Oddly enough this England team has been doing a lot of things right all winter. They are fiendishly fit; they train with a messianic intensity; they have been brilliant in the field most of the time, which made Monty Panesar's aberrations – if that is what they were – all the more galling; they have been highly disciplined with the ball – excepting Stuart Broad's no-balls in Galle. And yet they have lost all four Tests.

They could have won three of the four. They bowled out Pakistan for 99 in the first Test in Dubai; they had a first-innings lead of 70 in the second in Abu Dhabi. In Galle last week Sri Lanka were on the ropes at 15 for three on the first morning. Once this team was expert at seizing the moment. Not this winter.

So there is unrest from the top downwards. The chairman of the England and Wales Cricket Board, Giles Clarke, has ensured that the England team is the best resourced in the world. He gives the management whatever they want. Thus he becomes impatient when the team keep losing. Everyone from Hugh Morris, the management team, the players and most obviously the captain, feel the strain.

For the first time since he took on the job it is being questioned whether Andrew Strauss should continue much longer. Why else would Graham Gooch be wheeled out on Friday to deliver a paean of praise to a man who has undoubtedly been one of England's best?

Only three men have captained England more often than Strauss: Mike Atherton, Michael Vaughan and Nasser Hussain; only one has led England to victory more often (Vaughan 26 times as opposed to Strauss's 21). All three of Strauss's predecessors went of their own accord. Vaughan and Hussain departed with spectacular speed in the middle of a home series against South Africa – and there is one of those coming up this summer; Atherton, by his own admission, stayed too long.

There are three critical elements to consider. If England keep losing and Strauss's contributions remain meagre he is in trouble. Those factors are simple to judge; it is a question of numbers. It is trickier to judge Strauss's own hunger to keep going. Ostensibly it is as strong as ever, but we remember how Hussain and Vaughan woke up one morning and decided that was it. The impression is that Strauss makes his decisions by more by calculation than emotion.

If Strauss seeks longevity and – who knows? – one more series against Australia, he is not helped by the fact that there appears to be a ready‑made heir in Alastair Cook, in no hurry but there. He is helped by the apparent lack of alternatives to open the batting unless Jonathan Trott is promoted despite being such a pivotal player at No3 in recent times.

We are certain that Strauss will register a 44th match as England captain on Tuesday and it would be surprising if he was not in charge for the series against the West Indies as the coach, Andy Flower, knows no other England captain and their mutual admiration is deep. Flower may be ruthless; he is also loyal. A Strauss century and an England victory in Colombo this week would dampen the speculation. Meanwhile the management face some other tricky decisions before that match starts. The team has to change because Broad has a calf injury, which may actually bring the ECB some quiet consolation. Once again Broad's Indian Premier League career is likely to be put on hold.

Expect a result. Of the last 10 matches played at the P Sara Stadium that has been the case in nine of them. It is the smallest of the grounds in Colombo and the venue for the first ever Test played by Sri Lanka against England in 1982. Mahela Jayawardene suggested that its properties would not be so different from Galle.

Steven Finn is the likeliest replacement for Broad. As a bowler he has similar attributes; he has been in good form in one-day cricket and, perhaps most significantly, he was put up by England to address the Sunday sages.

Will the failing batsmen all survive? As usual the answer is almost certainly yes. Infuriatingly, there are reasons to keep the first five in the side one more time. Curiously, Samit Patel batted at seven in the last match, which indicates that he has been given all-rounder status. In truth he is a batsman who bowls. There will be much debate over his spot.

Ravi Bopara could, finally, be given a game, or Tim Bresnan. There is just a possibility that Panesar, out of sorts in Galle, will be omitted. In which case Patel would probably survive and play alongside Bresnan. The Yorkshireman has been victorious in all the 10 Tests he has played and an exasperated, but hitherto highly analytical, England set-up may be ready to trust in a bit of superstition.

For Sri Lanka Chanaka Welegedara has been ruled out with a groin injury and will probably be replaced by Dhammika Prasad.