A very special election
By Bruce Walker
web posted May 13, 2002
The recent victory of President Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan is
good news for America and Israel. His landslide means that
arguments about the "Muslim street" being hopelessly anti-
American are not entirely true. Doubtless this election was
imperfect in form and sullied by some irregularities, but only a
few fanatics believe that it was not fundamentally fair.
The landslide victory of Jacques Chirac in France was also a
victory for America and Israel. He is the least anti-American
French President in the Fifth Republic, and his hand is much
stronger today than it has been in his first presidential term. While
this will not mean another Statute of Liberty from France anytime
soon, it does mean that we can reasonably expect the same level
of support as in the past from Paris.
Most Democrats now concede that not only will they not
recapture the House of Representatives and may lose the
Senate, but that Republicans may actually make modest gains in
House races because of redistricting and the very resilient and
deep popularity of President Bush. Considering that Republicans
like Rudy Giuliani will also be stumping for Republican
candidates and considering the unpopularity of virtually all major
Democrats, a modest Republican victory in November 2002
looks possible, and even probable. That would, of course, give
President Bush a great deal more freedom of action in dealing
with terrorism and terrorist nations.
As helpful as elections in France and Pakistan have been and as
beneficial a Republican victory in the mid-term election would
be, there is another election which would provide a powerful
weapon in our war against terrorism: early Knesset elections.
Unlike other parliamentary democracies the Israeli parliamentary
elections are set on a date certain by law - the next election will
be in November 2003 - and not by the call of the Prime Minister
or President. This law could be amended, however, to provide
for elections a year earlier.
Ariel Sharon might even want to restore the process of direct
election of the Israeli Prime Minister, which was enacted by the
Knesset in 1996. The Knesset repealed this novel method of
choosing the chief of government in a parliamentary democracy
in 2001, and under current Israeli law the Knesset will choose
the Prime Minister after the November 2003 elections.
Why might Sharon want to do this? Because right now those
political forces in Israel which supported him and Netanyahu
before him would win a monumental landslide. This would send a
powerful signal to the Arab world that Sharon can deal with
them without any reference to internal Israeli politics (which are
notoriously feisty and contentious).
What would be the consequences of these electoral victories? It
would provide the Arab world with a glimpse of the adamant
mood of the Israeli people. It would highlight several important
and ignored facts, like the right of non-Jewish Arabs to vote in
free elections (unlike Arabs in most of the world) and the
vigorous nature of Israeli politics, which reflect a very strong
personal interest by Israeli citizens in their government.
Sharon could point out that Arab leaders claim to speak for
hundreds of millions of people, but that they actually speak only
for hundreds of army officers, Baathist party bureaucrats, jaded
monarchs, and self-appointed religious leaders. He, by contrast,
speaks for millions of free citizens.
Sharon might even make a special pitch in the election for the
non-Jewish vote in Israel, and perhaps insure that his political
commercials to this constituency find its way into the television
sets and radio broadcasts of some neighboring Arab
undemocratic nations. These Israeli citizens have hardly been his
base support, but the very effort to reach them would have an
important propaganda effect.
Such a Sharon landslide could also be a powerful political bonus
for President Bush. It would reflect an intensely unified Jewish
people in Israel, which would send powerful ripples within the
Jewish citizens of America. The reappearance of casual anti-
Semitism in Europe is rightly considered a very serious matter by
Jews throughout the world. Political triumphant in the historical
homeland of Jews would provide the perfect vehicle in which to
articulate this concern.
The political impact in America could be vastly enhanced if
Sharon (or perhaps the brilliant and articulate Netanyahu)
directly "campaigned" in America for Jewish support with
traditional political ads and speeches. Under the Law of the
Return, these Jews all are eligible for dual citizenship, so although
this would seem odd, it would not be unethical or illegal.
Jews are probably the least monolithic people on Earth - many
of the sharpest critics of liberalism have been conservative Jews
and many of the most passionate and articulate supporters of
conservative causes have been Jewish - but liberal Democrat
Jews provide a vital component of Democrat votes, campaign
funds, and rhetorical arguments.
Substantial defection of this support to President Bush and the
Republican Party could make Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
unwinnable for Democrats in 2004 and could make New York,
California, Illinois, New Jersey and Michigan very much in play.
The recent careful redrawing of congressional districts to protect
incumbents also presumes that liberal Democrat Jewish voters
will continue to vote for Democrat candidates. If this group of
voters simply split 50/50, it would make dozens of "safe"
Democrat districts in large states suddenly toss-ups or even
leaning Republican.
The greatest and most immediate impact, however, might be felt
in the United States Senate. Ten United States Senators are
Jewish. Nine of these ten are liberal Democrats from reliably
Democrat states. If these nine Senators begin to actively support
President Bush, then Tom Daschle's half-vote majority vanishes.
Might they? While it is hard to imagine Barbara Boxer or Chuck
Schumer suddenly joining hands with a conservative Republican,
but it would have been hard to imagine the horrific terrorist
attacks on America and Israel during the last eight months, or the
indifferent rise of that most ancient social pathology, anti-
Semitism. We - America and Israel - are at war with the same
dark forces that inspired Stalin and Hitler. Someday Senator
Boxer and Senator Schumer will understand that. The sooner
they do, the sooner the good guys (which would be us) will win.
Bruce Walker (feb6@enterstageright.com) is a senior writer with
Enter Stage Right. He is also a frequent contributor to The
Pragmatist and The Common Conservative.
Enter Stage Right - http://www.enterstageright.com