Tropical Storm ERICK

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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OR STRUCTURE OF ERICK. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IS 35 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY FALLING
AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL.
THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT ERICK IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
275/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH LATEST TRACK MODEL TRENDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.2N 126.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.3N 127.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 129.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 130.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 13.9N 132.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 136.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 14.0N 139.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 14.0N 142.5W 45 KT
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