000
FXUS63 KMPX 011744
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1144 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE DRIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FLURRY CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
MIDDAY BETWEEN SHORT WAVES BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA
SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR A FEW FLURRIES BACK TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND COLDER
TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
THE LONG TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF STORM SYSTEM/NEXT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
OVER COLORADO AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT FROM KANSAS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM/160-170KTS AT 250MB. THIS ARCS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND SHOULD FOCUS BEST FRONTGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING TUESDAY PERIOD.
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA DEVELOPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY AIRMASS WILL
SATURATE. THE 00Z GFS WAS VERY BULLISH IN SATURATING THE
SOUTHWEST BY 00Z TUE. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR NOW.
THIS SHOULD SPREAD FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS MUCH OT THE CWA
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER
MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE JET STREAKS OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY AND THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST...THE BETTER
SNOW WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE EAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WC WI.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE DID TRAIL POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THEN SPREADING
INTO SC MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH EXPECTED...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS A
POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. BEING A
LATER 4TH PERIOD AND 5TH PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH ISSUANCE
AT THIS TIME. IF WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE
12Z MODEL RUNS...A BLIZZARDWATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
THE SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES MOVING
OFF OVER IOWA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WED. CLEARING THEREAFTER
WITH BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVELFLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THEREAFTER WITH A
BETTER SHOT OF A WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 CST SUN MAR 1 2015
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER HOUR OF
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY AT EAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA...AND
ARE MOST LIKELY AT AXN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE. FROM THE
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF SNOW IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR -SN DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR SN LIKELY AND BLSN POSSIBLE. WINDS S 10KTS
BECOMING NW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...ADL