AFL football betting
testimonials

The bottom part of this page is for
our inaugural 2002 season

Note: Our policy since 2004 is
to publish just one or two testimonials relevant to
the current year, as it was getting a bit too much.
A few of these can usually be found at the top of
the testimonials on this page in bold.

Unlike some businesses, we do not write
our own testimonials! This shabby practice deserves
to be exposed wherever it can be shown to be happening.
Lay-out has been standardised and punctuation and
spelling corrected in some cases for readability.
Some members of our AFL 'insiders' mailing list appear
more than once because of frequent communication amongst
the group.

If you are genuinely considering purchasing
a Smartgambler
AFL package we can in special circumstances
put you in touch with the people whose comments are
quoted in this section. Smartgambler thanks these
people most sincerely for their kind words and will
happily remove their comments if requested.

Sent: Monday, 27 February 2012 1:09
PM
To: Guy West
Subject: Re: AFL

Thanks Guy. I had a fantastic betting season last year.
If this year is anything like it I'll be as happy
as Larry!
Best Chris

Hi Guy,
Running short of time.
Can you send me the Round 1 AFL stuff and I'll arrange
payment later in the week.
Best year ever last year at 17.1% pot and an average
of 8.4% over 7 years. Gives me a non-vice like hobby!!
All the best, Glenn.

Just a short note to say that I really enjoyed the
football betting this year. Living in Hong Kong and
travelling a bit meant that I could not devote that
much time to it, but it really did make following
the footy much more interesting.

As well, reading the messages from the constant
contributors was informative and in some cases highly
entertaining.

And I made some money. I put $1,200 into an IAS account.

Returns were: Following the Kelly system (generally
10% cutoff and 1/2 Kelly): ($93.20) - not so good.

Selected head to head games, parlaying 4-5 games
$161.05.

Selected 'lines' games, parlaying 4-5 games $348.50.

Miscellaneous bets, multiples etc. $165.65.

Tipping competitions $303.89.

So, I made $582 on turnover of $4,555, which was
not bad for a tentative start.

I'm looking forward to next year and with the experience
of this year will be a bit more adventurous.

Good morning. Sincere thanks for an outstanding service
throughout the past season. A great result for many
of us. Will definitely be a starter for next year.
Will you e-mail the current subscribers & advise
re next years arrangements?

I have as yet to decide re the tennis. Is the reduced
rate applicable for a little longer?

Some of you may be interested in an easy arbitrage
situation on Brownlow head to heads. The players are the Kangaroos Archer
and Stevens. At www.sportsbet.com.au Stevens is $2.00 to beat Archer.
At Norm Short Archer is $2.40 to beat Stevens. Both
are Aussie firms that are easy to access and collect
from. Norm Short will charge 3% credit card fee, Sportsbet
nothing, so hop in and make a few easy dollars.

Many thanks to everyone for their great contributions
here during season. It has been a fantastic source
of information, which has managed to keep me on the
straight and narrow during the course of the season.
I've also picked up a huge amount, none the least
there are many ways to skin a cat and it's always
best to be continually open to new ideas and methods.

I think we will all be be back next season bigger,
better and stronger from all that's been learnt this
season .... can't wait.

To Stephen Clarke, his computer and program, well
done again, the selections have on the whole been
very good again with a few bad rounds along the way
which is only to be expected. To Guy, for his Monday
e-mail which was the one I looked forward to most
each week, many thanks.

I'm carrying on normally for the next 9 matches to
see the season out and looking forward to the coming
tennis package. I know nothing about tennis, but like
watching and following it, so I'm in.

Guy,
Good afternoon. I know I haven't provided a lot of
feedback through the year but I have been very pleased.
I ended up with 121 winners on Tipstar and generally
a good profit from my footy punting.

I like fewer bets but larger investments, particularly
with the start middle. I like the horses and tend
to spend a reasonable amount of my time on them.

Definitely interested in the tennis, although I have
not had a bet on it to date.

Well, I have thoroughly enjoyed the season, with
all it's ups and downs. Learnt heaps, have heaps to
learn yet!

For those interested, here are some details from
my season. Thought I'd stick it in 2 columns, because
I made a major change to my system after about Round
8 and tweaked it a bit more at Round 12. So one column
is my actual, the other is how it would have looked
if I'd used my current system for the entire year.

Of course, this doesn't prove anything, except that
I was a lucky rookie! If I can repeat this during
my summer campaigns, and again with the AFL in 2003,
only then will I be convinced that I should relinquish
my rookie status :-)

I thought it's interesting though.... if anyone else
is willing to do the full Monty and "bare all",
I'd love to see how you shaped up over the season,
and any comments or suggestions you may have.

Cheers, Max the Rookie :-)

(Note: Max has not factored in the cost of the
package in this analysis.)

Thank you for all you analysis Max. It is very helpful
to me to gain insight into punting. It is good to
see the sharing on this private forum. I have yet
to find another forum that deals with AFL punting
in depth..

As a group I think we have done well this weekend.
Thanks to Port & Brisbane I finished well up for
the weekend. Thanks to the computer I even won on
a 1-39 margin on Port (a good bonus).

I like the "Tinhead" for now. To get the
Port result to within a goal is as good as you can
get. I'm happy to say the Visa card is paid off .
I haven't done that for three years. Thanks all. Long
live smart betting.

I had a great weekend. One bet, $1000 on an all up
both teams under 39&1/2 ie Sydney ($2.30) Melbourne
($2.50) odds 5.75-1. Thus, a nice little earner. Also
tipped 7/8; missed Richmond. I think most punters
finished in front. Guy et al have been a significant
factor in my success to date. A really great year,
well over what I thought I would win.

Well what a weekend for me. Had 38% of my bank on
the line and ended up + 2%. A real roller coaster
weekend for me. Losses on Collingwood h/h and Sydney
at the line. I will be re evaluating my criteria for
line bets with a negative component. In the future
I will accept a 40 % return instead of going for the
90 % on the line.

This year I have been very successful on bets on
the underdog with a headstart. This is my first year
punting. Does anybody have previous years data on
underdogs covering the line or is this a quirk for
this year? Are there any publications that have a
record of what the bookies line was?

Very glad Adelaide kick a goal after the siren thus
changing my weekend from a negative to a small positive.
Also a win on Richmond with a +10 bet.

I am still happy as this is my first year punting
on anything. Just like the rookie Max, but not with
the success that Max has had. Bank is showing a 56%
gain to date, so I am thinking of taking a break until
2003. Only thinking!

I also had a good weekend. If I had just started
and only bet on overlays I would of got 4/4. Every
overlay came in this week. So some rough calculations
would give a 70% increase in bank. I now have a healthy
20% increase so I am content. So, on to round 16.

All of those I feel could be justified in terms of
overlay and team balance.

However then, because I'm a desperate who was flushed
with success, I backed Brisbane -37.5 and Adelaide
-3.5 at the line. I will never back Brisbane again
unless I am sure that Keating, Lappin and most particularly
Voss are playing. They are just a different side without
them. Coincidentally, Brisbane have only covered the
bookies' line 6 times out of 14 this year. Adelaide,
Western, North and Port lead the way with 9 wins at
the points each.

In conclusion, I think we should all congratulate
Steve, as I believe his strike rate vis-a-vis the
marketplace has been outstanding. I hope, in saying
that, I have not jonahed us all like those imbeciles
on TV do every time some poor bludger's lining up
for goal.

Picked the draw in the work footy tipping competition,
which was worth 10 points. Which puts me up with the
leaders. Considering first prize is $4,500, I'm excited
!!!

$176,035.60 was the footyquad payout! It was pleasing
that the spreadsheet I wrote in conjuction with the
computer's selections picked the footyquad in its
first week. Will see how it performs next week. Did
not make a bet though due to the high outlay, (well
in relation to my finances!)

James your thoughts? Still will need to work on it
to reduce the outlay needed to meet the spreadsheet's
predictions.

Once again the computer picks the winners of the
footyquad and the margin correctly in two games !

Western Bulldogs by zero points, wow what a prediction!!!
Anyone have any money on that?

Don.

(The Swinburne computer correctly predicted the
round 14 draw between Western and Essendon after picking
all eight winners the week before. This was of course
an abnormally good result, even for the computer.)

Totally agree with you Greg. For years I have underperformed
in footy tipping, betting etc. I had a method of betting
which made a few dollars but nowhere near the percentage
I am making this year. I paid for this service so
I wouldn't have to make adjustments, selections, changes
etc.

I am also leading one tipping competition and am
four behind in a massive one and believe that following
the selections will put me in the prizemoney.

I personally only bet if there is a 10%+ overlay.
As you all know I also bet on tennis and I don't need
action every AFL match day as there are tennis events
to keep me occupied nearly 365 days of the year.

As a result of my overlay cut off, my weekend consisted
of losses on Richmond, Sydney and Adelaide outright,
with wins on Geelong and the Kangaroos and a small
profit on the Bulldogs.

As mentioned earler in the year I also bet on the
spread for outsiders so had collects on Sydney and
Bulldogs. (Didn't try Richmond). Overall profit for
the week was 24.28%, (so a nice week).

Missed Port as I had the best price at $1.36 (only
a 4.18% overlay). I have also decided that betting
on Richmond is a sure fire way to go broke. Apologies
to Tiger supporters, but they are very ordinary indeed.

Had two bets for the weekend, both winners. Geelong
@ $1.65 and Western @ $3.00 under 39.5, both collects.
I decided not to bet Sunday as I had a gut feeling
there would be upsets and I was right and saved my
money.

You are correct. If you back only overlays greater
than 17 % as recommended on the Swinburne website
you will have a very good chance of increasing the
bank.

For those that need more info on this you can find
the past performance of betting on only large overlays
at www.swin.edu.au/sport. There is a graph for last
year showing what you would have made from a $100
bank just betting on overlays greater than 17 %. The
disadvantage of this is that you don't get many overlays
over 17 %.

But being patient does pay dividends! If you start
with a large bank then you only need a few good bets
to feel that you are making good money. I started
in round ten and have only put bets on overlays larger
than 17% (Sportsbet) So far I have got them all. Geelong
round ten and Adelaide. Then Geelong again when they
beat Sydney. These games had overlays.

Last round (round 14) I went with Geelong, Port and
the Kangaroos. Although they had overlays <17%
they had good chances of winning as per the computer.
Port was at 76.6%, Geelong 69.9% and Kangaroos 72
% and they all had overlays! Western versus Essendon
was too close to call.

Sportsbet early in the week was giving the same price
for Adelaide and Collingwood. I thought this was too
risky a bet despite the good overlay on Adelaide.

In short stick to large overlays and over time you
will realise a good profit if you are Full Kelly betting.
(Of course if anyone was brave enough and used the
spreadsheet I sent out for the footyquad you would
have $179,000 in your pocket) Does anyone know of
any footyquad syndicates ?

I had bets on six games, including Sydney. Took West
Coast as well as Essendon, Geelong, Port and Hawthorn.
Missed Brisbane inadvertently. Great weekend, with
profits of 73% of bank, taking total for season to
212%. Now to try and hang on to the profits <grin>,
especially as it's shaping up as a big weekend of
betting again.

Had something on Malisse and watched Scud until I
flaked at 1:30am, when they were one game each.

According to my figures, this staking would be returning
+37% on turnover this season to date. You would have
had 33 bets @ $100 ( $3,300 turnover ) for a total
collect of $4,532 and a subsequent season profit of
$1,232 after 10 rounds.

Again, shows the Swinburne ratings have been good
this season. Kelly staking hasn't paid off this season
to date due to patterns of wins/losses. However, this
can quickly change, a few good weekends in a row and
Kelly betting quickly forges to the lead.

Kafelnikov.

PS. I give 50% payout on the St Kilda draw, which
helps a bit. Many bookies only gave money back.

Sorry guys, the staking plan I mentioned in earlier
post is to collect (not win) a fixed amount per bet.
I find it provides a good measurement of performance.

You stake each bet to collect the same, fixed amount
(say $1,000) eg if bookies at 2.5, bet $400 to collect
$1,000, if bookies at 1.5, bet $667 to collect $1,000.

This staking plan for the season to date is showing
a profit of 28% on turnover. I'm not recommending
it, simply mentioned it as it provides a good measure
of performance. Kelly betting doesn't really show
up performance, as it is far too dependent upon its
last few bets.

Simply wanted to make the point that the Swinburne
ratings have actually performed quite well as always,
as shown by this staking plan.

Would you please re-send me the info for round 11
if you havent already done so. My account was overloaded
and I think it couldn't get through. I also had a
great weekend. Only new to actually punting on AFL,
even though I'm a footy fan and love the game.

Last weekend was the best I've had yet, with 101%
increase in bank. Full Kelly's on Geelong and Adelaide
were responsible, while small "token" bets
on Essendon, Sydney, Port and Freo pretty much cancelled
each other out.

You may be interested in this. I am tracking the
results of my PURE system versus my actual results
(where I over-ride certain games). So far the PURE
system is outperforming my modified system by 7.2
points. PURE growth = 75.8%, vs Actual growth 68.6%
for the season.

Matt.

(The 'actual growth' in Matt's original bank,
referred to above, was after 5 rounds of AFL betting.)

Lets hope the Magpies were the start of a shocking
round for tipsters but a great round for Swinburne
overlay punters! A Full Kelly bet on the Magpies at
$5.25 with Norm Short was a great start to the round.
A couple more roughies, (Saints @ $6.59 & Eagles
@ $4.50) would be very nice.

MAC.

(St Kilda drew at massive odds for a half face-value
payout and the Eagles defeated Brisbane in one of
the most profitable rounds to date.)

I would like to be put on Don's 'insiders' mailing
list. Congratulations to you and the team. What a
top weekend result. Thanks to you all for the professional
info you are providing us with.

Have a good day.

Cheers, Anthony.

Hi Guy.

I would like to join the discussion forum. I haven't
joined as yet as I have spent the last three weeks
on holidays in Queensland and it was a bit hard to
get my emails etc. Been making a nice profit so far
with Melbourne Round 1, Kangaroos and Fremantle Round
2 and Carlton and Brisbane last weekend.

Have tried a few other things outside of the Kelly
system (like Fremantle Round 2) and have paid for
my subscription twice over. Hope to be able to add
years of sporting punting knowledge to the forum.

Using my Half / Full Kelly system, I was going to
put a Half Kelly bet on the Kangaroos with a 12% overlay.
When the price lengthed from $1.75 to $1.80 at Global
Sports Bet, I switched to a Full Kelly bet (overlay
15.2%) and invested 19% of the pot. I'm quite happy
about that!

I got Adelaide at $1.95 on Canbet on Friday when
most bookies were offering $1.85 or $1.90, by using
OnThePunt's link to the latest odds. At 15% overlay,
I decided $1.95 was close enough.

OnThePunt's link to the latest odds is a very useful
resource as it shows the odds offered by 8 different
bookies for all of the games.

Overall I got off to a good start as I got Melbourne
at $4.06 (Canbet through OnThePunt again) and finally,
decided not to back Geelong as Steve stated he had
some concerns about the computer's ratings of Essendon
and I thought the actual odds offered were pretty
true.

Good to see that Steve has kicked off the season
on the mark, with Melbourne thrown up at a huge overlay
and a Kelly bet of 12% of the bank. The warnings surrounding
Geelong were handy also, and as such I chose to make
that game a Half Kelly. It's great to be in a strong
position early and be able to bet with the bookies
money for a while. I notice Melbourne firmed in from
$4.25 which I got, to $3.30 at games start. I am sure
this wasn't all our doing, but maybe we caused a bit
of it. Hope we can keep this up.

Comments: Excellent site, I especially love the fact
that you use mathematically proven arguments and that
you also give links to problem gambling sites. I'm
currently doing a PHD in sports statistics at Swinburne
University, and I was wondering if you could link
to my web site: www.swin.edu.au/sport/footy/footybetting.htm