Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively

The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

The index assesses and compares the quality of regulations that influence financial inclusion in 8 Latin American countries. It defines three categories of regulatory practices: the enablers, which determine the overall quality of the financial environment; the promoters, which deal with specific market frictions; and the preventers which create distortions and barriers.

Uruguay returns to growth, 1.9% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, with a strong impulse from investment. The fiscal balance is improving, although at a slower rate than expected. Inflation will remain outside the target range, reaching 8% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018. The Fx rate will end 2017 at $31.1, avoiding a deterioration in competitiveness vis a vis its main regional partners

Uruguay will grow by just 0.5% in 2016, but expectations for 2017 are improving thanks to a positive contribution from external demand.
Inflation is starting to ease thanks to reduced pressures from the exchange rate and from demand, but will once again exceed the target range.

Uruguay is in a leading position in terms of digital content compared to other countries in the region, as shown in the 2015 Structural Digitization Index developed by BBVA Research. In this regard, Uruguay’s digital scenario is close to that of developed countries like Luxembourg, Ireland and Belgium, among others.

Growth in GDP will be sluggish in 2016 (0.7%), marked by the stagnation in private consumption. GDP will increase 1.5% in 2017. The dollar will see out the year at $ 35.2 per unit, and will reach $37.1 at the end of the next year. Inflation: 9.2% in 2016 and 8.7% in 2017: inflation inertia will be constrained by real wages

Internal demand is contracting more rapidly than expected, driven by declining confidence indicators and a weaker labour market. A five-year budget with a fiscal adjustment which looks unambitious in the context of an optimistic macro scenario. Inflation will reach 9.2% in 2015 and 8.5% in 2016. The government is changing its strategy to undo wage indexation

After the later inflation surprise to the upside in South America, we estimate the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate to prices for each country of the region. In general, there is no strong evidence that it has increased significantly over the past year, but that it has been the sheer scale of depreciation which has driven inflation in Latin America.

LatAm growth will remain low in 2015 and will slowly pick up in 2016, though still below the region’s potential level. Unevenness will continue in the region, with Brazil in recession and the Pacific Alliance growing at around 3%.

We are revising LatAm growth downwards to 0.6% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016. The weakness of confidence is hampering domestic demand, but regional growth will rise in 2016, spurred by a concerted public investment effort in the Andean countries and greater world growth. The Pacific Alliance will continue to grow at above the regional average.

New ways of understanding banking, technological improvements, and regulation yield new means of interaction between customers and banks through outsourcing agreements. This paper provides the first harmonised database with information on the number of banking correspondents by country, which helps in measuring access to the formal financial system.

World growth will continue to move upwards, albeit slowly and very unevenly. The fall in oil prices is positive for the world economy, but it has varying effects.Volatility in the region’s financial markets will continue. The Fed rate hikes will have a negative effect on capital flows into the region, which adds to lower commodity export prices.