Share

Trending Discussions

Energy Market Review - 11th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil is setting it self up for a big fall as we began to warn last week while we hold below 96.90/97.10 resistance. We expect a break of good support at 95.05/94.90 perhaps as soon as today, to confirm the bearish topping pattern with 94.40 targeted then 94.05/90. Below here we should see 93.26 but we do expect to see 91.72 before we bottom out in the days to come.

Resistance today at 96.25/60 is likely to cap any move higher but above here risks a retest of 96.90/97.10. This must hold or the bearish pattern is broken and we should head back to 97.48, possibly retest 98.15/25 highs.

March Brent broke 117.95 to reach 119.07/17, in an unstoppable bull market that could now target 119.80/120.00.Any profit taking should test 118.59 then 118.23 below with a good chance of a low for the day but any further weakness then finds excellent support at 118.02/117.94 for a buying opportunity with stops below 117.65.

Gasoil broke closed the gap at 1021 to hit the next target of 1030. This is the high from the second half of 2012 & as predicted we topped out here. The 1029/32 band is a crucial area as it is also 21 month trend line resistance in a severely over bought market. Even in this bull market there is a risk of a top here. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

If 1029/32 remains unbeatable we should not see a big sell off just yet but should bounce around with in a range while we take a rest & get ready for the next big move. Initial support is 1025/24 but below here 1019, possibly 1016/15 which should provide a floor.

Nat Gas held a narrow range as we test 3.258 support. If we see a bounce off here today we could head back to 3.293, possibly 3.323/327. Watch for a top here but go with a break above 3.349 for 3.373/387 resistance & a good selling opportunity.

However a break below 3.240 then keeps the market under pressure for a test of last week’s low at 3.207.

March RBOB has been hovering in a range from 298 up to 307 for almost 2 weeks. There is a little support today at 301 but below here another test of 299/98 look possible. The daily chart is calling for a correction so watch for a break below 297 to trigger stops on longs for a move to 294.88.

Resistance remains in the 306/307 area but a break &b preferably a close above here then opens the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.

Related posts

Leave a comment

Name

Email

Captcha

Comment

We will save the information entered above in our website. Your comment will then await moderation from one of our team. If approved, your data will then be publically viewable on this article. Please confirm you understand and are happy with this and our privacy policy by ticking this box. You can withdraw your consent, or ask us to give you a copy of the information we have stored, at any time by contacting us.