Even now 'Brexit was wrong' still cannot get over 50% so even if Remain did scrape a win in EUref2 we would still be deeply divided and of course on those numbers both the Deal or No Deal Brexit could still beat it

All the ERG need to do to head this whole thing off is vote for TMay's deal - I know she loses the DUP but I guess she picks up a few rebel / oddball votes here and there, right? Voting it down and letting (remain-majority) parliament have a go doesn't look like a great gamble for them, are we sure they'll stay opposed?

All the ERG need to do to head this whole thing off is vote for TMay's deal - I know she loses the DUP but I guess she picks up a few rebel / oddball votes here and there, right? Voting it down and letting (remain-majority) parliament have a go doesn't look like a great gamble for them, are we sure they'll stay opposed?

Mark Francois wouldn’t vote for it if they put a shotgun in his mouth. We await his decision if they don’t indulge him on that front.

Leavers at some point will start asking themselves why they made no attempt to forge a consensus. But not yet, I fancy.

Yes that was curious. I went to bed on the night of the referendum expecting the result to be 52:48 the other way around. My thought was "how do we get all those people on board?". I don't know if I would have been typical, but I'd have rewarded conciliatory politicians who plotted a course away from further integration.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

I've seen precious little thinking from remainers about how they'd win a referendum. They've spent the last two years whinging, shouting and demanding a second referendum, but have done f-all to sell he EU to the public - and that's what they need to be doing.

All the ERG need to do to head this whole thing off is vote for TMay's deal - I know she loses the DUP but I guess she picks up a few rebel / oddball votes here and there, right? Voting it down and letting (remain-majority) parliament have a go doesn't look like a great gamble for them, are we sure they'll stay opposed?

Mark Francois wouldn’t vote for it if they put a shotgun in his mouth. We await his decision if they don’t indulge him on that front.

They have gone so OTT that's it hard to walk back from this kind of rhetoric (which clearly was stupid, even then)

All the ERG need to do to head this whole thing off is vote for TMay's deal - I know she loses the DUP but I guess she picks up a few rebel / oddball votes here and there, right? Voting it down and letting (remain-majority) parliament have a go doesn't look like a great gamble for them, are we sure they'll stay opposed?

Exactly, the ERG will end up with Parliament either voting for SM and CU or EUref2 otherwise

In the context of developments over the last two years, people are in practice answering this question:

"In hindsight, do you thing Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU given that the Government has agreed terms which would effectively lead to us staying in and with no future means to leave."

A voter still committed to leaving might well answer "wrong" to that question. It will be wrong to seek to leave until we have a government and parliament that is prepared to do that. Without that the EU can always offer the worst possible terms in the knowledge that it will induce the UK to have second thoughts and provide cover for those who want to ignore a referendum result.

In the context of developments over the last two years, people are in practice answering this question:

"In hindsight, do you thing Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU given that the Government has agreed terms which would effectively lead to us staying in and with no future means to leave."

A voter still committed to leaving might well answer "wrong" to that question. It will be wrong to seek to leave until we have a government and parliament that is prepared to do that. Without that the EU can always offer the worst possible terms in the knowledge that it will induce the UK to have second thoughts and provide cover for those who want to ignore a referendum result.

I've said in the past and I'll say again: massive constitutional change should always need 2/3rds of the electorate to pass for lack of mandate. Massive constitutional changes have massive political fallouts if done badly (and often, even if done well). Having a mandate of 52% does not give politicians the confidence they need that success would be rewarded. 66%+ at least allows politicians to stick their neck out and go "I can afford to lose some of the supporters and it will still be a majoritarian backed change". This is not, and never was, the case with leaving the EU. On a 52% majority the only thing that could be assured is that the majority of people will be disappointed in the eventual outcome. It erodes confidence in democracy (from both sides) and weakens our institutions. It also didn't help that those who won on the slimmest of margins decided to call the other sides traitors, remoaners and tantamount to treasonous, rather than consider them the "loyal opposition"; people you disagree with politically but do believe they have the national interest in their best interest.

My concern with a 2nd ref / not leaving is that many disaffected right leaning members of the electorate would just see it as an establishment stitch up, and go straight to the nearest would be fascist; whether that's UKIP as it sidles up to Tommy Robinson and the EDL or something that doesn't yet exist. I think the best course for Remain, the country and our democratic norms is to leave, on any terms, and then have a concerted campaign to reenter as soon as possible, with the understanding that that is exactly what Leavers did when they lost and we joined in the first place. I would rather it not be a 40 year campaign, but if that is what it takes I think that's what we should do.

In the event of a 2nd ref I think I'd abstain / book a holiday / hide.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

I've seen precious little thinking from remainers about how they'd win a referendum. They've spent the last two years whinging, shouting and demanding a second referendum, but have done f-all to sell he EU to the public - and that's what they need to be doing.

They've utterly wasted two years.

At least the Europhobes weren't so utterly lazy until after they won.

Yes, a second referendum with the Remainers rerunning Project Fear, only with added personal abuse of Boris (as we know from the Shipman book they think this is what cost them last time) will quite likely have the same result.

Especially if the headline poll that Brexit was wrong really means Brexit was right but HMG could not run a bath.

If remain could take a 10%+ lead over leave in polls, that would be more helpful.

Remain had a 10% lead over Leave on the 23rd of June 2016.

Only in one poll but we remain deeply divided

So you’re saying polls are not infallible?

I think the biggest risk at the moment is that we do have a second referendum and the polls have been wrong and leave wins again, this time as no deal. I’ve met few people who have changed their mind. In fact I would be tempted to vote for Leave this time, as I have been deeeply unimpressed with the political games of the EU, and the project fear projections of mass unemployment and recession didn’t happen and they swayed me towards remain.

What would the remain parties do in that circumstance? They have been going around saying that thick people were duped and didn’t have enough information. Not really a rallying cry for supporters

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

The Government either needs to start talking up the benefits of immigration, or focus on getting the numbers down.The current bi-polar approach won't wash. They should at least put out a few pdfs explaining what necessary jobs all the immigrants are doing.

The only attempted "coup" has been orchestrated by the ERG in terms of trying to deliver a no deal Brexit

Indeed. Boris being trashed by his own colleagues was pure theatre. He must know deep inside it is all over for him

It has taken a long time but the sensible conservative mps are beginning to take back the party from the ultras

Norway or remain are the likely outcomes and for my part I am comfortable with both

And in all this labour are 2% behind in today's poll.

As for TM she faces decision day on Tuesday. She will either:

Resign

Accept the vote and become collegiate(and this is a big opportunity for her but out of character)

Plough on and face an immediate vnoc in her and the government

You mean by "sensible conservative MPs" those who will betray both the manifesto they were elected on and the EU referendum and what David Cameron said pre referendum?

David Cameron said pre referendum if we vote leave we leave the single market.Vote Leave said if we vote leave we leave the single market.All campaigns on both sides and leading campaigners on both sides unanimously said if we vote leave we leave the single market.The 2017 manifesto said we leave the single market.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

If remain could take a 10%+ lead over leave in polls, that would be more helpful.

Remain had a 10% lead over Leave on the 23rd of June 2016.

Only in one poll but we remain deeply divided

So you’re saying polls are not infallible?

I think the biggest risk at the moment is that we do have a second referendum and the polls have been wrong and leave wins again, this time as no deal. I’ve met few people who have changed their mind. In fact I would be tempted to vote for Leave this time, as I have been deeeply unimpressed with the political games of the EU, and the project fear projections of mass unemployment and recession didn’t happen and they swayed me towards remain.

What would the remain parties do in that circumstance? They have been going around saying that thick people were duped and didn’t have enough information. Not really a rallying cry for supporters

I said on Saturday I’d expect (No Deal) Leave to win again.

I’m playing the long game.

We Leave without a deal and we Rejoin within a decade.

Leavers cannot say they weren’t denied democracy and the rest of us can point and laugh at them when things go mammary glands up.

No Deal will destroy them the way the 1939/1940 destroyed the appeasers.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

The Government either needs to start talking up the benefits of immigration, or focus on getting the numbers down.The current bi-polar approach won't wash.

People don’t care where immigrants come from. They just want numbers controlled so the strain on our infrastructure is reduced and Britain doesn’t continue its current drift to a cheap labour low skilled economy dependent upon immigration.

The only attempted "coup" has been orchestrated by the ERG in terms of trying to deliver a no deal Brexit

Indeed. Boris being trashed by his own colleagues was pure theatre. He must know deep inside it is all over for him

It has taken a long time but the sensible conservative mps are beginning to take back the party from the ultras

Norway or remain are the likely outcomes and for my part I am comfortable with both

And in all this labour are 2% behind in today's poll.

As for TM she faces decision day on Tuesday. She will either:

Resign

Accept the vote and become collegiate(and this is a big opportunity for her but out of character)

Plough on and face an immediate vnoc in her and the government

You mean by "sensible conservative MPs" those who will betray both the manifesto they were elected on and the EU referendum and what David Cameron said pre referendum?

David Cameron said pre referendum if we vote leave we leave the single market.Vote Leave said if we vote leave we leave the single market.All campaigns on both sides and leading campaigners on both sides unanimously said if we vote leave we leave the single market.The 2017 manifesto said we leave the single market.

"Norway or remain" are both remaining in the single market.

The ERG have only themselves to blame. They have over reached and now see everything they hoped for disappear under the weight of a Parliamentary democracy.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

I've seen precious little thinking from remainers about how they'd win a referendum. They've spent the last two years whinging, shouting and demanding a second referendum, but have done f-all to sell he EU to the public - and that's what they need to be doing.

They've utterly wasted two years.

At least the Europhobes weren't so utterly lazy until after they won.

Remainers would say something on the lines of "we can now see that Leave cannot be delivered as promised and it has caused all this chaos so it's time for a rethink" and this would be backed up by loads of talking heads saying why the voted leave and what they have changed their minds.

Leave would have a more difficult pitch - they would be saying "we know that Leaving has proved much more difficult than expected and almost everything we said at the last referendum has been proved wrong but we should go ahead with it anyway.

My concern with a 2nd ref / not leaving is that many disaffected right leaning members of the electorate would just see it as an establishment stitch up, and go straight to the nearest would be fascist; whether that's UKIP as it sidles up to Tommy Robinson and the EDL or something that doesn't yet exist. I think the best course for Remain, the country and our democratic norms is to leave, on any terms, and then have a concerted campaign to reenter as soon as possible, with the understanding that that is exactly what Leavers did when they lost and we joined in the first place. I would rather it not be a 40 year campaign, but if that is what it takes I think that's what we should do.

In the event of a 2nd ref I think I'd abstain / book a holiday / hide.

The problem with that argument is that the same people see this deal as just as much of an establishment stitch up, and would see any deal that ensures continuity as an establishment stitch up. A betrayal narrative is baked in, and going back to the people is actually the best way to mitigate it. If the poll numbers keep collapsing like this, Remain could win in a landslide.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

The Government either needs to start talking up the benefits of immigration, or focus on getting the numbers down.The current bi-polar approach won't wash. They should at least put out a few pdfs explaining what necessary jobs all the immigrants are doing.

We could also point out that EU migrants tend to be young, healthy and educated, put little strain on the NHS and contribute via taxes. Immigrants from poorer areas tend to be less healthy, less educated and contribute less via taxes - it's not their fault, they simply come from somewhere where they got off to a worse start in life.

If we are talking immigration, it is not EU immigration we need to worry about.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

If remain could take a 10%+ lead over leave in polls, that would be more helpful.

Remain had a 10% lead over Leave on the 23rd of June 2016.

Only in one poll but we remain deeply divided

So you’re saying polls are not infallible?

I think the biggest risk at the moment is that we do have a second referendum and the polls have been wrong and leave wins again, this time as no deal. I’ve met few people who have changed their mind. In fact I would be tempted to vote for Leave this time, as I have been deeeply unimpressed with the political games of the EU, and the project fear projections of mass unemployment and recession didn’t happen and they swayed me towards remain.

What would the remain parties do in that circumstance? They have been going around saying that thick people were duped and didn’t have enough information. Not really a rallying cry for supporters

I know a few people who either voted leave last time as a protest and were shocked from the moment they actually won, and some who are pretty turned off by recent goings on.

But this is nevertheless why if Parliament agrees a vote it will be deal v remain.

On the assumption the May Deal fails in the Commons (as it seems to be failing in the country as well despite the media blitz and the tour), what then?

As I understand it, the passing of the Grieve Amendment yesterday leaves the ball firmly in the hands of MPs but my confusion stems from the fact for all their supposed power, sovereignty and legitimacy, there seem to be very few options.

Those who blether on about Norway forget the key aspect of Freedom of Movement. I suspect trying to sell a Brexit without ending Freedom of Movement isn't going to end well (those advocating REMAIN in a second referendum also have to get past this thorniest of issues).

As for killing off No Deal, nothing that happened yesterday has accomplished that. If there is no majority in Parliament for any option, then there is no agreement agreed and we leave without an agreement. Parliament voting against a No Deal accomplishes the sum total of bugger all.

Presumably the hope of May and her supporters is the contemplation of imagined disaster (I see Carney has been wheeled out to forecast plagues of locusts and 10% inflation but his credibility is running into the sand as well) will swing the votes back her way. The NIESR numbers didn't look anywhere near as dramatic and if there is some disruption some may well ask why the Government hadn't adequately prepared for the contingency of not achieving a Deal which must always have been a risk (and which should, as in every project, have been properly assessed and analysed).

My concern with a 2nd ref / not leaving is that many disaffected right leaning members of the electorate would just see it as an establishment stitch up, and go straight to the nearest would be fascist; whether that's UKIP as it sidles up to Tommy Robinson and the EDL or something that doesn't yet exist. I think the best course for Remain, the country and our democratic norms is to leave, on any terms, and then have a concerted campaign to reenter as soon as possible, with the understanding that that is exactly what Leavers did when they lost and we joined in the first place. I would rather it not be a 40 year campaign, but if that is what it takes I think that's what we should do.

In the event of a 2nd ref I think I'd abstain / book a holiday / hide.

The problem with that argument is that the same people see this deal as just as much of an establishment stitch up, and would see any deal that ensures continuity as an establishment stitch up. A betrayal narrative is baked in, and going back to the people is actually the best way to mitigate it. If the poll numbers keep collapsing like this, Remain could win in a landslide.

But that is why you need a bigger mandate than 52% for huge, complex constitutional change. If 66% of people had been persuaded to vote leave, I think it would be fair to say a) we would probably still have something like this deal (because the EU have agreed to this so this must be something close to their preferred exit position) b) more politicians who are neutralish would be willing to put their necks out for the deal c) many Remainers would have been more willing to accept the result and d) a deal could have been crafted that lost 10% of leave voters and still, arguably, be the will of the majority of the populace.

This is not the case.

I think the situation is a hotbed for extreme right wing resurgence in this country. Outside of Brexit, the extreme right is making gains around the world. Leaving on a bad deal will lead to "traitor narratives", not leaving at all would mean the same. And leaving on the terms the populous understand (no deal, out means out, why can't we just leave, etc) would allow for chaos and uncertainty which the far right can exploit. I do not see a good path out.

Leave would have a more difficult pitch - they would be saying "we know that Leaving has proved much more difficult than expected and almost everything we said at the last referendum has been proved wrong but we should go ahead with it anyway.

If I was them I'd do:1) A process argument about voting twice to get it through their thick heads etc2) A general "everything will work out, it's just Project Fear again" kind of argument, featuring things Remain supporters predicted would happen right after the referendum that didn't

I think Remain would be odds-on but this isn't terrible ground for Leave to fight on.

My concern with a 2nd ref / not leaving is that many disaffected right leaning members of the electorate would just see it as an establishment stitch up, and go straight to the nearest would be fascist; whether that's UKIP as it sidles up to Tommy Robinson and the EDL or something that doesn't yet exist. I think the best course for Remain, the country and our democratic norms is to leave, on any terms, and then have a concerted campaign to reenter as soon as possible, with the understanding that that is exactly what Leavers did when they lost and we joined in the first place. I would rather it not be a 40 year campaign, but if that is what it takes I think that's what we should do.

In the event of a 2nd ref I think I'd abstain / book a holiday / hide.

The problem with that argument is that the same people see this deal as just as much of an establishment stitch up, and would see any deal that ensures continuity as an establishment stitch up. A betrayal narrative is baked in, and going back to the people is actually the best way to mitigate it. If the poll numbers keep collapsing like this, Remain could win in a landslide.

Indeed. ERG credibility was trashed by the failure of the Lemming Letter Club to find the edge of the cliff.

Leave would have a more difficult pitch - they would be saying "we know that Leaving has proved much more difficult than expected and almost everything we said at the last referendum has been proved wrong but we should go ahead with it anyway.

If I was them I'd do:1) A process argument about voting twice to get it through their thick heads etc2) A general "everything will work out, it's just Project Fear again" kind of argument, featuring things Remain supporters predicted would happen right after the referendum that didn't

I think Remain would be odds-on but this isn't terrible ground for Leave to fight on.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

I just don’t see that in the polling. Corbyn’s leadership ratings have steadily weakened. People can see that Labour are trying to sit on the fence and that is the opposite of leadership. If they were making a strong case of opposition they would look like an alternative government and be way ahead in the polls. I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election. There was also a feeling that Theresa May didn’t need a strong mandate for Brexit, and the Tories couldn’t be trusted with it not to inflict something terrible on domestic policy.

If May did win a VONC and called an election the first thing she should say is that at the last election she asked the electorate for a strong backing to improve her negotiating position with the EU, and it was not given, and it should be given this time for those who want to leave the EU. I went to the barbers this morning and the three barbers were talking about if Article 50 could be revoked so there may be more cut through now?

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

Leavers cannot say they weren’t denied democracy and the rest of us can point and laugh at them when things go mammary glands up.

No Deal will destroy them the way the 1939/1940 destroyed the appeasers.

No deal followed by rejoin is the only viable path. May's deal is dead. Norway is balls that pleases almost nobody. Nobody can remember what the fuck Chequers was even about. Remain without the cleansing flames of pas d'entente will cause leavers to have even more sand in their manginas.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

When signing on to PB this morning I got the usual list of adverts from bookies. One of them, I think those self efacing people from Paddy Power, was asking would May be resigning today? Not something I would bet on but the fact that the question could even be asked made me pause. If there is an opinion in the legal advice that she has flatly contradicted she will be in serious trouble even if it is just an honest difference of opinion. After yesterday she is hanging on by a thread.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

Indeed, but the correct response should have been "It is not EU immigration that we should be worrying about". IIRC, 2/3rds of our immigration is non-EU

I have a friend who was at a meeting the other day explaining to a load of people how leaving the EU will make the UK less white quicker, because we need immigrant labour to function, and if Europeans don't want to come work here, we will invite more people from China, the Commonwealth and elsewhere. These were high up business people, some Conservatives and mostly leavers, and they didn't like what they heard. The options suggested were either: force companies to pay more for low skilled work so Brits want to do it, government investment in education and health so as to create a better workforce, or basically outright demagoguery on the issue.

I get the feeling I know which strategy is more likely from a May led government and which is more likely from a Corbyn led government...

If remain could take a 10%+ lead over leave in polls, that would be more helpful.

Remain had a 10% lead over Leave on the 23rd of June 2016.

Only in one poll but we remain deeply divided

So you’re saying polls are not infallible?

I think the biggest risk at the moment is that we do have a second referendum and the polls have been wrong and leave wins again, this time as no deal. I’ve met few people who have changed their mind. In fact I would be tempted to vote for Leave this time, as I have been deeeply unimpressed with the political games of the EU, and the project fear projections of mass unemployment and recession didn’t happen and they swayed me towards remain.

What would the remain parties do in that circumstance? They have been going around saying that thick people were duped and didn’t have enough information. Not really a rallying cry for supporters

I know a few people who either voted leave last time as a protest and were shocked from the moment they actually won, and some who are pretty turned off by recent goings on.

But this is nevertheless why if Parliament agrees a vote it will be deal v remain.

I would prefer transferable vote and three options that are rated 1 2 and 3

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election.

My understanding is that it was actually the opposite although I can't find the surveys which said so after a quick look.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

I've seen precious little thinking from remainers about how they'd win a referendum. They've spent the last two years whinging, shouting and demanding a second referendum, but have done f-all to sell he EU to the public - and that's what they need to be doing.

They've utterly wasted two years.

At least the Europhobes weren't so utterly lazy until after they won.

TBF, the Europhobes have been doing a pretty good job of demonstrating why not leaving the EU was a fairly good idea.

To some degree, simply pointing and laughing at the Brexiteers will be enough.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

I just don’t see that in the polling. Corbyn’s leadership ratings have steadily weakened. People can see that Labour are trying to sit on the fence and that is the opposite of leadership. If they were making a strong case of opposition they would look like an alternative government and be way ahead in the polls. I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election. There was also a feeling that Theresa May didn’t need a strong mandate for Brexit, and the Tories couldn’t be trusted with it not to inflict something terrible on domestic policy.

If May did win a VONC and called an election the first thing she should say is that at the last election she asked the electorate for a strong backing to improve her negotiating position with the EU, and it was not given, and it should be given this time for those who want to leave the EU. I went to the barbers this morning and the three barbers were talking about if Article 50 could be revoked so there may be more cut through now?

Labour have polled within 5% of the Tories fairly consistently despite the problems they have have with anti semitism, misogyny, and incoherent policy. The warnings from business about how bad a Corbyn & McDonnell Gov would actually be have had no effect. The polls showing people trust May more than Corbyn don’t seem to translate into polls about how people would vote.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election.

My understanding is that it was actually the opposite although I can't find the surveys which said so after a quick look.

If you are trying to say that Labour broke 40% despite people not turning out to vote Labour because of Corbyn I would be very surprised. Corbyn did really well to ride the plucky underdog wagon, and avoid significant scrutiny of the fantasy manifesto. I have said this before on this forum. Elections are often a reaction to the previous election. People were surprised when Cameron got a majority and the polling had Theresa May 20 points ahead. The media reported Corbyn had no chance. As a Labour supporter, even if I didn’t like Corbyn and wanted a hard Brexit, would I personally want to vote for May when she was going to win anyway? I think that saw a swing to Labour.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

Most of our immigration is from outside the EU. That has always been under our control. Even treating immigrants as criminals (Windrush) does not seem to put people off.

Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit

They are central to Brexit. I don't want to bang on about it but the critical point in the pre-Referendum campaign was Hoey vs Herbert on DP. Hoey asked point blank what could be done about EU immigration if we remained and answer had Herbert none.

Now that the betting's moving towards a 2nd referendum, there's enough value in "no referendum before 2020" to start having a bet. Although I'm against Brexit and do wonder if it might be paused or stopped, I still think the path to a 2nd referendum is strewn with obstacles. First, neither the Tory nor Labour leader will (currently) propose one; that means it'd have to be put forward by another MP, which would be unprecedented, or there'll have to be a new leader. Secondly, even if we ignore the indirect threats of civil disturbance, the idea is likely to become less popular again when MPs consider how it might or might not work. The potentially low turnout is a factor, but the biggest threat is a boycott, and there's really no point calling a referendum if it's going to be boycotted.

The only attempted "coup" has been orchestrated by the ERG in terms of trying to deliver a no deal Brexit

Indeed. Boris being trashed by his own colleagues was pure theatre. He must know deep inside it is all over for him

It has taken a long time but the sensible conservative mps are beginning to take back the party from the ultras

Norway or remain are the likely outcomes and for my part I am comfortable with both

And in all this labour are 2% behind in today's poll.

As for TM she faces decision day on Tuesday. She will either:

Resign

Accept the vote and become collegiate(and this is a big opportunity for her but out of character)

Plough on and face an immediate vnoc in her and the government

You mean by "sensible conservative MPs" those who will betray both the manifesto they were elected on and the EU referendum and what David Cameron said pre referendum?

David Cameron said pre referendum if we vote leave we leave the single market.Vote Leave said if we vote leave we leave the single market.All campaigns on both sides and leading campaigners on both sides unanimously said if we vote leave we leave the single market.The 2017 manifesto said we leave the single market.

"Norway or remain" are both remaining in the single market.

The ERG have only themselves to blame. They have over reached and now see everything they hoped for disappear under the weight of a Parliamentary democracy.

The mps will decide

What leave promised in the referendum is undeliverable (easiest deal in history, etc). Therefore the end outcome was always going to be a compromise. The ERG / hard core remainers just won't accept it. Which is why we are where we are.

The negotiations couldn’t have been handled any worse by a cackhanded Gov with no idea of what to do next. However,just wait for the backlash if we don’t do Brexit as the economy fails to improve, immigration ramps up again, the EU contributions escalate, and fisheries continue to be dominated by overseas trawlers. Not doing Brexit might well lead to a Corbyn Gov and then the economy will be in huge trouble.

Corbyn asnt exactly prioritised Brexit getting through. Would the backlash not be against him. The Labour Party are at the point where riding two horses is not going to be possible

Corbyn has focussed his agenda on domestic policy whilst the Gov makes a mess of Brexit so my reading is that his support is more solid. The Tories failed on Brexit and they will feel the wrath of the electorate. The fact that Corbyn is as clueless on domestic policy as he is on Brexit doesn’t seem to matter to Labour voters.

I just don’t see that in the polling. Corbyn’s leadership ratings have steadily weakened. People can see that Labour are trying to sit on the fence and that is the opposite of leadership. If they were making a strong case of opposition they would look like an alternative government and be way ahead in the polls. I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election. There was also a feeling that Theresa May didn’t need a strong mandate for Brexit, and the Tories couldn’t be trusted with it not to inflict something terrible on domestic policy.

If May did win a VONC and called an election the first thing she should say is that at the last election she asked the electorate for a strong backing to improve her negotiating position with the EU, and it was not given, and it should be given this time for those who want to leave the EU. I went to the barbers this morning and the three barbers were talking about if Article 50 could be revoked so there may be more cut through now?

Labour have polled within 5% of the Tories fairly consistently despite the problems they have have with anti semitism, misogyny, and incoherent policy. The warnings from business about how bad a Corbyn & McDonnell Gov would actually be have had no effect. The polls showing people trust May more than Corbyn don’t seem to translate into polls about how people would vote.

But mid term polls tend to have opposition leads. Milliband (!?!) was well ahead of Cameron for most of the Parliament. Blair had massive leads ahead of 1997.

Andrea Leadsom has been whingeing about how reluctant she is to publish the advice even if she will publish it, at around 11.30am. About how mistaken the Commons was yesterday. About how future parliamentarians will regret it. Bercow should tell her to stuff a sock in it.

Interesting that she doesn't say "Fine. We'll obey the sacred will of the Commons and we'll have smiles on our faces as we do it". Theresa May supported Remain and then after Remain lost she said "Brexit means Brexit", and she ensured the populace that she would strive 23 hours a day to achieve it, blah blah. Leadsom and May could both take the line that "Publication means publication".

The way they tried to make Geoffrey Cox their front man is equally unpleasant. He is just one member of the cabinet and government that have been contemptuous of the Commons. He happens to have written the document. That's all. In practice, Leadsom as Leader of the House and Theresa May as prime minister have much more responsibility for the decision than he does. What crap leaders they are. Their government deserves to fall apart.

Spot the way the meme is changing? Whinge whinge whinge. "The Commons' decision was wrong but we'll grudgingly abide by it".

There's obviously going to be a referendum with Remain as an option. The amendment that proposes it may even be on the statute book before the House rises on 20 December.

Anybody who holds an investment in May still being in office on April Fool's Day 2019 is kidding themselves.

If (huge If) May had formed in June 2016, as she intimated yesterday she was doing now, a coalition from "all sides of the house" and then had the negotiations amongst each side play out in complete transparency in public so that at each stage, for example, the public could have seen JRM ask for a North Korea-style Brexit, and Shami Chakrabati ask for a ***-free Brexit, I mean membership of the single market-type Brexit, then May could have been the sage above it all and any compromise would more likely to have been accepted.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

I imagine they will continue to call anyone who has concerns about mass immigration as horrible racists.

I’m looking forward to the posters saying. Last time we told you it would be difficult now we can see it’s impossible to leave . Vote remain. That would go down well

Last time we all swore (with our fingers crossed) that the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult.

Following on from my previous thought, what do Remainers intend to say in any upcoming referendum about immigration? I have seen no signs of fresh thinking on that front.

I imagine they will continue to call anyone who has concerns about mass immigration as horrible racists.

I’m looking forward to the posters saying. Last time we told you it would be difficult now we can see it’s impossible to leave . Vote remain. That would go down well

Last time we all swore (with our fingers crossed) that the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult.

You really do have a blind spot about this David. It's not control, it's integration and association. If you are Peugeot and you decide you don't want to use Michelin tyres any more then you need to have worked out your alternatives before you tell them it's over*.

If (huge If) May had formed in June 2016, as she intimated yesterday she was doing now, a coalition from "all sides of the house" and then had the negotiations amongst each side play out in complete transparency in public so that at each stage, for example, the public could have seen JRM ask for a North Korea-style Brexit, and Shami Chakrabati ask for a ***-free Brexit, I mean membership of the single market-type Brexit, then May could have been the sage above it all and any compromise would more likely to have been accepted.

When signing on to PB this morning I got the usual list of adverts from bookies. One of them, I think those self efacing people from Paddy Power, was asking would May be resigning today? Not something I would bet on but the fact that the question could even be asked made me pause. If there is an opinion in the legal advice that she has flatly contradicted she will be in serious trouble even if it is just an honest difference of opinion. After yesterday she is hanging on by a thread.

I’ve wondered this. Journalists will now put the documents side by side and look for the inconsistencies. It could be however that they did not want our concerns available to the EU if further negotiations necessary, or it could be that they did not want to set a precedent for releasing legal advice.

Last time we all swore (with our fingers crossed) that the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult.

No

This bit is true "the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. "

This bit is not. "This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult. "

The extent of the integration of our economy with our largest trading partner means that leaving is difficult and expensive (which we also said first time round) and the damage outweighs any conceivable benefit

If (huge If) May had formed in June 2016, as she intimated yesterday she was doing now, a coalition from "all sides of the house" and then had the negotiations amongst each side play out in complete transparency in public so that at each stage, for example, the public could have seen JRM ask for a North Korea-style Brexit, and Shami Chakrabati ask for a ***-free Brexit, I mean membership of the single market-type Brexit, then May could have been the sage above it all and any compromise would more likely to have been accepted.

Last time we all swore (with our fingers crossed) that the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult.

No

This bit is true "the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. "

This bit is not. "This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult. "

The extent of the integration of our economy with our largest trading partner means that leaving is difficult and expensive (which we also said first time round) and the damage outweighs any conceivable benefit

+1

The EU are not stopping us leaving. The Brexit shambles is completely self-inflicted because we still do not know what "Brexit" actually is - there are so many versions and no agreement.

If (huge If) May had formed in June 2016, as she intimated yesterday she was doing now, a coalition from "all sides of the house" and then had the negotiations amongst each side play out in complete transparency in public so that at each stage, for example, the public could have seen JRM ask for a North Korea-style Brexit, and Shami Chakrabati ask for a ***-free Brexit, I mean membership of the single market-type Brexit, then May could have been the sage above it all and any compromise would more likely to have been accepted.

But she didn't.

Some of us urged that repeatedly at the time. I said the government should be bringing Mandelson ( who probably knows more about decision making in the EU than anyone else in the country) and the likes of Benn into the team, even if Corbyn refused to play. By making Brexit a Tory project the government has doomed it. A 52:48 win and a minority government was never going to be strong enough to resist the remainers.

Above them, expensive and lovely as a rich child's toy,The aeroplanes fly in the new European air,On the edge of that air that makes England of little importance,And the tides warn bronzing bathers of a cooling starWith half its history done.

I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election.

My understanding is that it was actually the opposite although I can't find the surveys which said so after a quick look.

If you are trying to say that Labour broke 40% despite people not turning out to vote Labour because of Corbyn I would be very surprised. Corbyn did really well to ride the plucky underdog wagon, and avoid significant scrutiny of the fantasy manifesto. I have said this before on this forum. Elections are often a reaction to the previous election. People were surprised when Cameron got a majority and the polling had Theresa May 20 points ahead. The media reported Corbyn had no chance. As a Labour supporter, even if I didn’t like Corbyn and wanted a hard Brexit, would I personally want to vote for May when she was going to win anyway? I think that saw a swing to Labour.

I meant exactly what I quoted you saying (or the opposite that I mentioned)

Polling showed that those who voted Labour were actually more likely to do so as they thought Labour were more likely to win.

It probably represents a problem in understanding because you feel personally so differently to Corbyn but people weren't voting hoping to lose.

To the other points which I didn't make....

All parties have people who vote for them despite not being enthusiastic about the leader. The idea that Corbyn had this especially and other political leaders throughout time have had only enthusiastic voters who believed in them is nonsense. Labour and the Tories had a similar share of votes cast negatively (against others) in their favour.

For the other parts I liked Corbyn's suggestion that the Daily Mail make it 26 pages next time. The right wing papers should hold no fear for Labour.

Now that the betting's moving towards a 2nd referendum, there's enough value in "no referendum before 2020" to start having a bet. Although I'm against Brexit and do wonder if it might be paused or stopped, I still think the path to a 2nd referendum is strewn with obstacles. First, neither the Tory nor Labour leader will (currently) propose one; that means it'd have to be put forward by another MP, which would be unprecedented, or there'll have to be a new leader. Secondly, even if we ignore the indirect threats of civil disturbance, the idea is likely to become less popular again when MPs consider how it might or might not work. The potentially low turnout is a factor, but the biggest threat is a boycott, and there's really no point calling a referendum if it's going to be boycotted.

Yes, postponing Brexit but not actually doing anything decisive to resolve it seems kind-of plausible. It's not clear that the EU side will agree an extension without an affirmative decision from Britain to take another course, but the EU hardly ever saw a can it didn't kick, and they must know that the longer things go without Brexit happening, the less likely it is to happen.

On the actual procedure for getting a referendum, I think the simplest way is that the PM cuts a deal with a big enough group of MPs to pass her deal, subject to a binding referendum (with a "remain" option). That way she can blame the referendum on the MPs, and the MPs can blame the necessity for the referendum on her terrible deal. The complication is that the PM could get fired or the government felled at any time during the legislative process, but there must be a reasonable chance that whatever unlucky person ends up with her job finds themselves in the same box.