Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Decisions, Decisions - Here's a Method and Tool That Could Help

I recently posted another Google Knol - a bit of knowledge. This one is a rational method for chosing one item from a group of attractive alternatives, particularly in the case where your spouse or business associates differ. It is a process we called a "Trade Study" at work.

"Buying a house, car, pet or PC? Choosing among alternative courses of action at work? Do you and your spouse or your colleagues differ on which choice to make?

"Here is how to get everyone involved to 'put their cards on the table' and make a rational choice that will best serve your needs. A relatively simple Excel-based tool helps you make the right decision, including decisions in the face of uncertainty! It is available for FREE."

2 comments:

I have a litle trouble reading your pet excell work sheets. Is there a way to enlarge them?

I applied a similar spreadsheet years age when my wife and I were deciding where to retire.

We loved the Arizona area at the same time our children were in the Chicago area so we had emotional ties there. There were many other factors sunshine,suburban vs rural etc. Finance was not a limiting factor. Other considerations were south vs north, midwest vs west, change of seasons all of these had emotional appeal.We weighed the emotional appeal of each of these factors, made trips not only to Arizona, but to other areas such as Missouri as comprimising alternatives.

The result was a very interesting spreadsheet.

My point is Emotion is a rational entity, at least in our case, and can be evaluated by your method not just hard cold numbers.

John, thanks for your comments. If you double-click on the image that should open another window and the image should appear full-size so you can read it more easily.

That worked for me just now both on the Blog and on the Knol.

Both the Blog and the Knol have a limit on the size of images and I usually choose the largest size if the image has numbers in it. It appears that they keep the best resolution image that you have uploaded but only display it when you double-click the image.

After you view the image full-size, click the left arrow at the upper top of Internet Explorer to go back to the original page.

I like your story about using a spreadsheet to rationalize your wife's and your emotions about choosing a place to live with conflicting choices all of which had postive emotional appeal. What a blessing to be able to choose the best of the best of a good lot instead of the least worst of a bad lot!

I got my job at IBM in upstate NY in 1965 and we had a baby and limited finances and we decided to buy a farm and be "gentleman farmers" while I worked full-time and my wife stayed home with our daughter.

We reduced our choices to two, one of which was a bit ugly and bare (no central heating) but less expensive and the other which was much nicer but further from work and more expensive.

At the time I did not know about spreadsheets (which, it turns out were used in finance even before they got computerized) but I came up with a way to turn everything into dollars. For example, I used the distance to and from work to get commute costs and added the dollar value of my commute time, the number of acres, the cost to add central heating, etc., etc. plus the prices of the two places.

It turned out, to my disappointment, that the ugly place was a much better deal than the nice one, all things considered - and we bought it! It turned out to be a great decision!

DILBERT is the story of Ira's life!

Climate Change (Global Warming?)

There is historical evidence that decades of low sunspot activity have coincided with periods of unusually cool global climates. We may be entering such a period. Click Sunspot Postings for Ira's speculations on this critical topic.

Description: This is Ira Glickstein's personal blog. However, you may join the list of Authorized Authors who may post Comments and new Topics.

Sunspot Cycle #23 was supposed to end early in 2007 but it did not hit bottom till 2009. Actual Smoothed counts for last part of #23 and first part of #24 are in Blue in the above graph. Latest NOAA prediction is in Red.

In 2006, NASA/NOAA predicted the peak to be between 180 and 156, expected to occur in early-2012. Latest predictions: NOAA says 90, NASA (Hathaway) says 59. In early 2009, when NASA was predicting 104 to occur in 2012, Ira predicted #24 to peak at 80 in July 2013. Ira's latest prediction, in late 2010, is a peak of 60.

Low counts are good news. If they continue for several cycles, we may be in for a few decades of global temperature stabilization or even a bit of cooling. That will give us some time to solve the issue of rapidly rising carbon gasses that contribute to warming.

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Curb Your Enthusiasm - Fantasy Episodes

My brother and I are members of the "cult" that enjoys Curb Your Enthusiasm, the HBO comedy series about to enter its seventh season.

Although our political viewpoints are different, I think Larry David, who created and stars in Curb, and previously co-created Seinfeld, is a comedy genius. Here is the link to the fan Blog I created

WHY DID I CREATE THE BLOG?

Some years ago, while asembling a wooden cabinet, I had a disastrous experience. I got too cocky and made a mistake that caused the partially-built cabinet to collapse "like a house of cards". It was deeply disturbing at the time, but is hilarious in retrospect.

That experience inspired me to write a story concept where Larry David, who portrays himself in Curb as a clutz when it comes to manual skills, is shamed into tackling a do-it-yourself project. In my story idea he, in his inept way, ends up doing a better job than an expert cabinet maker.

Since Larry David does not accept story ideas from the general public, my story outline has mouldered away on a computer disk in my closet somewhere. After a visit by my brother reignited my passion for Curb, I decided to resurrect the story idea and "free" it on the Internet.

Here are some short highlight clips of past seasons of Curb and a tickler for the seventh season as well as a trailer for a Woody Allen movie staring Larry David.

2052 - The Hawking Plan

2052 - The Hawking Plan is Ira's free online novel. Please read it and pass it on!
Stephanie Goldenrod strives to save human life and civilization for an infinite future. Amorality, amore and deep ethical and philosophical issues.
What will life, liberty and technology be like several decades in the future?
Click here for PREDICTIONS - How technology will affect life and liberty in future decades.

A peaceful world where large-scale military conflict is absent.

A political economy dominated and effectively ruled by transnational corporations.

A civilization where reason is trusted and faith is suspect.

A "positive ID" regime where religion-based terrorism has been suppressed, along with virtually all anonymity and privacy.

A society where most people, including ministers, priests and rabbis are not literal believers.

A post global warming world where humanity has been decimated by genetic engineering disasters.

A population served by Intelligent Robotic Agents, certified intelligent at the average human level.

A brilliant plan to spread human life and civilization far and wide into space as insurance against further disasters here on Earth. 2052 - The Hawking Plan

ALSO PUBLISHED BY IRA
Several "Knols" (bits of knowledge) on Google's Knol platform. Some are a bit technical but should be accessible by a general audience:

Exercise in Bed - Do Your 4's! Some easy exercises you can do in four minutes flat in bed.
Do some easy exercises in bed morning and evening. Energize yourself for the day. Relax yourself for some solid sleep every evening. If you do this every day for 120 years I guarantee you will live long :^)

Optimal Span What is the most effective span for a hierarchical structure? For example, Management Span of Control is optimally between 6 and 7...

Quantifying Brooks Mythical Man-Month Brooks Law states: “Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.” This Law is applicable to any task involving lots of people in complex interaction...

Bayesian AI Advisor Bayes Theorem has practical applications. Use it to make real world decisions. A relatively simple Excel-based tool helps you choose the right course of action in the face of uncertain probabilities and inexact test results. It is available for FREE.

Decision Aiding Tool - Do a Trade Study Choose the Best out of a set of attractive Alternatives. Buying a house, car, pet or PC; choosing a course of action at work? Here is how to get everyone involved and make a rational choice. A relatively simple and FREE Excel-based tool helps you make the right decision, including decisions in the face of uncertainty!

Aristotle's Physics - The Four Causes How would Aristotle have used computer graphics to depict his ideas about the Four Causes (Material, Formal, Efficient, and Final)? Written ca. 350 BC, his ideas appear primitive by our 21st Century standards but they capture the wisdom of the ages. The plain text is inadequate for modern understanding - graphics explain his concepts more clearly to a contemporary audience.

Nash Bargain Advisor. John Nash won the 1994 Nobel in Economics for his work on what came to be known as "Nash Equilibrium", where two or more competing entities "cooperate" (without illegally colluding) to reach a "Nash Bargain". The book and movie "A Beautiful Mind" dramatized Nash's life story and work. A relatively simple Excel-based tool helps you calculate a Nash Bargain in a competitive situation. It is available for FREE.

Causality and Determinism

Morality, Ethics, and Religion

A series of Topics related to traditional religion as compared to other systems of ethics and morality. This includes the affect of traditional religion on politics, comparison of atheism, theism, deism, pantheism and various organized religious denominations, etc. .