Climate
Applications Scientist Lareef Zubair (right) of the International
Research Institute for Climate Prediction was invited by Jeffrey
Sachs (middle) to a banquet with Sri Lanka's Prime Minister (left). "Normally it is difficult for scientists to be heard in the policy community," says
Zubair. Photo credit: Nirupam Bajpai

Thanks to a visit by Jeffrey Sachs in January 2003, a previously
little-known climate research program run by Lareef Zubair of the
Earth Institute's International Research Institute for Climate
Prediction (IRI) now has the interest of Sri Lanka's highest ranking
government officials.

Sri Lanka is at a pivotal moment in its peace process," says
Sachs. "I was invited in to do some country advising, to look at
the economic piece with my Earth Institute colleague Nirupaum Bajpai
of the Earth Institute's Center on Globalization and Sustainable
Development. Of course, Lareef Zubair has been working in Sri Lanka
for years on many pieces: climate, hydrology, elephants. It was
great to have his authoritative voice at the table."

Zubair knew that he was going to be invited to the Prime Minister's
dinner for Sachs last month when the banquet chef called to ask
if he eats crab. For three years Dr. Zubair, a climate applications
scientist with the IRI, had been working with a six-member team
in a small rural office at Sri Lanka's Mahaweli River Basin Authority.
Using the IRI's climate prediction and modeling capabilities, the
team had researched and published on climate links to stream flow
and rainfall, and its implications for water management (which
affects everything from electricity to agriculture to elephant
habitat).

"It was just tremendous to have someone from Columbia come and
see the work," says Zubair of Sachs' visit. "Jeff was very proactive
in introducing us to the policymakers— the minister and high
ranking officials of science, technology and economic reform, health,
tourism and finance ministries, as well as the Prime Minister himself.
Normally it is difficult for scientists to move from the scientific
community to the policy community."

"Sachs gives you credibility among the policy makers," Zubair
added, "whether you are talking about links between drought and
economic growth, or between climate and human-elephant conflict." The
fact that Earth Institute economists and climate scientists are
collaborating provides a signal to policy makers in Sri Lanka about
the importance of involving local scientists and technical experts
in the planning process. "My sense is there is a hunger in the
Sri Lankan policy community for relevant scientific information," he
adds.

Immediately after Sachs and Bajpai visited Sri Lanka, the country's
Ministry of Science and Technology called to invite Zubair to address
a group of officials on the benefits of climate prediction and
its applications, and the Central Bank requested a detailed briefing.
The Minister of Irrigation and Water Management visited the IRI's
project office in the Mahaweli River Basin Authority, and declared
his intention to expand the office into a national climate predictions
and applications center.

Nirupam
Bajpai (center), Lareef Zubair (right), and IRI Mahaweli
project field staff member Irugal Bandara (left) stand in
front of a barrage and the Mahaweli River Basin’s meteorological
stations near the IRI Project office at the Mahaweli River
Basin Authority in rural Sri Lanka. There is a direct link
between climate and economic growth, and therefore between
the work of the IRI and the Center on Globalization and
Sustainable Development: in 2002, a drought was a principal
reason for a zero percent rate of economic growth. Photo
credit: M.R.A. Siraj

"This all started with a $7,000 grant from the IRI three years ago,
to study the use of seasonal climate predictions for water resources
management in the Mahaweli river basin. $11,000 was added last year
for a project on human-elephant conflict. We obtained additional
funds from a Global Environmental Facility funded project on the
impacts and adaptation of tea and coconut plantations to climate
change," Zubair recalls. "As Jeff has advised Sri Lankan Central
Bank officials in the context of attracting investors, sometimes
you can do a lot with a little money."

"I see climate information as IRI's capital," Zubair
adds. "Once you make that available and accessible,
partners are keen to collaborate and a lot can be accomplished." The
IRI's Mahaweli River Basin projects have used the institute's
climate prediction models and information to study
climate links to rice production, river flow, and reservoir
management. The team has produced high-resolution seasonal
climate predictions for Sri Lanka from IRI's large
scale, coarse predictions, and published some surprising
insights about the connection between El Niño-Southern
Oscillation, the Indian Ocean surface conditions, and
Sri Lanka's water situation. Researchers in Sri Lanka
are also involved in several interdisciplinary projects
that bear the IRI and Earth Institute's signature of
using science to understand and address real life problems.
Earth Institute projects in Sri Lanka include:

Human-Elephant Conflict Project, a study of what climate
means for the vegetation and water availability for
the endangered elephant population in Sri Lanka, which
increasingly comes into conflict with the human population.
This project is a collaboration among the Wildlife
Trust, a member of the Center for Environmental Research
and Conservation (CERC); the Center for International
Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), which is
contributing Remote Sensing, Geographic Information
tools, and societal expertise; and the IRI, which is
contributing climate predictions, monitoring and applications
expertise. Natural Disaster Hot Spots, a case study
for the Global Natural Disaster Risk

Hotspots Project coordinated by the Center for Hazards
and Risk Research, CIESIN, and the IRI. The project
examines drought, flooding, landslides, and cyclones
and how climate information and other Earth Institute
expertise might be used to make vulnerable areas more
resilient.

Malaria climate links: preliminary work has been conducted
and a project proposal has been developed by an IRI
team—including Steve Connor and Neil Ward—with
the International Water Management Institute (where
Roberto Lenton, Executive Director of the IRI Secretariat
for International Affairs and Development, served as
the Director General) and the Lamont Doherty Climate
Group.

The Earth Institute at Columbia University is among the
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partnerships, it mobilizes science and technology to advance sustainable
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poor.