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A newly-released research report by The Coyne Partnership (www.thecoynepartnership.com) shows the number of true retirees – excluding those who never worked to begin with – will reach only 46 million by 2017 (10 years out), and that’s only if the trend toward working longer stops shifting today. A more probable scenario, in which even more Americans choose to work longer, produces only 36 million true retirees in 2017– essentially no growth versus today.

Officially titled, “Smaller Than You Thought: Estimates of the Future Size & Growth Rate of the Retirement Market in the United States,” the report is the first to provide detailed estimates – by year, by age – of the size and growth rate of the U.S. retirement market over the next 25 years. This feat was accomplished by collecting, reconciling and analyzing data from a variety of government sources.

“Previous statements suggesting huge growth in the retirement market failed to consider several important factors,” said Kevin Coyne, long-time McKinsey & Company senior partner and a current senior teaching professor at the Goizueta Business School of Emory University. “Those statements didn’t acknowledge that there are already 35 million retirees today, including millions of pre-baby boomers and early-retiring baby boomers; that many older baby boomers will die before the younger ones retire; and that older Americans started delaying their retirements over a decade ago – a trend that will likely accelerate in the years ahead.”

The consequences of the new findings, both positive and negative, will undoubtedly be significant for organizations and individuals from all sectors. Negatively impacted sectors will include financial institutions – such as banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies, many of which have already invested billions in the retirement financial services market – as well as real estate developers, leisure services providers and manufacturers of such products as golf clubs. On the upside, the findings could well portend good news for society overall, including a slower-than-anticipated draw-down of the Social Security trust fund and reduced expenses for Medicare.

Co-founded by brothers Kevin and Shawn Coyne, The Coyne Partnership (www.thecoynepartnership.com) is a boutique strategy consulting firm that conducts highly-targeted projects for senior executives of leading organizations in both the private and public sectors.