Covering Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland…

Before Christmas the Theory of Devolution team headed to Cardiff Bay to talk to BBC Wales’ Political Editor Betsan Powys about the WAG, covering devolved politics and the things to come in Welsh politics in 2011.

Covering devolution

Betsan talks about the BBC, its coverage of Welsh politics and how the WAG compares to Westminster.

The Scottish Parliament’s Scotland Bill Committee is hearing evidence from a range of constitutional academics on its adoption of the Scotland Bill, which will grant more powers to the devolved institution.

The Scotland Bill Committee discusses Scotland's tax-raising powers.

As The Herald reported earlier today, Oxford’s Professor Iain McLean has said that rejecting the Bill would be pointless, and would damage the SNP at the forthcoming election. He warned of increasing problems of compliance costs and tax avoidance if the Scottish Parliament was to have full tax raising powers, as the SNP is pushing for. Professor McLean said the ‘no detriment’ guarantees of the Bill would protect Scotland from losing out from changes to taxation around the UK, a key worry of the SNP’s.

The Committee will hear later today from Professor Drew Scott, Professor of European Union Studies at the University of Edinburgh and Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at George Mason University. If they are similarly supportive of the Scotland Bill, the SNP will be under further pressure to accept the Bill.

Alex Salmond gave an interview to the revamped Sunday Herald this weekend in which he spoke of turning the Scotland Bill ‘from a mouse to a lion‘ if the SNP wins the Scottish election in May.

UPDATE

Devolution Matters’ post on the Bill’s passage through three different legislative chambers, which I somehow missed earlier, is well worth a link.

It seems that 30% will be voting No at this juncture, with 8% not voting and 14% still to decide.

At the moment, the Assembly can only pass laws if the UK Parliament grants it the power to do so in specific devolved areas, a process that can take months or even years. This referendum could change all that.

A lot depends on the tactics that the two camps use. The Yes campaign, which is backed by all four major parties, is being run by Roger Lewis, the Chief Executive of the Welsh Rugby Union. Mr Lewis has said that he wants to run a “people’s campaign”, taking the case for a Yes vote in the “four corners of Wales”.

The details of the No campaign will almost certainly emerge when its campaign is launched, but True Wales are making much of the fact that they represent “ordinary people” from “all walks of life”, and that their website is “financed, produced and maintained by volunteers”.

The outcome will almost certainly depend on capturing the grass-roots imagination, and a high turnout could be key. Failure to get the people of Wales to the polling booths in March could spell ignominy for whoever is victorious.

Bar this, political news from the devolved nations has been rather thin on the ground.

St Athan and the costs of cancellation

So, today’s report in the Western Mail on the full costs of the now-ditched plan to concentrate UK Armed Forces training at RAF St Athan, in the Vale of Glamorgan, makes for interesting reading for starved politics bods.

The revelations, brought about by a Freedom of Information (FOI) request, are of spending on the project reaching £32.4m before its abrupt cancellation. Of this, £18.7m was spent on consultants.

The decision to cancel the project was announced in October’s Comprehensive Spending Review, though a scaled-down version of the programme may still go ahead.

Those behind the cancellation may argue finishing the project would need funds a cash-strapped Westminster currently lacks. But the revelation may reignite debate over this and other failed projects, including the Severn Estuary Barrage and thwarted ambitions to electrify the railway line from London to Swansea, both likely to bring employment across the border.

Leighton Andrew’s statement admitted the PISA results were a blow for education policy: “Our young people deserve better but I am confident that I can rely on the whole sector to support the actions necessary to bring about sustained, positive change.”

The honesty of Mr Andrews’ statements is “a bold political strategy,” says Sally Power, Professor of Social Sciences at Cardiff University.

“But he also shifts much of the responsibility onto the teaching system.”

The Learning Country?

Published in 2001, The Learning Country (TLC) document defined a 10-year comprehensive philosophy for education and lifelong learning.

Since then, the Welsh curriculum has moved away from the test-oriented strategy used elsewhere in the UK, toward a holistic strategy rooted in the (perhaps vague) idea of Welsh citizenship.

Mal Davies, headteacher at Willows High School in Cardiff, points out that the devolved education policy draws on the Finnish education system, which has delivered consistent results (this year the country is second for reading, mean score 536).

“We have moved away from teaching to the test, to a curriculum for preparing versatile, adaptive children not scared of new knowledge,” said Mr Davies.

What’s the problem?

In November, researchers from Bristol University claimed the decision to abolish league tables in 2001 had led to a decline in secondary school performance in Wales.

The study found the average English student would outperform their Welsh counterpart by two GCSE grades, growing to three in the poorest-performing quartile of schools.

Prof. Sally Power: Why have we declined?

With similar PISA results to Latvia and Lithuania, at far greater cost, some parties have argued that inefficiency is a de facto outcome of a bilingual education system.

Dr Phillip Dixon, director of ATL Cymru, believes Scotland’s improved performance is proof devolution itself is not to blame, but its inarguable that Welsh language education imposes additional costs on the system.

Welsh politicians have shown no inclination to address this particular minefield.

Professor David Egan was the Assembly’s special adviser for education during the last round of PISA assessments. He said: “In essence if we want to explain the PISA outcomes, a large part of that will lie in the insidious effect which poverty continues to have on our nation and its people, particularly our children.

Money is undoubtedly a factor. A child in Wales receives £527 per year less than their English equivalent, and the country has disproportionate number of rural schools that are too small to be cost-effective.

There is no single explanation, and a complex cocktail of unripe policies and socio-economic factors are to blame. “We need more research!” says Prof. Power.

Clouds on the Horizon

PISA recommendations:

raise the status of teachers by making it harder to become one

publish schools results

give the best schools more independence

Paul Davies says the Welsh Conservatives would fund schools directly from the Assembly purse, “to allow parents and head-teachers to run schools as they see fit –because they know what they need”.

Education Minister Leighton Andrews

He estimates direct funding would cut 4% from the schools budget: £102 million. That could be reinvested, but Mr Davies makes no promises.

Mr Andrews has also not ruled out direct funding for schools, and his department would welcome after November’s budget imposed swingeing cuts.

From a front-line perspective, Mal Davies urges caution: “These programs are still very young and they take time to grow through a system. It would be a great folly to change the strategy now”.

Blaming TLC policies is misleading when its first ‘subjects’ are still at Key Stage 2. It may be ten years until we see meaningful results.

But politicians are fair-weather creatures, and the PISA report has put the cat among the Assembly pigeons. The once-strong relationship between government and educators is strained, and the authority of TLC is in doubt.

Mr Davies summed up the new landscape: “I’m confident we are on the right track, but not that politicians have the courage to see these strategies to fruition.”