I like to take lots and lots of numbers and turn them into proprietary concepts and multi-platform content. Three of my longstanding publishing creations: the valuations of sports teams, ranking actors and movie studios on bang for the buck (ROI) and the Forbes Fab 40 (the most valuable sports brands). My most recent idea was Names You Need To Know, which broadened my concept of list creation to include direct input from our audience. I also like to take apart corporate balance sheets to measure earnings quality and have a passion for economics (my MBA thesis at Long Island University was an empirical study on the cause of inflation in which regression analysis showed a significant correlation between the general level of prices and the money supply). Besides being an Executive Editor at Forbes I also have a gig as co-host and Managing Editor of the 3-time New York Emmy award winning Forbes SportsMoney on the YES Network and Fox Sports 1 with my buddies at YES, co-host Bob Lorenz and producer David Alfreds, both of whom have taught me a tremendous amount. I also regularly appear on Fox and CNBC to chat about the business, political and sports issues of the day. One of my favorite times is being a guest every few weeks on Larry Kudlow's radio show on WABC Saturday mornings. Larry has been a great mentor and friend. My brother in arms is Kurt Badenhausen, whom I have worked with for many years and knows more about sports numbers than anyone.

Outcome Of TV Dispute Could Decide If Orioles Or Nationals Win A World Series

Two of the great stories in Major League Baseball this season are the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. The Orioles have made the postseason for the first time since 1997 while this will be the inaugural trip for the Nationals, who moved from Montreal to D.C. for the 2005 season.

BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 24: Ian Desmond #20 of the Washington Nationals forces out Steve Tolleson #6 of the Baltimore Orioles at second base during an interleague game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 24, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Although the two teams could eventually face off against each other in the World Series, they are currently battling each other in a dispute over television rights fees that could have a much bigger impact on both teams than anything that happens during this year’s postseason.

As Press Box reported in July, the dispute is over how much money MASN, the regional sports network that is 87% owned by the Orioles and 13% owned by the Nationals, should pay Washington in television rights fees. Orioles owner Peter Angelos wants to give the Nationals a 20% increase, to $35 million per year. But billionaire Ted Lerner, who owns the Nationals, is looking for more like $100 million annually.

According to Nielsen, Washington, D.C. is the 8th-largest television market with 2.36 million TV homes and Baltimore is ranked 27th with 1.1 million. Two years ago, the Texas Rangers, who are in the fifth-biggest market with 2.57 million TV households, inked a 20-year television deal with Fox Sports Southwest worth an estimated $3 billion that pays the team an average of $80 million a season (excluding the upfront signing bonus). Not long after, the Houston Astros, in the 10th-largest market with 2.19 million TV homes, agreed to a deal last in 2010 with Comcast Sportsnet Houston that also pays the team an average of $80 million over 20 years.

But there is more to the math than market size. MASN charges carriers an average of $2.14 per subscriber, per month, 35 cents below the average for regional sports networks, according to SNL Kagan. As a result, MASN’s revenue will likely be under $200 million this year, obviously not nearly enough to support $100 million rights fees for the Nationals and Orioles and have any money to reinvest back into the RSN.

Which begs the question: is MASN mismanaged? After all, Comcast Sportsnet Mid-Atlantic is getting $4 per month for Washington’s Capitals (NHL), Wizards (NBA), and Redskins for the preseason (NFL), which total much fewer games than MASN’s slate of Nationals and Orioles contests. And ratings for the Nationals and Orioles are up considerably this year.

A listing of the 10 most valuable cable deals in baseball can be found here.

MLB, which is acting as the arbitrator in the matter, began hearing arguments from both teams several months ago but has not yet ruled on the matter. The lack of a resolution on the value of the television rights makes budgeting extremely difficult. Recall that before this season the Rangers used their cable bounty to help them sign Japanese pitching star, Yu Darvish to a $51.7 million deal, and the Los Agneles Angels of Anaheim used their new cable deal with Fox Sports to finance the signing of Albert Pumols and C.J.Wilson. Also, the Los Angeles Dodgers were able to pull off a blockbuster trade with the Boston Red Sox last month because the Guggenheim Baseball knows they are going to cash in on a extremely lucrative television deal.

A spokesperson for MLB would not comment other than to say a resolution is coming to the home stretch. Under the terms of the MASN contract, both the Nationals and Orioles must get the same television fee. Here’s the rub: While the Nationals, a minority owner in the RSN, want the rights fee to be as high as possible, the Orioles favor more money being kept in the RSN because they are the majority equity owner and a lower rights fee would reduce their MLB revenue-sharing payments.

The outcome of this dispute could have a huge impact on the ability of both teams to continue to be among baseball’s elite. Both the Orioles and Nationals had opening day payrolls of about $81 million, $5 million less than baseball’s median. Both teams will likely need to spend more to maintain their surge beyond this season and be a consistent World Series contender. For example, the Oakland A’s are the only other low payroll team aside from the Nationals and Orioles to make the postseason this year. Even the Tampa Bay Rays, who have built one of the great on-the-cheap franchises in MLB history, wilted down the stretch this season.

For the Nationals and Orioles, the MASN deal could decide who wins and who wilts long after this season.

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