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One of the things about being a leader is that the crises don’t always come sequentially. It would be great if, today, political leaders could confront the economic crisis of the eurozone as the rest of the world stayed calm. But it is at this very time that the Middle East and beyond is also in a state of turmoil. Both crises are really tough; both require active engagement to overcome them.

The arrival of a Muslim Brotherhood president in Egypt completes an extraordinary process of change and will naturally be accompanied by mixed emotions. Some will see in it a chance for Egyptians to escape the old era and its ways. Others will fear what a political party that is avowedly religious in motivation and doctrinal content will do.

But all over the region we are in the grip of a revolution profound in its implications and continuing in its radical transformation. Out has gone the uneasy and often repressive stability of the old; and in has come the unpredictable instability of the new.

To Egypt, add Tunisia, Libya and Yemen; unrest in Bahrain; tension in Lebanon; a more gentle but still uncertain stand-off in Kuwait. And of course, Syria. And Iran. What is happening is an upheaval whose beginning we know but did not foresee; and whose end we do not know and is unforeseeable.

One thing, however, is for sure. It has huge consequences for us in the West. This is not just about oil and energy. In the medium and long term, the US, in particular, is reducing drastically its dependence on the Middle East. Europe will follow suit. But the security issues alone, arising out of this upheaval, are momentous.

So my point is very simple: we have to have a clear policy and strategy with which to confront this challenge. We have to recognise our interests are dramatically engaged and respond accordingly.

In my view, this means four things. First, where there has already been revolutionary change, we should have a policy of engagement, plus challenge.

If, as seems likely, Muslim Brotherhood governments continue to emerge, we have to accept the result and work with them. But we should do so with no illusions and without abrogating our responsibility to argue the case for true democracy. The best judgment is that the Muslim Brotherhood covers a range of different positions, some a lot more open than others. But the fact is that unless the Brotherhood adjusts and reforms, some of its positions, in some places, are going to be incompatible with progress, possibly with peace.

So we should be very clear: democracy is not just a way of voting but a way of thinking. It includes not just the freedom to vote but freedom of expression, media and religion. It is pluralistic in its essence.

Modern economies require education systems that encourage the open mind; predictable rules of doing business; and a willingness to treat all people of whatever gender, race and faith equally. These principles need to be stood up for, advocated; and where not followed or at risk, we should challenge, not concur.

Remember that in Egypt, yes, the Muslim Brotherhood won a majority. But the outcome was close. There are a lot of worried liberal-minded people there who believe in more secular democracy as we do in the West. They shouldn’t be forgotten.

Second, where there has not been revolution, we should actively promote evolution. People often say: learn the lesson of Iraq. Actually, I have. It is not that we leave a brutal dictatorship in power. But it is that when the lid comes off a society in this part of the world, run with an iron grip, there is an outpouring of religious, ethnic and tribal forces of disruption that make the pathway to the future very hard to navigate.

So even in Syria, where there is understandable fury at the appalling loss of life among innocent civilians, where revolution now seems the only option, we should reflect that evolution would have been far better because of the uncertainty of the aftermath of Assad’s departure.

The Middle East is not Eastern Europe. The elements in play are different and infinitely more complex. So where we can help countries in a process of steady evolutionary change, we should do so. Sometimes it isn’t possible. But where it is, we should support it actively.

Third, disregard those who say that because of this spirit of revolution, the Israeli-Palestinian issue no longer counts. It counts. Resolution of it remains as crucial as ever.

I have just returned from my 86th visit to the region since finishing as PM. From my office in Jerusalem I see first-hand the deep nature of this conflict, and the challenge of creating the only solution that works: an Israel secure and recognised by the region, and a viable independent State of Palestine.

This dispute is of fundamental importance to the people of the region. As I write, we are trying to inject new momentum into peace talks. Believe me, if we fail, it will impact on us immediately and adversely. Israelis need a neighbourhood of peace; Palestinians need justice for their people. As I learned in Northern Ireland, however difficult, we have to keep at it.

Fourth, I also see in Jerusalem the overwhelming importance of religion to this region. I have begun an organisation dedicated to improving knowledge, understanding and respect between the great faiths precisely because a wrong and closed-minded view of faith has the capacity to wreak havoc, particularly at a time of revolution.

There is a tendency among politicians to treat issues of religion as if they were really issues of politics. They aren’t. They are religious. They have big political consequences, of course. But the politics is derived from religion, not the other way round. A closed-minded view of religion is pumped out from sections of the Middle East to that region and the world. There is no real organised counter argument. It is time to organise.

I am a long-term optimist about the change in the Middle East. But short-term, the challenge is big. Watch the video of a senior Brotherhood cleric preaching at a rally during the campaign in Egypt a few weeks ago (virtually unreported in the West). I long since learned to discount rhetoric in an election campaign to party activists. But I learned not to ignore it, either.

So we have to be engaged in this struggle over the region. We’re busy enough with our economic woes. But this challenge is equally daunting and equally urgent.