Congress 2010

October 04, 2010

A majority of North Carolinians continue to be unhappy with Bev Perdue's job performance and the relationship between that and likely Republican legislative gains this fall shouldn't be underestimated.

Perdue's the face of Democrats in state government and her approval rating continues to languish at 35% with 51% of voters disapproving of her. She's starting to see some improvement in her numbers with her own party's voters, pushing her favor with Democrats to 57%. But she continues to be toxic with independents at a 25/64 approval spread and whatever limited appeal she may have ever had to Republicans is gone. Only 8% of them like the job she's doing.

When you have a highly unpopular Governor that's going to take a toll on your party's legislative candidates and Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That's fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they're planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they'll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.

If Republicans really do end up having an 8% advantage on the legislative vote in November they will almost definitely gain control of both the House and the Senate. But many legislative Democrats have a long history of outperforming the general leanings of their districts and if that remains the case again this year the party could narrowly retain control.

Back to Perdue's numbers- while her approval rating is better than it has been some months over the last year and a half what might be most distressing for her is that just 18% of voters in the state think she's improved on her first year performance during her second year in the Governor's mansion. 27% they think she's gotten worse and 55% feel she's doing about the same, which is not a good sign given how dimly voters viewed her after year one. Part of her problem may be a failure to communicate with average voters. 48% think her communications efforts have been ineffective while only 36% think she's doing a good job on that front.

Perdue still has time to rehabilitate her image for her own reelection campaign but it looks like it's too late for her to be anything but a liability for Democratic candidates across the state this fall.

October 01, 2010

Raleigh, N.C. – With four Democratic-held seats and one GOP seat in play in Illinois, Republicans have pulled to a tie with Democrats in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, with 44% preferring each party. Democrats led in August, 46-40. Republicans have become more unified—now at 94-1 versus 88-6 in August—and Democrats less so—now at 83-8 versus 90-3—but Democrats’ saving grace is that, as in the gubernatorial race, undecided independents have moved toward the Democratic candidates. Republicans still lead among unaffiliateds, at 41-32, but that is down from a 40-25 edge last time.

Former Governor Rod Blagojevich is almost unanimously reviled, with an 8-83 mark, now taking his place as the most hated person PPP has ever polled in his home state from Levi Johnston and, previously, John Edwards.

Poised to resign as White House Chief of Staff today and announce a bid for mayor of Chicago, former Illinois congressman Rahm Emanuel is far less liked than his current boss, with a 29-50 favorability rating to Obama’s 44-49 job approval grade.

Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., who had considered a mayoral bid until a personal scandal cropped up, is almost as disliked as Blago, at 10-73.

When asked which race they are most excited to turn out and vote for, Prairie Staters narrowly choose the gubernatorial contest, 29-26, over the Senate race. But that is simply on the backs of Republicans, who seem much more enthused about Bill Brady than Mark Kirk, choosing the race to beat Pat Quinn by a 38-26 margin. Democrats, at 27-26, and independents, at 26-22, narrowly favor the Senate race. Independents are most likely to be excited about the congressional races, 12% of them choosing those contests, versus 8% of Republicans and 6% of Democrats. 11% of Democrats are most amped-up about local races, with only 5% of independents and 4% of Republicans saying the same. This fits the general picture of this election—Republicans nationalizing the midterms, and Democrats trying to keep it local.

PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the election for Congress was today, wouldyou vote for a Democrat or a Republican?Democrat ........................................................ 44%Republican...................................................... 44%Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q2 Between the Senate race, the Governor’s race,the US House of Representatives race, thelegislative races, or some local race which oneare you most excited about voting for this year?Senate race .................................................... 26%Governor's race .............................................. 29%U.S. House race ............................................. 8%Legislative races ............................................. 2%Some local race .............................................. 7%Not sure .......................................................... 28%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 39%Barack Obama................................................ 54%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,moderate, or conservative?Liberal ............................................................. 23%Moderate......................................................... 40%Conservative................................................... 37%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 55%Man................................................................. 45%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 42%Republican...................................................... 32%Independent/Other.......................................... 26%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 8%30 to 45........................................................... 27%46 to 65........................................................... 43%Older than 65.................................................. 22%

-I think the scariest statistic for Democrats in our Illinois poll this week was the generic Congressional ballot- a 44-44 tie. That seems like it should be impossible in such a strongly Democratic state but 94% of Republicans are committed to voting for their party while only 83% of Democrats say the same for theirs and independents are going toward the GOP by a 41-32 margin as well. Other recent polls we did found Democrats trailing on the generic ballot in Michigan by 7 points, in Ohio by 6 points, and in Pennsylvania by 9 points. It's staggering to think about how many House seats the party could lose in the Midwest alone.

-One politician whose popularity really impresses me is Dick Durbin. He's one of the few Senators we've found with a 50% or better approval rating at any time this year (our August Illinois poll) and was at 46% on our survey there this week, still well ahead of the curve in this political climate. What makes Durbin's numbers remarkable is not really how they compare to Senators in other states but how they compare to other politicians in the state. 46% might not sound great but when you compare it to 24% for Pat Quinn, 17% for Roland Burris, and the horrid favorabilities for Alexi Giannoulias, Mark Kirk, and Bill Brady he comes out looking amazingly popular in comparison.

We'll have Connecticut, Colorado, and New York polls next week- have a great weekend!

September 28, 2010

Last week someone asked me what poll data I would use to sum up what's happening in this election in the simplest terms possible. Here it is:

-On our last national poll 49% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse since Barack Obama became President.

-The folks who thought the economy had gotten worse who had already decided how to vote in November are going Republican by a 92-8 margin.

If voters think the economy's gotten worse under a Democratic President they're going to vote Republican. Add in the Democrats' enthusiasm issues and you have the formula for the big GOP victory that's likely on the way.

September 24, 2010

Raleigh, N.C. – With three U.S. House seats in play in Michigan, Democrats have to worry that statewide, Republicans have a 48-41 lead on the generic congressional ballot. The difference: Republicans are 39% of the electorate to Democrats’ 36%, and independents, which make up 25% of the electorate, go for the GOP by a huge 44-24 margin, though 32% of them are still undecided, far more than the 4 or 5% of partisans in that camp. The generic state legislative ballot follows a very similar pattern, with a 47-41 overall GOP edge. Republicans currently have a 22-16 lead in the State Senate but a 66-43 deficit in the House.

September 23, 2010

-Barack Obama's approval rating with this fall's likely voters in Michigan, where he won by 16 points in 2008, is only 42%. 54% disapprove of his job performance. Part of Obama's unpopularity with this fall's voter pool is a function of many folks who voted for him in 2008 not planning to vote this year but beyond that just 79% of people who did vote for him continue to support the job he's doing, a larger degree of lost support than we're seeing for him in most states. Independents disapprove of him by a 2:1 margin, 32/64.

-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 48-41, thanks mostly to a 44-24 advantage with independents. That can't be good news for Mark Schauer or Gary Peters, or for Democratic prospects of holding onto Bart Stupak's seat. The lack of competitiveness in the Governor's race really has the potential to stifle Democratic turnout and cause the party to lose other key races further down the ballot. What we're seeing in Michigan is a strong contrast to places like Texas and Colorado where a strong top of the ticket for Democrats has the potential to mitigate losses in other races.

-It is a very good thing for Debbie Stabenow and even Carl Levin that they don't have to stand for reelection this year. Levin's approval is a negative 40/48 spread and Stabenow's is even worse at 38/50. Independents are nearly as down on Stabenow as they are on Obama, with 60% of them disapproving of her and only 32% giving her good marks. With those kinds of numbers Stabenow seems likely to face a reelection contest in 2012 more reminiscent of her hyper competitive 2000 win than her relatively easy 2006 reelection- but if there's one thing we've learned this cycle it's that the political climate can see quite a dramatic shift in a short period of time.

September 22, 2010

-Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in California 51-38. Both parties have their base pretty much locked up- 89% of Republicans say they'll vote for their party's nominee and 87% of Democrats say the same for theirs. Independents split toward the GOP but only by a 34-29 margin much smaller than the party's seeing in most states.

I don't know how much the generic ballot tells us about whether any House seats will change hands in California this year, but it does show that Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are under performing their party's base numbers even if they're still ahead. Boxer's 8 point lead and Brown's 5 point advantage run well behind the generic numbers.

-In the Lieutenant Governor's race Democratic challenger Gavin Newsom has a slight edge over Republican incumbent Abel Maldonado, 39-36. Maldonado's doing what Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina haven't shown the ability to do- win over a significant number of Democrats. Maldonado's getting 17% crossover support. Newsom's winning overall though because he's keeping it tight with independents (just a 35-31 disadvantage) and winning 11% of Republicans, which is more than Boxer or Brown can claim.

-Voters in the state remain pretty evenly divided on gay marriage with 46% saying they think it should be legal and 44% saying illegal. That tightness is pretty consistent with what we saw on the Prop 8 vote in 2008. Despite the tightness of the overall numbers it's pretty clear that there will be strong support for gay marriage with the passage of time- voters under 45 support it by a 57-35 margin.

-Proposition 20, which is intended to reduce the influence of politics in redistricting, is polling way ahead right now. It's important to note though that 41% of voters remain undecided on it. With those who have made up their minds it's ahead 42-16 and enjoys pretty broad bipartisan support- a 32 point margin with Republicans, and a 23 point one with Democrats and independents.

September 15, 2010

Raleigh, N.C. – As November approaches, Americans are becoming more excited about voting, and a plurality has bought into the conventional wisdom that the Republicans will win control of the U.S. House but that Democrats will narrowly retain the Senate. By a 46-32 margin, registered voters think the GOP will rule the House next January, but by a much smaller 40-36 margin, they do not think that party will be in the Senate majority.

Predictably, Republicans are high on their party’s chances in both chambers, higher for the House, and Democrats are down, more so for the Senate. But independents think the GOP will net at least 40 House seats by a 47-33 margin, and do not think they will gain at least 10 Senate seats, 27-43.

September 10, 2010

-15% of voters in the state support seceding from the Union while 72% are opposed. 21% of Republicans and only 4% of Democrats support secession. Bill White actually leads the Governor's race 51-42 with voters who want to be Americans, but Perry leads overall because of a 69-18 lead with the secessionists. It's too bad for White that the secessionists don't go so far as renouncing their right to vote in American elections or else he'd definitely be the next Governor of Texas.

-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 52-39. In a lot of states Democrats are having trouble keeping their party as unified as the Republicans but that's not the case in Texas- 90% of Dems are committed to their party, equal to the 90% of GOP ones sticking with theirs. One reason the generic ballot is only slightly worse for Democrats in Texas than it is in Pennsylvania is that with the party's voters excited about Bill White at the top of the ticket there is no enthusiasm gap there. Even if White ends up falling short Chet Edwards and Ciro Rodriguez could be beneficiaries of his unusually strong campaign.

-Texans don't like Roger Clemens and they think he's a cheat. 19% have a favorable opinion of him to 27% unfavorable and by a 37/15 margin they think he used steroids to prolong his career. 48% had no opinion on whether Clemens used drugs.

-Barack Obama's approval rating is 40% in the state with 55% disapproving. Not good but not as steep a drop as he's seen in some other states. 88% of Democrats approve of him while 92% of Republicans disapprove, and independents are actually slightly favorable at 49/43.

September 03, 2010

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite expanding their lead to 47-41 over Democrats in the generic Congressional ballot, only 29% of likely Ohio voters approve of the direction of the Republican Party, with 55% disapproving, suggesting that their preference for the GOP is simply a vote for change, not a vote of affirmation or a mandate. Also supporting that notion: a 43% plurality finds the GOP to be too conservative, with only 29% seeing their views as “about right.”

And in bad news for Minority Leader John Boehner, only 28% of his home-state voters want him to become Speaker if Republicans take back the U.S. House, with 44% preferring “someone else.” GOP voters do support Boehner for Speaker, but only by a 54-15 margin. Democrats, who would not vote for a Republican majority anyway, oppose him, 73-6, and independents, 41-22.

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We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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