Nominate qwert for poster of the year! Although English is not his first language, his outstanding contributions and new ideas keep CC advancing in many areas. The clan league CL5 particularly, his efforts should be rewarded.

I nominate Anatolia for this post, one of the most insightful comments on one of the most discussed topics in Conquer Club

Anatolia wrote:Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.

Fewnix wrote:I nominate Anatolia for this post, one of the most insightful comments on one of the most discussed topics in Conquer Club

Anatolia wrote:Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.