European stocks are forecast to start Tuesday’s session modestly firmer as China has got the day’s global manufacturing sector roundup off to a reasonable start.

Purchasing Managers Indexes or their equivalents are due from many major economies, and China’s showed its makers on relatively robust form in June. The PMI there came in at a six-month high albeit an expected one. We’ll hear from Germany, France and the U.K. later.

Japan’s tankan economic survey was far less upbeat, but, accentuating the positive, investors have focused on increases in business investment plans.

On the corporate front, BNP Paribas will remain in unwelcome focus having agreed a record $8.97 billion settlement with the U.S. over the violation of financial sanctions

Despite all of the above, and an apparently deteriorating ceasefire in Ukraine, markets may remain largely on hold before the week’s economic main courses which will come Thursday in the form of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision and official labor data out of the U.S..

By David Cottle

Market Snapshot: U.S. stock markets (Monday close) DJIA down 0.15%, S&P 500 down 0.04%, Nasdaq up 0.2%. Nikkei now up 1%. September FTSE and S&P both up 0.1%. Brent crude up 23 cents at $112.59. Gold up $6.60 at $1338.60. EUR/USD now at $1.3684, just below $1.3694 late Monday in New York. USD/JPY at ¥101.46, above ¥101.33. Ten-year T-note yields 2.53%, Bund 1.24% and Gilt 2.67%.

Watch For: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes from France, Germany and the U.K. and the U.S. equivalent from the Institute for Supply Management. German, Euro zone unemploymsnt.

Early Verdict Mixed from BNP Clients: While several large institutional investors in BNP Paribas aren’t commenting on whether the bank’s guilty criminal plea related to sanctions violations will cause them to make changes, the Employees Retirement System of Texas says it’s halted some fixed-income trading with the bank.

Bulgaria’s Long Run Problems: Bulgaria suffered runs on its third and fourth largest banks last week. National and European Commission regulators did what they were supposed to do by stepping in and stabilizing the situation before it had a chance to become a systemic problem.

No Dollars Please, We’re Russian Borrowers: Russian borrowers are slowly returning to the global debt markets. Two things are different: no U.S. bank has yet helped sell their bonds, and none of the deals has been issued in U.S. dollars. That statistic is unusual.

Gazprom Warning Heralds Changing of Seasons: A new week begins with an old message from Gazprom. The Russian natural-gas behemoth says Europe may not be feeling the effect of Russia’s spat with Ukraine right now but boy, just wait until the weather turns.

Companies Hold Back As Investors Clamor For Cash to be Spent: Investors want companies to start spending again. Companies, it seems, have other ideas. Firms have tidied up their finances and are sitting on massive piles of cash, but few are ready to spend it just yet, according to Standard & Poor’s.

Overnight Action:

BNP Agrees to Pay Nearly $9 Billion to Settle Probe: BNP Paribas agreed to pay nearly $9 billion and plead guilty to violating U.S. sanctions against Sudan, Iran and other countries, an unprecedented settlement that includes a year-long ban on the French bank’s ability to transact in U.S. dollars.

Ukraine Suspends Truce, Renews Attacks: Ukraine’s president declared an end to a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine and announced the launch of an attack late Monday to ‘liberate our land’ from pro-Russia rebels, ignoring pressure from Moscow to extend the truce.