point of order: had the house republicans simply passed the debt ceiling raise - as they had dozens of times before - the negotiations that resulted in the sequester would never have been necessary. instead, they felt, as mitch mcconnell said, that it was "a hostage worth taking."

so once again, i posit that this is in fact 100 percent owned by the GOP.

SunsetLament:As a side note, does anyone remember 18 months ago when the original "fiscal cliff" debates started. Wasn't it an argument about something completely different? As I remember it, we were going to go off the fiscal cliff if we didn't raise the debt limit and our national credit rating was subsequently downgraded. "Going over the fiscal cliff" had nothing to do with the Bush tax cuts not being extended. If I didn't know better, I would start to believe the media (and the Democrats) were just declaring we were "about to go over the fiscal cliff" anytime they wanted to do something financially related - and that it doesn't really have anything to do with the country's finances teetering on the edge of cliff. Hmmm .....

Oh, and while we're at it, why is it that no one ever says "Hey media (and Democrats), you said the country's finances would go over a cliff 18 months ago if the credit rating was downgraded ... it was downgraded ... and life went on as though nothing changed. If you were so wrong then, how do we know you're not completely wrong now?"

SunsetLament:As a side note, does anyone remember 18 months ago when the original "fiscal cliff" debates started. Wasn't it an argument about something completely different? As I remember it, we were going to go off the fiscal cliff if we didn't raise the debt limit and our national credit rating was subsequently downgraded. "Going over the fiscal cliff" had nothing to do with the Bush tax cuts not being extended. If I didn't know better, I would start to believe the media (and the Democrats) were just declaring we were "about to go over the fiscal cliff" anytime they wanted to do something financially related - and that it doesn't really have anything to do with the country's finances teetering on the edge of cliff. Hmmm .....

Oh, and while we're at it, why is it that no one ever says "Hey media (and Democrats), you said the country's finances would go over a cliff 18 months ago if the credit rating was downgraded ... it was downgraded ... and life went on as though nothing changed. If you were so wrong then, how do we know you're not completely wrong now?"

18 months ago the republicans caved and we raised the debt limit. And just to correct your chronology the downgrade in our rating happened before the republicans caved and was directly tied to fears that they would not allow the debt limit to be raised.

This situation is related to the bipartisan comission that was intended to come to a deficit deal as a response to the debt limit crisis. Both parties agreed to a series of consequences should that comission not be able to come to an agreement. They weren't able to (republicans regected everything that hinted at a tax increase) and so now we are dealing with those consequences.

...because plenty of Democrats are willing to work out balanced cuts in social programs and military spending that far exceed the increased revenue from the Bush tax cuts to those making over $250K/yr?

...because the GOP's modus operandi all along has been, when offered pre-emptive cuts, to reset the debate with those offers as the new baseline?

...because only a fool would contend that THE logjam here isn't Republicans refusing to raise taxes on the rich?

They wanted a presidential race on the economy and the debt and which vision of how to resolve our government's fiscal problems would prevail, and they got it. The people spoke. They chose Obama. And that should be his message, again and again, like a hammer to an anvil. We laid out our plan, you laid out yours, and the people chose ours. You either respect that or you don't.

SunsetLament:Oh, and while we're at it, why is it that no one ever says "Hey media (and Democrats), you said the country's finances would go over a cliff 18 months ago if the credit rating was downgraded ... it was downgraded ... and life went on as though nothing changed. If you were so wrong then, how do we know you're not completely wrong now?"

Everyone gets confused about that stuff, including the media and Democrats. The constant flow of bullshiat doesn't help either.

If you were listening to knowledgeable folks back then they'd have been telling you that the danger wasn't credit rating, but actual default. (Which we were annoyingly close to).

It's a danger not to our government finances directly as such, but because the global financial system is built upon the assumption that US T-Bills are safe. Yank that rug out from under it and watch the depression unfold. It'd be a bigger version of what happened in 2008, where only a part of the financial system got built upon the assumption that real estate was a safe investment, and that rug got yanked out.

CPT Ethanolic:As anyone who's studied the federal budget knows, the problem isn't too little taxes. Even if we kept all the Bush tax cuts in place, federal revenues as a share of GDP will soon exceed historic averages.

Uhmm... HUH?? Do these historical averages include the time before income taxes or something?

If you average it out from today back to the time that the continents split apart (going back any farther would just be silly because we weren't a separate country then), the average rate starts to approach 0. Therefore, we are being greatly over taxed. It's simple math, really.

This message brought to you by: the "liberal" media that needs something besides Christmas to talk about until the end of the year. Because we've managed to let Christmas take over so much of the year that there's a month to go and nothing to be said on the subject.

Fart_Machine:SunsetLament: As I remember it, we were going to go off the fiscal cliff if we didn't raise the debt limit and our national credit rating was subsequently downgraded.

What do you think would have happened if we didn't raise the debt ceiling?

We would have stopped borrowing money. Spending would have decreased. As "discretionary" government programs started to wash out (no money available), real discussions about how to renovate entitlement programs would have taken place and corrective action would have occurred (maybe not immediately, but over the course of a year or two). As we all know (because the credit agencies said at the time), the credit rating would have been downgraded either way because it had nothing to do with whether or not the debt ceiling was actually raised and had everything to do with the financial community believing that federal congressional gridlock (as desired by the US population - see two weeks ago) will never result in entitlement reform.

Taylor Mental:Gaseous Anomaly: The fiscal cliff isn't a cliff nor is it irreversible. There's no point to anyone trying to reach a deal before it kicks in.

Just let Jan 1 come and go, tax rates kick up and spending kicks down automatically.

If you really believe the deficit is a problem, you're done, the deficit's pretty much fixed. Otherwise:

THEN work out a deal to cut taxes and increase spending from that baseline.

Since you can get to a place with less deficit than today, without any politician having to support any tax increase or spending cut, politically everything's a lot easier.

Bonus: Republicans then have an incentive to actually make a deal; if they just blindly obstruct so nothing happens, taxes are higher than they like, and defense spending is lower than they like.

Agreed. The only problem I can see is a lot of folks won't be getting their tax refunds until the mess is sorted out. Plus, the IRS is going to be wasting a whole lot of manpower and printing costs.

No, that's not even a problem, the IRS is dealing with tax year 2012.

Even if somehow the higher tax rates lasted through all of 2013, nobody files returns on that until Feb 2014 (I guess quarterly-estimated-tax filers might need to get paperwork in starting April 2013).

Paychecks will get affected right away because withholding rates will change right away (and the payroll tax cut expires). That plus the spending cuts will be an immediate drag on the economy, but that's what we get if we think it's a lesser evil than the deficit. (It's not, but that's another discussion).

SunsetLament:As we all know (because the credit agencies said at the time), the credit rating would have been downgraded either way because it had nothing to do with whether or not the debt ceiling was actually raised and had everything to do with the financial community believing that federal congressional gridlock (as desired by the US population - see two weeks ago) will never result in entitlement reform.

Gaseous Anomaly: No, that's not even a problem, the IRS is dealing with tax year 2012.

Even if somehow the higher tax rates lasted through all of 2013, nobody files returns on that until Feb 2014 (I guess quarterly-estimated-tax filers might need to get paperwork in starting April 2013).

Paychecks will get affected right away because withholding rates will change right away (and the payroll tax cut expires). That plus the spending cuts will be an immediate drag on the economy, but that's what we get if we think it's a lesser evil than the deficit. (It's not, but that's another discussion).

Ah yes, thanks for pointing out the obvious. Don't know where I got that shiat from. Been listening to too much derp apparently.

And when we cut spending that benefit poor and working poor by $1.5 trillion (as we already have) it's merely "kicking a can down the road".

Semantics and word games are fun. Especially when it's used to imply that one outcome must be avoided at all cost, and one outcome not only needs to be revisited in the future but revisited in a Draconian manner.

"Republicans are being hounded mercilessly to abandon their no-tax pledge to get a deal on the fiscal cliff."

And immediately closed the tab before the derp overwhelmed me. Reporters asking them why they aren't willing to compromise at all when a) the democrats are and b) they just got their ass whipped in an election is "hounding mercilessly", now?

Oh, and while we're at it, why is it that no one ever says "Hey media (and Democrats), you said the country's finances would go over a cliff 18 months ago if the credit rating was downgraded ... it was downgraded ... and life went on as though nothing changed. If you were so wrong then, how do we know you're not completely wrong now?"

No, the nightmare scenario then was tht the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised - draconian cuts (a whole lot more than 8%), probable default on our debt. You default on t-bills, you suddenly turn the safest investment on the planet to a junk bond. Big. Farking. Deal.

The teatards and the Paulistinians, who view economics with all of the insight of a four year old, were cheering.

Taylor Mental:Gaseous Anomaly: The fiscal cliff isn't a cliff nor is it irreversible. There's no point to anyone trying to reach a deal before it kicks in.

Just let Jan 1 come and go, tax rates kick up and spending kicks down automatically.

If you really believe the deficit is a problem, you're done, the deficit's pretty much fixed. Otherwise:

THEN work out a deal to cut taxes and increase spending from that baseline.

Since you can get to a place with less deficit than today, without any politician having to support any tax increase or spending cut, politically everything's a lot easier.

Bonus: Republicans then have an incentive to actually make a deal; if they just blindly obstruct so nothing happens, taxes are higher than they like, and defense spending is lower than they like.

Agreed. The only problem I can see is a lot of folks won't be getting their tax refunds until the mess is sorted out. Plus, the IRS is going to be wasting a whole lot of manpower and printing costs.

Well, this and the idea that with 10% across the board spending cuts combines with big defense cuts, lots of jobs will be lost immediately as businesses react to loss of projects. Even if those projects are later re-instated and the people rehired, still sucks being laid off and having so many thrown into uncertainty for their futures.