Prospects for the global economy
are slowly improving again, but growth is expected to be weak, especially in
Europe, and unemployment in many advanced economies will stay high, according to
the IMF’s latest forecast. The Fund says although action by policymakers in
Europe and elsewhere has helped to reduce vulnerabilities, risks of a renewed
upsurge of the crisis in Europe continue to loom large, along with geopolitical
uncertainties affecting the oil market.

The IMF urges the European Central
Bank to cut interest rates further, while continuing to use so called
"unconventional policies" to boost growth. The Fund says in 2012 Irish GDP
should grow by 0.5%, followed by growth of 2% in 2013

Real GDP growth should pick up gradually during
2012-13 from a trough seen in the first quarter of 2012, with signs of
improvement in the United States, and the emerging economies remaining
supportive. The IMF raised its projection for the United States to 2.1% this
year and 2.4% next year from 1.7% in 2011. It has also slightly improved its
forecast for the Eurozone compared with January. But it still projects a mild
contraction in the Eurozone, where concerns about high sovereign debt and fiscal
consolidation have taken a toll, although Germany and France might see positive
growth.

Japan, bouncing back from last year’s destructive
earthquake and tsunami, will see a recovery of 2%.

Overall, global growth is projected to drop from
close to 4% in 2011 to about 3½% this year, picking up to 4.1% next year, the
IMF said in its April 2012
World Economic Outlook, released Tuesday ahead of the
Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington.

Rollercoaster ride

“For the past six months we’ve been on a
rollercoaster ride,” said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. “Our baseline
is that growth is going to be slow in advanced economies; sustained, but not
great, in emerging market and developing economies. But the risk of things
turning bad again in Europe is high.”

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said in a speech at a Washington think-tank last week that recent European action had helped improve the
economic climate, but prospects were still fragile.

The IMF is pressing for additional resources to
enable it to contain economic contagion in the event of a new crisis. Japan has pledged an additional $60 billion to the Fund.

Need for continued policy measures

“The building of the firewalls, when it is
completed, will represent major progress,” Blanchard said in a foreword to the
report. But he warned that the firewalls would not, by themselves, solve the
difficult, fiscal, competitive, and growth issues faced by some struggling
economies.

The report said that governments should
strengthen policies to solidify the weak recovery and contain potential risks
that can weigh on consumer and investor confidence.

Advanced economies should implement medium-term
budgetary savings, but not in a way that could undermine the recovery. In
developing countries and emerging markets, policies should be geared toward
ensuring a soft landing for economies that have seen sustained, very strong
credit growth.

Outlook by region

The report highlighted the following regional
prospects:

North America.
U.S. economic growth is projected at 2.1% in 2012 and 2½% next year,
reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation and continued weakness in housing
prices. In Canada, growth will moderate slightly to close to 2%.

Asia.
Weaker external demand has dimmed the outlook for Asia. But resilient
domestic demand in China, limited financial spillovers, room for policy
easing, and the capacity of Asian banks to step in as European banks
deleverage suggest that the soft landing under way is likely to continue.
Overall, growth in Asia will average 6.0%, with China slowing to 8.2% and
India to 6.9%.

Europe.
Real GDP in the Eurozone is projected to contract in the first half of 2012
but then start recovering, except in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal
where recovery will only begin in 2013. Many advanced economies outside the
Eurozone avoided large precrisis imbalances, which helped cushion the
spillovers from the Eurozone. But in the United Kingdom, whose financial
sector was hit hard by the global crisis, growth will be weak in early 2012.
Growth in emerging Europe is projected to slow sharply to 1.9% this year,
reflecting its strong economic and financial linkages with the Eurozone.
Europe as a whole will see projected growth of 0.2% in 2012 and 1.4% next
year.

Russia and Commonwealth of
Independent States. Weaker exports to Europe
and policy tightening in some economies will moderate growth this year, even
though commodity prices will remain high. Overall growth will fall to 4.2%.

Latin America and the
Caribbean. Growth is projected to moderate to
3¾ this year before recovering above 4% in 2013. Overheating risks have
receded but could reemerge if capital flows rev up again, putting exchange
rates under pressure. Overall, the report says the outlook for the region is
promising.

Middle East and North Africa.
Growth in the region’s oil importers will be constrained by strong oil
prices, anemic tourism associated with the social unrest in the region, and
lower trade and remittance flows reflecting the ongoing problems in Europe.
Among oil exporters, negative developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran
are projected to be offset by increased oil production in Iraq and Saudi
Arabia and a bounce back in Libya. Overall growth for the region is forecast
at 4.2% in 2012, with oil producers buoyed by continued high oil prices, but
inflation will average 9.5%.

Sub-Saharan Africa.
The pace of growth is projected to pick up in 2012 to 5.4%, with the region
relatively less exposed to the global slowdown but not immune to spillovers
from the Eurozone’s problems. South Africa, which has stronger trade and
financial ties with slowing Europe, is struggling with subpar growth and
high unemployment.

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