Tuesday, December 03, 2013

VIX Retest of 1240-1199 head fake provided support to reverse back through 4 week highs, breaking out and squeezing shorts after the attempted breakdown at 1199. Taking this 1463-1199 range, gives an upside expansion target of 1674. Pullbacks within 1330-1290 new support.

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN
TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT
SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE
INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

VIX broke its trend line from the March lows on Friday, falling below 1240 and hitting 1199. This quickly recovered on Monday as the VIX traded back above this trend line, creating a headfake. Thus far, this head fake has led to a squeeze back to retesting 2 week resistance at 1400. Pullbacks down to 1240 now offer new support based off this 1199 low and a weekly close above 1340 is bullish. Earlier this week, SPY Implied Volatility was 10.16% vs Historical Volatility of 11.73%, according to a 30day average from IVolatility.com.

RISK DISCLOSURE:
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN
TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE
FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL
INVESTMENT.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS
IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN
INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

On the tenth anniversary of Elliot Smith's death I think its clear that his music stands the test of time. "...and a little more than five years after [his performance at the Oscar's], on October 21, 2003, he would be dead, at age 34. But the heart of Elliott's music still goes on, a decade later." Read more.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Disclosure: I have no position in XLF, but it looks like an amazing short on this retrace. The upsloping neckline is ~$19.75, but things should really get interesting on a break of $19.27. The target on a break is $17.69.

Saturday, October 05, 2013

Disclosure: I sold my October CVX puts Friday and bought calls for a short term pop. Next week I'll look for good entries on CVX November puts targeting the $104-$108 range. So full disclosure, I own CVX calls.

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Bernanke is creating the oh so perfect situation for a full scale US economic collapse, gotta love it. Push on the gas peddle until something spectacular happens helicopter Ben! He will go down as the biggest villains in US history, but for now everyone drink the kool-aid and play the game of musical chairs!

Monday, June 17, 2013

With the recent rapid rise in interest rates, a surging yen, plunging global equities, new bear market in gold, and spiking VIX, many investors seems to be scratching their heads at the modest ~5% correction in US stocks ($169 to $160). If the world is going through a significant deflationary correction (like every index except for US stocks suggests), then why haven't stocks dropped more? Its anybody's guess and there are many things to point to such as the accommodating FOMC (no tapering!), improving US economy, or possibility of fiscal stimulus.

Its anybody's guess and there are many things to point to such as the accommodating FOMC (no tapering!), improving US economy, or possibility of fiscal stimulus. Frankly, I think it could be just a question of leading indicators vs lagging indicators, and the US stock indexes seem to be the latter case these days (a lagging indicator). US stock investor shave grown complacent due to the Bernanke put, and have absolutely no fear of a meaningful correction. That could all be changing right under the bull's noses, if you put all of the puzzle pieces together. Lets keep it simple, based on the above SPY chart I would be looking for shorts anywhere $162 to $165. If SPY can break ~$166 then the bulls could squeeze us up to new highs. However, I think a break of $162-ish spells doom for the bulls with ~$153-$156 (5%-7% lower) targeted by the rising 200 dma and measure rule ($169 - $160 = A, $160- $165 = B).

Probably what will happen is a huge move one day this week related to the FOMC. Either the market will go into some sort of panic and tank, or the bears will capitulate and send stocks into an upwards crash/capitulation, such as I've spoken of recently. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of huge fake out, for example, a spike to new highs followed by a drop below $162 in the same day. If you start to see the volume spike then you'll know the big wave is upon is.

Disclosure: I have no SPY position but I have many other shorts, including S&P500-correlated indexes like the Russel 2000 and the Dow Jones Industrials. I am long the yen and short gold. So I am short, and I intend to stay short unless we break recent highs. If we slide through recent lows it'll be time to hang ten.

Monday, June 03, 2013

There are many extremely interesting charts right now. We've are in the midst of one of the longest winning streaks (base don various metrics) in decades for US stocks and this has lead to some really nice formations. Over the next few days I'm going to post some breathtaking charts. I think we are really close to a major turning point (based on bonds, yen, topping patterns, etc) but will we crash up in a capitulative top or has it happened already? Regardless, I am convinced the price action will be fascinating. I am going to update the blog later this week (long overdue), but first, enjoy some sweet charts. JNJ is one that has many people puzzled, the stock had been soaring until the recent correction which looks very healthy by most standards. If it weren't for the fact that we aren't having a baby boom right now, if the steep uptrend hadn't broken, if that beautiful inverted hammer candle hadnt formed at a new all time high, and if the CCI and stochastics weren't flashing bearish signals, I might be bullish on this 50 dma bounce. Instead, I'd look to get puts when the stock reaches the 87.50-88 area. I have no position currently. To quote the words of our former dear leader, "this sucker might go down".

Friday, May 31, 2013

Friday, May 24, 2013

As you can see from the above, I see the potential for this past week's high to be a major top. Some aspects of the recent price action look like capitulation but neither the volume nor the severity of the decline have me convinced. I have come around to thinking that the only way this five year bull market ends is with a capitulation event where price and volume spike, then reverse. Upward breakouts from rising wedges (see weekly below) usually end in tears, but we still have a few more months till the wedge apex. If this is capitulation, then it feels more like the beginnings of it rather than the end. More and more people are talking about the stock market these days, and it seems like the public is getting in now, finally... 1000 points later (150%). I have longs and shorts but I'm long SPY aggressively long via calls right now.

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Monday, April 15, 2013

In today's lovely daily candlestick, IWM broke through two seemingly important price points and more importantly its flattening 50 dma. The small cap ETF did all of this on 100M shares traded, second only to the first trading day of the year (~3x avg vol). This now brings into focus previous a previous area of support around ~$89, then nothing but air for another -$4.

Disclosure: I am long FSLR and short $40-strike June calls against the entire position. The calls make me nervous, because I think FSLR is in the early stages of a long term uptrend which started almost a year ago. That being said, the bulls would do well to consolidate their (massive) gains of late, but not to beyond recent levels of resistance (i.e. build support above $30). So I'd like to see FSLR hang out here or drift lower to these levels ($33.3-35.6) for a few weeks at least (i.e. form a bull flag and wait for MA's to catch up). Plus, hedging against a broad market decline seems prudent given the circumstances.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Sunday, March 24, 2013

As sort of an update to this post, IWM (above) has been push higher consistently for about four months but recently consolidating some of those gains over the past few weeks. The CCI and stochastics look a lot like they did back in November, right before we broke out and made new all time highs. The trend is up on all time frames here so you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. However, its interesting to note that we never tested that $84 support after the gap n run to start the year. Also, the steeper uptrend that started the year ended in late February, and we have been trying to get back up to it ever since. I am becoming increasingly skeptical of the recent gains and have increased bearish bets on IWM.