Coventry and Warwickshire businesses will be warned a ‘hard’ Brexit could be risky, and that a “noticeable slowdown” is to be expected in the UK economy in 2017.

But despite the gloomy outlook Mark Berrisford-Smith, head of economics for HSBC Commercial Banking, will tell the Coventry and Warwickshire Chamber of Commerce’s Annual Economic Conference at the Ricoh Arena that recession will almost certainly be avoided.

Mr Berrisford-Smith is one of the keynote speakers at today’s event alongside Michael Portillo and Kevin Byrne (Checkatrade).

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The event, which is being sponsored by HSBC, Coventry and Warwickshire Local Enterprise Partnership (CWLEP), Simplify IT, WarwickNet, Coventry University and Coventry University Enterprises, will have a Go For Growth theme, and will include contributions from MP Marcus Jones and Jonathan Browning, the chair of the CWLEP.

Mr Berrisford-Smith said: “The British economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the aftermath of the referendum on EU membership.

“Indeed, the surveys of business and consumer sentiment are now back to where they stood before the vote in June, and in some cases are even higher.

“It’s therefore clear that the economy hasn’t plunged off a cliff, nor is it about to.

“In particular, the Bank of England will need to revise its economic forecasts, which had anticipated that the pace of economic growth would more or less stall during the second half of the year.

Michael Portillo

Michael Portillo will also be speaking at the chamber AGM

“Yet this is just the calm before the squalls that will inevitably blow in as the economic and political ramifications of Brexit become apparent.

“A downturn in spending on capital projects by businesses will start to drag on growth in the months ahead, while next year is likely to bring pressure on consumers’ spending power, as the weaker pound feeds through to rising inflation. A recession is highly unlikely, but a noticeable slowdown is nonetheless on the cards for 2017.