In relation to the transfer of Victor, this is not the time in his career where he should be interested in going to a club to help them build. Africans need to be a bit more selfish and I am glad Victor made it clear about his ambition when he rejected Milan in January 2019. At this point in his career, he should be selecting a stable club where there is a stable coach who is ready to invest time in him and mold him. When he has won a number of things, including club and personal titles, he can retire to Newcastle at the age of 27-29, when they have established themselves. Let them go for their English darlings, Rashford, Kane, Vardy, Abraham and the rest to help build their club.

In relation to the transfer of Victor, this is not the time in his career where he should be interested in going to a club to help them build. Africans need to be a bit more selfish and I am glad Victor made it clear about his ambition when he rejected Milan in January 2019. At this point in his career, he should be selecting a stable club where there is a stable coach who is ready to invest time in him and mold him. When he has won a number of things, including club and personal titles, he can retire to Newcastle at the age of 27-29, when they have established themselves. Let them go for their English darlings, Rashford, Kane, Vardy, Abraham and the rest to help build their club.

I thinking you mean “buying” club...Since Man Utd would be the seller in that instance.

Yes, thanks!

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Nonetheless, you act as if club’s do not take a LOSS on players on a regular basis...Reality is that there’s no guarantee Man U will recoup its outlay on Pogba, and thus has to make a cost-benefit analysis.

In effect, it would come down to whether a Man U wants to carry him and his expensive wages...Even if he is not performing optimally (or unhappy) or to sell him at a loss or discount and reinvest those proceeds elsewhere.

He is their most lucrative playing "asset." I'll be surprised.

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Meanwhile, football clubs are BLEEDING cash everyday and every week football is not being played - gate and stadium revenues, merchandise, broadcasting fees, etc. And if (eg) the EPL is not concluded, rest assured that Sky and the other broadcasters around the world (including little old DSTV back here in Africa/Nigeria) will clawing back significant wards of their cash. There’s a reason that many clubs are furloughing staff and proposing wage cuts. Thus, in all likelihood, spending will be WAY DOWN in the summer window.>

I agree. That was the baseline of my analysis. In immediate post-COVID (a.k.a this summer and perhaps January). Although I also believe that clubs will simply refuse to sell, rather than sell at a heavy loss. However, my position was, IN THE LONG-TERM, I do not think it will cause market-price to reduce significantly.

By the way, although its discussion for another thread, I do not think the clubs are bleeding as much as the media is making it out to be. Many have insurance, and whole tv money is huge for them, many also rely on partnership money--which has been paid at the beginning of the season. I think the real concern for them is whether next season will start soon enough for them to effectively survive next year and in the future. Belgium, Holland and France have all ended their seasons and their clubs who are significantly weaker, financially, than English clubs did not collapse! The English press simply want their darling, Liverpool, to win the league and what better way to do it than tell us about doom and gloom to make sure the season is complete.

I doubt liverpool is in the running for Victor. Why would they buy Vic only to lose him, Mane and Salah to the Afcon? Makes no senseThey would rather buy Timo Werner (if they buy spend any money at all) as contrary to the highlighted above clubs are bleeding huge amounts at this time as described by Gotti above. This is not Media hype Tottenham and Liverpool in particular have intimated that if the season is not concluded as normal then it will have a huge effect of their ability to do business as normal. Most of the big clubs make £4M-£6M in gates receipts and match day revenue per match meaning they will lose up to £24M if they had just 4 home games left to play. You say Belgian, Holland and French teams have not collapsed but many are on the brink and some have said they will take Legal action following the decision to end their leagues.The amount of money these clubs earn especially from TV rights are small potatoes to the amount earned by Premier league teams so losing out on the money is a bigger blow for premier league teams than for others. You will also notice that the German, Italian and Spanish leagues have not ended their competition and are trying their utmost to finish? Why do you think that is? They cant afford to lose out on the TV revenue at least even if many are resigned to losing match day revenue due to the increasing possibility and reality that matches may have to be played behind closed doors if and when their leagues resume.

In terms of the transfer market. It will be interesting. There are many posible scenarios...

Some clubs may rather than refuse to sell players may actively look to offload players to generate revenue. This will drive down prices and the big fish like Man City, Man united, Chelsea, PSG and maybe Newcastle will be able to pick and choose and pay bargain prices on many players. But then clubs that have enough money may hold their nerve and refuse to sell on the cheap.

Some clubs may change their policy and have no choice but to reduce spending and end up promoting academy players that may have otherwise gone out on loan.

Personally i think there will be very few major transfers compared to previous years and this may last for a few years while clubs strive to turn their fortunes around from losses made this year.

Also the article says its an 83m euros package, which means that includes salary and agent fees. That seems too low--in relation to pre-Covid market

Do you think post COVID fees rise or fall on average?

I dont think so. Most people believe that post-Covid, prices will fall. However, I see it slightly another way. The common sense is that immediately post-Covid, most clubs wouldn't be able to spend-- rather than buying low. One example is Pogba. United paid 85mm for him + agent costs + salary for 3 years. Why would United accept less because a selling club cannot afford to pay what United wants.Thats not United business, thats the selling clubs business. So in that situation, either the selling club is taking a loan to afford Pogba, or they wait until 2021 summer, when revenue increases. Many of the "assets" who are for sale, aren't "assets" clubs have simply stamped a fee on. Many of them came to the club with a certain amount of investments in the view of the club recouping that investment.

Then on the long-term, I suspect transfer fees will be around the same. I dont believe Covid will have an impact on fees, long term. This is not a situation where market has crashed based on 2008-like financial bubble burst. This is a circumstance where I financial crises was caused by a closing of businesses, which will open up at some point in the future.

Additionally, and this puts a hole in my earlier statement about immediate impact of COVID, most transfer fees are paid in installments. Almost rare to find a fee that is not structured that way.

Finally, a lot of money, especially in the EPL, comes from tv-money, which will remain.

So, I think in the immediate post Covid, clubs will be a bit shy about huge expenditure, but I expect cost to remain the same or increase.

BY THE WAY, what we should actually pay attention to are:

1. Player salaries--- clubs will be very concerned about giving players huge salaries. I expect clubs to restructure salaries, where perhaps you are paid 150k a week in salary and an extra 100k on performance bonus.

2. Player contracts -- Force majeure clause. Clubs will completely revamp how they write contracts now. They will put in place very string force majeure clauses and for instance, if a player is paid 300k, a club can even say in the case of a force majeure event, your salary will reduce by 50% etc etc...

I thinking you mean “buying” club...Since Man Utd would be the seller in that instance.

Nonetheless, you act as if club’s do not take a LOSS on players on a regular basis...Reality is that there’s no guarantee Man U will recoup its outlay on Pogba, and thus has to make a cost-benefit analysis.

In effect, it would come down to whether a Man U wants to carry him and his expensive wages...Even if he is not performing optimally (or unhappy) or to sell him at a loss or discount and reinvest those proceeds elsewhere.

Meanwhile, football clubs are BLEEDING cash everyday and every week football is not being played - gate and stadium revenues, merchandise, broadcasting fees, etc. And if (eg) the EPL is not concluded, rest assured that Sky and the other broadcasters around the world (including little old DSTV back here in Africa/Nigeria) will clawing back significant wards of their cash. There’s a reason that many clubs are furloughing staff and proposing wage cuts. Thus, in all likelihood, spending will be WAY DOWN in the summer window.>

I couldn't agree with you more. The transfer market will fundamentally reset this summer. Whether it will be for the long term is another matter..

_________________Form is temporary; Class is Permanent! Liverpool, European Champions 2005.

We watched this very boring video, 500 times, of Sacchi doing defensive drills, using sticks and without the ball, with Maldini, Baresi and Albertini. We used to think before then that if the other players are better, you have to lose. After that we learned anything is possible – you can beat better teams by using tactics." Jurgen Klopp

I expect that, like I predicted in my comment earlier, most clubs will simply not sell. No be by force. Clubs like Southampton are speaking to PE/Venture Capital funds for an influx of cash, but that too has its downside.

_________________

metalalloy wrote:

Does the SE have Gray, Mahrez or Albrighton on our team or players of their caliber?