Emmy will be Mad for Men, Modern Family

Sunday is Emmy night, worth watching just to see if Conan O’Brien pulls NBC’s pants down if he wins for his seven month stint hosting The Tonight Show.

There are other awards up for grabs, of course. Most of the big categories seem fairly tight this year, making predictions especially stupid and pointless–something we specialize in here at TVFMF:

Outstanding Drama Series

SHOULD WIN: Dexter and Breaking Bad had electrifying finales, but Mad Men (starring Jon Hamm, above right) ended a marriage, dissolved an ad agency and assassinated a president.

WILL WIN: Lost, for six years viewers will never get back. Now that’s drama! Emmy loves it when shows end so this one’s a shoe-in. Also nominated as TV’s Best Drama: True Blood, Dexter, The Good Wife, Mad Men and Breaking Bad.

Outstanding Comedy Series

SHOULD WIN: The other week I was watching TV episodes off the monitor in the seat back of an airplane. Earphones on, I was laughing out loud and didn’t realize it, until the flight attendant stopped by. “Oh, no wonder,” she said. “You’re watching Modern Family.”

WILL WIN: Modern Family (featuring Ty Burrell, left), with points to Curb for those funny Seinfeld reunion shows. Not funny: omitting The Big Bang Theory from this category.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

SHOULD WIN: Matthew Morrison should have been saluted here, instead of in comedy, after that terrifyingly real marital meltdown scene that yanked Glee off a campy cliff last December. Not even Morrison could save it from the giddy karaoke excess it devolved into in the spring.

WILL WIN: Meth actor Bryan Cranston (right), scary good as always as pushed too far Walter White in Breaking Bad. If he wins it will be his third Best Actor Emmy in a row. Also nominated: Jon Hamm, Kyle Chandler, Hugh Laurie, Michael C. Hall and Matthew Fox.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

SHOULD WIN: A few seasons ago, Julianna Margulies (left) was mis-cast as an unsympathetic superwoman in the klunker Canterbury’s Law. Perfectly cast as The Good Wife, she brought grace, edge and courage to a complicated character.

WILL WIN: Damages law diva Glenn Close (but no cigar). Other nominees: January Jones, Kyra Sedgwick, Mariska Hargitay and Connie Britton.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

SHOULD WIN: Jim Parsons (right), The Big Bang Theory. Parsons is the breakout star of what is now TV’s hottest comedy (especially in Canada). Sheldon Cooper is a narcissist know-it-all and yet Parsons finds a way to make him sympathetic if not quite lovable. That’s quantum physics.

You can find a full list of Emmy nominees here. You can also find a whole Emmy category full of critics weighing in on who will win over at TV Worth Watching, David Bianculli’s newly redesigned on-line magazine of all things television. It’s critic-o-licious!