GOP Opponents Say Now It’s Rudy’s Turn

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has entered the presidential race with a head of steam, thanks to a remarkably positive public image among most Americans due to his performance in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

But his opponents say Giuliani will eventually be weighed down as GOP voters take a more comprehensive look at his record and character – and operatives for rival campaigns are making plans to give Giuliani a proper introduction to rough-and-tumble national politics

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Soon, Giuliani opponents say, it will be Rudy’s turn.

“On the national stage, people know him for two things right now – cleaning up New York City and Sept. 11,” observed an aide to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

“He exploded on the national scene not as an elected official, but as ‘America’s Mayor,’” the aide continued. “Most nationally known figures have gone through the vetting process of a national campaign. He was not introduced through the traditional process. It’s not like he had to be elected America’s Mayor.”

That “traditional process,” of course, includes the sort of deep probing and tough scrutiny that even the aggressive New York City press corps can’t match. With Giuliani, opponents believe they have ample fodder to feed to the ever-hungry media beast – for starters, three marriages and a moderate record on social issues that would seem to be anathema to conservative GOP primary voters.

Still, Giuliani’s GOP rivals are treading lightly so far and are hesitant to attack him on the record – a sign of the surprising power Giuliani has shown in the campaign’s early months.

One notable exception took place last week, when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said of the former mayor in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network: “He is pro-choice, he is pro-gay marriage, and anti-gun. That's a tough combination in a Republican primary." (Giuliani actually opposes gay marriage but is supportive of civil unions.)

But it was telling that even in Romney’s camp, aides hustled to soften that shot by saying Romney discussed those issues in relation to Giuliani only because he was asked the question.

If Giuliani’s impressive poll numbers continue, opponents will undoubtedly zero in on his potential vulnerabilities: a soap opera of a personal life, questionable business ties, a hard-charging governing style that did not suffer critics lightly and apostasy on core conservative orthodoxy.

“When you’re running for president, there is always a ‘but,’” noted a Romney adviser. “When you start looking to Rudy’s but’s” -- issues, family life, former clients – “there’s lots of buts.”

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“The key is,the press maketh and the press taketh away,” said the Romney partisan. “If you took a stack of clips on our side, [Romney’s] probably the guy whose suffered the most heat over the past three months.” But that’s starting to change, this person said, and soon enough “it will be Rudy’s turn.”

“In about three months or so,” the adviser predicted, “we’ll look back on the story on his son as the beginning of a change.”

As first reported by The New York Times last weekend, Giuliani has had strained relations with his two children since a very public and very messy divorce from their mother, Donna Hanover, in 2000. The former mayor’s son, Andrew, talked to the Times and then ABC News, making painfully apparent that he would have nothing to do with his father’s campaign.

Such stories remind, or inform, voters of the other side of Giuliani. But when do they start to have an impact on his numbers?

Giuliani’s descent, said an adviser to a rival GOP campaign, will begin when “he ceases to be a celebrity and starts to be more of a regular candidate.”

A regular candidate, that is, with a trove of controversial moves waiting to be re-aired, from his time as mayor and U.S. attorney.

It’s “hard to make the argument that he was a bad mayor or bad prosecutor,” the rival campaign source acknowledged, but there remains ample information to mine from his years as mayor, this person hinted.

“How did he go about cleaning up New York City? How did he make that city governable? What were the methods or means that could potentially come back to hurt him?”

Frank Donatelli, a veteran Republican supporting McCain but not playing an active role in his campaign, likened the early relationship between Giuliani and GOP primary voters to the first torrid days of an affair where flaws are minimized or ignored.

“When you’re dating somebody, you see the best qualities in them. And let’s face it, Rudy’s a very attractive fellow.”

Still, Donatelli sees a “tough road” for Hizzoner and points to a recent Politico report about the left-leaning judges Giuliani appointed as New York mayor as indicative of the sort of potholes that lay ahead.

“Judicial appointees really will resonate with the base,” said Donatelli, a Reaganite and former director of Young Americans for Freedom. “Conservatives believe that the whole spectrum of social issues begins with judges. If you have a demonstrably poor record there, it’s tough to overcome.”

But in the early stages of the campaign, Giuliani has not yet had to play defense to any significant degree about his past actions, present views and vision for the future.

“His campaign has done a good job of keeping him scripted,” a supporter of another GOP candidate conceded. “He’s going to events that play to his strengths. Getting a bagel in West Palm Beach is not a tough lift.”

The early coverage, a McCain aide added, has been dominated by “tactical and process stories.”

“There hasn’t been room for ideological debate and Rudy has not been in a position where he’s really had to talk about anything substantive.”

Charlie Black, a GOP campaign veteran backing McCain, offered praise for Giuliani’s early campaign but said that the true test will come later.

“The fall is really when the people in the early states start to focus,” Black argued. Giuliani could well remain ahead in polling through the summer and into autumn, Black said, but more important will be the end of 2007 when voters in those key early contests have tuned in and learned about the policy positions of the candidates.

“I’d want to look at polls around the middle of November in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

Giuliani adviser Tony Carbonetti responded to the notion that his boss can’t win over the party base by arguing that the GOP is a more diverse lot than some in the press think.

“The New York reporter mentality,” Carbonetti said, is to think “very little of the Republican primary voter.”

“What we’re seeing is that [GOP voters] are looking for a larger set of attributes. They want the picture as a whole.”

Carbonetti said Giuliani will “talk to everybody” in the party and address issues like abortion, gay rights and guns as they arise, but that “it all comes down to what people want from their elected officials.”

“If its leadership, competent governance and somebody you know is going to wake up every day thinking about how he can do a better job, Rudy’s your guy.”

Carbonetti downplayed their early poll standing, predicting the numbers are “going to go up and they’re going to go down.”

And about the former mayor’s dramatic personal life?

Carbonetti predicted voters will say “that’s just life” and be able to relate to such troubles.

“People have their own personal lives, their own families and their own difficulties.”

Another Republican strategist favorable to Giuliani’s campaign also argued that thorny questions about Giuliani’s life at home won’t sink him.

“We’ve elected a president before who didn’t have the tidiest personal life and it was because of his governing style,” the strategist said, referring to Reagan.

“People are smart enough to make decisions on multiple factors,” continued the Republican, and the “importance of leadership in a time of war outweighs all others.”