How do I determine my 10K pace? (Read 5021 times)

I know there is a thread about a first 10K. This will be my first too. But I have been running for almost a year now and today I ran 10 miles in a couple of hours. the pace was about 11:48 per mile. Which is slow, but I wanted it that way. Now, I know that I can pick up the pace for the 10 K race.
I want to run a negative split, but what is the formula for estimating a 10k pace?
Feel free to look a t my training log. You should ulook at the recent runst, the ones that started after the orange bar.
Thanks

Will be weightlifting and running to get into the best shape I can before turning 40. Here are my progress pictures:
http://tinyurl.com/584qwt

When I ran my first 10K, I had no idea how to determine my target pace, either. Since most of my training runs were around a 10:00 mile, I just figured that would be my race pace also, and expected to finish it in a little over an hour. However, the adrenaline and excitement of the race put me across the finish line in 59:22, much to my happy surprise. I haven't looked at your log, so I don't know at what speed you run most of your runs, but my whole point is, racing is a whole different ballgame from training. You'll get caught up in the fun, excitement and camaraderie, and you'll end up running faster than you expected. So don't worry about how fast you think you should run the race, just go out and run it, and enjoy the experience. Once you get your finishing time, then you'll have something to use for the future.

Looks as if you've just started to build a base using a heart monitor routine. Its not really ideal to mix this build up with racing. I suppose it can be done especially if you run through the race - ie. use it as a fast training run without overloading yourself. You could play around with this calculator to give yourself some ideas -
http://www.runnersworld.co.uk/news/article.asp?UAN=1681

You can also check out Mcmillan Running Calculator
You've ran 8:10 ish pace for 5 M previously so i don't see why you can't run that pace, or at least the 2nd half
Race hard but don't get hurt good luck.

muse_runner

keep running.

posted: 3/6/2007 at 10:47 AM

After about 2 months of running (again...ran a little cross country in high school and SUCKED) I went out and ran my 10k as fast as I could. It was the most painful thing I'd ever done (at the time). I finished in 50:44 and it was wicked hard. Every photo taken of me at the race was hideous as I was pushing my max. I hardly had endurance, let alone any speed...
I then took up a real training program after that and couldn't match my PR within a few months of that. Funny thing was the more I ran the more I realized what kind of pain I could tolerate and apparently I don't like pain THAT much.
Several months later I finally did beat that PR...
The long and short of it is that a good 10k is the fastest you can run in a 45 minute to hour period of time. If you can push hard the whole time and really focus you just made yourself a good race. It may not be fun but it's a good race.

running until I hit 1900 miles for the year.
whether fast or slow I will just run.

Thanks everyone.
I have started running and allowing myself to reach the threshold floor (85%); actually I haven't been able to reach that level becasue I get tired before hand.
The first day was good and full of energy, even with hills (I had had 2 days of rest previously after an easy 10 mi jog). Today it was challenging, probably from the lack of recovery in between days.
So I'm gonna keep paying attention to my time but it looks like realistically I may not be able to shoot at a pace below 9 min/mile ... but I'll make sure to eat well and rest plenty before the race, as these seem to have affected me significantly today.

Will be weightlifting and running to get into the best shape I can before turning 40. Here are my progress pictures:
http://tinyurl.com/584qwt

Try not to go for pace, but for effort. Your pace will be determined by multiple factors of that day and you don't want to go too hard or too easy and realize after the fact you goofed up a key workout, or worse, get injured. When you're ready to start your tempo or pace workout at 10k pace, get started and pick an effort you feel you can sustain for about 50 minutes without needing to slow down,or first time playing with effort based run, pick a pace you think you can hold for an hour and then see what happens. This will help you get in tune with your body and give you more realistic feedback of your current shape than shooting for an artificial time base.

I've been wondering the same things since I'm almost done with the walking parts of my walk/runs. What's a good estimate of my 5K and 10K pace? Not that I'm ready to race either, but I'd like to have some idea on how fast I should go when I see "Run x distance at 5K pace".
Jeff Galloway's Magic Mile Race Prediction Formulas seems to be reasonble. Basically it's: warm up, run a mile hard, add 33 sec to get 5K pace and multiply by 1.15 to get 10K pace. Do this once a week for 4 weeks and throw out the lowest time and average the other three.
If I'm reading it right , this VO2max link gives another way to estimate 10K pace as: run as far as you can in 5 minutes and note the distance. 20% slower is your approximate 10K pace. So if you run 1609m in 5 minutes (5 min/mile) your 10K pace would be 1609m in 6 minutes (6 min/mile)
I'm still new to all this running stuff so I'm not worrying about any *real* racing until I get a few more months behind me. But it's still fun to think about....

Try not to go for pace, but for effort. Your pace will be determined by multiple factors of that day and you don't want to go too hard or too easy and realize after the fact you goofed up a key workout, or worse, get injured. When you're ready to start your tempo or pace workout at 10k pace, get started and pick an effort you feel you can sustain for about 50 minutes without needing to slow down,or first time playing with effort based run, pick a pace you think you can hold for an hour and then see what happens. This will help you get in tune with your body and give you more realistic feedback of your current shape than shooting for an artificial time base.

FOLLOW UP:
For future readers of this thread. I ran my 10 K on April 15. This was my first ever race.
TIME: 58:58
PACE: 9:5
I ran with a friend of mine, and the course had just the right amount of challenges. A couple of not steep, but long hills.
I think that if I had run by myself I would have walked some, but as I did not want to loose face, I ran all the way. Granted I w.asn't very fast, I am proud of not having to stop.
In the end, I do feel I gave it at LEAST 99% of my effort. That extra 1% would have made me get sick at the end of the run.
I made a printout of time splits for finishing at 1 hour or finishing at 55 mins. and adjusted my pace as I went along depending on how I was feeling. When 55 mins seemed impossible I aimed for staying under 1 hour.
Final advice, run at your normal training pace and find out how you are feeling as you go along. I also knew the rout from previous runs so I had an Idea of the hills that I knew would be challenging for me.

Will be weightlifting and running to get into the best shape I can before turning 40. Here are my progress pictures:
http://tinyurl.com/584qwt

You can also check out Mcmillan Running Calculator
You've ran 8:10 ish pace for 5 M previously so i don't see why you can't run that pace, or at least the 2nd half
Race hard but don't get hurt good luck.

The McMillan Running Calculator is amazing...one of my bookmarked sites for sure. It's always pretty darn close as far as predicting performance.