08ASTANA2471, KAZAKHSTAN: SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN HOUSING AND ECONOMIC

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002471
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOVPRELPHUMSOCIKDEMKZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN HOUSING AND ECONOMIC
ISSUES
ASTANA 00002471 001.2 OF 002
¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 1, Charge d'Affaires met with Talmas
movement leader Aynur Kurmanov. Kurmanov discussed the impact of
the current financial crisis and the creation of a "new poor class"
from members of the middle class. Kurmanov predicted that, given
the change in their standard of living, certain members of the
Kazakhstani middle class will become more politically active and
join protest groups. When asked about differences in policy between
the government and opposition political parties, Kurmanov stated
there were no policy or platform differences. At one point during
the meeting, Kurmanov commented, "We do not have political parties
in Kazakhstan, just social movements." END SUMMARY.
¶3. (SBU) Although relatively young, Kurmanov is very active in
grass-roots social movements and the Communist Party. In 2003, he
was elected chairman of the Molodaya Gvardiya youth movement and was
an activist with the Solidarnost labor movement and independent
trade union at Uralsk's Mettalist plant until 2004. After numerous
arrests, Kurmanov left Uralsk in 2004, and resettled in Almaty,
where he continued to work with the Solidarnost movement. In 2006,
Kurmanov founded the Socialist Resistance movement and erler thsy, he ette aa Qcy. He
claimed the government is gradually "nationalizing" the private
sector and using the current economic crisis as an excuse to
redistribute the assets of banks. Kurmanov quoted a Kazakhstani
economist who called the government "corrupt" for buying 25 per cent
of shares in four leading banks and said he doubts the money set
aside to solve the crisis will be used properly. Kurmanov commented
that one potential result of the government's actions will be the
creation of mega-banks, (NOTE: which is also happening in the United
States. END NOTE.)
¶6. (SBU) Kurmanov reported that the current Memorandum of
Understanding between the government and mining companies to prevent
mass layoffs will expire on January 1, 2009. He said that more than
30,000 mining workers are currently on leave from mining companies
in the country, including 5pz],Qanov told the Charge that on November 30, Yermukhamet
Yertysbayev, currently an advisor to President Nazarbayev and
previouslqf:9 said that "in times of crisis,
the opposition and government should be one." Kurmanov said he
thought Yertysbayev's speech was an attempt to discover the
opposition's plans prior to the next elections. (NOTE: While
rumors of early elections continue, President Nazarbayev recently
stated that the next elections will be held on schedule, in 2012.
END NOTE.)
¶8. (SBU) When asked about the opposition's policy points, Kurmanov
answered dismissively, saying the political opposition in Kazakhstan
ASTANA 00002471 002.2 OF 002
is weak. He said that while the government might find a way to
bring some opposition representatives into parliament, this will
only be done "for the good of the West and OSCE." Kurmanov argued
that opposition in Kazakhstan is expressed through social problems,
not political beliefs. Kurmanov said the Leave the Houses to the
People movement has become one of the most active groups during the
economic crisis. He suggested this movement could inspire the
formation of new trade unions and the development of other grass
roots movements against unemployment and pension problems.
¶9. (SBU) NOTE: Daulet Zhumabekov, leader of the BOMZh movement,
was also expected to attend the December 1 meeting with the Charge.
BOMZh, a Russian acronym for those without an official place of
residence, is a movement of retired military personnel fighting to
receive free housing promised by the Ministry of Defense. Under
Kazakhstani law, retired officers with 25 years of service are
entitled to free apartments. Several officers won a lawsuit against
the Ministry of Defense for its failure to fulfill the housing
obligation; but to date, none of the officers has received housing.
On November 30, Zhumanbekov performed a unique protest act, climbing
to the top of a construction crane in Almaty and refusing to come
down for 11 hours. Zhumabekov subsequently said his group's claims
had not been satisfied, although Ministry of Defense (MOD) officials
promised to re-examine them. A few hours before the meeting at the
Embassy Branch Office, post was informed that Zhumanbekov had &#x00
0A;traveled to Astana to meet with MOD officials. END NOTE.
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Post has fruitlessly looked to find an
opposition party with a defined policy platform. The opposition
political parties are organized around personalities, largely those
who previously served in the government but subsequently split with
Nazarbayev. The "social movements" do have policy platforms, but
are generally restricted to a single issue. Nonetheless, these
movements have had some limited success in changing government
policy and may represent a first step toward a uniquely Kazakhstani
path to exerting the people's will. After all, historically in the
United States, all great social movements have led to political
results and enhanced democracy. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND

The information recorded on this site has been extracted from http://Wikileaks.org (Kazakhstan) database..

We wish to express our gratitude to Julian Assange and his team for making this data available as it is an important public record.

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