Thursday, July 31, 2008

Yankees - Acquired Pudge

New York Yankees - Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez from the Detroit Tigers for P Kyle Farnsworth and, perhaps, the return of incriminating photos of GM Dave Dombrowski with either a dead girl or a live boy.

Does anyone see exactly what the Tigers are getting out of this? It’s not a move to win now and it’s not a move to win later. They pick up a $13 million option after Rodriguez’s worst season in 15 years but getting a middling reliever with a knack for allowing a huge home run at the wackiest times is what makes them part ways?

The Yankees, of course, upgrade from Jose Molina to a guy having a better-than-average season for a guy they don’t really want. I’ve got a funky pair of shoes in the laundry room, what’s Dombrowski’s offer?

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How much of a collapse risk is Rodriguez, and just how good a fielder is he at this point? A catcher who can play good defense and hit for a pretty decent average is still worth a fair amount of money, I think - starting quality at least, even with the low OBP.

I-Rod is no great shakes any more, but as a league-average-hitting catcher he's a big upgrade on Molina (I think I might be a big upgrade on Molina).

And, so much for the "Jose Molina is the greatest baseball player who ever lived because he has a good arm and blocks and frames pitches well" claptrap that the New York media was trying to sell. The Yankees just couldn't live with Molina starting, and Cashman knew it.

And, so much for the "Jose Molina is the greatest baseball player who ever lived because he has a good arm and blocks and frames pitches well" claptrap that the New York media was trying to sell. The Yankees just couldn't live with Molina starting, and Cashman knew it.

I didn't see anyone saying that he was even average with the bat, but I don't think that there's any disagreement that his defensive skills are upper-tier. I think he's a very good backup catcher, and I still think that he was the best Posada backup in the last ten years in the occasion that he had to step in for an extended period.

I think the unexpected problems the Yankees have offensively make the upgrade necessary, as you say in your last sentence. I think that if the lineup was able to produce the way most thought they would coming out of the spring, they could carry Molina.

I accept that Molina's defensive skills are good (well, at least his arm). He's ok as a backup because he can come in late in close games, and maybe he flukes into a high enough batting average given limited playing time. But he's exposed as a starter.

With Jorge Posada done for the year, the Yankees were looking at 60-odd games of Jose Molina, which is more than they could stomach.

And this is kind of funny:

Farnsworth's resurgence has come with newfound life on his fastball, and he enters a Detroit bullpen in desperate need of help, with Todd Jones' smoke-and-mirrors act reduced to smoldering ember and a shard of glass and Joel Zumaya unable to hit the broad side of a barn.

Looks like I'm not the only one who noticed (#10) that there was some odd obsession with pretending Jose Molina's defense made him an adequate starter.

Christina Kahrl of BP:

There was perhaps no better solution to the team's catching problem than to go get the most famous player at the position. He's still a nimble backstop who can virtually intimidate the running game out of existence, which is exactly the quality to silence the lunatic fringe of Jose Molina fandom by replacing their pony with someone who brings that same virtue to the table while also having utility in all the other things that involve playing baseball.

The bonus to the trade from the Yankee perspective is that they get to leverage the Marte/Veras/Ramirez innings properly without having to deal with hurt feelings and sub-optimal performance from Farnsworth. You couldn't have planned the Nady/Marte and Rodriguez trades better if you were playing Strat-a-matic with the BBWAA voters!

So now the Yankees are going to have to rebuild that eighth-inning bridge again, and as much as Girardi and Eiland have proven themselves in this area, they'll have no one with the sort of tools that Farnsworth possessed. Maybe someone among the mix of Damaso Marte, Edwar Ramirez, David Robertson and Jose Veras will step up.

my just about any measurement, Veras and Ramirez are having better seasons than Farnsy - similar BB/9, but better K/9, fewers hits, better ERA and ERA+ - but they don't have the TOOLS.

Looks like I'm not the only one who noticed (#10) that there was some odd obsession with pretending Jose Molina's defense made him an adequate starter.

You realize that most, if not all, metrics show Molina as an average catcher because of his defense right? Bpro has Molina at 10.6 Runs below average at the plate for a catcher. I don't see why it's beyond belief that a catcher having the kind of defensive season he's having can't get back 8-10 runs on defense.

Looks like I'm not the only one who noticed (#10) that there was some odd obsession with pretending Jose Molina's defense made him an adequate starter.

The same thing has been going on in Milwaukee regarding Kendall. It's bizarre, I wonder if people can actually believe that any offense from a catcher is "gravy". Anyway, Kendall has been made out to be I-Rod-in-his-prime behind the plate by the Brewers announcers and most fans. In addition, every game the announcers spend what feels like hours raving about how much time he spends in meetings with the pitchers (don't all catchers do that) and how great a game he calls. It's ####### annoying, so I empathize with Yankees fans who were distressed at the prospect of Jose Molina starting regularly down the stretch.

-- save a couple million dollars this year
-- get a viable closer candidate (for all his shortcomings, he's better than their current options)
-- likely end up with a compensation pick for Farnsworth (probably a Type B, qualifying for a sandwich pick if they offer him arbitration and he walks)

They weren't going to offer Pudge arbitration, especially since they can only offer a 20% pay cut ($10.6M) for next season. At least now they have a chance to get a comp pick.

I'm very much in the minority, but I like the deal for Detroit as well as the Yankees.

wait, why could they only offer him a 20% cut? he's a free agent player, not someone in their arb years. he's not going to get 10 million in arbitration and someone is going to offer him a better multi-year deal to start.

I'm very much in the minority, but I like the deal for Detroit as well as the Yankees.

Farnsworth's made much of the fact that Girardi placed him in a well-defined and stable role within the Yankee bullpen, and wasn't going to vary it because of a few bad outings. This seemed to boost his confidence, and his game, quite a bit, and in fact he's been terrific for the last couple of months. I'm pretty sure that his success with the Tigers will depend in great part on Leyland's quickly establing a similar set of conditions for him in Detroit.

But he's still the same Farnsworth. He's one of the hardest throwers in the game, but everything depends on his command on any given day. When he gets out over the middle of the plate, it ain't pretty.

wait, why could they only offer him a 20% cut? he's a free agent player, not someone in their arb years. he's not going to get 10 million in arbitration and someone is going to offer him a better multi-year deal to start.

Isn't it annoying that someone says that in every thread where arbitration comes up?

my just about any measurement, Veras and Ramirez are having better seasons than Farnsy - similar BB/9, but better K/9, fewers hits, better ERA and ERA+ - but they don't have the TOOLS.

I know people are eager to bash the idea of tools but this simply isn't true at all. Veras' tools, from what I remember from 2 years ago, are very similar to Farnsworth.. which means hes got a mid-90s fastball and not a whole lot more.
The argument against Veras is actually more statistical... he has an inconsistent track record.

As for Edwar, tools-wise his change grades out as plus or plus-plus and his recent track record has been super, but he has come out of nowhere the last couple years.

btw, why is everyone calling him I-Rod? Was there some consensus that you can't call him Pudge?

I've always called him IRod, because to me Pudge = Carlton Fisk...

You realize that most, if not all, metrics show Molina as an average catcher because of his defense right? Bpro has Molina at 10.6 Runs below average at the plate for a catcher. I don't see why it's beyond belief that a catcher having the kind of defensive season he's having can't get back 8-10 runs on defense.

For the season (as opposed to "all time") they have him at 13 batting runs below the average catcher- in just 218 PAs. What's that, 30 runs below if given 500 PAs- can he get that back on defense?

wait, why could they only offer him a 20% cut? he's a free agent player, not someone in their arb years. he's not going to get 10 million in arbitration and someone is going to offer him a better multi-year deal to start.

If I'm not mistaken, the only way a team can get compensation picks is if they offer the player salary arbitration. A player with more than 6 years of major-league service (like Pudge) is not required to accept arbitration; he can decline it. But a team takes the risk that the player will accept arbitration, which binds the team to sign that player at the salary determined by the arbitrator.

In the arbitration process, each party (the team and the player) submits an offer, and the arbitrator chooses one or the other. Under the collective bargaining agreement - again, unless I'm mistaken - the team cannot make an offer that cuts the player's last year's salary by more than 20%. So Pudge made $13M that year - his team can only cut him $2.4M, down to $10.6M for 2009.

In the arbitration process, each party (the team and the player) submits an offer, and the arbitrator chooses one or the other. Under the collective bargaining agreement - again, unless I'm mistaken - the team cannot make an offer that cuts the player's last year's salary by more than 20%. So Pudge made $13M that year - his team can only cut him $2.4M, down to $10.6M for 2009.

No. The 20% rule is only for pre-FA players. Once they're free-agents the team can offer them any salary they want.

You realize that most, if not all, metrics show Molina as an average catcher because of his defense right? Bpro has Molina at 10.6 Runs below average at the plate for a catcher. I don't see why it's beyond belief that a catcher having the kind of defensive season he's having can't get back 8-10 runs on defense.

Dial's, WARP, those are the only two I can think of other than Win Shares. I don't like the last two, I'd count them as close to useless, but WARP's defensive value for Molina is about the same as Dial's, so I think it's probably not that far off from being based in reality.

No. The 20% rule is only for pre-FA players. Once they're free-agents the team can offer them any salary they want.

I think you may be right on that, actually - my apologies for confusing that. That said, the Tigers would have had to make some sort of arbitration offer, and if Pudge agrees to arbitration at that point, he gets to make a counteroffer. The arbitrator then chooses one figure or the other. So if the Tigers' arbitration offer was too low, they'd run a substantial risk of getting stuck with Pudge at his requested dollar amount.

Usually what happens is if the team wants to try to re-sign the player at a substantial pay cut, they'll agree to offer arbitration on the condition that the player decline it. That way the team is protected - if the player finds a better offer elsewhere, the original team gets the comp picks if the player signs elsewhere by the cutoff date. It's entirely possible that Pudge said he'd accept their offer, in which case the deal makes sense for Detroit.

The arbitrator then chooses one figure or the other. So if the Tigers' arbitration offer was too low, they'd run a substantial risk of getting stuck with Pudge at his requested dollar amount.

right, but what's the chance Pudge is going to accept even a moderate 1 year deal to be a miserable backup in DET, when he's going to command at least a 2 year deal (worth more, at least overall) to start somewhere?

i just see DET offering pudge arbitration as a very, very low order of risk sort of decision.

That said, the Tigers would have had to make some sort of arbitration offer, and if Pudge agrees to arbitration at that point, he gets to make a counteroffer. The arbitrator then chooses one figure or the other. So if the Tigers' arbitration offer was too low, they'd run a substantial risk of getting stuck with Pudge at his requested dollar amount.

Correct. They couldn't realistically cut him to say $4M, b/c I-Rod would counter with $10M and he would win.
But, they could probably offer $8M.

I-Rod's very unlikely to accept arb anywhere he'll be a backup. He wants the games caught record, and is still a better than average starting catcher. If Posada's recovery is looking good in Dec., the Yanks will offer arb, and he'll decline, assuming he hasn't signed elsewhere already.

hey, larry, did you email peteyabe about his guess that the yankees won't offer pudge arbitration because they "don't want to give him a raise" over his $13 million 2008 salary? i had the same reaction you did to that, though i didn't follow through on the research. thanks for finding the comps on that.

i love petey for his reporting, but his knowledge of the fine workings of the process and his addled belief in his own scouting abilities sure don't work in his favor. it's funny to see how hard he's trying to acknowledge how good edwar has been this year, while still avoiding having to admit flat-out how wrong his assessment of him was ...

I-Rod's very unlikely to accept arb anywhere he'll be a backup. He wants the games caught record

He's also got a fair shot at 3000 hits. He's 416 shy right now, so let's say its 375 at the end of the season. If he hits .275 for the remainder of his career, he'll need 1364 more at bats. That's 3.5 seasons at 400 at bats per year.

Unlikely, but not out of the range of possibility. He's also within a year or so of reaching the 300 HR milestone.