I am sorry for anyone who thinks this may come north at the last minute. The jet configuration just does not support that. Any shift is all noise at this point and is just on the precip fields as the models adjust to the extent of how much will eat into the ridging and confluence to the north. This is just not a northeast storm unfortunately.

The 00z ECMWF is really dumping the precip with the intial surge early Sunday morning. It also is a bit slower to transition to mix in the Triangle. Wonder what NWS RAH will do. Real important now to monitor trends in the high res guidance

they have been backing off...
For Sunday through Tuesday...We continue to closely monitor the
evolution of a southern stream storm. As mentioned above in the
overview section, while there still is some uncertainty there is
more of a consensus of the storm staying to our south. The
continuation and even re-enforcement of cyclonic flow in eastern
Canada into New England keeps an area of confluence just east of the
Northeast. With this northwesterly flow being maintained, the
southern stream is held to our south and the northern stream energy
lags behind such that it does not phase with the southern stream.
For a storm to make the turn northward, the confluence area would
need to shift east with some ridging taking its place. That does not
appear to be the case this time given all the energy diving
southeastward across eastern Canada. As a result, shifted the low
PoPs southward some however a bit more phasing could still lift this
storm at least a little farther north. This would bring more
precipitation into at least our far southern areas and this is where
the chance PoPs are maintained.

The thing I want to pay close attention to is the CAD, the placement of the high, how quickly it scoots to the east and weakens, and the track of the surface low. There will likely be some mid level warming at some point, but if the CAD holds on we could be talking about a significant snow/sleet event for the Piedmont through the Mountains. The current projected low track and intensity to me says even the coastal plain may some snow initially. Of course, Raleigh looks to be on the fine line. Def need to pay attention to the damming as it gets set up on Saturday-Saturday evening.