In this report, the challenges and opportunities arising from the growing ties between two key “Rising Powers,” China and India, and Africa are more fully explored. This trend has given rise to speculative, exaggerated and ideological responses and a mixture of anxiety and hope. What is needed is an interdisciplinary political economy study to investigate the ways in which global, regional and national linkages in the relationship impact on the prospects of sustainable development in Africa. The necessity for this is underscored by the growing influence of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in reshaping the world.In this frame, the focus is on the nature of the shift in China’s and India’s strategic vision of Africa in terms of politics, ideology and economic development. This shift impinges on trade and investment and, in turn, the scope for inducing structural economic change in the context of colonial and postcolonial tensions. Comparative observation of countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, particularly Ethiopia in the former, illustrates their capacity to cope with the new powers. This is a critical aspect of the continent’s complex interplay with states and institutions within and beyond its borders. Ultimately, African nations have to individually and collectively confront the challenges and opportunities stemming from their evolving relationships with these Rising Powers.

Migrant remittances – money and gifts sent to relatives back home – have attracted increasing international attention. The flow of remittances has become a major source of revenue for developing countries, exceeding the volume of aid. Three recent studies at Uppsala University bring this issue to light in the context of Sweden’s Policy for Global Development. Very little has so far been known about the flow of remittances from Sweden; official data indicate an amount exceeding 4 billion kronor in 2006. The real flows are most likely higher; Swedish and international studies estimate that real remittances are 30-50 per cent above the officially recorded amounts. Statistics Sweden (SCB) is recommended to enhance its records of remittances in terms of desirable scope and reliability, for instance regarding specification of the amounts remitted to different countries. Remittance flows from Sweden are linked to the remitters’ incomes and, hence, vary with the business cycle. Experience suggests that the ongoing world economic crisis will have a negative impact on remittance flows also from Sweden. It is suggested that enhanced knowledge in Sweden about available remittance services and their costs and measures to promote a better functioning remittance market could increase the net value of these money.

The forecast of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa have repeatedly been revised downwards over the last 6 months. It has now reached 2% which is close to a third of what it was a year ago, implying negative growth in per capita terms. Considerable uncertainties remain in these forecasts. Oil- and mineral exporters are likely to take a severe first hit, as collapsing commodity prices translate to reduced export revenues and foreign direct investments are paralyzed. Two additional flows that connect Africa to the global economy, where impact is harder to predict, are aid and remittances. This note explores how these flows have reacted in OECD countries during previous episodes of severe financial crises. It is shown that if these past episodes serve as a guide to the present, then a considerable reduction is to be expected. Remittances would react immediately, while the impact on aid would be lagged but being more prolonged. Given that projection, the critical need for more of accountability in international aid commitments is discussed.

There is a striking variation in the prevalence of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among countries and regions of the world, with a distinct geographical pattern. This paper explores the link between income inequality and HIV. It presents empirical evidence—a meta-study and additional cross-country regression results—that clearly support the argument that such a link exists. The interpretation of this link is an open issue. Four different hypotheses are discussed, each one pointing out a transit route from income inequality to HIV. The paper presents preliminary evidence on these routes and identifies potential areas for future research.

The potential link between child-related cash transfers and increased fertility is often raised asan issue of concern when debating their use. Old-age pension is a form of cash transfer wheretheory would suggest the opposite impact, i.e. pensions equal decreasing fertility. A handful ofSub-Saharan African countries have introduced non-contributory social pensions that cover thegreat majority of the older population. It makes them into a distinct group in relation to the rest ofthe region where public old-age security arrangements, if existing at all, are largely reserved forthe formal sector. This paper attempts to trace any impact these high-coverage pensionschemes may have had on fertility. Findings suggest that there has been such an impact, in therange of 0,5 to 1,5 children less per woman depending on model specification.