India, Pak came close to N-confrontation 5 times

SPECIAL TO THE TRIBUNEIndia, Pak came close to N-confrontation 5 times
Shyam Bhatia in London

India and Pakistan came dangerously close to a nuclear confrontation on at least five occasions in the past 20 years, according to a visiting Pakistani nuclear physicist, defence analyst and editor of a new book â€œConfronting the Bomb: Indian and Pakistani Scientists Speak Out.â€

In an exclusive interview with The Tribune, Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy said the most serious confrontation was at the time of the 1999 Kargil war when Pakistan launched a covert operation hoping that its soldiers would ascend the mountains and cut Indiaâ€™s supply routes. Tensions were high and nuclear weapons were readied for use.

â€œAccording to Bruce Ridel, former Special Adviser to the US President who was present when President Bill Clinton met Nawaz Sharif in the White House, Nawaz replied in the negative when Clinton asked him if he knew what his army was doing.â€

Other occasions

Hoodbhoy said the first of the nuclear dramas started more than a decade earlier - during Operation Brass Tacks in 1987 - just when Pakistan acquired the bomb and sent a message to India: Donâ€™t get closer.

â€œGeneral Sundarji was in charge on the Indian side. He was a man who was gung ho about putting Pakistan in its right place. Here was a man who was terribly in love with nuclear weapons and used to say India doesnâ€™t need more than five nuclear weapons - for Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Peshawar and Islamabad.â€

Hoodbhoy said when tensions peaked over Kashmir in 1990 and there was an exodus of Kashmiri refugees into Pakistan, Islamabad again moved its nuclear weapons from Kahuta to the Chaklala air force base on to F16s. â€œThatâ€™s when the Americans are said to have known about it and conveyed a message to the Indians to back off.â€

Had India crossed the international border, it would have been confronted by a nuclear holocaust. Of course, Pakistan would have had to face one too.

â€œIn 2008 at the time of the attacks in Mumbai, there were voices that said that it was the time to ready nuclear weapons. I was in a TV studio with General Hamid Nawaz.

â€œWhen the anchor asked what should be done if India attacked, General Nawaz replied: Letâ€™s nuke them before they get too close to us.â€

Safe-keepers of Pak weapons

Hoodbhoy said he himself was against nuclear weapons. â€œI want both countries to get rid of nukes. I want them to shake hands and embrace each other. India and Pakistan are cultural cousins. Letâ€™s not let the Arabs divide us.â€

He added that current concerns within Pakistan about the future safety and security of the countryâ€™s nuclear arsenal stem from worries about what would happen if Islamic extremists, or jihadists, got their hands on nuclear weapons.

â€œThey believe the Government of Pakistan has to be destroyed for Islamic order to take over. So there is no limit to this madness. Even the Pakistan army which had as its recruiting slogan - Jihad in the name of God - today has had to distance itself from the jihadis.

â€œIf a nuclear weapon gets stolen...if fissile material is stolen...that could have catastrophic consequences. A stolen nuclear weapon could be detonated in principle anywhere in the world and the most likely would be either a city in India or a city in Pakistan. You might ask why in Pakistan? Its beyond comprehension. But then, also beyond comprehension is why a Muslim would blow himself up in a mosque (in Pakistan).â€

Currently, the custodian of Pakistanâ€™s nuclear weapons is the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) of the Pakistan army which is made up of 12,000-15,000 soldiers headed by General Khalid Kidwai.

The SPD claims to have complete control over weapons by virtue of installing electronic locks, enhancing perimeter protection and having a Personnel Reliability Programme (PRP).

â€œElectronic locks are things that are installed and require keys. The keys are similar to how you protect your email and computer from predators,â€ explained Hoodbhoy.

â€œPermissive Actions Links, known as PALS, are devices that enable the nuclear weapon to explode if and when desired and only when they pass through strict environmental tests - environmental meaning that certain conditions have to be fulfilled. For example, if it is a bomb to be dropped from an aircraft, then itâ€™ll experience zero gravity for a while...or if it is a bomb installed for a missile, then that missile has to experience acceleration and so forth.â€

He said one of the key features of the safety programme was the institution of the Personnel Reliability Programme, devised with the help and funding of the US.

â€œThat entails asking prospective employees, which means soldiers and others involved with nuclear weapons, to pass a battery of tests.

â€œTo the extent that I know, they ask individuals about their religious affiliations. Of course, all of them are Muslim, but do they belong to the Wahabi sect, the Deobandhi, to this or that Sufi sect? And who are their friends? Who are the people they work with? All that goes into forming the PRP.

â€œWhatâ€™s plainly dangerous is that if Pakistan continues to radicalise - at this rate - things might get out of the armyâ€™s control. So paradoxically, a strong Pakistan army is probably a better guarantor of stability than a Pakistani state that disintegrates. And India should recognise that.

â€œEven though the Indian and Pakistani armies are at loggerheads over a number of issues, the Pakistan army is necessary for Indiaâ€™s continued survival.â€

India never backed of due to the fear of nukes by pakistan, at least not only for the reason of nukes. It was the Americans who always said India to restrain from the attack. pakistan is surviving because of a puppet in India and the aid from America.....

â€œGeneral Sundarji was in charge on the Indian side. He was a man who was gung ho about putting Pakistan in its right place. Here was a man who was terribly in love with nuclear weapons and used to say India doesnâ€™t need more than five nuclear weapons - for Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Peshawar and Islamabad.â€

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what about Pindi ?? Ofcourse with those five hits Pak wont be in any position to anything in future.

India never backed of due to the fear of nukes by pakistan, at least not only for the reason of nukes. It was the Americans who always said India to restrain from the attack. pakistan is surviving because of a puppet in India and the aid from America.....

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India was clearly deterred in 1999 and 2001 by Paki nukes. Nothing about the US or any puppet regime in India. In 99 and 01 it was the BJP led govt in power. Unless off course if you want to call the BJP puppets of the US.

IMHO, we should and we would have to detonate nuclear bombs on Pakistan whether we would like to or not. It is not a question of if, but when.
In an ideal scenario, I would imagine we wouldn't go for all out nuclear bombing at first go.
At first, bombers would be sent out, I suppose to bomb key airbases as those are the places Pakis can launch their missiles and planes from. And this by no means would be a small exercise. It would be a massive strike possibly involving both heavy bombers and Su-30s to cover them.
It would be followed by nuking known nuclear bases and ultimately key Pakistani cities.
By that time, Pakistan would have managed to launch 3-4 of their missiles and we'd possibly be staring at atleast two detonations on Indian soil, possibly in states of Gujrat and Rajasthan.
The war wouldn't be allowed to proceed any further and Pakis would be compelled to surrender unconditionally, India of course would become a pariah for decades together, but that is a price we should be willing to pay for destroying the cockroach nest in our neighbourhood. The coming centuries will thank us for that.

India was clearly deterred in 1999 and 2001 by Paki nukes. Nothing about the US or any puppet regime in India. In 99 and 01 it was the BJP led govt in power. Unless off course if you want to call the BJP puppets of the US.

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Bhai, It was because of the lack of fast movement of IA to the borders and also the pressure from the U.S. saying that pak will use nukes, even Srhi Vajpee ji also bucked down......

India was clearly deterred in 1999 and 2001 by Paki nukes. Nothing about the US or any puppet regime in India. In 99 and 01 it was the BJP led govt in power. Unless off course if you want to call the BJP puppets of the US.

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But now news is coming out saying that even pak restrained from using their nukes as they turned out to be duds......

This number is low i think every other day is more like it. Pakistan is like the
boy that cried wolf a bluffer.

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Remember how the story ended?

The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking a wolf is attacking his flock. When a wolf actually does appear, the villagers do not believe the boy's cries for help, and the flock is destroyed. The moral at the end of the story shows that this is how liars are not rewarded: even if they tell the truth, no one believes them."