NFL Draft: Aaron Curry -- one certainty in uncertain top 10

Thursday

Apr 23, 2009 at 12:01 AMApr 23, 2009 at 10:21 PM

With only days remaining before the draft, one NFL executive described this year’s draft as the most unpredictable he can remember being a part of. The frequency of calls is escalating between teams as pre-Draft Day trade scenarios are being explored. Much remains uncertain, including who will be picking in the top 10, with more talk increasing at the back end of the top 10.

Nolan Nawrocki

With only days remaining before the draft, one NFL executive described this year’s draft as the most unpredictable he can remember being a part of. The frequency of calls is escalating between teams as pre-Draft Day trade scenarios are being explored. Much remains uncertain, including who will be picking in the top 10, with more talk increasing at the back end of the top 10.

What has become increasingly clear, in a weak draft not featuring elite talent, however, is that NFL decision-makers will have a tendency to play it safe.

“You got four first-time GMs drafting in the top five,” a longtime executive said. “The last thing you want to do is take too much risk and bust on your first pick. I think we’ll see some surprises because (teams drafting in the top five) are going to be stuck, unable to trade out, and happy to hit a double. The one thing you don’t want to do is swing for the fences and strike out.”

The premium likely to be placed on safe drafting bodes extremely well for Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry, who, the way we hear it, will not escape the top five. Last year’s fifth overall pick, Glenn Dorsey, signed a five-year, $51 million contract with $23 million guaranteed. Based on the franchise salary tags, the QB position is the NFL’s highest-paid, with a $14.65 million tag, followed by cornerback ($9.96M), wide receiver ($9.88M), defensive end ($8.99M) and offensive line ($8.45M). The LB position falls sixth in line, which in recent years, has made it difficult for teams to justify drafting a linebacker very high.

Giving a linebacker a six-year, $72 million contract with $34 million guaranteed could be a big pill to swallow for Chiefs GM Scott Pioli, who will be picking third. Of course, a premium is always placed on the QB position, and Curry will not warrant the same deal that the 2008 third overall pick, Falcons QB Matt Ryan, did a year ago given his position.

Part of the reason that Seattle dealt OLB Julian Peterson to the Lions, team sources say, is because the franchise tag placed on OLB Leroy Hill was going to force the Seahawks to have far too much money invested in linebackers, making the selection of Curry more problematic from a fiscally responsible perspective. Yet with a defensive-minded head coach (Jim Mora) taking charge, a physically intimidating linebacker who can re-establish more of a smashmouth identity has appealed strongly to the coaching staff.

The Browns, who attempted to trade up into the top five three years ago to land LB A.J. Hawk but could not find a willing trade partner, still lack elite LB talent and place a premium on intelligence at the ILB position that Curry is projected to play in a “30” front, given the great demands of Eric Mangini’s complicated defense, which changes radically from week to week. Debate remains in the NFL scouting community regarding how well Curry will fit into a “30” front, but given Curry’s overall skill set, he is not expected to slip past the Browns.

Draft Audibles

“We like (Mississippi DT) Peria Jerry better than (Boston College DT) B.J. Raji. (Jerry) plays so hard all the time. He leaves everything on the field. You know what you are getting. … If you are going to draft a two-down player, he better be a dominant ass-kicker. You better be getting Vince Wilfork or Jamal Williams — and look where those guys were drafted. Show me one game where those guys were put on their back like Raji is. All nose tackles get blocked, but how many get knocked on their ass and flat-backed two to three times a game? How many of those guys have a happy-go-lucky personality and are always smiling? The best defensive linemen I’ve seen were ornery — they did not want to talk to anyone.”

“Some genius is going to get enthralled with (Purdue DT) Alex Magee’s workout numbers, but you show me the tape where he plays to them. He plays every other snap. He’s not a worker. He’s got a bad back. He’s got ‘bust’ written all over him.”

“(Ole Miss OT) Michael Oher is too stiff, too top-heavy and too much of a waist bender for a player who everyone is describing as a great athlete.”

“Don’t forget — Raheem Morris coached (QB) Josh Freeman at Kansas State for a year. He is familiar with him. (Tampa Bay) came close a few times to pulling off a trade for (Jay) Cutler. They signed (Byron) Leftwich, but if a quarterback falls to them, I can’t see them passing.”

“(Ohio State WR Brian) Robiskie is a third-round talent. Now where he goes, it could be much sooner. But you can’t show me the tape where he plays like a first-rounder. He’s not quick enough. He does not separate.”

“(Seahawks GM) Tim (Ruskell) and (vice president of player personnel) Ruston (Webster) were not at Mark Sanchez’s workout. Maybe they have seen him enough on the West Coast. Maybe they don’t want to play their hand. But they have spent a lot of time visiting the top quarterbacks. It’s an expensive smokescreen if that’s what it is.”

“Some guys need to go away to college to have success — there is too much dragging them down if they stay at home. (Rutgers WR) Kenny Britt is one of those guys. Trouble was too quick to find him when he returned to his old neighborhood, but if you can keep him in the building, he can be controlled. The worst place he could go is somewhere close to home. … I’d be more interested in him if we were on the West Coast where he could start fresh.”

For more than 40 years, Pro Football Weekly has been the authority on the NFL. Be sure to visit www.ProFootballWeekly.com for up-to-date draft-related analysis, including mock drafts, player rankings and scouting reports, and our signature “Way We Hear It” insider information.

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