Sunday, July 28, 2013

You’ll have to forgive me if this week’s edition of
Lazy Sunday is both short and a little discombobulated. I started writing it
earlier in the week, and then got a bit sidetracked when I was forced to spend
all day Friday and most of Saturday in the hospital. Long story short, I woke
up at 3am with horrible stomach pain and finally went to the ER at around 7am Friday
morning. A quick ultrasound later, I come to find out that I have gall stones
and my gall bladder has to come out, immediately. Immediately is a relative
term in a hospital of course, but I suppose that it’s a miracle of modern
medicine that about 12 hrs after arriving at the hospital, I was lying in a recovery
bed sans gall bladder. So much of this week’s article will be written under the
influence of perchocet as I lie in bed on the road to recovery. Please forgive
both the brevity of the piece as well as any misspellings, but with the trade
deadline fast-approaching, I wanted to get some thoughts out there for you all.
So with that said, let’s kick off the first ever Lazy Sunday under the
influence of drugs…

The first domino in the annual July trade deadline
fell at the beginning of last week, when the Texas Rangers acquired starting
pitcher Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs for minor league 3B Mike Olt and a
pair of young arms. The Indians, looking to shore up their starting rotation
heading down the stretch, were reportedly interested in Garza as well. With few
legit starters on the market though, it was a sellers’ market, and the Rangers
were able to meet the steep price that the Cubs were asking for the righty.
Garza is going to be a free agent following the 2013 season, and with the new
collective bargaining rules, the team that loses Garza won’t even be eligible
for draft pick compensation since he was traded mid-season. The lack of club
control and the high cost in prospect currency combined to keep the Indians out
of serious contention for Garza’s services, and with good reason. A very rough
guess as to a comparable package from the Indians would have included Lonnie
Chisenhall, Scott Barnes and T.J. House. That’s an awful steep price for 2 ½ months
of Matt Garza.

Speaking of Chisenhall, his defensive struggles are
overshadowing the fact that he’s been a pretty good hitter of late. In 15 games
in the month of July, Chiz is hitting .269/.333/.462 with 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5
BB and 5 strikeouts. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s put together
a solid stretch of games since being recalled from AAA Columbus. Chisenhall is
still just 24 years old, and if he can just figure out how to hit lefties at
the ML level (.374 OPS against LHP in 36 plate appearances with Cleveland), he
can be a very solid player at the hot corner for the Tribe.

This of course brings us to the question of what the
Indians are going to do here at the trade deadline. As of now, it appears that
three options are on the table; buy a bullpen arm and a starter on what has
become a sellers market, try to take advantage of the sellers market by moving
players of their own, or simply doing nothing. The Padres have made relievers
Huston Street and Luke Gregerson available, and Gregerson would look awfully
good as a setup man in what has become a terrible Indians bullpen. But in my
mind, buying is the least attractive option for the Indians this season. With
the market shaping up like it is, the prospect currency it would take to add
even one impact arm looks to outweigh the benefit. Detroit isn’t running away
with the division, but they’re a talented club that looks primed to improve
their overall winning % down the stretch, not collapse. So that leaves the team
with the choice to sell or sit pat.

The
Sox are listening to proposals. They turned down a deal involving pitcher
Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals third-highest rated prospect, for shortstop
Alexei Ramirez, according to a scouting source.

Martinez, 21, is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 11 starts at Double-A
Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Martinez, who possesses a fastball in the
high-90s mph range, has struck out 44 hitters in 52 innings.

Leaving the fact that the White Sox must be crazy
not to take that deal, let’s put it in the context of what the Indians could
offer the Cardinals. Yes, we’re back to the possibility that Asdrubal Cabrera
could be dealt to St. Louis to strengthen the most vulnerable part of their
roster. If the Cards were willing to offer Martinez for Ramirez, who hasn’t
posted a OPS+ over 100 since his rookie season back in 2008, what would they be
willing to offer for Asdrubal? Cabrera is coming off of back-to-back all-star
seasons in 2011/12, and while not setting the world on fire this year, his .737
OPS in 2013 far outpaces Ramirez’s .664 figure. Going back to that e-mail from
Pauly, would the Cardinals be willing to part with Martinez, Matt Adams
(blocked at 1B) and another arm for Asdrubal and a lower-level prospect? It
sure seems that way, although we of course don’t know for sure. If that deal is
on the table, I think that Chris Antonetti and company would be crazy to let it
pass by. Martinez is a top-50 prospect who could break in out of the bullpen
this year and assume a role in the starting rotation next season. Adams is
under club control, and could be a long-term solution to the DH/1B woes that
have plagued the Indians for so long. It wouldn’t kill the Indians playoff
hopes this year due to the presence of Mike Aviles, and would really go a long
way towards strengthening next year’s team. If you’re
still not convinced, humor me and read this scouting report on Martinez from
the good folks at Baseball Prospectus:

Martinez has always drawn considerable praise
for his exceptional fastball. He consistently sits in the 94-97 mph range with
his four-seamer and has regularly touched 99 mph in the past. Even his sinking
two-seamer has excellent velocity, sitting in the 92-93 mph range and touching
95 when he wants a little more. Martinez likes to attack with his fastball and
shows the ability to move it around the zone when he doesn’t overthrow. To back
up up his fastball, Martinez offers both a very good curveball and changeup.
His curveball will occasionally work as a plus pitch with tight rotation and
good depth.

As if that weren’t
enough, Martinez’s changeup could be a second legitimate plus-plus offering. He
has tremendous arm speed when throwing it, affording him excellent deception.
Martinez routinely throws strikes with all three pitches and over the last two
seasons has developed his ability to work outside the zone and make the
“pitcher’s pitch.” If the Cardinals decide to keep Martinez in the bullpen long
term, he could become an All-Star-level closer. But many scouts still believe
Martinez has a future as a no. 2 starter in a championship rotation.

With
a core ofJason Kipnis,Carlos Santana,Justin Masterson,Nick SwisherandMichael Bourn, the Indians are close to contending. However,
this probably isn't their year. So while it would be fun if they tried to make
a splash at the deadline, the lack of available upgrades and the fact they are
not quite as good as the Tigers suggests the will (and should) stand pat.

And that article doesn’t even mention the Indians
three young starters who could contribute next year.

Everyone who expected Scott Kazmir to be pitching
effectively for the Indians through August, stand up and be recognized. I was
bullish on Kazmir going into the season, but didn’t expect him to stick in the rotation
for this long. I figured he’d either be injured and on the DL or replaced due
to ineffectiveness. Instead, the 29-year old lefty seems to be getting stronger
as the season goes on. He’s pitching his best baseball of the season of late,
and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in a start since June 15. In his 7 starts
since then, Kazmir has gone 4-3 with a 1.60 ERA, 35 K and 12 BB in 45 innings
pitched. Opposing batters are hitting just .148 against him, and he’s allowed
only 2 HR. Kazmir’s emergence as a consistently reliable option helps the
Indians front office, as they don’t have to make a panic move to acquire a
starting pitcher in a difficult trade market. When the Astros are reportedly
asking for not one, but two “top prospects” in return for Bud Norris, you know
it is not exactly a buyer’s market. Kazmir might just be pricing himself out of
an Indians uniform, as if he can stay healthy and effective he’s in line for a
decent payday this offseason. That was pretty much unfathomable just a year
ago, when he was pitching in the independent leagues.

It’s hard to believe that Danny Salazar’s electric
debut was just over two weeks ago; it feels like an awful lot has happened
since then. Since returning to AAA Columbus, Salazar has allowed a pair of
earned runs in 7 IP, striking out 10(!) without walking a batter. He’s biding
his time with the Clippers, waiting until injury or ineffectiveness necessitates
a return trip up I-71 for the talented young righthander. But it doesn’t have
to be that way. A more effective use for Salazar this season might be out of
the Indians bullpen, especially with the recent struggles of the relief corps
on the North Shore. Salazar could be a dominant, multi-inning force out of the
pen, and even act as a “piggyback” for Ubaldo every 5th day. The Big
U has been somewhat effective of late, but he’s been a 5-and-fly guy who can’t
get through a lineup the third time through the order. If Ubaldo can go five
solid innings and turn it over to Salazar for three, the Indians could have a
sort of two-headed monster at their disposal. Salazar’s already electric stuff
would play up even further in shorter bursts, and it would allow the Indians to
manage his innings coming of Tommy John surgery last year. It would get him
valuable experience pitching in pressure situations against major league
hitters, and allow the Indians to shore up what has become the weakest aspect
of the club this year.

As we discussed going into the all-star break,
Indians top prospect Francisco Lindor was promoted to AA Akron from high-A Carolina.
Lindor has appeared in 11 games with the Aeros as of Friday, and has been nothing
short of sensational. The switch-hitting shortstop is batting a robust
.395/.531/.579 with a HR, one 3B, 2 2B and 6 RBI. He’s walked an impressive 10
times while striking out just once. He’s 5-7 in stolen base attempts, and has
scored 9 runs from the top of the Aeros lineup. When you watch the youngest
player in the Eastern League (turns 20 in November) tear through opposing
pitching like that, it makes it hard to believe that his best tool is his
defense. I don’t expect Lindor to sport a 1.110 OPS at the end of the season,
but watching him dominate AA pitching is a sight to behold. I was lucky enough
to see him twice last week when the Aeros took a road trip to play the Bowie
Baysox, and there’s no doubt that he’s the best player on the field when he
steps between the chalk. Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball America
all rated Lindor as their #5 prospect in all of baseball when their mid-season
rankings were released, and it’s easy to see why. Lindor is a special talent, a
kid who could be an all-star shortstop for many, many years down the road. If
the Indians do end up moving Asdrubal Cabrera, it will be because they have the
talented Lindor waiting in the wings, remarkably ready to move up to the corner
of Carnegie and Ontario as soon as the 2014 season.

Lastly, I’d like to wish former Indians manager Eric
Wedge best wishes and a speedy recovery from his recent health issues. In case
you hadn’t heard, Wedge suffered what was described as a minor stroke earlier
this week when the Indians were in Seattle to take on the Mariners. I don’t
think the words “stroke” and “minor” should really even appear in the same
sentence, as something like that is always serious. At age 45, Wedgie is way
too young to have to worry about things like that, and hopefully the docs can
figure out what’s wrong in a hurry so it doesn’t happen again.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

It’s been a while since we’ve shared a Lazy Sunday
together. It’s been a busy summer, with a perfect storm of work and personal
life conspiring to sap me of nearly all of my free time, so I’ve unfortunately
had precious little chance to write. I hope you’ve missed this column as much
as I’ve missed writing it, and if I had my way there would be 6,000+ words up
here at least once a week. I still have interviews with several minor league
players and coaches to write up as well, and you’ll hopefully be seeing those
again on a regular basis very soon. I’m not one for excuses though, so let’s
jump right into what you actually came here for on this Sunday morning; a look
at our 2nd place Indians leading up to the all-star break.

The most newsworthy item of the past week occurred
early Thursday afternoon, when pitching prospect Danny Salazar turned his major
league debut against the Blue Jays into a 6-inning coming out party. Salazar
threw 5 no-hit innings to begin his major league career and wound up allowing
just one run on two hits through six innings, walking one and striking out
seven. Salazar nearly wound up with a hard-luck no-decision, but the offense
came alive in the bottom of the sixth, plating a pair of runs en route to a 4-2
victory in the series finale against Toronto. I’ve had a front-row seat on the
Danny Salazar bandwagon since he dominated for the Aeros down the stretch last
season after his return from Tommy John surgery. While I can safely say I
expected him to find success last week, I didn’t see that level of dominance
coming.

Salazar was every bit as good as the numbers would
indicate, if not better. Using
the fantastic Brooks Baseball pitchf/x data, let’s go a
little deeper inside Salazar’s gem. He threw 89 pitches in the game, and 64 of
those pitches were strikes. All seven of his strikeouts were of the swinging
variety. Salazar worked primarily off of his fastball, throwing 51 4-seamers
(39 strikes). Of those 51 4-seam fastballs, a whopping 35 were at or above 94
MPH. His AVERAGE fastball velocity was 96.58 MPH. Velocity isn’t everything of
course, but a fastball with that kind of giddyup both allows for greater
freedom within the strike zone and does an excellent job setting up one’s
offspeed pitches. When you look at this strike zone plot of Salazar’s outing,
pay special attention to the yellow squares down and out of the zone. Those are
swings and misses, and they’re on pitches that aren’t particularly close to
being strikes. Hitters have to make their mind up pretty early when looking at
a 96+ MPH fastball, and less time for pitch recognition and selection can
result in hitters offering at some pretty bad pitches.

Interestingly, Salazar threw 26 changeups (19
strikes, 6 of which were swinging) and just 5 sliders. Coming into 2013,
Salazar was seen as having two potential plus pitches in his fastball and
slider. His changeup was a developing offering that he was going to have to
improve upon in order to have a long-term future in a major league rotation. It
appears that Salazar put a lot of work in on his changeup, possibly even at the
expense of his slider, because the change has been getting a much higher grade
this season than his slider. If he can regain the feel for his slider and keep
his changeup diving down and out of the zone, than the Indians will really have
something in the young righty. He was my #6 prospect in the organization coming
into the season and outperformed even that lofty ranking, going 5-5 with a 3.08
ERA, 100 K and 23 BB in 76 innings between AA Akron and AAA Columbus this
season. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in the organization, and if the
Indians are going to make a run at a playoff spot this season, Salazar will
likely be a part of it. He’s not going to pitch like he did on Thursday every
time out, but he has the physical and mental game to succeed at the big league
level right now.

If you’ll allow me a brief umpire tangent; the first
hit (and only run) allowed by Salazar never should have occurred. Leading off
the 6th inning, Toronto backstop Josh Thole fell behind 0-2 after
chasing a changeup down in the dirt. On pitch 3, Salazar came back with another
change that fooled Thole, and it crossed the plate pretty much right down the
middle, thigh high. It was called a ball. Again using the Brooks Baseball chart
below, you’ll see what I’m talking about; pitch #3 is a green square,
indicating that it was inexplicably called a ball by home plate umpire Tony
Randazzo. As usually happens, Thole singled later in the at bat and eventually
came around to score on Jose Bautista’s RBI double.

By no means am I saying that Randazzo was out to get
the Indians, or Salazar in particular. It’s just an example of the myriad of
issues that have plagued MLB umpires all season long. The strikezone shrinks
when the count is 0-2, and expands when it’s 3-0. It drove me crazy as a
player, and continues to drive me crazy as a fan. A gift 3-0 strike allowing a
pitcher back into an at bat can completely change the dynamic of an inning, and
a 0-2 gift to the hitter can result in the pitcher losing a no-hitter, shutout,
and possibly the game. That’s the beauty of baseball; every pitch fits in to
the greater story of the game, and none is less important than any other. Umpires
consistently changing the strike zone based on the count makes for a
frustrating game to play and watch. It cost Salazar and the Indians on
Thursday, and could have meant the game if the offense didn’t pick things up in
the bottom half of the 6th. Rant over, and thanks for bearing with
me there.

The calendar tells us that we’re pretty much halfway
through the month of July, which means that the non-wavier trading deadline is
less than three weeks away. The Indians look to be in a similar position as the
one they found themselves in back in 2011; close enough to contend, but a team
that is likely ultimately too flawed to go deep in the postseason even if they
make it past the Tigers for the Central Division crown. We all know what
happened in 2011 though, as GM Chris Antonetti pushed all of his chips into the
center of the table in a deal for Colorado Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez.
Antonetti is faced with a similar quandary here in 2013, as the starting
rotation for the 2nd place Tribe has been up and down as expected,
and the bullpen has been surprisingly ineffective. We’re already hearing names
like Matt Garza (who would be a ½ season rental) and Yovanni Gallardo (who has
Cleveland on his no-trade list) getting thrown around as potentially helping to
round out the inconsistent rotation. But
ESPN’s Buster Olney threw out another interesting name in his (insider
required) column on Friday; shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera.
While the Indians are far too close to 1st place to wave the white
flag, Cabrera remains an attractive candidate to move at or before the trading
deadline. Olney reports that both the Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals have
inquired about Cabrera, and you’d have to think that Antonetti would listen
should either club make an attractive offer that includes a high-end, close to
MLB ready pitching prospect. I’ll let Olney explain:

Sources
say there has been more discussion about a possible swap that was talked about
in the offseason: the Indians’Asdrubal Cabrerato St. Louis.

It’s unclear just how far advanced these talks
are, whether it’s more conceptual or internal at the moment, and undoubtedly,
it’s a deal that would be more easily done in the offseason, with more time.

But it’s a situation worth watching, because it
could be an in-season match that could make sense for both teams. For St.
Louis, Cabrera would represent an upgrade at shortstop: He’s 27 years old and a
switch-hitting, two-time All-Star with power and experience. Cabrera has a .725
OPS and has demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions, which is why
the Yankees have asked about him repeatedly. He could play shortstop, yes, but
also third base or second or even first, so if the Yankees needed to fill in
forDerek Jeteror Alex RodriguezorRobinson Cano-- depending on developments ranging from injury
(Jeter and A-Rod) to PED suspension (A-Rod) to free-agent departure (Cano,
perhaps), Cabrera could step in. Cabrera makes $6.5 million this year, and will
earn $10 million next season, before becoming eligible for free agency.

Cabrera would be replaced by Mike Aviles in the
short term, and Francisco Lindor (more on him later) in the long-term. The
Indians impressive organizational depth at shortstop (and lack of impact SP
prospects) would allow for the deal to take place without the team taking a
significant step back in terms of playoff contention for 2013-15. Cabrera has a
pair of all-star selections to his credit, but we are all very familiar with
his lack of 2nd half production and tendency to…have priorities
other than conditioning. He’s as good as gone after 2014 anyway, as there’s
pretty much no chance the Indians pay him $10 million or more a year with a guy
like Lindor waiting in the wings. It would be a trade that doesn’t follow the
“all-in” Ubaldo deal in 2011, nor would it be raising the white flag on the
2013 season because of the ability for Mike Aviles to step in and play a
serviceable shortstop on a daily basis until Lindor is ready. Juan Diaz would
be recalled from Columbus to play Aviles’ utility infielder role, and that
would be a step down in terms of production there. But if the Indians are
offered a legitimate future front of the rotation starting pitcher in return
for 1 ½ seasons of Asdrubal Cabrera, I can’t see turning that down because of a
downgrade in your backup SS. I’m not advocating dumping Cabrera for 75 cents on
the dollar, but if the prospect-rich Cardinals make the Indians an offer that
contains pitcher Carlos Martinez plus another arm, I’m certainly considering it
if I’m Chris Antonetti.

The Tribe entered play on Thursday ranked fifth in the majors
in runs scored and sixth in True Average, a considerable improvement from last
year, when Cleveland placed 22nd and 18th, respectively, in those categories.
The Indians’ fielding also has been markedly better this year than it was in
2012, enough to bump their park-adjusted defensive efficiency up from 24th to
12th in the league.

As we all expected, the free agent signings and
trades did a great job shoring up the offense, allowing the Indians to jump
into the top echelon in baseball in both runs scored and TAv. Nick Swisher hasn’t
set the world on fire, but he’s still managed a 118 OPS+ in an injury-effected
1st half. Mark Reynolds has been downright terrible of late, but he carried
the offense in April when other guys in the lineup were struggling, and no
matter what he does this season it will be more than Casey Kotchman contributed
last year. Michael Bourn has been pretty much as advertised at the top of the
lineup. And just as important as the offensive contributions, having Bourn,
Stubbs, Aviles and Swisher in the field has allowed the Indians to work their
way from near the bottom to the top half of the league defensively. Last year’s
Indians were succeeding despite being outscored by their opponents, doing it
more with smoke and mirrors than anything else. The epic collapse after the
Verlander game was disappointing, but not completely shocking. This year, the
Indians have outscored their opponents by 21 runs going into Saturday, a number
more commensurate with their 49-44 record. This team doesn’t just have a better
record, but they’re better on the field (if that makes sense).

But despite the improvements in the lineup and in
the field, the pitching has been disappointing, both the starters and the
bullpen. The Indians team ERA ranks 27th in the league at 4.38, a
number that has to come down if the club expects to contend for a playoff spot.
The major move this offseason to address the pitching staff has proved
ineffective, as Brett Myers has been injured and extremely homer-prone when he
was on the mound. I’m just not sure the pitching staff as a whole is good
enough for the Indians to win a playoff series, even if they do manage to make
it past the Tigers. So a move to shore up the starting rotation for next
season, even if it costs the Indians Asdrubal Cabrera, could set the Indians up
for the 2014 season. If next year’s rotation options include Masterson, Kluber,
McAllister, Salazar, Bauer, Carrasco and a high-level prospect or two obtained
from a Cabrera trade, I feel pretty good about the 2014 Cleveland Indians and
their chances for a deep playoff run.

Speaking of Lindor, get your DVR’s ready, because
you’re going to have a chance to see the talented young shortstop on national
TV this weekend when the MLB Futures Game is aired on Sunday (2pm, ESPN2).
Lindor will be representing the Indians and his native Puerto Rico on the World
Team for the 2nd time, and for some Tribe fans it will be the first
chance to see the #1 prospect in the organization in action. Lindor enters the
game as a consensus top-10 prospect, as he’s the #4 player in Baseball
Prospectus’ midseason rankings, and #5 in Baseball America’s list. Keith Law
doesn’t release his midseason top prospects list until next week,
but he lists Lindor as having the best hit tool in the Futures Game, and one of
the best gloves. I had a chance to interview Lindor
earlier this season, and came away extremely impressed with the 19-year old
switch hitter. He’s an incredibly gifted fielder, a better hitter than he gets
credit for (3rd in the Carolina League in hitting) and a mature
leader on and off the field. He’s hitting .306/.373/.410, has 20 stolen bases,
and his glove is better than his bat or his legs. The .306 average is 3rd
in the Carolina League, trailing only teammate Joey Wendle and Red Sox prospect
Garin Cecchini (who was promoted to AA a couple of weeks ago). The Indians
announced that Lindor will be promoted to AA Akron following the Future’s Game,
so Cleveland-based fans will have a chance to see him live and in person soon
enough. Watching him on the field, it’s tough to remember that he’ll play the
entire season as a19-year old. #LindorBC

While we’re talking prospects, I’d be remiss to not
bring up the Indians most recent 1st round draft pick, OF Clint Frazier.
Frazier signed quickly and for slightly below slot, accepting a $3.5 million
bonus when the Indians were allotted $3.787 million for the pick. He seemed genuinely
eager to get the contract negotiations out of the way and get back out on the
baseball diamond. He reported to the Indians Goodyear complex to play with the
Arizona League Indians, and promptly hit a home run in his first professional
at bat. Small sample size of course, but the 18-year old Frazier is hitting
.327/.357/.571 with a HR, 3 triples, 3 doubles and 14 RBI in 13 AZL contests.
Just for comparison’s sake, 19-year old D’Vone McClure, the Indians 4th
round pick in last year’s draft, is hitting just .197/.269/.262 in 15 games,
and he came into this season with 24 AZL games under his belt. That’s not to
pick on McClure, who is a talented player, but more to show that AZL success is
far from assured from high draft picks. So while it’s a small sample from
Frazier, it’s an encouraging sample, and I’d expect to see him in Mahoning
Valley or even Lake County before the end of the 2013 season. He’ll be easy to
spot on the diamond; just look for the kid who looks like former University of
Wisconsin basketball player Mike Bruesewitz.

Finally, on a fun note, Scott
Lewis over at The Score blog put together an oral history of the 1989 Cleveland
Indians for your reading pleasure. No, not the 73-89 Indians that finished
in 6th place in the AL East, but the fictional 1989 Indians from the
classic comedy Major League. Reading Charlie
Donovan, Lou Brown and Harry Doyle (among others) “reminisce” about the Indians
miracle run to the 1989 playoffs was a lot of fun for me, especially having
seen the movie as many times as I have. Pretty much any kid growing up in
Cleveland in the ‘90s has seen the movie at least once, and if you were anything
like me and my friends, you’ve seen it close to 100 times. It’s a fun piece to
read heading into the all-star break as we wonder if this year’s Indians have a
similar run in them…