So…Would You? (Part I)

It’s March 27th, three days before the official end of Spring Training, and after a turbulent offseason, the atmosphere around Steinbrenner Field has been mercifully uneventful – even a shade optimistic. Save for some minor scrapes and bruises, everyone on the 25-man has, at some point over the past four weeks, uttered a version of being in the best shape of his life to a herd of restive beat writers. Only this time, it’s not merely a cliché: Alex is healthy and spry; Jeter, who gives his best blue steel on the cover of S.I.’s new Baseball Preview alongside the headline “Something to Prove,” has streamlined his swing; Gardner’s wrist is pain-free and is proving to be a non-issue at bat and in the field.

There are other encouraging signs. Robbie Cano is emerging as a polished, poised, vocal leader; and Rafael Soriano claims he doesn’t care about amassing saves or basking in adulation because what he’s always wanted most was to a.) play for the New York Yankees and b.) win a World Series ring. Even Bartolo Colon appears rejuvenated: Without the benefit of slimming in-season pinstripes, Colon has nevertheless looked svelte and focused in limited appearances, and has even caught on video sharing a post-intra-squad sprint with Mo Rivera. Cleveland will enjoy having him back.

Still, as the Yankees prepare to head north, the back end of the starting rotation remains stubbornly in flux. As unsettled as it was in early February,Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Freddy Garcia have proven to be exactly who we thought they were. Unless a major move happens within the next week, the Yankees will start the 2011 season with their worst rotation since the days when Live Strong bracelets and Sidney Ponson jokes were all the fashion.

Yet Cashman seems to be holding firm to his maddeningly Buddhist mantra of “wait and see.” The market, he says, will “develop” during the season. It’s frustrating from a fan’s perspective but also the most prudent stratagem at the moment. With the Pettitte retirement creating a back-end of the rotation that rivals the Pirates in cumulative WAR and star appeal, competing G.M.’s can smell angst sweat wafting from Tampa. Cash is right: now’s not the time to mortgage the farm for the Brian Moehlers and Miguel Batistas of the world.

But then the text comes:

Cash, it’s Sabean. You need a horse, I need a Cano. Cain for Robbie, straight-up.

What about Freddy Sanchez?

Let me worry about Freddy. He’s a survivor.

And there you’d have it: what we’ve been clamoring for ever since Cliff Lee took his decoys and double-barrels with him to Philly. Finally, a young, polished, durable number two to slot right between C.C. and Hughes for at least the next two seasons.

Just as we had halfway convinced ourselves that there were worse things in this world than a straight-as-a-string 84 MPH Freddie Garcia fastball (there aren’t), just as we were preparing to settle for the likes of Joe Blanton or the loping cadaver of Kevin Millwood, Brian Sabean swoops in to rescue us from The Summer of Meat. But like any trade that benefits both teams, it will burn like acid. The Yankees would be acquiring the 26-year-old Cain at the expense of losing arguably their most potent offensive force in the prime of his career.

So here’s the question: If he were granted the autonomy to do so (and there’s no guarantee of that), would Brian Cashman go through with this deal? Moreover, should he? Refusing to close on a Johan Santana trade in the winter of ’08 put into full relief Cashman’s dogma of “not paying twice” for a desired player, regardless of how good he is. But that was before Cliff Lee became available last July, mid-pennant-race – and before the Yankees had a single trade chip that could yield a pitcher of Lee’s caliber.

On the one hand, Matt Cain is a bona fide stopper. Arguably among the top 20 pitchers in the game, he’s the definitive workhorse, averaging 210 IP since his rookie campaign in 2006 and topping out at 223.1 this past season. This is no small feat, considering how rarely young pitchers are given opportunities to pitch through late-inning, high leverage conditions. And yet, Cain doesn’t seem to show any of the telltale signatures of the Verducci effect. In fact, he turned in yet another superb all-around season in 2010, posting a 130 ERA+, 7.3 H/9 and a Halladay-like 1.084 WHIP. Which makes him better than Joe Saunders.

As good as Cain is, he has yet to enter the pantheon of excellence occupied by the game’s truly dominant aces. A close look at Cain’s career stats reveals some minor eyebrow-raisers among his peripherals: above-average fly ball tendencies – always a concern in Yankee Stadium – and a curiously elevated xFIP, that was recently challenged in a fascinating piece over at Paapfly.com.

Still, there are no major warning signals that color Cain’s long-term performance outlook. He’s just not elite, which is fine. Not being a shutdown ace is the one quality that could render him even remotely attainable on the trade market. Trade market untouchables Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Halladay, and Sabathia are all superior to Cain – though not by much. In fact, Cain’s career 126 ERA+ ranks him ninth among all active pitchers, ahead of Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Zack Greinke. Also, it bears repeating: Cain’s still only 26. His most productive years may be yet to come.

In tomorrow’s post, I’ll turn my attention to Robbie Cano and his overall value before attempting to determine whether or not the Yankees would benefit from such a trade. In the meantime, if you were Cashman, would you?

I want nothing to do with trading Cano. The only way in hell I’d even consider giving him up is to get back a King Felix type, and even then there would be a great deal of hesitance.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

To go a step further, I wouldn’t trade Cano for Felix, even if it was straight up. Cano plays everyday and makes a positive impact on both sides of the ball. Not to mention the slop that they Yankees would have to stick at 2B in his absence.

Levi

To be fair, it’s not quite as simple as “one plays every day, one plays every fifth day”. Felix faced over 1000(!) batters last year, and Cain faced just a shade under 900. Usually, batters will end up with ~700 PA in a full season, throw in that they’re playing defense every day and you’ll usually take the elite hitter over the elite pitcher (especially when you throw in injury likelihood).

Long story short: your point is valid, but I think some people overblow the whole “every day vs. 1 in 5 days” argument.

Jimmy P

yes i completely agree i see cano as the core of the younger part of the team hes gonna be the leader 6 years from now!!!i would be livid if they got rid of cano !

Dustin P

Do not woory, that trade will not happen. The longer NYY waits, the more they will have to give up. Cashman really did a bad job assembling the highest payroll in MLB with no starters.

And they should have traded Joba when they had the chance. Joba = Brien Taylor.

Rob G

Dsutin P showing his Redsox colors!! Cashman waiting for another team having needs due to an injury etc.

If you read RAB, you will know Joba has decent stats as SP and RP – sounds like a you problem!!

http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

I don’t know whether I’d do it for Cain or not, but if you believe you have a future starting caliber 2B in the minors and could get a young ace type pitcher for Robbie, you’d have to at least consider it. I don’t think I’d do it for Cain, but I wouldn’t consider Robbie completely untouchable either.

Stan the Man

If Cano isn’t untouchable than who is on the Yankees roster? Cano is the best middle infielder in baseball and also one of the best 5 hitters in the game…that should make him untouchable.

Corey

hes not the best middle infielder in baseball but he’s close, he’s not quite on the same level as a Hanley Ramirez and when Chase Utley is healthy he very well may be better then Robbie. However if I am Cash Robbie is totally untouchable. Also can you really argue that Cano is a better hitter then Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Hamilton, CarGo, Mauer, etc… Hes not top five but your close.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

If Hanley is number one, Cano is number two. Tulo and Utley can battle it out for the third spot. I agree that Cano isn’t top five quite yet, but I can’t put CarGo (as sick as he is) in that class yet either.

http://slidingintohome.blogspot.com Domenic

As much as I love Cano, I think it’d be difficult to argue that he’s a superior player to Tulo.

Offensively, Tulo and Cano were roughly even in 2010. Tulo was better in 2009. Tulo does benefit from Coors, but he has posted an .861 OPS on the road – and he’s also a fine base-runner, whereas Cano shouldn’t ever be given the green light.

Defensively, it’s not even close. Tulo is a fantastic defensive shortstop, whereas Cano is an above-average second baseman.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

I’m giving Cano the slight edge right now because of Tulo’s injury history…it could also just be bias. I think you can make a decent argument for either one of those three as the top middle infielder in the game so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to split hairs.

http://slidingintohome.blogspot.com Domenic

I would probably argue that Tulo is the clear-cut best middle infielder in the game right now. That isn’t a knock on Cano or Ramirez, but it would be difficult to convince me otherwise. If Tulo’s health becomes a yearly issue, I’ll dock him – but he was healthy in 2009, and the injuries have been mostly fluky.

Ted Nelson

Why does there have to be someone untouchable on every roster?

Alex

I think this truly is an interesting question, however – if you were willing to part with Cano I’m not sure I would make this particular deal. It seems that if Cano were to have his untouchable tag removed putting him on the market first would probably be most prudent.

Jeremy

Agreed 100%, in order to consider this particular deal I’d want to know what else Cano could fetch if we dealt him.

Pitching durability is so unreliable, I’m not sure I trade Cano for anyone not named Felix. Cano has star written all over him, offensively and defensively, at a traditionally weak position.

I love Matt Cain. But I just don’t trust any pitcher to stay healthy and productive long enough to justify moving someone like Cano, who I see no reason to expect to slow down.

Accent Shallow

Agrre in toto.

I would love to have Cain, even at the cost of Montero. But not Robbie.

the other Steve S,

this

http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

Hey Brian, 2009-10 called, he wants his trade back.

Seriously, I would’ve done it last year. Regretted it, too.

http://twitter.com/stephen_mr Stephen Rhoads

2 years and 22 million of Cain for 3 years and 39 mil of Cano? No.

Brock Cohen

“…3 years and 39 mil of Cano?”

Tack on another six years and $120 mil now that Boras has entered the picture.

steve (different one)

Tack on whatever extension Cain would require…

http://twitter.com/stephen_mr Stephen Rhoads

Right, but thats largely a moot point, I’d think.

http://twitter.com/stephen_mr Stephen Rhoads

I am interested to see what kind of deal Cain can get in two years as a FA.

Corey

Thats a joke if you think cano is actually going to sign an extension, he is 100% going on the open market

Diane

NO, NO, NO!!! My gut tells me NO, and my gut was right on past signings and trades when they were made (before it became evident they were bad ideas ie: Giambi, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown).

hawkins44

No.

http://twitter.com/TylerWilkinson T-Dubs

I say no.

http://www.yfsf.org AndrewYF

Yeah, hell naw. Cano is simply a more valuable player, not even taking into account the switch from NL to AL, and the switch from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s paradise (especially for RHP), AND assuming some normal regression from Robbie.

And this is if the Yankees even had a top-tier second base prospect in the minor leagues. The downgrade from Cano to someone like Belliard is so much more than the downgrade from Cain to Garcia/whomever. Like, 2 or 3 wins more.

Wow, I thought it might be a possibility before investigating further, but now it would just be one of the stupidest trades in Yankees history. Cano is an incredibly valuable player, and it’s not like he’s only valuable to the Yankees. Every team that has a viable payroll would be salivating if you put him on the market (which the Yankees would never do).

scott

how bout a big fat NO

Jake H

Yes if David Adams is destroying AA lil he did last year. He won’t be as great as Robbie but would be above average 2nd base.

Andrew Brotherton

I’m asking for another prospect along with Cain. Premium young position players are the biggest commodity in baseball. They are worth their weight in gold. You can always sign pitchers, and throw as many as you can against the wall but premium young up the middle players you just don’t get rid of. Unless you think either Adams or Joseph are the real deal right now, you don’t make that deal.

Gonzo

If David Adams didn’t get hurt and continued to rake, this would have been a tougher question. No.

For the record, I’d rather have Cain than Lincecum.

bakekrukow412

Not even for King Felix. Robbie is the face of the team. The torch has been passed. Mitch Williams said on MLB Tonight that Cano was “the best player on the planet.” Might be an overstatement, but still. If you trade Cano your braindead.

How so? Cano is the next generation’s great Yankee. Jeter was the face of the team in the 1990’s and 2000’s. This decade belongs to Cano. Trading him for anyone is foolish. It would’ve been like trading Jeter for Pedro back in his heyday. Sure, your getting the best pitcher in baseball, but look what your losing.

Brock Cohen

I find this comment interesting. Not that you’re wrong, but a year ago, people were dogging on Robbie like crazy, and now they have his stone waiting in monument park.

bakekrukow412

He’s matured not only as a player, but as a person over the last few years. I think he’s really going to take the league by storm over the next couple of seasons.

Sayid J.

I don’t really think he can get much better than he did last year. I wouldn’t trade Cano for Cain, but I don’t think it’s crazy. I also don’t think we should turn down this trade proposal because “Cano is the next generation’s great yankee.”

bakekrukow412

So your telling me if in 1999 the Red Sox agreed to trade Pedro for Jeter and another young position player, lets say, Jorge Posada, you’d do it? Because to get King Felix, it would have to be Cano, and probably Montero at least. I do think that’s crazy.

Sayid J.

You can’t just compare like that. Cano is not Jeter. Cain is not Pedro.
It’s just a different situation.

And we aren’t talking about King Felix either, but since you brought it up, you said you wouldn’t trade Cano for Felix straight up, and I think thats crazy. I would trade Cano for Felix in a heartbeat, as would many other people.

But if you must, I’d 100% have considered trading Jeter for Pedro straight up in 1999.

Gonzo

Jeter’s fWAR from age 28 to 34 seasons (Cano’s ages for the next 7 years) are 32.4.

Pedro’s fWAR from ages 25 to 31 (Felix’s ages for the next 7 year) is 59.8.

He also out-fWAR’d Jeter in just the next 2 years in the example above.

Just doing the legwork for you. Use bWAR if you like.

bakekrukow412

I was just using it as an example. Jeter is similar to Cano in that they are both young, homegrown middle infielders with huge potential. Pedro and Felix are both pitchers who are the best in baseball during their prime years. If your saying you’d trade Cano for Felix in a heartbeat, that must mean you’d do the same for Jeter and Pedro had the opportunity been there. Now, looking back, that would’ve been a bad trade, because Pedro was no longer the top pitcher in baseball by 2005. Meanwhile, Jeter was still in the MVP race in 2009, has become the all time Yankee hit king, and will get 3,000 hits this year. I’m sorry, but I just don’t think there is any amount of statistics or sabermetrics that will convince me trading Cano for Felix is a good idea.

Gonzo

Not saying one way or the other. Just pointing out the problem with your analogy.

I’ll do it again. Instead of saying Jeter was an MVP candidate in ’09, is the Captain, and will be the 1st Yankee to hit 3000 hits, try saying Cano is…will be…etc….

Gonzo

Jeter younger than Pedro. Cano older than King Felix.

nsalem

stupid people

steve (different one)

No, that was 2 years ago. Robbie’s bad year was 2 years ago.

Domino

Cano had 1 down year…only the NY media was dogging him…which is crazy because the NY media never seems to overreact

http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

“Mitch Williams said…”

lemme stop you there.

bakekrukow412

Haha I usually disregard whatever he says.

Billion$Bullpen

best post EVER on ANY site EVER

pete

That’s insane. Felix is the either the best or the second best pitcher in the world, and he’s 24 and signed to a team-friendly (for a pitcher that good) six-year deal. Cano, meanwhile, has two years left on his contract.

6 years of Felix + David Adams >>>>>>>>>>>> 2 years of Cano + back-end starter we got for David Adams, Adam Warren, and Melky Mesa.

bakekrukow412

Adams hasn’t played above AA yet. You have no idea what your going to get. Again, I offer this analogy: Pedro was the best pitcher on the Milky Way in the late 1990’s. You would’ve been okay dealing Jeter for him?

Gonzo

Pedro is almost 3 years older than Jeter. King Felix is 3 1/2 years younger than Cano. Not saying one thing either way, but it makes a difference to some.

I don’t think it makes sense. Cain isn’t good enough to dangle our best under-30 position player and open a black hole at 2B. I would love Cain under other circumstances, though.

felixbanuelos

Of course. Look at his postseason ERA

CS Yankee

Cashman would put him on hold, call The M’s and check on King Felix & Josh…pause and call the Rox’s and check on Jimenez and once those three GM’s said no thanks, would come to his senses and tell them that would raise too much cain if I did that.

mbonzo

It would be hard for me to trade Cano, he’s one of my favorite hitters ever. Putting my love for Cano aside, I would consider a trade but I think Cano is worth about 1.5 Cains. They’d have to trade Cain plus a guy like Zack Wheeler.

SabathiaWouldBeGoodAtTheEighthToo

If they throw in Sanchez or Bumgarner too, then I’d consider it.

Cain is arguably in the top 20 starters in the game, but Cano is arguably the best 2B in baseball, and you could even make the case for one of the top 10-15 hitters.

S

throw in Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner along with Cain and replace Robbie Cano with Pena and I would think we could talk.

That’s the deal I’d make in a heart beat, now let’s see if we can get SF to do it….anyone know if Arod still has the number of his friend the Brothel Madam?

pete

and you could even make the case for one of the top 10-15 hitters

could you? I bet I can list at least 15 guys who are pretty much inarguably better hitters than Cano right now:

Youk
Choo
Werth
Dunn
Konerko
Utley (Our Robbie has become the best offensive 2B in the entire MLB)

I think he’s on equal footing as hitter to Hamilton, Hanley, Tulo, Holliday

The only guys I think are actually better are Miggs, Pujols, and Mauer

Konerko, Dunn and Fielder have more power than Cano but that’s the only advantage I see over Cano.

23553

I might take Mauer over Cano as a player, but not a hitter.

Domino

wow that list was filled was hitters not in the same class as Cano..I would think people are talking about cano as one of the best pure hitters in the game, which cannot be argued.

Youkilis
Tulo
Jayson Werth ( I figured you were joking)
Prince Fielder (Now I figured you were really joking)
Choo (He is getting there, I will give you that)
Adrian Gonzalez (now his #’s in fenway may push him ahead of Cano, but I don’t he is a better pure hitter today)
Utley (definitly not a better pure hitter, maybe a few years ago but definitly not now)(and how is he a better all around 2nd Basemen? even if they are the same offensively, Cano is better defensively BY FAR
Konerko (you went back to making jokes)
Dunn (this guy k’s more than he hits and has a career BA of .250, thats 60 points lower than Cano’s…this one is not even funny)
Tex (isn’t even close to Cano..he is batting where Cano should bat too…he might be better if he showed up in April or at the end of the season)

Overall your list was pretty comical….I don’t think people really appreciate Cano as an offensively gifted player and ridiculously talented defensive player. I do not understand why people rush to undervalue Cano and discuss trades for him, when there is no need. He is not problem and the Yankees will be fine this season as long as they are healthy.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

First of all, there isn’t any “arguably” about it. Cano is the best 2B in the game. Secondly, Pete, there is no way in hell you can put Dunn ahead of Cano. Also, while they are dangerous hitters, I’m not putting Werth, Fielder, Konerko or Choo ahead of him either.

But seriously, no. I wouldn’t do it. I’d do it for Lincecum. I’d do it for Felix(in this case, Cano + prospects obviously). But not Cain.

David

Pass. Too much to give up. What they need to wait for is a team that wants to unload payroll and add prospects.

BavarianYankee

that would be a steal for the Giants imo. Cain is a good pitcher but I also think he’s overrated because of his ERA. Cain’s numbers will come down to earth sooner than later and he’s an extreme flyball pitcher. We’re playing in Yankee Stadium u know ;)
Why would the Yankees do this? Trading probably the best 2B for an above average but not elite pitcher seems like a dumb trade to me. I think/hope Cashman is smart enough to never even consider a trade like this.

Brock Cohen

“Why would the Yankees do this?

Because Matt Cain is not an above-average pitcher. By almost all statistical measures, he’s very good and incredibly durable. And because the days of acquiring very good, durable pitchers about to enter the primes of their careers via free agency is all but over.

Yeah, he’s probably the “one of these things that’s not like the other.”

That was the Grit lover in me coming out.

http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

alex

Sayid J.

I’m with you Brock. I would probably turn down the trade offer as well, but I’m not quite sure why there isn’t even any consideration here. Obviously a bit of status quo bias here, but still. Cano is not likely to improve much upon what he has already done and is 2 years older than Cain.

The real question is… Cain + FA 2B vs Cano + Mitre/Colon/Garcia. I don’t think the FA 2B can make up for the loss of Cano, but it’s certainly not a crazy thought.

BavarianYankee

“By almost all statistical measures, he’s very good and incredibly durable”

and I absolutely agree. He’s very durable, that’s a fact. And his numbers are good now but if you look behind the numbers you also can’t deny that there’s not much room to improve at all. Moving him to a park like Yankee Stadium may very well raise his ERA above 4. Just because he’s playing in AT&T Park is the reason why he doesn’t give up that many homers and that’s also the reason why he has such an absurd strand rate. That’s the reason why I don’t think he would be a good fit for the Yankees.

If I want to trade Cano then I want an elite pitcher like Felix. No need to trade Robbie for somebody like Cain.

Evan3457

1. Matt Cain is not an above-average pitcher.

2. By almost all statistical measures, he’s very good and incredibly durable.

Wait; what?

Typo?

NickP

No shot, wouldn’t even give it second though. The leagues best 2nd baseman for an above-average, not elite, pitcher. No thank you.

I just don’t think that highly of Cain. I’d love to have him but he’s a #3 guy in the AL East in our ballpark. If you took away the pitcher his k/9 is probably in the 6’s. A massive pitchers park in one of the weakest divisions in the NL to the meat grinder of the AL East and a park that yields its fair share of HR’s is a big difference.

To me he looks like Phil Hughes. The biggest difference is the HR/9 and some of that I’m sure has to do with the league and ballpark. Other than that they are extremely close. If Hughes was 26 would you trade Robbie for him? I wouldn’t. However, I would trade Matsui for him in 2007.

mike c

I’d give up cano if it was part of a bigger deal like cain + bumgarner or something

Danimal

Cano will play nearly every day. Cain would pitch every 5. So there’s that. Plus, besides Utley and Pedroia, is there even anyone close at 2nd?

Wouldn’t do it.

Jonathan

Kinsler when healthy…but that is a big if.

Danimal

thought about him. And Uggla. Uggla doesn’t have the avg, and made 3 errors in the ASG… and Kinsler is a stud… when healthy, you’re right.

FIPster Doofus

Rickie Weeks if he can continue his 2010 performance going forward, but there’s no guarantee of that when you consider his past injuries and inconsistency.

Brian

ABSOLUTELY NOT. One of our few proven stars who isn’t over the hill for a guy who’s spent his entire career in the NL West? I admit I’m a little too harsh on the NL, but I would never trust a guy to make a smooth transition form the NL West to the AL East. Plus, even though he’s been healthy so far, this day and age that only means he’s (most likely) due for an injury sometime soon.. Cano’s still got some growing up to do in terms of plate discipline, patience, and staying out of those DP’s but he’s still a home-grown Yankee star.

Rey22

For Montero and a Killer B or something, yes. In a heartbeat(Hypothetical, I know they have C and 1B covered)

Cano…not so much.

OxxStone

Only for King Felix.

Danimal

Cano for Dontrelle Willis.

Straight up.

Rey22

We’ll throw in Montero, just to make it fair.

felixbanuelos

makeit a three team trade, giving cc to the mets for olly perez

Evan3457

Throw in your brother, and we’ll call it a deal.

bpdelia

No I wouldn’t. But the real question to me is are you willing ot make an offer for Felix that couldn’t be turned down.

I’m talking would you do CANO, Montero, one of Bettances or Banuelos and then say Adams and Noesi.

Thats the kind of deal that Seattle would have to take. A veteran All star on a nice contract, a top hitting propsect, and ace type SP prospect and a couple of ML prospects who project to be league average type guys.

Thats a massive haul but in my mind Hernandez is a once in a generation type starter.

I might be willing to do that deal.

Would anyone else do that?

And could Seattle POSSIBLY turn down a trade like that in their position?

bpdelia

Man I’m not sure I would even do the trade I just proposed but it goes to show how impossible it is to get aces.

You MUST develop pitchers. No team is willing to trade their elite SPs because they are hella rare. It would take a deal like the one I jsut proposed. Is that kind of deal even worth it?

Lol at responding to myself. . . my favorite type of conversation.

toad

You MUST develop pitchers.

Right. There is simply too much risk to do it any other way.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

No way in hell I do that trade. I don’t care how good Felix is.

bpdelia

Yeah but see I honestly believe that’s what it takes to get Felix Hernandez or Tim LIncecum or (to a lesser degree perhaps) Clayton Kershaw.

The yankees would have to blow these teams away. You’d have to make an offer that they couldn’t refuse.

SO there is no ace coming. The fact that it would take a player like Cano or top prospects to land a pitcher like Cain (whom I actually do NOT think is terribly overrated despite the venom he inspires at FG) points to the fact that elite pitchers cannot be had.

I think Cain is a very good pitcher who has outshined his peripherals enough to consider it a skill.

But he’s a #2. To get one of the best pitchers in baseball ENTERING the prime of his career would take a massive insane haul.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

Yea, I can definitely see what you’re saying. And I think you said it in one of your above comments, but that is why the Yankees (and teams in general) need to develop their own arms.

MattG

All sorts of fail in the logic in this post. Please go back and look at what Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Johan Santana fetched in trades. You might say it’s because they had limited time left on their contracts, but elite pitchers do become available, and they do not fetch nearly as much as you would expect.

Kevin Ocala, Fl

I wouldn’t trade Cano for Cain if Cain was benefiting from the Coriolis effect v suffering from the Verducci Curse. Young, up the middle, hitting stars shouldn’t be traded unless, maybe, your talking King Felix. Maybe, because maybe, Felix is shredded meat in a year or two………

Adam

I don’t have any problem trading Cano, provided you’re getting a slam-dunk in return as far as a talent and I really don’t see how Matt Cain, the second best pitcher on an NL team (albeit an excellent one) is worth arguably the best second baseman in the game, as well as one of the best players in the game. the fact of the matter is Cain’s peripherials really aren’t that great, he’s got a so-so FIP, his GB/FB have always eschewed very lucky, which makes him less than a sure bet coming over to a much more difficult league, as well as a much more hitter friendly park. If you’re going to give up arguably your best player you have to make your team better as a result of it, and I don’t see anyway that Cain’s WAR next year or over the length of his career will be close to Cano’s because pitchers are so much more risky and less valuable because they’re not playing everyday. I like the creative thinking, but I don’t think you’re really getting an equitable return.

nsalem

Matt Cain is an excellent pitcher. He is an upper echelon number two starter. There is a case for calling Cano the best defensive player in baseball and right now his offensive numbers rank him with the top 5 second basemen ever. He has tremendous upside offensively especially playing in Yankee Stadium. The author of this articles first name namesake was traded in 1964 for Ernie Broglio who was at about Cain’s
age and pitching level at the time of the trade. You would just have to look at the results of that trade to see how potentially disastrous
a trade like this could be. Simply put there are more Matt Cain’s out there than Robbie Cano’s. Roberto Alomar just got into the Hall of Fame on his second try and I think Robbie will prove to have a superior career. Cano also will probably never spit on an umpire.

http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

I love Cano, but you’re going way overboard on Robbie’s place in history and as a defender.

As good as Cano was in 2009, Alomar at his peak was better both offensively and defensively.

nsalem

It’s not going overboard. Granted Cano will probably never have an OBP of .420. He will never steal 30 bases in a season and he will never walk 90 times. However Alomar never hit 25 HRS nor did Alomar ever have 70 XBH in a season. I think its within reason that Cano may improve and match or surpass some of Alomar’s best OPS seasons. Alomar went .890 or over 5 times and Cano at 28 has done it twice. I think went its all said and done Cano will be in Alomar’s ballpark which are gold standard time numbers. Besides Hornsby, Collins, Robinson, Morgan and Alomar I don’t know of any second basemen with better offensive numbers at 28 years old. If I’m missing somebody PLEASE let me know. Anyway I think it would be incredibly shortsighted to trade him for Matt Cain.

http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

Cano has a long, long, long way to go to be considered among the greats.

nsalem

All the greats had a long way to go when they were 28. It goes without saying.

JMK

Besides Hornsby, Collins, Robinson, Morgan and Alomar I don’t know of any second basemen with better offensive numbers at 28 years old.

Utley. Biggio.

nsalem

Biggio’s numbers were nowhere near Cano at age 28.

kosmo

Do you mean Jackie Robinson ? He wasn´t called up to the majors until he was 28 years old.Something to do with America´s checkered past.
Morgan didn´t hit his prime years until he reached 28 with the Reds.His years with the Astros were so so.
Look at Lazzeri,Gordon and Doerr for great offensive 2B in their early years.Then add Gehringer ,Sandberg and Kent post 28 yrs old.

nsalem

Kosmo True Robinson is entitled to be judged on a totally different scale having been robbed of 7 years.
Lazzeri was a great hitter especially early on, but Cano is still close to him in some offensive categories and does have some superior power numbers. Gordon was a great power hitter especially for a righty in YS1, but he was more of a BB/K/HR guy with very little speed (he was CS 40% of the time). Doerr had nowhere near Cano’s offensive production. Doerr and Gordon both played several years during WW2 where the quality of the game was watered down. It should also be noted that both Lazzeri and Gordon were very poor defensively.

kosmo

I thought you were talking about “offensive numbers“ as stated in your above post.???
Doerr could easily match Cano´s first 6 years.Both Doerr and Gordon lost valuable playing time serving in the armed forces which has little to do about playing when the game was “watered down“.

JMK

Matt Cain is an excellent pitcher. He is an upper echelon number two starter.

There is a case for calling Cano the best defensive player in baseball…

Ummm…no. He’s improved and has an incredible arm, but that just isn’t true.

…and right now his offensive numbers rank him with the top 5 second basemen ever.

Top 5? He’s up there, and I haven’t run the statistics, but that seems a bit high. Even today, Chase Utley has better offensive statistics. Biggio, Hornsby, Morgan, Robinson, Kent, Alomar, Utley, Collins all had very good offensive statistics although era clouds some things a bit. Could he reach it? I think so because his contact and power are quite good (his on-base skills seem to be improving but it’s presumptive to say he’s there yet on that front), especially for the position. But I call bullshit on him now being top 5.

He has tremendous upside offensively especially playing in Yankee Stadium.

Agreed.

The author of this articles first name namesake was traded in 1964 for Ernie Broglio who was at about Cain’s age and pitching level at the time of the trade. You would just have to look at the results of that trade to see how potentially disastrous a trade like this could be.

Strangely phrased but yes, it’s quite conceivable it could be ‘a disaster’.

Simply put there are more Matt Cain’s out there than Robbie Cano’s. Roberto Alomar just got into the Hall of Fame on his second try and I think Robbie will prove to have a superior career. Cano also will probably never spit on an umpire.

Yes, there are likely to be more Matt Cain’s out there. But, as Steve H said, you’re really underrating Alomar – he was fantastic both offensively and defensively.

nsalem

How could I be under rating Alomar when I used the word gold standard next to his name????? What are you talking about? Check out Kent and Biggio’s numbers through age 28 and then compare them to Cano’s. I don’t think it’s an arguement that Cano was better at that point. Granted many of the players mentioned have better plate discipline and stole more bases than Cano. However Robinson never hit twenty home runs and only had sixty xbh’s once and he played in some really small stadiums. Utely’s numbers are comparable or better as were Alomar’s.
Then you have Hornsby and Collins. Would you feel it was less bullshit if I amended the statement to Post WW2?
As far as “I think of ‘excellent’ pitchers as aces, not upper-echelon #2s. Very good? Sure. Excellent? Nah. Maybe it’s semantics. Whatever.”
That is semantics and I would also classify it as nitpickiery.
Peace

NJYankeeFan

The Giants would have to sweeten the deal because right now, Cano is more valuable than Cain plus the there is a much better probability of a position player staying healthy than a pitcher.
If Corban Joseph or Dave Adams were to blow up, however, I think you’d have to at least entertain trading Cano because as Brock Cohen mentioned above, most teams are buying out the first few free agent years of their good young starters so moving forward, it’s gonna be more and more difficult to sign a good free agent starter under the age of 30.

camilo

agreed, however, we shouldn’t underrate Cano in the even taht CoJo or Adams blows up Trenton. if they do light the EL up, why not package them to get a similar starter to Matt cain.?

Mike Irish

More elite young pitchers need to hire Scott Boras as their agent.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

I know I might be the minority in this, but I wouldn’t even trade Jesus Montero for Matt Cain. I was gearing up for that hypothetical trade to be proposed. When I read on and realized that the hypothetical scenario was trading Cano (!!!) for Matt Cain…I couldn’t be more adamantly against this.

NJYankeeFan

Now that’s just crazy. If Sabean calls tomorrow with a Cain for Montero offer straight up, Jesus’ bags are packed. At one time, Matt Wieters and Saltalamacchia were catching prospects right up there with Montero and look what’s happened with them. Remember, a bird in the hand….

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

I’m not saying that my prospect hugging is the right move necessarily. I was just using that to illustrate just how adamantly against trading Cano for Cain I would be. Objectively, if there was a Cain for Montero trade proposed you probably have to do it. I just wouldn’t happy about it at all on a personal level.

Trading Cano, the best 2B in the game, for Cain is a substantially different story though. Objectively, this is a trade that the Yankees should decline 100% of the time.

Tank the Frank

No.

Cano is officially an elite position player. He shouldn’t be traded for anything less than an elite pitcher. Cain, as Brock pointed out, is not in that class. He’s really, really good, but not elite.

That being said, I don’t think I would trade robbie for cain straight up.

Frank

No thank you

David

It is a great article because it illustrates something that fans have trouble with, which is that you have to give plenty to get something top level.

Andrew518

Sort of fix the pitching problem, create an offense problem. I think it’s safe to say that Robbie is our best hitter, and at times last year looked like our only consistant hitter, no disrespect to Swish but I don’t think they’re the same class.

Cain is good, but NL pitcher from pitcher friendly park not anywhere equal to Cano.

Stan the Man

I only make this trade if the Giants give the Yanks Timmy, Cain, Wilson, and Sanchez in exchange for Cano. And before anyone says this is way too much, just remember that this hypothetical situation proposed in this article is the dumbest thing I have ever read in my life.

Evan3457

Not a Lupica fan, eh?

BROCK COHEN’S a MORON

for even presenting this as if anybody who has any knowledge of baseball should consider this trade…I repeat you are a moron

http://danielslifka.wordpress.com “BROCK COHEN’S a MORON” is an ASSHOLE

And YOU sir, are an asshole.

I repeat you are an asshole.

BROCK COHEN’S a MORON

Well if Cashman made this trade, like this article suggests he should, I’m sure he would be called a Moron and an Asshole.

NJYankeeFan

That comment is uncalled for. This was a good article as witnessed by the large number of comments it has provoked.

BROCK COHEN’S a MORON

I guess my comment wasn’t bad then. Since it also provoked comments.

Kevin Ocala, Fl

Well, your a model of civility. I think you’ll go far, in the Taliban….

Whata Giveaway

This isn’t your real name is it?

If so, how’s Mommy Moron, Daddy Moron, and all the other little Morons?

NJYankeeFan

The only pitchers I’d consider trading Cano straight up for would be King Felix, Josh Johnson, Verlander, Greinke, Wainright, Lincecum, Jimenez, Lester and Kershaw.

Anthony Murillo

Hells no.

Max

I would rather have Mitre/Garcia start every fifth day than watch Pena/Nunez play everyday.

Monteroisdinero

I say CaNO to the trade. He is our best hitter. Move him to second or third in the batting order please.

Montero projects to be our second best hitter in due course. Do not trade him either for Cain.

/biasedseemyhandle

Evan3457

It’s just me, but if the Yanks are patient, I think your favorite surpasses Cano not later than say…2015.

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

We’re on the same page here. The list of players that I’d be willing to see Montero traded for is short and Cain isn’t on it.

As far as Cano, there isn’t a pitcher in the game that I’m trading him for. As a matter of fact, its getting to the point where teams need to be offering packages of players if they want to acquire the 2nd best middle infielder in the game.

JMK

I’ll chime in here agreeing with the consensus–I absolutely would not trade Cano for Cain.

I also don’t think the Giants will be trading him, and if they did, they’d have to be wowed.

But, as some have noted, he’s a very good pitcher although his statistics are strange. Always outperforming his XFIP, absurdly low HR/FB rates, etc. I think at this point it’s a skill, but who really knows?

Bottom line, I think he’s a good #2 starter but to trade him for the top 2B in the game (although Utley may be better; hard to say) with a good contract in his prime is a no-go.

So I’ll pose a question of my own: what would you trade for Cain (something reasonable, too). Bear in mind that our greatest organizational strength isn’t much of a need for them (C).

My offer: Gardner, Betances, Laird, Noesi/Warren/Nova

Too much? Not enough?

Thoughts?

mike c

probably not enough.. without cain SF wouldn’t have the world series and none of those trade chips are really difference makers

mike c

cano + the killer b’s for cain & bumgarner might be a tough choice to make though

http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig

No, that’d still be an extremely easy choice.

LarryM.,Fl.

No way!!

Teh Comp Pick

Cain last two years = 7.5fWAR, Cano over same time= 10.8

Cain is one of those guys who always out perform his periperhals I believe. I would not even consider giving up Cano for him. Lincecum on the other hand….

matt s

No way. Cain’s numbers look great but he pitches in the easiest division of the easiest league in a very cushy pitchers park, with 2 other strong pitcher parks in his division. His numbers would most likely be very average in the AL east, and it would seem like a real waste to lose Cano for an average innings eater.

Billion$Bullpen

Cano for Felix and I JUMP to make it happen. I then resign Cano when he is a free agent if I have not found something that works better for the team / budget.

MattG

This is really easy to answer. It’s a resounding no.

Cain is not quite elite, as admitted by the author. Cano is undeniably elite. What more do you need to consider?

But should you look further, you will find more things to tip to Cano’s favor. There is no such thing as a dependable pitcher, for one. Pitchers are one misstep from the end of a career at all times (just ask CMW). Cano has the more favorable contract: elite production at a bargain price for three years, while Cain comes free in two. Robbie is probably in a good park for his skills, but Cain’s situation is better: AT&T park and the NL West? Yes, thank you!

If Cano is traded for a pitcher, it will be a thus far dependable pitcher that is elite and is signed to a good contract for a significant time. I’d love to have Cain, but Cano is flat out more valuable.

Now, is Jonathan Sanchez still on the block? Cashman has a bunch of C-grade prospects burning a hole in his pocket.

http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

Is Cano really elite? He is certainly the best at his position in the league. But he isn’t yet a 30 HR guy. He isn’t a .400 OBP guy. He has no speed. Offensively, it’s questionable. While I discount him for his position and will call him “elite,” I do ask… is it so undeniable?

MattG

If you do not give him position scarcity, he is not elite.

But why would you deny him his position bonus? He’s in the discussion for the top second baseman in the game, and he should continue to be in that discussion for the next 3-4 years (at least). That’s elite.

Who here expects Cano to continue his strike-zone development? I can’t recall a hitter that improved his pitch selection as Cano has that didn’t become an OBP machine. What Cano did in 2010, by maintaining his batting average, boosting his power, and adding a lot of walks, is an incredible sign of things to come.

/pieintheskied

Greg C

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelllllllllllll NO.

Ted Nelson

Obviously Robbie is a very good player and I don’t know if I do or don’t make that trade, but people put way too much stock in the most recent season.

Basically the consensus seems to be that no pitcher on the team can outperform their 2010 seasons and that Robbie Cano can’t possibly regress from his career season.

I mean there are people literally calling Cano the best player in baseball on this thread… I’m a homer and pretty biased towards the Yankees, but the best player in the game?

MattG

There are a lot of really good trends in that ‘career’ season, though. You don’t see players add power and walks while maintaining contact and average often. When you do, it usually means good things…or they were 27.

Ted Nelson

Yeah, I think there are reasons to believe Cano can maintain a similar level the next few seasons at least. He could even continue to improve. There is a chance he could step back a bit, though. He had a career season to date in most offensive categories. Plenty of room far a small regression. And even last season it’s hard to say he was the best player in baseball or the best middle infielder.

Burnett at 34 is also at a point where he may be on the decline naturally and never get it back, but 2010 was an outlier against his career so there’s a good chance he bounces back to some extent. Different circumstances, but same for CC. Hughes is at an age where he could improve. Garcia has been ok the past two seasons but everyone expects disaster. Really there are some reasons for optimism with all the starters.

Craig

“Burnett at 34 is also at a point where he may be on the decline”

There’s no maybe about it. His fastball is down 3 MPH since 2007, his K/9 has dropped and his ERA, FIP and HR/9 have risen every year since 2008. To make matters worse, he doesn’t seem to have the command, savvy or mental toughness to learn to be effective with lesser stuff. If I’m Cashman, I’m not counting on getting much from Burnett.

Ted Nelson

There is definitely a maybe. A two season trend doesn’t mean he can’t stop the trend in 2011.

Not only would I expect him to be better in 2011 than 2010, but so would both the Bill James and Marcel models.

“To make matters worse, he doesn’t seem to have the command, savvy or mental toughness to learn to be effective with lesser stuff.”

Total speculation. He had one bad season after averaging 3.8 WAR for 6 seasons and suddenly he’s never coming back…

“If I’m Cashman, I’m not counting on getting much from Burnett.”

If I’m Cashman I’m not counting on anything, but just seeing how things go. You’re not trading that contract before the season, so I don’t see too much reason to worry about it. Unless his spring is just awful and everyone else’s is amazing he’s starting the season in the rotation and then you just see how it goes.

Craig

“Total speculation. He had one bad season after averaging 3.8 WAR for 6 seasons and suddenly he’s never coming back…”
Kevin Millwood averaged 3.7 WAR from 2002-2009. You think he’s gonna improve. All that says was the he used to be good. Most players are good to some degree until they suck.
It’s also a fact he has poor command. You honestly think he could get by painting corners? He often just falls apart when he has just filthy stuff.
1 year may be a fluke. 2 is a trend and his velocity has been dropping for 3 years now.
Your only point I agree with is they should expect nothing from him and hope for the best.

Ted Nelson

“A two season trend doesn’t mean he can’t stop the trend in 2011.”
“1 year may be a fluke. 2 is a trend and his velocity has been dropping for 3 years now.”

Pretty sure I never said it was a fluke and said it was a trend. I didn’t say he’s going to bounce back to the 3.5-5.5 WAR pitcher he was. I said that just as the trend could continue, it could also stop. Clearly you can predict the future, though, and know it’s a “fact” that AJ Burnett is a total bum who is incapable of improving on his 2010 performance. Good for you.

Craig

No I can’t predict the future but I think the evidence points to Burnett MOST LIKELY not contributing much in 2011.

Yeah the slide could stop…with Burnett as a 1.3 WAR pitcher like he was last year which would pretty much leave the Yanks with only 2 reliable starters.

You talk out of both sides of your mouth. In one post, you state “If I’m Cashman I’m not counting on anything” but in another, you state “He had one bad season after averaging 3.8 WAR for 6 seasons and suddenly he’s never coming back…”

I hope he’s bouncing back because right now we have no #2 starter and if he’s not, that’s spot is gonna bitch to fill.

Ted Nelson

I probably don’t make the Cano-Cain swap… Unless a bunch of things all broke a certain way, like: rotation is truly awful and injuries strike one or two of the top 3, Adams is raking, Boras is being Boras and asking for a 10 year $300 mill extension, etc.

Reggie C.

would rather trade TWO of the killa-Bs rather than Cano. i’d love to see Cain take the #2 mantle in this rotation, but at the cost of Cano, it would simply set back the offense.

Cano is about as money a hitter as one could hope. Cano’s power might even keep growing over the nxt couple seasons. Cano’s angling for a gigantic contract by hiring Boras, and i’m fine with that as long as he earns it in pinstripes.

Tank Foster

I wouldn’t make that trade.

Cano is durable, and there is, I think anyway, less uncertainty about position players breaking down than pitchers.

In other words, Cano’s chances of staying reasonably healthy are better than Cain’s.

I know Cain has been durable so far, but it’s just more of a crap shoot with pitchers.

The next two years could be really weak offensively without Robbie.

NapLajoieOnSteroids

A team like the Giants, who need hitters, would probably settle for a Granderson/Swisher+ 1 or 2 prospects package.

I’d jump on that in a heart beat.

But Cano wouldn’t be worth it.

http://dosrevival.com Joe DiMaggio’s Ego-Ghost

I love Swisher but we could sell high on him, throw a David Adams/Phelps type or two in there and get it done. If Sabean is comfortable with Zito it’s a remote possibility.

http://dosrevival.com Joe DiMaggio’s Ego-Ghost

This was proposed on NoMaas about 2 years ago. It may have made sense then, but Cano was the Yankees’ best player last year. There’s no way he’s getting traded. That being said, if Cain were available, I’d love to have him, but we’re not in a position to be trading away stars.

J Nic

Funny thing is we could have had him back in 2007. The Giants wanted Matsui for Sanchez and a prospect but would have considered Cain if they didn’t have to lose the prospect.

Joe

Definitely wouldn’t and here’s why: In the Yankees current farm system there is absolutely no one who could even approximate the talent and the value of Cano at the 2nd base position, whereas there are a few pitchers (mainly the Betances and Brackmans of the world) who could possibly (not very likely, but possibly) approximate Cain’s value as a #2 Starter. We have to consider the fact that we will be able to control these players for a significantly longer time at a completely low cost, and since we have more than one of these prospects we won’t have to rely on one of them to accomplish this feat. Also, trading Cano will open a big hole in our lineup which will not easily be replaced by anyone in the free agent or trade markets. Think that the pitching market is thin, then take a look at the 2nd basemen available out there.

Midland TX

I wouldn’t rush into anything but I’d give Montero a few innings in the field at 2B in Spring Training.

Cliff

Fuck and no!!!!

MikeD

I don’t trade Cano for an NL pitcher unless he’s in the Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum range. All others are highly suspect coming to the AL East.

Period.

yanksfan81

If it were J Johnson or Felix then i would consider it but even then i’m not sure it would make this team better this yr. I’m with the group that Cano plays everyday and i pitcher is once every 5 days. To me the playoffs are were elite pitchers make the biggest difference not so much in the regular season.

Cain isn’t someone i would trade Cano for, i would think the Giants would take that deal in a heartbeat because it would really really help there offense and with the emergance of Bamguardner and Sanchez the could still have an elite rotation.

camilo Gerardo

hheeeeel nawwwwww

JSBeckerman

Cano just hired Scott Bor-ass as his agent and is eligible as a FA in 2013, so I say trade him now while his value is high.

http://none Aaron

I would not make that trade. Despite the excellent analysis by Paapafly dot com, Cain in the AL East, in parks like Fenway for 18 games, and Yankee Stadium for the another 80 games, and the improved lineups of every team in the East, would run out of luck.

When you flip a coin 100 times, sometimes you come up heads 65 times; eventually you will have a lot more tails to even the graph out. The new Stadium doesn’t have as much foul territory for pop flys, and although HRs were down last year from the previous year, it is no AT&T park.

Perhaps Texas should trade Young for Cain? It would be a slick move for Cashman to get Young from Texas, and then send him to San Fran for Cain; doesn’t seem likely due to the bickering between Rangers and Yank, and in addition, any move would have to be approved by Young. In the end, Young would get what he wants: aa chance to play everyday.

I am intrigued by the opportunity to get a pitcher of Cain’s caliber.. but to give up a tp 5 offensive infielder (who rarely bats at the top half of the order, mind you; imagine if he was cleanup.. what would his numbers look like?), who is also young and improving each season defensively, is a panic move.

I would trade Montero and Brackman, before traing an established Cano.

I will keep an open mind until you finish posting your argument about Cano’s value.