As day turns into night, so Taylor Swift turns a broken relationship into a new hit pop song. Indeed, at this point, it could be argued that Taylor Swift specifically dates people just so she can seek inspiration from breaking up with them – or perhaps Swift’s romances occur in a quantum state, such that she is simultaneously in love with her paramour and already writing the first draft of their break-up song. In any case, this week Swift released the sternly-worded “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” a charming little ditty about an on-again/off-again relationship that is ultimately off-again-forever. The Internet is already buzzing with rumors about the identity of the subject of “Never Ever.” We analyzed the most likely candidates, and using science, we came up with the odds that the song was actually about them.

Joe Jonas: Taylor Swift has famously accused her first celebrity boyfriend of breaking up with her over the phone. Well, the guy in “Never Ever” uses the phone frequently. He’s like a real phone guy. “We break up, you call me, I love you,” sings Swift. “He calls me up and he’s like, I still love you.” Then again, Joe Jonas has already gone on the record saying that song isn’t about him. Then again, what does Joe Jonas know? This isn’t 2008! This is 2012! Also, what’s a Joe Jonas? Is that similar to a Justin Bieber? 6-1

Taylor Lautner: The gossip-sphere suffered a minor aneurysm when Taylor briefly maybe-dated her Valentine’s Day co-star. Roll with me on this for a second, but maybe the constant repetition of certain lyrics is a coded message to Swift’s fans that the song is actually about Lautner? Like, “ever ever” = “Taylor Taylor.” Not buying it? Us neither. 10-1

John Mayer: Swift already wrote one song about her dalliance with the fratboy-folk icon. But hey, if James Joyce could write an entire book about a single day in the life of an Irish dude in the early 20th century, surely Swift can write more than one song about the world’s least popular Johnny Depp impersonator. 9-1

Jake Gyllenhaal: The song notably does not mention coffee. No way it’s about Gyllenhaal. 15-1

Chord Overstreet: The two blonde youngsters were rumored to be stepping out for a little while last year. But it seems unthinkable that Taylor Swift would write a song about Chord Overstreet and not use his name. Think of the rhyming possibilities! “Bored Overstreet.” “Roared Overstreet.” “Adored Overstreet.” No way Tay-Sway wouldn’t juice that lyric fruit. 7-1

Will Anderson: The only really helpful detail in “Never Ever” is the line “You would hide away and find your peace of mind/with some indie record that’s much cooler than mine.” At one point, Swift was spotted frequently with Will Anderson, lead singer in the band Parachute – which could be considered “indie,” sort of, at least compared to a zeitgeist-dominating radio juggernaut like Swift. 3-1