Thursday, June 6, 2013

Utah Valley Marathon Preview

It’s time for yet another Utah Valley Marathon. For a review of last year’s Utah Valley Marathon, follow the link. Here’s a preview of the
2013 Utah Valley Marathon from the guy who finished a mediocre 856 out of 2056
runners last year.

We’ll see if I can run from mediocrity this year.

Goal time: 3:54

I included several factors when determining a goal time for
this year’s marathon, not the least of which was the excruciating pain I felt
last year towards the end of the race. According to every metric/race prediction
formula/running expert magical prediction, this is a conservative goal. My half
marathon times, number of miles at race pace, Yasso 800s and other random race
time predictors indicate consistently that I should be able to log a 3:50 race
time.

These indicators dictate, of course, that I train properly
for the distance by completing all my long runs and mileage goals, which I
have. Here are some tallies since January 1:

I’ve completed 19 runs of 10 miles or more.

About half of those were 15 or more miles.

The three longest were 19.15, 20 and 20 miles.

The two twenty mile runs were done on May 15 and
May 22.

So why the conservative goal? Long runs. I haven’t felt
particularly strong on the last two 20-milers. Considering how I did on those,
3:54 is a rather ambitious goal. My race plan, however, isn’t necessarily
linked to time, but to effort, meaning there could be a significant swing
(either way) in the results.

By linking my plan to effort—as dictated by heart
rate—I can account for weather and other things that pop up during a long race.

The plan

I’m using the results from last year’s race (4:12:57
finishing time) to shape my race plan this year. It is important to keep in
mind that I am a more capable runner now than I was a year ago. I’m looking for
the 4:00 pacer and letting him or her start out two minutes before I do, hoping
to catch him around the half way point.

Miles 1-7: Other than the final 10-k, this is the most
important section of the course. Last year I ran it in 58:35—too fast. I figured
since it was almost entirely downhill that I could get away with it. I was
wrong. 8:22 miles were still too fast.

This year I plan to steal these miles. I’ll strap on the
heart rate monitor and not let my heart rate get above 147. This takes discipline,
especially on rested legs, even more discipline perhaps than finishing the last
6 miles on dead legs. If I am able to master myself, these miles will seem like
nothing more than a nice warm-up.

Because the miles are downhill, I can keep
the heart rate down without going too slow. If I

can get these seven done in
under an hour (8:34/mile), I’ll be happy. I will not speed up, however, to
accomplish it.

But wait. That’s only 12 seconds per mile slower than last
year’s pace, which ultimately led to you wanting to hurl yourself into the
canyon at mile 10. Yes, but I am a much more capable runner this year than last
year, and if I’m not, that’s OK. I’ll run it slower.

Miles 8-11: Last year, I ran these four miles in 36:19. Pretty good
considering the two mile steep incline starting on mile 8. This stretch
probably led to my demise more than any other part of the course.

This is an OK
section to run a bit slower than goal pace. And I plan on it. I will allow the
heart rate to increase on the uphills. If it gets to 160, I‘ll slow down. Once
I crest the hill at the 10-mile point, I will give my heart rate a chance to
decrease before hitting my stride once again. If I can hit these four miles
around the previous year’s 36:19, I’ll be very pleased. If not, I won’t panic.

Miles 12-13.1: Last year, I did these two miles in 20:05. Why so slow? I
stopped at the porta-potties to take care of business. These miles are also
characterized by hilliness. I do know that the first half of this marathon did
me in. I finished it in just under 1:57. I had completed my last long run in
training four weeks before the marathon. The longest run I had done during that
month was 11 miles. I was cooked at this point.

That will not happen again.

If I finish the first half in under two hours, I feel good
about my chances of hitting 3:54, although the closer to 1:57, the better I’ll
feel. This is true if, and only if, I follow my race plan—especially the first
seven miles. I ran an 8:25 pace for 15 miles recently that included a 1:50 half
marathon. I also nailed a 1:49 half marathon on an extremely hilly course not
long ago. I ran a 1:52 half marathon on a recent 20-mile run (full disclosure:
I flamed out the last four miles).

All these efforts involved wind, heat, hills or a
combination thereof. Basically, what I’m saying is I don’t need to have perfect
running conditions to bag a 1:55ish half marathon, even if it is the second
consecutive one.

The key, however, is to not burn up the first half. I’ll
repeat this. The key is to not burn up the first half.

Miles 14-16: These miles, I believe, are mostly downhill. Last year I ran
them in 27:18. Mile 15 was my last sub-9-minute mile. By mile 16, I was done.

At around mile 15, I’ll check my heart rate only to make
sure I’m not red-lining. Otherwise, I’m running by feel.

Miles 17-20: The last significant uphill ends around mile 18,
notwithstanding some hilliness to the end of the canyon—the canyon feels
awfully confining at this point. I ran this section in 40:30 last year. If I
run it in 40:30 this year, I can forget about finishing in under four hours.
It’s during these miles I have to run that fine line between not burning myself
out, but keeping up a fast enough pace.

Miles 21-26.2: Last year I ran 21-23 in 28:12. I felt great.
I had pounded a Gu at mile 20 and was keeping up with the 4:00 pacer. I hit the
wall, hard, at mile 23, running the last 3.34 miles in 42:09. I didn’t see the
4:00 pacer after the mile 23 marker. I just wanted to finish.

I have no strategy for the last 6.2. Whatever I have left,
I’ll give. If it gets me across in 3:54, I’ll celebrate. If it gets me across
in 4:00, I’ll celebrate. If it gets me across alive, I’ll celebrate.

Food and Drink

I made a big mistake by not eating or drinking enough the
two days before the marathon. That will not happen again. Last year I stopped
at every water station. I won’t do that this year. But I will make a concerted
effort to eat more. I will grab a Gu at every opportunity and drink Powerade at
minimum every other stop.

On second thought, my heart rate monitor's been annoying me lately. I'm just gonna run by feel.