Russia

Democracy departs

Vladimir Putin last night implored Russians to vote for the party whose list he heads in Sunday's parliamentary election. But if voters fail to heed the message on posters the size of apartment blocks, proclaiming that "Putin's Victory is Russia's Victory", the Kremlin's nervous apparatchiks are preparing to employ "administrative means" to win. Russia's fifth parliamentary election since the collapse of communism could be its most falsified yet.

As the Guardian reports today, thousands of local officials have to report for work on their day off to inflate the pro-Putin vote. Both opposition and independent sources say that local governors have been given quotas of votes that have to be cast for United Russia, Mr Putin's party. Public-sector workers, including doctors, teachers and university deans, have been told to vote for the party or face the sack and loss of bonuses. Tutors have told their students to photograph their ballot paper alongside their passport in the voting booth with their mobile phones. If they refuse they may not make the grade in their examinations. Even the country's 4 million homeless people are being conscripted into service - for the price of a free meal. If none of this works, the central election commission's computer is on hand to finesse the results. It is not obvious why Mr Putin feels he needs to manipulate the result. He is the most popular leader Russia has had in a generation. He is young - only 55 - and in rude good health, and his personal approval ratings consistently top 80%. There is no need to exaggerate his support - it is genuine. But the president has a problem. He wants to remain the "national leader", but the constitution, which he has repeatedly vowed to observe, says that he can not serve a third consecutive term as president.

None of the alternatives are good ones. If he appoints a placeman as his successor, and continues in power as prime minister or chairman of the national security council, he is taking a risk: his appointee could swiftly become his own man. Mr Putin only has to think back to his own days of political obscurity, when he was head of the Federal Security Service. An ailing President Yeltsin appointed him prime minister to everyone's utter surprise, and anointed him as his successor. Mr Putin has kept the Yeltsin family's financial secrets, but has led his nation far away from the policies of the Yeltsin era. Besides, it is the president, not the prime minister, who represents Russia abroad. How can Mr Putin make good on his promise to stand up to the west if he can not even be there in person to do so?

Mr Putin has until March next year, when his term of office expires, to solve the tricky question of his succession, but on Sunday he needs an overwhelming mandate. An election which started life as a parliamentary one has become a referendum on his presidency. Left to their own devices the time servers of United Russia would get only 35% of the vote. That is not enough. To obtain a strong mandate of over 50% of all available voters Mr Putin needs United Russia to win the support of seven out of 10 people who make it to the polls. Hence the dash to get the vote out - and the reluctance to allow large numbers of foreign observers in.

In a paternalistic regime, Russia's rulers are burdened by a heavy political handicap: no one trusts them. Successive opinion polls show that if the people love their president, they hate everyone in between: the policemen, the local justice, the governor, the minister, the government. Some provinces are shrewdly governed, but in those areas where corruption runs rife there is little or no civil society to cushion the blows of misrule. As one popular opposition MP says (he is just about to lose the seat he has won four times), this election is a Kremlin biathlon. In a normal biathlon sportsmen shoot the target. In the Kremlin version judges shoot the sportsmen. So it is Putin or bust. Democracy is for another day.

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