Updated:

Thu,Apr 10th 2008 @ 9:38 pm EDT

Above-replacement-level immigration has doubled U.S. population growth.

There were 203
million people living in the U.S. in 1970 -- we'll call them "1970-stock Americans."
Births to that population have exceeded their deaths, resulting in the growth
illustrated in the green block.

The green shows
how much growth the U.S. would have had since 1970 if the number of immigrants
arriving each year was the same as the number of Americans permanently moving
away (currently that is an estimated 225,000). That is known as "replacement-level
immigration."

The red block shows the population growth cause by immigration policies of the U.S. government. It accounts for more than half of population growth since 1970. Although its frontiers were declared closed a
century ago, the United States today is adding population at a numerical level
just under the phenomenal Baby Boom, which far exceeded all other periods of
U.S. population growth.

Why is their natural population growth (as shown by the green area), even though birth rates have fallen below replacement levels?

Well, it takes
decades for a country's population to stabilize after women adopt a family size
that is on average 2.1 children. Their children have to finish having their
children. Those children have to have their babies and the original mothers
have to die off before full stabilization occurs.

A country that
wants to stabilize its population has to start around 70 years in advance if
fertility drops only to the 2.1 replacement level. Americans have had fertility
since 1972 that is somewhat below replacement level. So stabilization could
occur a bit sooner.

But even during
the 70-year wait for stabilization, a country is able to enjoy substantially
reduced population growth. That means the country can enjoy the resulting lowered
demands for expanded infrastructure and mass urban development of farmland and
natural habitat.

Americans, however,
can enjoy none of that, thanks to Congress and its incredible increase in immigration.

If the chart had been started at any other date in U.S. history, wouldn't it have looked very similar?

No. The last quarter
century has been a unique period in U.S. demographic history.

Any other quarter-century
slice would show the green --not the red-- as the majority of population growth.
And not other period except for the Baby Boom (1946-64) would show anywhere
close to this much total growth.

At no other time in this country, have recent immigrants and their children (the red block) dominated
population growth.

That has many political
and sociological ramifications. It means that for the first time in U.S. history
when Americans are asked to raise taxes or pay higher prices to provide additional
schools, roads, cleaner air, etc., they are asked to do so not for the additional
population and conditions they are creating but for the sake primarily of foreign-born residents and their children.

The majority of all new additional infrastructure needs over the past quarter century are the
result of Washington's immigration policies.

Thus, the costs Americans are asked to cover are ones that Congress (through immigration policies),
and not American families (through their fertility), have created.

What is meant by "Total U.S. population"?

The circled numbers
represent the U.S. Population in millions. The top line of the chart represents
the total population of the United States each year.

In 1970, the U.S. population was about 203 million.

Today it has surpassed 293 million.

These numbers come
from the U.S. Bureau of the Census which counted the residents of the country
in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and a revised projection done by the Census in 2002.
All other years are estimated by the Census Bureau based on what was learned
in the previous Census, on targeted surveys done each year and on other projection
devices.

Does the red block include illegal aliens?

No.

The bar graph counts only the annual number of legal immigrants.

If illegal aliens could be accurately counted and included, it is likely that the 1966-89 period would be revealed as being even more disparate from earlier eras. Illegal immigration is believed to be far higher during recent decades than in the past.

The Census Bureau estimates there are 8 million illegal immigrants currently in the U.S.

On annual illegal immigration, the Center for Immigration Studies has extrapolated the latest Census data to show that 700,000 to 800,000 new illegal aliens are settling each year. Now, far, far more than that enter illegally each year, but there is a lot of back and forth. The 700,000 to 800,000 represents illegals who truly settle in for at least a couple of years, and usually much, much longer. .

Why do these charts start at the 203-million level?

These charts are about growth.

They are not about
the total U.S. population -- except tangentially -- but about any additional
growth in that population.

Astute chart readers
are conditioned to raise questions when they see charts that start somewhere
other than at zero. By picking a starting point proportionately far above zero,
a chartmaker may be able to distort the impression of the information being
portrayed.

But that is not
what is happening here.

Because these charts
are about population growth -- and because there were 203 million people in
this country in 1970 -- they reveal only the U.S. population above 203 million.

While the 203 million
people who are not shown here play a role in plans for roads, schools, parks,
sewers and other infrastructure, it is the addition of residents that creates
the greatest challenges.

These charts focus
on the millions of people who are being added to the roads, schools, parks,
and laborforce.

This information
comes from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

To find similar
population growth in foreign countries, we must look to the Third World.

Although its frontiers
were declared closed a century ago, the United States today is adding population
at a numerical level just under the phenomenal Baby Boom, which far exceeded
all other periods of U.S. population growth.

Why do these charts start at 1970?

The era since 1970
has been a unique period of American history. It is the only time that the federal
government and the American people have moved in opposite directions in creating
the country's demographic future: The American people have chosen family sizes
that allow for a stablized U.S. population; the federal government has chosen
policies to force never-ending U.S. population growth.

The year 1970 is
around the time of several great changes in America:

1. It was around
1970 -- the year of the first Earth Day -- when the American people made a collective
commitment to stop squandering their environmental resources and to restore
the natural world within their nation's borders to a healthy and sustainable
quality. Major laws were passed and agencies established to see that the environmental
goals were met. The American people and U.S. companies spent billions of dollars
to meet the goals.

2. It was around
1970 that most environmental experts began to agree that it would be difficult
for the nation to reach its environmental goals without stabilizing its population
at a level not too much higher than the 203 million with which the country began
the decade.

3. Although no
official population goal was set, a bi-partisan presidential-congressional commission
recommended moving toward a stable population to meet environmental, economic
and social goals that had been adopted during the Johnson and Nixon administrations.

4. In 1972, the
American people -- fresh from a historic Baby Boom -- lowered their fertility
to "replacement level." Ever since, American fertility has been low enough to
allow the population size eventually to stabilize.

5. It was around
1970 that the number of legal immigrants allowed into the country began to rise
rapidly as a result of a change in the law back in 1965.

Since 1970, there
have been two contradictory blueprints for the nation's population future:

THE
PEOPLE'S BLUEPRINT:
The American people since just after 1970 have adopted behaviors and attitudes
that -- on their own -- would move the nation toward a stabilized population
size. Through millions of individual and highly personal choices, Americans
have adopted on average a family size of two or fewer children while telling
pollsters they want a stabilized national population.

WASHINGTON'S
BLUEPRINT
Since just before 1970, each Congress and each President has adopted a policy
allowing immigration far in excess of traditional levels and moving the nation
toward constant population increases.

The charts on these
pages show how these conflicting visions have affected the demographic direction
of the United States. As a Census year, 1970 offers the most logical starting
point for measurement.

By starting the
charts at 1970, we measure what has happened since around the beginning of the
era in which the majority of individual Americans in one way or another embraced
population stabilization as a goal.

Where does this data come from?

Demographer Leon
Bouvier of Tulane University did the computation for the green block by assuming
that nobody left the country or immigrated to it and then he simply: <

1. Took the population
size of each gender and age cohort living in the U.S. in 1970, as provided by
the U.S. Bureau of Census.

2. And applied
the actual annual fertility and mortality rates to those cohorts to find the
growth of the 1970-stock Americans.

NumbersUSA Education & Research Foundation provides a civil forum for Americans of all political and ethnic backgrounds to focus on a single issue, the numerical level of U.S. immigration. We educate opinion leaders, policymakers and the public on immigration legislation, policies and their consequences. We favor reductions in immigration numbers toward traditional levels that would allow present and future generations of Americans to enjoy a stabilizing U.S. population and a high degree of individual liberty, mobility, environmental quality, worker fairness and fiscal responsibility.

Those who need to refer to NumbersUSA with a short, descriptive modifier should call it an “immigration-reduction organization.”