I'm going to assume the article consists of "Republicans will make gains in the House and Senate, then proceed to make asses of themselves for the next two years, subsequently leading to major losses during a presidential election rout."

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque:I'm going to assume the article consists of "Republicans will make gains in the House and Senate, then proceed to make asses of themselves for the next two years, subsequently leading to major losses during a presidential election rout."

Triple Oak:Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

Well, gee, you mean Republicans saying things to the effect of "women should stay barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen making me a sammich or else," "if you're poor you don't deserve healthcare or anything else" and "it's all single mothers' fault" doesn't resonate with mainstream America? Huh. I can't imagine why THAT could be.

"Another negative consequence of packing the districts with a conservative voter base is that many Republicans are now more worried about losing a primary to a Tea Party candidate than they are about losing the general election to a Democrat, which pushes the party further rightward."-FTA

Flargan:"Another negative consequence of packing the districts with a conservative voter base is that many Republicans are now more worried about losing a primary to a Tea Party candidate than they are about losing the general election to a Democrat, which pushes the party further rightward."-FTA

^This was an excellent point.

I agree. Excellent point. So what do Democrats do to win the Congress seats?

somedude210:allylloyd: I agree. Excellent point. So what do Democrats do to win the Congress seats?

put up strong candidates?

They also do a decent job of not saying things like "there's illegitimate rape and legitimate rape," "you should trade chickens for health care," "God likes women getting raped," and "47% of Americans never take responsibility for their lives."

Dr Dreidel:Triple Oak: Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014. The GOP's current strategy wins about 50% of the time, which is more than sufficient for their current philosophy of government. I doubt they see this as much of a "problem" at all, much less one that they need to solve.

qorkfiend:I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014. The GOP's current strategy wins about 50% of the time, which is more than sufficient for their current philosophy of government. I doubt they see this as much of a "problem" at all, much less one that they need to solve.

Two major differences between 2010 and 2020 - pres election in 2020 and an even browner electorate. Meaning that Dems will be able to undo a bunch of the gerrymandering emplaced after the 2010 election (which essentially locked the GOP into House control for the entire decade). We just have to survive another six years.

qorkfiend:Dr Dreidel: Triple Oak: Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014. The GOP's current strategy wins about 50% of the time, which is more than sufficient for their current philosophy of government. I doubt they see this as much of a "problem" at all, much less one that they need to solve.

If the electorate is more Democratic in 2020, that would suggest Democratic gains in the state legislatures. Those would help to reverse some of the gerrymandering that has benefited the GOP in the last two elections.

qorkfiend:I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014.

Depending on how quickly new district lines are applied, 2022 might be the bloodbath we were hoping 2012 was. The 2020 election could be hugely important at setting the House up for a more direct relationship between number of votes for R/D candidates, and number of seats held by R/D candidates.

DarnoKonrad:I see your charts, graphs, logic, citations, and experience and raise you "Democrats staying home like they always do on off year elections."

I don't think the author of TFA denied that 2014 isn't going to be a good year for the Democrats. The point was that any GOP victories in 2014 will be Pyrrhic in nature, since they will probably only serve to further erode the party's national reputation heading into 2016.

Serious Black:qorkfiend: Dr Dreidel: Triple Oak: Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014. The GOP's current strategy wins about 50% of the time, which is more than sufficient for their current philosophy of government. I doubt they see this as much of a "problem" at all, much less one that they need to solve.

If the electorate is more Democratic in 2020, that would suggest Democratic gains in the state legislatures. Those would help to reverse some of the gerrymandering that has benefited the GOP in the last two elections.

This.

We'll probably have more Democrats as governors in 2020, but it will be hard for Democrats to win state legislatures which will be drawing the lines in time for 2022.

Interesting article. It lays out very well how the GOPs quest to control the house has sabotaged their efforts to win national contests (including presidential elections as well as explaining their terrible national approval rating). It also explains why this trend is likely to continue through 2016.

Serious Black:qorkfiend: Dr Dreidel: Triple Oak: Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

I'm not convinced that the GOP is in trouble beyond 2016. Yes, we'll probably see a typical heavily Democratic electorate in 2016 and 2020, but we'll probably have the same problems during the 2018 and 2022 midterms that we saw in 2010 and will see in 2014. The GOP's current strategy wins about 50% of the time, which is more than sufficient for their current philosophy of government. I doubt they see this as much of a "problem" at all, much less one that they need to solve.

If the electorate is more Democratic in 2020, that would suggest Democratic gains in the state legislatures. Those would help to reverse some of the gerrymandering that has benefited the GOP in the last two elections.

Honestly, it looks like they can Either win the Presidency or the House. In all honestly I think they have far greater power in the House than they would in the Presidency. Being the President means having to make real decisions and get things done. I don't think the Republican party "really" has interest in the Presidency, as it opens them up for criticism and doesn't gain them any real power.

Dr Dreidel:Triple Oak: Sub-headline: "Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think"

I'm pretty sure we all knew they were in trouble, are they somehow in more trouble?

Anyone who says that the GOP can "solve" its problem by winning more Senate seats in 2014 is in denial. 2014 might even look like a good election, but the looming problems for 2016 and beyond spell T-R-U-B-E-L for the GOP.

Doing well in 2014 will exacerbate the GOP's issues. Doing well will give republicans a false data point that the moron wing will point to and say, "see shutting down the government didn't hurt us."

DarnoKonrad:I see your charts, graphs, logic, citations, and experience and raise you "Democrats staying home like they always do on off year elections."

Federally, the Democratic concern for 2014 is simply to not lose the Senate. There is no way they are taking the House.

2016 will be the important year when they can push back on all sides

Outside of critical Senate seats, state campaigns are probably where the Democrats should be focussing on for 2014, but I don't know what the prospects are like, especially where they can build their ground game for 2016.

A Cave Geek:This election will tell us more about the memory capacity of the American electorate than anything about the GOP. Does the American electorate have a memory, or not?

It's less this and more team politics. Midterms are the game of turnout, and the (R) always has the advantage here due to lack of interest from the left.

People who vote R will continue to vote R because they have been convinced that they are stalwart defenders of the American Way, and the ends justify the means. They often don't like their beliefs to be challenged, and the very existence of the D party, with its consistent outreach, inclusion, and pressure to change established societal norms to be even more inclusive, cause the R to recoil even further and reflexively vote R rather than see the world they are used to and comfortable with, change and change and change.

It's a country-wide "damn the torpedoes" situation every midterm. It's not about the memory of the electorate, it's about the turnout. To test the collective memory of the nation you need to look to Presidential-year elections as those are more indicative of where we as a nation are actually heading.

MindStalker:Honestly, it looks like they can Either win the Presidency or the House. In all honestly I think they have far greater power in the House than they would in the Presidency. Being the President means having to make real decisions and get things done. I don't think the Republican party "really" has interest in the Presidency, as it opens them up for criticism and doesn't gain them any real power.

The GOP is at heart an insurgency party, they just want to block any and all progress. With neoliberalism in vogue the past two decades, Republicans have gotten Dems to do all their dirty work. Now all that conservatives have to do is obstruct, obstruct, obstruct, and their monied masters will keep siphoning up every last bit of wealth until modern capitalism collapses.

Ironically, Republicans' short-term tactics to pick up additional seats in the 2014 midterms-as well as the rightward pressures of the presidential primary process-will only reinforce the public's perception of the Republican Party as unwelcoming and out of step with the majority of Americans.

A Cave Geek:Serious Black: A Cave Geek: This election will tell us more about the memory capacity of the American electorate than anything about the GOP. Does the American electorate have a memory, or not?

Back in July 2009, Gallup reported that a third of Americans blamed Obama either a great deal or a moderate amount for the performance of the economy. The answer to your question, sadly, is no.

1/3....That means 2/3 did not....2/3 is more than enough to win elections.

It would be if those two-thirds all voted. They don't. That remaining third will though, and I can guarantee they'll all vote for the Republican candidate.