2019 Masters DFS Preview

It’s finally
here, Happy Masters week everyone! Not much of an introduction is needed as the
first major of the year is considered by many as the best tournament of the
year because of the venue and its iconic layout so we will jump right into the course
breakdown:

Augusta National: Par 72, 7,475 yards. Augusta is known for its wide
fairways, elevation changes, slick and undulating greens, and pristine
conditioning. The only major change in the layout from last year is an
additional 40 yards of length added to the par four 5th that will
now measure 495 yards. That is a good lead in to mentioning that this course is
truly a bombers layout with fairways that are 10% easier than the PGA Tour
average to hit. Every par four with the exception of the third hole measures at
440 yards or longer and every par five is reachable in two. This provides big
hitters with the advantage of being able to hit shorter irons into to the 14
two shot holes and allows them to be more aggressive with their targets, taking
on pins that players hitting less lofted clubs from further out do not have the
luxury of firing at. In addition, the dispersion patterns tend to be much smaller
the closer the approach shot is stuck from which is key to keeping yourself out
of trouble on or around the greens. The greens at Augusta see three putts at nearly
twice the rate as other venues played during the year as the size and undulation
of the greens is not done justice when watching the event on TV. This also
makes getting up and down more difficult so it is important that players not
only hit the greens, but hit them in the right places as we often hear players
and caddies state that hitting the right quadrant of each green based on the days
pin placement is essential.

In terms of
stats, strokes gained off the tee will be my most heavily weighted stat due to
the wide fairways, short rough, and increased length that has been added on to
the course players that are long off the tee will have a clear advantage and
this will be amplified if there is some moisture on the ground. It’s much more
difficult to hit a specific quadrant of a green repeatedly over four days when
your approaches are being hit with a 5 or 6 iron and compared to the bombers
who will be hitting 8 and 9 irons so it’s hard to understate the importance of
being long off the tee at Augusta. Also critical this week will be the ability
of players to hit the right areas of the green as the slope and speed of the
greens will make birdies difficult to come by and three putts a real
possibility for those who are out of position on the greens. Lastly, you will
want to target players who can score on the par fives as all four are very
gettable and every par made will be losing ground to the field.

Here are our top
stats to consider this week:

Strokes Gained Off the Tee

Strokes Gained Approach

Par Five Efficiency

Three Putt Avoidance

Birdie or Better Percentage

The Masters has
the smallest field of any of the four majors at 87 golfers. Of the 87 there
will be around 20-25 players, comprised of past champions over 55 and amateurs,
who we can say are not legitimate contenders to win. This leaves us with
approximately 50 – 60 rosterable golfers for DFS purposes. The cut rule this
week will be low 50 golfers or all players within 10 strokes of the lead after
36 holes. This tells us two things. 1. It is imperative that you get all six of
your golfers thru the cut in order to cash in any GPP and most likely any cash
game as well. 2. In order to secure a high finish in any GPP you’ll likely need
to roster the winner as well as multiple other players who finish in the top
ten. Because of this we will also need to hunt for some upside in addition to
cut makers at every roster spot. With that said, let’s get to the picks. Here
are three targets for your cash game / single entry tournament (GPP) lineups on
DraftKings:

Upper
Mid-Range – Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200

You’ll see a
theme here in this week’s article plays as all three players have been showing
red hot form on their approaches, an attribute I feel should pay dividends this
week as the trick Augusta greens require you to be extremely precise as a
missed green in the wrong spot or hitting a green in the wrong quadrant could create
a likely bogey or three putt, while hitting your spots will provide a makeable
birdie opportunity as a reward. I will start it off with Tommy Fleetwood, who has
been one of the best mid to long iron players in the game over the past year
and also has the distance off the tee to compete at Augusta. I don’t believe the
moment will be too big for him as he booked top 20 finishes in the first three
majors of the year in 2018 that included a T17 at the Masters. Starting a
roster with Fleetwood is a great way to go if you are taking the balanced
approach in cash games as it allows you to roster another 2-3 players in the $8K
and up range without taking too much risk at the bottom of your roster.

Mid-Range
– Hideki Matsuyama – $8,700

Hideki has been in
a groove recently from tee to green as he has gained an average of 8.7 strokes
per event over his last six when it comes to his play off the tee, on approaches,
and around the green. The only thing holding him back are his struggles on the
green but we could be seeing this trend reverse as he finally gained strokes
putting at the PLAYERS. Hideki has also had a solid record at Augusta and has
not putted poorly relative to the field here historically. This is a great spot
to hop on board as we want to make sure we are there when the flatstick comes
around. I’m also optimistic given the control he has been showing on approaches
will provide him with plenty of birdie opportunities to help build his confidence
on the slick Augusta greens early in the week.

Value
– Matt Kuchar – $7,900

Given his current
form and history at Augusta National it seems like a misprice that we see Matt
Kuchar at $7,900. Although he doesn’t fit the bomber narrative, he has finished
in the top 10 here in four out of his last nine Masters starts. Also, his iron
play as of late has been on another level, gaining 7.5 strokes on approaches at
the PLAYERS and 8.6 strokes on approaches at the Valero en route to a 7th
place finish.