“Everyone in the industry should know that ‘channel checks’ of Apple suppliers offer largely worthless data. But every January, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper unloads a report suggesting that Apple is scrambling to slash production of its newest iPhone because of disappointing sales,” Daniel Eran Dilger writes for AppleInsider. “Every year that report has been false, and every year the tech media falls for it.””

“This year, Nikkei has claimed Apple is slashing production orders for iPhone X due to ‘slower than expected holiday sales’ the U.S., China, and Europe,” Dilger writes. “The report comes right after CIRP noted that iPhone X outsold iPhone 8 Plus, and that both larger models outsold the standard sized iPhone 8. iPhone X by itself outsold the now very attractively-priced iPhone 7, as well as the combined sales of all iPhone 6s, 6s Plus and SE models–despite being on sale for five fewer weeks than all of those other models.”

“Yet Nikkei reported that it thinks Apple’s production targets for previous models is unchanged, while iPhone X production is supposedly being slashed in half,” Dilger writes. “This is being reported after months of stories that suggested Apple couldn’t build enough iPhone X components.”

Nikkei and WSJ are tied up partnership. Nikkei’s own track record is more reliable and trustworthy than any American economic journal. They are also closer to Apple’s supply chain, in Japan and Taiwan. They are not Min-Chi Kuo or some other loose-mouthed analysts.

Apple is such an easy target to knock down thanks to their near total dependency on the iPhone. No confirmed sources are ever needed to cause the gutless investor rats to flee Apple. Actually, who can blame them when the FANG stocks are guaranteed winners every single quarter. Apple simply doesn’t have what it takes to give confidence to big investors. Or should I say Tim Cook doesn’t have what it takes. He’s certainly no Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos.

OK, Apple, if you can’t give loyal shareholders any hope of growth, then raise those dividends to around 2% yield. I’ll settle for that much.

It will be interesting to see what occurs in the next few days. In 2015, months before the reveal of the 6s series, AAPL began to drop. Many at that time knew the 6s wasn’t going to outsell the 6 series. By the time the December 2015 earnings were reported in January 2016 AAPL had already dropped around 26 percent from its ATH. After the first 6s report the stock fluctuated for several months and ended up down around 33 percent from its ATH.

This 2017/2018 iPhone cycle was different because analysts were expecting Apple was going to have an iPhone super cycle similar to the iPhone 6 cycle, and over several mo ths the stock price dramatically increased. When the late release of the iPhone X was announced this super cycle chatter pretty much ended, yet AAPL continued to rise.

So, today the Nikkei is reporting a 50 percent reduction in iPhone X, which is a higher cut than the 2015/2016 report. The stock is currently only down 6.66 percent from its recent ATH, not the 26 percent drop prior to the first 6s report. Will AAPL get absolutely demolished if Apple guides poorly?

I’m just thinking out loud, but if iPhone sales are poor then Apple needs additional growth drivers, and a fresh perspective. There has been a lot of talk lately about Apple buying Tesla. Tesla’s market cap is currently at $58.7B, and they just announced a goal to reach $650B in 10-11 years.

How can Tesla grow this big and this fast without a huge infusion of cash and dilution? Merging Space X could help, but Space is going to need tons of cash to aggressively launch the business of rocket shipping people around the Earth within 30 minutes of launch, and colonizing Mars/The Universe.

Some say Musk will have $200B in stock if TSLA reaches $650B. That’s a huge incentive to “get it done by any means”. Apple has the cash cow and Elon has the vision. Could they have a marriage?

Apple will be buying up shares at this lovely discount, lowering the shares available. When the steady growth continues the stock will rise to another peak next fall.
Amazing that a company this large continues to grow every year, yet Wall Street says it’s not enough.
Buy and hold long term has brought early retirement. Dividend will soon be double what it was on my original investment, and stock has more than tripled.
Short term people are freaking out daily while long term people are laying on the beach in Barbados.

If Apple wants to return value to shareholders, doing so by share buy-backs alone tends to be a bit hit and miss because the share price is greatly affected by factors which are beyond Apple’s control and often defy logic too.

Higher dividends will reward long term investors and the price of AAPL might be less prone to fluctuation, which will make it less prone to manipulation by speculators.

Of course it doesn’t need to be an either/or strategy because if Apple buys back shares which would have received bigger dividends, Apple will be saving more money buy not having to pay the dividends on those shares.