This NOT good news. The expected 2015 significant increase in the NFL Cap limit because of expected windfall TV contracts in 2014 may very well NOT occur.link

I don't have a source, but I remember reading after the lockout ended that the cap went significantly down in 2011 compared to previous years. The players agreed to borrow cap money from the future years to get the 2011-2012 cap numbers even remotely close to what they were in years leading up to the lockout. That's why there will be no huge cap increase in the foreseeable future.

Dutch, based on what CnD posted on Schaub's salary numbers....what's your take?

The glaring issue I saw (and an wondering if it stands out to you) is that Schaub's base salary jumps from 7 to 10, from 2013 to 2014 respectively.

Are we basically on a "one more year and we'll see" with Schaub with that jump? How do the two columns of salary numbers interact in terms of cap ramifications?

ArlingtonTexan posted a link to this site the other day: http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.ph...xans&Year=2013
From what I know and looking at their numbers, they are pretty accurate. They suffer from the same issue as Sporttrac though, where they don't account for the vet minimum deal contracts. Their caphit numbers are slightly higher for some of those smaller contracts, but that's not a big deal. They are spot on with the top 20 contracts, so let's have a look at Schaub.

Here's the info on Schaub, which I believe is accurate:

This is how I was trying to present the info in the thread I started, but I was looking guys going into their last year. Schaub has several more years and there is zero chance he will be gone before the end of the 2013 season. If you look at the dead money column, you can see that cutting or trading Schaub now or before the end of the 2013 season would cost the team about 10.5 million in capspace, because he has his 2013 salary guaranteed and 4 years of signing bonus left. That's a huge chunk of change to spend on a guy not playing for you.

However, if you look at 2014, cutting him before the season starts would actually save 4 million in cap space because his dead money is only 10.5 million compared to his 14.5 million cost. And you can see it gets much more reasonable to move him as the contract progresses.

So in short, yes, we have one more year of Schaub, even if we sign the elite Joe Flacco in free agency. It's just not feasible to move him for anything in 2013.

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I don't have a source, but I remember reading after the lockout ended that the cap went significantly down in 2011 compared to previous years. The players agreed to borrow cap money from the future years to get the 2011-2012 cap numbers even remotely close to what they were in years leading up to the lockout. That's why there will be no huge cap increase in the foreseeable future.

ArlingtonTexan posted a link to this site the other day: http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.ph...xans&Year=2013
From what I know and looking at their numbers, they are pretty accurate. They suffer from the same issue as Sporttrac though, where they don't account for the vet minimum deal contracts. Their caphit numbers are slightly higher for some of those smaller contracts, but that's not a big deal. They are spot on with the top 20 contracts, so let's have a look at Schaub.

Here's the info on Schaub, which I believe is accurate:

This is how I was trying to present the info in the thread I started, but I was looking guys going into their last year. Schaub has several more years and there is zero chance he will be gone before the end of the 2013 season. If you look at the dead money column, you can see that cutting or trading Schaub now or before the end of the 2013 season would cost the team about 10.5 million in capspace, because he has his 2013 salary guaranteed and 4 years of signing bonus left. That's a huge chunk of change to spend on a guy not playing for you.

However, if you look at 2014, cutting him before the season starts would actually save 4 million in cap space because his dead money is only 10.5 million compared to his 14.5 million cost. And you can see it gets much more reasonable to move him as the contract progresses.

So in short, yes, we have one more year of Schaub, even if we sign the elite Joe Flacco in free agency. It's just not feasible to move him for anything in 2013.

Thanks for your great input! Rep for your help.

Just to be clear, if Schaub is released after the 2013 season is over, even though we would save paying him the $11 mil in base salary and roster bonus for 2014, the remaining $10.5 mil accelerated dead money for the remaining unpaid guaranteed 2014, 2015, and 2016 payments for the original signing bonus, would be applied as a single "hit" to the 2014 Texans cap?

Just to be clear, if Schaub is released after the 2013 season is over, even though we would save paying him the $11 mil in base salary and roster bonus for 2014, the remaining $10.5 mil accelerated dead money for the remaining unpaid guaranteed 2014, 2015, and 2016 payments for the original signing bonus, would be applied as a single "hit" to the 2014 Texans cap?

Yep, that's correct. If cut in 2014, his caphit would go from 14.5m to 10.5m, and then 0 for 2015 and beyond. It's like the Demeco trade, where the team makes the move to take the dead money hit one year, but have zero liability in future years. It hurts, but it can be necessary at times.

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Yep, that's correct. If cut in 2014, his caphit would go from 14.5m to 10.5m, and then 0 for 2015 and beyond. It's like the Demeco trade, where the team makes the move to take the dead money hit one year, but have zero liability in future years. It hurts, but it can be necessary at times.

What's a little $10.5 mil when you're likely to be already half way drowning.

So, I'm listening to 610, they just said after the money they set aside for the rookies, the Texans have $1.7M

How are we going to sign Glover, Connor, & James with only $1.7M?

March 12th is only 3 weeks away. Shouldn't we be hearing about contract restructures & player cuts by now? We're seeing other teams, the Jets specifically, making moves to free up money. Are we sitting on our thumbs or do you think Rick Smith is putting in overtime?

So, I'm listening to 610, they just said after the money they set aside for the rookies, the Texans have $1.7M

How are we going to sign Glover, Connor, & James with only $1.7M?

March 12th is only 3 weeks away. Shouldn't we be hearing about contract restructures & player cuts by now? We're seeing other teams, the Jets specifically, making moves to free up money. Are we sitting on our thumbs or do you think Rick Smith is putting in overtime?

I would imagine there's negotiations going on behind the scenes - or will be shortly. Other than street free agents (guys who weren't under contract at the end of the 2012 season, or have been released since then), negotiations can't begin with free agents until March 9th, and no signings can take place before March 12th. The 12th is also the date by which teams have to be at or under the cap, so there's time. Last year, Winston was released on March 13 (Just before the cap had to be complied with), and they waited until May 1 to let Jacoby go.

Regarding the restructures, (contract modifications reducing the current year salary cap hit, but having no negative financial impact to the player) you typically don't want to do these unless you have to. These type of restructures help out the current year, but come at a cost in future years, so generally you put the groundwork in place, but don't actually pull the trigger unless/until there's a specific reason to. Also (and this is only going from memory), the Texans have never really announced restructures, but it seems like the info regarding who restructured trickles out at some point down the road.

As far as releases and reductions in salary, there's no reason not to go ahead and do those, but unless you're over the cap (which it doesn't appear the Texans are), there's no reason to do them now other than to give the player the benefit of an early start on free agency. Also, there may be a strategic advantage to waiting until the last minute (perhaps even the final cut of the 2013 preseason) to tell the player to take a pay cut or be waived. The fewer options they have, the more likely they may be to accept a cut.

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So, I'm listening to 610, they just said after the money they set aside for the rookies, the Texans have $1.7M

How are we going to sign Glover, Connor, & James with only $1.7M?

March 12th is only 3 weeks away. Shouldn't we be hearing about contract restructures & player cuts by now? We're seeing other teams, the Jets specifically, making moves to free up money. Are we sitting on our thumbs or do you think Rick Smith is putting in overtime?

A suggestion, go to Spotrak and add up all the 2013 FAs 2012 salary; that gives you an estimate of savings. Most of them will not be back.*Note that many contracts will have escalators. Or use the info Dutchrudder gave in his sticky thread.

Keep in mind the $2.4m carry over; did the 610 guys include that? Numbers are all over the board because we don't know what each source is counting. IMO, Quin is the only one I expect to re-sign.

Also, we can restructure contracts as we did to sign D Brown, Matt Schaub and Foster.

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I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need

I would imagine there's negotiations going on behind the scenes - or will be shortly. Other than street free agents (guys who weren't under contract at the end of the 2012 season, or have been released since then), negotiations can't begin with free agents until March 9th, and no signings can take place before March 12th. The 12th is also the date by which teams have to be at or under the cap, so there's time. Last year, Winston was released on March 13 (Just before the cap had to be complied with), and they waited until May 1 to let Jacoby go.

Regarding the restructures, (contract modifications reducing the current year salary cap hit, but having no negative financial impact to the player) you typically don't want to do these unless you have to. These type of restructures help out the current year, but come at a cost in future years, so generally you put the groundwork in place, but don't actually pull the trigger unless/until there's a specific reason to. Also (and this is only going from memory), the Texans have never really announced restructures, but it seems like the info regarding who restructured trickles out at some point down the road.

As far as releases and reductions in salary, there's no reason not to go ahead and do those, but unless you're over the cap (which it doesn't appear the Texans are), there's no reason to do them now other than to give the player the benefit of an early start on free agency. Also, there may be a strategic advantage to waiting until the last minute (perhaps even the final cut of the 2013 preseason) to tell the player to take a pay cut or be waived. The fewer options they have, the more likely they may be to accept a cut.

“Not necessarily started the negotiations,” Texans general manager Rick Smith said Saturday, before he was honored at the Charlie Ward Tribute to Excellence event. “Obviously we’re in touch with all the agents and those guys know our intent is that we want to keep the players that are free agents. Those conversations will continue in Indianapolis and will continue after the combine as well.”

To clear up some cap space, you could see extensions to players like defensive end Antonio Smith or inside linebacker Brian Cushing, both of whom have contracts that expire after the 2013 season.

With the pushed back league year, these negotiations often start at the NFL Scouting Combine, a place where agents and general managers convene for a few days and can easily meet face-to-face.

per the article

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I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need

I didn't want to start a separate thread on this subject. I am by no means a master accountant, and some aspects of the cap have been difficult for me to comprehend. This article makes a concise and very simple to understand presentation of some fairly confusing points relating to salary, various types of bonuses, "guaranteed" money, "dead money," etc.

A suggestion, go to Spotrak and add up all the 2013 FAs 2012 salary; that gives you an estimate of savings. Most of them will not be back.*Note that many contracts will have escalators. Or use the info Dutchrudder gave in his sticky thread.

Keep in mind the $2.4m carry over; did the 610 guys include that? Numbers are all over the board because we don't know what each source is counting. IMO, Quin is the only one I expect to re-sign.

Also, we can restructure contracts as we did to sign D Brown, Matt Schaub and Foster.

Using the Over the Cap numbers here are the players, who if cut, would yield extra cap room:

Everyone else is 600,00 or is a bigger cap hit than savings. Based on this, I think Smith and Walter are near locks to get cut. That's $5.5 Million the team could use.

Antonio Smith is 6.0 million, but the Texans don't have a replacement for him. I would keep him for now. Andre Johnson is a must keep. Interestingly enough, after 2014, Andre Johnson if cut, actually saves $10.4 mill. If you cut him, that may be the time to do it. Cush is young and only nets 3.1 if cut: gotta keep and resign. Manning is only $2.5. However, if one of the younger safeties can step up next year his cap savings would be $4.5 million...that may be a good time to cut him. Owen Daniels cap savings would only yield $2.5. However, if they cut him next year, it jumps to 4.5. I think he's gone next year.

So in summary, I think Wade Smith and Walters are gone. If the Texans are desperate, they may cut Daniels too.

Everyone else is 600,00 or is a bigger cap hit than savings. Based on this, I think Smith and Walter are near locks to get cut. That's $5.5 Million the team could use.

Antonio Smith is 6.0 million, but the Texans don't have a replacement for him. I would keep him for now. Andre Johnson is a must keep. Interestingly enough, after 2014, Andre Johnson if cut, actually saves $10.4 mill. If you cut him, that may be the time to do it. Cush is young and only nets 3.1 if cut: gotta keep and resign. Manning is only $2.5. However, if one of the younger safeties can step up next year his cap savings would be $4.5 million...that may be a good time to cut him. Owen Daniels cap savings would only yield $2.5. However, if they cut him next year, it jumps to 4.5. I think he's gone next year.

So in summary, I think Wade Smith and Walters are gone. If the Texans are desperate, they may cut Daniels too.

Good info. As discussed, I see A Smith getting reworked to lower hit. Posey out, who replaces Walter? Any comments about releases AJ will lead to MB exploding but should be looked at IF we can get a replacement. That is the problem. I was hoping that was going to be Jean but...

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I want to be able to recognize the difference between a "want" and a "need" and then I want to be satisfied with getting a need

FINAL OFFICIAL NFL Cap for 2013 has been reported by both Ian Rapoport and Albert Breer of NFL Network: $123 million

The NFL has set the 2013 salary cap at $123.9 million, up from $120.6 million in 2012.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport initially reported the cap would be $123 million flat, but ESPN's Chris Mortensen says after accounting for league revenues, it gets a $900,000 bump. It's not a major spike, but it gives teams a little more breathing room than we were expecting. It could be the difference in keeping a veteran or signing a free agent.
Source: Chris Mortensen on Twitter Feb 28 - 7:12 PM

The NFL has set the 2013 salary cap at $123.9 million, up from $120.6 million in 2012.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport initially reported the cap would be $123 million flat, but ESPN's Chris Mortensen says after accounting for league revenues, it gets a $900,000 bump. It's not a major spike, but it gives teams a little more breathing room than we were expecting. It could be the difference in keeping a veteran or signing a free agent.
Source: Chris Mortensen on Twitter Feb 28 - 7:12 PM

Actually it seems to be $123.9M. Every penny counts.

Saw that........but things still remain confusing.

Florio of PFT reported this after initially reporting the Rapoport and Breer numbers:

Quote:

UPDATE 6:55 p.m. ET: Chris Mortensen of ESPN puts the number at $123.9 million. Which we like, since it meshes with our recent report that the number is expected to be more than $123 million. It translates to a 2.7-percent increase over last year.

Based on this, I think Smith and Walter are near locks to get cut. That's $5.5 Million the team could use.

So in summary, I think Wade Smith and Walters are gone. If the Texans are desperate, they may cut Daniels too.

Antonio Smith, Walter, and Wade Smith could get cut, but are just as or more likely to have their contracts extended or renegotiated. Wade Smith does not have a certain replacement. Neither does Antonio. Walter should see a replacement in free agency or the draft. But, he could accept another pay cut and remain. Daniels contract could easily be adjusted to free cap room. I don't see the cuts and free agent losses that were prevalent in the 2012 offseason.