Series Preview: The Not So Amazin’ Mets

In this, the final week of the season, the angst level rises (if that’s possible) as the Reds build on the weekend series win at Pittsburgh and hope the Cardinals stumble against the Nationals, Cubs or better yet—both. While we lament the Reds’ Jekyll & Hyde offense, dubious game management and ever-present health issues, be glad you’re not this fan:

My confession
For the past week, I have been keeping the MLBTR Reverse Standings page open as a tab, and consult it throughout the day, dreaming of scenarios where we somehow vault/fall to sixth worse, or go on an ultimately meaningless winning streak and end up 11th, again (sob!) thus losing our 1st round pick and the bonus pool money when we sign Choo, who proceeds to forget how to hit ala [Jason] Bay. That’s my nightmare.

—Typical Mets’ Fan, 2013

It could be so much worse, Reds fans.

The Mets and their fans are playing out the string in another in a series of forgettable Septembers. As discussed the last time these two teams played, the post-Bernie Madoff Era has wreaked havoc on the once free spending big market Metropolitans. The 2013 Mets at full strength were hardly something to be feared. The last half of the season has seen them fairly snake bitten. One of two stars remaining in the Flushing firmament, Matt Harvey is the second coming of Tom Terrific or Doc Gooden—take your pick. Having suffered a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, he’s now attempting to stare down the cold steel of the scalpel, by choosing a strengthening program to rehab the elbow in a last-ditch effort to avoid the almost inevitable Tommy John surgery. Starter Jon Niese has come back from a partially torn rotator cuff via rehab. Closer Bobby Parnell has had surgery on a herniated disc and is lost for the season. Zack Wheeler, another young stud pitching prospect the Mets obtained from the SF Giants two years ago in exchange for Carlos Beltran, has had to be shut down because of a stiff shoulder. Wheeler says he is sure there is no structural damage. Nick Masset thought the same thing, yeah? David Wright has missed playing time because of a balky hammy and has just returned this weekend against the Phillies. Ruben Tejada, the offensively-challenged shortstop and proud owner of the .202/.259/.260 slash line and 47 wRC+, broke his leg last week.

New York hopes to make a splash in the upcoming free agent market. Both Troy Tulowitzki and our own Shin-Soo Choo have been targeted by local scribes and fans as potential future Mets. But, that’s next year. What’s left of this year’s club is a shell of a baseball team that is playing for pride and pride alone. Teams such as these are dangerous because losing holds no fear for them. They know the Reds need a sweep. Expect manager Terry Collins, who has done a pretty good job molding a team with very little clay to work with, to pull out all the stops in order to ruin Cincinnati’s division title dreams.

Here is your NY Mets offense. If you recognize too many of these names, you may need to get a life:

Player

Pos

G

AVG

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

OPS

Young, E

LF

141

.248

2

29

.311

.338

.649

Flores, W

3B

27

.211

1

13

.248

.295

.542

Murphy, D

2B

154

.284

12

73

.317

.410

.728

Brown, A

RF

65

.231

7

24

.286

.413

.698

Duda, L

1B

93

.229

14

31

.352

.421

.773

Lagares, J

CF

115

.254

4

33

.293

.370

.664

Recker, A

C

47

.212

6

19

.274

.402

.675

Tovar, W

SS

1

.500

0

1

.500

.500

1.000

With Bobby Parnell gone, LaTroy Hawkins (ERA 3.01, 12 SV, 1.17 WHIP) has taken over the Closer duties. Scott Atchison, Victor Black, Tim Byrdak, David Aardsma and Sean Henn are the current crop in this revolving door relief corps.

The Starting Pitching for the series sets up thusly (ERA+ is ERA measured against the league average, benchmarked at a value of 100. Over 100 is better than average, below 100, worse. It is adjusted for variances in ballpark):

Pitcher

W

L

ERA

ERA+

IP

BB

SO

WHIP

Monday 7:10

Johnny Cueto, RHP

5

2

3.02

129

53.2

15

46

1.08

Aaron Harang, RHP

5

12

5.69

64

131.1

32

105

1.33

Tuesday 7:10

Mike Leake, RHP

14

6

3.21

121

190.2

48

120

1.22

Jonathon Niese, LHP

7

8

3.81

94

130.0

45

97

1.45

Wednesday 12:35

Greg Reynolds, RHP

1

2

5.55

71

24.1

5

9

1.44

Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP

2

3

5.52

66

31.0

14

27

1.35

After throwing 82 pitches in his first outing since returning from the Disabled List, the Reds are looking to stretch Cueto out further in an effort to get him ready for a rotation spot in the playoffs. I’ve heard no concern about this plan, which frankly, seems cavalier given Johnny’s recent history. It wasn’t long ago that everyone was wondering how Cueto could possibly be stretched out in time for the post-season with so few days left. Now, they are suddenly more than willing to have him throwing 100 pitches after a scant one game? Dusty Baker has said that Cueto is not subject to a pitch count tonight.

It’s deeply ironic that his mound opponent will be Aaron Harang. Harang saw his 2008 season ruined during a short time period in late-May, early-June, when he overworked his arm beginning with a 63-pitch relief stint one day after starting, then taking his next turn on short rest. Harang threw a total of 239 pitches in 8 days. Harang, a workhorse of a pitcher, wasn’t hurt because he threw too many pitches, he was damaged as a result of being asked to throw too many pitches in a compressed time span; a brief, overwhelming workload that caused arm and shoulder fatigue, forcing a change in mechanics, resulting in injury.

Cueto hadn’t been in the rotation since June 29 when he stepped on the bump in Houston on September 16. The mechanics of his delivery have been a matter of some debate. It seems crazy to have him potentially throwing 170-180 pitches in 7 days so soon after spending all those weeks inactive because of a strained lat muscle. Dialing it back to 50-60 pitches in his last start and keeping him at 80 or below during tonight’s start would have seemed the more prudent approach. Someone please explain to me how a problem of not enough time to stretch out the Reds’ ace has suddenly become no problem at all.

The Mets are 9-12 in September, 3 of those victories coming in their weekend sweep of the Phillies.

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69 thoughts on “Series Preview: The Not So Amazin’ Mets”

I really don’t understand the decision to start Reynolds on Wednesday. If they hold Latos back to the Pirates series, he wouldn’t be available to pitch a possible 163rd game on Monday nor the scheduled wild card game on Tuesday.

@Greg Dafler:
I find this pretty strange as well. I do not think it is a coincidence that Latos and Bailey were not sharp coming off 6 days rest.
It was pretty dumb considering what happened Wed, but it pretty much worked out.
Latos should pitch Wed, then Cueto could get a turn Sunday to see what he has got.

Could stack your rotation should you win with Latos in the play-in, have a follow up with Bailey in game 1 and game 5 if necessary. 2 play-in games needed, then you got Latos and possibly Bailey

If the Reds cannot re-sign Choo, Tulo would be the best free agent the Reds could pick up. Move him to 3B. Frazier to LF. I forgot Tulo will be a FA.
Can you imagine Tulo batting 4th and hitting in 81 games at GABP?
1. BHam
2. BPhillips
3. Votto
4. Tulo
5. Bruce
6. Cozart
7. Mez
8. Frazier

No more Jekyll & Hyde offense. One FA signing and no trades needed to achieve it.

“The Rockies are not shopping all-stars Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, sources with direct knowledge of the club’s plans told Troy Renck of the Denver Post. There’s still a very small possibility that one will be dealt to address multiple needs, but there is zero likelihood that both will be moved. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Rockies ownership doesn’t have much interest in moving either player.”

@al:
I think your right. I didn’t think he was going to be a FA. Maybe Richard mention it above as a potential Mets trade target and not a FA target. I made the quick assumption of being a FA. Either way, Tulo would make a great addition to the Reds offense. But in a trade, it would cost many prospects. More than what it cost to obtain Latos I’m afraid.
Thanks for getting me straight on that. Big difference.

@WVRedlegs: Yeah, I thought the same when I first read it, had to check myself.

Seeing Tulo and BP together in the all-star game, I had fantasies about them playing together for the Reds. But the deal to get him would be crazy.

The thing about it is that if the Rockies want the other team to take on $20mil per year, they can’t ask for a package of multiple, top, MLB-ready prospects like the Padres got for Latos. They could only get that because Latos was young and cost-controlled. Also, there’s his injury history to consider.

So I think the Reds could get Tulo, but it would mean Big Bob spending a ton more money that he probably can’t. Something like Cozart, Hamilton, and a pitching prospect might be enough, if the Reds took on all of the salary.

“Here is your NY Mets offense. If you recognize too many of these names, you may need to get a life:”

Hilarious! This home series vs the Mets should go swimmingly. I know the Reds need to take care of their proverbial business but my anxiety is solely on outcomes of the Cardinals’ games at this point. Wainwright vs Roark. Roark’s been a stud and he looks like Trey Parker so maybe he gets the slight edge in the match-up if he can “psyche out” a few Cards.

The way it shakes out now would be Cueto pitching the WC game? With Reynolds going on Wed, Latos and Homer would pitch this weekend and not be available on Tuesday unless they pitch Latos on 4 days rest.

This pitching rotation is whacky. Dusty says that they have 3 scenarios, and my hope is that this is just a bit of gamesmanship.

The Reds need a sweep, and Reynolds gives us the worst chance to win of any starter. As mentioned above, it also throws off the rotation for the WC game.

If they have any chance for the sweep, I assume Latos will pitch. But also, if they don’t have a chance for the sweep, which means they’ll probably get the wildcard, they I also assume Latos will pitch. So basically, I assume Latos will pitch.

I really loved the Reynolds gamble in the Houston series, but this is just tempting fate. I just cannot figure out what’s happening here. Sure, home field for the Wild Card is important, but we just took 2 out of 3 in Pittsburgh. So, it’s not so important that we need to burn both Latos and Homer!

I don’t get the Reynolds starting on Wednesday thing either. I’m suprised it hasn’t been paid more attention. I mean, why in the world would Greg Reynolds be starting a game in the midst of a run for the division?

I agree that is makes no sense at all for Reynolds to take the mound in the last week. Unless you are Dusty Baker and you don’t want the conflict of moving your ace (Cueto) back in the rotation. He obviously does not like to mix things up. Cueto was his ace on Opening Day, so I’m sure in his mind, he is still his ace. I just hope he pitches well again tonight.

@Big Ed: I was trying to imagine a Blog where all we could talk about are the things we know for certain. Might be a little boring. It’s not like the Reds have a stellar record when it comes to diagnosing injuries either. My guess this decision has less to do with Price than the Reds crack medical staff.

@Big Ed: And I’m guessing you don’t know that Price ISN’T concerned. People get overruled in organizations all the time. Broxton pitched twice even as the medical staff and coaches knew he was in pain. The first time, it resulted in Broxton going immediately to the DL. The second time, it resulted in the end of his season. Perhaps they feel there is risk, but feel the need to roll the dice. I simply think it’s unnecessary.

You’re right tho, Ed, Bryan Price absolutely knows more about pitching than I do. I hadn’t been aware of that previously, but do now. Thanks for setting me straight.

I am frequently amused at the notion that these no-talent teams will come in and get swept. While sweeps are possible, they are hardly common. Reds need to concentrate on playing consistent baseball and get their bearings — particularly on defense and on the base running.

The only mentions of a sweep on this thread are to say that the Reds need a sweep. I think that is pretty true. They are 2 games back with 6 to play, and Cards aren’t likely to lose the rest of their games. If the Cards go 3 and 3, the Reds have to go 5 and 1 to tie. I’d say that means they need a sweep.

Hilarious! This home series vs the Mets should go swimmingly. I know the Reds need to take care of their proverbial business but my anxiety is solely on outcomes of the Cardinals’ games at this point. Wainwright vs Roark. Roark’s been a stud and he looks like Trey Parker so maybe he gets the slight edge in the match-up if he can “psyche out” a few Cards.

@CharlotteNCRedsFan: I know the internet makes most people sound like jerks, so I’m going to assume that you meant that in the nicest way possible.

I read the part that you quoted, and the fact of the matter is it doesn’t say anything about a sweep. It says that the poster is not worried about this series with the Mets. I don’t know what that means, because I didn’t post it, but it isn’t a fact that it says sweeping the Mets will be easy.

@al: I admit, by “swimmingly” he could have just meant two of three. I worry about the same thing he does: will the Reds play this series, the same way, as if it was the Cards or Pirates. As far as the fans being overconfident? As Chad says, “this team will break your heart”. But only if you let it.

Al, you have to admit that post sounded a little optimistic, to say the least. Can we agree on that at least?

@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Sure it was an optimistic post (thought not the post I was replying to).

I guess I would have framed it a little differently than RedManifesto (original poster), but the idea is the same. Do the Reds really need to win these games against the Mets if they want to win the division? Yes. Will beating the Mets matter if the Cardinals sweep the Nats? No.

The Cards are in the driver’s seat here, so I understand when he says that he’s really only worried about how those games go.

@CharlotteNCRedsFan: That’s a good point, this series obviously will have a huge impact on the WC game home field advantage. Since we’re tied with the Pirates and they’re playing the Cubs, if we lay an egg against the Mets, it’s likely that we’ll go into the final Pirates series behind them.

I think that with how well the Nats have been playing, it’s at least reasonable to think that the Cards might finish 3-3, by losing 2 of 3 to the Nats and taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs.

If we were to sweep the Mets and then take 2 of 3 from the Pirates again, we’d be tied. It’s a long shot, but not out of the question.

@Johnu1: Odd thing is, since the ASB we have handled the good teams very well but also-rans are giving the team fits. Just the opposite of the first half of the season. Go figure. I have some anxiety over the Met series. Thought I had seen where the have won 7 of their last ten. It would be a killer if the Cards lose 2 of 3 from the Nats and then we do the same with the Mets; I wouldn’t be shocked.

Apparently, Wainwright is scheduled to pitch Sunday vs. the Cubs unless they’ve already clinched, then they will hold him back for game 1 of the NLDS. That makes sense enough.

Where it gets interesting is if the Reds are 1 game out Sunday morning. Essentially, the Cards will have to decide if they want to play the Cubs for the division championship and use Wainwright up in the process or see how it plays out, and possibly end up facing us or the Pirates on Monday. Very intriguing.

@Sultan of Swaff: Yes, there are a lot of interesting moving parts in the decisions on who pitches down the stretch, for all three teams. And in some cases, the decisions can’t wait until Sunday. Any pitcher that starts a game Friday or after couldn’t pitch in a tie-breaker game or a Wild Card play-in game.

One big decision for the Reds is Wednesday. If the Reds want Latos to pitch the Wild Card play-in game (Bailey is already out of consideration because of where he falls in the rotation), then they’ll have to pitch Latos on Wednesday instead of Friday as planned.

@Steve Mancuso:
Latos gives the Reds a few more options/should they have to play Monday for the tie-breaker, Latos could pitch that as well, plus I would think a Latos pitching on normal rest Wed gives you a huge advantage over a journey man AAA pitcher.

For as maddening as this team has been this year, I just counted it up and we are 17-12 against teams going to the playoffs since July. That’s a .586 record. Not too shabby. If it wasn’t for some silly missteps against the Cubs and Brewers over that time we’d have the division locked up, but regardless it makes me like our chances in a wildcard game that much more. Hopefully we take care of the Mets and then take it to the Pirates again this weekend.

@Tennessee Red: If we tie St Louis for the division championship, there is a one-game tie-breaker that would be played in St. Louis by virtue of them winning the season series (obviously, overall record is tied because that’s what produces the need to have a playoff game).

Back to splitting up Bruce and Votto against even right-handed pitchers. Bruce is a MUCH, MUCH better hitter than Ludwick, especially right now. He ought to be higher in the order. Against RHP, Bruce OPS is .853, Ludwick is .671. Baker Tax.

Back to playing Hanigan most days, including now three in a row. Then, Baker will complain that Mesoraco is rusty when he hasn’t hit for three days in a row.

@Steve Mancuso: I seriously think Dusty just gets a laugh out of thinking its cool to write in L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R on the lineup card.

Never mind getting runs ahead of time, we always play for that 8th inning for when Terry Collins brings in his lefty specialist to get Votto and Bruce. Unfortunately, this archaic way of thinking will continue. I was starting to show some sign of hope that he had broken his old ways.

@reaganspad: As has been said before, even if we barely miss the playoffs that will not result in Dusty leaving. Too much money tied up in it and too many valid excuses given our injuries and whatnot this year. As for Hanigan suddenly getting all these starts over Mez.. it makes me wonder if Mez is hurt because that’s the only logical reason to not play the guy who has been performing the best for you this year as you head towards the playoffs.

@reaganspad: I don’t see the Reds letting Baker go with one year left on his contract, no matter what the outcome in Oct. I believe Castellini is very happy with Baker’s decision-making, whether it’s who bats second, keeping Votto and Bruce split up or playing Hanigan over Mesoraco.

I’ll bet he walks thru the clubhouse, sees a happy group and views that as a product of Baker’s leadership.

Sadly, I don’t think our dissatisfaction with the manager resonates. Next year at this time might be a different story.

@Richard Fitch: While I largely agree with your take on Castellini and Baker, you have to wonder if a loss in the Wild Card game or even the NLDS would weaken the owner’s attachment. You’re right that he can see some of the intangibles better than we can. But in the end, it’s also his money. Castellini is a lot of things and one of them is intensely competitive. The worst case would have been a collapse and not making the postseason. That’s now extremely unlikely. But if the team does worse than last year, would Castellini at least ask Jocketty about changing managers? I believe that if that question gets asked to that person, the Reds will have a new manager.

@Steve Mancuso: There is still $3 million guaranteed, isn’t there? Can’t see Castellini paying Dusty to sit at home or commentate on ESPN. I guess if we could get a replacement – Riggleman or Price – cheap?

@Steve Mancuso: I just don’t see the Front Office evaluating Baker the way we, the fans, do. The attendance is good, the team is competitive, it has a TV contract, gets plenty of national ink, has top players, popular announcers (really) and great sponsors.

We’re all bellyaching about the batting order. The owner defers to the manager for that and there hasn’t been any evidence of a clubhouse mutiny.

Bottom line: Dusty is under contract and he was put under contract because Castellini and Jocketty are happy with him.

His health may prevail; otherwise, I don’t see a change, no matter what this October.

@reaganspad:
Seriously about Hannigan, anybody know what are the splits (specifically for each pitcher), I know the belief is that he is the superior defensive catcher, but it seems that Mes has been throwing out a good portion of basestealers.

They both have slumped a bit, but Mes seems like such a better candidate to produce runs

@al: Mesoraco has been hurt, which may have contributed to his struggles at the plate. A lingering injury might also explain why Baker has played Hanigan more recently. On the other hand, maybe Devin has been slumping because of not getting as many at bats. Hard to say. But I think you’re on even weaker ground about calling games. When Hanigan was out and Mesoraco catching everyone except Homer, he did a great job with the pitching staff. I would have agreed with you a year ago, but not after what I saw this summer. That’s an area where catchers can improve fast with experience and I believe he did.

@Steve Mancuso: Agree with this 100% I too doubted Mez as far as pitch selection, getting along with pitchers, calling games.. whatever you want to call all the intangible stuff catchers do. This year though he showed he can not only do that stuff but do it quite well by all accounts. I think to really conclusively pass Hanigan in the non-offensive category he needs to prove he can cut down runners at 2nd with a little more regularity but other than that he’s made great strides this year.

@Steve Mancuso: I didn’t just say calling games, I said behind the plate. That means all aspects, like blocking pitches, throwing out runners, and framing. All the stuff a catcher does. I don’t even know how much of the game a catcher really calls anyway, since the pitcher can veto anything.

fangraphs says Hanigan has been slightly better defensively than Mesoraco this year. My eyes at least agree with that.

And, he’s gotten more plate appearances in the last 30 days than Hanigan, so the excuse of not getting enough PT to hit doesn’t add up.

At some point you have to earn it. Many posters on this site seem to give Mes a pass on that for some reason, and I don’t know why. I’m not saying bench him, because Hanigan isn’t playing well either, but no way am I going to get up in arms over Hanigan catching half the time. Until Mesoraco actually starts to hit (especially against righties), I’d rather go with the guy with experience and demonstrated skills.

@al: Half the time? This is three days in a row for Hanigan. And if we get to a playoff series, Hanigan is going to end up catching 66-75% of the starts. And he’s been awful offensively not just in the past 30 days, but all year.

@Eric the Red: I don’t know how to defend my “half the time” statement anymore than the cold hard facts I posted above. Last 30 days, 55 PA for Mes, 53 PA for Hanigan. What is that if not half? They don’t alternate every day.

@reaganspad: he hasn’t been an upgrade over the last month, he’s been terrible. that AB on friday was great, but it was the first good one he’s had in forever.

he was 2 for 4 in his last game, but that broke an 0 for 12. he had 3 hits in the game before that streak, but that broke an 0 for 13. his average in september is .184 and he has zero walks. none. that is terrible.

and i’m not even arguing that he should be benched. all i’m saying is i don’t get the love for a guy who looks 100% lost to me. right now he looks like the easiest out on the team, but everyone here wants to see him every day.

Mes still has potential and is a power threat at the plate. Hannigan is not. I have to think the Hannigan is also suffering from a lingering injury or that his bat has finally slowed to where he can’t produce.

Hannigan is a great guy, an intelligent player, and hard worker. Unfortunately, he’s just not that talented. Do players with great talent “lose it” faster than those without?

@WVRedlegs:
My reasoning for this is, Choo has 18 SB and 11 CS. Ludwick has 29 H and only 7 XBH. Thats 22 singles out of 29 hits. I’d rather see Votto with more 1st and 3rd at bats than just a runner on second or no runner on at all. Ludwick, like Phillips, is prone to some GIDP’s though.