Andre Johnson 2013 Season Outlook

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So after Andre delivers his best year ever yardage wise he's now proceeding to fall down everybody's draft board. For some reason it appears that rotoworld and fantasy football players in general have failed to learn that TDs are fluky and much more weight should be given to how he was 2nd overall in receiving yards last year than that he only had 4 TDs. I get TDs count disproportionately in fantasy, but for all those would-be TD chasers out there, take a look at how that worked out for McCoy owners last year.

I still have Andre as a top 4 WR and it surprises me that people are regularly ranking Fitz, Harvin, Dez, or Julio over him. Not that those guys can't outperform him, but Andre clearly seems in a better situation than them with fewer unknowns.

For years I thought he was going too high in drafts, but now that he's fallen so low I see a need to build the hype back up to where it belongs. He's still a beast at WR and he proved that last year by racking up 1,600 yards despite his slow first half.

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Andre Johnson is no doubt top 5 WR based on raw skill set/measurables. As flukey as TD's are to predict, he simply doesn't get TDs, obviously this isn't a shortcoming of Dre but more so the way the Texans use him (I dont believe he's ever had a 10+ TD season). The texans run way too much in the red zone, they use Dre as a decoy or schaub shies away from throwing to him in a small space with double coverage.

As a long time Dre keeper league owner and texans fan, it's absolutely frustrating that the texans have apparently no idea what a fade route to the end zone is, especially when you account for his hands, size, & jumping ability. He's definitely a buy low candidate based on good offense with his level of skills. however as he ages i don't see him with a higher TD output than around 8 TDs, and unless Kubiak has an epiphany i don't expect them to utilize him much differently in the red zone.

The arrival of Hopkins will not be great for his fantasy value either unless Hopkins explodes and warrants defenses to account for his presence-giving Dre more room to operate. His league leading %age of targets in comparison to other WRs on team won't be going up. So theoretically if hopkins fills in the WR2 role it just means less targets for Dre. Only hope for Dre's #s to improve are that Hopkins creates a more efficient offense, giving the texans more total offensive plays to throw to Dre.

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He only turned it around last year after the defense had a few injuries (Cushing) and started conceding more points. When the defense was doing well at the beginning of the season, they didn't need to chase points and running the ball was usually enough. This is going to be Arian foster's team and they will always run the ball first. Andre wil be tough to count on every week.

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Andre was on pace for a 14 TD season in 2007 (I know 2007 has very little to do with today, but still) and several years of nearly reaching 10 TDs - so he has scored quite a few in the past. I think people come up with too many reasons why TD totals have been low, when I think a lot of it is just luck or chance - conditional on being a player who is one of the main red zone options on your team, which Andre still is. It's hard to count on anybody for double digit TDs anyways, there's plenty of examples where people go from double digits to less than 5 in a year - so I don't know where everybody thinks they can go for more than 8 TDs.

The other thing that is good about Andre is that Foster seems to be wearing down after overuse. I don't know if they give him another 400 touches, so even though Andre's targets as a % of targets may go down - I think the overall number of passing plays will probably go up. Although you're right that during the second half the defense gave up more points [18.3ppg before their week 8 bye // 22.4 ppg after], another thing that happened to an even larger extent is that the Texans started scoring way less points [30.9ppg // 22.2 ppg] - I think that's because they couldn't count on Foster as much anymore [9 TDs in first 7 games, 6 is last 9 - since everybody likes to keep track of TDs]. I'm not really concerned about Hopkins stealing production at all, first year WRs don't tend to do much - AJ Green and Julio Jones are freaks that skewed our expectations.

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The offense has changed since Foster's emergence and the fact that Arian had 400 carries is evidence of that. Its an offense based on ball control, and not a quick strike offense. You can assume he won't get as many carries but if the defense plays at a high level and they are controlling the game with a lead than Andre is just a possession guy that will be used to move the chains once in a while. Arian is also the best goal line back in the league, using him to score TDs is a no brainer.

I don't agree with people that claim Foster might be 'slowing down'. He is a strongly built RB, has a smooth running style and the blocking scheme is tailor-made for his sort of game. Even with all the carries he gets, you might have noticed that he doesn't take as much punishment. One of the few RBs that is exceptional at avoiding unneccessary contact. Anybody can get injured but this guy is the safest RB in the league and Houston's offense will be built around him.

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Andre was on pace for a 14 TD season in 2007 (I know 2007 has very little to do with today, but still) and several years of nearly reaching 10 TDs - so he has scored quite a few in the past. I think people come up with too many reasons why TD totals have been low, when I think a lot of it is just luck or chance - conditional on being a player who is one of the main red zone options on your team, which Andre still is. It's hard to count on anybody for double digit TDs anyways, there's plenty of examples where people go from double digits to less than 5 in a year - so I don't know where everybody thinks they can go for more than 8 TDs.

The other thing that is good about Andre is that Foster seems to be wearing down after overuse. I don't know if they give him another 400 touches, so even though Andre's targets as a % of targets may go down - I think the overall number of passing plays will probably go up. Although you're right that during the second half the defense gave up more points [18.3ppg before their week 8 bye // 22.4 ppg after], another thing that happened to an even larger extent is that the Texans started scoring way less points [30.9ppg // 22.2 ppg] - I think that's because they couldn't count on Foster as much anymore [9 TDs in first 7 games, 6 is last 9 - since everybody likes to keep track of TDs]. I'm not really concerned about Hopkins stealing production at all, first year WRs don't tend to do much - AJ Green and Julio Jones are freaks that skewed our expectations.

Dre will still be and has been the #1 redzone option in Htown for the past 11 seasons...i doubt his lack of TD production is based on 11 bad rolls of the dice per say. It's a function of Kubiak being so run heavy inside the 10 yrd line and his refusal to acknowledge a fade route to a freakish Dre is a good call. My friends and i joke about how we never run fades to Dre and nearly crapped our pants when they actually threw him a fade last season that did not result in a TD (Schaub's fault not Dre). Texans simply don't utilize him in the red zone enough, now that he's lost a step TD prospects for him are worse. Not trying to say Dre isn't a good fantasy WR as I love the guy and he has the ability to get 10+TDs, but based on past results/Texans red zone habits expecting anything beyond 7-10 TDs is a bit too optimistic.

I'm not trying to say Hopkins is someone i want on my fantasy team, but he will be a factor that will take targets away from Dre. We have been waiting for just a decent WR opposite of Dre for years. Its not hard to say Hopkins (runs good routes and has great hands) is already a big upgrade from Kevin Walter. With a more reliable WR2, unless the Texans throw more, Dre's targets take a slight dip- its not hard to get open if you're a reliable WR getting single coverage all game. If you watch Texans games often times Dre gets catches after a play breaks down and Schaub can't find anyone open after progressions- so he forces the ball to Dre. If Hopkins is anything he is billed to be, Schaub won't have to force as many throws to Dre.

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I don't agree with people that claim Foster might be 'slowing down'. He is a strongly built RB, has a smooth running style and the blocking scheme is tailor-made for his sort of game. Even with all the carries he gets, you might have noticed that he doesn't take as much punishment. One of the few RBs that is exceptional at avoiding unneccessary contact. Anybody can get injured but this guy is the safest RB in the league and Houston's offense will be built around him.

Good analysis on Dre's fantasy decline. I agree Foster is the best goal line back in the NFL and he manages to minimize the toll from hits. But if you think he hasn't slowed down, perhaps you should look at the following stats:

2010: YPC = 4.9; 393 touches

2011: YPC = 4.4; 331 touches (btw this was the year he missed 3 games and didn't play the whole game in 2 others)

2012: YPC = 4.1; 391 touches

4.1 YPC is not an elite #, averaging .8 less YPC is statistically significant. His great season was mostly due to the high 3 of touches and TDs. His YPC has dropped every season after he started flirting with 400 touches a season. Winston's departure didn't help his YPC, but i think Winston, though better than Newton & others, is overrated. if he was really that great why did the Chiefs release him and why is he still a FA?

Even if you don't take as big of hits as others, when you touch the ball 391 times you aren't running out of bounds that much. Your body is still getting hit by players as well as the turf when tackled. It adds up no matter how good you are at not taking the full impact of a tackle. Fantasy history of backs with 300+ touches that many years in a row doesn't bode well for Foster. Remember how good LT use to be?

That being said Foster is still my #2 RB but that's not because he's uber efficient with the ball. it's a result of our run first red zone mentality and the large amount of touches he gets. His only hope to regain efficiency/YPC is we have a RT that emerges and perhaps Hopkins arrival forces teams to stack the box less and spread the field- a healthy Ben Tate could also help.

Fantasy decline!?!? I don't think you guys realize what an amazing season Dre had last year. Give him 7 TDs and would have scored more fantasy points than AJ Green. Give him 10 TDs and he would have been the #1 overall WR last year ahead of even Megatron.

I think everybody underestimates how much luck does indeed play a role in the number of TDs over a season - due to the small number of games played. There's no statistical difference between a guy scoring 8 TDs or one scoring 5 TDs or 11 TDs. People love to add explanations for things that are already explained by randomness alone and it drives me crazy.

I agree Andre will probably score between 7-9 TDs, but that puts him squarely in top 5 WR territory - which he is currently being drafted well outside of.

Keep in mind he put up 1,600 yards with Foster getting 400 touches, so it doesn't really matter if Foster doesn't decline. Andre is a top 5 WR (highly doubt he scores only 4 TDs again) with Foster in tip top shape. However, if by some chance Foster does decline - Andre is going to challenge hard for top overall WR again.

Now, I'm sorry to call people in this thread out - but just as an example of the last time when I tried (and failed) to convince people that there was nothing wrong with a player and they were still a top option, I'm going to post some stuff from the Calvin Johnson 2012 thread.

From the Calvin Johnson 2012 thread:

LMAO bust

Get together with the Darren McFadden group and let us all cry together

#2 in receiving yards per game, #3 in targets per game being considered underperforming = stud

If I bench him for Cecil Jorts, I deserve whatever I get.

But I think I'm gonna bench him for Cecil Jorts.

Hmm he doesn't practice and it says he's hurt. Hmm. His numbers are way lower than expected. Hmm. Did I mention it says he's hurt? My question is: Is he hurt?

Through first seven games

WR #1: 41 rec, 679 yards

WR #2: 41 rec, 638 yards

QB #1: 262 att, 163 rec, 1912 yards

QB #2: 313 att, 198 rec, 2108 yards

#1 is CJ and Stafford in 2011. #2 is them in 2012

Quit your worrying and musings about what's wrong - because nothing is wrong. It's just bad luck on the TD front. Despite all the dropped passes things are still looking pretty much the same as last year.

Yes it's annoying they don't use Megatron in the first half, but they didn't last year either.

It's hard to expect people to believe me that nothing is wrong with Andre and he's still a top 4 WR at worst when nobody would even believe me that Megatron was still good while he was in the process of still being good. Again sorry to call you guys out, your feelings on Andre this year and Calvin first half of last year were the predominant ones, but it's just an example of how people look for explanations of what's wrong when the answer is that nothing is wrong.

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it's alright man, I dont mind being called out. one thing you need to realise is that even though Calvin had a massive season, many guys that drafted him struggled to make playoffs or missed playoffs altogether because of his slow start. TDs are the currency in fantasy, just compare his 2011 and 2012 TD totals in the first 7 weeks. The ones that traded for him mid-way were the ones that won leagues. These are standard non PPR leagues, btw. You can look at 16 game stats but fantasy is largely about making a strong start and you want guys that launch you into the playoffs by giving you those huge scores week in and week out.

With that in mind, I don't know if I can buy Andre knowing that he is just as likely to go 4/50 as he is 8/120/2. All WRs are inconsistent, but the best ones wil always score TDs, so you can handle their inconsistency in yardage and catches. Now if you are talking about him as a WR2, i agree, he would be a great option. However, the nature of Houston's offense doesn't really allow him to hit double digit TDs, it's clear that he is seen as a possession guy and the end zone will always be Arian foster territory. Its not randomness, this is the style of play that works for them and I dont see them moving away from it this year. 7 TDs, tops.

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I feel no pity for anybody who missed out on the playoffs because they traded away Calvin Johnson midseason thinking he was underperforming when he wasn't. And if they didn't trade him away then they didn't miss the playoffs because of him, as he was better than any other first round pick except for Foster. He was still the most consistent week to week guy and best overall WR too. Calvin Johnson's good weeks: 1,2,3,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17. You can't seriously tell me anybody missed the playoffs because their first round pick had 3 bad weeks - any team that held onto him all season was helped into the playoffs by that pick. Playoff games don't start week 7.

Now about the flukiness of TDs that nobody seems to believe in:

In 2011 there were 5 player with 10+ receiving TDs, in 2012 only one of those players (Gronk) still had 10+.

In 2010 there were 13 players with 10+ receiving TDs, in 2011 only two of those players (Megatron and Gronk) still had 10+.

In 2009 there were 8 players with 10+ receiving TDs, in 2010 not a single one of those players still had 10+.

How many of the 10 players that had 10+ receiving TDs in 2012 do you think will have that many this year?

But go ahead and discount Andre because you think all these other WRs like Dez and Julio are a lock for 10+ TDs when they are not, and don't be surprised if they have less TDs than Andre next year. Dez especially is not any more of a red zone target than Andre is, even Witten gets more looks than Dez does in the redzone - yet everybody has Dez in the top 5 and nobody has Andre in their top 5.

Anyways I think I've made my case and I'm beating a dead horse now, so I'll just let him be undervalued and draft him in most of my leagues. Andre is not a top 2 guy, but he's still a top 5 guy while he's being ranked closer to 10th. Everybody who likes value picks, you're not going to get more of a sure thing than Andre this next draft.

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I love the call-out. There should be TONS more of it, imo. But to echo predator: the priciest picks are always going to generate the fastest, most hyperbolic, and perhaps the most unfair complaints. Of course Calvin turned out to be monstrous even without the TDs, but I needed my mid and late round upstarts last year(RG3, DMart, Cobb) to keep me in contention. Anyway...I'll absolutely buy what you're selling on Andre . . . IF the many lower body injuries don't crop up in the summer.

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Calvin's standard scores in the first 9 weeks: 11, 9, 22, 5, 13, 3, 4, 12. I saw two guys in my leagues miss out on playoffs because their number 1 draft pick was giving them these low scores. Like with any other top pick, you usually expect 15+ a week from Calvin. Sure, playoffs don't start then, but by the time Calvin turned it around, these teams were already on the verge of being knocked out.

Andre has never had 10+ TDs in a season so i don't see where the fluky argument comes from. If anything, him getting 10+ TDs would be a fluke. The most he ever had, even when he was the best fantasy WR, was 9 and i would put that down to his QB being Matt Schaub.

Dez is easily better than Andre because the Cowboys pass it a lot more and have crappy defense, so they tend to be playing catch-up a lot more often than Houston's run-heavy, ball controlling offense. Atlanta pass it a ton, so Julio can get 1000/10 on volume alone, plus its easy to get open alongside Roddy and Tony G. Better QBs as well. Its easy to see the difference in how these WRs are used on their respective teams.

Fantasy decline!?!? I don't think you guys realize what an amazing season Dre had last year. Give him 7 TDs and would have scored more fantasy points than AJ Green. Give him 10 TDs and he would have been the #1 overall WR last year ahead of even Megatron.

Dre was #8 WR last season. He missed 9 games of the 2011 season, placing even lower on the WR ranks. He use to always finish top 1-3, when he was regarded as fantasy's #1 WR. Based on the #s he has dropped over the past seasons. #8 is still great but it is a statistical decline from being fantasy's #1 WR.

You have to ignore the if scenarios as you can attach if statements to any player and argue they were better or worse than their actual stats. In 2011 if Kinney Britt didn't get injured he was on pace to be the #1 WR.....but we all know he didn't finish #1. Calvin would have completely blown away all other WRs if he would've scored more TDs as well. There is some validity in some if statements though if they explain why a certain stat was lower due to flukiness of sorts, like how Calvin had lower TDs in 2012 because he was tackled at the 1 yard line 5 or 6 times last season.

I think everybody underestimates how much luck does indeed play a role in the number of TDs over a season - due to the small number of games played. There's no statistical difference between a guy scoring 8 TDs or one scoring 5 TDs or 11 TDs. People love to add explanations for things that are already explained by randomness alone and it drives me crazy.

I agree Andre will probably score between 7-9 TDs, but that puts him squarely in top 5 WR territory - which he is currently being drafted well outside of.

There is a lot of luck involved with TD totals, but at the same time skill plays a role in determining the overall TD output- it might not guarantee a player will score "X" TDs but it factors into increasing the odd's he scores "X" TDs. Small sample size does account for some statistical anomalies, but to say there's "no statistical" difference in a guy scoring 8, 5, or 11 TDs is absurd....perhaps you meant to say there's not a big difference in the abilities between 3 WRs that scored those different TD amounts.

Offensive scheme plays a huge role in Dre's projected TD totals. The Texans are run first and tend to run even more in the red zone and near the goal line, most likely due to Kubiak's conservative approach. This limits Dre's TD potential. He is a freak, he's bigger and faster than most CBs, since he can also high point the ball and has great hands- it's absurd he's never scored more than 10 TDs in a season. You think after 11 season's in the NFL, he's just unlucky to never reach that mark despite possessing elite skill for a red zone target. Luck plays a role in this, but it's also the Texan's conservative offensive approach. track records do matter when projecting players TD totals and since Dre is a victim or team philosophy one can't expect that to change to much when the Texans haven't changed there offensive scheme. You have to account for these factors to more accurately project his stats/value next season.

I don't know if you read all my posts, but I originally agreed he is someone to target drafting as most are low on him and he is still clearly a WR1. I don't think you and I are too far apart on our projection/ranking for Dre in 2013 (#6 WR on my board). It's just a decline based on the fact he use to be #1. Heck he might be #1 again if he could get the TD totals up, which i previously agreed his skills are good enough to get double digit TDs- it's just unlikely based on the factors i mentioned above.

As far as Calvin last season goes, I was in the same boat as you....yards were there, TDs are flukier than yardage totals. So it wasn't panic time and I held on to him & continued to start him on all of my teams.

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There is a lot of luck involved with TD totals, but at the same time skill plays a role in determining the overall TD output- it might not guarantee a player will score "X" TDs but it factors into increasing the odd's he scores "X" TDs. Small sample size does account for some statistical anomalies, but to say there's "no statistical" difference in a guy scoring 8, 5, or 11 TDs is absurd....perhaps you meant to say there's not a big difference in the abilities between 3 WRs that scored those different TD amounts.

I wasn't calling you out Ribobizert and I know you were saying Andre is still good too. I think we just mean different things when we say decline though. When I say it I'm forward looking, so by a decline I mean something happened to make us think future production will be lower. When you guys say it, it seems to just be observational that the realization of past output was lower. They are two separate and mostly unrelated concepts. It's like if Megatron had had 100 less yards last season, certainly that's a decline from what he actually did - but would it really lead to any decline in our future expectations of him? The future is all I care about when valuing people for drafts of trading.

Other than that, I'll just respond to this one particular thing though since for the rest of stuff there's not much else I can say except for stuff I've already said. I've made my case, you've made your case (a lot of it is similar to mine), predator has made his case, reasonable people can disagree - so all that's left is to see how it shakes out.

Anyways about the statistical significance thing, it's completely true. Assume the probability of a TD in each game is 50% (which I think is a reasonable approximation for most top WRs). Then if somebody played a ton of seasons you would expect 8 TDs to be the most common thing, but it wouldn't be unusual to score 5 TDs or 11 TDs.

In fact, if you were do statistical hypothesis testing on your hypothesis that the player still had a 50% chance of a TD over the course of 16 games, to reject your hypothesis (and therefore conclude that the player had more or less than a 50% chance of a TD) that player would have had to score 3 or less TDs or 13 or more TDs. So when I ask myself whether I think Andre actually had a 50% chance of a TD in every game last season - the answer is that his outcome of 4 TDs does not lead me to reject my null hypothesis and can be explained by random chance alone. Similarly with Dez's 12 TDs. There's no need for additional explanation, random chance does it already. If you don't believe me flip a bunch of coins 16 times each, even though they are all fair coins you'll still have a bunch that come up heads 5 times and a bunch that come up heads 11 times.

If anything, him getting 10+ TDs would be a fluke.

Agreed, it would be a fluke if Andre gets over 11. But it was also a fluke that Dez got 10+ TDs last year, and it was a fluke that Andre only got 4 and Calvin only got 5. Expect 7-9 for pretty much all of these guys, and due to flukiness a couple of them will have over 10 and a couple of them will have closer to 5. I think that when I showed that nobody besides Megatron and Gronk have even repeated double digit TDs in the past 3 years that I was showing that double digit TDs are fluky for pretty much anybody. I think Megatron and AJ Green can get them without flukiness, but no way on Dez.

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I think i gave a reasonable explanation for why Dez is more likely to score 10 TDs than Andre. The guy scored 10 in 6 weeks last year, and did so with an injury towards the end. For me, its not even a contest. As long as the guy is playing and not doing anything stupid to get himself suspended, he is easily a better WR and yes, a lock for 10 TDs.

Anyway, my words are on display here...Julio/Dez will definitely score more TDs than Andre and will outscore him in points (non PPR) as well. You can call me out on this at the end of the season if i am wrong...

Anyways, I'm not saying Andre is way better than them, just a little better than them and more importantly way cheaper. If I had to pull numbers out of the air, I'd say 40% chance Andre is the best of the three and a 75% chance Andre is better than at least one of them.

Three to one odds are pretty good, so I'll commit to the other side of your claim then, and say Andre outscores at least one of them. We'll see what happens come next year.

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Anyways about the statistical significance thing, it's completely true. Assume the probability of a TD in each game is 50% (which I think is a reasonable approximation for most top WRs). Then if somebody played a ton of seasons you would expect 8 TDs to be the most common thing, but it wouldn't be unusual to score 5 TDs or 11 TDs.

In fact, if you were do statistical hypothesis testing on your hypothesis that the player still had a 50% chance of a TD over the course of 16 games, to reject your hypothesis (and therefore conclude that the player had more or less than a 50% chance of a TD) that player would have had to score 3 or less TDs or 13 or more TDs. So when I ask myself whether I think Andre actually had a 50% chance of a TD in every game last season - the answer is that his outcome of 4 TDs does not lead me to reject my null hypothesis and can be explained by random chance alone. Similarly with Dez's 12 TDs. There's no need for additional explanation, random chance does it already. If you don't believe me flip a bunch of coins 16 times each, even though they are all fair coins you'll still have a bunch that come up heads 5 times and a bunch that come up heads 11 times.

Good breakdown, this post reminds me of my advanced business statistics class i took back in college. only difference is this was far more exciting as it did not pertain to business problem solving (6 sigma testing/etc.). Understanding the mathematical use/function of past season #s when projecting any players stats is highly relevant to fantasy sports- more so baseball than football (small vs large sample sizes). Too bad my professor wouldn't let me do a paper on fantasy football as he was quite the nerd with no love/ability to realize how applicable stats are to fantasy sports.

Love that there are other stat/math nerds in these forums. Congratulations guys you just witnessed a bromance moment through the use of mathematics in football.

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"Some" opponents suggest Andre Johnson has lost "perhaps a half-step" and "isn't as explosive" as he once was entering his age-32 season.

Although Johnson put up monster 2012 stats following a slow start, it was noticeable on tape that he's become a less explosive route runner versus man coverage. His production was also buoyed by volume; he finished fifth in the NFL in targets. Per the National Football Post's Len Pasquarelli, the Texans have "privately allowed" they must develop a future No. 1 receiver because Johnson is no longer a long-term solution. They drafted DeAndre Hopkins in the first round.

So, is this off-season fluff due to lack of July news or is there something to this? My current draft plan has him as a sneaky value pick in late 3rd/early 4th round.