By ditching Iran deal, Trump hurts our credibility and our interests

President Donald Trump gives a thumbs-up as he walks across the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Sunday, April 9, 2017. Trump is returning from a trip to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.(Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais, AP)

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal that President Donald Trump recently abrogated did give Iran disproportionate benefits. But there’s more to what meets the eye.

True, the deal lifted economic sanctions against Iran as its tyrannical ruling cult was destabilizing the Middle East and suppressing its own people, especially women and non-Shias. Moreover, Iran finally touched billions of its petro dollars that had been sitting in escrow accounts in various countries. The deal also signified the west's de facto recognition of Iran's regional relevance.

To top it all off, in approximately three more years from today, Iran would have been able to buy conventional weapons on the world market. Five years after that, Iran would have been able to buy even ballistic missiles. Imagine Hezbollah and Hamas getting hold of such projectiles!

There is something else that Trump naturally did not notice, as it’s beyond his ken: President Barack Obama’s secretary of state had to get personally involved with the tortuous Iran parleys. Obama himself had to throw his presidency's weight into the ring. Remember the SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) rounds with the Soviet Union? Treaties were finalized by the ambassadors or civil servants. American president and his secretaries generally appeared for the signing only.

I am sure Iran's anti-democracy establishment and all pathological America-haters – outside and inside America – enjoyed this cheapening of America. But what would Trump know about that? Almost everything he says or does is a stab in the back of America’s prestige and values system. His presidency is a boon for America-haters.
I admire Obama for having shown the strength and courage in reaching the deal. There were only two options: Let Iran pursue its nuclear agenda uninterruptedly or wage a war against it. America was in no position to start yet another war in the Middle East. Tehran knew that. That emboldened it to test America's patience. Those who pillory Obama for approving the deal should really blame George W. Bush who wasted America's trump cards on a foreign policy strip-poker in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The only way to conduct powerful diplomacy is to let a stick dangle over the other side as you offer it carrots. Bush had broken the sticks. When you have only carrots at your disposal, you won’t get much from the other side. It will take America time to rebuild its diplomatic deck of awe-triggering options.

When the 2015 deal materialized, I wrote that Iran had simply bought time to take its money and would eventually renege and that Republicans would continue to try to torpedo the deal regardless of its value to America. I further stated that I suspected that the Iranians were probably hoping that the Republicans would gain control of the White House and Congress in 2016 and that as much as dictators hated democracy, they understood its dynamics in America.

Trump has delivered Iran’s ruling cult its wish. Iran had obtained some cash so it could persist with its propagation of hatred and terror in the region. It was probably eager to resume its nuclear program. It can now do that sooner than later, as Trump has freed it of its responsibility to abide by the deal. The abrogation has caused a crack in international coordination on non-proliferation matters. The European Union is annoyed, and understandably so: It was a signatory. Trade wars may ensue that Tehran will certainly exploit. China and Russia will stimulate this exploitation.

Iran will now try to extract political concessions from Europe in return for mere symbolism. Before the pre-2015 deal, even as the entire world, armed with Security Council’s support, pressured Iran to limit its nuclear activities to its civilian needs, Iran persisted with its nuclear bomb ambitions. It can do that now with much more ease.
Trump’s new sanctions on Iran are not U.N. sanctions and thus not binding under the international law. True, international trade is pegged a lot with the U.S. dollar and this gives Trump leverage on other countries’ trade with Iran. But the euro is not the ruble, so it can substitute for the dollar. If Trump is thinking of obtaining new Security Council restrictions on Iran, he is mistaken. Before China and Russia think of vetoing the move, France will do it.

When the 2015 deal happened, it was obvious that a war of nerves had started. Iran understood that it had to abide by it to regain some strength before it ditched the deal and revived its temporarily suspended nuclear project. America knew that it had at least 10 years to recover from the fatigue of two wars before negotiating a new deal from a position of strength. So the sunset attribute was a smart move by Obama.

Trump’s insecurities that make him undermine Obama’s legacy are now hurting national security. A relentless strict enforcement of the deal would have made it virtually impossible for Iran, at the deal’s expiry, to reactivate its nuclear facilities with a flick. Instead of strictly enforcing the deal, a pococurante Trump ditched it, injuring America’s credibility and thus inflicting a double whammy on American interests.