Transcription

1 ENHANCEMENT OF CABLE TV IN BHUTAN: ITS TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS MODEL

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction, Methodology and Disclaimer Background & Current Situation: History: Growth of Cable TV in Bhutan Cable TV: Current Business Model Technology Services Content Business Structure Major Drawbacks of Current Cable TV system Technology Services Content Business Structure Major Challenges faced by the Cable Operators Remedial Measures along with Recommendations by the Cable Operators (Based on the current challenges faced by them) State of Broadcast Digitization and its Standards Existing Regulatory Framework: BICMA and its Roles Threats to Cable TV in Bhutan Current Threat: Direct to Home (DTH) TV Future Challenge: Steaming contents through OTT and IPTV Future Threat: Mobile TV through 4G & LTE Future Scopes for Cable TV Industry in Bhutan Digital Migration Fiber Optics Backbone Connectivity in Bhutan At a Glance: A simple SWOT Analysis of Cable TV Digitization The Road Map for Cable TV Industry: Pre-requisites and Enabling Factors International Experiences Cable has the potential to compete with DTH Infrastructure and Architecture: Technical Options at Hand Future Cable TV Standard Indicative Cost of Setting Up a Digital MSO The Road Map for Cable TV Industry: Business Models Priority 1: Consolidation of Existing Cable Operators into a Single MSO with all LCOs as shareholders Rationale The Business Model and Choice of Technology Step One: Formal call for expression of interest by the Authority for formation of digital MSO by the cable operators' association Step Two: Formation of formal cable operators' association Step Three: Presentations on the choice of technology to the Authority by the association Step Four: Negotiation for government incentives Step Five: Formal proposal for digital MSO license and granting of the same by the Authority Step Six: Phase I - Deployment of digital video service in the core Thimphu areas Step Seven: Phase II - MSO transmits its first digital signals over OPGW to Phuntsholing Step Eight: Phase III - Deployment to other dzongkhags 28 2 P age

3 Role of BICMA: Licensing, Pricing and Regulatory framework Government Incentives for Digitization Tentative Timeline for Digitization Priority 2: A single regulated MSO with digital head-end system with national permit Priority 3: The Upcoming Private TV broadcaster as MSO The Way Forward and Conclusion BICMA's Initiatives to Conduct Pilot/Demonstration Projects on Digital System 32 Appendix 1: A Sample Digital Headend Solution 33 Appendix 2: Tentative Roadmap for Digitization of Cable TV in Bhutan 37 Acronyms 41 References 42 3 P age

4 1. Introduction, Methodology and Disclaimer This study entitled "Enhancement of Cable TV services in Bhutan: Its Technology and Business Model" attempts to look at the various aspects of cable TV industry in Bhutan. M/S idruk Consultancy is entrusted by Bhutan Infocomm and Media Authority (BICMA) with the responsibility to thoroughly study, within a period of three months, the ground reality in the cable TV businesses in the country. The study aims to identify all aspects of CATV (Community Access Television) such as its history, shortcomings, the emerging environment and its related opportunities, increasing threats due to rapid technical innovations, compare with the global and regional growth in similar businesses and finally come up with a realistic road map for the future. The main methodology adopted looks at both the supply and demand side of the businesses identifying all the strengths of the current system, apparent weaknesses both within and outside of cable operators' domains as well as existing government's policies, perceived as well as actual threats and opportunities in cable businesses in Bhutan. Starting with independent sampled surveys covering more than 14 dzongkhags, the study followed with the compilation and review of all available literature, consultations with relevant stakeholders and a workshop consultation at a later stage with the representatives of the cable operators and other stakeholders. Meanwhile, several attempts are made to identify relevant best practices in other countries across the globe. The main concern of the study is to present a strategic plan for the foreseeable future to ensure, as far as possible, a smooth transition of the current predominantly analog based cable business model into the more efficient and preferred digital based model. This transition needs to be undertaken in order to catch up technologically with the global transition into digitization thereby not depriving the Bhutanese households of the many advantages of such developments. It is of vital importance to note here that the findings, critical analysis, and subsequent recommendations in this report are entirely those of M/S idruk Consultancy in its capacity as a local consultant having undertaken the study entirely as a neutral entity and thereby, do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of either the government agencies, the cable operators or any other consulted stakeholders. 2. Background & Current Situation: 2.1. History: Growth of Cable TV in Bhutan. When it comes to the consumption of ICT services in Bhutan, consumption of television services definitely comes at the top. Ever since the legalization of TV in 1999, the growth in this industry particularly fueled by the rapid emergence of cable TV operators have been substantial. The Bhutan Information and Media Impact Study (BIMIS), 2013 shows that majority of Bhutanese households today own a TV set with 79% of rural households and 68% of urban households possessing TV sets at their homes. The report further notes that the numbers of TV sets ownership have increased steadily from 47,125 in 2008 to 74,846 in 2012 thereby denoting a huge and rising popularity of this media in the country. 4 P age

5 Before the legalization of TV, most Bhutanese households, especially in the urban areas, owned analog TV sets with either VCR player or VCD/DVD players and were dependent on video rental houses to watch mostly Bollywood and Hollywood films at their homes. At the time, it was a thriving business for these video rental houses. However, the legalization of TV was followed by emergence of the cable TV operators started initially by Sigma, closely followed by Norling cables in Thimphu. Similar set ups were established gradually in mostly urban and semi-urban settings of other dzongkhags. The Bhutanese consumers welcomed the cable TV and saw them consuming the numerous channels entirely sourced from India, which gradually led to the closure of video parlours. The cable service also meant fewer expenses by the households since at Nu. 200 per month (then), each household would receive more than 40 channels as compared to an average of Nu. 600 on video rentals every month. The immediate growth of the cable industry, while generally lauded, was not efficient. The cable operators started their businesses in their own locality and were fragmented as was in the neighboring India. However, unlike India where there were many cases of un-registered local cable operators (LCO), because of relatively very small market and areas of operations, all cable operators were registered properly and effectively regulated in Bhutan. Nevertheless, with little or no technical expertise but with a drive to tap this new opportunity, cable operators found themselves initially making investment in wrong technologies such as buying wrong or inferior cables, short-sighted cabling plans, wrong headend equipments etc. On the other hand, because of their fragmented business model, the Indian TV program suppliers took advantage of the situation and were charging unreasonable and ad-hoc fees to each cable operator. In absence of a competent government agency then, the government could only do very little initially to enhance the effective growth of this industry. Driven by market forces and inefficient negotiations with the Indian program suppliers, the cable operators eventually formed an association among themselves called Association of Private Cable Operators (APCO) to stand as one collective voice when negotiating with Indian TV service providers. This has effectively helped all cable operators towards receiving a uniform rate for the channels obtained from India. It is still the main practice of obtaining TV signals from India today. Within a span of 14 years since 1999, Cable TV has become a well-founded business venture in Bhutan. The BICMA annual report 2012 notes that except for Gasa dzongkhag, all other dzongkhags now have commercial cable television operators with multiple operators in major urban centers. There are 63 cable operators providing various television facilities but mostly through an analog system where television programs are distributed as radio (RF) signals through coaxial cables. The licensed operators, as of January 2014, are as follows: Licensed Cable Operators in Bhutan M/s Cable Sat Club (Phuntsholing M/s Norling Cable TV (Thimphu) M/s Tshela Cable Service (Phuntsholing) M/s Sigma Cable Service (Paro) M/s SKD Cable TV Service (Samtse) M/s Karma Cable, Chukha M/s R.G Cable Service, Gomtu. M/s Lekey Cable Network, Haa. M/S Yuden Cable Service,Tsirang. M/S Punab Cable, Punakha. 5 P age

7 Household Access to Television, BLSS Cable TV DTH TV Cable TV: Current Business Model Technology Most operators use satellite dishes to downlink both the Free to Air (FTA) and pay channels, which are then fed to integrated receivers and decoders (IRD). The signal outputs from the receivers and the IRDs are then modulated and fed into fiber (in larger towns like Thimphu and Phuntsholing) or along the coaxial cables and distributed to the subscribers' premises using certain number of amplifiers along the routes. territory. In terms of obtaining signals, most cable operators obtain their TV signals through APCO and India. While the channels obtained through APCO follows the usual and proper procedures, the 'backdoor' Indian source is mainly for obtaining the SONY packages since it has become illegal to be used outside of Indian It has also been noted during the visits to the LCOs in the dzongkhags that the unforeseen growth of Direct to Home (DTH) in the country has tempted even some of the cable operators resorting to sourcing TV signals from DTH much to the dismay of other cable operators who receive their signals legally (albeit at a higher price) through APCO. With regard to the actual network architecture, while the last mile is generally connected by copper-based coaxial cables carrying analog RF signals connecting 7 P age

8 directly to the TV sets at subscribers' homes, some cable operators have already installed fiber optics cables as backbone connection in their network. In this regard, the current model can be classified almost as hybrid architecture. As will be explained later, this system is crucial for a smoother transition to deployment of digital system in the future. In order to ensure uniformity of the services provided, almost all of the equipments at the headends were approved and monitored by BICMA. However, the subscribers' general views are that the quality of TV signals is still at best satisfactory and are generally perceived as 'poor' in most cases. Some of the customers of cable services opined that the LCOs are not at all consistent in their delivery of programs Services One of most striking observations was the vast differences in the number of channels available to the subscribers across the kingdom even though the monthly fee paid by each subscriber is the same (currently fixed at Nu. 300 per month). The number of channels ranges from as low as below 10 in some localities to 65 in others. The following table presents the current number of channels provided by some of the cable operators in the country Number of Channels Provided by Selected Cable Operators Channels Yuden Cable Gaki Phuntsho Karung Cable RG Cable Yoezer Cable KR Cable SD Cable Druejom Dargay Cable Tshela SAT SKD Yewong J Choda Phapa ST Cable SNS Tashi Rapten TD Cable Tshering Dema Dawa Cable JN Cable Damnyen USD Yeshi Darjeeling Kelzang Content Since the entire delivery system is based on the analog model, the subscriber has no choice but to accept the entire signal package for a flat fee of Nu. 300 per month Business Structure Today, most cable operators are functioning as single business entity operating star-based cable network architecture in their respective areas. The sizes of the LCOs in Bhutan are directly correlated to the local population and range from more than 5,000 subscribers in major cities to as little as five 8 P age

9 subscribers in places like Nganglam. For cases with very little subscriber base, it was found out that the LCO has set up their businesses in anticipation of upcoming new town settlements in the near future. The reported number of subscribers might also be incorrect since it is a typical nature of analog based cable operators to under-declare their actual number of subscribers. Our interviews were no exceptions either. The cable Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) in Bhutan, while comparable to India, is also one of the lowest globally as compared to, for instance, approximately Nu. 3,360 in the United States. However, the obvious reason for the high ARPU in the western countries are because of substantial revenue generated through cable TV digitization which enabled the provision of value added services such as broadband Internet, Video on demand and Internet telephony (triple play features). This could very well be the most practical transition in the near future where the Bhutanese customers can benefit from better and wider choices of cable services while the cable operators themselves generate more revenue from these value added services Major Drawbacks of Current Cable TV system While the reaches of cable services have increased over the years, there are notable drawbacks especially when viewed from the perspective of ongoing transitional trends in other countries Technology Most LCO owners in the country have little or no technical knowledge when it comes to effective troubleshooting or deployment of the cable services. Some of the cable proprietors are illiterate and are entirely dependent on the available technical persons in their dzongkhags. For instance, the LCO in Trashiyangtse is entirely dependent on the IT unit of the dzongkhag administration whenever they face technical problems. Lack of technical expertise and awareness of the emerging technological innovations among most of the cable operators in the dzongkhags clearly depicts that they are incapable of making a realistic long-term plan for their businesses Services One of the prominent observations was the disparity in the delivery of services. As mentioned earlier, the numbers of channels as well as the quality of channels are not uniform across the country. Added to this are the drawbacks of capacity constraints of the coaxial cables. Most coaxial cables limit the maximum number of channels up to 100. While 100 channels look as more than necessary, an unexpected challenge facing the cable operators in the country are from the DTH which provides far more channels of better quality than their analog cables because of the latter's digital system. In order to compete effectively against the DTH, offering similar or more channels than DTH is viewed as one of the strategic solutions. Unfortunately, unless cable operators do not digitize their current distribution networks, there seems to be no foreseeable alternatives to compete with DTH. Finally, one of the most important drawbacks of the current system is its inability to provide value added services. In midst of technological advancement everywhere in the world, Bhutanese population has full 9 P age

10 right to obtain any ICT facilities that are feasible to be provided in the country. From the ground up, the analog-based system was not designed for providing additional value added services such as HDTV, Video on demand, broadband Internet, educational channels etc. There are certain technologies which can provide such services through the present analog system but the efforts and resources needed to achieve it is deemed too cumbersome while threatening to make the current system even more complicated and not future proof as compared to complete digitization. In any case, more percentage of the population are becoming aware of the emerging technologies day by day and it will be only a matter of time before they start demanding such services at their premises or they may be tempted to consume alternative entertainment contents provided by new players in the market. If this happens, there is a dearth of mass or notable cases of cable 'cord-cutting' thereby effectively ruining all the future business prospects of cable operators in the country Content Lack of choice for the viewers is another inherent disadvantage of analog distribution system and Bhutan is no exception where the consumers have to accept the entire package whether they like it or not. BICMA has a certain must have channels package which are mentioned under section 2.8 below. Almost all channels are of Indian origins that are meant for the Indian viewers and therefore, are filled with the usual advertisements targeted for Indian market Business Structure There is the issue of non-addressability. Due to a single direction flow of traffic in an analog signals system, there is no straightforward method for the government or any monitoring agency to know exactly how many subscribers are there in each locality. This apparently leads to under-reporting of the actual number of subscribers. In one of the recent developments, as a counter measure to this and to understand the customers' views on current facilities, BICMA has been conducting several surveys which at least gives a near realistic number of subscribers. The open and transparent licensing policy of the government in view of creating a level playing field for all has not created the optimum condition in those areas where the numbers of potential subscribers are very low. This has generated new entrants that threaten to fragment the already small market and thereby creating an unhealthy environment of conducting cable businesses. The licensing policy, therefore, needs to be revisited from this view in order to avoid more than necessary licenses in a given area of operation. Due to the non-dependable business model of cable operators in Bhutan, there is hardly any room for a common forum where all cable operators can function as one unit. The APCO was formed mainly as a counter measure to tackle the Indian counterparts and not necessarily to function as a representative body of all cable operators in the country. It was also found that not all cable operators are members of the association. In addition, there is no legal entity assigned to the association. Absence of a wellrecognized representative body of the entire cable operators will pose as one of the main obstacles in future especially when collective efforts are required to realize complete digitization of cable networks. Sadly, there are currently signs of non-cooperation and mistrusts among the cable operators themselves 10 P age

11 and some operators are unsure of how digitization will actually help or threaten their businesses. In this regard, there is a strong need for BICMA to carry out adequate awareness campaigns on digitization for the cable operators and to encourage formation of a single entity backed by all cable operators. The latter could pave way for an efficient forum where all issues can be solved at one sitting thereby saving time as well as prevent micro-management of conflict resolutions Major Challenges faced by the Cable Operators The following are some of the notable challenges currently faced by the cable operators in the country: a) Threat from DTH: The rising number of DTH users is a matter of concern for all. Most cable operators noted that the government made a huge mistake by announcing the path to DTH legalization in the media before conducting a proper and thorough in-house research and concludes that the DTH users have actually increased rapidly ever since that announcement; b) Non-payment of rental fees on time by subscribers; c) High cost of infrastructure sharing with BPC and Bhutan Telecom: Cable operators opined that while the current rate of Nu.10/month per pole sounds reasonable on paper, it usually takes a sizeable chunk of their revenues every year; d) Lack of loan and tax exemptions while buying equipments: Most cable operators felt that there is no tax exemptions on their equipments reasoning that all equipments that are imported by them are not for resale in the market but directly used in order to provide better quality of TV services to their customers; e) Lack of technical expertise: Even though the rule on cable TV operations set by BICMA requires a technically qualified staff for every 250 subscribers, most cable operators are challenged in this area. As mentioned earlier, they have to rely on the available IT expertise in their areas whenever they face severe technical problems; f) Natural Disasters: Destruction of equipments by natural disasters especially in summer seasons: This is usually most prominent in the southern dzongkhags where lightning during monsoon season destroy their equipments almost on a regular basis every year; and g) No scope of expansion beyond the urban settings due to highly scattered settlement pattern: This is seen as a huge challenge by both the government as well as the cable operators themselves. Nevertheless, one optimistic development is the availability of the fibers to the gewog centers, which would encourage some of the cable operators to tap the nearby rural households from these centers Remedial Measures along with Recommendations by the Cable Operators (Based on the current challenges faced by them) The following are some of the remedial measures including the recommendations by the cable operators themselves: a. Issue of DTH: As one of the biggest threats to their business, most cable operators recommends that the DTH services be either banned or regulated in the country. One of the reasons for the 11 P age

12 growth of DTH was its mobility and much higher quality of digital signals as compared to the analog ones. BICMA is currently undertaking a study on DTH and its future. b. Issue of entertainment tax: There seems to be an inherent misconception when it comes to entertainment tax. Most cable operators are surprisingly unaware that the entertainment tax is levied on the subscribers and not them and thereby strongly recommends that this tax be reduced or exempted. There is a strong need for clarification by the Authority or Department of Revenue and Customs with regard to this issue of entertainment tax. c. Legalization of Sony package: The other recommendation concerns the legalization of Sony packages through higher levels of dialogues between the two government of India and Bhutan based on the friendly relationship that the two countries enjoy. d. Technical Assistance: Most cable operators voice lack of well-trained staff with them and recommend that regular training opportunities in skills enhancement are made available for them. e. Review Pole Sharing Fees: Since most LCOs opined that pole sharing fees takes away a sizeable amount of their revenue when calculated annually, it is high time for reviewing whether the current rate of Nu. 10 per pole per month is levied with much heavier impact on the LCOs than the Bhutan Power Corporation or Bhutan Telecom. The rules on pole sharing allows for such a revision from time to time. f. Review tax incentives and loan facilities: There is a strong need to review the current taxation policy, especially when importing cable TV equipments that are directly going to be used for effective service delivery to the general households. In addition, since the cable operators are constrained at times due to lack of bank loans to provide additional coverage and better services, there is a need to facilitate, wherever necessary, to make the LCOs avail such loan facilities. In the digitization phase, the success would entirely depend on if the bank loans are available or not by that time. g. Compensation support during natural disasters: A form of compensation support for damage of equipments during natural disasters is a viable solution for those cable operators facing such problems. However, proper verification procedures should be well established beforehand in order to avoid any false claims. Another option would be to add a clause (in the licensee agreement) that requires any cable operator to insure their equipments with the insurance companies. h. Incentives on rural connections: Since the ultimate government policy is to ensure universal access to ICT facilities to the entire population, it is recommended that some incentives are provided to the cable operators who connect the households that are designated as rural households by the Thromdes or the dzongkhag administrations. The incentives can be in the form of subsidies on equipments purchases for such purposes, cost sharing of the last mile connectivity and tax holidays. This will be a crucial element during the later years of digitization because without government support, the cable operators will not be keen to connect these rural households from economic benefits point of view. i. Separate Fee Structure: With regard to fees and sales tax, cable operators feel that there can be a separate fee structure for rural and urban subscribers while the BST can be imposed based on the number of subscribers. 12 P age

13 2.6. State of Broadcast Digitization and its Standards Bhutan is apparently one of the last few countries with analog broadcast system. While the in-house production of contents of the only broadcaster- BBS itself is digital and even the uplinking of the same, the transmission standard is still in analog form. Supported by ITU, two exercises on digital migration (focused on broadcast system) in Bhutan have already taken place and has proposed January 2017 as the deadline for Analog Switch Off of BBS channels. BBS is currently in active phase of this conversion process and reasoned that most of the transmitters can be easily upgraded to enable digital transmission which is currently proposed to be of most recent generation of DVB-T 2 standard Existing Regulatory Framework: BICMA and its Roles Ever since legalization of TV and emergence of cable industry, there was an immediate need for an effective regulatory body to ensure that the growth in this industry is properly monitored and that the sudden introduction of foreign TV programs is not detrimental against protecting the country's unique cultural heritage. It was felt that if unregulated, cable TV could create adverse effects on Bhutanese people's (especially the youths) attitudes and behaviors. In this light, BICMA as a regulatory Authority was established in 2000 to provide a modern technologyneutral and service sector-neutral regulatory mechanism guided mainly by the principles of universal and affordable access of ICT services including cable TV services to the entire population in the country. BICMA as an enabler of efficient ICT service delivery in the country is mainly guided by the policies of convergence of emerging technologies, open and transparent licensing framework, encouragement of investment as well as competition in the private sector while ensuring that the security, national integrity, economic and socio-cultural interests of Bhutan are fully protected. The radio communication and TV Division within the Authority is responsible for licensing and regulating the cable TV services besides being mandated to manage the scarce natural radio-frequency spectrum. With regard to cable services, BICMA conducts regular surveys on cable industry in order to better understand the ground reality besides carrying out field visits to ensure proper delivery of the services to the subscribers. In order to ensure a basic TV package for any cable subscriber, BICMA has prescribed the minimum number of channels as follows: BBS channels, 1 News (Pay Channel), 4 entertainment (Pay Channels), 1 Children (Pay Channel), 1 Sports (Pay Channel), 1 Educational (Pay Channel), 2 Free to air (FTA) and 1 Local Channel. While many cable operators are of the view that BICMA should not limit their total number of channels to 68 as reported in print media 3, BICMA clarified that there is actually no upper limit on number of channels but that the cable operators should come up with 'legally obtained' 4 channels for approval. 2 Digital Video Broadcasting-Terrestrial. It is the European based consortium standard which transmits compressed digital audio, digital video and other data in an MPEG transport stream, using coded orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (COFDM or OFDM) modulation. An extended extension is the DVB-T2 (T2 stands for Second Generation Terrestrial), which transmits compressed digital audio, video, and other data in "physical layer pipes" (PLPs), using OFDM modulation with concatenated channel coding and interleaving. (Sourced from Wikipedia) 3 Kuensel, Nov issue: "No headway on DTH developments in India". 4 Due to cheaper but illegal source of TV contents available through DTH, cable operators intended to use the same service to increase their number of channels, but which is unacceptable for BICMA to authorize. 13 P age

14 This issue will no longer be relevant once the digital deployment starts since the pay-per view (a-la-carte offering) feature of the digital system will ensure optimal consumption of TV programs. 3. Threats to Cable TV in Bhutan 3.1 Current Threat: Direct to Home (DTH) TV In India, DTH is one of the biggest winners due to digitization and today accounts for 82 percent of all digital TV subscribers. This successful growth of DTH in India has negatively affected the cable industries in the neighboring countries and Bhutan is no exception. One of the major areas of unforeseen concerns is the growth of DTH subscribers in the country. Major urban centers such as Thimphu, Chukha (probably centered in Phuntsholing), Paro, Sarpang and Wangdiphodrang show much higher subscribers of Cable TV than DTH. However, dzongkhags such as Trashigang, Samtse and Punakha show smaller margins between the DTH and Cable TV subscribers with Dagana and Pemagatshel showing even higher number of DTH TV subscribers than Cable TV subscribers. A recently completed independent study by BICMA titled "DTH: Status and Way Forward for Bhutan" notes about 5,438 DTH users in 189 of 205 gewogs in Bhutan. Therefore, the actual number of DTH users will be higher if we account for the remaining gewogs. This has serious repercussions to all sectors of cable businesses. Financially, this indicates an out flow of Rs million (calculated at mean monthly fee of Rs. 300) to India every year and without any tax returns to 14 P age

15 the government. DTH is a threat not only to the cable operators but if they start providing broadband Internet services (they are currently limited by licensing policy only), DTH might be a serious threat to the ISPs too. The logic is that, when DTH can transmit numerous (usually more than 100 channels) digital video signals at such an affordable price, the same will be true for any data service. The adjacent figure shows the upcoming plan of providing broadband Internet services by Airtel, one of the DTH operators in India. The emergence of DTH is today a serious challenge for BICMA since it is impossible to regulate the contents provided by DTH. Despite several attempts at legalizing DTH which required the BBS channels to be included in the DTH package, it was found out that the procedure to do so is not as simple as it looked in the first place. Given the small market of television viewers in Bhutan, it will be very difficult to attract a national DTH or similar service operator within the country. The same BICMA report highlights that the satellite fees alone for uplinking2 channels will amount to Nu. 1.9 million each year along with 5% service charge denoting that it is not feasible economically to undertake a DTH business in the country Future Challenge: Streaming contents through OTT and IPTV "This is the future, streaming is the future. TV will not be TV in five years from now...everyone will be streaming" -- Beau Willimon 5 One of the immediate observations in many countries especially in the west is what is commonly called as 'cordcutting' whereby subscribers of cable TV are no longer using the cable TV services opting instead to use the emerging online technologies such as over the top technology (OTT) and Internet Protocol Television (IPTV). Both systems deliver television programs via Internet, instead of the traditional terrestrial, satellite signal and cable TV system. OTT delivers the contents from the provider/content aggregator directly to the viewer using the open network (open ecosystem) while IPTV also delivers the same contents but using the more dedicated and managed network (walled garden ecosystem). While not an issue of P age

16 immediate concern for Bhutan - a country with very small market base, the OTT and IPTV services are growing steadily in most of the developed countries and changing the video consumption habits of the upcoming generations. The number of global IPTV subscribers has grown from 28 million in 2009 to 83 million in Popular examples of OTT are Netflix, Hulu, Sky Go, Lovefilm etc. while examples of IPTV are U-verse and PrismTV. One of the primary reasons is that Netflix as well as other services have become a total package, featuring an endless amount of television and movies for a cheaper cost. The latter is the key to why people are switching over. This so called 'binge watching' of television program is a growing trend in western countries and has the capability to enter Bhutanese markets. Cable depending on what package a customer has is a minimum of $50 per month with an upwards of $150 per month. Netflix, Hulu and other services only cost a customer between $8 and $16 per month. That s a big difference and is why people are switching over to OTT and IPTV. Even within Bhutan, of the two largest ISPs in Bhutan, Druknet (the other being TCell) has been laying fiber optics cables to the curb (FTTC) in urban areas like Thimphu in view of the gradual introduction of better broadband services and if market condition looks favorable, Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) in the near future Future Threat: Mobile TV through 4G & LTE A recent development in the mobile technology is the deployment of 4G LTE (Long Term Evolution) standard which is entirely dedicated to data services. With an average data transfer rate of 80 mbps (the claimed peak downlink rate is as high as 300 mbps), this standard has all the potential to change the entertainment facilities in mobile industry. The process is fueled even faster by rapid emergence of affordable smartphones with large screens which encourages consumption of video contents through this medium. This can be a huge threat for cable industry since most users then would never feel the need to view TV programs at home. The convenience of mobility, access to privacy and freedom of choice of contents only makes it an even more attractive alternative to cable TV. The only deterring factor would be the actual price of the 4G Internet services which currently is more expensive than the cable services. However, the trend clearly shows that not only will the price drop gradually, the benefits derived from 4G services would actually offset the costs charged by them thereby potentially changing the consumption pattern of the users. 4. Future Scopes for Cable TV Industry in Bhutan 4.1. Digital Migration In view of the emergence of newer technologies in the form of digital signals which are not only efficient in bandwidth usage but also provide much better TV viewing experiences for the consumers, it will be a huge risk for the cable operators to keep assuming that their current analog based systems will be the choice of Bhutanese consumers for a long time. The current business model is simply not sustainable in P age

17 the long run. Even globally, with or without government intervention, it is being observed that the consumers themselves keep moving on and adapting to newer and better technologies as they keep emerging in the market. Even though digitization means much higher capital investments, there are many advantages associated with digitization and offers immense opportunities for the cable operators in the long run. In addition, Bhutanese households will enjoy much better quality as well as diversity of ICT services right in their homes. Some notable advantages that are relevant to the cable operators as well as the households are: Much clearer picture quality but more importantly, more number of channels will be available for the subscribers. For instance, digitization uses bandwidth efficient digital modulation techniques such as Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) which enables data rates in excess of 56Mb/s to be transmitted within 8MHz band. QAM coupled with digital compression technologies such as the mpeg-2 and mpeg-4 standards enable, in theory, thousands of video channels to be transmitted, for example, through a 800 Mhz bandwidth, clearly indicating that this is the future proof solution as of now; The future trend is now HD (high definition) contents which offers a whole new viewing experiences for the TV viewers and it is only through digitization that HDTV can be delivered affordably; The biggest benefit for the cable operators will be increase in their revenues by providing value added services such as high-speed broadband Internet, Video ondemand, Interactive TV, Time shifted TV and Interactive gaming. In fact, providing broadband Internet services through cable is the only alternative for the cable operators to stay in business in the future. This is evident from practices in western nations where if not for high-speed broadband Internet services, cable operators would have already gone out of business as revolutionary alternatives in the form of OTT (Netflix, Hulu, Roku etc.) and IPTV are available to the customers at much cheaper prices. Since most OTT and IPTV services depend on the high-speed Internet access, the cable operators were able to stay in business by Internet access (as against their traditional supply of TV contents). This could be one area where the current cable operators in Bhutan can focus in the digital are in order to sustain their businesses; and Cable operators as well as the government will be benefited through a very transparent system enabled by digitization where it is feasible to not only determine the actual number of subscribers at any given point of time but also know of what services/packages these subscribers have obtained from the cable operators. Digitization of the cable network as well as the headend system is the inevitable next step because there will be simply no more production of analog equipments which might force all cable operators, whether big or small, to upgrade their network to digital or risk losing their businesses to new players in the market. Unfortunately, given the small comparative sizes of most cable operators, the path to digitization might also be out of reach financially for most of the small players in the dzongkhags. Most digitization phase involves higher levels of investment at the headends, purchase of set-top boxes and laying of fiber cables. This will be elaborated further in the road map section below. (Note: a practical approach to setting up a digital headend system is attached, as an example, in Appendix 1). 17 P age

18 4.2. Fiber Optics Backbone Connectivity in Bhutan Unique to Bhutan, there exists a huge fiber optics based national network which is yet to be utilized optimally. Under the national broadband project spearheaded by the Ministry of Information and Communications, Bhutan has achieved commendable fiber connections all over the country. All 20 dzongkhags and more than 185gewogs now have ADSS connections 7. Except for Gasa which has a STM-1 (34 Mbps) connection, most other dzongkhags are already connected with either a STM-16 (2.5Gbps) or the STM-64 (10 Gbps) capacity. This facility alone would justify for a rapid drive towards digitization in both broadcast as well as the distribution system of the TV industry. Fiber lasts much longer than most other alternatives and it in itself has almost unlimited capacity thereby proving as an affordable future proof technology. An added advantage of fibers is that they are unattractive targets for cable thefts as compared to other copper-basedcables whichhave been succumbing to cable thefts occasionally. The following diagram below shows the status of existing and planned fiber optics based network in the country as of November Fig: Existing and Planned OPGW and ADSS. (Source: DITT, MoIC, 2013) The table below and the following diagram show the existing optical fiber cable (OPGW) connections as per the National Broadband Masterplan. 7 BPC Annual Report, p P age

19 Type of Link Connectivity Capacity Status and Remarks OPGW Link (24 fiber) OPGW Link (24 fiber) OPGW Link (24 fiber) Thimphu Paro Thimphu Wangdue Simtokha Rurichu 155Mbps 155Mbps 155Mbps Over 66kV power transmission lines. Extended to Haa. Over 66kV power transmission Lines Over 220kV Power Transmission Lines. BT is using 4 fibers to link Thimphu to Wangdue. OPGW Link (24 fiber) Thimphu Phuentsholing 622Mbps Via Simtokha, Khasadrapchu, Tsimasham, Gedu and Pasakha 1 adjacent diagram. Boundary may not be current in this area STM-64 STM-16 STM-4 radio STM-1 5 While the ownership of the fibers still lie with the government, the allocation agreement between the MoIC and BPC shows that out of the 24 pairs of fiber cables, BPC was allocated three pairs in return for installation of the fibers over their power lines and to the two telecommunications companies i.e. Bhutan Telecom and Tashi Cell. The current transmission routes of OPGW are illustrated in the The current policy dictates that in order to qualify for one of these limited fibers, one has to have an ISP license with national reach and has to lease the same from either Bhutan Telecom or Tashi Cell. There is a need for review on fiber allocation policy by MoIC since it should not be restricted to ISPs alone and that other ICT player such as the future MSO with equal, if not bigger, reach and impacts can be considered. The ultimate solution for the future: Of the many different protocols and standards of fiber-optics signal distribution, the Bhutan National Broadband Masterplan recommends that the FTTx (fiber to the x) architecture should be the long-term goal of network architecture but acknowledges that the option is very costly and might take a long time to realize. Until then, following a gradual phase-wise deployment towards complete digitization will be most realistic approach given the lack of readiness as well as financial resources in current scenario. 19 P age

20 5. At a Glance: A simple SWOT Analysis of Cable TV Digitization Strength Experiences in cable TV businesses (but analog model only) Subscriber base is already there Most cable operators have deployed fiber optics network for their core backbone connections DTH OTT and IPTV 4G Technology Threat Weakness Fragmented businesses and lack of cooperation among cable operators APCO has no legal status Lack of financial resources Unskilled workforce Comparatively small market Opportunity Technical advances means better products at cheaper prices (Moore's Law) Extra revenues from valued added services Relaxed and supportive government policies Availability of strong fiber connections to the all dzongkhags and more than 185 gewogs It is evident from the above SWOT analysis that while there are notable inherent weaknesses as well as external threats, the opportunities and the advantages of current situation of cable operators themselves far outweigh those threats and weaknesses. The next section proposes as far as possible, a realistic road map for the cable industry based on the review of all current situations, the above SWOT analysis and the global trends. 6. The Road Map for Cable TV Industry: Pre-requisites and Enabling Factors 6.1. International Experiences It will be worthwhile to share some of the notable international experiences that are relevant to the current context in Bhutan. Consolidation of various ICT players leading to convergence of services seems to be the norm in recent years in many countries. It is evident, based on the experiences observed in many countries, that the crucial element for the sustainability of cable services lie in their flexibility and the adaptability to change according to the emerging technologies. The cable operators are no longer a single content provider but rather a content aggregator providing a variety of ICT services in order to stay in business. For instance, in the US, cable operators are generating more revenue because they made timely investment as well as network upgrades to provide broadband Internet access rather than depending on providing TV services alone. Today, most cable operators in the US are in fact earning more income through their broadband Internet services than TV services and even with the new and powerful entrants such as Netflix which could have easily shut down any cable TV only businesses didn't have any notable adverse affect on these cable companies. Interestingly, in UK, the cable telephony 20 P age

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