Fed Discloses Rate Hike Criteria It took a while for the markets to digest the latest Fed decision, but as we had expected, once the Fed experts had read the tea leaves, most came to the conclusion that the central bank is leaning in the direction of a rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting

BREAKING NEWSGVI Forex john bland 12:18 GMT 08/02/2015
- My ProfileNot a big decline but market will not be happy Monday to see the official PMI decline. Note the flash Markit PMI already fell sharply in July.

Latest Fed Meeting Has Some Expecting An Early Fed Lift-OffGVI Forex john bland 11:15 GMT 08/02/2015
- My ProfilePAR- I don't see any pressing need for the Fed to tighten now. The economy is growing at a lackluster pace and the job growth numbers are phony. one of the wonderful legacies of the our golfer president is that most of the new job creation is part-time and at near minimum wages. There has been a major structural change in the economy over the past decade. The internet has played a major role as well by eliminating a massive number of "middleman" jobs. There is no prospect for a return to inflation anytime soon.

The argument that the Fed Funds rate has to be moved higher so the Fed has room to cut if the economy slows down leaves me cold. So they get the rate to 1% and have room to gut back to zero. How is that going to help. Besides, Consumers are not seeing near zero interest rates anyway. The banks are pocketing huge spreads to rebuild their balance sheets. We are in a period of structural low growth.

A market setting up long dollars based on an increased risk of a September Fed rate hike was blindsided Friday, more by the extent of the reaction to US employment cost data than the data itself. This sets the stage for a crucial event filled week where Friday's US July employment report will be the highlight. See my trade calls for the week ahead.

Latest Fed Meeting Has Some Expecting An Early Fed Lift-Offnw kw 20:34 GMT 08/01/2015
“But, retail consumers are sceptical. They are holding on fresh orders. There was a good footfall when the price slipped from Rs 26,000 per 10g but then, demand disappeared suddenly as bullion dealers are expecting a fall to Rs 24,000 per 10g, which looks a possibility, looking at global markets,” said Kumar Jain, partner, Umedmal Tilokchand Zaveri.

India Ratings’ Deep N Mukherjee, senior director, corporate ratings, thinks it is one of the rare occasion when gold and the dollar would move in the same direction.

Fed Discloses Rate Hike Criteria It took a while for the markets to digest the latest Fed decision, but as we had expected, once the Fed experts had read the tea leaves, most came to the conclusion that the central bank is leaning in the direction of a rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting

I've read generally very positive things about it. It seems every other version is good as they correct the major design flaws in the previous one. I have also heard that it is "buggy" so you might want to wait a while before loading it to your primary machine until the fixes are sent through.

Australia Heading Towards An Avoidable RecessionSydney ACC 06:57 GMT 08/01/2015
Here we are two years after the peak in the greatest mineral boom in Australia's history and what do we have to show for it. Pretty much nothing at all.
By the way there was another interesting article published today about the failure of Australia's businesses investing offshore when the AUD was above parity. Mind you the success many of our companies have had investing overseas has been appalling over the years except for only a couple of examples. CSL which morphed out of Commonwealth Serum Laboratories springs immediately to mind.
A major problem we've got is that we've had second-rate politicians for much of the post-war period. That includes both parties. The standard though currently is the worst its been in my lifetime. I got the vote when I was 22 after Whitlam reduced the voting age. Too young in 1972 to vote in the election of that year.
You mentioned Libs. Peter Costello had to fight John Howard yo retain what surpluses they brought down. Howard if he had his way would have given the whole lot back.
Labor well the $1,000 handout was brilliant that would have saved economy on its own. The Education Revolution saw good school buildings pulled down for replacements, the insulation fiasco and NBN. All a waste where politicians for once tried to do too much. Money should have been invested in universities and hospitals. Universities are an investment in the future, hospitals will be needed in the future. Our hospitals could be doing what the universities are doing now, catering to foriegn needs. High tech export industry.

To be honest Labor + Greens have stuffed Australia Economy Proper..the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd SHAM....the waste of Aussie Golden Commodities era are blown on Insulation Crap, Education Revolution, laptop for Kids, GFC bonus, NBN and the mother of all CARBON Tax... all up $300 Billion from a money in the Kitty saved by the Libs before they losy power of $20 Billion......Like I paid off my $1million dollar House + $20k in the bank and 6 years later.... My house has a debt of $3 Million and I am struggling to meet repayments and I should blame the Liberals money management for it.

I am at a point of concluding..>WE need super fast train across the capital cities and water from north Darwin down to south via PIPE..and Blow the Debt to $600 Billion.... AT Least I can benefit from Cheaper travel across the capital cities and better to have Labor-Greens come into power again with nothing to show blow the Debt to $700 Billion then.......Whnen all these infrastructure in place, I could not care less of Xenophone, Lambie, PUP, Greens, Labor, Libs and all those loonies.... If China can have Super Fast train....Its a Shame Australia have failed to improve their Transport infrastructure and water security....for 50 years.... I can then build houses across with ocean view Australia for $100,000 and Sell to China for $1,300,000 all over Australia...all along the coast .... That is how you Budget repair the Labor-Greens-Gays-Loonies $300 Billion Debt....Good luck...More taxes and less free lunch ahead...and less pension but higher living and health care cost!!..rant for the day! There is no hope from this point for Australia to pay the debt like USA debt!

What he reports of John Key's comments plus his own observation encapsulates what is really wrong with Australia. Its the political leadership of this country which is dragging the nation towards a recession. There is no confidence in the government or for that matter in the federal opposition.

New Zealand's Prime Minister, John Key, brought the clarity of an outsider to Australia's situation with his observation in Friday's Financial Review: "How come, generally speaking, Australians are a bit down in the mouth at the moment? And I think it's not an economic issue, it's a confidence issue," Key diagnosed.
"Australia hasn't had a recession since 1991, but they are sort of displaying the physical ... temperament that they are sort of in recession, even though they are not. And in a way, we've got a bit of a contrast over here."
Australia is suffering not an economic recession but a political one. The difference, of course, is leadership. Key is a conservative leader who is trusted and supported to make serious reforms. The confidence he generates carries his country's economy.
Abbott is a conservative Prime Minister who is neither trusted nor supported. He is a source of despair among the business community and a depressing factor on investment.

WIN 10Livingston nh 01:08 GMT 08/01/2015
Fwiw- I put WIN 10 on a test computer - using the new EDGE browser (successor to Internet Explorer) this site works ok but still here and elsewhere there are JAVA (charts) and some Flash problems w/ new browser (like the WIN 8 app version of IE) -- IE ver. 11 still works in WIN 10 // so far I have had no problem w/ the brokers (2) or funds (3) but my primary computer won't see WIN 10 for a while yet

I didn't lose anything on installation BUT BACK-UP just because

The EDGE browser is pretty quick on the PC but I haven't used it on a touch screen yet

All aboard the Bandwagon .dc CB 21:20 GMT 07/31/2015
“You could see a huge amount of shares flashing at the bid or offer for one second -- and disappear the next,” said William Wong, the head of institutional sales trading at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in Hong Kong.

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just YetLivingston nh 19:34 GMT 07/31/2015
DATA dependent like DRUG dependent -- if all data is important to the Fed than no data is important; this is reflected in the Media circus around the ECI // the Fed thinks it is being cute by not giving the market a firm target or a firm date we will see how this plays out in the next two months // August is a Month of Mischief (think Yeltsin, Saddam, LTCM, Ruble, Bear, Gspan 87, Jackson Hole)

loonie. looks like closing abv lt res of 13066. tgt is a massive 1.5/1.6. thats just technicals, as wheteher fundamentals allow thats another matter. still first tgt on close abv 13066 would be 13262 a prev low, that would be doable nxt week before a deserved pullback.
euro. mother of all wicks on daily candle, weekly also not great. makes 11018 initial res early nxt week with test of 10846/72 highly likely at some stage next week.

I heard a story earlier today that drilling continues to become more and more efficient meaning that the break-even oil price for drillers continues to fall. Falling oil prices mean falling inflation and that means continued pressure on selected central banks to maintain low interest rates.

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just YetGVI Forex john bland 18:28 GMT 07/31/2015
- My ProfileI posted a link to this article just because it is interesting. Although I still believe the FOMC wants to raise rates as quickly as possible, I feel they will be doing it despite the recent flow of data. Recent U.S. data have been mixed.

To be clear, this is not what I favor, but I still think the Fed tightens in September. Of course that is subject to decent Employment data next Friday and a month later.

Don't Panic About the New U.S. Wage Data Just YetGVI Forex john bland 18:18 GMT 07/31/2015
- My ProfileFriday's release of the Employment Cost Index brought crummy news: Wages and salaries in the U.S. rose in the second quarter at the slowest pace since records started in 1982. A look under the hood helps dissuade drawing any dire conclusions about the state of the labor market and the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September...

BREAKING NEWSlondon red 16:48 GMT 07/31/2015
theres some data ahead of the mpc which may or may not disappoint but i think mkt will be getting long gbp so better to go with flow on that one, easier to buy dips. look at how eurgbp came off after month end stopped at the fix. folk will use any blip in eurgbp to get long. cable has the usd rate side to contend with so its a more even fight but still worth buying on dips since the eurgbp dynamic feeds cable.

All aboard the Bandwagon .dc CB 16:08 GMT 07/31/2015
Earlier today, the SNB which is perhaps the most transparent hedge fund of all central banks and actually lays out its financial statements in a respectable manner every quarter, released its results for the second quarter (and first half) of 2015. The result: another absolutely epic loss, amounting to €50.1 billion ($51.8 billion) of which €47.2 billion on currency positions - a whopping 7% of Swiss GDP

the SNB holds 15% of Switzerland's GDP in equities!

We'll give the SNB credit: while every other central bank is loaded to its gills in stocks, few dare admit it. At least the SNB files a quarterly 13-F.

BREAKING NEWSlondon red 14:32 GMT 07/31/2015
cabel, eurgbp buying will stop around or after todays fix. as for cable, you know my view on it, its a buy on dips. shame we didnt test the sups today as would have set up nicely into nxt week.

I have not one scintilla of doubt that the western central banks have set us up for an even bigger version of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis/Recession - but this time rock bottom interest rates and large fiscal deficits will mean only one thing; QE will be stepped up to such a pace that you will hear the roar of the printing presses from Mars.

BREAKING NEWSlondon red 14:06 GMT 07/31/2015
abel, my gut usual is to fade sharp euro rallies and same here. it fails to build on strong techs time and time again so no need to fight that trend until it stops. the ones not to fade are the slow climbers, but not been any of those in euro for a long time.

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