Shifting Voter Demographics: America is a Different Country

As we head to the unpredictable 2010 elections, many pundits have been left scratching their heads and admitting that they really have no idea how this election is going to turn out. Nate Silver, today’s most careful analyst of election statistics and forecasting, examined a variety of indicators and concluded that there were more closely contested and hard-to-predict congressional races this election than ever before.

The biggest reason for this uncertainty lies in the fact that America’s electorate is changing as fast as the country’s demographic and generational characteristics, and in the process these changes overturn old assumptions about how politics works – and too often doesn’t work – in America.

In 1965 the nation was 89% white and 11% black, about the same as it had been during the previous century. Since then, high levels of Asian and Latin immigration have produced an America today which is 66% white and 33% “people of color,” a tripling of the minority population in only four decades. Remarkably, 10% of Americans are of Mexican descent and about 5% of the electorate speaks primarily Spanish. For the first time in US history a president of mixed race, although one who considers himself to be African-American, resides in the White House.

The second big demographic change is the emergence of the largest, most diverse generation in American history: the Millenials. Like it or not, this generation will dominate the political and cultural life of 21st century America as much as the Boomers did in the late 20th century. The Millennial Generation, born from 1982-2003, is sometimes condescendingly referred to as the “youth vote,” but it should be more accurately recognized as the biggest and most important new voting cohort in America. There are about 95 million Millennials, about half of whom are now of voting age. One out of four eligible voters in 2012 will come from this generation. That will expand to more than one out of three voters by 2020.

This is the fundamental driver of American political change: Every two years the percentage of non-whites and Millennials increases, a trend likely to continue in the decades ahead. Non-whites will grow from 33% of the population today to as much 50% by 2042. There will also be a rapid increase in the “mixed race” population, which might further complicate matters.

As these populations grow, a new political reality will take hold in areas most immediately affected, especially in the Southwest and coastal areas of the country. The power of these population shifts to upend conventional political wisdom was demonstrated by Barack Obama’s victories over heavily favored establishment candidates in both the Democratic primary and the general election in 2008

These demographic transformations are changing the political loyalties and beliefs of the American electorate. Democrats now have their largest lead in national party identification since the early 1960s. In the most recent Pew survey, only 15% of Americans claimed to be completely unaffiliated independent voters, while about half (48%) identify with the Democratic Party and 37% with the Republican Party. By contrast, in 1994, the last time in which a newly elected Democratic president faced a midterm election against an aroused GOP, the two parties were tied in party identification at 44% each. This Democratic advantage is due in large part to Millennials and Hispanics who identify as Democrats by a 2:1 margin over Republicans.

Survey data also shows that most Americans continue to favor using government to address their economic concerns and societal challenges. This summer, in a survey conducted for the progressive think tank NDN, a clear majority (54% vs. 31%) of Americans favored a government that actively tries to solve societal and economic problems rather than one that takes a hands-off approach.

Rather than being surprised every two years by the changing politics of a nation altered by a rapidly changing demography, pundits would be wiser to anticipate that American politics is going to keep changing and evolving every two years, and will never again look like the politics of the 20th century. In the shorter run, the operative question in this year’s midterm elections is the extent to which the rising elements in the electorate make their presence felt at the polls in November. President Obama, who is concentrating his final campaigning efforts on college campuses and minority neighborhoods, clearly recognizes the challenge—but also the rare opportunity—presented by the 21st century electorate. His success in energizing these newest members of the Democratic Party’s base will determine the still uncertain outcome of the midterm elections.

But the longer term direction of American politics will clearly continue to be driven by the demographic and generational changes now sweeping the country. And unless the Republican Party finds a way to appeal to the emerging groups, they may find themselves enjoying only the most fleeting kind of renaissance.

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I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?Pittsburgh Independent Insurance Agency

If everything you say is true, the Democrats should be heading to a historic victory in this election cycle.

Instead, well, let us just say that polls make this appear highly unlikely, to say the least.

Historically, the fear was that the poor could vote bread and circuses out of the hides of the rich, creating a society that was unfair to producers, and therefore doomed.

We are now at a point where taxpayers are a minority, and benefit collectors are a majority, and yet the public as a whole is opposing the giant expansion of government currently occurring. The expansion seems to be driven by interest groups - contractors who would work on light rail projects, teachers' unions, etc.

I suspect the public isn't that supportive of government services because the offerings are of such dismal quality on the whole that they are not valued by the recipients. If the bread is stale and the circuses are dull, even the poor are going to vote against them.

In the last few years educational expenditures have more than doubled but educational attainment has hardly budged. This is thanks to union control over the educational process.

Transportation funding nowadays goes to light rail systems that nobody uses, and bike paths nobody rides on. Government services are provided at tremendous cost that people just do not want to use.

If Democrats are to regain power, you guys have to figure out how to actually make government services worth receiving ...

The fact is that the causes that got our economy into the condition its in were a long time in the making going back 30 years. Again- picking sides whether you think Liberals or Conservatives , Democrats or Republicans have the magic key to making the economy great is a pointless endeavor because they both played a part.

Hasn't every generational cohort been to the left in their teens and twenties? Seems to follow the saying that if you're in your twenties and aren't a liberal you have no heart, and if you're in your thirties and aren't conservative you have no brain.

I recently read the results of a study that showed Japanese college students preferred socialism to any other system by somewhere in the low nineties percent. This preference dropped to the mid-teens percent just a few years after those students entered the workforce post-graduation (If I can find those stats I'll include a link later). So, we'll see if the millennials stay the course, unlike their Japanese counterparts.

Big Government is great until you realize it has to be paid for, and that there is a slowly shrinking circle of people that are actually footing the bill for it. And if they all insist on a European-style entitlement program, I hope they hurry up and bestow the same European-style working conditions on us actual taxpayers (6-8 weeks of vacation, retire at age 60 like France...how's that working out, 30-35 hour work weeks, virtually impossible to dismiss employees, etc.).

Millenials aren't necessarily going to favor the Democrats or be more liberal then those who came before.

If we have more recessions and depressions caused by terrible liberal economic (and social) policy, people will become more conservative because they will have to be. Being broke for no good reason makes things more clear and when the government "safety" net starts failing even more people then they do today (it will, the bill will be due someday) people will change their ways.

Just because more people may favor government interference doesn't mean it will somehow work. If something doesn't work, it doesn't really matter much if more people think it will work somehow, it still won't work. I really don't understand the trying and trying to make something that will not work, work. Unfortunately, it seems we have to teach every generation that liberal economic policy is unworkable.

Hispanics won't stay in the Democratic party long if they don't deliver something. Democrats cannot count on Hispanics staying with the party long after they should have left like blacks. Most of my Hispanic friends are already Republicans (not just this year).

If we as a nation cannot end these stupid and suicidal policies, it won't matter much if our country is more diverse, because there will be no U.S. to inherit.

Both "sides" or parties have both contributed to the causes of the ills of the nation's economy. Republican policies have proven just as big a failure as the Democrats. Its not a "liberal" or "conservative" issue.

I think this can be baked down to even more simplistic terms: Older people more typically want things to stay the same because they got their piece of the pie and want to protect it while younger people are more likely to want change because they have yet to receive theirs. In times of economic turmoil, whomever happens to be in power will by default get the blame- even if they had nothing to do with the problems at hand.

Lastly, most people really don't understand what the issues they're voting on anyway and are easily swayed by what they hear or see in the media and often don't do their own research.