Accessible Version

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2009 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 29, 2010; this information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.

Change in real GDPPercent

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Longer Run

Actual

2.7

2.4

2.5

-1.9

0.0

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.0

4.7

5.0

3.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

3.5

4.5

4.5

2.8

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.8

3.4

3.5

2.5

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.3

2.7

3.0

2.4

Unemployment ratePercent

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Longer Run

Actual

5.0

4.5

4.8

6.9

10.0

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

10.0

8.8

7.6

6.3

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

9.7

8.5

7.5

5.2

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

9.5

8.2

6.6

5.0

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

8.6

7.2

6.1

4.9

PCE inflationPercent

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Longer Run

Actual

3.3

1.9

3.6

1.7

1.3

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.0

2.4

2.0

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.4

1.1

1.3

1.7

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.5

Core PCE inflationPercent

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Actual

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.0

1.5

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.0

2.4

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.7

1.9

1.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.1

1.0

1.2

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.0

0.9

0.8

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2010

2011

2012

Longer Run

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

2.0 - 2.1

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

2.2 - 2.3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2.4 - 2.5

2

3

0

1

0

0

8

8

2.6 - 2.7

0

0

1

0

0

0

3

3

2.8 - 2.9

1

1

0

0

0

1

5

5

3.0 - 3.1

3

4

1

1

2

1

1

1

3.2 - 3.3

1

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

3.4 - 3.5

7

4

1

1

3

3

0

0

3.6 - 3.7

1

2

0

0

0

1

0

0

3.8 - 3.9

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

4.0 - 4.1

1

1

2

3

3

2

0

0

4.2 - 4.3

0

0

3

1

1

0

0

0

4.4 - 4.5

0

0

6

7

5

4

0

0

4.6 - 4.7

0

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

4.8 - 4.9

0

0

0

0

2

3

0

0

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

1

2

0

0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2010

2011

2012

Longer Run

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

January
projections

November
projections

4.8 - 4.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

5.0 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

11

5.2 - 5.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

4

5.4 - 5.5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.6 - 5.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5.8 - 5.9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6.0 - 6.1

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

6.2 - 6.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

6.4 - 6.5

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

6.6 - 6.7

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

6.8 - 6.9

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

7.0 - 7.1

0

0

0

0

3

4

0

0

7.2 - 7.3

0

0

1

1

2

3

0

0

7.4 - 7.5

0

0

0

0

3

4

0

0

7.6 - 7.7

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

0

7.8 - 7.9

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

8.0 - 8.1

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

8.2 - 8.3

0

0

6

6

0

0

0

0

8.4 - 8.5

0

0

5

3

0

0

0

0

8.6 - 8.7

1

1

2

5

0

0

0

0

8.8 - 8.9

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

9.0 - 9.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.2 - 9.3

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.4 - 9.5

9

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.6 - 9.7

5

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.8 - 9.9

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

10.0 - 10.1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10.2 - 10.3

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.