See what the future holds for technology, media and telecommunications

Download the 2018 Global Predictions

The technology, media and entertainment, and telecommunications ecosystem remains as fascinating as ever in 2018. Will augmented reality become mainstream? How will machine learning affect the enterprise? What's the future of the smartphone? Deloitte Global invites you to read the latest Predictions report, designed to provide insight into transformation and growth opportunities over the next one to five years.

Summaries: Global 2018 TMT Predictions

Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Adblocking across media

Deloitte Global predicts that ten percent of North Americans over 18 will be engaged in four or more
multiple simultaneous ad blocking behaviors in 2018: we call these people "adlergic." People
are adblocking on computers and mobile devices, but are also blocking or avoiding ads using smart
TVs, digital video recorders, streaming video on demand and streaming music services. And there
are also low-tech ad blocking methods like changing the channel on TV or stations on the radio.

Read more...

Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Adblocking across media

Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality

Deloitte Global predicts that over a billion smartphone users will create augmented reality (AR)
content at least once in 2018, with three hundred million being regular users (creating content
monthly) and tens of millions making and sharing content weekly. While AR is not new to 2018,
what differs is quality, especially with regard to photo-realism. There is greater precision
when identifying surfaces, and superior algorithms enable shadows for scenes lit by the sun or
artificial light. The result is more realistic illusion.

Read more...

Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality

Digital media: the subscription prescription

Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2018, 50 percent of adults in developed countries will have
at least two online-only media subscriptions, and by end-2020, the average will have doubled
to four. Online-only subscriptions have become more viable and easy to use, thanks to devices
that facilitate access to online media subscription services, steadily rising broadband speeds,
and ease of signup. Expansion of smartphone screens means that news articles can now be displayed
very much like a newspaper column.

Read more...

Digital media: the subscription prescription

The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation

Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2023 penetration of smartphones among adults in developed countries
will surpass 90 percent, a five-percentage point increase on 2018. Indeed, over the next five
years the smartphone market should continue to grow in penetration, usage, unit shipments, total
value and ASP. Additionally, it will consolidate its position as the primary access to digital
service and content.

Read more...

The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation

Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think

Deloitte Global predicts that a fifth of North Americans with internet access will get all of their
home data access via cellular mobile networks (mobile-only) in 2018 and that a mixture of cellular
and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies could lead to 30-40 percent of the population relying
on wireless for data at home by 2022. The reasons for this are varied: sometimes mobile is the
only form of data connection available, especially outside cities. Sometimes factors such as
income, age, living alone, or using better and faster networks with bigger monthly data allowances
seem to play a role.

Read more...

Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think

Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 one billion passenger journeys (about a quarter of all passengers),
will be on planes equipped with in-flight connectivity (IFC), enabling data and, where permissible,
voice communications. This is a 20 percent increase on 2017. It should be more popular and lucrative
than ever in 2018, thanks to the rising number of routes covered, higher connection speeds and
greater data capacity per flight.

Read more...

Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off

Live thrives in an online world

Deloitte Global predicts that live broadcast and events will generate $545 billion in direct revenues
in 2018, a one percent increase on the previous year. The vast majority of live revenues are
forecast to come from traditional sectors, with the remainder from live streaming, and eSports.
Live TV and radio broadcasting is expected to generate 72 percent of all revenues in 2018, with
the largest component being broadcast TV, with $358 billion from advertising and subscriptions.
Almost all live revenues are being generated by traditional formats, but new genres, primarily
live streaming and eSports, are enjoying surging revenue, with China likely to remain the largest
market for live streaming in 2018.

Read more...

Live thrives in an online world

Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips

Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2018 over 25 percent of all chips used to accelerate
machine learning (ML) in the data center will be FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays) and ASICs
(application-specific integrated circuits). These new kinds of chips should dramatically increase
the use of machine learning, enabling applications to consume less power and at the same time
become more responsive, flexible, and capable.

Read more...

Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips

Machine learning: things are getting intense

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 large and medium enterprises will intensify their use of machine
learning (ML). The number of implementations and pilot projects using the technology will double
compared to 2017, and will double again by 2020. Further, with enabling technologies such as
ML APIs and specialized hardware available in the cloud, these advances will now be available
to small as well as large companies.

Read more...

Machine learning: things are getting intense

Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018, 45 percent of global adult smartphone users will worry they
are using their phones too much for certain activities, and 65 percent of 18-24 year olds will
feel the same, contrary to expectations that younger users are oblivious to their phone habits.
Both young and old are actually quite happy with using their phones a lot—even hundreds
of times per day. They are focusing instead on controlling usage when it is distracting them
from activities they would prefer to concentrate on.

Read more...

Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting

The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds

Deloitte Global predicts that traditional TV viewing by 18-24 year olds will decline by 5-15 percent
per year in the US, Canada and the UK for both 2018 and 2019. But while annual declines are predicted
to be in this wide range, it is also possible that declines will be at the lower end of the zone
as the impact of the forces that distracted young people from traditional TV start to weaken.

Read more...

The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds

Is there an #adlergic epidemic? Adblocking across media

Deloitte Global predicts that ten percent of North Americans over 18 will be engaged in four
or more multiple simultaneous ad blocking behaviors in 2018: we call these people "adlergic."
People are adblocking on computers and mobile devices, but are also blocking or avoiding
ads using smart TVs, digital video recorders, streaming video on demand and streaming music
services. And there are also low-tech ad blocking methods like changing the channel on TV
or stations on the radio.

However, it appears that almost nobody blocks all ads. The ad categories that cannot be
easily blocked are likely to be the fastest growing ad categories for the next few years.
For advertisers eager to get around adblockers, the most obvious and biggest places to focus
should be mobile and social. Being #adlergic is a big deal: the most adblocking is being
done by those who are younger, with higher incomes and more education ... all of whose attention
is coveted by advertisers.

Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality

Deloitte Global predicts that over a billion smartphone users will create augmented reality (AR)
content at least once in 2018, with three hundred million being regular users (creating content
monthly) and tens of millions making and sharing content weekly. While AR is not new to 2018,
what differs is quality, especially with regard to photo-realism. There is greater precision
when identifying surfaces, and superior algorithms enable shadows for scenes lit by the sun
or artificial light. The result is more realistic illusion.

Looking ahead, AR should enable users to appear as if they are singing along with their
favorite singer, interacting with a tiger, juggling balls with a star footballer, or being
in the same space as any other person, animal or object that they may want to incorporate.
Indeed, we will struggle to recall a time when AR was a mere novelty.

Digital media: the subscription prescription

Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2018, 50 percent of adults in developed countries will have
at least two online-only media subscriptions, and by end-2020, the average will have doubled
to four. Online-only subscriptions have become more viable and easy to use, thanks to devices
that facilitate access to online media subscription services, steadily rising broadband speeds,
and ease of signup. Expansion of smartphone screens means that news articles can now be displayed
very much like a newspaper column.

But as reach has grown, revenue per viewer, browser, impression, or click has steadily fallen.
Generating sufficient revenue from online advertising alone has, for some publishers, felt
like a Sisyphean task. In response, content creators have increasingly started to focus on
growing their online digital subscription revenues, and on formulating ever more varied and
appealing digital subscription packages.

The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation

Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2023 penetration of smartphones among adults in developed
countries will surpass 90 percent, a five-percentage point increase on 2018. Indeed, over
the next five years the smartphone market should continue to grow in penetration, usage,
unit shipments, total value and ASP. Additionally, it will consolidate its position as the
primary access to digital service and content.

The smartphone's success over the next five years will be underpinned by an array of innovations
that are largely invisible to its users, but whose combined impact should feel tangible,
in the form of greater ease of use, or improved functionality (for example for maps and photos).
These invisible innovations should enable the smartphone to continue "absorbing" the functionality
of an ever-broader array of physical objects, and to further displace the PC as the preferred
device for a growing range of digital applications.

Mobile-only: wireless home internet is bigger than you think

Deloitte Global predicts that a fifth of North Americans with internet access will get all of
their home data access via cellular mobile networks (mobile-only) in 2018 and that a mixture
of cellular and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies could lead to 30-40 percent of the
population relying on wireless for data at home by 2022. The reasons for this are varied:
sometimes mobile is the only form of data connection available, especially outside cities.
Sometimes factors such as income, age, living alone, or using better and faster networks
with bigger monthly data allowances seem to play a role.

Prevalent mobile-only access has significant short-term implications for firms doing business
with consumers over the internet—which in 2018 is likely to be almost every consumer
firm. For these situations, ecommerce retailers or online financial services firms will want
to consider having low bandwidth versions that can reach the mobile-only audience.

Fasten your seatbelts: in-flight connectivity takes off

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 one billion passenger journeys (about a quarter of all
passengers), will be on planes equipped with in-flight connectivity (IFC), enabling data
and, where permissible, voice communications. This is a 20 percent increase on 2017. It should
be more popular and lucrative than ever in 2018, thanks to the rising number of routes covered,
higher connection speeds and greater data capacity per flight.

The business case for IFC should become more compelling due to technological advances in
satellite and ATG (air to ground) connectivity. IFC is likely to enjoy better speeds and
greater capacity, enabling both improved experience and lower prices. This trend will require
airlines to make significant choices when deploying IFC: should they use satellite, ATG or
both? Which parts of the IFC service do they want to manage themselves? What role does IFC
play in their entertainment program?

Live thrives in an online world

Deloitte Global predicts that live broadcast and events will generate $545 billion in direct
revenues in 2018, a one percent increase on the previous year. The vast majority of live
revenues are forecast to come from traditional sectors, with the remainder from live streaming,
and eSports. Live TV and radio broadcasting is expected to generate 72 percent of all revenues
in 2018, with the largest component being broadcast TV, with $358 billion from advertising
and subscriptions. Almost all live revenues are being generated by traditional formats, but
new genres, primarily live streaming and eSports, are enjoying surging revenue, with China
likely to remain the largest market for live streaming in 2018.

Thanks to sheer convenience, the fear of missing out, the need for shared experiences, and
exclusivity, live content—across broadcast and events—remains compelling and
lucrative in 2018.

Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips

Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2018 over 25 percent of all chips used to accelerate
machine learning (ML) in the data center will be FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays) and
ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits). These new kinds of chips should dramatically
increase the use of machine learning, enabling applications to consume less power and at
the same time become more responsive, flexible, and capable.

GPUs (graphics processing units) were the most common kind of ML chip in the past, and they
will still be the largest part of the ML chip market in 2018, and will still be growing.
But they now have company, and when it comes to machine learning, big changes to the machine
(in this case, the chips) are likely to cause big changes in the industry.

Machine learning: things are getting intense

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018 large and medium enterprises will intensify their use of
machine learning (ML). The number of implementations and pilot projects using the technology
will double compared to 2017, and will double again by 2020. Further, with enabling technologies
such as ML APIs and specialized hardware available in the cloud, these advances will now
be available to small as well as large companies.

Progress in five key areas should make it easier and faster to develop ML solutions. Three
of these five advancements—automation, data reduction, and training acceleration—make
ML easier, cheaper, or faster (or a combination of all three). The other two—model
interpretability and local machine learning—enable applications in new areas, which
should also expand the market.

Smartphones are useful, but they can be distracting

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018, 45 percent of global adult smartphone users will worry
they are using their phones too much for certain activities, and 65 percent of 18-24 year
olds will feel the same, contrary to expectations that younger users are oblivious to their
phone habits. Both young and old are actually quite happy with using their phones a lot—even
hundreds of times per day. They are focusing instead on controlling usage when it is distracting
them from activities they would prefer to concentrate on.

But other smartphone behaviors, such as distracted driving and interrupted sleep, are harming
user relationships with others, and possibly even endangering their health or other people's
health. Phone manufacturers, software and app developers, and network operators would do
well to assist consumers in achieving less distracted sleeping, driving, walking and family
and friends time. Some of these initiatives will improve quality of life. Some will likely
save lives.

The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds

Deloitte Global predicts that traditional TV viewing by 18-24 year olds will decline by 5-15
percent per year in the US, Canada and the UK for both 2018 and 2019. But while annual declines
are predicted to be in this wide range, it is also possible that declines will be at the
lower end of the zone as the impact of the forces that distracted young people from traditional
TV start to weaken.

Smartphones, computers, social media, YouTube, and streaming video are all nearing saturation
in the three large English-speaking markets. The bottom line is that traditional TV business—broadcasters,
distributors and advertisers—should assume that while 18-24 year old viewing minutes
will experience ongoing annual declines, double digits will be the exception, not the rule.

How accurate were the 2017 Predictions?

TMT Predictions 2018 Authors

Partner | Monitor Deloitte

Emmanuel is a partner and the Technology, Media & Telecommunications leader for Monitor Deloitte in the Middle East. Emmanuel has eighteen years of industry and management consulting experience in Eur... More

Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. Please see About Deloitte to learn more about our global network of member firms.