Introduction to the 2012 Senate Races

There are 23 Democratic Senate seats up for election this year and only 10 Republican seats. Furthermore, of the ten
retirements
announced so far, seven are Democrats
(counting Joe Lieberman as a Democrat here) while only three Republicans are retiring.
The Democratic seats in Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin are all going to be
very competitive and the Republicans could easily pick up some of them.
The Democrats have a shot in Arizona, but the Republican running there is the favorite.
In Maine, an independent is running and is the overwhelming favorite. If he decides to caucus with the
Democrats, like his independent neighbor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), that is a likely pickup for the Democrats.
All in all, this means the Democrats will have to fight very hard to hang onto the Senate,
which they now control 53-47.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones
following.

Click on a picture for the candidate's home page.
Click on a name for the candidate's entry in the Wikipedia.
Click on a party (D) or (R) for the state party.
Click on "Polls" for a graph of the polls for that state
Click here for a page with graphs of all Senate polls by state

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For a graph showing the predicted 113th Senate daily from January 2012 until today, click
here.

Democratic-held seats

California

Dianne Feinstein (DiFi to her many admirers) won her last Senate race by 25 points.
This time the margin will be even bigger.
In 2010, the Republicans had a very
strong (read: extremely wealthy) Senate candidate (Carly Fiorina) and the Democrat, Barbara Boxer, still won
by 10 points.
Emken, a totally unknown autism activist, came in second, with 12% of the vote, in California's new
jungle primary, beating Orly Taitz, the queen of the birthers, and a host of even lesser-known candidates.
With no money, no issue, and no name recognition in a very blue state, running against one of the best-known
politicians in the state, Emken will go down in flames.

Connecticut

Linda McMahon, the multimillionaire former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, ran for the Senate in 2010
and was handily defeated by then-Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. Now she is trying again, this time
agains Rep. Chris Murphy. She is probably going to spend $50 million of her own money. The race is closer
than it was in 2010, but in the end Connecticut is a very blue state and the odds favor Murphy.

Delaware

Delaware is a reliably Democratic state and Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) is well known and popular.
Delaware Republicans were spared the embarrassment of another Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell
run when self-funding businessman Kevin Wade filed to run. He has no chance of winning, but
at least this will be a normal race focusing on taxes and other issues rather than on the
personality of the Republican nominee as it was in 2010.

Florida

Florida is the mother of all swing states and will be bitterly fought over in 2012 as usual.
In 2006, Bill Nelson dispatched the unpopular Katherine Harris, who ran the 2000 Florida elections.
This time he faces Cornelius McGillicuddy IV (sometimes referred to as "Connie Mack", his great grandfather).
Nelson is well known and has run a good campaign and polls show him to be in good shape.

Hawaii

With the retirement of Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI) next year, Hawaii has a rare open Senate seat.
The Democrats had a nasty primary between Rep.Mazie Hirono (D-HI) and former representative Ed Case.
Hirono won, in part because she is a Japanese American in a state where there are many Japanese Americans.
Her general election opponent is a bit of an oddity--a twice-divorced Republican female Jew who served two terms as
governor in this very blue state.
Hirono has to be regarded as the favorite. In any event, the winner will be Hawaii's first
female senator. As an added attraction, these two have met before. They ran against each other for governor in 2002
Lingle won that one but is the underdog this time.

Maryland

Maryland is a reliably Democratic state that Ben Cardin won by 10 points over former Lt. Gov. (later RNC chairman)
Michael Steele.
Cardin is so safe, that no serious Republican even bothered to get the nomination,
even though it was available just by asking. Ultimately, Dan Bongino, a former
Secret Service agent got the nod. Cardin will win in a landslide.

Michigan

Michigan has high unemployment and a lot depends on who the voters choose to blame.
If they feel it is Obama's fault, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) will be in big trouble. But if Obama
campaigns hard for Michigan and reminds people that the Republicans tried to block his efforts to same the
auto companies, it could be hard for Hoekstra to get any traction.

Minnesota

Although Minnesota is fundamentally a blue state (the last Republican presidential candidate to carry the
state was Richard Nixon in 1972), Republicans do win senatorial and gubernatorial elections fairly regularly.
If the Republicans had a strong candidate, they might be able to give one-term senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) a
good scare at least, but they don't so they won't.

Missouri

Missouri is perennially a swing state that Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) barely won in 2006. She is definitely
in the fight of her life this time. In fact, Missouri is probably the Republicans' third best shot at a Senate
pickup (after North Dakota and Nebraska).
Her one advantage here is that the Republicans understand her vulnerability very well, so there
was a bruising three-way primary won by Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO). McCaskill actually ran ads supporting him because
she thinks he is too conservative to win the general election.
After Akin said that rape victims don't get pregnant because their bodies shut that sort of thing down,
the entire Republican establishment abandoned Akin so McCaskill will have far more money than Akin.
At this point, she is probably the favorite.

Montana

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly won in 2006 against an incumbent senator, Conrad Burns, but one fond of making
outrageous statements. This time Tester will go up against the state's only congressman, Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT),
who has better mouth control and has won statewide races since 1990. It is likely to be a close race.

Nebraska

In case anyone was wondering why Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) has been such a gigantic pain in the tush to the Democrats
for the last two years, the reason should now be clear: he had to win an election in an extremely red state in 2012.
After much agonizing, he finally decided having to constantly fight both parties wasn't worth it, so he will
retire at the end of his term.
After much begging, the national Democratic Party convinced former Nebraska governor and
senator, Bob Kerrey, to go for another hurrah.
The Republican establishment settled on Attorney General Jon Bruning, but he was defeated by state senator
Deb Fischer, who is supported by the tea party. As a result, we may see a competitive general election here,
but Fischer has the early lead.

New Jersey

Although New Jersey elects Republican governors fairly regularly, like other states in the Northeast, it is
largely a Democratic bastion and Sen. Bob Menendez shouldn't have too much trouble getting reelected, especially
since the Republicans do not have a top-tier opponent.
The Republican, Joseph Kyrillos is close to Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), but that is not likely to help much
when Menendez unloads his massive warchest on Kyrillos.

New Mexico

The surprise retirement of Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) means that the Republicans have a shot at winning a
seat in this increasingly blue state. However, neither party had an obvious candidate, so there was
competitive primaries in both parties.
Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) defeated state auditor Hector Balderas in the Democratic primary and will face
former representative Heather Wilson (R) in November.
Wilson ran for the Senate
in 2008, but lost the primary election to congressman Steve Pearce, who went on to lose the general election
to Democrat Tom Udall.

New York

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) was appointed to Hillary Clinton's seat when she was named Secretary of State.
At first, many on the left were very negative about her as a result of her voting record in the House when
she represented a rural district near Albany. But after joining the Senate, she moved sharply to the left, saying
her job was to represent her constituents and now she represented a lot more of them. The voters bought that and
she won a special election in 2010 with ease.
Wendy Long, a tea party supporter, won the Republican primary. She doesn't have a prayer against Gillibrand
in the general election.

North Dakota

With the unexpected retirement of Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), the Democrats are going to be hard pressed to keep this
seat. The Republican candidate, Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND), is the state's only congressman and has run and won statewide
before. But he has been involved in franking and real estate scandals and
Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, a former state Attorney General, is running a top-notch retail campaign, so it may end being
fairly close. Nevertheless, North Dakota is a deep red state so the odds favor Berg.

Ohio

Ohio is perennially a swing state at all levels but Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is a tough campaigner who unseated
an incumbent Republican senator, Mike DeWine, in 2006.
The Republicans are running 33-year-old state Treasurer Josh Mandel, a proven fundraiser. But the unions' victory in
repealing the law limiting collective bargaining for state employees will help Brown since he strongly favored
repeal and is popular in union households.

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is a Blue Dog Democrat (opposes abortion, etc.) so it will not be easy for the Republicans
to label him as "too liberal." James Carville once described Pennsylvania as: "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with
Alabama in between." Casey is just liberal enough that he is tolerated in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and just
conservative enough that he is tolerated in between.
Wealthy coal executive Tom Smith spent $5 million of his own money to capture the Republican
senatorial nomination. However, in the general election with President Obama on top of the
ticket, a high turnout is expected in Philadelphia and Pittsburg and this may be enough to
help Casey to a second term.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state so Sheldon Whitehouse
will win reelection easily. In fact, he is so safe that no serious Republican even bothered
to file for the election. A young software entrepreneur was the only candidate so he got the
nomination by default, but it hardly matters.

Vermont

Bernie Sanders is the only openly socialist member of Congress, but he is immensely popular in Vermont and
will win in a walk.
Although technically Sanders is an independent, he caucuses with the Democrats and they won't run anyone
against him, leading to the odd situation of no Democrat running for the Senate in a very blue state.
Although the Republicans are not going to waste any money on this race, a rich businessman,
John MacGovern, filed for the nomination and got it. Unlike nearly all other rich businessmen
who try for high office, MacGovern has actually held elected office before--four terms in the
Massachusetts state house before he moved to Vermont. But despite this experience, he has no
chance against Sanders.

Virginia

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) won a real squeaker against George "Macaca" Allen in 2006 and probably could have beaten
him again this time, but decided that politics isn't so much fun after all. Since Allen, a former senator and
former governor of the commonwealth, is the likely Republican nominee, the Democrats had to find a serious
candidate quickly. They settled on Obama's handpicked DNC chairman, former Virginia governor Tim Kaine.
Kaine is well liked in the state and a lot will depend on how well Obama does in the state, which he carried in 2008.
Virginia has become a purple state, largely due to an influx of northerners in the counties close to D.C.,
and both the presidential and senatorial races are expected to be close.

Washington

Washington has become a reliable blue state and Maria Cantwell has nothing to fear from state senator Michael Baumgartner.
Washington has a jungle primary, so the two already competed against each other and Cantwell won, 55% to 30% and there
is no reason to think the general election results will be terribly different.

West Virginia

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) won a special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (to the extent anyone can
replace the legendary Byrd) but now he is running for a full term. Before he was senator, he was an immensely
popular governor. He has crossed swords with the Obama administration enough times that the Republicans will
have a tough time tying him closely to the President, who is not popular in West Virginia.
The Republican nominee is John Raese, a candidate whose occupation is running for
statewide office in West Virginia. He has done so in 1984, 1988, 2006, 2008, and 2010 with no success.
After it became known that his wife is registered to vote in Florida, where
he actually lives and where their children go to school, any possibility that he might win in this reddish state
evaporated.

Wisconsin

The Democrats were hit by a double whammy here. On the one hand, their well-entrenched, extremely wealthy, popular
incumbent, Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) decided to retire at 76, even though he could have been easily elected to the Senate
another two or three times if he lived long enough. To make this worse, their strongest candidate by far, former
senator Russ Feingold, decided not to run for his seat, even though he would have been the odds-on favorite.
Ultimately the Democrats found a nominee in Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who if elected would be the
first open lesbian in the Senate.
The Republicans had a nasty four-way primary won by former four-term governor
Tommy Thompson.
In any event, Kohl's
retirement turned a sure-fire Democratic hold into a pitched battle.
Initially, Thompson had the lead but more recently, Baldwin has moved ahead.

Republican-held seats

Arizona

The Republican nominee is Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ).
If she hadn't been shot, Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) would probably have run for the open Senate seat here,
but she decided to resign from Congress and not run for the Senate.
Consequently, the Democrats looked elsewhere, and came up with Richard Carmona, a former Surgeon General. As a Latino in
a state with a growing Latino population and a Vietnam veteran, he might give Flake a serious challenge.

Indiana

In a nasty primary, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea-party favorite, defeated six-term incumbent
Richard Lugar for the right to face Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) in November. Republicans are fearing and
Democrats are hoping that this race will be a repeat of the 2010 Senate races in Colorado, Delaware, and
Nevada, in which tea party candidates upset the establishment favorites in the primaries only to go down
to defeat in the general election. Indiana is normally a red state, but Democrats Birch Bayh and his
son Evan Bayh served a total of five terms in the Senate representing Indiana, so this will be a competitive race.
Mourdock will try to appeal to conservatives while Donnelly will say he is more interested in solving
problems for the people of Indiana than he is in ideological purity.

Maine

With Olympia Snowe's sudden retirement, this seat suddenly became the the Democrat's #1 pickup opportunity.
When former Democrat and former governor Angus King announced he was running as an independent, it shook up
the race completely and scared off all the serious Democrats who were afraid of a three-way race which would allow the Republican to eke out a win.
King has refused to say who he will caucus with, but observers expect him to caucus with the Democrats,
like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
As a consequence, the Democratic primary was among relatively unknown candidates, with both of
the state's representatives declining to run. A key issue here is whether King, who is strongly favored to win,
gives private assurances to the Democrats that he will caucus with them. If he does (even if he denies it in public),
they will essentially sabotage their own candidate, Cynthia Dill, to avoid a repeat of the 2010 three-way gubernatorial
race, in which an independent in the race split the vote, resulting in a tea-party Republican, Paul LePage being
elected governor.

Massachusetts

This is the seat second most likely to flip in the Senate. Scott Brown won a special election
to fill the seat of the late senator Ted Kennedy, but he had the good fortune to be running against a lazy and
arrogant candidate who felt that campaigning was beneath her dignity. That won't happen again. Now he
will face Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and strong consumer rights advocate, who will pull in tons of
out-of-state money and who took the lead in the polls within a month of entering the race. Still, Brown has a
lot of money in the bank. The two candidates have arranged a series of debates which have gotten nasty.
This one could go down to the wire.

Mississippi

It is hard to imagine why a Democrat would want to run against Roger Wicker since no matter what,
Wicker will win in a landslide. Nevertheless, a retired Army colonel, Albert Nottly Gore, Jr.
filed for the nomination and won the primary against even lesser known candidates.

Nevada

Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) when the Republican Senate caucus
basically forced John Ensign out of the race due to his long-term affair with the wife of one of his staffers
followed by a very clumsy attempt to buy everyone's silence. Nevada has become a purple state which Obama
carried easily in 2008 and with him on the top of the ticket again in 2012, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV), the
likely Democratic nominee, has a good shot at knocking him off. In addition, voters tend not to like
appointed senators except in very red or very blue states, which Nevada is not.

Tennessee

Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is a shoo-in for reelection as the Democratic bench in Tennessee is not deep at all.
In fact, no serious politician or businessman even ran, so a totally unknown floor installer who belongs
to some fringe hate groups won the primary.
No doubt dyed-in-the-wool Democrats will vote for Clayton out of habit, but it won't matter. Corker will win in a landslide.

Texas

With Sen. Kay Hutchison (R-TX) retiring, there was a nasty Republican primary between the establishment candidate, Lt. Gov. David Dewhust, and tea party favorite, Ted Cruz.
Cruz won and will face an unknown Democrat, Paul Sadler, in November. Cruz is a shoo-in and is seen as a rising tea party star, along with fellow Latino, Marco Rubio.

Utah

Winning statewide elections in Utah is something Democrats don't do very often so it is a safe bet that
a Republican will be elected to the Senate in 2012. But which one? Orrin Hatch is a deeply conservative
Republican, but so was Bob Bennett but that didn't save him from coming in third at the state Republican
convention in 2010 and thus not even making it to the primary ballot.
Hatch did better than Bennett, coming in first in the convention, but not by enough to avoid a primary with
tea party favorite Dan Liljenquist. Hatch is likely to win the primary.
The Democrats nominated former state senate minority leader Scott Howell, but he has no chance against Hatch
and probably no chance against Liljenquist, either.

Wyoming

Sen. John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 by then governor Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) after the death of
Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY). Normally a governor would appoint a member of his own party to fill a Senate seat,
but Wyoming law states that the state party of the senator who died or resigned must pick three candidates
and the governor must choose one of them. Freudenthal picked Barrasso as the weakest of the three, but he
still won a special election in 2008 to fill out the remainder of Thomas' term. Now he is running for a full
term and will win easily. The Democrats nominated a County Commissioner although it is not clear why they even bothered.