Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96LThe moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97LA broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.

Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOWLOCATED A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRESISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT STRONG HIGHPRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRALAMERICA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...ANDALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING...THIS SYSTEMCOULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITHCENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS AMEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULDCONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:They didn't/haven't jumped the gun on either storm. There was a point when 95L was in the Yucatan Channel when it was very close to tropical depression status (when the NHC upped to red before recon), but it quickly became disorganized.

they jump the gun with 95L and now there jumping the gun with 96L watch and see

They didn't/haven't jumped the gun on either storm. There was a point when 95L was in the Yucatan Channel when it was very close to tropical depression status (when the NHC upped to red before recon), but it quickly became disorganized.

Don't be mistaken 96L is slowly but surely getting its act together and could be a significant threat to the NW Caribbean, W Cuba, Keys & South Florida and even the NW Bahamas in the next few days, just my opinion.

Its easy to be 10 feet tall and bullet proof on a blog. I used to engage in petty arguments on here and then realized that it isnt worth it. Bloggers need to think before they post something and they also need to think before they respond. Take this or leave it. Have a nice day! :)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:While 96L's convective pattern has become slightly less organized since yesterday, its low pressure area has certainly became a lot more defined..I've noticed this season that the low pressure center usually counts more than the convective pattern, so I am going to go out on a limb and say that 96L is very nearly a tropical depression at this time. The NHC will probably keep 60% at the 2PM TWO, or maybe up it slightly to 70% based on the ASCAT pass, but I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon.

It will be interesting to see if convection develops over the low, or if the low moves towards the convection.

Yeah I really wish they would've flown into 96L as scheduled, I mean if they can fly into 95L a disorganized, sheared mess, why can't they fly into 96L?

You see me arguing, you must be mistaken me for someone else, I just post graphics that suggest facts , not what satellite suggest as that can be deceiving, take your picking somewhere else, if that's what you intended!!

96L hasn't moved much at all. It's drifting, and it is VERY difficult to pin down a specific direction of movement looking at VIS satellite imagery. If you look at the steering setup it's very complicated (weak steering currents) like KMAN said last night. I wouldn't expect much movement for at least the next 24 hours:

just like people who jump on here and say that this system is toast without anything to back it up

shear is increasing? does not mean it will kill the system off completely

The reason so many have left this blog is because of the inability of many (not including people like you, Levi, kman, Drak, Cyberteddy and a few others) to be patient and actually analyze the system and what is going on around it without jumping to conclusions

It is no reason to resort to that.

Jeez, if you disagree with something, ignore it, or nicely say you disagree.

I don't see why people on this blog can't respect other people's opinions.

Quoting portcharlotte:I agree..comments such as Hurricane101, Robert88 and so forth have very little objective value but just trying to agravate those who can read the data. These people should find another blog

just like people who jump on here and say that this system is toast without anything to back it up

shear is increasing? does not mean it will kill the system off completely

The reason so many have left this blog is because of the inability of many (not including people like you, Levi, kman, Drak, Cyberteddy and a few others) to be patient and actually analyze the system and what is going on around it without jumping to conclusions

There is this town southwest of San Salvador in La Cordillera Del Balsamo (a mountain range that is basically a shield for San Salvador) called Comasagua, the rain was so heavy, that on Tuesday night the water was coming out of the ground, and the people where hearing noises below the ground, it was an underground river eating away everything; The government took a very bold action and evacuated all 800 people in the middle of the night, with roads heavy damaged and landslides everywhere.

In the morning, they found this: http://youtu.be/1jHZogY8EF0

My condolenses to all over there and hopefully,that country comes out from this stronger than before. Glad the sun came out there as that will help the cleanup to be more faster.

I read a post of Dr. Masters this season and found out about vertical instability for the first time. You HAVE to have the right amount of vertical instability for a TC to develope, and to continue to stay healthy and become stronger. 96L doesnt have it! This seems to be the common denominator with the TCs this season.

Just don't tell me 96L is going to affect El Salvador again; The sun finally appeared on thursday after 12 days of absence (scary, unless you're british).

There is this town southwest of San Salvador in La Cordillera Del Balsamo (a mountain range that is basically a shield for San Salvador) called Comasagua, the rain was so heavy, that on Tuesday night the water was coming out of the ground, and the people where hearing noises below the ground, it was an underground river eating away everything; The government took a very bold action and evacuated all 800 people in the middle of the night, with roads heavy damaged and landslides everywhere.