Arizona Diamondbacks

The Reds will begin a four game series on Thursday, at Chase Field in Phoenix, against the Arizona Diamondbacks (22-33). The Diamondbacks .400 win percentage is the second worst in the MLB, trailing only the Chicago Cubs (.373). Their -61 run differential is the worst in the MLB, and it’s not even close. The next worst run differential in the MLB is the Astros at -40.

You can now go ahead and throw away all those numbers I just gave you. The Diamondbacks got off to a horrendous 8-22 start in 2014, and at that point had a run differential of -63. They have been much, much better since then, going 14-11, and have a run differential of +2.

*please note: all stats listed below only include games played through 5/27/14.

The Offense/Defense

The Reds and Diamondbacks are just about even offensively, with the Dbacks having slightly better power,and the Reds having slightly better OBP. The Reds are slightly better on the basepaths, but the big difference in these two teams are defensively. If you don’t prefer the defensive metric (where the Reds have a 33.2 defensive value to the Dbacks 1.5), the Diamondbacks have committed 40 errors (.980 fielding %, tied 24th in the MLB), while the Reds have just 23 errors (.988 fielding %, tied 1st in the MLB).

The Lineup

Manager Kirk Gibson has shaken up his lineup quite a bit, as you might expect for a team with a 21-33 record. Paul Goldschmidt has batter 3rd in all 55 of the Diamondbacks games, and Miguel Montero has batted cleanup 34 times. Outside of that, it looks like Gibson mixes and matches. Here is my best guess based on their most recent lineups:

The Bench

The Pitching Matchups

Every pitching matchups looks pretty favorable for the Reds. It will certainly be intriguing to see our old friend Bronson Arroyo pitch against the Redlegs on Friday night. Brandon McCarthy is pitching the best of any Diamondbacks starter at the moment. Over McCarthy’s last three starts, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

I am looking forward to the Arroyo / Leake matchup on Friday. Leake learned from Arroyo when he was a Red. They are both wiley instead of overpowering. Don’t think the youngster has copied the high leg throw though.

There is absolutely no excuse for the Big Lutz to not start ALL of the 1st 3 games of the series and a pretty compelling argument for the Big Lutz to start at either 1B or LF against Miley in the 4th game of the series. The other 4 options to Lutz are so far below average it’s sickening, yet Bryan continues to run them out there every game. None of these players are going to get better. Ludwick and Schumaker will probably play worse over the next season+ due to age regression. For the Reds to not seek a better option now AND evaluate a better option for next season is ludicrous. Pena has played marvelously at 1B in Votto’s absence, but even if Pena is playing 1B (and that should only be against a RHP), the black hole in LF is still omnipresent. Lutz has a very poor split against LHP, but he needs to play and the Reds need to find out how effective or not effective he can be as a starter against both RHP and LHP. All of the other options have had more than sufficient opportunities and failed miserably.

OPS+: 44 for Ramon Santiago

Steve made a pretty compelling argument in the game wrapup post for a regular day off for Phillips. There’s the built in playing time for Santiago in addition to occasionally spelling Cozart at SS. There is no reason for taking Frazier off 3B to play 1B in Votto’s absence and filling Santiago at 3B. That move weakens the offense and weakens the defense without any positive justification.

Heisey can occasionally spell Hamilton in CF or Bruce in RF against a LHP in addition to his pinch hitting responsibilities. Schumaker can rarely spell Hamilton in CF against a RHP in addition to his pinch hitting responsibilities. Ludwick can rarely spell Lutz in LF against a LHP and fill in in LF against a LHP when Lutz plays 1B until Votto returns.