This WHITE PAPER cum expose’ has been in the making for two decades. Its genesis going back to the mid-1990s (Read End Note # 9 for details). It’s only been, however, during the past 12 months, the manufactured housing ‘tipping point’ between manufactured housing being ‘affordable’ & ‘no longer affordable’, has become obvious to those who’re watching. And frankly, a real threat to not only the industry’s gradually recovering new home shipment volume, but the future of the manufactured housing industry and its’ land-lease communities going forward. So, as you read now…

So, why is this even a question in today’s economic, business, and consumer climate?

To well answer that timely, telling, and challenging question, begin with a look at the larger U.S. housing picture, ‘compared with’ what we’re told in a column featured in the last surviving, advertising-supported, manufactured housing trade periodical.

“More than one in every three people in the U.S. struggles with the high cost of housing – the highest level ever recorded, according to the State of the Nation’s Housing, from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University report for 2016. The number of people living in households that pay more than 50 percent of their income for housing has grown to 114 million, according to the study.”

Lessons to be learned? Keep manufactured home monthly ‘PITI mortgage payment & site rent’ below the debilitating 50% threshold! Examples to follow will do so, using the 30% Housing Expense Factor or HEF. But remember this, ‘household expenses’ (e.g. water, sewer, heating, electricity), while they should be included within said 30% & 50% housing expense thresholds, are not generally factored into calculating PITI mortgage payments throughout the manufactured housing industry, and within land-lease communities! Consequence? By the time all household bills (mortgage, rent, & household expenses) are paid each month, households pay well beyond the 30% HEF, oft approaching that debilitating 50% threshold!

Back to our ‘housing picture’, with this manufactured housing and land-lease community related view, quoted from The Journal, page # 14, for October 2016:

“We believe the approximate national average for lot (site) rents in the U.S. is around $275 per month. That’s a ridiculously low number in a U.S. housing market that offers a median single-family option at $170,100 and an average three-bedroom apartment rent of $1,290 per month. We believe lot (site) rents could double and still remain highly affordable.” P.14. Quoted from Frank Rolfe’s COMMUNITY CONSULTANT column. (Emphasis added. GFA) Source of data provided in this paragraph? None provided by the columnist.

Well, let’s see how this view pencils out, using the following data reference points:

National Average Affordable Housing Market Rent = $849/unit*3

National ‘Area Median Income’ or AMI*2 = $52,000+/-*4

Land-lease Community site rent now = $275/month*5

Land-lease Community site rent doubled = $550/month*6

Standard ‘Housing Expense Factor’ or HEF = 30 percent*7

Chattel Capital Mortgage Terms = 9.5% @ 20 years

As we work through the following examples, keep in mind National Average Affordable Housing Market Rent is pegged at $849/unit – whether it be for a conventional garden style apartment unit, or manufactured home on a rental homesite in a land-lease community. In examples to follow, combined ‘home payment (i.e. PITI) and site rent below $849/unit, while certainly ‘affordable’, represents less ‘buying power’ or ‘less home & value’; than when combined PITI & site rent payment are above $859/unit, representing more buying power…

In the first instance, Using $52,000 AMI, a 30% HEF, and ‘low’ site rent of $275/month (See end note # 5), that leaves $1,025 to buy a new manufactured home (Compared to the present day $849/unit average), for around $122,181/month (figuring back in, a 10% down payment). However, ‘doubling’ the site rent to $550/month (See end note # 6), leaves only $750/month to buy a new manufactured home for around $89,400 (figuring back in, a 10% down payment). Clearly, a smaller ‘affordable housing market payment’ capability’ (i.e. PITI & rent), a.k.a. less ‘buying power’; ‘less home’; and, over time possibly, fewer new manufactured housing shipments nationwide.

In the next instance, using a more reasonable $36,000 AMI (Characteristic of the ‘newly wed & nearly dead’ traditional manufactured housing dual market), a 30% HEF, and again, ‘low’ site rent of $275/month, leaves $625/month to buy a new manufactured home (Again, compared to present day $849/unit average), for around $74,500 (figuring back in, a 10% down payment). However, ‘doubling’ the site rent to $550/month, leaves only $350/month to buy a new manufactured home for around $41,720. Here it is even clearer, how low to middle income individuals and households, with an AMI anywhere near $36,000, when faced with escalating rental homesite rents (i.e. ‘doubling’), as proposed in the reference cited in end notes # 5, will be faced with attempting to purchase a new manufactured home, using a monthly combined ‘PITI & rent’ payment well less than the present day National Average Affordable Housing Market Rent rate of $849.00/unit. In fact, it likely takes the prospective homebuyer/site lessee completely out of the new home market, able only to purchase – or rent, maybe, a resale unit in a land-lease community. Hence the result of ‘doubling’ site rent rates.*9

Point to all this? It’s this industry observer’s earnest and considered opinion:

The manufactured housing industry in general, & the land-lease community realty asset class in particular, are already at the ‘tipping point’ between continuance of a 70 year reputation as this nation’s primary source of non-subsidized, affordable housing and lifestyle; but once again (Recalling ‘the turn of the century & departure of easy access to chattel capital) endangering the industry’s gradual return to new home shipment prosperity!

For example:

1998 = 372,843 New HUD-Code homes shipped nationwide!

2000 = 250,550 Shipment slide & 16 year paradigm shift began…

2009 = 49,789 Community Series Homes debuted, & 25% of new home shipments went directly into (then) manufactured home communities nationwide by year end.

9. There’s yet another ‘take’ on the matter of escalating rental homesite rents. Simply put: Until the REIT wave of 1994-95, (then) MHCommunity owners/operators oft used a 3:1 Ratio to estimate appropriate rental homesite rates in various local housing markets, e.g. Conventional 3BR2B apartment rent = $900/month; then 1/3 of that = $300/month, as starting point for one’s homesite rent. Well, as fledgling REITs struggled to satisfy Wall Street analysts lust for increasing dividends month after month after month (by trimming operating expenses, etc.), they eventually started raising rental homesite rates in a near flagrant fashion. To the point that, today, some – but – not – all large property portfolio firms appear to default to a 2:1 ratio, e.g. Apartments rate @ $900/month? Then land-lease community site rent @ $450/month. And all this would be understandable, and likely acceptable, except for one recent development. Specialty ‘market rent surveys’ describe SMSA (Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) local housing market rents characteristic generally of ‘institutional investment grade’ land-lease communities (i.e. 200+ rental homesites), not including all the such properties located in and around the subject city. Result? Higher published ‘market rental homesite rates’ than would be the case if/when all LLCommunities were polled and reported. Negative consequence? Artificially high site rental rates published for various SMSA cities, provide ‘cover’ for all property owners to likewise raise their rents to match large property portfolio owners/operators. Remedy? Clearly label rental market surveys as being focused on ‘institutional investment grade LLCommunities’ only.

INTRODUCTION: Year 2017 is when the Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance®, or COBA7®, grows into the expanded role of national advocate devoted to the research, communication, networking & deal-making, training/certification, and historian needs of land-lease community owners/operators nationwide and in Canada!

The year begins with publication of a WHITE PAPER exposing the ‘tipping point’ manufactured housing & land-lease communities approach, at their peril, between supplying ‘affordable & non-affordable’ housing to prospective homebuyers and present day homeowner/site lessees. No one else is willing to ‘break this story’ to you, so read!

In January, the 28th annual ALLEN REPORT, a.k.a. ‘Who’s Who Among Land-lease Community Portfolio Owners/operators Throughout North America!’ will be distributed to Option II & III affiliates of COBA7® via the January issue of the Allen Letter professional journal. Not yet an affiliate? Phone (317) 346-7156. This is the gold standard among statistical reports purporting to describe LLCommunities nationwide.

On 17 January 2017, COBA7® hosts the one day MHM® class, as well as two seminars tailored for HUD-Code home manufacturers, and LLCommunity owners desiring to learn more about lease-option methodology. Read Part I following here…

During Spring 2017, plan to participate in the 2nd annual Two Days of Plant Tours & Home Sales Seminars, at the RV/MH Hall of Fame in Elkhart, IN. Designed for LLCommunity owners/operators desiring to sell and seller-finance new HUD-Code homes on-site in their properties. More to follow during the months ahead.

And there’s more, much more, but we’ll stop the INTRODUCTION here, for now…

I.

PRESS RELEASE * PRESS RELEASE * PRESS RELEASE

Dated 20 November 2016

COBA7® Launches Four Major Initiatives to Warn & Help MHBusiness in Year 2017!

Yes, that’s the dire message this December expose’, a White Paper, will be communicating to the manufactured housing industry and land-lease community real estate asset class nationwide, by way of its’ national advocacy entities, trade press, and otherwise. A Press Release will also be sent to the administrator of HUD’s manufactured housing program.

For a FREE reprint copy of this White Paper, after 1 December, simply phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764 and request it!

SECOND = latter three parts of the COBA7®s four part MHInitiative for year 2017.

The threefold Press Release message will see its’ first exposure as part of the pre-Louisville MHShow on 17 January 2017, at the Crown Plaza Hotel near the Kentucky Fairgrounds in Louisville. Here’s what’s planned to date:

Manufactured Housing Manager®, or MHM®, one day professional property management training and certification class, beginning at 8AM & ending at 4PM. No tests. Taught by Katie Hauck, MHM® & Kathy Taylor, MHM®. More than 1,000 MHM®s now own/operate LLCommunities throughout the U.S. & Canada. Only $250/MHM® candidate.

Morning of 17 January. Special three hour seminar program for HUD-Code home manufacturers to include: ‘How to ID land-lease communities among all four major property segmentations’, ‘How to Sell New Homes to LLCommunity Owners/operators’, & open discussion of the ‘tipping point’ warning contained in the Press Release. Only $94.95/registrant. Led by George Allen, CPM®, MHM®

Afternoon of 17 January. Special three hour seminar program for land-lease community owners/operators desiring to learn lease-option methodology as a means of seller-financing new HUD-Code home transactions on-site in their properties. Only $94.95/registrant. Taught by Spencer Roane, MHM®

For information, and to register, for one or more of these three events on 17 January, simply phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764.

Finally, it is hoped the Press Release threefold message will be picked up and scheduled, by meeting planners selecting programs for the annual MHCongress in Las Vegas, 26th International Networking Roundtable, and 7th annual SECO Summit in the South – the manufactured housing industry and LLCommunity asset class four major national/regional trade shows.

This MHInitiative is planned for the 17th of January, to stimulate more participation in the Louisville MHShow that begins, in the same location, on the 18th of January 2017.

Part I. ‘For land-lease community owners by land-lease community owners!’ is the most apt description of the annual SECO Summit in the South manufactured housing trade show. It’s over for this year, but it sure does leave a legacy of success for next year!

Part II. Challenge Coins. Taking a chapter out of the playbook of professional athletes, elite military units, charismatic business firms, and fraternity/sorority groups, design, order & distribute Challenge Coins to your peers, just like COBA7® affiliates.

Part III. Next Big Events for the MHIndustry. 17 January, day before Louisville MHShow begins, participate in the day long MHM® certification class, two hour AM seminar for HUD-Code home manufacturers, or two hour PM seminar regarding lease-option methodology. Then ‘stay over’& attend the Louisville MHShow all day 18, 19, 20

Part IV. Now is the Time to Come Together in Unity! If not, you’ll have only yourself to blame, a year or two from now, when manufactured housing industry shipments return to or below the 2009 level of 49,789 new HUD-Code homes shipped, and LLCommunities will be begging for resale homes to install on vacant rental homesites. The matter soon to be faced the manufactured housing industry & LLCommunities is simply that serious!

One of four HUD-Code housing manufacturers exhibiting Community Series Homes at the Atlanta, GA., event, 25 – 27 October, sold 100 ‘floors’ at the venue, and has leads yet to pursue! So, if you’re reading this blog, and were not at this stellar event, but want to be on the ‘invite list’ for 2017, reach out to Genevieve Katelle via (770) 871-6889, or Genevieve@secoconference.com

And the attendee who opined, ‘SECO Summit in the South is the new Tunica MHShow’, explained: “…everyone is bored with the same old Louisville, Tunica & Vegas shows, where SECO is friendly and unique!” Nuff said.

II.

COBA7® Challenge Coin to be Distributed January 2017!

Have you seen the final design? Well, it’s an attachment to the BEBA (Blast Email Blog Alert) announcing this week’s blog posting. Take a look! It’s daring and colorful!

Why a Challenge Coin? Well, as ‘splained’ in an earlier blog posting at this website, Challenge Coins have been around since WWI, primarily as a pocket or purse means of identifying oneself with a particular (military) unit, or (business) firm, even (fraternity or social) group. Are you proud to identify yourself with the manufactured housing industry and or land-lease community income-producing property type? I am. Hence the Challenge Coin, as a new means of sharing that enthusiasm! We certainly need it!

There’s even an informal protocol at social and business events, involving one person challenging another to produce their unique Challenge Coin. If challenged individual doesn’t, but should have, a Challenge Coin in their possession, they become the host, paying for a round of drinks and or meal. But if they do produce their Challenge Coin, the challenger becomes the host! Not suggesting we go that distance, in the MHIndustry & LLCommunity ‘family’, but WE sure could use this sort of personal and corporate motivation and camaraderie, to show enthusiasm for what we all do for a living – providing attractive, quality, energy efficient, affordable housing for our nation’s citizenry!

So, will you or your firm now consider designing a Challenge Coin that improves the ‘attitude altitude’ in and around your workplace? At least consider the possibility. And when you do, remember, one source of Challenge Coins is Spotlight-Strategies via (317)738-3434. Ask for James or Kathleen.

COBA7® affiliates will receive their Challenge Coins during 2017, when they renew their affiliation with alliance. Some will receive it as a lagniappe in their January 2017 issue of the Allen Letter professional journal. That’s also the issue containing the 28th annual ALLEN REPORT, a.k.a. ‘Who’s Who Among LLCommunity Portfolio Owners/operators Throughout North America!’ You don’t want to miss receiving any of these gems in January, so make sure your Option I, II, or III affiliation is current!

IMPORTANT NOTE: If you own and or fee manage five or more LLCommunities, and or 500+ rental homesites, and haven’t completed an ALLEN REPORT questionnaire, facilitating your firm’s inclusion in this year’s (2017) MHIndustry & LLCommunity asset class’ statistical reference compendium, phone (317) 346-7156 to provide portfolio details via telephone! This document is how ‘everyone’ ascertains whether a property portfolio owner/operators is a bona fide ‘player’ in the MHIndustry & LLCommunity realty asset class! Don’t be left out, phone today!

III.

Next Big Events for the MHIndustry & LLCommunities?

17 January 2017.

First told you about this special day, two blog postings past. And as we get closer to the date, plans are being firmed-up. Which one or two, of the three pithy HOW TO choices will you attend?

• Manufactured Housing Manager® professional PM training & certification one day class, 8AM-4PM. Only $250.00/MHM candidate. Taught by Katie Hauck, MHM® & Kathy Taylor, MHM®. So, join more than 1,000 MHM®s already owning and managing land-lease communities nationwide and throughout Canada! For a descriptive brochure and or to sign-up, phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764 now! Why the rush? Classes almost always max out, so don’t be left out! Location to be announced.

• For HUD-Code home manufacturers: ‘HOW TO Identify Land-lease Communities in all three categories (by portfolio & standalone size), and Sell New HUD-Code Homes to Them for Selling & Seller-financing On-site! This 10AM-Noon session, on the 17th, will be for the first two dozen manufacturers to register; already have ten registered! Here too, phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE cited in the previous paragraph, for information and to register. Cost? Only $95.00/registrant, to cover meeting room expense and cost of handout material. Location to be announced – but near entrance to KY fairgrounds.

• Lease-option Methodology. This type seller-financing of new HUD-Code home sales transactions on-site is literally ‘sweeping the nation’. Learn from Mr. L-O himself, Spencer Roane, MHM®, owner of Pentagon Properties, with land-lease communities in GA & TX. Mr. Roane has hundreds of lease-option transactions in effect at his properties, and will share this specialized knowledge with two dozen LLCommunity owners/operators, from 1-3PM or longer, the afternoon of 17 January. Location to be announced – but near entrance to KY fairgrounds.

18-20 January 2017

Again, arrive a day early and stay overnight, to attend the Louisville MHShow at the KY state fairgrounds. Come to inspect and buy new Community Series Homes on display indoors, shop the dozens of vendors exhibiting there, and sit in whatever seminars address your specific and general education needs.

For more information about seminars and panels planned for 18-20 January, go to www..thelouisvilleshow.

IV.

Now is the Time To Come Together in Unity!

Last week, an op/ed piece titled, ‘Deja-vu 1974-76 (as in, ‘We’ve seen it all before!’), but now, in 2017?’, painted a dismal word picture of what appears to be occurring relative to federal regulatory enforcement of ‘below the frost line in freezing climates’ installations of new HUD-Code homes within land-lease communities – likely nationwide!

What follows here first, is a description of yet another ‘Three Strikes & You’re Out!’ scenario that could lead – in the short term, to less affordable housing available from the manufactured housing industry; and in the longer term, the demise of said industry and its’ real estate investment component, land-lease communities! But, another ‘Three Strikes & You’re Out’ scenario? YES – and it’s described in the November 2017 issue of the Allen Letter professional journal, re: rising MH prices & escalating site rent!

What follows here, is a timely and passionate recommendation as how to combat impending regulatory overreach into the manufactured housing industry and among land-lease communities nationwide.

This version of the ‘Three Strikes & You’re Out!’ scenario involves…

1. Recent overt attempt to discredit frost free foundation designs approved by HUD soon after installation & Dispute Resolution legislation was passed in year 2007. Read the 38 page ‘Manufactured Home Foundations in Freezing Climates’ prepared by SEBA Professional Services at the behest of HUD. When you do, note the absence of ‘date’ and ‘specific authorship attribution’, suggesting there’s more here than meets the eye! Like; is this the prejudiced opinion of one engineer, supplanting the expertise of many other engineers? Sure reads that way!

2. HUD’s manufactured housing program, in this industry observer & reporter’s opinion, appears to be laying groundwork to oversee new manufactured housing installations in land-lease communities nationwide, whether states are compliant or not, with aforementioned federal installation regulations. As pointed out in last week’s blog posting here, if this occurs, it’ll be déjà vu 1974-76 all over again!

3. Probable consequences of ‘strikes one & two’ preceding? First consequence. Many if not most small to mid-sized land-lease communities cannot afford $5,000+/- per rental homesite, HUD-mandated retrofits of perfectly good, existing concrete foundations (i.e. piers & ribbons) in these properties – simply because they don’t extend below the frost line; with new ones that do! Result? Stop selling HUD-Code’s new ‘affordable homes’ into land-lease communities! Second consequence. Property owners reduce the volume of new Community Series Homes bought and sited in their properties (This was 40+/- percent of all shipments during 2015, or 28,200 new homes!), the shipment volume of new HUD-Code homes once again plummets, something this industry can ill afford during this present day ‘recovering period’, i.e. Year 2015 = 70,544 new homes shipped; Year 2016 YTD = more than 50,000 through August 2016, likely 80,000+ by year end! Why does HUD want to do this to the MHIndustry & LLCommunity real estate asset class? A question that deserves an honest answer!

(And YOU should KNOW THIS, before we go any further. The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform, or MHARR, has already gone on the offensive where this critical matter is concerned! The Manufactured Housing Institute? As a direct, dues-paying member of MHI, I’ve heard nary a word this week – on this critical matter, even as the institute’s National Communities Council convened their annual Leadership Forum in downtown Chicago.)

NOW, for a timely and passionate call for the MHIndustry & LLCommunity asset class to ‘come together’ in a manner best described by the Five Ws of problem-solving:

WHY? Together plan how to effectively oppose impending regulatory overreach into the manufactured housing industry and land-lease community asset class by HUD!

WHO to organize and ‘sound the call’ for industry unity & action? For starters, the two national advocates for manufactured housing: MHARR & MHI! This call for industry unity & action now, in this industry observer’s opinion (Buttressed by realities of being an MHI member; co-founder of its’ NCC division; and, 35 year owner/operator of land-lease communities throughout the Midwest), needs to come from MHARR & MHI ‘together’ & now!. WHEN? This week, 7-11 November 2016 is not too soon! But will it happen? Let’s watch and see!

And know, the Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance® (‘COBA7®’), representing land-lease community owners/operators, and other post-production businesses nationwide, stands ready to support this national call for industry unity & action NOW, as well!

WHAT to do? Immediately form a national, across-the-board representative working group, comprised of businessmen and women from all segments of the industry, whether members and affiliates of MHARR, MHI, or COBA7®, or not, but willing to pay their own way to participate! Particularly include HUD-Code home manufacturers and land-lease community owners, large and small!. WHERE? Meet, perhaps in the Midwest; either Chicago, Indianapolis, or Louisville areas, for a day (or two) long ‘brainstorming session’, deciding how to best confront and ameliorate (‘make more tolerable’) this very present threat to the health, even future of HUD-Code manufactured housing.

Now, if you’re reading this blog posting, and have ‘skin in the game’, so to speak, of manufactured housing and or land-lease community ownership, and agree Unity & Action is called for NOW, reach out to all three national entities to make your view(s) known, especially your willingness to be counted among those wanting to Save Our Industry!

As is oft said; If you don’t take steps to ‘stand & be counted’ among your peers NOW, in this worthy manner, ‘You’re not part of the solution, just one more part of the problem!’

And frankly, your peers have already started taking action, quoting this response to last week’s blog posting when this heady topic first emerged:

“George, I am in agreement with you 100% the (MH) industry must work together to (bring) HUD back to the reality that individual states can have their own installation programs, approved by HUD and state statute. There is nothing to fix (in our state), and yet I feel our engineered designs, with NO problems, are being threatened!”

V.

Official MH Shipments for September 2017

7,322 new HUD Code homes shipped during September 2017, that’s DOWN from 7,363 during August 2017! No one else is telling you that; everyone else compares September 2017 with September 2016.

Cumulative MH shipment total YTD, through September 2017 = 59,889 new homes!

Again, to affiliate with COBA7® & receive either or both these news-laden trade publications, phone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633.4764.

WARNING. Be careful whose MHIndustry statistics you read and believe! All the above data is based on that provided, for a fee, by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety, or IBTS, and then distributed, unadulterated, by HUD, MHARR, and COBA7®.