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Are Oil Prices Rising Too High Too Soon?

Oil prices have rallied significantly, rising $10 in two weeks as markets are increasingly convinced that global demand for crude is picking up once again.

Deep output cuts and the reopening of some of the largest economies in the world have brightened the outlook for oil, but many analysts are now beginning to question whether this rally isn’t already overdone. So why are oil prices still rocketing as analysts warn of ballooning inventories and continued weak demand for aviation fuel?

Looking at the data, the first signs of real demand recovery are coming from the Far East, where Chinese refiners have embarked on a buying spree, capitalizing on ultra-low crude prices in heavy hit markets such as Brazil, Oman, and West Africa.

Spurred by Beijing’s call to action, factories and farmers are leading the demand recovery in diesel according to Liu Yuntao, an analyst working with Energy Aspects in London.

But it’s not just diesel. Gasoline consumption is also on the rise in China, where rush hour traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, and tens of other big cities is approaching normal levels once again as the Chinese are finding out that coronavirus isn’t spread by driving your car.

Demand for jet fuel, however, continues to lag behind as air travel is still a fraction of what it was before the lockdown began. Demand for distillates such as jet fuel could continue to lag for a much longer time as long-haul air travel continues to face restrictions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates that international capacity could drop by as much as two-thirds from previous forecasts for the first three quarters of 2020.

Chinese refineries may have ramped up activity too soon. Refining margins are already suffering as Chinese refineries are exporting large amounts of oil products in the region, flooding an already well-supplied market with more gasoline, diesel and bunker fuel. Unlike China, other East-Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are taking a more prudent approach while planning to ease lockdowns, resulting in lower fuel consumption during what is usually seen as peak driving season. Related: Rig Count Collapse Continues Despite Jump In Oil Prices

In the meantime, 117 Very Large Crude Carriers are expected to unload up to 230 million barrels of crude oil to China over the course of the next three months. Most of this crude was bought in April against rock-bottom prices. Market watchers are now keeping a close eye on refinery run rates and margins in China as one of the first main indicators of real recovery in global crude demand.

A real recovery in crude markets will only materialize if Chinese oil imports continue to stabilize during 2020.

For now, early data on fuel consumption in both the Far East and the U.S. will show whether the optimism in oil markets was justified or not.

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Oil prices are known for their volatility. The first signs of global oil demand destruction and rising glut in the market sent Brent oil prices to just above $20 a barrels three weeks ago.

Now the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction encouraged by bullish factors supporting a recovery of global oil demand and prices.

These bullish factors include a steep decline a decline of 4 million barrels a day (mbd) in US shale oil production in May 10 according to the latest research by the respected US energy expert Philip Verleger, an accelerated easing of the global lockdowns, the implementation of OPEC+-led production cuts and the China’s thirst for oil.

China is already bouncing back extremely quickly in all sectors with projections already abound that China could grow at 6.8% in 2021 compared with 6.1% in 2019. This development will give a huge impetus to an oil market bereft of good news and may also prevent oil prices from sliding downward.

Despite the coronavirus outbreak, China’s crude oil imports in the first four months of 2020 averaged 10.11 mbd and were slightly higher than the same period of 2019. Moreover, China has been taking advantage of super-low oil prices to expand its strategic oil reserves before prices rise again. It is also stocking up on cheap LNG.

Of particular importance is the market realization that that the US shale oil has been irrevocably weakened by the coronavirus outbreak and is now a spent force with hardly any influence in the global oil market.

As a result, US crude oil imports are projected to rise from an estimated 9 mbd in 2019 to 11-12 mbd in the next 2-3 years.

Oil prices and demand will recoup all their previous losses with prices eventually hitting $40-$50 a barrel in the second half of this year and touching $60 in early 2021.

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