The Case of the Disappearing Clutch

Mudflappin: All the Yosemite-Samming in the world can't improve Peavy's luck. (Brian Kersey/GI)

[Updated
through games of September 4.]

Half and
Half

The White Sox arrived back home after being driven out of Detroit
by pitchforks and torches (although not quite as horrifyingly
as a year earlier) with one of the sweetest salves available, a series vs.
the Minnesota Twins.

Hectored: It took someone outside the rotation to snap the Sox out of their sorry clutch streak. (Brian Kersey/GI)

Still, in a series that begged sweep, the White Sox could only
split the first two games. And it was a newcomer thrown into the morass of
awful clutch starts, Hector Santiago, who righted the rotation and put the
South Siders back up a game on those bully Bengals.

Santiago’s 4-2 win on Sept. 3 was a tidy and efficient five
innings, restoring calm after the Motor City storm. He provided the first
clutch quality start in three weeks with the effort; hopefully manager Robin
Ventura’s pregame proclamation that Santiago would be heading back to the
bullpen and ceding his next start on Sunday to Dylan Axelrod has been
reconsidered (the White Sox are listing “TBA” at the moment).

Unfortunately, the slumping Jose Quintana gave any momentum right
away in Tuesday’s game, beginning a chain of pummeling that left outfielder
Dewayne Wise finishing up the game. His game score of 16 was eight points lower
than the previous-worst clutch start, Francisco Liriano’s no-decision in a 9-7
loss to the Oakland A’s on August 11.

So the average game score in two eminently winnable, clutch games
against the Twins was 38. Yikes.

Jaked Up

Jake Peavy, is well-admired as a fighter. He’s the kind of hurler
who’s seized a de facto captaincy among pitchers with his vocal leadership,
frank talk, and, at least in the first half of the season, a willingness to shoulder the burden
of a young starting staff hopscotching through the minefield of major
league hitters.

A reputation of not being too strong in the clutch has dogged Peavy
in his career. And judging by won-loss record, as easy as it is to root for a
fella willing to cuss seemingly on alternating pitches of a big game, he has
faltered when the chips are down.

But the following study may get Peavy off the hook.

While the “clutchosity” of a pitcher can be measured in a number
of ways, looking at the leverage he faces in games is a thumbnail spot to
start. But given that a starter, in particular, will often create the very high
leverage he is then challenged to pitch out of (with, say, a hit or a walk),
leverage index alone isn’t a square measure.

In the 135 White Sox games of 2012, there have been 53 “clutch”
starts so far. That includes every game past April where the White Sox found
themselves within a game of first place, heading north or south. It also
includes the six interleague games with the Cubbies, which everyone admits
count a mere game in the standing but much more given the fan interest. Any
game of 40,000-plus fans packs with it a playoff atmosphere, so such games are
included as well.

Pitcher

Clutch
GS

White
Sox Record

Pitcher
Record (W-L-ND)

Average
Game Score (Avg=50)

Average
Leverage

John Danks

2

1-1

1-1-0

62.0

0.84

Jake Peavy

12

5-7

3-6-3

57.4

0.94

Gavin Floyd

10

5-5

3-4-3

50.4

0.94

Philip Humber

6

5-1

4-1-1

56.8

1.03

Chris Sale

9

6-3

6-2-1

63.7

0.92

Jose Quintana

8

5-3

2-2-4

51.3

1.08

Zach Stewart

1

0-1

0-1-0

28.0

0.61

Dylan Axelrod

2

1-1

0-0-2

61.0

1.09

Franciso Liriano

2

0-2

0-1-1

32.0

1.15

Hector Santiago

1

1-0

1-0-0

60.0

1.10

Totals/Avg

53

29-24

20-20-14

55.0

0.98

A game
score of 50 or better is considered a quality start. “High pressure” leverage
is greater than 1.00.

Humber’s showing here is somewhat surprising, as is Axelrod’s, in
an admittedly small sample. But how pathetic is Peavy’s record, 3-6 with three
no-decisions, while Floyd and his average game score thisclose to falling short
of a quality start sits at 3-4 with three no-decisions. Even Quintana has
mustered a .500 record (and the White Sox a winning one) in spite of an average
clutch game score falling dangerously near the minimum for a quality start.

The selection of such superclutch games is somewhat arbitrary, but
are based on some fairly standard guidelines. Counting double-clutch games
twice—remember, this is simply a look at clutch performance so creating “fake”
stats is of lessened consequence—here’s how the White Sox starters morph.

Pitcher

Clutch
GS

White
Sox Record

Pitcher
Record

Average
Game Score

Average
Leverage

John Danks

3

1-2

1-2-0

59.3

0.85

Jake Peavy

16

6-10

4-9-3

58.2

0.92

Gavin Floyd

11

6-5

4-4-3

52.0

0.94

Philip Humber

7

6-1

5-1-1

53.7

1.10

Chris Sale

13

8-5

8-4-1

59.9

0.93

Jose Quintana

9

6-3

3-2-4

50.9

1.09

Zach Stewart

2

0-2

0-2-0

28.0

0.61

Dylan Axelrod

2

1-1

0-0-2

61.0

1.09

Francisco Liriano

3

0-3

0-2-1

34.7

1.09

Hector Santiago

2

2-0

2-0-0

60.0

1.10

Totals

68

36-32

27-26-15

In superclutch games, Peavy’s game score has been better than his overall
average, while Sale’s has been lower.

Here’s something a little scary, though. Check out the first- and
second-half splits per clutch starts.

Season

Clutch
GS

White
Sox Record

Pitcher
Record

Average
Game Score

Average
Leverage

First Half

35

22-13

15-10-10

59.3

0.94

Second Half

18

7-11

5-9-4

46.7

1.04

QS AWOL: Sale's Aug. 12 gem is the South Siders' the only clutch quality start out of the rotation in nearly a month. (Dennis Wierbicki/USP)

While the White Sox were stellar in clutch starts in the first half—at one time, the team won 10 straight clutch games in May and June—that success hasn't been sustained. And with as many as 27 more clutch games this month, the significant faltering from every White Sox starter in clutch games is very worrisome.Just seven of 18 clutch starts achieved a score of more than 50, and there have been just two clutch quality starts in the last eight opportunities). Sale's win nearly on August 12 vs. the Oakland A's remains the regular rotation's only clutch quality start in nearly a month.

It's not the roof caving in at Comerica that's creating such a huge challenge for the White Sox, it's the faltering of their core starters. It's going to be a massive challenge to the rotation to regroup and muster a finishing kick as the Dog Days start howling.Given that starting pitching has been the best aspect of this White Sox team outside of an uncanny ability to tap out clutch RBI, this shift from cool to crazed by the starters in the clutch should make any White Sox fan plenty edgy.

About Poetry in Pros

Brett most recently logged a couple of beats at CSNChicago, first following the Blackhawks and covering their first Stanley Cup win in 49 years, then shifting to the South Side and the White Sox.

His sportswriting career began right before the turn of the century, first as an editor for Basketball News and later editing Basketball Digest and Bowling Digest. He has written for Baseball Digest and MLB Trade Rumors, as well as the Chicago White Sox and MLB World Series programs, as well as Slam, Hoop, Inside Stuff, Courtside, Rinkside, and numerous NBA game programs. He has been featured in ESPN the Magazine, the Chicago Sun-Times, the Baltimore Sun and Crain's Chicago Business, and on Comcast Sports Net, NBA-TV, NHL.com, MLB.com, WLS-TV, WGN-TV and the BBC. He's also written features for the NBA Finals and NBA All-Star Game programs.

Brett is the author of the essential baseball reference work 'The Wit and Wisdom of Ozzie Guillen.' When Ozzie first saw the book, on Opening Night 2006, he cracked wise to those in his manager's office, asking, "What's wisdom?" To which owner Jerry Reinsdorf replied, "Don't worry, Ozzie. You don't have any."

A lifelong Chicago sports fan, the first game Brett attended was on Dec. 4, 1976, watching the Bulls snap a (still) franchise-record 13-game losing streak and setting in motion the playoff run that would come to be defined as the Miracle on Madison. At Brett's first White Sox game on June 4, 1977, Richie Zisk of the South Side Hit Men homered over the roof at Comiskey Park at a time when the feat was as rare as a no-hitter. Brett's first Chicago Bears game was on Oct. 7, 1984, when Walter Payton broke the all-time NFL career rushing mark.

More than anything, however, Brett is a baseball and a White Sox fan, having seen hundreds of games over his lifetime, including a walk-off grand slam by Carlos Lee to defeat the Cubbies, the infamous Michael Barrett sucker-punch on A.J. Pierzynski, a then-season record home run by Oscar Gamble in 1977, Bobby Thigpen's 50th season save in 1990, and the classic Blackout tiebreaker win over the Twins in 2008. There have been many pilgrimages to see the team, including a September 1990 drive up from Texas to see a final series at Comiskey Park, an April 1991 flight to watch the otherwise-unmentionable first game at the then-New Comiskey Park, outrunning a snowstorm to see the White Sox be whitewashed in a late September game at Kauffman Stadium, and a jaunt down to the Hovering Sombrero in 2005 to catch the club take on the Tampa Bay Rays.

His highlight as a fan is, of course, witnessing the entire home run of 2005 White Sox playoff victories, including the two extraordinary wins over the Houston Astros at USCF that spurred a World Series sweep. More recently, he took in Mark Buehrle's perfect game in 2009, during which Brett made the boldest prediction imaginable—not of an eventual perfect game, but a Josh Fields grand slam! Brett has watched games in every major league city.

Brett graduated from Texas Christian University with a Journalism and English degree and came thisclose to finishing his English master's at Kansas State University while teaching composition to disinterested agribusiness majors. He's won a number of writing awards in areas as varied as poetry, fiction, features, news reporting and opinion writing. Brett lives in Florida with his incomparable wife, Angelique.

Poetry in Pros Trivia

Now that you know a little bit about Poetry in Pros writer Brett Ballantini, see how you score below. True or false, Brett:

Believes that the ABA saved professional basketball.

Borrowed the title of the first draft of his master's thesis from a Camper Van Beethoven song.

Co-founded and played in a band called Ethnocentric Republicans, who once shared a bill with 15-minutes-of-fame grunge rockers The Toadies.

Considers nachos piled high with jalapenos as his go-to concession food.

Gave a Crunch bar to then-Nestle spokesman Shaquille O'Neal before their first interview together in Milwaukee. Later saw an empty Crunch bar wrapper in Shaq's locker.

Gave three photographs from his personal collection to the Chicago Bulls for their "walk of fame" leading to the locker room at the United Center.

Had four front teeth.

Has appeared in one movie, in which he was murdered when Albert Einstein slammed his head in a door.

Has appeared on the cover of a magazine with a circulation of 100,000. As Santa Claus. Bowling.

Has attended just three games in Wrigley Field as a fan. One was to see the Chicago Sting.

Has been a vegetarian for 30 years.

Has been doused by Bill Veeck's outfield shower in two different decades, in two different White Sox parks.

Hasn't cried over a game since Tito Landrum crushed that homer off of Britt Burns in October 1983.

Has worked for at least seven publications that are no longer in business.

Kissed the Minnie Minoso statue in the outfield concourse at Sox Park on the cheek as a good-luck gesture before Game 1 of the 2005 World Series.

Caught a foul ball while covering a preseason game from the roof of Tempe Diablo Stadium. On his birthday.

To Wit:

"When I build a fire under a person, I do not do it merely because of the enjoyment I get out of seeing him fry, but because he is worth the trouble. It is then a compliment, a distinction; let him give thanks and keep quiet. I do not fry the small, the commonplace, the unworthy."