Monday, January 30, 2006

NCAA Tournament projections (week of Jan 30)

The last week has shed quite a bit of light on the college basketball season. Teams like Seton Hall and Temple had big weeks while other teams like Louisville and Wake Forest played their way out of the "projected" tournament field. I made a few changes to my "projected" automatic bids for the weaker conferences. I also added Seton Hall, S. Illinois, Arkansas and California to the at-large teams. They replaced Louisville, Wake Forest, Iowa St., and Missouri St.

I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. California

The Bears are easily the worst team that I have in the tournament field right now. Nonetheless, their 6-3 conference record could easily reach 9-3 with three easy conference games in a row. The Pac-10 will almost certainly get four bids to the tournament. UCLA, Washington, and Arizona will be three of those teams. Cal or Stanford will be the fourth. Both will likely finish with a +.500 record in the conference but only one will make it. As average as Cal's resume is, Stanford's is even worse.

RPI rating: 72Pomeroy rating: 56

Quality wins: UCLA, Washington, Akron, San Diego St.

Bad losses: @ Eastern Michigan, Oregon St.

2. Seton Hall

I didn't even have Seton Hall on my "waiting in the wings" list last week. The Pirates were 10-6 with no marquee wins. They were 1-3 in a loaded conference. Throw in the fact that they lost by 53 to Duke and Seton Hall seemed out of luck. That was before this week. No team has made a bigger one-week jump in terms of tournament chances than Seton Hall. They beat N. Carolina St. and Syracuse on the road to improve to 12-6 (3-3). If Seton Hall can just beat the bad teams left on the schedule, they should make the tournament.

RPI rating: 39Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: @ NC State, @ Syracuse, Manhattan, Iona

Bad losses: @ Richmond, Northwestern

3. Arkansas

Arkansas pulled the choke-job of all choke-jobs yesterday at Kentucky. A win would've pretty much sealed the Razorback's tourney fate. They were up by 18 before falling apart in the second half. It would've been such a disappointment to watch had I not known it was coming. Despite its best efforts to ruin its tourney hopes, I think Arkansas had done enough to date to merit a selection. Arkansas has beaten an impressive array of teams while limiting "bad losses" to just one. How the rest of the season plays out remains to be seen but if Arkansas can finish 9-7 in the SEC, they will probably get in.

RPI rating: 58Pomeroy rating: 41

Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Missouri St., Vanderbilt

Bad losses: Mississippi St.

4. Colorado

The Buffaloes are quite possibly the luckiest team in college basketball this season. They are the antithesis of Notre Dame which is by far the unluckiest team. Check the bottom of the post for more on Notre Dame's unlucky season. Colorado has exactly zero impressive wins. They've played two "good" teams this year and lost by more than ten in both games. Fortunately for Colorado, they play in the weak Big XII conference where they get a healthy dose of Nebraska, Baylor, Texas A & M, Texas Tech, and Kansas St. among others. That's why the Buffaloes are 15-3 with an RPI lower than St. Joseph's which stands at 9-8. Barring a major disaster, Colorado will make the tournament.

RPI rating: 47Pomeroy rating: 18

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: @ Colorado St.

5. Wichita St.

I think it's time people start arguing on behalf of the Missouri Valley Conference in a more vocal manner. This conference is definitely making a run at being considered a "major" in college basketball. The MVC has six teams in the RPI top 55. The conference has wins over Iowa, Indiana, LSU, and Xavier just to name a few. The MVC rates ahead of the Pac-10 and just percentage points behind the Big XII in the RPI. Of the top four teams in the MVC, Wichita St. probably has the least impressive resume. They don't have any marquee victories but they've beaten quality opponents without suffering any bad losses. Wichita St. should manage to rack up enough wins to make the tournament assuming the MVC gets the proper respect from the selection committee.

It would be unfortunate to see Iowa St's impressive wins over N. Iowa and Iowa go to waste but it appears as though that could be the case. Iowa St. stands at 3-4 in the Big XII with bad conference losses to Texas Tech and Texas A & M. If the Cyclones can't beat those teams, then they don't have much of a chance at finishing above .500 in the conference. They have a relatively easy stretch of games coming up. If they can get to .500 in conference, they might get a bid since the Big XII is short on tournament-deserving teams.

RPI rating: 57Pomeroy rating: 65

Quality wins: N. Iowa, Iowa, Northwestern St. (neutral site)

Bad losses: Fresno St., Texas Tech, Texas A & M

2. Missouri St.

Missouri St. has the computer ratings to get into the tournament but they don't have the quality wins to merit a selection. They have one win in the RPI top 100 which is a very low number. This team is good enough to win the MVC conference tournament but an at-large bid is probably out of reach unless Missouri St. finishes on a big winning streak.

RPI rating: 41Pomeroy rating: 48

Quality wins: S. Illinois

Bad losses: none

3. Temple

Temple did its best Seton Hall impersonation this week by catapulting onto the tournament bubble. The Owls were left for dead with a terrible loss to Auburn. However, Don Chaney's crew has won two straight over top 50 teams in Maryland and Xavier. If the Owls can finish 11-5 in the A-10, I think they'll get a bid. However, that means they'll have to go 7-2 in their last nine conference games. I'm not holding my breath.RPI rating: 38Pomeroy rating: 76

Quality wins: Miami (FL), Alabama, Xavier, Maryland

Bad losses: Auburn, Massachusetts

4. Bradley

Bradley doesn't have Missouri St's combination of computer rating and record, but I would argue that Bradley has a better set of wins. Bradley could easily win its next four games which would put them among the best bubble teams. If Bradley can finish 18-8, they might just make the tournament.

RPI rating: 55Pomeroy rating: 43

Quality wins: @ DePaul, W. Kentucky, N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St.

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Butler, @ Drake

5. Louisville

The Cardinals are finding out why it was crazy to leave Conference USA. What were they thinking? They would have easily made the tournament with a #5 seed this season if they had just stayed in Conference USA. Memphis certainly isn't griping about anything. Louisville has the players to make a run but the Big East is just too difficult. S. Florida is the only easy out on the schedule and even they have been playing teams tough lately. It would take a miracle for Louisville to turn the season around.

My guess is that Stanford or California will make the tournament. I'm also guessing that the Big XII would get a fifth team as long as that team finishes at .500 in conference. Iowa St. is really the only team that could grab the fifth spot. Alabama and Arkansas look to be battling for the last SEC spot. St. Joseph's and Temple have such high computer ratings that if either goes on a big winning streak, they could easily get an at-large bid despite their current records. Old Dominion has good computer ratings but they don't have a very impressive resume. As inconsistent as Seton Hall has been, it will be hard for them to stay afloat in the Big East. At this point, I'm guessing that either Seton Hall, Rutgers or Louisville will make the tournament. That would give the Big East nine teams.

Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

Poor Notre DameNotre Dame is a solid team. You wouldn't know it from its record but the Irish can play with anyone. The problem is that they can't beat anyone. Notre Dame is 10-8 on the season. Seven of those losses have come to teams in the RPI top 32. Here is how some of those games turned out:

The question now is, since Notre Dame didn't manage to beat anyone, will any of these teams be able to claim Notre Dame as a "quality win" in the eyes of the selection committee? Notre Dame's RPI is a paltry 99. Unfortunately for these teams, Notre Dame's season was so unlucky that even the teams that beat them will get nothing for their efforts.