Hurricane PAUL

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...PAUL ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD RING
SURROUNDING THE CENTER HAS WARMED...AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
UNANIMOUSLY T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE FINAL-T NUMBERS
FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE FALLEN TO T5.3. BASED ON THESE
NUMBERS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.
PAUL HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/15
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING PAUL TO MOVE FASTER
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...LEAVING PAUL IN A COL REGION
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 24
AND 48 HOURS...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW PAUL MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HWRF IS THE
OUTLIER AMONG THE PACK BY SHOWING PAUL MOVING INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INSTEAD OF SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS BUT IS NOT AS FAR EAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE HWRF.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PAUL OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS UP UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOUT 30 KT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON THE
HURRICANE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT INTENSITY PAUL WILL
HAVE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT ENOUGH OF THE
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SUGGEST THAT PAUL COULD
STILL BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS
PAUL MAKING LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE BUT THEN SHOWS RAPID
WEAKENING ON DAYS 2 AND 3. PAUL SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...BY 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 20.0N 113.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
NNNN