This project integrated fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identified and prioritized potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors).Products include: 1) maps of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under the two most appropriate climate scenarios for southern California; 2) linked population models and dynamic bioclimate envelopes that will form the basis for testing climate change adaptation options and other management scenarios; 3) spatially/temporally explicit recommendations on the most suitable management option (in terms of population improvement under climate change and urban growth) for each species addressed; 4) spatially explicit recommendations for functional types, and habitat specialist types, on the most suitable management option; and 5) an adaptive management framework for structured decision making that can be updated as new information becomes available.

Conservation Biology Institute; US FWS; San Diego Association of Governments - Land Use and Transportation Planning; Arizona State University - School of Geographical Sciences; California Native Plant Society; US BLM; The Nature Conservancy

Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of species under global change. (Adaptive management framework for decision making under global change.)