And now let's have another look at the road map

The enlargement agreed at Copenhagen leaves plenty still to be done

AT EIGHT in the evening on December 13th, the doors of the European Union swung open. The leaders of ten countries eager to join were ushered in to meet those of the 15 current members. Their applications had been approved. Champagne and speeches flowed. Latvia's President Vaira Vike-Freiberga proclaimed (in English and French) that “justice has been done.” Peter Medgyessy, from Hungary, averred that for his country “history begins again today, after an interruption of 60 years.”

Then came an awkward moment. The leaders of three candidates not yet accepted, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, were allowed to join the throng. Abdullah Gul, Turkey's prime minister, did not disguise his bitterness. Turkey had been told that the earliest it might even start negotiating was the end of 2004, and then only if a demanding series of political reforms had been put in place. “Far from satisfactory,” he said, though it would not deflect Turkey from its determination to join.

But the Copenhagen summit was indeed historic. What began as a club of six West European countries, linked by the horrors of a recent war, is due soon to number 25, up to—indeed, with the Baltic states, into—the edges of the former Soviet Union. The accession treaties must still be ratified. Nine of the ten would-be members will put them to referendums next year. Hungary is expected to go first, on April 12th. Current polls put approval there around 75%, and EU officials hope this will create momentum in places such as Estonia, where a recent poll recorded just 39% (albeit with only 31% against). Votes in Malta and Latvia too may be close.

The most eagerly awaited vote will be in Poland, with 39m of the hoped-for 75m new EU citizens. The last stages of the Polish accession negotiations were bitter, and its anti-EU voices are strong. Still, current polls show clear “yes” majorities.

And then?

If all goes well, the new members will join on May 1st, 2004. There will then be three key issues: their economic development; their impact, as members, on the EU; and the EU's handling of those countries still banging on its door, in particular Turkey.

Central Europe's economies are mainly doing well. All are growing faster than the EU average: by 5% in free-market Estonia last year. Free trade with the EU, except in farm products, is already in force. Taken together, Czech and Hungarian exports have almost trebled since 1993, over 60% going to EU buyers. Especially to these two, foreign investment is pouring in. Poland is a worrying exception; its GDP is barely rising and unemployment is near 20%.

All the candidates hope that actual membership will give a further boost. But they also worry about the costs of EU social and environmental rules, and wonder how their farmers will cope with competition from more-subsidised West European producers. Still, well-educated and low-paid labour should help all these countries to go on doing better than their new partners—as they must, if EU enlargement is to fulfil its central promise of closing the gap in living standards.

In Brussels the main concern is about the impact of the newcomers on the Union. Some are logistical: how long will EU meetings go on, if 25 countries have to say their piece; can the translation system cope? Officials are already dreading the negotiations over the next EU budget, as the newcomers struggle to improve what many see as the rotten financial deals of their entry terms, while current members fight to hold on to the loot.

As for policies, for “budget” read, notably, farm policy as such, a big issue for the newcomers; and, no less, the sundry EU efforts to help poor members catch up with rich ones. The newcomers will also affect the EU's fledgling foreign policy. They are likely to be more pro-American than some current members. George Bush recently got loud cheers when he gave a speech outdoors in Lithuania; he could barely risk such an event in parts of Western Europe.

The biggest foreign-policy issue for the new EU will be how to deal with the queue of further applicants. Six months after the new members join, the EU of 25 will be called upon to judge whether Turkey is fit to begin negotiations. Cyprus could prove troublesome. Hopes that talks in Copenhagen outside the summit could lead toward a deal to reunite the island came to little, but Cyprus was accepted anyway. Might its (Greek-)Cypriot government try to block Turkey's entry, as the Turks fear? Meanwhile, Romania and Bulgaria are already at the door, and others will surely come. The historic enlargement agreed at Copenhagen will not be the last.