The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum
caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

Discussion and Outlook

Although cold-episode conditions have weakened substantially since the beginning of the year,
the overall patterns of oceanic temperature and atmospheric circulation in June were similar to those
observed during recent months. During June weak negative SST anomalies (Fig. T18) and
weaker-than-normal convection (Fig. T25) prevailed throughout the equatorial Pacific east of 160°E , and low-level
easterlies remained stronger than normal between 150°E and 160°W (Fig. T20).

Consistent with these features, the thermocline has been deeper than normal in the western
equatorial Pacific and shallower than normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This has resulted in a dipole
pattern of positive/ negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the western/ eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). The lack of any significant eastward shift in the positive subsurface temperature anomalies in the
west-central equatorial Pacific indicates that the present cold episode is likely to continue for the next
several months. This assessment of the situation is supported by the most recent NCEP coupled model
forecasts (Figs. F3 and F4) and other available coupled model and statistical predictions that indicate cold
episode conditions persisting through the end of 1999 and into the early part of 2000.

Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, and OLR are available on the Climate Prediction
Center homepage at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update).