Bosnian nightmare returns to haunt EU

With Kosovo's US-backed ethnic Albanian leadership edging doggedly towards a unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia next month, Belgrade has opened a dangerous new front in the struggle over the province's future. Twelve years after a war that cost 100,000 lives and displaced millions, the Bosnian nightmare is returning to haunt the chancelleries of Europe.

In case anyone missed the connection, Serbia's Russian-backed nationalist prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, spelled it out last week: "Preserving Kosovo and the Serb Republic [the north-eastern half of Bosnia-Herzegovina] are now the most important goals of our state and national policy." Recent developments in Kosovo and Bosnia posed "an open threat to the essential interests of the Serb people".

Disturbed by scary echoes of Slobodan Milosevic's "Greater Serbia" policy, western diplomats are scrambling to hold the line with Belgrade. But time is running out, with talks about a Kosovo settlement stalemated and a December 10 deadline for agreement fast approaching. Adding to the urgency, the mandate for the EU's peacekeeping force in Bosnia expires on November 21.

The Belgrade embassies of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and US have jointly protested at Serbian government statements attacking Miroslav Lajcak, the UN high representative in Bosnia, after he publicly fell out with Bosnian Serb leaders over proposed reforms. They also told Belgrade that its Kosovo-Bosnia linkage was unacceptable.

At the same time, the EU last week hastily swallowed concerns about Serbia's failure to apprehend Bosnian war criminals Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic and offered Belgrade an association agreement - the first step towards membership. Balkan commentators said the EU volte face was a blatant attempt to reconcile Serbia to the impending loss of Kosovo and stop the fallout destabilising Bosnia.

Haris Silajdzic, a Bosnian Muslim who serves as one of the country's three presidents, denounced EU machinations and warned that Belgrade was encouraging Bosnian Serb talk of a secession referendum and unification with Serbia. "Someone is fomenting that trouble," he said, suggesting that a Bosnian crisis, precipitating a full-blown regional crisis, might suit Mr Kostunica.

Belgrade was certainly quick to back Bosnia's prime minister, Nikola Spiric, an ethnic Serb, when he resigned last week after the reform row with Lajcak. Egged on by Serbia, his supporters also threatened to leave the government. Russia - a traditional ally of Serbia and opponent of Kosovan independence - warned in turn that the high representative was in danger of exceeding his powers.

The European commission's latest assessment of enlargement prospects, published last week, concluded that Bosnia's ethnic tensions, rival nationalisms, and Byzantine government structures had jeopardised its progress. As in Kosovo, recent reports also speak of the availability of large caches of arms and covert efforts on all sides to remobilise militias. "There is some nervousness, certainly," a senior European official said yesterday. "We cannot allow the Bosnia war to start again."

Yet immune to the consequences for Bosnia, the US, Britain and France appear bent on recognising Kosovan independence under a novel system of EU-supervised sovereignty, no matter what Kosovo's ethnic Serb minority, Serbia, Greece, Russia and the UN may say. Counting on the trio's support, Kosovo's prime minister, Agim Ceku, insists independence is inevitable by the year's end.

The European commission's Kosovo chapter makes particularly grim reading, raising serious questions about the province's viability. Corruption is endemic, institutions are weak, and minority rights are routinely infringed. The overall picture is hardly one of a nation state ready for self-rule.

Hans-Jochen Witthauer, commander of EU troops in Bosnia, put it bluntly. "The resolution of Kosovo's status creates problems that have an impact on the entire region," he said. "The entire western Balkans is still a fragile and unstable region. Ethnic tensions are powerful. The international community should pay special attention."