making sense of loose coffeeshop talk, political analyses and comments

How should we judge a government?

"If you're not careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed, and loving the people who are doing the oppressing." - Malcolm X

In Malaysia, if you don't watch television or read newspapers, you are uninformed; but if you do, you are misinformed!

Why we should be against censorship: Publicity is the very soul of justice … it keeps the judge himself, while trying, under trial. - Jeremy Bentham

"Our government is like a baby's alimentary canal, with a happy appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other. " - Ronald Reagan

Government fed by the people

Career options

Prevent bullying now!

If you're not going to speak up, how is the world supposed to know you exist? “Orang boleh pandai setinggi langit, tapi selama ia tidak menulis, ia akan hilang di dalam masyarakat dan dari sejarah.” - Ananta Prameodya Toer (Your intellect may soar to the sky but if you do not write, you will be lost from society and to history.)

MyCen News

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Dr Rosli Khan: Johor: How they will vote

with a special detailed analysis on Gelang Patah where BN's Abdul Ghani Othman is pitted against DAP's Lim Kit Siang.

Excerpt:

"ANALYSIS Apr 29: The wind of change is blowing very strongly in Johor. It would not be a surprise if election results in Johor upset BN, as the coalition had always thought that Johor was a 'safe deposit' state.

It is true that in 2008, Johor voters generally did not swing much to PR, not as much when compared to Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah. ( * see below, my update from The Malay Mail figures)

But this coming GE13 is quite different for Johor. The situations at the ground level, at the moment, are changing very rapidly. PR rallies are not only well attended but they clearly demonstrate a partisan crowd, a clear support towards PR, a phenomenon that was not seen in 2008 or previous GEs. Perhaps, Johoreans love to take the lead in blowing the wind of change in this coming GE.

The moods and sentiments of the crowd in Johor, whether in Gelang Patah or Skudai, Batu Pahat or far away Pengerang, are very much consistent with the PR rally speakers. They are all shouting for ‘Ubah’ or ‘Ini Kalilah’.

Often, the spirited and eager crowd dictate the flow of the speech from the speakers, even jumping the gun, at times. Gone is their passive behaviour. The crowd in Johor are very vocal but firmly supportive and participative.

And they are not small in numbers either. The mixed crowd of Malays, Chinese and Indians seem very comfortable sitting or standing next to each other, listening to a mixed bag of PR politicians.

Obviously, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and former Johor MBs Muhyiddin Yassin and Abdul Ghani Othman have not been to any of these rallies. Otherwise, they would not have uttered those words and statements about racial frictions or possible riots between Chinese and Malays. "

"As an illustration on the approach and methodology adopted here, the seat of Gelang Patah is used and provided with all the details. There were a total of 78,676 voters in Gelang Patah in 2008.

The results of 2008 showed that BN won this seat by a majority of 8,851. But for this coming GE, there are 28,188 new voters giving a new total of 106,864 voters in this parliamentary constituency.

If it is assumed that the voters turn out for the new voters group is on the slightly higher side of the national average, which is about 75 per cent, then the additional number that would vote on 5th May would be about 22,550. Given that majority of the new voters would vote for PR, some estimates say about 70 per cent, while others claimed to be much higher (almost 80%), a ratio of new voters for each seat was calculated. However, a lower figure of 70% is adopted in here.

Therefore, out of the 22,550 new voters that would turn up to vote in Gelang Patah, the share for PR and BN (at 70:30 ratios) would be 16,912 and 6,765 respectively. This is indeed quite generous to PR but very consistent with the participating crowd commonly found at PR rallies almost throughout Johor.

Given that we assumed the 2008 voting pattern has not changed except in this particular case, a maximum 10% swing towards PR is allowed for in the calculation. Again, this assumption is due to the high profile of PR’s candidate, the response of the voters attending the rallies and on spot surveys and discussions.

In the case of Gelang Patah, BN would therefore obtain 30,370 (derived from 33,630 in 2008 minus 3,360, which represents 10% swing to PR), but plus 6,765 new voters, giving a grand total of 37,135 votes.

For PR, they are expected to obtain 28,139 (derived from 24,779 votes in 2008 plus a 10% swing votes of 3,360). Together with the new voters of 16,912, PR final tally would be about 45,000 votes. This means that for the seat of Gelang Patah, Sdr. Lim Kit Siang, will win with a majority of about 7,900 votes. This is the calculated prediction."

* Figures taken from The Malay Mail, April 30, 'Glimpse into the Past':Selangor: Pakatan % increased from 37.7% (2004) to 50.6% (2008);Penang: Pakatan % increased from 35.8% (2004) to 61.4% (2008);Perak: Pakatan % increased from 37.8% (2004) to 62.8% (2008);Kedah: Pakatan % increased from 40.7% (2004) to 56.2% (2008);Johor: Pakatan % increased from 22.5% (2004) to ? (2008?);(Believe it or not, this is the only state without 2008 %!)

Malaysia Boleh Perception Dictionary

Bangkok

Dubai

kosongcafe

LAW OF COFFEE: As soon as you sit down for a cup of hot coffee, your boss will ask you to do something which will last until the coffee is cold.

Acronym

I have to live with my acronym, Kosong (Malay for Zero). Had I started with just 1 before accumulating the 0, I would have been a millionaire!

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Batu Gajah KTMB Station

A Monument of Development at the expense of Convenience a.k.a. White Elephant (for the first few years when it was built before service commenced. Since then, the train service proves to be convenient. So users have no choice but to use it despite its inconvenient location. That's why KTM can ignore our request for a stop at the old station.

A reminder of my Petition

Symbolic of residents' appeal and KTMB's 'Kami Tidak Mahu Balas'. Note KTM responded on Jan 5, 2010 - awaiting a study on the suggestion. This notice shall remain until something is done. 5th Anniversary of No Action yet. Arrogance of a monopolistic entity?

Link List

“Always tell the truth. That way, you don't have to remember what you said.” - Mark Twain

"I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

Wisdom of a Retiree

WORRYING does not take away tomorrow's TROUBLES; it takes away today's PEACE. I've reached the age where the happy hour is a nap.

My Ong Badge...

Needs a Mansion to match

Wang

The Chinese character for king - 王- reveals a great deal about the nature of rulership: the three horizontal strokes represent heaven, humanity and earth, while the vertical stroke which holds the celestial, existential and terrestrial realms together and apart symbolizes the upright, honorable and noble qualities required to maintain balance and harmony on all levels. - Antares

Contributors

Be simple... it is not easy!

It’s easy to let your thoughts and worries complicate your life. But it takes great strength to be simple. - Monica Kupfer.

Politically correct, quotable quotes

"I am only one, But still I am one.I cannot do everything, But still I can do something;And because I cannot do everything I will not refuse to do the something that I can do." - Edward Everett Hale

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke

Honest disagreement is often a good sign of progress. - Mahatma Gandhi

You must be the change you want to see in the world. - Mahatma Gandhi

Think before you whine

Each day,before you say an unkind word - think of someone who can't speak;

before you complain about the taste of your food - think of someone who has nothing to eat;

before you complain about your husband or wife - think of someone who's crying out to GOD for a companion;

before whining about the distance you drive - think of someone who walks the same distance by foot;

and when you are tired and complain about your job - think of the unemployed, the disabled, and those who wish they had your job;

before you complain about life - think of someone who went too early to heaven;

and when depressing thoughts seem to get you down - put a smile on your face and think: I'm glad I'm still alive and can move around!

Advice on relationships:

"Remember not only to say the right thing in the right place but far more difficult still, to leave unsaid the wrong thing at the tempting moment" Benjamin Franklin

Sometimes, it is better to be kind than to be right.

Don’t let someone become a priority in your life, when you are just an option in his or her life.

Always be yourself because the people who matter don't mind, and the ones who mind, don't matter.

A true friend is someone who says nice things behind your back.

Forget about the people in your past...They didn't make it to your future for a reason.

To the world you may be just one person; but to one person you may be the world.

Cause of problems with Mother-in-law:

Every mother hopes that her daughter will marry a better man than she did, and is convinced that her son will never find a wife as good as his father did!

Acknowledgement

Contents were from various sources, and some originals had been edited. My blog serves to inform and hopefully, entertain as well. Please consider it an honour if any of your materials had been used and that it was interesting enough to be shared, for which I am thankful. I apologize if there is unintended infringement of any copyright and would readily remove any materials upon request.