Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Peak Oil & Oil Shale

We hear a lot of suggestions that world “Peak Oil” production is right around the corner (or, already here). Cooler (and more analytical) heads at the Energy Information Administration compiled a more sober view on when the world could reach “Peak Oil” production. Each of the following images was captured from a presentation developed by EIA.

Calculating “Peak Oil” is, and shall remain, a moving target. Many estimates of when the world would reach “Peak Oil” have come and gone (along with so many prophets of doom standing on any given street corner on any given day). This analysis seems to have many advantages over some of the alarmists which have already been proven wrong.

I am certain this presentation will also be proven to be wrong. New discoveries and new technologies will, without a doubt, delay “Peak Oil” further into the future -- much further. Furthermore, Peak Oil will NOT be the catastrophe envisioned by the prophets of doom. It will be a period of gradual adjustment and it will usher in greater economic incentives to develop alternatives. These alternatives will be developed if and ONLY if government stays the hell out of the way.

Many prophets of “Peak Oil” Doom have already been proven wrongClick the image to enlarge it:

Here are a range of estimates calculated by the EIA in 2004These estimates exclude our own tremendous Oil Shale resourcesClick the image to enlarge it:

Here is a description of the modeling scenarios used by the EIAClick the image to enlarge it:

Here is a description of the comparative advantages of using the EIA ModelClick the image to enlarge it:

These are the conclusions drawn by the EIA with respect to “Peak Oil”Click the image to enlarge it:

Again, our tremendous Oil Shale potential is NOT included in this analysis of “Peak Oil”. The following chart puts into perspective just how important it is that we begin NOW to develop our tremendous Oil Shale Resources.

USA Oil Shale in PerspectiveClick the image to enlarge it:I personally created and uploaded the above chart.The data used in the above chart are found in:1) Total Oil Shale - This document downloaded from this source2) Current Proven Reserves

1) Ensure a more healthy balance between World Demand and World Supply. Without that healthy balance, world economies will decline, venture capital will dry up, and we may never get beyond gasoline! The hydrocarbon economies create the capital which is necessary to invest into the development of future energy sources!

2) Continue to have a reliable longer term source of petroleum in order to provide the variety of other products which depend upon petroleum.