Profile: Nate Karns has continued to rise in the Nationals organization over the last couple years. He's a bulldog type who attacks the strike zone with a power sinker. He came up and missed bats in his major league debut but also showed his flaws. Command -- especially of his secondaries -- and finding an offspeed offering that works for him will determine how far Karns can go. He tore the labrum in his pitching shoulder in 2009, so durability will always be a concern, too. With the addition of Doug Fister, the Nats rotation ranks among the strongest in baseball and it's not clear what opportunities for starters will be available, if any. So it's easy to see the Nats using Karns out of the pen in the short term, but he could also stay in Triple-A as rotation depth. In that case, he likely spends a few years as an up and down back end starter before settling in to the bullpen. (Al Skorupa)

The Quick Opinion: Karns has the potential to be a useful starter as a back end ground-ball pitcher who misses some bats. Given the addition of Doug Fister to an already strong rotation, and the emergence of Taylor Jordan, it's going to take injuries for Karns to get that chance. Long term, Karns likely fits best in the seventh or eighth inning.

Profile: It's not exciting for regular mixed league drafts or anything, but Nate Karns is probably only one or two spots back of the top five in Tampa Bay. That's a decent pitcher's park, and any starting rotation spot is interesting in the deeper leagues. Major league teams use ten pitchers on average and give significant innings to seven most of the time. If Karns gets the shot, and he should, there are other reasons to raise an eyebrow. He has velocity, for one. He tops 93 on average with a rising four-seamer and likes his hard, 84 mph curveball. After throwing over 100 breakers, he's getting good whiff rates on the pitch (13+%). Of course, his opportunity could still end up in relief, so we're also left reading the tea leaves represented by the 25 changeups Karns has thrown in the big leagues so far. The change only goes seven mph slower than his fastball, but the pitch also has slightly more fade and five inches more drop than his fastball. That satisfies about half of the equation for a good change. Actual results on the pitch are to come. Since Karns' curve was the second-hardest thrown by a starter last year, it's not surprising that it got a ton of whiffs. Maybe Karns can follow the lead of another high-velocity Tampa starter with an iffy changeup -- Chris Archer is pretty good despite a mediocre change -- or maybe he has a good change in him. There's a reason to pay attention to Karns this season in any league, even if you don't draft him. (Eno Sarris)

The Quick Opinion: Nate Karns may or may not have a changeup, but he should get a shot. Big velocity on the fastball and one of the hardest curves in baseball may be enough to pay attention, even if he's only draftable in the deepest of leagues.

Profile: Over the course of the season, no pitch improved as much as Nate Karns' changeup. He added almost two inches of drop, ostensibly just from getting comfortable with it and throwing it more often. That's a meaningful thing for the right-hander, since he's always had a great rising fastball and power curve as his strengths. He's 28 by now, and the fifth starter for an American League team, but he's a fairly safe bet to beat his projections with his arsenal and context in their current state. There's no obvious reason for him to have a homer problem, at least, and even though he's the fifth starter with some injury history, he's now managed about 150 innings in consecutive seasons and the Mariners traded for him to start for them. Maybe the ERA will be in the mid to high threes, but give him 150 innings again next year, and enjoy his production while he still has above-average velocity (which might not be for long). (Eno Sarris)

The Quick Opinion: Karns now is comfortable with a decent changeup that he can add to a power curve and a rising fastball, so he has the weapons he needs. Maybe the command isn't plus, and he's been homer- and injury-prone in the past, but the projections mean he'll be cheap enough to make the leap and put him on your mixed league team.

Profile: Coming off a season in which he pitched nearly 150 innings with a mid-threes ERA and high-but-manageable walk totals, Karns finished 2016 with an ERA over five and the sixth-highest walk rate in the majors. He also bounced between the rotation and the pen, ultimately making just 15 starts and pitching fewer than 100 innings. But it wasn't all bad. He struck out over a batter per inning (both as a starter and as a reliever) and his ERA indicators came in about a run less than his ERA. A .327 batting average on balls in play for a fly ball pitcher and a 69% strand rate will do that to you. Now with Kansas City, Karns will likely pitch in the rotation. Royals starters ranked 27th in wins above replacement in 2016, and the staff gets pretty thin pretty quickly after Danny Duffy. And at least as far as homers go, which is important for a fly ball-heavy pitcher like Karns, Kauffman stadium plays better than Safeco. Additionally, he now also benefits from playing in front of one of the strongest defensive outfields in baseball. If Karns moves to the pen, his strikeout abilities make him a candidate for the next great relief ace. Either way, Karns makes an interesting-if-not-volatile asset in 2016. (Rylan Edwards)

The Quick Opinion: Karns has the potential to produce hefty strikeout totals and decent rate stats if he can manage his walks. While a deteriorating fastball in terms of movement, which impacts the efficacy of his change, his curve is still excellent. An improvement to his heater would make me very bullish on him for 2017. Absent that, we're likely in for more of the same.

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