Michigan's Presidential Primary Sweepstakes

Three days ago, it seemed that Michigan’s presidential primary would be regarded as kind of a sleepy afterthought. Mitt Romney’s campaign was once again relentlessly sailing on, after having demolished Newt Gingrich in Florida.

Since this was Romney’s birthplace, and had voted for him enthusiastically four years ago, he seemed unlikely to be seriously challenged here. Nor was he apt to get much momentum out of victory in a state where his father was an iconic governor years ago.

But that all changed this week, when Romney suffered a drubbing at the hands of Rick Santorum, of all people, losing a primary in Missouri and caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, all on the same day. Suddenly, it seemed there might be a real race again.

That was followed yesterday by signs of an actual, if last-minute, Santorum organization being established in the state. Up to now, his Michigan campaign has consisted of a Facebook page.

If Santorum were to win here, it would do Romney immense damage. The mere thought that he might be threatened in his home state by a candidate the vast majority of the voters had never heard two months ago is humiliating enough.

And, Santorum, as well as Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, know they don’t have to really win here to win here. They just have to do something called “beating the expectations game.” A real win for any of them would be finishing a credible second.

Yet the odds still heavily favor Romney being the nominee. He has worked longer, has much more money, and has seasoned campaign organizations on the ground virtually everywhere.

None of his opponents do, and when examined closely, none actually seem like credible nominees. Santorum is a former senator who was turned out of office by Pennsylvania voters in a stunning landslide. On social issues, he is far to the right of even most in his own party -- though shock waves went through his supporters when it was revealed last week that his wife formerly lived with an abortion provider forty years her senior. Newt Gingrich hasn’t held office in more than a decade and is an admitted adulterer with two bitter ex-wives. Ron Paul is a former libertarian who owns property jointly with the John Birch society and thinks most of modern government is unconstitutional.

These are not people one can imagine winning a general election. Romney is, and the GOP establishment knows it.

His biggest problem seems to be that even in his home state, people find him hard to warm up to. Republicans have another ominous problem. With the economy down and President Obama’s policies controversial, turnout in GOP primaries and caucuses should be soaring. It’s not. Fewer people are voting than four years ago. In Missouri, Santorum won the primary by a landslide -- but he got fewer than ten percent of the number of votes Obama got there in November two thousand eight. And Obama lost Missouri.

People are not turned on by these candidates, even though no campaign has been as much in our faces before.

Things are still relatively early, however, and for the next nineteen days, our state should be seeing a lot of these candidates.

Although, no delegates were assigned, Santorum has something else: momentum. “Together, the three states voting Tuesday will eventually award 128 delegates. But Missouri was a ‘beauty contest’ with no delegates at stake, while Minnesota and Colorado were nonbinding events with delegates to be chosen this spring. At stake Tuesday night was the prestige of winning. And Santorum nailed down three upsets to restore an air of viability to his candidacy,” the Washington Post explains. The Post continues:

Santorum’s wins across the Midwest Tuesday could bestow new legitimacy on his insurgent efforts and boost his fundraising in the critical period before nextmonth’s major contests. Santorum now appears to pose a more serious threat not only to Romney, but also to Gingrich, who had been positioning himself as the logical alternative to Romney.

The Michigan Democratic Party is changing course and allowing Democrats to vote in the Feb. 28 presidential primary and also participate in the May caucus. The change was announced Saturday. Party Chairman Mark Brewer says there's no need to have President Barack Obama's name on the primary ballot, but the secretary of state insists it must be there under Michigan law.

On Fridays, Rick Pluta, Lansing Bureau Chief for the Michigan Public Radio Network, and I have been taking a look at state politics, we’ve been trying to dig a little deeper beneath the week's political news. And, it sure seemed like one story, in particular, was making all the headlines this week. Headlines like, “Romney Rebounds with Victory in Florida,” and, “Where Has the Newt-Mentum Gone?”

Just like Star Wars… (Well, sort of)

This week’s 2012 GOP Presidential primary storyline got us thinking about that classic scene from Stars Wars: Episode VI – Return of the Jedi where Princess Leia and Han Solo have been captured by Jabba the Hutt and Luke Skywalker tries to come to their rescue. Things don’t go as planned and Luke ends up captured, too. Trying to gauge the severity of the situation Han asks Luke, “How are we doing?” Luke answers, “The same as always.” Han, with his characteristically dry sense of humor, responds, “that bad, huh?”

“Han Solo, Luke Skywalker and crew sort of made us think of Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, coming into the Michigan primary – which is now just about three weeks away – and Gingrich almost seems to be in a position of ‘now, I’ve got them exactly where I want them.’ You know, he’s an underdog, the odds are stacked against him… what Gingrich, Santorum and Paul all seem to be fighting is this aura of inevitability that is surrounding Romney,” Pluta explains.

Okay, so maybe it’s not an exact parallel but Pluta and I, at least, had a reason to watch some scenes from Star Wars. (And, just as a side note, there’s quite a bit in the Star Wars movies that can be compared to American politics. But, that’s a whole different story for a whole different time).

“A couple of weeks is a long time in American Politics.” – Peter Jennings

That well-known saying from Peter Jennings is something I always try to remember as I’m listening to or reading the latest from the political pundits. Yes, Romney surely seems to have the “Big-Mo” (the all-important “momentum” that Pluta and I have discussed before) coming out of Florida, but, let’s play Devil’s Advocate for a minute, shall we? Pluta explains that, contrary to conventional wisdom, there are some reasons that Romney could have a difficult time winning the Michigan primary: