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End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

The clash of the titans is over. Ford's Falcon and Holden's Commodore will likely be phased out within months of each other in 2016.

Ford has said for some time the future of the Falcon and its Broadmeadows manufacturing facility are not guaranteed beyond the end of 2016. Overnight at the Detroit motor show, Holden inadvertently confirmed the Commodore's run is due to come to an end about the same time.

The moves will mark the end of an iconic battle that has lasted more than half a century

The revelation comes a day after Holden admitted that the jobs of the 320 workers at its Port Melbourne V6 engine plant are in jeopardy beyond the end of 2016 as car buyers around the world shift to four-cylinder cars.

In an interview with Australian journalists the boss of Holden Mike Devereux said: "VF (Commodore) will run through to the end of 2016. We have a current plan to put a second (vehicle type) into the plant before 2017."

Mark Twain had the bizarre pleasure of reading his own obituary. It would be a salutary experience.

The obit for Australian car manufacturing, however, has the aspect of a soap opera. It’s been running for years with the same grinding inevitability and fading stars.

Rumours that the death have of those one-time Strayan icons – Ford’s Falcon and Holden’s Commodore – have not in fact been exaggerated were confirmed today at the Detroit motor show. Once the champions in the two-horse race that was the local new car stakes, both nameplates will be sent to the knackery in 2016 (or at best be assigned to imported American models).

In the case of the Falcon particularly, the announcement is in the manner of a mercy killing. Though heavily subsidised and discounted it sputtered to a miserable 14,000 sales in 2012. The single best-selling model of the year, the ubiquitous Mazda3 small car, did more than 44,000.

Perhaps more tellingly, the fallen local hero was left behind by the Thai-made Ford Focus, an excellent small car festooned with clever equipment, imported under the free trade agreement.

Adieu too to the Territory SUV that is based on and built alongside the Falcon. Just as the Falcon is displaced by the Yank made Taurus, the only home-made SUV is deleted for the Explorer as Ford becomes a full importer.

It’s only slightly less surprising that the writing for the Commodore has moved from the wall to the tombstone.

The Commodore lost 25 per cent of its sales last year, slumping to a historic low of 30,000. This, coming barely after Holden said 320 jobs are in jeopardy at its V6 engine making plant, is hardly an auspicious introduction to next month’s new, more upmarket VF Commodore.

There is a sense of relief that the pretence is finally over. Certainly American auto executives won’t miss their annual Detroit hazing by Australian journalists determined to extract some crumb as to the future of cars assembled in Melbourne and Adelaide.

The question is, while this marks the end of something, does it signify the beginning of something else?

The odds that a small SUV will be the second volume model line built at Holden’s Elizabeth assembly plant from 2017 are shortening dramatically as Commodore sales spiral.

But at the same time, there is a chance the VF Commodore could also continue to be built as a third model line to service the US police car market and the domestic ute market.

Both scenarios came into clearer focus today at the Detroit motor show, as Holden Managing Director Mike Devereux sought to clarify apparently contradictory statements to the media about future Holden’s manufacturing plans.

While General Motors International Operations chief Tim Lee told Australian media that only one of two post-2017 global architectures had been chosen, current GM North American boss – and former Holden chief – Mark Reuss said that both lines had been finalised.

As Mr Devereux explained it, both men were right; Holden has signed a co-investment scheme with the federal and South Australian governments to build cars based on two global architectures, but the boom in SUV sales is prompting a review of one of those choices.

Still certain to go ahead in 2015 is the second-generation Cruze small car based on the updated Delta II architecture. But the second line, thought to be a mid-sized car based on the Epsilon architecture, may now be replaced.

“We have a plan that we signed with the government of Australia that does define two architectures,” Mr Devereux confirmed.

“Could we change the second one if things continue to change? Yes we could.”

“We are evaluating … what is exactly the right thing to do on that second architecture. We have a mainstream plan that’s in a government document, in that contract, and that’s the current plan we are following.”

Mr Devereux said whichever way Holden opted to go, the decision would have to be made soon: “As far out as you have to plan this stuff at what point do you say ‘that’s our plan and even if get new information we can’t change’. We are right in that timeframe.”

SUV sales grew 25 per cent in Australia in 2012, while passenger car sales grew only 3.1 per cent.

To viably manufacture in Australia Mr Devereux has insisted Holden has to build two top-10 sellers. While no SUV currently fills that bill, their rate of sales growth suggests that will happen by the second half of this decade or sooner.

“(Holden is) forecasting out into the next decade, which makes the growth of SUVs in the last year quite an important data point to consider,” he said.

“We have pretty dynamic projections for what this market looks like and they look a little different to what they did 12 months ago. I don’t know if you predicted 27 (sic) per cent SUV growth, we didn’t.”

Mr Devereux spoke enthusiastically about the sales potential of small SUVs, citing the potential of the Barina-based Trax which Holden will import from Korea this year.

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Is this in-line with rumors of transferring production to Canada and continuing with a 2017 "Caprice", or next-gen Commodore? Thought that was the game plan when GM started importing the Caprice police car to the States, eventually replacing it with a next gen made in NA?

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Shame. Long name plates dying. GM can keep the comodore alive on alpha. See no reason why not

Ford should have replaced the crown Vic with the falcon 15 years ago in the USA as a 4 door rwd alternative to the mustang.

Rumors have circulated that the 2015 Mustang chassis could be used for the basis of a new Falcon. But, I don't think the underlying chassis is the deciding factor. Ford doesn't want to build the body & install the engines (even if they import them, like Holden does). Makes me wonder if there may be a plan for the 2015 Mustang platform to have a 4-door partner to be exported to Oz instead of the Taurus. I understand Aussie buyers not being enthused about the Taurus. It doesn't sell like gangbusters here either.

Originally Posted by JoeT

The Commodore sedan and wagon can be replaced, but the Ute?

Hasn't the Ute pretty much been outsold (replaced on the sales chart) by the Colorado? The Falcon Ute doesn't sell anywhere close to the Ranger either.

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Originally Posted by SCCA1995

Rumors have circulated that the 2015 Mustang chassis could be used for the basis of a new Falcon. But, I don't think the underlying chassis is the deciding factor. Ford doesn't want to build the body & install the engines (even if they import them, like Holden does). Makes me wonder if there may be a plan for the 2015 Mustang platform to have a 4-door partner to be exported to Oz instead of the Taurus. I understand Aussie buyers not being enthused about the Taurus. It doesn't sell like gangbusters here either.

Hasn't the Ute pretty much been outsold (replaced on the sales chart) by the Colorado? The Falcon Ute doesn't sell anywhere close to the Ranger either.

It's pretty irrelevant how much the sales of Colorado or ranger are more than Ute's

The Ute is an Australian invention and should stay

People may refer to Colorado's and Hilux and Ranger as Utes but they are not Utes

If someone can please show me teh Car they are based on then i will concede they are but until then there are only 2 Utes sold in the Market and that is Commodore and Falcon

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

There is no doubt that the market demographic in Australia has been changing to one that favors smaller cars over bigger cars and FWD over RWD.

Though my personal opinion, is they shouldn't kill these cars but instead this is the time to be innovative. What is it about the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon and the vehicles that people are picking over them that is causing this shift. Is this coming from people just wanting smaller vehicles? then down size the two vehicles slightly after all GM already has a platform for this in the Alpha. Is it a concern over fuel economy, make a Alpha based Commodore that is roughly the same size but 300-500 pounds lighter. Give it the 2.0T as the base engine mated to either a 7 speed manual gear box or an 8 speed automatic. Make the vehicle a bit more aerodynamic and use every trick that they can use to get a 2.0T 8 speed Commodore up to 40MPG on the highway (or better). Something tells me that if Holden produced a Commodore that was just as roomy, plenty fast, and got fuel economy that was on par with mid sized FWD and even some compacts that Australians would start buying them once more.

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Originally Posted by 63GrandSport001

There is no doubt that the market demographic in Australia has been changing to one that favors smaller cars over bigger cars and FWD over RWD.

Though my personal opinion, is they shouldn't kill these cars but instead this is the time to be innovative. What is it about the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon and the vehicles that people are picking over them that is causing this shift. Is this coming from people just wanting smaller vehicles? then down size the two vehicles slightly after all GM already has a platform for this in the Alpha. Is it a concern over fuel economy, make a Alpha based Commodore that is roughly the same size but 300-500 pounds lighter. Give it the 2.0T as the base engine mated to either a 7 speed manual gear box or an 8 speed automatic. Make the vehicle a bit more aerodynamic and use every trick that they can use to get a 2.0T 8 speed Commodore up to 40MPG on the highway (or better). Something tells me that if Holden produced a Commodore that was just as roomy, plenty fast, and got fuel economy that was on par with mid sized FWD and even some compacts that Australians would start buying them once more.

They allready get better fuel ecconomy than the other default choice which is small to midsize SUV's

Midiszers don't even come close to Falcon and Commodore with the exception of Camry

No the biggest problem faced is the general pubil that seem to be totally against anything built by Ford or Holden these days

They are termed dinasaurs when in fact they are more advanced than most Toyotas and Mazdas that people seem to be buying now days

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Im sorry to hear that the Commodore won't be produced after 2016. If GM really believes that the alpha platform is global, there is no reason why a version of alpha couldn't be assembled in Oz if there was sufficient demand for such a car. If there is the demand, then GM makes the ultimate decision.
From my understanding, the CTS+ size alpha that will be the Cadillac CTS and may be an Impala SS, among others, is very close in size to the current Commodore in length and wheelbase, while being a lighter more dynamic better handling car that includes awd and is much more modern, and which GM itself has stated is a global platform.
Considering that apparently the earlier Commodores were smaller, a smaller Commodore on the alpha platform could be a return to a better size, while having enough room for nearly any engine that GM produces.
I don't buy the argument that the price of the Aussie dollar making Aussie cars uncompetitive, but we know that GM produces in low cost countries and has won wage concessions from the UAW, including a starting wage around $12-14 per hour in the USA and Canada, so that may make the alpha sedan a better choice for export from North America to other places, including Oz.
Not the best solution for Oz, but it may be the only way to have Holden GM rwd performance sedans after 2016.

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

Originally Posted by 63GrandSport001

[snip]
Something tells me that if Holden produced a Commodore that was just as roomy, plenty fast, and got fuel economy that was on par with mid sized FWD and even some compacts that Australians would start buying them once more.

Re: End of the road for Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon in 2016

It's pretty irrelevant how much the sales of Colorado or ranger are more than Ute's

The Ute is an Australian invention and should stay

People may refer to Colorado's and Hilux and Ranger as Utes but they are not Utes

If someone can please show me teh Car they are based on then i will concede they are but until then there are only 2 Utes sold in the Market and that is Commodore and Falcon

The rest are light trucks or pick ups

Not Utes

I'm not against the car based Ute. In fact, I want one for my own, but GM says no. I'm just saying that if the parent car models disappear, will the Utes then be based on a FWD chassis? Then it becomes a larger version of Chevy's Montana/Tornado.

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