Wednesday, January 02, 2013

January's Mild Middle

Once we get through this week's relatively colder look a milder pattern is in the offing for the Mid Atlantic once we clear through this week. It doesn't look, at this point anyway, like shorts weather or anything close to a Spring Fling. However, it will be a milder run of things across the region as the pattern reverses itself from a two week cooler look.

The longer range trend through mid January suggests that we're more mild than not across the Eastern US -- in fact, the middle of January could be pretty mild based on ensemble modeling from both the GFS and European models. Temperatures in the 50's, perhaps? Winter hiatus, part two? Seems plausible.

The core of this warmth could be felt across the Mid Atlantic in the middle portions of next week, out ahead of a storm system that is poised to track through the Great Lakes and pull warmth up ahead of it. Wednesday and Thursday of next week *might* be pretty warm. It's tough to say how warm but the ensemble average from the GFS suggest highs may get back above 50 in Philadelphia by next Wednesday and probably get solidly into the mid 50's in Central and Southern Delaware.

After mid-month, suggests of more typical January weather could be in the offing. Yeah, that means snow chances for now look kinda bleak and the pattern is going to remain dry through that mid/late week storm. It could be a fleeting glance, a short shot of cold as we're just in the fringes of the longest range modeling. However, nothing looks to lock in for a while...and we could see January overall end up a few degrees above average yet again. Not record setting warmth, but still a pretty warm month on the whole.