NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, January 4, 2010

The oil market still seems over-supplied, given ample inventories, an increase in OPEC and non-OPEC production, and high surplus capacity within OPEC. This supply, and a weak global economic recovery, could mute some of the pressure on the oil price. Fundamentals do not always drive prices–one might expect an oil price closer to $50-55 per barrel today–but they can be restraints.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to remain on hold–likely into 2011 in RGE’s view–global liquidity conditions should be supportive of oil and other commodities. Any pressures on the U.S. dollar could strengthen oil. The fundamental outlook, however, could restrain this upward pressure.

Muted Demand to ContinueThe sharp fall in demand for oil in 2009 following a shallower decline in 2008 marked the first back-to-back oil and oil product demand declines in two decades. At the end of 2009, oil and product demand began to recover, but they remain well below 2006 and 2007 levels. The strong pace of growth in emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, suggests EM fuel demand will be strong, only partly offsetting weak demand in OECD economies, making the global rebound in demand more muted than in 2004-2007.

Despite the auto industry-focused nature of the fiscal stimulus in many countries–especially China–the incentive to buy more fuel-efficient cars suggests the growth in oil product demand will continue to be more muted than this buying surge would indicate. Moreover, with prices tied more closely to global market prices, more of a price increase would be passed on to the consumers in China. Other Asian countries have likewise poked holes in their subsidy regimes. Finally, the addition of refinery capacity in the Middle East and Asia removes one price pressure as the chance of product shortages are lower.via munknee.com

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Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Roubini Quote : "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.

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