Conservative party sees surge in support since last month, new poll shows

If a federal election were held today, the Conservative Party of Canada would garner 36% of the vote, a five percentage point boost in public support compared to last month, says a Forum Poll for the National Post.

The NDP would get 28% of the vote, the Liberal Party of Canada 25%, the Bloc Quebecois 7% and the Green Party 4%.

The portion of Canadians who approve of Prime Minister Stephen Harper also went up this month to 38% from 35%.

Of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, Members of Parliament from the party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper would take 144, up from 129 last month, the poll says. The NDP would take 73 seats, a dip from last month’s 77. The Liberals would take 68 seats, also a dip from 77. The Bloc would get 22 seats.

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The Tories’ biggest supporters in Canada were older men outside of Quebec who make $100,000 a year or more, the poll shows. The NDP got most of its support from B.C. residents under the age of 55.

Federal Liberals got the bulk of their support from Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent, Ontario and Quebec.

If Liberal party leader contender MP Justin Trudeau were in charge today, the poll says, the Grits would get 35% of the popular vote, just barely beating out the Tories’ 33%.

In this case, the NDP would garner 21% of the vote, the Bloc 7% and the Green Party 3%.

Trudeau’s leadership, however, wouldn’t help them regain control of the government. The Tories would get a thin minority with 120 seats while the Liberals would get 112, the poll says.

Fifty seats would go to the NDP, 25 to the Bloc and one to the Green Party.

The Forum Poll is based on responses from 1,626 randomly selected Canadians via an interactive phone survey. The poll was conducted between Jan. 16 and 17. Results are considered accurate +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.