Why Emap has wrecked UK commercial radio's simple consolidation plan

If you've seen Sam Raimi's A Simple Plan, congratulations, writes Paul Smith. You're one of roughly seven people upon whom the following analogy won't be wasted. If you haven't seen it, pretend this is a Choose Your Own Adventure book and skip the next paragraph. If you've never read a Choose Your Own Adventure book, well... never mind.

A Simple Plan concerns three characters who have the opportunity to become rich beyond their wildest dreams. But only - and this is the deal breaker - if they stick to the plan. The plan is, as the title suggests, very simple: do as you're told, trust one another and say nothing. What could possibly go wrong?

Well everything, obviously. Nobody gets rich, lots of people die and there's blood on the hands of all concerned. Not entirely unlike the position occupied by commercial radio, following Emap's sale of its radio assets to German publisher H Bauer. Emap didn't stick to the plan and now a lot of people will die. Well, not quite. Yes, the analogy was only good for so long.

Commercial radio has been following a critical path of consolidation for several years. GWR merged with / bought Capital Radio - delete according to which company you worked for and what you were told at the time - to create GCap Media. UTV acquired The Wireless Group, Emap bought SRH and GMG Radio - part of Guardian Media Group, which publishes the MediaGuardian website - snapped up Saga. Global Radio came into being and purchased Chrysalis' stations, including London's Heart 106.2 and LBC - the first of many expected acquisitions by the group chaired by Charles Allen.

Radio execs declared this process of natural selection would continue until only two groups remained. The sale of Emap Radio was a significant step towards this endgame. Some groups wanted to cherry-pick licenses that suited their existing brands, while for others - such as Global - acquiring the whole portfolio would have meant establishing a dominant position within the industry.

At no point did anybody mention the Germans. H Bauer's managing director, David Goodchild, seems very excited about the whole affair, and given his initial reaction is unlikely to sell off stations to other groups. Bauer sound like they want a piece of the action.

Consolidation makes perfect sense from the industry's point of view. Greater economies are achieved through scale, bigger station brands can increase revenue opportunities and a unified strategy can be taken in tackling the BBC.

Everyone wants to be king of the hill and acquiring part or all of Emap's assets would have strengthened their challenge and perhaps created one of the two predicted giants. Now everyone will be asking if their group is the hunter or the hunted. For the likes of Global, the answer seems uncertain.

Bauer operate market leading commercial stations in other countries, so they're hardly amateur radio hams, although they are better known in the UK as the publisher of consumer magazines including Take a Break. Perhaps a little German discipline is what's needed in UK commercial radio - so that next time everyone sticks to the plan.