Remi - I am not going in 2012. That is my plan - I am one of the 11%. I exist.

I have been going to Burning Man since 1995. I am under no delusion that BMLLC will change from it's ridiculous new ticket system. But, it would be stupid to leave something I love so much without voicing my objections to the changes that made me decide to leave it. If you want to call it whining then that's your own uninformed opinion. I am not whining. What I am doing is ceasing to volunteer for an organization that has little appreciation of me and my efforts and the significant amount of my annual income that I use to make their event that much more fun (seems reasonable).

I think some of the 11% will end up going (I might even if a long-shot diabolical plan comes together), but I think it's safe to assume they are being as truthful as anyone else right now. There is still time for minds to change.

Oh, and our camp had also talked about everyone going for two tiers for at least two tickets each to try and make sure the whole camp would get tickets. I think that will be a much used strategy, and is one of the nightmare aspects I will not be participating in.

Hoarding is a bigger concern than scalping, in my opinion. Of course, it was a bigger concern under the way tickets had been sold for the 2011 event (ticket limits were higher, plus first come first served enabled camps and individuals with greater resources to grab additional tickets). Sorry to hear you won't be going.

Agreed. I think hoarding will be a huge, unintended issue. Our camp of 25 would have to hoard. I think most theme camps will feel the need to hoard to make sure their people get in. Those that don't will not get all their people in.

No, they don't have to hoard. For what it's worth, I think your camp's in GREAT financial shape if you've got 25 members that can easily afford to double up on tickets. I don't think most camps' members are in that kind of financial shape, and I think most people posting/boasting about their plans to double, triple, and even quadruple purchase just to make sure they have tickets secured are just talking. For most of us, I think that's an awful lot of money to tie up for an awful long time. And, when you think about it, that only contributes to the scarcity problem to begin with (and there's just something fucked up about playing the part of a good burner while at the same time fucking other burners out of a chance to get a ticket).

Of course, if people really wanted to show people what they thought of the lottery, they'd abstain completely and wait for the secondary sale in March (if their numbers are as large as they claim, that would mean there'd be thousands of unsold tickets from the main sale that would be rolled over and added to the 10K tickets in that pool). It's an open sale (no drawing), and though the tickets will be at the highest tier so were tickets bought in March for the 2011 event.

Hopefully those who do the hoarding thing make an effort to keep their extras within the community and resist the temptation to get greedy and scalp them. I think the coming ticket resale system will make it easier for people to do the right thing, and provide additional opportunities for burners who weren't able to participate in the main or secondary sales to get a ticket at a fair price.

While hoarding may be an unintentional by-product of any in demand sellout situation type ticket, I would much rather that actual "burners" rather than scalpers be doing it. At least we have a marginal chance of tickets being re-sold for face value.

FWIW, I don't think that simply because a random selection program has been instilled that it automatically creates hoarding. The fact is that we are now dealing with an event where more people want to go than there are tickets.. and that in and of itself brings panic and irrational behavior like we've seen *cough* lately.

This Woman wrote:Remi - I am not going in 2012. That is my plan - I am one of the 11%. I exist.

I have been going to Burning Man since 1995. I am under no delusion that BMLLC will change from it's ridiculous new ticket system. But, it would be stupid to leave something I love so much without voicing my objections to the changes that made me decide to leave it. If you want to call it whining then that's your own uninformed opinion. I am not whining. What I am doing is ceasing to volunteer for an organization that has little appreciation of me and my efforts and the significant amount of my annual income that I use to make their event that much more fun (seems reasonable).

I think some of the 11% will end up going (I might even if a long-shot diabolical plan comes together), but I think it's safe to assume they are being as truthful as anyone else right now. There is still time for minds to change.

We discussed two tickets for two tiers, but we are not doing it and we couldn’t afford it. I thought maybe you’d read a post I put in another thread…Financially, we are pretty good, I suspect, but not that good. About a third has throw away income and about a third can pull it off with intense plans/budgets and the last third has only ever made it by force of will and could never afford the current set up.

If we did hoard it would set up a scenario where the moneyed in camp would pay for the tickets and sell whatever extras and the non-moneyed would be beholden to the moneyed until they could pay them for their tickets. That would be a social nightmare for all parties.

I agree that abstaining is the best thing for those of us who find it so objectionable, and hence the other plans for me.

A lottery to individuals would not automatically create hoarding, but theme camps have to have some reasonable assurance that their working members will be there to work, and they generally need to know this earlier than later.

Burning Man sold out once. What I think is irrational is changing a self reliant process like First Come First Serve using one single sell out as the reasoning. Concerts sell out all the time. Big deal. If I don’t get a ticket in time it’s my own damn fault. Why would BMLLC even want to shoulder the blame of everyone who is not going to get a ticket now (rhetorical jest)?

Hey guys, it doesn't seem to say anywhere what tier(s) you will be entered into if you register for pre-sale but don't get it and are then automatically put into the main sale. It just says that you will be put into the main sale. Does that mean all three tiers, or just the top tier? Unless I'm missing that info somewhere...!!! THANK YOU!

junglesmacks wrote:While hoarding may be an unintentional by-product of any in demand sellout situation type ticket, I would much rather that actual "burners" rather than scalpers be doing it. At least we have a marginal chance of tickets being re-sold for face value.

Agreed. We have a situation where not only buyers but sellers are more inclined to be on the level.

Buyers obviously want face value, and are likely to be vocal about it (in a way they would never even try with other kinds of event tickets).

Sellers are likely to be either outright excited about making a fellow Burner's day, or simply too ashamed to scalp.

nichuie2 wrote:Hey guys, it doesn't seem to say anywhere what tier(s) you will be entered into if you register for pre-sale but don't get it and are then automatically put into the main sale. It just says that you will be put into the main sale. Does that mean all three tiers, or just the top tier? Unless I'm missing that info somewhere...!!! THANK YOU!

If you registered for 3 tickets in the pre-sale but are not successful, your info will carry forward to the main sale, at tier 3. That sale has a limit of 2 tickets, if you are successful in one of the drawings in the main sale you will only receive 2 tickets. On 2) the drawing will pull regstrants, who are then awarded tickets. If you enter for 3 in the pre-sale and are drawn, you would get 3 tickets (since the limit on the pre-sale is 4). If you register for 3 in the pre-sale and do not get tickets but DO get tickets in the main sale, you would get 2 tickets (since the limit on tickets in the main sale is 2). On your follow-up question, yes the ticket vendor is InTicketing. The pre-sale winners should be notified and charged by 12/19/11, and the main sale winners should be notified and charged on or before February 1, 2012.

and

you'd be entered at tier 3, which is inclusive of the lower tiers. You would only be charged for the tier you were awarded tickets.

Assume: Distribution has happened. As has a sellout. It's early July, and people are scrambling to sell their extra tickets, and others are scrambling to buy those extra tickets.

Burners are all conditioned to sell at face value. They start pushing them out onto CL, and other local sources. Scalpers show up with cash in hand, buy the ticket and then turn around and post an ad on CL.

It happens outside of concert/sports venues in real time. "Extra tickets? Extras?" These guys purchase, and then swivel a half step and sell the ticket for more than they bought it for.

ANECDOTAL: There's a guy who has posted in PDX Burner forums that he's going to not take part in the main/secondary sales, but then buy second hand, and then BEAT UP the scalper.

Now... I'm not CONDONING that course of action, but I had the thought in the back of my head, that it would be funny if there was this persistant myth Boogey Man of a Burner just WAITING to take the stuffing out of someone selling a ticket for more than ticket price.

Nipple wrote:I worry that is where the scalpers are really going to show up.

Assume: Distribution has happened. As has a sellout. It's early July, and people are scrambling to sell their extra tickets, and others are scrambling to buy those extra tickets.

Burners are all conditioned to sell at face value. They start pushing them out onto CL, and other local sources. Scalpers show up with cash in hand, buy the ticket and then turn around and post an ad on CL.

It happens outside of concert/sports venues in real time. "Extra tickets? Extras?" These guys purchase, and then swivel a half step and sell the ticket for more than they bought it for.

ANECDOTAL: There's a guy who has posted in PDX Burner forums that he's going to not take part in the main/secondary sales, but then buy second hand, and then BEAT UP the scalper.

Now... I'm not CONDONING that course of action, but I had the thought in the back of my head, that it would be funny if there was this persistant myth Boogey Man of a Burner just WAITING to take the stuffing out of someone selling a ticket for more than ticket price.

Then I picture guns and dumb stuff, and it isn't funny any more.

Why do I ruin everthing...

I figure come July the dust will be pretty much settled.. Not a lot (but some) for scalper to get there moneys worth..

I'm sorry for being the voice of rational economics, but I have to say that it is more than a touch delusional to believe that people will not act in their own economic best interests. The lottery is a crap idea. Sorry.Yes, BM sold out last year. Now, the event will create a buzz about the general lack of availability of tickets. What do you think will happen?

I appreciate the difficult position that BM is in to provide a "fair" system. My concern is not that they haven't thought enough about what is fair. It's that they haven't thought enough about what is actually going to happen. The truth of the matter is that people with more economic resources will simply sign up to buy more tickets if they can. Burners are not stupid. They will find ways around any controls and filters BMORG puts in place to prevent hoarding. They will not do that because they are greedy, or because they are conniving. They will do it because they want their damned ticket, like everyone else.

I think it is ridiculous to try to introduce all these market distortions, thinking that they will solve some perceived problem. Look, BM is an amazing, life changing experience. And the truth is that there have always been high barriers to entry. That's what makes it special- people really have to want to be there. Has anyone been to a Rainbow Gathering? How much incredible art did you see there?

Finally, there is some notion that people will somehow not sign up for more tickets than they "need" due to the costs involved. If you have enough money to go to BM, you have enough to try for a few extra "insurance" tickets. End of story.

jafaar wrote:If you have enough money to go to BM, you have enough to try for a few extra "insurance" tickets. End of story.

Turns out there's a whole 'nother chapter that you didn't read. Several, in fact. There are people who manage on a shoe string. They may or may not get one of the low priced tickets, but that's always been a crap shoot.

The Lady with a Lamprey

"The powerful are exploiting people, art and ideas, and this leads to us plebes debating how to best ration ice.Man, no wonder they always win....." Lonesomebri

jafaar wrote:I'm sorry for being the voice of rational economics, but I have to say that it is more than a touch delusional to believe that people will not act in their own economic best interests.

People act against their own economic best interests all the time. Several presidential elections come to mind.

More than "economic best interests" goes into decision-making. Over the past few weeks we have seen people display additional factors that go into their decision-making, such as greed, faith, altruism, curiosity, anger, excitement, guilt, fear, opportunity, petulance, social ties, derring-do, tolerance for risk (in either direction--ticketlessness, vs. entering into monetary transactions with friends) . . .

I will not be maximizing my ticket-buying potential, for example. I don't really want to end up with four $420 tickets. It's a hassle. I don't want to procure for three friends and then worry about insured delivery or reassigning names at Will Call with each new arrival, or ending up with 16 tickets between four of us, should we all win, or selling safely to Burner strangers if I must, and somehow avoiding a sale to secret scalpers. (And there are various other considerations, at length.) Could I find homes for 4 tickets? Of course--with friends who aren't holding out to try their luck in the main sale . . . although again, I think most of them want a chance at a $240 or less.

If there's a lot of hoarding (overparticipation in the lottery) the result will be interesting. It will mean a lot more people don't get tickets in the lottery, but instead get them in the aftermarket from the hoarders.

That means a larger aftermarket than normal (much larger than in the past.) A large aftermarket will be split into people selling at face value or variations, people selling at market value, and scalpers who got lottery tickets or who bought from people selling at face value, then selling at market value.

A larger market means the price will go down since the supply is large. Your chance of finding a ticket will increase, especially if you will pay market value, but even if you scramble to find a face value ticket.

So oddly, if you leave out the scalping effect, you get what people said they wanted, that tickets go to the people who are willing to try hardest to get them, though also to people willing to spend the money.

danibel wrote:I am kind of surprised at the 5 that are not going now. Are those 5 people really not going? Or is someone checking that box to try to make a point? And if that is the case - what is the point?

Ummm, I'm really not going. Not that I really like the thought of it. Though it will allow me to put forth more energy into our regional burn. I've got a friend who has been out there the last 10 yrs, we've talked about driving out together for 4th of Juplaya.

We'll see.

Excuse me Ma'am, your going to feel a small prick._______________________________________

One thing that surprises me is that many folks have selected the somewhat irrational "I will enter at $320, then try the post-sale if I lose." The reason it is somewhat irrational is that, as far as we know, if you enter at $390 it's the same as entering at $320 but also participating in the final $390 only round. If you're willing to enter the $390 post-sale, you should definitely be ready to enter the main sale at $390. (This is not true if the org decides it wants to favour people who said only $320 and below when doing the $320 round.)

The one difference is you get some time to think about it. You enter at $320, and you hope you get a $320 or $240, and then you have to decide how much you want to go and enter the post-sale if you can afford it. This seems like a minor difference but practice shows that people do have trouble making their mind up ahead of time, or of figuring out their true desire.

The way I tell people to figure out their true desire is to play out both options in their minds. You should ask yourself if you enter at $320 and LOSE that you will be happy that you lost. In the sense that you feel you are happier having $390 in your pocket than a ticket. The right price for you is the price at which you will be both happy if you win (and get a ticket for a price you can afford) AND happy if you lose (ie. you would be unhappy having spent a higher amount for a ticket.)

This is also the price you are supposed to bid in things like eBay auctions, and general 2nd price auctions. It gets much harder for people when it's continuous, because nobody is really willing to say that they are happy they won at $320 and happy they lost at $321. Our brains want a bigger increment from that. This is one reason people get so upset at eBay auctions sometimes, because if you are the 2nd highest bidder on eBay, the winner gets the item for your bid plus $1, not for their actual bid which was normally much higher. People all go "damn, of course I would have paid mybid + $1" though they don't realize that was not actually an option.

My plan is no different this year than last year. Hit the system with 6 or more internet devices to increase my odds and pick the lowest price ticket. If that does not work I wait til july and try to pick up a teir 1 or 2 ticket. I'm sure I won't be the only one slamming the system with laptops desktop and smart phones. I'm the only income for a family of 5 I may not be low income but I don't have much money to spare.

jerroc wrote:My plan is no different this year than last year. Hit the system with 6 or more internet devices to increase my odds and pick the lowest price ticket. If that does not work I wait til july and try to pick up a teir 1 or 2 ticket. I'm sure I won't be the only one slamming the system with laptops desktop and smart phones. I'm the only income for a family of 5 I may not be low income but I don't have much money to spare.

This post makes no sense. You do realize that the ticketing system has been changed this year, right?