TRACES OF TERROR: ASSESSING THE THREAT

By DAVID JOHNSTON

Published: May 22, 2002

WASHINGTON, May 21—
Each day, another senior Bush administration official has come forward with a dire warning. One by one, they have predicted, with near certainty, that terrorists will strike again in the United States -- culminating today with a warning that New York landmarks like the Statue of Liberty might be at risk.

Vice President Dick Cheney began the warnings on Sunday, saying in a television interview that he was ''almost certain'' of more attacks. On Monday, Robert S. Mueller III, the F.B.I. director, said he feared that suicide bombings in the United States were ''inevitable.''

Today, Donald H. Rumsfeld, the defense secretary, said that terrorists would ''inevitably'' obtain horrific weapons of mass destruction through relationships with their confederates in countries like Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea and Syria.

The daily warnings, coming at a time when the White House has been battered by questions about whether it might have missed important signals about Al Qaeda's intentions in the United States, have prompted speculation that the White House is using the threats to change the subject.

At a news conference, the White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said the messages resulted from an increase in terrorist ''chatter'' picked up by intelligence agencies.

Counterterrorism officials have said they first detected a spike in the volume of worrisome reports early this year as Al Qaeda fighters began to regroup after being driven from Afghanistan. But they added that the intelligence, though increasing in volume, has remained vague and fragmentary.

The reports, corroborated by information from detainees, have suggested that Osama bin Laden's followers wanted to stage a large attack that would be even more devastating than the Sept. 11 hijackings.

But privately, some Democratic strategists say they are suspicious of the motives of the Bush administration. They have said that what has really changed is the political temperature at the White House. Administration officials, they said, have hyped the threats to deflect criticism of Mr. Bush's national security team.

One Democratic official cited a speech by Mr. Cheney last week in which he defended Mr. Bush, calling ''incendiary'' any suggestion that the White House had advance knowledge of the Sept. 11 attacks. Mr. Cheney added, ''Such commentary is thoroughly irresponsible and totally unworthy of national leaders in time of war.''

The Democratic strategist said, ''He was basically suggesting if you dare raise questions about us, we are going to question your patriotism.''

Still, few intelligence analysts doubt the reality or seriousness of the reports, nor do they dispute that Mr. bin Laden's terror network will try to launch another attack on American soil.

Administration officials said that the reason threat assessments were once again under discussion was that reporters were asking more questions about the issue.

''It's a natural part of our system when there is an intense focus, people ask questions,'' one senior administration official said today. ''I think if Dick Cheney was on a similar show a month ago he would have said the same thing he said this past Sunday.''

In recent days, Mr. Bush's law enforcement team has been subjected to fierce criticism in Congress over the Federal Bureau of Investigation's failure to fully assess a July 2001 memorandum by a Phoenix F.B.I. agent who expressed concern that Al Qaeda followers might enroll at American flight schools to train for terror operations.

As a result of such criticism, several intelligence officials said, F.B.I. and C.I.A. analysts are flooding the government's threat assessment system with reports of possible dangers out of fear of the consequences should they fail to point out even the slightest possibility of danger.

The intelligence, much of it based on intercepted communications, is going up the reporting channels to the political ranks of the administration in raw and often unverified form. Career analysts have complained that politicians are often too quick to react to unconfirmed reports -- especially in a climate in which they fear they will face criticism if they fail to alert the public of danger even if the threat is remote.

Law enforcement officials were privately dismissive of the alerts issued regularly by the administration in months after the Sept. 11 attacks. They complained that most of the intelligence even when credible was too vague to provide useful precautionary advice either to local law enforcement officials or the public.

Some of the alerts, like a warning last year about a possible attack on the Golden Gate Bridge and other West Coast bridges, was never regarded as credible by counterterrorism analysts. But the fear of terrorism prompted local authorities to step up security for days.

After Mr. Cheney's appearance on two television news programs on Sunday, some Democrats toned down their criticism of the administration. Mr. Fleischer was asked if Mr. Bush had detected a decrease in the criticism.

''Well, I think from the president's point of view he understands that there are going to be politics in Washington,'' Mr. Fleischer said. ''But he's very grateful -- there have been many people in both parties who work diligently, and the president is focused on keeping the country united and winning a war. He understands politics will occasionally flare up, but I think it's come and it's gone, from his point of view.''