An occasional glimpse into the workings of the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Executive (or comments on anything else that takes my fancy).

18 April 2016

Pushing the envelope

It is difficult enough to predict with any certainty how the economy will behave over the next three months. But the Treasury has a crystal ball to foresee the future over the next thirteen years. The BBC reports:

Britain's national income could be 6% smaller by 2030 if the UK leaves the European Union, a major report by the Treasury will say.

The report says the size of the cut in gross domestic product would be the equivalent of about £4,300 a year for every household.

The major impact of leaving, the report argues, will be because trade barriers will be higher, which will hit exports.

And investment will be lower both within the UK and from abroad, it says.

And the notion that you can measure the annual cut in GDP per household at "about £4,300" is surely a case of spurious accuracy.