JSSISI: 2003 to 2004, Vol. XXXIII, 157th Session http://hdl.handle.net/2262/14582017-09-26T21:43:01Z2017-09-26T21:43:01ZAre Irish households and corporations over-indebted - and does it matter?Kearns, Allanhttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/46582016-09-09T20:08:37Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZAre Irish households and corporations over-indebted - and does it matter?
Kearns, Allan
Household and corporate indebtedness has soared in recent years and is now at
historically high levels. The market for credit today is unrecognisable compared with just 30
years ago when, in the national economic interest, the rate of credit growth was controlled
centrally. The central questions addressed in this paper are whether households and
corporates are over-indebted now and why this might be a worrying development? Previous
authors have suggested that over-indebtedness may have severe consequences: (i) higher rates
of arrears and bankruptcies, (ii) sharp contractions in investment and consumption, and (iii)
increased fragility in the banking system. The aggregate evidence on indebtedness is
contrasted with micro-data on households, corporates and credit institutions. This paper
concludes that households and corporates may not be over-indebted when (i) account is also
taken of improvements in their debt-service capacity and (ii) micro-data is used to qualify the
aggregate indebtedness data. Furthermore, credit institutions appear to be well insulated
against severe shocks that could potentially arise from households or corporates.
Read before the Society, 29 January 2004
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZThe transformation of the Irish labour market: 1980-2003Walsh, Brendan M.http://hdl.handle.net/2262/25782016-09-09T15:31:21Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZThe transformation of the Irish labour market: 1980-2003
Walsh, Brendan M.
Traditionally characterised as a labour-surplus economy, Ireland was transformed
during the 1990s. An impressive rate of employment growth led to a reduction in the
unemployment rate from 15.7% to 4% between 1988 and 2004. Over the same period, labour
force participation rates rose markedly and emigration was replaced by a rising net inflow of
population. The improvements in labour market outcomes were widely spread across regions,
age groups, and educational levels. Employment in agriculture and traditional industrial
sectors continued to decline but rapid employment growth occurred in newer manufacturing
sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and medical instrumentation, construction,
tourism and internationally traded financial sectors. This paper attributes the remarkable
transformation of the Irish labour market to a combination of favourable demand side shocks,
an elastic labour supply, a growing stock of human capital and a successful return to
centralised wage bargaining. The role of structural labour market reforms is discussed and it
is argues that their role in the transformation of the labour market was relatively minor.
Read before the Society, 6 May 2004
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZModelling the factors associated with deadweight and displacement: an Irish industrial policy evaluationLenihan, Helenahttp://hdl.handle.net/2262/14382016-09-09T20:10:22Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZModelling the factors associated with deadweight and displacement: an Irish industrial policy evaluation
Lenihan, Helena
Evaluating industrial policy interventions has become a growing theme for
academics and policymakers. Evaluation should explore the `counter-factual?; this involves
examining the related phenomena of deadweight and displacement. Research to date has
almost exclusively concerned itself with deriving headline estimates of these phenomena
(particularly deadweight in the Irish context) and discussing their consequences. The main
argument in this paper is that it is no longer sufficient to merely derive estimates of
deadweight and displacement and to discuss their consequences; the focus of attention should
now turn to establishing specific firm factors (e.g. size of firm; type of firm ownership; type
of assistance received) that influence these estimates. It is only then that real policy
improvements and learning can occur. To this end, the explicit focus of this paper is to
ascertain whether certain firm characteristics are likely to influence the likelihood of
deadweight and/or displacement effects. The methodological approach developed has broadbased
applicability beyond the Irish context, given that the econometric techniques adopted
are adaptable to the evaluation of various types of policy interventions in a variety of
contexts.
Read before the Society, 26 November 2003
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZSensible tax policies in open economiesHines, James R.http://hdl.handle.net/2262/14372016-09-09T15:31:48Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZSensible tax policies in open economies
Hines, James R.
This paper evaluates the design and the desirability of business taxes in small open
economies, in light of evidence of the impact of taxation on the activities of multinational
firms. The high degree of international capital mobility implies that small countries benefit by
reducing their tax rates below the rates of other countries with whom they compete, possibly
to the point of eliminating any taxes on inbound investment. Countries likewise have
incentives not to tax the foreign incomes of resident companies. Host countries that are
tempted to use their tax systems to subsidize and thereby encourage local employment, net
exports, research, or other activities of foreign investors may do so effectively, but greater
targeted activity of this kind typically comes at significant cost to the local economy.
Particular attention is paid to the experience of low rates of Irish taxation.
Read before the Society, 23 October 2003
2004-01-01T00:00:00Z