Flat-out contradictory stories are buzzing around the Net about whether Nokia's hot Lumia 900 smartphone will get an upgrade to the next version of Microsoft's Windows Phone OS, codenamed "Apollo" and anticipated to be coming out in October.

On one side, you have The Verge and ZDNet's Mary Jo Foley, who are claiming
based on unnamed sources, nope, no existing Windows Phones will get upgrades to the next version. If this is true, it's brutal for Nokia, which is right now putting massive muscle behind the launch of a flagship device destined to be obsolete in six months.

On the other side, you have WMPowerUser and a Portuguese tech site, which are quoting a video interview with Microsoft evangelist Nuno Silva saying that yes, all existing Windows Phone 7 devices will get Apollo.

So what the heck is going on? And why isn't Microsoft clearing this up? I suspect Microsoft doesn't actually know.

Six Months To Go
We're six months away from Windows Phone 8 "Apollo," at least. Most people I know say the new OS is coming in mid-October, but that just means we'll see demos then. Realistically, Microsoft is targeting the holiday shopping season for Apollo; anything before late November will do.

Have you ever written software? Even gigantic, battleship-sized software projects like a new OS version aren't fixed seven months before the first retail launch. And Mary Jo Foley's column isn't even from this week. It's from six weeks ago.

It may be that, at one point, Microsoft was thinking of Windows Phone 7.5 to 8 as a hard break. That actually wouldn't be too much of a problem if it wasn't for the Nokia Lumia 800 and 900; most of the other Windows Phones out there are either much older, or made absolutely no impact on the market. (Sorry, Samsung Focus S.)
Those HTC Trophy owners on Verizon Wireless will be ready for new phones by Christmas.

But the Lumia 900 changes the game entirely. Nokia and Microsoft
have a major interest in each other's success. The Lumia 900 will be on sale all through the summer, running dangerously close to the actual launch of Windows Phone 8. It'll be the prominent, best-known flagship for the platform (sorry, HTC Titan II). And Nokia is trying to re-establish its reputation, at least here in the U.S., as a smartphone brand people can trust. (Its recent handling of the Lumia 900's connectivity issues, which was swift and honest, definitely put it on the right track.)

So here we are with the Windows Phone 8 upgrades. Microsoft isn't responding because it's working on it. And we're getting contradictory answers because the various people involved (Mary Jo Foley, Nuno Silva, the Verge's ouija board) may have become informed at different stages of the ongoing process. There may not even be a final decision yet.

The Carrier Conundrum
Here's the biggest danger to any potential upgrades, though. Windows Phone upgrades also have to go through carriers, and the relationship between Microsoft and carrier partners isn't going as smoothly as it could.

Yesterday four major European cell phone carriers told Reuters that "no one comes into the store and asks for a Windows phone," sounding
distinctly disappointed at the platform's lack of word-of-mouth buzz. I've heard the same from some U.S. carriers.

Carriers are abstractly interested in Windows Phone as a third platform to replace BlackBerry and prevent them from being dependent on Apple and Google. But in their view, Microsoft needs them more than they need Microsoft. So they want Microsoft to come to them more as a supplicant than as a partner, willing to buy market share with cash in hand.

This ties into the upgrade issue because for carriers, handset software upgrades are a pain. They have to verify the new software on their network as if it was a new phone, without the prospect of gaining a new two-year contract at the end.

That process goes much more smoothly with popular devices, or at least with devices where the carriers see why they're making the effort. Right now, they don't see the advantage with the nearly zero-market-share Windows Phone.

If Microsoft can't win the carriers over, it doesn't matter whether it works some wonder of engineering to whip those HTC Trophy phones into shape for Apollo. The carrier labs will be the end of the road.

This Isn't Fatal
Being unable to provide upgrades to its next OS version is a PR black eye for Microsoft. It makes the company look like it isn't interested in long-term relationships with its users. But it isn't fatal for Windows Phone.

Remember: the Google Android update horrors haven't dampened the sales of the world's number-one mobile platform, which has gone from strength to strength even as geeks have whined about their lack of gingerbread cookies and ice cream sandwiches. ICS may be the most current version of Android, but very few Android phones have ICS. (For more on that, see Android Lacks Focus, and It's a Problem).

Windows Phone users are more likely to be consumers than tech geeks, and thus less likely to demand the absolute latest software right now. And there are so few existing Windows Phones out there anyway that the update issue doesn't affect all that many people.

It's Nokia who is really in danger here. Nokia's life depends on the success of the Lumia line far more than Microsoft's does on Windows Phone 7, and anything that could cast a shadow over faith in the Lumias is a major problem for the phone maker.

Don't think this story is over, and don't let it stop you from buying a Lumia 900. We recommend the Lumia for what it does today, not what it may or may not do eight months from now. But stay tuned.

About the Author

PCMag.com's lead mobile analyst, Sascha Segan, has reviewed hundreds of smartphones, tablets and other gadgets in more than 13 years with PCMag. He's the head of our Fastest Mobile Networks project, hosts our One Cool Thing daily Web show, and writes opinions on tech and society.
Segan is also a multiple award-winning travel writer. Other than ... See Full Bio

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