Chart Of The Week: The Dreaded Full Frown

I’m going to break my personal convention and use the bulk of the colors in the eurodollar futures spectrum, not just the single EDM’s (June) contained within each. The current front month is January 2019, and its quoted price as I write this is 97.2475. The EDH (March) 2019 contract trades at 97.29 currently and it will drop off the board on March 18.

Three-month LIBOR was fixed yesterday at a fraction higher than 2.80%, meaning that if it stays around or above that level someone is losing money on it. The futures price isn’t directly translatable but back-of-the-envelope it works out to an expectation for 3-month LIBOR on that date in March to be less than what it is fixed now.

In other words, the market is seriously betting LIBOR is coming down not two years from now but in the short run. That expectation only grows the further out in time (down the curve).

Inversion, as noted earlier today, had been limited to more distant years centered around 2020. The eurodollar curve now sports inversion from the front month all the way out to September 2020. This is not a curve, not a normal one anyway, it is a clear signal of trouble right in front of us.

In fact, almost the entire curve is currently below yesterday’s 3-month LIBOR. But strong economy or something. They really don’t know what they are doing. Central banks are not central.

Happy New Year Jay Powell, the curve sarcastically frowns upon your ridiculously over-optimistic forecasts. From here on, you are going to want to avoid taking any advice from Bill Dudley on the topic of eurodollar futures and inversions.

Disclaimer: All data and information provided on this site is strictly the author’s opinion and does not constitute any financial, legal or other type of advice. GradMoney, nor Jennifer N. ...

Disclaimer: All data and information provided on this site is strictly the author’s opinion and does not constitute any financial, legal or other type of advice. GradMoney, nor Jennifer N. Coombs, makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses or damages arising from its display or use. We also do not make any personal investments on behalf of readers, nor do we offer specific trading recommendations to readers. GradMoney is not a licensed broker dealer. All investment actions as a result of GradMoney’s articles are to be made at the discretion of the individual investor. All investments contain risks; GradMoney assumes no liability for any loss of income or principal.

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.
Jeff ...
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As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.
Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process.

In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance.

As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion. In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection.

In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as Head of Global Investment Research.

Currently, Jeff is published nationally at TalkMarkets, RealClearMarkets, ZeroHedge, Minyanville and Yahoo!Finance.