WARREN: The pros and cons of a return to the Senators for Erik Karlsson

Daniel Alfredsson returned to the Ottawa Senators to officially finish out his playing career and moved into management, a wonderful, if all too brief homecoming to the place he should never have left in the first place.

Hell could freeze over, especially in Ottawa, where Tuesday began with an all-time low temperature for this date.

The quickest avenue for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk to revive stale season-ticket sales (and to improve his standing among fans) would be to re-sign the most talented player in franchise history.

Indeed, if the two-time Norris Trophy winner came back, the Senators would immediately become a more competitive team for the 2019-20 National Hockey League season.

All that said, don’t get too excited about the idea of a second Senators tour for No. 65 just yet. If being close to Ottawa is indeed a chief concern, the Montreal Canadiens or New York Rangers loom as more distinct possibilities.

Beyond the deep personal conflicts between the player and ownership, the Senators would be going against the grain of their own recent history by making such a move.

Consider that the last time the Senators signed a high-profile unrestricted free agent from outside the organization was Clarke MacArthur in 2013.

For the Senators to go big now, the people at the top of the organization — most notably, Melnyk and general manager Pierre Dorion — would have to drastically change their tunes.

Erik Karlsson will become an unrestricted free agent July 1 after playing out the final season of his contract as a member of the San Jose Sharks.Wayne Cuddington /
Postmedia

For months, we’ve heard about short-term pain for long-term gain. The plan has been repeated endlessly since the departures of would-be captain Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel gutted the team before the NHL trade deadline in February.

“If you think about it, they’re all looking for seven- or eight-year contracts at the age of 27, from anywhere from $8 million to $10 million a year,” Melnyk said in a controversial interview with CFRA in March. “Five, six years from now, they’re all going to be in their almost mid-30s, and you’re going to have all these kids coming up.”

Karlsson turned 29 last week, which would make him 36 by the time a seven-year contract expired.

Wherever Karlsson lands, he’s expected to sign a seven-year contract somewhere in the range of $50 million to $60 million in total. Despite impressive offensive numbers with the San Jose Sharks in 2019-20 (three goals and 42 assists in 53 regular-season games, plus two goals and 14 assists in 19 playoff games), injury concerns will likely work against a bigger payday.

Meanwhile, “the kids”, led by 22-year-old defenceman Thomas Chabot and 19-year-old winger Brady Tkachuk, have become central to the new Senators message.

If, as expected, Chabot is signed to a lengthy extension this summer, buying out some of his free agency years, the Senators will cement him as one of the faces of their future.

Further, Erik Brannstrom, the 19-year-old acquired in the Stone trade, could become a top-four defencemen within the next season or two.

On top of that, there’s the not so small issue of who will lead the players.

Ask around the dressing room and conventional wisdom is that the Senators would do well to wait one more season before handing the captain’s “C” to Tkachuk.

Bringing back Karlsson to the place where he used to rule could create a minefield of mixed messages. Karlsson is only a year removed from being captain; his voice carried plenty of weight, perhaps even too much when it came to the club’s practice habits, under former head coach Guy Boucher.

We’ve yet to see new head coach D.J. Smith in action at training camp or behind the bench, but his successful sales pitch for the job was all about pushing a youthful group to improvement over years, not days.

Asking a rookie NHL head coach to also manage a star like Karlsson could cutt the feet out from under him.

At this point, the future salary slate is relatively clean. Only three position players (Bobby Ryan, Zack Smith and Tkachuk) have contracts extending beyond 2019-20, meaning D.J. Smith is in position to help dictate who sticks around long-term.

While there’s certainly room to add a proven veteran up front and on defence in a support position (Jason Spezza and/or Marc Methot?), a Karlsson return would work counter to why Smith was hired.

The coach has the rest of the summer to fine-tune his ideas and we’re betting few of them involve Karlsson.

The Senators have changed directions before, of course, and anything can happen. Barring a new owner, a new general manager and a new message, however, it’s unlikely we’ll see Karlsson playing for the Senators any time soon.

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