The McIntyre chronology on the #spiritofmawson ‘ship of fools’

Steve McIntyre has taken the time to create a well annotated and sourced timeline on the #spiritofmawson expedition.

He writes:

Like many others, I’ve been intrigued by the misadventures of the Ship of Fools. Dozens of tourist vessels visit the Antarctic without becoming trapped by ice. So it’s entirely valid to inquire into why the one tourist vessel led by a “climate scientist” became trapped by ice.

The leader of the expedition, Chris Turney (also a secondary Climategate correspondent and co-signer of Lewandowsky’s multisignatory letter in the Conversation), claimed that the incident could not have been predicted. He said that they were trapped by a sudden “breakout” of multi-year ice (“fast ice”) that had previously been part of the ice shelf and that there was no way that they could have anticipated this. Turney’s claim has been uncritically accepted by the climate community e.g. Turner of the British Antarctica Survey here.

However, like other recent claims by Turney, this claim is bogus. In fact, Turney was trapped by sea ice that had been mobile throughout December 2013. This can be easily seen by examining readily available MODIS imagery (see MODIS here) leading up to the incident, as I’ll do in today’s post.

I spent 3 months, on secondment, down in the Antarctic in the mid 1990’s
As my experimental site was on an island, one of the first things we were taught at Rothera Base was about the unpredictability of pack (or drift) ice.
What could be free water could very rapidly become impenetrable ice in a few minutes by a change of tide, or wind direction.
Moreover this ice was mobile and you could be carried, helplessly, many miles- and possibly beyond rescue, if trapped.
Clearly Turney was reckless.
The other thing is organising scientific research. Everything takes longer than you think in the Antarctic.
You simply cannot cruise in, spend a few hours and cruise out again.

Turney is clearly not telling the truth.
This was a (self) publicity trip that went badly wrong. He is now spinning, madly, to extricate himself.
Regrettably he is receiving assistance from those who should (and most likely do) know better (Professor Turner, BAS).

Wanna visit Antarcitca? Last call! two days left to go to the ross sea. The voyage/expedition – no longer in the spirit of mawson but in the wake of Scott and shackleton – starts on 17.1.2014 on the vessel … you guess … Academic Shoklasky!

Steve McIntyre says;
“Guardian photojournalist Laurence Topham became despondent, mourning the narrowness of his
bed and, in particular, the unavailability of peanut butter and banana milkshakes, a circumstance which, in an uncanny, almost eerie, coincidence, replicated the circumstances of the original Mawson expedition, which also lacked peanut butter and banana milkshakes.”

That will keep a few Guardian journalists and readers busy looking for the reference to peanut butter and banana milkshakes in Mawson’s log. : > )

Another victim of his own deluded, arrogant beliefs…they are not just plentiful, but so pervasive that I despair:
Is there ANYONE on the warmist side who is not an incompetent, arrogant fool?
Is there ANYONE on the warmist side who admits to mistakes (or worse) and withdraws erroneous work?

Seems to me that whatever the public cost of this rescue, in the grander scheme of ecomentalist AGW monies is truly peanuts, the return on investment for blowing a massive hole in the warmist position with the general public is phenomenal…

Of course its all’ denialist lies ‘ it all went wrong . he always planned to get stuck down there because the ice was melting and he has the models to prove it
As for the BAS , they have really dropped one by rushing in to support the fool , I guess it was a sad little attempt to save face for ‘the cause ‘ by coming up with a desperate way they could blame AGW.

The whole episode; and I’m glad that all the crews – AS, Snow Dragon, and Aurora Australis (which I visited in the 90s) – appear to be safe, with their ship.
The best outcome I (all of us) can reasonably expect.
But – a minor point to some – it highlights the need to keep a very close eye on what is happening beyond the double-glazed window (or port hole).
Out there, nature [Capitalise? Virtually if you wish] runs the show.
Nature runs the show.
Cameron, D., of Britannia’s Primary School for Elected Beginners, has told a Commons Liaison Committee that Britain is in ‘no danger’ of blackouts.
A ‘risk Britain can’t afford to take’ – well, agreed – but . . . . . .
Nature will decide if we get blackouts . . .

With candles in my drawer, remembering past Labour Governments.
I’m an old fart, who had a Liberal Poster in my window in 1964 and 1966 – Robert Goodall. I’d outgrown that by 1970 – long before I left school or went to sea.

And flashlights round the house, and a battery radio.
Just in case.

And I live in London.
Yeah, THAT London, host of the 2012 Olympics. . . . . . . . . . .
Make of that what you will.
Auto

There’s no place like home, but…
Poor judgment combined with a strong desire to get home can be deadly.
and,
“The NTSB determined the cause of this accident to be the pilot’s decision to takeoff and attempt VFR flight into IMC conditions.

VFR flight into IMC continues to be a silent, deadly killer. Although few accidents are a result of VFR into IMC, almost all of them are fatal.”
==========
The huts were the destination (get homeitis), then you need the path out of there.
It all worked out well, rescue teams got to practice, the rescuee’s got taught a lesson.
I don’t imagine anyone will be funding another shipload of such unprepared “scientists”.
Right :)

Muddle sage and thyme with apple cider. Add ice, top with Wild Turkey and cranberry jelly. Shake well, strain over ice in a glass rimmed with turkey jus and breadcrumbs.

seems especially fitting because of the holidays, and

Apple, because of the preponderance of devices in their “meda center”,
Sage, because they needed one, and either didn’t have one or ignored them,
Thyme, because they were running out of it (and ignored it),
Jelly, because it’s also lonely for its peanut butter,
Breadcrumbs, because that’s what would have been left of the food in a few weeks, and
Wild Turkey, well, because…..

and maybe this one I thought up (but wouldn’t dare drink :) )….
Spirit of Mawson

It is probable that the Guardian/BBC connections with this bungled escapade will circle the wagons and try to ensure that only CAGW media types are given access to these scientourists after their arrival in Hobart.

This UNSW initiative should be probed intensively by real investigative journalism – what little still exists in these PC times.

I’ve got a problem: I clicked on the link to read the rest but when I get to the post on climate audit the post is offset to the left, obscuring half the column. The climate audit heading and page list are centred, no problem, it’s just the article text. Is there something wrong with the link?

It is a failed quest. Think of MontyPython and the Holy Grail.
The questionis will this debacle inspire any of the participants to go public with the charlie foxtrot and madeness thatis obviouslyTurney’s style?
If so,this story could grow some legs, so to speak.

The following comment made by Steve M is particularly relevant and indicates that all the talk and excuses about how the turkeys got stuck in a floating ice pack of whatever origin is basically a red herring.

“Turney’s plight drew attention to the remarkable fact (not previously known to skeptic blogs) that Mawson had sailed directly into Commonwealth Bay, which was now blocked for 60 km by permanent ice, with Mawson’s entry to Commonwealth Bay even being recorded in an early movie.”

In other words the permanent ice conditions present now were not present when Mawson entered the Bay. That is, ice conditions in the Antarctic are indeed at record levels and have not been influenced by “global warming”, quite the contrary – full stop.

in Steve’s comments, someone mentions Alok Jha’s article about Turney & Carbonscape way back in 2009. the ever-incestuous CAGW crowd! here’s the link.

2009: Guardian: Alok Jha: ‘Biochar’ goes industrial with giant microwaves to lock carbon in charcoal
Climate expert claims to have developed cleanest way of fixing CO2 in ‘biochar’ for burial on an industrial scale
Chris Turney, a professor of geography at the University of Exeter, said that by burying the charcoal produced from microwaved wood, the carbon dioxide absorbed by a tree as it grows can remain safely locked away for thousands of years. The technique could take out billions of tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere every year…http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/13/charcoal-carbon

i’ve also posted the following in the comments, as someone mentioned it without giving a link:

Climate Audit has had a problem with the iPhone browser for a while. I think it is caused by the site detecting a mobile device and sending a different “mobile-specific” output that unfortunately doesn’t format properly.

Workaround: If you fast-scroll to the bottom of Steve’s page on an iPhone you will see the “View Full Site” hyperlink. Clicking on it will bring up the full site that formats properly. The page will now show the reverse hyperlink “View Mobile Site”. By clicking on it you would receive the unreadable mobile format again.

P.S. There is no solution to Pamela’s screen problem which is intrinsic to any inquiry into the esteemed professor’s excellent adventures in particular and CAGW in general. It occurs suddenly and without warning. I keep kitchen rags at hand.

Did this ice come loose as a result of melting in Antarctica? Because I’m sure that’s what the warmists will say, that it proves they were right rather than proving they were fools.
=========
It’s Her job to kill the weak ones, She tried.

ABSTRACT
The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135 000–116 000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2 °C higher and rates of sea-level rise >5.6 m ka−1, leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated. Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub-polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2–0.8 °C in the upper 1200 m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st-century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum-Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability.

Kind of research stuff of “What will will happen if something will happen”.

As Global Warming is reality for them, any conclusion based on that believe will be support for them.

It seems that John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey has some difficult questions to answer about his competence and independence.
He seems a very gullible and ill-informed chap.
Not sure he’s the sort you’ld want to rely on in a hostile environment.

J. Herbst says:”……And he gets a lot of angry respones. I wouldn’d feel well being him…. Here is his supporting science paper:…..”

Mr. Turkey points to East Antarctica’s ice sensitivity to ocean warming and sea level rise to back his alarmist rubbish. He probably missed this paper just like he missed the sea ice that trapped his butt.

7 JUN 2013
Recent snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in a historical and future climate perspective
[1] Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall……….
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 11, pages 2684–2688, 16 June 2013http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50559/abstract

The IPCC says they don’t know why Antarctica sea ice extent is so high. The IPCC projects more snow for Antarctica at the end of this century. The point is they need to let go of Antarctica, there is nothing alarming going on there at all, no matter how hard and fast they wave their arms and heads.

Steve McIntyre’s forensic analysis of the timeline of event is very good, Though, I am still at a loss as to why they were caught in the ice. My experience of Russian captains who work in the polar oceans, are that they are very experienced with a good record of safety. It is surprising that the captain did not take the appropriate action to avoid being trapped. It was the captain’s decision to call for a rescue and it should have been his decision to ask for the tourists evacuation. Although with hindsight the ship did not appear to be in significant danger. The inquiry should shed light on some of these questions.

Posts 1,2 and 4 are the same person, I do not see three different people writing “Prophessor”, socks be bad.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“Prophessor” comes from a comment made on Steve’s Climate Audit site by Curious George
Posted Jan 15, 2014 at 3:17 PM who also made the comment here.

You also need to look at the time stamps.
Curious George January 15, 2014 at 12:12 pm (Who comments frequently at Jo Nova’s site.)

Getting stuck in Anarctic pack ice is not unusal. The Aurora Australis was stuck for three weeks into December which is the major cause the slippage in its schedule. A tourist ship with 100 on board, a Russian icebreaker, the Kapitan Khlebnikov was caught in 2009.

Jimbo says:
January 16, 2014 at 12:38 am
…no matter how hard and fast they wave their arms and heads.
***********************************
Bet that’s what those tourists were doing when they saw the Chinese helicopter.

Turney is clearly delusional and in denial:
“Alongside the daily programme of talks, the team have been working hard on the analysis of the scientific data we have collected. Erik and Chris have been working on the salinity and temperature analyses made during the voyage south and around Commonwealth Bay. Chris Fogwill has been drilling down with New Zealand and German colleagues into the origins of the sea ice breakout event that trapped the Shokalskiy.”http://www.spiritofmawson.com/846/

Here we see that Turney’s concern for the evils of CO2 takes a backseat to his affection for the coin:
Kiwi Company Claims World First for Charcoal
A world-first invention was unveiled in Blenheim in New Zealand this week with a multi-billion dollar earning potential and the ability to impact on carbon capture on a global scale. Carbonscape has developed and patented a process for manufacturing charcoal using microwave energy – a vastly more energy efficient process than what is currently used.
The company has begun batch-scale production but hopes to raise capital to scale up to a fully-integrated continuous production. Carbonscape says that its technology can address existing biowaste streams and that it has been invited to its their technology on pine waste on site in commercial forests.

Turney’s introduction to the concept:
charcoalFortunately, however, we know from scientific studies that charcoal can store carbon for thousands of years. Ancient fires preserved in archaeological sites, including those found with ancient human remains, show carbon can be stable for thousands of years. This is because charcoal is highly resistant to microbial breakdown. Once formed, the charcoal effectively keeps the carbon out of the atmosphere and ocean for virtually indefinite periods.
We’ve taken this idea a step further at Carbonscape. Developing an industrial-scale unit, we’re converting wood waste and other biomass into charcoal. Our proprietary industrial microwave technology means that in spite of the energy used during production, the carbon captured draws down significantly more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it produces. Each industrial-scale unit converts 40-50% of wood debris into charcoal; one tonne of carbon dioxide can be fixed as charcoal per day. By converting carbon in organic material to charcoal, it can be then put into the ground where it does the most good.
At Carbonscape we hope we’re adding a new commercial reason for reforestation. Once wood has been turned into charcoal, the cleared area can be replanted, allowing us to repeat the process when the plants have matured, effectively sucking yet more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. A great example is the USA: if the 200 million hectares of forest used for timber production were turned to charcoal instead, each crop rotation would help bring carbon dioxide levels down by some 10 parts per million. And it’s not just potatoes or wood that can be turned into charcoal: other organic material (even sewage) can be turned into a permanent carbon sink.
The possibilities for fixing carbon are truly enormous.http://www.rexresearch.com/carbonscape/carbonscape.htm

The man is clearly demented if he seriously thinks we should grow forests of trees to burn off in microwave ovens. Furthermore, the entire notion belies an elementary knowledge of Chemistry. That is to say, the process of “microwaving” organic materials must release CO2 in the same way a wood fire releases CO2. Accordingly, it should come as no shock that the Carbonscape website is no longer functioning:http://carbonscape.com/

The Nature articles have a certain defender for Turney, Nathan or Nate Drake. He has made more comments than all the others combined and has written what seems like more than twice the number of words as all others.

I posted a few comments about his constant .use of the “D” word and also posted a link to this blog in which he refers to Steve as a “funded science denialist, and his claims have been debunked by peer-reviewed literature ad nauseam.” He also refers to Steve as “a economist and not a scientist”.

I also questioned him about his name “Nathan Drake” which is a toy action figure and he claimed it was his own. Richard Tol replied, “Below you write “[Nathan Drake] is my real name”. Above you write you are “an oceanographer with over a decade of experience with shipborne research”. There are no oceanographers called Nathan Drake known to any search engine.” I believe him to be a paid PR hack perhaps hired by Turney or “The Team” to defend their antics.

Perhaps others can visit the Nature article to defend Steve’s good name.

It is about stupidity and rank hypocrisy. Those eco-loons either believed their own nonsense — that the Antarctic was ice free, and they thought they were smart, or they were out to show the world they were right.

This has been and continues to be so much fun. No holiday dull drums here thanks to the “fools”. Another 7 days for them tossing and turning on the icebreaker. “Who’s idea was it to take a helicopter?”

Getting stuck in Anarctic pack ice is not unusal. The Aurora Australis was stuck for three weeks into December which is the major cause the slippage in its schedule. A tourist ship with 100 on board, a Russian icebreaker, the Kapitan Khlebnikov was caught in 2009.
Of course, such inconvenient facts are not to be mentioned.

But Mawson was not caught in ice a century ago.
What has changed?
And why do the computer models not explain it?
And why do they predict the ice extent should actually be lessening?

And why would anyone not keep their powder dry over such a terrible blunder as the microwaved charcoal salesman’s dodgy tour guide show – are you that partisan?

Responder says: “Guy’s a moron. Went to the back country with his kids and a party of amateurs. Did not have the required equipment, did not have the right maps, did not understand how quickly the weather could turn and cut them off, disregarded people telling him a blizzard was coming and avalanche danger was high. Got stuck and called 911 on his cell phone. All the nearby mountain search & rescue agencies were called. They all dropped what they were doing and got out in a hurry but conditions got so bad they couldn’t get to him. Got stuck themselves for a while. Dispatch was working the incident around the clock for weeks; teams trying to get through the snow. The guy’s giddy the whole time, doesn’t get what a mess he got himself and others into. Says he’s there on a scientific mission. Finally the weather eased up a little but the only way to get them out was extraction by helicopter. Had to fly them to a collection area first before starting on getting them slowly out of the mountains. Pure luck there was no code black on this one. None of the agencies know yet who will cover the massive costs and everybody is pissed. Other work did not get done. As I said, a herd of fools.”

Eli says: “Getting stuck in Colorado’s back country is not unusual. Even one of the best-equipped professional search & rescue teams was stuck there recently. And a larger group with all the right gear got stuck there in 2009.

Of course, such inconvenient facts are not to be mentioned.”

Do you get what you said there? Do you think the guys who had to go in—or the people who will be stuck with the bills—would tell you to shove it where the sun don’t shine?

Why sent the Russian Captain a distress call?
Why why got the Shokalsky free from the ice after the Climate-Aussies came off board?

SOLVING Nr 1.

We know since biblical times that the crew of heathen ships always asked the Gods who’s fault it was, when a misfortune arrived. Especially when the passengers were Prophets of change and doom, they just pushed them over board. Check the Book Jonah. Possibly the Russian tried to appease Nature by getting rid of them…..

SOLVING Nr 2.

The captain of the Shokalsky has as very tight schedule in his business as a regular shuttle for travellers, adventurers and hobby-scientists to Antarctica and back. Tomorrow on 17th January he will have his next drive to the way station in the Ross Sea (prices between 20000 to 30000 USD pp).http://heritage-expeditions.com/trip/wake-scott-and-shackleton-17-january-2014/
As the AAExpetition had planned further research on various islands on the way back to NewZealand, he feared further disturbance though delayed departures, and used this opportunity to get rid of that plague, avoiding to loose the money of the dear paying guests on the next drive.

SOLVING Nr. 3.

In a metaphysical way, seekers of the holy grail and prophets of godly messages need some rectification and epiphany to get their words and stance right. Possibly in the same way like Jonah, wo was brought by the big fish on land an had to gain some experience and wisdom there, Turney & Cie will have to learn even more after they arrive there. And I think some of the expeditors will already have gone through some mind-change, or will do when they make a follow-up what’s written in the web and press about them…

BTW: Everytime when I read something about Turney and his Expedition, I expected something funny – and yes, it arrived straight. But even the first time when I heard it (in German Radio) I had to laugh about it, and it was an exiting holiday, because always something new followed (Most of it from WUWT). They are not yet at home, so the question is: What’s next?

J. Herbst says: @ January 16, 2014 at 1:15 pm
….hey are not yet at home, so the question is: What’s next?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The shower of turkey feathers from the welcoming crowds as they boo and hiss…

(Well I can dream can’t I? I did wish on Christmas that the warmists have a cold and snowy New Year and Ma Nature seems to have heard me.)

This whole “Carbonscape” thing worries me. If I make charcoal in my microwave and I have done it a few times, am I breaching his patent? If yes, how did he get a patent in the first place.

Now as I understand it, making charcoal is cheap and very simple, burn a few sticks of wood to heat wood in an oxygen free retort. Very green, they want to burn wood to make power on a massive scale. But he uses electricity, at very high cost and unknown origin, to microwave wood to make charcoal that can and is done by very much cheaper and greener processes. Plus he gets huge funding to do it.

If he wants to lock up carbon, sell his charcoal to the compost makers to add into their mixes. Sell it to farmers as a soil fixer but produce it cheaply and from certified waste product.

Seems a Willis type investigation and expose is called for here that ties all these loose ends together.

Grey Lensman says:
January 17, 2014 at 1:47 am
This whole “Carbonscape” thing worries me. If I make charcoal in my microwave and I have done it a few times, am I breaching his patent? If yes, how did he get a patent in the first place.

———–
I think there is a difference: In a normal charcoal production, you will have left over only charcoal and tar, as some of the volatilas are burned. But by bringing the heat from outside (microwaves), you can collect everthing even the volatiles, which can be used for chemisty or varous products. And you can convert any plant matter or waste into charcoal powder.

If this business is paying for itself, thats another question. Maybe it was the idea to trap CO2 as carbon powder and dig it in the soil, just another kind of CCS. Maybe the Idea is todo this in change of CO2 emission rights… But The problem is:

You have to plant trees, or you have to get lots of waste to reduce CO2 from the atmosphere.

Everywhere plants or trees are grown for constuction and furniture or for energy. There is simply not enough area for additional biomass production. And even the waste is used already to a high degree, So this is just something to replace something which is already well established.

What I (and some others) do: I build houses out of massive wood, which will last for centuries. Its a good investment, and for those who like to store CO2 (which not means that I believe much in the role of CO2), yes it’s inside the walls and roofs of the house, for a long time.