SMALL BUSINESS BLOG -- SCOTT SUTTELL

Post-election, small business optimism drops

Small business owners do not share the sentiments of the majority of American voters, according to a new survey from Vistage International Inc. and The Wall Street Journal

The survey, taken a week after President Barack Obama's re-election “found a significant drop in optimism compared with the months leading up to the election, as respondents anticipated a worsening economy in 2013,” The Journal reports. They worry that “forthcoming federal policies, including potentially higher taxes and health-care reform, could stunt growth and hiring at their firms.”

The survey's overall confidence index, based on responses of 740 small-business owners, fell to 83.9 from 95.3 in October, according to The Journal. That is the lowest in the survey's six-month history.

Specifically, the newspaper notes, “the survey's index of expected economic conditions fell to 77 from 105, a result of 43% of the respondents anticipating worse U.S. conditions in the next 12 months. That is nearly twice as many as October's 23%.”

Anticipating higher taxes under President Obama, “more business owners are preparing cutbacks to their payroll and other overhead expenses,” The Journal reports. “November's employment index fell to 124 from 141 as 16% of owners are planning to reduce staff in the next year, up from 9% in October.”

Also, the survey's fixed-investment index fell to 107 from 123, “in part because 23% of owners plan to decrease their investment expenditures, up from 14% last month,” according to the newspaper.

As Ohio goes ...

Retailers generally need a good holiday season to have a good year, and this piece from Forbes.com suggests that one of the best ways for them to do that is buy understanding a critical group of customers — the women of Ohio.

Just as Ohio voters were key to understanding the U.S. electorate more broadly, female consumers in the state offer great insight into the minds of shoppers this holiday season, the story notes. Hatchedit.com, a micro-social network built around organization tools, partnered with Mon-Spot — described as a “growing group of women harnessing their power as consumers to provide research and focus group information to brands” — to get some insight into the minds of Ohio women with respect to their buying plans.

Based on the results, retailers might be in for a so-so season.

Among the findings:

62% of Ohio women expect to spend less money on the holidays this year than in 2011.

69% have budgeted $500 or less for holiday spending this year.

55% said family and friends would sway their purchase decisions.

50% said they would make “most of their holiday purchases” online.

57% said that no single sale day was very important to their shopping strategy.

65% said coupons will play a role in what they decide to purchase this holiday season.

Modest expectations

In November, manufacturers big and small reported that business grew at its quickest pace in five month, with “a rise in domestic demand hinting that factories could provide a boost to economic growth in the fourth quarter,” according to Reuters.

Financial information firm Markit said its U.S. "flash," or preliminary, manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.4 from a three-year low of 51.0 in October. Reuters notes that a reading above 50 points to growth in the factory sector.

Still, the news service reports, “economists cautioned against taking the reading at face value as other gauges of manufacturing have looked softer, including readings for new orders and regional business sentiment surveys.

“We're still not exactly going gangbusters," says Sarah Watt, an analyst at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C. "The data point to modest growth."

Some respondents in Markit's survey said efforts to rebuild after Hurricane Sandy may have accounted for some of the increased demand.

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