Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was given a rare
opportunity this week to usher in major changes to Israel’s political
makeup and foreign policy when Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz brought his
28-seat party into Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition.

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“Even [David] Ben Gurion didn’t have such a vast majority,” said
analyst Eitan Haber, referring to Israel’s first and longest-serving
prime minister. “With 94 seats, you can do whatever you want.”

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Arye Carmon, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, was quick
to welcome the weighty coalition. “We now have an opportunity to deal
with many of the ailments facing our society,” he said.

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But while many think this new mega-coalition means Mr. Netanyahu is
more likely to attack Iran, of whose nuclear military capacity Mr.
Netanyahu has sounded the alarm, Mr. Haber doesn’t agree.

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“What it means is that, when it comes to Iran or anything else,
Netanyahu can show [U.S. President Barack] Obama he doesn’t just
speak for a right-wing government. He speaks for 80 per cent of the
Israeli population.”

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Mr. Haber, who was Yitzhak Rabin’s chief political adviser and author
of books on Likud leaders Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon, says the
Israeli leader wants to stiffen the resolve of the United States and
the other permanent members of the UN Security Council as they
conduct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear facilities.

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Mr. Netanyahu prefers to put Israel’s domestic house in order rather
than focusing on international challenges, says Canadian lawyer Moshe
Ronen, who is vice-president (North America) of the World Jewish
Congress and a long-time friend of Mr. Netanyahu.

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“Bibi didn’t go looking for this deal,” said Mr. Ronen, using the
Prime Minister’s nickname, “so don’t expect any grand international
designs. That’s not his style.

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“But when it comes to Israel’s domestic agenda,” he added, “yes, I
think he’ll take the opportunity to do things he otherwise would not
have dared try.”

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Chief among those are two opportunities: to engineer a new policy for
the military conscription of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men, almost all
of whom have been exempted from service required of almost all other
Jewish Israelis; and to bring in electoral reforms.

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Both of these areas of reform have long been favoured by a majority
of Israelis, who want a new deal in their society in which the
national burdens are better shared and the votes of large numbers of
citizens are not overruled by small, often religious, political
parties that end up holding the balance of power in many governments.

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Indeed, these were the two most important things for Mr. Mofaz when
he entered into this coalition.

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“The moment the Prime Minister agreed to the two conditions – the Tal
Law [governing draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox] and the
change of the system of government, I thought that there was a basis
for dialogue,” he told an interviewer this week.

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A senior Netanyahu official agreed that these are the two areas
ripest for reform.

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On the issue of conscripting religious Jews, “the Prime Minister
wants a system where everyone does his fair share and where no one
group is demonized,” he said.

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Passing legislation to make conscription universal would never have
been tried before this coalition for fear the two main religious
parties would withdraw their vital support for the government.

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As for electoral reform, “it’s to be completed by the end of the
year,” the Netanyahu official said, referring to a Dec. 31 deadline
that was written into the coalition agreement with Mr. Mofaz.

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The reforms are to be in place by the time of the next election.

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Mr. Mofaz supports radical change, including electing half the
parliament in regional elections; increasing the electoral threshold
in the proportional representation system; and increasing the
proportion of votes required to overthrow the government in a no-
confidence motion.

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Mr. Netanyahu’s views are less clear and he approaches electoral
reform somewhat reluctantly.

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“If Bibi develops real trust in Mofaz, I could see him taking this
on,” Mr. Ronen said. “But it means risking the loss of support [from
the right-wing and religious parties],” he said. “That’s a risk he
may not be willing to take.”

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The Sephardi religious party, Shas, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael
Beitenu party, along with smaller parties, have resisted such change.

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The Obama administration welcomed the creation of this mega-coalition
specifically because it gives Mr. Netanyahu an opportunity to advance
the peace process with Palestinian leaders.

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No longer can the Israeli leader say the right wing will topple his
government if he pushes the agenda too far, U.S. officials say.

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That may be, but don’t hold your breath waiting for the peace
process, Mr. Haber said.

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“If Mofaz insists on doing all three things [conscription, electoral
reform and peace negotiations], he’ll fail,” he said. “Better to
choose fewer things and be successful.”

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But Mr. Mofaz insists he’s serious about the peace process, too, and
he has a published plan to prove it.

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Released in November, 2009, the plan calls for the immediate
establishment of a Palestinian state on 60 per cent of the territory
of the West Bank (with 99 per cent of the Palestinian population),
along with a promise to negotiate final borders equivalent to those
before the Six-Day War of 1967.

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Mr. Mofaz even says he is willing to negotiate with Hamas, the
militant Islamic movement that won the 2006 Palestinian election and
controls the Gaza Strip, if the organization is willing to come to
the table with Israel.