Vuli and Msimu seasons underway and average production expected in 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Concentration of displaced people

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3: Crisis

4: Emergency

5: Famine

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Concentration of displaced people

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3+: Crisis or higher

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Concentration of displaced people

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3: Crisis

4: Emergency

5: Famine

Remote monitoring countries:

1: Minimal

2: Stressed

3+: Crisis or higher

Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

The 2017/18 October to December Vuli and October to May Msimu seasons are underway, characterized by land preparation and planting. Msimu production, which makes up around 70 percent of total national production, is expected to be average. Poor households in these southern unimodal areas are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the projection period.

Some poor households in northern bimodal and central unimodal areas are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through February. These households depleted stocks from the previous below-average season around September and face difficulty purchasing both sufficient food and inputs for the ongoing season. However, food access has improved somewhat for these poor households, who are accessing early season agricultural labor opportunities and purchasing food at average prices.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates the total number of refugees in Tanzania is over 360,000 as of September 30, of whom approximately 261,061 are from Burundi. Funding shortfalls in 2017 have resulted in a consistent reduction in the size of food ration provided to refugees. In September and October, refugees were provided with a food ration of 62 percent of required daily caloric needs. Through December, with newly secured funds and in-kind assistance, food assistance at current levels is likely to continue and most refugees will maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Assistance plans and funding levels beyond December are unknown and in the absence of assistance, refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Up to 40 percent reduction in March to May Masika harvest, which led to early depletion of household food stocks, nearly three months earlier than usual.

September to December Vuli rainfall is forecast to be average to above average

· With the early depletion of household food stocks from Masika production, poor households faced an earlier start to the lean season. Household are atypically reliant on markets and face difficulty purchasing both sufficient food and inputs for the Vuli season. Household food access is expected to remain favorable due to lowering staple food prices, but they will still be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through February. Food security will improve somewhat with the early harvest of Vuli short-cycle crops harvest in late December. Further improvements will take place in early 2018 with the full harvest.

Refugee camps in Kagera and Kigoma regions

· Food rations have been reduced to 62 percent of the 2,100-kilocalorie requirement due to funding shortfalls.

Additional funds have been secured in recent months and 20 percent of funding requirements have now been met, up from 5 percent in mid-2017. Additionally, 8,000 MT of food was pledged in early October. With secured funds, food assistance at current levels is likely to continue through December. However, funding levels beyond December are unknown. Most refugees have limited alternative sources of food and income and food security would decline in the event of further reductions in the ration provided or in the absence of assistance.

Projected Outlook through May 2018

Many poor households in bimodal areas are atypically market dependent during the ongoing lean season and are expected to remain heavily market dependent through December. Despite this, food access has steadily improved from early 2017 as a result of price declines that began in May and have continued through September. The price of a kilogram of maize in Arusha has declined steadily from the peak price of 1,228 Tsh in May, down to 577 Tsh in September. Prices are now similar to the five-year September average price of 515 Tsh. Similarly, the retail price of maize also declined from a peak of 947 Tsh in April in Mbeya market, situated in the surplus-producing southern highlands, to 517 Tsh in September. This price is also now near average. Near-average Msimu production and the export ban instituted by the Tanzania government in June have kept local maize prices low, despite substantial regional deficits. Given the expectation that the ban will remain in place in the coming months and average Vuli and Msimu harvest, prices are expected to remain near average throughout the projection period.

The October to December Vuli season is underway in Kagera, Kigoma, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, Simiyu, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, and Morogoro. While the Vuli season only contributes 15-18 percent to overall annual national cereal production, it is an important season for poor households, both through agricultural labor income and the harvest of short-cycle food crops in December that marks the end of the lean season. Although prices are now at near normal levels, poor households in northern and central areas face some difficulty purchasing both inputs for the season and sufficient food needs and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through February 2018, when the full Vuli harvest is expected to improve food security to Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

In unimodal southern surplus-producing highlands of Katavi, Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, and Songea, land preparation is ongoing and planting is anticipated to begin on time in November. Given the forecast for above-average tending to average rainfall, May to July production is expected to be average to slightly above average and will contribute up to 70 percent of overall national cereal output. Poor households in southern unimodal areas are expected to have normal food access and normal harvests and maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the projection period.

As of September 30, UNHCR indicated that there were 364,276 refugees in Nyarugusu, Mtendeli, Nduta, and Lumasi camps in Kagera and Kigoma regions in Tanzania. An estimated 261,061 of whom are refugees from Burundi and arrived after April 2015. According to UNHCR, about 1,700 refugees returned Burundi in September and an additional 12,000 are anticipated to return to Burundi in the coming months. For those who remain, access to food and income sources outside of humanitarian assistance are limited. Currently, most refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), supported by on-going humanitarian assistance. With secured funds, food assistance at current levels is likely to continue through December. However, funding levels beyond December are unknown and in the absence of assistance, or in the event that funding shortfalls lead to further reductions in the size of the ration provided, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is likely.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

Quick Links

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

The information provided on this Web site is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.