03049cam a22003617 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001600070245019700086260006600283490004200349500001800391520031100409520050800720520041401228530006101642538007201703538003601775690012901811690007301940690008102013690009602094690010202190690008302292690007002375700002102445700002702466710004202493830007702535856003802612856003702650w11668NBER20150303185142.0150303s2005 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFehr, Hans.10aWill China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and Chinah[electronic resource] /cHans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J. Kotlikoff. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2005.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w11668 aOctober 2005.3 aThis paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal adjustments.3 aIn previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter.3 aChina eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE4 - Money and Interest Rates2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ1 - Demographic Economics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aJokisch, Sabine.1 aKotlikoff, Laurence J.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w11668.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1166841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11668