Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Membership Decline in the Southern Baptist Convention

Every year the new edition of the Yearbook of American and
Canadian Churches publishes the membership figures for all the Christian
denominations in the USA [1]. Heading up the list of protestant churches is the
Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), very much the flagship denomination of
Evangelicalism [2]. However, despite a century of strong growth, the SBC has
turned a corner and is now showing an annual decline in membership. Decline was
once the province of the liberal churches; the conservative ones typified by
growth [3]. Not surprisingly such decline in the heartland of American
Evangelical Christianity has not gone without note [4].

Back in 2002 I applied the Limited Enthusiasm model [5] of
church growth to a number of USA denominations, including the SBC. At that
point the model showed that the SBC had experienced the sort of growth
associated with revivals, but it had slowed before 2000. The model predicted
growth would continue to slow and would be followed in the 2000s by a small
decline.That decline would be a
natural phenomenon called overshoot, often seen when there has been previous
rapid growth.

Overshoot occurs in a population when it exceeds its natural
equilibrium value, often caused by its growth mechanism depending on a smaller
subset of the population than that which governs its decline [6]. The
subsequent decline ultimately causes the population, the church in this case,
to re-balance at its equilibrium value, albeit over timescales of many
generations.

The SBC result was published in a paper in 2005 [7]. So with
news of that denomination’s actual decline, I was keen to apply the model again
to see if the decline matched the predictions. If so, the decline in the SBC
could be a temporary re-balancing, rather than the start of a long-term trend.

Membership SBC 1980-2012

To get a sense of perspective I will look at the SBC data
from 1980 onwards in comparison to earlier figures.Figure 1 shows membership from 1950 [8]. The growth of the
SBC is impressive, and the decline from 2006 is quite small by comparison. This
is not a church that is going to disappear in the next 20 years!

Figure 1: Membership of the SBC from 1950-2012

To get an idea of how much of this growth was making inroads
into converting the USA population, the membership figures are compared with
the population, expressed as a percentage (figure 2). This graph looks less
dramatic, showing that the SBC has been losing ground on a growing population
since the 1980s. Its downturn from 2006 is not just a result of factors in the
21st century, but must include the outworking of forces at least 20
years earlier. The SBC should have been growing much faster that it was in the
1970s and 1980s to have been considered a strongly growing denomination.

Figure 2: Membership of the SBC as a Percentage of the USA Population

That this membership percentage had been rising up to 1980
indicates that conversions were a significant part of its growth prior to that
date. There is no evidence that I am aware of that family size among SBC members
was significantly larger than the USA norm, the other possible cause.

Before going any further it should be noted that the largest
protestant denomination in the USA, the SBC in this case, has never been much
more than 6% of the population. The strength of Christianity in the USA lies in
its diversity rather than in a single denomination, in marked contrast to
European countries.

Data Fitting

To compare the Limited Enthusiasm model with the data,
the1980 figure is taken as the starting point. The data fitting technique
treats all points equally, so starting earlier will give the past too much
priority over recent figures.As
the aim is to see if the decline is a natural outworking of the previous growth
the data fitting is stopped in 2006 but the model is allowed to run to 2012 to
compare with actual data.

Because some parameters in the model are difficult to
estimate, a range of scenarios are produced, based on whether they predict a
moderate growth, or a small decline, between 2006 and 2012. Two such scenarios
are given in figure 3, and compared with membership figures [9]. All data fits
up to 2006 indicate the church is well above the extinction threshold. However
it is clear that even the most pessimistic scenario cannot explain the post
2006 downturn.

If the cause of the downturn is not overshoot resulting from
the prior rapid growth, then what could be its cause? I suggest three:

1.The leaving rate from the SBC is increasing. If
the leaving rate steadily increases from 5% in 2006 to 5.8% in 2012 then this
is sufficient to explain the data. A higher leaving rate could be due to members
switching to more contemporary churches, or even to more liberal churches; the
former being more likely given the even faster decline of the liberal ones.

2.The ability of the SBC to make converts has been
falling. This could be due to a lack of confidence among members of the SBC
undermining their witness, or an increasing sense of intimidation by
non-Christian society.

3.The general population is becoming less open to
the SBC, whether other Christians who could potentially join, or unbelievers.
Either way a greater proportion of non-SBC people are hostile to the SBC.

The decline could be a combination of all three effects [10,11].

If the leaving rate continues to rise, as suggested by the
recent data, then the effect on the SBC membership figures will be dramatic
(curve 1. figure 4). The church will drop to almost 12 million by 2025, well
below its 1980 figure. If the cause is falling conversion rate (curve 2, figure
4), or an increasing hardening rate of potential converts (curve 3, figure 4)
the decline is more dramatic, under 12 million by 2025.

Figure 4: Scenarios to Explain SBC Decline

Conclusion

If the SBC is not to see serious decline, the source of its
drop in membership figures needs to be identified and dealt with. However the
model shows that small changes in the parameters can make significant
differences in the numbers in the church, thus there will be realistic measures
that will improve the parameters and halt the decline. As the SBC is one of the
most successful denominations in the USA, has clear beliefs and a commitment to
mission, there seems no reason to believe it will not do what is needed to see
more conversions and to keep people in church. As such there is no reason why
the pessimistic scenarios of figure 4 should happen, provided action is taken
now and not delayed.

[6] The hypothesis of the limited enthusiasm model is that
growth is primarily caused by a subset of the population, called enthusiasts,
who are responsible for the conversion of those outside the church. Typically
enthusiasts are a small proportion of the church. However decline results from
people leaving, which affects the whole church, a much larger number of people.
Conversion slows when the number of enthusiasts starts dropping, but losses do
not drop immediately as the church is still large. Thus the church sees a period
of net decline after its rapid growth

Overshoot can also occur if growth is dominated by births
rather than conversion. This is a cohort effect due to changing birth rates and
the delay between deaths and births.

[7] A General Model of Church Growth and Decline,
John Hayward, Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 29(3), pp.177-207, 2005.

[8] Membership figures for the SBC from 2004 are obtained
from the Southern Baptist Annual Reports, http://www.sbcec.org/.
Earlier figures are obtained from adherents.com, http://www.adherents.com/, who use a variety of published sources.

[11] On a technical note, observe that the down turn in the
membership data after the highest point in 2006 is faster, or more curved, then
the approach to that point. In social diffusion theory such a turning point is
normally explained by a single feedback loop that changes the way it impacts on
the population variables; it flips polarity. The result is a symmetrical curve.
In the case of the SBC data the down turn is more curved than the growth side,
suggesting at least one more process has come into play, possibly another
feedback loop. Thus the effect is most likely persistent. Identifying the new
processes with certainty would require detailed knowledge of conversion and
leaving rates.

2 comments:

Wow this is shocking news, that in twenty years time the SBC could be the third largest church denomination in the United States. My two cents is that they should focus on Christ's teachings versus bashing other churches. People see that and find it off putting.

Thank you for your comment. It is true many congregations in the SBC have an apologetic ministry often aimed at other Christian groups, as apologetics tends to be. It is not clear whether that has a detrimental effect on recruitment/retention (putting people off - or sidetracking SBC from evangelism), or a positive effect (it could attract people looking for certainties and recruit from other churches). Both are reasonable suppositions, but the data is not there to distinguish.

There is rarely just one cause of decline. In the SBC's case the changing context of secularity in the USA, more competition from new paradigm & charismatic churches, some self satisfaction leading to less missionary zeal, appealing less to younger people, and changing racial demographics are probably all in the mix.