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7/14/2011

UPDATED : Harry Potter and the Critics

What do these scores mean compared to recent best picture winners/nominees ? Hint : it not only looks nomination-worthy based on these numbers, (on paper) it could even win...(probably won't). For now, I think it will be similar to Toy Story 3 : rave reviews + stunning Box Office + last chapter-factor, but the Academy still might not be able to take it seriously enough to consider it for the 'big one'. For what it's worth, the film received excellent - almost identical - scores compared to The Return of the King...and that's definitely a great start.

Updated analysis : The film ended up - for now - with a slightly better RT-score (96 vs. 97) and a slightly worse BFCA-score (95 vs 93)...oh, well, you win some, you lose some...

For now

better RT-score than 10 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 90%, equals 10%)

better RTT-score than 10 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 100 %)

better MC-score than 6 out of the last 10 best picture winners(beats 60 %)

better BFCA-score than 6 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 60%, equals 10%)

better BFCA-score than 44 of the last 60 (last 10) best picture nominees(beats 69%, equals 5%)

Although these are all remarkably impressive on paper, it is important to emphasize that all this does not guarantee a thing (it definitely helps, though). If it were up to the critics, films like Toy Story 3, The Social Network, Up, Sideways etc. would have been crowned in recent years. Critics can't secure a film – especially a fantasy – a best picture win BUT they can be crucial help when it comes to the campaign and all those shiny billboards...

3 comments:

Let me first say that I really like the Harry Potter-series, but I feel that it's biggest flaw is the fact that none of these films can be watched as stand-alone-films. If you go and watch the film without having seen the earlier films, You will have great difficulty following it because you miss a lot of the context (like character introductions and explainations of surden objects like horcruxes). This makes the film completely diffirent from other sequels like Toy Story 3 and The Dark Knight, which don't lean so heavily on the backstory told in the earlier instalments. I personally highly doubt if most of the academy-members will have seen (or will see) the earlier Potter-films before watching the screener for this one. Which would effect it's chances considerably...

Actually your theory makes perfect sense, only I don't think the voters will give it this much thought. Academy-members will probably vote for this not necessarily because they think this is THE best film of 2011, they'll vote because a lot of different group of voters will think of this as their own : actors will probably love it because it features a stunning cast, voters who belong to technical branches will love it because the film is a visual extravaganza, all the British voters will think of this as their own, so they will probably vote for it, as well. Although this is also just a theory and obviously I can't say any of this WILL happen, but at this point I think the film will appeal to a lot different demos in the Academy, and all those combined will be probably (more than) enough for a bp-nod and a lot of tech-nods. I think it has a remarkably good shot at bp and technicals, for me Rickman-Fiennes-Kloves-Yates are the long shots...for now.

I don't know about it. Maybe it's just me but I prefer to be carefull with predicting such a big summer franchise-movie like that so early in the year.

Here are my counter-arguments to your points:* The Actors branche: It seems that a lot of films this year have great cast ensembles (Carnage, Contagion and Coriolanus come to mind) and a lot of the wellknown actors in those films have a lot more screentime then a lot of the wellknown actors in Harry Potter have (like Oldman, Thewlis, Gambon, Smith and Broadbent).* The British vote: There are a lot more academy-friendly British films, which the British voters might be more likely to vote for, Coriolanus and The Iron Lady are for instance much likelier to recieve the British vote considering that both of those have a chance of being Harvey Weinstein's campaign-frontrunner.* The Technical Branches: I'll give you these, but I am just wondering how many power they have within the entire voting body (eventhough the new voting system may change that)...

I also think that we have to take in account the fact that no Harry Potter-film has ever been eligable for any of the top oscar-categories (not even with the 10-slot system).

I am not saying it's impossible that it will get a Best picture-nod, I am just saying that I personally think it's a lot smarter to wait with putting it on a prediction list (atleast untill after the Toronto Film Festival has come and gone) and see how it's going to position itself in the race...