Monday, November 15, 2010

Tea party support by state

The following table shows net support (% of voters supporting - % of voters opposing) for the tea party movement by state among voters in the 2010 mid-term elections. Exit polling was only conducted extensively in states where the Senate and/or gubernatorial races were at least somewhat competitive:

State

Support

Oppose

Net

1) Texas

48

25

23

2) Arkansas

43

23

20

3) Indiana

46

27

19

4) West Virginia

40

24

16

4) Ohio

43

27

16

4) Arizona

46

30

16

7) Kentucky

43

28

15

8) South Carolina

43

29

14

9) Missouri

41

28

13

9) Louisiana

42

29

13

National

41

30

11

11) New Hampshire

41

32

9

12) Colorado

41

34

7

12) Florida

39

32

7

14) Wisconsin

37

32

5

15) Illinois

36

32

4

15) Pennsylvania

39

35

4

15) Iowa

36

32

4

18) Nevada

38

35

3

19) Oregon

36

36

0

20) California

34

35

(1)

20) New York

36

37

(1)

22) Washington

37

40

(3)

23) Connecticut

35

42

(7)

24) Delaware

35

45

(10)

25) Hawaii

26

37

(11)

26) Vermont

24

43

(19)

Nothing surprising here. The correlation between McCain's share of the vote in '08 and support for the tea party today is a nearly perfect .89. The phenomenon is a battle for the 'heart and soul' of the Republican party--there are very few leftists joining the cause.

What is remarkable is how the perceptions of the tea party compare with those of the two major parties. The following table shows net support for the tea party and each major political party, this time by net support for Democrats. Because the questions regarding the parties asks about favorability/unfavorability while the tea party question asks about support/opposition, it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's close. For whatever reason, exit pollsters in five states did not inquire about feelings towards the two parties, so those states are omitted:

State

Dem

Rep

TP

California

+6

(28)

(1)

Illinois

+6

(19)

+4

Delaware

+5

(20)

(10)

Washington

+4

(23)

(3)

Pennsylvania

(1)

(13)

+4

Oregon

(3)

(33)

+0

Wisconsin

(6)

(4)

+5

West Virginia

(7)

(4)

+16

National

(8)

(12)

+11

Colorado

(10)

(18)

+7

Florida

(11)

(8)

+7

Iowa

(11)

(2)

+4

Nevada

(11)

(12)

+3

Ohio

(11)

(12)

+16

Missouri

(15)

(5)

+13

Kentucky

(16)

+2

+15

Arkansas

(17)

+8

+20

Indiana

(18)

+5

+19

New Hampshire

(18)

(1)

+9

South Carolina

(19)

+9

+14

Texas

(19)

+5

+23

Arizona

(23)

+1

+16

In no state does the GOP receive greater support than the tea party. I've resigned myself to the idea that I will be voting without exception for hopeless third party presidential candidates for my entire life, but if ever the ground seems fertile enough for a perennial third party to take root, now is that time.

Even in some competitive blue states like Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin, the tea party does better than Democrats do. Even in solidly Democratic states like California and Illinois, feelings towards the tea party are decidedly mixed. Christine O'Donnell, like Sarah Palin, appears to have a knack for really grating some people. Consequently, opposition to the tea party is especially high in Delaware relative to its political profile.

Yes, and they seem ever eager to pin the tea party movement as something socially right, whatever that manifestation happens to be--mostly insinuated racism so far, but you know they'd love the tea party movement to be associated with the pro life movement or something along those cultural lines.