Want to go to Mexico? U.S. airlines will take you

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- As long as Americans are still willing to travel to Mexico and U.S. health officials don't directly forbid it, flights will continue between the two countries -- and at a heavy discount for travelers.

The outbreak of a new lethal strain of swine flu has triggered the World Health Organization to up its alert level to 5, the second-highest notch, warning that a global pandemic is looming.

The Centers for Disease Control has urged Americans not to make unnecessary trips to Mexico, and Cuba and Argentina have put outright bans on travel to Mexico. A number of airlines and travel agencies in Canada and Britain have stopped flying to many, if not all Mexican cities, and in particular popular Mexican resort cities such as Cancun, Cozumel and Puerto Vallarta, not to mention Mexico City. The Disney, Royal Caribbean
RCL, -1.66%
and Carnival
CCL, -1.97%
cruise lines won't stop at ports in Mexico.

There are about 4,050 flights between Mexico and the U.S. each week, or an average of 575 a day. Continental Airlines Inc.
CAL, -1.93%
has by far the most flights - about 450 per week -- to the most cities -- 29 -- in Mexico.

On Friday, Continental became the first major carrier to slash its Mexico capacity in response to the falling demand. Other airlines are likely to follow that lead but, like Continental, will continue to fly and offer incentives to get people aboard.

"All the airlines are closely watching the demand levels," said Air Transport Association spokesman Peter Castelveter, who described the fall-off as "modest."

The ATA medical committee, made up of airline representatives, has had daily conference calls this week to keep one another updated on the changing events of the spread of swine flu, or what government officials are now referring to as H1N1, a particular strain of the virus. The tone of those calls has been one of discretion and awareness. "There is an abundance of caution," he said.

That was clear in Continental Chief Executive Larry Kellner's comments Friday. "Given the swift changes we are seeing in the marketplace, we need to react prudently but quickly to bring our capacity more into line with demand," he said in a statement.

The temporary cuts call for 40% fewer flights on smaller planes, which slashes the amount of seats by about 50%.

"We were already experiencing soft market conditions due to the economy, and now our Mexico routes in particular have extra weakness," Kellner said. "Our plan going forward will be to continue to monitor demand levels we are seeing and adjust our capacity and costs accordingly."

Indeed, the costs to fly to choice cities in Mexico have dropped considerably, according to Tom Parsons of Bestfares.com. Travel from Boston to Cancun, for example, is available for about $180 round trip, nearly half of what it would've cost a year ago and about $100 off its cost two months ago. "Many airlines have waived the advanced-purchase fees and are selling those seats at the lowest air fares," he said. "As long as the inventory is there, you can go."

People still want to go

AMR Corp.'s
AMR, +27.78%
American Airlines, which flies in and out of Mexico nearly 42 times a day, said many of its customers still want to fly there. "We are flying to meet that demand, even if it is somewhat reduced," said American Airlines spokesman Tim Smith.

"It is possible that the demand for travel to Mexico will decline in future days to the point that some flights are no longer necessary," he added. "If that occurs, we would take appropriate action."

Like other carriers, a Continental spokeswoman said the airline continues "to closely monitor the (flu) situation," but would not elaborate.

Of course, a federal ban on flights in and out of Mexico would change that plan drastically. But it's unlikely public health officials will close the borders.

"What public health officials have to say will determine what ultimately will happen," President Obama said at a press conference marking his 100 days in office late Wednesday.

They have told him, he said, that restricting movement over the borders is "akin to closing the barn door after the horses are out," because there are documented cases of swine flu in the U.S.

All these, however, might be moot points. Americans may choose not to go to places like Mexico City because there's not much to do there these days anyway. The country has shut down schools, public attractions, bars and restaurants. About the only thing still open are the beaches.

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