Energy Market Analysis - 18-08-2017

Gas prices displayed mixed movement yesterday with unplanned outages providing support on the near-curve. LNG nominations were also lower, with concerns in regards to French nuclear power also a factor behind any increases. Further out, Brent was rather stable for most of the session and provided little support to gas contracts.

A healthier renewable generation forecast for today helped to restrict upward movement on the prompt yesterday. However, the rest of the curve displayed gains with direction coming from rising gas and oil. News of safety checks at a number of French nuclear facilities also fuelled bullish sentiment.

Market Open

Market Open

Gas contracts have climbed higher this morning as the system has opened 8mcm short as Langeled flows remain low. However, these levels are expected to increase throughout the session and could balance the system. Meanwhile stronger Brent has supported the far-curve but losses cannot be ruled out this afternoon with an expected market sell-off.

Power prices increased at the start of the session with direction coming from stronger gas and oil markets. High wind generation did little to curb the gains at the front of the curve, while fears in regards to limited nuclear availability in France continues to cause volatility.

Brent 1st-nearby prices rebounded yesterday and now trade back above $51.1/b, the market continues to fluctuate as a drop in the US rig count competes with on-going oversupply as the main market driver.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 44.89ppt and £45.69/MWh, respectively.

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