Racetrack whispers are getting louder as the clock ticks closer to jump time at 3:00pm for this year’s edition of the iconic $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m).

Earlier in the week all the money looked to be on the race favourite Admire Rakti, Tomoyuki Umeda’s Heart’s Cry seven-year-old looking to win Japan its second Melbourne Cup after the success of Delta Blues back in 2006.

He won the Caulfield Cup last time out and is now out to emulate the last Spring Cups’ double winner Ethereal from 2001.

But while he proved the best horse on the day with the biggest weight (58kg) in the Caulfield Cup, the punters are a little more wary today as he goes up to 58.5kg with a penalty that no horse has carried to a Melbourne Cup victory since the Bart Cummings-trained Think Big (1975).

So what’s the late mail tip if not the favourite?

The Money Trails Says…

The punters are coming hard and fast for former Irish jockey turned trainer Johnny Murtagh to win his first Melbourne Cup (in his first attempt) with a win from one of his two runners, Mutual Regard. This Hernando six-year-old is the right age down under, the past four Melbourne Cup winners having been six-year-old, and he boasts the best 3200m record of the field with two wins and two seconds from five starts over the two miles. Last year’s winning hoop Damien Oliver rides shooting for his fourth victory and should get a gun run from barrier 11. Won the Ebor Handicap last time out, and while history shows no European has won the Cup since Vintage Crop (1993) without a previous run in the lead-up down under, the punters are saying the hoodoo will be broken.

The Bookies Say…

While the big money bets have eased off on Robert Hickmott and owner Lloyd Williams’ sole remaining chance in the race, the bookies know better and know the Melbourne Cup form on this Reset seven-year-old is truly excellent. The Cox Plate has been the final lead-up for more Melbourne Cup winners in the past 10 years than any other race and Fawkner is the only hope this year to have run in the WFA classic when a slashing second to Irish raider Adelaide. Before that he won the Caulfield Stakes and he was sixth in this last year off a Caulfield Cup win. Will be right in the finish again having been targeted for it and barrier eight looks ideal.

The Form Says…

There is a lot to like about this Kris Lees-trained mare who won the Turnbull Stakes two back to celebrate her second Group 1 victory before a third as the beaten favourite in the Caulfield Cup. She was wide and luckless there but still very brave and narrowly beaten. Had a wide gate that day and will prefer barrier two here with Kerrin McEvoy to ride. The 53kg compared to Admire Rakti’s 58.5kg top weight is really to her advantage, mares can win this and being a four-year-old works statistically in her favour too.

So which horse will you be on to win the Melbourne Cup 2014?

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