Voting has finished. The Dolby Theatre is being prepared. Speeches are being written. Now it's time for the 86th Academy Awards to anoint the latest generation of Oscar winners, while tens of millions watch on televisions around the world.

There are certainties – you can put the house on Frozen for best animated feature and Gravity for best visual effects – but there are still some delicious questions to be answered.

After acknowledging two movies about American slavery last year – Django Unchained and Lincoln – will Oscar voters honour 12 Years A Slave with best picture? Or will they respond more to the ambition, technical brilliance and philosophical depth of Gravity? Let's start with the big one ...

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BEST PICTURE

Rule out Nebraska and Dallas Buyers Club first. Then cross out Philomena, Captain Phillips and the under-rated Her. While two raucous portraits of American life, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street, could spring an upset, the choice is really down to an emotional real-life drama about a man hijacked into slavery and a brilliantly inventive action movie set in space.

Likely winner:12 Years A Slave.

Should win:Gravity.

Unlucky not to be nominated:All is Lost.

Best story:The Wolf of Wall Street shocks everyone and the cast celebrates Jordan Belfort-style on stage.

BEST DIRECTOR

While Alexander Payne (Nebraska) is lucky to be included this year, David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) have solid cases. But the Oscar should be between Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) and Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave).

Likely winner: Alfonso Cuaron.

Should win: Alfonso Cuaron.

Unlucky: Spike Jonze (Her).

Best story: Cuaron, whose thick Mexican accent meant Bullock once thought he was going to give her "herpes" instead of an "earpiece".

BEST ACTOR

As star and producer, Leonardo DiCaprio has been campaigning hard for The Wolf of Wall Street. Former winner Christian Bale (American Hustle) would collect again if the Oscar was for best comb-over. At 77, Bruce Dern (Nebraska) is a sentimental choice. But the two exceptional performances are by Chiwetel Ejiofor as a slave (12 Years a Slave) and Matthew McConaughey as a HIV drug-runner (Dallas Buyers Club).

Likely winner: Matthew McConaughey.

Should win: Matthew McConaughey or Chiwetel Ejiofor.

Unlucky: Robert Redford (All Is Lost).

Best story: Leonardo DiCaprio triumphs and officially becomes king of the world.

BEST ACTRESS

Can anyone beat Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) who has won every other award this year? While unlikely, the sexual abuse allegations against Woody Allen could open the door to Amy Adams (American Hustle). The field also includes Judi Dench (Philomena), Sandra Bullock (Gravity) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County).

Likely winner: Cate Blanchett.

Should win: Cate Blanchett.

Unlucky: Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks).

Best story: Cate Blanchett disintegrates like Jasmine on stage.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

What a story it would be if a former Hollywood limo driver, Somali-American Barkhad Abdi, won for Captain Phillips. But Jared Leto is raging favourite for his performance in Dallas Buyers Club. Also in the running are Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave).

Likely winner: Jared Leto.

Should win: Jared Leto.

Unlucky: Daniel Bruhl (Rush).

Best story: Barkhad Abdi wins.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

A not-so-strong field includes Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and June Squibb (Nebraska). The outstanding performances were by Jennifer Lawrence as a brassy '70s housewife (American Hustle) and film debutant Lupita Nyong'o as a slave (12 Years a Slave).

Likely winner: Lupita Nyong'o or Jennifer Lawrence.

Should win: Lupita Nyong'o.

Unlucky: No one really.

Best story: June Squibb triumphs at 84.

THE OTHER AUSTRALIAN NOMINEES

Given the claims of Gravity, David Clayton is at long odds to win best visual effects for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

But Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn are a strong chance of winning best production design for The Great Gatsby and Martin is an even better chance to claim best costumes, despite hot competition from Michael Wilkinson for American Hustle.

Likely winners: Catherine Martin (twice) and Beverley Dunn

Unlucky: Lana Del Rey for the song Young and Beautiful from The Great Gatsby.

Best story: A tie between Martin and Wilkinson for best costumes.

The Academy Awards will be live blogged on Fairfax websites as it screens on the Nine Network on Monday from 12.30pm. For more entertainment news and reviews pick up a copy of tomorrow's Shortlist liftout.

Poll: This year's selection up for best picture at the Academy Awards ranges from slavery to space, which film do you think should take home the Oscar?

These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

28 comments so far

You lost all credibility at Gravity should win.... seriously. So much about the movie to dislike, even ignoring the physics gaffes. Itried to suspend disbelief in the laws of the universe, but Bullock's acting was at times painful to watch.

Commenter

Bulldust

Location

Perth

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 2:12PM

Agree. Gravity was overrated. As was Wolf of Wall Street. What a vile, offensive peice of work. Worst of all it was boring.

Commenter

Bushranger

Location

Sydney

Date and time

February 28, 2014, 1:14PM

Fell asleep in 12 years a slave, started to wish I was a slave to get out of it.Easily the worse movie ever to be nominated, & I find it quite comical it is favourite. Can't win.

Commenter

bb

Location

SYD

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 2:38PM

Please explain how being a slave would get you out of it (or indeed, why you think it a good idea to wish you were a slave)

Commenter

janeygotagun

Location

Date and time

February 28, 2014, 11:52AM

I honestly don't think "American Hustle" is a credible Oscar contender. So much buzz for a movie with barely anything to it. Slow moving, average story, poor performances - the producers must be paying through the teeth to generate all this hype.

Commenter

Meat Cat

Location

Sydney

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 2:42PM

This. American Hustle should win an award for the most over-hyped, slow-paced, sleep-inducing movie ever made. One hour in, and I was squirming in my seat out of sheer restlessness and asking my partner when something interesting was going to happen. He wasn't sure either. One and half hours in and I'd lifted the arm of the empty couple's seat next to me to lay down and slip into my boredom coma. We stuck it through to the end, although it's 140 minutes of our lives we'll never get back.

Commenter

I'm With The Band

Location

Backstage

Date and time

February 28, 2014, 11:03AM

so many great films and performances but it is hard to beat the hard to watch "12 Years a Slave".

Commenter

sybella

Location

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 3:07PM

I'm sorry. Gravity LOOKED amazing, but the story was complete rubbish. No Best Picture for that. And no best actress for the one dimensional Sandra Bullock.

Commenter

Darron

Location

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 3:09PM

This is a particularly strong year in a couple of areas. Best film and especially best actor in a leading role. You often have two or three stand out movies and a few making up the numbers. I was actually very disappointed by Gravity. I loved 12 Years A Slave and Nebraska. Every nominee in the best actor category deserves an award. Best actress is a shoe in for Cate Balnchett. I thought June Squibb was amazing. I thought the 3D effects in Gravity were blurred and did nothing for the film.

Commenter

Fellini Satirical

Location

Date and time

February 27, 2014, 3:33PM

12 Years a slave is well gut wrenching. I left me speechless for nearly 45 mins.