Now that we’re in the final full week of the regular season, we can see the math really cutting away at some teams that were alive last week. This is because TCU cannot finish with more than one loss, and either Alabama will finish as the best-ranked team with two losses, or Auburn will not lose two games. So, that gets rid of Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. By the same logic, Michigan State, which is just marginally ahead of Alabama in the BCS, would almost certainly be passed by the Crimson Tide were it to knock off the No. 2 team in the country.

Here’s what needs to happen for the 10 remaining teams to make the title game:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech). At this point, I feel very confident saying Auburn is the only school on this list that can conceivably make the title game even after a loss in the final three weeks.

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 10 weeks, 105 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including up-until-recently unbeaten Utah. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After nine weeks, 102 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including old standby Florida State. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After eight weeks, 101 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including pre-season No. 5 Texas. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses.

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After seven weeks, 98 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including pre-season No. 4 Florida. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After five weeks, 82 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including JoePa’s Nittany Lions. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.