Special Events

38th Annual Daytime Emmy Predictions

On-Air On-Soaps is getting ready to head towards Sin City (Las Vegas, Nevada) where for the second time the Daytime Emmy telecast will air live on CBS from the Las Vegas Hilton, this Sunday night, June 19th at 8PMEST. So to get us, and you, in the mood, we have looked in our crystal ball, watched all the nominated performances, series and episodes, and have come up with some good old-fashioned Vegas-style odds making in the major daytime drama categories!

The Daytime Emmys can be a tricky game and so to try to predict and make sense out of who will take an Emmy home with them takes some thought and a dash of good old-fashioned gut instinct. As we did over the last few years, not only will On-Air On-Soaps Michael Fairman attempt to predict the winners, but also he will offer his picks for who he thinks should win in each of the categories! So you get the Will Win, Should Win and sometimes, the Don’t Count Out nominee, plus some analysis!

Daytime Emmy predictions can also be challenging because (as the actual judges in particular categories have seen) you may have a nominee with a six-minute reel compared to a nominee who submitted twenty minutes worth of material. Then, there are those reels that feature a powerhouse scene, while the other scenes are lackluster or vice-versa. And, as we mentioned last year at this time, we feel there needs to be some required equalizer in the system moving forward. Perhaps a mandatory length of material from one episode, and if you don’t have that, then that episode cannot be submitted…. something to think about.

Now on to the awards! So here we go with On-Air On-Soaps fearless and fearful predictions and picks for The 38th Annual Daytime Emmy Awards, as we celebrate the tremendous achievements of the talented men and women in soaps!

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS

Nominee Handicapping

Colleen Zenk 3 to 1

Laura Wright 4 to 1

Michelle Stafford 5 to 1

Susan Flannery 7 to 1

Debbi Morgan 8 to 1

Alicia Minshew 11 to 1

WILL WIN: Colleen Zenk

SHOULD WIN: Laura Wright

DON’T COUNT OUT: Michelle Stafford

This year’s race for Lead Actress contains some dazzling performances from some of daytime’s best, making this a difficult race to call. Just who might cross the finish line and pick up the gold? Here are our thoughts: In a tour de force, once in a lifetime episode, Colleen Zenk, a thirty-two year veteran of the now defunct As the World Turns, gave the performance of her soap career, in an episode that truly was a labor of love from the writers to her, and alter-ego Barbara. Playing to all her strengths, the episode showed the vulnerability, determination, and fire of this legacy Oakdale character. But, there was not a dry eye in the house when Zenk recites her wedding vows, which includes a speech about her character overcoming cancer, and as anyone knows in soapland, Zenk battled oral cancer in real-life. So if there is a sentimental favorite, it is Zenk. But what she may have against her is that she is new to the party of lead actress noms, and her reel was the longest of all the nominees in her category. GH’s Laura Wright had performance after performance in 2010, and none more exquisite than the episode she is nominated for, where Carly has to say goodbye to her son Michael before he is taken to prison to serve a term for murder. Wright’s Carly falls apart with Jason, but then attempts to hold it together and be strong for her son with the news of his murder conviction, while then having to say goodbye to Michael as he is taken away in shackles. Every time we watch these scenes, we grab for the hankies and it is Wright’s mixed bag of emotions that have us shouting…EMMY! With this month being Wright’s twenty year anniversary in daytime, it would certainly be a moment to remember, if she were to win with her first Lead Actress nomination. Who can ever count out Y&R’s Michelle Stafford? In another stunner, Stafford’s Phyllis is beyond fed up, and finally gets up the courage to kick hubby Nick to the curb. No one does rage and pathos all at the same time better than Michelle, and she may just find herself on stage with the statuette. B&B’s Susan Flannery, is another possible candidate to take home her fifth Emmy! Giving Flannery’s Stephanie Forrester stage four lung cancer and traipsing through skid row, too… well that is pure Emmy worthy material and Flannery delivers. AllMy Children’s Debbi Morgan is considered a front-runner by many to win this category for her star-turn as a blind and pregnant Dr. Angie Hubbard. The reel was very short, and the monologue, while moving, was followed up by another short scene. Morgan is a powerhouse who left us wanting more Morgan, in comparison to the competition. But hey, Oscars have been won for under eight minutes, too! Finally, another newbie to the Lead Actress group, AMC’s Alicia Minshew, in the performance of her career, finding out that Zach is dead, provided another heavy emotional choice for voters. But we don’t think it can win against some of the others, in a year where every nominee is pretty spectacular. In the end….Zenk will be the winner, but Wright, Stafford, or Flannery could nab this, too!

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR

Nominee Handicapping:

James Scott 3 to 1

Maurice Benard 4 to 1

Christian LeBlanc 6 to 1

Michael Park 10 to 1

Ricky Paull Goldin 13 to 1

WILL WIN: James Scott

SHOULD WIN: Michael Park

DON’T COUNT OUT: Maurice Benard

This category is so hard because each of the talented nominees had a few problematic spots in their reels, in our opinion. Then, that opens up the race for someone else to sneak right by and grab the gold. DAYS James Scott looks to be the frontrunner here, and right behind him neck and neck would seem to be GH’s Maurice Benard. James Scott’s heralded performance for when EJ decides to end his life after his world collapses on him for all his skullduggery was masterful and poignant. I mean, who else can make such a bad guy someone to care about when he is about to pull the trigger on himself? We just wish James had a few more scenes interacting with people/actors instead of wandering around the DiMera home as a solo drunk. Not his fault, he did it brilliantly. And we could not take our eyes of him for a second, not because of his good looks, but because EJ was in such pain and Scott conveyed it to us. Benard, in the first scenes of his reel, where Sonny confronts Ethan for assuming he beat his daughter Kristina was great, but we have seen this tough mob guy stance before from Maurice. Where this reel really picks up steam is in the heart-tugging monologue where Sonny tells Kristina at her bedside that he is horrified that what happened to him and his mother has now happened to Kristina. All that being said; last year’s Daytime Emmy winner, ATWT’s Michael Park, has hit it out of the park again this year. Park’s portrayal of a man wanting to be with the love of his life, while trying to extricate himself from his marriage, proved to be another masterful performance and choice. It was in these nominated scenes that Park is a true leading man in every sense of the word. As Jack Snyder, he brings us to tears with his declaration of love for Carly during the lake scenes, and he dazzled us with his honest performance from the heart. We think he should win, but last year’s big victory probably takes him out of the race. Y&R’s Christian LeBlanc should NEVER be counted out of the Emmy race. He has won three times, and this year in heart-wrenching scenes when Michael tries to deal with the fact that his “wife” slept with another man, LeBlanc in just a few but emotional scenes, shows us why there is not a more highly skilled actor in the genre. AMC’s Ricky Paull Goldin is the sentimental favorite in this category and another true daytime original. Goldin’s reel was a real slice of humanity – not-over-the-top, no theatrics, just full of quirky humor and genuine emotion. But will the Emmy voters go for that? It comes down to the race between James Scott and Maurice Benard, with LeBlanc always a spoiler, and Michael Park the one who turned in the best reel! It’s a nail-biter folks!

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominee Handicapping

Jonathan Jackson 2 to 1

Billy Miller 10 to 1

Brian Kerwin 13 to 1

Jason Thompson 14 to 1

Doug Davidson 20 to 1

WILL WIN: Jonathan Jackson

SHOULD WIN: Jonathan Jackson

This race is a no-contest and that is too bad. On any other given year, these reels in this category were probably the strongest of any field! With that being said, this is Jonathan Jackson’s to have! Billed as one of the strongest performances in soap history, no one can deny that in the scenes where Lucky confronts Liz and Nik about their affair, that it is a true soap classic. Jackson deserves this one folks. Last year’s winner in this category, Billy Miller, truly surprised us with his pick for a reel and it worked! It showed his Billy Abbott; tough, tender, silly and romantic all in one show and Miller did it all effortlessly! Who does not love a good drunk? We do…. and nobody in the soap business did it better last year than OLTL’s Brian Kerwin as loveable loser, Charlie Banks! In scenes with Erika Slezak, (Viki) where Charlie admits he fell off the wagon (yet again), Kerwin was riveting. Jason Thompson is one of the most talented younger leading men in daytime… who can act…. we mean, seriously can act. This nominated performance for when Robin kicks Patrick to the curb for his indiscretion with nutty Lisa, was one of the most memorable scenes in soaps of 2010, and Thompson played all his complex emotions and regret to perfection. Lastly, Y&R’s Doug Davidson (Paul) understated and beautifully moving as a brother who watches his sister, Patty descent into total madness. These guys were all so good! But we are going with JJ!!

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominee Handicapping:

Tricia Cast 5 to 1

Nancy Lee Grahn 6 to 1

Julie Pinson 7 to 1

Melissa Claire Egan 10 to 1

Heather Tom 12 to 1

Bree Williamson 13 to 1

WILL WIN: Tricia Cast

SHOULD WIN: Tricia Cast

DON’T COUNT OUT: Nancy Lee Grahn or Julie Pinson

The Young and the Restless’ Tricia Cast, looks to be a lock in this category. But as we know, Supporting Actress has taken all of us by surprise many a time as to who actually is the victor. In scenes where Nina watches one son shoot the other dead, (Ronan shoots Chance) and the aftermath, Tricia Cast has a field day with the material given to her. GH’s Nancy Lee Grahn would seem to have a shot on the outside for her magnificent scene where Alexis goes off on Sonny as her daughter lays beaten to a pulp in the hospital. And, do not count out ATWT’s Julie Pinson, last year’s Emmy winner in this category. She once again delivers a heartfelt performance of a woman whose marriage has come apart at the seams. Will voters go for Pinson two years in a row? Just maybe! Her material is very strong. AMC’s Melissa Claire Egan, played one of Pine Valley’s best whackos in history as Annie, and she submitted a reel where Annie seemed saner and emotionally raw, a good choice. Perennial nominees B&B Heather Tom and OLTL’s Bree Williamson are always brilliant, but their submissions just seem to not pack the oomph the others do. Therefore: it’s Cast’s to lose!

OUTSTANDING YOUNGER ACTRESS

Nominee Handicapping:

Lexi Ainsworth 5 to 1

Emily O’Brien 8 to 1

Brittany Allen 10 to 1

WILL WIN: Lexi Ainsworth

SHOULD WIN: Lexi Ainsworth

The teen abuse storyline resonated across the board for teens and their parents, and GH did a great job with the telling of this tale. And they put this in the capable hands of Lexi Ainsworth, who as Kristina, delivered in spades. This is her award to lose, and we don’t see that happening. If there were an upset it would come from another talented favorite, Emily O’Brien, who made the perils of Jana Hawkes Fisher mostly must-see daytime television over the past five years. A win for O’Brien would be a nice cap on her Genoa City days since she is no longer with the series. AMC’s former Marissa Chandler, Brittany Allen surprised us with an excellent reel that in any other year could be a contender. We say, Lexi get ready…Emmy is coming home with you!

OUTSTANDING YOUNGER ACTOR

Nominee Handicapping

Chad Duell 2 to 1

Scott Clifton 3 to 1

Chandler Massey 12 to 1

WILL WIN: Chad Duell

SHOULD WIN: Scott Clifton

GH’s Chad Duell truly gave the all around best performance in this category in 2010, and he was a newbie to the series to boot. He stepped in at the most critical time for his character of Michael Corinthos, just as he was found guilty of murdering Claudia Zacchara. Duell’s Emmy reel was from a later episode where he struggles with what happened to him in prison in a moving scene with Andrea Bogart (Abby). The issue is: in the second half of the reel there is a scene with Maurice Benard in which he is reacting, where it feels like Maurice is driving the scene. That opens the door for another favorite son of daytime, B&B’s Scott Clifton. Clifton actually submitted a better and more fleshed out reel, in which his character of Liam learns who is biological father is…the man he hates the most, Bill Spencer. Clifton played all the beats with incredible subtlety. Finally, Chandler Massey, Will of DAYS, sent in the shortest Emmy reel of all the nominees in a simple scene between mother and son. Voters are most likely going to go for the talented Mr. Duell. We would have to give the nod to Clifton based on the reel.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

Nominee Handicapping:

The Bold and the Beautiful 2 to 1

General Hospital 5 to 1

All My Children 12 to 1

The Young and the Restless 20 to 1

WILL WIN: The Bold and the Beautiful

SHOULD WIN: The Bold and the Beautiful

Of all the submissions for the Drama Series category, it is The Bold and the Beautiful’s moving and stunningly beautiful two half hour episodes centering on Stephanie’s refusal to seek treatment for stage four lung cancer… which creatively also brings in the plight of the homeless in downtown Los Angeles. Spiritually moving, well acted, written and produced, these episodes have all the elements that spell E-m-m-y. Brad Bell and the gang, look for your third win in as many years for this one. General Hospital submitted the location MOCA episodes of Francophrenia, featuring guest star James Franco and his obsession with Jason Morgan, juxtaposed with a shooting spree at the hospital. There were many elements at play here and multiple stories going on at once, which make it a contender. All My Children’s truly soapy entry featured some good and bad moments in the trial of Greenlee for the murder of David Hayward, only to have the twisted doc pop-up very much alive just as Greens is being convicted and carted off for murder. And, The Young and the Restless puzzling submission featured their New Orleans location shoot, where for most of the episode we watched Sharon Newman walking around the Big Easy while Adam lurked. While it looked beautiful, the story, at times, seems to move at a snail’s pace. NOTE: maybe there should be a rule that for the Drama Series entry, they have to only use and submit episodes shot within the confines of the studio. Then we are judging on story, direction and acting in the purest form without all the fancy locales. It’s just a thought. Anyway… BOLD has got this one!

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Nominee Handicapping:

As the World Turns 2 to 1

The Young and the Restless 3 to 1

The Bold and the Beautiful 4 to 1

Days of our Lives 10 to 1

WILL WIN: As the World Turns

SHOULD WIN: As the World Turns

We tried to separate how much we were frustrated with the final episode of As the World Turns, and its lack of certain decisions made in its home stretch, and focus on just the pure script, words and writing of this episode. And we have to say, it had humor, drama, romance, and made us reach for the hankies, even though we had seen it a few times previously. The “Our Town”-esque storytelling, gave us a glimpse of every town USA, Oakdale, as seen through the eyes of Dr. Bob Hughes, who is retiring after decades as the town’s favorite medicine man. But who can forget these gems among some of the more lackluster scenes: Luke listening to Reid’s heart with a stethoscope to Chris’s chest, Holden and Lily’s final scene, or Casey saying goodbye to Tom and Margo. The Young and the Restless chose good old-fashioned melodrama with the episode where Chance is shot, and for all intent and purpose to those who know him … dead. Plus, the aftermath of Billy and Victoria’s wedding. B&B went with their two half hour episodes focusing on the plight of the homeless and Stephanie’s coming to terms with her health diagnosis of cancer. And Days of our Lives, sent in a show with tender and well-written scenes, as little Johnny is about to undergo surgery to remove his eye, due to cancer. ATWT is going to win their final shot in the writing category as a keepsake for the canceled 54-year-old soap.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Nominee Handicapping:

The Bold and the Beautiful 2 to 1

The Young and the Restless 5 to 1

General Hospital 7 to 1

One Life to Live 6 to 1

WILL WIN: The Bold and the Beautiful

SHOULD WIN: The Bold and the Beautiful

Interesting choices from some of the shows: but again it’s B&B’s terrific direction from Mike Stitch and his team in the remote scenes and storytelling of Stephanie’s cancer story and the plight of the homeless that should take home the prize. Y&R’s The Lady From Shanghai homage as duel “Lauren’s” battle it out and play a game of cat and mouse amidst the house of mirrors in the fun house, (and where Michael has to figure out who is the imposter), could be a dark horse. GH went with their Francophrenia episode with its location shoot, and contemporary editing style, while OLTL went with Part One of Starr X’d Lovers: The Musical. Hands down: B&B

OUTSTANDING SHORT FORMAT DAYTIME

Nominee Handicapping:

Venice 2 to 1

Gotham 8 to 1

Tasty Time with Zefronk 9 to 1

WILL WIN: Venice

SHOULD WIN: Venice

Probably the best episode of the year in soaps and it was not even on daytime television, but the Internet. It was episode eleven of Crystal Chappell and Company’s, Venice. Great acting, writing and production values make this choice a no-brainer.

NEW APPROACHES – DAYTIME ENTERTAIMENT

Nominee Handicapping:

What If – OLTL, AMC, GH web series 4 to 1

The Ellen DeGeneres Show 5 to 1

Driving Jersey 8 to 1

Hall of Us 7 to 1

The Clarence Update – B&B 12 to 1

WILL WIN: What If

SHOULD WIN: What If

We hope What If wins! The cleverest promotional idea of the last soap season was the webisode crossovers featuring the stars of AMC, GH and OLTL! Who did not love seeing GH’s Spinelli with OLTL’s Todd, or GH’s Sonny with AMC’s Erica? Well done and should win! And since OLTL and AMC are canceled, we will never see the likes of anything like this ever again. So let it be a reminder to ABC of what once was!

OK, so now you know who I think will, and should win on Emmy night. Now it’s your turn. Comment below, and let me know how you see Daytime’s biggest night of the year turning out for your favorite actors and soaps!

Lead Actress: Wide Open. Going with Stafford now but can see anyone winning

Lead Actor: Scott Frontrunner, throught Park or Bernard could take it.

Supporting Actor: Jackson, through alot like last year are so where Miller was seen as a lock the other reels are very strong and I predict people will talk themself into predicting Miller or Kerwin. I mean they are ages better at choose reels as a group that Lead Actor. If Jacob Young would of went lead he would of got a nomation for sure but cannot break in here.

Supporting Actress: Have not seen Toms reel, going with Julie to defend here, through Cast or Nancy would not shock me.

Younger Actor: Cliffton has the best reel again and should win. Chad has great first sceen in his reel. Chandler really took either Casey or David spot here on the list base on the reels….PS Frank should be disallow to select for now on for the reel he selected for Eddie Alderson.

Younger Actress: Lexi in a lock, maybe the second best reel behind Jackson and Molly Burrett was the only on close to her and was not nom.

Series: B&B a lock. Days Had the second best reel for series and got snub here.

Writing: B&B, but could be overtaken by General Hospital since Guza summited Sonny shooting Dante.

Directing and most other tech to OLTL for the musical episode. Hope it worth it frank….

James Scott is my favorite for lead actor! Chandler Massey for younger actor. I have been a fan of DOOL for 44 years and have never been entertained by a lead actor as much as I have been entertained by James Scott!

just watch the writing reels. Dena might win this thing. I think B&B will likely win but DOOL summit a very strong episode for writing (EJ/Sami explains to Johnny he is losing his eye, Bo breaks Hope out of jail.) can pull it out. I do not think Skin Row episodes are as slam dunk as Stephine mothers Death.

Drama. Series: All my Children or The Bold and The Beautiful. Lead Actress: Michelle Stafford or Laura Wright. Lead Actor: James Scott or Maurice Bernard (tough one). Supporting Actress:j Tricia Cast , Nancy Lee Grahn, or Melissia Claire Egan. Supporting Actor: Billy Miller or Brian Kerwin. Younger actress: Lexi Ainsworth or maybe Emily O’ Brien. Younger Actor: Chad Duell or Chandler Massey he had very realistic and yet not dramatic but touching clip between mother and son. Writing team: Days OF Our Lives or As the World Turns. Directing Team: One Live to live , Bold and The Beautiful or General Hospital

Thank you for the objective analysis of the contenders…. As far as the best actor category, I am hoping that James Scott will win… Oddly enough what you considered a weakness in his submission, I considered a strength. I must admit to not seeing the other actors’ submissions, but I doubt that any of them had the amount of silence that James’ submission had… I have always thought that James’ use of silence is one of his strengths. James is one of the best at using silence to engage the viewer. He uses silence like a prop to convey EJ’s frame of mind, often better than dialog ever could. When EJ was wandering around the DiMera mansion what we saw was EJ interacting with himself… his hopes, his memories, his guilt, his fears and his despair… It required some masterful acting on James’ part to sustain the emotion of that scene and the scenes in Sami’s bedroom, using only body language, his remarkable facial expressions. and his embrace of EJ’s pain … I, too, couldn’t take my eyes off of him. IMO, dialog and the presence of another character would have detracted from the scene… No words could express what EJ was going through in those scenes. What we got was pure James Scott and EJ’s pain… JMO

Honestly, I couldn’t care less about the Emmys anymore. The voting system is ridiculous. OLTL, the show and the cast, for YEARS have been treating like the red headed step child when it has been a critical and NOW a ratings darling. Yet the nods are absent. Seriously, Kristen Alderson has had leading lady storylines for YEARS and can’t score a nod in the young adult catagory?? Ridiculous. DONE. Over. no need to watch it ever again.

Listened to the show last night. Michael I always enjoy hearing you speak about soaps because you have such love for them. How I wish there were more people like you. Soaps are great entertainment and an American staple of daytime. That they continue to diminish is so sad.

Emmy night in Vegas is sure to be exciting this year. From the performing talent to the awards to the red carpet sights, it will be wonderful. Have fun and I hope many of your picks turn out to be correct.

Again, thank you for being such a great ambassador of the Daytime Drama.

<> “As the World Turns’” Colleen Zenk isn’t ” new to the party of lead actress noms” — Zenk was Emmy-nominated in the lead-actress category in 2002 (and lost to fellow 2011 nominee “The Bold and the Beautiful’s” Susan Flannery).

I’m predicting Zenk will pull it off because of the reel and the ease of following the performance in conjunction with story — and, specifically, “how” great she is in balancing herself in that episode. (Zenk mentioned her other consideration for eppy submission was “The Red Dress Episode.”)

If the submitted lead-actress episodes are actually viewed, and given respect, it should be Zenk who pull it out.

Does that mean it’s inperceivable for someone else? No. There’s no perfect formula, no perfect method to submitting. Zenk came damn close to winning this in 2002, and was considered the frontrunner that year. This year, other sources focused on Flannery and “The Young and the Restless’” Michelle Stafford. Due consideration to “All My Children’s” Debbi Morgan (who should have won in 2009) — people could tell she’d be in the lineup again thanks to Angie’s blindness. “General Hospital’s Laura Wright and “AMC’s” Alicia Minshew are at the end of the pack.

CBS has won this category every year since 1997, with three exceptions: 1999, 2005, and 2009. Though “One Life to Live” is the record-holder in the best-actress race — 11 of the last 37 years! — the other two remaining ABC soaps, represented here, have a pitiful track record. Morgan’s and Minshew’s “AMC” has won best actress just twice (1983 Dorothy Lyman; 1999 Susan Lucci). Wright’s “GH” has won it just once (1991 Finola Hughes).

That seems like a barrier. For Morgan, Minshew, and Wright.

The three CBS serials have each won best actress three times. For “B&B,” Flannery has been its sole representative in this race (winning in 2000, 2002, and 2003; she was the 1975 best-actress winner for NBC’s “Days of Our Lives,” its one-and-only victory in the category). With “Y&R,” three Emmys by three separate actresses: 1997 Jess Walton, 2008 Jeanne Cooper and, near the middle and a current nominee, 2004 Michelle Stafford . “ATWT” has won for Martha Byrne (2001) and Maura West (2007, 2010).

If ABC breaks the pattern, Morgan would be the one to pull it off. First-ever nominees — applicable with Wright — rarely pull off winning with nomination as a lead. (In the last 25 years, all of them who did were women from the top two winningest serials: “Guiding Light,” with five victories, with 1985 Kim Zimmer and 1998 Cynthia Watros, as well as “OLTL,” with Hillary B. Smith winning in 1994.) Otherwise, the statue will get retained by CBS.

But while Flannery and Stafford seem so damn tough to beat, they have been beaten: Flannery has won four of her previous nom nominations (one of those noms, in 1977, was in prime time!) — having not won in 2001, 2005, 2006, and 2009. Stafford has won just twice (including 1997 best supporting actress) and, despite appearing in the best-actress contest every year since 2003 (save for 2006 and 2009), she does what Flannery does: show how everyone is human, and that no one always wins or loses.

Based on the reels, I’ll predict Zenk. (Bracing myself for, maybe, being wrong!)