Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Sac-Joaquin Section
Live Results: http://timerhub.com/get_web_index.php?page=redcaptiming.com/2016/sjsxc/Just for perspective, the 15:08 for Luis Grijalva converts to 14:20 at the Crystal Springs course on the time converter on the www.lynbrooksports.com website. You may quibble about how accurate that is but keep in mind that the only boy to run faster than Grijalva and Vernau yesterday was German Fernandez during the same season in which he ran 14:24 at Woodward Park.

54 comments:

Luis Grijalva (15:08) and Michael Vernau (15:10) both ran unbelievable races at Sac-Joaquin section finals. Before today, only German Fernandez (15:03) had gone under 15:25 on the course, and when he ran that time the course was about 35 meters shorter--about a 6 second difference. Two weeks after that race, he ran 14:24 at Woodward Park. Based on today I'd expect Vernau and Grijalva to be serious contenders at the national meets, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both dipped into the 14:30s at state.

Echoing the first post. The Grijalva/Vernau battle was epic, they both went straight to the front and laid it all out on the line. They ran elbow to elbow for almost the whole race in what turned out to be a relatively hot day. I have followed SJS for years and just an incredible performance by both young men. Woodward Park is obviously more of a speed course, but as seen at Clovis and Woodbridge, that might actually suit Grijalva more. The only loss Grijalva took this season (not counting sub-section where he and many others just ran at tempo to qualify) was the extremely hilly Lagoon Valley where Vernau took the win. with Grijalva, Vernau, Alexandra Beitia, Jake Ritter and the Davis girls, NorCal will surely be heard from at the state meet, can't wait!

For those wishing for the CCS to adopt the same divisional cut-offs as the SS (and now NCS), here are what they qualifiers would be (of course, assuming everyone runs exactly the same even if shifted divisions):

So, CCS would be much weaker in DI, moderately weaker in DII, stronger in DIII, a little stronger in DIV, and the same in DV. Not that much more competitive at the state level, and even that improvement would probably be washed out if all other sections adjusted their divisions. The real difference is that much weaker teams would qualify in DI and DII with many strong DIII and DIV teams left home.

If you would like to see a video of the SJS D1 Boys Championship where Grijalva and Vernau went toe to toe, Jesuit's Coach Lange posts all the videos of his team's performances up on the Jesuit Track public YouTube site: https://youtu.be/hHAOkaWTG5U They do a really good job of catching a good amount of the action.

Great battle between Saint Francis and Willow Glen. It looks like WG's normal #3 runner (Dal Canto) faded to their #7. Had he run his normal race, it's likely WG would have won. I still think it's unfortunate that small public schools like WG have to compete against private WCAL schools. The public schools are at a clear disadvantage as they can't pull from the entire area.

@11:20 I'm not sure you can say Dal Canto faded at CCS. He ran a PR for that distance and course. He ran 17:35, his previous best was 18:23 (at least from what is posted). That tells me that if he is the usual #3 and finished #7, the rest of the team really stepped up. That also tells me that he probably doesn't like the Crystal course very much and will do better at State. If that is the case, SF will have to step it up to finish as the #1 CCS team.

With regard to the public/private issue, school size is a much bigger determinate of potential success. That is already factored by having divisions. I'm sure SF isn't that happy about getting beat up in league by Bell, a D1 school, but those are the breaks.

Is the above post trolling for an argument? Because private schools don't pull from an entire area, they pull from a population that has to be able to afford to tuition. And Willow Glen does just fine against the privates. And what about Palo Alto and Gunn? The schools are more "private" than the private schools you are referring to.

Not sure if anybody pays attention but most of the top teams in the state are large public schools. Most of the best smaller schools in the state especially in Division V are private. Most of the top teams in NCS are public schools. I can keep going. There are plenty of successful public and private schools in California.

There are plenty of great public schools that do well, but to pretend that the private schools do not benefit from an unlevel playing field is extremely naive. SF could care less about being beat at WCAL. The leagues don't really mean anything. Most good teams do the bare minimum just to qualify to CCS. Most CCS schools aren't in the same neighborhood as Paly or Gunn, and even these schools still don't get to decide who goes there.

@3:29 I am not sure if you have been to a WCAL XC meet. While it might be true that a lot of schools don't care about league, Bell and SF care a lot and go after each other. It might be one of the reasons they have so much fight at the end of the year. On the ability of private schools to draw from a wider range, that is technically true but let's be honest, very few kids are picking a school because of the running program. The fact remains that the size of the school dictates the success of the program more than anything else. That's true even among the private schools - Bell is larger and tends to dominate SF, SI, etc. The reason private schools do better in the CCS than their counterparts in the SS and some other sections is that there is very little difference in size between the publics and privates in the CCS. Typically the public schools are much larger than the privates and where that occurs the larger schools prevail as predicted by the numbers.

Just not WCAL #1 I guess. I don't recognize a lot of the SF or Bell kids from that one. There's a nice back and forth between the 2 schools, but iIll bet anyone of the kids on either team would say they value any of the invites, CCS, and CIF way more. 6 out of 9 CIF slots in D1-3 went to WCAL schools. If these schools aren't drawing in disproportionate talent, then why aren't the largest schools in these division winning? I think a few more of the top kids are choosing these programs for athletics then you'd like to let on, just like I'm sure a large portion of top athletes at these schools aren't paying 20k in tuition.

SI draws kids from the City, Peninsula, and I've even seen kids going there from Marin county. Once again, for someone to say that these schools do not have a clear advantage is being very disingenuous. I'm not complaining. It's an unfair world. It makes it even more sweet when a local school like WG, or even Carlmont beats them. Just stop acting like it's an even playing field. If you do then you don't know what your talking about.

WCAL #1 was serious as well. It just didn't include the starting 7 from either team. That was a function of Stanford pushing back a week. It did not diminish the battle for the title that went down to the final and only 7 points between Bell and SF. I agree that WCAL dominated the state bids this year but it is a cop out to say that it's all due to kids choosing their school because of the running program. Coaching, culture, dedication all have a major impact and WCAL is well placed in all of those right now. Just last year, SF's top 7 included 4 kids that did not run their freshman year and 2 others that started XC as freshman. How in the world could someone say that those kids went to SF because of XC. Doesn't make any sense. Finally, I can personally guarantee that nobody is getting a scholarship to run at these schools. There is finacial aid for those that need it, but there is no money for sports, let alone XC.

Getting kids with experience before high school doesn't seem to be a problem for the other team in question. Kinda makes you wonder if one of those runners resides within WG boundaries, and how that might impact things. Great job discovering talented kids, but I think you also added a pretty well experienced one last year too. Once again. What if an athlete of that caliber could just decide he now wants to attend WG?

Let's be real. Absolutely no one pays money to go to a private school just for running. Today is about academics. And let's also be realistic about the fact that no money is allocated for runners (though I bet football, volleyball and basketball are). But no one outside of this nitche would care enough to provide "need based aid" for a runner. That's just reality.

Population is key. Also the successful programs all have long term coaches. I can't think of one coach in the WCAL who doesn't have at least 10+ years coaching experience.

There are advantages. There are disadvantage. But the public schools are winning The state titles, not the private schools.

Okay, a few things we can all agree on: private schools can draw from anywhere and kids have a choice, public schools have boundaries and a monopoly over kids in their area (except for the preceding), and Bell is the evil empire. Let's start a new thread about all the great kids running at state and how well CCS is going to do.

Coaching, culture, and dedication are strong at a lot of public schools. One big difference is that one of Northern California's top incoming freshman can't just decide to attend one of these schools for those reasons unless he resides within that schools boundaries. That's a pretty nice advantage to have. You may not have a JO U13 who's who like your competition, but I'd argue adding an athlete of the caliber you did last season just by chance could propel and already good program over the top. When you live in Palos Verdes, and Jeff Atkinson is your coach, you don't go to private school. There are reasons why the schools from SS dominate. They are different from the reasons WCAL dominate. Go look at Trabuco Hills, and Great Oak on a map. Circle the nearest 4,500 kids and see what you get.

@9:53 I think 8:59 was not saying that the public schools don't have those things but that WCAL has an abundance right now. You are right that the privates have an advantage in part because kids can choose the school that best fits them both academically and athletically. The programs on top will draw the better runners, especially if their local public school does not have a good program. In my opinion, that is a good thing. Why should a talented kid be forced to go to a school with a bad coach or program that is not supported by the school? If the public school has a great program (eg Homestead, WG, etc.) that decision is not so cut and dry, especially when private schools in the area cost so much. While it might not seem fair, ultimately I think the the current situation makes all of the schools have to try harder and therefore makes CCS that much better. Just an opinion.

That's more of a fluke with D3 this year as only 4 of the top 10 schools in combined scoring were from the WCAL. You also conveniently leave out DIV where all three qualifiers are public schools even though you would think that the private school advantage would be greater in smaller schools. Also, in the girls only 3 of the 9 spots in DII-DIV went to private schools (I'm not counting DI as there are no girls teams in DI). In fact, if you look at the combined scoring in the past 10 years, you actually see that the private schools (total, not just WCAL) are hardly dominating:

Pretty comparable. What you really see when you look at the results over the years is that it's pretty much always the SAME teams over and over again. Apart from the WCAL and SCVAL schools, it's Aptos and SLV in the girls and Willow Glen and Carlmont for the boys.

I think some of you are being influenced by recency bias. That is, just because Bellarmine and St. Francis are doing so well in the boys right now, you lose sight of the fact that it hasn't always been that way. Just look at 2011 when Carlmont was the best boys team and Bellarmine the only private school in the top 17! Where was the private school advantage then?

For the life of me, I am always unpleasantly surprised by how frequently conversations on this site shift towards a private vs. public debate. Albert does this as a labor of love and so for one am incredibly grateful. You look at sites like Prep Cal Track which is skewed towards SoCal and is mostly a bunch of results cut and pasted from timing sites. Here you get the chance for discussion, interviews with runners and coaches, race previews and recaps and it's all for free. I reside and have a son that runs in the Sac Joaquin Section where I don't hear these arguments nearly as much. There were some great performances by some amazing athletes this weekend which I kind of hoped would be the focus rather than going back to the same old argument that has been discussed ad nauseum previously.

Crystal Springs Uplands School used to compete in NCS until 2008 and I rarely heard any chatter about private and public schools (only the occasional DLS football recruits bla bla bla). It's a different story in CCS due to the WCAL schools and their dominance in a lot of sports. There is no question that it's a tough league and they are a force but that is not going to change anytime soon and you can either complain about those schools or roll up your sleeves and get to work.

According to Rich Gonzalez's latest Individual rankings, there are several CCS boys that have a shot at the State top 10: D1-2; D2-1; D4-2; D5-2. Because of his bias toward the SS, I think he has left off several others that could easily be on that list. We could get as many as 10-12 boys in the top 10's! Nothing illustrates the assendancy of NorCal running than getting individuals on the podium. The Mile Split 5K sort shows the following for CCS teams: D1-Bellarmine #3, Palo Alto #10; D2-St. Francis #3, Willow Glen #5; D4-SLV #9; D5-CSUS #6, Nueva #8. What a great time to be a fan of CCS running!

Combined scoring? The year before the WCAL swept D2 girls CIF bids, and took 5 out of 9 in D1-3 boys. That's a pretty good percentage even if you include D4 and 5. Was that a fluke too? The top 3 WCAL schools make state almost every year, no matter school size or division. Now it's become 5 or 6. The SCVAL is comprised of 2 leagues, DAL, and EC, and most of the schools are much larger than the WCAL schools. Remember, that's why SCVAL gets 6 auto qualifiers in track, and WCAL only gets 2. Nice pick on Carlmont, Aptos, SLV, Gunn, and WG. So it looks like to me that you better have college caliber coaching if you want to even compete. The depth the WCAL schools are able to stockpile is not something you're going to be able to overcome by just rolling up your sleeves. Maybe in D5, but with the clubs in CCS now funneling a large percentage of anyone who's run well before HS to these schools, the divide will only continue to grow. There are plenty of good experienced coaches that feel the same. There's nothing wrong with kids picking the best fit. The problem is that most of the other teams that compete are not afforded this luxury, and you better believe its affected competitive balance.

It seems that the ones defending WCAL are either parents or students in those private schools. There is simply no comparison when it comes to access to talent. WG is an anomaly because they have an amazing coach who is also a teacher that encourages kids to go out for XC. Otherwise, most schools have to work with what they've got. Sure, elite runners show up at every school, public and private. But it's the DEPTH of high quality runners that enables Bellarmine and SF to consistently win CCS and qualify for state.

I am not sure there is a great solution. The same thing happens in SJS where Jesuit dominates in XC year after year. These private schools will always have a much wider talent pool to pull from, whether people want to admit it or not.

Maybe instead of complaining put the energy into supporting your local public school. Go to board meetings and push for more funding. Push for smaller class sizes, more AP classes, more electives, funding to update classrooms. I am a teacher and coach at a public school. But nothing will change if you don't fight for it.

Excellent point. Please direct some of your anger at SHC, Riordan, Mitty, SI, Pres, Notre Dame, Valley Christian, Serra. Or maybe has more to do with the actual culture and training than the geography or price tag.

November 14, 2016 2:09 PM says "And Willow Glen does just fine against the privates. "

Bellarmine and Saint Francis are strong in large part due to their coaching. Patrick McCrystle is a top notch coach and can build a great program anywhere, he happens to be at Bellarmine. The Pompei brothers @ SF are talented knowledgable runners. Victor at WG is an amazing coach and even better person. Craig Blockus is already making an impact at Mountain View. Kenrick Sealy is doing it at Homestead. Rob Collins did it at SLV. The list goes on and on. These coaches have worked hard to build strong programs. These programs are building great leaders who are holding the new runners accountable. The new runners have great role models and they are learning the program and they will, in time, teach the Freshman.

Sure, there will always be very talented kids who decide their home school is not a good fit and they decide to attend Bell or SF; that is a great decision. This does give some private schools an advantage but that is just fine. Again, Patrick has built a great culture and he is turning out great runners who are good citizens. This is all about the kids and he is good for them. We are happy and honored to compete against them when give the opportunity Good luck to all at State, I know they will all make us proud.

Predictions? I am a NorCal homer, I appreciate all the kids in the state doing well, but have a soft spot for the kids I have seen run over the last couple of years here in Northern California. In D1 with Grijalva, Vernau and Beaudoin-Rousseau you could see not only a Northern California champion, but also 3 runners at the top of the podium. In D2 Jake Ritter and Tre Lockwood of Granite Bay should finish high and obviously Cooper Teare will be the favorite in D5. On the girls side you have Alexandra Beitia and Izzy Fauria at the top of the D2 rankings, Glennis Murphy in D3 and Cassidy Haskell in D4 and Kierra Marshall in D5. We could be looking at one of the greatest years of NorCal individuals in history. I haven't looked much at the teams yet, but we could start a whole new discussion on school size in Southern California versus Northern California.

2004 Bellarmine was 4th in league. A few years later Saint Francis boys didn't even make CCS. Also how many State Champions do these schools have? How many CIF team titles? Have they even been on the podium in the last 10 years? What was the last WCAL school to put a team in the top 3? When was their last state champ track or XC? Get the point? It's much easier to win at a public school than a private.

2004 Bellarmine was 4th in league. A few years later Saint Francis boys didn't even make CCS. Also how many State Champions do these schools have? How many CIF team titles? Have they even been on the podium in the last 10 years? What was the last WCAL school to put a team in the top 3? When was their last state champ track or XC? Get the point? It's much easier to win at a public school than a private.