>> Saturday, May 10, 2008

Big severe weather outbreak will unfold this evening from portions of the southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Deep South.

Around here, we might see a couple of shower or storms late tonight, but the big show will be tomorrow.

Some of the latest modeling has come in with a more significant severe weather potential for North Carolina than some of the previous runs. It will all depends on how the drier airmass (which is punching into the state now) interacts and moves as the area of rain and storms moves in tomorrow morning.

At this point, I expect a round of rain and storms to sweep through tomorrow morning. Some of those storms could be severe. We might catch a break around early afternoon before another potential round of showers and storms moves in later in the day.

I do think we have the potential for some severe weather. How great that potential is will depend on how several small scale feature set up tomorrow morning.

In short....keep those NOAA weather radios handy and active tomorrow...and we will be staffed and keeping you up to speed as need be on News 14 Carolina.

Whew....dragging a bit this morning. Got in bed at 4am Friday morning and 2am this morning. Up and going this morning....gotta head to coach my two oldest daughters' t-ball game at 9am.

A quick note...while I haven't looked at all of the parameters yet, there could be a big outbreak of severe weather over the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Deep South this afternoon and tonight.

The big question is will we have severe weather here tomorrow. Most modeling is insisting that we will have a in-situ wedge in place as the precip moves in tomorrow morning. If that is the case, severe weather will be limited. But will this occur? That is the question I will try to resolve when I get in to work this afternoon...

>> Friday, May 09, 2008

Severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for much of the Piedmont this evening...some active storms near the mountains are the main reason for this watch issuance. Other isolated storms have developed at times through the Piedmont.

Thursday evening into tonight turned out to be very, very active for the Triad viewing area. Many, many thanks to Jeff Crum for feeding me lots of good information (as well as water and cookies!). Also, Ryan Sloane, as well as all of the guys involved with production in Raleigh and Greensboro, did a fantastic job gathering information and keeping the ship running smoothly. That makes my job a piece of cake.

Numerous reports of damage have come in, and it sounds like the Advance and Clemmons communities were especially hard hit. Lots and lots of power outages occurred...in fact, over 20,000 at one point just in Forsyth County.

>> Thursday, May 08, 2008

A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the Piedmont. Thunderstorms are beginning to fire and increase in coverage as the low level jet pushes into our area. Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest information, and if you are away from you TV, keep a NOAA weather radio nearby to hear the latest weather watches and warnings.

So far, we have not seen any showers or storms develop in the Piedmont. Meanwhile, numerous tornado warnings continue back in north and central Alabama.

Interestingly, due to lots of sunshine, dewpoints back in northern Georgia have dropped into the 50s while much of North Carolina is still seeing dewpoints in the 60s. So, the showers and storms could briefly weaken as they move from Alabama into Georgia.

Around here, I think we should see some scattered showers and storms develop over the next several hours, and our atmosphere is now primed and appears somewhat supportive of a severe weather threat. All we are lacking now is a triggering mechanism to get the storms going. So, we are still waiting and watching to see if indeed these storms do develop this evening.

Overnight, I still expect a line of showers and storms to roll through, and those storms could be severe.

So, to recap....severe weather remains a possibility any time from about 5pm through the overnight hours. However, this is still a tough nut to crack due to the specific set of variables we have in play. Stay tuned...

The overall setup still looks favorable for a severe weather threat this afternoon and tonight. Now, one caveat to this....for a significant severe weather threat, we probably will have to see a bit of sunshine, and temperatures will have to warm up to at least the upper 70s to lower 80s. At this point, I expect that will likely happen.

I expect scattered showers and storms to fire this afternoon, and any of those storms could be strong to severe. Initially this afternoon, the wind fields aloft will not be overly strong. However, they will strengthen with time as we head into evening.

Based on the parameters expected to be in place, all modes of severe weather look possible. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all appear possible this afternoon and tonight.

I expect scattered showers and storms this afternoon into early evening, and eventually later tonight a line of showers and storms will probably move through.

Keep in mind, this is dependent on enough instability getting in place to support severe weather. That will be something to keep an eye on this afternoon.

The 6z NAM takes the CAPE values in Charlotte to near 2000 j/kg this afternoon. That is probably overdone, but here are some values for Charlotte off of the 6z NAM valid at 8pm this evening.

>> Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Some impressive parameters are being forecast by modeling to be in place around here tomorrow afternoon and early evening. For those of you that are meteorologically inclined, here are some values for Charlotte based off of the 6z NAM valid at 4pm tomorrow afternoon:

Those are some pretty impressive numbers. Looking at things, the only real component that is a bit lacking is the speed of the winds up in the atmosphere. There will be fairly strong, but not as much as in some classic severe weather outbreaks.

So, I expect scattered showers and storms to develop tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Some of the storms will probably become severe, and all modes of severe weather look possible...possibly tornadoes, wind, and hail. Then, a strong line of storms will probably move through overnight tomorrow night, and again, some storms could be severe.

So, severe weather is not at all a given, but I do think it is a strong possibility. If we see any sunshine tomorrow morning, then that will increase the chances for severe weather. As is always the case, the severe weather threat will depend on various small scale feature that will not be apparent until tomorrow. So we will continue to watch and evaluate.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the latest information. And, I will update the blog with my thoughts as I can and as it necessary.

I will also quickly point out that is still looks rather active for Mother's Day, but we will dive into that one after this first system passes.

>> Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Above is a new edition of my weather video.

There are a couple of events on the horizon in our weather that bear close watching. First of all, as I am seeing things this morning, the synoptic scale setup looks pretty favorable for a chance of severe weather around here late Thursday and especially Thursday night. A weakening 500mb trough will swing just to our north as an area of low pressure approaches from the Tennessee Valley. Severe weather will be a possibility over parts of the Deep South Thursday and then spread into the Carolinas Thursday night. That will be one to keep an eye on.

Secondly, another strong system looks to drop through here Sunday. The details are a bit more skecthy with that one, but overall, I do think Sunday bears watching for severe weather chances as well.

As for today, fantastic weather....get out and enjoy. And, get out and vote!

>> Monday, May 05, 2008

The ingredients are there for some shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon...especially east of I-77. The storms will likely be widely scattered, but the ones that do develop could pack a punch with some gusty winds and large hail. Some vivid lightning would also be possible.