Tag: wrote

Hunter was among the 12 percent of respondents who think the Federal Reserve, after hiking in December, would next move to reduce the Fed Funds rate and do so by October. While the percentage is small, no forecasters predicted a 2019 rate cut in the September survey. Just under 60 percent say the current low level of the spread between the yields on the 2-year and 10-year notes does not signal a recession. Asked how different factors have contributed to the recent sell-off, respondents named “ta

“Traditional signals of a U.S. recession from the shape of the yield curve to a fall in housing investment to corporate bond spreads are suggesting a recession in late 2019/early 2020,” wrote Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, in response to the survey.

Hunter was among the 12 percent of respondents who think the Federal Reserve, after hiking in December, would next move to reduce the Fed Funds rate and do so by October. While the percentage is small, no forecasters predicted a 2019 rate cut in the September survey.

And while the tone of responses is more negative, 63 percent of those surveyed believe the recent market sell-off reflects too pessimistic a view of the outlook, with about a third saying the market has it right. Just under 60 percent say the current low level of the spread between the yields on the 2-year and 10-year notes does not signal a recession.

“Market growth signals right now are out of line with economic fundamentals on our reading of both,” wrote John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ. “A resolution of trade uncertainty should encourage corporations to respond more strongly to the tax changes of December 2017 and boost capex.”

But Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, said the yield curve is “a signal the Fed is too tight and the risk of breaking the economy is rising.”

Asked how different factors have contributed to the recent sell-off, respondents named “tariff concerns” as the most significant followed by worries about global economic weakness and more Fed rate hikes.

Sixty-seven percent expect that the current trade talks between China and the U.S. will end on March 1 with an agreement to continue talking and without the imposition of additional tariffs. On average, however, the group expects tariffs to subtract 0.2 percent from growth in 2019, double the estimate from the September survey.

In an open letter posted to Twitter and addressed to “Tech Companies,” the Washington Post opinion video editor says she continued to be targeted with motherhood ads after learning that her baby would be stillborn. “I know you knew I was pregnant,” Brockell wrote in the letter and tagged with Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Experian’s handles. And, stupid me!, I even clicked once or twice on the maternity-wear ads Facebook served up.” Brockell wrote in her letter that even when she opted to not

At one of the saddest times of her life, Gillian Brockell kept seeing ads on social media that twisted the knife in her wound.

In an open letter posted to Twitter and addressed to “Tech Companies,” the Washington Post opinion video editor says she continued to be targeted with motherhood ads after learning that her baby would be stillborn.

At a time when the public is questioning tech companies’ hyper-specific ad targeting, Brockell’s letter highlights the damaging emotional effects this practice can have when these companies fail to adjust their targeting to new information about someone’s altered life situation.

“I know you knew I was pregnant,” Brockell wrote in the letter and tagged with Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Experian’s handles. “It’s my fault, I just couldn’t resist the hashtags – #30weekspregnant, #babybump. And, stupid me!, I even clicked once or twice on the maternity-wear ads Facebook served up.”

She continues the letter, revealing topics she searched for when she learned her baby would be stillborn.

“But didn’t you also see me googling ‘is this braxton hicks?’ and ‘baby not moving’? Did you not see the three days of silence, uncommon for a high-frequency user like me? And then the announcement with keywords like ‘heartbroken’ and ‘problem’ and ‘stillborn’ and the two-hundred teardrop emoticons from my friends? Is that not something you could track?”

Brockell wrote in her letter that even when she opted to not see the ads she was served for products to prepare her for her new baby, the companies misinterpreted her motivation. After answering a prompt about why she didn’t want to see the ad with “it’s not relevant to me,” she began being served ads for nursing bras and strollers, according to the letter. She said she then received what she called a “spam email” asking her to “finish registering your baby” in order to track his credit through Experian.

The average person is becoming increasingly more aware of the amount of data tech companies store on them. A New York Times investigation earlier this week showed that many seemingly mundane apps can actually track your location throughout the day to a specific spot in a room, and on Tuesday, Google CEO Sundar Pichai was questioned by the House Judiciary Committee about his company’s location-tracking policies. Brockell’s letter raises the question of why these companies still can’t adjust fully to the realities of people’s lives.

In a statement, a Twitter spokesperson said, “We cannot imagine the pain of those who have experienced this type of loss. We are continuously working on improving our advertising products to ensure they serve appropriate content to the people who use our services.”

Experian did not respond to requests for comment. Brockell pointed CNBC to tweets from a Facebook advertising executive, Rob Goldman, who explained how to turn off ads related to parenting. Facebook declined to comment beyond the tweets.

“I am so sorry for your loss and your painful experience with our products,” Goldman wrote. “We have a setting available that can block ads about some topics people may find painful — including parenting. It still needs improvement, but please know that we’re working on it & welcome your feedback.”

Brockell thanked Goldman for responding and suggested Facebook add a keyword like “stillborn” that would turn off ads automatically instead, saying the process of turning off ads is “too confusing when you’re grieving.”

Brockell also told CNBC she wished Experian would respond.

“Please, Tech Companies, I implore you: If you’re smart enough to realize that I’m pregnant, that I’ve given birth, then surely you’re smart enough to realize that my baby died, and can advertise to me accordingly,” Brockell wrote, “or maybe just maybe, not at all.”

Bernie Madoff turned 80 in 2018. His longtime defense attorney, Ira Lee Sorkin, says he last spoke with Madoff earlier this year. He’s doing OK,” Sorkin said, “as well as one could expect someone to be OK when they know they’re going to die in prison.” In a 2013 interview at the prison, he said life behind bars was proving to be less stressful than life on Wall Street. “It’s kind of like being in the Army,” he said, “only you’re not worried about getting killed.”

Bernie Madoff turned 80 in 2018. He apparently marked the occasion quietly at the medium security Federal Correctional Institution in Butner, North Carolina, where he is in the 10th year of a 150-year sentence. His longtime defense attorney, Ira Lee Sorkin, says he last spoke with Madoff earlier this year.

“He’s keeping his mind active. He’s doing OK,” Sorkin said, “as well as one could expect someone to be OK when they know they’re going to die in prison.”

Madoff has cut back on his contacts with the news media, not responding to multiple emails from CNBC ahead of the 10th anniversary of his arrest on Dec. 11, 2008. In a 2013 interview at the prison, he said life behind bars was proving to be less stressful than life on Wall Street.

“It’s kind of like being in the Army,” he said, “only you’re not worried about getting killed.”

But in a 2015 email, he wrote, “I’m hanging in there. I miss my family terribly. How on earth did I get myself into this nightmare?”

Trade frictions between the world’s two largest economies go well beyond the parameters of imports and exports. Washington has been attempting to negotiate with Beijing about issues like forced tech transfers and intellectual property theft, but there’s a growing sense among international analysts that talks may also be touching on other deep-rooted issues in their relationship, particularly on the national security and military front. The ongoing spat is a reflection of great power rivalries, p

Trade frictions between the world’s two largest economies go well beyond the parameters of imports and exports.

Washington has been attempting to negotiate with Beijing about issues like forced tech transfers and intellectual property theft, but there’s a growing sense among international analysts that talks may also be touching on other deep-rooted issues in their relationship, particularly on the national security and military front.

The ongoing spat is a reflection of great power rivalries, political scientist Joseph Nye wrote in a Project Syndicate editorial last month: “It is much more than a typical trade dispute like, say, America’s recent clash with Canada over access to that country’s dairy market.”

Many economists have pointed out that the current dispute is more of a tech war than a tariff war as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration targets China’s technology sector practices. Beijing’s militarization of the South China Sea and the sovereignty of Taiwan could also be influencing negotiations.

The “Made in China 2025” plan is Beijing’s industrial policy to invest heavily in high-end technologies such as artificial intelligence in a bid to catch up with rivals like the U.S. and Germany. The analysts’ comments follow Trump and Xi’s agreement over the weekend at the G-20 meeting in Argentinato put their bilateral trade war on pause momentarily. China is one of the world’s top producers of ingredients used to manufacture fentanyl, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. After all, so

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may have put their tit-for-tat tariff fight on hold, but differences between the two countries’ views on technology and state-supported businesses will challenge negotiations between the two economic giants, analysts said.

“Staunchly committed to the Chinese economic model, Xi will continue to lend state support to targeted industries, particularly in technology under the Made in China 2025 programme,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at research firm TS Lombard, wrote on Monday.

Washington has accused China of forcing technology transfers, and tacitly supporting intellectual property violations and cyber-crime, but those issues were downplayed in official descriptions of the weekend’s agreement.

“Despite White House economic advisor (Larry) Kudlow suggesting that the two sides are ‘pretty close’ on an agreement on intellectual property theft, 90 days still looks like a short period for discussions on complicated issues such as non-tariff barriers,” wrote Zhu Huani, an economist at Mizuho Bank in a note on Tuesday.

“Whilst reducing (the) trade gap could be the easier part to begin with, China is less likely to make concessions on its industrial policies such as ‘Made in China 2025,’ which might hinder discussion surrounding technology transfer,” added Zhu.

The “Made in China 2025” plan is Beijing’s industrial policy to invest heavily in high-end technologies such as artificial intelligence in a bid to catch up with rivals like the U.S. and Germany.

The analysts’ comments follow Trump and Xi’s agreement over the weekend at the G-20 meeting in Argentinato put their bilateral trade war on pause momentarily. They would, according to official statements, hold off on slapping additional tariffs on each other’s goods after Jan. 1 as talks continue between both countries.

As part of the deal, China said it would purchase more American imports, particularly in energy and agriculture. Beijing will also exert more control over the flow of fentanyl — a synthetic opioid that is 50 times more addictive than heroin and has been linked to thousands of overdose deaths in the United States. China is one of the world’s top producers of ingredients used to manufacture fentanyl, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

But, “it is unclear how this [deal at the G-20] will resolve issues related to IP protection and forced technology transfers in China — it won’t,” economists from French trade credit insurer Coface wrote in a note on Monday.

After all, some are even jokingly questioning if Trump and Xi even attended the same meeting given the significant differences in statements from the two sides.

“There is reason to believe the two parties do not quite meet over the finer details of the deal: pointedly, no joint statement was released after the meeting. Furthermore, the statements that the U.S. and China issued separately showed material divergences, with the Chinese statement making no mention of the 90-day deadline on the threatened 25 percent tariff increase,” economists from Pictet Wealth Management wrote Monday.

Neither side referred to the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, Pictet noted.

“Given the differences in starting positions, with the Chinese side setting red lines around its state-led system, it is highly unlikely that the time-frame of 90 days will allow the U.S. to extract concessions Trump could present as a large-scale ‘win’ with any degree of conviction,” said TS Lombard’s Olcott.

—CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger, Javier David and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

As the company made abundantly clear at its annual re:Invent conference this week, its growth ambitions should have legacy technology vendors very much on edge. More than 50,000 attendees swarmed onto the Las Vegas Strip for five days of keynotes, breakout sessions, demos and developer training sessions. Amazon now offers 140 services, which a growing number of businesses use to run all of their core computing. Salesforce currently has a market capitalization of $107 billion after a 40 percent r

Salesforce has never been stronger or in a better position than it is now, CEO says after earnings 7:37 PM ET Tue, 27 Nov 2018 | 09:57

But that was then. AWS is now the profit engine behind its parent. As the company made abundantly clear at its annual re:Invent conference this week, its growth ambitions should have legacy technology vendors very much on edge.

More than 50,000 attendees swarmed onto the Las Vegas Strip for five days of keynotes, breakout sessions, demos and developer training sessions. Another 100,000 streamed parts of the conference online.

AWS took off in its early years by providing remote servers that any start-up or developer could use to launch a website or project. As companies became more dependent on AWS’ core computing and storage offerings, Amazon started rolling out adjacent products like databases, a content delivery network and a data warehouse service, and then began upgrading its products so they could be used in highly regulated industries like banking and health care.

Amazon now offers 140 services, which a growing number of businesses use to run all of their core computing.

It’s not stopping with cloud infrastructure, either.

AWS said this week that it has developed its own chips for artificial intelligence projects, following Google into the silicon for AI market. And Amazon said it will soon start bringing its technology into other companies’ facilities with branded hardware, stepping into the physical data center world of Cisco, Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

“A key theme that emerged as we spoke to many users and partners of AWS is that while competition is increasing, AWS’ continuous focus on newer products, services, and depth of features sets it apart,” wrote Ronald Josey, an analyst at JMP Securities, in a report on Thursday. “The announcements this week confirm this view.”

On Wednesday, Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies wrote in a note to clients that, “AWS Cloud momentum was evident with 3+ days still left in the conference.”

Thill, who recommends buying Amazon shares, estimates that based on potential 2022 revenue of $71 billion, AWS could be worth $350 billion on its own, a market value that today is higher than all but eight U.S. companies, including Amazon. Salesforce currently has a market capitalization of $107 billion after a 40 percent rally this year.

Investors shouldn’t be looking to a potential AWS spinoff, however. The $2.1 billion of operating profit the unit generated in the latest quarter accounted for 56 percent of Amazon’s total operating earnings, providing significant cash for CEO Jeff Bezos to pour into other lower-margin areas.

AWS CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC’s Jon Fortt this week, “I’ll never say never about anything,” but “we don’t have any plans on the horizon” to leave Amazon.

“Usually companies will spin off groups if they just for some reason don’t want them on their books or if that new unit needs access to capital that it can’t get by being part of the broader company,” Jassy said. “Amazon has been so just incredibly generous about funding AWS so aggressively over the 15 years we’ve been working on this that there’s really been no need for additional capital.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.25 percent while the Topix index rose 0.23 percent. In Australia, the benchmark ASX 200 slipped 0.7 percent in morning trade, with most sectors declining. The session in Asia follows a lower finish on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average snapped a three-day winning streak. Trump told reporters Thursday that he was “close” to doing something on trade with China but added he wasn’t sure if he wanted to do it. “Because what we have right now is billions an

Asia Pacific markets were cautious Friday morning as investors waited for a highly-anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentina, which many are hoping would help ease escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

In Australia, the benchmark ASX 200 slipped 0.7 percent in morning trade, with most sectors declining. The heavily-weighted financial subindex was down 0.79 percent while the materials sector fell 0.15 percent.

The session in Asia follows a lower finish on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average snapped a three-day winning streak.

“Markets have been choppy this morning amid varying views on the prospect of any sort of trade deal this weekend between Trump and Xi at the G20,” David de Garis, director of economics and markets at the National Australia Bank, wrote in a morning note.

Trump told reporters Thursday that he was “close” to doing something on trade with China but added he wasn’t sure if he wanted to do it. “Because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the United States in the form of tariffs or taxes, so I really don’t know,” he said.

Zinke said during an interview on Fox News on Thursday night that “I’m 10 for 10” in the outcome of investigations into his conduct. In calling for Zinke’s resignation, Grijalva wrote, “I take no pleasure in calling for this step, and I have resisted it even as questions have grown about Mr. Zinke’s ethical and managerial failings.” “While the secretary continues to project confidence, questions have grown since the election about his future plans, and the White House reportedly fears that he wo

Sec. Zinke: No one does it better than American energy 11:55 AM ET Wed, 23 May 2018 | 02:42

Zinke or his department have been the subject of “17 publicly known probes” since he took office in 2017, Grijalva noted in his op-ed. Those probes include one, since referred to the Justice Department, into whether he had a conflict of interest in a real estate deal in his native Montana involving a developer who is the chairman of the energy company Halliburton.

His Cabinet position makes him one of the chief regulators overseeing oil and gas drilling activities.

Zinke said during an interview on Fox News on Thursday night that “I’m 10 for 10” in the outcome of investigations into his conduct.

“I’ve had 10 investigations completed, and you know what they all say? Ryan Zinke followed all the rules, all the regulations, all the procedures. This is politically motivated. In Montana we call it B.S.”

Last December, Grijalva said on a radio show that he signed off on a $48,000 settlement to a former committee staff member who had claimed he was drunk while working. Grijalva, who denied ever being intoxicated on the job, said she had made a complaint of a hostile working environment after he moved to fire her.

“On the advice of House Employment Counsel, I provided a severance package to a former employee who resigned,” he said in a statement last year. He also denied having a drinking problem at the time.

His USA Today op-ed Friday said that “Zinke is embroiled in scandals and nepotism,” and warned that scrutiny of Zinke by the Natural Resources Committee “will only intensify if I’m chairman” of the committee in the upcoming session of Congress.

In calling for Zinke’s resignation, Grijalva wrote, “I take no pleasure in calling for this step, and I have resisted it even as questions have grown about Mr. Zinke’s ethical and managerial failings.”

“Unfortunately, his conduct in office and President Donald Trump’s neglect in setting ethical standards for his own cabinet have made it unavoidable,” the congressman wrote.

“While the secretary continues to project confidence, questions have grown since the election about his future plans, and the White House reportedly fears that he would be unable to withstand scrutiny on Capitol Hill,” Grijalva wrote. “Those fears are justified. Mr. Zinke has never even tried to offer an explanation for the sheer scope of his well-documented scandals.”

The congresman went on to say: “This silence is insulting to the American people, and given the Nov. 6 election results it is unsustainable. Continuing in office as though nothing has changed only shows how little Mr. Zinke has learned over the past year and a half.”

“He holds his job as a public trust, not as a stepping stone to his further personal ambitions. He has abused that trust and damaged the Interior Department in the process. The least he can do is step down and give his successor a chance to begin reversing that damage.”

Investors looking for a good deal in the bruised technology sector may be best served in U.S. software companies, according to an analyst at UBS. The last two corrections in the software group in 2014 and 2016 resulted in a pivot toward profitability-based valuation gauges in the midst of market volatility, analyst Jennifer Lowe wrote in a note, making a few select names appear relatively cheap.

Investors looking for a good deal in the bruised technology sector may be best served in U.S. software companies, according to an analyst at UBS.

The last two corrections in the software group in 2014 and 2016 resulted in a pivot toward profitability-based valuation gauges in the midst of market volatility, analyst Jennifer Lowe wrote in a note, making a few select names appear relatively cheap.

Asia markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, following an overnight bounce on Wall Street as investors await a crucial meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Greater China markets traded mixed: The Taiex, which measures the performance of aggregate listed stocks on the Taiwan stock exchange, was down 0.7 percent. Chinese mainland markets were positive, with the Shanghai composite up 0.43 percent and the Shenzhen composite higher by 0.67 percent. “Despite data on t

Chinese mainland markets were positive, with the Shanghai composite up 0.43 percent and the Shenzhen composite higher by 0.67 percent.

Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 see-sawed between gains and losses to trade up 0.29 percent as the heavily weighed financial subindex rose 0.66 percent. The energy sector was up 0.36 percent, likely receiving a small boost from an overnight jump in oil prices.

“Despite data on the whole being softer, global markets traded with a better tone overnight, with equity markets leading the charge,” Nathanael Hartley from ANZ Research wrote in a morning note.

Some analysts said strong Black Friday sales reflecting solid consumer confidence was one of the factors that helped boost risk appetite among investors.

Apple suppliers in Asia will be closely watched throughout the trading day after Trump suggested that he could place a 10 percent tariff on iPhones and laptops imported from China. Apple products are currently exempt from tariffs.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said it’s “highly unlikely” that he would delay an increase in tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on Jan. 1. His comments came days before the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where he is set to meet Xi for trade talks. Many investors and decision makers are hoping that the summit will diffuse trade tensions between the U.S. and China after each country applied additional tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s imports.

Apple shares fell nearly 2 percent in after-hours trading.

Trump’s latest remarks “sent a cautious mood to the market as a grim reminder that hurdle remains high in the forthcoming Trump-Xi trade talk,” Huani Zhu, an economist from Mizuho Bank, wrote in a morning note.