Rupee Recovers But Not Far From 68 Per Dollar: 10 Updates

The rupee is down nearly 6 per cent so far this year against dollar amid rising global oil prices.

The rupee had breached the crucial 68 level yesterday and had closed at 68.07 per dollar.

Highlights

Rupee is down nearly 6% against US dollar so far this year

On Wednesday, rupee recovered to 67.85 after falling to 68.13 per dollar

Trade deficit slightly widened to $13.72 billion in April

The rupee (INR) today weakened to 68.13 against the US dollar (USD) at day's low before pulling back to 67.76. The rupee closed at 67.87 against the US dollar today. The rupee had breached the crucial 68 level yesterday and had closed at 68.07 per dollar, down 56 paise. Rising crude prices, outflows from domestic capital markets and a rising dollar has kept pressure on the rupee, with the rupee falling nearly 6 per cent against the US dollar so far this year. Meanwhile, data released yesterday showed India's trade deficit slightly widened to $13.72 billion in April from $13.25 billion a year ago. The stock markets also struggled today amid uncertainty over government formation in Karnataka. The Sensexended over 150 points lower today.

Here are 10 updates on dollar-rupee exchange rate (INR vs USD):

1) With oil prices remaining at an elevated level, the rupee could weaken further, say experts. The uncertainty over government formation in Karnataka has also hurt the sentiment.

2) "With oil at the current elevated levels, only sentiments were holding the rupee. Given the post-election uncertainty in Karnataka, fundamentals have again taken over and pushed the dollar to 68 levels. We are expecting dollar to move between 68.25-68.40 levels but upside could be to 67.80," Salil Datar, CEO and executive director, Essel Finance VKC Forex.

3) In global commodity markets, crude oil prices remained near multi-year highs amid concerns US sanctions on Iran may restrict crude exports from a major producer. Brent crude oil was above $78 a barrel.

4) India's trade deficit for 2017/18 fiscal year ending in March grew to $156.8 billion from $105.72 billion in the previous year, mainly driven by a rising oil import bill - a growing concern for the Reserve Bank of India.

5) The dollar was today near five-month high against a group of major currencies, after strong US retail-sales data boosted expectations for economic growth.

6) A surge in benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield above 3 per cent also boosted the US dollar.

7) The dollar index versus a basket of six major peers added 0.1 per cent to 93.335, after rallying to 93.457 overnight, its highest since December 22.

8) The upmove in US dollar has been supported by the yield advantage the United States enjoys over other countries.

9) "The dollar stands to benefit, particularly against the euro, on higher Treasury yields," says a forex expert.

10) Overnight, the US bond yield surged to a seven-year high of 3.095 per cent after US consumer spending numbers.