Sunday, December 19, 2010

SUMMARY:- Quiet expiration as stocks drift higher but many stocks look ready to move next week.- Tax compromise passage sets the stage, but the market just drifts.- Leading economic indicators round out the week of data.- Indices have tested the break over the November high. Now can they drift higher to year end, riding promised liquidity?

Blah expiration, but some good stocks look good.

It certainly was not much of an expiration Friday. It was "quadruple witching," as they call it, but it did not lead to many fireworks. Most of the action usually takes place earlier in the week. Wednesday was down, Thursday was up, and Friday was a wash like Monday and Tuesday. From the perspective of the indices, Friday was quite boring. Early on, it looked like a big open to the downside. The scale on the SPY is at 124.90, and the opening was down at roughly 124.80. Not a huge move. It started lower, drifted higher, and looks like that old low-to-high move. Everything looked fine, but the indices lost their mojo in the back half of the afternoon. They gave up a chunk of gain, and the Dow finished lower on a session of rather unspectacular gain. NASDAQ, +0.2%; SP500, < +0.1%; Dow, -0.6%; SP600, +0.6%; SOX, +0.67%; NASDAQ 100, +0.25.

There were no dramatic fireworks, but that does not mean there was no drama. Some stocks moved quite well. DECK broke out of its pennant with a nice, big break to the upside on solid volume. ANF had a nice move to the upside on volume. Sometimes volume will be accelerated on expiration, but not on all stocks. It is true for the big stocks, but small stocks are not part of the equation. Some moved but could not quite hold all the gain. RS had nice volume, and it had already been picking up as it broke out of its pennant pattern.

There were others stocks scattered around the market that are not brand name, but they are quality stocks nonetheless. EBIX made a nice break to the upside on rising volume. TIBX posting a break upside on nice volume. Some stocks are set up to move quite well if the market continues its move to the upside. The indices did not do much on the session (or on the week), but there were interesting moves by leadership stocks nonetheless. Some are breaking down, and many are still breaking to the upside.

It was a quite week. There is the drift higher after breaking the November peak, a lateral move, and then the test down to the 10 day EMA (lo and behold, that was right above the November peak), and then the bounce higher on Thursday off of that test. A break, a test, and the start to the move higher is pretty classic action in an upward-trending market. Perhaps next week we will get a continuation of this drift to the upside into Christmas and even to the end of the year. That sets the stage for what can or cannot happen in January. You never know when you have a rally up to the end of the year.

We still have a Federal Reserve worried about unemployment. Even though there is improvement in other economic areas, the Fed is focused like a laser on the unemployment rate. Until it sees unemployment improving, it will not get off the accelerator with respect to liquidity. We are promised liquidly through Q1 or the first half of next year, and possibly longer. Bill Gross of PIMCO says it could be another year before rates rise. We will see. For now, the Fed is bound and determined to bring unemployment down, and it will keep the money flowing. Now it is getting some help from the fiscal side of the equation as well.

There was not a lot of excitement in the market movement on Friday, and there was not a lot of excitement elsewhere. The tax compromise was passed, and the President signed it into law later in the session. The market did not budge on the news. I suppose it was factored in that the compromise would get the seal of approval given the elections and the dire state of the economy. Of course, this will be stimulative now even though it was not stimulative through the Bush years. At the end of two years, it will then cease to be stimulative. Is that an advanced economic equation? No. It is called the political-cycle equation. They are doing what is expedient now, and they will revisit it in two years and see whether it is expedient to extend or shut them down at that time.

In any event, they passed and there will be a bit more relief and some payroll taxes heading lower. It would be nice if they would throw in a bit of corporate tax relief. We have the worst corporate tax structure in the world. If we would reduce our rates down to, say, zero, we might actually see a boom in the US. They would never do that, however, because we believe and even the Tea Partiers believe that if you cut taxes you increase spending. Ronald Reagan disproved that. John F. Kennedy disproved that. They cut tax rates and revenue boomed. Indeed, when Bush cut tax rates the revenues boomed. Bill Clinton cut tax rates. People say he raised rates. He did, and that caused damage to the economy ultimately. However, he and his advisers were also smart enough to reduce capital gains taxes, and that offset the hiked marginal rate. It kept the economy going because it kept money flowing in. Revenues have gone up with every tax cut we have had. It is not a cost. We are not spending money. It does not increase the deficit to give a tax cut; it lowers the deficit because revenues rise more than they were when taxes were higher.

As noted, that was not exciting the market on Friday. There was not much exciting the market. There was a little M & A activity. The bank of Montreal was buying Marshall & Isley, but it did not excite the market that much. There were good earnings. ORCL and RIMM both beat the street. TTWO beat and performed quite well, gapping to the upside and moving nicely. It was joined by the larger cap brethren that did quite well on their own. Outside of their own numbers, that did not excite the market that much either.

Leading economic indicators were solid at 1.1% when 1.2% was expected. That was almost three times what was reported in October. Not bad news, but it was ho-hum. Boeing said it was going to add 4-5K jobs in 2011, and that still didn't get things that excited. It was just a day where the market had tested and was drifting higher. It was expiration, positions were being moved, and the indices were dull. Some stocks are in good position. They either moved well or put themselves in very good position to move well next week. That had me interested. We normally do not do a lot of buying on Friday, but we did our share. We picked up some shares in ANF. It had a nice move. We picked up some RS, and it is doing just fine. FCX bounced nicely. It has better volume and looks like it might be starting its pre-split move. SLB was up a bit, but it was not that much. I am looking for positioning for next week, and I have seen some good positioning.

Add that on top of a week that showed very good economic data. Retail sales were up 0.8%. A lot of that was gasoline sales, but there was buying ongoing nonetheless. New York Empire Manufacturing came in at 10.5 versus 3 expected, and a -11 in November. Industrial production rose 0.4% versus a -0.2% in October. Capacity hit 75.2 versus 74.9 in October. The Philly Fed came in very nicely at 24.3 versus 13 expected and 22.5 in November. There were some good moves the Philly Fed, for instance. The average workweek hit a five or six year high. There was outstanding news. It was not able to excite the stock market to big gains on the week, but we did get that bounce off of the test of the break over the November peak. That is important. It was not a huge move, but stocks are well-positioned to continue a drift higher into Christmas.

OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar posted a gain on the session, but it was down early on. It sold off and tapped near the 50 day EMA, but then it reversed for a gain (1.3186 Euro versus 1.3234 Thursday). It has been chopping around in a range since pulling back after its great run off of its low. It is trying to regroup and set a new rally. It could very well do that.

Bonds. Bonds continued their recovery on Friday. They were slaughtered over the past four weeks, but they bounced on Thursday and Friday they were running strong (10 year 3.33%, versus 3.43% Thursday). Bonds look like they are in a bounce. Obviously, you will get bounces in a downtrend, even in horrific downtrends. That is what bonds are showing at this point.

Gold. Gold had a tough week. It sold off sharply, but it is trying to catch itself at the 50 day EMA. It has caught itself there before when it broke its trend in mid-November. It looked like it was cooked and rallied back. It has done the same thing here, and it is trying to bounce off the 50 day EMA. It is looking heavy, but it did manage to post a gain on the session ($1,379.80, +8.80).

With the economy somewhat in recovery mode, there is a view that this will alleviate some inflation pressures. Really and truly, growth does alleviate inflation because there is supply; we avoid the supply/demand tightness that leads to inflation. Ultimately, there is a tremendous amount of liquidity out there that will cause inflation. While there may be a near term bluster in gold, it will move higher in the long term. There is a tremendous run from July into October, straight up. Since then, it has become choppier but has not broken down by any stretch of the imagination. It is still making higher lows. As long as it is making higher lows, it is hard to make the argument that it will fall. It looks choppy, and it takes a long time for a trend that is this strong to turn. It may do that. For now, it is holding the 50 day EMA and we will see what happens moving down the road.

Oil. Oil has been holding up well all week, and it was able to add some on Friday ($88.52, +0.82). It has been moving laterally all week after breaking to a high. It has not been able to get on track. One of the reasons is the dollar has been bouncing back and forth, trying to firm up. That had an impact on the price of oil, of course. As the dollar declines, oil prices rise because it costs more dollars to buy every barrel of oil. As the dollar rises, it takes fewer dollars. Oil prices do not have the rise just because the dollar is weaker.

Volume. It was a bland day. Volume was up 40% on the NASDAQ to 2.34B shares. It was up 100% on the NYSE to 2B shares. That is all expiration volume. It does not really mean a thing.

Breadth. Advancers were very flat, matching the session. They led 1.1:1 on the NASDAQ and 1.3:1 on the NYSE.

CHARTS

SP500. Taking a bigger view, there is the April peak, the selloff into the summer, the rally back into November that cleared the April peak. Then the market sold back, made a good test, and then rallied through November. As noted, it has come back slightly. It rallied up, flattened out as it got to the November peak, and then broke through. It has come back slowly and quietly, testing that move and holding at the 10 day EMA. It started to bounce on Thursday, and it added a bit on Friday. Nothing big on Friday, but it made a test that opens the door for it to drift higher maybe even to rally higher into the end of the year. That is the way it should work, although it has been quiet and hard to see. It makes a lot of sense.

NASDAQ. The NASDAQ made the break. It flattened out after it broke. It tested the 10 day EMA, held above the November peak, and it started to move back up. Nothing spectacular. Kind of quiet and hard to see, but that is what it looks to be doing.

SP600. SP600 was a bit more dramatic. They took the lead late in the year. They rallied through that November peak and really made the break through it. It flattened out more at the April peak, but then it broke through, tested, and now it is moving up. It added the 0.6% gain on Friday and is looking good compared to the large-cap indices.

SOX. SOX posted a 0.7% gain. It is the same kind of action. A break through, nice test to the 18 day EMA, and moving back up. That is what you would expect to see.

SP400. The SP400 does not look as pronounced at the SP600, but it did make a solid break over that November peak. It has been moving laterally. There is the test of the 10 day EMA, and now it is trying to move higher.

I do not see stocks in a position where they will roar ahead. It is the holidays, and there is a lot of liquidity in the system. They have run a good ways, but it has also tested recently. Let's drift higher and see where we can go into the end of the year. There are plenty of stocks looking good, so that makes sense.

LEADERSHIP

Financial. JPM is still pulling back into its trading range. Maybe it does not hold and make the break, but this is where you watch. There is a well-defined trading range. It is coming back to test. If it holds at the 50 day EMA, a lot of times you get the breakout of the trading range at that point. It has made several rotations in it. After that, look for a higher low to make the breakout. It is usually at a level like the 50 day EMA. It has never been able to hold at that level as it has come back. If it does, this is the first time it will have held there, and that will be in the upper half of the range and position to make the break to the upside. Always watch for that when you are looking at a pattern or a trading range that has been ongoing for quite some time; that higher low is often your ticket to a breakout.

GS had a pullback off of its recent highs. We will see if it can hold and make the next break to the upside. WFC had a nice test back to the 10 day EMA, catching up with it. That may send it back to the upside.

Industrials. Industrials have been enjoying very nice moves. Not so great on Friday, but they have had a good week and are testing back. CAT came back 0.5% on the session. No major damage done at all. JOYG announced great earnings on the week, and it gapped to the upside. It is not giving in on its gap. Whenever you have a gap, you look for the lateral move if it is a breakaway gap. Then as it makes the move higher, you can move into the upside. I will keep an eye on that one. CMI had a good week. A nice move higher, testing back slightly as the week ended.

Energy. Energy was chopping around the entire week, but SLB looks good and ready to move back up. HAL looks solid with a pullback. BTU looks solid. Look at that pennant that has formed on top of the other one. That could be gravy on a new break higher. I love the tight range, quieting down, and sitting right on top of the other consolidation. That is always a good indication.

Retail. Retail is still doing well. Some consolidation, some breaks higher. DECK consolidated and then made the break on Friday. LULU continued to move higher. It had a nice gap to the upside, tested, and it is taking off to the upside once more. Some retail is doing quite well. EAT is moving higher off of a test after a nice run to the upside. YUM is trying to stretch out and make a new move to the upside.

Semiconductors. Semiconductors had a pullback on the week, but that may present opportunity. LRCX pulled back one day, and then it is bouncing again. Not a lot of weakness there. NVLS is similar. It is working its way higher at the 10 day EMA, showing good strength. TQNT has a nice test, an ABCD pattern. We will see if it can make the break to the upside. It is not all wonderful. BRCM is struggling. It broke below the 18 day EMA on Wednesday, and it is having a hard time recovering

Technology. A lot of small names are doing better, particularly in the software area. EBIX started to bounce higher on stronger volume after a nice test of a break the lows. EPIC has a nice pattern and looks like it could make a further break upside. ADVS announced a split, and it looks like it may be ready to put in a pre-split run. The cloud computing was all the rage, with the FFIV and others moving higher earlier in the year. AKAM needed to consolidate, and it is doing that in this ranging ascending triangle. The neat thing about this pattern is AKAM made a big advance. It did give back some ground with a gap lower in late July, but it immediately recovered. Instead of giving ground, it is consolidating in a big triangle laterally. When it goes, it could go big. Today was a day the aggressive players could get in, coming off of this bounce. We will look to see if it makes the breakout above the upper trendline. Some old names are coming back, and some new names are starting to perform well and take the lead.

Steel. Metals have been an important player all week. FCX made a nice 1-2-3 pullback. A nice doji on Thursday, and it bounced higher on Friday on volume. That was our cue to move in. STLD made a very solid break higher. RS made a breakout upside. It did not hold all of it, but it is breaking out of its pennant. MTL has a nice bounce off of a 10 day EMA test.

There are stocks well-poised to move higher in a continued upside drift in the stock market.

THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. Volatility broke down sharply this week. Friday was a very sharp break. It was probably influenced by expiration, so I do not want to read too much into it. It is worth noting that the last time it was this low was back in March and April of this year. When it got this low, the market rolled over and went into some serious selling. Looking at the SP500 chart, it peaked in late April and fell into the base that walked through the summer, and then it broke higher to begin the fall. At this level, volatility can be an issue. We will see what happens. There is a lot of complacency. People are not buying much protection out there because they assume the market will go up. That is part of the problem. When everyone who will be in the market gets in and they think nothing can go wrong, most of the money is put to work. At that point, that is when you can have pullbacks in the market.

Many people are more bullish right now. The bulls rose to 56.8% of investment advisers versus 56.2% the prior week. It has been on a steady rise, and it is getting to the point of being a little more bearish. That is typically reserved for the 60-65% bulls range. At that point, most of the ammunition is used up. The bears continue to slide. They are at 20.5%, down from 21.3% the prior week. That is a significant drop. It has been hanging around at the 21% area for quite some time, and it is down from 28% in September. Bears are not looking too bearish at this point. You get around 15%, and that is really bearish. We are just running out of steam; it is not a sign that the locomotive is stopping and going to fall back on you.

VIX: 16.11; -1.28VXN: 17.31; -0.94VXO: 15.52; -1.74

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.78; -0.09

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 56.8 versus 56.2%. Moving up from a small dip the prior 2 weeks (from 55.7% and 56.2%), advisors returned to their bullishness, matching the peak on this move. Strong surge from 48.4% just a month back, the strongest move upside since May, indeed topping that level and getting closer to the 5 year high at 62.0. Moving toward the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 20.5% versus 21.3%. Back on the decline after bumping modestly higher as the market flattened out. Down from 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: +5.66 points (+0.21%) to close at 2642.97Volume: 2.347B (+41.15%)

Up Volume: 1.526B (+212.39M) Down Volume: 1.163B (+750.68M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1Previous Session: Advancers led 2.17 to 1

The market will be closed for Christmas Eve on Friday, so we have a short week. We also have a market that is not moving very strongly, but it has not lost its upside bias either. It tested midweek, and it started to bounce toward the end of the week. That shows the upside bias is still there after testing the breakout. There is a bit of economic data starting on Wednesday with the usual applications for the week. We have the third estimate of GDP for Q3, and it is expected to come in a bit stronger. There is some data that has come in better with inventories and that sort of thing. That is a positive, I suppose. Existing home sales will come in, and we saw new sales this week. Thursday brings personal income and spending, durable goods orders, initial claims, Michigan Sentiment, and new home sales. Talk about packing it all in before the end of the week and Christmas.

We will have a lot to deal with, and the question whether the market will just ignore it and drift higher as it did on Friday. As noted in the leadership section, there are many stocks in great position. They are moving up well or in position to move up well, whether it is a drift or a solid upside break. We do not like to buy that much on a Friday, but when good stocks are in position and look ready to move up and start the move, you want to get a good entry point. Then you have a nice exit point if it does turn against you. That said, I still think we will get upside because it looks positive moving into next week.

The market has an upside bias, it has the tax bill passed, and it has the Fed on its side. Europe continues to struggle, but China looks better, India looks better, and Brazil looks better. That is solid despite the drag of Europe and the US; indeed, even the US looked better. The manufacturing reports last week showed that things were picking up, as did other reports such as production and capacity. Despite all of the negatives, the economy is trying to move up and support what the stock market has shown for the past several months. The question is whether the stock market continues to move higher. There is the flood of liquidity, and there is the administration and Congress providing fiscal support by extending the tax cuts and lowering payroll taxes. That might provide more impetus for the economy to move up. If that is the case, stocks should move up a bit ahead of that, and that is exactly what they are doing.

Again, the break over the November peak, the test, and now just drifting back up. I would love to see a drift higher into Christmas and the New Year and bank some more solid gain. After all, we still have all that liquidity out there, and it could be a good 2011 as well. No predictions, though. We always take what the market gives. You cannot go too far out on a limb because it will always break underneath you. You need to follow what the market is doing, and you can anticipate a bit. You look ahead to find good patterns and good sectors. As they start to make the move, you move in. That is exactly what we were doing this week, and that is what we will continue to do. Enjoy your shopping and enjoy a great weekend. We will have a short week next week, but we will see if we can make some more money to help pay those Christmas bills.

Have a great evening!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2642.97

Resistance:2725 from July 2007 interim peak2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run2735 from late 2007 interim peak2862 is the 2007 peak

Support:2593 is the November 2010 highThe 18 day EMA at 25942580 is the November 2010 closing high2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak2550 from May and June 2008 peaks2540 is the gap up point from early November2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak2530 is the April 2010 closing peak The 50 day EMA at 25232518 is interim peak from April 20102511 is the lower range of the November gap up point2482 is the recent October peak2460 is the November 2010 low.2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.2425 is an interim peak from May 20102382-2395 from 20082324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008The 200 day SMA at 236-02341 is the June 2010 peak2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high2319 from the September 2008 peak2310 is the August 2010 peak

S&P 500: Closed at 1242.87Resistance:1278 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run1313 from the August 2008 interim peak

Support:1227 is the November 2010 peakThe 18 day EMA at 12221220 is the April 2010 peakThe 50 day EMA at 11971185 from late September 20081174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak1173 is the November 2010 low1170 is the prior March 2010 high1156 is the Sept 2008 low1151 is the January 2010 peakThe 200 day SM A at 11411133 from a September 2008 intraday lowBottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 11361129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks1119 is the early December intraday high1114 is the November 2009 peak1106 is the September 2008 low1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)1078 is the October range low1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010.1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows

Dow: Closed at 11,499.25Resistance:11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:11,452 is the November 2010 peakThe 18 day EMA at 11,34211,258 is the April 2010 peak11,205 is the April closing highThe 50 day EMA at 11,16711,100 from the 7-08 low10,963 is the July 2008 low10,920 is the recent May high10,730 is the January 2010 peakThe 200 day SMA at 10,69110,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low10,594 is the June 2010 peak10,496 is the November 2009 high10,365 is the late September 2008 low10,285 is the late December consolidation peak10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking10,209 is recent August 2010 low10,120 is the October 2009 peak9938 is the August 2010 low9918 is the September 2008 peak9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low9829 is the September 2008 closing high9774 is the May 2010 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.