Taliban 'out-governing' Afghan govt

Dr Kilcullen the Taliban is filling a governance vacuum in Afghanistan.

stringer, file photo: Reuters

The Afghan government desperately needs to attain legitimacy from the recent poll to counter the effects of out-governing by the Taliban, a leading analyst says.

Dr David Kilcullen, a former Australian army officer and adviser to former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, says the Taliban remain deeply unpopular, but the Afghan government is very corrupt.

"I often ask Afghans 'if someone stole your goat or bicycle, who would you go to?' - they never say the police. They laugh at the idea of going to the police," Dr Kilcullen said in an address to the National Press Club.

"They say the police would just beat you up for bothering them, but if you go to the Taliban, you will get it back - it might have blood on it, but you'll get it back."

The counter-insurgency expert says what is needed from the recent poll is a legitimate government that Afghans believe has been fairly elected.

"If you don't have a legitimate local Afghan government to support, then you don't have a counter-insurgency campaign," he said.

"The most critical thing in the campaign right now is how this election plays out."

According to the latest counting from the August 20 poll, Afghan President Hamid Karzai leads with 46.2 per cent of votes, followed by Abdullah Abdullah with 31.4 per cent.

Taliban threat

Dr Kilcullen, author of The Accidental Guerrilla, says the Taliban is filling a governance vacuum at a local level in parts of Afghanistan with its own courts.

He says the Taliban poses a direct challenge to the Kabul government. He says the current review of the US strategy in Afghanistan is focussed on getting more foreign involvement, but the international community had neglected such areas as local courts and tax assessments.

Afghan's sharia courts are known for stoning of women for adultery and cutting hands off thieves, Dr Kilcullen says.

But he says 95 per cent of the courts' work is civil and commercial, including settling of disputes, inheritance and divorces, delivering dispute resolution and mediation services at a local level.

"If we're working on corruption problems to fix a government that people think is legitimate, that's one thing; if we're trying to make an illegitimate government better at oppressing the population, that's a whole different ball game," he said.

Dr Kilcullen says just because the Taliban is running a more effective local administration in parts of the country does not mean they should come back.

"When people are given a choice between oppressive but effective administration and anarchy and corruption, they tend to go to effective administration," he said.

Dr Kilcullen tips the war will involve hard fighting for another two years, to the point that insurgents believed it was better to negotiate than continue fighting.

That would be followed by around three years to transition to effective Afghan state and local structures.

"We would have to be looking at about another five-year period where we are there in an overwatch role to bail them out if things get more than they can deal with, so you are looking at about a 10-year commitment," he said.

Dr Kilcullen says he expects Australia will stay the distance.

"To my mind I don't think there is an indication that Australia is as likely to pull out as some other countries," he said.