Crying Wolf?

We have all from time to time tried to help others, friends and family, by pointing them toward reality. For our troubles and efforts we have been viewed as the “squirrely” guy/gal with a tinfoil hat who see’s everything as a conspiracy. We have lost friends and even had family cringe when holiday get togethers were planned because no one wants to be exposed to our “craziness”. Worse than any disease or even leprosy, anyone spouting Austrian economics or even “common sense” (almost extinct today) has been shoved into the outcast corner by the mass delusional majority. Over the last few years, “theory after theory” has become fact after FACT after FACT! There can no longer be any question, conspiracy to delude and defraud has run rampant and is a day to day operation in the Western world.

Originally my thought was to write this piece about and around the perfect response, “but you do agree the government is bankrupt, right?“. I say this because almost anyone (in the U.S.), no matter what age, sex, religion, race or financial status will generally agree with this. For those who don’t agree, it is better to leave well enough alone, this is a subset living in their own delusional world.

For those who do agree “the government is broke”, they are broken down into basic subsets. There are those who “get it” fully. There are those who know the government is broke but don’t really understand what it means or the ramifications (they can’t connect the dots). Another group are those who agree and know in the back of their mind this is true …but they don’t REALLY believe it because they simply cannot …”it’s too awful to comprehend”. Then, we have another group, probably the largest of all, those who agree but think it really doesn’t matter. They may also believe no financial crisis will ever occur because “the government will never let it happen”. Let’s talk about this group next.

The “can’t happen here” crowd only need the dots connected for them. I believe it is best to ask them questions in an effort to lead them to their own answer and understanding. This is much better than lecturing or “telling” them because they will actually have to think to answer your questions.

Questions such as:

1. if the government is broke, how will they make good on their obligations such as payrolls, Social Security, food stamps, paying the military and most importantly paying on their debt? Forget the first four, “do you realize Treasury securities are what funds Social Security, your pension, the bank’s balance sheet which holds your money …AND what underlies the dollar itself?”!

2. If the above doesn’t work, you might ask if the economy currently “feels good”? Then ask, do you realize the federal government spends almost 20% of GDP (and their spending is “counted” as part of GDP). If they are broke and have to drastically cut back on spending, will the economy not shrink by the amount the government can no longer spend? Do you see without government spending, under any definition we would be in a depression greater than the 1930’s?

I don’t want to go through the entire exercise but please understand, “guiding” someone to their own conclusion which happens to be correct is best done with questions, MANY OF THEM. If you can, take two, three or even more philosophical roads to help them reach the same conclusion each time …the understanding will be that much more cemented in their mind when they finally do(hopefully) arrive!

Switching gears just a bit, we have seen the “mentality” change somewhat over the last year or so. Even the mainstream is showing some signs of a shift. This “shift” has even become evident amongst and within the “old boys club”. For example, who would have imagined Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria would ever ask for their gold back? Or Texas building its own depository and using the words “not” and “confiscate” in the legislation for proposed repatriation?

Several very well known and at one time mainstream money managers have publicly told of the dangerous situation. The latest is a bond manager who has gone entirely to cash, how’s this for putting a crash helmet on?

Just a few weeks ago, Bloomberg put out an article asking if China could gold back the yuan. This was significant because no news source (other than maybe Kitco) has been as bearish and slandering regarding gold than Bloomberg.

Going to the beginning and back to the top, who exactly was correct in 1999-2000? Who was correct from 2005-2008 about an impending crisis? The answer of course is the very same people screaming bloody murder today “the financial system will come apart from the seams”. Are those who were correct before, now “crying wolf”? Or are they saying the same things for the same reason and forecasting the same results as before? “They” (we) were not crazy then and are not crazy now. In fact, it is even much easier to see now than previous. As a side note if you recall, we heard in late 2008 and 2009, “who could have seen it coming”? Or, “no one could have seen it coming”. This is dead wrong! In fact, even within the mainstream press there was a concerted effort to silence the truth. For example, Greg Hunter while at CNN tried to warn of the banking collapse. He was told “don’t go there” and was rewarded by having his contract not renewed!

“Some” saw the dotcom bubble coming, more saw and warned of the 2008 crisis coming …and even more see this one coming. Not only are there more and louder voices today, the numbers are growing slowly but surely and even engulfing some main-streamers who used to laugh at “us tinfoilers”!

I know how difficult it is and has been. The financial landscape is perverted beyond recognition and any time you open your mouth, you are proven wrong. Gold goes down the following day along with a new high in stocks so you look “stupid”. You are not. “We” cannot make price, we can only tell the truth as we see it and suggest via common sense and logic the need to prepare for the worst. As I see it, the outcome is not in any doubt and becomes clearer each day. My fear is we are not in 2008 anymore, the coming collapse will change the world order to one unrecognizable to today. The U.S. is in fact “broke” as we spoke of at the beginning. The “realization” of this not only can happen but WILL happen. Sadly, because of how badly the U.S. has treated the world over these last years, we will be given no mercy when negotiating our bankruptcy. It will be a real live wolf at our door!

Regards, Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

29 Comments

David
on June 25, 2015 at 12:05 pm

In preparing myself, I ask who would I help in a worst case scenario. I won’t turn family away so I prepare for them to show up at my door. Unfortunately most people either don’t pay attention or just blow us off as you say.

Most Keynesians I have had conversations with just believe the govt can print to infinity with no repercussion. Asked how one deals with all the debt and loss of confidence that comes with it I get….well, uh, er, uh.

One thing I found that somewhat works for people I want to clue in is just start with the bad data. “Did you know factory orders were down YOY for the last 6 months?” That seems to get them open somewhat. Better than “hey idiot can you really not see this”? LOL

Bill Holter
on June 25, 2015 at 12:29 pm

the majority don’t even know what “factory orders” are…

David
on June 25, 2015 at 12:49 pm

True. I somewhat “adopted” a young lady trying to help her get on her feet a few years ago. She was around 2 of her friends one day and I asked her who the V.P. was. Not one of the 3 knew.

Glad guys like you and Andy are around filling in the blanks for the ones that see bad things coming.

Thanks for the pep talk Bill. Yes some day’s I do
feel like an idiot trying to encourage people to
protect their assets. I do have one question, why
does Kitco bash precious metals when they are a
bullion dealer? Is kitco being compensated by a
government agency or are they behind on there taxes
and being forced to trash metals? This is like a
eating establishment saying yes our food sucks, may
I take your order ? Thanks Bill, all the best.

Bill Holter
on June 25, 2015 at 12:31 pm

they have a “pooled” account and may possibly not have the metal?, they have been bearish metal all the way along.

OutLookingIn
on June 25, 2015 at 12:25 pm

I get a sense of more and more, of the rank and file “get it” than do the upper echelon, in either politics or business. So much so, that you also get a sense of an air of desperation emanating from TPTB, that they are losing control.

Continually poking the Russian bear with a sharp stick eg: stationing tanks etc. on their border, fomenting regime changes (as in the Ukraine) then sending in military assistance, and ratcheting up economic sanctions, will eventually elicit an escalation of their military response. This is what the TPTB want, so they may propagandize Putin and the Russian’s into even bigger boogie men, fomenting a war with the approval of the blind population.

Who is the “true” aggressor? Imagine if China stationed tanks and military “advisers” on the borders of Canada and Mexico? Would the American’s feel overtly threatened and take action? Damned right they would! So don’t be surprised when Russia takes action in this escalation of who will chicken out first!

The overriding question being; Will the loser’s of this game of chicken, kick over the game table and pull the nuclear trigger?

Bill Holter
on June 25, 2015 at 12:32 pm

all good questions.

Gil
on June 25, 2015 at 12:26 pm

Bill, 2 Nwo’s..? Are you of the belief that the East (BRICS) are controlled by the same powers that run the west? Sadly I think this might be true. After all Rothschild, Rockefeller et.all haven’t been running the show for centuries by accident.

“The U.S. is broke”,,,,,,,hummmm chilling when read without the periods.

Bill Holter
on June 25, 2015 at 3:16 pm

you mean US?

gig
on June 26, 2015 at 2:20 pm

Yes, at least all that don’t read your writings.

RF
on June 25, 2015 at 3:15 pm

Bill,

Several observations:

If Germany can not get their gold back (which they can not), then how in the world does Texas think they can get their gold?

If Texas gets any gold, do you think they are smart enough to drill each and every bar? I think the fed is holding fake gold bars.

As to educating people, even the ones that feel that some thing is wrong, I believe over 90% will have to learn the “hard way”, which will doom them for life as to keeping any wealth.

Always great to see another one of your articles.

Well, I’m off to hang out our new “Banana Republic” signs along our borders!

Bill Holter
on June 25, 2015 at 3:17 pm

you can bet your ass Texas will assay anything Uncle send!

Mark_BC
on June 25, 2015 at 5:01 pm

Asking questions is a better approach since everyone puts up resistance to having their world views challenged and no matter how leakproof a lecture is, it will usually fall on deaf ears

However, I disagree that one needs to ascribe to Austrian economics to understand what is happening. The alternative to Keynesian economics is not by default Austrian economics. It’s easy to criticize a failed system but much more difficult to out forth an alternative that works in the real world, and unfortunately Austrian economics has some fatal flaws. Like all conventional economics schools, it fails to understand how production happens. This is taken to the extreme in the writings of Ayn Rand who uses the word produce more than anyone I’ve seen, yet seems to not have the foggiest clue how production happens. For that you need to get into thermo economics which takes a much broader and reality based approach to understanding economics.

Bill Holter
on June 26, 2015 at 6:49 am

yes, tough to “puff up” when a real answer reveals the truth.

George
on June 25, 2015 at 6:20 pm

I’m starting to worry that we won’t even get to see this inbound crash. Our military is moving Cold War elements back into Cheyenne Mountain, after the relocation of these capabilities under our former U.S. SPACECOMM in 2001. This is really a huge and significant deal. Our National Command Authority has established the crisis red phone between us and the Chinese. And there’s more of this. If you sit back and read the undercurrents of what’s going on with our military, we (the U.S.) are preparing for war – right now – and I don’t think most understand this. And I’m not talking about some little incident involving a Special Forces unit. I agree to try and keep talking to others about financial security thru physical gold and all. Just do not limit your discussions to precious metals, discuss long term food stores too.
George
Colorado Springs

Bill Holter
on June 26, 2015 at 6:49 am

they know it’s coming.

Aussie Al
on June 25, 2015 at 8:39 pm

Bill great article, Going with what you said here’s another take for you. I send my parents all the info as a good son should to somehow prepare my folks from disaster, My dad rang me as regards this and I asked him what he thought, gave me these sage words of advise.
Son I have never in my 80 years trusted a politician in why would I start now!, as I have always told you they are “failed used car salesmen”
Great then maybe things can go back to the way they used to be when people owned things they worked for, because they “PAID CASH FOR THEM”
Don’t worry about me “worry about everyone else that life’s like this, and who created the problem”!
And finally – People of our generation were born ready, because most of us Fought, served, & worked work bloody hard for everything we have even our freedom! and never asked for anything from anyone! “ESPECIALLY NOT GOVERNMENTS!”

Bill Holter
on June 26, 2015 at 6:48 am

thanks Al, not so for the current generation.

Ron L
on June 26, 2015 at 9:11 am

Hi Bill. It’s good to read your articles again. Who is the bond fund entity that has gone entirely to cash? The link you provide mentions a bond manager who’s going more into cash but he didn’t reveal how much.

Bill Holter
on June 26, 2015 at 9:27 am

it was his fund.

Scott
on June 27, 2015 at 11:11 am

Hi Bill:

Listening to Larry Kudlow on WABC (as background noise) and during the second hour his guests were Brian Kelly and Barry Ritholtz (sp?). They were basically saying everything is cool and rosy. Barry is very bullish because the employment rates are consistently ticking north of 200,000, wages are ticking higher and corporation earnings are increasing 5-7% annually.

So we have one camp that says everything is peachy and the Obama economy is steadily improving and we have the other side that says a crash is coming. Someone is right and someone is wrong.

My question is if the government numbers are wrong then why can’t the “real” numbers overpower them when challenged? Even with MSM suppression, there are ways to get the numbers out. At some point the truth will set you free.

Bill Holter
on June 27, 2015 at 11:19 am

was Kudlow snorting or not?

Scott
on June 27, 2015 at 1:20 pm

I think if Kudlow was on the Titanic and if the Titanic was vertical 30 seconds before going under, he’d comment on how clear and beautiful the night sky is.

Bill Holter
on June 27, 2015 at 3:42 pm

he will go down screaming “King Dollar!”.

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