The Great Depression

Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A DiaryIt's all here, times change people don't
-the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector
-the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out
-Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then
highly recommended

April 01, 2012

A Dark Mood for Sunday Evening

Sunday April 1, 2012

In fact, the second go-round provides even more shocks and shivers as several would-be rulers face swords, sorcery and giant wolves as they vie for the coveted Iron Throne in this fictional land of Westeros.

Here is a link to our local guide to television for tonight, Sunday. As we often note, the clues are all around us to social mood, the trick is to point out what is in plain sight. When I was a kid, we waited all week to see what new cartoon or thrill ride Walt Disney had to offer. Later in life, we watched Bonanza or How the West Never Was. It was a social event to be invited to someone's home to see Ben and Little Joe on the new fangled 'color television.' The quality of that machine would have today's millenials falling off the couch with laughter but, our point is that the content has changed considerably. Ms. Jakel describes the Thrones Adventure and then the light hearted AMC romp, The Killings on the same evening. It was tough picking the intro comment, either the Killing or the Thrones cast trying to outdo the last sadistic amusement (really click and read the article.)

Our point of course is that all of this reflects the exact opposite of the social mood prevailing the onset of 1960s Bonanza, as well it should We have recovered from the 2008 panic, calm prevails, but clues about the social mood indicate it is in fact early 2008 when crowds spent $500 M watching The Dark Knight.

I attended an academic conference the last two day.s One presentation referred to the 2008 meltdown and the Professor next to me whispered, those were dark days. Clearly he does not believe they could return as soon as next year, or that a good sized drop is possible now. The VIX is broadcasting complacency and that is what I witnessed.

McClellan Oscillator

Tom McClellan was on CNBC recently and noted as I have that the market has been correcting since February 6. The fact that most indexes are stil up is probably a warning that when the correction comes it will be a bit more drastic, playing catch up, than most expect.

But all the indicators do not always behave the way they should.

Summation index NYSE

The NYSE Summation Index has been down seven weeks in a row, while the NYSE index has continued its climb. This means when the real correction comes, see last November, the drop in the index is liable to be swift and relatively deep.

Central Fund

The chart of CEF looks constructive. The last two days my succession of orders were filled under 22 down to the 21.50 area. CEF then closed up to 21.95. This again shows the advantage of having the orders in when the market drops, you know that Buy Low thing! The MACD has formed a higher low than its left shoulder in this apparent reverse H & S pattern. At top the dollar looks lower, having made a recent lower high. A drop in the dollar along with the current and recent low in the Hulbert index towards gold stocks suggests are orders were correctly placed.

We would re enter orders for HDGE and CEF.

It does look like Nat gas will go to 2.00, some spot prices are there now. The futures are an indicated 2.12. SJT is down $1.00 the last three days. And the MACD is quite toppy. We could have been wrong here, but with so many continuing negative articles as some firms begin making the fuel available, and all the negative from the White House on coal, this still seems interesting, You should have a profit in both HGT and SJT if you bought when we did.

Thanks for reading The Market Perspective

Dennislelam@gmail.com

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