Predictions differ on voter turnout for Tuesday's primary vote

MONTGOMERY -- Secretary of State Beth Chapman said turnout for Tuesday's primary could be as high as 40 percent, but she's worried the election is coming the day after Memorial Day.

"Monday is a major holiday and with people coming back to work on Tuesday, they may be overwhelmed," she said Friday.

Chapman said voters should remember that polls will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m., and all will be equipped to accommodate the disabled.

In predicting a turnout of between 35 and 40 percent, Chapman said she based that on hotly-contested races in both parties for governor and attorney general.

Like Chapman, Rep. Mike Hubbard of Auburn, chairman of the Alabama Republican Party, said he's concerned the holiday may dampen turnout on Tuesday.

But Hubbard said the Republican Party is predicting that a record 462,000 Alabamians will cast votes in the GOP primary.

"I think the gubernatorial race is going to drive a lot of people to the polls," he said.

Alabama has more than 3 million register voters.

Hubbard said he believes as many as half of the voters who turn out on Tuesday will be Republicans.

"I believe we will have more voters in the Republican primary than the Democrat primary, and I believe that may be a first," he said.

Joe Turnham of Auburn, chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party, predicted a turnout in the low to mid 30 percent range.

He said he expected between 500,00 to 600,000 Republicans to cast ballots, compared to 400,000 Democrats.

"Republicans have spent so much money out in the governor's and attorney general's races," he said. "We didn't have that dynamic race, although (Artur) Davis and (Ron) Sparks will generate some (turnout)."

Turnham said local races will dictate turnout more so than races on the statewide ballots.

Dr. Jess Brown, professor of political science and justice studies at Athens State University, said he would be surprised if turnout reached 40 percent in Tuesday's vote.

But he agreed with Hubbard that there may be more votes in the GOP primary than in the Democratic primary.

And Brown went a step further, predicting that might be a tell-tale sign of Republican strength in the November general elections.

Meanwhile, Chapman said workers will be on duty at her office and at county courthouses around the state on Memorial Day, although the offices will not be open to the public.