Demand for Russian grain to double by 2030

Farmers prepare to store harvested wheat in polyethylene bags at a farm operated in the city of Orel, Russia. Source: Getty Images

Demand for Russian grain might rise to 46 million tons by 2030. Russia’s production of grain could also double to 141 million tons by 2030, up from 71 million tons in 2012. To achieve these numbers, Russia would need to upgrade its agricultural technology.

The 46-million ton projection is contained in the long-term
forecast for Russia’s social and economic development up to 2030, as approved
by Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev. Overall, grain production might
increase to 127–141 million tons by 2030, up from 71 million tons in 2012.

Citing the forecast, Interfax reported that the increase in
grain production is expected to be driven by the expansion of the total area for
grain crops, from the current 106.2 million–111.1 million acres to 115.3 million
acres. Domestic grain consumption will rise, too, from 72.2 million tons to
81.3 million tons, of which 46 million tons will be fodder grain.

Existing facilities allow exports of 30 million tons of
grain annually, with only 60 percent (18 million tons) being in the high-tech
category. That is why realization of the strong export potential will require
new port capacity to be established and the port-serving transport
infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea Basin and the Far East to be upgraded.

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IKAR General Director Dmitry Rylko said that, while those
numbers were ambitious for Russia, they were quite achievable. Even so,
energetic efforts are needed for accomplishing this, otherwise the industry
could stagnate instead of rapidly growing, while competitors would not stand
still on the sidelines, Rylko said.

The long-term forecast envisages growth of Russia’s grain
production to 141 million tons, under a scenario for accelerated grain-market
development. This might be achieved by implementing modern agricultural
technology and investing in developing high-yielding grain varieties and
pesticides, which should double Russia’s average yield, according to the
forecast.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture figures indicate that
the world produced 2.2 trillion tons of grain last (productive) year, of which
wheat (Russia’s main crop) accounted for 697 million tons. The USDA reported that
global grain exports amounted to 153.3 million tons that season.