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ITworld|January 29, 2014

Android PCs versus Windows

ZDNet thinks that Android PCs may eventually put a huge dent in Windows desktop market share.

Android is going to become popular with home and SOHO users. It's going to enable all those users who love Android on their tablets and smartphones to enjoy the same apps on their desktops.

So it is that by 2016, it will become clear that Windows really is on the way out. It's not gone yet. It will still be important in 2020, but the days when Microsoft could call the shots in the PC industry will be done.

It's pretty tough to argue with the author's assessment about Windows giving ground to Android PCs. I made the point a while back that Microsoft's biggest mistake was missing out on mobile market share. This allowed Android to swoop in and give mobile users a totally non-Windows mobile experience.

All of those mobile users will soon have the option of running Android on their desktops too. They know that they don't need Windows for their mobile devices, and quite a lot of them now have enough experience computing without Windows to feel comfortable using Android on the desktop.

It's just not a Windows-only world any more. Millions of people have moved on to other operating systems, and they've realized that Windows is now optional for most people. It's a totally different mind-set out there than what existed years ago, before the rise of mobile devices.

Android is also not Mac OS X, it will not simply confine itself to the high end of the desktop computer market. It will aggressively challenge Microsoft in every sphere of the desktop market, and Microsoft will not be able to compete with Android on price in any way whatsoever. Android is probably going to rip apart what's left of Microsoft's desktop monopoly.

All of this has put Microsoft in a very bad position. It's mobile operating systems still lag woefully behind Android, and now one of their most important franchises faces real competition on the desktop. I would not want to be the new CEO of Microsoft as the company tries to deal with this issue.

Microsoft is in serious trouble, and it's only going to get worse in the years to come.