A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

November 21, 2006

Read this article - "Housing Bubble Smack-Down" (thanks borka for the link)The only thing I haven't figured out is simply this:Why?Why did the Fed allow the housing bubble to become the biggest financial mania in recorded human history?Was it negligence? Or pure incompetence? Or just plain evil?

Well, first of all, you can ignore all the gibberish you hear on the business channel about “soft landings” and a “temporary downturn”. There’ll be no soft landings.

This is the Big One; Real Estate Armageddon followed by a plague of locusts.

JUST LOOK AT THE NUMBERS! There’s a $10 trillion difference between the aggregate in 2000 and 2006! $4.5 trillion of that is new mortgage-debt! That’s more than a little “froth” as Greenspan likes to say. In an economy that’s currently growing at a feeble 1.6%, a plummeting housing market could pave the way for another (dare I say it) Great Depression.

I think the author while technically correct is way too alarmist. It will be bad when all is said and done but he makes it out to be the end of the US. I am not buying it but I might be buying some swiss bonds.

Keith, I have to respectfully disagree with you. A true housing meltdown on the order of 20-30% would certainly lead to a crash in consumer confidence and consumer spending. The stock market is looking 6-9 months out and is saying nope, ain't gonna happen. All I am saying is the leading indicators are reflecting a soft landing in the housing market. Forgetting those frothy markets like Phoenix and Miami where things have turned ugly. That is a very localized situation.

Just look at the housing stocks.KBH, DHI, CTX, etc. They are recovering. Its over. The big selloff is done. Now we're back on track and builders are selling againg. Just watch the homebuilder stocks. Going up?

Come on you HP er's. You're delusional. A 50-70% drop in prices in the next year in this "soft landing" is "in the bag". They have continually been saying prices are soft. What more proof you need. The prices will be soft all the way down to the 70% where it will stay soft while we all work for some conglomerate in china. Simple ... soft landing of 75% haircuts.Cool.Cow_tipping.

Fed was not negligent, incompetent or evil. They did what they thought was best for the country.

You need to understand that as economists, they cannot react to things they cannot explain with an economic model. If one doesn't understand the mechanism that is creating the problem, how can one know that the solution won't create an even bigger problem?

Unfortunately, economic models that most macroeconomists are familiar with cannot generate asset bubbles. This may sound stupid but the rule is "first, do no harm". In this case, doing no harm meant letting this bubble grow.

Also, imagine the political backlash of taking away the punch bowl when people were just beginning to party. If you will take it away, you better be damn sure that you know what you are doing. In this case, the Fed did not know.

Tell ya what folks, Ol' Honica may just be a Guinea pig for HP. I'll know by the end of the month, but it's possible I may sell my house real shortly. I bought last June (had to, wife got internship away from previous residence) so according to some, I should lose my ass right? Stay tuned.

"Also, imagine the political backlash of taking away the punch bowl when people were just beginning to party. If you will take it away, you better be damn sure that you know what you are doing. In this case, the Fed did not know."

Hey anonymous, that is their job, thats why the appointments outlast presidencies. It was just incompetence and covering bushes ass so that he would get reelected in 2004.

That's a good point Keith. It could be that money leaving the housing market has found it's way into equities. Maybe we're heading for stock bubble number 2. The longer this housing bubble takes to unfold the less impact it will have. National median home prices are only down 2%. The builders are quickly liquidating inventory. With each passing day the soft landing thesis gains ground. This is what concerns me.

RE: Why ? Why did the Fed keep interest rates down to 1% for almost 1 year 11/2003 to 11/2004 and below 1 1/2 % prior to 11/2003 for a long time?

I've read up on the Fed's professed rule for setting interest rates - The Taylor rule - see :http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2006/FF+October+2006.htmAs ever, the issue is what you assume the constant to be - Potential GDP in this case which is just a insertion of the Laffer Curve theory - i.e. "full" employment. Setting that aside, I inverted that rule and used it to divine what the real rate of interest was that the Feds delivered by setting the funds rate so low ( the official policy is that they want to deliver a 2% real rate for short term money).clearly they were delivering less than that about 1 1/2%. So I call it a tax hike of 25% on those with money - MONEY not capital. So why tax the ones with money ?

Whether I use laissez-faire theory(self-interest), Marxist class interest theory or psychological )venality) theory, Mao's Three Worlds theory or Lenin's Theory of Imperialism - last stage of capitalism, I'm still lead to using "Follow the Money" as the investigative tool - with a kink - not just who stood to make lots but also who that had a lot didn't lose very much.

So who was cash rich and capital poor ? and who was the opposite.

I've no definitive idea - mainly because I can't figure out yet how to separate out capital and money from the various statistics. my guess, not backed by data is that it was American financial institutions who were capital rich, cash poor - and Japanese and Chinese who were the opposite. ergo the Japanese and Chinese banks got screwed and the American ones didn't.That just tranfers the question though. - Why did the Japanese in particular let it happen to them. Its gotta be the monopoly of force that the US has and because the Japanese don't and need the protection.

So after all that analysis, I could just say that America runs a protection racket and when the enterprise got in trouble they just shook down the neighbourhood moneybags. Which any secondary school male kid could have told you based on his experiences with school bullies.

The housing stocks are not crashing because they can still build houses at a profit because their prices have been so obscenely high. Even a 30% drop in prices lets them make a profit probably.

That means they will continue to sell houses. That they are letting go of land options only means they themselves are refusing to pay outrageous prices for land. They will find cheaper land and continue to build.

The real suckers who will be left holding the bag are the mortgage companies, REITs and investors in mortgage backed securities. Those are the people who will be paying for the upcoming tsunami of defaults. Oh sweet justice as these lenders were the primary source of the housing bubble to begin with.

Until the Federal Reserve bites the bullet and raises interest rates (making money more expensive, raising its value) we will continue to slide toward Weimar Republic. When the Fed does increase interest rates it will hasten the housing bubble implosion.

Why? Because politicians faced with a mob of "the world owes me a living" millions cannot raise taxes, nor can they shrink the government payroll and benefits.

The result, the choose the sneaky way out which is to simply print more money. By virtue of the fact that this is an indirect sleight of hand the average person doesn't make the connection. The connection is, must be, more dollars chasing the same resources. This can only lead to each resource owning more dollars, ergo higher prices, inflation. It's a simple mathematical ratio.

The Chinese are going to be left holding the biggest bag in history if they continue to accumlate dollars. Amateur capitalists have no business holding a trillion dollars.

M3 rate of growth is higher than before the elections! The powers that be may be greedy, but they aren't stupid. The Bank of Japan is doing the same thing and the carry trade is revving up for another round of "free" money lending.

Mortgage interest rates are coming down -- there will be no HP meltdown/disaster for at least two more years. Don't fight the Fed.

"The Chinese are going to be left holding the biggest bag in history if they continue to accumlate dollars. Amateur capitalists have no business holding a trillion dollars."

A trillion in worthless money is far better than blood in the streets and millions dead or wounded. That is exactly what they face if their economy suddenly contracts and hundreds of millions of workers are jobless. And don't forget the Olympics are just two years away, do you honestly think the PRC is going to do anything to mess that up? Talk about losing face, they will do anything to keep them on track.

No, the "bankers" in Beijing will just keep filing away those IOUs and loading those Wal-Mart containers on the big ships.

Yes, that is part of the equation, but you also have the available credit and lowered lending standards fueling this market.

Phoenix and Vegas are anomalies in the housing markets, not the norm. If the Fed and the BoJ can drive mortgage interest rates down 1 to 2 points, we will see the same thing nationwide. Is a false boom any different than the real thing for people living in the moment?

Not the big one. This is a housing market correction. It's gonna be a big correction, like 1987 was for the stock market, but the big crash won't come for another decade.

BTW, the correction is not over. Inventory may be dropping slightly in actual terms, but seasonally adjusted, it is still through the roof. The RE correction will continue in 2007 and a year from now we may, repeat may, start hitting a bottom. But those who think we have already reached a bottom are dreaming.

HP fans keep waiting for somebody to take away the punch bowl and turn out the lights on this party. It ain't happening! Open your eyes and look around - the banks are lending like crazy, China and Japan are buying all the treasury debt we issue, and wages are going up as inflation kicks in.

If you use Phoenix as a guide, then yes, you see a terrible HP and years of doom. The world is a lot bigger than Phoenix boys and girls.

The stats speak for themselves. You can pass off what people say, predict, expect...but stats are the only sure thing.

If you live in an overpriced area (bubble market), then you reap what you sow, such as yourself. However, if you happen to wisely live in a reasonable area, such as myself, then you won't be affected. You actually stand to make a nice dollar off real estate.

BTW - you should never take anyone's word for anything - economists, Fed, chairman of boards - just let the numbers speak for themselves. You'll see, the misery you feel now will soon be over.

At this time of year, I turn to my clients to thank them for continuing to patronize Zip Realty's website. We are always looking for ways to improve our services and pride ourselves on delivering the most comprehensive tools for our customers who are searching for a home.

Of course, I would love to take our service a step further and help you find and purchase your home, it's the only way I can offer you a nice year end cash bonus (20% of my commission) to help you with your home purchase.

I am working every day for the remainder of the year, except Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day. Please call me with your real estate needs.

There is one economist and one stock market analyst warning of the same.

Ravi BatraJoe Granville

Batra has been warning about the housing market bubble, meltdown and the way it will work its way through the financial markets for quite a while. Granville was just recently interviewed and had noting good to say about the amount of risk in the stock market today. Their arguments make sense to me so I'm not touching either with a ten foot pole.

Don't count on it. They may have hit the wall last week with the Tresury falling short in its bond sales by by $5 billion dollars. Someone is starting to question the wisdom of continuing the relationship the same way ... and it ain't the Treasury.

Whoever made the above quote, I would invite you to go look at this website.http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/

Take a look at the Treasury constant maturities. See anything funky? Short term money is more expensive than much longer term money - that is called an interest rate inversion in the banking world and it is a great predictor / indicator for recession / depression. It has a track record of about 95% accuracy in making that prediction. It is not a person, it is just numbers. They don't have opinions or emotions - they just are what they are. The longer they remain inverted, the more accurate they are in the recession prediction. They've been inverted for several months now - not good. Read up on it if you haven't and you might want to rethink that statement.

WE are all too hasty to call the bottom. Remember, the Bulk of ARMS and Option ARM Mortgages have yet to reset.

2007 will see the TSUNAMI (sic?) wash ashore. About the same time the extra 20,000 National Guard troops leave home for thier 2nd 18 month active duty tour.(with that 50% pay cut how can they keep up as homedebtors?)

honica is right: "...how inflated is the dollar now compared to the year 2000?"

Take a look at how many other things have doubled in dollar value. Look at commodities,look at insurance costs, look at the cost of food, look at the purchasing power of the dollar when you find yourself outside of the country.

Since recessions are politically incorrect, Greenspan was a good little servant and perpetually kept the economy afloat by pumping up liquidity and interfering with the market's ability to set interest rates. At strategic points, the Fed has discontinued the 30 yr T bond, hidden M3 and some have argued they've dabbled in the gold and futures markets. Who knows what else they've been doing?

When Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1%, it forced money out of savings and into the market place in search of rates of return that would support survival. But the crash in dollar value has not been uniform. Because of China and India, wage rates have not kept pace. So, just as in the Weimar Republic, the working class eschews constructive effort which can no longer support them and instead turns to speculation. They've learned to look for a rising trend - and bet on it!

This has as much to do with free markets as Bush does with spreading Democracy. We've been massivley ripped off!

Oh, Keith, as to your question of Why, why did Greenspan, et al, inflate the bubble? The answer is simple: inflation and financial bubbles benefit those who own assets, i.e. the wealthy, deflation hurts those who own assets, so when given the choice of hurting the wealthy or benefitting the wealthy, which one do you suppose Greenspan would choose? Remember, this is the same guy who pushed through the payroll tax hike in the mid 80's (in the name of social security reform)which created the largest tax burden on the middle class this country has ever experienced. Greenspan is an aristocrat, first and foremost, and economist is just his cloak. He has consistently pushed policies that widen the wealth gap, and he has had many compatriots in that respect. The housing bubble will hurt alot of lower to middle income people who will end up as debt slaves, but the folks like Bob Toll, the CEOs of construction companies and banks and mortgage brokerages and financial services companies and credit card companies, well, they'll all make out like bandits, which is what makes Greenspan smile when he goes to sleep at night.

I doubt that Greenspan's motives have anything to do with jews and gentiles. There are thousands of jewish folks who will be obliterated by the housing bubble (I personally know quite a few who bought and over-leveraged themselves into the bubble hook, line, and sinker), and there are many, many gentiles who will be taking their cash and running home to Bermuda. Greenspan just did things to benefits the boardroom cliques, no matter what their ethnicity was. As to why? Well, so he could be handsomely paid off, worshipped by, and become/remain part of those cliques himself. That's just greed and self-interest at play, something that is a failing of humankind in general, and not the sole auspice of any ethinicty and/or religion.

Funny how a friend I work with just said to another co-worker that the housing has hit the bottom and is on its way up again! The co-worker (accountant) just looked at him and said I thought it was just getting started. The friend is a dreamer and lives with his head in the sand. In fact I told him months ago that housing was going to take a shit and he blew me off. I reminded him again when I asked him if his house had sold which has been on the market for over a year. Took it in the ass with ernest money on a new house he wanted to buy. Funny thing is the house initially appraised at over $435K, one year later it was re-appraised at $320K, but he was unwilling to drop the price of his own house as he needed the money to pay off other debts and put enough down on the new house to be able to afford the mortgage. Oh well...

"Richard Daughty says, the 'bull market is manufactured from rampant government deficit-spending and financed by the Federal Reserve creating the money.'

Most of the focus is on the Fed printing presses but I wish equal time were given to the role war and government spending plays. Especially black box budgets. It's really at the root of the problem. Same mess occurred when Vietnam was financed through the back door.

The stock market is based on hot air. Money pumping, mergers and acquisition, leveraged debt, derivatives etc.What people are really missing is the collapse of the real productive economy as a result of 40 years of this speculative unregulated financial parasite eating everything it can get it's hands on.

Are you talking average existing house appeciation/depreciation across the entire U.S.? If so, I have no idea, I only KNOW my local market, and only somewhat know some markets that I have written loans in. My local market is still selling at an average of about 10% more than last year excluding the million dollar plus mostrosities.

First Honica, where do you live for a point of reference?Do you believe you'll have problems selling your house?

Here is that list of home appreciation from 1997-2005, from highest to lowest,

South Africa up 244%, Ireland up 192%, Britain upp 154%, Spain up 145%, Australia up 114%, France up 87%, Swedon up 84%, Holland up 76%, the USA up 73%.

Based on the Economists statistics how do you determine if the USA has hit the top yet when other countries that have smaller populations and GDP are much more expensive for housing?

Also if a million houses are built a year does that even keep pace with population growth, the growing number of obsolete houses (Yes, like cars the US builds houses that won't last fifty years) how will that slacken demand? Population shifts? Lots of places are dying and have cheap houses that can't attract new residents. Maybe the 26 bubble markets indicate that too many people are moving?

Fox, I live in SW Missouri. Some markets in the U.S. have obviously hit top and are now going down. Others were not as badly infested with slimeball, sleezebag, speculating slumlords. Mine happens to fall into the latter. I don't expect to have any trouble selling, the house across the street just sold in less than 60 days for 25k more than I paid for mine a year ago, they are cookie cutters.

I haven't read any of the other comments before I post, so forgive me if this is a repeat.

I was under the understanding that the fed does not set mortgage rates. That they are determined by global money markets or something, and the Fed only has an indirect influence on them. Is this correct?

If so, how should the fed have prevented the bubble? They can't inact legislation to stop high risk mortgages.

Maybe I don't understand economics that well, but I think you might be laying too much blame on the Fed. Surely they could have sounded alarm bells and tried to get peoples attention, which they did to a ceartain extent (see "froth" and "irrational exuberance" quotes from Greenspan), but I'm not sure what more they should have done.

I will never forget the day I heard Greenspan tell Congress that "lenders should not be overly sensitive to borrower qualifications". Clearly, that was a signal to lend without recourse - and lenders subsequently went insane, their profits shot to the moon. That slime Greenspan deserves 99% of the blame for turning a basic necessity into an out of control free for all. I give greed and stupidity the other 1%.

To understand who he was, you have to go back to another time when the world was powered by the black fuel and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel. Gone now swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all.

Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.

Except for one man armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything and became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here in this blighted place that he learned to live again.

On paper, all those that own gold might end up with 50% of their percieved investment when the truth comes out. Just like a printing press for the dollar, the stockpiles of gold is an illusion to - so unless you have it in your dresser drawer, don't count on it as being real either.

Honica, be grateful you live in a non-bubble state. Moving out of Missouri? Where? A bubble state? Your pen name is curious, are you a secret transvestite? I mean a lot of folk will think you a women instead of a man. Was Honica the name of the jewish you dated and dumped you and gave you your rage against jews? I think you mentioned once your ex was a jew so isn't your current hatred suspect?

Let me see, in a real economic meltdown why would I want gold? During WWII people traded anything of value for food. My neighbors in Germany told me people would give up a grand piano for a sack of potatoes. Art treasures, gold,silver, gems, all fetched very little when traded to farmers for food.

Barter becomes the medium of exchange when society collapses. You can't eat gold. You'll get richer trading food. Many people made a fortune because they had a surplus in food (farmers in Germany for example) so would gladly trade a pig for a car. I'd say you are better off buying farm land now as a place to escape if society collapses so you could at least grow food for your family.

One of my favorite authors was Scott and Heln Nearing. They were communists and pacifists during WWI and WWI. During the great depression they fled NY City for Vermont where they bought a small farm and bartered maple syrup to survive. His book "The Making of a Radical" is an excellent book on our capitalist society and how we all so willingly traded our farms to factory jobs so we could buy canned food instead of grow our own.

I don't know who is claiming that houses have fallen a few %. My cousin is trying to sell his house in NJ and he is not able to get the asking price of $1.1 million that the last two buyers got last summer in that development. The best offer he has is $750k which he ppaid in 2002. Owes the bank 600k. Lot of grief. Lost his business not making money. Thinks we are all a@@holes for not helping him out. Told him to price it for $999,999 last JUly and get out while he can.

Obvioulsy you will also be better off having some land so that you can sustain yourself food wise.

But whoever thinks gold/silver is worthless has rocks in their heads.....and playing straight into the central bankers end game. They want you to believe that gold is worthless, so they can amass all the wealth to themselves.

Don't be stupid......gold and silver should always be part of your portfolio. My bet is to have at least 5% and at most 10% of my worth in PHYSICAL gold. I couldn't care what the price is. Strictly for survivalist purposes.

:My bet is to have at least 5% and at most 10% of my worth in PHYSICAL gold.

Correct, when I'd first bought gold, at the start of the '02 bear market, I'd placed 20% of my portfolio in it. Without counting any of my other brokerage account gains via trading, that gold is now a third of my net worth against my pool of savings. Nowadays, the best strategy for wealth accumulation is to buy gold during the dips and to swing trade the markets, up or down, but never fall for the old 'buy and hold' horseshit of the 80s and 90s as far as equities go.