Lottery Results: Predictable

The NBA lottery, conspiracy theories aside, is a random event. But that doesn’t mean the results aren’t predictable. It would be nice to dismiss the unfortunate outcome for the Warriors as bad luck — they had an 18% chance of ending up in the 6th slot — but the team’s most recent misfortune was at least partially of their own making. By fighting to win games long after they were out of contention for anything, they decreased their odds of moving up (or even holding their record-based position). There’s no way to know whether things would have gone differently had the Warriors’ held the third worst record — a position they safely controlled until the final three weeks of the season — but there’s no dispute that their odds of having a better pick would have been higher. Instead, we secured a few wins no one will remember come October and we’re stuck multiple picks away from anything potentially resembling game-changing talent. This is how bad teams stay bad.

We’ll have a month to discuss all the options at 6, but off the top of my head:

If we keep the pick, either Johnson or Aminu would fit a need. Both are serious question marks, but drafting a small forward would allow the Warriors to move Maggette or — at the very least — reduce his minutes. Given Azubuike’ssecond knee surgery this year and uncertainty over whether Morrow returns, the team needs depth at the 3.

I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Warriors trade back in the draft or out entirely, particularly if it allows them to offload a contract or put together a larger package for an impact player. Drafts always become clearer as the date approaches, but right now it looks like the mid-lottery will be dedicated to project power forwards. The Warriors already have two — they don’t need another. By moving into the 10-15 range, they could likely grab a project center or low-upside, but more polished swing player. By trading out entirely, they’d play to the pattern established by Nelson in earlier drafts when he’s not enamored with the talent available at the pick.

The uncertainty over the draft pick makes the pace of the team’s potential sale even more important. The choice over whether to draft at 6 or potentially trade the pick is one that the new brain trust should be making, not a front office that will likely be out of a job with a change in ownership. An owner looking to cut costs above all will approach this pick differently from one looking to stockpile talent. The same holds even if the team keeps the pick. If the new owner trusts Ellis, Randolph and/or Biedrins as future contributors, there’s an entirely different slate of players on the draft board than if the new front office is ready to move one or more of those guys. In short, we just don’t know what the new ownership will want — which likely means more false starts or aimless drifting when it comes to rebuilding the team.

What should the Warriors do with the pick? Let the speculation begin below.