Franklin
Morales and Julio Teheran will face off on Sunday evening when the
Rockies and Braves wrap up their weekend set. Morales draws a tough
assignment against the Braves, who have the highest wRC+ and are
tied with the Rockies for the top OPS against left-handed pitching.
Braves right-handed bats have a wRC+ of 143 against southpaws on
the season, which is tops in the league. Morales has a history of
struggling with righties. Righties are slugging .503 off of Morales
this season to improve on the career slugging percentage of
.446.

Julio Teheran
is due for some regression and it should come very soon. Following
a shutout in his last start, Teheran lowered his ERA to 1.92, but a
3.85 FIP, a 3.96 xFIP, and a 3.87 SIERA suggest a correction in
Teheran's ERA very soon. He's striking out fewer batters than last
season and living on the batted ball luck of a .193 batting average
against and a .214 BABIP against. His career averages in those two
categories are .231 and .268, respectively. So he has performed
better than average, but to be this much better than average is not
likely to be sustainable. Along with a drop in strikeouts, Teheran
is stranding 86.5 percent of baserunners. Unless the strikeouts
come back, expect a normalization in that number.

Even though
it's a getaway day for the Rockies, expect some runs to be scored
in this game with a bad matchup for Morales and regression for
Teheran.

PLAY:
COL/ATL OVER

After
our only game yesterday was taken off the board with a pitching
change. We return on Sunday looking to extend our Game of the Week
run. Now 19-9 on GOW Selections and Sunday we are releasing our
Baseball Game of the Week in afternoon action. Don't miss
it!