Twitter @haarsager

Saturday, 04 November 2006

The radio wars are escalating. In a one-two punch aimed at enlisting
regulators to their cause, the National Association of Broadcasters
(NAB) and National Public Radio want the Federal Communications
Commission to investigate alleged misdeeds by satellite radio companies
XM ... and Sirius ...

Link: BusinessWeek. [Disclosure: I'm on the board of directors of NPR, mentioned in the story above, and am the GM of 13 public radio stations in the Northwest. The opinions below, as always, are my own.]

Evidence is that the satellite companies, through higher-than-legal-power FM coupling transmitters, various localization attempts, and some interesting patent applications are taking an aggressive -- some would say scofflaw -- position vis-à-vis terrestrial broadcasting. It's good for broadcasters to keep the pressure on, but I'm not hugely worried about satellite radio. It is providing a lot of choice for listeners who value that over all else and it gives perennial 13-year-olds a place to listen to Howard Stern with nearly all constraints on his own paleo-adolescence removed, but like politics, radio is best localized, as the companies who have done their best to avoid it are now learning.

In recent months, I've come to the conclusion that terrestrial broadcasters have a powerful capability in HD Radio. No, not so much in the multi-channel IBOC part of HD Radio (though that's helpful), but in its open architecture which will permit marrying terrestrial HD Radio channels with as many IP channels as a broadcaster wants to stream -- all under a station's brand. Every station can be XM. I'll be writing more about this soon, so for now just a tease. --Dennis

Friday, 25 August 2006

Bridge Ratings has revised its digital media growth projections. It shows growth in every area except terrestrial analog radio which projects a continuing decline in usage, steepening after 2009. Looking out to 2020, it shows Internet Radio nearly equalling terrestrial analog listening and HD Radio being on a par witih XM and Sirius (individually, not combined). It states:

The compiled data indicates that at this point in time, projected
subscribers to satellite radio should reach over 34 million by 2010 and
60 million by 2020. However, we are now also projecting HD Radio's
growth and though very small market penetration currently exists
(555,000 by year end), best efforts to project have HD improving to
almost 20 million in 2010 and 46 million by 2020 - competitive with
either satellite channel should they survive until then. The advent of
HD radio and increasing growth of Internet radio will slow original
growth projections for satellite radio. Internet radio could greatly
benefit from pervasive Wi-Max or Wide Area Wireless Access which will
bring Internet Radio to portable devices, including car radios by 2008.

Link: Bridge Ratings. Be sure to click the "Add terrestrial radio to the mix" link. --Dennis

Monday, 21 August 2006

...and then there's radio. It's a different experience. The key to
radio has been in evolving what comes out of the speakers as much as
technology. In 1970, FM was a superior technology sound wise, but what
made FM happen is the programming. FM had been around since 1940 but in
the 70's FM attacked the vulnerabilities of AM which was still paying
by the rules of 1956. Same thing now, FM is vulnerable because it's
playing by the rules of 1980. When radio gets in sync with the era,
it's an experience that I believe will always be a significant part of
the listening pie. ¶ Years ago, there was similar talk about when
8 Track, cassette and later CD players were integrated into cars. that
same "radio is dead" talk. Radio is resilient. It was given it's last
rites in 1955 when TV became mainstream. The emergence of these
technologies certainly creates a challenge, but media ain't no cake
walk.....I can't think of any business that changes as fast as media
these days. IF we were to stay stuck in 1988 thinking or fail to
address our shortcomings--THAT is a problem, but if we attack the areas
we need to attack and actually deliver (AFDI) on what we promise,
things will prosper. I can say that about ANY of the competing
technologies, not just XM. The technology is sound, the challenge is to
maximize it through the speakers and to the public. To say the idea of
satellite radio is "dead" because of another excellent technology
strikes me as absurd. ...

Sunday, 20 August 2006

Pull up the six-month performance of companies making up The Hollywood Reporter/Bloomberg 50 Entertainment Stock Index and a tiny pattern emerges: Dead last is XM Satellite Radio, and third from last is Sirius Satellite Radio. ...

Saturday, 22 July 2006

Satellite radio will boast 19.5 million subscribers by 2010 with about 17% of
all U.S. households tuning in to at least one of the two pay radio services,
primarily because consumers like commercial-free music and the ability to listen
to their favorite channels no matter where in the country they are. ¶ The projections released July 11 come from Targetbase,
a unit of advertising agency giant Omnicom Group, and are significantly lower
than other forecasts. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that there will be 30
million sat radio subscribers in 2010. ...