26. Inexact Science: Part I,I
Being drafted in the first round is no guarantee of future major-league stardom, much less even reaching the promised land. Among 1,198 players selected in the first round (June, regular phase only) from 1965-2009, only 827—or 69.0 percent—had ascended to the big leagues by the start of the 2014 season (no provision has been made for first-rounders drafted from 2010-13). Understandably, the success rate for first-round draft picks has climbed through the years as baseball scouting has become more sophisticated. From 1965-74, in the first decade of the draft’s existence, the success rate of first-rounders was only 62.9 percent; in the five-year period from 2005-09, it had jumped to 76.3 percent. But it has not been a steady, upward trend, as 75.2 percent of first-rounders reached the big leagues in the decade from 1985-94, while only 67.7 percent were successful from 1995-2004.

In the first of a two-part series, Allan takes you through 25 of the most notable moments and events in draft history.

Major League Baseball is conducting its 50th first-year player draft this week, and we thought it would be a golden opportunity to take a 50-year retrospective on the baseball draft as part of our general preview coverage of this year’s proceedings.

Naturally, we’ve enlisted our resident draft historian, Allan Simpson, to take a look back at some of the highlights—and lowlights—of the draft through the years and shed some of his own perspective on how the draft has evolved, and the impact it has had on the game.

Please note that the players are ranked on the basis of raw talent, with minor consideration given to any signability issues—or, in more cases, possible injuries—that might impact a player’s standing in the draft.

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1. Jonathan Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma (Jr.)
A combination of better conditioning and improving mechanics have vaulted Gray from a potential first round pick before the season to a potential first overall pick when the Houston Astros kick off the draft on June 6. Gray has been lighting up radar guns in the 95-100 range while peaking as high as 102 mph consistently all spring and maintaining his velocity deep into starts. His slider, which some scouts feel the Oklahoma coaching staff calls too frequently, is a second plus pitch in the mid- to upper 80s with a hard and deep late bite. Not only has Gray shown dominant stuff that has been compared to Justin Verlander, he’s shown the ability to use it as well, posting an 8-1, 1.20 record in 89 innings, with only 51 hits and 16 walks allowed to go with 104 strikeouts. Batters are hitting .166-1-15 against Gray this year. Gray was a well-known prospect out of Chandler, Okla. as a high schooler, topping out at 93 mph, but was only picked in the 13th round (Royals) and again in the 10th round (Pirates) after attending Eastern Oklahoma JC in 2011 before transferring to Oklahoma.

2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University (Sr.)
After turning down the Pittsburgh Pirates, who made Appel the eighth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Appel returned to Stanford for his senior season. It's no secret that while Appel had the physical gifts to potential become the No. 1 overall pick last year, his signing bonus demands proved detrimental in the environment of the new CBA. A Boras Corp. client, signability is still going to be a major factor in where Appel actually comes off the board this year as well. While the perception is that he'll have less leverage this time around as a college senior, Appel has the kind of talent that should get him serious consideration to be a top two overall pick. Appel has the stuff, size, and track record to justify spending a major portion of a team's bonus pool to acquire his services and appears to be as close to big-league-ready as any prospect in this draft. The 6-foot-5 righty consistently works in the mid-90s and can run his fastball into the upper 90s on occasion. He combines that with a changeup that frequently flashes plus in the mid-80s, and he has a vicious knockout slider that has allowed him to continue to pile up the strikeouts this spring (84 through first 70-1/3 IP).

26. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts (Jr.)
Gonzalez grew up in Boca Raton, Florida and was a mid- to upper 80s thrower with a pretty firm mid-70s curveball in high school. The Baltimore Orioles thought enough of him to draft him in the 11th round in the 2010 draft, but interestingly it seems as if the Florida schools did not recruit Gonzalez heavily, as his Oral Roberts bio states that Gonzalez “chose ORU over UNC Greensboro, College of Charleston and Western Kentucky.” That oversight has been a boon for Oral Roberts, as Gonzalez has been their top starter for each of his three college seasons, including posting a 7-4, 1.89 mark in 90 innings this spring, with 101 strikeouts and only 69 hits and 20 walks allowed. Gonzalez stuff has grown since high school, of course, and he has filled out to a solid 6-foot-3, 200-pounds. He now throws in the 90-93 mph range and will touch higher occasionally. More important than the velocity of his fastball is the frequent plus/plus cutting life he gets on the pitch and his ability to command that movement. Some scouts have even called it a “Mariano Rivera” type fastball that could make him a very effective closer by itself. Gonzalez has also gone from a hard curveball to a true slider in the low-80s that is a second potential plus pitch and resembles a slower and somewhat deeper version of his fastball. He also throws a steadily improving changeup that will become a bigger factor for him as a professional, especially as he learns to make it run and sink to differentiate it from his other two pitches. Gonzalez has been picking up huge momentum during the spring as more and more decision makers get in to see him, and is now frequently mentioned in late first-round conversations.

27. Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University (Jr.)
Anderson was a virtual unknown coming out of a Minnesota high school in 2010 and hardly raised his profile during his first two years at Jacksonville. He began to attract scout’s attention last summer in the Cape Cod League and vaulted into first round status early this spring when his fastball was topping out at 96 mph to go with a present plus slider. Anderson’s past few starts have been a bit rough, taking a bit of the shine as a possible top half of the first round candidate off, but he seems like a secure bet to be the first Florida based player off the board.

The back half of the best hundred players available in this week's amateur draft.

Perfect Game's Draft Prospects 26-50 and 1-25 will be published on Wednesday, followed by a final mock draft on Thursday. You can find all of the amateur draft coverage available at BP through the central hub here.

51. DUSTIN PETERSON, ss, Gilbert HS (Ariz.)
Peterson is the younger brother of University of New Mexico third baseman D.J. Peterson, considered one of the 2-3 best hitting prospects in the 2013 draft class and a near-lock to go in the first round. Almost every Arizona scout whiffed on the elder Peterson’s potential with the bat in 2010 when he played at Gilbert High, and they appear determined not to make the same mistake on Dustin, who has many of his brother’s offensive skills and by all accounts is a more complete talent at comparable stages of their careers. He, too, has a strong, quick swing with plenty of thunder in his bat, can consistently square up balls to the gaps, and projects to hit for true home-run power as he fills out his 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame.

On December 5, 2012, Baseball Prospectus and Perfect Game announced a partnership to help promote and cover the game at both the amateur and professional levels. As a result of this partnership, Baseball Prospectus subscribers will now get the opportunity to read some of the great premium content being published by Perfect Game for its members.

It's mid-April, the midway point of the spring scouting season, and teams continue to align their draft boards. Some teams and players in the north have just begun playing, but baseball in the south is well underway.

On December 5, 2012, Baseball Prospectus and Perfect Game announced a partnership to help promote and cover the game at both the amateur and professional levels. As a result of this partnership, Baseball Prospectus subscribers will now get the opportunity to read some of the great premium content being published by Perfect Game for its members.

Rankings and scouting reports of the Cape Cod League's top 100 prospects

On December 5, 2012, Baseball Prospectus and Perfect Game announced a partnership to help promote and cover the game at both the amateur and professional levels. As a result of this partnership, Baseball Prospectus subscribers will now get the opportunity to read some of the great premium content being published by Perfect Game for its members. Today, courtesy of Perfect Game, we bring you this special report on Cape Cod League prospects by Allan Simpson.

A juiced baseball that led to a dramatic increase in home runs was the No. 1 storyline in summer-college baseball in 2012, and nowhere was the surge more impactful than in the Cape Cod League, the nation’s showcase summer circuit.