Lindsey Graham’s Primary Strength in Numbers

Graham got a new challenger on his right this weekend. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

It was inevitable that the field of primary challengers to Lindsey Graham would grow, but the sheer number of ambitious Republicans seeking to oust the South Carolina senator may end up being the undoing of them all.

With a new opponent entering the race over the weekend and another poised to join soon, the question is whether enough variables could fall into place to cause a different result this time.

It’s possible, according to several South Carolina GOP operatives who spoke with CQ Roll Call in recent days. But it would take an extraordinarily large amount of money, extensive support from outside groups and an unlikely coalescing of the anti-Graham vote. A top challenger would need all of those things, plus cash to spare for a runoff.

“The thing we’ve learned with Sen. Graham is, unlike a lot of incumbents, he doesn’t take much for granted,” said Charleston-based consultant Adam Temple. “He’s kind of always poised to run a difficult race.”

Republican operatives said Graham’s chances for re-election remain good as long as Nancy Mace, former congressional candidate Richard Cash and state Sen. Lee Bright, who’s reportedly set to enter the race soon, duke it out in an effort to finish second. If Graham is held under 50 percent, the top two will advance to a runoff.

“If the groups like FreedomWorks, Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity coalesce around someone like Nancy, we’ve seen some pretty big incumbents get beaten, and I don’t think that’s outside of the realm of possibility,” said Dan Tripp, a consultant and former state legislator.

The second-term senator has faced a primary challenger amid conservative criticism before, dispensing of one in 2008 by taking two-thirds of the vote.

This cycle, Graham set a new personal fundraising record in the second quarter, raising $1.4 million for the first time ever over a three-month period. He ended June with $6.3 million in the bank, already enough to saturate the state’s media markets in the months leading up to the June primary.

One unaffiliated GOP operative in the state said the anti-incumbent vote that almost any challenger starts out with in a statewide race in South Carolina is about one-third of the electorate.

“The problem for any opponent taking on an incumbent … is getting from 35 percent to 50 percent plus one,” the operative said. “That’s where it gets real expensive.”

Graham’s leadership on the immigration overhaul that the Senate passed this year and his penchant for working with Democrats on various issues has left him vulnerable to an ideological primary challenge. Hoping to take Graham out next year are at least three Republicans with varying degrees of campaign experience and the potential to splinter the anti-Graham messaging.

The most intriguing of the bunch is Mace, a consultant and the first woman to graduate from the Citadel. She’s been publicly critical of Graham for some time but just entered the race on Aug. 3 with an address to the Berkeley County Republican Party.

“What Nancy Mace brings to the race is the most legitimate challenger in a primary that Sen. Graham has had to date,” Temple said. “She’s obviously going to appeal to a lot of the Republicans in the state who are disgruntled with how Sen. Graham has voted with Democrats.”

In a statement to CQ Roll Call, Graham spokesman Tate Zeigler said the senator “is a strong fiscal, social, and national security conservative with the record to back it up.” Among other things, Zeigler cited Graham’s support for repealing the health care law, “standing up for the unborn, protecting the second amendment” and ensuring the country has a strong military.

Not only must the groups coalesce around a single candidate, but they’ll likely need to invest a potentially unprecedented amount of money to come close to keeping pace with Graham, sources said.

The Republican operative, speaking on background, said the only way Graham could fall below 50 percent in the primary is if a candidate or group “can do two to three months of full saturation television in every market in this state” — potentially a $3 million proposition.

Tripp said Graham became a “rock star” to the Republican base in the late 1990s when, while serving in the House, he was part of the group that sought to oust Speaker Newt Gingrich and was one of the impeachment managers of President Bill Clinton.

Now, Tripp said, “he doesn’t seem to have a problem poking the eye of conservative voters and working on issues that are diametrically opposed to where conservative voters stand.”

For Graham’s primary problems to escalate, he’ll need to lose the support of more than just a wing of the primary electorate. And at this point, there’s no evidence that’s happened.

More from At the Races

This, of course, offers the rather silly implication that a single primary challenger would be able to successfully unseat Graham, a notion supported by hashtags and comment threads, but not as much by financial numbers, polling, precedent, or objective reality. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott will still be South Carolina’s Senators come 2015, and to suggest otherwise is indicative of little more than a slow news day.

ajr86

South Carolina has a runoff if no candidate receives 50% of the vote. Even if graham likely gets the most votes on primary day, it’ll likely be under 50%. All the anti-Graham forces will then unite to oust Graham. That’s what happened in Texas with Ted Cruz.

Ryan

This, however, isn’t Texas. It’s South Carolina, and when evangelical state Senator Curtis Bostic had the chance to beat Mark Sanford in a run-off (a run-off primarily caused by the fact that there were 16 primary candidates in total) a few months ago, Sanford not only won the nomination, he won it decisively. Name recognition, low primary turnout, better spending, and a better ground game are all major elements for success, and the only one in doubt for Graham so far is the ground game. And frankly, if a two-term incumbent US Senator doesn’t have an indisputably top-tier ground game, then they probably don’t deserve to win.

ID-2

Sanford was not exactly a mirror image of Graham in terms of his policy positions or ideology. But I grant you that all your other points are perfectly valid.

ID-2

Ted Cruz united the national conservative movement. At this point there is no indication that any of the anti-Graham challengers are near what Ted Cruz became.

Obama_dogeater

Why in the H E L L would the people of SC re-elect this RINO??

ED

IT IS MOST UNFORTUNATE THAT SEN. GRAHAM HAS MISSED HIS CALLING TO BE A RADIO TALK SHOW HOST, BECAUSE THEN WE WOULD NOT HAVE TO LOOK AT HIM AND WE COULD SHUT OFF HIS ENDLESS DRIBBLE . I THINK “ajr86″ HAS THE ANSWER. GOD BLESS AND THANK SOUTH CAROLINA VOTERS FOR THEIR GOOD SENSE.

Cecil

If a candidate is not one of the extreme right wing fringe of the GOP they are branded as RINOS and destroyed. No one with moderate ideas who are willing to compromise are welcome in this party anymore. That’s the reason they are losing their status as a major political party. They cannot win on a national level. Graham is on some powerful committees in the Senate and is respected by fellow senators. If he goes, the GOP is toast. The only leadership they will have will be from folks who are hung up on a book written by a Tsarist refugee, who preached selfishness and lived off of social security benefits.

JoJo58

I would vote for a dog over Graham. That RINO needs to go. If Graham is on the GOP ballot, then vote third party.