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A Jobs Report Conspiracy?

Well isn't that convenient? The Obama campaign desperately needed the last employment report to be released before the election to show that the unemployment rate had fallen below 8 percent, and somehow it magically happened. Even though non-farm payroll employment only increased by 114,000 last month (not enough to even keep up with population growth), the official unemployment rate fell from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent. So how did that happen? Well, the unemployment number is not based on the survey of employers that showed that 114,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. Rather it is based on a survey of households. And that survey showed that the total number of Americans employed last month increased by a whopping 873,000 - almost eight times the number that the employer survey showed. That figure for September (873,000) was the biggest one month increase in 29 years. And it just happened to come at the exact perfect time for Barack Obama. So was there a jobs report conspiracy? Examine the evidence and decide for yourself.
The number of Americans with a job fell by 195,000 in July.

But somehow in September it miraculously exploded in the other direction and 873,000 jobs were added to the economy?

If you believe that, I have a bridge that I want to sell you.

Somehow, the largest increase in jobs in 29 years happened just when Barack Obama needed it the most.

Nah, that doesn't sound fishy to me at all.

We are being told that a big reason for the huge increase was the number of Americans working part-time for "economic reasons". That number surged from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September.

Why the sudden jump?

Nobody can really explain it.

And if you look at the U6 unemployment rate, nothing has really changed at all. U6 is still at 14.7 percent just like it was last month.

But the media is not going to talk about the U6 rate. Instead, all of the headlines are going to be about "7.8 percent".

According to the survey of employers, the U.S. economy added fewer jobs in September than it did in August, and it added fewer jobs in August than it did in July.
So according to the survey of employers, the employment situation in the United States is getting worse.

But according to the household survey, we just had the greatest month of job creation since the first term of Ronald Reagan.
Something does not add up.

And as I have written about previously, the unemployment rate would actually be up around 11 percent instead of 7.8 percent if not for the millions of workers that the government claims "dropped out of the labor force" over the past few years because they became too discouraged to look for work.

So unemployment in America is still a massive crisis, but the media is boldly proclaiming that things are getting better and that we are on the road to recovery.
Of course Obama looks like the cat who ate the canary today. He is just thrilled with the "7.8 percent" number.

But the truth is that according to the employer survey, job growth in the United States is actually slower than last year. The following is from the Calculated Risk blog....

All that said, the economy has only added 1.3 million payroll jobs over the first nine months of the year. At this pace, the economy would only add around 1.8 million private sector jobs in 2012; less than the 2.1 million added in 2011.

Are you starting to see why people are so skeptical of this jobs report?

When the "7.8 percent" figure was released, there was immediately a wave of shock and unbelief throughout the financial world and all over the Internet.

The following is a sampling of skeptical quotes about this jobs report....

The numbers deserve a lot more attention. He does put out numbers to go by, not saying his numbers are correct. But the household survey numbers are pretty dramatic as opposed to the non-farm payroll employment numbers. Something isn't adding up.

But without context it's hard to know what to make of those numbers. Is the household number supposed to be the same as the non-farm payroll number? If not the same, is it supposed to be close, or some ratio?

Eshlemon would be good with this. He's good with economic numbers. If what the author said is true "the unemployment number is not based on the survey of employers that showed that 114,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. Rather it is based on a survey of households." then at least we could know thediscrepancy. Why were different numbers used? Because last months numbers were just about the same as September. And we didn't see any change in the unemployment. But this month we do? Like I said before it's worth taking a look at.

(To be fair, not all GOP members felt something underhanded was going on. As former Bush White House aide Tony Fratto put it, " BLS is not manipulating data. Evidence of such would be a scandal of enormous proportions & loss of credibility.")

That is pretty much the sentiment among economists.

"I would be very skeptical of any claims the job statistics are manipulated," Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, in Washington, D.C., told ABC News. "If they were, the administration's record so far in 2012 would undoubtedly look a lot brighter." Indeed, as Ezra Klein points out in the Washington Post, the drop is a mere three-tenths of one percent, from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent-not exactly a reason to crack open the Veuve Clicquot.

What's more, Burless said it's uncharacteristic of the Obama administration to lie about something like this. "Richard Nixon was notorious for distrusting the BLS, and he probably managed to frighten some long-time BLS employees," said Burtless. "But I have not heard any persuasive reports of statistical manipulation in the BLS, even during the Nixon administration. So it would be astounding if President Obama has been more successful along those lines than Nixon managed to be."

Guy La Bas, a managing director, fixed income strategy, at Janney Montgomery Scott, a Philadelphia brokerage firm, agreed. "I don't want to simply blast Welch since he's a very respected manager," he told ABC News in an email. "In this instance, he issued an off-the-cuff remark which I highly doubt is true, but that doesn't negate the value of his business opinions."

But, he added, "The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which conducts the monthly jobs survey is a non-partisan group of hard-working people that have the public trust. Considering this trust and the controls imposed on their processes, the chances that the BLS actively "manipulated" data are extremely low, even if some of the numbers underlying today's jobs report appear surprising. In my discussions with statistical organizations, political officials receive information about economic releases only afterthe numbers have been calculated, so there's no opportunity for the White House-or anyone else-to alter the results."

Posted most of this in another thread, but decided to throw it up here. As bad as the Obama administration has been about transparency, i would hope would could all agree that if one President was going to commit a conspiracy against the job numbers it would be Nixon.

As well, alot of the conspiracy theory doesnt add up to me. If Obama was adjusting the numbers, wouldnt they have looked alot better for months now? 7.8 isnt exactly thrilling. If Obama wanted to wait to adjust them, wouldnt he do it next month right before the election? By then it would be to late to do much about it before people vote, now they have a month to dissect the numbers. Say what you will about Obama, but he knows if people catch him adjusting the numbers his re-election would go down the tiolet.

Obama caught a break, period. But its not like his campaign was on the ropes and his re-election was a distant hope. Losing a single of three debates isnt the end of the world, especially when he had this much of a lead on his opponent. The Romney campaign has been so inept that Obama thought he had already been re-elected when he walked off the plane in Denver. He got a wake up call, but it was hardly alarming. This jobs report was simply good luck. Or, if you want to look at it a different way, this was Romney's bad luck. And isnt that something his campaign has been plagued with?

It is not unusual for the number to vary greatly month to month, notes economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers in Holland, Pa. For example, in April the BLS reported that 342,000 fewer people had found jobs and in May it reported that 642,000 had found work.

“The unemployment rate will probably go back to 7.9 percent or maybe 8 percent next month,” he says.

This is not the first time aspersions have been cast on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank in Washington. In 1971, President Richard Nixon was angered when the BLS attributed a drop in the unemployment rate from 6.2 percent to 5.6 percent in a month to a statistical fluke, says the EPI website.

Timothy Noah, writing in Slate, published excerpts from White House tape recordings in which Nixon and an adviser, Charles Colson, decide that a Jewish cabal at BLS is trying to undermine the president's economic policy. “Well, listen, they are all Jews over there?” he asks Colson. Then, in an official act of anti-Semitism, Nixon tells Colson, “All right, I want a look at any sensitive areas around where Jews are involved, Bob. See, the Jews are all through the government, and we have got to get in those areas. We've got to get a man in charge who is not Jewish to control the Jewish … do you understand?”

Posted most of this in another thread, but decided to throw it up here. As bad as the Obama administration has been about transparency, i would hope would could all agree that if one President was going to commit a conspiracy against the job numbers it would be Nixon.

As well, alot of the conspiracy theory doesnt add up to me. If Obama was adjusting the numbers, wouldnt they have looked alot better for months now? 7.8 isnt exactly thrilling. If Obama wanted to wait to adjust them, wouldnt he do it next month right before the election? By then it would be to late to do much about it before people vote, now they have a month to dissect the numbers. Say what you will about Obama, but he knows if people catch him adjusting the numbers his re-election would go down the tiolet.

Obama caught a break, period. But its not like his campaign was on the ropes and his re-election was a distant hope. Losing a single of three debates isnt the end of the world, especially when he had this much of a lead on his opponent. The Romney campaign has been so inept that Obama thought he had already been re-elected when he walked off the plane in Denver. He got a wake up call, but it was hardly alarming. This jobs report was simply good luck. Or, if you want to look at it a different way, this was Romney's bad luck. And isnt that something his campaign has been plagued with?

i would like to hope there is no conspiracy here as i am not a conspiracy guy, but u say 7.8 isnt exactly thrilling which ur right about, but compared to the last one at 8.1 that would be a positive.

also, 7.8 is what it was at when he came into office, so over 4 years he has not gotten the unemployment down so far, and for most of his time its been above the 8.0 threshold. certainly not a positive for him.

also the added overall jobs was far from stellar. although this report may not hurt him further, i dont believe its going to help him drastically.

i would like to hope there is no conspiracy here as i am not a conspiracy guy, but u say 7.8 isnt exactly thrilling which ur right about, but compared to the last one at 8.1 that would be a positive.

also, 7.8 is what it was at when he came into office, so over 4 years he has not gotten the unemployment down so far, and for most of his time its been above the 8.0 threshold. certainly not a positive for him.

also the added overall jobs was far from stellar. although this report may not hurt him further, i dont believe its going to help him drastically.

Never stated it would help get him re-elected, just stated the numbers were real and there is no conspiracy. In fact, im willing to bet this will hurt him, because the numbers will undoubtedly go up next month immediately before the election.

And yes, 7.8 is better then 8.1. But thats like declaring getting stabbed with a knife is healthier then getting shot with a gun. In the end, your still wounded.

A Jobs Report Conspiracy?

When the facts don't match what your agenda then question the facts. I believe we are on a decline to the dark ages if the ultra right get their way. Ignorant people are perfect for their manipulation. The Nazis have returned.

When are the old republicans who will bargain and compromise for the sake of the country going to return. Bring them back and give us independents a real choice between two candidates in the polling both.