Sunday, November 11, 2007

He's 13 1/2 inches tall. He wears only a sword. He's shiny. Everybody wants him. This is a new weekly Sunday series --my attempt to keep Oscar discussion corraled in the weekends until we're trulyinthe season.

In the early days of November the vast majority of movie buffs and Oscar freaks view the final two months of the year through rose colored glasses. That’s pleasantly optimistic (we all want new films to be great) but it doesn’t reveal the whole picture. ‘December is king!’ lenses have blindspots though they’re also not entirely blinding. The shiny gold man does prefer late year releases… just not quite as much as people think. He does have a type “fresh, serious, uplifting” but it's a type not a fetish: he doesn’t need it to perform, he can be turned on by other things. If the December glut of “prestige” films is at all disappointing, Oscar will turn his bald shiny head back to gaze fondly at warmer months. He’s done it many times before.

So which filmthings that are mostly written off now, can rise like phoenixes? These filmthings might be crushed by the December heavyweights. But a select few could soar back to prominence if they see a window of opportunity. Especially if…

32 comments:

I'm surprised you don't have the Assassination of Jesse James score even listed at all under the score category. I know it's all about trying to predict the Oscars here but while the film itself doesn't have much of a shot at Pic, etc, I think it has a fair shot at Best Original Score. Especially since it is the best original score I've heard this year so far.

Wonderful article. Yeah, it will very be interesting to see how AMPAS handles “300”.

But why no mention of “Knocked Up”?

I think it’ll be huge at the Globes- although the HFPA’s “40 Year-Old-Virgin” shutout makes me a tad nervous. Still, I think the film and Heigl are locks for nods. And pending the Best Comedy winner (as well as the WGA strike) I think it has a serious shot at an Oscar nod for its screenplay. I’ll keep my fingers crossed.

Am I the only person that thought Casey Affleck was annoying (and not that accomplished) in Jesse James? Maybe I'm confusing character and actor here, but I found his performance far, far too calculating to make any sense against Pitt's superior enigmatic cowboy.

RATATOUILLE is such a lock that i think it'll bring a screenplay nod with it. maybe score, too.

so i didn't feel it needed mentioning. if we didnt have an animated category i'd have even higher hopes. but we do so...

joe i would be thrilled to see Savides in for ZODIAC instead of AMERICAN GANGSTER but I'm worried they won't look back to March. I mean that film came out something like one week after last year's Oscars. too bad it's so rare for early year films to be successful with Oscar. Remember when Jodie Foster and Anthony Hopkins presented at the March 1991 oscars all flush with the huge success of Silence of the Lambs. One year later they were back accepting trophies for it?

I do think that you are slightly underestimating Jonny Greenwood's "There Will Be Blood" score. From most accounts the score fairly in your face and one of the most praised aspects of the film's production. It's negatives are that its not by a previously nominated composer and that its "difficult" (i.e. electronic), but since the composer is Jonny Greenwood, aka the guitarist of Radiohead, I think it might be hard for the Academy to pass up the "cool factor" of nominating him. If the movie does manage to get a Best Picture nod (which I agree it won't) there is almost no way it doesn't get a Score nomination.

Also, on the topic of There Will Be Blood, if its art direction is as good as everyone says it is, I think it will get a nomination too. Jack Fisk (aka Sissy Spacek's husband) is possibly the most overdue art director currently working in the industry. While he hasn't worked that often he has done the art direction for all of Terrence Malick's films, Carrie, and Mulholland Dr. I think the Academy might finally have to nominate him.

I'm all about Assassination... but I'm still agnostic about Affleck. I don't even think he'd make my own Top Five (I think Pitt is superior), though he is excellent. Even at this early point, my list looks like this:

1. Right now, Casey Affleck gives my second favourite leading performance of the year (behind Sam Riley's great work in Control). And it would be great to see him get a leading nod. Not a supporting one. He's not supporting. He's not even a co-lead. (a la Blanchett). He's the lead. And, while this will never happen, a nomination for Garrett Dillahunt would be great too.

2. My problem with Angelina Jolie/A Mighty Heart is that it was viewed as a flop film that is largely viewed more coldly/intellectually than the academy likes (which is why I don't think we can rule Blanchett's superficial and empty work in The Golden Age out of the picture).

3. Won't AMPAS handle 300 the same way they handled Sin City? By completely ignoring it?

Critics hated the movie (45% RT, 56 MC) but there isn't a single review that doesn't mention Foster's bravura performance.

It'd be easy to put an ad campaign together if they bothered to. I can see Foster's devastated face with Emmenick's quote "fiercely arresting performance" or Travers'" Foster is electrifying as ego and id clash".

If critics could see again what they thought about the performance, she could be revived.

I'd love to see some love go the way of Jamie Bell in Hallam Foe, but he hasn't got a hope. Ditto Stephen Graham as Supporting Actor for This Is England.

So far in 'Actress' I'm all about Cotillard and Russell, so - based on your article - I'll move swiftly away from that category for now.

However, the one performance we're writing off that I could see happening is Imelda Staunton. I see it getting traction for the following 3 reasons:1) Residual Vera Drake goodwill2) You just KNOW that BAFTA will get behind it3) Increasingly the Actors' branch do get behind a genre performance you wouldn't expect them to notice (Depp in Pirates, Zellweger in Bridget)

On the matter of 300, my theory is that if they ignored Sky Captain in 2003 when the process was actually kind of groundbreaking why would they honour 300, which wasn't even as well-reviewed.

In regards to John Travolta, perhaps I'm crazy but I actually think he will get nominated. Travolta may be popular with audiences but he's even more popular with actors (correct me if I'm wrong) and while critics may have been more negative towards him general audiences who didn't have a connection to Divine love him and I'm sure all his actorly colleagues thought he was a hoot too.

Casey Affleck has given one of my very favourite perfs of the year with Jesse James and I'm sure he's as great as I have heard in Gone Baby Gone, plus he was the best thing about Ocean's 13. What a year.

They'll have to seriously look at the spring and summer films this year, b/c the prestige fall films are droppin' like flies right now. There's a big problem when the most viable candidate going into the Oscars right now is "American Gangster" considering all of the dramas that had come before it lately.

Okay, here goes. I thought that ASSASSINATION was incredible. Absolutely the best thing I've seen this year and Casey Affleck? There is a tremulousness in that performance that is unlike anything I've ever seen. I’d give him the Oscar today. But you're all crazy if you think that movie's getting a single nomination. The 2007 western for the Academy is 3:10 TO YUMA.

If a "feel good" film wins this year, look out for "The Great Debaters". Everyone's sleeping on it right now, but it has all the potential to upset the anointed frontrunners ("Atonement", "No Country for Old Men", "American Gangster", etc.) with its "heart".

VIGGO MORTENSEN - What a incredible performance in Eastern Promises! This actor is way overdue, and it is time that the academy seriously take a look at Cronenberg as well.

Zodiac - What a great movie! So suspenseful, intriguing, and engrossing. Unfortunate release date has put this release in contention.

Chris Cooper - Delivered a fantastic performance in Breach.

Josh Brolin - This guy has had one hell of year. Reminds me of Jake Gyllenhaal's string of great performances the year Jarhead came out. Hopefully the Academy takes notice of his wonderful, wonderful performance in No Country For Old Men.

given that ZODIAC seems to have a enduring vocal support, maybe it can manage a decent campaign? cross your fingers.

I will cry if Denzel's rather dull ungenerous performance in AMERICAN GANGSTER gets in over inventive deeply film lifting work like what's going on with Casey Affleck and Viggo Mortenson among others. and I like Denzel (happy he has two Oscars) ... i just don't get the fuss at all over one of his laziest performances. he could've made AG in his sleep. so i'm already worried about the upcoming actor shortlist.