The Odds of a Supreme Court Vacancy in Obama’s Second Term

President Barack Obama raised eyebrows on Monday when he implied that he would get another chance to appoint a Supreme Court justice before his term runs out.

Mr. Obama made the suggestion at a Democratic Senate Campaign Committee fundraiser on Martha’s Vineyard, where he’s been vacationing. Here’s what he said:

What’s preventing us from getting things done right now is you’ve got a faction within the Republican Party that thinks solely in terms of their own ideological purposes and solely in terms of how do they hang on to power. And that’s a problem. And that’s why I need a Democratic Senate. Not to mention the fact that we’re going to have Supreme Court appointments, and there are going to be a whole host of issues that many people here care about that are going to be determined by whether or not Democrats retain the Senate.

An unidentified White House official told Politico’s Josh Gerstein that the president’s remarks were intended “to convey the important role the Senate would play in the event of a Supreme Court vacancy.”

If history is any judge, though, it’s not unreasonable to assume that Mr. Obama will have at least one more high-court vacancy to fill in his remaining 891 days in office.

Since 1789, 43 men have served as president across 56 four-year terms. By Law Blog’s count*, 46 of those 56 terms — or 82% — overlapped with at least one Supreme Court vacancy. Subtract George Washington’s administration, and the figure is still above 80%. (The most recent vacancy-free term was President George W. Bush‘s first four years in office.)

At the moment, no Supreme Court justice has tipped his or her hand about retirement plans. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who is 81, has been the subject of the most speculation, but she said last month that she’s “likely to remain for a while.”

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