National Airport's record high of 76F could be in play! At least you've got one last chance to shake off your Seasonal Affective Disorder before our 70s and sunshine turns into northwesterly winds tonight as an incoming cold front aims to usher in chillier air. Saturday and Sunday should still be OK, with some sun and temperatures in the 50s -- big winds could reduce your enjoyment a bit. It's the end of our long weekend on Monday into Tuesday that brings the next chance of potential storminess. Rain, snow, or shine? That's a good question...

Today (Friday): After cloudy skies this morning, sun should gradually emerge with enjoyable 70s for high temperatures today. Also, a sometimes gusty breeze from the southwest in the 5-15 mph range. I don't blame you if you take a long lunch or even the whole day off. Pretty amazing! And don't worry too much about increasing afternoon high clouds that could filter the sun. What I don't like is my allergies already hurting my eyes -- anyone else with early onset? Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: In comes the cold front during the first half of the night. It won't have much in the way of clouds or moisture with it, except for outside smallest chance of a sprinkle. West winds from 10-15 mph begin turning toward the northwesterly direction and may gust up to 25 mph. Low temperatures, while they may feel very chilly, should stay in the milder upper 30s to lower 40s. Confidence: Medium

Can we salvage the weekend before potential flakes next week? Keep reading...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Only a few periodic clouds between us and the sun. Breezes from the northwest really pick up into the 15-30 mph range with gusts to 40-50 mph. Really though, our temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s are still a touch above average for this time of year -- it is the wind that makes us bundle up a bit. It's so dry out there, watch out for dust in the eyes and small debris blowing around. The very dry air coupled with the strong winds expected have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Fire Weather Watch - meaning the risk of fires is potentially high. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Partly sunny with lighter winds, but also afternoon clouds really increasing. Still looks precipitation free for the most part. Temperatures rise to around 50, perhaps even mid-50s, despite the clouds battling with our sunshine. Not a bad day to be outdoors. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night begins more serious clouding-up. Sprinkles have a 20% chance of falling during evening hours. But more earnest, overcast skies may yield several rain showers (30-40% chance) by sunrise. Temperatures are fairly chilly in the upper 30s to near 40. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday (President's Day) remains tricky but right now I lean toward the idea it could be a bit damp, cloudy, and chilly. High temperatures could range widely from the mid 40s to mid 50s (perhaps even warmer, if a struggling warm front manages to make its way past DC), yet chances stand now for cool breezes out of the north which further reduces comfort levels. Rain showers (40-50% chance) could intermittently fall during our mostly cloudy day. Confidence: Low

After midnight and heading into Tuesday any rain lingering around may threaten to transition to snow as a second low pressure develops to the west and moves our direction. Where it passes is crucial for snow v. rain prospects and how much of either falls. There's about a 40-50% chance of precipitation, probably focused on the first half of the day. Cold air looms just north, so the risk for snow is real even if it has been warm lately. Highs are probably in the 30s to near 40. Confidence: Low

In Fairfax it is currently 55 degrees at 5:22am. I love it! Oh, and the 70's too that will be showing up later. I predict a minimum of 75 degrees today, since a 20 degree warm up is normal between the overnight "low" and daytime high. Records will definitely be falling today.

6Z GFS shows the tuesday storm still trending south - now it may be too far south... the snow part anyway. it's a 2-part storm where the first part (rain) passes mostly north, the second part passes mostly south. classic "dc hole". it's really pretty incredible how we get mostly missed on both accounts... still gives about 2" of snow, maybe.

seeing that walter, makes sense as the cold air to the north comes in behind the 1st low, it is now pushing the second down to our south. Looks like any changeover to snow from the 1st low late mon/tues changes over further north as has been the norm much of this winter.

ian, yesterday, you said,"petworthlad, the Euro consistently has the best verification scores. It's 'busts' are much more highly publicized than other models. It's been pretty good most of the winter on the whole.

where can one see "verification scores"? i'm curious as to how they do this because the models can show such different things day-to-day and even run-to-run as an event approaches. do they rate/test/verify the predictions from 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 days out?

[and, i'd sure like to see the comparable "verification scores" for j.bastardi's (and CWG's) predictions....]

no, camden, not just you with the allergies. i'm all, how could both kids catch a mild cold at the exact same time from two different schoo... heyyyy. and my eyes are itchy. meh. it's worth it, though!

CWG:
What is going on out there???? It is completely clouded over and cold. It's going to have a very hard time getting to 66, much less 76 unless these clouds go away. If today turns out to be completely clouded over with a high of only 61 I'm going to be very angry...and you wouldn't like me when I'm angry. BRB turning into the Hulk.

The Nice Day Sun is awarded for days that are expected to meet the following criteria:

* At least 50% sunshine - it's completely clouded over and satellite shows more clouds moving in!
* Probability of rain less than 20% - it rained!
* High temperatures from 65-85 - could be a struggle
* Dewpoints no higher than 65 -ok
* Wind gusts generally less than 25 mph -ok

*The few, widely scattered sprinkles/drizzle occurred pre 8 a.m.-- so not really relevant. *We'll make 65 without a problem. *Clouds are the bigger issue but looks like we break out of them this afternoon.

rwalker66,
are you really complaining that we might "only" get to 20 degrees above normal instead of a record-setting 30 above normal? it's february. substitute a few words and you could be me complaining that snoverkill "only" brought me 10" of snow on top of the 18" i'd received earlier.

when i saw the clouds this morning i knew we'd have some folks complaining about the heatwave under-performing...

(btw, i agree the "10" and "nice day" seem too much, but it's only 10:00. let's see how it plays out. camden may know something we don't about what's coming later.)

No Walter, not complaining about that. Like you I just disagree with the 10 and "nice day". Jason says we should break out of the clouds this afternoon. So from 2pm-6pm until the sun goes down it will be a "10" and a nice day? 4 hours does not equal a day. A 10 and "Nice day" badge has always meant a beautiful nice day from the time the sun comes up until it goes down. I would give today more of a 7 or 8.

its beautiful out here today! with or without the sun, im lovin it! perfect temps, perfect breeze.

the only thing that could make this weekend even better is for monday nights storm to keep moving more and more south of dc. id love to have a full 3 day weekend and it not be ruined by monday night / tues morning winter precip, yuck. Go south and stay south, cmon keep the trend goin.

1 storm to the north the 2nd a complete miss to the south= perfection!

the 12z GFS is slightly better for snow than the 6z was - it's more in line with what the 0z showed: 2-5" at the end of the storm. we're almost close enough for this to show up on the NAM. it'll be interesting to see what that's projecting for the storm.

well the 1st low is north of us for the most part thats why itll be rain but that 2nd low has tracked south and even though snow is up to the mason dixon line if it keeps tracking south far enough we could end up being at the very northern tip of the storm which would be colder sure but if it tracks far enough south which it has been trending towards it could end up being snow showers, flurries or even nothin. the 1st storm and cold should help to push the 2nd one further and further south hopefully far enough eventually to miss us completely. theres no way the 2nd low tracks more north at this point so i gotta hope it goes way south!

that cold air comes plunging south quickly during the evening and the GFS which has the same idea during the day turns us to snow Monday night. A 70 degree day followed by snow at night is tough to do here, but it certainly seems possible.

oh, and the GFS shows highs in the 20's here Tuesday. Quite a roller coaster......

Excellent golf day, except that I'm at the office. I do like winter weather, but I am getting the golfing itch again. Having lived in Tucson for a number of years, I got used to playing golf in Jan and Feb wearing shorts and a golf shirt. Not going to happen here often.

yeah the models have def went warmer for monday daytime into the 70s. and then 20s monday night. thats gonaa be a sight to see, lets see if the cold air makes in like the models say, im thinking its unlikely we drop below freezing as long as theres cloud cover.

either way the weather channel just showed us right on the rain / mix line with the snow up towards the mason dixon line down into bmore. i still dont see the accumulating snow scenario playing out.

Satellite pic shows the cloud break was just a break and clouds are now moving back in. A big blob of them going all the way to Ohio, which means they won't clear our area until close to the sun going down. Looking out my office window here in Fairfax it's getting clouded over again and some clouds even have dark gray bottoms. So let the records show the "10" and "nice day" lasted from 12-3pm, 3 hours.

I am very satisfied my forecast verified today and we did indeed break the record high temperatures at DCA & IAD -- despite those clouds that were so worrying everyone ;) Everyone able to enjoy the day today? Plans to eat al fresco tonight?