Pitching the Projections

Spring Training has finally begun, and the St. Louis Cardinals are at their usual preseason headquarters in Jupiter, Florida. Coaches and players, new and returning, have gathered at the facility with an optimistic outlook to the season ahead. The club had a sporadic off-season this year, which consisted of signing 3 free agents and completing 4 trades. Amidst the new faces this season are Marcell Ozuna, Dominic Leone, Luke Gregerson, and Bud Norris. In addition, the Cardinals received two infield prospects in the Piscotty deal–Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock. While we may not see either of those prospects on the big league roster this season, they are an upgrade for the minor league affiliates.

Overall, it’s hard to be mad at the array of players that were acquired this off-season. The front office accomplished exactly what they desperately needed to, which included adding an impact bat and creating a more reliable bullpen. The more important of the two, in my opinion, was putting together a bullpen with multiple options for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. The Cardinals may not have spent the money on a big time closer, like nearly everyone demanded. However, they are now equipped with a list of considerable bullpen options. This will not only improve the later innings, but will also help the younger starters limit their pitch counts.

The Cardinal’s #1 prospect, Alex Reyes, should return around May or June as he finishes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Needless to say—it will be interesting to see what role he ends up in. If he’s added to the rotation, then who gets the boot? Last week, (GM) Michael Girsch commented on the future situation on the Bernie Miklasz Show saying, “it’d be difficult to see Alex Reyes in a closer role.” Although that doesn’t exempt his chances of being a long-relief option in the bullpen, I think the club will make the right choice and squeeze him into the rotation. Yes—even if that means using one of those 6-man rotations that other organizations have proposed.

Now that Winter transactions are presumably over for the Cardinals, many analysts and fans have shared their disgruntled attitude towards the front office. Majority of Cardinal Nation is concerned about the organization not adding another big name to coincide with Ozuna. What some fans may not understand is that the club has in fact opened multiple doors for the coaching staff to work with. Not to forget, they opened these doors without spending inflated prices for players like Wade Davis or Eric Hosmer. Are they saving salary for the upcoming free agent classes? It’s difficult to tell what exactly is going on in the mind of the front office–only time will tell. What we do know is that the Cardinals now have several respectable options out of the bullpen; as well as an impact bat that provides relief to the lineup.

Despite the questions that still surround majority of the Cardinal’s roster, analysts and baseball enthusiasts have been given the challenging task of creating their own projections. In general, projections are one of the most difficult exercises to find success in; and this roster doesn’t make it any easier. Difficulty aside, creating projections is an interesting, and fun, way to measure your ability to forecast future production of teams and players. Numerous projections are currently available on websites like Fangraphs, fantasy baseball apps, and social media accounts.

Considering the amount of irritated fans, I felt obligated to create my own projections to help alleviate some of the stress. And if you can’t seem to wrap your mind around my projections, I decided to include other’s projections as well. The following projections are courtesy of Dan Szymborski (ESPN Analyst), Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast), @GMGirsch (Twitter), and Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports).

“It’s really hard to guess what he’s going to do out of Japan. What we hope that he does is 15 or more wins, we hope his ERA stays low in the 3’s (like 2.90 or 3.00), we hope he throws 200 innings (which I don’t know)…it’s really hard to guess.”

In the end, how can you be upset with any of these projections? Understandably, they are only numbers and are not what we will likely see when the season comes to an end. Nonetheless, if any of those projections come close to being correct, then we can assume the Cardinals ended the 2-year drought of not making it to the postseason. Whether it’s the lineup, rotation, or bullpen, this team can (and will) compete with the best in all of baseball. Personally, I am eager to get this season underway and to witness all of these preseason question marks erased.

Let’s go Birds!

Pitching the Projections was last modified: August 16th, 2018 by Josh Potter