Aaron Paul of 'Breaking Bad'

Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"

Nomination Status: Two-time winner is a lock to return.

In His Favor: With wins in two of the past three years, plus a nomination in 2009, Aaron Paul is pretty much assured nominations this year and next year before "Breaking Bad" leaves us forever. And although I suggested last season that Paul really ought to be submitting himself as Lead Actor opposite Bryan Cranston, the first half of the show's fifth season moved Jesse Pinkman back into something more of a supporting capacity. That doesn't mean Paul wasn't at his very best in this episodes. Watch "Dead Freight" and "Buyout" and you'll see why I wouldn't quibble with a third Paul victory this year, even if I continue to pull for recognition for his sterling colleagues, particularly Jonathan Banks this year.

Working Against Him: Maybe Emmy voters will resent Paul for his teasing tweets about awesome episodes and scripts and whatnot? Or maybe they'll blame him for the misreporting of this summer's premiere? Yeah. Probably not. This one is in the bag.

I was looking at the ballot and wondering if Michael Cudlitz would've had a better chance for a nom if he'd submitted as lead. I was really struggling to fill out the 6 slots in the lead actor category with who I'd like to see there, whereas Supporting is incredibly deep.

Much as I love Peter Dinklage, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau really should get the GoT spot this year. I feel much the same way about Jonathan Banks over Aaron Paul. They were arguably just given better stuff to do but...God, they were awesome doing it. And they carried large portions of their respective seasons. Even if things were iffy in a given ep, you could count on the Jaime/Brienne scenes, or Mike's general world-weary awesomeness.

Mads Mikkelsen is still the nomination that would make me the happiest, but I remain in Save Hannibal! mode. Even though it has already been saved.

SMReyno - Is Best Actor thin? I haven't look at the ballot, but that category is usually a nightmare. I think Supporting has MUCH more depth, but I think that the top tier of Lead is so entrenched that it's really hard to imagine Cudlitz cracking that field either...

I really love your columns and the podcast with Sepinwall but I gotta ask you Daniel.... how can you call yourself a serious TV critic and not watch "Southland" which has been the best cop show since "The Shield"?

Kafka - VERY easily. I've seen episodes of "Southland." Many. And I respect "Southland." It's just not a show I've watched regularly because it's not a genre that is a favorite of mine. Some day, when time allows, I'll probably watch more, but on a week-to-week basis, police procedurals don't grip me. "The Shield" wasn't a show I watched regularly either. When I was able to marathon the entire series, I loved it, but in week-to-week installments, it just wasn't my thing.

Kafka - Plausible? But more likely, it'll just be added to my body of cultural knowledge. For years, I couldn't talk about "The Shield" and that was sad. Now I can talk about "The Shield" and that's happy! And even now, I know the aspects of "Southland" I've always enjoyed in the small doses I've watched, but I just can't discuss the show with any specific authority when it comes to things like this. I always like to discuss everything with as much authority as possible.

I'm really hoping some voters will notice Freddie Highmore's work. He is more accomplished in Bates Motel than in any of his previous film work and despite his accent fluctuations, he hits so many precise, honest moments. That Anthony Perkins smile should secure him a nomination on its own!

I do wonder at the network's positioning of him as supporting, however. This is always a point of contention during awards seasons, but it seems particularly egregious in this case. I think he surpasses Farmiga's acting and he carries just as many scenes.

So, not even a mention of Charles Dance as Tywin Lannister? It seems like every scene he's played in this show has been electric, be it him admonishing his children for their lecherous ways or going toe-to-toe with Diana Rigg's Lady Olenna Tyrell.And he was just about the best thing in the show last year as well.

Seriously, that is too bad. I would have loved to see him get some recognition, even if he's not playing very many notes on the character (there is a lot of contempt, disappointment and steely determination), he is playing each and every one expertly. And as I said: he's electric in every scene.

Matthew and Mary were the heart of Downton Abbey, but it was Matthew's quick smile and joyful optimism rather than Mary's constant brooding and sour disposition that made the pair an audience favorite. It was extremely brave of Dan Stevens to walk away from this mega hit and he deserves the Emmy in part for his chutzpah. But Mandy Patinkin in Homeland also deserves what should have been his last year.

I'd choose:-Mads Mikkelsen (maybe a longshot but damn if he isn't my #1 pick)-Walton Goggins (it's an absolute crime he doesn't get more love, and this was maybe his best season yet.)-Aaron Paul (honestly the most borderline of these picks, but it's ridiculous to assume he won't be nominated)-Peter Dinklage (wouldn't really pick him, but he'll get the nomination)-Mandy Patinkin (just pure gold)-Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (probably won't get it, but he easily topped Dinklage this year, for me, and shows have gotten two noms in this category before)

There's still numerous great candidates on the cusp of this - Vincent Kartheiser immediately comes to mind. It's definitely possible (even probably) that at least half of my choices won't make the cut. Too bad.