Forex Technical Analysis

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Forex Technical Analysis

DAILY MARKET REPORT
November 30th 2016

EUR/USD

The greenback seesawed within gains and losses against most if its rivals, ending the day marginally lower across the board, only up against the Japanese yen. Data coming from Europe showed that the EU sentiment improved in November, although below market’s expectations. The economic sentiment indicator surged to 106.5 from a previously revised 106.3, below the 107.00 expected, while consumer confidence remained flat at -6.1. German’s inflation remained unchanged in November, when compared to October, while the YoY reading came in at 0.7%.

In the US, things continued to improve. The first revision of Q3 GDP showed that the economy grew by 3.2% from 2.9% in the preliminary estimate while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose significantly in October, up to 107.1 from 100.8 in October, back above pre-recession levels. The news helped the greenback intraday, resulting in the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.0564, but the dollar was unable to extend its rally, and the consolidative phase in the pair continued for one more day.

Technically, the pair has made little progress, as it remains well below the 1.0700 region, the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily slide. Technical indicators in the daily chart have kept correcting extreme overbought conditions, but with the price contained, seems that the market is just waiting for another excuse to resume dollar’s buying. In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently above a modestly bullish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator aims higher around 55 and the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength within neutral territory, not enough to confirm a steeper recovery, but good enough to maintain the downside limited.

Support levels: 1.0590 1.0550 1.0505

Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0700 1.0740

Forex Technical Analysis

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen was the worst performer against the greenback, with the USD/JPY pair ending the day up at 112.56, trimming most of its weekly losses. The pair recovered up to 113.33 following the release of a better-than-expected US Q3 GDP revision, but quickly retreated back below the 113.00 level. Data coming from Japan showed that the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.0% in October, while household spending in the same month came in at -1.0% against 0.1% expected. On the bright side, retail sales improved yearly basis, falling just by 0.1% against an expected decline of 1.2%. Investors will pay extra attention to the US ADP report this Wednesday, in anticipation to Friday’s NFP report, and may rally on an upward surprise. In the meantime, the short term picture shows that the risk is towards the downside, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is back below its 100 SMA, while technical indicators have retreated from overbought territory, heading lower around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price remains far above bullish moving averages, but technical indicators have turned back south, with the Momentum unable to recover above the 100 level, supporting the shorter term outlook.

Support levels: 112.30 111.90 111.40

Resistance levels: 113.10 113.55 114.05

Forex Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair surged up to 1.2525 before retreating modestly, boosted at the beginning of the day by better-than-expected money and credit data coming from the UK. According to official data, mortgage approvals rose by the most in October since last March, up to 67.518K from a revised September figure of 63.594K. In the same month, net consumer credit surged to £1.62bln, against the £1.5bln expected and well above the previous month. The intraday advance stalled right below the weekly high of 1.2530, with the pair struggling now around the 1.2500 figure, and the 4 hours chart shows that the price recovered above its 20 SMA and the 200 EMA that anyway remain horizontal, reflecting the ongoing neutral tone. In the same chart, technical indicators have regained positive territory before turning flat, also indicating the absence of directional strength. Anyway, the pair has held once again above the daily ascendant trend line coming from 12088, around 1.2390/1.2410 for this Wednesday. An extension beyond 1.2530, could see the pair recovering towards the 1.2600 region, although further gains seem unlikely for the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.2460 1.2420 1.2385

Resistance levels: 1.2530 1.2565 1.2610

Forex Technical Analysis

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair closed in the red this Tuesday, but off its daily low of 0.7432. The Aussie fell at the beginning of the day, weighed by retreating commodities futures in China, further extending its decline with the US upward revision of Q3 GDP. Nevertheless, the pair recovered ground after the OECD, raised its outlook for Australian economic growth for this year and next, while surging industrial metal prices, also underpinned the antipodean currency. Despite the lower low for the week, the pair presents a bullish tone heading into the Asian opening, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is holding above a clearly bullish 20 SMA, which stands now a few pips above 0.7450 a strong Fibonacci support, while technical indicators have bounced from their mid-lines, maintaining strong upward slopes. The pair needs to extend its advance beyond 0.7500 to be able to rally further, with scope then to test the 0.7600 region, the next Fibonacci resistance.

Support levels: 0.7450 0.7400 0.7365

Resistance levels: 0.7500 0.7540 0.7580

Forex Technical Analysis

GBP/CAD

The GBP/CAD cross recovered some ground, still trading within familiar ranges and mostly driven by Pound’s recovery, as the UK currency is back trading around 1.2500 against its American rival. As for the Canadian dollar, the currency resisted fairly oil prices’ slump, ending the day modestly lower against the greenback. The cross advanced up to 1.6839 intraday, retreating from the strong Fibonacci resistance that has contained advances for most of the last two weeks. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is holding above a strongly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned flat well above their mid-lines after correcting overbought conditions, indicating limited selling interest at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently struggling around a horizontal 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator failed to sustain gains above its mid-line and heads lower within bearish territory, and the RSI indicator also turned lower, but around 52, suggesting that the risk is towards the downside, but needing additional technical confirmations.

Support levels: 1.6730 1.6690 1.6640

Resistance levels: 1.6840 1.6895 1.6950

Forex Technical Analysis

Dow Jones

Wall Street recovered some ground this Monday, although gains were moderate by oil woes, with investors side-lined ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 23 points, to close at 19,121.60, while the Nasdaq Compose advanced 0.21% or 11 points, to end at 5,379.92. The S&P added 0.135 and settled at 2,204.66. The Dow’s daily chart shows that the Momentum indicator has lost part of its downward strength right above its 100 line, while the RSI indicator has corrected within overbought territory, aiming now modestly higher around 72 as the 20 DMA maintains a strong upward slope in the 18,830 region, all of which supports a bullish extension towards fresh highs. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the neutral stance persists, with the index still stuck around a horizontal 20 SMA, and the Momentum indicator still stuck around its 100 level, while the RSI indicator turned modestly lower around 59, this last limiting chances of a steeper decline.

Support levels: 19,066 19,005 18,960

Resistance levels: 19,136 19,180 19,230

Forex Technical Analysis

FTSE

The FTSE 100 extended its decline this Tuesday, shedding 27 points to close at 6,772.00, dragged lower by oil prices’ slump. The downside, however, was contained by better-than-expected UK credit figures, which underpinned the housing sector. Barratt Developments was among the best performers, up 2.28%, while Persimmon added 1.95%. Antofagasta led decliners, shedding 2.91%, followed by Fresnillo that closed 3.44% lower and BHP Billiton, down by 3.03%. The index has posted a lower low and a lower high daily basis, now developing below a bearish 20 SMA, currently at 6,802, whilst technical indicators head south within bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, the index continues developing below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators have turned modestly lower right below their mid-lines, with not enough downward strength to confirm a bearish extension. Renewed selling pressure below the 6,730 region, will likely result in the index falling down to 6,656, this month low.

Support levels: 6,735 6,693 6,656

Resistance levels: 6,802 6,835 6,876

Forex Technical Analysis

Gold

Gold prices turned south this Tuesday, with spot ending the day around $1,188.30 a troy ounce, weighed by improving market sentiment, as stocks reversed their Monday losses, while the dollar remained strong. The commodity bounced from a daily low of 1,180.97, with the downside now limited as the market has pretty much priced in a FED rate hike next December, and is starting to focus in other probable risk events, such as the upcoming referendum in Italy or Austrian elections this weekend. Spot gold maintains a bearish tone in its daily chart, as technical indicators seem to have completed their upward corrections and are back heading south, whilst the 20 SMA has continued falling, now acting as dynamic resistance around 1,220.70. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, technical readings present a neutral-to-bearish stance, with the price hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA and technical indicators hovering around their mid-lines. In this last time frame, the 100 SMA heads lower well above the current level, leaning the scale towards the downside.

Support levels: 1,178.60 1,170.90 1,161.65

Resistance levels: 1,197.55 1,210.60 1,220.70

Forex Technical Analysis

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Forex Technical Analysis

Forex Technical Analysis

Forex Technical Analysis

THE CLARITIQUE QUESTIONNAIRE

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