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Aaron Bruski

The Step-back 3

NBA Trade Deadline Kickoff

Surely this is a case of ‘famous last words,’ but this year’s trade deadline has been extremely quiet compared to the past few years. Maybe it’s the lack of Melodramatic storylines and the like, but it’s probably more tied to the new collective bargaining agreement, which has set old, inflated player salaries against the backdrop of a prohibitive luxury tax that even the large markets are trying to avoid.

Even if teams are wary of the salary cap’s new realities, chances are things are going to pick up immediately and we’re planning big coverage around here, as usual. Adam Levitan will have a report in the next few days on the most likely trade candidates, and we’ll follow that up next week with a report on top fantasy stashes. I’ll summarize the action here today and then again during All Star weekend, and then in the days leading up to the deadline we’ll have daily write-ups independent of the Daily Dose.

Fantasy owners know that values can swing wildly during this time of the year, and the savvy owner can change the course of their season, and likewise those that sleep during this time can find the competition rapidly gaining on them.

We’ll carry the coverage into the day of the deadline and bring you the action in real-time on both our player news page and also on Twitter. If you’re not following our entire crew on Twitter, go to the basketball home page and add everybody on the list. If you’re not following me, you can click right here and get dialed in.

Past years have seen a barrage of tweets that fly in faster than any human can read, and we’ll update the action live so you can have winners and losers within moments of the final bell. It’s one of the best days of the NBA year, so hopefully you’ll be able to call in sick, grab your beverage of choice, and find yourself a diamond or two before the competition does.

So let’s get you guys setup with what we know heading into today so you can read the tea leaves with the best of them.

SMOOVE MOVE?

Chris Broussard recently reported a “60 percent” chance that Josh Smith gets moved, and recent reports have painted a back-and-forth between player and club that supports the idea that he won’t be with the Hawks. Smith, a free agent this summer, recently said that he believes he is a max player, and the Hawks have said that they won’t pay him max money. We can argue the merits of whether or not Smith deserves max money, but chances are there is at least one team out there willing to pay the man, and that leaves the Hawks with a pretty easy decision to get something for him before he walks.

The Nets are where the thickest smoke resides, as David Aldridge cited them as suitors and Broussard said they are “going hard” after Smith, but I’ll be the first to say that a theorized package of MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, and a future (low) first aren’t breaking down the door. It’s early, but I’d imagine other parties would want to get in on the action at that price. For their part, the Hawks have said they won’t part with Smith unless they get a “bona fide star” in return, which is what they’re supposed to say so no surprises there. The Atlanta Journal Constitution has refuted the Broussard and Aldridge reports, which sounds like team-side sources circling the wagons. I'm going to assume Aldridge and Broussard are onto something here.

The Suns and Marcin Gortat were floated by Hoopsworld’s Alex Kennedy, and that report was eventually refuted. Pistons beat writer Vincent Goodwill opined that the Suns and Mavs would be teams to watch, though it’s unclear if he’s just spitballing or has sources telling him this. Marc Stein reports that the Hawks want a young center in return for Smith, and Gortat while struggling certainly fits the bill. While there has been talk that the Hawks would want to keep Smith to try to recruit Dwight Howard this summer, Broussard reports that Howard has no interest in playing for Atlanta, an idea that we probably shouldn’t etch in stone given the big man’s indecisiveness. Anthony Morrow’s name has been attached to the rumors, and owners should only care about that in the late stages of a ‘bona fide’ deal.

The bottom line for Smith’s owners is that there is more of a chance that he moves onto a team with depth than one as shallow as the Hawks are. He’s also afforded a tremendous amount of freedom with Atlanta to play his special brand of head-scratching basketball, and moving into another system there is no guarantee that he will enjoy the type of bump that Rudy Gay is enjoying for the time-being in Toronto. I don’t think a team will pony up for Smith and put the shackles on him, and he could very well benefit from a little structure to enhance his efficiency. But if he lands on a loaded roster, like the Nets, he could take incremental hits to his scoring and rebounding.

I think owners need to be flexible and approach this situation from both sides. A buy low offer to a panicking offer has just as much merit as a sell-now offer for a comparable player. Throw in the fact that Smith carries fourth and eighth round rankings in 8- and 9-cat leagues over at BasketballMonster.com, which don’t nearly match the type of name value the first round fantasy pick carries, there are going to be some wild trade offers in fantasy leagues.

THE CONSOLATION PRIZE

If the Nets can’t swing a deal for Josh Smith, the next item up on the agenda in the rumor mill is a swap of Kris Humphries for Ben Gordon of the Bobcats. The Cats were after Humphries last summer, and they can certainly use a big body that can handle NBA minutes. I’ve heard some talk about Humphries stepping in and being the Bobcats’ best big man and I just don’t see it, even if he would be a lock to play 20-25 minutes or more per night. In other words, don’t go panicking over Byron Mullens, who has flashed a nice little mean streak since his return.

As for Gordon, a move to Brooklyn would certainly stand a chance of resuscitating his value. The Nets need a consistent scorer off the bench badly, and Gordon profiles well spacing the floor for Brook Lopez next to Deron Williams. Chris Broussard reports that this trade is secondary to the Nets’ interest in Josh Smith, so that will be the domino for owners to watch here.

THIBS’ BLOOD PRESSURE

I’m not sure how much weight to give this rumor, but the theoretic trade sending Carlos Boozer to Toronto for Andrea Bargnani is pure comedy. Boozer’s matador defense is already famous in Chicago, and responsible for at least one playoff exit against the Heat two years back. Bargnani might be the rare player that can make Boozer look passable on that end of the floor, so the idea that Tom Thibodeau would get to sink his claws into the soft stretch four is enticing.

The trade does make sense from a pure basketball perspective, though, as Bargnani would open big lanes for Derrick Rose and that has been an ongoing problem for the Bulls. A potential swap would be slight bad news for Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson owners, as Boozer would likely command more time than Bargnani in a post-deadline scenario, and the money scenario for JV and Johnson owners is that Bargnani goes and no big man threats return. Boozer’s value might actually increase in Toronto, as Noah steals a lot of his stats and Thibs has no problem pulling him – and the Raps will likely want to showcase their asset. Bargnani’s value would have a similar chance of increasing in Chicago, as his shooting is a needed commodity and there are only two bigs in Noah and Taj Gibson to compete with, and Noah’s foot is a red flag.

Overall, owners probably don’t want to tilt their projections for either player too much since this trade doesn’t have a whole lot of traction and the Chicago Sun-Times has already (somewhat curiously) pooh-poohed the deal. But should the smoke thicken, this would be an ideal situation for both guys in a trade scenario.

SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY

J.J. Redick’s name has been in trade rumors all year. He is a free agent this summer and that is the core of the speculation, as the Magic have to decide whether or not they want to pay him as a core guy or get what they can now. My guess is they’ll weigh the offers and make the call based on that. The Bulls, who were matched on a qualifying offer for Redick once already, are in the mix as are the Bucks, Pacers, and Celtics. Marc Stein wrote that the Bucks are weighing their ability to sign him if they make a deal to acquire the swingman, and that the price is “expiring(s) and a future No. 1 pick.” Redick told the Orlando Sentinel wrote that the Magic are not actively shopping him, but it’s unclear how much weight to put into that statement. I think owners have to be fairly aggressive here. Redick enjoys one of the easiest paths to fantasy value in the NBA playing for the Magic’s extremely shallow unit as a primary ball-handler. With perhaps a coin flip chance of being traded right now, and nowhere to go but down in terms of utilization, I think owners need to be working sell-high offers.

Surely this is a case of ‘famous last words,’ but this year’s trade deadline has been extremely quiet compared to the past few years. Maybe it’s the lack of Melodramatic storylines and the like, but it’s probably more tied to the new collective bargaining agreement, which has set old, inflated player salaries against the backdrop of a prohibitive luxury tax that even the large markets are trying to avoid.

Even if teams are wary of the salary cap’s new realities, chances are things are going to pick up immediately and we’re planning big coverage around here, as usual. Adam Levitan will have a report in the next few days on the most likely trade candidates, and we’ll follow that up next week with a report on top fantasy stashes. I’ll summarize the action here today and then again during All Star weekend, and then in the days leading up to the deadline we’ll have daily write-ups independent of the Daily Dose.

Fantasy owners know that values can swing wildly during this time of the year, and the savvy owner can change the course of their season, and likewise those that sleep during this time can find the competition rapidly gaining on them.

We’ll carry the coverage into the day of the deadline and bring you the action in real-time on both our player news page and also on Twitter. If you’re not following our entire crew on Twitter, go to the basketball home page and add everybody on the list. If you’re not following me, you can click right here and get dialed in.

Past years have seen a barrage of tweets that fly in faster than any human can read, and we’ll update the action live so you can have winners and losers within moments of the final bell. It’s one of the best days of the NBA year, so hopefully you’ll be able to call in sick, grab your beverage of choice, and find yourself a diamond or two before the competition does.

So let’s get you guys setup with what we know heading into today so you can read the tea leaves with the best of them.

SMOOVE MOVE?

Chris Broussard recently reported a “60 percent” chance that Josh Smith gets moved, and recent reports have painted a back-and-forth between player and club that supports the idea that he won’t be with the Hawks. Smith, a free agent this summer, recently said that he believes he is a max player, and the Hawks have said that they won’t pay him max money. We can argue the merits of whether or not Smith deserves max money, but chances are there is at least one team out there willing to pay the man, and that leaves the Hawks with a pretty easy decision to get something for him before he walks.

The Nets are where the thickest smoke resides, as David Aldridge cited them as suitors and Broussard said they are “going hard” after Smith, but I’ll be the first to say that a theorized package of MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, and a future (low) first aren’t breaking down the door. It’s early, but I’d imagine other parties would want to get in on the action at that price. For their part, the Hawks have said they won’t part with Smith unless they get a “bona fide star” in return, which is what they’re supposed to say so no surprises there. The Atlanta Journal Constitution has refuted the Broussard and Aldridge reports, which sounds like team-side sources circling the wagons. I'm going to assume Aldridge and Broussard are onto something here.

The Suns and Marcin Gortat were floated by Hoopsworld’s Alex Kennedy, and that report was eventually refuted. Pistons beat writer Vincent Goodwill opined that the Suns and Mavs would be teams to watch, though it’s unclear if he’s just spitballing or has sources telling him this. Marc Stein reports that the Hawks want a young center in return for Smith, and Gortat while struggling certainly fits the bill. While there has been talk that the Hawks would want to keep Smith to try to recruit Dwight Howard this summer, Broussard reports that Howard has no interest in playing for Atlanta, an idea that we probably shouldn’t etch in stone given the big man’s indecisiveness. Anthony Morrow’s name has been attached to the rumors, and owners should only care about that in the late stages of a ‘bona fide’ deal.

The bottom line for Smith’s owners is that there is more of a chance that he moves onto a team with depth than one as shallow as the Hawks are. He’s also afforded a tremendous amount of freedom with Atlanta to play his special brand of head-scratching basketball, and moving into another system there is no guarantee that he will enjoy the type of bump that Rudy Gay is enjoying for the time-being in Toronto. I don’t think a team will pony up for Smith and put the shackles on him, and he could very well benefit from a little structure to enhance his efficiency. But if he lands on a loaded roster, like the Nets, he could take incremental hits to his scoring and rebounding.

I think owners need to be flexible and approach this situation from both sides. A buy low offer to a panicking offer has just as much merit as a sell-now offer for a comparable player. Throw in the fact that Smith carries fourth and eighth round rankings in 8- and 9-cat leagues over at BasketballMonster.com, which don’t nearly match the type of name value the first round fantasy pick carries, there are going to be some wild trade offers in fantasy leagues.

THE CONSOLATION PRIZE

If the Nets can’t swing a deal for Josh Smith, the next item up on the agenda in the rumor mill is a swap of Kris Humphries for Ben Gordon of the Bobcats. The Cats were after Humphries last summer, and they can certainly use a big body that can handle NBA minutes. I’ve heard some talk about Humphries stepping in and being the Bobcats’ best big man and I just don’t see it, even if he would be a lock to play 20-25 minutes or more per night. In other words, don’t go panicking over Byron Mullens, who has flashed a nice little mean streak since his return.

As for Gordon, a move to Brooklyn would certainly stand a chance of resuscitating his value. The Nets need a consistent scorer off the bench badly, and Gordon profiles well spacing the floor for Brook Lopez next to Deron Williams. Chris Broussard reports that this trade is secondary to the Nets’ interest in Josh Smith, so that will be the domino for owners to watch here.

THIBS’ BLOOD PRESSURE

I’m not sure how much weight to give this rumor, but the theoretic trade sending Carlos Boozer to Toronto for Andrea Bargnani is pure comedy. Boozer’s matador defense is already famous in Chicago, and responsible for at least one playoff exit against the Heat two years back. Bargnani might be the rare player that can make Boozer look passable on that end of the floor, so the idea that Tom Thibodeau would get to sink his claws into the soft stretch four is enticing.

The trade does make sense from a pure basketball perspective, though, as Bargnani would open big lanes for Derrick Rose and that has been an ongoing problem for the Bulls. A potential swap would be slight bad news for Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson owners, as Boozer would likely command more time than Bargnani in a post-deadline scenario, and the money scenario for JV and Johnson owners is that Bargnani goes and no big man threats return. Boozer’s value might actually increase in Toronto, as Noah steals a lot of his stats and Thibs has no problem pulling him – and the Raps will likely want to showcase their asset. Bargnani’s value would have a similar chance of increasing in Chicago, as his shooting is a needed commodity and there are only two bigs in Noah and Taj Gibson to compete with, and Noah’s foot is a red flag.

Overall, owners probably don’t want to tilt their projections for either player too much since this trade doesn’t have a whole lot of traction and the Chicago Sun-Times has already (somewhat curiously) pooh-poohed the deal. But should the smoke thicken, this would be an ideal situation for both guys in a trade scenario.

SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY

J.J. Redick’s name has been in trade rumors all year. He is a free agent this summer and that is the core of the speculation, as the Magic have to decide whether or not they want to pay him as a core guy or get what they can now. My guess is they’ll weigh the offers and make the call based on that. The Bulls, who were matched on a qualifying offer for Redick once already, are in the mix as are the Bucks, Pacers, and Celtics. Marc Stein wrote that the Bucks are weighing their ability to sign him if they make a deal to acquire the swingman, and that the price is “expiring(s) and a future No. 1 pick.” Redick told the Orlando Sentinel wrote that the Magic are not actively shopping him, but it’s unclear how much weight to put into that statement. I think owners have to be fairly aggressive here. Redick enjoys one of the easiest paths to fantasy value in the NBA playing for the Magic’s extremely shallow unit as a primary ball-handler. With perhaps a coin flip chance of being traded right now, and nowhere to go but down in terms of utilization, I think owners need to be working sell-high offers.

NOT THE BIGGEST NEWS….

But according to Chris Sheridan, the most likely news of the trade deadline will be that Will Bynum is traded. An explosive scorer with a small $3.25 million expiring deal, he can be an asset for any number of playoff bound teams so I have no problem giving Sheridan the benefit of the doubt. Of course, the devil in the details would be what the Pistons get back in a trade, but a trade sending Bynum out could only help Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT

The Raptors will be among the more active teams in the rumor mill for the Andrea Bargnani situation alone, but also because GM Bryan Colangelo is fighting for his job and is seriously trying to win now. It’s unclear how much political capital he has, but Marc Stein’s report that the Raps were interested in Pau Gasol would fit in with the haymaker mentality over there right now. Before Stein’s report I mentioned how great it would be to plug Bargnani into Mike D’Antoni’s defenseless approach, and I would imagine that has to be the next shoe to drop if the rumor carries any weight.

Most importantly, this rumor hit before Pau got hurt, but any deal for the big man isn’t a short-term play. He has two more years and $20 million to go on his deal. It’s unclear what the Lakers would want back but with Jim Buss all but kicking Pau in the butt on his way out the door, I’m not going to summarily dismiss this rumor until it gets shot dead. I don’t think you bring that type of player and money on board when you want to develop Jonas Valanciunas, but again, Colangelo might not care about what happens two years from now. Owners should simply watch to see if this rumor can carry life on the other side of Pau’s injury.

COOL HAND LUKE

Mo Williams took to Twitter to express frustration with Bill Simmons discussing a potential trade sending Luke Ridnour to the Jazz, but in reality this has been reported by the local ESPN affiliate and Chris Sheridan as a possibility. Williams is recovering from his thumb injury and may think he’s coming along better than the Jazz think he is, but regardless of Williams’ feelings on the matter it makes sense that the Jazz are looking to bolster the position. Williams, making $8.5 million this season, will also be a free agent this summer, while Ridnour would be under contract next season for a more affordable $4.3 million. The Jazz could effectively give themselves leverage in negotiations with Williams, while looking to the draft for a ‘PG of the future,’ if they haven’t already decided that Williams is not in their long-term plans.

A move to Utah could be big for Ridnour, who has conveniently been ratcheting up the production in time to enhance his market value. Mired in a four-way timeshare at the guard slots in Minny, he could step into a starting job in Utah for a handful of weeks with the hopes that Williams’ return takes longer than expected. If you’re considering a stash of Williams, you may want to consider the idea that he could have competition, and Ridnour makes for a sneaky low-ball buy low target right now.

BUCKS IN FLUX

The Bucks are staring down a new ownership scenario and I don’t want to get Milwaukee fans in a tizzy but they are on the shortlist of teams that could face relocation. It’s early for that, but it’s out there. Luckily, GM John Hammond has been extended, but on the flip side they could be looking to get out from under big deals. Speaking of big deals, they are staring the Brandon Jennings situation in the face, as Jennings has retained agent Jeff Schwartz, a known proponent of moving his guys into bigger markets. Outside of Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson, there really aren’t any players that would be off limits and Jennings, Beno Udrih, Monta Ellis, and Samuel Dalembert have all had their names in the rumor mill. As mentioned, the Bucks have been linked to J.J. Redick, and the takeaway here is that owners will want to be ready to jump into whatever vacuum gets created. Udrih is a sneaky stash target right now if one or both starting guards get moved, and Dalembert owners will just want to see how things play out.

FLASH GORDON

Eric Gordon is already grating on teammates and his knee/back issues can only be marketed if the parties involved are somehow aware that he is mailing it in, if indeed that is the case. That’s a hard line to tip-toe around and it’s more likely that he’s actually damaged goods. Still, reliable writer Sam Amick caught up with the situation the other day and reported that, while unlikely, the door is still cracked open for a trade and, if anything, it will be interesting to see if Gordon presses to get out of town. There’s so much working against a potential deal that owners can project Gordon using the status quo for now.

COVETING THE SHUMP

The Suns are throwing themselves at the Knicks it seems, going to games and scouting second-year guard Iman Shumpert recently. They’ve thrown Jared Dudley’s name into the mix along with a first round pick, but sources have told me that the rumor itself has cooled down over the past 24 hours. Surely Dudley can help the Knicks but so can Shumpert, and the Knicks (including Carmelo Anthony) don’t appear to be jumping out of their shoes to get older. Dudley probably has a better path to value in Phoenix, though that would assume that Lindsay Hunter and Co. decide that the trainwreck known as Michael Beasley isn’t the wagon they want to hitch up to anymore. The Suns are a barf-o-rama right now. Shumpert would become a must-own player in Phoenix based on his upside alone, so he will be a guy to stash if these rumors don’t go away. Right now, owners that decide to stash Shump do so at their own risk.

TURNING THE PAGE?

Evan Turner is a frustrating mess for Sixers fans, though his progress this season should be viewed as a win by most measures. Still, he can’t shake the inconsistency that has defined his career and the Sixers have put him out on the market, which I think is smart considering the word ‘potential’ can still be thrown around when talking about the former No. 2 pick. Already extended for next season, the Sixers will be looking at a question of extending him for the following year this summer. The team has some flexibility here, so they won’t bend over backwards to do a deal. Given the Sixers’ relative lack of depth and Turner’s sizable role, I’d be rooting for him to stick around if I owned him. Beyond that, there’s not enough information to assess any further fantasy impact.

ALL THAT JAZZ

It’s pretty clear that the Jazz want to trade some of their excess frontcourt talent, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they deal with the Al Jefferson situation. Jefferson’s name is bigger than his game now, and it was telling to me that Ric Bucher, whose reporting has slipped considerably over the past year, said that Jefferson was less likely than Paul Millsap to be traded. This is a case where I’d side with Bucher, though, as Jefferson is in the final year of his $15 million contract and he doesn’t play a lick of defense. Unless a team has a big expiring contract it will be difficult to find a match, when also considering that teams won’t want to part with anything of value unless they’re guaranteed to re-sign him.

The latter point is salient, because getting into the Jefferson business in the twilight of his career is probably a bad financial decision based on his market value. The far more compelling asset is Paul Millsap, and that would leave the Jazz with three bruisers in Jefferson, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter, which isn’t ideal. I think the Jazz will work overtime to find a trade partner and end up giving Jefferson away at a big discount, or frustrate all of us by standing pat and dealing with the issue this summer. The easy analysis here is to stash Favors and I will probably make a decent effort to stash Kanter where I can in deeper leagues, too. It is also increasingly clear that the Jazz view Gordon Hayward as the future, and they’ve looked awful without him, and I’ll be scooping him up wherever he has been dropped unless we get unexpected bad news on his shoulder.

As for the Jefferson to San Antonio rumors, they have been shot down by the local paper but I think it’s a pretty good fit in the sense the Spurs need to make some waves with their aging roster. Tiago Splitter, Patty Mills, and Stephen Jackson’s expiring deal are the cost, and I think the Spurs’ projection on what they think restricted free agent Splitter will cost this summer will be the tipping point here. Mills should be watched with one eye as a potential point guard solution in Utah if smoke thickens, while Jackson could complicate things for Hayward, but at this stage there’s nowhere near enough smoke to get me off my aforementioned position. The fact that the Jazz don’t need another big man could mean a third team gets involved, and with all the ‘what ifs’ this is just something for owners to monitor.

TRADE TIDBITS

The Celtics are in the middle of the trade rumor storm, and their current winning streak has softened any talk of them throwing in the towel. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett rumors have died down for now, though Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, and Brandon Bass are legit trade candidates. The Grizzlies have expressed interest in Lee, and they have a $7.5 million trade exception to work with so there’s definitely smoke there. For what it’s worth, Zach Randolph rumors have died down. The Clippers were named in Pierce/Garnett rumors, with the prize being Eric Bledsoe, but now that those rumors are all-but dead look for Bledsoe’s name to start popping up elsewhere.

Masai Ujiri said he doesn’t want to trade Andre Miller and George Karl doesn’t believe the Nuggets will be dealing this year. The team is leaning toward keeping Timofey Mozgov, but Marc Stein believes that could be posturing. The Warriors are getting offers on Harrison Barnes but won’t move him barring a great deal according to beat writer Marcus Thompson, which smells a whole lot like a team leaking a report to drum up interest. I could be wrong, but that’s my gut talking, and the Warriors need an interior defender bad.

Stein believes that Danny Granger could conceivably be traded, though he points out that a Rockets team that was once interested is no longer so. The Wolves have a split opinion about Nikola Pekovic’s long-term status with the team, and it stands to reason that if they determine he is not then he would be a very nice trade chip. The Thunder have received numerous inquiries about Eric Maynor according to Marc Spears, and that also sounds like a report to drum up interest. He lost his rotation spot to Reggie Jackson at one point this season but was previously thought to be one of the league’s better backup signal callers.

The Suns have unsuccessfully shopped backup PG Sebastian Telfair, and while I can’t imagine dealing him when my backup is Kendall Marshall, that’s the type of player that is often dealt. DeMarcus Cousins is off limits in any deal, because the Maloofs are in stage 532 of reenacting the movie Major League and new potential owners in Seattle or Sacramento will want to make that type of call. One has to think that Tyreke Evans falls into the same category, and Aaron Brooks is probably the most likely name to get dealt. It's conceivable the Kings go under a no trade clause of their own this year.

Aaron Bruski has covered hoops for Rotoworld since 2008 and has competed in national fantasy sports competitions for nearly two decades. In 2015 he was named FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year. You can also find his work over at ProBasketballTalk, where he received critical acclaim for his in-depth reporting of the Kings' relocation saga. Hit him on Twitter at Aaronbruski.Email :Aaron Bruski