Under the Weather: Changes afoot

This has been the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986. The few tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed didn’t get going until they steered north of the tropical latitudes.(Photo: National Hurricane Center)

Temperatures in Richland County this afternoon are expected to find their way into the upper 70s, but as of this writing there are a lot of clouds building in western Ohio and Indiana, slowly moving eastward. Those clouds are the leading edge of big changes coming in our weather.

Behind the clouds will come the rain, followed by a strong cold front, but those features should hold off until Friday. The bulk of the precipitation should fall from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m., so they could run into Friday night's football games, although chances are the rain will be done by then.

Forecasters are raising the flag for the possibility of severe weather with Friday's weather features, although that may be a stretch unless ground-level moisture really picks up over the next 24 hours or so.

The most dramatic headlines will come in the wake of Friday's frontal passage. Many locations on Saturday won't see temperatures climb out of the 40s, and with lots of clouds and stiff winds expected it will feel more like winter than fall. We should do better on Sunday, but even then our temperatures are expected to hold in the 50s.

There's talk of snow flying Saturday in the mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, as well as downwind of the Great Lakes up in Michigan. There's no mention of snow for anywhere in Ohio, but it's not hard to imagine some flakes finding their way to the surface courtesy of the Lake Erie lake-effect machine.

On the other hand, because of the abundant clouds and elevated winds, temperatures overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning probably won't fall far enough to lead to significant frost for most locations in Richland County.

While our temperatures are expected to climb back up by next week, a return to the 70s, even low 80s, of the past few days doesn't look to be in the cards for us. It is October now, after all.

Below are the weather statistics for Wednesday, Oct. 1 at my location 4 miles north-northwest of Fredericktown, Ohio:

Conditions – Partly cloudy and seasonal

High temperature – 67; low temperature – 40; (last year, 76 and 48)

Precipitation – none

High barometer – 30.05 inches; low barometer – 29.97 inches

Peak wind gust – 6 mph, northeast

High dew point – 56

Heating degree days – 11

Today's normal high and low temperatures (Mansfield) – 67 and 46

Today's record high and low temperatures (Mansfield) – 86 in 1927, 26 in 1947