Leaders debate future of South County's unincorporated communities

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To review the entire South Orange County Visioning Process plan, visit oclafco.org and download the Sept. 11 agenda. The plan is included in item 9(b).

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SANTA ANA – Will Coto de Caza, Las Flores and Wagon Wheel one day be annexed into Rancho Santa Margarita?

Will San Juan Capistrano get a piece of Rancho Mission Viejo, or will Ladera Ranch partner with its budding neighbor to form a new city?

These are among questions being posed as area leaders discuss – and at times debate – the future of South County’s unincorporated communities.

“While there are only a finite number of things that can happen when one looks at governance options, that’s the only simple thing about it,” Dan Kelly, a senior vice president with Rancho Mission Viejo, said during Wednesday’smeeting of the Orange County Local Agency Formation Commission.

Since emerging from its 1994 bankruptcy, the county has had a goal to shrink unincorporated areas, shifting its focus from local to regional control. In keeping with that goal, LAFCO – an 11-member board that oversees boundary and governance changes – on Wednesday unanimously approved a plan called South Orange County Visioning Process.

“It represents a roadmap for the next year on how staff sees moving this project forward,” Carolyn Emery, executive director of LAFCO, said.

The document lays out a two-phase plan to examine whether it makes sense for the swath of increasingly populated unincorporated areas to form special districts, join an existing city’s sphere of influence, get annexed into an existing city or incorporate to form their own city.

The LAFCO report identifies two primary study areas:

The first is Rancho Santa Margarita and the city’s neighboring communities of Coto de Caza, Las Flores, Stonecliffe and Wagon Wheel. Those areas are currently in Rancho Santa Margarita’s sphere of influence, but remain unincorporated with a combined population of more than 25,000 residents.

The second study area is Rancho Mission Viejo. The company that developed Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Las Flores and Ladera Ranch is building the first village in what will eventually be a 14,000-home community east of San Juan Capistrano. Rancho Mission Viejo will be built out in five phases over the next 20 years or so.

“We are across the street from the rapidly developing new area of South County, and as such, we just want a place at the table to share our thoughts and give you our input,” San Juan Capistrano Mayor Pro Tem Sam Allevato told LAFCO.

However, Supervisor Pat Bates and other local leaders have stated they believe the option that makes the most sense is for Ladera and Rancho Mission Viejo to partner and form a city.

Connor Traut with Ladera Ranch Civic Council told LAFCO his community has formed a local governance task force and intends to present its own vision to the LAFCO team down the road.

“It’s very premature to, kind of, go into some options for these areas,” Emery said. “It needs some full discussion.”

That leads to step one of the first phase of the visioning process, which is already underway.

Since March, LAFCO staff members have been doing outreach, meeting with leadership from the county, affected cities and the unincorporated communities to discuss service issues and sentiments about future governance.

Starting this month and until December, the team plans to enter the second phase: studying the numbers.

For an annexation or incorporation to take place, LAFCO has to find that the move won’t financially harm the county. That means the county’s cost to serve the communities when they were unincorporated has to be equal to or higher than the amount of tax revenue the county will stop receiving once those communities join another city or form their own.

The agency also has to determine that services – such as public safety, planning and code enforcement, road maintenance, street sweeping, animal control and trash collection – won’t decline if the boundaries change.

The county will be gathering data on how much it costs to provide services to Coto, Las Flores, Stonecliffe, Wagon Wheel and Ladera. Then staff will use long-term forecasting to predict demand as Rancho Mission Viejo is built out over the next two decades.

“You could come up with the greatest idea, but if you can’t fund it, it’s not going to happen,” said Commissioner Peter Herzog, a Lake Forest councilman. “Just ask Rossmoor.”

Herzog was referring to the last time an O.C. community tried to incorporate in 2008.

With little retail in Rossmoor, adjacent to Los Alamitos, LAFCO required voters to voluntarily take on a 7 percent to 9 percent utility tax to ensure services wouldn’t decline. Some 72 percent of Rossmoor residents said no.

The community remains unincorporated today, with the county still responsible for providing services to its more than 10,000 residents.

“If we’re going to have a solid governance structure in all of Orange County, and particularly south Orange County, it’s probably not going to be in reliance on the county,” Herzog said.

In January – with input and financial data at hand – the LAFCO team will start hosting discussions about future governance options.

“We really need to first look at the numbers, and then let’s have some discussions with everyone at the table,” Emery said. “Let’s do some visioning.”

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