THREATS AND RESPONSES: NEWS ANALYSIS

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Published: February 6, 2003

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 5—
To convince allied nations that Saddam Hussein is trying to deceive United Nations weapon inspectors, the Bush administration today applied a tried- and-true strategy: it invoked the Powell doctrine.

When he was the United States' top military man, Gen. Colin L. Powell was best known for his doctrine of using overwhelming force. As the United States top diplomat, Secretary of State Powell today sought to overwhelm the critics with evidence, some new, some less so.

Without a smoking gun to demonstrate that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction, Mr. Powell's strategy was to make as comprehensive and detailed case as he could to demonstrate a pattern of Iraqi deceit.

He provided new details about Iraq's effort to develop mobile laboratories to make germ weapons. He asserted that Iraq has sought to hide missiles in its western desert. Significantly, he cited intelligence reports that Saddam Hussein has authorized his military to use poison gas if the United States invades.

The speech was vigorously argued and revealed an administration determined to use all means to make its case. But some portions of Mr. Powell's presentation appeared stronger than others.

The secretary offered much evidence that Iraq has weapons programs to hide, the primary justification for the administration's contention that military action will almost certainly be necessary to enforce the United Nations demands that Iraq disarm.

But Mr. Powell did not appear to make an airtight case that the Saddam Hussein regime is plotting with Al Qaeda to attack the United States and its allies, a main argument for the Bush administration's contention that the Iraqi threat is so urgent that a potential military campaign cannot be delayed.

''I think he made a strong case that Iraq is not cooperating with the United Nations and is in material breach of Resolution 1441,''' said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

But Mr. Milhollin argued that Mr. Powell had not demonstrated that the United States faced an imminent threat from Iraq.

''Just because there is a terrorist cell in Iraq,'' he said, ''does not prove that Saddam Hussein is ready to transfer mass destruction weapons to Al Qaeda for use against the United States.''

Citing foreign intelligence reports, Mr. Powell asserted that Osama bin Laden met with senior Iraqi intelligence officials. He added that ''extremists'' affiliated with Al Qaeda have taken up residence in Baghdad and set up a base of operations there. But a senior State Department officials stressed after the speech that the Bush administration was not asserting that Saddam Hussein was ''exercising operational control'' of Al Qaeda.

A senior administration official argued that Mr. Powell's presentation today had greatly strengthened the administration's case that Iraq has sought to deceive the weapons inspectors. But the official conceded that the administration had deliberately refrained from presenting conclusions about the significance of Iraq's links with terrorists, an issue that has been strongly debated within the government.

''It is what it is,'' the senior official said of the information on Iraq's alleged terrorist links. ''It is a series of facts. People will have to judge for themselves.''

The case Mr. Powell presented today regarding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, however, was remorseless. In general, Mr. Powell's task was much harder than the one that Adlai E. Stevenson faced during the Cuban missile crisis. Mr. Powell was not able to show a series of photos to settle the debate, but he did spend almost 90 minutes discussing information from intercepted calls, satellite photos, defectors and spies.

Trying to marshal the strongest evidence, Mr. Powell began his discussion of Iraq's weapons program by talking about biological arms, about which the United States has the most information. The administration had given Iraq's suspected efforts to acquire nuclear weapons more emphasis until the International Atomic Energy Agency began to challenge some of Washington's evidence.

Providing new details, Mr. Powell said that Iraq had developed seven mobile laboratories to make germ weapons. Most are hidden inside trucks but a few are on rail cars, he said. Mr. Powell displayed a drawing of the interior of one of the labs, saying it was based on information from several Iraqi informants.

Significantly, he said, Iraq has developed a technique for making dry biological agents. Addressing potential delivery systems, Mr. Powell disclosed that Iraq has an unmanned drone that flew 500 miles in one test. He also said that Iraq last fall moved rocket launchers and missiles warheads with biological agents from the Baghdad area to western Iraq to hide them.

Mr. Powell did not repeat the C.I.A.'s previous charges that Iraq has resumed the production of poison gas, but he argued that Iraq still had such weapons.

One informant, Mr. Powell said, had witnessed an experiment in the mid 1990's in which Iraqi prisoners were tied to beds and used as guinea pigs for poison gas tests. On nuclear weapons, Mr. Powell noted that some skeptics have challenged the Bush administration's claims that Iraq is striving to develop nuclear weapons. But he presented new details to buttress the administration's case. Presenting new information, he said that the United States has intercepted aluminum tubes that had a special coating that would make them useful for making centrifuges to enrich uranium.

Iraq, he said, has also approached Romania, India, Russia and Slovenia, trying to purchase a factory to make magnets weighing 20 to 30 grams, the same weight as the magnets used in its centrifuge program before the 1991 Persian Gulf war.

''I think what he did today was to buttress in great detail the basic argument been making form the beginning, that this is the last chance for Saddam to comply, that he has not taken it and that this is something we need to confront,'' a senior administration official said.

Even the skeptics had to concede that Mr. Powell's presentation had been an important milestone in the debate.

Critics may try to challenge the strength of the administration's case and they will no doubt argue that inspectors be given more time.

But it will difficult for the skeptics to argue that Washington's case against Iraq is based on groundless suspicions and not intelligence information.

Photo: THE VISUAL CASE -- This picture, said to show the Al Musayyib Test Facility, was one of several images cited by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell at the United Nations as evidence of Iraqi deceitfulness. Pages A18-20. (U.S. State Department via Agence France-Presse)