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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

The beginning of the end with the Cardinals

To commemorate the final stretch of games with the St. Louis Cardinals, we asked long-time friend of Astros County C70 At the Bat some questions (The Constable answered C70's questions over here):

AC: As you likely know, the Astros took three of four from the Phillies (!)
over the weekend. Let's let that sink in for a second... Okay, does
that change your outlook on this series?

C70: I don't know that it does, but my
outlook on this series might not be what you expect it to be.
Obviously, I'm more comfortable with the Cards spending the next 10
days playing the Astros and the Cubs than the Dodgers or Reds, but this
has been such an inconsistent team that it's hard to get too high on a
series that, on paper, should be a huge mismatch. Because if this
season had been played out on paper, the Cards would have won a whole
lot more games.

Having Houston playing well does temper some
expectations, of course. I'd rather be facing the team that lost 34 of
38 than the team that has more September wins that St. Louis does.

AC: What
the heck is it with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's obsession with Jeff
Luhnow (and what seems like a party line of "He wasn't that great")?

C70: You
have to know that Jeff Luhnow was a very polarizing figure. When he
was brought on board, he brought the sabermetric mentality with him, as
you are seeing in Houston now. The problem was, not everyone in the
front office was ready for that. There was a pretty obvious rift that
developed between the "new school" set and the "old school" set. This
culminated back in 2007 when Walt Jocketty was let go and John Mozeliak
was hired to be the general manager. Mozeliak's mission was to
reconcile the stats and the scouting side of things (and, from all
appearances, has done a good job).

Anytime that you are such a visible part in a change
to a civic institution, you are going to get a lot of focus on you. I
expect that there will be some monitoring of Luhnow for a while, just
like there has been of Pujols this season. It'll lessen as time goes
on, but it'll never quite go away. When you "discover" someone that has
success elsewhere, it's natural to keep an eye out.

Now, as for the latter part of your question, I
don't know much about that unless it plays back into that rift he was
part of. Most internet observers seem to be fairly fond of him. Could
be some "cushioning the blow," could be some acknowledgement that no man
is an island--but I know Luhnow took a few important palm trees (or
rocks or whatever works to extend the analogy) with him to Houston also.

AC: Piggy-backing on that, how do you feel about Luhnow?

C70: I
think he turned things around in regards to the minor leagues and
helped bring a new mindset to the drafting process. His support may
have unintentionally poisoned the well for Colby Rasmus (who was often
termed "Luhnow's boy" within the organization, if reports are right) but
there's no denying that the Cards have more high-talent prospects in
their system than ever before. I think he'll do a fine job in Houston
and wish him well.

AC: Y'all
have almost $90m in payroll already committed to 2013. What does the
future of the Cardinals look like for the next five years?

C70: The future is, at least to these
biased eyes, very bright. There is a lot of payroll committed, but it's
not to dead weight (or at least, not much). You have Chris Carpenter,
who hopefully will be at least close to his ace-like self after a year
off next year, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Carlos Beltran (that
one may hurt, but it's just one more year) make up the bulk of the big
money going forward and all should be good for 2013 (again, save
possibly Beltran). The expectation is Wainwright will sign an extension
this season and be here for the long haul.

After 2013, the holes that get created are likely to
be filled from within. Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos
Martinez, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn--all of these could be in the rotation
by 2014. Second base has a Kolten Wong-sized hole waiting to be filled.
Oscar Tavares is going to be ranked in the top 10 of most every
prospect list this offseason and should see St. Louis by next September.
There is going to be a lot of cheap young talent coming through to
help offset the expensive contracts elsewhere. Right now, the window
for championship runs seems as wide open as it's ever been.

AC: Can the Cardinals (a) make the playoffs and then (b) beat the Braves in a one-game playoff?

C70: This
Cardinal team can win the World Series. This Cardinal team can also
completely miss the playoffs. As frustrating as they've been, they've
got the pieces to beat just about anyone when they come together. The
problem is, especially with the one-game playoff, they don't always show
up. I could easily see the Cards losing a 1-0, 2-1 game to Atlanta
after leaving 10 men on and having at least two ill-conceived bunts. If
Carpenter gives them some focus and everything finally comes together,
though, 12 in '12 is not out of the question.

AC: Speaking of, since StL is in the mix, how do you feel about the 1-game playoff?

C70: If you are going to do a second wild-card, this may be the best way to
do it. I'm not a fan of the second wild card--I am not really a fan of
the regular wild card either--but hindering them somewhat going into a
playoff series should help the "best team" win more than just the hot
pitcher. I think it'd be better just to make four divisions and let the
winners get into October. Plenty of pennant races and you'd actually
have to win something.

AC: What was your favorite Astros/Cards game?

C70: So
many good ones to choose from, but I think it has to be Game 7 of the
2004 NLCS. The catch by Edmonds, the home run by Rolen, beating Roger
Clemens....those are things that are hard to top.

AC: As a team lucky enough to stay in the National League, what are your
thoughts on what happened to the Astros, in regards to the move to the
AL?

C70: I think it was an incredibly
stupid thing to have even considered, much less gone through with. The
idea of interleague play, which was never one of my favorite ideas,
going on every single day is a terrible one in my book. Plus the whole
idea of a deal being held up so that a perfectly legitimate owner could
be blackmailed into moving a team with 50 years of history? Move the
Brewers back if you have to move someone--they've played both sides of
the fence. It was a shameful episode in a history of baseball rife with
shameful episodes.

2 comments:

Blazemule
said...

Freaking YES!!! Nailed it!

"AC: As a team lucky enough to stay in the National League, what are your thoughts on what happened to the Astros, in regards to the move to the AL?

C70: I think it was an incredibly stupid thing to have even considered, much less gone through with. The idea of interleague play, which was never one of my favorite ideas, going on every single day is a terrible one in my book. Plus the whole idea of a deal being held up so that a perfectly legitimate owner could be blackmailed into moving a team with 50 years of history? Move the Brewers back if you have to move someone--they've played both sides of the fence. It was a shameful episode in a history of baseball rife with shameful episodes. "

Thank you C70 for taking the time to do the Q&A but especially for your answer to that last question.

Most fans from other teams seem to really enjoy twisting the knife on this topic by marginalizing the damage/insult to the Astros or even outright supporting the horrible lie that the Astros were the best team to move. It does my heart good to know that there are reasonable people out there who see that disgraceful episode for what it was. And it does my heart even more good to know that some fans of our real rival clubs in the national league offer that bit of respect & might even be sad to see us go.

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