15. If there is a very well-known DFL candidate who is popular in the

area, there's a decent chance. Even though the district is +something Republican, Minnesota often votes in unusual ways, and the demographics in that district are changing. Turnout will make the difference. If GOTV efforts are strong and speak to those who don't normally vote, it's possible to turn the district, I think. In 2012, Bachmann barely scraped by. If the GOP runs another tea bagger, the odds improve greatly for the DFL candidate, I think. The teabagger influence is strong in the district, and conservatives dominate the caucus and convention system there.

We'll see. Since my district borders that one, I'm going to focus a good part of my attention on CD-6 this year.