Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

NFL APR vs. ESPN Week 15

Yeah, this is for last week. Better late than never? I was getting
this week's post ready, and noticed I never posted the week 15
version. But I still have the writeup on my hard drive, so here it
is.

What this is

A comparison of
APR's
Week 15 power rankings with
ESPN's
rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check
(both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The
number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and
ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+11)

Matt Flynn has now played 14 quarters of football for the
Packers this season. In 6 of those quarters, he was really awful. In
8 of those quarters, he was okay. And in two of those quarters, he
was really good. The end result is that in spite of a 2-4-1 record
since Rodgers got hurt, the Packers still have a chance for the
playoffs. But until Rodgers comes back, they don't really deserve a
spot in the middle of thepower rankings.

On the bubble:

APR drops the Chiefs (+6) 2 spots for taking the trouble
to demolish a really bad Raiders team. That drop may also be their
earlier wins getting less weight, which means their 3 game losing
streak counts for more.

The Colts (+6) haven't beaten a team outside the AFC
South since October.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-9)

Four of the Rams wins this seasons have come against teams that
are either in the playoffs, or in contention. But #11 is still too
high for an 8-loss team.

On the bubble:

APR drops the Buccaneers (-6) a couple spots after they
got pounded by the 49ers. They clearly still have some problems to
solve, but Coach Schiano has (probably) saved his job, at least for
this year.