Beware the black swan, says trader who bets on disaster

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The psychology that makes us ignore risks of catastrophe must be fought, according to a bestselling author

Will it all go wrong when you interview an expert on random catastrophes? My meeting with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the options trader-turned-author of the bestseller Fooled By Randomness, starts without a hitch, but that’s no cause for complacency.

“You don’t know what’s going to hit you and where it’s coming from,” Dr Taleb says. “You may not be able to do much about the unknown unknowns, but at least you can be cautious and be aware.”

Business leaders should take notice, he says. His grand idea, in his new book, The Black Swan, is the damage done by very rare