Michigan Basketball moves into first place in the B1G

I didn't want to jinx it till it was over, but Penn St. just beat Illinois, moving Michigan to the top of the B1G standings(at least until the other 2 loss teams play Saturday). Obviously Michigan's schedule was front-loaded with home games, but its still pretty cool, eh?

sure Illinois is that good. I am not really sure Indiana is that good. It is impossible with in Assembly Hall when Indiana is terrible, so the big victories early on at home may not be a great indicator of how good they are. Iowa beat Wisky before they beat us, and NW wins at least 3 "huh" type games per year. The big ten on the road is a loss except in very rare circumstances or unless you have a guy name Sullinger who consumes human beings as part of his regular diet. This much we know. tOSU is good, really good. Everything else still needs to shake out before we even know who the other contenders are.

We would be hearing, "Well the big ten is so good top to bottom that they are beating up on each other".. So I'll go with that because in a way (and I'm sure my heart loves to believe it) the Big Ten is pretty solid top to bottom.

There's your difference. The night that Louisville got beat down by Providence, ESPN said the Big East is a deep league top to bottom. That same night, OSU lost to Illinois and the headline read "B1G powerhouse drops one". Depth is always in perception. The weakest B1G in recent memory was the 2004-2005 season where we took 2 teams in the Final Four.

We would be hearing, "Well the big ten is so good top to bottom that they are beating up on each other".. So I'll go with that because in a way (and I'm sure my heart loves to believe it) the Big Ten is pretty solid top to bottom.

At this point in the season, we have won in the Big 10 with crummy 3 point shooting. How the season ends up for Michigan depends largely on whether or not our 3 pt percentage increases significantly, especially for Hardaway and Smotrycz.

One way I like to look at B1G standings during the season is to take road wins and subtract home losses. This is basically an indication of how far a team is from going 9-9 (winning all of their home games and losing all of their road games).

When you do that, you get:

+2 MSU (perfect at home, 2 road wins)

+1 OSU, Illinois, Purdue

0 Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota (only UM is perfect at home in this group)

We might fall from first place, but I really see us winning a Big Ten regular season championship and a number one seed in the BTT this year. We've looked pretty good so far in Big Ten play with a bad Hardaway and an even worse Smot. Those two get it turned around and look out. The only team that really stands out as a challenge is Ohio - but I think the team will rally around Burke and really play with the same intensity they had for the MSU game. What's the over/under on the number of times they mention Sullinger and Burke were high school teammates? That's gonna get annoying.

It is nice to be in first but it probably can't last. What would be the O/U on BIG wins for M at this point? I would say 10 maybe 11 and neither of those numbers will get the title. If Michigan wins 12 in conference and one of those is against the Buckeyes, they might have enough for the championship.

hard to say. They're 2 shots from being 3-4. This will be easier to answer after the Purdue game. It's really a matter of figuring out what road games they can win. Right now, I'd guess they'll win at PSU and UN, which would put them at 11-7. However, they could lose a home game to OSU/Illinois/Indiana. Assume 2 road wins, 1 home loss, you get 10-8.

Purdue and NW are winnable road games, so a win at Purdue would make an 11 or 12 win prediction more reasonable.

While Ohio, Illinois, State, and Wisconsin have been consistent final four contenders for the past decade or so, I think its a bit of a reach to compare B1G basketball to SEC Football. Oversigning aside, the SEC owns CFB. Oregon was simply no match for LSU but Alabama was the better team really both times they played. They own CFB like Ohio owned us until Hoke/Mattison changed the game. B1G bball has had a few runnerups this decade, but no title since State won in 2000. Wishful thinking.