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By Nick Cumming-BruceTHE NEW YORK TIMES • Friday September 28, 2012 6:22 AM

GENEVA — The number of Syrians fleeing to neighboring countries for safety and aid is likely to
exceed 700,000 by the end of the year, according to the United Nations and humanitarian agencies
that are struggling to keep pace with the surge in numbers in recent weeks.

More than a half-million people already have fled the civil war in Syria and made their way to
surrounding countries, the United Nations’ refugee agency estimates, but only 294,000 have
registered as refugees or are waiting to do so. If the present trend continues, the number of
registered refugees is likely to more than double, to 710,000 by the end of the year, Panos
Moumtzis, the agency’s regional coordinator for Syrian refugees said yesterday.

Three-quarters of the arrivals are women and children. Many arrive with only the clothes on
their backs and are traumatized by their experiences, he added.

“This is not business as usual,” Moumtzis said.

He announced the estimates as he started an appeal for $488 million to finance international
relief efforts, which he acknowledged have been overwhelmed by the speed and scale of the refugee
flow. With the approach of winter, Moumtzis said, “We are running out of time, and we need the
funding urgently.”

The flow of Syrian refugees has repeatedly overrun U.N. estimates. In March, when there were
41,500 registered in neighboring Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, it planned for the number to
reach 98,000 by the end of the year and appealed for $84 million to meet their needs. Within three
months the count had soared to 185,000 and the United Nations was asking for $193 million. Now,
with security deteriorating further in Syria, refugees are fleeing the country at a rate of 2,000
to 3,000 a day.

So far, though, the appeal for donations has raised only $141 million, less than one-third of
what humanitarian agencies calculate they now need through to the end of the year, Moumtzis
said.

The refugee agency, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, estimates that there
are more than 94,000 registered Syrian refugees in Jordan, about 84,000 in Turkey, 75,000 in
Lebanon and 30,500 in Iraq. It is planning for the number in Turkey to reach 280,000 and in Jordan,
250,000, and is pressing authorities in those countries to build or expand camps to receive
them.