>> Thursday, December 15, 2011

Hope you're enjoying the springlike weather over the past couple of days! Probably doesn't feel like the holidays too much though. Things will be changing though as we head into the weekend. That front we talked about earlier in the week is moving very slow, and frankly not looking that impressive at all. Eventually though it will begin to move east during the day on Friday. As that happens look for showers to move into the area.

Most of the rain should be in the afternoon, but overall I don't expect to see tremendous rainfall totals out of this system. The big story will be the temperature swing behind the front. You're going to go from the mid 60s ahead of this sytem . . . to highs only in the low 50s by Saturday and Sunday.

We may be looking at a strong system affecting the area by the middle of next week but that is still a little up in the air. Have a great afternoon!

>> Tuesday, December 13, 2011

No change to the overall thinking over the next several days about what will be affecting your weather. As we talked about yesterday the big trough and storm system is rolling on shore today into southern California. As that happens it is forcing a ridge to develop over the eastern half of the country. Take a look at the NAM 500mb model for Wednesday evening.

Now again this is for tomorrow evening. First thing you notice is that the trough begins to open up. You don't have that closed 'circle' over the southwest like we had in the image I posted yesterday. That indicates the system will not be as strong as it moves east.

Secondly, note the large area of clock-wise flow in the southeastern US. That is a large ridge of high pressure with above normal temps for much of the region. Now at the surface a slight wedge will be present, so you won't see extreme warmth, but you will see some low 60s over the next couple of days.

So with that in mind we'll keep it mild through most of the week. As this system progresses east with a cold front, you will probably see some rain by Friday and Friday night. Yes I said rain. You won't be seeing any snow with this system as the cold air won't move in til behind the front. We'll talk more about the rain chances over the next couple of days. Have a great Tuesday!

>> Monday, December 12, 2011

Hey everybody . . . back in for Matthew this morning as he takes a little vacation with the family. Sorry this is a bit later than he usually posts. I'm on central time here so it's hard for me to get that up earlier! Anyway, hope everybody had a great weekend. Pretty quiet week on tap actually over the next several days. Here's a look at the NAM model run at 500 mb for this evening . . . That's a massive trough and storm system moving onto California today. Going to bring some heavy rain around the 4 Corners area. However if you look to the east of that . . . not a whole lot out there. Little disturbance rolling through the area this morning with some clouds, and that's about it. So basically we're going to be under a fairly nice ridge for the next several days. This will mean temperatures warming through the middle of the week. Now anybody looking for cold weather for the season or snow is going to be out of luck, but it should be pretty nice.

So with that in mind the forecast calls for warmer weather starting tomorrow. Look for a chilly day today with some upper 40s for highs, but then we're back into the upper 50s to low 60s for the next few days, and maybe even some mid 60s by Thursday. Rain chances will also be pretty non-existent through Thursday it looks like. Hope you're able to enjoy it!