It is a truth universally acknowledged that in order to get an idea about how any country’s economy is performing, you have to ask its taxi drivers. The theory goes they are the first to feel the pinch when people are cutting back, and the first to notice when those same people have a little bit more cash in their pocket to spend. And as a breed, they are rarely shy of expressing their feelings to passengers.

Bangkok, Thailand’s capital, has its taxis like any other city, but to gauge the mood in one of the leading members of what used to be hailed as the “Tiger” economies, you have to ask the people who drive the tuk-tuks. These are small, motorised three-wheeled rickshaws which zip at often alarming speeds around the streets of what must be one of the busiest, smelliest, noisiest cities on earth.

The preferred method of attracting business is to drive up to you as you leave your hotel, and offer to take you somewhere you don’t want to go (a far-distant and minor tourist attraction, or his brother’s suit factory, for example) for much more than you would be willing to pay even if you did.

If you choose to take up the offer, you must bargain, and it is through this process that one gains an insight into how the global economic crisis is affecting this country.

Regular visitors report that first, there seem to be more tuk-tuk drivers around; second, they are more aggressive in asking for business; but third, it is easier to beat them down in price. The credit crunch, in other words, appears to be increasing the supply of drivers while reducing the demand.

Official data paints a picture of a country whose economy deteriorated last year. When the final figures are in, they are expected to show that the economy shrank 3% in 2009.

However, things may be about to look up. Thanks to a rise in government spending, tourism and an expected rise in exports (notably rice), the economy is likely to rebound by more than 3% this year, a rate that will leave many nations of the west standing. Thailand’s unemployment rate – always one of the lowest in the world – has also fallen dramatically in recent months, from 2.1% of the workforce last spring to 1.1% at the end of last year.

However, what worries economists is a possible deterioration in the political situation. The country – which likes to portray itself as “The Land of Smiles” – has witnessed huge demonstrations in recent years by supporters and opponents of Thaksin Shinawatra – a former prime minister who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 after being accused of corruption and abuse of power.

Those demonstrations didn’t stop the tourists coming in – Russians are notable new arrivals in recent years – but any further, or more violent, outbursts might have a more severe impact.

So the tuk-tuk drivers along with the rest of the nation nervously scour the papers for any sign of a return to the turbulent times. However, ever resourceful, if the demonstrations began again, they would no doubt be prepared to whisk you there to witness any violence in person. If, that is, you can agree on the price first.