From left to right, Joel Harden, Yasir Naqvi and Lisa MacLeod have all kicked off their provincial election campaigns in Ottawa, even though the writ has yet to drop. (Stu Mills/CBC/Darren Calabrese)

The provincial election writ doesn't drop until Wednesday, but some of Ottawa's most high-profile candidates have already gotten a head start on their campaigns.

On Sunday, several hundred people came out to see Lisa MacLeod, the Progressive Conservative MPP for Nepean–Carleton, kick off her re-election bid.

"I have a lot more work to do," said MacLeod, who has represented Nepean–Carleton since 2006 and will be running this time in the new riding of Nepean.

According to Elections Ontario, candidates are allowed to hand out brochures and put up lawn signs before the official start of the election period, as long as they're authorized and paid for by either the party or the constituency association.

Candidates themselves cannot incur expenses or pay for advertising before the writ drops.

MacLeod said easing traffic in her riding is one of the priorities she'd focus on if she's returned to office.

"One of the projects I'd like to see to fruition is a new exit on [Highway] 416 at Barnsdale," she said.

"I'd like to work with [local councillors] and others to try and mitigate some of the traffic issues that we're seeing on the way to Barrhaven on Greenbank. There have been a number of tragic accidents there."

However, MacLeod said the "number one issue" facing her community — and many others across the province — is the high cost of electricity.

She also said Sunday she has complete faith in Doug Ford as the PC Party's leader.

"He's a breath of fresh air, particularly in light of the fractious period we had from January until March," she said.

"I really like his style. I think the fact that he is a grassroots politician really speaks volumes on what we want in Ontario today. Somebody that doesn't use a 10-dollar word when a buck would suffice."

MacLeod launched her campaign one day after Yasir Naqvi, the Liberal MPP for Ottawa Centre and the province's attorney general, hammered in his first lawn sign.

Naqvi said Sunday that the Liberals have been in power for the past 15 years because of a strong record of building public services, particularly in sectors like health care and education.

"I want to continue with that work of making sure that we've got good schools in the downtown core, that we continue with the building of the LRT that is extremely beneficial to my community," he said.

"And most importantly, I want to see the new Civic Campus of the Ottawa Hospital built. That is a very significant health care project."

Skyrocketing hydro bills have plagued the Liberals, however, with Naqvi noting Sunday that "affordability is an issue" and that "not everybody is benefiting from the strength of the economy."

However, he hoped his party's investments in mental health care and child care have alleviated some of the financial pressures Ontarians are facing.

"That will help them, in terms of providing better care for their loved ones or for their children," he said.

"But it's also going to save them a significant amount of money."

NDP candidate Joel Harden is hoping to unseat Yasir Naqvi in Ottawa Centre and turn the riding orange for the first time since 1995. (Idil Mussa/CBC)

An NDP upset?

The NDP may not hold any seats in the city, but first-time candidate Joel Harden is hoping to unseat Naqvi in Ottawa Centre.

Harden's signs already dot a number of lawns in the riding — one he says is among the most "politically astute" in the country.

"In 2015, we had an 82 per cent voter turnout rate, the highest in Canada," said Harden, who has a background in education and community organizing.

Harden said people in the riding are most concerned about issues like affordable housing, long-term care for seniors, access to dental care and pharmacare, and high hydro costs.

A lot of folks are trying to structure the conversation to make it seem as if we can only choose between bad and worse.

- Ottawa Centre NDP candidate Joel Harden

He said the key will be turning that dissatisfaction into votes, while convincing people they don't have to simply pick between the Liberals and Conservatives.

"The engine of this campaign is frustrated former Liberal voters, frustrated Green voters, frustrated Conservative voters and — most importantly — people who've never voted before taking an interest in this campaign," Harden said.

"A lot of folks are trying to structure the conversation to make it seem as if we can only choose between bad and worse."

There was a major PC canvasing blitz this weekend;
Driving through three different ridings I came across folks in blue T-Shirts so it appears there is a fair bit of enthusiasm amongst the blue team.

Now we just wait for the writ to drop

they have been doing canvasses for some time , even when Brown was still leader , although mostly in the GTA and Toronto ridings , not the rural ones much

the new Pollara poll would seem to indicate the ndp is already emerging as the alternative to Ford and the wynne liberals and that wynne' push left hasn't yielded much of anything

the writ is suppose to be dropped on Wednesday and I'd imagine by Friday the streets will be covered with election signs , blue ones will likely dominate in most areas , I can't imagine the liberals getting a lot of signs up on homes this election , plus some ndp and even green signs in some areas

but whats weird in my riding in 2014 there was barely any liberal signs on homes yet they still came in second ahead of the greens ( who actually had a lot of signs on homes and ndp ) , its almost like there vote is going more secretive and people don't want to admit there voting for them

There was no Ford breakdown, there was no Wynne redemption, and there was no Horwath no-show.

But as expected, the NDP leader and the Liberal premier both went after the perceived front runner – Doug Ford – in the first major party leaders’ debate.

In what can only be described as an uncomfortable format (all three party leaders awkwardly stood beside one another), Horwath and Ford did more to help their electoral fortunes on June 7, than Wynne did to help her re-election bid.

The premier was combative, angry, and as expected, lectured the other two leaders on their policies.

At one point, Wynne even physically turned her back and outwardly dismissed Horwath when the NDP leader attempted to inject herself into one of the more interesting exchanges.

But Horwath for her part, got hers, so to speak. She ably defended her party’s unrealistic and expensive platform and at the same time clearly demonstrated why she remains the leader of the NDP for the third straight election.

The NDP leader was thoughtful, convincing and articulate. Too bad she can’t win the election.

Wynne on the other hand appeared desperate and out of touch. She leads a scandal plagued government that is out of touch and is relying on deficits to finance irresponsible and unaffordable election promises. The only possible way for Wynne to win re-election is to fear monger and scare voters away from Doug Ford. But she was unconvincing. Short of her Liberal staff, very few people are buying what Wynne is now selling.

The unspoken question in Monday’s Leaders’ Debate wasn’t what Doug Ford will cut if he’s elected Premier.

Both Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwath repeatedly tried to impress upon voters that the Ontario PC leader will slash jobs and services if he’s elected Premier.

The question that needed to be asked was what Wynne and Horwath will cut should they win.

Wynne’s government has been playing with monopoly money for years and has a hidden, $6.8 billion deficit. Two provincial watchdogs have accused the Liberals of fudging the books, but neither Wynne nor Horwath addressed how they’ll deal with that hole in their spending plans.

Meanwhile, the newly minted PC Party leader didn’t have a strong start to the debate, but he had a powerful finish.

Ford asked Wynne pointedly, “when did you lose your way?”

He was also able to pierce through the constant bombardment of questions about what he will “cut”, how many people will her “fire.” He correctly reminded voters of the Liberals turning Ontario into a debt-ridden economic basket case.

This was a tricky spot for Ford to be in, against two seasoned debaters, even his most ardent critics would have to acknowledge he came out a winner.

Perhaps the biggest loser was the lack of questions about issues that matter outside of the GTHA, where the election will actually be won.

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario is the early favourite in the Ontario provincial election which is set for June 7, according to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, Ontario PC Party Leader Doug Ford would receive 40 per cent of the decided popular vote, with Andrea Horwath‘s NDP receiving 29 per cent and Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals 26 per cent (down one point from early April), the poll found.

Much of Ford’s lead is down to his popularity in the seat-rich 905 suburbs surrounding Toronto, where the PCs (44 per cent) hold a considerable lead over the NDP (29 per cent) and the Liberals (24 per cent), with three per cent backing other candidates, according to the poll of 1,197 eligible Ontario voters interviewed between May 4 and May 7.

“The things he’s been talking about, particularly related to spending and taxes, and just even being able to talk to people in the 905 and his ability to connect with them is starting to come through,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Affairs.

“For some reason, neither the NDP nor the Liberal Party seems to have a similar type of connection, so [905 voters] seem to be very strongly interested in change, and the change they’re looking at is Doug Ford.”

The PCs also hold a solid lead over the Liberals and the NDP in southwestern and northern Ontario, while in the City of Toronto, the Tories (35 per cent) and Liberals (33 per cent) are neck and neck, with the NDP (26 per cent) not far behind.

In addition to leading in most regions, the Tories also have a solid lead in many of the key demographics — men (48 per cent to the Liberals and NDP at 25 per cent each), gen-Xers (44 per cent to the NDP’s 27 per cent and Liberals’ 24 per cent), boomers (44 per cent to the NDP’s 28 per cent and Liberals’ 25 per cent) as well as every single income group.

“It just shows you how desperately people want to get the Liberal Party out.”

Among millennials, there looks to be a three-way race between the NDP (34 per cent), PCs (30 per cent) and Liberals (29 per cent).

READ MORE: Doug Ford targeted by Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath in first major debate before election

Province-wide, the Progressive Conservatives appear to have the most committed voters, with 58 per cent of PC voters saying they’re fully certain about their vote choice, compared to only 34 per cent of Liberal voters and 27 per cent of NDP voters.

Progressive voters are yet to rally behind a single alternative in Wynne or Horwath, said Bricker, something that’s to Ford’s advantage.

“In spite of what the premier said in the debate tonight, the public perceives [the Liberals and NDP] as pretty close. So on everything, particularly on the compassion side, support for the environment, support for multicultural populations, the progressive agenda, they seem to be pretty evenly divided on their ability to deliver it,” Bricker said.

“If they’re so similar on those things, then really what it comes down to is which one of the two is the best option for stopping Doug Ford.”

The poll also found respondents evenly split between wanting a majority or minority government.

Among all possible minority government scenarios, the most popular was one in which the Conservatives govern in a minority government supported by the NDP, with 56 per cent of respondents supporting that option.

“It just shows you how desperately people want to get the Liberal Party out,” said Bricker.

“They’d be prepared to consider that type of an option, which by the way is probably a pretty unrealistic option.”

By comparison, only 34 per cent supported a Conservative minority government with support from the Liberals, and just 28 per cent would be OK with a Liberal minority government supported by the Conservatives.

Ultimately, this looks to be a “change” election, with three-quarters of Ontarians calling for change at Queen’s Park — only 23 per cent of respondents said the Wynne Liberals have done a good enough job to merit re-election.

Bricker says Wynne needs to take a leaf out of her 2014 campaign book when it comes to engaging with progressive voters.

“She has to find a way of consolidating people who are progressive voters in order to stop Doug Ford. She did it the last time to stop Tim Hudak, the question is whether she’ll be able to work that similar magic again,” he said.

As for Ford, his strong position early in the campaign means he’s well-positioned to become the next premier of Ontario, as long as he takes care of two things.

“One, not do anything to cause the people who are currently voting for him to reconsider their choice. Two, hope that on the other side of the agenda, the people who really want to stop him don’t get consolidated behind a single party.”

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 4 and 7, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,197 Ontario eligible voters was interviewed online (789 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel were interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling) and by telephone (408 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ via live-operator random-digit dialing, dual-frame cellphone and landline). Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible Ontario voters been polled.

the liberals have a high % at 31 but aren't polling especially high anywhere in the city so might not win very many seats , the pc's are low downtown but high everywhere else . ndp might be able to win back some of the seats they lost along waterfront )

Ford Wins The Debate, According to Torontonians

May 8, 2018|Mainstreet Research|Featured, Ontario, Public Polling

8 MAY 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – Torontonians think that Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford won last night’s debate, according to the latest Mainstreet Research poll.

The poll was conducted immediately after the conclusion of CityTV’s broadcast of the first provincial leaders’ debate. The poll surveyed 2000 Ontarians and has a margin of error of +/- 2.19% and is accurately 19 times out of 20.

35.1% of those who said they watched the debate thought that Ford won the debate. 24.3% thought that Andrea Horwath won, while 19.3% said that Premier Kathleen Wynne was the winner of the debate. 9.5% said that none of the leaders won and that the debate was a draw. 11.8% said that they were not sure.

“Doug Ford walked into last night’s debate as the front-runner and clearly Torontonians think that his debate performance matched his support in this polls,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“Debate viewers’ perceptions of Andrea Horwath’s performance is more positive than their thoughts on Wynne’s performance,” continued Maggi. “This is bad news for Wynne, as an important subtext in this election is the battle between Wynne and Horwath for the progressive voter in Ontario”, continued Maggi.

When asked which party they would vote for if the election were held today, 36.6% of decided and leaning voters said they would vote for the PCs, while 31.1% said that they would support the Liberals. The NDP currently garner 23.1%.

But Maggi said that these topline numbers do not tell the whole story.

“The NDP are ahead of the Liberals in the downtown core while the Liberals trail the PCs badly in the suburbs,” Maggi said. “This points to a potential situation where the Liberals end up with a handful of seats in Toronto despite having a strong showing in the popular vote.”

It would be good to have numbers from the 905 region. If this pattern holds there, Wynne faces a drubbing.

If helpful;
According to Ipsos;

Quote:

Much of Ford’s lead is down to his popularity in the seat-rich 905 suburbs surrounding Toronto, where the PCs (44 per cent) hold a considerable lead over the NDP (29 per cent) and the Liberals (24 per cent), with three per cent backing other candidates

It would be good to have numbers from the 905 region. If this pattern holds there, Wynne faces a drubbing.

the 905 numbers have shown the pc's leading for some time , can't recall any saying otherwise for some time , its the Toronto /416 numbers which have been bouncing back and forth between pc's and liberals

the liberals currently hold a lot of 905 ridings and its difficult to envision them holding many of them after June 7th based on the current numbers

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