The EIU view

Cubans approved a constitutional reform in Feburary that will decentralise executive power away from the presidency by re-introducing the role of prime minister. This will limit the power of the president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who remains beholden to his predecessor, Raúl Castro. Growth will be weak amid a slow and cautious economic reform process given persistent hard currency shortages tied to declining Venezuelan largesse.

Sugar harvest shows early signs of recovery
Despite an expected recovery in sugar exports, we estimate that Cuba will produce around 1.8m tonnes in 2019, which is well below the peak of 8m tonnes registered in 1990.

Narrower fiscal deficit planned for 2019
The 2019 budget foresees a deficit of 5.3% of forecast 2019 GDP. This is high, but is still a market reduction of an average of 7.4% of GDP recorded in 2015-18.

New cabinet dominated by Castro holdovers
Ricardo Cabrisas, the minister of economy, has been replaced by the vice-minister. The largest changes have come on the economic team, but still represent policy continuity.

Metric system; also old Spanish units. Sugar is often measured in Spanish tonnes of 2,271 lbs and there is a Cuban quintal of 101.4 lbs made up of 4 arrobas. For area measurement, one Cuban caballería equals 13.4 ha or 33.16 acres

CURRENCY:

There are currently two domestic currencies: the Cuban peso (CUP), in which prices and wages are denominated within the domestic economy; and the convertible peso (CUC), used in ¡°hard currency¡± retail outlets. In both currencies, one peso is equal to 100 centavos. The official exchange rates, used in national income and fiscal accounting aggregates, are CUP1:CUC1 and CUC1:US$1. An ¡°unofficial¡±, but legal, CUP:CUC exchange rate (known as the Cadeca rate) is used for personal transactions. This rate is fixed at CUP24:CUC1. The government plans to eliminate the CUC, but has not given a date for the change, or the proposed value of the Cuban peso. US dollars exchanged within Cuba are subject to a 10% commission charge; there is no such charge for the conversion of other currencies into convertible pesos. Since 2002 euros have been accepted in some tourist resorts