No stampede back for cattle ranchers

By William Pack :
September 2, 2012
: Updated: September 3, 2012 8:48am

Daylon Maddox tosses out cattle feed to his livestock near Christine, Texas on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2012. The drought has taken its toll on the land and have forced cattle ranchers like Maddox to have to supplement their cattle feed since grass and other vegetation which the livestock would normally feed on has become scarce.

Photo By Kin Man Hui/SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

About a dozen head of cattle wait for rancher Daylon Maddox to put out food near Christine, Texas on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2012. The drought has taken its toll on the land and have forced cattle ranchers like Maddox to have to supplement their cattle feed since grass and other vegetation which the livestock would normally feed on has become scarce.

Photo By Kin Man Hui/SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

Ty Keeling moves his yearlings toward a feed trough on his ranch near Pleasanton, Texas on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2012. The drought has taken its toll on the land and have forced cattle ranchers like Keeling to have to supplement their cattle feed since grass and other vegetation which the livestock would normally feed on has become scarce. Keeling said that in a non-drought period the area pictured would normally have lush vegetation for the livestock to feed.

Photo By Kin Man Hui/SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

Ty Keeling watches his yearlings feed from a trough on his ranch near Pleasanton, Texas on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2012. The drought has taken its toll on the land and have forced cattle ranchers like Keeling to have to supplement their cattle feed since grass and other vegetation which the livestock would normally feed on has become scarce. Keeling said that in a non-drought period the area pictured would normally have lush vegetation for the livestock to feed.

Staggered by drought last year, the Texas cattle industry remains woozy and somewhat smaller this year despite a boost from storms that peppered the state.

The problem is the rains were not widespread or heavy enough to replenish pastures and fill stock tanks so cattle herds could be rebuilt. High beef prices and rising feed costs also have encouraged ranchers to sell rather than restock their inventory.

“There hasn't been much rebuilding going on,” said Bill Hyman, executive director of the Independent Cattlemen's Association of Texas. “The pastures have not come back well enough, and ranchers are not convinced we're out of the drought.”

They have good reason for that skepticism.

While the blistering drought in the Midwest has dominated headlines, most of Texas, which sustained a record-breaking drought in 2011, is still coping with inadequate water and excessive heat.

The newest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows that almost 15 percent of Texas still faces “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions. An additional 25 percent of the state has conditions considered “severe.”

So instead of making a strong push to refortify a herd that sustained drastic cuts last year, ranchers are holding their own and hoping forecasts of heavier rainfall in the coming months hold true.

“We'll have to sell off more cattle if it doesn't rain real quick,” said Frank Helvey, who raises cattle south of San Antonio.

Helvey, like other area ranchers, culled more than half his herd last year as the drought dried up water tanks and sent feed prices skyrocketing. Helvey said he bought a few heifers this year with hopes of increasing his calf inventory down the road but fears that the plan will backfire.

“You need rains spread out over several months, not one or two big rains. That's when you'll grow grass,” he said.

While ranchers in Kansas and Missouri are looking to sell cattle rather than face the costs the drought is imposing there, ranchers in Texas have not been in a buying mood.

“No one's willing to take the risk until their pastures recover,” said Joe Taylor, the agricultural agent in Atascosa County for the Texas AgriLife Extension Service. “They're not going to put cattle back on it, especially with cattle prices so high.”

Drought remains

The drought has weakened in Texas this year but has not disappeared.

State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said Texas in 2012 has received fairly normal rainfall, but it has not been distributed evenly enough to give much relief.

The eastern portion of Texas from around Victoria to Longview has received enough rainfall to drop out of the drought category, but four areas, including a stretch in South Texas near Kingsville, continue to hold the most-severe drought ranking.

Pleasanton rancher Ty Keeling said rains helped replenish pastures just south of San Antonio but not in leases he acquired farther southwest and in Mexico.

“Those leases had just enough rain to be better than last year, but not much,” he said.

The more grass that Keeling can use to put weight on his cattle, the less he has to pay for high-priced feed in feedlots, where steers are fattened before slaughter.

With good pastureland harder to find, his cattle are going to feedlots earlier and lighter than normal, which has cut into Keeling's bottom line.

Pasture recovery slow

David Anderson, a livestock economist for the extension service, said it's difficult for the industry to rebound in one year after an extreme drought because pastures normally take more time to recover.

Texas pastures have been scorched by eight droughts of varying severity since 1998, the extension service reports.

A U.S. Department of Agriculture report last week said 66 percent of the pastureland in the South Plains — primarily Texas and Oklahoma — was in poor or very poor condition, Anderson said.

That's twice the five-year average for that level through 2010 but not as bad as it was a year earlier, when 93 percent of the South Plains pastures were considered subpar.

Cattle prices have fallen in recent months as a result of rising feed costs triggered by the drought in the Midwest, but they are still higher than a year ago.

Anderson said the strong prices can encourage producers to rebuild herds. But until pastures improve enough to handle the extra load, restocking will be limited, he said.

Looking ahead

Improved weather this year has helped ranchers, but they still could trim their cow numbers again, Anderson said, probably only a “marginal decline — a couple of percent primarily in the driest areas.”

Last year, 660,000 beef cows were slaughtered or moved to other states, a 13.1 percent reduction that was the biggest one-year decline in that count ever.

Texas still is the national leader in beef production, with 11.9 million head of cattle and calves as of Jan. 1, according to an annual USDA survey. That amounts to 13 percent of the nation's beef inventory.

Forecasters predict above-average rainfall for the state through the winter as El Niño conditions emerge. That also would improve the beef industry's outlook.

But producers are wary.

“They've been talking about that for six months, but we haven't seen it yet,” said Mark Carroll, a Lytle-area farmer who quit ranching almost two years ago as the drought deepened.

Daylon Maddox, who raises cattle with his father on leases south of San Antonio near Christine, said that with rains early this year, calves sold in the spring produced a profit.

The rains have been scarce since May, and Maddox is worried that he won't have a chance to rebuild a herd that was reduced to about half its size as the drought began last year.

“I hope to rebuild the herd when it does turn around,” Maddox said. “Sooner or later, the good Lord is going to bless us with more rain. Everyone will be happy-go-lucky.”