With a month to go…

NBC released a new national poll this morning that’s pretty consistent with the rest of the pack. It gives Clinton a six point lead over Trump, 46-40. It also shows Johnson at 9 and Stein at 3. We’re past the point at which Trump could hope to close the gap. There’s been no great wave of new white voters in PA, OH, WI or MI. Republicans have not consolidated around him. He’s shown no secret competence that he was hiding during the primaries. He’s toast.

So let’s play. How do think the final numbers fall?

With an assist from the friendly folks at 270towin.com Here’s what I think it probably looks like on the map:

We should expect that Trump will continue to flail. His behavior will grow more erratic and offensive as the outcome becomes unavoidable. With defeat certain, his veneer of winnerness is being stripped away. People who stuck with him because they thought they had to will start to flee their cages.

Today Trump is polling at about 40%, which is about where he’s been since May. He still has a pretty firm floor in the upper thirties.

Clinton has been hovering at 46-47. Obama went into the ’12 election polling at 48 and finished at 51. That swing was partly about undecided voters finally pulling the lever, but it had more to do with a built-in advantage in the Democratic coalition. Dems enjoy remarkably solid support in concentrated, heavily populated geographies. That leaves their Presidential candidates almost always underpolled in national surveys.

Also watch for some twisting in the third-party outcomes. Johnson will underperform his polling by a pretty big margin in important states like Colorado, North Carolina and Florida. He is likely to score big numbers in places like Texas and Georgia that aren’t supposed to be competitive as disgusted Republicans revolt. That may be enough to tip Georgia to Clinton, though probably not enough for Trump to lose Texas.

My guess is we get an ending like this:

Clinton 52%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

At those numbers nationally, Ohio and Iowa might still be close. If she only gets to 50% nationally she’ll probably lose those two states. Anything less than 53% nationally is probably too weak to flip Texas or Missouri. At my estimate for Clinton Democrats would probably pick up seven seats in the Senate, but fail to take the House.

We’ll see. Early voting has already started in a few places. It will be over soon. For that we can be grateful.

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Chris Ladd is a Texan living in the Chicago area. He has been involved in grassroots Republican politics for most of his life. He was a Republican precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago until he resigned from the party and his position after the 2016 Republican Convention. He can be reached at gopliferchicago at gmail dot com.

376 comments on “With a month to go…”

So, the leak from the DNC has an email with a staffer taking about potential problems with some of her paid speeches. The following one in particular interests me, because it highlights a fundamental bug/feature in democratic republics.

Here’s the quote.

“Clinton: “But If Everybody’s Watching, You Know, All Of The Back Room Discussions And The Deals, You Know, Then People Get A Little Nervous, To Say The Least. So, You Need Both A Public And A Private Position.”* CLINTON: You just have to sort of figure out how to — getting back to that word, “balance” — how to balance the public and the private efforts that are necessary to be successful, politically, and that’s not just a comment about today. That, I think, has probably been true for all of our history, and if you saw the Spielberg movie, Lincoln, and how he was maneuvering and working to get the 13th Amendment passed, and he called one of my favorite predecessors, Secretary Seward, who had been the governor and senator from New York, ran against Lincoln for president, and he told Seward, I need your help to get this done. And Seward called some of his lobbyist friends who knew how to make a deal, and they just kept going at it. I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody’s watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position. And finally, I think — I believe in evidence-based decision making. I want to know what the facts are. I mean, it’s like when you guys go into some kind of a deal, you know, are you going to do that development or not, are you going to do that renovation or not, you know, you look at the numbers. You try to figure out what’s going to work and what’s not going to work. [Clinton Speech For National Multi-Housing Council, 4/24/13]”

There are two things that interest me here. The bit about evidence based decision making and the need for “a public and a private position”.

This really interests me because it highlights the difference between a direct democracy and a republic. Government has long since passed the point where policy can be based on “common knowledge”. It’s a science in and itself. It’s not possible for the average person to understand all the evidence and base policy on it unless that person is specifically trained to do so. For example, a good health policy can’t come from your average doctor. It needs to come from a doctor who has specifically received public health training collaborating with economists and lawyers specializing in health. A republic works in this instance if the public representative has a team behind them. This, however, inevitably leads to some opaque dealing out of the public eye. The same happens with defence and national security. And sometimes, it can lead to consequences that are detrimental to the general public.

We, as the general public, are required judge and vote for a person based on their character, education, understanding of science and, most importantly, their intentions. You might think this is a bad situation. You might want things to be closer to a direct democracy and further from a Republic. That’s fine, but you would also have to explain how governance would work in a world in which there are a 100 or even a 1000 or more misinformed people for every single expert who has spent their entire life in the field – and every single adult is woefully misinformed on at least a few topics.

Oddly enough, thinking about those statements from that leak make me a bit more favorable to Clinton overall, but they also make me judge her a lot more harshly on having a private server which handled sensitive information.

Note that I’m not comparing her to Trump. Or Stein. Or even Johnson. I’m just trying to assess her independently.

Good thoughts, Pseudo. More people who are interested in politics need to run for office, or, at the very least, get closer to those who are in office. It is helpful to better understand what’s involved. Of course there are trade-offs – never on integrity, but it is how the process works. There is a public and private side of politics. That, in and of itself is not the problem. The problem occurs when politicians seek power for themselves or special interests/donors. That is when the line is crossed. I often reflect upon the words about governance that remind us that governing is best when it protects the least. Isnt’ that what democracy should be about?

Here’s a bromide from an unrepentent, clearly angry Trump about “dropping from the race”. Sunday night is going to be ugly.

I guess ppl will see what they want to see. To me, the biggest thing the exchange above says to me is that Hillary is a student of history, deeply understands the issues, has real and concrete policies, and takes the job seriously.

Evey human being alive has both a public and private persona. Ppl we deem “fake” are ones whose public persona is hugely different from their private one, but even the most “real” ppl out there will do/say things in private that they wouldn’t in public.

And this dynamic is doubly so for professional politicians. I don’t see her talking about these different personas as proof that Hillary specifically is, in any way, untrustworthy or “fake”.

Anybody who thinks that ANY politician doesn’t carefully thread the needle between their private and public faces at all times is a fool.

I lived among them for years and you are absolutely correct. Where a different public/private personna becomes problematic is when the two are extreme opposites or when there is an abusive situation. How many times have we seen a repentent politician charged with a crime or illicit sexual situation approach the mike holding his wife’s hand? Hillary did along with many others. I do not judge them but I have to say that I can’t say how I would react either. It was pointed out on tv that there are recent resignations from Congress for lessor sexual problems than those Trump engaged in. Yet, he’s gotten a pass.

The big problem here is that the Republican Party had both the time and the resources to research Trump and didn’t. They could have exposed him early on and allowed one of the other qualified primary candidates to advance. The GOPe has a lot of blood on their hands for what has come to pass. I remain convinced that they thought all along that this newly energized base that Trump inspired would win this for them. They were willing to take the chance they could control Trump if he got elected – just like they “controlled” Obama. Arrogance doesn’t become anyone. The GOPe deserve to be humiliated.

As digesting as this latest Trump reveal is, I can name at least 3 bigger disqualifiers:

1) The CIC issue- this is someone who said the obscene gestures merit a response of sinking ships, actually had to ask about why we don’t use nukes first, and is dangerously thin-skinned and lacking in self-control.

2)The questions about Russuan ties. Yes he’s said a few nice things about Putin. But the possibility that he owes Russia $ is very troubling and a major possible conflict of interest. He could alleviate these concerns by releasing recent tax returns, but he won’t.

3) His claims of business acumen. This is his major selling point – he’s rich and successful, so he’ll get the American economy roaring. But if you look closely at his business career, there a lot of smoke and mirrors and bullshit and bluster and a whole pile of inherited money and connections. He was good at milking the reality TV angle, you have to give him that, but he’s got all these fraud and nonpayment suits dogging him, and American banks won’t touch him.

Here’s a 4th one: his collosal level of ignorance about what’s going on on the world – see his post-Brexit press conference in Scotland as People’s exhibit A.

You know I will, Viking. I fully admit that Pres. Obama has made mistakes, but the qualities I admire most about him are his empathy and compassion, reasoned judgment, humor, forgiveness, strength, his words and his thoughts that lifted us up. He tried to always do the right thing even when he erred.

Just caught wind of Trump’s 2005 comments. Sorry I missed it… I was out doing something productive and useful with my life. Now I am back to discuss today’s awful/gross news.

So I have heard the commentary and listened to the audio. I distinctly remembered the “Grab the %@$$#” comment.

Yeah that has to be a presidential election first.

Though I shouldn’t be shocked by Trump’s behavior given his record over the past forever, I will say this…

My brain hasn’t stopped vomiting since 6pm.

Hey Mr. Ladd, kudos to you once more for giving the party your two week notice. You had ample justification to jump off a ship that was clearly searching for icebergs to collide into.

The GOP “War on Women” continues…

A presidential battle between one of the most successful female politicians in American History versus one of the most infamous misogynistic celebrities of the 21 first century.
Ladies, I am gonna go out on a limb and say this political choice is an easy call.

As a blogger on Politico.com put it so elegantly,

“Hillary may not be a shining star, but when compared to Trump she is a beacon of hope.”

“Though I shouldn’t be shocked by Trump’s behavior given his record over the past forever, I will say this…

My brain hasn’t stopped vomiting since 6pm”

Yup. I think almost everyone here probably expected, in the abstract, that Trump speaks like this in private, because every indication is that he really IS a misogynistic piece of human garbage. But you can not be surprised by something and yet still shocked by it. Actually hearing those words from a presidential candidate – even one as boorish as Trump – is shocking. Even keeping in mind the “Teflon Don” thing that Trump seems to have had going so far, this is devastating, and it’s impossible to imagine this is anything other then the death blow to his campaign.

That’s a pretty common fallacy, FV, but it’s a dangerous one. The “he didn’t need to rape because lota of women want to have sex with him” is totally erroneous.

Rape is not at all about sex or getting laid, and entirely about power, and forcing someone else to submit to your will. Penile penetration is typical, but not because the rapist is aroused, but solely because it is the most personal, degrading intrusion the rapist can inflict. It’s why prison rapists are almost invariably straight, and why men get raped far more then is commonly though. The rapists are not just getting their rocks off: they are imposing their will and dominating another human, and THATS what gets them off.

So all these GOPers are SHOCKED!! OUTRAGED!! over disgusting comments Trump made 11 years ago. Give me an effing break! You KNEW what he was. He never hid it. He’s been openly and unapologetically profane pretty much his whole adult life. Are you shocked and outraged enough to withdraw your endorsements?? No? Then STFU and spare us your insincere outrage.

As one female commentator said: the Republican Party is not a whole lot different than Trump regarding treatment of women. Trump insults/gropes his women one at a time, whereas the Republican Party passes laws and regulations that deprive and hurt women in huge numbers. So, you’re right – they’re embarrassed but they’re all part of this same mindset that as men, they control what happens to women.

Another point, this studio that released this video has announced it has many, many more tapes like this one they can release.

If this was the Clinton campaign’s doing, give credit where credit was due. This was an absolutely merciless piece of political strategy and you know there’s far more where this came from.

They’re not reconciled to the presidency and the Senate. They want to bury Trump in an avalanche so steep that they take it all in November, the House included. If this keeps up, they may just get their wish.

If I were Trump, the campaign is the least of my worries. I’m now worried about my very financial survival.

His campaign has been so toxic, so ugly, so disturbing, and his core business (licensing his name) has to be hurt immeasurably by this whole charade. His whole brand banks heavily on glamour, luxury, and status. I can’t imagine there are tons of ppl with the means to stay in his buildings that are also willing to do so.

We know he loves debt and he is almost certainly highly leveraged. If revenues start dropping and payments don’t get made, depending on how leveraged he is, he could be in very serious trouble.

His kids are probably getting that sinking feeling in the pit of their stomachs now that this could be very, very bad for the nest egg they all assumed theyd one day get.

I have a more pedestrian concern. What will happen as to the election outcome if let’s say Trump were to withdraw or he is fired by the GOP? I’m worried that if a more reasonable person comes forward, Paul Ryan maybe, he may actually win?

I’ve been listening to MSNBC to see if I could learn “how” this could be done….constitutionally at this juncture. The GOP isn’t worried about winning the presidency as much as they are keeping the Senate. Since early voting is underway in many states, ballots are printed, etc., the easiest thing might be to let Trump lose and focus on Senate. After all, as I have said ad nausea, the Senate is more critical to the GOP than is the presidency. Paul Ryan stated he can use a parliamentary procedure that allows majority rule to pass his “A Better Way” budget which essentially gives the republican party all it wants – without needing the president from their party.

I think this is going to really hurt the GoP down ballot. Thisbhas to be deeply demoralizing to millions of ppl who would never vote for Hillary. Those ppl will probably just stay home, which will really hurt the down ballot.

If you want to see how the other half live, turn on FOX, Sean Hannity, whose treatment of this is unbelievable. Hannity….”People are ‘feigning’ shock like they never heard these words before…and on, and on…It was educational. Tune in.

Donald Trump is reportedly filming a statement that will go out to all news media about this incident.

I truly don’t belong to the crowd who think like Sean Hannity. I can’t even understand where they are coming from. And, of course, I completely disagree. They are excusing Trump’s words because it was “in private”, he didn’t know he was being recorded…just “guy talk”…

@RobA: >] I think this is going to really hurt the GoP down ballot. Thisbhas to be deeply demoralizing to millions of ppl who would never vote for Hillary. Those ppl will probably just stay home, which will really hurt the down ballot.”

It really is. Republicans were already tearing themselves apart, but this has just sent them spiraling into utter chaos; some disavowing Trump entirely, others now openly calling for a replacement at the top of the ticket, others trying to defend him. It’s a f’ing mess.

Ryan, agreed. Think ofnthe pickle the GOP senators are in: if you don’t categorically enounce Trump now, you will be beaten mercilessly in ad after ad after ad from now until then. If you DO denounce Trump clearly and explicitly – as Chaffetz did, quickly, to his credit – then you can expect to lose enough hardcore Trumpsters enraged at your PC weakness that, if you’re in a remotely close race, you’ll probably lose.

It’s quite the conundrum, and one entirely of their own making. If you decide to bring rattlesnakes to bed, you shouldn’t be too shocked if you wake up with a fatal bite. And when you do, whose fault is it? Yours or the snakes? Tough to blame the snake for being what it is and doing what it does.

“Hannity….”People are ‘feigning’ shock like they never heard these words before…and on, and on…It was educational. Tune in.”

Mime, it’s disgusting isn’t it? Really shows how immoral some of these ppl are. What would he say if Trump murdered someone? “You ppl and yiur feigned outrage….you’d think you’d never heard of murder before!”

No, you idiot, nobody is “outraged” that these words exist, or that they were said by somebody somewhere. They’re outraged that these words are coming from a presidential candidate, and outraged that a scumbag like this could potentially be the representative for the American ppl on the world stage.

>] “Ryan, agreed. Think ofnthe pickle the GOP senators are in: if you don’t categorically enounce Trump now, you will be beaten mercilessly in ad after ad after ad from now until then. If you DO denounce Trump clearly and explicitly – as Chaffetz did, quickly, to his credit – then you can expect to lose enough hardcore Trumpsters enraged at your PC weakness that, if you’re in a remotely close race, you’ll probably lose.”

It’s not just Senate Republicans. This is precisely the kind of situation that makes gerrymandering such a terrible double-edged sword for House Republicans. With more moderate, competitive districts, a Republican could renounce Trump and try to draw over Independent and Democratic votes. Not to say they’d win of course, but there’d at least be a path. With the rigged ones we have now, the only Republicans that can do that are those in solidly red districts.

Expect Democrats to come down with the fury of a thousand suns on every House Republican in a +1, +2 or even +3 or +4 district in the country. They’re stuck with no way out. If they renounce Trump, they offend his supporters and if they don’t, they lose the Republican-leaning Independents and women they need to win.

Getting Trump to step down and deciding on a nominee with less than two months to go and who still has all the built in disadvantages of the GOP and being associated with Donald Trump, and so little time to campaign? And the person who steps forward and loses would have little hope of winning the GOP primary in 2020, which would likely be a better time to run? I’m not too worried about it.

To that point, GOP legal advisor Ben Ginsberg, discussed “how” this process “could” work…it would require a nation-wide write in which would be difficult because many states are all electronic with no provision for write ins. Again, the more important issue is the Senate. This is what will receive the greatest focus. They can live without the presidency. No one on the GOP side thinks they will win the presidency, they are all fixed on down ballot races – esp. the Senate.

But then the faction of the Republican Party that believes Muslims are going to eat our brains, 9/11 was an inside job, and Breitbart is a serious news outlet won’t even bother to come out to vote if they think Trump was pushed out and now they have to show up to write in a more garden-variety wingnut ala Mike Pence. They are screwed either way.

If, by some unbelievably small chance that actually did happen, Republicans would absolutely throw not just the presidency, but control of both the House and Senate to the Democrats.

Make no mistake, Trump’s supporters, of which there are millions, would be irreparably outraged and many of them would not show up to vote in November. That is precisely why Paul Ryan and so many others have suffered Trump through every disgrace, humiliation and outrage that would’ve sunk any other nominee. They couldn’t and can’t afford to offend his voters.

I’ll tell you who is really breathing more easily – Clinton – the Wikileaks dump tonight of her hacked speech notes and more emails released by the FBI…(none of which that I have read contain any major surprises or scandals, but we all know how things can be spun…)

Clinton will ride that strategy all the way to November. Save for a truly bombshell reveal, her campaign can release unbelievably offensive video after video of Trump (and you know they have them) that will drown out any lukewarm Wikileaks dump.

I normally do not enjoy watching Lawrence O’Donnell (MSNBC), but he was live for almost an hour and a half and did a great job, as did his staff in bringing in by phone key people (Mark Halpern, Mike Murphy, Jason Chaffetz, Ben Ginsberg, and more) who fleshed this thing out.

The Trump 90 second “apology” was a mess. As noted, he is basically going to go into the Sunday night debate with all guns blazing. Bill Clinton will be in his cross hairs (if he’s going down for philandering, so is Willy), and that witch of a wife – Hillary – is gonna get hers, too.

Well, guess we’ll have another night of stratospheric tv ratings….I hope more videos are released between now and then. He needs to be brought to his knees…no, bad choice of words…he needs to be crushed. I cannot fathom the evangelical wing of the party looking past this even with his non-apology…especially if more videos keep coming out. It’s kind of weird/funny that a man who lives for his image, trades off of it, thinks of himself as the king of the stage, is being humbled by a production company archive tell-all. The irony is rich.

Hillary Clinton, during her speech to Goldman Sachs, not only predicted this election being a shitshow, but also the rise of the “bucket of losers” and the danger of an outsider, crazy person candidate winning (as well as the probability that the Republicans are now lost to the world):

He can’t get off the ballot at this point. He also cannot be officially replaced. In a strict technical sense, the GOP could leverage Rule 9 to select a new nominee after he dropped out. However, there 6 or 8 states where the ballot deadline has already passed. In practical terms there is absolutely no way for the new candidate to get on ballots nationwide. And that’s only if Trump voluntarily stepped down.

If Trump refused to step down, the GOP could try to use Rule 9, but the litigation over that could continue until the next election.

There’s no way out. And no one gets to act surprised. He was spewing vile, unhinged rhetoric starting with the speech that launched his campaign. Not sure why this one incident is supposed to change things.

What about write in candidates as Ginsberg said is “possible” even though very difficult. Like what Lisa Murkowski was able to do in ALaska. Mike Murphy is talking to Lawrence O’Donnell that Trump might prefer to remove his name rather than face a humiliating loss.

Came across this fine article in The Guardian. It speaks about Ferguson, MO and some of the young black leaders emerging from that city. It is interesting in many ways and speaks to the frustration from the black community members who don’t have a lot of faith in any politicians…

And, lest I forget. One of the other heinous comments Trump made today was that he still felt the 5 young men charged with in the beating/rape in central park were guilty…They were exonerated by DNA evidence and the real criminal is now in jail. That didn’t stop Trump from lashing out at them now, years after they have been cleared after serving time in jail for a crime they didn’t commit. At the time, Trump took out a full page ad and pushed for these men to be convicted. Even today, he cannot apologize for ruining their lives and continues to double down on his opinions which have been disproved. The man has no shame.

I think your map is a bit optimistic, but it is hard to tell for sure. 538 suggests right now that Trump is still ahead in Georgia, all of Nebraska, and possibly one of Maine’s districts (though that is very uncertain, as there is sharply limited polling there). Missouri has Trump pretty well ahead.

Your map is optimistic, but not wholly unrealistic; I’d probably say there’s about a 20% chance of seeing a map like that.

That said, it is still a month before the election; Trump is very likely going to lose, but I’m not sure how much further his support is going to erode. If he keeps getting hammered all month the way he has for the last few weeks, he could lose more ground.

>] That said, it is still a month before the election; Trump is very likely going to lose, but I’m not sure how much further his support is going to erode. If he keeps getting hammered all month the way he has for the last few weeks, he could lose more ground.”

All depends on where his floor is. Trump’s been hemorrhaging college-educated whites all along, and if Clinton can get roughly in the low-fifties of their support, that’s enough to put states like Arizona, Georgia and even Texas in play. Question is just how far he falls with non-college educated whites, his pillar of support.

Recent polling suggests him having around roughly 60% support. Say that number drops just by two or three points. Just that small swing is enough to put Indiana, Mississippi, S. Carolina, Missouri and even potentially Nebraska in play, which if recent polling as Chris just mentioned, is correct, then we could well be entering said territory.

This HRC ad just dropped. “I’m with Her” has major ad buys in all of the swing states. I’m not sure it was necessary since the cable news stations run it every 20 minutes. Direct appeal to women…make sure your the reason he won’t be president…

Paul Ryan announced that Trump will not be attending the WI event with him tomorrow.

“House Speaker Paul Ryan said he is “sickened” by Donald Trump’s 2005 comments about women, and the Republican presidential nominee will no longer attend an event with the speaker in Wisconsin on Saturday.
“Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified,” Ryan said in a statement Friday night. “I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests.”

Not my place to question insiders’ opinions on the matter, but FiveThirtyEight has Trump leading by low single digits in the state. With the right turnout operation and Republican disgust at Trump in the state, Clinton has a real shot to carry it.

At this point Trump can’t officially step down. Ballots are already printed and mailed in many cases. He can promise to resign, or to refuse to take the oath, which would then make Pence president if Trump-Pence won. It wouldn’t be an enforceable promise though.

I disagree, Fair Economist. I think this is much worse than other statements. It’s how it occurred – behind closed doors (but def Trump), and the coarseness of the comments directed at women…affirming all our worst thoughts about him. It may not matter with his base, but I’ll bet it matters more broadly and it will hurt him. Imagine preparing for a national debate Sunday “knowing” this will come up…he can apologize, excuse all he wants, this is beyond the pale.

You can be sure the Clinton campaign already has Trump’s comments ready in their coming ad blitz as we head into the final weeks. She’s going to ram those words down his throat right up until Election Day. Can’t say I’d do any different.

You know, Trump asked for this. First , by saying and doing these things (and getting away with it at the time), and second, by flaunting how impervious he is to criticism…Remember his remarks that he could shoot someone and get away with it? The way he spoke to the other GOP primary candidates?

I don’t feel sorry for him one bit. I do feel sorry for his daughters and grandchildren. Melania clearly knew what she was getting….

Well its on every news station, the tape plays in a loop. CNN interrupted Hurricane coverage since 6:00pm MSNBC has shifted their coverage as well….everyone speculating whether Paul Ryan will appear with him tomorrow in Wisconsin as planned. Reince is quiet…maybe looking for more Baileys to put on his corn flakes. Even for the Donald, this is disgusting, predatory language…not just locker room banter. How do evangelicals tell their kids they are alright with this language and behavior?

He has dared them…Just wish they had started earlier so we could have had a substantive campaign on the issues….not sure Clinton would have won but we’ll never know. She handles herself very well on policy discussions…

MSNBC analyst, Joy Reid, just ripped Michelle Bachman…..who was defending Trump against this “nuisance” !! She took her down. I am so glad Bachman was voted out of office. She is certifiable. I love Joy Reid…she doesn’t get enough credit for her political acumen. She’s blunt and very articulate. Try to watch her when you can. Especially this program (Chris Matthews…who I usually don’t watch because I’m not a Matthews fan, but I am a Reid fan.)