We have tagged this election cycle is the “R Cycle.” R, as in Reapportionment, Redistricting, Recall, Referendum and Recount. In Part 1 last week, we focused in on recall elections and gave you some history of recalls around the country. This week we will focus on where recall election activity, successful or not, is likely to occur. Who’s next? The Wisconsin story will not be a one-and-done story this year. Efforts are already under way in several states either to gather signatures for recall elections or to allow recall elections. There are efforts well under way in the battleground state of Ohio, which currently does not have recall elections, for a referendum that would allow for recall elections. Do you think Ohio Governor John Kasich has called Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker about recall elections? Florida is another state that is always in the spotlight in presidential election years. Efforts to get recall elections approved for statewide officials, particularly targeting new Governor Rick Scott is gaining momentum from labor union and Democratic leaning groups. One point that must cross our minds at this point is that this is looking a lot like the beginnings of a national effort. The efforts to use recall elections, referendums and court challenges appear to have moved well past the occasional interesting tool in American politics to a tool that in many states will just be part of never ending campaign to win the issue fight with a groups on selected/elected officeholders. Several other states should anticipate strong discussion, activity and even a recall election in the near future. Here are some of the stronger possibilities:

California

A long history of holding recall elections will continue. As a result of this history, the Secretary of State has several pages dedicated to recall elections.

Colorado

Democrats control Governor’s Office and Senate while the Republicans control the House of Representatives 33-32. A one seat gain would give back complete control of the Colorado Statehouse to the Democrats. Keep in mind that much of the progressive movement’s grassroots structure today was developed in Colorado.

Florida

While Florida does not currently allow recall elections, it does have an often-used Constitutional Initiative process that could create recall elections. Did I mention Florida has 29 electoral votes, is a swing state, and Republicans currently control both houses in the Legislature and Governor’s Office?

Louisiana

The House and Senate have both switched to Republican control following the 2010 election and Republican Bobby Jindal already holds the Governor’s Office. With the state losing one congressional district, both legislative chambers in play and a rich history of political games, wouldn’t you expect a recall election effort to emerge?

Missouri

A competitive presidential state, but does not currently allow recall elections at the state level. However, the Show-Me State does allow both initiatives and referendums.

Nevada

While Republicans have the Governor’s office, Democrats currently control both state legislative chambers, however the State Senate is controlled by only a one seat margin in the country’s smallest Senate, 11-10. While the impact to redistricting is likely passed (mandatory June 6 deadline to pass maps), any chamber with a close margin is clearly a possibility.

New York

In the New York Assembly, Republicans control the Senate 32-30. This was the last legislature to determine party control following the 2010 election.

Ohio

Highly competitive presidential state + Republicans won control of the state house + Republicans gained five congressional seats in 2010 + state is losing two congressional seats due to reapportionment + Democrats have already openly talked of taking a recall election referendum to voters + 13.7% of workers are labor union members + a Republican governor with low approval ratings = a major fight/the next Wisconsin.

Oregon

The original state to allow recall elections for state officials is also home to the closest legislative body in the country. The House of Representatives is tied 30-30 and the Democrats control the Senate 16-14. The Governor is also a Democrat. This means the Democratic Party is just one House seat away from complete control.

Pennsylvania

HB922, a bill to establish recall elections for state and local elected officials, has been introduced. While the bill has yet to receive a committee hearing and is unlikely to pass this year, an effort has begun in a state where the Republicans just gained the Governor’s Office and the House in the General Assembly.

Wisconsin

19 different campaign committees have filed recall efforts against 16 different members of the Wisconsin Senate (eight Republican/eight Democratic). Wisconsin state law does not allow for recall of a Governor until they have served one year and you can bet that next January Governor Scott Walker will be facing a well-funded recall attempt.

Those who support efforts to create jobs, grow the private sector and champion free enterprise must now be ready in nearly every state at all times for a permanent election cycle whether it is at the traditional ballot box or through a recall or referendum effort. The effort to change who holds an elected office, control of a legislative body or the outcome of an issue is no longer solely fought at the ballot box in November or during a legislative session, but can now go from start to end in just 30, 60, 90, 120 days and begin any day of any year. Another way to interpret the current events of Wisconsin is to consider them to be the first move of Recall Election Chess for 2011-2012. Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania consider yourself to be on the clock.

Data from Joshua Spivak, Senior Fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform of Wagner College, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Conference of State Legislatures, and Wikipedia was used to compile this story.