The bottom line appears to be that the BoE is in the same position as the ECB after a soft patch for eurozone data in Q1 – they need to take breath and wait for more information.

“Problem is, the data has been so uniformly poor this year that it will take a massive turnaround for the central bank to feel comfortable hiking rates,” Bloomberg’s Richard Jones wrote this morning. So August is in focus with May completely off the table.

Well the decision is in: it’s 7-2.

BANK OF ENGLAND VOTES 7-2 TO MAINTAIN BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE

These are notable:

BOE SEES INFLATION COOLING FASTER TO REACH 2% GOAL IN 2 YEARS

BOE SAYS ONLY LIMITED TIGHTENING NEEDED IN COMING YEARS

And here you go:

U.K. MONEY MARKET PRICES OUT BANK OF ENGLAND RATE HIKE FOR 2018

So, the pound is retreating:

And gilt yields are falling:

In case it isn’t clear enough, this just further underscores the policy divergence narrative as the Fed remains on track while everyone else gets cold feet amid lackluster incoming data.

Writing about a subject is the best
way to educate yourself about it, and when I flick through past work I remember how much
they taught me, if no one else. Mainly they taught me that I didn’t know very much. But they
also taught me that most other people didn’t know much either. Thus, some key themes
which stand out include the illusory control of policy makers, the presumed knowledge of
those looking to them to actively do good, the ease with which we fool ourselves, and how
best to protect capital in the face of such unavoidable uncertainty. -- Dylan Grice