Big 12 football analysis

My preseason All-B12 ballot

Since I’m heading to Big 12 Media Days in a couple of weeks I got to vote in the largely meaningless, preseason All-B12 ballot. They like to hold a vote on the order of finish, there’s a semi-bizarre distribution of positions to vote on, and then OPOY, DPOY, and Newcomer of the year. I almost botched the last one but when comparing notes with Max Olson of the Athletic I was reminded that Jalen Hurts is a newcomer. Prior to that I was voting for Texas’ freshman RB Jordan Whittington, which would have looked like the most idiotic and homerific possible selection.

Here’s how I voted on order of finish:

1. Texas: Sam Ehlinger and 3.5 really good, returning starters on OL combined with a pair of senior wideouts and a young but intensively coached and exceptionally athletic defenders. The Texas formula is really simple.

That Texas might be excellent on offense next year should be relatively obvious, but on defense where they replace eight senior starters there’s more hesitation nationally. But consider the key pieces up the middle:

DL: Senior Malcolm Roach, who was playing LB up until the end of last year when he became a spot player at DE and a third down nose tackle. He’s a high motor, bouncy athlete who’s about 6-2/290 now and really hard to keep blocked. On paper it looks like Texas is starting over at DL but Roach is probably an upgrade over any departing player but Charles Omenihu.

LB: Senior Jeffrey McCulloch, who split time the last few years between playing 3-4 OLB and ILB when injuries forced him there. He’s a smart, former 4-star athlete who’s just never found a positional home. This offseason he’s zeroed in at ILB and cut some weight to about 6-3, 235 or so.

S: Senior Brandon Jones and sophomore Caden Sterns, the former of whom is a third-year starter and was a couple of ankle injuries in 2018 away from leaving early for a day two or even day one draft selection. Jones is best in support but he’s absolute lightning who can turn initially looking gains from the run or quick game into 3-5 yard concessions. I think most are familiar with Sterns and I got the sense that he may win the vote for DPOY.

So as you can see, Texas actually has a fair amount of veteran leadership and quality up the middle of the defense for all the youthful athletes stepping into other roles to orbit around.

2. Oklahoma: I’m really suspicious of OU for 2019 for the same reasons I thought an overall big slip might occur in 2018. There’s a dozen places for marginal decline to occur on offense and little reason to believe the D will be much better while trying to master a totally new style of defense that requires great chemistry, knowhow, and physicality. How quickly are the skinny, fast DBs that Mike Stoops was stockpiling going to take to becoming zone dogs and intimidators in the middle of the field?

Last year I missed wildly on OU because replacing two starting OL around three super-experienced veterans proved to be child’s play for Bill Bedenbaugh and Kyler Murray ended up being one of the most physically gifted QBs to play the college game. This year Bedenbaugh has to replace four starting OL around a single pretty-experienced veteran and they plug in super-gifted Jalen Hurts at QB. I see a lot of marginal declines on offense and a bad defense but still a dangerous team that will out-athlete and out-offense a lot of opponents.

3. Iowa State: Pump fake Purdy, great infrastructure at TE and OL that can give them matchup advantages, and then their excellent defense that returns nearly the whole cast. There are a lot more answers than questions in Ames, IA.

4. Oklahoma State: If I were ranking the Big 12 offenses for 2019 in terms of both quality and an ability to be consistently great regardless of opponent, I think I’d go Texas, OSU, and then OU. The Cowboys look solid at OL and you figure they’ll at least get competent distribution from QB, and then they have some of the best weapons in the league in Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace with all kinds of interesting role players around them like Jelani Woods and Dillon Stoner. It’s all about whether Jim Knowles can build a good defense from a solid secondary. That’s a big question but there are bigger ones below.

5. TCU: Who’s the QB? You have to rebuild at DE with young or incoming guys that are promising but relative unknowns? Okay, I’ll assume that will probably go okay. Integrating a new approach to the passing game with a rebuilt OL and some young WRs? That’s interesting and promising enough? Legal problems at RB? Meh. Alex Delton at QB? No. That’s a bridge too far. This team needs Michael Collins or Matthew Baldwin to be healthy, eligible, and practiced. Otherwise I see Delton squandering the season while they desperately try to get Max Duggan up to speed.

6. Texas Tech: When you consider that Matt Wells inherits a starting QB, five starting OL, a sticky-fingered freshman DB, legitimately solid LBs and DL, and then skill players chosen by Kliff Kingsbury…maybe this team should be higher.

8. Kansas State: The defense may actually be pretty solid, more on that in the coming days, the offense is trying to do something difficult without all the pieces fully put together. I like their chances better than the teams below obviously, but I don’t know if their offense has an identity or things they can hang their hats on to generate wins in tough games.

9. West Virginia: It looks bad in Morgantown. Defense is starting over with a totally new scheme much like Oklahoma is doing and perhaps with even less talent or experience. Offense looks solid but they’re starting over as well and without Dana Holgorsen’s keen eye for choosing talents and isolating them in space. I think the offense could be solid, but a solid offense in the Big 12 is only enough to keep you in some games. Kansas has Pooka Williams and may struggle to win a single game.

10. Kansas: Yeah.

Preseason offense

QB: Sam Ehlinger, Texas

RB: Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State

RB: Pooka Williams, Kansas

FB: Jeremiah Hall, Oklahoma

WR: CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma

WR: Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State

WR: Jalen Reagor, TCU

TE: Grant Calcaterra, Oklahoma

OL: Sam Cosmi, Texas

OL: Jack Anderson, Texas Tech

OL: Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

OL: Josh Knipfel, Iowa State

OL: Lucas Niang, TCU

PK: Cameron Dicker, Texas

KR/PR: Kene Nwangwu, Iowa State

QB was easy, although it would have been funny to put Ehlinger at FB so I could sneak another good QB in here, probably pump fake Purdy. I’m not hearing about Jalen Hurts as “a faster Ehlinger” or whatever OU fans are selling when the dude has averaged 3.7 ypa in playoff games.

I was frustrated to have to choose a TE and a FB but considering that the obvious choice at TE is Grant Calcaterra, it really works out alright anyways. FB should maybe have gone to an Iowa State guy but I’m not sure which of them is going to get the most action, we can rectify that after the season unless Jeremiah Hall has an amazing season (possible).

Both Oklahoma and Texas have a bunch of really good RBs that could end up being better and/or more productive than Hubbard or Pooka but there’s an even better chance that they (and their QBs) will cannibalize some of the carries and stats. Hubbard and Pooka are going to get a lot of work and be the features of their respective offenses if health permits it.

I went ahead and chose guards for first team, although Knipfel might play tackle, and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop me.

Preseason defense

DL: Jaquan Bailey, Iowa State

DL: Malcolm Roach, Texas

DL: Ray Lima, Iowa State

DL: Corey Bethley, TCU

DL: Wyatt Hubert, Kansas State

LB: Jeffrey McCulloch, Texas

LB: Garrett Wallow, TCU

LB: Marcel Spears, Iowa State

DB: Jeff Gladney, TCU

DB: Greg Eisworth, Iowa State

DB: Brandon Jones, Texas

DB: Innis Gaines, TCU

DB: A.J. Green, Oklahoma State

P: Corey Dunn, Iowa State

At the last minute I switched from Ochaun Mathis, a DE that Gary Patterson has been hyping, to Wyatt Hubert. I know TCU’s scheme makes for great numbers and stats for their DEs but so do the systems favored by Chris Klieman and Scottie Hazelton and we’ve seen more from Hubert.

Ross Blacklock will be a common pick on here and maybe for DPOY, but he’s a nose tackle coming off an achilles injury that kept him out for spring. Just a lot of potential for him to lack the ideal weight/conditioning or be missing some burst. Anyways I hedged here with a later selection we’ll come back to. Ray Lima and Malcolm Roach are likely to be two of the best and most important defenders in the league, even if neither put up big stats. Corey Bethley will be impactful AND put up some stats.

At LB things ended up being pretty straightforward once I considered that McCulloch was likely to get a lot of work in Todd Orlando’s blitz packages. It would be totally predictable for him to translate being a featured ILB in that defense into big numbers. Last year’s Texas Mac, Anthony Wheeler, had 87 tackles, 8.5 TFL, and four sacks despite being a liability in a few games due to his lack of range. McCulloch is a better player, or will be after an offseason focusing on one position and having a big senior year. Garrett Wallow is probably the best B12 LB in the league, that felt like an easy bet, Marcel Spears has been good for two years now, both are good at the things that are hard at that position in this league.

A.J. Green is a pretty good corner with some skins on the wall, it’s possible that one of Texas’ former bluechip sophomores (Jalen Green, Anthony Cook) will surpass him but he gets the nod for now. Jeff Gladney is legitimately very good. Eisworth was a DPOY I considered, as the middle safety in their scheme he gets to insert himself into action all over the field and he was good at that a year ago. Brandon Jones is still a better player than Caden Sterns in my estimation, Innis Gaines could have a huge year now that he’s healthy and a year more savvy.

Offensive player of the year: Sam Ehlinger

I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t win this on the ballot. Dude scored 41 touchdowns last year and had nearly 4k total yards playing with a hurt shoulder that kept him out of major parts of two games as a true sophomore.

Defensive player of the year: Garrett Wallow

This is partly a recognition of a player I think is one of the most talented and versatile defenders in the league, partly a bet that TCU will be good on defense again, and partly a hedge on Ross Blacklock coming back in a major way. If the NT is causing people problems than the ultra-quick LB behind him stands to benefit.

Newcomer of the year: Jalen Hurts

No brainer. He could go for 2.5k passing yards and 800 rushing yards and no one would blink. Many of the league’s defenses will be overpowered by him in the Sooner offense.

43 Comments

My only argument is on one of your points about Jalen Hurts. While I don’t think he will live up to the ridiculous standards set by Baker and Kyler, I think if you are judging by 3.7 ypa in playoff games your expectations are too low. Playoff games feature teams that are playoff worthy, which is not the same as the Big 12 slate of defenses.

That’s a fine point, but what does 3.7 ypa against Washington, Georgia, or Clemson come to when facing TCU, Iowa State, or Texas? Maybe better than that, but it’s such an abysmal number that you have to wonder if he’ll be able to carry them.

And with their problems on D, they probably need the QB to carry them.

He did pretty well against Georgia in relief in the title game, with 7/9 passing for 82 yards and an average of 7.786 YPP running/passing. That’s not Kyler Murray/Tua Tagovailoa numbers, but Georgia had bottled up Tua pretty well before then.

This article wasn’t too full of texas homer-ism, I’ll give it a solid B+ or A-, plus it’s a preseason assessment of the future production of teams/players. Even if it was all pro-OU it could potentially be bogus by the time the season is over!

It isn’t really homerism when you see the obvious flaws with Oklahoma.
Hurts behind last year’s OL or 2017’s you could see Hurts coming close to putting up those numbers.
Hurts is going to have the pressure to score a lot more often than he ever had with Alabama even if OU’s D dramatically improves.

All the weapons around a QB are important if the QB can get them the ball. What will probably happen is that Hurts misses the big time throws and the offense is less explosive.
Truthfully think that helps Oklahoma on D because they don’t have the depth to score as fast as they do on offense.
Best thing for OU is to become a lot more efficient on offense with time consuming drives and play average to above average Defense.

Just think in a game like that Sam Ehlinger is better because he is familiar with the offense.
Both Mayfield and Murray had time to learn the offense at Oklahoma. Hurts will have spring and fall practices.

“Hurts is going to have the pressure to score a lot more often than he ever had with Alabama even if OU’s D dramatically improves.”
Underrated point. Dude was well programmed by Saban to never turn the ball over, they’d take sacks, throwaways, or no-gain scrambles all day because they weren’t afraid to punt and play D. Not the case in Oklahoma.

“Just think in a game like that Sam Ehlinger is better because he is familiar with the offense.
Both Mayfield and Murray had time to learn the offense at Oklahoma. Hurts will have spring and fall practices.”
Also a good point. And Murray and Mayfield ran some solid spread Os in HS with a ton of experience in them, Hurts didn’t throw the ball around as much, although he has now had a lot of experience in big time college games.

When it comes down to precise decision-making in big moments, for sure you give Mayfield and Ehlinger the edge over Hurts. Maybe Murray as well but Murray was also just impossible in big moments because he could buy himself enough time to make something happen and had the arm to hit targets way downfield if they could get open. I’ve never seen someone so small be so physically overpowering before.

Re: TCU QB – Even if Baldwin gets the waiver he won’t take a practice rep until Sept due to surgery he had last month. So he’s likely 2020 option at best. Collins should be ready but it’s going to be the Delton show to start :/

Rogers was QB1 at the ‘Spring Scrimmage’ last Spring for whatever it’s worth. It was his second spring in Fort Worth under Cumbie, albeit his first in pads. I have no idea what you mean by “…learn a new system”.

I can’t see Baylor finishing 7th but I also wouldn’t be shocked at all if TCU, OkSt, and ISU all have stellar years, so I can see how it could shake out that way. The only issue I have is putting Tech over Baylor. Rhule/Snow system getting another year to click in, plus a top 3-4 QB in the conference getting his 3rd yr of consistent play. I know you really don’t like Baylor’s D, but I’m gonna give a pretty big edge to Rhule having something figured out on how to defend the B12, than Wells coming in on his 1st year with players he didn’t recruit. Plus the game is in Waco. Baylor likely Ws vs Kansas, WVU, KSt, & Tech is prolly gonna put BU at worst, 6th.

I wouldn’t have thought this before the last couple of years but I trust Wells and his defensive staff over Rhule/Snow though. The Baylor guys dismantled the structure of something that was working to rebuild and they haven’t yet managed to piece the new program together.

Wells has a structure that’s more proven against the spread and he can arrive there with less violence to what Tech had already been aiming at. If you look at what Gibbs left behind there’s actually some defensive talent on hand that fits the vision.

Finally, tech was better last year. Injuries at QB knocked them a peg below Baylor in the outcome but they were the stronger squad overall.

Tech probably beats Baylor (and KSU) if they have ANY healthy scholarship QB. Probably beat OU with a healthy Bowman for the whole game and maybe beat UT as well (almost beat them with a third stringer and would have pretty handily if not for three of the all time dumbest red zone turnovers). Tech was a top 25 team last year when healthy. Assuming health on offense and ANY improvement on defense, we likely are again this year.

Of course, a big drop off on defense without Dakota Allen and with big holes at NT and safety could mean we only win 4 games. And maybe Kingsbury actually was an offensive genius and the new guy, Yost, won’t be able to maintain the same level of offensive prowess.

Ian, do you have any insight (or even care because I assume Tech is far from your top concern) on what Tech is planning on doing at NT? Joseph Wallace was obviously the presumptive starter but he’s off the team. I like the idea of Broderick Washington there but have some questions about whether he’s athletic enough to make up for his lack of size for that position. If we can’t find someone to hold the fort down at NT, it might not matter how good our linebackers are, unfortunately.

I’m sure he got some snaps there, but he was primarily playing one of the 4i DE spots. The NT spot was a rotation of Joe Wallace (who led the returning group of Big 12 DL in run stops per PFF), Preston Gordon, a grad transfer from Rice, and Nick McCann. Only McCann will be here next year, unfortunately.

I have to say, I’m surprised at how down you are on WVU. Sure, they lost two of their 4 best returning players a couple months ago. But Holgo left a lot of talent behind at receiver and safety. The defense returns plenty of experience, even with the recent losses and Holgo had two of his best recruiting classes right before he left. I think the talent on campus easily outpaces K-state and is probably better than some other teams you’ve got in the bottom half of the conference.

Brown also looks like a better fit at WVU than any of the other new coaches. You don’t seem to like him but he’s the only new young guy with a few notable P5 scalps on his belt and he’s taking on a program that has consistently placed in the top half of the conference, unlike the other two.

I’ll be happy with WVU if they get to a bowl. Probably won’t happen with the schedule. But I don’t see a team that is merely better than Kansas in the grand scheme of the conference. Looks a lot more like the other squads in the bottom half of the conference. I guess we will know how the transition has gone pretty quickly once the season starts with JMU, Mizzou and N.C. State to start.

I like brown fine I just think he’s up against it. The top WRs and Ss waiting for their turns are leaving and they’re overhauling a thing or two on both sides of the ball.

It’s really hard to stand out in this league with coaching because so many of the coaches are excellent. Everyone has comparable talent after Texas and Oklahoma and things often hinge on who runs the most complete program or who is in a boom cycle at QB. Brown may build a complete program but that takes time and they aren’t in an up cycle with their roster. That was last year.

Hard to disagree with so many unknowns and the overall improvement of the 2nd/3rd tier teams. And that schedule..

That said-
I’m nervous for JMU, then Missouri/NC St. It’s a tough way to open..
The Texas game, is in Motown for homecoming- With Texas/OU the following week. It’s hard to win in Morgantown.
An upset there could be the bright spot in a rebuilding year.

I also think that Les Miles could steal 1-2 big 12 games.
And after seeing ISU completely dismantle WVU last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished at the top.

WVU is just up against it with the shape of the roster and the way the schedule shakes out. Miles’ big problem will be figuring out how to create space for Pooka Williams when everyone knows that job one is to keep him under wraps.