Bridgwater and West Somerset : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators
for the new Bridgwater and West Somerset constituency, the 'South West' area
and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes
(what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating
to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are
those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator

Seat

South West

All GB

Party Winner

CON

CON

CON

Economic Position

6° Right

8° Right

0°

National Position

15° Nat

4° Nat

0°

EU Leave %

63%

53%

52%

British Identity

24%

27%

29%

Good Health

43%

47%

48%

UK Born

95%

92%

88%

Good Education

33%

40%

39%

Good Job

41%

50%

51%

High SEC

44%

52%

51%

Average Age

52.0

50.5

48.5

ABC1 Class

43%

54%

53%

Bridgwater and West Somerset ranks #87 for "Leave",
#271 for "Right" and #137 for "National"
out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below.
The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education,
Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme
indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic

Cat 1

Cat 2

Cat 3

Cat 4

Cat 5

Economic Position

Very Left

Left

Centrist

Right

Very Right

National Position

Very Int

International

Centrist

National

Very Nat

EU Leave %

Very Remain

Remain

Balanced

Leave

Very Leave

Census

Very Low

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator

CensusQuestion

Definition / Included Census Categories

Party Winner

–

Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus

Economic Position

–

Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

National Position

–

National position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.

Bridgwater and West Somerset: Map

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had
the new boundaries for Bridgwater and West Somerset been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the
district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based
on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts
and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies.
So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015
from the period 2012-2015.
For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party.
A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply
general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which
means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election.
To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled,
whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election
turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general
election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call
these strong and weak parties respectively.
The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes
proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes,
but only 10,000 general election
votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated
to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat.
For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool
and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer
of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

New seat: Bridgwater and West Somerset

The new seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bridgwater and West Somerset

District

Ward

Electorate2017

Old Seat

CONVotes

LABVotes

LIBVotes

UKIPVotes

GreenVotes

NATVotes

MINVotes

OTHVotes

TotalVotes

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Dunwear

4,034

Bridgwater and West Somerset

999

1,104

321

178

30

0

0

0

2,632

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Eastover

3,893

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,018

1,152

275

64

32

0

0

0

2,541

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Fairfax

6,464

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,773

1,866

436

105

39

0

0

0

4,219

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Hamp

4,532

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,229

1,400

227

71

28

0

0

0

2,955

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Victoria

5,077

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,476

1,309

280

213

36

0

0

0

3,314

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Westover

4,526

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,169

1,325

344

77

37

0

0

0

2,952

Sedgemoor

Bridgwater Wyndham

3,533

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,342

620

264

57

23

0

0

0

2,306

Sedgemoor

Cannington and Wembdon

3,922

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,580

464

402

58

56

0

0

0

2,560

Sedgemoor

East Polden

1,804

Bridgwater and West Somerset

826

198

101

23

28

0

0

0

1,176

Sedgemoor

King's Isle

3,777

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,557

451

356

55

47

0

0

0

2,466

Sedgemoor

North Petherton

5,993

Bridgwater and West Somerset

2,352

780

610

91

78

0

0

0

3,911

Sedgemoor

Quantocks

3,801

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,695

474

204

53

55

0

0

0

2,481

Sedgemoor

West Polden

1,990

Bridgwater and West Somerset

913

222

106

27

29

0

0

0

1,297

West Somerset

Alcombe

2,340

Bridgwater and West Somerset

705

477

169

131

46

0

0

0

1,528

West Somerset

Brendon Hills

1,034

Bridgwater and West Somerset

507

99

49

14

7

0

0

0

676

West Somerset

Carhampton and Withycombe

967

Bridgwater and West Somerset

420

130

52

14

15

0

0

0

631

West Somerset

Crowcombe and Stogumber

1,033

Bridgwater and West Somerset

487

107

52

14

14

0

0

0

674

West Somerset

Dulverton and District

2,140

Bridgwater and West Somerset

979

247

111

30

30

0

0

0

1,397

West Somerset

Dunster and Timberscombe

1,017

Bridgwater and West Somerset

429

146

57

16

16

0

0

0

664

West Somerset

Greater Exmoor

943

Bridgwater and West Somerset

448

100

43

14

12

0

0

0

617

West Somerset

Minehead Central

3,895

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,342

604

349

182

66

0

0

0

2,543

West Somerset

Minehead North

1,802

Bridgwater and West Somerset

704

262

103

92

14

0

0

0

1,175

West Somerset

Minehead South

2,015

Bridgwater and West Somerset

716

396

129

36

38

0

0

0

1,315

West Somerset

Old Cleeve

1,843

Bridgwater and West Somerset

828

218

100

26

30

0

0

0

1,202

West Somerset

Porlock and District

1,967

Bridgwater and West Somerset

829

236

107

83

29

0

0

0

1,284

West Somerset

Quantock Vale

1,766

Bridgwater and West Somerset

789

224

89

25

26

0

0

0

1,153

West Somerset

Watchet

3,178

Bridgwater and West Somerset

1,070

634

262

54

54

0

0

0

2,074

West Somerset

West Quantock

890

Bridgwater and West Somerset

422

90

44

13

12

0

0

0

581

West Somerset

Williton

2,250

Bridgwater and West Somerset

799

417

160

42

50

0

0

0

1,468

Total

82,426

29,403

15,752

5,802

1,858

977

0

0

0

53,792

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset.
Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those
used by the Boundary Commissions.