Kasich Surge In Michigan Changes Math Slightly.

Michigan has a proportional system to settle the 59 delegates choosing the GOP candidate for the presidential primary in 2016.

Because legislators chose a date prior to March 15, the is no winner take all system in place. Currently polling has Trump at about 42%, Cruz and Kasich each at about 20, and Rubio falling flat at 10 or so. In the delegate pooling (hopefully I calculated this correctly), this would result in 25 delegates for Trump, 12 for Cruz, 12 For Kasich and zero for Rubio. The remainder is split the same 8 for Trump, and 1 each for Kasich and Cruz.

Trump 33

Cruz 13

Kasich 13

Rubio 0

Up until recently, Kasich had been polling below 15. If Both Rubio and Kasich were both at 14% with Trump and Cruz splitting the difference, Trump at 45 and Cruz at 22, with the remaining 5% going to withdrawn candidates, it would result in a bit of a change. Trump would get 27 plus 9 plus 3 plus1 plus 1, Cruz 13 plus 4 plus 1, and no other distribution for the other candidates.

Trump 41

Cruz 18

Kasich 0

Rubio 0

The way in which voting breaks will determine the final count, but this provides a couple of examples on how the delegate distribution will break down. In this example Cruz only loses 5 delegates to Trump’s 8.

However, those who are voting for Kasich as an alternative to Trump or Cruz, are asking for a brokered affair which I lovingly refer to as #Republigeddon. Reaching the 50% threshold or being as close to it as possible will make the first round voting the decider for the contest. After the first round, if there is no winner, Michigan’s delegates are unbound, and that is when the trouble starts.

Though sub 15% performance by Kasich and Rubio would be better for a first round pick, it would also be to a slight advantage by Trump over Cruz in the count. However, in the event Kasich or Rubio (or both) overperform in Michigan, and actually get more than 15% but THEN withdraw, the END result might be to the advantage of Cruz if those delegates are not inclined to support Trump.

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9 comments for “Kasich Surge In Michigan Changes Math Slightly.”

Corinthian Scales

March 8, 2016 at 8:37 am

"Surge" Ya, cuck it up all you like but, if honest you all know how it's going down in Michigan.

OABTW, this should go over well with those who are not trapped within the cesspool of fraud and maleficence of caucus states - http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/06/ted-cruz-campaigning-tomorrow-in-mississippi-with-extremist-bryan-arrest-all-the-gays-fischer/

So now the conservative treehouse is playing the millenial game? Bravo.

IMO Because voting started as soon as the absentee ballots went out, it should end like this.. Trump 38% Cruz 30%, Kasich 15%, Rubio 10% and the remainder to those out of the race because people were in such a hurry.