Boeing sells the 777-200LRF as a new freighter and third parties are gearing up for a 777-200ER P2F program, but up to now, there hasn’t been a -300ER P2F program contemplated.

The -300ERF would be targeted for the volumetric cargo market as opposed to the density-based market that is served by the 777F.

Deal said BGS hopes to conclude its study by fall. A potential conversion cost is not yet known.

Evaluation and discussions

“We’re in an evaluation period and we’re having a number of discussions around the world,” Deal said in an interview. The discussions compare the 777 production freighter with the -300 P@F concept.

“Is there a market where we would see both complement each other,” Deal said, “and, obviously, having a business case that works?”

Deal said the studies “just make sense. If you think about the life cycles of the 777, the -300 is starting to come out [of passenger service].” With the 777X due to enter service in 2020 replacing aging -300ERs, “that creates a feedstock opportunity,” Deal said.

BGS is looking at the conversion cost, the feedstock price at retirement from pax service and what the volume/payload-range will be.

The growth of Amazon or Alibaba in China might be targets for the volumetric-based conversion, he said.

Boeing previously considered a -200ER P2F program, but focus is now on th -300ERF concept.

Maybe Scott can help on this. I think the supplier’s Triumph Group, which certainly isn’t going out of business overall, but has/had a contract with BA for 47-8 fuselage panels, which it was trying to end. (It probably hasn’t/doesn’t make economic sense for it to do the work for just 6 planes per year. The contract termination was sometime in 2019.) Lastly, there are probably multiple BA options on this: 1) “Pay up” and get Triumph to extend the contract, temporally or longer term; 2) go to Spirit Aerosystems and contract with them; or 3) bring the work in house.

Everything I’ve read recently said the 787-8F would be going away—soon—in a couple of years. (Need the space up in BA Everett for more 67 or possibly 97 production! And, as with passenger 747-8Is, the freighter economics are now really mitigating against the 4 engine 47-8Fs.) Scott even essentially agreed with me on this a day or so back. Now, two offsets: 1) Volga Dnepr’s firmed/ordered 5 8Fs today; and 2) Muilenberg had a comment a year or two back about waiting till 2020 to see if more 47-400Fs would be up for replacement. So, the plot thickens. Although, there’s got to be a huge opportunity cost keeping that all that BA Everett space tied to just 6 47-8Fs produced per year.)