For the third year in a row, the Internet of Things has dominated CES. More than 900 companies out of 3,800 at the show said they had Internet of Things products. Andrew Begin at Mirum observed that the IoT has “caught fire in a big way” and Perry Simpson at Direct Marketing predicted that the IoT will solidify “from marketing dream to full on marketing channel.”

But not everybody was impressed: “IoT remains mired in smart light bulbs, net-connected cameras and wireless speakers,” opined Andrew Tarantola at Engadget, “the same sorts of bland, iterative use cases we’ve been seeing since the term was first coined.” Pam Baker at FierceBigDatacomplained that “IoT data products were again in overdrive, many in outright overkill, and the same problems with data deluge still existed,” and Todd Hixon offered this on Forbes: “The fundamental problem is, there is still no killer app for IOT: something a large group of customers really care about and just have to have.”

So what’s the state-of-the-IoT and where is it going? Here’s a summary of data and predictions from Forrester, Machina Research, the World Economic Forum (WEF), Gartner, and IDC (see a list of specific sources at the end of this post).

Enterprise IoT spending larger than consumer spending in the near-term.

The IoT will drive a shift from selling products to providing service.

IoT security will become a significant component of security budgets and security concerns will slow IoT adoption

IoT analytics will become a data science specialization and a top in-demand job

There will be some pruning of competing IoT networking options but no dominant platforms and standards

Virtual and augmented reality will add a new dimension to the IoT, for both consumer and enterprise applications

Forrester

In a new TechRadar report, Forrester states that “Internet of Things (IoT) technologies are diverse and immature.” Most of the 19 IoT technologies identified in the report are in “Survival and Growth phase today,” and the development of standards and robust security is key to their success: “Standards are nascent, as vendors are only a couple of years into the process of creating general-purpose interoperability standards. And IoT security technologies are still in the Creation phase, with no established products.”

Forrester says that the IoT is a “business-led trend,” and reports that 23% of enterprises use the IoT, with another 29% planning to do so within 12 months. They use the IoT to transform their business models by moving from one-time product transactions to ongoing product-as-a-service relationships, optimize utilization of physical and financial assets, and to create new forms of customer engagement.

In its 2016 predictions document, Forrester saw in its crystal ball these 2016 developments:

–At least one company will coach Wall Street investors on how to follow their evolution from product to service revenues, just as Adobe and Microsoft have as they made the switch from selling perpetual licenses to selling software-as-a-service (SaaS).

–Enterprise customers and consumers will automatically ask product sellers about the sensor capabilities in the mobile app for a new machine tool or a refrigerator.

–One or more companies will report the number of connected products they have in operation with customers, plus the number of connected customers they serve.

–IoT will create massive volumes of time-series data and IoT analytics will become a specialized category and discipline.

–10% of drivers will use new auto “appcessories”—smartphone-enabled devices for their cars—that retrofit some connected car features to older cars.

Machina Research

–We will start to feel the first heartbeat of the new IoT economy and the shift from selling products to providing service as at least one Fortune 500 company will fundamentally change how it values, underwrites or trades assets based on the data generated by IoT.

–The need for an IoT push from a C-level executive will be met as at least one Fortune 500 company will appoint a Chief IoT Officer.

–Corrective analytics—a security option to apply automated corrective measures based on actual real-time outcomes rather than predicted or prescriptive actions—will emerge as a fail-safe approach across a range of sectors.

–A household name in IoT will file for bankruptcy while at least one will be bought for a price that breezes through the 100x revenue multiple.

–At least one of the major Low-Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) technologies today will effectively be rendered redundant but there will still be more technology fragmentation.

By 2020, addressing compromises in IoT security will have increased security costs to 20% of annual security budgets, from less than one percent in 2015.

IDC

–Worldwide spending on IoT will grow at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from $698.6 billion in 2015 to nearly $1.3 trillion in 2019.

–40% of the worldwide total IoT spending in 2015 came from Asia/Pacific.

–By 2018, there will be 22 billion IoT devices installed, driving the development of over 200,000 new IoT apps and services.

–The worldwide wearable device market will reach a total of 111.1 million units shipped in 2016, up 44.4% from the 80 million units shipped in 2015. By 2019, total shipments will reach 214.6 million units, a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28%.