For
several years Yerevan had been signalling that is was willing to - and
was in fact preparing to - enter into a closer relationship with the European Union (EU).
European officials had increased their contacts with high ranking
Armenian officials in recent months and Yerevan was being widely
expected to sign a cooperation document with the EU this November.

Some
political observers, however, had been of the opinion that
Yerevan's overtures to the EU was a ploy and that it was being jointly coordinated
with Moscow. Some political observers also felt that Yerevan
was trying to gain maximum benefit by dealing with both sides but would ultimately drop the EU and seek closer
economic cooperation with Moscow.

Moscow
officials must have known that despite what happened Yerevan would be
going
nowhere. After all, the strategic Caucasus has traditionally been
recognized as Russia's zone of influence and, as we saw during the
summer of 2008, Moscow
showed the global community that it is willing to go to great lengths
and resort to drastic measures if need be to stop a Western foothold
from forming in the region. With Turks patiently waiting on both
sides of the Armenian borders, with the Middle East on the verge of
exploding, what Armenian official in his right mind would seek to anger
the Russian Bear?

European and American officials, however, were
naively hoping that with a lot of empty promises as well as
dissemination of anti-Russian propaganda in Armenia - and
perhaps some money under the table - Yerevan could be somehow convinced
to embrace the EU. This hope of theirs was essentially why they
tolerated
the Sargsyan administration in recent years.

To
the utter dismay of American imperialists, Eurofags, Armenia's opposition chobans, Western
activists in Armenia and nationalist nutjobs in the Diaspora, President
Sargsyan showed his courage, foresight and political prudence by taking
the opportunity during his September 3 visit to Moscow to
surprise everyone by publicly announcing his decision to join the Russian-led Customs
Union (thought to be a gateway to the Eurasian Union).In my opinion, a proven grossmeister in politics, President Sargsyan was able to manipulate EU officials. By leading them on for
several years, President Sargsyan was able to effectively neutralize them during times when
he was most vulnerable - specifically during
the last presidential elections, during which Washington's political operatives in Armenia were constantly putting the pressure on him. Now that it's quite obvious that President Sargsyan
played them like a cheep fiddle, Western officials will earnestly begin their
propaganda assault against him... But it's too late.

The
only thing that surprised me about President Sargsyan's announcement
was its timing. I
did not think President Sargsyan would announce his decision this
early. President Sargsyan's government wanted to play the
"complimentary" card as long as possible. Yerevan wanted to extract
maximum benefit from both sides of the political fence. But it was
time, as it seems.

I
personally
think the early announcement was because of the volatile
geopolitical climate prevailing in the region. As I have pointed out on
numerous previous occasions, Armenia, which hosts a significant Russian
military presence, is located very near the Middle Eastern powder keg.
And, needless to say, there is an air or urgency in Moscow. At a time
when Moscow
is desperately trying to ward-off a Western aggression against Syria and
Iran, and secure its zones of influence throughout Eurasia from Western
inroads, Russian officials seemed to have had enough of Yerevan's
flirtations with the West (regardless of Yerevan's true intentions).

Although Yerevan would
have willingly joined the Moscow-led Customs Union eventually, I
personally think that
the September 3 announcement was essentially due to political pressure
from Moscow as a result of the region's political tensions and Moscow's
burning desire to reinsert direct influence in former Soviet territory.

On September 4, merely
a day after the historic announcement by President Sargsyan, Western
activists in Armenia organized a small but noisy protest against the president's decision in front of the
presidential palace in Yerevan during which some of them clashed
with the police. Needless to say, many of Armenia's Captain Americas
(including Washington's longest serving operative in Armenia, Paruyr
Hayrikian) were present to spew their political illiteracy, Russophobic hysteria and hate
rhetoric. Interestingly, an Amnesty International
report stated that during the evening
of September 5, merely a day after the protest at the presidential
palace, two participating activists, Haykak
Arshamian and Suren Saghatelian, were severely beaten by unknown
assailants.

I can
only hope at this point that the beatings in question were directly connected to Haykak's and Suren's well known professions as anti-Russian propagandists in Armenia. Incidentally, this Haykak was the same Haykak
that wrote the following article in the rabidly anti-Russian opposition
propaganda outlets known as Lragir about two years ago -

I
sincerely hope that suppressive actions
against Western activists will become more frequent, now that the region of
the world where Armenia is located in is on the verge of a
major war as a direct result of Haykak's and Suren's spiritual bosses in Washington, London, Brussels, Ankara and Tel Aviv.Therefore, what happened to Haykak
and Suren after their anti-Russian protest in front of the Presidential
Palace in Yerevan may be good news and I hope hear more such good news
in the future.

But, there is even better
news. A day after the historic announcement by President
Sargsyan, Eurasian Development Bank’s Deputy President Sergei Shatalov
officially announced that his bank will be willing to allocate $100,000,000 to Armenia for the construction of the strategic north-south highway -

This is really good news for those who thought Moscow is only
capable of
pursuing aggressive politics for here we clearly see Russian 'soft
power' at work. If all goes well, I have a strong feeling that next on
Moscow's soft power list will be the realization of a Russian-sponsored
strategic railway that is envisioned to traverse Russia,
Georgia, Armenia and Iran.

Moscow
recently announced it will lift
the 30% tariff on its gas deliveries to Armenia and has offered to
subsidize Armenia's nuclear power plant. There is renewed
interest in promoting Russian language schools in Armenia. In a sign
that there
has
been a serious deepening of Russian-Armenian military relations, the
Russian commander of the 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia said in
an interview that Russian forces may intervene to protect - Artsakh -
from an Azeri attack. In a sign that there is a serious deepening of
Russian-Armenian business relations, it was announced that more than 500 business
leaders from Russia will be visiting Armenia for a business forum scheduled to be
held in early December. And just recently, Russian-Armenian tycoon
Ara
Abrahamyan announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a
state visit
to Armenia, also in early December -

Although
our Russophobes claim that Moscow has been using strong-arm tactics to
pull Yerevan away from the EU, it has in fact been European officials that
have been placing strong preconditions on Yerevan. Armenian officials have expressed - and continue to express - their strong desire to have close ties with both economic blocs.
Western officials, however, have been publicly claiming that Yerevan's entry
into an economic pact overseen by Moscow will disqualify it from any dealings with the EU.

Nevertheless, regardless of what Yerevan wanted, Brussels wanted Armenia without Russia and Russia wanted Armenia without Brussels.In
other words, Armenia was dealing with jealous partners with no desire
to share anything. Therefore, Armenia could not have its desired ménage à trios.

Thus, in the big picture, Armenia had no choice
in
the matter. This was, from the start, an arranged marriage between
Moscow and Yerevan. Although arranged, I am however very happy about the
partner in question.

As
a partner, Russia may not be perfect (then again, who is, the West?)
but it has been a very good provider for an embattled Armenia in a nasty
place like the south Caucasus for the past two hundred years. [In fact,
October 12, 2013 was the two hundredth anniversary of the Treaty of Gulistan
which saw the liberation of Artsakh from Islamic, Persian rule
by Czarist Russia.] Russia may also be an overly jealous partner - and
it does act brutish at times - but it knows how to protect its turf and
we Armenians knows how deal with it. As mentioned above, we Armenians
have been dealing with Russia for the past two hundred years. At worst,
Russia is the devil we know - very well.

Nevertheless, Where
would our Captain Americas,
Russophobes and nationalist nutjobs be today had Russia not invaded and
not stayed in the Caucasus some two hundred years ago?

As
in 1812, Russia is once again resurgent. Russia is once again on the
rise. Russia is the alpha and the omega of the Caucasus. Russia is
winning the Great Game in Eurasia. And with the decline of Western
powers and the emergence of nations such as Russia, China, India and
Iran, we are at the crux of a new world order. Moscow is in the process
of earnestly reinstating its power and influence within former Soviet
territory, and because of its status as Moscow's strategic ally in the
south Caucasus, Armenia has the unique opportunity now to firmly
establish itself within Russia's foreign policy calculations. A free and
independent Armenia is in a strategic alliance with a major world
power. As I have been proclaiming for many years, this is a historic
opportunity Armenia has not had in well over one thousand years.

Enjoying
sovereignty over the largest landmass in the world and in possession of
immense natural wealth, and wielding a potent military to protect it
all, I
firmly believe Russia will be in the driver's seat - politically,
militarily and economically - within the twenty-first century. My wish
is to simply see Armenia at the very least in its passenger seat.

The key to Armenia's future success in the south Caucasus is found
within the highest offices of the Kremlin. Instead of the constant complaints
and fear-mongering over Russia's growing influence in the south Caucasus,
Armenians would do well to accept reality and embark on a pan-national/collective effort -
similar to what Jews do in the West - to promote Armenia's national
interests within Moscow.

Do Armenia's sons and daughters have the foresight to take advantage of this historic opportunity, or is the legendary Armenian mind only reserved to be used for personal matters or against other
Armenians?

Nevertheless,
now that it has been decided, what does all this mean? What does
ascension to the Customs Union ultimately mean for Armenia?

Simply put: What Customs Union membership
for Armenia means is closer, more effective political, economic and
financial cooperation between former Soviet states - and not the lose of
Armenia's "independence" as our Western funded Russophobes are
desperately trying to convince us all.

Yes,
the pact in question is Russian-led and will thus be Russian dominated for the most part -
just like the European Union is German led and dominated, just like
NATO is US led and dominated, etc.

Unlike
many of our Captain Americas, Cold War rejects and nationalist nutjobs,
I do not fear the return of Bolshevism nor do I think the Russian
nation has the appetite - or is stupid enough - to seek the resurrection of the Russian Empire. When
we talk about greater Russian involvement in the context of former
Soviet republics, what we are essentially talking about is a
Russian-led confederation of independent states closely working with
each other. Suggesting anything else is nonsense derived from political illiteracy and paranoia.

In
fact, Armenia has a much better chance of preserving its national
character in such a Russian-led pact than it would have in the stinking,
perverted, multinational melting pot of the European Union. After all,
in stark contrast to the genocide of a number of peoples under
Western/European rule, dozens of ethnicities have been able to fully
preserve their national identity inside Russia after hundreds of years
of Russian rule.

As
I said, what Customs Union membership ultimately means for Armenia is
more efficient economic trade amongst regional member states. What
Customs Union membership ultimately means for Armenia is a massive,
readily accessible market where its products are well known and better
appreciated than anywhere else on earth. More
importantly, membership in the Customs Union lessens the importance of
the Armenian-Turkish border, lessens Armenia's current total reliance on
the US Dollar and lessens the corrosive effects of Globalism and the
English language.

Which brings me to the topic of Globalism and the English language.

After
decades of hearing just how important it was to learn English, I would now like to
use English to talk about the dangers of learning English, now that we are living in an English speaking world.

The dangers of
Globalese

If we want to speak
their language, sing their songs, dance to their music, watch their
films, live in their lands, learn in their universities and trade with
their currency - how can we ever be able to recognize them as the enemy?

Through television programming, the republic's educational system, so-called
aid
agencies and propaganda outlets disguised as news agencies, Western
"values" began penetrating Armenian society very soon after the Soviet
Union dissolved in the early 1990s.To put it as briefly as possible: With the
void that the sudden fall of the Soviet Union had left in Armenia, Armenians simply woke up one day to
see that: Washington had built the world's second largest US embassy in
Yerevan; English had begun replacing Russian as the second language in
the country; and most of the nation's English speaking opposition leaders, rights
advocates, political activists and independent journalists were more-or-less on Western payrolls.

Armenia's youth, those who did not live during Soviet times, have been
most susceptible to the most corrosive aspects of Western Globalism.Although alarming,
it was therefore not surprising that English has been making serious headway amongst Armenia's youth as
less-and-less of them are learning Russian.

By
enthusiastically embracing the English language and celebrating
Anglo-American cultural elements (low quality, modern pop culture in particular), Armenians are unwittingly adopting
Anglo-American
values and identity, and all that comes along with it. With values and identity comes
politics and mentality. Knowing the English language makes their job of delivering sociopolitical messages that much easier. Knowing the English language makes their job of social engineering via cinema, publications, television and music that much more
effective.

The English language has thus become a catalyst of change and a tool of manipulation and
conditioning.

When
it comes to English, unbeknownst to the sheeple, alongside Shakespeare
comes the very toxic tenets of Globalism.
Multiculturalism,
interracialism, anti-nationalism, anti-Christianity, consumerism,
individualism and the celebration of feminism and homosexuality travels very-very
close behind the spread of
the
English language around the world.

Therefore,
it is no surprise that one
of the Western world's most powerful weapons today is the English
language itself. In fact, English today is the language of Globalism. English
is Globalese. This is why we have seen the active promotion and spread of
the
language around the world in recent decades. This is why Washington
alone has spent billions of dollars
on the proliferation of the language: It's part of the strategic agenda to tether the world to it's global order.
The US Dollar, American entertainment and the English language play
very fundamental roles in the Anglo-American-Zionist global order.

Recent
years (post-Soviet years in particular) has made things
much easier for the Western powers for they no longer need to actively
promote
their language or their values because tens-of-millions of sheeple
across the world have taken the Anglo-American task upon themselves to
do all they can to act "western" and learn English.

Now,
with thoroughly Anglicized human assets numbering in the many millions
around the world, Western-funded NGOs have begun championing politically
motivated causes around the world, causes that ultimately serve Western imperial
agendas. This is essentially why every kind of obnoxious street movement we see around the
world today - from Armenia's "Barevolutionists" to Arab Spring activists to Russia's Pussy Riots - have
English speaking spokespeople, office branches based in English
speaking countries and placards written in English and not in their
native
languages.

English has essentially become the unifying language of freaks around the
world.

Where
there is the recent spread of
the English language today, there is
decadence. Where there is English, there is cultural decline. Where there
is English, there is moral decline. Where there is English, there is
crony capitalism. Where there is English, there is consumerism. Where there is English, there individualism. Where
there is English, there is political instability or political
subservience to the Anglo-American-Zionist order.

And what are the wonderful options generally waiting for the masses of
Armenia's English
speaking youth? 1) Migration to English speaking countries. 2) Working for Western/Globalist organizations
based in Armenia. 3) Obtaining information about the world from English language sources.

A language as
important as Russian in a nation like Armenia is giving way to a language
as corrosive as English and this is happening with the full consent of the
Armenian sheeple, including Armenia's politically illiterate politicians.

With
the corrosive effects of Globalese
permeating throughout Armenia in recent years, Armenia needs to
reestablish Russian learning institutions as a strategic countermeasure.I was very encouraged to hear from Ambassador Kovalenko that Moscow
will begin actively promoting the Russian language inside Armenia -

Ambassador Kovalenko stresses the importance of Russian language in Armenia:http://arka.am

Whether
we like it or not, Armenia will remain in Russia's orbit for the
foreseeable future and the largest and most successful Armenian Diaspora
is located in Russia. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, after
Armenian, Russian will be the single most important language in Armenia.

The
first and second languages in Armenia needs to be Armenian and Russian
respectively. Other languages that need to be taught in the country are:
German, French, Persian, Arabic, Chinese and of course, English.Moreover, there should be a strict ban of English language street signs or
advertizements in Armenia.

Thankfully, we
may have finally begun seeing the commencement of the long-overdue
demise of the English speaking world, a global order that has ruled
much of the world uninterruptedly since the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte two
hundred years ago. The rise of nations such as Russia, China, Iran and India will
usher in a new era.

Recent events in the Middle East have shown that we are witnessing the birth of a
multipolar world where Western powers no longer reign supreme, a world
where Western powers can no longer commit crimes with impunity. Yes, the
Western world is in decline. But the battle is not yet over.Although
Armenia has been placed on the right track, the struggle between West
and Russia will continue in the country for Western
powers
continue to be represented by a large number of obedient servants
deeply
embedded inside Armenian society. Western powers continue to enjoy the services of Armenian mercenaries.

Armenia's foreign led
political
opposition

If there ever was a shining example of a destructive political
opposition on the payroll of foreign entities, Richard Giragosian's "Regional
Studies Center", Raffi Hovannisian's "Heritage" party and Paruyr
Hayrikian's "Self Determination Party" have to be it.After the September 3
announcement, I thought it was only a matter of time before the country's
destructive opposition peasantry took their treacherous, anti-state agenda to the next level. Needless to say, I was not
disappointed.We recently had the displeasure of
seeing Zaruhi Postanjian, one of Raffi's street whores in action in Europe -

Paruyr Hayrikian, the CIA's longest serving operative in Armenia and the one-time Soviet dissident with Jewish kids in the US who
still claims the "KGB" and "Imperial Russia" are after him, has also been making a
lot of weird noises lately. Some of you may recall that some time ago I had
stated that this
so-called "nationalist"
reserves more hatred towards Russians than towards Turks or Azeris. In
fact, it's
common to hear from his devout followers that "Russians are worst than
Turks". Simply put: Paruyr's lifelong obsession has been to form a united
front in the south Caucasus with Georgians and Turks (of course with
Western and Jewish support) against what he terms as the dangers of "Russian
imperialism". His recent comments from Georgia speak for themselves -

Of course Richard Giragosian
could not remain silent with regards to Yerevan's September 3 decision.
After all, undermining Russian-Armenian relations is specifically what
he is in Armenia for. Therefore,
it was not a surprise that agent Giragosian, one of Washington's
seasoned professionals in Armenia, has been on a fearmongering tour lately
-

Richard Giragosian: It was really disgraceful on Armenia's part to surrender to Russia soeasily: http://www.arminfo.info

More on Richard Giragosian, who's move to Armenia was facilitated by none-other-than Raffi Hovanissian, can be read in the
following blog commentary -

It is encouraging
that the
former ambassador is remaining active in Armenian politics and it is very encouraging that he has decided to single out Richard
Giragosian.

Interestingly, the ambassador also raised the concerns about the possible creation a Western-led "fifth column"
within Armenian society, now that Yerevan has made public its decision
to join the Moscow-led Customs
Union. In my opinion, this comment is particularly alarming due to recent events in the
region where Western-led opposition groups have instigated bloody civil wars in
countries targeted by Western powers.

The
former ambassador's not-so comfortable choice-of-words is something all
Armenians need to closely listen to. More importantly, officials in Yerevan need to
stop their pandering to Western powers and start curbing the
activities of Western led, funded or inspired subversives. The following
is a partial list of individuals and organizations that need to be
placed under counter-terrorism surveillance:

The above mentioned men and women should once again remind us that
Armenia's worst enemy has always been the Armenian. These people represent the kind of internal filth that has been
responsible for Armenia's sad plight for centuries. They represents the
kind of internal filth that
has historically dragged Armenia though dirt merely for the sake of
their selfish desires, arrogance,
ignorance and malfeasance.

These filth are the spiritual reincarnations of the
filth that beheaded the great Mkhitar Sparapet and presented his severed
head to the Turkish Sultan as a peace offering.

While
bloodless, what Zaruhi Boztanjian did in Europe was essentially the
same: She figuratively beheaded her nation's leader in a public square
in front of foreign leaders. I'm sure that in an earlier time period or
under different circumstances, her beheading of President Serj Sargsyan to appease foreigners would not have been a
figurative one.

It
must be pointed out that Zaruhi Boztanjian's homecoming from Europe was
very revealing of the destructive gene in Armenians that has plagued
Armenia for
centuries: Instead of being met by insults and jeers by masses of angry Armenians, she was greeted
by flowers and cheers by adoring fans -

The
pursuit of "political freedom” or
the "freedom of expression" should not be an excuse for destructive
behavior in our embattled, little nation
surrounded by enemies in the volatile Caucasus. Let’s face it folks, we
Armenians do not know what political freedom means and will not do so
for
some time.

Therefore, in the meanwhile, God save Armenia from Democracy. God save Armenia from its destructive peasantry.

As
long as we have Armenians that will exhibit the kind of behavior
exhibited by Armenia's political opposition and their utterly braindead
followers, Armenia will not deserve full independence. If this is the
caliber of people that are currently in position to takeover the reigns
of power in the country if God forbid
the current government is toppled, I much rather we simply give back the house keys to Moscow.

Here is a most recent example of the quality of Armenia's political opposition -

A
deranged nutjob named Shant Harutiunyan and a few dozen of his brain-dead followers attempted
to incite a revolution in Armenia today. Needless to say, this
revolution of their was stillborn. In my opinion, this was just another measure
to punish
Sargsyan's administration due to Yerevan's recent decision to join the
Russian-led Customs Union. As we have been seeing, ever since Yerevan's historic announcement on
September 3, Armenia's Western-led opposition freaks have
been very active. And with Russian President Vladimir Putin's long
overdue visit looming in Armenia, we can expect
more mischief by them.

Nevertheless, I have been warning
about
situations like this for a long time.

Enough of this
"complimentary politics" bullshit. Armenian officials need to stop giving Western-led NGOs and propaganda outlets the
freedom to destabilize Armenia. We as a people need to stop tolerating Armenia's
Western-led political opposition. There is too much political
freedom in Armenia. There is too much political freedom in a country
who's citizens do not understand what political freedom means. The Armenian government is too
lenient when it comes to domestic political matters. This freedom and leniency is being looked upon as weakness by Western
powers and their operatives inside Armenia.

A good way to stop these operatives is to break-up their support groups and stop their funding.
And if that does not work, spill some blood. Eliminate a few of their ringleaders and jail the rest and we'll
have the sociopolitical peace and stability needed to help the Armenian
state continue its evolutionary course.

What's interesting is that had these people tried
to pull-off something like this in the US for instance, they would have
been either shot dead or beaten, pepper-sprayed, tased, beaten some more, arrested,
interrogated as terrorists, beaten some more andthrown into jail - and then raped by police batons.

Do Armenian authorities have the balls to at least put these nutjobs away for good?

As
long as Yerevan tolerates
its Western-led political
opposition freaks and bestows upon them legitimate sounding titles such
as
"patriot", "political activist", "musician", "rights advocate",
"environmentalist", "expert" or "journalist",
Armenia will remain a weak state, not taken seriously
by any of the world major powers, including by our only ally in the
north.
The global community only understands the display of power and unity.
The global community only respects those who respect themselves. This is
why Turks have historically been successful. This is why nations such
as Armenia and Greece has historically been failures.

As
much as I hate to say it, and I know many of my readers will disagree
with me, when it comes to serious political matters pertaining to
Armenia, I
have more trust in Russian officials than I do in Armenians. Until
Armenia begins giving birth to capable nationalistic leaders with
vision, courage and political acumen and a populace that stands-by its
leadership - unconditionally - I will continue to looking north
for Armenia's salvation.

As long
as Armenians are not rallying behind their state unconditionally, at least on the
international stage, Armenia will forever
be looked upon as vulnerable and will thus be subject to foreign
machinations.

As long as Armenia has a "fifth column" ready and willing to
attack
the Armenian leadership at any given opportunity, as we recently saw in Europe, the international
community will continue looking down at
Armenia, Western powers will continue funding subversive activities
in Armenia and Moscow will continue holding Armenia on a very short
leash.

Nevertheless,
I am very thankful that psychopaths like Shant Harutiunyan and Raffi Hovannisian's Heritage party has finally made
us all (even the rigidly naive and/or ignorant ones in our society) realize just how
destructive and how utterly delusional Armenia's political opposition is
and how lucky we are to have the government we currently have - despite all its flaws.

Armenia needs a high colonic

As
a result of the region's "Great Game" (i.e. the political wrangling between Moscow and the West during the past twenty years) and as a result of Yerevan's
"Complimentary Politics" (i.e. the policy of appeasing both Moscow and the West), Armenia's political opposition and the country's so-called "rights groups" have been hijacked by Western interests.

Consequently, Armenia has suffered over twenty years of systematic infiltration.
The Western cancer (represented by an army of organizations, politicians, experts and
social activists) is deeply embedded in the country today. If allowed to
grow, this cancer will prove deadly. Therefore, drastic situations require drastic measures to remedy them.

Let's
not make the fatal mistake of underestimating Washington's lemmings in
Armenia. I'd dare say Armenia's Western-led political opposition represents a
majority of Armenians today. The only thing they are lacking currently
is unity and the right opportunity to take control.

There is not a single
soul in all of Armenia's political opposition today that can even
remotely be considered a
normal human-being. The only way, therefore, to politically stabilize
Armenia and secure its future is to cleanse its internal filth.

I say Armenia is sick and in dire need of a high
colonic.

Now that Yerevan has plotted its future course, I
wish to see Yerevan become more proactive, more aggressive in combating
Western activism in Armenia. We
have seen too many Western-led organizations and individuals
creating too many problems around the world for too many years: Central and South America of the 1980s, the
Russian Federation of the 1990s and the Middle East of today are glaring
examples of how destructive Western entities can be in developing
countries.

Therefore,
in
conjunction with Russian security forces, Armenian counter-terrorism
units need to identify all Western and Globalist centers of influence
throughout the
country and begin reassessing their operations. All Western funded NGOs,
Western
funded activists, Western funded propaganda
outlets disguised as news organizations and think tanks, and all
Western sponsored learning institutions (including the American
University of
Armenia, including the Yerevan State University who's journalism
department for example was founded by Western entities in 1991 and
continuous to be
supported by them today) need to be placed under surveillance. The list
of names and organizations I posted above is a good place to start.

Simply put: Armenia can no longer
afford playing host to a host of Western operatives seeking to use Armenia's natural growing pains to foment political unrest in the country and undermine
Yerevan's ties to
Moscow. Armenia can no longer afford to allow Western Globalism (a modern form
of Bolshevism) to corrupt its national identity. Armenia can no longer
allow "Democracy" - as prescribed by Western powers - to weaken the
Armenian state by empowering those on the fringes of society.

I'd also like to see Russian
officials
get more proactive inside Armenia. Moscow is also guilty of
allowing
Armenia to turn into a Western playground during the past two decades.
Russians officials cannot continue thinking that by merely dealing with
Armenia's top leadership or controlling its infrastructure they will
have no worries in Armenia. Moscow's negligence and old world tactics
has allowed Western interests to setup deep within Armenian
society. Moscow needs
to step into the modern world and recognize the paramount importance of
Public
Relations, Social Engineering and, more importantly, Soft Power.

In this regard, Ambassador
Kovalenko's recent activities are encouraging. After years of working
primarily behind-the-scenes, we may be seeing a more proactive, hands-on approach to
Armenia by Russians officials. In
his interview where he criticized Richard Giragosian recently, I'm glad that the ambassador also called into
question the wisdom of
seeking membership in the European Union.

The case against European integration

As beleaguered nations such as Greece, Bulgaria, Rumania, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Italy
have vividly shown us in recent years, Armenia's membership into the EU would have done nothing positive for Armenia.

For a small, impoverished and vulnerable nation like
Armenia, "Western integration" would have meant adopting an
Anglo-American-Zionist agenda (i.e. slavery to the US Dollar, slavery to Western energy interests, slavery to
Western corporations, multiculturalism, inter-racialism, sexual perversions,
destruction of the traditional family unit, destruction of the national church
and the death of nationalism).

For a small, impoverished and a south Caucasus
nation
like Armenia, "Western integration" would have also meant indirect subordination
to Ankara. So blinded by their political illiteracy and Russophobia,
our
EUrotic idiots and Captain Americas were failing to realize that
Armenia's primary route to the EU would NOT have come via Georgia - but
via TURKEY! Our West-leaning fools today fail to understand that for Armenia
"independence" from Russia will ultimately mean DEPENDENCE ON TURKEY.

I would like to bring another angle into this: During the past
twenty years, the only thing that has stopped
American,
British, European, Turkish or Israeli firms or individuals from hopping aboard an
airplane, going to Armenia and practically purchasing the entire country
in one financial transaction has been Russia's security services and, believe it or not - Armenia's oligarchs. Closer European integration would have replaced Armenia's homegrown oligarchs with bigger and
nastier (but better dressed and better educated) oligarchs based
in New York, London, Brussels, Istanbul and Tel Aviv - and would have financially enslaved the nation to Western banksters.

As bad as they may be, Armenia's oligarchs
are much preferable to Western, Turkish or Jewish oligarchs. Moreover, closer
European integration would have further buried Armenia under
western and Turkish products, ultimately killing Armenia's small and struggling domestic production industry.

Although
a strong case against European integration can be easily made with EU member
state Greece or Spain, I
would like to single-out Bulgaria simply because of all the aforementioned EU states in trouble today,
Bulgaria perhaps compares closest to Armenia. Therefore, let's take a quick look
at how EU membership has helped Bulgaria -

In
Bulgaria today corruption is rampant (even western Europeans are
participating in it), violent crime is high, unemployment is high,
energy costs are high and hundreds-of-thousands of Bulgarian are fleeing
their country to the EU's power-centers (i.e. France, Germany and
Britain). Similar
to Greece, which has been systematically reduced to being a subsidized
nation
barely making a living on German handouts, EU member Bulgaria is on
the verge of becoming a failed state.

Interestingly, in stark contrast to Western news reports about Armenia, reports about
Europe's most destitute nations are seldom covered in detail by mainstream news agencies or NGOs in the Western world. In
other words, they can't complain about Bulgaria's "oligarchs" because
all of Bulgaria's "oligarchs" reside in Brussels, London and
Washington. They cant even blame Moscow this time. Therefore, there is no
Western agenda to foment political unrest or a regime change in places such
Bulgaria. As a result, Western propagandists avoid seasoning news stories with
political incitement. As messy as Bulgaria is, as far as Western officials are
concerned, Bulgaria is slowly developing and progressing... because it is
bending-over to Western institutions and not Moscow or anybody else.

The most important lesson a nation like Bulgaria should be teaching
Armenians is that Western or European integration is not and will never be a cure for any of
Armenia's most pressing problems. Armenia's most pressing problems today are geographic (location),
geopolitical (superpower politics) and bio-cultural (Armenian culture). Armenians need to understand is that closer integration with the Western world
will not help it in any tangible way... other than perhaps increase
the
numbers of suicides, drug abuse, rapes, homelessness, child pornography,
pedophilia, sex tourism, marital divorce, single parenthood, teenage
pregnancies and homosexuals.

With closer EU integration, Armenia will be -
literally - sold to the highest international bidder. But the average Armenian today is too blinded by
emotions, too arrogant and too politically illiterate to understand any of this.

The multicultural/multiracial theme park known as the EU is imploding under its artificially induced weight.What
Armenia did NOT need was a haphazard entry into a sinking ship like the EU.

Armenians also need to understand that despite it being tiny, remote, impoverished,
landlocked, blockaded and surrounded by enemies in one of the most violent
regions of the world, Armenia has done remarkably well.And, as noted above, as primitive and nasty as they may seem at times, our
"oligarchs" in Armenia are much preferable to any Western-based
multinational mega corporation that would be running the show in Armenia once
the nation is subjugated by Western powers.

The
lure of Europe today is based in Europe's achievements in the past. Its
beauty, its civic order, its high standards-of-living, its open-mindedness, its cultural vitality are all a product of its past
achievements. However, the European spirit of yesterday no longer exists today.
Europe, western Europe in particular, has been a civilization in decline
since the defeat of National Socialism during the Second World War.
Rife with rigid bureaucracy, Holocaust worship, sexual decadence,
ultra-liberalism, militant-feminism, multiculturalism, inter-racialism,
consumerism, individualism, high taxes, fiscal waste, third world immigration and bloated
with a amalgam of peoples with little in common with each other, Europe is dying a slow death. If Germanic nations do not produce another Adolph Hitler, western civilization will certainly die within this century.

Therefore, those who pursue "European values" today are pursuing phantoms of the past.

Armenia
has a much better chance to preserve its national character
under the Russian umbrella. Armenia has the best chance of economic
progress within the Russian orbit. Armenia has the best chance of
survival as a nation-state in the south Caucasus as Russia's strategic
ally.

As I have been saying for years, despite it being tiny,
remote, impoverished, landlocked, blockaded and surrounded by enemies in one of
the most violent regions of the world, Armenia has done remarkably well -
thanks in large part to its decision to remain under Moscow's protective
umbrella ever since its independence from the Soviet Union.

We all need to somehow put aside our massive egos, debilitating emotions and
Cold War biases and recognize that Armenia's future, for better or for worst,
lies with Russia. In my opinion, Armenia needs to pursue its Russian course
even if it has to shed its ties with the Armenian Diaspora to do so. At the end of the
day, and in the big picture, Armenia's future looks brighter than that of most
European nations. At the end of the day, and in the big picture, Armenia's
future looks better than that of its immediate neighbors.

In the meanwhile, our hysterical compatriots in the
Diaspora and our Captain Americas in Armenia need to stop their poisonous and
self-destructive nonsense and begin the long and arduous process of
nation-building - within a Russian/Eurasian context.

Armenia needs to look North, South and Far East

For
the past twenty years Armenians have wasted too much time and precious
resources
pursuing Western values (e.g. Darwinian capitalism, mob rule,
Turkish-Armenian
friendship, gay rights and vagina monologues) with nothing but a
desperately impoverished and politically unstable nation to show for
it.

Official Yerevan
needs to stop wasting time and start concentrating efforts on further developing its north-south
axis (i.e. Russia and Iran) and seeking emerging markets in the East
(i.e. China and India).Only
with such a political approach will Armenia gain
a direct and unhindered access to developing markets in former Soviet
territory to
the north and to Iran and beyond to the south. Only with such a
political approach will Armenia be poised to become a major regional
trade hub.

Through Russia and Iran, Armenia will have direct access to markets stretching from western Europe to the Far-East. With its economic - and
financial - emphasis placed on its north-south axis, Yerevan will be
able to negate the adverse effects of the NATO imposed blockade the
country has been made to suffer for the past twenty years, negate the
importance of corrosive globalist entities such as the IMF and the
USAID - and negate
the importance of the Turkish-Armenian border.

No matter how one looks at it, Armenia's only
hope for a better future will come with closer integration within
Russia's political and economic zone, where Armenia as a nation-state
plays a strategic role and where Armenian products are well known and
better appreciated.

At
the end of the day, we Armenians will prefer Russia's harsh honesty to
the West's polite lies and hypocrisy. And here, incidentally, is a most
recent example of Russian honesty -

Yes,
Armenia may lose some sovereignty by entering the Customs Union. But
did we think this would not be the case with European Integration?
Armenia would have lost practically all of its sovereignty in the EU.
The fundamental difference here is that Russian officials tell it as it is, while
the Western officials lie and deceive. At the end of the day, Armenia
will be able to better maintain its national identity within the Russian
umbrella where unlike in lands colonized by genocidal Europeans,
hundreds nationalities have been able to preserve their identity within Russia for centuries.

Please revisit the following two blog commentaries for further insight on this topic -

I reiterate: Geographically, politically, culturally and genetically Armenia is an Eurasian
nation. Armenia's natural place is within the Russia-led Eurasian Union.
Ascension to the Customs Union is a
long-term, strategic step for Armenia, one that bodes well for the
nation's future.

But some of you may be asking, what about Artsakh?

The final status of Artsakh may perhaps be the only subject of contention between Moscow and Yerevan.

What does this mean for Artsakh?

Turks and Azeris recognize something most Armenians either do not understand or choose
not to see. Ankara and Baku know that the
only thing standing between them and their prize in the south Caucasus -
i.e. Armenia and Artsakh - is Moscow. In the big picture, Turks are not
afraid of Armenia's tiny military, nor are they afraid of the big
talking yet utterly worthless Armenian Diaspora. Historically, Turks
have only been afraid of the Russian Bear.

This
is why Armenia's antagonists have been placing much of their efforts on
trying to drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow. This is why
Yerevan's decision to enter the Customs Union was a important strategic
step to secure Armenia's long-term existence.

With
all due respects to the
brave men and women serving in the Armenian armed forces today, without
direct Russian support Armenia would simply be unable to mount an
effective, long-term
defense of Artsakh if or when her larger and wealthier neighbors decide to resort
to sustained violence once again. We were able to liberate Artsakh during the
chaotic years following the Soviet Union's collapse. But as my favorite Wall Street saying goes: Past performances do not guarantee future results.

Armenia
today is a demoralized (thanks to the country's opposition freaks), impoverished, tiny, remote, landlocked and
a blockaded nation surrounded by enemies in one of the most volatile
regions of the world - and the Armenian Diaspora is simply too busy obsessing
over genocide recognition, too busy assimilating and too busy
complaining about dirty toilets in Yerevan. Here we see where Diasporan priorities lie -

Did
it ever cross their "democratically" driven minds that a vast majority
of
Armenians in Armenia want nothing to do with their "western values".
Why are they imposing their suicidal values on a people who do not want
it or need it? Where's the democracy in that? Is this what the proud
Diaspora been reduced to? While the oil rich
dictatorship in Baku is busy spending billions of dollars acquiring
a large arsenal of modern weaponry from around the world, we Armenians
are busy infighting, pursuing Western fairytales and championing
gay-rights. The Diaspora has effectively
isolated itself from its homeland by continuing to do what the
Bolsheviks started - driving a wedge between itself and the homeland.
The Armenian Diaspora is no longer a factor in Artsakh.

Simply
put, Armenians cannot afford to be under any illusions today.
We cannot make the grave mistake of underestimating our enemies.
Militarily, Azerbaijan is getting stronger with time. If for some reason
Moscow gave Baku a green light to attack, we will, sooner or later,
lose Artsakh.

But Moscow will not give a green light. What will Moscow gain from strengthening Turkish, Islamic
and Western interests in the south Caucasus by weakening Armenia? Had
Turkish money been a factor in Russia's foreign policy formulations in
the south Caucasus, Moscow would have given Baku the green light many
years ago.

Artskah today plays a major very role in regional
politics. Artsakh's
existence as a Russia-friendly Armenian fortress serves the Kremlin's geostrategic
interests. Artsakh's existence serves to threaten Baku's Western financed energy transporation routes. Artsakh
has been the Russian sledgehammer hanging over Turkish
heads in the south Caucasus. More importantly, the unresolved dispute over Artsakh also ensures Yerevan's and Baku's political dependence on Moscow. Therefore
- strategically, economically, tactically and practically - Moscow will
be in no hurry to change the status quo in Artsakh. From an Armenian
perspective, the longer the
status quo is kept the better will it be for Armenia.

Now
that Yerevan's allegiance has been secured via Yerevan's decision to
join the Moscow-led Customs Union, I expect Moscow to earnestly begin pursuing
bringing Baku under its fold as well.

Of
course a best case scenario would be if Baku continues to remain
inflexible in
its dealings with Moscow and Yerevan. There are encouraging signs that Western
powers may be placing more emphasis on their dealings with Baku as a
result of the September 3 decision by Yerevan. With a Russia-friendly
government now in Tbilisi and with Yerevan firmly under Russia's wing,
Western policymakers will do everything they can to keep a
presence in Baku. The following is a revealing Washington Times article
about Azerbaijan that essentially reads like a tacky infomercial -

As
you can see, Western powers will do everything they can - even paint a
bloody dictator like Aliyev in peachy colors - just to keep Baku
engaged. But there is not much else they can do to turn the tide in the
south Caucasus. If Baku gives in to Moscow, which is what it will most
likely do sooner or later,
Yerevan will eventually be faced will coming to terms with a final
settlement.

As a final negotiated settlement with Baku, Yerevan may be expected to return
some of the "seven regions" taken outside of Artsakh proper. My biggest concern
here is the fate of the territories west of Artsakh, namely the strategic
region between Karvajar and Berdzor. In
return, Baku would be expected to recognize Nagorno Karabakh's
independence or its reunification with Armenia and perhaps return some areas of Artsakh currently under its control.

It is of paramount importance to mention that the degree and depth of
the concessions that would be expected from Yerevan is ultimately up to
the diplomatic acumen of Armenian politicians and the lobbying efforts of our political activists in Moscow.

Moscow will eventually want to resolve the dispute
between Yerevan and Baku under terms that meet its regional
interests. Therefore, if Armenians holding on to all of the liberated territories suites its interests,
it will support it. In my opinion, the primary responsibility of
holding on to every square meter of liberated Artsakh falls upon the shoulders of Armenian
politicians and Armenian lobbyists. Instead of bitching
and
complaining and fear-mongering and threatening closer relations with
Western powers, as some
of our idiots tend to do when things don't go their way with Moscow, we
Armenians need to draw on all our national assets and make a strong case
for Artsakh within the walls of the Kremlin.

Yerevan needs to convince
the Kremlin that keeping Artsakh whole and powerful is in the long-term
geostrategic interests of the Russian Federation. Therefore, Artsakh's
ultimate fate is in the hands of our politicians and activists and
subject to our ability to recruit, convince and/or manipulate Kremlin
officials into
our national cause.

Sadly,
however, I do not see much of an effort being
put into this vital strategic matter by Armenians in Armenia or by our
genocide recognition obsessed Armenians in the Diasporans. On one side,
we have Russophobic Captain Americas attempting to spread fear of
Russians and on the other side we have Russophile chobans expecting
Russian officials to decide everything. In such a situation, Armenians
simply need to be happy with whatever they (whoever they may be) decide
for us. After all, hasn't that been the case for much of our history?

As
always, our time and energy in the Diaspora is being wasted on
obsessing over genocide recognition and pathetically crying at the feet of Western
leaders every April 24. Instead
of wasting time in an anti-Armenian vipers nest like Washington or
Brussels, Armenians need to make a pan-national effort within the walls
of
the Kremlin.

The
recent controversy regarding political activist and intellectual Zori
Balayan's letter to Russian President
Vladimir Putin may be a sign that the dispute over Artsakh is beginning
to take center-stage. Zori Balayan's letter may have been a sign that
Moscow is seeking to get more involved in the
region. Although I'd like to refrain from drawing too many conclusions
from Balayan's words for now, I do think that what he did was an attempt
to test the waters for direct Russian involvement in Artsakh. Here is a relatively unbiased report on the matter from ArmeniaNow -

Unlike his most recent naysayers (i.e. armchair generals in the Diaspora and
Western funded opposition freaks in Armenia) Zori Balayan is a genuine
patriot and a man very worthy of respect. Balayan did not call for turning
Artsakh over to Russia. Balayan is calling on Russia to remember the
region’s political history and assume responsibility to settle the festering
matter in Armenia’s benefit. In other words, with the south Caucasus coming back under
the Bear's influence, farsighted patriotic men like Balayan are simply trying to
prepare the field of play for Armenia's benefit. Therefore, unlike what our Captain Americas, nationalist nutjobs and Russophobes are
claiming, the matter at hand is not about placing Artsakh under Russian
jurisdiction, it's about deriving the best outcome from the current geopolitical climate in the south Caucasus.

This issue should also be looked at within the context of the following conference -

Russian Expert: Nagorno Karabakh’s ties with Russia should be as strong as with Armenia:http://arka.am

Moscow is getting serious with regards to the dispute over Artsakh. The
pro-and-cons of Russian involvement in Artsakh can be debated. Yes,
Russia has indeed a historic responsibility in the region, a
responsibility to correct the wrongs of history. But, again,
I would like to emphasize here the paramount importance of
Armenian lobbying
efforts in Moscow. We cannot sit back and expect - or demand - that
Russians to do the right thing for Armenia. Armenians need to embark on a
collective,
pan-national effort to make a case for Artsakh's
territorial integrity. Armenians need to figure out a way to make
Artsakh a strategic asset for policymakers in Moscow. Armenians need to
work on making sure they will having a major input in whatever the final
settlement will look like.

In
the big picture, as
long as the territorial integrity of Armenia and Artsakh are
maintained; as long as Armenia and Artsakh maintains its armed forces;
as long as Armenian remains the nation's official language; and as long
as the reigns of power in Yerevan remains in Armenians hands, I have
absolutely no problems with
Russians increasing their presence in Armenia - or in Artsakh.

Russo-Armenian
interests in the south Caucasus converge for the most part. We are
seeing this historic convergence of interests between the two nations
extending to Artsakh as well.

Breaking
all diplomatic norms, Moscow has again gone out of its way - risking
serious political damage - to express its steadfast support for
the Armenian state. In a recent interview, the
commander of the 102nd Russian military base stationed in Gyumri,
Armenia stated that if Baku attempts to subjugate Artsakh by military
force, his troops may join Armenian forces in a retaliation against
Azeri forces -

In my opinion, Baku did not need to hear this
most recent Russian warning. Azeris have long known where Russia stands
on the issue of Artsakh. Their
fear of the Bear is the primary reason why Baku and friends have not
initiated major military hostilities against Armenia and Artsakh in recent years. Westerners,
Israelis, Turks, Azeris and Wahhabi Islamists know that the only thing
standing in their way against the total subjugation of the south
Caucasus is the Russian presence in Armenia.

In other words, the aforementioned antagonists are not truly
concerned about Armenia's tiny military nor do they fear Armenia's big talking, under performing Diaspora.
Simply put, they fear Russia. This is why Western agents (you know their names)
have been tasked with disseminating Russophobia in Armenia. Their desire
is to undermine Russo-Armenia relations so that it never reaches its potential.

Whats
more, the Russian commander's comments were not totally unprecedented.
As I have documented in my blog, Russian officials - both military and
civilian - have been making similar statements for many years - but
we Armenians have been too obsessed with genocide recognition in
Washington and too preoccupied with the pursuit of Western fairytales in
Armenia to have noticed it. In other words, Armenians have been
too busy with petty nonsense to be taking advantage of the pro-Armenian
political culture prevailing in the Kremlin today. This leads me to believe
that the comments by the Russian commander may very well have been
directed towards Armenians. The timing of the comments, coming on the
heels of Armenia's acceptance of the Russian-led Customs Union is also
significant in this context.

Needless to say, the Western press was quick to criticize the Russian commander's comments -

Nevertheless,
what's interesting here is how serious geostrategic calculations always
trumps money and lobbying. Turks and Azeris have been much smarter than
us Armenians in that they, unlike us Armenians, recognize the paramount
importance of the Russian factor in the south Caucasus and have
accordingly placed
a lot of emphasis on lobbying Russian officials and
spending large sums of money in Russia. Here we see billionaire Ara
Abrahamyan, one of Russia's most prominent Armenians and one who enjoys
close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, sounding the
alarm about the lack of political activism by Armenians in Moscow -

Thankfully, despite the very
lucrative dealings Russian officials have with Ankara and Baku, when it
comes to serious political matters we have seen Russian officials always
placing national interests above profit. Needless to day, nations such as Syria, Iran and Armenia
have enjoyed the fruits of Russia's mature foreign policy calculations.

For better or for worst, Moscow is the alpha and
the omega of Caucasian politics, and nothing and no one
will be changing this reality for the foreseeable future. Therefore,
let's all realize this, accept this, and try to exploit this situation
for Armenia's long term benefit.

Convincing Moscow for
common borders

Although
Armenia is now on the right path, too
many Armenians however continue to live only for today. There is no
strategic effort or vision to lay the foundations of a powerful Armenia.

Armenians
need to begin treating Armenia
as they would a delicate seed full of potential. This seed first needs
to be carefully sown and then it needs to be given a lot nurturing and
time in order for it to grow and blossom.

Armenia, as it currently exists, is not going to big places going ultimately because
the seed is not on fertile ground. Even with the best of domestic
circumstances, even if our despised oligarchs turn into lovable angels
overnight, Armenia will continue to remain embattled simply due
to its geographic location and its less-than friendly neighbors.

Simply put, Armenia needs to expand if Armenia is to have a bright
future.

Morality or ethics do not guide my thoughts. I am speaking in real
political and economic terms when I say Armenia needs to breakout of its mountain prison.

In
order to do that Armenians first need to stop chasing their tails with
nonsense such as "Democracy" and "Civil Society" and recognize that
Armenia's expansion to the
Black Sea or to the borders of the Russian Federation should be the one
and only long-term strategic agenda for the Armenian nation.

Despite
the wild fantasies of Washington's "Democracy Now(!)" activists in Yerevan,
Armenians must understand that Armenia's main problem today is not
its lack of "Democracy" or the absence "free speech" or "fair elections".
Rather, Armenia's primary problem today is geopolitical and geographical. Being
that Armenia is small, poor, landlocked, remote and surrounded by
hostile nations in a volatile political environment, we must recognize that there are essentially three
ways we can cure Armenia's serious aliments:

1) Physically move Armenia and place it next to a nation like
Germany

2) Pray that Moscow creates Pax Russica in the
Caucasus

3) Extend Armenia's borders to the Black Sea and/or to
Russia

Number one is a dream.Number two may be the most practical. But number three would
be the most ideal.Obtaining
a direct access to the Black Sea and/or establishing a common border
with the Russian Federation should be the single most important agenda
for officials in Armenia and for the Armenian Diaspora. In fact, such an agenda needs to be a
pan-national pursuit and something that should somehow be incorporated
into the Hay Dat. If we want Armenia to prosper - and to finally be
taken seriously by international bodies - Armenians simply need to
figure out a way of providing our small, impoverished, landlocked and
remote nation in the volatile Caucasus with an opportunity to breakout
of its geographic predicament. As long as Armenia remains in its current
situation, it will continue begging at the feet of the great powers.Simply
put, Armenia needs to break out of its current geographical
predicament. Armenia needs common borders with the Russian Federation. When
Armenians finally put aside their victim mentalities and stop looking
at the political West for any kind of assistance, they may finally come
to the realization that for Armenia to truly prosper it must gradually
begin formulating a long-term expansionist policy in the Caucasus.

It would be naive us to think Russians would never allow such a thing. Have we tried it to know what Russians will or will not
allow?

"I hope Armenia and Russia will some day have a common border"

The above comment was made by a Russian official
in Yerevan several years ago. The
official in question, who happens to be of Armenian decent, also called
for another Russian military base in Armenia. The following is my commentary at the time -

I
don't know about
another Russian base in Armenia (although it wouldn't hurt), but Armenia having a
border with the Russian Federation is certainly very desirable. I can only hope that a contingency plan to this effect is
being worked on by Moscow and Yerevan.
I can only hope that Armenian officials are doing their best to
convince their Russian counterparts that establishing a land connection
to Armenia is in Russia's best, long term interests. I can only hope
that Armenian officials are doing their best to convince their Russian
counterparts that having direct access to Armenia will level the playing
field in the south Caucasus and give Moscow direct control over all
three republics.

It is no secret that we Armenians are a very intelligent and talented people but our
intelligence and talents are almost always misplaced and/or misused. We need to
learn to apply our intelligence and talents to the strategic benefit of
the Armenian state.

Had
Armenians been politically sophisticated and thus farsighted, they would have
at least temporarily shelved their "Western Armenia" urges and began thinking
about extending Armenia's borders towards Russia via Azerbaijan or
towards the Black Sea via Georgia. Those
who still dream about liberating Western Armenia need to realize that
the keys to Western Armenia lies in Moscow (and to a lesser extent in
Tehran, if the regime there survives). In the meanwhile,
Armenians who look forward to Western Armenia's liberation should stop
placing hope in some worthless piece of paper being waved around by
worthless pro-Western politicians like Ara Papyan.

If done right, Kremlin officials will listen.Armenia's
presence in the Caucasus has for centuries been protecting Russia's
vulnerable southern regions. Armenians have been an effective hedge
against Muslims and Turks. Since Czarist times high officials in Russia have fully
understood this. It is up to us Armenians now to effectively exploit
this convergence of geostrategic interests between Russia and Armenia.The
geostrategic significance of Armenia is as important for Russian
officials today as it was for Czarist officials, if not more so.
In a region that suffers from powerful Turkic and Islamic influences,
Armenia's political independence and its close alliance with Moscow
will be zealously protected by Russian officials for the foreseeable
future. As a result, there exists a receptive political culture in the Kremlin for Armenians to tap into.

In the big picture, having a common border
with Russia is not only more
economically and geopolitically favorable to Armenia than extending into
Turkey's most desolate, impoverished and still landlocked eastern regions - but it is also more doable.

The
most important thing to do for Armenians today is to embark on a
long-term,
multi-pronged, pan-national campaign to convince high ranking Russian
(as well as Iranian officials) that a larger and more powerful Armenia on
their
borders is much more desirable to the existing state-of-affairs in the
south Caucasus. Armenians need to convince Kremlin officials, in
particular, that having Armenia as a neighbor is in their best national interests. Behind
closed doors, the following is more-or-less what
Armenian officials and political activists from around the world should be communicating to
their Russian counterparts:

Western
powers, Turkey, Georgia,
Azerbaijan and various other Islamic/Turkic tribes in the Caucasus are
the main
obstacles to a lasting peace and stability in the greater Caucasus
region. The only way to pacify the strategic Caucasus region is to
establish a common
border with Armenia through Georgia and/or Azerbaijan. Geostrategically
speaking, a powerful Armenia fully connected to and dependent on the
Russian Federation is the only effective way to solve the
Caucasus region's many pressing problems - including but not limited to
Islamic insurgency, pan-Turkism and Western expansionism.

Dissecting
the south Caucasus in such a manner would immediately drive the last
nail in the coffin for Western interests in the region. Such a scenario
would turn unreliable Georgia and Azerbaijan into hostages
to Moscow. Such a scenario would be a major blow to the Islamic
insurgency in the north Caucasus. Such a scenario would also preempt
any future inroads in the region by Turkey or by Islamists - or even by
Iran. By allowing Yerevan to establish a common borders with the
Russian Federation, Moscow would immediately create a more effective
balance-of-power in the volatile region where besides Russia there are
four other major influences - Western, Turkish, Iranian and Islamic.Moreover,
by establishing a reliable trade route to Iran via Armenia, Moscow can
more effectively implement major regional economic projects.

If Baku wants to get adventurous. If Baku tried to upset the prevailing
status-quo in the
region by
resorting to military means to regain Artsakh. If Baku (and Tbilisi) continues being troublesome in the region - why not allow the establishment of common borders between Armenia and Russia?

A
detailed plan to establish an Armenian presence on Russia's southern
border via Azerbaijan should be worked on and it should be reserved as a contingency
plan. This is where men like Zori Balayan can be helpful.

There are no other solutions to Armenia's core problems. Sooner or later, Armenia needs to expand.
I'm not a dreamer. Therefore, I fully realize the complexities of such a
suggestion. I also recognize that such a thing is wrought with risks.
However, the point is that if we want our homeland to free itself of its
severe socioeconomic and sociopolitical ailments and turn into a
powerful state that Armenians will be proud of and would want to live
in, Armenia's expansion to the Black Sea and/or to Russia is a
historic necessity that we as a nation must collectively embark upon.
This is a crucially important national project we Armenians must adopt
and hardwire into our thinking.

However, there is a catch.

In
order to convince Russian officials that a larger, more powerful Armenia will be in
Moscow's long-term, strategic interests, Armenian officials must first cleanse Armenia of all
its Western agents, Russophobes and it must refrain from playing footsie with Washington and/or Brussels. One
of the reasons why Moscow has been somewhat nervous with its dealing
with Yerevan is the ominous fact that Armenia's political landscape has
been utterly infested by
Western agents and Russophobes in recent years.

Armenia's
Western-led political opposition represents a significant portion of
Armenian society in and out of Armenia. Realizing that
Armenia is saturated by Western operatives and that the typical Armenian
today would sell his mother for a few Dollars or a Greencard, Russian
officials would not
want risking Armenia to grow too powerful, lest it loses control over
Yerevan. Therefore, Kremlin officials have sought to contain all
nations in the region, including their only ally, Armenia. While they have
surely ensured Armenia's survival in the south Caucasus, they have
nonetheless implemented a policy in the region that keeps all sides
weak and in conflict. Simply put, while it treats Armenia as a strategic
partner, at the same time Moscow fears that Armenia is vulnerable to
Washington's political machinations and has therefore placed Yerevan on a very short leash.

Therefore,
as a fundamental first step in alleviating the Kremlin's justified
concerns and suspicions with regards to the political maturity of
Armenians today, I am calling for a thorough purging of Armenia's
dangerous Western operatives.

Pax
Russica

The
only way the wild Caucasus can be pacified once again is through Pax
Russica. With Moscow acting as the sole arbiter in the region, Western
powers and their regional Turkish and Islamist allies will retreat.
Only with them gone will the "Great Game" end and will projects
such as the north-south highway and the Russia-Armenia-Iran railway
grow to fruition. Only then will Armenia have
a direct and unhindered access to developing markets in former Soviet territory to
the north and to Iran and beyond to the south.

The secret to Armenia's future success lies in
its ability to manipulate/exploit the Russian Bear for its long-term
benefit.We
need to put aside our EUortic fantasies and American wet dreams and get
to work. Armenians (preferably officials and business tycoons) need to
be a constant presence within the walls of the Kremlin. While Armenia's military is its tactical advantage, Armenia's alliance with Russia has to be made its strategic advantage.

Russia today has proven to be the last front in the world against
Anglo-American imperialism, Zionism, Globalism, Islamic
expansionism and pan-Turkism. Russia's presence today as an independent
superpower projecting its national interests upon
the global stage is ensuring the survival of western civilization,
apostolic Christianity and the traditional nation-state.

Syria has vividly shown us the great
importance of Russian Bear on the global arena.

Recent developments in the Middle East should again be reminding us Armenians of the
cruel and unforgiving nature of the region in which Armenia is
unfortunately located. We should be reminded that the obsessive pursuit
of "democracy" in Armenia as per Western demands is a dangerous red-herring for there are much
more important tasks that our underdeveloped and inexperienced nation needs to take on before
it can afford to play around with such nonsense.

Armenian
lobbyists, politicians, businessmen and military leaders must be a
constant presence within the walls of the Kremlin. Recent years have
clearly shown us that Yerevan's alliance with the Russian Bear is
Armenia's number one security guarantee for without a strong
Russian presence in Armenia there won't be an Armenia in the south Caucasus.
Recent years should also have shown us that Western institutions are a
grave threat for underdeveloped and vulnerable nations such as Armenia.

While
Western officials keep our Democracy Now(!) idiots preoccupied with things like gay
rights, civil society and free elections, keeping Armenia politically isolated and
economically stagnant is their ultimate game. Therefore, it would be wise to look
past the lofty rhetoric of Washingtonian whores such as Raffi Hovannisian and assess their actions in Armenia within the following geostrategic context -

The
ultimate goal of high level Western officials continues to be either
the strangling of
Armenia (through their NATO blockade) or its severing from Russia
(through their political activists in Armenia).

Thus,
it could
be said
that the West's ultimate intention is
to either destroy Armenia or place it under the mercy of their Turkic
and Islamic allies. After all, the primary reason why they are in the
south Caucasus to begin with is to push Russia out of the region so that Western
economic/energy interests can
exploit
Central Asian gas and oil without Moscow's meddling. The West realizes
that without Russia in the Caucasus, the very strategic region in
question will be their playground. However, we Armenians need to be sober enough to realize that without a Russian presence in Armenia, there won't
be an Armenian presence in the south Caucasus.

Although we have
countless idiots in Armenia and in the Diaspora that think we are living
in an enlightened age where the "rule of international law" and "human
rights" are respected, the fact is that Western powers, as well as the entire world, is still very much governed by the old
adage of - might makes right.

Let's never forget that "international law" is made by the powerful to control the weak.

Therefore, in this dog-eat-dog
world, we Armenians need to be very grateful that we have a very powerful
regional ally like the Russian Federation. We must be very grateful that a superpower is sincerely interested in
Armenia's survival as a nation-state in a very hostile and unforgiving
environment.Whereas Armenia is nothing but a geopolitical nuisance for Western powers, Armenia is a strategic asset for Russia.

This is what I mean -

"Armenia is more important to [Russia] than Israel is to the Americans"

These
words are not mine, they are said to be the words of Alexsei
Arbatov, a high level Russian official. The comment was taken from a book called - "Power
Games in the Caucasus: Azerbaijan's Foreign and Energy Policy towards
the West, Russia and the Middle East". The following is the full quote -

Armenia
is our only classic military-political ally...Armenia will not survive
without Russia, while, without Armenia, Russia will lose all its
important positions in the Caucasus...Even though Armenia is a small
country, it is our forepost in the South Caucasus. I would say that
Armenia is more important to us than Israel is to the Americans.

Regardless of what weapons Russians sell to
whom, and despite how some of our chobans are treated in Russia from
time-to-time, what Alexsei
Arbatov outlined above is more-or-less the prevailing political culture in Moscow, a culture we Armenians need to be cultivating.

We Armenians need to be farsighted enough and clever enough to begin exploiting this political culture in Moscow. This is the kind of lobbying we Armenians should be pursuing as obsessively as we pursue Armenian Genocide recognition in the US.

We need to be cultivating
deeper Russian-Armenian relations. We need to
be laying
the foundations of a permanent Armenian presence within the highest
offices of the Kremlin - because while Armenia's military may be its
tactical advantage when it comes to protecting Armenia from its enemies, we must make Armenia's presence within the walls of the Kremlin its strategic advantage.

We should
not be giving any of Washington's whores a political platform to spew
their dangerous agendas. We should not allow modern slave-masters such
as the Goldman Sachs, IMF or the USAID any foothold inside Armenia. And we
should not be fooling ourselves into thinking that European integration is a panacea
for Armenia.

At the end of the day, what it all boils down to is this: Any
Armenian today that disseminated Russophobia or wants to see Armenian ties to Russia curtailed is ultimately a traitor to the Armenian state (regardless of his or her motivation).What's more, Russia is
immeasurably more important to Armenia's survival in the south Caucasus
than the Armenian Diaspora; and lobbying in Moscow for Armenian interests is incalculably more important than pursuing Armenian Genocide recognition in the Western world.

While these words may be hard pills for many Armenians to swallow, digesting
these hard realizations will no doubt help the Armenian state in the long run.

After
our nationalist nutjobs, Captain Americas, Cold War relics and Russophobes are
done talking their
bullshit, the fact remains that a Russian presence in the south Caucasus has been the fundamental historic reason why we
have
an Armenia today to begin with.Allow
me to put this in an another way to help the reader better understand:

Imagine the south Caucasus as a table where Turks,
Azeris, Persians, Georgians, Islamists, Armenians, Western energy
interests and Russians sit. Now imagine this table effectively without
its Russian occupant. In another words, imagine the region without a
powerful Russia. Now imagine what clout or leverage or chances of survival our tiny,
impoverished, remote, landlocked, inexperienced, embattled and blockaded
homeland will have at that table.

Make
sense?

Well, this
is in essence what our Captain Americas and nationalist nutjobs are
seeking today.Again: At the end of the day, no Russia in the south Caucasus means no Armenia in the
south Caucasus.

We
as a nation can never lose sight of the fact that Russia is the alpha
and the omega of Caucasian politics and pray it remains that way. We
Armenians need to learn to navigate the very turbulent waters of the Caucasus accepting this
geopolitical reality. For
the foreseeable future (i.e. for as long as the region retains its
powerful Turkic and Islamic presence), Armenia will have to remain under
Russia's protective umbrella. For better or for worst,
Armenia is wed to Russia. Recognizing this, embracing this and exploiting this reality will help us Armenians go a very long way in the twenty-first century.We
need to put aside our self-serving interests, political ignorance and
emotional handicaps and for once recognize that Russia is a historic opportunity that we Armenians need to collectively wake-up to and take advantage of.

Although
Armenia is now clearly on the right track, the struggle between West
and Russia will nevertheless continue in the country. Western
powers
continue to be represented by a large number of obedient servants
deeply
embedded inside Armenian society. As a result, Armenia's troubles will
not end in the short-term, they may actually get worst as Western powers
now increase pressure on Yerevan due to President Sargsyan's
'deceiving' ways.

But on the bright side, Yerevan now has nothing to lose anymore and it can therefore push back against any Western incitement with total Russian backing.

Nevertheless, as predicted, the
Russian-camp
in
Armenia has come on top once again. This tells us that rational minds are continuing to make
strategic decisions for our tiny, impoverished, remote, landlocked and
blockaded nation surrounded by enemies in perhaps the most difficult
location on earth. For now at least, I can sleep a little better at
nights knowing that my Armenian homeland is on the right path.For now at least,I can sleep a little better at nights knowing that Armenian
officials understand the paramount importance having Russian boots on
the ground in Armenia.God bless
Russia. God bless
Armenia. And may God help protect and preserve Russo-Armenian relations from enemies both foreign and domestic.

Arevordi

October, 2013

***

Armenia Chooses Russian Trade Deal Over
EU

Armenia has decided to hang its hat with
its former Soviet ally
Russia instead of joining a European free-trade agreement, President
Serzh Sarksyan announced after meeting with Vladimir Putin. Armenia said it would join Russia in the Customs Union, as well
as engage in the Eurasian integration process instead of
negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU. The move is seen
as a political victory for Putin, who has been rounding up former
Soviet states to rival the EU, promising lower gas prices and
other trade perks.

"Russia supports the decision by Armenia to enter the customs
union ... We will fully work for this to happen," Putin said
at the bilateral talk at his countryside house outside of Moscow.

Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner and the largest
foreign investor in the small, landlocked Caucasus country. Trade
in 2012 reached $1.2 billion and Russian capital investment was
over $3 billion, or nearly half of Armenia’s foreign investment,
Putin said.
In July Armenia engaged in technical talks on a ‘deep and
comprehensive free-trade agreement' (DCFTA) with the EU, and
observers largely expected the country to initiate a free
trade agreement with the EU at the Vilnius summit in late
November. The EU has stated both publicly and privately
membership of the Russia’s Eurasian Customs Union is
“incompatible” with DCFTA.

The three-member customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus
was founded in 2010 as a counterweight to the EU. Putin hopes to
expand it into a ‘Eurasian Union’- a political and economic union
of post-Soviet states like Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Russia, and Tajikistan.

While President Putin said earlier the Eurasian Union would be
built upon the 'best values of the Soviet Union', critics claim
that the drive towards integration aims to restore the ‘Soviet
Empire’. It has been suggested the Eurasian Union could also include other
countries that have been historically or culturally close, such
as Finland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Vietnam,
Mongolia, Cuba and Venezuela. This is expected to incorporate the
countries into a common body where Russian would be the common
language of communication and economic cooperation.

Russia has so far failed
to lure Ukraine away from an EU trading alliance and relations
with Belarus have soured after they
detained and jailed the CEO of Russia’s largest potash
producer, Uralkali.

For
many years, Russian-Armenian relations were considered an
example of a strong and chaste friendship. In fact, Russian military and
border
guards are involved in ensuring the national security of Armenia. Russia
is a
member of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno–Karabakh
conflict, having its own ability to conduct negotiations. The Russian
business
presence in Armenia is also impressive. Last year, Russian investments
accounted for half of the total volume of foreign investments in the
country.

However, in the past two months, relations between Yerevan
and Moscow have resembled a kind of alienation. Until the very last
moment, the
recent visit by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to the Russian capital
was under
discussion, as well as a meeting and talks with Russian President
Vladimir
Putin.

Interest in the topic has been supported by the contributions of
numerous experts, journalists and politicians, both in Moscow and Yerevan. At the same time, the leaders of the two countries
refrained from comments and harsh evaluations during the Armenian president’s
visit. In fact, there was a simultaneous layering of several thorny issues, ensuring
their transition into a discussion about the quality of the relationship
between the strategic allies.

On the one hand, Moscow, being extremely jealous about any
penetration into the post-Soviet space by European and American interests, showed
concern about the signing of the Association Agreement between Brussels and
Yerevan, which is to take place in November at the upcoming Eastern Partnership
Summit in Lithuania.

In this case, unlike its integration in security forums (i.e.,
the CSTO), Armenia did not show particular interest in participating in the
Customs Union, and some of its officials even expressed skepticism about a
union of countries that have no common state border. On the other hand, Armenia has been worried about the
growing military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Baku: Even an
ordinary Armenian voter expressed dissatisfaction with rising prices for
Russian gas supplied into the Caucasus republic. It should be noted that all of
these topics in the relations between the two countries have come up in the
past. However, their connection in time has given the aforementioned negative
effect.

It is no secret that Moscow has used
leverages
to exert
pressure on its ally. Yet it would be wrong to explain the current compliance
of Sargsyan solely by the "maneuvers" of Moscow. Yerevan understands
as well as the others that the European vector, with all its visual appeal
today, does not compensate the role that Russia provides for the security of
the country and in ensuring of the status-quo in the Nagorno–Karabakh peace
process. The EU also has a serious lack of “hard power.” In
addition, the European strategic partnership with a longtime rival of
Armenia — Baku — in the field of energy does not incline Brussels to accept only
the "truth" of Yerevan.

Considerable risks are also associated with a
possible intervention in Syria and, in particular, with the potential
willingness of Turkey to intervene in the civil conflict in this Middle East
country. No one can guarantee that Ankara will not act tougher against Yerevan,
leaving the latter without Russian support. From hence comes the rather
pragmatic choice of Sarkisian. Should Moscow be celebrating a triumph? Well, yes and no.
On the one hand, it has once again proved the stability of its interests in
Eurasia, in general, and in the South Caucasus, in particular.

Russia does not
need to rebuild its regional policy, and the loyalty of its strategic ally has
been confirmed. On the other hand, Sarkisian’s choice in September is not the
end of the history but the start of a new phase. It will therefore be interesting to see the reaction of
Europe, the United States and other neighboring countries of Armenia (i.e., Iran
and Turkey). Much will depend on the tone of Russia’s subsequent discourse.

After all, keeping such an ally as Armenia is
beneficial for Moscow also. It is
not only in Armenia’s interests. It is extremely important that Russian
politicians and diplomats refrain from reveling in victory and operating on the
principle of "you can’t run away from us." It is not enough to
declare an appeal. It is important to be attractive in reality—and not only in
the sphere of security and defense.

Sergei Markedonov is a visiting research associate at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

China is determined to launch active cooperation with the Customs Union,
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang said during a meeting with his
Armenian counterpart Tigran Sargsyan on September 10. The press service
of the Armenian Government reports that the governmental delegation
headed by Tigran Sargsyan left for China on September 9 to participate
in the session of the World Economic Forum.

The
Armenian and Chinese premiers discussed the prospects for regional
cooperation. Sargsyan presented Armenia's decision to join the Customs
Union. "China understands Armenia's desire to take an active part in the
regional processes and China is also determined to launch active
cooperation with the Customs Union", Li Keqiang said.

He also expressed China's willingness to increase investments in
Armenia's economy and to import Armenian commodities. "We want to see
Armenian brandy, jewelry and precious stones on the Chinese market", he said.

Sargsyan
pointed out the significance of development of tourism and
establishment of direct air service between Armenia and China. As
regards the export of Armenian commodities, the Armenian premier said
that Armenian producers increase the output of Armenian brandies and
wine. He added that Armenia also produces cigarettes and asked his
Chinese counterpart to promote the sales of these goods on the Chinese
market. Sargsyan also called on the Chinese companies to take part in
the free trade zone opened in Armenia.

To recall, on September 3 Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that
Armenia had made a decision to join the Russia-led Customs Union.

Armenia
will get $100 million from a
Eurasian Economic Community
anti-crisis fund, a Eurasian Development Bank official said Wednesday.
The 556-km corridor, designed to improve transport links between
Europe, the Caucasus and Asia, in particular between Eastern Europe and
western Asia, is to be completed by 2017. In January 2010, the Armenian
government approved an investment
program for the North-South transport corridor, and a framework finance
agreement between Armenia and the Asian Development Bank worth a total
of $500 million. Wednesday’s decision came after discussions between
the Eurasian
Development Bank’s Deputy President Sergei Shatalov and Armenia’s
Transport and Communications Minister Gagik Belaryan, the ministry’s
press service told RIA Novosti.

Iranian,
Russian and Chinese companies are interested in
participation in the construction of the Armenian section of the
Armenia-Iran railway, Secretary of Armenian National Security Council
Arthur Baghdasaryan told journalists on Friday, ARKA agency reported.
"Iran has already expressed its readiness to finance construction of a
railway in its territory and through Armenia. Various Iranian, Russian
and Chinese companies are interested in the project," Baghdasaryan said.

The Secretary of the Security Council stressed that the development
of railway transport has strategic importance for Armenia and the
construction of an Armenia-Iran route is very ambitious, but still an
important state program. Baghdasaryan reminded that currently, Iran is building modern railway
junctions which will link it with India, China, and Central Asia.
Subsequently, ties with Iran mean a large diversification of
destinations for Armenia.

The North-South (Iran-Armenia) railway will give opportunity to
Armenia to use an alternative way of transporting energy resources and
other goods and getting access to the external world. In November, 2011, then Minister of transportation and Communication
Manuk Vardanyan said that the feasibility study of the project is ready,
the group led by Deputy Transport Ministers of Armenia, Iran and Russia
worked on it.

According to experts, around $1.7-2.8 billion is required for the
implementation of the project. Currently, the construction of the
railway is being discussed with Russia, Iran and China. The World Bank
and Asian Development Bank expressed interest in this project.
Currently, railway operations involve only Armenia and Georgia. A
railway to Iran, which was declared a priority project, will give
opportunity to open an alternative way for transporting energy resources
and other goods.

Prior to the start of the World Economic Forum, Rasia FZE announced in a
meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan the achievement of
a key milestone for the Southern Armenia Railway, including the release
of a highly favorable feasibility study and the recommended railway
design route from China Communications Construction Company ("CCCC").

Joseph Borkowski, Chairman of Dubai-based investment firm Rasia FZE
which owns the 50-year concession for the Southern Armenia Railway,
highlighted the strong economic viability and regional importance of the
railway, as demonstrated by the feasibility study. Having reached this
key milestone, Rasia will now move towards securing essential regional
cooperation for the following financing, construction and operating
stages of the project.

The feasibility study results indicate that the Southern Armenia Railway
will cost approximately US $3.5 billion to construct, have a length of
305 kilometers from Gagarin to Agarak, and provide a base operating
capacity of 25 million tons per annum. The railway will have 84 bridges
spanning 19.6 kilometers and 60 tunnels of 102.3 kilometers, comprising
40% of the total project length. The selected railway alignment is
nearly 44 kilometers shorter than previously estimated from Gavar to
Agarak and will include the Gagarin to Gavar connection to the existing
railway network, operated by the JSC Russian Railways subsidiary South
Caucasus Railway CJSC.

Mr. Borkowski expressed his sincere gratitude for the time invested by
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan in Dalian, China and for the strong
support of Minister Beglaryan and the staff of the Ministry of Transport
and Communication over the past year. Mr. Borkowski also reiterated his
great satisfaction with the exceptional work and dedication of the CCCC
team, enabling completion of the feasibility study ahead of schedule,
and the positive technical cooperation with General Director Mr. Viktor
Rebets and his team at South Caucasus Railway CJSC.

As the key missing link in the International North-South Transport
Corridor, the Southern Armenia Railway will create the shortest
transportation route from the ports of the Black Sea to the ports of the
Persian Gulf. The Southern Armenia Railway will establish a major
commodities transit corridor between Europe and the Persian Gulf region,
with conservative long-term traffic volume forecasts of 18.3 million
tons per annum. Once the railway is completed, transport costs and times
for the region are expected to improve substantially, fostering greater
regional trade and economic growth while dramatically strengthening the
Armenian economy. The feasibility study suggests a National Economic
IRR for Armenia exceeding 11%. The implementation of the Southern
Armenia Railway Project is a top strategic priority for Armenia and the
region.

Armenia May Take Advantages of Russia-Proposed Eurasian Corridor if Abkhazia Railway Section Opens

Armenia may take advantages of the Eurasian
corridor that Russia has proposed to open if the railroad stretching
across Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia opens, Aram Safaryan, head of an NGO
called Integration and Development, said Wednesday in Novosti
International Press Center. The Russia-proposed corridor stretches from
its Far East region to the European Union's border.

"Specialists have calculated that if this corridor works properly, in
accordance with its technical and economic regulations, cargo
transportation from the Far East to Europe will take less time, up to 50
days, in the future thanks to immense government investments, and it
may become cheaper," Safaryan said.

"But only the opening of the Abkhazian section of the railway would give this advantage to Armenia."

Safaryan said if the Abkhazian railway starts functioning, it would
benefit Armenia's trade with Russia and its partners.

"China is our second biggest trade partner after Russia, and the first
partner, if gas component is not taken into account. Our trade turnover
amounted to almost $500 million in 2012."

Safaryan also said that prices for Chinese goods may be other, if the Abkhazian section is opened.

"The
status of observer at Shanghai Cooperation Organization will become
reasonable if we solve important problems within the Commonwealth of
Independent States," he said. In his words, specialists find prospects
for the opening very high given political processes in Georgia.

Minister
of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan dispelled
the public’s doubts over the deal on Russian gas price hike for Armenia.
The stir rose following Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan’s statement that
no price increase agreement actually exists.Earlier, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) opposition party’s parliamentary group secretary Aram Manukyan expressed discontent over
inability to procure the text of the gas agreement. As Movsisyan
noted, commenting on the above, Manukyan was given the copy of the
agreement, as instructed by Prime Minister, ARKA reported.

Also, Russia is ready to lift a 30 percent customs duty on export of natural gas to Armenia, Movsisyan said. Currently Armenia pays $270 for one thousand cubic meters of Russian
gas supplied to the country across Georgia. Of that amount $189 dollars
is the price of gas, and the rest is the 30% customs duty.

"We
have done quite a lot of work with the Russian side. After the September
3 announcement on Armenia’s joining the Russia-led Customs Union, the
gas delivery contract between the two governments will be revised and
simplified. This means the Russian side will not apply customs duty on
gas exports to Armenia. We hope that a revised contract will be signed
before the end of this year," Movsisyan said.

According to the minister, the price of gas for Armenia will be the same as in Russia plus transportation costs. However, Movsisyan said this will not affect the price for local
consumers. “Our calculations show that revised contract will not
entail a price rise or price drop,” he added.

Russia
plans to expand its military presence in Armenia, Haykakan Zhamanak
daily said. According to the paper, a staff addition is scheduled at the
Gyumri military base No. 102. Russian military officials with their families - up to 3000 persons –
are expected to arrive for service at the military base. The Armenian
city is getting ready for guests, with several Armenian families to be
relocated to new homes.

At the same time, Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan neither confirmed nor denied the report. Yerevan and Moscow are planning to ratify an important agreement,
envisaging direct purchases from Russian military plants, in the near
future, Hraparak daily said earlier citing sources at parliament.

According to the daily, the deal will provide Armenia with exclusive
rights. “There’s a similar agreement with Belarus, yet it contains some
reservations, which the deal with Armenia does not,” the daily said.

In June 2013, during the visit of the Russian Security Council
Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to Armenia, a military and technical
cooperation agreement was signed with Russia. The agreement stipulates
for each side to supply military products with the same specifications
as for one’s own armed forces. The agreement also enables the supplier
to exert control over the presence of products and their compliance with
the intended use to be described in an additional treaty.

According to another deal, Armenia and Russia will form a joint defense
enterprise as well as the border guards and emergency situation experts
training centers. With Russia’s assistance, Armenia’s defense industry
will launch production of ammunition, armory, as well as form a repair
base for land, air and air defense forces.

Armenia
would like to acquire observer status in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), a post-Soviet Eurasian security bloc,
and it will need support from China to get it, Armenian Prime Minister
Tigran Sargsyan said Tuesday. Sargsyan, on a visit to China, was assured
by his Chinese
counterpart, Li Keqiang, that China would consider the matter with its
partners in the SCO, the Armenian government press service said. Keqiang
said China welcomed Armenia’s wish to become involved in
regional affairs. The SCO will hold a summit meeting in Bishkek,
Kyrgyzstan, on September 13. Founded in 2001, the SCO comprises Russia,
China, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization aims to
consolidate efforts to counter terrorism and radicalization among member
countries, and to coordinate work in other areas such as politics and
trade. Iran, Afghanistan, India, Mongolia and Pakistan have observer
status in the organization.

Russia is ready to finance 35 percent of the cost of construction of a
new power unit for Armenia’s nuclear power plant, Vahram Petrosyan, the
secretary of a presidential council on nuclear power safety, said
today.

Armenian authorities said they will build a new nuclear power plant
to replace the aging Metsamor plant. The new plant is supposed to
operate at twice the capacity of the Soviet-constructed facility.
Metsamor currently generates some 40 percent of Armenia’s electricity.
But the government has yet to attract funding for the project that was
estimated by a U.S.-funded feasibility study to cost at as much as $5
billion.

“We are looking for new investors. As for Russia, they are willing to
participate in the project by funding 35 percent of its cost. The money
will be used to purchase the necessary equipment,” Petrosyan said at a
news conference after a meeting of the council.

The plant is located some 30 kilometers west of Yerevan. It was built
in the 1970s but was closed following a devastating earthquake in 1988.
One of its two VVER 440-V230 light-water reactors was reactivated in
1995. On September 3, Russian president Putin said experts from Russian
state nuclear company Rosatom and Armenian experts will work to extend
the service life of the Armenian nuclear power plant in Metsamor for
another 10 years until 2026.

Petrosyan said the extension of the service life of the facility requires at least $150 million. On Wednesday, President Serzh Sarkisian met with the chairman of the
presidential Nuclear Energy Safety Council (NESC), Adolf Birkhofer, who
has arrived in Armenia to participate in the regular session of the
NESC.

The President of Armenia and Chairman of NESC spoke about planned
works aimed at the enhancement of the security level of the Metsamor
nuclear power plant and its current state. In that regard, the parties
stated that the Metsamor plant has the necessary projected level of
seismic stability. Serzh Sarkisian and Adolf Birkhofer also spoke about
issues related to the future operation of the plant, the construction of
a new energy unit, and cooperation with the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), including the results of the OSART mission.

After the meeting, President Serzh Sarkisian and Chairman Adolf Birkhofer participated in the session of the NESC. The President began by underscoring that it would be difficult to
overestimate the importance of cooperation in the council, considering
the special role that nuclear energy plays in ensuring energy security
for Armenia.

President Sarkisian thanked the IAEA, the governments of the Russian
Federation, US, Czech Republic, Great Britain, and Italy, and the
European Commission for their assistance.

“The Republic of Armenia has been constantly improving its domestic
legislation and has been fulfilling, in good faith, her international
obligations,” the President said.

The governments of the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation
will soon sign an agreement on cooperation in the area of nuclear
safety, the President said. The agreement will allow Armenia to:

– develop infrastructure for nuclear safety in preparation for the construction of new energy units based on Russian designs.

In October 2012, the Governments of the Republic of Armenia and the
United States signed a memorandum of understanding pertinent to the
energy (including nuclear energy) sector. The document allows the two
countries to cooperate more closely in the area of peaceful use of
nuclear energy.

President Sarkisian mentioned that a great amount of work has been
done with the assistance of the IAEA and international experts towards
improving the seismic stability of the Metsamor plant. In 2012, during
routine, preventive renovations, supporting structures were installed to
enhance the seismic stability of the main structures and components of
the plant, which are pivotal from a safety point of view.

In 2013, the IAEA OSART sent a mission to Armenia that registered
sufficient progress but also raised concerns related, particularly, to
the management of radioactive waste. The President said experts have already started to develop a strategy
on safe management of radioactive waste with the technical assistance
of the European Union.

“Armenia reiterates her intention to develop nuclear energy which has
a special place in the country’s energy development program. Only
nuclear power can allow us to maintain the proper level of the country’s
energy security and independence,” President Sargsyan stressed in his
remarks.

Tourism industry executives from Armenia and Russia’s St. Petersburg meet in Yerevan for round-table discussion

Tourism
industry executives from Armenia and Russia’s St. Petersburg met today
in Yerevan for a round-table discussion on how to boost mutual tourist
visits “This is a step that may make bilateral relations in tourism area
closer and that gives an opportunity for establishing new ties and
exchanging experience,” Maria Baghramyan, head of Yerevan municipality’s
division in change of tourism, told ARKA News Agency. “We are planning
to organize fun trips and press tours in the future to make Yerevan
more attractive for Petersburgers,” she said. Some 30 representatives of
Armenian travel agencies, hotels, restaurants, education establishments
training specialists in tourism and editors of tourist magazines were
present at the meeting. At the round-table discussion, St. Petersburg
was presented as a tourist product that will be interesting to Armenian
tour operators.

Armenia's
readiness to join the Customs Union meets its national interests, and
will open up prospects for its development, will increase its prosperity
and strengthen its position and prestige in the region and around the
world, former Russian ambassador to Armenia Vyacheslav Kovalenko said
today during a Moscow-Yerevan video conference.

"It is
elementary, and it is unclear on what Armenia’s aspiration to sign
association agreement with the EU was based, which would block, in my
opinion, the only possible option for Yerevan to consolidate its allied
relations with Russia through the Eurasian process ," said Kovalenko.

The
diplomat said he never doubted that Armenia would eventually choose
the Eurasian integration, noting that the allied relations between
Armenia and Russia are based not only on military-technical , trade and
economic, but also on humanitarian cooperation.

"Humanitarian
cooperation implies development of close human relationships: it is the
Russian language, mutual enrichment between the two cultures, it is the
planned opening of the branch of Moscow State University in Armenia,”
said Kovalenko.

According to him, the creation of the Armenian
branch of the University will allow young people from the southern
regions of Russia to
pursue higher education not in Moscow but in Armenia and in the future
to stay at homeland and serve it. He also stressed the importance of
around 100 centers of Russian language in Armenia.

Director of
the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, said Armenia and Russia
are interconnected by many threads, and neither side wants to cut them.
"Russia is important for Armenia in terms of its security. Armenia in
turn has strategic significance for Russia which wants to be present in
the South Caucasus as a significant force,’ Iskandaryan said.

Director
of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute, Alexander Makarov, added
that the military- political cooperation has always been a priority in
relations between the two countries. "If we talk about economic
cooperation, Russian investors are the main investors in Armenia, the
Russian capital is present in almost all areas of the economy", he said.

Russia
is interested in keeping some
balance in South Caucasus and for that reason it should develop
relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan. “Armenpress” reports making a
reference on “RIA Novosti” that such opinion expressed Russian
political expert Andrei Kazantsev. “By implementing such policy Russia
will have opportunity to control the situation in its Southern borders,”
he said. But experts think that it will not be easy for Russia to do
so. “Armenia is the official ally of Russia, they are both members of
Collective Security Treaty Organization,” said expert on international
policy Andrei Suzdaltsev. In the opinion of experts the situation on
Nagorno-Karabakh can have
much more unpleasant continuation. Andrei Kazantsev mentioned that it is
not accidental that Azerbaijan buys lots of weapons not only from
Russia but also from the whole world. “In such situation it is very
important that intermediary countries including Russia implement steps
to weaken tension in the region,” he said.

Russian Commander: Russian Base’s Main Task is Defense of Armenian Air Space

The
Russian air base of Armenia will soon be equipped with new helicopters.
The Commander of the Russian Aviation in Armenia Alexander Petrov told
about it to the journalists after the solemn ceremony devoted to the
15th anniversary of the formation of the Russian air base in Armenia.
“The Russian air base in Armenia will soon
be modernized and expanded. We have already an agreement and works are
being carried out”, - said Alexander Petrov. Armenpress reports that
concerning the activity of the base, the Commander of the Russian
Aviation in Armenia stated that the main task of the air base is to
protect the air space of the Republic of Armenia, which has been done
and will be done with honor. “During the fifteen years of our activities
we have had both difficulties and good days. During this period of time
we have accomplished all the tasks successfully and will continue
working with the same readiness”, - said Alexander Petrov. On October 18
the 15th anniversary of the formation of the Russian air base in
Armenia was celebrated in Erebuni Airport.

Russian troops stationed in Armenia could openly side with it in case
of a renewed Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Nagorno-Karabakh, according to
their top commander, Colonel Andrey Ruzinsky.“If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh
by force the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in
accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the
framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),”
Ruzinksy told the Russian Defense Ministry’s “Krasnaya Zvezda” newspaper
in a recent interview.Ruzinksy answered a question about the mission of the Russian base headquartered in Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri. That mission was upgraded by a Russian-Armenian defense agreement
signed in 2010. The agreement extended Russia’s basing rights in Armenia
until 2044. It also committed Moscow to supplying its South Caucasus
ally with more weapons and military hardware.

The Russian base, which numbers between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers, has
since been bolstered with modern weaponry, reportedly including
Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles. The Russian military also plans
to deploy combat helicopters there soon. The Russian air force unit in
Armenia currently has 16 MiG-29 fighter jets.

Armenian officials and pro-government politicians have claimed before
that the 2010 defense pact mandates direct Russian military involvement
in the Karabakh conflict if Azerbaijan acts on its threats to reconquer
the disputed territory. Russian officials have not explicitly confirmed
this in their public statements made until now.

The Russian troops in Armenia hold joint exercises and trainings with
Armenian army units on a regular basis. Around a thousand soldiers from
the two armies, backed up tanks, helicopters and artillery systems,
practiced a joint military operation as recently as in August. According to Ruzinsky, more such war games are planned for next year.
“I believe that we need to further develop our field cooperation, if I
may put it way,” he said.

The Russian base commander also revealed to “Krasnaya Zvezda” that a
group of his senior officers and their Armenian colleagues recently
jointly toured “areas of combat engagement.” “We plan to increase such
activities next year,” he said without elaborating.

Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union was extremely important
not only for Russia but first of all for Armenia itself, according to
director general of EurAsEC institute.Speaking at a press
conference in Yerevan, Vladimir Lepekhin said that Armenia is much freer
in taking decisions than Russia and can get lots of dividends from
joining the CU. “This first of proceeds from Armenia’s interests and the
country can set conditions for the CU membership and seek their
realization,” he said.

According to him, Armenia’s main
interests are tariffs for gas and the Customs Union membership will
allow resolving the issue to Yerevan’s benefit.Lepekhin agreed
that Russia is in a way dependent on the West. “The dependence is rather
strong, however, Europe is even more dependent. It’s possible to reach
an agreement with Russia, as the problems mostly refer to resources, but
we can’t say the same about Europe,” Panorama.am quoted him as saying.According to Novosti Armenia, Lepekhin also said that the Customs Union
is not an important geopolitical project but a union aiming to improve
turnover between the member states.

During a meeting with
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sept 3, Armenian leader Serzh
Sargsyan said Armenia is ready to join Customs Union, with further plans
to be involved in formation of the Eurasian Economic Union. Mr.
Putin supported the initiative, voicing readiness to assist Armenia in
the process. He also noted that Russian Railways may invest 15 billion
rubles in development of Armenia's railway network. The
Customs Union was formed in 2010 to include of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and
Russia; Kirghizia and Tajikistan later expressed willingness to join
the Union.

A
group of economists have drafted a research upon the initiative of the
Eurasian Development Bank on “Economic Calculations of Armenia’s
Integration Processes with the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic
Union.”

The group, lead by Ashot Tavadyan, head of the Faculty of
Economic-Mathematical Methodology at the Yerevan State University of
Economics, summing up the results of the four-month research told the
press on Wednesday that in the event of Armenia’s membership in the
Customs Union (CU) “an Armenian citizen will have a safer and better
life”.

The economist shared an opinion that Armenia has not matured for
European standards yet and could have found itself “in trouble”, just
like Baltic countries have, if it entered the EU free trade area.

The experts have concluded that with the CU Armenia may have a 4-percent
economic growth in the initial period, while in case of joining the EU
free trade area that index would have ranged between two and three
percent only (they referred to European experts’ analysis of Armenia’s
Association Agreement with the EU to draw parallels).

As opposed to Bagrat Asatryan, former chairman of the Central Bank, who voiced rather pessimistic perspectives in this concern, Tavadyan claims the Customs Union agreement with Armenia is “about economic security, as part of security in general”.

“This is an agreement of unprecedented investments and employment
growth,” stated Tavadyan. The economist says that the public transport
fares will drop in Armenia,
as Russia has promised to make a $470-million investment in that field.

“The other important factor is the $100 million investment by the
Eurasian bank, which will ensure high tempo of economic growth in our
country. As for the energy bloc, joining the CU means we will have a
good chance of exploiting the nuclear power plant and building a new one
in the future,” says Tavadyan, predicting that in the future Armenia,
as a CU member, would import natural gas from Russia at a 30-percent
cheaper price: today’s $270 per 1,000 cubic meter would cost $187.

“It will happen automatically, since the union ideology provides for
fair competition, meaning that the gas tariff, in our case, would
include only transportation and transit fees,” assures Tavadyan.

Another conclusion is that in the event of joining the CU Armenia's
labor migrants would send 3 percent more remittances to Armenia, as
they would have less trouble “finding employment and dealing with
administrative issues”.

Richard Giragosian: Armenia is in danger of returning to a
vassal state within the Russian orbit

Armenia needs more maneuvers in handling its ties with the European Union and Russia
in its foreign policies, an Armenia scholar said in an interview with
Xinhua on Tuesday. There are two agreements pending between the EU and
Armenia -- the
Association Agreement (AA), or political document for integration with
the EU, and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), an
economic and trade document with the EU, said Richard Giragosian,
director of the Regional Studies Center. The two documents are closely
related, said Giragosian.

"The AA has largely been negotiated under understanding that the key
component will be that DCFTA. Therefore, if that is removed, what is
left is seriously diluted -- giving Armenia very little, and giving the
EU much less," he said.

Joining the Russia-led Customs Union closes the door for Armenia's
access to European markets, and removes the availability of the DCFTA.

"Therefore, the EU reaction has been extremely negative but on a
justifiable ground: it was a complete surprise, and it endangered
several years of commitments and negotiations between Armenia and the
EU," he said.

"More importantly, it also shows that EU investment and expectations
in Armenia have been diminished. Therefore, Armenia is in danger of
looking insincere and incompetent in the eyes of the EU," said
Giragosian.

Armenia will lose an opportunity for much bigger markets if it turns
away from Europe, while the Customs Union offers Armenia nothing in
terms of trade with Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS), he said.

Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan has said that Armenia is ready to join the
Russia-led Customs Union. Giragosian said Sargsyan took a very bold but
unexpected decision to
commit Armenia to joining the Customs Union at a recent meeting in
Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In many ways this decision was a strategic mistake, which makes
Armenia no longer be capable of signing the DCFTA with EU, he said.

"Four years of negotiations between the EU and Armenia has now been
rejected, and unfortunately Armenia is in danger of returning to a
vassal state within the Russian orbit," he said. "Armenia for the past five years has been struggling to strengthen
sovereignty and independence and to pursue a foreign policy designed to
give more options and more space to Armenia to engage with the West
while remaining a security partner of Russia."

Yet, currently there is a reversal in this trend of diversification,
and the real danger for Armenia now is that it is becoming a little more
than a Russian garrison-state.

Giragosian believed that economically Armenia is looking to the EU,
while militarily it keeps a security agreement with Russia. "This
balance is now in danger of being lost," he noted. Giragosian said that Armenia's decision might be a result of Russian
pressure, which would reveal a deeper problem of the nature of the
relationship or alliance between Russia and Armenia. If it was not a result of Russian pressure, that's another problem
because it shows the weakness of the Armenian leadership and government,
he said.

But the real question for Ukraine, Moldova and other former Soviet
states is how to balance the need to overcome isolation and the reality
of having a strong, assertive and aggressive Russia on their borders, he
said. Currently, Armenia has been actively developing ties beyond its
reliance on Russia in the military cooperation, said Giragosian. It has
deepened ties with NATO's Partnership for Peace Program as well as
bilateral military ties with a number of other countries, including the United States, Germany and Greece.

Giragosian also said that over the past four years Armenia has been
negotiating with the EU, and the Russians have never protested, opposed
nor blocked. What happened over the past several weeks was a rather late change in
Moscow to exercise greater control, power and influence within the
so-called near abroad -- the former Soviet states, added the scholar. He said that Russia's playing the Armenia card was a message of
strength to the West, to the United States, and more importantly to
Ukraine and Belarus.

It is much more important strategically for Russia to bring Ukraine
into the Customs Union. This is also linked to Russia's policy over Syria
as well, in terms of confronting and containing any kind of Western or
European interference within its own sphere of influence.

"It is interesting that the Russian position is based on inherent
weakness, not strength. And this is actually a desperate move to
reinforce the decline in Russia's long-term power and influence," he
said. "But I don't think over the long term it will work, because there is
no incentive, this is more of stick than carrot. But for a small country
like Armenia, it is going to be difficult to try to regain more options
and more strategic maneuverability," said Giragosian.

"Russian policy has been not very strategic -- a much shorter,
tactical response, counterproductive I would argue as well. Because in
the long run, Armenia within this EU framework is a win-win prospect,"
he said.

He added that there has not been any danger of Russia losing Armenia
as an ally in this region. Moreover, Armenia is the only reliable
country for Russia in this region, the only member of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization, the only country to host a Russian
military presence.

"Armenia should do a better job in actually manipulating its
geographic isolation and vulnerability, and think strategically in
longer term, rather than giving in too soon in exchange for a little
benefit," noted Giragosian.

Former Russian Ambassador to Armenia is Indignant at Richard Giragosian

The former ambassador of Russia to Armenia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko,
comments on recent interview by political expert Richard Giragosian
with Arminfo news agency. Here is the full text of his commentary, as
he asked:

"In his recent interview with Arminfo news agency, the head of the
Centre for Regional Studies, Richard Giragosian, has again cast doubt
upon Armenia's decision to join the Customs Union. He said nothing new.
Nevertheless, I think it is important to draw attention on arguments,
which supporters of orientation towards the EU (including Giragosian)
use, saying that the way of further development chosen by Armenia is
wrong. In this context, they separate not only the economic prospect
but also the fact that Armenia lost confidence as a partner of
the western countries. Giragosian regrets that almost four years of
work for signing of the Association Agreement and DCFTA with the EU
which had to be signed in Vilnius in November of the current year, were
in vain. Coming forward from the position of Armenia's
patriot, Giragosian regrets that from now on Brussels will
start reducing its programmes that cost millions EUR, which were earlier
foreseen for making reforms. In such an attitude I see, at least, two
moments which do not enhance Mr Giragosian's "patriotic position". He
seems to forget that not everything is sold in this world for money,
that Armenia is sovereign state which does not accept diktat of the EU,
and its conditions hidden under the pseudo-democratic principle "more
for more". What the EU offered in the form of the association
relations, is not so much good for the national interests of Armenia.
Why did the EU refuse Yerevan's aspiration to preserve its foreign
political course, saying about incompatibility of Armenia's
participation in the European integration and Eurasian processes
simultaneously? The Europeans put the question point-blank" "either-or".
which in fact would mean changing of the political course and canceling
of the allied relations with Russia. Today, Giragosian says quite the
contrary, that just joining the Customs Union will "become a dramatic
changing of Armenia's course". He seems not to be aware that Moscow but
not Brussels accepted both directions (European and Eurasian), and
thought that their simultaneous development is possible as
they replenish each other. Giragosian says nothing about it, but
insists that Russia forced Armenia to refuse the European development
course in order to please its empire ambitions.

Mr. Giragosian is not embarrassed
to lie just
to help the EU to
save its face. He is not ashamed to call Armenia's position a shame,
a strategic mistake, a lost opportunity. What he wants to say is
that the EU is right in whatever it does, that its policy is a
blessing for Armenia, while the Customs Union is nothing but a mistake
for it. But by saying this he denies Armenia its right to choose.

What has the EU done for
Armenia after all? Several millions
EUR given to the country so it could unify the requirements to
the products it makes for export, annual grants of some 200 million
EUR, soft loans the country will have to repay one day and
endless promises of financial assistance and investments. It's not very
much, is it?

Kovalenko says that experts, like Mr.Giragosian,
blame Russia for almost all difficulties and problems experienced by
Armenia. "There is no secret in assessment of the trade, economic, and
investment relations between the two countries. Russia is a major
foreign trade partner of Armenia. Its annual investments total 3 bln USD
(which is as much as the USA's investments throughout the period of
Armenia's independence. The private transfers from Russia to Armenia
total 3 bln USD per annum. Russia is the key foreign labor market
for Armenia's citizens. Big Russian investments in energy
and communications are expected in relation to Armenia's decision to
join the Customs Union", he says.

Kovalenko thinks that Mr.Giragosian should not frighten Armenia
by hopeless future or loss of opportunities. "European
commissioners realize this and are trying to make adjustments to the
work with Armenia. Giragosian speaks about it frankly, but at the same
time, he editorializes it, stressing that the context of cooperation
will change, new demands will be put forward to the Armenian
Government and the focus will be shifted from the ruling party and
the Government to the opposition. Apparently, this means that the EU
will actively start preparing a "fifth column" inside the country
to trigger anti-governmental sentiments in the civil society and
hold protest actions. Briefly speaking, this will lead to
destabilization of the situation. If it is so, I'd like to recall that
almost 80% of Armenia's citizens consider that the country's accession
to the Customs Union will strengthen the economy and the national
security system of Armenia. This is an important remark and it should
make the Armenian authorities take specific steps to formalize
such sentiments of the overwhelming majority of the citizens and to
switch them onto the track of public movement to support the
Eurasian process. One shouldn't do such things half-way".

While pledging to steer his country toward European integration, Georgian
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili has also called for warmer relations
with Moscow. He told Koba Liklikadze from RFE/RL's Georgian Service
that he will not exclude the possibility that his country could one day
join the Eurasian Union, an economic and political body proposed by
Russia that would bring together some former Soviet nations.

RFE/RL: You recently praised Armenia for its measured foreign
policies. Earlier this month, Yerevan announced its plans to join the
Russia-led [Customs Union, a precursor to the] Eurasian Union. Do you
consider the Eurasian Union to be strategically advantageous for
Georgia, too?

Bidzina Ivanishvili: At this stage, when the Eurasian
Union is being formed, as the head of the cabinet, I say the following:
"I am closely monitoring and studying this issue. If it will be
advantageous for our country, if it will bring it additional profits,
and if, at the same time, it does not counter our strategy, which calls
for Georgia's integration into the European Union and NATO, then why
not? I will never allow our country to be experimented with! This is why
we are watching and studying what the Eurasian Union really means. In
the very long term Russia will become a member of the European Union.
They are neighbors and they need each other. Russia will also become a
NATO member and a close friend of the United States.

RFE/RL: But the European Union is not dominated by one nation.
The Eurasian Union, by contrast, is dominated by Moscow, which imposes
its rules of the game on other countries.

Ivanishvili: We will not join such a union! We have
gotten rid of masters once and for all. We want freedom, the respect of
all human rights, equality, democracy, and the formation of democratic
institutions. Therefore we are watching what principles the Eurasian
Union will choose. If it turns out to be what you describe, then, of
course, we will not join it.

RFE/RL: You say that you don't know what the Eurasian Union
really is. Do you fully understand what the European Union is, what
regulations and challenges await Georgia before it can join the bloc?

Ivanishvili: What we appreciate about the European
Union is, first and foremost, European values. Europeans are the most
successful and interesting people. Human rights, a competitive market,
and the absence of corruption -- this is what Europe is about. People
always strive for a better life. The current economic crisis did cast a
shadow on the European Union. But the crisis will end. Modern
civilization has not created anything better than the European Union.

RFE/RL: You have toned down Georgia's rhetoric on Russia and
appointed a special envoy for relations with Moscow. At the same time,
you said at a recent a meeting of Georgian ambassadors that Russia
responded by fencing off South Ossetia with barbed wire.

Ivanishvili: We have made positive steps with both
sides, I want to stress that. Without Russia, our exports would not be
able to reach the Russian market so easily. The biggest breakthrough was
the resumption of trade and economic relations. At the meeting of
ambassadors I noted that this positive development is at odds with the
fact that Russian soldiers put up barbed wire. This is baffling. Of
course we will try to develop our relations with Russia. But Russia is a
huge country and I do not seek to reeducate it. We must be tolerant,
principled, and at the same time constructive and diplomatic. We must
not scream hysterically and engage in saber rattling, like in the past.

Officials and political analysts in Tbilisi believe the Kremlin is
ready to reach deep into its bag of tricks to try to coerce Georgia into
ditching its European Union membership ambitions and embracing Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Union vision.

Georgia traditionally has been the most pro-Western state in the
South Caucasus. But in the almost year since Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition gained control of parliament,
Georgia’s stance toward Russia has softened somewhat.

On November 28, during a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Georgia is
expected to move closer to the European Union when it is expected to
initial an Association Agreement, a major step toward potential EU
membership. The agreement, which is also on the table for Ukraine and
Moldova, will gradually reduce obstacles for closer economic ties with
Brussels.

Some Georgians believe that prospect makes Moscow nervous -- not only
because it will expand EU influence in a region the Kremlin still
considers its “backyard,” but it will also place an economic obstacle
between Russia and Georgia’s southern neighbor, Armenia, the lone
Caucasian country to sign on to the Eurasian Union’s precursor, a
Customs Union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Georgian State Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Aleksi
Petriashvili on October 9 predicted to reporters that Russia plans “to
use all the levers available to it to exert pressure [on Georgia]”
before it initials the Association Agreement.

Speculation began about Tbilisi’s intentions after an offhand
observation last month from Ivanishvili that Georgia might consider
joining Russia’s Eurasian Union, if it proved “interesting.”

Zurab Abashidze, a former Georgian ambassador to Moscow who
represents Tbilisi in negotiations with Russia over humanitarian and
economic issues, stressed that the Georgian government is not discussing
the Eurasian Union with the Kremlin, or any sort of compromise on
Tbilisi’s policy of European integration.

While support among Georgians for the EU and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization remains strong (76 percent of 3,838 respondents in a
recent poll for the National Democratic Institute), a chance exists
that the public -- particularly in impoverished, rural areas -- could
switch sides if Moscow makes the right offer, said Kornely K. Kakachia, a
political-science professor at Tbilisi State University.

“If you ask people at the end of the day; ‘which one is more
important, territorial integrity or Western integration?’ I am not sure
Western integration will prevail,” Kakchia commented. The fact that many Georgians understand the EU integration process
more in terms of theoretical advantages tomorrow than immediate gains
today plays into this risk, he continued. “Moscow knows this, and Moscow
tries to utilize it.”

In the wake of the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, fences installed
by Russian troops in Tbilisi-controlled territory as the “state border”
of breakaway South Ossetia constitutes one of the ways Moscow is
attempting to apply that pressure, Kakchia and other analysts believe.

Beginning in roughly 2009, Russian troops have been installing barbed wire and fences within areas of separatist-controlled South Ossetia that
neighbor on Tbilisi-controlled territory. In recent months, though,
they have moved the “border” into Tbilisi-controlled lands, effectively
incorporating Georgian orchards, cemeteries and houses into breakaway
South Ossetia.

Denounced by Tbilisi’s Western allies and, in a United Nations
speech, by President Mikheil Saakashvili, the fence-building appears to
have paused for now, Interior Ministry spokesperson Kakha Kemoklidze
told EurasiaNet.org on October 11.

But the fences “squandered” any chance that existed for Tbilisi and
Moscow to mend relations, much less consider an economic alliance, said
Tornike Sharashenidze, a professor of international affairs at the
Georgian Institute for Public Affairs and the former director of the
NATO Information Center in Tbilisi.

While ordinary Georgians possibly “are not very well aware of … the
benefits of the European Union, … they cannot help but see the
aggression of Russia,” Sharashenidze said.

Political analyst Alexander Rondeli, founder of the Georgian
Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, agrees. “[With the
fences] they show everyone -- and Georgians first of all -- that
everything, all negotiations, are by Russian rules,” Rondeli said. “It
is [a] classical, old strategy: the powerful do as they wish, and the
weak do what they can.”

Ivanishvili himself has said he does not plan to visit the affected
villages since his presence “will do nothing.” Officials maintain that
the fences are the fault of the 2008 war with Russia under President
Saakashvili, but conceivably could be used to pressure Georgia to join
the Eurasian Union. Yet the potential pressure points go beyond fences.

The
Russian Federal Security Bureau (FSB) announced on October 4 that
it has unearthed an international arms-smuggling ring, which it claims
has been moving weapons from Georgian-controlled territory via South
Ossetia into Russia’s North Ossetia. Tbilisi has not yet responded to
the claims. Such allegations often accompany upticks in tension over
South Ossetia.

Another
barb aims at a Georgian weak spot, the economy. Just three
months after Russia reopened its markets to Georgian alcohol and mineral
water, the Russian state consumer-protection agency RosPotrebNadzor
once again began questioning the quality of imported Georgian wine.
Georgian wine producers, in the past have emphasized that they have
diversified away from the Russian market.

The
Georgian Foreign Ministry did not respond to questions in time for
publication. Abashidze, the Georgian envoy, underlined that, no matter
Moscow’s
actions, Tbilisi intends to stand firm on its desire to gain eventual
membership in Euro-Atlantic structures. “We stated from the very
beginning that we know Russia has red lines … and we have our red lines
-- territorial integrity and our free choice in international
relations,” he said. “These principals cannot be discussed.”

EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy
Stefan Fule told journalists in Yerevan Friday that the European Union
will not sign any documents with Armenia at the Eastern Partnership
summit in Vilnius, scheduled for late November.

“The agreement on a deep and comprehensive free trade area is part of
the Association Agreement. It is a single document, and one can not be
separated from the other,” Fule said after an informal meeting of
foreign ministers of the Eastern Partnership program’s member countries
in Yerevan.

Asked about the possibility of preparing a document providing a new
format of cooperation between the EU and Armenia, Fule said that such a
serious document can not be prepared prior to the Vilnius summit. He
added, however, that the EU does not refuse further cooperation with
Armenia.

Speaking at the meeting, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
said, “Over the past years, in cooperation with our European colleagues,
the Armenian government implemented large-scale reforms, particularly
in the areas of strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of
law, good governance, protection of human rights and fundamental
freedoms, improvement of election processes and the electoral code, and
the development of civil society.” Nalbandian added, “We are thankful
for that support and look forward to continuing our reforms in the
future.”

The Minister underlined that Armenia has allied relations with
Russia, and this was the reason behind the decision to join the Customs
Union.

“We have said on many occasions that we are ready to launch close
cooperation with the European Union, but not at the expense of our
strategic partner,” Nalbandian stated.

“Armenia is determined to maintain and advance the achievements and
progress registered in the course of its relations with the European
Union over the past years,” Edward Nalbandian said.

Stefan Fule, who was also at the meeting in Yerevan, stated, “The EU
remains committed to advancing the Eastern Partnership with all six
partner countries. Our intentions and policies are clear, transparent,
predictable and differentiable – reflecting the ambitions of our
partners and their commitment to values and principles that form the
basis of our relations. We have always acted in this way and will
continue to do so – in the run up to the Vilnius summit and beyond.”

“We are not in the business of building walls. We are in the process
that could eventually lead to a free trade zone between Lisbon and
Vladivostok,” Commissioner Fule said.

“The development of the Eurasian Union project must respect our
partners’ sovereign decisions. Any threats from Russia linked to the
possible signing of agreements with the European Union are unacceptable.
The European Union will support and stand by those who are subject to
undue pressures,” he said.

“I’ve come to understand what Armenia’s expectations are from the
Vilnius Summit,” Commissioner Fule said, adding that the AA/DCFTA are
part of one treaty that cannot be separated.

“The greatest expectations are connected with the Association
Agreement and the creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Area. Such agreements will be signed with Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia,”
Fule explained, noting that Armenia’s announcement about its plans to
join the Customs Union will not allow it to initial the Association
Agreement, which had been negotiated for three years.

As for the statement made by the EU Delegation to Armenia on the
recent violent incidents against activists and human rights defenders,
the Commissioner said: “The EU has expressed deep concerns and called on
Armenian authorities to take decisive action to bring the perpetrators
to justice.”

Moldova’s Foreign Minister Natalia German stated that despite
pressures, Moldova is ready to sign the Association Agreement. The
Georgian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers expressed the same.

A protest
rally against Armenia’s joining the
Customs Union was held outside presidential
residence. The rally participants believe that by
joining the CU, Armenia will
make a step towards restoration of the USSR. Protesters are demanding resignation of President Serzh Sargsyan. As
Heritage party representative David Sanasaryan told journalists, those
gathered aim to express determination in disallowing a non-elected
president or other officials to play games with Armenia’s sovereignty.

A clash broke out between the demonstrators and the police when the
formers tired to gather in front of the presidential residence. Several
activists were detained. The Asparez club chair and National
Self-Determination Union leader Paruyr Hayrikyan participated in the
action, with the latter noting that Armenia’s jointing the CU should
have been decided through a referendum rather than the president alone,
tert.am said. Those detained are expected to be released after a
report is drawn up. Several demonstrators marched to the police
department to support their friends.

The
rally was planned in Facebook, with the further actions to be
coordinated in the social network. Earlier, Armenia expressed intention
to join Customs Union, with further plans to be involved in formation of
EurAsEC. Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the initiative,
voicing
readiness to assist Armenia in the process. He also noted that Russian
Railways may invest 15 billion rubles in development of Armenia's
railway network. The Customs Union was formed in 2010 to include
of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia; Kirghizia and Tajikistan later
expressed willingness to join the Union.

Seeking an alternative to the European Union and finding a refuge in
the Customs Union means having health problems, leader of the National
Self-Determination Union Paruyr Hayrikyan told a press conference today.
According to him, for Moscow the Customs Union means restoration of the
USSR and improvement of Russia’s image. Paruyr Hayrikyan’s opinion about the Customs Union is definitely
negative. He believes that the EU will once expand its borders involving
both Russia and Armenia. However, Armenia will then join the EU as an
annex. Hayrikyan considers that the Customs Union will not exist long, as it has been created artificially to raise Russia’s price.The explanations that Armenia chose the Customs Union because of
security consideration are also unacceptable to Paruyr Hayrikyan.
Referring to some historic events, he noted that Russia has never
ensured our security and added that NATO is the main guarantor of
security.

On September 14, during
a meeting in Georgian village Tekali, Paruyr Hayrikyan presented his
book “To absolute democracy”. In particular, he said,- “We all,
Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani peoples, are the victims of the
Bolshevik dictatorship. All our problems are coming from there. We need
to always realize it and understand that when there is no mutual
understanding in us, it means the the dictatorship is ruling that is
imposed on us. It is very important for us that we take our fate in our
hands. The main problem in the post-Soviet period was that not people
solve the problem, but the KGB’s former agents, in other words, the
Bolshevik Empire now continues to exist with new rules, but the idea is
still dominating.
The issue of Armenian-Georgian border is a minor problem, but someone
would like Armenians and Georgians live in peace, they managed to
involve Azerbaijanis deep in the conflict, now they want Armenians to
get into conflict with Georgians, then Armenia’s dependence on Russia
will grow. They already succeeded in doing a lot. In recent days, all
Armenians were shocked at how it turned out, we were saying that we live
in European values, we are going to Europe, suddenly, one day, the
President made a sole statement that no, we prefer Putin Russia. It does
not refer to Russia, the matter is about Putin Russia. And who is
Putin? Putin regrets that the peoples liberated from the Soviet empire,
he has repeatedly said, we were forced to call the Soviet Union, but it
was Russia, the Russian empire, and our goal is to restore the Russian
empire.”

Opposition leader Raffi Hovannisian described membership in the customs
union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as a grave threat to Armenia’s
independence as he again rallied supporters in Yerevan on Friday. Hovannisian added the Armenian government’s pledge to join the union to a
list of reasons why he believes President Serzh Sarkisian should step
down. He said Sarkisian “single-handedly decided to subordinate
Armenia’s sovereignty to others in a humiliating manner.”
“A government that steals elections, attacks citizens, ruins cultural
values, fails to solve crimes in the army and elsewhere … and takes a
step in Moscow that is not anti-American or anti-European but
anti-Armenian,” he told several hundred people in the city’s Liberty
Square.The Zharangutyun (Heritage) party leader, who was Sarkisian’s main
challenger in the February 2013 presidential election, called for the
creation of a broad-based “national renewal front” that would campaign
for regime change. “If we don’t come out of our corners and create that
powerful fist nobody will forgive us for the loss of statehood,” he
said.“Armenia’s independence is jeopardized,” Zaruhi Postanjian, an outspoken
Zharangutyun parliamentarian, said in a speech at the rally.Hovannisian launched what he described as a new campaign of
anti-government protests late last month, shortly before Sarkisian
announced his decision on the customs union in Moscow. He has failed to
pull large crowds so far.The U.S.-born oppositionist called on other opposition and civic groups
to join in the campaign ahead of the latest rally. Only a handful of
small groups and individual figures heeded the appeal, however. Among
them was Paruyr Hayrikian, another former presidential candidate who
spent more than a decade in Soviet prisons for campaigning for Armenia’s
independence.Of all opposition represented in the Armenian parliament, only
Zharangutyun and the Free Democrats party have explicitly rejected
Armenia’s accession to the customs union.

A
leading human rights activist in Armenia is going to appeal the
decision on joining the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
that was announced by President Serzh Sargsyan last month.
At a press conference on Monday Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly
Vanadzor
Office head Artur Sakunts said that the decision announced in Moscow on
September 3 was “not taken democratically, by means of discussions and
consultations”, and contradicted earlier statements by power bodies.
Sakunts said that he would seek the Constitutional Court’s declaring the
decision illegal. The September 3 declaration by President Sargsyan
following talks with
his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin came as a U-turn in the policies
of Armenia that for several years before that sought an associated
status with the European Union. In the wake of this major geopolitical
decision officials in Brussels
said that no agreement on association and forming a deep and
comprehensive free trade area would be signed with Armenia at the
upcoming EU Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Head of the Yerevan Press
Club Boris Navasardyan fears that restrictions
on freedom of speech will become a “more and more serious challenge” in
Armenia in the time to come.

Navasardyan, who is also the national coordinator of the Eastern
Partnership Civil Platform, links these concerns to the “lowered
interest” of Armenia in deepening relations with the West, in particular
with the European Union.

Now we have found ourselves in a little bit different situation [he
refers to the choice of the Russian-led Customs Union over European
integration] and it can be predicted that maybe not that fast, not in a
very active and cruel manner, but restrictions on freedom of expression
will grow to become a more and more serious challenge in Armenia and in
that case the unwillingness of individual journalists to work in that
situation, under such conditions will be understandable to me,” said
Navasardyan.

The Yerevan Press Club’s president says the information field went through great disappointment after the elections.

“In fact, our well-known concern that the fairly high quality of
election coverage was not so much a reflection of the freedom of speech
as a matter of clear instructions from the government has been
justified. Though, it is not bad either, but the instruction to be free
should be for as long a period as possible, so that it becomes a
customary thing for the media. Unfortunately, this period was too short
for the tradition of being free to stay with some of our media
representatives,” says Navasardyan.

International observers who monitored the most recent elections in
Armenia positively evaluated the election campaign coverage, stressing
that all the candidates and political parties had an equal chance of
being covered.

Navasardyan emphasizes that only in the election period when Armenia was
in the center of attention of the international community and, in fact,
only due to the influence of external factors, the country managed to
have a more or less positive period in terms of press freedom.

Editor-in-chief of Hetq.am Edik Baghdasaryan, known for his journalistic
investigations, recently raised the issue of the distortion of the
media environment and authorities’ taking media under their immediate
control. He expressed the opinion that “Armenia’s authorities have
managed to destroy the media field where journalists no longer are able
to find their place and find themselves in an extremely hopeless
condition, as the entire media field, and the journalistic profession,
are distorted.”

“The media have become the most controlled field in Armenia. Control
over materials, subjects, organization of their publication have become
precise. The problem is that traditional sources of information no
longer work. There is no longer a need to conduct journalistic
investigations (and it often takes months), to find your own sources of
information to present one issue or another comprehensively. Now sources
of information have their own media and are able to spread the
information at once framing it the way that suits them most. Now every
official and department have their media,” Baghdasaryan said to
Media.am.

Meanwhile, government representatives in Armenia have stressed on
various occasions that freedom of the press and expression has not been
subjected to pressure during Serzh Sargsyan’s presidency. And Sargsyan
himself several times in his public speeches described it as one of the
greatest achievements of his leadership.

Opposition Armenian National Congress
(ANC) leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan
believes that President Serzh Sargsyan must resign immediately if he is
“sincerely concerned about the future of Armenia and Artsakh”.

The ex-president made this call in an article published on ilur.am on
Wednesday. Ter-Petrosyan, in particular, pointed out Sargsyan’s
“adventurist” foreign policy due to which, he contended, Armenia is now
viewed as an unreliable partner both in the West and in Russia.

The opposition leader clearly referred to Sargsyan’s volte-face in
announcing last month Armenia’s decision to join the Russia-led Customs
Union, calling into question the prospect of further political and
economic integration with the European Union.

“Speaking in chess terminology, Sargsyan has appeared in a zugzwang
situation in which any move he makes will lead to a defeat. Each day of
his rule is a loss for Armenia and Artsakh,” asserted Ter-Petrosyan.

The ANC leader suggested that if Sargsyan agrees to resign, his move
should not entail a “political vendetta”. Moreover, he said, the
National Assembly must provide full immunity to his person and property.

Ter-Petrosyan emphasized that Armenia needs a new president “capable of
restoring the country’s international reputation as a trustworthy and
responsible partner.” At the same time, the former leader made it clear
that he would not run for the top post should a presidential election be
held. Moreover, he said that his successor Robert Kocharyan must not
seek to return to power either “not least because he brought Sargsyan to
power” through a deadly suppression of post-election street protests in
March 2008.

“Time is running out. And if Serzh Sargsyan, as I already mentioned, has
found himself in a zugzwang situation, then the Armenian people are in a
time-trouble situation,” the ANC leader concluded.

Violence erupted on Mashtots Avenue on Nov. 5 as dozens of protesters
clashed with police. The demonstration was sparked by a call for
revolution by activist Shant Harutyunyan.

As over a hundred protesters gathered to embark on what police say
was an “unauthorized” march to the Presidential Palace, they encountered
resistance by law enforcement officials. Some of the activists hurled
small gas-filled bottles that exploded upon impact. Others swung wooden
batons at officers. Reportedly, up to 200 law-enforcement
officials—including Special Forces and SWAT teams—were deployed to the
scene. Some 20 activists were arrested, including Harutyunyan, while
around ten police officers suffered injuries.

Just
before clashes with the police, Harutyunyan told journalists
that he and his supporters were prepared to fight until the last man.
He said they were armed with homemade explosives, batons, and rocks,
among other things. Harutyunyan began a sit-in at Liberty Square on Oct.
31, next to a propped up sign that read, “I Am Starting a Revolution.”

Many among the protesters wore Guy Fawkes masks, a symbol of
resistance, as well as the face of activists who identify themselves as
Anonymous. The group Anonymous has no leader, and is made up of
activists and hacktivists who work collectively towards a certain goal
while maintaining anonymity. In recent years, activists around the world
have designated Nov. 5—the anniversary of the failed Gunpowder Plot of
1605 and an attempt to assassinate King James I of England—as a day of
protest against repression and injustice. This year, activists worldwide
called for a Million Mask March through social networking sites. The
“Heghapokhoutyun” (Revolution) Facebook page was set up in
mid-September, posting content aimed at inspiring revolution, and quotes
from Harutyunyan.

Earlier in the week, in an interview
with CivilNet, Harutyunyan said, “Are there those in this population of
three million who are prepared to take risks, to make sacrifices, and
to endanger their own lives in order to protect a dignified life and a
dignified death? I don’t know whether there are such people… but I
imagine that if I am one such man, there must be others. And if there
are such people, they will come and join me and pick up a bottle of
gasoline. I have two hands and the most I can lift are two bottles of
gasoline, and that I will do. But if I had 200 hands, I’d lift 200 bottles of gasoline…”

In an interview
with Kentron TV in August, Harutyunyan talked about a “Revolution of
Values” that the country needed, and said that among those who had
played a formative role in the development of his ideas were Njdeh,
Napoleon, Hitler, and Nietzsche. On multiple occasions he has invoked
the French Revolution as inspiration, as well as the principles of
“Liberty, Equality, and Fraternity.”

He has been outspoken in his
criticism of the Armenian government, which he considers a “slave” of
the Kremlin.

European diplomats have been stunned
this week by the announcement that Armenia,
which had been on track to strengthen ties with the European Union in
November, will instead join a customs union led by Russia. Armenia was expected to initial an “association agreement” with the
EU at a summit in Vilnius, strengthening trade relations while
committing Armenia to democratic reforms.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin
has been turning up the pressure on the countries sandwiched between
Russia and the EU, pushing them to join forces with its own customs
union and not the EU. The customs Union includes Belarus and Kazakhstan,
but Russia is widely seen as the dominant partner. In the case of Armenia, Russia has powerful leverage because it’s the
country’s natural-gas supplier and can determine the price of
fuel. Thousands of Russian troops are based in Armenia and Moscow has
formal security guarantees in place which have bolstered Armenia in its
bitter conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Even so,
the intensity of what Europeans see as
Russian pressure
tactics and the speed of Armenia’s U-turn have spooked Europeans. It was
just six weeks ago – July 24 – that the EU completed years of talks
with Armenia on the association accord and Armenian officials were
assuring their Brussels counterparts that there would be no stepping
back. While Mr. Putin said Tuesday it was Armenia’s decision to join the
bloc, few in Brussels doubt that Armenia’s abrupt policy change came
because Moscow raised the costs of pursuing closer EU ties.

“The
pressures on Armenia were known, and in that
sense it is not a
surprise,” said Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a senior member of the European
Parliament. “But the fact that the pressure succeeded in getting
Armenia, under force if you wish, to change its decision—that is a
surprise, and we profoundly regret it.”

Armenia’s
shift was announced Tuesday in a
statement posted on the
Kremlin website during a meeting between Mr. Putin and Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan. The question now is whether Armenia’s move
foreshadows similar decisions from other countries to the EU’s east.
Countries in the Moscow-led customs union cannot be integrated into
the EU, European officials say, because they have effectively ceded
sovereignty over trade issues to Russia. This bloc is scheduled to
evolve in 2015 into a more comprehensive Eurasian Economic Union, which
Russian leaders foresee as a counterweight to the EU.

Armenia’s economy is relatively small, with a GDP of €7.5 billion.
But Tuesday’s decision was a blow in part because EU leaders had
conducted a long negotiation with the country over the association deal,
and they saw its apparently successful conclusion as a diplomatic
victory. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt reflected the widespread
frustration among European leaders in a tweet: “Armenia negotiated 4
years to get Association Agreement with EU. Now President prefers
Kremlin to Brussels.”

One
Western diplomat with knowledge of the situation
said Armenia had
negotiated with the EU in good faith, but “they themselves did not
expect this kind of pressure from Russia.” He said the EU will continue to work with Armenia on issues like
easing visa procedures, and that Armenia could change direction yet
again as it confronts Russia’s dominance within the customs union.

In a press statement after meeting Mr. Putin, President Sargsyan
said: “This is a rational decision, it is a decision based on Armenia’s
national interests. The decision is not a rejection of our dialogue with
European institutions,” according to a transcript on the Kremlin’s web site. Armenia’s move illustrates the stepped-up pressure from Russia on
countries that find themselves pulled between East and West, and could
mean trouble for others considering linking with the EU. Ukraine, for example, is expected to sign its own long-awaited EU
association agreement at the November summit, and Moldova and Georgia
are scheduled to tentatively initial such deals at the same time—as was
Armenia, until Tuesday.

“It is the general context which is so
worrying,” Mr. Saryusz-Wolski
said. “This pressure concerns all the four countries on the road to
association. It’s part of the wider picture, and the fear that it might
provoke a domino effect.” EU officials’ surprise was evident Wednesday in their hesitant
initial responses. “We are seeking further clarification from the
Armenian side,” said Maja Kocijancic, an EU foreign affairs spokeswoman.
“Then we will be able to assess the implications.”

A
European diplomat called Armenia’s switch a
“wake-up call” on
Russia’s aggressiveness. But he said it doesn’t necessarily follow that
other countries will spurn the EU; Georgian leaders remain deeply angry
over Russia’s 2008 invasion of their country, while Ukraine and Moldova
have made strong public commitments to Europe. And Armenia is especially vulnerable to Russia. Most of Armenia’s
energy network is Russian-owned or managed, and Russia is deeply
involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is central to Armenia’s
security.

“So Armenia is a very special case, as is Belarus. But I’m not sure
that the Russians will find it so easy to pull off the same trick with
Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Azerbaijan,” the European diplomat said.
“We have still away to go to Vilnius and I think Vilnius can still be a
big success – even without Armenia.”

The battle over the EU’s Eastern Partnership—which includes Armenia,
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Belarus—is only one of the
current flash points between Europe and Russia. Russia has complained about EU rules that force the splitting of
giant energy utilities, with Mr. Putin repeatedly accusing Brussels of
“confiscating” Russia’s investment in some EU countries. The EU, for its part, became the first entity to take Russia to the
World Trade Organization over special taxes Moscow imposes on vehicle
imports. European officials also blame Moscow for blocking efforts to
isolate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Vladimir Socor: The End of “Complementarity” in Armenia’s Foreign Policy

“Complementarity,”
the term purportedly denoting Armenia’s policy of balance between
Russia and the West, has reached the end of the road, and that end is
Russia.

Long
assumed to be the guiding principle of Armenia’s foreign policy,
“complementarity” has lost any meaning with Armenia’s decision to join
the Russia-led Customs Union and prospectively the Eurasian Union.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Serzh Sargsyan jointly announced that
decision on September 3, and the Armenian government started on
September 7 the drafting of accession documents for the Customs Union
(see EDM, September 5, 6, 11)

Yerevan’s
choice, in effect, repudiates the European Union’s offer to conclude
association and trade agreements with Armenia—an offer that the United
States had also encouraged Yerevan to embrace. Instead, Armenia’s
decision in favor of Russia’s economic bloc, compounding Yerevan’s
military alliance with Moscow, brings the process of Russia’s
satellization of Armenia close to completion.

As
described by the prominent analyst Richard Giragosian (a rare critic in
Yerevan of the September 3 decision), the “complementarity” principle
supposedly combined reliance on Russia to protect Armenia militarily
with reliance on the West to promote Armenia’s economic development
(News.Am, Arminfo, September 6).

That
duality, however, never applied in practice. The administrations of
presidents Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan allowed Russia to
establish an overwhelming economic presence in Armenia. That, along with
endemic local corruption, discouraged Western investment generally and
even the Armenian diaspora’s investment in Armenia. By farming out the
economy to Russia, the two Karabakhi presidents ensured Moscow’s support
for their rule in Yerevan and freezing the resolution of the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

The
long-serving minister of foreign affairs, Vardan Oskanian, had often
invoked complementarity as the operational concept of Armenia’s foreign
policy. In essence, however, this reflected neither equidistance between
Russia and the West, nor a balanced pursuit of military interests and
economic interests with Russia and the West, respectively.

Complementarity
had long become a rhetorical device, behind which Armenia was falling
more deeply into military and economic dependence on Russia. As early as
2004, the Russian Duma’s chairman, Boris Gryzlov, congratulated Armenia
for turning into “Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus.” Some in
Armenia felt shocked by this description because it accurately
summarized the process under way (PanArmenian.Net, December 17, 2004).
That phrase remains a defining, oft-quoted byword in Armenia’s political
debates to this day. Increasingly, Russian-Armenian relations took on
the logic of relations between the metropolis and its outpost or
exclave, as some Armenian observers conclude retrospectively (Lragir,
September 4, 9).

Armenia’s
main political parties basically support or accept Sargsyan’s decision
on joining Russia’s Customs Union project. In this sense, the strategic
choice rests on a political consensus across party lines. No coherent
public debate can yet be observed in Yerevan on the economic merits of
joining the Customs Union. Instead, politicians representing the main
political parties justify this economic choice with reference to
national security considerations. Explicitly or implicitly, this means
Russian military protection of Armenian territorial gains at
Azerbaijan’s expense.

Complementarity’s
demise was not a pre-determined outcome. It is largely a result of
Yerevan’s need for Russian support to maintain the occupation of six
districts inside Azerbaijan, beyond Upper Karabakh.

Having
renounced the European Union’s offer of association and trade
agreements, Yerevan takes the position that it can only cooperate with
the EU to an extent that would not contradict Armenia’s commitment to
Russia’s Customs Union project. Foreign Affairs Minister Eduard
Nalbandian rushed to Brussels and Vilnius to inform the European
Commission and the EU’s Lithuanian presidency of Armenia’s policy shift.
The Armenian government made the same explanations to the EU’s
Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Commissioner Stefan Fuele, in
Yerevan (Arminfo, News.Am, September 11).

Limiting
relations with the EU, as a deliberate policy, to a level that would
not impinge on relations with Russia, means to all intents and purposes a
Russia-First orientation; and Yerevan’s statements to that effect
amount to an unofficial obituary of the “complementarity” policy.

“Armenia
has said Yes to Putin and No to the European Union,” noted the European
People’s Party (EPP, umbrella organization of Europe’s center-right and
Christian-Democrat parties) in a statement deploring Yerevan’s
decision. The EPP had strongly encouraged Yerevan and Brussels to
conclude the association and trade agreements. The Christian-Democrats’
support all but guaranteed parliamentary ratification of those
agreements in Europe, had these been signed. Instead, a disappointed EPP
reminded Yerevan that the Customs Union would turn Armenia and other
acceding countries into “Russia’s satellites” (PanArmenian.Net, RFE/RL,
September 6).

If
“complementarity’s” Western dimension ever operated in any real,
practical sense, it was by using Armenian diaspora advocacy groups in
the West to support Yerevan’s policy objectives. This activity was
particularly visible in the US Congress, often contradicting the US
administration’s policy objectives or complicating US relations with
allied Turkey and strategic partner Azerbaijan.

Thus,
Armenian advocacy groups and their allies unsuccessfully opposed the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project, successfully opposed the
Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railroad project (blocking EximBank funding for it),
successfully imposed parity on US government funding of cooperation with
Azerbaijan and Armenia, blocked or derailed several US ambassadorial
appointments to the region, and urged US recognition of a “genocide”
against Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, in the knowledge that such
recognition would explode US-Turkey relations (2015 will be a watershed
year in this as yet unsuccessful campaign). Insofar as they negatively
affect Washington’s allies and partners, those public advocacy efforts
should lose credibility when traceable to a government in Yerevan that
has dropped “complementarity’s” façade, choosing full-fledged
satellization by Russia.

"Right makes might, and not the other way around," President Obama said in the Rose Garden a few weeks ago.
We all know what he meant: In this age of soft power, great countries
can win friends not through the use of brute force but through their
books and movies, their sophisticated economies, their technological
innovations, and, above all, through their attractive and inspiring
national ideals.

Maybe that's true, some of the time. But for those who find soft power
difficult to wield, hard power is still available. Indeed, in the very
same week that the American president made his Rose Garden speech,
events on the other side of the globe were proving that might certainly
can make right. Even while the world's attention was fixed on
Russian-American diplomacy in Syria, back home Russian President
Vladimir Putin was pulling off a much quieter but potentially more
significant diplomatic coup. After three years of intensive
negotiations, Armenia, Russia's neighbor, had been on the brink of
signing an association agreement, including a comprehensive trade
agreement, with the European Union. But on Sept. 3—right in the middle
of the Syria crisis—the Armenian government abruptly declared
that it would drop the whole project. Rather than aligning itself with
the world's largest free-trade zone and some of the world's most
sophisticated democracies, Armenia decided to stick with Russia,
Belarus, and Kazakhstan, and to join the Eurasian Customs Union instead.

No one pretends that Armenia was attracted by Russia's soft power. By
way of explanation, President Serzh Sargsyan explained that Armenia
depends on Russia for it security, and that Armenia has a large diaspora living in Russia.
This sounds odd: Most security alliances, NATO included, don’t require
their members to join a customs union, and the presence of immigrants in
one country doesn't usually affect trade policy in another. But Armenia
has been made anxious in recent weeks by Russian diplomatic overtures
toward Azerbaijan, Armenia's main rival, as well as by anti-immigrant rhetoric from Russian officials.
The Armenians took the hint: If they signed the trade deal with Europe,
Russia might sell more arms to their rival and expel the Armenians who
live in Russia.

The Armenians were no doubt watching Russian moves elsewhere in their
immediate neighborhood, where a distinct pattern is emerging. On Sept.
11, Russia banned the import of Moldovan wine, on the grounds that it is
a "health hazard." Ukrainian chocolates have suffered the same fate.
Another old tactic, the use of gas pricing and supply as a tool of political influence,
is being resurrected in Ukraine as well. In essence—and I'm summarizing
here—the Russians have let the Ukrainians understand that if they drop
their own negotiations with Europe and join the Eurasian Customs Union,
the price of the gas they import from Russia could drop by more than
half.

It's an excellent offer, so much so that—examined objectively—it
seems extraordinary that the Ukrainians have not accepted it already.
But Ukraine is hesitating, and has been for some time. Even the
country's most Russo-philic politicians know that the decision
represents not a short-term financial decision but a long-term
civilizational choice, between the relatively open markets and open
politics of Europe and the closed world of the former Soviet Union. One
Armenian opposition politician explained the consequences of his country's decision
to choose Russia over Europe like this: "Armenia, by choosing the
customs union instead of agreements with the EU will remain a country of
oligarchs and monopolies just like Russia."

Yet when examined objectively, it seems extraordinary that the
Russians want their neighbors to make that kind of choice, too. Surely
it's in Russia's own interests to share borders with countries that have
broad international contacts, faster economic growth, access to Western
markets, and therefore wealthier domestic consumers, who could buy
Russian goods. Surely it's in Russia's own interests, in the long term,
to have similar access to Western markets itself. If Europe did manage
to craft association agreements with Armenia, Ukraine, and Moldova,
there’s no reason to think that a similar arrangement with Russia would
not eventually follow.

The explanation is as straightforward as it is sad: Russia's ruling
elite, led by President Putin, does not act in Russia’s interests.
Russian elites act in their own interests. At the moment, they are
convinced that economic nationalism and the language of neo-imperialism
will win them popular support, and possibly private profits. I wonder
how long the rest of the Russians will put up with it.

Armenia's Sept. 3 decision to join the
Russian-led Customs Union
solidifies Yerevan's place in Moscow's push to integrate former Soviet
states into its orbit while limiting the influence of the West.
Armenia's eventual accession to the economic bloc effectively closes the
discussion over the country's inclusion into similar EU-led trade
deals, and a day after Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian declared his
country's intentions to join the Customs Union, the Armenian Parliament
canceled hearings it was to hold over negotiations with the European
Union regarding its association and free trade agreements. The decision
will also impact the ongoing political evolution in the Caucasus region
and could bring Armenia's neighbor Georgia further into Russia's
economic and political orbit as well.

Analysis

Armenia has long maintained close economic ties with Russia, though it
had been rather hesitant on the Customs Union issue. Moscow has sought
to expand membership of the union (which it launched with Belarus and
Kazakhstan in 2010) to other states in the former Soviet periphery, with
Armenia serving as a leading candidate for expansion. However,
Sarkisian remained aloof on such a proposal, preferring to cautiously
expand trade ties with the European Union and other countries like Iran
in order to diversify the country's economic options.

But Russia has been trying to dissuade countries on its periphery from
expanding cooperation with the European Union, particularly as a key
Eastern Partnership summit approaches in November. Moscow has pursued a
stick-and-carrot approach in this regard, which in Armenia's case
involved raising the price of natural gas exports while offering
investment and trade benefits for closer integration. Sarkisian's
announcement therefore reflects a success in Russia's strategy on the
part of Armenia. Armenia's decision likely means that plans to initial
the agreements with the European Union in November will be canceled.
Though some Armenian officials have held the door open to the EU deals,
both Russian and European officials have said that Customs Union
membership necessarily precludes further integration with the European
Union. Meanwhile, the already close links between Armenia and Russia can
be expected to become even stronger, especially since the Customs Union
is set to evolve into the Eurasian Union by 2015.

Armenia's potential membership (actual accession will likely take at
least 1-2 years) will also have regional implications. Armenia does not
share a physical border with Russia, necessitating a transit state for
closer customs and trade links. Armenia's border with Azerbaijan is
closed over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, leaving Georgia as the logical
candidate to serve as a transit country. Indeed, Georgia has already
seen a slow but significant opening to Russia under the leadership of
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, with trade and visa links seeing
limited resumptions. There have also been initial talks on reopening
rail traffic between Russia and Armenia through Georgia and the
breakaway territory of Abkhazia. Armenia's membership in the Customs
Union will likely increase the prospects of such projects even further.

However, there are still many elements that could derail a complete
transformation in regional economic and political dynamics. Armenia has
already seen protests over the Customs Union announcement led by the
opposition Heritage Party, though these have so far remained small. And
while Ivanishvili has oriented Georgia more closely toward Moscow (he
recently said that the details of Georgia's potential Eurasian Union
membership are ''worth examining''), Georgia's political landscape
remains fractured and such moves would be contested by other political
elements, particularly those loyal to Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili. Azerbaijan, another regional country with close energy and
economic ties to Georgia and one opposed to Customs Union membership,
will try to dissuade Tbilisi from taking any bold moves that threaten
its interests in the country.

Ultimately, Armenia's announcement shows that the battle between Russia
and the European Union over the former Soviet periphery is
intensifying, as countries feel pressured into making a choice between
the two camps. Yerevan has chosen Moscow over Brussels, with both
immediate and long-term implications for the other countries in the
Caucasus region.

In a surprising volte face at his
meeting in Moscow with President Putin on September 3, President Serzh
Sargsyan of Armenia agreed to join the Russian-dominated customs union
with Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Thus, in one short meeting, he
scrapped the draft Association Agreement with the EU, which included a
‘Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement’ (DCFTA), whose
negotiation over the past three years had advanced to the point that
its initialling was firmly scheduled for the Eastern Partnership summit
in Vilnius in November. And, at the same time, the Armenian President
chose to deprive his country of the possibility to enter into free
trade area agreements with other states, which any economy is free to
do unless it is part of a customs union, in which case it becomes bound
to a common external tariff.

This latter deprivation is particularly serious in Armenia’s case,
since Russia’s external tariff is on average rather highly protective.
In the process, Sargsyan has also precluded Armenia from pursuing the
only plausible strategy to become an open, highly-skilled, small
economy, following for example the model of Israel, with which it
shares several features in common.

More broadly, it is worth noting that
most of the world’s top-ten economies by GDP per capita, from
Luxembourg to Singapore, are small but completely open countries. The
economic case against joining the Russian customs union is all the
greater because nothing in the DCFTA with the EU would have prevented
Armenia from entering into a ‘high-quality’, free trade agreement1 with
the Russian-led customs union.

Armenia is already party to the matrix of CIS free trade agreements,
but many of these do not function well. Rather than join the Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia customs union, why should Armenia not simply
negotiate a high-quality free trade agreement with it? President
Sargsyan has offered two main explanations for his baffling behaviour:
Armenia depends on Russia to guarantee its security and its large
diaspora in Russia make it natural for the two countries to have a
close economic relationship. One might challenge the first explanation
by noting that no other collective security arrangement, e.g. NATO,
requires its member states to join a customs union led by the principal
nation.

Michael Emerson is Associate Senior Research Fellow at CEPS.
Hrant Kostanyan is an Associate Research Fellow at CEPS and a BOF
(Special Research Fund) Research Fellow at the Centre for EU Studies
(CEUS) in the Department of Political Science at Ghent University.

A
poll requested by “Integration and Development” research and analysis
organization showed 86% of Armenia’s residents are positive about the
country’s accession to the Russia-led Customs Union. For most people
joining the Customs Union means integrating with Russia, that is why
most part of the Armenian society prefers accession to the Union,
sociologist Samvel Manukyan said at Novosti international press center
Friday.

The poll showed 67% of Armenia’s population prefers
cooperation with Russia, 17% considers cooperation with the EU a
priority and 12% prefers neither Russia nor the EU. Apart from this, if
only one cooperation format should be chosen – the EU or Russia, then
75% of respondents choose Russia and only 19% prefer the EU.

Despite
the fact that Armenia’s elites are of different opinion about the
accession to the Customs Union, yet the mass support shows the decision
about accession is justified, director of EurAsEc, member of Scientific
Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for Eurasian economic
integration Vladimir Lepyokhin said.