What if the Warriors had drafted Greg Monroe and avoided David Lee last summer?

Since I’m so used to enraging certain portions of Warriors fandom so reguarly, but especially during the July movement period…

And since there probably will be no July trade/free-agency period this year due to the lock-out…

(* Therefore all of the following talk about salary-cap maintenance is potentially out of date, but disucssed in relation to the previous rules. Generally speaking, it is presumed that having less money committed is better than having more committed, whatever the number or rules are.)

I’m looking back to last off-season and wondering about two moves made under old ownership, but definitely with the hold-over general manager’s fingerprints all over them:

* Drafting Ekpe Udoh with the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, and bypassing Greg Monroe (who went 7th to Detroit);

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* And acquiring David Lee in a sign-and-trade deal, handing Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf and Kelenna Azubuike to the Knicks and giving Lee a six-year, $80M deal.

I certainly have let my feelings be known on those two moves from the instant they were made last summer, so nobody will be surprised that I still believe they were unwise.

But it’s the look back from a longer view that always is the most important.

How do the Udoh/Lee moves look now, one year later, as the Warriors try to piece together a credible operation and roster heading into the 2011-2012 season, if there is a 2011-’12 season?

-I should immediately add right here that Riley made at least one certifiably strong decision–to sign SF Dorell Wright to a very affordable three-year deal.

-Wright wasn’t as incredible as some GSW partisans blared all season–or else the Warriors wouldn’t be searching for a hardier SF these days–but he was a clear upgrade over what the Warriors had and he is on a career upswing, which is always good.

Let’s just run over a comparison of what the Warriors look like now, and what they might’ve looked like with two different decisions by Riley (when Chris Cohan was still the owner and Robert Rowell was still the team president and Don Nelson was still the coach)….

* Udoh is not a bad young PF at all.

He’s by far the Warriors’ best defensive player and once he got healthy, the Warriors always seemed to play better when he was on the floor (though Keith Smart didn’t always seem to realize this).

I like Udoh as a cog in the building of a more defensive-minded team. I’m not saying that I don’t.

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But Udoh was an old draftee and he’s 24 now. He’s about what he’s going to be as an NBA player. Good defense, very little scoring punch, not much on the rebounding, either.

Udoh might pick up the pace some on offense, but there’s really not much to work with there, and it’s not like he’s so young that you can project a jump-shot or post game fashioned out of the raw material.

Monroe, on the other hand, is two inches taller, three years younger (he just turned 21 last month), and already has shown that he can score and rebound in the NBA.

Once he got regular time in Detroit (on a bad team, granted), Monroe averaged just under 13 points and 10 rebounds and, according to the peripheral stats, wasn’t a defensive laggard at all.

Just to compare: As a 20-year-old rookie, Monroe had a 18.0 PER.

As a 23-year-old rookie, Udoh had a 9.7 PER.

That is a rather large production/efficiency gap and their corresponding ages tell us that it probably will only get larger.

Plus, Monroe might not be a full-time NBA center, but at 6-11 and with those skills, he can fake it at C, especially on offense, in a way that Udoh just can’t.

Udoh can play some defense at C–but like Monroe, probably not against the bigger Cs–but he’s not a true C. His position is PF, and he won’t be a scorer at either position.

Monroe is a scorer and rebounder at either spot, and that’s valuable stuff in the NBA.

* And Lee isn’t a terrible PF, though I’ve taken my share of swipes at him.

He does rebound. He passes it well for a big man. Sometimes hits that 15-footer. He’s a very nice person.

But the Warriors owe him a little over $69M over the next five seasons, and despite their protestations, this is a contract that weighs them down in all future endeavors.

Lee fans get mad at me for a lot of things, where they’re probably right is that I often neglect to say that Andris Biedrins’ remaining $27M over the next three years is a worse burden.

But Biedrins is a center, who has been known to play some defense. And he’s still only 25.

I sometimes forget, but we’re always reminded that young centers have value in this league, even when they’ve stunk and been hurt for a few years.

Lee is 28. He’s not a center. And though his supporters do not like this subject, it’s a fact that he’s a poor defensive player.

He’s also not the easiest guy to partner with on the low post–the other big man MUST play great defense, he’ll never get defensive help from Lee, and he has to get out of Lee’s way when Lee wants that rebound.

Not easy to find that good partner.

Lee’s supporters say he was pulled down when he had to play next to Biedrins. I say Biedrins suffered almost as much or more in that bad partnership.

If the Warriors hadn’t acquired him, instead of Lee’s $11.61M salary slot for the coming seaosn, they’d theoretically still have Randolph ($2.91M for next season) and Turiaf ($4.36M) under contract, and Azubuike’s deal just expired.

So right there: Un-doing the Lee deal would slice $4.34M from the Warriors’ 2011-’12 payroll.

What happens if you slice that from the payroll? Under the old cap calculations, the Warriors would drop almost $12M under the salary-cap line of $58M…

And starting a salary at $12M or so? That would’ve been enough to lure a big-time free agent or force a team to do a sign-and-trade if they feared you could do the out-right signing.

(As Cleveland and Toronto feared when Miami was about to land LeBron James and Chris Bosh last July. Those ended up as S & T’s)

In a scenario where the Warriors want to get as far under the cap-line as possible, they could also renounce restricted F/A Reggie Williams, which would get them another $1M or so under the line.

As it is, with Lee on board and Williams given a qualifying offer, the Warriors are committed to about $51M (if you count their cap-hold for Klay Thompson) in salaries for next season, and that’s only $7M under the old cap line.

Also, without that Lee deal, the Warriors would’ve had Turiaf’s one-year contract to offer in potential sign-and-trade situations… AND they also would still have Randolph, who I know is hated by much of the GSW populace, but still retains some value. (Cue the shouting at me.)

Would they have won fewer than 36 games without Lee and with Randolph or whoever else manning the PF spot?

Almost certainly. I agree, the GSWs were a (slightly) better team with a veteran like Lee in there. But still very much a non-playoff team.

The old adage is correct here: It’s usually better in the NBA to win in the 20s (without Lee) and get better shots in the lottery, than to win in the high-30s (with Lee and a stuck cap situation) and draft at the back of the lottery every year.

Another point: Is David Lee the starting PF on a team that will ever challenge for a conference championship? Probably not, and yet he’s signed at large money for five more years.

The Warriors by signing Lee basically said he’s their PF through 2015-’16, so they’re conceding (though Riley and Rowell didn’t know it) that they probably won’t contend for a title in those years.

Lee’s a stuck-at-36-wins kind of player, especially when you pay him $13.3M a year.

That’s where the Warriors are with Lee, and with Udoh, who wasn’t a very high-ceiling guy from the moment they drafted him.

It’s not worth close to his $13.3M per-year average to have Lee on this team–when the Warriors are paying him all that money and STILL desperate for a big man who can score on the block and play defense.

And it would’ve been more valuable for the Warriors to draft a younger, higher-ceiling guy like Monroe, instead of using the 6th pick overall (their highest since drafting Dunleavy 3rd in2002) on a 23-year-old with marginal offensive and rebounding skills.

***** With Lee/Udoh in 2010-2011/Rotation:

C-Biedrins/Udoh, Gadzuric (partial season);

F-Lee, DWright, Radmanovic, Amundson;

G-Ellis, Curry, Law.

-Won 36 games;

-Still were a bad rebounding team;

-Still were a terrible defensive team;

-Major long-term salary commitments, including not enough room–pending a new CBA, which promises only to make the situation worse–to offer enough to lure a big-time big man in free agency;

**** With Monroe and Randolph (and no Lee or Udoh)/
Hypothetical 2010-’11 rotation:

C-Biedrins, Turiaf, Gadzuric;

F-Monroe, DWright, Randolph, Radmanovic, Amundson, Williams;

G-Ellis, Curry, Law.

-Hypothetically would’ve won fewer than 36, which means possibly a better lottery position.

The Clippers had four fewer wins than the Warriors and were three slots higher in the lottery odds, and they ended up with the No. 1 overall pick, but that went to Cleveland because the LACs had traded the pick.

-Possibly a slightly worse rebounding team (without Lee), but possibly not (since Monroe is a good rebounder);

-Definitely a team with young mid-post scorer in Monroe, with room to grow;

-Probably still hungry for a low-post defensive presence;

-Still have Randolph and Turiaf, though;

-And have $4.34M more room under the cap for free-agent or sign-and-trade excursions, with Monroe as an easier big man to pair with than Lee is.

With Monroe on board, you don’t necessarily have to find a big scorer at C/PF. You just need a guy who can hustle and bang–and it’s the big low-post scorers who cost the huge money.

With $12M to spend right away–hypothetically, in a new CBA who knows?–the Warriors could’ve seeen if Tyson Chandler wanted a three- or four-year deal, or tried to pry the Clippers’ DeAndre Jordan as a restricted F/A (for less than $12M to begin the deal, but for more than $7M).

With $7M to spend right away, that’s much tougher to do.

*** You tell me what scenario is the better one for the long-term. It’s all hypothetical now, but it was fairly obvious a year ago, and I don’t think there can be too much argument now.

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Anyone who would actually start Anthony Randolph at the 4 in the NBA should be shot and their bodies should be dragged throughout the streets until there is nothing left of their carcasses…..

RickP

The W’s gave up AR, Azubuike and Turiaf for Lee.

I’m thinking that AR is a bust. He’s done nothing in 3 years in the league. I based this on looking at his minutes. His coaches don’t want him on the floor.

I liked Azu, but it’s pretty clear that players with his size and skill level are not as difficult to acquire as others. I liked Turiaf too, but I think Lee contributes more.

So, my evaluation of the trade was that the W’s made a big mistake with AR and needed to get out from under it. In that context, trading for Lee made sense, even though he is a weak defender.

Should they have gotten a better player? Of course. Was one available? I doubt it.

jsteez

Totally agree with TK (almost), and I think most if not all serious fans were dissappointed with both of those moves.

It was clear that Lee was overpriced and defensively flawed (not to mention his stats were inflated by the Knicks style and pace of play), though the overstatement of him being ineffective weakens the argument. He’s our 2nd or 3rd best player, he’s no slouch, but just not a presence at the defensive end. The best teams have 4s AND 5s who rebound and block shots (or are named Dirk). Giving up Turiaf and Randolph and Azibuke on top of overpaying Lee made it that much worse. It was salt on the salary cap wound.

Taking Udoh over Monroe only made sense if we had a primary offensive option at center – Udoh was the NBA-ready defender – but didn’t make sense since he’s a 4, along with Lee, and couldn’t be paired with him. Monroe already had offensive bona fides, but seemed too slow to be a good post defender. The jury’s still out since Udoh’s minutes were in short supply after coming off injury, but given the age difference, the likelihood of him being better than Monroe is low.

MikeM

Black and Purple completely misses the point: The Maloofs just lost 98% of their family’s largest asset, the Palms. That indicates cash-flow problems.

They are so far in debt, they make George Shinn look rich. It happens, and the Kings lost the lottery on this one. The family has lost well over 90% of its assets. They went from billionaires to “comfortable.”

But, I gotta say, living in Sacramento really isn’t that much different from living in San Jose. Sorry to all you people who disagree. That isn’t the decision-maker for NBA players.

And yes, I’ve lived both places.

For all you people who are living under the illusion that

San Jose >>>>>>>>>>>> Sacramento…

Eh. Not really.

The problem for the Kings right now isn’t the city; it’s the owners. Or, if you prefer, the “Owers.” Because they owe EVERYONE money.

STH from sec 113

Rick P wrote

“So, my evaluation of the trade was that the W’s made a big mistake with AR and needed to get out from under it. In that context, trading for Lee made sense, even though he is a weak defender”.

This makes no sense. AR made peanuts compared to Lee. Trading for Lee is a much bigger mistake than drafting AR. MUCH BIGGER. The only thing more valuable than cap space is high draft picks. The signing of trading of Lee leaves us with no hope to get neither.

Nathan

Someone wrote that Monroe had the greenlight in Detroit, while Udoh did not. That is incorrect. Monroe was putting up good scoring numbers in the backhalf of the season despite not having any plays called for him. He had to go get the ball (off of rebounds) and score because the perimeter players on the team liked to jack up shots. This angered Pistons fans because Monroe’s fg% became insanely good as the season progressed. They were wondering why the coach didn’t have the offense go through Monroe much more often. Those covering the Pistons and those within the organization see Monroe eventually becoming a 20/10 guy. And just wait until he gets the ball in his hands more to show what he can do with his passing ability. As for his defense he plays good D because of his length, quick hands and nimble feet. I never understood the perception of Monroe being “slow”. He was never slow at Gtown. He got up the court very quickly for a big man and always defended well. He just wasn’t a great shotblocker. I suppose if one doesn’t have great leaping ability it is presumed they must be slow as well. That’s not the case with Monroe.

Monroe is still a work in progress but he is young, getting better all the time and is willing to learn. And while this may not be saying much he was considered, even as a rookie, to be the most mature player in the Pistons locker room, and that includes a few guys who have been around for awhile and have won a championship. There is not a trace of knucklehead in Monroe.

Oh, some guy also wrote that Udoh is 6’10 and only an inch shorter than Monroe. That guy would be mistaken.

W’s in 2010

lol @ the Queens.

REMEMBER last year they had a TON of capspace and they couldn’t sign a single free agent. Just because they have capspace doesn’t mean they’ll sign anybody or anybody would wanna sign there.

That team is built to lose. You got three ballhogs in Evans, Jimmer, Salmons, then you got a total chucker like Thornton off the bench. How is everybody gonna get touches?? Cousins will demand a trade before the deadline.

W’s in 2010

Oh, and the weather in SJ is so much better than Sac. I’ve lived in the South Bay and the Central Valley, weather in the Central Valley SUCKS. There is no spring or fall, it goes from winter straight to summer, back to winter. It sucks. Today the high in Sac was 104, in SJ it was 92. Huge difference. Some days there is no Delta breeze and the Valley is unbearable. The air sucks, the Valley gets all the butt smoke from the Bay Area, it’s a hell hole. The Bay Area is so much better, no comparison.

earl monroe

Speaking of the central valley, Bruce Bowen, Ray Allen, Gerald Madkins, the Poindexter brothers, DeShawn Stevenson (fresno)-all from the central valley Merced California to be exact not to mention Jesse Thompson the former Lion wide receiver also from Merced, Tony Slayton the all pro lineman also from Merced

I am sure I am missing some baseball players

b

@109 Earl Monroe.

Guess why none of the names mentioned choice their hometown as their permanent home?

earl monroe

Who wants to live in Merced?

earl monroe

Tony Slayton lives in Merced

luke mcwarmsky

tim, do u ever write an article without saying i or me a bazillion times? just saying…

luke mcwarmsky

tim is right, the deal and ensuing money for lee was atrocious and was topped by the drafting of udoh over monroe.

however, if the dubs sign nene and are able to trade ellis for either deng or igudala then the front court works. lee, nene, ai/or deng is a decent nba front court.

moving lee is paramount though in becoming a premier nba team.

chasdool

All this crap about character… Todd Fuller was a nice guy with great character and rhode scholar and all… The big question was could he play NBA basketball… same as Odanal Foyle… and Joe Smith… Brandon Wright

chasdool

@Luke Mcwarmsky… You… another Monta HATER!

Go Warriors

#99 is right, when you have star players talking about playing overseas this early in the off season, you know at least some of next season is a goner.

as for the Central Valley, the Sacramento Valley portion > to the San Joaquin Valley portion, most particularly air quality among things. Merced is San Joaquin.

earl monroe

Todd Fuller was not a Rhodes Scholar he declined it, and its Brandan Wright
and its Brandon Lee brother of David Lee and son of Bruce Lee David is only a half brother

dar

agree with everything, and next season anthony randolphs gonna breakout and make this deal look even worse

jason bourne

Man, I can watch college basketball any time I want. Is there gonna be any Euro ball?

JJ8

It really comes down to this:

Do you value the “potential” to sign a good player via free agency, over upgrading the roster immediately by adding a very good all star PF and Team USA invitee? With the Warriors history, I myself value this strategy of trading 3 BENCH players for starting caliber TALENT. The risk is you don’t have as much FA money, but the reality is the Warriors have never been big players in the FA market anyway.

Having cap space for free agents hasn’t usually equaled success for the Warriors. Who have they EVER gotten in free agency in the last decade? Fisher? Maggette? Turiaf? lol. The “good” players they’ve gotten have come via draft or trades. The more risky venture in my opinion is “hoping” for Anthony Randolph and “hoping” for a FA to sign here. And this is not the Lebron FA class. The top FA’s are David West, Nene, Marc Gasol, and Tyson Chandler. Hardly categorizable as coveted “elite” players to save your cap space for.

Here’s another realistic “what if.” The W’s win 20 games again last season w/Anthony Randolph at PF, the fans are pissed, the W’s have cap space but strike out or overpay? Then where are they? At least David Lee isn’t some unproven player or some washed up player, he’s a very good, multidimensional PF and a building block.

+1 — Shoulda drafted Monroe. I think many W’s share this belief
-1 — David Lee was the best option considering the alternatives (another 20 win seasons) and W’s FA history.
-1 — Biedrins contract is beyond excusable. Beans contract is the problem, not Lee’s