A thread below prompted me to look at Kelly's career records vs. teams ranked in the final AP top 10, final AP top 25, all unranked schools currently in the Power 5 (dividing the old Big East among schools that did/didn't land in Power 5 conferences), and all other FBS schools.

Before coming to ND, Kelly was 0-4 vs. the final AP top 10, 4-6 vs. all teams ranked in the final AP poll, 11-6 vs. unranked Power 5, and 35-10 vs. other FBS schools. Overall, he was 15-12 (.556) vs. the Power 5 and 50-22 (.694) vs. all FBS. (He also was 4-0 vs. FCS schools, with 3 of those 4 coming at Cincinnati and just one at CMU.)

At ND, Kelly is 32-18 (.640) vs. the Power 5 and 44-20 (.688) vs. all FBS. Those numbers are strikingly similar to his pre-ND numbers -- a bit better versus the Power 5 and a tad worse versus all FBS, due to losses to non-Power 5 schools Navy and USF.

Kelly's strongest supporters have focused mostly on the 4 years prior to his hiring by ND (as well as his Division II record, which is patently irrelevant to this discussion). And, of course, they have placed far more weight on 2012 than on the rest of Kelly's ND tenure. But when taken as a whole, Kelly's 11-year career in Division I confirms that he's a sub-.700 coach at the FCS level, and sub-.650 at the Power 5 level. It offers little to no hope that Kelly is capable of winning a playoff national championship.