August 28, 2012

Heller hanging on over Berkley

Raleigh, N.C. – Dean Heller has
retained a razor-thin lead over his Democratic challenger Shelley Berkley in
his fight for a full term in the Senate.
The appointed senator has 47% to Berkley’s 45% with likely voters in
this fall’s election, not much different than the 44-43 edge he had in PPP’s
last poll of the state in early June.

Both candidates have consolidated support from their respective parties and
cut down on attrition to the opposite party’s candidate. Berkley has an 81-11 advantage with
Democrats, up from 73-18, while Heller has an 86-11 lock on the GOP
(71-16). Heller has also upped his lead
with independents from 45-38 to 50-37.

Berkley has a five-point lead with her gender, but Heller a 12-point one
with his, not much different than in the previous poll. But while Berkley has upped her lead from
nine to 22 points with the sizeable share of Hispanic voters, and from 34 to 62
with African Americans, Heller balances that out by turning an eight-point
advantage with majority whites to a 20-point lead.

The closest Berkley has come to Heller in any PPP poll is a tie last
October, but Heller has had a lead of one to three points for the last five
months, and his average lead in six polls since April 2011 has been the same
two points by which he leads now.

“The Nevada Senate race remains a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Shelley Berkley has weathered the storm and kept the
race close.”

Brian Sandoval continues to look strong about halfway through his term. 55% approve and 28% disapprove of his job
performance, putting him in a four-way tie for the fourth most popular governor
on which PPP has polled since the start of 2011. At this point, 53% would vote for him and 35%
for a generic Democratic opponent.

Support for same-sex marriage has increased four points in the last
year. 47% support it, and 42% oppose it.
The spread was 45-44 in August 2011. 80%
want gay couples to at least have the equal rights associated with civil
unions, up a tick from 77%.

PPP surveyed 831 likely Nevada voters from August
23rd to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an electiontoday, would you vote for Republican BrianSandoval or his Democratic opponent?Brian Sandoval ............................................... 53%Democratic opponent...................................... 35%Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q7 Do you think Nevada voters should have theoption of voting for ‘none of these candidates,’or not?Nevada voters should have that option........... 36%They should not .............................................. 43%Not sure .......................................................... 21%

Q8 If there was an election for the state legislaturetoday, would you vote Democratic orRepublican?Democratic...................................................... 45%Republican...................................................... 41%Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q10 Which of the following best describes youropinion on gay marriage: gay couples shouldbe allowed to legally marry, or gay couplesshould be allowed to form civil unions but notlegally marry, or there should be no legalrecognition of a gay couple's relationship?Gay couples should be allowed to legallymarry ..............................................................40%Gay couples should be allowed to form civilunions but not marry .......................................40%There should be no legal recognition of a gaycouple's relationship .......................................17%Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q12 Do you consider Shelley Berkley to be anethical person, or not?She is ethical .................................................. 43%She is not........................................................ 39%Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q13 Do you consider Dean Heller to be an ethicalperson, or not?He is ethical .................................................... 51%He is not.......................................................... 29%Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q14 Who do you consider to be more ethical:Shelley Berkley or Dean Heller?Shelley Berkley ............................................... 37%Dean Heller..................................................... 42%Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q15 Do you consider the average politician to beethical, or not?He is ethical .................................................... 21%He is not.......................................................... 63%Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 39%Barack Obama................................................ 54%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 56%Man................................................................. 44%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 38%Republican...................................................... 34%Independent/Other.......................................... 28%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 30%46 to 65........................................................... 38%Older than 65.................................................. 20%

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