Saturday, November 10, 2012

The Week 10 NFL Picks - Part 2

Last week's 10-4 record could have been so much better if I had just made what now seems the obvious move and stayed away from the Bills, Chiefs and Cowboys. If you're going to lose, don't do it by betting on horses walking around the paddock with a noticeable limp* (and of course never play cards against a guy with the first name as a city).

We're going rapid fire on these so I can go watch Johnny Manziel run circles around Nick Saban's defense.** (In other words, I'm putting two stamps on this sucker and mailing it in).

Baltimore by 7.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Ravens

We have our winner for
nickname of the year.

This number seems a little high considering how the Ravens have been winning ugly and the fact that Carson Palmer used to carve them up on a regular basis when he was a Bengal but this is almost a must win for the Ravens who start a brutal stretch of games next week in Pittsburgh. If Cam Cameron calls fewer than 25 running plays for Ray Rice after what the Muscle Hamster did to the Raiders last week, I will be (a) annoyed, (b) chaffed, (c) unsurprised or (d) all of the above.***

Atlanta by 3 over New Orleans: The Pick - Saints
The Falcons haven't beaten anyone convincingly since the Chargers in week 3 and the Saints seem to be pulling it together with three wins in their last four games. You knew it was going to take some time for Sean Payton and the coaching staff to implement an effective in-game communication system.

Detroit by 2 over Minnesota: The Pick - Vikings

The Vikings generally beat the teams they should beat (Cardinals, Titans and Jags) and they've got two other solid wins against the 49ers and at Detroit. The Lions look like a slightly more polished version of talented train wreck teams like the Cowboys and the Eagles. A.P. will be the difference in this one and make everyone who picked him in the third round a little chestier than they already are.

Philadelphia by 2.5 over Dallas: The Pick - Cowboys

"Um coach, the game hasn't
started so technically there's
nothing to challenge yet."

Despite what I said earlier about the Cowboys, I'm still picking them because the Eagles have somehow managed to become more screwed-up than their NFC East rivals. Look for Jason Garrett to botch the clock management at the end of the first half and then Andy Reid to say "is that all you got?" and come over the top by using all of his timeouts in the third quarter and then running out of time at the end of the game with the Eagles down by 3.

Seattle by 6.5 over the N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Seahawks

Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, etc. This was never going to end any other way than badly was it? And if you're a dysfunctional team like the Jets, Seattle is probably the last place you want to visit these days. On the bright side, this is probably the last game of the pre-Tebow era in New York so the Jets are about to become the most relevant 6-10 team in NFL history.

San Francisco by 11.5 over St. Louis: The Pick - 49ers

The Niners are wearing-out bad teams this year having beaten the Bills, Cardinals and Jets by a combined score of 103-6. (There's a "wow" statistic). The Rams fit right in with that group so this is looking like a 24-6 kind of situation. In a related story, Sam Bradford has 8 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions and has been sacked 23 times. Pretty sure the Rams aren't trading down in the first round again this year.

Chicago by 1 over Houston: The Pick - Texans

The Bears are definitely on to
something with these new night
game cheerleader outfits.

The 41.5 over/under seems a little high as these defenses are ranked 2nd and 3rd in points allowed. I give a slight edge to the Bears D but that is more than made up for by Jay Cutler's tendency to drop major turd performances in big games on national television. Over/under on Cutler turnovers is 2.5 and I'm going over.

Pittsburgh by 12.5 over Kansas City: The Pick - Steelers

My second favorite team every week is the one playing the Steelers. In this case, however, that would make me a Chiefs fan which presents something of a dilemma because I don't want to be a Chiefs fan any more than Jerry Seinfeld wanted to be a pirate.

Last Week's Record: 10-4 . . . Season Record: 63-67-3Endnotes
* Based on that theory, I just changed my Jets pick. Imagine the horse with the limp being ridden by Rex Ryan.