Chief U.N. Nuclear Monitor Cites Iran Enrichment Plan

By MARK LANDLER and DAVID E. SANGER; Mark Landler reported from Davos, and David E. Sanger from Washington.

Published: January 27, 2007

The head of the United Nations nuclear inspection agency said Friday that Iranian officials had told him that they planned to begin installing equipment next month in an industrial-scale plant to enrich uranium.

Such a move would intensify Iran's confrontation with the Security Council, which has demanded a full suspension of the production of nuclear material, and has authorized mild sanctions.

The announcement by the official, Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was coupled with a plea to both Tehran and Western nations for all sides to take a ''timeout'' to head off a larger confrontation.

''Enough flexing muscles, enough calling names,'' Dr. ElBaradei said in a conversation with reporters here at the World Economic Forum conference. ''It's time to engage.''

He proposed a suspension of the sanctions against Iran, while the Iranians simultaneously suspend enrichment of uranium. That process can produce fuel for nuclear weapons, though the Iranians deny that is their goal.

Nuclear experts and American officials say Iran's announcement may be a bluff. Tehran has run into significant difficulties in assembling centrifuges to enrich uranium. A year ago it promised to have 3,000 centrifuges running by now; instead, it is just beginning to install that equipment, at Natanz.

But Dr. ElBaradei seemed clearly concerned that once enrichment began, it would be difficult to halt, and that Iranian officials would be loath to dismantle any plant once construction had begun.

He is also concerned that such a plant could become a military target for the United States or Israel. Such a strike would be ''absolutely bonkers,'' he said, noting that it would not deprive Iran of the technological expertise to pursue any nuclear ambitions.

''It would only strengthen the hand of hard-liners,'' he said. ''They would simply go underground.''

Dr. ElBaradei said he worried that further sanctions against Iran, which the United Nations has threatened to impose next month, ''is only going to lead to an escalation.''

Given what inspectors know about Iran's current capabilities, Dr. ElBaradei said, the Iranians are three to eight years away from being able to manufacture a nuclear device. That is roughly in line with estimates made by American intelligence officials.

The United States said it would stick to its insistence that Iran stop enrichment before negotiations begin. The State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack, said the reports that Iran planned to install 3,000 centrifuges showed its continued defiance.

''We'll see what Dr. ElBaradei has to say,'' Mr. McCormack said Friday at a briefing in Washington. ''More importantly, we'll see what the Iranians do; they continue in provocative behavior.''

He said the preliminary sanctions, which ban the import and export of material used in uranium enrichment, reprocessing and ballistic missiles, appeared to be having some effect in Iran.

There is evidence of an internal split in Tehran. Two hard-line newspapers that reflect the views of Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently demanded that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stay away from nuclear issues because his comments were deepening Iran's isolation.

Iran's relations with the international nuclear monitoring agency have deteriorated since the sanctions were approved. Iran has demanded the agency remove the official who oversees inspections of Iranian facilities, and it has barred more than 30 inspectors, all from countries that supported sanctions.

It is not clear how much influence Dr. ElBaradei can exercise, now that the confrontation has moved to the Security Council. But he appears to believe there is support for his proposal.

A diplomat at the agency, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he had found such support in Germany and France. Those nations, along with Britain, have led the talks with Iran over its nuclear program.

Dr. ElBaradei has also consulted with Russia, which favors a more conciliatory approach. But he did not discuss the idea with American officials before making it public here, the diplomat said.

The United States has said that if Iran suspended uranium enrichment, Washington would join the Europeans in direct talks with Tehran, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has indicated that she would take part.

Dr. ElBaradei also suggested the United States show more flexibility in its standoff with North Korea, which detonated a crude nuclear device in October. The North Koreans have demanded that the United States drop financial sanctions as a condition for reviving talks over their nuclear program.

American and North Korean officials met this month in Berlin, a meeting meant to lay the groundwork for a revival of multiparty talks in Beijing. State Department officials say they are hopeful of some kind of deal, perhaps involving a temporary freeze on plutonium production in the North.