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Monday, December 20, 2010

How Much Better Is Dwight Howard Than Al Horford?

Short answers: Some...depends how you account for defense...not as much as you* might think.

There's no question that Dwight Howard has been a far superior NBA player to Al Horford over the past three seasons. So far this season, Horford has closed the gap significantly despite his team's predilection for giving priority to 30-year-old offensive-minded guards over young, well-rounded post players.

Dwight Howard has a significant advantage over Horford as a scorer because Howard has been almost as efficient as Horford despite being a far larger part of Orlando's offense than Horford is of the Atlanta offense.

Name

Pts/36

TS%

Usg%

Howard

22.1

58.7

29

Horford

17.9

60.8

21.3

Scoring doesn't tell the whole story, as Horford is far more likely than Howard to earn an assist and far less likely to turn the ball over

Thus, the 4.2 point (per 36 minutes) scoring advantage Howard enjoys over Horford is more than negated by the extra 4.8 points (per 36 minutes) Horford's passing creates for his teammates and Horford's efficiency advantage only increases when the two extra turnovers Howard commits every 36 minutes are accounted for.

To be remotely comparable to Howard, Horford has to out-produce him with the ball in his hands because of all that Howard does to get the ball. Horford is a very good rebounder (13th in the league in defensive rebound rate, 17th in the league in total rebound rate this season) he's just not nearly as good a rebounder as Howard.

Name

OR%

DR%

Howard

11.1

30.5

Horford

8.9

25.3

Howard makes more defensive plays than Horford, as well:

Name

BS/36

S/36

Howard

2.4

1.1

Horford

1.0

0.9

Defensive plays do not tell the whole defensive story and both players play a key role in their team's defensive systems. Neither the Hawks nor the Magic have had a major drop-off when Horford or Howard have been off the court this season: the Hawks give up 1.3 more points per 100 possessions with Horford on the bench, the Magic give up half-a-point more per 100 possessions with Howard on the court so far this season but Howard certainly deserves credit for Orlando's general defensive excellence whereas Horford, it must be acknowledged, does not appear capable of elevating his team much above the league's defensive average.

I don't have a strong opinion on the matter. I think the Hawks would be well served to play Horford at the 5 (and Josh Smith at the 4) as much as possible but Horford obviously can't match up physically against Howard in the post. Though I think that could be mitigated some by getting Horford on the move more often offensively. Of course, that would necessitate acquiring and/or playing a guard who can run pick-and-roll.

So, ideally, the Hawks would employ a backup center that can defend and rebound. Easier said than done, that.