Category: Stat Check

POST ALL STAR BREAK DEFENSE OF THE UTAH JAZZ
• Jazz are #7 in NBA at forcing “non-smart shots” (paint non restricted or mid range) 45% of opponents shots are those type of shots. Portland is best at 49.5% followed by Warriors, Hornets, Bulls, Spurs and Pacers.

• Jazz are allowing 30.7% of shots in the restricted area (13th in the NBA) best is Warriors at 28.5% and Memphis at 28.7%. Teams are shooting 57.2% in the restricted area the 8th lowest in NBA. Bulls are best at 53.6%

• 17.6% of shots against the Jazz are in the paint non-restricted the 4th most in the NBA. Teams are shooting 35% 3rd lowest since ASB. Sixers are best at 32%

• 26.7% of opponents shots are mid-range jumpers. 12th in the NBA. Portland opponents take 31.8%. Teams are shooting just 35% against the Jazz in mid-range lowest in the NBA.

• Jazz are allowing 7% of shot to be corner 3’s 15th in the NBA. Teams are shooting 39.4% on corner 3’s 18th in the NBA

• Jazz are allowing 17.9% of shots to be above the break 3’s, 4th lowest rate in NBA. Spurs are best at 16.2%. Teams are only shooting 30.7% on those shots 2nd lowest rate in the NBA.

• Not only are Jazz forcing good shots but they are defending the actual shot best in the NBA. Based on league averages teams should have scored 1855 points against the Jazz since the ASB but the Jazz have only allowed 1722 in that time period. The -133 shot point defense is best in the NBA, next closest is Indiana at -82.

• Other way to view that. Based on where opponents shoot against the Jazz they should average .98 pts per shot (7th best in NBA and league average is .99 pts per shot). Instead since all-star break the Jazz are allowing .91 pts per shot

• Here is the impact of forcing teams to shoot in the “non smart” areas. Pelicans have the 3rd most impactful defense holding opponents to.04 pts per shot below the expected pts per shots based on where shot is taken. However, the Pelicans 15th in forcing “non smart shots” so their actual points per shot slips to 6th overall. The Hornets, on the other hand, have a non-impact full defense. Only .01 pts per shot for 11th in the league, but they are the 3rd best team in the NBA at forcing “non-smart” shots . Their actual pts per shot is the exact same as the Pelicans.

This week I debuted a new stat, PAAC. PAAC represents points above average created by an individual player over a game. More detailed, each players performance on a scoring opportunity (FGA or trip to the FT line) is compared to the league average scoring opportunity (FGA or trip to the FT line). Over the course of a game the player get his PAAC value.

My fundamental belief in evaluating the game of basketball is to narrow it down to the efficiency of a single possession. The value of players should be based on how they impact each of those possessions. Defensively this is very difficult. Offensively, I believe this takes a huge stride in showing the value of a player inside of a game.

I have created Players Points Above Average Created (PAAC). PAAC (this stat needs a new acronym) shows what players have the largest offensive impact on every game. PAAC evaluates how each player uses a scoring opportunity (FGA or trip to the free throw line) in comparison to the average in the NBA. Therefore, by the end of a game PAAC shows how many points his team has gained or lost compared to an average player in the NBA using those scoring opportunities.

Kevin Durant leads the NBA at 3.9 PAAC (pts per game above average). Steph Curry (3.5) and James Harden (3.3) are next. If a team increases their offensive efficiency (pts per 100 possessions) by one point over the course of a season it translates to roughly 2.7 wins.

Last year, Kevin Durant and LeBron James had historic offensive seasons. Durant lead the NBA with a PAAC of 4.8 and LeBron James was a 4.5. The next closest was James Harden at 3.2 PAAC.

Lance Stephenson does the most damage to his team leaving the Hornets -2.9 pts below league average in his scoring opportunities each night. Michael Carter Williams and Kobe Bryant (-2.7) have the next highest negative impact on their team.

Last year, the 3 players with the worst impact on their team, who played at least 40 games were Josh Smith -2.7 PAAC, Michael Carter Williams -2.1 and Trey Burke -1.8.

Fundamentally, if a player is scoring 23 points a game but using an excessive amount of scoring opportunities he is not helping his team win even if he is scoring 23 points a game. On the flip side it is possible the player using just 10 scoring points a game is doing it with such an amazing efficiency that he is putting the team further above the average than players who score at a higher volume.

The most interesting finding with PAAC is the value of dunkers and 3 point shooters. Dallas is +2.6 above the league average on the few scoring opportunities used by Tyson Chandler. Chandler ranks the 6th best PAC in the NBA. Despite only using 7.5 scoring opportunities a night Tyson Chandler has the 6th biggest positive impact of an offensive player. Other dunkers, DeAndre Jordan is 8th, Hassan Whiteside is 11th and Brandan Wright is 14th.

Kyle Korver only uses 9 scoring opportunities a night, but is the 4th highest impact player in the NBA. Korver is +3.1 pts per game above average on his scoring opportunities. Only Durant, Curry and Harden move their team further above average on a nightly basis. Other high volume three point shooters are also on the top of the list, JJ Redick is 10th and Wesley Matthews is 17thin PAAC.

They are sorted by LOCKE OFFENSIVE RATING (in red). This weighs a player’s use of an individual possession and his ability to get shots off. 0 is replacement level. 10 is league average. 20 is a high-level starter. 30 is elite. 40 is LeBron and Durant.

To the left of LOCKE OFFENSIVE RATING is Cringe/Grin, which shows how much a player uses an individual possession above or below the league average. Negative is below league average. LHM is the Larry H Miller ranking system, which heavily favors big men.

To the right of the LOCKE OFFENSIVE RATING is ACTIVITY, which is the impact a player has on the game. This was a system kept by another head coach in the NBA.

To the right of that is JACK, which is how often a player jacks up a shot. Then to the right of that is % of possessions used to shoot a 2, a 3, go to the line and turn the ball over.

Finally, SO is Scoring Opportunties per 40 minutes on the floor. A scoring opportunity is a FGA or a trip to the line. Then is PTS/SO and PTS/Possession. Possession includes turnovers. Finally, there’s PTS per FGA in the black.

The last two are the amount of possessions a players uses and how many minutes he is playing per night.

Today I got into a really good discussion with a super basketball mind about whether or not the adage of defense being inside-out is still accurate. With the proliferation of the 3-pointer, has defense become outside in?

To get a statistical answer to this, I broke the league into three categories: The top 20%, middle 60% and bottom 20%. Then I broke it into three categories: stopping shot attempts in the restricted area, stopping shots from 3-point range overall, and stopping just corner threes. Then I looked at defending the shot (or FG%) from those same three areas.

From there I looked at the combined winning percentage of the teams in the top, middle and bottom of each section.

ATTEMPTS

The top 20% of teams at preventing shots in the restricted area have winning percentage of 50.6%.

The middle 60% at preventing shots in restricted area have winning percentage of 51.9%.

The bottom 20% at preventing shots in restricted area have winning percentage of 44%.

The top 20% at preventing 3-point shots win at 56.2%.

The middle 60% at preventing 3-point shots win at 46.7%.

The bottom 20% at preventing 3-point shots win at 53.5%.

The top 20% at preventing corner three attempts have a winning percentage of 60%.

The middle 60% at preventing corner three attempts have a winning percentage of 49%.

The bottom 20% at preventing corner three attempts have a winning percentage of 42.2%.

MAKES

The top 20% of teams defending the restricted area shot win at 63.3%.

The middle 60% defending the restricted area shot win at 46.6%.

The bottom 20% defending the restricted area shot win at 46.8%.

The top 20% of teams defending the 3-point shot have a winning percentage of 60%.

The middle 60% defending the 3-point shot have a winning percentage of 51%.

The bottom 20% of defending the 3-point shot have a winning percentage of 36%.