“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the lowest level since February 2008, the Labor Department said.”

BUT WAIT!!! Didn’t they say that we were “staying on a downward drift”?? Let me think about this, two weeks ago THEY said we were at 348,000, then we were at 363,000, and last week we went down for ONE WHOLE WEEK to 357,000, that is a “downward drift”?? Are you serious??

Now , the first sentence:

“The number of Americans lining up for new jobless benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly four years last week, according to a government report that showed ongoing healing in the labor market.”

WHAT?? This is COMPLETELY UNTRUE!!! Oh wait, let me read that again. “…fell to the lowest level in NEARLY four YEARS last week…” Oh, I see!!! 2 weeks is really, almost, kinda like, real close to 4 YEARS!!! NO!!! This is WRONG it is not even CLOSE!!!

Let’s go ALL THE WAY BACK to March 8th and see what the Labor Department said:

“Jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five weeks, climbing by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 354,000 from 351,000.”

If I could highlight that 354,000 more I would, because the last time I checked 354,000 was LESS THAN 357,000!!! And that was a REVISED NUMBER!!!

What do you say about your “reporting” CNBC? Are we going to get an apology for this out right LIE?? It is a sad state of the world when the propagandists can not even get the story right!!!

I have not written about the Unemployment rate since February 2nd, I’ve been pretty busy. I think everyone should know where I stand on the Government Propaganda. IF there is any confusion please read the previous posts concerning unemployment. This time I am just going to give a brief summary of what has happened since the last time.

“The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits dropped last week, the latest evidence that the job market is strengthening. The Labor Department says weekly unemployment benefit applications fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000. That’s the smallest number of applicants since April 2008.“

The smallest since April 2008??? What about LAST WEEK’s number?? They said it was 348,000!!! But they adjusted it upwardto 364,000 this week!!!

“The department also made its annual revisions to the past five years of unemployment benefit data. The revisions significantly increased the number of unemployment benefit applicants in recent months.”

More government massaging!!! So, they were able to lie about report LOWER numbers than actually occurred in the REAL WORLD and are now “adjusting” all those LOWER estimates in one week!!! Those “adjustments” SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE the number of applicants in recent months. You know…..that time when EVERYONE was “reporting” that things were IMPROVING!!!

and the last quote is PRICELESS:

“More than 12.8 million people remain unemployed and the economy still has 5 million fewer jobs than before the downturn.”

Read that again. 5 MILLION FEWER JOBS available!!! And that does not say anything about how many NEW ENTRANTS there are to the job pool. You know…..all those people that have just turned 18 or have graduated from college in the last 3 years and now WANT A JOB!!!

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the lowest level since February 2008, the Labor Department said. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 353,000 from the previously reported 351,000.”

“The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week to 351,000, matching a four-year low, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 365,000 from 362,000.”

“Jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five weeks, climbing by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 354,000 from 351,000.”

“Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended Feb. 11, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the lowest level since March 2008, when the U.S. was in the early stages of a recession. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 361,000 from 358,000.”

“On the economic front, weekly jobless claims declined 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000, according to the Labor Department, hitting the second-lowest level in almost four years.”

358,000 + 15,000 = 373,000 which is an 8,000 upwardly revised number from the previous week of an initially reported 367,000!!

How many times can the news outlets claim that this weeks number is the LOWEST since whenever, before the public says “but this is HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK”?? At least twice in the last month they have said that 348,000 is the lowest since 2008!!! I call BS!!! You do NOT get to lie claim, INCORRECTLY, that this weeks number, which WILL BE REVISED HIGHER NEXT WEEK, is the lowest in 4 years, and THEN DO IT AGAIN LATER AFTER YOU “ADJUST” THE NUMBER TO REALITY!!!

So to summarize we have had 8 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 14 = 37,000 initial claims “ADJUSTMENTS” in almost 2 months. NOT including the adjustments that were made this week, which SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED the number of applicants in the last few months!!! Still we do NOT have a single month where the “revision” is “downward”, which means that the government propagandists, that call themselves statisticians, ALWAYS underestimate the initial claims in order for it to appear that the jobs picture is improving. Do NOT forget that we still have 5 MILLION fewer jobs, and this, AFTER WE HAVE “STIMULATED” with TRILLIONS of worthless dollars!!! Thanks Mr. Obama, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner, great work!!! (sarcasm off)

“This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.”

And the verdict is (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 379,000 from the previously reported 377,000.”

Missed by ANOTHER 1,000 jobs!!! And again I missed to the upside, this time. Which means that my estimates miss to BOTH sides of the actual number, so when combined MY estimates are MUCH MORE ACCURATE than the government propagandists!!!

So just to summarize, two weeks ago the number was 356,000. Then last week the number was 379,000. Wow, that looks like the number is getting bigger, or RISING!! As opposed to STILL falling!!! This week the number is:

367,000!!! Not only is the number NOT “still falling”, but it is STILL larger than it was two weeks ago. This week I will wager that this number is revised UPWARD, AGAIN, to at least 370,000. Any takers??

“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000….”

So lets see, 377,000 – 21,000 = 356,000. I missed on my estimate by 1,000, and AGAIN my estimate is closer to reality, by a FACTOR, than the Government Propagandists!!! Also, please note that the revision of the previous weeks number was AGAIN AN UPWARD REVISION. So, they are still trying to pain a more rosy picture than actually exists in the real world!!

This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000. Any takers?

Something else I would like to discuss in the CNBC article:

“Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Please remember that CNBC was more than willing to point out that “things were getting better” on such flimsy evidence as:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — that generally signals hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Prior to last week’s spike, applications had been below 375,000 for three of the past four weeks.”

See how optimistic that is? However, I seem to have missed ANY MENTION of the fact that for “three of the past four weeks” applications have been ABOVE 375,000, signaling the fact that the unemployment rate is NOT GOING TO IMPROVE!!!

“The number of people in the U.S. seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008.”

352,000!! That is a GOOD number. Not great, BUT if we can continue to move in the right direction on this scale, things will BEGIN to improve in the United States of America for the first time since Obama ascended to the Presidency. I will still not blame the improvement on Him. In other words it is NOT his fault things may be getting better. Should not be too difficult for Him to accept this. He has NOT taken responsibility for anything since He took office………..as a Senator!!!

I am not saying that we have entered the calm seas and the sailing will be easy from here. We still have to deal with ALL of the people who are unemployed that the Government Propaganda machine does not count, which would push the official unemployment rate above 10%. We still have to hope that Europe can figure a way out of its mess. We still have to hope that Iran does not do something stupid. We still have to deal with ObamaCare and its effects on employment. We will still have to deal with the rate of inflation and the fact that earnings and interest rates did NOT keep up. And we have to deal with an Election Year. Oh wait….scratch that last one…..IF the President and Congress can agree on NOTHING it will be good for US.

“Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??”

from FoxNews:

“Weekly applications fell 50,000, the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years, the Labor Department said Thursday.”

Lets see, 352,000 + 50,000 = 402,000 claims for last week. Looks like I win another bet!! I was off by 3,000 this week, but I said 399,000 to make a point. I picked that number to imply that the number would be greater than the magic 400,000 number. So, I would like some artistic slack in the size of my mis-estimation last week. This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week. Any takers??

“Weekly applications rose by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday”

Let’s see, I have to do some math. 399,000 – 24,000 equals…..carry the one…. 375,000. OMG, another PERFECT estimate by yours truly. See, government propagandists statisticians of the NON-Labor Department, it is NOT that difficult!!! Oh, wait!! I forgot you guys are trying to make it look better for Dear Leader, and do not care about the TRUTH. My bad!! I still say that I could INCREASE the accuracy of your forecasts, for a price that is.

More from FoxNews:

“Applications for weekly unemployment benefits spiked last week, largely because companies let go of thousands of workers after the holiday season.”

As a side note, FoxNews, it is only a “spike” if the next number is lower (closer to 375,000 would be a symmetrical “spike”). Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000?? And remember what I said a month ago:

“Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post?? Well, it goes something like this. The month is December. Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity. Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even? Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc. These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list. I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year. Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve. At this point I am a skeptic!!”

Looks like I was correct in being SKEPTICAL!! This week I will wager that next week this 399,000 number for Initial Claims gets revised, UPWARD AGAIN, to 403,000, which is above the TOXIC 400,000 level!! Any takers??

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 387,000 from the previously reported 381,000.”

You see, this “adjustment” is the LARGEST amount, 6,000, since I started pointing out that the Labor Department and the Bureau of “Labor Statistics” (ROFLMAO……sorry I could not help my self) should be renamed the PROPAGANDA Department. Why would this be the LARGEST adjustment, you ask yourself?? I can think of at least three GOOD reasons why the Government and OBAMA would want this number to appear “better” than it actually is!!! And do NOT forget that the previous week the “adjustment” was smaller than normal.

1. To make the American people feel better over the CHRISTMAS Holiday Season

2. To close out the year 2011 on a less negative outlook, and

3. The Iowa Caucus was this week. If President Obama can blunt some of the criticism from the GOP, well that would be a Bonus!!

Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!! Do you want to take that bet??

Since that would make two weeks in a row that the rate is at least 375,000, does that mean that hiring is NOT strong and we should NOT expect a reduction in the unemployment rate?? Not only that, but last week, the number was WELL ABOVE 375,000!!! By the way, you still have not answered my question about the 350,000 versus the 375,000 numbers!! Which is it?

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change.”

And this week the government propagandists “statisticians” say (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 366,000 from the previously reported 364,000.”

Damn, missed by ANOTHER 2,000 claims, this time to the upside. See how a REAL statistician makes errors to both sides of an estimation. Some months I ma above the number, some months I am below the number, and some months I am just right. My error per month is MUCH LOWER than the government propagandists, and my overall error when taken over a longer time period almost disappears. UNLIKE the government propagandists who have been off TO THE DOWNSIDE (which makes the unemployment numbers “appear” to be better than they are) almost ALL OF THE TIME!!!

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 366,000.”

Wow….my largest miss yet, 2,000 to the upside.

The Initial claims from the government propagandists this week is:

“Jobless claims, meanwhile, posted another weekly drop in another sign that the thawing of the labor market is progressing. The fall to 364,000 was the lowest level in more than three years.”

I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change. Any takers? And don’t forget that this week is Christmas and next week is New Years, so wouldn’t you think that these numbers should be lower? I mean, when I owned and ran my own businesses (a small business, like MOST of the businesses in America, that employ the largest number of workers) there is NO way I would have laid someone off during the Holidays. I would have warned, but there is NO way they would have been unemployed. Please remember what I said two weeks ago:

“Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post?? Well, it goes something like this. The month is December. Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity. Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even? Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc. These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list. I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year. Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve. At this point I am a skeptic!!”

The main point is STILL valid, I will wait till after the New Year to draw conclusions about the labor market. It may be a few weeks into January before the picture becomes clear.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!! Happy Chanukah!! Happy Kwanzaa!! Happy Holidays!! If I have missed anyone, it is NOT meant as disrespect.