Thursday, April 7, 2011

You know, sometimes I scare myself when I don my swami hat to make predictions, and not just because it lowers my apparent IQ by forty points. It seems I am right an uncanny number of times (Mrs. Talk would take issue with that, of course--perhaps with a rolling pin). Still, there’s no gainsaying the fact that I correctly predicted that there would be no layoffs in 2010. Some called me crazy (Mrs. Talk would agree on that one), but the fact remains that layoffs were averted. I also correctly called the ever diminishing Teacher’s Choice allotment, and my prediction that at least one of your admins would be a dick is beyond question.

Nevertheless, it came as a shock even to me when I basically nailed the resignation of “Chancellor” Cathie Black. When she first took office, I predicted that she would be out by April 1, and I only missed the mark by six days.

One question remains unanswered about this surprise announcement. First of all, did Cathie resign, or was she fired? I’d say fired, because Dennis Walcott’s appointment came just moments after her meeting with Bloomberg, so apparently he had this move in mind for a while. Of course, it is also possible that Mayor4Life conducted the same exhaustive search for Black’s replacement that he did for Black herself, by which I mean Walcott happened to be in the room at the time.

Another question that hangs in the air is: Why now? Sure, Cathie’s poll numbers hit a new low last week, but she’s never exactly been Justin Bieber. I think the truth is that Black was brought in to be the corporate chainsaw who would oversee the massive layoffs that would have occurred had Bloomie gotten his way on eliminating seniority. Now that Bloomberg's plan to end "LIFO" is dead, Cathie is out.

I’m sure the burning question in your mind is—What can we expect from Dennis Walcott? And what does Mr. Talk have to say about it? Here are my predictions:

Walcott is African American, so I expect he and Bloomie will take one more shot at LIFO. They’ll send Walcott out to black neighborhoods to claim that laying off new teachers will disproportionately affect their neighborhoods.

Once that fails, Walcott will announce some miraculous savings he has found/cuts he can make/wallet he has found in the street, and call off layoffs for 2011. Walcott then appears to be a hero and Bloomie is off the hook and doesn’t have to fire precious newbie teachers like Ruben Brosbe.

Other than that, absolutely nothing will change. Bloomie will still be rich. You will still end up buying your own staples and construction paper. One of your admins will continue to be a dick.

Mr. Talk, you outdo Nostradamus with your soothsaying. You are a modern prophet, an oracle....a shaman. You are on a par with Karnac the Magnificent. We bow to you. I predict dark skies tonight and light skies tomorrow.......