Demand for tablet-style devices -- particularly Apple's iPad -- is expected to weaken demand for traditional PCs in 2011 and 2012, research firm Gartner has predicted.

Gartner announced on Thursday that it has lowered its PC sales forecast for the next two years, as it sees increased diversity in the mobile computing space taking away sales from traditional computers and laptops. Analysts said that the iPad and other "media tablets" are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives.

Gartner sees worldwide PC shipments reaching 387.8 million in 2011, a 10.5 percent increase from 2010. But that number is also a major reduction from Gartner's previous projection of 15.9 percent growth in the current year.

The company also sees PC shipments totaling 440.6 million units in 2012, which would be a 13.6 percent increase from its projected total for 2011. The new numbers are also a decrease from a previously announced outlook of 14.8 percent growth in 2012.

"These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer mobile PC demand, in no small part because of the near-term weakness expected in China's mobile PC market, but also because of a general loss in consumer enthusiasm for mobile PCs," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

Now, the research firm sees users embracing PC alternatives like the iPad. Apple itself this week, in unveiling the iPad 2, repeatedly referred to its touchscreen tablet as a "post-PC device."

"We expect growing consumer enthusiasm for mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to dramatically slow home mobile PC sales, especially in mature markets," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

"We once thought that mobile PC growth would continue to be sustained by consumers buying second and third mobile PCs as personal devices. However, we now believe that consumers are not only likely to forgo additional mobile PC buys but are also likely to extend the lifetimes of the mobile PCs they retain as they adopt media tablets and other mobile PC alternatives as their primary mobile device."

First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?

The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?

You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.

The utterly pointless debate over whether the iPad is or is not a PC will begin here.

agreed- perhaps the debate would be less contentious if it were centred around the question of whether or not the average user, who principally consumes media only requires a device like an iPad. The iPad does what 95%(number picked for dramatic affect ) of 'computer' users actually do. Content creators on the other hand obviously need appropriate tools - being the 'PC' (for the moment that is until Apple redefine that space as well)

HA! Take that all the legions of imbeciles who I used to argue with about whether or not there was a market for tablets. I always said the problem was simply lack of vision on their part, and when someone (ie Apple) did the product properly it would be a humungous success, and here we are in the here and now and it's really happened.

Take that all you people out there (and you know who you are!) who simply lacked vision!!!!! I can't tell you how gratified I am that they all have to eat their words now.

First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?

The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?

Phone carriers heavily subsidize the cost of smartphones with contracts, so they have much more weight. Comcast didn't pay for my MacBook Pro. Also, your phone is more or less tied to one carrier - a computer can go from your home to the library to Starbucks and it doesn't matter which ISP you're using.

1. Gartner is always wrong, even when they are accidentally partially right.

2. The iPad will inevitably have some effect on PC sales.

Cognitive dissonance, I know. How to make sense of it?

I think the answer is that it may well affect "mobile PC" sales negatively, but there may be a corresponding positive effect on desktop PC sales.

Particularly for personal use, notebook and, especially, netbook computers have always represented a compromise that gave users the worst of both worlds. Smaller screens and less powerful processors handicapped portable computer users, unless they also invested in external monitors to overcome at least that issue. They are still heavier than is really comfortable to carry around: compared to an iPad, you really know when you are hauling a laptop. (Apple's MBAs being a somewhat unique exception in this latter regard.)

What I think a lot of people will begin to do is, as they begin to replace their "traditional" computers, opt for desktops in greater numbers than has been the case in the recent past, and buy tablets (primarily iPads) for their portable computing needs, and smartphones will satisfy their ultra-ultra-portable/pocketable needs.

The laptop craze has been, in my view, something of a fad. It was "cool" to have a laptop. But, most of the people buying them didn't really need them, as such, to do serious work on. Moving them around the house, take them with you on a trip to check email and browse the web, sure, but very few of the people who have been buying personal laptops aren't doing much more with them when out and about.

So, now, they can get iPads, which are ideally suited for the actual uses people have for them as mobile devices, and a desktop which gives them more processing power and a bigger screen -- which equals better productivity -- for the tasks they actually use them for at home. And they can do this, get the best of both worlds, for essentially the same price as it would cost them to buy a decent laptop, which was always a compromise choice.

Netbook buyers may just decide to entirely eschew new PCs and opt only for tablets. Cost conscious, and mostly not using them for anything serious anyway, a tablet solution may be just fine for them. Unless, of course, the netbook was already a companion to a desktop system, in which case they already have half of the ideal solution.

agreed- perhaps the debate would be less contentious if it were centred around the question of whether or not the average user, who principally consumes media only requires a device like an iPad. The iPad does what 95%(number picked for dramatic affect ) of 'computer' users actually do. Content creators on the other hand obviously need appropriate tools - being the 'PC' (for the moment that is until Apple redefine that space as well)

I was super impressed by the new iPad GargeBand - I'll make a final judgement when I see it in person, but it looks great. It's a symbol of the many advantages the iPad has over PCs. Is the iOS GarageBand as purely powerful as the one in iLife? Probably not. But can a notebook turn into a virtual drumset or turntable with touch controls? Nope!

Maybe I'm being shortsighted, but it would be REALLY cool to use the iPad as a user input device for professional level apps. For example, if my iPad and Mac Pro are on the same network, I can tell the Mac Pro what to do through my iPad. Cutting clips in Final Cut Pro, for example, would be so much more fun and easy with touch controls. Then all of the heavy rendering and moving around of gigabytes of files is done by the Mac Pro. This would also allow you to do these complex tasks on the road, without bringing your computer everywhere.

IMovie demo was absolutely mind blowing. For a regular user there is really not much more in terms of features that one might want. Honestly since I only do home movie type stuff I may transition to iPad and do edits right on the spot or soon after, at least the basic stuff.

Everything in the tech world is getting reshuffled. As Steve Jobs said yesterday "Post PC".
This is not a "trend"...it's a major shift in how people communicate with each other.
This PC conversation will seem inane before 2015.

First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?

The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?

Honestly, most people don't care. And guess what, it doesn't matter. People who want what you do will continue to use a traditional computer for most of what they do, and most others will not.

There's been a big mistake in understanding what most people want and need. They don't want or need something that's very open. They do like cell phones, closed or not. Android doesn't sell because it's thought to be open, but merely because there are so many manufacturers with so many phone models. Otherwise, so what?

IMovie demo was absolutely mind blowing. For a regular user there is really not much more in terms of features that one might want. Honestly since I only do home movie type stuff I may transition to iPad and do edits right on the spot or soon after, at least the basic stuff.

I too am very much looking forward to iMovie on the iPad. One thing that concerns me though is whether it only works with clips recorded with the iPad or if you can copy over clips recorded with some other video camera. Surely they wouldn't constrain such a beautiful piece of software in that way. How does the iPhone 4 version of iMovie work in that regard?

agreed- perhaps the debate would be less contentious if it were centred around the question of whether or not the average user, who principally consumes media only requires a device like an iPad. The iPad does what 95%(number picked for dramatic affect ) of 'computer' users actually do. Content creators on the other hand obviously need appropriate tools - being the 'PC' (for the moment that is until Apple redefine that space as well)

The new Garageband and iMovie for iPad have already been mentioned, but even if they didn't exist I think this "consumption" vs. "creation" distinction is no more explanatory than the threadbare "PC or not PC" argument. If I'm reading a book on my iPad, is this a "media consumption" activity? How about posting to this board? Writing or reading e-mail? The meanings of these terms break down almost before they come out of your mouth. They are truly arbitrary, in the same way as the other overworked terms used to describe what the iPad is or isn't.

I was super impressed by the new iPad GargeBand - I'll make a final judgement when I see it in person, but it looks great. It's a symbol of the many advantages the iPad has over PCs. Is the iOS GarageBand as purely powerful as the one in iLife? Probably not. But can a notebook turn into a virtual drumset or turntable with touch controls? Nope!

Maybe I'm being shortsighted, but it would be REALLY cool to use the iPad as a user input device for professional level apps. For example, if my iPad and Mac Pro are on the same network, I can tell the Mac Pro what to do through my iPad. Cutting clips in Final Cut Pro, for example, would be so much more fun and easy with touch controls. Then all of the heavy rendering and moving around of gigabytes of files is done by the Mac Pro. This would also allow you to do these complex tasks on the road, without bringing your computer everywhere.

What do you guys think

I'm sure a lot of this is going to happen. I already use my iPad with Photoshop as an extra WiFi monitor. I can even draw on the iPad screen in PS. There are apps that allow you to do work on files such as CAD (from Autodesk) and bring them in and out of the main program. IMovie is a good example of what we'll see in movie editing.

I was just disappointed that they didn't bring iPhoto to the iPad 2 (yet!). Not that I use it, but it would have been another good example as iMovie and GarageBand are.

I would have loved it if they brought Aperture over. Maybe someday. It would spur Adobe to get Lightroom there as well, though I do believe they are investigating that now.

I too am very much looking forward to iMovie on the iPad. One thing that concerns me though is whether it only works with clips recorded with the iPad or if you can copy over clips recorded with some other video camera. Surely they wouldn't constrain such a beautiful piece of software in that way. How does the iPhone 4 version of iMovie work in that regard?

You can copy Clips over. I've read that you can bring them over with the camera connection kit, and likely you can do so in iTunes the way you can bring things into the iPad now. I imagine you can bring things out that way as well, using iTunes that is. I don't know if Apple is expanding the connection kit to allow transfers out, which would be cool.

IMovie demo was absolutely mind blowing. For a regular user there is really not much more in terms of features that one might want. Honestly since I only do home movie type stuff I may transition to iPad and do edits right on the spot or soon after, at least the basic stuff.

Ditto.

Seeing what can be done via iMovie and Garageband, there is no doubt that we may be well soon getting iPad apps that virtually replace the need for power programs such as Microsoft Office and the Adobe Suite as they stand now. And that goes for Apples' pro software, e.g., Final Cut, Logic and Aperature.

As I have said before, connect a Bluetooth keyboard and a large monitor, all we really need then is a touchpad so we don't have to rely on tiring ourselves out reaching across the screen to click a button, resize an image or place the cursor.

If anything, and unlike some other, we are past just touching the surface.

The game changer hasn't happened yet. iPad needs to be truly independent of a computer. And that means unshackling it from iTunes. Giving it the power to configure a WiFi router. Enabling it to access the iTunes store and App store directly through WiFi or 3G.

Apple can make worthwhile changes with the 2012 update, like doubling the flash storage and doubling the screen resolution, but without unshackling it from PC-based iTunes it won't have truly redefined computing. And that's a dangerous step for Apple as well as for everyone else. Until that step is taken, it's basically an iPod touch with a usable screen.

The new Garageband and iMovie for iPad have already been mentioned, but even if they didn't exist I think this "consumption" vs. "creation" distinction is no more explanatory than the threadbare "PC or not PC" argument. If I'm reading a book on my iPad, is this a "media consumption" activity? How about posting to this board? Writing or reading e-mail? The meanings of these terms break down almost before they come out of your mouth. They are truly arbitrary, in the same way as the other overworked terms used to describe what the iPad is or isn't.

I absolutely wish they would drop the word "media" from the beginning of the description. While it's very possible that other products will be media tablets for some while, until a decent number of good production, business, etc. apps of various types come out, it's not true of the iPad, and hasn't been since shortly after it appeared.

First off, for what it is, the ipad and ipad 2 are very cool, that said, is anyone else alarmed about how fast people seem to be saying that this is the new computing? these "tablet and smartphones will kill PC" talk frighten me, there is no openness on these devices: can you run browser addins like noscript or adblock on android or IOS? can you change the default web browser? the default email client?

The lock peice also bugs me. if I buyu hardware, I dont want to be told what network it can or cannot connect to arbitrarily, I dont want my vendor or acrrier blocking updates and such...imagine if Comcast could say "we dont want you to have feature x of OSX or Windows 7" and they could force you to not have that piece, that would never stand, yet we take it in phones and tablets? why?

Let me get this straight ... you are frightened by this? Based on what historical fact is your fear justified?

Seeing what can be done via iMovie and Garageband, there is no doubt that we may be well soon getting iPad apps that virtually replace the need for power programs such as Microsoft Office and the Adobe Suite as they stand now. And that goes for Apples' pro software, e.g., Final Cut, Logic and Aperature.

As I have said before, connect a Bluetooth keyboard and a large monitor, all we really need then is a touchpad so we don't have to rely on tiring ourselves out reaching across the screen to click a button, resize an image or place the cursor.

If anything, and unlike some other, we are past just touching the surface.

If the iTunes uncoupling I call for actually happens, this will be another big development with the iPad. Currently, it's truly astonishing how bloated and inefficient the major power applications have become. You've got little desktop gizmos that could have run on a Commodore 64 requiring megabytes of hard drive space. The iPad represents an opportunity to get back to truly efficient programming.

The game changer hasn't happened yet. iPad needs to be truly independent of a computer. And that means unshackling it from iTunes. Giving it the power to configure a WiFi router. Enabling it to access the iTunes store and App store directly through WiFi or 3G.

Apple can make worthwhile changes with the 2012 update, like doubling the flash storage and doubling the screen resolution, but without unshackling it from PC-based iTunes it won't have truly redefined computing. And that's a dangerous step for Apple as well as for everyone else. Until that step is taken, it's basically an iPod touch with a usable screen.

No, it's still a lot more than that. While needing a computer for updates to the OS, and most, but not all, backups, it's annoying, but not fatal. I only sync every few days or so. That's not being tied to my computer. And I don't find iTunes to be a hinderance.

You're thinking in the old ways when you want to get rid of iTunes here. I think of iTunes as being one of the best features of this. It's what makes things so easy.

It won't take the place of my Mac Pro for, as Steve says, the heavy lifting, but I'm using it more and more for more things I would be sitting in front of my computer for.

The new Garageband and iMovie for iPad have already been mentioned, but even if they didn't exist I think this "consumption" vs. "creation" distinction is no more explanatory than the threadbare "PC or not PC" argument. If I'm reading a book on my iPad, is this a "media consumption" activity? How about posting to this board? Writing or reading e-mail? The meanings of these terms break down almost before they come out of your mouth. They are truly arbitrary, in the same way as the other overworked terms used to describe what the iPad is or isn't.

I absolutely wish they would drop the word "media" from the beginning of the description. While it's very possible that other products will be media tablets for some while, until a decent number of good production, business, etc. apps of various types come out, it's not true of the iPad, and hasn't been since shortly after it appeared.

I might agree, but I'm not sure. The makers of these products (Apple included) do tend to lapse into buzzword compliance and to drop vague but loaded terms such as "media," but I don't see where this has any impact on what the device actually does. For one, I find Keynote on the iPad to be a first rate business app, if using it to make presentations instead of a laptop is included in this category. I've even done some writing with Pages on the iPad, though if I was to make a frequent practice of it, I'd probably invest in a physical keyboard. Anyhow, from yesterday's presentation I see Apple pointing a big neon sign towards a future they're calling the "post-PC era." I'm not sure what this landscape will look like, but I'm more than ready to move on from the place we've been for too long.

With Android updating over the air. I've been asking what happens if you are updating your OS OTA and something goes wrong.

I have a friend with a Moto Droid where this did happen. He ended up plugging his phone into a computer and reloading the entire OS and all of his apps and information. He didn't have an iTunes so it was a total pain in the ass for him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoeditor

The game changer hasn't happened yet. iPad needs to be truly independent of a computer.