He took the SAG award, which is no bad sign, and with no clear winner in this category that’s probably the best indicator of a likely triumph.

2

It’s an eye-catching part with some of the film’s funniest lines, as well as some barnstorming speeches and great character moments. He deserves the Oscar just for gruffly shouting, at a knock on his door, “It opens!”.

3

Jones went bald under his fright wig, so he might get uglying-up points from Academy voters, who always seem impressed by that.

Why He Won't Win

1

He’s not nearly as well-loved as Alan Arkin, or as likeably foreign as Christoph Waltz.

2

He hasn’t swept all before him at the awards shows thus far, so it’s all still to play for.