We are often asked what our best sport is in handicapping.At GodsTips.com we’ve gotten to the point where we are at the top of the list in every sport, so it’s difficult to single one out.However there is no question that our mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaulted me to the point where professional sports handicapping would be my lifelong profession.

Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improve upon our results in other sports, over the last year and a half, I returned to the pack in baseball.It was time for some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back to my handwritten spiral notebook scorephone days, I saved my picks, analysis and results from decades past.

Was I doing something differently all of a sudden? After a few hours of soul searching, it became obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of the basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.

In some respects, I became a victim of my own success. In 2005, I had probably my best year winning what we call “Dandy Dogs”. Dandy Dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline plays getting back 140 or more).

The downside was it led me to develop a bias against even small favorites.I’ve known and preached for years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, a 150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance of winning to be a break even bet or based on our threshold had to have 70 percent chance of winning to be a premium play.Yet there were nights I’d go 3-4 and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit by bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.

Too many well-handicapped favorites of more than 120 became passes for me simply because of my increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice.Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites have been a major reason behind my return to MLB handicapping prominence.

But even with picking our baseball underdogs, we became victims of the successes we had in other sports.We take great pride in being ahead of the curve with modern technology. The Internet made every team the “local team” from a handicapping standpoint because once regional information is now so easily accessible.

The World Wide Web has been a boon to us in preseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and motivation info. In college football and basketball it has revolutionized the way sharp players bet.

While super systems have been a great addition in all sports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to light that we were allowing the Billy Beane and Bill James inspired new fangled stats to convince us out of winning picks.

In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had significant success with big underdogs by riding either hot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star pitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that talked us out of the same kind of plays that for decades won for us.

Let there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and WHIP are still the two most important statistics in foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in handicapping offense we have streamlined with great success. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to utilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage foremost.

We never stop fine tuning our techniques but our introspection reminds us sometimes we need to remember “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”. Since returning to our roots in baseball handicapping, not-so-coincidently we have returned to the results our clients and we desire.

With all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting edge computer software is imperative to staying ahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception. Baseball handicapping is much like playing the game: master the basic fundamentals.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.comHe is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Thursday it was Wise Guy dog on the White Sox plus Major on Cleveland. Since going back to basics, Dream Team at GodsTips is 20-11 with dog winners outnumbering chalk losers by 10-2. We are 8-1 our last nine and are on a 4-0 run with Wise Guy plays with three being dogs.

We have three sides (one day) and two runline plays.Four of the five plays are for night action from the best and hottest handicapper on Earth. Remember two weeks free with the purchase of a monthly pass.TODAY IS THE LAST DAY to purchase at OffshoreInsiders.com

Thursday it was Wise Guy dog on the White Sox plus Major on Cleveland. Since going back to basics, Dream Team at GodsTips is 20-11 with dog winners outnumbering chalk losers by 10-2. We are 8-1 our last nine and are on a 4-0 run with Wise Guy plays with three being dogs.

We have three sides (one day) and two runline plays.Four of the five plays are for night action from the best and hottest handicapper on Earth. Remember two weeks free with the purchase of a monthly pass.TODAY IS THE LAST DAY. You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.

MLB

PITTSBURGH (SNELL -165) Washington (Chico)

Ian Snell is certainly far and away the superior pitcher in this matchup. In 15 starts his ERA is 2.92 and his WHIP is 1.200. At home he’s even better at 2.22 with a 1.192 WHIP.

Pittsburgh has won four of his last five starts. Washington is 3-9 after a nice surge, but they are returning to form. The home team is 13-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 18.

The Pirates have some lefty killers Xavier Nady, Freddy Sanchez and JasonBay.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com sweeps for the second straight day going 6-0 the last two days. Yesterday it was three Wise Guy plays: Seattle +170, Baltimore +125, and the White Sox.We started out with a Major on Milwaukee. You have two days left to get two free weeks of GodsTips.com. What a summer we have ahead of us!

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

The Dream Team at GodsTips is back where we belong.We have hit six straight plays.We are 18-10 our last 28 with the dog winners outnumbering the chalk losers 10-1! Our huge sale expires Friday, June 29.

Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.comSPECIAL BONUS UNTIL JUNE 29. The monthly package is extended to 45 days. That’s two week for free! (Days are also credited for All-Star break)

MLB

Wise Guy…

SEATTLE (FEIERABEND +170) Boston (Matsuzak)

Going against favorites of 150 or more starting a pitcher who gave up less than two earned runs in each of his last two outings with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 over his last three starts is +104.7 units.

Remember Boston recently lost three straight starts with Matsuzaki. Seattle has won 6-of-7.

BALTIMORE (BEDARD +125) NY Yankees (Clemens)

Roger Clemens has struggled with a 5.09 ERA and 1-2 team record. Erik Bedard has a 3.60 ERA and 1.230 WHIP. His home ERA is 2.95.

The Yanks are hitting .258 in their last seven games with an OBP of .321. Erik Bedard has beaten the Yanks in two straight and he’s given up 6 ER in his last 19 IP to them.

WHITE SOX (BUEHRLE -113) Tampa (Sonnanstin)

Mark Buehrle has a 3.39 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 14 starts. On the road, it’s a sensational 3.16 ERA and .984 WHIP. His last three starts his ERA is 1.57 and a .913 WHIP. Andy Sonnanstine has a 6.58 ERA and 1.308 WHIP.

The Sox have won two straight while Tampa has flopped in 5-of-7.

Major…

MILWAUKEE (SUPPAN -155) Houston (Williams)

Milwaukee is 29-13 at home.The Brewers are 6-2 in the series. Houston has lost 5-of-6.

Going against teams averaging .9 or fewer home runs per game against a pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts is 298-208 +98.2 units. Houston has lost four straight road games with Williams and 6-of-7.

Milwaukee is 5-1 their last six at home with Suppan.

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play.Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. We always urge line shopping to compliment the sharpest plays in the world and release plays as early as possible to ensure more success. Often our plays are released before most sportsbooks have lines up.If we released plays later in the day, it would allow us to shop for better lines than we are able to post.But we are more concerned about YOU being able to shop for better lines.Be aware that in many cases better lines will be available than the ones we post.

Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above.While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections.Said distinction is for such ala carte players.

***Please be aware, because of upgrades in our systems with many relevant to the pitchers, now ALL GodsTips.com plays specify pitchers unless otherwise noted.

ANOTHER SWEEP, CUBS & MILWAUKEE LAST NIGHT, DAY CARD IS UP—MAJOR AND WISE GUY PLAYS FOR DAY ACTION, NOW 2 NIGHT WG

Three Wise Guy plays and a Major! America’s Greatest over the last week finally has the mojo working the way it has for the last quarter century. We sweep with the Cubs and Brewers last night. We start you out with two day winners for Wednesday.We then have two night Wise Guys. You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.

MLB

METS (GLAVINE -195) St. Louis (Reyes)

The Mets had lost 4-of-5.The Mets are 4-1 in the series this year and 4-1 at home the last two years at home in the series.

Going against teams averaging .9 or fewer home runs per game against a pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts is 298-208 +98.2 units.

The Cards are 1-10 with Reyes.Over his last four starts his ERA is 9.73. Tom Glavine is struggling too but has a much better track record than Reyes.

The Cards are horrible to lefties with a .254 batting average and .684 OPS.

Small favorite Detroit, Dandy Dog San Francisco and small dog Cubs cash in for GodsTips.com as clearly we are back where we want to be.“Bad” days are when we split a card of dogs. If you are not already part of the largest assembly of permanent clients, begin the rest of your gambling life today.You will never look back.

MLB

True we are much more liberal with the juice on free plays than we are on the premium plays, but the Cards are a shell of themselves while the Mets are rolling, so hop on their bandwagon.

The Mets are 3-0 in the series and enter having won three straight. Sorry, with the Cards offense, Mike Maroth won’t be able to dodge bullets they way he did with Detroit. His road WHIP is 1.772.In five of his last nine starts he’s given up at least four earned runs. In four of those starts he’s given up at least five.

On the other hand, Jorge Sosa has a 1.141 home WHIP. Heck his overall WHIP in nine starts is 1.181 WHIP.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

4 MAJORS, 2 WISE GUY PLAYS SUNDAY; RECENT RUN WITH ALL DOGS AND SMALL CHALK IS 9-5

Why even brag about our accomplishments over the last few years or decades? Anyone and every single person who gives a flip about sustained winning is part of the largest contingent of permanent clients in the history of the industry.For the rest of you, lately we are a solid 9-5 with all dogs and small favorites.We have two Wise Guy plays and four Majors.

We have five sides and a runline.Including the runline we have three Dandy Dogs. Dandy dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline getting back 140 or more). You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.

MLB

DETROIT (MILLER -115) Atlanta (James)

Detroit has won six straight while Atlanta has failed four in a row.Detroit is 14-5 their last 19. Atlanta is 6-13 the last 19. Detroit has scored five or more runs in 15-of-21.Atlanta has done it six times in the same span. In fact, Atlanta has scored three or less in 13-of-21.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Here goes America’s Greatest.Dandy Dog Colorado makes it 7-2 the last nine. We have four winners Friday, three sides and a runline. We have a Wise Guy dog. You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.

MLB

ST. LOUIS (REYES -100) Philadelphia (Moyer)

The Cards are 4-1 their last five. Philadelphia has lost 3-of-4. There are many systems favoring the Cards.Going with a home team in virtual pick ‘em games (line 125 or less either way) with a pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or higher over his last three starts and a bullpen that averages 3 2/3 IP or more per game is 227-154 +79.1 units.

Get seven winners, four for the day, three for the night. Three of the games have super systems that are at least +105 units based on one, yes just one unit per bet. We have two of our famed competitor consensus plays.Go 7-0 now. You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips $17 at OffshoreInsiders.com.

MLB

MILWAUKEE (VARGAS -135) San Francisco (Zito)

The Brewers are a sensational 24-12 at home.They’ve won 6-of-7 overall. San Francisco has lost six straight. Milwaukee is 7-1 at home in the series. Milwaukee is 10-2 with Vargas including 6-0 at home.

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers.In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance.Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN.In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road.Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction.Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13th last season?

As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7th in hitting (24th pitching).

PetcoPark is a rare exception.They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them.For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road, so there is no angle in the fact Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and David Wells for example do.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home.This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust.As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.

Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.comHe is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.