Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the ℳM-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation literature and generalize to the combination of predictive distributions. We extend the utility function to any proper scoring rule and use Pareto smoothed importance sampling to efficiently compute the required leave-one-out posterior distributions. We compare stacking of predictive distributions to several alternatives: stacking of means, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Pseudo-BMA, and a variant of Pseudo-BMA that is stabilized using the Bayesian bootstrap. Based on simulations and real-data applications, we recommend stacking of predictive distributions, with bootstrapped-Pseudo-BMA as an approximate alternative when computation cost is an issue.

What I was seeing was an announcement for a show by Jason Shulman at Cob Gallery called Photographs of Films. The press and interviews collected on the gallery’s website lauded a conceptual beauty and rigor in his work, but the only thing I could see was a rip-off. “Email for price list.” These images were unmistakably similar to the distinctive work I had been producing for years, and it was not long before friends started writing to let me know.

"Signal averaging is the process that consists in computing a mean shape from a set of noisy signals. In the presence of geometric variability in time in the data, the usual Euclidean mean of the raw data yields a mean pattern that does not reflect the typical shape of the observed signals. In this setting, it is necessary to use alignment techniques for a precise synchronization of the signals, and then to average the aligned data to obtain a consistent mean shape. In this paper, we study the numerical performances of Fr\'echet means of curves which are extensions of the usual Euclidean mean to spaces endowed with non-Euclidean metrics. This yields a new algorithm for signal averaging without a reference template. We apply this approach to the estimation of a mean heart cycle from ECG records."