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MLB Picks

Plain & Simple: Fade Any Starting Pitcher with WHIP>1.55

There are many factors to take into consideration when betting baseball, so this handicapper shares a system that produces 61.3% winners when taking into account starting pitchers with a 1.55 WHIP or higher.

In late May 2015, I authored a pair of articles regarding the WHIP in MLB. As you have now been reminded, WHIP is the walks + hits per inning pitched for an MLB pitcher. In the articles, I have proved a positive correlation between WHIPs of 1.10 or less and a pitcher's positive TRGS (team record in games started). As a corollary, I proved the theory that any pitcher with a WHIP of 1.35 or higher had a negative TRGS.

In last week’s follow up article, I took the study one step further. I examined all pitchers who had a WHIP of 1.15 or less and broke them down into a home/road dichotomy. For those of you who did not read the article, the best finding was that Any MLB Starting Pitcher With a Minimum of 5 Starts Who Has a YTD WHIP of 1.15 or Less And a Road WHIP of Less Than 1.10 Is a Sterling 58-20 TRGS For 74.4% Winners When Pitching On The Road With a Minimum of 3 Starts.

This week we go to the other end of the spectrum, where we examine all MLB starting pitchers, minimum of 5 starts, who have a WHIP of 1.50 or higher. I then break it down into a home/road dichotomy to examine their TRGS, personal W/L record, and ERA. All results are through Saturday, June 14, 2015. Conclusions from the following chart will follow. The chart is in alphabetical order for ease of use.

Pitcher

YTD

WHIP

YTD

TRGS

YTD

W/L

YTD

ERA

HM

WHIP

HM

TRGS

HM

W/L

HM

ERA

RD

WHIP

RD

TRGS

RD

W/L

RD

ERA

Bradley

1.63

5-3

2-3

5.80

1.36

3-1

2-1

3.44

1.90

2-2

0-2

8.30

Buchanan

1.91

0-5

0-5

8.76

1.66

0-2

0-2

8.38

2.07

0-3

0-3

9.00

Butler

1.82

5-6

3-6

4.80

2.09

1-3

1-3

6.40

1.67

4-3

2-3

3.89

Danks

1.53

5-7

3-6

5.03

1.59

3-2

1-2

5.28

1.49

2-5

2-4

4.85

Detwiler

1.84

1-6

0-5

6.95

1.81

0-3

0-3

5.63

1.87

1-3

0-2

8.15

Duffy

1.70

4-4

2-3

5.87

1.74

3-2

1-2

6.26

1.63

1-2

1-1

5.28

Eovaldi

1.54

7-5

5-1

4.13

1.47

4-2

3-0

3.89

1.60

3-3

2-1

4.37

Fiers

1.51

5-8

3-6

4.04

1.65

2-5

1-4

5.45

1.35

3-3

2-2

2.48

Frias

1.52

4-4

3-3

4.05

1.67

2-3

1-2

5.34

1.28

2-1

2-1

2.00

S Gonzalez

1.88

2-3

2-2

8.69

3.00

0-1

0-1

20.20

1.71

2-2

2-1

6.88

Guthrie

1.52

7-5

4-4

5.79

1.29

3-3

1-2

4.11

1.78

4-2

3-2

7.72

Locke

1.50

6-6

3-3

4.90

1.22

5-2

2-1

3.04

2.03

1-4

1-2

8.37

Marquis

1.65

4-5

3-4

6.46

1.63

2-2

1-1

5.16

1.66

2-3

2-3

7.66

Masterson

1.67

3-4

2-2

6.37

1.95

2-2

1-1

6.30

1.31

1-2

1-1

6.46

Matzek

1.82

3-2

2-1

4.09

2.36

1-2

0-1

5.73

1.27

2-0

2-0

2.45

Noesi

1.50

0-5

0-4

6.17

1.67

0-3

0-2

4.50

1.32

0-2

0-2

7.94

Nolasco

1.65

6-1

5-1

5.51

1.39

4-0

3-0

5.30

2.00

2-1

2-1

5.79

B Norris

1.71

4-4

2-4

8.29

1.62

3-1

1-1

7.96

1.81

1-3

1-3

8.66

D Norris

1.50

2-3

1-1

3.86

1.70

0-2

0-1

7.04

1.40

2-1

1-0

2.30

T Ross

1.53

5-8

3-6

3.81

1.38

2-3

2-3

4.34

1.63

3-5

1-3

3.47

Strasburg

1.72

3-7

3-5

6.55

1.71

1-3

1-3

5.12

1.73

2-4

2-2

7.62

Tillman

1.57

5-7

4-7

5.12

1.50

2-5

1-5

5.40

1.66

3-2

3-2

4.77

J Williams

1.63

4-9

3-6

5.71

1.45

4-3

3-2

4.50

1.85

0-6

0-4

7.18

The first thing to note about this chart is that some of the 23 pitchers on the list are no longer in the rotation. Not to worry; some may return to the rotation, and when they do we will know immediately what to do. In the meantime, other current starters will fall into these categories, giving us new Play Against starters. The results from the chart remain very clear: we get our best Play Against results in two distinct categories.

The first is to Play Against Any Starter Who Has a YTD WHIP In All Games of 1.55 or Higher. That is a 66-49 record, with subsets of 36-20 if our starter is at home and has a home WHIP of 1.55 or higher and 48-31, if our starter is away and has a road WHIP of 1.55 or higher.

The second subset is to use a pitcher’s ERA as a “tightener.” If we Exclude any starter who has an ERA of less than 5.00 for either his work YTD, at home, or on the road, we get the following results. Overall, the record is a 75-53 Play Against. At home, a 36-26 Play Against. And on the road, a 39-29 Play Against.

Other findings from this chart are that our pitcher’s YTD W/L is Consistently Worse Than His TRGS. My hypothesis from this is that these pitchers will be great Play Against candidates on the 5 IP MLB odds line.

But We Need Your Help
If anyone who is reading this article can find a source to provide the records for 5 IP results for both MLB teams and pitchers, home and away, I will be happy to do the research to isolate the best way to use these numbers for Play On and Play Against situations. SBR provides you with a tremendous amount of FREE winning content. You will get even more FREE winners before placing your MLB picks if you can help us out in this regard.

After reviewing the information in the above chart, I decided to research a corollary to my theory. If home and road pitchers are a profitable Play Against with a YTD WHIP of 1.55, why not look at all pitchers, home and away, who have splits of 1.55 or higher WHIP, regardless of their YTD WHIP? To save you the agony of another chart, I will summarize the findings.

122-79 (61%) Play Against Any Home/Road Starter (Minimum3 Starts) Who Have 1.55 WHIP or Higher, Home/Road, But Les Than 1.55 YTD WHIP

206-130 (61.3%) This Is Your Bottom Line Number When Combining Results From The Chart (84-51) With Resutls From Corollary Above. Simply Fade Any MLB Starter on The Road Who Has a 1.55 WHIP or Higher on The Road And Fade Any MLB Home Starter Who Has a 1.55 WHIP or Higher at Home.