Fantasy Football: Regression Candidates Through Week 14

If you're still alive in your fantasy leagues, congratulations on not facing Le'Veon Bell.

Bell is one of a handful of week-winning, game-changing players in fantasy -- but most players aren't ultimate trump cards.

In this week's Regression Candidates, we'll take a look at four contributors performing both above and below expectation.

Negative Regression Candidates

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Donte Moncrief was the most obvious negative regression candidate for the past few weeks -- he had scored in every full game he had played, up until Sunday -- but I opted to avoid mentioning him in this column every week after writing him up about a month ago.

His quarterback, Andrew Luck, has been up and down recently, but faces off against the tough Minnesota Vikings this week. The Vikings suppress fantasy scoring, allowing the third-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Luck's efficiency has been middling, ranking just 20th in Passing NEP per drop back, but he's made up for it with volume. However, additional volume against a top-flight defense might not be a good thing.

Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Tevin Coleman has rushed for a touchdown on six of his 18 red zone carries. This conversion rate of 33.3 percent is the second-highest in the NFL (behind Latavius Murray), but it has come on a completely unsustainable market share of rushes inside the 20.

Only two other running backs have scored at least six touchdowns on fewer than half of their team's carries in the red zone -- LeSean McCoy (49.2%) and Ryan Mathews (46.7%) being the others -- but Coleman's red zone market share is just 25.7%. His game-breaking speed and involvement in the pass game will keep him relevant, but his rushing touchdown total is inflated.

If you're starting Cameron Brate, you likely don't have a better option, and that's okay. Brate has become a touchdown-dependent option, and his target share has been extremely inconsistent this season. Among players with 10-plus targets in the red zone, Brate has converted the third-highest rate of targets into touchdowns (46.2%).

This is double the league-average rate, and his size -- and Jameis Winston's propensity to target the tight end -- have a good amount to do with this. However, given the upcoming matchups -- which are favorable for Mike Evans -- Brate can be expected to regress.

This table contains a list of running backs with six or more red zone touchdowns, sorted by touchdown rate.

Player

Red Zone Carries

Red Zone Touchdowns

Red Zone TD%

Latavius Murray

32

11

34.4%

Tevin Coleman

18

6

33.3%

Ezekiel Elliott

33

10

30.3%

LeSean McCoy

30

8

26.7%

LeGarrette Blount

48

12

25.0%

Ryan Mathews

28

7

25.0%

Jonathan Stewart

33

8

24.2%

Le'Veon Bell

25

6

24.0%

DeMarco Murray

37

8

21.6%

David Johnson

43

9

20.9%

Melvin Gordon

50

10

20.0%

Matt Forte

31

6

19.4%

Carlos Hyde

31

6

19.4%

Jeremy Hill

37

7

18.9%

Matt Asiata

33

6

18.2%

Devonta Freeman

40

7

17.5%

The following table includes players with at least 10 red zone targets, 5 red zone touchdowns, and a red zone touchdown rate above the league average rate of around 23%.

Player

Targets

Receptions

Touchdowns

TD %

Donte Moncrief

10

8

6

60.0%

Doug Baldwin

10

9

5

50.0%

Cameron Brate

13

8

6

46.2%

Michael Thomas

11

8

5

45.5%

Mike Evans

15

7

6

40.0%

Jordy Nelson

26

17

10

38.5%

Hunter Henry

13

8

5

38.5%

Anquan Boldin

16

12

6

37.5%

Allen Robinson

16

8

6

37.5%

Antonio Gates

14

6

5

35.7%

Theo Riddick

14

11

5

35.7%

Davante Adams

15

10

5

33.3%

Kyle Rudolph

17

11

5

29.4%

Michael Crabtree

18

10

5

27.8%

Positive Regression Candidates

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton has been a massive disappointment. He ranks just 15th in scoring at quarterback, but has been especially horrific in three of the last four weeks.

He has completed just 52 of his last 121 passes over the past month (42.9%), and hasn't supplemented this atrocity with his legs, totaling just 56 rushing yards and one touchdown over the same timespan.

Newton and the Carolina Panthers do face the Washington Redskins this week, who are below-average against the pass. It has become hard to trust Cam lately, but a lot of top-flight passers are in awful matchups, so you could do worse than starting Newton.

Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Spencer Ware's production has dipped over the past few games, which likely coincides with never having handled this type of volume in his career before and starting left guard Parker Ehinger's season-ending injury a few weeks ago.

Despite all of that, Ware has had some poor touchdown luck. Last Thursday, he out-carried Charcandrick West 20 to 2, but it was West who punched in the goal-line touchdown. Ware's volume continues to be there, and he keeps getting goal-line opportunities -- things just haven't broken his way. At some point, they will.

As discussed here on numberFire this week, he ranks first among Washington pass-catchers in snaps played, targets, catches and is just 31 yards behind Jamison Crowder for the team lead in yards.

He isn't a flashy name, but he's a high-volume option connected to one of the league's most prolific passing attacks. Despite the volume, Garcon has scored just three times, including once inside the red zone despite 12 targets inside the 20. He's a good bet for positive touchdown regression.

The Arizona Cardinals will play the New Orleans Saints, who, while improving, are not known for their defensive prowess. Considering that the tight end position has been a complete disaster, streamers could do a lot worse than Gresham this week and for the remainder of the season.

This chart shows the running backs who have 15 or more red zone carries and 5 or fewer rushing touchdowns inside the 20 -- again sorted by touchdown rate.

Player

Red Zone Carries

Red Zone Touchdowns

Red Zone TD%

Tim Hightower

21

1

4.8%

Jerick McKinnon

16

1

6.3%

Darren Sproles

15

1

6.7%

Mark Ingram

23

2

8.7%

Spencer Ware

23

3

13.0%

Devontae Booker

21

3

14.3%

Frank Gore

27

4

14.8%

Lamar Miller

27

4

14.8%

Doug Martin

20

3

15.0%

Todd Gurley

26

4

15.4%

C.J. Anderson

23

4

17.4%

Matt Jones

17

3

17.6%

Isaiah Crowell

22

4

18.2%

Robert Kelley

22

4

18.2%

Jordan Howard

24

5

20.8%

Jay Ajayi

23

5

21.7%

Terrance West

23

5

21.7%

Christine Michael

20

5

25.0%

Cam Newton

15

5

33.3%

This table shows players with at least 10 red zone targets who have a red zone touchdown rate below the league average rate of around 23%.