In other words, there's a higher probability that the report will
beat or miss expectations by a wide margin. And either way, it
might not matter since it won't reflect the core health of the
labor market.

Here are some of the special factors that D'Antonio identified:

Extreme cold in December — The extreme cold
and stormy weather saw "an exceptionally low"
December payrolls figure which hit construction and leisure
industries. This could benefit January because weather
related-weakness is usually fully reversed the following month.
Then again, January was also exceptionally cold which could
limit a "bounce back."

Massive surge in November — Another factor
that could limit a bounce back is the fact that November saw a
surge in jobs. This could explain some of the weakness in
December. So rather than see December jobs pushed into January,
we may have actually already seen them pulled into November.

Seasonal retail hiring — The run-up in retail
hiring, which occurs around the holidays, is likely over.
However, this adds noise to the numbers around this time of
year.

Labor force correction — The labor force
participation rate has dropped sharply, falling
0.7 percentage point in the past six months. "We think
there could be a correction in the labor force that would
naturally elevate the unemployment rate slightly."

Emergency unemployment benefits — The Jan. 1
expiration of federal emergency
unemployment benefits could see the unemployment rate fall
"to the extent that people who lost their benefits either found
jobs or left the workforce."

D'Antonio also thinks any gain in income will be offset by
unemployment benefits. He expects the economy to add 180,000 jobs
in January, and for the unemployment rate to stay at 6.7%.