I suspect you're right. However, what also seems true is that this original demographic, the mid-career professional, is becoming a smaller percentage of all online students. Many kids are opting for online degrees right out of high school and many residential students at B&M colleges are taking online courses alongside their classroom based courses - - - "all the classroom seats for Psych 101 were full so I'm taking the same course online..." Kids who really don't want to move from home have discovered that they can "attend" some far away school that has "the exact degree program I want" and lots of other scenarios like that.