What goes up must come down: Durable-goods orders set to sink

After flying high in July, orders for U.S. durable goods are likely to take a big dive in August.

But don’t pay any heed. The record 22.6% surge in orders in July was propelled mainly by a pile of new contracts for Boeing jets. Those orders tumbled in August and will drag orders into deep negative territory. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast a 17.3% in new orders.

Strip out airplanes and autos, however, and Wall Street expects orders for durable goods to rise by 1% or more in August. That would be a sign businesses outside of the volatile transportation sector have ramped up spending.

Still, it’ll take several more months of strong orders to bolster the view that companies are ready to invest more after years of skimping.

Also Thursday, initial jobless claims are expected to edge a bit higher after sinking to 280,000 in the second week of September. Claims are a proxy for layoffs.

Claims are near the lowest level since early 2006, though the nation’s 6.1% unemployment rate is more than one percentage point higher now compared to back then.