I’ll blog more on this later, but here are the key new factoids from the USGS survey:

A third of the yet-to-be discovered oil, or about 30 billion barrels, is off the coast of Alaska. The findings also confirmed the pivotal role of Russia. Nearly two-thirds of the yet-to-be found natural gas resources are in two Russian provinces…

It will not ratchet up global production like a new Saudi Arabia,” said Donald Lee Gautier, a USGS geologist who played a key role in the survey, known as the Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. “These are additions that will come over time.”

… But large parts of the Arctic, especially offshore, remain unexplored. Near-permanent sea ice makes it almost impossible to acquire seismic data and drill exploratory wells.

Climate change is opening the region. The Northwest Passage, home to deadly ice floes that can crush ships, was ice-free last summer. Some predict it will turn into a new trade route between Europe and Asia, and a channel that oil companies can use to ferry workers, equipment and supplies around more freely.

And we could well see increasing political disputes:

Oil exploration might also be hampered by rising nationalism. The five circumpolar states — Canada, Russia, the U.S., Norway and Denmark — are scrambling to claim new territory in the central Arctic Ocean. Last August, a Russian submarine planted the country’s flag on the seabed some 14,000 feet under the North Pole. Shortly afterward, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that his country’s military presence in the Arctic would be beefed up.

The rhetoric stems from disagreements over who has sovereignty over the North Pole. Russia rests its claim on the theory that two underwater mountain chains that cross the Arctic Ocean, the Lomonosov and Mendeleev Ridges, are in fact extensions of its continental shelf. Denmark disputes that. A United Nations body that rules on such claims has recommended additional research….

Yet there is little likelihood that much of Russia’s Arctic wealth will be exploited any time soon. The country still has vast untapped fields onshore that are first in line to be developed.

Development would also be hampered by Russia’s likely reluctance to let in foreign companies with experience developing oil and gas riches in hostile environments like the Arctic. Some firms have been allowed in, but only as junior partners of state-controlled Russian entities such as OAO Gazprom.

The Arctic energy report, then, perhaps supports the assertions of those saying that the world will not be able to drill its way out of the oil crunch in the long run, and that, with or without considering global warming, we must eventually shift to electrified transportation and renewable farmed fuels for sectors like aviation that can’t plug in.

I couldn’t find an email for you in the 5 minutes I spent looking so I thought I’d contact you this way. I want to have a discussion with you on hydrogen energy. I agree with you for the most part as far as hydrogen being used as a transportation fuel and even about the timeline for developing fuel cell vehicles to the point where they are a force to be reckoned with in the marketplace. however, I think that the development and use of on board steam reformer/partial oxidation reactors could be different. these devices could allow us to use hydrogen fuel produced on board the vehicle from a hydrocarbon and water and could be developed rapidly. This would allow any vehicle to run on hydrogen fuel half of which would come from a hydrocarbon and half from water. It would also cut the CO2 pollution of the vehicle by roughly 50% and reduce hydrocarbon fuel consumption by 50%. This means we could have at least half a hydrogen economy NOW without making any changes in our current storage and distribution infrastructure.

In reply to your post: isn’t is handy that all of the ice is melting up north? It is almost like god is “parting the red sea” all over again through the agent of global warming to allow his chosen ones (oil companies) access to the arctic oil… sheesh

Tangent: It occurs to me that one could possibly mitigate the release of methane from melting permafrost by harvesting it on a large scale. I’m thinking of much in the same way that former landfills are currently used as a source of methane in some places.

I don’t know if such a project would be feasible or practical, but it might be worth checking into…

[No problem in operating a drilling platform in an ocean that freezes solid. It’s not like an ice sheet packs much of a destructive punch]

Are you speaking from experience or knowledge?

As far as I know, massive areas of old and new ice, in the Arctic, are continually being swept around by wind and ocean currents. If heavy steel hulled vessels including submarines are always in danger of being crushed by moving Arctic ice, I suspect a drilling platform might pose an even greater risk of collapse.

I watched several news stories, and not once did I hear anything about how hard it will be to drill for oil in the Arctic Ocean. I think the proposition is fraught with difficulties. It won’t be cheap oil.