Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

Saves for America's Birthday

In honor of the holiday today, let's name the tiers after all the great things you can do on July fourth. A summer holiday is still a summer holiday, even if it comes in the middle of the week and costs you two (or more) vacation days to take advantage of.

This is what the holiday is about. Sorry, patriotism and celebrating the fallen -- this holiday is about grilling German and Italian sausages, perhaps enjoying some French fries, throwing a couple patties on the grill, and quaffing a cold beverage out in the sun. Isn't it? Okay, it's about both, but you'll spend much more time enjoying the food and drink than you will thinking about our nation's founders. I promise. And it's fine.

These closers are like a fine cheeseburger paired with a great pilsner (or soda): they'll fit your needs perfectly. Want strikeouts, risk be danged? Take Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel and enjoy a heaping spoonful of swinging Ks. Want a pitcher with a ton of leash and great control? Take Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte and sleep soundly in the hammock after your big meal.

Really this is a subset of the first July fourth activity, but it's different enough. There's swimming, mountain biking, hiking, canoeing, kayaking, even running if that's your bag. And the fourth is a great time to get out and enjoy the outdoors, even if it doesn't come with bratwurst.

Rex Brothers looks like he might be ready to go. He's finally put together a nice stretch -- only three walks in his last fifteen appearances -- that shows that he could be closer material. The problem is that Rafael Betancourt is an excellent reliever and he's on a decent contract. The Rockies have an affordable option on him next year, and they are a team that could look to contend next year. They could use Betancourt and it might take a better prospect to pry him loose than teams want to give up for a reliever. Betancourt is much less likely to go than other closers with trade rumors attached to their names.

Rafael Soriano has survived David Robertson's return and has just about a strikeout per inning. His control is a little off this year, and he's been more hittable, and a home run or four will come calling, but he's the closer for the Yankees. Save opportunities are correlated with run scoring and bullpen quality, both things that the Yankees own.

I love baseball. I watch at least a game every day. I'll watch some on the fourth. But you'll see that it's in direct conflict with tiers one and two -- you can't watch the game outside. Maybe some of y'all have a setup that allows you to do this, it's not impossible, but it's also not probable that you can enjoy the outdoors while also watching the game. That's a decision you have to make. Most of these closers make you decide what you value most.

Scott Downs got a save on July 2nd, but it was a two-inning rarity. The save before that came on June 10th. If Ernesto Frieri cedes a save per month to Scott Downs, the pairing will not be a big deal for his value. We already know that deception and arm action have turned Frieri's 93-mph fastball into an unhittable pitch that will give you more than a strikeout-and-a-half per inning. All that's worth worrying about now is Frieri's tendency to give up a walk every two innings or so. That could be a problem, but not if he keeps the strikeout rate high.

Fernando Rodney's out-of-nowhere year should continue past Kyle Farnsworth's return. Consider the fact that last year, he walked more than five times as many batters as he has this year… in fewer innings. It's a remarkable story. A change of positioning on the rubber, a new catcher known for framing pitches, and presto-bingo-bango, a pitcher throwing like he's never thrown before, all in his mid-thirties.

TOM WILHELMSEN. He's a beast. He moves up because that power hook is so nasty, but don't under-rate his fastball. Jack Moore on FanGraphs found that, in two-strike counts, Wilhelmsen has gotten more swinging strikes than balls. That's pretty amazing. There are whispers of trading Wilhelmsen -- the Mariners need to use a trade piece at some point -- but he's also under team control for a while and is really good.

Maybe some of y'all love parades. I don't. The crowds, the parking, the standing, the looking for bathrooms. I suspect it will all get worse with children to corral. Or maybe that's why people are at parades, for their children. Because they aren't doing it for themselves, right?

It's not just that Heath Bell blew the game Tuesday night by allowing a home run to Aramis Ramirez. After all, Ramirez has hit 325 over the course of his career. And it's not even that plus the blown save in St. Louis, where he gave up a home run to noted slugger Yadier Molina to allow the Cards back into a blowout. It's not even how he started the season. Or is it the fact that he's getting strike one at a below-average rate, and giving up the worst contact rate of his career, and not getting batters to reach at pitches outside the zone any more. It's not the worst ground-ball rate of his career, or the fact that he's been the beneficiary of a nice home-run suppressing park his whole career and now some of that magic seems to be running out. It's all of these things, together, that have made Bell drop a tier.

Jose Valverde is back, and he's the Tigers' closer. That doesn't mean that the wrist thing won't come back, or that his peripherals -- all at or near career-worsts -- won't come back to bite him. Tyler Clippard moves up because his team insists he's the closer even when Drew Storen comes back next week. Both of these guys are still risky.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.

Happy Birthday, America.

In honor of the holiday today, let's name the tiers after all the great things you can do on July fourth. A summer holiday is still a summer holiday, even if it comes in the middle of the week and costs you two (or more) vacation days to take advantage of.

This is what the holiday is about. Sorry, patriotism and celebrating the fallen -- this holiday is about grilling German and Italian sausages, perhaps enjoying some French fries, throwing a couple patties on the grill, and quaffing a cold beverage out in the sun. Isn't it? Okay, it's about both, but you'll spend much more time enjoying the food and drink than you will thinking about our nation's founders. I promise. And it's fine.

These closers are like a fine cheeseburger paired with a great pilsner (or soda): they'll fit your needs perfectly. Want strikeouts, risk be danged? Take Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel and enjoy a heaping spoonful of swinging Ks. Want a pitcher with a ton of leash and great control? Take Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte and sleep soundly in the hammock after your big meal.

Really this is a subset of the first July fourth activity, but it's different enough. There's swimming, mountain biking, hiking, canoeing, kayaking, even running if that's your bag. And the fourth is a great time to get out and enjoy the outdoors, even if it doesn't come with bratwurst.

Rex Brothers looks like he might be ready to go. He's finally put together a nice stretch -- only three walks in his last fifteen appearances -- that shows that he could be closer material. The problem is that Rafael Betancourt is an excellent reliever and he's on a decent contract. The Rockies have an affordable option on him next year, and they are a team that could look to contend next year. They could use Betancourt and it might take a better prospect to pry him loose than teams want to give up for a reliever. Betancourt is much less likely to go than other closers with trade rumors attached to their names.

Rafael Soriano has survived David Robertson's return and has just about a strikeout per inning. His control is a little off this year, and he's been more hittable, and a home run or four will come calling, but he's the closer for the Yankees. Save opportunities are correlated with run scoring and bullpen quality, both things that the Yankees own.

I love baseball. I watch at least a game every day. I'll watch some on the fourth. But you'll see that it's in direct conflict with tiers one and two -- you can't watch the game outside. Maybe some of y'all have a setup that allows you to do this, it's not impossible, but it's also not probable that you can enjoy the outdoors while also watching the game. That's a decision you have to make. Most of these closers make you decide what you value most.

Scott Downs got a save on July 2nd, but it was a two-inning rarity. The save before that came on June 10th. If Ernesto Frieri cedes a save per month to Scott Downs, the pairing will not be a big deal for his value. We already know that deception and arm action have turned Frieri's 93-mph fastball into an unhittable pitch that will give you more than a strikeout-and-a-half per inning. All that's worth worrying about now is Frieri's tendency to give up a walk every two innings or so. That could be a problem, but not if he keeps the strikeout rate high.

Fernando Rodney's out-of-nowhere year should continue past Kyle Farnsworth's return. Consider the fact that last year, he walked more than five times as many batters as he has this year… in fewer innings. It's a remarkable story. A change of positioning on the rubber, a new catcher known for framing pitches, and presto-bingo-bango, a pitcher throwing like he's never thrown before, all in his mid-thirties.

TOM WILHELMSEN. He's a beast. He moves up because that power hook is so nasty, but don't under-rate his fastball. Jack Moore on FanGraphs found that, in two-strike counts, Wilhelmsen has gotten more swinging strikes than balls. That's pretty amazing. There are whispers of trading Wilhelmsen -- the Mariners need to use a trade piece at some point -- but he's also under team control for a while and is really good.

Maybe some of y'all love parades. I don't. The crowds, the parking, the standing, the looking for bathrooms. I suspect it will all get worse with children to corral. Or maybe that's why people are at parades, for their children. Because they aren't doing it for themselves, right?

It's not just that Heath Bell blew the game Tuesday night by allowing a home run to Aramis Ramirez. After all, Ramirez has hit 325 over the course of his career. And it's not even that plus the blown save in St. Louis, where he gave up a home run to noted slugger Yadier Molina to allow the Cards back into a blowout. It's not even how he started the season. Or is it the fact that he's getting strike one at a below-average rate, and giving up the worst contact rate of his career, and not getting batters to reach at pitches outside the zone any more. It's not the worst ground-ball rate of his career, or the fact that he's been the beneficiary of a nice home-run suppressing park his whole career and now some of that magic seems to be running out. It's all of these things, together, that have made Bell drop a tier.

Jose Valverde is back, and he's the Tigers' closer. That doesn't mean that the wrist thing won't come back, or that his peripherals -- all at or near career-worsts -- won't come back to bite him. Tyler Clippard moves up because his team insists he's the closer even when Drew Storen comes back next week. Both of these guys are still risky.

We'll switch Jared Burton and Glen Perkins here -- Perkins got the second save in a row -- but both should be owned in the short term. Two of the three Tigers Perkins faced Tuesday night had worse numbers against lefties than righties. The same was true in Perkins' last save before that. Burton got the two before. And lefty closers are twice as rare as they should be in the history of baseball. Still, Perkins is an exciting young pitcher and he could keep the job until Matt Capps returns next week, and might take it from him later in the season, too.

With each save Casey Janssen records, and each setback Sergio Santos endures, it becomes more likely that Janssen keeps the job all year. He's more likely than any of the group behind him to keep the job all year, at least. Janssen's been successful so far, and he's been a good pitcher his whole career. It could happen.

After all, Carlos Marmol was resurrected and now looks like the no-doubt closer in Chicago. If that can happen, anything can happen.

Kyle Farnsworth got up off this list. Andrew Bailey might be next -- he's throwing from 150 feet -- but now his manager says he might not close when he returns. Bailey is better than Alfredo Aceves, though … once healthy. Drew Storen is in the same position -- he's going to head out on rehab on Thursday and might not have a closer's job waiting for him -- but he's less clearly better than the incumbent. Matt Capps is worse than the guys behind him, but he's going to make a rehab assignment this week and should be the closer when he gets back. Frank Francisco got a vote of confidence but isn't throwing yet.

Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen or Sergio Santos could end up here. We just have to see what happens once they are healthy.

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The Steals Department

Last week's rest-of-season steals leaderboard was created by a projection system that does have some input about depth charts, but doesn't know everything about a team's situation. So when it said that Tony Campana would steal 25 more bases this year, it didn't take into account that Alfonso Soriano, Bryan LaHair, and David DeJesus are all ahead of him on that Cubs depth chart. Campana will get into games as the defensive replacement, but as a lefty with some platoon split issues, he's not going to play ahead of lefties LaHair and DeJesus. Maybe he can platoon with Soriano, but Soriano is playing every day in order to build trade value. Same thing with the third guy on the list -- Eric Young. If you need steals and Dee Gordon is not out there, Ben Revere is your best bet.

If you want a deeper league pickup option, you might have to go with a platoon outfielder. In that case, a guy like Craig Gentry or Carlos Gomez or Nyjer Morgan becomes very interesting. They are all part of your traditional platoon situation. Where Campana doesn't have an obvious pattern to his playing time, you know that Gomez will play against lefties and Nyjer Morgan will play against righties. That's how you make sure that the guy you pick up is actually playing, especially when you decide to set your lineups for the weekend before you leave. Projections are useful -- they let you know what a player would do given a set amount of plate appearances -- but make sure you add your own thinking on top of them.