Murray McCully Speech: The Arab Spring

The protest movements that
have swept through the Middle East and Northern Africa since
December last year have collectively overturned the
landscape of the Arab world.

Some have said that the
impact of the Arab Spring on world affairs is on par with
the fall of the Berlin Wall.

So what has changed?

At
the big picture level, there is widespread support for
genuine democratic and economic reform.

We are operating
in an environment where old assumptions are no longer valid.

There is a new awareness that leaders cannot afford to be
complacent about large sections of their populations who
feel their future is hopeless.

What is not clear is what
the new order will be.

Today's conference is a timely
opportunity to stop and think about the impact these changes
might have on New Zealand's interests and on our engagement
with partners.

It's fair to say that no-one predicted
that a 27 year old street vendor setting himself on fire
last December would trigger a movement that led to the fall
of the Tunisian government only a few weeks later.

When
that unrest spilled over into neighbouring Egypt, resulting
in the fall of Mubarak, the world truly took notice.

The
seismic shift in Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, sent
ripples into the entire region.

To Egypt's West, Libya
then descended into a state of civil war.

Algeria and
Morocco have come through periods of unrest and are now
embarking on a series of limited reforms.

To Egypt's
east, Shi'a/Sunni tensions were exacerbated to the point
that troops from other GCC countries were sent into Bahrain,
and the Yemeni President has been forced to leave the
country, leaving Yemen with an uncertain political future.

Thrown into this turbulent mix, we have Islamic suspicion
of Western intervention, the Arab and Israeli perception of
threat from Iran, and stalled bilateral negotiations between
Israel and Palestine.

Why has this happened?

We can
find the same drivers across the region: a young
demographic, high unemployment, widespread dissatisfaction
with ruling elites, economic disenfranchisement, and access
to new social media.

However, we may never be able to
explain how those drivers converged such that the fear
barrier was broken, leading to the toppling of multiple
authoritarian leaders within months; in some cases, weeks.

What we do know is that we are now dealing with a series
of very different leadership models and high expectations
for a better future.

While elites remain unchanged in
many countries, Arab leaders will have to become more
responsive to their people.

And economic enfranchisement,
human rights and democracy will be part of the future
trajectory of the region.

As will resistance to those
changes from those on the extremes.

Events in the Arab
region have implications for countries as far away as New
Zealand.

The changes present opportunities, but there are
risks - we should not be naïve about that.

While there
are new governments in place, it will take commitment and
tenacity to create genuine and sustainable democracies.

Taking a positive view, we have an unprecedented
opportunity to work with Arab and international partners to
promote development, democracy and modernisation.

Tunisia
and Egypt offer real opportunities for political, social and
economic reforms.

But we know the transition to democracy
will not be straight-forward.

It will require the new
governments and leaders to act constructively in the
interests of their people.

And it will require the people
to use their new-found freedoms responsibly and to be
realistic in their expectations.

And we need to be
realistic that the increased uncertainty in the political
landscape may have dangerous implications for regional
security.

Collectively, we cannot allow events elsewhere
in the region to soften our resolve on other pressing
issues, such as Iran's nuclear programme.

And the
international community needs to ensure that its response to
the Arab uprisings is not detracting attention from the
Middle East Peace Process at the very time when a resolution
to this conflict is most urgent.

Taking stock of the
implications of the Arab Spring for New Zealand, we can now
assert a number of conclusions:

Of course our immediate
concerns in response to the unrest in the region were
consular.

The Embassy in Cairo worked 24 hour shifts
ensuring that about 200 people wanting to leave Cairo and 35
wanting to leave Libya were successfully evacuated.

We
are especially grateful to the British, Canadians and
Americans, who provided invaluable consular assistance under
very difficult circumstances.

So we can be pleased that
New Zealand's response to the immediate challenge was
handled well.

Our current assessment is that our major
trading markets in the region are largely unaffected by
recent turmoil.

That said, we have been negatively
affected by the closure of several medium-sized markets,
such as those in Yemen and Libya worth about $50m each.

And there is still reason for concern on two fronts:

If EU dairy markets in the region are disrupted, then EU
product could be diverted onto the global market, depressing
global dairy prices.

Clearly this is something New
Zealand exporters will need to continue to watch.

Equally, the EU and other partners may seek to support
the transition process in Egypt and Tunisia by putting
preferential trade arrangements in place.

This, together
with other assistance they are offering, may affect New
Zealand's market share or market access.

So that is
something we'll be dealing with over the next few weeks and
months. However, it is the longer term implications that I
want to focus on today.

The Arab Spring came at a time
when our engagement with the Middle East and North Africa
was growing.

Take the Gulf area as an example.

New
Zealand has significant commercial and political interests
in the GCC states, underpinned by significant expatriate
populations.

The GCC represents New Zealand's seventh
largest market for goods, taking $1.2 billion of New Zealand
products in the year to December 2010.

8,000 Gulf
Students are currently studying in New Zealand. Eight of
Fonterra's top 30 global markets are in the Arab region.

We are within a hair's breadth of concluding an FTA with the
GCC which is hung-up on the bilateral issue of live sheep
exports to Saudi Arabia.

But our relationship with the
Gulf is not just about trade.

We have real political
relationships in the region which we need to take to the
next level.

For example, the United Arab Emirates, the
only place in which we opened a new post last year, is an
increasingly important partner on a number of fronts.

Amongst other initiatives, we are currently exploring
joint development projects in third countries, which could
be a model for our engagement with others in the region. In
Egypt, we are engaging with civil and political
institutions, in niche areas such as electoral support.

We are supporting the economic development agenda of
Egypt's interim government.

And we are engaged in an
agricultural development project in Egypt's North Western
desert to convert mine-cleared land into productive
pastures, crops and orchards.

New Zealand has lent its
support to the UN resolutions on Libya.

There are
differing views in the international community about the
enforcement of those resolutions, but it is fair to say
there would not have been a lot of point in a resolution
without teeth.

It was telling that the Arab League,
amongst others, was supportive of some form of action.

We
have been monitoring developments closely and I have in
recent weeks asked our Ambassador to Cairo to visit Benghazi
to see how we might best engage with the Transitional
National Council.

These examples illustrate the point
that though small, New Zealand can make practical
contributions in specialised areas.

Turning to the region
as a whole, there is a significantly changed political
landscape.

On balance the glass looks half full in
respect of Egypt, Bahrain and Tunisia.

But we only have
to look at what's happening in Libya, Syria and Yemen, and
the glass looks half empty.

Just over the past weekend
over 100 people were reportedly killed in the streets of
Hama.

Importantly, beyond those regimes, we need to
factor Palestine and Iran into the dynamic.

A key part of
this equation of regional security is how the international
community deals with the Middle East Peace Process.

The
unresolved conflict between Israel and its neighbours
remains a significant trigger of unrest in the region.

In
the wake of the Arab Spring, the changing regional dynamics
make the need to resolve this conflict even more pressing.

And to ensure that the constructive Palestinian voices of
moderation prevail, we need to see progress now.

It is my
firm view that resolving a basis for a two-state solution
can only be achieved by getting the two parties into direct
talks.

We also need stable regional players committed to
that settlement if it is to endure, lest the unrest in
neighbouring countries provide a cover for continued
violence.

Egypt is playing a crucial role in mending the
fracture between Gaza and the West Bank, and in the
negotiations between Israel and the oPt; so it's important
that the new government in Egypt is able to maintain these
brokering roles.

Sitting behind these developments is the
issue of Palestinian statehood.

This will find its way
into the UN General Assembly in September this year if
another solution is not forthcoming.

Taking the issue to
the United Nations General Assembly to seek an imposed
resolution is less than ideal.

For a start it will
not work, because such an initiative will attract a veto in
the Security Council.

And such a strategy, designed
to isolate Israel and some supporters, clearly risks
rendering direct negotiations even more difficult to
achieve.

However, in the absence of a credible
process to advance discussions directly between the parties,
the UN resolution process will remain attractive to the
Palestinian side.

I have been very clear that New
Zealand will study the actual words contained in any such
resolution before deciding how we should deal with it.

We have not ruled out voting for such a resolution,
despite the wishes of some of our good friends.

Our
relationships with both Israel and the Palestinian Authority
are good.

We are one of a small number of countries
trusted by both sides.

That is a deliberate position.

We pride ourselves on being fair minded and even
handed.

That is the character of our voting record in
multilateral institutions.

On the Palestinian side we
are providing support for the state building efforts of
Prime Minister Fayyad.

We are also formalising
regular Foreign Ministry dialogue with the Palestinian
Authority.

And we have just finalised plans to take a
leadership role in a de- mining programme with the United
Nations Mine Action Service, now supported by other donors,
designed to free up many hectares of West Bank land
otherwise capable of agricultural production.

These
are small but symbolic steps of constructive engagement.

On the Israeli side, our conscious effort to re-balance
the relationship has seen a reopening of their embassy in
Wellington after an eight year absence.

They know
that we understand their need for a guarantee of security as
part of any settlement.

And they know that we
understand the need for a firm international position on
Iran's nuclear ambitions as part of that improved regional
security environment.

So we can clearly say that we
enjoy good, constructive relations with both parties.

Over recent weeks I have directly urged representatives
of both Israel and the Palestinian Authority to find their
own basis for direct discussions to establish the ground
rules for two states to co-exist peacefully, side-by-side.

It's fair to say many of us are deeply frustrated by the
current situation.

The most frustrating aspect of the
current stalemate is that, broadly speaking, the parties are
not that far apart.

During my visits to the oPt and
Israel, the various actors were talking in almost identical
terms, about settling on the 1967 borders, plus or minus
landswaps of 4-5 or 6%, with appropriate buffer zones.

The very clear impression I received in those engagements
and in talking to Quartet Representative Tony Blair last
week is that if we can get the parties to the table we
should be able to get a deal.

New Zealand is ready to
support a negotiated process where we can.

Clearly,
maintaining a security zone would be a precondition of any
settlement acceptable to Israel.

We have supported peace
between Israel and Egypt in the Sinai since 1982, through
our support of the MFO operation.

In fact, a New Zealand
General currently heads the MFO operation.

We have made a
firm offer to support any operation that might maintain a
buffer zone between Israel and Palestine as part of a
negotiated settlement, and both sides have made it clear
that they would want us to be there.

At this point, you
might ask why I am so focused on this issue within the
context of the Arab Spring.

The situation in the oPt is a
fuse that is capable of igniting an entire regional
conflagration.

We simply cannot afford to let
developments in the wider Arab region divert much needed
attention away from the urgent need to resume meaningful
negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

In conclusion, Ladies and Gentlemen, whilst the Arab
Spring may seem distant from New Zealand, the reality is
that it directly affects us more than many New Zealanders
may think - strategically, politically, economically and
socially.

We can't afford to lose ground in the region,
particularly at a time when its importance to us is growing.
I believe that there are sufficient positives to make early
investment in the region worthwhile for New Zealand on many
fronts.

We will play our part in international efforts to
maintain pressure on the Gaddafi and Assad regimes to
prevent atrocities against civilians.

We will continue to
support outcomes that allow populations to express their
democratic voice.

We will continue to support real
economic reforms and sustainable development.

And we will
maintain our niche contributions to regional security.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am optimistic that the Arab
Spring can deliver lasting and positive change to the
region.

Will it ultimately deliver on the aspirations of
the Arab people?

I am confident it can.

But this
transition process will not be straightforward.

We cannot
take the changes for granted.

Across the region events
are changing quickly, in some cases taking the international
community into unknown territory.

Our challenge is to be
clear about how to support the positive changes and at the
same time to manage the significant inherent risks.

In response to the challenges facing Scoop and the media industry we’ve instituted an Ethical Paywall to keep the news freely available to the public.
People who use Scoop for work need to be licensed through a ScoopPro subscription under this model, they also get access to exclusive news tools.

It would be nice to think Parliament was a forum where rationality ruled – and where policies are raised and evaluated in terms of their contribution to the greater good. Obviously, it isn’t like that... More>>

ALSO:

Child Poverty Action Group is pleased to see the Government set ambitious 10-year targets for child poverty reduction, but we are disappointed not to see a target set for improving thousands of young lives where the worst of poverty is found. More>>

ALSO:

New Zealand is a world leader in government algorithm use – but measures are needed to guard against their dangers. This is the conclusion of a New Zealand Law Foundation-funded report from the University of Otago’s Artificial Intelligence and Law in New Zealand Project. More>>

The NZ Transport Agency has released plans for its preferred option for a shared path over the Auckland Harbour Bridge which will transform walking and cycling not only across the harbour, but throughout the city. The Transport Agency says its preferred ... More>>

Wellington:

Madam Speaker, today we begin the task of amending the Climate Change Response Act [2002], to fulfil the commitment that we have made, as a country, to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. More>>

The Crown underwrite for unsold Kiwibuild homes has been triggered for a second time. Now lack of sales in Mike Greer's development in Canterbury and Auckland means the government has had to buy back seven more homes. More>>