China

"Withdrawal of monetary accommodation would also accentuate the problem of a strong USD, uncover geopolitical complacency, and remove the lid from market volatility. In fact, our view is that further withdrawal of monetary accommodation would likely lead to turmoil in financial markets."

UK failed to measure huge imports of gold coins and bars after Brexit vote. Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world is £6 billion larger than previously thought — and at a record high — because the nation’s bean counters made a mistake in their sums.

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.

"The rich will pay what they need to escape harassment; the rest will suffer." Global financial repression picks up steam, led by India. After declaring large denomination notes illegal, India now targets gold. It’s not just gold bars or bullion. The government has raided houses, no questions asked, confiscating jewelry.

It appears that devaluing your currency against by over 10% in a year against your major trading partners does have some affect (albeit delayed). China Exports (in Yuan terms) grew at 5.9% in November (the fastest growth since March) (well ahead of the expected 1% decline). Imports, however, also soared (by 13%) in Yuan terms. However, in USD terms, Imports rose by the most since Sept 2014 (and exports managed a small rise) as China's trade surplus slipped and missed expectations. Offshore Yuan is strengthening modestly on the print.

"We continue to see obvious re-risking in the form of “buy everything” price-action, as investors push further out onto the risk curve against a shift away from the 5+ year narrative of “secular stagnation” towards positioning that allows capture of “reflation animal spirits.”

Trump has picked Iowa Governor Terry Branstad as the next U.S. ambassador to China, choosing a longstanding friend of Beijing after rattling the world's second-largest economy by speaking to Taiwan's president. Earlier in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang called Branstad an "old friend" of China when asked about a report on the appointment.

Overnigt China disclosed that, as expected, FX reserve liquidation has spiked with reserves falling by nearly $70 billion last month as the country’s central bank burned through more of its reserves in the fight to defend the renminbi from greater depreciation on the back of accelerating capital outflows. This was the largest decline since January.

"After a year in which reality has managed to surpass even seemingly unlikely calls, 2017 may be a wakeup call which sees a real departure from the 'business as usual'..." Will this be the year when China exceeds growth expectations, Brexit turns into Bremain, the Mexican peso soars and Italian banks turn out to the best performing equity asset class?