For four years, from 2008 through 2011, Russia was a
“tandemocracy,” ruled by Medvedev as president and Putin as
prime minister. The two traded jobs after the irregularity-laden
presidential election of 2012, a move that came as a blow to
Medvedev’s supporters, who saw him as a worldly modernizer and
had hoped he would run for a second term.

Now, conspiracy theorists in Moscow think Putin might be
tiring of the tandem and content to rule alone. His actions, as
well as leaks from the Kremlin, suggest mounting dissatisfaction
with Medvedev’s team. And veterans of Putin’s cabinets, in a
break from tradition, are showing no qualms about publicly
criticizing ministers.

Some of the first evidence of dissatisfaction came in
September, when Putin reprimanded three ministers in Medvedev’s
government -- those of labor, education and regional development
-- for failing to implement some of the president’s election
promises. Regional Development Minister Oleg Govorun was forced
to resign. Later, Putin fired Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov
as part of a wide-ranging corruption probe.

Earlier this month, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia
reported that the Kremlin was working on an efficiency
assessment system for government ministers, and asked unnamed
Kremlin officials to rank ministers in order of efficiency. Most
received a grade of fair or poor. Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, new Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov were among those deemed excellent.

Medvedev reacted angrily, even though it was just a
newspaper story quoting unnamed sources. “Medvedev believes only
the president has the right to assess the efficiency of
individual government members,” his press secretary said.

The Kremlin was unrepentant. “The published results of a
poll of some administration members are subjective,” Putin’s
press secretary told the Interfax news agency. “There is, as
yet, no official evaluation system for ministers, but it is in
fact being designed.”

Commentators assumed the Izvestia piece was no accident. “I
believe this was a leak intended to influence the situation,”
pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markovtold the website
actualcomments.ru. “The publication of such rankings is a sign
of future personnel changes.”

On Jan. 18, two veteran insiders -- both of whom served in
the government when Putin was prime minister -- voiced harsh
criticism of current cabinet members at an economic forum in
Moscow. Ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin voiced doubt that the
current cabinet’s policy is conducive to economic growth, and
former economics minister German Gref accused ministers of “not
having spent even an hour” studying the rules of the World Trade
Organization, which Russia has recently joined.

Even the parliament, a notorious rubber stamp for the
Kremlin’s legislative proposals, “has started ignoring the
government’s comments on bills,” the influential daily Vedomosti
wrote in an editorial. “Such an attitude toward the government
could mean either of two things: that everyone knows the
cabinet’s days are numbered, or that everyone is aware this is a
scapegoat cabinet.”

In a more transparent political system, all the speculation
might be discounted as noise generated in overly sensitive
newsrooms. But after 13 years of Putin in power, experienced
insiders are skilled at interpreting the signals.

One of the most experienced, former intelligence chief and
ex-prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, said bluntly earlier this
month that the system of dual power was dead. “In practical and
legal terms, there is only one head of state in Russia, Putin,”
Interfax quoted him as saying at the exclusive Mercury Club.
“The prospect of obligatory rotation of the two leaders has
ceased to exist, and that should help make the country more
democratic.”

In other words, Medvedev’s tenure as prime minister is not
necessarily drawing to a close, but he is no longer the only
credible successor to Putin if and when the president does relax
his grip on power.

On the surface, Primakov’s suggestion of “more democracy”
seems counterintuitive. Hadn’t the wily old politician just said
that Putin was now alone at the summit? Yet there is a certain
logic to Primakov’s pronouncement: Putin’s presidential term
ends in five years, and if the succession contest is already
open, the political system may indeed become more competitive,
albeit in a peculiarly Russian way.

(Leonid Bershidsky, an editor and novelist, is Moscow and Kiev
correspondent for World View. Opinions expressed are his own.)