iPhone 5 Launch In China Could Boost Apple’s Holiday Quarter Results

In line with Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) plans to make this year’s iPhone launch its fastest roll-out ever, Chinese carriers are hopeful of launching the iPhone 5 in the country before the year-end. China Telecom (NYSE:CHA) Chairman Wang Xiaochu, in a brief interview with the Wall Street Journal Friday, said that the company plans to launch the device by early December or sooner. [1] While China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) sounded less certain about the launch date, it has already received initial regulatory approval to officially launch the iPhone 5 in China. [2] A December launch of the iPhone 5 in China may not be confirmed news yet, but going by the three month time-frame in which Apple had launched the 4S earlier this year, it does seem very likely.

The huge opportunity that China presents can be gauged by the fact that the country has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest smartphone market by volume. This is an incredible statistic considering that China is only in the early stages of smartphone adoption. 3G penetration in China stands at only about 19% currently and is growing strongly. Considering the huge 2G subscriber base that the Chinese carriers are looking to upgrade to 3G, the potential for Apple to ride the boom is huge.

This is also borne out by the rapid rate at which Apple’s revenues from China are growing. Revenues from greater China, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, in the September quarter grew 26% year-over-year and accounted for 15% of Apple’s revenues for the fiscal year. This brought Apple’s FY2012 revenues from the region to about $24 billion, about 80% growth over FY 2011. Demand for the newly launched iPhone 5 has so far been strong and China’s addition this holiday season will help boost what has seasonally been Apple’s strongest quarter further.

As the country grows and the average Chinese sees an increase in buying power, we expect to see a growing shift in demand from 2G to 3G smartphones. The iPhone can help Apple tap this phenomenal growth in demand. Even Apple’s CEO Tim Cook acknowledged the immense potential that China presents when he said during the Q2 earnings call that the country was Apple’s “fastest growing region” by far and that the company was doing everything it could to market its brand in China.

Penetrating China could however mean margin pressures for the company in the longer term, mitigated to an extent by the carrier subsidies. With cheap Android smartphones seeing huge demand and the pricing war gradually dragging prices down to sub-$100 levels, Apple will do well to avoid this segment for as long as it can without sacrificing growth. It therefore bodes well that Apple is only just getting started in China and has ample opportunity to drive sales in the country without having to drop prices anytime soon.

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