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1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.)
-
-
ALEXANDRIA'S RADICAL PAST...
----------------------------
2. PERHAPS IN KEEPING WITH ITS REPUTATION AS A
CENTER OF DISSENT, IN THE 1970'S, ISLAMIC RIGHT
ACTIVITIES IN ALEXANDRIA WERE FOCUSED ON THE
POLITICAL: THE RADICAL "SHIBAB MUHAMMAD"
ORGANIZATION, WHICH TRIED TO OVERTHROW SADAT
IN 1974, AND THE FIRST RENDITION OF "AL-JIHAD"
WHICH WAS ACTIVE IN 1979-81, DREW MANY OF THEIR
LEADERS AND ADHERENTS FROM ALEXANDRIA AND LARGE
DELTA TOWNS--IN CONTRAST TO "AL-TAKFIR W'AL-HIJRA"
AND LATER RADICAL ORGANIZATIONS WHICH WERE ORGANIZED
AND FOCUSED ON CAIRO AND UPPER EGYPT. MORE VISIBLY,
TWO ALEXANDRIA-BASED RELIGIOUS LEADERS, SHAYKHS
MAHALLAWI AND EID, GALVANIZED A LARGE, VOCAL, AND
YOUTHFUL FOLLOWING BETWEEN 1977-81 THROUGH THEIR
POLEMICS (ALBEIT NON-VIOLENT) AGAINST SADAT
AND CAMP DAVID AND THEIR EXHORTATIONS IN FAVOR OF
AN ISLAMIC-STYLE REPUBLIC.
-
-
... AND LOWER PROFILE PRESENT
-----------------------------
3. THE SITUATION IN ALEXANDRIA IS CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT IN 1987. IN CONTRAST TO THE DAYS WHEN
MAHALLAWI AND EID WERE IMPORTANT FIGURES ON THE
NATIONAL POLITICAL SCENE, NO CURRENT LOCAL FIGURE
CAN BE SAID AT PRESENT TO HAVE SUCH AN INFLUENCE
OR A FOLLOWING. EXTREMIST ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS
SUPPORTING VIOLENCE PROBABLY HAVE ADHERENTS, BUT
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ALEXANDRIA IS A PARTICULAR
CENTER FOR THESE GROUPS.
-
-
4. HOWEVER, RADICAL (BUT NON-VIOLENT) ISLAMIC
ORGANIZATIONS (AND ESPECIALLY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
AND THE VARIOUS ISLAMIC GROUPS OR "GAMAAT")
RETAIN UNTESTED BUT CONSIDERABLE POLITICAL CLOUT.
THIS IS BEST EVIDENCED BY THE LATTER'S SUCCESS IN
RECENT UNIVERSITY STUDENT UNION ELECTIONS (86
ALEXANDRIA 1341) AND THE CAREFUL AND SUCCESSFUL
ORCHESTRATION OF THE MASS PUBLIC PRAYER SERVICES
IN ALEXANDRIA BY SUPPORTERS OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS
AT THE END OF RAMADAN AND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FEAST OF SACRIFICE (86 ALEXANDRIA 899). IN
THIS SENSE, THE ISLAMIC RIGHT'S LOWER POLITICAL
PROFILE IN ALEXANDRIA COULD BE MISLEADING. WHILE
THERE ARE DOUBTLESS MANY DIVISONS BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTIONS, THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT THE
ISLAMIC RIGHT, HOWEVER AMORPHOUS, IS BETTER
ORGANIZED, DISCIPLINED, AND FINANCED THAN SOME
OBSERVERS SUGGEST. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS
THE EXTENT TO WHICH VARIOUS GROUPS IN ALEXANDRIA
HAVE LINKAGES AMONG THEMSELVES OR WITH NATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE SEMI-LEGAL MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.
THIS ISSUE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN PART II.
-
-
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IN-ROADS
----------------------------
5. WHERE THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IS MORE READILY HAVING
ITS INFLUENCE FELT (AND RAPID GROWTH OBSERVED) IS
IN COMMERCE, SOCIAL AND WELFARE ACTIVITIES, AND
PHILANTHROPY. FOR THE TIME BEING, THIS HAS NOT
TRANSLATED INTO ANY DIRECT POLITICAL SPOILS, BUT
THE IMPACT OF ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS IN THESE AREAS HAS
BECOME AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE LOCAL SCENE. WHILE
IT MUST BE CONCEDED THAT SOME PEOPLE AFFILIATE
THEMSELVES WITH SUCH ORGANIZATIONS OR ACTIVITIES
BECAUSE IT IS CHIC TO DO SO, IT IS NEVERTHELESS
EQUALLY TRUE THAT THESE INDIVIDUALS AND THEIR
ORGANIZATIONS ARE INCREASING THEIR SHARE OF THE
LOCAL WEALTH, CREATING JOBS IN AN OTHERWISE
STAGNANT ECONOMY, AND RESPONDING TO SOCIAL NEEDS
THAT AN OTHERWISE OVERBURDENED CITY GOVERNMENT
CANNOT PROVIDE.
-
-
6. THIS THREE PART REPORT PROVIDES A FIRST TENTATIVE
MICROSCOPIC VIEW OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA:
ITS LEADERS, ITS ACTIVITIES, AND ITS IMPACT.
SOME OF THE PERSONALITIES HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN
EARLIER REPORTING; OTHERS HAVE NOT BEEN AND ARE
STILL RELATIVELY UNKNOWN TO US. VARIOUS OBSERVERS
ASSESS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE PEOPLE AND THEIR
ACTIVITIES IN DIFFERENT WAYS: SOME ARE GENUINELY
SCARED, FEARING THAT THESE ACTIVISTS, LOADED WITH
SEEMINGLY LIMITLESS FUNDS, WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT (AND NEGATIVE) POLITICAL IMPACT ON
EGYPT'S FUTURE. OTHERS ARE MORE SANGUINE AND ARGUE
THAT THE UPSURGE IN ISLAMIC ACTIVISM IS MERELY REFLECTIVE
OF POPULAR OPINION IN FAVOR OF INCREASED RELIGIOSITY.
-
-
7. BOTH OF THESE VIEWPOINTS ARE HEARD FREQUENTLY
IN ALEXANDRIA. OUR ASSESSMENT IS THAT THERE ARE
INDEED POSITIVE ASPECTS TO THE CURRENT ACTIVISM
OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA: IN A CITY WHERE
THERE ARE MANY PROBLEMS AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR
EARLY IMPROVEMENT, THE ISLAMIC RIGHT, NOT INFREQUENTLY,
IS HELPING TO FILL THE VOID AND, IN THIS MANNER,
CREATING A MORE STABLE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT.
-
-
8. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE TOO MANY UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS AS TO WHO IS FINANCING VARIOUS ISLAMIC
ENTERPRISES AND UNDERTAKINGS AND ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIPS
BETWEEN VARIOUS ISLAMIC ENTREPRENEURS AND PHILAN-
THROPISTS AND NATIONAL OR LOCAL ISLAMIC PERSONALITIES
AND ORGANIZATIONS WHO HAVE A POLITICAL AGENDA WHICH
IS DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE GOE. UNTIL THESE
QUESTIONS ARE ANSWERED, ONE MUST CONTINUE TO VIEW
THE ISLAMIC RIGHT AND ITS PROPONENTS WITH CONTINUED
CAUTION AND CURIOSITY.
-
-
9. PART II IN THIS SERIES WILL IDENTIFY SOME OF
THE PRINCIPAL SPIRITUAL AND (POTENTIALLY) POLITICAL
LEADERS OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA. THE
THIRD AND FINAL PART WILL LOOK AT REPRESENTATIVES
OF THE GROWING ISLAMIC BUSINESS COMMUNITY AND
ASSESS THEIR ROLE IN COMMERCE, SOCIAL WELFARE,
AND PHILANTHROPIC ACTIVITIES.
HAMBLEY

Raw content

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALEXANDRIA 00290
USCINCCENT FOR POLAD HOWELL
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: KPRP, PINS, PGOV, PHUM, ECON, PINR, SOCI, EG
SUBJECT: ISLAMIC TRILOGY, PART I: AN OVERVIEW OF
THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA
REF: ALEXANDRIA 00289
1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.)
-
-
ALEXANDRIA'S RADICAL PAST...
----------------------------
2. PERHAPS IN KEEPING WITH ITS REPUTATION AS A
CENTER OF DISSENT, IN THE 1970'S, ISLAMIC RIGHT
ACTIVITIES IN ALEXANDRIA WERE FOCUSED ON THE
POLITICAL: THE RADICAL "SHIBAB MUHAMMAD"
ORGANIZATION, WHICH TRIED TO OVERTHROW SADAT
IN 1974, AND THE FIRST RENDITION OF "AL-JIHAD"
WHICH WAS ACTIVE IN 1979-81, DREW MANY OF THEIR
LEADERS AND ADHERENTS FROM ALEXANDRIA AND LARGE
DELTA TOWNS--IN CONTRAST TO "AL-TAKFIR W'AL-HIJRA"
AND LATER RADICAL ORGANIZATIONS WHICH WERE ORGANIZED
AND FOCUSED ON CAIRO AND UPPER EGYPT. MORE VISIBLY,
TWO ALEXANDRIA-BASED RELIGIOUS LEADERS, SHAYKHS
MAHALLAWI AND EID, GALVANIZED A LARGE, VOCAL, AND
YOUTHFUL FOLLOWING BETWEEN 1977-81 THROUGH THEIR
POLEMICS (ALBEIT NON-VIOLENT) AGAINST SADAT
AND CAMP DAVID AND THEIR EXHORTATIONS IN FAVOR OF
AN ISLAMIC-STYLE REPUBLIC.
-
-
... AND LOWER PROFILE PRESENT
-----------------------------
3. THE SITUATION IN ALEXANDRIA IS CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT IN 1987. IN CONTRAST TO THE DAYS WHEN
MAHALLAWI AND EID WERE IMPORTANT FIGURES ON THE
NATIONAL POLITICAL SCENE, NO CURRENT LOCAL FIGURE
CAN BE SAID AT PRESENT TO HAVE SUCH AN INFLUENCE
OR A FOLLOWING. EXTREMIST ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS
SUPPORTING VIOLENCE PROBABLY HAVE ADHERENTS, BUT
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ALEXANDRIA IS A PARTICULAR
CENTER FOR THESE GROUPS.
-
-
4. HOWEVER, RADICAL (BUT NON-VIOLENT) ISLAMIC
ORGANIZATIONS (AND ESPECIALLY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
AND THE VARIOUS ISLAMIC GROUPS OR "GAMAAT")
RETAIN UNTESTED BUT CONSIDERABLE POLITICAL CLOUT.
THIS IS BEST EVIDENCED BY THE LATTER'S SUCCESS IN
RECENT UNIVERSITY STUDENT UNION ELECTIONS (86
ALEXANDRIA 1341) AND THE CAREFUL AND SUCCESSFUL
ORCHESTRATION OF THE MASS PUBLIC PRAYER SERVICES
IN ALEXANDRIA BY SUPPORTERS OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS
AT THE END OF RAMADAN AND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FEAST OF SACRIFICE (86 ALEXANDRIA 899). IN
THIS SENSE, THE ISLAMIC RIGHT'S LOWER POLITICAL
PROFILE IN ALEXANDRIA COULD BE MISLEADING. WHILE
THERE ARE DOUBTLESS MANY DIVISONS BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTIONS, THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT THE
ISLAMIC RIGHT, HOWEVER AMORPHOUS, IS BETTER
ORGANIZED, DISCIPLINED, AND FINANCED THAN SOME
OBSERVERS SUGGEST. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS
THE EXTENT TO WHICH VARIOUS GROUPS IN ALEXANDRIA
HAVE LINKAGES AMONG THEMSELVES OR WITH NATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE SEMI-LEGAL MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.
THIS ISSUE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN PART II.
-
-
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IN-ROADS
----------------------------
5. WHERE THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IS MORE READILY HAVING
ITS INFLUENCE FELT (AND RAPID GROWTH OBSERVED) IS
IN COMMERCE, SOCIAL AND WELFARE ACTIVITIES, AND
PHILANTHROPY. FOR THE TIME BEING, THIS HAS NOT
TRANSLATED INTO ANY DIRECT POLITICAL SPOILS, BUT
THE IMPACT OF ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS IN THESE AREAS HAS
BECOME AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE LOCAL SCENE. WHILE
IT MUST BE CONCEDED THAT SOME PEOPLE AFFILIATE
THEMSELVES WITH SUCH ORGANIZATIONS OR ACTIVITIES
BECAUSE IT IS CHIC TO DO SO, IT IS NEVERTHELESS
EQUALLY TRUE THAT THESE INDIVIDUALS AND THEIR
ORGANIZATIONS ARE INCREASING THEIR SHARE OF THE
LOCAL WEALTH, CREATING JOBS IN AN OTHERWISE
STAGNANT ECONOMY, AND RESPONDING TO SOCIAL NEEDS
THAT AN OTHERWISE OVERBURDENED CITY GOVERNMENT
CANNOT PROVIDE.
-
-
6. THIS THREE PART REPORT PROVIDES A FIRST TENTATIVE
MICROSCOPIC VIEW OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA:
ITS LEADERS, ITS ACTIVITIES, AND ITS IMPACT.
SOME OF THE PERSONALITIES HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN
EARLIER REPORTING; OTHERS HAVE NOT BEEN AND ARE
STILL RELATIVELY UNKNOWN TO US. VARIOUS OBSERVERS
ASSESS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE PEOPLE AND THEIR
ACTIVITIES IN DIFFERENT WAYS: SOME ARE GENUINELY
SCARED, FEARING THAT THESE ACTIVISTS, LOADED WITH
SEEMINGLY LIMITLESS FUNDS, WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT (AND NEGATIVE) POLITICAL IMPACT ON
EGYPT'S FUTURE. OTHERS ARE MORE SANGUINE AND ARGUE
THAT THE UPSURGE IN ISLAMIC ACTIVISM IS MERELY REFLECTIVE
OF POPULAR OPINION IN FAVOR OF INCREASED RELIGIOSITY.
-
-
7. BOTH OF THESE VIEWPOINTS ARE HEARD FREQUENTLY
IN ALEXANDRIA. OUR ASSESSMENT IS THAT THERE ARE
INDEED POSITIVE ASPECTS TO THE CURRENT ACTIVISM
OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA: IN A CITY WHERE
THERE ARE MANY PROBLEMS AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR
EARLY IMPROVEMENT, THE ISLAMIC RIGHT, NOT INFREQUENTLY,
IS HELPING TO FILL THE VOID AND, IN THIS MANNER,
CREATING A MORE STABLE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT.
-
-
8. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE TOO MANY UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS AS TO WHO IS FINANCING VARIOUS ISLAMIC
ENTERPRISES AND UNDERTAKINGS AND ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIPS
BETWEEN VARIOUS ISLAMIC ENTREPRENEURS AND PHILAN-
THROPISTS AND NATIONAL OR LOCAL ISLAMIC PERSONALITIES
AND ORGANIZATIONS WHO HAVE A POLITICAL AGENDA WHICH
IS DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE GOE. UNTIL THESE
QUESTIONS ARE ANSWERED, ONE MUST CONTINUE TO VIEW
THE ISLAMIC RIGHT AND ITS PROPONENTS WITH CONTINUED
CAUTION AND CURIOSITY.
-
-
9. PART II IN THIS SERIES WILL IDENTIFY SOME OF
THE PRINCIPAL SPIRITUAL AND (POTENTIALLY) POLITICAL
LEADERS OF THE ISLAMIC RIGHT IN ALEXANDRIA. THE
THIRD AND FINAL PART WILL LOOK AT REPRESENTATIVES
OF THE GROWING ISLAMIC BUSINESS COMMUNITY AND
ASSESS THEIR ROLE IN COMMERCE, SOCIAL WELFARE,
AND PHILANTHROPIC ACTIVITIES.
HAMBLEY