Greenhill, Lazard & Evercore Up 1% As Analyst Tweaks Views

By Murray Coleman

Analysts at Ticonderoga Securities this morning are lowering their 2011 earnings estimates on Greenhill & Co. (GHL). But they’re making those tweaks based on changes in their models and offer fairly positive comments on the asset manager’s growth prospects.

Ticonderoga now believes that GHL will earn $1.49 a share, down from $1.85. “The revision is reflective of a slower start to the year and a better understanding of the operating model. We expect GHL to earn 16 cents in Q1’11 vs. 37 cents previously,” lead analyst Douglas Sipkin wrote.

At the same time, he added that the company’s operating model is “less variable than we thought.”

“If we ran record advisory revenues of $366 million through, it would generate EPS of $2 (per share) on the current model (assuming a 20% discretionary cash payout),” Sipkin added. “Accordingly, while we are encouraged by the pickup in activity, we still believe reasonable forecasts are in the $1-$1.50 range, which would imply favorable valuations …”

The stock is up today by 1.9%, or $1.23, to $66.05 a share.

Sipkin is also reiterating his earnings estimates for Lazard (LAZ) of 2011 EPS of $2.86 a share. For the first-quarter, he’s expecting 40 cents a share. “It is too early, but there may be upside to second-half estimates based on the strength of the (company’s) backlog (of M&A deals),” Sipkin added.

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Chris Dieterich has covered the U.S. stock market for The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. He is a graduate of Regis University and the Missouri School of Journalism.