Comments

I agree, MoreShoot. It will be very interesting to see if Babcock chooses Smith or Xavier. It’s going to send a big message potentially if Oullet is the choice. Again, I think Smith is on the trading block so Wings might play him as to not send the alarm that they aren’t high on him.

George, were you as excited as I was with Xavier’s play last night? Dude has skills. I know it was only one game, but he already has a better attitude than Smith. He knows his role, but at the same time, he understands the Red Wings’ way. And on top of all of that, he showed tremendous poise in his first NHL game all while facing the #1 team in the NHL. I’m really pumped for his future.

Xavier has one weakness that is worrisome: he can get caught transitioning from skating forward to skating backward, and blown by in that instance. He’s got to work on that and it’s not going to be fixed quickly.

Otherwise, he was stellar as far as I’m concerned. He’s definitely naturally an, “I need to make the safe play”-instinct-showing defenseman, and that’s huge, because Smith—Gord love him—is proving how incredibly difficult that acceptance of “doing less” to “make more happen” is to teach to the puck-rushers of the world.

What I saw with XO was poise: he neither rushes decisions nor seems to have trouble making them.

This as opposed to Smith.

Redmond had a nice illustration last night of BS struggling to make the easy play: He’s wheeling out of the corner withe a checker behind and another up the bords and Pav in the circle between calling for the puck ... But Smith just keeps skating into the trap and creates the TO. I want him to skate more when he’s up ice, but why can’t he put a collar on it in those situations I don’t know.

I agree that Ouellet looks insanely poised out there and agree that his upside is huge. Can’t wait to see him mature.

But I still give Brendan Smith more slack than the rest of you. I know it’s rough to watch and he still needs to learn many more lessons the hard way and let’s face it, he’s been a late bloomer for awhile now in the maturity dept. But he’s only 24 and I still see incredible potential in him. His pure skill is really apparent, especially on the offensive side. He definitely should have had a goal last night and seems to be becoming more and more of a threat offensively every night. His moves at the blue line are really dangerous (unfortunately for both teams still). I realize this offensive pressure comes at a price, but I don’t think it’s so much due to his inability to play good D but rather his poor decision making. It’s the same decision making that leads to those turnovers in our zone on breakouts. It’s not like he’s a bad passer. He’s actually an incredible passer which is why he tries that stuff so much in the first place. He just needs to learn how to pick his moments.

But the fact is we’ve also seen Kindl, Ericsson and even Kronner to an extent go through some similar growing pains. Kronner’s lessons were a bit different in that he had to learn how to not be so vulnerable to the injuries that plagued his first few years on the Wings. But Ericsson and Kindl had very similar growth curves to Smith. They showed huge glimpses of potential in small doses and then fell into the trappings of bad judgement once given nightly responsibilities, which led to mental funks, which led to being occasional healthy scratches and then eventually to all the bloggers and fans clamoring for their trades. And then something just CLICKED. Now both are mainstays on our top-4 and both seem to only be getting better and better. I don’t hear anyone sane calling for their trades now. In fact, I think most of us would agree that Ericsson needs a contract extension ASAP.

So everyone should just keep in mind that Big Rig is 29, Kindl is 26, and Brendan Smith is 24. And I actually think Smith has the raw skill to be the best of the three eventually, if and when it clicks. It’s obviously not a sure thing that it will click, but people mature at different times and at different rates (I mean DeKeyser basically went from undraftable to top 4 NHL d-man in one year). I think Smith NEEDS playing time. He needs experience. He needs to learn some things the hard way. He needs to learn how to intuitively see/feel the game at NHL speed which only comes with experience. I mean the dude has played only 54 NHL hockey games EVER. Barely over a half of one single season. And now people are calling for a trade. I wouldn’t bet my life on it or anything, but based on the team’s developmental track record, I think the Brendan Smith we see in two years is going to be light-years away from the Brendan Smith we are seeing now. And he still will only be 26 at that time. He has a long career ahead of him and I’m still pretty optimistic. It doesn’t hurt to know there’s some incredible talent starting to creep up behind him. It gives the team some insurance AND Smith some healthy fear for his job. Always a good motivational factor in pro sports. Anyway, my point is it’s still far too early to give up on him.

So now WIIM is saying Helm has setback with groin…. a trade is going to happen (my guess is Eaves) but they have to keep Helm on LTIR until it does. So a sore groin can buy another week or two…. and if my guess is correct that allows Eaves to prove himself game ready allowing the trade to happen.

Your post pretty much mirrors my thoughts, perfection except in a more focused readable way. I still feel it would help Smith (as evidenced by what I thought was a better game by him last night) to not be paired with Quincey. Those two just never seem to be on the same page.

well, I think it’s important to remember how we draft (though Ericsson was the last pick of the draft so I’d say he’s overachieved by just about any standard). For our late first rounders (like Kronner, Kindl, Smith… and now Sheahan and I’m going to just guess Mantha will follow suit), the Wings seem to take stabs at top-10 talent with some baggage, often maturity issues. I think it’s our strategy for restocking on the fly. We choose guys we KNOW will require some serious development, meaning I think there is a foregone understanding that these guys will take awhile to “come around”. I mean Mantha scored 50 goals and fell all the way to 20th because of maturity issues and questions over his willingness to go all out every night. But these are the kinds of issues that tend to suddenly disappear once you see firsthand how Pav and Z approach every day and once you have a family to support and once you just aren’t a kid anymore. I think Smith is still a kid and he acts like it. He will grow up over the next 3 or 4 years, that is for sure.

You aren’t going to get better and correct bad habits by sitting in the Press Box.

last quick point - while this is true and I agree, I also think occasional benchings are part of the process. Not only does it allow him to reflect, but I think there really is some learning that can be done watching the big picture from above. Not that he will ever get better spending ALL his time up there, but I think some occasional healthy scratches are probably a good thing at this point. Just Babs doing some big league coaching.

I think Smith is still a kid and he acts like it. He will grow up over the next 3 or 4 years, that is for sure.

Yeah, but he’s got to show it soon.

Meanwhile, I expect/hope to see Backman and Sproul soon. I wouldn’t mind seeing Ouellet or Almquist in place of Lashoff right now. I understand you need a guy with some size, but he’s not very mobile and just doesn’t know what to do with the puck it seems.

perfection - you make some really good points. I do have one thing that I want to bring up - the Wings’ Cup window is most likely to be open for a couple years as currently constituted. I don’t know if an extended development process for Smith (i.e., he comes into his prime at 27) fits the current window (i.e., Alfredsson probably gone by then).

I agree that Smith will be a really good defenseman in the future. But I have begun to believe he will be moved - this is for a couple reasons. First, I think his growth curve doesn’t put him in the timeline that the Wings have to win the Cup (the main stars are in their primes now). Second, I think he has a maturity problem and Babcock doesn’t take kindly to that - I think his on-ice mistakes are forgivable (from Babcock’s perspective) but that his ego and immaturity (i.e., comments to the extent that the mistakes aren’t his fault) are not. Third, the Wings want a top-pair defenseman. I am convinced that Holland and Babcock know this and are looking for trade targets and partners [imagine a package of Smith, Tatar and Samuelsson (due to the expiring deal and needing salary room) to a team outside the playoff picture who can move a top defenseman and retool].

Lastly, I think Smith is expendable with several good defensemen in our system - in addition to Ouellet, Almquist showed something, Sproul showed something, and I think Marchenko and Backman are also both well thought of.

Anyways, salient points about Smith. I do like him myself but I don’t think he is very valuable to the team this year that wants to win a Cup. If he is able to fast-track his development this year and make big strides a la Kindl last year, he could be valuable this year. But there’s more growth needed than just his on-ice game and I think that might be what prevents him from taking that big of a step this year.

i honestly wouldn’t even pretend that such a thing existed if not for the Alfie signing. that did in fact change things a bit, if only because that was his stated goal for signing on the Wings and he clearly only has one or two seasons left in him. He even said he wouldn’t have wanted to pressure Ottawa into trying to make a deadline deal whereas he basically expects the Wings to try and, while by no means does it mean a move will be made (I mean, who’s actually trying to rid themselves of a Norris candidate right before the playoffs? And if somehow they are.. THINK OF THE PRICE?!), but I imagine Kenny will perhaps think more about taking a stab because of Alfie.

so yeah, I guess you could call this a window. but this is also the Wings we are talking about. We are more of a machine than most teams. I think a lot of people thought our window would close with Stevie and then even more were SURE our window closed with Lids’ retirement, just as now there’s an assumption that we basically have until Pav’s next contract ends to win again. But again, if you look at the track record, we tend to aim for a perpetually half open window. Meaning, we go for cups WHILE developing kids like Smith precisely because in the post-Z/Dats era, we STILL intend on having a chance to win the cup every year.

It’s a tricky equation, but that’s why there’s not a professional team in sports that rebuilds on the fly like the Wings. I don’t doubt they will try to improve and with our stocked prospect cupboard, perhaps that means some trades, but I’m not sure you can really look at this as a window. Really, we just have to make the playoffs and then the cap/roster limitations become moot and we can simply ice the best squad… if that includes some kids, so be it. But even if Smith hasn’t scratched the surface of his potential by the playoffs, if he can just improve a bit to the “not hurting us” dept (which is basically where Lash is), I think he will be valuable to the team and we should have at least as good a shot as last year (and hopefully better since I feel like we have actually improved)

Also - just fyi. Sammy has NTC and will not be packaged in ANY deals. He is going to be dead weight for this entire season unless he waives the NTC. I think he would have been bought out if he wasn’t hurt. But his contract is up and he is likely gone anyway after this year.

Smith is in his age 24 season. Nicklas Kronwall’s age 24 season “lucked” into being the lockout year, and so he played a full season with the Griffs and put up excellent numbers there. Smith had 2.5 strong seasons in GR up through age 23.

In Kronwall’s first full season with the Wings, he had a +/- rating of 0. +/- has plenty of flaws, but as a very rough proxy for a quick discussion, I think it makes a point. Kronwall also had the benefit of playing alongside lots of very sound defensive veterans and was given the latitude to do a lot of pinching into the play and jumping into the rush, because he had skill for it.

Smith has sort of been put into the opposite situation. He’s been generally playing with either A) another young, inexperienced D, or B) one of the team’s less positionally sound defenders. Point being, would Brendan Smith look better if he were afforded an opportunity to play the offensive D role with Ericsson anchoring things out in front of Jimmah, etc.?

Defenders notoriously take longer to develop and learn what they can and cannot do with the speed of the NHL game. Kronwall used to get the yips in his own zone and get stuck inside the offensive blue line all the time… sounds a lot like Brendan Smith. We also know full well from seeing guys like Ericsson hit sophmore (and junior) slumps and then bounce back, and Kindl’s long development track culminating in what has been very, very good play for the last 50+ games, that this shit happens with D. Chris Pronger was 25 when he had his big breakout season… IMO he’s kind of the poster boy for what it takes to learn how to be a top level defender in the NHL.

Admittedly, the problem with Smith is that, yet again, the Wings find themselves “stuck” in this spot where they both have a team that is good right here and right now, with a chance to win playoff games, and an organization with young depth that you would like to see get chances to develop a little more and learn the NHL game. Keeping Smith out for Lashoff is probably the more consistent thing for the Wings, as they try to win now, but making sure Smith plays 60ish games this year is probably the better thing for the Wings in the coming seasons, and if it clicks for him at any point this year as it did for Kindl last, then when that click happens, the Wings are significantly better having his physical tools in the lineup than they are Lashoff’s.

For a real No. 1 it might cost more than that, and the pool is thin. In fact, I’d say the only potential partners are Nahsville (Weber) and Phoenix (Ekman-Larsson).

Posted by MoreShoot on 10/22/13 at 04:20 PM ET

Which could be true, but then presents a whole other set of problems: Weber’s cap hit for the next 12.8 years at $7.8/year is way long, and would take up about 12% of the team’s salary space, considering the current cap.

Ekman-Larson will be a stud for years to come, and I’d love to have him, but Phoenix won’t give him up. No way, no how.

Which could be true, but then presents a whole other set of problems: Weber’s cap hit for the next 12.8 years at $7.8/year is way long, and would take up about 12% of the team’s salary space, considering the current cap.

Yep. A burden. But—shit or get off the pot—if you want that alpha dude because it’s the difference, then deal with it.

If Kenny didn’t take a “stab” while Nick was playing in a Cup window… why would Kenny do it with a one year contract guy like Alfie? Not. Gonna. Happen.

Posted by
MOWingsfan19
from I really like our team on 10/22/13 at 03:41 PM ET

If Kenny didn’t take a “stab”

not sure you understand what a “stab” is. you realize trying to make a trade and failing is a stab right? if there’s one guy available and 25 teams making offers, the odds of landing the player are tiny to say the least. and while you may mock Kenny for not making an absurdly overpriced trade (hmmm… who would I rather have, Bowmeester or Mantha AND Tatar AND Mrazek?), the GM’s who do make those trades tend to get themselves fired year after year because desperate GM’s make desperate moves.

maybe instead of “stab” I should have said “kick some tires”. I think depending on where we’re at in the standings, Kenny MAY kick some tires a little harder than he has the last couple years. That doesn’t mean he’ll make a bad trade to appease the “anything is better than nothing” fans, but I think due to the combination of our playoff run last year, our move to the East, and Alfie’s signing ,this year is suddenly more of a window than anyone thought it might be.

but all of that aside, it’s amusing to me how in just a few seasons, Kenny has somehow earned this “perpetually inactive at the deadline” reputation. you have such short memories… Kenny made TONS of deadline deals for cup runs during Nick’s career. Year after year he did it - Cheli, Bert, Schneider, Stuie, etc. (and don’t forget about Cory Cross!!)

In fact, he made so many deadline deals over the years that our lack of prospects started to tie his hands in terms of continuing to trade away draft picks. We needed to start developing more kids so we could prepare for the next rebuild on the fly. So now all of the mid round picks we might have wasted on rentals like Brendan Morrow, we have used on guys like Mrazek, Jarnkrok, Pulkinnan, Sproul etc.

MOWingsfan - the Lidstrom argument is different - dude already won 4 Cups and also, the Wings did not have the infrastructure in 2010-2012 that they have now. Guys have developed in a big way - this makes a lot more good players potentially expendable. Tatar is expendable because they have Jurco who is a bigger and potentially better version (and Mantha, Pulkinnen and potentially other wingers on the way up). A guy like Smith has 3 guys right on his heels. Any of those guys can be expendable potentially.

Anyways, I think the Wings believed prior to last year that they would be in a tough spot and would need a few years (end of Zetterberg and Datsyuk’s primes) to get back. Instead, they found themselves a team one win away from a conference final and with several guys who took major steps. That’s why Alfredsson came here; that’s why Babcock was able to get Cleary back. If they didn’t truly believe this was a legitimate window, they wouldn’t have made some of these moves. Even signing Samuelsson before last year - that’s a move to fill a roster spot with reasonable production (he was probably pegged on line 2).

What a difference a year can make.

Anyways, Ekman-Larsson and Weber are for sure no. No chance. But what about a guy like Viktor Hedman? Christian Ehrhoff (not my first choice, for sure)? There are guys out there playing for teams that might not be brand names just yet but who might be better suited on a good team with good structure. Anybody on Philadelphia? What about Mark Staal? Could we pry Bogosian from Winnipeg for Smith, Tatar and a maybe another prospect and/or draft pick?

I have to plead ignorance on some of the Eastern Conference guys (since I am used to watching Western Conference teams). Are there any guys playing on any teams’ top pairings that could be moved? Are there any teams that need more scoring and could use another good d-man on the way up? Any teams who know they are a couple years away from being truly competitive for the Cup?

Anyways, I was screaming for Subban last year when he was available until late in the summer. That just kills me that they didn’t even give him a look….

Whoa now, just saying we aren’t going to do anything drastic this year. I didn’t say anything about Kenny mismanaging or being asleep at the wheel. No need to get’cher panties all bunched up.

Posted by
MOWingsfan19
from I really like our team on 10/22/13 at 05:01 PM ET

Posted by MOWingsfan19 from I really like our team on 10/22/13 at 06:01 PM ET

fair enough. you are probably right actually. I guess my hope is the whole “win it for Alfie” thing comes into play as we get to playoff time. And maybe Kenny gets swept up in it. I’ve sure heard he and Babs credit the “win it for Dallas Drake” thing for our last cup

Posted by VitoLambruski on 10/22/13 at 05:48 PM ET

i think you nailed it. we are further along post-lids than either Babs or Kenny expected we’d be. and I’m with you that Sammy was basically a transitional contract, a plug once Parise picked Minny. and now that contract is like a friggin ball and chain… partly because Sammy has been either hurt or not providing close to “reasonable” production and partly because of the push from below and the surprise addition of Alfie.

I’m with you that part of the benefit of a deep well of prospects is that you can actually swing a big deal in theory, but the problem is that it is SO incredibly difficult to pry away a franchise player or even sign one for a fair deal on the market as guys are signing lifetime contracts with the team that drafted them more and more frequently. This means as we near the end of Pav and Z’s careers, the ONLY realistic way for us to rebuild on the fly yet again is if one or two of Nyquist, Tatar, Jarnkrok, Sheahan, Mantha, etc. grow up to be dominant players. Like all stars. Like maybe even a HOFamer or two. Otherwise we have to tank and get a lottery pick which nobody wants.

It’s by no means out of the question that one or more of those guys are in fact future superstars but you just kind of don’t really know with these late bloomer types of underdeveloped prospects we snag. You’d hate to trade away the one guy who does become the next Zetterberg for a Christian Erhoff, especially when I think the Wings feel they have future defensive superstars coming up pretty soon - guys they will want to sign to lifetime contracts in a few years. It’s just a pretty risky roll of the dice. I sure get the temptation to do it… if the right guy is in play.

And anytime I start to think Tatar might be the guy to risk trading away, I remember he’s currently 22 years old. He is a kid. Maybe not a teenager, but far closer to one than to a 28 year old in their prime. Who knows how good he can get? He sure looks pretty strong out there already.

I’ll be the first to admit that all my staffing suggestions should be taken with a block of salt. I was ready to gut Ericsson three years ago, and ready to break his legs two years ago. The fact he’s still not Lidstrom makes me want to throw a wrench at his head. I’m a fan, not a coach or a GM. Every day that doesn’t lead directly to another parade down Woodward makes me irritated. Smith is in the doghouse until he’s a hall of famer. Is it rational? Hell no. But I’m a fan, not a rational observer.

That’s one of the most rational “irrational” comments I’ve ever seen here at KK.

I disagree with a lot of things you say, red, but that’s sure as hell not one of them. In particular, I think this line is almost MasterChiefesque… “Smith is in the doghouse until he’s a hall of famer.”

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