From Iraq-Syria to Africa, expert warns about ISIS expansion

London, Al-Bawaba – An expert on counter terrorism & organized crime in the UK and Africa, published a new study warns that more ISIS ( Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; a designated terrorist organization) members will flee Iraq and Syria to stay and actively work in African countries.

David Otto expects that the new key trends of global terrorism in 2017 may likely slide further towards Africa despite efforts by regional bodies including the Multinational Joint Task force (Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon , Benin) to destabilize groups like Boko Haram- AQIM and Al- Shabaab within their region.

In his newly published study, he emphasized the likelihood of increased practical collaboration between ISIL and Al- Qaeda in Africa. The need to raise funds for sustenance , train militants , share intelligence and exchange fighters could override obvious strategic differences.

Analyzing events in 2016, the most common targets will remain soft and crowded areas – airports, stadia, Market places/malls , hotels ( mostly those attracting western visitors ) restaurants , places of worship, Cinemas, and other social gatherings. Hard targets including police stations, army barracks, critical infrastructures could occasionally be targeted for strategic reasons rather than to cause massive casualties.
One of the tactics that is would likely used by these elements, is” suicide bombing” using improvised explosive devices-IEDs – and vehicular Improvised explosive devices- VIEDs – is the most common tactics along side occasional weapon assault on unsuspecting hard targets. As with a possible increase in cyber attacks, there is a likelihood of terrorist using chemical or biological weapons if they become really desperate.
The expert predicted also that “Lone wolves”, individuals, young and vulnerable women are most likely to be used for suicide bombings although young men are equally at high risks.

David Otto is the Founding Director of TGS Intelligence Consultants Ltd and the Founder of the Conflict Resolution Programme – Step In Step Out (SISO) based in the United Kingdom. He is also Senior Counter Terrorism Advisor for Global Risk International. David’s Work focuses on political Instability, Counter Terrorism and Organised Crime – from vulnerabilities –radicalisation – extremism – violent extremism and counter narrative awareness solutions between the West and Africa dynamics.