Tag: Polls (vote intentions)

Results of a new national poll administered by Economist were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Economist poll results

49

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 4 and November 7. The sample size was 3669 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On November 1 Clinton obtained only 51.6% in the Economist poll and Trump obtained 48.4%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Economist poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Siena poll results

51

Clinton

30

Trump

The results show that 51.0% of participants will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results

42

Clinton

45

Trump

The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 29 to November 2. A total of 516 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. For comparison: 55.8% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on October 25, for Trump this number was only 44.2%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. Compared to his numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Trump's poll average is 5.3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 44.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote is 7.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results

48

Clinton

35

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from April 25 to April 27 with 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. On October 22 Clinton obtained only 54.7% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained 45.4%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll results

63

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who responded, 63.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from March 30 to April 3.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 70.0% for Clinton and 30.0% for Trump. In the latest Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll on April 3 Clinton obtained only 69.2%, while Trump obtained 30.8%.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.6 points below her polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

JMC Analytics poll results

35

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. On May 6 Clinton received only 40.9% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump received 59.1%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Results of a new poll carried out by Fort Hays St. University were released. The poll asked respondents from Kansas for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Fort Hays St. University poll results

34

Clinton

58

Trump

Of those who responded, 34.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 58.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3 among 313 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump. On July 21 Clinton received 38.0% in the Fort Hays St. University poll and Trump received only 62.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Kansas. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

PPIC published the results of a new poll on November 7. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPIC poll results

54

Clinton

28

Trump

According to the results, 54.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 23 among 1024 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton is currently at 63.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

On October 25, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results

47

Clinton

39

Trump

According to the results, 47.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 20 and October 22. The sample size was 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump. In the latest Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll on September 14 Clinton received only 53.7%, while Trump received 46.3%.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

On November 7, Western NE UniversityWestern NE University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll results

56

Clinton

26

Trump

Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 23 to November 2 with 417 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-5.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 68.3% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 67.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Western NE UniversityWestern NE University poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.