Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 032120
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY
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