Runners and riders

Ségolène Royal is the firm favourite to be the Socialists' presidential candidate

IN OPPOSITION, Britain's Conservative Party went through two election defeats and three failed leaders before plumping for one (David Cameron) who looks electable. Will the French Socialists be faster learners? This week they came a step closer to picking the only candidate (Ségolène Royal) who polls say can beat the front-runner on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Three Socialists are contesting the nomination for next spring's presidential election. Against Ms Royal are Laurent Fabius, a former prime minister who espouses a hard-left anti-liberal creed, and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a moderate ex-finance minister. They have six weeks to campaign before 212,000 party members vote on November 16th (if necessary, a second round will be held a week later).

Ms Royal is the overwhelming favourite. She has conquered public opinion: she tops the list of left-leaning politicians, according to TNS-Sofres, with a 59% popularity rating. She has won over Socialist voters: 49% would choose her, says Ifop, against 14% for Mr Strauss-Kahn and only 6% for Mr Fabius. Within the party, she is the favourite of the federation leaders who traditionally guide members' votes: she has the backing of 48 out of 83 who have expressed a preference, according to Le Monde. Many of the new party members who joined online are behind her too.

Ms Royal has already seen off three other would-be candidates. Last week Lionel Jospin, a former prime minister, quit the race. This week Jack Lang, a popular ex-culture minister, withdrew. And François Hollande, the party leader (and Ms Royal's partner), chose not to run, deferring to her greater popularity and his inability to rally support as a compromise choice.

Less than a year ago, Ms Royal's candidacy was dismissed by Socialist grandees as preposterous. She had no experience, they sneered, even though she has served as education, family and environment minister. She had no credibility, they scoffed, although she is the elected president of Poitou-Charentes, and the only female regional boss. When Alain Duhamel, a commentator, published a book in January entitled “The Pretenders 2007”, he included 15 aspirants—but not Ms Royal.

How has she pulled it off? Rather like Mr Cameron. The British Tory leader blurs political boundaries by hugging trees and denouncing health cuts; Ms Royal does the same by calling for young criminals to be taken in hand by the army. Like Mr Cameron, the snappily dressed Ms Royal dwells little on specifics and a lot on style. She has set up an interactive website, urging voters to help draw up ideas, as part of her campaign for a “participatory democracy”.

Above all, like Mr Cameron, the 53-year-old Ms Royal embodies (relative) youth, modernity and a new generation—and all without saying a word. As a vexed adviser to Mr Sarkozy puts it, “she is the message”: an outspoken, working mother of four, who has defied the macho culture of her party. In reality she has spent decades in politics; yet, next to rows of greying men in suits, she seems a breath of fresh air. “This makes her a particularly tricky opponent to attack,” he adds.

Mr Hollande promises to remain neutral. But he could not resist saying this week that “one candidacy has unquestionably established itself”. The contest may be bitter. This week, one of Ms Royal's brothers said that another, Gérard, a former spy, had planted the bomb that sank a Greenpeace ship in 1985. The timing was curious. But, like so many attempts to destabilise Ms Royal, it may end up boosting not discrediting her.