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Please help confused first-timer (understanding Colorado draw odds)

Okay, I thought I had a handle on all of this, but now I'm not so sure. I have a membership at "hunterstrailhead.com" and it says as a non-resident, with 1 point, I have a 93% chance of drawing an archery tag in unit 511. However, when I read other reports (monster muleys, etc) it indicates that there were only 14 tags available for NR's in that unit, and it looked like you need at least 2 points.

Can anybody clear this up for me? I have 1 point and I am interested in bowhunting 511, is that a tag I have a chance at?

You can view all of the hunt statistics for Colorado that you desire. In short if you click on the link in the preference point column in the deer section you will see that you needed at least 1 PP for a buck to have drawn in 2012. Unfortunately 2013 MIN PP's have not been released. However, if you look at the 2013 hunt recap you can decipher that 1 PP was also needed.

You can view all of the hunt statistics for Colorado that you desire. In short if you click on the link in the preference point column in the deer section you will see that you needed at least 1 PP for a buck to have drawn in 2012. Unfortunately 2013 MIN PP's have not been released. However, if you look at the 2013 hunt recap you can decipher that 1 PP was also needed.

Colorado doesn't do a very good job explaining about how to figure out draw odds. Their description of "reading the recaps" is almost useless. They make no mention of how landowner tags figure in, or the 65/35 or 80/20 split rule. Their own publishing of the perference points is "minumum amount" to draw. Sure, one guy could've draw with 7 points, but his odds may have been aweful.

To figure points to gaurantee a tag, you need to look at the recaps. Figure out whether the unit is 65/35 or 80/20 split (units that take a resident more than 6 pp dictate that 80% of tags go to residents). Then you must figure what fraction the quota would go to nonresidents by finding 20% or 35% of the quota (whatever the case may be). Then you need to count backwards in the preference point column to see what chance (if any) various levels of point holders had.

Point "creep" in the popular units is about 1 1/2 pts per year. Thats what I was told when I called about when they would post the 2013 numbers. Couldn't tell me when the 2013 stuff would be posted.

The bad thing about it is that it is really difficult to "catch up" unless they increase the tags for a unit, which they do sometimes.I have also seen fewer demand for NR tags which can increase the resident tags. It really a crapshoot.

Last edited by Colorado Cowboy; 12-16-2013 at 04:36 PM.

Colorado Cowboy
Cowboy Action Shooter; Endowment Life Member-NRA
The Original Rocket Scientist-Retired
"My Father always considered a walk in the mountains as the equivalent of church going."
Aldous Huxley

Okay, I thought I had a handle on all of this, but now I'm not so sure. I have a membership at "hunterstrailhead.com" and it says as a non-resident, with 1 point, I have a 93% chance of drawing an archery tag in unit 511. However, when I read other reports (monster muleys, etc) it indicates that there were only 14 tags available for NR's in that unit, and it looked like you need at least 2 points.

Can anybody clear this up for me? I have 1 point and I am interested in bowhunting 511, is that a tag I have a chance at?

Thanks in advance.

Shootist,

I'm a hunterstrailhead member also & it is an excellant resource. It is very accurate, they get thier info from the State Departments. They enter the data into thier system to brake it down for the members. Just remember tag increase or decrease really changes the odds!

"Only two people have died for You and I, The American Soldier died for Our Freedom & Jesus Christ Died for Our Souls!" I thank GOD for them! GOD BLESS AMERICA!