Down to the wire: AEI Political Report, October 2012

* Late deciders: In 2008, 4 percent of voters did not decide which presidential candidate to support until Election Day – and they preferred Obama over McCain. We explore how late deciders have cast their vote since 1984.

* Demographic groups: In this issue, we examine how two dozen groups have voted in presidential elections going back to 1974. Some of the highlights:

* Starting in 1980, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men.

* Since 1984, married voters have supported the Republican candidate more than voters who are not married.

* Those who identify as independents have sided with the winning candidate in each of the past ten elections except in 1976 and 2004. In 2008, they were 29 percent of all voters.

* In 1972, union households voted narrowly for Richard Nixon, but these households have voted for Democratic candidates ever since. In 2008, they were about a quarter of the electorate.

* ID laws: Most polls show that large majorities of Americans support voter identification requirements. While Pennsylvania’s voter ID law won’t be enforced in this election, 64 percent of Pennsylvanians supported it in a recent Philadelphia Inquirer poll.

* Late deciders: In 2008, 4 percent of voters did not decide which presidential candidate to support until Election Day – and they preferred Obama over McCain. We explore how late deciders have cast their vote since 1984.

* Demographic groups: In this issue, we examine how two dozen groups have voted in presidential elections going back to 1974. Some of the highlights:

* Starting in 1980, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men.

* Since 1984, married voters have supported the Republican candidate more than voters who are not married.

* Those who identify as independents have sided with the winning candidate in each of the past ten elections except in 1976 and 2004. In 2008, they were 29 percent of all voters.

* In 1972, union households voted narrowly for Richard Nixon, but these households have voted for Democratic candidates ever since. In 2008, they were about a quarter of the electorate.

* ID laws: Most polls show that large majorities of Americans support voter identification requirements. While Pennsylvania’s voter ID law won’t be enforced in this election, 64 percent of Pennsylvanians supported it in a recent Philadelphia Inquirer poll.

The data below come from the exit polls of voters leaving the polls. While the question wording has changed over time,the surveys reveal that large majorities of voters make up their minds before the last month of the campaign. There is noclear pattern in terms of candidate support for those who make up their mind at the very end of the campaign.

Q: When did you decide who to vote for?

Time of vote(percent of electorate)—————————————————Vote for—————————————————2008ObamaMcCain

The polls below show greater strength of support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney than for other candidates goingback to 1992. And the number of potential switchers is low compared to the elections in the early 1990s.

Q: Do you support ______ . . . ? (Question asked of supporters of each candidate.)

————————————Support strongly————————————RomneyObama

31%201232%

McCainObama

21200835

BushKerry

32200428

BushGore

25200022

DoleClinton

17199625

Bush, Sr.Clinton

20199226

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.

Q: Do you think there is a . . . ?

Non-Romney supporters who sayNon-Obama supporters who saythere is a chance they would there is a chance they wouldsupport Romneysupport Obama

8%20125%

McCainObama

720087

BushKerry

520046

BushGore

1020009

DoleClinton

11199610

Bush, Sr.Clinton

11199211

Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.

In the next several pages of this issue, we look at how various groups in the electorate have voted over time. We beginwith men and women. Starting in 1980, a political gender gap emerged, and in each election since then, more womenthan men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men. In 2008, they were 53 percent of all voters.Since 1984, married voters have been more Republican than voters who are not married. The category “not married,”which includes voters who are single, widowed, or divorced, has been more Democratic.