The fashions in statistics: how long do teams go between trophies?

Chris Geczy and Tony Attwood

How long without a trophy?

We know how long the wait has been for Arsenal, but is this usual, or unusual?

There are still some of us who remember a previous run – or at least the end of it. It ended in 1969/70 with the Fairs Cup. It started 16 years earlier after winning the first division in 1953. Worse during that time we didn’t even reach the Cup Semi-Finals once – not once! – and had one (only one) top four finish.

Such things happen, and one can only be happy that the club kept itself together during that spell and prepared for the three trophies of 1970 and 1971.

What started that question for both of us was Chris’ comment after reading Roy Keane’s autobiography, in which Keane points out that Manchester United had a 26 year dry spell which ended with the likes of Keane, Cantona, Bruce, Ince, Robson, Giggs playing to get them out of that run.

Indeed Chris recommends reading that biography because of the account of agents, leaks to the press about transfers etc and the historical perspective shown.

So armed with these thoughts the two of us went a-searching and we found this on the 606 website. A list of the longest spell for each of the current Premier League clubs without a trophy.

Now the first thing to observe in this chart is that quite a few of these runs come from the earliest days of the club. Chelsea for example were formed in 1905 and didn’t achieve anything until winning the league in 1955 with a certain Ted Drake as manager. (Nice to see the old boys doing well).

Arsenal broke their duck in 1930 when Herbert Chapman won the FA Cup, and set the club up for a glorious run which was only interrupted by the National Socialists in Germany.

Although Manchester United’s longest run with nothing happening included the year after moving into Old Trafford until just after the second world war, they had another downward turn between the 1966/7 season and 1992/3 – 26 years without being league champions.

But of course there is another way of looking at this – how long since the club was relegated? Manchester United was last relegated in 1973/4. Manchester City were relegated in 2001 and before that 1996, and before that 1983, Chelsea 1988 and 1979, Tottenham 1977…

Or this way round: how many years since a club won the league? With Tottenham it is 52 years. If they don’t win the league this season it will be 53 years, although regulars at White Hart Lane will have seen the league won twice on their ground in the meanwhile.

Or try this: the number of times a club has won the top league measured against the number of times they have played in that league. With that Manchester United are the top side winning 22% of all the seasons they have played in the top division. Liverpool are second with 18% and Arsenal third with 14%.

Now this begins to show us the problem with this type of stats. The press and their allies the AAA love to play the 8-year story because it is simple. No research is needed. You just say it. But it is just one statistic among so many, and much depends on your sense of perspective.

All clubs rise and fall – if they didn’t then winning things would be meaningless. During Liverpoo’s 1980s run it looked like they would never falter – until George Graham took us all to Anfield.

We could even try stats this way: Everton have 110 years in the top division against our 96, but our run of 87 consecutive seasons since 1919 in the top division is unparalleled. (Interestingly some people still make a bit of a fuss about Arsenal’s election to the first division in 1919, and the Arsenal History Blog offer of £100 to anyone who can find any proof of anything underhand remains unclaimed. I suppose we could make a point about Tottenham finishing 7th in the Southern League and then getting elected to the Football League while those above them did not and say there was something fishy there. Or perhaps look to the way in which Leeds were thrown out of the league part way into the 1919/20 season, with Port Vale taking over not only their future fixtures but their points thus far, with Leeds then reforming as Leeds Utd and coming back in the next season. But such events were typical of the era).

The point is it all depends on where you place the importance and how long a perspective you want to take. In 2019 it looks like we will celebrate 100 years in the first division – as I mentioned above, no one else comes near that.

It is all a question of how much you are led by the media and their choice of easy stories.

Of course we want Arsenal to win things, ideally all of them, all at once. But dips happen, and all clubs of stature bounce back.

Footnote: just in case you fascinated not by events of the last eight years but rather the events of 1919, there is an index to the many articles written on the topic here If you just want one, try this one – it is just about the most comprehensive piece on the promotion ever written.

61 comments to The fashions in statistics: how long do teams go between trophies?

Its one thing to accept that a trophy drought happens every now and then but that does not mean we should stop trying to win. At the moment, we are not seriously trying. How long has it been since we were serious title contenders? And I mean “seriously” not “hopefully” or “luckily” or “with god’s grace”. I mean “we mean business” type.

Yet more loser talk. How can you be this complacent when we have £150m in the ban (check Swiss Ramble & accounts). Also check fansforum on arsenal.com and you will see that 85% of fans think we will not win the title. 50% think we will finish 5th or lower. And yet you continue to peddle the myth that all is well. Iceberg? I see no iceberg!

Its a good thing you added the link at the bottom about the ‘Real Story’ as to what happened in 1919. As I was reading it I thought ‘oh this will be funny’ to read all the Spud fans having a crack at us saying we rigged it.. haha they want to believe we rigged it cos it is the easy thing to repeat and have a dig, regardless of if it is true of course..
COYG!

The issue would not be such a glaring one if we did not have a manager who proved himself capable of winning trophies. I’m sure this is why the trophy drought is such an obsession with some. Certainly some question why a club the size of Arsenal continues to employ a manager who has not moved the club forward in eight years. Now it seems we are flush with cash, although some remain convinced we have had plenty for a while, and seem almost paralyzed by our wealth. If things do not move forward or worse, for instance we finish fifth, then serious questions need to be asked for there is no reason why a club as rich as Arsenal cannot compete with the likes of Spuds and Pool.

I strongly believe we’ll buy a few players in the next few weeks and I think we would have done so before but Wenger has been poleaxed by the huge money needed to buy super quality. I do think prices for footballers are crazy and I understand Wenger’s reluctance to spend big but unfortunately that’s how it is and it may not change for some time.

Elkieno – attack the messenger as per usual. Why not think for yourself?

We have cash of 150m in the bank. Rest of prem has 181m COMBINED.

Yet to a team they have all made signings. We have chosen not to.

Wenger is the reason why so many fans now actively are angry. We can compete for any player. We choose to sign French L2 players for free. Thats not competing in modern football. It’s a recipe for mediocrity.

Apart from the middle to late 1930’s, Arsenal FC have always experienced troughs and peaks in the search for success. Since that time, not once has the Club managed to retain a championship trophy.
From time immemorial, the faith of its true supporters has been sorely tested by defeats clutched from the jaws of victory and vice versa.
Being an Arsenal fan is not a following for the faint-hearted, nevertheless the Club is admired worldwide for its entertaining and exciting football and its sense of fair play.

Because Doofus has just repeated verbatim, insults and all, what he told me on a different thread, I hereby present my reply there:

Doofus,

Your critical thinking skill is not good enough for you to be calling people lemmings.

Yes, for a team without a trophy in 8 years and with those ‘clueless’ people at the helm, I wonder how they get deals that you so eagerly ascribe our financial standing to. You mean these companies just hand over their cash to some club in decline with a clueless manager and a team of deadwoods?

Think dude, think!

Yes, you hate Wenger and I know there may be times when you think you get hungry only because he is still the manager of AFC but what you cannot do is have it both ways. Arsene Wenger is the goose that lays the golden eggs. His relative steady success and frugal management has helped Arsenal’s place as a club in world football to continue to rise, even without trophies.

And when you throw out numbers like £150m and £180m, did it ever occur to you that the club spends on other important things apart from “splashing the cash on 3 to 4 world class players”? These money are for multi-year contracts that are spent over years on running the club. But hey, we just got some money, let spend it right now!

Still very glad that your magical acumen is limited to bamboozling lemmings like me on the Internet. I am grateful for little things like that.

Opinion polls on who is going to win a game or how a club is going to do in a season are meaningless. I can’t recall anyone predicting at the beginning of last season that Newcastle would struggle to avoid relegation going by how they finished in 2011/12 season. Also, since Man City got their Sheik, Arsenal has been predicted to fall out of top-4 by pundits and by polls. Never happened but that has not stopped them from repeating it.

And for someone throwing the word “lemming” about, isn’t it funny that Doofus’ perspective on how Arsenal is going to do this season is based on what others think – in a poll?

That’s what I hate about the CL, that it has created this crazy notion that fourth is the same as finishing first for the reward is the same, a place in the bloated competition known as the CL. Fourth is now a wonderful achievement. Nonsense of course and if the CL actually operated under it’s correct moniker only the best would be winning it but instead we have teams that can finish 20 pts below the league winners and still partake in the CL. Money, that’s why the competition has been corrupted.

This is not a tirade against any team that finishes in the top four, it’s a broadside against the greedy people who ruined the European Cup and by doing so diminished our league and other European leagues.

@Doofus,
You ask why we haven’t spent the money Ivan says is avalable.
The answer is because the sales haven’t ended yet and we are still looking.
There is no timing laid down within the Window for sales to take place.
As Arsene has often said, transfers require agreement by so many folk, it’s a wonder they ever take place.
By 1st September all will be well.
Trust me, I’m a doctor. (I’m not really but it sounds comforting).

I know that calling me sanctimonious is your way of saying that I am smarter than you and that I have conviction, you know, not basing what I think on opinion polls. I’ll take the compliment. Thanks.

Your deficiency in critical thinking rears its ugly head again though:

“Sponsors paying top dollar expect top results. 4th isn’t a trophy for them. Puma for eg will want a return.”

But you’ve just quoted mega deals that the club did recently. Are these corporations being run by stupid people or what? We’ve not won anything in 8 years and they are still giving us money: why?

Why would they sign such deals with a team of ‘losers’ like Arsenal? Maybe, just maybe their criteria for success is different from yours and more in line with mine? Don’t you think? Please take some time to think. It will do you some good.

Apologies about my inaccuracy though, all you AAA sound alike to me 🙂 I have heard your comrades call the board and Gazidis clueless several times. Sorry about the mix up but my main point stands.

It’s getting pretty obvious that Wenger will wait until the very last day before making any signings. Probably to get the players cheaper but this is just an awful strategy. We have money now and can afford to take our time and build a team over the summer that can compete with the best. Why disrupt our current squad and have new players coming in on the last day, who are going to need at least a month or two before really getting comfortable in their new surroundings and by then it might already be too late to get a strong position in the league. What is going on mr. Wenger?

@ Doofus,
No, what I’m saying is that none of us have a clue as to what goes on behind the scene on transfers. The signings that are lost at the last minute over a minor disagreement, the failed medicals, the wife’s reluctance to live in London…..the list is endless. But poor old Arsene gets the blame, regardless.
We have our targets (and our back-ups) like we have EVERY Window and we are working away through them.

To all who think Arsenal are not serious enough to compete in any competition or try and strengthen their squad?
You are right? Arsenal intentionaly to not want to win any competition or buy any players? And purposely go and wind up their fans by entering negotiations then pull out?

What planet do you live on? You don’t owe the club anything and the club don’t owe you a thing?
Can’t stand the heat? Then get out of the kitchen?

Doofus
The vibe I’m getting is mate, that the blame is squarely been laid at the feet of Arsenal? Nobody knows what’s going on as regarding transfers and buying all the best players doesn’t guarantee that you will win?

@Tony. If I understand you correctly then your list big clubs that have had long waits for a trophy is good but I think not complete.

I was surprised to see Wigan included in your list.

It was not that long ago that Wigan were a non- league club. The Liverpool Evening Echo one evening ran the the headline ‘It’s MacWigan the Brave’ there followed a report that Wigan had applied to join the Scottish League Division 3.

So I don’t see listing Wigan in your list as a ‘big club ‘that has had a long wait to win a trophy’.

What might be an interesting read when in the world of football ‘Summer time the living is not easy.’ is an article about small clubs that have won a trophy way above their station in the football world. We have been a victim of two of them and it hurts. 🙁

I appreciate the time and hard work you give to promoting the truth about the club I love so much. Thank you.

Doofus,
I had no intention to participate in this discussion but your comments require some responses. You state that the squad has 16 players and is two injuries away from youth team players. If I recall very well you and your group went hysteria when a one Bennard signed for Shakter despite having been linked to Arsenal. Why is it that you want the club to pay 21 million pounds for a youth player if you do not want such players to play for the first team.

I reckon you do not recognize Akpom, Zalalam, Gnabry, Berrelin, Olson, Martinez and Eisfield as members of the first team based on their ages. Surprisingly in seasons past you have been asking the club to buy equally young players like Eriksen and Nymar. If this thinking is to be properly analyzed it will be fair to conclude and you and you ilk believe quality exist everywhere except at Arsenal.

The consequences of this unfortunate mindset have been disrespect for the players employed by Arsenal. Examples of such players include Song, Eboue, Geouvihno and recently Ramsey. If I were a football club i would rather have not fans than having fans with this pathetic mindset.

‘Just spend some fucking money.’ Honestly judging by that statement, people have lost their minds, it’s also usually used in conjunction with ‘the market is overinflated, we may not like it but thats the reality so just spend some fucking money.’ That’s just crazy, insane, mental, whole countries are failing and some bright spark is saying just spend some fucking money.

And since when did a sugar daddy become a benefactor, benefator my ass. So Abramovic steals state resources, murders a few people in Russia, after being chased by Putin he then comes to England buys a club then throws a massive party with live characters for around 8 years and guess what there is no outrage, no demonstrations, nothing happens instead we kiss his ass and call him a benefactor.

So back to arsenal!
The media, liverpool and a whole host of folks are outraged we pledging 1pound more than Luis Suarez’s contract prescribes well frankly I’m more outraged with the 40 million behind the 1 pound, that is just (is there a better word than ridiculous, no there isn’t) ridiculous for a footballer and guess what there are other footballer’s even more expensive.

I know the media don’t like Arsenal but I thought you liked Manchester Utd, well guess what at these prices they can’t compete either so stop praising sugar daddies. Man Utd has not bought anybody either.

As regards the 150m cash reserves. I’m guessing that figure is close to the actual figure. It was 123m in November and we have had some increase in commercial income since then. But we’ve also had expenses (Walcott’s contract, Monreal’s purchase

But even if it’s true, 150m cash reserves does not mean the club can spend 150m pounds cash. The amount is boosted due to the cyclical nature of income. Arsenal receive TV money and season ticket renewals early in the season. (not the year, this makes a difference in accounting) This money has to be used to run the club throughout the year. Paying wages etc. Although of course, th club will earn some more money every matchday.

In addition, the club has to pay something like 20m every year for the stadium. They also have a certain amount of money that cannot be spent according to the terms of the debt. This still leaves Arsenal with a lot of cash on hand, but the 150m pound figure is misleading, as I think it is meant to be.

Doofus, those stats you put at the start about fans predicting that we will finish 5th. As I recall the number was even higher last season. Which I suppose proves that like journalists fans know little

Money has ruined the competition. I agree. But the CL money isn’t the only problem. We’ve moved forward as a club under Wenger. You can choose to ignore the off field aspects if you want, but that doesn’t change them. You yourself show your understanding of how money affects the output on the field, but you only mention it in the aspect which shows Arsenal as not being up to competing (4th is like winning title).

Anyway. I see progression in what Arsenal are doing. We’ve built a stadium with long term deals which held us in check while other clubs grew. We bought young and paid on potential to try and compete. (We did do this, and at the least met minimum requirement of getting CL) We’ve moved on from the so called ‘project youth’ 3 years ago by buying players of a greater age with less resale value, as well as a higher profile. We’ve built club’s infrastructure. We’ve tied most of our players to long term contracts and paused the exodus. We’ve also now let a lot of unwanted players go both from the first team and the reserves. The next step is to buy the players we need, with the new resources we have from increased income streams. It’s a plan which has faced setbacks and needed constant readjustments, but it is a plan that has largely worked and allowed us to progress. People only see the end product and want that. The frustration comes from waiting for all that goes into winning to be put in place. We’ve done that. Over the next few years, Arsenal will be back to the top because we will finally have the resources to do so.

@Doofus
I would be pretty sure that Suarez would have the greater impact.
However Suarez was a promising youngster a while ago and I am prepared to wait for Akpom and others like him to flourish and reach the Suarez standard if they can. I actually enjoy and get greater satisfaction from seeing the team and players evolve, even if it means we do not win anything. The enjoyment and challenge for me is seeing how close we can get to the spend, spend, spend teams.I would get no satisfaction or fulfillment doing it the Chelsea way and that is why I love Wenger and his philosophy.
I understand you prefer the Chelsea way, but you have to realize that Arsenal most probably are never going to go down that road even after Wenger has gone.
I think you must resign yourself to the fact that you may have many more years of moaning and complaining to endure.
I look forward to the new season with great optimism, COYG.

well, i guess when a team as rich as we are is going 8/24/37/50/65 years without a trophy, it wont be out of plAce for that team’s fans to stop comparibg themselves with the likes of today’s man utd,chelsea, barca etc. and also not complain when their players jump ship for the aforementioned teams.
its either being deluded or confused to excuse a teams failings with comparison of clubs’ record trophyless(failure) duration, and still refuse to accept that the club is failing

Shard – you sum up the off-field achievements and the transition away from Project Youth very well.

The only problem is that becoming a bigger club financially has no meaning to the fans unless its converted into success on the field.

We all want the club to be secure first and foremost but after that the investment into the team comes next.

I think thats why the last few years have brought about such a divide in the fan base.

Throughout the 2000’s we were told that the building of the stadium would not effect the competitiveness of the side but it did. Now we are being told that money is available but its not forthcoming (although the reasons may be legitimate).

Its not just a question of standing still, its a question about the integrity of the club and the messages they give out.

To pick up on something you said, I don’t believe the exodus of players has ended at all – its just paused. Wilshere will get a full season hopefully but unless he sees a team competing for a trophy (not 4th) he will be like Brady and Fabregas before and leave with a heavy heart because the club’s ambitions don’t match his own.

I used the word ‘paused’ for the exodus too 🙂 But with increased financial strength, and long term contracts, in theory, it means we can retain our players better. How that works out in practice is a different matter which depends not just on the intentions of the club, but the circumstances as well.

And circumstances is exactly what changed in the 2000s. Plus it should also be kept in mind that the club has some compulsions in terms of what it can say and what it can’t. If there was a way to give fans all the information they want, without it being disseminated (and likely, distorted) elsewhere, I’m sure the club would have taken it. But that doesn’t exist.

So it remains incumbent on the fans to apply critical thinking to all statements they read. Even from the club. The club have always said they’ve had money. This wasn’t a lie per se. But they have never before intimated that they are rich and have financial capabilities like they have done now. It is up to the fans to understand that there is no way the club could have said its resources are very low. That they need to sell players to pay off the stadium. It would cause more problems.

@ Mick – Thanks for the link -my headache went away ! But then
I have the latest Troll avoidance mouse which will only take me to those sensible comments ! Ergo – no headaches !
Anyway that delicious ‘beating ‘ reminded me of an old joke .
The husband tells the wife that in future ,whenever he wants to have sex , he would squeeze her left breast twice .The wife asks him what if she’s having a ‘headache’ and didn’t want to. The husband says ,” Oh ! That’s easy , just tug on my dick two..hundred times !”

I love the fact that you choose to enjoy Arsenal in your way. We all have our own standard to enjoy supporting this club and I think I’m happy with the way you shared.

There is no right or wrong in choosing your way, only happy and unhappy. Since there is enough trouble we have to face in our lives, I don’t think we should add one more to them while its original purpose is to make us happy.

If anyone find himself unhappy over his supporting for Arsenal, well, it’s your curse.

As one of the few supporters who can recall the heady days of the 1930’s, when many a piece of silverware glistened from the cabinets in the Arsenal Boardroom, I cannot join the present general mourning over the lack of trophies since our jammy win on penalties in the 2005 FA Cup.
Apart from the EPL, luck will always play an immense part in all the remaining competitions e.g. Wigan, this year’s FA Cup winners followed by relegation.
In my view, what is of immense value is our annual entry into the CL, the importance of which cannot be over-estimated.
There are actually some fans of Arsenal who would prefer winning the Carling Cup, to playing in the CL!
Of course winning a trophy can be considered a bit of icing on the cake….but it is NOT the cake.
The “cake” is playing attractive, exciting football known and admired the world over. Very close to 100% of clubs throughout the globe envy our success, yet some of our support close to home is still reluctant to praise our achievements every season.
While we must never rest on our laurels, we have attained so much since Arsene’s appointment. We need, though, to give full support to every team wearing an Arsenal shirt. Abandon the “fickle” attitude with which we have long been associated.
Be proud of our great Club’s past and look forward to its future success.