Almost half of the closers have a "lose" status according to the Closer Identifier Algorithm ("CIA"). The algorithm is below, and it is easy to see why. The third question is whether the pitcher's save% is lower than 60% in his last ten opportunities. So, if a closer blows one save out of his first two he automatically gets a "lose" status.

In many cases that will be a one-time occurrence because of a small sample of one week, and if the pitcher converts his next opportunity he will be over the 60% mark. In other cases that "lose" status is not a one-time occurrence but fully earned. Below are three examples.

Chicago Cubs: To the surprise of no one, Carlos Marmol has ceded the job to Kyuji Fujikawa, and we will probably not see Marmol in the closer's role again in the majors. Last week Marmol earned his "lose" status, and is CIA's first "hit" of the year.

Fujikawa began the year with a "lose" rating based on his pre-season forecast, as his projected K/BB rate was only 2.4. While he only has 3 IP, they haven't been good ones. But he gets a tenuous "hold" because he converted his one opportunity. He is on thin ice for now though.

If he falters, then the situation is wide open. Shawn Camp and James Russell are the only other contenders, so Cubs' fans should keep their fingers crossed that Fujikawa holds the job.

Milwaukee Brewers: At times, it seems like this column could be solely about the Brewers; the troubles of John Axford were a frequent topic last year. Axford is out of the job and Jim Henderson is in, making CIA a perfect 2-2 this year (3-3 if you count Bruce Rondon).

Henderson earned a "hold" job status based on last year's performance and his perfect season so far (only 4 IP), but is, at best, a bottom-tier option. He has control problems that, like many other putative closers, he overcomes with a tremendous K/9. However, few pitchers can maintain a K/9 over 13 over a long sample, and Henderson does not look to be that type of pitcher, so there is a good chance he merits a "lose" status in the near future.

Unlike Marmol, we may not have seen the last of John Axford in the closer's role. Maybe the second to last, but other than Mike Gonzalez there is not much in the pen worth considering. This may be a situation where they can convert a fringy starter to the pen.

Kansas City Royals: Greg Holland is another of the Jim Henderson class of closers, who relies on a big K/9 to hide control issues. If CIA has added one thing to our fantasy baseball knowledge it is that these pitchers are much more vulnerable than most pundits think. Explaining why this is true is beyond the scope of this column.

The K/BB minimum for CIA is 2.5; Holland has had three years in the majors, and his three ratios are 2.9, 3.9, 2.7, and last year's 2.7 was the result of a career-high K/rate. He is walking a razor's edge and is definitely vulnerable. Throw in the fact that the Royals have strong alternatives and Holland is at least an even bet to lose the job, and CIA concurs, giving him a "lose" status.

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You can find the complete set of results here. The current version of the Algorithm:

The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer's job?

2. If so, is his save percentage greater than 90% with 10 or more opportunities, or in his last ten opportunities? If "yes" then "hold." If "no" proceed to step 3.

3. Is the pitcher's save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If "yes" then "lose." If "no" proceed to step 4.

4. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

5. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

6. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 4-6 is yes, then CIA predicts he'll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he'll lose the job. The prediction will be deemed correct or not at the time of an official announcement or when the pitcher has lost a share of the job, in which case we go back to the appearance directly after his last save.