A Second Helping of Peyton Manning’s three interceptions in Atlanta

Ted BartlettSep 20, 2012 1:26 PM

Happy Thursday, friends. The All-22 film was made available yesterday, and I had occasion to review the Falcons game. I saw a lot of positive things to feel good about, but for today, I’m going to focus on some negative things.

Peyton Manning threw three interceptions in the first quarter, and that put the Broncos in a very tough position. They nearly rallied to win the game, nut ultimately fell short.

I’ve reviewed the three plays repeatedly, and there are three general reasons why the interceptions occurred:

1. Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator, and the Falcons disguised their coverages well.

2. The Falcons have a very underrated pair of safeties in William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. Each is among the top ten players in the NFL at his position.

3. Manning’s mental game hasn’t been perfect. He may have some rust there that needs to be overcome.

I do not buy for a second that the problems are physical. Manning can still throw the ball with plenty of zip when he needs to, but throws to the seam tend to be touch throws over a trailing underneath defender. Even if Manning could sling it like Jay Cutler or Matthew Stafford, he wouldn’t be throwing the fastball on those throws.

Plain and simple, one of Manning’s three interceptions was a bad decision where he got fooled, and the other two were cases of him staring down the inside receiver, and not keeping nearby zone defenders honest. We’re going to look at all three plays today and work to understand what’s really going on.

Play 1

The Broncos are in 11 personnel, slot to the right, and Manning is in the shotgun. Pre-snap, Manning sees base defense and eight men in the box, as you see from the numbers I added to the screenshot. This indicates that the Falcons want to sell out to stop the run. I suspect that Manning read the defense as Cover 3, given the CBs playing with their backs to the sidelines.

Here’s another view, and you can see that SS William Moore (25) is the eighth man in the box. He’s the key to this play, and the guy who’s ultimately going to intercept the ball.

Just post-snap, you see the offense running three verticals against what Manning thinks is Cover 3, but Moore is bailing out quickly in the middle of the field, as you see. The video quality of NFL.com wasn’t real good last night, but you can see that Brandon Stokley has his underneath guy beaten badly, and if Manning can drop in the throw to him, like he has hundreds of times in his career, it’s a big completion.

The problem is that this isn’t Cover 3; it’s Cover 4. Moore has made his way back into a deep quarter, and Manning appears not to have caught onto that as he watches Stokley work the seam. Moore can see Manning looking that way, and he easily makes the short run to the seam to undercut the route and intercept the ball.

What Moore did there was play like the Steelers use Troy Polamalu. He started at the line of scrimmage, and dropped back into quarters when he diagnosed pass. Not every safety can make that play, and I don’t remember the Falcons showing this look against the Chiefs in Week 1. Quite simply, the throw was going to be fine if it were Cover 3, but Nolan and Moore got Manning by tricking him.

Play 2

The Broncos are in the same grouping here - 11 personnel - but a different alignment. In the first play, they were 2 by 2, and here, it’s 3 by 1, with the trio to the right side. The Falcons are showing a two-deep shell, and the Sam LB is walked out to split the difference between Stokley and Joel Dreessen. The CBs are playing way off.

At the snap, we see zone technique across the board, with the Mike and the Will moving forward on the play-fake to Willis McGahee. That’s going to create good space between them and the safeties on the in-cut for Eric Decker, at the bottom of the picture.

As we see here, Decker has made his in-cut and he’s wide open. The FS DeCoud is ten yards behind him, but he’s watching Manning’s eyes. Again, Manning is staring down Stokley in the slot. The correct play would be to go to Decker here, but Manning sees Stokley as having beaten the underneath coverage - with the deep-half guy honoring Demaryius Thomas’s vertical route - and he goes to Stokley.

Because DeCoud is watching Manning’s eyes - and because Manning never does anything to move him - DeCoud’s going to simply come from watching the other half of the field (from the hashmark, so it’s not a terribly far run) and undercut the throw.

Play 3

Here, we see 12 personnel again; 3 by 1 to the right, and again from the shotgun. This time, there’s a double slot look. The defense is obviously going to be in zone, since the CB at the bottom of the screen stays on that side, not following the WR to the top of the screen. The CB at the top is playing way off, and leaning like he wants to bail quickly.

That CB does bail really quickly, as we see, and it’s going to be Cover 3, which the Falcons run frequently. Manning again wants Stokley, and you see him here post-snap, eating up the cushion on the underneath defender quickly. The offensive play is three verticals to the top of the screen, and an underneath crosser to the bottom.

At the 25-yard line, you see the outside deep defender, CB Robert McClain has split the difference between Stokley and Thomas running their vertical routes. Manning again locks onto Stokley, which allows McClain to drift inside, and intercept the ball.

The thing for Manning to do here is to at least look outside to Thomas, or better yet, to pump fake that way. The Manning of old was awesome at manipulating defenses with his eyes, and it seems like he’s not fully back yet, on that part of his game.

Here’s the deal – no old QB can throw the ball as well as he did when he was 24. Manning has never had a “laser rocket arm,” what he said in commercials notwithstanding, and he always has thrown a somewhat wobbly ball. We’re all new to having him as our QB, so our ability to compare him to past years isn’t as good as that of somebody who’s watched every snap of every Colts game for ten years.

There are subtle things that great QBs do when they have everything working, and Manning hasn’t gotten fully into form with them yet. The issue isn’t his throwing, it’s his overall process; he’s missing slightly on some of the subtle things that combined to make him so effective.

I would compare Manning to Tiger Woods, and remember that it took Tiger a significant amount of time to get back into top form, as he struggled to get all the little inputs right that made him such a dominant golfer for so long. Tiger looks good now, and it just took some time.

If anything, I think Manning has had a less significant dropoff from his hiatus than Woods did, and I think that the little things are going to get back in order quickly. I guarantee you that Manning is spending a lot of time this week thinking about looking off zone defenders, and that we’re not going to see continuing problems in that area.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

This game reminded me of our second Raiders game in the Broncos' breathrough 1977 season. In the first game we blew them out 30-7. In the second game the Raiders came prepared, fired off the ball in perfect unison, and ran up a 24-0 lead. But the Broncos fought back, scored a couple of TDs, and lost by a respectable 24-14. Our loss to the Falcons was a stark contrast to the Panthers' loss in the game I watched earlier tonight. The Giants ran up a 20-0 lead, same as the Falcons did, and the Panthers never got into it and lost 36-7. The Broncos, in contrast, fought back hard and were one stop away from having a chance to win the game, despite their horrible start. This team has grit.

Ted, I'm glad to see you making the point that Manning's downfield passes were touch throws, like the ones I've seen him make for years dropping the ball in over the underneath coverage. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought he had plenty of zip when it was appropriate. We're too used to Cutler's line drives on deep throws, which of course allows a beaten defender to cut underneath and pick off a pass that should be over his head. Great analysis. I look forward to seeing Peyton regain his mental sharpness, which has always been his strength.

Posted by spock on 2012-09-21 04:56:40

Bottom Line: If you play, and execute well, you win. Broncos did neither. The defense played well enough to keep us in the game, kudos to those defensive players. If you're Manning, well, you've got some work to do. Sitting out those games, the neck injuries, well, Manning just realized he got one degree slower and the league one degree faster. Something the Falcons put to good use was the fact they got to see us play the Steelers beforehand, they were ready. They were playing at home too. PM is a compeititor, he'll adjust. Besides, the good news is there were no major injuries. I believe a study would show that, more teams go to the playoffs, and or win the Super Bowl, that have say, 4, 5, or even 6 losses, that have minimal injuries, than those that go on a tear all season trying to win all their games and incur many injuries. (Being a good team, and playing well are still necessary) Folks, thar's still a lotta blue sky between now and the end of the season!

Posted by CaptCatnip on 2012-09-20 21:52:49

Thanks, Ted. You shed a lot of light on the why and what happened. He may have locked onto Stockley on all 3 of the INTs but later in the game he looked like he was back to the Manning of old.

I appreciate your time and talent in explaining.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-09-20 19:42:53

It did seem to me that he was somewhat fixated on Stokely. You mentioned that Decker was wide open underneath on the second pick. On the first one, Decker looked like he was wide open for 6 points at the time he released the ball. Did it look that way on the all 22 film, as well?

Posted by jayrockstone on 2012-09-20 18:26:18

I'm trying to forget that whole first half.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-09-20 18:25:51

Same here Myron. That's exactly what I thought of too, which is why it's so nice to know we can start off that poorly and still have a chance in these games.

Posted by AndrewR4488 on 2012-09-20 17:54:05

Xtreme: I had the same thought. Seems to me he trusts those guys to be in the right spot and will go to them even when they're covered -- at the expense of open options (as in the second play above).

I'm guessing that won't last much longer, as he shakes off the rust, works the field with his eyes and learns to trust Decker and DT.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2012-09-20 17:53:03

I can agree with that, Ted. I still think these particular throws weren't very good. IMO, the first was a bit underthrown; Tamme had to come back for it, and if it had hit him more in stride it probably wound't have been intercepted. But upon watching it again, it was closer than I remembered it being and Tamme probably would have cuaght it had Moore not jumped the route. I'd say the second was the worst throw. It was intercepted at the 42, and Stokely was at about the 37 or 38 yard line. The third wasn't too bad; a bit overthrown but I think Stokely would've at least gotten a hand on it had it not been intercepted. Who knows, it might've been a touchdown had Manning looked off the coverage.

That said, discussing interceptions specifically obviously leaves you with an unrepresented sample. There were other really good throws later in the game - the one to Decker should've been a touch down, and the TD pass to Thomas was great, wobbly or not. If anything it's probably good for Manning to get this sort of performance out of the way; it was probably inevitable sooner or later given the circumstances and the sooner he puts it behind him the better. Opposing defenses are going to try to replicate these sorts of coverages, by which time Manning will have moved on. Remember the regular season game back in 2004 or so, when Al Wilson and the Bronco's D owned him? Wilson spent the whole game running around behind the LOS screaming audibles (both real and fake), changing the defense right up to the snap. He got Manning off his game and the Broncos won the game. They met later that year in the playoffs, and Manning tore us a new one... I think Manning will be more and more prepared as the season wears on.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-09-20 17:22:49

It was actually very apparent to me during replays how much Manning locked his eyes on his receivers in the first quarter. Later in the game, he seemed a bit better and he's smart enough like you said to correct that going forward. I don't have any concerns about his arm strength at this point. Credit the Falcons with a good defensive plan that did seem to make him get out of his routine at the line of scrimmage.

Posted by DocPonderosa on 2012-09-20 17:21:23

Gotcha Ted...that wasn't what I had gleaned from your article so thanks for the clarification. I will say I've seen several passes to the outside by him including the replay you refer to, and they have great zip. His INTs really had me scratching my head.

Posted by sadaraine on 2012-09-20 16:59:16

I don't think "option football" can succeed in the NFL, if we're talking about the Barry Switzer wishbone. I do think that the zone-read series can be very effective, and that elements of option football can make a nice complement to more pro-style scheming. I think the best place to see it is Washington, where the Shanahans are going to do a really nice job incorporating the stuff that Griffin was successful with in college into their existing scheme.

The reason option running works is that it forces defenses to account for the QB. To the extent that you're willing to get your QB hit some, it can definitely be effective.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2012-09-20 16:41:14

It could help. I think if Hillman ever learns how to block he could be dangerous in the passing game. Ball, to me, is just a guy.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2012-09-20 16:37:57

You can click through each of the interceptions at this link. Just keep clicking on "next."http://kissingsuzykolber.uprox...To my admittedly untrained eye, I would say that only the second one wobbled, the first was on target, the second one was underthrown, and the third was a little overthrown--but probably not enough to keep the receiver from making the catch if the defender was not there.

Posted by AldenBrown on 2012-09-20 16:37:52

What I would say to you both is that while those throws may not have been great throws, I don't think they're an indication that he can't make great throws. NBC showed Manning zipping a deep out at 45 mph, down from 47 mph in 2010. That post that Manning threw to Decker Monday, and a couple of other throws as well, had plenty of steam on them.

The notion that the guy CAN'T make good throws is wrong - that's what I'm saying.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2012-09-20 16:36:59

That first quarter made me think of that Raiders game all over again...

Posted by Myron Giddings Jr on 2012-09-20 16:30:54

Thanks, Ted.This is very helpful in understanding why the wheels fell off in the 1st Qtr.It was good to see the team fight and try to overcome a bad start instead of folding in a rout like we have seen in the past few years.

Posted by Alaskan on 2012-09-20 16:21:06

"I think Manning has had a less significant dropoff from his hiatus than Woods did, and I think that the little things are going to get back in order quickly"

I sure hope so. Tiger has all his life to golf. As far as the rest of his football career, time isn't on Peyton's side.

Posted by A R on 2012-09-20 16:13:16

Ted, last season you wrote an article, where, if I remember correctly, you discussed whether option football could succeed in the NFL. With the success of Cam Newton running plays from it, and Tebow last year, and with the likes of QB-runners like RG3 and Russell Wilson that have entered the league, I was just wondering if you have any plans to write a follow-up article on the topic, or if not, if you'd share your thoughts on whether you think it may or may not succeed.

Posted by DavidInLA on 2012-09-20 16:02:54

Weren't Stokley and Tamme the two guys he was staring down? Could it be that his lack of familiarity with the other guys is causing him to focus too much on the guys he is familiar with?

Posted by Xtreme212000 on 2012-09-20 15:55:02

Wow. Surprised Manning is staring down receivers. To me this smacks of his lack of complete familiarity with his receivers. If he absolutely trusted his guys to be where theyre supposed to be, he wouldnt have to do more than glance their way as hes releasing it. This is the work in progress he keeps talkin about. Theyll get there.

Posted by pubkeeper on 2012-09-20 15:51:11

Great read Ted. A couple of the passes seemed a little floaty, but the point is valid that he should have looked those safeties off. A little concerning that his mental game was off since that was never really a concern before. Hopefully playing and practicing more shakes those cobwebs loose.

Question Ted: how much would a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield help these plays in particular? All Monday night I kept saying, where's the dump off screen? That tends to keep safeties honest, slows the pass rush, and can help a shaky QB regain confidence. Willis clearly isn't much of a threat or we would be using him, and no one seems to trust Knowshon. Seems like a perfect place for Hillman/Ball but its noticeably absent from the playbook.

Posted by Kriss Bergethon on 2012-09-20 15:23:58

Thanks Ted, for covering these plays. I was half dreading and half looking forward to a Second Helping on these plays. It's lots of fun to revisit plays after a win, and nobody wants to dwell on the star QB throwing 3 picks in one quarter, but often you get more insight from the bad plays than the good. I'm really glad you picked these plays.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-09-20 14:53:35

I agree with Ted wholeheartedly regarding the reason why the defenders were in position to make the plays that they did. As for the actual passes, I'm in agreement with Sadarine. One them (I believe the second, I can't remember exactly) looked like it was badly underthrown, to the point where it would've dropped several yards short of the receiver regardless of what defenders where in the area. Of the other two, one looked OK and one looked a little weak, IMO. If the throws had gotten downfield a bit quicker, or been thrown further downfield, I'm guessing 1 or two of the three wouldn't have been intercepted. If I had to guess, he may have overestimated his ability to get those throws downfield. As he settles into playing every week, he should make better decisions, and his arm strength should continue to improve. I expect to see the gap between the throws he wants to make and the throws he can make should close. That said, I think we'll see him really start to shine next year, when he's had an offseason to recuperate. There's a limit to how much strenth he can regain during the rigors of the NFL season, so I'm trying to keep a slightly longer-term outlook here. remember, we're still in year two of the three year process here.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-09-20 14:50:46

Very astute analysis, Ted. You helped me to understand some things. All Peyton's foibles seem correctable, and, as you implied, you can bet he has been extraordinarily busy correcting them.

Posted by AZDynamics on 2012-09-20 14:37:31

There was almost universal agreement that it would take awhile for Manning to start clicking due to the combined effects of the missed season, injury recovery and new team. Then he lights it up in one quarter of one preseason game and he is declared back.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2012-09-20 14:35:33

I rarely disagree ith Ted, but I do on the idea that the throws were fine...they were not. Touch passes don't have to float like these did. They looked very weak to me. I do agree that the decisions were poor in each case. There is room for improvement in both the physical and mental aspects of his current play IMO.