Entertainment

MediaPredict Lets You Bet on Who Makes it to the Head of the Tail

MediaPredict is a new site that gives you $5,000 of its currency to bet on what media will make it big. It is, in effect, leveraging the longtail to indicate the success of media making it to the head of the tail, and looking to gain attention from traditional media companies, which are always eager for market research.

With MediaPredict, the music, book, or film that looks promising is shown on the site, and users can buy or sell shares according to how well they think this type of media will do. For instance, you can see folk singer Ingrid Michaelson's submission, read the provided information and even watch a few videos to determine if you think she has a chance of getting a major record deal by September 30th. Once you've determined if the existing market value is high or low, you can buy or sell a certain amount of shares based on your opinion, or set your own price. A similar service is Gottabet.

Some submissions, such as book proposals, are approved by a literary agent and not MediaPredict, but all submissions must go through an approval process before making it onto the site. MediaPredict only shows media that actually has a chance. MediaPredict is also strict about the approval process and agreement between its site and authors, as sending in a proposal could mean gaining an actual deal. In this sense, MediaPredict is similar to those hopefuls that use a site like Vator.tv to pitch their ideas to people that matter.

MediaPredict is looking to take collective intelligence into account for providing a true bellwether for how media will perform in an actual market. Incorporating a wiki for existing submissions would aid in this type of collective intelligence, as other users could provide more information on an artist or author. Having this information could greatly determine your bet, and could save time on doing your own research.

There are also other factors to consider, such as the sample size of users participating on MediaPredict, confirmation traps, and other dynamics such as multiple profiles made by one person, or groups of people intentionally skewing data. If MediaPredict ends up becoming a service that lets users bet with real money, as indicated in its FAQs, these are all factors to address.

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