Ray Ison, Professor in Systems at the UK Open University since 1994, is a member of the Applied Systems Thinking in Practice Group. From 2008-15 he also developed and ran the Systemic Governance Research Program at Monash University, Melbourne. In this blog he reflects on contemporary issues from a systemic perspective.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Systems practice in and of itself is neither ethical or unethical as all practice is in the hands of the practitioner in a given context. What is, or is not, ethical is always situated. My musings on this question has been triggered by reading material on 'transformative scenario planning' by Adam Kahane. Kahane became known based on his leadership of the Mont Fleur Scenario exercise in South Africa in the early 1990s, an exercise that many claim helped in positive ways to transition to a post-apartheid state as well as shaping some of the ANC's early political and economic strategies.

Anyone who has more than a passing aquaintance with systems scholarship knows that scenario planning was mainly developed within the Royal Dutch Shell oil company. It was the adaptive scenario work done by Pierre Wack in the early 1970s, 'envisaging' the 1973 oil crisis, that led to scenario planning being institutionalised in Shell.....and presumedly other companies, including other oil companies. Wack's work enabled Shell, one of the weakest of the infamous 'seven sister's who dominated the oil industry, to emerge from the 1973 oil shock as one of the strongest.

According to Kahane, scenario planning in Shell developed under the leadership of Ged Davis and Kees van der Heijden. Kahane, who was a Shell employee when he went to South Africa, attributes his own learning of scenario planning to these 'two masters'. Shell was also a pioneer in the use of SSM (soft-systems methodology) and Kees van der Heijden was an important player in this activity - as examples written up in several of Peter Checkland's books testify. SSM can be used as a form of scenario practice and Kahane's 'transformative scenario' practice seems replete with systemic thinking and practice.

With this as background my musings turn to the question of how scenario planning has been used, particularly in the oil industry, in the 45 or so years since Shell began using it. For example, was it used in the move by BP into 'beyond petroleum' and then the rather rapid departure from that set of narratives and commitments? Why did most major oil and energy companies abandon their diversified portfolios, including renewable energy assets, in the early 2000s? Were these decisions guided by an undisclosed 'Big Tobacco' scenario? Or a 'make hay while we can' scenario? Or an 'exploit our social operating licence to the full - till we are stopped' scenario? My musings are prompted by news of an inquiry that may be gathering steam in California:

"Activist Tom Steyer’s comments followed reports that California
attorney general is looking into what the world’s biggest oil company
knew about climate change........into allegations that ExxonMobil spent decades lying to investors and the public about its knowledge of climate change."

It is clear that practices informed by systems thinking and practice can be used to good effect; whether the practice is ethical or not is another question. When framed in terms of Heinz von Forster's ethical imperative:

...."act always so as to
increase the number of choices" or "I always act so as to increase the number of choices".......

then the actions of oil companies, should it be shown that they deliberately set out to prolong their business model in the face of overwhelming evidence about climate change, have clearly acted unethically. Collectively they will have acted to limit the choices we humans have as we move into a climate-change world.

The name reflects the vision and the core of the programme. We are looking forward to setting the stage for the contemporary avantgarde of Systems Science and Practice, connecting the achievements of the past with inspiring potentials for the future. The new emcsr avantgarde will be the “talent” scout event in the field of Systems Science.

An international scientific jury (selection committee) of renowned experts in their respective fields (philosophy, science, engineering, design, and art) will select the competition attendees and their submissions. Every selected researcher is a nominee for “The Ludwig von Bertalanffy Young Scientist Award” donated by the main organizer of the event, the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (BCSSS). The winner will be chosen through real-­time voting by the audience of the emcsr avantgarde meetings. It is the first prototype for “scientific talent” scouting independent of the age and career status of the candidates. The BCSSS as a role model is also eager to meet further potential candidates, master and PhD students, for their upcoming scholarship programme (starting in 2017) through the event, independent from the playful award contest.

This is a unique opportunity to discover the next generation of systems researchers. We intend to invite universities, foundations, donors, startups and investors as well as human resource managers to meet their future potential talents at the emcsr avantgarde.

The emcsr avantgarde will also offer satellite workshops. These workshops are
focused on a Specific topic, organized by an invited group of already established
researchers, and offer opportunities to showcase and further elaborate contemporary
trends in Cybernetics and Systems Science.

The emcsr avantgarde will be intentionally a smaller exclusive conference meeting.
We want to ensure that the selection of submissions reflect quality, thus the referee
process will be rigor.We also want to ensure
that we enable vivid interaction at the conference meetings through the number of
attendees.

The emcsr avantgarde is the 23rd European Meeting on Cybernetics
and Systems Research in Vienna building on 40 years of tradition. In 1972, the emcsr
offered its first forum for discussion of converging ideas and new aspects of different
scientific disciplines.The emcsr was
co-founded by the Austrian Society for Cybernetics Studies, chaired by Robert Trappl,
which established the Austrian Institute for Artificial Intelligence in Vienna,
too.

Since then every two years senior scientists met in Vienna to present in workshops
and symposia their latest research results and discuss the rapid developments in
our society. From 2016 on the main stage is set for the young researchers, too.

We are very happy that Robert Trappl will be present at the reinvented emcsr
avantgarde, when we establish the milestone for the 21st century scientific
avantgarde connected to the roots of the provocative avant-garde of the 70s.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Caption: The Seaford foreshore - nature in
the city. Over forty-thousand people live within 15 driving or walking
minutes of the Seaford foreshore and beach. City creeks, reserves and
landscapes managed
by Councils, communities, Melbourne Water and Parks Victoria may not be
wilderness with threatened species but 4.5 million Melbournians need
natural places like this for physical and mental health and well-being.

The Port Philip and Westernport CMA (PPW Catchment Management Authority) recently made this Facebook posting. It draws on work in which some of their staff are involved being conducted under the aegis of the Lonsdale Systems Group's designed and facilitated collaborative, systemic, inquiry into NRM governance in Victoria.

DOES NATURE MATTER TO PEOPLE IN URBAN MELBOURNE?

Social science and
intuition agree - contact with nature is critical to the health and
well-being of over 15 million city Australians.

Melbourne Water’s
waterways program, Council environment staff and Parks Victoria conserve
nature in our city but against daily competition for space and
resources. Past government strategy has often under-recognised
urban conservation.

A new Victorian Biodiversity Strategy
is being made. A draft will be released soon and it’s an opportunity
for change. The PPWCMA’s Regional Strategy Team and Living Links
Coordinator are working with
council and community leaders and the Department of Environment, Land,
Water & Planning to help the new Biodiversity Strategy better
recognise urban community needs and connections with nature.

The PPWCMA’s Regional
Strategy Team is also consulting with its partners on a written
response to the Draft Biodiversity Strategy. The response will focus on
the importance of urban nature conservation and
the value of its partners’ work to keep nature alive and well in the
city.

Beginning in Aarhus in 2012 a PhD 'short-course' organised as a 'systemic inquiry' has been offered in conjunction with the biennial conference of the European chapter of the IFSA (International Farming Systems Association). In the past these have attracted ECTS points for participating PhD students who are also required to attend the conference.

The Italian Systems Society (AIRS) was founded in the 1996. The AIRS is a network of academicians, scientists, researchers and professionals involved in Systemics. A partial list of disciplines represented is:

For some time the innovative work of Humberto Maturana has been neglected, or sidelined, within the fields of perception/cognition research as the current mainstream paradigm pursues, to my mind, a barren trajectory. But the situation may be changing - take a look at this Ted Talk which adds empirical evidence to much of what can be found in Maturana's work (which was itself empirically based).

As may be seen from this site, Beau Lotto, who delivers the Ted Talk has a new model of lab, the Lottolab, under development at UCL in London. It is claimed:

"Lottolab Studio is the world’s first public perception research space. Perception underpins everything that we feel, think
and believe. It is the source of all artistic expression and scientific
exploration. What we perceive IS who we are."

Humberto Maturana, in the workshop conversations that I have experienced, always begins by exploring how and why humans in our living can not, in the moment, distinguish between perception and illusion. This is the human condition, as this Ted Talk makes clear.