Wow, they have given us just about too much to almost have a feel of what to expect in this coming episode havent they?

As for the 'RUMOUR' that Nate and Jen are eliminated in this coming leg, (to which I would really LOVE to see for the sake of further prooving that a spoiler may not be accurate!) But unfortunately I have to believe, that based on their youthful advantage over the other teams, final adrenaline and determination (fueled by their constant failure to come 1st) will help them overcome their differences and settle their annoying 'BICKERINGness' to the point where they are 'lucky' enough to bump up as team number one, sadly on the final leg.

I have nothing against Jen or Nate. I just don't think that they both portray an ideal or succesful individual, based upon their lack of mutual respect for each other, to claim the gold prize. I would've prefered to see TK&Rachel, Gosh they are so humble.. and loving to each other, or even Ron&Chris and Nic&Don to have won INSTEAD. I think it will be a 'shameful' ending to what I believe has been an awesome season.

As of objective analysis:

So far, the clip of the roadblock with Ron and Christina seems to recollect Christina's victorious smile as we saw in Dubrovnik; particularly when she was reaasured that they were team 1st. whilst cheering for her dad at the stone wall renovation roadblock. Somehow I suspect that they are the first team to complete the roadblock.. but at this point nobody can guess for sure.

It seems about right that Nick and Don hasn't completed the roadblock upon their appearance at Taipei station at 4:57pm: in other words they were departing rather than arriving.

I have nothing against N&D, I think the constantly released evidence speaks for itself; to which I think CBS has made a terrible mistake revealing to the public.

a) The timetable reveals that Nic and Don are 'most likely' getting ON rather than off the train adjacent to the right of the platform.

b) Looking at the pictures and comparing the ones with Don in the night (Ximending shopping district/' or maybe yaoyuan international' + running alongside Nick at the deserted streets at night) and at the morning (airport + taipei T.S. + Taichung T.S. ); it was ORANGE in the morning and dark greyish BLUE in the night. Which based on the necessity as demonstrated by other teams to change their clothes upon the completion of the jeep roadblock at JIJI township, we know that Don would've done the roadblock and had to have done the same upon completing it. SADLY, his shirt was still orange when he was at Taipei station at 4:57pm. Meaning he hadn't done the roadblock. They were obviously heading for JIJI township at that point!!! And they would've been doing the task in darkness, rather than daylight.

c) We know that the departure 'SOUTHBOUND' is at the platform to the right, where nic&Don are standing, as we saw TK&rachel enter the train on that platform. (this can be further confirmed by checking the map of Taipei HRS station). So why would they be running along the platform that stops the train heading for taichung if they had just arrived from taichung on the other platform?. That just doesn't make sense.

Having had the color of Don's shirt confirm this, I can now list the following with great confidence:

Nic&Don

-Depart from Taipei at 5:00pm by THSR-Arrive at Taichung station at 5:52pm-By taxi or train they should arrive at the roadblock by at LEAST 7:00pm (DARK SKY)-Looking at the brevity of the roadblock (10 min) upon Ron's attempt, I'd say that they are back at Taichung station by at least 8:20pm. -And thus arrive at Taipei station by at least 9:10 pm.-Which gives them enough time to get to the detours before the shops gets deserted, which we can see are not upon their sighting during the night at the shopping district.

Knowing that the other three teams completed the roadblock during daylight, we can assume that the last out of the three leave JIJI township AT or BEFORE sunset. Sunset is at 6:40pm. So that team should arrive back at Taipei by at LEAST 8:40 pm. I still think that all (RACHEL,RON,NATE) were at the roadblock about an hour or more before sunset: Judging by how bright the sky was despite the heavy amount of clouds covering it. If this was true, it's safe to assume that the last team out of the three left JIJI township at 5:40pm, and thus arrived at TAIPEI at 7:40pm. This would give a 1.5 hours gap between this team an Nic&DON, still not knowing how much gap towards the first team. But if this last team out of the three completed the roadblock just at sunset, they should just be 1/2 and hour ahead of Nic&Don. If this was Tk&Rachel, then Nic&Don could catch up if Tk&Rachel gets stuck half an hour slower in doing the tasks especially with their speed bump.

Hence I don't know who might pull through IF that was the case. Otherwise Nic&Don are more than certainly out of top three. Hence 'rumours' about them running to the finish line is soooo busted.

I think the shot where Nic (holding the route clue nervously) and Don (alongside nic carrying nothing) are running confirms, by the amount of tension and stress that they have both projected, that they are aware of their prospective stance upon elimination. The deserted background in this clip looks like the gardens and trees that surrounds our Taiwanese pitstop, don't you think?

As of Ron&Chris, we have really been underestimating them all this long. First we all doubted that they would ever come first in any legs. Then we thought that they would be last in Japan (they ironically came first instead), having to do the speed bump in Taiwan. Even in Italy or India despite strong rumours that Kynt&Vyxsin were having trouble. I honestly don't see how they couldn't come first again in Taiwan, (in finals we know they wont) they seem very positive and cohesive especially in the clip with Ron so co-operatively doing the roadblock. They also seem very succesful and satisfyied in that interview clip. They are a strong and cohesive team, most thanks to Christina for managing problems well. Even ones created by her own team member. (Princeton graduate... seriously) And it seems ironic that despite almost half of that 'Taipei 101' spoiler being very unlikely, people still reckon that the other half would be dead right. I cannot wait to see it for myself. Ruling out the 'asian teams eliminated', which we know is so wrong, I am going to look at the coming progress of this team with great equality and optimism as I watch this Leg.

Good luck everyone, hope your 'favourite' team wins this leg... and the final...

I can't seem to find it on this thread, but has apskip or anyone else given us a rundown of possible fligts between Osaka and Taipei? Direct or through Tokyo? If teams arrive at the pitstop between 7PM and 11PM, and it is only a 12 hour pit stop, they would be leaving between 7AM and 11AM. And if they have to ride up the glass elevator in Osaka first, how do they catch flights that will get them to the 101 tower by noon on July 27???

If you look really closely at the colors + texture detail + shine of the 'GREEN' wrangler type jeep at the roadblock, they seem to VARY. PLEAZZZZ take close notice of what i'm about to say.

1. Look closely on the body color, tyre shine and also overall texture of color of the jeep BEFORE submersion in RON & CHRISTINA's roadblock PICTURES. Notice:

+++ The body colour is OLIVE green, the tyres are clearly rubbery dry and the black exteriors seem to be unwetted. Also the chinese writing seems to be very clear on the front of jeep. The seat head is not shiny, nor is the fabric material that dark. If you can also pick up the sight of the woman driver's hair, they seem to be separated rather than bunched together by water moist.

2. Look closely at these features AFTER submersion at Ron's roadblock pictures. Notice the body is darker army green, chinese writing appears less defined due to the darker water moist body, seat head is very shiny, the seat fabric itself is darker grey (water moist obviously), The overall texture of jeep is shiny.

3. Compare The pictures of the jeep BEFORE subermission into water during BOTH NATHAN and RON's appearance at roadblock. notice that at RON's turn at the jeep, it is very dry, by analysing the specified details. Where at NATHAN's turn BEFORE submersion it seems to be very wet, like at RON's turn AFTER submersion.

On a cloudy day like this, I wouldn't hesitate to say that a FULLY sumberged jeep wouldn't dry >> from how it looked as it came out of the water back into how DRY it looked before it was submerged, as RON was getting on it >> by AT LEAST 5 - 6 hours. I think it will stay moist for a long time in fact.

SO, assuming that the jeep was the SAME, in both RON and NATHAN's go, that there wasn't a second one somewhere (I highly doubt). It prooves that RON was the first person to begin the task. And for all we know, the already sumberged condition of the jeep in NATHAN's go could've only been at it's second or third submerssion, but not the first for the day. This is good news so far for team R&C.

gingerman--go look in Timelines. We have been discussing this over there and the whole prob is that teams won't be able to make the most likely flights...

oceangreen--that is an excellent and informative analysis--thanks so much for doing all that! I think you are prob right on the money...

The only things I have to add are re the "spoilers".

The Nick/Don evidence for final three was based on someone who claimed to have seen them in Anchorage. This could mean either that they were in Anchorage for a task or they could have been running decoy. So that "spoiler" does not help us at all.

The Taipei 101"spoiler' may be all right or not--but we may have been quick to read too much into it. He actually said that based on the comment from the blonde who reportedly said "I wonder what the Asians would say if they came to a place like this" that he guessed that an Asian team was far behind or eliminated. But it could have just as easily been that that team was far ahead--it was our embracing of that idea that was the problem.

Every spoiler remains unknown until we see it aired.

And FWIW, I think the outed team this week will be down to either Nich/Don or TK/Rachel (spec not spoiler !) Maybe they did such a nice so-long-farewell clip on TK/Rachel LAST week in order to save time THIS week? And anytime CBS tries really hard to make us think one thing--like N/D in last place--you can almost guarantee that that will be a CBS smokescreen to draw our attention away from what really happens.

And we definitely seriously underestimated Ron/Christina--they have been doing a fabulous job! Major kudos to them both.

Logged

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

As for the 'RUMOUR' that Nate and Jen are eliminated in this coming leg, (to which I would really LOVE to see for the sake of further prooving that a spoiler may not be accurate!) But unfortunately I have to believe, that based on their youthful advantage over the other teams, final adrenaline and determination (fueled by their constant failure to come 1st) will help them overcome their differences and settle their annoying 'BICKERINGness' to the point where they are 'lucky' enough to bump up as team number one, sadly on the final leg

Can you point us to that rumor please?

Quote

I think the shot where Nic (holding the route clue nervously) and Don (alongside nic carrying nothing) are running confirms, by the amount of tension and stress that they have both projected, that they are aware of their prospective stance upon elimination. The deserted background in this clip looks like the gardens and trees that surrounds our Taiwanese pitstop, don't you think

Ah this is what I was trying to match up last night but with no luck, we need some night shots of the C.S.K. Memorial area ---If I lighten this picture it doesn't help~

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

And FWIW, I think the outed team this week will be down to either Nich/Don or TK/Rachel (spec not spoiler !)

And my post is also a reply to what came in while I was typing this...

Quote

Heee...I was rereading the thread looking for a new Jen/Nate rumor!

And here's another speculation: I now think that the outed team tomorrow could be Nate/Jen after all. And now, what might be that rumor to their 4th-place finish: I'm not disregarding what's been said about their performance (in fact, I've believed it all this time, now all but totally disagree, about 5 minutes ago), but they were just added to Chip & Kim's finale party in California.

It really isn't a "spoiler" of the race itself. However, the final 3 have to be in New York for TES. Whether they're at the afterparty there or not isn't a guarantee, but I can't imagine N/J partying on opposite ends of the country. Of course, unless TES and the check presentation's in Los Angeles this time (which I used to think was the cast for fall seasons of Survivor until not too long ago). However, if Phil is indeed slated to be in NYC next week, I can't imagine that.

Then again, they could fly the Final 3 back after they party into TES like was done for Todd and Courtney for Survivor. Which, again is unlikely because CBS really doesn't give the same treatment for TAR as is does for Survivor, IMO. So, Chip would have to fly them back himself, and, unlike Tyler/James, Rob/Kim, and Lyn/Karlyn, they (this year's Final Three) actually accepted his favor.

Anyway, that's that. However, I love how Ron/Christina are back in this, and how it now could be anyone going. I can't imagine how they would screw up and/or be so happy at the pitstop. Although, IMO, and as mentioned, and based on awesome oceangreen info, I think it's going to be Nic/Don out in 4th, due to that same sighting that has them favored in the F3. If TK/Rachel do recover here, they are the closest team to them. But if they are running, it's most likely due to being out or running for 1st for a F3 spot, as well as position.

Logged

Every reality star is someone's favorite

Winning isn't everything, but it isn't considered nothing either. Otherwise, there wouldn't be a tribal council, a pit-stop, a boardroom, dimming of the lights, and so on

Then again, they could fly the Final 3 back after they party into TES like was done for Todd and Courtney for Survivor. Which, again is unlikely because CBS really doesn't give the same treatment for TAR as is does for Survivor, IMO.

And this I agree with, CBS treats TAR like the so called red headed step child

The gardens do stay open to the public after dark (I was there at about 11.30pm), I wonder if this would help? (The white rectangle in the vidcap indicates a landscaped garden, and the lights by the side do kind of match!)

Yeah, I think we are going to have to accept Don & Nic being eliminated this week (what we call the 4th team curse).

Really unless their is some serious oddness to this episode (which is extremely unlikely). While I believe time wise it is possible for the leg to be over two days (so enough time for the final leg). And that it is mathematically possible that the teams get to the roadblock and discover an hours of operation making them start early in the morning , and then the rest of the day doing the rest of the tasks and traveling back.

But while that does appear to be possible with the time situation. It doesn't seem to fit with what we see of the tasks (nothing seems terrible time consuming besides the traveling).

And even if that did occur the fact that it appears that we see Nic & Don in the dark (with clothes that reflect doing the roadblock) would still put them at the end of the pack.

REally the biggest thing right now is trying to figure out the placement of the other teams and when Tk & Rachel get their speedbump. I assume it happens early in the days tasks. But they might treat it placement wise like they do a Yield or U-Turn (which can be either early or late in the episode).

But even if its late, I don't think it allows enough time for Nic & Don to catch up (without significant other problems for Tk & Rachel).

As for the spoiler about Nic & Don in Alaska it is possible in one of two ways.1. Decoy team (which isn't that uncommon for the fourth team).2. Or it could be more solid information that the final leg does end in Alaska.

I think I am going to cry (he,he).

I think I am really glad that while I really like this season (great locations, tasks and stunts), but that I never fell in love with any team (though I like several). And that I really only hated a team and a half.

I can't seem to find it on this thread, but has apskip or anyone else given us a rundown of possible fligts between Osaka and Taipei? Direct or through Tokyo? If teams arrive at the pitstop between 7PM and 11PM, and it is only a 12 hour pit stop, they would be leaving between 7AM and 11AM. And if they have to ride up the glass elevator in Osaka first, how do they catch flights that will get them to the 101 tower by noon on July 27???

GMAN, the quick answer if that there are no such flights that allow anyone to be released from a 12 hour pitstop and get to Taipei 101 by noon July 27. Here are the flight choices:

27 AM release from Osaka(except for Tk and Rachel who should release about 11am) KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:EG211 1030 1245CX565 1100 1315BR2121 1235 1505

You can always get the latest total AR12 Timeline information by looking backward from the end of the Timeline Speculation thread. Right now the latest such post is #276, Jan. 7, 941am. If you look for this, you won't have to keep asking for help.

Could it not be TK/Rachel who are the ones running the 24 hour leg? Maybe they couldn't get on any of the flights in time and are doing the roadblock the next day, which is why it is day time for them? How could Nick/Don be so behind? Is the detour before the roadblock?

Could it not be TK/Rachel who are the ones running the 24 hour leg? Maybe they couldn't get on any of the flights in time and are doing the roadblock the next day, which is why it is day time for them? How could Nick/Don be so behind? Is the detour before the roadblock?

fwiw

Osaka taxi? white covered seats. If you could see the video, Rachel is happy. here~

Legend has it that the Lantern Festival or Little New Year began during the reign of Emperor Wu Di of the Han Dynasty (206BC-AD221), to honour the wily exploits of the Guan Holy Sovereign, who recommended lighting huge firecrackers and displaying red lanterns to please the God of Heaven.

So while fireworks rage in the south, lanterns light up the north of Taiwan in a diametrically opposing display of peace and tranquillity.In Taipei, the massive Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall plaza fills with kitsch helium balloons (in the shape of kangaroos, toilets, chooks, dogs and much more), thousands of beautiful red and yellow sky lanterns, dozens of food stalls (row upon row of squid and black bean, sushi, dim sum, fish balls, shrimp coffins, chilli chicken and more), performers, and crowds.

In the mountains nearby, there is a less hectic lantern display over the village of Pinghsi. These lanterns are decorated with pictures, slogans and the names of their owners, and let loose into the sky with wishes such as "The higher the lamp flies, the higher your business will soar".

But I swear they're always happy! Last week's episode, the closest they got to frowning was looking at each other and shrugging. Did you see how happy they were when they reached the pit stop? They were even smiling when Phil told them they were the last teams to arrive.

We can never know what they're thinking without knowing what's going on...

I can't seem to find it on this thread, but has apskip or anyone else given us a rundown of possible fligts between Osaka and Taipei? Direct or through Tokyo? If teams arrive at the pitstop between 7PM and 11PM, and it is only a 12 hour pit stop, they would be leaving between 7AM and 11AM. And if they have to ride up the glass elevator in Osaka first, how do they catch flights that will get them to the 101 tower by noon on July 27???

GMAN, the quick answer if that there are no such flights that allow anyone to be released from a 12 hour pitstop and get to Taipei 101 by noon July 27. Here are the flight choices:

27 AM release from Osaka(except for Tk and Rachel who should release about 11am) KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:EG211 1030 1245CX565 1100 1315BR2121 1235 1505

You can always get the latest total AR12 Timeline information by looking backward from the end of the Timeline Speculation thread. Right now the latest such post is #276, Jan. 7, 941am. If you look for this, you won't have to keep asking for help.

Thanks for the insider tip. But it seems to me that there is too much ep speculation in the Timeline which should be included here in this thread. It would be helpful to include all episode speculation in this one thread.

Yeah it appears that Don & Nic's only shot is if One team really screws up, or if the Speed Bump and other activities put the breaks on Rachel & Tk after the roadblock. If it occurs before then they are in a world of hurt.

As to why the showed Tk & Rachel doing their tasks, they usually do if the team isn't going to be eliminated (especially this team into the season when the cast is so small) show teams doing the tasks (that way we don't bitch, did they do it or not). Really the only exception is the final leg and the third team (at the final tasks) because really by that point do we really care if Ray & Yolanda kew their flags, or if the Weavers could finally make a map, or if Bama did anything in New York.

For example Eric & Danielle were 3 hours behind (thanks to flights in Hong Kong) yet we saw them at every task. And of course in the 2 legs really screwed up by the airport nightmare in All Stars we got to see the teams do all the same tasks. What they skipped in Germany (the rowing or paddling, whatever the hell that was) was skipped for all teams.

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan