Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Would Airbus really quit the UK?

If there is a way to miss a point, Kippers will miss it. According to Kippers, Channel 4's programme
last night was "inaccurate scaremongering propaganda". Of course Ukip
is entitled to complain because Ukip has never ever released campaign
posters implying 27m people are after my job. But what has stuck in the
craw for them is the suggestion that Airbus would shut up shop in the
even of a Ukip government.

It is a little far fetched to suggest Airbus would close its doors
overnight, but its also a lot far-fetched that Ukip would form a
government, so we are talking about a rather large abstract here -
another point lost on Kippers, but is it conceivable Airbus would quit
the UK in the event of a Ukip government? Youbetcha!

Airbus would need to exit the UK in such a hurry if it were
to lose access to the single market. It trades in Euros and it exports
to mainland Europe. It depends on a stable trading environment within
the single market and simply could not function as well without free
movement of people. Engineers travel to and from Toulouse at short
notice on a daily basis.

Moreover, it is not conceivable that a split from the EU would be a
cordial or cooperative effort under Farage. Farage is openly hostile to
the EU, combative and confrontational in every way, as evidence by his
conduct toward EU officials, his fellow MEPs and commissioners. Would
this man be able to secure Brexit without creating animosity and putting
up barriers? Unlikely - and his negotiating position would consequently
be weak from the outset - having already lobbed personal abuse at
senior EU figures. This would make life difficult for Airbus - lot least
because it could be used as a political weapon by the EU.

This is not to say that Brexit would necessarily cause Airbus to
quit the UK - just that it is more than likely if we had a Ukip
government. A planned, cordial and orderly Brexit, retaining Efta/EEA
single market access gives no
company any need to quit the UK - but Ukip have categorically ruled out
an Efta
Brexit solution - and that is as far as their Brexit "policy" goes.
Based on the current Ukip approach to Brexit, I would be advising any
exporter to quit the UK ASAP were there any danger of them winning.
Especially since they rely heavily on skilled immigration from outside
the EU which a Ukip
government would put a quota on.

As it happens, Airbus of all companies are the one
multi-national company who last year stated
they would stay in
the UK post-Brexit. But that's in the
event of a credible and sane party taking us out of the EU. Were it Ukip
in power,
I suspect even Airbus would re-evaluate their commitment to the UK. But
it seems Airbus is now less certain. Here we have "Airbus boss" Robin
Southwell voicing concerns.

At a company event today Tues, Mr Southwell said: “Airbus Group, we
note, would never have achieved its success to date without a working
and effective partnership of countries and companies within Europe,
which only collectively can deliver the scale required to be globally
successful.

“Any other economic model which seeks or offers to change
the dynamic and advantageous characteristics which we presently enjoy -
and believe are optimal to our delivering sustained growth and
employment - would need to specifically address this quite proper
challenge in a detailed and compelling manner.”

That is something Ukip and Farage have not yet done and maintains the
line that it does not need to. It stands naked without a Brexit policy,
thus invites such speculation from Channel 4.

Elsewhere in the Brexit debate, more serious contenders than Ukip, who have
examined Brexit roadmaps acknowledge the need for either a free
trade agreement with the EU or EEA+Efta membership. The most prominent Brexit plan, Flexcit by EUreferendum.com,
advocates the latter, which sees the UK remain a part of the single
market - which then has precisely zero material affect on Airbus. Meanwhile the regulations that affect aircraft production are in fact global regulations which we are still obliged to
comply with in or out of the EU. Such subtleties are beyond Ukip.

In conclusion, it is certainly no foregone conclusion that Airbus would
quit the UK or would necessarily need to, unless somehow Britain were
ruled by a bunch of anti-intellectual wreckers who were openly hostile
to the very idea of the EU - who thought ripping up treaties on the fly
was a way to conduct the serious business of government. That would
be Ukip, thus I see a great deal of plausibility in the Channel 4
scenario, especially with
their current set of mouth-breathing halfwits at the helm. There is a
strong and serious case for leaving the EU, but Ukip isn't making it,
and for those of us who are eurosceptic, Ukip is seriously screwing the
pooch.