The stock's at 26c, representing a 77.4% drop from the date of publishing. Owl please:

Thank you, owl.

When people ask me how I'm so sure about these con jobs, the answer is always really easy: Check the Regulatory Filings. This isn't rocket science, just the application of plain common sense and it makes calling the currrent bullshit scam over at Portage Resources (POTG.pk) just as easy.

The big news out of LatAm politics today is that Sandra Torres, the conveniently ex-wife of outgoing President Colom, has just been barred from running in this year's Presidential election by the country's supreme court. Check out Mike over at Central American Politics for more. The whole charade from start to finish has been an archetype TPLAC* episode in politics but I have to say that in the end, it's good to see the courtrooms stand up and be counted on rule of law. In the long run that alone will do Guatemala more good than harm.

So now barring a political upheaval of unheard of proportions, the way is clear for Otto Perez Molina (no relation of course) to be the next President. Make of that what you will.

I've watched the ongoing silliness from afar without commenting much, partly because for the most part it all falls outside the brief of this humble corner of cyberspace (possible exception the effect on gold) but largely because far better brains have been obsessing about it all and there's oodles to read already.

"And this I think is what we’re really seeing in the yield curve. Never mind twitches at the very short end — look at the speed with which long-term rates are going down. That’s a sign of pessimism about long-term U.S. growth — an indication that Congressional failure to raise the debt ceiling will hobble the economy for the next decade. Thanks, guys."

For those of you who 1) speak Spanish and 2) care enough about what's going on in Peru politically,this note written by Cynthia Sanborn, entitled "Leading a Rich Country" is highly recommended as reading material.

Since Stillwater Mining (SWC) announced its offer to buy Peregrine Metals (PGM.to) on July 11th, the SWC share price has taken quite a bashing, down from its U$22 level to the current U$15.50 or so. That's one thing that indicates shareholder dissatisfaction with the proposed deal, but what needs to be monitored more than anything else is the arbitrage between the two stocks. That's because (arb 101 coming up) if the difference in relative price between owning PGM.to and owning SWC reduces, it signals that the market is confident the deal with happen and the value gap closes. On the other hand if the arbitrage increases, it shows that the market isn't sure this thing is going to go ahead and prefers holding the less-to-lose-from-failure SWC than the more-to-lose PGM.to.

So how the calculation is done in simple bullet points:

1) We take the closing price for SWC for every day since the deal was announced (we use intraday for today July 29th)

2) We multiply the SWC share price by 0.08136, the ratio used in the deal.

3) We then add the cash component for the deal, of U$1.35

4) We then do the forex, converting the USD price of SWC into Canadian Dollars (CAD), as that's the currency in which PGM.to trades. We use the closing forex price between the two currencies for every day (intraday for today).

5) We now have a number that indicates "fair value" of PGM.to stock if the deal goes ahead.

6) We then look at the closing prices every day for PGM.to (intraday for today).

7) We subtract one from the other and we arrive at the arbitrage between the two stocks.

8) Finally, we put together this little chart:

What this shows is a slow but steady increase in the arb between the two stocks. Which suggests a market that's evermore nervous about the deal going through, as the current 22c arb represents a 9.6% gap between the two prices.....that's a lot in a world that will give a normal 2% to 4% arb on deals that look solid and likely.

The bottom line is that the SWC/PGM.to isn't actively in trouble yet, but the market is saying "look, this one doesn't have the fat lady singing yet". Worth a continued place on your radar, methinks. DYODD.

UPDATE: A few minutes after hitting the publish button on this, the arb moved to 24c (SWC U$15.44, PGM.to CAD$ 2.25). Just sayin'.

Also, let's take a line for Disclosure: No position in either stock and not planning to move into either unless something big happens, but I sold my PGM.to at CAD$2.60 a couple of days after the deal was announced for a near 200% total win and also reco'd to the subs list that they sell at that time.

On July 27, 2011, the Board of Directors unanimously approved a dividend whereby the shareholders or Portage Resources Inc. (the “Company”) will receive a dividend payable as a ten for one (10:1) forward split of the issued and outstanding shares of Common Stock of the Company pursuant to Section 78.215 of the Nevada Revised Statutes. Pursuant to NRS78.215 and consistent with the Company’s Articles of Incorporation there is no shareholder approval required for this action. The Record Date of the Forward Split was set as August 8, 2011 and the Effective Date and Payment Date is set as August 10, 2011. The dividend to be paid to the shareholders of record is payable upon surrender. Therefore, in order to receive the dividend shares the shareholders of record must surrender their existing shares to the transfer agent and will receive 10 new shares of the Company for each 1 share surrendered.

The effective date and the payment date is subject to FINRA approval and the Company will announce the payment date when such approval is received.

Further, as part of this approved action of the Board of Directors, the Company’s Executive Officer, Mr. Paul Luna Belfiore agreed to return a total of 230,000,000 restricted shares to treasury for cancellation prior to the record date, which would leave a total of 445,200,000 shares issued and outstanding as at the record date.

The dividend shares when issued will increase the Company’s issued and outstanding common shares to 4,452,000,000 common shares, all with par value of $0.001.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

PORTAGE RESOURCES INC.

Dated: July 28, 2011

By:

/s/ Paul Belfiore

Name:

Paul Belfiore

`

Title:

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, you read that correctly. As of next August 10th Portage Resources (POTG.pk) will have four point four five two BILLION shares outstanding, but only if the dumb sheep holding the POTG.pk stock voluntarily step up and surrender their shares. If you snooze you lose and that shitbag Luna is laughing at you from his window overlooking Peru's biggest casino.

Chile: The La Escondida strike now into its eighth day. This single mine is about 5.5% of world copper supply, so this is one that needs to be watched.

Peru's new Prezannounces that he's setting up a national airline. Hope he buys new machines cos locals are fed up with having either Lan or some jailed narco's 1970s Boeing cast-offs.

Argentina, and the Mayor of Buenos Aires vote gets settled this weekend, the run-off between incumbent Mauricio Macri and challenger Daniel Filmus (a Kirchnerite). Macri will win it easily. Cristina still wins in October though.

Back in April, IKN posted this note that showed how the estimates for cap-ex for the 75% Barrick (ABX) owned Cerro Casale bigbadmutha project in Chile had risen from U$1.4Bn in 2004 to U$5.25Bn. So here we are just three months later and according totoday's ABX NR, capex is shifted up to a cool U$6Bn. Here's the updated chart on the white elephant.

Back in April your humble scribe wrote,

"So anyway, it's now been fixed at $5.25Bn and it's hardly likely to change again from that number, is it? After all, they wouldn't underestimate and then revise upwards later on purpose now, would they?".

Barrick (ABX) (ABX.to) announced its 2q11 financial results a few minutes ago and at first glance they look pretty solid. So to cut to the chase and show a really way simple company development chart, here's how bottom line profits have evolved these last few quarters:

Fair to say that the U$1.159Bn reported today fits in quite nicely. As for quarterly EPS, that looks like this:

And to stretch this overly simple analysis one stage further, if we multiply those quarterly EPS figures by four to get an annual equivalent, then take the share price at the end of each quarter, then divide one into another, we get this price/earnings ratio that seems to suggest ABX is competitively priced right now.

By the way, the only change to that formula above is for the current quarter, as I've used today's share price and not that of June 30th 2011 (which was lower). To wrap up, to get back to that approx 12X average we'd need an ABX share price at U$56, which implies a 15% upside to today's price. Gold willing, that looks pretty reachable from here and so in your author's view ABX represents value on these quarterly numbers.

Cristina is there, Dilma is there, Juanma is there, Evo is there, Rafa is there, all of them and more (in fact, looks like only Hugo and Lugo are missing the party and both due to well-documented health issues) ready for the changing of the guard as Ollanta Humala joins the club this morning.

Still mapping the trainwreck, still plenty plenty more downside to come from this out and out 100% scam run by the worst sort of scumbags in the business (and believe me, there's plenty of competition in junior mining).

If you want a rundown and decent, informed opinion on how the run-up to Nicaragua's 2011 Presidential election is going so far, you could do a lot worse than check out this post by Mike over at Central American Politics, published today. A good digest of events up to now and balanced opinion on the thing. Here are two short snippets to give a taste, but the whole post is worthy of your attention so do it right and click through:

"A June poll in Nicaragua indicates that Daniel Ortega will win a first round victory in November's scheduled presidential elections. Fifty-seven per cent of those polled claimed that they would vote for Ortega..."

"Ortega’s definitely not perfect and his run at re-election doesn’t appear to be legal, but there’s no denying his support within the country."

A top analysis note by Terry Wade of Reuters today, the subject being that dude Ollanta Humala who gets to play at President of Peru as of tomorrow morning. Here below is how Wade's note begins and your humble scribe highly recommends that you click through and read the whole piece, as it's oodles more observant and insightful than the usual mediocrity you read on Peru politics.

LIMA (Reuters) – Peru’s leftist President-elect Ollanta Humala, who takes office on Thursday, has dared to move further toward the center, if not the right, than the man he emulated during his campaign — Brazil’s former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.Humala, a former army commander who used to scare investors with fiery rhetoric, won office in June after promising to govern as a business-friendly leftist like Lula.But the cabinet Humala has assembled, by nearly every measure, is more conservative than the one Lula put together when he took office in Brazil in 2003. That suggests Humala will keep the existing economic model intact while intensifying the fight against poverty that afflicts a third of Peruvians.

Just when you thought it had run away from you, Bear Creek (BCM.v) gets whacked by quantity of people heading for a small exit door and and gives people who care about fundies more than momo a second chance to get in at way discounted prices.

Not quite as discounted as The IKN Weekly entry point of $3.80, but still the $4.65 I just saw printed offers great value. Don't say you weren't warned, but DYODD anyway.

PS: Looks like Iwnattos at Market Narrativecalled the dumpage on BCM.v well and bailed just before the worst damage. I've always admired trader-y types, those with a better sense of the very-short-term than I, but I'm not a jealous guy either. It's just a case knowing what I'm no good at and avoiding it. Kudos, Iwnattos.

Disclosure: Long BCM.v at $3.80, just in case you couldn't be bothered to read the above correctly. Happens more often than you think too.

It took two days longer than your author thought it would (Monday was my guess), but today we have the markets finally spooked by the ridiculous ongoing Mexican Standoff hissyfit pissing contest between US Congress and The Hawaiian. Which means of course that Big Money will now reel in its underlings in the GOP and DEM camps and the whole mess gets its solution before August 2nd, cos if there's one thing more nervous than a million dollars, it's a million million dollars, Dr. Evil. So rather than watch the silliness realtime, your humble scribe is taking the morning off to go eat ice-cream with his daughter and buy something neither of us needs that'll make her look even prettier. Taloho, as they say down in Andalusia.

For some reason or another, yesterday I found myself watching one of those TV "gold debates" they do on the biz channels up there in the We-Think-We're-Developed nations and as if on cue, the bearish guy on gold trotted out the argument that it's all to do with the dollar and because the dollar (the denominated currency of gold, as he put it) was weak then gold, the "antidollar" or inverse trade, was strong.

It was the typical typical dumbass in suit that has no freakin' idea about what he's talking about. As you can see, the dollar has tracked up in all the currencies featured, including the strong-performing Brazilian Real (other here are Japan's Yen and The Euro). As this next chart shows, it even works on a 12 month chart, with only the Braz Real putting up any sort of resistance to the norm...but gold's still up there.

So what does it mean when ALL currencies are weak against gold? Yes, it could be a bubble in theory, but I highly doubt that. People aren't (just) running away from the dollar, they're running away from all currencies that only have promises or nuclear weapons to back them up, and when the buying is led by world Central Banks and not the cud-chewing public it's most likely that the trend is still your friend on this one.

7/26/11

Brent Cook appeared on BNN TV today and talked about a subject we've been following fairly closely here recently, namely the "smearing" of drill results. That's the way the BS end of the junior mining world will try to make out they have more economic rock than is actually the case and in the process pull the wool over sheep eyes (hopefully, that category doesn't include you, kind reader).

Anyway, it's good instructive stuff and Cook even uses one of our fave smear-merchants, the Casey Research pumped Bayfield Ventures (BYV.v), as one of his examples.Go see the video on this link right here and learn a bit more than Lobito would want you to know.

"Economists see 20 percent chance of new recession in the next year -- Reuters poll."

So let's get this one straight, shall we? A whole bunch of people with an abysmal track record of predicting the future think that there's not going to be a recession in the next 12 months, but just in case there is a recession they're covering their overpaid fat asses and saying there's a chance of one, which will then give them the opportunity of saying "toldyaso" later.

And we pay these people.

And we pay reporters to report and do polls on what these people think.

Or is the July 2011 Casey Research advice still good? After all you did say that:

"We believe the first pass resource will grow rapidly and continue to see the recent sell-off as an opportunity."

Or pray tell, Mr. James, does the fact that the Pres/CEO of EAS.v, Michael Hawkins, has resigned this morning change anything?

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - July 26, 2011) - East Asia Minerals Corporation (TSX VENTURE:EAS - News) announces changes to its management structure, effective immediately. Michael Hawkins has resigned as CEO-President-Director of East Asia, and is replaced by yada yada continueshere

Mind you, it's hardly important, is it Lobito? After all it's only a 56% loss 57.7% loss (updated after the bell) in the three months that you've been reco'ing this stock and these minor details are best forgotten round Casey Research, aren't they? So just take the advice of your controller at Casey, deny everything and never apologize. It's the American Way after all.

Petrobras plans to double oil output by 2015 and exit debt market in 10 years

Brazil’s government managed Petrobras said its plan to more than double oil output will boost cash flow and eliminate the need to tap debt markets after about 10 years. Profits from oil sales will be enough to cover operating and debt costs starting in about 10 years, said Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa.

For sure that sounds smart cos going overboard with debt and all that isn't a good thing, correct Mr. Obama? But the flipside to that is a Petrobras (PBR) that's not going to care much about bottom line profits while it gets its burden lowered. Which reminded me ofthese words posted in 2008 and then August of 2009 by yours truly:

"It's at this point the plain, boring, simple fact that Petrobras is a state run company needs emphasizing. Bottom line results are not the be-all-and-end-all of PBR's corporate philosophy. Never have been and never will be. Do you honestly believe that the company will continue to pay enormous dividends to foreign shareholders while at the same time taking out massive debt lines to pay for the capex? If so, you are in for a rude awakening. "So I'm still neutral on Petrobras stock. I'm reasonably bullish on the company and what it will do for Brazil in the long term future, but because shareholders are not the raison d'etre of PBR there's no reason why you or I should prefer it over CVX, COP, XOM or whatever other big oil strikes your fancy."

The original piece was entitled, "Petrobras: Great for Brazil, not so great for shareholders". So check how PBR has done in relation to big world oil plays like XOM and COP on that chart above and consider that a dumbass spoutmouth blogger got it right while the dude in NYC that got his new Porsche funded by you was insisting on the utter future crunchy wonderfulness of PBR all that time. And DYO freakin' DD one time.

7/25/11

This evening the last pieces were officially put into place and we have the whole of the new Ministerial cabinet that starts work when Ollanta Humala becomes President on July 28th, just three days away. Here we gowith the list:

Of all those, the one that should concern foreigners looking in the most is the appointment of Miguel Castilla as FinMin and it's one that the markets have already applauded. As for the most important minister in the new Ollanta government, that one's easy. It's whoever succeeds Castilla in his post, so give that a year or 18 months to happen.

So here's this week's freebie offer. Click hereto order your free gratis for nothing (no credit card details, no stupid personal questions, just a simple "name and job" form) e-book all about getting the most out of Twitter for business (and although i was skeptical personally, gotta say I use Twitter a lot these days and find it fun...here's a link to my a/c fwiw).

Anyway, back to the point here. You get smart on Twitter and I get some commish for sending you to the page. Deal! Do it now.

Learn how to use Twitter to extend your reach, create buzz, listen to and network with your customers and prospects.

Twitter is one of the most powerful social networks for your business. Why? Because it is a relationship building and maintenance tool. In this practical, how-to eBook you'll learn specifically how to twitter for marketing, PR and customer service. You will learn how to use Twitter to:

With decently sourced jungledrum rumours and heresay and whispers and all that jazz saying the Continental Gold (CNL.to) is about to release a 43-101 resource count for its Buritica project in Colombia of three million ounces of contained gold, your author has been asked by third parties to consider valuing those ounces in situ. Here's a quick calculation table that assumes the following:

Tonight's closing price of CAD$7.53, as well as other prices up and down the scale for comparative purposes

U$1 = CAD$0.95

We also back out the current working capital at CNL.to, assumed at a round U$100m and once all that's cone here's the chart that your humble scribe's XLS spits out:

So with all those assumptions, especially the loose-lipped Australian one about the resource number, we're pricing up those underground ounces at U$250 a pop. Waddya say Ari? That seems expensive to you too?

...and told everyone that it was "the next Ventana Gold" without even understanding the first thing about the drill results it published back then?

Well it's not.

The last nail in this dog's coffincame this morning, with the publication of the remaining holes in West's Hail Mary pass, the Dosquebradas zone at the site. Ain't going nowhere guys, not with the grades you found.

So the only question remaining is to why why it always falls to IKN to call bullshit on the snake-oil salesmen of this world such as James West? C'mon guys, somebody else wanna do this job too?

7/24/11

Your humble scribe won't be around much til Monday evening earliest. Got trips to make and horizons to stare upon. We leave you in the capable hands of Jack:

"Isn't it true that you start your life a sweet child, believing in everything under your father's roof? Then comes the day of the Laodiceans, when you know you are wretched and miserable and poor and blind and naked, and with the visage of a gruesome, grieving ghost you go shuddering through nightmare life."

Hey, you know those really annoying relatives, typically an uncle or an aunt or a cousin you don't see that often, that tell you something about their take on the markets even though they don't have the first freakin' clue about the underlying causes or the merest inkling of how money flows, then when their call comes to pass give it "Told you so...told you so didn't I?", either for weeks on end on the phone or in mails, or every single Christmas time?

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