AEROSPACE

The international airline business, the biggest sector of the world aerospace industry, continued to operate at disastrously high levels of unprofitability in 1993. The International Air Transport Association, before its annual meeting in November, projected that its members would lose $2 billion during the year, bringing cumulative losses since 1990 to $13.5 billion. Nevertheless, the 1993 figure was smaller than the $4.8 billion shortfall of 1992. The reason for the continued deficit continued to be excess capacity. Ireland’s Guinness Peat Aviation, the world’s largest commercial-aircraft leasing firm, was saved from bankruptcy when some of its aircraft were purchased by General Electric Capital Corp. and deliveries of others from Boeing Co., McDonnell Douglas Corp., and Airbus Industrie were delayed.

Observers forecast a "new look" for Europe, with fewer but larger and more efficient airlines, mostly privatized, to compete with the three U.S. megacarriers, United, Delta, and American. Four European airlines (SAS, Swissair, KLM, and Austrian Airlines) were studying strategic alliances to compete more effectively in world markets. British Airways continued plans to invest in U.S. operator US Air despite protests by United, Delta, and American that this was unfair, while Lufthansa narrowed to United its search for a strategic partner.

The airframe companies likewise all suffered from canceled or deferred orders. U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton intervened for his nation’s interests when he telephoned King Fahd of Saudi Arabia with the offer of a $6.2 billion loan, covering 85% of the financing needed to reequip the Arab country’s Saudia airline with U.S. equipment.

More optimistically, Boeing (which rolled out its 1,000th 747) and McDonnell Douglas predicted that the next two decades would see a demand for some 13,000 new transport planes worth $1 billion. For the moment, however, Boeing and Martin Marietta both announced plant closings and personnel layoffs in late 1993. Meanwhile, the four-engined Airbus A340, the largest European-built transport, began scheduled services with Air France and Lufthansa. Russia’s advanced transport, the Ilyushin Il-96M, was unveiled at a Moscow air show. Though fitted with U.S. avionics and engines and theoretically a competitor to the Airbus A330/A340 series and the upcoming Boeing 777, it was thought to lack credibility in the U.S. and Western Europe, and observers forecast that it would have an uphill struggle in an already oversubscribed market. Airbus Industrie (scheduled to be privatized in about 1995) was preparing to sign an agreement with Russian transport manufacturer Tupolev to build parts for its A300/320/330 series airliners. In Ukraine the Kiev-based Antonov company continued to expand its monopoly role in the global superheavy load business with its giant An-124 freighters.

Western nations continued to plan for new military strategies in the wake of geopolitical realignments and changing or diminishing threats from the former Warsaw Pact countries. The problem was how, in the wake of plunging defense needs, to maintain a skilled industrial base of design teams as a hedge against future conflicts. A partial answer was seen to be concentration on technical upgrades; for example, Western avionics companies were studying the market for upgrading Russia’s MiG-21. Experts noted that new avionics for this still-effective fighter could be worth about $1 billion over a 10-year period.

In the U.S. the Department of Defense launched a major reevaluation of its needs in an effort to reduce its budget by many billions of dollars over the next four years. It recommended canceling the A/FX and multi-role fighters (two proposed new combat aircraft) and replacing them with a new plane, the joint attack fighter (for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy), to be placed in service in 2012. The review counseled continuation of both the F-22, winner of the Advanced Tactical Fighter competition for a new U.S. Air Force aircraft to replace the F-15, and the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 carrier fighter. (See MILITARY AFFAIRS.)

Lockheed Corp. strengthened its position in the military field by purchasing General Dynamics’ fighter business at Fort Worth, Texas, for $1.5 billion, thereby consolidating its already strong presence in the Western defense community. Of other programs coming under scrutiny, the U.S. Army ordered that the cost of the RAH-66 Comanche battlefield helicopter be cut by one-third.

Meanwhile, doubt was cast over the efficiency of some of the "smart" weapons that were supposed to have done so well in the Gulf war. The Tomahawk cruise missile was singled out in this context. Nonetheless, experts predicted that these small, relatively cheap but effective and difficult-to-detect devices would proliferate and perhaps become the most important offensive weapons.

Europe’s top military-aircraft program, the four-nation (U.K., Germany, Italy, and Spain) European Fighter Aircraft, came under threat in late 1992 when Germany, worn down by the expenses of reunification, refused to support the mounting costs. The project was then restructured around a simpler specification and relaunched under the new name Eurofighter 2000.

Observers at the biennial Paris Air Show--in its 40th year--called for a reduction in the number of such international trade events. Thailand’s first aerospace exposition, Thai Airshow 93, was held in September, while Taiwan held its second during the previous month; the Dubayy show was scheduled for November. Industry observers protested that the international aerospace industry could not continue to support such a drain on its resources, especially at a time of deep recession in both civil and military markets. The French aerospace industry association noted that its members were in a crisis situation, and figures showed that this decline had started as long ago as 1983. The sale of 60 Mirage 2000s to Taiwan in late 1992 was one of the few success stories in this field for France.

The recession problem was even more difficult for Russia’s aerospace industry, delegates from which arrived at Paris searching for a new identity. Many new collaborative ventures with Western companies were agreed upon, but the core problem remained that of launching onto international markets new and competitive combat aircraft at a time of acute financial stringency in Russia. In an effort to capture sales, Russia’s top military fighters, the MiG-29 Fulcrum and Su-27 Flanker, were heavily promoted at Western air shows (two MiG-29s collided in midair at a major U.K. event), and Malaysia bought a batch of MiG-29s, which would fly alongside U.S.-produced F/A-18 Hornets in that country. Michael Wilson

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