I predict that the voter turnout among women who most admire Hillary Rodham Clinton is being underestimated in the turnout models of all major pollsters, and if I am right by even a small percent this will shake the foundation of a razor-thin election.

A stronger Democratic convention, Romney's 47 percent calamity, Obama's lackluster debate, and Biden's strong performance have all contributed to a fluid race. But contrary to some coverage and Democratic handwringing, one thing that hasn't moved as much is the gender gap.