Tuesday, April 10, 2018

"Is $8 Corn A Possibility?"

Maybe.
Though the odds for it happening are probably better in 2019 or 2020 but it could happen this year. We saw such prints in both 2011 and 2012; 2008 got close.
Here are a couple decades of futures price history from FinViz:

3.8975 last so it would be a big move.

Two posts from AgWeb. First up, the headline story April 9

While most of the market attention has been on the possibility for increased soybean price volatility because of the Chinese tariffs, analysts agree corn could move higher over the next couple of years. One analyst thinks it could even reach $8 per bu., a level not seen since 2012.

What would it take for corn to return to its glory days after living at $3 per bu.? According to this story from Barron’s, declining output, an ethanol led demand surge in China and the potential for brutal weather could be the recipe for a price surge.

“Eight dollars is very possible,” says Shawn Hackett, author of the Hackett Money Flow Reportnewsletter in this story, adding that declining supplies will run headlong into increased Chinese demand.:...MORE

And April 10's "Corn Belt Could Freeze as Late as June":

With cold temperatures lingering longer than many farmers prefer, you might wonder just how late a freeze could hit. Historically, the Corn Belt has seen some, but not many, freezes after June 1. Most late freezes occur in the May time frame. Take a look at the map below for your area.

What to expect if late freezes hit corn and soybean seedlings.
First and foremost, wait three to five days before checking corn and soybeans for freeze or frost injury. This gives the plants time to bounce back so you can determine the actual level of damage.

“At young developmental stages, a soybean plant is more susceptible than corn to aboveground damage by frost or lethal cold temperatures because its growing points are exposed above ground as soon as the crop emerges,” according to a report from Bob Nielsen and Ellsworth Christmas at Purdue University. “Frost or freeze damage extending below the cotyledons translates to complete death of the seedling.”...MORE