India and China crucial in greenhouse targets: adviser

AUSTRALIA would be one of the developed countries most damaged by the effects of climate change unless it acted urgently, Ross Garnaut warned before leaving for the climate change conference in Bali yesterday.

However, Professor Garnaut, who is conducting a climate change review for the Rudd Government, said he was still not ready to provide "responsible" advice on what emissions target Australia should adopt when the Kyoto Protocol expired in 2012. There has been pressure on Australia to commit at Bali to cutting its emissions by between 25 and 40 per cent by 2020.

"I don't think we need firm and detailed numbers now," Professor Garnaut said. "Between now and the end of next year, the international community should be working towards the post-2012 arrangements."

Professor Garnaut said it was crucial for the economic powerhouses of China and India in particular to commit to targets for reducing emissions. As their economies have boomed, their greenhouse gas emissions have soared because of their heavy reliance on coal.

"The nature of those targets will be one of the very important matters of negotiation over the next two years," Professor Garnaut said. "If the world problem is going to be solved [China and India] have to break the nexus between economic growth." This hinges on developing cost-effective clean coal, or carbon sequestration.

Professor Garnaut said Australia had a vested interest in the outcome, as the phenomenal growth of China and India had boosted its economy. Average incomes have risen 10 per cent in the last four years as a direct result of the higher prices China and India are paying for Australian commodities.

Professor Garnaut warned the long-term future of the coal industry depended on the development of clean coal technologies. "If we can make the carbon sequestration work at a reasonable cost, then coal has an expanding future … If we do not succeed in finding economic ways to take out the carbon dioxide and to place it permanently in safe storage … then there will come a time when there won't be new coal-fired power stations."

Professor Garnaut said he doubted whether nuclear power would be economically viable in Australia. "One has to take into account all of those costs associated with community concerns; about safety; management of the industry, and they are real costs that would affect the commercial viability of the industry."

Speaking after he addressed the Queensland cabinet in Brisbane, Professor Garnaut warned that agriculture, town water supplies and the Great Barrier Reef would all be affected by climate change if the federal and state governments did not act urgently.

He said the insurance industry was taking climate change very seriously because of its potential to create more intense weather events like cyclones.

"Australia will be one of the most damaged of the developed countries if climate change is allowed to go on without effective mitigation," he said.