The Weinstein Company is playing it coy as it hedges its bets well into the season, cautiously xactlyntering the 2016 awards race after several consecutive Oscar years in which the mini-major failed to replicate its former gilded glory. Though it boasts a major contender in Garth Davis’ crowd-pleasing Lion, which seems likely to garner nominations for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman), and Best Supporting Actor (Dev Patel), the studio’s will-it-or-won’t-it Ray Kroc biopic, The Founder, has reportedly screened for journalists and SAG nominating committee members, and will be released to cinemas for an Oscar-qualifying run on Dec. 16.

The decision comes after months of shifting release dates, as the film was originally scheduled to debut in November, pushed up to August, then removed from the 2016 slate altogether in favor of a January, 2017 bow, only to reappear on Weinstein’s 2016 FYC page with no screenings scheduled as of Friday, Nov. 11.

Typically, juggling a film this late in the game (SAG balloting begins in six days) indicates a major problem, and director John Lee Hancock hasn’t proven himself to be a trusted voice in quality cinema (The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks didn’t exactly simmer well since showing up in their respective year’s Oscar conversation), so there’s reason to believe The Founder, which follows Kroc’s rise from struggling salesman status to an overnight success as the man behind McDonald’s ascension as the most successful fast food operation in the world, won’t stack up to December’s crop of heavy-hitters like Jackie, La La Land, 20th Century Women, Silence, or Toni Erdmann.

Weinstein could also be making a calculated move to drum up interest in the secretive project, which also stars Laura Dern, Linda Cardellini, Patrick Wilson, Nick Offerman, John Carroll Lynch, and B.J. Novak. It failed to appear at any fall festivals, which usually spells disaster for a late-breaking December release — especially in a year when early visibility is key to staking a claim amid a month filled with mainstay competitors.

The film could, however, be brilliant, and Weinstein might plan to spring the film into an already steadfast mix, hoping to take advantage of being, potentially, an exciting flavor-of-the-moment that’s strong enough to give voters a dose of unexpected excitement in the latter stages of the awards race. Judging by the film’s six-month-old trailer, Keaton gives a solid performance, one that could earn him a second nomination for his third awards-bound film (he comes off starring in two consecutive Best Picture winners) in an atypically barren Best Actor arena, one which Denzel Washington (Fences) is likely to steamroll.

THR’s Scott Feinberg seems to think the film has a shot at breaking through a contentious group of films vying for Oscar attention.

“I finally was shown The Founder this week,” he wrote. “[It’s apparent] Weinstein Co. has confidence in the film’s prospects, and I can report that it’s not only not bad, but is so good that it may be a serious contender, after all.”

He continued: “[The film’s success is] largely because of Keaton. Coming off of his performances in 2014’s Birdman and 2015’s Spotlight, he gives a performance in the same league as the ones he gave in those films (he personally was nominated for the former but snubbed for the latter). He has plenty of screen time, too, appearing in every scene, and convincingly capturing the sheer force-of-will that propelled Kroc, so TWC should be able to make a strong case for him in what’s looking like a weak year for the best actor Oscar.”

Weinstein’s Lion, however, seems to be their safest bet for capturing Oscar attention, at least on paper, as it quietly (but surely) builds up an identity as an under-the-radar people-pleaser, one that previously contended as a runner-up for the TIFF People’s Choice Award in September (seeing the film in a crowded theater of a tear-stricken public, I wasn’t surprised).

Weinstein has a robust FYC screening schedule planned for the film, which could wind up scoring director Garth Davis scoring a Best Director nomination, occupying the dark horse slot previously occupied by the likes of Lenny Abrahamsson (Room) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) in years past.

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Once, when he was three, Joey Nolfi fancied himself as an exotic type and boldly told someone that he was “from North America.” He’s taken that status as self-appointed ambassador of the North American people and built with it a budding career in entertainment journalism. In other words: he’s written about awards season, film, pop culture, and the arts for a variety of publications including Entertainment Weekly, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, AFROPUNK, East End Fashion Magazine, and Naima Mora Online. He also acts, makes films, moonlights as a DJ/general nightlife legend, and can’t wait for the day that his friends have children that he can to take to the zoo one time and then spend the rest of his life patting himself on the back for it.

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Editor-in-Chief Joey Nolfi sifted through 87 years of Best Picture winners to come up with a formula that gauges Oscar traction. He ranked the films heading into this year's race, so you should check it out.

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RT @joeynolfi: AND ALSO Happy Presidents’ Day to President Natalie Portman at the end of Mars Attacks https://t.co/NrJGzYnAYh