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Friday, February 12, 2016

Saudi Arabia has raised the ante in its battle with Iran by publicly
committing to send ground troops to Syria. This latest move by the Saudis is
aimed at drawing the US into a more direct involvement to confront Islamic
State as well as the de facto alliance of Russia and Iran to keep Syrian
President Bashar Al Assad in power. An agreement by major world powers to
negotiate a cessation of hostilities in the next week does little to thwart
Saudi Arabia’s strategy.

In a recent, wide-ranging interview in The Economist, Saudi Deputy
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was unequivocal in a recent about the goals of
Saudi Arabia’s more assertive, interventionist foreign and defence policy. To
achieve the kingdom’s goal of rolling back the popular uprisings in the Middle
East and North Africa and contain Iranian influence in the region, Saudi Arabia
needs to leave the US no option but to re-engage rather than simply focus on
the fight against jihadism.

“The United States must realise that they are the number one in the
world and they have to act like it,” Prince Mohammed said, suggesting that the
sooner the US re-engages the better. Reengagement means to the Saudi leader,
aggressive US support for the kingdom’s efforts to shape the Middle East and
North Africa in its image.

What happens in Syria has a far more immediate regional fallout than
events in Yemen where the Saudi military is struggling to win an unwinnable war
against Iran-backed Houthi rebels unlike the war in Yemen, with its
indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets, Saudi ground forces in Syria could
force the US to become more involved.

Saudi intervention in Syria would, in contrast to Yemen, which the
kingdom sees as a proxy war, bring Saudi troops in closer proximity to Russian
forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Russian and Iranian attacks on
Saudi-backed rebels would inevitably have to elicit a Saudi response.

It’s a high-stakes gamble that would create the perfect powder keg, from
which the US would be unable to stand aside. The US hopes that implementation
of an agreement by the International Syria Support Group (ISSC) to arrange a
ceasefire in Syria within a week will avert Saudi military intervention. The
agreement, despite Saudi support for the ISSC decision, excludes not only
Islamic State but also the Saudi-supported Al Nusra Front from the cessation of
hostilities, which raises questions about what the kingdom’s real intentions
are.

The agreement, even if implemented, does little to lower the risk of a
Saudi-Russian-Iranian conflagration. By exempting the two jihadist groups,
Russia and the US-led alliance retain the right to conduct airstrikes against
the militant Islamists. Russia’s track record so far has been that it has targeted
a scala of rebel groups rather than just the jihadists in its bid to strengthen
the Assad regime.

Saudi military spokesman Brigadier General Ahmad Assiri described the
cessation of hostilities was being negotiated as “irreversible
decision.” At the same time, Saudi Arabia announced that a 34-nation
military alliance made public by Prince Mohammed in December would meet in Riyadh next
month.

In many ways, the Saudi offer, whether implemented or not, constitutes a
master stroke. To sidestep the Saudi challenge and prevent a dangerous
escalation of the Syrian war, the Obama administration will have to come up
with proposals that justify delaying Saudi intervention, but go beyond air
strikes against IS and futile efforts to breathe new life into peace talks.

Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist with close ties to the
ruling Al Saud family, defined “the Americans” as the target of the Saudi
offer. “The Saudis are telling the Americans: ‘we are ready to send our troops
to Syria.’ What the Saudis did not say is: ‘what are you going to do about it?…
How are you going to come along with us?’ We are, I think, challenging the
Americans because the Americans are not doing their duty… We are saying: ‘Are
you willing to send troops along with us? Khashoggi said in an Al
Jazeera interview.

The Saudi gamble ironically fits neatly with the strategy of the Russian
and Iranian-backed regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Neither Saudi
Arabia nor Syria and its backers want real negotiations that could end Syria’s
five-year old, brutal civil war until the lay of the battlefield definitively
enhances their respective negotiating position.

The Assad regime made this clear by recently launching a major offensive
in Aleppo that significantly weakened a rebel stranglehold on the city and its
environs and ensured that United Nations-sponsored peace efforts were rendered
stillborn before they even effectively started. Saudi Arabia, backed by Turkey,
contributed their bit by persuading rebel negotiators to leave Geneva in the
wake of the Aleppo offensive.

The Saudi offer of ground troops exploits an increasingly untenable
situation. The Aleppo offensive has sent tens of thousands fleeing to the
Syrian-Turkish border. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has warned
that the latest fighting could force and additional one million Syrians to
flee.

With 2.5 million Syrian refugees already in Turkey and European leaders
urging Turkey to accommodate them rather than allow them to head to western
Europe, Ankara is urging NATO to patrol the waters off its Mediterranean shore
to prevent human traffickers from smuggling refugees to Greece. The Turkish
demand for NATO assistance adds to the Saudi strategy of forcing the US to
become more engaged.

For both Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Syria constitutes the ultimate
battleground for hegemony in the region. Russian military intervention and
Iranian backing have turned around the once waning fortunes of the Assad
regime.

A Syria in which the regime and IS, rather than other rebel groups, are
the only real domestic players turns Bashar al-Assad into a pivotal cog in the fight
against jihadism. That is something Saudi Arabia cannot allow to happen. To
turn the tide, it needs a United States that is engaged and willing to do its
bit.

Mr. Khashoggi hinted at how far Saudi Arabia was willing to go when
asked whether Saudi ground troops risked direct confrontation with Russia and
Iran. “Yes, it’s a risk but it’s more of a risk if the Iranians win in Syria
and have hegemony over that Arab land,” he said.

James
M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog and a forthcoming book with the same
title. A version of this story first appeared on RSIS Commentaries.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile