The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.4% in October 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.4% in September 2006 and 0.5% in August 2006.

In October 2006, all states and territories had an increase in the trend estimate. The largest increases occurred in Western Australia (+0.9%) and the Australian Capital Territory (+0.7%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.8% in October 2006. This follows a revised increase of 0.3% in September 2006 and an increase of 0.2% in August 2006.

All states and territories except Tasmania (-0.4%) had increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The largest increase occurred in Western Australia (+1.5%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 4.7% in October 2006 compared with September 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 4.3%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 5.2%.

Australian turnover increased by 6.6% in October 2006 compared with October 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 6.7%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 6.5%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE

Release Date

November 2006

9 January 2007

December 2006

5 February 2007

January 2007

2 March 2007

February 2007

2 April 2007

March 2007

8 May 2007

April 2007

30 May 2007

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for October 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

18 581.9

136.9

Change from preceding month ($m)

834.3

83.4

% change from preceding month (%)

4.7

0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been 11 months of moderate trend growth. Food retailing (11 months), Household good retailing (three months), Recreational good retailing (two months) and Clothing and soft good retailing (one month) have had moderate trend growth. Department stores has been in decline for four months. Hospitality and services and Other retailing have had at least three months of weak trend growth.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth since December 2005. Victoria has had moderate growth for six months, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had two months of moderate growth, and Queensland had moderate growth in October. South Australia (five months) and the Northern Territory (nine months) have had strong trend growth. New South Wales has had mostly weak growth in the last six months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

The trend for Department stores has been in decline for the last four months. All states except Western Australia were in decline in October. South Australia has been in decline for six months, New South Wales for five months, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory for four months, and Queensland for three months.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth was moderate in October 2006 after strong growth for the previous three months. South Australia had moderate trend growth in October after eight months of strong growth. New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania (five months) and Western Australia (13 months) have had strong trend growth. Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory were in decline in October.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth in the last three months. Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had moderate growth in the last one or two months following at least five months of strong growth. Queensland (six months), South Australia (eight months), and the Australian Capital Territory (15 months) have all had strong trend growth.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth has been moderate for two months. New South Wales had moderate growth in October 2006 after four months of strong growth. Queensland (four months), Western Australia (three months) and Tasmania (five months) have had strong growth, while Victoria has been in decline for at least 15 months.

OTHER RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for three months. New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory were flat in October 2006, while Victoria (four months) and Queensland (three months) have been in decline. Western Australia has had 11 months of strong trend growth.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth for at least seven months. Over this seven month period, the trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been mostly the same as Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been weak trend growth for six months. New South Wales (seven months), Queensland (two months) and Tasmania (one month) have had moderate trend growth. Western Australia had moderate growth in October 2006 after nine months of strong trend growth. The Australian Capital Territory has had ten months of strong trend growth, while Victoria and South Australia have been in decline for at least five months.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth in the last three months after nine months of moderate growth. Food retailing had weak growth in September and October 2006 while Hospitality and services has had moderate trend growth for seven months. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong trend growth for five months while Department stores and Household good retailing have been in decline for five and four months respectively.

VICTORIA

There has been weak trend growth for five months. Food retailing (six months) and Household good retailing (two months) have had moderate growth while Clothing and soft good retailing has had five months of strong trend growth. The other industries have been in decline for at least four months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 14 months. Food retailing had moderate growth in October 2006 following seven months of strong trend growth. Hospitality and services also had moderate growth in October. Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for six and four months respectively. The other industries have been in decline for three months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend growth has been moderate for eight months. Clothing and soft good retailing had moderate trend growth in October 2006 following eight months of strong growth. Food retailing (five months) and Household good retailing (eight months) have had strong trend growth. Department stores, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for six months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend growth has been strong for ten months. Clothing and soft good retailing (13 months), Other retailing (11 months) and Recreational good retailing (three months) have had strong trend growth. Both Household good retailing and Hospitality and services had moderate trend growth in October 2006 after at least nine months of strong trend growth. Department stores has had weak trend growth for three months.

TASMANIA

There has been weak trend growth for nine months. Food retailing had weak trend growth in October 2006 after four months of being in decline. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for five months while Household good retailing has been in decline for three months.