Orrin Hatch may not be a lock for Finance chairman
By: Manu Raju and Seung Min Kim
September 25, 2012 11:21 PM EDT

Sen. Orrin Hatch has made the pitch countless times to Utah voters: Send him back to Washington for another term, and he’ll become chairman of the mighty Senate Finance Committee.

But first, he may have to convince Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.

If Republicans win back the Senate in November, Grassley could seek the chairmanship of the panel that would be tasked with rewriting the Tax Code, overhauling entitlement programs and leading the charge to repeal the sweeping health care law.

While Grassley said in an interview that he’s leaning toward assuming the Judiciary Committee chairmanship instead, he refused to rule out a bid for the Finance Committee gavel that seemed all but certain to go to Hatch.

The Finance Committee intrigue is part of a larger scramble for power that’s already under way but will kick into high gear after the election. Senators are angling for plum committee chairmanships and seats in hopes of boosting their clout and capitalizing on their seniority.

Leadership jobs that serve as major steppingstones on the congressional career ladder are also open, though not the top positions: Sens. Harry Reid of Nevada and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky are planning to stay as the leaders of their respective caucuses no matter what. The open spots include running the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Jockeying has also begun for the Senate GOP whip spot, the No. 2 job, with Texas Sen. John Cornyn gaining the inside track.

And there’s no shortage of names in the mix for other top jobs.

Some senior Republicans privately hope that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio will make a bid for chairmanship of the NRSC, giving the influential committee significant star power for its efforts to raise and spend millions of dollars on behalf of Senate GOP candidates.

While Rubio said in an interview that he hadn’t thought about the possibility, he also wouldn’t rule it out.

“It’s just something I haven’t talked about with anyone yet — really,” he said.

Sen. Jerry Moran, the Kansas freshman, was open about his interest in the NRSC post. He was quick to downplay questions over whether he would have a hard time raising money since his state is hardly rife with mega-donors.

“I’m not seeing this as a steppingstone, but I have a genuine concern that the direction the country is going suggests it’s important who gets elected,” Moran said recently.

Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker have also been discussed as potential NRSC chiefs, but a spokeswoman for Barrasso said Tuesday that he wanted to stay put as chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee. Corker previously dismissed speculation he would take the job.

After serving two terms as NRSC chairman, Cornyn is currently running uncontested to replace Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl as the next Republican whip. But other challengers may emerge, such as South Dakota Sen. John Thune, who as Republican Conference chairman is now No. 3 on the GOP leadership chain.

In an interview, Thune said he has not made any decisions about the secret-ballot leadership races that will occur after the elections. Asked about Cornyn’s prospects, Thune said the Texas Republican would not have a tougher time winning the whip job if the GOP falls short of its goal to take back the Senate majority.

But “obviously, if we get the majority, and get solidly into the majority, it certainly I think improves the prospects for him to move into that position,” Thune said.

Democrats, meanwhile are looking for a successor to their DSCC chief, Washington Sen. Patty Murray.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand — a close ally of fellow New Yorker Sen. Chuck Schumer — is seen as a leading contender, even though an aide said she has “no plans” to lead the committee during the 2014 cycle.

Another junior female senator, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, is seen as a possible candidate, as are two men who passed on the offer for the 2012 cycle, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.

A spokeswoman for Klobuchar declined to comment, while a Bennet aide did not respond to questions. Whitehouse said last week he’d give the job “fair consideration” if he’s offered it.

The decision on the next DSCC chair is in the hands of Senate Majority Leader Reid. But some senators privately say they’re unsure of Reid’s intentions, especially if the Democrats lose the majority, given that he has served as Democratic leader since 2005 and his wife, Landra, is recovering from breast cancer.

If he steps down, Schumer would be the clear favorite to take the job, though Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin could mount a challenge. But Reid spokesman Jose Parra said Monday that the Nevada Democrat plans to remain as leader.

The fiercest jockeying is expected on the committee level. For Republicans, there is a six-year limit to serve as the ranking member of committees and a six-year limit as the chairman of a full panel. Democrats don’t have the same rules, so there’s far more turnover on the GOP side.

That means if Republicans stay in the minority, there could be significant turnover at the leadership level in the next Congress.

Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran, now the top Republican on the powerful Appropriations Committee, would be required to step aside, paving the way for Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby to take over. On tap to replace Shelby as the ranking member on the Banking Committee would be Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo. Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn would be next up to replace Maine Sen. Susan Collins as the top Republican on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Arizona Sen. John McCain would no longer be the top Republican on Armed Services, instead leaving that slot open for Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe. Louisiana Sen. David Vitter would be next in line to replace Inhofe as the ranking member on the Environment and Public Works panel. And Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi would have to give up the top GOP position on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, leaving that position to Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander.

If Democrats stay in the majority, new chairmen of key panels could emerge. Murray would be poised to take over the Budget Committee for retiring North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad while Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden would be next to lead the Energy and Natural Resources panel, replacing New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman. And Delaware Sen. Tom Carper would be atop the Homeland Security panel in place of outgoing Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman.

But if the chamber flips, most of the Republicans who are now ranking members will simply become chairmen of the full committees, giving them the power to set the panel’s agenda and shape legislation over issues ranging from defense to environmental policy. Tea party hero Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina would replace retiring Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison as head of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

The Finance Committee is a potential pickle for Republicans. While many expect Grassley to claim the Judiciary Committee gavel since he serves as ranking member now, he is not term-limited on the Finance Committee because he served as chairman of that panel for only four years.

Grassley could push for the Finance chairmanship for the next two years — and give up a guaranteed chairmanship of Judiciary of up to six years — if he wants to take the lead role on tax reform and other major issues the panel will face next Congress. Questions over whether that will occur are spreading outside Capitol Hill.

A recent memo by the lobbying firm Quinn Gillespie & Associates noted that there’s “considerable speculation” Grassley would seek the chairmanship because of the focus over tax reform in the next two years.

The two men haven’t spoken about the issue recently, but Hatch expressed confidence that Grassley wouldn’t challenge him for the spot, which would have to be approved by Republicans on the panel and then in a secret ballot election by the full GOP conference.