The Golden Globes Can Only Tell Us So Much

The 71st Golden Globe Awards nominations were announced this morning, shoring up some Oscar campaigns—Jared Leto is all but a lock at this point, I’m not sure anyone can beat Alfonso Cuarón—and giving plenty of others false hope. The Golden Globes nomineees are selected by a tiny group of people; there are “about 90” members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association according to its website, and one must always remember that they are indeed foreign. Meaning, don’t expect to see a movie like Rush at the Oscars

Which isn’t to say that supporting actor nominee Daniel Brühl doesn’t have definite Oscar nomination potential—he’s easily the best hope for Ron Howard’s well-received racing drama, and his place on this morning’s list puts him back in the conversation in a big way. But a nomination for best picture, which the movie snagged today? That’s not going to happen come Oscar time. Rush’s presence in that category is instructive in some ways about the general utility of the Globes as Oscar predictors. Which is to say, they’re not all that useful.

There’s a common gripe about the Globes that splitting comedy and drama makes everything wonky, and this year offers a few glaring examples of that confusion. People might see someone like Kate Winslet in the best drama actress category, for Labor Day, and think that she’s suddenly in the hunt. But really she’s not, she’s only up there because American Hustle and, absurdly, August: Osage County were listed in the comedy category. Sadly the same goes for Idris Elba, who scored an actor nomination today likely because he wasn’t up against Nebraska’s Bruce Dern.

The supporting categories, at least, help provide a likely Oscar narrative. The long-uncertain supporting actress race, with such an odd list of potential contenders this year, has now taken pretty solid shape. The only difference between yesterday’s Screen Actors Guild award nominations and today’s Globes list was that the HFPA forgot about Oprah, instead giving a nod to fellow foreigner (these foreigners!) Sally Hawkins. At this point, the race might not be for the actual trophy, but for who gets that last spot on the Academy's list.

Similarly, the supporting actor category looks pretty much the same for the SAGs and the Globes, with Bradley Cooper getting the nod at the Globes where the SAGs went with the late James Gandolfini. My guess is that Gandolfini will make it onto the Oscar shortlist, which could put Leto’s sure-thing status in some jeopardy. Which isn’t to say that a posthumous nomination always means a win—if it did, James Dean would have two Oscars. But Gandolfini was widely beloved in the industry, and the Academy never got a chance to show him that. This is likely their last chance.

While all of today’s nominees should be happy that this mysterious group of journalists invited them to their party, only a few should feel secure in the notion that their awards run will take them all the way to March. Sorry to say it, Ms. Winslet.