10 predictions for 2012 in tech: the cloud, social, web ads

The new year is fast approaching, and Seattle investment bank Cascadia Capital is predicting that 2012 will be another strong year in tech.

In 2011, we saw big mergers and acquisitions, huge growth in mobile and a lively startup sector. For 2012, Cascadia released 10 predictions (4 pages, PDF file), offering an outlook similar to 2011 and predicting that several tech sectors will see interest from venture capitalists and larger corporations through mergers and acquisitions.

“Despite disarray in the macro economy, there are many technology sectors positioned to thrive over the next year,” said Michael Orbach, managing director and head of Cascadia Capital’s information technology practice. “We expect deal flow in the technology sector to continue, but at a slower rate than 2011.”

1. The web experience: Cascadia believes this potential $8 billion market, which has been led by the growth in online shopping, will continue. Speech recognition technology, thanks to the popularity of Apple’s Siri, will also gain more attention.

2. Cloud computing and data center automation: 2011 was the year of the cloud, and companies will now look to reduce the huge cost of running data centers with data center automation solutions.

3. Continued growth in the cloud: Enterprise will want affordable cloud solutions. Cascadia predicts that small and medium-sized businesses will be the biggest market.

4. Software development becomes agile: The growth of mobile apps has shown that new applications can hit the market in mere days after development. Cascadia thinks large software companies will recognize the growing importance of tablets and smartphones and acquisitions may follow.

5. Convergence of SoLoMo: Social, local and mobile have all seen growing interest with the growth of services like Foursquare. Mobile commerce could be a $100 billion industry in a couple years, and Cascadia believes this will lead to M&A activity.

6. Online video advertising: This segment will continue to grow, and advertisers will continue to shift away from print and television. By 2015, online video advertising spending could reach $7.1 billion.

7. Video content from broadcast to broadband: More and more people will watch video online, and this will result in more M&A activity for companies that make technology to digitize, store and distribute video.

8. Brick-and-mortar acquires e-retailers: Most brick-and-mortar stores have an online storefront, but consumers are buying more from e-retailers. Cascadia thinks acquisitions could be forthcoming from companies looking to maintain their strong positions in the market, like Home Depot, Lowe’s or Bed Bath and Beyond.

9. Social voice gets louder: Hundreds of millions of people are now on social media sites, but advertisers will continue to want more detail about the users of social media. Companies offering social analytics will see interest from investors.

10. Continued consolidation in online advertising: Ad networks of Google, Yahoo and Microsoft dominate the online advertising space. The space could become a $77 billion industry by 2016, and Cascadia believes these companies could shut out competitors.

Last week, All Things D attended a yearly conference in New York hosted by Strategic News Service CEO Mark Anderson with his 10 predictions for 2012. Among them: the cloud appeals more to consumers, speech recognition comes of age, the battle over intellectual property grows and Amazon will be “the one company that can indeed have it all.”