Weekend Review

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60

Monday, 9/17: -$2.10

Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60

Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50

Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

481 Comments

(and you all laughed at me on Friday when I said $32.50 was in the cards!) (just bustin' on ya)

Prepare to be laughed at on TFMetals if you give factual advice when everybody is high off silver's gains. Noone wants to hear it. This site is a classical example of lambs celebrating being brought to slaughter.

Funny though that I have the same feeling.. 32,5$ would be a good price to increase your position. I don't use technicals, they never ever work, but from a gut feeling point of view 32,5$ seems right. A 30 handle is probably not out of the cards, but probably unlikely to happen in the situation we're in right now. Either way, if we get to it, I'd throw everything I have at it. Am currently 50% committed, so I have 50% dry powder. Already sold half two Fridays ago when we shot up from 32 something straight to 33,5.

Seems everyone has a missing gold problem and it's been that way for quite sometime. The hidden economy of Gold. Make a good book.

Aug 23, 2012 07:55

Central bank rebuts reports of missing gold reserves, CBN says

Media reports that 80 metric tons of China’s gold reserves have gone missing are untrue, CBN newswire reported Wednesday, quoting an unidentified official at the People’s Bank ...: BEIJING -- The central bank said Wednesday that reports of authorities investigating the loss of 80 tonnes of gold reserves from the national treasury are untrue and "pure rumor." The remarks came in response to a report carried by a Hong Kong-based magazine stating that the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, the Ministry of Supervision and the National Audit Office had jointly set up special groups to investigate the whereabouts of 80 tonnes of gold reserves that had gone missing from the national treasury. "The report was made out of thin air. The central bank denounces such practices," said an anonymous... more »

The forerunner of today’s European Central Bank, the European Monetary Institute (emi), once carried almost $27 billion in gold reserves. In 1998, the emi was replaced by the European Central Bank (ecb). No European Monetary Union financial data was published that year, while Europe’s elites “rebalanced” the financial system. When financial records resumed publication in 1999, $20 billion in gold had “gone missing” from EU coffers.

Hmm. What am I missing? Why are the metals softening dramatically this evening? I mean we have QEfinity and the oh-so-knowledegable Gold and Silver market players plow it down. Is this;

1) Pre-running, in anticipation of a big up week, or

2) Just that all the algo's think things are overbought based on chart lines and silly programming rules (because they are mindless and oblivious to world economic and geopolitical events)?

Logic dictates that we move higher - much higher - regardless of all the lines and trends that can be drafted onto charts, regardless of all the overbought naysayers, regardless of all the MSM crap that says otherwise.

YOU SEE - all of the excuses for a downdraft are predicated on the premise that we have a normal market - WE DO NOT.

Should be an interesting few days ahead. Lets hope WW3 does not break out and the Global economic issues are resolved. In the meantime sell PM's [/sarc]

How are you able to trade at this time on a Sunday? Are you in Asia somewhere?

You can trade futures and CFDs and probably a couple of other things via the electronic access market (GLOBEX) 23 hours a day, 5 days a week - so basically any time the market is open.

There seem to be very few people here who understand how these markets work. The quoted spot price IS the COMEX/GLOBEX price, during ALL market hours. Doesn't matter if Asia is open, London is open, Sydney is open.. the quoted price is the price on the US futures exchange. How else do you think they can control the price so completely? It's a paper scheme, and sorry to disappoint, but the whole world's in on it. The Asians aren't here to play Robin Hood and save us poor small investors; they are in on it, and they use the paper price suppression to aquire as much physical on the cheap as long as they can.

Actually , its hard to imagine how lucky I am . Got rid of my long position right before the smackdown and I was pretty leveraged . I could feel their presence in the market . I can feel now they are trying to UP the price from the 33.8 lvl for some I guess malevolent reason .

Horst, you you are mixing philosophy and trading here. Many of us don't trade paper, so what you so smugly perceive as not wanting to hear it, is actually not caring about short terms moves. So $32.50 is your major smackdown buypoint? Oh my god, we're all going to be taken to the cleaners because we didn't scalp 5%.

It is you who doesn't seem to understand that gold and silver isn't just about performance but removing your consent from the system. Be clever all you want in the markets. Some of us choose not to play the game. Don't think you can school us on why we should play your way.

So they want grandparents to use their pension funds to fund deposits for their grandchildren's houses, thus propping up UK housing market a while longer. Then the market finally caves in, wiping out those deposits.

This might actually suit some people, with large pension funds, as a way to pass some of that money on to their families, but I am sure a lot of people will be caught out.

What it's been two weeks since Ben signed the check? Wait until the liquid love gets spread around. Note that there were alot of nasty down trends in QE 1 and QE2. Blow up the graph. I still smell alot of fear among regular investors and institutional investors. The crack hasn't gotten to the brain yet. The crowd reacts. The wise are proactive. You guys are going to get ulcers if every sunday night you worry about these smash downs when in the big picture (see above) it's already been a stone gas (Don Cornelius) and more a coming!!!

The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index dropped 0.8 percent to 122.45 at 10:37 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost four stocks falling for each that rose. The gauge climbed 5.4 percent this quarter through last week as central banks from Europe, the U.S., Japan and China took action to stimulate economic growth.

“A period of consolidation in the month ahead looks the more likely outcome,” said George Boubouras, Melbourne-based head of investment strategy at UBS AG’s Australian wealth management unit. The Swiss bank has about $1.5 trillion in assets under management. “In Europe, there will continue to be some lingering challenges. As we approach the end of the quarter, investors will fine-tune and adjust their portfolios across all the asset classes. This will include some profit taking and portfolio rotation.”

Tuesday is options expiry, they always slam PM beforehand. Monday will probably be a good day to buy. After expiry it will shoot right back up.

The thing that is making me go hmmmm, is the tungsten bars found in NY. Sounds like psy ops to shake some confidence in gold as the only true money. The EE is running very scared. I wonder if this options expiry will have a particularly strong dip as they slammed G&S pretty heavy at HK open. Verrrry interesting. Or are they giving China a gift for some reason? To back off Japan? The riots at Foxcomm are an interesting angle too. Are they trying to prevent China from taking a bite of the Apple? Apple would be very screwed if the iphone mfg is stolen, or, stopped for any length of period. Are we being blackmailed by China?

Is that the market makers, fund and portfolio managers adjust their positions at this time of the year, end of quarter, as to lock in profits. But then again this is thinly traded market, we will see in the morning.

It is you who doesn't seem to understand that gold and silver isn't just about performance but removing your consent from the system. Be clever all you want in the markets. Some of us choose not to play the game. Don't think you can school us on why we should play your way.

What worries me is why The New York Post..(and all these other rags) is running the story............in other words who ordered this story to get out there....and why. If the higher-ups didn't want this tungsten story publicized, it wouldn't be publicized....period. It sounds like TPTB are "softening up the target"......and i don't know exactlty what that means to goldbugs.......but i know it's happening, of that you can be sure.

A miniature replica of the May 2nd, 2011 drive by shooting was just completed, as silver was knocked down the proverbial mine-shaft moments ago, dropping nearly a dollar in nano-seconds on Monday’s Asian open.

Volume data indicates that 3,297 contracts, or 16.5 million paper ounces of silver were dumped on the market in a mere 5 minutes between 9:00 and 9:05pm EST.
In other words, approximately 1/2 of the entire US annual silver production was dumped on the market by the cartel in a 5 minute period on a Sunday night.

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