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Production in construction

Production in construction: January 2019

Economic indicators

15 March 2019

In January 2019, the seasonally adjusted production index in the construction sector reflected a decrease of 1.6% compared to December 2018. The calendar adjusted production index reflected a decrease of 3.2% compared to January 2018.

The results for January 2019 are provisional.

In the previous publication, the seasonal adjustment models were revised to take into account the more recent evolution of the series. However, these new models tend to produce seasonally adjusted series that are more volatile than those obtained with the old models, suggesting that some effects are not corrected. We preferred to return to the old models (established over the period 2000 to 2016) while we carry out the analyses necessary to establish a more stable model.

Périodicité

Calendrier de publication

Remark

Results are based on the survey about activity in the building and civil engineering industry (50M).

The attached Excel file contains an overview of indices per sector.

Results for the reference month and the two last months are provisional.

From the release of March 2017 on January 2017, the index of production in construction will be published separately. The deadline for publication will be one month and 15 days after the reference month.

The software Jdemetra+ replaced Demetra+ for the seasonal adjustment of the production indices in construction as from the release of March 2017 on January 2017.

The method used has remained unchanged. It is still the Tramo seats method based on the ARIMA models.

However, we took the opportunity of the software change to improve the models used.

We replaced the models based on a regression comparing every day of the week by models based on a regression comparing the working days of the week with the weekend days, which are more suitable for this sector.

This change may be an explanation for the revisions observed in the series adjusted for season and working days and in the trends compared to the previously released series.