"All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"

Grand_Moff_Joseph:"All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"

Which makes it a good time to put the GOP "all-in" because you know those fish will call.

Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.

Well, I just went to TrueFreedomF-150JesusPoll.org and they're using actual science to prove that Romney is going to win with 1,076 Electoral Votes AND that he'll win the popular vote six billion to zero, as people around the world hold spontaneous elections demanding a Romney presidency and giving the Republicans a majority of 15,265-0 in the House.

Of course, they'll still blame Democrat obstructionism on that abortion ban they keep promising, but...

Grand_Moff_Joseph:"All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"

Mr. Coffee Nerves:Well, I just went to TrueFreedomF-150JesusPoll.org and they're using actual science to prove that Romney is going to win with 1,076 Electoral Votes AND that he'll win the popular vote six billion to zero, as people around the world hold spontaneous elections demanding a Romney presidency and giving the Republicans a majority of 15,265-0 in the House.

Of course, they'll still blame Democrat obstructionism on that abortion ban they keep promising, but...

I went to "truefreedomf-150jesuspoll.org" so that I can keep my hopes up for a Romney victory but I got this instead... "Firefox can't find the server at truefreedomf-150jesuspoll.org."

YOU LIE. Why would you keep my hopes up with a fake link?

I'm predicting Romney wins every state except for that Chinese communist state of Hawaii.

sammyk:Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.

Doubt it will be called til very late. Polls don't close in the panhandle until 8 eastern, will be prolly midnight before close to calling it.

sammyk:Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.

It was a coin-flip yesterday and a coin-flip today. I'm not sure there's much more to say about that.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Sort of depends on what you mean by "hotly contested". In any election more important than American Idol, a consistent 1% lead long-term is actually considered pretty reliable, and 2-3% is considered damned near unassailable.

Albeit that's talking about actual elections and _average_ poll numbers over extended periods at the state level, national-level numbers are more volatile but less important and individual polls can run all over the place. But, for instance, Texas is considered a deep-red state that's so Republican you shouldn't even bother campaigning here because of a gap on the order of like five percent in voter registration/polling/presidential voting, and no one bothers with CA because of a similar swing the other way.

//As always, note that polling analysis isn't what I do for a living or anything, so take this with the usual internet grain of salt.

sammyk:Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.

Nate's 55% or 52.5% refer to the candidates chances of winning the state based on computer simulations, not the poll numbers. A small gain in the polls can lead to a larger gain in chance of winning when other variables are factored in. The swings are higher so close to the election because the time has run out for a last minute game changer. Therefore even a small lead means a high percentage of victory.

Obama didn't gain 7% in Florida's polls. His odds of winning Florida went up by 7%.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.

Earpj:theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

I'll be clenching right along with you.

I am Toby right now:

TOBYPut it down! Put it down! Put it down!

BONNIEToby...

TOBYNo champagne.

BONNIEWe're just getting ready to...

TOBYPut it down. Everyone in this room let me have your attention, please. The law of ourland mandates that Presidential appointees be confirmed by a majority of the Senate.A majority being half plus one for a total of what, Ginger?

GINGER51.

TOBY51 yea votes is what we see on the screen before a drop of wine is swallowed! Becausethere's a little thing called what, Bonnie?

BONNIETempting fate?

TOBY"Tempting fate" is what it's called. [starts collecting champagne glasses from everyone]In the three months this man has been on my radar screen, I have aged 48 years. This ismy day of jubilee and I will not have it screwed up by what, Bonnie?

God Is My Co-Pirate:Earpj: theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

I'll be clenching right along with you.

I am Toby right now:

TOBYPut it down! Put it down! Put it down!

BONNIEToby...

TOBYNo champagne.

BONNIEWe're just getting ready to...

TOBYPut it down. Everyone in this room let me have your attention, please. The law of ourland mandates that Presidential appointees be confirmed by a majority of the Senate.A majority being half plus one for a total of what, Ginger?

GINGER51.

TOBY51 yea votes is what we see on the screen before a drop of wine is swallowed! Becausethere's a little thing called what, Bonnie?

BONNIETempting fate?

TOBY"Tempting fate" is what it's called. [starts collecting champagne glasses from everyone]In the three months this man has been on my radar screen, I have aged 48 years. This ismy day of jubilee and I will not have it screwed up by what, Bonnie?

BONNIEBy tempting fate.

TOBYBy tempting fate!

Thank you! I wanted to post that exchange as well, but I couldn't find a video clip for it.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

I think most people would have gone with Rome as the comparative collapsing empire, rather than Greece, as Rome's collapse was due to far more internal strife and political conflict than Greece and its largely fiduciary failings created through not having a unified monetary policy with the EU, but getting to borrow money at EU rates. But, otherwise, 2/10.

The fact that a former vulture capitalist who has been running for President for 7 years, has changed his opinion on every major electoral issue within the past 10 years, has not outlined a definitive budget plan past mathematically impossible platitudes, declared disdain for half the country, and lied repeatedly to the point where his lies aren't even newsworthy anymore is going to get more than 2% of the vote is quite disturbing.

The fact that people are openly advocating FOR him to be President is just plain scary.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.

These guys had no problem running up 5 trillion dollars in debt all while receiving the extra tax revenue from the housing boom but during the crash when government spending could help prop up the economy and help cash strapped states who are getting less property tax revenue they have this huge problem with the debt. Republicans have zero credibility on the economy it's a sad state of affairs that people can buy into the line of shiat he is repeating there.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.

Facts are Obama just added 6 trillion to the debt in 4 years, and the outlook means at least another 4 if he gets elected. Facts are we have terribly growth, terrible unemployment, entitlement spending is exploding, and people are dropping out of the work force.

math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good. And Republicans had nothing to do with the housing crisis which caused the recession, no matter how much you want it to. We are done, period. At a certain point, you just cannot recover. Interest payments alone on the debt are now 350 billion a year I believer. 4 more years of Bambam it will be at 500 billion. Will just go up from there. Can tax the rich all you want, won't make a dent and will just slow growth.

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.

Antimatter:No celebrating till it's over here. I'm really afraid of GOP election fraud at this point. I don't put it past them to try to steal the votes for a swing state or two.

Just go ahead and accept that Ohio is going for Romney. Accept it now and it won't bother you alter. Then laugh and chuckle to yourself when you realize he still needs to win Virginia, Florida, and a half dozen other swing states.

Thunderpipes:Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

bulldg4life:The fact that a former vulture capitalist who has been running for President for 7 years, has changed his opinion on every major electoral issue within the past 10 years, has not outlined a definitive budget plan past mathematically impossible platitudes, declared disdain for half the country, and lied repeatedly to the point where his lies aren't even newsworthy anymore is going to get more than 2% of the vote is quite disturbing.

The fact that people are openly advocating FOR him to be President is just plain scary.

I liken this election to last week Packers game (I live in Wisconsin, so bear with me). They were playing Arizona. Everybody picked Green Bay to win. Everybody knew Green Bay was going to win. They were a 5-to-1 favorite. Heck, probably some players for Arizona knew Green Bay was going to win. However, there was a monent in the third quarter where Arizona was on the 2-yard line looking to score a touchdown that would've brought them to within 3 points. It was close. Was Arizona actually going to pull this game out? The answer, of course, was no. Because Arizona is, well, Arizona and they're too one dimensional of a team...and that one dimension is very good. Meanwhile Green Bay is that much better, and they should've won that game going away. What I'm trying to say is Romney is like Arizona and Obama is like Green Bay. Obama should be blowing out Romney, but he's not. however, he's still leading the game late and will more than likely put it away by the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter.