The global consequences of creating an Eelam

Roshan Paul

Now that Sam, in true avuncular fashion, has declared that it will not
support the partition of Sri Lanka and has moved a fleet close to the coast
in an ostensible show of support for the government, it is time for the
Tamil Tigers to pause for a moment. They need to conjure up a definite
means
with which to achieve their ends.

In the current global pressure cooker, the
only realistic way for them to achieve secession from the Sinhalese
government is, well, with the wholehearted blessing of that party. From all
the political propaganda emanating from the Emerald Isle, such a
concession
seems improbable.

The next logical option seems to be through
international
intervention, as happened in East Timor last year.

However, the LTTE must realise that such an intervention is unlikely to
happen.
The West is exerting pressure on India to intervene, as it can't allow a
prolonged conflict so close to home. A number of factors such as the
failure
of the previous intervention, the influence of India's Tamils and, most of
all, the fact that India herself is plagued by secessionist movements in the
north and north-east, all make India extremely reluctant to get involved
again; and especially averse to dividing up the country.

Thus, it is hard to see how Sri Lanka could go the way of East Timor
without
dragging in that presently very shaky entity -- the United Nations. For its
part, however, the UN is probably keen to treat Sri Lanka like the
proverbial hot potato.

The last decade witnessed three terrible UN failures -- in Somalia, Bosnia
and Rwanda -- that severely damaged its credibility as an agent of peace. It
is believed that the failure of the current peace ops would mean that the
UN's role in complex emergencies would, in future, be solely limited to
humanitarian aid. How tragic that would be! Of the four current missions,
Kosovo and Congo look doomed for several reasons -- and these two
missions
are very similar to what a UN undertaking in Sri Lanka would be like.

East
Timor provides hope and until recently, so did Sierra Leone.
Unfortunately,
the recent implosion in the West African nation once again exposed how
easily committed, well-armed guerrilla fighters can overcome weak UN
forces,
especially with the militarily powerful Western nations refusing to commit
troops. Thus, not only does the UN have its hands full but it also cannot
afford another failure.

In all of these missions, the UN's goal has been the achievement of
a politically stable, multi-ethnic, one-state. Secession is not encouraged.
Unfortunately, in several areas, it is increasingly looking like the only
solution. For example, keeping Kosovo multi-ethnic has been one of the
principle aims of the UN mission there. Unfortunately, one of the UN's
own
arms, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, recently
proclaimed
that it could not advise ethnic Serbs to return to Kosovo since it was "too
dangerous." This was a severe setback to the Kosovo mission.

The UN is reluctant to encourage secession for fear of creating a
Ripple Effect. East Timor brought us to the precipice of such a calamity. It
instilled in several separatist movements, perhaps even the Tigers, the
hope
that they too could achieve something similar. To use a nuclear metaphor,
dividing Sri Lanka could provide the critical mass necessary for a chain
reaction that would rapidly spread throughout the world.

After its East
Timor debacle, Indonesia faces secession from Aceh and Irian Jaya.
Islamic
separatist movements in the Philippines are gaining both in momentum and
level of violence. Besides Kosovo and India, even wealthy Canada
possesses
discontent in Quebec. However, most worrying for the UN is the potential
spread of such ideology to that most volatile of all regions -- sub-Saharan
Africa. If Africa, already poverty-stricken, politically unstable and
devastated by AIDS, were to further break up, the world would face a
crisis
of unimaginable magnitude.

It is also not proven that secession brings about peace. Time will
tell about East Timor but a border dispute has just driven Ethiopia to war
with Eritrea -- a former province that gained independence in the early
'90s.

For all these reasons, the member states of the UN have a real stake
in preserving the one-ness of Sri Lanka. Thus, it will neither encourage
nor
assist the LTTE in its secessionist endeavours.

The major political barrier for the LTTE is its location. The area
it wants to control is not of any significant global strategic value like
Aceh is. No pipelines flow through it as they do through Chechnya. It
possesses no valuable natural resources and is not likely to drag several
other nations into a war, both applicable to Congo. Thus, despite the
extreme brutality of the conflict, it has been unable to attract much
attention from Western media.

As a result, to procure international
attention, it has had to resort to violent actions such as suicide bombers
and targeting visiting cricket teams and foreign embassies. Such actions
only bring international condemnation rather than understanding and unlike
the Albanians of Kosovo or the East Timorese, there is virtually no
international sympathy for their cause.

This is not to say that their grievances are not legitimate. The
Tamils in Sri Lanka have borne the brunt of severe discriminatory policies
ever since the British left. However, the present international climate is
one in which violent extremism and separatism are anathema. They will
not be
tolerated. The LTTE need to re-assess their strategy and show that they
desire peace.

Only then will the rest of the world take notice of their claims
and only then will they be able to achieve some of their goals.

Roshan Paul is a third year undergraduate student at Davidson College, NC, majoring
in International Political Economy