Tropical cyclone CARLOS, the 3rd named storm of the 2015 East Pacific hurricane season reached hurricane strength earlier today off the coast of Mexico. The hurricane is generating sustained 120 kph winds, with higher gusts, while its track has shifted slightly to the east.

Projected track of hurricane CARLOS as of 13 June [Courtesy of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory]

The new projected track of hurricane Carlos will take it closer to the coastline of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta than previously anticipated and toward the Gulf of California earlier this coming week. Because of its slow forward motion this storm has the potential for causing significant damage by way of coastal flooding, including instances of flash floods, because of the copious rain it is generating over the region.

Infrared GOES EAST satellite image [NOAA] of 13 June showing the low pressure system generating copious rain and stormy weather over a vast region from southern Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean to Central America and Panama

Hurricane Carlos is paralleled by a low pressure system of the east coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico, that is generating stormy weather and vast amounts of rain over the Yucatan Peninsula, southern Mexico, and most of Central America and the central and northwestern Caribbean basin. This system is traversing the Yucatan peninsula and it is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where in may intensify under a favorable ocean-atmosphere environment.

While Mexico experiences impacts of both coastlines, and Central America continues to suffer extreme rain events and instances of flooding that have already caused significant damage to buildings and infrastructure as well as death by drowning, there is plenty of fuel for potential further adverse weather activity in coming days, in the form of storm cells pushing westward along ‘hurricane alley’, pushed by tropical waves emerging from Equatorial Africa over the eastern Atlantic.

All interests in the Caribbean basin, the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, Central America and Mexico must monitor these systems closely, remaining always alert and prepared, and engaged in the practice of mitigation!