Deadly Ebola virus could reach Britain in THREE WEEKS say scientists

THE deadly Ebola virus could hit British shores within three weeks, scientists warned last night.

Scientists claim there's a 50 per cent chance Ebola could hit the UK by October 24 [AFP/GETTY]

Experts have analysed the pattern of the spread of the disease, along with airline traffic data, to make the startling prediction Ebola could reach Britain by October 24.

They claim there is a 50 percent chance the virus could hit Britain by that date and a 75 per cent chance the it could be imported to France, as the deadliest outbreak in history spreads across the world.

Currently, there is no cure for the disease, which has claimed more than 3,400 lives since March and has a 90 per cent fatality rate.

"If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe."

The deadly epidemic has now started to spread even faster, infecting almost 7,200 people to date.

The World health Organisation are yet to put any restrictions on travel [AFP/GETTY]

This is not a deterministic list, it's about probabilities - but those probabilities are growing for everyone

Professor Alex Vespignani

Nigeria, Senegal and now the United States - where the first case was diagnosed last week in a man who flew in from Liberia - have all seen people carrying the Ebola virus arrive on their shores.

France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - are French-speaking and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow is one of the world's biggest travel hubs.

France and Britain have each treated one national who was brought home with the disease and then cured. The scientists' study suggests that more may bring it to Europe not knowing they are infected.

Even assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect the fact many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent.

Across Europe, Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has not placed any restrictions on travel.

But the risks change every day the epidemic continues, said Professor Alex Vespignani, at the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems at Northeastern University in Boston who led the research.

"This is not a deterministic list, it's about probabilities - but those probabilities are growing for everyone," he said yesterday.

"It's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky.

"Air traffic is the driver, but there are also differences in connections with the affected countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as different numbers of cases in these three countries - so depending on that, the probability numbers change."

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Patients are at their most contagious when Ebola is in its terminal stages, inducing both internal and external bleeding, and profuse vomiting and diarrhoea - all of which contain high concentrations of infectious virus.

But the disease can also have a long incubation period of up to 21 days, meaning that people can be unaware for weeks that they are infected, and not feel or display any symptoms.

In the European Union, free movement of people means someone unknowingly infected with Ebola could easily drive through several neighbouring countries before feeling ill and seeking help, and spend weeks in contact with friends or strangers before becoming sick enough to show up on airport scanners.

Jonathan Ball, a professor of molecular virology at Nottingham University said that even with exit screening at airports of affected countries, the long, silent incubation period meant "cases can slip through the net".

"Whilst the risk of imported Ebola virus remains small, it's still a very real risk, and one that won't go away until this outbreak is stopped," he said. "Ebola virus isn't just an African problem."