Three horses

PARLIAMENTARY candidates Chris Philp and Lib Dem Ed Fordham were on the phone yesterday both telling me that a recent YouGov poll of marginal seats puts them in the lead in Hampstead and Kilburn. You can see the to and fro in today’s New Journal and a copy of the polling report that it’s based on here.

I’ve done a bit of digging and understand that the raw data for the new constituency, not published in the final report, gives the Tories the advantage in the constitiuency. It is also my understanding that the polling shows that Glenda Jackson, trying to hold it again for Labour, is not out of the race just yet and did better than some might have thought. The Lib Dems would remind us all that the same poll regarded the area as a ‘Labour vs Liberal Democrat’ battleground.

So, as much as both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems may want the vote to be characterised as a two horse race and will tell people on the doorstep that the other ‘can’t win here’, Hampstead and Kilburn is actually developing into an intriguing three way battle. It’s perhaps one of the most interesting constituencies to look out for in the whole country.

1 Comment on Three horses

The margin of error for the figures from any individual constituency in this survey will be massive – with 34,000 responses in 238 constituencies, the sample for any seat will be around 142. Anyone making ambitious claims about what this says about the situation in H&K is not being honest – it is clearly, as you say, a three way contest and this poll does not change that at all.