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Tuesday, 28 February 2012

Next Question: Will Israel inform the U.S. in advance?

Jennifer Rubin may be a Pauline-Kael-type Romneybot, but I think it's fair to assume that she cares deeply about Israel.

Bloomberg reports: “U.S. intelligence officials who have met with senior Israeli officials concluded that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is increasingly likely, perhaps as early as this spring. Israel’s leaders, according to the officials, said they are prepared to act unilaterally without informing the U.S. in advance. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private discussions with the Israelis.”

The Obama administration’s natural inclination has been to privately and publicly pressure Israel not to act. But this is futile. No Israeli prime minister would entrust the Jewish state’s fate to an administration that specifically and publicly talks down the military option and that has refused to give Israel private guarantees that the United States will act militarily if other measures fail to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Complaints from Israel about the U.S.’s public engagement with Iran have pushed the White House to consider more forcefully outlining potential military actions, and the “red lines” Iran must not cross, as soon as this weekend, according to people familiar with the discussions.

President Barack Obama could use a speech on Sunday before a powerful pro-Israel lobby to more clearly define U.S. policy on military action against Iran in advance of his meeting on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, these people said.

Israeli officials have been fuming over what they perceive as deliberate attempts by the Obama administration to undermine the deterrent effect of the Jewish state’s threat to use force against Tehran by publicly questioning the utility and timing of such strikes.

Perhaps Obama will give assurance publicly or perhaps in private. But no pledge regarding U.S. action when Iran crosses so-called “red lines” is of much value when the Israelis and the United States differ in their assessment of intelligence and have different positions on the acceptable level of risk. What is extraordinary is the degree to which lawmakers are now weighing in and publicly rebuking the president:

“The Israelis are unnerved,” said Sen. Lindsay [sic] Graham (R., S.C.), who was one of five U.S. senators who had lunch with Mr. Netanyahu last Tuesday in Jerusalem. “They think the administration is sending the wrong signal, and I do too.”

Mr. Graham, a staunch Israel supporter, added: “The president needs to be reassuring to the Israelis that the policy of the United States is etched in stone: we will do everything, including military action, to stop a nuclear-armed Iran. I hope the administration when they talk about ‘all options’ will better define what those options are. We’re getting too far into the game to be overly nuanced now.”

Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), who also was in the meeting with Mr. Netanyahu last week, said he had never seen an Israeli leader “that unhappy.”

“He was angry,” Sen. McCain said. “And, frankly, I’ve never seen U.S.-Israel relations at this point.”

I didn't realize that the "excerpt" was almost the entire post! All that's missing is Rubin's summation. She seems quite definite on one point: "[Netanyahu] doesn't crave reassurance. He will act in Israel's interests."

In typical Jewish style, she ends with a question:

Really, does Obama imagine Netanyahu is simply another easy mark in one more “charm” campaign?

Yeah, I don't think Obama's standard "You should be thanking me" thing is gonna work with Bibi.

Comments

With this administration, telling the US about a strike on Iran in advance would be about as wise as the US telling Pakistan about the bin Ladin mission in advance. It would be leaked. It already has been essentially, no?

Good grief Israel cannot attack Iran successfully. First the element of surprise is gone, second how do they refuel?, third, the Arab nations will not allow an IAF fly over. Too many people watching too many Raid on Entebbe movies. Why not just tell the Persians the time and day when they will be attacking????