Kim Jong Il Makes World Scary Place Even in Death: William Pesek

Television screens reporting the death of Kim Jong Il, leader of North Korea, are seen at an electronics store in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 19, 2011. Photographer: Chiho Jeong/Bloomberg

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- If there is a reason famous people
die in threes, imagine the lively debates Vaclav Havel, Kim Jong
Il and Christopher Hitchens are having in eternity’s waiting
room.

Havel had long been on the Nobel Peace Prize short list
for his role in bringing democracy to Czechoslovakia and central
Europe. Were there an award for the opposite feat, destabilizing
the world and playing a role in the deaths of millions, North
Korean leader Kim would win easily. And the indefatigable
Hitchens would be there to chronicle this celestial collision of
minds.

The question for those of us among the living is what Kim’s
departure means for peace and prosperity. There are three main
scenarios for the world’s most-isolated nation. One, more of the
same, and possibly worse. Two, a calculated détente with the
outside world. Three, the beginnings of an Arab Spring on the
Korean peninsula.

We know Kim Jong Un is the heir apparent, yet here’s what
we don’t know: virtually anything about the young man, not even
his exact age (estimates are 28 or 29); what’s in his mind and
heart; or if Kim Jong Il’s third son will even get the top job
in Pyongyang. A power struggle may be afoot.

If Kim the younger manages to extend his family’s dynasty
into a third generation, my money is on door No. 1 for the
foreseeable future. Far from being a comfort for markets, it
could be just as chaotic as any outcome. That’s because Kim Jong
Un may feel obliged to prove himself to the generals who covet
control of North Korea and its nuclear weapons.

Kim’s Scenario

Attacks last year that killed 50 South Koreans are a case
in point. It’s widely believed they were aimed at cementing Kim
Jong Un’s place in the regime. The worry, and the reason South
Korea called in police officers for emergency duty and
reinforced its borders, is that more such provocations are
almost inevitable. This is clearly Kim Jong Il’s favored
scenario, one he’s been grooming his son for ever since a 2008
stroke.

Scenario No. 2 -- North Korea opening to the world -- is
the one Havel favored. In speeches and op-eds, the writer,
dissident and former Czech president urged the international
community to push Kim to respect basic human rights.

It’s possible that the Swiss-educated Kim Jong Un, who’s
said to be a big American basketball fan, will surprise us.
Perhaps he will sense the limits of his dad’s economic model.
Blackmailing the world for food and oil is endearing North Korea
to no one. Nor are piracy, currency counterfeiting and weapons
sales. Freer trade and a touch of capitalism are preferable.

Havel’s Hopes

That would be grand for South Korea. For all the good news
flowing out of Seoul, it sits 120 miles from the North’s
capital. When credit rating companies eye the South’s outlook,
risks from the North will play a growing role. That goes for
Japan, too. North Korea is suddenly a more uncertain place in a
very vital neighborhood. The world should nudge China, North
Korea’s main benefactor, to encourage this shift.

Kim Jong Un is a wildcard. Will he notice the devastation
of the Kim dynasty of which Havel warned and take a different
path? Myanmar may offer a timely example of the benefits of
bringing international tensions down a peg. Who knows, U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may soon find herself in
Pyongyang. As a year, 2011 was a dismal one for dictators.
There’s no reason to think 2012 will be kinder to them.

Hitchens’s ‘1984’

Scenario No. 3 would not only be gratifying to Havel, but
perhaps Hitchens, too. After visiting Pyongyang a couple of
years back, Hitchens commented often on its similarities to the
world George Orwell conjured up in “1984” and questioned
whether the Kims were long for this world. Hitchens also wrote
extensively about people-power protests from Cairo to Bahrain.

The North Korean government has great control over what its
24 million people know about the outside world. But as we’ve
seen in Myanmar, information finds a way. It’s not clear North
Koreans will go along with this latest power shift.

“The people of North Korea are pretty much fed up with the
way they’re ruled,” says Bradley Martin, author of “Under the
Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader.” “That doesn’t mean
they’ll revolt any time soon -- that’s especially hard to do in
North Korea -- but as we’ve seen around the world the time does
seem to come eventually when each dictator has to answer for his
rule. I don’t envy the boy ruler.”

As historians sort out the legacies of our trio of recently
departed icons, there can be little doubt about Kim’s. A man who
built nuclear weapons while 2 million of his people died from
famine deserves every insult and indignity thrown his way.
Redemption is unthinkable. We can always hope the sins of the
father are atoned for by the son.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)