Ok boys and girls, it’s draft day

Today is the day we’ve been waiting for. The rumors continue to circulate. Will we take a Boras guy if he drops? Will we go above slot at 19? Will it be a bat or an arm? So many questions, so few answers at this point, but that’s what makes this so exciting. I’ll post the complete draft order for the first round and the supplemental round, and I’ll update it as the picks come off the board. If you’ve got a rumor, or just any thought you’d like to share, put it here, we’ll use this post to discuss all of today’s action. Here is a recap of all of the pre-draft writings, and here is today’s draft order:

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89 thoughts on “Ok boys and girls, it’s draft day”

Keith Law updated his projections very early this morning. Some highlights

2. Royals Josh Vitters 3B Cypress (Calif.) HS
The Royals seem to have switched focus in the last few days; it’s looking very likely that they’ll take a high school player, and they still haven’t ruled out taking a Boras client. The Royals say that they haven’t made a final decision yet, but there’s a strong sentiment that they’ve settled or are close to settling on Vitters and will move him to first base.

3. Cubs Matt Dominguez 3B Chatsworth (Calif.) HS
The Cubs were hoping for Vitters, but he may be gone. They would love to take Wieters, but they can’t spend that kind of coin. Tim Wilken typically likes to take top-flight high school hitters in the first round, and Dominguez would be the best one on the board. The Cubs also have serious interest in Jarrod Parker, but they’re leaning towards taking a position player.

6. Nationals Mike Moustakas SS Chatsworth (Calif.) HS
Most folks I’ve talked to have this pick as more or less of a lock. Here’s my question: If Washington believes that Rick Porcello is the best player in the draft (as I’ve been told), but that they can’t sign him, why would they take Moustakas when his price tag is the same as Porcello’s? They’re also interested in Daniel Moskos, who would make more sense if they don’t want to go way over slot.

7. Brewers Matt Wieters C/RHP Georgia Tech
This isn’t a lock, but Milwaukee likes Wieters and needs a catching prospect, anyway. Their top alternatives are Dominguez and Moustakas. Milwaukee’s worst-case scenario has Wieters, Dominguez, and Moustakas all gone, in which case they’d look at a deal with Devin Mesoraco.

18. Cardinals Matt Harvey RHP Fitch HS, Groton, Conn.
Harvey’s price tag, while above slot, isn’t in the stratosphere like Porcello’s is. Expect St. Louis to take a high school player or a high-risk/high-reward college guy in the first, then to draft more conservatively after that.

19. Phillies Michael Burgess RHP/RF Hillsborough HS, Tampa, Fla.
No big changes here. Top alternative is Mesoraco. They would consider Mills and make him a left fielder.

20. Dodgers Travis Mattair OF Southridge HS, Kennewick, Wash.
The Dodgers have been in on a number of top high school players, including Mesoraco, Bumgarner, Beavan and Derek Norris, but Mattair appears to have moved up their lists, especially after having a very strong workout at their stadium over the weekend.

Ugh. But this just affirms my love for Mattair isn’t completely misguided.

4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
They’ve wanted Vitters all along, but with that scenario not happening, they’ll go with who they think is the top college lefty.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
They may still be debating, but it was looking like they were leaning back to the tall, Canadian right-hander.

6. Washington Nationals: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
There’s still some consideration being given to a guy like Matt Wieters, but they’ll go with the lefty with good stuff instead.

7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
They’d consider one of the college lefties, but since they’re gone, they’ll go with the high-school righty with a ton of upside.

8. Colorado Rockies: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
I think the Rockies wouldn’t mind getting a college arm here like Detwiler or Moskos, but both are gone, so they’ll go with the college power arm out of the bullpen that should get there fast.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
No one has helped themselves more lately than Schmidt, the consummate pitchability lefty who tossed a shutout in conference tournament play and was stellar again in Regional action.

10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
With three picks in the top 30, they can take a chance on a guy perceived to be a tough sign.

11. Seattle Mariners: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
With none of the arms they wanted still available, they’ll go with the “safe” college hitter in Doolittle, who’s name has been all over the top third of the first round.

12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, OF, University of Tennessee
They won’t draft based on need, even though they do need a leadoff-type center fielder, but they’ll take Borbon because he’s the best guy left on the board.

13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
Staying the same with this projection, as the Indians have been on the Texas prep standout for some time. Think Adam Miller, redux.

14. Atlanta Braves: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
Sure they could go local in Georgia, but look for them to head south to Florida to take Main, a terrific athlete and the kind of power arm the Braves covet.

15. Cincinnati Reds: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
The Reds will be happy Mesoraco, one of the better all-around catchers in the class, will still be around for them.

16. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
Outside of Matt Wieters, Mills is probably the top college position player. The Jays will worry what position he plays later.

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
The Cardinals seem not to be a college-only team right now and might want to show that by taking a high school bat in this spot.

19. Philadelphia Phillies: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
Sometimes the Phillies are unfairly put with toolsy outfielders because they like that kind of player. In this case, this wouldn’t be unfair.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
They didn’t think Dominguez would be here for them. The idea of bringing in a bat with that kind of potential — from a local kid, no less — will be too hard for them to pass up.

21. Toronto Blue Jays: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
The thinking all along was that the Jays would take one college player and one high-schooler with their two first-rounders. After getting Mills, they’ll get the prepster in Kozma here.

22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
Here’s the second college guy for the Giants and one from the team’s own backyard.

23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC-Riverside
In all likelihood, the Padres will end up going with a college arm here, and Simmons may be the best one left on the board.

24. Texas Rangers: Kyle Russell, OF, University of Texas
As a sophomore, signability might be a concern, but the Rangers do like taking guys from their neighborhood.

25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
The projectable Texas right-hander’s dad played pro ball, in the White Sox organization no less. The only thing that might throw this one out the window is if Withrow goes ahead of the Sox, with teams like the Phillies and Dodgers reportedly interested.

26. Oakland A’s: Todd Frazier, 3B, Rutgers University
There are at least a dozen names the A’s are likely considering for this spot, and it could depend on who filters down from above. They’ll go with Frazier, who plays shortstop in college but will have to move to third or perhaps a corner outfield spot as a pro.

27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale (Ariz.)
Several teams have been on the Arizona prep right-hander, and while some scouts were concerned with Alderson’s unorthodox delivery, the Tigers have been on him all year.

28. Minnesota Twins: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
The Twins would love it if Peter Kozma were still around, but it seems unlikely that he will be. So they’ll look and see the big, projectable — yet raw — left arm of Bumgarner, and snag him here.

29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
With a host of teams looking at high school arms, it might be a reach to think Smoker will last this far down. But if he does, the Giants won’t hesitate to take him.

30. New York Yankees: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep
Why not? In some ways, it almost seems too obvious to happen. The Yankees are in a position where they can wait and see who might fall in their lap.

I was a big Dominguez fan as well. That’s a blow to our draft board. I keep looking at Rick Porcello, and deep down, I know it’s not even a possibility, but I keep holding out a sliver of hope as he slides down the board.

Lefty From rice, recovering from shoulder surgery last year, was highly rated when the season started- good two-way player, velocity was down for much of the year until he started to get back into the 90’s in the last month. Better to get him after the surgery i guess.

Sounds like he’s got some potential. I really was hoping for Porcello, but I guess that was wishful thinking.

Kevin Goldstein (1:06:10 PM PST): Give credit to Bryan Smith here — he mentioned Savery prior to the pick over IM. I love this pick, and like they said on TV, this is a guy who is a top 15 talent who was hurt this year, and if he comes back, he’s possibly a steal here. I love this pick. Dodgers go next, and they have some high school arms to choose from still with Bumgarner off the board (their favorite). Main? Smoker? Some think Tim Alderson was the backup plan.

BSmith (1:08:08 PM PST): Man, the Phillies must like their Texas area scout. Philadelphia is a good fit for Savery, particularly because of their history with Cole Hamels. Cole had some slight arm troubles in high school, and immediately upon getting in the Phillies system, they played it really careful with him. Savery is going to need the same type of baby-feeding, but the upside if there — he was considered a top-five guy in this class for a long time.

There is a difference between baby feeding a HS pick and a college pick to protect his arm. The college guy gets old in A ball rather quickly with this approach and came with a lot more mileage on arm. Hamels’ problem was a broken bone, not labrum. Because of the bone break, Hamels was a very low mileage HS pitcher.

No, the injury was to the labrum, which was frayed. A bone spur caused the fraying and the bone spur was removed. But the labrum was frayed, so this is more than simply preventative. It is to prevent FURTHER damage not to avoid damage in the first place.

Not quite. If a bone spur is removed because it “is fraying” the labrum, then it means it is in the process of causing an injury. Presumably, if his labrum were injured at that point, then they would have fixed it while they were in there. He probably felt pain in his shoulder, they realized that this bone spur was rubbing against the muscle and so they removed it.

Yes, causing being present tense, the same as “is fraying,” so my earlier comment still applies. In any case, I don’t particularly trust the Phillies but as cheap as they are I have to believe that if they are going to spend first-round money on a player they are going to make damn sure that he isn’t injured. I didn’t mean to sound arrogant or accusatory toward you Allentown, I just think that assuming that a guy has a serious injury without the support is dangerous and from my perspective, no such record exists.

I think it’s more about the fact that he’s from Rice. Pitchers from Rice don’t have the best track records. But as I said before, at some point, someone has to buck the trend. The Phillies did their homework on Drabek last year, and it looks like they hit it right. Let’s hope for the same this year.

Putting the health factor aside (and it’s a big factor), if he’s healthy, he could be MLB ready by the end of next summer. That’s a pretty big deal. Low-Mid 90’s heat, real good secondary pitches.