Bottom For Solar Prices

We are officially (more or less) declaring that the bottom has been hit in solar panel prices. I doubt that prices will get any lower to any significant degree.

Over the past 3 months we have seen no significant price reductions from any of the manufacturers that we buy from, and one of the major ones has indicated that panel prices will probably be going up by a few cents per watt in the near future.

This is not really surprising - panel prices have been selling near or below the actual cost of manufacture for nearly a year now, and it appears that most of the less viable company failures have happened or are in the works. There may be a few more companies that go under and some M&A, but I do not see anything that would indicate further price reductions.

Comments

This.....which is why its important for people to understand that as these incentives go away, the price of solar will only continue to get more expensive. At this point, I don't see installed prices getting below $2.80 a watt, which is still terrific, hell a few years ago people were paying $6.00 a watt with a $3.00 a watt rebate but I think for a lot of people its approaching true "$#$# or get off the pot" time for lack of a better description.

I now see Texas Solar Juice offering to install the system, and sell the electricity it makes, @ 20% less than the power company per kilowatt. About 10% of system cost for hook up and activation is all that is required.

Well I was quoted a 10KW system at 1.05/w a month ago and now I get a quote for $.77 a watt if you buy the inverters with the panels. And their inverter prices are not jacked up to compensate either. this is with a reputable company I have dealt with for about a year and half out of Texas. I would not be surprised it companies start selling solar laminates (no aluminum frame) just to reduce their per watt price down about 20 cents or so and look more attractive. Edited to add,,,,,this does not appear to be a one time bankrupency like evergreen either, just normal "sale" pricing on these German panels.

by the time you pay for shipping probably closer to 45 cetns a watt,
given that they are used and probably will only last 80 % of a new panel, you are not saving much compared to a new panel that sells for 70 cents a watt with shipping included. 80% of 70cents is around 55cent per watt.

From europe I can tell you that there is a lot of possible cost reduction if more people per km² buy solar systems. WE have standard prices for large systems of 1€/Wp (1,3US$), and about 1,3€/Wp (1,69US$) for typical rooftop systems here (5-10kW). I guess our installation and trading companies are much more efficient than they are today in the U.S. (I think there was a research project of the U.S. Gouvernment on the causes for the price differences between germany and the US, which found that both are using modules etc... starting with about the same factory prices, but on each and every step afterwards the cost in the german market was significant lower, due to higher experience, more and longer specialisation, and especially due to more customers per area.

I believe there is still too much over supply from china, and its not going to stop any time soon, as long as the chinese government continues to persist on dominating in renewable energy, mostly due to the high cost of fossil fuel consumption, and development that is occurring to their country.
Most companies just hop on the china bandwagon to reduce their costs further (I.E) Canadian solar, SPK, Perlight, etc......
Mono Crystalline by far has been driven down that it is inline with poly crystalline, unless its a sunpower monocrystaline or schott polycrystalline because of proprietary reasons, and manufacturing isn't from china, those panels still sell over $1.40, but yield high conversion efficiency rates. Any manufacturer selling a panel between 11.5 to 18% conversion efficient are all in the same ballpark of under a $1 per watt.
I spoke and did a trade with one of my good solar buds the other day of how the pricing for 12V panels still remains high in the $1.20 range, it seems to be the gold that every one is in search for to reach that pivotal point of under a $1 a watt. I just traded him (2) 100 watt mono 12V chinese panels 17.73%, for (1) 228 watt serengeti poly ( all brand new so I get 28 watts for free).
On the commercial scale, anything over 50kwh, finance companies still have the bulk of purchasing power at roughly $.65 a watt AVG. Its the finance companies that are controlling the supply and demand of panels. Once finance companies slow down on the purchase of solar panels, mostly because of the extinction of the 30% government tax credit, solar panel pricing will have a teetering effect on supply and demand between commercial and residential markets.
On residential under 25kwh most consumers are buying at a price point of about $.90 a watt AVG.
Truth is we don't need the tax credit, when the tax credit started panels were 400% higher in cost 7 years ago. The extinction of the tax credit will slow down finance companies from buying solar panels, then that pricing between residential and commercial will even out. Before you know it because of the relief of the tax credit "all" panels are going to sell for .78 watt. Supply and demand of economics.

The real bottom may not be the price but rather the quality issues from pricing too low. My last trade magazine Solar Pro had quite a few pages devoted to quality and the issues of Panel companies who have to cut corners. One of my favorite panels the Panasonic HIT modules (old Sanyo) have made in Japan on them.

In recent years, the price of solar panels that decline, but it will not suddenly drop to very low, can only say that with the development of technology, the cost of the entire solar energy will gradually decrease.

In recent years, the price of solar panels that decline, but it will not suddenly drop to very low, can only say that with the development of technology, the cost of the entire solar energy will gradually decrease.

I believe there is still too much over supply from china, and its not going to stop any time soon, as long as the chinese government continues to persist on dominating in renewable energy, mostly due to the high cost of fossil fuel consumption, and development that is occurring to their country.
Most companies just hop on the china bandwagon to reduce their costs further (I.E) Canadian solar, SPK, Perlight, etc......
Mono Crystalline by far has been driven down that it is inline with poly crystalline, unless its a sunpower monocrystaline or schott polycrystalline because of proprietary reasons, and manufacturing isn't from china, those panels still sell over $1.40, but yield high conversion efficiency rates. Any manufacturer selling a panel between 11.5 to 18% conversion efficient are all in the same ballpark of under a $1 per watt.
I spoke and did a trade with one of my good solar buds the other day of how the pricing for 12V panels still remains high in the $1.20 range, it seems to be the gold that every one is in search for to reach that pivotal point of under a $1 a watt. I just traded him (2) 100 watt mono 12V chinese panels 17.73%, for (1) 228 watt serengeti poly ( all brand new so I get 28 watts for free).
On the commercial scale, anything over 50kwh, finance companies still have the bulk of purchasing power at roughly $.65 a watt AVG. Its the finance companies that are controlling the supply and demand of panels. Once finance companies slow down on the purchase of solar panels, mostly because of the extinction of the 30% government tax credit, solar panel pricing will have a teetering effect on supply and demand between commercial and residential markets.
On residential under 25kwh most consumers are buying at a price point of about $.90 a watt AVG.
Truth is we don't need the tax credit, when the tax credit started panels were 400% higher in cost 7 years ago. The extinction of the tax credit will slow down finance companies from buying solar panels, then that pricing between residential and commercial will even out. Before you know it because of the relief of the tax credit "all" panels are going to sell for .78 watt. Supply and demand of economics.

As far as Sunpower being not made in China, here is one of many Chinese sellers offering "Sunpower" Maxeon cells;

I just bought some solar world panels because I wanted to support American Jobs. I was about ready to buy panels that was made in Singapore but changed my mind to buy American when I started to think how China is taking our jobs. I retired from a foundry that tried to get in big with wind turbines. Ge bought Enron and had our foundry develop methods to get the castings and metallurgy right. There were other foundrys that gave up before we got the pattern equipment. We had a learning curve and when we got them to a low scrap rate Ge wanted to cut the price. We cut them as much as we could then they wanted more. In the mean time the cost of allows really got high. So they moved off to China. WE made hubs and gear cases for them. We had the hubs so strong that we had a hard time breaking up the scrap ones so we could re melt them. There was a scrap crane dropping an 8 thousand iron ball on them at a 30 foot height and it would bounce and roll off the casting. Usually had to drop the ball 5 or 6 times to get the casting to crack and once you had a crack you could break it up. What makes me boil is the gov. pays GE and others SUBSIDYS to make the turbines with US taxpayers money. If GE is going to take the subsidy they should be required to buy the parts in the USA to make them. I am afraid the foundry isn,t going to survive because of China. Reasion I voted for Trump. Hope he can get this turned around where manufacturing is done in the good old USA again. Or Even Canada

This foundry started in 1876 and knows how to make world class castings. It is areal art to make a successful quality casting. The gate system has to be designed right. The metallurgy has to be right and pour speed, temperature and cooling time has to be right so the casting comes out right. Just about any casting can be broken if you have the right tool unless the walls are 2 feet thick then you have to burn them into pieces small enough to get into the furnace. We made castings up to about 80 ton. It takes a preety big truck with at least 3 trailers connected to haul one that big. Some have a diesel engine on the tail end trailer to steer the back trailer.

I did not see where it stated they used 1876 tech. Just massive amounts of experience. Which would have led to both successes and failures. Basically an advancment of the craft.

Your(edit Lumisol's) style of posting is very troll like in nature. It may not be your intention but a lot of your posts come off very abrasive in tone. These forums usually have a better tone then what they have had over the past few weeks.

If not purposefully abrasive maybe you can tone it down. Re read your post before you hit submit