Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely.
This publishes Sunday through Thursday with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).

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16.5.12

Dynamics make Jindal serious VP nominee contender

With the Republican presidential nomination apparently settled,
figuring out who will be presumptive nominee Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running
has begun to rival baseball as the national pastime. As Romney has started to
lead national polls against embattled incumbent Democrat Pres. Barack Obama,
the stakes grow higher and especially so in Louisiana, as one potential
contender is Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Talk of making him the game changer on the GOP ticket emerged
in that contest four years ago, but reasons he would not have made the cut
(assuming, leaving aside his declaration to then-candidate Sen. John
McCain that he was a non-candidate, he would not have been selected) were he
would have left the state open then to a Democrat successor (current New Orleans
Mayor Mitch Landrieu) and he didn’t come from a state that would give him a
competitive advantage. He also didn’t have a lot of experience in elective
office – then three years in the U.S. House of Representatives and just
starting as governor.

Turns out that those two things didn’t much matter, as the eventual
pick former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin got the nod, who had only a little more experience
as a governor and also hailed from a noncompetitive state. However, like
Jindal, she had acted in office as a conservative and with her female sex, as
would have Jindal’s south Asian Indian background, was figured to offset Obama’s
“Magic
Negro” status in the minds of less sophisticated voters.

In the current cycle, once again Jindal’s name has popped up, and he’s
a stronger candidate than ever, for three reasons. First, it has become
increasingly apparent that presidential
candidates have deemphasized the idea of the “swing state” factor in their
selections, so because Louisiana will vote solidly for the Republican ticket
hardly devalues Jindal’s presence on it. Second, he now has four more years of
gubernatorial experience, making his total elective office experience greater
than that of 2004 Democrat nominee John Edwards.

The third factor magnifies the second – the experience he has gained
has confirmed his conservative credentials and reflects at the minimum
adequately on his governance ability. While some
may argue the overarching test of this competence, handling the declining revenue
picture of the state, will dull his stature, much more likely is it will become
enhanced. There has been a precipitous decline in general fund revenues coming
with which to budget starting after his first (and some deterioration as well in
money flowing to dedicated purposes), yet collar typical Louisiana citizens
with the question of whether they think there’s been any significant decline in
state services, and few would answer affirmatively (and almost none outside of
the government and nonprofit sectors).

This is a tribute to Jindal’s ability not just to lop off selectively
and incrementally low priority government tasks that had little real need
attached to them, but also to make what has been retained more efficient (the
current budget deficit up for discussion would have reached in proportional
terms the unenviable status of California’s without, for example, a major restructuring
in the way in which Medicaid services get delivered during Jindal’s terms). Add
to this that perhaps only in the previous budget cycle has he had a Legislature
that was any more than lukewarm to his agenda, becoming more compliant as a
result of steady Republican gains (if not perhaps
too enthusiastic for his liking in the present one), and some high profile
policy successes (such as education reform), and it’s clear he would be among, although
perhaps not at the top of, the highest echelon of GOP governors of the past few
years.

So he should be near the top of the running mate list. But not at the
top, because of the dynamics reversed from four years ago. Then, McCain could
not be considered other than a very experienced national politician, which is
why he felt someone from the state level with executive experience could help
his chances. This time, Romney’s only political experience has been as a state
chief executive, and only for four years. To enhance this ticket, he’s going to
want a conservative with a good policy record and a lot of experience,
preferably most if not all at the national level. And for Romney to go with
somebody with absolutely no national experience would be extremely unusual – the
last major party ticket to have a nominee without national elective experience
that did not select somebody with it was Alf Landon in 1936, and that didn’t
turn out well.

It’s here where Jindal misses out. His three years, while better than
some, sets him back in this derby. Other such as Sen. Rob Portman and
Rep. Paul Ryan pass him
here, and, because of his geographic situation (where the swing state
hypothesis might actually mean something, which also may be the case with
Portman) and Hispanic ethnic background (the second-largest demographic group
in the country and fastest-growing segment of the electorate), the almost two
years of national office but also many in state government including a stint as
Speaker of the House also puts Sen. Marco Rubio
up there ahead of him.

But make no mistake, for what Romney needs, Jindal is a strong candidate.
There are choices that fit better, but with the right set of short-term
political circumstances and reluctance on the part of any of the above to assent,
Jindal is a choice that should not be easily dismissed.

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