Duelling the duopolies

New entrants to the world jetliner market struggle to take off

IT MAY well turn out that pilot error, or something other than a fault in the aircraft, made a Russian-built Sukhoi Superjet crash into a mountain in Indonesia on May 9th, killing all on board. But the disaster, on top of recent reports of unreliability among the first Superjets to go into service, is bound to hinder Russia's ambition to become a big exporter of modern commercial aircraft. And the Russians are not the only ones trying, and struggling, to do so.

The Chinese, like the Russians, have spent years working on planes that, they hope, will muscle in on the two near-duopolies in the world airliner market. Russia's Superjet, and its Chinese equivalent, the ARJ21, are smaller “regional” jets, the market for which is dominated by Embraer of Brazil and Bombardier of Canada. The much juicier market for full-sized airliners is currently divided between America's Boeing and the Franco-German Airbus. Russia's MC-21 and China's C919, also under development, are potential competitors to Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320.

The Superjet, which has been certified by the European Union's air-safety agency, was beginning to gather some interest outside the former Soviet sphere, encouraging Sukhoi to hope for sales of perhaps 40 a year by 2014. However, the first four planes delivered to Aeroflot of Russia have suffered repeatedly from breakdowns, leading to flight cancellations.

China's ARJ21 had its maiden flight in 2008 and its maker, Comac, was due to start deliveries last year. But the plane's certification by the Chinese and American authorities may slip into next year. China's C919 is supposed to have its first test flight in 2014 but that too may slip. Comac is vague about how many firm orders it has. At the Dubai air show in November, Irkut, the Russian company making the MC-21, said it had 235 orders, mostly from former Soviet countries. It too is aiming for a maiden test flight in 2014, but an Irkut executive acknowledged that his firm was still seeking an international partner to help it market the plane.

Then there are the Japanese: Mitsubishi makes some chunky bits for planes but aspires to sell a complete flying machine of its own. However, its MRJ, yet another contender for the regional-jet market, has just been delayed. Its maiden flight, which had been due around now, has been put back to late next year. The MRJ is said to be technically a good plane, but like the other new contenders it has failed so far to get a critical mass of orders.

A similar fate, its rivals hope, may befall Bombardier, which wants to move up from regional jets to full-sized airliners with its CSeries. Last month the company said it was still on course to deliver the first CSeries to airlines in late 2013. It has more than 300 firm or tentative orders, and hopes to make 120 of them a year by 2016. However, two early customers—Republic Airways Holdings of America, and Korean Air—have expressed fears that it is not selling well enough to guarantee its success. Partly to assuage such worries, Bombardier has agreed with China's Comac that the two will seek to make their planes' cockpits and other systems similar, to encourage airlines to order both together.

Delays, breakdowns and even accidents are not unknown when the established makers launch new planes. But they have a record of getting them right eventually, whereas the new entrants cannot offer potential buyers such reassurance. Moreover, the industry's dominant firms are not just sitting back watching their rivals struggle. Boeing and Airbus have launched, to great success, re-engined versions of the 737 and A320, and Embraer is likewise re-engining its E-Jet regional aircraft.

So will any of the new contenders ever pose a serious threat to the established order? Although they are behind the Russians on producing a regional jet, and lag the Canadians in turning out a full-sized airliner, the betting is on the Chinese, in the long term. Their government seems determined to succeed, however long it takes, and undoubtedly has the money to make its dreams take wing.