Friday, January 4, 2013

Canadians expect Trudeau to win

Apparently, Canadians pay attention to the news and expect Justin Trudeau to win the federal Liberal leadership race in April. A new Ipsos-Reid poll suggests that more than two-thirds of Canadians think Trudeau will come out victorious, meaning that April's vote will either be a non-event or a huge upset. But the poll also hints at some doubts in Trudeau's ability to defeat the Conservatives.

The online poll conducted in mid-December found that 69% of Canadians expect Justin Trudeau to win the leadership race, giving him a 50-point edge over Marc Garneau. Just under one-in-five think he will prevail.

The other candidates on Ipsos-Reid's list - Martha Hall Findlay, Joyce Murray, and Deborah Coyne - hardly registered. Hall Findlay and Murray each had 5%, while Coyne had 2%.

From what I can tell, Ipsos-Reid did not give people the option of responding with "I don't know". One imagines that would have taken in a large proportion of respondents. But these numbers generally line-up with what we have seen in terms of who Canadians want to win the leadership race, which might have been a more interesting question to ask in this survey.

Over 70% of Canadians in every region except Alberta and Ontario think Trudeau will win, while Marc Garneau managed his best results in Alberta, where 27% think he will win. Is Garneau the Liberal candidate of the right? A recent poll by Forum Research of Ontarians found that provincial PC voters were split down the middle between Trudeau and Garneau, while Trudeau dominated among Liberal and NDP supporters. That Garneau also did best in Alberta in this poll seems to suggest that he is seen as standing to the right of Trudeau.

And while Canadians think Trudeau will win, they are slightly more bullish on Garneau's potential to defeat Stephen Harper. The margin is still wide between Trudeau and Garneau at 38 points, but it suggests that some people doubt that the Liberals will make the right choice.

62% of Canadians think Justin Trudeau has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives, while 24% think Garneau does.

That is not a huge difference from how Canadians think the race will play out - a drop of seven points for Trudeau and an increase of five points for Garneau - but it is a result. Again, Garneau does best in Alberta, where 32% think he has the better chance of defeating Harper.

Still, a large majority of Canadians think Trudeau will win the race and is the best person to take on the Conservatives. But these numbers suggest he has a little work to do in convincing Canadians that he has what it takes to win a general election.

They already don't doubt that his party could win, though. Fully 56% of respondents agree that the Liberals will return to power under the next leader at some point. Only in Alberta and the Prairies do a majority doubt that the next Liberal leader will become Prime Minister one day. That is not a bad number, as it suggests that a large number of Canadians think the third-place Liberals will win an election within the next two or three cycles. But it probably would have been well over 75% in 2006 before the Liberals chose Stéphane Dion.

Canadians are somewhat less sure that the opposition parties will need to co-operate in order to oust the Conservatives. The country was split down the middle on whether the Liberals, NDP, and Greens should work together to avoid splitting the "anti-conservative vote": 51% for to 49% against. Passions don't run too high on this question, however. Only 14% strongly agreed that they should co-operate, while 17% strongly disagreed.

Hopefully, Ipsos-Reid will weigh-in on these questions again as the leadership vote approaches. If Trudeau does very well over the next few months, his numbers are surely to rise. But will the numbers of respondents who think that the Liberals can return to power and do it on their own increase as well? And if he falters, will Canadians still think that Garneau or another candidate will be able to defeat the Conservatives without co-operating with the NDP?

36 comments:

Angus Reid's new poll found that a Trudeau-led Liberal Party would result in: LPC 42% CPC 26% NDP 19%. Wild! Also, the poll found some fairly out-of-step regional numbers for current voting intentions, particularly MB/SK and the Atlantic, but also BC and ON. Probably worth writing a piece about.

And yet that same poll puts the Liberals at 19% without the hypothetical. Given that most Canadians expect Truedau to win, how is it that they put the Liberals in a distant third place, but when asked to assume Trudeau as leader they have the Liberals ahead?

Those results make no sense.

I'm inclined to ignore these hypothetical questions and wait to seehow the Liberals (with Trudeau as leader) are viewed once he's actually leader, having suffered all of the slings and arrows that achieving the leadership and holding the leadership will bring.

Judging Trudeau on his last name and good looks is equivalent to judging a book by its cover. When the public opens the book to see him in action, will the cover properly reflect the content of the book? The stake is high for Trudeau - whether he makes or breaks it is yet to be seen.You know what they say, never judge a book by their cover.

Peter, as a regular follower of this site I would've thought you would know better by now than to get your hopes up to such an extent over wildly fluctuating poll results based on hypothetical scenarios. Not saying it couldn't happen, but you're potentially setting yourself up for major disappointment by being so confident.

I'll keep raising the previous example of François Legault and the CAQ in Québec. For months while he was mulling the idea of founding the party, hypothetical polls suggested he would come out on top in an election. Then when he did found the party, the first few polls showed him winning by a landslide. But just three months later, the CAQ had already slipped down to 3rd place, where they've pretty much remained to this day.

The fact is the public simply hasn't seen Trudeau in real action yet, and until they do his fortunes as Liberal leader are truly anyone's guess.

Polls are showing more and more erratic numbers for the Liberals, I rather stick with 308 to explain what's going on and what can account for it. 308 is showing the bump the liberals got for Trudeau entering the race starting to wane. Perhaps once Trudeau becomes leader the party will get another bounce and wane away the same way?

It is not "waffling" or "bafflegab" to take polling results with a proverbial grain of salt.

This is one result, one data point, and while other polls have shown similar results, it is pure wishful thinking at best -- and outright arrogance at worst -- to assert that a majority is inevitable when an actual election is over two full years away.

Eric, you neglect to mention that the Angus Reid numbers are wildly different when no potential Liberal leader is named:

Con 35NDP 33Lib 19

It is astounding Liberal support more than doubles with Trudeau at the helm. On the other hand, if he fails to meet his stratospheric expectations, the poll indicates to me that the Liberal vote is potentially very soft and can easily drift away.

Idle no more will have almost no impact. It is a sad reality but, Aboriginal participation in elections are dismally low. Even in ridings where their population could sway a race turnout remains negligible.

In my experience many Canadians are hostile toward Aboriginal rights and even the benefits they may receive from the Indian Act or treaty. Many of course will sympathise but, an equal number have tuned out to the issue.

What political result? If you think Mr. Harper is about to meet chief Spence you are sadly mistaken. Nor are the Tories about to amend the Budget Implementation Bill part II to satisfy Aboriginal concerns! With 3% of the population Aboriginal rights/ treatment is unlikely to be taken up as a seminal issue by Canadians.

"As Attawapiskat Chief Theresa Spence enters her fourth week on a hunger strike outside the Canadian capital building, thousands of protesters in Los Angeles, London, Minneapolis and New York City, voice their support."

This US site has something every day on our current situation. Definitely worth the visit:

The Idle No More movement will likely persevere, but I think Spence's reputation is just about ruined now. She's going to have to take a back seat lest she start doing the movement more harm than good.

The way audits work Peter is they are done by fiscal year. The time period with the administrator will be audited sometime after March 31, 2013. Complex audits can take months so a six month delay or longer is not that unusual. Only a slanderer would characterise this as "Dirty Politics" (sic) without proof.

Co-management does not mean co-responsibility it depends on the terms of any agreement. You should ask Chretien and Bob Nault why they placed this reserve under co-management? Co-management agreements happen all the time in Alberta with oil and gas with Aboriginal groups differing layers of responsibility are outlined in the agreements.

I would surmise this reserve has a number of on-going problems related to capacity as well as more nefarious outcomes. The bottom line is it is up to the people of that community to make sure their leaders are held accountable. The Government can only do so much. If IdleNoMore is truly concerned about Indigenous Sovereignty they will put their own house in order to achieve their goal(s).

What all the polls show is that Harper is going to be finished in 2015. His personal numbers continue to dive ans without a majority win he is toast. No poll shows Harper even coming close to a majority no matter who leads the Liberals.

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