Buy American

Client Talking Points

Disaster Averted

So much for the end of the world. After the Italian election fiasco which tanked the market, we saw it rally yesterday to close at levels that were nearly the same before Berlusconi and Co. took over. We're not fleeing to "risk off" assets because of a down day in the market and thus, we are not buying Treasuries. We are short the Japanese Yen and will continue to use our levels and tried and true methodology to pick stocks using signals to tell us when the time is right.

Asset Allocation

CASH

40%

US EQUITIES

20%

INTL EQUITIES

20%

COMMODITIES

0%

FIXED INCOME

0%

INTL CURRENCIES

20%

Top Long Ideas

Company

Ticker

Sector

Duration

ASCA

We believe ASCA will receive a higher bid from another gaming competitor. Our valuation puts ASCA’s worth closer to $40.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

HOLX

HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

"The difference between the $EATFY10 turnaround and the $DRIFY13 - $EAT rethought the buz model while $DRI is defending what has not worked" -@HedgeyeHWP

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Who is rich? He that is content. Who is that? Nobody." -Benjamin Franklin

STAT OF THE DAY

The Commerce Department reported that total orders for goods meant to last more than three years slid 5.2%

CHART OF THE DAY: Not This Week

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02/27/13 07:31 AM EST

Not This Week

“Not this week, thank God.”

-Dwight D. Eisenhower

That’s what the President of The United States said to one of his senior advisors “with beads of sweat on Eisenhower’s forehead during the tense debate over whether and when to intervene” in Vietnam in 1954. (Ike’s Bluff, pg 131)

As many of you know from your risk management experiences, it’s what you don’t do under pressure that often defines your performance. “Eisenhower was an expert in finding reasons for not doing things recalled Andrew Goodpaster.” (pg 130)

That’s why I study the history of great leadership. It helps me empathize with and learn from what Teddy Roosevelt called “the struggle” of other men and women when they were under pressure. It also gives me confidence in making decisions. That doesn’t always mean I’ll make the right call. It just means I’ll have known why I made it.

Back to the Global Macro Grind…

Eisenhower’s legacy is that he didn’t let the French suck US casualties into Vietnam in 1954. He also avoided playing the end of the world card (releasing the bomb) during a time when plenty of Americans had US politicians (LBJ) freaking them out about outer space.

If the world ended this morning, I am pretty sure A) I wouldn’t be writing this and B) you wouldn’t be reading anything else. So, with that in mind, and the entire manic media focused on what is so 2010-2011 (Italian Bond auctions), what happened?

Italian Bond Auction was better than “expected”, so bond yields fell, making another lower long-term high

US Equity Futures held onto yesterday’s gains; the 2nd up day in the last 3 (+4.9% YTD)

I’m not trying to be complacent about Italy’s economic risks (just don’t be long Italy, and get over it). I’m well aware of what Eisenhower himself coined as The Domino Theory. We made this call on Europe around this time in Q1 of 2010 don’t forget. It’s 2013, and we don’t see Italy being the domino that knocks down our bull case for Asian and US Equities right now.

That could change. The plan is always changing. And when it does, I’ll be the first to let you know. But, for now, let’s focus on doing more of what we did when people were freaking out about Congress at the end of December:

Buy Asian (China and Singapore) and US Stocks (EWS, CAF, XLF)

Short US Treasuries (TLT)

Short Japanese Yen (FXY)

Why buy American instead of Italian?

US #Housing is ripping (New Home Sales shocked the bears to the upside yesterday with inventory falling, again!)

So, if you are shorting Treasuries, can’t buy European or Japanese Sovereign Debt, and have to buy something else, why not Asian or American stocks? To be clear, I don’t have to buy anything. But when I do buy something, both the signal and research back it.

The last point I want to make this morning is about volatility expectations. I get the front-month VIX is different than the term-structure of volatility’s curve. Looking at expectations, across durations, will amplify my point:

VIX (front-month) TREND resistance = 17.18, and that was only violated to the upside for ½ a day

VIX was at 40 in Q1 of 2010 after we were legitimately concerned about European Dominos

As you can see in the Darius Dale’s Chart of The Day, front-month Volatility (VIX) continues to make a series of long-term lower highs as the volume of the manic media’s freak-outs make higher-highs. Think they’ll make the call on the end of the world, together?

If this is just a mini-mania of what you saw in November-December (substitute Italy for US Congress), what is it, specifically, that you have a as a catalyst that would stop the VIX from going straight back down to 12 from here?

It’s not going to 12 this week. I get that. But the VIX is probably not going back to 22.72 or 42.96 (the SEP2011 freak-out) this week either. If I see anything real developing that changes my view on this, I’ll just change my mind. I don’t have to do that yet, thank God.

THE M3: MGM CHINA POST-CNY; UNEMPLOYMENT; SMOKING BAN; INFLATION EASE

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 27, 2013

MGM CHINA SEES MACAU CASINO VIP BUSINESS PICK UP Bloomberg

VIP business has seen a “strong comeback” after the festival that ended on Feb. 17, Bill Hornbuckle, chief marketing officer of MGM Resorts, said in Macau today. MGM China said it hasn’t seen any sign of a Chinese crackdown on the junkets. “There’s never any real, concrete indication or direction from the government,” said Pansy Ho, chairman of MGM China and daughter of Stanley Ho. “Although the growth rate of VIP business may slow, I’m not aware of any crackdown.”

Pansy Ho said she has no plan to cut her 27% stake in MGM China.

EMPLOYMENT SURVEY FOR NOVEMBER 2012-JANUARY 2013 DSEC

Macau unemployment for November 2012-January 2013 held stable at 1.9%. Total labor force was 358,000; the labor force participation rate stood at 72.5%, up by 0.1%. Total employment increased continuously, reaching 351,000 in November 2012-January 2013, an increase of 1,400 from the previous period.

LAWMAKERS CALL FOR FULL CASINO SMOKING BAN Macau Business

Legislative Assembly members yesterday urged city officials to review the partial ban on smoking inside casinos as soon as possible, making them completely smoke-free. The most vocal assembly member was Angela Leong On Kei, who is also an executive director of SJM.

A regular review of the ban is scheduled for 2015, but assembly members want it to be pushed forward. However, the head of the Health Bureau, Lei Chin Ion, said yesterday the review would only take place in 2015 as scheduled. Lei said yesterday that the bureau detected 118 violations of the partial smoking ban in casinos between January 1 and February 20, 60% of which involved tourists.

VISITOR DROP TO HELP EASE INFLATION: TAM Macau Business

Secretary Francis Tam said that consecutive monthly declines in visitor arrivals could help ease Macau’s strong internal demand and consequently slow down inflation. Tam said that strong purchasing power of tourists is the “main factor” pushing up the city’s internal demand.

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02/27/13 07:02 AM EST

The Four Horsemen

This note was originally published
at 8am on February 13, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

"On the road we're somebody else's guests - and we play in a way that they're not going to forget we visited them."

- Knute Rockne

With Keith and Daryl on the road across the pond I've been tapped to pen this morning's Early Look. In doing so, I'll bring an alternate angle to the morning missive compared to my hockey colleagues since my foundation was forged on the gridiron.

In 1924, the Four Horsemen as they were coined comprised Notre Dame's spirited backfield under legendary football coach Knute Rockne. During their three year run together ('22-'25) they only lost two games. They weren't the biggest, nor the fastest, but together they were dominant.

At Hedgeye, we have our own spirited foursome who delivered on our Best Consumer Ideas call on Monday. With the most recent addition to the team, Rob Campagnino, launching Consumer Staples coverage in December, the records have yet to be written, but that's precisely the spirit of Hedgeye's new Best Ideas product - we'll be keeping score real-time with #timestamps. Later I'll hit on four (IGT, JCP, KMB and BKW) of the nine Best Consumer Ideas presented.

First, let me highlight two new process improvements we introduced to Institutional Hedgeye clients on the call, our Best Ideas Product and new Consumer Coverage initiative that I will be spearheading personally. In brief, the Best Ideas Product will highlight only the Best Ideas from each sector firm-wide (4-8 per year). Clients will be notified of changes and additions to this list through Black Books and research notes.

Our Consumer Coverage offering provides a customized approach to conveying our top calls across all of Consumer, beyond just the Best Ideas. Drawing on my experience covering the Retail sector over the last 4+ years, I am working alongside each of our Four Horsemen infusing original content, analysis and risk management (quant/factor overlay) to select clients. For more information on either of these new offerings, please contact us at sales@hedgeye.com.

Back to our horsemen. Similarities can be drawn between each consumer sector head and Rockne's horsemen - quarterback (Harry Stuhldreher), fullback (Elmer Layden) and two halfbacks (Jim Crowley and Don Miller) by comparing sector beta (not physiques).

We have Rob Campagnino (Consumer Staples) representing the lowest relative beta - our 'three yards and a cloud of dust' fullback, two halfbacks in Howard Penney (Restaurants) and Brian McGough (Retail), and our high-beta quarterback in Todd Jordan (Gaming, Lodging and Leisure). A sorted bunch indeed, but I look forward to taking the field with these guys. Before we hit on some Ideas, let's cover a little ground on where we stand on the consumer and sectors.

Our view on the consumer here is one of concern of slowing demand from lower-to-middle income earners and underperformance of the companies over-indexed to this demographic. Meanwhile, the latest results out of Hermes and Michael Kors suggest the higher-end consumer remains resilient. Among the factors at play here include payroll tax increases of 2%; at the same time we're seeing a surge in gas prices over the last 3-weeks to historic February highs. The reality is that a pinch on consumer wallets near-term from both ends does not improve sentiment nor spur spending.

Another factor on the horizon to consider is the wealth effect of an improving housing market. As highlighted in our Q1 Macro Themes call, our #HousingsHammer theme suggests that house prices will increase due to lower supply, rising demand and stabilizing mortgage purchase application activity. This is positive indeed, but it will take time to manifest after which point it will take more time for people to actually feel better about their financial position. The timing here will more likely be measured not in months, but years.

As for sectors, regardless of what duration you pull over the last year, the Staples Sector SDPR ETF (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XRT) have consistently outpaced the S&P 500. Year-to-date alone the XLP and XRT are up +7.3% and +8.7% respectively versus the S&P's encouraging +6.5% start.

A look at the chart below reflects this recent performance. Interestingly, yet not surprisingly, the move in price has not been supported in kind by a corollary move in upward earnings revisions with investors seeking yield. This is reflected in a valuation premium in likely sectors (Utilities, Health Care and Staples) 1.4x-2x standard deviations above recent history. The next closest sector? You guessed it, Consumer Discretionary clocking in with a 0.8x STD premium.

While these levels suggest peaky valuations, we're not trying to call a top, but simply recognize that it may be prudent to look beyond fundamentals alone when considering long positions at these levels. As a result, our list of longs consists of largely event/catalyst-driven stories. Fortunately, there are plenty of stocks that fit that criteria for those committed to playing Consumer.

Here are four callouts among the nine Best Ideas discussed Monday, which also included CAG, CAKE, and ASCA (long) and PNK and UA (short):

IGT (Long) - After refocusing on game content and digesting several poor acquisitions to establish online gaming, the stock is at an inflection point with a rebound expected in ROIC. Growing replacement demand and new domestic and international markets should drive multi-year bull slot market. In addition, substantial share repurchase activity expected to continue with accelerating FCF. Bearish sentiment and 11x EPS multiple do not reflect the 20%+ earnings growth we expect. One of the better looking long-term longs as its nowhere near 5yr or all time highs = bullish formation with TREND breakout line of 14.26.

JCP (Long) - Near-term sentiment is too bearish at a time when the delta in top-line is likely to get better. We think improving sales trajectory with comps turning positive in 3Q and improving dot.com will drive the stock higher. Liquidity remains a concern, but we don't see it surfacing over the intermediate-term. TREND breakout above $20.41 is when the long works quantitatively, below that is all storytelling.

KMB (Short) - Top-line growth is masking deteriorating earnings quality at peak valuation. EBIT growth is largely derived from unsustainable restructuring savings and a slowing commodity benefit that swings to a headwind in 2013. Notably, the stock closed at $89.90 flirting with quantitative TRADE support at $89.81 - below that is where you press.

BKW (Short) - Never 'fixed' during its stint as a private company, the outlook for the U.S. and Canada (60% of total) is deteriorating. Some North American franchisees are tracking well below expectations. Decelerating comps are likely to compress BKW's industry high multiple. The stock is breaking down through both TRADE (17.45) and TREND (16.78) lines of support - short it here.

With the calls on the board and #timestamped, the Four Horsemen are off and running. For a replay of our Best Consumer Ideas call and slides, contact sales@hedgeye.com

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