Fewer whites in workforce by end of decade

Hispanics to contribute to nearly three quarters of labor market’s growth

Latino employees, such as Rosa Crowell at Outsource Manufacturing in Carlsbad (shown here in February of this year), are projected to make up a larger segment of the U.S. workforce during this decade. / Photo by John Gastaldo * U-T

Latino employees, such as Rosa Crowell at Outsource Manufacturing in Carlsbad (shown here in February of this year), are projected to make up a larger segment of the U.S. workforce during this decade. / Photo by John Gastaldo * U-T

For the first time since record keeping began in the 1940s, the U.S. will have fewer non-Hispanic white workers at the end of the decade, as baby boomers begin to retire in droves.

At the same time, the nation’s burgeoning Latino population will not only fill many of those vacancies but also will make up nearly three-fourths of the predicted growth in the labor market by 2020.

The shift has been expected.

The Hispanic labor force has been growing at a fast clip since the 1970s because of immigration and a high birthrate among Hispanic Americans, with many Latinos in their working years. Hispanics also have the highest rate of participation in the workforce at 67.5 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Until now, those trends had not coincided with the departure of millions of non-Hispanic white baby boomers, said Rakesh Kochhar, associate director for research at the Pew Hispanic Center. The organization recently released an analysis of data from the labor bureau.

The changes in age and ethnicity over the next decade will reinforce some business and academic perspectives that corporations, small companies and service providers need to consider how best to recruit those new workers and capitalize on their diversity to increase productivity or improve the bottom line.

“Businesses would be smart to plan for the changing demographic, both in terms of what it means for their customer base and their workforce,” said Ruben Barrales, president and CEO of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.

The total labor force for this decade is expected to increase by 10.5 million — to 164.4 million, up 0.7 percent from the previous decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Within that growth margin, 7.7 million, or about 73 percent, are expected to be Hispanic, while the overall number of non-Hispanic white workers will decrease by 1.6 million.

“The white non-Hispanic group is still the biggest; its growth is just slowing down,” said Mitra Toossi, an economist with the labor bureau.

In 2010, Latinos made up 16.3 percent of the nation’s population and 14.8 percent of the workforce. By 2020, those figures are estimated to rise to 19.4 percent of the population and 18.6 percent of the workforce, according to the federal government.

In San Diego County, the job market is expected to swell by 125,000 workers within this decade. Of those employees, 83 percent are projected to be Hispanic. That would boost the total share of Hispanics in the workforce from 29 percent in 2010 to 33 percent in 2020, according to the San Diego Association of Governments.

Growth industries

The big story “is the retiring baby boomers leaving the work force; that is going to be a big shift culturally in the workplace,” said Beth Jarosz, senior demographer at SANDAG.

Less prevalent is the idea of staying at one company or in one industry for your entire career, she said. Younger workers, regardless of race or ethnicity, now expect to change employers and even fields several times in their lifetime.