Sunday, April 5, 2009

Voters are sceptical over promises of reform, after Najib's predecessor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi failed to implement his own pledges to fight corruption and strengthen race relations during six years in power.

Channel News Asia

Malaysia: Malaysia's new premier Najib Razak came to power last week with an ambitious reform agenda aimed at winning back voters disenchanted with the ruling party.

His promises to overhaul the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which represents majority Muslim Malays, and repair ties with the nation's ethnic Chinese and Indians, will be tested Tuesday in three by-elections.

"It is a referendum for Najib," said Mohammad Agus Yusoff, political analyst with the National University of Malaysia.

"He has to win the hearts of the people. He must work hard to bring reforms. He has to win back non-Malay support," he told AFP.

However, Najib comes to office with heavy burdens. The economy is sliding towards recession and the ruling party is in disarray after being mauled by the newly resurgent opposition in elections a year ago.

Voters are sceptical over promises of reform, after Najib's predecessor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi failed to implement his own pledges to fight corruption and strengthen race relations during six years in power.

And Najib faces relentless attacks on his reputation by the opposition which has sought to link him with corruption and the sensational murder of a Mongolian woman who was the mistress of his one-time adviser.

Political observers say the by-elections will provide a snapshot of the public mood, and show whether UMNO has been able to claw back support with its plans to tackle corruption and infighting.

The headline vote will be held in Bukit Gantang in northern Perak state, near the former tin mining town of Taiping, where a seat in national parliament is up for grabs.

The other votes are for seats in state parliaments - one in the northern state of Kedah and another in Sarawak on Borneo island which until now has been a stronghold of the UMNO-led coalition.

Najib has already presided over two by-election losses for the Barisan Nasional coalition since the disastrous March 2008 general elections, when it lost a third of parliamentary seats and five states to the opposition.

In his first act as premier, Najib announced Friday that he was revoking a controversial ban on two opposition newspapers and releasing 13 people held under internal security laws that allow for detention without trial.

Among those to be freed Sunday are two ethnic Indian leaders who were detained after organising unprecedented protests alleging discrimination against the minority community.

But analysts said the gestures must be swiftly followed by more substantial moves to implement his wide-ranging reforms to tackle corruption and infighting, and decisive action to shore up the economy.

"He has to have strong political will to bring changes. If he fails to do it in the first 60 days he will miss the opportunity to bring reform," said Mohammad Agus.

"If he does not make major reforms quickly to win back the voters, that is the end of UMNO and Barisan Nasional. In the next elections UMNO and Barisan Nasional will be history."

Ngiam Ai Ling, an analyst with Fitch Ratings, said that the Malaysian economy was slowing down and that the ratings firm expected it to contract by 4.8 per cent in 2009.

She said that the government's 16.2-billion-dollar stimulus package unveiled last month could not prevent a recession, and that Najib also faced the problem of deteriorating unemployment.

"There is no escaping from the global downturn. In that sense I guess it will be difficult for Najib to manage the economy," said the Singapore-based analyst.