Any Allied auto victory after August 1945 is at best transformed only into a "marginal" victory. If no auto victory is triggered by the time the scenario ends, it is an even worse outcome.

This is the point which people continuously fail to take into account, particularly those who puff out their chests and claim that pay no regard to the game's victory conditions, they will know when they have won. If the Allied player does not achieve an auto victory by the historical date, then he really has performed poorly to the extent that the Japanese player has performed the better of the two. For under those conditions, the absolute worst a japanese player will achieve is a marginal loss and often even be in position to claim a marginal Japanese victory, and that is a far superior outcome to the historical record.

Bottom line, Japan just has to prevent an auto loss and they can consider themselves the winner.

True, and IIRC, CF is just starting to get a bunch of B-24s per month. He can still win, but can he win by 12/45? Quite possible, but not a sure thing. Any hope for Japanese victory is more than we expected!

Agreed. Your play so far has been masterful. CF is in real trouble. You should have plenty of fuel/oil/HI stocked up now to last the game, so Burma/DEI theatres are now just fluff. At this point his only hope is either CenPac or NorPac routes or a complete collapse of the Korean front when the SOV engage.

but can he win by 12/45? No, not if you continue to play as well as you have thus far and Cuttlefish continues to play as he has to this point. The war will clearly go your way long before you get to 45. You have played a very solid game.

Thanks for the kind words, gents. I need to work on moving tons of fuel and oil from Singapore and Hong Kong to Japan to ensure the economy holds up, but I now have every TK in the Empire doing just that. I calculate that all excess fuel and oil will be moved in three or four months at the present rate.

Trout misses a DD in the Philippine Sea. In a scary moment, escorts of the moderately damaged CA Myoko DC the K XVII near Waingapoe. Finally, an xAK damaged several days ago by a USN sub goes down before she can make Ponape.

Combined Fleet

Escorted by two DD ASW TFs and planes from a CVE, KB and her associated surface and oiler TFs safely make port at Soerabaja. We will freshen up air groups and perform some SYS damage repair for a week or so, then work to get Shokaku and Zuikaku into the yards somewhere safe for upgrades.

Southern Army

We use both the IJNAF and the IJAAF to hammer Broome's port and airfield. Several P-40K are caught on the ground. Do they have a high service rating? Odd they neither leave nor fly CAP.

Burma

As feared, the enemy bombers switch from the CB airfield to the troops of 17th Army. Damage isn't bad at all, but DIS for a few units is somewhat elevated. The good news is CB will repair faster than CF expects because the two first wave divisions are there with a lot of engineers.

China

BA Tuyun shows raw AS 2028:656, better than we expected as 3 of the 5 enemy LCUs are small divisions. DA tomorrow.

Other

Now that it's a level 8 port, Fusan is starting to fill up. The first slug of 230K fuel is in two convoys just a few days out from Sasebo. Won't take long to feel secure after delivering that twice a month.

What level of fuel and oil in the Home Islands would be safe to last the war? We will move in 1.2 million tons of fuel and somewhere near 1 million tons of Oil by summer, at which point we are down to just keeping up with ongoing production in the oil centers. Current fuel stocks are weak in Japan, Oil in Honshu is probably about 1 million tons, maybe a hair under seven figures.

Finally, quick forward calculations estimate almost 2.5 million HI in the bank in a year's time.

I-173 sinks a DM in a minelaying TF near Exmouth. Cribtop Intel estimates these ships are trying to mine Broome to prevent bombardments.

A merchant torpedoed near Sasebo some time ago can't stop flooding and sinks in harbor in Korea.

SE Fleet

Milne Bay makes level 6 forts. Time to move this engineer group to begin working the northern New Guinea coast. Buna and Gasmata should also hit forts 6 within 2 weeks or so.

Southern Army

We bomb Broome's port and airfield again. Intention is to both flatten this place and kill supply. 21 P-40 are damaged and 2 destroyed on the ground. These planes will not escape.

In a surprise, Derby is occupied by an Allied unit that did not appear to be present or adjacent yesterday, and the occupation occurs before the movement phase today. Just goes to show fog of war happens. This development is fine by Cribtop HQ. The Allies don't gain much owning isolated Derby and we are pleased to see their forces divided between two bases. Note to citizens of the Commonwealth - I am enough of a Premier League fan to mentally pronounce this place as D/a/rby, rather than D/err/by in the American fashion.

We put up a big Val group on ASW out of Kendari and it spots a sub. Intention is to try to convince CF that KB moved this way when it is in fact at Soerabaja.

Several LBA groups temporarily assigned to this AO begin moving back to their home theaters today. We still have about 100 Nettys here, but at this point 200 is overkill.

Lautern makes forts 4.

Burma

Thunderstorms ground everything but a few recon flights on both sides. 17th Army is now about two days from Chittagong.

China

DA Tuyun easily takes the base despite level 3 forts and decent terrain. Odds are 5:1, five KMT LCUs retreat, casualties 6350(470) vs 1672(13). A "supply (-)" was part of the combat report. That plus the large ratio of destroyed to damaged squads tells Cribtop HQ that the enemy supply situation here, and by extension in much of China, is really awful. We will try for Kweiyang next, but that base has a larger garrison. Intention is to cut off Chungking and environs in the event the Burma Road is re-opened and to possibly force CF to abandon his big garrisons at the two bases north of the Changsha area. Losing the LI and resources at these bases would further spiral his supply situation into the red.

Nishio Akira tended to a cherry tree on a blustery winter day in the serene grounds of the Palace. The snows still lingered despite a reasonable amount of sun, but he liked to nurture the trees before spring's arrival, believing it improved the blossoms yet to come.

Akira noticed a solitary figure approaching, and groaned inwardly, but with a good-natured feeling of inevitability. No plant could try his patience, but on occasion his master could. The gray-haired laborer had a unique relationship with the Showa Emperor. His Majesty had advisors and servants galore, but all had an agenda, and the wrong word from the Divine One could set into motion a thousand schemes. Because the only man or woman who wanted for nothing in the palace was a sixty-one year old gardener, he was the only soul in whom the Emperor could truly confide.

"Still tending to bare sticks of trees in Winter, Akira?" said the Emperor.

"Aye, your Majesty," Nishio replied.

"Remind us again, why do you do this?"

"Does not a pregnant woman speak to her babe and watch what she eats and drinks, even though the child has not yet been born?"

"Ahhh, now we remember," said the Emperor. He wandered the garden for a few minutes, stopping by his favorite places. It was all prelude, and both men knew it. Finally, the Sovereign came to the point.

"Another meeting of the Supreme Council, today. We reviewed the course of the war, and there was much crowing by the Navy on the effect of our recent victories. While it was enjoyable to us to watch Tojo fidget and squirm, we were still troubled."

"Why?" said Akira.

"We also reviewed Intelligence reports concerning American shipbuilding efforts. We were told all was as expected, and that our forces would control the Pacific for months to come."

The gardener scratched his grizzled chin. "Wonderful news, I would think."

"For months to come, we are sure it is. Then what? We quietly took steps after the meeting for trusted retainers to review the source documents. They tell a more disturbing tale. We have sunk five heavy and two light carriers, leaving the enemy with but one. They are currently expected to replace these losses four or five times over in the next three years, with an equally impressive output of surface warships and planes. And that doesn't even count the forces to be arrayed against the Germans and Italians. In the long run, how can we prevail?"

Akira's next statement would have resulted in the arrest of any other person in Japan. "If this was known, why did you authorize the commencement of hostilities?"

The Emperor cast his eyes down in shame for just a moment. Both men knew that the true ruler of Japan, and the real instigator of the war, was Tojo Hideki and the Army he represented. Neither the war's existence, nor some of the actions by Japanese forces in its prosecution, were entirely the responsibility of Hirohito. Akira briefly wondered whether that made the Emperor a prisoner, a martyr or a hypocrite. But not even he dared give voice to that thought.

The Emperor chose to ignore the question. "We have won most every battle, but do not know how to finish the war. The Allies will not come to the negotiating table, and we cannot invade the United States. What should we do? Our main desire is to preserve the Empire."

"I am only a gardener, Majesty, so I will answer in terms I understand. America is a mighty tree whose foundations are too deep to uproot. But she is not the only weed in your garden. She needs Britain to fight Hitler. In Roosevelt's eyes, if Europe falls, Asia will not matter. You must defeat the English to survive. And the key to that is India. If the British win the war but lose the Raj, they lose their Empire. This is the weak link. Churchill will force the Americans to seek a separate peace."

The Emperor considered for some time, then spoke. "Tojo would say that all our troops are engaged. What shall we invade India with, old men and young boys?"

"I know not, but no war is won by defending forever. Strike now or be overwhelmed in two years' time."

"Akira, we always enjoy our chats. Please show us how the roses in the greenhouse are faring."

"Of course, right this way," said the world's most influential gardener. Akira briefly wondered if the Emperor knew he was once a Samurai with a bit more experience at war than the average horticulturalist. He sincerely hoped not.

So, what do you think, readers? It occurs to me that CF may have enough to stop me at Chittagong. He has put a horde of Commonwealth troops into Burma, then scraped together 50,000 more to try to hold Chittagong, and thus Assam, against 17th Army.

Alfred weighed in that the IJN could be used to stop reinforcements to, and draw off aircraft from, the Assam front. This would involve seizure of bases in the Indian Ocean to allow for Nettys to operate and to support our ships. I think this plan is sound, especially as it will prevent CF from committing his last reserve, the US Army and Marines, to India.

It then occurred to me - what is left to defend British India? Isn't the answer nothing more than sufficient force to meet garrison requirements? If I had five or six divisions to land at Viz or even at some point between Cochin and Bombay, wouldn't India collapse like a house of cards? And, if so, wouldn't Japan capture enough bases to win the war outright via auto victory? I don't really have the troops, but if this would win the war, I could perhaps scrape them up somewhere.

The working title for this concept is, of course, Operation Scoodra. What do you think? Too much? Am I General Lee at Gettysburg thinking "one more push, and the war is won" but without the force to make that push? I can see longer roads to victory, as Alfred has pointed out, but what can CF really do to stop the IJN for the next several months? Could the invasion of a defenseless India be the Decisive Battle?

If Cuttlefish does not withdraw his Burma army, then he very well might be vulnerable in mainland India. After all, how many players have launched a full scale attack on India after 1942 (other than that oft-mention CR vs JohnIII game)? On the other hand, if he withdraws his forces in Burma, he would probably have enough troops to defend India assuming he deploys them well.

1. IIRC the Allies have assembled 50k troops at Chittagong. That is about 4 divs worth of infantry. However, I strongly suspect that count is overloaded with support troops. Even if not so, you may well be surprised at how many Allied troops still remain in the key Indian bases.

2. A move on mainland India with the intention of completely conquering it requires the 17th Army, at the very least, pinning into position the forces arrayed against it. Otherwise the good transport network, which favours the defence, can be used to defeat the invasion.

3. Six or even seven IJA divisions, even if found, will not be enough. Everyone wants to conquer India but I keep telling them there are better ROI elsewhere. For what everyone forgets is that the garrison requirements for India are quite stiff. When I did the sums some time ago, the garrison requirement was about 3700 AV. IOW about 8-9 divs worth of assets are needed to garrison India. And you have no option but to meet the garrison requirements otherwise you won't get the VPs, nor the supply flow through to enable feeding off the land, plus you would bleed valuable VPs to the Allies.

4. You can't just land at Vizgapatnam and grab the odd base. You land on the mainland, you have no option but to conquer the rest of India otherwise you are creating one giant Japanese POW camp. I remind you of point 2 re the good internal transport network.

5. Then you also run the risk of losing focus away from Operation Whirlwind. A succesful outcome there makes it all moot because then you will know for certain you have destroyed the Allied field army and thereby open the door to a conquest of India. Instead, you are currently assuming that there is no available Allied field army to meet this new idea. I draw you attention to the fact that it takes 36 days for a unit to move from the East Coast to Aden. If your opponent had to grab every mobile unit in India to send them off to Chittagong, are you confident that he did not set in motion CONUS units to arrive in India to plug the gaps and if required to also be moved up to Chittagong. How much of a head start did he have, 15 days? If so, in another 30-40 days, this new fild army would arrive in India. Could you rustle up the neccesary toops and land them before the cavalry arrives. Not to mention you wouldn't have much of a start on advancing the objective points.

6. The key Indian bases should have good fortification levels by now. You are probably underestimating what you would need to capture them.

Good points. In Scenario 1, no way could I come up with more than 6 Divisions, and honestly even that is a stretch. I hope the troops at Chittagong are second rate. Punching through there could be decisive, I'm just not sure I can break through.

Over a year into the war and victory after victory....and you want to invade a sub-continent? Hark!! Do I hear the rustle of victory disease in the tall grass?

Alfred makes a most convincing appraisal both on India and the value of blockading reinforcement choke points. An active defense would be my choice. Make the great war machine come to you. You have earned a 6 month reprieve as he reconstitutes his navy and naval aviation. Use that well earned gift of time well.

Who is to say...perhaps he will lose patience and prematurely commit his new CV/CVLs. A piecemeal commitment will play nicely into your hands.

Glens spot several TFs at Perth. They look to be oilers and a big supply convoy, respectively. The subs formerly operating near Broome are shifting back to Perth to try for these ships and any damaged vessels that escaped the Exmouth battles.

5th Fleet

Lots of Allied recon in the Aleutians. CF has been doing this off and on throughout the war, but as spring approaches we are paying more attention. Garrisoning of the Kuriles is continuing and we shift a few modern DDs fresh off their upgrades to augment the IJN up here.

Southern Army

IJAAF bombers hit Broome hard. The airfield should be closed soon.

Burma

The Allies try a BA at Taung Gyi with 6th and 7th Australian Divisions and 254th Armoured Brigade. Raw AS is 1149:954. We are in X3 terrain with level 4 forts and feel good about this ratio. Additional IJA artillery units are inbound as well.

Hibiki and Oshio DC Seal near Soerabaja. These DDs were part of an ASW TF tasked with leading the damaged CA Haguro back to port at last. The proud crew of the battle-scarred vessel lines the deck at attention as she sails in to the accompaniment of thunderous cheering from the ships of Combined Fleet.

Two kamikaze xAKs are loading the last fragment of 20th Division at Tulagi.

Burma

Yesterday we flew Tojos into Cox's Bazaar to LRCAP our troops. Due to the condition of the airfield we had to jump them out today but hoped to tempt CF into laying off our army and hitting the airfield. Today this strategy "works" with empty CB pounded but 17th Army marching into the Chittagong hex unmolested. BA tomorrow.

The Allies try another BA at Taung Gyi with similar results. In both attacks, the enemy suffered some losses in exchange for no Japanese damage.

China

We bomb Kweiyang while 23rd Army executes a river crossing shock attack against the survivors of Tuyun 1 hex away. The SA forces five LCUs to retreat a second time, casualties 5190(391) vs 1604(7). We press on for Kweiyang itself tomorrow.

A midget released at Diamond Harbor is hunted unsuccessfully by an HDML.

SE Fleet

Townsville makes port 6. Recon is keeping an eye out for a Pacific build up by the enemy, but no sign of it so far.

Southern Army

B-17s attack the airfield at Daly in numbers for the first time in months. We will get both Tojos and Nicks into action here soon. AA actually shoots one 4E down.

Broome is hit again and the airfield is functionally closed. We will continue bombing to finish the P-40s trapped there (a few are destroyed each day). Time to close Derby too.

Burma

Nells back on station at Port Blair spot what looks like a well escorted supply convoy near Madras, but no strikes launch.

Bad weather grounds the Allied air force. The IJAAF launches a well co-ordinated strike of 160 Helens at Taung Gyi, but the same storms keep hits to a minimum.

BA by 17th Army gives us more hope than we expected. There are a lot of AA units present, which inflates the LCU count. The main defenders consist of 9th Aussie Div, an Indian division and 267th Armoured Brigade. Raw AS is 2601:1109 in our favor.

Hmmm. We know that raw AS no longer tells the whole story as we get into 1943, and with Allied air superiority over this portion of the front (at least until we take more bases), we can't afford a long siege. We will probably try a DA. Does the readership think we can take Chittagong with these odds? If it falls, strategic victory is in our grasp, but Cribtop HQ is still worried about our chances.

Other

Tankers arriving today and three days from now will unload the first slug of 250K fuel at Sasebo. This pace will continue twice per month until late spring '43, by which time we should have enough oil and fuel for an army of Tin Men.

BA by 17th Army gives us more hope than we expected. There are a lot of AA units present, which inflates the LCU count. The main defenders consist of 9th Aussie Div, an Indian division and 267th Armoured Brigade. Raw AS is 2601:1109 in our favor.

Hmmm. We know that raw AS no longer tells the whole story as we get into 1943, and with Allied air superiority over this portion of the front (at least until we take more bases), we can't afford a long siege. We will probably try a DA. Does the readership think we can take Chittagong with these odds? If it falls, strategic victory is in our grasp, but Cribtop HQ is still worried about our chances.

The '43 Indian infantry squads started to come on line this month, but will take about 2 to 3 months of stockpiling before he can rotate a division divided into combat commands to get them. The armored brigade should have General Lee tanks, so that is a no win for you. I would expect him to be behind level 6 forts. If you didn't have Southern Command HQ prepped and within range to give that extra bonus, you probably don't have a chance. You may need to risk some CAs and BBs to bombard the base and significantly increase the disruption of the troops the day of the attack.

Be wary of just the production tally for '43 Indian squads. They get some in supply convoys and some some units arrive with them. If your opponent is one who likes to work with disbanding units to put squads in the pool, the might get some big units upgraded faster than predicted.

Between these AOs, an Air HQ, 2 big base forces and 12 air support units arrive from Japan. They will soon board ships to fill out first and second line bases. This slug of reinforcements adds much-needed air support points to the perimeter, particularly in the DEI.

Burma

Thunderstorms keep the IJAAF at home despite orders for a max effort over Chittagong. This is a good thing as I'm sure CF had the whole Allied air force committed as well, and his bombers carry bigger bombs.

I had no idea what to really expect, but ordered a DA. Many thanks to those who quietly urged me to do so. The result, I think, is very positive.

We obtain a solid 1:1 odds attack and drop forts to 3. Casualties are 1180(19) for the Allies versus 2458(26) for Japan. No IJA units are suffering from excessive disablements or from high disruption. The only modifiers listed were forts(+) and experience (-) for the Allies. I really like to see that EXP(-).

Cribtop HQ's takeaway from this outcome is that the base will fall unless the Allied air force can wreck our units before we can get in a few more attacks. The implications of the fall of Chittagong, if it occurs, are mind-boggling in a good way for Japan.

What do y'all think? Dare I say that we could go on to cut off the massive Commonwealth army in Burma just as the Monsoon starts? I am trying to keep the following thought at bay, but it keeps coming up: "Japan could win the war..."

Am I nuts to think this? Assuming CF is out of mobile reserves in India, and further assuming we can use the IJN and IJNAF to prevent wholesale US Army and Marine reinforcement of this front, we might be on the cusp of achieving a strategic breakthrough.

Another comment - the missing Enterprise was bugging Cribtop Intel, so we did some digging.

First, Ent is still listed on the sunk report from the battle of the Torres Islands in October 1942. Now we are four months out and she's still listed. Interesting.

I reviewed the combat report from the battle, and Enterprise suffered three bomb hits, heavy fires and an ammo storage explosion. We believe she was spotted limping near Noumea by a Glen a few days later.

Add it up and we assumed she's still afloat, but after this long and still on the sunk list, there is a better chance than we thought that she went down. But, could she really be so badly damaged that she was left out at Exmouth? Yeah, it's very possible with transit times to and from Oz, but still intriguing.

At some distict point in time I suspect your opponent is going to realize the gravity of the situaiton and transfer US assests into this theater. On the 14th of May 1943 transfer of assests into this theater will take a remarkable turn. Simply stuff on the East Coast will appear in theater taking about 162 hexes/ 27 days to transfer besides the short trip from Aden to Karachi ... If you continue to expand and not think of a defense line .. all this glory is going to go down in flames ..

You have to start thinking of what line you plan to defend or put it all into auto-victory ...

While your position seems very strong in India with this attack looking promising, Crackaces point is right on. If he starts to panic plans in the Pacific will be put on hold (and might be anyway since the US Navy is out of the invasion business for a good while). This is the natural place to look to take advantage of the other Allied strengths; lots of strong land units, much better armor, arty and AA, plus the 4Es which will render anything in the clear useless.

I'd say get through Chittagong, try to push them around a bit and get the Burmese front cut off. Go nail those troops and then set up defensively. I hope you brought some good AA with you!

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

He does not have to Panic he just only has to see the comittment and the gravity of the situaiion and make the comitment to trap the IJA With stacking limits It takes only 3 Divsions either US or upgraded Aussie's with 3 -4 US armored units .. I have posted pretty pictures of IJ in a futile effort trying to defend their stacked spearheads after their LOC's have been cut to pieces by 4E's, paratroopers, and advancing Commonwealth and US forces ... I estimate that Cribtop has 60 . maybe 90 days to establish a line and dig in ...

Then again there is the strategy of maintainng offensive intiative until Mar 1944 [a la Greyjoy vs.Radier ]

Good points all. It may seem I am feeling some serious victory disease, but what is really occurring in my noodle is consideration of what happens after Whirlwind. Thus, step one is take Chittagong, step two cut off the Allies in Burma (in and of itself a valuable achievement), and only then will we encounter step three - what's next.

I am at least going to run the numbers on what I'd need to take to push his VPs down to 8000. I figure if I pull that off I'd hit 4:1 somewhere along the way given the "I gain, you lose" nature of big VP bases. I may VERY quickly conclude it's a fool's errand - I frankly have no idea where the VP treasures are in India. I'm under no illusion we can walk to Karachi or even Bombay or Delhi. But Calcutta and Madras may be takeable. Inherent to any such plan is the danger Crackaces is pointing at - it's an all or nothing move.

Another option would be to cut off the Allies, march into Burma from Assam, and destroy many enemy LCUs while extricating 17th Army. How many VPs would THAT be worth?

Finally, we can't lose sight of the very real possibility of a 3:1 victory in early '44 or a "run out the clock" victory as Alfred has pointed out. Either of these would certainly count as victory in my book.

So, I won't take leave of my senses, I promise, but things have progressed to the point where I should at least consider the possible upside scenarios.