According to a new poll by CNN, if the "2012 election were somehow held again, Romney would capture 53% of the popular vote, with the President at 44%. Obama beat Romney 51%-47% in the popular vote in the 2012 contest. And he won the all-important Electoral College by a wider margin, 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206."

A new study by Harvard University factors race into the final popular vote tally of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and and concludes that "racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama
roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote" in both races.

A new poll by Pew Research suggests further erosion of President Obama's job approval rating. Since the period just after his re-election, his approval numbet has dropped from 55% to 47%, "as the public's economic expectations for the coming year have soured"

According to new poll from Washington Post-ABC News, President Obama's approval rate has dropped -5% in the last month to 50%. ABC News reports that his advantage after his reelection "appears to have
vanished as increasingly negative views among Americans about his
stewardship of the economy have forced his public approval rating back
down to the 50 percent mark. . . In December, just after he won a
second term, Obama held an 18-percentage-point advantage over
congressional Republicans on the question of whom the public trusted
more to deal with the economy. Now, it's a far more even split -- 44% to
40%, with a slight edge for the president -- but the share of those
saying they have confidence in "neither" has ticked up into double
digits."

Which US county gave President Obama his largest percentage of the vote in the 2012 Election? Was it a county in New York? Vermont? Washington, DC? The answer, according to Josh Green, is "Shannon County, tucked into the southwest corner of
South Dakota with a population of about 13,000. Ninety-three percent of
the county's voters supported Obama, the highest percentage of any
county in the country."

According to a study by votes compiled by the Orlando Sentinel, and analyzed by Ohio State
University professor Theodore Allen , more than 201,000 votes were lost in Florida in the November election due to long lines. The Sentinel continues: "At least
201,000 voters likely gave up in frustration on Nov. 6, based on
research Allen has been doing on voter behavior. His preliminary
conclusion was based on the Sentinel's analysis of voter patterns and
precinct-closing times in Florida's 25 largest counties, home to 86
percent of the state's 11.9 million registered voters."

With many speculating that Hillary Clinton will mount another run for president in 2016, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo appears also to be weighing his options. Will the Governor's sky-high popularity in his home state increase his standing within the Democratic party? Or is Senator Clinton unstoppable? A recent poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Cuomo holds a stunning 74% to 13%
approval rating, his highest score to date and the latest in a six-month string of 70+ percent positive ratings. But it is the demographic breakdown of these number that may add fuel to the Cuomo presidential bandwagon: 68% (to 18%) of Republicans and 70% (to 12%) of independent voters also approve of the way he is handling his job. In the end, New York is not a good indicator of national sentiment and popularity: there, it is Sen. Clinton who holds the edge, with a national approval rating at nearly 70%, higher than her husband or the president.

With the population of older white--and generally GOP-leaning--voters aging out and dying, is the Republican Party risking becoming a "regional party" if they don't increase support among Hispanic and other voters. GOP pollster Whit Ayres released a strategy memo saying that Republicans are, indeed, at risk in future elections: "Mitt Romney won a landslide among white voters, defeating Barack Obama
by 59 to 39 percent. In the process he won every large segment of white
voters, often by double-digit margins: white men, white women, white
Catholics, white Protestants, white old people, white young people. Yet
that was not enough to craft a national majority. Republicans have run
out of persuadable white voters. For the fifth time in the past six
presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote. Trying to win
a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller
and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political
proposition."

In an analysis of the popular and electoral vote in Election 2012, The Fix reports that while Republicans had a "major Latino problem,"it didn't cost them the election: "Mitt Romney would have needed to carry as much as 51% of the Hispanic vote in order to win the Electoral College -- a
number no Republican presidential candidate on record has been able to
attain and isn't really within the realm of possibility these days."

According to an analysis by the Los Angeles Times, "More than five weeks after election day, almost all the presidential
votes have been counted. Here's what the near-final tally reveals: The
election really wasn't close." The Times continues: "In the weeks since the election, as states have completed their counts,
Obama's margin has grown steadily. From just over 2 percentage points,
it now stands at nearly 4. Rather than worry about the Bush-Kerry
precedent, White House aides now brag that Obama seems all but certain
to achieve a mark hit by only five others in U.S. history - winning the
presidency twice with 51% or more of the popular vote."

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum? According to former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens, the campaign lost momentum in the final week as Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast: "After the storm, I never had a good feeling. Not that the
storm impacted things so much, per se, but these races -- a race like
this is a lot like an NBA game. It's all about ball control at the
end... We went from having these big rallies around the country to
literally sitting around in hotel rooms and there was just nothing we
could do about it." PollTrack must point out, however, that at no point during the last three months of the 2012 election cycle did its own analysis of the race--and its polling averages--indicate enough momentum for Romney to suggest a possible win. Indeed, PollTrack's Election Maps never showed Obama dropping below the 270-mark nor Romney rising above it, even after the President's sub-par debate performance in Denver in early-October.

With the final US House race decided late last week (North Carolina Democrat Rep. Mike McIntyre won his congressional reelection race), the 113th Congress will be represented by 201 Democrats and 234
Republicans. While the GOP retains control of the House, Democrats gained a total of eight seats overall in 2012.

As of late last week, President Obama's national lead over Mitt Romney rose to 50.9% to 47.4%. As NBC First Read notes:
"That's a bigger (and more decisive) margin that Bush's victory over
John Kerry in 2004 (which was Bush 50.7% and Kerry 48.2%). What's more,
the president's lead has grown to close to 3 points in Ohio, 4 points in
Virginia and 6 points in Colorado. One doesn't win Colorado by six
points without winning swing voters; there isn't a big-enough Democratic
base to make that argument."

A survey by CBS News reports that Americans are evenly split--47% to 47%--on the question of whether marijuana use should be legal. As CBS News observes: "This shift in public opinion was seen at the ballot box this month,
when Colorado and Washington became the first states in the nation to
approve of recreational marijuana use among adults over the age of 21.
Marijuana use of any kind, however, is still illegal under federal law.
It's unclear at this point how the Obama administration intends to
respond."

Here is a fascinating analysis of how the Obama campaign gauged its relative strengths and weakness through internal polls. Mark Blumenthal focuses on the Obama campaign polling operation and notes they their view of the state of the race was local rather than national. Rather than taking nation-wide polls, the campaignlimited its surveys to 11 battleground states (Colorado, Florida,
Iowa, Michigan,
Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and
Wisconsin), conducting them at regular intervals throughout the campaign. Campaign manager Jim Messina says this gave him a deeper understanding of
"how we were doing, where we were doing it, where we were moving --
which is why I knew that most of the public polls you were seeing were
completely ridiculous."

According to the Washington Post, the GOP is facing demographic challenges not just with Hispanic voters, but also the decline of white and the ascendency of black voters in the South: "The South [tells] a newer and more surprising story: The nation’s first
black president finished more strongly in the region than any other
Democratic nominee in three decades, underscoring a fresh challenge for
Republicans who rely on Southern whites as their base of national
support . . .

. . . Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly missed victory in North Carolina. But he also polled as
well in Georgia as any Democrat since Jimmy Carter, grabbed 44 percent
of the vote in deep-red South Carolina and just under that in
Mississippi — despite doing no substantive campaigning in any of those
states . . .

. . . Much of the post-election analysis has focused on the demographic crisis facing Republicans among
Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas. But the results across other
parts of the South, where Latinos remain a single-digit minority, point
to separate trends among blacks and whites that may also have big
implications for the GOP’s future."

Rasmussen Reports had Mitt Romney leading President Obama for most of the last month of the election--and by one-point, in its final tally--and also picked the winner in just three of nine swing
states. In an attempt to explain away the problem--only two pollsters out of 30, the other being Gallup, had Romney ahead in their final survey--blamed it on demographics: "A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we
underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of
voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant.
However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the
share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment
whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased,
or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has
a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly
60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority
vote . . . Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting
to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down
slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly."

PollTrack wonders why many other pollsters, from the more traditional phone/cellphone poll of ABC News to the online Google Consumer Survey, were far more accurate in assessing the demographic makeup of the electorate, including party affiliation (Both ABC and Google came very close to the actual outcome). Why did so many other pollsters get it right (or at least come close)? If President Obama wins by +3%, as appears to be the case with the inclusion of late ballots from California and Ohio (among other states), then Rasmussen (and Gallup) will have been off by +4% in their prediction of the outcome of election 2012, just hours before Americans began voting. This is a very large miss for two well-respected polling organizations.

While much has been made of shifting demographics in this election cycle--and it is clear from exit polling that an uptick in African-American, Hispanic, and young voters and a decrease in white participation from 2008 made a big difference in the outcome--it is easy to forget that on the issues, the GOP lost as well. As NBC News' Mark Murray, reports: "For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low
taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay
marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week's presidential
election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for
everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax
rates shouldn't increase for anyone."

Murray continues: "What's more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most
cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should
legally recognize same-sex marriage."

In "The Case of the Missing White Voters, Sean Trende writes: "For Republicans, that despair now comes from an electorate that seems to
have undergone a sea change. In the 2008 final exit polls (unavailable
online), the electorate was 75 percent white, 12.2 percent
African-American, 8.4 percent Latino, with 4.5 percent distributed to
other ethnicities. We’ll have to wait for this year’s absolute final
exit polls to come in to know the exact estimate of the composition this
time, but right now it appears to be pegged at about 72 percent white,
13 percent black, 10 percent Latino and 5 percent 'other.'” PollTrack points out that a +3% drop off of such a large Demographic was very significant in this election, representing one of the most important factors in Obama's victory.

We still await final results from Florida. The race is still razor close. Provisional ballots are slowly being counted. PollTrack called 50 out of 50 States (that includes DC's 3-EVs) correctly. Will Florida make it 51? Right now, it looks like Obama may squeak out a victory there. Stay tuned.

How did PollTrack do, in terms of correctly predicting the outcome of Election 2012?

Quite well.

As for our Presidential Maps, we correctly predicted the outcome of all of the 50 races decided as of this morning. We await word in Florida, the one state that PollTrack noted--on Monday evening--was very difficult to call.

As for our US Senate Race Chart, PollTrack predicted 32 out of 33 races.

AS it turns out, the only state that PollTrack "missed" turns out to be Too-Close-To-Call as of this morning. On Monday evening, the state appeared so close in aggregate polling that it was the last to be called by this website (late-Monday evening). PollTrack called it for Romney based on last-minute polling. In which column will it wind up? Stay tuned.

Florida was the final state called last night by PollTrack. Florida was the most difficult call for PollTrack. And out of 51 Electoral Races--from Washington, D.C. to Alaska--Florida is the only race called incorrectly by PollTrack.

50 out of 51 races. Not bad.

Thank you, loyal supporters of PollTrack! And thank you for your patience through today's server problems.

. . . the electoral math just got a bit steeper for Mitt Romney. With Florida looking increasingly difficult for Romney--the vast majority of uncounted votes are in heavily Democratic counties--we're at the point where it may be mathematically impossible for the GOP nominee to reach the major number of 270.

That Michigan wall called quickly--suggesting a substantial lead in the state for Obama--matters. Given the voting pattern of neighboring states, each reflective of a regional wave of demographics, voting patterns, and history, a big win in Michigan bodes well for Obama in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even, to an extent, Ohio. This is the first sign that the president's "Midwest firewall" may, in fact, be holding.

With Romney doing better than McCain in key GOP-leaning precincts and Obama matching his 2008 totals in Democratic precincts--not to mention a first-wave of exit polling that reports that race at 49% to 49%--Virginia promises to be close. We're keeping a watchful eye on these numbers. Like Florida, a must-win state for Romney but not for Obama.

In tonight's returns, Romney is holding his own and the president is matching (or in a few cases) exceeding his vote totals from 2008. PollTrack will watch these numbers very closely. The state promises to be close (PollTrack found this state the most difficult to call). Obama does not need this state to win, but it is crucial to Romney's chances. So a lot is riding on Florida for the GOP nominee.

Early returns from key precincts in Ohio, as well as exit polls and the demographic breakdown of the electorate, suggest that president Obama is keeping up with his pace in 2008, yet another sign that the state may be difficult for Romney to capture. Stay tuned.

According to Exit Polls in Pennsylvania, on the question of who would do a better job of handling Medicare, the president holds a slight lead: 49% to 47%. Yet, in a state with a very large share of senior voters, this number may suggest a dampening of support for Romney among a demographic that has formed the backbone of the Republican party. With Exit Polls reporting a +4% lead for Obama in the state, it appear that Romney faces an uphill battle.

According to Exit Polls in North Carolina, the President and Romney are tied: 49% to 49%. Once again, if Romney does not have a clear lead in GOP-leaning NC, how will he do in states less Republican (like Ohio) or slightly Democratic leaning, such as Iowa and Wisconsin.

39% of voters in Ohio today were Democrats, a number that GOP-leaning commentators argued would not be achieved. Is this enough to put President Obama over the top in the state? With Exit Polls suggesting a +3% lead for Obama--51% to 48%--Romney's prospects appear to have dimmed somewhat.

PollTrack has a question about Virginia: if the exit polls are right--and it is 49% to 49% in the state--how will Mitt Romney fair in states that are far less GOP-leaning, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and, even, Ohio?

A possible problem for Mitt Romney: the percentage of white voters in this election appears to be the same as 2008: 73%. Given Obama's enormous advantage with voters of color--and an increase in support among Hispanics (and, according to exit polls, a bump up to 10% participation from 9% in 2008)--the white vote may not be enough to put Romney over the top nationally. Stay tuned.

Nationally voters believe that Mitt Romney would do a better job of handling the economy (51% to 47%), but on issues of empathy and the question of who shares their values most, voters give the nod to Obama. Which point of view will win out in the end?

Much has been made by commentators about Mitt Romney's lead with independent voters in a number of the latest tracking polls. A note of caution: this year, and very much due to the rise of the Tea Party, many voters who self-describe as "independent" are, in fact, Tea Party conservatives (many of whom are supporting Romney). When surveys consider the sentiment of another key demographic group--one heretofore associated with independent voters, but not necessarily in this cycle--"moderates," i.e., voters in the middle of the political spectrum, many disillusioned by two-part polarization--Obama leads, by as much as +20%. Will this cycle dynamically redefine the term "independent"? PollTrack will have more on this issue after Election 2012.

PollTrack's final national polling average for the 2012 presidential race shows President Obama with a lead of +1.4%, a marked improvement from his poll average of just seven days ago. Indeed, in the last week, the vast majority of national surveys reported a slight but clear momentum for the president, particularly in the days following Hurricane Sandy. In our final average, Obama is at 48.9% and his GOP challenger Mitt Romney is at 47.5%.

Stay tuned for PollTrack Political Director, Maurice Berger's Live Blogging (on the Presidential Maps page, for the presidential race; on Writing on the Wall for US Senate races) starting today at 5:00 PM EST.

Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 3:30 PM EST this afternoon shows the president just grazing the 49.0% mark, a number that would tend to confirm his structural lead in the swing states. Obama now
stands at 48.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 1:30 PM EST this afternoon shows a +0.2% increase for the president from this morning. Obama now
stands at 48.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 6:30 PM EST this evening continues to show momentum for President Obama. Indeed, in the freshest round of polls--those released over the past day or so--Obama leads in most, is tied in a few. Romney no longer leads in any national poll released over the past 36-hours. Just as significant, the president is at 49% or 50% in many of these polls--UPI, Rand, PPP, Pew, ABC/Washington Post, YouGov, JZ-Analytics/Washington Times--a threshold that suggest a durable national lead. Obama now
stands at 48.4% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.8%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 10:00 AM EST this morning continues to show modest momentum for President Obama. Obama now
stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 46.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.5%.

PollTrack has moved Virginia on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic, for an Obama Electoral College lead of 303 EVS to Romney's 206. Florida remains undecided on Today's Map at 29 EVs.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 6:00 PM EDT this evening continues to show modest momentum for President
Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now
stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to show slight momentum for President
Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now
stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows a stable race, with President
Obama holding on to his lead, now just above one-percent. Obama now
stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race, with President Obama up by more than one-percent, suggesting slight momentum for him. Obama now
stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

This afternoon's PollTrack national Polling Average as of this evening at 5:30 PM EDT suggests a bit of forward momentum for President Obama. Even including the large lead for Romney in the now suspended Gallup Poll--we continue to factor in tracking polls issued over the past ten days--Obama now has a full +1.0% lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney--47.7% to 46.7%. Stay tuned to see if this is a durable lead or just a day of good polling for the president.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race. Once again, a word of caution:
several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus
making it more difficult to access the current state of the race.
President Obama now
stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

PollTrack will be live blogging election results and offering detailed state by state analysis on election night, 6 November, starting at 5:00 PM EST. Instructions on how to follow the Election Day Map and analysis will be posted the morning of the 6th. Stay with us throughout election night for some of the smartest and most accurate analysis on the web!

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 4:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows the race little changed. Once again, a word of caution:
several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now
stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning continues to show a very close race. A continued word of caution:
several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy.
Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now
stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for an Obama lead of +0.4%.

With half of this weeks polls in Florida showing President Obama slightly head--and the PollTrack average now a virtual tie--the state moves on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to To-Close-To-Call. PollTrack notes that Mitt Romney's electoral math just got a lot harder. A close race in states like North Carolina and Virginia, and with Obama holding firm in Ohio, it appears that in the Electoral College, at least, the president's path to victory has grown modestly, but clearly, stronger. Stay tuned.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 3:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests that the race remains very close. A continued word of caution:
several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy.
Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now
stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 11:00 AM EDT this morning suggests that the race remains very close. A word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for additional polling. President Obama now
stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 47.6%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests a race that remains very close. President Obama now
stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the
presidential
race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to suggest a slight improvement for the
president as well as a modest degree of momentum. President Obama now
stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.8%.

In the all-important race for Electoral Votes, the president maintains an advantage. Right now, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers on Today's Map suggests a lead for Obama of 290 to Romney's 235. Virginia remains Too-Close-To-Call at 13 EVs.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race as of 4:00 PM EDT today suggests a slight improvement in the president's standing and a degree of momentum, as well. It is unclear whether this is the result of statistical noise--several polls indicated improved standing for Obama--or a durable momentum as we move towards Election Day. President Obama now
stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.7%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race as of 10:00 AM EDT today remain unchanged from yesterday afternoon. President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race as of 3:00 PM today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race as of noon today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.3%.

With a number of polls out over the past few days in Colorado, PollTrack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. Obama now leads in 290 Electoral Votes, Romney in 235, and 13 EVs (Virginia) remain Too-Close-To-Call (VA moved back from Leaning Democratic to TCTC late last night based on two days of polling suggesting that the race is virtually tied in the state).

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race remains unchanged from lat night's report. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

There is virtually no change this evening from PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 6:00 PM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

Today's Map reports an improved standing for President Obama in the race for Electoral Votes. With PollTrack's moving of Virginia from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map, Obama's count inched up to 294 EVs. Romney is holding steady at 235. Colorado remains the one state that is Too-Close-To-Call.

Based on analysis of recent voting patterns in the state and two new polls that report that President Obama is now leading in Virginia--Obama 50%, Romney 43%, according to Old Dominion University; Obama 49%, Romney 46% in a new (Newsmax/Zogby survey--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

PollTrack's second wave aggregate of today's national polls in the presidential
race continues to report an extremely close race. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now
stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a perfect tie. PollTrack continues to believe that the fundamentals of the race favor the president, who now stands at 281 electoral votes to Romney's 235 EVs on Today's Map. 22 EVs remain too-close-to-call.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM this morning, President Obama now
stands at 47.3% and Mitt Romney at 47.1%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%. Return early evening for our national average with today's tracking polls included.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race now reports a virtual tie. Today was a busy day for polls, so the new average is based on a broad array of data. President Obama now stands at 47.2% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Romney of +0.1%. While momentum has shifted to Romney over the past twenty-four hours (he has made up a +0.9% deficit), the race has grown even cloudier, locked as it is in a virtual deadlock.

While the fundamentals of the electoral college still favor the president (he leads in states totaling more than 270 EVs), Romney's ascendance over the past three weeks has been rapid, definitive, and--according to the latest polls--durable (not to mention unprecedented). Will tonight's debate make a difference, affording one candidate or the other forward momentum? Will last minute events--and the candidate's response to them--break the tie? Or will Election Day be a squeaker? For both our Republican and Democratic readers, PollTrack is as nervous as you are!

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 6:00 PM this
afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential
race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 5:00 PM this
afternoon, Obama is at 47.6% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +1.1%.
As important, across the swing state polls, the president appears to continue to be reversing some, but not all of Romney's gains over the past three weeks, and continues to lead by varying margins in all but three of the swing states, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, where Romney leads.

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a lead for President Obama. As of 4:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%. More important, across the polls, the president appears to have a slight momentum heading into Monday's debate as he overtakes or ties Romney's lead in all of the surveys (with the exception of Gallup).

PollTrack's average of national polls as of 5:00 PM EDT continues to show President Obama with a very slight lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney. The aggregate numbers are 47.8% for Obama, 47.2% for Romney, giving the president an overall lead of +0.6%--numbers pointing to a race that is virtually tied nationally.

Here is the verdict of three snap polls on last night's debate: these so-called instant polls all report that President Obama--to one extent or another--won last night's debate: CBS News had Obama besting Romney 37% to 30%, at CNN Obama came out ahead at 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%. Keep in mind that voter perceptions of debates often shift as succeeding news cycles parse the outcome. In the first presidential debate and vice-presidential debate, initial results reported a closer result, while subsequent polling in the days following reported far bigger leads for both Mitt Romney and Joe Biden. Will Obama's edge expand or decline? Stay tuned.

Who will do better in tonight's debate? That's the question asked by a new Pew Research poll. 41% of voters surveyed say President Obama will do better, while 37% expect Mitt Romney to prevail. Two weeks ago, voters expected Obama to win by
a 51% to 29% margin--an expectations game that further hurt him in the wake of a poor debate performance. Who will these lower expectations help or hurt? Stay tuned.

After a week of consistent leads in PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers (by up to +2%), Mitt Romney has as of this evening dropped behind President Obama. The race nationally now stands at Obama 48.1% and Romney 47.0. PollTrack believes that with the race now virtually tied, momentum coming out of tomorrow's debate could be crucial. Still, with improved national and swing state polling, the president goes into tomorrow's debate as the (very slight) favorite according to PollTrack's electoral analysis.

One note of caution for both sides: it is very unusual to see the lead flip back and forth this late in a presidential cycle, indicating a very soft core of still "persuadable" voters and the potential for events on the ground to influence them. With each side firmly in control of its base, the potential for a close race or a race decided by events (or gaffes) beyond the control of the campaigns remains a reality. While the fundamentals of the race--both nationally and electorally--have and continue to favor president Obama, the potential for a late-in-the-game surprise could afford Romney a boost or push the president further forward.

After ten days in which Mitt Romney's support among likely voters has steadily risen and President Obama's have steadily declined, PollTrack's averaging of all national survey's polling voter sentiment over the past seven days reports a tightening of the race. Our aggregate of all polls has the race exactly tied, with both Romney and Obama at 47.2% each. This is good news for the president, indicating that the support he lost may be starting to return while's Romney may be declining.

A few more days of polling should be more definitive. Tuesday night's debate could significantly alter the dynamic of the race, either improving Romney's standing and giving him renewed momentum (which may have been damped by last week's vice-presidential debate) or helping President Obama to recoup a lead lost in the ten days following the first presidential debate. We are at a key point in the race, so check back this week for polling updates.

With yesterday's Rasmussen survey showing the President with a +1% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--the poll normally has a slight GOP tilt--PollTrack wonders if Romney's momentum from last week's debate is slowing down. Other trackers have also showed movement back towards Obama, but with Romney holding onto an aggregate lead of less than 1%.

Swing state polls have been fairly erratic, with some polls showing a substantial lead for one candidate or another (from +6% for Obama in Ohio to +7% for Romney in Florida) to a virtual tie. In many instances, polls are alternately reporting leads for both candidates in the same state (most polls show Obama leading in Ohio, others give Romney a slight lead; in Florida, it is just the opposite, with one poll showing Romney up by +7%, another Obama up by +4%.

What these numbers suggest is a race in flux, a degree of statistical noise due to a major event in this past week's news cycle (the president's poor debate performance) and a shifting enthusiasm gap, with GOP voters now more revved up than Democrats. Has Vice-President Biden's feisty debate performance fired up unhappy Democrats? Has Rep. Ryan's cool resolve added to the sense of a GOP ticket on the rise? Did either performance move the needle with independent voters? A few more days of polling should give us a better sense of the direction of the race leading into next week's presidential debate in New York.

With a new crop of polls in Ohio suggesting that President Obama is the slight favorite there--and polls in traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin and New Hampshire reporting a much closer race, but with a Democratic advantage--PollTrack believes that the fundamentals of the presidential race still point to an Obama victory. But with other swings states drawing very close, e.g. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida, where some polls now show Mitt Romney in the lead, PollTrack also believes that the race has grown, much close, volatile, and less predictable. In other words, the final month of Election 2012 begins with uncertainty rather than clarity.

The forthcoming debates--and the possibility of events in forthcoming news cycles helping or hurting either candidate--will determine whether the race will be won by Obama or Romney by a comfortable margin or a razor thin one. Still, the president continues to maintain a larger base of electoral votes than Romney. On the other hand, a wave of support towards the GOP candidate--with so many swing states now virtually tied--could tip the balance in his favor. Or, of course, the opposite might come to pass. Stay tuned, loyal readers. This is going to get interesting.

With polls consistently reporting that the race in Virginia and Florida are tightening considerably, PollTrack moves Virginia on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call and Florida from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning GOP.

Based on national polling out today--a full 5-days after the first presidential debate--PollTrack is seeing a discernible tightening of the race. We are waiting for additional polling in the swing states (due over the next few days) to better understand whether the tightening of the race is statistical noise (or simple fall out of the first debate) or a genuine drop in the president's support and/or an increase in Mitt Romney's support. PollTrack suspects at this point that the tightening may be real, and possibly durable. As such, tightening of swing state polls has resulted in substantive race ratings in Colorado, Iowa,Florida and Virginia, now rated as Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map--a dynamic swing from a week ago when all were rated Leaning Democratic.

While Mitt Romney's debate performance received positive reviews in the media--and the president's quite negative--it may be difficult to discern the long-term implications of the candidates' first dust up. For one, more potential voters watched this debate than the first one in 2008 (58 million in 2012 as opposed to 52.4 million four years earlier." Yet, while PollTrack expects at least a modest improvement in Romney's standing over the next few days, it doubts that the president's overall support will decline substantially.

Historically, however, incumbent president's tend not to do well in their first debate (and most go on to win reelection). Equally significant, few debates have actually altered the overall dynamic of the election cycle: the candidate who is ahead coming into the first debate usually wins (only Al Gore did not, though he did, in fact, win the popular vote). But there are always exceptions. So stay tuned.

A new poll has bad news for the Romney campaign: the survey, by NBC News/WSJ/Telemundo, reports that President Obama now leads Romney among Hispanic voters by a whopping +50% margin--70% to 20%. The survey's background analysis continues: "It appears that Romney's comments that 47% of Americans are dependent
on government took a toll on his standing with Hispanics. Romney's
favorability score has cratered with the group, with his negatives
hitting an all-time high. Fifty-three percent now say they have a
negative impression of Romney and just 23% say they have a positive one.
That 30-point difference is 17 points worse than in August."

Traditionally, it has been extremely difficult in recent years for GOP candidates for president to win without picking off a sizable amount of the Hispanic vote, in the 35% to 45% range. Not only does Romney poor standing hurt him in the national popular vote, it also makes it very difficult to win purple states with large Hispanic populations, most notably Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Stay tuned.

Several polls in Virginia report that President Obama continues to lead his GOP challenger Mitt Romney, but by varying margins. One poll, by Roanoke College, for example, reports a significant Democratic advantage, Obama 47%, Romney 39. Another, by ARG, reports only a modest lead of +2%, 49% to 47% (though it has Obama near the 50% mark). PollTrack continues to rate the state on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.

According to a new survey sponsored by the YWCA, President Obama now holds a huge, +18% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney among women, 49% to 31%. Similarly, a Quinnipiac poll released this morning reports that the president holds a huge +18% lead among women, 56% to 38%. (The poll reports that Romney holds a much smaller lead among men, 53% to 42%.). If this lead holds, it may well be impossible, from a demographic standpoint, for Romney to cobble together enough votes from men and other groups hospitable to the Republican Party to prevail in this November's election.

Another poll--this one from the well-regarded and traditionally very accurate Des Moines Register, which shows the president up by +4%, Obama 49%, Romney 45%--supports PollTrack's decision to move Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

A smattering of polls released yesterday for the national presidential race report that President Obama is leading by an average of 4% percentage points: Fox News, for example, has Obama up by +5% (48% to Mitt Romney's 43%); Gallup reports a 6% lead (50% to 44%), and Reuters/Ipsos, a +7% lead (49% to 42%). The GOP-leaning Rasmussen Survey reports the race toed at 46%.

With a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowashowing a modest lead for the President over his GOP challenger, but also over the 50%-mark --it's now Obama 51%, Romney 44% according to the poll,--PollTrack has decided to move the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call, where it has been from the beginning of this election cycle, to Leaning Democratic. Since the PPP survey tends to trend slightly Democratic, PollTrack will keep a close eye on fresh polling in the state.

With the results of three recent polls reporting that the president is both leading and at, near or above the 50% mark in Florida, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

With three new polls showing a small but consistent lead by President Obama over Mitt Romney, PollTrack moves North Carolina on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. This move is significant, indicating a broader shift in recent days away from Romney and towards the president. As swing states that continue to trend modestly Republican--like North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia--now indicate a slight preference for Obama, classic purple states, like Ohio and Colorado, are increasingly showing strength for Obama.

Indeed, PollTrack has tracked another consistent trend: in many recent polls in battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the president has inched up to (or in a number of cases over) the all-important 50% mark. With the probability fading that the president's convention bounce was merely transient--and the real possibility that these numbers might remain stable for the time being--PollTrack senses that the election may have reached a tipping point.From the perspective of history, such trends are very difficult for challengers to reverse this close to the election. Stay tuned.

Due to the very close and contradictory polling in Florida--Romney is up by+1% in one poll, Obama in another--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call.A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Florida reports that President Obama leads Romney by four points, 50% to 46%.
Given the slight Democratic title of that poll, PollTrack will await the next round of polling in the state to determine if it has moved sufficiently in one direction or another to call the state.

With the president leading by as much as seven points--and hovering at or near the all-important 50% mark, the state appears to favor Obama. PollTrack continues to rate Virgina on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.

Two just released polls in Wisconsin--Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT which shows the race at Obama 51%, Romney 45% and Marquette Law School, with Obama 54%, Romney at 40%--suggest that recent reports that the state is in play may have been exaggerated. Based on recent polling data, demographics, and historical models, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. On Tomorrow's Map, the state moves from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.

With unemployment relatively high in the state--and the demographics fairly evenly divided between the two parties--the state of Colorado continues to look like a toss up to PollTrack. A new poll by the Denver post concludes: "after months of campaigning, multiple
visits and millions spent on advertising, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
are dead even in Colorado, according to a new Denver Post poll. The poll results . . . show Obama ahead of Romney by a single, statistically insignificant
percentage point, 47% to 46%. When former New Mexico Gov. Gary
Johnson, who is running as the Libertarian nominee for president, is
factored in, Obama's single-percentage-point lead remains, 45% to
44%. Johnson registers at 3% of the vote." PollTrack believes that the trend line for the state continues to favor the president (especially factoring in Johnson, who may pull more votes away from the GOP than the Democrats). Nevertheless, the state remains Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.

A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that by a margin of 49% to 42%, voters believe the Obama campaign
is "saying things it believes to be true" rather than "intentionally
misleading people." The poll suggests a serious problem for the GOP challenger, with Mitt Romney's numbers nearly reversed:
43% say that his campaign is telling the truth, while 48% say not. PollTrack believes that this perception is one factor that might make it very difficult--if not impossible-- for Romney to overcome Obama's advantage coming out of the two conventions.

A new survey by Philadelphia Inquirer poll in Pennsylvania reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by +11% among likely voters, 50% to 39%. PollTrack now sees the state as out of reach for the GOP. It moves PA on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.

Three new polls from Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist report that President Obama's lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Virginia has increased among likely voters. That the president is near or at the 50% mark in all three states suggests a problem for his GOP challenger.

A new surveyby EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Based on polling and historical models PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Strong Democratic.

A new survey by Gravis Marketing in Virgina reports that Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by +5%--49% to 44%. As a result of this and other polling and historical models, PollTrack moves the state from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.

One reason why the Democratic convention may have helped President Obama's case with American voters: they have high marks for its speakers. In a pre-convention poll, a USA Today/Gallup poll reported that "three of the four principal Democrats the party is showcasing this
week in prime-time Democratic convention speeches in Charlotte, N.C.,
are generally in good favor with the majority of Americans. According to [the poll] conducted prior to both parties'
conventions, former President Bill Clinton, first lady Michelle Obama,
and President Barack Obama all have broad appeal, while Vice President
Joe Biden receives mixed reviews." Here is Gallup's chart:

Another analysis of the post-GOP convention bounce, this time from Gallup, reports that Mitt Romney received a negative "bounce from last week's Republican National
Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug.
31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who
preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the
convention." Here is Gallup's chart:

In news that is virtually unprecedented for a major party candidate coming out of a convention, the Princeton Election Consortium reports that Mitt Romney actually received a negative bounce.
The PEC observes: "Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by
6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical
perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk
in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in
the hosting party's favor. It is all the more remarkable because of the
relatively small number of state polls over the last week, so that the
Meta-analysis's inputs have not fully turned over... So the negative
bounce may be larger than what is shown in the graph. Such an event
would have been missed in past years (and even this year) because
national polls don't have the best resolution."

PollTrack is seeing the beginning of what may be a discernible post-convention "bounce" for the Democrats. With Romney's bounce receding in the GOP-tilted Rasmussen tracking poll (the challenger's 4% lead is now down to 1%) and Gallup tracking (already having shown no bounce for Romney) now reporting that President Obama is up by +3%, it appears there is already an uptick in support for the Democratic ticket. Even more dramatic is Obama's approval number in Gallup: he has gone from a net negative earlier in the week to a net positive of +9--with his approval rating now at 52%. What is most significant is that these numbers do not reflect the full brunt of the Democratic convention, which only ended yesterday. With a seven-day rolling average, the convention only partially registers in Gallup's numbers. Even Rasmussen's three-day average is based on interviews conducted largely before the president's speech. Stay tuned.

Another indication of the public's declining interest in last week's GOP convention: a survey by Pew Research released this week reports that Americans paid far less attention to this year's Republican
convention than it did four years ago. Just 37% say they watched all or
some of the Republican convention, down from 56% in 2008. PollTrack will be tracking the public response to the Democratic convention to see if this decline goes beyond partisan lines. Another problem for the GOP nominee, Mitt Romney: 20% of those who tuned into the convention cited Clint
Eastwood's speech as the convention highlight, while just 17% named the nominee's speech.

One post-convention polling detail that should modestly boost the Romney campaign: On Saturday, the Reuters/Ipsos poll reported that Mitt Romney emerged out of the Tampa with a slight improvement in his image among voters. 31% of registered voters found Romney "likeable", up from
26% when the convention started. By contrast, President Obama's likeability rating, according to Ipsos, is 48%, suggesting a deeper problem for the GOP challenger.

A new survey by Public Policy Polling suggest that Missouri continues to look like a tough sell for Barack Obama. The poll reports a strong +12% lead for Romney in the state, 53% to 41%.PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to Safe Republican.

One reason for Mitt Romney's lack of a discernible bounce after the GOP convention may well be the relative unpopularity of his convention speech. According to a new poll by Gallup just 38% rated Mitt Romney's speech as excellent or good and 16% rated it as poor or
terrible. Just as Romney's post-convention bounce is among the lowest of any challenger since 1960, he also receives the lowest rating of a convention speech since GOP challenger Bob
Dole's speech in 1996.

With several polls showing little movement in the presidential race--the sole exception at this point, Rasmussen, has a slight, overall GOP-tilt, discernible both in this election relative to other polls and in 2008--it appears that Mitt Romney's convention bounce is very modest (or, according to Gallup and Reuter's-Ipsos, non-existent). One problem for Romney is suggested by numbers released by Variety on Sunday: a considerable drop from 2008 for TV viewers who watched the GOP standard bearer's acceptance speech. According to Variety, Nielsen data shows Romney's speech averaged
30.3 million viewers across nine networks, about 22% short of the nearly 39 million who tuned
in for Sen. John McCain four years ago. These numbers suggest one of two possibilities: a specific decline in voter interest in the presidential race (or the GOP presidential race) or a general decline in viewer interest for convention coverage.

PollTrack will compare GOP convention viewership with that for the Democrats, but suspects that these numbers will also be lower. As for Gallup, their tracking poll as of Sunday afternoon reports a virtually tied race (with Obama leading by +1%), exactly where the race was before the start of the GOP convention. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll reports a similar lack of movement by the convention's end, with Obama regaining a +1% lead. A polling average of the three tracking polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos) relative to where the race was before the start of the GOP convention, suggests an overall bounce for Romney of +1.3%, one of the lowest post conventions bounces for a challenger in recent years.

While President Obama's lead in Nevada has narrowed since June--according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling Obama leads Romney by +3%, 50% to 47%--PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Democratic on Today's Map due to the president's all important reaching of the 50% mark.

Voters have a mixed view of Rep. Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney's VP pick. According to a new Gallup poll,
38% say their opinion is favorable, and 36% saying it is unfavorable.With a sizable portion of the electorate undecided in their view of Romney, there may be room for his overall numbers to rise after yesterday's convention speech and the national exposure it provides. Still, the candidate's overall favorable number is relatively low for a VP candidate.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Missouri reports that Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 50% to 43%. While other polls have shown an even closer race, PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Republican on Today's Map.

A new survey by the Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania reports that President Obama now holds a significant +9% lead over Mitt Romney--51% to 42%. PollTrack moves the state on Tomorrow's Map from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.

Another poll just released, by the Tarrance Group, reports that President Obama is locked in a very close race nationally with Mitt Romney. The President leads by just one point in the poll, 47% to 46%, with 7% undecided.

While a new Associated Press/GfK poll reports that President Obama is only +1% ahead of Mitt Romney nationally--47% to 46%--it also shows a more significant gap when people were asked who they thought
would win: 58% of adults said Obama to be
re-elected, while just 32% said Romney.The expectation of a win is often important in a close election, dampening support for the candidate who is thought to have a lesser chance of winning. PollTrack will continue to track both the national numbers as well as voter expectations.

The one possible vice-presidential bounce for Mitt Romney may be evident in Rep. Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. A new Marquette Law School poll reports that President Obama leads Mitt in Wisconsin by three points, 49% to 46%. An earlier poll by Marquette had the president up by +5%. Several other polls in the state over the past week report a similar improvement in Romney's numbers. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call.

According to Gallup, "three months before the election, President Barack Obama gets good
marks from Americans for his handling of terrorism, fair marks for
education and foreign affairs, but poor marks on immigration and three
big economic issues: the federal budget deficit, creating jobs, and the
economy generally." Here is Gallup's chart:

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To Call to Leaning Democratic.

Despite the addition of Wisconsin US Rep. Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket, A new CNN/Opinion Research survey in Wisconsin shows President Obama still leading Mitt Romney, 49% to
45%. PollTrack rates the rate on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.

PollTrack's US Senate Race Chart will be coming soon. With PollTrack's
outstanding track record on predicting the outcome of US Senate
races--and the potential of a very close overall race for control of the
Senate--this year's chart should be very exciting.

A new poll by Franklin & Marshall College reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania by six points, 44% to 38%. These numbers actually show a gain of +6% for the GOP challenger; Obama led by 12 points in the poll in June.

In numbers that cannot be positive for the president's reelection effort, A new poll by CNN/Opinion Research reports that optimism about how things are going in the country now at 36% --
down from 7% in April; 63% say that things are going poorly.

In another sign that the Romney campaign may be in trouble, a new poll by SurveyUSA in Missouri (taken before Paul Ryan was aded to the GOP ticket) reports a virtually tied race, with Mitt Romney barely ahead of President Obama, 45% to 44%. While the state served as a nearly perfect bellwether of presidential cycles in the 20th-century, it has recently trended Republican. Indeed, by contrast, SurveyUSA reports that in the state's upcoming US Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and GOP challenger Todd Akin, the Republican leads by a significant +11%, 51% to 40%. Will the addition of Paul Ryan help Romney in the state of Missouri, as well as nationally? Stay tuned.

In yesterday's USA Today/Gallup poll on voter attitudes about Mitt Romney's pick of Paul Ryan, another interesting detail: "The poll also finds 17% of adults say they are more likely to vote for
Romney in November because Ryan is his running mate -- about the same
impact Sarah Palin had for John McCain four years ago among registered
voters." If these numbers hold up, PollTrack believes that Romney's selection could be a significant drag on the ticket. Still, Ryan is relatively unknown to many sectors of the electorate, has his formidable campaign skills have not been tested. PollTrack will be monitoring closely polling on Ryan and his effect on the GOP ticket.

The first poll out of the gate to test the strength of Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate suggests that the pick may not boost the prospects of the GOP ticket. The poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that "more of the public gives [Ryan] lower marks than high ones. Ryan,
a Wisconsin congressman, is seen as only a 'fair' or 'poor' choice by
42% of Americans vs. 39% who think he is an "excellent" or "pretty good"
vice presidential choice. . . . USA
TODAY/Gallup Polls of registered voters after the announcements of
running mates since Dick Cheney in 2000 all showed more positive
reactions. Only Dan Quayle in a 1988 Harris Poll of likely voters was
viewed less positively than Ryan, with 52% rating Quayle as a "fair" or
"poor" vice presidential choice. The Ryan poll includes all adults, not
just registered voters." PollTrack cautions that snap polls often do not take into account the much longer process of voter assessment of candidates. Still, these numbers suggest a problem for the Romney campaign if they persist.

Some commentators have pointed out that the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate may help the GOP team win Wisconsin. While this may be true, the current polling in the state suggests that Ryan may indeed give Romney a modest boost in the state, but not enough to hand the state to the Republicans. Stay tuned to see if future polling suggests a change in this dynamic.

PollTrack has another observation, however: Romney can win election 2012 without Wisconsin (Bush won both the 2000 and 2004 cycles without the state). But is it almost inconceivable according to PollTrack's calculation, that Romney-Ryan can emerge victorious without Ohio (not Republican in modern times has won the presidency without it). With this in mind, would Rob Portman have been a better choice for the Romney campaign political figure who remains very popular in his home state?

Mitt Romney selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan--while an early and dramatic turn in election 2012--may not prove decisive to the outcome. (Few VP picks are.) But PollTrack's biggest caution: do not read too much into polls about the pick. While hardening public opinion can doom or boost a candidate--and the Obama campaign's attempt to define Romney has definitely resulted in a negative downturn in Romney's likeability numbers that may be very difficult to reverse at this point--the true contours of a presidential election often do not become clear until after both party's nominating conventions.

Right now, PollTrack sees the choice of Ryan as a possible net minus for the Romney campaign for one reason: senior voters.

Older voters represent a key and often enthusiastic demographic for the GOP. Yet a recent poll by AARP reports that in the race is tied in the over 50 demographic. This suggests a fundamental problem for Romney. Adding a candidate to the Republican ticket who openly (and unambiguously) calls for a radical restructuring of Medicare and who has referred to Social Security as a "ponzi scheme," and senior voters may have reason to rethink the GOP team. A sharp diminution of support among senior voters (especially voters over 65, who are often the most reliable voters), could spell trouble for Romney-Ryan in the fall. Will Ryan's considerable gifts as a campaigner offset this potential problem? Stay tuned.

A new poll by AARP of voters over 50 reports that President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 45%
with the group. However, Obama gets just a 42% to 49% approval rating
among them. PollTrack notes, however, that in elections past, especially presidential cycles, this voter demographic (especially voters over the age of 60) has tended to trend Republican. A tie in this group--perhaps the result of voter perceptions that Romney may not support Social Security and Medicare as strongly as the president--actually suggests that the GOP challenger is not doing as well as he should among older voters. Stay tuned.

How effective is the Obama campaign's effort to paint GOP challenger Mitt Romney as out of touch with middle-class concerns? According to one poll, at least, the answer may be that these efforts may be suppressing Romney's numbers: the survey by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney, 49% to
42%, this despite the asserting of nearly two-thirds of respondents that "the country is
moving in the wrong direction." Reuters observes: "The results of the monthly poll - in which a majority of voters agreed
that the economy is the most important problem facing the United States -
suggest that the Obama campaign's efforts to paint Romney as being out
of touch with the concerns of middle-class Americans could be preventing
the Republican from gaining momentum in the race."

According to the latest Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News polls in selected key battleground states, President Obama now holds leads (just below or above the 50% mark) in Wisconsin and Virginia, and Mitt Romney is ahead at at 50% in Colorado:

According to Gallup, at this point in Election 2012, only 13-states give the president a net approval rating over 50%. Gallup observes: " A majority of residents in 13 states and the District of
Columbia approved of the job Barack Obama did as president during the
first six months of 2012. His highest ratings by state were in Hawaii
(63%) and Rhode Island (58%), in addition to the 83% approval from
District of Columbia residents. In 16 states, his approval rating
averaged below 40%, with residents of Utah, Wyoming, and Alaska least
approving." Of course, these numbers are to a great extent mitigated by the fact the Obama's GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, scores far lower in approval and far higher in disapproval than the president. Additionally, while Romney likeability numbers remain extremely low (the lowest of any major party candidate in years), the president's numbers remain over 50% (and are even higher in many of the swing states). Here is Gallup's chart:

In another indication that recent news cycles--and heavy advertising by Democrats--has hurt Mitt Romney in key sewing states, a new survey by Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Just as significantly, Obama breaks the all-important 50% mark in each state:

Despite Mitt Romney attempts to build support among traditionally Democratic Jewish voters--and his trip this week to Israel--a survey by Gallup reports that 68% of Jewish Americans support President Obama for re-eelction, while 25% support Mitt Romney.Thus American Jews remain one of the President's most stalwart group of supporters.

With just about every presidential cycle reporting a narrowing race in Pennsylvania, only to have the state go blue (it has done so reliably for the past twenty years), the question remains: what do polls suggesting a close race in the state mean. The latest Susquehanna Polling & Research survey in Pennsylvania, for example, has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by just three points, 46% to 43%. PollTrack's answer at this point is that the state remains Leaning Democrat. Stay tuned.

A new poll by We Ask America suggests that President Obama holds a modest but comfortable lead over Mitt Romney in the key swing state of Ohio, 48% to 40%. One factor that may be helping the president in Ohio: the state's unemployment numbers have improved in recent months.

According to latest NBC-WSJ poll, Mitt Romney's "overall favorable/unfavorable score remains a net negative -- a
trait no other modern presumptive GOP presidential nominee (whether Bob
Dole, George W. Bush or John McCain) has shared."This is one important reason that President Obama maintains a modest lead over his GOP rival, despite economic factors that tend to hurt the incumbent. With Obama's likeability hovering above the 50%, he has shown consistent strength over his opponent in most of the key battleground states.

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the
summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are 'more enthusiastic about voting
than usual' in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more
enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004." Will this enthusiasm gap hurt the President's reelection chances? The answer remains unclear at this point. Elections cycles see enthusiasm ebb and flow from one party to another, sometimes increasing as the election draws nears. A number of factors can in crease voter enthusiasm within a party, from the perception that the election is becoming very close to news events beyond the control of either party. Check back with PollTrack in September/October to see if Democratic interest increases in the election.

In another indication of just how close the presidential race may turn out to be--and at this point--a new NPR poll in 12 battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada,
New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia
and Wisconsin -- reports that President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46%
each.

For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout Election 2012, so check back often.

First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a
snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the
state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each
state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and
common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers
continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the
presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status.
Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks.
And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012
presidential race.

Here's a guide to each map:

Today's Map Today: This map
monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength
of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is
marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.

States
are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican
respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one
party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors,
including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call
into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and
information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling
may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground
reports and/or its stable voting history.

Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the
hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming
days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for
trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or
Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or
another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including
movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and
voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.

Election
Day Map Today: This map
forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win
Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors,
including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics
and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and
information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.
States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE:
calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map
will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.

According to Gallup, "Americans' view of the job Congress is doing is holding at roughly
the same level Gallup has found since April, with 16% approving and 78%
disapproving. This is slightly improved from the record low of 10% seen
in February and similar to the ratings in mid-2011, but below where it
stood at the start of that year." Here is Gallup's chart:

A new Purple Strategies poll conducted across four battleground states -- Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia --
finds President Obama leading Mitt
Romney by modest +2%, 47% to 45%. An earlier poll in June rracked an identical +2% lead.

According to a survey by We Ask America poll in New Mexico, President Obama holds a healty double-digit lead in the state, 51% to 40%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Safe Democratic.

According to a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Wisconsin finds President Obama now holds a modest +6% lead over Mitt Romney by six points, 50% to 44%. More important for the president: he is at the 50% mark, suggesting that the state may be difficult for the GOP this year (as it has been in the past seven presidential elections).

According to a recent survey by Gallup, "U.S. registered voters show limited support for third-party candidates
this year, with the vast majority preferring Barack Obama or Mitt
Romney." The survey poll "asked a special presidential preference
question, listing three third-party candidates in addition to Obama and
Romney. Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is the choice of
3% of registered voters and Green Party candidate Jill Stein the choice
of 1%. Another 2% volunteer Ron Paul's name and 1% mention someone other
than the listed candidates." In most instances, Gallup reports, this support was at the expense of Romney's candidacy.

Americans are sharply divided over last month's landmark Supreme Court decision
on the 2010 healthcare law, according to a survey by Gallup, "with 46% agreeing and 46% disagreeing with
the high court's ruling that the law is constitutional. Democrats widely
hail the ruling, most Republicans pan it, and independents are closely
divided." Here is Gallup's breakdown by party affiliation:

Two new polls out today report that President Obama continues to maintain a national lead over his GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Economist/YouGov shows Obama with a +4% national lead, 47% to 43%; Gallup tracking shows a similar lead for the president: 48% to 44%.

Will the Latino vote provide President Obama with the kind of cushion he needs to assure his reelection. A new Latino Decisions poll suggests that the answer may be yes. Obama is now significantly ahead of Mitt Romney among Latino voters in
the key swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. The survey reports that "In Florida, Obama is leading Romney by a margin of 53% to
37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a
January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the
five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in
southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama
performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney,
in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In
Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered
voters." These numbers suggest that the even ordinarily red state of Arizona could be in play this year.

A new poll by Bloomberg reports that a plurality of Americans-- 43%--believe that President
Obama's health care law should be retained "with only small modifications"; 15% say the
measure should be left alone; and 33% say it should be repealed.

A new survey by Quinnipiac reports that President Obama has retaken the lead in Florida from Mitt Romney. He now leads his GOP rival, 46% to 42%. PollTrack moves Florida on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call.

PollTrack has been tracking a modest uptick in national polling for President Obama. With a Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that Obama is hovering close to the all-important 50% mark. He now leads Mitt Romney, 49% to 45%

A new poll by Bloomberg reports that 64% of Americans support President Obama's decision to end the
deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as
children; 30% do not support the decision.

A poll by Rasmussen in Wisconsin reports that Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 47% to 44%. All other recent polls in the state continue to report leads for President Obama in the traditionally blue state, ranging from slight to comfortable.

After several polls showing the presidential race tightening in Michigan, a survey by Rasmussen (an organization with a slight GOP tilt in its polling) now reports that President Obama maintains a comfortable lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 50% to 42%. PollTrack continues to show Michigan on Today's Map as Leaning Democratic.

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that President Obama holds a +6% lead over Mitt Romney, 48% to 42%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

Three polls issued last week show the presidential race tied up nationally. Fox News reports a deadlock between President Obama and Mitt Romney at 43% each; a Monmouth poll shows a marginal lead for the President, at 47% to 46%; and a Gallup tracking poll gives Romney a slight lead, at 47% to 45%.

Did the Obama administration's bailout of the auto industry make Michigan safe for the Democrats? The answer, according to a new poll, may be no. A survey by EPIC-MRA in Michigan now shows Mitt Romney with a tiny lead over President Obama, 46% to 45%. The pollster notes that "the softening in support for Obama is likely related
to a robust TV advertising campaign by pro-Romney PACs which have been
critical of his handling of the economy. Perhaps most troubling for the
Democratic president is a decline in support from independent voters."

A new survey by the Kaiser Foundation reports that a clear majority of Americans believe that President Obama "would be better for women" than Mitt Romney on a host of issues. The poll reports that overall, on the question of "who looks out for the best interests of women, Obama leads 52-26%. Among women voters, it's 59-25%."

PollTrack has just upgraded Today's Map Today: with Ohio moving from Leaning Democrat to Too-Close-to-Call and Florida from Leaning GOP to Too-Close-Too-Call, two more key states have swung into the toss up category.

A poll by FM3 in New Mexico reports that President Obama now Mitt Romney by a huge 13% margin, 48% to 35%, with Libertarian candidate and former New
Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson at 12%. Significantly, in the tree man race, the President hovers near the all important 50% mark.

The US Senate race in Massachusetts--potentially one of the closest, most expensive, and hardest fought in the 2012 cycle--remains nearly deadlocked. A new poll by Suffolk University reports that the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown holds a razor thin lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, 48% to 47%. The survey's analysis continues: "Brown has fallen short of the coveted
50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some
undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice
but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the
five percent of voters who will decide this election."

Although the candidacy of former Sen. Bob Kerrey was seen as the Democrat's best hope of saving the seat now being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Rasmussen, in the first poll of Nebraska's U.S. Senate race after this week's GOP primary, finds GOP candidate Deb Fischer almost +20% ahead of Kerrey, 56% to 38%.

Although Tennessee has been a traditional red state in presidential elections (even when native son Al Gore ran in 2000), a new poll by Vanderbilt University poll reports that President Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the survey, Romney leads Obama by +1% among likely voters, 42% to 41%; however,
among registered voters, Romney has a considerably larger lead, 47% to 40%.

One significant political question in the wake of the President's endorsement of same-sex marriage is whether this support will translate into a shift in African American public opinion on the subject. A new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that the answer may be yes. The poll finds "a noticeable shift" in the attitudes of
African Americans toward rights for gay couples in the wake of President
Obama's announcement last week that he supports gay marriage. PPP continues: "our final poll before the primary last week found only 20%
of black voters in the state favoring gay marriage, with 63% opposed.
Now 27% express support for gay marriage with 59% opposed, for an
overall 11 point shift on the margin."

In presidential elections, long-term expectations of who will win are often more important than the actual polling distance between the candidates. By this measure, President Obama is well situated. According to a new survey by Gallup,
"56% of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012
presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win.
Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than
Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as
likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail."

Three just released national polls show mixed results in the presidential race. Two polls report a slightly Romney lead: Washington Times/JZ Analytics poll shows Mitt Romney just edging President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%. One from YouGov/Economist finds Romney ahead 46% to 42%. Another, from Fox News reports that Obama now leads Romney by seven points,
46% to 39%. Just three weeks ago the same poll showed the candidates were tied at 46%.

A new survey for Critical Insights in Maine reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +8%--50% to 42%--numbers that also show the president hovering at the 50% mark, an important indicator of his potential strength in the state.

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that 51% of Americans say they approve of President Obama's position that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry legal. 60% say, however,
that the president's shift in position will have no bearing on how they vote in the
November election.

In another sign of the president's improving prospects for reelection, a new survey by Bloomberg Global reports that investors around the world increasingly prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney in the presidential election, 49% to 38%. As recently as two months ago, the candidates were tied in the poll.

In a development that could complicate President Obama's reelection effort, "the number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply
since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an
election that could turn on the participation of minority voters," according to a story in the Washington Post. The Post continues: "Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but
this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of
registered Hispanics has dropped significantly."

Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign for picking up the traditionally Republican state of Arizona--and recent polls suggesting that the state might be competitive in the presidential election--a new survey by Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a considerable +9% lead over President Obama, 52% to 43%.

In another dramatic indication of the changing demographics of the American electorate, a new poll by the Washington Post in Virginia reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +7%--51% to 44%. The post analysis concludes that "Virginia voters are equally split on
Obama's major initiatives, including his signature health care reform
law, and remain deeply pessimistic about the way things are going in the
country. But the president has a key advantage in his bid for
reelection: The coalition of Virginians that propelled him to victory in
2008 -- young voters, suburban Washingtonians, women and African
Americans -- is largely intact."

A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's favorable rating--at 65%--is the
highest level of support reached by the former first lady in the history
of the poll. Just 27% of respondents viewed Clinton unfavorably.

Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.

Purple Poll surveys four key swing states and
finds an extremely close presidential race: President Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight
lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47%
to 47%. Romney holds a slight lead in Florida, 47% to 45%.

The latest survey from Fox News reports that if the presidential election were held now, the race would be tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each garnering 46%. Interesting, and perhaps one reason for the closeness of the race as reported by the Fox poll: a majority of Americans -- 61% for President Obama and 58% for
Mitt Romney -- believe that neither candidate has a plan to fix the economy.

Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.

A survey by Economist/YouGov suggests a major problem for Mitt Romney as he moves into the general election phase of his campaign: that he out of touch and does not care about people. The poll notes: "Obama does not really have that problem: 48% say Obama cares about
people like them, 52% say he does not. That's not a rip-roarin'
populist image, but it certainly surpasses Romney's scores: 38% say
Romney cares about people like them, 63% he does not."

In yet another example of relatively strong numbers for the president's reelection effort, a new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%. PPP notes: "The Republican nomination process has taken a huge toll on
Romney's image in North Carolina. In February of 2011 voters in the
state were almost evenly divided on him with 37% rating him favorably to
39% who had a negative opinion of him. Now that spread is a dreadful
29/58. His numbers with GOP voters are about where they've been, but
he's seen a considerable drop in his appeal to Democrats and
independents."

Despite the earlier urging of some GOP insiders, Chris Cristie declined to enter the Republican nomination race for president. A new poll, Rutgers-Eagleton reports that while the New Jersey governor's favorability rating show little change, 46% to 42%, voters are more likely to describe him as "stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago." Over the past six months, those who describe him as
"arrogant" increased by 15%. The terms "self-centered" and "bully" each
gained 11%, "stubborn" increased by 12% and "angry" by 11%.

Despite the make or break status of Pennsylvania for its former GOP Senator, Rick Santorum, a new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney now now leads Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. Last month, Romney was behind in the state, 25% to 42%.
Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6% points from 43% to 37%.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll in a dozen battleground states finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney, 51% to 42%. The survey finds that the "biggest change came among women under 50. In
mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more
than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14
points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group."The ten states surveyed were: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Rick
Santorumin tomorrow's Wisconsin GOP primary according to a new Rasmussen survey. The poll reports that Romney leads Santorum, 44% to 34%, with Newt
Gingrich and Ron Paul each at 7%.

A poll from ABC News-Washington Post reports that Mitt Romney now trails President Obama by 19% in popularity.
Just 34% hold a favorable opinion of Romney as compared to 53% for
Obama. In the poll, Romney's 50% unfavorable score is higher than
Obama ever has received.

In another sign that President Obama may have the edge in his reelection effort this fall, a new survey by Economist/YouGov reports that the President leads Mitt Romney among women by a considerable +17 points, 55% to 38%. Still, Romney edges Obama among men by 45% to 43%--a number not sufficient enough for the Republican to overtake Obama's lead among women.

A poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times in California reports that Mitt Romney holds a whopping +19% lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP
presidential race, at 42% to 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron
Paul at 10%.

Two Polls suggest a Romney victory in tomorrow's Illinois primary. We Ask America reports that Romney leads the race with 37%,
followed by Rick Santorum at 31%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at
8%. Rasmussen shows a wider advantage for Romney, who leads with 41%, followed by Santorum at 32%, Gingrich at 14% and Paul at 7%.

In the state with the second biggest pool of GOP delegates--Texas--the momentum appears to be shifting away from Mitt Romney. A newly released Wilson Perkins Allen survey reports that Rick Santorum now leads the 29 May Republican presidential contest with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron
Paul at 8%.

In an important indicator for the President--since, as PollTrack note, perception plays a big role in politics--a new Pew Research survey reports that 59% of American voters say that President Obama is likely to be re-elected if his opponent is Mitt Romney; between Obama and Rick Santorum, 68% anticipate an Obama victory.

According to a new survey by Rasmussen, "President Obama now holds a modest lead over Mitt Romney . . . in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North
Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied in the four states. Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. 6% prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and 6% are undecided."

Two new polls suggest conflicting outcomes in Mississippi's upcoming GOP primary: a poll by American Research Group shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential
primary with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 31%, Rick Santorum at 20%,
and Ron Paul at 7%. But Rasmussen repoorts a different result, with Romney leading at 35%, Santorum and Gingrich both at 27% and Paul way back at 6%.

A survey by Alabama State University reports that Newt Gingrich has jumped into the lead in Alabama's GOP presidential
race with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20% and Rick Santorum at 17%. Another, earlier, poll by Rasmussen shows a much closer race, with Newt
Gingrich at 30%, followed by Rick Santorum at 29%,
Mitt Romney at 28% and Ron Paul at 7%.

Here are polling updates from PollTrack on the upcoming GOP primary and causes race for tomorrow's Super Tuesday sweep.

Georgia: Landmark/Rosetta Stone shows a possible Newt Gingrich romp in the state, with the former house speaker way ahead of the GOP
presidential field in his home state with 42%, followed by Mitt Romney
at 22%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%. Interestingly, YouGov show a much closer race, with Gingrich at 32%, followed by Romney at 27%, Santorum at 17% and Paul at 10%

Massachusetts: According to YouGov, it's a Romney romp in the former governor's home state. Romney leads with 56%, followed by Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 5% and Paul at 5%.

Ohio: In the all important--and perhaps make or break race for Rick Santorum--in Ohio, a survey by NBC News/Marist reports that Santorumis just ahead of Romney among GOP primary
voters, 34% to 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at
13%.

Oklahoma: American Research Group reports that Santorum leads the GOP presidential field in
next week's primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Newt
Gingrich at 22%, and Ron Paul at 9%.

Tennessee: Rasmussen survey finds Santorum just ahead of Romney, 34% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 8%. Similarly, American Research Group shows Santorum leading Romney, 35% to 31%, with Gingrich at 20% and Paul at 9%.

Despite Gov. Christie's veto of a bill that would have made same-sex marriage legal in New Jersey, a new poll by Quinnipiac shows support in the state for gay marriage has climbed to an all-time high, 57% to 37%, a whopping +20% margin.

A survey by Vanderbilt University in Tennessee reports that Rick Santorum lead the GOP presidential
primary by a significant +16% margin over Mitt Romney, 33% to 17%,
followed by Ron Paul at 13% and Newt
Gingrich at 10%.

PollTrack's aggregate of polling in today's Michigan GOP presidential primary--four polls released on Monday are included--suggest a very close race, with Mitt Romney the very slight favorite over Rick Santorum. Our poll average in Michigan places Romney at 37.5% over Santorum, with 35.8% Both Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are far behind, with well under 15% each. Polling in the field last night, however, shows overnight momentum by Santorum. With a scant 1.5% lead in our aggregate, the race appears VERY close with the potential for a Santorum upset.

A just released survey from American Research Group reports that Mitt Romney maintains a slim lead in the Arizona GOP primary at 39%,
followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 11% and Ron Paul at
9%.

Two new polls out this morning show that Mitt Romney has regained the lead over Rick Santorum in the Michigan GOP primary. A poll by Mitchell/Rosetta Stone irepoorts that has Romney with a small lead over Santorum,, 36% to 33%, with Ron Paul at 12% and Newt
Gingrich at 9%. Another 11% are still undecided. And Rasmussen shows Romney leading Santorum by six points, 40% to 36%. According to the former survey, "Romney has made big inroads with
conservatives over the past ten days: 16% lead among Tea Party voters
has been erased and he is now tied with them; his 16% lead with
Evangelical Christians has now been cut in half to 8%, and Santorums 31%
lead with self-identified conservatives has now been cut to 13%."

In what may be a serious problem for GOP prospects in November, a new survey by Associated Press-GfK reports that interest in the Republican presidential race is on the wane: Just 40%
of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the
contest, compared with 48% in December. Just as ominous for the GOP, the poll finds that a mere 23% are "strongly satisfied" with the field and 40% said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running.

A new survey by We Ask America in Arizona reports that Mitt Romney is leading in next week's GOP presidential primary with
37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul
at 8%.

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican
candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama
by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to
44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt
Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

Who is leading in the Michigan GOP primary. Recent polling remain somewhat inconclusive. A new survey by American Research Group reports that Rick Santorum leads the state's GOP presidential
primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Ron Paul at 15% and
Newt Gingrich at 10%. Another poll, by Inside Michigan Politics, reports a much closer race, with Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied with 33% each, followed by Ron Paul at 7% and Newt
Gingrich at 5%. Stay tuned to PollTrack this week for the latest polling in what could be a make or break state for the two leading candidates.

As PollTrack noted yesterday, the tide appears to be turning in favor of the president's reelection. Two new polls, hypothetical matchups for the fall election, confirm this observation. A survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that President Obama bests all of his possible Republican rivals in GOP match ups: Obama leads Romney, 51% to 46%, tops Santorum, 52% to 45%, beats Paul, 52% to 45%, and crushes Gingrich, 55% to 42%.

A slew of new polls out over the weekend suggest the the race for the GOP nomination for president has a new frontrunner: Rick Santorum. PollTrack also notes that these national polls are also backed up by local state polls also showing Santorum in the lead, such as in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states where Romney had been leading as little as three weeks ago. On the natiional front, a just released survey by New York Times/CBS News reports that Santorum is surging among Republican primary voters nationwide,
"lifted by support among conservatives, evangelical Christians and Tea
Party supporters." In the poll, Santorum leads with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

A survey by Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV in Pennsylvania reports that Rick Santorum's support has more than doubled in
his home state, though its primary is more than two months away. Santorum now leads with 30% (six weeks ago he was at 14%), followed by Romney at 29% and Newt Gingrich at
13%.

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Mitt Romney holds a comfortable lead in the GOP primary race with 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Santorum at 15%
and Ron Paul at 15%. Since the poll was conducted before Romney lost contests in three states earlier this week, PollTrack will be following this race closely in the next few days.

A new poll by DailyKos/Public Policy Polling suggests a potential problem for the GOP in its quest to unseat President Obama: The poll finds that 58% of Democrats were "very excited" about voting in
this year's election, as compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months
ago, enthusiasm tilted towards Republicans, 54% to 48%.The Daily Kos observes: "Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election
gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for
the GOP."

With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Colorado finds Mitt Romney primed for another big win in today's caucuses. The poll reports that Romney is ahead of the pack with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 12%.

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Minnesota reports a very close race heading into Tuesday's caucuses. Rick Santorum bests Mitt Romney, by a mere +2%, 29% to 27%, with Newt Gingrich at 22% and Ron Paul at 19%.

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney is headed for a big victory in tomorrow's caucuses.
Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 50% to 25%, with Ron Paul at 15% and Rick
Santorum at 8%. PPP observes that "the bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a
distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him,
with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative
one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on
him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels."Nevertheless, Nevada does not have a direct primary, so polling may not accurately reflect the make up of tomorrow's participants. Still, PollTrack these numbers--consistent with other recent polls in the state--suggest a Romney win.

With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve
of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans
have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by
seven points, 49% to 42%.

A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of
November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying
Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But
Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has
risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."

PollTrack's analysis of half-dozen polls released over the past few days in the GOP presidential primary in Florida suggest a likely win for Mitt Romney. Romney's aggregate lead over his closes competitor, Newt Gingrich, as of Sunday evening is +11.3%--a considerable advantage, with Romney leading in all six polls (with margins ranging from +8% to +16%.

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages,
only Jimmy Carter's 37%
average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was
similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:

A survey by CNN-Time in Florida reports a slight lead for Mitt Romney, who now comes in at 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%. According to the poll, "Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters,
voters over 50, and those with a college degree... Gingrich holds leads
among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives -- among whom
he boasts a 10-point advantage -- and born-again Christians. His fans
also appear to be more committed than Romney's."

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Newt Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by five points in
the GOP presidential race, 38% to 33%, followed by Rick Santorum at 13%
and Ron Paul at 10%. Significantly, Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted
in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points.

Good news for President Obama: according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, the President leads Mitt Romney in a general election match, at 49% to 44% nationally. This is Obama's best showing in months, an increase in support due, in part, to the steep decline of Romney's favorable rating, with only 35% rating him favorably while
53% have a negative opinion of him.

A new survey by Sunshine State News in Florida reports that Mitt Romney leads by a very wide margin in the upcoming primary for the GOP presidential nomination. According to the poll, Romney leads with 46%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%. Similarly,. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state shows Romney in the lead at 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 26%, Rick Santorum at 11%,
Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out
the field.

Two new polls show Mitt Romney pull way from the pack in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. A survey from Fox News reports that Romney leads with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt
Gingrich at 14%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at
5%. Gallup daily tracking similarly reports that Romney is at 37%, Santorum at 14%, Gingrich at 13%, Paul at 12%, Perry at 5% and Hunstman at 3%.

Even if the South Carolina proves to be close--or even if current frontrunner Mitt Romney loses--a new Rasmussen survey in Florida suggests that Florida may contribute to his overall standing as GOP nomination leader. According to the poll, Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Ron Paul at 9% and Jon Hunstman at 5%.

As of Tuesday--and therefore before the results of the New Hampshire primary--Mitt Romney continues to hold a very modest lead in South Carolina, according to two polls: A survey by We Ask America reports that Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field
with 26%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Ron
Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 5% and John Hunstman at 4%. Another 22% are
still undecided. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney at 27%, Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 18%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7% and Jon
Huntsman at 4%.

A survey by Quinnipiac in Florida reports that Mitt Romney is now leading the GOP presidential race with
36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at
10%, Rick Perry at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. With more than half of all voters saying they could still change their mind, the race may still be fluid.

Polling in recent days has shown surprising strength for Mitt Romney in the relative conservative state of South Carolina. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney holds a modest lead, with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum
at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy
Roemer at 1%.

With a slew of new polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack wonders by how much and who will be his closest challenger. A new poll from Public Policy Polling reports that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the Republican presidential
race with 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Newt
Gingrich at 12%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Buddy Roemer at 3% and Rick Perry
at 1%. A new survey by WMUR/UNH reports an even great for Romney, with 41%, followed by Paul at 17%, Huntsman at
11%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Rick Perry at 1% and Buddy Roemer
at 1%. But a Suffolk University tracking poll, released over the weekend, shows Mitt Romney's support dipping for the fourth day in a row. By Sunday, for example, Romney dropped another 4 points overnight to 35%, followed by Ron Paul
at 20%, Jon Hunstman at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%
and Rick Perry at 1%. Another 15% remain undecided.

With some polls showing Huntsman gaining momentum (but Santorum loosing steam), the race could end with a closer result than a simple Romney walk. New Hampshire is known for its surprises: Hillary Clinton won the primary in 2008, although Barack Obama came into election day with a lead in virtually every poll. While PollTrack still believes Romney--thus moving him considerably closer to the nomination--will win the New Hampshire Primary, the depth and intensity of his win remains uncertain.

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one by Suffolk University, reports that Mitt
Romney holds a huge lead, now at 41%, in the GOP presidential primary, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Rick
Santorum at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry
at 1%.

A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie
in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20
percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent
and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by
Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry
at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick
Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele
Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the
final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to
second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains
the same, at 24%."

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama
continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most
Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the
Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the
Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama,
Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired
women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush,
Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart:

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt
Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick
Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at
2%.

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican
voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick
Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon
Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with
21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%,
Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron
Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%,
Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon
Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul
with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick
Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%,
Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon
Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul
at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6%
and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our
Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt
Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and
Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his
faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay
rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney
and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers,
is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to
several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at
12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and
Jon Huntsman at 2%.

PollTrack has made changes to both the "Today" and "Election Day" presidential maps that reflect somewhat improving numbers for President Obama in several key battleground states--numbers helped by the muddled and uncertain GOP field. In "Today's Map," the president has pulled even with the GOP in terms of relative electoral strength across the 50 states and DC. Similarly, "Election Day's Map" shows the president in a near tie with a generic GOP candidate, with more than 80-electoral votes projected to be too-close-too-call on Election Day 2012.

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is
worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP
field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while
14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains
the same.

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%,
followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and
the rest of the field in single digits.

A poll by Pew Research reports that the Tea Party, since the 2010 midterm elections, "has not
only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts
represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus." The survey concludes: "More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%)
with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP
gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the
opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party." Although this decline may have an effect on the general election next fall, PollTrack believes that Tea Party influence will still effect the GOP primaries, where a smaller number of voters overall intensify the power of the waning, but still active party.

A survey by Poll Position reports that Newt Gingrich's national lead has widened. He tops the GOP presidential field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 7%,
Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Perry at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick
Santorum at 2%. As PollTrack predicted last week, Gingrich appears to be benefiting from the defection of conservative candidates, such as Herman Cain. Stay tuned.

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP
presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney
at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the
potential to grow . . . More respondents choose
Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43%
of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at
17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick
Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job
approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern
political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential
field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron
Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at
2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the
voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen
apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than
that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move
toward Newt as well."

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they
know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding
lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the
six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Another poll, this one from Majority Opinion Research reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 23%. In the poll, Herman
Cain comes in at 14%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon
Huntsman 3%, "someone else" at 4%, and no opinion at 11%.

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP
presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%,
while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to
41%.

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at
9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and
Michele Bachmann 1%.

Another poll, this one by Reuters/Ipsos, reports that Newt Gingrich now leads the Republican presidential field
nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12%
and Rick Perry at 10%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman
at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with
32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul
at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally
with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at
19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at
6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and
Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with
23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential
rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.
All the other candidates are below 10%.

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at
15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%.
In another key state, South Carolina,
Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry
at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential
field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and
October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents'
preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when
independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin.
The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were
earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly
matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a
generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political
volatility to come over the next 12 months."

In what bodes as a potential problem for Democrats overall in next year's federal election, a new survey by Gallup reports that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election. On
the national level, 56% of registered GOP voters and 48% of
Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12
key swing states, the Republican advantage is even greater: 59% to 48%.

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among
Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

A poll by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama's approval rating is up slightly, now at 49%, with disapproval at 50%. PollTrack's aggregate numbers alas show slight improvement: with his approval rating at 46% (up from 44% last month) and a disapproval number at 50.8%.

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at
8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon
Huntsman at 1%.

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%,
followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt
Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney,
48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Herman Cain, 38% to 26%, in the GOP nomination context, with Newt Gingrich in third at 16%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Santorum at 1% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate
amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country
currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President
George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for
the economy.

A survey by AP-GfK reports that 50% of Americans believe that President Obama does not deserve re-election. Still, Obama runs about even or slightly ahead of all three men in hypothetical matchups with possible GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, or Rick Perry.

A survey by AP-GfK reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%,
followed by Herman Cain at 26%, Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt
Gingrich at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick
Santorum at 2%.

In another important early voting state, Nevada, Mitt Romney now leads the GOP field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Rick Perry at 12%. According to the survey by Project New West, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele
Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in Iowa reports that Herman Cain holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney, 26%, followed to 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 10% and
Rick Perry at 6%.

In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for
reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is
55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.

A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real
progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real
progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration,
followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama
administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell.

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential
primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is
third at 15%.

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for
5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary
Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa
with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at
9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at
5%.

A survey by Washington Post/Bloomberg national reports that Mitt Romney now leads Herman Cain among likely Republican voters, 24% to 16%, with Rick Perry in third at 13%. All other candidates are in the single digits, except Jon Huntsman, who gets zero support.

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%,
Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt
Gingrich at 4%.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of those surveyed believe President Obama will not be reelected next year, while 37% say he'll win. This kind of pessimism about a president's reelection prospects can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy, both spurring on GOP support and dispiriting Democrats, whose lack of enthusiasm may result in lower voter turn out.

A new War Room Logistics (R) survey in Florida reports that Rick Perry's numbers in the state have taken a -16% nose dive. The poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field
with 28% among likely voters, followed by Herman Cain at 24%, Newt
Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%. PollTrack believes that the key number here is not Romney's or Perry's, but Cain who is now a close second, after winning the Florida Straw Poll last week. Cain's strong showing here--and his uptick nationally--could suggest that he is becoming a real contender in the GOP presidential nomination race.

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%,
followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at
12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

A survey by Fox News poll reports a significant drop in support for Rick Perry nationally among GOP voters. Mitt Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%. Within the past 30-days, Romney is up by +1%, Perry is down -10% and Cain is up +6%. In the Fox poll, Newt Gingrich comes in at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that Rick Perry continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Perry is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Newt Gingrich at
11%, Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick
Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. In general election match ups, however, Romney fares best against President
Obama, trailing by just one point, 49% to 48%; Obama holds a five point
lead over Perry, 51% to 46%.

What do Democratic and GOP insiders in Florida think of the GOP field and its chances against a sitting Democratic president? A new survey by St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider--which polled campaign consultants, lobbyists, activists --reports that
two thirds of Democrats and two thirds of Republicans think Mitt Romney
is a stronger general election candidate than Rick Perry. In the end, 50% of the Republican believe Romney will win the GOP primary in Florida next year, while 41% predicted Perry.

A survey by Florida Times-Union/Insider Advantage in Florida reports that Rick Perry now leads Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential
primary race by nine points, 29% to 20%. All other candidates are in the
single digits.

With his approval rating fairly low in Pennsylvania, it can only be seen as good news for President Obama that in a just released Magellan Strategies survey in Pennsylvania finds President Obama he now holds a comfortable lead pover potential Republican
challengers Mitt Romney by 50% to 40%, and Rick Perry by 52% to 37%. PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democratic."

According to a new survey by CBS News/New York Times poll, Rick Perry continues to lead Mitt Romney nationally in the GOP presidential race, 23% to 16%. well behind, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 7%,
Herman Cain at 5%, Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, Rick Santorum at
1%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney
nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele
Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum
both at 2%.

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination
at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah
Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%
and Herman Cain at 5%.

Tomorrow's special election in New York's 9th congressional district,
for the seat vacated by Rep. Anthony Weiner who resigned earlier this
year, a new Siena poll reports that the Republican candidate, Robert Turner, now holds a six
point lead over David Weprin, 50% to 44%. If Turner should win in this
vastly Democratic district, Weprin's loss may hold real implications for next year's election cycle. Anecdotal reporting suggests that some Democrats, upset with the Obama administration, may intend to send a message to the president by voting for Turner. The problem for the Democrats: if the heavily Democratic, New York district tips into the Republican column, then far closer swing states, such as Florida, Ohio, and even Pennsylvania--Obama's approval in the three states is somewhere in the mid to high 30s--are undoubtedly in play. The president's approval numbers at this point remain problematic. Two previous incumbents with relatively low numbers in their third year, but who went on to win reelection--Reagan and Clinton--were at this point in their presidency recovering politically, each nearing the 50% mark. Obama's present approval number averages 44%, far below the 48% thought to be a good marker of potential reelection. Stay tuned.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Rick Perry leads Mitt Romney by five points, 29% to 24%, in on e of the first states to vote in the 2012 contest for the GOP nomination. The rest of the field trails, with Herman Cain at 7%,
Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Rick
Santorum and Jon Huntsman at 1% each. 19% are undecided.

In numbers that may well bode poorly for the President, a new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that his approval rating in the state is just 34%. Since PA is key presidential battleground state, it will be imperative for the Democrat to improve his standing in a state that has gone with the Democrat in every election since 1992.

A survey by Muhlenberg College poll suggests that President Obama's reelection effort may be in trouble in Pennsylvania. His approval rate has dropped to 35% in the key swing state. The poll's analysis concludes that there may be room for movement in the poll: "31% of
Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the
Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous
GOP contender 36 percent to 31%." Nevertheless, with the incumbent polling well below that 48% to 50% threshold, the numbers suggest a difficult race for Obama in 2012.

In what has very serious implications for President Obama's reelection chances, a new survey by Public Policy Polling survey reports a considerable ebb of Democratic enthusiasm about voting in next year's election. Just 48% of Democrats--a new low--say they were "very
excited" about voting in 2012. In 13 previous polls, the average level
was 57%. It had risen as high as 65% (during the 2008 presidential election) and only twice had the number dropped below 55%.

In what is clearly good news for the President's reelection chances, a survey by CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Obama's Democratic base remains overwhelmingly behind him. 70% of Democrats now say that they would like to see Obama as their party's presidential nominee next
year.

A survey by Gallup (of registered voters) reports that President Obama may be headed for a very tight reelection effort. Mitt Romney leads Obama, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at
47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul, 47% to 45%, and tops Michele
Bachmann, 48% to 44%.

In a stunning realignment of the GOP presidential field, two new polls now show Texas Governor Rick Perry overtaking Mitt Romney as frontrunner. A survey by Gallup reports that Perry now leads the pack with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at
13% and Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other contenders are below 5% in
support. And a new Public Policy Polling survey has Perry at 33%, Romney at 20%, Bachmann at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Iowa reports that Rick Perry now leads the GOP presidential nomination field with 22%, followed by
Mitt Romney at 19%, Michele Bachmann at 18%, Ron Paul at 16%. Herman Cain polls 7%; Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are at 5%; and
Jon Huntsman at 3%.

A survey by McLaughlin & Associates in Florida reports that Mitt Romney maintains a double-digit lead over the rest of
the GOP presidential field: the former Massachusetts Governor comes in at 27%, followed by Rick Perry at 16%, and
Michele Bachmann at 10%. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain trial at 5% each.

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at
15%.

A survey by Magellan poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary pack with 36%, followed by Rick Perry at 18%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep.
Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other candidates are at 3% or less.

A survey by McClatchy-Marist reports that Americans are evenly divided over the question of whether President Obama deserves
re-election: 40% say they will definitely vote for the president
next year;
40% say they will not. The remaining 20% are
unsure. Still, the poll detects an inherent edge for the president: when matched against specific Republican challengers Obama edges out every one, a possible indication of the weakness of the GOP field as well as the general likeability of the president.

According to Sunday's presidential approval tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his presidency, and the first time it has dipped below 40%. Obama now stands at 39% approval, while a significant 54% of voters disapprove of his job performance.

In yet another sign that the road to reelection may be moe difficult than expected for President Obama, a new Quinnipiac poll in the key swing state of Florida reports that the president's job approval rating is a negative
44% to 51%. Florida voters also say by a 50% to 42% margin that the
president does not deserve to be reelected. Nevertheless, with weak Republican opposition, the president manages to best two of all potential candidates and ties another:Mitt Romney is dead even with Obama at 44%; the president has double-digit leads over other top Republicans, except
for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44% to 39%.

A just released Gallup Poll reports that Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with
24. He is followed by Rick Perry at 17%, Rep. Ron Paul at
14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 13%. All other GOP contenders are at single digits in the survey.

A new national poll reports that President Obama's advantage "over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months. Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the
president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a
Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May,
the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent." The survey, by Pew, suggests "independent voters are driving this drop. In
May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35
percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31
percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39
percent want to replace him with a Republican."

While there may be no real winners in the just concluded Deficit/Debt Ceiling negotiations, a new Gallup poll reports that "Americans are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is
handling the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling than they
are to approve of the handling of the situation by Speaker of the House
John Boehner or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, although opinions
about all three are more negative than positive." Here is Gallup's chart:

It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days

In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.

A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at
12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim
Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican
primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele
Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry
both at 6%,

A Gallup survey of registered voters reports that they are "more likely
to vote for the Republican Party's candidate for president" than for
President Obama in next year's election. The generic GOP candidate leads by a significant margin: 47% to 39%. Early surveys this year have indicated a much more evenly divided electorate.

According to the most recent analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June,
down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through
April. Obama's strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults
aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics
(52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as
well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here). Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%),
and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of
Obama. PollTrack believes that the president average approval rating of 46% places him below the threshold for likely reelection. We will be watching these numbers closely as we move into the 2012 cycle.

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees
with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain
at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with
32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick
Santorum at 6%.

With Pennsylvania a must win for any Democratic candidate for president, it looks as if President Obama's reelection could be in jeopardy. A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania reports that the state is "looking more and more like it could be a tough hold" for the Democrats in 2012. PPP continues: "[Obama's] approval rating in the state continues to be under water at
46/48... Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in
places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico,
all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted
Democratic. The President's persistently poor numbers in a state that's
gone Democratic in every Presidential election for the last 24 years
probably make Pennsylvania the place where Obama should be most
concerned about his current standing."

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and
Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum
at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

In what amounts to another warning sign for incumbents in the 2012 cycle, a new Time/Aspen Ideas Festival poll reports that a whopping 71% of Americans, including a majority of every major demographic
group other than African Americans, see the United States as worse off
now than it was a decade ago.

While many in the GOP are urging NJ Governor Chris Christie to run for the 2012 nomination for president, he remains relatively unpopular in his home state. A Bloomberg New Jersey poll reports that 51% of New Jersey
residents say they wouldn't support Gov. Chris Christie for a
second term, "disapproving of his choices on a range of policy
and personal issues, from killing a commuter tunnel to using a
state-police helicopter to attend his son's baseball game."

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP
presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah
Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John
Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the
back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of
that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying
for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by
Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick
Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and
Herman Cain at 2%.

A Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president with 18%,
followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at
10%, Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 7% and Herman Cain at 5%. The remaining candidates get less than 5% combined of the vote.

Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney
leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%,
Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty
at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

A New York Times/CBS News poll reports that GOP voters are not at all enthusiastic for the pack of 2012 contenders for the Republican nomination for president: 70% of GOP voters now express dissatisfaction with their candidates and wish they had more choices. Even the presumptive frontrunners--Mitt
Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann--could muster the enthusiasm of no more than 7% of Republican voters apiece.

A Pew Research poll reports that "the public's economic optimism is now at its lowest point since July 2008, shortly before the financial crisis." According to the survey, 29% of respondents expect that economic conditions will be
better a year from now; 23% say things will be worse. Last
October, a considerable plurality of respondents said the economy would be better,
rather than worse, in a year (35% vs. 16%).

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican
caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and
Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon
Huntsman at 2%.

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that
in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire,
Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin --
the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

In what may become a looming problem for President Obama in his 2012 reelection effort, a new Gallup survey reports that Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the country
fell to just 20%; 78% of Americans are now dissatisfied with the nation's direction.

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his
2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving
the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his
challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's
leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll,
earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't
even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term:
former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska
Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field,
Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over
Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a substantial lead over all potential GOP primary
challengers with 42%: Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Michelle
Bachmann are tied at 10%, Sarah Palin comes in at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 6% and Tim Pawlenty
at 5%.

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%,
Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and
Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up, 45% said they would probably vote to
re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate.
Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

In a good sign for Democrats, party affiliation has grown in recent months comparable to the GOP. A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Americans identified as Democrats last month as compared to 39% who identified as Republicans.

A new poll reports that President Obama is struggling in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania: "It's no secret that President Obama is on the down-slope politically, and that includes the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. A new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research says that 48% of
Pennsylvanians disapprove of Obama's performance, while 41% approve. Also:
Only 43% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say Obama has done well
enough to deserve re-election, the poll said; 50% say 'it is time to
give a new person a chance.'"

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White
House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he
shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann
Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who
think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for
reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

A National Journal survey of Democratic insiders reports that Mitt Romney is seen as the biggest threat
to President Obama by 27%, followed closely by Jon Huntsman at 25%, Tim
Pawlenty at 20%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Rick Perry at 5%.

Public Policy Polling national survey of the strength of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination reports that with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump out of the race, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are now leading the pack with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty is at 13%, Herman Cain at 12% and Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul at 9%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field
with 21%; Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are each at at 15%; Newt Gingrich
at 12%; Michele Bachman at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 10%;and Ron Paul at 8%.

The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved
significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive
of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say
Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is
largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39%
to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."

Can Wisconsin Democrats save the US Senate seat being vacated in 2012 with the retirement of Herb Kohl? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin suggests that one strong Democratic candidate may be former US Sen. Russ Feingold, defeated in late year's GOP wipe-out. In hypothetical match ups, Feingold leads Tommy Thompson (R), 52% to
42%, Mark Neumann (R), 53% to 41%, JB Van Hollen (R), 53% to 38%, and
Jeff Fitzgerald (R), 54% to 39%.

A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the
Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%,
Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of
Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last
year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after
the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House
leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view
Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012
election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given
that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves
re-election."

An Associated Press-GfK poll reports that 45% of Republicans remain dissatisfied with the field of declared GOP
presidential candidates as well as those believed to be serious
about running. This represents a 12% gain from one month ago. Just 41% are satisfied with these candidates, down from 52%.

In a hint of the priorities of GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses for the 2012 nomination for president, a Gallup survey reports that "given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are
the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and
now on par with the percentage who say the same about government
spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and
moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top
political priorities." Here is Gallup's chart:

If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out
with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake,
48% to 41%.

A just released Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney is now in the lead among GOP voters for the 2012 nomination: Romney comes in at 19%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%,
Sarah Palin at 9%, Trump at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Ron Paul at 7%.

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mike Huckabee now leads in another key early primary state for the 2012 GOP nomination. Huckabe comes in at with 20%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 18%.
Donald Trump at 13% and Sarah Palin at 10%.

A new McClatchy-Marist Poll suggests that President Obama remains vulnerable in his reelection effort. The survey reports that 44% of American voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama next year; 37% definitely plan to vote for him; and 18%
are unsure. Still, the President bests all Republican challengers in the poll's hypothetical match ups: Mitt Romney does best against Obama, but still
trails, 46% to 45%, while Mike Huckabee trails by 48% to 43%.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee is way ahead in the 2012 GOP nomination race for president. Huckabee leads with 27%, followed by
Mitt Romney at 16%, Donald Trump at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Sarah
Palin at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at
5%.

According to Public Policy Polling, Donald Trump now leads the GOP pack for the 2012 GOP nomination for president, with
26%; Mike Huckabee follows with 17%, Mitt Romney at 15%, Newt Gingrich
at 11%, Sarah Palin at 8% and Ron Paul at 5%.

Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris
Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential
candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22%
unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12%
unfavorable."

In a troubling sign for the administration, a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll suggests that President Obama is in a poor position for retaking Florida in his 2012 reellction bid. Right now, only 34% of independent voters in Florida approve of
Obama's job performance. Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee
would now defeat the president in Florida if the election were held today.

A new Fox News poll show a closely matched GOP field for the 2012 nomination, with no potential Republican presidential candidate breaking out of a crowded field. Mike Huckabee is ahead with 15%; Mitt Romney is at 14%; Sarah
Palin at 12% and Donald Trump at 11%. Other candidates remain the the single digits.

According to Gallup, "With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for
re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes
even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates -- Mike
Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich -- are currently best situated
among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup
Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known,
but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less
well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and
Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores." Here is Gallup's chart

A just released Neighborhood Research poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus-goers reports that Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack with 21%,
followed by Mitt Romney at 14%, Donald Trump at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 8%,
Sarah Palin at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 5% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential nomination race with 21%, followed
by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee both at 17%. Newt Gingrich was in
fourth place with 11%, followed by Sarah Palin at 10% and Tim Pawlenty
at 6%.

Despite the state's overwhelming Democratic tilt, Massachusetts continues to support incumbent GOP U.S. Senator Scott Brown. An internal Democratic poll suggests his popularity is on the rise: "The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was
detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73% -- easily
surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top
Democrats, Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him
running over the magic 50% mark against every potential Democratic
challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps.
Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by
double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were
primed with negative information about Brown."

According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional
Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage,
other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17 states
where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population,
including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the
population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good
news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash
against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls
indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in
the 2008 election."

In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters
say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell.

A new Gallup survey reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead in the race for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination with 19%; he is followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Sarah Palin at 12%
and Newt Gingrich at 10%. According to Gallup, if "Huckabee were not a candidate, most of his support would go to the
top three remaining candidates. Romney and Palin would essentially tie
for the lead, at 19% and 17%, respectively, with Gingrich getting a bump
in support to 13%."

According to a just released Daily Caller/ConservativeHome poll, a tiny plurality of Republicans--15%-- would like to see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as
their presidential candidate in 2012. However, 27% expect Mitt Romney to win the nomination.

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt
Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%,
Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by
a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in
gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49%
from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten
point dive to 37%.

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary
rivals.
Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah
Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at
5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just
38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group
of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At
the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18
other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:

Does the GOP hold an innate advantage in 2012 national races--including the president's reelection? The answer may now be yes, after several cycles of Democratic dominance. Gallup reports that between 2008 and 2010, the number of states that are
lean-Democratic or strongly Democratic has decreased by more than half,
from 30 to 14. Conversely, the number of lean-Republican and strongly Republican
states has increased considerably, up from five to 10. And the number
of so-called purple--or closely competitive states--has almost doubled, going from 10 to 18.

A just released Newsweek/Daily Beast poll reports that Mike Huckabee is tied with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 presidential match up, 46% to 46%. In other match ups, Obama edges Mitt Romney, 49% to 47%, beats Donald Trump, 43% to 40%, and tops Sarah Palin, 51% to 40%.

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama runs dead even in a re-election match up against a generic Republican, 47% to 47%. But when things get specific, the President's numbers improve considerably: he leads all of the named candidates in the poll,
with a 3% advantage over Mike Huckabee, a 5% lead over Mitt Romney,
a 9% lead over Newt Gingrich, and a whopping 12% advantage one over Sarah Palin.

A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama
next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.

With calls for President George W. Brush's brother Jeb to throw his hat into the ring for the 2012 presidential election cycle, a key question remains: How strong a candidate would he make. A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads Bush 54% to 34% in the poll, poor numbers indded for the former Florida governor.

A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads all Republican challengers in hypothetical match ups for his 2012 reelection bid, by at least seven points. He leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 41%, beats Mike Huckabee, 49% to 41%, tops
Sarah Palin, 56% to 35%, and is ahead of Newt Gingrich, 55% to 35%.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey offers an early look at potential 2012 match-ups,reporting that "Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even
with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to
42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece. Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich
and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to
38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%"

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead Republican presidential hopefuls nationally
with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, Newt
Gingrich at 10% and Ron Paul at 7%.

Nate Silver offers an interesting analysis of the 2012 GOP presidential field, exploring their status as insider vs. outsider and moderate vs. conservatives. Silver writes: "One dimension is obvious: we can classify the candidates from left to
right, from relatively more moderate to relatively more conservative.
But another dimension that is often salient in the primaries, and
perhaps especially so for Republicans next year, is what we might think
of as the insider/outsider axis: whether the candidate is viewed as part
of the Republican establishment, or as a critic of it."

An analysis by Politico suggests that the GOP may have an inherent advantage in the 2012 US Senate races, and may well be poised to take over from the Democrats: "Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in
2012, giving Republicans their first-choice candidate for the race and
putting yet another incumbent in serious jeopardy. . . . [An] Opinion
Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent
backing Rehberg compared to 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent
undecided . . . Rehberg’s announcement will mean
Republicans have high-profile, formally announced challengers in four
states where Democrats are up for reelection: Montana, Missouri (former
state Treasurer Sarah Steelman), Nebraska (state Attorney General Jon
Bruning) and Virginia (former Sen. George Allen). That’s not to mention
the open Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Kent
Conrad’s retirement gives Republicans a strong pickup opportunity, and
Florida, where several solid candidates are circling the race against
Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Some of these candidates are facing
competitive primaries, but the big picture is this: Senate Republicans
have already put a sizable list of Democratic seats in play and they
only need to net four to hit the 51-seat mark."

Strategic National commissioned two polls
of the Republican presidential race in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here are the results: In Iowa,
Mike Huckabee leads by at 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 12%, Newt
Gingrich at 12%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 4%. In New Hampshire, it is Mitt Romney who leads at 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Sarah Palin at 13%, Newt Gingrich at 9% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

President Obama's aggregate approval rating surging dramatically in recent days, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the president in his best position against the major Republican contenders since 2009. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee each trail the president by +5%; Newt Gingrich trails by 12%
and Sarah Palin by a whopping 17%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Mike Huckabee is the clear leader for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. Huckabee leads with 24%; Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are tied at 14%;
Newt Gingrich at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 8%; and Ron Paul at 7%. PPP writes: "[Huckabee's] ahead with both moderates and conservatives, showing
an ability to unify two wings of the party that have become increasingly
polarized from each other with the rise of the Tea Party movement.
That's important not just for snagging the nomination but also for
Republican prospects of winning the general -- they can't do it without a
candidate who is able to hold the entire base in line."

If Mitt Romney is way ahead in the New Hampshire primary, a Neighborhood Research poll in Iowa tells a different story: Mike Huckabee leading the GOP presidential field in the
crucial first voting state (though a caucus unlike NH) with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%,
Sarah Palin at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa also reports that Mike Huckabee is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Sarah Palin at 15% and Newt
Gingrich at 13%.

How does the GOP field for the 2012 presidential contest look in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary next year? A new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead with 39%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16% and Mike Huckabee at 10%. How significant are these numbers? As Dave Weigel notes, Romney is "the only 2012 candidate with any geographic claim
to New Hampshire" so "anything less than a monster win makes him look a
lot like Muskie."

A just released survey from CNN/Opinion Research reports that 78% of Democrats would like to see President Obama renominated for a second term. Hovering nearly 80%, this number the highest the President's support among Democrats support has been all year.

Right now, president Obama would win the Democratic primary handily against hypothetical Democratic challengers. A according to a new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire, the President Obama is well positioned in the unlikely
event he's challenged in a Democratic presidential primary. He beats Hillary Clinton by 31 points--59% to 28%, and bests Howard Dean by 68 points--78% to 10%.

An analysis of yesterday's polling from Marist University by Nate Silver suggests the erosion of support among Democrats and liberals could--the operative word is could--have an adverse effect on President's Obama's reelection chances. Silver observes: "A new poll from Marist University is suggestive of a potential worst-case scenario
for President Obama. As he endures criticism from his left over his
handling of the tax policy debate with Republicans, his approval rating
has declined among liberals, according to the poll: 69% of them
now approve of his job performance as compared with 78% in
November. Likewise, his approval rating has declined among Democrats: to
74% from 83%. However, there has been no comparable
improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents. . . . " For the full analysis, click here.

This analysis from Jeff Madrick via Frank Rich via, in The New York Times, should make the Democrats worry, re: the President's reelection chances in 2012: "As the economics commentator
Jeff Madrick wrote in The Huffington Post,
the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent only four times in a
presidential election year since World War II — and in three of the
four the incumbent lost (Ford, Carter, the first Bush). Reagan did win
in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, but the rate was
falling rapidly (from a high of 10.8 two years earlier) . . . But as Madrick adds, there has never been a sitting president over that
period who has had to run with an unemployment rate as high as 8 percent
— which is precisely where the Fed’s most recent forecasts predict the rate could be mired when Obama faces the voters again in
2012."

With its treasure trove of 55 winner take all Electoral Votes, California is important to President Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. A new analysis, suggests that the Democrats are well positioned in the state. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that California voters, by a wide margin, are reluctant to support GOP candidates. "Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said
they would never cast a ballot for a Republican," the survey reports. "Among Latinos, that
rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as
emphatically anti-Democrat . . . The negative overlay both explained and helped determine the fates of
the party's candidates in November. As a GOP tide swept the nation,
Republicans here lost all statewide offices, with one contest, for
attorney general, still unresolved but leaning toward the Democrat.
Republicans here also failed to gain any congressional seats and lost a
legislative seat."

Wondering how the congressional map will look in 2012 after the restricting of congressional districts that will begin next year? In his preview of the upcoming reapportionment of congressional districts, Sean Trende notes that the just concluded midterms, which saw a number of state houses turn towards the Republican, may indeed bode poorly for the Democrats: "As bad as 2010 was for House Democrats, 2012 could be even worse.
Republicans don't have a lot of exposure, since most of their gains were
in red territory. More importantly, Republicans will control more
seats in redistricting than they have since the states began regular
decennial redistricting in 1972."

Using census estimates of where population is growing and falling within states, Trende "offers his thoughts on how redistricting will most likely shape things
in 2012." His analysis is fascinating and insightful--a window onto the upcoming reconfiguration of congressional districts. For more, click here.

Where does President Obama stand in his reelection bid? How does he stack up against a generic Republican candidate. A new Politico poll reports that while Obama trailing a generic Republican opponent for
reelection, 40% to 37%, he comes out at least 6% points ahead when
matched up with likely Republican contenders Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney,
Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour. Like GOP loses in US Senate races with unpopular incumbents--like Nevada and Colorado--Obama's ability to overtake specific GOP candidates suggests that the president's relative popularity will be no more important than the relative popularity of GOP candidates in determine who will come out ahead in 2012. Stay tuned.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Sarah Palin is the most divisive of the potential 2012
Republican presidential candidates; public perceptions of Mike Huckabee
and Mitt Romney are more positive. 46% of Americans see Palin as favorable; 49% as unfavorable. Huckabee has the highest favorability rating at 49%; 27% view him unfavorably. Romney has a 46%
favorabliy rating, while 31% view him unfavorably.

In the coming weeks, PollTrack will introduce an innovative map devoted to tracking Election 2012, specifically the relative state of the incumbent Democratic president and a generic Republican challenger in their state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Two years out, PollTrack will test the mood of all 50 states (and DC), gauging the mood of the country, its regions, and states as the current president nears his bid for reelection.

WRITING ON THE WALL will continue to report on statewide trends for local and national political figures, taking a look at upcoming local races in 2011, and their implications for the upcoming national cycle in 2012.

PRESIDENTIAL: In addition to our innovating tracking of the 2012 Election, the presidential page will continue to follow the relative popularity of the Obama administration as well as national trends for the Republican and Democratic Part as well as any independent parties.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Will resume next year with reports from Americans on the ground--political and cultural figures and interested citizens, alike--reporting on local political and cultural trends leading up to the 2012 cycle, from the perspective that matters most: with voters on the ground.

Assessing the president's reelection chances in 2012, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Obama is tied at 47% with a generic Republican challenger. PPP writes: "The takeaway from this poll is about the same as every month -- Obama's
pretty weak but his likely opposition is pretty darn weak too."

Would Sarah Palin make a good president? Most Americans say no, according to a 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll. 59% of Americans said they don't think Sarah Palin would be an effective president of the United States. GOP voters have a different opinion, however: by a 47% to 40% margin, Republicans believe Palin would be an effective president.

A new CNN poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the field of potential 2012 Republican
presidential candidates with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 18%, Newt
Gingrich at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14% and Ron Paul at 10%. Another poll, however, from Public Policy Polling survey shows the candidates essentially tied: Huckabee at 23%, Romney at 22%, Palin at 21% and Gingrich at 21%.

A newly released survey from the Clarus Research Group of GOP voters reports that support for Sarah Palin for the 2012
Republican presidential nomination has fallen considerably since
March, declining from 18% to 12%. Clarus reports: "Palin gets more attention from the national
media than presidential support from Republicans. The major change
since March is that Gingrich has now edged out Palin for third place,
even though the two are running well within the statistical margin of
error."

According to a new Gallup survey, American "registered voters remain split on whether President Obama
deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51%
saying he does not -- little changed from earlier this year." Here is their chart:

Gallup continues: "The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president's
basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 48%
in Gallup Daily tracking [in mid-June] . . . Obama received 53% of the popular vote in his 2008 victory over
Republican John McCain. The current re-elect data suggest that --
depending on the Republican nominee -- the 2012 presidential election
could be quite competitive were it held today."

Who is the most popular candidate among Iowa Republicans for the 2012 presidential race? A recent Iowa
Poll reports that 62% of Republicans are very or mostly favorable
toward Mitt Romney; 58% like Sarah
Palin; and 56% are favorable to Newt Gingrich. PollTrack suggests not reading much into this very early sampling of GOP sentiment. Much can change over the next years and a half.

A new Public
Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama is virtually
tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican
nomination. The poll's results: Obama trails Mike Huckabee 47% to 45% and Mitt
Romney 45% to 44%. He is tied with Newt Gingrich, at 45%. He leads one candidate by a slim margin: Sarah
Palin, at 47% to 45%. PPP's analysis suggests that the President is at his weakest point in "13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health
care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least
in the short term."

Far ahead of the game--and at a point where little predictive information can be gained--a new CNN/Opinion
Research poll reports that if the 2012 presidential election were
held today, President Obama would garner 47% of
registered voters; an unnamed Republican
challenger would poll an equal amount of voters.

A new Public
Policy Polling survey reports that former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney is leading the 2012
presidential Republican nomination race with 28% support, followed by Mike Huckabee at 24% and
Sarah Palin at 23% and Ron Paul at 11%. These numbers suggests not only a close race, but a decidedly undecided Republican party, split between the more mainstream conservatism of Romney, cultural conservatism of Huckabee, and Tea Bag conservatism of Palin.

In numbers that cannot be reassurinf to President Obama, 52% of Americans in a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday said that he does not deserve reelection in 2012. "44% of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the
president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who
said they would prefer to elect someone else. Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters . . . . Four percent had no opinion."

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey President Obama, for the first time, "trails one of his hypothetical opponents," for reelection, "albeit by the smallest of margins." Mike Huckabee edges Obama, 45% to 44%, but leads Mitt Romney (44% to 42%) and Sarah Palin (49% to 41%).

There is change in the air, at least in how Democrats will pick their presidential nominee in 2012: The DNC Change Commission, charged with revamping the nominating process, discussed draft findings and
recommendations regarding the timing of primaries/caucuses, the role of
super delegates, and caucus issues . . . As to timing, the discussion was relatively brief and consistent
with prior discussions--Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada can [start voting] after Feb. 1, every
other state goes after March 1, the rules should encourage regional
clusters by offering incentives such as bonus delegates, the RBC will
address enforcement procedures and sanctions, and the DNC will try to
coordinate timing with the RNC rules committee. The RNC coordination
process is ongoing. Commission members recognized that the best hope for a spread out
process lies with agreement with the RNC on starting date, both parties
imposing the same penalties for going out of turn, incentives to states
to move back and cluster, and the states recognition that frontloading
is no longer the best way to get attention."

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, 32% of GOP voters say they would support
Mike Huckabee (R), followed by Sarah Palin (R) at 25%, Mitt Romney at
21% and Tim Pawlenty at 5% for the 2012 Republican nomination for president. The survey concludes: "Huckabee appears to have more support
among Republicans than Palin and her unfavorable rating among all
Americans is twice as high as Huckabee's. Palin may attract a lot of
attention but the GOP may be looking elsewhere for their frontrunner."

According to a new Public Policy Polling analysis, "Barack Obama continues
to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for
reelection. Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.This
is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll and the seventh time
Huckabee has polled closest to Obama. Speaking to the weakness of the
field of potential Republican candidates he's the only with a positive
favorability rating and even then it's only 33/29. Huckabee's
doing well because he connects better than the other GOP hopefuls with
voters in the Midwest and South. For instance while Romney, Palin, and
Pawlenty trail by 9, 17, and 18 points respectively in the Midwest
Huckabee is down by just 3, something that could be a good omen for his
prospects of again winning the Iowa primary as he did in 2008."

According to Gallup, Sarah Palin's national standing remains relatively low: "Palin became a bit of a sensation after John McCain tapped her as
his running mate last August. But over the course of the campaign, her
image suffered, going from a 53% favorable rating immediately after the
2008 Republican National Convention to 42% by the end of the campaign. Palin's ratings have not recovered, and her current 40% favorable
rating is the lowest for her since she became widely known after last
year's Republican convention."As for her chances in 2012, Gallup finds that sge is still popular with the Republican base, faring competitively against other GOP leaders like Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney: "Palin could compete for the 2012 nomination because she is still widely
liked by Republicans -- 69% have a favorable opinion of her while only
25% view her unfavorably. But she may have difficulty succeeding in the
general election, given that Democrats have overwhelmingly negative
opinions of her, and independents view her more negatively than
positively."

Republican Sarah Palin of Alaska--once one of the nation's most popular Governors, with approval rating hovering at 80%--is left office this past week on a sour note with voters. More voters in the state now view her negatively, according to a new survey by Hays Research. As it now stands, 47.5% of Alaska voters have an unfavorable view of Palin while 46.8% are favorable.

Despite President Obama's somewhat diminished, but still decent, approval rating in the key swing state of Minnesota, voters seem prepared to enthusiastically reelect him over incumbent Republican Governor and likely 2012 presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. According new a Public Policy Polling survey, "Obama's approval rating in Minnesota has dropped six points since April,
but that doesn't mean voters are responding too positively to some of his
Republican alternatives. 54% of voters in the state now give Obama good
marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from
a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his
popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among
independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters
in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12%
do. Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical
contest against Tim Pawlenty . . . Against Pawlenty Obama
leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain
in the state last fall."Significantly, the same poll reveals that he would beat Alaska Governor by a whopping 21-point margin if the 2012 were held today--56% to 35%--"which would be the most lopsided Presidential
result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in
1964"

With some polls showing Obama's overall approval rating as high as 60% (Gallup) or as low as 52% (Rasmussen), a new Public Policy Polling survey shows an even steeper, indeed dramatic decline: The poll "finds Barack Obama’s approval rating dropping to 50%, continuing a gradual decline in his numbers over the last two months. In May Obama was at 55%. That dropped to 52% in June before today’s poll. Obama’s decline comes largely as a result of a reduction in his bipartisan support. His approval among Republicans is now 12% after being in the 18-19% range in the previous two polls. While he has maintained strong support from African Americans and Hispanics his approval has dipped to below 40% with whites. He’s also seen a pretty large shift with moderates, from 67% approval to 61%."

His long term prospects for reelection--a ridiculous thing to poll at this point, since presidents do not generally come into their own politically for several years after their election--appear rosier according to PPP: "Tested in hypothetical contests against some possible 2012 GOP opponents Obama still maintains leads similar to what he won in the popular vote against John McCain last fall. He has a nine point lead against Mitt Romney, eight point ones against Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, and a six point one against Mike Huckabee."

Yet, another poll by Rasmussen, reports a much bleaker outlook for the President in 2012: "If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President
Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45%
each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another
potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah
Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%. In both match-ups, 7% like some other
candidate, with 3% undecided."

Former MA Governor Mitt Romney has pulled into an early lead in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president. According to Gallup, "about one in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents make
Mitt Romney their top choice for the 2012 Republican presidential
nomination, giving him a slight edge over Sarah Palin and Mike
Huckabee. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the choice of 14% of
Republicans, with much smaller numbers choosing current Govs. Tim
Pawlenty of Minnesota and Haley Barbour of Mississippi.

In a result that may appear somewhat counterintuitive, given the president's healthy approval rating 100 days into his administration, a new Rasmussen Poll reports that "for the first time since Obama was elected president
last November, more than half of U.S. voters (53%) say it is at least somewhat
likely that the next occupant of the White House will be a Republican. 31% say it is Very Likely. 35% say it is not very or not at all
likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 12% aren’t sure. This is not an expectation related to the 2012 election. It
is a question about the President following Obama which could happen in either
2012 or 2016."

In the 2008 cycle, the state of Colorado was the ultimate swing state, a strong bellwether of other states that have remained close in recent national cycles. Where does the state stand today with regard to Barack Obama? PollTrack suggests that the answer may not be good news for the new president. According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama receives approval from only "49% of voters with 45% dissenting. . . . a much smaller swath of the electorate approving of [his] job performance than voted for [him] last fall, and it looks like a lot of that may have to do with [his] standing among independent voters. An average of PPP’s final three Colorado polls last year found Obama . . . doing spectacularly well among independent voters. Obama had a 24 point lead . . . But now only 48% of independents approve of what the President is doing with 47% disapproving."

President Obama's approval rating--when matched to voters' party affiliation, according to a new Pew Research Survey--suggest as wide partisan gap: "For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most
polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four
decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job
performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings
for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively
low approval ratings among Republicans (27%). By comparison, there was a somewhat smaller 51-point partisan gap in
views of George W. Bush's job performance in April 2001, a few months
into his first term. At that time, Republican enthusiasm for Bush was
comparable to how Democrats feel about Obama today, but there was
substantially less criticism from members of the opposition party.
Among Democrats, 36% approved of Bush's job performance in April 2001;
that compares with a 27% job approval rating for Obama among
Republicans today." The longterm implications of this are unclear, PollTrack believes, because the poll does not report the leanings of the all-important independent and unaffiliated voters.

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama would easily defeat Republican Sarah Palin in 2012 in a hypothetical match up, suggesting that such a contest would result in the largest popular vote blowout since George McGovern ran against Richard Nixon in 1972: "Obama leads Palin 55%-35% in the hypothetical contest. He has an 89%-7% advantage among Democrats. Among Republican he trails 66%-17%. Last year exit polls showed Obama winning only 9% of the Republican vote, so it appears Palin would lose a lot more voters within her party than McCain did. It’s also worth noting that while only 3% of Democrats are undecided about who they would support in an Obama/Palin contest, 18% of Republicans are, an indication of even more hesitation with some GOP voters about supporting Palin if she ended up as the nominee"

For the third straight year, Mitt Romney has won the presidential
preference straw poll of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) with 20% of the vote. Bobby Jindal finished with 14%, just
ahead of Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, who got 13% each. Newt Gingrich finished with
10%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Mark Sanford 4%, Rudy Giuliani 3%, Tim Pawlenty 2%,
Charlie Crist 1%, and 9% said they were undecided. The organization, which
supports right-wing Republican values and candidates, is exceptionally conservative:95% said
they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing, 80% "strongly disapproving.” Probably not significant enough to be taken seriously at
this point, the CPAC straw poll is a notoriously inaccurate at predicting the
eventual Republican Party nominee. In 1999, it awarded the straw poll victory to
Steve Forbes. In 2005 and 2006, it went to George Allen, and in 2007 and 2008, to
Mitt Romney.

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered Republican voters suggests that Sarah Palin has a slight--but only slight edge--in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: 29% of say they are most likely to
support Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "Right behind the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, and
well within the poll's 4.5% sampling error, is former Arkansas
Gov. Mike Huckabee. 26% of those questioned say they are
most likely backing the former, and possibly future, Republican
presidential candidate. 21% of Republicans polled say they most likely would
support former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another GOP hopeful from
the last campaign who may put his hat into the ring again. 9% say they would probably back Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal." The poll was taken before Jindal's primtime response to President Obana's Monday night address to congress, a performance that has met with considerable criticism from a number of Republican commentators. 10% of respondents support other candidates.

Politico reports that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, "seen by many Republicans as the most
promising standard-bearer for a remade party, said at a Richmond, Va
press conference that he isn't running for president in 2012. At a news conference Wednesday with Bob McDonnell, Virginia's 2009
Republican candidate for governor, Jindal was asked if he was
interested in being president, AP reports. His answer: "No." Jindal said he's planning to run for reelection in 2011, something that
would make pivoting to a national campaign logistically and politically
tricky."

The race for the White House has just begun anew. Not for 2008, of course. But in 2012, one name has emerged as a Repiblican challenger to Barack Obama: Former Massachusetts governer, Mitt Romney. According to the Boston Globe, Romney "is laying the groundwork for a possible White House campaign in
2012, hiring a team of staff members and consultants with money from a
fund-raising committee he established with the ostensible purpose of
supporting other GOP candidates." The article goes on to report that Romney has raised $2.1 million for his Free and Strong
America political action committee (to help Republican candidate's accross the country), but notes that only 12 percent of the money
has been spent distributing checks. "Instead, the largest chunk of the money has
gone to support Romney's political ambitions, paying for salaries and
consulting fees to over a half-dozen of Romney's longtime political
aides, according to a Globe review of expenditures." In other words, Romney is building the groundwork for a 2012 run.

President-elect Barack Obama hasn't even been inaugurated, and CNN/Opinion Research is out with a new poll handicaping the race for the Republican nomination in 2012. In its survey of registered voters, former Arkansas governer Mike Huckabee tops the list at 34%. Sarah Palin, John McCain's nominee for vice-president, comes in second at 32%. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in third place in the poll, with 28%. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich draws 27%. And former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani comes in fifth at 23%.

Barack Obama has not even been sworn in as the nation's 44th president, and Gallup is out with a new survey about Republican Party preferences for president in 2012. Surprisingly or not, the top names were also active in this year's campaign. According to Gallup, "Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are most interested in
seeing Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee run for the party's
presidential nomination in 2012. Those three received the highest
scores among the 10 possible candidates evaluated in a recent Gallup
Panel survey." GOP support is at 67% for Palin, 62% for Romney, and 61% for Huckabee. Not all of this year's candidates muster enthusiasm among the GOP ranks: "Republicans are evenly divided as to whether Rudy Giuliani should make
another attempt at the White House. Giuliani was the early front-runner
for the 2008 nomination, but performed poorly in the early primaries
and caucuses before dropping out of the race . . . Republicans are also evenly divided on potential candidacies from
former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Louisiana Gov. Bobby
Jindal . . . [They] are decidedly unenthusiastic about possible White House
bids from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, current Florida Gov. Charlie
Crist, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham."