Ahead of the Bell: September auto sales reflect quirk in the calendar

In this Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2013 photo Chevrolet passenger cars form a row on a dealer's lot in Needham, Mass. U.S. auto sales for September are released on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2013. (AP Photo/Steven Senne_

DETROIT (AP) — U.S. auto sales are expected to fall in September, snapping a 27-month streak of year-over-year gains. But analysts say a quirk in the calendar — not lower demand — is to blame.

Labor Day weekend is typically strong for U.S. auto sales, and this year was no exception. But because the holiday came early, the auto industry counted all of that weekend's sales in its August tallies. That means September's sales, coming out Tuesday, will be missing the usual holiday boost.

But analysts say all the factors that have been driving this year's strong car sales — including low interest rates, the improving economy and the need to replace aging vehicles — remain in place. They see a strong close to the year.

Advertisement

"The market continues to move at a very healthy pace," said Erich Merkle, Ford's top U.S. sales analyst.

September sales are expected to total around 1.1 million, according to auto shopping site Edmunds.com. That would be a 4 percent decrease from last September and a 24 percent decrease from the blistering pace in August, which was the best month in more than six years.

The annualized sales pace hit 16 million in August for the first time since before the recession, a cause for celebration in the industry. It's expected to drop back to 15.4 million in September, according to car buying site TrueCar.com. But analysts still expect full-year sales of 15.6 million thanks to the strong summer and the typical jump in year-end sales from holiday deals.

"Although the headline numbers won't be pretty, we believe the September result is nothing more than noise, and should help to bring expectations in line," Barclay's auto analyst Brian Johnson said in a note to investors.

Toyota is expected to post small gains for September on the back of the new Corolla small car, which went on sale last month. Full-size pickup truck sales, which have been strong all year, also likely rose in September, benefiting Detroit automakers, Kelley Blue Book said. But midsize car sales may have slumped, since sales of new midsize cars like the Volkswagen Passat and Honda Accord were particularly strong last September.