Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest

Doctoral Dissertations

ABSTRACT

ESSAYS IN FINANCIAL ECONOMICS: ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS

PHD IN FINANCE MAY 2018

JAMES J FOREST

B.A., FRAMINGHAM STATE UNIVERSITY

M.S., NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS – AMHERST

Directed by: Professor Hossein B. Kazemi

This dissertation demonstrates the use of empirical techniques for dealing with modeling issues that arise when analyzing announcement effects in fixed income markets. It describes empirical challenges in achieving unbiased and efficient parameter estimates and shows the importance of modelling a wide range of macroeconomic announcement effects to avoid omitted variable bias. Employing techniques common in Macroeconomics, financial market researchers ...

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson (1992) and the Teräsvirta (1994) test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we examine the modification proposed by Ahmad, Lo and Mykhaylova (2013; Journal of International Economics) to show that the modified nonlinearity test performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange ...

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this paper, efforts will be made to study an extended Neoclassic economic growth model derived from Solow-Swan Model and Ramsey-Cass-Koopsman Model. Some growth models (e.g. Solow-Swan Model) attempt to explain long-run economic growth by looking at capital accumulation, labor or population growth, and in- creases in productivity, while our derived model tends to look at growth from individual household and how their choice of saving, consumption and money holdings would affect the overall economic capital accumulation over a long period of time.

First an optimal control model is set up, and a system of differential equations and algebraic ...

Economics Publications

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015.

Center for Policy Research

The results of Waldman (1982) on the Normal-Half Normal stochastic frontier model are generalized using the theory of the Dirac delta (Dirac, 1930), and distribution-free conditions are established to ensure a stationary point in the likelihood as the variance of the inefficiency distribution goes to zero. Stability of the stationary point and "wrong skew" results are derived or simulated for common parametric assumptions on the model. Identification is discussed.

Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Since the pioneering work of von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1944 there have been many developments in Expected Utility theory. In order to explain decision making behavior economists have created increasingly broad and complex models of utility theory. This paper seeks to describe various utility models, how they model choices among ambiguous and lottery type situations, and how they respond to the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes. This paper also attempts to communicate the historical development of utility models and provide a fresh perspective on the development of utility models.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Cause To Treatment, Tavleen Aulakh

Occam's Razor

Imagine two individuals, both suffering from severe liver damage. With excess fat molecules concentrated in the hepatic cells, their livers are inflamed and scarred. These deteriorating livers are also supplementing the development of chronic obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and hyperlipidemia. While one of these individuals is a middle-aged male with a long history of alcohol addiction and abuse, the other is only thirteen years old and has never consumed alcohol. This adolescent is suffering from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Michael Stanley Smith

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this paper, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations ...

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in the monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase the complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

The Effects Of Quantitative Easing In The United States: Implications For Future Central Bank Policy Makers, Matthew Q. Rubino

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent bond buying programs, specifically Quantitative Easing 1, Quantitative Easing 2, Operation Twist (or the Fed’s Maturity Extension Program), and Quantitative Easing 3. In this study, I provide a picture of the economic landscape leading up to the deployment of the programs, an overview of quantitative easing including each program’s respective objectives, and how and why the Fed decided to implement the programs. Using empirical analysis, I measure each program’s effectiveness by applying four models including a yield curve model, an inflation ...

An Experimental Analysis Of Adaptive Learning In A Multi-Subject Economy, David Martin

Business and Economics Honors Papers

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) has long served as a foundation in macroeconomic laws of motion. However, the assumptions of REH are likely too powerful to be representative of economic actors. This research evaluates adaptive learning, a developing alternative to rational expectations, using a multi-agent macroeconomic prediction “game.” Data was gathered from a group of students, each predicting the outcome of a single economy over time. Each agent was asked to forecast output (GDP) and inflation in each period based on historic levels of output, inflation, and interest rates. These data were then analyzed under various theoretical models of adaptive ...

"What Is Love?" The Sounds Of Love From William S. Burroughs, Kathryn Cronin

Occam's Razor

William Burroughs, his life and works, have a set beginning and end, but the biological and spiritual connections he draws between language, sound, and the human body appear to have undefined points of origin. Sound has always been. Language has always been. To exist outside of language and sound is to exist outside of time and space and thus outside the body. Burroughs’ theories on language, the word, and their connection to the body are woven through texts filled with structural and narrative convolutions. ­ Nova Trilogy, especially The Ticket thatExploded, as well as the early novel Naked Lunch, establish ...

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence ...

Experimental Evidence For Heterogeneous Expectations In A Simple New Keynesian Framework, Atticus David Holm Graven

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper is a two-dimensional analysis of agent behavior in a standard New Keynesian (NK) Macroeconomic model. On the dimension of pure mathematics, we analyze the parameters of the NK model and of possible prediction rules. On the other dimension we continue a practice of empirical study of heterogeneous expectations with an experiment. The experiment will ask participants to make predictions of future output and inflation. Their responses will create a data-set upon which analysis will be performed to illuminate and corroborate current theories of economic decision making. The literature has shown that most agents' forecasting rules can be modeled ...

Community, Culture And Identity In An Age Of Globalization, Katie Wiggins

Occam's Razor

As we move further into the age of globalization, we are seeing changes not only at a global level but at individual and communal levels; changes that we cannot wholly identify but that we recognize in ourselves. We are adapting to a global world, one that is affecting our identity and culture and, as we attempt to hold on to this identity and still converse with a larger world, we ultimately are forced to reshape our identities. Some may wonder what this will mean for the future and to what extent it affects us as individuals and communities. To answer ...

Health Care Management Papers

This article examines the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic performance and measures of poverty in the United States. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents insights on the relationship between poverty and macroeconomic performance that emerge from the literature. The emphasis is on empirical studies from 1986 to 2011. Section 3 provides a snapshot of the change in poverty over National Bureau of Economic Research-dated recessions for a variety of poverty measures. Section 4 uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to characterize the response of poverty to innovations in various social indicators and measures of macroeconomic performance. Section 5 expands the ...

Senior Projects Spring 2012

The paper focuses on Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis incorporated in a growth model and investigates whether an inherently unstable economy can be stabilized by a big and proactive government. Using dynamical systems theory and expanding a supply-driven growth model developed by Lin, Day and Tse (1992), the paper explores how different government spending programs and financing paths can affect the growth, as well as the stability of a capitalist economy. The results and implications of the new frameworks are analyzed, using analytical and numerical methods of bifurcation, to examine the dependence of optimal government intervention on the economic environment ...

Cari Bourette

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock ...