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Might Start to get Dry… Again

April 18, 2017

The BoM says chances of an El Nino developing later in the year remain with its latest update saying there’s around a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino evolving in 2017, about twice the normal likelihood.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed in recent months, with the warmth progressively spreading.

Many of the major international weather agencies are tipping this warming will continue.

The Bureau says seven of eight international models monitored indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Nino thresholds during the second half of 2017.

However, they are saying the warning comes with some caution.

They are keen to remind us that models have lower accuracy, and that “There remains a significant spread in possible forecast outcomes.”

Other forecasters are already saying the impacts of any possible El Nino are likely to be mild, pointing to the recent stagnation in ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific.

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