Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Obama's triumph should be making Labour nervous

As Britain woke up this morning and switched on its televisions, it must have been perplexed. The too-close-to-call election that was going to the subject of endless recounts and legal challenges was actually won decisively by Barack Obama. Who knew?

Two people who did know were David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Cameron and his advisers made the calculation months ago that Obama was heading back to the White House, and wasted no time letting it be known it was an outcome that they welcomed. Ed Miliband, who over the last week has seen half of his party’s activists abandoning the doorsteps of Corby for the doorsteps of Cuyahoga County, has close links with the Obama camp, and was also banking on a Presidential victory.

Although both men may have been expecting this result, the implications for Cameron and Miliband are very different. On the surface Miliband will be happy. He is closer in ideological terms to his Democrat counterpart. His advisers have been building a good relationship with Obama’s election winning team – a team that will now be eyeing fresh political pastures. More crucially, he will also be heartened that Obama’s interventionist economic strategy has been endorsed at the ballot box.

But the President’s triumph will – or should – be generating a bit of nervousness in Labour ranks. Firstly, Miliband and his aides will have noted the power of incumbency. It’s unlikely that a hurricane will strike the east coast of Britain a week before polling day 2015, and even if it did, on recent evidence we could expect to see George Osborne refusing to provide any funding for the relief effort, Andrew Mitchell abusing the rescue workers and Francis Maude telling us to buck up and stock up on the jerry cans. But there have been a number of occasions – Hillsborough, Bloody Sunday, Libya – where David Cameron has shown his Prime Ministerial mettle. The office of Prime Minister does not carry quite the same cachet as of the office of President. But if Cameron can learn to harness it better over the next two-and-a-half years, and demonstrate he is the leader of the nation rather than just the Conservative party, it could provide him with a political windfall.

Labour will have also noticed the Republican’s failure to exploit Barack Obama’s economic woes. And if they haven’t, Tory advisers have certainly noticed Barack Obama’s success in pinning America’s economic hardship on the previous administration, and prevailing electorally thanks to a slow but steady economic recovery.

“I won't pretend the path I'm offering is quick or easy. I never have,” Barack Obama said in his convention speech. “You didn't elect me to tell you what you wanted to hear. You elected me to tell you the truth. And the truth is, it will take more than a few years for us to solve challenges that have built up over decades”. Those exact words are going to be repeated ad nauseam by David Cameron and George Osborne between now and polling day.

This election has also highlighted a big strategic problem for Miliband and his team. They are convinced the next election will be a “change election”, in the same way Mitt Romney and his aides believed 2012 would be a change election in America. Indeed, one of Romney’s great successes was the way he stole the "change" mantle from Barack Obama.

But 2012 wasn’t a change election, it was a security election. People wanted to feel safe. And Mitt Romney, with his image as a cold, aloof, venture capitalist, his callous disregard for the 47 per cent and his perceived hard line on social issues such as women’s and gay rights, scared people. Romney was the guy who wanted to close dad’s factory, drive mom back into the kitchen and kill off junior’s favourite TV character Big Bird. Barack Obama was the guy who put his arm around Donna Vanzant on the Jersey shoreline and told her everything would be all right. And when it came to the crunch, she, and America, believed him.

Obviously the parallels aren’t all one way. The exit polls showed Mitt Romney was – implausibly – seen as more credible than Obama on the economy. But Obama was viewed by wide margins as being the candidate more in touch with the needs of ordinary people. That should give Ed Miliband cause for optimism, and David Cameron cause for concern.

One of the keys to Obama’s victory was also his ability to maintain his rainbow coalition of young, ethnic minority and female voters. Ed Miliband is attempting to build an identical winning base.

But ultimately all roads lead back to the economy, the issue 60 per cent of the electorate said was at the top of their minds when they cast their vote. No previous President had been re-elected with the economy in the shape it was as America went to the polls yesterday. And just as Labour are doing now, Mitt Romney and the Republican’s were convinced that single fact guaranteed them the White House.