MARKET COMMENTARY

Afternoon Comments April 20, 2018

Lower closes as the final settlements come through for corn and soybeans this afternoon. Both nearby and new crop corn closed down 5 1/2 cents, ending the week nearly 10c lower vs. last Friday. Soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents today, finishing
the week nearly 25 cents lower vs. last Friday.

It feels like the news cycle has moved on from the myriad of stories surrounding Argentina, potential trade wars with China, and even the “late planting” narrative. While most of the state of Iowa is
currently unfit for corn or soybean planting (and will probably stay that way for another week), the extended forecast is looking very conducive to planting progress. Right now, that’s what most in the market are focused on (nationally). I think most
would agree that we aren’t experiencing an “early spring”. Conversely, I also think we aren’t experiencing “late planting” – at least not yet. Several estimates approximate that the Iowa producer can plant the corn crop in
two weeks or less. If that’s true AND the current forecast holds, the “late spring, late planting” story is likely a non-issue come May 15th.

Outside markets are mixed with the dollar revisiting it’s range-bound highs at 90.50, crude oil nearing $70/barrel, soy crush still strong at 139.75, and limited strength behind the livestock markets. We are entering the time when the market
builds weather premium/risk into the price discovery process. With more risk (weather) often comes more volatility and opportunity. We have to metaphorically kill the ‘18/’19 crop at least a couple times before the season is over. It’s important to stay poised
& ready to take advantage of price swings when they occur.