Thursday, September 25, 2008

Worst MVP Winners of All-Time (AL)

Before I get started, I want to reiterate a few things. First, this isn’t a knock on the players who erroneously won MVPs. The vast majority of these players had great seasons worthy of recognition. They just didn’t deserve the MVP.

Second, I mentioned this in the “NL” piece but I’ll touch on it again because it’s a pretty important element to these posts: The MVP should be given to the best player in the league. There are a number of acceptable methods for tabulating the best player. No two baseball fans will emphasize the exact same statistics to come to their respective conclusions. That’s fine. However, it’s not fine to use an alternative interpretation of what “MVP” means. By definition, the MVP is the best player in baseball. How can someone be more valuable than the best player? No GM in their right mind would value a worse player more than the best player. So, if you’re a voter, figure out who you think the best player in the AL was by whatever measure you think is the best and vote for that player. For the love of Fred Merkle, please don’t simply pick a player from a playoff team as your primary means for voting. I realize that no actual voters will read this so if you could just pretend you’re a voter for the moment that would make the last few sentences exceedingly more relevant.

As for this post, the players most adversely affected by shoddy voting in the AL are Ted Williams, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Belle, and Al Kaline. Try not to get too “bent out of shape” when you’re reading this. I’m giving you fair warning that some of these are just mind-numbing and will make you question your fellow man.

Worst AL MVPs of All-Time(winners listed first)

2002

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Miguel Tejada

108

34

131

7

38

.862

128

336

Alex Rodriguez

125

57

142

9

87

1.015

158

389

Tejada’s MVP has to go down as one of the least deserving in MLB history. A-Rod destroyed Tejada in every category. Tejada won for two reasons; 1). He played for a playoff team and, 2). A-Rod was still dealing with the backlash from his $250 million contract. All of the Rangers failures were blamed on A-Rod for one reason or another. There was no chance he was going to win the MVP in ’02 even if he hit, like, 57 homeruns which he did.

2001

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Ichiro

127

8

69

56

30

.838

126

316

Jason Giambi

109

38

120

2

129

1.137

198

343

Ichiro had a very productive rookie season. It’s hard to argue, though, that he had a better season than Giambi. Even if Ichiro’s stolen base total is factored into total bases as the equivalent of a single, Giambi would still hold a sizeable advantage in OPS, 1.137 to .898. Ichiro won because he was a fresh face who did a few things extremely well (BA, SB, Runs, defense). Giambi was far more productive and probably would’ve won if seven voters didn’t think Bret Boone should’ve been the MVP. Giambi led the league in slugging %, OBP, OPS, doubles, walks, total bases, and runs created.

1998

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Juan Gonzalez

110

45

157

2

46

.996

149

382

Albert Belle

113

49

152

6

81

1.054

171

399

IMO, Albert Belle should be in the Hall of Fame. It’ll never happen but he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball for 12 seasons. His career was cut short by a degenerative hip condition. I don’t see how Belle’s case is any different than Kirby Puckett’s. Both played 12 years and Belle was a better player. One of the reasons why he won’t make the HOF is because nobody likes him. That also just happens to be why he didn’t win—or even come to winning—the ’98 AL MVP. His season was better than Juan Gonzalez’s across the board. Gonzalez actually won two MVPs that he shouldn’t have. The other was in 1996…

1996

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Juan Gonzalez

89

47

144

2

45

1.011

145

348

Alex Rodriguez

141

36

123

15

59

1.045

160

379

In his first full season, A-Rod should have won the MVP. He scored 52 more runs than Gonzalez, had a better OPS+ and had more total bases. He should have five MVPs as of 2008 but he only has three to show for it.

1995

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Mo Vaughn

98

39

126

11

68

.963

144

316

Edgar Martinez

121

29

113

4

116

1.107

185

321

Albert Belle

121

50

126

5

73

1.091

177

377

Belle should’ve won two MVPs. He finished second to Vaughn in ’95 despite having a much better season. Belle became the first player in MLB history with 50 home runs and 50 doubles in the same season. He led the AL in home runs, RBIs, runs, doubles, slugging %, and total bases. He had the most extra base hits in the American League since Lou Gehrig in 1927. His total of 103 extra base hits is the 6th best single season in MLB history.

1992

Player

ERA

ERA+

WHIP

Saves

Eck ‘90

.61

606

.61

48

Eck ‘92

1.91

196

.91

51

Eck had no business winning the MVP in ’92. If a closer is going to win an MVP, it has to be a truly unbelievable season like, say, Eck in ’90. His numbers in ’90 were out of the stratosphere. It’s ludicrous that he won the MVP in ’92 and not in ’90. A better way to put it would be if Eck didn’t win the MVP in ’90, he sure as heck shouldn’t have won in ’92. The MVP should’ve gone to either Big Mac, Big Hurt, or Kirby Puckett.

1981

Player

ERA

ERA+

WHIP

Saves

Rollie Fingers

1.04

332

.87

28

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Rickey Henderson

89

6

35

56

64

1.045

150

185

Henderson’s season totals don’t look that impressive but that’s because ’81 was a strike-shortened season. Rickey was on pace for 134 runs, 203 hits, 84 stolen bases, and 96 walks. The only reason Fingers won the award is because his numbers “looked” like full season numbers whereas Henderson’s don’t look impressive at all since 54 games weren’t played.. There’s no way Fingers wins the ’81 AL MVP if the season goes the full 162 games.

1979

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Don Baylor

120

36

139

22

71

.901

145

333

Fred Lynn

116

39

122

2

82

1.060

176

338

Baylor received 20 first place votes. Lynn received zero. Lynn led the AL in batting average, slugging %, OBP, OPS, and Runs Created. Lynn’s OPS+ dwarfed Baylor’s. Lynn also had more doubles, home runs, and total bases. It seems pretty clear to me that Lynn was the MVP in ’79.

1976

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Thurman Munson

79

17

105

14

29

.769

125

266

George Brett

94

7

67

21

49

.839

144

298

More times than not, catchers who win the MVP don’t deserve it. Brett was clearly the better player in ’76. He led the league in batting average, triples, total bases, hits, and runs created. Munson led the league in nothing.

1970

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Boog Powell

82

35

114

1

104

.961

163

289

Carl Yazstrzemski

125

40

102

23

128

1.044

177

335

Yaz not winning the ’70 AL MVP goes down as one of the worst votes in voting history. He pretty much destroyed Powell in every category. Yaz led the AL in slugging %, OBP, OPS, Runs, total bases, and runs created. Powell led the league in nothing.

1965

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Zoilo Versalles

126

19

77

27

41

.781

115

308

Tony Oliva

107

16

98

19

55

.869

141

283

There has always been a debate about what “MVP” actually means. Some think it means best player while others think it means best player on a good team. There really should be no confusion, though, when comparing two players from the same team. In that case, the award should obviously go to the player who had the better season. Mystifyingly, voters got in wrong in the 2000 NL vote and then again, in the 1965 AL vote. Versalles only had an OPS that was 15% better than the league average. That is one of the worst marks every by an MVP-winner.

1963

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Elston Howard

75

28

85

0

35

.970

140

257

Harmon Killebrew

88

45

96

0

72

.904

147

286

Al Kaline

89

27

101

6

54

.889

144

283

Howard won the AL MVP in ’63 because the Yankees made playoffs and the Tigers and Twins did not. Killebrew and Kaline had nearly identical numbers. Both would have been worthy MVPs. Howard—despite having a pretty good season—was not worthy of the MVP in ’63.

1961

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Roger Maris

132

61

142

0

94

.992

167

366

Mickey Mantle

132

54

128

12

126

1.135

206

353

It’s hard to argue that Maris should not have won the MVP during the year in which he broke Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record. In fact, I’m not going to argue too much about it. If it were up to me, Mantle would’ve won. His OPS+ of 206 was much, much better than Maris’s 167.

1959

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Nellie Fox

84

2

70

5

71

.769

114

243

Al Kaline

86

27

94

10

72

.940

151

271

When discussing Al Kaline’s MVP snubs, the question isn’t whether he should’ve won an MVP, rather, it’s how many should he have won? Kaline had as good a case as any in ’63. In ’59, he was clearly the best player in the AL. Nellie Fox won because the Chicago White Sox went to the playoffs. Kaline’s numbers are better in every statistic in the chart. It’s goofy things like Nellie Fox and Elston Howard winning the MVP when they shouldn’t that make Kaline one of the most underrated baseball players in history.

1958

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Jackie Jensen

83

35

122

9

99

.931

148

293

Mickey Mantle

127

42

97

18

129

1.035

188

307

There’s not a whole lot I can say that the chart doesn’t already make obvious. Mantle received zero first place votes. Ted Williams also had considerably better numbers and received zero first place votes.

1955

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Yogi Berra

84

27

108

1

60

.819

120

254

Al Kaline

121

27

102

6

82

.967

162

321

Instead of three MVPs, Al Kaline has zero. He should’ve won by a landslide in both ’55 and ’59.

1951

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Yogi Berra

92

27

88

5

44

.842

130

269

Ted Williams

109

30

126

1

144

1.020

165

295

Get used to seeing “Ted Williams” in this post. You’ll see his name a total of five times. It’s insulting to compare The Splendid Splinter’s numbers with Berra’s. They aren’t even remotely close. Williams had almost as many walks as Berra had hits!

1950

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Phil Rizzuto

125

7

66

12

92

.857

122

271

Larry Doby

110

25

102

8

98

.987

164

299

The Yankees, of course, won the AL Pennant so, by law, a Yankee had to win the MVP. If voters of the day were going to use the “best player on the best team” logic (which is more like the anti-MVP than the MVP) then they should at least give it to the right player. Rizzuto wasn’t even one of the top two Yankees. Joe DiMaggio and Yogi Berra would have actually been sane choices. Rizzuto? Not so much. Doby had better numbers than Rizzuto and he finished 8th! Berra probably deserved more in ’50 than he did in any of the three years in which he actually won it.

1948

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Lou Boudreau

116

18

106

3

98

.987

154

274

Ted Williams

124

25

127

4

126

1.112

189

313

Broken record.

1947

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Joe DiMaggio

97

20

97

3

64

.913

154

279

Ted Williams

125

32

114

0

162

1.133

205

335

Williams had three seasons in which he tallied an OPS+ of 200 or better without winning the AL MVP. He clobbered DiMaggio in ’47. There were clearly some shenanigans going on amongst the voters because Williams only lost by one point despite receiving five fewer first place votes. Oh yeah, he won the Triple Crown and had 162 walks too which was the second highest single-season total in baseball history at the time.

1942

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Joe Gordon

88

18

103

12

79

.900

155

264

Ted Williams

141

36

137

3

145

1.147

217

338

Williams’s OPS+ of 217 is the third highest total for a player who didn’t win the MVP. Williams failed to win in ’41 with a 235. Rogers Hornsby failed to win in ’24 with a 222. Clearly voters of the day were ignorant in a number of disciplines including math and logic. Williams had 87 more RBIs and Runs than Joe Gordon. He also had 66 more walks.

1941

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Joe DiMaggio

122

30

125

4

76

1.083

184

348

Ted Williams

135

37

120

2

147

1.288

235

335

Ted Williams has the highest single-season OPS+ total of any player to not win the MVP. Ted Williams is on this list five times. That means he should have won five more MVPs than he actually did. I don’t think that was a coincidence.

1937

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Charlie Gehringer

122

14

96

11

90

.978

144

293

Hank Greenberg

137

40

183

8

102

1.104

172

397

Joe DiMaggio

151

46

167

3

64

1.085

168

418

Lou Gehrig

138

37

159

4

127

1.116

177

366

What a race, huh? Gehrig, DiMaggio, Greenberg, and Gehringer. Gehringer had a good season but the other three had great seasons. I have no idea who I would’ve voted for. It’s a dead heat between DiMaggio, Gehrig, and Greenberg. For the second time in four years, a Detroit Tiger won the AL MVP without even being the best player on his team.

1934

Player

Runs

HR

RBIs

SB

BB

OPS

OPS+

TB

Mickey Cochrane

74

2

76

8

78

.840

117

180

Lou Gehrig

128

49

165

9

109

1.171

208

409

I don’t think the MVP voters had their #@%$ together in ’34. Gehrig’s OPS+ was nearly 100 points higher than Cochrane’s. He scored 54 more runs and drove in 89 more RBIs. The most egregious part of this debacle is that Gehrig only managed a fifth place finish. Three Detroit Tigers finished ahead of him in the voting. Ironically, Cochrane wasn’t even the best Tiger in ’34. That distinction went to Charlie Gehringer.

The 2008 AL MVP Race

The AL MVP race is crazy enough to make you dizzy a few times over. Midway through the season, it certainly appeared that Josh Hamilton was the run-away winner. Hamilton followed up his amazing 95-RBI performance in the first half with a puzzling 31-RBI effort in the second half. He’ll end up with very good numbers for the season but he probably won’t win the MVP. There is no way of knowing how voters are going to spread out their votes so it’s possible that Hamilton could win without getting many first place votes. I can see a scenario where voters can’t agree on who should win but do agree that Hamilton should be in the top three or four. A number of guys could win via that avenue. The more I look at the statistics, the more I’m compelled to give the nod to Justin Morneau. Hamilton and Morneau’s numbers are nearly identical. Both are worthy of winning the MVP. However, Morneau has two advantages: 1) His team (the Twins) is in the thick of the playoff race while Hamilton’s team is 21.5 games out; 2) Morneau was more consistent.

Look for Pedroia and Youkilis to split votes. I actually think either would be honorable choices considering how well Boston played this year without a healthy David Ortiz and the Manny Ramirez-fiasco. Cliff Lee is having one of the great statistical seasons of all-time. His team is terrible but winning 22 of his team’s 79 games makes him a). pretty damn good and b). pretty damn valuable. Aubrey Huff and Miguel Cabrera will finish with some of the best numbers in the league but both played for terrible teams and both started out slowly. They were out of the race by mid-season.

The player who was in position to win the AL MVP once Hamilton hit his wall was Carlos Quentin. He got hurt like every other White Sox player and his improbable run at the MVP was finished.