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BY THE TIME THE ECONOMY HAD WRUNG OUT the excesses of the Internet bubble, Silicon Valley-or more precisely, California's Santa Clara County-had lost 200,000 jobs, or more than 20% of its total job base. At one point in 2002, its unemployment rate hit 8.4%. This time, I fear, could be even worse.

There were even rumors that Apple (AAPL) was cutting back hours for some employees of its retail stores (the company wouldn't comment on the reports). As it happens, I visited an Apple store in Palo Alto recently, and the place was bustling; I can't imagine they need to shrink the workforce in that store. But if even Apple is considered a potential source of lost jobs, it's more evidence that almost no one in the Valley feels entirely secure. That's not good for retailers. It's not good for restaurants. It's not good for real-estate prices. It's not good for anyone.

OFTEN ON MY TECH TRADER DAILY BLOG, reader comments accuse sell-side analysts of talking their firms' books. I doubt the analysts I quote are trying to manipulate the market to their firms' advantage, but it's easy to see the potential conflicts when a securities firm also runs money.

Earlier this month, UBS software analyst Heather Bellini cut her rating on VMware to Sell from Neutral, chopping her target price on the stock to $15 from $27. VMware, to refresh your memory, provides "server virtualization" software, technology that allows IT departments to make more efficient use of their hardware. A spinoff from
EMCemc -1.6966759002770082%EMC Corp.U.S.: NYSEUSD28.39
-0.49-1.6966759002770082%
/Date(1425420006685-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
10899345AFTER HOURSUSD28.111
-0.279-0.9827404015498415%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
1025312
P/E Ratio
21.186567164179106Market Cap
57415951935.0466
Dividend Yield
1.620288834096513% Rev. per Employee
382473More quote details and news »emcinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(EMC), the stock has been on a wild ride; VMware came public at $29 in August 2007, at one point traded north of $100, and is now $10 or so below the IPO price.

Bellini wrote in a research note that the Street consensus estimates for VMware's software-license growth for both Q4 and all of 2009 are too high. For next year, she sees profits of 57 cents a share; the consensus forecast is $1.13. For the fourth quarter, she sees 15 cents, way below the Street's 26 cents. Her takeaway: "We expect Street numbers to come down considerably the next few months, and as such we would be reducing positions in the stock."

What makes that fascinating is that as of Oct. 31, the single largest holder of VMW shares other than majority owner EMC is UBS Global Asset Management, which held 16.4 million shares; that position, which represents 30.1% of the company's common shares, was up from 10.1 million shares earlier in the month, according to filings with the SEC. (EMC owns all of the Class B shares, which gives it 98% voting control.) Wherever UBS Global gets advice, it clearly is not listening to Heather Bellini.

Turning Around: The Nasdaq Composite has lost 35% over the past three months, but last week's 10.9% bounce snapped its three-week losing streak.

THIS HAS BEEN A ROUGH YEAR for solar stocks, which have been hurt by tight credit, a stronger dollar, falling prices and slowing demand. But many investors still see huge promise in the sector. Among other things, the bulls contend the Obama administration will invest heavily in alternative energy. Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel last week noted speculation that Obama could push for revisions to the recently extended tax-credit program for solar investment; he says possible changes could include replacing tax credits with cash refunds, increasing the tax-credit percentage for two years, providing financing for solar installations and pushing for solar panels on federal buildings. (Not a new idea: Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House; Ronald Reagan ripped them down.)

However, the U.S. remains a relatively small factor in the global solar market. More than 75% of the current market is in Europe, where demand is crumbling as new projects find difficulty getting financing. And it seems unlikely U.S. demand in 2009, no matter how hard the new president tries to push for solar, can fully overcome weaker European demand. For one thing, Spain, which has been the world's second-biggest solar market after Germany, has set a 500-megawatt cap on its solar-subsidiary program for next year; the total this year will be substantially higher.

Gordon Johnson, analyst with Hapoalim Securities, asserted in a research note last week that 2008 solar installations in Spain will reach 2.1 gigawatts, nearly twice his previous estimate and much higher than others expect. That would make Spain a larger market than Germany this year. While that sounds bullish, it's not. If he's right, the fall-off in Spain next year will be far worse than most analysts are expecting. Johnson thinks there is no way the world can absorb the 1.6 GW drop he sees coming in Spain. Johnson forecasts that, as a result, growth in global solar installations will drop from 61% this year to a minus 2.5% next year. His conclusion: The entire solar food chain will be hurt by "the pending massive decline" in the world's largest solar market.

Our Gadget of the Week: Baby It's Hot Out Here

SunGlo A244; Price: $1,239. Stats: About 7.75 feet high; weighs close to 75 lbs., mainly because of the weighted base. Features: Electric starter and safety shutoff. Staialess-steel frame available in four colors. Burns for six hours on a standard propane tank. Website: infradyne.com
Barron's graphics

EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S in central New Jersey, cold enough to discourage all but the squirrels -- and my wife and me -- from sitting outside after sunset.

We're sipping our pre-dinner cocktails and watching the last of the leaves fall as we sit under a SunGlo patio heater -- a lamppost-like device powered by bottled propane, with an "umbrella hat" that reflects heat. We're warm as toast, and practically ready for snow.

Patio heaters come in all shapes and sizes, and are powered by a variety of fuels. But most hardware-store models rust within a year or two, and many don't heat especially well. What makes the SunGlo different -- and far more expensive -- are its commercial construction and life expectancy, measured in decades.

The heater arrived in parts, but was easy to assemble in just 20 minutes, with the aid of nothing fancier than a screwdriver and a wrench. Add a standard propane tank, depress the button on the pole that lights the pilot, wait a few seconds and turn on the heat.

The 40,000 BTU model I've been testing generates a blast of heat within a six-foot radius, and generates at least some warmth up to 12 feet away. Other models are available, including ceiling-mounted heaters and units powered by natural gas.

The SunGlo brand is owned by Infrared Dynamics, a private company based in Yorba Linda, Calif.