USA TODAY Sports provides your March Madness therapy.

What started with 40-0 expectations — that quickly flat lined — has returned in the form of greatest coaching job of John Calipari's career and as good as the Fab Five and better than 2012's title team.

Kentucky is a 2.5-point favorite to win the national championship game — the narrowest point spread since 2008.

Odds are one thing, but go inside any sports bar in Dallas and ask fans which team they've got. Kentucky rolls off the tongue just as smoothly as Florida and Michigan State did. You see where I'm going with this?

Calipari's freshmen-laden group should win for a variety of reasons. More talent. Momentum. Veteran coach. Clutch factor. You name it. But would it be that big of a surprise if UConn won? Here's a team that went through as many hills and valleys as the Wildcats. On paper, the Huskies weren't better than Michigan State or Florida, both of whom were favored to win the national title.

So in order to have a backup plan just in case Kentucky doesn't cut down the nets, here's a road map to how Shabazz Napier and Co. could pull off the upset. Again.

1. UConn plays better as the underdog. Kentucky is loaded with McDonald's All-Americans, and UConn has none. Perfect. The Huskies have a higher seed than their opponent but aren't favored to win. Perfect. Perhaps the key ingredient in this team's success has been the comfort factor that comes from playing with nothing to lose.

2. Experience. Shabazz Napier has been on a national championship team and, compared with Kentucky's youngsters, UConn has a veteran presence. In a title game, when nerves will indeed come out, Connecticut has the edge.

3. Great backcourt > Great frontcourt. As Nicole Auerbach writes, great guards are vital to NCAA tournament success, and the Huskies are a textbook example of that. Napier, a senior, and junior Ryan Boatright make up arguably the nation's best backcourt. Kentucky's interior presence will pose matchup problems and cause Kevin Ollie headaches, but great guard play can offset even a Julius Randle-led frontcourt. UConn has two heady point guards who penetrate well and are ballhawks defensively. The Huskies will have the edge here.

Kentucky Wildcats center Dakari Johnson (44) chases a loose ball in their Final Four game against the Wisconsin Badgers.(Photo: Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)

4. Napier & Ryan Boatright will fluster the Harrison twins. Napier and Boatright can take over games offensively and defensively. Against Florida, they limited Scottie Wilbekin to four points and also held Michael Frazier to an off shooting night. While Aaron Harrison has become a hero for his back-to-back game-winning shots, the twins have not faced on-the-ball defenders as strong as Napier and Boatright. Clearly, all eyes will be on the backcourt matchup.

5. Points off turnovers. Connecticut has outscored its opponents by 41 points in the NCAA tournament — with a plus-32 advantage in points off turnovers, 84-52. On Saturday, the Huskies held Florida to three assists while forcing 11 turnovers. Kentucky has a minus-9 turnover differential in its tournament games.

6. Who will guard/contain Napier? Napier had an off game with 12 points against Florida and still found ways to excel. Before that game, he was the best player in the tournament. The key question is who tries to slow him down? It'll take a collaborative effort, but neither the Harrisons nor James Young are quick enough to contain the All-American.

7. UConn will make Kentucky shoot outside. This is perhaps the most crucial factor. Kentucky excels when it can get to the paint, so Ollie's gameplan will be to keep the Wildcats out of the lane and force them to make outside shots. It's easier said than done, but the more perimeter shooting for Kentucky, the better for the Huskies.

8. Kentucky's role players are due for an off night. With Willie Cauley-Stein out for a third consecutive game, role players Dakari Johnson, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee again will have to come up big. Lee did that against Michigan, and Poythress and Johnson were key factors against Wisconsin. If they don't make their needed contributions, Kentucky could be in trouble.

9. UConn knows it starts with Julius Randle. "He's being played like Shaq was played in college," coach John Calipari said before the Final Four. Randle has been double teamed and triple teamed. His aggression creates openings for teammates. UConn played tightly yet smart against Michigan State's Adreian Payne. They'll need to play Randle similarly.

10. UConn is lights out from the charity stripe. If the game comes down to free throws, UConn's set. The Huskies have shot 86% from the free-throw line in the tournament — using those points to keep pace against better offensive teams. Kentucky hasn't been as accurate — 70.6%.

Julius Randle (30) drives to the bucket between a pair of Connecticut defenders during the national title game in Arlington, Texas.
Apr 7, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Connecticut Huskies forward DeAndre Daniels (2) defends against Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (30) in the second half during the championship game of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (2) gets a kiss after defeating the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Andrew Harrison (left) hugs guard Aaron Harrison (2) after defeating the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (left) celebrates with guard Aaron Harrison (2) after defeating the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (2) celebrates his game winning three-point shot withJulius Randle (30) and James Young (1) against the Wisconsin Badgers during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (2) shoots a three pointer over Wisconsin Badgers guard Josh Gasser (21) in the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Marcus Lee (00) reaches for the ball over Wisconsin Badgers forward Sam Dekker (15) in the first half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (2) shoots and scores a three-point basket with 5.7 seconds left in the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (30) grabs a rebound over Wisconsin Badgers guard Bronson Koenig (24) and guard Traevon Jackson (12) during the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Pool Photo, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Marcus Lee (00) dunks over Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) in the first half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) drives defended by Wisconsin Badgers guard Ben Brust (1) and Traevon Jackson (12) in the first half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) puts up a shot defended by Kentucky Wildcats center Dakari Johnson (44) in the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers guard Josh Gasser (21) drives against Kentucky Wildcats guard Dominique Hawkins (25) in the first half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (middle) battles for the ball with Wisconsin Badgers forward Nigel Hayes (10) and forward Duje Dukan (right) in the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) has his shot blocked by Kentucky Wildcats forward Marcus Lee (00) in the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers guard Traevon Jackson (12) battles for a loose ball against Kentucky Wildcats guard Andrew Harrison (5) in the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) pulls down a rebound against Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (30) dunks over Wisconsin Badgers forward Duje Dukan (13) in the first half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Andrew Harrison (5) shoots the ball against Wisconsin Badgers forward Nigel Hayes (10) during the second half during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Pool Photo, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats center Dakari Johnson (44) chases a loose ball against the Wisconsin Badgers during the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Marcus Lee (00) shoots the ball against Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) during the second halfduring the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) and center Dakari Johnson (44) during a press conference during practice before the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Julius Randle (30) smiles during practice before the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats forward Derek Willis (35) shoots during practice before the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (left) and brother Andrew Harrison (5) during practice before the semifinals of the Final Four in the 2014 NCAA Mens Division I Championship tournament at AT&T Stadium. Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky's Alex Poythress (22), Marcus Lee (00) and Dominique Hawkins (25) celebrate during the second half of an NCAA Midwest Regional final college basketball tournament game against Michigan. David J. Phillip, Associated Press

Aaron Harrison (2) launches the game-winning 3-pointer over Michigan defender Caris LeVert. Harrison hit four 3-pointers in the second half to help the Wildcats win 75-72 and advance to the Final Four. Thomas J. Russo, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky's James Young (1) and Dominique Hawkins (25) react during the second half of an NCAA Midwest Regional final college basketball tournament game against Michigan Sunday, March 30, 2014, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip) ORG XMIT: INKS140 David J. Phillip, Associated Press

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) brings the ball up court during the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Tad Smith Coliseum. Kentucky Wildcats defeated the Mississippi Rebels 84-70. Spruce Derden, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) and guard Aaron Harrison (2) celebrate against the Georgia Bulldogs in the semifinals of the SEC college basketball tournament at Georgia Dome. Kentucky won 70-58. Paul Abell, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats guard/forward James Young (1) reacts after hitting a basket against the LSU Tigers in the quarterfinals of the SEC college basketball tournament at Georgia Dome. Paul Abell, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats center Dakari Johnson (44) shoots against the Florida Gators during the first half in the championship game for the SEC college basketball tournament at Georgia Dome. Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports

Aaron "can score the ball, [and] should be and will be demanded to be a lock-down defender. With his size, his athleticism: one, we
can play a big zone; two, we should be able to press," said Kentucky coach Calipari.
Timothy D. Easley, Associated Press

"Great size, great ability to get to the rim, great skill level with the ball; has a mentality of a point guard, where he'll get everybody involved," said Kentucky coach John Calipari of twin Andrew. David J. Phillip, Associated Press

Coach Calipari explains why Johnson is better than he thought, "he is one of those bigs that we have had to play against that puts his body on you and you have to do something. One guy can't do it." Timothy D. Easley, Associated Press

Six-foot-six 200 pound James Young from Rochester Hills,
Michigan is the top-three small forward and top-15
overall recruit. Calipari says Young needs to get stronger to be able to get
bumped and keep going. "I call it bulldogging. … He doesn't have that yet.
His is more of a slippery game. But he can really score, and he's really
skilled."
Timothy D. Easley, Associated Press

Top-five power forward and top-25 overall recruit Marcus Lee, 6'9", 210, of Antioch, California. High-energy player Lee averaged a triple-double for the season. Coach Calipari says that "in time, he's going to be really good. He wants to learn; he wants to get better. He's a guy that wants to be in this kind of environment and take on this challenge." Evan Habeeb, USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky's Mr. Basketball and point guard Dominique Hawkins, caught the Wildcats' eye during the state tournament in Rupp Arena. "Just kind of blew me away with his will to win, his temperament on the court, his demeanor in helping his team win a championship," said Calipari. Six-foot-one Hawkins is a Richmond, Kentucky native and weighs in at 170 pounds. James Crisp, Associated Press