DFS Three And Out 2016 week 18

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
As MLive.com's Kyle Meinke pointed out this week, the Seahawks can't run the ball consistently and their offensive line is playing poorly. But what they do have is Wilson. He is their key, and stopping him is Detroit's. The problem is, the Lions have had issues defending mobile quarterbacks like Wilson, including two weeks ago with Dak Prescott and again last Sunday night with Aaron Rodgers. Those two combined for 42 of 59 passing (71.2 percent) for 512 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 77 yards rushing on 14 carries while a Detroit defense that had held each of its previous eight opponents to fewer than 21 points was pounded for 73. Overall, ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein points out the Lions set an NFL record this season by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7 percent of passes against them. And if pass protection is a concern, it helps that the Lions produced pressure on just 19.8 percent of their opponents' dropbacks, the worst percentage in the NFL. Detroit's sack percentage (4.6) ranked 29th. Despite working through three injuries this year, Wilson still completed 64.7 percent of his passes while averaging 7.73 yards per attempt with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His favorite targets -- Doug Baldwin (94 catches, 1,128 yards, seven touchdowns) and Jimmy Graham (65 catches, 923 yards, six touchdowns) -- both had great seasons and will present matchup problems the Lions will have problems solving, In addition, as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld pointed out, Wilson has been much better at home in 2016 (20.9 fantasy points per game vs. 15.6 on the road). So the chances for a solid day at a reasonable price ($7,000 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel). I will note that Eli Manning's price on FanDuel ($6,100) is pretty darned appealing as well.

Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants
As ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan noted earlier this week, the Giants running game showed signs of life with Perkins inserted as the starter. He had 44 yards on seven carries in the first quarter against Washington and finished with 102 yards rushing. Raanan went on to suggest that given the way things have unfolded and the progress Perkins has made -- he's increased his yardage total each of the past six games and shown improvement with his blocking -- it's hard to imagine he won't be starting against the Packers. Starter or not, the uptick in production is a clear trend. Perkins has finished with more rushing yards than previous starter Rashad Jennings in the last three weeks. The Packers are the eighth-best squad in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 94.7 yards per game, but Perkins (and fellow halfback Rashad Jennings) are capable enough receivers (even if that's not their primary role). Given the increasing workload and pricing ($4,100 on DraftKings and $5,900 FanDuel), Perkins will appear in more than a few of my tournament lineups.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins
As the Sports Xchange noted, Steelers rookie cornerback Artie Burns is going to have his hands full against Landry, who finished the season with 94 catches for 1,136 yards. The Steelers’ pass defense has been susceptible at times this season, and Burns has been beaten for some big plays. With the Steelers focusing on stopping Jay Ajayi and the Dolphins’ running game, this matchup on the outside will be a big key. Worth noting, while Landry has never been viewed as a big scoring threat (with just 13 touchdowns in three seasons as a pro), he has scored twice in the last three games -- all with Matt Moore in at quarterback for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Moore will start again this week. Part of the appeal here, of course, is the possibility that Miami will be playing from behind against a Steelers offense that's been especially potent at home. In fact, as ESPN's Scott Kacsmar suggested this week, "Landry makes for a great pairing with Le’Veon Bell because of his price and the likelihood that if Bell does well as expected, the Dolphins will be forced to funnel more targets in Landry’s direction." Makes sense. And the price ($5,100 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel) is right.

I'm Out

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
As the Sports Xchange noted, the Packers offense starts and ends with Rodgers, who has simply been on fire during his team's six-game winning streak. Over that stretch, Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns, zero interceptions and has logged a 121.0 passer rating. But it's not just Rodgers' arm that the Giants defense need to be worried about. Rodgers also finished as the Packers' second leading rusher behind Ty Montgomery, recording 369 yards on 67 carries. Still, it should be noted that Rodgers had a season-high 22 incompletions against the Giants in Week 5, including two interceptions. And as Kacsmar pointed out, New York's No. 2 defense is the highest ranked among the playoff field, and they've made a habit of winning close, low-scoring games this season. The Giants' cornerbacks have done a solid job this season with limiting the opposition's top receivers' total yardage. This week, Janoris Jenkins, the leader of the pack, is coming off a back injury which, as of Tuesday, was leaving him still sore. But he stifled Jordy Nelson in that first meeting. Nelson had only four receptions for 38 yards in a game-high 13 targets, and Jenkins had both interceptions of Rodgers. Meanwhile, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie led the NFC with six interceptions this season, including four in the last three games. Strong safety Landon Collins was right behind with five picks. And yes, I'm going to great lengths to explain why I'm fading the most dangerous QB in the NFL over the last month and a half. But in the end, it's not so much they I don't like Rodgers; it's more that I don't like the price ($7,900 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel). He's the most expensive quarterback on both the major sites, but that won't keep him from being heavily owned (did I mention he's coming off a very impressive six-game streak?) and I just prefer the value found in other QBs (like Wilson, Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and [because he's dirt cheap and I'm a total cheapskate] Matt Moore.