Budget perspective in Croatia after accession to the European Union

Petar Sopek, Privredna banka Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

AbstractUpon accession to the European Union, the New Member State’s budget undergoes significant structural changes due to the appearance of new categories of revenues and expenditures. The aim of this paper is to estimate the possible effects of Croatian membership in the EU on changes in the structure and size of budget revenues and expenditures upon the country’s accession to the EU in the second half of 2013, as well as to indicate the possibilities for utilization of EU funds in the new financial perspective up to 2020. It is shown that in 2013 Croatia might realize a positive net financial position in transactions with the EU budget in the amount of approximately 0.28% of GDP, i.e. EUR 136 m. The total net financial position of Croatia due to EU accession, which includes some additional costs and benefits like different harmonization and the need for project co-financing at state and local levels, is also positive in 2013 and amounts to approximately 0.15% of GDP or equivalently EUR 72 m. Total amount of all funds that Croatia might receive in the new EU financial perspective covering the period from 2014 to 2020 amounts to EUR 6.34 bn, whereby annual amounts increase from EUR 0.7 bn in 2014 up to EUR 1.2 bn in 2020. By using exponential regression analysis it is estimated that in 2020 Croatia should be a net recipient of funds from the EU budget in total amount of 1.72% of GDP, i.e. EUR 1.13 bn.

Keywords: Croatia; European Union; fiscal policy; membership in the EU; net effects of accession; EU funds; New Member States