I've been watching models closely and it looks like we may have our first shot of an organized severe weather potential in this crappy year so far.

The NAM and GFS are both in agreement that a shortwave trough will traverse the great lakes, however differ slightly in terms of actual track. The NAM has the low progged to travel more North than does the GFS, this would give us a better warm sector and would be ideal.

NAM model soundings show decent CAPE for most of S ON although target regions seem to be Barrie area East to Kawartha Lakes/Peterborough region where the shear seems to be a bit better. Niagara region seems good too.

NAM 3k shows storm initiation just West of GTA area, growing into a squall-line in the Peterborough area.

Thoughts?

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Mesocyclone97 For This Useful Post:

No surprise that Eastern Ontario has the best shot for severe weather. It's been like that for the last few years from what I've observed.

These recent days have been nice for the slow moving pop up storms. Kitchener-Waterloo was hit pretty hard by flooding rain and small hail on Tuesday and parts of Cambridge may have been hit by a downburst yesterday along with flooding rain and small hail. Today is pretty much the same conditions for the 4th day in a row, and the storms are moving directly from the south too!

The last couple days here right around 4pm the storm cells have been building up - nice dark bases, towering updrafts. We've had rain and some thunder/lightning throughout the week but nothing spectacular.

I see a tornado warning was issued for some area yesterday. Not sure if anything came of it.

Timing is key for me...when to leave work to get in place for some shots? 😃. And, do you try and chase around Barrie on the Friday of a long weekend? I have never chased in the Niagara area. Is that decent chase territory (i.e. Flat and open not so hilly and treed)?

Southern Niagara is pretty flat, but as soon as you get into the Northern Part, you hit the escarpment which is basically nothing but hills and trees, though it tends to get better storms. I would stay south of the escarpment if you want good chasing. The northeastern shore of Lake Erie will be best for spotting storms anyway because they'll be moving in from the south.

Timing is key for me...when to leave work to get in place for some shots? 😃. And, do you try and chase around Barrie on the Friday of a long weekend? I have never chased in the Niagara area. Is that decent chase territory (i.e. Flat and open not so hilly and treed)?

Niagara in general is not good for chasing: you have Lake Ontario blocking you to the north, Lake Erie blocking you in the south, the Niagara River (and USA) blocking you to the east. If the storm is already *in* Niagara, then fine. But if you plan on actually chasing a moving storm, Niagara is probably the worst place a storm chaser wants to be.

AT 3:25 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT IS POSSIBLY PRODUCING A TORNADO. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A POTENTIAL TORNADO APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST IN THE VICINITY OF MIDLAND. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 60
KM/H.

TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY, IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. IF YOU
HEAR A ROARING SOUND OR SEE A FUNNEL CLOUD, SWIRLING DEBRIS NEAR THE
GROUND, FLYING DEBRIS, OR ANY THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHING, TAKE
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

GO INDOORS TO A ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR, AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS
AND WINDOWS, SUCH AS A BASEMENT, BATHROOM, STAIRWELL OR INTERIOR
CLOSET. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES, VEHICLES, TENTS, TRAILERS AND OTHER
TEMPORARY OR FREE-STANDING SHELTER, AND MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING IF
YOU CAN. AS A LAST RESORT, LIE IN A LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOUR HEAD
FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN IMMINENT OR OCCURRING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OR ARE PRODUCING TORNADOES.

THE OFFICE OF THE FIRE MARSHAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDS
THAT YOU TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, SEND AN EMAIL TO
EC.CPIO-TEMPETES-OSPC-STORMS.EC(AT)CANADA.CA OR TWEET REPORTS USING
(HASH)ONSTORM.

AT 3:29 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT IS POSSIBLY PRODUCING A TORNADO. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE
COVER IMMEDIATELY, IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. IF YOU HEAR A
ROARING SOUND OR SEE A FUNNEL CLOUD, SWIRLING DEBRIS NEAR THE
GROUND, FLYING DEBRIS, OR ANY THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHING, TAKE
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

GO INDOORS TO A ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR, AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS
AND WINDOWS, SUCH AS A BASEMENT, BATHROOM, STAIRWELL OR INTERIOR
CLOSET. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES, VEHICLES, TENTS, TRAILERS AND OTHER
TEMPORARY OR FREE-STANDING SHELTER, AND MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING IF
YOU CAN. AS A LAST RESORT, LIE IN A LOW SPOT AND PROTECT YOUR HEAD
FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN IMMINENT OR OCCURRING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OR ARE PRODUCING TORNADOES.

THE OFFICE OF THE FIRE MARSHAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDS
THAT YOU TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, SEND AN EMAIL TO
EC.CPIO-TEMPETES-OSPC-STORMS.EC(AT)CANADA.CA OR TWEET REPORTS USING
(HASH)ONSTORM.