Greater New Orleans

Voters in Louisiana's 5th congressional district, which encompasses much of the state's northwest and central, will choose a new congressman later this year to fill the seat of outgoing U.S. Rep. Rodney Alexander.
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Fourteen men signed up last week to battle for the seat, which will sit vacant after Alexander takes a job in Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration Sept. 30. The candidates will have less than two months to convince voters in the sprawling district they're the best man for the job.

Two things will ultimately determine the winner: name recognition and the size of the candidate's campaign war chest. State Sen. Neil Riser, a Republican from Columbia, is currently the frontrunner in both aspects, having socked away funds for the race for years as well as having secured endorsements from four of Louisiana's Republican congressmen.

But while Riser is the early favorite, a few unknowns could tweak the outcome of the Oct. 19 special election, squeezing Riser out of the Nov. 16 runoff and even bringing a Democrat into the mix. But, regardless of who makes it past the first round, it's unlikely a Democrat could win overall.

Who are you and how much money do you have?

The answers to those two questions will determine who Louisiana sends to Washington at the end of this year. They are far and away the two most important factors in the race, according to political analysts.

While the district skews Democratic when you look purely at party affiliation of registered voters, multiple analysts have deemed the race "safe Republican." From here, the next logical step is taking a look at the most recognizable and best-funded conservative candidates.

"Name recognition and money and the ability to get the message out is really important," said Kirby Goidel, a political analyst and director of LSU's Public Policy Research Lab.

Riser has all of these in spades, especially when you factor in what Goidel calls the "institutional support" gained from key endorsements.

But a latecomer to the race might give Riser a run for his money. This player is Clyde Holloway, a current state utilities regulator, former congressman and inveterate campaigner.

Holloway comes to the game with widespread name recognition having represented Louisiana's now-defunct 8th congressional district between 1987 and 1993 and has been active in state politics since.

He also has campaign experience. While not always successful -- the Forest Hill Republican has lost six congressional races, one for lieutenant governor and one for governor -- many of them were close matches that were decided by less than two percentage points.

"Clyde getting in totally messed it up for a candidate like Neil," said Roy Fletcher, a Baton Rouge-based political consultant. "On the other hand, it would have been a race anyway."

While Riser has the name recognition, recent accusations that the race was fixed to push him to the front of the pack could be the second-most important shaping element in this race.

Did they or didn't they?

On Aug. 6, Alexander announced he would step down early from his seat in the 5th District, triggering the special election. The next day, Riser jumped into the race. Within days, he boasted support from Jindal's political consulting firm of choice OnMessage, Inc. and campaign manager Eric Mahaffey, who has worked for Alexander.

Almost immediately, allegations of election rigging emerged. State Rep. Jay Morris, R-Monroe, represented by Fletcher, lobbed the first allegation. He said Jindal, Alexander, or both tipped Riser off early to the announcement, so he would have time to assemble a campaign team and get his funds in order.

All parties denied the claim. On Friday, Riser told NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune he was disappointed his fellow candidates continued to question the manner in which he entered the race.

"It's time to get on with the race and talk about the issues that matter," Riser said. He again denied that he was tipped off by any of Jindal or Alexander's staffers, specifically mentioning he had not "spoken to the governor since Rodney announced he would not run."

But, further questions arose with news that Riser's campaign filings with the Federal Election Commission indicated they were sent Aug. 5, the day before Alexander announced he would step down. Riser attributed the issue to a glitch on the FEC's website -- uncommon but not unheard of, according to FEC officials -- but as of Monday afternoon, the "mistake" hadn't yet been fixed.

By the end of qualifying on Aug. 21, many of the other candidates voiced similar concerns. In an unexpected move, Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter also questioned the perceived fix and said he would not make an endorsement in the race.

Regardless of whether the allegations are true -- ethics laws do not preclude such behavior and it's not uncommon for parties to prep candidates in this manner -- they could chip away at Riser's popularity before the election.

Playing that, card, however, is not without risks for opponents.

"In a big candidate race like this, if there's any negative message, it's not clear who benefits from it," said Goidel.

Only Republican candidates expressed deep-seeded concerns over the controversy, while the most prominent Democratic candidates have sloughed it off.

Case in point is Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, the most prominent Democrat on the ballot and widely accepted as the only non-Republican who could make it into a runoff. Asked about the accusations when he jumped into the race, Mayo said he assumed they were true but didn't plan to focus on them.

"I'm not going to cry over spilled milk," Mayo said, quickly moving onto his plans to run on an economic development platform.

Setting aside who reacts to the report and how they use it in their campaign literature, the bottom line is the issue is "bona fide" and will at least in part steer the election's outcome, Fletcher said.

But David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report, said he doesn't think it will be enough to keep Riser from getting into the runoff. Goidel agrees: "Despite the controversy, it looks like he's going to have enough institutional support. Even if there's a backlash I wouldn't discount him."

Voter turnout and a Democrat in the race

The 5th District remains "safe Republican" according to Crystal Ball, a political report put out by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

But the other important demographic to note is that black voters make up 31 percent of the district, which encompasses much of northeast and central Louisiana.

While black voters nationwide came out in larger numbers than white voters to re-elect President Barack Obama in 2012, that was not the case in Louisiana (although they were close). Chronic low voter turnout in special elections in the state also will be a factor.

During the last special election on May 4, total voter turnout was only 14 percent. This was in spite of the fact that the election determined whether Crescent City Connection tolls would be renewed, a highly-controversial issue. The number was even lower for black voters, at just over 10 percent.

But, the controversy surrounding the election could be such that it boosts overall voter turnout Oct. 19. Add to this Mayo's name recognition and presence as the most viable Democratic candidate and it could spell a chance for the African-American Monroe mayor, especially if black voters come out in large numbers.

"I think a Democrat will make it into the runoff. I think that's pretty dang likely in this race," said Fletcher. "And if African-Americans turn out to any extent, I think Jamie Mayo will probably be a beneficiary of that."

This will also depend on the strength of Mayo's campaign machine.

"The key in turnout is really the organizational push and making sure that people are being asked to vote and being connected with on a personal level," said Goidel.

Kyle Kondik, House editor for Crystal Ball, also said he could see Mayo making it into the runoff election. But the chances for his outright success are dim.

"It's hard to imagine a Democrat winning the seat," Kondik said, noting there are only two other congressional districts, the West Virginia 3rd and Utah 4th, that skew this far right that are held by Democrats.

The nation's strongest blue district, California's 31st, was won by Republican Barry Miller last year. But, while the outcome lends credence to the possibility of a party upset in a "safe" district, Miller will most definitely be even more of a target for the Democratic Party machine in 2014.

"Even if there was a really big upset (in Louisiana's 5th District) it would be hard to imagine it lasting for that long," said Kondik.

Such was the case with Don Cazayoux, who narrowly bested conservative publisher Woody Jenkins in a similar special election for Louisiana's 6th District in 2008, but then lost his chance to serve a full term when Bill Cassidybeat him the next year.

Kondik added he believes voter turnout will also not be enough of a factor to affect the final outcome, even if black voters come out in large numbers: "Even if the turnout is really low, I still think we'll see the (conservative) fundamentals of the district assert themselves."

Place your bets

Most political analysts already have a favorite for the race, based on the Riser controversy, surprise candidates and crowded field of 14 men spanning five parties.

But the three names that emerge again and again as presumptive leaders come Oct. 19 are Riser, Holloway and Mayo. Most believe state Rep. Robert Johnson, a white Democrat from Marksville, will be pushed out by virtue of Mayo's name recognition and pull among black voters.

Analysts said state Rep. Marcus Hunter, another black Democrat from Monroe with two years in the state Legislature, couldn't match Mayo's 12 years as mayor and six years as city councilman.

The impressive list of candidates also includes two Libertarian candidates, two "no party candidates, a member of the Green Party from New Orleans and two more Republicans who have never before run for elected office.

While bets are already being made, the real fun in this race will be the likely surprises that arise from such a varied, and bloated, candidate pool. Will a favorite or frontrunner commit an inexcusable gaffe? Will a third party candidate somehow grab headlines at a public forum or debate?

These are the aspects of this kind of an unusual race that make any predictions less set in stone and more malleable.

"All bets are off," said Goidel, while both Kondik and Fletcher agreed anything is possible in the race.