I. Introduction

One of the main reasons that we are on the brink of one of the greatest global catastrophes ever known to human civilization is because people do not have a clear picture of what is happening in the world.

“The chorus of denunciations of the New Hitlers in Teheran and the threat they pose to survival has been marred by a few voices from the back rooms. Former Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy recently warned that an Israeli attack on Iran ‘could have an impact on us for the next 100 years.’” - Noam Chomsky, August 6, 2008

“But even with the help of the Israelis - especially with the help of the Israelis! - we couldn't defeat the Iranians, the 'Arabs', the world of Islam or the whole Third World if it should turn against us. We [the CIA] have reason to believe that Soviet strategists well understand this, and that the Third World War that they envision will be one of ourselves against shapeless forces of the Third World, with Soviet Russia ostensibly aloof from it... in their version of the Third World War the United States would be forced into a variety of situations in which it would feel compelled to play the role of a powerful nation but, for all the world to see on it television sets, it would in fact, be powerless." - Miles Copeland, Jr., “The Game Player: Confessions of the CIA's Original Political Operative”, London: Aurum Press, 1989.

II. All the World’s a Stage

The following is a static Map of World Conflicts as of the end of August 2013. Interactive map available at: conflictmap.org

“Greenspan, 81, who served as chairman of the US Federal Reserve for almost two decades, writes: 'I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.'”

Below is a map showing the Major Oil Trade Movements in millions of tonnes for 2012. An excellent interactive map which shows the top 10 oil producers and consumers along with oil movements across the globe is also available at “Oil: Key Players and Movements”.

“…but undercover the war for energy resources in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia intensified, and they had the neo-con masterplan, which incredibly is being implemented now, which is to destabilize this ‘Arc of Instability,’ this is Pentagon-coined, of course, from the Maghreb through Northern Africa across the Middle East and all the way to Central Asia via Afghanistan/Pakistan – which is the intersection between Central Asia and South Asia – up to the Chinese border in Xinjiang.

“So they needed to implement their strategy, which was conceptionalized finally after 9/11 – this is the Pentagon’s ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ doctrine…

“…and meanwhile in Central Asia the United States is trying to re-organize itself because suddenly they have noticed that they are losing terrain to who else? China and Russia. This in terms of oil and gas deals between China and Russia themselves, between Turkmenistan and China, between all these players and Iran as well – Russia and China have very close cooperation with Iran in their oil and gas fields.”

“Iran not only possesses massive oil reserves and an economic, political, and militarily strategic location in relation to Russia and China, it also boasts a population of 76 million….

“With frank honesty, the report opens by declaring Iran a confounding nation that undermines America's interests and influence in the Middle East. Not once is it mentioned that the Islamic Republic poses any direct threat to the security of the United States itself. In fact, Iran is described as a nation intentionally avoiding provocations that would justify military operations to be conducted against it.

“Iran's motivations are listed as being ideological, nationalistic, and security driven - very understandable considering the nations to its east and west are currently occupied by invading armies.”

The following two maps show the approximate locations of U.S. Military Bases in South-Central Asia and the Middle East, and some of the Existing and Proposed Oil and Gas Pipelines.

“Saudi Arabia and Qatar are paying salaries to rebel forces fighting in the Syrian revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, an Arab diplomat said on Saturday. ‘The payment has been going on for months and the agreement was made on April 2 [2012] by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with logistical organization from Turkey where some Free Syrian Army factions are based,’ said the source, who requested anonymity. “

“The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plan was a ‘direct slap in the face’ to Qatar's plans. No wonder Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, in a failed attempt to bribe Russia to switch sides, told President Vladmir Putin that ‘whatever regime comes after’ Assad, it will be ‘completely’ in Saudi Arabia's hands and will ‘not sign any agreement allowing any Gulf country to transport its gas across Syria to Europe and compete with Russian gas exports’, according to diplomatic sources. When Putin refused, the Prince vowed military action.”

The following three maps show the location of the Proposed Iran-Iraq-Syria Gas Pipeline - marked in yellow in the first and by a dashed line in the second - and the Location of the South Pars Gas Field - the big red patch right in the middle of the Persian Gulf, just north of Qatar. It is important to note that this is the largest discovered gas field in the world, dwarfing all others in comparison (see table below).

V. The Shia Crescent and the Levant

This pipeline connecting Iran, Iraq, and Syria is planned to be constructed along the Shia Crescent, “the notionally crescent-shaped region of the Middle East where the majority population is Shia or where there is a strong Shia minority in the population.” It is important to note that large Shia “minorities also exist in Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India and the UAE”.

Some have gone as far as to say that this connection, common religion, alliance if you wish, will be broken once the dust settles on the Syrian civil war, and that Iran will be “forced out” of the Levant, “also known as the region of Syria or the Eastern Mediterranean.” A gargantuan task(2) to be sure:

“Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel’s primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan.” - “A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties”, by Oded Yinon (pdf)

Below you will find two maps of the Levant, and a map showing the change in the Political Landscape of the Middle East that might take place if the attempt to destroy the Shia Crescent is successful.

VI. Israel and Turkey and Supplying Europe With Energy

Considering that we are a fossil-fuel based society that has reached its maximum global rate of petroleum extraction, peak oil, the players in this conflict have not just been limited to those mentioned above. With natural gas picking up some of the slack and supplying more of our energy needs, countries with access to and the need for this resource are now heavily invested in this conflict, two of the most influential players from the Middle East being Israel and Turkey.

“Mr. Fischer is convinced that Europe’s energy shortages last January [2008], caused by a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas, were the turning point for the new European gas pipeline. Called Nabucco and stretching for 2,050 miles, the new pipeline is expected to cost 8 billion euros ($11.4 billion). Europe cannot wait for another crisis to begin to diversify its suppliers, he argues.”

Below you will find two maps; the first is a Map of the Proposed Nabucco Gas Pipeline, the objective of the project being to “connect the European Union better to the natural gas sources in the Caspian Sea and the Middle East regions.” The second map shows the “current [2012] situation in the southern gas corridor” with the Proposed Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) marked in red, the purpose of this pipeline is the same as that of the proposed Nabucco pipeline, to help Europe diversify its energy supply.

“Instead of being an energy-scarce nation amid Middle East oil giants, many of them hostile, Israel now faces a future as a fuel producer in its own right—likely as an exporter and supplier to some of its neighbors, a development that could dramatically alter the region's geopolitics….

“‘This is going to change the overall way of the economy of Israel,’ says Shaul Zemach, director general of Israel's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources. ‘It's like a domino—it's going to have a domino effect on all of the markets.’ Quite simply, he said, it's a ‘game changer.’”

“The group has said export options include building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, a pipeline to a neighbouring country, or even bringing in a new technology known as a floating LNG vessel, which alone would cost $3 billion to $4 billion to construct….

“The forecast came as Israel, long reliant on energy imports, struggles to find the balance between how much gas to keep and how much to export.”

“…Lebanon believes it also has a claim to the Leviathan field. The countries are technically at war and do not recognise either land or sea borders. Israel has simply unilaterally declared its maritime boundaries with Lebanon. Based on its boundaries on land, Israel established a maritime zone that veers well to the north, an area that encompasses all the known major gas fields….

“Shmuel Bar, a director at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, said borders are ‘a matter of agreement between countries, and for countries that don't agree to submit themselves to law, then the whole issue of international law isn't very relevant.’ Lebanon's Shiite movement, Hezbollah, and its primary backer, Iran, on the other hand, have no doubt as to who owns what. Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Qazanfar Roknabadi, went so far as to claim in November that most of the Leviathan find belongs to Lebanon.

“Israeli officials bristled at such suggestions. Israel's minister of national infrastructure, Uzi Landau, responded: ‘We will not hesitate to use our force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law.’…

“Israel is also mulling plans to sell its gas to Europe, possibly through Cyprus or via a pipeline to Greece. This, so the thinking goes, would make it politically difficult for foes to dispute the country's claim, let alone attack gas infrastructure, since other nations would be depending on it. Giora Eiland, a retired major general in Israel's military, former head of the National Security Council and a consultant to companies involved in the gas exploration, said: ‘Our potential enemies will be much more careful to do something against a facility that Europe has an interest in.’”

Below you will find a map of the Cyprus, Tamar, Leviathan, and Tanin Gas Fields and the location of the disputed maritime boundary – ‘disputed’ because, as was reported above, “Based on its boundaries on land, Israel established a maritime zone that veers well to the north”.

The above maps clearly indicate the game at play; Iran is considered a threat to the American Empire and must be dealt with, irrelevant of the consequences, or so the hawks(2, 3) proposing this madness would like us to believe.

What will happen if citizens of the U.S. allow their government to continue to threaten sovereign nations in an attempt to obtain control of the world’s resources is anyone’s guess; however, it is safe to assume that this endeavor will be bloody and require nation building. The boundaries of countries were redrawn after World War I and World War II (1, 2), and that is exactly what the end result will be once the dust settles after this world war.

The following two maps show what the Middle East as we know it looks like, and how the Middle East may look like if we continue down this path. The plans for this New Middle East were revealed in 2006 by retired Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters. The map, with the redrawn borders of the Middle East, indicates that Turkey would lose a large portion of its territory while Iraq would be split into three autonomous regions. This map also shows plans to partition Pakistan and reduce Iran’s territory, along with numerous other imperial agendas.

Below you will find five additional maps on proposed and existing oil and gas pipelines for this region. They range in complexity and provide a good overview of the game at play. We will return to this topic at a future date, once all parties involved have made their moves for this round. Please note that we will also at some point discuss the human toll of what’s taking place, the economics of war, and the related environmental catastrophe that we face due to our thirst for fossil fuels.

7 comments:

What Are We Doing in Syria? - "Guest host Phil Donahue examines the deadly civil war in Syria and the consequences of another American intervention in the Middle East. Our guests include NPR correspondent Deborah Amos and historian and analyst Andrew Bacevich."

Thanks, Rachel... and thanks for the link. It's a scramble to see who gets to Europe first I guess. Wonder how this one will play out connecting Turkey and Greece. When I get a chance I'll add this map to the post as well. Thanks again.