Continuing the final part 🙂

Sumit’s colleague, Ankit, who is 30 years old, commences his retirement planning at the same time. Given that he also aims to retire at the age of 60 years, he has an investment horizon of 30 years. Assuming, like Sumit, he invests Rs 50,000 every month @ 10% per annum, he will accumulate Rs 11.30 crore at retirement. On the same lines, Piyush, Sumit’s other colleague, commences investing at the age of 35 with an investment horizon of 25 years to accumulate Rs 6.63 crore at the age of 60 years (at Rs 50,000 per month @ 10% per annum).

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Given that all three of them have the same monthly investment (Rs 50,000), which is invested at the same rate (10% per annum), the difference can be attributed completely to Sumit’s early start vis-à-vis his colleagues. Ankit who has an investment tenure that is lower than Sumit’s by only 5 years accumulates a corpus that is nearly 40% lower than Sumit’s. Piyush, whose investment tenure is lower than Sumit’s by 10 years, accumulates approx 65% lower than him on retirement. A 5-Yr delay in retirement planning sounds like a small difference, but the power of compounding magnifies it to gigantic proportions.

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CHALK OUT YOUR CORPUS 🙂

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You’ll have to keep a realistic goal that you can realise in the time you have. Don’t expect that the zeroes will multiply automatically in your savings. See how much you can afford to save every month. Of course, if you start at a late age you will have to increase your savings substantially, so cut down on any superfluous expenses.

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Prepare a budget which lists what you spend on necessities so that you know how much your monthly/annual expenditure will be in the future. Account for inflation too. Keep a rough estimate of 7-8% inflation every year. Also, consider expenses that are bound to increase, such as medical and transport expenses. Then again, calculate the expenses that may cease to exist, such as your children’s education.

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DON’T TOUCH THOSE SAVINGS

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More often than not, people have combined savings, that is, they save money for all their financial goals together— retirement, children’s education, their marriage, buying a home, etc. Invariably, you spend more on your initial financial goal and end up depleting your savings. By the time you retire, you have barely any money left. Overcome this obstacle.

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Build your retirement corpus separately, and do not touch it. It’s always better to earmark the time period for your goals and make separate portfolios for each of these goals. For instance, your children’s education may be a short-term goal (compared with retirement, that is). Since retirement is a long-term goal, if you are starting early you can afford to take risks and invest primarily in equities. But if retirement is a short-term goal, that is, only 5 years away, you won’t be able to take any risks. You’ll be more concerned about security. In that case, invest primarily in debt instruments.

MAKE A PLAN

Before you embark on saving for retirement, you must have a plan in place. While a plan may sound fancy and even intimidating, rest assured it is not all that complicated. Your retirement plan is simply your wish list of how you wish to spend your twilight years. Among other expenses, when you plan for retirement, you must make it a point to set aside money for medical expenses and contingencies, as any retirement plan without them is incomplete.

While you have to decide how you wish to lead your life in retirement, your financial planner will help you translate that dream in numbers. He will put a number to everything i.e. your dream house, vehicle, post-retirement income, medical expenses and contingencies among other inputs. He will tell you how much you need to save and where to invest your savings so as to achieve your retirement corpus. In other words, he will outline a roadmap and more importantly, will implement the same for you.

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TRACK AND REVIEW YOUR PLAN

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Once the plan is outlined and implemented you have to still ensure that you are on track at all times to meet your targeted return at the desired level of risk. This calls for a periodic review of your investment plan. Over time as you approach retirement; reduce allocation to risky assets like stocks and/or equity funds in favour of more conservative avenues like fixed deposits.

The future is closer than you think. Pick targets early and give them the right kind of support to take control of those golden years.

Here we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and latest global business and industry updates.

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Markets continued to build on the gains that came in the post budget week. Investors seem to have overcome the worry factors like domestic fiscal deficit & concerns over Euro Zone.

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Even the sudden burst of buying by the foreign institutional investors reflects the confidence in the domestic economy. Food price index rose 17.87% in the 12 months to 20 February 2010, faster than the annual rise of 17.58% in the previous week but is expected to come down on the likelihood of good harvest going ahead.

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On the external economy front, India’s imports posted a strong growth for the second month running in January, signaling a pickup in domestic demand and investment. Non-oil imports registered a growth of 28.8% in January, while oil imports were up 56% from the year ago period.

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Exports jumped for a third straight month in January, rising 11.5 per cent from a year earlier as demand picked up in the United States and other major overseas markets.

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The data cheered the markets & eased some concerns over the optimistic economic growth outlook that came after the third quarter GDP numbers showing growth of 6%. In the nine months to December Indian economy has expanded by 6.7% & in order to meet the CSO expected growth of 7.2% in the current fiscal, it should grow by 8.8% in the last quarter ending March 2010.

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Going forward markets are expected to trade in line with the global markets & will keep a close eye on the IIP numbers that are scheduled to be announced in the coming week. However markets may face liquidity pressure with approximately 22,000 crore going out from the banking system last week & another 12,000 crore expected to go out by the week ending 13th march as a result of hike in Cash reserve ratio by 75 bps by RBI.

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Another liquidity squeeze would be from the corporate in the system as the last tranche of Advance tax is approaching i.e. 15th March. Above all the expected rush of new & follow on public offering in the near term is expected to put a continuous pressure on the liquidity front.

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The week gone by saw one of the strongest rallies in stock markets across the world which goes to show that bulls are still strong and a lot of money lying in the sidelines enters the market at every fall. Trend of Nifty and Sensex is bullish and Nifty has support between 5030-4950 and Sensex between 16700- 16400 levels. The dollar index is finding a strong resistance between 80-81 levels and if it does not cross this strongly then the rally is expected to continue.

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Commodities rose on benefits of doubt as dollar index is witnessing see saw movements amid some improvement in economic releases. However, there is still some uneasiness, regarding the health of European countries, including Spain. In metals and energy, things look balanced right now. These commodities are expected to trade in a range.

Story of agro commodities is little different.

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Despite fragile outlook, most of commodities prices soared on support at lower level buying and domestic as well as overseas demand.

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Cautious trading is advisable here, especially in spices as they have already witnessed significant upside in last few trading sessions.

·Finance minsterreaffirms commitment to introduce GST along with DTC in April, 2011. 🙂

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·A Nutrient Based Subsidy policy for the fertiliser sector has since been approved by the Government and will become effective from April 1, 2010.

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·To extend the green revolution to the eastern region of the country & propose to provide Rs.400 crore for this initiative.

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·Propose to organize 60,000 “pulses and oil seed villages” in rain-fed areas during 2010-11 and provide an integrated intervention for water harvesting, watershed management and soil health, to enhance the productivity of the dry land farming areas.

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·Propose an allocation of Rs.200 crore for launching this climate resilient agriculture initiative.

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·FCI has been hiring godowns from private parties for a guaranteed period of 5 years. This period is now being extended to 7 years.

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·Targets set for agriculture credit flow has been raised to Rs.3,75,000 crore from Rs.3,25,000 crore in the current year.

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·Propose to extend by six months the period for repayment of the loan amount by farmers from December 31, 2009 to June 30, 2010.

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·Provided an additional one per cent interest subvention as an incentive to those farmers who repay their short term crop loans as per schedule.

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·External Commercial Borrowings will henceforth be available for cold storage or cold room facility.

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·Customs duty on silver raised to 1,500 rupees from 1,000 rupees per kg.

Continuing The Final Part Of The Budget Preview 🙂

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We believe that this year Finance Minister will take a gradual move towards fiscal consolidation by increase in Excise duty. Excise duty forms around 40% of Indirect Tax collections. Excise duty collections were down by 13% in April to December period to close to Rs. 70,000 crore comprising around 66% of Budgeted Estimates of Rs. 1,06,477 crore. The factors that contribute to our belief are; 😀

·Though the growth in corporate sales is not astonishing but profitability has improved to due to various cost control efforts which is quite evident by the corporate tax collection that have shown a growth of 44% in December 2009. Cumulatively Net direct tax collections increased by 8.5 per cent during April- December 2009.

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·India being a consumption story has shown healthy growth in sales of consumer durables. For instance Automobile industry’s sales went up by 32 per cent in December over the same month in 2009. It is believed that a gradual hike in duty will get absorbed without affecting medium term prospects of the industry.

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·Partial rollback would also help the finance ministry effect a calibrated integration of excise duty with the services tax by the end of the next financial year, when the proposal for a Goods and Services Tax is likely to be implemented.

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·Finance Minister had indicated that he would like the fiscal deficit for 2010-11 to be around 5.5 per cent of GDP. The proposal to raise excise duty by two hundred basis points is being endorsed also to help the finance ministry raise more revenue and stick to the projected fiscal deficit target.

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Disinvestment would be the key focal point in the Budget. We believe that the Finance Minister would place high targets from the PSU sale proceeds.The factors that contribute to our belief are:

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·In order to bring Fiscal deficit under control that would subsequently ease upward pressure on interest rates.

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·This will help Investment in social sector projects which promote education, health care and employment & will also help in Capital investment.

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On the Corporate Tax front, we believe that the Finance Minster is unlikely to lower tax to 25% from the current 30% as per Industry demands. The rationale behind our belief is:

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·The direct tax code that proposes corporate tax to be 25% will be implemented in fiscal 2011 – 2012 & Industry have to wait till its implementation as it will replace the existing Income Tax act.

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·Already, government is trying to make up more tax revenue & is unlikely to take step in this direction as it may come as an obstacle in order to control fiscal deficit.

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On deregulation of Petroleum sector, we believe that in order to cut down on subsidies government could provide the road map for partial deregulation of the petroleum sector. The road map may provide OMC’s to review the prices of petrol and diesel on a regular basis however, LPG and kerosene could continue to be administered by the government. Factors that complement to our belief:

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·In view of the commitment of the UPA regime to flagship social security programmes that require huge allocations, Mr. Mukherjee has told Mr. Deora that it would not be possible to provide huge subsidies to the OMCs in future.

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·On the External Economy side, we expect that the Finance Minister may continue to provide certain concessions like interest subsidy and extension of other export oriented schemes. The rationale to our belief:

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·In the recent two months i.e. November & December, merchandise exports registered a positive growth of 18.2% & 9.3% respectively. But in the period of April to December 2009, the exports were still negative to the tune of 20% as compared to the corresponding period.

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·The world economic recovery especially in US & Europe is still questionable & the regions constitute approximately 15% & 21% respectively of our merchandise exports, thus directly affecting the trade.

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·Sectors such as engineering goods, jute, carpets, handicrafts and leather goods are continue to be in bad shape, others such as gems & jewelry drugs, plastics and petroleum products are showing improvement.

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·Concluding, the main point is that it may not be a good time to take back the stimulus so soon that may derail the recovery.

At last the much talked topic “BUDGET” among AAM ADMI, CORPORATES or INVESTORS that comes to INDIA – is approaching. “The million dollar question is that will 2010 budget be another year to cheer the economy by giving some relief in indirect taxes, personal income tax and by implementing various schemes to induce social & infrastructure sector in order to maintain high trajectory growth”.

Generally, it is seen that the incentives which are given in the period of recession or slow down and moreover, when the government in power is about to complete its tenure, are above from expectations. It is seen that budget in two years usually comes good when the Govt. is in the last year of power & in the first year of the rule as a vote of thanks.The mid three years out of the five year term usually remains tight on the policies.

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For the common man, we expect that Finance Minister may raise the exemption limit in personal income tax & investment limit Under Sec.80C. The reason to our belief:

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1. The rocketing prices of food articles like sugar, pulses and vegetables have been cutting the pockets of a middle class.

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2. By coming out with these measures (above mentioned) the government will lower the tax incidence on the common man & will also help it to put the opposition on backfoot.

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By & large everyone is aware of the level of fiscal deficits globally and many of us know that it is essential to minimize deficits & returning to fiscal consolidation is necessary. The main question is why it is so important. Let’s look at the consequences of high fiscal deficit:

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A risk to high government borrowings leads to more debt servicing that cuts expenditure on various social welfare schemes, if TAX revenues do not matchup. In the current financial year, out of the 4 lakh crore borrowing, more than 50% has gone towards interest payments.

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Secondly, the higher government borrowing from market means less availability of funds to private borrowers. In the current Fiscal year, due to dismal credit growth, we haven’t seen pressure on Interest rates. But going forward we foresee normal credit growth in the next financial year. However as the government borrowing is expected to remain at same level in the next fiscal, pressure on interest rate is expected.

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So, this year the theme of Budget would any way be to maintain economic recovery through investment for building infrastructure rather than funding the expenses/consumption. But at the same time focus will be to bring down the fiscal deficit.

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The catch here is bringing down deficit by cutting expenditure means risk to growth & the other alternative is to increase revenues. While the direct tax collections are encouraging, on the indirect taxes front the government is still struggling to get desired revenues. This is because after September 2008, when the global financial system collapsed, the government came out with stimulus packages to keep up the desired growth pace.

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Excise rates since December 2008 had been progressively cut from 16, 12 and 8 per cent to 10, 8 and 4 per cent respectively depending on the product in question. Service tax was also reduced from 12 to 10 per cent.

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Issue of bonus shares by Corporate India to its shareholders in the first 10 months of the fiscal has shot up 40% over the total during the fiscal ended March ‘09, after declining for two straight years.

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This interesting jump in bonus issues indicates positive sentiment of the corporate sector to serve a larger equity base.

There are as many as 61 companies which have done so.

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Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head with Delhi-based merchant bank SMC Capitals, said: “The increase in companies doling out bonus equity to its shareholders reflects that the domestic economy is on the path of recovery.”

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Corporate India has got the confidence to expand equity capital base and issue bonus sharesowing to the fact that they have performed very well this fiscal.

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Bonus issue is an offer of free additional shares to existing shareholders.

This is one of the ways of rewarding shareholders, who largely benefit from capital gains.

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A company may decide to distribute further shares as an alternative to increasing the dividend payout.

It is also known as a “scrip issue” or “capitalization issue”.

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The number of companies issuing bonus shares declined more than a quarter after hitting a peak in 2006-07 to 72 firms in 2007-08 and shrunk further to just 44 companies for the year ended March ‘09.

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This came after three consecutive years of rise in number of bonus issues, when more listed firms announced a bonus bonanza in line with the bull run of the stock market.

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Bonus shares are issued by companies through capitalization of their free reserves.

When a company announces bonus issue, it is an indication of its management’s confidence to serve a larger equity base.

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