Bill James: great frequency of defensive shifts will probably end in about five years

In a recent Q&A, Bill James said this and I agree. It may not be five years, but we will see an end to the increasing frequency of these shifts. The reason is simple: bunting is the best option and once players begin to do it, the shifts will end.

If you can bunt for a hit, it almost always makes sense to do it. That’s why this era we are in, with the great frequency of defensive shifts, will probably end in about five years. Young power hitters will figure out that they can hit .700 against it by bunting, and they’ll start bunting, and force managers to abandon the shift. It only works because people don’t bunt.

By the way, I made a similar point this spring, and added that “sometime this year, I expect to see some hitter bunt for a double.” I didn’t see it all year, and I was thinking I would have to acknowledge my error on that one, and then, the last time the Red Sox played the Yankees, Robby Cano bunted for a double up the left field line. ​

SSI has maintained, for years, that Justin Smoak's refusal to bunt is an egregiously selfish decision. I can't think of ANY selfish tactic, in ANY American sport, that costs its team so dearly as this one does.

Smoak's not the only such player, of course; most MLB(TM) players "who are paid to knock runners in" refuse to bunt against the shift. Griffey refused. Ortiz does. Almost everybody does. They run with the crowd to commit evil, as it were.

And so, there is a "Moneyball" field strategy available against these selfish nimrods: Shift the stuffing out of them.

I was happy to see Anthony Rizzo try to at least bunt this past year even if it wasn't pretty. He needs to be practicing and hopefully he'll take advantage of the shift as long as teams will give him that side of the field to hit through. If not, well, it's pretty dumb even if that's what most of the other players do.

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Comments

That hit on Huber last night might be the final straw for me giving a shit about football. Just an egregiously malicious, completely unnecessary, flagrantly illegal hit that resulted in a man’s jaw having to be wired shut. And not only was it not flagged, but it helped spring a TD. This is a league where if you hit a quarterback in the thigh .1 seconds after he releases the ball you get flagged 15 yards, but literally exploding a defenseless man’s face draws nothing. It’s completely arbitrary at this point, and I really have slim to no desire to get heavily invested in a league with no discernible rules.

That’s a tough call. It can be fixed, but I’d have to look at these specific examples. Losing accuracy is typically attributed to mechanical changes. A good QB coach can fix that. If it’s a mental issue, that’ll come out in interviews (which we obviously won’t see).

I don’t worry too much about stuff like that, as most of these guys are fixable from those standpoints. If it’s a physical issue (mechanics), that’s easily fixed. If it’s mental, change of scenery can be the remedy. To me, Boyd has shown everything he needs to be shaped into an NFL QB. It’s just a matter of how much prep he needs, imo.

@ Suburban kid:
“Fools,” said I, “You do not know.
Bunting like a cancer grows.
Hear my words that I might teach you.
Take my arms that I might reach you.”
But my words like silent raindrops fell
And echoed in the wells of statfags.

Manziel seems like one of those classic awesome college players who sucks in NFL. Is he small for an NFL qb?

His hands are big enough, which is the biggest concern, imo.

There’s no way he’s 6’1″ as listed. I bet he measures in at less than 6′. Height’s only an issue if you lock onto targets and don’t understand passing lanes. I remember before the 2012 draft when Brock Osweiller (6’8″) had significantly more batted passes than Russell Wilson.

Manziel’s release changes an awful lot and he’s not comfortable in the pocket. As of right now, his height is an issue, imo. He gets away with in college because he scrambles around like a spaz. When a defense (like LSU’s) keeps him near the pocket, he’s lost.

Manziel’s biggest physical problem, imo, is his frame. “They” keep comparing him to Russell Wilson, but Wilson is built to handle NFL hits (like Boyd).

I’m big into the progressive NFL (Chip Kelly’s scheme, read option, etc.), but I just don’t think Manziel will make it in the NFL. However, I also wouldn’t bet against him. Basically, I don’t know if I’d be more afraid to take a chance on him or pass on him.

@ GBTS:
It looks like a relatively clean hit, although I guess there was obviously some helmet-to-chin contact.

[img]http://twitpic.com/show/thumb/dout2l.gif[/img]

The problem is though that since pop warner, kids are taught to destroy players who aren’t paying attention. “Gotta keep your head on a swivel”. But you have a 250 lb dude on steroids (most likely) going up against a friggin punter. You don’t need to destroy him to make a block. But now it’s on the highlight videos and if the punter didn’t need his jaw wired shut, then people would be commending him.

@ Myles:
What gets me about it is that they signed Baker last year for even more money. I thought that was pretty dumb at that time, but I also had no expectations he’d even pitch in 2013. Turns out, I was wrong. He did pitch, but barely.

Most likely: James Franklin. Youth, energy and desire to promote his program. Mike Gundy is an option here too.
My unrealistic wish: Art Briles. Perfect fit, but why would he leave? Baylor gives him whatever he wants and there’s virtually no pressure.
My realistic wish: Gus Malzahn. What he’s doing offensively at Auburn is like what Stanford/the 49ers do on steroids. His recent extension is the only reason he’s not the “Most likely” shoice.
Get the fuck out: Jim Harbaugh. Just back off, Texas.

Everyone in the Big 12 is praying their dicks off that Texas doesn’t lure Briles from Baylor. It would be game over for everyone else in that conference.

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