Thoughts on culture and events by author and illustrator Christopher R Taylor

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

ALARMISM FAILS

”Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”-Life Magazine, 1970

I think its time for another update on global warming. You don't hear that term so much these days, "global warming" unless its an attack on someone; "you don't believe in Global Warming!" The rest of the time, alarmists really try to avoid the term because it not only has gotten so much mockery and disdain it has fallen out of favor but... most people can tell it isn't warming.

I think the biggest problem people have with the climate alarmist is that they make so many predictions and none of them come true. Let me repeat that: none of them come true. Not one.

Remember this graph?

Yeah, Michael "Piltdown" Mann's hockey stick. See that blue part that ends? That's when the graph reached the end of its allegedly recorded numbers. I won't go into how inaccurate the data was again here, but see where it keeps going up? How the spike fires up into the stratosphere? It's after 2000. What really happened, did the temperature keep rocketing dramatically upward?

Actually, no. That shows the difference between various IPCC predictions and what really took place with the temperature, globally, as best we can measure it. After 2000 it has been trending down, not up. As in, the world is cooling, rather than warming. That Hockey Stick graph's prediction was utterly false.

This happens all over the global warming prediction business. Check out these images (courtesy Watt's Up With That) concerning Mt Snowdon in Wales:

Oh no!

Oops.

An alarmist study predicted the cap would be utterly devoid of snow by 2020. Maybe it will be, but not at this rate.

A few weeks ago I noted that a prediction of 50 million "climate refugees" by 2010 given in 2005 turned out to be hilariously false.

March 20, 2000, from The Independent, According to Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, snowfall in Britain would become “a very rare and exciting event” and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” Yeah, that East Anglia CRU, the one that had the scandalous emails. The last two winters have been so snow packed Britain has essentially shut down.

In 1998, Dr Hanson from NASA declared that New York City would be seeing flooding by 2018 because of sea level rise. The sea level does appear to have risen: around 11" per century for the last two centuries. Since then Hanson has claimed he misspoke and actually meant forty years. Given that it would take a 10 foot rise in water levels to flood New York City, maybe he meant 10 centuries.

Since 1992, the Himalayan glaciers have been stable despite hysterical predictions of vanishing glaciers by the IPCC.

Other than cyclical increases and drops (El Nino, for example), the ocean has not been warming as alarmists have predicted over and over.

In fact, alarmists have run all sorts of computer modeling trying to predict future events and every single one of them has been wrong. Sometimes hilariously so. All we have had to do is wait and see how things don't turn out as they predicted.

Tales From a Spanish Village actually has a host of these failed predictions, from books to celebrities to scientists, all telling us of future (for them) doom which never took place.

And I think this is the second biggest reason climate alarmism is failing. The first is that its obviously not warmer - in most of North America its actually been cooler. The second is that they keep predicting things that aren't so. And if you do that long enough, people just stop paying attention. Unless you're an astrologer, I guess.

Like I said a while back, after a while you'd figure someone would stand up and say "boys, I think we're doing something wrong."