4.06.2009

Early season playoff dreams

There are a lot of people out there who might put aside the early success of the Seattle Sounders as a fluke, as a good thing that certainly can't last. They might point to the fact that teams that have started well fade very often, and the reverse is true as well. Houston last year being exhibit A - a terrible start which left them at the bottom of the league didn't stop them from being the best team in the West by years end. So, these people say, the success of the Sounders is great and all. But they're still an expansion team and they probably won't make the playoffs.

Don't listen to them. Already, Seattle is in prime position for the postseason.

Facts are facts, and 9 points are 9 points - the number Seattle has through 3 games. What'll it take to make the playoffs? All along I've been using 40 points as my benchmark. In a 30 game season, an average record of 10-10-10 will get you to 40 points. 8 teams make the playoffs out of 15 teams in the league, meaning the 8th team will necessarily be the average team in the league. Call it 40 points.

So with that as the target, and 9 of those 40 points out of the way, Seattle now has 27 games to get 31 points. And 13 of those games are at home, in the friendly confines of Qwest Field, which is quickly proving to be the most difficult venue in MLS after just two games. (Well, unless you have a soft spot for fans that throw beer and leave early.) Would 7 wins out of those 13 games be to ambitious a target? I don't think so. 7 wins gives you 21 points, making a total of 30. And yes, other games could yield more points in the form of draws. Which would be great.

With 30 points (at least) at home not seeming like too difficult a target, that leaves the other 14 games to pick up 10 more road points. This would be harder than you think: a few teams didn't manage this last season. But that still seems like a reasonable target, making two goals for the remainder of the season.

- Win 7 games at home- Get 10 points on the road

Accomplish both of these, and I guarantee the Sounders will be playing in the playoffs in 2009.

3 comments:

Anonymous
said...

You might be right. I think most of the league has been surpirsed by how good the Sounders are, and their win inToronto was most impressive, particularly as they did not have Montero.So, if Montero can come back and the defence conitnues its, frankly astonishing improvement, Sounders are going to make the playoffs. Wow! It feels great to ststae that.