U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 12% from September

Oct. 11, 2012
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by Laura Lloyd

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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 654 million bus, down 44 million bus, or 6%, from 698 million bus as the September projection and down 89 million bus, or 12%, from 743 million bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 627 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 619 million bus, down 114 million bus, or 16%, from 733 million bus in September and down 369 million bus, or 37%, from the downwardly revised 988 million bus estimated in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 645 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 130 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 13%, from 115 million bus in September, but down 39 million bus, or 23%, from the upwardly revised 169 million bus estimated for this year.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average of trade estimates that was near 134 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus for 2012, up 1 million bus from September and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus for 2012-13, up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from September but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bus, down 3 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 315 million bus, up 95 million bus, or 43%, from September and up 151 million bus, or 92%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,338 million bus, up 95 million bus, or 8%, from September and up 156 million bus, or 13%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,150 million bus, down 50 million bus from September but up 100 million bus, or 10%, from 1,050 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,488 million bus, up 45 million bus from September and up 257 million bus, or 12%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.65@8.55 a bu, compared with $7.50@8.70 a bu projected in September and $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 195 million bus, down 78 million bus, or 29%, from 273 million bus in September and down 122 million bus, or 38%, from 317 million bus in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 189 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 19%, from 159 million bus in September and up 4 million bus from 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 170 million bus, up 2 million bus, or 1%, from 168 million bus in September and up 19 million bus, or 13%, from 151 million bus in 2012.

White wheat carryover was projected at 61 million bus in 2013, up 7 million bus from September but down 3 million bus from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 39 million bus, down 5 million bus from September but up 14 million bus, or 56%, from 25 million bus in 2012.

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 653.05 million tonnes, down 5.68 million tonnes from September and down 42.64 million tonnes, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 695.69 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 678.22 million tonnes, down 2.44 million tonnes from September and down 17.24 million tonnes, or 2%, from an upwardly revised 695.46 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 130.87 million tonnes, down 3.96 million tonnes from 134.83 million tonnes in September and down 25.65 million tonnes, or 16%, from an upwardly revised 156.52 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 173 million tonnes, down 3.71 million tonnes from 176.71 million tonnes in September and down 25.17 million tonnes, or 13%, from an upwardly revised 198.17 million tonnes in 2011-12.

“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 6.2 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production for Australia, Russia and EU-27,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Production for Australia is lowered 3 million tons as a continuation of dryness through September during critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop. Production for Russia is lowered 1 million tons reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat.”

U.S. corn production in 2012 was forecast at 10,706 million bus, down 21 million bus from 10,727 million bus in September and down 1,652 million bus, or 13%, from 12,358 million bus in 2011. Imports in 2012-13 were projected at 75 million bus, unchanged from September but up 47 million bus from 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,769 million bus, down 214 million bus, or 2%, from 11,983 million bus in September and down 1,745 million bus, or 13%, from 13,514 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,150 million bus, unchanged from September but down 412 million bus, or 9%, from an upwardly revised 4,562 million bus in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,850 million bus, unchanged from September (including corn for ethanol at 4,500 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,350 million bus, unchanged), but down 571 million bus, or 9%, from an upwardly revised 6,421 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,000 million bus for ethanol and 1,421 million bus for food and seed, both up from September).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,150 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 8%, from 1,250 million bus in September and down 393 bus, or 25%, from an upwardly revised 1,543 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.10@8.50 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $7.20@8.60 in September and a downwardly revised $6.22 in 2011-12.

U.S. 2012 soybean production was forecast at 2,860 million bus, up 226 million bus, or 9%, from 2,634 million bus in September but down 234 million bus, or 8%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011. Soybean imports were projected at 20 million bus, unchanged from September but up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,050 million bus, up 265 million bus, or 10%, from 2,785 million bus in September but down 275 million bus, or 8%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2,920 million bus, up 250 million bus, or 9%, from 2,670 million bus in September but down 235 million bus, or 7%, from a downwardly revised 3,155 million bus in 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1,540 million bus, up 40 million bus from September but down 163 million bus, or 10%, from a downwardly revised 1,703 million bus in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1,265 million bus, up 210 million bus, or 20%, from 1,055 million bus in September but down 95 million bus, or 7%, from an unchanged 1,360 million bus in 2011-12. Residual was raised 1 million bus from September to 26 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $14.25@16.25 a bu, down from $15@17 a bu projected in September and compared with an upwardly revised $12.50 a bu in 2011-12.

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