–5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

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In what’s a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I’m quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won’t be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Happy Endings (some F)

😳

0.49

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Red Widow

😳

0.54

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

😐 😐 😐

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

😐 😐 😐

0.72

Last Man Standing* (F)

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.74

The Family Tools

😳

0.78

The Neighbors*

😐 😐 😐

0.87

Nashville

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.94

Revenge

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.94

Suburgatory

1.01

Castle

1.09

The Middle

1.12

How To Live With Your Parents

😐 😐 😐

1.15

Once Upon A Time

1.23

Scandal

1.40

Grey’s Anatomy

1.52

Modern Family

2.06

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.