September 01, 2006

CT House Races Get Even More Interesting

Chris Cillizza, writing the Fix column for washingtonpost.com, today juggles the CT House races a bit. He moves the sleeper race, Chris Murphy vs. Nancy Johnson in CT-5, up in the "likely to change" rankings passing CT-4 and Dianne Farrell vs Christopher Shays. Cillizza cites Shays' strong favorability numbers (not hurt by his un-Lieberman approach to Iraq timelines) and Johnson's being hurt by MoveOn.org ads (Johnson's appeal is all image - the kindly grandmother with her hand in the cookie jar is - well - jarring). CT-2 with Joe Courtney vs Rob Simmons is still most likely of the three to change based on the district being solidly Democratic. But it's the Groton district, so this is a local vs national fight as well. CT-2 showed some Lieberman strength in the primaries as well.

What's most interesting is that as we head into the stretch at labor Day Weeekend, of the top 20 races at risk of changing parties, only one is currently held by a Democrat (Iowa's third District with Leonard Boswell vs Jeff Lamberti). Cillizza's top race this week for change is CO-7.

The environment remains unfavorable for many Republicans as well, but let this be a reminder to the political junkies that most voters don't pay much attention to politics until after Labor Day. What the Bush administration will try to do in the next 3 weeks is tip the scale a bit by making a military approach to terrorism its top agenda item - at least verbally. There are theoretical reasons for doing so, based on public opinion reasearch in addition to practical reasons (Bush and the R's are stuck with it, and have nothing else to run on). How it plays to Americans is another story altogether.

What do Americans and their politicians really care about this weekend? Where they march in the parade. Joe Lieberman joins Heather Wilson as "moved back in line", consistent with the fortunes of incumbents everywhere.

CT-2: We've got to get rid of Rob Simmons, Bush-Cheney enabler. Rob Simmons, former CIA agent who remained mum on the Valerie Plame outing. Rob Simmons, tool for big pharma, who voted for the Republican Prescription Give-away to Pharma Plan. Rob Simmons, the Nature Conservancy award winner who was the only CT delegate to vote for Bush's energy plan. Rob Simmons, who is going to have Poppy Bush come to the district to help raise money in a few weeks. Rob Simmons, who will probably, as he has in past elections, get Laura Bush come to raise money for him.

Interestingly, the Senate is starting to look up. Gallup has the Dems leading in PA, OH and MT. VA is slipping away from the R's, as will RI if Chafee loses on Sept 12. MN looks safe for the Dems. MO, however, looks better for the Rs. That makes TN the key.

There are an awful lot of races in an awful lot of places where the Rs are on the defensive. A hard election to control.

Mimikatz and DemFromCT, I hope you're right about RI. I felt the same way until I actually saw Laffey (an interview and one of the debates), and I must admit I'm a tad concerned now. Depending on the issue, he comes off as decidedly non-wingnut, and earnest to boot. Of course, change the subject to taxes and related matters and he's got Club for Growth written all over him; and I have yet to see Whitehouse in action. But I'd be happy to hear from someone who knows more than I about this race to put my mind at ease.