Monday, November 22, 2010

NC support special session on redistricting

Democrats, Republicans, and independents in North Carolina don't all agree on much these days but there is one thing: they all think the state would be better served by an independent commission in charge of redistricting than continuing to have the Legislature draw up the lines.

49% of voters in the state think an independent commission is the way to go compared to only 21% who want legislators to continue doing it. 30% express no opinion one way or the other. The desire to reduce the influence of politics in redistricting is held by Democrats by a 47/24 margin and by Republicans by a 41/20 margin. The most overwhelming support for such a measure comes from independents, who favor it 69/15.

Phil Berger has historically supported an independent commission but now says there won't be time to create one in 2011 when Republicans will take control of the legislature. A plurality of voters in the state support a solution to Berger's concern about timing- having a special session of the legislature before the end of this year to create the commission and get the process rolling. 40% of voters in the state say they'd support calling the legislators back to deal with the issue to only 27% who are opposed and 33% who don't offer an opinion one way or the other. Democrats (44/24) and independents (46/29) are both pretty strongly in support of that action while Republicans divide evenly (31/31) on it.

North Carolinians want an independent redistricting commission and they're open to taking some unusual steps to get one in place before the next round of line drawing- December could be a whole lot more interesting on the political calendar this year than it usually is.

I do like you guys, but the dems have gerrymandered forever in NC, and NOW all of the sudden they want to take the politics out of the process when the GOP will control the lines. Doesn't pass the smell test.

North Carolina Democrats have had over a century to implement non-partisan redistricting, and now they suddenly have seen the light just two weeks after they lost control of the state legislature? Give me a break.

What else has broad support among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans? Being EXEMPTED from the burdens of Obamacare! Even unions that supported Obama and Obamacare want exempt!! Because everything Republicans warned about Obamacare is being revealed to be the truth: it WILL cause you to lose your coverage and be burdened with less choice and higher costs.

Soon, all of America will want to be exempt from Obamacare. And if Democrats are foolish enough to not support Repeal, they will be finished as a national party. Obamacare will be THE DEATH OF THE DEMOCRAT PARTY.

If I am right, there was no discussion about Independent Commission before the elections. Dems loose the majority and independent commission polls are done to set the agenda. This will be a bad move for the republicans to let this opportunity to pass

"if Obama wishes to revive his agenda and have any chance of reelection, his top priority ought to be the repeal of government-controlled health care.

...Presently, Obama is solidifying his persona as an arrogant, out-of-touch president. His explanation for the midterm shellacking is that (1) he didn't do a good enough job communicating the virtues of his policies, (2) the voters acted irrationally, and (3) it was the economy, stupid -- if only he had loaded the country down with another trillion in "stimulus" debt, the jobs would have materialized!

But imagine Obama admitting that he gets it and announcing, in the best interests of the country, that we need to scrap the ill-conceived health care law and start from scratch with actual bipartisanship. No more secrecy and backroom dealing, no more votes on Christmas Eve at midnight, and no more deceit.

Imagine Obama apologizing for his bully and bribery tactics. Mr. Obama might want to specifically apologize for proposing ...to bribe Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) into voting for Obamacare. Of course, he would also need to apologize for buying Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)'s vote... with $300 million in taxpayer dollars.

Imagine Obama apologizing for disregarding his promise of transparency. Or for signing thousands of pages of government control and undetermined bureaucratic powers into law without any lawmaker on record as having read the bill. Obama would have to apologize for his long list of misrepresentations, including the myths that we could keep our doctors and current health care plans; that costs would go down, not up; that abortion would not be funded... Obama might even want to apologize to Rep. Joe Wilson..."

The slim (very slim) chance that Obama has of surviving reelection depends on Obama repudiating his own disastrous policies and ACTUALLY embracing bipartisanship, ACTUALLY acknowledging that Republicans have superior ideas to the disastrous policies of his own dying party and extremist base.

"The bill, if it's offered, should state that it will go into effect in 10 years, so that we can remove the political calculations going into the special session."

Oh, so you mean once the Democrats are back in charge, THEN have an independent commission like the Republicans have always wanted? Haha, that's no less politically calculated.

"Ain't gonna help ya! You Dem gerrymandered the heck out of NC for the last decades, now is payback time, say buy to re-winning NC-2, get ready to lose NC-7 and NC-11."

I actually am not so sure there's going to be much change here. The 12th is by far the most gerrymandered, and if Republicans are going to make that more centrally located, it's going to have a huge adjustment on the rest of the districts it borders, making them more Democratic, and most of those districts are held by Republicans. I could see the 11th becoming more Republican if you move Buncombe into the 10th, but would that then endanger McHenry if the 10th becomes more Democratic and the 11th more Republican? Similarly, how do you put pressure on McIntyre? If you move his district north out of Wilmington and New Bern up into Jones' district, then Jones would have to take up more of what is now Butterfield's district, and that's more Democratic. At the same time then, either the 2nd or 8th would have to encompass more of the Fayetteville area, and that would guarantee either Kissell becomes safe for life or Etheridge wins his seat back in a walk.

Christian Liberty: You're as hilarious as you are desperately and ridiculously off-topic. To live a day in your fantasy world....

Thank you for that comment, Dustin! I'm tired of seeing people, including supposed experts, immediately jump on the assumption that you can draw a huge GOP gerrymander of districts. They don't look at the numbers and the map. Its nearly impossible to hurt Shuler unless you some how divide Asheville AND make it a very ugly district. And, by making the 2nd more GOP, the African-Americans in Raleigh and Fayetteville have to go somewhere; Raleigh is simple - give 'em to Miller. But Fayetteville? They have to go to either Kissell or McIntyre unless you draw Coble into Cumberland somehow, which could then endanger him! So in reality, I don't think we'll see much change.

Moving Bucombe to the 10th won't endanger McHenry. His district will still be something like R+12, which is way more than enough to be safe unless he's caught with $90K in his freezer. That makes NC-11 R+12, which is enough to boot Shuler.

Also remember McIntyre is from Lumberton, which is quite close to Kissell's home in Briscoe and in the most D part of the 7th - his district and the 8th can be combined into a D+5, black plurality seat around Fayetteville. The winner will be safe, but that will also create a new R+10ish seat northeast of Charlotte.

As for Brad Miller, moving Greensboro and Winston-Salem to the 1st, (as the 12th collapses into a compact Charlotte District) and the most D Raleigh precincts to the 4th will free up a new seat in the east-central part of the state (coming from parts of 1, 2, and 3) that's around R+8.

"Oh, so you mean once the Democrats are back in charge, THEN have an independent commission like the Republicans have always wanted? Haha, that's no less politically calculated."

What, why do you think, that I think, the Democrats will be in charge in 10 years? I have no idea what the NC legislature will look like then. Politics ebbs and flows, and it's fruitless to try to make predictions like that, much less base laws on those predictions.

I'm saying the best time to fundamentally change the way people do things is when the political consequences of those actions are unknown. Otherwise the process and debate are distorted for political ends.

So sure, pass the law now, but don't let it go into effect until President Romney is finishing his second term, and President Robo-Bush-5000 is about to take over.

"So sure, pass the law now, but don't let it go into effect until President Romney is finishing his second term, and President Robo-Bush-5000 is about to take over."

If you're banking on a President Romney or anyone other than a President Obama until 2017, I've got a nice real estate deal for you.

I actually think the Democrats could retake one or both houses of the NC legislature as soon as 2012. Dem candidates did, on average, about 25 points on the margin worse than in 2008, partially because of the enthusiasm gap and partially because of more uniform party-line voting instead of the split tickets NC has usually been known for.

Using Dave's redistricting App I drew 10 R+6 or better districts, 2 majority Black, and 1 Democratic district. That's no guarantee, but if I can draw 10 R+6 then I'm pretty sure the Republicans in NC can draw at least 8 solid districts.

"If you're banking on a President Romney or anyone other than a President Obama until 2017, I've got a nice real estate deal for you."

I was making a hilarious joke, obvy.

But if you're so certain, you can short sell the GOP to win in 2012 on Intrade, and make about $4.30 per share. That's quite a good bet if you're 100% certain of an Obama victory.

"I actually think the Democrats could retake one or both houses of the NC legislature as soon as 2012."

Yes, but you have no idea how they'll do in 2014, 2016, 2018, or 2020. And the beauty is that neither do I, or anyone else. So to immediately implement a fresh redistricting system in a special session -- only because you've now lost control of the legislature -- is quite problematic. Whereas implementing one that will go into effect at a date on which you can't know whether or not you'll be in power isn't troublesome in the least, and might have bipartisan support. It's basic veil-of-ignorance stuff.

Senators Hamilton Horton (R) and Ellie Kinnaird (D) introduced a bill in 2003 that would have created such a commission. It had bipartisan support but didn't make it out of committee, presumably because the people in power always want more power. Senator Kinnaird has said she'll reintroduce the bill in this session.

"Yes, but you have no idea how they'll do in 2014, 2016, 2018, or 2020."

That's true, but the state is generally trending bluer (true bluer, though there is also less ticket splitting, so that's helping Republicans some in the short term), and Democrats enjoyed a long period of majority in the state thanks to its Dixiecrat roots. Of course, redistricting could more drastically change the legislative picture than the congressional one, so we'll see. But the GOP got really lucky this year, and it's certainly not the start of some new red tide.