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NBA Picks

NBA Picks: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs in Game 5

The
Blazers avoided the sweep in Game 4, and now they face elimination once again, but
now on the road. The NBA Odds seem to think the Spurs will handle the Blazers
here, but with the adjustments made by Portland, could the Spurs be in danger?

French on French CrimeThe
Spurs looked like they were about to sweep the Blazers, however a key
adjustment by the Blazers really hurt the Spurs last game. While it seemed
simple and desperate, it turned out to be a huge contributing factor to the
Blazers' win on Monday night. However even after that impressive win, the NBA
Odds are favoring the Spurs by -8 at home, with a total of 208 ½.

The big
switch Portland made was sending the long and athletic, Nicholas Batum to guard
his fellow countryman, Tony Parker. Not only was it effective, but also it
really threw off the Spurs offense, because Batum’s length and agility was able
to counter Parker’s quickness. However, while it was an extremely crafty move
by Terry Stotts, he is going up against the king of all adjustments, Gregg
Popovich.

If
indeed the Blazers go back to putting Batum on Parker in Game 5, Popovich will
have that problem solved. Even doing it in Game 4 had some consequences. For
starters, it forced Wesley Matthews to defend Kahwi Leonard. This isn’t a bad
mismatch, but Leonard did have another good game, and Matthews is not long or
quick enough to stay with Leonard in the post.

However
it allowed Damian Lillard to only have to chase around Danny Green, and that
led to Lillard finally breaking out and scoring 25 points in this game. However
as I mentioned above, I think I know what Pop will do to counter the move by
Stotts to put Batum on Parker.

The Sharp PickThe
problem with the Spurs is that not only are they experienced, but they are
younger and deeper than they have been in a while. They could even be deeper
than they were last season, and with all that depth comes options. Assuming
Batum starts on Parker again, if I were Popovich, I would immediately pull
Green from the game, insert Marco Belinelli or Manu Ginobli, and put the ball
in their hands. This would move Parker off the ball, and it would either force
the Blazers to switch back, or it would just force Lillard to have to start
defending on the ball again.

Lillard
is a lot of great things, but the glaring problem with his game at this young
stage of his career is he is not a great on-ball defender. If the Spurs force
that matchup and make him defend a ball handler, it will not only limit his offensive
upside, but it could get the Spurs’ offense going at home in Game 5.

Before
they got that win in Game 4 SU and ATS, the Blazers had lost seven straight
playoff games ATS, and I think they’ll go back to losing this one in San Antonio.
Since 2012, the Spurs are 30-22 ATS when coming off of a loss in the regular
season and the playoffs. San Antonio is also a very respectable 18-14 ATS in
the playoffs since last season. I’m laying the points here.