Sunday, August 16, 2015

Staunton, August 16 – Russia under
Vladimir Putin is “a deeply ill country which does not have the chance to
realize its imperial ambitions,” according to Andrey Zubov. But because Putin
is trying to do just that, he is at risk of losing everything: his own
popularity, control over Ukraine, and the Russian military-industrial complex
which is deeply dependent on Ukraine.

“In order
to defeat Germany,” Zubov says, “the strongest powers of the world needed five
years, but the situation with regard to Russia today is entirely different.
Putin calculated that everyone would close their eyes to the annexation [of Crimea]
and possibly on some further actions regarding Ukraine.”

Moreover,
he assumed that half of Ukraine would support him given the way in which the
eastern portions of that country had voted since the 1990s. “But nothing came
of this. All [Putin’s] calculations turned out to be incorrect.” Indeed, Putin
and his team have made “a whole series of very crude mistakes.”

After an
initial burst of euphoria, Crimea has turned out to be a burden rather than a
victory; Ukrainians in the east have not supported Putin’s aggression, and “besides,
the West is acting in a very monolithic and consolidated way by introducing
serious sanctions which are constantly being intensified. At the same time, no
one supports Russia,” not even its “closest and most dependent” neighbors.

“There is
a Russian proverb,” Zubov says. “’From love to hatred is a single step.’ When
an impulsive, spontaneous affection arises with people then typically after it,
if this love disappoints comes a similarly irrational hatred.I fear that we are at the beginning of this
second stage” in Russia.

Crimea cannot
be reclaimed by military means, he continues, adding that Western pressure will
help.But at the same time, Zubov says,
Ukrainians need to ask themselves whether they want it back or whether they
might be better off not getting it back given the attitudes of people
there.The only way to move forward, he
suggests, is with a new referendum.

Eastern
Ukraine resembles Transdniestria but not really Abkhazia or South Osetia, Zubov
suggests.Both places are ones in which “the
soviet mentality dominates.” For Ukraine’s future, “it is very important that
this mentality be overcome,” and that will require tact and care in dealing
with the population of the east once Russian forces leave.

Once
Moscow pulls its forces out, Zubov argues, pro-Moscow groups “will not hold out
two weeks. They understand that perfectly well, and therefore as soon as Russia
leaves the Donbas, they will go with it, surrender or flee. The so-called LNR and DNR will cease their existence very
quickly.”

And Russia will leave because it
does not want to suffer further sanctions and become a large North Korea.
According to Zubov, “unofficial talks are going on about this now.” Their task
is simple: how can Russia leave without losing face. “But apparently, it won’t
be able to do so without losing face.” Thus, Ukraine will have to show great
tact in dealing with the situation.

Putin wasn’t prepared for all this
because he had not prepared for war. Indeed, Zubov says, “no one seriously
thought about war even in Soviet times, and when Khrushchev attempted to do something
in Cuba in 1962, he was immediately removed. Everyone understands that nuclear
war is impossible. Therefore Russia only uses this as a threat.”

Zubov says that in his view, Putin
launched his aggression in Ukraine for three reasons: to boost his popularity,
to keep Ukraine from leaving the Russian sphere of influence, and to ensure
that Russia’s military-industrial complex would not suffer given the importance
of Ukrainian plants for its operation.

But because he miscalculated, the
Kremlin leader “has lost everything.”