Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
AN AFTERNOON TRMM PASS DEPICTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS REMAINED OPENED
OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS A
SMALL...CLOUD-FILLED EYE...AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STABLE DRY AIR...FORCING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE
WEAKENING THAT JAVIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WIND RADII WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102
KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE TRMM PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THEN A RAPID DECREASE AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN 36 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PERSISTANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE
JAVIER TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUNS CONSENSUS...WHICH EXCLUDES THE WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS...REMAINS THE BASIS OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.8N 109.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 109.6W 105 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
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