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On Contact-Induced Grammaticalization: Internally or Externally Induced?Bernd Heine (Cologne)For good reasons, linguists are highly sceptical when it comes to predicting linguistic change.As has been argued in Heine (2003: 598-599), based on observations on some regularities of grammatical change made within the framework of grammaticalization theory, however, it seems possible to propose at least some probabilistic predictions on what is a possible grammatical change and what is not. In the present paper it is argued that this also applies togrammatical change that takes place in situations of language contact. As more recent research has demonstrated, contact-induced grammatical change is essentially subject to the same principles of grammaticalization as grammatical change not induced by contact.The question to be looked into in the present paper is the following: How do internal and external forces interact in producing contact-induced grammatical change? The data analyzed in the paper concern case marking in Slavic minority languages, more specifically expressions for comitative and instrumental participants (Nomachi and Heine forthc.).