India's Mystery Man

Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, held a virtual love-in with Barack Obama in Washington last week, taking the unusual step of co-authoring an op-ed in the Washington Post with the U.S. president on Tuesday that said: “The true potential of our relationship has yet to be fully realized.”

This summit had success written all over it, with promises of agreements on trade, investment and technology. And indeed, after a decade of flirting with a new strategic partnership, India now seems to many like just another big modernizing power that America can probably count on in Asia, especially when it comes to the rising power of China. But let’s not move too fast.

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Modi is, in fact, the biggest man of mystery on the international stage today. Based on his past actions and statements, it’s not at all clear whether he’ll end up being, as advertised, India’s great reformer and America’s new best buddy, or whether he will seek to turn the world’s largest democracy into a Hindu nationalist state—one that could end up allying with, of all people, a decidedly undemocratic leader whom Modi professes to admire: Vladimir Putin.

Today, like any good mystery man in the middle, Modi is being wooed by both the United States and Russia, which find themselves once again on opposite sides of a Cold War-like divide. And despite his visit to the United States, Modi has been playing hard to get.

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As recently as July—well after Putin had annexed Crimea and threatened the rest of Ukraine—Modi was speaking so warmly of the Russian leader at a meeting in Brazil that it was hard not to feel that his message was really being directed at his suitors in Washington. Modi praised Putin for being firm on his views, saying, “Whether on Brazil, India or Africa, you have very good, precise and substantial views [and] a very clear and frank position as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.” He added: “Even a child in India, if asked to say who is India’s best friend, will reply it is Russia because Russia has been with India in times of crisis”—a clear reference to moments in history when Western powers arrayed themselves against India, as in 1998, when Russia refused to back sanctions after India tested a nuclear device.

Delhi’s “non-alignment” policy—and its friendliness toward Moscow—dates back to the late 1940s, and it will not be easily reversed, Modi’s overtures notwithstanding. Consider India’s refusal to support U.S. and EU sanctions in the Ukrainian crisis, its non-recognition of the independence of Kosovo and Delhi’s neutral stance during the Russian-Georgian War. In March, Shivshankar Menon, the national security adviser of Modi’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, declared that Russia had “legitimate” interests in Ukraine. Modi has effectively continued Singh’s uncritical approach, and Putin, in turn, recently thanked India for its “restrained and objective” stance. Asked recently on CNN how he viewed Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Modi responded that Putin’s critics were hardly in a superior moral position: “In the world right now, a lot of people want to give advice, but look within them, and they, too, have sinned in some way.”

Russia and India have already established very close military and economic ties, including plans for a multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline deal and discussions about collaboration in space exploration. Russia and India are also already cooperating on the nuclear front: Putin is going to India in December, and Modi has suggested he should visit the Kodankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tamilnadu. Russia’s state atomic energy company, Rosatom, works on this project—the same company that has worked on the Iranian nuclear plant.

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Peter Eltsov is senior research fellow and associate professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U. S. government.