DRY DAYS AHEAD

He said high pressure systems were persistent and strong in average across the Southern Ocean, causing the cold front to dive away to the south, resulting in weaker westerlies and fewer cold fronts extending into southeast Australia.

Mr Ray said the bureau’s climate models in the past six weeks had seen a push towards El Nino conditions developing during spring, with the likelihood of one forming in 2018 about 50 per cent.

El Nino events typically start in winter or spring, through summer until autumn the following year, bringing frosts and early heatwave activity through spring into early summer.

“While a few weeks ago it was looking like it would turn back towards average in July, August and September, it's now moving away from that,” Mr Ray said.

Many farmers are comparing this year to 1982, which Mr Ray said was an El Nino year, from July to March.

In the short-term, Mr Ray said there was a weak to moderate cold front system shaping up for early next week, but it was likely to only provide a small amount of rain across the lower coastal zones.

“The outlook is not great unfortunately. It's dry and it has been warm, about one to two degrees warmer than average, so it’s going to be a relatively dry winter,” he said.

Soil moisture is well below average across much of the state as a result of low rainfall and higher temperatures, the clear skies, light winds, and dry soils have also increased the frost risk across SA, he said.