SPY 5 Yr Price Range

A break in the price range above to the low side in conjunction with a RSI break below 50 would send SPY to at least 2 or more of the above marked targets (191, 181, 171, 161).

BUT first, a test of and bounce off of 191-193 (lower channel support) seems mostly likely. The strength of that bounce should tell us whether new highs within the tightening range are coming or finally a break below. SPY could hit 209 by this Dec WITHOUT breaking the upper channel.

Agreed. But a bounce off support of that lower trend line (191-193) seems highly likely. A weak bounce without new highs (197-198) is my current opinion. But a bounce to new highs from there may keep the whole thing rolling a bit longer.