98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-exThe remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago todayOn September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."

Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Quoting ElConando:An upward pulse should be coming soon if memory serves. In about a week or two?

Yep,in the next 14 days.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:As I have mentioned before, even in an Enso year, we had two major hurricanes this season (Bill and Dennis)which were notable in terms of their size/power but were lucky that they did not directly impact a land area at their peak.....Steering currents have been favorable for us but it is not a "dull" season by any means......No landfall by two major storms has been the blessing so far this season.

As I have mentioned before, even in an Enso year, we had two major hurricanes this season (Bill and Dennis)which were notable in terms of their size/power but were lucky that they did not directly impact a land area at their peak.....Steering currents have been favorable for us but it is not a "dull" season by any means......No landfall by two major storms has been the blessing so far this season.

Quoting gatagus07:Looks like the month of Sept ....peak of the season....will be one of the most quiet in many of years....great news for everyone....not quite ready to call this season over yet.....but getting close.....

I think you would be hard pressed to find many Septembers with only a weak TS and one Hurricane, major yes but, only one. Still a little over a week to go though, don't want to jinx it.

Looks like the month of Sept ....peak of the season....will be one of the most quiet in many of years....great news for everyone....not quite ready to call this season over yet.....but getting close.....

Good Morning Folks......The "morning crew", and Ike is included, likes it here in the am where it is more quiet, reasoned, and less trollish than in the PM.......You're the one who needs to take the break.

Yep.

Just because Ike and others who are similarly minded aren't calling for a Cat 4 hurricane every week, doesn't make their opinion any less valid.

Why dont you be like others and be more constructive. Season's over, season's dead, snoozer, etc. and every morning you are here complaining about it. Geesuz. If the season so quiet, promise me you wont come back until next June.

Good Morning Folks......The "morning crew", and Ike is included, likes it here in the am where it is more quiet, reasoned, and less trollish than in the PM.......You're the one who needs to take the break.

It appears to me that the tropical Atlantic area is done with as far as tropical cyclones which could affect the U.S. If the U.S. is affected for the remainder of this season, any tropical cyclone will have to come from the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and it will have to come before any early-season strong cold front sweeps through the entire Gulf.

Current Joe Bastardi. Make sure you follow the link to the TIMESONLINE. Its near the bottom of the column.

MONDAY 1 AM I DONT RECCALL SEEING THIS EVER ON THIS DATE.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

Not one area under investigation in the northern hemisphere on Sept 21 amazing.

ciao for now ******

SUNDAY 10PM

WEST COAST HEAT, TEXAS FLOODS.... LOOK OUT, THE GLOBAL WARMING BLAMERS COULD BE OUT IN FORCE THIS WEEK.

If you are going to Texas two step you will need your waders as alot of water will be coming down in the area hit hard by drought in the summer. But this is part and parcel of a reversal that started in the mid summer and was subtle at first, but has picked up steam as the summer faded into fall. Texas is a whole nother country as the ad says, and when it comes to whether, the average there is anything but normal. Its a product of wild swings and so it is, and so it will always be. But after watching global warming get the blame for floods in Iowa last year and for every wildfire that gets started in California, this could be a big field day of the heat- blamers since another shot of hot is coming to the west coast and flooding will be hitting Texas again.

Of course the counter weight to all this is perhaps the quietest Sep 21 of modern times globally in the tropics. The entire northern hemisphere may be void of any named systems. Truly astounding yet now so, since the overall cooling that is taking place in an up down fashion is probably a result of larger scale events going on. I suspect the mean humidity over the tropics have dropped and since the temps over the tropics have not warmed as per the global warming theory, it can mean only one thing... when convection gets into the crucial levels for warming... the increase in moisture in a drier than normal field means lower wet bulbs. Bingo front row, the worldwide cap on the tropics and with it, the destruction of the global warming theory on increased tropical activity. It really is interesting to watch how these sacred cows get slayed, for within 3 years of the release of Al Gores movie touting global warming as a reason for increased hurricane activity ( nonsense as the entire globe has always been cyclical as can readily be seen in Ryan Maues charts) we are at record low levels and apparently going lower. I cant recall it being this quiet at this time of the year.

But just a warning... alot of weather is on the table this week, Texas rains, West coast heat... and the blame game could start anew.

And of course one has to wonder if what we are seeing in England will happen here as people go off the deep end to counter what they believe is going on. What is going on, well read this little ditty:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6832964.ece

Meanwhile, the conference in Copenhagen is approaching. The CFS looks colder each day with the euro winter... Another sacred cow may be moooooving to the slaughter.

Moisture associated with the remains of Hurricane Fred continues to generate some showers approximately 250 miles east-southeast of Hatteras, N.C. This feature will continue to encounter southeasterly wind shear as it travels west, so no tropical development is expected. However, the feature will spread a few showers and thunderstorms into the coastal Carolinas tonight, with some wet weather reaching the Piedmont of the state on Tuesday. The pressure gradient between this wave and high pressure off the Northeast coast will also create a broad onshore flow into the Carolinas, which combined with astronomically high tides and an east-southeasterly swell will create rough surf and a heightened risk for rip currents.

Elsewhere, another tropical wave is located about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. This feature is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This feature is expected to take a more northwesterly path over the next two or three days. An analysis of wind shear over the Atlantic shows the storm moving into a zone of strong westerlies aloft, so no development is expected from this system.

A tropical wave that emerged off the African coast over the weekend has dissipated due to cool waters and hostile wind shear. Another weak wave is analyzed across Cuba and the southern Bahamas, with no other features of note in the Atlantic Basin.

THE REMNANT LOW OF TC FRED IS NEAR 30N72W AND HAS WEAKENED TO 1017 MB. THE MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIED THIS LOW HAS ADVECTED NE WITH THE LOW AND IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED NEAR 31N78W. EXPECT THIS LOW TO FILL AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW TO ALONG 77W-78W LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN SEGMENT CONTINUING NW TO THE GA/SC COAST WED. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL TUE TO ALONG THE SE FL COAST AT SUNSET TUE.

GULF OF MEXICO...A NE TO SW RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE RETRACTS NE ALLOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AROUND SUNSET TUE AND JUST OFFSHORE EARLY WED. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IMMEDIATELY OVER THE NW WATERS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSSTHE N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS...PERHAPS POKING JUST OFFSHORE THE MS DELTA BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THU INTO FRI. MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT ABOUT 10 KT. IN THE MEANTIME THE REMNANT TROUGH OF TC FRED WILL SPLIT WITH THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF TROUGH REACHING THE SE FL COAST AND STRAITS OF FL AROUND SUNSET TUE... AND MOVING W OVER THE SE GULF WATERS WED...BECOMING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SEEMS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE FORMALLY ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT TO N OVER THE ATLC THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL IS ALREADY BACKED FROM E TO NE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH NEARLY 400 NM TO THE E. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...HIGH PRES FROM THE N WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS...AND COMBINED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT W OF THE TROUGH ALONG 22N TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT ON FRI.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:Water vapor imagery of Fred suggests an improving environment overhead. Almost all of the deep convection to his west has subsided or moved north of his latitude. This is what has been contributing to a good deal of the shear.

However, judging from his size, I think we should reclassify Fred as a tornado instead, with yet another amazing curtain call.

Ok, Ok, I didn't mean to call you small. I'm apologizing as I speak. You're big Fred, you're bigger than a tornado. ;)

Although it's tilted to the southeast, it appears as if the dry air to the immediate west is almost gobbled up, and movement continues to the WNW. If it strengthens enough, it could stall out, but they're betting it won't, which seems reasonable given the current shear.

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT N TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT WILL DRIFT W AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Hmmmm? May be nothing but the blob at 85 west is the top of the trough. It was spinning. Don't know about at what level the spin was. But it spun up out of absolutely nothing. Never seen that before. Maybe something to watch anyway. If it's still there after black out. Lol.:)

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT N TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT WILL DRIFT W AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Hmmmm? May be nothing but the blob at 85 west is the top of the trough. It was spinning. Don't know about at what level the spin was. But it spun up out of absolutely nothing. Never seen that before. Maybe something to watch anyway. If it's still there after black out. Lol.:)