Hope and caution on Iran

Friday

Sep 27, 2013 at 12:01 AM

Iranian President Hasan Rouhani has stepped up his charm offensive during his visit this week to the United States, asserting in a CNN interview that he condemned the Holocaust and that Americans are “very dear and near to the hearts of the Iranian people.”

Rouhani’s comments and his address earlier in the week before the U.N. General Assembly drew a stark contrast with his bombastic predecessor, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had a unique ability to send Israeli and Western delegations storming out of United Nations over his anti-semitic and anti-Western rhetoric.

Rouhani’s seeming moderation and conciliatory gestures have ratcheted up expectations that the United States and Iran can overcome decades of hostility and reach an agreement limiting an Iranian nuclear program that threatens regional stability and Israeli security. President Obama responded by stating his willingness to test “the diplomatic path” with Iran during his address to the General Assembly, and Secretary of State John Kerry met Thursday with Iranian foreign minister Javed Zarif — the highest level meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in years.

But Obama also expressed caution on Iran, noting that decades of deep animosity and distrust between the United States and Iran cannot easily or quickly be overcome.

Such caution is well advised. It’s clear that Iran wants the United States and its allies to end the sanctions that have brought its economy to its knees, driving the value of its currency to historic lows and turning Iran into a pariah in the global financial community. But it’s unclear yet what Rouhani — and more importantly, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — are willing to do in return.

Will they, for example, be willing to reach a nuclear deal that would provide the United States and international community with irrefutable evidence that Iran has abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons and does not have the equipment or materials necessary to produce those weapons?

That’s a huge step, one that presumably would require Iran to accept intrusive international inspections and put its current inventory of enriched uranium under international supervision. It might also require Iran to decommission Fordo, its most sophisticated nuclear plant. The facility is particularly worrisome to the United States and other countries because of its capacity to produce high-grade uranium and its deep underground location that protects it from attack by air.

Iran has made some impressive gestures in recent weeks. In addition to Rouhani’s visit to the U.N, Iran’s leadership has tweeted Rosh Hashana greetings to Jews throughout the world, freed political prisoners, exchanged letters with the Obama administration and said it is willing to engage in open talks with the United States and the international community on its nuclear program.

But there is abundant reason for skepticism. Rouhani is hardly a free agent; he rose to the presidency only after — and by virtue of — years of unquestioning loyalty to Khamenei, who holds ultimate power under Iran’s theocratic system of government. Within hours after Rouhani’s acknowledgment and condemnation of the Holocaust, the official Iranian news agency accused CNN of fabricating portions of the interview — a possible sign of Khamenei’s influence. Meanwhile, any nuclear deal negotiated by Rouhani would have to be approved by Khamenei, and it’s unclear whether the ayatollah is willing to enter into an agreement that would require major concessions, including the abandonment of Iran’s longtime quest to obtain nuclear weapons.

Obama is right to express hope for a “different relationship” with Iran, one that the president says should be “based on mutual interests and mutual respect.” But he’s also right not to mistake Rouhani’s conciliatory tone for real change.

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