Oct 31, 2012

Following Guarani's defeat yesterday, at home against Libertad, the championship is pretty much open once again, and for sure the challengers Nacional and Olimpia would want to take advantage of this misstep of the leaders. With a win today, Nacional will get 6 points behind Guarani, and would get their hopes back up. And they are a solid team, especially when it comes to playing some of the lower teams. As proof, in their last 10 games, they have failed to win just 4, against top class opponents: lost against Libertad, Olimpia and Guarani, and drew with Cerro Porteno. So they only failed to win against the giants of the league. Today, a full squad is expected to take the field, and they should be considered high favorites against an irregular Cerro PF. They've had some good results, like the 1-0 win against Guarani, or the 2-2 draws against Olimpia and at Cerro Porteno, but all the merits from these matches have been wasted with a home defeat against Sol de America, or a 1-2 defeat at rock-bottom Independiente. So they mix results and performances, making them a team that can't be trusted. Quality-wise, Nacional should be much better, and I think there is some value in these odds. Home win is expected. GL!

As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!