MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271537Z - 271730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM EXTREME
ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND IS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE LINE IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STILL CAPPED AND HAS NOT YET UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE NOW EVIDENT WITHIN THE
MULTILAYER CLOUDS ACROSS WRN MO AND THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE SLY LLJ
AXIS. DEEP LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE IN THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES NEWD ALONG THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS. THUS THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
TORNADO ACTIVITY...SOME CHANGE IN CHARACTER OF THE STORMS MAY OCCUR
WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 36609451 37249483 38139494 39529525 40449549 41059498
40879387 39709322 36969352 36609451