Weather and Traffic

New tropical waves could soak South Florida; 94L forms near Gulf

PM UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has designated the system currently over the Yucatan Peninsula as Invest 94L. It’s forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday where could become the season’s fourth tropical depression or storm. (See forecast tracks below.)

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ORIGINAL POST: After a wet weekend, more rain may be on the way next week as a pair of tropical waves slide across the Caribbean, the National Weather Service says.

Rain chances remain in the 50-60 percent range today and Sunday, forecasters say, but the shower and thunderstorm activity may be tempered by a shot of dry Saharan air, particularly in southern areas, according to the Weather Service.

Instead of a soaking on Friday, many coastal areas saw sprinkles.

Palm Beach measured 0.13 of an inch while Palm Beach International reported just 0.08 of an inch. Fort Lauderdale checked in with 0.37 of an inch while Miami posted 0.11 of an inch.

While storms across Palm Beach County and most of South Florida have been relatively tame, it was a different story in Central Florida where wind gusts of more than 50 mph were reported.

Vero Beach had a gust of 53 mph while Melbourne recorded a gust of 42 mph and St. Lucie was slapped with a 43-mph gust. Gusts in the high 30s were common including gusts of 38 mph in Cocoa Beach and 37 mph at Disney World’s Magic Kingdom, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

RECORD WATCH: Orlando broke a record for warmest minimum temperature on Friday with 77 degrees, busting the previous mark of 76 set in 2003.

Friday’s low at PBIA was 75 — about average for this time of the year — with a high of 91. It was 75 and 93 in Palm Beach.

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WATCHING FOR DANIELLE: The NHC upped the chances of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico to 60 percent over the next two days. If it spins up into a 39 mph system in the Bay of Campeche, it would be named Tropical Storm Danielle.

The National Hurricane Center boosted the chance of development for disturbance 94L to 60 percent. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday. (Credit: NHC)

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Hurricane return periods are highest in South Florida, the New Orleans area and the North Carolina coast. (Credit: NOAA)

MANY UNHAPPY RETURNS: Here’s an interesting — and disturbing — graphic from NOAA regarding “hurricane return periods.” It refers to the frequency a hurricane can be expected at or near a given location. In Palm Beach County, it’s seven years for a hurricane and 16 years for a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher.

“In simpler terms, a return period of 20 years for a major hurricane means that on average during the previous 100 years, a Category 3 or greater hurricane passed within 50 nm (58 miles) of that location about five times,” NOAA says in an explanatory note. “We would then expect, on average, an additional five Category 3 or greater hurricanes within that radius over the next 100 years.”

It lends some credence to the concept of being “overdue,” since a hurricane has not passed through or near Palm Beach County for almost 11 years — since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.