Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Trump Poll Numbers That Could Be Trouble for the GOP if He Becomes the Nominee

In Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling this month, “circus” was one of the words most frequently used by voters to describe the 2016 presidential election. Many attribute the circus-like atmosphere to the campaign of businessman Donald Trump.

If this electoral cycle is like a circus, here are its three rings: Republican primary voters who are Trump supporters, Republican primary voters who do not support Mr. Trump, and the rest of the U.S. electorate. Mr. Trump’s supporters make up the smallest ring. It is in the larger two rings that the general election will be decided, and Mr. Trump’s poor standing among those voters suggests the GOP will have a challenging road to November if he is the party’s nominee.

CLICK GRAPH to ENLARGE

Among Republicans who are voting for Donald Trump in the primaries, 90% have positive feelings toward Mr. Trump personally while just 4% are negative, according to the March WSJ/NBC polling. A near-unanimous 98% of those voters say they could see themselves supporting him for president.

Should Mr. Trump win the Republican nomination, however, he will need all GOP primary voters to coalesce around his campaign to be competitive in November. And in this second ring, he does not fare nearly as well. Republican primary voters who have cast ballots or caucused for other candidates make up a greater share of the Republican electorate than Mr. Trump’s supporters. Among non-Trump Republican primary voters, just 23% have positive feelings toward Mr. Trump and 59% have negative feelings, the WSJ/NBC poll found. And 59% of non-Trump Republican primary voters said they could not see themselves supporting Mr. Trump for president.

7 comments:

cimbri
said...

There's no one else who can compete in the general election, but Trump. If mainstream pubs would join in with Trump, and merge their power, we could beat Hillary, but I'm concerned we're getting the beginnings of another throw the election deal by the moderate wing. They did that to Ollie North years ago in Virginia. They ran some corporate stooge Republican as 3rd party, he drained away enough votes and cost North the senate seat.

No offense to Cruz supporters, but come on guys - he hasn't won a single Southern state; he won his home state of Texas, a few prairie states and Maine. His support is way too narrow to win the presidency, even if we suspended all rules, and handed him the nomination. Trump can compete in at least 40 states. It's time to wake up and respect the voters.

Honesty requires that people, and the above chart, face the fact that large numbers of Democrats and Democrat Party leaning voters are Trump's followers. In 2016 Texas and Nevada had twice as many participate in their GOP primary since 2012, and Virginia had quadrupled the participation since their 2012 GOP primary.

The above chart clearly is not honest, since they LIE about this fact. They pretend that people using the GOP Primary in 2016 are actual Republicans. OBVIOUSLY when GOP primaries show up with doubled and quadrupled participation, one cannot keep lying about it. The people voting in the 2016 GOP Primaries are unfairly lumped together as "the Republicans."

But Cimbri is playing dumb here as he tries to ignore the glaring fact that Trump is the consensus loser of the century in America. This part is fact. The conclusion for the American "general election race" is that we all soundly and forcefully reject Trump in America, the OPPOSITE of Cimbri's claim that, "Trump is the only one who can win the general election."

Even from this misleading chart, we easily see that adding “the Democrat” population’s great animosity for Trump entirely dooms his candidacy in a general election contest, it is NOT an enhancement for Trump as Cimbri astonishingly claimed.

Trump is targeting disgruntled working class Democrats, not Republicans. Hillary doesn't want this group voting for the GOP nominee; so Hillary and her "news” network campaign staff invented Trump. In reality Trump is a poser only pretending he’s Republican now.

In reality the Hollywood Reality TV celebrity is a lifelong, deep-pocketed Democrat Party donor, enthusiastic friend of Obama, and family intimate with Hillary and Bill Clinton.

FYI, Trump said the serial rapist Bill Clinton is his ideal type of President.

Anonymous, you just made a good argument to get behind Trump. You admitted that Trump gets a lot of Democrat support. Since the GOP never did anything about mass immigration in the last 50 years, you can't win the presidency without crossover support. Sorry but the Trump anti-immigration voters are not to blame for the situation created by the unholy alliance between GOP cheap labor advocates and Democrats looking for voters.

We have successfully presented a rare GOP candidate who can win the popular vote in the presidency. Cruz is a non-starter, he will barely win the Goldwater states, Kasich is going nowhere. If we don't run Trump, then we need to stop the charade of having any primaries, and just turn it over to the smoke filled rooms and party bigshots. We have a guy who is pro-2nd Amendment, strong on immigration, for corporate tax cuts to repatriate corporate HQs. He's fund raised and supported the last 2 Republican nominees, and of course we know he didn't like the Bushes, and neither did I, quite frankly.

Ultimately, it's up to the people whose candidates lost, to get behind the nominee. That's true every 4 years, and it will decide if we beat Hillary or not. If people will not grow up and do their civic duty, then don't blame Trump, look in the mirror. My conscience will be clear.

7% of Republicans believe that Trump represents the values of the Republican Party, and just 8% of Democrats believe Trump is representative of the Republican Party.

So the 93% and 92% are correct: Trump does not represent Republican Party values. Democrats very publicly declare this, and Republicans are deeply emphatic that Trump is not one of us. There is zero advantage in a nominee who opposes everything for which our Republican Party stands.

"Voting for Trump is a version of national suicide ... Don't vote for your own cancer, you're better than that." ~ Louis C.K.

This directly reflects on Cimbri's pleas that Republicans destroy our nation. Cimbri suggests that Trump, the most disliked candidate, would win in a general election. Ludicrous.

Not to mention it is immoral and cynical, the evil idea to destroy our own land has no up side. With our country destroyed, there is little attraction to obtain power over the toxic residuals.

For the record, the ONLY rule that matters is that Trump doesn't become the GOP nominee without the majority of Republicans voting for him. Quite often this mechanism is in place in America. Then there are runoff elections. There is NO change of rules needed for majority rule.

The party fended off libertarian interlopers by making a technical rule change, and such changes are NOT rare or strange. This is simply normal. The media is on Hillary's payroll, and they are lying to manipulate voters.

Some rule changes could constitute strange, arcane protocols, so our delegates must select rules with maximum satisfaction that they control the rules. Republicans do not want Trump, so rules that give our people the chance to find the best alternate ought to guide that process.