In this table the dark tan boxes
(with large negative values) are low years and dark green
boxes (with large positive values) are high years.

Fire Island is the only watch that shows
a clear increase in the number of green boxes in recent
years.(Cape May
shows some signs as well, but less so).So, in our region only FI shows an increasing trend
in OS numbers with LH, MP, MC & Hawk Mtn showing a
decrease.This is certainly NOT what we would expect if OS
populations were recovering from DDT poisoning!

So what kind of sense can we make of
this.Waaay
back, in the first year of the watch, we learned 2 important
lessons.One,
that although NW winds are the best for observing hawks
migrating, too much of a good thing will destroy the flight.The sense we made of this is that the hawks didn’t
want to be forced out over the water on N or NW winds that
were too strong and either stopped migrating or remained
inland.The
other observation was that OS flights were often best on NE
& Easterly winds.Now it seems clear that this is because many migrate
over water and like winds that will push them to shore when
they are so inclined (to rest? or feed?).

Well, now with
Trudy’s documentation of a decrease in Westerly winds and an
increase in Easterlies in recent years we are getting more
OS at FIRE.One
more effect may add to this is that at FIRE we may get a
high proportion of the breeding OS from out on Shelter
Island and all along the LI coast and barrier beach pushing
our totals up while the inland totals decrease anda higher proportion of all OS migrants are passing
over water (and out of sight) which decreases the numbers
inland.More
detailed discussion of this is available in the NEHW annual
Report of the last two years including documentation of the
increase in breeding OS, and some wonderful tracking data
from Robert Bierregaard

Congratulations everyone! We have reached 40,000 Merlins counted at the Fire Island Hawk Watch since we first began in 1982. The 40,000th Merlin passed our watch site on Sep 20, 2015. It was the 180th Merlin to fly over that day, so it was late afternoon, with only 4 more counted that day.

184 OSPREY to Reach 10,000

We need another 184 Osprey to reach 10,000 counted since the watch began. So, keep your eyes open and be sure we do not miss any.

Ospreys - The raptor count for 2015 set records for 6 of 7 species! Unfortunately the records are RECORD LOWS!

We had only one day with a total number of hawks over 100 – on 9/20 – John Gluth and Pat & Shai counted 81 OS, 90 AKs, 184 MLs and 9 PGs! It was our only day with persistent North and Northwest winds. The regional winds on that day are shown below:

Only OS, with a count +53% over our all-time average and +30% over their 10-year average, did well this September. Most of these may be mostly regional breeders that seem to have had a bumper crop this year, in part due to the unusually high numbers of menhaden in our area this year.

The BE count is too low to place any confidence in, but seems to be remaining approximately constant.

For the Sharpies and Kestrels this is just a continuation of the downward trend in place since 1994.

For the CHs it is still too early in the year to tell for sure. But if the explanation below is correct and the winds continue as they have been, they also will be low for the year.

There is still time for the NH, ML and PG to make up ground but I doubt they will.
The persistent E and NE winds seem to be carrying the hawks inland, away from the coast.

Of course, this is just speculation, but the inland watches seem to be on the way to setting record highs for MLs.
And the number of BWs at these sites are unusually low, except for the westernmost (Mt Peter). So the whole migration seems to have shifted inland. Hopefully, this is not going to be more than a one year phenomenon.
My hopes that El Nino would break the trend of recent years seems unfulfilled, in fact, it seems to have exacerbated the situation of recent years AND extended it to the ML & PGs as well.

We should have a better handle on what is happening when we can look at the total counts for the entire year in the whole region. But one very suggestive indication on what is happening to the hawks comes from what happened to the passerines on the night of 10/2. Below is the Doppler radar for 9pm that night. The dark blue circles are migrating passerines, the smudgy blue green is rain. The winds were strong from the Northeast, and very strong along the coast:

The birds are clearly taking advantage of the winds, avoiding the precipitation, and by-passing our area completely, heading directly to the Gulf Coast. I believe that the Easterly components of the wind for many days did the same thing to the migrating hawks. And so, perhaps, the low numbers of NH, ML, and PGs are just a result of this and the breeding season for them was at least near normal, even though our counts of them are at record lows.

We all owe a debt to all the hearty watchers who sat out, often on blistering hot September days, to document that indeed, there were very few hawks passing.

Stay tuned for developments – one thing we know about the natural world is that things never remain the same, and, hopefully, we’ll have a record high flight in October!

It's
that time of the year again. Both the hawks & the
hawkwatchers are getting itchy for the season
to begin.

Regular
daily coverage begins on 9/10 and will continue through
11/10. Coverage is in place for all the
weekdays, but we still need coverage for 10
Saturdays and Sundays. Please drop me a note if you can
cover a weekend day!

Merlins- in 33 years ('82-'14) we've
tallied a total of 39,682 Merlins, so it is
all but certain Merlin #40,000 will be counted this year!
I sure hope to be there when Merlin
#40,000 passes.

Ospreys
- Our total stands at 9500, so it
is possible that number 10,000 will
pass this year. On one hand, we have counted more than
500 OS in only 2 of our 33 years so
reaching #10,000 it is a long shot.
On the other hand, OS seem to be doing
well this year and we've already counted 27 in
pre-season coverage so far this year.

I’ll add
a number of pages with graphs of hawk counts from other
sites – Lighthouse Point in New Haven CT,
and Quaker Ridge in Greenwich CT - to the book
at the watch site. I found it very interesting to see
how their yearly totals have compared
with Fire Island’s over the last 30+ years.
Let me know if you see any patterns in our coastal raptor
populations.

Last
year's count totals at FIRE were pretty discouraging with
only OS, BE, and CH doing well. But
there are very encouraging reports from early
coverage at other watch sites…..so perhaps we’ll break a few
records this year!

Osprey
are the bright spot in this season’s count.The migration was
early – so while
the population of OS seems to be doing well, this year’s
breeding success may have been only average.
We seem to share OS
with Lighthouse Point in New Haven CT.By share I mean that
an OS that migrates past FI one year might pass further
inland on another year, depending on the prevailing and
previous wind/weather conditions.So we’ll have to see
how well Osprey do at other hawk watches before making
any firm statements about trends.At
FIRE, Osprey are above average.

Osprey
& Needlefish

Bald Eagles - increasing at FIRE?

Count and averages to 10/14

BE

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

2

2

0%

2.6

-23%

Bald Eagles seem to pass us more or less at random in very low numbers.FIRE, therefore, is not the place to monitor their passage.All inland watches seem to be having good numbers.And with a great deal of uncertaintythe overall trend at FIRE seems to be up.

Northern Harriers -
cause for concern

Count and averages to 10/14

NH

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

49

158

-69%

157

-69%

NH numbers are VERY worrisome.We appear to be heading for an all-time low count for them.The past 3 years have been very low as well.In a normal breeding year, the majority of migrants of all species are immature.The low numbers of NH for 3 consecutive years suggests that there has been little replacement of the adults that are lost to normal attrition, and we may begin to see a decline in the breeding adults as well.In Harriers the immatures precede the adults, so the next 2 weeks should tell the tale.I’m afraid we will set an all-time low count of NHs this year.

Sharp-shinned
Hawks - possible all-time low

Count and averages to 10/14

SS

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

62

310

-80%

129

-52%

SS hawks
have been declining for at least 20 years.In the last 20 years,
only 3 years have been equal to or higher than the
overall 31 year average.The last 3 years have
been below average, and each year has been lower than
the last.All indications are
that this year will continue this trend and I expect we
will have an all-time low count of SSs this year.The migration pattern
of Sharpies is similar to Harriers; the immatures
precede the adults.So there is some hope
for a couple of good pulses later this year. However, the poor breeding
seasons in the last 3 years likely have resulted in a
lower adult breeding population (as with the Harriers)
and we may tally
even fewer total SSs this year than the all-time low we
set last year (111).

Cooper's Hawks -
above all-time, below 10-yr average

Count and averages to 10/14

CH

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

15

13.2

14%

18.4

-18%

It is
too early to say how we are doing with CHs.The majority
(hopefully) are still to come.The Coops have been
increasing over the last 30 years, and this year (so
far) is above that average, but not as high as in the
last 10 years.They had a bad
breeding year along with the SSs & NHs. Keep
tuned to see if the breeding population is still
healthy.We also have the
possibility that although their population is steady or
increasing, fewer are migrating south.Warmer climate and
increasing numbers of backyard feeders could eventually
have this effect.

American Kestrels
- big trouble!

Count and averages to 10/14

AK

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

244

1389

-82%

689

-69%

Kestrels are in big trouble!Based on past data, 90% of all the AKs we will
count are through already!It is a no brainer to predict that this year
we’ll have a new all-time low count of AKs.Last year we set a low of 484, and my prediction
is that this year we will have a new low of 260 or less!While I had some hope that the marked decline
from 1994 had stabilized, this year refutes that and we
may be documenting the disappearance of this species
from the source regions we monitor.The indications from other coastal watches seem
to be the same. Inland
Kestrels are not quite as bad, but it is still aspecies in decline.

Merlins - down so
far

Count and averages to 10/14

ML

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

519

1001

-48%

1049

-51%

Merlins
are down markedly this year.Their overall trend
over the past 30 years have been steady or slightly
increasing.Last year MLs were
below average, but still much higher than this year.But at least we are
already above our all time low of 491 set back in 1984.Still this is our
bread and butter bird.For the last 30 years
you could go down to FIRE, and no matter what the winds,you would still see
Merlins.Not this year.Could it just be a
weather phenomenon, since this season has seen
predominantly South winds?Not likely in my view.While numbers of MLs
seem to be holding steady or increasing at inland sites,
their numbers are so low inland it is hard to believe
that all our birds are just going inland.My take on hawk
migration is that the main reason MLs are out on the
barrier beaches is not wind drift, but that they come
for the low vegetation habitat.I have suspected for
some time that some MLs (mostly adults) do move inland
and that may be the case this year.But that still leaves
us with a low count for the immatures. What
is worrying is that breeding habitats of MLs are very
different from the SSs, NHs, and AKs, so if we see them
declining as well, the decline is taking place in a wide
variety of habitats in N. America.Hopefully,
next year we will see a rebound of MLs.

*

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Peregrines - slightly down,
close to average; 22 on
9/29

Count and averages to 10/14

PG

All Years

% diff

10 Year

% diff

133

134

-5%

177

-25%

PGs are down slightly over
the average of the last 10 years.This is not yet worrisome unless it continues.Actually it opens the door for a little hope.The majority of our PGs are strong fliers and
tundra breeders as are the MLs.If the reason for this year’s decline is that the
tundra is becoming less hospitable to falcons we have a
serious problem.
But significant numbers of PGs do pass inland and off
shore and theirdecline this year may just be
a weather related phenomenon.

Location:

On a barrier beach, off the south shore of Long Island, NY. We're about
midway along Long Island, slightly west of due south from New Haven CT.

Driving directions: Proceed south on Robert Moses Parkway, over the bridge to
Robert Moses State Park. From the water tower circle (check for PG), proceed
East to parking lot #5. From the NE corner of the lot, walk east toward the
lighthouse. We watch from the highest point near the road barriers.

Other Weather

Videos!Check out our 4 videos showing the
Fire Island Hawk Watch, and Trends for Peregrines, Merlins,
and Kestrels!Look for photos of you, photos of the hawks, and videos of the hawks. Also, check out the trends. Are you correct to think that the PGs
are increasing? What about the Merlins? Are the Kestrels
really declining? If so, why? Here we discuss the trends relative to
ecology!