Thursday, May 2, 2013

Game Changer

Iran has made a strategic commitment not to lose Syria. That in turn means Syria will not follow the example of Libya. With Hiz"B"Allah fighting alongside the Alawites, it will be impossible for the rebels to defeat Assad, and sooner or later the rebels will understand that they must make a deal which will allow for power-sharing and the protection of Alawites and other minorities. The Kurds, who have created a virtually autonomous region, will likely follow the path of the Iraqi Kurds toward quasiindependence

HbA is the critical element in such a deal - which would not only end the civil war, but ensure Hiz"B"Allah's place in Syria - similar to its role in Lebanon.As part of a new Syrian government, HbA will be protected and legitimized.Backed by the EU, it will enjoy international support despite its involvement in terrorist attacks around the world, drug trafficking, counterfeiting and other criminal activity. With a significant presence in Syria and Lebanon, Great Satan will probably reconsider her relationship w/ Hiz"B"Allah.

And then look out Little Satan

A renewed Syrian-Lebanese axis under HbAe will provide Iran with a huge land base from which to extend its influence in the region and lead the fight for every inch of what many in the international community consider "occupied Syrian territory" - the Golan Heights.A new, radical Islamist Syrian government will focus on a return of the Golan to Syria as a way of building national cohesion. Their efforts will be primarily diplomatic and media-oriented, intended to further isolate and condemn Little SatanGuerrilla terrorist incursions and missile attacks, however, should be expected as part of a campaign to "liberate land stolen by Little Satan."

Little Satan"s northern border, therefore, will become "hot," like that with Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Since Iran supports Hamas and HbA, it is logical to assume these organizations areworking together. Although it's unclear what Egypt's position will be in a growing confrontation with Little Satan in the north, one would expect at least approval if not active support. Egypt could, for example, allow HbA units to operate in the Sinai, along with Hamas, to create a second front. It would be a nice fit with Moslem Brotherhood interests.Along with Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank") and eastern Jerusalem, the Golan Heights will be on the negotiating table. This sets up a standoff that cannot be resolved without Little Satan"s capitulation.Even Little Satan cats, like President Shimon Peres, who have advocated relinquishing the Golan, would be hard pressed to make that argument again.The unpredictable danger regarding a future Syrian government that includes HbA is the massive stockpile of chemical and biological weapons which remain unsecured and are still available to President Bashar Assad and his regime. Presumably, these weapons of mass destruction would also be available to any future government, and perhaps to splinter groups and non-governmental rogue actors. The failure of the international community to eliminate this threat is at least on par with its failure to prevent Iran achieving nuclear capability.The international community can and must take responsibility for removing all WMD from Syria.Hiz"B"Allah's role in the Syrian civil war is ominous. Supporting Syrian rebels will have the short-term effect of prolonging the crisis, but will not end it.