Examining Long-Term Trends

By Robert Gordman

The commonly reported monthly comparable-store-sales change provides an interesting snap-shot of one month’s performance. The longer-range trend provides a truer insight into what is actually happening with an individual retailer or in an entire channel. The following analysis highlights retailers that have established consistently improving or declining long-term comparable-store-sales trends.

Observation

After reviewing the releases and the results for February, I think the less said about the month the better. When you take the least important month of the retail year (no reason for the consumer to buy) and combine it with extreme weather shifts (the lowest temperatures nationally in 18 years and 60% more snowfall than a year ago) it makes little sense to attempt to interpret the trend. With the shift in the timing of Easter, March will provide an excellent opportunity to assess the strength and stability of long-term trends.

Quarterly Reporters With a Declining Nine-Month Trend

Retailer

Last Reported Quarter

Last Six Months

Last Nine Months

Bombay Co.

–15.5%

–9.2%

–6.6%

Lowe’s

–5.3%

–4.7%

–1.8%

Mens Wearhouse

–1.5%

0.7%

1.6%

QVC

7.0%

9.1%

9.4%

Safeway

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

Staples

1.0%

2.5%

2.9%

Talbots Inc.

–1.6%

0.4%

0.7%

Whole Foods Market

6.2%

7.2%

8.0%

Source: The Gordman Group

Monthly Reporters With an Improving Six-Month Trend

Retailer

February 2006

February 2007

Previous 90 Days

Previous Six Months

BJs

1.6%

3.0%

1.0%

0.6%

Claire’s

4.0%

1.0%

0.6%

0.5%

Hot Topic

–8.4%

–2.7%

–5.2%

–5.9%

Jos. A. Bank Clothiers

3.3%

2.8%

2.4%

2.3%

Longs Drug Store

1.9%

2.7%

2.2%

2.0%

Saks, Inc.

–6.7%

24.7%

9.9%

9.4%

Sam’s Clubs

4.6%

3.9%

3.0%

2.6%

Target

3.6%

5.7%

4.8%

4.7%

Zumiez

28.0%

12.0%

11.9%

11.4%

Source: The Gordman Group

Monthly Reporters With a Declining Six-Month Trend

Retailer

February 2006

February 2007

Previous 90 Days

Previous Six Months

Abercrombie & Fitch

5.0%

–6.0%

–2.5%

0.6%

Chico’s

5.7%

–4.3%

–1.9%

–1.6%

CVS

5.9%

7.0%

8.5%

8.9%

Dillard’s

–2.0%

–9.0%

–4.1%

–3.1%

Dress Barn

5.0%

0.0%

5.3%

6.2%

Family Dollar

4.4%

–0.5%

1.3%

1.8%

Gymboree

19.0%

1.0%

8.0%

11.5%

Limited Brands

5.0%

3.0%

7.4%

8.4%

Penney

2.3%

–0.2%

2.2%

3.4%

Rite-Aid

2.3%

2.2%

3.2%

3.5%

Ross Stores

6.0%

1.0%

1.4%

3.1%

Stage Stores

-0.9%

1.4%

2.5%

3.2%

TJX

1.0%

2.0%

4.7%

5.4%

Walgreens

5.7%

8.6%

9.3%

9.7%

Source: The Gordman Group

Quarterly Reporters With an Improving Nine-Month Trend

Retailer

Last Reported Quarter

Last Six Months

Last Nine Months

Amazon

34.0%

30.3%

28.1%

J.Crew

19.0%

17.5%

15.8%

Payless ShoeSource

6.8%

6.0%

4.6%

Source: The Gordman Group

Visit www.chainstoreage.com for a full listing of monthly sales performance, and click on Monthly Sales under the “Industry Data” headline, on the left column.