Ryanair's Michael O'Leary is in the news today here in Germany as Germany's largest broadsheet FAZ has done an interview with him. He is quoted with plans to significantly boost Ryanair's presence in Germany by adding 5 or 6 additional German airports to its route network. To achieve this, he claims that Ryanair is currently negotiationg with 20 airports. He also says that Ryanair does not intend to serve BER once it opens because of the high costs charged there.

Realistically, if he plans to serve an additional 5-6 airports, they must come from this list - as everything else would be too unrealisitc (FRA, MUC), too exotic even by Ryanair standards (GWT, HDF) or too overlapping with existing FR destinations (AOC):

HAMHAJDUSKSF*PAD*STR*FDH*SCN/ZQWERFRLGDRS

* = on the record for not willing to accept Ryanair's conditions (note: almost every FR airport with existing service said that at some point)

The most interesting aspect, in my opinion, is, however, potential growth at CGN, NUE, DTM and LEJ, airports Ryanair has begun to serve relatively recently. They certainly offer a lot of potential as they are in the heart or close to lucrative markets and could easily be expanded at the expense of existing airports such as HHN, NRN or SXF.

SCN would be quite a good choice IMO as the catchment area goes well into Luxembourg and France.
They could start cheap OPO flights from there as there is a lot of VFR traffic on that route.
That said, they already tried ZQW and it did not work.

I suppose, but SZW is in the middle of nowhere even by Ryanair standards.

And to make matters worse, the Landkreis (kind of like a county) in which Parchim lies has the fifth-lowest population density in Germany, with just 46 people per square kilometer (for comparison, the national average is 230 people per square kilometer).

By car and according to Google Maps, it's only one and a half hours from Hamburg and two from Berlin. There's also quite a bit of tourism infrastructure in the "Müritz" area east of SZW, so maybe there's still some subsidy money to be extorted there.

Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.

Quoting aloges (Reply 13):By car and according to Google Maps, it's only one and a half hours from Hamburg and two from Berlin. There's also quite a bit of tourism infrastructure in the "Müritz" area east of SZW, so maybe there's still some subsidy money to be extorted there.

There might be subsidy money to be had, sure. But the Müritz tourism market is largely domestic, and Ryanair already serves airports that are closer to Hamburg and Berlin, like LBC and BRE or SXF and CSO, respectively.

Quoting aloges (Reply 18):But we all know what happens when one of those airports stops playing FR's game: they move. So perhaps one is "acting up" and they're looking for alternatives?

Until they reach the point when they have saturated the market and there are few viable alternatives remaining, like they have done in the UK and Ireland. Then their ability to play airports head-to-head diminishes and they are willing to pay higher fees to increase loads and yields.

Bitburg is a dead as can be. The private investor who held 40 per cent of the airport turned out to be a happy-go-lucky sort of fellow and was removed a couple of weeks ago. The other major sharehold, a public authority, now wants to dispose of its shares asap. There is even talk about closing the whole place down for good.

No matter how much I look out for viable alternative airports for Ryanair I can´t find any suitable (availlable) ones that could generate sufficient passenger numbers either in itself or by cannibalizing neighbouring airports.

"Availlable" is mentionned because LHA (for sure) and IGS = Ingolstadt-Manching (potentially) would be viable and have a serious impact on surrounding airports.
But unfortunately both are "put in handcuffs" for political reasons.LHA has intentionally become restricted to 12t MTOW (to protect FKB / STR and probably a lesser degree BSL and SXB ) with every a/c movement above that weight limit needing a special permission ...
IGS is still run by the German Air Force but has a civilian part which is already used by a/c up to the size of A319 (DC Aviation) quite regularly. I don´t see the operator willing to fall on its knees because of Ryanair´s "financial requirements"...

SZW had the chance to becme the second FR airport after HHN, but the land oif MeckPomm refused to fork out DM 500.000 for advertising the splendid nature out there. IMHO it waqs a mistake, FR would have loaded millions of pax there meanwhile and LBC might not have been chosen as a destination. That was back in the late 90s. SZW still dreams the dream of the innpocent. The county manager understood it but he did not have the funds then. Pumping money over the years hoping that this questionale Chinese "investor" finally pays up was much more expensive. Hopefully, Pang will not go Peng.

At least FRA would need to build a dedicated terminal, the regular ops simply do not fit the requirements

Forgot to mention:
Distance HAM - SZW is about the same as FRA / HHN. BER - SZW is a bit far bit for the northern and north western parts of Berlin absolutely OK compared to LEJ and it might really be that once BER is opened MOL does not agree to the conditions to be there, at least he would probably scale down ops. Or BER offers to maintain the old SXF terminal which would solve a couple of other problems.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 25):It is earmarked to become the new government terminal, so no chance.

They should really pull the emergency brake and keep TXL open as a government airport with space for general/business aviation.

That would solve even more problems they have in Berlin The whole concept for the Berlin airports was flawed from the beginning and thanks to the delays they have a short window of opportunity to gett ehri act right.

Closing THF was a mistake already, closing TXL will be bitterly regretted in 20 years or less. The problem is that the punks who run the show now won't be in office then.

I am not sure whether there is something "too exotic" for Ryanair. Vatry, Altenburg, Targu Mures, Bydgoszcz, Dôle? Some of these places hardly have a supermarket and a petrol station (exaggerating to make my point), but Ryanair makes/made money flying there.

So in Germany, whilst I agree that GWT and HDF are "geographically challenged" and are therefore not natural candidates, there are still other airports out there in the middle of nowhere: Neubrandenburg, Schwerin, Braunschweig, Hof (short runway?), Friedrichshafen, Kassel, Saarbrücken, Zweibrücken, Lahr...

Neubrandenburg is a good candidate but they would have to fight the Barndenburg government.

Lahr is possible but they are in receivership as far as I know, most important they do not have a license for passenger scheduled flights, Only ad hoc, unlikely the Green government changes its mind about such evil matters.

Zweibrücken will not get marketing funds, the state government will hjave trouble enough to maintain the status for HHN

saarbrücken, around the corner, might do that.

Parchim - might be, but the MeckPomm did not fork out money in 1999, doubtful that they do now, same for RLG in the same state.

Kassel - no, neither the present government nor a possibloe future government will make marketing payments. Although, they have a tough boss and she's a very charming lady.

Hof is for ATR72 and the like only

Friedrichshafen - No, same state and argument as Lahr

Braunschweig - may be, but does VW really want that neighbour for their executive fleet? The other question is, does MOL want the LBA to watch every flight from their office?

Quoting mozart (Reply 29):I am not sure whether there is something "too exotic" for Ryanair. Vatry, Altenburg, Targu Mures, Bydgoszcz, Dôle? Some of these places hardly have a supermarket and a petrol station (exaggerating to make my point), but Ryanair makes/made money flying there.

Both are island airports with hardly any outbound traffic (lack of population). They are strictly (low volume) seasonal, high-end inbound markets. Both airports are not interested in attracting Ryanair customers as there is no spare capacity on the islands anyway (at least in GWT's case). Plus there is resistance against scheduled air services anyway in the region.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 31):Neubrandenburg is a good candidate but they would have to fight the Barndenburg government.

But why? Is Brandenburg building/upgrading another airport in the northern Kreisen? Does Ryanair want incentives from the airport administration or even from MV?
I honestly don't see all the potential. Perhaps it only becomes viable because of the distances. I guess that they have to thank the fact that the Stettin airport is not next to the border.

The COO of Ryanair, Michael Cawley gave a lecture at the University of Cologne Business School earlier this week, as well as an interview to a local paper (link here, for those who can read German)
According to Mr. Cawley, Ryanair sees a lot of potential in Cologne, comparable to Manchester and Barcelona. Ryanair plans to add flights in CGN, and a more significant expansion after 2014, when the fleet size starts increasing to a projetced total of 405 airframes.

I assume, with your question you are trying to insinuate CGN may not be a good choice and prone to failure. Easyjet started to serve CGN in the summer of 2004, with one daily flight each to EMA, LPL and LGW. 10 years later they fly twice daily from CGN to LGW. In the same time they opened and closed a base in neighboring DTM. They also started to fly out of DUS, but haven' grown there much either.

I think Easyjet's lack of growth in the area has more to do with Easyjet itself than with the region's viability. While Ryanair also uses the trial and error principle and has no qualms shutting down a route if it does not make money within a given timeline, Ryanair has shown a lot more talent, when it comes to the development of new markets. As far as Cologne is concerned, they started with 2 routes in 2012, and currently fly to 4 destinations. The projected number of passengers for CGN is 340,000 in 2013 - which is already in line with Hahn, where approx. 32 routes produced a passenger volume of 2,800,000 in 2012.

Any regional airport where AB has pulled down (or exited altogether) recently due to their restructuring would be a good candidate.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 32):HAJ would be good. Is there actually any chance of HAM being likely? This would be my ideal.

HAJ has potential, yes. Not HAM, too high cost for FR and in no need of FR flights to grow. Expansion at LBC would be nice though, it would help a lot if they start construction on the already approved rwy extension.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 31):Neubrandenburg is a good candidate but they would have to fight the Barndenburg government.

Erm. Why?
Neubrandenburg, even though misleading, is not in Brandenburg, but in MV.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 31):Parchim - might be, but the MeckPomm did not fork out money in 1999, doubtful that they do now, same for RLG in the same state.

To be honest, I think RLG has a really good chance.

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 38):Quoting flyingalex (Reply 12):
.......SZW is in the middle of nowhere even by Ryanair standards.

That is close to an insult!!!

No it isn't. Parchim seriously is in the middle of nothing. Absolutely nothing.

I've flown to all those three airports while at Pilot Training in RLG last winter. RLG has a big potential, even more so now that Germania is doing so incredibly bad that I doubt they will continue RLG in the long run. Parchim, even though nice and sweet for occasional flight training, is not an airport with a business model. It really is in the middle of nowhere (and with Lübeck so clsoe by and already served by FR, I doubt even more it's going to happen). And Neubrandenburg can surely be marketed as Berlin North or something similar, but I know from one of my former Flight Instructors living in the area and being involved in the management of Brandy, that the authorities are thinking about closing down the airport. Cost-cutting. Not a good way to start for FR.
To put it in one sentence. If in the far north-east of Germany another FR base is going to open up, my 100 bucks are on RLG.

// You know you're an aviation enthusiast when you look at your neighbour's cars and think about fleet commonality.

Quoting Semaex (Reply 46):Erm. Why?
Neubrandenburg, even though misleading, is not in Brandenburg, but in MV.

I may get this mixed up, but my memory tells me that Berlin and Brandenburg made sure no airport in the vicinity can become a threat to their single airport nirwana. The fact the Neubrandenburg is in MeckPomm does not keep the duett to ask for the friendly help of their collegue.

Quoting Semaex (Reply 46):To be honest, I think RLG has a really good chance.

Quoting Semaex (Reply 46):No it isn't. Parchim seriously is in the middle of nothing. Absolutely nothing.

Nope, RLG is too remote. parchim is between HAM and BER in a relatively good location, Now, neither places are a bit more than "nothing", At least concerning HAM I strongly oppose.

Parchim to HAM is not much farther ham FRA to HHN and HHN is in the boonies as well. If MewckPomm had approved the advertising subsid

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 47):Nope, RLG is too remote. parchim is between HAM and BER in a relatively good location, Now, neither places are a bit more than "nothing", At least concerning HAM I strongly oppose.

That is true, but I doubt if FR is going to open up a base in this area they are going to promote it as "Hamburg" or "Berlin".
Keep in mind, they already have LUC to catch Hamburg traffic. Not sure what gateway they suppose Berlin is for.
In any case. I believe FR has the capibility to make Rostock/Warnemünde/Rügen work, at least in the summer season. But then the obvious choice is RLG, where all the infrastructure they need is already in place.
In fact I just remember having seen a couple of Ryanair representatives walking around the "Terminal" sometime at the end of January.

// You know you're an aviation enthusiast when you look at your neighbour's cars and think about fleet commonality.

I think it is obvious that Ryanair's more recent strategy is to fly from what can be seen as "tertiary" airports (CGN, NUE, DTM, FMO, BRE) and that they are no longer focused to expand their bases in remote locations (such as HHN, NRN) or opening up airports with no scheduled services. Given that, FR's prime targets should be adding HAJ and DRS and expanding at the above mentioned-airports. I think they will also move into secondary airports (the likes of DUS, HAM, STR) sooner than later, pretty much like they have already done in the UK. In that case, HAM will be a prime target. I disagree with the view that HAM is not in the draw. HAM has lost almost 8 per cent passengers in 1Q13 and is under significant pressure compared to other German airports of similar size as they have already lost a large airberlin presence and are about to loose Lufthansa branded services to all destinations other than MUC and FRA.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 49): I disagree with the view that HAM is not in the draw. HAM has lost almost 8 per cent passengers in 1Q13 and is under significant pressure compared to other German airports of similar size as they have already lost a large airberlin presence and are about to loose Lufthansa branded services to all destinations other than MUC and FRA.

Agree that HAJ and DRS are top of the list, but disagree about HAM as a target. It's not the kind of airport FR would fly to. LBC is already very conveniently placed to serve the region - not your typical middle-of-nowhere FR airport, it's not much further from Hamburg than MUC is from Munich. If anything, I would see FR expanding services out of LBC. They could even use the promise of added service to try to finally push through the planned runway extension, which is one of LBC's handicaps.

I am not so sure. Ryanair has never expanded at LBC like they have at HHN or NRN. LBC only ever had a token presence which, in my view, shows that it has never been able to sell itself as Hamburg's LCC airport. If Ryanair can strike a deal with HAM, I am sure they will set up shop there without thinking twice.

In my view, FRA and MUC are pretty much the only airports that will be off-limits for Ryanair in the mid-term future because of high costs and no interest from the airports' side. DUS is a special case because of its slot issues. but the rest? Ryanair nowadays flies from airports such as MAN, MAD or BCN. Don't see why HAM or STR would not fit into that picture.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 50):Agree that HAJ and DRS are top of the list, but disagree about HAM as a target. It's not the kind of airport FR would fly to.

I wouldn't rule it out. In the UK, FR opened a base at MAN (third busiest airport nationwide) despite falling out with the airport a few years previously AND having an established base 45km away at LPL. Similar story with BCN e.t.c. Ryanair aren't averse to principal airport if the conditions are right and they see a large market in reach. So far they've focused on secondary airports in Germany, but in time they may move into larger airport like they have done in e.g. the UK, Ireland and Spain.