03/06/2015

We are on the cold side of a high pressure system with temperatures expected to climb into the 40s this afternoon which is about 20 degrees below normal. The high on the other hand has sinking air with it and that means sunshine for us!

The high is on the move eastward this weekend. It will be poised overhead tonight and that means another night with below freezing temperatures. Lows in the 20s.

On Saturday, the high continues the journey eastward allowing a west wind to set up and that will mean a boost in temperatures. Highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Full sunshine also continues thanks to the sinking air mass overhead.

Besides what's happening at the surface on Saturday, we notice our next system across the Southwest at midlevels of the atmosphere that will cause the flow aloft to become westerly and then southwesterly across Alabama. What does that mean? Unsettled weather is ahead along with milder temperatures.

The next 10 days look milder, wet and with no sign of Old Man Winter paying us a visit. We'll get to enjoy a nice stretch with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows in the 40s starting late weekend. We might even get close to 70 degrees by late next week. So closer to normal temperatures are right around the corner!

So when is our next chance for rain? It looks like by late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours showers will be possible mainly north of I-20. A better chance for rain sets up Sunday night into Monday morning. As the upper level system gets closer and the lift enhances in the atmosphere, we could see quite a soaking on Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Long range model data suggests this wet weather pattern persisting through the end of next week and that just means several rounds of rain for Alabama. Check out the precipitation forecast below that looks ahead 10 days and notice how the precipitation forecast climbs in the long term.

Again, just liquid in the 10 day forecast and maybe a lot of it and milder days ahead! So tuck away the ice scraper and pull out that umbrella because it will come in handy next week.

03/05/2015

We continue to track a band of precipitation moving northeastward across the state of Alabama. The precipitation type across Marion, Lamar, Walker, northern Cullman and the higher terrain in Blount county has been either freezing rain or sleet or a mixture of both. South, we have only seen reports of just rain.

The freezing line hasn't budged much but could push farther southward into northern Pickens to northern Tuscaloosa to northern Jefferson and Etowah counties by the late morning hours. Higher elevations may see a brief window for freezing rain and or sleet through 3pm before the precipitation exits and fizzles out. Slick spots can't be ruled out farther south on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses but most roadways will just be wet.

Here's a look at travel troubles and time frames:

Total freezing rain and sleet accumulations possible:

The best window for freezing rain in parts of Jefferson county and especially higher elevations will be closer to 11AM. A glaze might start to form on elevated surfaces. We may see the precipitation end briefly as sleet which could create slicks spots on elevated surfaces and across the higher terrain.

Here's a look at the current warnings and advisories from the National Weather Service:

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We are seeing a faster changeover from freezing rain to sleet... That means worst travel conditions and a slightly lower threat for extreme ice accumulation that could lead to potential power outages today. We may even see some snow mixing in across Lamar, Marion and Winston counties later this morning.

At times, don't be shocked if you hear thunder and also hear it sleeting heavily outside. There is some elevated instability leading to some claps of thunder and heavier precipitation.

The warm nose aloft which is greater than 8° C is having little effect on the warm droplets falling into the subfreezing layer below freezing into ice pellets. Typically, the warm nose that warm results in freezing rain and not sleet but it's not the case this go around.

We have bumped up sleet amounts and decreased freezing rain amounts slightly. See the graphic below!

Travel conditions are going downhill quickly across the northern counties under a winter storm warning! Travel is not advised!

Freezing rain is already moving in across Marion and Lamar counties and the precipitation along with sub-freezing temperatures will trend slowly southeastward the rest of Thursday morning. It is pouring rain with temperatures below freezing in Hamilton as of 4AM which is right on schedule. A glaze of ice is already forming in Hamilton and the glaze will only grow in size this morning. We are talking about exposed surfaces that are elevated, like bridges and overpasses, trees, power lines etc. It will take much longer for the freezing rain to become a major issue on area roadways.

The freezing line pushes southward this morning and precipitation will changeover to freezing rain as far south as northern Tuscaloosa to Jefferson to Blount to Etowah counties. Just how far south the freezing line progresses this afternoon is still in question. New developments this morning with model data suggests it might not budge as far south as the I-59/I-20 corridor. We'll continue to track trends and keep you updates.

Here's what to expect today for a few specific cities across the Fox 6 viewing area:

Hamilton: Freezing rain through 8am and then changing to sleet & snow through 12pm.

Tuscaloosa: Chance for freezing rain after 9am through 12pm and ending as sleet through 2pm, greatest threat above 1,000 ft.

Ice accumulation combined with gusty winds will lead to possible sporadic power outages today. The greatest threat is where a winter storm warning is in effect, especially across Marion and Winston counties.

So the forecast looks on track today with the greatest travel impacts this morning to the northwest and potential slick spots developing southeastward during the late morning into the early afternoon hours.

We will continue to keep you updated online and especially on Good Day Alabama!

We continue to track a strong storm system with a spring side that Alabama is enjoying today with highs in the 70s and a winter side where there is snow, ice and temperatures in the 20s. That cold snap and wintry precipitation moves in on Thursday!

Which means a period of freezing rain is possible that might create some slick spots on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses and across the higher terrain.

Travel troubles likely tomorrow in the red shaded area where the most ice is expected and where temperatures will be colder for a longer duration.

When to expect freezing rain?

Lamar, Marion, Winston, Fayette, Walker, and Cullman counties any time after 3pm from northwest to southeast. The threat increases southeastward slowly during the mid-morning hours.

The changeover by noon may extend as far south as the I-59 corridor, especially across elevated surfaces. The amount of icy spots will decrease the farther south you go.

Precipitation wraps up quickly on Thursday afternoon and the threat for frozen precipitation drops off dramatically. At that point will be watching for the freezing of residual moisture, especially up north.

Here's a look at how much freezing rain and sleet we are expecting. Due to a very warm nose aloft we are now leaning more towards a freezing rain rather than a sleet or snow event at this point in time.

Marion, Winston, western Cullman, northern Lamar, northern Fayette, & northern Walker counties could see over a quarter of an inch of freezing rain (coating of ice) and up to 1 inch of sleet (ice pellets that bounce).

The amounts possible drop off significantly the farther southeast you live and so the impacts won't be as extreme. That's not to say that you won't encounter slick spots if you are traveling tomorrow. Remember that bridges and overpasses freeze first and especially elevated surfaces like trees, power lines, vehicles etc.

With the higher threat for freezing rain, the concern for potential power outages increases and mainly across the counties under a winter storm warning. Gusty winds during the morning and afternoon hours will increase that threat. So if you live in Lamar, Marion, Fayette, Walker, Winston or Cullman county, be ready for potential outages and if you don't have to travel tomorrow then don't.

We will continue to keep you posted online, on the blog and on Fox 6! Stay with us for more updates around the clock on this approaching winter storm system.

We continue to track a winter storm system that's slowly approaching. We'll remain on the warm side of the system through Wednesday night with highs in the 70s most places. Off and on showers and even a few storms will be possible during that time frame.

Cooler air filters in from the northwest overnight and lagging precipitation behind the cold front will changeover to freezing rain and sleet. The greatest accumulation and travel impacts are expected across the counties under a winter storm warning including, Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Cullman and Blount counties.

Counties to the south and along the I-59/I-20 corridor are under a freezing rain advisory from 3am Thursday through 3pm Thursday.

TIMING THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER:

The air will be colder for a longer period of time across the counties under a winter storm watch which means a greater threat for accumulation and problems developing on roadways. Farther southeast, the biggest concern may set up on elevated surfaces and above 1,000 feet elevation where the air will be at or below freezing first and for the longest. Remember, we are coming off of a very mild stretch so it's going to take several hours below freezing for precipitation to really become an issue.

MARION, LAMAR, WINSTON, WEST FAYETTE, WEST WALKER AND WEST CULLMAN COUNTIES:

Freezing rain and sleet arrives mainly after 3AM.

First across the higher terrain and then down to the lower elevations by 6AM Thursday.

MARION, LAMAR, WINSTON, FAYETTE, WALKER, CULLMAN, & BLOUNT COUNTIES:

Freezing rain and sleet arrives as far south as Blount county to Pickens

Greatest threat for icy spots at higher elevations.

I-20/I59 CORRIDOR:

We'll likely see the mixed precipitation impacting parts of the I-59/20 corridor after 9am and especially by noon.

Elevated surfaces will see the best chance for possible slick spots

A glaze may form along the higher terrain with even some sleet possible

ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20:

A rain, freezing rain, sleet mix will be possible

Mainly at higher elevations

Isolated slick spots can't be ruled out

Light amounts

HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES:

The air at the surface may be above freezing resulting in just rain

Above 1,000 feet it will be below freezing resulting in freezing rain or sleet

So that's why higher elevations are at a greater risk for ice than lower elevations

Remember that snow will be falling through a warm layer and melting and then either having time to freeze into a glaze on surfaces that are below freezing or having time to freeze back into ice pellets called sleet.

ICY PATCHES ON THURSDAY:

NUMEROUS IN RED

SCATTERED IN ORANGE

ISOLATED IN YELLOW

We are going to continue working on this tricky accumulation of freezing rain and sleet forecast. The heaviest sleet looks to set up for counties under the watch. Perhaps 1" at quick glance, especially across Marion and northwest Winston counties. First on elevated and grassy surfaces. Freezing rain amounts could range from as low as a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Due to gusty winds and the threat for freezing rain, power outages will be possible. I don't think a widespread threat, but enough of a threat that you should prepare for it.

Ok that's the scoop so far.... We are going to continue to look over data and fine tune the forecast.

03/03/2015

We are tracking a warm front slowly lifting northward across Alabama and is visible both by looking at the temperature sensors and satellite imagery.

Not everyone is going to get to enjoy highs in the 70s this afternoon, but areas especially south of I-20 should. Unfortunately it looks like quite a dreary day continuing to the north of the front. Expect low clouds, fog and showers to continue to the north of the warm front.

Wednesday, the warm front continues to lift northward and allows all of Central Alabama to warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

We'll be tracking the movement southward of a strong cold front on Wednesday night through Thursday. The model assessment of the cold air still wavers some between models but we believe that enough cold air will filter in at the surface across northwest Alabama for precipitation behind the front to changeover to sleet and freezing rain. This changeover may take until daybreak across our northwestern counties and closer to 9AM across the higher elevations of Alabama near the I-59/20 corridor.

That's threat number 1 of a 2 punch happening on Thursday! If you live or plan on traveling at elevations above 1,000 ft, anticipate icy spots developing during the mid morning hours on Thursday. During the evening hours, below freezing air pushes even farther southward and any residual moisture around will likely freeze resulting in slick spots anywhere across the Fox 6 viewing area. That's punch number 2!

So at this point, it looks like two zones set up for the greatest chance for travel impacts on Thursday.

Higher Elevations: Temperatures look to dip below freezing from 1,000 ft and higher during the mid-morning hours and any lingering precipitation falling during that time frame would likely freeze into a light glaze on elevated surfaces and bridges and overpasses could see some slick spots developing too. Higher elevations in Jefferson, northern Shelby, St. Clair, Blount, Etowah and Cherokee counties.

THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IMPACTS:

All of the Fox 6 Viewing Area: Any residual moisture will likely freeze as temperatures plummet below freezing. The only saving grace from widespread issues will be gusty winds to help dry up area roadways.

We'll continue to update you as we track this developing storm system... Subtle changes to the forecast and fine tuning will likely occur leading up to the event.

STRONG WIND GUSTS PLUS AND MINUS:

PLUS= Wind gusts over 20 mph will help to dry roadways faster

NEGATIVE= Could knock down tree limbs and cause sporadic power outages

Just prepare for the worst case scenario so you aren't caught off guard if you happen to lose power for a few hours on Thursday.

03/01/2015

We are ahead of an approaching cold front which is situated across the Central Plains on this Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, a band of showers continues to develop and track towards the east and northeast. West Alabama will likely see a little wet weather this morning through noon, especially areas west of the I-59/20 corridor. Spotty rain can't be ruled out at any point today though many locations to the east of I-65 and south of I-20 will remain dry for several hours. The main round of rain associated with the front impacts everyone tonight through Monday morning before exiting.

The cold front stalls out across the state on Monday and then lifts back northward as a warm front on Tuesday. That will mean a chance for showers in the morning and then dry and very warm conditions in the afternoon. Highs most places will climb into the 70s and if enough sunshine is realized then temperatures could push 80° to the south of I-20.

The most active weather settles in on Wednesday as a strong cold front moves in from the northwest. A heavy band of rain with embedded storms moves in during the day. We can't rule out a few strong storms but the primary threat from the activity at this time appears to be heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding and ponding of water on the roadways. 1" to 2" of rainfall is expected with isolated higher amounts. The timing of this system varies between models and we might need to adjust the time later. Plan on wet weather as early as Wednesday morning across north Alabama and during the afternoon to the south.

The big questions once this front passes by and colder air starts filtering in are, how far south with the freezing line track and will lingering precipitation have enough time to freeze and create slick driving conditions?

We could have a situation where below freezing air undercuts warm and moist air aloft and if several hours of this type of weather occurs then objects that start to cool to the freezing mark will begin to form a glaze of ice. Again, just because the temperature drops below freezing doesn't mean an instant freeze if it's still raining outside. Remember, when you stick a tray of water in the freezer, it takes several hours for the water to freeze. If this worst case scenario were to pan out then several things would have to come together seeing we will be coming off of a very wet and warm stretch.

There is still a ton of uncertainty at this point. I understand that the GFS and the EURO models have been showing the freezing line positioned very far to the south, but these models have not performed well at all this winter. The NAM is finally on board through 6pm Wednesday and based on the latest data the freezing line is much farther to the north than compared to the other models.

So at this point and based on the data, here's our forecast for freezing rain and or sleet on Thursday morning:

By Monday morning, the NAM will show the simulated radar and freezing line position all the way through Thursday morning and at that point we should have a pretty good idea as to the chance for freezing rain and potential impacts.

Keep checking back for additional updates as we track this developing storm system!

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