There is some cautious optimism that information about Ron Arad - who has been missing since bailing out of his downed plane over Lebanon in 1986 - may be forthcoming, and may ultimately lead to his release.

Some of the optimism comes from a notion that Iran wants to improve its image. As a result, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is now denying that Arad is in Iran, claiming that he is Lebanon. Israeli intelligence has for years believed Arad to have been sold to Iran by Mustafa Dirani, one of the terrorists slated for release this week.

I agree with that notion that Iran wants to improve its image, but unfortunately, it leads me to a much more pessimistic view.

The last thing Iran wants is for an Israeli it held captive for nearly 15 years (and overall has been a hostage for 18 years) to come out alive, able to tell the world about the brutality with which the Iranian government treated him. Furthermore, given that Israel has demonstrated a foolish willingness to release scores of terrorists for the bodies of dead soldiers, Iran has little incentive to release Arad alive.

Perhaps sensing this, or perhaps out of selflessness despite their suffering, Arad's family has announced that it does not want Israel to release any terrorists in exchange for Arad's body.

Hopefully Arad - along with Zachary Baumel, Yehuda Katz, and Zvi Feldman, who have been missing since a 1982 battle in the first days of the Lebanon War - will come home safely very soon, as will Guy Hever, missing since 1997.