Pac-12 Conference: A calendar of upcoming events

Now that we’ve cleared a major milestone with realignment, I thought it would be a good time to provide an overview of upcoming off-field/court events.

The dates/windows are approximate, of course.

(Comments at bottom.)

Oct. 28: Pac-10 men’s basketball media day in Los Angeles. Look for Washington to be the preseason favorite and no major announcements by the league regarding the future of the event.

November: Completion of the 2011 football schedules, which are being reviewed by the athletic directors. (Note: Cal and Colorado are still waiting to hear whether their September date in Boulder will count as a conference game. If it does, both will have to scramble to find a non-conference opponent.)

Nov.-Dec.: Completion of the 2011-12 basketball schedules, which are in the process of being tweaked for television.

Dec.: TV arrangement for the 2011 football championship game. Remember, the mew media rights agreement won’t kick in until 2012-13, which means the ’11 event will be negotiated independently – most likely before the league begins serious negotiations on its future media deal.

Jan. – May/June: Although preliminary work is underway, the serious negotiations for a new media rights contract won’t begin until early 2012. The league will first sit down with its current partners (Fox, ESPN) before exploring other options, but my sense is that it will have a pretty good sense for the end game early in the process. During the negotiations, it will explore the possibility of forming its own TV network.

Next spring: The future of the basketball tournaments. Will the men’s and women’s events be held in the same venue? Will there be a fixed location or a rotation? The league plans to evaluate the situation after the ’11 tournaments. The league’s media partners will no doubt have a say in the matter. (The men’s tournament is under contract with FSN and Staples Center through March ’12.)

May: During its annual spring meetings, the league must finalize its summer media strategy – whether it will take the coaches on another east coast tour.

Down the road: Commissioner Larry Scott wants to take the league international, selling TV rights throughout the Pacific Rim – and possibly taking all-star teams to Asia. However, the Big Ten has submitted a proposal to the NCAA that would disallow international travel (an attempt to cut costs). If the legislation passes, we’ve got no chance to see USC play Oregon in Beijing.

Chief operating officer Kevin Weiberg was the Big 12 commissioner for xx years and then served as an executive at the Big Ten Network – he knows the collegiate sports landscape as well as anyone.

(I’ve written this before but it’s worth repeating: Hiring Weiberg was the best move Scott has made in his 15 months on the job.)

With Scott and Weiberg, the conference office can take a divide-and-conquer approach to its agenda.

* The biggest issue, by far, is the mew media rights deal. There’s no question the conference will double its existing TV revenue (approx $55 million).

But Scott has raised expectations to the point that many inside and outside the conference expect to triple the current revenue. (And if that happens, they’ll be popping champagne from Pullman to Tucson.)

* The question that may not get answered — but one that many, myself included, have been asking since June — is the value of expansion.

In other words: Do Utah and Colorado bring enough to the table to make a 1/12 split of the revenues greater than a 1/10 split would have been.

* One of the most interesting components of the league’s agenda is the future of the men’s basketball tournament, which is hardly a can’t-miss event.

One problem with Staples Center as a fixed location — you can thank Fox for that — is the tournament has become dependent on USC and UCLA for its success. When the L.A. schools aren’t very good, then you get entire sections of empty seats (as we saw last March).

The benefit to rotation sites is that the event becomes, well, an event. If it’s in Portland once every four or five years, for instance, fans are more likely to attend regardless of the local teams’ prospects.

Now that we’ve cleared a major milestone with realignment, this seemed like a good time to provide an overview of upcoming off-field/court events.

The timeframes for most of the items are approximate, of course.

(My comments at bottom.)

Oct. 28: Pac-10 men’s basketball media day in Los Angeles.

Look for Washington to be the preseason favorite and no major announcements by the league regarding the future of the event.

Nov: Completion of the 2011 football schedules, which are being reviewed by the athletic directors.

(Note: Cal and Colorado are still waiting to hear whether their September date in Boulder will count as a conference game. If it does, both will have to scramble to find a non-conference opponent.)

Nov.-Dec.: Completion of the 2011-12 basketball schedules, which are in the process of being tweaked for television.

The 18-game league season will remain intact: Teams will play home-and-away games against their natural rival (2) and, on a rotating basis, home-and-away against six other teams (12), plus single games against four teams (4).

Dec.: TV deal for the 2011 football championship game.

The current deal with Fox (signed years ago) doesn’t include a football title game and the new (unsigned) TV deal won’t kick in until 2012-13. All of which means the 2011 event can be negotiated independently – most likely before the league begins serious negotiations on next media contract.

Jan. – May/June: Media rights deal.

Although preliminary work is underway, the serious negotiations won’t begin until early 2012. The league will first sit down with its current partners (Fox, ESPN) before exploring other options, but my sense is that it will have a pretty good feel for the end game early in the process.

During the negotiations, it will explore the possibility of forming its own TV network. (The guess here is that a Pac-12 Network becomes reality.)

April-June: The future of the basketball tournaments.

Will the men’s and women’s events be held in the same venue? Will there be a fixed location or a rotation? The league plans to evaluate the situation after the ’11 tournaments, and its future TV partner will no doubt have a say in the matter.

(The men’s tournament is under contract with FSN and Staples Center through March ’12.)

May: During its annual spring meetings, the league must finalize its summer media strategy – whether it will take the football coaches on another east coast blitz.

Down the road: Commissioner Larry Scott wants to take the league international, selling TV rights throughout the Pacific Rim – and possibly taking all-star teams to Asia.

However, the Big Ten has submitted a proposal to the NCAA that would prevent international travel (an attempt to cut costs). If that legislation passes, we’ve got no chance to see USC play Oregon in Beijing.

**** Four thoughts on the agenda:

1) It’s extremely ambitious — too ambitious, in my mind, for one commissioner. Good thing the Pac-12 has two.

Deputy commissioner/COO Kevin Weiberg was the commissioner of the Big 12 for nine years and then served as an executive at the Big Ten Network. He knows the college sports landscape as well as anyone. (I’ve written this before but it’s worth repeating: Hiring Weiberg was the best move Scott has made in his 15 months on the job.)

With Scott and Weiberg, the conference can take a divide-and-conquer approach to its agenda.

2) The biggest issue, by far, is the new media rights deal. There’s no question the conference will double its existing TV revenue ($50-55 million).

But Scott has raised expectations to the point that many inside and outside the conference expect to triple the current revenue. If that happens, they’ll be popping champagne from Pullman to Tucson.

3) The question that may not get answered — but one that many, myself included, have been asking since June — is the ultimate value of expansion.

In other words: Will Utah and Colorado bring enough to the table to make a 1/12 split of the overall revenues greater than a 1/10 split would have been.

4) One of the most interesting items on the league’s agenda is the future of the men’s basketball tournament, which is hardly a can’t-miss event.

One problem with Staples Center as a fixed location — you can thank Fox for that — is the tournament has become dependent on USC and UCLA for its success. When the L.A. schools aren’t very good (or ineligible), you get entire sections of empty seats.

The benefit to a site rotation is that the event becomes, well, an event. If it’s in Portland once every four or five years, for instance, fans are more likely to attend regardless of how good or bad the Oregon schools are.

Jon Wilner

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My perception of you Wilner, is that you have been a cheerleader for the expansion from the start—what with your “Zipper Plan” etc. The questions about the “vaue of the expansion” (#3 above) were supplanted by your “faith” in Larry and Kevin. Frankly I thought you had dropped the “journalistic ball” and contented yourself with the avalanche of hits to the site. Never once did you bring up the real word problems of expanding a “franchise” in a contracting universe and had assumed the Pac10 geographic fan base would always be stable.

stanfordfan

Hey, Telrod, go ahead and shoot the messenger… Jon reported the inside scoop on the Pac 10 expansion with journalistic integrity, and he did it better than any other journalist out there. I know, because I’ve been scouring the blogosphere for anything I can get my hands on.

Tmack

Jon,

You beat the hell out of the “value of expansion” horse when it was alive, and now you’re still beating after it’s dead. Let it go Jon. Honestly, don’t you think the PAC chancellors and execs did their homework and KNOW expansion was going to be of value?? Please explain why they would do it if they didn’t know it was a money maker. You can’t. You were wrong, let it go.

Calfan

“Will Utah and Colorado bring enough to the table to make a 1/12 split of the overall revenues greater than a 1/10 split would have been.” Really? You’re still asking that question? It’s a MOOT point Jon, please let it die in peace, along with the Pac-10, the Pac-8 before that and the “Big 6” before that. The changes made the upcoming Pac-12 relevant and exciting. That, alone, justifies them. Please no whining about the old days, before the new days are even here.

Nick

If the media rights do in fact triple to $170 million (the number it has to reach so the Pac-12 doesn’t pay extra to the LA schools), how much extra money will each school receive? Or more bluntly, how much money stays with the conference and how much gets distributed to each school?

Finnmann

Seems to me that a significant portion of the value of expansion will never be known, because it lies in the removal of some serious risks. For example, had the Pac 10 stood pat, and negotiated a new media deal that was slightly better than the current one, and other conferences took the lead in developing a ‘super conference,’ we could have seen the LA schools stolen away and the Pac 10 scrambling to maintain the status quo. It’s important to be acting and not acted upon. I love the old traditions, but the new reality may not have allowed them to continue without expansion.

JMod

“(Note: Cal and Colorado are still waiting to hear whether their September date in Boulder will count as a conference game. If it does, both will have to scramble to find a non-conference opponent.)”

Jon is there a way for Cal and Colorado to play and NOT count as a conference game? If these isn’t than that would mean that the only two options would be to have it count as a conference game or cancel it altogether. In that case both teams would need to schedule a NEW non-conference game, so shouldn’t the scrambling already be happening? (Although with all the conference alignment changes they will probably have success after the new MWC, Big 12(10), and BigTen(Twelve) set their schedules, either that or go FCS)

Meep.

Dude, that would be awesome. Pac-12 All Stars versus China.

JJ

Yes, I don’t know how a game between Cal and CU could not be counted as a conference game so assuming it isn’t canceled and the conference doesn’t want each school to play 10 conference games next year, both should be lining up a new OOC opponent.

mk92

Actually, this happens in baseball all the time…for instance, in some seasons, Stanford has played Cal 6 times (2 series) in the season, with only one of the series counting for conference standings purposes.

Sadly, this will no longer be the case once the Bears quit playing baseball.

huskylenz

The “value of expansion” is being in a position in 5 years to pick up 4 more teams and make that Pac-16 a reality. He’s thinking that Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, and either Texas A&M or Texas Tech still join the Pac-12 eventually.

If Texas A&M joins, then Texas Tech joins a new 12-team MWC.

If Texas Tech joins, then Texas A&M joins a new SEC-14/16

Bet on it.

CB1

I don’t see how CU and Cal play an ‘OOC’ game next year. CU is moving from a 8 game conference schedule to a 9 game conference schedule, so they will have to get rid of an OOC game.

Plus playing a conference opponent and not having it count is silly.

CB1

As for the hoops tourney- Put that bad boy in Vegas. If your team loses, just hit the casino. It’s just too hard to commit to a road trip w/ one guaranteed game. Plus when the brackets come out sunday, everyone can throw down their NCAA bets.

Kerr

As for the hoops tourney- Put that bad boy in Vegas.

Be in the same city that THREE OTHER conferences hold their tournaments? Not likely.

Robber Baron 83

If Colorado is going from 4 OOC games to only 3 they had to get rid of one, right? Did they already do that? Because if they haven’t, they don’t really have to do anything. Cal is the OOC game they get rid of, either because it will be a conference game or because the game will be canceled. The other 3 scheduled OOC opponents can still be CU’s 3 OOC opponents next year. Cal is the only one that needs to worry about finding a new foe in short order.

Dawkins can recruit, now let’s see if he can coach. Who knows, maybe men’s basketball will be a money-maker at Stanford?

OS_Beaver

We are crazy for basketball in Portland..we have the NBA’s best attendance in basketball..a very long sellout record. The Pac-12 owes the NW a favor since we got the shortest stick in the Pac-12 structure by missing games in LA every other year.

Any tournament at the Rose Garden is a GUARANTEED SELLOUT and would amp up the level of excitement for the tournament. Portland is a neutral site too because OSU and UO are in different cities/towns. Portland is actually a great place to visit and we do very well when we host NCAA first round action, so I know a Pac-10 tourney here would be a smashing success!!

Adam

I hear Boise State is looking for OOC schools to schedule against if Cal is willing?

Konce

Conference expansion is not a good deal.

Jacob Wang

Will Stanford & Cal DEFINITELY play the LA schools in hoops?

CB1

All P12 teams play once in basketball, but there won’t be guaranteed yearly home and home series between NorCal and SoCal. 18 game schedule means 11 games versus everyone and then 7 teams play twice. So outside of the yearly rivalry home and home, each school will play a home and home 6 years out of 10 with every other conference team.