Video 15:55
Michael Duffy, Washington Bureau chief, Time Magazine

Tony Jones
Wed 2 Oct 2013, 11:27 PM AEST

Washington Bureau Chief for Time Magazine, Michael Duffy, discusses the US government shutdown and the possibility that further blocking action by the Tea Party Republicans could force the government to default on its debt repayments for the first time in history.

Transcript

TONY JONES, PRESENTER: Joining us from the US capital is the Washington bureau chief and executive editor of Time Magazine Michael Duffy.

TONY JONES: Now the US national opinion polls tell us that most people oppose the shutting down of government as a way of trying to stop ObamaCare. Is that likely to sway the Tea Party Republicans at the heart of this?

MICHAEL DUFFY: No, not at all. There won't be any change in this particular situation I'm guessing for another week at least, maybe even 10 days. I think the Government will be shut down irrespective of what the polls say simply because the Tea Party members in the Lower House here have enough votes to stop funding for the next fiscal year. So I think we're going to be here for at least a week and maybe 10 days.

TONY JONES: Now, why that one-week-to-10-day time limit, Michael? What will change in that period?

MICHAEL DUFFY: OK, what I'm about to say will make very little sense. It makes very little sense to Americans, so I'm not sure it's going to make a whole lot of sense to Australians, but here I go. The members of the conservative Tea Party faction, who are basically oppose government in general and are horrified by federal spending across the board, believe that a week is about the amount of time it will take for them to make their point, that they have shut down the Government, halted federal payments, and this is across the board from parks to, you know, to sort of entitlement programs to all sorts of other things. And at that point, having made their statement, they will come back to the table and cut some kind of a deal. So I think they feel they have a demonstration underway here, rather like a protest and they're playing with a very big equity, that is to say, the, you know, faith and credit of the US Government. But that is the way they think and they have just enough votes now in a way they haven't in the last 50 years to make their point stick.

TONY JONES: So, what are the majority of Republicans, let's say the moderate Republicans, many of whom think they're being hijacked by this Tea Party in their midst?

MICHAEL DUFFY: Well, I think they think that this faction is a little kooky and a little crazy and a little restless, though quite ardent. But since almost all of those Republicans face election next year and are in danger of facing more conservative challenges from their right in primary campaigns, they can't really risk a lot of independence. Most of the money in our political system in the last year that has begun to move into campaign finance coffers is conservative, far-right money and those moderates know that if they step forward now and say, you know, "This is nuts," they will face a primary challenge from their right. So there's a great amount of cowardice in the Republican Party now and a lot of conservative money and so I think it will go on like this for some time and I think even after this pass, Tony - we can talk about this later - this may be a pattern in American politics for a long time to come.

TONY JONES: Yeah, we will talk about it later and we'll try and analyse a little bit about what these Tea Party people are thinking and where they are at their base. But in the meantime, how much pressure is the Republican Speaker John Boehner under? Because he had appeared to be taking a more moderate or middle course earlier this year. He actually moved to help get three major pieces of legislation through with only minority support from Republicans.

MICHAEL DUFFY: Boehner is a very funny character. Unlike Newt Gingrich of a decade ago, who was big and brash and kind of easy to hate, Boehner is the opposite. He's low-key, low-profile, reasonable and kind of hard to hate. He's told all sorts of people - his aides, his friends, his allies here in town and in Ohio where he's from - that he would never let it come to this, but when the push has come to shove, he has let it come to this and we have to judge him by his actions as certainly more than his words. He has sent a lot of signals in the last couple of days, in the last 24 hours in particular, that while he was alright with this government shutting down here when the fiscal year ended because there was no budget for the next year, he will not let this happen in a week or two when we hit that debt ceiling vote when the Government runs out of the ability to borrow. He will not let the Government go into default. He has said this to friends and to his enemies, including to the White House. So there is some feeling in town, Tony, that Boehner has taken the easy shutdown, the one that comes here fiscally at the end of the spending year, but will not let the Government default on its debts and its payments when we hit that second deadline in about a fortnight.

TONY JONES: Yeah, that's actually - I was gonna say that is very interesting to hear that because everyone fears what happens as you get closer to this fiscal cliff and certainly the Tea Party Republicans and they now - there is enough of them now to force the Speaker out of power if necessary. How determined will they be to oppose that position that he's going to take?

MICHAEL DUFFY: Of the 230 or so Republicans in the lower chamber of - the total is about 435 - there are about 40 to 50 hardcore Tea Party members, people who will essentially do anything to shoot the hostage, burn down the house, you can call them the suicide caucus of the Republican Party. That group will fight - will vote against any kind of extension of spending or borrowing authority when that vote comes. But Boehner will not, I think, go there. He will then reach out to the Democrats and ask for help if he has to. That's what he has been saying, as I said in the last 72 hours privately, which gives the market some confidence, has certainly got the White House convinced they're not heading into a default. I think the only reason to be sceptical or cautionary about that is that he has issued assurances like that before even about this round, the fiscal shutdown, and not come through. So, I think there is some cautious optimism that Boehner will straighten up and fly right, do the right thing in a fortnight, but everyone would feel more comfortable if they saw it actually happen.

TONY JONES: Now Tom Freedman makes the point in the New York Times today that the Tea Party representatives won't end up getting punished in their own electorates for the shutdown because many of them come from very safe seats that have been made even safer in recent years by the gerrymandering of these seats and divisions by state Republican governments. Is that the case?

MICHAEL DUFFY: I don't know. It sounds about half right to me, they are in safe seats. They win their districts by very large majorities, far more than Mitt Romney was winning those districts in the presidential election. But I don't really see much danger for the Republicans here, I don't. I think that's where the Democrats are not reading the landscape right. I think these members are voting very much the way the majority in their districts, which are usually quite Republican, want them to vote. I don't think it's illogical from that point of view. I think they're representing the majority of their districts. Some of these places, you know, are all white, very Southern, not particularly like the populations on the coasts. So I don't see a lot of danger for them. They came to do - they're doing what they came to town to do. What's curious, I guess, even to Americans is that, you know, this is supposed to be a democracy where we have a government of the many, not the government of the few and we're really in a situation here where the minority is ruling and a tiny minority. This might be 15 or 20 per cent of the caucus in the House and they might represent seven or eight per cent of the population and they're very effectively controlling things. But I don't think they're in any danger at all. I think this might surprise some Democrats that this will not hurt them.

TONY JONES: Well I suppose that's true if it really is only a symbolic protest where they shut down or have a partial shutdown that lasts for a week. If it goes for longer, there's much more of a risk for the Republicans, isn't there?

MICHAEL DUFFY: Everyone. I mean, then I think we have such an economic dislocation and a change in attitude about the markets that there would be a much bigger backlash. I don't think everyone would be safe. You know, it's important to note here that as rather reckless as the Republicans are being, the Democrats are perfectly fine with this. The White House is thrilled with this situation. They may complain about the shutdown, Tony, and say this is horrible and it may well be horrible for a week or two, but politically they think they're winning every day at the White House. They think it makes the Republicans look foolish in the eyes not only of their voters, but of independents. They think is a very good setup for whatever congressional elections come next year. I'm not sure everyone's memory is that long. But what's interesting to me about this moment in Washington is that both parties, Democrats and Republicans, like the ground on which they're fighting. They both think that it helps them. They both believe this is good for their futures. And it's a sign that they have put their own quest for power ahead of the interests of the country.

TONY JONES: So, why, at the heart of this of course is ObamaCare, which is only now sort of really starting to begin as people sign up online and it must be said there've been a lot of problems or teething problems with that online signup process and some say the Republicans are missing a chance here. They could be criticising ObamaCare for that, for not being implemented properly. But in the end, why are they so fiercely - the Tea Party in particular, so fiercely opposed to it?

MICHAEL DUFFY: This is really the core question about everything going on in our politics now. You know, and I think fundamentally at the core of all of this, the first fight, the second fight, the two parties, we're having a classic debate about the size and role of government in our lives. Republicans look at Barack Obama and ObamaCare as Exhibit A and they say, "This is the confirmation of what Republicans believe is an entitlement society, a country or a nation in which there are certain more takers than makers. That the Government is now paying for everything for everyone - health care, day care, senior care, everything under the sun." The welfare state, in the view of the Republicans, is now nearly complete and they don't see a way to unravel it or crank it back and to some extent the Republicans here and the Tea Party in particular is simply stamping its foot and saying, "It's too big, it's too expensive. The only way we can stop it is to stop everything." So at the core of it is this - is that debate. And the President has talked more in this second term about his vision of that sort of society. Whether you hear those words - I hear more a dog whistle kind of code - the Republicans think that the day has - the dark day of an entitlement society has arrived and this is their reaction. And that's a real debate about issues. It's not a pretty - what's happening is not a pretty statement about how well we do things here, it's really ugly and messy, but at the core of it is an argument about ideas.

TONY JONES: Michael, could they also be worried that it might actually work because in many respects it targets a lot of the, let's say, lower middle class, lower wage families that actually vote Republican and many of them actually don't have insurance? If it turns out to be attractive, they might switch votes.

MICHAEL DUFFY: There was a great moment on Rush Limbaugh, the right-wing radio commentator's show about a week ago when Ted Cruz, the filibustering Texas senator, who's, if anyone, probably the face of this revolt this year, went on Rush Limbaugh and he said - it was on I think August 28th, Tony - you know, "We have to stop ObamaCare now because if we let it go into effect, the public will like it and they won't ever want to give it up." So in the context of that thing I said a minute ago about the arrival and the completion of the welfare state, the Republicans and conservatives and people who believe the government is too big and too generous, do believe that if this is allowed to take affect - as we said, it started yesterday - and is allowed to work, that there will be no shutting the door on this arrangement - relationship between the Government and the people. It will be a new day.

I would just make one thing. Republicans have been very successful in filling ObamaCare full of Swiss cheese holes. I mean, there are exemptions and dropouts and slowdowns and delays and 23 states aren't participating in a bunch of it. They've done a very good job of making it imperfect and it looks more like a chain link fence than a wall, but they also know that as it is enacted in various states where everything is taking place, the public will like it and the hospitals will like it and the power structure will begin to embrace it and then it will be really hard to reverse.

TONY JONES: Well, that of course assumes that it works as it is meant to with all these flaws kind of built into it. But there are 48 million Americans without insurance. The interesting thing about this is that it is available, subsidies available for families of four who make up to $94,000 a year. So it's not only for the very poor. This is hitting lower middle income families as well and hitting them in a way that they might like, is what I mean.

MICHAEL DUFFY: Right. You really put your finger on it: that if it is enacted in enough places and allowed to work well, it's going to become very popular. And its constituency, you also hinted - you're a better analyst of US politics than I am, Tony - if - the constituents who will like it tend to be Democrats, they tend to be lower income folks, they tend to be folks without full-time jobs or without certainly full-time health care. And in the Republican point of view, this is another way in which the Democratic Party is buying the support of millions of Americans who are sort of squishy on politics and don't follow this stuff. So, all of that has great ramifications for the future in their view and it's one of the reasons they're trying to stop it at all cost now.

TONY JONES: Michael Duffy, of course we've had some form of socialised medicine in Australia, the US, most of Europe for a long time. Once those things get into place, they're very hard to remove, I think it's fair to say. We'll have to leave you there. We thank you very much for joining us.