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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

I can't say that Romney is going to win Pennsylvania, however once again we are forgetting what happened in 2010. Republicans knocked out almost every Democrat in state and local elections there.

so if Republicans can mobilize that kind of turnout again on Tuesday, it is possible that they could nab it.

given Romney's campaign strategy, I don't think he would be there on Sunday if he didn't think he had a shot at it.

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I don't think it is fair to compare midterms with presidentials. Especially if we are talking about inner-city turnouts when one of the candidates is African-American. Odds of random Philadelphian voting for governor in off-year are way less than voting for Obama for president. Especially when you consider Obama will pick up said voter and take them to the polls, feed the voter, maybe give the voter some cigarettes, and return the voter to his/her house.

Mid-term, statewide elections for governor, and even Senator, etc, aren't great indicators of presidential elections. At least in terms of net results; maybe they can predict trends or relative margins of victory. But simply put, less people vote in midterms and less people means a higher percentage of conservatives, since conservatives tend to vote regularly at a greater percentage than liberals. It is similar (though not close to the same extent) to saying that Ehrlich winning in 2002 gave Bush a shot at MD in 2004.

I agree Romney could win Pennsylvania. And I think his decision to campaign there means he thinks he has some kind of shot. But since he hasn't put too much effort into it until now, I am a bit worried the "shot" may be more a shot in the dark to possibly replace Ohio, which is being stubborn in support of Obama (though again, Ohio is clearly winnable for Romney, I would say moreso than Pennsylvania).

I absolutely hope I am wrong and you are correct in terms of what is going on here.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Originally Posted by Haloti92

I don't think it is fair to compare midterms with presidentials. Especially if we are talking about inner-city turnouts when one of the candidates is African-American. Odds of random Philadelphian voting for governor in off-year are way less than voting for Obama for president. Especially when you consider Obama will pick up said voter and take them to the polls, feed the voter, maybe give the voter some cigarettes, and return the voter to his/her house.

Mid-term, statewide elections for governor, and even Senator, etc, aren't great indicators of presidential elections. At least in terms of net results; maybe they can predict trends or relative margins of victory. But simply put, less people vote in midterms and less people means a higher percentage of conservatives, since conservatives tend to vote regularly at a greater percentage than liberals. It is similar (though not close to the same extent) to saying that Ehrlich winning in 2002 gave Bush a shot at MD in 2004.

I agree Romney could win Pennsylvania. And I think his decision to campaign there means he thinks he has some kind of shot. But since he hasn't put too much effort into it until now, I am a bit worried the "shot" may be more a shot in the dark to possibly replace Ohio, which is being stubborn in support of Obama (though again, Ohio is clearly winnable for Romney, I would say moreso than Pennsylvania).

I absolutely hope I am wrong and you are correct in terms of what is going on here.

I think moreso than any other midterm election you have to factor that in. This wasn't your run of the mill midterm elections. This was a repudiation of the President at the federal level not only taking the house back with wide margin, but taking the supermajority away from the Democrats in the Senate, and coming a couple bad candidates away from retaking the Senate. This midterm was all about punishing those who supported shoving Obamacare down the country's throat.

The thing is that African Americans are going to overwhelmingly support Obama no matter what. HOWEVER, some of the religious Blacks that are against things like gay marriage might not show in the numbers they did in '08 either. PLus, and while it's in NO way a sizable mark yet, there are a growing number of Black Conservatives out there that feel like they can vote and make their presence known. Not to mention I think Romney could carry 40% of the Jewish vote as well (which includes 90% of my own family, even my Democrat relatives in Florida who loved Clinton are voting Romney this time.)

This is why I think trying to use '08 sampling is flawed. And the polls aren't even doing that now. They are assuming HIGHER Democrat turnout than '08.

And yet again, a perfect example of why I don't believe the sampling is Ohio. In 2008, 80,000 people came to Obama rallies in Cleveland. Yesterday, on his final stop where you should be rallying the troops, he had 4,000, after last night only having 2,800.

Romney on the other hand ended his Ohio campaign with a rally of 30,000 people. GOP enthusiasm is through the roof right now, and much is pro-Romney and not anti-Obama.

Speaking of the Ohio polls and another reason you can't believe them. According to most of the EV polls (even the CNN one), they say 30-40% of people already voted. The problem with that is the state is only reporting that around 20-25% have voted early. So who's lying.

Now in that hard count, comparing early voting in Pro-Obama and pro-Romney counties show the GOP in much better shape than it was in 2008. In 2008, Obama only won Ohio by 4.6%. It's probable that Romney's early vote has cut into that by half if not more. Can Romney's Tuesday voters make up the rest is the question.

This is why I'm not conceding this election nor am I pushing the panic button. I still in my heart believe Romney is going to pull this out.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

For the pessimists, I posted above that 30,000 waited in long lines in the freezing cold
to see Mitt in OHio, only 2800 showed up to see OBY. This morning on his last stop
in the same city, only 4000 showed up and that's in a DEM strong hold.

That's compared to 80,000 that showed up in Ohio to see him in 08.

These crowds coincide with the early voting figures for Mitt in OHio. He is over-performing
by 75,000 more votes from 08 to over 181,000 less votes for the under-performing Obama
since 08. Mitt is over-performing in all the counties in early voting in Ohio.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

FROM ANOTHER BOARD:

And Romney got the endorsement of Lee Iacocca - that's significant in MI, as state that just came into play since the drubbing Obama took in the first debate. In OH, the endorsement is even more significant. His name and endorsement still carries weight with the lifers in the auto industry.

FROM ME:

Looks like Ohio is listening to Lee not OBY. So much for the bailout issue.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Again my concern is the discrepancy between all the anecdotal evidence you are providing, Iacocca, rally-sizes, yard signs, a poll here or there, and the stubborn lead Obama has in the vast majority of the Ohio polls.

Obviously the polls can be flawed, but for so many to be flawed, the mistake they are making has to be systematic. Along with the anecdotal positives, I would feel better with a strong argument why all these polls are consistently bucking the anecdotal evidence. And the argument needs to explain why this election shows the systematic polling error while other recent elections really didn't. I threw out the idea of early voting affecting likely voter samples, but I am still not sure that does the trick in reconciling the way the polls look vs. the way everything else looks.

Stay positive though, your points and optimism is helping me keep hope alive. Without it, I may have already written this thing off, as pessimistic as I normally am, lol.

it's very easy answer. most of the pulling it done by democratic leaning firms. the idea is to create a narrative. that's narrative is built to keep Republicans from voting on Tuesday because they think the election is lost cause.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Ok. I am back inside, but I am leaving the window open.

I realized the Marist poll was BS. I was more talking about the ones showing 2 point leads, etc in Ohio; I think the 1-2 point lead may be real. I don't think all these pollsters are rigging their results purposely, though Marist makes it obvious that they are one of the pollsters that does.

The problem with trying to gauge "intensity" is that these month-long early voting windows negate the "intensity" factor because Democrats (Republicans have gotten into the game this election, but I am sure not to the same extent) flat-out corral people who wouldn't in a million years motivate themselves to vote, early or otherwise, onto buses, etc, and hold their hand all the way through the process. The longer the early voting window the more busloads they can round up. So I agree Republicans are more pissed off, and if people had to put in effort to vote that rage/intensity would help a lot, but people don't have to put in much effort these days.

And to some extent, I think Obama's 2008 performance wasn't a maximum effort like this one is going to be in terms of rounding up stray votes. He had it in the bag vs. McCain relative to this election. One can easily argue they took their foot off the early vote gas in 2008 once they realized victory was clear.

Thanks though. I am inside again, though I can't promise that the ledge and I won't meet again before Tuesday, lol.

Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

Originally Posted by Haloti92

The odds of Pennsylvania going for Mitt are not very good, imo. Anything is possible, but I think the effort put towards that state was too little too late. It has been relaibly Democrat for 20+ years, and while this year it will be closer than usual, I don't see how Romney can get over the hump based on the polling, unless Obama's ground game is asleep at the switch in Philly (which I suppose is possible).

Western PA = coal country which Obama has said this about:

He doesn't like coal or fracking, both of which are big in western PA.