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Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security

Last year, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin
Dempsey contended that “we are living in the most dangerous time in
my lifetime, right now.” This year, he was more assertive, stating
that the world is “more dangerous than it has ever been.”

Is this accurate? At this conference, experts on international
security will assess, and put in context, the supposed dangers to
American security. Speakers will examine the most frequently
referenced threats, including wars between nations and civil wars
within nations. Panelists will also discuss the impact of rising
nations, weapons proliferation, general unrest, transnational
crime, and state failures, as well as technological developments,
climate change, and the requirement to maintain a stable global
economic system.

Historically, states have posed the greatest threats to
international security, especially through wars that have caused
massive death and destruction. Is that still the case? What sort of
security threat does China’s growing power pose to the United
States? Another fear is that of nuclear weapons “cascades,” or a
“tipping point” beyond which a large number of states will acquire
nuclear weapons. Is such a cascade likely? What danger would such a
scenario pose to Americans? And finally, American alliances are
justified on the basis of fears that current U.S. allies would
engage in security competition or war with each other or with third
parties in the absence of U.S. security guarantees. How likely
would this result be, and what sort of threat would it pose to
Americans?

With a lack of credible state rivals since the end of the Cold
War, security studies scholars and policy analysts in the United
States have increasingly turned their attention to sub-state
threats: insurgents, terrorists, criminal networks, and
increasingly civil war, or the absence of authority itself. What
have we learned of late about the sort of danger these troubles
pose to the United States itself? To what extent should we fix,
manage, or live with the lack of authority that lets these problems
grow? Is disorder abroad a growing problem?

Beyond traditional threats to security such as wars and
terrorism, fears have arisen in response to supposed new, but less
visible, dangers. These include cybersecurity and cyberwar,
potential problems derived from climate change, and issues of
uncertainty, economic stagnation, and complexity. How do we assess
these purported threats? Should we fear general instability and
anarchy, which are persistent features of the international system?
Can we do anything about them?

To what extent does disorder threaten the global economic
system, and must the United States prevent piracy, international
crime, and general lawlessness in order to maintain our relative
prosperity? Does uncertain access to sources of energy pose a
threat to U.S. and global prosperity? The leading advocates of U.S.
global primacy contend that trade has expanded because the United
States provides a global public good of security within the
commons, and that such trade would slow or contract if the United
States were to reduce its global policing function. Does global
order depend upon a single power enforcing the rules of the game,
and is the United States capable of playing this role
indefinitely?

Max
Abrahms is an assistant professor of public policy in the
Department of Political Science at Northeastern University. His
work on asymmetric conflict focuses on the study of civil war,
insurgency, nonviolent protest, and terrorism, and his work in
international relations theory focuses on the concepts of coercion,
perception, misperception, rationality, and signaling in the
international system. Abrahms is an active term member at the
Council on Foreign Relations. He holds a PhD in political science
from the University of California-Los Angeles, an MPhil in
international relations from Oxford University, and a BA in
political science and history from the University of
Pennsylvania.

Peter
Andreas is a professor of international studies and associate
director of the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown
University. Andreas has been an academy scholar at Harvard
University, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, and an
SSRC-MacArthur Foundation Fellow on international peace and
security. Andreas has authored, co-authored, or co-edited nine
books, including, most recently Smuggler Nation: How Illicit
Trade Made America. He holds an MA and PhD in government from
Cornell University and a BA in political science from Swarthmore
College.

Stephen G.
Brooks is an associate professor of government at Dartmouth, and
has previously held fellowships at Harvard and Princeton. He is the
author of Producing Security: Multinational Corporations,
Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Conflict and
World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge
of American Primacy. He has published articles in
International Security, International
Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution,
Perspectives on Politics, Security Studies, and
Foreign Affairs. He received a PhD in political science
from Yale University in 2001 and a BA in economics and politics
from the University of California-Santa Cruz.

Michael
Cohen is a fellow at the Century Foundation and a columnist for The
Guardian newspaper. Formerly he was a senior fellow at the New
America Foundation and the American Security Project. He also
served in the U.S. Department of State as chief speechwriter for
U.S. Representative to the United Nations Bill Richardson and
Undersecretary of State Stuart Eizenstat. He has worked at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was chief
speechwriter for Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT). Michael holds a BA in
international relations from American University and an MA from
Columbia University where he is also an adjunct lecturer in the
School of International and Public Affairs.

Daniel W.
Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, a nonresident
senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a contributing
editor at Foreign Policy. Drezner has served as an
international economist at the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of
International Banking and Securities Markets. He was a nonresident
fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a
Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, and a
post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Olin Institute for
Strategic Studies, and is the author of Theories of International
Politics and Zombies He holds an MA in economics and a PhD in
political science from Stanford University, and a BA in political
economy from Williams College.

Christopher
J. Fettweis is an associate professor of political science at
Tulane University, where he teaches classes on international
relations, U.S. foreign policy, and security. He is the author of
three books, including The Pathologies of Power: Fear, Honor,
Glory and Hubris in U.S. Foreign Policy and Dangerous
Times? The International Politics of Great Power Peace, and a
number of articles that have appeared in Political Science
Quarterly, the Los Angeles Times, and other journals and magazines.
Fettweis holds a PhD in international relations from the University
of Maryland and a BA in history from the University of Notre
Dame.

Benjamin H.
Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security
studies at the Cato Institute. His areas of expertise include
counterterrorism, homeland security, and defense politics. He is
the author of dozens of op-eds and journal articles and co-editor
of two books, including Terrorizing Ourselves: Why U.S.
Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing and How to Fix It,
published in 2010. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College and a PhD
candidate in political science and an affiliate of the Security
Studies Program at MIT.

Francis J.
Gavin is the director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for
International Security and Law and the first Tom Slick Professor of
International Affairs at Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs
at the University of Texas at Austin, and the author of Nuclear
Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age. His
teaching and research interests focus on U.S. foreign policy,
global governance, national security affairs, nuclear strategy and
arms control, presidential policymaking, and the history of
international monetary relations. Gavin received a PhD and MA in
diplomatic history from the University of Pennsylvania, a master of
studies in modern European history from Oxford, and a BA in
political science from the University of Chicago.

Justin
Logan is the director of foreign policy studies at the Cato
Institute. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international
relations theory, and American foreign policy. His current research
focuses on the shifting balance of power in Asia —
specifically with regard to China — and the formation of U.S.
grand strategy under unipolarity. He holds an MA in international
relations from the University of Chicago and a BA in international
relations from American University.

Eugene
Gholz is an associate professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of
Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. From
2010-2012, Gholz was a senior adviser to the deputy assistant
secretary of defense for manufacturing and industrial base policy.
He previously taught at the University of Kentucky’s Patterson
School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. Gholz works on
innovation, defense management, and U.S. foreign policy. His recent
scholarship focuses on energy security, economic sanctions, and the
aircraft industry. He received his PhD from MIT.

Lyle
J. Goldstein is an associate professor in the China Maritime
Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. He is also a
visiting fellow of the Watson Institute of International Studies at
Brown University. His research focuses on various quandaries in
U.S.-China relations, including the imperative to enhance maritime
cooperation. Goldstein earned a PhD from Princeton University in
2001 and holds an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies.

Brendan
Rittenhouse Green is a visiting professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson
School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. He
writes on international relations theory, national security policy,
and military behavior. Green holds a PhD in political science from
MIT and an AB in political science from the University of
Chicago.

Jennifer
Keister is a visiting research fellow with the Cato Institute with
expertise in insurgency, terrorism, and the southern Philippines.
She has also worked on development challenges in conflict zones.
Her current research focuses on the structure of authority and
governance in so-called “ungoverned spaces.” She has held positions
in both the International Security and Intrastate Conflict Programs
at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at
Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, as well as at
the United States Institute of Peace, and the University of
California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. Keister
holds a PhD and an MA in political science from the University of
California-San Diego, and a BA in government from the College of
William and Mary.

Sameer
Lalwani is a PhD candidate in political science at MIT and an
affiliate of MIT’s Security Studies Program. Currently he is a
pre-doctoral fellow at George Washington University’s Institute of
Security and Conflict Studies. His dissertation research focuses on
why states choose particular military strategies to combat
rebellion, primarily in South Asia. Lalwani’s broader research
interests include U.S. grand strategy, civil conflict, ethnic
politics, civil-military relations, and national security decision
making. He holds a BA in political science from the University of
California-Berkeley.

Martin
Libicki is a senior management scientist at the RAND Corporation.
His research focuses on the impacts of information technology on
domestic and national security. This work is documented in books,
including Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and
Information Warfare and Information Technology Standards:
Quest for the Common Byte — as well as in numerous
monographs, notably How Insurgencies End, and How
Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida. Prior
to joining RAND, Libicki spent 12 years at the National Defense
University, 3 years on the Navy staff as program sponsor for
industrial preparedness, and 3 years as a policy analyst for the
U.S. General Accounting Office’s Energy and Minerals Division.
Libicki received his PhD in city and regional planning from the
University of California-Berkeley.

Austin Long
is an assistant professor at the School of International and Public
Affairs and a member of the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and
Peace Studies at Columbia University. He previously worked as an
associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research
interests include low-intensity conflict, intelligence, military
operations, nuclear forces, military innovation, and the political
economy of national security. Long received a PhD in political
science from MIT and a BS from the Sam Nunn School of International
Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

John
Mueller is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute as well as senior
research scientist at the Mershon Center and is a member of the
political science department at Ohio State University. He is a
leading expert on terrorism and particularly on the reactions (or
overreactions) it often inspires. Among his books are
Overblown, Atomic Obsession, War and
Ideas, and (with Mark Stewart) Terror, Security, and
Money. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and
Sciences, has been a John Simon Guggenheim Fellow, and has received
grants from the National Science Foundation and the National
Endowment for the Humanities. He has been a visiting fellow at the
Brookings Institution, the Hoover Institution at Stanford
University, and the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Olso. Mueller
holds both a PhD and an MA in political science from the University
of California-Los Angeles.

Paul
R. Pillar is a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for 21st
Century Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at
the Brookings Institution and a nonresident senior fellow of the
Center for Security Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of
Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He had a 28-year career
in the U.S. intelligence community, in which his last position was
National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia. His
interest in foreign policy resulted in the book Terrorism and
U.S. Foreign Policy first published in 1999 and updated in
2004. Pillar holds an MA and PhD from Princeton University, an AB
from Dartmouth College, and a BPhil from Oxford University.

Christopher
A. Preble is the vice president for defense and foreign policy
studies at the Cato Institute. He is the author of three books,
including The Power Problem: How American Military Dominance
Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free — and
has published over 150 articles in major publications including
USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, Financial
Times, and Foreign Policy. Before joining Cato in
February 2003, he taught history at St. Cloud State University and
Temple University. Preble was a commissioned officer in the U.S.
Navy, and served onboard USS Ticonderoga (CG-47) from 1990 to 1993.
Preble holds a PhD in history from Temple University.

Joshua
Shifrinson is an assistant professor at the Bush School of
Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. Shifrinson’s research
interests include grand strategy, power transitions, military
operations, energy security, and diplomatic history. His research
has been published in journals such as International
Security and the Journal of Political and Military
Sociology as well as by think tanks and research
organizations. His teaching experience includes courses on U.S.
military power and the causes of war. Shifrinson holds a PhD in
international relations and security studies from MIT, and a BA
from Brandeis University.

Mark
Stewart is a professor of civil engineering, and director of the
Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability at the
University of Newcastle, Australia, and is an Australian Research
Council Professorial Fellow. His current work focuses on the
quantification of security risks and the cost-effectiveness of
aviation security and other counterterrorism measures. He received
a PhD from the University of Newcastle and a BS in engineering from
Monash University.

Trevor
Thrall is an associate professor at George Mason University in the
Department of Public and International Affairs and the director of
the Graduate Program in Biodefense. He teaches courses in
international security, political communication, and U.S. military
intervention. He is the editor of American Foreign Policy
and the Politics of Fear: Threat Inflation since 9/11, and
the companion volume to that work, Why Did the United States
Invade Iraq? Prior to arriving at George Mason, Thrall was an
associate professor at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, where
he directed the Master of Public Policy and Master of Public
Administration programs. He received his PhD in political science
from MIT.

Thomas
Wright is a fellow at the Brookings Institution in the Managing
Global Order project. Previously, he was executive director of
studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a lecturer at the
Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, and
senior researcher for the Princeton Project on National Security.
His current projects include the future of U.S. alliances and
strategic partnerships, the geopolitical consequences of the
eurocrisis, U.S. relations with rising powers, and multilateral
diplomacy. Wright has a PhD from Georgetown University, an MPhil
from Cambridge University, and a BA and MA from University College
Dublin.