Michael Lynch

A warning against going ‘all-in’ on the post-election rally for stocks Critical information for the U.S. trading dayAnother big day for Wall Street has left many scratching their heads as to what the new year will bring. But our call of the day says this market has run up too far too fast, and worries about what lies beyond the so-called Trump rally.

Merrill Lynch brokers must refer 2 customers or face pay cut BofA cross-selling requirement differs from Wells Fargo’s in one crucial wayMerrill Lynch will require its brokers to make at least two client referrals to other parts of parent Bank of America Corp. next year to avoid a cut in pay, a move that comes as Wall Street brokerages try to drum up new business while avoiding the type of aggressive cross-selling tactics that shook Wells Fargo & Co.

Morgan Stanley toughens some broker pay hurdles Some Morgan Stanley brokers will see pay cuts next year unless they boost the fees and commissions they collect, a move that comes as part of the bank's broader efforts to rein in costs. Starting in January, Morgan Stanley will raise some compensation-grid thresholds it uses to pay brokers by about 10% to incentivize them to produce more revenue, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

The 4 most likely outcomes and market reactions out of the OPEC meeting OPEC may reach a ‘weak, unhappy compromise’: analystOPEC members have a lot to discuss as they gather for Wednesday’s much-anticipated meeting, but there are really less than a handful of plausible outcomes.

Trump’s toothless FANG challenge creates an opportunity in high-flying internet stocks Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet have fallen since the election, but investors’ reaction is overdoneFacebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet have fallen since the election, but investors’ reaction is overdone, says Michael Brush.

Fund managers see global inflation, fear ‘protectionism’ after Trump victoryGlobal inflation expectations are the highest in 12 years following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly fund manager survey. But fears of protectionism and stagflation are also on the rise.

This ballot measure could upend the $10 billion porn industry California is about to vote on a proposition to require condoms in adult films California is about to vote on a proposition to require condoms in adult films. Opponents say it would be bad for performers and the industry itself.

Here’s the date when index funds will become bigger than active funds BAML also says peso has largely priced in Trump winActively managed funds seem “radioactive” in terms of their ability to repel investors, says the weekly “Flow Show” note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment strategists, who also weigh in on a key election gauge.

Stock market falls for 8th straight session Facebook shares drop nearly 6%, weighing on main indexes U.S. stocks shed earlier gains to close near session lows Thursday, as the S&P 500 extended its losing streak to the longest in eight years while investors grapple with mixed economic data and earnings, as well as growing uncertainty about the tightening presidential race.

UBS's U.S. brokerage posts record profitUBS Group AG's U.S. wealth-management unit posted a record third-quarter pretax profit, indicating that the Swiss bank's restructuring of the brokerage over the summer is paying off. UBS said the unit, UBS Wealth Management Americas, had $328 million in third-quarter pretax profit, up 22% from the year-earlier period.

Bank of England, economists likely got it wrong about U.K.’s post-Brexit growth outlook Britain largely expected to shake off Brexit jitters in Q3After the Brexit vote, economists and key financial institutions—including the Bank of England—issued stark warnings on growth in Britain, significantly downgrading their Q3 GDP forecasts. But they may be proven wrong on Thursday.

Is it finally time for the inflation trade? After false starts, it could be the start of a major shiftInvestors are starting to behave like inflation is ready for a comeback. It could be the start of a big shift.

Wall Street marks biggest rush to cash since Brexit, 9/11 Flight to cash may be a contrarian bullish signal, says BAMLAccording to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s most recent monthly survey of fund managers, the level of investors rushing to cash hit 5.8% in October, up from 5.5% in the prior month, as investors grow more bearish on stocks.

Bank of America tells stock investors to get ‘real’ as inflation makes its comeback ‘Buy humiliation and sell hubris,’ says Michael HartnettInflation is making a comeback and it’s time investors start thinking about hedging against higher prices and monetary policy tightening, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist who eloquently recommended “buy humiliation, sell hubris.”

LPL faces challenges as it mulls alternativesLPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s decision to explore a possible sale underscores how brokerages that rely heavily on commissions are struggling with how to comply with and make a profit under new rules governing retirement savers.

Merrill Lynch to end commission-based options for retirement savers Fee-based system to adhere to fiduciary ruleRetirement savers who work with Merrill Lynch will no longer be able to pay their broker a commission, the latest example of how new rules on retirement accounts are roiling the wealth-management industry.

Stock sale by Wells Fargo’s Stumpf called suspicious: hearing live blogThe House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on Wells Fargo's unauthorized opening of millions of customer accounts, with embattled Chairman and CEO John Stumpf testifying. MarketWatch live-blogged the proceedings.

Investors fear ‘bond shock’ as overvaluation jumps to all-time high But high cash levels signal good time to buy stocksInvestors continued to hoard cash and shun bond and equities in September due to concerns over an overheated debt market and too high stock prices, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s survey of fund managers

The NFL’s 2016 kickoff comes at a steep price for fans You won’t be able to get tickets at face value — no, you’ll be paying up to $849 for a seatYou won’t be able to get tickets at face value — no, you’ll be paying up to $849 for a seat, says Jason Notte.

Oil market cheers EIA changes to weekly statistics The improvement will offer a ‘better look at the real fundamental situation’: analystThe Energy Information Administration has made some changes to the way it reports figures on weekly U.S. oil production, exports and petroleum demand, and analysts say the moves mark a significant improvement to the data the market heavily relies on.

Volatile September may have investors pining for dog days of August Low volatility often precedes correctionsThe S&P 500 is stuck in its narrowest range in nearly half a century and trading volume is plumbing multi-month lows. But by September, investors may be pining for the dog days of summer with data suggesting that next month is historically the worst month for stocks. .

Buy these stocks and pity the fools fighting the Fed Critical information before the market opensIt’s finally Janet Yellen day. If you’ve been getting in a tizzy about scarily quiet markets, she just might put you out of your misery later this Friday.

After Mylan uproar, a generic EpiPen could hit the market in 2017 Analyst expects FDA to speed up approval of generic made by TevaMylan’s EpiPen monopoly could end in 2017 as the Food and Drug Administration may speed up approval of a generic competitor.

CBOE Holdings' stock drops after bearish call at BofA Merrill LynchShares of CBOE Holdings Inc. slumped 1.7% in midday trade Thursday, after Bank of America Merrill Lynch turned bearish on the options trading exchange, citing weaker volume trends, increasing competition and a what is believed to be peak valuation. Analyst Michael Carrier cut his rating to underperform, after being at neutral since February 2015. He cut his stock price target to $65, which is more than 3% below current levels, from $69. Carrier said CBOE faces "intense competition" in the multi-listed options market, with 14 exchanges competing for share. From 2008 through 2015, he said CBOE's revenue fell 66%, market share has declined 19% and pricing has dropped 48%. He wrote in a research note this trend could worsen, as he said he thinks "it will be tougher to offset as skillfully as the team as done over the past few years." Instead of CBOE, Carrier recommends Intercontinental Exchange Inc. , which he rates a buy; the stock is up 0.5% Thursday. CBOE's stock has tacked on 3.4% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 7%.

What will stocks do if Clinton or Trump boost infrastructure spending S&P 500 historically outperforms either side of spending ‘spike’: JefferiesBoth Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are talking about big boosts to infrastructure spending. Analysts say that could be good news for stocks.

More cheer for the bulls as tech stocks, financials take the baton Defensive stocks were leading the market rally, but not now, analysts sayOne worry about the U.S. stock market has been that its stars have been defensive sectors. That concern now may be fading, as analysts cheer the recent strength shown by tech, financials and other “cyclical” stocks.

Bank stocks may be this rally’s canary in the coal mine Relative value of commodities, real estate at historic low For investors seeking clues on when this stock-market’s hot streak will come to an end, bank stocks will be the proverbial canary in the coal mine this time around, according to a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Earnings season kicks off: Here’s 5 things you need to know Analysts agree that the first quarter marked an earnings trough but areas of weakness remainInvestors can brace for some weak numbers, some familiar pain points and a few new areas of concern.

Celebrate what? The trillions spent by central banks has been a dud, says Bank of America Hiring could be stronger, and so could savings to supplement income Despite trillions collectively spent by central banks to breathe life into their economies since the 2008 financial crisis, they’re effectively shooting blanks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bomb materials, guns, ammo found in Dallas shooter’s home Army veteran is described as a loner looking to avenge killings of black men by white officers.As this city mourned five police officers killed in a deadly rampage, officials said the gunman had stockpiled weapons in his home.

Going for gold: Money floods into precious metals like never before Brexit and dovish Fed boost gold, silver pricesWith Brexit-related turmoil and expectations delayed for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, investors’ appetite for gold has hit an all-time high, according to the latest flow report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Investors fearing ‘summer shocks’ are hoarding the most cash since 2001 Appetite for quality assets is pushing bond yields to record lowsThe last time fund managers hoarded this much cash, the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees 4 to 3 to win the World Series.

Charting the lowest interest rates in 5,000 years, worst commodity returns in 80 years Global growth not stacking upBank of America Merrill Lynch does a deep dive to come up with some dazzling charts, such as the lowest interest rates since the time of the first Pharaohs of Egypt, and commodities that are returning the least to investors since 1933.

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