Tenn. poll: A blowout wrapped in a nail-biter

By CHARLES MAHTESIAN

05/21/2012 04:36 AM EDT

In Tennessee, Republicans control the Legislature, the governorship, and both U.S. Senate seats. In 2008, the presidential race there wasn’t even close: John McCain won by 15 percentage points over Barack Obama.

So it comes as something as a surprise that a new Vanderbilt University poll shows Obama in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney, with Romney leading by just 1 percentage point, 42 percent to 41 percent.

President Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in traditionally conservative Tennessee, according to a new Vanderbilt University poll.

In this case, it paid to read through the whole story and to understand the distinction between polling a sample of adults — many of whom won’t or cannot vote — and registered voters.

The 42-41 figure was among adults, or Tennessee residents who are 18 and older. When a registered voter screen was applied, Romney had a more comfortable lead.

Thus the money quote, five paragraphs into the story:

[Vanderbilt University political science professor John] Geer cautioned that the registered voters among the poll participants favored Romney by a larger margin, with 47 percent saying they would vote for the former Massachusetts governor and 40 percent for Obama. He said that’s a more likely outcome in November.

“It’s not that close a race,” Geer said, predicting Romney would prevail with little trouble. “I suspect a lot of hard-core conservatives are still getting used to the idea of Romney as the nominee, and by the time the general election comes along, they’ll be in lock step with Romney. But right now there’s a small chunk that are still being cautious.”