Sunday, November 20, 2016

Who Should KC Protect in the Expansion Draft

The MLS playoffs kick back off this coming week after two weekends off, but for Kansas City the next thing their eyes are on is the expansion draft. The draft will take place on Tuesday, December 13th, welcoming Atlanta United and Minnesota United into the league. For me, this is a subject that I don't touch until Sporting KC is out of the playoffs, so now that KC's season is done, let's take a look.

The good news for Kansas City fans is that some of the rules regarding the expansion draft have changed since a couple years ago when New York City FC and Orlando City came into the league. Unlike that expansion draft, and everyone prior to this one, Atlanta and Minnesota will ech only have five picks, instead of the 10 teams have had in previous years. Along with that, Kansas City can only lose one player, with only 10 players being selected once a player is selected, that team cannot lose any more player.

As with prior years, Kansas City will be allowed to protect 11 players that cannot be selected in the expansion draft, those can be players that are currently under contract or not, if the player is out of contract it could be for Sporting to just retain the player's MLS rights. That part is a little less important now that Sporting has locked down Benny Feilhaber to a new contract.

To get things out of the way ahead of time, KC has four players that MLS currently acknowledge as homegrown players. Part of the draft rules are that all homegrown players are automatically protected and do not count against their 11 player count. Those four players, Kevin Ellis, Jon Kempin, Erik Palmer-Brown, and Daniel Salloi will all be automatically protected in the expansion draft.

With that out of the way, the question is who KC should protect, let's take a look at my thoughts.

First, players with no trade clauses have to be one of the protected players. Reports a few years ago were that when Matt Besler signed his designated player contract he also got himself a no trade clause in his contract. While he's not classified as a designated player any more, he's still technically under that contract, so I would assume that Besler still has his no trade clause, meaning he's on the list.

1. Matt Besler

After getting that out of the way I think you look at some of the key members of Sporting's team over the last couple seasons. With that I think you can add three more players to the list easily. First is the recently re-signed Benny Feilhaber, with his performance for KC, there's no reason at all that Kansas City would leave Feilhaber exposed. After him there's the team's second leading scorer all time, Dom Dwyer, like Feilhaber I just can't see a reasonable reason why Sporting would leave the Englishman exposed in the draft. Finally there's the club's captain, Roger Espinoza, one of the more underrated players in the league because he doesn't do a lot on the offensive side of the ball he does so much defensively in the midfield that he's another that has to be protected.

2. Benny Feilhaber
3. Dom Dwyer
4. Roger Espinoza

For the next three players you have look at international players. According to the expansion draft rules teams can only make available their number of internationals minus three. So teams will be required to protect at least three, unless they have three or fewer internationals. Kansas City has six internationals on their team, although one, Salloi, is already automatically protected due to his homegrown player status. The assumption is that he wouldn't be allowed to count as one of the three players KC has to protect. So of the five remaining internationals, Ever Alvarado, Nuno Coelho, Jimmy Medranda, Soni Mustivar, and Diego Rubio, KC have to protect at least three of them. I think the easiest of those three is Medranda who enjoyed a breakout year at left back and is still just 22 years old. Protecting Medranda makes complete sense. From there things get a little bit murkier as none of the other four internationals really were great this year. With Alvarado having spent almost his entire time with the club on loan to Swope Park, I think the chances he gets protected are very minimal. That leaves Coelho, Mustivar, and Rubio, for two more required protection spots for internationals. While Coelho was good early on for KC, his inability to stay healthy came back up over the second half of the season which hurt Kansas City, he's also the highest paid player of the three, with a base salary of $275,000. While Atlanta and Minnesota do have the ability to renegotiate with any player they select, the price tag of the player is certainly something the teams will look at, and in this case with Coelho I think keeping him exposed wouldn't be that big of a risk. That means by process of elimination, Mustivar and Rubio become the other two protected foreign players.

5. Jimmy Medranda
6. Soni Mustivar
7. Diego Rubio

With seven players selected and another four automatically protected, that leaves 17 players left and only four spots left. From here part of the process becomes players that the club can expose and not have any worry about losing, or have no interest in the player returning. For example, Brad Davis has announced his retirement from soccer, so keeping him on the protected list is fairly worthless for KC. Elsewhere, I think Bernardo Anor's time in KC can also be classified as being done, having spent 2016 with Minnesota in the NASL, the hope for KC had to be that he'd impress and KC could work out a trade with the expansion side that would include a handshake deal to not take any Sporting players in the draft. Unfortunately Anor didn't have a very good season, and missed most of the fall season with an injury. I am not sure we're going to see a trade there, and I don't see KC protecting him. Then there's the disaster of the league's first free agent signing, Justin Mapp, making six appearances totally only 43 minutes. Protecting him would possibly be the most surprising move ever if it were to happen, and probably something that many fans would call a fireable offense for Peter Vermes if he were to do it.

Other players that aren't going to be protected are those end of the roster players who are likely not going to be back with the team next year due to new signings and drafted players coming in. They may be invited to preseason next year but they'll have to earn their spots again. Players like Emmanuel Appiah, Connor Hallisey, Benji Joya, Alec Kann, Lawrence Olum, and Cameron Porter may be back with Kansas City next year, but I can't see them being protected come expansion draft time.

So with those players off the list you're left with eight players for the final four spots; Saad Abdul-Salaam, Tim Melia, Chance Myers, Paulo Nagamura, Ike Opara, Jacob Peterson, Seth Sinovic, and Graham Zusi. I think Abdul-Salaam has established himself as the starter at right back now for Kansas City, through his play and through Myers' injury issues starting to come back I think Abdul-Salaam is one of those final four players, and at the same time I don't think you protect Myers, who made $200,000 last season if you're going to protect Abdul-Salaam. KC has stuck with Myers through his injury issues early in his career, but SAS looks to have pasted him now.

8. Saad Abdul-Salaam

With the final six I think there are two more names that fall into a similar category of aging and injuries, those are Nagamura and Sinovic. Nagamura has stepped up big for KC the last two years late in the season when KC has needed him, but that's been in part because he's played almost no part in the early half of the season. Getting half a season out of a player making over $200,000 and is 33 isn't someone that I see Kansas City protecting, nor really someone that I think will be taken. Sinovic is an interesting case because he displaced Medranda late in the season when the Colombian was suspended and never gave up his spot. Sinovic is also relatively inexpensive, making just over $100,000, but he like Nagamura and Myers struggled with injuries, then there was Sinovic threatening retirement back in the 2011 expansion draft after he was selected by the Montreal Impact. I think that's something that will likely turn off both Minnesota and Atlanta from selecting the KC natvie.

So we're now down to Melia, Opara, Peterson, and Zusi for the final three spots. And with those three left I think we can cut that list down one more to get our number. While Peterson had a career year and was a good weapon for Kansas City, the wing that was Peterson's starting position for a good portion of the year has to be looked upon as being the key upgrade position for Kansas City over the winter. While Peterson would be a good option off the bench, he's another one of those who could probably be replaced with another veteran. At the same time he'd probably be someone that would interest both Atlanta and Minnesota as a veteran presence and a team player. That said I am not sure at 32 next season if he's someone KC would use a spot on.

2 comments:

Good post Mike. Almost exactly matches my list (but I'm a Zusi hater -- mostly for his $700K salary and production that doesn't match). I believe Kevin Ellis isn't automatically protected anymore. That same link has him listed as "inactive." I kind of wonder if Kempin isn't "inactive" as well since he's on his 2nd MLS contract.