Thoughts on Life, Love, Politics, Hypocrisy and Coming Out in Mid-Life

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Is Florida Even a Swing State Anymore?

While Virginia has been often called a "swing state" in presidential elections, this cycle, the polls are showing Hillary Clinton running well ahead of Donald Trump. Indeed, the chairman of the RNC recently more or less conceded that Virginia was a lost cause for the GOP in 2016. Now, a piece in The Daily Beast suggests that Florida is poised to follow Virginia and become a blue state in 2016 and beyond. The facts set forth make sense and ought to strike terror in what's left of the so-called Republican establishment. Here are story highlights:

Remember a
couple months ago whenReince Priebus tweeted that electoral college map showing
how he thoughtDonald Trumpcould get to 270?

The RNC chairman
had Trump winning Ohio and Pennsylvania. And Michigan. And Wisconsin. And
Minnesota. Yes, Minnesota. Which is going to be such a blowout thatno one’s even polled it since April.

There was lots
of chortling about all that, as you might expect. But the chortlers missed what
was by far the most interesting thing about Priebus’s map: He ceded Virginia.
The chairman of the Republican Partyacknowledged
that Virginia is gone. It’ll still elect Republican governors, of course, but
for presidential election purposes, Virginia is now blue. To give you an
indication of how blue: Hillary Clinton has temporarily stopped running ads
there.

You know what
they say about Florida: must-win state. The urgency is there even in the way
they say the word, is it not? Close your eyes now and conjure with me the image
and sound of Wolf Blitzer saying: “And breaking news from the must-win state ofFlo-rida...”

Actually, it’s
only a must-win for Republicans, as I’ve noted before. Democrats have plenty of
paths to 270 without Florida. Republicans, none.

You will also
hear them say a kajillion times until Election Day that Florida is a swing
state. Well, yes. It has been historically. But the combination of massive
demographic changes since 2012 and Trump’s anorexic performance among
college-educated whites makes me wonder if Florida is a swing state this year
at all. And while the Republicans might nominate a normal candidate in 2020,
the state’s demography is galloping away from the GOP.

In sum, 2016
could be the year that Florida stopped being a swing state.

First, demography.
Florida’s minority population is now above 40 percent, with the Hispanic
population at around 25 percent (PDF). In addition, Hispanics are
registering to vote in large numbers, and they’reheavily Democratic.

This is partly
becauseyounger Cubans lean strongly Democratic, an
obviously sharp departure from their grandparents. All South Florida Cubans
support the normalization of relations with Cuba, for example, except those
older than 65, and even among them it’s awfully close. . . . And the change is
also because of a huge influx of Puerto Ricans into the state.

Onerecent Florida poll put Trump at 13 percent among the
state’s Hispanics. If
that’s close to right, Clinton gets 80 to 85 percent of the fifth of the
overall vote that’s Latino, and 95 percent of the 14 percent that’s African
American. That’s 30 percent right there, and it would mean she’d need only
around 35 percent of the white vote to win, maybe even a little less.[S]aying that it will take an unusual
occurrence for Trump to have a good shot of winning Florida—is significant.
It’s basically saying that at least in presidential years—clearly not in off
years, until Democratic constituencies vote in larger numbers—Florida leans
blue. And although the Republicans presumably won’t nominate a sociopath in
2020, the demography is just going to be that much worse for the white people’s
revenge party.

Because
everybody knows that if Florida is over, the race is over, and no one’s going
to care, and ratings will suffer, and ad revenues will tank. So it’s of vital
importance, to the cable news nets especially, that Florida be held in the “too
close to call” category for as long as possible, which means that—you’ve seen
this movie before—there may be six polls showing Clinton up by seven to 12
points, but when that one comes along showing it at four, it’ll get 17 times
the airtime as the other six combined.

The second moral
has to do with the Republican Party and Reince Priebus. Just as I was finishing
up this column Monday afternoon, I saw that the chief spokesman of the Florida
GOP, a son of Honduran immigrants,was quitting his postto pursue a “new opportunity to
continue promoting free-market solutions while avoiding efforts that support
Donald Trump.”

The cowardice of
Priebus and the whole GOP establishment this past year has richly earned them
defeat in Florida. Once upon a time, the GOP at least came close enough in
Florida that they could steal it, banana-republic style. Looks like those days
may be gone.

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Out gay attorney in a committed relationship; formerly married and father of three wonderful children; sometime activist and political/news junkie; survived coming out in mid-life and hope to share my experiences and reflections with others.
In the career/professional realm, I am affiliated with Caplan & Associates PC where I practice in the areas of real estate, estate planning (Wills, Trusts, Advanced Medical Directives, Financial Powers of Attorney, Durable Medical Powers of Attorney); business law and commercial transactions; formation of corporations and limited liability companies and legal services to the gay, lesbian and transgender community, including birth certificate amendment.

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