Japanese Coast Guard ships are shown near the Senkaku islands, also called the Diaoyu islands. Territorial disputes between China and Japan over the islands are growing more tense. (AP Photo/Emily Wang)

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The territorial dispute in the East China Sea has taken a step up. Japan has issued orders to shoot down foreign drones in its airspace, and China has vowed war if Japan shoots down Chinese drones.

The conflict is over the Senkaku Islands, or what China calls the “Diaoyu” Islands. The three barren islands have been under Japanese control since 1895. They passed to U.S. control following the Japanese surrender after World War II, but were returned to Japan in 1972.

Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave orders to the Defense Ministry to shoot down any foreign drones that ignore warnings to leave Japanese airspace.

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng responded on Saturday. According to Chinese state-run media Xinhua, “Geng said that if Japan took the so-called moves, it would be a severe provocation to China and an act of war, and China will take resolute measures to strike back.”

The next move could shape the future of the region.

“Chinese diplomacy has put Japan in a lose-lose situation,” said professor June Teufel Dreyer, from the University of Miami department of political science. “If they do shoot down a drone, then that’s an act of war by the Japanese. But if they don’t push out the drones and the surveillance craft, the Chinese will just take over the islands.”

Dreyer believes that China will use its typical strategy. She said it will likely press hard, step back, and wait for an incident that lets them criticize Japan, then push forward again.

She said Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which outlaws war as a means to settle international disputes, could be a crippling factor for Japan. She said, “I think the Chinese are gradually going to take over the islands.”

Edward Luttwak, senior associate at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and author of “The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy,” sees things otherwise.

He said it is against the Japanese character to retreat. He believes the Japanese will uphold orders to shoot down a Chinese drone if China tests the Japanese resolve.

From there, the ball will be in China’s court.

“They’re playing with fire, but I cannot bring myself to believe that the Chinese leadership would actually cross the threshold,” Luttak said.

He said one of two things are behind China’s threats. “Either the Chinese government has taken leave of its senses,” he said, or they’re using an age-old Chinese strategy “that you win by clever theatrical displays.”

Following the Japanese orders to shoot down Chinese drones in its airspace, on Monday China sent four coastguard vessels to the disputed waters.

If a conflict did break out, it could have a ripple effect throughout the Asia-Pacific region. China is involved with territorial disputes with most of its neighbors, including India, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia—and the possibility of U.S. intervention should also not be ruled out.

China has a lot to lose, and not much to gain. Luttwak said, “The tiny shooting incident would initiate a chain of major economic consequences.”

“It would bring to an end the cycle of Chinese prosperity,” he said.

Luttak said human folly has been a theme throughout history, but for China to sacrifice everything “for the sake of three rocks—that would be one for the records.”

The article above had assumed that China has much more to lose, even losing prosperity, when choosing to go to war. The presumption is wrong as it did not take into account that China consider territorial sovereignty to supersede prosperity or economic development. Any attack on her territory is exactly an act of war on China, regardless that US will be involved in the war. The US is the main protagonist against China, as Japan is only a vassal state of the US.

beowulf20

China has alot to lose. If China attacks any US installation when the US is in defense and proactively trying to avert war, NATO can step in and come to USA aid. China loses it’s major trade partners while inciting anger on it’s neighbor’s borders. Of course the US will take a hit in regards to the value of it’s dollar, but at least the American’s get their jobs back somewhat. No one will figure out who won till the dust settles.

jamesobh

What are you talking about? In a war, who doesn’t shoot. If US fights China, it will not be limited to the Pacific but will be escalated worldwide, and the war becomes WW3. Are you so sure that the US will still be around after WW3?

Kelly Driskill

Here comes the great Chinese navy to land its forces and extend its logistical support for the world wide military engagement. .yay oh..wait um they dont have that capability oops nevermind.

jamesobh

Just bring it on.

Kelly Driskill

It is unfortunately true that an oppressive totalitarian regime is better suited to sustian large scale protracted conflict.Though I doubt the Chinese want to see F~22 raptor squadrons show up over their country who would.I dont always agree. With our policies but part of what I love about being American is that we will”come get you” just ask hitler mussolini Hussein milosovic etc you will not escape…

jamesobh

Bring it on.

Kelly Driskill

Its been brought …American positions on regional hot button issues are well known to all…there are no mixed signals coming out of Washington. If their ready take senkaku…invade taiwan and crush south korea what are they waiting for?its all just rhetoric aimed at concessions in the political arena of regional and world politics.but youknow all this bbecause you’re obviously a “smart guy” .

jamesobh

It is evident from US’ actions in engaging her allies in military exercises, is preparing herself and allies for a coming WW3 with China. One event is very clear and it is that, China will still be participating in wars after WW3, and in the Last Days, participate as a member of the “kings of the East,” going into battle with 200 million troops. However, I cannot say the same for the US and her allies. The day when the US engaged China in a war, will the day of the beginning of the end of the US.

Kelly Driskill

China the great nation consistently conquered by tiny little islands(Britain japan) yup their a military powerhouse.

Charles Ramsey

What about these islands are so attractive? Is there gold on them? An air base? What?

beowulf20

Symbolism, but actually some nice rich fishing grounds and possibility of oil reserves on the sea shelf.

Damocles

According to Wikipedia:
“Japanese allege that Taiwan and China only started claiming ownership of the islands in 1971, following a May 1969 United Nations report that a large oil and gas reserve may exist under the seabed near the islands”

Kelly Driskill

I asked a japanese friend the same thing he explainded something thats not easily identified on most map projections simply put it allows a jump off point for china to threaten taiwan us bases in japan and japan itself

Juggling For A Cure

Hopefully China will determine that the Senkaku Islands are not just cause for war.

duffer

snapperheads will be snapperheads….

barry oldwater

the Japanese should build storage tanks there and put the radioactive water in them. Maybe let some leak out on the ground, oops, oh well it our island.

Kelly Driskill

Probably the safest way to to preemptively end all this foolishness…a sort of trumping foolishness if you will

hoe chiminh

To defeat red china without firing a bullet is by : “STOP BUYING CHINESE MADE PRODUCTS” !!!

Kelly Driskill

Its too bad america had to fall into war with Ho we could use someone like him now like when the vietmihn used to resue downed american pilots

Eileen Kuch

Israel’s been doing that – posturing/bluffing with regards to waging war on Iran over its nuclear energy program – for years now; and, it hasn’t yet done so. The Zionist entity’s a bully, just as China is. Both countries have nuclear arsenals, btw.

Kelly Driskill

Its not a bluff…

Kelly Driskill

Ok so if they dont want us there how about we take our ball and go home..the uniformed public resenting your presence is very different from an informed leadership asking you to leave..simply put those in the know know better than reactionary rabbles.yeah russias a superpower…I have a nice piece of ocean front property id like you to take a look at its in arizona but its breathtaking ROFL

Kelly Driskill

Theyre always bluffing..unless your some poor impoverished nation like india or Vietnam. Oh no the Chinese are coming the Chinese are coming…coming on what..theyre one outdated aircraft carrier. .ok lol come =)

Temujins

I am assure you chinese will not behave like this if Japan and others in the pacific asia armed with thermal nuclear weapons.

Kelly Driskill

No theyd behave even more two-faced than they due currently. ..but it is sad that like america chinas government does not express the will of the people its really the only thing they have in common…chinese hospitality is legendary its people uniquely great from antiquity onward…

jamesobh

You have got to have your knowledge of history upended to know that Communism is best for China. Democracy would have destroyed China from within.

kjdj

Connor,
Before criticizing another’s spelling please make for damn sure you have no errors in your own writing. I can spot several misuses of punctuation. To name one, punctuation marks go inside a quotation mark (not after).

Kelly Driskill

My geography teacher’s gonna be so mad at me lololol

Kelly Driskill

Thus a return to the status quo…and china knows this its just an instance of deflection to influence world politics…funny though I remember when Argentina made the mistake of underestimating British resolve behind “a few rocky atolls” and Margaret Thatcher sent the entire fleet of queen Elizabeth to maintain British territorial sovereignty. ..the fallout still rings though the Argentine national psyche…foolish for china to attempt the same play that Argentina did.

Kelly Driskill

Naw…

Kelly Driskill

“Arizona state” is a university goooooo sun devils!!! Lol rugettingit

Kelly Driskill

Being jaundiced by history and reality isnt nationalistic its pragmatic

jamesobh

US is inching towards her end as the days passes by. US knows it and that is why she wants to create tensions around the world and get into wars and go out of this world, in an explosive way. The coming WW3 will the last war for the US to leave her legacy for others to read as history lessons in school.

jamesobh

The US is in decline as a military and an economic powerhouse. The reign of US as a superpower will end after WW3. China, on the other hand, will continue to fight in wars after WW3, till the Last Days.