Scientists predict that the number of rain-carrying cyclones reaching India will come down by around 60% by the end of this century.

Lesser rain has been predicted for India, with weaker monsoons likely by the end of this centuryDaniel Leal-Olivas/AFP

Climate change, or global warming, has been predicted to affect the way India will receive its rainfall in the coming years. Simulation models show several years of dry spells and a shift in where the rain will eventually fall.

A team of climate scientists from the Center for Prototype Climate Modeling in New York University Abu Dhabi and the University of California have created models and simulations. The models were developed with the help of data that was collected earlier by researchers who were involved in separate studies to predict sea surface temperatures between 2071 and 2095. These models and simulations have now been used to predict the situation in India.

What they found is of grave concern since the country is not only a large one, it has the world's second largest population as well. A major part of the food produced in India, noted a report by Phys.org, depends on seasonal rains called monsoons.

Researchers looked at what are called cyclonic atmospheric vortices – also known as low-pressure systems (LPSs). Rain comes from such cyclones throughout the monsoon season and over half the rain India receives in its Ganges plains is because of these LPSs, which have been found to be affected by sea surface temperatures.

As sea surface temperatures increase, the location of where the rains will eventually fall is in turn directly affected. The team is reported to have made use of a "high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model" that can predict the distribution of LPS activity.

Results of the simulation were not positive – it revealed that there could be a 60% drop in LPS events in the Bay of Bengal. The results also showed a 10% increase in LPS activity over certain land areas. This means a dry mid-section in the country can be expected and rain in northern India will become more frequent.

If this does in fact play out as predicted, there will be serious implications for the overall climate, not only in India, but also in the rest of Southeast Asia, where a major portion of the world's population lives.