What to Expect From the Jobs Report

The economy appears to be slowing and employers may be growing more cautious. But the extent of that slowdown could be muddied by quirks in the Labor Department’s employment report on Friday.

Economists forecast that the economy added around 150,000 jobs in April. That would be better than March’s 88,000 jobs, but still well off the job growth averaging more than 200,000 a month in the winter.

Jobless claims released Thursday show that employers are still holding onto their workers, pushing new unemployment filings to the lowest level in five years. Other figures suggest some degree of employment stability at U.S. companies. Employers may not be hiring much, but they’re not firing like they used to.

UBS economists forecast payroll growth of 130,000 jobs in April but warn that it’s because of “technical oddities rather than fundamental weakening” in the labor market. The gap between the Labor Department’s March and April surveys — four weeks instead of five weeks — “has historically been associated with April payrolls about 60,000 below the surrounding trend,” they write.

Weather also could be a factor. It turned out to be colder than usual in recent months after being milder than usual earlier in the year, High Frequency Economics notes. That could influence businesses (such as construction) or lead to quirks in the seasonal adjustments.

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