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ABC's According to Jim has returned to dreadful ratings, but like a zombie it refuses to die. Such are the massive profits to be found in off network syndication, that a ratings black hole in prime time is worth the back end money. ATJ debuts on our Renew/Cancel list with the worst index of any currently surviving scripted show. It started off with two airings in a row, perhaps ABC is just trying to get the episodes aired as quickly as possible and move on. Let me add that while I've marked it as "Not Likely To Be Renewed", I really have no idea what will happen. It survives without ratings now, who knows how long it will live!

The holiday rerun season has begun, and with some specials mixed in will continue until late January/early February, so don't expect much meaningful action in the list before then. What you should expect is that CBS's averages, which depend heavily on scripted procedurals which rerun well, will likely maintain themselves better during reruns than some other networks, ABC in particular, which depends on two big serial dramas, Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy, which rerun poorly.

While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancelled/Not Returning, Not Likely To Be Renewed, orRenewal Likely for 2009-10.

PROGRAM

Net

STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)

Network Avg. STD 18-49

Renew/ Cancel index

Status

EASY MONEY (1)

CW

288

1,230

0.23

cancelled

VALENTINE (1)

CW

345

1,230

0.28

cancelled

CRUSOE

NBC

1,428

3,670

0.39

on Sat

LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2)

NBC

1,996

3,670

0.54

cancelled

DO NOT DISTURB

FOX

2,097

3,670

0.57

cancelled

EX LIST, THE (2)

CBS

2,443

4,050

0.60

cancelled

ELI STONE

ABC

2,378

3,910

0.61

cancelled

PUSHING DAISIES

ABC

2,389

3,910

0.61

cancelled

ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM

ABC

2,480

3,910

0.63

ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P

ABC

2,484

3,910

0.64

TIL DEATH

FOX

2,364

3,670

0.64

off sched

DIRTY SEXY MONEY

ABC

2,584

3,910

0.66

cancelled

NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE (3)

CBS

2,850

4,050

0.70

LIFE - WED (4)

NBC

2,596

3,670

0.71

EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2)

CW

884

1,230

0.72

BOSTON LEGAL

ABC

2,852

3,910

0.73

finished

MY OWN WORST ENEMY

NBC

2,689

3,670

0.73

cancelled

NUMB3RS (2)

CBS

2,969

4,050

0.73

KNIGHT RIDER

NBC

2,696

3,670

0.73

TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES

FOX

2,743

3,670

0.75

GARY UNMARRIED

CBS

3,067

4,050

0.76

GAME, THE (2)

CW

987

1,230

0.80

LAW AND ORDER

NBC

2,964

3,670

0.81

PRISON BREAK

FOX

3,032

3,670

0.83

UNIT, THE

CBS

3,352

4,050

0.83

WITHOUT A TRACE

CBS

3,426

4,050

0.85

GHOST WHISPERER (2)

CBS

3,449

4,050

0.85

UGLY BETTY

ABC

3,406

3,910

0.87

KATH & KIM

NBC

3,202

3,670

0.87

PRIVILEGED

CW

1,095

1,230

0.89

COLD CASE

CBS

3,648

4,050

0.90

CHUCK

NBC

3,326

3,670

0.91

PRIVATE PRACTICE

ABC

3,566

3,910

0.91

Last season shows below this line were typically renewed

SAMANTHA WHO?

ABC

3,589

3,910

0.92

LIFE ON MARS

ABC

3,626

3,910

0.93

MY NAME IS EARL

NBC

3,513

3,670

0.96

WORST WEEK

CBS

4,025

4,050

0.99

ELEVENTH HOUR

CBS

4,074

4,050

1.01

AMERICAN DAD

FOX

3,995

3,670

1.09

BONES

FOX

4,200

3,670

1.14

BIG BANG THEORY, THE

CBS

4,638

4,050

1.15

MENTALIST, THE

CBS

4,694

4,050

1.16

KING OF THE HILL

FOX

4,258

3,670

1.16

not renewed

NCIS

CBS

4,700

4,050

1.16

CSI: NY

CBS

4,793

4,050

1.18

E.R.

NBC

4,548

3,670

1.24

final season

BROTHERS & SISTERS

ABC

4,852

3,910

1.24

HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER

CBS

5,135

4,050

1.27

CSI: MIAMI

CBS

5,172

4,050

1.28

CRIMINAL MINDS

CBS

5,193

4,050

1.28

LAW AND ORDER:SVU

NBC

4,786

3,670

1.30

FRINGE

FOX

4,865

3,670

1.33

30 ROCK

NBC

4,922

3,670

1.34

SUPERNATURAL

CW

1,705

1,230

1.39

SIMPSONS

FOX

5,241

3,670

1.43

FAMILY GUY

FOX

5,271

3,670

1.44

HEROES

NBC

5,370

3,670

1.46

90210

CW

1,939

1,230

1.58

TWO AND A HALF MEN

CBS

6,458

4,050

1.59

OFFICE

NBC

5,970

3,670

1.63

SMALLVILLE

CW

2,047

1,230

1.66

GOSSIP GIRL

CW

2,050

1,230

1.67

ONE TREE HILL

CW

2,136

1,230

1.74

CSI

CBS

7,102

4,050

1.75

HOUSE

FOX

6,837

3,670

1.86

GREY'S ANATOMY

ABC

7,608

3,910

1.95

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES

ABC

7,913

3,910

2.02

-

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.

(3) New Adventures of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.

(4) Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

And for folks thinking "No way would the networks cancel all of those shows", there were 25 scripted shows cancelled in the 2007-8 season. That is, shows that ran during 2007-8 that did not come back for 2008-9. These same networks cancelled at least 30 scripted shows that aired during 2006-7, although that's just from a quick look at that season to date list that could suffer from a number of possible errors on my part, but the magnitude of shows cancelled was similar.

As I wrote earlier, I’m going to begin taking into account the 18-49 ratings trends for the shows near last season’s Renew / Cancel line of 0.92 in projecting their fate at the end of this season. For example, while Cold Case and Without a Trace have Indexes below 0.92, their trends are positive and I think, on that basis, renewal is likely for both. If you see shows now indicating green that have Indexes below 0.92, it’s because their 18-49 trend has been positive. And even though Privilegedcurrently seems to be "safe" the fact that it's being taken out of the schedule in March with no word on its future puts it in doubt.

----------------------------------------------------------------For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However the closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.