Monday, 18 November 2013

What
on earth is going on in Turkey these days? At a time when the country has
serious economic, foreign and domestic policy problems the government seems to
be focusing on minor issues that threaten to unravel the aura of progress and
omnipotence created by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) over the
last 10 years.

Vindictive
reprisals continue against anyone accused of being associated with the Gezi
Park protests last spring. Students suspected of involvement have been thrown
out of university dormitories. Others have had their state grants revoked. The
list of journalists fired by easily intimidated media bosses continues to grow.
Companies that are accused of not toeing the government’s line are threatened
with massive tax inspections.

Businessmen
I have spoken with are convinced their telephones, emails and faxes are tapped.
One business leader said his employees do not use mobile phones or faxes.
“We’ll talk when I am in London next month,” was his response to a question.
Such is the paranoia among business leaders outside the charmed government
circle that when you do get an interview you are likely to be asked to remove
the battery from your mobile phone. “They can listen to anything you know.”
George Orwell where are you?

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan

Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has now carried his vendetta against university
students to new levels in decreeing that co-ed dormitories or even private
apartments will no longer be allowed. The ensuing uproar among his fellow
countrymen living in the 21st century did not faze the prime
minister. He may well have calculated that any uproar in that segment of
society will only strengthen his base before the upcoming municipal elections.

But
in a bizarre move that threatens to break open the long-festering dispute within
the ruling party the prime minister recently moved to close the so-called dershanes, private cram courses to
prepare students for the critical university entrance exam. The move ostensibly
was aimed at levelling the playing field for university applicants by removing
the advantage of wealthy children who can afford the courses.

The
problem for Erdoğan, and indeed for his entire party, is that the move directly
challenges one of his major supporters, the shadowy but powerful Islamic
scholar Fetullah Gülen who established many of the dershanes. From his farm in the United States, where he fled from
legal action in Turkey many years ago, Gülen controls a vast ‘movement’ of
supporters in Turkey and other countries.

Fetullah Gulen

Gülen
says he symbolizes the ‘soft’ power of Islam and devotes his efforts to
sponsoring schools and health care facilities around the world. The dershanes are a key part of his program
in Turkey. In addition to providing the required exam tutoring many people in
Turkey say Gülen also uses the school to recruit members for his ‘movement’.

Gülen
and Erdoğan, who hates any competing
power base, have never been close. But as long as Erdoğan was working for
increased religious influence in the Turkish government Gülen lent his support.
But now that Gülen’s movement has gained power within Turkey through strong
positions in the judiciary and police it can more easily oppose Erdoğan.

Where
Erdoğan was strident, harsh and unrepentant Gülen would appear to be softer,
more conciliatory. During the Gezi Park protests last spring when Erdoğan was
relying on tear gas and police batons Gülen would issue impenetrable statements
seeming to urge – as far as anyone could understand them in Turkish or English
– dialogue and conciliation. Gülen, whose supporters have been accused of driving
the so-called Ergenekon case against
alleged coup plotters, has recently urged that the elderly plotters should be
released from their long prison sentences. Divisions between President Abdullah
Gül, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç and Erdoğan surfaced during the
demonstrations with Gül and Arınç urging more tolerance. Since then Gül has
missed no opportunity to distance himself from Erdoğan’s increasingly divisive
policies.

Which way will President Gul move?

Now,
with the policy on the dershanes, Erdoğan
is forcing an open break with the Gülen movement. Gülen has used the newspaper Zaman, to condemn the
move against the dershanes and to
urge his supporters to remain strong the face of opposition.

It
is difficult to see a clear winner in this contest between two camps within the
religiously oriented AKP. Ministers assumed close to the Gülen movement are
dropping broad hints that Erdoğan has only a short time left in active politics
and that the jockeying for power has begun within the post-Erdoğan AKP. President
Abdullah Gül has been particularly coy about his plans. Will he run for
president again? Or will be step down and become Turkey’s next prime minister? At
moment he is the most popular politician in Turkey. He will calculate his next
step very carefully indeed.

In
theory, internal party rules ban Erdoğan and 72 other AKP members of
parliament, from running again. This apparently leaves Erdoğan no choice but to
run for the non-partisan presidency. While no one doubts that he could change
the party rules in a minute, Erdoğan has often said he will do no such thing.

The
rub for Erdoğan is that currently the presidency is largely a ceremonial post
with no real power. He is trying desperately to change that and create an
executive presidency along French lines. But is by no means clear that he has the
required support in parliament for the constitutional change required for a
change in the nature of the presidency. Again, certain ministers close to the Gülen
movement are dropping hints that the issue is off the table. President Gül, for
one, has publicly stated his opposition.

Are
we witnessing the frantic actions of someone facing the end of his absolute
control? Or are these manoeuvres aimed merely at solidifying his base to repel
all challengers? It is too early to tell for sure. But meanwhile, serious
issues for Turkey continue to mount. And time is one luxury the country
certainly does not have.

Followers

About Me

I worked as a fund manager and investment banker in Turkey and the Middle East for 25 years. Over the years I have travelled extensively throughout the region and have met many of the leading government officials, business and cultural leaders. I am married to a Greek and now divide my time between London, Turkey, and an island in the Aegean.