By comparison, whoever is the coach of the Springboks in 2019 will have to select 15 black players in their squad of 30.

This is according to Saru’s Transformation Strategic Plan, which has committed to a 50% black Springbok team by 2019, 60% of which, in Saru’s language, has to be “black African”. Of these 15 black players, 12 will have to make the match-day squad of 23, and 8 will have to take their place in the starting 15.

If we unpack what Saru means, of the 30 world cup squad players, 9 will have to be “black African”; in the match day squad of 23 there will have to be 8; and in the starting 15 there will have to be 6.

It may seem like a tall order for the Springbok rugby coach of 2019, but there are more than enough talented black rugby players in the country to meet these targets; in fact, most of them have already represented the Springboks or are on the fringes of the squad.

Just consider this Springbok team of 2019, picked now in 2015 by The Con, which obviously doesn’t take into account rugby players not on our radar who will rise through the ranks in the next four years.

15. Willie le Roux

14. Lwazi Mvovo

13. S’bura Sithole

12. Damian de Allende

11. Lionel Mapoe

10. Patrick Lambie

09. Cobus Reinach

08. Nizaam Carr

07. Teboho Mohoje

06. Siya Kolisi

05. Pieter-Steph du Toit

04. Eben Etzebeth

03. Trevor Nyakane

02. Scarra Ntubeni

01. Thomas du Toit

Reserves:

Jesse Kriel (fullback/centre)

Rhyno Smith (fullback)

JP Pietersen (wing/centre)

Cornal Hendricks (wing)

Juan de Jongh (centre)

Handrè Pollard (flyhalf, centre)

Mthokozisi Mkhabela (scrumhalf)

Tera Mtembu (loose forward)

Ox Nche (prop)

That’s a team with 9 black springboks, 7 of whom are “black African”.

Another 7 black player are in the reserves The Con has picked, with 3 being “black African”. Granted, not all of these reserves are ready to play for the Springboks in 2015, but we feel they have enough talent to be potential future Springboks.

But guess how many of the black players in The Con’s starting 15 for 2019 are currently among the 17 players who currently have Springbok contracts?

The answer is one, Siya Kolisi, who was handed a two-year contract in 2013.

The Springbok’s other contracted black player is prop Tendai Mtawarira, who will be 33 in 2019 and probably too old to still play for the Springboks.

Wings Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen would in all likelihood be contracted Springboks as well, but because they play in France and Japan respectively, they are excluded by Saru from being contracted for the Springboks. Habana will be 35 in 2019, and Pietersen will be 32.

But white players on the periphery of the Bok squad such as Francois Hougaard and Coenie Oosthuizen, and players who are not even in the recently announced Springbok training squads such as JJ Engelbrecht and Flip van der Merwe, have Springbok contracts.

It’s clear that up until now Saru has been quite happy to keep black rugby players on the periphery of the squad, happy for them to play a test here or there but not prepared to hand them a long-term Springbok contract. This is going to have to change if Saru is serious about putting a 50% black team on the field in 2019.

Players like Trevor Nyakane (25), Siya Kolisi (23), Teboho Mohoje (24), Lwazi Mvovo (28), Juan de Jongh (27), Cornal Hendricks (27), JP Pietersen (28), Nizaam Car (24) and Damian de Allende (23) have already been capped as Springboks, and most of them will be young enough to still be representing the Springboks in 2019. Naturally, they should form the core of the team.

Other black players such as S’bura Sithole (24), Lionel Mapoe (26), Scarra Ntubeni (24), Tera Mtembu (24), Mthokozisi Mkhabela (20), Ox Nche (20) and Rhyno Smith (20) are either on the fringes of the squad or have shown enough potential to suggest they have Springbok careers ahead of them.

But the question really is: are they going to be backed to perform for the Springboks?

That brings us back to Meyer. Saru may have let Meyer off the hook, allowing him to take an almost exclusively white team to the World Cup in 2015, but what will the ramifications of that decision mean for the Springbok team in 2019? Has Saru made a decision that is in the best interests of South African rugby, or has it taken the shortsighted view in 2015 to the long-term detriment of South African rugby in the run-up to 2019?

If Meyer gets it wrong and doesn’t pick the right players in his squad of 30 in August, he could be doing harm to the 2019 Springbok team vision. Based on Meyer’s team selections over the past three years, it would be fair to predict that Nyakane, Hendricks, Pietersen and De Allende could well make this year’s Springbok World Cup Squad.

But players like Kolisi, Mohoje, Mvovo, De Jongh, Mapoe, Ntubeni and Carr are considered to be on the fringes of the squad and could lose out, and players such as Sithole, who was not even in the Springbok training squads announced a few weeks ago, will definitely miss out. If these players do miss out on selection, we will have a situation where key future Springboks such as Kolisi will be 27 when they get to play at their first World Cup in 2019.

In 2019, Mvovo will be 32, Mapoe will be 30, and Mohoje, Ntubeni and Car will be 28. This is far too late for these key players to be getting their first taste of the pressures of a World Cup. These players are good enough right now to make the Springbok World Cup squad, so if Meyer decides to omit them, he will be dealing a serious blow to the dream of a majority-black South African rugby team in 2019.

It is likely that players such as Schalk Burger, Marcell Coetzee, Hougaard, Adriaan Strauss, Jan Serfontein and Warren Whiteley, to name just a few, could be favoured above these key black players. But are they deserving of their spots if they get them? Let’s crunch some numbers from the Super Rugby tournament so far this year.

It’s clear that Meyer’s first-choice loose forwards are Willem Alberts, Duane Vermeulen and Francois Louw. There are probably only two other spots in the World Cup squad for loose forwards, which means Coetzee and Burger will go up against Kolisi, Carr and Mohoje.

Meyer is a huge fan of Coetzee, and rightly so – he is an immense rugby player, and The Con would argue his position as a reserve loose forward is pretty much guaranteed. “He is special, very special,” Meyer recently told SA Rugby Magazine. “He’ll be an 80-plus cap Springbok, probably a centurion if we look after him physically.” That is straight from the coach’s mouth, so you can pencil Coetzee’s name in that World Cup squad from now.

So that leaves Burger going up against Kolisi, Carr and Mohoje for a final loose forward spot, barring any injuries. This World Cup may come just a year too early for Mohoje, but if Meyer decides to pick six loose forwards in his squad, he may be in with a shot. Carr and Kolisi are ready, and the stats after 11 rounds of Super Rugby prove it.

Carr has played 20% more rugby than Burger in 2015 so far, and has gained 50% more metres with the ball than Burger, beaten more than double the number of defenders as Burger, and has collected four times as many loose balls as Burger. On top of that, Carr has made 75 tackles to Burger’s 48, has missed fewer tackles than Burger, and has won more turnovers than Burger. Carr is 24 and Burger is 32 – who do you think should go to the World Cup?

And what about Kolisi, who is also in the running for a place in the World Cup squad? Kolisi has played 6% more rugby than Burger this year and has gained almost equal number of metres with the ball in hand. But he has beaten almost twice the number of defenders Burger has, has collected twice as many loose balls, has made 61 tackles to Burger’s 48, and has missed only a quarter of the tackles Burger has. Kolisi is 23 and Burger is 32 – who do you think should go to the World Cup?

Let’s switch to the centres. If he recovers from his injury, Jean de Villiers, who was Springbok captain until he got injured during the 2014 end-of-year tour, will be going to the World Cup. His centre partner for most of that tour was Serfontein. But the stats after 11 rounds of the Super 15 rugby tournament tell an interesting story.

In De Villiers’ absence, De Allende has been the form South African inside centre.

De Allende is the highest ranked South African in terms of line breaks, carries, and defenders beaten. He is also the second most successful South African player in terms of metres gained and third most successful in terms of offloads. His stats in 2015 are nothing short of phenomenal. If he doesn’t go to the 2015 World Cup, it will be a travesty.

If you compare De Allende’s stats to Serfontein’s, it’s like chalk and cheese. De Allende has 13 line breaks to Serfontein’s 1; 40 defenders beaten to 6; 468 metres gained to 94; 12 offloads to 1; and 63 tackles made to 38. Granted, Serfontein has played just more than half the number of minutes De Allende has played in 2015, but those stats speak for themselves.

Then let’s look at Mapoe, who has 7 line breaks, 17 defenders beaten, 404 metres gained, 17 offloads, and 63 tackles. Mapoe has played 60% more rugby than Serfontein, but that difference doesn’t account for the clear discrepancies in the level of their performances in 2015.

And then there is De Jongh, who has 11 line breaks, 8 defenders beaten, 287 metres gained, 8 offloads and 46 tackles. It’s clear that if you were going to pick on form and looking ahead to the 2019 World Cup, De Allende, Mapoe and De Jongh should go to the World Cup ahead of Serfontein.

If Saru is serious about transformation in South African rugby, it will insist that the core players the 2019 Springbok team will be built around are included in Meyer’s squad. If it doesn’t, it will once again be highlighting the fact that it is not taking transformation and the future of South African rugby seriously.

The (Con)tributors

2 Responses to “All Whites to All Blacks”

Someone sent me a link to this article and while I don’t normally respond to nonsense such as this, I felt compelled to comment. As a general statement, I think the article is way off the mark and down right ignorant. It is written by someone who I would venture doesn’t just not understand rugby, but by someone who doesn’t understand sport. I am going to address the drivel in the article piece by piece to bring some reason to a conversation that more often then not now days, seems terrified of it.

– The team you have selected above in my opinion would battle to maintain a top 5 ranking in World Rugby. We go to another World Cup this year with the genuine prospect of winning the tournament. The team you have selected above would end that possibility. The traditional strength of Springbok rugby (the pack) would be neutralised through your selections. The loose trio in particular would be taken to pieces by any decent forward pack. If you can’t recognise this, I would suggest you know nothing about rugby in my opinion.

- There seems to be a suggestion in your article that black players are not being contracted as a result of the colour of their skin. I would challenge you to be produce an argument for this that would 100% rule out the possibility of these players being contracted or not for rugby reasons. In my view, both Siya Kolisi and JJ Englebrecht are lucky to have contracts. the other white players you mentioned are all completely understandable in terms of their contract status. On some level, so are the first two players mentioned here as they were part of the set up at some point over the last 4 years but have both struggled with injuries and form. I can understand why the racially motivated alternative would be appealing at times for a journalist. Usually though, as it is in this case, it’s just down right lazy journalism.

– The suggestion that we should bring these black players into the squad for this world cup is problematic and confused. It’s actually very simple, either you are looking to pick a team designed to win the tournament, or you are looking to pick a team that is racially representative of the country. You can’t have both. This world cup, fortunately for actual rugby supporters, this team is being picked to win. By trying to blood in these player of colours for racially motivated reasons is going to be detrimental to our ability to win the tournament. Why? well to put it bluntly, the players of colour you are suggesting are not as good as the white alternatives at this moment. As horrible as that is, it is the reality. I would also point out that there is going to be 4 years of international rugby between this world cup and the next one. There are a number of caps to be gained during that time. So I don’t buy your argument that us picking players to win this tournament, will hurt our chances in 2019. If we pick based on a desire to have the team “represent” in 2019 as proposed, we will have no chance of winning anyway irrespective of how many caps they have.

– “It is likely that players such as Schalk Burger, Marcell Coetzee, Hougaard, Adriaan Strauss, Jan Serfontein and Warren Whiteley, to name just a few, could be favoured above these key black players. But are they deserving of their spots if they get them?” I’m sorry but I thought this was one of the more laughable components of your article. If you sat down with any respected ruby brain in this country (Mallett, White, Coetzee, Erasmus etc.) and asked them this question, I am quite confident as to what the answer would be. The fact that you tried to justify your question by “crunching the numbers” further confirms my belief that you not only don’t understand rugby, you don’t understand sport. While “the numbers” can be useful in looking at player performance, there are a variety of variable factors that come into play that affect the nature of these numbers (what team they play in, what strategy their team adopts, how they interact with the player next to them on that team, the weather conditions they play in, luck, the players fitness levels at the time etc. etc.). These “numbers” also can’t tell us how these players will perform in an entirely new set up surrounded by different players and coaching staff, in different conditions competing at a higher level than they are used to. To any informed sport watcher, the numbers can only get you so far. In my mind, at least 4 of these 6 players mentioned above are absolute certainties for the World Cup, and so they should be.

– To further impress on the above point. Class is permanent, form is temporary comes to mind. just because a player is on form at super rugby level this season, does not necessarily mean he will be the best performing Springbok in his position. The reality is far more nuanced than that. Amongst inexperienced Sport watchers, there is this tendency to think that the idea of picking the “form players” is how you win titles. It isn’t. Speak to Clive Woodward, Jake White or Graham Henry. Hell speak to Jose Mourinho or Alex Ferguson. Title wining sides are build over time, not just thrown together. Sometimes this means picking the more talented/experienced player over the form player. Quality coaches know this and so do informed pundits. I would pick Jan Serfontein ahead of Lionel Mapoe and Juan De Jongh every day of the week. He’s just a better player. The IRB 2012 Junior Player of the Year. This is a special talent. I would also pick Burger ahead of Carr and Kolisi every time. He brings more to the table on a number of levels and again, I would suggest that most major rugby brains in this country would agree.

– My final point, and this is lost on most South Africans who don’t truly understand what merit selection is. This notion of a player “deserving a chance” is nonsense. Who determines when someone deserves a chance? Merit selection is about picking the best person for the position. you could have a player that has been playing at a high level for 5 years who by all accounts is a very good player, but if there is someone better than him in his position, he doesn’t deserve to be picked. He isn’t the best. This is not a charity line. It’s not about giving people chances, it’s about winning. Like I said above, you need to be clear about what your objectives are, you are either trying to pick a side to win, or you are picking a side to represent, you can’t properly have both. For those who don’t care or love the game of rugby (our politicians), the choice will be easy. But it will be the rugby loving public who will bear the cost of this decision. Perhaps it is only when we are languishing at 6th in the world, with any hopes of beating the All Blacks ever, being a distant memory that we will understand the difference between merit selection and window dressing.

– As a side note . I encourage you to do a little exercise. Take a look at all the players in South Africa who have been regular starters in their Super Rugby franchises, let’s say they have started over 15 games in a two year cycle. then take a look at how many of these players have then graduated to being included in the Springbok squad proper. Then take a look at the percentage conversion rate of black, coloured and white players from regular Super Rugby player to Springbok. The results are interesting. Anyone who thinks that black players are impeded when it comes to Springbok selection are buying into a popularised myth. The reality is actually the complete opposite.

I see we have a channeler to Meyer’s brain and a psychic in Voice of Reason here???

I like the difference in the angle with this article compared to others I see over popular rugby websites in SA although black players and statistics are not what wins anything in rugby at the end of the day.

The part I still think we are too over facinated about…is the World Cup itself! We do need to think beyond this 4 year phenomenon and build a No 1 winning team for all occassions. Getting a World Cup then becomes a bonus. If Ireland won this World Cup it would be great for Ireland…but deep down we know NZ is the best team in the world!

As SA supporter with 2 World Cups I can say I do not want to be a one month or 2 World Cup winner anymore…I want us to have the best team in the World for sustained period of 12 months or more. A World Cup will not necessarily bring us that.

So when it comes to players like Mapoe, Kolisi, De Allende and Carr etc., I would be backing them 100% NOW to play as well as possible to be considered for the tests coming in a few weeks, so they can be tested in these games for World Cup contention. If you can look good against NZ and Aus and were already tested as well in the end of year tour last year..I would say you are in with a good shot for a World Cup berth. That’s it!

So for somebody like Mapoe who has not been close to the Bok setup… if he continues to show form in Super Rugby…pick him on the bench for a test…see what happens…but for God’s sake….reward the top form players of Super Rugby with a look in…and if they happen to be black (which they obviously will)…BONUS!