To not tamper with the posts about my trading decisions, I decided to keep a separate post where I track my progress. Whenever something worth mentioning changes, I’ll update this post, mainly to keep track of the portfolio.

Long time I haven’t written, here! But now that the evil of 2018 is slowly starting to fade away and the crypto markets look a bit healthier, I thought it’s time. So, here we go.

Today, I was scrolling Crypto Twitter, again, and when reading predictions from the usual crypto wizards spending time doing pseudo science, I had an idea: I will start a trading competition soon™, and I will use no technical analysis, no lines, no clouds and no other fancy stuff. Just enter and exit a position when it makes sense. Why am I doing this? Simple: to prove that technical analysis is in no way needed to be profitable in trading. And I even want to go one step further: I want to show that it’s actually a distraction which prevents you from focussing on what’s important: trading.

Many, many people, be it a high profile trader from a big bank, or just the average Shitcoin Trader™, have predicted 2018 to become the Year of Cryptocurrencies. Well, that did not happen. Instead, we got a whole year of bear market. Lots of traders got rekt and people lost their investments. And now, with 2018 approaching its bearish end, there’s still no sign of the markets turning. But there are a few signs which may indicate that the bear market is over, soon. Let’s explore what these signs are.

This post is for all the great Bitcoin Hodlers out there. Those who bought low and told their friends and colleagues to do the same, and maybe, just maybe got laughed at for buying something as useless as Bitcoin. “It’s a bubble!”, “It has no intrinsic value!”, “It’s dead!” and what not. We have heard it all. People doubted our sanity, wrote blog posts and news articles about how dead Bitcoin was.
It always came back. And I tell you what: it always will. Hodl is a substantial part of Bitcoin; it’s coded right into the protocol: there will ever only be 21 million BTC, and the reward per block is reduced every four years (next Halving will probably occur at some point in 2020 when Germany will become European Soccer Chanpion 😉 ). Price is already beyond good and evil, but it shows no signs of deceleration, let alone an end of the rally. To me, it looks like the really insane part is yet to come.

At the end of 2015, when Bitcoin reached its bottom after the recovery from the Mt.Gox pump, I made a plan: I wanted to buy as many Bitcoins as possible, because the major bear phase was over and the market was about to recover. I saw huge upside potential and told my wife about it. Also, I read about Wyckoff back then, realizing how perfectly well the Bitcoin market matches his description of the cycles markets move in. My initial idea was to go take a decent loan from the bank (we’ve had our first baby on our way, so we’d have good reasoning to ask for a loan), but decided to use our own money for speculative purposes, so we wouldn’t end up in debt if the trade goes wrong.

Bitcoin is making one All Time High after another; we’ve barely had a week without Bitcoin reaching record prices, in the past months. That being said, the Bitcoin market really started taking off after we’ve had a great Altcoin Season – and I think it’s safe to say it was the most intense Altcoin Season we’ve had, so far. Ever.

What normally happens after a bull market of such magnitude (even across multiple markets!) is a prolonged bear market, followed by a consolidation phase (Altcoins finding a bottom), just to start a new bull market. Regarding how huge the past season’s money influx was, it would only be natural to assume that the next Altcoin bear market would last a very long time… I even went as far as saying it might take anything between 0.5 and 2 years.