Blu-ray Discs Could See Shortage in 2011
Washington, D.C. (March 21, 2011) -- Will there be fewer Blu-ray movies under your Christmas tree this year?

Home Media Magazine reports that research firm Futuresource Consulting says Blu-ray disc replication companies are reaching capacity due to various infrastructure problems. And if the studios don't invest in improving production facilities now, it could force them to delay several fourth quarter releases until 2012. There were major capacity shortages in Q4 of 2010, Jim Bottoms, Futuresource director, told the publication. People are talking about new investment, but nothing has been approved yet. It needs to happen soon for it to help Q4.

Home Media writes that Bottoms says the studios are planning to release several Blu-ray boxed sets and combo packs in the fourth quarter. But this could further burden replication facilities, leading to more delays.

Better efficiency wont be enough, he said. Its going to take investment by the big three (Sony DADC, Technicolor and Cinram). There are a few replicators here and there they can turn to for overspill, but this is mostly in their hands.

Cinram told Home Media that it agreed with Bottoms' analysis, but The Digital Entertainment Group, which represents the studios and other Blu-ray companies, declined to comment.Commentary

If Blu-ray hits a roadblock in the fourth quarter, it could create a big advantage for Netflix and other companies pushing video streaming services. Consumers will watch their favorite movies however they can; if they can't get the disc, they will rent the streaming edition over the Net.

That is, if the studios allow the streaming editions to be available prior to the disc release. If not, home viewers may still seek out streaming videos due to dissatisfaction over the scant supply of new discs. Regardless, the studios better get in gear and invest in those replication facilities.