Category Archives: NFL

Week 11 Recap: Week 11 was tough on a number of levels. We finished with a 1-2 record on official plays, and a 1-1 record on Break-Even or Better selections. That doesn’t tell the full story though. We whiffed pretty badly on the Washington (-7) pick, as the dysfunctional Dead Skins lost to Tampa Bay at home…

When I first saw the NYT 4th-Down Bot last year my reaction was, now maybe we’ll make progress. Successful analytics is about far more than whether or not your numbers are right. It’s an exercise in persuasion. I figured the bot could only help. New angle, new platform. But if the past is any guide,…

Week 10 Recap: Excellent week for our picks last week, going 3-1. Our one loss was Miami (+2.5/+3), which fell victim to a go-ahead Detroit touchdown in the final minute. Atlanta (-2.5) was a 27-17 winner over Tampa Bay as our second Big Play. For our Other Plays, Baltimore (-9.5) fell behind early, but ended up winning by…

Week 9 Recap: A small-volume, losing week in the NFL last week (1-2). We were on the right side of one of the two blowouts, and on the wrong side of the one close game. Miami (-1.5) surprised everyone in how thoroughly they dominated the San Diego, winning 37-0. As much as I’d like to say ‘yeah, we…

Week 8 Recap: A solid week, going 2-1 on our official plays last week. And finally we managed to win some Break-Even or Better plays, going 2-0 on those. Baltimore (Pk) lost a heartbreaker at Cincinnati. Baltimore rallied from an 11-point second-half deficit to take the lead, only for Cincy to answer with a late TD. Still, it seemed…

Sorry to say that we’ll be pushing picks back to Thursday mornings. The good news and bad news is that publishing our picks appears to be having an impact on the market. I know that posting picks later means there may be less value, but I don’t have much of a choice in the matter, as I can’t justify compromising my…

Week 6 Recap: Only had one official play last week, a Big Play on Miami, which either won or pushed depending on what line you got. That will get graded as half a win and half a push (per what I wrote last week). If you got it at +3 that is certainly a tough break,…

Week 5 Recap: Only two official plays last week, which split. Buffalo (+7) capitalized on Detroit’s kicking woes for a 17-14 comeback win; Dallas (-6) won in overtime, but failed to cover. Our Break Even or Better plays also went 1-1. Kansas City (+6) got the cover, losing 22-17. The line closed at KC +4.5, which goes…

Week 4 Recap: Week 4 was light on official plays, but had five games that made our unofficial Break-Even or Better listing. Our Big Plays went 1-1. The New York Giants (+4) benefitted from a third-quarter Kirk Cousins clinic on how not to be an NFL quarterback and embarrassed my Redskins 45-14. The Bears (+1.5) could not figure…

A happy recap this week, as our official plays went 3-0. We had two big plays on NFC (L)east teams. The first was Dallas (-1.5) on the road against a St. Louis squad starting some guy named Austin Davis. Massey-Peabody is the only rating system I know of that was bullish on the Cowboys going into the season. And…