Thursday, March 10, 2016

Cummings as the Vice Presidential Nominee

#2

Like all of you, I read theEsquire article promoting Congressman Elijah Cummings (D- MD) as a
potential Democratic Vice Presidential candidate in 2016.

I have commended Representative Cummings for his leadership
during the recent crisis in Baltimore. He really showed his mettle.That said…Vice President? His selection
wouldn’t be a bad choice, but I am not certain he would be a top 20 pick, maybe
top 50.

He checks some boxes.He is a capable legislator, a better-than-average Member of Congress. I
am sincerely not trying to gosh-darn him with faint praise.Really.He is sufficiently progressive for most Democrats.He would hold his own on the debate stage
against whomever the Republicans dredged up, which is not a trivial
matter.He would be qualified to become
President, which is a far more significant measure. That said, I am not
convinced he is the best option from Maryland, much less all of the other
states in the Union.

Of course much depends on several unsettled factors.The identity of the Democratic nominee is not
yet known.Yes, I have done the math
just like you have.I know Secretary Hillary
Clinton is well poised to become the presumptive nominee in the near
future.But what if Senator Bernie Sanders
becomes the nominee? Or what if a political earthquake occurs and a third
person receives the Democratic nomination this summer?The article assumes Clinton, but it’s not a
done deal…not yet.

Congressman Cummings might match up better for Senator
Sanders, although I think Bernie, if I may be familiar, and perhaps a majority
of the Democratic Party might prefer a woman as a running mate…with Senator Klobuchar,
Senator Gillibrand, or Hillary Clinton herself being interesting choices.

Part of my issue with Cummings, frankly, is his age.With the two most likely Democratic nominees
being rather mature citizens from a certain generation, I would prefer a bit of
youth with the #2 pick.Yes, both
Clinton and Sanders seem indefatigable, but we have all seen the age
progression that occurs.POTUS years are
not the same as non-POTUS years.I don’t
think it is a bad idea to have someone in their 40s or 50s holding down the VP
slot.I like Senator Elizabeth Warren
and Senator Sherrod Brown, but they are in the same age range as Cummings.

Moreover, despite the recent GOP successes in our corner of
the universe, Maryland is not a swing state.Electorally, there is little to be gained by such a choice.Thus, while former Governor Martin O’Malley
would be a qualified selection, he doesn’t help with the math to 270 electoral
votes.The same logic applies for
Secretary Tom Perez, who like O’Malley, I would probably pick ahead of
Cummings.

So who then?I would short
list Secretary Julian Castro.His
presence would likely not flip Texas, not in 2016, but I believe that that
state will realign and become more competitive in the not-too-distant future.Clinton – Castro would be a heck of a good
ticket.The case for Castro is simply more
compelling than the case for Cummings. I may expand on this later.

And of course there is the double-down philosophy.Let’s see who did that in recent history, oh
yes, Bill Clinton with Al Gore in 1992.Two modern (for the time), accomplished Southern Baby Boomers.Clinton-Klobuchar would reflect a similar
line of thinking; Clinton-Gillibrand might be trickier, given the electoral
issues related to residency.Of course
the NY-NY angle probably doesn’t help Clinton, unless Trump is 1) the nominee
and 2) greatly expands the playing field…in which case Clinton has much bigger
problems.Klobuchar would definitely
offer more upside than Cummings from an electoral perspective.

It’s too bad that Kamala Harris isn’t a Senator yet,
although if California is competitive in 2016, see the note on Gillibrand.

Personally, I think Senator Cory Booker and Governor Deval
Patrick would be better choices than Cummings.Both are statewide office-holders, NJ is more of a swing state than MA
or MD.And yes, Patrick turns 60 this
year, but he is a youthful almost 60.

While not a fan of dynasties, I do admit that a Clinton –
Obama (Michelle) ticket would be instant-awesome-in-a-can.

In short, I know those of us in the Free State admire
Congressman Cummings. I do.Many of us
think he should have run for the Senate this year.I did.Would I be OK with him as the Democratic Vice Presidential choice?I would.

But I think there are better options, from both the
political and governing points-of-view, and I think the Democrats need the
strongest ticket possible to win this November.Hopefully by a wide enough margin, with sufficient coat-tails, to allow
Congressman Cummings to become Chairman Cummings.

2 comments:

As with Joe Lieberman, I'd never vote for a ticket with Cory Booker on it.http://www.blackagendareport.com/content/cory-booker-hits-senate-just-time-vote-private-school-vouchers

Of course, Maryland is such a blue or Democratic state in presidential elections that it wouldn't matter how I voted. There were other reasons why the Gore-Lieberman ticket lost (and that can be changed if President Obama plays his hand right on a Supreme Court nominee). If Clinton is the Democratic presidential nominee, she'll have a chance to see who the Republican nominee selects for a running mate. If it's Rubio or some other Hispanic, I think Julian Castro's selection by Clinton is a virtual sure thing. Whatever is the Republican ticket, I'd like to see Castro on the Democratic one anyway. He showed he was a great speechmaker at the 2012 Convention. I like Deval Patrick, another great speechmaker from the last Convention and, unlike Elizabeth Warren, he'd probably have nothing better to do than hold down the waiting post that is the vice presidency. But I don't think anyone from a solid blue state, like Massachusetts or Maryland, is going to be chosen.