Monday, September 8, 2008

Palin's effect in Michigan

The topline number on Sarah Palin's effect in Michigan is that 45% of voters say they are more likely to vote for John McCain because she is on the ticket, 35% say they are less likely to support McCain, and for 20% it makes no difference.

Digging deeper it appears her selection is having a mixed effect:

-It is helping to bring Democratic men into the Republican fold. 14% of Democrats in Michigan are supporting John McCain. Whereas before that group tended toward middle aged Democratic women, or prototypical Clinton supporters, it's now comprised 61% of men. By comparison just 42% of Democrats overall are men. Among all Democrats supporting McCain, 86% said the Palin selection made them more likely to support him.

-But it's turning off some Republicans too. Among the small group of Republicans who are supporting Barack Obama, 64% say that the Palin selection helped to turn them off of McCain. And a third of the Republicans supporting Obama express the opinion that they would be voting for McCain if he had chosen Mitt Romney as his running mate instead of Palin.

-A slight advantage with voters in the middle. 43% of independents say they're more likely to vote for McCain because of Palin while 36% say they are less likely to. Overall McCain is performing four points better with independents than he was in PPP's last poll of Michigan but that's not what you would consider 'game changing' movement.

At least for now McCain's choice is paying dividends in Michigan but we'll have to check back in three weeks to see if it will make a lasting difference or quickly wear off.

Tom, when will your Florida and Colorado polls be released? You must be pleased that Fox News quoted your Michigan poll last night. I guess that means you've made it as a fair and balanced pollster!

The Michigan poll was taken at the height of the McCain bounce. If the bounce proved permanent then sure, Michigan is in play. But 9 times out of 10, a bounce fades and I would expect Michigan to revert to an Obama lead of 5 points or so.