses, which has not been observed. If anything, there is more air contrast. GW asserts the poles are warming, I assert that not all the data is being used, and the colder readings are being left out by the IPCC.

I've seen TV shows that blame volcanic activity in Iceland on GW, which is preposterous. They claim the ice melts off the volcanic dome, allowing the eruptions to occur. Yeah. It has nothing to do with the molten lava sitting under the ice, right? The most ridiculous claims are blamed on GW with absolutely no common sense.

Get me a consistent weather forecast that doesn't have to be changed once or twice or more in a 12-hour period. Doesn't happen, yet they claim man is for sure responsible for GW. This isn't science, but a fiasco.

I expect a lot of East Coast hurricane activity this year, little if any will reach Europe. Also, some of the worst June weather on record occurred in Europe during D-Day era. Weather goes through natural cycles and shifts constantly. Sorry, that's common sense.

If GW were real, I would certainly be sounding off to stop it, but I see only phony reports and real data being censored, so can't go along with it. We have more technology to identify hurricanes now than before 1979, so naturally we will see more hurricanes. Occurrences that have been going on all along, only were previously not observed. Common sense.

A warm front has definitely went through my area over the past couple hours. The temperature went from 50F to 60F in about 2 hours and skies have cleared a little. Wundermap shows this clearly when focusing in on the Detroit, MI area. Oh and I recorded 0.16" of rain from this morning's round of showers. It may not sound like much, but after a dry March I want some rain. A lot more looks to be in store this week.

Actually that isn't that case, the NWS has noted before in more than one study that while tropical systems bring plenty of beneficial rain there isn't any statistical correlation between wetter and drier rainy seasons having or not having tropical cyclones.

In other words, you can't conclude that it will take a tropical cyclone to end the drought, because we have had plenty of very wet rainy seasons that weren't impacted much by tropical cyclones. Obviously they play an important role, but Florida's rainy season historically does not rely on them for drought relief.If that were the case, the climate here would be significantly drier because tropical cyclones are not reliable sources for rain, they can come and not come again for many years.

Fair enough. But a weak tropical storm moving across the peninsula this June wouldn't hurt!

Quoting barbamz:Warm rain rings in springPublished: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CETGermany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

Quoting barbamz:Warm rain rings in springPublished: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CETGermany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

Wales still doesn't seem to have given up the cold, so glad for you! LOL

Been sunny and feels ok in that sun, but still that bitter wind prevails. Gotten stronger tonight and been howling down the chimney. Maybe warmer by the weekend though...supposed to 50'...heatwave! haha

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRALPLAINS AT MID WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEEKS END. THE GFS AND ECMWFCONTINUE HOWEVER TO DISAGREE ON A SOLUTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTHMODELS KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING LOWLEVEL HUMIDITY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACERIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE TWO MODELS BEGINTO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN NEARLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVERTHE PAST FEW DAYS IN BRINGING THE FRONT TO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS THEWEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN IS NO EXCEPTION WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS THEREGION ON SATURDAY WITH THE PWAT INCREASING TO MORE THAN TWOSTANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR APRIL AND THE ATMOSPHEREBECOMING VERY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE00Z RUN ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OFLAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE PWAT MUCH LESS AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONLYMARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROADAPPROACH AND WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.

Warm rain rings in springPublished: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CETGermany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

We are proud to announce that Portlight has been awarded a $250,000 grant from the Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund! This fund is overseen by New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s wife, Mary Pat, who made the formal announcement Thursday morning:

"We are very excited today to announce 15 more grants to aid in the recovery effort in New Jersey. These grants focus on housing assistance, reconstruction, mold remediation, and important financial and legal counseling services, among others," said First Lady Mary Pat Christie, Chair of the Fund. "It's an honor to partner with these wonderful organizations that are on the ground providing services for Sandy victims. This support is only made possible by the generosity of tens of thousands of individual and corporate donors who answered the call to help total strangers in need. We'll have additional grant awards soon and look forward to continuing to be an ongoing resource over the long term for New Jersey's recovery effort."

My comment: Mrs Christie was getting some flack because her charity had not dispersed funds ( in comparison, say, to the relief effort from the 12-12-12 concert) but it's great that the money is going out and that Portlight has received some. Very deserved!

And if this is old news to you, well .... Good news bears repeating :-)

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:Jedkins... When my daughter was very young and we went to Disney... (for her summer birthday) The only relief I could find was riding "It's a small World" It was cooling and no wait...But if you ever sing that song to me there will be some hostile actions....LOL

Don't worry, I think my reactions to that song are right on par with yours!

I have told this story a few times in past years; I was at an Orlando hotel in August for a Conference a few years ago when a typical afternoon t-storm spun up. Was in pool lounge having a drink and some German tourists, who ran in from the pool area as the winds and boomers hit, were asking me whether it was a hurricane..........The Father even looked like one of the guitarists from the Scorpions ("Rock You Like a Hurricane")............ :)

AGW - given some of your expressed positions, it's ironic that the article you cite is written by a professed creationist:McKitrick is a signatory to the Cornwall Alliance's Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming,[9] which states that "Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting". Link

In Southern Ontario, we have quite a bit of heavy rain showers coming through, and the rain expected over the next few days could prove monsoon-like. According to my twitter, there is a high tornado risk tonight over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.

Quoting LargoFl:“By the mid-21st century the planet will face another little ice age similar to the Maunder Minimum [the previous little ice age], “Khabibullo Abduusamatov, head of the Russian space research laboratory told RIA Novosti in an interview January 22. He said this will occur, “…because the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041.”

Other scientists in the U.S. and other countries have made similar observations, Some predict a full blown ice age rather than the "little" variety is coming soon though most are not as specific about the date. These scientists have speculated that the next ice age may have already begun but we won’t be able to verify that until some years down the road. They note that before the era of recurring ice ages, the earth had 13 times as much atmospheric carbon dioxide as it has today and the climate was much warmer and more stable.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf

"A survey of peer reviewed scientific papers from 1965 to 1979 show that few papers predicted global cooling (7 in total). Significantly more papers (42 in total) predicted global warming (Peterson 2008, link above). The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2."

No new ice age on the time horizon that we need concern ourselves with.

The extreme negative AO event might be a good theory. However, if the change becomes semi-permanent, I think we will have to look elsewhere for a trigger. I doubt the AO can cause a long-term PDO flip, especially since the negative PDO phase in 2010 and 2011 remained robust despite almost as extreme of a negative AO in those winters, and for longer periods of time.

Im sure there's more going on. Conditions in one area are the result of the conditions in all the other areas combined. Everything influences everything else in some way or another, the important part is finding the relative strength or significance of the influence.

With that said, I'd say a near-record negative AO likely has a pretty strong influence.

I have told this story a few times in past years; I was at an Orlando hotel in August for a Conference a few years ago when a typical afternoon t-storm spun up. Was in pool lounge having a drink and some German tourists, who ran in from the pool area as the winds and boomers hit, were asking me whether it was a hurricane..........The Father even looked like one of the guitarists from the Scorpions ("Rock You Like a Hurricane")............ :)

Oh, the poor german tourists in Florida, lol. As much as I've read they are often the target of some local humour. But they may deserve it in some way as I can imagine the behaviour of my travelling country fellowmen.