# Adobe Inc
### NASDAQ/NGS:ADBE
View full report here!
## Summary
* ETFs holding this stock are seeing positive inflows but are weakening
* Bearish sentiment is low
* Economic output for the sector is expanding but at a slower rate
## Bearish sentiment
Short interest | Positive
Short interest is extremely low for ADBE with fewer than 1% of shares on loan. This could indicate that investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices are not currently targeting ADBE.
## Money flow
ETF/Index ownership | Negative
ETF activity is negative and may be weakening. The net inflows of $4.87 billion over the last one-month into ETFs that hold ADBE are among the lowest of the last year and appear to be slowing.
## Economic sentiment
PMI by IHS Markit | Negative
According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Technology sector is rising. The rate of growth is weak relative to the trend shown over the past year, however, and is easing.
## Credit worthiness
Credit default swap
CDS data is not available for this security.
Please send all inquiries related to the report to score@ihsmarkit.com.
Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing.
This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.

Everyone seems to love Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) stock. Call me an old fogey, but I don't get it.
At its market cap of $17 billion, investors are paying roughly 17 times expected 2018 revenue. There is an awesome growth rate of roughly 30% on the top line, but profits remain stubbornly out of sight, and analysts don't expect any this quarter, a loss of six cents per share on revenue of $314 million.
Shopify did have positive operating cash flow in its September quarter, but at $2.86 million that's nearly a rounding error. The bulk of its rising cash flow still comes from investment and financing.
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
But analysts still love the stock. There are now 29 following it, and 16 have it on their buy lists. They're expecting 71 cents per share of earnings for 2019.
I suspect they will be disappointed, as they have been disappointed by past Canadian tech stars like Corel and Blackberry (NASDAQ:BB).
### SHOP Stock Is Good at Growth
What Shopify seems to be best at is finding new merchants and selling stock.
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), for instance, pounded the table for Shopify last month just as it was completing an offering of 2.4 million shares, with limited voting rights, at $154 per share. After a week's fall for the tech wreck, those shares took off and opened for trade January 16 back at the offering price.
The offering raised about $400 million, bringing the company's cash pile to $2 billion, which it has been using to launch into new markets, acquire other companies like Sweden's TicTail, and offer loans to its merchant clients.
Shopify says its developers brought in about $2 billion in 2018, while its own revenues are approaching $1.1 billion. The app store, where shopkeepers can get things like Web-to-print product Brush Your Ideas, is Shopify's secret sauce, because it takes 20% of that revenue, and this helps it compete with rivals like Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) Magento or privately held Squarespace and BigCommerce.
But Shopify doesn't seem to have the same respect for its customers' customers. The online world is filled with scams and dodgy merchandise, and Shopify is regularly shocked, shocked by what happens to consumers in its stores.
Until recently, for instance, one of its merchants was a gun store that reportedly moved $11.4 million through a Shopify store. Shopify has also served Instagram "stars" with drop-ship scams which claim to be giving away valuable merchandise but are actually up-selling junk.
### How Big?
While Shopify stock is very volatile, it's no longer the home run it was in 2017, when it doubled in price. Over the last year it has traded for as little as $111 per share and for as much as $174, matching the volatility of the market. If you bought it just after Christmas, you look like a genius. If you bought two weeks before you look like an idiot.
Most news on Shopify involves the stock, not the company or its technology. You'll find stories asking if it's the next Amazon.Com (NASDAQ:AMZN), a millionaire maker stock.
InvestorPlace writers disagree on the company's future. James Brumley sees headwinds while Chris Lau sees another great quarter for the company.
### The Bottom Line on Shopify Stock
Maybe it's because I've been following the Internet for 40 years, but I still have a suspicion, as I wrote over a year ago, that the Shopify story is going to end in tears.
The company seems to be all about getting new customers, opening new stores, selling more apps, and not about pleasing consumers, which is the metric by which real stores, and real companies, are measured.
You may make money on Shopify with quick moves, but I don't see a long-term future here.
Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares in AMZN.
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The post The Shopify Hype Continues appeared first on InvestorPlace.

# Adobe Inc
### NASDAQ/NGS:ADBE
View full report here!
## Summary
* Bearish sentiment is low
* Economic output for the sector is expanding but at a slower rate
## Bearish sentiment
Short interest | Positive
Short interest is extremely low for ADBE with fewer than 1% of shares on loan. This could indicate that investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices are not currently targeting ADBE.
## Money flow
ETF/Index ownership | Neutral
ETF activity is neutral. ETFs that hold ADBE had net inflows of $10.88 billion over the last one-month. While these are not among the highest inflows of the last year, the rate of inflow is increasing.
## Economic sentiment
PMI by IHS Markit | Negative
According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Technology sector is rising. The rate of growth is weak relative to the trend shown over the past year, however, and is easing.
## Credit worthiness
Credit default swap
CDS data is not available for this security.
Please send all inquiries related to the report to score@ihsmarkit.com.
Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing.
This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.

Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) has never been Amazon.Com (NASDAQ:AMZN). It wasn't founded to sell consumer goods. Its cloud isn't challenging Amazon in infrastructure. And in the past six months, BABA stock has suffered a drop about two times that seen by AMZN shares.
Instead of selling raw infrastructure, Alibaba is developing software services that let companies design products for specific markets and get them through distribution channels. That's the strategy that led them recently to buy Data Artisans, a Berlin-based software company, for $103 million. Data Artisans dominates in the development of Apache Flink, an open source data processing system.
So, while Amazon sells infrastructure, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) sells a platform, in other words, Alibaba has gone up the stack, like Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), selling a unique solution.
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
### Leveraging Cheap Tech Workers
The result of Alibaba going up the stack doesn't just cut its retailers' costs and make them competitive. It also supports Chinese goods exports, and raises the value of all of Alibaba's cloud offerings, allowing it to enter western markets, starting in Europe.
The costs are higher, but so are the margins. About 40% of Alibaba's 50,000 employees are tech workers. Thanks to the bear market in tech, and the China trade war, they can now get into this cheap.
### All Eyes on Earnings
Alibaba is expected to earn $1.38 per share on revenue of $17.25 billion when it reports earnings on January 30. That would bring total revenue for the last four quarters to over $52 billion, against a market cap of $390 billion when the market opened January 11.
* 10 A-Rated Stocks the Smart Money Is Piling Into
Like the other cloud czars, including Amazon, BABA stock has had a terrible six months, the shares dropping by about a third from a high of $206 to a low of $139 per share, closing yesterday below $150. With about $3.45 per share in earnings expected for the calendar year, that's a price to earnings ratio of 43, against Amazon's 92, and Alibaba is a higher-margin operator.
The China trade war, along with rhetoric from Washington and New York about the "Chinese Communists" (executive chairman Jack Ma admits he is a party member), has helped push Alibaba's price down. But China isn't any more communist today than many other countries. It's a party-run dictatorship, but so are our "friends" in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Alibaba's home market is still growing faster than the U.S., and it has been more successful than other Chinese software companies in selling services outside its home market. Alibaba Cloud now has 55 availability zones across 19 regions , including two in the U.S.
### Get It at a Discount?
If you don't trust China and you don't like Alibaba's price, you can actually get it at a discount by buying Altaba (NASDAQ:AABA), the former Yahoo. Its primary asset is a holding of 383 million Alibaba shares, worth about $57 billion on the open market, but Altaba itself has a market cap of just $38 billion. Since it's selling out of Yahoo Japan (OTCMKTS:YAHOY) it's even more of a pure play on Alibaba stock.
* 10 Stocks You Can Set and Forget (Even In This Market)
My problem is this only gives you Alibaba stock second-hand (just like some of the items on AliExpress). Altaba has no income, and you're stuck waiting for its board to monetize the stake for you. But they do have 15% of Alibaba's common, and if Alibaba wants them out, they'll have to pay a premium to achieve that.
### The Bottom Line on BABA Stock
Alibaba today is a unique value proposition. It's not the Chinese Amazon. It's not even a "Cloud Czar" in the way of Amazon and Microsoft. And it'd be wrong to look at BABA stock as you would be shares of those others.
Alibaba is what it has always been, a software company dedicated to moving markets from the 19th to the 21st century. Like Amazon, it uses distribution and retailing for the financial scale needed to grow, and as a demonstration of what its cloud does. Beyond that, it's something completely different -- just like Alibaba stock.
Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares in BABA, MSFT and AMZN.
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The post Investors Are Wrong To Think Of Alibaba As An Amazon Analog appeared first on InvestorPlace.

Jon Fortt sits down with Pandora Co-Founder and Former CEO Tim Westergren on the sale of his creation to SiriusXM Satellite Radio for $3.5 billion. Plus -- the new "big cloud" mafia on their new alliance.

Despite the turmoil in the overall stock market, Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) has been surprisingly resilient. On Monday, Twilio stock was again flirting with a breakout over $100 per share. If it does break out and the overall markets avoid a retest of the lows, this high-growth -- and high-valuation -- stock can really take off.
* 10 Stocks You Can Set and Forget (Even In This Market)
Twilio is definitely a regret for me. As an investor, I know that we can't win 'em all and that we won't always buy at the bottom and sell at the top. With that said, picking out a stock and failing to pull the trigger on what ends up being a big winner is a tough pill to swallow.
My biggest issue with the company has always been its valuation. Nonetheless, Twilio runs an excellent business and has a lot of momentum behind it right now. Bulls are betting that it can maintain pace.
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
### Valuing Twilio Stock
Analysts expect Twilio to grow sales 58% this year to $630 million, followed by 32% growth to ~$828 million in 2019. They also expect almost 160% earnings growth this year to 11 cents a share. Forecasts call for 45% growth to 19 cents a share in 2019. Clearly, the company still touts strong growth, even if the rate is decelerating after a strong 2018.
Shares exploded after the company reported its fiscal third-quarter results in November, climbing more than 33%. Remember, this was during a time of turmoil for the stock market -- although, admittedly, the worst was yet to come. In Twilio's case, the company beat expectations and raised forecasts, giving investors confidence that Twilio had the wind at its back.
Will that continue? Clearly, some believe it will.
On Monday, Piper Jaffray analysts named Twilio a top software pick for 2019, along with Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) and Zendesk (NASDAQ:ZEN). On Tuesday, Keybanc analysts maintained their "overweight" rating, but bumped their price target from $103 to $114.
While I believe the stock can break out (assuming the market holds up going forward), there are some concerns for TWLO. Concerns like TWLO stock being up 400% since February 2018 and that net income continues to dip (despite showing positive non-GAAP earnings). There's also the fact that free-cash flow remains negative.
Again, momentum here is strong -- margins are on the rise, customer count is climbing and, obviously, revenue is moving in the right direction. But those issues are a few things to take note of for investors looking at a longer-term position.
### Trading TWLO Stock
Click to Enlarge
The trend has been from the lower left to the upper right, with resistance at $100 on the nose. You'll notice the first test of $100 came after Twilio stock's powerful post-earnings rally. The fact that investors were able to buy TWLO stock about two weeks later at pre-earnings levels should have been a flashing buy sign for the name. Unfortunately for me, I missed my chance in Twilio and will have to move on as a result.
Traders, though, can still extract some alpha. Over the last three months, Twilio stock has rallied to $100 three times now. The first two times held as resistance, so we can't rule out that possibility again. If there is resistance at the $100 level, look for a possible pullback down to the $80-$84 level. That lands TWLO stock near uptrend support and the 50-day moving average.
Should $100 give way, then we have a breakout in the name. Not that I like to buy a stock that's up ~33% in a one-month span, but pushing through $100 could pave the way to $110 or possibly higher. The issue? We need the overall markets to play ball too. After a quick post-Christmas rally, indices have already gone a fair distance in just a few trading sessions.
* 7 High-Risk Chinese ETFs to Avoid ... For Now
Regardless, Twilio stock is setting up as a solid trade -- either as a breakout candidate or a buy-on-dip name.
Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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The post Why Twilio Stock Is About to Have a Massive Breakout appeared first on InvestorPlace.

# Adobe Inc
### NASDAQ/NGS:ADBE
View full report here!
## Summary
* ETFs holding this stock are seeing positive inflows
* Bearish sentiment is low
* Economic output for the sector is expanding but at a slower rate
## Bearish sentiment
Short interest | Positive
Short interest is extremely low for ADBE with fewer than 1% of shares on loan. This could indicate that investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices are not currently targeting ADBE.
## Money flow
ETF/Index ownership | Positive
ETF activity is positive. Over the last month, ETFs holding ADBE are favorable, with net inflows of $14.97 billion. Additionally, the rate of inflows is increasing.
## Economic sentiment
PMI by IHS Markit | Negative
According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Technology sector is rising. The rate of growth is weak relative to the trend shown over the past year, however, and is easing.
## Credit worthiness
Credit default swap
CDS data is not available for this security.
Please send all inquiries related to the report to score@ihsmarkit.com.
Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing.
This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.

# Adobe Inc
### NASDAQ/NGS:ADBE
View full report here!
## Summary
* ETFs holding this stock are seeing positive inflows
* Bearish sentiment is low
## Bearish sentiment
Short interest | Positive
Short interest is extremely low for ADBE with fewer than 1% of shares on loan. This could indicate that investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices are not currently targeting ADBE.
## Money flow
ETF/Index ownership | Positive
ETF activity is positive. Over the last month, ETFs holding ADBE are favorable, with net inflows of $14.97 billion. Additionally, the rate of inflows is increasing.
## Economic sentiment
PMI by IHS Markit | Neutral
According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Technology sector is rising. The rate of growth is weak relative to the trend shown over the past year, however.
## Credit worthiness
Credit default swap
CDS data is not available for this security.
Please send all inquiries related to the report to score@ihsmarkit.com.
Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing.
This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.