2 11.1 Overview summary This chapter examines the effects of climate change on construction risk, but also how construction works significantly alter pre-existing environmental conditions. The focus of attention is major contracts, since smaller-scale work has similar considerations, and also is covered by implication, in the property chapters of this study. Central to this discussion are sound planning and risk management in the context of climate change. Design, materials and workmanship are major concerns for insurers since failure can involve catastrophic loss, and complex claims issues regarding the scope of insurance protection. Escalating population growth in very concentrated areas increasingly encroaches on marginal land and potable water resources. Major conurbations come to rely entirely on vulnerable external supplies of resources and themselves impact upon the natural environment. The problem is how to maintain development within acceptable insurable risk parameters. Short term social, commercial, economic and political pressures may outweigh scientific caution and environmental concerns. Yet construction generates a fundamentally long term risk for insurers and society. Thorough risk management is therefore vital in project planning. The ultimate effect of environmental change becomes ever more difficult to assess. Global climate change means that past statistics at best serve as a very rough future guide, with risk prediction scenarios increasingly open to considerable doubt. How do we accommodate: the need to control greenhouse gases (GHG s)? a rapidly increasing global population in numbers and mobility? the upsurge in emerging economies? Insurers have always faced the challenge of a Construction Industry trying to do more with less, in new ways. Now the pace of change is accelerating, the climatic environment is changing, and low emissions requirements present a new constraint, since Construction constitutes a major source of CO 2 emissions, e.g. through cement production (IPCC,2007) What is climate change? Climate may be defined as the general weather conditions prevailing in a designated area over a prolonged period, but it can equally extend to a wider interpretation a prevailing trend or public attitude. Both are very relevant in the context of global construction projects. The IPCC (2007) report uses climate change to refer to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Weather variables are a particularly high risk factor when drawing up the project management profile, not only for the construction phases but the planned lifespan of the proposed works. Potential climate change scenarios must be carefully assessed to evaluate anticipated change features, and select appropriate safeguards. In some cases there is still considerable uncertainty, e.g. over future precipitation or storminess. Wider safety margins seem more prudent than just ignoring the issue. This applies to climate change at the global perspective and at a very localised area. Interestingly the fundamentals may be very similar. The 3C concept 1 Because it has become so significant, there is a need to differentiate between Natural Climate Change, the past record of which is primarily contained within the geology around us, and Forced or Anthropogenic Climate Change influenced by civilisation. In the same way it is necessary to define another concept: Construction Climate Change, or 3C because it is a locally important factor. 3C may be defined as the change effect(s) on the local or regional environment derived from construction operations or developments. Note: 3C May have consequential effects distant from the construction itself; Can be cumulative. Hence past and future effects need evaluation; May create dependence on a non-natural environment; 1 Term adopted by the author to describe the local environmental impact resulting from construction development as distinct from global climate change. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 2

3 May significantly and irrevocably alter the pre-existing natural state. Only in very marginal cases can an earlier natural state be regained; May intensify, or at the other extreme negate, natural climatic or geological phenomena; May cause significant waste disposal and pollution problems. There are many examples of 3C and its profound influence on the local environment (Diagram.1). City areas, increasingly high-rise dominated, produce much higher temperature levels, often several degrees higher than those experienced out of town (Box 4). Global construction development by its very nature changes the environment, including the climate. Local works can have a similar effect on the existing micro-climate and natural bio-diversity as macro developments covering a much greater ground area (see Box 1). The 3C impact on a local or regional environment can far outweigh natural variation. Construction work needs to withstand a potentially very varied and uncertain climatic impact. The longer the use period the greater the climatic influence exerted. Much will centre on design flexibility, suitability of materials used and a skilled workforce during the construction phase. Thereafter sound standards of upkeep and maintenance must be observed. Diagrams 2 and 3 illustrate potential risk areas, any one of which might have a bearing on future events. The strength of any structure may heavily depend on its weakest point. Construction-induced changes to drainage can be critical, for example, changing 3C conditions can quickly impose demands on drainage not anticipated when installed perhaps over a century ago. Linking new development to an existing adequate drainage infrastructure requires careful capacity assessment. Removal of boundary hedges or ditches to accommodate farm mechanisation will result in accelerating run-off when heavy rain falls with flooding potential. Confinement of natural drainage is a common contributing cause. Examples are numerous (Diagram.3). On a much greater scale deforestation within a river catchment area may have considerable impact on installations downstream. Large concrete or tarmac areas create drainage problems. Water will find its own level. Transfer downstream only solves the local problem at the expense of another location. Ground water flow may be greatly influenced by environmental change and precipitation by atmospheric conditions. Motorway, rail and other embankment works may act as temporary dams. A natural equivalent which may increase with climate change is a storm surge barrier. In coastal areas a temporary uplift in sea level due to an onshore wind can act as a temporary wall against land-based outflow. A direct comparison needs to be drawn between the naturally existing environment before changes take effect (Diagram 2) and the potential result of construction development change (Diagram 3). Some change will be short-lived, e.g. de-watering 2 during construction with pre-existing conditions expected to return. Other changes will be permanent. For practical purposes each development builds on changes caused by earlier works. BOX 1 Byrd Close A micro 3C event with macro implications To satisfy demand, low rise housing for elderly residents was built on a centrally located water-meadow site bordering the village pond. The existing outflow stream was piped downstream. Drainage was installed to accommodate run-off from the built-over tarmacadam area. A concrete boundary wall provided security. Two months following occupation heavy rainfall caused flash-flood conditions. The pond quickly overflowed, the site drainage overwhelmed and rising floodwater was accentuated by the retaining wall acting as a dam until it failed with water passing through neighbouring properties. Without the changed environment, excess water would temporarily have saturated the ground used for cattle grazing and quickly drained via its preexisting natural course. This type of incident was widely noted in the Pitt Review (2008), and clearly these circumstances apply to much larger regional developments. Adequate well-maintained drainage is of prime importance. 2 The procedure to achieve a dry working area, e.g. pumping. This may have serious implications with respect to surrounding property if all necessary precautionary measures, are not undertaken. Provision of standby facilities becomes an essential insurance requirement. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 3

7 In relation to Diagram 3 several headings may need be considered, e.g. epidemic spread due to faulty drainage, exacerbated by heavy rain and localised flooding. Similarly with pollutants, toxic waste, etc. A very local outbreak cause might rapidly have global effects export embargo and movement controls. Diagrams 2 and 3 set out those construction risk areas encountered and which need evaluation dependent on risk location(s) and existing environment. Foreseeable change and its implications on the existing environment must be accounted for, e.g. drainage patterns. Each project needs analysis based on its individual merits (see Box examples). To fully evaluate underwriting risk or to assess indemnity in the event of loss or damage a good knowledge of both natural and non-natural causation is essential. All need careful consideration particularly where the scope of cover is restricted by policy limitation, e.g. application of self-retained deductible or in the case of latent defects limited to specific risks. Proximate cause can be a central issue in the event of dispute. Large claims in particular can involve very complex argument as to cause and effect. Conflicting contributory factors may well exist. Failure to appreciate the potential impact of climate change variables and provision within the project planning and its implementation increase insurers potential future risk profile. 3C impacts are a vital factor in determining insurance terms and costings. To determine causation when considering a combination of deficiencies in design, materials or expected work standards has always been a major CAR insurance problem area, similarly, to differentiate between natural and non-natural cause. Loss or damage may result from a quite insignificant occurrence which triggers a series of events to reach a final catastrophic conclusion. Groundmass saturation brought about by changed weather patterns and higher precipitation levels will greatly increase the risks associated with land slippage, considered a major geological consequence. Earthquake shock can greatly magnify the potential outcome. Previously dry areas may disclose unforeseen aquifers, springs or slip surfaces. Drainage systems can be seriously damaged as a result of unforeseen climatic change, e.g. subsidence, heave or ground movement. Non-natural causes can point to inadequate or blocked drainage. Pipelines are susceptible to changes in ground conditions resulting in joint failure, leakage or lack of gravity flow. Leak finding costs are a problem for CAR insurers due to difficulty in locating and repair. Pipes use may vary from potable or wastewater, sewerage disposal to gas, oil and product transfer or supply. Negligence or human activity failures are not uncommonly contributing causes: Design lack of foresight to accommodate potential lifespan and/or potential change Materials early failure, a much shorter lifespan than envisaged Workmanship effects of poor work procedures and appreciation of lifespan needs. One important consideration for the construction risk underwriter will be how the 3C element might be intensified by new global climate change considerations. The longer the risk period the more important will climate change considerations be. Planners need BOX 2 Rainfall and slope failure: natural and man-made situations In the Nevada del Ruiz disaster (Colombia) , a relatively small eruption melted the summit icecap creating a series of devastating lahars 4 which moved quickly downhill. The town of Armero was wiped out and more than 23,500 people died. When the flows stopped the mud set like concrete. A similar effect could arise from changed rainfall patterns; increased water penetration can quickly destabilise unconsolidated slope material which has remained for long periods undisturbed. A steep slope is not essential and an initial creep scenario can quickly develop into slide proportions. Ground water content can significantly intensify the results of earthquake shock, e.g. liquefaction. A move from a dry climate environment to a much wetter one has obvious risk implications. In comparison at Aberfan (Wales) , following heavy rain, slope failure occurred, in this case of waste colliery spoil. Not known was that the waste had been accumulated on natural springs which added to the instability and final fatal outcome when an estimated 100,000m 3 of material moved. 145 people died of which 116 were school children. Buildings affording facilities for a vulnerable concentration of people require particular security considerations. This may comprise a whole community or individual buildings, e.g. schools, confined entertainment or sports stadia 4 Flow of water saturated volcanic material in the form of mudslides. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 7

8 to anticipate application of low-emission regulations. The current uncertainty of the impact of zero CO 2 and green issues on risk evaluation presents a challenge. The use of straw or wood based construction materials may be the ultimate, but insurers potential risk exposure is rather obvious due to combustibility, load-bearing strength, effect of water saturation, etc. The need for responsible long term environmental planning cannot be over emphasised to maintain an insurable risk potential. Environmental change can completely negate past data. Only an in-depth underwriting knowledge can provide a sound basis to make sustainable insurance decisions. Natural drainage can be quickly compromised by creation of an impervious surface and build up of unsustainable water levels. Key risk issues Climate change concerns centre on increased loss occurrence frequency, severity and ultimate cost escalation. Two major risk scenarios need evaluation: Accumulation The build up and concentration of risk values within a particular location or area of vulnerability, e.g. through the growth of a major conurbation on a delta The move to a global urban dominated society becomes a prime factor when determining risk accumulation. Aggregation The widespread risk exposure emanating from a prime source. The outcome may be sudden or more usually spread over a much longer period, e.g. A severe tornado outbreak, or an active hurricane season in usa; Series loss from repeated use of faulty design specifications, materials used or work procedures, e.g. Defective system building. Often the potential aggregation loss can far exceed localised accumulation exposure. To consider risk from the Construction All Risks (CAR) insurance viewpoint all aspects must be considered. Hence, social economic and political changes should not be ignored. In fact, they may have a much greater impact on the potential risk build-up than climate change itself. One cannot give a general guide to how 3C will operate. Change scenarios may prove difficult to forecast being: Immediate or very gradual. Unforeseen or inevitable and predictable. Sudden but timing undeterminable. Short term or permanent. BOX 3 The Hallsands Disaster: an example of coastal 3C The 3C effects of coastal works might be illustrated by the Hallsands disaster ( ). Hallsands Village is situated in South Devon. Demand for shingle aggregate providing concrete to expand Plymouth Dockyard necessitated near shoreline coastal dredging in the late 19th century resulting in shoreline beach protection dropping by 4 metres plus. The village s fate was sealed when an extreme storm struck 21 years later. All buildings were destroyed or rendered uninhabitable. A sand/shingle shoreline in natural circumstances may fluctuate with periodic storm erosion but generally will rejuvenate to the earlier profile. With deep dredging this will not occur. This situation might quickly arise during construction of a large port breakwater which is seriously delayed, combined with deep water access channel dredging going ahead as originally scheduled. The unsecured works will now be subject to full force of extreme storm condition. The high risk construction exposure would not arise if the dredging operations were delayed until the works were complete and at final design strength. However, significant marine downtime would be incurred, which may pressurise the project team to take a chance with the incomplete breakwater. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 8

9 At first sight, climate change seems to have different horizons for each stakeholder: General insurers as little as 12 months. Major construction risks up to 12 years or more. PFI/PPP type projects up to 25 years or more. Climatologists 30, 60 or 100 years or more. Geoscientists much longer. However, what remains important are the probabilities of extreme events and how these have already changed from the historical norm, and will continue to do so. Each project must be considered individually as a part of overall future planning so that each is beneficial to the environment, not generating further problems. (See Box 6 on Thames Gateway). The uncertainties in climate change for insurers are: Can it be identified and monitored? In what form might it manifest itself? Where might it occur? What would be the result? When? The most difficult question! What would be the cost for insurers individually or in the aggregate? Direct loss or subsequent run-off liability? With the inclusion of large-scale manmade development (Diagrams 2 and 3) any reliable conclusion becomes further complicated. However, there is sufficient consensus of opinion and precision to make some useful predictions. The problems are how to: Maintain insurers solvency during change in a rapidly expanding global environment. Budget costs and mitigation expenditure within social economic and political restraints. Determine where the weakest links exist in the protective fence. Can we afford the cost? Can insurers afford to continue cover at an economic level? What would have been the expenditure required to upgrade the New Orleans levee protection from the existing Force 3 hurricane resistance to withstand a Force 5 generated sea surge? New Orleans in turn is part of the Mississippi Missouri watershed system, which faces other problems note the mid-west summer floods 1993 estimated at the time as a 1 in 500 year event but repeated in 2008, and the predicted earthquake risk of New Madrid (Memphis) which last occurred in 1812 when the region was little developed. An ageing infrastructure not only has the problems of the future but those inherited from its past. Renewal and upgrading is a costly but essential need if security of services and function are to be maintained (Figure 1). Patching up the past has its limits. Realignment referred to as managed retreat from a currently untenable sea defence strategy may prove the only real economic cost option in marginal coastal areas, e.g. UK East coast, at the same time offering relief to neighbouring areas in the event of expectedly high sea surge storm conditions (Box 5). Overseas, in many remote project areas, the difficulty is establishing the existing climatic exposures due to lack of relevant reliable data within an acceptable timeframe. For example, short duration work may miss its weather window and encroach on much less favourable conditions, e.g. start of monsoon. Work may be delayed many months. Weather downtime can prove costly. Project timescales need to account for climatic variables and anticipated change scenarios, adverse or beneficial. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 9

10 BOX 4 Mega-city development Mega-cities contain more than 10 million people. Mass concentrations of people and property, with rural communities moving quickly to an urban environment, create the potential for new catastrophe hazards 5. Development usually consists of prestige high rise central areas with lower rise surrounding suburbs. The heat island effect is greatly enhanced from a rural low rise predecessor. Development tends towards coastal, estuary or river locations for ease of transport, trade and services. These areas are prone to extreme natural hazards, in particular flood, tectonic events, ground settlement and fluctuating ground water levels. Ground mass may consist of weak fluvial deposits, unconsolidated or made-up ground. Flood protection will need to be fully maintained with periodic strengthening (Figure 4). Water level changes must be continually monitored and acted upon. Rising water levels will increase the financial burden. Many areas have developed historically from drained swamplands or protected ground in-fill to support low lying facilities, e.g. shipping and airports. Greater London continues to develop downstream beyond the Thames Flood Barrier (Figures 4 and 5). Each city development faces specific natural and 3C risk scenarios. Mexico City in some areas has subsided by as much as nine metres due to draining of subterranean aquifers and porous soil from old lake beds now developed. The city is also sited within a major seismic zone. The earthquakes of 18 and which measured 8.1 and 7.5 on the Richter Scale caused widespread damage 5500 died as a result. The potential mega-city catastrophe exposures have recently been shown in New Orleans (hurricane, flood), Kobe (earthquake) and New York (terrorism). Figure 1: Demolition and renewal New NHS Community Hospital, Essex. Demolition is high risk but essential to replace units outdated by technical change and modern requirements. The new work has incorporated 4000 cubic metres of recycled concrete from the old hospital sites. Recycling is an important consideration avoiding landfill disposal. BOX 6 China Construction spearheads the massive economic development with works not only using well tried techniques but increasingly developing cutting edge technology to satisfy demand. Global warming is one consideration but the 3C environmental effects could be very important also. Project planning needs to account for potential change and consider future results. The great diversity of projects is difficult to envisage, ranging from: A massive power generation programme covering both coal-fired and nuclear facilities 50 new airports planned for the next 5 years Mega-city expansion but also plans to create 50 new cities by 2020 the first to be built at the mouth of the Yangtze river (40km east of Shanghai). Many will be classified as eco-cities with population estimates between 300,000 and 500,000 Road and rail communications including major infrastructure bridges, such as the planned sea bridge link between Hong Kong/Macao/Zhuhal (30km plus) Three Gorges Dam To support the construction boom crude steel and cement production have greatly increased, the latter estimated at over one billion tons a year. The above gives but a sample of the development taking place. Better communication and infrastructure are priorities. Global warming and natural hazards need careful consideration in planning, design and work execution. Planning the Beijing/Lhasa railway involved not only work and operations at high altitude (5072 metres above sea level) but also measures to mitigate the future potential climatic effects on large stretches of permafrost and methods to maintain a stable groundmass. This was overcome by incorporating thermosiphons to dissipate heat from the ground which could otherwise destabilise critical areas supporting rail, embankments or bridge structures. Demolition of heritage structures is becoming a conservation issue a common factor in rapidly expanding developing city environments. China is no exception. Note: the massive developments in the Middle East, e.g. Saudi Arabia, Dubai, etc. The new Masdar eco-city being developed in Abu Dhabi aims to provide a zero carbon, zero waste environment. BOX 5 Storm effects on a salt-marsh their importance in coastal defences for East Anglia. With a healthy salting in front of a sea wall, the cost of building and maintaining an effective defence is comparatively low. If the salt-marsh is eroded and lost, the cost dramatically increases. The marsh area dissipates storm wave action and as a substantial weight to the seaward toe of the wall, giving increased stability against water pushing against it. Complete wall failure, causing a breach in the defence line, could occur under storm conditions if the salting has been lost by erosion. In Essex alone, of the 440km of sea wall maintained by The Environment Agency, 300km rely on a salting as a first line defence. If the salting were lost the additional cost for sea defences would be hundreds of millions of pounds. 5 Only two cities exceeded 10 million population in 1950, New York and Tokyo. The 2007 figure is over twenty and rising. In % of population lived in cities, by 2007 the figure had reached 50% (nearly 3.3 billion); projections to 2050 are 75%. New cities are continually under construction. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 10

11 11.3 Social change Social change and technological advancement are the driving forces behind 3C change. Rapid population growth continues to transform society from predominantly rural to an urban standard, with escalating consumer demand and, hence, energy need. Demand continues to outstrip supply in both prime land and material resources, and skills. Ideally construction planning should include energy efficiency and reduced GHG emission but ultimately, cost economics become the deciding factor. However, climate policies and regulations plus resource shortages may well change the economics greatly. The types of social change may be illustrated from: Small local shops to out of town hypermarkets with mass car parking facilities. These may be combined with small industrial estates built on flat marginal land with good communications access. Each consumer expends energy for transport against less earlier. Expanding holiday and global business travel requiring larger airports, extended new runways with concentrated use. Time slot landing and take-off brings delay stacking and additional energy consumption (Figure 2). Use of large land areas of flat ground becomes necessary to accommodate larger aircraft. Noise pollution should not be discounted. Concentrating population in cities many vulnerable to climate change within highrise units against low-rise previously (Figure 3). Demand for low-rise urban residential housing support becomes a serious construction issue. The trend towards a throw away society whereby replacement with the latest technical equivalent takes precedence over retention of an older model where repair or overhaul would be expensive or spares unavailable. Recycling is now becoming more prevalent but so also is the question of waste pollutants and ground contamination. Energy demand will continue to increase at an accelerating pace, e.g. cycles replaced by motor vehicles. Developing countries have the advantage over OECD nations in that construction will utilise the latest technology, usually with less regulatory restraint and land resource restriction. However, this must be balanced against a need to comply with quality control factors. Developed nations must continually expend an increasingly significant share of their overall budget expenditure on maintenance, repair, renovation and replacement. Social change demands better affordable housing, the latest technological consumer goods and importantly secure energy and potable water resource availability. Desalination 6 facilities become a necessity. The South East is the driest area within the UK but demands for new housing are the greatest. 7 Means of transportation will increasingly be geared to mass movement rapid transit systems many underground in central city areas (Figure 3). Larger sea ports, airports, railways, motorways and infrastructure support must be provided to cater for high density city environments. They will need continual maintenance to cope with operational stress in a far changed situation than existed at the design stage. Figure 2: Airport expansion La Palma, Canary Islands. Airport upgrade provision for expanding tourist industry with direct international flights. Note: renewable energy development runs side by side with new development. The creation of new and upgrade of existing airport facilities encourages mass travel, particularly in relation to the leisure tourist industry. As a result, rapid local development of hotels and accommodation will ensue. New areas are being continually exploited where earlier travel restrictions are now overcome. 6 Industrial process whereby salt water is converted to potable water for drinking and agricultural use. Increasingly long established cities will become dependent on desalinisation. This is not currently a low emission process. 7 To meet increasing demand London has its first plant at Beckton under construction (due 2009). Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 11

12 Past ground engineering could not have foreseen today s environment. However, many works built in Victorian times have proved very resilient to change others have failed the test of time or are under extreme 3C stress. 8 Future failure is a definite possibility. With limited funds available and a tendency to delay the potential catastrophic protection, disasters will occur. The questions are, when and where? Who can say where the latent defects lie? The New Orleans Katrina and Rita hurricane losses in climatological terms were far from being extreme events near misses in many ways. The fundamental problems of low lying river estuaries apply to many similar areas. This may be particularly acute where downstream of a major watershed catchment area, e.g. USA mid-west or many parts of Asia. Common problems arise from subsidence, usually the result of land drainage 9 or coastal erosion, e.g. in relation to a delta dependent on sediment deposition. Social change in underdeveloped areas will create a much stronger awareness of the benefits of risk sharing by way of insurance. Many disasters highlight the significant levels of uninsured loss and dependence on government, state or aid support. It takes time to recover and involves major costly construction programmes. The important fact is that the costs of a natural catastrophe may be insurable and hence funds made available for the reconstruction work Construction Construction work generally can be divided into three main categories: Civil Engineering will include infrastructure surface and sub-surface works to offset the effects of climate change, e.g. sea defences, drainage. Building will reflect the need to be resource-efficient, e.g. zero energy, zero waste, and also resilient to climate damage. Mechanical, Electrical and Process Engineering will seek to provide more efficiency and reduction in GHG emissions. Most projects will include all, to varying degrees. Underwriting may be influenced by the predominant category. Two important aspects arise: Impact management. Emissions control. Climate change will often affect the event frequency and severity of natural events. Natural risks either involve: Atmospherics, meteorology which will include wind and storm (in their many forms and terminology) rain, hail, snow, ice, etc., influenced by temperature variation; or Geology, hydrology which includes earthquake, volcanism, lahars, and tsunamis. Such ground- or water-influenced events may be substantially modified by changes in climatic conditions. It is useful to consider wind/precipitation exposures as against those applicable to ground/water engineering. As with climate change, differences may prove either macro- (of global consequence) or micro- (of very localised application see Box 1). Temperature and precipitation are key factors (Box 8). Figure 3: Inner city development Broadgate, City of London incorporating Liverpool Street Station/Great Eastern Hotel. City expansion creates continual change. Only a small fragment of Old London (low elevation) survives surrounded by new multistorey office blocks and reconstructed railway and hotel complexes. The demand for high-rise structures continues apace. Liverpool Street was built in 1829, the railway terminus opened in 1874 and Great Eastern Hotel in The older Broad Street station opened in 1865 is now replaced by the new Broadgate complex. Liverpool Street station is an essential part of the underground rail network. 8 London s existing wastewater, sewerage system is undergoing a major upgrade. 9 Draining land will cause natural subsidence to a varying degree. UK coastal areas earlier impounded for agricultural use are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, e.g. the Fens/ Wash area. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 12

13 Examples of weather climatic high risk construction exposures might include: Projects exposed to open sea, coastal or estuary storms, tidal, surge, etc (Figures 5 and 6). Cofferdams providing secure dry work conditions. Overtopping may occur in very severe conditions (Figure 9). Where insurers consider the risk inevitable, cover will be withheld against its occurrence. Tandem crane lifts or use of helicopters in congested or remote worksites. Temporary works structurally unstable or lacking rigidity until completed. Guy support may be stipulated as an insurance condition. Surrounding or adjacent property dependent on full maintenance of existing support during progress of site operations. The main risks are collapse or subsidence (Figure 7). In the UK special provision is provided under the current JCT SBC Form Clause The effects of climate change may be illustrated by de-watering operations, a necessity where coastal, riverside work is undertaken or a variable high water table exists. If critical, local water levels are not maintained, serious failure may result to third party surrounding property, perhaps extending over a wide area. Flash flooding potential where work is in, on, or over water. Dams present the obvious case as during work progress water diversion must prove adequate to accommodate not just normal calculated flows but potential flood excesses. Careful analysis of river flow data is an essential determining factor. Overtopping and consequent erosion may or may not prove inevitable. Clearance of accumulated debris, de-watering and other cleaning up operations can present a substantial insured loss. Water flow predictions can quickly change (Figure 9). In many remote locations the problem is not the extent to which climate change might affect the site risk exposures but the scant reliable information to formulate a true exposure guide. Large river systems may not be controlled by a single authority with a common political interest. Control of water resources is becoming a major political problem where dependence is vital. In areas subject to seismic disturbance earthquake building design will provide protection against the main effects according to stipulated potential scale intensity. However, the most vulnerable locations are not static and will change the most important consideration relates to the area geology and the effects of tectonic shock movement. Foundations based on made up ground infill or estuarial silt type deposits will be subject to liquefaction. Ground conditions can be far from consistent and vary significantly within a short distance. This equally applies to any variable condition, not the least climate change potential during the planned project lifespan. Climate change can greatly alter groundmass conditions and the effects of tectonic shock. The effects on water saturated ground will differ considerably from a rock hard dry condition. Liquefaction and lahar development can have catastrophic results (Box 2). Similarly, potential hurricane or typhoon intensity will determine design standards and will be influenced by revised climatic intensity considerations. Short period weather forecasting, usually regarded in the UK as not exceeding four days, becomes of vital necessity combined with expected seasonal weather variation. Original construction works planning should account for anticipated weather but based on historical records these may be found wanting in the field (Figure 9). Storm tracks are difficult to determine with landfall the major threat a combination of sea surge and wind force damage potential. Whilst design planning will be for the Figure 4: The expanding city: View from 30 St Mary Axe looking towards London Docklands. The London Heat Island now extends far downstream from the old city boundaries. Development will continue apace into the foreseeable future. Newly created city complexes now abound in the developing economic territories. London has extended post WW2 far beyond its earlier limits converting old dock areas to an equivalent city downstream served by a new airport and newly built rail system. That expansion is no different than many other city complexes overseas. Expansion usually entails development of marginal ground in vulnerable low lying coastal or river estuaries. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 13

14 long-term, specific construction work in progressive phases will face its own short-term climatic decisions. These considerations, which may involve high risk operations, are far different from the long-term ones. Site choice for off-sites, campsite, storage and access routes needs careful appraisal. A dry desert wadi may transform very quickly into a raging torrent through flash flooding. Although occurring perhaps only once every ten or more years it remains an essential risk consideration Planning From the basic concept, detailed plans evolve. Climate change and its anticipated short and longer lifespan term effects must now feature prominently in project assessments. Impact planning requires professional guidelines as a decision tool. Long-term durability should not be sacrificed for short-term economic cost savings with reduced resistance to deterioration and weathering. Costly maintenance, retrofitting and renewal must be avoided. Development may suffer where design may be compromised leading to rapid deterioration over a relatively short period. Climate variables can noticeably influence the outcome. Long-term weather considerations are fundamental in planning design and development for the Construction Industry. Climate change variations should be built into project planning to ensure Good, sound, flexible design. Use of best compatible materials. Acceptable erection methods and procedures. Project planning must evaluate long-term climate change within the expected period of use. Maintenance cost and upgrading need to be inbuilt with flexibility for future adaptation. Successful works may well outlast their original planned use notwithstanding modern pressures, due to over-design in advance of current requirements, e.g. Sydney Harbour Bridge after its opening Australia (1932) 10. Others will not last the term due in the extreme case to structural failure, e.g. Tacoma Narrows Bridge failure USA (1940) 11 or more likely the need for continual expensive renovation involving unbudgeted costs. Over-design has the advantage of protecting against future climate change not envisaged at the time work was accomplished. The detailed planning stage including preliminaries up to contract award is the most important. Once the construction contract is agreed, subsequent amendment probably becomes a costly contract variation order. Insurers views need to be voiced within this pre-contract period. Simple protective measures from the outset that reduce risk include features to benefit the eventual owner s long-term interests, e.g. protection of exposed floodplain 12 sites or perimeter saddle dams to retain impounded reservoir waters should they rise above certain defined water levels 13. Architects, consulting engineers and others concerned with the planning process will need consider their professional duty to evaluate client responsibilities and options relative to climate change. Decisions will rest with their principal to incorporate recommendations made. Plans need to incorporate requirements as to energy use and acceptable GHG emission levels combined with the use of energy efficient materials. Cost incentives may apply. Figure 5: Thames flood barrier. View upstream London/Docklands/ Millennium Dome/ 2012 Olympic sites. The major protection of the City and London Docklands development. The planned lifespan of the Barrier is now anticipated to be much shorter than expected due to Climate Change. Potential flood exposures are of major concern and need be kept under constant review with periodic upgrading works. A fine balance needs be maintained between excess outflow and extreme storm-tidal sea surge. Major expansion projects include: City and Docklands High Rise Development Thames Gateway Expansion Rapid Transit systems Crossrail, Eurostar Olympic Games facilities 10 Solid sandstone foundation. Original capacity estimated at 6,000 vehicles per hour plus trains and pedestrians. The annual average daily traffic grew (from 11,000 in 1932) to reach 181,000 in 1987 prior to completion of the Sydney Harbour Relief Tunnel. 11 Designed to be flexible but was aerodynamically unstable. Destroyed 4 months after handover by gusting wind of less than 45 mph. This arose from the failure to consider resonant frequency and damping. 12 Relatively flat ground bordering a natural river or watercourse subject to periodic exposure to water inundation. Ground usually consists of alluvial soil or sedimentary material overlying base rock strata. 13 Approximately 8% of the land area in England is at risk from river flooding and a further 1.5% from direct flooding from the sea. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 14

15 Rules and regulations are continually changing and need to be carefully considered when drawing up contract schedules allowing flexibility in the event of subsequent alteration to conform to anticipated UK government or EU Commission edicts. New regulations normally allow for a time lag in planning but timespans for the large project need to be borne in mind. Energy performance and emissions from buildings becomes an important consideration providing the impetus behind the 2002 EPBD focusing on carbon emissions. In England and Wales, 27 % of these come from residential buildings. Art.7 lays down the need to produce EPC at point of sale or rent but importantly upon the completion of new buildings. Planners need to keep fully aware of potential change and compliance requirements. Two points arise incorporation in the original planning and implications on lifespan risk. Planning requires consensus on climate change and green issues. Whether the assessment proves correct is the risk factor. Locations only a short distance apart may experience quite different effects from the same event, e.g. storm-flood scenario. BOX 7 Thames Gateway development 14 The Thames Gateway development is the largest regeneration programme in Europe covering some 40 miles from the City perimeter to Southend (Essex) and Sittingbourne (Kent). The cumulative flood risk potential is well set to increase over the next century due to changes in climate prediction, sea level rise and social economic population stress. The Environment Agency has direct responsibility for construction, upgrading and maintenance of flood defences, e.g. the Thames Barrier (Fig. 5) providing high level protection against both river discharge and tidal events. Sustainable construction development will increasingly require consideration of new defence strategies in particular to prevent a recurrence of the 1953 North Sea flooding disaster. TE2100 Thames Waterway Plan are high profile projects aimed at protecting vital assets within the tidal area Essex (Northern) Kent (Southern) estuary linking London to the North Sea through to Teddington Weir, the tidal limit. Climate change considerations must account for extremes: Intensified and more frequent storm tidal sea surge. Increasing sea level rise due to global warming and isostatic subsidence. Areas below the 5 metre contour are increasingly at risk with an estimated sea level rise to 2080 of between 26 and 86 cm with extremes up to 2 m. Higher river outflow events following prolonged heavy rainfall and upstream land use. Whilst the Thames Barrier is considered fit for purpose to 2030 to withstand an estimated 1:1000 year event it is necessary to fully research future needs within a major flood management risk programme as the safety margin after 2030 decreases steadily. Currently over one sixth of London s inhabitants are at risk from flooding. The cost to upgrade flood defences to predicted 2100 requirements based on current prices is estimated at 4 billion (to protect existing insurable assets of 80 billion) of which 200 million in the next 15 years. The strategy includes managed retreat on the Essex coastline (see Box 4). The Wallasea Island Wild Wetland Coast project (700 hectares) is one proposed scheme where long-term future farming cannot be assured due to sea level rise. This trend is likely to continue due to erosion on UK s vulnerable East Coast. Thames Gateway regeneration development envisages some 120,000 new homes where location and environmental design must fully account for potential flood risk together with essential protective infrastructure. Note 90% of the land targeted for development lies in the floodplain (Stern 2006).Removal of waste sewerage and effluent is a major stress concern adding to the continual need to upgrade to accommodate population and use growth. London s main infrastructure support remains underground so is vulnerable to any flooding, as well as facing the effects of a potentially rising water table. Can existing design criteria cope with this? The ODA for the 2012 Olympics have set limits where possible to encourage use of renewable energy reduction in CO 2 emissions, reuse or recycling of demolition waste including offsite aggregate supply and importantly to minimise transport to site by maximum use of rail or waterway links. BOT/PFI/PPP type projects are in vogue with risk protection of particular relevance bearing in mind the continuing maintenance exposures for usually 20 to 25 years from works practical completion date. Climatic change considerations, adaptable to accommodate future risk reassessments, must be envisaged in drawing up initial planning. Current safety margins in a project specification may need to be strengthened years ago downstream from the City, areas now fully developed were classified as marshes Ordnance Survey Sheet ; a not uncommon feature today of many cities worldwide. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 15

16 Government and local authority ownership controls are now tending to pass to private investment regeneration, forming an important equity participation source for the residential build sector. Infrastructure, power generation, quasi-government departments, i.e. NHS, Prison Service, Military, now comprise a major private commercial investment area by reason of participation in PFI/PPP and similar projects. The BOT form of contract applies equally to many overseas works. Much greater responsibility will fall on the professions. Assumptions made in drawing up a potential project hazard profile need to be monitored to ensure compliance of essential protective measures, e.g. reliance perhaps on third party authorities? A large housing floodplain development may be entirely risk dependent on provision of funding for a major flood defence scheme and its implementation and upgrading within a given time frame. Essential in planning is the infrastructure support requirement, e.g. roads, rail, utilities and services supply, administration. Often the logistics system proves a major climate hazard. Construction work in remote areas requires temporary access roads and facilities not designed for permanent use once the project is achieved (Figure 9). Overland supply of pipes and materials for a large pipe laying project may involve long distances, very remote areas subject to very varied climatic conditions with rapid weather variation or, congested built-up or industrial areas and work within a confined weather prone workplace. Situations where the infrastructure has been given priority, e.g. flood defence scheme, has an advantage over earlier developments where necessary infrastructure was lacking, or required continual updating due to unanticipated growth. Major cities continue to expand globally requiring extensive support services and infrastructure (Figure 4). Note the current London Thames Gateway and Waterway projects with flood prevention measures for the Brownfield Reach area downstream from the Thames Barrier (Figure 5), and the 2012 Olympic Development. The Essex coast and Thames estuary are of particular concern (Box 4). Many large cities, e.g. New Orleans, share London s challenges, with local variations, from the oncoming effects of climate and environmental change. Updating existing facilities may take up a significant and increasing share of available funding. 3C environmental change must be fully accounted for in the planning process. Advice from an environmental perspective is now considered vital for many projects with geo-scientific recommendations sought from the responsible Environment Agency or Flood Executive, e.g. EC Floods Directive Working Group. Climate change and its long term lifespan effects will increasingly become an essential factor for consideration. Natural variability is a factor that is often underestimated. However, planning cannot be expected to accommodate every conceivable hazard situation. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 16

17 The contract stage Investors in a project generally require acceptable insurance protection being in place at the pre-tender stage. Typically this may be provided by the JCT 2005 Major Projects form or other contract forms usually amended from standard publications which may give the same effect. Overseas aid projects tend to favour the FIDIC form approach. Once the contract has been awarded, insurers involvement is determined and the risk profile set. Close liaison between the parties now becomes paramount, insurers and usually skilled intermediaries acting as members within the group project risk management team. Three distinct phases apply: Pre-contract Concept feasibility Outline planning and design Regulatory, local enquiry, e.g. conservation Detailed planning, outline costing, budget Contract form, pre-tender negotiation Tender approval Contract Award Terms agreed Works progress Provisional acceptance handover Post-contract Contractual maintenance Latent defects Guarantees Lifespan utility and operation The insurance programme needs to be in place at the tender-seeking/financial-funding stage to protect all stakeholder interests. Strict contract pre-qualification procedures should be adopted to ensure only those suitably experienced apply. Liability arising from inherently defective work may continue long after final handover certificates are issued. Climatic problems may be slow to develop. Force Majeure becomes an important risk consideration. Under contract, risks falling within this category (usually defined) will be the responsibility of the Employer. Examples may be unforeseen ground conditions, e.g. tunnelling, or storm conditions in excess of a stipulated intensity level. Construction insurance cover is generally limited to physical loss or damage to the insured work and separately liability risks arising. Protection against abandonment, failure of the project objectives, efficacy or output deficiency is not provided. A very limited market may be available to insure specific performance risks. Increased costs of working are excluded, e.g. ground conditions proving different from those envisaged. Figure 6: Infrastructure planning new dual cable-stayed crossing, River Neva, St Petersburg, Russia. Infrastructure planning must account for staged handover usage in addition to variable extreme climate events when weather vulnerability may be high and final design criteria not yet achieved. Plant and equipment, particularly craneage, are particularly at risk. St Petersburg faces a similar threat from rising sea levels as London (Stern 2006). One motorway crossing operational whilst work on second in progress. Similar to the QEII Dartford Crossing (London M25 Orbital) interchange to divert heavy traffic from congested city areas. Work period limited by severe winter weather. At other global locations weather conditions to be considered may include typhoon, hurricane or monsoon periods. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 17

18 11.6 Risk management Risk management must identify all areas of potential hazard exposure (Diagrams 2 and 3). Action to mitigate potential works loss or damage will include insurance obligatory in most cases by reason of statute or contractual commitment. Construction insurers are not faced with short term risk easily adjusted to cater for an adverse trend, but with increasingly much longer periods. Project values are increasingly concentrated into high profile long term environmental risk exposures. Major construction engineering works, from original conception to practical completion, now extend easily to ten years plus, followed by up to a further twelve years latent defects liability. Where the construction contract is under seal, course of action for breach will accrue for 12 years from practical or substantial completion. Risk management requires a sound working knowledge and experience of the inherent risks in the proposed work and potential disaster outcome should failure occur. This places a need for sound technical knowledge on those charged with professional responsibility, not least the insurers. As a result, the lead insurance market has become limited for the major projects as have those intermediaries able to control an integrated security risk programme. Insurance represents only a part of the overall risk exposures. Some causes may be uninsurable, e.g. strikes others, whilst insurable, may prove uneconomic from a purchaser s cost viewpoint. Where delay is a direct consequence of loss or damage by an insured peril, insurance in the form of Advanced loss of Profits, Delay in Start-up or cover for expediting expenses may be available. Trade risks, e.g. policy deductibles, cover limitations and exclusions, must be borne by those responsible (usually stipulated in a written contract) as must perils for which insurance is not obtainable. Climate change can make a high but acceptable risk, uninsurable. A project critical path work analysis must recognise the anticipated indeterminate nature and variances in weather and climate with requirement for incorporation of acceptable flexibility to achieve planned completion (Figure 6). JCT contracts have for many years stipulated in great detail the scope of responsibility of each contracting party and the extent of insurance required to comply. This had become unduly complicated hence in 2005 a new simplified approach was adopted. Of particular interest were the Major Project conditions which not only simplified the indemnity clause but opened the way for a tailor-made project insurance programme extending, if the parties agreed, for up to twelve years following project practical completion. Cover would not only embrace the traditional Contract Works material damage and liability covers but also acknowledge the importance of professional indemnity protection and provision of latent defects coverage. Bearing in mind the equity investment attraction of PFI/PPP deals, this additional feature adds valuable security protection by way of insurance. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 18

19 11.7 Existing infrastructure Climate and location have always determined earlier construction design, form, methods, materials and eventual lifespan. Technical development and well-enforced regulatory compliance mean that obsolescence increasingly applies to old-build, so there is a real need to continually update to remain competitive with new-build. However, a point is reached when the construction s durability expires and retrofitting is no longer an option (see Figure 1 for example). New climatic considerations and requirements may mean structures are no longer either technically or socially acceptable. A modernising world wants the latest improved living and work standards, e.g. temperature controls heating or air conditioning. These demands may run contrary to efforts seeking to reduce energy emissions. Protection against increasing potential major natural risk exposures remains an expensive consideration to safeguard increasingly vulnerable property and assets. In emerging nations, progress remains largely dependent on affordability and utility. Increasing wealth brings consumer demand and consequent sophistication. Currently newly developed areas have the great advantage of being able to capitalise immediately on the latest available technical knowledge and expertise. Eventually, renewal will become the same problem there as for developed societies (Box 6). Maintaining existing infrastructure, buildings and machinery to modern standards and capability is necessary but very costly. This means that many permanent buildings are now replaced well within 60 years. Climate change will accelerate obsolescence. Their decommissioning and demolition presents particular risk exposures. There are many considerations, e.g. Nuclear power facilities many are sited at vulnerable coastal locations. Conventional power stations or other facilities which used asbestos as fire insulation. Brown versus green field. Previous use raises problems from earlier site operations in the brown field site category, e.g. pollutants. Sites may involve costly cleanup expenses for regeneration development. Green field developments raise conservation issues. Upgrade costs can exceed new-build, but the need to continue essential services may dictate retrofitting, with ever accelerating maintenance costs. Low priority for maintenance due to limited financial budgets. Latent defect problems. Projects not built for longer term or to current building standards. Current regulatory standards compliance. This creates a particular strain on retention of outdated units, e.g. accommodation units for the aged. Climate change will generally add to the economic costs, particularly the continued use of outdated building structures. Demolition work is potentially a high risk construction operation (Figure 1). Heritage preservation issues (Figure 7). Heritage buildings give a clear example of past climatic weathering and change. Gradual effects such as dampness, water penetration, high humidity and condensation, may all be present. Figure 7: Heritage retention Funchal, Madiera. Retention of existing structures presents specific site problems. Removal of ground support relies greatly on sound rock foundation and favourably dry climate. Ground conditions are not always as favourable. Prime considerations are the unknown factor deterioration, the effects of ageing and dependence on past construction technology. Foundations commonly bear little comparison with today s basic requirements. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 19

20 11.8 Design No two projects should be considered the same. Small variations can expose high risk insurance considerations. Analysis of climate change risk needs to include three phases: At the planning stage. During work progress. Afterwards for lifespan utility. Design will be increasingly influenced by energy saving, and the need to reduce GHG emissions, within acceptable cost parameters; likewise the use of materials and equipment to be installed. This will be reflected in form and layout (Fig.8). Advanced energy efficient technologies do exist but generally remain underresearched or uncompetitive, compared with the cost of current conventional standards. New technologies generally meet a cautious insurance approach where design risks for prototypes or use of new untried technology may be excluded from a CAR policy or cover restricted in some way. Although, generally, cost may be a guiding factor, climate change must not be ignored, because of the probability that climate impacts and emissions regulations will become more significant during the lifespan of infrastructure and buildings (Fig. 8). What construction materials are most CO 2 emission free taking account of production, manufacture, construction and lifespan usage and disposal? Lifespan usage figures covering a 60 year period may well yield far different results to those applicable up to contract works completion and rating at the point of handover to the owner. This is an area of considerable uncertainty, where new findings might result in changes in design specifications. Project design is a key CAR policy risk where cover is usually provided but with limitations, e.g. exclusion of Betterment or re-design costs. Replacement or rectification where no physical loss or damage has occurred. Replacement of the faulty part. Access costs inevitable damage to sound works to enable rectification may be qualified. Guarantees as to performance or output. Undamaged but defective contract works. Physical loss or damage to insured work may disclose latent defects in other undamaged work requiring immediate rectification to avoid a similar occurrence. Separate professional indemnity supplementary cover may now be contractually required, e.g. JCT /SBC 2005 Clause 6.11 CPD. CAR insurance, at best, may only provide a very limited cover for architects, consulting engineers, etc., e.g. site risks only. Foundation design requirements for pre-ww2 buildings may not bear comparison with those of modern specifications clearly shown when subsidence occurs. The inclusion of flood, subsidence and heave risks did not happen until the 1970s within standard UK householders comprehensive policies and more recently within an industrial All Risks format. These risks have formed an important component of the standard CAR policy. As a result, property insurance loss experience covers a limited climatic period. Certain ground conditions and risk locations receive special consideration, e.g. clay soil, floodplain or coastal exposures. Figure 8: High rise design 30 St. Mary Axe, London Model 40 storeys. Completed in 2003, the result of rigorous virtual prototype computer design simulation testing for wind resistance under all anticipated weather conditions combined with lightweight strength based on a central core. An iconic structure, the forerunner of several planned city high-rise buildings. Note the extensive use of glass against the more traditional masonry structure. Energy conservation to maintain minimum emissions levels becomes of prime importance in providing a more efficient working environment. Controlled air flow cuts heating and cooling costs significantly. The use of natural light is enhanced. The latest planned skyline project The Shard of Glass will be London s tallest at 72 storeys 310m high. Coping with climate change risks and opportunities for insurers 20

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