How Donald Trump Could Become President

Convincing victories by political outsiders in New Hampshire demonstrate without doubt most voters are disgusted with both political parties. The electorate will probably make one of them—more likely Donald Trump—the next Commander in Chief.

Trump’s diverse appeal among Republicans and independents will be tough for Ted Cruz—who relies principally on religious conservatives and, with Rand Paul’s departure, libertarians—to counter beyond southern states. Perhaps not even those places—he is polling a bad second to Trump in South Carolina.

As for the very moderate Governor Kasich—endorsed in New Hampshire by both the New York Times and Boston Globe—he devoted enormous resources to that small state. With Governor Bush and Senator Rubio still in the mix, he won’t have the money to mount a successful southern strategy but could do decently enough in many of the 16 states holding contests on or before March 1 to be a king maker.

With five reasonably viable Republican candidates—Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Bush, and Rubio—and a few stubborn stragglers all winning some delegates, it will be tough for Trump to gather enough delegates before the national convention to lock up the nomination.

The most logical target for one of Trump’s famous deals is Kasich, who unless he trips, should have a nice bundle of delegates to bargain.

Kasich, like Trump, is not an ideology-pure conservative—at least as measured by those who impose a litmus test, such as National Review. Rather both are malleable personalities interested in workable solutions—for example, instead of denying poor folks health care for partisan reasons, the governor implemented the Medicaid provisions of the Affordable Care Act expansion in Ohio.

By offering Kasich the second spot on the ticket, Trump would show voters he is serious about finding help from seasoned politicians to deliver on trade, immigration, health care, and national security. On that score, if you can name a more solid candidate, then you can have my academic tenure.

To ultimately prevail, she will have to continue to emphasize positions that younger women embrace—such as the proposed Paycheck Fairness Act—and issues important to African-Americans and Hispanics—police behavior and social issues beyond simple economic justice.

That should be enough to ward off Sanders and win the Democratic nomination, but it will push her into an awkward position for the general election.

Criticizing police tactics to adequately appease Black Lives Matters will alienate many white moderates. The notion that Hillary merits women’s votes simply because she is a woman was roundly discredited in New Hampshire.

Young white women, along with white young men, often can’t find jobs that make good use of their education or pay very well. And Democratic prescriptions like more taxes, further building out Obamacare, free trade and open immigration will not have the appeal of radical change offered by Trump.

If Trump moderates his rhetoric and with the help of Kasich polishes his pragmatism on taxes, health care, immigration, and national security, he offers both sexes what they want most—a change in direction from the slow growth policies of Presidents Obama and Bush and the promise of a more effective national security policy.

Enter President Trump.

Peter Morici is an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist. He tweets @pmorici1.