Hornets G Malik Monk

The Pick: Under 14.5 points (-125)

On the surface, this line feels about right. Monk has been hot recently, scoring at least 16 points in each of his past three games. He has one of the easiest matchups on the board against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 121.75 points is the top mark on the slate.

So why do I like the under?

For starters, Monk is still playing limited minutes, totaling 23.5 or fewer in each of his past three games. He’s also shot the ball exceeding well over that span at a 53.8% clip from the field and a 41.7% clip from 3-point range. That hot shooting has inflated his scoring prop. He’s due for some negative regression.

This is one of my favorite props of the day, and it has a bet quality of 10 in our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool. I’d play this up to -180.

Wizards F Kelly Oubre Jr.

The Pick: Under 13.5 points (-125)

Oubre played only 24 minutes against the Knicks on Sunday, despite Otto Porter Jr. missing the game with an injury. Oubre wasn’t hurt or in foul trouble, so it’s possible that he’s just fallen out of favor with the coaching staff at the moment.

If that’s the case, it’s hard to see him cracking 13.5 points — even in a plus-matchup against the Mavericks.

Oubre could return to his usual workload on Tuesday, but Porter’s return to the lineup doesn’t help. I’m willing to roll the dice and play this up to -150.

Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic

The Pick: Under 10.5 rebounds (-135)

Nurkic’s role tends to fluctuate on a nightly basis. Tuesday’s matchup against the Bucks doesn’t figure to be one in which he’s needed for big minutes since the Bucks like to play small and fast. Milwaukee also ranks second in rebound rate, which should limit his upside in that department.

Nurkic can gobble up rebounds in bunches — he pulled down 12 in only 23 minutes against the Timberwolves on Sunday — but this line feels high given the matchup. Still, I wouldn’t play this line at much higher than -150.