Category Archives: Drought and Heat Waves

As many parts of the United States enter another day of high heat and humidity, we’re reading about the first ever heatwave warning guidelines issued by the United Nations earlier this month.

The guidelines are intended to alert the general public, health services and government agencies via the development of so-called heatwave early warning systems that should ultimately lead to actions that reduce the effects of hot weather extremes on health.

In their joint guidance, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) note that heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the length, frequency and intensity of heatwaves will likely increase over most land areas during this century.

Recent world heatwave events come to mind:

Both India and Pakistan were hit by deadly heatwaves in the first half of 2015, leading to 3,600 fatalities, according to Munich Re. Temperatures were exceptional, climbing as high as 47 °C and accompanied by high humidity which compounded the effect.

European heatwaves in the summer of 2003 led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people, as did the Russian heatwaves, forest fires and associated air pollution in 2010. In fact, the Russian heatwave of 2010 still ranks among the top 10 deadliest world catastrophes 1970-2014.

The UN guidance makes the case that one way to manage the risk of heat-related health effects is through the development of a Heat Health Warning System (HHWS) as part of a broader Heat Health Action Plan (HHAP).

Of primary concern in an HHWS, it notes, is how to assess the level of heat stress associated with the meteorological or climate forecast, translate this into an estimate of a likely health outcome and identify a critical heat-stress threshold for a graded plan of action.

Typically, HHWSs are composed of a number of elements, including:

Weather forecasts of high temperatures that may also include humidity;

A method for assessing how future weather patterns may evolve in terms of a range of health outcomes;

The determination of heat-stress thresholds for action;

A system of graded alerts/actions for communication to the general population or specific target groups about an impending period of heat and its intensity and to government agencies about the possible severity of health impacts.

A number of cities and countries around the world have developed these early warning systems, including Canada, England, France, Germany, Italy, the United States and Australia.

The first HHWS was actually implemented in the city of Philadelphia in the United States in 1995. In this system, local city staff work with the National Weather Service (NWS) to determine when a heatwave is imminent.

After an alert is issued, the Philadelphia Health Department contacts news organizations with tips on how vulnerable individuals can protect themselves. People without air conditioning are advised to seek relief from the heat in shopping malls, senior centers and other cool spaces.

Friends, relatives, neighbors and other volunteers are also encouraged to make daily visits to elderly people during the hot weather, ensuring the most susceptible individuals have sufficient fluids, proper ventilation and other amenities to cope with the weather.

After the success of Philadelphia, similar tailor-made systems are being implemented for the 50-60 cities in the U.S. with a population of more than 500,000 and a local meteorological office, the guidance notes.

The NWS reports that heat is typically the leading cause of weather-related fatalities each year.

This is one of the highest death tolls on record for heat-related casualties, Aon notes.

The states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha (Orissa) were worst affected by temperatures that reached 48.0ËšC (118ËšF) in several areas. Temperatures were so hot that roads literally melted in some areas.

Closer to home the ongoing severe drought conditions across much of the Western United States, with a particular emphasis on California, continue to exact an economic toll.

Aon cites a study conducted by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences on behalf of the California state government that concluded that total 2015 statewide economic losses from the drought will top $2.7 billion.

Including damage from neighboring states, the overall total loss will rise to at least $3 billion.

Heat waves and drought can cause losses in many lines of insurance, according to Munich Re. Many losses are unseen, and the result of secondary events, making it difficult to assess the extent of losses involved.

For example, losses to the agriculture industry can run into the billions of dollars in drought years as harvest failures lead to multi-peril crop insurance claims and livestock losses may result from shortage of feed and heat-related stress. Long dry periods also create ideal conditions for promoting the outbreak and spread of wildfires.

In 2011 Texas suffered a severe drought and overall and insured wildfire losses in that state were also the highest ever recorded, Munich Re explains.

Heat waves have also been linked to an increased risk of mortality and heat-related stress with the potential to impact health and life insurance.

I.I.I. provides facts and statistics on droughts and heat waves here and a useful backgrounder on crop insurance here.

Here’s what the significant wildfire potential looks like by June and July:

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) recently issued Spring Outlook calls for drought conditions to persist in California, Nevada and Oregon through June with the onset of the dry season in April.

Drought continues to make the headlines, with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor showing moderate to exceptional drought covers 30.6 percent of the contiguous United States.

Its weekly update also shows that 82 percent of the state of California is in a state of extreme or exceptional drought. Reservoir levels in the state continued to decline, and groundwater wells continued to go dry, the U.S. Drought Monitor says.

The LA Times reports that California’s historic drought has 14 communities on the brink of waterlessness. It quotes Tim Quinn, executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies, saying that communities that have made the list are often small and isolated and have relied on a single source of water without backup sources.

However, Quinn also tells the LA Times that if the drought continues, larger communities could face their own significant problems.

A recent article at CFO.com by Lauren Kelley Koopman, a director in PwC’s Sustainable Business Solutions practice, makes the point that when water-related disruptions affect operations, companies can suffer significant profit and losses and pay higher prices for goods in the supply chain.

An article in The New York Times over the weekend gave a frightening account of the ongoing severe drought across California that is now threatening the stateÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s water supply.

As farmers, ranchers and homeowners brace for what could be the stateÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s worst drought in 500 years, The NYT reports that the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which supplies much of California with water during the dry season, was at just 12 percent of normal last week, reflecting the lack of rain or snow in December and January.

The NYT quotes Tim Quinn, executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies, saying:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, published last Thursday, put 9 percent of the state of California into Ã¢â‚¬Å“Exceptional DroughtÃ¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬“ the worst possible category of drought. According to Dr. Jeff MastersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ WunderBlog this is the first time since the Drought Monitor product began in 2000 that a portion of California was put into Ã¢â‚¬Å“Exceptional Drought.Ã¢â‚¬ 

Meanwhile, parts of the state experiencing Ã¢â‚¬Å“Extreme Drought,Ã¢â‚¬  the second worst category of drought, increased to 67 percent.

The U.S. Drought Monitor notes that a few of the impacts within the Ã¢â‚¬Å“Exceptional DroughtÃ¢â‚¬  areas include fallowing of land, wells running dry, municipalities considering drilling deeper wells, and little to no rangeland grasses for cattle to graze on, prompting significant livestock sell off.

Over at Slate.com Eric Holthaus says that puts the current California drought on par with recent major droughts in Texas (2010-11) and the Midwest (2012), both of which were multibillion-dollar disasters.

For insurers, droughts can be costly too. According to analysis by Munich Re, drought in various parts of the U.S. in 2012 caused $15 billion to $17 billion in insured losses, making it the second costliest disaster after Hurricane Sandy.

It cites U.S. Forest Service statistics that 65 million to 82 million of National Forest lands are at a Ã¢â‚¬Å“high or very high risk of fireÃ¢â‚¬  and are in need of restoration.

Between 1960 and 1970, there was only one year, 1969, when wildfires burned more than five million acres in the U.S. In the last decade, it happened eight out of 10 years, the WSJ adds.

As of July 1, some 11 wildfire, heat and drought events have resulted in an estimated $365 million in insured losses in 2013, according to Munich Re.

AonÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s June Global Catastrophe Recap notes that the Black Forest Fire near Colorado Springs became the most damaging fire in ColoradoÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s history and left two dead. The fire charred 14,280 acres of land and destroyed at least 511 homes. Insurers received at least 4,500 claims with payouts in excess of $350 million. Due to dozens of destroyed uninsured or underinsured homes, the overall economic loss will approach $500 million, Aon added.

On June 30, 19 firefighters were killed while working to contain the Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona. This is the deadliest event for firefighters since 9/11 and the third highest firefighter death toll attributed to wildfires.